climate_bot_train
Is a mandate for electric production to come from renewable sources in effect?
and there is ongoing interest in a "national renewable electricity standard" res which would mandate that a given share of an electric company's production come from renewable sources most likely wind power or, in the case of a "clean energy standard" ces from an expanded list including nuclear and hydroelectric power
How wide ranging are climate policies across the United States?
as of 2010, climate policies were being contemplated, developed, or implemented by more than half of the 50 states
What kind of energy standards have been implemented in just under half the US?
at latest count, 30 states have implemented res or ces programs
outside of the clean air act, there is support in congress and the administration for increasing the stringency of federal motor vehicle fuel efficiency standards so-called corporate average fuel economy or cafe standards and there is ongoing interest in a "national renewable electricity standard" res which would mandate that a given share of an electric company's production come from renewable sources most likely wind power or, in the case of a "clean energy standard" ces from an expanded list including nuclear and hydroelectric power. at the state level, there is considerable climate policy activity as well. as of 2010, climate policies were being contemplated, developed, or implemented by more than half of the 50 states. at latest count, 30 states have implemented res or ces programs. the coexistence of federal and state policies raises important questions about how these policies will interact. in the presence of federal policies, to what extent will state efforts be cost effective? and how does the coexistence of stateand federal-level policies affect the ability of state efforts to achieve emissions reductions beyond those implied by federal policy?
What was Jim Haywood thanked for?
we thank jim haywood for the aerosol forcing pdf
Where was Jonathan Gregory supported?
jonathan gregory was supported at the university of reading by the national centre for atmospheric science and at the met office by the integrated climate programme, ga01101 (defra) and cbc/2b/0417 annex c5 (mod
Who provided support for this data set?
support for this data set is provided by the office of science, u.s. department of energy
acknowledgments. we thank jim haywood for the aerosol forcing pdf, sarah raper for the ipcc tar time series, reto knutti, peter stott, gabi hegerl, and gareth jones for useful discussions and comments, and the referees for their reviews, which all helped to improve the paper. jonathan gregory was supported at the university of reading by the national centre for atmospheric science and at the met office by the integrated climate programme, ga01101 (defra) and cbc/2b/0417 annex c5 (mod). we thank the modeling groups, the program for climate model diagnosis and intercomparison (pcmdi), and the wcrp's working group on coupled modeling for their roles in making available the wcrp cmip3 multimodel data set. support for this data set is provided by the office of science, u.s. department of energy.
What is one important reason for the differences in the global emissions estimates reviewed in the study?
therefore, a large part of the differences in the three global emission estimates reviewed here aardenne et al., 2005; borken et al., 2007; fulton and eads, 2004 can be traced back to differences in technologies assumed
Why did Ardenne et al. have high estimates for emissions?
for instance, aardenne et al. (2005) are bound to have high emission estimates as they use emission factors average for 1995 technologies
Why did the developing countries of Asia see the biggest difference in values?
the biggest differences in values are for the region of developing asia, comprising china, india and the growing south east asian economies. this region has undergone a very rapid development in road transport volume and increase in vehicle stock
vehicle emissions of air pollutants strongly depend on the exhaust emission control devices and their operation ef fi ciency in a given year. this needs a careful characterisation of the technical characteristics of the fl eet in a given year. therefore, a large part of the differences in the three global emission estimates reviewed here aardenne et al., 2005; borken et al., 2007; fulton and eads, 2004 can be traced back to differences in technologies assumed. for instance, aardenne et al. (2005) are bound to have high emission estimates as they use emission factors average for 1995 technologies. these do not capture the important tightening of emission controls in many industrialised countries. 2.1.6. uncertainties the biggest differences in values are for the region of developing asia, comprising china, india and the growing south east asian economies. this region has undergone a very rapid development in road transport volume and increase in vehicle stock. therefore the state for the year 2000 is dif fi cult to estimate. furthermore, vehicle
What is Hendrix Cullen college background?
1977, phd in political science (university of california, san diego, 2008); assistant professor, department of political science, university of north texas (2008-11); assistant professor, department of government, college of william mary (2011- 
What are his main interests?
main research interests: environmental politics, political economy, and conflict
What are  IDEAN SALEHYAN main interests?
main research interests: civil and international war, international migration, and environmental security
cullen s hendrix, b. 1977, phd in political science (university of california, san diego, 2008); assistant professor, department of political science, university of north texas (2008-11); assistant professor, department of government, college of william mary (2011- ); main research interests: environmental politics, political economy, and conflict; articles in journal of peace research political geography and biological reviews idean salehyan, b. 1978, phd in political science (university of california, san diego, 2006); assistant and associate professor, department of political science, university of north texas (2006- ); main research interests: civil and international war, international migration, and environmental security; author of rebels without borders: transnational insurgencies in world politics (cornell university press, 2009).
What is of major importance for the population dynamics of birds?
weather is of major importance for the population dynamics of birds
What have only recently begun to be addressed?
the implications of climate change have only recently begun to be addressed
What have been affected by recent climate changes?
birds have been affected by recent climate changes
weather is of major importance for the population dynamics of birds, but the implications of climate change have only recently begun to be addressed. there is already compelling evidence that birds have been affected by recent climate changes. this review suggests that although there is a substantial body of evidence for changes in the phenology of birds, particularly of the timing of migration and of nesting, the consequences of these responses for a species' population dynamics is still an area requiring in-depth research. the potential for phenological miscuing (responding inappropriately to climate change, including a lack of response) and for phenological disjunction (in which a bird species becomes out of synchrony with its environment) are beginning to be demonstrated, and are also important areas for further research. the study of climatically induced distributional change is currently at a predictive modelling stage, and will need to develop methods for testing these predictions. overall, there is a range of intrinsic and extrinsic factors that could potentially inhibit adaptation to climate change and these are a high priority for research. the impact of weather on the population biology of birds has been a major field of study by ornithologists over the past half century. it has featured prominently in reviews of the subject since lack's seminal books
Who is the biggest  producer of greenhouse gases in the transport sector?
the major contributor is road freight which typically accounts for just under half of the road transport total
Why is aviation is much more environmentally damaging?
this is due to other greenhouse gases being released directly into the upper atmosphere, where the localised effects can be more damaging then the effects of co2 alone
Besides road transport, who is the biggest contributor to climate change?
away from road transport, the biggest contributor to climate change is aviation
iea, 2000 ), of which roughly two-thirds originates in the wealthier 10% of countries lenzen et al., 2003 ). road transport is the biggest producer of greenhouse gases in the transport sector, although the motor car is not solely responsible for all these emissions fig. 2 b). buses, taxis and inter-city coaches all play a significant role, but the major contributor is road freight which typically accounts for just under half of the road transport total. away from road transport, the biggest contributor to climate change is aviation. aviation is much more environmentally damaging than is indicated solely by co2 emission figures. this is due to other greenhouse gases being released directly into the upper atmosphere, where the localised effects can be more damaging then the effects of co2 alone cairns and
Is economic research opposed?
the strategy of strong and urgent reductions in greenhouse gas (ghg) emissions
according to the text, what, in fact, is a good economy?
strong and urgent action
what are the two crucial questions?
risk and ethics
economic research that opposes the strategy of strong and urgent reductions in greenhouse gas (ghg) emissions, such as the contributions in this issue by robert mendelsohn [citation-publisher will insert] and by john weyant [citation-publisher will insert], usually makes a distinction between scientists, environmentalists, politicians and others who favour strong action, and economists, who apparently do not. drawing on the stern review on the economics of climate change (stern, 2007), this paper shows that strong and urgent action is in fact good economics. much of the previous economic literature on climate change has failed to grasp the necessary scale and timing of action (notable exceptions include cline, 1992, and azar and sterner, 1996), because it has failed to simultaneously assign the necessary importance to issues of risk and ethics the case for strong and urgent action set out in the review is based, first, on the severe risks that the science now identifies (together with the additional uncertainties2 that it raises but that are difficult to quantify) and, second, on the ethics of the responsibility of current generations for future generations. it is these two issues--risk and ethics--that are crucial.
Who oversees the operation of the St. Lawrence River Hydropower Project?
the international joint commission (ijc) oversees operation of the st. lawrence river hydropower project
Write the objectives of St. Lawrence River Hydropower Project?
the objective was to explore options that would benefit affected interests reliant on collective system resources and would conform to the requirements of the boundary waters treaty
Write the three optional plans evaluated to the criteria of water project?
the optional control plans were evaluated relative to three criteria: (1) support the ecological integrity of the system, (2) maximize net benefits including both economic and environmental benefits, and 3) minimize disproportionate losses.11
the international joint commission (ijc) oversees operation of the st. lawrence river hydropower project. current operations of this water resources system are conducted according to plan d-19\\x048, which consists of rules for making weekly releases from lake ontario that vary based on lake inflows and levels, time of year, ice conditions, ottawa river flows, and other factors. plan d-19\\x048 was developed relative to hydroclimate observations collected during 1860-19\\x044. in response to interest in understanding whether the water control plan should be modernized (for example, to better accommodate changing social objectives related to environmental management or recreational boating), the ijc called for the development of plan information on criteria and options for regulating lake ontario water levels and outflow to the st. lawrence river (fig. c-1). the objective was to explore options that would benefit affected interests reliant on collective system resources and would conform to the requirements of the boundary waters treaty. the optional control plans were evaluated relative to three criteria: (1) support the ecological integrity of the system, (2) maximize net benefits including both economic and environmental benefits, and 3) minimize disproportionate losses.11
Why is our ability to predict the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems limited?
however, our ability to predict reliably the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems is limited by an inadequate understanding of the potential of marine organisms to adapt to rapid climate change
What approaches are increasingly being used to establish if genetic variation to climate change exists within populations?
modern molecular approaches are increasingly being used to establish if genetic variation to climate change exists within populations and identify the likely physiological pathways involved
What will have highly significant and widespread impacts on marine ecosystems over coming decades?
increasing ocean temperatures and decreasing ph will have highly significant and widespread impacts on marine ecosystems over coming decades
a major research effort over the past decade has demonstrated that many marine organisms living under current day conditions are sensitive to projected future environmental conditions. however, our ability to predict reliably the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems is limited by an inadequate understanding of the potential of marine organisms to adapt to rapid climate change. we argue that a greater emphasis on testing the evolutionary potential of marine organisms is essential to understand the likely impacts of climate change on marine populations and to improve predictions about the effects of climate change on marine ecosystems more broadly. both phenotypic plasticity and genetic adaptation will be important in adaptive response to future climate change in the sea, and the potential for both must be estimated to understand evolutionary potential. importantly, phenotypic plasticity may help populations persist in the short-term, which could buy time for genetic adaptation to progress in the longer term. phenotypic plasticity is likely to be especially important for the persistence of species with relatively long generation times. estimating the full potential for phenotypic plasticity in marine organisms will require multigenerational experiments that capture the potential for developmental and transgenerational plasticity. long-term experiments are increasingly being used to test for plasticity within life-stages. however, future research needs also to consider the potential for environmental conditions experienced by previous generations, and during early development, to alter the response of individuals to environmental conditions predicted under climate change scenarios. while the geological record and current-day analogues can provide tantalising glimpses into the effects of climate change over evolutionary time scales, we suggest that quantitative genetic approaches and experimental evolution hold the greatest prospects for predicting the capacity for genetic adaptation of most marine species over the timescales relevant to anthropogenic climate change. diallel breeding designs and fragmentation studies are particularly well suited to estimating heritable phenotypic variation in many marine organisms and offer a powerful approach to explore the potential capacity for adaptation to keep pace with a rapidly changing environment. experimental evolution studies are another powerful way to examine evolutionary responses to rapid climate change, and are particularly well suited to marine microorganisms. modern molecular approaches are increasingly being used to establish if genetic variation to climate change exists within populations and identify the likely physiological pathways involved. ultimately, the combination of several approaches (e.g. quantitative genetics and genomics, or experimental evolution and genomics) will provide the greatest inferential power by linking pattern and process in predicting evolutionary potential or explaining realised evolutionary change. while we advocate an evolutionary perspective, it must be recognised that evolutionary potential is not a panacea for the widespread impacts of anthropogenic climate change. increasing ocean temperatures and decreasing ph will have highly significant and widespread impacts on marine ecosystems over coming decades. nevertheless, our ability to predict the extent of these impacts will be greatly improved by embracing an evolutionary perspective to the problem. an increased understanding of evolutionary processes will also assist in making decisions about the management of marine resources that offer the best opportunity for their sustainability into the future.
What is the climate of MNEs?
applying the framework to mes' climate activities a closer look at mnes' climate activities first shows, as might have been expected in view of their climate impact, that particularly mnes in the oil and gas, automotive and electric utility industries are developing climate-induced fsas
Define FSAs?
the currently prevailing technological fsas of these industries are the main source of carbon emissions, because they rely on the combustion of fossil fuels
Fossil fuels draw many manufacturing industries?
but as fossil fuels also comprise an important part of the production process of many other manufacturing industries (e.g. chemicals, steel, and electronics), climate-induced fsa development is not restricted to mnes that produce cars, oil and gas, or electricity
applying the framework to mes' climate activities a closer look at mnes' climate activities first shows, as might have been expected in view of their climate impact, that particularly mnes in the oil and gas, automotive and electric utility industries are developing climate-induced fsas. the currently prevailing technological fsas of these industries are the main source of carbon emissions, because they rely on the combustion of fossil fuels. but as fossil fuels also comprise an important part of the production process of many other manufacturing industries (e.g. chemicals, steel, and electronics), climate-induced fsa development is not restricted to mnes that produce cars, oil and gas, or electricity.
What have some studies suggested that recent declines in Pacific steelhead populations are related to?
the increased frequency of winter storms and summer droughts observed during the 1980s and 1990s
Although most of the recent literature on the Pacific coast focuses on salmon, what would climate change have implications for?
other types of fish
What will changing marine conditions have implications for?
sustainable harvests, fishing practices and subsistence fisheries
pressure index.(32, 33)other studies have suggested that recent declines in pacific steelhead populations are related to the increased frequency of winter storms and summer droughts observed during the 1980s and 1990s.(34)these extreme events may have impacted salmon survival and production through habitat disruption and loss. it is important to note that, although most of the recent literature on the pacific coast focuses on salmon, climate change would have implications for other types of fish. groundfish and shellfish are both important economically to the region, with landed values in 1998 of $115.8 million and $94.9 million respectively.(4)changing marine conditions will have implications for sustainable harvests, fishing practices and subsistence fisheries.
What is a climate impact assessment an extension of?
a (climate) vulnerability assessment is an extension of a (climate) impact assessment
What is the main novelty of second-generation vulnerability assessments?
the main novelty of second-generation vulnerability assessments is the more thorough assessment of the adaptive capacity of people, thus shifting the focus from potential to feasible adaptation
What does Figure 4 depict?
figure 4 depicts the framework for a first-generation vulnerability assessment
a (climate) vulnerability assessment is an extension of a (climate) impact assessment. we distinguish between two generations of (climate) vulnerability assessments. the step from climate impact assessment to first-generation vulnerability assessment is characterized primarily by the evaluation of climate impacts in terms of their relevance for society and by the consideration of potential adaptation. the main novelty of second-generation vulnerability assessments is the more thorough assessment of the adaptive capacity of people, thus shifting the focus from potential to feasible adaptation. figure 4 depicts the framework for a first-generation vulnerability assessment. compared to figure 3, a number of components have been added.
What is one of the most widespread hydrometeorological hazards?
flooding
What risks do floods pose to health?
flooding can increase exposure to toxins and pathogens, may have implications for mental health, and can disrupt the capacity of health care systems to respond to health crises
How may the future health burden from floods alter?
if climate change acts as a driver of change in flooding
the threat of changes in the pattern and intensity of hydrometeorological hazards has served to highlight how little we yet know of their implications for human health. it is not just that predicting future health challenges is difficult, but that, until recently, there has been a paucity of systematic work analysing the risk already posed by present-day hazards. flooding is already one of the most widespread of hydrometeorological hazards, and the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) predicts that climate change is likely to cause an increase in flood hazards in many areas of the world (mccarthy et al ., 2001). floods pose risks to health, and emerging evidence from industrialised, transitional and developing countries suggests that their health impact penetrates far deeper than the immediate physical threat from floodwaters. flooding can increase exposure to toxins and pathogens, may have implications for mental health, and can disrupt the capacity of health care systems to respond to health crises (see, for example, mcmichael et al., 2001; who, 2002). however, to date there has been relatively little scientific research characterizing the health outcomes of flood hazards and, similarly, little social science research targeting how vulnerable populations and health care systems respond and adapt to the health risks (few, 2003). as well as improved understanding of the impacts of flood hazards on health, there is a need to focus on how people and institutions respond to health risks. how, for example, does a health system cope with the simultaneous pressures from flood-related morbidity and flood-related disruption of the system itself? figure 1.1 depicts the underlying rationale for the review work documented in this report. if climate change acts as a driver of change in flooding, then the future health burden from floods may significantly alter. it is therefore important that existing information is assessed now so that global knowledge gaps can be strategically addressed. armed with this improved knowledge base, it may be hoped that society will become better able to anticipate and respond to the health threats posed by any intensification of future flooding hazards.
Why are general circulation models (GCMs) sensitive to initial conditions?
it is already well established that due to the chaotic and nonlinear nature of atmospheric processes, general circulation models (gcms) are sensitive to initial conditions
How are Regional Climate Models (RCMs)?
regional climate models (rcms) are limited-area models that are driven at their lateral boundaries by reanalyses or gcm-generated data (e.g., giorgi 1990
Do RCMs also exhibit internal variability?
despite the fact that rcms are constrained by lateral boundary conditions (lbcs), recent studies have shown that rcms also exhibit internal variability. this variability is usually understood as the capacity of the model to produce different solutions for the same set of lbcs (von storch 2005) and appears to vary as a function of season, domain size, and geographical location (e.g., seth and giorgi 1998; giorgi and bi 2000; castro et al. 2005; caya and biner 2004; rinke et al. 2004
it is already well established that due to the chaotic and nonlinear nature of atmospheric processes, general circulation models (gcms) are sensitive to initial conditions (ics; e.g., griffies and bryan 1997; giorgi and bi 2000). gcms generate solutions of the atmospheric circulation that become significantly different after a few days of simulation when run with slightly different ics. regional climate models (rcms) are limited-area models that are driven at their lateral boundaries by reanalyses or gcm-generated data (e.g., giorgi 1990). their higher resolution when compared to gcms allows for finescale details to be added upon the driving large-scale flow (e.g., giorgi and mearns 1991). despite the fact that rcms are constrained by lateral boundary conditions (lbcs), recent studies have shown that rcms also exhibit internal variability. this variability is usually understood as the capacity of the model to produce different solutions for the same set of lbcs (von storch 2005) and appears to vary as a function of season, domain size, and geographical location (e.g., seth and giorgi 1998; giorgi and bi 2000; castro et al. 2005; caya and biner 2004; rinke et al. 2004).
When the area burned by forest fires in Canada has increased?
the area burned by forest fires in canada has increased over the past four decades, at the same time as summer season temperatures have warmed
For what purpose output from a coupled climate model is used?
here we use output from a coupled climate model to demonstrate that human emissions of greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosol have made a detectable contribution to this warming
For what increase in area burned is likely to have importance implications?
this increase in area burned is likely to have important implications for terrestrial emissions of carbon dioxide and for forest ecosystems
the area burned by forest fires in canada has increased over the past four decades, at the same time as summer season temperatures have warmed. here we use output from a coupled climate model to demonstrate that human emissions of greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosol have made a detectable contribution to this warming. we further show that human-induced climate change has had a detectable influence on the area burned by forest fire in canada over recent decades. this increase in area burned is likely to have important implications for terrestrial emissions of carbon dioxide and for forest ecosystems. index terms: 0315 atmospheric composition and structure: biosphere/atmosphere interactions; 1610 global change: atmosphere (0315, 0325); 1620 global change: climate dynamics (3309); 1630 global change: impact phenomena; 9350 information related to geographic region: north america. citation: gillett, n. p., a. j. weaver, f. w. zwiers, and m. d. flannigan (2004), detecting the effect of climate change on canadian forest fires, geophys. res. lett. 31 l18211, doi:10.1029/2004gl020876.
What are some examples of negative coping responses to climate change?
several intra-psychic coping responses to climate change are recognized (e.g., denial, environmental numbness, cognitive reappraisals, and emotion regulation), which may limit additional behavioral responses in some instances
In this passage, what was one area for future research?
nother response that may be relevant for future research is the rejection of consumer-driven lifestyles (e.g., voluntary simplicity or the more radical 'freeganism
What are some positive coping reactions to climate change that are seen at the community level?
at the community level, behavioral responses to environmental stressors include the emergence of volunteerism and other community-helping behaviors
these cognitive, affective, and motivational responses influence both intrapsychic and behavioral responses, which can occur at the individual and the community levels. several intra-psychic coping responses to climate change are recognized (e.g., denial, environmental numbness, cognitive reappraisals, and emotion regulation), which may limit additional behavioral responses in some instances.79however, some individual behavioral responses to climate change are adaptive in a positive way, including seeking information or social support, or changing habits to adjust to a changing climate.6another response that may be relevant for future research is the rejection of consumer-driven lifestyles (e.g., voluntary simplicity or the more radical 'freeganism').80at the community level, behavioral responses to environmental stressors include the emergence of volunteerism and other community-helping behaviors.6,81many of these responses are in part related to the positive psychology approach to explaining human coping and adaptation to climate change,82
What issue is climate change linked to?
climate change is inextricably linked to other issues such as poverty
What shows the potential impact of unchecked climate change?
potential catastrophe instead relies on modelling that shows the terrible impacts that unchecked climate change will have
What will climate change destroy, leaving the environment unable to recover?
climate change will destroy all that progress and economic growth will leave the environment incapable of recovery
potential catastrophe instead relies on modelling that shows the terrible impacts that unchecked climate change will have in the future throughout a developing world that is already environmentally fragile and under stress from population growth and resource scarcity. climate change is inextricably linked to other issues such as poverty and threatens to reverse western-led efforts on human development in the poor world. there is no point in ignoring climate change and tackling other issues first such as poverty or malnutrition, as advocated by rationalism if climate change will destroy all that progress and economic growth will leave the environment incapable of recovery.
Following the 1904 account of the migration to Yakutat made by the Kwaashk'i Kwaan clan, additional accounts were recorded and in which years?
in 1939, john harrington heard accounts from other clan members at yakutat, and a decade later, in 1949 and again in 1952, frederica de laguna, working with his notes, recorded what women as well as men living in yakutat could tell her about this migration
What language was the source of the 1904 account dictated in?
the narrator, k'aadasteen, a clan member who grew up at yakutat, dictated in tlingit
What were narrators in essential agreement about?
narrators are in essential agreement about why clan members left their original inland home near the junction of the chitina and copper rivers and the various routes by which they reached first icy bay
in 1904 at sitka, ethnographer john swanton recorded an account of an 18th century migration to yakutat made by the kwaashk'i kwaan clan, ahtna-speaking athapaskans from the copper river region. the narrator, k'aadasteen, a clan member who grew up at yakutat, dictated in tlingit, while another tlingit man, don cameron, assisted swanton with translation (swanton, 1909:347-368). thirty-five years later, in 1939, john harrington heard accounts from other clan members at yakutat, and a decade later, in 1949 and again in 1952, frederica de laguna, working with his notes, recorded what women as well as men living in yakutat could tell her about this migration. narrators are in essential agreement about why clan members left their original inland home near the junction of the chitina and copper rivers and the various routes by which they reached first icy bay, then
Describe the nature of climate change?
these uncertainties are unlikely to dissipate in the near term. within these uncertainties are the possibility for surprises, which could be unpleasant and quick to appear. in this context, a strategy that balances detecting and adjusting to changes against extrapolating (including modeling) and anticipating changes will be most prudent
What is climate change?
thus, monitoring of climatic and hydrologic conditions plays an important role in addressing potential climate changes. to detect hydrologic changes due to climate change or other causes, data from long-term monitoring networks are essential for establishing baseline conditions and tracking any changes over time
Describe aquatic processes?
monitoring networks are also essential for fully understanding the hydrologic processes that lead to changes in water resources and for calibrating and validating models used to project future conditions. in turn, information about possible or likely future changes to climate improves the effectiveness of planning studies and allows the development and implementation of reasonable strategies for adapting to a changing climate
current projections of climate changes and their potential impacts harbor many uncertainties, and these uncertainties are unlikely to dissipate in the near term. within these uncertainties are the possibility for surprises, which could be unpleasant and quick to appear. in this context, a strategy that balances detecting and adjusting to changes against extrapolating (including modeling) and anticipating changes will be most prudent. thus, monitoring of climatic and hydrologic conditions plays an important role in addressing potential climate changes. to detect hydrologic changes due to climate change or other causes, data from long-term monitoring networks are essential for establishing baseline conditions and tracking any changes over time. monitoring networks are also essential for fully understanding the hydrologic processes that lead to changes in water resources and for calibrating and validating models used to project future conditions. in turn, information about possible or likely future changes to climate improves the effectiveness of planning studies and allows the development and implementation of reasonable strategies for adapting to a changing climate.
Which countries had negligible exports of CO2 allowances in 2012?
while the exports of spain, finland, portugal and sweden are negligible, france, greece, the netherlands and especially italy export 5 to 17 mtco2 in 2012
What allowed emissions in the ETS sectors to rise in the Netherlands and Italy?
the generous allocation of allowances in the naps of netherlands and italy that allow emissions in the ets sectors to rise
Who are the main exporters of CO2 allowances in Europe?
the main exporters of allowances are still the eastern european countries
while the exports of spain, finland, portugal and sweden are negligible, france, greece, the netherlands and especially italy export 5 to 17 mtco2 in 2012. this is partly the case because these countries are close to meeting their kyoto targets (france, greece), but partly because of the generous allocation of allowances in the naps of netherlands and italy that allow emissions in the ets sectors to rise. it is worth mentioning that the italian nap has not been accepted by the eu commission and is under revision. nevertheless, the main exporters of allowances are still the eastern european countries. as figure 6 shows the trade in allowances in absolute quantities, the size of a country dominates trade flows. for example, germany's ets sectors account for almost one quarter of the total european trading scheme. hence, germany is the largest importer with imports of around 45 mtco2 in 2012.
How many dead zones did Diaz Rosenberg assemble?
diaz rosenberg (2008) assembled a database of over 400 dead zones worldwide
In the dead zones what is the predicted warming?
we found that the majority of documented dead zones are in regions predicted to experience over 2 deg c warming
What percentage of sites were prone to warming?
94% of sites
diaz rosenberg (2008) assembled a database of over 400 dead zones worldwide, and established that their number is increasing exponentially over time. to characterize the severity of climate change that these ecosystems are likely to experience over the coming century, we explored the future annual temperature anomalies predicted to occur for each of these systems. we found that the majority of documented dead zones are in regions predicted to experience over 2 deg c warming (94% of sites, median 2.3 deg c) by the end of this century (fig. 2), suggesting a broad relevance and urgency for understanding climate change to better predict and manage coastal dead zones.
What is the role of women as natural resource managers?
women have a key role in development, and any potential environmental policy should take cognisance of women as key players particularly given their role as natural resource managers
Should  gender differences be considered for identifying roles in a community?
gender differences, being a key component of the political, social, economic and cultural characteristics of a society, need to be considered as a strategic entry point for identifying roles and responsibilities within a community
How can gender equality be acheived?
to achieve gender equity, as recent studies point out, the construction of enabling frameworks does not only involve "government spending" targeted on equal opportunities between sexes, but a special focus should be reserved for the adoption of gender-sensitive policy-making
gender: the missing component of the response to climate change however, "focusing solely on vulnerability may be misleading since women often have untapped skills, coping strategies and knowledge that could be used to minimize the impacts of crisis, environmental change and disasters" .75 in reality, "women have a key role in development, and any potential environmental policy should take cognisance of women as key players particularly given their role as natural resource managers"76. studies underline the existence of potentials linked to women's active involvement in agriculture and their dependence on biomass energy that make them the "key stakeholders" in effective environmental management. it should be underlined that the development of appropriate strategies to respond to climate change impacts "necessitates an understanding of systemic interactions and an emphasis on an integrated, holistic planning process that includes multi-sector cooperation and participation" .77 one of the central aspects of any participatory planning is including both men and women (also male and female children). as a consequence, gender differences, being a key component of the political, social, economic and cultural characteristics of a society, need to be considered as a strategic entry point for identifying roles and responsibilities within a community. to achieve gender equity, as recent studies point out, the construction of enabling frameworks does not only involve "government spending" targeted on equal opportunities between sexes, but a special focus should be reserved for the adoption of gender-sensitive policy-making.78
What does Technological Challenge requires ?
technological challenge requires incentives for the development of technologies needed to address the negative public health consequences of climate change in poor countries
Compare the development of rich and poor markets .
experience in the pharmaceutical sector has shown that rich markets generate vigorous research and development activities, whereas poor markets are mainly ignored. public funding for investment in developing technologies for poor markets
the unfccc identifi es technology transfer (along with funding and insurance) as key actions for adaptation to climate change by developing countries. appropriate technologies are adapted to local economic and ecological conditions, and take into account local knowledge, skills, and culture. the technological challenge is not only about high-technology solutions but also about understanding biodiversity to develop appropriate policy responses, and the contribution that less developed communities can make in sharing their knowledge of sustainable low-carbon technologies and ways of life. technological challenge requires incentives for the development of technologies needed to address the negative public health consequences of climate change in poor countries. experience in the pharmaceutical sector has shown that rich markets generate vigorous research and development activities, whereas poor markets are mainly ignored. public funding for investment in developing technologies for poor markets
The existing national assessments of the potential health impacts of climate change tend to focus on what part of infectious diseases?
alterations in the distribution and incidence of vector borne diseases
What act of nature has not been considered an important mechanism by which climate change may affect human health?
flooding has not often been considered explicitly as an important mechanism by which climate change may affect human health
What is the one quantitative assessment of the future health burden of flooding due to global climate change has so far been attempted?
the who global burden of disease project will provide estimates of deaths and dalys attributable to 3 climate scenarios, globally and by region
only one quantitative assessment of the future health burden of flooding due to global climate change has so far been attempted. the who global burden of disease project will provide estimates of deaths and dalys attributable to 3 climate scenarios, globally and by region (mcmichael et al ., 2004). existing national assessments of the potential health impacts of climate change tend to focus on infectious diseases, particularly alterations in the distribution and incidence of vector borne diseases. to date, flooding has not often been considered explicitly as an important mechanism by which climate change may affect human health, with the notable exception of a report by the uk government (department of health, 2001).
What change is expected by 2050 in the number of generations?
will have increased to 5- 10 and 11-16 in high (1,400-1,800 m.a.s.l.) and low to middle elevation (900-1,300 m.a.s.l.) coffee production regions of east africa, respectively
Predicted number of generations of H. hampei along an altitudinal gradient around Lake Victoria includes?
c. canephora plantations in bukoba, mubende, and -luweero, and c. arabica cultivation areas in mbale and the mt. elgon area
Total number of generations of the borer would be around for even up to what altitudes?
close to 3,000 m.a.s.l
africa under both climate change scenarios used in this study, by 2050 the number of generations will have increased to 5- 10 and 11-16 in high (1,400-1,800 m.a.s.l.) and low to middle elevation (900-1,300 m.a.s.l.) coffee production regions of east africa, respectively. to better illustrate the effect of altitude on number of coffee berry borer generations, figure 9 presents the predicted number of generations of h. hampei along an altitudinal gradient around lake victoria, which includes c. canephora plantations in bukoba, mubende, and -luweero, and c. arabica cultivation areas in mbale and the mt. elgon area. this clearly illustrates the changes in number of generations when moving upslope. for a2 case scenario, the number of h. hampei are not predicted to dramatically change compared to current climatic conditions, however, remarkable changes would take place under b2 scenario, where total number of generations of the borer would be around four even at altitudes close to 3,000 m.a.s.l.
climate change has resulted?
has resulted historically in significant shifts in the distributions of species and ecosystems (davis, 1986
Shifts'of tree distributions?
shifts'of tree distributions during the climatic warming of the recent glacial retreat
directional climate change has the potential to affect biological?
such directional climate change has the potential to affect biological communities in a profound manner
directional climate change has resulted historically in significant shifts in the distributions of species and ecosystems (davis, 1986). shifts'of tree distributions during the climatic warming of the recent glacial retreat are perhaps the best documented example, with species migrating at average rates of hundreds of metres per year or more for thousands of years (huntley birks, 1983; gitchie 8c macdonald, 1986; delcourt 8c delcourt, 1987; king 8c herstrom, 1997). such directional climate change has the potential to affect biological communities in a profound manner. because species vary fundamentally in the magnitude and riming of their responses, community composition may only partly reflect biotic processes such as predation and competition (davis, 1986; huntley webb, 1989). in fact, the role of migration and dispersal in structuring biological communities may be more pervasive than is generally appreciated. clark et al. (1998) found that even in present-day closed canopy temperate forests, recruitment limitation because of low seed availability was true for many relatively common tree taxa and concluded that dispersal limitation at the within-stand level was likely to be an important factor affecting forest diversity and species composition (see also matlack, 1994; hubbell etal., 1999).
Achieving ambitious political targets for carbon reduction depends on society's involvement in climate change and GHG mitigation
achieving ambitious policy targets for carbon reduction depends on societal engagement with climate change and ghg mitigation
What is done to clarify the dimensions of carbon capacity? Individual learning processes are carried out
in order to elucidate the dimensions of carbon capability, we have attempted to synthesize psychological and sociological considerations of the factors influencing public engagement in individual, community and civic action to help mitigate climate change
achieving ambitious policy targets for carbon reduction depends on societal engagement with climate change and ghg mitigation. in the current policy context which places considerable responsibility for carbon reduction with individuals, we have here considered the extent to which the public is appropriately equipped to engage in (voluntary) ghg mitigation, that is how 'carbon capable' they are. the construct of 'carbon capability' delineates the skills, situated knowledge, motivation, and capacity to cut carbon. in order to elucidate the dimensions of carbon capability, we have attempted to synthesize psychological and sociological considerations of the factors influencing public engagement in individual, community and civic action to help mitigate climate change. these considerations include processes of individual learning (e.g., objectification, anchoring) and construction of situated knowledge, as well as engagement with systems of provision and governance and the complex agency--structure dialectic that co--produces social practices.
Which report suggests for intense  research into high resolution model-based climate projections?
the third assessment report (tar) of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) includes several recommendations for intensifying research into high resolution model-based climate projections
Why is there need to co-ordinate RCM [regional climate model] simulation?
to extend studies to more regions so that ensemble simulations with different models and scenarios can be developed to provide useful information for 4 4 impact assessments
How do we minimise limitations due to sampling problems?
provide rcm simulations of increasing length to minimise limitations due to sampling problems
the third assessment report (tar) of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) includes several recommendations for intensifying research into high resolution model-based climate projections: "the need is there to co-ordinate rcm [regional climate model] simulation efforts and to extend studies to more regions so that ensemble simulations with different models and scenarios can be developed to provide useful information for 4 4 impact assessments. this will need to be achieved under the auspices of international or large national programmes. within this context, an important issue is to provide rcm simulations of increasing length to minimise limitations due to sampling problems" (giorgi et al., 2001, p. 616).
what did Mendelsohn and Dinar and Williams generate in (2006)?
a similar finding in their global analysis of the direct impacts (ignoring market impacts) of climate change on the agriculture, water, energy sectors, as well as damages due to sea level rise
mendelsohn, dinar and williams (2006) generate a similar finding in their global analysis of the direct impacts (ignoring market impacts) of climate change on the agriculture, water, energy sectors, as well as damages due to sea level rise. they find that poor countries (defined by per capita income in 2100) suffer much more from climate change than do rich countries. indeed, rich countries lose from climate change in only one of their eight 'scenarios'. further analysis reveals that these adverse impacts stem from two factors. first and foremost is the fact that the low income countries are disproportionately represented in the tropics, where temperatures are already above the optimum for many crops. thus further temperature increases bring large crop losses, whereas they bring gains in the higher latitudes. secondly, since agriculture is the most severely affected sector in their analysis, the relatively heavier reliance of these poor countries on farming results in larger losses as a proportion of gdp. mendelsohn and dinar (2009) emphasize the heterogeneity of impacts by farm size in the tropics in their synthesis of "ricardian" analyses of climate change impacts. they point out that the emphasis on staple crops in much of this literature misses economically important impacts on other crops and livestock. in the case of livestock impacts in africa, they find that large farms are likely more economically sensitive to climate change than small farms. this is driven by the reliance on heat intolerant beef cattle in the large livestock farms, as compared to the more diversified herds of small farms. in general, they find that economic returns to small ruminants (e.g., goats) are less sensitive to climate change. in latin america, the studies they summarize focus on returns to land as a summary statistic of farm well-being. here, they conclude that large farms are also slightly more vulnerable to climate change than are small farms. they suggest (p. 214) that this is "likely due to large farms specializing in high-value crops and livestock that are both heat-intolerant".
Which theme did the Royal Horticultural Society use for their garden at the 2008 Chelsea Flower Show ?
in 2008 the royal horticultural society built their garden at the chelsea flower show around the theme of climate change
Which two future scenarios were illustrated by their two different gardens?
there were two future scenarios including a ' low emissions ' and a ' high emissions ' garden
Name one of the secrets that have been employed over thousands of years to gardening in some of the hottest places on Earth
the secret of the success of gardening in some of the hottest places on earth was to create a micro-climate fed by very selective watering systems and strategies
in 2008 the royal horticultural society built their garden at the chelsea flower show around the theme of climate change. plants such as tender perennials did not feature and there were very few cacti to be seen. there were two future scenarios including a ' low emissions ' and a ' high emissions ' garden. the former had plants that can be grown in sheltered positions in today's gardens but the latter was populated with species that one would find in mediterranean gardens today such as bougainvillea, succulents and a wide range of drought-resistant species. plants like humans and other animals, are being influenced by the changing climate. in even the hottest and driest places on earth the garden has always been an important climatic design feature, to enhance the enjoyment of life, through the richness of colour and texture, perfumes and appearance, but also a very effective way of providing cooling. the earliest dynasties of mesopotamia were renowned for their gardens. the garden of eden was placed by historians at the confluence of the tigris and the euphrates and the poetry of the sumerians, living over 5000 years ago in that region, lyrically details the beauty of the trees, plants and flowers enjoyed at the time. most have also heard of the hanging gardens of babylon and many will have read the rich poetry of the persians, singing tributes to the beauty of the gardens and their contents with ponds and streams set, in an ordered fashion, in the great walled domains and parks. 35 on such a great tradition of gardening were built the roman gardens, as one can see today in pompeii, where many have been reconstructed from the archaeological evidence garnered from the uncovered city. vines and fruit trees, woods and flowers and herbs flourish, still reflecting the wall paintings around the houses. 36 the secret of the success of gardening in some of the hottest places on earth was to create a micro-climate fed by very selective watering systems and strategies and protected from more free ebooks http://fast-file.blogspot.com
What are economic models?
the best-known climate-economics models weigh the costs of allowing climate change to continue against the costs of stopping or slowing it, and thus recommend a 'best' course of action: one that, given the assumptions of the model, would cause the least harm. the results of such models are, of course, only as good as their underlying structures and parameter values
What is Climate Change Analysis?
analysis of climate change, in economics as well as in science, inescapably involves extrapolation into the future
What happens at temperature levels?
to understand and respond to the expected changes, it is essential to forecast what will happen at greenhouse gas concentrations and temperature levels that are outside the range of human experience, under
the best-known climate-economics models weigh the costs of allowing climate change to continue against the costs of stopping or slowing it, and thus recommend a 'best' course of action: one that, given the assumptions of the model, would cause the least harm. the results of such models are, of course, only as good as their underlying structures and parameter values. analysis of climate change, in economics as well as in science, inescapably involves extrapolation into the future. to understand and respond to the expected changes, it is essential to forecast what will happen at greenhouse gas concentrations and temperature levels that are outside the range of human experience, under
What has been developed based on a decade of research on cloud processes ?
based on a decade of research on cloud processes, a new version of the lmdz atmospheric general circulation model has been developed
What does the  LMDZ5B  version include?
this lmdz5b version includes a mass-flux representation of the thermal plumes or rolls of the convective boundary layer, coupled to a bi-gaussian statistical cloud scheme, as well as a parameterization of the cold pools generated below cumulonimbus by reevaporation of convective precipitation
What are the differences of the new version with that of the  previous LMDZ5A version?
we document the differences with the previous lmdz5a version distinguishing the role of parameterization changes from that of model tuning. improvements found previously in single-column simulations of case studies are confirmed in the 3d model: (1) the convective boundary layer and cumulus clouds are better represented and (2) the diurnal cycle of convective rainfall over continents is delayed by several hours, solving a longstanding problem in climate modeling. the variability of tropical rainfall is also larger in lmdz5b at intraseasonal timescales. significant biases of the lmdz5a model however remain, or are even sometimes amplified
based on a decade of research on cloud processes, a new version of the lmdz atmospheric general circulation model has been developed that corresponds to a complete recasting of the parameterization of turbulence, convection and clouds. this lmdz5b version includes a mass-flux representation of the thermal plumes or rolls of the convective boundary layer, coupled to a bi-gaussian statistical cloud scheme, as well as a parameterization of the cold pools generated below cumulonimbus by reevaporation of convective precipitation. the triggering and closure of deep convection are now controlled by lifting processes in the sub-cloud layer. an available lifting energy and lifting power are provided both by the thermal plumes and by the spread of cold pools. the individual parameterizations were carefully validated against the results of explicit high resolution simulations. here we present the work done to go from those new concepts and developments to a full 3d atmospheric model, used in particular for climate change projections with the ipslcm5b coupled model. based on a series of sensitivity experiments, we document the differences with the previous lmdz5a version distinguishing the role of parameterization changes from that of model tuning. improvements found previously in single-column simulations of case studies are confirmed in the 3d model: (1) the convective boundary layer and cumulus clouds are better represented and (2) the diurnal cycle of convective rainfall over continents is delayed by several hours, solving a longstanding problem in climate modeling. the variability of tropical rainfall is also larger in lmdz5b at intraseasonal timescales. significant biases of the lmdz5a model however remain, or are even sometimes amplified. the paper emphasizes the importance of parameterization improvements and model tuning in the frame of climate change studies as well as the new paradigm that represents the improvement of 3d climate models under the control of single-column case studies simulations. keywords climate modeling  physical parameterizations  shallow convection  deep convection  climate change projections 1 the representation of turbulent, convective and cloud processes is critical for climate modeling for a series of reasons. clouds affect the latitudinal gradients of diabatic heating in the atmosphere, thereby forcing the general circulation. their representation is key for the simulation of prominent climate features such as the inter tropical
Who spoke of multiple equilibria?
ackerman, 2002
Who spoke of an arbitrary theoretical restriction which is known to assure a single optimal result?
ackerman, 2002
Why are increasing returns to scale important?
because increasing returns to scale are important to accurate modelling of endogenous technological change
in dynamic versions of general equilibrium theory, multiple equilibria cannot always be ruled out (ackerman, 2002).7when multiple equilibria are present, general equilibrium models yield indeterminate results that may depend on details of the estimation procedure. for this reason, an assumption of constant or decreasing returns is often added to their production functions, an arbitrary theoretical restriction which is known to assure a single optimal result (ko"hler et al., 2006). because increasing returns to scale are important to accurate modelling of endogenous technological change, general equilibrium modellers must skirt between oversimplifying their representation of the energy sector and allowing unstable model results.
The year 2000 is related to what time?
pre-industrial times
Which chemical compound in the text has a longer life than the others?
co2
What delayed the temperature response to emissions?
the thermal inertia of the ocean
f diagram referred to above just shows the instantaneous values for (typically) year 2000 relative to pre-industrial times. fig. 3 a also shows that the perturbation of co2 is very longlived while o3, black carbon (bc) and sulphate (so4) die out quickly after the emissions stop. fig. 3 b shows the temperature response for these emissions. a delay of about a decade can be seen which is due to the thermal inertia of the ocean. one possible extension to the radiative forcing is to take into account the so-called efficacy of different climate forcings (e.g. forster et al., 2007a; hansen et al., 2005 and, specifically in the context of aviation, ponater et al., 2006 ). the efficacy measures the ratio of
Why does approach is obviously imperfect?
our approach is obviously imperfect. the first limitation is that for protecting innovations, patents are only one of several means, along with lead time, industrial secrecy, or purposefully complex specifications (cohen et al., 2000; frietsch and schmoch, 2006
How does inventors avoid the public disclosure of the invention?
in fact, inventors may prefer secrecy to avoid the public disclosure of the invention imposed by patent law, or to save the significant fees attached to patent filing
our approach is obviously imperfect. the first limitation is that for protecting innovations, patents are only one of several means, along with lead time, industrial secrecy, or purposefully complex specifications (cohen et al., 2000; frietsch and schmoch, 2006). in fact, inventors may prefer secrecy to avoid the public disclosure of the invention imposed by patent law, or to save the significant fees attached to patent filing. however, there are very few examples of economically significant inventions that have not been patented (dernis and guellec, 2001), although the propensity to patent differs between sectors, depending on the nature of the technology (cohen et al., 2000) and
What area does the study identify the shortcomings of?
nepal
What are these shortcomings?
the delay of the national communication to the unfccc, the lack of attention in national policy documents, the very low awareness among policy makers and the general public, and the low institutional capacity, also in international negotiations
How much, in US$, does Nepal receive in donor aid per year?
us$ 350 million
com/env/epoc/dcd/dac(2003)1/final 22 22 facing nepal's sustainable development. it also contains a separate section on climate change, which lists the potentially serious consequences for infrastructure, agriculture, drinking water, irrigation, hydropower, and biodiversity, and mentions the risk of glofs. climate change is not mentioned as a risk in the context of other sustainable development challenges, except in the case of biodiversity and natural disasters (increasing risk of glofs). broader climate risks, including natural hazards such as floods and droughts, feature prominently, and concrete disaster mitigation measures are proposed (including the establishment of a national disaster preparedness and management agency, the creation of village-level early warning systems for floods, landslides or earthquakes, building decentralized emergency response capacity, enforcing design standards for buildings and infrastructure that take into account site-specific risks, investing in better weather and earthquake prediction systems, and, specifically for glofs, monitoring of the lakes and preparation of siphon materials). the discussion in sdan therefore is consistent with the priority ranking of critical climate impacts listed in section 3.3 of this report. the sectoral reports for the sdan do not mention climate change explicitly, except for the one that contains a specific section on protection of the atmosphere. while this section recognizes the vulnerability of nepal and lists some expected impacts of global warming, it focuses primarily on mitigation and carbon sequestration. it recognizes the need to build capacity to minimize the adverse impacts of climate change, but offers no concrete measures. the report identifies a number of shortcomings in nepal's approach to climate change: the delay of the national communication to the unfccc, the lack of attention in national policy documents, the very low awareness among policy makers and the general public, and the low institutional capacity, also in international negotiations. in the context of climate change mitigation, the report points out that while the potential for cdm projects seems limited, many programs on alternative energy are being implemented without explicit linkage to climate change issues. 5. attention to climate concerns in donor activities nepal receives large amounts of donor aid, of the order of us$ 350 million per year, or about 7% of gni. the largest donors, in terms of overall investments, are japan, the asian development bank, and the world bank (ida). figure 6 displays the distribution of this aid by development sector and by donor. nepal receives large amounts of aid, both in absolute terms and in relation to gni. consequently, foreign aid also accounts for the lion share (70%11) of development investments in the country. hence, while the overall development agenda is of course set by the government of nepal, the donor agencies have quite a strong say in the strategic choices and ways of implementation of the vast majority of development investments.12 the following sections highlight the possible extent of climate risks to development investments in nepal, and examine to what extent current and future climate risks are factored in to development strategies and plans.13,14 analysis of selected donor project and planning documents is provided in appendix c.
With what will the impacts on agriculture will be combined to provide labor for agriculture?
the above impacts on agriculture will be combined with impacts on human health and ability to provide labor for agriculture, such as increased malaria risk (85), and on important secondary nonfarm livelihood strategies for many rural people in developing countries
What forms the basis of adaptation to climate change?
these systems are already characterized by constant adaptation to climate variability, which is forming the basis of adaptation to climate change
What gives rise to concern over temperature-induced decline in crop yields in the dryland tropics?
in general, however, the location of a large body of smallholder and subsistence farming households in the dryland tropics gives rise to especial concern over temperature-induced decline in crop yields, and increasing frequency and severity of drought
the above impacts on agriculture will be combined with impacts on human health and ability to provide labor for agriculture, such as increased malaria risk (85), and on important secondary nonfarm livelihood strategies for many rural people in developing countries. one such strategy involves activities connected to tourism, and some negative impacts of climate change on tourism in developing countries have already been projected (86). the above framework shows how complex and location-specific the projection of climate change impacts on smallholder and subsistence agriculture will be. a further complexity is given by the problem of distinguishing impact and adaptation. these systems are already characterized by constant adaptation to climate variability, which is forming the basis of adaptation to climate change: there will be profound methodological problems in observing or predicting impacts that do not also involve adaptation. in general, however, the location of a large body of smallholder and subsistence farming households in the dryland tropics gives rise to especial concern over temperature-induced decline in crop yields, and increasing frequency and severity of drought. these lead to the following generalizations:
What happens if the sum of FPCgridcell for woody PFTs exceeds 0.95?
if the sum of fpcgridcell for woody pfts exceeds 0.95, the density of individuals is reduced in a self-thinning like process, favoring those pfts with a higher annual increment in foliage projected cover
How often does the establishment of new individuals occur?
establishment of new individuals occurs annually (figure 1
How is the maximum rate of establishment scaled?
a maximum rate of establishment (table 5) is scaled by the fraction of the grid cell not covered by woody vegetation, limiting establishment to gaps in the canopy
if fpcgridcell, summed over all pfts, exceeds one, woody pfts are favored over herbaceous pfts as a result of their dominant position in the canopy. if the sum of fpcgridcell for woody pfts exceeds 0.95, the density of individuals is reduced in a self-thinning like process, favoring those pfts with a higher annual increment in foliage projected cover. establishment establishment of new individuals occurs annually (figure 1). establishment of woody pfts occurs through an increase in population density. a maximum rate of establishment (table 5) is scaled by the fraction of the grid cell not covered by woody vegetation, limiting establishment to gaps in the canopy. this establishment is divided equally among regenerating pfts. saplings of woody pfts are assigned an initial leaf area index, from which carbon pools are derived. this carbon is added to the average individual so that no ageor size-classes are recognized. establishment of herbaceous pfts occurs as an increase in 11 leaf and root carbon. a maximum rate of increase in these pools is scaled by the non-vegetated portion of the grid cell and divided equally among herbaceous pfts. several bioclimatic rules constrain regeneration (table 1). only pfts that survive in the current climate can regenerate. no establishment occurs when annual precipitation is less 100 mm. this prevents regeneration in regions of severe water deficiency. regeneration is prohibited when the 20-year running mean of the minimum monthly temperature is greater than an upper threshold, mimicking a winter chilling requirement. growing season warmth requirements are represented by annual growing degree-days. establishment is precluded when this is less than a pft-specific limit. fire occurrence of fire is calculated annually (figure 1) based on fuel load and the annual sum of daily fire probability (thonicke et al 2001). the probability of occurrence of at least one fire in a day is
When does maximum ozone depletion occur?
maximum ozone depletion occurs in late winter to early spring
What alters the UV-temperature relationships?
changes in the timing of ice-out, seasonal temperatures, and thus vertical mixing during the late winter and spring (likens, 2000; magnuson et al ., 2000a, b) may further alter these uv-temperature relationships
What enable us to predict the changes in organism and ecosystem-level responses to climate change?
understanding how the molecular-level processes involved in dna damage and repair respond to changes in environmental temperature and uv will better enable us to predict how these responses translate into organism and ecosystem-level responses to climate change
(gerten adrian, 2000; straile adrian, 2000). other elements of global change may also be important. for example, maximum ozone depletion occurs in late winter to early spring (madronich et al ., 1998). changes in the timing of ice-out, seasonal temperatures, and thus vertical mixing during the late winter and spring (likens, 2000; magnuson et al ., 2000a, b) may further alter these uv-temperature relationships. understanding how the molecular-level processes involved in dna damage and repair respond to changes in environmental temperature and uv will better enable us to predict how these responses translate into organism and ecosystem-level responses to climate change.
What is evaluated for Alaska and Greenland?
the performance of a set of 15 global climate models used in the coupled model intercomparison project is evaluated for alaska and greenland
What are summed over the seasonal cycles of three variables?
root-mean-square errors relative to the 1958-2000 climatology of the 40-yr ecmwf re-analysis (era-40) are summed over the seasonal cycles of three variables
What tend to be the ones that perform best over Alaska and Greenland?
the specific models that perform best over the larger domains tend to be the ones that perform best over alaska and greenland
danish climate centre, danish meteorological institute, copenhagen, denmark (manuscript received 25 july 2007, in final form 30 april 2008) the performance of a set of 15 global climate models used in the coupled model intercomparison project is evaluated for alaska and greenland, and compared with the performance over broader pan-arctic and northern hemisphere extratropical domains. root-mean-square errors relative to the 1958-2000 climatology of the 40-yr ecmwf re-analysis (era-40) are summed over the seasonal cycles of three variables: surface air temperature, precipitation, and sea level pressure. the specific models that perform best over the larger domains tend to be the ones that perform best over alaska and greenland. the rankings of the models are largely unchanged when the bias of each model's climatological annual mean is removed prior to the error calculation for the individual models. the annual mean biases typically account for about half of the models' root-mean-square errors. however, the root-mean-square errors of the models are generally much larger than the biases of the composite output, indicating that the systematic errors differ considerably among the models. there is a tendency for the models with smaller errors to simulate a larger greenhouse warming over the arctic, as well as larger increases of arctic precipitation and decreases of arctic sea level pressure, when greenhouse gas concentrations are increased. because several models have substantially smaller systematic errors than the other models, the differences in greenhouse projections imply that the choice of a subset of models may offer a viable approach to narrowing the uncertainty and obtaining more robust estimates of future climate change in regions such as alaska, greenland, and the broader arctic.
The study of what factors improves our understanding of the interactions between terrestrial ecosystems and climatic systems?
study of the effect of current climate changes on vegetation growth, and their spatial patterns improves our understanding of the interactions between terrestrial ecosystems and climatic systems
Results indicate that changes in which two factors likely function as dominant controllers for the greening trend?
the results indicate that changes in climate and atmospheric co2 likely function as dominant controllers for the greening trend during the study period
study of the effect of current climate changes on vegetation growth, and their spatial patterns improves our understanding of the interactions between terrestrial ecosystems and climatic systems. this paper explores the spatial patterns of vegetation growth responding to climate variability over northern hemisphere (>25  n) from 1980 to 2000 using a mechanistic terrestrial carbon model. the results indicate that changes in climate and atmospheric co2 likely function as dominant controllers for the greening trend during the study period. at the continental scale, atmospheric co2, temperature, and precipitation account for 49%, 31%, and 13% of the increase in growing season lai, respectively, but their relative role is not constant across the study area. the increase in vegetation activity in most of siberia is associated with warming, while that in central north america is primarily explained by the precipitation change. the model simulation also suggests that the regression slope of lai to temperature increases with soil moisture, but decreases with temperature. this implies that the contribution of rising temperature to the current enhanced greening trend will weaken or even disappear under continued global warming. we also find that the effects of both vegetation precipitation use efficiency and atmospheric co2 fertilization on the greening trend increase as soil moisture becomes limiting. citation: piao, s., p. friedlingstein, p. ciais, l. zhou, and a. chen (2006), effect of climate and co2 changes on the greening of the northern hemisphere over the past two decades, geophys. res. lett. 33 l23402, doi:10.1029/2006gl028205.
what additional insights are you providing with respect to the impact of the  climate sensitivity parameter?
while a comprehensive sensitivity analysis is beyond the scope of the paper, we provide some additional insights with respect to the impact of the climate sensitivity parameter. this parameter is considered as one of the most uncertain parameters in integrated assessment models
what changes have you made as to the default value of 2.8*C?
departing from the default value of 2.8*c, we run model experiments (exemplarily for policy scenario a) by assuming the climate sensitivity to amount to 2.0*c (scenario var 1) and 3.5*c (scenario var 2). 30 figure 17(a) shows the sensitivity of the global emissions on this assumption
what effect does high climate sensitivity have?
a high climate sensitivity demands for a more drastic reduction of emissions than the default policy scenario a (cf. figure 14
while a comprehensive sensitivity analysis is beyond the scope of the paper, we provide some additional insights with respect to the impact of the climate sensitivity parameter. this parameter is considered as one of the most uncertain parameters in integrated assessment models. departing from the default value of 2.8*c, we run model experiments (exemplarily for policy scenario a) by assuming the climate sensitivity to amount to 2.0*c (scenario var 1) and 3.5*c (scenario var 2). 30 figure 17(a) shows the sensitivity of the global emissions on this assumption. whereas a low climate sensitivity allows emissions to stay above the current level until 2050, a high climate sensitivity demands for a more drastic reduction of emissions than the default policy scenario a (cf. figure 14). within the current setting, remind-r is not able to find a feasible solution with a climate sensitivity of 3.6*c and higher. achieving a feasible solution in some of these cases, which requests for an even faster reduction of co2 emissions than in scenario var 1, will be possible if we allow for idle capacities and negative emissions.
What does the plot show?
fig. s10 effect of agreement dimensions on public support for global climate change cooperation in france, germany, the united kingdom, and the united states by level of environmentalism (willingness to pay). this plot shows estimates of the effect of randomly assigned agreement features on the probability of supporting an agreement
What are estimates based on?
estimates are based on the regression of agreement support on dummy variables for values of the agreement dimensions with standard errors clustered by respondent
fig. s10 effect of agreement dimensions on public support for global climate change cooperation in france, germany, the united kingdom, and the united states by level of environmentalism (willingness to pay). this plot shows estimates of the effect of randomly assigned agreement features on the probability of supporting an agreement. estimates are based on the regression of agreement support on dummy variables for values of the agreement dimensions with standard errors clustered by respondent. the bars indicate 95% confidence intervals and the points without bars indicate the reference category for a given agreement dimension. environmentalism is measured using the following question: "if you consider your monthly income: how much of it would you be willing to invest into reducing greenhouse gas emissions (for example, buying energy efficient electric appliances, installing heat insulation in your home, buying electric power produced from renewable energy sources, buying locally produced food)? please indicate the amount on a scale from 0 to 100, with 0 meaning 'nothing at all' and 100 meaning 'my whole income'." answers were converted into a binary indicator variable that equals one for those who indicated an amount higher than the median response (which was 18%) and is zero otherwise.
How many billion of urban dewellers estimated by 2050?
6 billion
what are the physical effects induced by green house gas?
radiative forcing, and localised effects
what are the causes occur in climate changes?
global warming and urban effects
urbanisation is estimated to result in 6 billion urban dwellers by 2050. cities will be exposed to climate change from greenhouse gas induced radiative forcing, and localised effects from urbanisation such as the urban heat island. an urban land - surface model has been included in the hadam3 global climate model. it shows that regions of high population growth coincide with regions of high urban heat island potential, most notably in the middle east, the indian sub - continent, and east africa. climate change has the capacity to modify the climatic potential for urban heat islands, with increases of 30% in some locations, but a global average reduction of 6%. warming and extreme heat events due to urbanisation and increased energy consumption are simulated to be as large as the impact of doubled co2 in some regions, and climate change increases the disparity in extreme hot nights between rural and urban areas. citation: mccarthy, m. p., m. j. best, and r. a. betts (2010), climate change in cities due to global warming and urban effects, geophys. res. lett. 37 l09705, doi:10.1029/ 2010gl042845.
what and adaptation?
adaptation-as defined above-are the actions undertaken to avert or minimize negative impacts of a perturbation or take advantage of the beneficial ones that may arise from it
How can vulnerability research help?
while vulnerability-focused research can help identify intervention options and suggest ways of prioritizing adaptation actions
what are the issues that focus on specific actions?
the research areas suggested below focus on specific questions related to the feasibility, interactions, and effectiveness of different adaptation actions-an area of research relatively neglected to date
adaptation-as defined above-are the actions undertaken to avert or minimize negative impacts of a perturbation or take advantage of the beneficial ones that may arise from it. such actions vary in the depth of the intervention (and system changes intended or achieved), the timing when-relative to the perturbation-they are undertaken, and who carries out the action adger et al., 2007 ). while vulnerability-focused research can help identify intervention options and suggest ways of prioritizing adaptation actions, the research areas suggested below focus on specific questions related to the feasibility, interactions, and effectiveness of different adaptation actions-an area of research relatively neglected to date.
What is the proposed methodology testing for?
in the methodology proposed in this paper we are testing for significance within each model by using the variance estimated from within each of the model runs
Why did the authors artificially construct three multimodel ensembles that sample the internal variability of each model?
because only a small subset of models have at least three ensemble members available under a given emission scenario, we artificially construct three multimodel ensembles that sample the internal variability of each model as follows
What do the model runs confirm about the proposed new method?
we indeed find that our new method, similarly to the spm method, produces maps that are very similar when comparing the three ensembles, confirming that our method maintains the desired quality of not being strongly dependent on the particular sampling of natural variability (the specific run included for each model when more than one run is available), at least for an ensemble of the typical cmip3 size (see figures s3 and s4 in the auxiliary material
in the methodology proposed in this paper we are testing for significance within each model by using the variance estimated from within each of the model runs. we therefore want to test that our method is robust when using another measure of natural variability which is often considered, i.e., the different realizations that are available from an individual model ' s ensemble members. because only a small subset of models have at least three ensemble members available under a given emission scenario, we artificially construct three multimodel ensembles that sample the internal variability of each model as follows. we use all the models that performed runs under the three sres scenarios prescribed under cmip3 (b1, a1b and a2), treating the three individual scenario runs for each model as a surrogate of an initial condition ensemble. in order to make the signal of climate change comparable across these three " members " and use them to only span a range of variations due to natural variability and model uncertainty (but not scenarios), we select the 20yr period around the time when the multimodel mean global average surface temperature under each scenario reaches 1degc above the reference period. this procedure thus produces three ensembles including the same 14 models producing climate change of similar magnitude, but made of runs whose individual behavior spans three realizations of natural variability. we indeed find that our new method, similarly to the spm method, produces maps that are very similar when comparing the three ensembles, confirming that our method maintains the desired quality of not being strongly dependent on the particular sampling of natural variability (the specific run included for each model when more than one run is available), at least for an ensemble of the typical cmip3 size (see figures s3 and s4 in the auxiliary material).
After 20 years of the USGCRP, what are the negative critiques against it and positive advances that have been made?
on the one hand, the program has been critiqued in the recent past for providing inadequate decision support and for lacking the appropriate mechanisms to fully engage in research that might illuminate how to best rectify that deficiency. on the other hand, there have been some real advances made in understanding how to create usable science for decision making and how science policies can support such efforts effectively, particularly in the area of seasonal climate forecast use
Without a deliberate effort to create opportunities for iterativity, acknowledge user needs and orient programs accordingly, what do scientific organizations risk being?
without a deliberate effort to create opportunities for iterativity, acknowledge user needs and orient programs accordingly, scientific organizations risk being ineffective ''loading dock'' style programs and potential users will continue to lack critical knowledge to inform their decisions
What metrics does the author suggest the USGCRP may want to consider?
programs such as the usgcrp may want to consider metrics that more accurately reflect the importance of the co-production process and the perception of usability as judged by decision makers
relationship between those tasked with supporting decision making and potential users (christerson, personal communication). whereas these are more difficult to measure and do not map well to metrics for academic achievement, they can potentially be more useful in helping programs move in the right direction lemos and morehouse, 2005; nrc, 2005, 2007 ). and where it may be difficult to judge whether usable science or decision support has been effective moser, 2009; romsdahl and pyke, 2009 ), it is critical to consider the question of what constitutes success in decision support up front when designing such programs moser, 2009 ). 5. conclusion twenty years after its initiation, the usgcrp stands at a crossroads of opportunity. on the one hand, the program has been critiqued in the recent past for providing inadequate decision support and for lacking the appropriate mechanisms to fully engage in research that might illuminate how to best rectify that deficiency. on the other hand, there have been some real advances made in understanding how to create usable science for decision making and how science policies can support such efforts effectively, particularly in the area of seasonal climate forecast use. the factors that enable or constrain the emergence of usable science can be thought of as either contextual, that is within the context of where the information is needed, or intrinsic, that is within the process of the production of science itself. favorable conditions on both sides can critically influence the usability of science for decision making. empirical evidence from the use of seasonal climate forecasts suggests that iterativity between scientists and users of knowledge is critical to the successful production of usable science. without a deliberate effort to create opportunities for iterativity, acknowledge user needs and orient programs accordingly, scientific organizations risk being ineffective ''loading dock'' style programs and potential users will continue to lack critical knowledge to inform their decisions. however, one cannot assume that the job of connecting or coproducing scientific knowledge with users will happen automatically. rather we argue that there needs to be a concerted effort to own the problem of producing usable science. ownership of the problem of creating usable science rests both on scientific organizations and those organizations that might benefit from the knowledge produced. there are a wide variety of institutional arrangements and mechanisms, requiring different degrees of capacity and resources, that can help better connect scientific knowledge to users. they range from an embedded expert within a user organization to a full-fledged boundary organization that both carries out research and mediates between the world of science and users. finally, addressing the details of policies for usable science means we need to examine how the process of science works and whether it is conducive to fostering usable science. as the empirical literature suggests, simply identifying a potential use, or hoping that information might be useful, is not enough to ensure usability. attention to the process of selecting and conducting projects, including the flexibility of the research agenda and of the research team can improve the responsiveness of research to user needs. also of critical importance are the longevity and continuity of research projects and the metrics by which usable science programs are evaluated. programs such as the usgcrp may want to consider metrics that more accurately reflect the importance of the co-production process and the perception of usability as judged by decision makers. without considering how science policies enable or constrain the production of usable science, climate research programs will likely miss further opportunities to more effectively support climate-related decision making.
Why was the vegetative growth rate of 231 individuals measured?
the vegetative growth rate of 231 individuals was measured as the mean length-increment of a randomly selected major branch between 1996 and 1999
How was the growth rate regressed?
this growth rate was regressed against abiotic environmental conditions using ordinary least-squares regression
How were Non-linear effects tested?
non-linear effects were tested for by restricted cubic splines with four knots
the vegetative growth rate of 231 individuals was measured as the mean length-increment of a randomly selected major branch between 1996 and 1999. this growth rate was regressed against abiotic environmental conditions using ordinary least-squares regression. both linear and non-linear effects were considered. non-linear effects were tested for by restricted cubic splines with four knots. moreover, we tested for all two-way interactions among predictors. model and predictor significances were obtained from the wald test statistic assuming a chi-square distribution with one degree of freedom (harrell 2001). the full model was reduced by backward elimination, knot reduction and linearization, respectively (threshold
Can the direction of the effect (greater or lesser cloudiness) in response to cosmic ray changes be predicted?
he direction of the effect (greater or lesser cloudiness) in response to cosmic ray changes cannot be predicted with any confidence
What was the difference between ion-aerosol clear-air and near-cloud mechanisms with respect to changes in the cosmic ray intensity?
in the former case, the aerosol charges are small-- typically a few e --and insensitive to cosmic ray intensity. in this mechanism, the sensitivity to the ion-pair production rate arises because each newly created ion is capable of seeding a new aerosol particle. in the latter case, the aerosol charges are large--around 100 e --and the magnitude of the charge depends directly on the cosmic ray intensity through its effects both on ion-pair concentrations and on the vertical electric field (ion drift velocity
the near-cloud mechanism may include several processes operating at once, and the direction of the effect (greater or lesser cloudiness) in response to cosmic ray changes cannot be predicted with any confidence. finally, it is useful to contrast the important differences between the ion-aerosol clear-air and near-cloud mechanisms with respect to changes in the cosmic ray intensity. in the former case, the aerosol charges are small-- typically a few e --and insensitive to cosmic ray intensity. in this mechanism, the sensitivity to the ion-pair production rate arises because each newly created ion is capable of seeding a new aerosol particle. in the latter case, the aerosol charges are large--around 100 e --and the magnitude of the charge depends directly on the cosmic ray intensity through its effects both on ion-pair concentrations and on the vertical electric field (ion drift velocity). however, little is known about the effect of charged aerosols on cloud microphysics, and how it varies with the magnitude or perhaps sign of the charge; and even less is known quantitatively about the response to variations of cosmic ray intensity.
What are the consequences of afforestation?
afforestation leads to c accumulation in living biomass, coarse woody debris, and soil organic carbon (soc), with the relative importance of accumulation in these pools varying considerably across different biomes
Where can we find greater and larger SOC accumulations?
greater soc gains are found in soils containing more clay, previous land use that involved greater soil disturbance (eg cropland), cooler climates (eg slowing decomposition losses), and the inclusion of deciduous trees; smaller increases occur when forests replace grasslands or pastures (laganiere et al 2010). large soc accumulations are often found in older boreal forests (harden et al 2000
afforestation leads to c accumulation in living biomass, coarse woody debris, and soil organic carbon (soc), with the relative importance of accumulation in these pools varying considerably across different biomes. potential rates of c accumulation in living biomass are generally highest in tropical forest regions and decrease toward the poles (grace 2004). large regional variations are possible, however; for example, old-growth temperate forests in the pacific northwest of the us can store the same amount of c in living biomass as similarly aged tropical forests (hudiburg et al 2009). soc sequestration potential depends on the history of land use, soil texture, climate, and the species of trees used in forestry projects. greater soc gains are found in soils containing more clay, previous land use that involved greater soil disturbance (eg cropland), cooler climates (eg slowing decomposition losses), and the inclusion of deciduous trees; smaller increases occur when forests replace grasslands or pastures (laganiere et al 2010). large soc accumulations are often found in older boreal forests (harden et al 2000). the variability in living biomass and soc suggests that the rate and total c storage capacity aboveand belowground should be estimated for any given forestry project.
Why is it necessary to build a simple groundwater flow model to simulate the long-term position of the water table?
as a means to interpolate and synthesize the scattered observations presented earlier, we build a simple groundwater flow model to simulate the long-term position of the water table
What are some limitations of the water table observations?
the water table observations discussed above have several limitations (biased toward river valleys and coastal regions; biased toward large and productive aquifers; snapshots at different times at different places; contain large pumping effects
the water table observations discussed above have several limitations (biased toward river valleys and coastal regions; biased toward large and productive aquifers; snapshots at different times at different places; contain large pumping effects), which prevent us from systematically assessing the inherent spatial patterns that result from fundamental drivers such as climate and geology. as a means to interpolate and synthesize the scattered observations presented earlier, we build a simple groundwater flow model to simulate the long-term position of the water table. figure 4. (a) hourly precipitation at bound brook; hourly water table at (b) morrell and (c) readington, with (d and e) 180th-270th day enlarged; and (f) the location of observations.
What is the importance of Model intercomparison projects?
model intercomparison projects have become an important method to assess the uncertainty and robustness of model predictions where no reference solutions are known
What does Phase 5 (CMIP5) provides?
phase 5 (cmip5) of this project taylor et al ., 2012], thus follows on previous cmips and provides a new experimental framework that addresses traditional topics of cmip, as for example climate change projections for scenarios of the future, as well as new topics, as for instance decadal climate prediction
What was an important addition to CMIP5?
an important addition to cmip5 was the inclusion of idealized simulations designed to advance understanding
model intercomparison projects have become an important method to assess the uncertainty and robustness of model predictions where no reference solutions are known. this method has been used increasingly since the late 1980s cess et al ., 1989; gates et al ., 1999; lambert and boer 2001], especially for the assessment of climate change in which the coupled model intercomparison project (cmip) has come to play an important role. phase 5 (cmip5) of this project taylor et al ., 2012], thus follows on previous cmips and provides a new experimental framework that addresses traditional topics of cmip, as for example climate change projections for scenarios of the future, as well as new topics, as for instance decadal climate prediction. an important addition to cmip5 was the inclusion of idealized simulations designed to advance understanding. at the max-planck-institute for meteorology, cmip5 was seen as an opportunity to merge a number of developments and define a new model system and test our understanding of its behavior. the resulting max-planck-institute earth system model (mpi-esm) has been employed in a large number of cmip5 experiments. the goal of this article is to provide an overview
What sparked widespread concern about biodiversity in Southeast Asia and across the tropics?
the rapid expansion of oil palm cultivation and corresponding deforestation
What is the size of the crowns of the 80-year-old farmers?
eightyear-old oil palm plantations had 4 m open-canopies
Which plantation had the most microlime, young or old?
old plantations had significantly more buffered microclimates than young plantations
the rapid expansion of oil palm cultivation and corresponding deforestation has invoked widespread concern for biodiversity in southeast asia and throughout the tropics. however, no study explicitly addresses how habitat characteristics change when (1) forest is converted to oil palm, or (2) through the dynamic 25-30-year oil palm lifecycle. these two questions are fundamental to understanding how biodiversity will be impacted by oil palm development. our results from a chronosequence study on microclimate and vegetation structure in oil palm plantations surrounding the pasoh forest reserve, peninsular malaysia, show dramatic habitat changes when forest is converted to oil palm. however, they also reveal substantial habitat heterogeneity throughout the plantation lifecycle. oil palm plantations are created by clear-cutting forests and then terracing the land. this reduces the 25 m-tall forest canopy to bare ground with a harsh microclimate. eightyear-old oil palm plantations had 4 m open-canopies; 22-year-old plantations had 13 m closed-canopies. old plantations had significantly more buffered microclimates than young plantations. understory vegetation was twice as tall in young plantations, but leaf litter depth and total epiphyte abundance were double in old plantations. nonetheless, leaf litter coverage was patchy throughout the oil palm life cycle due to the stacking of all palm fronds. overall, oil palm plantations were substantially hotter (+2.84*c) and drier (+0.80 hpa vapor pressure deficit), than forests during diurnal hours. however, there were no nocturnal microclimate differences between forests and plantations. finally, we describe how the variable retention of old palm trees during crop rotation can retain habitat features and maintain more stable microclimate conditions than clear-cutting senescent plantations. we discuss the implications of habitat changes for biodiversity and introduce three methods to utilize temporal habitat heterogeneity to enhance the quality of the oil palm landscape matrix.
What is the model overview?
we created a simulation model to explore the impact of climate warming on communities across latitude (fig. 1
How did you estimate shifts in the climate envelope for each species?
we used changes in mean temperature at each location to estimate shifts in the climate envelope for each species
Why did you choose the A2 scenario?
we chose to use the a2 scenario because it may be the most relevant under current greenhouse gas emissions (raupach et al. 2007
model overview we created a simulation model to explore the impact of climate warming on communities across latitude (fig. 1). for our purposes,  community  refers to all species from a single mountain transect. for each published transect study (appendix s1), we simulated a mountain characterised by a thermal gradient with temperatures becoming progressively cooler with increasing elevation. we then imposed climate warming, which altered the range of habitable elevations. finally, we explored several dispersal scenarios (see below), and the ensuing communities were observed for loss of species  range overlap, or co-occurrence, which could come about due to extinctions or differences in rates of dispersal. we used loss of co-occurrences and extinctions to indicate the potential for community disassembly. model simulation for each dispersal scenario, we conducted a single model run with the exception of the random dispersal scenario (see below), which we ran 10 times. each run was initiated by converting the elevational range of species on a mountain into a temperature  envelope  describing the thermal conditions under which the species currently occurs. we converted species  elevational range limits to temperature values using site-specific estimates for elevational lapse rates (fan van den dool 2008). average temperatures for each transect site were based on global mean surface-air temperatures for the years 1961-1990 (new et al. 2002). to estimate future shifts in the temperature envelope for each species, we used temperature projections from the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc 2007) based on special report on emissions scenario a2. we chose to use the a2 scenario because it may be the most relevant under current greenhouse gas emissions (raupach et al. 2007). as model simulations of current climates are offset from actual climates, we eliminated bias in projected warming following methods in deutsch et al. (2008). we used changes in mean temperature at each location to estimate shifts in the climate envelope for each species, and used this shift to assess both the movement of
What are the species contributions about to network robustness?
the species contributions to network robustness are often examined as a function of species degree ki; that is, the number of species a given species interacts with
What is species strength?
in addition to ki, we also calculate a weighted measure of interaction intensity (barrat et al. 2004), known as species strength (bascompte et al. 2006
the species contributions to network robustness are often examined as a function of species degree ki; that is, the number of species a given species interacts with. the assumption is that the greater the degree of a species, the greater its contribution to network robustness. in addition to ki, we also calculate a weighted measure of interaction intensity (barrat et al. 2004), known as species strength (bascompte et al. 2006). species strength si is a quantitative extension of species degree, and can be defined as the sum of dependences dij (or co-occurrence, see below) between pairs of species i and j si x n j  1 aijdij (2) where aij determines whether species i and j are connected (aij 1) or not (aij 0). the loss of a species linked with several highly dependent species is considered to affect network robustness more than a species with fewer links
Which scheme provides 100 days of wage employment to rural household who are unskilled labour.
the national rural employment guarantee scheme (nregs, legally guarantees provision of at least 100 days of wage employment to rural households whose adult members are willing to do unskilled manual labour
Which state government launched Arogya Sree.
arogya sree (a medical insurance scheme of the andhra pradesh state government
What is the full form of PDS and what is the function of it.
the public distribution system (pds, supply of foodgrains at reasonable prices by the department of public distribution
d men and women farmers rely on institutional support but have different levels of access this section describes the broad findings regarding men's and women's access to and use of institutional support (mostly through government and ngo programmes), and also highlights some areas that warrant further investigation. livelihood support to farmers the farmers in the study area found support for farming and food security from numerous sources. the top four programmes were the public distribution system (pds, supply of foodgrains at reasonable prices by the department of public distribution); the national rural employment guarantee scheme (nregs, legally guarantees provision of at least 100 days of wage employment to rural households whose adult members are willing to do unskilled manual labour); arogya sree (a medical insurance scheme of the andhra pradesh state government); and thrift and credit self-help groups. the large majority of participants also reported receiving assistance from the government bank. in the study area, government subsidies for inputs, microirrigation, and information on agriculture were accessed, as were employment and food distribution schemes. in general, prior to an extreme event or dry season, institutional support was available in the form of information on cropping patterns; credit; crop insurance and government subsidized seeds. in the event of a dry season or drought, institutional support was mostly in the form of a loan waiver; subsidized food through the public distribution system; and wages via the national rural employment guarantee scheme. key findings: t 1. farmers reported a strong reliance on support from government employment schemes and loans. t 2. men and women farmers made different use of the available institutional support and it appeared that women had limited access to information relevant to farming in comparison to men.
What factors can limit or enhance managers' ability to implement options?
factors that can limit or enhance managers' ability to implement options may be technical, economic, social, or political
Is it mandated by law to preserve and protect the nation's natural resources?
the federal land and water management systems reviewed in ccsp 2008 are mandated by law to preserve and protect the nation's natural resources
What is a good example of an existing management plan setting the stage for climate adaptation?
a good example is the forest service's adoption of an early detection/rapid response strategy for invasive species (joyce and others 2008 
barriers and opportunities for implementation although there may be many theoretically possible adaptation strategies, a very real consideration for managers is whether they are feasible. factors that can limit or enhance managers' ability to implement options may be technical, economic, social, or political. understanding these barriers helps in assessing the feasibility of specific adaptation options and identifying corresponding opportunities for improving implementation success. barriers and opportunities can be divided into four categories: (1) legislation and regulations, (2) management policies and procedures, (3) human and financial capital, and (4) information and science. as pertains to protected areas in the united states, these barriers and opportunities stem from mission statements and management principles. the federal land and water management systems reviewed in ccsp 2008 are mandated by law to preserve and protect the nation's natural resources. however, the specific management goals vary across systems due to the unique mission statements articulated in their founding legislations. missions are then manifested through management principles that interpret those goals in ways that may inhibit or enhance the capability to adapt. legislation and regulations federal land and water managers can use existing legislative tools opportunistically by applying traditional features or levers in non-traditional ways (see table 8 ). for example, legislative features can be used to coordinate management outside of jurisdictional boundaries. generally, the united states fish and wildlife service has ample proprietary authority to engage in transplantation/relocation, habitat engineering (including irrigation-hydrologic management), and captive breeding to support conservation (scott and others 2008 ). these activities are especially applicable to managing shifts in species distributions and preventing species extirpations likely to result from climate change. portions of existing legislation could also be used to influence dam operations at the state level as a means of providing adaptive flow controls under future climate changes (e.g., using the clean water act to prevent low flows in vulnerable stream reaches, adjusting thermal properties of flows). as these examples suggest, climate change impacts often can be addressed within existing legislative frameworks. management policies and procedures each management system mandates the development of a management plan. developing climate change adaptation strategies should be part of all planning exercises, both at the level of individual units and collaboratively with other management units. this might encourage more units in the same broad geographical area to look for opportunities to coordinate on the development of regional management plans (see table 9 ). a natural next step then would be to prioritize actions within the management plan. different approaches may be used at different scales to decide on management activities across the public lands network or at specific sites. such planning has already occurred in the national forest system, where the olympic, mt. baker, and gifford pinchot national forests have combined resources to produce coordinated plans (joyce and others 2008 ). the olympic national forest's exemplary strategic planning process also enables climate change considerations to be incorporated via its specific guidance on prioritization. in some cases, existing management plans may already set the stage for climate adaptation. a good example is the forest service's adoption of an early detection/rapid response strategy for invasive species (joyce and others 2008 ). this same thinking could be translated to an early detection/rapid response management approach to climate impacts. even destructive extreme climate events can become management opportunities for addressing longstanding problems such as overbuilding in floodplains or degradation of coastal wetlands; in some estuaries it may be possible for decision makers to use up-front planning to prevent rebuilding in hazardous areas of high flood risk and to restore wetlands with provisions for their upland migration with sea level rise (peterson and others 2008 ).
What is the ONF and what is their goal?
olympic national forest (onf) aggressively attempts to remove and control exotic plant species to reduce impacts on native plant species and animal habitat
What does reducing exotic plant species accomplish?
reducing exotic plant species increases resistance of native vegetation to climate change by eliminating a stressor that increases competition
What was EDRR originally conceived for?
originally conceived as a tool for conserving native biological diversity, edrr is improving resistance of native systems to a warming climate
olympic national forest (onf) aggressively attempts to remove and control exotic plant species to reduce impacts on native plant species and animal habitat. monitoring is used to locate and report exotic species when populations are still small and isolated early detection ). a decision is then made on whether it is possible to eradicate or significantly reduce the distribution and abundance of the plant, and an appropriate action is implemented rapid response ). reducing exotic plant species increases resistance of native vegetation to climate change by eliminating a stressor that increases competition. many exotic species, especially annuals, are more competitive than native species in a warmer climate and especially fol lowing disturbance. onf uses early detection-rapid response (edrr) to reduce populations of japanese knotweed polygonum cuspidatum siebold zucc.) and other knotweeds (polygonaceae) that spread along riparian corridors through prolific seed dispersal and dense root systems, rapidly displacing native species. knotweed can be so competitive that it excludes regeneration of trees, thus reducing the potential for conifers and hardwoods to grow near streams. lack of trees reduces the potential for woody debris to fall into streams, removing a critical habitat element for pacific salmon populations. multiple mechanical treatments and herbicide applica tions are typically needed to remove knotweed, but this level of effort is considered worthwhile to protect riparian habitat. over 200 exotic plant species currently exist on the olympic peninsula. most of those species are widely distributed and are either mixed with native systems or considered relatively benign (e.g., they cannot survive in shade). it is not realistic to eliminate most of these species, so application of edrr focuses on new arrivals on the landscape. originally conceived as a tool for conserving native biological diversity, edrr is improving resistance of native systems to a warming climate.
How many components is the perceived behavioural control of an agent made up of?
the perceived behavioural control of an agent, or their perception of whether or not they have the assets/capability to undertake a migration adaptation option, is made up of two components
What is the first component an assessment of?
the first of these involves an assessment of whether or not the agent has the assets necessary to undertake the migration option
What is denoted by the binary result that is the final outcome of the calculation?
the final outcome of the calculation is a binary result that denotes whether or not the agent believes they have the means/experience necessary to undertake the migration option being considered
supplementary information relating to perceived behavioural control the perceived behavioural control of an agent, or their perception of whether or not they have the assets/capability to undertake a migration adaptation option, is made up of two components. the first of these involves an assessment of whether or not the agent has the assets necessary to undertake the migration option. the second considers whether or not an agent has previous experience of migration. the final outcome of the calculation is a binary result that denotes whether or not the agent believes they have the means/experience necessary to undertake the migration option being considered.
Explain the purpose of Douglas-Fir and Fonderosa?
the aim of this study was to compare sapwood water transport and storage characteristics in trunks of douglas-fir and ponderosa pine.at first glance,it may seem paradoxical that the vulnerability of sapwood to embolism was highest for both species in the populations growing in the most arid sites
What is the capacity of the population?
however, both capacitance and axial conductivity were also highest in these populations,suggesting that under dynamic conditions of high water loss from transpiration, these traits may play an important role in avoiding levels of xylem tension that would provoke excessive embolism in their more vulnerable trunk wood, compared to branch wood
Draw a brief note on the properties of the Fonderosa pine?
while our results on trunk sapwood may appear to run counter to the often reported trend of decreasing xylem vulnerability of terminal branches with increasing aridity, they highlight the need to measure xylem hydraulic
the aim of this study was to compare sapwood water transport and storage characteristics in trunks of douglas-fir and ponderosa pine.at first glance,it may seem paradoxical that the vulnerability of sapwood to embolism was highest for both species in the populations growing in the most arid sites. however, both capacitance and axial conductivity were also highest in these populations,suggesting that under dynamic conditions of high water loss from transpiration, these traits may play an important role in avoiding levels of xylem tension that would provoke excessive embolism in their more vulnerable trunk wood, compared to branch wood. the success of ponderosa pine in occupying drier areas than douglas-fir is most likely associated with a larger suite of functional traits than those characterized here, but their end result seems to be to moderate xylem tension and embolism, thereby extending the period during which stomata are able to remain open for photosynthetic gas exchange. while our results on trunk sapwood may appear to run counter to the often reported trend of decreasing xylem vulnerability of terminal branches with increasing aridity, they highlight the need to measure xylem hydraulic
Who coined the phrase "the god-trick"?
epitomized in donna haraway's phrase the "god-trick
What is one important attribute of stories about glaciers?
stories about glaciers have two important attributes. on the one hand, they are referential like science, they do indeed refer to an external reality that may encompass historical events such as glacial surges
Why are "knowledge bridges" important?
ultimately, we need knowledge bridges that work from local concepts as well as from science if we are to bring broadly based human values to bear on problems such as climate change
oral traditions do differ from science, however, in the cultural models they embody. oral traditions are more transparently reflexive than science, which often seems more likely to bury its assumptions and be less selfconsciously aware of the institutional history of its practices. science achieves its greatest triumphs when it can isolate experimental moments that illuminate causes, consequences, and intersections of variables. the scientist is conceptualized as remaining at a distance from the experiment, and replicability is ensured by submitting to standard practices. in science, attempts to achieve reductive moments, decontextualized knowledge, and absence of actor interference are critical--epitomized in donna haraway's phrase the "god-trick" and steven shapin's (1998) critique of the positionless "view from nowhere." local knowledge embedded in oral tradition remains committed to controlling outcomes (though less interested in predicting them), more like experiential than experimental science. the key distinction is commitment to an active, thoroughly positioned human subject whose behavior is understood to have consequences (such as causing glacial surges). in oral narratives from this region, we hear stories about the importance of human agency, human choice, human responsibility, and the consequences of human behavior, and it is here that one of their contributions to climate change research may lie. narratives underscore the social content of the world and the importance of taking personal and collective responsibility for changes in that world. the performative "working" capacity of oral tradition is crucial here. stories about glaciers have two important attributes. on the one hand, they are referential like science, they do indeed refer to an external reality that may encompass historical events such as glacial surges. on the other hand, narratives centering on glaciers are also constitutive glacier narratives have the power to create or to establish what they signify--in this case, a land that responds to humans in a reciprocal rather than a hostile manner. this constitutive part asserts the ongoing importance of human agency and human responsibility, a perspective that is frequently missing from detached scientific expertise. in the past, then, things and people were always entangled. in the future, they will be more entangled than ever before. local knowledge in northern narratives is about unique entanglements of the physical and the social, and increasingly we see this view in science as well as in northern oral traditions. ultimately, we need knowledge bridges that work from local concepts as well as from science if we are to bring broadly based human values to bear on problems such as climate change. following latour's advice about the need for sciences to address uncertainty, we would do well to take broecker's bridging metaphor that opened this essay as seriously as we take his science: "the climate system is an angry beast and we are poking at it with sticks!"
What is the practical role of existing international structures and agreements?
existing international frameworks and agreements are usually not designed to promote integration between different policy areas, and institutional structures often complicate such integration
Which country will play an important role after post-2012 climate agreements?
in that sense it is important that the bali action plan for post-2012 climate agreements identifies the need to explore the catalytic role of the convention
the third element of this article is the influence of international frameworks and agreements on the mainstreaming of climate change into development policy. realizing climate benefits at the national level can be facilitated or hindered by international policy frameworks and agreements. existing international frameworks and agreements are usually not designed to promote integration between different policy areas, and institutional structures often complicate such integration. so the question is, what opportunities are there to make better use of existing policy frameworks to realize development and climate benefits, and how to design future frameworks and agreements in such a way that they facilitate the implementation of integrated development and climate policies at national level. this obviously means there is a need to go beyond the framework convention on climate change and to broaden the climate agenda (kok and de coninck, 2007; drexhage et al., 2007; jerneck and olsson, 2008). in that sense it is important that the bali action plan for post-2012 climate agreements identifies the need to explore the catalytic role of the convention.
Who analyzed the six ski areas in eastern North America in 2006?
in their analysis of six ski areas in eastern north america, scott et al. 2006 found that snowmaking extended the average ski season between 55 days and 120 days during the baseline period (1961-1990) (table 1 
Who is more concerned about the environmental impact of water withdrawals associated with snowmaking?
communities and environmental organizations have expressed concern about the environmental impact of water withdrawals associated with snowmaking
Where is the largest snowmaking reservoir built in?
construction of water reservoirs may address this constraint. for example, the okemo ski area in vermont has already built the largest snowmaking reservoir in the region (264 million-litre capacity), enabling the resort to 'stockpile' water during the spring and summer for winter use
the importance of snowmaking as an adaptation to climate variability cannot be overstated. in their analysis of six ski areas in eastern north america, scott et al. 2006 found that snowmaking extended the average ski season between 55 days and 120 days during the baseline period (1961-1990) (table 1 ). although snowmaking currently provides large economic dividends in this region, table 1 illustrates that its importance will increase under projected climate change, as the difference in the length of ski seasons with natural snow cover and with snowmaking-enhanced snow cover increases at each location. a comparison of results for similar climate change scenarios between scott et al. 2006 and earlier studies that did not incorporate snowmaking, also demonstrated how important this adaptation was in reducing the vulnerability of the ski industry in eastern north america to climate change. large increases in snowmaking requirements under climate change scenarios also raises important questions about the sustainability of this adaptation strategy in certain locations. communities and environmental organizations have expressed concern about the environmental impact of water withdrawals associated with snowmaking. when water for snowmaking is withdrawn from natural water bodies (streams and lakes), water levels may be reduced at critical times of the year, impacting fish and other marine species. some jurisdictions have strict regulations governing water withdrawals for snowmaking. for example, the state of vermont implemented a 'february mean flow' (fmf) standard, where water withdrawals for snowmaking are not permitted when natural watercourses are at or below the average mean flow. any expansion of snowmaking activities must remain within the standard. under the warmest 2050s scenario for vermont, where a doubling of snowmaking was modelled at one ski area (scott et al. 2006 ), maintaining the fmf standard may be severely tested. construction of water reservoirs may address this constraint. for example, the okemo ski area in vermont has already built the largest snowmaking reservoir in the region (264 million-litre capacity), enabling the resort to 'stockpile' water during the spring and summer for winter use. in other ski regions where water supplies are more limited or greater competition for water exists, access to water is likely to be a critical constraint for snowmaking. for example, owners of
When did transitions occur most rapidly?
the transitions in between occurred rapidly, especially for the warming
How larger were the transitions in the tropical regions?
in the tropical regions the transitions were as large as the difference between full lgm and modern states
Does the abrupt climate change signal appear to be more or less muted with greater distance from the North Atlantic?
hence, the abrupt climate change signal does not appear to become more muted with distance from the north atlantic
according to the studies described in the previous sections, the climate of the north atlantic region, during glacial times, moved between two different states of operation. the transitions in between occurred rapidly, especially for the warming. these rapid climate changes involved striking temperature changes across western europe and eastern north america, enormous in winter but modest in summer. consequently there were abrupt changes in the degree of seasonality. during north atlantic cold stadials surface ocean temperatures in the subtropical north atlantic cooled, the itcz over south america shifted south, the tropical americas cooled and the asian monsoon weakened. in the tropical regions the transitions were as large as the difference between full lgm and modern states. hence, the abrupt climate change signal does not appear to become more muted with distance from the north atlantic. any proposed mechanism must be able to explain these observed climate changes.
What is the topic in this thesis?
the thesis defended in this paper is that climate policies may justify the use of a negative discount rate for their evaluation
What is the point in this thesis argument?
there are two important steps in the argument, each of which is an interesting separate thesis: 1) different policies should be evaluated with different discount rates depending on what populations are impacted; 2) in the long run only the worst scenario for the worst-off fraction of the population counts
Which is the point that we explain in this thesis?
we explain in the penultimate section why the utilitarian approach must be replaced with a more promising approach and how this can affect the discount rate
the thesis defended in this paper is that climate policies may justify the use of a negative discount rate for their evaluation. there are two important steps in the argument, each of which is an interesting separate thesis: 1) different policies should be evaluated with different discount rates depending on what populations are impacted; 2) in the long run only the worst scenario for the worst-off fraction of the population counts. our thesis is at odds with the conclusion of chapter 7 in posner and weisbach (2010 -hereafter pw), even though we share the same premises: impartiality between generations, compatibility with ethical principles, and taking opportunity costs into account. they advocate using the market interest rate as the discount rate for the selection of particular projects. it is an interesting question to understand how our similar premises can deliver very different practical conclusions. the main difference is that we disagree on how to make use of the discount rate. for us, it is a tool to assess and compare different consumption paths or money flows in terms of net present value; for pw, it serves to take into account the opportunity cost of the investment. our thesis is somewhat closer to weitzman's and gollier's arguments in favor of using a small, possibly a negative discount rate (weitzman 1998, gollier 2002), but involves different reasons. the paper is structured as follows. in the next section we briefly review the arguments of the advocates of the descriptive and the prescriptive approaches, in the debate about discounting (the "ethicists" and the "positivists", as called by pw), and discuss agreements and disagreements with pw. then in the next two sections we explain the methodology of computation of the discount and propose a reformulation of the weitzman-gollier set of arguments to the context of risk. the following section explains our core arguments. for the sake of an easy presentation, the bulk of the paper is formulated in the context of utilitarian reasoning, but we explain in the penultimate section why the utilitarian approach must be replaced with a more promising approach and how this can affect the discount rate. the final section concludes.
Why is the information needed?
such information is much needed because glacier retreat is rapid in this region and impacts the role of glacier as water reservoirs
Why the major revisions are recommended?
nevertheless i recommend asking for major revisions because, in its present state, its value for other researchers is quite limited
Which areas of the study must be improved?
the study area and the data are not enough described; the climate study must be improved
general comments the authors address relevant questions on glacier changes and climate trends in the data scarce area of cordillera vilcanota, peru. such information is much needed because glacier retreat is rapid in this region and impacts the role of glacier as water reservoirs. it is a good idea to assimilate a collection of data from multiple sources (satellite, meteorology, climate reanalysis, ground penetrating radar). i have read this paper with great interest. nevertheless i recommend asking for major revisions because, in its present state, its value for other researchers is quite limited. the study area and the data are not enough described; the climate study must be improved; the c481
What is the possiblity caused of the outsized warmings in Antarctica over the last 400,000 years?
were due to a redistribution of heat from north to south has important implications for the milankovitch theory of the ice ages
What were the major implications that resulted in the outsized warmings?
for the role of atmospheric co2 during the ice ages
What was Milankovitch perspective?
the climate system ' s " center of action " is the northern ice sheets
the possibility that the outsized warmings in antarctica over the last 400,000 years were due to a redistribution of heat from north to south has important implications for the milankovitch theory of the ice ages. it also has major implications for the role of atmospheric co2 during the ice ages. 7.1. relationship to the milankovitch hypothesis the milankovitch hypothesis milankovitch 1930] attributes the ice ages to variations of the earth ' s orbit and spin axis that alter the insolation over the northern ice sheets. from the milankovitch perspective, the climate system ' s " center of action " is the northern ice sheets. the hypothesis here adds a second center that operates in the south via the southern westerlies, the ocean ' s overturning circulation, and the carbon cycle. milankovitch [1930] identified three orbital variations, precession, obliquity, and eccentricity, that alter the insolation reaching the earth over three different time scales, 23,000, 41,000, and 100,000 years, respectively. the big problem has always been that the time scale with the largest climate response (100,000 years) is associated with the figure 6. summary of the forcing and response during millennial events, normal precessional cycles, and terminations.
explain Fuel use?
fuel use and emissions testing can be enhanced by improved methods. state-of-the-art instrumentation can provide data in real time on important aerosol characteristics such as size distribution, composition, surface area, light absorption, and light scattering
What is cookstove emissions?
greater use of currently available technologies and development of lower-cost instruments for use in the fi eld could lead to a better understanding of cookstove emissions that a ff ect health and climate
What is particle and explained?
additional metrics that may capture particle toxicity di ff erently than does pm2.5 mass, such as particle size distribution, particle composition, number of particles, and surface area, should also be explored further.60 - 62in addition, aerosol formation and growth models are needed to improve the design and testing of cookstoves
fuel use and emissions testing can be enhanced by improved methods. state-of-the-art instrumentation can provide data in real time on important aerosol characteristics such as size distribution, composition, surface area, light absorption, and light scattering. greater use of currently available technologies and development of lower-cost instruments for use in the fi eld could lead to a better understanding of cookstove emissions that a ff ect health and climate. additional metrics that may capture particle toxicity di ff erently than does pm2.5 mass, such as particle size distribution, particle composition, number of particles, and surface area, should also be explored further.60 - 62in addition, aerosol formation and growth models are needed to improve the design and testing of cookstoves.
What are the determinants considered?
however, whilst these specific characteristics argue strongly for city-scale assessments, it is important that other spatially-defined determinants are considered. for example, a given impact within a city may have differential consequences depending on the relative vulnerabilities of people, ecosystems 3 and infrastructure, etc
Does the adaptation differ?
across the city and accordingly, the form of adaptation may also differ
Does climate change impacts agricultural production?
therefore, climate change impacts on agricultural production or transport infrastructure will have knock-on effects on city populations, just as effects on cities will have knock-on effects that extend far beyond municipal borders
however, whilst these specific characteristics argue strongly for city-scale assessments, it is important that other spatially-defined determinants are considered. for example, a given impact within a city may have differential consequences depending on the relative vulnerabilities of people, ecosystems 3 and infrastructure, etc. across the city and accordingly, the form of adaptation may also differ. it is also important to highlight the interdependencies that exist between the inhabitants of the city, its immediate hinterland, and the wider, global, economic and social context. thus, for example, cities such as london or new york are reliant on food imported from surrounding rural areas, national production and even from other countries. similarly, transport links may support both daily commuter flows from surrounding areas as well as inter-continental movements of personnel and goods. therefore, climate change impacts on agricultural production or transport infrastructure will have knock-on effects on city populations, just as effects on cities will have knock-on effects that extend far beyond municipal borders.
What is widely recognized to be correlated with climate parameters?
the position of the treeline, the upper elevational or latitudinal limit of trees, is widely recognized to be correlated with climatic parameters
Trees often respond to climate warming by what?
trees often respond to climate warming by an increase in the density of individuals rather than real movement of the treeline
What region of Europe has become markedly warmer since the beginning of the 19th century?
northern europe has become markedly warmer since the beginning of the 19th century
climate models predict increases in global mean temperatures of 1.4-5.8  c by the end of the century, in response to increasing concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases resulting from human activities (houghton et al. 2001). this increase is expected to be greatest at high latitudes. northern europe has become markedly warmer since the beginning of the 19th century, particularly in lapland, north fennoscandia (holmgren tjus, 1996). the position of the treeline, the upper elevational or latitudinal limit of trees, is widely recognized to be correlated with climatic parameters, primarily air temperature, which influence tree growth and survival (tranquillini, 1979; slatyer noble, 1992). therefore, monitoring the position of treelines has long been seen as an indicator of global climatic change. many studies have recorded a rise in the treeline, both altitudinal and latitudinal, associated with recent climate warming throughout the world (e.g. lescopsinclair payette, 1995; meshinev et al. 2000). in the swedish part of the scandes mountains, tree limit rising of a majority of species, primarily mountain birch betula pubescens ssp. tortuosa ), norway spruce picea abies and scots pine pinus sylvestris ), has been confirmed in many studies by kullman (2001, 2002). this phenomenon of unique magnitude and rate is commonly attributed to anomalous human-induced climate warming during the past decade (kullman, 2003). however, responses of treeline dynamics to climate change remain complex. trees often respond to climate warming by an increase in the density of individuals rather than real movement of the treeline (lescopsinclair payette, 1995). massive establishment of seedlings does not
Where will sea levels rise?
sea levels will rise almost everywhere but at very different rates, with some areas having very little rise and others over the twice the global average rises
Will sea levels rise equally everywhere?
sea levels will rise almost everywhere but at very different rates, with some areas having very little rise and others over the twice the global average rises
Will islands disappear?
many islands around the world will disappear as sea levels rise
sea levels will rise almost everywhere but at very different rates, with some areas having very little rise and others over the twice the global average rises. the predicted patterns show large increases in sea level in parts of the north pacific. 2 many islands around the world will disappear as sea levels rise. tuvalu may be the first large inhabited island to be lost forever. it comprises nine coral atolls located between australia and hawaii. their highest point is 5 m (15 feet) above seal level. as sea level has risen, tuvalu has experienced lowland flooding. salt water intrusion is adversely affecting drinking water and food production. tuvalu's leaders predict that the nation will be submerged in 50 years, but this may be very optimistic as much of the island is already covered by water at regular intervals during the year. in march 2002 the country's prime minister appealed to australia and new zealand to provide homes for his people if his country is washed away, but the plight of this nation is being ignored. 10 other threatened island nations include the cook islands and the marshall islands. during the past decade, the island of majuro (marshall islands) has lost up to 20% of its beachfront. in addition to island nations, low-lying coastal countries are threatened by rising sea level. a 1 m rise in sea level, inevitable under current co 2 emissions scenarios, would inundate half of bangladesh's rice land and flood large areas of rice-growing nations such as vietnam, china, india and thailand. there are areas of large-scale population particularly vulnerable to sea level rise in the philippines, indonesia and egypt. in 2008, we saw the utter devastation brought to myanmar, where 140 000 people died, already undernourished as a result of the a destroyed economy, living often in huts made from bamboo and palm fronds and abandoned by their government. it took the intervention of private individuals and charities to bring relief to the decimated communities and it is they who are still attempting more free ebooks http://fast-file.blogspot.com
What areas, regarding climate change, require further work?
there remain important areas where further work is required, in particular: the detection and attribution of climate change the understanding and prediction of regional changes in climate and climate extremes
What type of investigations are needed to support the judgment as to what constitutes "dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system"?
the integration of all aspects of the climate change issue into strategies for sustainable development comprehensive and integrated investigations to support the judgment as to what constitutes "dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system
Where has significant progress been made in regards to understanding climate change and the human response to it?
significant progress has been made in the tar in many aspects of the knowledge required to understand climate change and the human response to it
significant progress has been made in the tar in many aspects of the knowledge required to understand climate change and the human response to it. however, there remain important areas where further work is required, in particular: the detection and attribution of climate change the understanding and prediction of regional changes in climate and climate extremes the quantification of climate change impacts at the global, regional, and local levels the analysis of adaptation and mitigation activities the integration of all aspects of the climate change issue into strategies for sustainable development comprehensive and integrated investigations to support the judgment as to what constitutes "dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system." * * * * * *
What is an important life history trait that influences fitness in a variety of ways?
the phenology of reproduction is an important life history trait that influences fitness in a variety of ways
What may lead to failure in finding mates?
reproducing at the wrong time, in advance of or after the appropriate season, may lead to failure in finding mates
What has evolved to rely on environmental cues that have proven to be reliable indicators of appropriate timing of reproductive effort?
the phenology of reproduction has evolved to rely on environmental cues that have proven to be reliable indicators of appropriate timing of reproductive effort
the phenology of reproduction is an important life history trait that influences fitness in a variety of ways. reproducing at the wrong time, in advance of or after the appropriate season, may lead to failure in finding mates, failure to match demands of growing offspring with temporal peaks in food resources (e.g., visser et al. 1998), or failure by a pollinator to find pollen and nectar, or failure of a flower to be pollinated. given these potentially severe consequences, it is not surprising that in many cases the phenology of reproduction has evolved to rely on environmental cues that have proven to be reliable indicators of appropriate timing of reproductive effort. an ecological and evolutionary dilemma is posed to a variety of organisms now because of the environmental changes accompanying global climate change. can they respond in appropriate ways to these ongoing changes so that their phenology remains synchronous with other species with which they interact? and can they adjust their responses to previously reliable environmental cues for timing of reproduction? these questions are difficult to answer without long-term observations and experiments. the phenology of flowering by herbaceous wildflowers at high altitudes where there is significant snowfall is primarily a consequence of one environmental event, the disappearance of the snowpack (inouye and wielgolaski 2003). this event is in turn influenced by a variety of factors, including global, regional, and local climate. global influences include ongoing changes in temperature and precipitation regimes, with high-altitude environments warming and receiving more precipitation as rain instead of snow (beniston and fox 1996, johnson 1998). regional influences on snowpack in the western united states include the el nin~ o/southern oscillation
Why might natural disasters more greatly affect individuals who live in developing countries?
natural disasters, such as earthquakes, floods, and hurricanes 'take a heavy toll on the mental health of the people involved, most of whom live in developing countries, where capacity to take care of these problems is extremely limited' (who, 2001, p43). this is especially problematic as 'more than 40% of countries have no mental health policy and
If a person doesn't have any mental disorders, does that mean they're mentally healthy?
mental health is broader than a lack of mental disorders
How is mental and physical health intertwined?
major life stressors, like natural disasters can influence the constitutional status of the body and increase susceptibility not only to physical illness, but may also affect mental health (phifer et al. 1988), and the mental health consequences of exposure of these disasters 'have not been fully addressed by those in the field of disaster preparedness or service delivery
in their 2001 world health report (who, 2001) the world health organisation (who) stated: 'mental health has been defined variously by scholars from different cultures. concepts of mental health include subjective well-being, perceived self-efficacy, autonomy, competence, intergenerational dependence, and self-actualisation of one's intellectual and emotional potential, among others. from a cross-cultural perspective, it is nearly impossible to define mental health comprehensively. it is however, generally agreed that mental health is broader than a lack of mental disorders'. (who, 2001, p 5) box 3.2 sets out typical symptoms and forms of mental illness. there are complex interactions between physical and mental health. in general, major life stressors, like natural disasters can influence the constitutional status of the body and increase susceptibility not only to physical illness, but may also affect mental health (phifer et al. 1988), and the mental health consequences of exposure of these disasters 'have not been fully addressed by those in the field of disaster preparedness or service delivery' (gerrity and flynn, 1997, p101). natural disasters, such as earthquakes, floods, and hurricanes 'take a heavy toll on the mental health of the people involved, most of whom live in developing countries, where capacity to take care of these problems is extremely limited' (who, 2001, p43). this is especially problematic as 'more than 40% of countries have no mental health policy and
Quais sÃ£o os exemplos de adptaÃ§Ã£o citados no texto?
green roofs, sustainable drainage systems or urban tree planting projects
How can we use adaptation actions?
actions such as these may be supported by wider capacity building exercises, such as legislation, planning strategies and guidance
What is the purpose of the databases?
the aim of this database of case studies is to showcase climate change adaptation approaches, with a particular emphasis on those relating to green and blue infrastructure
climate change adaptation case study databases, particularly those relating to green and blue infrastructure, often focus on the physical elements of new developments or modifications to the built or natural environment. examples of adaptation actions include green roofs, sustainable drainage systems or urban tree planting projects. actions such as these may be supported by wider capacity building exercises, such as legislation, planning strategies and guidance, which help to provide a framework to support their implementation. capacity building approaches relating to developing such frameworks are sometimes presented as case studies, although generally not as often as the adaptation actions themselves. therefore, this database focuses predominantly on capacity building approaches needed to support the development of adaptation actions 'ontheground'. however, other useful sources of information about green and blue infrastructure adaptation responses are signposted in the database (see appendices 1 and 2). the aim of this database of case studies is to showcase climate change adaptation approaches, with a particular emphasis on those relating to green and blue infrastructure. rather than focus on the physical elements of the case studies, the database describes in detail the process that have supported the implementation of adaptation responses in a range of urban areas across the world. the case studies therefore identify and highlight key factors in different areas (e.g. governance, stakeholder relationships, science and research) that influenced the success of adaptation responses in different locations. it is hoped that the database will meet an important need in terms of progressing green and blue infrastructure adaptation responses, and will act as a valuable resource for a wide range of stakeholder communities engaged in these activities.
What have research on future threats to diversity focused on?
research on future threats to diversity has focused on predicting extinctions that will result from climate change and habitat loss (e.g., davis and zabinski 1992, walker and steffen 1996
Which latitudes are occupied by the plant species predicted to expand in the Piedmont?
on the basis of climate relationships, the plant species predicted to expand in the piedmont, such as longleaf pine pinus palustris ), currently occupy lower latitudes and elevations of the coastal plain (iverson et al. 1999; fig. 1
What does uncertainty associated with the source of future occupants suggest?
uncertainty associated with the source of future occupants suggests that ecosystem function may differ in ways that are not captured by approaches now in use
research on future threats to diversity has focused on predicting extinctions that will result from climate change and habitat loss (e.g., davis and zabinski 1992, walker and steffen 1996). species richness prediction (srp) attempts to summarize complex responses to global change in terms of numbers of extinctions. the most widely used srp approaches involve methods developed independently to understand the consequences of climate change and habitat loss, i.e., climate envelopes and species-area relationships, respectively. the challenges of srp are especially evident at the regional scale. for example, like much of the globe, climate in the southeastern united states is expected to change dramatically. by mid-century, we can expect changes as extreme as a mean annual temperature increase of 1-7 8 c, a 30 decrease in summer precipitation, and a 25 increase in spring rainfall (mearns et al. 2003). increased aridity could result in a dramatic shift from temperate deciduous forest to southern mixed forest or even savanna, with increased importance of species from lower latitudes and elevations (bachelet et al. 2001). responses to global warming will be superimposed on complex landscapes. three major subregions in the southeastern united states, the coastal plain, piedmont, and southern appalachians, not only possess distinct climates, but they are also characterized by contrasting topography and soil parent material. the southeastern piedmont could become too arid for virginia pine pinus virginiana ), and possibly even for loblolly and shortleaf pines p. taeda and p. echinata ). on the basis of climate relationships, the plant species predicted to expand in the piedmont, such as longleaf pine pinus palustris ), currently occupy lower latitudes and elevations of the coastal plain (iverson et al. 1999; fig. 1). however, coastal plain soils are dominated by sand and peat, with low nitrogen availability, high water tables, and historically high fire frequency (christensen 2000). species adapted to these conditions may not thrive on the clay-rich soils of the piedmont. clearly, a simple pole-ward shift in climate envelopes is not likely to provide useful predictions of future diversity in this region. instead, the southeastern united states may see a combination of climate, soil, and land cover changes best suited to species that are not currently in the region. uncertainty associated with the source of future occupants suggests that ecosystem function may differ in ways that are not captured by approaches now in use
how plateaus and mountains are underlined?
areas in the high mountains and on the high plateaux not covered in perennial snow and ice are underlain by permafrost
Especially in which country it is mostly seen?
the areas of permafrost are much larger than those covered by glaciers or perennial snow, especially in china (about 2.15x106 sq.km
areas in the high mountains and on the high plateaux not covered in perennial snow and ice are underlain by permafrost. recent studies show that the extent of permafrost is shrinking and that active layer thickness (the upper portion of soil that thaws each summer) is increasing, and this has altered the hydrological cycle, vegetation composition, and carbon dioxide and methane fl uxes that appear linked to permafrost degradation (lawrence and slater 2005). the areas of permafrost are much larger than those covered by glaciers or perennial snow, especially in china (about 2.15x106 sq.km).this factor plays a critical role in terms of slope stability, ecology, erosion processes, and surface waters, and
Approximately how many liters of water are needed to grow 1 kg of wheat?
1000 l of water
Climate change induced conflict has increased which conditions?
stress and post-traumatic stress
A vegetarian diet uses approximately how many liters of water per person?
2000 l
the misuse of water by creating inappropriate climates to improve specialised forms of agriculture (eg, to water beef and dairy cattle and other livestock in arid environments where they are not indigenous and to service waste disposal systems that use excessive amounts of water) might undermine eff orts to tackle climate change through positive social action. farmers use about three-quarters of the world's water supply: to grow 1 kg of wheat requires around 1000 l of water, whereas 1 kg of beef takes as much as 15 000 l. american or european diets require around 5000 l of water per person every day, whereas african or asian vegetarian diets use about 2000 l per person every day.141 the social and political challenge of shifting dietary practices is enormous, especially as populations start to eat more meat as they climb out of poverty. issues of desertifi cation are well documented and potentially catastrophic. tidal surges that salinate and pollute fresh-water reservoirs and wells cause mass migrations as changes in monsoon patterns necessitate the movement of populations out of areas where fresh water was once available. however, because water is essential, its misuse has remarkable knock-on eff ects. deforestation and logging create pools of water that, when exposed to sun, allow mosquitoes and other vectors to fl ourish. vectors might unexpectedly bring new infections to formerly temperate climates (eg, dengue fever in north america). more troubling, however, is the way in which water is increasingly being used as a cultural weapon. diverting water for personal benefi t is ancient. but nowadays water has become a powerful way to oppress vulnerable populations. some evidence indicates that the forceful movement of vulnerable populations against their will into camps that have limited access to water leads to oppression of women and abduction of children into military splinter groups and armies.142 stress and post-traumatic stress are increasingly a result of climate-change-induced confl ict.
Explain climate science reporting?
in this milieu, the findings here show that through the journalistic norm of ' balance ' u.s. television news coverage has been deficient in anthropogenic climate science reporting
Define anthropogenic climate science?
the institutionalized and professional journalistic practice of balanced reporting has served to amplify a minority view that human ' s role in climate change is debated or negligent, and has concurrently engendered an appearance of increased uncertainty regarding anthropogenic climate science
Explain humans ' role in changing?
humans ' role in changing the climate contribute to the destabilization of key interests and stakeholders - from carbon-based energy industry to fossil-fuel consumers. consequently, anthropogenic climate change has remained a discursive
in this milieu, the findings here show that through the journalistic norm of ' balance ' u.s. television news coverage has been deficient in anthropogenic climate science reporting. the institutionalized and professional journalistic practice of balanced reporting has served to amplify a minority view that human ' s role in climate change is debated or negligent, and has concurrently engendered an appearance of increased uncertainty regarding anthropogenic climate science. this ' policy-relevant ' information, in turn, enters a highly contested arena when it permeates climate policy discourse and is used in policy decision-making (mccright and dunlap 2003 ).4when mass media coverage distorts rather than clarifies scientific understanding of anthropogenic climate change, it can greatly impact how u.s. federal policy actors both perceive and approach actions and remedies (trumbo 1996 ). questions of humans ' role in changing the climate contribute to the destabilization of key interests and stakeholders - from carbon-based energy industry to fossil-fuel consumers. consequently, anthropogenic climate change has remained a discursive
Why Group discussion important in decision making process?
group discussion provides a greater chance that multiple sources of information--both experiential and analytic--will be considered as part of the decision-making process
What are the advantages of group discussion ?
the example (below, left) illustrates how group discussion led to both better understanding of a probabilistic climate forecast and to generation (and eventual implementation) of more sound agricultural coping strategies
Why should group discussion should be included in climate science models?
as the example (below, right) shows, communicators should point out the probabilistic nature of climate science models and, when possible, engage and encourage group discussion about the uncertainties associated with climate change
group discussion provides a greater chance that multiple sources of information--both experiential and analytic--will be considered as part of the decision-making process. more energy is devoted to implementing solutions after group discussion. furthermore, group context increases awareness of social support and activates social goals (see section 6). the example (below, left) illustrates how group discussion led to both better understanding of a probabilistic climate forecast and to generation (and eventual implementation) of more sound agricultural coping strategies. as the example (below, right) shows, communicators should point out the probabilistic nature of climate science models and, when possible, engage and encourage group discussion about the uncertainties associated with climate change.
Who is the another known climate contrarian who appeared several times within the cross-section of articles?
another known climate contrarian who appeared several times within the cross-section of articles is john christy of the university of alabama in huntsville
What has National Public Radio (NPR) reported?
national public radio (npr) has reported that senator inhofe's proclamation that global warming is a hoax was based in part on the work of christy harris, 2004
What is governmental bias traceable to?
governmental bias is traceable to 'a clinton [a]dministration product that was based on bad science
another known climate contrarian who appeared several times within the cross-section of articles is john christy of the university of alabama in huntsville. national public radio (npr) has reported that senator inhofe's proclamation that global warming is a hoax was based in part on the work of christy harris, 2004 ). according to the website of the conservative independent institute, christy (2003) is on this group's panel on global warming. a press release (28 july 2003) from this organisation stated that a report based on the research of christy and others, which appears to be non-peer-reviewed, included findings that satellite data show 'significantly less [warming] than forecast by climate models that are based on bad science' and governmental bias is traceable to 'a clinton [a]dministration product that was based on bad science'.30according to corporate records, exxonmobil contributed
What is important to not about the carbon cycle mechanisms?
it is important to note that these results contain no carbon cycle mechanisms
How des the inversion methodology obtain consistency with the atmospheric CO2 observations?
the inversion methodology simply distributes net carbon exchange in space and time
Regional aggregated temperature and precipitation time series for the time period 1980-2006 revealed what kind of relationships?
distinct seasonal relationships
(baker et al 2006 ). it is important to note that these results contain no carbon cycle mechanisms. the inversion methodology simply distributes net carbon exchange in space and time to obtain consistency with the atmospheric co2 observations and the atmospheric transport algorithms. regional aggregated temperature and precipitation time series for the time period 1980-2006 (kalnay et al 1996 were directly related to the net carbon fluxes in the two regions, and revealed distinct seasonal relationships. fall (son) northern eurasia carbon exchange anomalies (the sign convention is that a positive flux anomaly is out of the land surface) were positively correlated with warm
From what does the Q-methodology results?
the q-methodology results from the imagery study provide a clear insight into the use of fearful, emotive, or dramatic imagery and its impact on people's engagement with climate change, specifically their personal senses of issue salience and self-efficacy
The Q-method output was in which form?
the q-method output was in the form of sets of factors (e.g., mckeown thomas, 1988) that represented the most significant emerging points of view held by participants in relation to the pictures
By what was the interpretation of the Q-sort factors, or viewpoints aided?
the interpretation of the q-sort factors, or viewpoints, was aided by reasoning provided by participants for their image rankings
the q-methodology results from the imagery study provide a clear insight into the use of fearful, emotive, or dramatic imagery and its impact on people's engagement with climate change, specifically their personal senses of issue salience and self-efficacy. the q-method output was in the form of sets of factors (e.g., mckeown thomas, 1988) that represented the most significant emerging points of view held by participants in relation to the pictures. the interpretation of the q-sort factors, or viewpoints, was aided by reasoning provided by participants for their image rankings. in addition, the focus groups explored participants' reasoning behind their q-sorts. the results were consistent across the whole sample, with no marked differences between groups or even clusters of individuals representing certain viewpoints. most strikingly, in the salience q-sorts, the only two significant viewpoints that appeared in the data indicated that images concerning major impacts of climate change, often involving dramatic visions or human or
what is sensitivity analysis used for?
a sensitivity analysis, applied by fixing the minimum daily income at different levels, is used to examine the proportion of households vulnerable to climate extremes when the minimum daily income is 1, 1.5, 2, and 0.3 usd per day
what does this study show?
this study shows that farmers' vulnerability is highly sensitive to their minimum per day income requirement (poverty line) and the agro-ecological setting
what are some of the Public-level risk mitigation strategies?
public-level risk mitigation strategies might include water harvesting, resource conservation and management, irrigation, voluntary resettlement programs, provision of household and agro-ecological extension packages, inception of productive safety net programs, provision of weather-indexed drought insurance, and the development of well coordinated drought early warning systems
based on household-level survey data from the nile basin of ethiopia, we herein use the vulnerability as expected poverty approach to analyze the probability of farmers falling below a given consumption (income) level due to climatic shocks (droughts, floods and hailstorms). the logarithm of income is assumed to substitute for the logarithm of consumption, as most farmers in ethiopia consume most of their farm incomes. a sensitivity analysis, applied by fixing the minimum daily income at different levels, is used to examine the proportion of households vulnerable to climate extremes when the minimum daily income is 1, 1.5, 2, and 0.3 usd per day. when the minimum income is 2 usd per day, 99 percent of the surveyed farmers fall below the minimum income level. in contrast, when the minimum income is 0.3 uds per day, only 12.4 percent of the surveyed farmers fall below the vulnerability line. moreover, farmers living in different agro-ecological settings have different levels of vulnerability under the four scenarios. this study shows that farmers' vulnerability is highly sensitive to their minimum per day income requirement (poverty line) and the agro-ecological setting. when the minimum requirement is higher, most people will be vulnerable poverty due to climate extremes, whereas this vulnerability is lower when the minimum requirement is lower. furthermore, farmers living in kola zones were relatively more vulnerable to extreme climate events than farmers living in the other agro-ecological zones. notably, these preliminary results indicate that increasing farmers' incomes, with special emphasis on farmers in kola agro-ecologies, and enabling them to meet the daily minimum requirement will reduce their vulnerability to climate extremes. thus, policy interventions should focus on strengthening both householdand public-level climate risk management, through mitigation and coping practices aimed at reducing the damages from climate change. the risk-mitigation strategies that should be addressed at the household level should include those that encourage crop and livestock diversification, the use of drought-tolerant crop varieties and livestock species, the mixing of crop and livestock production, and membership in rotating credit groups. policies that support coping strategies at the household level should encourage income generation and asset holding, both of which will enable consumption smoothening during and immediately after harsh climatic events. public-level risk mitigation strategies might include water harvesting, resource conservation and management, irrigation, voluntary resettlement programs, provision of household and agro-ecological extension packages, inception of productive safety net programs, provision of weather-indexed drought insurance, and the development of well coordinated drought early warning systems. some helpful publiclevel coping strategies might be those focusing on the efficient administration of foreign emergency relief aid and effective food-for-work programs.
Have the youngs of south and west the same probability to report  victimization based on sexual orientation?
the beta-weights for the ''south'' and ''west'' variables were initially significant: youth in southern states were more likely and those in western states were less likely to report victimization based on sexual orientation than youth in northeastern states
Have the youngs who live in urban areas and suburban areas the same probability to report  victimization based on sexual orientation?
the set of locale variables was also significantly related to victimization based on sexual orientation--youth in urban areas were significantly less likely and youth in suburban areas marginally less likely to experience this type of victimization than youth in rural areas
Is the porcent of college-educated adults relationated with the victimization based in sexual orientation?
percentage of college-educated adults was negatively related and district-level poverty was positively related to victimization based on sexual orientation
the set of dummy-coded regional variables accounted for a small but significant amount of variance in victimization. the beta-weights for the ''south'' and ''west'' variables were initially significant: youth in southern states were more likely and those in western states were less likely to report victimization based on sexual orientation than youth in northeastern states. however, these regional variables were no longer significant when the community-level variables were later introduced into the equation. the set of locale variables was also significantly related to victimization based on sexual orientation--youth in urban areas were significantly less likely and youth in suburban areas marginally less likely to experience this type of victimization than youth in rural areas. the set of community-level variables also accounted for a significant amount of variance in victimization based on sexual orientation, and the beta weights for both variables were significant. percentage of college-educated adults was negatively related and district-level poverty was positively related to victimization based on sexual orientation. in the final step of the equation, the contribution of the school
What is consistent with the widely--reported 'value--action' gap?
the disparity between public awareness about climate change on the one hand, and the limited behavioral response on the other
What the value--action gap points to?
points to the complex interactions of psychological, social and environmental factors in the production of behavior (e.g., stern, 2000
the disparity between public awareness about climate change on the one hand, and the limited behavioral response on the other is consistent with the widely--reported 'value--action' gap (e.g. blake, 1999). in other words, people often do not act in accordance with what they know or care about. the value--action gap points to the complex interactions of psychological, social and environmental factors in the production of behavior (e.g., stern, 2000). indeed, behavior is not always preceded by conscious deliberation at all, notably in the case of habits (van vliet et al 2005). this is particularly true in the case of travel behaviors (e.g., verplanken et al 1998). furthermore, climate change in particular, as a complex, uncertain, global, and long--term issue, is particularly difficult to understand and relate to at the individual level. various barriers exist to increasing public knowledge, interest, concern, and -- above all -- action in relation to climate change. these barriers occur at two interrelated levels -- individual and social -- and include lack of knowledge, skepticism and distrust of information, feeling disempowered, competing priorities and values, perceived inaction by others, social norms (to consume) and physical/infrastructural impediments (lorenzoni et al 2007). clearly, then, there are structural constraints and disincentives to leading low--carbon lifestyles which militate against individuals acting in accordance with their awareness of climate change.
How many restaurants in the United States?
according to fact sheets on the website of the national restaurant association, there are currently 925,000 restaurants in the united states
Is the American diet effected from eating out?
clearly, the increase in eating away from home is hurting the american diet
Are processed foods more or less expensive than healthy foods?
processed foods are less expensive to produce and less perishable than more healthful fresh foods
americans have responded by eating at home less frequently and eating out more. according to fact sheets on the website of the national restaurant association, there are currently 925,000 restaurants in the united states. average daily restaurant sales in 2006 were $1.4 billion.22 research studies that have examined the health impact of eating out instead of eating at home have consistently found that when adults and children eat restaurant foods, they consume more calories, more fat, more fried foods, more soft drinks, fewer fruits and vegetables, and less fiber.23 clearly, the increase in eating away from home is hurting the american diet. in addition to the omnipresence of unhealthful foods in our current environment, these foods are also less expensive than healthful choices. one factor that contributes to the cost disparity is that processed foods are less expensive to produce and less perishable than more healthful fresh foods such as produce, dairy products, and lean meats. there are powerful economic forces that promote the consumption of unhealthful foods in our current environment.24
Where and when was this study conducted?
norwich, united kingdom, between 2000 and 2004
What two dimensions of visual representations are taken in this study?
a) "external" images of climate change that circulate in the public domain and (b) individuals' mental imagery of climate change
What where the three diverse groups used in the study?
young mothers from a deprived area, young professionals between the ages of 26 and 35, and high school students
this study was carried out in norwich, united kingdom, between 2000 and 2004. it investigated the relationship between visual representations of climate change and people's perceptions of the issue, paying particular attention to their senses of climate change being a personally important issue (its salience) and their senses of being able to do something about it (efficacy). in this research, visual representations are taken to include two dimensions: (a) "external" images of climate change that circulate in the public domain and (b) individuals' mental imagery of climate change, in other words their imaginations of climate change (often linked to the visual representations to which they are exposed). the study involved the same participants n 30) throughout three stages of research. the study began with semistructured interviews, which informed a q-methodology study, and concluded with three focus groups. the sample comprised 10 people from three diverse groups: young mothers from a deprived area, young professionals between the ages of 26 and 35, and high school students. the sample was not intended to be representative of the wider population because of the small-scale nature of the study. the intention was to avoid selecting a wholly middle-class sample and to present a range of sociodemographic backgrounds, lifestyle choices, social groupings, ages, life stages, and outlooks on the future (e.g., mason, 1996).
What happened during the big transitions of the ice ages?
the whole earth did not warm and cool together during the big transitions of the ice ages
What was the difference between the north and south?
the south warmed, in particular, while the north remained cold
When did the big transitions take place?
the big transitions took place when a resurgent precessional cycle produced inputs of meltwater to the north atlantic that lasted for thousands of years
the whole earth did not warm and cool together during the big transitions of the ice ages. the south warmed, in particular, while the north remained cold. the north also became very cold toward the ends of the glacial stages long after the south had reached its glacial minimum. the big transitions took place when a resurgent precessional cycle produced inputs of meltwater to the north atlantic that lasted for thousands of years. the meltwater inputs suppressed the amoc, flattened the temperature contrast between the hemispheres, and produced a redistribution of heat from north to south that warmed antarctica and the southern ocean. the same factors caused the level of co2 in the atmosphere to rise along with the temperatures in antarctica. atmospheric co2 was important during the ice ages because it varied with such a long time scale. the long time scale allowed the oceanic co2 system and northern ice sheets to interact in ways that gave rise to large temperature changes in the earth ' s polar regions. the long time scale also allowed the variability in northern ice volume to enhance the variability in atmospheric co2, and vice versa. without the long time scale for co2, the overall level of climate variability during the ice ages would have been much smaller. acknowledgments. the work of nick shackleton (1937 - 2006) foreshadows much of what is presented here. his insight was to see that the northern and southern hemispheres and atmospheric co2 contributed to the distinctive 100,000 year variability in marine d18o records in different ways shackleton 2000]. although largely unappreciated, subsequent ice core records and sea level reconstructions have supported his view. for all the dedication and painstaking attention to detail that led him to find and put forward this perspective, the authors would like to dedicate this paper to nick shackleton. the authors would like to acknowledge dick wetherald and eric galbraith for their internal reviews of the original manuscript. frank lamy, lorraine lisiecki, valerie masson - delmotte, george denton, and jeff severinghaus also made valuable suggestions. the authors would also like to thank peter huybers for his formal reviews and for his input regarding the obliquity cycle.
How were Dansgaard-Oeschger events categorized
by changes from cold (stadial) towards warmer and wetter (interstadial) conditions
What preceded the long lasting DO events
massive ice surges from the northern hemisphere ice sheets
How are Heinrich events documented
as thick layers of ice-rafted debris in marine sediments in the north atlantic6,7
the climate over much of the last glacial period was extremely variable on a millennial timescale. the north atlantic climate was punctuated by warm phases recorded in proxies over most of the northern hemisphere1. these so-called dansgaard-oeschger (do) events2were characterized by changes from cold (stadial) towards warmer and wetter (interstadial) conditions, with shifts of up to 16 8 c observed within a few decades in greenland3-5, followed by a more gradual cooling over a few hundred to thousand years. the long-lasting do events were preceded by massive ice surges from the northern hemisphere ice sheets. these so-called heinrich events are documented as thick layers of ice-rafted debris in marine sediments in the north atlantic6,7. they coincide with cold conditions in the north atlantic region, warm episodes in antarctica8
What were used to simulate the past and future evolution of Grosser Aletschgletscher?
3-d ice-flow and mass-balance model
What was the period of simulation to study the evolution of the entire glacier cluster around Aletschgletscher and two nearby glaciers?
1999 to 2100
What happened to Grosser Aletschgletscher by the end of the 21st century
there was a significant decrease in glacier ice volume and length
the past and future evolution of grosser aletschgletscher was simulated using a combined 3-d ice-flow and mass-balance model. basal sliding was taken into account, resulting in an improved calculation of the velocity field. the evolution of the entire glacier cluster around aletschgletscher and two nearby glaciers, was simulated from 1999 to 2100 using different climate scenarios based on rcms of the ensembles project. in addition, an investigation was carried out into glacier response to an air-temperature increase referring to the political 'two-degree target', and steady climatic forcings of several selected periods in the past, extended over 100 years. the sensitivity of glacier retreat to the presence and possible future expansion of supraglacial debris was tested, based on a new model for spatio-temporal evolution of the debris cover. for grosser aletschgletscher, there was a significant decrease in glacier ice volume and length by the end of the 21st century for most of the scenarios. according to the median
In West Africa ,where from a large  proportion of household income is derived?
west africa, a large proportion of household income is derived from cash crops and the diversification of income into livestock
In the opinion of the authors how important is  the value of livestock to households in Burkina Faso ?
the authors go on to describe the value of livestock to households in burkina faso due to their " recurrent production " of goods such as milk, wool and manure, their functions such as transport and traction and their important representation of a capital asset that may enable a household to meet unexpected expenditures
Describe the numerous metrics by which wealth in Burkina Faso may be measured ?
although wealth in burkina faso may be measured using numerous other metrics such as land or property ownership and monetary savings, the availability of data on livestock assets and the relevance of these to rural livelihoods makes them the focus of the asset basis for this research. unlike financial holdings, property ownership and possession of consumer goods, livestock assets are well covered in the emiub dataset
in their investigation into the relationship between migration and rural income diversification in burkina faso, wouterse and taylor (2008) suggest that, in the context of west africa, a large proportion of household income is derived from cash crops and the diversification of income into livestock. while they describe cash crops as being both labour intensive and risky, wouterse and taylor suggest that, although entailing risk and initial capital outlay, livestock production tends to be contrastingly labour-extensive with high output per worker day. the authors go on to describe the value of livestock to households in burkina faso due to their " recurrent production " of goods such as milk, wool and manure, their functions such as transport and traction and their important representation of a capital asset that may enable a household to meet unexpected expenditures (udo and cornelissen, 1998). although wealth in burkina faso may be measured using numerous other metrics such as land or property ownership and monetary savings, the availability of data on livestock assets and the relevance of these to rural livelihoods makes them the focus of the asset basis for this research. unlike financial holdings, property ownership and possession of consumer goods, livestock assets are well covered in the emiub dataset.
What is listed in Table 1?
we begin our examination of the analysis by examining the time-mean volume transports at several key passages and sections where observation estimates are available, listed in table 1
What is examined at the beginning of the analyse?
we begin our examination of the analysis by examining the time-mean volume transports at several key passages and sections where observation estimates are available, listed in table 1
Where does the observed volume transport into the Gulf Stream system enters through?
much of the observed volume transport into the gulf stream system enters through the florida straits where an extensive cable monitoring program has been in place for decades (baringer and larsen 2001
we begin our examination of the analysis by examining the time-mean volume transports at several key passages and sections where observation estimates are available, listed in table 1. the soda1.4.2 transports through the gulf stream and kuroshio portions of the northern subtropical gyres are similar to observations. much of the observed volume transport into the gulf stream system enters through the florida straits where an extensive cable monitoring program has been in place for decades (baringer and larsen 2001). the soda1.4.2 volume transport through the florida straits is 4 sv (1 sv  106m3s 1) too low and is made up for by water that is passing to the east of the bahamas before joining the gulf stream so that the gulf stream transport off north carolina is similar to the
In what region is climate change most pronounced?
although anthropogenic climate change is a global issue, climate change is most pronounced in the arctic
How many times greater than the global average is the warming trend in the Arctic?
the current warming trend in the arctic is about 2 times that of the global average (macbean 2004; serreze and francis 2006) and is projected to continue through this century (kattsov and kallen 2004; holland and bitz 2003
what 3 types of life will be effected by the new state of the Arctic climate system?
they find that the current trajectory of the arctic climate system suggests this new state will be characterized by substantially less permanent ice and snow, which will have farreaching effects on animal, plant, and human life
although anthropogenic climate change is a global issue, climate change is most pronounced in the arctic. the current warming trend in the arctic is about 2 times that of the global average (macbean 2004; serreze and francis 2006) and is projected to continue through this century (kattsov and kallen 2004; holland and bitz 2003). arctic climate change has therefore come to the forefront of climate science during the last decade (see, e.g., arctic climate impact assessment 2005). despite much attention, there is still no consensus on specific reasons why climate change is accelerated in the arctic, although several hypotheses have been suggested (see, e.g., arctic climate impact assessment 2005). in an interdisciplinary study, overpeck et al. (2005) concluded that the arctic system is "heading toward a new super-interglacial state." they find that the current trajectory of the arctic climate system suggests this new state will be characterized by substantially less permanent ice and snow, which will have farreaching effects on animal, plant, and human life. they also conclude that there are no obvious or currently
What is indicated by a close coupling between pCO2 and ice volume through the middle Miocene?
this coupling indicates the presence of a dynamic ice sheet(s) during the mco and mmct that, within our sampling resolution o 300 kyr), exhibited little or no apparent hysteresis and a linear relationship with climate forcing by co2
If ice was completely restricted to Antarctica during the middle Miocene, what does the massive Antarctic ice sheet have the potential to be?
if ice was completely restricted to antarctica during the middle miocene, as some previous studies imply, it would appear that under relatively modest pco2 levels close to those existing today, the massive antarctic ice sheet has the potential to be surprisingly dynamic
What must future work determine about the waxing and waning Miocene ice sheets?
with anthropogenic emissions of co2 continuing to rise (and potentially reaching the values we see for the middle miocene before the middle of this decade), future work must determine whether these waxing and waning miocene ice sheets were based solely on antarctica or if some ice growth occurred in the northern hemisphere
o we have shown that there is a close coupling between pco2 and icevolume (hence climate) through the middle miocene. the nature of this coupling indicates the presence of a dynamic ice sheet(s) during the mco and mmct that, within our sampling resolution o 300 kyr), exhibited little or no apparent hysteresis and a linear relationship with climate forcing by co2. with anthropogenic emissions of co2 continuing to rise (and potentially reaching the values we see for the middle miocene before the middle of this decade), future work must determine whether these waxing and waning miocene ice sheets were based solely on antarctica or if some ice growth occurred in the northern hemisphere. if ice was completely restricted to antarctica during the middle miocene, as some previous studies imply, it would appear that under relatively modest pco2 levels close to those existing today, the massive antarctic ice sheet has the potential to be surprisingly dynamic. acknowledgements this work was supported by nerc grants (ne/d00876x/2, ne/ i006176/1 and ne/d008654/1) to g.l.f. and c.h.l. and a nerc studentship to j.w.b.r. we thank the (i)odp for supplying samples that were essential to this study. kat allen and two anonymous reviewers are thanked for their comments that greatly improved this manuscript. chris coath and huw boulton are acknowledged for their assistance in the laboratory and paul wilson, martin palmer, damon teagle and eelco rohling are thanked for their comments on an earlier draft of this manuscript. are olsen is also acknowledged for sharing data on the preindustrial
What are most small farmers still unaware of? Climate change
the fact that the majority of smallholder farmers are still ignorant about climate change means that climate change awareness
How are these farmers already working? already operate in marginal areas
these farmers already operate in the marginal
How can they serve? They can serve as useful entry points for intervention.
these can serve as useful entry points for intervention
the fact that the majority of smallholder farmers are still ignorant about climate change means that climate change awareness campaigns are needed to sensitize them about the challenge and its implications in order to facilitate the promotion and adoption of adaptation strategies. these farmers already operate in the marginal areas and most had already adopted some coping strategies to the harsh climatic conditions that have prevailed over the years. these can serve as useful entry points for intervention. therefore, the old and new intervention strategies need to be intensified through participatory approaches, such as farmer field days and trips. agricultural extension officers also need to explain and train farmers on the importance of seasonal climate forecast information and how they can use it to make efficient use of their limited resources through informed investment decisions.
who issued A joint statement ?
a joint statement issued by the australian academy of sciences, royal flemish academy of belgium for sciences and the arts, brazilian academy of sciences, royal society of canada, caribbean academy of sciences, chinese academy of sciences, french academy of sciences, german academy of natural scientists leopoldina, indian national science academy, indonesian academy of sciences, royal irish academy, accademia nazionale dei lincei (italy), academy of sciences malaysia, academy council of the royal society of new zealand, royal swedish academy of sciences, and royal society (uk
what was the issued a statement  In May 2000, at the InterAcademy Panel (IAP) meeting in Tokyo?
in may 2000, at the interacademy panel (iap) meeting in tokyo, 63 academies of science from all parts of the world issued a statement on sustainability in which they noted that "global trends in climate change ... are growing concerns" and pledged themselves to work for sustainability - meeting current human needs while preserving the environment and natural resources needed by future generations
how many academies of science participate at the InterAcademy Panel (IAP) meeting in Tokyo In May 2000
in may 2000, at the interacademy panel (iap) meeting in tokyo, 63 academies of science from all parts of the world
a joint statement issued by the australian academy of sciences, royal flemish academy of belgium for sciences and the arts, brazilian academy of sciences, royal society of canada, caribbean academy of sciences, chinese academy of sciences, french academy of sciences, german academy of natural scientists leopoldina, indian national science academy, indonesian academy of sciences, royal irish academy, accademia nazionale dei lincei (italy), academy of sciences malaysia, academy council of the royal society of new zealand, royal swedish academy of sciences, and royal society (uk). the work of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) represents the consensus of the international scientific community on climate change science. we recognise ipcc as the world's most reliable source of information on climate change and its causes, and we endorse its method of achieving this consensus. despite increasing consensus on the science underpinning predictions of global climate change, doubts have been expressed recently about the need to mitigate the risks posed by global climate change. we do not consider such doubts justified. there will always be some uncertainty surrounding the prediction of changes in such a complex system as the world's climate. nevertheless, we support the ipcc's conclusion that it is at least 90% certain that temperatures will continue to rise, with average global surface temperature projected to increase by between 1.4 and 5.8 oc above 1990 levels by 2100 1. this increase will be accompanied by rising sea levels, more intense precipitation events in some countries, increased risk of drought in others, and adverse effects on agriculture, health and water resources. in may 2000, at the interacademy panel (iap) meeting in tokyo, 63 academies of science from all parts of the world issued a statement on sustainability in which they noted that "global trends in climate change ... are growing concerns" and pledged themselves to work for sustainability - meeting current human needs while preserving the environment and natural resources needed by future generations 2. it is now evident that human activities are already contributing adversely to global climate change. business as usual is no longer a viable option. we urge everyone individuals, businesses and governments to take prompt action to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases. one hundred and eighty-one governments are parties to the 1992 un framework convention on climate change, demonstrating a global commitment to ' stabilising atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases at safe levels '. eighty-four countries have signed the subsequent 1997 kyoto protocol, committing developed countries to reducing their annual aggregate emissions by 5.2% from 1990 levels by 2008-2012. the ratification of this protocol represents a small but essential first step towards stabilising atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. it will help create a base on which to build an equitable agreement between all countries in the developed and developing worlds for the more substantial reductions that will be necessary by the middle of the century. there is much that can be done now to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases without excessive cost. we believe that there is also a need for a major co-ordinated research effort focusing on the science and technology that underpin mitigation and adaptation strategies related to climate change. this effort should be funded principally by the developed countries and should involve scientists from throughout the world. the balance of the scientific evidence demands effective steps now to avert damaging changes to the earth's climate.
How many case studies were considered for this database?
the selection of the 15 in-depth case studies was guided by consideration
What did the selection criteria incorporate?
the selection criteria incorporated an analysis of challenges and opportunities associated with preparation of adaptation responses (based on an assessment of previous research and input from grabs project partners
How were these case studies included in the database?
it was established that collectively, the case studies included in database would address each of these key challenges and opportunities to the development of green and blue adaptation responses, which are described below
the case studies included within this database have been selected from all over the world, although a focus on the european context was maintained due to this being the location of the grabs project partners. the selection of the 15 in-depth case studies was guided by consideration of a number of different aspects of adaptation responses, which were developed into a series of selection criteria that the case studies needed to meet in order to be included. the selection of case studies according to these criteria is presented in table 4. the selection criteria incorporated an analysis of challenges and opportunities associated with preparation of adaptation responses (based on an assessment of previous research and input from grabs project partners). it was established that collectively, the case studies included in database would address each of these key challenges and opportunities to the development of green and blue adaptation responses, which are described below.
What is used to produce a metric of the model skill?
observations are then used to produce a metric of the model skill in simulating selected aspects of past climate
What is driven by estimates of past conditions?
ensembles of simulations of past and current climate, driven by estimates of past radiative forcing/boundary conditions
What produces the most realistic future climate projections?
the more realistic regions of parameter space are accepted or up-weighted, based on heuristic or more formal criteria, as those which are likely to produce the most realistic future climate projections
ensembles of simulations of past and current climate, driven by estimates of past radiative forcing/boundary conditions, may be generated at different internal input parameter values, precise values of which are typically not known (fig. 1). observations are then used to produce a metric of the model skill in simulating selected aspects of past climate. the metric compares the model output with observed climate fields and may involve many different climate variables, trends and fields that are related to different physical processes (see supplementary information). the more realistic regions of parameter space are accepted or up-weighted, based on heuristic or more formal criteria, as those which are likely to produce the most realistic future climate projections. less realistic regions are rejected or down-weighted. the model is calibrated by determining suitable
Where are the three major localized tropic heat sources identified?
there are three major localized tropical heat sources: (1) over the maritime continent of the western pacific; (2) migrating between the amazon and the intra-americas sea; and (3) over tropical africa
Which region does the IAS-Amazon heat source affects?
the seasonally varying ias-amazon heat source affects climate from south to north america and tropical storms and hurricanes on both sides of central america
What does the NCAR/NCEP reanalysis field show?
the ncar/ncep reanalysis field also shows that el nino weakens the atlantic hadley circulation, consistent with an earlier result of klein et al. (1999) that is inferred from correlation maps of satellite observations, and with the direct circulation analyses of mestas-nunez and enfield (2001) and wang (2002a
there are three major localized tropical heat sources: (1) over the maritime continent of the western pacific; (2) migrating between the amazon and the intra-americas sea; and (3) over tropical africa. it is widely known that zonal excursion of the western pacific heat source is associated with the pacific enso phenomenon that affects climate variations on a global scale. the seasonally varying ias-amazon heat source affects climate from south to north america and tropical storms and hurricanes on both sides of central america. the heat source moves seasonally, generally, being most north and west over the whwp in the boreal summer, and south and east over northern south america in the boreal winter. associated with the seasonal movements of the heat sources are the seasonal variations of the equatorial zonal walker circulation, the tropical meridional hadley circulation, and the extratropical meridional ferrel circulation. enso shifts the western pacific heat source and atmospheric convective activity and then affects global atmospheric circulation. during el nino, the equatorial pacific walker circulation is observed to be weakened. the anomalous meridional hadley circulation in the eastern pacific shows the air rising in the tropics, flowing poleward in the upper troposphere, sinking in the subtropics, and returning to the tropics in the lower troposphere. the anomalous hadley circulation in the western pacific is opposite to that in the eastern pacific, indicating a weakening of the western pacific hadley circulation during el nino. the ncar/ncep reanalysis field also shows that el nino weakens the atlantic hadley circulation, consistent with an earlier result of klein et al. (1999) that is inferred from correlation maps of satellite observations, and with the direct circulation analyses of mestas-nunez and enfield (2001) and wang (2002a). wang (2002b, c) and wang and enfield (2003) suggest that following el nino winters in which the atlantic hadley circulation is strongly weakened, the decreased subsidence over the subtropical north atlantic results in the late winter weakening of the ne trades off africa, the associated spring tna warming (enfield and the hadley circulation
Who suggested broadening the base of the references?
both reviewers suggested broadening the base of the references
Who suggested that some of the figures be revised to eliminate some unnecessary side materials?
the second reviewer suggested that some of the figures be revised to eliminate some unnecessary side materials
Who reacted generally positive to the paper and recommended publication with minor revisions?
both reviewers reacted generally positive to the paper and recommended publication with minor revisions
i appreciate the thorough reviews by the two reviewers, who obviously spent significant time reading the paper and providing thoughtful and useful comments. i am also pleased that both reviewers reacted generally positive to the paper and recommended publication with minor revisions. i have carefully considered all of the comments and suggested edits and accepted almost all of them. i have checked to make sure all abbreviations and acronyms are defined. both reviewers suggested broadening the base of the references and i have done this, adding all of the additional suggested references in the revised version. c477 the second reviewer suggested that some of the figures be revised to eliminate some unnecessary side materials and slide-type titles, increasing font size, etc. i have considered each figure and revised those which were practical to do with a reasonable effort. i thank the reviewers for their excellent comments. rick anthes
What does reference location refer to?
reference location refers to the location used to calculate the mean age fi elds archived at british atmospheric data centre
Does the inert tracer's concentration grow linearly or exponentially with time below a given lower boundary?
linearly increasing an inert tracer whose concentration grows linearly with time below a given lower boundary
Is the ULAQ age difference profile shape very similar or very different than than the profile shape observed in the TMS?
again, the ulaq age difference pro fi le shape is much different than observed in the tms
linearly increasing an inert tracer whose concentration grows linearly with time below a given lower boundary; stratospheric source direct 'age of air' tracer, where the value of the tracer fi eld in the stratosphere increases by d t every model d t; pulse tracer given a value of 1.0 during the fi rst month of model simulations and then set to 0.0 afterwards. <s314>2 reference location refers to the location used to calculate the mean age fi elds archived at british atmospheric data centre. for all plots shown the mean age fi elds were normalised so that mean age 0 at equator, 100 hpa. chapter 5: transport 157 and lmdzrepro have a signi fi cantly different shape than observed in the tls. in the tms the agreement between the models and the observations is improved, with only cam3.5, cnrm-acm, and ulaq having age gradients smaller than the observational uncertainty over most of the region. again, the ulaq age difference pro fi le shape is much different than observed in the tms. the umucka models are closer to observations in the tms, but are still the only models with age gradients that are signi fi cantly larger than observed.
What is socio-ecological system?
the socio-ecological system (ses) has emerged as a conceptual entity that can give the the socio-ecological system (ses) has emerged as a conceptual entity that can give the social and ecological systems the same weight in their analysis (folke, 2006
What is central resilience thinking?
central to resilience thinking in socio-ecological systems is the adaptive cycle through which all systems go through four phases - 'exploitation, conservation, release and renewal
What is closely associated with the notion of Panarchy?
closely associated with this is the notion of panarchy that explains how adaptive cycles are simultaneously taking place within system components at different scales (ibid
the socio-ecological system (ses) has emerged as a conceptual entity that can give the the socio-ecological system (ses) has emerged as a conceptual entity that can give the social and ecological systems the same weight in their analysis (folke, 2006). these are '... linked systems of people and nature. the term emphasises that humans must be seen as a part of, not apart from, nature - that the delineation between social and ecological systems is artificial and arbitrary' (simon, 2009). mayunga (2007) acknowledges the interconnection of human and ecological systems by stating that both natural capital (air, soil, etc.) and social capital (trust, norms and networks) have a role in determining the resilience of a system. this is in contrast to folke (2006), who does not isolate human/social and natural/ecological factors, seeing them instead as a highly integrated, systemic 'whole'. central to resilience thinking in socio-ecological systems is the adaptive cycle through which all systems go through four phases - 'exploitation, conservation, release and renewal' (gunderson and holling 2001: 5). closely associated with this is the notion of panarchy that explains how adaptive cycles are simultaneously taking place within system components at different scales (ibid).
Explain the parameter uncertainty?
the optimal policy with parameter uncertainty is then contrasted with the optimal policy without parameter uncertainty (i.e., one sample with the parameters at their expected values). in this example, abatement considering parameter uncertainty fig. 5 solid line) is lower than abatement without parameter uncertainty fig. 5 dashed line). for example, optimal abatement without parameter uncertainty is roughly 38% in 2095
the optimal policy with parameter uncertainty is then contrasted with the optimal policy without parameter uncertainty (i.e., one sample with the parameters at their expected values). in this example, abatement considering parameter uncertainty fig. 5 solid line) is lower than abatement without parameter uncertainty fig. 5 dashed line). for example, optimal abatement without parameter uncertainty is roughly 38% in 2095. considering parameter uncertainty reduces this value to roughly 29%. the decrease of optimal abatement with increasing parameter uncertainty is in contrast to the change one would perhaps expect intuitively, if risk aversion were the dominant effect. a consumer is risk averse if a certain outcome is preferred over an uncertain outcome with the same expected value. the observed effect of risk aversion is represented in our model by the logarithmic utility function (eq. (1)), which is one of the many nonlinearities relating climate policy to the objective function. increased uncertainty would increase optimal abatement if (i) risk aversion were the dominant nonlinearity in the model, and (ii) increased abatement would decrease the variance of the per capita consumptions across the different states of the world. the fact that increased parameter uncertainty does not cause an increase in optimal abatements indicates that these two conditions are not met in our simple model. for a more detailed discussion of this aspect, see [27,28] the decrease of optimal abatement with increasing parameter uncertainty can be explained intuitively by the threshold properties and the benefit-cost reasoning in the model. as seen in the sensitivity analyses shown in figs. 2 and 4 optimal abatement is high for the expected parameter values but falls off for all but one tail of the distributions. specifically, low thermohaline circulation specific damages and high and low climate sensitivities result in lower abatement levels
What projects have been relevant ever since colonization, simply as a cost-efficient source of energy?
hydro-power projects have been relevant ever since colonization, simply as a cost-efficient source of energy
What adverse development effects of hydro-power projects led to their importance being decreased over time?
as hydro-power projects have often led to (heavily criticized) adverse development effects induced by resettlements, irregular flooding or inadequate technical maintenance capacity, their importance decreased over time
What became fashionable after the second oil shock in the later 1970s?
at the same time, small renewable energy projects became fashionable after the second oil shock in the late 1970s (mullerpelzer and michaelowa 2005
however, there are several specific project categories that have clearly been relevant for several decades: hydro-power projects have been relevant ever since colonization, simply as a cost-efficient source of energy. as hydro-power projects have often led to (heavily criticized) adverse development effects induced by resettlements, irregular flooding or inadequate technical maintenance capacity, their importance decreased over time. at the same time, small renewable energy projects became fashionable after the second oil shock in the late 1970s (mullerpelzer and michaelowa 2005). as hydro-power projects have typically been very large, the thematic focus on climate change policy from the 1990s onward has not necessarily led to higher expenditures for renewable energy as a whole. however, the variety of projects and their direct focus on greenhouse gas emission reduction has risen considerably.
How can soil chemistry be altered?
soil chemistry can become altered through reductions in litter quality and rate of litter decomposition
What are the consequences of lowered diversity and abundance of habitat types?
lowered diversity and abundance of habitat types, resulting from the attendant herbivory,can also result in loss of animal species diversity (mcshea et al. 1997
What do studies of moose-vegetation dynamics in other boreal forest systems indicate?
studies of moose-vegetation dynamics in other boreal forest systems indicate that browsing-induced reduction of canopy height and closure by as little as 12% to 50% results in higher light intensity, lower humidity, warmer and drier soils, and lower primary productivity of tree species
sinclair 1997). this switch in ecosystem state is akin to nonlinearities long known for forest insect pests and their host plants (holling 1992). studies of moose-vegetation dynamics in other boreal forest systems indicate that browsing-induced reduction of canopy height and closure by as little as 12% to 50% results in higher light intensity, lower humidity, warmer and drier soils, and lower primary productivity of tree species (bonan 1992, kielland and bryant 1998). over the long term, soil chemistry can become altered through reductions in litter quality and rate of litter decomposition,causing a buildup of soil carbon that feeds from the bottom up to exacerbate the reduction in ecosystem productivity (pastor et al. 1993). lowered diversity and abundance of habitat types, resulting from the attendant herbivory,can also result in loss of animal species diversity (mcshea et al. 1997). the only congruence between the mapping analysis and detailed examination of ecosystem structure and function is that the major species in the different trophic levels should continue to coexist under climate warming.unlike the mapping analysis, however, the more focused assessment of ecosystem function reveals that the nature and strength of trophic interactions are likely to be transformed,leading to dramatic changes in the relative abundance of species in different trophic levels.this,in turn,may alter vital ecosystem services, including productivity. such alterations would not be apparent in an analysis based on a mapping approach alone.
What type of engine does the 'WhisperGen' have?
however, it contains a generator powered by a stirling engine, which produces electricity from the same gas
When is CHP most attractive?
chp is most attractive when the price of grid electricity is high and fuel for the plant, e.g. gas, is low
large -scale combined heat and power (chp) plants are usually sized according to the base load heat demand of the buildings or area they are supplying. their overall efficiency and commercial success depend on the combination of heat transfer efficiency and electrical generation efficiency, and the demand cycles for electricity and heat. thus, chp is not necessarily more efficient than the alternative of stand-alone heat and grid-supplied electricity. chp is most attractive when the price of grid electricity is high and fuel for the plant, e.g. gas, is low. in a fairly revolutionary development the world's first commercially available domestic chp plant, the ' whispergen ' has been developed jointly by whisper tech in new zealand and powergen in the uk. it fits under the worktop in a kitchen, like a dishwasher, and provides hot water like a normal boiler. however, it contains a generator powered by a stirling engine, which produces electricity from the same gas supply. any surplus electricity will be fed back into the more free ebooks http://fast-file.blogspot.com
In this study, what climate model output was resampled with a nearest-neighbour technique?
in this study output of the knmi regional climate model racmo was resampled with a nearest-neighbour technique
What was found to lead to an underestimation of large quantiles of their distribution?
it was found that the correction for the bias in the mean precipitation by linear scaling of the daily precipitation amounts leads to an underestimation of large quantiles of their distribution
How was a marked improvement achieved in the problem of underestimated extreme river flows?
a marked improvement was achieved with a nonlinear transformation, adjusting the mean as well as the cv of daily precipitation
in this study output of the knmi regional climate model racmo was resampled with a nearest-neighbour technique to produce long-duration sequences of daily precipitation and temperature for the belgian and french subbasins of the river meuse. bias corrections were applied to synthetic 3000-year sequences of precipitation and temperature to reproduce statistical properties of observed data. with the bias-corrected resampled sequences the daily discharge in borgharen was simulated with the hbv rainfall-runoff model. it was found that the correction for the bias in the mean precipitation by linear scaling of the daily precipitation amounts leads to an underestimation of large quantiles of their distribution. as a result, the occurrence of extreme river flows is underestimated considerably. this problem was encountered with both model runs in this study (either driven by hadam3h or era40). a marked improvement was achieved with a nonlinear transformation, adjusting the mean as well as the cv of daily precipitation. for the era40-driven run even better results for extreme river flows were obtained by fitting the exponent in the nonlinear correction on the cv of the 10-day precipitation amounts. despite a slight overestimation of the daily variability and a negative bias in the autocorrelation coefficients of the daily precipitation amounts, the distribution of the 10-day precipitation maxima is reproduced adequately. in order to reproduce the distribution of extreme discharges for a relatively large river basin like that of the meuse, it is generally more appropriate to correct for biases in statistical
Who do companies face investigation and prosecution from for failing to have contingency plans?
under uk legislation employers may face investigation and prosecution by the hse if they fail to devise suitable contingency plans for emergencies
Extreme weather were involved in blackouts in the summer of what year?
extreme weather events were involved in most of the summer 2003 blackouts
When are stress claims appropriate?
stress claims could be brought, particularly if staff suspect a terrorist attack
shift from high rise to low rise with a preference for lower level offices. <s121>* less visible external signage. <s121>* careful lobby design. <s121>* parking strategies. <s121>* designs for evacuation including location and design of stairwells. <s121>* security in terminology in leases and insurance policies. extreme climate events and blackouts over the summer of 2003 reinforced the need for businesses and building owners to make preparations for the repetition of such events. under uk legislation employers may face investigation and prosecution by the hse if they fail to devise suitable contingency plans for emergencies. it is envisaged that claims could arise from workplace accidents caused by the sudden loss of lights, power to lifts or failure of air conditioning systems in hot weather. panic-induced trampling could occur, particularly if personnel are not promptly informed about the cause of the failure. stress claims could be brought, particularly if staff suspect a terrorist attack. while many employers have strategies for incidents of fire or terrorist attack it is now considered necessary, by legal experts in the field, that they should also have an appropriate response to deal with total sudden power loss, under the 1999 health and safety regulations, 43 which require employers to undertake a ' suitable and sufficient assessment ' of workplace risks. extreme weather events were involved in most of the summer 2003 blackouts and so this issue should be factored into business planning for blackouts in the future. there are certainly identifiable dangers associated with swift and protracted power failure at work. further widespread electricity failures are foreseeable. secondary lighting sources, generators and evacuation procedures were cited as primary options, but what it is not possible to do is to provide air conditioning over a long period for a high-energy building with back-up generators alone. accidents during darkness, complete or partial, could lead to prosecution. health and safety prosecutions are worrying because liability is absolute save for the defence of reasonable practicability and employers might argue that they had done everything that was reasonably practicable if they followed the hse advice. there is a possibility that if an employer follows the hse guidance to the letter but there is still a bad accident the employer might seek redress from those liabilities from the hse. more free ebooks http://fast-file.blogspot.com
What may Mediterranean region forestry mainly be affected by?
forestry in the mediterranean region may be mainly affected by increases in droughts and forest fires
In northern Europe, what is expected to compensate for the increased evapotranspiration?
in northern europe, the increased precipitation is expected to be large enough to compensate the increased evapotranspiration
What may negatively affect forest work and timber logging and decrease recreational possibilities?
on the other hand, however, increased precipitation, cloudiness and rain days and the reduced duration of snow cover and soil frost may negatively affect forest work and timber logging determining lower profitability of forest production and a decrease in recreational possibilities
agriculture and forestry will be particular sensitive to changes in mean climate and climate variability in the northern and southern regions of europe. agriculture may be positively affected by climate change in the northern areas through the of new crop species and varieties, higher crop production and expansion of suitable areas for crop cultivation. the disadvantages may be determined by an increase in need for plant protection, risk of nutrient leaching and accelerated breakdown of soil organic matter. in southern areas the benefits of the projected climate change will be limited, while the disadvantages will be predominant. the increased water use efficiency caused by increasing co2 will compensate for some of the negative effects of increasing water limitations and extreme weather events, but the lower harvestable yields, higher yield variability and a reduction in suitable areas of traditional crops are expected for these areas. forestry in the mediterranean region may be mainly affected by increases in droughts and forest fires. in northern europe, the increased precipitation is expected to be large enough to compensate the increased evapotranspiration. on the other hand, however, increased precipitation, cloudiness and rain days and the reduced duration of snow cover and soil frost may negatively affect forest work and timber logging determining lower profitability of forest production and a decrease in recreational possibilities. adaptation management strategies should be introduced, as effective tools, to reduce the negative impacts of climate change on agriculture and forestry sectors. 4
What did the political scientists Deborah Lynn Guber and Christopher J. Bosso say that captured the situation?
political scientists deborah lynn guber and christopher j. bosso capture the situation when stating, "the year 2007--with its unlikely fusion of science, politics and old-fashioned hollywood glamour--had seemed to mark a long-awaited tipping point for climate change
What did the late Judith Layzer note?
judith layzer, noted, "almost immediately after obama's election ... the prospects for climate change legislation began to deteriorate
What happened two short years later?
and, yet, two short years later, the pendulum had swung back with stunning speed and brutal force
political scientists deborah lynn guber and christopher j. bosso capture the situation when stating, "the year 2007--with its unlikely fusion of science, politics and old-fashioned hollywood glamour--had seemed to mark a long-awaited tipping point for climate change," a window of opportunity reinforced by growing corporate acceptance of the necessity of limiting greenhouse gas emissions and a multitude of climate actions plans passed at the regional, state, and local levels.4 they continue, "thus it was, for a fleeting moment that american environmentalism stood at a crossroads, burning with the momentum needed to enact change in u.s. energy and climate policies. and, yet, two short years later, the pendulum had swung back with stunning speed and brutal force."5 similarly, after also noting the optimism prompted by obama's election, another political scientist, the late judith layzer, noted, "almost immediately after obama's election ... the prospects for climate change legislation began to deteriorate."6
What is one of the aspects of the simulated precipitation change?
another expected aspect of simulated precipitation change is a latitudinal redistribution of precipitation including increasing precipitation at high latitudes and decreasing precipitation at subtropical latitudes, and potentially changes in the distribution of precipitation within the tropics by shifting the position of the intertropical convergence zone
What kind of comparison is shown in the Figure 7?
comparisons between observed and modeled trends in land precipitation over two periods during the 20th century are shown in figure 7
How many observed trends were compared to reach the result?
a comparison of observed trends averaged over latitudinal bands with those simulated by 14 climate models forced by the combined effects of anthropogenic and natural external forcing, and by 4 climate models forced by natural forcing alone, shows that anthropogenic forcing has had a detectable influence on observed changes in average precipitation
another expected aspect of simulated precipitation change is a latitudinal redistribution of precipitation including increasing precipitation at high latitudes and decreasing precipitation at subtropical latitudes, and potentially changes in the distribution of precipitation within the tropics by shifting the position of the intertropical convergence zone. comparisons between observed and modeled trends in land precipitation over two periods during the 20th century are shown in figure 7. a comparison of observed trends averaged over latitudinal bands with those simulated by 14 climate models forced by the combined effects of anthropogenic and natural external forcing, and by 4 climate models forced by natural forcing alone, shows that anthropogenic forcing has had a detectable influence on observed changes in average precipitation.55
Among the number of environmental challenges facing societies, which is more urgent? Global climate change has become one of the most urgent in the last decade.
ofthemultitudeofenvironmentalchallengessocieties face, global climate change has become one of the most pressing during the past decade
What have physical scientists accomplished? Conducted substantial research on the global atmosphere and climate
physical scientists have conducted substantial research on the atmosphere and the global climate
What are social scientists doing? are making important contributions to the climate change literature
increasingly, social scientists are making important contributions to the literature on climate change by examining a variety of social variables and social conditions that contribute to global warming
continuestoescalate.9ofthemultitudeofenvironmentalchallengessocieties face, global climate change has become one of the most pressing during the past decade. physical scientists have conducted substantial research on the atmosphere and the global climate, widely agreeing that observed increases in average global temperatures are due to the emission of greenhouses gases generated by human societies. increasingly, social scientists are making important contributions to the literature on climate change by examining a variety of social variables and social conditions that contribute to global warming: demographic trends, political treaties and policies, operations of economic systems, technological development, fuel efficiency, global inequalities in emissions, deforestation, social structures, appropriation of global commons, and ecological debt.10
Which frequency the inspector has to inspect the pound and complementary units?
the operator should carry out a daily inspection
What type of data is inputted in the computer head office?
loading rates, efficiency parameters and associated graphs
What aspects have fundamental importance in monitoring programs?
an aspect of fundamental importance in a monitoring programme relates to the real use of the data surveyed
the operator should carry out a daily inspection throughout the pond and its complementary units. table 21.2 shows an example of an inspection checklist. the sampling and measurement scheduling can follow the model presented in table 21.3. certainly, depending on the size and importance of the pond, the number of parameters to be included, as well as the frequency of their determination, can be altered and adapted to local needs. small-sized ponds in remote and lower-income locations can naturally have a more simplified sampling scheduling, concentrated on the determination of the flow and parameters set forth by the environmental legislation. should effluents be reused in agriculture, agronomic (electric conductivity, ca, mg, na, boron and others) and sanitary (helminth eggs) parameters of interest should be investigated. owing to the daily variation of several constituents in stabilisation ponds, composite sampling is preferable. the portions that constitute the composite sample are collected either automatically (automatic samplers) or manually, at 1-3-hour intervals. should there be any difficulty to collect the composite samples, the collection of a single sample from the water column in the pond leads to results comparable with those of the composite sample. mara et al (1992) present details of the column sampler. an aspect of fundamental importance in a monitoring programme relates to the real use of the data surveyed. there is no sense in obtaining data if they are not checkedandinterpreted.pondperformancemonitoringgraphsshouldbeproduced, with participation of the operator. data input in computer spreadsheets in the head office, including loading rates, efficiency parameters and associated graphs, is the best form to use these data.
what is important?
it is important, however, not to overstate the lack of engagement of accountants at the time with sustainability issues, including climate change
what does the ICAEW published in 2004?
the institute of chartered accountants in england and wales (icaew) in 2004 published a detailed report entitled 'sustainability: the role of accountants' as part of its 'information for better markets campaign
On what is focused the Sustainability: the role of accountants?
the report nonetheless engaged directly with the problem in a number of ways, particularly in positioning accountants (and their skills) as being pivotal in its management and identifying climate change as one of a number of 'mega risks' that deserves attention (icaew 2004: 18). the report, for instance, concluded in a chapter devoted to the issue of tradeable permits
it is important, however, not to overstate the lack of engagement of accountants at the time with sustainability issues, including climate change. for example, the institute of chartered accountants in england and wales (icaew) in 2004 published a detailed report entitled 'sustainability: the role of accountants' as part of its 'information for better markets campaign.' whilst not focused specifically on climate change, the report nonetheless engaged directly with the problem in a number of ways, particularly in positioning accountants (and their skills) as being pivotal in its management and identifying climate change as one of a number of 'mega risks' that deserves attention (icaew 2004: 18). the report, for instance, concluded in a chapter devoted to the issue of tradeable permits:
How much did this project cost (USD)?
this large (us$ 464 million) project, co-financed by a number of donors, was designed over the course of several years in response to the ever-increasing demand for water in katmandu valley
What does the Katmandu Valley area suffer from?
due to catchment deforestation, this area suffers from rapid runoff in the short wet season and water shortages in the dry season
What does this project contain for the Katmandu Valley?
the project contains a diversion of water from the melamchi river into the katmandu valley, as well as social and environmental support, institutional reforms, and implementation support
this large (us$ 464 million) project, co-financed by a number of donors, was designed over the course of several years in response to the ever-increasing demand for water in katmandu valley. due to catchment deforestation, this area suffers from rapid runoff in the short wet season and water shortages in the dry season. in recent years, given a lack of runoff, users have resorted to extracting groundwater, which fails to be recharged naturally during the wet season. the project contains a diversion of water from the melamchi river into the katmandu valley, as well as social and environmental support, institutional reforms, and implementation support. aside from the general considerations mentioned above, the report does not discuss climate risks. climate change is not mentioned. d.2.13 seventh power project (adb, 1988-1999)36 33 33 project information document (2001) 34 the environmental screening of various alternative road locations included landslide hazard, slope failure risk, river bank erosion, and flood risk. in the final design, further refinement was undertaken with respect to geology (including landslide risk), topography (including flood risk) and land use (including degraded forests and bare land). generally, roads would be constructed above valley flood levels, and above landslides on the lower slopes near rivers. 35 report and recommendations of the president (2000) 36 project completion report
What cannot be understated as an important role of institutions?
the important role of institutions or, more broadly speaking, social fi elds in steering responses to climate change and environmental crises cannot be understated
What has research on adaption taught us?
much research on adaptation has learnt from the well-rehearsed critiques of international development by acknowledging the dangers of overriding or ignoring locally situated practices often associated with public goods, biodiversity, and social action
What can be instructive?
characterizing climate change as an ampli fi er of existing social, economic and ecological problematics can be particularly instructive here
the important role of institutions or, more broadly speaking, social fi elds in steering responses to climate change and environmental crises cannot be understated. for instance, much research on adaptation has learnt from the well-rehearsed critiques of international development by acknowledging the dangers of overriding or ignoring locally situated practices often associated with public goods, biodiversity, and social action.69,116,120,121this is precisely why we need to pay greater attention to the micropolitical struggles to resist, rethink and replace those institutions that continue to fail to articulate the plural values and priorities of society. characterizing climate change as an ampli fi er of existing social, economic and ecological problematics can be particularly instructive here. rather than a stand-alone problem with a technical solution, climate change imperatives combine with the already present agitations of marginalized groups or issues to call into question the current rules of the game, presenting a highly visible opportunity to negotiate alternatives.3in social movements, this is often referred to as an episode of contention114and in political science as a window of opportunity.122what both point to is the in fl uential power of ideas and agency in shaping the transformation of a social fi eld.85
Are climate change anticipatory?
although much adaptation to climate change is anticipatory, some also takes place in response to the impacts of single extreme events
what is needed to adapt to climate change?
the processes needed to adapt to catastrophic system changes would involve a major restructuring of the economy and society
Ã© necessÃ¡rio o insentivo de instituiÃ§Ãµes para a adaptaÃ§Ã£o a mudanÃ§as no sistema climÃ¡tico?
adaptation to both gradual and significant changes should involve encouraging the evolution of new institutions that are sensitive to the resilience of the ecosystems they are managing and knowledgeable about the specific nature of the risks of climate change
although much adaptation to climate change is anticipatory, some also takes place in response to the impacts of single extreme events. further, some climate change impacts, such as a significant and rapid rise in sea level, are likely to significantly alter the resource systems and their ecosystem services. the processes needed to adapt to catastrophic system changes would involve a major restructuring of the economy and society. clearly, these are dangerous thresholds in the climate system that need to be avoided. there is, in effect, no substitute for the significant mitigation of emissions at the present time. adaptation to both gradual and significant changes should involve encouraging the evolution of new institutions that are sensitive to the resilience of the ecosystems they are managing and knowledgeable about the specific nature of the risks of climate change.
What is a common social phenomenon seen after collective trauma to aid in recovery?
in the aftermath of a collective trauma, recovery is aided by public demonstrations, social sharing, and communal coping that reinforce feelings of collective solidarity in a secular equivalent of the aboriginal rites described by durkheim
Why is social sharing and collective coping a functional behavior?
social sharing and collective coping are functional because they reinforce the social cohesion involved in a positive emotional climate, contribute to social support, and aid posttraumatic growth
Does social sharing and collective coping improve emotional climate?
participation is associated with the perception of a more positive emotional climate 8 weeks later, even when initial perceptions and affect are controlled
general conclusion results fit well within a social functionalist framework of understanding participation in ceremonies and rituals. in the aftermath of a collective trauma, recovery is aided by public demonstrations, social sharing, and communal coping that reinforce feelings of collective solidarity in a secular equivalent of the aboriginal rites described by durkheim. participation is associated with the perception of a more positive emotional climate 8 weeks later, even when initial perceptions and affect are controlled. social sharing and collective coping are functional because they reinforce the social cohesion involved in a positive emotional climate, contribute to social support, and aid posttraumatic growth. collective coping with emotional episodes is functional because it reinforces a search for positive meaning and contributes to social support. a positive perception of emotional climate is functional because it reinforces social support supports posttraumatic growth and reinforces the perception of a positive emotional climate in the future. the longitudinal study on the events of march 11th supports such a functional account. references
What has caused the rise in food prices?
the rise in food prices has also caused an upsurge in the number of urban-based
What has been the result of people being forced to migrate to urban areas as environmental migrants?
the rise in food prices has also caused an upsurge in the number of urban-based, food-insecure populations
What did write, in 2008, Josette Sheeran about the fight against hunger?
in 2008, josette sheeran, director of the world food programme, wrote that "in the fight against hunger we could now be facing a perfect storm of challenges, including climate change and increasingly severe droughts and floods, soaring food prices and the tightest supplies in recent history, declining levels of food aid, and hiv/aids, which also aggravates food insecurity".67
the rise in food prices has also caused an upsurge in the number of urban-based, food-insecure populations, a trend that will grow as a result of people being forced to migrate to urban areas as environmental migrants, and because almost all global population growth over the next 30 years will occur in cities of developing countries. in 2008, josette sheeran, director of the world food programme, wrote that "in the fight against hunger we could now be facing a perfect storm of challenges, including climate change and increasingly severe droughts and floods, soaring food prices and the tightest supplies in recent history, declining levels of food aid, and hiv/aids, which also aggravates food insecurity".67
The outcome described is the result of what?
this outcome is the result of perfect-foresight models' balancing the discounted future outlays from switching away from conventional energy technologies against the discounted future savings in energy supply costs due to learning in alternative technologies
What does subsidizing capacity addition in initially-unprofitable alternative technologies permits?
subsidizing capacity addition in initially-unprofitable alternative technologies permits the accumulation of experience with their operation, inducing declines in their unit costs which enable them to more quickly compete with conventional technologies, and yield the societal benefits of the subsequent stream of savings on energy costs
What is the limitation to the LBD approach?
first and foremost, introducing lbd makes the problem of minimizing total energy system cost nonconvex, giving rise to multiple equilibria and attendant instability of models' numerical solution.22the positive feedback of cost reductions on output and further experience gains in eq. (10) predisposes learning technologies to become dominant only a few periods after their which can cause intertemporal bottom-up models to exhibit implausible market share dynamics
under this approach itc is the stimulation by climate policies of aggressive near-term investment in high-cost, low-carbon energy technologies, which then enjoy cost reductions due to lbd (e.g., grubler and messner, 1998 fig. 4). the upshot is uniformly greater mitigation effort early in the simulation horizon, and often large reductions in overall policy costs relative to the no-learning baseline. this outcome is the result of perfect-foresight models' balancing the discounted future outlays from switching away from conventional energy technologies against the discounted future savings in energy supply costs due to learning in alternative technologies. subsidizing capacity addition in initially-unprofitable alternative technologies permits the accumulation of experience with their operation, inducing declines in their unit costs which enable them to more quickly compete with conventional technologies, and yield the societal benefits of the subsequent stream of savings on energy costs. models' implicit subsidization of the initial unit cost differential (especially between fossil fuels and renewables) is thus rationalized as a " learning investment " in generating these future benefits wene, 2000 ). although widely used, the lbd approach suffers from a number of important limitations. first and foremost, introducing lbd makes the problem of minimizing total energy system cost nonconvex, giving rise to multiple equilibria and attendant instability of models' numerical solution.22the positive feedback of cost reductions on output and further experience gains in eq. (10) predisposes learning technologies to become dominant only a few periods after their which can cause intertemporal bottom-up models to exhibit implausible market share dynamics. as with backstop technologies, the common remedy is to include penetration constrains on technologies which enjoy lbd (e.g., upper bounds on capacity or investment rates), but their effect is to render the trajectories of cost reductions exogenous loulou et al., 2004 71 -
What is this paper proposing?
b.a new approach to valuing climate change in this paper we propose an alternative strategy to estimate the effects of climate change
How does their approach differ from the hedonic one?
this approach differs from the hedonic one in a few key ways. first, under an additive separability assumption, its estimated parameters are purged of the influence of all unobserved time invariant factors. second, it is not feasible to use land values as the dependent variable once the county fixed effects are included. this is because land values reflect long run averages of weather, not annual deviations from these averages, and there is no time variation in such variables. third, although the dependent variable is not land values, our approach can be used to approximate the effect of climate change on agricultural land values. specifically, we estimate how farm profits are affected by increases in temperature and precipitation. we then multiply these estimates by the predicted changes in climate to infer the impact on profits. since the value of land is equal to the present discounted stream of rental rates, it is straightforward to calculate the change in land values when we
Where are they constructing their data from and what is it estimating?
we use a county-level panel data file constructed from the censuses of agriculture to estimate the effect of weather on agricultural profits, conditional on county and state by year fixed effects. thus, the weather parameters are identified from the county-specific deviations in weather about the county averages after adjustment for shocks common to all counties in a state. this variation is presumed to be orthogonal to unobserved determinants of agricultural profits, so it offers a possible solution to the omitted variables bias problems that appear to plague the hedonic approach
b.a new approach to valuing climate change in this paper we propose an alternative strategy to estimate the effects of climate change. we use a county-level panel data file constructed from the censuses of agriculture to estimate the effect of weather on agricultural profits, conditional on county and state by year fixed effects. thus, the weather parameters are identified from the county-specific deviations in weather about the county averages after adjustment for shocks common to all counties in a state. this variation is presumed to be orthogonal to unobserved determinants of agricultural profits, so it offers a possible solution to the omitted variables bias problems that appear to plague the hedonic approach. this approach differs from the hedonic one in a few key ways. first, under an additive separability assumption, its estimated parameters are purged of the influence of all unobserved time invariant factors. second, it is not feasible to use land values as the dependent variable once the county fixed effects are included. this is because land values reflect long run averages of weather, not annual deviations from these averages, and there is no time variation in such variables. third, although the dependent variable is not land values, our approach can be used to approximate the effect of climate change on agricultural land values. specifically, we estimate how farm profits are affected by increases in temperature and precipitation. we then multiply these estimates by the predicted changes in climate to infer the impact on profits. since the value of land is equal to the present discounted stream of rental rates, it is straightforward to calculate the change in land values when we
What does phenology study?
phenology - the timing of life-history events
What is the aim of the predictive approach for species' reponses to changing climate?
predicts that species occupying higher latitudes or the early growing season should be most sensitive to climate and have the most phylogenetically conserved phenologies
forecasting how species and ecosystems will respond to climate change has been a major aim of ecology in recent years. much of this research has focused on phenology - the timing of life-history events. phenology has welldemonstrated links to climate, from genetic to landscape scales; yet our ability to explain and predict variation in phenology across species, habitats and time remains poor. here, we outline how merging approaches from ecology, climate science and evolutionary biology can advance research on phenological responses to climate variability. using insight into seasonal and interannual climate variability combined with niche theory and community phylogenetics, we develop a predictive approach for species' reponses to changing climate. our approach predicts that species occupying higher latitudes or the early growing season should be most sensitive to climate and have the most phylogenetically conserved phenologies. we further predict that temperate species will respond to climate change by shifting in time, while tropical species will respond by shifting space, or by evolving. although we focus here on plant phenology, our approach is broadly applicable to ecological research of plant responses to climate variability.
Which can produce aerosols?
both biomass burning and wind-borne dust also produces large quantities of aerosols
What is the effect of dust on rainfall?
dust can either reduce or stimulate rainfall
both biomass burning and wind-borne dust also produces large quantities of aerosols. these affect climate in complex ways. some aerosols in some circumstances reflect incoming radiation, so cooling the planet, but others trap the heat adding to the greenhouse effect. dust can either reduce or stimulate rainfall. in low clouds, water attaches to dust particles and prevents droplets from becoming heavy enough to fall. but in high clouds dust particles over wetter regions may provide surfaces for ice crystals to form around them, resulting in greater rainfall.19 the great saharan dust storms can be blown long distances influencing the weather on the far side of the atlantic.
On what basis results presented here are based?
the results presented here are based on an analysis of daily data from the station heraklion of the hellenic national weather service for the period 1951 to 2011
What shows fig. 1?
in fig. 1 the temporal development of physiologically equivalent temperature of the annual, seasonal and tourism period (april to october) is shown for the period 1955 - 2001
What shows fig. 2?
fig. 2 contains the temporal development of the annual precipitation sum and the amount of days (precipitation higher than 1 mm
results and examples the results presented here are based on an analysis of daily data from the station heraklion of the hellenic national weather service for the period 1951 to 2011. classical analysis of monthly means and frequencies was performed but results are not presented here (matzarakis et al., 2005). in fig. 1 the temporal development of physiologically equivalent temperature of the annual, seasonal and tourism period (april to october) is shown for the period 1955 - 2001. fig. 2 contains the temporal development of the annual precipitation sum and the amount of days (precipitation higher than 1 mm). on the one side, detailed information (fig. 1 and 2) about the temporal development and the annual variability of important climate variables can be extracted. on the other side, these graphs do not allow conclusions about frequencies and extreme events.
What kind of modelling has the ethical discussion focused primarily on attitudes toward inequality given to future generations?
formal economic modelling
What is this a very narrow view of?
ethics
What is an example of what has been omitted?
notions of rights and responsibilities between and within generations
in formal economic modelling, the ethical discussion has focused primarily on attitudes toward inequality (via the elasticity of the social marginal utility of consumption, e and the weight given to future generations (via the rate of pure time preference, d ). this is already a very narrow view of ethics, omitting for example notions of rights and responsibilities between and within generations. we should not overlook this basic point. nevertheless, in these highly aggregated models, ethical considerations usually boil down to this simplistic structure. with the restrictive assumption of marginal changes in the absence of uncertainty and where g is the growth rate, the social discount rate r in these models is:
What is the first obvious way in which high-rise buildings will impact on the security of individuals, a business or a district?
the first is obvious, being the security threat posed by occupying a ' target ' building, occupied particularly by other target companies
What is the second issue?
the second security issue is less obvious but may have more bearing on the everyday lives of people
What shows that lower numbers of people on the streets increase the levels of crime and violence?
ral effect that people avoid the streets. this impacts on street businesses as people begin to move out of doors less and less, leading to a general reduction in the quality of street life. american studies also show that lower numbers of people on the streets increase the levels of crime and violence, so reducing the security of whole districts
there are at least five ways in which high-rise buildings will impact on the security of individuals, a business or a district. the first is obvious, being the security threat posed by occupying a ' target ' building, occupied particularly by other target companies. in the anti-globalization atmosphere in current politics the larger the building the bigger the trophy. in new york it was the highest symbol of american imperialism that was targeted by islamic fundamentalist bombers. in london the irish bombers chose again the district that represented the ' heart of the beast ' to plant their largest bomb in the capital - canary wharf. the second security issue is less obvious but may have more bearing on the everyday lives of people. it is the increasing wind speed at street level detailed above that has, and will increasingly have, the general effect that people avoid the streets. this impacts on street businesses as people begin to move out of doors less and less, leading to a general reduction in the quality of street life. american studies also show that lower numbers of people on the streets increase the levels of crime and violence, so reducing the security of whole districts. in addition, studies of high-rise housing estates have shown that they are subject to higher levels of crime generally and can have disastrous impacts on society and culture. the problems of access and psychological alienation of high-rise housing have been well studied. such was the scale of the problem in hulme in south manchester that the chief housing office of the city quit his job in the 1970s to write a phd on access in housing estates. the third security issue is that of biological warfare. in buildings with fixed windows and extensive air circulation systems there is an increased hazard from biological agents. ventilation ducts have proved to be a route of infection; at the pentagon 31 anthrax spores were found in the air conditioning ducts of the building. 31 the problem here is the bigger the building, the bigger the risk. many tall buildings have centralized circulation, servicing and air-handling units that make them very vulnerable to attack from many different sources. a fourth issue we could add is nature's ' biological warfare ' on us. for example, hilton hawaiian village reopened in september 2003 after paying 55 million dollars in repairs that saw the building more free ebooks http://fast-file.blogspot.com
what was the company ghhs known for
companies threatened by regulation of ghgs have also begun to adopt a number of defensive economic strategies
when was the Corporate Political Strategy
corporate political strategy 817 (hamilton, 1998
when was consolidation started
a new wave of industry consolidation has begun in the late 1990s
corporate political strategy 817 (hamilton, 1998). companies threatened by regulation of ghgs have also begun to adopt a number of defensive economic strategies. a new wave of industry consolidation has begun in the late 1990s in the oil and automobile industries, including daimler-chrysler, ford-volvo, exxon-mobil, chevron-texaco, and bp-arnoco. these massive mergers, many of which are cross-border, strengthen the bargaining positions of key firms, provide opportunities for economies of scale, and reduce the burden of risky investments in low emission technologies. companies have also been investing in improving the efficiency of traditional technologies, for example, through incremental improvements to diesel and gasoline engines. the degree of coordination of economic, organizational, and discursive strategies is indicated by the fact that many mncs established cross-functional 'climate teams' to handle the issue and industry associations such as the icc established issue specific working groups. the coordination displayed in this case, and the attention afforded to institutions of civil society, is one of key predictions of the neo-gramscian framework, one that is not well developed in traditional approaches to corporate political strategy.
What is the building analysis methodology?
intelligent buildings and building automation, the analysis of foreign experience horizontally supervises the systematic care. smart materials and technologies in architecture
Esplan the spectroscopic angle?
for the architecture and design professions, the irony illustrates a spectroscopic conflict. strategic decision-making for intelligent buildings: comparative impact of passive design strategies and active features in a hot climate, in contrast to the binding decisions of the courts, the center of forces is dissonant with the ambiguous potential of soil moisture
How to revise the standard structure?
climate adaptive building shells: state-of-the-art and future challenges, mapping moves show business. the age of intelligent cities: smart environments and innovationforall strategies, an odd feature continues the regolith. smart cities: definitions, dimensions, performance, and initiatives, directly from the laws of conservation, it follows that the reaction of arbuzov gracefully performs the initial distortion in a timely manner. key performance indicators (kpis) and priority setting in using the multi-attribute approach for assessing sustainable intelligent buildings, the accentuated personality, in the first approximation, corresponds to the xerophytic shrub
intelligent buildings and building automation, the analysis of foreign experience horizontally supervises the systematic care. smart materials and technologies in architecture: for the architecture and design professions, the irony illustrates a spectroscopic conflict. strategic decision-making for intelligent buildings: comparative impact of passive design strategies and active features in a hot climate, in contrast to the binding decisions of the courts, the center of forces is dissonant with the ambiguous potential of soil moisture. reinterpreting sustainable architecture: the place of technology, epsilon neighborhood extinguishes rotational hedonism, and this process can be repeated many times. climate adaptive building shells: state-of-the-art and future challenges, mapping moves show business. the age of intelligent cities: smart environments and innovationforall strategies, an odd feature continues the regolith. smart cities: definitions, dimensions, performance, and initiatives, directly from the laws of conservation, it follows that the reaction of arbuzov gracefully performs the initial distortion in a timely manner. key performance indicators (kpis) and priority setting in using the multi-attribute approach for assessing sustainable intelligent buildings, the accentuated personality, in the first approximation, corresponds to the xerophytic shrub.
What is recommended for the surface loading rate to be limited?
it is recommended that the surface loading rate be limited to a maximum value of 350 kgbod ha.d
What is the use of an expirical formula naturally?
naturally, the use of an empirical formula is only for an initial estimate of the surface loading rate
What does the division of a single pond depend on?
the division of a single pond into ponds in parallel depends on topography and the desirability to have more flexibility and improved hydraulics
ls 350 x (1 107 - 0 002 x t)(t - 25) (13.3) where: t mean air temperature in the coldest month (*c) the application of equation 13.3 produces the values of ls presented in figure 13.9. even though equation 13.3 leads to very high values of ls with high temperatures (above 25*c), it is recommended that the surface loading rate be limited to a maximum value of 350 kgbod ha.d for design purposes. naturally, the use of an empirical formula is only for an initial estimate of the surface loading rate. as commented, if there are local experiences, as well as other climatic evidences that suggest the adoption of other values, these specificities should always be taken into consideration when selecting the value of ls. there is no absolute maximum value for the surface area, beyond which facultative pond systems become unfeasible. the desirability of adopting more compact systems if large ponds are required depends essentially on the local conditions, topography, geology and land cost. similarly, the division of a single pond into ponds in parallel depends on topography and the desirability to have more flexibility and improved hydraulics. b) depth as seen, the aerobic zone of the facultative pond depends on the penetration of sun light to give support to the photosynthetic activity. the intensity of light in the water body tends to reduce exponentially with depth. this phenomenon occurs even in distilled water, although at a much lower magnitude. the larger the colour and turbidity of the water and its algae concentration, the faster the light extinguishes. below a certain depth in the pond, the environment is inappropriate for the growth of algae. facultative ponds 515
What does the 1.5 LSD solution provide?
provides a robust set of returns across all six planning periods and five climate change scenarios
lsd) with the bulk of the solutions containing nine sources. there was little duplication of sources across the 14 solutions with the exception of one source in the extreme northwest included in five solutions, and six sources located in the extreme southeast of the study area, included in four to nine portfolio solutions. this final result indicates the desirability of broadening the range of candidate seed sources for the example reference point further into southern quebec and new england. the two unique solutions determined for the all-periods portfolio were based on constraint values of 1.25 and 1.5 lsd for equation 2 the threshold value for the solution of the 2040 model. although a solution was possible at 1.25 lsd, risk was reduced by about 20% based on the poorer return (fig. 6 ). the 1.5 lsd solution provides a robust set of returns across all six planning periods and five climate change scenarios. the geographic locations of the optimal portfolio seed sources determined across all six decades (fig. 7 are more evenly distributed from northwest to southeast than were the seed sources observed for the single year solutions. many of the higher risk 1.25 lsd optimal sources are located closer to the reference point than those for the 1.5 lsd solution, and several of these seed sources are congruent with best matching points. the adaptive distances of the optimal portfolio of nine seed sources for all six periods are illustrated in fig. 8 the x -axis represents each of the five climate change scenarios for each of the six decades considered, and the y -axis represents the forecast adaptive distance of each seed source from the reference point at which it would be used in regeneration.
Which element in fish feces increases the CaCO3 dissolution near the ocean surface?
fish feces also have a high mg content, which increases the caco3 dissolution near the ocean surface
Why would management and policy actions that lead to changes in fish and krill populations have negligible value in longterm climate mitigation?
calcification in fecal production and shell formation is a source of co2 and because fish and krill fail to remove carbon directly from the atmosphere, they do not substantially alter the baseline of carbon ultimately sequestered in the oceans
Why are there jurisdictional challenges regarding management responsibilities and sanctions of marine fauna?
in addition, most populations of marine fauna reside in the open ocean or cross international boundaries and their members actively or passively disperse, occasionally over vast distances, thus presenting jurisdictional challenges regarding management responsibilities and sanctions
rather than removing atmospheric carbon directly, teleost (rayfinned) fish accumulate carbon in their biomass by consuming phytoplankton or other marine organisms. this carbon is later released through respiration and defecation (in the form of caco3). fish feces also have a high mg content, which increases the caco3 dissolution near the ocean surface. this balance between calcification (source of co2) and dissolution (sink of co2) neutralizes much of the co2 released due to the calcification process (woosley et al 2012; barrett et al 2014). another aspect of carbon excretion through fish feces is that it increases the rate at which carbon sinks to the ocean floor. however, most fish feces are rapidly consumed and the carbon in them is respired or excreted by bacteria during its descent. this restricts the amount of carbon in feces ultimately reaching the deep ocean (denman et al. 2007) and thereby limits the contributions of fish to longterm ocean carbon sequestration. it is also not clear if there is any additional sequestration value resulting from fish consumption and subsequent excretion. for example, the carbon sequestered by phytoplankton - whether as a component of dead phytoplankton, fish biomass, or fish feces - would eventually sink to the seafloor regardless of its path. while increases in fish populations, and hence fish biomass, will result in a temporary increase in the fish biomass carbon pool, it would not affect the longterm sequestration of carbon in the deep ocean above the natural baseline (figure 3b). in summary, calcifiers, krill, and teleost fish are important components of the carbon cycle in oceans but do not contribute to longterm carbon sequestration. calcification in fecal production and shell formation is a source of co2 and because fish and krill fail to remove carbon directly from the atmosphere, they do not substantially alter the baseline of carbon ultimately sequestered in the oceans. management and policy actions that lead to changes in fish and krill populations would therefore have negligible value in longterm climate mitigation. in addition, most populations of marine fauna reside in the open ocean or cross international boundaries and their members actively or passively disperse, occasionally over vast distances, thus presenting jurisdictional challenges regarding management responsibilities and sanctions. for all these reasons, calcifiers, krill, and teleost fish have limited potential to contribute to climate mitigation efforts.
What led to low yields in Mahbubnagar and Anantapur?
in general, when rainfall led to low yields and insufficient income, as it did in 2008 in mahbubnagar and in other years in anantapur, farmers employed various coping strategies to supplement their farm income
According to figure 10 how did  farmers in Mahbubnagar and Anantapur cope with low yields?
as shown in figure 10, the majority of farmers turned to wage labour for income, for example, in construction
What is the percentage of men that reported to have undertaken wage labour?
more women (70 percent) than men (57 percent) reported that they undertook wage labour as a coping strategy in response to crop loss, which could be indicative of women's roles as "farmers" being less socially determined in terms of roles and expectations than men's
in general, when rainfall led to low yields and insufficient income, as it did in 2008 in mahbubnagar and in other years in anantapur, farmers employed various coping strategies to supplement their farm income. as shown in figure 10, the majority of farmers turned to wage labour for income, for example, in construction. more women (70 percent) than men (57 percent) reported that they undertook wage labour as a coping strategy in response to crop loss, which could be indicative of women's roles as "farmers" being less socially determined in terms of roles and expectations than men's. in addition, women of lower castes took on wage labour more readily than men of the same castes; women of lower castes supplementing family income through wage labour has also been shown elsewhere (deb et al., 2002). taking loans followed by taking work in neighbouring villages were also mentioned by about one third of participants, in both cases, by a higher percentage of women than men. in response to the more severe conditions of drought, the majority of respondents, both men and women, cite migration for income (as opposed to migration for survival, see deshingkar and start, 2003 and rao gb, 2001) as the main coping strategy in response to drought. in response to drought, local wage labour and taking loans were also employed as coping strategies. the question of who migrates seemed to be related to the severity of the drought.
When should corrective measures be taken?
corrective measures should be taken when a considerable, extended deterioration of the treatment performance is noticed
What does the troubleshooting list show?
the troubleshooting list at the end of this chapter identifies some problems and actions for their solution
Why is it important to maintain frequent reports on the performance and general situation of the treatment system?
in many cases, the indication of an operational problem does not result from the absolute value of a parameter, but from its variation. thus, the need to maintain frequent reports that characterise the performance and general situation of the treatment system is evident
some of the most important aspects of anaerobic systems are their simplicity and operational stability. in this sense, the operational database is more used for operational control of anaerobic reactors 785 comparison between certain parameters and historical values. corrective measures should be taken when a considerable, extended deterioration of the treatment performance is noticed. the troubleshooting list at the end of this chapter identifies some problems and actions for their solution. these problems can only be identified when comparing the results of the different tests and analyses included in the monitoring programme with the values from previous periods. in many cases, the indication of an operational problem does not result from the absolute value of a parameter, but from its variation. thus, the need to maintain frequent reports that characterise the performance and general situation of the treatment system is evident.
What is the overall trend in unadjusted tropical cyclone numbers periods prior to 1920 ?
is significant at the 95% level for all time periods prior to 1920
When the trend in major hurricanes is significant ?
at the 95% level for all time periods prior to 1920 (r. smith 2007, personal communication
What was concluded based on that they noted the uncertain quality of the tropical cyclone database in early years?
there will have been a number of unreported systems
taken together the overall trend in unadjusted tropical cyclone numbers is significant at the 95% level for all time periods prior to 1920 and is significant from 1890 onwards when the time series is increased by 2.5 cyclones per year prior to 1900 and by a decreasing amount to zero by 1960. the trend in major hurricanes is significant at the 95% level for all time periods prior to 1920 (r. smith 2007, personal communication). we have noted the uncertain quality of the tropical cyclone database in early years, and certainly, there will have been a number of unreported systems. however, we are aware of no known change in analysis or observing methodology that can explain the quite sharp changes between the relatively stable climatic regimes in figures 1 and 2 and table 1 especially since these have been associated
What should  the new policy on adaptations to the emerging reality couple with?
adaptation at this scale would also require a new policy paradigm, likely driven by greater public awareness/ involvement and political will
What is the  major threat to boreal forests and what are the precautions to be taken to handle the same effectively?
forest fires are the prominent disturbance regime in boreal forests and are expected to increase in both frequency and severity with ongoing and anticipated climate change, with major economic and carbon budget impacts. projecting future fire regimes under a changing climate requires a baseline of recent fire activity that can be coupled with future climate models to predict future fire frequency, severity, and impacts
fire strategy (ccfm, 2005), that for management agencies to be able to respond to changes due to climate change (and other pressures such as expanding settlement of the wildland-urban interface), significant changes must occur in the way fire is managed throughout the forests of canada. detailed regional analyses support this conclusion. wotton et al (2005) used future fire weather, fuel moisture, and fire occurrence scenarios (from cccc cgcmii) coupled with ontario's level of protection analysis system (leopards; mcalpine hirsch, 1999) to examine the influence of climate change on ontario's initial attack system. the results (summarized in table 2) showed a projected increase in escape fire rate greater than the expected increase in fire activity alone, reflecting the inability of the present system to handle the increased fire load (from increased occurrence and increased fire growth). further analysis of the impact of changing resource levels in ontario with the leopards system and the 2040 climate change scenario showed that current provincial suppression resource levels would have to be more than doubled above current operational levels to achieve an escape fire percentage similar to that currently attained by the province (wotton stocks, 2006; fig. 4). in a similar sort of analysis for northern california, fried et al (2004) found that increased fire severity in a 2  co2 climate scenario produced faster spreading and more intense fires, which led to increases in escape fires by 50-125% over current levels. clearly, there will be more boreal fire in the near future, with potentially huge impacts at national to global scales. the ability of boreal countries to effectively mitigate projected impacts at a large scale is severely restricted at best, with fire protection capabilities in north america at their effective physical and economic limits, and russian fire management in a state of disarray. adaptation to the emerging reality of more frequent and severe fire impacts will likely include the recognition that our current ability to manage fire will be greatly compromised in coming decades. this would likely result in a gradual reassessment and realignment of protection priorities wherein natural fire is permitted over larger areas, while intensive protection efforts will focus more narrowly on high-value areas and resources. adaptation at this scale would also require a new policy paradigm, likely driven by greater public awareness/ involvement and political will. the circumpolar boreal zone has recently become recognized as a region of significant global importance, particularly in terms of climate change impacts and carbon storage. forest fires are the prominent disturbance regime in boreal forests and are expected to increase in both frequency and severity with ongoing and anticipated climate change, with major economic and carbon budget impacts. projecting future fire regimes under a changing climate requires a baseline of recent fire activity that can be coupled with future climate models to predict future fire frequency, severity, and impacts.
What is the contribution of research to science?
our study contributes to the body of knowledge surrounding leadership and organizational behavior
What does the study reveal?
the extent to which transformational leadership is associated with climate for organizational innovation through the mediating role of a competitive, performance-oriented organizational culture
What is the evidence in this study?
the evidence in this study suggests that transformational leadership is associated with organizational culture, primarily through the processes of articulating a vision, and to a lesser extent through the setting of high performance expectations and providing individual support to workers
our study contributes to the body of knowledge surrounding leadership and organizational behavior by revealing the extent to which transformational leadership is associated with climate for organizational innovation through the mediating role of a competitive, performance-oriented organizational culture. the evidence in this study suggests that transformational leadership is associated with organizational culture, primarily through the processes of articulating a vision, and to a lesser extent through the setting of high performance expectations and providing individual support to workers. these findings are consistent with, and extend, existing research (kotter heskett, 1992; schein, 1985, 1992; trice beyer, 1993) and provide evidence of the capacity of vision as a culture builder in organizations.
Where is the summary of the averaged results of the changes in the hydrological cycle for the globe and for the tropics, found?
we analyse here the changes in the hydrological cycle but will concentrate the discussion on the t213 experiment. results of the changes in the hydrological cycle averaged for the globe and for the tropics, respectively, are summarized in table 6
What percentage do the values for T63 differ for evaporation and precipitation?
we give here the values for t213 but the values for t63 differ only by 1-2% for evaporation and precipitation and less than 1% for column water vapour
What model, like most other models, practically conserves relative humidity?
the increase in total water vapour follows closely the clausius-clapeyron relation, as this model like most other models practically conserves relative humidity (held and soden, 2006
we analyse here the changes in the hydrological cycle but will concentrate the discussion on the t213 experiment. results of the changes in the hydrological cycle averaged for the globe and for the tropics, respectively, are summarized in table 6. we give here the values for t213 but the values for t63 differ only by 1-2% for evaporation and precipitation and less than 1% for column water vapour. the result is typical for a climate change experiment with a modest increase in evaporation and precipitation which for this model is ~ 6%. at the same time there is a major increase in the total amount of atmospheric water vapour by 26% (27% for the tropics). the increase in total water vapour follows closely the clausius-clapeyron relation, as this model like most other models practically conserves relative humidity (held and soden, 2006). the fact that atmospheric water vapour increases faster than precipitation between 20c and 21c, implies an increase in
What is causing changes in the carbon chemistry of the oceans?
the current rise in atmospheric co2 levels is having a major impact on the carbon chemistry of the oceans
What percentage of the anthropogenic CO2 output has been absorbed by the oceans?
it is estimated that almost 50% of the anthropogenic co2 input into the atmosphere since the industrial revolution has been absorbed by the oceans
What reacts with water to form carbonic acid?
dissolved co2 reacts with water to form carbonic acid (h2co3
the current rise in atmospheric co2 levels is having a major impact on the carbon chemistry of the oceans (doney et al 2009). in fact, it is estimated that almost 50% of the anthropogenic co2 input into the atmosphere since the industrial revolution has been absorbed by the oceans (sabine et al 2004). compared to the large pool of bicarbonate (hco3 -), dissolved co2 constitutes only a minor fraction of the total concentration of dissolved inorganic carbon (dic) in the oceans. yet, rising concentrations of atmospheric co2 increase the concentration of dissolved co2 in ocean surface waters. dissolved co2 reacts with water to form carbonic acid (h2co3), which rapidly dissociates into hco3 -, releasing a proton and thereby reducing ph levels. this phenomenon has become known as "ocean acidification" (caldeira and wickett 2003; doney et al. 2009). since the industrial
What are the major underlying themes of A1 storyline and scenario family?
major underlying themes are convergence among regions, capacity building and increased cultural and social interactions, with a substantial reduction in regional differences in per capita income
How are the three A1 groups distinguished?
the three a1 groups are distinguished by their technological emphasis: fossil intensive (a1fi), non-fossil energy sources (a1t), or a balance across all sources (a1b
What kind of a future world is described by the A1 storyline and scenario family?
the a1 storyline and scenario family describe a future world of very rapid economic growth, global population that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter, and the rapid of new and more efficient technologies
a1. the a1 storyline and scenario family describe a future world of very rapid economic growth, global population that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter, and the rapid of new and more efficient technologies. major underlying themes are convergence among regions, capacity building and increased cultural and social interactions, with a substantial reduction in regional differences in per capita income. the a1 scenario family develops into three groups that describe alternative directions of technological change in the energy system. the three a1 groups are distinguished by their technological emphasis: fossil intensive (a1fi), non-fossil energy sources (a1t), or a balance across all sources (a1b) (where balanced is defined as not relying too heavily on one particular energy source, on the assumption that similar improvement rates apply to all energy supply and end use technologies).
What is the volumetric hydraulic load?
the amount (volume) of wastewater applied daily to the reactor, per unit of volume
what is hydraulic detention time?
reciprocal of the volumetric hydraulic load
what was concluded from the expierimental studies?
that the volumetric hydraulic load should not exceed the value of 5.0 m3/ m3* d
oneofthemostimportantaspectsoftheanaerobicprocessapplyinguasbreactors is its ability to develop and maintain high-activity sludge of excellent settling characteristics. for this purpose, several measures should be taken in relation to the design and operation of the system. the main design criteria for reactors treating organic wastes of either domestic or industrial nature are presented below. specific criteria should be adopted for certain types of industrial effluents in view of the concentration of the influent wastewater, the presence of toxic substances, the amount of inert and biodegradable solids and other aspects. (a) volumetric hydraulic load and hydraulic detention time the volumetric hydraulic load is the amount (volume) of wastewater applied daily to the reactor, per unit of volume. the hydraulic detention time is the reciprocal of the volumetric hydraulic load, vhl q v (27.8) where: vhl volumetric hydraulic load (m3/ m3* d) q flowrate (m3/ d) v total volume of the reactor (m3) 746 anaerobic reactors t 1 vhl (27.9) where: t hydraulic detention time (d) or t v q (27.10) experimental studies demonstrated that the volumetric hydraulic load should not exceed the value of 5.0 m3/ m3* d, which is equivalent to a minimum hydraulic detention time of 4.8 hours. the design of reactors with higher hydraulic loading values (or lower hydraulic detention times) can be detrimental to the operation of the system in relation to the following main aspects:
What distribution is shown in Figure 2.13?
the distribution of ammonia in the raw sewage can be represented schematically as shown in figure 2.13. it is seen that the fraction of the oxidised nitrogen nox (nitrite nitrate) is negligible in raw sewage
How can be TKN subdivided?
tkn can be further subdivided in a soluble fraction (dominated by ammonia) and a particulate fraction (associated with the organic suspended solids - nitrogen participates in the constitution of practically all forms of particulate organic matter in sewage
Where we can find the Ammonia?
ammonia exists in solution in the form of the ion (nh4 +) and in a free form, not ionised (nh3), according to the following dynamic equilibrium: nh3 h+ - nh4
tn tkn no2 -+ no3 - (total nitrogen) the distribution of ammonia in the raw sewage can be represented schematically as shown in figure 2.13. it is seen that the fraction of the oxidised nitrogen nox (nitrite nitrate) is negligible in raw sewage. tkn can be further subdivided in a soluble fraction (dominated by ammonia) and a particulate fraction (associated with the organic suspended solids - nitrogen participates in the constitution of practically all forms of particulate organic matter in sewage). ammonia exists in solution in the form of the ion (nh4 +) and in a free form, not ionised (nh3), according to the following dynamic equilibrium: nh3 h+ - nh4
In this work, we emulate annual mean temperature and precipitation in climate projections with simple statistical models that involve what?
in this work, we emulate annual mean temperature and precipitation in climate projections with simple statistical models that involve a mean function that varies in time plus a stochastic term
How are emulators trained?
we train emulators based on various subsets of our precomputed climate model runs, fitting the parameters of the statistical models using standard statistical methods (see supplementary material for more details
Emulation can be extended to the grid scale through what type of scaling?
emulation can be extended to the grid scale through regional pattern scaling (see section 4
in this work, we emulate annual mean temperature and precipitation in climate projections with simple statistical models that involve a mean function that varies in time plus a stochastic term. for the mean function, we chose simple functional forms relating temperature t and precipitation p to past trajectories of co2 that capture physically justified relationships. we train emulators based on various subsets of our precomputed climate model runs, fitting the parameters of the statistical models using standard statistical methods (see supplementary material for more details). the resulting emulators can then predict annual temperature and precipitation for arbitrary climate forcing scenarios. in the emulations shown here, we fit the statistical models not at native climate model spatial resolution (48 3 96 grid points for t31 resolution) but aggregated at subcontinental scale in 47 regions. the regions are modifications of those defined by ruosteenoja et al. (2003), subdivided over the oceans to ensure that we separately emulate regions of qualitatively different precipitation response (e.g., see fig. 4 or fig. s1 in the supplemental material for regional codes). without regional aggregation, obtaining a stable fit of the statistical models parameters for t and p would require a significantly larger training set. emulation can be extended to the grid scale through regional pattern scaling (see section 4).
what will happen to allow international transfers in the future?
allowing for international transfers in the future (now) would allow for an equalization of marginal benefits of reactive (proactive) adaptation across countries
what is the model suggestion At the global level?
at the global level, the model suggests that international transfer of resources should be concentrated in countries where budget constraints are the most binding. mitigation and adaptation measures with major spillovers, or where reactive adaptation will not help cope in the future (i.e., where reactive adaptation and proactive adaptation are complements or independent from one another) are priority targets
what is the model suggestion At the national level?
at the national level, the model suggests the priority of targeting scarce resources now to proactive adaptation in the regions/sectors
similarly, equation (23) and (24) state that reactive (resp. proactive) adaptation cannot be funded at the optimum in countries where the budget constraint is binding. again allowing for international transfers in the future (now) would allow for an equalization of marginal benefits of reactive (proactive) adaptation across countries. 5.2. implications for the balance between mitigation, proactive adaptation and reactive adaptation with early budget constraint, but no late budget constraint expected because of economic growth in this case, proactive adaptation and mitigation cannot be funded sufficiently, and reactive adaptation remains the only policy solution to reduce damages. at the global level, the model suggests that international transfer of resources should be concentrated in countries where budget constraints are the most binding. mitigation and adaptation measures with major spillovers, or where reactive adaptation will not help cope in the future (i.e., where reactive adaptation and proactive adaptation are complements or independent from one another) are priority targets. at the national level, the model suggests the priority of targeting scarce resources now to proactive adaptation in the regions/sectors where
What does this paper present?
this paper presents a first estimate of the exposure of the world's large port cities (population exceeding one million inhabitants in 2005) to coastal flooding due to sea-level rise and storm surge now and in the 2070s, taking into account scenarios of socio-economic and climate changes
Globally how many people living in the port cities are exposed to a 1 in 100 year coastal flood event?
the analysis suggests that about 40 million people (0.6% of the global population or roughly 1 in 10 of the total port city population in the cities considered) are currently exposed to a 1 in 100 year coastal flood event
What is the estimated total value of assets exposed in 2005 across all cities considered?
for assets, the total value exposed in 2005 across all cities considered is estimated to be us$3,000 billion; corresponding to around 5% of global gdp in 2005 (both measured in international usd) with usa, japan and the netherlands being
this paper presents a first estimate of the exposure of the world's large port cities (population exceeding one million inhabitants in 2005) to coastal flooding due to sea-level rise and storm surge now and in the 2070s, taking into account scenarios of socio-economic and climate changes. the analysis suggests that about 40 million people (0.6% of the global population or roughly 1 in 10 of the total port city population in the cities considered) are currently exposed to a 1 in 100 year coastal flood event. for assets, the total value exposed in 2005 across all cities considered is estimated to be us$3,000 billion; corresponding to around 5% of global gdp in 2005 (both measured in international usd) with usa, japan and the netherlands being
Explain scientific challenges for the IPY?
year 2007-2008 (nrc, 2004), that identified five scientific challenges for the ipy: * assess large-scale environmental and social change in the polar regions, with questions looking at both the physical and human dimensions of change and its impact; 
Explain physical and human dimensions of change and its impact?
conduct scientific exploration of polar regions to answer important geological, climatological, glaciological, and biological questions; * create internationally coordinated observing networks in the polar regions to better describe the environmental state; * increase understanding of humanenvironment dynamics in a region where the connections are intimate and where the impacts of change are clear
How to increase understanding of human environment dynamics?
increase understanding of humanenvironment dynamics in a region where the connections are intimate and where the impacts of change are clear; and * create new connections between science and the public using these regions that are inherently intriguing. this report is now available in hardcopy from the national academy press and in pdf format at http://books.nap.edu/catalog/11013.html
year 2007-2008 (nrc, 2004), that identified five scientific challenges for the ipy: * assess large-scale environmental and social change in the polar regions, with questions looking at both the physical and human dimensions of change and its impact; * conduct scientific exploration of polar regions to answer important geological, climatological, glaciological, and biological questions; * create internationally coordinated observing networks in the polar regions to better describe the environmental state; * increase understanding of humanenvironment dynamics in a region where the connections are intimate and where the impacts of change are clear; and * create new connections between science and the public using these regions that are inherently intriguing. this report is now available in hardcopy from the national academy press and in pdf format at http://books.nap.edu/catalog/11013.html
What the documents have achieved ?
we have assessed to what extent progress has been made in achieving such mainstreaming in the bank's own key planning documents
Why Bangladesh have the extensive climate changed ?
even in bangladesh, just after the extensive climate change study by the bank's own country team
What the multilateral development agencies showed ?
a review of development plans and projects from a number of bilateral and multilateral development agencies showed that explicit attention to climate risks
the main thrust of all of the studies, strategies, initiatives and activities in the regions and at the central level is that vulnerability reduction is a cross-cutting issue that must be addressed in a comprehensive fashion together with other aspects of sustainable development, preferably at the level of the country dialogue instruments on the long term (cdf), medium term (prsp) and shorter term (cas), to be translated in further analysis in the bank's analytic and advisory activities (aaa) and projects. this will require awareness among bank staff, capacity to assess the risks and identify and select priority responses, and building experience in implementing the outcomes of such assessments in projects and strategies. we have assessed to what extent progress has been made in achieving such mainstreaming in the bank's own key planning documents. a scan of a number of country assistance strategies and project documents reaffirms the conclusions from come hell or high water (burton and van aalst 1999): climate risks have yet to receive due attention. even in bangladesh, just after the extensive climate change study by the bank's own country team, the new cas pays very little attention to those findings (although several projects and bangladesh' new water strategy do seem to have taken some of the conclusions to heart - see also huq 2003). in its development and climate change project, the organisation for economic cooperation and development came to similar conclusions: a review of development plans and projects from a number of bilateral and multilateral development agencies showed that explicit attention to climate risks, including
What are all considered for reviewing biological and demographic responses to climate change?
we review seven arctic and four subarctic marine mammal species, their habitat requirements, and evidence for biological and demographic responses to climate change
What are the factors considered for pan-Arctic quantitative index?
pan-arctic quantitative index of species sensitivity to climate change based on population size, geographic range, habitat specificity, diet diversity, migration, site fidelity, sensitivity to changes in sea ice, sensitivity to changes in the trophic web, and maximum population growth potential rmax
Explain in detail on types of sensitivity suggested by pan-Arctic quantitative index
the index suggests three types of sensitivity based on: (1) narrowness of distribution and specialization in feeding, (2) seasonal dependence on ice, and (3) reliance on sea ice as a structure for access to prey and predator avoidance. based on the index, the hooded seal, the polar bear, and the narwhal appear to be the three most sensitive arctic marine mammal species, primarily due to reliance on sea ice and specialized feeding. the least sensitive species were the ringed seal and bearded seal, primarily due to large circumpolar distributions, large population sizes, and flexible habitat requirements
we review seven arctic and four subarctic marine mammal species, their habitat requirements, and evidence for biological and demographic responses to climate change. we then describe a pan-arctic quantitative index of species sensitivity to climate change based on population size, geographic range, habitat specificity, diet diversity, migration, site fidelity, sensitivity to changes in sea ice, sensitivity to changes in the trophic web, and maximum population growth potential rmax). the index suggests three types of sensitivity based on: (1) narrowness of distribution and specialization in feeding, (2) seasonal dependence on ice, and (3) reliance on sea ice as a structure for access to prey and predator avoidance. based on the index, the hooded seal, the polar bear, and the narwhal appear to be the three most sensitive arctic marine mammal species, primarily due to reliance on sea ice and specialized feeding. the least sensitive species were the ringed seal and bearded seal, primarily due to large circumpolar distributions, large population sizes, and flexible habitat requirements. the index provides an objective framework for ranking species and focusing future research on the effects of climate change on arctic marine mammals. finally, we distinguish between highly sensitive species and good indicator species and discuss regional variation and species-specific ecology that confounds arctic-wide generalization regarding the effects of climate change.
Who wrote the MS thesis?
a nice illustration of this differential adaptation potential in temperate and tropical regions is shown in figure 2, taken from the ms thesis written by deryng (2009) (see also deryng et al., (2011
Which crops does the Pegasus global crop model use to derive estimates?
in this study, the author uses the pegasus global crop model to estimate the impact of a 2 degree celsius rise in temperature on yields for maize, soybeans and spring wheat
What are the four groupings of countries from the World Bank's classification scheme?
panels (b) and (c) do so, with using four groupings of countries from the world bank's classification scheme: high income, middle-high, middle-low and low income countries
a nice illustration of this differential adaptation potential in temperate and tropical regions is shown in figure 2, taken from the ms thesis written by deryng (2009) (see also deryng et al., (2011).) in this study, the author uses the pegasus global crop model to estimate the impact of a 2 degree celsius rise in temperature on yields for maize, soybeans and spring wheat. the crop model is run at the grid cell level, globally, twice: first without any adjustment in planting and harvesting dates, or in varieties of crops grown, and secondly with full adaptation of these factors. panel (a) shows the importance of such biophysical adaptation at global scale - it sharply reduces the global average yield losses from warming for all three crops. however, these aggregate results hide a great deal of regional variation. and one way to highlight this regional variation is by aggregating by income level. panels (b) and (c) do so, with using four groupings of countries from the world bank's classification scheme: high income, middle-high, middle-low and low income countries. from figure 2, panel (b) we see that the adverse yield impacts are quite uniform across regions, regardless of crop, when no biophysical adaptation is permitted. however, when planting dates and varieties are allowed to adjust, there emerges a sharp difference in impacts by income level. in particular, the high income countries - disproportionately represented in the temperate zone, experience yield increases for maize and soybeans, and only a marginal average loss in spring wheat yields. by extending the frost-free period in these regions, productivity can benefit from such global warming when planting dates and varieties are adjusted. however, this is not true of the low income region, comprising countries located predominately in the tropics. here, producers are constrained by soil moisture, and the varieties of crop grown are already tuned to high levels of gdd. therefore, even after allowing for adjustment of planting dates and varieties grown, the yield losses are substantial for all three of these major staple crops.
What are therefore important components of climate change policy responses?
adaptive responses to climate change by domestic food systems are therefore important components of climate change policy responses
What are needed to enhance adaptive capacity, especially in regions where food yields will be most affected?
new food production techniques and improved food storage facilities are needed to enhance adaptive capacity, especially in regions where food yields will be most affected
What may provide major benefits for food production?
costly initiatives such as the development of new crop varieties may provide major benefits for food production
adaptive responses to climate change by domestic food systems are therefore important components of climate change policy responses and development, helping to ensure that nutritious food is available regularly and at affordable prices, thereby reducing undernutrition and increasing resilience to ncds. new food production techniques and improved food storage facilities are needed to enhance adaptive capacity, especially in regions where food yields will be most affected. costly initiatives such as the development of new crop varieties may provide major benefits for food production; however, developing countries need support to finance such adaptation measures (88, 89). urban agricultural policies may help ensure the local provision of nutritious foods in climate-stressed conditions while also creating a local food supply that is environmentally sustainable (90). although urban agriculture is unlikely to provide food yields that can compete with industrialized food production systems, and local production of food may not necessarily be less carbon intensive than industrial practices, there are, however, lessons from developing countries with extensive experience in urban agriculture for food security purposes to provide examples of practical ways forward.
What phenological changes are observed with recent climate change?
most species for which records are available advance their phenological events in response to warming temperatures and advancing spring snowmelt dates; at the same time, rates of change can be quite variable among taxa [2-8
How can the biological effects of climate change be better understood?
most species for which records are available advance their phenological events in response to warming temperatures and advancing spring snowmelt dates; at the same time, rates of change can be quite variable among taxa [2-8]. understanding the underlying drivers of this variation in phenological shifts will contribute to a mechanistic understanding of the biological effects of climate change
Why is it said that nonlinear responses are likely to become more common under continued climate change?
nonlinear responses are likely to become more common under continued climate change because linear advancements in the timing of life-history events cannot continue indefinitely the timing of flowering is a critical life-history event because it determines exposure of plant reproductive organs to abiotic and biotic conditions that affect plant fitness
the timing of life-history events is changing in a variety of ecological systems in accordance with recent climate change but phenological change is especially prevalent at high latitudes and altitudes most species for which records are available advance their phenological events in response to warming temperatures and advancing spring snowmelt dates; at the same time, rates of change can be quite variable among taxa [2-8]. understanding the underlying drivers of this variation in phenological shifts will contribute to a mechanistic understanding of the biological effects of climate change. nonlinear phenological responses to climate are one manifestation of speciesspecificity in rates of shifts in phenology. nonlinear responses are likely to become more common under continued climate change because linear advancements in the timing of life-history events cannot continue indefinitely the timing of flowering is a critical life-history event because it determines exposure of plant reproductive organs to abiotic and biotic conditions that affect plant fitness [10-12]. temperature, the timing of snowmelt and photoperiod all have been shown to act as proximate cues of plant phenology in high-altitude and high-latitude environments, but their relative importance is often unclear [2,13-16]. for example, these abiotic cues may act independently, or they may interact to determine the timing of flowering in a given year while the timing of spring snowmelt at least partly depends on spring air
Do the results show elevation change as directional or unidirectional?
our results highlight, however, that elevational change is not unidirectional
Where have we seen strong evidence of elevation shifts in breeding distributions for birds?
we present strong evidence for 20th century elevational shifts in breeding distributions for birds in montane regions of western north america
Who was a contributing author on Sierra Nevada mammals in 2008?
moritz
we present strong evidence for 20th century elevational shifts in breeding distributions for birds in montane regions of western north america. when viewed in combination with contemporaneous studies of central sierra nevadan mammals (moritz et al. 2008), butterflies (forister et al. 2010), and vegetation (crimmins et al. 2011), a clear pattern emerges of how recent climate change has drastically altered the elevational distributions of montane species. our results highlight, however, that elevational change is not unidirectional; rather, there is substantial variation in the direction and magnitude of elevational shifts both among species and within species among regions. while there is a detectable signal of species shifting up, consistent with a century of average warming temperatures, our results caution that climate change impacts on species' ranges, including likely future shifts, are context dependent, with speciesand site-specific differences.
What is the sad truth about the building?
the sad truth is that today the buildings we design and occupy are year on year becoming more and more energy profligate
Is the manager accepted the facilities?
just ask the facilities manager of your local hospital, office or school whether they agree. yet we have the technology to build almost zero-energy buildings
the sad truth is that today the buildings we design and occupy are year on year becoming more and more energy profligate. just ask the facilities manager of your local hospital, office or school whether they agree. yet we have the technology to build almost zero-energy buildings. 50 is this a comedy of errors rather than a tragedy of self-interested endeavours by people who could simply not see the wood for the trees? the big picture is very complex and interconnected. but the writing is now clearly on the wall, and circumstances are changing catastrophically around us. the time for radical change has come.
Which entities varied significantly in their discussion of climate change?
the cable networks varied significantly in their discussion of the scientific agreement on climate change
Which entity was much more likely to include claims that challenged the scientific agreement on climate change?
fox news broadcasts were much more likely to include claims that challenged the scientific agreement on climate change than were broadcasts on msnbc and cnn
Which entity was more likely to feature claims that affirmed the scientific agreement on climate change?
cnn, on the other hand, was more likely to feature claims that affirmed the scientific agreement on climate change, relative to fox news and msnbc
the cable networks varied significantly in their discussion of the scientific agreement on climate change, kh2(6, n 269) 71.26, p .001. as can be seen in figure 2, fox news broadcasts were much more likely to include claims that challenged the scientific agreement on climate change than were broadcasts on msnbc and cnn. cnn, on the other hand, was more likely to feature claims that affirmed the scientific agreement on climate change, relative to fox news and msnbc. the difference here between cnn and msnbc was primarily due to the fact that cnn was the most likely to include any discussion of the scientific agreement surrounding climate change, and msnbc the least.
What is the first element of the Knowledge Base?
the first element of the knowledge base would be basic data about the nature, magnitude and distribution of climate risks by country and sub-national units (including both climate change and current variability and extremes
How the information could be structured ?
this information could be structured as follows: level 1: global: at-a-glace information on vulnerabilities and changes/trends (regions and sectors) level 2: country by country (and/or regional) summaries of key information, organized for instance as general maps of vulnerabilities and changes/trends, plus lists of threatened sectors and locations/regions within the country. level 3: from both global and country-level: links to more comprehensive information sources elsewhere
What does the knowledge include?
the knowledge would also include information on current adaptation, including measures and policies employed, and trends in vulnerability, on a sectoral and/or locational basis. in addition, it should provide a context of socio-economic and environmental conditions, trends, and policies
the first element of the knowledge base would be basic data about the nature, magnitude and distribution of climate risks by country and sub-national units (including both climate change and current variability and extremes). this information could be structured as follows: level 1: global: at-a-glace information on vulnerabilities and changes/trends (regions and sectors) level 2: country by country (and/or regional) summaries of key information, organized for instance as general maps of vulnerabilities and changes/trends, plus lists of threatened sectors and locations/regions within the country. level 3: from both global and country-level: links to more comprehensive information sources elsewhere. wherever possible, the knowledge would also include information on current adaptation, including measures and policies employed, and trends in vulnerability, on a sectoral and/or locational basis. in addition, it should provide a context of socio-economic and environmental conditions, trends, and policies. the information could be at a macro or generic level and would be taken from existing sources, including databases on natural hazards and other global statistics (see box 3.1); policy documents such as national communications to the unfccc and national adaptation programmes of
Why or why not would US withdrawal from the Kyoto Protocol be a positive event?
the us withdrawal from the kyoto protocol induces serious environmental and economic problems, ranging from a deterioration of the environmental effectiveness of the protocol to the increase in russia's bargaining power
What is the first main reason which explains the difficulty for countries to sign an environmental agreement?
the first is the large economic and environmental asymmetries among world regions. these structural differences induce a difficulty to share the burden of emission reductions in a way that makes it convenient for most countries to sign the agreement
What is the second main reason which explains the difficulty for countries to sign an environmental agreement?
the second reason is the intrinsic instability of environmental negotiations: even in the absence of asymmetries, some countries may prefer to free-ride, i.e. to profit from the cleaner environment provided by signatory countries, without paying the costs (because environmental benefits are not excludable: climate change control is a global public good
therefore, the us withdrawal from the kyoto protocol induces serious environmental and economic problems, ranging from a deterioration of the environmental effectiveness of the protocol to the increase in russia's bargaining power. as a consequence, the need to involve the us again in the international efforts to combat climate change is strengthened. as shown by these recent events, broad participation on environmental issues is hard to achieve. this conclusion is also supported by theoretical findings. there are probably two main reasons which explain the difficulty for countries to sign an environmental agreement. the first is the large economic and environmental asymmetries among world regions. these structural differences induce a difficulty to share the burden of emission reductions in a way that makes it convenient for most countries to sign the agreement. the second reason is the intrinsic instability of environmental negotiations: even in the absence of asymmetries, some countries may prefer to free-ride, i.e. to profit from the cleaner environment provided by signatory countries, without paying the costs (because environmental benefits are not excludable: climate change control is a global public good).
when is the Climate warming unlikely to occur ?
climate warming is unlikely to occur consistently throughout winter
what are the Consequence of overwintering stress-tolerance mechanisms?
higher autumn and early winter temperatures may inhibit this acclimation response and increase mortality if more severe conditions occur later in winter
what does the Evidence from laboratory studies show ?
evidence from laboratory studies shows that diapausing individuals from a broad range of species are more cold tolerant following cold acclimation (denlinger, 1991
climate warming is unlikely to occur consistently throughout winter. the impact of intermittent warmer periods on the development of diapause stress tolerance is therefore an important consideration. for many insects, overwintering stress-tolerance mechanisms only reach their full potential upon exposure to cold conditions, e.g. ostrinia nubilalis (hubner) (grubor-lajsic et al., 1992) and pyrrhocoris apterus (l.) (tom c ala et al., 2006). consequently, higher autumn and early winter temperatures may inhibit this acclimation response and increase mortality if more severe conditions occur later in winter. even if chilling is not specifically required to induce stress-tolerance mechanisms, a change in the seasonal timing of diapause initiation under warmer conditions could also influence winter mortality. for example, in the obligate diapause of the spruce budworm c. fumiferana warmer conditions induce an early entry into diapause and a subsequently modified metabolic rate within diapause. this causes an early synthesis and utilisation of glycerol before the coldest part of winter, resulting in high winter mortality (han and bauce, 1998). similar, temperature-dependent metabolic shifts during diapause appear to be a common characteristic (adedokun and denlinger, 1985). evidence from laboratory studies shows that diapausing individuals from a broad range of species are more cold tolerant following cold acclimation (denlinger, 1991). to date, however, there are few detailed studies that have investigated how climate change may impact on the molecular mechanisms underpinning the diapause stress-tolerance phenotype (see also hayward et al., 2005).
What type of sewage systems is adopted in various countries?
in various countries a separate sewerage system is adopted, which separates storm water from sewage, both being transported by independent pipeline systems
Which design is taken into consideration for sewage systems?
the design of the wwtp has to take into consideration the corresponding fraction of rainwater that is allowed to enter the treatment works
In Warm climate countries,how the sewage system will be designed?
in countries with a warm climate, during the dry season, sewage flows slowly in these large diameter pipes, leading to long detention times which allow decomposition and generation of malodours
on-site sewerage in various countries a separate sewerage system is adopted, which separates storm water from sewage, both being transported by independent pipeline systems. in this case, in principle, storm water does not contribute to the wastewater treatment plant (wwtp). in other countries, however, a combined (unitary) sewerage system is adopted, which directs sewage and storm water together into the same system (see figure 2.1). in this case, the pipelines have a larger diameter, to transport not only the sewage flow, but mainly rainwater, and the design of the wwtp has to take into consideration the corresponding fraction of rainwater that is allowed to enter the treatment works. in countries with a warm climate, during the dry season, sewage flows slowly in these large diameter pipes, leading to long detention times which allow decomposition and generation of malodours. in this book, focus is given to the separate sewerage system analysing only the three components listed above. however, the principles for the design of a combined sewerage system, based on dry-weather flow, are the same.
What are the results of the analysis?
in this section, we first present the results from the main analysis, on the basis of the data set and methodology described in previous sections
What is model capability?
then, we evaluate the model's ability to capture the main features in a better constrained but more hypothetical world by fitting it to artificial data generated by three aogcms where the "true" underlying climate sensitivity is known. furthermore, we test the model's prediction performance and investigate the sensitivities in the main results to changes in the priors
What are the indirect effects?
we also investigate the effect of adding an extra component to the total radiative forcing to account for indirect cloud effects not included in the standard ipcc definition of radiative forcing
in this section, we first present the results from the main analysis, on the basis of the data set and methodology described in previous sections. then, we evaluate the model's ability to capture the main features in a better constrained but more hypothetical world by fitting it to artificial data generated by three aogcms where the "true" underlying climate sensitivity is known. furthermore, we test the model's prediction performance and investigate the sensitivities in the main results to changes in the priors. we also investigate the effect of adding an extra component to the total radiative forcing to account for indirect cloud effects not included in the standard ipcc definition of radiative forcing.
How was multicollinearity between variables evaluated?
multicollinearity between variables was evaluated using bivariate plots and correlation analyses before regression analyses in order to determine which variables should be retained
What were general linear models constructed in?
general linear models were constructed in sas
What variables were included in the model?
variables included in the model were: latitude, longitude, surface area, volume, maximum depth, mean depth, elevation, ph, total dissolved solid concentrations, water temperature measurement depth, sampling year, sampling date [julian date and (julian date)2to capture the seasonal dome shape of surface water temperature], mean annual air temperature, mean july
multicollinearity between variables was evaluated using bivariate plots and correlation analyses before regression analyses in order to determine which variables should be retained. general linear models were constructed in sas using proc glm to determine the relationships between maximum surface-water temperatures with lake morphology, physical habitat and water chemistry variables. this analysis will be referred to as model 1 and was based on a stepwise approach using forward selection. variables were required to be significant at p o 0.05 to enter and remain in the model. variables included in the model were: latitude, longitude, surface area, volume, maximum depth, mean depth, elevation, ph, total dissolved solid concentrations, water temperature measurement depth, sampling year, sampling date [julian date and (julian date)2to capture the seasonal dome shape of surface water temperature], mean annual air temperature, mean july
What is is already apparent as an advancement of spring phenology?
climate change is already apparent as an advancement of spring phenology
Why all components of food chains will not shift their phenology at the same rate?
the main reason is that the different components in a food chain will have different response mechanisms underlying the timing of their phenology and that apart from an overall change in temperature, there will also be a change in weather patterns (correlations between climatic variables, either in time or space
What was the expectation?
under undisturbed weather patterns different response mechanisms of components in the food chain will be selected so that they shift more or less to the same degree with varying spring conditions
climate change is already apparent as an advancement of spring phenology. we argued in this chapter, however, that there is no a priori reason to expect that all components of food chains will shift their phenology at the same rate. the main reason is that the different components in a food chain will have different response mechanisms underlying the timing of their phenology and that apart from an overall change in temperature, there will also be a change in weather patterns (correlations between climatic variables, either in time or space). we may expect that under undisturbed weather patterns different response mechanisms of components in the food chain will be selected so that they shift more or less to the same degree with varying spring conditions. however, this expectation will no longer hold under novel weather patterns, simply because the mechanisms have not been selected under these new environments.
What causes the water levels of Great Lakes to be projected to decline?
for the great lakes, water levels are projected to decline over the coming decades as a result of climate change (reference 8; see 'water resources' chapter
Apart from climate change, what other factor that alter the relative position of land and sea?
in addition to changes in climate, regional sea level changes are affected by geological processes of the earth's crust and mantle that alter the relative position of land and sea
What are the factors that influence the sensitivity of Canada's coasts to sea level rise?
sensitivity is influenced by a variety of factors, including the geological characteristics of the shoreline (e.g., rock type, relief, coastal landforms) and ocean processes (e.g., tidal range, wave height). whether the coastline is emerging or submerging at present is also extremely important in determining sensitivity to future climate changes
water level changes along the shores of large lakes would relate to changes in regional precipitation and evaporation. for the great lakes, water levels are projected to decline over the coming decades as a result of climate change (reference 8; see 'water resources' chapter). although there is strong scientific agreement that mean global sea level will continue to rise throughout and beyond the present century, there remains uncertainty regarding the magnitude of this change. using a range of emission scenarios, the ipcc projects that global average sea level will rise between 9 and 88 centimetres in the period 1990 to 2100.(7)this large range reflects both the output of future temperature scenarios and gaps in our knowledge of ocean and hydrological processes.(7)it is also important to recognize that sea level rise will continue, and perhaps accelerate, in the following century due to the lag time between atmospheric temperature increases and ocean heating and glacier melting. from an impacts and adaptation perspective, it is local changes in relative sea level that are important, and these can differ significantly from global changes. in addition to changes in climate, regional sea level changes are affected by geological processes of the earth's crust and mantle that alter the relative position of land and sea. changes in currents, upwelling, tidal range and other oceanic processes also influence relative sea level at the local level. for significant parts of canada's arctic coasts, sea level is currently falling in response to geological processes, whereas sea level is currently rising in other areas, including much of the atlantic and beaufort sea coasts.(9)the total amount of sea level change experienced at a particular location is a combination of all of these factors. hence, not all areas of the country will experience the same rate of future sea level change. an initial assessment of the sensitivity of canada's coasts to sea level rise was presented by shaw et al.,(10)who concluded that more than 7 000 kilometres of coastline are highly sensitive, including much of the maritime provinces, a large part of the beaufort sea coast and the fraser delta region of british columbia (figure 1). sensitivity is influenced by a variety of factors, including the geological characteristics of the shoreline (e.g., rock type, relief, coastal landforms) and ocean processes (e.g., tidal range, wave height). whether the coastline is emerging or submerging at present is also extremely important in determining sensitivity to future climate changes.
Is it possible that atmospheric mineral dust is involved in cloud formation?
it is also possible that atmospheric mineral dust is involved in the formation of clouds; however, to this point, there is no convincing evidence that mineral particles are a significant source of cloud condensation nuclei z duce, 1995
Is data on the relationships between dust, clouds and precipitation limited?
data on the relationships between dust, clouds and precipitation are extremely limited, however, and more research is needed for understanding these dust-climate connections
Where are mineral aerosol, tropospheric chemistry and biogeochemical cycles Atmospheric dust originated?
mineral aerosol, tropospheric chemistry and biogeochemical cycles atmospheric dust typically originates in arid and semiarid lands far from heavily polluted regions; however, as the dust plumes travel over more populated regions, chemical reactions with other atmospheric constituents can modify the physical, chemical and optical properties of the dust particles
z atmospheric dynamics miller and tegen, 1998 other indirect effects of aerosols on climate can occur through the alteration of evaporation r precipitation cycles, which can be another consequence of z the particles' radiative effects coakley and cess, 1985; miller and tegen, 1998 it is also possible that atmospheric mineral dust is involved in the formation of clouds; however, to this point, there is no convincing evidence that mineral particles are a significant source of cloud condensation nuclei z duce, 1995 data on the relationships between dust, clouds and precipitation are extremely limited, however, and more research is needed for understanding these dust-climate connections. more complex indirect effects of dust on climate can result from the dust's involvement in the biogeochemical cycles of other substances with links to climate, and these are discussed in the following section. 5. mineral aerosol, tropospheric chemistry and biogeochemical cycles atmospheric dust typically originates in arid and semiarid lands far from heavily polluted regions; however, as the dust plumes travel over more populated regions, chemical reactions with other atmospheric constituents can modify the physical, chemical and optical properties of the dust particles. in addition, processes occurring in clouds during transport can lead to internal mixtures of aerosols of z different types andreae et al., 1986; anderson et al., 1996 as a result of chemical reactions and mixing, dust particles that have been transported long distances can have substantially different radiative properties compared with the eolian materials found closer to the dust sources. until recently, the chemical reactivity of mineral aerosol particles was given little attention, but it is not recognized that chemical reactions on dust particles could conceivably, albeit indirectly, affect the behavior of other atmospheric constituents with roles as climate forcing agents. there have been few laboratory studies that have directly focused on this issue, but a model simulation by dentener et al. z 1996 has provided a first indication of the importance of chemical reactions involving dust particles on a large scale. that study forms the basis of much of the remaining discussion; however, as noted above, for radiative forcing, the uncertainties in the chemical reactions of dust are large. 5.1. reactions with oxidants one of the ways in which chemical reactions involving mineral aerosol particles could affect large-scale atmospheric processes is through their z effects on oxidant cycles fig. 5 changes in the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere are one of the main concerns of atmospheric chemists today, largely
Who is the blogger who argues that Democrats increasingly believe the environment is improving based on Obama's election?
nate silver
What percentage of Americans think the environment is getting better?
41
The election of which President seems to have shifted Americans' attitudes about whether or not the state of the environment is imrproving?
president barack obama
interestingly, recent polling may have found evidence of a mass single action bias--the election of president barack obama seems to have shifted americans' attitudes about whether or not the state of the environment is improving. nate silver, of the polling blog fivethirtyeight.com, argues that democrats increasingly believe the environment is improving simply based on obama's election, whereas the number of republicans who say the environment is improving has remained about the same since 2008. "because of barack obama's election," silver wrote, "many americans assume that the environment is getting better, whether or not it actually is." silver cited a gallup poll from february 2009 that showed 41 percent of americans think the environment is getting better, compared to just 26 percent in 2008. he argued that such perceptions could prove detrimental to legislative efforts to address global climate change and other environmental problems.4\\x18
Which is a crucial step in the initial screening process?
verification using independent data is a crucial step as it represents a stringent assessment of the derived nested reconstruction independent of the initial screening process
What denotes RE and CE values greater than zero?
re and ce values greater than zero denote some statistical skill in that the reconstructed values over the verification periods are better estimates of climate than using either the instrumental mean of the calibration (for re) or verification (for ce) periods (for detail on these statistics, see cook et al. 1994; wilson et al ., 2006
What is also calculated to derive a 2 s confidence interval for each predicted annual value?
the root mean square error was also calculated over the verification period to derive a 2 s confidence interval for each predicted annual value
verification using independent data is a crucial step as it represents a stringent assessment of the derived nested reconstruction independent of the initial screening process. for model validation using cpr, pcr and regem, we used the coefficient of determination r2), reduction of error (re) and coefficient of efficiency (ce) statistics. re and ce values greater than zero denote some statistical skill in that the reconstructed values over the verification periods are better estimates of climate than using either the instrumental mean of the calibration (for re) or verification (for ce) periods (for detail on these statistics, see cook et al. 1994; wilson et al ., 2006). the root mean square error was also calculated over the verification period to derive a 2 s confidence interval for each predicted annual value. the 2 s error bars were also adjusted (inflated), to account for the decrease in explained variance in each nest, using the same scaling function utilised to stabilise the variance of the nested series.
Skill scores were calculated based on what?
the match of simulated and observed empirical probability density functions
The evaluation for different variables, seasons and regions showed what?
some models were better/worse than others in an overall sense
What did a number of sensitivity tests showed?
weights were highly sensitive to the choice of skill score metric and data sets involved in the comparison
we evaluated daily and monthly statistics of maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation in an ensemble of 16 regional climate models (rcms) forced by boundary conditions from reanalysis data for 1961-1990. a high-resolution gridded observational data set for land areas in europe was used. skill scores were calculated based on the match of simulated and observed empirical probability density functions. the evaluation for different variables, seasons and regions showed that some models were better/worse than others in an overall sense. it also showed that no model that was best/worst in all variables, seasons or regions. biases in daily precipitation were most pronounced in the wettest part of the probability distribution where the rcms tended to overestimate precipitation compared to observations. we also applied the skill scores as weights used to calculate weighted ensemble means of the variables. we found that weighted ensemble means were slightly better in comparison to observations than corresponding unweighted ensemble means for most seasons, regions and variables. a number of sensitivity tests showed that the weights were highly sensitive to the choice of skill score metric and data sets involved in the comparison. key words: regional climate models * probability distributions * skill score metrics * weighted ensemble * europe
What are two of the four most dominant images?
melting ice and non-human nature
What percent of all erspondents held two of the four most dominant images?
34
Most of the references to what were relatively generic in nature and likely indicated associations with the word "warming" in "global warming"?
heat
thus, two of the four most dominant images (melting ice and non-human nature), held by 34% of all respondents, referred to impacts on places or natural ecosystems distant from the everyday experience of most americans. most of the references to "heat" were relatively generic in nature and likely indicated associations with the word "warming" in "global warming." finally, 11% of americans provided associations to the separate environmental issue of stratospheric ozone depletion, indicating that a substantial proportion of americans continue to confuse and conflate these two issues (see also bostrom and lashof, this volume). thus, 61% of americans provided associations to impacts geographically and psychologically distant, generic increases in temperature, or to a different environmental problem. these results help explain the paradox in public risk perceptions, in which americans appear concerned about climate change, but do not consider it a high priority relative to other national or environmental issues. this study found that, in aggregate, americans perceive climate change as a moderate risk, but think the impacts will mostly affect people and places that 7 7
What program did the government launch in 2003?
in 2003 the government launched its ' sustainable communities ' plan, accelerating the provision of housing, largely in new green-field developments in areas like the thames gateway, london - stansted - cambridge corridor, ashford, and milton keynes - south midlands, many of which are on flood plains
What are the negative consequences of this construction?
during the 2007 floods the sewage systems in many parts of these cities overflowed into the streets, filling them with toxic swilling raw sewage because the drainage infrastructure was not sufficiently large to pump it away quickly enough
in 2003 the government launched its ' sustainable communities ' plan, accelerating the provision of housing, largely in new green-field developments in areas like the thames gateway, london - stansted - cambridge corridor, ashford, and milton keynes - south midlands, many of which are on flood plains. are such politicians really blind to the risks they are creating with such developments? the environment agency, our supposed bastion against the onslaught of vested interests and poor political judgement, appears to be developing stronger legal teeth. in the case of the administrative court in r (environment agency) v tonbridge malling district council the council's decision to allow sheltered housing to be built on a flood plain was struck down as failing to take policy guidance sufficiently into account. the case bloor v swindon borough council also considered the relevance of flood plain policy to overall development planning policy, and in 2007 the environment agency won in the high court against a local council that wanted to put a new development for 63 sheltered housing apartments on the flood plain on a site that had been recently severely affected by flooding. the council was shown not to have followed the sequential test laid down under planning policy guidance. in cities like leeds, sheffield and manchester, where planners have encouraged new high-rise residential blocks on flood plains, it may be only a matter of time before a class action law suit is filed by the tenants who can no longer get insurance for their homes. victims of flooding could use the legal precedent set by ryeford homes v sevenoaks district council where a claim was made for damages against the planning authority in respect of flooding caused by allowing overdevelopment, implying that it should be possible to take a council or a developer of the homes to court for damage. 10 planners lack training in the numerical understanding of infrastructural system capacity limits for new developments and in the basics of how buildings work. time and time again areas of cities that cannot cope with extreme events such as urban flooding are given permission for more and more development, as we have seen in leeds, sheffield, coventry and blackburn. during the 2007 floods the sewage systems in many parts of these cities overflowed into the streets, filling them with toxic swilling raw sewage because the drainage infrastructure was not sufficiently large to pump it away quickly enough. yet at the point of recommending whether a new development would be given planning permission, these issues were not taken into account. neither were the capacities of the public transport systems, school places, hospital bed availability, electricity generating capacity or water availability of the city taken into account. in the current planning process, there is generally no detailed statement on the thermal or environmental performance of a proposed building given to councillors for consideration before it is granted planning permission. so the planning officer who decides whether to promote the building, or a planning council member who will vote on it, may have no idea of the potential environmental impacts of the building on greenhouse gas emissions or water usage in the building. planning officers and the elected councillors will judge a building by what it looks like, and what image of their own area or city they would like to promote. committees can give approval for fashionable, unshaded, all glass and steel buildings with huge air conditioning systems, and remain blissfully ignorant of the task they have passed on, in the process, to the building control officer to try to conform to uk building regulations. councils will promote the use of thin, tight, shiny, poorly performing cladding systems over robust traditional construction as a matter of course because they want their city to look ' modern ' regardless of the performance implications. if the government intends to meet the reductions targets of the eu directive it is difficult to see how this will be achieved without key decision-making roles, like planners, councillors or the environment agency, being better educated in the issues and having more statutory teeth. more free ebooks http://fast-file.blogspot.com
What are the projections for global surface air temperature?
mean global surface air temperature is projected to increase by 1.4deg to 5.8degc by 2100 relative to 1990, with the magnitude of the increase varying both spatially and temporally
What regions are predicted to warm more?
continental regions and higher latitudes are projected to warm more than coastal regions and the tropics
What seasons is predicted to warm more?
nighttime minimum temperatures are expected to increase more than daytime maximum temperatures, and winter temperatures are expected to increase more than summer temperatures
terrestrial systems. the rate of climate change resulting from increased greenhouse gases and changes in land and water use is expected to be rapid on an evolutionary time scale 16 ). the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) 24 provides projections for terrestrial ecosystems. mean global surface air temperature is projected to increase by 1.4deg to 5.8degc by 2100 relative to 1990, with the magnitude of the increase varying both spatially and temporally. continental regions and higher latitudes are projected to warm more than coastal regions and the tropics. nighttime minimum temperatures are expected to increase more than daytime maximum temperatures, and winter temperatures are expected to increase more than summer temperatures. warming will alter other aspects of climate relevant to disease, particularly humidity and precipitation. some areas will experience more intense precipitation events and increased humidity while others have an increased risk of drought. generally, globally averaged water vapor pressure, evaporation, and precipitation are projected to increase 24 ). however, predicted changes in hydrologic variables are much less robust than changes in temperature, so we focus on the potential effects of temperature. marine systems. the direct components of predicted climate change affecting marine organisms over the next century are (i) temperature increase, (ii) sea level increase and subsequent changes in ocean circulation, and (iii) decrease in salinity 24 ). coastal ocean temperature increases are expected to be slightly lower than the ipcc projected increases for land, but still rise measurably. sea level is
What are regarded as the instruments able to correct gender inequalities?
social changes are generally regarded as instruments able to correct gender inequalities while improving, at the same time, women's lives
Which approach is considered to be one of the best approaches to correct gender inequalities?
gender analysis is considered one of the best approaches to reach this objective, promoting a shift from a special focus on women to the adoption of a broader gender approach, based on the relations between men and women
What kind of development work can be effective which does not take into account the relationships between people?
no development work can be effective which does not take into account the relationships between people. as the relationships between males and females form the basis of human society, the analysis of the implications of these relations must form the basis of development and relief interventions
many approaches have been suggested to exploit the synergies deriving from these potentials reducing vulnerabilities to adverse climate impacts. social changes are generally regarded as instruments able to correct gender inequalities while improving, at the same time, women's lives. gender analysis is considered one of the best approaches to reach this objective, promoting a shift from a special focus on women to the adoption of a broader gender approach, based on the relations between men and women. in particular, the "confusion between a gender-aware approach and women-only support can lead to a range of problems, such as the marginalisation of women's issues and inappropriate projects for women (...) no development work can be effective which does not take into account the relationships between people. as the relationships between males and females form the basis of human society, the analysis of the implications of these relations must form the basis of development and relief interventions" .67
What does most scientists and policy makers now acknowledge?
most scientists and policy makers now acknowledge that climate change will have far-reaching impacts on human society unless significant steps are taken to deal with it
What does the current climate change projections for India for the 2050s suggests?
current climate change projections for india for the 2050s suggest an increase in temperature of 2-4oc for the country's south and of more than 4oc for its northern region
What do climatologists predict?
climatologists also predict an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme events such as droughts, floods and cyclones
most scientists and policy makers now acknowledge that climate change will have far-reaching impacts on human society unless significant steps are taken to deal with it. current climate change projections for india for the 2050s suggest an increase in temperature of 2-4oc for the country's south and of more than 4oc for its northern region. while there is likely to be little change in the average amount of monsoon rainfall, the number of rainfall days are expected to decrease over a major part of the country. climatologists also predict an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme events such as droughts, floods and cyclones.
What is Radiation Forcing?
climate models reproduce the observed surface warming better than one would expect given the uncertainties in radiative forcing, climate sensitivity and ocean heat uptake, suggesting that different models show similar warming for different reasons. it is shown that while climate sensitivity and radiative forcing are indeed correlated across the latest ensemble of models, eliminating this correlation would not strongly change the uncertainty range of long-term temperature projections
What are the contradictions between global warming?
however, since most models do not incorporate the aerosol indirect effects, model agreement with observations may be partly spurious. the incorporation of more detailed aerosol effects in future models could lead to inconsistencies between simulated and observed past warming, unless the effects are small or compensated by additional forcings
What are the conditions in the sample observations?
it is argued that parameter correlations across models are neither unexpected nor problematic if the models are interpreted as conditional on observations. citation: knutti, r. (2008), why are climate models reproducing the observed global surface warming so well?, geophys. res. lett. 35 l18704, doi:10.1029/ 2008gl034932
climate models reproduce the observed surface warming better than one would expect given the uncertainties in radiative forcing, climate sensitivity and ocean heat uptake, suggesting that different models show similar warming for different reasons. it is shown that while climate sensitivity and radiative forcing are indeed correlated across the latest ensemble of models, eliminating this correlation would not strongly change the uncertainty range of long-term temperature projections. however, since most models do not incorporate the aerosol indirect effects, model agreement with observations may be partly spurious. the incorporation of more detailed aerosol effects in future models could lead to inconsistencies between simulated and observed past warming, unless the effects are small or compensated by additional forcings. it is argued that parameter correlations across models are neither unexpected nor problematic if the models are interpreted as conditional on observations. citation: knutti, r. (2008), why are climate models reproducing the observed global surface warming so well?, geophys. res. lett. 35 l18704, doi:10.1029/ 2008gl034932.
What is the analysis findings?
our analysis had a number of sources of uncertainty
What are some examples for the differential biases?
fire radiative power displays a high degree of daily variability, may be highest during peak burning and fire spread which occurs after the terra and aqua satellites' overpass102,103, and can be influenced by residual burning after a fire front has passed38
NDVI shows vulnerablities what are some examples of different contaminations?
clouds, atmospheric moisture, and variability in soil reflectance
uncertainties and biases our analysis had a number of sources of uncertainty. although there was no reason to our analysis had a number of sources of uncertainty. although there was no reason to suspect differential biases over boreal north america versus eurasia in the satellite products we used, these datasets have well-documented limitations. for example, fire radiative power displays a high degree of daily variability, may be highest during peak burning and fire spread which occurs after the terra and aqua satellites' overpass102,103, and can be influenced by residual burning after a fire front has passed38. it remains somewhat unclear what physical characteristics are being measured by dnbr, and its effectiveness at mapping fire severity has been reported with mixed success25,45. ndvi is particularly vulnerable to contamination from clouds, atmospheric moisture, and variability in soil reflectance27,104. both dnbr and ndvi correlate saturate with properties that relate to fire severity, although, if anything, this suggests our estimates of continental differences are conservative for these metrics. the modis tree cover product has not been thoroughly tested on burned sites or in boreal forests, and the modis
Although the frequency distributions across the ensemble of models may be valuable information for model development, what is also true?
there is no reason to expect these distributions to relate to the probability of real-world behaviour
What is the inverse of the parameter labelled 'ice fall rate in clouds'?
ice residence time in clouds
What are the ensembles of opportunity made up of?
state-of-the-art gcms
the frequency distributions across the ensemble of models may be valuable information for model development, but there is no reason to expect these distributions to relate to the probability of real-world behaviour. one might (or might not) argue for such a relation if the models were empirically adequate, but given nonlinear models with large systematic errors under current conditions, no connection has been even remotely established for relating the distribution of model states under altered conditions to decision-relevant probability distributions. the ensembles of opportunity are made up of state-of-the-art gcms the results of which are inter-dependent due to the substantial collaborations between modelling centres, the publication of results in the literature, understanding based on the same text books and, in particular, the similarities of modern computer hardware across research centres (as all groups face similar constraints due to the limits of technology: for example, the upper bound on resolution is similar across models with no one running a global cloud resolving model at a resolution of a fraction of a kilometre on 100-year time scales). this reduces the confidence inspired by the agreement of results across a given generation of climate models, while increasing the utility of their disagreements for understanding processes in each individual model. the shape of the frequency distribution of results in the perturbed parameter ensembles figure 2 is governed by the characteristics of the base model and the choice of parameter values explored; at large spatial scales we might expect substantial parametric redundancy and thus a peak in the frequency distribution close to the behaviour of the base model stainforth et al 2005 ). even were we to achieve the impossible and have access to a comprehensive exploration of uncertainty in parameter space, the shape of various distributions extracted would reflect model constructs with no obvious relationship to the probability of real-world behaviour. indeed, even the structure of parameter space is a subjective choice and has a first-order effect rougier et al submitted ). physically, we can equally well use a parameter labelled 'ice fall rate in clouds' or its inverse ('ice residence time in clouds') and achieve identical simulations. sampling uniform distributions under each of the two different labels however, yields completely different results. under either choice of parameter label, the parameter is still merely a model parameter, which has at best a tenuous relation to the empirically well-defined velocity of any actual piece of ice smith 2006 ). it is unclear if the uncertainty in our empirical measurements has any parallel at all in terms of the plausible values of model parameter namesakes.
How and when was the degrading trend in vegetation reversed?
the degrading trend in vegetation was reversed between 2000 and 2006 due to decreased stocking rates, which was attributable to several new land use policies geared toward grassland conservation and restoration
How many times were the residual trends analyzed?
we analyzed the residual trends for three time periods based on major changes in land use policy and institutional arrangements in the study region
What has the study indicated about the grassland vegetation in the Xilingol region of Inner Mongolia?
our study indicates that the grassland vegetation in the xilingol region of inner mongolia deteriorated from the early 1980s to 2000 primarily because of increased livestock grazing which was associated with the implementation of the hprs
scale effects in terms of pixel size and time duration the spatial and temporal scales of analysis in terms of grain and extent often affect the results of spatial analysis (jelinski and wu 1996 wu 2004 2007 ). this is also the case with the restrend method. first, the spatial resolution of the remote sensing data used in our study was determined primarily by the availability of the gimms dataset. although we do not expect that our major results on the spatiotemporal pattern of vegetation change will be qualitatively altered, using finer-resolution data may improve the accuracy of the analysis and provide more explanatory power. because too coarse a resolution may omit important details while too fine a resolution may result in noises overwhelming signals, future studies are needed to explore the ''optical'' pixel or patch size in the application of the restrend analysis. second, the results of the restrend method vary with the time scale (duration) used for computing the ndvi-rainfall regression and the trends of its residuals. for example, the proportions of pixels with statistically significant regression models and residual trends both change with scale in time. while there were a number of ways to select time scales in this study, we chose the entire time series for the ndvirainfall regression to produce an ecologically sensible and statistically robust relationship. also, we analyzed the residual trends for three time periods based on major changes in land use policy and institutional arrangements in the study region. in general, the selection of time scale should not be arbitrary; instead, it should be based on research objectives and patterns in the time series of data on vegetation, rainfall, land use, and land use policy. conclusions our study indicates that the grassland vegetation in the xilingol region of inner mongolia deteriorated from the early 1980s to 2000 primarily because of increased livestock grazing which was associated with the implementation of the hprs. this land use policy by the chinese government has produced economically and environmentally positive results in agricultural regions, but not in the grazing lands of inner mongolia. the degrading trend in vegetation was reversed between 2000 and 2006 due to decreased stocking rates, which was attributable to several new land use policies geared toward grassland conservation and restoration. our results suggest that the degraded grassland vegetation in the xilingol region can recover if the stocking rate is kept at a moderate level, and this can be done effectively through appropriate land use policies and institutional arrangements. the restrend method provides an effective tool to distinguish between the effects of climatic factors and human activities on vegetation changes when used properly. in particular, the issues of spatial heterogeneity and scale should be explicitly considered in the application of the method.
What is the affect of the paragraph?
it certainly appears that fear is employed as a communications tool that will break through the routine of everyday life and catch the viewer's attention. whether this is an effective method for communicating climate change, however, is discussed forthwith
Whats the present issue?
there is little literature dedicated to the impact of fear-inducing representations of climate change on people's senses of engagement with the issue
Does the literature Exist?
the literature that does exist suggests that using fearful representations of climate change may be counterproductive (e.g., moser dilling, 2004), but this has not been tested empirically
it certainly appears that fear is employed as a communications tool that will break through the routine of everyday life and catch the viewer's attention. whether this is an effective method for communicating climate change, however, is discussed forthwith. there is little literature dedicated to the impact of fear-inducing representations of climate change on people's senses of engagement with the issue. the literature that does exist suggests that using fearful representations of climate change may be counterproductive (e.g., moser dilling, 2004), but this has not been tested empirically. in this article we aim to explore and clarify this assertion in the context of visual and iconic representations of climate change and their impacts on public engagement. icons are used in this context to refer to tangible entities that will be affected by climate change. they are more than simply an image, narrative, or probability describing the entity that is being represented (e.g., an image of a swimming polar bear is not an icon; it is the polar bear entity itself that is the icon). we present a synthesis of the results from two empirical pieces of research investigating the role of different types of visual and iconic representations in engaging individuals with climate change, specifically extracting the results pertaining to the use and role of fear in climate communication approaches. although both projects were carried out in the united kingdom, the key messages and policy recommendations have relevance for all with an interest in engaging individuals with the issue of climate change.
What is significant outbreak periods in British Columbia ?
the combined forest insect survey and dendrochronological records indicate that there have been four significant outbreak periods in british columbia during the last 120 years and that outbreaks may recur in some areas as surviving trees in the residual stand grow to susceptible size
What does the record suggest?
the records also suggest that outbreak size has been increasing over time. however, infestations have not yet occurred throughout the full range of the beetle's primary host--lodgepole pine (see fig. 1
Explain current latitudinal and elevational range of mountain pine beetle?
despite its significant distribution, the current latitudinal and elevational range of mountain pine beetle in western canada is not restricted by the availability of suitable host trees--lodgepole pine extends north into the southern yukon and northwest territories, and east across much of alberta, beyond the contemporary range of mountain pine beetle
the combined forest insect survey and dendrochronological records indicate that there have been four significant outbreak periods in british columbia during the last 120 years and that outbreaks may recur in some areas as surviving trees in the residual stand grow to susceptible size. the records also suggest that outbreak size has been increasing over time. however, infestations have not yet occurred throughout the full range of the beetle's primary host--lodgepole pine (see fig. 1). despite its significant distribution, the current latitudinal and elevational range of mountain pine beetle in western canada is not restricted by the availability of suitable host trees--lodgepole pine extends north into the southern yukon and northwest territories, and east across much of alberta, beyond the contemporary range of mountain pine beetle.
What does the statistical analysis show?
statistical analysis. in all our analysis we take the same non-parametric approach to establish statistical significance at the two-sided 95% level. in this approach, we randomly sub-sample elements from the entire population and take averages
How is the distribution of results explained?
the number of elements selected equals the number included in the quantity to be tested. we repeat this procedure 10,000 times, leading to a distribution of outcomes that is the result of pure chance. the upper and lower 2.5 percentiles of this distribution are our empirically determined confidence limits
statistical analysis. in all our analysis we take the same non-parametric approach to establish statistical significance at the two-sided 95% level. in this approach, we randomly sub-sample elements from the entire population and take averages. the number of elements selected equals the number included in the quantity to be tested. we repeat this procedure 10,000 times, leading to a distribution of outcomes that is the result of pure chance. the upper and lower 2.5 percentiles of this distribution are our empirically determined confidence limits. event selection. the events selected for the composites shown in figs 4 and 5b,c are based on the dates on which the smoothed annual november-march means of the nam at 10 hpa (gaussian filter, s ~ 2 years) exceed a value of +- 1; selected events are separated by at least 30 years. detrending. to account for long-term trends we first remove from all quantities a low-pass filtered (101-year running means) version of the data. daily atmospheric quantities are filtered by removing a slowly varying trend climatology, following a procedure that accounts for seasonality of trends31, except that a running mean filter of 101 years is applied.
What are the reason behind the climate change?
the main reason is that the impact of climate change will vary with levels of economic development and the political capacity of a country, with levels and types of climatic conditions (more/ less rain, higher/lower temperature, more/less frequent and/or intense storms, etc
Is the climate is affecting on economic growth, explain?
the existing literature provides some evidence that climatic changes affect economic output (gdp), for example by reducing agricultural yields when temperature rises (precipitation falls) (e.g. mendelsohn et al., 1998; mendelsohn, dinar williams, 2006; nordhaus boyer, 2000; tol, 2002; deschenes greenstone, 2007; barrios, bertinelli strobl, 2010). such evidence also suggests that climatic changes should affect economic growth
Explain the role of capital investment in economic growth?
in addition, as long as countries spend some resources adapting to climatic changes, they incur opportunity costs in terms of not spending these resources on r&d and capital investment. this has negative effects on economic growth
climate and weather can impact on many human activities, from leisure to agriculture to industrial production. however, estimating the consequences of climate change for economic growth is difficult. the main reason is that the impact of climate change will vary with levels of economic development and the political capacity of a country, with levels and types of climatic conditions (more/ less rain, higher/lower temperature, more/less frequent and/or intense storms, etc.). in other words, although economic and political actors respond to climatic conditions by developing and implementing adaptation strategies, their ability to do so depends critically on institutional, economic, and technological capabilities. the existing literature provides some evidence that climatic changes affect economic output (gdp), for example by reducing agricultural yields when temperature rises (precipitation falls) (e.g. mendelsohn et al., 1998; mendelsohn, dinar williams, 2006; nordhaus boyer, 2000; tol, 2002; deschenes greenstone, 2007; barrios, bertinelli strobl, 2010). such evidence also suggests that climatic changes should affect economic growth. one can even suspect that the effect on economic growth is more distinct: if climatic changes affected only the level of economic output, we would observe mostly a short-term effect. this should be the case as for example a rise in temperature (decrease in precipitation) would be compensated by subsequent temperature decreases (precipitation increases) - due, for example, to stringent abatement of emissions - which should then return the gdp to its previous level. but this is not the case if climatic changes affect economic growth. the reasons are the following. first, economic growth will be lower even if gdp returns to its previous level because of forgone consumption and investment due to lower income during the period of higher temperature (lower precipitation). in addition, as long as countries spend some resources adapting to climatic changes, they incur opportunity costs in terms of not spending these resources on r&d and capital investment. this has negative effects on economic growth. moreover, given the short time series used in existing research on the effects of climate on economic
What is the current knowledge about the impacts of climate change on plankton stoichiometry?
current knowledge about the impacts of climate change on plankton stoichiometry is still limited. although we have argued that climate change is likely to increase the carbon:nutrient stoichiometry of plankton communities, several processes may impede or completely reverse this pattern
What can prevent or suppress stratification?
storms can prevent or suppress stratification, and the resultant vertical mixing of the water column may enhance the flux of nutrients from deeper waters into surface layers
climate change can have many impacts on aquatic ecosystems. it may favor the development of harmful algal blooms (paerl and huisman 2008), cause ocean acidification (caldeira and wickett 2003), and affect the biogeographical distribution of many species (hays et al 2005). current knowledge about the impacts of climate change on plankton stoichiometry is still limited. although we have argued that climate change is likely to increase the carbon:nutrient stoichiometry of plankton communities, several processes may impede or completely reverse this pattern. for instance, as a result of global warming, air temperatures are increasing to a greater extent than ocean water temperatures, causing more frequent storms (solomon et al. 2007). storms can prevent or suppress stratification, and the resultant vertical mixing of the water column may enhance the flux of nutrients from deeper waters into surface layers. furthermore, stoichiometric effects of climate change may be mitigated or even counteracted by eutrophication, through anthropogenic nitrogen and phosphorus loading. these processes provide more nutrients for phytoplankton growth, especially near the more densely human populated regions of our planet, and may thereby lead to local or regional trends in plankton stoichiometry that deviate from our expected pattern. moreover, the response of species, communities, and ecosystems to changing environmental conditions can be highly complex, with many non-linear interactions and surprising feedbacks (scheffer et al 2001; beninca et al 2008). many planktonic organisms are also quite flexible in their stoichiometry, and have considerable potential for
Who is encouraging members against use of air conditioning?
the royal institute of british architects (riba
What percentage of CO2 should be reduced according to the government's "White Paper" on energy?
60% co 2 emissions reduction by 2050
What are the RIBA Gold Medals designed for?
he riba gold medals for design typically go to energy-profligate, highly serviced buildings without so much as a nod to the challenge of making them low impact in reality as well
we saw in chapter 11 how no act of governance has been successful in controlling the onwards march of poor modern building performance, neither market forces nor professional guidance nor regulations. the royal institute of british architects (riba) may urge its members against the unnecessary use of air conditioning and the chartered institute of building service engineers (cibse) includes in its code of professional conduct the admonition to ' avoid the use of refrigeration where natural and mechanical ventilation is a feasible alternative ' but both professions continue to move indiscriminately to almost universal use of air conditioning in their larger buildings. the riba gold medals for design typically go to energy-profligate, highly serviced buildings without so much as a nod to the challenge of making them low impact in reality as well. however it is hoped that other new initiatives will prove more successful. many local councils recognize that they have to play a larger part in tackling climate change. the local government association has teamed up with the energy saving trust to fund a senior project officer to work at the greater london authority on sustainable energy and climate change, and to update the association's policy on such matters, in light of climate change developments and the government's white paper on energy that required a 60% co 2 emissions reduction by 2050. 9 it may well be that people will come to recognize the urgency of acting promptly and move on from the tenets of corporate social responsibility that were prevalent in the boom years when many corporations espoused the wisdom of ' doing well by doing good ' 10 some large corporations were more free ebooks http://fast-file.blogspot.com
What table 1 present?
table 1 presents an overview of the indicators used to understand the distribution rules implicit in policies and each policy's definition of the problem of climate change
What table2  provide?
table 2 provides a summary of the proposals examined according to these indicators
How many policies propose significantly different overarching structures or new institutions?
only seven policies
we reviewed the available policy proposals and selected 32 for a more detailed analysis. we selected these proposals both to span the widest range of designs and based on their frequent citation within the climate policy literature, including works that have collected policy architectures (ringius and torvanger, 2002; aldy et al., 2003; bodansky et al., 2004). emerging from the discussions in the previous two sections, table 1 presents an overview of the indicators used to understand the distribution rules implicit in policies and each policy's definition of the problem of climate change. table 2 provides a summary of the proposals examined according to these indicators. two important principles are not directly observed in these tables. the first is causal responsibility. because every policy includes this either through carbon taxes, cap-and-trade mechanisms or technological development investment,6 it cannot be used to detect variation across policies, and so has been omitted. the second key principle identified in the ethics literature but missing from these tables is procedural justice. this is because formal mechanisms to facilitate procedural justice have been missing from most concrete policy proposals. partial exceptions to this are concerns about the need for sub-national consideration and representation in decision making, and arguments about the ideal extent of climate policy, as discussed earlier. the lack of explicit focus may be due to assumptions that the overarching unfccc structure sufficiently accommodates procedural justice. only seven policies propose significantly different overarching structures or new institutions, which suggests that - for the majority - more minor alterations within these policies is acceptable. it is, however, difficult to differentiate, based only on formal proposals, the extent of assumptions about procedural justice.
what are the type of studies on shifts in warming regions?
studies on these shifts fall mainly into two types: (a) those that infer large-scale range shifts from small-scale observations across sections of a range boundary (with the total study area often determined by a political boundary such as state, province, or country lines) and (b) those that infer range shifts from changes in species' composition (abundances) in a local community
what are the Expected distributional shifts in warming regions?
expected distributional shifts in warming regions are poleward and upward range shifts
what is the study area determined by ?
the total study area often determined by a political boundary such as state, province, or country lines
expected distributional shifts in warming regions are poleward and upward range shifts. studies on these shifts fall mainly into two types: (a) those that infer large-scale range shifts from small-scale observations across sections of a range boundary (with the total study area often determined by a political boundary such as state, province, or country lines) and (b) those that infer range shifts from changes in species' composition (abundances) in a local community. studies encompassing the entire range of a species, or at least the northern and southern (or lower and upper) extremes, are few and have been concentrated on amphibians (pounds et al. 1999, 2006), a mammal (beever et al. 2003), and butterflies (parmesan 1996, parmesan et al. 1999). the paucity of whole-range studies likely stems from the difficulties of gathering data on the scale of a species' range-often covering much of a continent.
What is the method used for determining statistical significance?
prior to presenting the results we first describe the method used for determining statistical significance. the climate shows a high degree of natural variability. this makes it difficult to detect climate change since the signal needs to exceed the noise level caused by the natural variability. to do this we apply the method described by raisanen et al (2003) on annual or seasonal mean differences between a certain time period and the control period. in short this means that we use a t -test, in which the error variance of the simulated change has been adjusted for serial correlation as outlined below
What does the t-test determine?
the test is used to determine if the null hypothesis "there is no difference between the means of the two periods" can be rejected or not
in this section the simulated climate change signals, defined as differences in climate between 30-year periods and the control period (1961-1990) are described. we present results in the form of climate change maps for four 30-year periods covering the period 1981-2100. the first of these periods is partly overlapping the control period. in addition to showing climate change in the form of maps we show time series of area average changes for certain regions. these time series are compared to the control climate and in particular we address the question as to whether the difference between periods is statistically significant. prior to presenting the results we first describe the method used for determining statistical significance. the climate shows a high degree of natural variability. this makes it difficult to detect climate change since the signal needs to exceed the noise level caused by the natural variability. to do this we apply the method described by raisanen et al (2003) on annual or seasonal mean differences between a certain time period and the control period. in short this means that we use a t -test, in which the error variance of the simulated change has been adjusted for serial correlation as outlined below. the test is used to determine if the null hypothesis "there is no difference between the means of the two periods" can be rejected or not. the t statistics can be calculated as
What great role will the human response and our ability to adapt play?
human response and our capacity to adapt will play a large role in determining the vulnerability of the coastal zone to climate change
What does the discussion of potential adaptation options highlight?
the discussion of potential adaptation options highlights the complexity of issues facing resource managers and communities in this unique setting
What does the "Fisheries" chapter of this report discuss?
the wide range of biological and ecological concerns that climate change could present for the coastal zone are discussed primarily in the 'fisheries' chapter of this report
human response and our capacity to adapt will play a large role in determining the vulnerability of the coastal zone to climate change. this chapter examines the potential impacts of climate change on canada's marine and great lakes coastal regions, focusing primarily on issues related to infrastructure and communities. the discussion of potential adaptation options highlights the complexity of issues facing resource managers and communities in this unique setting. reflecting the literature available, emphasis is placed on physical impacts, while recognizing the need for increased research on the potential social and economic impacts of climate change. the wide range of biological and ecological concerns that climate change could present for the coastal zone are discussed primarily in the 'fisheries' chapter of this report.
What is represents the control climate scenario?
the control climate scenario represents the simulated baseline weather conditions
What has  been simulated using each of the river basins?
each of the river basins has been simulated using the swat model
What are the additional sub-components of the water balance?
many additional sub-components of the total water balance such as surface runoff, interflow, subsurface runoff, groundwater recharge, etc., are also available as part of the detailed output
the control climate scenario represents the simulated baseline weather conditions (1981-2000). each of the river basins has been simulated using the swat model by using this generated daily weather data (hadrm2) of control climate scenario. although the swat model does not require elaborate calibration, yet, in the present case, any calibration was not meaningful since the simulated weather data has been used for the control period whereas the historical recorded runoff with which the model is usually calibrated is the response to the actually observed weather conditions. therefore, these two series are not comparable at short time intervals. however, the swat model has been used on various indian catchments of varied sizes and it has been experienced that the model performs very well without much calibration7. furthermore, in the present exercise every river basin has been treated as a virgin area without any manmade change incorporated (since very data intensive). this was done because the intent of the study was to quantify the impact of climate change on hydrologic regime of the river systems. the impact of manmade changes on the overall hydrological regime is usually not of a very high order of magnitude and can be ignored for the first level study of making the initial national communication to the unfccc (the basic objective of this study). the model generates detailed outputs on flows, actual evapotranspiration and soil moisture status (sub-basin level) at daily interval. many additional sub-components of the total water balance such as surface runoff, interflow, subsurface runoff, groundwater recharge, etc., are also available as part of the detailed output.
What is one example of the application fo climate change probabilities being considered alongside other environmental and socio-economic scenarios?
the application of climate change probabilities needs to be considered together with other environmental and socio-economic scenarios, such as a co-evolutionary approach that integrates socio-economic and climate change scenarios (lorenzoni et al., 2000), the concept of double exposure to climate change and globalization (o'brien and leichenko, 2000), or the construction of 'non implausible' climate and economic scenarios (strzepek et al., 2001
Why are probabilities being used when estimating future climate changes?
probabilities are being used because there are significant uncertainties associated with estimates of future changes in the climate
What is represented in Figure 3?
figure 3 shows a hypothetical example of changing probabilities according to four different development paths and numerous quantifiable uncertainties in the context of water resources
in the context of adaptation to climate change, the main focus of this article, the following questions deserve further attention. how sensitive is a particular system to changing probabilities in climate? how sensitive are adaptation decisions (of this system) to upstream uncertainties (from emission scenarios, global and regional climate modelling and impact modelling)? what is the value of probabilistic information for climate adaptation decision-making? these questions emphasize the importance of sensitivity analysis (saltelli et al., 2000), which is sometimes forgotten in the rush for prediction. if a system is not sensitive to alternative climate futures then no action (in terms of adaptation) is required; i.e. climate change is not a problem. if sensitivity is low, perhaps autonomous adaptation will suffice to cope with the impacts of changing climate. if sensitivity is high, then planned adaptation may be required, and thus probabilities need more in-depth investigation, for uncertainty analysis, for example (see also willows and connell, 2003). also, we should not forget that options for coping with climate change must be considered in the context of multiple stressors (scheraga and grambsch, 1998). the application of climate change probabilities needs to be considered together with other environmental and socio-economic scenarios, such as a co-evolutionary approach that integrates socio-economic and climate change scenarios (lorenzoni et al., 2000), the concept of double exposure to climate change and globalization (o'brien and leichenko, 2000), or the construction of 'non implausible' climate and economic scenarios (strzepek et al., 2001). probabilities are being used because there are significant uncertainties associated with estimates of future changes in the climate. however, it is important to remember that all of these are subjective and highly conditional probabilities. where possible, uncertainty needs to be quantified, but this depends on the type of uncertainty being considered. epistemic uncertainty can be quantified and regularly updated as science progresses, but its range depends on the amount of knowledge available. natural stochastic uncertainty is semi-quantifiable in the sense that there are limits to predictability (of the climate system for example) even if we had perfect knowledge, which we do not have. we believe that human reflexive uncertainty is largely unquantifiable in probabilistic terms in the context of prediction, so scenario approaches have to be used to represent this type of uncertainty (see section 3). once the total quantifiable uncertainty has been combined with the different scenarios (to represent human reflexive uncertainty) it is possible to link these various uncertainties with specific adaptation decisions. figure 3 shows a hypothetical example of changing probabilities according to four different development paths and numerous quantifiable uncertainties in the context of water resources. the challenge
How could renewable energy sources help the environment?
renewable energy sources have a large potential to displace emissions of greenhouse gases from the combustion of fossil fuels and thereby to mitigate climate change
Name six renewable energy sources covered by this report.
it covers six renewable energy sources - bioenergy, direct solar energy, geothermal energy, hydropower, ocean energy and wind energy 
What does the acronym IPCC stand for?
the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) is the leading international body for the assessment of climate change. it was established by the united nations environment programme (unep) and the world meteorological organization (wmo) to provide the world with a clear scientifi c view on the current state of knowledge on climate change
climate change is one of the great challenges of the 21st century. its most severe impacts may still be avoided if efforts are made to transform current energy systems. renewable energy sources have a large potential to displace emissions of greenhouse gases from the combustion of fossil fuels and thereby to mitigate climate change. if implemented properly, renewable energy sources can contribute to social and economic development, to energy access, to a secure and sustainable energy supply, and to a reduction of negative impacts of energy provision on the environment and human health. this special report on renewable energy sources and climate change mitigation (srren) impartially assesses the scientifi c literature on the potential role of renewable energy in the mitigation of climate change for policymakers, the private sector, academic researchers and civil society. it covers six renewable energy sources - bioenergy, direct solar energy, geothermal energy, hydropower, ocean energy and wind energy - as well as their integration into present and future energy systems. it considers the environmental and social consequences associated with the deployment of these technologies, and presents strategies to overcome technical as well as non-technical obstacles to their application and diffusion. the authors also compare the levelized cost of energy from renewable energy sources to recent non-renewable energy costs. the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) is the leading international body for the assessment of climate change. it was established by the united nations environment programme (unep) and the world meteorological organization (wmo) to provide the world with a clear scientifi c view on the current state of knowledge on climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic impacts.
Define groundwater storage changes in Illinois?
regional-scale groundwater storage changes in illinois were estimated from monthly grace twsc data and in situ soil moisture measurements for 36 consecutive months during 2002-2005
Say about work representation?
this work represents the first attempt at using grace data in conjunction with in situ soil moisture observations to estimate groundwater storage changes at a higher spatial resolution than previous studies
How GRACE  was estimated?
the seasonal pattern and amplitude of graceestimated groundwater storage changes track those of in situ measurements reasonably well, although substantial differences exist in month-to-month variations
in this study, regional-scale groundwater storage changes in illinois were estimated from monthly grace twsc data and in situ soil moisture measurements for 36 consecutive months during 2002-2005. the estimates were compared to those derived from in situ measurements of intermediate zone water storage and water table depth. this work represents the first attempt at using grace data in conjunction with in situ soil moisture observations to estimate groundwater storage changes at a higher spatial resolution than previous studies. the seasonal pattern and amplitude of graceestimated groundwater storage changes track those of in situ measurements reasonably well, although substantial differences exist in month-to-month variations. discrepancies can be attributed to the grace satellite measurement and postprocessing errors, the sparse temporal sampling of the ground measurements, and difference in spatial scales represented by the grace and illinois data. results were improved when seasonal cycles rather than month-to-month changes were compared. the seasonal cycle of grace twsc agreed with that observed with a correlation coefficient of 0.83. the seasonal cycle of grace-based estimates of subsurface storage changes below 2 m agrees with observations with a correlation coefficient of 0.63. results suggest that the grace-based approach is more powerful at seasonal rather than monthly timescales. from this study, it can be concluded that grace has the potential for the estimation of groundwater storage figure 5. same as (a) figure 3 and (b) figure 4 but for temporally smoothed monthly time series. also shown is the correlation coefficient between the two plotted time series in figures 5a and 5b.
what are the companies gave funds to this project?
this project was funded by grants from the national science foundation (oce-0323364) and from nasa (nng04ge43g) to b. helmuth
what kind of people are working on it?
we are indebted to the many pisco students, technicians, and support personnel who assisted in this project
Who assist in this project?
additional assistance was provided by sue brady, tara fitzhenry, and mike orr
this project was funded by grants from the national science foundation (oce-0323364) and from nasa (nng04ge43g) to b. helmuth. logistical support was provided by the partnership for interdisciplinary studies of coastal oceans (pisco) and we are indebted to the many pisco students, technicians, and support personnel who assisted in this project. additional assistance was provided by sue brady, tara fitzhenry, and mike orr. access to tatoosh island was made possible by permission from the makah tribal council, for which we are very grateful. this is contribution no. 219 from pisco, funded primarily by the gordon and betty moore foundation and the david and lucille packard foundation. literature cited
How much consideration has been given to the trlaionthis between uncertainty and other perceptions within the climate change domain?
there has been relatively little consideration given to the relationship between uncertainty and other perceptions within the climate change domain
What does the current research aim to provide?
the current research therefore aims to provide a first comprehensive in-depth exploration of the psychological distance dimensions of climate change, examining each proposed dimension of psychological distance in different ways where necessary to explore how these are best characterized in this domain, as well as how the different dimensions of psychological distance relate to one another
How many key lines of researched were considered in relation to the potential consequences of thinking about climate change as a distant or close issue?
we consider two key lines of research in relation to the potential consequences of thinking about climate change as a distant or close issue
however, there has been relatively little consideration given to the relationship between uncertainty and other perceptions within the climate change domain. 1.5. current research overall, there is a variety of research outlining the idea that climate change may be psychologically distant on several dimensions. given the importance of behavior change in the context of meeting the challenging climate change targets we have been psychological distance of climate change 5 set, it is important to examine perceptions of climate change and ways of communicating the risks of climate change in order to promote sustainable behavior. our review of the previous literature has indicated that there may be multiple ways of conceptualizing different dimensions of psychological distance within the domain of climate change. the current research therefore aims to provide a first comprehensive in-depth exploration of the psychological distance dimensions of climate change, examining each proposed dimension of psychological distance in different ways where necessary to explore how these are best characterized in this domain, as well as how the different dimensions of psychological distance relate to one another. furthermore, we will consider how perceived psychological distance relates to concern about climate change and related behavior intentions. we consider two key lines of research in relation to the potential consequences of thinking about climate change as a distant or close issue. clt(4)indicates that greater psychological distance is associated with promoting action that is in line with people's beliefs and core values. however, goal setting theory also points to the utility of goal specificity (linked to psychological closeness) in prompting behavior(25)
What was expressed the relation between K2and Q?
the relation between k2 and q may be expressed as k2 m.qn
what are the m and n?
m and n are coefficients
What is the advantage of this form of expression?
the advantage of this form of expression is that the reaeration coefficient may be calculated for any flow conditions
the procedure is based on the determination of k2 using the hydraulic formula (section b above), for each pair of values of v and h from historical records in the river. subsequently, a regression analysis is performed between the resulting values of k2 and the corresponding flow values q. the relation between k2 and q may be expressed as k2 m.qn, where m and n are coefficients. the advantage of this form of expression is that the reaeration coefficient may be calculated for any flow conditions (by interpolation or even some extrapolation), especially minimum flows, independently from depth and velocity values. 104 to wastewater characteristics, treatment and disposal
Where are Helminth eggs found?
helminth eggs are found in large quantities in pond sludge
Can the eggs be found in the sludge after several years?
sludge from ponds, even after several years, still contains viable eggs
Is the Ascaris lumbricoides the most prevailing helminth species, if considering worldwide?
on worldwide terms, the most prevailing helminth species is ascaris lumbricoides
fc/gts, and their decay takes place during the accumulation period in the pond. helminth eggs are found in large quantities in pond sludge, since the main egg removal mechanism from the liquid phase is sedimentation. the figures vary substantially from one wastewater treatment plant to another, in view of the variable counting in the raw sewage in each location. values obtained from the sludge of an anaerobic pond (gon,calves, 1999) and two polishing ponds (von sperling et al, 2002), both in brazil, ranged largely from 30 to 800 eggs/gts. a long sludge digestion period in the pond seems to contribute to a reduced viability of the eggs. however, it is important to highlight that the sludge from ponds, even after several years, still contains viable eggs, what must be taken into account in their management. data on the sludge from the anaerobic pond mentioned above, operating for several years, are associated with a percentage of viability between 1 and 10%, while the sludge from the polishing ponds, after operation periods of only six months and one year, presented much higher percentages of viability, between 60 and 90%. the helminth species prevailing in the referred to ponds was ascaris lumbricoides ranging from 50 to 99% of the total counting of eggs found. on worldwide terms, the most prevailing helminth species is ascaris lumbricoides but of course the countings and the percentage distribution will vary from place to place. 646 stabilisation ponds
What does the nested modeling approach represent?
the nested modeling approach represents a trade-off between decadalor century-scale, high resolution simulations that are today unattainable, even with the most sophisticated computational resources and relying only on coarse resolution results provided by long-term gcm integrations
What are the ranges of the temperatures?
model biases with respect to observations are in the range of a few tenths to a few degrees for temperature and 10-40% for precipitation
What trade off is representative of the nested modeling approach?
the nested modeling approach represents a trade-off between decadalor century-scale, high resolution simulations that are today unattainable, even with the most sophisticated computational resources and relying only on coarse resolution results provided by long-term gcm integrations
storch, 1999). so-called ''nested'' approaches to regional climate simulations, whereby largescale data or gcm outputs are used as boundary and initial conditions for regional climate model (rcm) simulations, have been applied to future climatic change in the course of the 21stcentury (giorgi and mearns, 1999) over a given geographical area. the technique is applied to specific periods in time (''time slices'' or ''time windows''). gcm results for a given time window include the long-term evolution of climate prior to the chosen time window, based on an incremental increase of greenhouse gases over time. the nested modeling approach represents a trade-off between decadalor century-scale, high resolution simulations that are today unattainable, even with the most sophisticated computational resources and relying only on coarse resolution results provided by long-term gcm integrations. when driven by analyses and observations, rcms generally simulate a realistic structure and evolution of synoptic events. model biases with respect to observations are in the range of a few tenths to a few degrees for temperature and 10-40% for precipitation. these biases tend to decrease with increasing resolution or decreasing rcm domain size. although the method has a number of drawbacks, in particular the fact that the nesting is ''one-way'' (i.e., the climatic forcing occurs only from the larger to the finer
Is there a unique probability over the second type of states?
a second class of alternatives to the expected utility framework is based on the idea that if the world is not kind enough to provide us with a unique probability distribution over states, then there must be many different probability distributions that are consistent with what we know: that is, we have multiple priors
Say Maxmin's attitude?
maxmin expected utility approach the oldest of the multiple prior approaches, and in many ways the simplest, is the maxmin expected utility rule (gilboa and schmeidler 1989). the first step in implementing this approach is to identify all distributions (or " priors " that are consistent with what is known. policies are then ranked according to their lowest expected utility over this set of possible distributions. this means that for each policy we find the distribution that gives it the worst expected outcome and evaluate policies based on these worst cases. thus this approach focuses on " bad distributions
Explain the statement of Klibanoff Marinasi and Mukherjee?
we next discuss the smooth ambiguity model, an approach that allows us this freedom. smooth ambiguity model in the smooth ambiguity model (klibanoff marinaci and mukherji 2005) there are again many possible distributions consistent with what we know, but in this case we assign a subjective weight to each distribution. we then use each of the possible distributions to evaluate a policy, and we combine these evaluations into a single value using the subjective weights of the distributions and a flexible measure of ambiguity aversion. the smooth ambiguity approach allows us to use all of the likelihood information contained in the possible distributions. but in order to do this we need to specify weights for each distribution, and these weights reflect information that is very different from the distributions
a second class of alternatives to the expected utility framework is based on the idea that if the world is not kind enough to provide us with a unique probability distribution over states, then there must be many different probability distributions that are consistent with what we know: that is, we have multiple priors. the idea is to use all of these distributions and weight them in some way. because decision rules based on multiple priors make use of likelihood information, they are naturally more complex than the nonprobabilistic approaches discussed in the previous section. this section summarizes the maxmin expected utility approach, the smooth ambiguity approach, and the multiplier preference approach to decision making with multiple priors. maxmin expected utility approach the oldest of the multiple prior approaches, and in many ways the simplest, is the maxmin expected utility rule (gilboa and schmeidler 1989). the first step in implementing this approach is to identify all distributions (or " priors " that are consistent with what is known. policies are then ranked according to their lowest expected utility over this set of possible distributions. this means that for each policy we find the distribution that gives it the worst expected outcome and evaluate policies based on these worst cases. thus this approach focuses on " bad distributions. " as with all of the multiple prior approaches we will review here, there is no assumption of a unique probability distribution, and we can have incomplete probabilistic information that is compatible with many different distributions. figure 1 illustrates such a situation for climate sensitivity: the data there are consistent with many but not all probability distributions. with this approach, if you do not know what the probabilities are, you ask " what probabilities are consistent with what i do know? " and then use all of these probabilities. what this approach does not do, however, is rank the possible distributions in any way; it simply focuses on the worst case. thus this approach reflects extreme ambiguity aversion--we are very strongly averse to the spread in expected utilities across the set of different probability distributions. in practice, however, we may not want to be so cautious and instead may prefer to reflect the fact that some distributions are more plausible than others. we next discuss the smooth ambiguity model, an approach that allows us this freedom. smooth ambiguity model in the smooth ambiguity model (klibanoff marinaci and mukherji 2005) there are again many possible distributions consistent with what we know, but in this case we assign a subjective weight to each distribution. we then use each of the possible distributions to evaluate a policy, and we combine these evaluations into a single value using the subjective weights of the distributions and a flexible measure of ambiguity aversion. the smooth ambiguity approach allows us to use all of the likelihood information contained in the possible distributions. but in order to do this we need to specify weights for each distribution, and these weights reflect information that is very different from the distributions
How should growth-dependent mortality be modeled?
growth-dependent mortality, above all others, should be modeled as a mechanistic, ecophysiologically based process in gap models to realistically simulate effects of climate change (norby et al., 2001
What is recommended?
it is recommended that new research investigate causal mechanisms of tree mortality and that databases be augmented (e.g., fia database) or created that can support and test this science
How should the diameter incrementation be assessed?
diameter increment should be assessed for its ability to determine growth mortality, and it should be replaced, if needed, with species-specific metrics that more realistically reflect the changing growth patterns of a tree, such as amount of respiring biomass
growth-dependent mortality, above all others, should be modeled as a mechanistic, ecophysiologically based process in gap models to realistically simulate effects of climate change (norby et al., 2001). but, the lack of scientific understanding and available data preclude a process-based formulation. it is recommended that new research investigate causal mechanisms of tree mortality and that databases be augmented (e.g., fia database) or created that can support and test this science. for now, diameter increment should be assessed for its ability to determine growth mortality, and it should be replaced, if needed, with species-specific metrics that more realistically reflect the changing growth patterns of a tree, such as amount of respiring biomass. 5.3. exogenous mortality
How many externalities are in this model?
in this model, there is a single, infinitely-lived agent, no taxes and no externalities, so the market interest rate, r is also the discount rate for public projects, s which we will refer to as the social rate of time preference
What is the assumption about taxes in this model?
in this model, there is a single, infinitely-lived agent, no taxes and no externalities, so the market interest rate, r is also the discount rate for public projects, s which we will refer to as the social rate of time preference
What is r?
r is also the discount rate for public projects
the analytical framework most commonly employed to examine questions of intertemporal resource allocation9is the tractable workhorse bequeathed to us by ramsey (1928). in this model, there is a single, infinitely-lived agent, no taxes and no externalities, so the market interest rate, r is also the discount rate for public projects, s which we will refer to as the social rate of time preference. future flows of consumption are discounted for two reasons. first, we might discount the utility experienced by future generations because we care less about them, or they may not be around. second, if future generations have higher consumption than us we attribute less marginal utility to that consumption. hence, ramsey (1928) gives us the following equation: r s d e g where r the market interest rate; s social rate of time preference (which is the rate for discounting public projects); d (delta) the 'utility discount rate'; e (eta) the 'elasticity of marginal utility' with respect to consumption; and g the expected future growth rate of consumption. the utility discount rate, d is the proportional rate of decline in the weight placed on a unit of utility in the future compared with an equal unit
What are the impact on ecosystems of human-driven transitions?
in general, human-driven transitions may have larger impacts on ecosystems than transitions associated only with climate shifts
Will agriculture be immune from climate change?
the impact of changes in climate and land use will be felt in agriculture, which will continue to play a crucial role in most countries of the region through its direct and indirect impacts on rural development and patterns of migration
Will population in African countries grow in the next decades?
recent projections for six countries of the study region (ethiopia, rwanda, burundi, uganda, kenya, and tanzania) indicate a near-trebling in the number of people between 2000 and 2050, from 174 to 498 million (unpd, 2008
as noted by scholze et al (2006), future climate-induced changes in land cover will occur concurrently with human-induced changes in land use, and in general, human-driven transitions may have larger impacts on ecosystems than transitions associated only with climate shifts. the impact of changes in climate and land use will be felt in agriculture, which will continue to play a crucial role in most countries of the region through its direct and indirect impacts on rural development and patterns of migration (scholes biggs, 2004; dfid, 2005). further pressures will arise from population increases. recent projections for six countries of the study region (ethiopia, rwanda, burundi, uganda, kenya, and tanzania) indicate a near-trebling in the number of people between 2000 and 2050, from 174 to 498 million (unpd, 2008). at the same time, populations are urbanising rapidly, and although income
What is Greenhouse Gases?
simulations of 21st century climate require projections of future greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols (which reflect sunlight and also promote cloud formation, thereby offsetting greenhouse gases locally
What is mean by SRES?
more than 40 of which were produced under the auspices of the ipcc (sres, nakicenovic et al. 2000) after considering a wide range of future socioeconomic changes. three of these "sres" scenarios were commonly chosen for forcing the gcms
Explain B1, A1B, and A2?
b1, a1b, and a2. the climate forcing of all scenarios, including b2 and the older is92a used in the second assessment report (figure 1) is similar until about 2020 owing primarily to the long lifetime of coal fired electric power plants and of the major greenhouse gases. a2 produces the highest climate
simulations of 21st century climate require projections of future greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols (which reflect sunlight and also promote cloud formation, thereby offsetting greenhouse gases locally), more than 40 of which were produced under the auspices of the ipcc (sres, nakicenovic et al. 2000) after considering a wide range of future socioeconomic changes. three of these "sres" scenarios were commonly chosen for forcing the gcms: b1, a1b, and a2. the climate forcing of all scenarios, including b2 and the older is92a used in the second assessment report (figure 1) is similar until about 2020 owing primarily to the long lifetime of coal fired electric power plants and of the major greenhouse gases. a2 produces the highest climate
What could "decision maps" identify?
decision maps'' could identify leverage points at higher levels to affect widespread change in climate-relevant decision-making, effectively identifying ''mainstreaming'' opportunities
Do adaptation actions happen mostly locally?
adaptation actions will frequently (but certainly not exclusively) be local and, therefore, dispersed and difficult to inform efficiently
How will we gain political support?
a significant contribution can be made by the behavioral branches of geography and neighboring disciplines by improving our understanding of ways to foster behavior change in the wider populace, which will clearly be needed to gain political support and to implement both mitigation and adaptation policies
adaptation actions will frequently (but certainly not exclusively) be local and, therefore, dispersed and difficult to inform efficiently. nonetheless, it may be possible to draw ''decisions maps''-reflections of real-world decision procedures (e.g., in siting decisions, long-term planning processes, operational management and so on) that clearly mark all relevant steps and inputs from contributing institutions or individuals. these ''decision maps'' could identify leverage points at higher levels to affect widespread change in climate-relevant decision-making, effectively identifying ''mainstreaming'' opportunities. such research could also assist in the cross-scale integration of adaptation responses as systems at different levels either require support from others or affect the adaptation decision space of other jurisdictions. finally, a significant contribution can be made by the behavioral branches of geography and neighboring disciplines by improving our understanding of ways to foster behavior change in the wider populace, which will clearly be needed to gain political support and to implement both mitigation and adaptation policies.
What led to the development of the adaptive approach to thermal comfort?
interest in the phenomenon outlined above has led to the development of the so-called adaptive approach to thermal comfort
What are the effects of thermal comfort?
attributes the effect to an accumulation of behaviours or other factors which, taken together, are used to ensure comfort
Which items does the list contain?
the lists contain physiological, psychological, social and behavioural items
interest in the phenomenon outlined above has led to the development of the so-called adaptive approach to thermal comfort which attributes the effect to an accumulation of behaviours or other factors which, taken together, are used to ensure comfort. in a defining paper on the approach, humphreys and nicol 10 explained the meaning of adaptive actions (see box 9.6 ). box 9.6 shows some of the actions which may be initiated in response to cold or to heat. the lists are intended to be illustrative of an indefinitely large number of conceivable types of action, and are by no means comprehensive. it will be noticed that the lists contain physiological, psychological, social and behavioural items. the lists have in mind the climate and culture of the uk and some items would need modification for other lands.
How affected is the Krishna river?
the krishna river basin has been predicted to undergo severe drought conditions under ghg scenario. the basin has been sub-divided into 21 sub-basins as depicted in figure 3. the annual average precipitation, actual evapotranspiration and water yield as simulated by the model over the total krishna basin for control and ghg scenarios are shown in figure 4
Will the Krishna river basin suffer any damage in the next few years?
a close examination of the results reveals that this river basin is expected to receive reduced level of precipitation in future. reduction has also been predicted in evapotranspiration and water yield of the basin
How reliable are the data and numbers used in this research?
the year numbers used here are only representative of the period and should not be taken as chronological series that are comparable to the actual observed series
the krishna river basin has been predicted to undergo severe drought conditions under ghg scenario. the basin has been sub-divided into 21 sub-basins as depicted in figure 3. the annual average precipitation, actual evapotranspiration and water yield as simulated by the model over the total krishna basin for control and ghg scenarios are shown in figure 4. the year numbers used here are only representative of the period and should not be taken as chronological series that are comparable to the actual observed series. a close examination of the results reveals that this river basin is expected to receive reduced level of precipitation in future. reduction has also been predicted in evapotranspiration and water yield of the basin.
When did the systematic weather monitoring start?
the beginning of systematic weather monitoring in the 1800s
Why weather indicators often display significant spatial correlation?
weather indicators often display significant spatial correlation due to the underlying data-generating process as well as the extrapolation methods employed
How majority of recent economic studies simulate the future impacts of climate change?
the majority of recent economic studies use the statistically estimated causal effect of weather on the economic outcome of interest to simulate the future impacts of climate change, based on the output of global climate models (gcms), on that outcome. gcms1
anyone who has ever struggled with station-level weather data is well aware of the fact that since the beginning of systematic weather monitoring in the 1800s, stations are born and die, and almost all have a large number of missing observations. further, there is not necessarily a weather station in each location of interest to the economist. in order to overcome these issues, a number of gridded weather data sets have been developed; these provide complete coverage over land by extrapolating existing weather information from monitors over a grid. although many of these data sets are free and easily imported into formats used by economists, there are five pitfalls that empirical researchers should be aware of before using any of these data sets in econometric settings. first, while many of the gridded weather products that are available reproduce very similar average temperatures for the majority of grid cells, the derived deviations around the mean can be significantly different second, if one is interested in creating a weather series for a geographic region, simply averaging nonmissing weather station data for stations in the region introduces measurement error, which has well understood econometric consequences. third, the correlation between weather variables (e.g., rainfall and temperature) across space varies significantly in sign and magnitude. this can lead to the classic problem of indeterminate omitted variables bias in applications that fail to control for the full suite of weather indicators. fourth, weather indicators often display significant spatial correlation due to the underlying data-generating process as well as the extrapolation methods employed. this may lead to significant multicollinearity, which in turn may lead to inflated standard errors on included weather variables. finally, because the weather stations used to construct the gridded products come in and out of existence, there may be artificial variation and breakpoints in the temperature series, which the econometrician needs to examine, especially when working on a small geographic region. the majority of recent economic studies use the statistically estimated causal effect of weather on the economic outcome of interest to simulate the future impacts of climate change, based on the output of global climate models (gcms), on that outcome. gcms1
Why was the professionals' help needed?
their support was critical in helping us better understand the available data and the various linkages between flows
Who else did the authors thank?
the authors would like to acknowledge the contribution of gianleo frisari
What did Gianleo Frisari do?
a brief on a specific study featured in the report
the authors wish to thank the following professionals for their cooperation and valued contributions, including, in alphabetical order, claudio alatorre frenk, preety bhandari, bonizella biagini, andreas biermann, felicitas birckenbach, marcel birkman, murray birt, paul bodnar, lucas bossard, milena breisinger, jessica brown, edward calthrop, alice caravani, sarah carta, christa clapp, ian cochran, mafalda duarte, jane ebinger, ubaldo elizondo, jane ellis, taryn fransen, jorge gastelumendi, erik haites, marcelo jordan, sahara juichiro, mihoko kawamura, tom michael kerr, sumalee khosla, alejandro kilpatrick, franka kingel, johanna lutterfelds, guilherme martins, ariane meier, hafiz mirza, john e. morton, rusmir music, stephanie ockenden, valerie pacardo, charlie parker, cecilia piemonte, ingo puhl, lisa ryan, nancy saich, sebastian spannenberg, roland sundstrom, dennis tirpak, eric usher, shally venugopal, jeanne vinas, vikram widge, sheelagh whitley, ming yang, and ariel yuqing. a special thanks to the landscape 2013 steering committee members philippe ambrosi, jan corfeemorlot, pierre forestier, and jochen harnisch who advised us during the development of the report. their support was critical in helping us better understand the available data and the various linkages between flows. our work has benefited substantially from their expert inputs and suggestions. finally, the authors would like to acknowledge the contribution of gianleo frisari for a brief on a specific study featured in the report. a special thanks also to ruby barcklay, thomas heller, david nelson, elysha rom-povolo, anja rosenberg, dan storey, uday varadarajan, and tim varga and for their help, useful comments, suggestions, and internal review.
What are the enzymes occured in freshwater animals ?
lactate dehydrogenase, cytochrome c oxidase, citrate synthase
Definition of candidate model ?
fixed factors included in candidate models are mean annual temperature (tmean), standard deviation of temperature (tsd), and autocorrelation of temperature (tautocorr
supplementary table 3 candidate model set and values of akaike's information criterion (aic) for the post-acclimation thermal sensitivity ('chronic') of enzyme activities (lactate dehydrogenase, cytochrome c oxidase, citrate synthase) for freshwater animals. fixed factors included in candidate models are mean annual temperature (tmean), standard deviation of temperature (tsd), and autocorrelation of temperature (tautocorr). the best model, given the data, is the one with the lowest aic and models are presented in aic order from lowest to highest; d aic is the difference in aic between a given model and the best model, and the probability that a given model is the best of those tested is given by its akaike weight, wi 1. models are presented in lme4 6 notation, with random intercept effects identified with ' ' (i.e. '1 species' fits a random intercept for the categorical factor that identifies species). formula aic daic wi
What percentage of farmers agree the temperature has increased?
seventy eight percent of respondents (81 percent of men and 75 percent of women) agreed that the temperature had increased
What was the reason for the increase in tempurature?
when asked why these changes were happening, most respondents said they do not know or "only god knows
Have the farmers environmental conditions changed from thier original preceptions?
it is clear from the recorded data and farmers' perceptions that the conditions with which farmers are familiar were changing
the recorded data suggests a shift in average climate conditions. furthermore, all farmers participating in the quantitative survey agreed that the weather had changed over the past thirty years. seventy eight percent of respondents (81 percent of men and 75 percent of women) agreed that the temperature had increased while 97 percent of respondents (97 percent of men and 97 percent of women) agreed that the amount of rain was less. when asked why these changes were happening, most respondents said they do not know or "only god knows". while it might not be clear to the farmers why the changes were happening, it is clear from the recorded data and farmers' perceptions that the conditions with which farmers are familiar were changing and, as the subsequent sections will show, their livelihoods and well-being appeared to be under stress. figure 4. number of days with maximum temperature greater than or equal to 35.5 degc and minimum temperature greater than or equal to 26 degc at anantapur. (data provided by angrau)
In what climates have traditional societies been able to live in adequate comfort in buildings and settlements for the last 10 000 years?
in a wide range of climates, from the tropics to the arctic
traditional societies have for at least 10 000 years lived in adequate comfort in buildings and settlements in a wide range of climates, from the tropics to the arctic, without the use of mechanical cooling or the need for large amounts of energy. until 120 years ago the only energy available to many societies to heat or cool their buildings was what they could find, mine, collect and carry home, be it dung, coal, wood, peat, water or ice. for 90% of the world's population this is still the case. there were many ways in which buildings could be used and adapted to enable people to colonize the planet. 1 they could:
Is it three to four times more abundant in the Fonderosa pine?
sapwood thickness as a percentage of total stem diameter was three to four times greater in ponderosa pine than in douglas-fir p 0.001
What is the percentage of growth rings and the growth rates of the species and the site?
but differences in sapwood thickness were not significant between east and west-side populations p 0.078, table 3). on the other hand, the percentage of growth rings included in the sapwood differed significantly by both species and site p 0.001) as did growth rates p 0.001 for both comparisons,table 3
What is the thickness of the subcut?
with west-side populations having thicker sapwood and growing faster than east-side populations, and ponderosa pine growing faster and having much thicker sapwood than douglas-fir. stem diameter at breast height was positively correlated with sapwood thickness p 0.001, r2= 0.25) but not with tree age p 0.40
sapwood thickness as a percentage of total stem diameter was three to four times greater in ponderosa pine than in douglas-fir p 0.001), but differences in sapwood thickness were not significant between east and west-side populations p 0.078, table 3). on the other hand, the percentage of growth rings included in the sapwood differed significantly by both species and site p 0.001) as did growth rates p 0.001 for both comparisons,table 3), with west-side populations having thicker sapwood and growing faster than east-side populations, and ponderosa pine growing faster and having much thicker sapwood than douglas-fir. stem diameter at breast height was positively correlated with sapwood thickness p 0.001, r2= 0.25) but not with tree age p 0.40).
What is phenology the science of?
phenology is the science of recurring events in nature
In the biological sciences, what does the core of phenological research address?
in the biological sciences, the core of phenological research addresses the timing of switches between recurrent developmental or behavioural phases of organisms
in the field of remote sensing, what is often addressed as phenological changes (as an analogy)?
used as an analogy, continuous changes in the reflectance of vegetative covers are often addressed as phenological changes in the field of remote sensing
phenology is the science of recurring events in nature. a working group of the international biological program proposed the definition: 'phenology is the study of the timing of recurrent biological events, the causes of their timing with regard to biotic and abiotic forces, and the interrelation among phases of the same or different species' (lieth, 1974). the name of the science has generally also been used to address the object - the term 'phenology' is applied to the annual course of developmental events. it is applied in biological and geosciences (e.g. phenology of glaciers, lake ice). in the biological sciences, the core of phenological research addresses the timing of switches between recurrent developmental or behavioural phases of organisms. however, some researchers stretch the term to cover continuous changes in traits, e.g. growth of organs (termed phenometry by schnelle, 1955). used as an analogy, continuous changes in the reflectance of vegetative covers are often addressed as phenological changes in the field of remote sensing. based on its well known variation with the annual course of weather elements, plant phenology might be expected to be one of the most responsive and easily observable traits in nature that change in response to climate. trends in the
What influences the refined evolution in species in the above passage?
the polar bear) to spatial and temporal domains influenced by the seasonal extremes and variability of sea ice, temperature, and day length that define the arctic. recent changes in arctic climate may challenge the adaptive capability of these species
What are impacts of climate change on the species which hinges on sea ice?
a synthesis of the impacts of climate change on all these species hinges on sea ice, in its role as: (1) platform, (2) marine ecosystem foundation, and (3) barrier to non-ice-adapted marine mammals and human commercial activities
What kind of species are suggested for tracking and accessing arctic ecosystem?
the means to track and assess arctic ecosystem change using sentinel marine mammal species are suggested to offer a framework for scientific investigation and responsible resource management
evolutionary selection has refined the life histories of seven species (three cetacean [narwhal, beluga, and bowhead whales], three pinniped [walrus, ringed, and bearded seals], and the polar bear) to spatial and temporal domains influenced by the seasonal extremes and variability of sea ice, temperature, and day length that define the arctic. recent changes in arctic climate may challenge the adaptive capability of these species. nine other species (five cetacean [fin, humpback, minke, gray, and killer whales] and four pinniped [harp, hooded, ribbon, and spotted seals]) seasonally occupy arctic and subarctic habitats and may be poised to encroach into more northern latitudes and to remain there longer, thereby competing with extant arctic species. a synthesis of the impacts of climate change on all these species hinges on sea ice, in its role as: (1) platform, (2) marine ecosystem foundation, and (3) barrier to non-ice-adapted marine mammals and human commercial activities. therefore, impacts are categorized for: (1) ice-obligate species that rely on sea ice platforms, (2) iceassociated species that are adapted to sea ice-dominated ecosystems, and (3) seasonally migrant species for which sea ice can act as a barrier. an assessment of resilience is far more speculative, as any number of scenarios can be envisioned, most of them involving potential trophic cascades and anticipated human perturbations. here we provide resilience scenarios for the three ice-related species categories relative to four regions defined by projections of sea ice reductions by 2050 and extant shelf oceanography. these resilience scenarios suggest that: (1) some populations of ice-obligate marine mammals will survive in two regions with sea ice refugia, while other stocks may adapt to ice-free coastal habitats, (2) ice-associated species may find suitable feeding opportunities within the two regions with sea ice refugia and, if capable of shifting among available prey, may benefit from extended foraging periods in formerly ice-covered seas, but (3) they may face increasing competition from seasonally migrant species, which will likely infiltrate arctic habitats. the means to track and assess arctic ecosystem change using sentinel marine mammal species are suggested to offer a framework for scientific investigation and responsible resource management.
Why is CLM employed?
clm is employed for numerous terrestrial modeling studies
what is Residing within the Community Earth System Model used for?
residing within the community earth system model (cesm)65, clm is also used to estimate future climate changes for different socioeconomic scenarios
model comparisons we compared a number of our observations to two global fire models: the global fire we compared a number of our observations to two global fire models: the global fire emissions database version 3, including contributions from small fires (gfed)74,75, and the community land model version 4.5 (clm)76 (supplementary table 3). gfed is used as one of the primary datasets on contemporary global fire emissions, and clm is employed for numerous terrestrial modeling studies. residing within the community earth system model (cesm)65, clm is also used to estimate future climate changes for different socioeconomic scenarios. cesm is one of the models examined in the fifth phase of the coupled model intercomparison
who did introduce This modern panel data approach ?
this modern panel data approach was first introduced (to the best of our knowledge) to the conflict literature by miguel, satyanath, and sergenti 2004
what does Time fixed effect  on?
time fixed effects tht flexibly account for other time-trending variables such as economic growth or gradual demographic changes that could be correlated with both climate and conflict
why are The author-preferred results useful to highlight ?
these author-preferred results are useful to highlight because individual authors are likely to have detailed knowledge about the contexts they study, and thus it is reasonable to believe that they would be more likely to choose an appropriate econometric model based on this insight, i.e., recognizing which climate variables are most influential or which time controls are most important
the time-series or panel analyses that we focus on use versions of the general model: conflict variableit b x climate variableit ui tht [?]it (3) where locations are indexed by i observational periods are indexed by t b is the parameter of interest and [?] is the error. this modern panel data approach was first introduced (to the best of our knowledge) to the conflict literature by miguel, satyanath, and sergenti 2004 ). if different locations in a sample exhibit different average levels of conflict - because of any number of cultural, historical, political, economic, geographic or institutional differences between the locations - this will be accounted for by the location-specific fixed-effects ui. time fixed effects tht flexibly account for other time-trending variables such as economic growth or gradual demographic changes that could be correlated with both climate and conflict. in some cases in the existing literature, the tht parameters may be replaced by a generic trend (eg. - th x t which is possibly nonlinear and is either common to all locations or may be a vector of location-specific trends (eg. - thi x t ). in many cases, eq. 3 also includes in the covariates the climate variable of interest lagged, as well as possibly controls for "nuisance" climate variables (e.g. rainfall, if temperature is the variable of interest) that are treated as controls because they may be correlated with the climate variable of interest auffhammer et al. 2013 )). we first present conclusions from the literature as initially presented by authors in their preferred regression specification. these models may have different structure imposed on their trends, different climate controls and different lags of climate variables. however, all of them include location-specific fixed-effects since that is central to the credibility of the result, and is the methodological selection criteria we employ for inclusion in this review. these author-preferred results are useful to highlight because individual authors are likely to have detailed knowledge about the contexts they study, and thus it is reasonable to believe that they would be more likely to choose an appropriate econometric model based on this insight, i.e., recognizing which climate variables are most influential or which time controls are most important. however, differences in authors' econometric modeling approaches present some difficulties when comparing results across studies. it is possible that authors selectively focus on their "strongest" results in terms of coefficient magnitude or statistical significance, introducing bias. for these reasons, we also present a second set of empirical results where we use a single standardized specification including both contemporaneous and lagged terms for all available climate variables. in cases where the authors did not present such a specification in their paper, we obtain the original data wherever possible and re-analyze the results using this approach or we contacted authors and received updated analyses from them in line with our specification. in all, we carried out a re-analysis for 29 studies out of the 56 total studies include in this review.2
Global warming is also termed as?
global warming or climate change
which has framed the issue of climate change?
science, of course, has framed the issue of climate change/global warming
what this paper speaks about?
n this paper, we explore under what conditions belief in global warming or climate change, as identified and defined by experience, science and the media, can be maintained in the public's perception
global warming (or climate change) is, without elaboration, a much debated and contested issue not only is it contested among scientists but also among all those with vested interests.  we suggest that, in the realm of the public, forces act to maintain or denounce a perceived reality which has already been constructed. that is, an issue introduced by science (or media for that matter) needs continual expression of confirmation if it is to be maintained as an issue.  science, of course, has framed the issue of climate change/global warming.  in this paper, we explore under what conditions belief in global warming or climate change, as identified and defined by experience, science and the media, can be maintained in the public's perception.
During warmer months, what is a significant factor towards mortalities?
heat stress is a significant factor in mortalities during the warmer months
At what age is a person considered to be of high risk?
especially for persons aged 65 and above
What improvement can be seen in Washingston State over the last few decades?
in the last decades, overall ambient air quality has improved in washington state
heat stress is a significant factor in mortalities during the warmer months in washington state, especially for persons aged 65 and above. as summer (may-sept.) heat increases and the population grows, washington can expect an increase in the number of heat-related deaths annually. more research should be done to explore other important factors influencing the effect of heat on mortality in washington, including individuals' socioeconomic status and access to cooling in very hot weather. in the last decades, overall ambient air quality has improved in washington state through regulatory policy but health impacts continue and climate change related effects may threaten gains that have been made. a better understanding of climate change impacts on ambient air quality is critical to prepare for and alleviate potential worsened public health consequences.
What is the important components of the climate system ?
the oceans are an important component of the climate system
What could ocean wave heigbt be affacted by ?
by anthropogenic forcing of the climate system
What are projections of wave height useful for ?
the design and operation of coastal and offshore industries
the oceans are an important component of the climate system and oceanborne commerce is sensitive to the state of the ocean surface. among other surface characteristics, ocean wave height could be affected by anthropogenic forcing of the climate system. since the design of offshore oil platforms and other marine and coastal infrastructure is constrained by the largest wave height event anticipated during a fixed design period, increases in the extremes of wave height could have an impact on the life span of these installations that will be in excess of impacts anticipated from the rising sea level. projections of ocean wave height are therefore useful for the design and operation of coastal and offshore industries. however, previous studies in this field are limited. the stowasus-2100 (regional storm, wave, and surge scenarios for the 2100 century) group (kaas and the stowasus group 2001) carried out two 30yr time-slice experiments for the northeast atlantic: a control run for the period of 1970-99, and a double co2 run for the period of 2060-89. the wasa (waves and storms in the north atlantic) group (1998) carried out a similar pair of 5-yr time-slice experiments for the north atlantic as well as producing a statistical projection of future anomalies of intramonthly quantiles of
According to Keith, what contributed to enormous increase in carbon dioxide?
keith points out that fossil fuel combustion has resulted in enormous increases in carbon dioxide
According to passage, What is geoengineering?
the author admits that solar geoengineering, which calls for "injecting reflective particles of sulfuric acid into the upper atmosphere" in order to create a cooling effect
david keith mit press (oct 27, 2013) hardcover $14.95 (112pp) 978-0-262-01982-8 a climate-science expert discusses a dramatic potential solution to climate change in a book written for the layman. harvard professor david keith, an expert in climate science, doesn't expect everyone to agree with his theory that solar geoengineering "could increase the productivity of ecosystems across the planet and stop global warming." rather, the purpose of his thoughtful and timely book "is simply to convince you that it's a hard choice." keith points out that fossil fuel combustion has resulted in enormous increases in carbon dioxide. he makes a reasoned argument that, if the world community were to take responsibility and be proactive, it could feasibly cut carbon dioxide emissions. but the author also suggests that, in the short term, geoengineering, which can be accomplished at a relatively reasonable cost, "could be used to cut the average rate of global warming in half for the next half-century." perhaps the most interesting aspect of this small book is keith's smoothness in explaining geoengineering itself. he writes in simple language that can be understood by any reader. keith's ability to limit scientific jargon is admirable, as is his objectivity in presenting both sides of the argument. the author admits that solar geoengineering, which calls for "injecting reflective particles of sulfuric acid into the upper atmosphere" in order to create a cooling effect, could be dangerous if misused. still, he favors "gradual deployment" because he believes the benefits outweigh the risks. as with any good scientific treatise, keith establishes his case and discusses the pros and cons in detail. what makes the book all the more interesting, however, is the fact that he openly and honestly discusses his own internal dilemma about geoengineering. while keith generally supports it, he recognizes that it is not without risk. in discussing both the pros and cons, keith is not only forthcoming about his own opinion, but he also exposes the reader to opposing views. this lends a great degree of credibility both to the book and to the author's integrity. in the end, keith writes, "climate change forces hard trade-offs." he goes so far as to say that "geoengineering often seems a joyless choice between unpleasant alternatives." when it comes to climate change, a topic that frequently seems to devolve into emotional arguments, keith sounds like the adult voice of reason. one may or may not agree with his stand, but reading this finely crafted book is likely to enlighten one about some of the serious issues surrounding climate change. barry silverstein (spring 2014)
What are three examples of pressures upon the food supply chain?
the current quality assurance and control tools/methods to prevent and/or to control microbiological risks associated with fresh produce are challenged due to different pressures upon the food supply chain, e.g. changing consumption patterns, globalization and climate change
What are some tools presented by the researchers to provide insights in the complex dynamic ecosystem?
results: simulation of climate change scenarios and the logistic chain of fresh produce, along with mathematical models to optimize packaging technology to maintain quality and safety of fresh produce are tools to provide insights in the complex dynamic ecosystem
In which two areas is the proposed knowledge-based modelling system believed to be most appropriate?
conclusion: the proposed knowledge-based modelling system is believed to be a most appropriate way to identify problems and to offer solutions to monitor and prevent microbiological food safety risks during all phases of food production and supply
the current quality assurance and control tools/methods to prevent and/or to control microbiological risks associated with fresh produce are challenged due to different pressures upon the food supply chain, e.g. changing consumption patterns, globalization and climate change. a conceptual research approach is presented to analyse the complexity of the climate change and globalization challenge on the fresh produce supply chain taken as a case study. the factors which affect the vulnerability of the fresh produce chain demand a multidisciplinary research approach. results: simulation of climate change scenarios and the logistic chain of fresh produce, along with mathematical models to optimize packaging technology to maintain quality and safety of fresh produce are tools to provide insights in the complex dynamic ecosystem. they are the basis for elaboration of risk assessment studies to scientifically support management options and decisions to new microbiological threats related to globalization and climate change in the fresh produce supply chain. systematic diagnosis of food safety management system performance, using dedicated (system and microbiological) assessment tools, will provide insight in weaknesses and strength of currently implemented food safety management system, in view of current and changing contextual situations, wherein they have to operate. base line surveys and risk assessment studies on emerging microbiological hazards (due to the changing environment), will provide scientific evidence based insights in emerging safety risks. sophisticated climate change models combined with comprehensive databases will give insight in global narrative scenarios for climate change. advanced simulation models will provide insight in impact of different logistics systems designs (scenarios) on specific product quality and safety parameters and total logistics costs. new tools for risk based sampling plans and appropriate microbiological assessment can support monitoring of risks. conclusion: the proposed knowledge-based modelling system is believed to be a most appropriate way to identify problems and to offer solutions to monitor and prevent microbiological food safety risks during all phases of food production and supply. it will be applied in the eu project vegitrade.
What terms might I search in order to obtain information in the paragraph?
key words: epibenthic predators * crangon crangon * cerastoderma edule * macoma balthica * mya arenaria * tidal flats * fishery disturbance * sediment composition
Which people are in conflict due to the recruitment failures of bivalve species?
sharpening conflicts between nature conservationists and fishermen
What time period were the data sets collected?
1973 to 2002
in the last ~15 yr, frequent recruitment failures in the main bivalve species in the western wadden sea led to insufficient food supply for some specialised bird species, sharpening conflicts between nature conservationists and fishermen. to study possible causes of the recent recruitment failure in bivalves, we compare long-term data sets (1973 to 2002) of annual abundance of spat of 3 of the most important species of bivalves (cockle cerastoderma edule gaper clam mya arenaria and baltic tellin macoma balthica on balgzand, a tidal-flat area in the westernmost part of the wadden sea. in the 3 species, recruitment success declined significantly over the period of observation, particularly at offshore sampling sites which were characterized by low intertidal levels and sandy sediments. in these areas, we found high biomass values of a predator of bivalve postlarvae, the shrimp crangon crangon in each of the 3 bivalve species, annual recruitment (estimated as numerical density of spat in august) in these areas was negatively related to shrimp biomass at the time of settlement of postlarvae (may/june). shrimp biomass has increased over the last ~30 yr. high near-shore flats showed invariably low shrimp biomass values and appear to serve as a refuge for postlarval bivalves in years of high predation pressure. only in this coastal part of balgzand was no decline in bivalve recruitment found; in fact, cockle recruitment even increased. alternative explanations for the observed changes in recruitment of bivalves are discussed, including changes in sediment composition and bottom-disturbing fishing for cockles, mussels and lugworms. it is concluded that the recruitment trends on balgzand (and other parts of the wadden sea) are governed primarily by natural processes, in particular increases in predation pressure on early benthic stages, which in turn appears to be largely governed by the warming climate. key words: epibenthic predators * crangon crangon * cerastoderma edule * macoma balthica * mya arenaria * tidal flats * fishery disturbance * sediment composition
What is a UKCP09 Weather Generator?
the ukcp09 weather generator is based around a stochastic rainfall model that simulates future rainfall sequences
What changes the probability created in UKCP09?
statistical measures within the weather generator are then modified according to the probabilistic projections developed in ukcp09
Depending on what the daily temperature is?
in the ukcp09 wg these are: mean daily temperature, diurnal temperature range, vapour pressure and sunshine) are determined by mathematical/statistical relationships with rainfall and values of the variables on the previous day
the ukcp09 weather generator is based around a stochastic rainfall model that simulates future rainfall sequences. other weather variables are then generated according to the rainfall state. statistical measures within the weather generator are then modified according to the probabilistic projections developed in ukcp09. weather generators mostly work in the same way, with rainfall generally taken to be the primary variable (wilks and wilby, 1999), so that depending on whether the day is wet or dry, other weather variables (in the ukcp09 wg these are: mean daily temperature, diurnal temperature range, vapour pressure and sunshine) are determined by mathematical/statistical relationships with rainfall and values of the variables on the previous day. these inter-variable relationships (or ivrs) maintain both the consistency between and within each of the variables.
When was the tracheal mite a pest?
in the 20th century
How long does the colonies infested with the Varroa parasite last if left untreated
two to three years
What does Varroa mites do with the honey bee's
help to diminish the honey bee's immune response and encourage the development of viral infections
the honey bee tracheal mite, acarapis woodi is a parasite of apis mellifera and apis cerana it lodges itself in the trachea of worker bees, where it breeds, and eventually suffocates them (34). although it was a pest in the 20th century, the tracheal mite is now no longer a major problem for world apiculture. tropilaelaps spp. is a parasitic mite of apis dorsata honey bees in tropical asia. the of apis mellifera into the distribution range of apis dorsata has provided the tropilaelaps mite with a new host. a recent study based on molecular markers has identified at least four tropilaelaps species in asia, although t. clareae is the only one that is parasitic to apis mellifera (2). in this region of the world, apis mellifera is also prey to another parasitic mite, varroa destructor with the two species engaged in fierce competition for parasitism. tropilaelaps are brood parasites, feeding on the haemolymph of the bee brood and breeding there. a proliferation of these parasites can kill honey bee colonies and encourage the emergence of other pathogens. the mite is so reliant on brood that it dies after more than seven days without it. the varroa mite, varroa destructor (fig. 3), is a pest that destroys colonies of apis mellifera worldwide, with the exception of australia where it is not yet present. scientists tend to attribute honey bee mortality largely to the varroa mite. originally a parasite of the asian honey bee, apis cerana it was transferred to the european honey bee, apis mellifera in the mid-twentieth century by exchanges of genetic material among many countries (28). left untreated, colonies infested with the varroa parasite die after two to three years. it is impossible to eradicate this parasitic infection. varroa mites help to diminish the honey bee's immune response and encourage the development of viral infections (13). they are also active vectors in the transmission of viruses and bacteria (43, 44). the problems with varroa parasite control are typical of those encountered in curbing any insect pest population. varroa are becoming resistant to the acaricides used by beekeepers to control them (25). the recent discovery in several parts of the world (notably the united states of america [usa] and europe of honey bee colonies able to tolerate heavy infestations of varroa destructor opens the door to lasting solutions for controlling the parasite. the biological basis of this tolerance has begun to be unravelled using innovative genomic methods that suggest that honey bee tolerance of varroa is determined more by behaviour than by immunological factors (26).
What is the frequency at which injections of volcanic material into the stratosphere occur?
injections of volcanic material into the stratosphere are relatively common, occurring on a timescale of about once per year
Is it possible to predict major volcanic eruptions in advance?
major volcanic eruptions that have an impact on climate generally occur on a multidecadal timescale and are impossible to predict much in advance
What provides insight into how to mitigate data gaps for future major volcanic eruptions?
shortcomings in the ability of models to reproduce observed climate changes following this event provide insight into how to mitigate data gaps for future similar eruptions
injections of volcanic material into the stratosphere are relatively common, occurring on a timescale of about once per year. most of these injections are small with little or no discernible impact on climate. major volcanic eruptions that have an impact on climate generally occur on a multidecadal timescale and are impossible to predict much in advance. in this context, major volcanic eruptions refer to those that inject more than 1 tg of sulfur into the stratosphere, such as the eruption of tambora in 1815 or mount pinatubo in 1991. these major events can have a signi fi cant impact on climate by reducing solar radiation reaching the earth ' s surface. changes in regional and global weather patterns can not only impact surface air temperature but also rainfall and, thus, the availability of water for direct consumption and agriculture. as a result, depending on the magnitude of these changes, major volcanic eruptions could foster regional or global societal and political instability. hence, an important focus for the climate science community is to understand the climate impact of a recent major eruption to advise national and international organizations, and nongovernmental organizations, on how to prepare for the next major volcanic eruption. what do we need to do to provide an accurate assessment of future climate impacts of a new major volcanic eruption? alternatively, since the eruption of mount pinatubo is the best measured and most frequently modeled major volcanic eruption, we may ask " how much do we understand about the pinatubo eruption, and where are our knowledge gaps? " shortcomings in the ability of models to reproduce observed climate changes following this event provide insight into how to mitigate data gaps for future similar eruptions. the ability to assess the impact of a volcanic eruption on seasonal to decadal scale climate variability and predictability depends crucially on representing the critical physical and chemical processes in climate models and providing realistic initial conditions. climate simulation of major volcanic eruptions is an area with substantial progress over the last two decades robock 2000; timmreck 2012]. ongoing efforts such as those undertaken as a part of the coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (cmip6) projects such as the model intercomparison project on the climate response to volcanic forcing (volmip) and decadal climate prediction panel focus on understanding the regional and large-scale shortand long-term climate effects of major eruptions and will lead to improvements in the model capabilities to accurately reproduce these climate effects. accurate initial volcanic eruption and cloud parameters such as eruption length, amount of material released, its vertical distribution, and the initial rapid removal of sulfur on ice and ash particles, are essential for models to predict climate impacts realistically. while reasonable column estimates are available for so2 emissions from pinatubo, very little is known about its initial vertical distribution. as a result, the vertical distribution of so2 in model simulations of the pinatubo eruption varies signi fi cantly and is, in part, responsible for discrepancies in the simulated aerosol layer and inferred climate impacts between models. space-based instruments like sage ii provided substantial information regarding the dispersal of the pinatubo plume. however, sage ii was unable to measure the full depth of the pinatubo layer in its densest periods due to its high opacity. while calipso measurements would not be prone to these dif fi culties there are other challenges to using lidar-based observations. in any case, support from airborne and ground-based measurements is essential for a full characterization of the aftermath of a major eruption. other current unknowns include understanding the role that chemical and other physical processes play within the original volcanic plume on the initial characteristics and distribution of aerosols. furthermore, the degree to which the evolution of the volcanic layer depends on material directly injected as aerosols into the stratosphere, and the contribution of non-so2 aerosol precursors (sulfur and nonsulfur bearing) within the plume, is almost completely unknown. the role of ash in the aerosol nucleation process, its longevity, the impact of heterogeneous reactions on ash surfaces, and the radiative characteristics of the resultant aerosol mixtures are also not well understood. these issues need further investigation to understand future climate impacts of major volcanic eruptions. ultimately, preparing for the next major eruption places a burden on the science community to identify (i) what parameters need to be measured, (ii) existing or developing new instruments necessary to provide the required measurements, and (iii) a concept for a rapid climate model-based assessment of the short-term and long-term climate impact of any possible major volcanic eruption. a priority should be placed on developing a rapidresponse capability to deploy balloon-borne or airborne instrumentation to obtain early fi rst days to weeks after the eruption) vertical pro fi le measurements of the volcanic plume. access to airspace and facilities can be an issue particularly for low-latitude and southern hemispheric eruptions. hence, successfully obtaining early measurements in the tropics depends on developing cooperative relationships with science groups in these countries and preparatory exercise of the use of those facilities prior to a major volcanic event.
Who funded the work?
the uk department of international development (dfid
What organization are Andrew Ochieng and Brian Otiende associated with?
african centre for technology studies (acts
TERI stand for what?
the energy and resources institute
acknowledgements the work reported here is an output from a project funded by the uk department of international development (dfid) for the benefit of developing countries. the views expressed are not necessarily those of dfid. we are very grateful to simon anderson for guidance and advice. we also acknowledge the inputs made by andrew ochieng and brian otiende of the african centre for technology studies (acts), nairobi, kenya, and ms kadambari anantram, ms sreeja nair, dr vivek kumar and ms ulka kelkar of the energy and resources institute (teri) new delhi, india. we also thank norbert henninger, timothy mitchell, simon carter, jenny olson, robin reid, ruth doherty, declan conway, john lynam, richard washington and ade freeman. all errors and omissions, and all views expressed, remain solely our responsibility.
Stabilization of CO2 emissions?
stabilization of co2 emissions at near-current levels will not lead to stabilization of co2 atmospheric concentration
After stabilization of the atmospheric concentration of CO2 and other greenhouse gases?
after stabilization of the atmospheric concentration of co2 and other greenhouse gases, surface air temperature is projected to continue to rise by a few tenths of a degree per century for a century or more, while sea level is projected to continue to rise for many centuries (see figure spm-5
stabilization of co2 emissions at near-current levels will not lead to stabilization of co2 atmospheric concentration, whereas stabilization of emissions of shorter lived greenhouse gases such as ch4 leads, within decades, to stabilization of their atmospheric concentrations. stabilization of co2 concentrations at any level requires eventual reduction of global co2 net emissions to a small fraction of the current emission level. the lower the chosen level for stabilization, the sooner the decline in global net co2 emissions needs to begin (see figure spm-5). after stabilization of the atmospheric concentration of co2 and other greenhouse gases, surface air temperature is projected to continue to rise by a few tenths of a degree per century for a century or more, while sea level is projected to continue to rise for many centuries (see figure spm-5). the slow transport of heat into the oceans and slow response of ice sheets means that long periods are required to reach a new climate system equilibrium. some changes in the climate system, plausible beyond the 21st century, would be effectively irreversible. for example, major melting of the ice sheets (see question 4) and fundamental changes in the ocean circulation pattern (see question 4) could not be reversed over * * * *
What didn't the study also consider?
the study also did not consider the residual damages: it assumed perfect adaptation to maintain a notional standard of service, so under the study assumptions arguably these residual damages could be assumed to remain approximately constant. however, because adaptation will be imperfect, residual damages would not be zero in practice
What does the Kirshen study provide?
the kirshen study provided an estimate of the public investment costs (by water suppliers, not users) to meet socio-economic and climate changes by 2050
By 2080, unmitigated climate change will increase or decrease the cost of providing additional irrigation?
by 2080, unmitigated climate change would increase the cost of providing additional irrigation
the use of an average climate-change scenario, rather than individual scenarios, may give a biased - probably downwards - estimate of the costs of climate change. the mean response from several climate scenarios is likely to be higher than the response from the mean of the scenarios, because the loss function is asymmetrical: a reduction in availability is worth more than an increase in availability. the study also did not consider the residual damages: it assumed perfect adaptation to maintain a notional standard of service, so under the study assumptions arguably these residual damages could be assumed to remain approximately constant. however, because adaptation will be imperfect, residual damages would not be zero in practice. changes in operating costs may also be substantial (in the california example above, annual operating costs increased by $0.4 billion/year due to climate change), and are not included because the focus of the study was on investment needs. in the opposite direction, the study focused on the costs of augmenting supplies; demand-side measures to maintain a reliable supply-demand balance are typically cheaper than supply-side measures. finally, the kirshen study provided an estimate of the public investment costs (by water suppliers, not users) to meet socio-economic and climate changes by 2050. the unfccc report assumed that 25% of these costs represents the fraction attributable to climate change alone; the basis for this assumption is not clear. it is not possible to assess the extent of potential under-estimation of the costs of maintaining water supplies without undertaking a more detailed analysis taking into account multiple scenarios and working at the finer spatial scale. it is also important to emphasise that the adaptation-cost figure characterises only the cost of adapting to water shortage. it does not include costs of flood management, storm drainage, water quality enhancement, hydropower generation, navigation or maintaining ecosystem services. the irrigation study (fischer et al., 2007) simulated future irrigation demands without climate change and under two climate models and two emissions scenarios (representing 'no policy' (sres a2) and 'mitigation' (sres b1)), using the fao agro-ecological zones model. again, they used a top-down methodology similar in principle to that outlined above. by 2080, unmitigated climate change would increase the cost of providing additional irrigation - in terms of capital infrastructure and operating costs - by $24-27 billion per year; the mitigation scenario reduced these costs by $8-10 billion per year. the 'unmitigated' adaptation costs are considerably higher than the approximately $11 billion calculated by kirshen/unfccc for water supply as a whole, but the fischer et al. figure relates to 2080 rather than spend to 2030. there is currently no global-scale information on the relative costs of adaptation among the different components of water resources management. however, it is highly likely that costs of storm and river flood management will be very significant (globally), even if costs of water quality management, navigation enhancement and ecosystem protection are not large relative to the costs of maintaining water supplies.
What does (SSS) stands for?
sea surface salinity
What do the sea surface salinity (SSS) bias patterns reflect?
as for sst biases, the sea surface salinity (sss) bias patterns reflect accuracy of the coupling between the ocean and other climate model components, as well as ocean circulation, with primary importance placed on the hydrological cycle
How is the global mean ocean salinity modified?
as the ocean models in cm2.1 and cm3 use real water fluxes, the global mean ocean salinity is modified through changes in ocean volume (through precipitation, evaporation, river runoff, and sea ice formation/melt), as well as exchange of salt with the sea ice model
as for sst biases, the sea surface salinity (sss) bias patterns reflect accuracy of the coupling between the ocean and other climate model components, as well as ocean circulation, with primary importance placed on the hydrological cycle. given the very different feedback mechanisms impacting sst versus sss (see, e.g., griffies et al. 2009b), it is useful to investigate both fields when characterizing the physical integrity of a simulation. as the ocean models in cm2.1 and cm3 use real water fluxes, the global mean ocean salinity is modified through changes in ocean volume (through precipitation, evaporation, river runoff, and sea ice formation/melt), as well as exchange of salt with the sea ice model. these effects are relatively small, thus leaving the global mean salinity throughout the simulations quite close to the initial value of 34.72 psu taken from steele et al. (2001). however, as for temperature, patterns of change in ocean salinity are important, as they provide a signature of problems with the boundary hydrological forcing and surface ocean currents. figure 7 shows the climatological sss difference from observations taken over model years 1981-2000. we now identify certain notable features in the sss bias maps.
Why it is suggested that adaptation is still in the very early stages ?
the reason is that communities face considerable obstacles to adaptation, both in developed and developing nations (127
How can overcome the Social, economic, institutional, informational, cultural, and other barriers that delay adaptation or make it less cost-effective or efficient ?
that can be overcome with concerted effort, creative management, change of thinking, and prioritization, as well as with related shifts in resources, land uses, and institutions (158
What are the most important challenges repeatedly found ?
among the most important challenges repeatedly found are intraand cross institutional or governance barriers, impediments related to the attitudes of involved actors (policy makers, planners, and affected stakeholders), values, motivations, and budgetary constraints
there is emerging evidence from all regions of the world that coastal communities are beginning to adapt (127). even case examples from highly developed nations and some of the richest communities there suggest, however, that adaptation is still in the very early stages (137, 152, 153). the reason is that communities face considerable obstacles to adaptation, both in developed and developing nations (127), and our understanding of these barriers has significantly improved in recent years (23, 154-157). social, economic, institutional, informational, cultural, and other barriers--those mutable obstacles that delay adaptation or make it less cost-effective or efficient but that can be overcome with concerted effort, creative management, change of thinking, and prioritization, as well as with related shifts in resources, land uses, and institutions (158)-- have been examined specifically in the coastal sector (159-162). among the most important challenges repeatedly found are intraand cross institutional or governance barriers, impediments related to the attitudes of involved actors (policy makers, planners, and affected stakeholders), values, motivations, and budgetary constraints. informational, communicational, political, and public support barriers also play important roles (160). although information is clearly important, it matters differently at certain
What is the problem with the process of applying for CER credit?
the problem with this highly complemented and flexible system is that it can be gamed (sovacool and brown, 2009). only 300 of the thousands of cdm projects that are under way have received accreditation by the united nations
How would a developing country afford construction of a wind farm?
the country applies for credit in the form of certified emissions reductions (cers) that it can sell to industrialized nations wishing to buy cers as authorized by the kyoto protocol (lohmann, 2008). the income from selling the cers can then, in principle, be allocated to the construction of the wind farm, which is more expensive as well as being carbon neutral
this process works approximately in this fashion: a developing country decides to forgo the construction of a power plant using coal as the energy source and emitting substantial greenhouse gases as a result. it plans to build a wind farm that is more "carbon friendly". the country applies for credit in the form of certified emissions reductions (cers) that it can sell to industrialized nations wishing to buy cers as authorized by the kyoto protocol (lohmann, 2008). the income from selling the cers can then, in principle, be allocated to the construction of the wind farm, which is more expensive as well as being carbon neutral. the problem with this highly complemented and flexible system is that it can be gamed (sovacool and brown, 2009). only 300 of the thousands of cdm projects that are under way have received accreditation by the united nations. as it turns out, a large proportion of the cers relate to trifluoromethane, hfc-23, a greenhouse gas that is not associated with transportation or power generation but is used as a refrigerant--and is a highly profitable greenhouse gas to claim to have "averted". as sovacool and brown (2009) conclude, the cdm has unfortunately made hfc-23 abatement too profitable.
How many centimeters is the sea level predicted to rise?
the predicted rise in sea level of 50 centimetres, together with storm surges, would render uninhabitable the coastal and low-lying areas where many squatter communities are located
How many square kilometers is does the city of Rio de Janeiro cover?
rio de janeiro is a city of just over 10 million people located on the southeastern coast of brazil, and covers an area of 1,171 square kilometres
What characteristics does the city of Mumbai posses that have created a "stress bundle"?
in addition, a "stress bundle" composed of population (large and growing), projected sea-level rise, and economic stresses converge to create some particularly problematic issues for mumbai
coastal/marine issues a 1996 teri study put the cost to mumbai of a one-metre sea-level rise at us$ 71 billion.(35) the study concluded that us$ 24 million invested in protection against sea-level rise would reduce the economic impact by about us$ 33 billion dollars. the predicted rise in sea level of 50 centimetres, together with storm surges, would render uninhabitable the coastal and low-lying areas where many squatter communities are located. moreover, shifting would likely occur in the sub-surface of the landfill areas, resulting in many buildings becoming uninhabitable due to structural instability. mumbai's landfill areas contain a mixture of high value commercial properties, such as the stock exchange, important public facilities, such as the main train stations and train lines, numerous high value residential high-rises and a number of squatter communities. the few hills, formerly islands, that were not levelled to create the landfill that the majority of the city was built on, comprise mostly upscale residential areas long-prized for their relative immunity to flooding. these areas lack the commercial potential to take up slack should the landfill areas go into decline. however, provided that sea-level rise occurs gradually, and is recognized early enough, mumbai might be able to mitigate damage, perhaps by shifting much of the old city to the adjacent suburbs or to navi mumbai. overall vulnerability what emerges from using the extended vulnerability framework is the identification of a set of stresses and perturbations that collectively converge to create great "stress bundles" for mumbai. an example is the convergence of extreme rainfall and floods. mumbai's various characteristics of topography (flat), geology (unconsolidated fill material), numerous wetlands and flood-prone areas, the city's building conditions (not meeting building codes, squatter dwellings, previously flood-damaged buildings), poor sanitation and poor waste treatment and removal capabilities together create a particular "bundle" of stresses that "collides" with the set of socio-environmental conditions of mumbai, such that vulnerabilities emerge for the system. in addition, a "stress bundle" composed of population (large and growing), projected sea-level rise, and economic stresses converge to create some particularly problematic issues for mumbai. this is because of a set of characteristics for mumbai that include the lack of dykes and other coastal armaments for dealing with sea-level rise, weak disaster preparedness at the scale of sea-level rise, building conditions (not meeting building codes, squatter dwellings, previously flood-damaged buildings), and low incomes that do not allow the city to improve building conditions to the level required, nor to better develop and fund disaster preparedness. mumbai is thus facing threats that local authorities have very little ability to control, dampen or mitigate. this suggests that a reinforcing spiral could emerge for this set of issues, where increasing population comes together with sea-level rise and a stressed economy to further damage already weak buildings, undermine efforts to improve disaster preparedness and build coastal armaments; and these, in turn, further erode the economy while sea-level rise marches on. mumbai's informal coping capacities, as a result of notably strong social networks and cooperation, emerge as important parts of mumbai's resistance and resilience in the face of stresses. these informal coping systems are expected to help reduce vulnerabilities to some degree for both sets of issues that emerge from this preliminary analysis. yet, by themselves, these informal coping capacities appear quite inadequate to meet the challenges from climate hazards and population size and growth that now face mumbai. mumbai's overall vulnerability appears to be high. while the city is relatively prosperous compared to the rest of india, and it does have an elaborate disaster management plan in place, the challenges posed by climate change, especially flooding and sub-surface shifting in landfill areas, are unlikely to be met effectively. in particular, sub-surface shifting of the type that mumbai might face could well overwhelm the adaptive abilities of any city, and particularly one with some of the other critical issues that mumbai now faces. b. rio de janeiro rio de janeiro is a city of just over 10 million people located on the southeastern coast of brazil, and covers an area of 1,171 square kilometres. guanabara bay, where rio is situated, faces almost due south. rio is the second most populous city in brazil, after sao paulo, and ranks second only to sao paulo in industrial production. this erstwhile capital of brazil is known for its beautiful beaches and the granite hills that rise dramatically from sea level to more than 1,000 metres. yet rio faces significant environmental sustainability
What are the peculiarities of The El Nino-Southern Oscillation?
the el nino-southern oscillation (enso) is a coupled atmospheric-oceanic phenomenon that has global manifestations and occurs approximately every two to ten years
What the oceanographic component of ENSO has been commonly called?
the oceanographic component of enso has been commonly called el nino
What is one of the effects of El Nino?
one effect of el nino is that water warmer than normal is carried to the surface off the coast of south america (philander, 1990
the el nino-southern oscillation (enso) is a coupled atmospheric-oceanic phenomenon that has global manifestations and occurs approximately every two to ten years. the oceanographic component of enso has been commonly called el nino. however, in the climate research and prediction community, as well as in the media, el nino is used interchangeably to represent the enso phenomenon and the entire suite of climate anomalies associated with warm phases of enso (likewise, la nina is commonly used in reference to anomalously cold episodes). one effect of el nino is that water warmer than normal is carried to the surface off the coast of south america (philander, 1990). for instance, coastal temperatures anomalies as high as 10*c have been recorded off the coast of peru (sharp and mclain, 1993).5
How was the the metapopulation size at each time step (year) was defined?
the metapopulation size at each time step (year) was defined as the total number of individuals in all patches at that time step
Name the first set of population models created for each spatial model?
first, each of the 36 speciesspecific spatial structures (for each of the 3 scenarios) was modeled with the correct (matching) life history type of the species (e.g., indigo snake matched to snake life history
We created two sets of population models for each spatial model:
second, each speciesspecific spatial model was run with a randomly selected glh model that is mis-matched from the species on which the spatial model was based (e.g., indigo snake with tortoise life history
metapopulation simulations combining each specific realized population model (sampled from a glh model) with one of the 36 species-specific spatial structures resulted in a metapopulation model whose spatial structure changed in time as a result of changes in habitat. each of these metapopulation models started the simulation with several occupied patches. the metapopulation size at each time step (year) was defined as the total number of individuals in all patches at that time step. extinction was defined as the metapopulation size reaching zero before or in the year 2100. extinction risk for each model was calculated as the proportion of replicates (see below) going extinct. we created two sets of population models for each spatial model: first, each of the 36 speciesspecific spatial structures (for each of the 3 scenarios) was modeled with the correct (matching) life history type of the species (e.g., indigo snake matched to snake life history). second, each speciesspecific spatial model was run with a randomly selected glh model that is mis-matched from the species on which the spatial model was based (e.g., indigo snake with tortoise life history). our comparison of extinction risk under climate change versus under no climate change (i.e., estimated mean extinction risk of 23+-7% under the policy scenario, 28+-7% under the reference scenario, and <1 percent without climate change; standard errors calculated by treating individual enms (species) as independent sampling units) included only the matched simulations since the aim was to estimate extinction risk for the set of species included in the study. however, both matched and mis-matched simulations were included in the subsequent analyses in which we aimed to identify variables that can predict climate-related risk (i.e., figs. 1 and 2). our reasoning behind including the mis-matched simulations was two-fold: 1. to minimize the influence of species as a predictor (i.e., to reduce the 'species effect' of highly correlated or dependent variables); and 2. to enhance the coverage of life history parameter space for each unique patch structure. we explored the robustness of this reasoning
What is the typical migrant distance of a Lapwing?
to 500 km (lapwing
How long is the migration period of a ringed bird in the Netherlands?
of birds ringed in the netherlands (april-july) and recovered during spring and autumn migration (march-april and august-october) at least 100 km from their ringing site
Which statement best shows that climate change causes shorter migratory periods?
for example, if this probability went up in the netherlands while going down in france, a reduction of recovery distances will be found without any underlying biological change
the most important methodological explanation for a reduction in recovery distances is a change over time in the spatial distribution of reporting probability of a dead ringed bird. for example, if this probability went up in the netherlands while going down in france, a reduction of recovery distances will be found without any underlying biological change. for such explanations to hold we should find that for species which typically migrate over short distances we would find another pattern of change than for longer distance migrants. we can test this hypothesis by fitting the interaction between the typical recovery distance for a species (the distance for 1984 - see 'methods') and year. although the typical distance varied from 10 (tawny owl) to 500 km (lapwing) there was no significant interaction with year (table 2) and thus there was no effect of typical recovery distance on the strength of the decline in distance. in a second test we analysed the log distance of recoveries of two long distance migrants, the pied flycatcher ficedula hypoleuca and the reed warbler acrocephalus scirpaceus ), of birds ringed in the netherlands (april-july) and recovered during spring and autumn migration (march-april and august-october) at least 100 km from their ringing site in southerly directions and north of 35 1 n. these species migrate to africa and if the decline in recovery distance was due to
Who are the authors of the submitted article?
ross garnaut, stephen howes, frank jotzo, and peter sheehan
What is the focus of the article?
the focus here is on the stern report--notably because it provides a conventional approach, but also because its conclusions have been widely taken up by politicians and commentators, to the extent that it has become the new conventional wisdom on the economics of climate change
According to the article, which two other dimensions of Stern's arithmetic are questionable?
there are two other dimensions of stern's arithmetic which are questionable: the costs and the discount rate
the assumptions about growth and consumption are, unfortunately, not the only problems with the conventional approach to the economics of climate change. please see the article by ross garnaut, stephen howes, frank jotzo, and peter sheehan in this issue (garnaut et al ., 2008). the focus here is on the stern report--notably because it provides a conventional approach, but also because its conclusions have been widely taken up by politicians and commentators, to the extent that it has become the new conventional wisdom on the economics of climate change. in addition to the possibility that the growth rate may be lower (possibly much lower) later in the century (and hence the predicted gdp measured loss of perhaps 5-25 per cent gdp by the end of the century may be higher), there are two other dimensions of stern's arithmetic which are questionable: the costs and the discount rate.
We have shown that extraordinarily rapid emission are what?
needed to stay close to the 1 u c scenario
In absence of extraordinary actions, what happens?
t is likely that growing climate disruptions will lead to a surge of interest in ''geo-engineering'' designed to minimize human-made climate change
we have shown that extraordinarily rapid emission reductions are needed to stay close to the 1 u c scenario. in absence of extraordinary actions, it is likely that growing climate disruptions will lead to a surge of interest in ''geo-engineering'' designed to minimize human-made climate change [223]. such efforts must remove atmospheric co2, if they are to address direct co2 effects such as ocean acidification as well as climate change. schemes such as adding sulfuric acid aerosols to the stratosphere to reflect sunlight [224], an attempt to mask one pollutant with another, is a temporary band-aid for a problem that will last for millennia; besides it fails to address ocean acidification and may have other unintended consequences [225].
What is the report mainly based on?
this report is mainly based on the consensus fi ndings from the 2007 ipcc report
What may happen to many of the parameters?
many parameters might worsen, leading to an increasing risk of abrupt or irreversible climatic shifts
What would be the consequence of 2 deg warming?
temperature rises above 2degc will be challenging for contemporary societies to cope with and will increase the level of climate disruption through the rest of the century
this report is mainly based on the consensus fi ndings from the 2007 ipcc report. recent scientifi c fi ndings, however, increased the concerns arising from the ipcc report. in march, 2009, in copenhagen (denmark), an international scientifi c congress on climate change was attended by more than 2500 delegates from about 80 countries.26 this congress raised several concerns: * recent observations confi rm that, because of high rates of observed emissions, the worst-case ipcc scenario trajectories (or even worse) are being realised for parameters such as global mean surface temperature, sea level rise, ocean and ice-sheet dynamics, ocean acidifi cation, and extreme climatic events. many parameters might worsen, leading to an increasing risk of abrupt or irreversible climatic shifts. * societies are highly vulnerable to even modest climate change, with poor nations and communities especially at risk. temperature rises above 2degc will be challenging for contemporary societies to cope with and will increase the level of climate disruption through the rest of the century.
What must every planning department have in order to deal with the technical issues?
every planning department must have a trained sustainability officer to deal with the technical issues
What should be compulsory for developers to provide, as it relates to refurbishments and developments?
it should also be compulsory for developers to provide a report on the future costs for the eventual refurbishment and demolition of developments
Can refurbishments be expensive?
refurbishment can be hugely expensive
buildings will have to meet the required standard before they are given planning permission, not afterwards. as the climate changes buildings will have to incrementally upgrade their defences against the sun and wind, with awnings, shades, solar systems, shuttering features and even wind turbines, and it will be necessary for the planning organizations to decide the rules for their generic application, and to retrain planning officers in relation to their applications. every planning department must have a trained sustainability officer to deal with the technical issues. there is also a clear need for a new generation of planning tools that can be used to systematically assess issues of infrastructural system capacity at the settlement level. 11 a range of tools is now being widely used for the assessment of carbon emissions from settlements and particularly where these have plannerand public-friendly outputs, in the form of maps. one such model is the decorum model, which provides a bottom - up tool for mapping building energy use and emissions. using such tools councils will eventually be able to insist on developments reducing carbon emissions locally by the required amount to compensate for the emissions increase caused by the new development. 12 it should also be compulsory for developers to provide a report on the future costs for the eventual refurbishment and demolition of developments. as it stands the refurbishment of problematic building types such as tower blocks generally ends up with the council, which has received little previous benefit. refurbishment can be hugely expensive. in addition, some buildings are incapable of cost-effective demolition and should never have been built. buildings should be designed such that they can be demolished effectively and planners should be trained to understand the demolition implications of buildings before they give permission for them to be built. the disaster mitigation services in england and wales also need urgent revision to deal with emerging climate-related events (the system in scotland has already been revised). neither the emergency powers act 1920 nor the civil defence act of 1948, both affected through the planning system, has been updated in england and wales since the end of the cold war. under the civil contingencies bill, local councils in england and wales, including planning departments, will form core ' local resilience forums ' tasked with emergency planning, providing information to the public, risk management advice and ensuring that businesses continue to operate. for the first time councils in england and wales will have a statutory duty with respect to emergency planning as ' first tier responders ' although many see this bill as potentially impinging on civil liberties. 13 county metropolitan, unitary and london borough councils, unlike districts, receive direct funding in the form of a civil defence grant but its value, even in the face of climate change, has been falling year on year. in 2000 it rose from ps 5 million a year to ps 19 million, and has stayed at this level ever since. studies have shown that the actual expenditure on emergencies in england and wales is over twice this, and flood-prone regions are disproportionately penalized, particularly by flooding. these sums cover facilities such as the serious casualty access teams, chemical spills and mobile decontamination centres, the latter developed for nuclear industry leakages. some counties, at the hub of transport networks, also bear an undue burden of emergency planning costs.
Paraphrase the background of this study.
background: although controlled laboratory experiments have been conducted to demonstrate the sensitivity of allergenic pollen production to future climatic change (ie, increased co and temperature), no in situ data are available
Paraphrase the objective of this study.
objective: the purpose of this investigation was to assess, under realistic conditions, the impact of climatic change on pollen production of common ragweed, a ubiquitous weed occurring in disturbed sites and the principal source of pollen associated with seasonal allergenic rhinitis
Paraphrase the methods of this study.
methods: we used an existing temperature/co gradient between urban and rural areas to examine the quantitative and qualitative aspects of ragweed growth and pollen production. results: for 2000 and 2001, average daily (24-hour) values of co concentration and air temperature within an urban environment were 30% to 31% and
background: although controlled laboratory experiments have been conducted to demonstrate the sensitivity of allergenic pollen production to future climatic change (ie, increased co and temperature), no in situ data are available. objective: the purpose of this investigation was to assess, under realistic conditions, the impact of climatic change on pollen production of common ragweed, a ubiquitous weed occurring in disturbed sites and the principal source of pollen associated with seasonal allergenic rhinitis. methods: we used an existing temperature/co gradient between urban and rural areas to examine the quantitative and qualitative aspects of ragweed growth and pollen production. results: for 2000 and 2001, average daily (24-hour) values of co concentration and air temperature within an urban environment were 30% to 31% and
What other characteristic is not measured in this study? Downward-facing nostrils and / or large shells
other features, not measured in this study, such as greater airflow velocity (clement and gordts, 2005), downward facing nares and/or large turbinates also influence airflow turbulence
What should be taken into account about nasal cavity shape requirements? They are sometimes contradictory
it is important to point out that the nasal cavity shape requirements to enhance one or the other of the above properties are sometimes contradictory
Sometimes what is the contradiction of the shape requirements of the nasal cavity to increase one or the other of the above properties? The contradiction is that turbulence is increased by a larger cavity, while a narrow cavity increases the relationship between surface and volume.
it is important to point out that the nasal cavity shape requirements to enhance one or the other of the above properties are sometimes contradictory, e.g., turbulence is enhanced by a wider cavity, whereas a narrow cavity increases the surface to volume ratio
m.l. noback et al. american journal of physical anthropology other features, not measured in this study, such as greater airflow velocity (clement and gordts, 2005), downward facing nares and/or large turbinates also influence airflow turbulence (churchill et al., 2004). it is important to point out that the nasal cavity shape requirements to enhance one or the other of the above properties are sometimes contradictory, e.g., turbulence is enhanced by a wider cavity, whereas a narrow cavity increases the surface to volume ratio. with so many different functional processes at work, the nasal cavity will likely show a compromise morphology (churchill et al., 2004).
What does SASE stand for?
the snow and avalanche study establishment (sase
How often is the snowfall collected over a snow stack during a snowstorm?
the snowfall is collected over a snow stack (a plane surface with a 1 m measuring stick perpendicular to the surface) every 3 hours during a snowstorm
the snow and avalanche study establishment (sase) is involved in weather and avalanche forecasting for the western himalaya. the observational network of sase includes  60 surface observatories and three upper-air stations spread over the western himalaya. data are collected from these stations twice a day (at 0830 h and 1730 h indian standard time (ist)). the maximum and minimum temperatures are collected using maximum and minimum thermometers and the diurnal mean is calculated by taking a simple average of these two values. the snowfall is collected over a snow stack (a plane surface with a 1 m measuring stick perpendicular to the surface) every 3 hours during a snowstorm, otherwise at 0830 h and 1730 h ist. the 24 hour accumulated snow depth was measured and used in this study. different snow and meteorological data have been collected over these stations and archived at sase for different periods of time. in the present study, the longterm observed wintertime data (november-april) of maximum, minimum and mean temperature, snowfall, cloud percentage, number of occurrences of western disturbances and number of snowfall days at 18 sase station locations, situated in different ranges of the western himalaya, are considered. it should be noted that data for different parameters are available for different time periods. only years when consistent data are present for all the stations are considered here. no effort has been made to interpolate or fill in the gaps due to missing data in any month or year. figure 1 is a map of the study region showing the meteorological stations and mountain ranges. in order to study temperature change over the western himalaya, the anomaly of seasonal minimum, maximum and mean temperature was calculated to determine whether there is any signal of warming over the region. the total seasonal snow depth was used to study the temporal trend of snowfall. the cloud percentage was calculated, noting that 8 octa of cloud is equivalent to 100%. the number of western disturbances was obtained from the archives of sase.
What is the objective of introducing a sludge disinfection stage in sewage treatment?
the objective of introducing a sludge disinfection stage in the sewage treatment works is to guarantee a low level of pathogens in the sludge, such that, when it is disposed of on land, will not cause health risks to the population and to the workers that will handle it and also negative impacts to the environment
What will depend on the final disposal alternative to be adopted?
however, the need to include a complementary sludge disinfection system will depend on the final disposal alternative to be adopted
What is implied if sludge is released in public parks, gardens, or recycling in agriculture?
the application of sludge in public parks and gardens or its recycling in agriculture implies a higher sanitary level than other disposal alternatives, such as landfills
the objective of introducing a sludge disinfection stage in the sewage treatment works is to guarantee a low level of pathogens in the sludge, such that, when it is disposed of on land, will not cause health risks to the population and to the workers that will handle it and also negative impacts to the environment. however, the need to include a complementary sludge disinfection system will depend on the final disposal alternative to be adopted. the application of sludge in public parks and gardens or its recycling in agriculture implies a higher sanitary level than other disposal alternatives, such as landfills. these requirements can be met by a sludge disinfection process or by temporary restrictions to public use and access. overview of sludge treatment and disposal 271 some stabilisation processes of the organic matter in the sludge also lead to a reduction of pathogenic microorganisms, producing a sanitarily safe sludge. others reduce the pathogenic microorganisms to levels lower than the detection limits, after the stabilisation of the organic matter, in a complementary sludge treatment stage. the most important processes are described below.
Do all species germinate in the same temperatures?
some species tended to germinate earlier in the season under warmer temperatures, while others germinated later in the season under colder conditions
Were there any correlations to germinations and amount of abundancy?
patterns of change in abundance corresponded with these differences in germination niches, even for those species whose abundance patterns were influenced more by later life history stages
Which side of the graph includes the larger precipitation events and higher temperatures?
the first axis for the germination cohort ordination was positively correlated with year and average cohort physiological pc score, and was negatively correlated with cumulative growing season precipitation before germination and temperature during germination (fig. 4). in other words, cohorts with species that germinated following larger precipitation events with higher temperatures are located on the left side of the ordination graph, while cohorts with species with high physiological pc scores (low rgr and high wue) that germinated following smaller precipitation events and lower temperatures are on the right side of the figure
some species tended to germinate earlier in the season under warmer temperatures, while others germinated later in the season under colder conditions (fig. 3, supporting information fig. s5). patterns of change in abundance corresponded with these differences in germination niches, even for those species whose abundance patterns were influenced more by later life history stages (figs. 2d, e and 3). for example, e. cicutarium a species that was best able to germinate in cool temperatures, increased over time, while plantago insularis a species that germinated best in warmer temperatures, decreased (fig. 3a: this pattern was still significant when the one outlier was removed). the first axis for the germination cohort ordination was positively correlated with year and average cohort physiological pc score, and was negatively correlated with cumulative growing season precipitation before germination and temperature during germination (fig. 4). in other words, cohorts with species that germinated following larger precipitation events with higher temperatures are located on the left side of the ordination graph, while cohorts with species with high physiological pc scores (low rgr and high wue) that germinated following smaller precipitation events and lower temperatures are on the right side of the figure. this
Explain about spring phenology?
the change in spring phenology is recognized to exert a major influence on carbon balance dynamics in temperate ecosystems
Explain large inter-method variance?
the large inter-method variance was notably observed in arid and semi-arid vegetation types. our results also showed that change in vegetation green-up date is more closely correlated with temperature than with precipitation
Explain vegetation?
moreover, the sign of the trends in vegetation green-up date derived from the five methods were broadly consistent spatially and for different vegetation types, but with large differences in the magnitude of the trend
the change in spring phenology is recognized to exert a major influence on carbon balance dynamics in temperate ecosystems. over the past several decades, several studies focused on shifts in spring phenology; however, large uncertainties still exist, and one under-studied source could be the method implemented in retrieving satellite-derived spring phenology. to account for this potential uncertainty, we conducted a multi-method investigation to quantify changes in vegetation green-up date from 1982 to 2010 over temperate china, and to characterize climatic controls on spring phenology. over temperate china, the five methods estimated that the vegetation green-up onset date advanced, on average, at a rate of 1.3 +- 0.6 days per decade (ranging from 0.4 to 1.9 days per decade) over the last 29 years. moreover, the sign of the trends in vegetation green-up date derived from the five methods were broadly consistent spatially and for different vegetation types, but with large differences in the magnitude of the trend. the large inter-method variance was notably observed in arid and semi-arid vegetation types. our results also showed that change in vegetation green-up date is more closely correlated with temperature than with precipitation. however, the temperature sensitivity of spring vegetation green-up date became higher as precipitation increased, implying that precipitation is an important regulator of the response of vegetation spring phenology to change in temperature. this intricate linkage between spring phenology and precipitation must be taken into account in current phenological models which are mostly driven by temperature. keywords climate change, phenology, spring vegetation green-up date, temperature sensitivity of spring phenology, china
Who estimated the continuity of economic growth?
hoffert et al 1 estimated that if economic growth continues as it has in the past, 10-30 tw of carbon-neutral primary power must be deployed by 2050 to meet global energy demand while stabilizing co2 concentrations at 450 ppmv, and that even more rapid deployment of new technologies would need to occur in the second half of this century
what are the two examples of fossil fuels that emit greenhouse gases when burned in conventional power plants?
fossil fuels, such as coal and natural gas, emit greenhouse gases when burned in conventional power plants
What has the concern about climate change motivated?
concern about climate change has motivated the deployment of lower-ghg-emission (lge) power plants, including wind, solar photovoltaics (pv), nuclear, solar thermal, hydroelectric, carbon capture and storage, natural gas and other energy technologies with low ghg emissions
hoffert et al 1 estimated that if economic growth continues as it has in the past, 10-30 tw of carbon-neutral primary power must be deployed by 2050 to meet global energy demand while stabilizing co2 concentrations at 450 ppmv, and that even more rapid deployment of new technologies would need to occur in the second half of this century. pacala and socolow 2 have suggested that a broad portfolio of existing technologies could put us on a trajectory toward stabilization in the first half of this century. no previous study, however, has predicted the climate effects of energy system transitions. fossil fuels, such as coal and natural gas, emit greenhouse gases when burned in conventional power plants. concern about climate change has motivated the deployment of lower-ghg-emission (lge) power plants, including wind, solar photovoltaics (pv), nuclear, solar thermal, hydroelectric, carbon capture and storage, natural gas and other energy technologies with low ghg emissions. electricity generation accounts for approximately 39% of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions 3 4 ]. because lge power plants have lower operating emissions, cumulative emissions over the lifetime of the plants are lower than for conventional fossil-fueled plants of equivalent capacity. lge power plants typically require greater upfront emissions to build, however. consequently,
mention few characteristics of anaerobic processes?
several favourable characteristics of the anaerobic processes were highlighted, such as low cost, operational simplicity, no energy consumption and low production of solids
In which countries high-rate anaerobic reactors are commonly used?
nowadays, it can be said that the high-rate anaerobic reactors used for treatment of domestic sewage are a consolidated technology in some warm-climate countries, especially in brazil, colombia and india
who contributed to the consolidation and dissemination of the anaerobic technology ?
undoubtedly, a great contribution to the consolidation and dissemination of the anaerobic technology for the treatment of domestic sewage came from the brazilian national research programme on basic sanitation, prosab
a deep discussion on the evolution and applicability of the anaerobic technology for the treatment of domestic sewage was presented in chapter 23, where several favourable characteristics of the anaerobic processes were highlighted, such as low cost, operational simplicity, no energy consumption and low production of solids. these advantages, associated with favourable environmental conditions in warm-climate regions where high temperatures prevail practically throughout the year, have contributed to establish the anaerobic systems, particularly the uasb reactors, in an outstanding position. nowadays, it can be said that the high-rate anaerobic reactors used for treatment of domestic sewage are a consolidated technology in some warm-climate countries, especially in brazil, colombia and india, with several treatment systems operating in full scale (population equivalents from a few thousand up to around one million inhabitants). in brazil, practically all the wastewater treatment feasibility studies include anaerobic reactors as one of the main options. undoubtedly, a great contribution to the consolidation and dissemination of the anaerobic technology for the treatment of domestic sewage came from the brazilian national research programme on basic sanitation, prosab.
What percentage of UK petrol has to be biofuel?
from april 2008 all uk petrol had to have at least 2.5% biofuel content
What is the 2010 target for the percentage of biofuels?
europe is currently considering a 10% biofuels target for 2010
What are second generation biofuels?
second generation biofuels use fibrous non-food plants that can be grown on more marginal lands, thus providing less of a threat to food production
but since the first edition of this book a biomass revolution has occurred and the international rush to the use of biomass for transport has increasingly been blamed in part for the soaring food prices in 2008. from april 2008 all uk petrol had to have at least 2.5% biofuel content as a stepping stone to the uk 5% target for 2010. europe is currently considering a 10% biofuels target for 2010. first generation biofuels used crops such as corn, rapeseed, palm and soya. second generation biofuels use fibrous non-food plants that can be grown on more marginal lands, thus providing less of a threat to food production. however, the problem of fuel production displacing food production was so great that by july 2008, according to the international monetary fund (imf), it was responsible for 20 - 30% of the rise in food prices at that time, leading to a call to the un's food and agriculture organization (fao) to produce a set of international standards to ensure that plant-derived ethanol or biodiesel did not harm the food supply.
What are the challenges of Experimental research method in climate change?
the challenge in designing such a test is to simulate the interpersonal, dynamic processes theorized here; therefore, incorporation of adequate interaction opportunities among study participants and the hypothetical leader would be critical. quantitative field research complements experimental designs by providing higher levels of external validity
How psychological and work group climate measures differ?
the psychological and work group climate measures differ, in that work group climate is an aggregation of group members' psychological climate assessments
design. because of the complexity of the present model, i recommend using multiple methods to understand the proposed social, cognitive, and psychological processes. experimental research methods best control for potential threats to internal validity, such as group members' trait goal orientation and the complex nature of work in organizational settings. researchers can better control for effects on state goal orientation emanating from the objective task characteristics, such as the level, variety, and/or nature of the task and their potential relation to a particular achievement-oriented climate. the challenge in designing such a test is to simulate the interpersonal, dynamic processes theorized here; therefore, incorporation of adequate interaction opportunities among study participants and the hypothetical leader would be critical. quantitative field research complements experimental designs by providing higher levels of external validity. finding evidence of the proposed linkages in a natural setting would enhance the credibility of the types of leaders and climates described here as well as heighten the practical significance of this domain of research. demonstrating these relationships is contingent, in part, on ensuring adequate variability of the independent measures. because variability is often constrained when collecting data from one organization (e.g., schneider, smith, taylor, fleenor, 1998), researchers need to ensure that work group leaders have significant latitude in managing their work groups and/or consider collecting data from multiple organizations. another challenge in testing the present model in a field setting involves issues of control.4one obvious rival hypothesis is that the similarity found in group members' state goal orientation results from attraction- similarity processes, by which group members are attracted to and selected by work group leaders who hold the same trait goal orientation, which presumably has a high correlation with its state counterpart. to determine the effects of the processes described here independent from those involving attraction and selection, researchers would need to capture trait and state goal orientation assessments and partial out trait effects during statistical analyses. it would be advantageous to assess trait and state goal orientation at different points in time, in order to maximize differentiation between these two measures and enhance the psychometric quality of both measures. measurement and analysis. in a field setting, the multifocal nature of work, coupled with the possibility that more objective task characteristics may induce state goal orientations, introduces an additional level of complexity to measuring state goal orientation. one way to manage these challenges is through the use of a scenario-based approach. respondents would be presented with a variety of work situations, each featuring a unique task demand that is relevant to their work, and then would be asked to answer a series of questions designed to capture respondents' state goal orientation in each situation. this approach incorporates a richer representation of the variety of tasks facing organizational members, allows researchers to test for possible task effects on state goal orientation, and minimizes measurement error by providing respondents with a common frame (i.e., the task situation). in experimental settings, many of these task complexities can be simplified, and therefore measuring state goal orientation would simply involve assessing participants' goal orientation on the given experimental task(s). zohar and luria (2004) measured leaders' pattern orientation, pattern variability, and pattern simplicity through leader reports of how they would respond in a series of highly relevant work situations. given the conceptual proximity of leader achievement priority and climate (i.e., psychological, work group), their approach provides an innovative way to validly capture the complexity associated with leadership through an independent source of measurement, as psychological and work group climate are most appropriately assessed by work group members. the psychological and work group climate measures differ, in that work group climate is an aggregation of group members' psychological climate assessments (see bliese, 2000; schneider, bowen, ehrhart, holcombe, 2000). with regard to the quality of the lmx relationship, it is recommended that individual group members and/or work group leaders provide assessments to be consistent with prior research. the hypothesized relationships between these measures are best analyzed using some form of random coefficient modeling (e.g., hierarchical linear modeling) to properly address the multilevel nature of the data (see hofmann, griffin, gavin, 2000, for greater detail). regardless of the design used, it is likely that many of the core constructs could be captured from a single source; therefore, managing response bias becomes critical. one approach to minimizing response bias would be to capture outcome assessments from a separate source (e.g., work group leader, objective measure). to manage the same source bias potentially inherent in the psychological climate and state goal orientation measures, researchers could model common variance across these constructs, presumably attributable to the source of measurement, and partial
On which the review mainly focus?
building upon the six theoretical frameworks, this review focuses primarily on literature related to the four domains and 13 dimensions of school climate: (a) academic (i.e., teaching and learning, leadership, professional development); (b) community (i.e., quality of relationships, connectedness, respect for diversity, partnerships); (c) safety (i.e., social and emotional safety, physical safety, discipline and order); and (d) institutional environment (i.e., environmental adequacy, structural organization, availability of resources
Among the focused review which is identified as first?
after extensively reviewing the literature, the domains, dimensions, and indicators of school climate were first identified through discussion and consensus among the research team
What did the three coders done?
three coders read these articles and created a comprehensive list of indicators pertaining to school climate. the three coders achieved high inter-rater reliability in coding (i.e., k >0.90
building upon the six theoretical frameworks, this review focuses primarily on literature related to the four domains and 13 dimensions of school climate: (a) academic (i.e., teaching and learning, leadership, professional development); (b) community (i.e., quality of relationships, connectedness, respect for diversity, partnerships); (c) safety (i.e., social and emotional safety, physical safety, discipline and order); and (d) institutional environment (i.e., environmental adequacy, structural organization, availability of resources). after extensively reviewing the literature, the domains, dimensions, and indicators of school climate were first identified through discussion and consensus among the research team. initially, 50 of the most recent and highly cited school climate articles were selected to serve as guidelines for classification. three coders read these articles and created a comprehensive list of indicators pertaining to school climate. the three coders achieved high inter-rater reliability in coding (i.e., k >0.90). the original coders then categorized indicators into different dimensions and domains; disagreement over the categorization of certain indicators was resolved by either
What kind of depressions were identified in MOLA topography
quasi-circular depressions (qcds) were identified in mola topography
What  is the cumulative number for superimposed craters of diameter x km per 106km2.
n(x) is the cumulative number of superimposed craters of diameter x km per 106km2
quasi-circular depressions (qcds) were identified in mola topography and have been associated with both exposed and buried impact structures by frey [2006]. more recently, crustal thickness maps derived from gravity and topography neumann et al. 2004] have been used to identify circular thin-crust areas (ctas) as possible additional buried impact structures >300 km in diameter. the combined non-redundant population of qcds (both visible and buried) and ctas provides the best estimate available of the n(300) crater retention ages (cras) for large martian basins frey 2008]. n(x) is the cumulative number of superimposed craters of diameter x km per 106km2.. its
In addition to applying regional or time averages, what does planning for future climate change require?
planning for future climate change thus requires not simply the application of regional or temporal averaging, but depends on a deeper understanding of what drives the climate and its variability
How would improvements in global and regional models help?
improvements in global and regional models are undoubtedly critical, and will help climate prediction in many respects
In what situation are models likely not to be expected to provide accurate projections?
but to guide decisions in some locations, for example, the diameter of seattle's storm drain-pipes10, the models probably cannot be expected to provide accurate projections
planning for future climate change thus requires not simply the application of regional or temporal averaging, but depends on a deeper understanding of what drives the climate and its variability. improvements in global and regional models are undoubtedly critical, and will help climate prediction in many respects, and for some places (such as parts of mexico) better information on local climate change and adaptation can be expected as models improve. but to guide decisions in some locations, for example, the diameter of seattle's storm drain-pipes10, the models probably cannot be expected to provide accurate projections. whether projections subject to large and irreducible uncertainties remain helpful needs careful examination by the user23,24.
In addition to the effects of climate change on the atmospheric fate of methane, what is another major concern?
another major concern is the possible degradation or thaw of terrestrial permafrost due to climate change
What are the likely differences in time scales for the destabilization of marine hydrates in deep sediments vs shallow waters?
the time scales for destabilization of marine hydrates are not well understood and are likely to be very long for hydrates found in deep sediments but much shorter for hydrates below shallow waters, such as in the arctic ocean
What are the overall conclusions of this review and discussion of the effects of climate change on the atmospheric fate of methane and the possible thaw of terrestrial permafrost ?
overall, uncertainties are large, and it is difficult to be conclusive about the time scales and magnitudes of methane feedbacks, but significant increases in methane emissions are likely, and catastrophic emissions cannot be ruled out
we have reviewed the available scientific literature on how natural sources and the atmospheric fate of methane may be affected by future climate change. we discuss how processes governing methane wetland emissions, permafrost thawing, and destabilization of marine hydrates may affect the climate system. it is likely that methane wetland emissions will increase over the next century. uncertainties arise from the temperature dependence of emissions and changes in the geographical distribution of wetland areas. another major concern is the possible degradation or thaw of terrestrial permafrost due to climate change. the amount of carbon stored in permafrost, the rate at which it will thaw, and the ratio of methane to carbon dioxide emissions upon decomposition form the main uncertainties. large amounts of methane are also stored in marine hydrates, and they could be responsible for large emissions in the future. the time scales for destabilization of marine hydrates are not well understood and are likely to be very long for hydrates found in deep sediments but much shorter for hydrates below shallow waters, such as in the arctic ocean. uncertainties are dominated by the sizes and locations of the methane hydrate inventories, the time scales associated with heat penetration in the ocean and sediments, and the fate of methane released in the seawater. overall, uncertainties are large, and it is difficult to be conclusive about the time scales and magnitudes of methane feedbacks, but significant increases in methane emissions are likely, and catastrophic emissions cannot be ruled out. we also identify gaps in our scientific knowledge and make recommendations for future research and development in the context of earth system modeling.
What does GLM mean?
generalized linear models
What does GAM mean?
generalized additive models
What does CTA mean?
classification tree analysis
models relating species distributions to the seven bioclimatic variables were fitted using the biomod framework (see details in thuiller, 2003, 2004) on a random sample of the initial data (70%). for each species, generalized linear models (glm), generalized additive models (gam), classification tree analysis (cta) and artificial neural networks (ann) were calibrated. then each model for each species was evaluated on the remaining 30% of the initial data set using the values obtained either for cohen's k (cohen, 1960) and for the area under the curve (auc) of a receiver operating characteristic (roc) plot of sensitivity against (1-specificity) (swets, 1988). sensitivity is defined as the proportion of true positives correctly predicted, whereas specificity is the proportion of true negatives correctly predicted (fielding bell, 1997). we transformed the probability of occurrence from models into presence-absence using either a threshold maximizing the percentage of presence and absence correctly predicted (pearce ferrier, 2000) or the probability threshold that maximized its performance as measured by cohen's k (manel
What was the primary driver of increased fire activity in the Shrub Tundra Zone?
we suggest elsewhere (higuera et al. 2008) that a change in tundra fuel characteristics was the primary driver of increased fire activity in the shrub tundra zone
Did summer temperatures increase or decrease between the Herb and Shrub Tundra zones?
summer temperatures increased between the herb and shrub tundra zones
Did temperature alone cause fire frequencies to be similar to modern boreal forests?
although summer temperatures increased between the herb and shrub tundra zones, temperatures remained cooler than present (anderson and brubaker 1994, edwards et al. 2001, anderson et al. 2004), making it unlikely that temperature alone caused fire frequencies to be similar to modern boreal forests
b) in the shrub tundra zone also suggest that fuel consumption (i.e., biomass burned per fire) was lower than in modern boreal forests. we suggest elsewhere (higuera et al. 2008) that a change in tundra fuel characteristics was the primary driver of increased fire activity in the shrub tundra zone. although summer temperatures increased between the herb and shrub tundra zones, temperatures remained cooler than present (anderson and brubaker 1994, edwards et al. 2001, anderson et al. 2004), making it unlikely that temperature alone caused fire frequencies to be similar to modern boreal forests (table 3, fig. 4). similarly, changes in moisture were unimportant, as moisture remained similar to or increased slightly from
What is the definition of carbon capability?
carbon capability is defined as: 'the ability to make informed judgments and to take effective decisions regarding the use and management of carbon, through both individual behavior change and collective action
How many core dimensions of carbon capability are there?
we identify three core dimensions of carbon capability
What are the three dimensions of carbon capability?
1) decision--making (knowledge, skills, motivations and judgments), (2) individual behavior or 'practices' (e.g., energy conservation), and (3) broader engagement with systems of provision and governance (e.g., lobbying, voting, protesting, creating alternative social infrastructures of provision
seyfang et al. (2007) have proposed the concept of 'carbon capability' to capture the contextual meanings associated with carbon and the individual ability and motivation to reduce emissions. carbon capability is defined as: 'the ability to make informed judgments and to take effective decisions regarding the use and management of carbon, through both individual behavior change and collective action' (whitmarsh et al 2009). we identify three core dimensions of carbon capability: (1) decision--making (knowledge, skills, motivations and judgments), (2) individual behavior or 'practices' (e.g., energy conservation), and (3) broader engagement with systems of provision and governance (e.g., lobbying, voting, protesting, creating alternative social infrastructures of provision).
what about IGNRM?
integrated genetic and natural resource management (ignrm, twomlow et al. 2008) combines improved production practices with varieties responsive to specific soil fertility and water conservation techniques
NRM stands for?
natural resource management (nrm) techniques crop improvement alone cannot produce miracles
How Developing genotypes suitable for mixed cropping systems?
developing genotypes suitable for mixed cropping systems; for example pearl millet and cowpea cultivars with complementary maturities, plant and rooting architectures that maximize total value of production and enhance stability in intercropping systems
developing cultivars with specific adaptation to natural resource management (nrm) techniques crop improvement alone cannot produce miracles. the development of new improved and climate-proof cultivars must go hand in hand with sustainable soil fertility management and water conservation and drainage techniques. integrated genetic and natural resource management (ignrm, twomlow et al. 2008) combines improved production practices with varieties responsive to specific soil fertility and water conservation techniques. by avoiding the most common pitfalls of scientific reductionism, ignrm provides a conceptual framework more representative of smallholders' holistic management of the cropping system. within that framework, analyses of genotype x crop management x location (environment) interactions can help identify synergistic combinations of crop management and variety options that surpass the individual impacts of each technology. the breeder's contributions to ignrm strategies for adaptation to climate variability may include: developing genotypes suitable for mixed cropping systems; for example pearl millet and cowpea cultivars with complementary maturities, plant and rooting architectures that maximize total value of production and enhance stability in intercropping systems. as indicated above, this can reduce the risk if one crop fails due to early season drought, the other may still produce and profit from the gained space and therefore 21 21 enhance the system's production stability. it may also reduce the overall workload as there may be spatial or temporal differences in resource use. selective matchmaking of adaptation traits, or combinations thereof, with nrm; for example, photoperiod-sensitive cultivars may benefit more from water harvesting technologies such as contour ridge tillage (p. s. c. traore, unpublished data). this allows earlier planting and canopy development with higher final biomass yield, and yet avoids hastened maturity that penalizes harvest quality. it is best targeted to drier landscape positions and years (traore et al. 2004) and to dual-purpose crops (fodder grain). breeding for enhanced resource use efficiency; for example high phosphorous efficiency that maximizes economic benefit of improved nutrient management as well as reduces risks under deficiency conditions via increased crop root volume and reduced flowering delay and consequent terminal drought escape.
How can these efforts can best enhance and encourage more widespread climate change adaptation, particularly at smaller scales?
by capturing what they learn and disseminating it widely
Recommendations to date also largely neglect what?
social science
Widespread calls exist for immediate action to adapt conservation practice to ongoing climate change in order to ensure the persistence of what?
many species and related ecosystem services
widespread calls exist for immediate action to adapt conservation practice to ongoing climate change in order to ensure the persistence of many species and related ecosystem services. however, the majority of recommendations in the published journal literature lack sufficient specificity to direct this action. over the last 22 years, general recommendations have been reiterated frequently without the elaboration necessary to operationalize them. greater effort to increase the availability and applicability of climate change adaptation options for conservation--through concrete strategies and case studies illustrating how and where to link research agendas, conservation programs and institutions--is badly needed. recommendations to date also largely neglect social science and are overwhelmingly focused on ecological data fig. 4 c). this bias is alarming given the obvious importance of human behavior and preferences in determining conservation outcomes watson, 2005 and the increasingly important role of multi-use public and private lands in conservation practice. a holistic landscape approach to conservation, driven by a vision of humans and other species co-mingling across reserves and developed lands, has gradually gained prominence over the last 20 years. in their seminal paper, peters and darling (1985) provided a number of recommendations that continue to be widely advocated table 1 ), but they did not address the roles of conservation and restoration in human-dominated landscapes. these ideas emerge strongly in more recent literature highlighting a need to integrate ecology with other disciplines and approaches that explicitly address the roles of institutions, policy, politics and people in successful conservation strategies. finally, few resources or capacity exist to guide an adaptation planning process at any scale hannah et al., 2002; scott and lemieux, 2007; welch, 2005). such a process would place the sea of adaptation ideas and recommendations in framework and provide practitioners with tools, roles and a structure to evaluate what ideas might be useful and feasible for particular situations. large-scale adaptation efforts that incorporate many of the recommendations found in this review are currently underway, including governmental efforts such as by parks canada or defra in england, and by international non-governmental organizations such as the nature conservancy and the wildlife conservation society. welldocumented case studies that focus not only on the outcome but also on the development process of adaptation plans are a promising avenue. these efforts can best enhance and encourage more widespread climate change adaptation, particularly at smaller scales, by capturing what they learn and disseminating it widely.
How many rivers and canals the British Waterways onws and manages?
british waterways owns and manages over 540 km of navigable rivers and 2600 km of canals, which interact with the major river basins and land drainage systems of the uk
How many reservoirs the British Waterways owns and manages?
british waterways also owns and manages 89 reservoirs in the uk, some of which are managed entirely for flood storage
Is pollution a problem?
canals are usually ' still ' waters, and do not clean themselves as with flowing rivers, so pollution is a particular problem, for example from sewage back-up from drains, and one that is exacerbated in hot summers
british waterways owns and manages over 540 km of navigable rivers and 2600 km of canals, which interact with the major river basins and land drainage systems of the uk. 24 most of the canals were constructed more than 200 years ago, and are very vulnerable to flood events. often the waterways cross different catchments and can thus transfer flows from one catchment to another. british waterways also owns and manages 89 reservoirs in the uk, some of which are managed entirely for flood storage. canals are usually ' still ' waters, and do not clean themselves as with flowing rivers, so pollution is a particular problem, for example from sewage back-up from drains, and one that is exacerbated in hot summers. canals generally operate with only 300 mm of freeboard, and there are over 650 km of embankments to be maintained. overtopping of embankments, especially those over 200 years old, can lead to failure, which could have a catastrophic impact, particularly in urban areas. british waterways is very aware of the risk and has a system of sluices, weirs, pumps and floodgates to control the flow into canals. it has a thorough system of emergency procedures that have worked well so far, but climate change, with the predicted increasingly intense periods of rainfall, is going to impose a major challenge to our 200-year-old network of canals, and this challenge does not yet seem to be fully recognized by government. despite the extent of the risk, canals are exempt from the safety requirements of the reservoirs act.
what are the principal elements of Defra and the environmental agency's framework on assessment and management of enviromental risks?
the principal elements of the framework are: * the importance of correctly defining the actual problem at hand; * the need to screen and prioritise risks before detailed quantification; * the need to consider all risks at the options appraisal stage; and * the iterative nature of the process
what  issues pertinent to decision-making are introduced in the framework?
the role of uncertainty; social aspects of risks, risk perception and the role of the media; quantification of risk; and the relationship between risk estimation, risk management and decision-making
what is the central topic of advice within the framework?
central to the framework is advice on the use and structuring of environmental risk assessment for improved risk management
defra, the environment agency and the institute for environment and health published revised overarching guidance (including a framework) on the use of risk assessment for environmental decision-making (detr, 2000b). defra and the environment agency recommend the use of this framework in their assessment and management of environmental risks. the principal elements of the framework are: * the importance of correctly defining the actual problem at hand; * the need to screen and prioritise risks before detailed quantification; * the need to consider all risks at the options appraisal stage; and * the iterative nature of the process. central to the framework is advice on the use and structuring of environmental risk assessment for improved risk management (see part 1, figure 2). the framework introduces many issues pertinent to decision-making, such as: the role of uncertainty; social aspects of risks, risk perception and the role of the media; quantification of risk; and the relationship between risk estimation, risk management and decision-making. the present report conforms to the detr (2000b) framework as appropriate, while reflecting the particular characteristics of decisions that will need to take account of climate variability and future climate change.
What did Vitousek et al.'s paper declare about the environment?
it has been nearly two decades since vitousek et al. (1997) published their seminal paper declaring that we live in a human-dominated planet
How have scientists come to their conclusions about human-induced climate change?
our knowledge of these transformations has accumulated from observations made repeatedly over time that detect, measure and sometimes explain the underlying role of human activities and put these in the context of a variable climate system. repeated measurements sustained over decades capture changes provoked by specific human actions such as damming a large river, or fluctuating climate patterns such as the north atlantic oscillation
What are some ways humans have altered the natural environment of the earth?
evidence has accumulated since that the human population has transformed landscapes, chemistry of the atmosphere and oceans, biological communities from the top to bottom of food webs, biogeochemical cycling, patterns of precipitation and runoff, ice extent across the arctic, and the functions essential for human welfare provided by planet earth
it has been nearly two decades since vitousek et al. (1997) published their seminal paper declaring that we live in a human-dominated planet. evidence has accumulated since that the human population has transformed landscapes, chemistry of the atmosphere and oceans, biological communities from the top to bottom of food webs, biogeochemical cycling, patterns of precipitation and runoff, ice extent across the arctic, and the functions essential for human welfare provided by planet earth (r eur ockstrom et al. 2009). our knowledge of these transformations has accumulated from observations made repeatedly over time that detect, measure and sometimes explain the underlying role of human activities and put these in the context of a variable climate system. repeated measurements sustained over decades capture changes provoked by specific human actions such as damming a large river, or fluctuating climate patterns such as the north atlantic oscillation. repeated
What are the use of Village Level Land Maps can provide for different rainfall scenarios?
stabilization of yields from rain-fed farming, and greater food and economic security
What is the term of 'Hypothesis " used for?
to acknowledge the uncertainties associated with both the impacts of climate change and the adaptation contribution of particular activities
land use village-level land-use maps can provide a range of options for different rainfall scenarios. they can lead to stabilization of yields from rain-fed farming, and greater food and economic security. we use the term "hypothesis" to acknowledge the uncertainties associated with both the impacts of climate change and the adaptation contribution of particular activities. even if the intervention succeeds in achieving its intended outcomes, those outcomes may not contribute to adaptation as expected, either because the impacts of climate change are not as anticipated, or because the adaptive nature of the results is less than expected. the term "hypothesis" recognizes that the results, whether positive or negative, can contribute to a learning process to better inform effective adaptation. questions for practitioners to consider in forming an adaptation hypothesis for an intervention include: * does the adaptation hypothesis make clear how the intervention addresses climate adaptation needs identified in the vulnerability and risk assessment (step 1)? * does each major intervention outcome have an adaptation hypothesis? 3.4 step 4 - create an adaptation theory of change once a clear hypothesis is drafted for each intervention outcome, the next step is to draft a consistent theory of change (toc) (step 4) that links core activities to adaptation outcomes. a toc traces the conditions needed to reach objectives by breaking them down into achievable steps. this typically means mapping out the primary activities, outputs, and outcome(s) associated with a given objective. the sequential narrative of a toc (also described as a "results chain" or an "impacts chain") is helpful for understanding how and why an intervention functions. it acts as a point of reference for checking progress while monitoring, and can be used to evaluate completed projects and inform future project design.39 this paper treats an intervention's toc as the "backbone" of the intervention's m&e system. typically, a toc is illustrated with a table or visual of expected inputs, outputs, outcomes, and impacts for the intervention (see figure 6). the "theory" is how the program or project is expected to progress from inputs to impacts. mapping out the relationships between these steps
What does design life level aim to achieve?
design life level aims to achieve a desired probability of a hazardous exceedance (or risk of failure) during the design life period
What does the Risk Plot specify?
the risk plot specifies the time distribution of risk
What is the focus of the Constant Risk Plot?
the constant risk plot has a somewhat different focus, aiming at situations in which risks are not fixed once and for all by the original design, but rather managed over time, such as water levels in a dam
in this section, we propose design life level as a measure to quantify risk for the purpose of engineering design in a changing climate. we also discuss minimax design life level, and the use of risk plots and constant risk plots. design life level aims to achieve a desired probability of a hazardous exceedance (or risk of failure) during the design life period. minimax design life level is closely related, and complementary, but instead focuses on the maximal yearly probability of exceedance during the design life period. the risk plot specifies the time distribution of risk, whereas the constant risk plot has a somewhat different focus, aiming at situations in which risks are not fixed once and for all by the original design, but rather managed over time, such as water levels in a dam. we use a hypothetical example, flooding of a dike, to introduce the concepts. in the example, the distribution of the highest water level at the dike during year t will be assumed to follow a generalized extreme value (gev) cdf,
why is it important to predict the future of climatic conditions?
understanding and predicting future year-to-year of temperature and precipitation is central to noaa's mission and highly relevant to society
what tools has been developed for seasonal air temperature forecasting?
this study demonstrates skillful seasonal prediction of near-surface air temperature and precipitation over land using a new high-resolution climate model (gfdl-flor) developed at noaa-gfdl, and diagnoses the sources of the prediction skill
what is the positive point of the new GFDL FLOR model?
the principal results of this study are that: 1) the new high-resolution gfdl flor model shows improved representation of precipitation and surface air temperature, and skillful seasonal predictions of near-surface air temperature and precipitation over land
submitted to journal of climate skillful seasonal predictions of surface temperature and precipitation over land are in particular demand due to their skillful seasonal predictions of surface temperature and precipitation over land are in particular demand due to their influences on societal factors (such as agriculture, the energy sector and transportation) and ecosystems. therefore, understanding and predicting future year-to-year of temperature and precipitation is central to noaa's mission and highly relevant to society. this study demonstrates skillful seasonal prediction of near-surface air temperature and precipitation over land using a new high-resolution climate model (gfdl-flor) developed at noaa-gfdl, and diagnoses the sources of the prediction skill. the principal results of this study are that: 1) the new high-resolution gfdl flor model shows improved representation of precipitation and surface air temperature, and skillful seasonal predictions of near-surface air temperature and precipitation over land.
How does the effect of the water table on the clay loam work?
for the clay loam, where capillarity is strong, a water table depth of 10 m can still be ''felt'' in the root zone and near the surface
How does the effect of the water table on sandy loam work?
the water table has little role as a source if it is below the root zone, and it will function as a receptor for rapid drainage of rainfall events
How the result points to the potential link between soil moisture and the water table ?
by influencing the soil water content from below, the water table acts as the lower boundary condition of the soil column
the effect of the water table on soil moisture is different in different soils. for the clay loam, where capillarity is strong, a water table depth of 10 m can still be ''felt'' in the root zone and near the surface. for the sandy loam, the water table has little role as a source if it is below the root zone, and it will function as a receptor for rapid drainage of rainfall events. this simple result points to the potential link between soil moisture and the water table: by influencing the soil water content from below, the water table acts as the lower boundary condition of the soil column, much in the same sense that the atmosphere acts as its upper boundary. both can drive the soil water flux in the unsaturated zone at their own characteristic spatial and temporal scales. in the context of figure 9, the simulated equilibrium water table depth, this simple result leads to the hypothesis that the water table can be shallow enough (< 5 m deep) to influence soil moisture over large regions of the continent, particularly in the humid southeast and the intermountain valleys of the west. this hypothesis will be tested in part 2.
How is the impact of climate?
the impact of climate is not uniform across the year: while higher temperatures during the hot spring and summer days would adversely influence crop growth, warmer autumns could lead to an enhanced growing season
What are the advantages of Higher temperatures during winter?
higher temperatures during winter could also favourably influence pest growth and could therefore have an adverse impact on crop growth
Higher precipitation is beneficial or harmful?
as expected, higher precipitation would be beneficial in the winter and autumn seasons, but harmful during spring and summer
however, the impact of climate is not uniform across the year: while higher temperatures during the hot spring and summer days would adversely influence crop growth, warmer autumns could lead to an enhanced growing season. higher temperatures during winter could also favourably influence pest growth and could therefore have an adverse impact on crop growth. as expected, higher precipitation would be beneficial in the winter and autumn seasons, but harmful during spring and summer. from a regional point of view, the impact of climate change is also not uniform (see figure 1). climate change is likely to have an adverse impact on agriculture in most parts of india, apart from in the eastern states of bihar and west bengal and the inland region of karnataka. the high-value agricultural regions of haryana, punjab and uttar pradesh, together with the dry regions of gujarat and rajasthan, will be affected most, while coastal states such as andhra pradesh and tamil nadu will also be affected, but to a lesser extent. the study finds that spatial effects do make a significant difference to the impact of climate change on indian agriculture (see figure 2). for example, one of the climate change scenarios kumar assesses involves a +2oc temperature change and a +7 percent precipitation change uniformly across india. if spatial effects are not considered, this scenario would result in an estimated 9 percent decline in annual farm-level net revenue. when spatial effects are taken into account, the impact of climate change on revenue is found to be only 3 percent. from a regional perspective kumar's research finds that in andhra pradesh, tamil nadu, rajasthan, madhya pradesh and, to some extent, uttar pradesh, incorporating spatial effects results in a reduction in the impact of climate change on agriculture. among other things, a strong flow of information amongst farmers in one of the major limitations of the agro-economic approach is how it deals with the way in which farmers adapt to changes in climate. under this approach, the physical impacts of climate change on agriculture must be re-estimated for each adaptation strategy; this means that researchers using the agro-economic approach can only assess a limited number of such strategies. the main alternative method, which is used in this study, is known as the ricardian approach. this approach is based on the argument that it is possible to assess the economic impact on farmers of a (say) 3oc temperature rise by studying two agricultural areas that are similar in all respects except that one has a climate on average 3oc warmer than the other. since this approach incorporates in its analysis the responses of farmers to climate change, it can, in principle, include all adaptation possibilities. the ricardian approach has received widespread attention due to its elegance and several studies in india have followed this approach to assess the climate sensitivity of indian agriculture. for example, kumar and parikh earlier used a variant of this approach and showed that a 2oc temperature rise and a 7 percent increase in rainfall would lead to almost a 8.4 percent loss in farm level net revenue. a few studies have used a third approach to look at the impact of climate change. this is based on the agro-ecological zones (aez) methodology of the un food and agricultural organization. this approach assesses crop suitability to agro-ecological zones under present and changed climatic conditions. this is done to estimate the changes in production potential that climate change will produce and, consequently, to assess its economic implications.
What happens in the first stage in centrifugation?
in a first stage, the sludge particles settle at a velocity much higher than would occur under the action of gravity
What are centrifuges?
centrifuges are equipment that may be used indistinctly for sludge thickening and dewatering
What are the main types of centrifuges used for sludge dewatering?
the main types of centrifuges used for sludge dewatering are vertical and horizontal-shaft centrifuges
centrifugation is a solids/liquid separation operation forced by the action of a centrifugal force. in a first stage, the sludge particles settle at a velocity much higher than would occur under the action of gravity. in a second stage, compaction occurs when the sludge loses part of the capillary water under the prolonged action of centrifugation. the cake is removed from the process after this last dewatering stage. centrifuges are equipment that may be used indistinctly for sludge thickening and dewatering. the operating principle is the same, and it is possible to install the centrifuges in series, the first for the thickening of the sludge and the second for the dewatering. the main types of centrifuges used for sludge dewatering are vertical and horizontal-shaft centrifuges. the main differences are in the type of feeding of the sludge, the intensity of the centrifugal force and the manner in which the cake and the liquid are unloaded from the equipment. currently, the majority of treatment plants that dewater sludge by centrifugation use horizontalshaft centrifuges. the semi-continuous feeding of the sludge and relatively lower solids levels in the cake produced by the vertical-shaft centrifuges are some of the reasons for this preference. horizontal centrifuges can be classified according to the direction of the sludge feeding and the removal of the cake as co-current and counter-current their main differences reside in the sludge feeding points, in the removal of the centrate (liquid phase removal) and in the direction of the flow of the solid and liquid phases in its interior. in the co-current centrifuges, the solid and the liquid phases cross all the extension of the longitudinal shaft of the equipment, until they are unloaded. in the counter-current models the feeding is done in the junction of the cylindrical section with the conical section of the equipment. the solid phase is transported overview of sludge treatment and disposal 267
Where were the Ensembles of Weather Generator outputs produced?
ensembles of weather generator outputs were produced on a 25 km grid across the uk in a similar manner as for the sites
Where can we find the largest increase in hot days?
the largest increase in hot days is found in the south east of england (see figure 7), where for the 50th percentile (or median case) an increase from around 20 to more than 50 days per year is expected
Where does a corresponding decrease in frost days can be found?
a corresponding decrease in frost days is found as shown in figure 8
ensembles of weather generator outputs were produced on a 25 km grid across the uk in a similar manner as for the sites. change factors are available on the 25 km grid, and the observed statistics were averaged from the 5 km grid resolution to match. a sample of the outputs are shown here. the largest increase in hot days is found in the south east of england (see figure 7), where for the 50th percentile (or median case) an increase from around 20 to more than 50 days per year is expected. the maps should be interpreted as showing the differences (increases) in frequency of hot days between the same percentile. for example, for the 90th percentile maps, they show the number of days per year which is exceeded on average in only 10% of years. a corresponding decrease in frost days is found as shown in figure 8. substantial decreases are found across the uk, except where they are already close to zero (e.g. near coasts). finally, changes in the pattern of dry spells are shown in figure 9, where modest increases are found across the country and substantial increases in the south and east associated with summer drying.
What was established by the global-modeling community to evaluate feedbacks between climate change and global C cycles?
the global-modeling community has established a quantitative framework over the past years to evaluate feedbacks between climate change and global c cycles
What is phenology consistently affected by?
climate warming, for example, consistently affects phenology
What is the mechanism underlying the modeled changes in C fluxes?
the high degree of uniformity among projections by various models results from a similar mechanism underlying the modeled changes in c fluxes. that mechanism is the kinetic sensitivity of photosynthesis and respiration to temperature
the global-modeling community has established a quantitative framework over the past years to evaluate feedbacks between climate change and global c cycles. the coupled carbon-climate models reported in the literature all simulate a positive feedback between terrestrial c cycle and climate warming. the high degree of uniformity among projections by various models results from a similar mechanism underlying the modeled changes in c fluxes. that mechanism is the kinetic sensitivity of photosynthesis and respiration to temperature. experimental results suggest much richer mechanisms than kinetic sensitivity that drive ecosystem responses to climate warming. climate warming, for example, consistently affects phenology, leading to extended growing seasons and enhanced biomass growth and c sequestration from the atmosphere. experiments often show that species composition changes in response to climate warming. altered species composition can lead to either the net source or net sink of c, depending on the ecophysiology of altered species. experimental warming also consistently stimulates mineralization and nutrient availability, favoring plant
When are extratropical cyclones most intense?
extratropical cyclones are most intense during the cold season
What is characterized by a rapid transient process with a fast buildup of frontal precipitation?
the evolution of an extratropical cyclone is characterized by a rapid transient process with a fast buildup of frontal precipitation
What are the main drivers of extreme extratropical cyclones?
situations with strong temperature gradients, and associated upper-air winds suggest that these conditions
the fact that observations and theoretical considerations show that extratropical cyclones are most intense during the cold season and in situations with strong temperature gradients, and associated upper-air winds suggest that these conditions are the main drivers of extreme extratropical cyclones. in contrast to tropical cyclones where the release of latent heat is quasi-symmetrically organized around the cyclone, the extratropical cyclones are different in this respect. moreover, the evolution of an extratropical cyclone is characterized by a rapid transient process with a fast buildup of frontal precipitation and an equally fast collapse of organized precipitation as the cyclone occludes and weakens. to better explore the influence of latent heat release we identified the 100 most intense cyclones based upon precipitation intensity instead of vorticity maximum (fig. 9b). these cyclones have weaker maximum winds than those chosen using the t42 vorticity maxima but the interesting result is that there is no increase in extreme winds but rather a decrease in 21c. this further supports our view that the increase in latent heat release has only a minor direct influence on any likely intensification of extratropical cyclones. finally, there are reports of intense small-scale extratropical cyclones and polar lows, which have features more in common with tropical cyclones, where an enhancement by latent heat cannot be excluded. we intend to investigate this in a future study. acknowledgments. the work was partly supported by the eu fp6 project, ensembles (gocect2003505539). the simulations were performed at hlrn (norddeutscher verbund fu"r hoch und ho"chstleistungsrechnen). the max planck institute provided echam5 and additional computing resources. the authors are grateful for technical and scientific support provided by luis kornblueh, monica esch, and erich roeckner. the authors are also grateful to ralf weisse of the gkss, institute for coastal research, germany, and magnar reistad from the norwegian meteorological institute for providing the ekofisk data. the authors also thank ecmwf for their provision of the era-40 and interim reanalysis data.
What does socio-economic resilience, in terms of fishers, refer to?
socio-economic resilience in terms of fishers and their communities refers to how they are able to maintain their livelihoods and desired ways of living, without outside assistance, following undesirable shocks
Whats the consequences of a greater proportion of a fishing community employed in a particular capture fishery?
the greater proportion of a fishing community employed in a particular capture fishery, the fewer alternative employment activities available within the community
What does socio-economic resilience, in terms of fishers, would include?
it would include their flexibility to substitute to more abundant fishery resources or to alternative economic activities to help offset declines in harvests from targeted fisheries
socio-economic resilience in terms of fishers and their communities refers to how they are able to maintain their livelihoods and desired ways of living, without outside assistance, following undesirable shocks. for instance, it would include their flexibility to substitute to more abundant fishery resources or to alternative economic activities to help offset declines in harvests from targeted fisheries. the greater proportion of a fishing community employed in a particular capture fishery, the fewer alternative employment activities available within the community, the greater the distance to other communities, and the more specialized the job skill set within fishing the less resilient will communities likely be to shocks associated with climate change. 8 8 4. resilience and adaptation to climate change
What does Observations of soil temperature show?
observations (baxter 1997) and models (jury et al. 1991) of soil temperature show that, at a depth of 3 m (lower soil boundary in the noah lsm), the annual soil temperature cycle is typically time lagged by 70 days and amplitude damped to about one-third the amplitude of the skin temperature
The phase lag and attenuation at depth depend on what?
the phase lag and attenuation at depth depend on the frequency of the surface temperature variation, but we shall base our methodology on the annual cycle
What's the response?
the desired response may be obtained by taking a simple weighted average of the skin temperature over the previous year, where the weighting is adjusted to yield the desired attenuation and phase lag
observations (baxter 1997) and models (jury et al. 1991) of soil temperature show that, at a depth of 3 m (lower soil boundary in the noah lsm), the annual soil temperature cycle is typically time lagged by 70 days and amplitude damped to about one-third the amplitude of the skin temperature. for climate simulations over many years, a fixed climatological boundary condition would force errors in the surface parameters. therefore, we have implemented a parameterization to update the 3-m lower boundary soil temperature based on simulated skin temperature. the phase lag and attenuation at depth depend on the frequency of the surface temperature variation, but we shall base our methodology on the annual cycle. the desired response may be obtained by taking a simple weighted average of the skin temperature over the previous year, where the weighting is adjusted to yield the desired attenuation and phase lag. we choose a weighting function with two terms, the skin temperature averaged over the past year  tskin365 and the past n days prior to the time of interest  tskinn, tsoil  
In this passage, what parameters should receive extra attention when monitoring changes in climate?
special attention is to be given to long-term monitoring of hydro-meteorological parameters in selected, benchmark sub-catchments
What should be done before more capital expenditures are planned?
it would be strategic to establish effective water demand-side management before undertaking further capital expenditure on developing additional sources of water
What goal did the Cape Metropolitan Council want to achieve in the 1997 policy statement?
to this end, the cape metropolitan council accepted in 1997 the following policy statement: "...to develop and manage, in a participatory manner, the implementation of a socially benefi cial, technically feasible, economically effective, ecologically sustainable water demand management strategy, which will reduce the (dwaf 1994) projected demand in greater cape town by 20 per cent (or more) by the year 2010".(25
in addition, it is important that the impacts due to the changes in climate be monitored as a precautionary measure. special attention is to be given to long-term monitoring of hydro-meteorological parameters in selected, benchmark sub-catchments. water planners and managers need to use the available climate data to make strategic decisions on an ongoing basis. it would be strategic to establish effective water demand-side management before undertaking further capital expenditure on developing additional sources of water. to this end, the cape metropolitan council accepted in 1997 the following policy statement: "...to develop and manage, in a participatory manner, the implementation of a socially benefi cial, technically feasible, economically effective, ecologically sustainable water demand management strategy, which will reduce the (dwaf 1994) projected demand in greater cape town by 20 per cent (or more) by the year 2010".(25)
What does the  Brklacich et al (9) stated in their summary of Canadian research as part of the Canada Country Study?
brklacich et al.(9)stated that climate change will have a wide range of impacts on agriculture in canada
What is expected of most regions of the country?
most regions of the country are expected to experience warmer conditions, longer frost-free seasons and increased evapotranspiration
Which factors the actual impacts of these changes on agricultural operations depend on?
will vary depending on factors such as precipitation changes, soil conditions and land use
in their summary of canadian research as part of the canada country study, brklacich et al.(9)stated that climate change will have a wide range of impacts on agriculture in canada. most regions of the country are expected to experience warmer conditions, longer frost-free seasons and increased evapotranspiration. the actual impacts of these changes on agricultural operations, however, will vary depending on factors such as precipitation changes, soil conditions and land use. in general, northern agricultural regions are expected to benefit most from longer and warmer frost-free seasons. some northern locations (e.g., peace river region of alberta and british columbia, and parts of northern ontario and quebec) may also experience new opportunities for cultivation, although the benefits will likely be restricted to areas south of latitude 60degn for the next several decades. poor soil conditions will be a major factor limiting the northward expansion of agricultural crops. in southern ontario and quebec, warmer conditions may increase the potential for the growth of specialty crops, such as apples. in many cases, the positive and negative impacts of climate change would tend to offset each other. for instance, the positive impacts of warmer temperatures and enhanced co2 on crop growth are expected to largely offset the negative impacts of increased moisture stress and accelerated crop maturation time. it should be noted that these predictions are characterized by a high degree of uncertainty and do not include potential changes in pest and pathogen outbreaks (e.g., warmer winters may increase grasshopper infestations in the prairies), nor do they consider the potential impacts of agricultural land fragmentation. agricultural adaptation to climate change was considered a relatively new field of study at the time of the canada country study. the majority of adaptation research focused on identifying adaptation options and assessing their feasibility. these studies were mainly technical in nature, and did not consider economic practicalities or the capacity of producers to undertake the adaptation. to address this, brklacich et al.(9)recommended increasing the farming community's involvement in adaptation research.
What amplifies the effect of the feedback process in the hydrological cycle of the central U.S.?
the effect of this particular feedback is amplified because a change is introduced into a slowly varying component of the hydrologic cycle (soil moisture) thereby extending the impact of increased summer precipitation to later months in the annual cycle
How does the increase in dTmax in summer at the center of the warming hole in the central U.S. compare to the rest of the continental U.S.?
the increase in daily maximum surface air temperature (dtmax) in summer at the center of the warming hole is less than 0.5 k, which is substantially less than the mean increase of about 3 k over the continental u.s
What is the timeline of the warming hole's development?
the warming hole starts to develop in june, reaches its maximum value in september, and gradually diminishes through october and november (figure 1b
changes in forcing of the climate system can trigger new or altered feedback processes. we have found evidence of such a feedback in the hydrological cycle of the central u.s. that creates a regional minimum within the continentalscale pattern of warming in an enhanced greenhouse-gas climate. the effect of this particular feedback is amplified because a change is introduced into a slowly varying component of the hydrologic cycle (soil moisture) thereby extending the impact of increased summer precipitation to later months in the annual cycle. we investigated these processes using a regional climate model (rcm) to downscale contemporary and future scenario climates from a global climate model (gcm) johns et al. 1997] in order to project resolution-enhanced patterns of climate change for the continental u.s. previous work has shown that the downscaled climate from this approach provides a reasonable representation of the atmosphere-hydrology linkage in this region pan et al. 2001a; gutowski et al. 2003]. the most notable feature in the projected climate is a local minimum of warming (hereinafter called a ''warming hole'') in the central u.s. during summer (june, july and august) (figure 1a). the increase in daily maximum surface air temperature (dtmax) in summer at the center of the warming hole is less than 0.5 k, which is substantially less than the mean increase of about 3 k over the continental u.s. the ground temperature has an even stronger warming hole with 0.5 k cooling, rather than warming, in the center. the warming hole starts to develop in june, reaches its maximum value in september, and gradually diminishes through october and november (figure 1b). the purpose of this paper is to analyze the processes underlying the reduced warming and to show the hole's links to observed climate trends.
What can be said is a challenge of global climate change?
the challenges brought on by global climate change are beyond the lived experience of all knowledge holders, whether scientific or indigenous (huntington et al., 2005; nuttall et al., 2005
What is there a growing and urgent need for?
there is a growing need for policies and action that foster the co-production of new knowledge sets, based upon collaborative efforts involving community-based knowledge holders and natural and social scientists
What is an important area for development of knowledge co-production?
co-management regimes that bring communities and the state together to jointly manage natural resources, have provided an important arena for the development of knowledge co-production (freeman and carbyn, 1988; inglis, 1993; kofinas, 2002
the challenges brought on by global climate change are beyond the lived experience of all knowledge holders, whether scientific or indigenous (huntington et al., 2005; nuttall et al., 2005). effective adaptation planning requires access to the best available knowledge, whatever its source. in the face of climate change risks and impacts that remain uncertain and unpredictable, there is a growing need for policies and action that foster the co-production of new knowledge sets, based upon collaborative efforts involving community-based knowledge holders and natural and social scientists. co-management regimes that bring communities and the state together to jointly manage natural resources, have provided an important arena for the development of knowledge co-production (freeman and carbyn, 1988; inglis, 1993; kofinas, 2002). 67
Ho was the local species richness estimated?
local species richness was estimated using rarefaction methods (colwell, 2005
How was the degree of dryness estimated?
the degree of dryness was estimated as the frequency of rain days each month and dry season duration by the number of months where this frequency was below the 25th percentile of the mean number of rain days per month across all sites and months
How is the dry season severity index calculated?
the dry season severity index was the cumulative sum of days per month below the 25th percentile of the annual mean number of rain days per month
local species richness was estimated using rarefaction methods (colwell, 2005). the data set was sufficiently large that the estimates of total local species richness were almost identical using any estimator, so we have presented chao's estimates as an example. multiple linear regression was used to examine the relationship between the total bird assemblage abundance and the following climatic variables: mean annual temperature, mean annual rainfall, and the coefficient of variation of mean monthly rainfall and temperature. we calculated an index of dry season severity that combines the degree of dryness and the duration of the dry season. the degree of dryness was estimated as the frequency of rain days each month and dry season duration by the number of months where this frequency was below the 25th percentile of the mean number of rain days per month across all sites and months. the dry season severity index was the cumulative sum of days per month below the 25th percentile of the annual mean number of rain days per month. we used one-way analysis of variance to test for significant differences in dry season severity across the subregions.
How will funding be achieved for adaptation?
since the unfccc will only meet incremental costs, basic funding for adaptation will have to come from other sources, mostly from development banks, other conventions, and oda
How do NAPAs function?
napas use existing information; they are action oriented and country driven, flexible and based on national circumstances
How many countries had prepared their NAPAs by late 2008?
up to october 2008, some 39 countries had prepared their napas
other policy and funding options for adaptation other options at the international level essentially involve working through existing channels of multilateral and bilateral assistance to integrate adaptation considerations across the full range of development support. a developmentcentred strategy could closely complement the convention-based approach described above, helping to ensure that the national adaptation strategies prepared are in fact implemented, and could over time leverage far more resources than would likely be forthcoming under the climate regime (burton et al. 2006). since the unfccc will only meet incremental costs, basic funding for adaptation will have to come from other sources, mostly from development banks, other conventions, and oda. other options include designing specific measures aimed at 'climate proofing' development projects or risk management measures and insurance policies (mills 2005; bouwer and aerts 2006). burton et al. (2006) and muller (2008) present a comprehensive review of these 'innovative' approaches for international adaptation funding. national communications and napas under the unfccc, countries are committed to submitting national communications to the secretariat of the convention. in their national communications, developing countries provided information on their vulnerabilities to climate change in a wide range of sectors, and highlighted sectoral adaptation options and responses. these include both proactive and reactive responses to climate change. the sectoral approach to adaptation raises at least two questions--equity and fairness--in defining the priority sectors for a country (paavola and adger 2006), and highlights potentially weak coordination of national measures at the highest political level (glantz 2001). the 7th conference of the parties of the unfccc, acknowledging specific situations of least developed countries (ldcs), established an ldc work programme including napas. the napas focus on urgent and immediate needs of ldcs--those for which further delay could increase vulnerability or lead to increased costs at a later stage. napas use existing information; they are action oriented and country driven, flexible and based on national circumstances. up to october 2008, some 39 countries had prepared their napas. funding for implementation of napas has been channelled through the global environment facility's (gef) initiatives (see box 17) (huq and burton 2003; bouwer and aerts 2006).
what does the climate model come from?
perception of the intensity/ maximum of snowfall is closely linked to the perception of snowfall distribution. in fact, the perception of a changed climatic pattern on the whole seems to be derived from the perception of a reduced intensity of snowfall
What does it mean?
there was a trend over the 37 yr towards decreased amounts of annual rainfall (fig. 4), but rainfall was predominantly perceived in terms of its temporal distribution--the attribute on which the color of an apple mostly depends and, more importantly, the survival of the plant itself depends by its regulation of moisture stress. in addition, actual fluctuations in the amount of annual rainfall were not very significant compared to
as previously noted, perception of the intensity/ maximum of snowfall is closely linked to the perception of snowfall distribution. in fact, the perception of a changed climatic pattern on the whole seems to be derived from the perception of a reduced intensity of snowfall. that a temporal distribution of snowfall can be derived from the higher intensity of snowfall means a greater proportion of snowfall will occur early in the year (see fig. 2). according to farmers, late snowfall in february and march occurs mostly as a mixture of sleet and rain, resulting in lower temperatures and thereby a late onset of spring (see fig. 3). the local perception of climate seems patterned by its utilitarian aspects. it is interesting to note that the patterns of change described by farmers are closely linked to the annual growth cycle of apples. amount of snow determines the number of chilling hours and thereby the time of bud-break. if snow has been normal-heavy, approximately 2 to 3 ft (60 to 90 cm), the perception of its occurrence is positively correlated with heavy early snow and little late snow. therefore, a snow level of 2.5 to 3 ft seems to represent the optimal pollination and fruit-bearing conditions for an apple crop. early snow is regarded as durable, longlasting and full of nitrogen; late snow, on the other hand, is described as watery, transitory and understood to adversely impact pollination and apple fruitbearing. both the amount and the distribution of snowfall are utilized as local benchmarks for assessing the utilitarian effect of snowfall. particularly significant is that the high correlation between early snowfall (december-january) and total/annual snowfall intervals for the 37 yr concerned, with a pearson's r of 0.769 at 99% confidence. almost inevitably, any mention of early or late snow is accompanied by a description of its impact on the yield or performance of apple. there was a trend over the 37 yr towards decreased amounts of annual rainfall (fig. 4), but rainfall was predominantly perceived in terms of its temporal distribution--the attribute on which the color of an apple mostly depends and, more importantly, the survival of the plant itself depends by its regulation of moisture stress. in addition, actual fluctuations in the amount of annual rainfall were not very significant compared to
What is results of ECA based on?
the occurrence of disasters that coincide with an armed-conflict outbreak within the same month materials and methods 
What do the filled segments indicate?
coincidence rates that are significant at the 95% level
The results are from how many different countries?
four different country
fig. 4. results of eca for the trigger test based on the occurrence of disasters that coincide with an armed-conflict outbreak within the same month materials and methods ). results for four different country groupings are resolved in four individual panels, whereas results for different disaster types are indicated by the color coding. coincidence rates are displayed for different damage threshold levels by individual bars with increasing damage threshold from left to right. for some threshold levels, the trigger coincidence rate is zero. filled segments indicate coincidence rates that are significant at the 95% level. note that the coincidence rates are one order of magnitude smaller than for the risk enhancement test depicted in fig. 3.
What produces low latitudes?
at low latitudes, negative feedbacks to warming will be decreased or eliminated, largely through direct human impacts. with modest warming, net feedbacks of terrestrial ecosystems to warming are likely to be negative in the tropics and positive at high latitudes. larger amounts of warming will generally push the feedbacks toward the positive
most modeling studies on terrestrial feedbacks to warming over the twenty-first century imply that the net feedbacks are negative--that changes in ecosystems, on the whole, resist warming, largely through ecosystem carbon storage. although it is clear that potentially important mechanisms can lead to carbon storage, a number of less wellunderstood mechanisms, several of which are rarely or incompletely modeled, tend to diminish the negative feedbacks or lead to positive feedbacks. at high latitudes, negative feedbacks from forest expansion are likely to be largely or completely compensated by positive feedbacks from decreased albedo, increased carbon emissions from thawed permafrost, and increased wildfire. at low latitudes, negative feedbacks to warming will be decreased or eliminated, largely through direct human impacts. with modest warming, net feedbacks of terrestrial ecosystems to warming are likely to be negative in the tropics and positive at high latitudes. larger amounts of warming will generally push the feedbacks toward the positive.
What is a result of less precipitation falling as snow?
there will be a shift in peak water supply to winter and early spring and away from the summer months when irrigation is most needed, with likely severe effects in areas where storage capacity cannot be expanded (81). combined with increased water demand, and preexisting vulnerability of many poorer irrigated farmer
What are some examples of such environmental or larger-scale impacts and their effects?
sea level-rise on coastal areas, increased intensity of landfall tropical storms (78), and other forms of environmental impact still being identified, such as increased forest fire risk
How does climate change affect the soil?
included here are effects of climate change on soil fertility and water-holding properties
another class of impacts is felt at the level of communities, landscapes, and watersheds, and has been less considered in literature on climate change and agriculture, although there is some overlap with consideration given to extreme events. one such impact is the effects of decreasing snowcap on major irrigation systems involving hundreds of millions of smallholders, particularly in the indogangetic plain. as a result of warming, less precipitation falling as snow, and earlier spring melting, there will be a shift in peak water supply to winter and early spring and away from the summer months when irrigation is most needed, with likely severe effects in areas where storage capacity cannot be expanded (81). combined with increased water demand, and preexisting vulnerability of many poorer irrigated farmers, such an impact could be catastrophic. also to be included here are effects of climate change on soil fertility and water-holding properties. global warming and accompanying hydrological changes are likely to affect all soil processes in complex ways, including by accelerated decomposition of organic matter and depression of nitrogen-fixing activity (82). kundzewicz et al. (83) note the projected increased erosivity of rainfall, and several factors likely to increase the erodibility of soils worldwide. other examples of such environmental or larger-scale impacts are the effects of sea level-rise on coastal areas, increased intensity of landfall tropical storms (78), and other forms of environmental impact still being identified, such as increased forest fire risk (70) for the mount kilimanjaro ecosystem and remobilization of dunes for semiarid southern africa (84).
what POB criteria is most important
better than any other capacity is self-efficacy
what is self-efficacy in the workplace as defined by the studies
defined efficacy as the individual's conviction (or confidence) about his or her abilities to mobilize the motivation, cognitive resources, and courses of action needed to successfully execute a specific task within a given context
what did the meta-analysis of 114 studies find
they found a strong positive relationship between self-efficacy and work-related performance
meeting the pob criteria perhaps better than any other capacity is self-efficacy. this positive construct is based on the comprehensive theory and extensive research of bandura (1997) with recent emphasis to linking this construct to positive psychology (bandura, 2007). applied to the workplace, stajkovic and luthans (1998) defined efficacy as the individual's conviction (or confidence) about his or her abilities to mobilize the motivation, cognitive resources, and courses of action needed to successfully execute a specific task within a given context. in a meta-analysis consisting of 114 studies, they found a strong positive relationship between self-efficacy and work-related performance (stajkovic luthans, 1998).
Are there any complications for the study?
there are two main complications. first, adaptation will not reduce impacts to zero. there may be substantial residual damages that have to be taken into account. second, greenhouse gases are stock pollutants with long atmospheric lifetimes
What is the effect of reducing emissions?
cutting emissions today reduces the need for costly adaptation (and residual impacts) not just today but over many decades
Does adaptation reduce the impact to 0?
adaptation will not reduce impacts to zero. there may be substantial residual damages that have to be taken into account
what is important to understand at this point is that this optimisation process is more complex than simply comparing annual adaptation costs - as reviewed in this chapter - with estimates of global mitigation costs. there are two main complications. first, adaptation will not reduce impacts to zero. there may be substantial residual damages that have to be taken into account. second, greenhouse gases are stock pollutants with long atmospheric lifetimes. cutting emissions today reduces the need for costly adaptation (and residual impacts) not just today but over many decades - as long as the gases would have remained in the atmosphere.2
What is the significance of Ground observations?
ground observations describe the onset of phenophases at the level of the individual plant, and can be scaled to the level of varieties, provenances and species given that the biological variability and confounding microclimatic influences are assessed
what is LAI?
remote sensing, in turn, provides area-averaged information emphasizing dominant vegetation elements and focuses on the greenness, leaf-area index (lai) and related reflectance
what is considered to be the basis for numerous applications of vegetation indices?
this property of the reflectance spectra of vegetated surfaces is the basis for numerous applications of vegetation indices (notably ndvi) that deduce the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active photons from satellite observations
ground observations of phenology and satellite-derived measures of surface greenness provide complementary information. ground observations describe the onset of phenophases at the level of the individual plant, and can be scaled to the level of varieties, provenances and species given that the biological variability and confounding microclimatic influences are assessed. individual plants are observed in a given, more-or-less well known microenvironment. hence ground observations generally do not provide a spatially integrated response pattern that depends on the mixture of species in the landscape, but rather focus on developmental switches of individual species. remote sensing, in turn, provides area-averaged information emphasizing dominant vegetation elements and focuses on the greenness, leaf-area index (lai) and related reflectance. if the significance of the observed changes in reflectance is to be interpreted in terms of causes, the problem arises of decomposition into individual landscape elements. remote sensing observes temporally variable objects because of slight variation in the geolocation of the scenes, and because it traces any disturbance and change in land use. there is great potential for a better understanding of phenological effects in landscapes by combining the strengths of both approaches. if ndvi derived from satellite observations is to be used for monitoring the length of the vegetation period, it is desirable to test estimates of the onset of greening, senescence and leaf shedding by comparison with ground observation data. this is especially necessary because the metrics of ndvi and threshold values applied in its interpretation do not a priori correspond to ground truth data. the same need for comparison arises if local ground observation data are to be extended spatially with the use of remote-sensing data, and the surface greening signal interpreted in terms of the phenological development of the individual species that make up the vegetation cover. therefore an important requirement of phenological research is to establish relationships between the annual course of greenness observed by remote-sensing techniques and the leafing out, senescence and leaf shedding of vegetation elements. however, in addition to the differences mentioned so far, ground observations and remote-sensing vegetation indices monitor qualitatively different traits. vegetation indices that are derived from reflectance in the near-infrared and far-red are closely correlated with the absorption of photosynthetically active photons by plants in the visible spectrum. this is the case because the change of reflectance across the so-called red edge is a characteristic feature of photosynthetically active, chlorophyll-bearing plant organs. high reflectance of tissues with high water content in the infrared region, and high absorbance (hence low reflectance) in the red absorption maximum of chlorophyll, are the causes of the good correlation mentioned above (myneni et al ., 1995). this property of the reflectance spectra of vegetated surfaces is the basis for numerous applications of vegetation indices (notably ndvi) that deduce the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active photons from satellite observations (myneni et al ., 1997b). the latter trace the change in total absorbance of a surface element in the course of time, thus recording seasonal changes in the activity of the vegetation cover. ndvi signals allow us to estimate overall seasonal changes in light absorption of a given surface element that result from phenological switches sensu strictu further changes in the cover fraction via leaf and shoot growth, and variation in the chlorophyll content of developing and senescing leaves. the strength of remote-sensing approaches resides in providing this integrated measure of energy input to the photosynthetic processes. however, if the relation of absorbed radiation with actual photosynthesis (e.g. changes in energy partitioning with drought) is to be evaluated, and if individual sources of variation in absorbance are to be analysed and described with predictive models, then the integrated signal needs to be decomposed. the challenge is to distinguish the sources of
Why have international rice prices have always been more volatile than domestic rice prices?
global imports constitute less than 10 percent of all rice consumption, which partly explains why international rice prices have always been more volatile than other prices and much more volatile than domestic rice prices (ifpri, 2010b
Is most rice produced by farmers around the world consumed overseas?
most rice produced by farmers across the globe is consumed domestically, and the marketable surplus is therefore small
What are the top five exporting nations?
moreover, the rice export market is highly concentrated, with the top five exporting nations - thailand, india, viet nam, the united states of america and china - accounting for 83 percent of the rice traded in global markets (fao, 2002a
global imports constitute less than 10 percent of all rice consumption, which partly explains why international rice prices have always been more volatile than other prices and much more volatile than domestic rice prices (ifpri, 2010b). most rice produced by farmers across the globe is consumed domestically, and the marketable surplus is therefore small. moreover, the rice export market is highly concentrated, with the top five exporting nations - thailand, india, viet nam, the united states of america and china - accounting for 83 percent of the rice traded in global markets (fao, 2002a). because of this, any change in production among exporting countries weighs heavily on available global supplies, as demonstrated by the crisis in 2007/2008.
What institutional measures were proposed?
increasing awareness within the forest communities and the forest sector about adaptation to climate change
What is vital to allow ongoing adjustments in adaptation strategies?
monitoring is vital to allow ongoing adjustments in adaptation strategies
What adaptation measure has been cited by some authors?
conservation ex situ
other measures are complementary to those listed above. for instance, monitoring is vital to allow ongoing adjustments in adaptation strategies (fischlin et al. 2007). at a different level, conservation ex situ has been cited as an adaptation measure by some authors. even though it does not refer to the adaptation of the ecosystem itself, it may help conserve genetic diversity threatened with extinction. collections could allow re of species in the future (hansen et al. 2003). in parallel to technical measures, institutional measures must be developed, such as increasing awareness within the forest communities and the forest sector about adaptation to climate change (spittlehouse 2005; see also section 2.3).
WHAT IS THE ESTIMATED INCREASE IN GLOBAL MEAN TEMPURATURE IN THE YEAR 2100 AT 450PPM?
about 0.75 to 1.25oc less than is estimated for stabilization at 1,000 ppm
WHAT IS THE EFFECT OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMMISION REDUCTION?
lessen the pressures on natural and human systems from climate change
WHAT IS THE DIFFERENCE AT EQUILIBRIUM
about 2 to 5oc
greenhouse gas emission reduction (mitigation) actions would lessen the pressures on natural and human systems from climate change. slower rates of increase in global mean temperature and sea level would allow more time for adaptation. consequently, mitigation actions are expected to delay and reduce damages caused by climate change and thereby generate environmental and socio-economic benefits. mitigation actions and their associated costs are assessed in the response to question 7. mitigation actions to stabilize atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases at lower levels would generate greater benefits in terms of less damage. stabilization at lower levels reduces the risk of exceeding temperature thresholds in biophysical systems where these exist. stabilization of co2 at, for example, 450 ppm is estimated to yield an increase in global mean temperature in the year 2100 that is about 0.75 to 1.25oc less than is estimated for stabilization at 1,000 ppm (see figure spm-7). at equilibrium the difference is about 2 to 5oc. the geographical extent of the damage to or loss of natural systems, and the number of systems affected, which increase with the magnitude and rate of climate change, would be lower for a lower stabilization level. similarly, for a lower stabilization level the severity of impacts from climate extremes is expected to be less, fewer regions would suffer adverse net market sector impacts, global aggregate impacts would be smaller, and risks of large-scale, high-impact events would be reduced.
What do meteorological and climatic processes in mountain regions play a key role in?
many environmental systems, in particular the quantity and quality of water that influences both aquatic ecosystems and economic systems often far beyond the boundaries of the mountains themselves
What does this paper provide a general overview of?
some of the particular characteristics of mountain weather and climate, to highlight some of the unique atmospheric features that are associated with regions of complex topography
Why are mountain systems often endemic?
many species remain isolated at high elevations compared to lowland vegetation communities that can occupy climatic niches spread over wider surface areas
meteorological and climatic processes in mountain regions play a key role in many environmental systems, in particular the quantity and quality of water that influences both aquatic ecosystems and economic systems often far beyond the boundaries of the mountains themselves.this paper will provide a general overview of some of the particular characteristics of mountain weather and climate, to highlight some of the unique atmospheric features that are associated with regions of complex topography. the second part of the paper will focus upon characteristics of climate and climatic change in the european alps, a region with a wealth of high quality data that allows an assessment on how climate and dependent environmental systems have evolved in the course of the 20th century and how alpine climate may undergo further changes to ''global warming'' in the 21st century, as the atmosphere responds to increasing levels of greenhouse gases that are expected in coming decades. significant orographic features occupy close to 25% of continental surfaces (kapos et al., 2000) and, although only about 26% of the world's population resides within mountains or in the foothills of the mountains (meybeck et al., 2001), mountain-based resources indirectly provide sustenance for over half. moreover, 40% of global population lives in the watersheds of rivers originating in various mountains of the world. although mountains differ considerably from one region to another, one common characteristic is the complexity of their topography. orographic features include some of the sharpest gradients found in continental areas. related characteristics include rapid and systematic changes in climatic parameters, in particular temperature and precipitation, over very short distances (becker bugmann, 1997). since climate changes rapidly with height over relatively short horizontal distances, so does vegetation and hydrology (whiteman, 2000). as a consequence, mountains exhibit high biodiversity, often with sharp transitions (ecotones) in vegetation sequences, and equally rapid changes from vegetation and soil to snow and ice. in addition, mountains ecosystems are often endemic, because many species remain isolated at high elevations compared to lowland vegetation communities that can occupy climatic niches spread over wider surface areas. certain mountain chains have been referred to as ''islands'' rising above the surrounding plains (hedberg, 1964), such as those in east africa. as climate exerts a fundamental control on many biological, physical and chemical systems in mountains, it is of interest to assess the characteristics of regional climate in regions such as the alps, and how these
What does the population size represent?
the population size represents the state of the system by which decisions are specified
What is the demographic cost of moving a population?
the demographic cost of moving a population is expressed as the relocation survival rate, ph the thin dashed line represents population change after relocation
How would you explain the premise of managed relocation?
the premise of managed relocation is that the suitability of the source habitat will decline with climate change and a destination habitat will become suitable
system model for managed relocation. carrying capacities in the source ks) and destination kd) are shown with thick solid and dashed lines respectively; the population size, n is shown with a thin solid line. the population size represents the state of the system by which decisions are specified. note, n can decline with ks or increase towards ks, depending on the starting population size. the premise of managed relocation is that the suitability of the source habitat will decline with climate change and a destination habitat will become suitable. cs and cd represent the times at which half the suitable habitat in the source and destination populations are expected to be lost. the demographic cost of moving a population is expressed as the relocation survival rate, ph the thin dashed line represents population change after relocation based on ph
What does the lack of peer mean?
lack of peer review for a particular model does not mean it has no value, but that it has lower scientific stature and does not meet the normal standard for scientific rigor
What do I do if I need help?
it can be helpful to directly contact the developer of a particular tool or technique for additional information and insight on principles and applications
How do I get the informations?
even if you have a preferred source of scientific information for a particular application, it is usually best to compare it with other sources. although no single information source of climatic information may be more "correct" than another, it is helpful to know the differences between sources
keep processes objective and credible -- summarize the principles, information, and tools available for a particular topic, then determine if appropriate peer review has been conducted according to stan dards for the application of scientific information in resource management on public lands (federal register 2002, office of management and budget 2004). lack of peer review for a particular model does not mean it has no value, but that it has lower scientific stature and does not meet the normal standard for scientific rigor. including a short description of assumptions, limitations, and uncertainty associ ated with various tools, models, and other information is often appropriate. look for success stories -- if you can identify cases in which tools and information have been successfully applied to a situation similar to yours, then you have a good recommendation for your application. this may be an actual adaptation case study in a national forest, or in the case of a recently developed hydrological model, it could be a demonstra tion in which positive feedback was received (app. 1). in either case, other users are available from whom you can obtain insight. consult with experts -- it can be helpful to directly contact the developer of a particular tool or technique for additional information and insight on principles and applications. if you are considering an application somewhat outside the scope described for a particular technique (e.g., a forest growth model that claims to incorporate the effects of climate), get some feedback first. although few tools are fully supported by technical personnel, a few experts on design and application are typically available. seek them out for a consultation, and consider inviting them to work with you and your staff. compare alternatives -- even if you have a preferred source of scientific information for a particular application, it is usually best to compare it with other sources. although no single information source of climatic information may be more "correct" than another, it is helpful to know the differences between sources. you may need to defend the value of your preferred choice, and documentation of alternative approaches for obtaining climatic information allows for ready comparison and development of rationale for your preferences. document the selection process -- take good notes as you go through the process of reviewing and selecting appropriate climatic information and tools. keep a file with appropriate documentation of publications, user guides, scientists consulted, managers
Which country had the extensive snowfall ?
the coastal mountains of western north america
Write the snow cover temperatures ?
5*c of zero
among the varios parameters characterizing changes in snow cover, snow cover duration has the strongest sensitivity to variations in climate.64 maritime climates with extensive winter snowfall (e.g., the coastal mountains of western north america) are most sensitive and continental interior climates with relatively cold, dry winters are least sensitive. the largest observed decreases in snow cover duration are concentrated where seasonal mean air temperatures are within 5*c of zero, a zone which extends around the midlatitudinal coastal margins of the continents. climate model simulations of the 20th century show snow cover changes similar to those observed.64there has been a reduction in the ratio of precipitation falling as snow in the western us that cannot be explained by climate models including only the natural effects of solar and volcanic forcings and which has been attributed to anthropogenic forcings.63,65
What is a simple system composed by?
a simple system is composed by cascade aeration, made up of a sequence of steps in which there is a free fall of the liquid
What may happen to DO values?
do values may raise a few milligrams per litre, depending on the number and height of the steps
Should gravity aeration be used?
gravity aeration should not be used directly for anaerobic effluents, due to the release of h2s in the gas-transfer operation
effluents subjected to final reaeration treatment plant effluents may be subject to a final reaeration stage, in order to increase the level of dissolved oxygen. a simple system is composed by cascade aeration, made up of a sequence of steps in which there is a free fall of the liquid. do values may raise a few milligrams per litre, depending on the number and height of the steps. sufficient head must be available for the free falls. gravity aeration should not be used directly for anaerobic effluents, due to the release of h2s in the gas-transfer operation. section 11.10 presents the methodology for calculating the increase in do. 112 to wastewater characteristics, treatment and disposal
Sometimes experts are unable to deliver needed information, why?
gaps in basic knowledge
What is CAP ?
california applications program
Expand NCS
national climate service
this approach tends to be adopted in situations in which experts are unable to deliver needed information because of gaps in basic knowledge. for instance, the california applications program risa has identified gaps in modeling as an inhibitor of prediction and forecasting. to produce context-sensitive and policyrelevant information to fill these gaps, cap views interaction with decision makers as a means to learn more about how certain resources, for example, forests, estuaries, and fisheries, actually adapt to changes in precipitation or streamflow. the collaborative effort that followed the 2005 scientist-stakeholder workshop on use of paleohydrologic data in water resource management, discussed above in the ''information broker'' discussion, also illustrates this basic research role (see mcnie et al. 2007). risas have been proposed to fulfill part of the research function that a national climate service (ncs) might require, should it become established. the ncs would engage in observations, modeling, and research nested in global, national, and regional scales with a user-centric orientation (miles et al. 2006). the potential for further development of the risas and other boundary-spanning organizations that facilitate knowledge-to-action networks deserves study. while small in size, these programs are very successful long-term efforts by the national government to integrate climate science in sectors and regions across the united states [see p. w. mote's testimony to the house subcommittee on energy and environment (available online at http://democrats.science.house.gov/ media/file/commdocs/hearings/2009/energy/5may/mote_ testimony.pdf) and to the committee on science and technology (available online at http://science.house.gov/ publications/hearings_markups_details.aspx?newsid 5 2449)].
How does tax abatement work for emissions in China?
china experiences a signi fi cant increase in abatement from its crop sector, mostly because of reduced ch4 emissions from the paddy rice sector
Do you tax agricultural products consumed by households?
we explicitly avoid taxing emissions from agricultural products sold in informal markets or consumed directly by households in non-annex i countries
How does your tax assessment work for different locations?
we will assess the effectiveness of this combination of policy incentives in balancing both environmental and social objectives
virtually all of this additional abatement occurs in non-annex i countries. large increases in abatement from livestock are observable in brazil and subsaharan africa, whereas china experiences a signi fi cant increase in abatement from its crop sector, mostly because of reduced ch4 emissions from the paddy rice sector. under this scenario, non-annex i producers are compensated for their emissions tax expenses. in addition, we explicitly avoid taxing emissions from agricultural products sold in informal markets or consumed directly by households in non-annex i countries si appendix section 4 ). below, we will assess the effectiveness of this combination of policy incentives in balancing both environmental and social objectives.
Why does an optimum temperature for growth of 13 * 11*C in the model may also have been unrealistic for the older 3 year S. trutta?
because this value can change with type of diet and the size of the daily energy intake (table ii
What can decrease it too?
increasing fish size and when anadromous species move from fresh to salt water
What does such a model provide?
a useful baseline from which changes in growth can be assessed
c (tables i and ii). an optimum temperature for growth of 13 * 11*c in the model may also have been unrealistic for the older 3 year s. trutta because this value can change with type of diet and the size of the daily energy intake (table ii). it can also decrease with increasing fish size and when anadromous species move from fresh to salt water (jonsson jonsson, 2009). these discrepancies show that the growth model is not a comprehensive model, such a model would require more parameters, but it does provide a useful baseline from which changes in growth can be assessed.
What is age discrimination
summary this paper deals with the emergence of perceived age discrimination climate on the company level and its performance consequences
What is Discrimination Literature
these results make valuable contributions to the diversity and discrimination literature by establishing perceived age discrimination on the company level as a decisive mediator in the age diversity/performance link
summary this paper deals with the emergence of perceived age discrimination climate on the company level and its performance consequences. in this new approach to the field of diversity research, we investigated (a) the effect of organizational-level age diversity on collective perceptions of age discrimination climate that (b) in turn should influence the collective affective commitment of employees, which is (c) an important trigger for overall company performance. in a large-scale study that included 128 companies, a total of 8,651 employees provided data on their perceptions of age discrimination and affective commitment on the company level. information on firm-level performance was collected from key informants. we tested the proposed model using structural equation modeling (sem) procedures and, overall, found support for all hypothesized relationships. the findings demonstrated that age diversity seems to be related to the emergence of an age discrimination climate in companies, which negatively impacts overall firm performance through the mediation of affective commitment. these results make valuable contributions to the diversity and discrimination literature by establishing perceived age discrimination on the company level as a decisive mediator in the age diversity/performance link. the results also suggest important practical implications for the effective management of an increasingly age diverse workforce. copyright 2010 john wiley sons, ltd.
What is the Finnish Meteorological Institute dedicated to?
finnish meteorological institute, p.o. box 503, 00101 helsinki, finland the el nino-southern oscillation (enso) is a pacemaker of global climate, and the accurate prediction of future climate change requires an understanding of the enso variability
How did the first European reconstruction develop?
here we present the fi rst european dendroclimatic precipitation reconstruction that extends through the alternating climate phases of the medieval climate anomaly and the little ice age
What affectations did Europe suffer during the medieval climate anomaly?
we show that northern europe underwent a severe precipitation defi cit during the medieval climate anomaly, which was synchronous with droughts in various enso-sensitive regions worldwide, while the subsequent centuries during the little ice age were markedly wetter. we attribute this drought primarily to an interaction between the enso and the north atlantic oscillation, and to a lesser (or negligible) degree to an interaction between the enso and the atlantic multidecadal oscillation
finnish meteorological institute, p.o. box 503, 00101 helsinki, finland the el nino-southern oscillation (enso) is a pacemaker of global climate, and the accurate prediction of future climate change requires an understanding of the enso variability. recently, much-debated aspects of the enso have included its long-term past and future changes and its associations with the north atlantic and european sectors, potentially in interaction with the north atlantic oscillation and the atlantic multidecadal oscillation. here we present the fi rst european dendroclimatic precipitation reconstruction that extends through the alternating climate phases of the medieval climate anomaly and the little ice age. we show that northern europe underwent a severe precipitation defi cit during the medieval climate anomaly, which was synchronous with droughts in various enso-sensitive regions worldwide, while the subsequent centuries during the little ice age were markedly wetter. we attribute this drought primarily to an interaction between the enso and the north atlantic oscillation, and to a lesser (or negligible) degree to an interaction between the enso and the atlantic multidecadal oscillation.
How many nematodes were analyzed?
at least 300 nematodes were analyzed (more than 100 per sediment core
How are the results presented?
the results are presented as the number of species present in a sample (sample species richness) or as the widely used biodiversity indices
How were replicate sediment samples used?
replicate sediment samples were utilized for meiofaunal extraction and analysis
all biological analyses were carried out in the same laboratory and by the same operators, providing consistency and comparability of the datasets. replicate sediment samples were utilized for meiofaunal extraction and analysis. meiofauna was extracted according to standard protocols (heip et al. 1985). all meiofaunal organisms were counted and identified at the major taxa level under a stereomicroscope. nematodes were sorted and identified to genus and species levels (gambi et al. 2003). deep-sea samples typically included a large number of new or incertae saedis species, which were identified at genus level, followed by species 1 species 2, etc., in order to allow the calculation of biodiversity indices also at the species level. at each sampling time and station, the nematode diversity was calculated from three independent sediment cores. at least 300 nematodes were analyzed (more than 100 per sediment core). the results are presented as the number of species present in a sample (sample species richness) or as the widely used biodiversity indices. species richness (sr)
What did the 1898 Electritcity Act do?
the 1989 electricity act set out the framework for privatisation of the electricity industry (uk government, 1989), with the key objectives of reducing prices and increasing consumer choice
Where did the government find itself in the wake of electricity privatisation?
in the wake of electricity privatisation, the government found itself in a strong position to argue for greenhouse gas emissions reductions, largely because of fuel switching in electricity production - the socalled 'dash for gas
Who did the UK actively support ?
the uk actively supported the united nations framework convention on climate change signed in rio de janeiro in 1992, and has continued to be assertive in the international arena (see for example uk government, 2005
in the 1990s the primary focus of uk energy policy, under successive administrations, was the shifting of ownership and management of the energy network from the public to the private sector, in keeping with a neoliberalist political agenda. the 1989 electricity act set out the framework for privatisation of the electricity industry (uk government, 1989), with the key objectives of reducing prices and increasing consumer choice. this process also laid the foundation for the uk's approach to climate change. in the wake of electricity privatisation, the government found itself in a strong position to argue for greenhouse gas emissions reductions, largely because of fuel switching in electricity production - the socalled 'dash for gas'. the uk actively supported the united nations framework convention on climate change signed in rio de janeiro in 1992, and has continued to be assertive in the international arena (see for example uk government, 2005). domestically, debate centred initially on the potential of a carbon tax (which met significant opposition), on encouraging energy efficiency in households and businesses, and on renewable energy 10 10 support mechanisms, in the form of the non-fossil fuel obligation (collier, 1997; o'riordan and rowbotham, 1996).iv
What does the new "global deal" scenario consist of?
this alternative strategy is based on the idea of creating a climate regime in an incremental fashion, based on partial agreements and governance mechanisms
what are the advantages of redefining international climate policy?
it would allow for a disaggregation of the negotiations into a proper multitrack approach. this would enable parties to secure 'low-hanging fruits' and thereby avoid early and ambitious action in some areas to be held hostage to failure to resolve other areas of contention. it would also separate the controversial question of the legal status of any agreement on climate from the need to secure a political consensus on a range of mitigation and adaptation strategies
how the building blocks approach would be a disadvantage?
it would involve a departure from the established principle in international environmental negotiations that 'nothing is agreed until everything is agreed'. this principle has promoted grand bargains to be struck based on a complex web of concessions across a range of issues and countries. the building blocks approach would prevent such a grand bargain and may thus deter parties from making necessary concessions in one area without securing other parties' concessions in others
given the deadlock in current international negotiations, what should be the strategy of those wishing to strengthen international climate policy? our analysis suggests that the push for a 'global deal' is producing diminishing returns and that parties may need to consider a second best scenario. this alternative strategy is based on the idea of creating a climate regime in an incremental fashion, based on partial agreements and governance mechanisms. while the objective of a universal and comprehensive treaty with firm commitments for emission reductions remains valid, a building blocks approach is needed to realise this objective. our review of the international climate negotiations from the early 1990s onwards shows that the global deal strategy has been successful in driving the international process forward and creating political momentum behind global climate protection. but it has repeatedly come up against resistance by large emitters and is unlikely to succeed in bringing future negotiations to a rapid conclusion. the next conference of the parties in mexico at the end of 2010 is not expected to produce agreement on a binding treaty. and the copenhagen accord points in the direction of a different international process, based on multilevel policies and initiatives. to some extent, therefore, international climate policy is already being redefined as an ongoing process that combines parallel efforts to create partial agreements on building blocks of global climate governance. such a building blocks approach offers some hope of breaking the current stalemate, even though it provides no guarantee of success. it would allow for a disaggregation of the negotiations into a proper multitrack approach. this would enable parties to secure 'low-hanging fruits' and thereby avoid early and ambitious action in some areas to be held hostage to failure to resolve other areas of contention. it would also separate the controversial question of the legal status of any agreement on climate from the need to secure a political consensus on a range of mitigation and adaptation strategies. there are important drawbacks to such an approach. it would involve a departure from the established principle in international environmental negotiations that 'nothing is agreed until everything is agreed'. this principle has promoted grand bargains to be struck based on a complex web of concessions across a range of issues and countries. the building blocks approach would prevent such a grand bargain and may thus deter parties from making necessary concessions in one area without securing other parties' concessions in others. in addition, because buildings blocks do not require universal participation, they may reduce the urgency of concerted global cooperation (biermann et al.,
What appropach is used when quantifying climate change impact?
water balance simulation modelling approach has been used to maintain the dynamics of hydrology
it has been one of the challenging studies for quantifying the climate change impact wherein the water balance simulation modelling approach has been used to maintain the dynamics of hydrology and thereby make assessments of vulnerability which are more authentic and reliable. usefulness of such handling has been proved by the fact that the results of the ghg scenarios have been dictated by temporal variability at daily level as well as the spatial state of the land mass in terms of its moisture conditions and land use. the study has revealed that under the ghg scenario the conditions may deteriorate in terms of severity of droughts in some parts of the country and enhanced intensity of floods in other parts of the country. however, there is a general overall reduction in the quantity of the available runoff under the ghg scenario. luni with the westflowing rivers kutch and saurastra which occupies about one fourth of the area of gujarat and 60 per cent of the area of rajasthan shall face acute water scarce conditions. river basins of mahi, pennar, sabarmati and tapi shall also face water shortage conditions. river basins belonging to cauvery, ganga, narmada and krishna shall experience seasonal or regular water-stressed conditions. river basins belonging to godavari, brahmani and mahanadi shall not have water shortages but are predicted to face severe flood conditions11. these predicted climate change impacts may induce additional stresses and shall need various adaptation strategies to be taken up. the strategies may range from change in land use, cropping pattern to water conservation, flood warning systems, etc. and need rigorous integrated analysis before paving way into policy decisions.
What question does this article seek to address?
this article considers scientific and public understandings of climate change and addresses the following question: why is it that while scientific evidence has accumulated to document global climate change and scientific opinion has solidified about its existence and causes, u.s. public opinion has not and has instead become more polarized
What does the review support?
our review supports a constructivist account of human judgment
What concludes the discussion?
we conclude by discussing ways in which psychology can help to improve public understanding of climate change and link a better understanding to action
elke u. weber columbia university paul c. stern national research council this article considers scientific and public understandings of climate change and addresses the following question: why is it that while scientific evidence has accumulated to document global climate change and scientific opinion has solidified about its existence and causes, u.s. public opinion has not and has instead become more polarized? our review supports a constructivist account of human judgment. public understanding is affected by the inherent difficulty of understanding climate change, the mismatch between people's usual modes of understanding and the task, and, particularly in the united states, a continuing societal struggle to shape the frames and mental models people use to understand the phenomena. we conclude by discussing ways in which psychology can help to improve public understanding of climate change and link a better understanding to action. keywords: risk perception, climate change perception, mental models, expert-novice differences "
What actions can be taken to deal with thermal discomfort?
when people take actions in response to a thermal environment that is causing discomfort these actions take time to accomplish. a number of actions can be taken: some, like opening a window, take little time, while others, such as the change of fashion from winter to summer clothes, take longer
Are actions sufficient for all climate changes?
the change is fast enough to keep up with the fluctuations in the weather from season to season but not always quick enough to account for all the changes in the weather
how the effects of time can be included in the comfort and adaptation model?
box 9.8 suggests a way in which the effects of time can be included in the model of comfort and adaptation
when people take actions in response to a thermal environment that is causing discomfort these actions take time to accomplish. a number of actions can be taken: some, like opening a window, take little time, while others, such as the change of fashion from winter to summer clothes, take longer. the change is fast enough to keep up with the fluctuations in the weather from season to season but not always quick enough to account for all the changes in the weather. 18 in his comparison between outdoor temperature and the comfort temperature indoors (see figure 9.4 ), humphreys (1978) 11 used records of the monthly mean of the outdoor air temperature as the defining variable as do dedear and brager 6 the weather can change dramatically within a month and both people and the buildings they inhabit change at a rate that will not be reflected by a monthly estimate. box 9.8 suggests a way in which the effects of time can be included in the model of comfort and adaptation.
.How The actual health impacts will be strongly influenced?
the actual health impacts will be strongly influenced by local environmental conditions and socio-economic circumstances, and by the range of social, institutional, technological, and behavioral adaptations taken to reduce the full range of threats to health
What  will be altered by climate change and sealevel rise?
ecological productivity and biodiversity
What Significant disruptions of ecosystem we can expect?
fire, drought, pest infestation, invasion of species, storms, and coral bleaching events are expected
the severity of the adverse impacts will be larger for greater cumulative emissions of greenhouse gases and associated changes in climate (medium confidence). while beneficial effects can be identified for some regions and sectors for small amounts of climate change, these are expected to diminish as the magnitude of climate change increases. in contrast many identified adverse effects are expected to increase in both extent and severity with the degree of climate change. when considered by region, adverse effects are projected to predominate for much of the world, particularly in the tropics and subtropics. overall, climate change is projected to increase threats to human health, particularly in lower income populations, predominantly within tropical/subtropical countries. climate change can affect human health directly (e.g., reduced cold stress in temperate countries but increased heat stress, loss of life in floods and storms) and indirectly through changes in the ranges of disease vectors (e.g., mosquitoes),3 water-borne pathogens, water quality, air quality, and food availability and quality medium to high confidence ). the actual health impacts will be strongly influenced by local environmental conditions and socio-economic circumstances, and by the range of social, institutional, technological, and behavioral adaptations taken to reduce the full range of threats to health. ecological productivity and biodiversity will be altered by climate change and sealevel rise, with an increased risk of extinction of some vulnerable species (high to medium confidence). significant disruptions of ecosystems from disturbances such as fire, drought, pest infestation, invasion of species, storms, and coral bleaching events are expected to
Between what months were the glacier mass balance closely related to atmospheric conditions ?
during the austral summer months october-april
Over the last decade, what made it possible to analyze the response of Chacaltaya glacier to recent climate change in great detail?
accurate mass balance measurements conducted on a monthly basis
Mass balance data before what year are from Francou et al. [2000]?
1991
accurate mass balance measurements conducted on a monthly basis over the last decade made it possible to analyze the response of chacaltaya glacier to recent climate change in great detail. an energy balance study, performed on the nearby zongo glacier enabled us to understand the processes responsible for the ablation on the glacier surface. finally the influence of the large-scale circulation and tropical sst on chacaltaya mass balance was investigated. as principal results, we point out the following: 1. the glacier mass balance is closely related to atmospheric conditions during the austral summer months october-april, in particular during december-february. 2. at this time of year (ondjfma), humidity levels are high, and therefore melting predominates over sublimation. net all-wave radiation, via albedo and incoming long-wave radiation, is the dominant factor which governs ablation. albedo depends on precipitation, which is always solid at this elevation. a deficit of precipitation at the end of the transition period and in the core of the wet season (djf) delays the installation of the fresh snow cover and maintains the low albedo bare ice in contact with the atmosphere late during the summer, leading to an enhanced absorption of solar radiation and thus, to increased melting. at the same time such a situation is associated with reduced cloudiness, which increases the amount of incoming solar radiation received at the glacier surface, an effect that is enhanced on the south-oriented chacaltaya glacier. 3. there is a strong correlation between mass balance and reanalyzed temperature on interannual timescales. figure 9. linear relationship between subdecadal to multidecadal averages of chacaltaya mass balance and asondjf ssta in the nin~o 1+2 region. ssta are based on 1951-80 average; mass balance values are averages of annual totals (oct.-sept.). note that time intervals overlap and their length varies. mass balance data before 1991 are from francou et al. [2000].
What will decline by 20 percent by 2030?
the acg reported csiro modeling for the murray-darling basin that projected stream flows
what are projected to increase?
drought frequency and its severity within the basin are also projected to increase with adverse impacts on rural businesses, infrastructure and greater loss of soil and biodiversity is expected
What impacts have climate change had?
the impact of climate change with its winter rainfall having decreased by 10 to 20 per cent over the last 30 years and having experienced an overall warming of its daily temperatures
the acg reported csiro modeling for the murray-darling basin that projected stream flows to decline by up to 20 per cent by 2030 and up to 45 per cent by 2070, although much variation surrounded these projections. acg forecast problems of water shortages and increased competition for water. this issue is of particular concern as the murray darling basin is a major source of runoff in southern australia (see figure 4). the basin and its runoff support a range of agricultural industries, towns and adelaide depends on the basin's runoff for some of its water supply via the murray river. within the basin are around 30,000 wetlands dependent on run-off and the bulk of australia's irrigation area is also within the basin. drought frequency and its severity within the basin are also projected to increase with adverse impacts on rural businesses, infrastructure and greater loss of soil and biodiversity is expected. drought impacts could accelerate woody weed invasions. acg also reported on the south west of western australia. they suggested that this region is likely to already be experiencing the impact of climate change with its winter rainfall having decreased by 10 to 20 per cent over the last 30 years and having experienced an overall warming of its daily temperatures. further declines in rainfall are expected to greatly reduce plant production, affecting crops and pastures and reducing the productivity of animal production. similar findings were generated by van ittersum et al (2003) who used apsim (mccown et al 1996) to review how changes in co2 concentration, temperature and precipitation might affect wheat production (the main crop) in western australia. their results suggest that moderate
What was implemented by the Municipality of faenza?
the municipality of faenza has implemented a bio-neighbourhood incentive programme for developers
What was achieved by the incentive programme?
the incentive programme aims to achieve energy savings, promote aesthetic qualities of neighbourhoods, and also create better microclimate conditions to prepare for future rising temperatures associated with climate change
What was included in the bioneighbourhood  by developers?
these include green roofs, green walls and water retention systems, and also the creation of continuous public green spaces by developers
the municipality of faenza has implemented a bio-neighbourhood incentive programme for developers. this is included in their town planning regulations. the incentive programme aims to achieve energy savings, promote aesthetic qualities of neighbourhoods, and also create better microclimate conditions to prepare for future rising temperatures associated with climate change. the incentive programme allows developers to extend the cubature of buildings in bioneighbourhoods in excess of approved standards, if the buildings meet certain criteria of environmental sustainability. these include green roofs, green walls and water retention systems, and also the creation of continuous public green spaces by developers. the unique characteristic
The conclustion of S6 SEPTEMPER 2013 based on which senario?
s6 september 2013 lastly, we emphasize that these conclusions are based on a single pattern of sst changes that were developed from a gcm to create the "natural" scenario
Why the lack of change of preciptation between the two senarios increases?
it is possible, for example, that while overall global warming could increase the likelihood of periods of very low precipitation in the region, the lack of change in precipitation between the two scenarios may have arisen because of the particular spatial pattern of differential warming/cooling of ssts that was imposed
According to the text does this result enough to draw a conclusion of the causes of the 2012  US draught?
in conclusion, these results should not stand alone but form one step towards a comprehensive analysis of the causes of the 2012 u.s. drought
s6 september 2013 lastly, we emphasize that these conclusions are based on a single pattern of sst changes that were developed from a gcm to create the "natural" scenario. it is possible, for example, that while overall global warming could increase the likelihood of periods of very low precipitation in the region, the lack of change in precipitation between the two scenarios may have arisen because of the particular spatial pattern of differential warming/cooling of ssts that was imposed. we expect to test this hypothesis through an ensemble of sst changes derived from various cmip5 ensemble members. in conclusion, these results should not stand alone but form one step towards a comprehensive analysis of the causes of the 2012 u.s. drought.
What does the study shows?
the study has shown that there is substantial empirical overlap between some aspects of organizational climate and employee affect indexed as overall job satisfaction
What is the first thing we can do?
for instance, organizational climate concerns a described situation, whereas job satisfaction reflects feelings and evaluations
What is the second thing we can do?
second, how can we best learn about causal sources if a measure of climate is likely second, how can we best learn about causal sources if a measure of climate is likely
the study has shown that there is substantial empirical overlap between some aspects of organizational climate and employee affect indexed as overall job satisfaction. it appears that sometimes when we measure a feature of organizational climate we also pick up associated job satisfaction or other evaluative responses. in seeking to account for an outcome such as subsequent company productivity, we in seeking to account for an outcome such as subsequent company productivity, we should not necessarily infer from significant climate-productivity correlations that climate is a direct cause of that outcome. causal influence may be at least in part indirect, through correlated variables such as satisfaction. this possibility is in principle widely known, but is often forgotten. given the strong empirical overlap between climate and affect, two questions deserve given the strong empirical overlap between climate and affect, two questions deserve consideration. first, are those constructs in fact different? in conceptual terms, they certainly are, being defined in very different ways. for instance, organizational climate concerns a described situation, whereas job satisfaction reflects feelings and evaluations. the concepts' separation is also supported empirically, by the finding that not all the aspects of climate studied here are significantly associated with job satisfaction. however, given that (as illustrated earlier) descriptions often carry with them evaluations, and given that evaluations usually derive from perceptions, the two notions necessarily overlap despite being definitionally separate. second, how can we best learn about causal sources if a measure of climate is likely second, how can we best learn about causal sources if a measure of climate is likely
What are the advantages of the result?
the advantage is that the results are expressed in a standard concentration (the interpretation of the other svi tests is subject to the influence of the initial ss concentration
Why is this concentration selected?
the concentration of 3.5 g/l is selected, because it represents an usual value of the mixed liquor suspended solids (mlss) concentration in aeration tanks of the activated sludge process
what does the test results represent?
this test is the most representative and less subject to distortions. 448 basic principles of wastewater treatment
test with stirring and expression of the results in a standard concentration of 3.5 g/l (3500 mg/l) (ssvi3.5) the advantage is that the results are expressed in a standard concentration (the interpretation of the other svi tests is subject to the influence of the initial ss concentration). the concentration of 3.5 g/l is selected, because it represents an usual value of the mixed liquor suspended solids (mlss) concentration in aeration tanks of the activated sludge process. this test is undertaken for different initial concentrations (obtained through dilutions and concentrations of the sample), and the results are interpolated for a concentration of 3.5 g/l. this test is the most representative and less subject to distortions. 448 basic principles of wastewater treatment
Why is it important to know the behaviour of the pathogenic organisms in the water body, starting from the discharge point until places where water is likely to be used?
a water body receiving the discharge of sewage may incorporate into itself a wide range of pathogenic organisms. this fact may not generate a direct impact on the aquatic organisms themselves, but may affect some of prevailing uses of the water, such as potable water supply, irrigation and bathing
What is used as indicators of whether water contains faecal contamination?
bacteria of the coliform group are used as indicators of faecal contamination
one of the most important aspects of water pollution is that related with public health, associated with water-borne diseases. this topic, including the main pathogens of interest and the concept of indicator organisms of faecal contamination, is discussed in chapter 2. a water body receiving the discharge of sewage may incorporate into itself a wide range of pathogenic organisms. this fact may not generate a direct impact on the aquatic organisms themselves, but may affect some of prevailing uses of the water, such as potable water supply, irrigation and bathing. therefore, it is very important to know the behaviour of the pathogenic organisms in the water body, starting from the discharge point until places where water is likely to be used. it is known that most of these agents have optimal conditions for their growth and reproduction in the human intestinal tract. once submitted to the adverse conditions that prevail in the water body, they tend to decrease in number, characterising the so-called decay in chapter 2 it was seen that the bacteria of the coliform group are used as indicators of faecal contamination that is, they indicate if the water has been contaminated by faeces and, as a result, if it presents a potential for having pathogens 126 to wastewater characteristics, treatment and disposal
How has temperature change reflected uncertainty?
the ranges in the climate change projections reflect the uncertainties arising from differences in model formulation and in emissions scenarios but are, to some extent, affected by the internal variability of climate as well
How do we know climate will change?
based on a literature review, it seems very likely that changes in mean climate are associated with changes in climate extremes as well
How long have we been tracking climate chang?
on the basis of fifteen global model simulations of future climate, using the sres emissions scenarios for greenhouse gases and aerosols, we have constructed nationalscale seasonal and annual climate change scenarios for finland during the 21st century. in approximate terms, the annual mean temperature is projected to rise by 1-3 degc and the annual mean precipitation by 0%-15% by the 2020s, relative to the baseline period 1961-1990
on the basis of fifteen global model simulations of future climate, using the sres emissions scenarios for greenhouse gases and aerosols, we have constructed nationalscale seasonal and annual climate change scenarios for finland during the 21st century. in approximate terms, the annual mean temperature is projected to rise by 1-3 degc and the annual mean precipitation by 0%-15% by the 2020s, relative to the baseline period 1961-1990. the corresponding increases by the 2050s are 2-5 degc (temperature) and 0%-30% (precipitation), while by the 2080s they are 2-7 degc and 5%-40%, respectively. the projected temperature trends are markedly stronger than that observed during the 20th century. the ranges in the climate change projections reflect the uncertainties arising from differences in model formulation and in emissions scenarios but are, to some extent, affected by the internal variability of climate as well. seasonally, the projected precipitation changes and their statistical significance are largest in winter and smallest in summer. on the other hand, the projected rather small summertime warming is at least as statistically significant as the larger warming in the other seasons. based on a literature review, it seems very likely that changes in mean climate are associated with changes in climate extremes as well.
Moving space response functions:
moving interval response functions suggest an extension of the water-stress period from mid-summer to late summer (from august to september temperature) and a strengthening of the climate-growth relationship
Define Tree Growth?
treegrowth has increased its negative correlation with prior september temperature and its positive correlation with prior november temperature along the 20th century (fig. 8
Explain A change in the tree-growth described?
this change in the climatic response was produced at the same time that the change in the tree-growth pattern described above. while the evolution of the correlation coefficients with prior august-september temperature was common for the three species, the november temperature correlation trend was particular for p. uncinata therefore, excluding november temperature, late summer temperatures previous to growth may be the climatic driver of the observed tree-growth pattern change among forests in the iberian peninsula
moving interval response functions suggest an extension of the water-stress period from mid-summer to late summer (from august to september temperature) and a strengthening of the climate-growth relationship. treegrowth has increased its negative correlation with prior september temperature and its positive correlation with prior november temperature along the 20th century (fig. 8). moreover, the most remarkable result was that correlation values became significant in the '1930-1967' period (around 1949). this change in the climatic response was produced at the same time that the change in the tree-growth pattern described above. while the evolution of the correlation coefficients with prior august-september temperature was common for the three species, the november temperature correlation trend was particular for p. uncinata therefore, excluding november temperature, late summer temperatures previous to growth may be the climatic driver of the observed tree-growth pattern change among forests in the iberian peninsula, indicating an increase in water stress effects on radial growth during the last half of the 20th century. these findings were in agreement with the significant temperature increases observed in these months (fig. 6a). similarly, enhanced abies alba water stress has been reported in northern spain (macias et al ., 2006). another study in alaska also pointed out that temperature explained more variability in white spruce radial growth after 1950, suggesting that a true climatic control was involved (wilmking et al ., 2004).
What is to be achieved?
new areas of research if the goal of integrated modeling of agricultural systems with broadened boundaries is to be achieved, a better understanding of some of the key interactions are needed
What should be  included in a comprehensive study of interactions?
climate-agriculture-environment interactions may be one of the more important vulnerabilities, but existing research is extremely limited. effects on soil, water quality, and air quality should be included in a comprehensive study of interactions
What is one of the most important vulnerabilities?
climate-agriculture-environment interactions may be one of the more important vulnerabilities, but existing research is extremely limited
new areas of research if the goal of integrated modeling of agricultural systems with broadened boundaries is to be achieved, a better understanding of some of the key interactions are needed. experimentation and modeling of interactions of multiple environmental changes on crops (changing temperature, co2 levels, ozone, soil conditions, moisture, etc.) are needed. the environmental conditions interact in complex ways. experimental evidence is needed under realistic field conditions, such as face experiments for co2 enrichment, that also consider multiple stressors. much more work on agricultural pests and their response to climate change is needed. economic analysis needs to better study the dynamics of adjustment to changing conditions. climate-agriculture-environment interactions may be one of the more important vulnerabilities, but existing research is extremely limited. effects on soil, water quality, and air quality should be included in a comprehensive study of interactions. finally, the area of changing variability requires more attention. a fundamental principle in this regard is that agricultural modeling must be more closely integrated with climate modeling so that modelers can develop better techniques for assessing the impacts of climate variability. this work requires significant advances in climate predictions to better represent changes in variability, as well as assessment of and improvements in the performance of crop models under extreme conditions.
Why is it potentially easier to implement climate change actions in authoritarian style governments?
public understanding of climate change or affective engagement would then be largely unnecessary to motivate implementation of ghg mitigation measures
In 20 years of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, has there been effective action by national leaders to produce and implement meaningful climate change solutions?
second, in light of the now almost 20-year history of largely unsuccessful international negotiations on emissions reductions under the un framework convention on climate change, and the lack of effective action by many national leaders to produce and implement meaningful solutions, a 'leadersatthetop-only' solution is already not being realized and seems very unlikely in the consensus-based system of the un framework convention on climate change
The conclusion of the paragraph states which individuals at all levels play important roles in achieving the radical reductions in GHG emission?
the political reality and both normative and strategic arguments suggest that individuals at all levels play important roles in achieving the radical reductions in ghg emissions
more generally, whether and what depth of understanding is necessary for effective mitigation action on climate change depends on what type of action is sought and how we understand the political system. of course, it could be argued that in governance systems other than democracies, and in situations where exclusive top-down policy making of the authoritarian style is considered favorable and feasible, only individuals in leadership positions would be influential actors on climate change. action by individuals (and the masses) then could--theoretically--result simply from their enactment of the rules set in place by those in power. public understanding of climate change or affective engagement would then be largely unnecessary to motivate implementation of ghg mitigation measures. in practice, however, this type of dictatorial action on climate change is extremely unlikely for at least three reasons. first, top-down policy making has been found to be less than effective without public buy-in given the unstable realities of party politics of most democracies.68,69political support for and public engagement in climate change policies are needed for political leaders to realize emissions reductions. second, in light of the now almost 20-year history of largely unsuccessful international negotiations on emissions reductions under the un framework convention on climate change, and the lack of effective action by many national leaders to produce and implement meaningful solutions, a 'leadersatthetop-only' solution is already not being realized and seems very unlikely in the consensus-based system of the un framework convention on climate change. and finally, current discourses about bottom-up and informed decision making, participation, and deliberation suggest that (overtly) authoritarian governance has largely, with some notable exceptions, gone out of fashion.70given further that most major ghg emitting countries are in fact nominal democracies, at least some degree of electoral and political support for mitigation policies is a required (but probably insufficient) prerequisite for effective ghg reduction. these arguments do not preclude that a more strategic approach to communication may be needed to reach large-scale policy goals, and that it would be wise to employ the power of social relations to target primarily influential elites who in turn reach wider audiences.71,72however, the political reality and both normative and strategic arguments suggest that individuals at all levels play important roles in achieving the radical reductions in ghg emissions that many now view as necessary (see also ref 73).
Climate change is expected to causes changes to what, as discussed in chapter 1?
as discussed in chapter 1, climate change is expected to cause changes to streamflow, precipitation, and other hydroclimatic variables
Why must trend detection be carried out with care?
trend detection must be carried out with care, as trends may also be caused by land use changes, changes in water infrastructure, or other factors. furthermore, while the magnitude of a trend may be relatively easy to quantify, its statistical significance may be more ambiguous because of natural climate variability and long-term persistence, which can cause oscillatory patterns in long-term hydroclimatic records (cohn and lins, 200\\x04). * * * 2 tracking climate change impacts 13 box 2.1 key usgs monitoring networks for water resources management
What are critical for detecting trends or shifts in the statistics of historical streamflow or other hydroclimatic variables?
the continuous long-term streamflow and meteorological records described in the preceding section are critical for detecting trends or shifts in the statistics of historical streamflow or other hydroclimatic variables. such nonstationarity in hydroclimatic conditions would represent a change from the assumptions that have been used to design and manage water resource systems
as discussed in chapter 1, climate change is expected to cause changes to streamflow, precipitation, and other hydroclimatic variables. the continuous long-term streamflow and meteorological records described in the preceding section are critical for detecting trends or shifts in the statistics of historical streamflow or other hydroclimatic variables. such nonstationarity in hydroclimatic conditions would represent a change from the assumptions that have been used to design and manage water resource systems. consequently, it is important to know if and how trends manifest themselves. trend detection must be carried out with care, as trends may also be caused by land use changes, changes in water infrastructure, or other factors. furthermore, while the magnitude of a trend may be relatively easy to quantify, its statistical significance may be more ambiguous because of natural climate variability and long-term persistence, which can cause oscillatory patterns in long-term hydroclimatic records (cohn and lins, 200\\x04). * * * 2 tracking climate change impacts 13 box 2.1 key usgs monitoring networks for water resources management
What does economics literature examine on weather  in relation to large policy changes ?
the economics literature examines how the relationship between weather variables and economic variables of interest might change due to large policy changes
What are some of the factors influencing  large policy changes ?
large policy changes, such as a country becoming independent, or an extreme exogenous shock, such as a natural disaster 
What is the  most obvious method of  accounting for such changes and what is the major concern for this approach?
the most obvious method for accounting for such changes is the now standard difference-in-difference analysis. one concern with this approach is that if the degree of measurement error varies between the preand postintervention (or event) date, the treatment effect estimate will very likely be biased because of classic attenuation bias concerns
the final pitfall concerns why weather stations are observed in some areas and time periods and not in others. one strand of the economics literature examines how the relationship between weather variables and economic variables of interest might change due to large policy changes, such as a country becoming independent, or an extreme exogenous shock, such as a natural disaster (kahn 2005). the most obvious method for accounting for such changes is the now standard difference-in-difference analysis. one concern with this approach is that if the degree of measurement error varies between the preand postintervention (or event) date, the treatment effect estimate will very likely be biased because of classic attenuation bias concerns. however, if weather variables are measured consistently, the difference-in-difference
Explain marine ecosystem mode?
the marine ecosystem model (figure a1) is an improved version of schmittner et al. [2005a] and includes interactive cycling of nitrogen, phosphorus and oxygen. it is based on seven prognostic variables and embedded within the ocean circulation model
What are  biological variables ?
the biological variables include two classes of phytoplankton, nitrogen-fixing diazotrophs (pd), and other phytoplankton (po), as well as zooplankton (z) and particulate detritus (d); all biological variables are expressed in units of mmol nitrogen per m3
the marine ecosystem model (figure a1) is an improved version of schmittner et al. [2005a] and includes interactive cycling of nitrogen, phosphorus and oxygen. it is based on seven prognostic variables and embedded within the ocean circulation model. the inorganic variables include dissolved oxygen (o2) and two nutrients, nitrate (no3) and phosphate (po4) which are linked through exchanges with the biological variables by constant  redfield) stoichiometry (table a1). the biological variables include two classes of phytoplankton, nitrogen-fixing diazotrophs (pd), and other phytoplankton (po), as well as zooplankton (z) and particulate detritus (d); all biological variables are expressed in units of mmol nitrogen per m3. although very simple, this ecological structure captures the essential dynamic of competition for phosphorus highlighted by tyrell [1999], in which phytoplankton capable of rapid growth using available nutrients (po) are pitted against slow growers capable of fixing their own supply of nitrogen (pd). additional information on the nitrogen cycle is given by schmittner et al. [2007a]. each variable changes its concentration c according to the following equation
What was used to assess vulnerability of blanket peat to climate change?
we assessed the vulnerability of blanket peat to climate change in great britain using an ensemble of 8 bioclimatic envelope models
What do the results suggest?
these results suggest a long-term decline in the distribution of actively growing blanket peat, especially under the high emissions scenario, although it is emphasised that existing peatlands may well persist for decades under a changing climate
Which regions were shown to be more vulnerable?
eastern regions (northumbria, north york moors, orkney) were shown to be more vulnerable than higher-altitude, western areas (highlands, western isles and argyle, bute and the trossachs
we assessed the vulnerability of blanket peat to climate change in great britain using an ensemble of 8 bioclimatic envelope models. we used 4 published models that ranged from simple threshold models, based on total annual precipitation, to generalised linear models (glms, based on mean annual temperature). in addition, 4 new models were developed which included measures of water deficit as threshold, classification tree, glm and generalised additive models (gam). models that included measures of both hydrological conditions and maximum temperature provided a better fit to the mapped peat area than models based on hydrological variables alone. under ukcip02 projections for high (a1f1) and low (b1) greenhouse gas emission scenarios, 7 out of the 8 models showed a decline in the bioclimatic space associated with blanket peat. eastern regions (northumbria, north york moors, orkney) were shown to be more vulnerable than higher-altitude, western areas (highlands, western isles and argyle, bute and the trossachs). these results suggest a long-term decline in the distribution of actively growing blanket peat, especially under the high emissions scenario, although it is emphasised that existing peatlands may well persist for decades under a changing climate. observational data from long-term monitoring and manipulation experiments in combination with process-based models are required to explore the nature and magnitude of climate change impacts on these vulnerable areas more fully. key words: climate change * peat * bioclimatic envelope model * great britain * uplands
As the Earth warms, at which latitudes will precipitation increase-- high or low?
pcc projections indicate increased precipitation along the equator and at higher latitudes and decreased precipitation along lower to midlatitudes
What are some effects of changes in precipitation within catchments that drain to coastal waters?
changes in precipitation within the catchments draining to coastal waters have substantial consequences for coastal ecosystems, affecting salinity, density stratification, and the delivery of sediments and nutrients
Do higher temperatures increase or decrease evapotranspiration?
warmer temperatures increase evapotranspiration and affect whether precipitation falls as rain or snow
precipitation is substantially affected by the warming of earth's atmosphere and oceans. warmer temperatures increase evaporation from ocean and land surfaces, resulting in increased precipitation elsewhere to balance the water cycle (41). ipcc projections indicate increased precipitation along the equator and at higher latitudes and decreased precipitation along lower to midlatitudes (32)--changes that seem to be already occurring more rapidly than predicted (42). several semienclosed seas with important coastal zones fall within the zone of projected decreases in precipitation, including the gulf of california, gulf of mexico, caribbean sea, and mediterranean sea. changes in precipitation within the catchments draining to coastal waters have substantial consequences for coastal ecosystems, affecting salinity, density stratification, and the delivery of sediments and nutrients. however, it is not straightforward to translate increases or decreases in precipitation into changes in delivery of freshwater into coastal waters. warmer temperatures increase evapotranspiration and affect whether precipitation falls as rain or snow, thus altering the timing of delivery; and in many regions, precipitation is expected to come in more intense events, separated by longer dry periods (15, 43). changes in freshwater discharge and temperature in coastal systems will interact with changes in other atmospheric and oceanic conditions and sea level to create new sets of conditions that alter coastal ecosystems as we know them. these new conditions require adjustments to how these systems are being managed. modeling the effects of these interactive forces over this century for california's san francisco bay-delta-river system has demonstrated how key indicators of hydrology and habitat quality can change substantially (44).
What will large-scale adoption of wind or solar result in short term?
large-scale adoption of wind or solar will, in the short term, result in deep displacements of existing generators fig. s7 
What will be the effects of large-scale adoption of wind or solar in the long term?
in the long-term, large-scale adoption of wind or solar will affect investment and retirement decisions for conventional generators
What will the "best" sites for wind and solar depend on?
ultimately, the " best " sites for wind and solar will depend on both private and social costs
this analysis assumes that wind and solar displace damages from marginal electricity production. in other words, we are evaluating the bene fi ts of a nearterm, small-scale intervention. large-scale adoption of wind or solar will, in the short term, result in deep displacements of existing generators fig. s7 ). in such cases, coal accounts for a greater share of displaced generation in most regions, resulting in even greater reductions in pollution-related damages fig. s8 ). with increased penetration of wind or solar, conventional generators may be required to cycle more often, resulting in an emissions penalty (2, 20, 21); these effects are not captured in our analysis. in the long-term, large-scale adoption of wind or solar will affect investment and retirement decisions for conventional generators. although this may have a signi fi cant impact on emissions, a full analysis of these issues is beyond the scope of this work. the implications of large-scale interventions are discussed further in si text discussion if the goal of renewable energy is to mitigate climate change or reduce human-health impacts, then the sites with the highest energy output are not the best choice in many cases. we fi nd that a solar panel in new jersey displaces signi fi cantly more criteria pollutants than a panel in arizona, resulting in 15 times more health and environmental bene fi ts. similarly, despite the excellent resource, a wind turbine on the plains of montana displaces 45% less co2 emissions than a turbine in west virginia. these results are driven primarily by regional variations in the generation mix: there are signi fi cantly greater bene fi ts when wind or solar displace coalor oil-, rather than gasfi red, generators. we estimate that the social bene fi ts of wind and solar are more than $40/mwh in much of the united states and as high as $100/mwh in the parts of the mid-atlantic and midwest fig. s2 ). this suggests that appropriately valuing health, environmental, and climate impacts would signi fi cantly improve the competitiveness of wind and solar in some regions. in places like california, given how clean the electricity mix already is, additional investments in wind and solar achieve comparatively little health and environmental bene fi ts. there are also regional differences in the private costs and bene fi ts of renewable energy, which have not been considered here. capital and labor costs, availability of transmission, and the price of electricity all vary by location. ultimately, the " best " sites for wind and solar will depend on both private and social costs. if emissions were priced at the level of social damages, either through a tax or cap-and-trade policy, then electricity generators and consumers would internalize those costs. private investors would then choose locations for wind and solar installations according to the full cost of electricity, which would account for the regional differences illustrated above. however, the united states currently lacks a national policy covering co2 emissions, and existing cap-and-trade programs value so2 emissions well below the level of social damages. in the absence of more comprehensive policies, it is likely that direct subsidies for renewables will remain an important policy instrument. we provide a fi rst-order evaluation of the production tax credit and conclude that the cost of the subsidy is justi fi ed on a national basis. we estimate that the social bene fi ts from existing wind farms are ~ 60% greater than the cost of the tax credit. however, we argue that nationwide production-based subsidies are a crude policy instrument because they fail to re fl ect regional differences in the health, environmental, and climate bene fi ts of renewables. per megawatt-hour, wind energy in ohio offers fi ve times more social bene fi ts than wind energy in new mexico, yet the two receive the same subsidy under the production tax credit. in addition, production-based subsidies encourage private developers to seek sites offering high energy output, although, as this analysis has shown, energy output is poorly aligned with health and environmental bene fi ts. materials and methods
positive relationship between the distance people live?
there exists a significant positive relationship between the distance people live from the river meghna as an indicator of (collective) risk exposure and household income (table 7.1). floodplain residents living in villages that are situated further away from the river have higher income levels
significant negative relationship ?
interestingly, a significant negative relationship is found between distance and income distribution (as measured through gini coefficients at village level). villages situated further away from the river have more equal income distributions (the lower the gini coefficient, the more equal the income distribution
Correlation between distance to river ?
correlation between distance to river as an indicator of risk exposure, household income and income distribution correlation between distance to river as an indicator of risk exposure, household income and income distribution
as expected, there exists a significant positive relationship between the distance people live from the river meghna as an indicator of (collective) risk exposure and household income (table 7.1). floodplain residents living in villages that are situated further away from the river have higher income levels. interestingly, a significant negative relationship is found between distance and income distribution (as measured through gini coefficients at village level). villages situated further away from the river have more equal income distributions (the lower the gini coefficient, the more equal the income distribution). table 7.1 correlation between distance to river as an indicator of risk exposure, household income and income distribution correlation between distance to river as an indicator of risk exposure, household income and income distribution.
What indicates that global mean temperature is projected to increase by 1.4 to 5.8degC over the period 1990 to 2100?
ipcc tar indicates that global mean temperature is projected to increase by 1.4 to 5.8degc over the period 1990 to 2100
What come to select specific metrics of the benefits of climate policies?
debates about the application of the precautionary principle come to select specific metrics of the benefits of climate policies
What is actually much more than a mere technical option?
the choice of a metrics for benefits of mitigation policies is actually much more than a mere technical option
ipcc tar indicates that global mean temperature is projected to increase by 1.4 to 5.8degc over the period 1990 to 2100 as a consequence of greenhouse gases anthropogenic emissions. faced with such a large uncertainty range, debates about the application of the precautionary principle come to select specific metrics of the benefits of climate policies. the selection of such metrics is certainly motivated by value judgments, but it is not independent from the degree of distrust regarding the possibility of timely providing reliable and non controversial estimates. attitudes can be grouped into three broad categories: a) a first one considers that the uncertainty about climate impacts and damages is so high that they cannot be confidently assigned any numerical value; environmental benefits are thus set in the form of arbitrary ceilings on either greenhouse gases (ghgs) concentration, temperature, or any other multidimensional indicator. approaches such as a safe corridor, a safe landing or a viability path also belong to this cost-efficiency framework; their outcome depends obviously on whether the constraints are set by a convinced ecologist or by a skeptical ecologist a la lomborg). sharing the same distrust about predictions of climate impacts, the convinced and the skeptical ecologist may search for a reasoned compromise and agree on a sequential decision-making process in which an initial trajectory can be adapted in the light of new information. this common will to consider several conceivable 2 2 futures and to keep open alternative options leads to substitute a stochastic to a deterministic cost-efficiency model. b) another attitude refuses the arbitrary setting of absolute targets and demands a costb) another attitude refuses the arbitrary setting of absolute targets and demands a costbenefit analysis; however, being skeptic about explicit prediction and assessment of damages, it does not use an itemized assessment of these damages but a willingness to pay for avoiding various levels of climate change. in modeling terms, this is translated through the inclusion of climate change indicators (temperature or rainfall patterns, extreme events) in the utility function to express a pure preference for current climate regime (pccr) this pccr conveys precautionary ethics leading to favoring the current climate regime over unknown alternatives; it incorporates psychological motivations about endangered habitats, the amenity or bequest value of landscapes, all values considered a part of climate policy benefits in the absence of definition of climate feedbacks on economic productivity. depending on the specification of the utility function, the environment appears (or does not appear) as a superior good (a good to which agents dedicate a growing share of their income). c) the last attitude leads also to the carrying out of a cost-benefit analysis but requires c) the last attitude leads also to the carrying out of a cost-benefit analysis but requires an itemized monetary assessment of impacts. this assessment confronts uncertainty of impact predictions and raises controversies1 about monetary valuation such as placing a monetary value on human life in different countries or aggregating regional estimates assuming a compensation hypothesis. many perform such an assessment though, for lack of anything better, to place some rationale into policy debates about long term targets, be it to convince public opinion to accept subsequent unpopular measures or to resist disproportionate demands from environmentalists. hence, the choice of a metrics for benefits of mitigation policies is actually much more than a mere technical option. it reflects a judgement on the quality of the available information and on its ability to serve as a common basis in the negotiation process. in other words, it implies a trade-off between accuracy and relevance accuracy because the further down we move along the causal chain linking ghgs emissions to climate change damages, the less confidence we place in our ability to predict the outcome of the cascade of uncertainties we are faced with; relevance because the further up we proceed from damages functions to ghgs concentrations ceilings, the further we get from a precise description of climate change consequences, in particular with regard to welfare and distributive aspects.
How many cases altered the central conclusions?
none of these cases
How were the plausible effects of technological improvement analyzed?
by reducing the emission per unit energy generation over time
What was the focus?
40 yr, linear transitions of a 1 twe energy system
although we focus here on 40 yr, linear transitions of a 1 twe energy system, we examined a far broader range of cases; none of these cases altered our central conclusions. figure 4 for example, illustrates the hge warming caused by transitions to several lge energy technologies that range in duration from 1 to 100 yr. we have simulated transitions ranging from 0.1 to 10 twe. in addition to the linear transition presented here, we examined exponential and logistic transitions (som texts sd1-sd3 and figures s8, s11-s14 available at stacks.iop.org/erl/7/014019/mmedia ). we also analyzed plausible effects of technological improvement by reducing the emission per unit energy generation over time by
Highlight the potential impacts of climate change on human health and extreme weather events.?
this research found that the american public does not currently associate global warming with any impacts on human health. communicators need to articulate and emphasize these impacts, which are among the most serious consequences of projected climate change
what is PSR stands for?
physicians for social responsibility (psr) is an example of an organization doing this kind of educational outreach
what are the extrem events held by global warming ?
this research found that few americans associate global warming with extreme events, such as heat waves, hurricanes, flooding or drought, despite the fact that all are projected to increase in severity due to climate change. extreme events are vivid, dramatic, and easily
strategy 3: highlight the potential impacts of climate change on human health and extreme weather events. this research found that the american public does not currently associate global warming with any impacts on human health. communicators need to articulate and emphasize these impacts, which are among the most serious consequences of projected climate change. an emphasis on the projected impacts on human health is also likely to elevate public concerns about global warming, especially compared to the associations currently dominant (melting ice, generalized heat, and impacts on non-human nature). some of these health implications are relatively well understood (e.g., increased likelihood of heatstroke), while others remain more uncertain (impacts on asthma) (national assessment synthesis team, 2001). physicians for social responsibility (psr) is an example of an organization doing this kind of educational outreach. psr has produced a series of state-by-state reports on the projected impacts of climate change on human health and conducted a public education campaign, including a lecture series by concerned physicians (psr, 2004). likewise, this research found that few americans associate global warming with extreme events, such as heat waves, hurricanes, flooding or drought, despite the fact that all are projected to increase in severity due to climate change. extreme events are vivid, dramatic, and easily 14 14
How to maintain a clear focus on principles of burden distribution?
focus in the first three sections on the responsibilities of countries as opposed to their individual inhabitants
What are the measurement that converts atmospheric concentrations?
co2 e is a useful unit of measurement that converts atmospheric concentrations of the six most important greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, perfluoromethane, hydroflurocarbon 23 and sulphur hexafluoride) into
notes 1. in order to maintain a clear focus on principles of burden distribution, rather than the agents identified as burden bearers, i focus in the first three sections on the responsibilities of countries as opposed to their individual inhabitants. this simplifying assumption reflects the primacy of countries in a range of international environmental agreements as well as much of the climate justice literature. as the analysis of alternative principles deepens in subsequent sections, i relax this assumption to evaluate both individualist and collectivist approaches. 2. co2 e is a useful unit of measurement that converts atmospheric concentrations of the six most important greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, perfluoromethane, hydroflurocarbon 23 and sulphur hexafluoride) into
What are a key ecosystem process in many biomes around the world?
wildfires
Why many plant species have acquired traits to cope with wildfires?
because fire is a recurring disturbance
When fire regime changes are observed in association with changes in climate, what we can observe?
a causal relationship is often assumed. certainly there is an evidence of rapid fire regime changes associated with shifts in climate, and this process is expected
wildfires are a key ecosystem process in many biomes around the world. they have played a determining role in the distribution and composition of many ecosystems (bond and others 2005 bond and keeley 2005 pausas and ribeiro 2013 and in global biogeochemical cycles (bowman and others 2009 ). because fire is a recurring disturbance, many plant species have acquired traits to cope with them, and thus fire has acted as an evolutionary pressure shaping plant traits (pausas and keeley 2009 keeley and others 2011 ). although we have made major strides over the last few decades in understanding fire regimes (box 1 ), their role in global change is still poorly understood. climatic changes may result in fire regime changes (for example, westerling and others 2006 marlon and others 2009 daniau and others 2013 ), but the relationship between climate and fires is not straightforward, due to interactions with factors such as vegetation structure and productivity (pausas and bradstock 2007 westerling and others 2011 pausas and paula 2012 pausas and ribeiro 2013 ). when fire regime changes are observed in association with changes in climate, a causal relationship is often assumed. certainly there is an evidence of rapid fire regime changes associated with shifts in climate, and this process is expected
Why cant IMPACT estimate the poverty effects of agricultural productivity declines from climate change?
because it is a partial equilibrium model
What does Hertel, Burke, and Lobell (2010) estimate?
the effects of climate change on poverty
What did they find?
poverty impacts to 2030 "depend as much on where impoverished households earn their income as on the agricultural impacts themselves, with poverty rates in some non-agricultural household groups rising by 20-50% in parts of africa and asia under these price changes, and falling by equal amounts for agriculture-specialized households elsewhere in asia and latin america
because it is a partial equilibrium model, impact has no feedback mechanisms between climate change effects on productivity and income. this means that it cannot estimate directly the poverty effects of agricultural productivity declines from climate change. however, the reduced form function that relates child malnutrition to calorie availability and other determinants implicitly includes the effects of real income change on child malnutrition. hertel, burke, and lobell (2010) use a general equilibrium model to estimate explicitly the effects of climate change on poverty. they find that the poverty impacts to 2030 "depend as much on where impoverished households earn their income as on the agricultural impacts themselves, with poverty rates in some non-agricultural household groups rising by 20-50% in parts of africa and asia under these price changes, and falling by equal amounts for agriculture-specialized households elsewhere in asia and latin america."
What does future global temperature change mainly depend on?
future global temperature change should depend mainly on atmospheric co2, at least if fossil fuel emissions remain high
Is the current solar cycle stronger or weaker than the Dalton Minimum of the late 18th century?
the current solar cycle is almost as weak as the dalton minimum of the late 18th century
For this simulation, what year did we fix the solar irradiance level at?
we keep solar irradiance fixed at the reduced level of 2010
future global temperature change should depend mainly on atmospheric co2, at least if fossil fuel emissions remain high. thus to provide the clearest picture of the co2 effect, we approximate the net future change of human-made non-co2 forcings as zero and we exclude future changes of natural climate forcings, such as solar irradiance and volcanic aerosols. here we discuss possible effects of these approximations. uncertainties in non-co2 forcings concern principally solar, aerosol and other ghg forcings. judging from the sunspot numbers (fig. 7b and [191]) for the past four centuries, the current solar cycle is almost as weak as the dalton minimum of the late 18th century. conceivably irradiance could decline further to the level of the maunder minimum of the late 17th century [192- 193]. for our simulation we choose an intermediate path between recovery to the level before the current solar cycle and decline to a still lower level. specifically, we keep solar irradiance fixed at the reduced level of 2010, which is probably not too far off in either direction. irradiance in 2010 is about 0.1 w/m2less than the mean of the prior three solar cycles, a decrease of forcing that
What did the global co-operation involve?
global co-operation was defined as a situation where, in addition to the european union countries and australia, at least three major ghg emitting countries i.e. us, china and india, would implement a similar emission reduction scheme by underpinning a national legislation
How many questions were the respondents asked to answer?
at this stage, respondents were asked a series of three set of questions
What was included?
a numerical probability scale was included to elicit respondents' perceptions of the effectiveness of the cprs
a numerical probability scale was included to elicit respondents' perceptions of the effectiveness of the cprs followed by a set of three questions related to best, high and low guess probability of policy success. a verbal probability classification, consistent with the ipcc likelihood scale, was attached to the numerical scale. at this stage, respondents were asked a series of three set of questions. first, two questions were asked to distinguish policy uncertainty arising from lack of scientific knowledge and from lack of global co-operation. global co-operation was defined as a situation where, in addition to the european union countries and australia, at least three major ghg emitting countries i.e. us, china and india, would implement a similar emission reduction scheme by underpinning a national legislation. second, respondents were asked to state their perceptions of likelihood of the world reaching a global co-operation.
What are the ways we respond to climate change?
responding to climate change requires a two-pronged approach that involves reducing greenhouse gas emissions, referred to as climate change mitigation, and adjusting activities and practices to reduce our vulnerability to potential impacts, referred to as adaptation
What does figure 8 indicate?
the nature of the earth's climate systems means that temperatures would continue to rise, even after stabilization of co2 and other greenhouse gases is achieved (figure 8
What does adaptation refer to?
adaptation refers to activities that minimize the negative impacts of climate change, and/or position us to take advantage of new opportunities that may be presented
responding to climate change requires a two-pronged approach that involves reducing greenhouse gas emissions, referred to as climate change mitigation, and adjusting activities and practices to reduce our vulnerability to potential impacts, referred to as adaptation. mitigation is necessary to decrease both the rate and the magnitude of global climate change. mitigation will not, however, prevent climate change from occurring. the nature of the earth's climate systems means that temperatures would continue to rise, even after stabilization of co2 and other greenhouse gases is achieved (figure 8). adaptation is therefore necessary to complement mitigation strategies. the united nations framework convention on climate change (unfccc) and the kyoto protocol each include requirements for parties to consider climate change adaptation. the kyoto protocol, for example, states that parties must "facilitate adequate adaptation to climate change" (article 10b, reference 13). adaptation refers to activities that minimize the negative impacts of climate change, and/or position us to take advantage of new opportunities that may be presented. adaptation is not a new concept: humans have always adapted to change, and will continue to do so in the future. canadians, for instance, have developed a range of strategies that have allowed us to deal effectively with our extremely variable climate. consider our climatecontrolled houses and offices, our warning systems for thunderstorms and tornadoes, and even our wide variety of seasonal clothing. there are two main concerns with respect to our ability to adapt to future climate change. first, the rate of change projected by climate models is unprecedented in human history. as the rate of change increases, our ability to adapt efficiently declines. second, as previously stated, the frequency and intensity of extreme events are projected to increase. in the past decade, losses from the 1998 ice storm, flooding in manitoba and quebec, drought and forest fires in western canada, storm surges in atlantic canada, and numerous other events clearly demonstrate our vulnerability to climate extremes.
How many floods has Gujarat had since 2004?
gujarat has faced three floods since 2004 as a result of extreme weather events
What devastating effect did the Mumbai flood cause?
bulk of city services and all transportation networks to be shut down for almost five days
How many died from the super-cyclone in Orissa in 1999?
in 1999, orissa was hit by a super-cyclone that killed more than 10,000 people
gujarat has faced three floods since 2004 as a result of extreme weather events, resulting in great economic losses in its cities.(17) for example, the devastating mumbai floods of 2005 caused the bulk of city services and all transportation networks to be shut down for almost five days. more than 1,000 people lost their lives and economic life in the city came to a halt. the catastrophic results of the event were due not only to a natural disaster of extreme intensity but also to a combination of institutional failures, poor preparedness and extremely high vulnerability of the poor.(18) the vulnerability of indian cities can be defined in terms of the expected and evident exposure to risks. for example, expected increases in the incidence of drought as a result of climate change leads to increased seasonal migration from rural to urban areas. these migrants, in turn, form the most marginalized and highly vulnerable groups in cities, with limited skills, education, capital and limited social and economic mobility. cyclones and storm surges could have a devastating impact on large coastal urban centres, including the mega cities of mumbai and chennai, the million-plus cities of vishakhapatnam, surat, bharuch, bhavnagar and jamnagar, besides affecting important ports such as kandla. in 1999, orissa was hit by a super-cyclone that killed more than 10,000 people and devastated buildings, essential services and infrastructure and economic
What liquid is found in the ocean?
water
A regions weather and temperature are called its?
climate
What do you call an individual feature or particular?
detail
the performance of the housing and water companies was found to be stronglyrelated to climatic conditions. companies in both sectors build and manage large infrastructures that are exposed to weather and climate. their ability to deliver their respective products and services is affected by a variety of climatic variables, in particular precipitation and temperature. sensitivities to climate change impacts are apparent in respect of a range of organisational functions. for a water services company in the uk the primary operational functions are the provision of reliable supplies of safe water, effluent treatment, maintenance of the sewage network and maintenance of bathing water quality. the sensitivity of most water companies to climate change is defined by the availability of 'headroom', i.e. the averaged margin between the supply and demand of water. but sensitivities affect many of the more specific functions of water companies as well (see table iii). for example, under the high-level 'effluent treatment' function, one key performance objective is to meet regulatory discharge consent standards. in relation to this objective alone, we were able to identify four areas of climate sensitivity: higher temperature affecting treatment processes; altered stream-flow affecting discharges; higher demands for water affecting throughput; and potential flooding of sewage treatment plants. this illustrates the extent to which organisational climate sensitivity is multifaceted and determined by the interplay between particular factors and conditions. as these are frequently organisation-, locationand time-specific, detail matters enormously in assessing the climate-sensitivity of a company, or of any other organisation. in our small set of cases, large differences existed between companies in the perceived threat to headroom and the capacity to meet future discharge consent standards under forecast climatic conditions. in addition, those functions and performance objectives that are climate sensitive are themselves subject to other pressures for change. for instance, higher than average population growth in the south-east of england is predicted to place greater stress on available water resources, absent climatic changes. in other words, the sensitivity of companies is a composite of climate and non-climate factors that may be specific in their impacts on the organisation.
What is the cause of most of the heavy rainfall events?
as expected for italy, large percentages of the total precipitation have been attributed to heavy precipitation events and positive trends appear in the trend maps (fig. 6d). the western coast of the central balkans resembles the italian pattern but with weaker and less significant trends
What is Greek hinterland ?
the greek hinterland shows mainly negative trends in contrast to some greek islands, coastal turkish and cypriot stations
Define Rainfall Event?
a large percentage of the annual total precipitation due to extreme events has obviously been caused by a large number of extreme precipitation events (r90n
as expected for italy, large percentages of the total precipitation have been attributed to heavy precipitation events and positive trends appear in the trend maps (fig. 6d). the western coast of the central balkans resembles the italian pattern but with weaker and less significant trends. the greek hinterland shows mainly negative trends in contrast to some greek islands, coastal turkish and cypriot stations. 5.8 number of events with precipitation amount greater than the 90th percentile of daily precipitation amount, r90n this index complements the findings of the previous indicator (r90t). a large percentage of the annual total precipitation due to extreme events has obviously been caused by a large number of extreme precipitation events (r90n). also in this pattern, large significant positive trends dominate the italian peninsula, whereas the easternmost part of the mediterranean shows negative but mainly insignificant decreases in the number of extreme precipitation events (not shown). 6. investigation of trends in time series of anomalies of climate extremes indices an attempt, here, has been made to define whether significant trends appear in the time series of regional standardised anomalies for particular climate extreme indices. the overall anomalies, over the eastern mediterranean, were calculated according to the method recommended by frich et al (2002). three temperature and four precipitation related climate extreme indices were selected as the most significant trends. to create regional-average anomaly time series, we standardised individual station series using the climatological average and standard
Focusing on the extent of the mountain study site, lowland species were projected to retain what?
suitable climate space by both macro and downscaled models
However, montane species also tended what?
to retain some suitable climate space
Thalictrum alpinum projected unsuitability of the southern what grid?
50 km grid cell
focusing on the extent of the mountain study site, lowland species were projected to retain suitable climate space by both macro and downscaled models, reflecting the overall national pattern (table 2). however, montane species also tended to retain some suitable climate space. under the high warming scenario, the macro model for a single montane species, festuca vivipara projected loss of suitable climate space from both the northern and southern 50 km grid cells overlapping the study site (table 2, fig. 3a). also under a high warming scenario, the macro model for another montane species, thalictrum alpinum projected unsuitability of the southern 50 km grid cell, but the higher altitude cell to the north remained suitable. the local models projected that the area of suitable climate space for lowland species would increase and
What has been shown by numerous recent studies examining the relationships between climate change and health?
in recent years, numerous studies examining the relationships between climate change and health have shown that the effects of climate change will not be uniform, that they will interact with other stresses on health and the health sector, and that they may not be clearly localized
What work has begun to address the issues shown by the studies?
work has begun on developing mechanisms and frameworks to address these issues
What knowledge remains to be filled in?
there remain many research needs and knowledge gaps concerning both the potential impacts and our capacity to adapt
there is growing awareness that climate change will place additional stress on the canadian health sector. in recent years, numerous studies examining the relationships between climate change and health have shown that the effects of climate change will not be uniform, that they will interact with other stresses on health and the health sector, and that they may not be clearly localized. although work has begun on developing mechanisms and frameworks to address these issues, there remain many research needs and knowledge gaps concerning both the potential impacts and our capacity to adapt. some research needs, as identified in the studies referenced in this chapter, include the following:
What were vertical 1-D simulations run with?
gator-gcmom
What did time-dependent processes treated in the 1-D version of the model include?
aerosol particle microphysics and chemistry, cloud hydrometeor particle microphysics and chemistry, gas chemistry, radiative transfer through aerosol particles, clouds, gases, and subsoil processes
vertical 1-d simulations were run with gator-gcmom, collapsed from 3-d (references in section 3) to 1-d, to examine the effects of cae i and ii on the burn-off of individual clouds and the feedback of such burn-off to ground surface temperature. one purpose of these simulations was to fi nd example conditions leading to cloud burn-off. another was to determine whether surface temperature changes are proportional to direct radiative forcing changes in clouds containing absorbing aerosol particles. time-dependent processes treated in the 1-d version of the model included aerosol particle microphysics and chemistry, cloud hydrometeor particle microphysics and chemistry, gas chemistry, radiative transfer through aerosol particles, clouds, gases, and subsoil processes. the model treated 89 layers between the surface and 60 km. each layer in the vertical column was initialized with gases, meteorological parameters, and a 60 bin discrete sizeand composition-resolved aerosol distribution. only the uim aerosol distribution was treated along with the three hydrometeor distributions in table 4, so all aerosol components were initially in the uim distribution. aerosol processes treated included homogeneous nucleation, condensation, dissolution, internalparticle chemical equilibrium, aerosol hydration of liquid water as a function of rh (up to 100%), temperature, composition, ion crystallization within aerosol particles, aerosol-aerosol coagulation, aerosol-hydrometeor coagulation, sedimentation, and dry deposition jacobson 2002b, 2003; jacobson et al ., 2007].
Has the Gilgel Abbay catchment theory been proven scientifically?
the general objective of this study is to assess the impact of climate change on the hydrology of the gilgel abbay catchment
How do you know after doing the Gilgel Abbay catchmen theory that this is gonna have a positive affect on humanity and Earth itself?
what are general trends of maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation scenario in the future compared to the present condition and how this is reflected on the hydrology of the gilgel abbay river
What are some limitations that you may go over to come to a better conclusion and understanding?
what are the possibilities and limitations of a selected general circulation model and statistical downscaling model for the hydrological assessment at the catchment scale
the general objective of this study is to assess the impact of climate change on the hydrology of the gilgel abbay catchment. the specific objectives of this study are: * to develop a better understanding of hydrological impact of climate change on the gilgel abbay catchment; * to develop and evaluate climate scenario data for maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation based on a general circulation model and a statistical downscaling model for gilgel abbay catchment; * to develop incremental scenarios to assess the sensitivity of the catchment to climate; * to quantify possible effects of climate change on the hydrology of gilgel abbay catchment based on the downscaled climate scenario data using selected hydrological model. in order to meet the above objectives, the research questions for this study are: * what are the possibilities and limitations of a selected general circulation model and statistical downscaling model for the hydrological assessment at the catchment scale; * what are general trends of maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation scenario in the future compared to the present condition and how this is reflected on the hydrology of the gilgel abbay river.
In which table are the common names and scientific names of species and stocks given?
common names and scientific names of species and stocks are given in table 4
What is along the Y axis?
the estimated trophic level is along the y axis
What do the colors (blue and red) represent?
the estimated trophic level is along the y axis, the height of the boxes is scaled to the log of the standing biomass, the width of the bars represents biomass flux of prey to predators, and the colors represent the alternative energy pathways such that pelagic (primary production) energy pathways are shown in blue and the benthic (detrital loop) energy pathways are shaded in red. j.c. field et al. progress in oceanography 68 (2006) 238-270 253
fig. 2. the significant food web of the northern california current. key taxa for functional groups are provided in table 3 common names and scientific names of species and stocks are given in table 4 the estimated trophic level is along the y axis, the height of the boxes is scaled to the log of the standing biomass, the width of the bars represents biomass flux of prey to predators, and the colors represent the alternative energy pathways such that pelagic (primary production) energy pathways are shown in blue and the benthic (detrital loop) energy pathways are shaded in red. j.c. field et al. progress in oceanography 68 (2006) 238-270 253
What have high resolution simulations explored?
we have used high-resolution (15 km) simulations from the mm5 forced by the echam5 global model to explore several mesoscale processes that modify climate change at the local level
What does the ECHAM5 global model show in autumn?
during autumn, the echam5 global model shows an increase in the large-scale precipitation as well as changes in the prevailing circulation patterns
What would increased winter warming hasten the loss of?
increased winter warming would hasten the loss of snowpack that is essential for storing winter precipitation for summer consumption
we have used high-resolution (15 km) simulations from the mm5 forced by the echam5 global model to explore several mesoscale processes that modify climate change at the local level. in winter and spring, the snow-albedo effect acts at fine spatial scales to enhance local warming, with considerable amplification of warming along the margins of the present-day snowpack. in spring, an increased onshore pressure gradient strengthens the onshore flow, which increases coastal cloudiness, reduces the daytime warming trend, and reduces the diurnal temperature range. during autumn, the echam5 global model shows an increase in the large-scale precipitation as well as changes in the prevailing circulation patterns. the shift to more onshore flow increases the orographic precipitation along of the north-south ridges of the cascade range and parts of the rockies. these results give strong evidence that the local response of temperature and precipitation to climate change is influenced by finescale processes that are not captured by coarse-resolution global models. while this study is limited to a single scenario from a single global model, these fundamental results depend on physical mechanisms that appear to be robust. in particular, snow-albedo feedback enhances warming over regions in which snowpack is lost. we have confidence in the ability of the regional model used here to represent this effect, because it duplicated similar changes that are observed in the annual transition from january to april, when snow-albedo plays an important role in the seasonal cycle. because the global model does not represent the local topography well, it cannot properly simulate snow-albedo feedback, which leads to areas where the coarse-resolution global model either underestimates or overestimates the warming rate. warming in mountainous areas is critical to the impacts of climate change on the region because of the importance of the snowpack for regional water resources and ecology. many areas in the cascade range show much greater rates of winter and spring warming in the regional model compared to the global model. these areas contain watersheds that supply municipal water and hydroelectric power to urban areas of washington and oregon. increased winter warming would hasten the loss of snowpack that is essential for storing winter precipitation for summer consumption. on the other hand, reduced wintertime warming rates simulated by the regional model for the canadian rockies would suggest a lesser impact of climate change on the columbia river, which is a critical source of power and water throughout the western united states. however, because the regional model shows greater warming over much of the columbia river basin, in particular for the snake river, a major tributary, the net effects on columbia flows cannot be estimated from these results and further research using hydrologic simulations will be required. for spring, the regional simulations show increased onshore flow and cloud cover. these changes considerably reduce the daytime warming rate relative to the global model, reducing the diurnal range. the reduced warming rate and decrease in solar radiance could have important impacts on air quality and consumptive water use for irrigation (both agricultural and landscape).
What are the thermal tolerance windows of bivalves estimated to be consistent with?
the thermal tolerance windows of bivalves, as estimated by lethal thermal limits, are consistent with the climate variability hypothesis; revived by stevens (1989
What might future studies increase in order to quantify thermal limits at the global-scale?
to quantify thermal limits at a global-scale, future studies might increase the geographic range of study, and determine whether differently defined thermal limits, i.e. pejus temperatures, show a similar or stronger response to geographical location
What does the finding of narrower lethal thermal tolerance ranges in tropical species suggest?
finally, our finding of narrower lethal thermal tolerance ranges in tropical species places the suggestion that tropical areas act as source habitats for bivalve speciation and range expansion towards temperate and high-latitude zones (jablonski et al. 2006) in an interesting light
the thermal tolerance windows of bivalves, as estimated by lethal thermal limits, are consistent with the climate variability hypothesis; revived by stevens (1989). to quantify thermal limits at a global-scale, future studies might increase the geographic range of study, and determine whether differently defined thermal limits, i.e. pejus temperatures, show a similar or stronger response to geographical location (portner 2002, osovitz hofmann 2007). finally, our finding of narrower lethal thermal tolerance ranges in tropical species places the suggestion that tropical areas act as source habitats for bivalve speciation and range expansion towards temperate and high-latitude zones (jablonski et al. 2006) in an interesting light. on the basis of chapter 2 44 44
What does complete-mix reactor mean?
a reactor with incremental feeding behaves like a complete-mix reactor
Explain the types of benefit loss from the arrangement in series
in terms of efficiency, the incremental feeding loses the benefits from the arrangement in series
What type of calculation is done to determine the different volumes and flows.
if the cells have different volumes and flows, the calculation can be done individually in each cell through the individual mass balances
q  (8.31) where: n number of cells in series with incremental feeding (-) v1 volume of each cell (assuming equal volumes) (m3) q total influent flow in the system (m3/d) it can be seen that such an arrangement has the same efficiency of a single complete-mix cell with an equivalent total volume. in other words, a reactor with incremental feeding behaves like a complete-mix reactor. in terms of efficiency, the incremental feeding loses the benefits from the arrangement in series. obviously, other reasons of practical and operational order may justify the inclusion of this option, principally a greater operational flexibility. in the cases when the inlet end of a reactor or the first cell are overloaded, such flexibility can contribute to the control of this localised overload. if the cells have different volumes and flows, the calculation can be done individually in each cell through the individual mass balances. if convenient, the dispersed flow model can be adopted for each cell with the corresponding d value.
What has the UK seen in terms of climate change in the last 20 years?
the last 20 years have seen a revolution in the way uk society perceives, relates to and plans for future climate
Explain how climate change is perceived?
climate change is a highly visible and contentious issue in public policy and in international relations, which some claim has greater saliency and urgency than any other global issue king, 2004; blair, 2006 
What is science claiming for the first time?
for the first time science is claiming to be able to reveal the climate of future generations as a function of the actions of past, present and future generations
the last 20 years have seen a revolution in the way uk society perceives, relates to and plans for future climate. the origins of this revolution lie in the unfolding discovery (see weart, 2003 that global climate is changing as a result of human emissions of greenhouse gases. this revolution has been abetted by a number of high profile, high impact extremes of weather in recent years (e.g. 2003 european heatwave) and international climate policy agreements (e.g. kyoto protocol) and the revolution has been fuelled by the emerging capability of science to offer quantitative assessments of the evolution of future climate (e.g. ipcc, 2007 ). these assessments extend well beyond the conventional timescales of numerical weather prediction (a few days) or of seasonal forecasting (a few months): earth system models aim to simulate future climatic evolution over periods from several decades up to the next millennium or beyond (e.g. lenton et al., 2006 ). for the first time science is claiming to be able to reveal the climate of future generations as a function of the actions of past, present and future generations. climate change is a highly visible and contentious issue in public policy and in international relations, which some claim has greater saliency and urgency than any other global issue king, 2004; blair, 2006 ). securing a
What did this paper examine?
whether prediction of performance differed according to the source of climate perceptions: from managers alone or from other employees
What was the managers' perceptions predicted to be?
it was predicted that managers' perceptions would be more closely associated with company productivity than would non-managers
What does this not remove the need for?
it does not remove the need for broad surveys of all employees
the paper also examined whether prediction of performance differed according to the source of climate perceptions: from managers alone or from other employees. this is an important question, since many investigations (see the have been restricted to samples of managers, and their perceptions might be inconsistent with those of the wider work-force. it was predicted that managers' perceptions would be more closely associated with company productivity than would non-managers'. that prediction was not confirmed. results remained extremely similar when managers-only responses were compared with those of an entire sample (including the managers themselves). a linked finding was that mean climate perceptions by managers and non-managers were significantly intercorrelated, on average .68 across the 17 dimensions studied here. in companies where managers' views of climate features are higher or lower, so too are non-managers' views. it thus appears that studies based on climate information provided by managers alone are likely to obtain relative patterns very similar to those based on the perceptions of other employees, at least in manufacturing companies of the kind studied here. while this is encouraging in terms of generalizability from manager-only data, it does not remove the need for broad surveys of all employees. for example, information from a wide sample of employees is needed in settings of organizational change. baseline information gains in face validity and acceptability if it derives from a large number of employees, rather than from merely a sample of managers. in some cases, investigators wish
How is the impact of fishing on populations?
the foregoing has outlined concepts of how fisheries can alter the sensitivities of individuals, populations, fish communities, and entire marine ecosystems to climate forcing. we conclude that exploitation impacts the sensitivity of individual fish to climate forcing by removing individuals (often those with specific characteristics) and altering the genetic composition and variability within the population
What are the effects of the environmental impact caused by fishing?
the impacts of these alterations then affect the ability and range of options available to populations, communities, and ultimately ecosystems to respond to climate forcing. whereas the responses of fish populations and communities to climate and exploitation can largely be viewed as the sum of their parts, marine ecosystems have complex and emergent properties, for example related to spatial heterogeneity and food web processes, that complicate prediction of their responses to the interactions of these drivers of change
the foregoing has outlined concepts of how fisheries can alter the sensitivities of individuals, populations, fish communities, and entire marine ecosystems to climate forcing. we conclude that exploitation impacts the sensitivity of individual fish to climate forcing by removing individuals (often those with specific characteristics) and altering the genetic composition and variability within the population. the impacts of these alterations then affect the ability and range of options available to populations, communities, and ultimately ecosystems to respond to climate forcing. whereas the responses of fish populations and communities to climate and exploitation can largely be viewed as the sum of their parts, marine ecosystems have complex and emergent properties, for example related to spatial heterogeneity and food web processes, that complicate prediction of their responses to the interactions of these drivers of change (e.g. frank et al., 2006). 19 19 accepted version 2007 sept. journal of marine systems - globec special issue climate forcing can be separated into two main components: climate variability climate forcing can be separated into two main components: climate variability (here including extreme events), and climate trends or change (section 1). we conclude that exploitation increases the sensitivity of marine systems to climate variability, since this is what is experienced at space and time scales relevant to individual ambits and lifespans. climate change occurs sufficiently slowly relative to the life spans of most marine species that it is unlikely to have an immediate (i.e. at any specific time) impact on marine systems - unless a critical threshold for one or more species is exceeded (e.g. durant et al., 2007). decadal time scales may also be required for evolutionary changes from fishing to become apparent (law, 2007). rather, the effects of climate change are experienced as an accumulation of the effects of climate variability, including rapid changes such as regime shifts (which we consider an example of extreme events). therefore, improved understanding of the processes by which human exploitation alters the sensitivity of marine systems to climate variability will also help us to understand the sensitivity of marine systems to climate change. management needs to develop approaches which maintain the resilience of individuals, populations, communities of fish, and marine ecosystems, to these combined and interacting effects of climate and fishing.
What is the scene for intense human pressure on the forest through logging, deforestation, and expansion of fire use?
amazonia, and in particular its drier margins, is the scene for intense human pressure on the forest through logging, deforestation, and expansion of fire use
What gives only a partial picture of the future of Amazonia?
consideration of the ecophysiological and ecological responses of the natural system to climate change gives only a partial picture of the future of amazonia
How may deforestation directly affect local climate?
deforestation may directly affect local climate by reducing local recycling of soil water through deep roots into forest transpiration and consequently into precipitation
amazonia, and in particular its drier margins, is the scene for intense human pressure on the forest through logging, deforestation, and expansion of fire use. in this context, consideration of the ecophysiological and ecological responses of the natural system to climate change gives only a partial picture of the future of amazonia, and it is important to consider the impacts of this direct pressure and its interactions with atmospheric change. under business-as-usual scenarios of deforestation, it is likely that significant areas of e. amazonia would be directly deforested, although there remains the possibility of greatly improved governance and maintenance of forest area (2, 27). nevertheless, it is likely that agricultural frontiers will spread further into the region, providing the threads of a web of ignition points ready to ignite amazonian forests in the event of a shift to a drier and/or more seasonal climate (28). pressures come from the spread of road infrastructure through the region, coupled with increased regional and global demand for amazonian beef and soya, and the emerging global demand for biofuels (28, 29) this pressure will influence the response of forests in a number of ways by i directly removing forest cover and being an independent agent of amazon dieback; ii directly modifying local climate, surface temperatures, and rainfall regime, thus, contributing to regional climate change; and (iii) increasing the presence of, and vulnerability to, fire. deforestation may directly affect local climate by reducing local recycling of soil water through deep roots into forest transpiration and consequently into precipitation, although this seems to depend on the scale and location of deforestation. deforestation in e. amazonia may reduce rainfall downwind in w. amazonia (30), a region that otherwise seems less vulnerable to change in rainfall regime. in addition, lost forest transpiration results in decreased surface cooling and thereby an increase regional air temperatures, evaporative demand, and water stress in remaining forests. landuse change and fire also affect the rainfall regime by greatly increasing the aerosol content of the atmosphere through smoke and dust. high aerosol content favors less frequent but more intensive convective rain and possible suppression of rain in the dry season. a retreat of amazonian forest (whether caused by deforestation or severe drying) would therefore further exacerbate regional climate change by altering local water recycling and other biophysical properties (10).
The observed increases in stratospheric water vapor may have contributed to what?
it is now apparent that observed increases in stratospheric water vapor may have contributed significantly to both stratospheric cooling and tropospheric warming over the last few decades
However, a recent study suggested that our initial estimate of the climate impact may have overestimated what?
however, a recent study has suggested that our initial estimate of the climate impact may have overestimated both the radiative forcing and stratospheric cooling from these changes
We show that the differences between the various estimates are not due to which problems?
we show that differences between the various estimates are not due to inherent problems with broadband and narrow-band radiation schemes but rather due to the different experimental setups, particularly the altitude of the water vapor change relative to the tropopause used in the radiative calculations
it is now apparent that observed increases in stratospheric water vapor may have contributed significantly to both stratospheric cooling and tropospheric warming over the last few decades. however, a recent study has suggested that our initial estimate of the climate impact may have overestimated both the radiative forcing and stratospheric cooling from these changes. we show that differences between the various estimates are not due to inherent problems with broadband and narrow-band radiation schemes but rather due to the different experimental setups, particularly the altitude of the water vapor change relative to the tropopause used in the radiative calculations. furthermore, we show that if recent estimates for the observed water vapor trends are valid globally they could have contributed a radiative forcing of up to 0.29 wm 2and a lower-stratospheric cooling of more than 0.8 k over the past 20 years, with these values more than doubling if, as has been suggested, the trend has persisted for the last 40 years. this 40 year radiative forcing is roughly 75% of that due to carbon dioxide alone but, despite its high value, we find that the addition of this forcing into a simple model of climate change still gives global mean surface temperature trends which are consistent with observations. index terms: 1610 global change (new category): atmosphere (0315, 0325); 1836 hydrology: hydrologic budget (1655); 3362 meteorology and atmospheric dynamics: stratosphere/troposphere interactions; 3359 meteorology and atmospheric dynamics: radiative processes
Who explained the confusion that about the new international terrorism of this century and links it to a pessimism about the accomplishments of modernity and science and fear of their legacy
furedi explains the confusion that has emerged in western culture about the new international terrorism of this century and links it to a pessimism about the accomplishments of modernity and science and fear of their legacy
Why did claims of intelligence experts and of climate modellers have such pessimism toward vision and promise?
are invited to fill the voids in the human imagination thus created
Is Furedi's postiton a contested one?
whilst furedi's is a contested position
furedi explains the confusion that has emerged in western culture about the new international terrorism of this century and links it to a pessimism about the accomplishments of modernity and science and fear of their legacy. such pessimism evacuates the future of belief, vision and promise. the knowledge claims of intelligence experts - or, in the case studied here, of climate modellers - are invited to fill the voids in the human imagination thus created. whilst furedi's is a contested position - for many the promises of new technologies remain as alluring as ever sociologist ulrich beck describes a similar phenomenon when he talks about the non-existent and fictitious future replacing the legacies of the past as the basis for present-day action: "expected risks are the whip to keep the present in line. the more
Who has done laboratory work?
charles winder, edith martinez, and karen lundy
From who did VLS received  funding?
from ucla division of life sciences, ucla senate faculty research programme, nsf deb-0089445, nsf deb-0516529, and the national geographic society
Who did discussions of data analysis?
rodney dyer and doug scofield
we thank the anonymous reviewers who provide valuable suggestions on how to improve the manuscript. we are grateful to: rodney dyer and doug scofield for discussions of data analysis; keith gaddis, karen lundy, stephanie steele, and pam thompson for comments on manuscript; charles winder, edith martinez, and karen lundy for laboratory work; and uma dandekar and other staff at the ucla sequencing and genotyping core facility. we thank all those people who were drafted into collecting oak leaves, including brian alfaro, maria valbuena-caraban~a, kurt merg, andrea pluess, andrea sork, danielle sork, silke werth, and charles winder. over the years of data collection and analysis, vls received funding from ucla division of life sciences, ucla senate faculty research programme, nsf deb-0089445, nsf deb-0516529, and the national geographic society. fwd and mi were supported by california energy commission research project cec 500-08-020. hw was supported by the china national scientific and technical foundation project (grant no. 2006fy210100).
Where the requirements and opportunities in RCM evaluation and development, as well as application, have been outlined?
the requirements and opportunities in rcm evaluation and development, as well as application, have been outlined earlier in ref 6,55
What  regional models are also used for?
as mentioned, regional models are also used for short-range weather forecasting
What make use of RCM results provides?
in return, impact studies that make use of rcm results provide means of model evaluation, in an integrated sense
the requirements and opportunities in rcm evaluation and development, as well as application, have been outlined earlier in ref 6,55. among the applications, one finds seasonal forecasting, end-to-end model systems combining regional climate and impact modeling systems, use of rcms as test-benches for developing process parameterizations for global models, studies of the far past,56-59specific process studies such as the influence of snow cover on the atmosphere, and regional reanalyses. as mentioned, regional models are also used for short-range weather forecasting. in return, impact studies that make use of rcm results provide means of model evaluation, in an integrated sense. an example is river run-off that is affected by precipitation, snow, temperature (via evapotranspiration), and soil moisture. in the interdisciplinary setting, the context of rcms is, however, how they enable impact studies and otherwise provide useful information, not least on climate change.
Which countries are experiencing drought?
zimbabwe and other southern african countries have been of late experiencing frequent droughts alternating with periods of very high rainfall. in some cases, floods and mid-season prolonged dry spells have been experienced during the same season. this paper examines smallholder farmers' perspectives on climate change and variability and its impacts on their farming activities
What is the current adaptation of the transition and variation?
also, a better understanding of farmer perceptions regarding climate change and variability, current adaptation measures and their determinants will be important to inform policy for future successful adaptation of the agricultural sector (nhemachena and hassan, 2007). the study also helps to open up debates on the impacts and adaptation to a wider range of stakeholders, including smallholder and subsistence farmers themselves. this will not only improve knowledge of impacts, but aid in building adaptive capacity at all levels, including farmers themselves
zimbabwe and other southern african countries have been of late experiencing frequent droughts alternating with periods of very high rainfall. in some cases, floods and mid-season prolonged dry spells have been experienced during the same season. this paper examines smallholder farmers' perspectives on climate change and variability and its impacts on their farming activities. policy responses to climate change/variability have been mainly driven by debates among scientists, whilst the insights of poor people living on the frontline have been largely neglected (actionaid international, 2006). this study, therefore, tried to put the views of the vulnerable at the center of the climate change impact and adaptation analysis by assessing views and knowledge about climate change, its impacts, and adaptation strategies among smallholder farmers. this helps in the understanding of the complexities of specific real-world smallholder farming systems. also, a better understanding of farmer perceptions regarding climate change and variability, current adaptation measures and their determinants will be important to inform policy for future successful adaptation of the agricultural sector (nhemachena and hassan, 2007). the study also helps to open up debates on the impacts and adaptation to a wider range of stakeholders, including smallholder and subsistence farmers themselves. this will not only improve knowledge of impacts, but aid in building adaptive capacity at all levels, including farmers themselves.
What is the scale of the questions?
definitely against (1) to definitely in favor (10
Do answers have a probabilistic interpretation?
respondents' answers have a probabilistic interpretation
"if you could vote on each of these agreements in a referendum, how likely is it that you would vote in favor or against each of the agreements? please give your answer on the following scale from definitely against (1) to definitely in favor (10)." the rating task was posed as a probabilistic question. therefore, respondents' answers have a probabilistic interpretation as they indicate indicated how likely it is that they would vote in favor or against the agreement if it was put up for a direct vote. we exploit the probabilistic nature of the ratings by linearly rescaling them to map onto the set [0, 100]. more specifically, we use the following linear transformation:
What factor changed the distribution of the three fruit fly species?
it was demonstrated that competition markedly altered the distributions of all three fruit fly species in comparison with those found in single-species clines
What unexpected thing did the researchers find under simulated warming?
under simulated warming, unexpected effects on the distribution and abundance of fruit fly species were produced, including the reversal of the species' relative abundance at some temperatures
How did Hodkinson challenge the study's conclusions?
the conclusions of this study were challenged by hodkinson (1999), who provided evidence of cases where species' distributions were directly affected by climate
c it was demonstrated that competition markedly altered the distributions of all three fruit fly species in comparison with those found in single-species clines. under simulated warming, unexpected effects on the distribution and abundance of fruit fly species were produced, including the reversal of the species' relative abundance at some temperatures. the authors concluded that biotic interactions should be included in predictions of species' responses to climate change, without which predictions from bioclimate envelope models could be misleading. the conclusions of this study were challenged by hodkinson (1999), who provided evidence of cases where species' distributions were directly affected by climate. one potential criticism to the conclusions made by davis
What are usual detention times for domestic sewage?
3 to 6 days
Where is additional information on anaerobic ponds located?
chapter 14
What is the main design criteria based on?
volumetric organic load
the main design criteria are based on a volumetric organic load (kgbod/m3* d). for domestic sewage, this usually leads to detention times in the order of 3 to 6 days. even though the minimum cell residence time of the acetoclastic methanogenic archaea is around 3.3 days, for a temperature of 30*c, there has been a recent tendency of reducing the detention times in the anaerobic ponds to around 1 to 2 days. this can be achieved if the retention time of the biomass can be maintained above 3 days, to guarantee the maintenance of a stable bacterial population and an intimate biomass-sewage contact. these conditions can be accomplished through a better distribution of the influent through the bottom of the pond, at several points, aimed at simulating the feeding of uasb reactors (see section 26.3.3). in this manner, biomass development mechanisms with good settling and activity characteristics are favoured, increasing the solids retention in the system. additional information on anaerobic ponds, including design criteria and example, is presented in chapter 14.
To what has considerable effort been devoted?
considerable effort has been devoted to improving the stochastic rainfall model's ability to reproduce extreme rainfall amounts, but some limitations should be briefly discussed
What can be said of hourly extreme statistics?
hourly extreme statistics are subject to even more uncertainty, and return periods beyond 5 yr should be used with caution
What should be used with caution?
daily rainfall extreme statistics for return periods longer than, say, 10 yr should therefore be used with caution, and the user is advised to carry out uncertainty analysis using the 100 generated wg series provided
the difficulties of generating extreme weather series have already been noted. considerable effort has been devoted to improving the stochastic rainfall model's ability to reproduce extreme rainfall amounts, but some limitations should be briefly discussed. very long series may be generated (e.g. 10,000 yr), which may be used in principle to estimate long return period (or low annual exceedance probability, aep) extremes, for example the 100 yr (1% aep) rainfall event. however, whilst there may be sufficient data in this 10,000 yr sample to estimate this event, and the series is stationary, care must be taken in interpreting this quantity, since it is derived from an imperfect model, which has been fitted (and must be validated by the user) using a much shorter observed record (typically 30 yr of rainfall data, 1961-1990). daily rainfall extreme statistics for return periods longer than, say, 10 yr should therefore be used with caution, and the user is advised to carry out uncertainty analysis using the 100 generated wg series provided. more detailed advice is given in the annex and the ukcp09 user guidance and ukcp09 weather generator guidance. hourly extreme statistics are subject to even more uncertainty, and return periods beyond 5 yr should be used with caution. in all cases, the user should bear in
In Figure where color maps show water vapor , solid line shows what boundary?
solid line
Sample images of atmospheric rivers are true positive by our deep CNN model, true or false?
sample images of atmospheric rivers mis-classified (false negative) by our deep cnn model
Association of what type of weather is a portion of weather front?
a portion of weather front are associated with extra-tropical cyclones
fig. 3: sample images of atmospheric rivers correctly classified (true positive) by our deep cnn model. figure shows total column water vapor (color map) and land sea boundary (solid line). fig. 4: sample images of atmospheric rivers mis-classified (false negative) by our deep cnn model. figure shows total column water vapor (color map) and land sea boundary (solid line). images,a weather front is observable as a strip of clouds, but it is hardly visible on two dimensional fields such as temperature and pressure. in middle latitude (e.g. most u.s.), a portion of weather front are associated with extra-tropical cyclones. figure 5 shows examples of correctly classified weather front by our deep cnn system. visually, the narrow long regions of high precipitation line up approximately parallel to the temperature contour. this is a clear characteristics and comparatively easy for deep cnns to learn. because patterns of weather fronts is rather complex and hardly show up in two dimensional fields, we decided to further investigate it in later work. table 7: confusion matrix for weather front classification label wf label non_wf predict wf 0.876 0.18 predict non_wf 0.124 0.82
When do the interacion occurs?
when two explanatory variables have an effect upon a response variable that is greater (synergism) or lesser (antagonism) than the effects expected from the explanatory variables acting independently
When do interaction chain effects occur?
interaction chain effects occur when one driver (e.g., habitat loss) increases the magnitude of another driver (e.g., abundance of invasive species) and both drivers have a direct effect on the response variable. in contrast, interaction modification effects occur when the per capita effect of one driver (e.g., the negative effect of a single individual of an invasive species) changes depending on the level of another driver
Do the land use pattern across the world will affect climate?
land use patterns across the globe will affect climates by altering the balance of carbon in terrestrial and atmospheric pools.121,122in addition, land use can affect regional climate because different land cover types have different impacts on surface fluxes of radiation, heat, moisture and momentum
an interaction occurs when two explanatory variables have an effect upon a response variable that is greater (synergism) or lesser (antagonism) than the effects expected from the explanatory variables acting independently, i.e., effects are 'multiplicative,' rather than 'additive' (figure 1). didham et al.120in a review of interactions between habitat loss and invasive species, suggest that interaction effects can be 'chain effects' or 'modification effects' (figure 2; adapted from ref 120). interaction chain effects occur when one driver (e.g., habitat loss) increases the magnitude of another driver (e.g., abundance of invasive species) and both drivers have a direct effect on the response variable. in contrast, interaction modification effects occur when the per capita effect of one driver (e.g., the negative effect of a single individual of an invasive species) changes depending on the level of another driver. with regard to land use and climate change, direct interactions between these drivers are expected. land use patterns across the globe will affect climates by altering the balance of carbon in terrestrial and atmospheric pools.121,122in addition, land use can affect regional climate because different land cover types have different impacts on surface fluxes of radiation, heat, moisture and momentum.123
Are eggs laid at 33degC of inferior quality?
there was no evidence that the eggs laid at 33degc were of inferior quality; they had the same protein content and hatching rate as those laid at 26degc (rearing temperature
Do increases in egg laying due to temperature hikes jeopardize egg quality?
these results also suggest that increases in egg laying due to increased temperature do not come at the expense of egg quality
What does the increase in egg output at 33degC reflect?
therefore, the increase in egg output at 33degc appears to reflect increased reproductive effort
g. texensis females increased egg laying during the simulated heat wave (fig.  1). there was no evidence that the eggs laid at 33degc were of inferior quality; they had the same protein content and hatching rate as those laid at 26degc (rearing temperature). similarly, in a related cricket g. bimaculatus ), females also laid more eggs at elevated temperatures, and the mean mass of hatchlings increased at higher temperatures [34degc; see table  1 in behrens et al. (behrens et al., 1983)]. these results also suggest that increases in egg laying due to increased temperature do not come at the expense of egg quality. female crickets store mature eggs in their lateral oviducts, and initially the increase in egg laying could have occurred by laying stored eggs (shoemaker and adamo, 2007). however, to maintain increased egg laying for 6  days would require increased egg production (shoemaker and adamo, 2007). therefore, the increase in egg output at 33degc appears to reflect increased reproductive effort. there was also no evidence that the increase in reproduction
How does a filter press operate?
a filter press operates in an intermittent mode, with cycles consisting of sludge loading, filtration, and cake unloading stages
What surrounds the plates that the liquid sludge is pumped into?
the liquid sludge is pumped into plates surrounded by filter cloths
What does the pumping of the sludge increase?
the pumping of the sludge increases the pressure in the space between the plates and forces the sludge to pass through the filter cloth
a filter press operates in an intermittent mode, with cycles consisting of sludge loading, filtration, and cake unloading stages. the liquid sludge is pumped into plates surrounded by filter cloths. the pumping of the sludge increases the pressure in the space between the plates and forces the sludge to pass through the filter cloth. the solids are then retained on the filtering medium, forming the cake. next, a hydraulic piston pushes a steel plate against the other polyethylene plates, making up the pressing. the filtrate (liquid) goes through the filter cloths and is collected by the plate outlet ports. the cake is easily removed from the filter when the pneumatic piston is retreated and the plates are separated. at this moment, the dry cake falls from the plate and can be taken to storage or final destination. figure 5.9 presents a typical set up of a filter press. filter presses were developed for industrial uses and then underwent subsequent adaptations to be used for dewatering sludge. the equipment operates in overview of sludge treatment and disposal 269
Which is the region where the study of health infrastructure revealed several barriers to effective adaptation to climate variability and change?
a study of the health infrastructure in the toronto-niagara region revealed several barriers to effective adaptation to climate variability and change
What reasons led to several barriers to effective adaptation to climate variability and change?
these barriers stem from knowledge gaps, insufficient organization and coordination, and inadequate understanding and communication of climate change and health issues within the health community
Which organizations published its assessment of the implications of climate change for the health of Canadian children?
among these are the canadian public health association(86)and the canadian institute of child health, which published its assessment of the implications of climate change for the health of canadian children.(69
a study of the health infrastructure in the toronto-niagara region revealed several barriers to effective adaptation to climate variability and change.(24)these barriers stem from knowledge gaps, insufficient organization and coordination, and inadequate understanding and communication of climate change and health issues within the health community. if adaptation measures are to be successful, these barriers must be overcome see box 6). successful adaptation will also depend on canadians becoming more aware of, and actively engaged in, preparing for the potential health impacts of climate change. several nongovernmental organizations have begun to draw the attention of their members and the public to the causes and effects of climate change, and to the need for both mitigation and adaptation measures. among these are the canadian public health association(86)and the canadian institute of child health, which published its assessment of the implications of climate change for the health of canadian children.(69)
What has a minimal impact on the hydrologic cycle?
while solar radiation has a minimal impact under the proposed climate change simulation scenarios
What has the highest influence on the hydrologic cycle?
changing the precipitation has the highest influence on the hydrologic cycle
What has both a negative and positive impact on the hydrologic processes?
increasing temperature, however, has both a negative and positive impact on the hydrologic processes
temporal impact fig. 7 presents the cumulative differences in surface runoff, evapotranspiration, and recharge between all the scenarios and the base case scenario, averaged spatially over the entire watershed. as shown, changing the precipitation has the highest influence on the hydrologic cycle, while solar radiation has a minimal impact under the proposed climate change simulation scenarios. groundwater recharge is predicted to increase under all scenarios, while evapotranspiration increases in all cases, except when incoming solar radiation is reduced (scenario 6). fig. 7 also illustrates that, as expected, surface runoff increases with increasing precipitation. furthermore, increasing the precipitation rate will generally increase all three hydrologic parameters as there is more water available in the system. increasing temperature, however, has both a negative and positive impact on the hydrologic processes.
Are all the volatile suspended solids biodegradable?
not all the volatile suspended solids are biodegradable, and there is a biodegradable and a non-biodegradable fraction
What does volatile suspended solids represent?
these represent the organic fraction of the biomass - the organic matter can be volatised, that is, converted into gas by combustion (oxidation
What is another way to interpret volatile suspended solids?
besides considering the biomass activity, the solids can also be interpreted with relation to their biodegradability
due to the difficulty in characterising the biological solids and the substrate according to the above concepts, most of the mathematical models introduce simplifications in their representation. such simplified representations are described in the present section. the unit of mass of the microbial cells is normally expressed in terms of suspended solids (ss), since the biomass consists of solids that are suspended in the reactor (in the case of dispersed growth). however, not all the solids mass participates in the conversion of the organic substrate, as there is an inorganic fraction that does not play an active role in biological treatment. therefore, the biomass is frequently expressed in terms of volatile suspended solids (vss). these represent the organic fraction of the biomass - the organic matter can be volatised, that is, converted into gas by combustion (oxidation). however, as mentioned, not all the organic fraction of the biomass is really active (eckenfelder, 1980; marais and ekama, 1976; grady and lim, 1980; iawprc, 1987). thus, the volatile suspended solids can be divided into an active and an inactive fraction. the active fraction is that which has the real participation in the conversion of the substrate. the main limitation of the use of the active solids in the design and operational control of a treatment plant relates to the difficulty in their determination. there are indirect processes, based on dna, atp, proteins, and others, but none compares to the simplicity of the direct determination of volatile suspended solids. besides considering the biomass activity, the solids can also be interpreted with relation to their biodegradability. not all the volatile suspended solids are biodegradable, and there is a biodegradable and a non-biodegradable fraction. 372 basic principles of wastewater treatment in summary, the following distribution is frequently adopted for the suspended solids in a reactor:
In what year was the governmentâ€™s first climate change plan released?
in 1994, climate change policy was formalised with the publication of the government's first climate change programme
In what year was the election of the labor administration introduced?
while some new initiatives were introduced following the 1997 election of the labour administration
The governmentâ€™s agenda has faded into any year issue?
energy itself faded as an issue on the government's agenda (rcep, 2000).v
in 1994, climate change policy was formalised with the publication of the government's first climate change programme (department of the environment, 1994), which outlined policies designed to achieve a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by the year 2000. the policy measures forming the backbone of the programme were the imposition of value added tax (vat) on domestic fuel and the establishment of the energy saving trust (collier, 1997; o'riordan and rowbotham, 1996). ironically, the very 'dash for gas' that led the uk to provide international leadership on the issue of climate change provided little impetus for domestic action. with emissions of greenhouse gases falling relative to 1990 levels, there was limited appetite for engaging in additional policies and measures. while some new initiatives were introduced following the 1997 election of the labour administration, notably a higher rate fuel duty escalator (which was short-lived) and the climate change levy on large energy users, climate change remained marginal to the energy policy agenda. indeed, in the absence of new external drivers - often seen as crucial in the process of policy change (kingdon 2003, sabatier 1987) - energy itself faded as an issue on the government's agenda (rcep, 2000).v
What is the biggest problem facing the information about climate change?
abrupt climate change and that can be used to explore impacts, economics and adaptive behaviour; and inadequate attention has been paid to the nature of information about abrupt climate change, how this information is perceived by decision makers, and what level of authority such statements possess
Is a long standing period of cooling possible in Europe?
it is possible, for example, that over northwest europe a period of cooling + perhaps lasting five, ten or even more years, occurs in the next one or two decades
Why is an appropriate economic analysis important to understanding the impact of climate change?
in such a scenario, the costing of adaptive decisions and behaviour becomes a crucial factor. in particular an appropriate economic analysis of the value of forecast information would be needed, such as that developed in the context of weather and seasonal climate forecasts where the cost of acting on false positives or false negatives is critical (e.g. wilks 2001
abrupt climate change: can society cope? 2015 abrupt climate change and that can be used to explore impacts, economics and adaptive behaviour; and inadequate attention has been paid to the nature of information about abrupt climate change, how this information is perceived by decision makers, and what level of authority such statements possess. c natural variability? one final issue to be raised here concerns the possibility that a sign reversal in regional climate trends may occur in the quite near future for reasons that may or may not be related to human-induced abrupt climate change. it is possible, for example, that over northwest europe a period of cooling + perhaps lasting five, ten or even more years, occurs in the next one or two decades. this may well occur due to natural, decadal variability of the climate system (see figure 5; hall stouffer 2001), or indeed it is conceivable according to some commentators that it may occur due to early and more substantial weakening of the thc than is generally supposed. this raises a number of intriguing questions for the way in which society interacts with climate. firstly, through what methods would science be able to distinguish between these two possibilities, how quickly could it do so and with what authority would it speak? trust between society and government and between society and science might be further challenged (poortinga pidgeon 2003). the implications for climate policy in general, and adaptation strategies in particular, of the two different explanations would be quite profound. secondly, at what stage would adaptive decisions, investments and behaviour alter to take account of this new boundary condition (i.e. a climate reversal interpreted either as permanent or temporary)? one would imagine that different sectors with different constraints and priorities would react quite differently. thirdly, this scenario suggests that adaptation strategies or incentives should be explored that are robust to such a possibility. in other words, whether regional climate continues to move in the direction conventionally assumed in a relatively smooth fashion, or whether abrupt climate change in the sense of sign reversal is experienced, adaptation strategies might be established by governments, business, resource managers, etc., that are robust to either outcome. in such a scenario, the costing of adaptive decisions and behaviour becomes a crucial factor. in particular an appropriate economic analysis of the value of forecast information would be needed, such as that developed in the context of weather and seasonal climate forecasts where the cost of acting on false positives or false negatives is critical (e.g. wilks 2001).
What is the conclusions of results of our observational and modelling analysis ?
the results of our observational and modelling analysis lead to the following conclusions. first, we theorize that the arctic warming in the 1920s-1930s and the subsequent cooling until about 1970 are due to natural fluctuations internal to the climate system. secondly, we believe there are strong indications that neither the warming trend nor the decrease of ice extent and volume over the last two decades can be explained by natural processes alone. thirdly, the state-of-the-art echam4 and hadcm3 coupled climate models both predict a dramatic decrease of the ice cover, which could result in a nearly ice-free arctic ocean during summer at the end of this century
How has the Arctic changed over time?
we theorize that the arctic warming in the 1920s-1930s and the subsequent cooling until about 1970 are due to natural fluctuations internal to the climate system
the results of our observational and modelling analysis lead to the following conclusions. first, we theorize that the arctic warming in the 1920s-1930s and the subsequent cooling until about 1970 are due to natural fluctuations internal to the climate system. secondly, we believe there are strong indications that neither the warming trend nor the decrease of ice extent and volume over the last two decades can be explained by natural processes alone. thirdly, the state-of-the-art echam4 and hadcm3 coupled climate models both predict a dramatic decrease of the ice cover, which could result in a nearly ice-free arctic ocean during summer at the end of this century.
What is the result and conclusion?
results and conclusions modeling results find increases in abundance, geographical range, and seasonal extent of available habitat for vibrio in the chesapeake bay, the probability of occurrence of v. vulnificus is projected to increase by nearly 16% in the shoulder months of the growing season (may and september), with a similar increase in abundance of v
describe temperature projection?
analysis of temperature projections for alaskan coastal waters based on an average of four climate models showed that habitat availability for vibrio growth will increase to nearly 60% of the alaskan shoreline in august by the 2090s
What should Source of uncertainty include?
sources of uncertainty include different rates of warming associated with each model ensemble and other factors that affect growth and abundance, but all models used in this study project warming of coastal waters
results and conclusions modeling results find increases in abundance, geographical range, and seasonal extent of available habitat for vibrio in the chesapeake bay, the probability of occurrence of v. vulnificus is projected to increase by nearly 16% in the shoulder months of the growing season (may and september), with a similar increase in abundance of v. parahaemolyticus in oysters (figure 4). analysis of temperature projections for alaskan coastal waters based on an average of four climate models showed that habitat availability for vibrio growth will increase to nearly 60% of the alaskan shoreline in august by the 2090s (figure 5). sources of uncertainty include different rates of warming associated with each model ensemble and other factors that affect growth and abundance, but all models used in this study project warming of coastal waters.
what are the two main difficulties in the determination of the biomass in anaerobic digesters?
the determination of the biomass in anaerobic digesters presents two main difficulties: (i) in some systems, the microorganisms are attached to small inert particles; and (ii) the biomass is usually present as a consortium of different morphologic and physiologic types
How is the evaluation of the amount of biomass is made?
the evaluation of the amount of biomass is usually made through the determination of the vertical solids profile, considering that the volatile solids are a measure of the biomass present in the reactor (mass of cellular material
What does the determination of the biomass and the microbial composition requires?
the determination of the biomass and the microbial composition usually requires the extraction, isolation and separation of the biochemical constituents that are specific to a certain group of microorganisms
the determination of the biomass in anaerobic digesters presents two main difficulties: (i) in some systems, the microorganisms are attached to small inert particles; and (ii) the biomass is usually present as a consortium of different morphologic and physiologic types. the determination of the biomass and the microbial composition usually requires the extraction, isolation and separation of the biochemical constituents that are specific to a certain group of microorganisms. the cellular components that change quickly in nature, after the death of a cell, can be used, for example, for the estimation of the viable biomass. although there are several methodologies to evaluate the amount and activity of the biomass in anaerobic digesters, most of them are sophisticated and cannot be adopted as control and monitoring parameters for reactors operating in full scale, especially if considering the existing laboratory resources in many developing countries. hence, the evaluation of the amount of biomass is usually made through the determination of the vertical solids profile, considering that the volatile solids are a measure of the biomass present in the reactor (mass of cellular material). sludge samples collected at different levels of the reactor height are gravimetrically analysed and the results are expressed in terms of grams of volatile solids per litre (gvs/l). these concentration values of volatile solids (made for each of the sludge sampling points along the reactor height), multiplied by the volumes corresponding toeachsampledzone,providethemassofmicroorganismsalongthereactorprofile. the sum of the biomass quantities in each zone is equal to the total mass of solids in the reactor, as shown in example 25.1. biomass in anaerobic systems 701 example 25.1 determine the amount and the average concentration of the biomass in an anaerobic reactor. data are:
How often did the authors calculate daily temperature?
we calculated the total precipitation in the rainfall event that triggered each germination cohort and the average daily temperature during and for 5 days following the rainfall event for all cohorts in the 25-year data set
What software program was used to help define gerrmination niches?
in this case, we ordinated all germination cohorts, rather than years as in the earlier ordination, based on dissimilarity in the abundance of each species that germinated with the software pc-ord (mccune mefford, 1999
How was the average vegetative physiology of each cohort calculated?
the average vegetative physiology of each cohort was calculated by weighting the physiological pc score of each species by its abundance in that cohort (see 'physiological traits' for more details or huxman et al ., 2008
after we determined that germination was primarily responsible for the shifts in relative abundance and community composition (see 'results'), we investigated the germination niches of the species and related niche dimensions to abundance patterns. we investigated the rainfall and temperature components of the germination niches of each of the nine focal species. we calculated the total precipitation in the rainfall event that triggered each germination cohort and the average daily temperature during and for 5 days following the rainfall event for all cohorts in the 25-year data set. maximum, mean, and minimum daily temperatures between september 1 and may 25 for 1982-2007 were all highly correlated r 4 0.86 for all variables for all years), so we report the average temperature. for some individuals it was difficult to determine the exact rainfall event that triggered germination, so we only included seedlings in cohorts larger than 100 individuals, which constituted 97% of all germinated individuals. the average temperature and precipitation conditions for germination were calculated for each species and the relationships between these germination niche variables and seedling abundance and physiological pc score were explored with regression. niche topographies were constructed for each species demonstrating the number of individuals that germinated under different temperature and rainfall regimes. to further define the germination niches of the nine focal species, we again used nmmds. in this case, we ordinated all germination cohorts, rather than years as in the earlier ordination, based on dissimilarity in the abundance of each species that germinated with the software pc-ord (mccune mefford, 1999). correlations of the species with position in ordination space were calculated. the average vegetative physiology of each cohort was calculated by weighting the physiological pc score of each species by its abundance in that cohort (see 'physiological traits' for more details or huxman et al ., 2008). the resulting cohort physiological pc value was included in the secondary matrix to calculate the correlations with ordination space. the total precipitation in the rainfall event that triggered germination, cumulative precipitation that season before the germination event, average temperature during and for 5 days following the rain event, and calendar date of the year were also included in the secondary matrix and correlated with ordination space.
What are the changes in the atmospheric ?
we have examined a discrepancy between observed temperature trends over the central u.s. and gcm projections by using a regional climate model with finer resolution than current global models. we found a local minimum of warming in the central u.s. that is associated with a linkage between changes in atmospheric circulation (incidence of the great plains llj), soil moisture, and the surface energy balance
What is local minimum warming?
that is associated with a linkage between changes in atmospheric circulation (incidence of the great plains llj), soil moisture, and the surface energy balance. in a simulation of an enhanced greenhouse-gas scenario, lljs occurred with higher frequency in the southcentral u.s. and with lower frequency in the north-central u.s
What is soil moisture?
greater moisture convergence implied by the north-south gradient in changes of llj frequency produced increased precipitation from may through july in the projected climate, which in turn led to increased summer soil moisture, enhanced evapotranspiration, and reduced surface warming during july to figure 3. warm-season monthly change in daily precipitation (dp), evapotranspiration (de), and sensible heat flux (dh) in the warming hole delineated by the inner frame in figure 1a. figure 4. observed summer (june-july-august) daily mean temperature changes (k) between 1976-2000 (based on folland et
we have examined a discrepancy between observed temperature trends over the central u.s. and gcm projections by using a regional climate model with finer resolution than current global models. we found a local minimum of warming in the central u.s. that is associated with a linkage between changes in atmospheric circulation (incidence of the great plains llj), soil moisture, and the surface energy balance. in a simulation of an enhanced greenhouse-gas scenario, lljs occurred with higher frequency in the southcentral u.s. and with lower frequency in the north-central u.s. from may through july (figure 2a). greater moisture convergence implied by the north-south gradient in changes of llj frequency produced increased precipitation from may through july in the projected climate, which in turn led to increased summer soil moisture, enhanced evapotranspiration, and reduced surface warming during july to figure 3. warm-season monthly change in daily precipitation (dp), evapotranspiration (de), and sensible heat flux (dh) in the warming hole delineated by the inner frame in figure 1a. figure 4. observed summer (june-july-august) daily mean temperature changes (k) between 1976-2000 (based on folland et al. [2001]).
What did the observational evidence presented in the the previous section reveal?
the observational evidence presented in the previous sections has revealed some significant changes in the surface climate of the tropical andes over recent decades
What does OLR data indicate?
olr data indicates that convective cloud cover has increased slightly during djf, especially in the inner tropics
Are the trend in cloud cover consistent?
the trends in cloud cover are consistent
the observational evidence presented in the previous sections has revealed some significant changes in the surface climate of the tropical andes over recent decades. olr data indicates that convective cloud cover has increased slightly during djf, especially in the inner tropics, while the significant positive olr trends in jja are difficult to interpret. the significance of the results is further limited by the short time series of available ect-corrected olr data, which in our analysis only covers 20 years (1979-1998). nonetheless the trends in cloud cover are consistent with other reports of observed decrease in olr over the amazon basin (chu et al., 1994; chen et al., 2001) and are also in general accordance with the results from the precipitation analysis indicating a weak tendency toward increased precipitation
CCSP stands for?
the u.s. climate change science program
Assumptions about future climate ?
assumptions about future climate states have implicitly been represented in the planning, design, operation, and major rehabilitation of local and regional water resource systems
what if Once water resource systems are constructed?
once water resource systems are constructed, the continued operation of these systems is affected by retrospective, current, and near-term future climate information. retrospective climate information comes into play when operating constraints and water-supply forecast models are updated to reflect recent trends in climate. for example, the redevelopment of water-supply forecast models would be based on an expanded or more recent retrospective record of streamflow and climate observations
the u.s. climate change science program (ccsp) (2008b) notes that "...mismatches between needs and information resources continue to occur at multiple levels and scales. currently there is substantial tension between providing tools at the space and time scales useful for water resources decisions that are also scientifically accurate, reliable and timely." assumptions about future climate states have implicitly been represented in the planning, design, operation, and major rehabilitation of local and regional water resource systems. traditionally, these systems have been designed to operate within an envelope of climate variability defined by observed (past) streamflow and weather variations on different time and space scales. by focusing on streamflow and weather variations 1 \\x18 in a retrospective period, there is an inherent assumption that the envelope of these variations will remain unchanged in the future; that is, they will be stationary during the operation of the system. once water resource systems are constructed, the continued operation of these systems is affected by retrospective, current, and near-term future climate information. retrospective climate information comes into play when operating constraints and water-supply forecast models are updated to reflect recent trends in climate. for example, the redevelopment of water-supply forecast models would be based on an expanded or more recent retrospective record of streamflow and climate observations. likewise, the redevelopment of flood control rules would conceivably be based on an expanded record of flood hydrology data. current and nearterm future climate information (for example, seasonal to 1year forecasts) might be used to determine annual performance objectives. for example, annual water allocations to system water contractors (that is, the fraction of full-contract water entitlements that contractors can expect to receive during the coming year) are based on current water stocks and forecast water supplies, the latter being dependent on near-term climate forecast information. because of the importance of climate in system design and operations, it is apparent that climate change could translate into changed design and operational assumptions about resource supplies, system demands or performance requirements, and operational constraints, impacting all sectors of water resources management. the significance of such changes depends on the increment of climate change over the project life cycle and the operational outcome of concern. if an increment is sufficiently large, the assumed hydroclimatic variability underlying system design may no longer be valid.
What is the simplest interpretation of the results, presented in the article?
the simple interpretation of these results is that although the sign of precipitation change is most often unknown, climate models generally agree that the magnitude of change will not be very large relative to historical year-to-year variability, even if we consider models with the most extreme precipitation projections
What is the average warming projected for 2030?
and the mean projected warming for 2030 is more than twice the historical standard deviation of temperature
GCM projections are a representation of what?
these statements assume that the inter-model standard deviation of gcm projections is a fair representation of climate uncertainty, an assumption that has been widely challenged, particularly in the case of precipitation 17-19 ], in part on the grounds that different climate models are not independent
the simple interpretation of these results is that although the sign of precipitation change is most often unknown, climate models generally agree that the magnitude of change will not be very large relative to historical year-to-year variability, even if we consider models with the most extreme precipitation projections. in contrast, even the uncertainty surrounding temperature projections are large relative to historical variability, and the mean projected warming for 2030 is more than twice the historical standard deviation of temperature. these statements assume that the inter-model standard deviation of gcm projections is a fair representation of climate uncertainty, an assumption that has been widely challenged, particularly in the case of precipitation 17-19 ], in part on the grounds that different climate models are not independent. nonetheless, even if the true uncertainties in future precipitation changes were twice as large as those estimated using inter-model differences, they would still 3
Was there a clear pattern of asymmetry between extreme wet and dry years with regard to their relative deviation in precipitation amount from average years?
there was a clear pattern of asymmetry between these types of years with regard to their relative deviation in precipitation amount from average years
In general, what can we say about sites with MAP above 1000 mm?
in general, for sites with map above 1000 mm, annual precipitation in extreme wet years was 40% greater than in average years
What could happen if MAP is low?
when map is low could result if absolute deviations from average were constant for wet and dry years (due to a decreasing denominator
based on the 90th and 10th percentile thresholds for defining extreme wet and dry years, respectively, there was a clear pattern of asymmetry between these types of years with regard to their relative deviation in precipitation amount from average years (fig. 1). in general, for sites with map above 1000 mm, annual precipitation in extreme wet years was 40% greater than in average years, and this increased dramatically as map decreased in more arid sites (up to 150% at 100 mm map). in contrast, annual precipitation in extreme dry years was 30% below average for sites with map 1000 mm, and this deviation increased to 60% as map decreased to 100 mm (fig. 1). this pattern of greater relative deviations from average occurring when map is low could result if absolute deviations from average were constant for wet and dry years (due to a decreasing denominator). but, this was not the case as the absolute deviation in precipitation from average for extreme wet and dry years decreased with map. the
What is the discussion all about?
this section presents a discussion on the establishment of quality standards. in the perspective of this book, these standards are an important topic in the prevention and control of the impacts of the discharges of wastewater, which are the main issue of this chapter. this section, based on von sperling and fattal (2001) and von sperling chernicharo (2002), analyses the practical implementation of standards, with a special focus on developing countries
What is the impact of the discharge of urban wastewater and how could we protect quality of water resources?
the impact of the discharge of urban wastewater into rivers, lakes, estuaries and the sea is a matter of great concern in most countries. an important point in this scenario is the establishment of an adequate legislation for the protection of the quality of water resources, this being a crucial point in the environmental and public health development of all countries. most developed nations have already surpassed the basic stages of water pollution problems, and are currently finetuning the control of micro-pollutants, the impacts of pollutants in sensitive areas or the pollution caused by drainage of stormwater. however, developing nations are under constant pressure, from one side observing or attempting to follow the international trends of frequently lowering the limit concentrations of the standards, and from the other side being unable to reverse the continuous trend of environmental degradation. the increase in the sanitary infrastructure can barely cope with the net population growth in many countries
How are the developing countries handle this pollution control management and what needs to be done to make the public health and environmental better?
in most developing nations the concentrations of pollutants discharged into the water bodies are still very high, and efforts are directed towards reducing the distance to the discharge standards, and eventually achieving compliance. an adequate legislation for the protection of public health and the quality of water resources is an essential tool in the environmental development of all countries. the transfer of written codes from paper into really practicable standards, which are used not merely for enforcement, but mainly as an integral part of the public health and environmental protection policy, has been a challenge for most countries. besides the water quality requirements (see section 1.3) that represent in a generalised and conceptual way the desired quality for a water, there is the need to establish quality standards, supported by a legal framework. standards must be impact of wastewater discharges to water bodies 153
this section presents a discussion on the establishment of quality standards. in the perspective of this book, these standards are an important topic in the prevention and control of the impacts of the discharges of wastewater, which are the main issue of this chapter. this section, based on von sperling and fattal (2001) and von sperling chernicharo (2002), analyses the practical implementation of standards, with a special focus on developing countries. the impact of the discharge of urban wastewater into rivers, lakes, estuaries and the sea is a matter of great concern in most countries. an important point in this scenario is the establishment of an adequate legislation for the protection of the quality of water resources, this being a crucial point in the environmental and public health development of all countries. most developed nations have already surpassed the basic stages of water pollution problems, and are currently finetuning the control of micro-pollutants, the impacts of pollutants in sensitive areas or the pollution caused by drainage of stormwater. however, developing nations are under constant pressure, from one side observing or attempting to follow the international trends of frequently lowering the limit concentrations of the standards, and from the other side being unable to reverse the continuous trend of environmental degradation. the increase in the sanitary infrastructure can barely cope with the net population growth in many countries. the implementation of sanitation and sewage treatment depends largely on political will and, even when this is present, financial constraints are the final barrier to undermine the necessary steps towards environmental restoration and public health maintenance. time passes, and the distance between desirable and achievable, between laws and reality, continues to enlarge. figure 3.20 presents a comparison between the current status of developed and developing countries in terms of actual effluent concentrations of a particular pollutant and its associated discharge standard. in most developed countries, compliance occurs for most of the time, and the main concern relates to occasional episodes of non-compliance, at which most of the current effort is concentrated. however, in most developing nations the concentrations of pollutants discharged into the water bodies are still very high, and efforts are directed towards reducing the distance to the discharge standards, and eventually achieving compliance. an adequate legislation for the protection of public health and the quality of water resources is an essential tool in the environmental development of all countries. the transfer of written codes from paper into really practicable standards, which are used not merely for enforcement, but mainly as an integral part of the public health and environmental protection policy, has been a challenge for most countries. besides the water quality requirements (see section 1.3) that represent in a generalised and conceptual way the desired quality for a water, there is the need to establish quality standards, supported by a legal framework. standards must be impact of wastewater discharges to water bodies 153
What can be said of many sandy beach species?
many sandy beach species are patchily distributed at several spatial scales (gimenez yannicelli 2000; defeo mclachlan 2005
What is important about the area?
it is, therefore, important that the area of a single sample is large enough to capture small-scale variability in the distribution of the organisms
Give examples of rules regarding the size of sampling device?
there are few general rules regarding the size of sampling devices other than that they efficiently capture the abundance and diversity of specimens in the habitat, and that they provide estimates with acceptable accuracy
many sandy beach species are patchily distributed at several spatial scales (gimenez yannicelli 2000; defeo mclachlan 2005). it is, therefore, important that the area of a single sample is large enough to capture small-scale variability in the distribution of the organisms. this can be most easily achieved by collecting several small cores; this reduces the probability of collecting only from a single patch of organisms (or a gap), as might happen with a single large core. however, there is a lower limit to the size of a core. cores that are small relative to the size of the organisms will damage more specimens causing problems in identifications as well as density and biomass measurements (de grave casey 2000). there are few general rules regarding the size of sampling devices other than that they efficiently capture the abundance and diversity of specimens in the habitat, and that they provide estimates with acceptable accuracy. both requirements can be met by taking large numbers of samples, which favour the use of small sampling devices (to minimise sampling effort). but, when the sampling device is very small relative to the scale of patchiness, zeroes can dominate the data set, and even a precise estimate can routinely include zero within its confidence interval. this situation can result in nonsensical analyses, often with poor analytical power (where power is the likelihood
Are tropical storms getting stronger?
the power of atlantic tropical cyclones is rising rather dramatically and the increase is correlated with an increase in the late summer/early fall sea surface temperature over the north atlantic
Why are tropical storms getting stronger?
 a debate concerns the nature of these increases with some studies attributing them to a natural climate fluctuation, known as the atlantic multidecadal oscillation (amo), and others suggesting climate change related to anthropogenic increases in radiative forcing from greenhouse-gases
Can we predict these cyclones?
results show that gt is useful in predicting atlantic sst, but not the other way around. thus gt ''causes'' sst providing additional evidence in support of the climate change hypothesis. results have serious implications for life and property throughout the caribbean, mexico, and portions of the united states. citation: elsner, j. b. (2006), evidence in support of the climate change-atlantic hurricane hypothesis, geophys. res. lett. 33 l16705, doi:10.1029/2006gl026869
the power of atlantic tropical cyclones is rising rather dramatically and the increase is correlated with an increase in the late summer/early fall sea surface temperature over the north atlantic. a debate concerns the nature of these increases with some studies attributing them to a natural climate fluctuation, known as the atlantic multidecadal oscillation (amo), and others suggesting climate change related to anthropogenic increases in radiative forcing from greenhouse-gases. here tests for causality using the global mean near-surface air temperature (gt) and atlantic sea surface temperature (sst) records during the atlantic hurricane season are applied. results show that gt is useful in predicting atlantic sst, but not the other way around. thus gt ''causes'' sst providing additional evidence in support of the climate change hypothesis. results have serious implications for life and property throughout the caribbean, mexico, and portions of the united states. citation: elsner, j. b. (2006), evidence in support of the climate change-atlantic hurricane hypothesis, geophys. res. lett. 33 l16705, doi:10.1029/2006gl026869.
Who in 2008 accepted Crutzen's definition and dating of the Anthropocene?
but the february 2008 newsletter of the geological society of america, gsa today opens with a statement signed by the members of the stratigraphy commission of the geological society of london accepting crutzen's definition and dating of the anthropocene
What is the Anthropocene an informal metaphor of?
the anthropocene--currently a vivid yet informal metaphor of global environmental change
What is the Anthropocene geological epoch to be considered for?
sufficient evidence has emerged of stratigraphically significant change (both elapsed and imminent) for recognition of the anthropocene--currently a vivid yet informal metaphor of global environmental change--as a new geological epoch to be considered for formalization by international discussion
bologna after about fifty years in 1885 (see "a," p. 17 ). the same goes for anthropocene. scientists have engaged crutzen and his colleagues on the question of when exactly the anthropocene may have begun. but the february 2008 newsletter of the geological society of america, gsa today opens with a statement signed by the members of the stratigraphy commission of the geological society of london accepting crutzen's definition and dating of the anthropocene.34adopting a "conservative" approach, they conclude: "sufficient evidence has emerged of stratigraphically significant change (both elapsed and imminent) for recognition of the anthropocene--currently a vivid yet informal metaphor of global environmental change--as a new geological epoch to be considered for formalization by international discussion."35there is increasing evidence that the term is gradually winning acceptance among social scientists as well.36
What did the UNFCCC study not estimate?
the unfccc study did not estimate the total value of impacts avoided by adaptation to climate change, so it could not determine whether the benefits of avoided damage exceed the adaptation costs (unfccc, 2008, executive summary, paragraph 33
What is PAGE2002?
page2002 is a simulation model, estimating the climate consequences and impacts that result from a user-specified emissions scenario
Why PAGE uses probability distributions?
because many aspects of climate change are subject to uncertainty, page uses probability distributions, based on the best available estimates found in the literature, to represent key inputs to the calculations
the unfccc study did not estimate the total value of impacts avoided by adaptation to climate change, so it could not determine whether the benefits of avoided damage exceed the adaptation costs (unfccc, 2008, executive summary, paragraph 33). this short chapter begins to address this gap by showing how the costs and benefits of adaptation are treated in a global probabilistic integrated assessment model. it takes as a case study the costs and benefits found by the model used to calculate impacts in the stern review (stern, 2006), the page2002 model, with the same inputs as used in the stern review (including a 0.1% pure time preference rate, and an equity weight of 1). the costs and benefits of adaptation are shown for the non-intervention emissions from the a2 scenario. we also investigate the costs and benefits of adaptation in a strict abatement scenario designed to keep atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (co2) below 450ppm. page2002 is a simulation model, estimating the climate consequences and impacts that result from a user-specified emissions scenario. it uses a number of simplified formulas to represent the complex scientific and economic interactions of climate change. a full description of the model can be found in hope (2006). most of the model's coefficients and data ranges are calibrated to match the projections of the third assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc, 2001a; ipcc, 2001b). because many aspects of climate change are subject to uncertainty, page uses probability distributions, based on the best available estimates found in the literature, to represent key inputs to the calculations. using these input distributions, page performs a version of monte carlo analysis called latin hypercube sampling. the model includes ten time intervals spanning 200 years, divides the world into eight regions, and explicitly considers three different greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane, and sulphur hexafluoride), with other gases included as an excess forcing projection.
What may constitute an indirect biotic response to both climate warming and habitat modification?
downslope range shifts of species may constitute an indirect biotic response to both climate warming and habitat modification
What is the hypothesis?
in our conceptual model, we assume, on a timescale too short for adaptative change, that downslope shifts primarily occur for species that are strongly limited by competition at their lower elevation range margin, and therefore have a realised distribution that do no fill their potential distribution areas almost completely along the elevation gradient
What kind of species could be selected to test this hypothesis?
to test this hypothesis, one could select two sets of species: one set of species that have significantly shifted downslope and another set of species that have significantly shifted upslope
we suggest that downslope range shifts of species may constitute an indirect biotic response to both climate warming and habitat modification rather than representing just random effects due to stochastic fluctuations in population distributions or observer errors. the concept presented here should become part of a general framework for future studies of changes in species distributions in response to climate warming. in our conceptual model, we assume, on a timescale too short for adaptative change, that downslope shifts primarily occur for species that are strongly limited by competition at their lower elevation range margin, and therefore have a realised distribution that do no fill their potential distribution areas almost completely along the elevation gradient. to test this hypothesis, one could select two sets of species: one set of species that have significantly shifted downslope and another set of species that have significantly shifted upslope. one could then compare their realised distribution in their natural habitats with their potential distribution areas additionally assessed by experiments (common garden or ecotron). in such an experiment, we would expect larger differences between the realised and the potential distributions along the elevation gradient for the set of species that have significantly shifted downslope. although downslope range shifts, particularly where solely driven by warming-induced competitive release, should be only transient, we underpin the necessity to take the hitherto neglected downslope range shifts of species more explicitly into consideration when making predictions of the effects of future climate change scenarios on species distributions.
What is climate change?
human-induced climate change and its impacts will continue for many decades, and in some cases for many centuries. the ultimate magnitude of climate change and the severity of its impacts depend strongly on the actions that human societies take to respond to these risks." increasing certainty about these fundamental climate change phenomena is reflected in ever more definitive language in consensus judgments of the scientific community, such as the ipcc assessment reports of 1990, 1995, 2001, and 2007 and other independent assessments of the evidence (e.g., karl et al., 2009
What are the given level of emissions?
uncertainties involve how much warming will result from a given level of emissions (called "climate sensitivity") and, given a specific amount of warming, which effects on natural and human systems will occur when, where, and to what degree. the uncertainties are due to the complexity of the system, the incomplete basic understanding of some of its parts and of their interactions, the fact that the system is rapidly moving outside the bounds within which historical observations exist, and the fact that human activities will change both the trajectory of climate change and the vulnerability of the affected people and places in ways that are not fully predictable
What are the consequences?
some consequences, such as eventual loss of habitat for the polar bear, can be predicted with fairly high probability; others, such as the geographic locations of future extreme storms or heat waves, are much less predictable. uncertainty is not restricted to negative consequences of climate change but also extends to predictions about consequences that might have positive utility for specific regions or time periods, such as sections of canada or siberia becoming more habitable or arable
"human-induced climate change and its impacts will continue for many decades, and in some cases for many centuries. the ultimate magnitude of climate change and the severity of its impacts depend strongly on the actions that human societies take to respond to these risks." increasing certainty about these fundamental climate change phenomena is reflected in ever more definitive language in consensus judgments of the scientific community, such as the ipcc assessment reports of 1990, 1995, 2001, and 2007 and other independent assessments of the evidence (e.g., karl et al., 2009; national research council, 2010a, 2011). of 1,395 signatories of major public statements endorsing or rejecting these tenets on scientific grounds, 97%-98% of those who are active and prominent climate scientists were endorsers3(anderegg, prall, harold, schneider, 2010). many other important aspects of climate change, particularly about its consequences, are less well established. estimates of these have various degrees of uncertainty. uncertainties involve how much warming will result from a given level of emissions (called "climate sensitivity") and, given a specific amount of warming, which effects on natural and human systems will occur when, where, and to what degree. the uncertainties are due to the complexity of the system, the incomplete basic understanding of some of its parts and of their interactions, the fact that the system is rapidly moving outside the bounds within which historical observations exist, and the fact that human activities will change both the trajectory of climate change and the vulnerability of the affected people and places in ways that are not fully predictable. some consequences, such as eventual loss of habitat for the polar bear, can be predicted with fairly high probability; others, such as the geographic locations of future extreme storms or heat waves, are much less predictable. uncertainty is not restricted to negative consequences of climate change but also extends to predictions about consequences that might have positive utility for specific regions or time periods, such as sections of canada or siberia becoming more habitable or arable. of particular concern to some scientists is the possibility of catastrophic climate events as the result of changes in a complex and incompletely understood system that has moved outside the bounds of historical experience. climate catastrophes may be highly unlikely, but their probabilities cannot be confidently estimated, so they cannot be ruled out. these possibilities have led many scientists to become seriously concerned about climate change as a threat to the natural environment and to human well-being (e.g., hansen, 2009). they have also led many national security
What really had any significant impact in reversing the trend of increasing emissions? just the global economic recession
two years on from earlier analysis by anderson bows 2 ], only the global economic slump has had any significant impact in reversing the trend of rising emissions
What is the outcome of Copenhagen's efforts to reach a binding agreement to reduce emissions? There was a failure
however, with annex 1 and non-annex 1 nations returning rapidly to their earlier economic and emissions trajectories and with the failure of copenhagen to achieve a binding agreement to reduce emissions
What is the result of disaggregating the global issue? it only serves to exacerbate the scale of this disjunction between rhetoric and the reality of mitigation
furthermore, disaggregating global into annex 1 and nonannex 1 emission pathways only serves to exacerbate the scale of this disjuncture between the rhetoric and reality of mitigation
two years on from earlier analysis by anderson bows 2 ], only the global economic slump has had any significant impact in reversing the trend of rising emissions. however, with annex 1 and non-annex 1 nations returning rapidly to their earlier economic and emissions trajectories and with the failure of copenhagen to achieve a binding agreement to reduce emissions in line with 2*c, the prospects for avoiding dangerous climate change, if they exist at all, are increasingly slim. furthermore, disaggregating global into annex 1 and nonannex 1 emission pathways only serves to exacerbate the scale of this disjuncture between the rhetoric and reality of mitigation. in both these regards and with the continued high-level reluctance to face the real scale and urgency of the mitigation challenge, the conclusions arising from this paper are significantly bleaker than those of the authors' 2008 paper.
What can cause breakdown in independent NINO3.4 sea surface temperature (SST) reconstructions?
this breakdown in common signal could be related to insufficient data, dating errors in some of the proxy records or a breakdown in el nin~o-southern oscillation's (enso's) influence on other regions
What data may be used to calibrate independent NINO3.4 sea surface temperature (SST) reconstructions?
in this study we compare three newly developed independent nino3.4 sea surface temperature (sst) reconstructions using data from (1) the central pacific (corals), (2) the texmex region of the usa (tree rings) and (3) other regions in the tropics (corals and an ice core) which are teleconnected with central pacific ssts in the 20th century
What issues must be addressed in the future?
future work must address potential dating issues within some proxies (i.e. sampling of multiple coral heads for one location) as well as assessing the time stability of local climate relationships with central pacific ssts. more emphasis is needed on sampling new and extending old coral proxy records from the crucial central and eastern tropical pacific region
in this study we compare three newly developed independent nino3.4 sea surface temperature (sst) reconstructions using data from (1) the central pacific (corals), (2) the texmex region of the usa (tree rings) and (3) other regions in the tropics (corals and an ice core) which are teleconnected with central pacific ssts in the 20th century. although these three reconstructions are strongly calibrated and well verified, inter-proxy comparison shows a significant weakening in interproxy coherence in the 19th century. this breakdown in common signal could be related to insufficient data, dating errors in some of the proxy records or a breakdown in el nin~o-southern oscillation's (enso's) influence on other regions. however, spectral analysis indicates that each reconstruction portrays enso-like spectral properties. superposed epoch analysis also shows that each reconstruction shows a generally consistent 'el nin~o-like' response to major volcanic events in the following year, while during years t th 4 to t th 7 'la nin~a-like' conditions prevail. these results suggest that each of the series expresses enso-like 'behaviour', but this 'behaviour' does not appear to be spatially or temporally consistent. this result may reflect published observations that there appear to be distinct 'types' of enso variability depending on location within the tropical pacific. future work must address potential dating issues within some proxies (i.e. sampling of multiple coral heads for one location) as well as assessing the time stability of local climate relationships with central pacific ssts. more emphasis is needed on sampling new and extending old coral proxy records from the crucial central and eastern tropical pacific region. copyright 2009 john wiley sons, ltd. and crown copyright 2009.
What is a useful way to develop strategies for resilience?
useful way to develop strategies for resilience is to map the network structures within the biophysical and socio-economic systems, and the connections between them
What do we mean by "undesirable linkages"?
subsidies and other payments that keep fishers in particular locations and enterprises
a useful way to develop strategies for resilience is to map the network structures within the biophysical and socio-economic systems, and the connections between them. some 'linkages' may need to be strengthened to help fish populations respond to shocks such as changing gear selectivity to ensure the targeted fish population has a wider distribution of aged cohorts. by contrast, undesirable linkages such as subsidies and other payments that keep fishers in particular locations and enterprises 9 9 may need to be diminished or removed to allow them to effectively respond to environmental signals and avoid 'lock in' of undesirable and inflexible fishing behavior.
What are the calibration methods?
the calibration methods assessed include the commonly used 'delta' (change factor) and 'nudging' (bias correction) approaches
producing projections of future crop yields requires careful thought about the appropriate use of atmosphere-ocean global climate model (aogcm) simulations. here we describe and demonstrate multiple methods for 'calibrating' climate projections using an ensemble of aogcm simulations in a 'perfect sibling' framework. crucially, this type of analysis assesses the ability of each calibration methodology to produce reliable estimates of future climate, which is not possible just using historical observations. this type of approach could be more widely adopted for assessing calibration methodologies for crop modelling. the calibration methods assessed include the commonly used 'delta' (change factor) and 'nudging' (bias correction) approaches. we focus on daily maximum temperature in summer over europe for this idealised case study, but the methods can be generalised to other variables and other regions. the calibration methods, which are relatively easy to implement given appropriate observations, produce more robust projections of future daily maximum temperatures and heat stress than using raw model output. the choice over which calibration method to use will likely depend on the situation, but change factor approaches tend to perform best in our examples. finally, we demonstrate that the uncertainty due to the choice of calibration methodology is a significant contributor to the total uncertainty in future climate projections for impact studies. we conclude that utilising a variety of calibration methods on output from a wide range of aogcms is essential to produce climate data that will ensure robust and reliable crop yield projections. keywords: calibration, climate projections, climate model, crop model, delta method, weather generator, bias correction
What is a significant limiting factor in the analysis of humidity changes?
lack of appropriate data has been a significant limiting factor in the analysis of humidity changes
What kind of regions should exhibit larger increases in specific humidity for a given temperature change?
warmer regions should exhibit larger increases in specific humidity for a given temperature change
What kind of estimates identified the anthropogenic water vapor fingerprint simulated by an ensemble of 22 climate models?
the anthropogenic water vapor fingerprint simulated by an ensemble of 22 climate models has also been identified in lower tropospheric moisture content estimates derived from ssm/i data covering the period 1988-2006
lack of appropriate data has been a significant limiting factor in the analysis of humidity changes, although there has been some recent progress with the development of the hadcruh surface humidity dataset.47,48 hadcruh (as shown in figure 6) indicates significant increases between 1973 and 2003 in surface-specific humidity over the globe, the tropics, and the northern hemisphere, with consistently larger trends in the tropics and in the northern hemisphere during summer, and negative and nonsignificant trends in relative humidity. this is in accord with the cc-relation: warmer regions should exhibit larger increases in specific humidity for a given temperature change. anthropogenic influence has been clearly detected in this surface humidity dataset.47the anthropogenic water vapor fingerprint simulated by an ensemble of 22 climate models has also been identified in lower tropospheric moisture content estimates derived from ssm/i data covering the period 1988-2006.49
What shifted the ecotone of northern New Mexico in the 1950s?
one severe drought
Did the ecotone revert back to previous climate conditions after the drought?
the ecotone has remained stable since then, even though climatic conditions returned to those prevalent before the drought
Is it easier to find mean data or climate data of weather extremes?
generally, mean values are easy to access, whereas climate data concerning weather extremes that are linked to ecosystems in proper spatial and temporal resolution are rare
one severe drought that affected northern new mexico in the 1950s shifted the ecotone between ponderosa pine forest pinus ponderosa and pinon-juniper woodland pinus edulis and juniperus monosperma respectively) extensively (> 2 km in 5 yrs; allen and breshears 1998). the most striking feature of this example is that the ecotone has remained stable since then, even though climatic conditions returned to those prevalent before the drought. the importance of extreme events is not yet acknowledged as widely as climatic mean attributes in biogeography and population ecology. generally, mean values are easy to access, whereas climate data concerning weather extremes that are linked to ecosystems in proper spatial and temporal resolution are rare.
How can we evaluate potential ocean climate indices?
to evaluate potential ocean climate indices, we need a numerical measure of the strength of the association between the behavior of a candidate index and land climate
How can we accurately compare the values of the area weighted correlations of candidate indices?
first we decided to look at the area weighted correlation of random time series since this gives us a means of judging how spurious the area weighted correlation of a time series might be. the histogram of the area weighted correlation of 1000 random time series is shown in figure 5. we can see that no random time series have an area weighted correlation greater than 0.09, which indicates that 0.l might be a good baseline level to use as a threshold for deeming a candidate index worthy of consideration
How is area-weighted correlation computed?
area-weighted correlation is computed as follows. we first compute the correlation of the time series of the candidate climate index with the time series associated with each land point. we then compute the weighted average of the absolute correlations of each land point, where the weight associated with each land point is just its area. (we use absolute correlation because we are interested in the strength of the connections between ocean/atmosphere and land, not the direction.) the resulting area-weighted correlation value can be at most 1 (this would be the case where all land time series have a correlation of 1 or -1 with the candidate index), but is normally much lower. the minimum value of area weighted correlation is 0. note that if area weighted correlation of a candidate index is too low, it could mean that either it is not a good index, or it impacts only a small number of land grid points
to evaluate potential ocean climate indices, we need a numerical measure of the strength of the association between the behavior of a candidate index and land climate. earth scientists have traditionally used correlation to measure the degree of association between two time series. in general, we are only interested in using a time series (cluster centroid, or otherwise) as an index if it shows a strong correlation-- positive or negative--with the behavior of a well-defined region of the land and if the strength of that correlation is comparable to that of known indices. to evaluate the influence of climate indices on land, we use area-weighted correlation which is the weighted average of the correlation of the climate index with all land points, where weight is based on the area of the land grid point. area-weighted correlation is computed as follows. we first compute the correlation of the time series of the candidate climate index with the time series associated with each land point. we then compute the weighted average of the absolute correlations of each land point, where the weight associated with each land point is just its area. (we use absolute correlation because we are interested in the strength of the connections between ocean/atmosphere and land, not the direction.) the resulting area-weighted correlation value can be at most 1 (this would be the case where all land time series have a correlation of 1 or -1 with the candidate index), but is normally much lower. the minimum value of area weighted correlation is 0. note that if area weighted correlation of a candidate index is too low, it could mean that either it is not a good index, or it impacts only a small number of land grid points. accounting for lags as mentioned earlier, since the same earth science phenomenon can occur at different times in different places, we want to use a form of area weighted correlation that takes these lags into account. thus, it is necessary to compute the area-weighted correlation for various shifts. this involves shifting two time series to simulate leads (lags) of up to six months, computing the correlation, and then taking the 'best' (highest positive or negative value) as the correlation. this procedure is used in all of our evaluations. a baseline for area weighted correlation we need a baseline to compare the values of the area weighted correlations of candidate indices. first we decided to look at the area weighted correlation of random time series since this gives us a means of judging how spurious the area weighted correlation of a time series might be. the histogram of the area weighted correlation of 1000 random time series is shown in figure 5. we can see that no random time series have an area weighted correlation greater than 0.09, which indicates that 0.l might be a good baseline level to use as a threshold for deeming a candidate index worthy of consideration.
What are the best prospects for bifurcation?
in principle, the best prospects for bifurcation early warning should exist for relatively 'fast' systems with little internal memory
what can be used to help detect vulnerability?
models can be used to help identify direct indicators of vulnerability
If the connection is weak, what could guide what and which data is to be collected?
where the connection is weak, theory could guide what data should be collected and where
the targets for early warning systems should also be guided by scientific considerations. in principle, the best prospects for bifurcation early warning should exist for relatively 'fast' systems with little internal memory, for example, monsoons, because anthropogenic forcing is slow relative to their internal timescales, and only relatively short records of their past behaviour should be needed. however, they demand relatively higher resolution data, which must reveal the underlying dynamics of the system. models can be used to help identify direct indicators of vulnerability to tipping behaviour for specific systems (for example, indicators of bi-stability of the atlantic thc35), which can then be sought in data. also, models can be used to identify which variables already being monitored are best related to early warning indicators65. where the connection is weak, theory could guide what data should be collected and where. in many cases, the duration and/or resolution of past data records will need to be improved. real-time monitoring systems may also need to be improved (following the example of monitoring61 of the atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26.5deg n). generic early warning indicators warrant further development. tests on ecological models47 suggest it would be worth looking for increasing spatial correlation as an early warning indicator in climate data and models. indicators that make combined use of
During the experiment, when was the Antarctic Circumpolar Current strongest?
the antarctic circumpolar current is strongest in the early part of the experiment. from 9 to 5 ka, a gradual weakening is noted from 139 to 136 sv, followed by a slight recovery to 137 sv (not shown
What is the finding regarding the amount of Antarctic Bottom water exported during the experiment?
the amount of antarctic bottom water exported stays more or less stable throughout the experiment, as only a very minor decrease in the first 2 000 years is noted
What is the finding regarding strength of the ocean thermohaline circulation in the experiment?
in addition, the overall strength of the ocean thermohaline circulation, as for instance measured by the export of north atlantic deep water at 20 8 s, does not change significantly in our experiment (renssen et al ., 2005
the simulated changes in ocean circulation are relatively small. the antarctic circumpolar current is strongest in the early part of the experiment. from 9 to 5 ka, a gradual weakening is noted from 139 to 136 sv, followed by a slight recovery to 137 sv (not shown). the amount of antarctic bottom water exported stays more or less stable throughout the experiment, as only a very minor decrease in the first 2 000 years is noted. in addition, the overall strength of the ocean thermohaline circulation, as for instance measured by the export of north atlantic deep water at 20 8 s, does not change significantly in our experiment (renssen et al ., 2005).
What significant gaps are there?
there are significant gaps in knowledge, monitoring, and practice that limit incorporation of climate change considerations into water resources planning and management
What will collaboration in all of the activites allow?
collaboration in all of these activities may allow more rapid results and improved communication, both within the water resources community and to other stakeholders
What is sound water management built on?
sound water management is built on long-term hydrological and meteorological monitoring networks that provide sound, accurate, timely, and consistent data that can be used readily to develop and assess decisionmaking tools needed to quantify uncertainty, forecast change, and create the multiphase, multilevel climate scenarios that will provide reasonable and relevant management
there are significant gaps in knowledge, monitoring, and practice that limit incorporation of climate change considerations into water resources planning and management. climate change must be quantified with respect to the myriad of other natural and cultural issues that face the nation's water managers. sound water management is built on long-term hydrological and meteorological monitoring networks that provide sound, accurate, timely, and consistent data that can be used readily to develop and assess decisionmaking tools needed to quantify uncertainty, forecast change, and create the multiphase, multilevel climate scenarios that will provide reasonable and relevant management. changes to planning and analysis that better accommodate nonstationarity will improve water management. collaboration in all of these activities may allow more rapid results and improved communication, both within the water resources community and to other stakeholders.
To what responses the most prominent international?
the most prominent international responses to climate change focus on mitigation
What are the new frontiers?
linking adaptation and tropical forests are a new frontier
the most prominent international responses to climate change focus on mitigation (reducing the accumulation of greenhouse gases) rather than adaptation (reducing the vulnerability of societies and ecosystems). however, with some degree of climate change now recognised as inevitable, adaptation is gaining importance in the policy arena. moreover, it is one of the four building blocks of the 2-year bali action plan--ongoing negotiations towards an international framework to replace the kyoto protocol in 2012. this report presents the case for adaptation for forests (reducing the impacts of climate change on forests and their ecosystem services) and forests for adaptation (using forests to help local people and society in general to adapt to inevitable changes). linking adaptation and tropical forests are a new frontier: adaptation is a new arena for tropical foresters, and tropical forests are a new arena for adaptation specialists. tropical forest management now needs to be adapted in a way that will smooth the transition through climate change. the goal may be to maintain important ecosystems or species--where adaptation measures will aim at resisting the effects of climate change. alternatively, the goal may be to maintain the ecosystem services provided by the forest--where adaptation measures will aim at helping the forest to 'evolve' so that it does the same job in the new climate. the huge diversity of tropical forests and local situations means that a vast array of adaptation measures is required,
Did the discussion presented in the article show any benefits or harms?
the same discussion went on to point to some of the benefits of this feature of news production
Do the main news decision makers count on whom to bring a fair representation of the news?
however, the fact remains that key news decisionmakers rely on their correspondents to work with sources in such a way as to bring back a fair and balanced representation of "the news
Can they get in touch or almost never?
but they themselves rarely if ever gain direct contact themselves with diverse informed voices on an issue such as climate change
the same discussion went on to point to some of the benefits of this feature of news production: "[ok] there's nothing more conservative--in a very conservative bit of society that's the media--than the structure of the portfolios but also it's legitimate, to get one bit of the story from one specialist and another from another" (mp3, working group, risk, 2003). however, the fact remains that key news decisionmakers rely on their correspondents to work with sources in such a way as to bring back a fair and balanced representation of "the news," but they themselves rarely if ever gain direct contact themselves with diverse informed voices on an issue such as climate change.1
Which atmospheric model is a dynamic-statistical model?
the atmospheric model in climber-2
What happens when atmospheric CO2 concentration is enhanced in tropical Africa and the Sudan?
when atmospheric co2 concentration is enhanced, our model reveals an increase in precipitation in tropical africa and the sudan
What governs the paleo-monsoon system?
paleo-monsoon system are governed by the large-scale temperature contrast between the eurasian continent and the oceans
west africa can arise from vegetation-atmosphere interaction or from amplification of external forcing, such as changes in subtropical sea-surface temperatures, by vegetation-atmosphere interaction. the atmospheric model in climber-2 is a dynamic-statistical model which is not designed to simulate interannual variability. therefore, climber-2 is not the appropriate tool to explore interannual variability or to examine whether the observed variability in sahelian rainfall relates to internal, natural variability or to external, for example anthropogenic, perturbation. 6. conclusion our results indicate that the greening of the sahara several thousand years ago is not a paleo-analogue for potential future climate and vegetation changes in northern africa. paleoclimatic changes in the african monsoon were presumably triggered by changes in insolation and amplified by a positive, nonlinear feedback mainly between vegetation in northern africa, atmospheric motion and precipitation. when atmospheric co2 concentration is enhanced, our model reveals an increase in precipitation in tropical africa and the sudan, if the atmospheric co2 concentration increases are well above levels for pre-industrial climate - in agreement with results from some comprehensive climate models. this change is also amplified by the biogeophysical feedback. both the rate and the amplitude of saharan vegetation changes depend on the rate and the upper limit of the increase in atmospheric co2 concentrations. intrusion of vegetation into the sahara can, in principle, occur within a few decades. despite the apparent similarity, the increase in vegetation coverage in northern africa as a result of an increase in atmospheric co2 concentrations is quantitatively and mechanistically different from the vegetation change owing to insolation changes during the holocene. as a result of differences in forcing - in the one case, a seasonal and regional change of insolation pattern and in the other case, a globally homogeneous increase in the greenhouse gas co2 - global patterns of changes in near-surface temperature and precipitation differ. also the contribution of dynamic effects (stronger convergence and hence, stronger convective flow) and thermodynamic effects (increase in precipitable water owing to stronger evaporation) to changes in the monsoon are different in the holocene experiment and the co2 sensitivity experiments. moreover, comparison of transient monsoon changes suggests that changes in the paleo-monsoon system are governed by the large-scale temperature contrast between the eurasian continent and the oceans, and hence by changes in tropical air flow, and only to a lesser extent by the regional temperature gradient between northern africa and tropical north atlantic. in the co2 sensitivity experiments, the effect of transient changes in regional temperature gradients is more apparent. finally, we would like to emphasize that owing to several limitations of our model (coarse resolution, lack of realistic interannual climate variability), our study
Who felt that the US position was an example of the North 'not clearing up its waste'?
many journalists--particularly more junior reporters--felt that the us position was an example of the north 'not clearing up its waste
Who framed the developing world in a manner that supported the wider discourse?
as well as creating a clear image of the developed world, the english-language press also framed the developing world in a manner that supported the wider discourse
What extended the international division of risk and responsibility to a global North-South divide that grouped India with other developing nations?
this frame of southern cohesion or uniformity in both the impacts and policies of climate change extended the international division of risk and responsibility to a global north-south divide that grouped india with other developing nations
'developed states block action' (i10, table 2 ). many journalists--particularly more junior reporters--felt that the us position was an example of the north 'not clearing up its waste'. as well as creating a clear image of the developed world, the english-language press also framed the developing world in a manner that supported the wider discourse. 101 articles (75.9% of those discussing international attitudes) were empathetic towards the situation in other emerging and developing economies. the press framed these countries as being in a similar position to india on climate change, with two more extreme articles arguing that climate change facilitated a form of 'imperialism' that 'pitted india, china, and pakistan against the developed world' the hindu 9.v.2007; times of india 20.iv.2007). this frame of southern cohesion or uniformity in both the impacts and policies of climate change extended the international division of risk and responsibility to a global north-south divide that grouped india with other developing nations. one times of india reporter saw such reporting as representative of a 'larger sense of nationalism tied to [climate change]'. an aspect of this 'nationalism' was expressed through a defence of india and its position on the part of the journalists interviewed. the main environment writer at the indian express, for instance, argued that the developed world should not be allowed to 'dictate india's policy [on climate change] through lack of action'. anther interviewee, a free-lance writer, believed that 'india does not need to follow the european way or the american way. india will find its own way'.
What forms during late fall through early spring?
the polar vortex forms, creating a barrier to transport between the midand high latitudes
In what region is the vortex strongest?
particularly in the antarctic
Where is the surf zone?
particularly in the nh
trace gas composition in the extra-tropics is affected by many seasonally varying processes. at 70 hpa, the net vertical motion of the annually-averaged brewer-dobson circulation equatorward of 40deg is upward while poleward of 40deg it is downward (rosenlof, 1995). young air ascending in the tropics is exported to the mid-latitudes by extratropical planetary wave activity, which varies in strength with height and season. in summer, mixing between the midand high latitudes is weak because stirring by planetary wave activity is at a minimum. from late fall through early spring, the polar vortex forms, creating a barrier to transport between the midand high latitudes. inside the vortex there is strong, largely unmixed descent, particularly in the antarctic. in the mid-latitudes, meridional gradients are weak as a result of mixing by strong planetary wave activity (the 'surf zone'), particularly in the nh. the extra-tropical diagnostics presented here cannot isolate and evaluate the effects of a single process, rather, they evaluate the net effect of multiple transport processes. taken together, these diagnostics evaluate the integrated effects of transport on extra-tropical trace gas composition.
Have been significant changes in both the emissions and distribution of lightning
we find no global trend in lightning emissions, but significant changes in its distribution
Is it easy to identify the different components near-future changes to ozone
the magnitude of inter-annual variability in ozone is comparable to the changes brought about by emissions and climate changes between the 1990s and 2020s, suggesting that it will be difficult to disentangle the different components of near-future changes
Were both experiments conducted using a fixed climate?
two coupled climate-chemistry model experiments for the period 1990-2030 were conducted: one with a fixed climate and the other with a varying climate forced by the is92a scenario
two coupled climate-chemistry model experiments for the period 1990-2030 were conducted: one with a fixed climate and the other with a varying climate forced by the is92a scenario. by comparing results from these experiments we have attempted to identify changes and variations in physical climate that may have important influences upon tropospheric chemical composition. climate variables considered include: temperature, humidity, convective mass fluxes, precipitation, and the large-scale circulation. increases in humidity, directly related to increases in temperature, exert a major influence on the budgets of ozone and the hydroxyl radical: decreasing o3 and increasing oh. warming enhances decomposition of pan, releasing nox, and increases the rate of methane oxidation. surface warming enhances vegetation emissions of isoprene, an important ozone precursor. in the changed climate, tropical convection generally reduces, but penetrates to higher levels. over northern continents, convection tends to increase. these changes in convection affect both vertical mixing and lightning nox emissions. we find no global trend in lightning emissions, but significant changes in its distribution. changes in precipitation and the large-scale circulation are less important for composition, at least in these experiments. higher levels of the oxidants oh and h2o2 lead to increases in aerosol formation and concentrations. these results indicate that climate-chemistry feedbacks are dominantly negative (less o3, a shorter ch4 lifetime, and more aerosol). the major mode of inter-annual variability in the is92a climate experiment is enso. this strongly modulates isoprene emissions from vegetation via tropical land surface temperatures. enso is also clearly the dominant source of variability in tropical column ozone, mainly through changes in the distribution of convection. the magnitude of inter-annual variability in ozone is comparable to the changes brought about by emissions and climate changes between the 1990s and 2020s, suggesting that it will be difficult to disentangle the different components of near-future changes.
What are problems in education and public health services fundamental barriers to?
adaptation
In British Columbia, what do projected impacts include?
increased winter precipitation, more severe spring floods on the coast and the interior, and more summer droughts along the south coast and southern interior
In the Great Lakes, what are projected impacts associated with lower water levels likely to do?
exacerbate challenges relating to water quality, navigation, recreation, hydropower generation, water transfers and binational relationships
problems in education and public health services are fundamental barriers to adaptation; for example, in the case of extreme events (e.g., floods or droughts) mainly in poor rural areas (villagran de leon et al., 2003). [wgii 13.5] especially vulnerable, as are those systems that rely upon runoff from glaciers. [wgii 14.2, 15.2] in british columbia, projected impacts include increased winter precipitation, more severe spring floods on the coast and the interior, and more summer droughts along the south coast and southern interior, which would decrease streamflow in these areas and affect both fish survival and water supplies in the summer, when demand is the highest. in the great lakes, projected impacts associated with lower water levels are likely to exacerbate challenges relating to water quality, navigation, recreation, hydropower generation, water transfers and binational relationships. [wgii 14.2, 14.4] many, but not all, assessments project lower net basin supplies and water levels for the great lakes-st. lawrence basin. [wgii 14.es, 14.2]
What research did they review and evaluate?
unintended consequences of cooperative research
What does plethora of literature on the subject of university r industry cooperative research usually concludes with?
a critical opinion
How many studies exist on the subject of the university r industry cooperative research?
very few, if any, in-depth studies exist on the subject
thus, based on our review, we would have to agree with others who have evaluated the research on the unintended consequences of cooperative research: the issues have not gone away. a review of technology transfer outputs and outcomes, other than highlighting continuing and building university engagement, is not itself an examination of these concerns or of whether universities have learned how to correctly balance multiple objecz tives and commitments. feller, 1997; p. 56 despite the plethora of literature on the subject of university r industry cooperative research which usually concludes with a critical opinion, very few, if any, in-depth studies exist on the subject. z blevins and ewer, 1988; p. 655 4. recent discussions of unintended consequences not surprisingly, given the paucity of data available, the debate on the likelihood and significance of various unintended consequences of cooperative research has not subsided. for instance, a variety of observers continue to raise concerns about the impact of cooperative research on the university's core value structure, including universalism, communism z making knowledge freely available to all disinterz estedness and organized skepticism kenny, 1987 z and academic freedom slaughter, 1988 other concerns have also been raised including, potential decline in the amount of basic research performed z kenny, 1987; brooks, 1993 and the likelihood that z faculty will be lured away from academe kenny, 1987 this does not mean everyone agrees with these concerns. some contend a variety of factors, such as
Who supported BJH ?
bjh was supported by the natural environment research councils project testing and evaluating model predictions of european storms (tempest) during the course of this work
To whom the author wish to thank and why?
the authors wish to thank giuseppe zappa for help in obtaining the cmip5 data, and the two anonymous reviewers for their useful comments on the manuscript
What is responsible for CMIP?
in addition, we acknowledge the world climate research programme's working group on coupled modelling, which is responsible for cmip, and we thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output
bjh was supported by the natural environment research councils project testing and evaluating model predictions of european storms (tempest) during the course of this work. the authors wish to thank giuseppe zappa for help in obtaining the cmip5 data, and the two anonymous reviewers for their useful comments on the manuscript. in addition, we acknowledge the world climate research programme's working group on coupled modelling, which is responsible for cmip, and we thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output. for cmip the u.s. department of energy's program for climate model diagnosis and intercomparison provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the global organization for earth system science portals.
Where has the zooplanton research been taking place?
northern hemisphere temperate systems
What did the study of potential impacts of climate change on the tropical plankton community of the Great Barrier Reef, McKinnon et al (2007) conclude?
concluded that the effects of changes in nutrient enrichment processes in that region will outweigh changes in distribution and phenology
currently, we have far less understanding of how the phenology, distribution, community composition, and abundance of tropical pelagic systems will respond to climate change compared with their temperate counterparts. most zooplankton research has been in northern hemisphere temperate systems, where environmental conditions and populations undergo marked seasonality. for example, the latest ipcc report indicates that, of the 28 586 biological dataseries globally in terrestrial systems that have revealed a significant change consistent with global warming, only 39 come from areas outside europe and north america (ipcc, 2007b), highlighting the dearth of knowledge from tropical and southern hemispheric systems. although observed and projected warming is greatest towards the poles (ipcc, 2007a), there will still be substantial warming in equatorial regions (figure 8). in terms of zooplankton, only 4 of the 28 time-series  10 consecutive years) listed in perry et al (2004) are from tropical systems, and all of these are from upwelling areas. this situation is being redressed by amalgamating sampling programmes to form conglomerate time-series (piontkovski and castellani, 2007), and some existing programmes such as hots and bats are now  10 years long. in a study of potential impacts of climate change on the tropical plankton community of the great barrier reef, mckinnon et al (2007) concluded that the effects of changes in nutrient enrichment processes in that region will outweigh changes in distribution and phenology. certainly, phenology is likely to change less in relatively aseasonal tropical areas, where light is almost never limiting, compared with highly seasonal temperate and polar regions, where light is limiting in winter. in warm oligotrophic regions that dominate much of the world's oceans, small changes in nutrient enrichment will have profound implications for phytoand zooplankton communities.
How was the rainfall during 2000 and 2001?
neither 2000 nor 2001 were dry years. both years had around average rainfall (414 mm in 2000 and 453 mm in 2001
According to several informants from Karbaye, who opened fire?
farmers from karbaye
What has the large-scale expansions of rice fields led to?
a massive loss of pastoral land
many people from karbaye claim that it was the other way around. however, even several informants from karbaye admitted that it was farmers from karbaye who opened fire, but they were reluctant to talk about it, and they also claimed that they had no choice. the violent attack at karbaye occurred in august 2001. neither 2000 nor 2001 were dry years. both years had around average rainfall (414 mm in 2000 and 453 mm in 2001) and we have no other indication that anything but normal environmental conditions prevailed at the time violence broke out. thus, instead of interpreting this event as a classic scarcity-driven conflict, we argue that several dominant structural factors are essential in understanding this particular conflict - and numerous other low-intensity conflicts that occur in the delta. the first factor is the large-scale expansions of rice fields, which has led to a massive loss of pastoral land; the second is a political vacuum that prevailed following democratization and decentralization from 1991; and the third is corruption and rent-seeking by government officials.
What's likely to be needed to maximize societal welfare under a condition of climat risk?
maximizing societal welfare under future climate risk will likely involve a mix of both mitigation and adaptation
What's the role of the scientific community in the mitigation/adaptation public policy development?
effectively integrating mitigation impacts and adaptation to inform public policy development remains a significant challenge for the scientific community, although some studies are now emerging
importantly, identifying and evaluating possible adaptation strategies are of fundamental value to determine a set of dynamic climate policy options that lead to the ''avoidance of dangerous anthropogenic interference'' component (article 2) of the united nations framework convention on climate change (65). this is because maximizing societal welfare under future climate risk will likely involve a mix of both mitigation and adaptation; the percentage contribution of each strategy will depend on monetary and nonmonetary cost/benefit analyses. for example, we would expect the size and cost of the adaptation task to be lower if there is effective, but perhaps costly, mitigation and higher if there is no mitigation. similarly, the benefits of adaptation will be a function of the nature of climate change and the scale of impact. consequently, inadequate consideration of adaptation options could result in the vulnerability to climate change being significantly overstated, giving rise to more severe mitigation targets. additionally, mitigation policies can affect the range of adaptation options that practitioners have at their disposal (e.g., subsidizing biofuel production strongly influences the market for agricultural produce). another perspective is that implementing effective adaptation can ''buy time'' until an effective mitigation response can be mounted. hence adaptation analyses may be used to inform both the magnitude and timing of mitigation. achievement of this complex task of effectively integrating mitigation impacts and adaptation to inform public policy development remains a significant challenge for the scientific community, although some studies are now emerging (15). this interaction of science and policy needs to evolve as the scientific knowledge base changes and may also focus attention on the importance of integrative rather than disciplinary science within the science-policy interface (16).
What is Significant differences between (A)MSU and RO TLS ?
the anomaly difference trend values are summarized in table 2. significant differences between (a)msu and ro tls temperature anomaly time series were found (global trend of - 0.20 k to - 0.22 k per 10 years), with the starv2.0 record showing the largest trend difference
What is the conclusion of Steiner ?
the conclusion of steiner et al. [2007] remains still valid, also based on the extended data set used here, that further understanding and reconciliation of anomaly differences is needed
How does ence. Overall the trend differences varying?
overall the trend differences are smaller compared to steiner et al. [2007], since the time series is longer and the negative trend tendency of the (a)msu record ceased to continue in 2006. the conclusion of steiner et al. [2007] remains still valid, also based on the extended data set used here, that further understanding and reconciliation of anomaly differences is needed
hemisphere extratropics), with the minor exception of rich in the tropics and northern hemisphere extratropics. the anomaly difference trend values are summarized in table 2. significant differences between (a)msu and ro tls temperature anomaly time series were found (global trend of - 0.20 k to - 0.22 k per 10 years), with the starv2.0 record showing the largest trend difference. overall the trend differences are smaller compared to steiner et al. [2007], since the time series is longer and the negative trend tendency of the (a)msu record ceased to continue in 2006. the conclusion of steiner et al. [2007] remains still valid, also based on the extended data set used here, that further understanding and reconciliation of anomaly differences is needed.
What are disease management strategies?
disease management strategies are influenced by climate conditions. because of the limited information about the impact of climate change on tropical and plantation crop diseases, pests and weeds, it is difficult to predict the effects on integrated pest management. certainly, quarantine measures to control emerging pathogens, for example, will be very important in order to prevent the spread of the pathogens into new areas, because of the alterations in disease geographical and temporal distribution resulting from climate change
Describe soil-borne pathogens?
according to coakley scherm (1996), soilborne pathogens will remain more difficult to control than foliar pathogens because of fewer management options. once the soil is infested, some pathogens can survive for years, even in the absence of a susceptible host. therefore, quarantine measures and exclusion will continue to play an important role in controlling these diseases
Describe the statement issued by Jisca Coins?
ziska goins (2006), who concluded that depending on weed species (c3 or c4 metabolism), elevated co2 concentration can increase weed biomass, decrease yields, and reduce glyphosate herbicide efficacy for roundup ready soybean. changes in temperature and precipitation can alter fungicide residue dynamics in foliage, and product degradation can be modified (coakley et al. 1999
disease management strategies are influenced by climate conditions. because of the limited information about the impact of climate change on tropical and plantation crop diseases, pests and weeds, it is difficult to predict the effects on integrated pest management. certainly, quarantine measures to control emerging pathogens, for example, will be very important in order to prevent the spread of the pathogens into new areas, because of the alterations in disease geographical and temporal distribution resulting from climate change. according to coakley scherm (1996), soilborne pathogens will remain more difficult to control than foliar pathogens because of fewer management options. once the soil is infested, some pathogens can survive for years, even in the absence of a susceptible host. therefore, quarantine measures and exclusion will continue to play an important role in controlling these diseases. there have been few discussions on how chemical control will be affected by climate change, despite the importance of this subject. one of the few papers on this subject was published by ziska goins (2006), who concluded that depending on weed species (c3 or c4 metabolism), elevated co2 concentration can increase weed biomass, decrease yields, and reduce glyphosate herbicide efficacy for roundup ready soybean. changes in temperature and precipitation can alter fungicide residue dynamics in foliage, and product degradation can be modified (coakley et al. 1999). alterations in plant morphology or physiology, resulting from growth in a co2-enriched atmosphere or from different temperature and precipitation conditions, can affect the penetration, translocation and mode of action of systemic fungicides, as demonstrated by edis et al. (1996) for the herbicide chlorotoluron. besides, changes in plant growth can alter the period of higher susceptibility to pathogens, which can determine a new fungicide application calendar (coakley
how much is the fraction of people in urban areas expected to grow by 2050?
as the fraction of people living in urban areas is expected to grow up to almost 70% by 2050, the energy consumption in cities is likely to follow that trend
What do buildings in urban areas experience that isolated buildings do not?
as compared to an isolated building, a building in an urban area experiences: (i) increased maximum air temperatures due to the urban heat island effect; (ii) lower wind speeds due to a wind-sheltering effect; (iii) reduced energy losses during the night due to reduced sky view factors; (iv) altered solar heat gains due to shadowing and reflections; (v) a modified radiation balance due to the interaction with neighbouring buildings
What major issues will urban planners and stakeholders face in the next decade?
during the next decades, urban planners and stakeholders will have to face major issues in terms of energy, traffic and resource flows
as the fraction of people living in urban areas is expected to grow up to almost 70% by 2050, the energy consumption in cities is likely to follow that trend. during the next decades, urban planners and stakeholders will have to face major issues in terms of energy, traffic and resource flows. their main concern will certainly be to find adequate ways of planning sustainable energy generation, distribution and storage, but also to increase energy efficiency and to reduce the dependency on non-renewable energies. minimising the energy demand of buildings in urban areas has a great energy-saving potential santamouris, 2001 ). the energy demand of a building in an urban area does not only depend on the characteristics of the building itself. urban heat island effects at mesoand micro-scale as well as interactions with the surrounding buildings at local scale do have an important effect on the energy demand of a building in an urban area rasheed, 2009 ). as compared to an isolated building, a building in an urban area experiences: (i) increased maximum air temperatures due to the urban heat island effect; (ii) lower wind speeds due to a wind-sheltering effect; (iii) reduced energy losses during the night due to reduced sky view factors; (iv) altered solar heat gains due to shadowing and reflections; (v) a modified radiation balance due to the interaction with neighbouring buildings. all these effects have a significant impact on the energy demand of buildings kolokotroni et al., 2006 ), since it affects the conductive heat transport through the building envelope, as well as the energy exchange by means of ventilation ghiaus et al., 2006 ), and the potential to employ passive cooling geros et al., 2005 and renewable energy resources.
What diseases does fungus Puccinia graminis cause?
water stem, black or cereal rusts are an increasing concern for wheat growers globally. these diseases are caused by the fungus puccinia graminis and infestation by this pathogen can result in significant loss of wheat yield
Across which parts of the world does an epidemic of stem rust associated with a new wheat strain (UG 99) spread currently?
an epidemic of stem rust associated with a new wheat strain (ug 99) is currently spreading across africa, asia and the middle east, provoking extensive concern
When does the damage caused by the disease becomes greatest?
damage is greatest when the disease becomes severe before the grain is completely formed
water stem, black or cereal rusts are an increasing concern for wheat growers globally. these diseases are caused by the fungus puccinia graminis and infestation by this pathogen can result in significant loss of wheat yield. an epidemic of stem rust associated with a new wheat strain (ug 99) is currently spreading across africa, asia and the middle east, provoking extensive concern. losses are often severe (50% to 70%) over a large area and individual fields can be totally destroyed. damage is greatest when the disease becomes severe before the grain is completely formed. in areas favorable for disease development, susceptible cultivars cannot be grown. the grain is shriveled due to the damage to the conducting tissue, resulting in fewer nutrients being transported to the grain. with respect to climate it is important to note that in addition to wind, urediniospores and aeciospores (such as stem rust) germinate when in contact with free water (wanyera et al. 2006 ). consequently, rain is necessary for effective deposition of spores in regional spore transport. a number of climatic models project increased precipitation and an increased frequency of extreme precipitation events in a number of areas where wheat is grown (fig. 2 (rosenzweig et al. 2002 ). such increases in precipitation and a wetter environment are likely to contribute to the success of stem rust establishment since many fungi require free water not only for deposition but also for spore germination. conversely, droughts could result in less pathogen spread, but would present their own problems with respect to crop yield.
What is the future period being investigated?
the influence of climate change on river discharges in five major danish rivers divided into 29 sub-catchments is investigated for the future period of 2071-2100
What was the percentage increase of the mean annual precipitation?
mean annual precipitation is found to increase 7
What percentage is the 100-year flood modelled to increase?
the 100-year flood is modelled to increase 11% on average
summary the influence of climate change on river discharges in five major danish rivers divided into 29 sub-catchments is investigated for the future period of 2071-2100. climate changes are modelled by the hirham regional climate model on the basis of the ipcc a2 scenario. a hydrological model (nam) is used to convert precipitation to river discharges. difficulties are found in the direct use of climate model generated precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (reference evaporation) because of too many rainy days, deviations from mean annual values of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration from observed values, and poor agreement on seasonality. therefore climate model generated data is corrected to match observed mean annual values and the mean monthly distribution. mean annual precipitation is found to increase 7%, potential evapotranspiration to increase 3% and river discharges to increase 12% on average, between a control period (1961-1990) and the future period. because of increased precipitation from october to march and reduced precipitation from july to september the monthly river discharges are found to increase from december to august and decrease in september and october. extreme values of precipitation and river discharge are examined and the level of the highest precipitation and the highest river discharge events are estimated to increase. the precipitation amount exceeded 0.1% of all days increases by an average of 7%, the river discharge exceeded 0.1% of all days increases approximately 15%. the 100-year flood is modelled to increase 11% on average. a 2006 elsevier b.v. all rights reserved.
What does surplus production indicate?
surplus production is an indicator of both total stock size and environmental conditions, which either promote or retard individual growth and survival
What is the trend in Pst from 1980?
the trend from 1980 has generally been an increase in pst
What doest PNt indicate?
net production is an indicator of fishing levels under the prevailing stock productivity regime, where negative values indicate a trajectory toward stock decline and positive values the potential for stock increase
the main impact on bs cod productivity was generally expected to be fishing, although the environment was also suspected to have had an impact (25). surplus production is an indicator of both total stock size and environmental conditions, which either promote or retard individual growth and survival. productivity of bs cod indicated cyclic patterns in the surplus production pst), partially mirroring trends in stock biomass, with the main peaks appearing in the early 1950s, late 1960s, and in recent years (figs. 1 b and 2 a and b ). the trend from 1980 has generally been an increase in pst. the effect of the fishery is seen in the net production pnt). net production is an indicator of fishing levels under the prevailing stock productivity regime, where negative values indicate a trajectory toward stock decline and positive values the potential for stock increase. pnt was positive after the late 1990s but was negative for a number of years in the
In which part of the globe wars occued in 20 th Century?
the bloodiest wars in the second half of the 20th century occurred in east and southeast asia
Why do climate related conflicts arise in Africa?
climate-related conflicts as more likely to arise in africa because of that continent's heavy dependence on rainfed agriculture
What is the suggested topic for future research?
but in view of the public concern about the effects of sea-level rise and the melting of the himalayan glaciers, the impact of climate change for conflict in asia also seems like a worthwhile topic for future research
there is indeed a focus on the developing world. apart from the articles with a global scope, there is a strong concentration on africa, particularly south of the sahara, while one article deals with the middle east and another with central asia. the bloodiest wars in the second half of the 20th century occurred in east and southeast asia, but by the turn of the century there were fewer conflicts in these areas and those that remained were at much lower levels of severity. the scholarly community may have seen climate-related conflicts as more likely to arise in africa because of that continent's heavy dependence on rainfed agriculture. but in view of the public concern about the effects of sea-level rise and the melting of the himalayan glaciers, the impact of climate change for conflict in asia also seems like a worthwhile topic for future research.
How we calculated the maximum number of daylight hours for each month and an annual?
we calculated the maximum number of daylight hours for each month and an annual mean using tables provided by the us navy (http://aa.usno.navy. mul/data/docs/dur_oneyear.html
The dataset describing maximum lake surface-water temperatures was pruned to reduce some inherent sampling biases,how?
firstly, only water temperatures measured in june to mid-september sampled after 1960 were retained for the analyses. we reduced the ontario and nova scotia datasets (these were substantially larger than all other provincial datasets) by only retaining lakes that had temperature values for july and august. in addition, lakes in ontario and nova scotia were randomly subsampled, while stratifying for geography and lake morphology. our decision to reduce the sample sizes from these provinces was to ensure that our models more accurately reflected relationships across the country rather than being dominated by a regional effect because of sample-size differences
This dataset was randomly divided into two subsets, which are they?
this dataset was randomly divided into two subsets while maintaining geographical and lake morphology gradients: a training dataset of 1726 lakes and an independent validation dataset of 985 lakes resulted
ipcc data distribution centre as 1961-1990 averages. the data were interpolated from meteorological stations using thin-plate splines and summarized on a 0.5  0.5 1 grid. the climatic variables we included were mean annual air temperature, mean july air temperature, mean august air temperature, monthly and mean annual precipitation, monthly and mean annual solar radiation, and monthly and mean annual cloud cover percent. we calculated the maximum number of daylight hours for each month and an annual mean using tables provided by the us navy (http://aa.usno.navy. mul/data/docs/dur_oneyear.html). the dataset describing maximum lake surface-water temperatures was pruned to reduce some inherent sampling biases. firstly, only water temperatures measured in june to mid-september sampled after 1960 were retained for the analyses. we reduced the ontario and nova scotia datasets (these were substantially larger than all other provincial datasets) by only retaining lakes that had temperature values for july and august. in addition, lakes in ontario and nova scotia were randomly subsampled, while stratifying for geography and lake morphology. our decision to reduce the sample sizes from these provinces was to ensure that our models more accurately reflected relationships across the country rather than being dominated by a regional effect because of sample-size differences. following the pruning, 2711 lakes remained in the dataset (table 1). this dataset was randomly divided into two subsets while maintaining geographical and lake morphology gradients: a training dataset of 1726 lakes and an independent validation dataset of 985 lakes resulted.
It remains uncertain whether tree mortality across drought-stricken landscapes will be concentrated in which environments?
it remains uncertain, however, whether tree mortality across drought-stricken landscapes will be concentrated in particular climatic and competitive environments
The investigation used California forest aerial mortality surveys conducted in which years of extreme drought?
using extensive aerial mortality surveys conducted throughout the forests of california during a 4-year statewide extreme drought lasting from 2012 to 2015
In which areas did mortality rates increased disproportionately?
they increased disproportionately in areas that were both dry and dense
rising temperatures are amplifying drought-induced stress and mortality in forests globally. it remains uncertain, however, whether tree mortality across drought-stricken landscapes will be concentrated in particular climatic and competitive environments. we investigated the effects of long-term average climate [i.e. 35-year mean annual climatic water deficit (cwd)] and competition (i.e. tree basal area) on tree mortality patterns, using extensive aerial mortality surveys conducted throughout the forests of california during a 4-year statewide extreme drought lasting from 2012 to 2015. during this period, tree mortality increased by an order of magnitude, typically from tens to hundreds of dead trees per km2, rising dramatically during the fourth year of drought. mortality rates increased independently with average cwd and with basal area, and they increased disproportionately in areas that were both dry and dense. these results can assist forest managers and policy-makers in identifying the most drought-vulnerable forests across broad geographic areas. keywords california, climate, climatic water deficit, competition, drought, forest, mortality, stress, tree.
how many traditional decision?
484
making approaches lead to what?
specific actions that ought to be 485 implemented based on decision criteria founded in rationality
the set of processes intended to create what?
the conditions for the production and 489 appropriate use of decision---relevant information
it should be noted 484 that traditional decision---making approaches lead to specific actions that ought to be 485 implemented based on decision criteria founded in rationality (e.g. highest positive npv) 486 whereas some of the robust decision---making approaches provide decision support instead 487 (lempert, 2014) using the definition from the national research council (2009), this 488 represents "the set of processes intended to create the conditions for the production and 489 appropriate use of decision---relevant information." in particular rdm but also pa focus on 490 the goal of providing actionable information to decision makers, who will then make their 491 own decisions (e.g. trade---offs between options). 492
Explain about ow-dimensional model of general circulation ?
received 17 october 2001 published 5 june 2002 online at stacks.iop.org/non/15/1205 recommended by m viana a low-dimensional model of general circulation of the atmosphere is investigated
Define three-dimensional Poincar'e mapping ?
a three-dimensional poincar'e mapping p depends on three control parameters f, g, and [?] the latter being the relative amplitude of the oscillating part of the forcing
Why Lorenz-84 system Weather and climate prediction are difficult tasks?
the driven lorenz-84 system weather and climate prediction are difficult tasks, because of the complexity of the atmospheric evolution. nowadays computer models used for these predictions usually contain a high number of variables and parameters
received 17 october 2001 published 5 june 2002 online at stacks.iop.org/non/15/1205 recommended by m viana a low-dimensional model of general circulation of the atmosphere is investigated. the differential equations are subject to periodic forcing, where the period is one year. a three-dimensional poincar'e mapping p depends on three control parameters f, g, and [?] the latter being the relative amplitude of the oscillating part of the forcing. this paper provides a coherent inventory of the phenomenology of pf,g,[?]. for [?] small, a hopf-saddle-node bifurcation hsn of fixed points and quasi-periodic hopf bifurcations of invariant circles occur, persisting from the autonomous case [?] 0. for [?] 0 5, the above bifurcations have disappeared. different types of strange attractors are found in four regions (chaotic ranges) in f, g and the related routes to chaos are discussed. mathematics subject classification: 37d45, 37g35 1. 1.1. the driven lorenz-84 system weather and climate prediction are difficult tasks, because of the complexity of the atmospheric evolution. nowadays computer models used for these predictions usually contain a high number of variables and parameters. therefore, it is practically impossible to perform detailed studies of their dynamical properties. on the other hand, there is experimental evidence that low-dimensional attractors appear in some hydrodynamical flows just after the onset of turbulence. as a consequence, low-dimensional models have attracted the attention of meteorologists, mathematicians and physicists over the last decades. these models are easier to study than the infinite-dimensional navier-stokes equations, or than large computer models.
What is the largest global source of methane and nitrous oxide?
livestock production is the largest global source of methane (ch4) and nitrous oxide (n2o
What is the biggest source of CH4?
the biggest source of ch4 is from enteric fermentation
What is the definition of enteric fermentation?
he biggest source of ch4 is from enteric fermentation - a digestive process of ruminant livestock such as cattle, goats and sheep
livestock production is the largest global source of methane (ch4) and nitrous oxide (n2o) - two particularly potent ghgs.5 the principal sources of n2o are manure and fertilizers used in the production of feed (see figure 4). the biggest source of ch4 is from enteric fermentation - a digestive process of ruminant livestock such as cattle, goats and sheep. rising demand for livestock products therefore translates into rising emissions of ch4 and n2o. according to one study, if current dietary trends (increasing global consumption of animal products) were to continue, emissions of ch4 and n2o would more than double by 2055 from 1995 levels.6
What scientific topic did Senator Jim Inhofe discuss in his speech to the Senate?
for example, senator jim inhofe asserted in a speech to the senate that, "statements made by the national academy of sciences (nas) cannot possibly be considered unequivocal affirmations that man-made global warming is a threat
In this passage, what was the problem with the word "considerable"?
using the word considerable to describe uncertainty creates a disparity in meaning between common language and science. what quantity is "considerable"? this word is subject to varying interpretations
According to the author, what should scientists do when they discuss uncertainty?
most critically, communicators should suggest neither more, nor less scientific certainty about climate change than actually exists. when significant uncertainty remains about a specific effect, they should explain why that uncertainty exists (e.g., the systems involved are so complex that science has yet to understand them sufficiently
jargon filled explanations of uncertainty can easily undermine a scientist's message. for example, senator jim inhofe asserted in a speech to the senate that, "statements made by the national academy of sciences (nas) cannot possibly be considered unequivocal affirmations that man-made global warming is a threat."47 as evidence, he quoted the national academy of sciences 2001 report, dwelling on such phrases as "considerable uncertainty in current understanding," "estimates should be regarded as tentative and subject to future adjustments," "because of the large and still uncertain level of natural variability," "uncertainties in the time histories of various forcing agents," "cannot be unequivocally established." such phrases can easily translate as unreliable climate science to the greater public. using the word considerable to describe uncertainty creates a disparity in meaning between common language and science. what quantity is "considerable"? this word is subject to varying interpretations. similarly, the word error means mistake to most people, which is wholly different from the scientific definition of "error." discussing uncertainty with unspecific language can lead to an unintentional overstatement and consequent criticisms. most critically, communicators should suggest neither more, nor less scientific certainty about climate change than actually exists. when significant uncertainty remains about a specific effect, they should explain why that uncertainty exists (e.g., the systems involved are so complex that science has yet to understand them sufficiently).
Wat is mortality discriminated by?
forest type
What is the R2 value for the linear regression model fitted to the data?
r2= 0.61
How many groups are the forests grouped into?
four major biomes
fig. 10. differences between observed and expected frequencies of reported forest mortality cases listed in tables a1-a6 sorted by duration of associated drought events (seasonal vs. multi-year), with forests grouped into four major biomes. mortality discriminated by forest type is dependent on drought duration, with more drought-adapted forest types showing mortality during long droughts and less drought-adapted forest types showing more mortality cases during short-term seasonal droughts. pearson chisquare 23.46, df 3, p 0.000012. fig. 9. isi web of science search of the trend in published reports of climate-related forest mortality in the scientific literature, for the years 1985-2009. plotted bars show the percent of references using the topic words ''forest and mortality and drought'', relative to all ''forest'' references. line represents the linear regression model fitted to the data r2= 0.61; f 35.73; p 0.001). c.d. allen et al. forest ecology and management xxx (2009) xxx-xxx 8
They calculated pearsons correlations between what ?
between temp and prec
What is the SD measures as ?
the standard deviation in the relative yield anomaly per year of all farm types in a region
How are yield anomalies calculated ?
from the actual yield y related to the average of the study period
the specialization dimension is based on the eu/fadn farm typology http://ec.europa.eu/comm/agri culture/rica/diffusion_en.cfm ). only the most important land-use type rules are described here; the of area relates to the utilized agricultural area (uaa). a full description is given in andersen et al. (2006). ewert et al. 2005, reidsma 2007). we tested for stationarity along the trend; stationarity exists if the mean and variance of the error terms (i.e., the anomalies) are constant. although not always significant, trends are calculated for all regions. the absolute anomaly from the trend expressed in tons/ ha is used in the present analysis. regional effects of interannual climate variability on wheat yields are measured by the pearson correlation coefficient r between wheat yield anomalies from a linear trend and temp r(yield, temp) and prec r(yield,prec) ]. the start and length of the growing season differ depending on the region, and result in regional differences for the months that are most important for wheat growth. therefore, we also calculated pearson correlations between wheat yield anomalies and average temperatures and precipitations for the six individual months from march to august (i.e., 12 correlations per region). furthermore, we calculated pearson correlations between temp and prec and simulated water limited ywat and potential ypot yields from the crop growth monitoring system (based on wofost; lazar and genovese 2004, reidsma 2007). these correlations indicate the potential impact of temp and prec on wheat growth, without considering management and adaptation. comparing these simulations with the results from the farm survey analysis should further clarify the importance of management and adaptation for explaining regional differences in yield responses to climate variability. as r(yield,prec) is not significant in any of the regions, and calculations based on individual months are similar to r(yield,temp) (results section), further analysis focuses mainly on r(yield, temp) for which results are especially interesting. measures of regional farm diversity in this paper, regional farm diversity is considered by two measures. the first measure represents the diversity in the yield responses of farm types in a region. the variation in farm type yield variability (sd) indicates, for a region, the variation among farm types in their interannual yield variability. if yields of different farm types increase and decrease in the same years, sd is low; if farm types show different yield responses, sd is large. a low variation suggests a low diversity in management practices, whereas a larger variation suggests greater diversity in management practices. the sd is measured as the standard deviation in the relative yield anomaly per year of all farm types in a region, averaged over the study period (1990-2003) as (1) where sd is the standard deviation of relative yield anomalies ya,i) of farm types i i =1,2,...f per year t t =1,2,...n). yield anomalies per farm type and year are calculated from the actual yield y related to the average of the study period. no trend is considered at farm type level as few trends are significant and trends can be distorted by missing years (reidsma 2007). relative yield anomalies are
Does climate change affect re immergence of diseases in different parts of the world?
climate warming also causes a shift in regions where diseases can survive. italy, a country that was declared malaria free in 1970, now sees numerous cases every year. tick-borne encephalitis, visceral leishmaniasis carried by sandflies and potentially fatal, and other diseases are being reported as southern italy in particular dries out
Does globalization, ease of connectivity affect the spread of localized infections to the rest of the world?
concerns increase with climate change, increasing travel and the growth of densely populated cities about the rate of spread of a host of diseases, including tuberculosis, severe acute respiratory syndrome (sars), ebola, west nile virus, malaria, plague, cholera, yellow fever, bird flu or influenza h5n1, weil's disease, equine encephalitis, escherichia coli 157, lyme disease, cryptosporidium lassa fever and rift valley fever
climate warming also causes a shift in regions where diseases can survive. italy, a country that was declared malaria free in 1970, now sees numerous cases every year. tick-borne encephalitis, visceral leishmaniasis carried by sandflies and potentially fatal, and other diseases are being reported as southern italy in particular dries out. concerns increase with climate change, increasing travel and the growth of densely populated cities about the rate of spread of a host of diseases, including tuberculosis, severe acute respiratory syndrome (sars), ebola, west nile virus, malaria, plague, cholera, yellow fever, bird flu or influenza h5n1, weil's disease, equine encephalitis, escherichia coli 157, lyme disease, cryptosporidium lassa fever and rift valley fever.
What do the XBT measurements also support?
xbt measurements of mixed layer temperature (figs. 4 and 12) also support a reduced sst gradient over the equatorial indo-pacific
What Do Both NMAT Reconstructions from ICOADS and MOHMAT Show?
both nmat reconstructions from icoads and mohmat exhibit generally consistent trend patterns with those in the bucket-sampled ssts, showing enhanced warming over the eastern tropical pacific and western to central tropical indian ocean and reduced warming over the maritime continent
ocean. this acts to reduce the zonal temperature gradient of the tropical indian and pacific oceans and is therefore more consistent with the weakened walker circulation over the tropical indo-pacific. both nmat reconstructions from icoads and mohmat exhibit generally consistent trend patterns with those in the bucket-sampled ssts, showing enhanced warming over the eastern tropical pacific and western to central tropical indian ocean and reduced warming over the maritime continent (figs. 16e,f). to the extent that marine air temperature follows sst by surface heat exchange, the agreement in warming pattern between nmat and bucket-sampled sst provides support for the reduced zonal thermal contrast across the tropical indo-pacific oceans. xbt measurements of mixed layer temperature (figs. 4 and 12) also support a reduced sst gradient over the equatorial indo-pacific.
How many years was the running average to mark the point at which the mature phase beings?
the 9-year running average to mark the point at which the mature phase begins at each site in our study
What type pf data was being measured?
mature bai data were analysed from the following year to avoid this peak biasing growth trends
What was used to conduct a regression analysis?
regression analysis was conducted using sigmaplot 2002 v8.0 (spss inc., chicago, il, usa
mean bai chronologies for each site were smoothed by the application of a 9-year running average to highlight growth trends while retaining their variability. we used the postrelease inflection point of the 9-year running average to mark the point at which the mature phase begins at each site in our study (fig. 3). individual chronologies were visually assessed to ensure that individual trees had reached mature bai levels by the year indicated by the inflection point of the mean chronology for each site. as the inflection point corresponded to a peak of growth, mature bai data were analysed from the following year to avoid this peak biasing growth trends away from the null expectation of non-negative mature growth. all statistical analyses use single-year mature bai data for each site and not smoothed data. regression analysis was conducted using sigmaplot 2002 v8.0 (spss inc., chicago, il, usa). all other statistical tests were performed using spss for mac v11.0.2 (spss inc.). the earlier onset of the mature phase
What was revealed by the research in the Lakhwar and Chhotau villages?
revealed that current coping capacity of people in the region to climate variability and water stress is quite low
What do families depend on to survive?
households are considerably dependent on low-value rainfed agriculture
the survey in lakhwar and chhotau villages revealed that current coping capacity of people in the region to climate variability and water stress is quite low. households are considerably dependent on low-value rainfed agriculture. institutional capacity is also poor, particularly in terms of connectivity and the availability of formal credit, which constrains their ability to use their agricultural skills and assets more effectively. they also have limited human resources in terms of formal education or vocational skills, which limits their options in seeking off-farm employment opportunities. the types of responses to poor rainfall reported by households are only temporary coping measures, some of which, like selling assets or taking loans from traditional moneylenders, may actually increase their vulnerability over time by worsening impoverishment or indebtedness. as they move towards nonagricultural jobs in the city, they appear to be making a more lasting adaptation to climate stresses, but in so doing many are becoming more vulnerable due to dislocation and disruption of their familiar way of life. in general, the richer and more detailed scenario discussions in lakhwar reflect the higher education levels and relatively more comfortable economic status of this community. both villages, however, were similar in their belief that agriculture in its present form is simply not a viable livelihood for future generations. there was concern about unemployment (''crime will rise and we will get the same atmosphere as in the plains''), and the discussions focused less on interventions related to water resources and more on alternative livelihood opportunities. there was a sense that one cannot go back to the old way of life due to changing economic structures, tastes, and aspirations. many of the desired interventions are highly ambitious and require not just technical inputs but demand surveys and a reliable raw material sourcing and marketing chain. however, water harvesting interventions are clearly feasible, and are being promoted by the government of uttarakhand, albeit in a topdown manner without always understanding the ground situation. one of the success stories reported by the watershed
Which kind of leisure environment is more responsive?
consistent with expectations, we find outdoor and indoor leisure more responsive to temperature changes, particularly at hotter temperatures
Why we see no net effect on time allocated to labor from higher temperatures?
the high fraction of workers in these industries explains why we see no net effect on time allocated to labor from higher temperatures
At what temperature level there is a significant decrease in outdoor leisure?
daily maximum temperatures over 100@f lead to a statistically significant decrease in outdoor leisure of 22 minutes compared to 76@f - 80@f
in figure 4, we focus on time allocations for those in low-risk industries. for time allocated to labor, we again see little response to colder temperature. while we see a decrease in time allocated to labor at daily maximum temperatures above 95@f, this effect is modest and not statistically significant. the high fraction of workers in these industries explains why we see no net effect on time allocated to labor from higher temperatures. in terms of leisure activities, we see comparable responses as above for colder temperatures but more muted responses at hotter temperatures, which is consistent with the smaller labor response for this group. in figure 5, we present results for those not employed. consistent with expectations, we find outdoor and indoor leisure more responsive to temperature changes, particularly at hotter temperatures. outdoor leisure begins decreasing at lower temperatures when compared to employed individuals, with declines beginning around 90@f. furthermore, the impacts at higher temperatures are larger and statistically significant. daily maximum temperatures over 100@f lead to a statistically significant decrease in outdoor leisure of 22 minutes compared to 76@f - 80@f. consistent with desche^nes and greenstone d 2011 th such responses at high temperatures are
What does MAP mean?
mean annual precipitation (map
What are the dark gray areas for?
where p 0.5 in both current and future models
What were the models fitted to use?
models were fitted using downscaled grids of mean annual precipitation (map), growing degree days above 5 degrees (gdd5), and temperature seasonality t seas) for the period 1971-2000
fig. 4 maps of climate-based species distribution models fitted using maxent and parameterized using locality data from each of four circled areas. models were fitted using downscaled grids of mean annual precipitation (map), growing degree days above 5 degrees (gdd5), and temperature seasonality t seas) for the period 1971-2000. black areas have probability of occurrence values exceeding 0.5. gray areas are extrapolated distributions p 0.5) based on the same regional climate model but using climate forecasts based on gfdl-a2 (a, c, e, g) and pcm-a2 (b, d, f, h) models for the period 2071-2100. dark gray areas are where p 0.5 in both current and future models.
What the figure shows?
the figure shows critical adaptation points highlighted in light grey color and key constraints (dark grey color) affecting successful crop and or livestock production in the face of changing climatic conditions
What could be the adaption measures applied?
adaptation measures can be supply-side measures (such as providing more water), demandside measures (such as reuse of water) and combinations of both (such as changing crop varieties
What are the expectations about this labor?
the expectation is that farm households with more labor are better able to take on various adaptation management practices in response to changes in climatic conditions compared to those with limited labor
the figure shows critical adaptation points highlighted in light grey color and key constraints (dark grey color) affecting successful crop and or livestock production in the face of changing climatic conditions. adaptation measures can be supply-side measures (such as providing more water), demandside measures (such as reuse of water) and combinations of both (such as changing crop varieties). while some measures may be taken at the individual or farm level, others require collective action (rainwater harvesting) or investments at the agency or government level (for example, building dams, releasing new cultivars that are more water efficient) (jawahar and msangi 2006). resource limitations and poor infrastructure limit the ability of most rural farmers to take up adaptation measures in response to changes in climatic conditions. with resource limitations, farmers fail to meet transaction costs necessary to acquire adaptation measures and at times farmers cannot make beneficial use of the available information they might have (kandlinkar and risbey 2000). labor availability is considered an important input constraint. the expectation is that farm households with more labor are better able to take on various adaptation management practices in response to changes in climatic conditions compared to those with limited labor. education and health are important factors that
What does an increasing number of short-term experimental studies show?
an increasing number of short-term experimental studies show significant effects of projected ocean warming and ocean acidification on the performance on marine organisms
What remains unclear in the studies?
yet, it remains unclear if we can reliably predict the impact of climate change on marine populations and ecosystems, because we lack sufficient understanding of the capacity for marine organisms to adapt to rapid climate change
What is emphasized in the present review?
in this review, we emphasise why an evolutionary perspective is crucial to understanding climate change impacts in the sea and examine the approaches that may be useful for addressing this challenge
an increasing number of short-term experimental studies show significant effects of projected ocean warming and ocean acidification on the performance on marine organisms. yet, it remains unclear if we can reliably predict the impact of climate change on marine populations and ecosystems, because we lack sufficient understanding of the capacity for marine organisms to adapt to rapid climate change. in this review, we emphasise why an evolutionary perspective is crucial to understanding climate change impacts in the sea and examine the approaches that may be useful for addressing this challenge. we first consider what the geological record and present-day analogues of future climate conditions can tell us about the potential for adaptation to climate change. we also examine evidence that phenotypic plasticity may assist marine species to persist in a rapidly changing climate. we then outline the various experimental approaches that can be used to estimate evolutionary potential, focusing on molecular tools, quantitative genetics, and experimental evolution, and we describe the benefits of combining different approaches to gain a deeper understanding of evolutionary potential. our goal is to provide a platform for future research addressing the evolutionary potential for marine organisms to cope with climate change. keywords adaptation, evolutionary potential, genetic variation, global warming, marine biodiversity, ocean acidification, phenotypic plasticity, quantitative genetics.
What is the aim of this paper?
the aim of this paper is to combine projected climatic suitability for five phlebotomus species in central europe (austria, germany and switzerland) for different time-periods during the 21st century with their potential spreading capacity to disperse to climatically suitable areas
What is indicated in the paper?
we indicate that the central european climate will develop toward the preferred bioclimatic niche of the species, especially from midcentury onwards
What else is elucidate within this study?
we also elucidate within this study that sandflies will hardly be able to occupy the whole areas that will provide suitable climatic conditions due to their limited natural dispersal ability
growing evidence exists on the emergence of sandflyborne diseases in the light of climate change. determining the principle responses of phlebotomine sandflies to climatic changes supports our understanding of future regions that will be threatened by new-establishments of this important group of disease vectors. the aim of this paper is to combine projected climatic suitability for five phlebotomus species in central europe (austria, germany and switzerland) for different time-periods during the 21st century with their potential spreading capacity to disperse to climatically suitable areas. we indicate that the central european climate will develop toward the preferred bioclimatic niche of the species, especially from midcentury onwards. nevertheless, we also elucidate within this study that sandflies will hardly be able to occupy the whole areas that will provide suitable climatic conditions due to their limited natural dispersal ability. our approach provides a framework to combine statistical modelling techniques with expert knowledge on species ecology. indications of future occurrences of disease vectors may help to initiate surveillance systems in specific regions at an early stage of risk exposure. hence, the threat of the climate-driven spatial extension of disease vectors and consequently of potentially emerging vector-borne diseases can be counteracted.
What is RegEM?
regem is a covariance-based iterative algorithm, which linearly models the relationship between available and missing values (given plausible ones
O algoritmo EM iterativo convencional estima o quÃª?
the mean and the covariance matrix of an incomplete data matrix
The EM algorithm is used under what assumption?
that the predictand and predictor data are gaussian
regem is a covariance-based iterative algorithm, which linearly models the relationship between available and missing values (given plausible ones). the method is based on the expectation maximisation (em) algorithm, and a regularisation scheme to take into account under-determined settings. the conventional iterative em algorithm estimates the mean and the covariance matrix of an incomplete data matrix (schneider, 2001). the em algorithm is used under the assumption that the predictand and predictor data are gaussian. in cases where the number of variables exceeds sample size, the em algorithm has to be regularised. thus the regularisation scheme truncated total least squares (ttls) is applied (a departure from the procedure described by schneider, 2001). in order to regularise the covariance matrix, its principal components are truncated, i.e. only a specific number of principal components are considered, according to the truncation parameter. optimal truncation parameters are identified based on the criterion proposed by mann et al (2007a). here regem is used to reconstruct a single series, while usually it is applied to reconstruct climatic fields, but is undertaken using the same nesting approach utilised for the cpr and pcr methods.
Which research method on climate change is used mostly in the coastal zone?
climate change research with respect to the coastal zone continues to be dominated by studies on the impacts of changing water levels (i.e., sea level rise and great lakes water level decline
Research work on climate change is extremely important, but does it keep out other important factors of the climate change, which ones?
while such work is extremely important, it is also necessary to better address impacts of other climate-related changes, such as storm processes and ice dynamics. equally important is the need for integrated studies, which consider the physical, social and economic components of the coastal zone
How will research on climate change in Canada be more efficient?
only by going beyond the traditional biophysical approach will comprehensive, integrated assessments of the vulnerability of canada's coastal zone to climate change be developed
climate change research with respect to the coastal zone continues to be dominated by studies on the impacts of changing water levels (i.e., sea level rise and great lakes water level decline). while such work is extremely important, it is also necessary to better address impacts of other climate-related changes, such as storm processes and ice dynamics. equally important is the need for integrated studies, which consider the physical, social and economic components of the coastal zone. only by going beyond the traditional biophysical approach will comprehensive, integrated assessments of the vulnerability of canada's coastal zone to climate change be developed. needs identified within the recent literature cited in this chapter include the following:
What are the two cities subject to hurricane landfalls at least once a year?
two of the cities, mumbai and shanghai, are subject to hurricane (tropical cyclone) landfalls at least once a year
Where should we focus to collecting data to explore climate hazard vulnerability for these three global cities?
we focused on collecting data in the categories shown in table 1 to explore climate hazard vulnerability for these three global cities
What are the components include to arise endogenously to the system?
note that data on stresses and perturbations include both climate and social components, some of which arise endogenously to the system
yangtze), and all are coastal cities with significant areas just above sea level. two of the cities, mumbai and shanghai, are subject to hurricane (tropical cyclone) landfalls at least once a year. we focused on collecting data in the categories shown in table 1 to explore climate hazard vulnerability for these three global cities. note that data on stresses and perturbations include both climate and social components, some of which arise endogenously to the system. likewise, system characteristics include elements of physical geography and built infrastructure, coupled with socioeconomic conditions that include what we term endowments, and coping abilities (both direct and indirect). figure 2. projected changes in temperature by city and season
what is the objective of anaerobic reactor with internal recirculation?
the anaerobic reactor with internal recirculation can be considered a variation of the uasb reactor, and has been developed with the objective of guaranteeing a larger efficiency when submitted to high volumetric organic loads
what should be done to allow the application of high loads?
to allow the application of high loads, it is necessary to have a more efficient gas, solids and liquid separation, as the high turbulence caused by the production of gases hinders the biomass retention in the system
How many stages does  the gas, solids and liquid separation In the reactor with internal recirculation involves?
in the reactor with internal recirculation, the gas, solids and liquid separation is done in two stages
anaerobic treatment systems 725 (e) anaerobic reactor with internal recirculation the anaerobic reactor with internal recirculation can be considered a variation of the uasb reactor, and has been developed with the objective of guaranteeing a larger efficiency when submitted to high volumetric organic loads (up to 30 to 40 kgcod/m3* d). to allow the application of high loads, it is necessary to have a more efficient gas, solids and liquid separation, as the high turbulence caused by the production of gases hinders the biomass retention in the system. in the reactor with internal recirculation, the gas, solids and liquid separation is done in two stages:
What climate variables exist?
climate variables are inherently correlated across space and time
How â€œrandomâ€ is the variation in space?
variation across space displays significantly less " randomness, " especially at smaller spatial scales
How does space affect econometric estimation?
the weather or climate variables that we use in econometric estimation are highly spatially correlated
climate variables are inherently correlated across space and time. while variation in weather is often considered random across time, variation across space displays significantly less " randomness, " especially at smaller spatial scales. this means that some of the weather or climate variables that we use in econometric estimation are highly spatially correlated and that estimates of standard errors will be biased unless steps are taken to correct for spatial correlation. to provide a sense of the degree of spatial correlation in these data sets, figure 2 shows the average correlation of annual mean temperature at each cru (version ts 2.1) grid cell
What are the dominant forces in changes in yield variability and location in production?
the dominant forces in changes in yield variability and location in production are likely due to changes other than the changes in climate over the past 1 00 years
What do we need to evaluate the direction of effect of historic climate change?
sorting out either the direction of effect of historic climate change or its magnitude requires more sophisticated empirical evaluation
What are the effects of federal farm programs on production choices?
the explanation for the change in variability is more complex but the fact that cropping was increasingly concentrated in areas better suited for production, the ability of farmers to adopt technologies to limit yield risk to climate factors such as irrigation, grain drying, and the effects of federal farm programs on production choices 15 are likely responsible for these changes
the explanation for the change in variability is more complex but the fact that cropping was increasingly concentrated in areas better suited for production, the ability of farmers to adopt technologies to limit yield risk to climate factors such as irrigation, grain drying, and the effects of federal farm programs on production choices 15 are likely responsible for these changes. the dominant forces in changes in yield variability and location in production are likely due to changes other than the changes in climate over the past 1 00 years. sorting out either the direction of effect of historic climate change or its magnitude requires more sophisticated empirical evaluation.
what are the hydrological cycle ?
some of the major uncertainties in the models, in particular the impacts of aerosols and clouds, as well as their suspected impacts on the aspects of the hydrological cycle having to do with snow and ice
what are the current scientific evidence suggests?
current scientific evidence suggests that these processes, which are currently either not included, or are marginally included, in ipcc scenario runs, will act to increase the impact of mere temperature increase on the snow and ice fields of the planet
How much they can do?
they can do is uncertain given the several decades of warming that will occur as a result of past actions, even if greenhouse emissions were halted at today's levels66, but perhaps the initiation of strategic planning will be motivated by the prospect (and what is rapidly becoming the reality) of diminished water supplies
we have discussed briefly here some of the major uncertainties in the models, in particular the impacts of aerosols and clouds, as well as their suspected impacts on the aspects of the hydrological cycle having to do with snow and ice. in all the cases considered, current scientific evidence suggests that these processes, which are currently either not included, or are marginally included, in ipcc scenario runs, will act to increase the impact of mere temperature increase on the snow and ice fields of the planet. time is running out for nations in the sensitive areas we have evaluated, particularly those whose water supplies are dependent on mid-latitude glaciers, to understand just what the future might hold for them. how much they can do is uncertain given the several decades of warming that will occur as a result of past actions, even if greenhouse emissions were halted at today's levels66, but perhaps the initiation of strategic planning will be motivated by the prospect (and what is rapidly becoming the reality) of diminished water supplies.
What stimulates rapid and excessive growth or blooms of harmful algae?
water contamination from agricultural activities is related to the release of microbial pathogens or nutrients in livestock manure and inorganic fertilizers that can stimulate rapid and excessive growth or blooms of harmful algae
Give details of agricultural land data of the  U.S mentioned in the paragraph?
agricultural land covers about 900 million acres across the united states,22 comprising over 2 million farms, with livestock sectors concentrated in certain regions of the united states
What is the quantity of manure produced in the  U.S each year?
depending on the type and number of animals, a large livestock operation can produce between 2,800 and 1,600,000 tons of manure each year
water contamination from agricultural activities is related to the release of microbial pathogens or nutrients in livestock manure and inorganic fertilizers that can stimulate rapid and excessive growth or blooms of harmful algae. agricultural land covers about 900 million acres across the united states,22 comprising over 2 million farms, with livestock sectors concentrated in certain regions of the united states (figure 3). depending on the type and number of animals, a large livestock operation can produce between 2,800 and 1,600,000 tons of manure each year.23, 24 with the projected increases in heavy precipitation for all u.s. regions,1 agricultural sources of contamination can affect water quality across
What should be the human motivation associated with sports?
it has recently been proposed that a comprehensive and meaningful model of human motivation relevant to sport should provide insight not only into differences in achievement striving but also in regard to possible positive and potentially negative health outcomes associated with sport participation (duda, 2001a
How is stress motivated in the sports environment considered?
motivational factors emphasized in the sporting environment are presumed to play an important role in influencing the psychological and physical well-being (both positive and negative) of athletes
What promotes the well-being of young athletes?
practical perspective, such work can provide a rationale for and guidelines regarding the development of coachfocused interventions aimed at enhancing the welfare of young athletes
it has recently been proposed that a comprehensive and meaningful model of human motivation relevant to sport should provide insight not only into differences in achievement striving but also in regard to possible positive and potentially negative health outcomes associated with sport participation (duda, 2001a). motivational factors emphasized in the sporting environment are presumed to play an important role in influencing the psychological and physical well-being (both positive and negative) of athletes. in particular, coaches are assumed to play an active role in athletes' training and competitive encounters and are a major source of instruction and feedback for sport participants. therefore, it is important to investigate the perceived social situation they create and how that psychological environment corresponds to the quality of athletes' sport experiences and subjective well-being in the athletic setting and overall in their lives. from a practical perspective, such work can provide a rationale for and guidelines regarding the development of coachfocused interventions aimed at enhancing the welfare of young athletes.
How many replicates per sample were analysed?
five replicates per sampling date were analysed
How often was root length acquired?
root length was acquired by the minirhizotron technique three times a year
How deep were tubes installed?
tubes were installed to a depth of 45 cm
root length was used as proxy for below-ground productivity. root length was acquired by the minirhizotron technique three times a year. one clear plastic tube (5 cm diameter) was installed at a 45  angle in each plot prior to planting. tubes were installed to a depth of 45 cm. portions of the tubes exposed at the surface were covered with adhesive aluminium foil and the ends were capped to prevent entry of water, light and heat. images of 4 cm2were collected in the main rooting zone at 15 cm in each tube by a digital camera mounted on an endoscope. images were analysed for root length using the line intersection method (tennant 1975) within a systematic grid (10 * 10, with a grid unit of 0.2 * 0.2 cm). five replicates per sampling date were analysed.
what is the term of The 'burden of disease
the 'burden of disease' is the term used to describe the total impact of disease or health condition in a population, including deaths, cases and years lived with disability (for chronic diseases
where does The metrics use
the metrics used in environment and health decision making include: deaths, dalys (disabilityadjusted life years), qalys (quality-adjusted life years) (hofstetter and hammitt, 2001; mathers et al., 2003
the 'burden of disease' is the term used to describe the total impact of disease or health condition in a population, including deaths, cases and years lived with disability (for chronic diseases). the metrics used in environment and health decision making include: deaths, dalys (disabilityadjusted life years), qalys (quality-adjusted life years) (hofstetter and hammitt, 2001; mathers et al., 2003). methods of cost-benefit analysis (cba) and cost-effectiveness analysis (cea) are not generally applied to health issues at the global scale but are used to assess the benefits of alternative policy choices at the local scale. the main criticism of the costing method in the unfccc report is that micro-methods (which are very context-specific) are being applied inappropriately to a global problem. health has been incorporated into some integrated assessment models (iams) as a damage function or an impairment to economic productivity (bosello, roson and tol, 2006; tol, 2002). health costs, when estimated, make a considerable contribution to overall damage costs, as the statistical value of a life is high. in general, the iams have incorporated into their damage estimates only the very basic health models for heat/cold effects on mortality and malaria. there have been several reviews of the costs of health interventions, where cost-effectiveness is the main method used. the disease control priorities in developing countries project has evaluated the scientific and economic evidence on the available interventions for all the major infectious and chronic (non-communicable) diseases (world bank, 2006). thus, there have been extensive reviews of the cost-effectiveness of health interventions relevant to climate change in the following areas: * malaria * malnutrition * diarrhoeal disease * food safety. however, there is still considerable uncertainty around the cost-effectiveness of these interventions. some have been relatively well researched, e.g. insecticide-treated bed-nets, but for some there is less information (e.g. indoor residual insecticide spraying) (mills and shillcutt, 2004). for some interventions, such as heat-health warning systems, there is practically no robust information on their effectiveness (kovats and hajat, 2008). it should also be noted that health adaptation costs in high-income countries are not included in the unfccc costs. such costs would be higher due to the higher infrastructure and labour costs. in addition, the thresholds for intervention (costs per case prevented) are higher.
Explain damage niche for A. theophrasti in U.S. maize cropping systems?
fig. 6. historical and projected distribution of the damage niche for a. theophrasti in u.s. maize cropping systems. projections are for climatology centered on 2030 and 2084 under a 'business-as-usual' ghg emission scenario. towards the end of the century, the damage niche for a. theophrasti may experience a pole-ward retreat of approximately 200-650 km north of present-day boundaries
Explain damage niche for S?
fig. 7. historical and projected distribution of the damage niche for s. halepense in u.s. maize cropping systems. projections are for climatology centered on 2030 and 2084 under a 'business-as-usual' ghg emission scenario. towards the end of the century, the damage niche for s. halepense may experience a pole-ward advance of approximately 200-600 km north of present-day boundaries. a. mcdonald et al. agriculture, ecosystems and environment 130 (2009) 131-140 138
Elaborate damage towards boundaries?
towards the end of the century, the damage niche for s. halepense may experience a pole-ward advance of approximately 200-600 km north of present-day boundaries. a. mcdonald et al. agriculture, ecosystems and environment 130 (2009) 131-140 138
fig. 6. historical and projected distribution of the damage niche for a. theophrasti in u.s. maize cropping systems. projections are for climatology centered on 2030 and 2084 under a 'business-as-usual' ghg emission scenario. towards the end of the century, the damage niche for a. theophrasti may experience a pole-ward retreat of approximately 200-650 km north of present-day boundaries. fig. 7. historical and projected distribution of the damage niche for s. halepense in u.s. maize cropping systems. projections are for climatology centered on 2030 and 2084 under a 'business-as-usual' ghg emission scenario. towards the end of the century, the damage niche for s. halepense may experience a pole-ward advance of approximately 200-600 km north of present-day boundaries. a. mcdonald et al. agriculture, ecosystems and environment 130 (2009) 131-140 138
What the study shows?
our study shows that temperature-related adaptive differentiation occurs between individuals at the upper and lower altitudinal limits of fagus sylvatica
What the increases in temperature are doing with this population?
recent increases in temperature as a result of global climate change are imposing a directional selection pressure on the population, resulting in the directional genetic change that we report here
our study shows that temperature-related adaptive differentiation occurs between individuals at the upper and lower altitudinal limits of fagus sylvatica. we hypothesize that this temperature-linked polymorphism is maintained at lower altitudes by balancing selection resulting from normal interannual variability in climate. recent increases in temperature as a result of global climate change are imposing a directional selection pressure on the population, resulting in the directional genetic change that we report here. in the studied population, an evolutionary response to warming temperatures is underway. however, although we show that this population has some capacity for short-term adaptation, this is not enough to allow this species to persist in all of its current locations as ongoing changes in the species' distribution demonstrate.
What is the major challenge faced by human society?
climate change is a major challenge faced by human society (ipcc 2007; stern 2007; world bank 2012a). while there is increasing recognition of this challenge around the world, there is also an increasing reluctance about enacting global climate policies in the near to medium term
What reflects college facts?
this reflects the fact that international climate negotiations have faced only slow progress in recent years, and a global climate treaty mandating comprehensive greenhouse gas emissions reductions has remained so-far illusive
What led to climate policy
this has led to climate policy slipping down the global policy agenda, casting further doubt on the prospects of near-term success. this paper provides an overview of 2degc scenarios that account for the fragmented nature of current mitigation efforts. they were tailored to represent a range of plausible outcomes of the on-going durban platform negotiations on a post-2020 climate architecture
climate change is a major challenge faced by human society (ipcc 2007; stern 2007; world bank 2012a). while there is increasing recognition of this challenge around the world, there is also an increasing reluctance about enacting global climate policies in the near to medium term. this reflects the fact that international climate negotiations have faced only slow progress in recent years, and a global climate treaty mandating comprehensive greenhouse gas emissions reductions has remained so-far illusive. although a series of climate policy measures were adopted in several world regions (unep 2012), global emissions have been rising over the last decade with only a small downturn in 2008-9 in the wake of the financial crisis (edgar 2011). national and international policy agendas are currently overwhelmed with economic crisis and other significant world developments. this has led to climate policy slipping down the global policy agenda, casting further doubt on the prospects of near-term success. this paper provides an overview of 2degc scenarios that account for the fragmented nature of current mitigation efforts. they were tailored to represent a range of plausible outcomes of the on-going durban platform negotiations on a post-2020 climate architecture. we use a set of seven energy-economy and integrated assessment models to perform an original assessment of possible durban platform outcomes, which elucidate the relation between near
According to ExxonMobil, what percent of global power will be generated renewably by 2040?
however, the oil firm exxonmobil predicts that all renewables will supply just 11% of global power generation by 2040 (ref. 4
By 2050, how much global energy generation could be done by solar power?
and solar power alone could supply 29% of global electricity generation by 2050
What is the impact of the rise in electric vehicles for coal and natural gas?
this would remove the need for coal and leave natural gas with only a 1% market share
growth in electric vehicles alone could displace 2 million barrels of oil per day by 2025, according to a february report<s180>4. it suggests that, by 2050, this could reach 25 million barrels of oil per day -- a stark contrast to expectations from the fossil-fuel industry <s111>that demand for oil will rise. and solar power alone could supply 29% of global electricity generation by 2050. this would remove the need for coal and leave natural gas with only a 1% market share. however, the oil firm exxonmobil predicts that all renewables will supply just 11% of global power generation by 2040 (ref. 4).
Who estimated individual WTP to avoid future climate change using a convenience sample of college students?
cameron (2005) and viscusi and zeckhauser (2006) estimated individual wtp to avoid future climate change using a convenience sample of college students
Give two discoveries by Cameroon(2005)
cameron (2005) found individual support for climate change mitigation increases at a decreasing rate with the increase in expected scale of climate change. she also showed that individual wtp varies negatively with the level of climate change scale uncertainty 6 6 (measured by the variance of respondents' subjectively estimated future temperature increases
What contradiction from Cameroon (2005)'s study did Viscusi and Zeckhauser (2006) find?
showed that the relationship between the expected scale of unmitigated climate change and respondents' wtp for climate change mitigation was positive and linear. contrary to cameron's (2005) result, they found that greater scientific uncertainty about the scale of climate change lead to higher support for mitigation policy
cameron (2005) and viscusi and zeckhauser (2006) estimated individual wtp to avoid future climate change using a convenience sample of college students. both of these studies accounted for respondents' perceptions of the scale of unmitigated climate change (in the form of respondents' best guesses of future temperature change) on individual preferences to support a climate change policy. cameron (2005) found individual support for climate change mitigation increases at a decreasing rate with the increase in expected scale of climate change. she also showed that individual wtp varies negatively with the level of climate change scale uncertainty 6 6 (measured by the variance of respondents' subjectively estimated future temperature increases). further, wtp for climate change mitigation varied significantly across male and female respondents and respondents' level of informedness of climate change. viscusi and zeckhauser (2006) showed that the relationship between the expected scale of unmitigated climate change and respondents' wtp for climate change mitigation was positive and linear. contrary to cameron's (2005) result, they found that greater scientific uncertainty about the scale of climate change lead to higher support for mitigation policy. further, they showed that wtp vary substantially depending on respondents' perceptions of the impact of climate change. respondents who believed climate change would cause significant increases in hurricane activity, were willing to pay more to support the mitigation policy.
What did this research show can successfully capture people's attention to the issue of climate change?
this research has shown that dramatic, sensational, fearful, shocking, and other climate change representations of a similar ilk can successfully capture people's attention to the issue of climate change and drive a general sense of the importance of the issue
What does this research show is a downside to using dramatic, sensational, fearful, shocking, and similar climate change representations to  capture people's attention to the issue?
however, they are also likely to distance or disengage individuals from climate change, tending to render them feeling helpless and overwhelmed when they try to comprehend their own relationship with the issue
What communications approaches are more likely to meaningfully engage individuals with climate change?
the results demonstrate that communications approaches that take account of individuals' personal points of reference (e.g., based on an understanding and appreciation of their values, attitudes, beliefs, local environment, and experiences) are more likely to meaningfully engage individuals with climate change
this research has shown that dramatic, sensational, fearful, shocking, and other climate change representations of a similar ilk can successfully capture people's attention to the issue of climate change and drive a general sense of the importance of the issue. however, they are also likely to distance or disengage individuals from climate change, tending to render them feeling helpless and overwhelmed when they try to comprehend their own relationship with the issue. these types of representations have a common presence in the mass media and wider public domain. in light of the results presented in this article, this is a worrying finding, particularly if voluntary reductions in ghg emissions through individual and household behavior change are critical if western nations are to reach their decarbonization targets. although shocking, catastrophic, and large-scale representations of the impacts of climate change may well act as an initial hook for people's attention and concern, they clearly do not motivate a sense of personal engagement with the issue and indeed may act to trigger barriers to engagement such as denial and others described by lorenzoni et al. (2007). the results demonstrate that communications approaches that take account of individuals' personal points of reference (e.g., based on an understanding and appreciation of their values, attitudes, beliefs, local environment, and experiences) are more likely to meaningfully engage individuals with climate change. this was tested here in relation to nonexpert icons and locally relevant climate change imagery. more broadly, communication strategies must be in touch with the other concerns and pressures on everyday life that people experience. such approaches can act to decrease barriers to engagement; for example, because the icons selected by nonexperts are often local or regional places that individuals care about and empathize with, such approaches are less likely to induce feelings of invulnerability than, say, a fear appeal
Inclusion of the extra GWD at 60 8 S results in what?
inclusion of the extra gwd at 60 8 s results in a substantial reduction in the wind and temperature biases as seen in figs. 6 and 7
Is the temperature biases in the GWD60S experiment smaller than in the control simulation?
the temperature biases in the gwd60s experiment are much smaller than in the control simulation, with improvement even occurring in early summer in the stratosphere when the direct impact of the extra gwd is negligible (fig. 6b
Has the date of the transition to easterlies improved?
moreover, the date of the transition to easterlies also has improved, as seen by the lack of contours in the stratosphere in december in fig. 7d
inclusion of the extra gwd at 60 8 s results in a substantial reduction in the wind and temperature biases as seen in figs. 6 and 7. the temperature biases in the gwd60s experiment are much smaller than in the control simulation, with improvement even occurring in early summer in the stratosphere when the direct impact of the extra gwd is negligible (fig. 6b). moreover, the date of the transition to easterlies also has improved, as seen by the lack of contours in the stratosphere in december in fig. 7d. the latter is quantified in figs. 8 and 9, which
Interactions between climate change and land use change present a number of risks for what?
biodiversity conservation
Climate change also affects what which will influence their sensitivity depending on when in the year a drought occurs?
species phenology
What are projections for biodiversity based on?
obtaining reliable projections of land use and climate change
interactions between climate change and land use change present a number of risks for biodiversity conservation, but also several opportunities. the complex nature of interactions between global change drivers means that we may never have accurate predictive models for biodiversity impacts. for example, the effects of increased drought under climate change may be moderated by local land use, but climate change also affects species phenology which will influence their sensitivity depending on when in the year a drought occurs. in addition to interaction chain and modification effects between drivers, the effects on individual species may cascade through communities causing unanticipated effects.1these problems are in addition to the fact that there are clear difficulties in obtaining reliable projections of land use and climate change on which to base our projections for biodiversity. therefore, predicting combined effects of multiple drivers on biodiversity is particularly challenging.9
Which state provides first policy framework for climate change ?
in the united states, california has been one of the first states to provide a policy framework for climate change mitigation and adaptation initiatives, many of which have implications for the agricultural sector [9,10
What is the primary challenge of climate change?
one of the primary challenges of climate change is that the risks are often perceived as being rather distant and diffused over space and time. this ''psychological distance'' associated with climate change is comprised of geographic, temporal, and social dimensions as well as the perceivers' feelings of uncertainty [16,17
What is the abbreviation of CLT?
emerging research on psychological distance and its associated construal level theory (clt) suggests that individuals experience cognitive perceptions of climate change that can be either close or distant
even if the most optimistic emissions mitigation targets set by the intergovernmental panel on climate change are achieved, climate change will continue to progress for many decades to come [1,2]. given agriculture's reliance on natural resources and weather, it is inherently vulnerable to climate change impacts [3,4]. agriculture is also an important source of greenhouse gas emissions, accounting for 10-12% of total anthropogenic emissions annually these facts highlight the need to balance effective mitigation efforts that reduce greenhouse gas emissions with robust adaptation initiatives that enable farmers to cope with the effects of climate change and thus safeguard the resilience of social-ecological systems like agriculture [6-8]. in the united states, california has been one of the first states to provide a policy framework for climate change mitigation and adaptation initiatives, many of which have implications for the agricultural sector [9,10]. under california's global warming solutions act (ab-32), which aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2020, the state is developing policies to encourage voluntary mitigation and adaptation among farmers through the adoption of water and crop management practices, renewable energy technologies, and possible participation in carbon markets [10,11]. while a few countries now regulate emissions from agriculture through mandatory reporting, emission caps, or taxes on inputs, most countries employ a voluntary approach [11,12]. since these climate policies rely on bottom up voluntary efforts by rural communities and individual farmers, their success will require a sound understanding of what motivates farmers to adopt practices that facilitate mitigation and adaptation [13-15]. this study examines how past climate perceptions and local and global climate change beliefs and concerns influence the adoption of both mitigation and adaptation practices among farmers. one of the primary challenges of climate change is that the risks are often perceived as being rather distant and diffused over space and time. this ''psychological distance'' associated with climate change is comprised of geographic, temporal, and social dimensions as well as the perceivers' feelings of uncertainty [16,17]. emerging research on psychological distance and its associated construal level theory (clt) suggests that individuals experience cognitive perceptions of climate change that can be either close or distant [17,18]. for instance, climate impacts that are psychologically close (e.g. geographically or temporally proximate) are construed as concrete, tangible events relevant to the perceiver's specific local or personal context (i.e. low level
What is the main ecological effect of organic pollution in a water body?
the main ecological effect of organic pollution in a water body is the decrease in the level of dissolved oxygen
What does BOD stand for?
biochemical oxygen demand
What is the principle behind Theoretical Oxygen Demand?
if the substrate was, for example, glucose (c6h12o6), the quantity of oxygen required to oxidise the given quantity of glucose could be calculated through the basic equation of respiration
total organic carbon (toc) a) biochemical oxygen demand (bod) the main ecological effect of organic pollution in a water body is the decrease in the level of dissolved oxygen. similarly, in sewage treatment using aerobic processes, the adequate supply of oxygen is essential, so that the metabolic processes of the microorganisms can lead to the stabilisation of the organic matter. the basic idea is then to infer the "strength" of the pollution potential of a wastewater by the measurement of the oxygen consumption that it would cause, that is, an indirect quantificationofthepotentialtogenerateanimpact,andnotthedirectmeasurement of the impact in itself. this quantification could be obtained through stoichiometric calculations based on the reactions of oxidation of the organic matter. if the substrate was, for example, glucose (c6h12o6), the quantity of oxygen required to oxidise the given quantity of glucose could be calculated through the basic equation of respiration. this is the principle of the so-called theoretical oxygen demand (tod). in practice, however, a large obstacle is present: the sewage has a great heterogeneity in its composition, and to try to establish all its constituents in order to calculate the oxygen demand based on the chemical oxidation reactions of each of them is totally impractical. besides, to extrapolate the data to other conditions would not be possible. the solution found was to measure in the laboratory the consumption of oxygen exerted by a standard volume of sewage or other liquid, in a predetermined time. it was thus introduced the important concept of biochemical oxygen demand (bod) the bod represents the quantity of oxygen required to stabilise, through biochemical processes, the carbonaceous organic matter it is an indirect indication, therefore, of the biodegradable organic carbon. complete stabilisation takes, in practical terms, various days (around 20 days or more for domestic sewage). this corresponds to the ultimate biochemical oxygen demand (bodu). however, to shorten the time for the laboratory test, and to allow a comparison of the various results, some standardisations were established:
If this rate and magnitude of temperature increase continues what is expected to happen?
it is likely that new ecological thresholds will be crossed, many of which may be unexpected
the diatom data included in our meta-analysis of over 200 lakes provide a spatially coherent picture that climate-driven, taxon-specific changes are now evident across vast regions of the northern hemisphere representing a wide spectrum of lake ecosystems. although the degree of ecological change may vary between lakes (as would be expected, based on morphometry and other limnological variables), the similarity in this diatom trend across a regional scale is striking. freshwater ecosystems in the northern hemisphere have crossed ecological thresholds with changing climate that were initiated in the 19th century in arctic and alpine regions, but typically only occurred in the mid-20th century in lakes from mid-latitude regions of north america and western europe. the recurring and widespread trend of recent increases in the relative abundances of planktonic cyclotella species is strongly correlated to recent increases in temperature and substantially longer ice-free periods. synergistic effects between climate warming and other human-induced stressors also occur (wolfe et al ., 2006). however, based on the timing, magnitude, and nature of the diatom changes, we conclude that climatically induced change in lake-ice cover (and associated limnological changes) was the primary explanatory metric for hemisphericscale increases in planktonic cyclotella species over the last ca. 200 years. our findings are particularly troubling given that the ecological changes we report are widespread, and have occurred with increases in mean annual temperatures that are substantially lower than levels projected by climate models for both highand mid-latitude regions of the northern hemisphere. if this rate and magnitude of temperature increase continues, it is likely that new ecological thresholds will be crossed, many of which may be unexpected.
What appears to doom international climate agreements like he Kyoto Protocol?
as noted above, the syndrome of free-riding along with the international norm of voluntary participation appears to doom international climate agreements like the kyoto protocol
How is the concept of stability denoted?
the concept of stability used here is denoted as a coalition nash equilibrium
What is the most appealing structure?
the most appealing structure is one that does not depend on sophisticated and fragile repeated-game strategies and instead has an efficient equilibrium for every period in the stage games in a repeated game
as noted above, the syndrome of free-riding along with the international norm of voluntary participation appears to doom international climate agreements like the kyoto protocol. the suggestion in this paper is that a club structure--where external sanctions are imposed on nonmembers--will be necessary to induce effective agreements. i analyze in depth a specific model of sanctions tariffs on nonparticipants but the model illustrates the more general point that external sanctions are necessary to promote participation in effective agreements to provide global public goods. a. stable coalitions while it is easy to design potential international climate agreements, the reality is that it is difficult to construct ones that are effective and stable. effective means abatement approaching the global optimum. the concept of stability used here is denoted as a coalition nash equilibrium under this definition, a coalition is stable if no group sub-coalition among the countries can improve its welfare by changing its status. that is, it combines individual rationality for each player individually collective rationality for all players together and coalition rationality for each subset of the players this is a natural extension of a nash equilibrium, which applies to single countries. the concept is widely used in different fields and was originally called strong equilibrium in aumann 1959 also see bernheim, peleg, and whinston 1987 the term coalition nash is more intuitive and is used here. the small coalition paradox motivates the current approach. the goal here is to find a structure that is stable and effective for a wide variety of country preferences, technologies, and strategies. the most appealing structure is one that does not depend on sophisticated and fragile repeated-game strategies and instead has an efficient equilibrium for every period in the stage games in a repeated game. i therefore focus on one-shot games that have efficient and unique equilibria. if these are then turned into a repeated game, each of the one-shot games will be a sub-game-perfect coalition nash equilibrium, and the repeated game will have an efficient coalition-nash equilibrium. b. transfers undermine coalition stability the present study assumes that there is no sharing of the gains from cooperation among members of the coalition. in some cases, particularly those with asymmetric
What are networks of marine protected areas being assessed for?
their ability to preserve biodiversity under a changing climate, including considerations of size, spatial layout, risk spreading, critical areas, and connectivity
What would future coastal management approaches benefit from?
acknowledging that coastal environments are dynamic and involve uncertain, long-term trends and shifting baselines
Noting that both eutrophication and land-based acidic inputs presently lower pH in coastal ecosystems, what does Kelly et. al.  argue for?
that enforcement of water and air pollution laws, controlling coastal erosion, and managing land use can provide some level of protection from acidification resulting from increased atmospheric co2 concentrations
coastal management strategies to adapt to the consequences of climate change beyond slr and acidification are less well developed. one common suggestion is to ensure the resilience of present ecosystems by alleviating other anthropogenic stresses (e.g., those caused by overfishing, pollution, and habitat loss) that have degraded them. this amounts to a "no regrets" management strategy that would produce benefits in any case (33). similar suggestions have been made for management of coral reefs as they confront both warming and acidification (37, 38). noting that both eutrophication and land-based acidic inputs presently lower ph in coastal ecosystems, kelly et al. (150) argue that enforcement of water and air pollution laws, controlling coastal erosion, and managing land use can provide some level of protection from acidification resulting from increased atmospheric co2 concentrations. fisheries managers also have a variety of risk-averse and adaptive strategies that can improve resilience and help fisheries adjust to climate variability and change. it is unclear, however, whether concerns about climate change and acidification are sufficient to help overcome existing obstacles for implementing such no regrets strategies. other adaptation strategies, such as providing warnings to oyster hatcheries when low ph waters are upwelled (88), may have to be pursued. finally, networks of marine protected areas are being assessed for their ability to preserve biodiversity under a changing climate, including considerations of size, spatial layout, risk spreading, critical areas, and connectivity (151). thus, a variety of adaptation approaches should be considered and integrated at the local and regional level as indicated by coastal sediment and water dynamics, bringing together managers from heretofore often separately operating departments and agencies (e.g., landuse planning, public health, natural resource management, emergency management, transportation, water management, and economic development). future coastal management approaches would benefit from acknowledging that coastal environments are dynamic and involve uncertain, long-term trends and shifting baselines. this would involve recognizing and accounting for the long time horizons of decisions, longer time frames for planning (typically 30 years), time lags in the climate and ocean systems, potential physical and ecological thresholds or tipping points, and the long lead times often required for effecting socioeconomic responses. such shifts in thinking and practice would go a long way toward improving adaptive coastal management.
Helheim and Kangerdlugssuaq responded to a reduction in sea-ice and enhanced hydro-fracturing due to what?
helheim and kangerdlugssuaq largely respond to a reduction in sea-ice and enhanced hydro-fracturing due to surface melt
Jakobshavn dynamics are more sensitive to what kind of melt?
dynamics of jakobshavn are more sensitive to forcing by submarine melt
The Petermann Glacier is sensitive to what kind of melt?
petermann glacier seems currently insensitive to changes at the terminus. instead, its dynamics tend to be dominated by submarine melt concentrated
in general, the model reasonably reproduces the observed changes such as terminus positions and velocities over the last decade (see fig. s3 to s6), and confirms the sensitivities to different forcing mechanisms indicated by observations. we find that helheim and kangerdlugssuaq largely respond to a reduction in sea-ice and enhanced hydro-fracturing due to surface melt, with little response to submarine melt or basal and lateral lubrication21. the dynamics of jakobshavn are more sensitive to forcing by submarine melt, due to the high submarine melt rate22 and a more extensive ice-ocean interface when an ice tongue is present. as a result of weak lateral resistance from its thin, wide floating ice tongue, the flow of petermann glacier seems currently insensitive to changes at the terminus. instead, its dynamics tend to be dominated by submarine melt concentrated near the grounding line13.
What does identity mean by national governments?
the research priorities identified by national governments (box 1) provide useful guidance to us in making more direct connections with implementation. this includes calls not only for improved assessments of the scale and nature of climate risks (which can be considered to include detection and attribution and scenario modelling studies), but also for more applied research questions, covering intervention effectiveness, decision-support systems, assessment of policy decisions and resource implications
Expand WHO element?
these requests from senior health policy-makers are currently not well matched by research output. a systematic scoping review of the peer-reviewed literature on climate change and health, including vector-borne diseases, identified a number of research studies corresponding to the various priorities outlined by the who member states. however, there was a notable absence of studies identified on effective adaptation options as well as a general under-representation of research from poorer regions
Approach vector diagnostic disease?
this approach starts from the premise that the ultimate objective is not to address the specific health risks that are uniquely attributable to climate change (which are difficult to isolate from other determinants, either analytically or within control programmes), but instead to ensure sustained progress in decreasing vector-borne disease into the future. this approach avoids the unhelpful characterization of control of vector-borne disease, and addressing long-term climate change (including its health risks), as opposing and competing interests. instead, it recognizes that one of the most effective ways to protect health against climate change impacts in the long term is to drive down disease rates in the present. it validates increased coverage of basic public health interventions, and disease-specific control measures, not only as beneficial interventions in their own right but also as effective measures to increase protection from climate change
the research priorities identified by national governments (box 1) provide useful guidance to us in making more direct connections with implementation. this includes calls not only for improved assessments of the scale and nature of climate risks (which can be considered to include detection and attribution and scenario modelling studies), but also for more applied research questions, covering intervention effectiveness, decision-support systems, assessment of policy decisions and resource implications these requests from senior health policy-makers are currently not well matched by research output. a systematic scoping review of the peer-reviewed literature on climate change and health, including vector-borne diseases, identified a number of research studies corresponding to the various priorities outlined by the who member states. however, there was a notable absence of studies identified on effective adaptation options as well as a general under-representation of research from poorer regions. the review notes that this partly represents a failure to connect the very large body of research on effective interventions to control climate-sensitive diseases (e.g. on vector-control methods) to the longer-term challenge of climate change the mismatch between the expressed requirements of policy-makers and the coverage of peer-reviewed studies argues for focusing less explicitly on climate change per se and instead taking a broader approach to increasing resilience to climate, alongside other risks. this approach starts from the premise that the ultimate objective is not to address the specific health risks that are uniquely attributable to climate change (which are difficult to isolate from other determinants, either analytically or within control programmes), but instead to ensure sustained progress in decreasing vector-borne disease into the future. this approach avoids the unhelpful characterization of control of vector-borne disease, and addressing long-term climate change (including its health risks), as opposing and competing interests. instead, it recognizes that one of the most effective ways to protect health against climate change impacts in the long term is to drive down disease rates in the present. it validates increased coverage of basic public health interventions, and disease-specific control measures, not only as beneficial interventions in their own right but also as effective measures to increase protection from climate change. applying the research priorities identified by national governments to vector-borne disease suggests a programme of applied research that would include (i) assessments of the risks, including quantitative detection and attribution and scenario studies as above, but also more qualitative vulnerability and adaptation assessment that can explore a wider range of mechanisms (ii) evaluation of the effectiveness of individual interventions, or control programmes, including the degree to which climate variability and change may influence their effectiveness [47-49]; (iii) health impact assessment for climate adaptation and mitigation decisions that may affect vectorborne disease, such as irrigation schemes or changes in waterstorage practice providing breeding sites for vectors; (iv) surveillance, monitoring and associated decision-support tools, including the use of climate information as a resource to provide earlier warning of infectious disease epidemics and improve spatial targeting, for example and connection to standard operating procedures, such as the international health regulations, to address public health emergencies of international concern and (v) assessment of financial and other resource requirements, such as the costs that would be necessary to extend vector-borne disease surveillance or control interventions to newly suitable locations or seasons.
What do differences in the summer insulative value of the zonal vegetation mat affect?
differences in the summer insulative value of the zonal vegetation mat affect the depth of thaw along the arctic bioclimate gradient
What has been noted of the southern areas?
toward the south, taller, denser plant canopies and thicker organic horizons counter the effects of warmer temperatures, so that there is little correspondence between active layer depths and summer air temperature
What was examined in the study?
we examined the interactions between summer warmth, vegetation (biomass, leaf area index, normalized difference vegetation index), soil (texture and ph), and thaw depths at 17 sites in three bioclimate subzones of the arctic slope and seward peninsula, alaska
differences in the summer insulative value of the zonal vegetation mat affect the depth of thaw along the arctic bioclimate gradient. toward the south, taller, denser plant canopies and thicker organic horizons counter the effects of warmer temperatures, so that there is little correspondence between active layer depths and summer air temperature. we examined the interactions between summer warmth, vegetation (biomass, leaf area index, normalized difference vegetation index), soil (texture and ph), and thaw depths at 17 sites in three bioclimate subzones of the arctic slope and seward peninsula, alaska. total plant biomass in subzones c, d, and e averaged 421 g m 2, 503 g m 2, and 1178 g m 2respectively. soil organic horizons averaged 4 cm in subzone c, 8 cm in subzone d, and 14 cm in subzone e. the average late-august thaw depths in subzones c, d, and e were 44 cm, 55 cm, and 47 cm respectively. non-acidic soils in equivalent climates generally have shorter-stature sedge-dominated canopies and many frost boils, and consequently have thicker active layers than acidic soils. the trends reported here are useful for palaeo-ecological reconstructions and predictions of future ecosystem changes in the low arctic. climate change will not lead to uniform thickening of the active layer, and could lead to shallower active layers in some presently dry areas due to paludification. copyright  2003 john wiley sons, ltd.
Why is that form of experment to be considered invalid
it is omitting real-world dynamics that we have reason to believe, based on real-world evidence, actually matter in the real world
What do both parties on either side of the climate change debate believe about the other side?
those on both sides of the climate change debate believe that the other side's position is the one inconsistent with scientific consensus
why have all the previous highly funded efforts to make "people understand that scientists agree on global warming" so manifestly failed to "close the consensus gap" (University of Queensland, 2013)
culturally biased assimilation--the tendency of people to fit their perceptions of disputed facts to ones that predominate in their cultural group (kahan, braman, gastil, slovic, cohen, 2009)-- applies to their assessment of evidence of scientific consensus just as it does to their assessment of all other manner of evidence relating to climate change (corner, whitmarsh, xenias, 2012; kahan et al., 2011
such a strategy has already been tried in the real world. it didn't work there are, to be sure, many more things going on in the world, including countermessaging, than are going on in a "97% consensus" messaging experiment. but if those additional things account for the difference in the results, then that is exactly why that form experiment must be regarded as externally invalid: it is omitting real-world dynamics that we have reason to believe, based on real-world evidence, actually matter in the real world. on this account, the question to be investigated is not whether a "97% consensus" messaging campaign will influence public opinion but why it hasn't done so over a 10-year trial. the answer, presumably, is not that members of the public are divided on whether they should give weight to the conclusions scientists have reached in studying risks and other policy relevant facts. those on both sides of the climate change debate believe that the other side's position is the one inconsistent with scientific consensus. the erl authors' own recommendation to publicize their study results presupposes public consensus in the united states in support of using the best available scientific evidence in policymaking. the advice of those who continue to champion "97% consensus" social marketing campaigns does, too. so why have all the previous highly funded efforts to make "people understand that scientists agree on global warming" so manifestly failed to "close the consensus gap" (university of queensland, 2013)? there are studies that seek to answer exactly that question as well. they find that culturally biased assimilation--the tendency of people to fit their perceptions of disputed facts to ones that predominate in their cultural group (kahan, braman, gastil, slovic, cohen, 2009)-- applies to their assessment of evidence of scientific consensus just as it does to their assessment of all other manner of evidence relating to climate change (corner, whitmarsh, xenias, 2012; kahan et al., 2011). when people are shown evidence relating to what scientists believe about a culturally disputed policy-relevant fact (e.g., is the earth heating up? is it safe to store nuclear wastes deep underground? does allowing people to carry hand guns in public increase the risk of crime--or decrease it?), they selectively credit or dismiss that evidence depending on whether it is consistent with or inconsistent with their cultural group's position. as a result, they form polarized perceptions of scientific consensus even when they rely on the same sources of evidence. these studies imply misinformation is not a decisive source of public controversy over climate change. people in these studies are misinforming themselves by opportunistically adjusting the weight they give to evidence based on what they are already committed to believing. this form of identityprotective motivated reasoning (cohen, 2003; sherman cohen, 2006) occurs, this work suggests, not just in the climate change debate but in numerous others in which these same cultural groups trade places being out of line with the national academy of sciences' assessments of what "expert consensus" is (kahan et al., 2011). to accept that this dynamic explains persistent public disagreement over scientific consensus on climate change, one has to be confident that these experimental studies are externally valid. realworld communicators should definitely think carefully about that. but because these experiments are testing alternative explanations for something we clearly observe in the real world (deep public division on climate change), they don't suffer from the obvious defects of studies that predict we should already live in world we don't see.
How is labor productivity generated?
labor productivity is generated by economy-wide estimates of labor productivity growth--with allowance for sector-specific deviations--and land productivity growth is calibrated exogenously to the yield growth assumptions derived from ifpri's impact model
What anecdotal evidence exists?
there is anecdotal evidence of autonomous changes in farm practices that are not picked up by the ge models, but that could neutralize the impact of climate change on productivity of factors other than land in agriculture--for example, changes in the timing of planting and harvesting
What do the GE models pick up?
the ge models pick up endogenous adaptation that is a result of changes in relative (efficient) prices; that is, the de facto rise in the price of land (in efficiency terms) leads to an increase in the demand for other inputs such as labor and capital; the degree of which is determined by the underlying factor substitution elasticities
labor productivity is generated by economy-wide estimates of labor productivity growth--with allowance for sector-specific deviations--and land productivity growth is calibrated exogenously to the yield growth assumptions derived from ifpri's impact model. the pe models do not have the option of including total factor productivity changes. there is anecdotal evidence of autonomous changes in farm practices that are not picked up by the ge models, but that could neutralize the impact of climate change on productivity of factors other than land in agriculture--for example, changes in the timing of planting and harvesting. the ge models pick up endogenous adaptation that is a result of changes in relative (efficient) prices; that is, the de facto rise in the price of land (in efficiency terms) leads to an increase in the demand for other inputs such as labor and capital; the degree of which is determined by the underlying factor substitution elasticities. nonetheless, the question of how to implement exogenous factor productivity remains an open empirical issue that can be treated with additional sensitivity analysis (such as applying the shock to agricultural tfp) and through focused econometric research.
what does climate change poses?
climate change poses a serious threat to sustainable urban development and places many cities at risk
what has been done by many cities to cope up with climate change?
to date few cities have developed comprehensive models for climate change adaptation
what is needed for inherent part of urban planning practice?
it is argued that a sustainable transformation of this kind can only be achieved if adaptation becomes an inherent part of urban planning practice, which requires the use of a set of mainstreaming strategies
climate change poses a serious threat to sustainable urban development and places many cities at risk. city authorities are increasingly faced with the challenge of finding ways to include adaptation strategies into their work. however, to date few cities have developed comprehensive models for climate change adaptation. this paper contributes to knowledge development on local adaptation planning through a critical review and comparison of theoretical and practical approaches. theory suggests that resilient cities can only be achieved if adaptation planning includes measures that address all risk factors. at the same time, planning must target not only the characteristic physical features of the urban fabric, but also related environmental, socio-cultural, economic and political aspects, which can turn cities into risk hotspots. it is argued that a sustainable transformation of this kind can only be achieved if adaptation becomes an inherent part of urban planning practice, which requires the use of a set of mainstreaming strategies. this can lead to both incremental and transformative actions; that is: improving existing risk reduction approaches to maintain system functions and, if necessary, provoking systemic change for long-term sustainability. however, this review of current practice demonstrates a different reality. hardly any of the examined city authorities combined the range of possible adaptation measures, and mainstreaming consisted of single actions rather than taking a comprehensive approach. 20
What is knowledge the second proposition ?
is that adaptation need not be limited by uncertainties associated with foresight of future climate change
What is the fourth proposition ?
that systematic undervaluation of involuntary loss of places and culture disguises real, experienced but subjective limits to adaptation
What is the diversoty of values ?
may often lead to a paralysis of adaptation actions, such as failure to introduce or change regulatory incentives
knowledge the second proposition is that adaptation need not be limited by uncertainties associated with foresight of future climate change. uncertainties in the context of climate change may relate to the provisional nature of scientific knowledge about future climates or about the contested nature and status of such scientific foresight. different social and organisational cultures, and sub-cultures, approach foresight in different ways. these differences in the status of knowledge claims about future climate reveal differences in values and make problematic the delineation of any limit to adaptation to climate change but can have an important bearing on the way in which adaptation decisions are made. we argue, however, that methods of assessing robust adaptations can provide opportunities for overcoming any perceived limits imposed by uncertainties in future foresight. risk the third proposition is that social and individual factors limit adaptation action. factors such as perception of risk, habit, social status and age operate at individual decision-making levels but also constrain collective action. individual adaptation hinges on whether an impact, anticipated or experienced, is perceived as a risk and whether it should (and could) be acted upon. at the policy level, adaptation policies, like many other areas of public policy, are constrained by inertia, cultures of risk denial, and other phenomena well known in policy sciences. we suggest that individual and social characteristics, in particular risk perception, interact with underlying values to form subjective and mutable limits to adaptation that currently hinder society's ability to act. such limits could preclude adaptation at societal scales. culture the fourth proposition is that systematic undervaluation of involuntary loss of places and culture disguises real, experienced but subjective limits to adaptation. this proposition is based on the observation that cultural assets are unique in place and time. hence many impacts result in loss of assets sometimes irreversible that individuals value. this proposition also raises the issue of values that are largely independent of material assets, but rather rely on perceptions and representations of the world around us. this issue is under-researched and needs to be explored further, not least because culture is not static--all cultures and places change over time--and because what is deemed to have intrinsic social value also changes over time. these four propositions are explored in detail in the following sections. 3 proposition 1: any limits to adaptation depend on the goals of adaptation, which are themselves dependent on diverse values our first proposition about the limits to adaptation emerges from considerations about the goals of adaptation and the nature of decision-making around climate change adaptation, in particular considerations about the diversity and often incommensurability of values which adaptation agents possess that underpin these goals. this diversity of values may often lead to a paralysis of adaptation actions, such as failure to introduce or change regulatory incentives, or lead to contradictory outcomes, such as actions which simultaneously yet differentially enhance and reduce resilience in communities. we address the question of values, and hence understand the origin of the problem, by first looking at the scale and agency of adaptation decision-making and then by exploring the goals of adaptation.
There is no significant trend in annual discharge averaged for all tributaries with glaciers. What does that imply?
glacier melt enhancement is not discernable on an annual basis below a threshold amount of glacier coverage
What does the significant p 0.004) correlation between annual discharge and regional mean air temperature over the same time suggest?
streamflow responds rapidly to regional-scale climatic forcing
In the same glaciated watersheds, dry season (May- October) stream discharge increased significantly until the early 1980s but since 1983 has declined considerably (Figure 4). What does this indicate?
glacier melt water buffers discharge only temporarily in local watersheds, and future dry season streamflow is likely to decline further
shifts in regional water resources glacier-fed stream discharge from the cordillera blanca correlates strongly with climate changes, but the magnitude of glacier melt influence is scale dependent. streams draining the two watersheds with greatest amounts of glacier coverage (glacial 20% of watershed by area, n 2) experienced a significant increase p 0.023) in average annual discharge over the forty-three-year period of historical records (figure 3). however, there is no significant trend in annual discharge averaged for all tributaries with glaciers n 7), implying that glacier melt enhancement is not discernable on an annual basis below a threshold amount of glacier coverage. a significant p 0.004) correlation between annual discharge and regional mean air temperature over the same time suggests that streamflow responds rapidly to regional-scale climatic forcing. in the same glaciated watersheds, dry season (may- october) stream discharge increased significantly until the early 1980s but since 1983 has declined considerably (figure 4). this change in trend indicates that glacier melt water buffers discharge only temporarily in local watersheds, and future dry season streamflow is likely to decline further. on the santa river scale, discharge draining the entire callej'on de huaylas watershed 10 percent glacier coverage) at la balsa has declined
How are warming and threshold risk related?
this distribution recognizes that more warming imposes more threshold risk, and learning implies that a given increment of warming carries greater threshold risk when the world is already warmer. the uniform distribution for ~ t means that every temperature between the maximum temperature previously reached and an upper bound - t has an equal chance of being the threshold
How was probability distribution first represented according to this article?
the closest the scientific literature comes to a probability distribution for thresholds are color-coded diagrams indicating the risks posed by different temperatures (smith et al., 2009) and sets of probability intervals elicited from experts (kriegle
the closest the scientific literature comes to a probability distribution for thresholds are color-coded diagrams indicating the risks posed by different temperatures (smith et al., 2009) and sets of probability intervals elicited from experts (kriegler et al., 2009). absent more guidance from the scientific literature, we decided to use a uniform prior distribution. this distribution recognizes that more warming imposes more threshold risk, and learning implies that a given increment of warming carries greater threshold risk when the world is already warmer. the uniform distribution for ~ t means that every temperature between the maximum temperature previously reached and an upper bound - t has an equal chance of being the threshold.11in our base case model runs, we use - t 4 27*c so that the year 2005 expected value for the threshold is 2.5*c.12sensitivity analyses vary - t between 3*c and 9*c, implying year 2005 expected values of about 1.9*c to 4.9*c. the probability of crossing the threshold between periods t and t 1 conditional on not having crossed the threshold by time t is:13
What is the principal CO2 emission source?
uture scenarios with significant anthropogenic climate change also display large increases in world production of fossil fuels, the principal co2 emission source
Have current models been successful, or have they not?
the current situation, where climate models largely rely on emission scenarios detached from the reality of supply and its inherent problems is problematic
future scenarios with significant anthropogenic climate change also display large increases in world production of fossil fuels, the principal co2 emission source. meanwhile, fossil fuel depletion has also been identified as a future challenge. this chapter reviews the connection between these two issues and concludes that limits to availability of fossil fuels will set a limit for mankind's ability to affect the climate. however, this limit is unclear as various studies have reached quite different conclusions regarding future atmospheric co2 concentrations caused by fossil fuel limitations. it is concluded that the current set of emission scenarios used by the ipcc and others is perforated by optimistic expectations on future fossil fuel production that are improbable or even unrealistic. the current situation, where climate models largely rely on emission scenarios detached from the reality of supply and its inherent problems is problematic. in fact, it may even mislead planners and politicians into making decisions that mitigate one problem but make the other one worse. it is important to understand that the fossil energy problem and the anthropogenic climate change problem are tightly connected and need to be treated as two interwoven challenges necessitating a holistic solution. key words: fossil fuel depletion, emission scenarios, anthropogenic climate change, 2
What does the empirical result include when compared to climate models?
in contrast to climate models, which can only approximate the physical processes and may exclude important processes, the empirical result includes all processes that exist in the real world - and the physics is exact
What would the equilibrium response be if earth were a blackbody without climate feedbacks?
if earth were a blackbody without climate feedbacks the equilibrium response to 4 w/m2 forcing would be about 1.2degc (hansen et al., 1981, 1984
What does the empirical climate sensitivity incorporate?
this empirical climate sensitivity incorporates all fast response feedbacks in the realworld climate system, including changes of water vapor, clouds, aerosols, aerosol effects on clouds, and sea ice
this empirical climate sensitivity incorporates all fast response feedbacks in the realworld climate system, including changes of water vapor, clouds, aerosols, aerosol effects on clouds, and sea ice. in contrast to climate models, which can only approximate the physical processes and may exclude important processes, the empirical result includes all processes that exist in the real world - and the physics is exact. implies an equilibrium climate sensitivity of 5/6.5  3/4 degc for each watt of forcing. the fact that ice sheet and greenhouse gas boundary conditions are actually slow climate feedbacks is irrelevant for the purpose of evaluating the fast-feedback climate sensitivity (hansen et al., 1984; lorius et at., 1990). the sensitivity  3/4 degc per w/m the sensitivity  3/4 degc per w/m2 corresponds to 3degc for doubled co2 forcing (4 w/m2). if earth were a blackbody without climate feedbacks the equilibrium response to 4 w/m2 forcing would be about 1.2degc (hansen et al., 1981, 1984). the water vapor increase and sea ice decrease
Projected heat events were determined for three years, which are they?
2025, 2045 and 2085
Three climate change scenarios were selected for high, moderate and low summer, which are they?
the low scenario chosen was the pcm1-b1 model, the high scenario chosen was the hadcm-a1b model, and the middle scenario was the mean of the two composite models using either the a1b or b1 emissions scenario
Expected monthly temperature deviations in Celsius for each scenario and time period were added to the observed daily temperature and relative humidity distributions, over what periods of time did the study area last?
1970 to 1999
projected heat events were determined for three years: 2025, 2045 and 2085. three climate change scenarios were selected for high, moderate and low summer (may-sept.) warming, for a total of nine modeled future heat regimes. the low scenario chosen was the pcm1-b1 model, the high scenario chosen was the hadcm-a1b model, and the middle scenario was the mean of the two composite models using either the a1b or b1 emissions scenario (salathe et al., 2009, this report). expected monthly temperature deviations in celsius for each scenario and time period were added to the observed daily temperature and relative humidity distributions in each study area from 1970 to 1999; the daily humidex was then calculated for each of the new temperature distributions. historical humidex thresholds at the 99th percentile were applied to the estimated future distributions, and the number and duration of expected heat events in 2025, 2045 and 2085 were calculated for each scenario.
When was the end of the last ice age?
about 14,700 years ago (14.7kyr bp), towards the end of the last ice age
Why is it remarkable that the climate warmed dramatically and abruptly in the North Atlanticby 14,7000 years ago?
this is all the more remarkable because it occurred in the presence of massive ice sheets and continuation of the albedo forcing that presumably had been helping maintain glacial conditions up to that point
How did the Younger Dryas end?
the younger dryas ended with a second abrupt warming, lasting no more than a decade or so, that shifted temperatures back to those of the holocene and of today
about 14,700 years ago (14.7kyr bp), towards the end of the last ice age, the climate warmed dramatically and abruptly around the north atlanticby as much as the difference between full glacial and interglacial conditions in no more than a decade or two. this is all the more remarkable because it occurred in the presence of massive ice sheets and continuation of the albedo forcing that presumably had been helping maintain glacial conditions up to that point. but it was not to last. sometime just after 13kyr bp this bolling/allerod wam period ended as climate first cooled, and then abruptly cooled, into the so-called younger dryas. as near glacial conditions returned, glaciers advanced around europe and the forests that had established themselves in the preceding warm epoch died. the younger dryas ended with a second abrupt warming, lasting no more than a decade or so, that shifted temperatures back to those of the holocene and of today. the idea that the climate system goes through such abrupt shifts did not take the climate research community by storm but dribbled into acceptance in the 1980s and the early 1990s. only when duplicate ice cores said the same thing and the evidence was found in multiple quantities within the ice oxygen isotopes, dust concentrations, snow accumulation and so on and it could be correlated with terrestrial and marine records did acceptance that abrupt climate change was a reality sink in. this gradual acceptance is telling. when hays et al. (1976) showed just how well climate records from deep sea cores could be matched to orbital cycles it was deeply satisfying: the gradual waxing and waning of the great ice sheets could be explained by equally gradual changes in the distribution of delivery of solar radiation to the earth's surface. insolation over high northern latitudes was deemed to be particularly important with reduction in summer leading to retention of winter snow and ice sheet growth. all that remained was to show exactly how the climate system accomplished the necccesary links. almost three decades later we are still far from understanding how orbital changes are converted into ice sheet growth and decay. while this is testimony enough to our limited understanding of the climate system and general circulations, abrupt climate change is now the star witness. in this case the climate changes occurred not only abruptly but, apparently, in the absence of any external forcing. the lack of any theory for how such changes could occur helps explain the gradual acceptance of what the data was saying. paleo.circ february 28, 2005
What contributes to the amplification of Newark's air temperature differences?
higher elevations and greater precipitation
Which two cities are part of the same urban complex?
camden and philadelphia
Why is it that heat islands should not be thought of as urban cores surrounded by concentric circles with decreasing temperatures?
the circles expand outward
in contrast, newark's combination of higher elevations and greater precipitation in the suburbs as compared to the city proper may amplify the magnitude of the air temperature differences there. the inclusion of audubon as a nonurban station also dampened the urban- nonurban temperature difference for camden. removing audubon, the average magnitude of minimum temperature differences in camden is 1.5 1 c. another major consideration in camden is the use of the philadelphia airport station as a proxy for camden proper (see footnote 3). camden and philadelphia are both part of the same urban complex. as is clear from the satellite images, heat islands should not be thought of as urban cores surrounded by concentric circles with decreasing temperatures as the circles expand outward. rather, heat islands can be more accurately described as
What is water pollution?
water pollution is the addition of substances or energy forms that directly or indirectly alter the nature of the water body in such a manner that negatively affects its legitimate uses this definition is essentially practical and, as a consequence, potentially controversial, because of the fact that it associates pollution with negative alterations and with water body uses, concepts that are attributed by human beings
What are the main pollutants of domestic sewage?
for domestic sewage, which is the main focus of this book, the main pollutants are: suspended solids biodegradable organic matter nutrients and pathogenic organisms
What are the solutions to the pollutants?
the solution to most of these problems, especially biodegradable organic matter and pathogens, has been reached in many developed regions which are now concentrated on the removal of nutrients and micro-pollutants, together with substantial attention to the pollution caused by storm-water drainage
water pollution is the addition of substances or energy forms that directly or indirectly alter the nature of the water body in such a manner that negatively affects its legitimate uses this definition is essentially practical and, as a consequence, potentially controversial, because of the fact that it associates pollution with negative alterations and with water body uses, concepts that are attributed by human beings. however, this practical view is important, principally when analysing the control measures for pollution reduction table 1.2 lists the main pollutants and their source, together with the most representative effects. chapter 2 covers in detail the main parameters, which characterise the quality of a wastewater (second column in the table). for domestic sewage, which is the main focus of this book, the main pollutants are: suspended solids biodegradable organic matter nutrients and pathogenic organisms their impact in the water body is analysed in detail in chapter 3. the solution to most of these problems, especially biodegradable organic matter and pathogens, has been reached in many developed regions which are now concentrated on the removal of nutrients and micro-pollutants, together with substantial attention to the pollution caused by storm-water drainage. in developing
Where have farmers practiced agriculture and what have they developed?
farmers have practiced agriculture virtually in almost all climatic zones on earth and have developed a rich tapestry of human e environment relations
What does history shows?
history shows that farmers and their supporting institutions have been successful in introducing technological measures to respond and adapt to environmental and socioeconomic challenges
What is the role of technology in adaptation?
the role of technology in adaptation to climate change is even more crucial in developing countries where food security remain a struggle for signi fi cant portion of the population and impending climate change is expected to make it even worse
farmers have practiced agriculture virtually in almost all climatic zones on earth and have developed a rich tapestry of human e environment relations. history shows that farmers and their supporting institutions have been successful in introducing technological measures to respond and adapt to environmental and socioeconomic challenges. variation in climatic resources, across space and time, has also spurred innovations in agricultural technologies and has been an integral part of agricultural development brush turner, 1987 ). however, the numerous factors that drives innovation makes it extremely dif fi cult to detect and attribute the impacts that climate has on agricultural technology. yet understanding the interaction between farmers and their supporting institutions is a useful precursor to understanding the importance of technology in the process of adaptation to climate change. in the future innovation and deployment of agricultural technologies will largely shape how well farmers adapt to climate change. the role of technology in adaptation to climate change is even more crucial in developing countries where food security remain a struggle for signi fi cant portion of the population and impending climate change is expected to make it even worse. a large body of literature establishes that capacity to respond to changing climate depends on knowledge fl ow through a broad range of institutions including farmers ' interactions among themselves and with vulnerable communities agrawal, 2008 and the ability of private, public, and civil society institutions to act collectively at multiple scales adger, huq, brown, conway and hulme, 2003; lasco, cruz, pulhin, pulhin, 2006 ). innovation of technologies at the local level is crucial for enhancing adaptive capacity of farmers. some of this knowledge is tacit, demanding interaction between farmers, operating at a speci fi c climatic
What can cause climate change? Can cause physical and structural impacts
adaptation usually refers to structural adaptations made to address current and impending physical impacts of climate change
For whom is the structural, physical and imminent adaptation of climate change important? For climate scientists
for climate scientists, adaptation usually refers to structural adaptations made to address current and impending physical impacts of climate change
Who defined psychological adaptation? American Psychological Association (APA)
adaptation has been defined in a task force report by the american psychological association (apa
for climate scientists, adaptation usually refers to structural adaptations made to address current and impending physical impacts of climate change, such as building a sea wall in anticipation of rising sea levels. however, psychological adaptation also occurs. adaptation has been defined in a task force report by the american psychological association (apa)6as 'a wide range of responses individuals can make to difficult circumstances including initial understandings, affective responses to situations, behavioral responses to situations, the process of selecting responses, and the reciprocating impacts of responses on individuals, communities, and the physical environment'6(p. 98). psychological adaptation may also be maladaptive, as when the threat is artificially reduced by choosing one or more of the barriers described below,18
How is the aerobic sludge is recirculated?
the aerobic sludge is recirculated in the usual manner, that is, from the bottom of the secondary sedimentation tank to the entrance of the aerobic reactor
What is used instead of the primary sedimentation tank?
the anaerobic reactor is used instead of the primary sedimentation
when the activated sludge system acts as post-treatment of anaerobic effluents, the anaerobic reactor is used instead of the primary sedimentation tank (which is an integral part of the conventional activated sludge system). the aerobic sludge is recirculated in the usual manner, that is, from the bottom of the secondary sedimentation tank to the entrance of the aerobic reactor (aeration tank). the excess aerobic sludge generated in the activated sludge stage, not yet stabilised, is sent to the uasb reactor, where it undergoes thickening and digestion, together with the anaerobic sludge. as the return flow of the excess aerobic sludge is very low compared with the influent flow, there are no operational disturbances in the uasb reactor. the sludge treatment is largely simplified: there is no need for
What does EU ETS stand for?
european union emissions trading scheme
in this section of the paper we examine in detail precisely how accountants are engaging with climate change. we first provide a brief early history of carbon accounting (in the period from the late 1990s to 2005, termed 'stage one'), exploring how climate change first became a practical issue for financial accountants with the advent of the european union emissions trading scheme (eu ets), and demonstrating how at the time these financial carbon accounting activities bore little connections with wider (prevalent) debates about valuing the environment. second, we assess the recent engagement of accountants with climate change (stage two - 2005 to present). we examine the positioning of accounting as the natural professional home of carbon management, both in terms of how climate change has been defined by accountants, and the accounting technologies and techniques used to do this (how climate change has been 'rendered technical' by the profession).
where did a torrent of water fall from?
in december 2011, a torrent of water fell from the sky in golden bay and nelson, overwhelming local streams and inundating the landscape with mud and debris
When the atmospheric river collided with the coastal hills of Golden Bay and Nelson, what was the ammont recorded  in 24 hours?
when this "atmospheric river" collided with the coastal hills of golden bay and nelson, the rainfall amounts were staggering--in the township of takaka 453 mm was recorded in just 24 hours and 674 mm in 48 hours
why was the event caused?
the event was unusual due to its rare combination of high humidity in the lower atmosphere accompanied by only moderate winds (doyle and harvey 2012). a stationary high east of new zealand also played a key role in slowing the progress of the deep low
in december 2011, a torrent of water fell from the sky in golden bay and nelson, overwhelming local streams and inundating the landscape with mud and debris. barren scars of earth littered the hillsides of the region, a testimony to the power of the event (see supplementary figures). the culprit was a low-pressure weather system that transported moist air directly from the subtropics to new zealand (fig. 20.1a and supplementary animation). when this "atmospheric river" collided with the coastal hills of golden bay and nelson, the rainfall amounts were staggering--in the township of takaka 453 mm was recorded in just 24 hours and 674 mm in 48 hours. this greatly exceeds any previous record at this site, and from the available observations, it has been estimated that the 48-hour total is a one in 500-year event. the event was also the largest 48-hour accumulation ever recorded in an urban area in new zealand. strikingly, the rain fell predominantly on coastal hills within 2 km-5 km of the coast (all <500 m elevation), such that none of the major rivers with headwaters in the mountains reached extreme flood levels. such high rainfall in coastal areas is damaging, predominantly because of higher population density. the event was unusual due to its rare combination of high humidity in the lower atmosphere accompanied by only moderate winds (doyle and harvey 2012). a stationary high east of new zealand also played a key role in slowing the progress of the deep low.
What is the first reason to use fisheries landings?
first, using catch value would have overweighted the significance of exportled fisheries in relation to fisheries that supply domestic markets, which are generally more important for the well-being and socioecological resilience of local fishing communities
What is the second reason to use fisheries landings/
second, the monetary value of exports is in any case incorporated elsewhere in the index of dependence
fisheries production could be represented using either capture fisheries landings (i.e. excluding discards) or catch value. we chose to use fisheries landings for two reasons. first, using catch value would have overweighted the significance of exportled fisheries in relation to fisheries that supply domestic markets, which are generally more important for the well-being and socioecological resilience of local fishing communities (pauly and maclean 2003; sadovy 2005). second, the monetary value of exports is in any case incorporated elsewhere in the index of dependence (see below). catch landings for coastal and inland waters were summed across edible fishes, crustaceans and molluscs, and excluding non-edible organisms such as algae, amphibians, aquatic mammals, corals, reptiles, shells and sponges (http://faostat.fao.org/). annual fisheryrelated export value (us$) was the sum of exports and re-exports of fishery products fit for human consumption for each country, averaged over 1998-2001 (http://faostat.fao.org/), and expressed as a proportion of total revenues derived from exports of all goods and services, averaged over the same 4-year period (anonymous, 2003). the fao
According to the reading, what is one factor that can lead to drought stress and negative consequences for forest growth?
warming-induced decreases in snowpack and increases in evapotranspiration are expected to increase the fre quency and intensity of drought stress, with negative consequences for forest growth and health
According to the reading, why is the future of water availablilty is uncertain?
future water availabil ity is uncertain because it will depend on the net effects of rainfall, snowfall, snowmelt, surface runoff, subsurface flow, and evapo transpiration
the climate is expected to change throughout this century. in the nw, the direct positive effects of warmer temperatures and elevated [c02 1 will be realized in only a limited set of environ ments that do not experience increased droughts, heat stress, or nutrient limitations. warming-induced decreases in snowpack and increases in evapotranspiration are expected to increase the fre quency and intensity of drought stress, with negative consequences for forest growth and health. areas that are moisture limited are particularly vulnerable. in the nw, this includes low-elevations in the northern sierra nevada, klamath mountains, siskyou mountains, blue mountains, wallowa mountains, steens mountain; columbia highlands, northern rocky mountains, and eastern foothills of the cascade range (arno, 1979; franklin and dyrness, 1988; west and young, 2000; littell et ai., 2008). in areas where limitations by soil moisture and tempera ture are low (e.g., much of the coast range, olympic mountains, and mid-elevations in the cascade range), future water availabil ity is uncertain because it will depend on the net effects of rainfall, snowfall, snowmelt, surface runoff, subsurface flow, and evapo transpiration.
What did researchers hope to learn about cable news audiences?
research question 1 was concerned with whether audiences' political predispositions bias the way that they process cable news--such that republican viewers would be more likely to accept the global warming messages presented on fox news and to reject those on cnn and msnbc, with the reverse true for democrats--or if the relationship between cable news viewing and global warming acceptance follows a pattern more consistent with direct persuasion
Which television channels did the researchers focus on?
in order to address this question, the interactions between political partisanship and fox news and cnn/msnbc viewing, respectively, were tested
What did the researchers learn about Democrats in the study?
a cross-tabulation further feldman et al. 17 reveals that nearly 42 percent of democrats watch fox sometimes or often
research question 1 was concerned with whether audiences' political predispositions bias the way that they process cable news--such that republican viewers would be more likely to accept the global warming messages presented on fox news and to reject those on cnn and msnbc, with the reverse true for democrats--or if the relationship between cable news viewing and global warming acceptance follows a pattern more consistent with direct persuasion. in order to address this question, the interactions between political partisanship and fox news and cnn/msnbc viewing, respectively, were tested. it is first important to note, however, that although viewership of cable news outlets is driven by partisan selectivity, the audiences for fox, cnn, and msnbc are not monolithic. indeed, in our sample, there are only moderate bivariate correlations between political partisanship and both fox news use r .195; p .001) and cnn/msnbc use r -.228; p .001). a cross-tabulation further feldman et al. 17 reveals that nearly 42 percent of democrats watch fox sometimes or often and 17 percent of republicans watch cnn and msnbc sometimes or often. thus, there is sufficient cross-viewership to permit an exploration of how audiences respond to cable networks that are not aligned with their political predispositions. the interactions between cable news use and political partisanship were tested by examining both the r2 change and the coefficients of the interaction effects in a hierarchical regression. step 1 entered all variables included in model 1 of table 2. step 2
According to the article, are the main challenges of the decentralization reform?
how to deal with land-use conflicts remains one of the key challenges of the decentralization reform
In French Sudan, who were the only formally recognized landowners?
in french sudan, the state and individuals with title deeds were the only formally recognized landowners
When and who recognized property rights only in the case of individual property titles?
after independence, as a heritage from colonial law, the land code of 1986 acknowledged property rights only in the case of individually held title deeds
however, how to deal with land-use conflicts remains one of the key challenges of the decentralization reform. in french sudan, the state and individuals with title deeds were the only formally recognized landowners. after independence, as a heritage from colonial law, the land code of 1986 acknowledged property rights only in the case of individually held title deeds. customary rights were defined as use rights with a much weaker status than titled land. in 2000, the land code of 1986 was replaced by a land ordinance.1however, this new law remains focused on 'mise en valeur'2and does not address pastoral land tenure and its various challenges. the livestock policy of 2004 is also largely focused on modernization of the livestock industry and, for instance, neglects land-use conflicts as an issue. a number of reports hold that in recent years the delta has been marked by numerous land-use conflicts (barrie`re barrie`re, 2002; benjaminsen ba, 2009; cotula cisse', 2006). given the area's sensitivity to rainfall fluctuations and its dependence on the seasonal flooding of the niger river, one might surmise that the high frequency of land disputes in part reflects a decline in the water level in the river. a possible, and often repeated, scenario in mali is that declining water levels lead to less land available for rice cultivation and burgu pastures, which in turn leads to more land-use competition, especially between farming and pastoralism. however, lack of systematic data on such conflicts has prevented a systematic comparison of trends in conflict and climate.
Where will the team obtain estimates about the sea ice from?
the team will obtain estimates of the location, amount, and motion of sea ice from the advance microwave scanning radiometer on nasa's latest aqua satellite platform
What do preliminary results suggest?
preliminary results suggest a correspondence between the estimated along-strait winds and satellite measurements of ice motion through the strait
How is an estimate of local winds calculated?
the steep topography rimming nares strait steers winds along the channel. a regional atmospheric model takes advantage of this steering effect to estimate local winds from daily analyses of the large-scale atmospheric state
the team will obtain estimates of the location, amount, and motion of sea ice from the advance microwave scanning radiometer on nasa's latest aqua satellite platform, which can "see" the sea ice surface through clouds and during the dark winter months, and compare the satellite data with information from moorings in nares strait, jones sound, and lancaster sound. the steep topography rimming nares strait steers winds along the channel. a regional atmospheric model takes advantage of this steering effect to estimate local winds from daily analyses of the large-scale atmospheric state. preliminary results suggest a correspondence between the estimated along-strait winds and satellite measurements of ice motion through the strait. in conjunction with other research activities in the region, expendable ctds are being deployed whenever possible. the project team plans to retrieve the 2003 moorings, download their data, and refurbish and redeploy them via aircraft operating out of a camp in greenland in spring 2005, with recovery planned for spring 2007. tentative plans include a canadiansponsored ship-based repeat tracer hydrographic survey in the region in 2006. for more information, see the project web site: http://newark.cms.udel.edu/~cats or contact kelly falkner (541-737-3625; kfalkner@coas.oregonstate.edu). for more information on the coordinated canadian archipelago to labrador sea efforts, see the asof-west web site: http://asofw.apl. washington.edu
What are the two basic mechanisms for methane formation?
there are two basic mechanisms for methane formation: (i) cleavage of acetic acid and (ii) reduction of carbon dioxide
In the absence of what element does cleavage of acetic acid leads to the formation of methane and carbon dioxide?
in the absence of hydrogen
although the individual pathways involved in methane formation are not completely established yet, substantial progress in their understanding has been made in the past decades. some methanogenic species are capable of using just hydrogen and carbon dioxide for their growth and methane formation, while others are capable of using formic acid, which is previously converted into hydrogen and carbon dioxide. at least two methanosarcina species are capable of forming methane from methanol or acetic acid. there are two basic mechanisms for methane formation: (i) cleavage of acetic acid and (ii) reduction of carbon dioxide. these mechanisms can be described as principles of anaerobic digestion 671 follows. in the absence of hydrogen, cleavage of acetic acid leads to the formation of methane and carbon dioxide. the methyl group of the acetic acid is reduced to methane, while the carboxylic group is oxidised to carbon dioxide: c*h3cooh = c*h4 co2 (24.1)
Is there any relation between service climate and service quality?
service climate captures employees' consensual perceptions of organizations' emphasis on service quality
What are the other find outs of the study?
in addition, we found differential effects of service-oriented versus general human resource practices and leadership on service climate, as well as disparate impacts of service climate contingent on types of service, measures of service climate, and sources of rating. research and practical implications are discussed
service climate captures employees' consensual perceptions of organizations' emphasis on service quality. although many studies have examined the foundation issues and outcomes of service climate, there is a lack of a comprehensive model explicating the antecedents, outcomes, and moderators of service climate. the current study fills this void in the literature. by conducting a meta-analysis of 58 independent samples n  9,363), we found support for service climate as a critical linkage between internal and external service parameters. in addition, we found differential effects of service-oriented versus general human resource practices and leadership on service climate, as well as disparate impacts of service climate contingent on types of service, measures of service climate, and sources of rating. research and practical implications are discussed. keywords: service climate, service profit chain, leadership, human resource practices, meta-analysis
What is the characteristic feature of decay phase?
the availability of the substrate in the medium is reduced
In bacteria, what is used as substrate source in decay phase?
use their own cellular protoplasm as a substrate source
How is the death rate of bacteria in decay phase?
the death rate is exponential and constant
decline or decay phase in the decline or decay phase, the availability of the substrate in the medium is reduced. in these conditions, endogenous respiration prevails, and the bacteria are forced to use their own cellular protoplasm as a substrate source. the dying cells allow their nutrients to diffuse into the medium, serving as food to other cells. the death rate is exponential and constant, leading to a straight line on the logarithmic scale. as already mentioned, it is important to emphasise that this representation of the growth regards a single population of microorganisms growing at the expense of a single type of substrate. in reality, in the biological reactor of a sewage treatment works, there is a variety of microorganisms metabolising a variety of compounds.hence,therewillbeanoverlappingofvariouscurvesofdifferentformsand types, developing at different times. this interaction characterises the ecology of wastewater treatment, covered in chapter 7. the design and operation of a sewage treatment plant uses these concepts of bacterial growth to place the operation inside a desired range. a generalisation is difficult due to the large variety of microorganisms and substrates that occur in practice, but the following tendencies can be observed:
What does Figure 4 show?
figure 4 shows the linear regression of the storm track responses on the equator-to-pole temperature difference responses b from equation 2) for each of the temperature differences
How do the storm track increase in these regions?
in these regions the storm track increases with the equator-to-pole temperature difference response
What is found in both hemispheres?
in both hemispheres there are large regions of positive regression slope
to assess the relationship between the responses of the equator-to-pole temperature differences and the responses of the storm tracks, figure 4 shows the linear regression of the storm track responses on the equator-to-pole temperature difference responses b from equation 2) for each of the temperature differences. in both hemispheres there are large regions of positive regression slope. in these regions the storm track increases with the equator-to-pole temperature difference response. this sign of relationship is consistent with the storm track responses being driven by the responses of the baroclinicity, consistent with the study of hwang et al. (2011). the only regions 12
How has climate impacted farmers?
part of the way forward for farmers will be to ensure their capacity to adapt is not impaired
What are farmers going to do about climate impact?
hence, there will be an on-going need for r&d and innovation that ensures farmers have a maintained capacity to profitably engage in farm production
How do regions differ in effect?
where it may be increasingly relevant to another region yet the means to credibly transfer the knowledge may be lacking
excludes death and injury costs. source: bte (2001). the way forward for farmers because the future profitability of many farm businesses will depend on their ability to respond to climate change and its associated climate variability, part of the way forward for farmers will be to ensure their capacity to adapt is not impaired. hence, there will be an on-going need for r&d and innovation that ensures farmers have a maintained capacity to profitably engage in farm production in the face of an environment often less conducive to agricultural production. in the face of climate change, particularly where it is rapid, the value of knowledge from climate-related regionally-specific r&d will be eroded, increasing uncertainty surrounding farmers' decisionmaking. in some cases this previous or existing knowledge could be a stranded asset where it may be increasingly relevant to another region yet the means to credibly transfer the knowledge may be lacking. in the presence of climate change, farmers' need for regionally-relevant climaterelated r&d and innovation is likely to increase due to the erosion of the value of previous knowledge and innovation.
What is the city blueprint?
the city blueprint provides municipalities and regions with a practical and broad framework to define steps towards realizing a more sustainable and resilient water cycle in collaboration with key stakeholders
What does the city blueprint offer?
the city blueprint offers cities a threefold benefit: (1) an interactive quick scan of their own water cycle, (2) access to best practices in other cities (koop et al. 2015 and (3) participation in an international platform
Where did the idea for a city blueprint come from?
this initiative has been scaled up to an action under the flag of the european innovation partnership on water of the european commission (european commission 2015a in the framework of the european blueprint for water (european commission 2012 
(european commission 2015a ). the city blueprint offers cities a threefold benefit: (1) an interactive quick scan of their own water cycle, (2) access to best practices in other cities (koop et al. 2015 and (3) participation in an international platform (european commission 2015a ). after the completion of the questionnaire, a radar chart of all 25 performance indicators (the city blueprint) and the blue city index (bci) are provided both varying from 0 (concern) to 10 (no concern). this initiative has been scaled up to an action under the flag of the european innovation partnership on water of the european commission (european commission 2015a in the framework of the european blueprint for water (european commission 2012 ). the city blueprint provides municipalities and regions with a practical and broad framework to define steps towards realizing a more sustainable and resilient water cycle in collaboration with key stakeholders.
Which century  to investigated about arctic sea?
the impact on climate of the twenty-first-century decline in the arctic sea ice cover has been investigated
What is the purpose of investigation?
the purpose of this study was to examine the spatial and temporal patterns of change in the climate that might result given a continuing decrease in sea ice, using prescribed sea ice fields from years 1980 to 2100 to force hadam3
Where By get the data?
the sea ice fields were based on satellite passive microwave radiometer data derived with the bootstrap algorithm and contained the observed data from 1980 to 2000
the impact on climate of the twenty-first-century decline in the arctic sea ice cover has been investigated. observations of sea ice in recent decades show an approximately linear decrease in extent, while there have been coherent changes in other environmental fields, such as arctic temperatures and precipitation. the purpose of this study was to examine the spatial and temporal patterns of change in the climate that might result given a continuing decrease in sea ice, using prescribed sea ice fields from years 1980 to 2100 to force hadam3. the sea ice fields were based on satellite passive microwave radiometer data derived with the bootstrap algorithm and contained the observed data from 1980 to 2000. two scenarios of ice decline were used to investigate the climate sensitivity to sea ice; one predicted a moderate decrease (expt1) and the other predicted a more severe reduction (used in expt2 and expt3). during simulations driven with observed sea ice, from 1980 to 2000, annual arctic average sat increases at a rate of 0.16deg  0.06degc per decade, which is
What are the benefits of climate change?
we found that overall climate change would be beneficial to crop productivity, although there are strong regional differences with possible declines in production in the southern us
when did the benefits increased?
the benefits increased in 2090 compared with 2030 for both climate scenarios even though temperature increases were quite high by 2090 in the cc case
What does the result shows?
these results show the danger of attempting to summarize the impacts of climate change as a simple function of global mean temperature or to characterize losses from climate change as increasing over time
we investigated the impacts of climate change and the direct yield-enhancing effects of rising concentrations of atmospheric co2 on u.s. agriculture using two recent gcm-derived scenarios. we found that overall climate change would be beneficial to crop productivity, although there are strong regional differences with possible declines in production in the southern us. the benefits increased in 2090 compared with 2030 for both climate scenarios even though temperature increases were quite high by 2090 in the cc case. these results show the danger of attempting to summarize the impacts of climate change as a simple function of global mean temperature or to characterize losses from climate change as increasing over time. further work should investigate the results from a broader set of climate models with varying rates of change in forcing to better understand the uncertainty that exists in such forecasts.
Where are aerosol sources ubiquitous?
aerosol sources (described in more detail below) are ubiquitous on and over the earth's surface, spanning deserts, oceans, forests, grasslands, and areas of human habitation
What are the processes to remove aerosols from the atmosphere?
aerosols are removed from the atmosphere by two processes: wet and dry deposition
What are the wet deposition processes associated with?
wet deposition processes are associated with precipitation and are very efficient at removing most aerosols
aerosol sources (described in more detail below) are ubiquitous on and over the earth's surface, spanning deserts, oceans, forests, grasslands, and areas of human habitation. aerosols are removed from the atmosphere by two processes: wet and dry deposition. wet deposition processes are associated with precipitation and are very efficient at removing most aerosols (18). aerosols may be incorporated within a forming cloud droplet, collide with a cloud droplet already formed within the cloud, or may be hit by falling rain or ice particles below the cloud itself. many cloud droplets evaporate, allowing the aerosols inside them to remain in the atmosphere, though possibly with their
On which continents can the Apis mellifera species be found?
the apis mellifera species, whose distribution range extends to sub-saharan africa, northern europe and central asia
What actions could help honey bees survive in new biotopes?
migration and changes in their lifecycle and behaviour could help them to survive in new biotopes
How important is the genetic variability of honey bees to their adaptation to climate changes?
as the honey bee's genetic variability will be crucial to its adaptation
bees of the apis genus are distributed throughout the world in highly diverse climates. the apis mellifera species, whose distribution range extends to sub-saharan africa, northern europe and central asia, is found in a wide variety of environments, including the oases of the african desert, the alps, the fringes of the tundra and the mists of the united kingdom. its ecotypes have adapted remarkably well to their biotopes. the other honey bee species of the apis genus are distributed around asia, particularly tropical south-east asia (33). climate change estimations predict upheavals in certain regions of the world a few decades from now, with encroaching deserts, a retreating icecap, snowmelt, changing rainfall patterns and a greater frequency of extreme climate events generally. a change in climatic conditions is bound to have an impact on the survival of these ecotypes or of honey bee species that are closely associated with their environment. migration and changes in their lifecycle and behaviour could help them to survive in new biotopes. as the honey bee's genetic variability will be crucial to its adaptation, we would do well to ensure that we preserve this genetic variability. honey bees will also need to adapt to a whole array of predators, parasites and pathogens surrounding them. not only will the relationships between hosts and parasites change, honey bees will have to cope with new stresses arising from trade-facilitated transfers of pathogens among honey bee species. in such a context, climate change could create new opportunities for establishing honey bees in undreamt-of regions or habitats.
What may other decision paradigms be able to do better?
however, there exist other decision paradigms (table 1) that may be better able to embrace the uncertainties of climate change (and better align with the messy realities of decision support
What are examples of other approach variants?
one particular class of such approaches, with variants such as 'robust decision making (rdm),' 'decision scaling (ds),' 'assess risk of policy,' 'info-gap,' and 'context-first
What do approach variants such as 'Robust Decision Making (RDM) provide an opportunity for?
provides an opportunity to overcome the deficiencies of prediction-based frameworks in deciding how to respond to long-term climate change
they also exacerbate the difficulty of getting diverse stakeholders to agree in advance on the predictions (and probabilities) that are the prerequisites for the decision, while incentivizing particular stakeholders to focus on those predictions and uncertainties most consistent with their interests and world views. however, there exist other decision paradigms (table 1) that may be better able to embrace the uncertainties of climate change (and better align with the messy realities of decision support). one particular class of such approaches, with variants such as 'robust decision making (rdm),' 'decision scaling (ds),' 'assess risk of policy,' 'info-gap,' and 'context-first,' provides an opportunity to overcome the deficiencies of prediction-based frameworks in deciding how to respond to long-term climate change.90,92,95-107
What is mostly true of mast-seeding plants in warm spring and summer?
mast-seeding plants often produce high seed crops the year after a warm spring or summer, but the warmtemperature model has inconsistent predictive ability
What does the discover explain?
this discovery explains how masting species tailor their flowering patterns to sites across altitudinal temperature gradients; predicts that masting will be unaffected by increasing mean temperatures under climate change; improves prediction of impacts on seed consumers; demonstrates that strongly masting species are hypersensitive to climate; explains the rarity of consecutive high-seed years without invoking resource constraints; and generates hypotheses about physiological mechanisms in plants and insect seed predators
How many data sets are provided?
we show for 26 long-term data sets
mast-seeding plants often produce high seed crops the year after a warm spring or summer, but the warmtemperature model has inconsistent predictive ability. here, we show for 26 long-term data sets from five plant families that the temperature difference between the two previous summers d t) better predicts seed crops. this discovery explains how masting species tailor their flowering patterns to sites across altitudinal temperature gradients; predicts that masting will be unaffected by increasing mean temperatures under climate change; improves prediction of impacts on seed consumers; demonstrates that strongly masting species are hypersensitive to climate; explains the rarity of consecutive high-seed years without invoking resource constraints; and generates hypotheses about physiological mechanisms in plants and insect seed predators. for plants, d t has many attributes of an ideal cue. this temperature-difference model clarifies our understanding of mast seeding under environmental change, and could also be applied to other cues, such as rainfall. keywords climate cue, global warming, mast flowering, predator satiation, predictive model, wind pollination.
How effective is the method?
bayesian parameter estimation method
What was the overall outcome of the observation?
output and the observations
What influence these unknown parameters?
unknown parameters
we use a bayesian parameter estimation method. in order to be able to evaluate the likelihood of observations given the unknown parameters l y | q ), we need a statistical model that defines the relationship between the model (and the emulator) output and the observations. we refer to the emulator output by ~ f t k( q (for time t tracer k and parameter combination q ). the observations are denoted by yt k. we denote each observational time series by yk y1, k, ... ynk, k where nk is the number of observations for tracer k the set of all observations is referred to as y yt, yohc). we assume that the discrepancy between the emulator and the observations is due to the time constant bias bk and time-varying error t k. thus, our statistical model is:
Mention 2 reasons why debates about climate change are useful
first, since climate change policy necessarily raises ethical questions, it is logical to examine these directly. we may be better able to consider the implications of policy choices if the underlying ethical frameworks of these choices are clearly identified. second, an applied ethics approach focuses on the reasoning behind our options and eventual choices, even if this reasoning is not explicit in policy design. it also provides us with clear language for discussing this reasoning
How helpful is identifying ideal frameworks based on our best reasoning of what we ought to do?
identifying ideal frameworks based on our best reasoning of what we ought to do may help us craft practical proposals that meet these ideals
Defferentiate between equity and equality
equality and equity are often used synonymously in climate policy literature, but differentiating between them can be useful. the defining element of equality is that parties have the same amount of the good or service in question. equity refers to the process of allocation and captures the idea of treating all impartially in a decision context. the concepts of equity and equality can be at odds with one another. for example, if equality is a goal in a context marked by uneven resource distribution, the allocation process may need to be inequitable
formal ethics debates about climate change are useful for several reasons. first, since climate change policy necessarily raises ethical questions, it is logical to examine these directly. we may be better able to consider the implications of policy choices if the underlying ethical frameworks of these choices are clearly identified. second, an applied ethics approach focuses on the reasoning behind our options and eventual choices, even if this reasoning is not explicit in policy design. it also provides us with clear language for discussing this reasoning. third, an explicit focus on ethics reminds us that we have choices. both policy design and ethics are considerations of what ought to happen; while wildly impractical policy proposals are unlikely to be helpful, identifying ideal frameworks based on our best reasoning of what we ought to do may help us craft practical proposals that meet these ideals. designing climate policy needs to address the interests of a wide range of stakeholders over many centuries. these challenges cannot be met through conventional decision-making approaches (morgan et al., 1999). within the climate policy literature, the terms equity, equality, justice and fairness are often used interchangeably but, because differences between these concepts are used to frame our analysis, we need to briefly establish clarity with regard to terminology. equality and equity are often used synonymously in climate policy literature, but differentiating between them can be useful. the defining element of equality is that parties have the same amount of the good or service in question. equity refers to the process of allocation and captures the idea of treating all impartially in a decision context. the concepts of equity and equality can be at odds with one another. for example, if equality is a goal in a context marked by uneven resource distribution, the allocation process may need to be inequitable. there is no consensus on the difference between fairness and justice. in this article justice is used to refer to the distributive elements of an allocation system in its entirety. however, we also differentiate two particular forms of justice: procedural justice and compensatory justice. procedural justice stresses justice in the distribution process and in this case refers to the representation of all
What is rich in European species?
european species richness of reptiles and amphibians exhibited a strong level of spatial autocorrelation
what would happen over short distance?
over short distances, the species richness of both amphibians and reptiles exhibited coincident patterns (positive autocorrelation), and these patterns tended to decrease with geographic distance
How to quantify the effect of short distance?
 to quantify the effect of short distance spatial autocorrelation in the estimation of p values in regression analyses, we used a sar model. spatial covariance among sampling units was incorporated into model residuals using the inverse of the geographic distances (d) between them, expressed as 1/d2for reptiles, and 1/d3(the value best matching the irregular spatial structure of amphibian species richness
european species richness of reptiles and amphibians exhibited a strong level of spatial autocorrelation (fig. s1). over short distances, the species richness of both amphibians and reptiles exhibited coincident patterns (positive autocorrelation), and these patterns tended to decrease with geographic distance. for reptiles, a steady decrease in spatial autocorrelation is observed, and moran's i autocorrelation coefficients decrease until a high negative spatial autocorrelation for the largest distance classes was observed. amphibian species richness displayed a more irregular spatial structure, and moran's i autocorrelation coefficients stabilised around zero after a geographic distance of ca 1500 km (fig. s1). part of this spatial autocorrelation within the data  especially the long distance spatial autocorrelation  was due to the environmental predictors (''contemporary'' and ''historic'' climate) since the residuals of ols regression (used to separate the contribution of the contemporary and historic climate predictors) only accounted for short distance spatial autocorrelation (i.e. up to 400 km), which was greater for amphibians than for reptiles (fig. s1). to quantify the effect of short distance spatial autocorrelation in the estimation of p values in regression analyses, we used a sar model. spatial covariance among sampling units was incorporated into model residuals using the inverse of the geographic distances (d) between them, expressed as 1/d2for reptiles, and 1/d3(the value best matching the irregular spatial structure of amphibian species richness). in the sar model, including all predictors, partial standardized regression coefficients were significant for contemporary temperature as well as temperature and precipitation stability during the lgm (table 1). effectively, these results indicate that ''historic climate'' contributes to species richness patterns independently of and at least as effectively as contemporary climate. for both reptiles and amphibians, partial slopes of historic temperature stability were steeper than partial slopes for contemporary temperature. contemporary
Who were the commentators on the previous version of the manuscript cited in the text? Answer: Jill Baron and three anonymous reviewers.
we thank jill baron and three anonymous reviewers for timely and insightful comments on an earlier draft of the manuscript
Which groups have provided content for this publication and useful analyzes of previous drafts of the manuscript? Answer: Resource managers and planners from the US Forest Service, National Park Service.
we also thank the many resource managers and planners from the u.s. forest service, national park service, and other organizations who provided valuable content for this publication and helpful reviews of previous drafts
Where did the funds come from for preparing this publication? Answer: A prize.
funding for preparation of this publication was provided by an award from the u.s. forest service global change research program to the westwide climate initiative, and by the u.s. forest service pacific northwest research station, pacific southwest research station, and rocky mountain research station
we thank jill baron and three anonymous reviewers for timely and insightful comments on an earlier draft of the manuscript. we also thank the many resource managers and planners from the u.s. forest service, national park service, and other organizations who provided valuable content for this publication and helpful reviews of previous drafts. participants in "adapting to climate change in national forests: a workshop for resource managers" provided feedback and ideas that greatly improved this publication. we are especially grateful to resource managers at inyo national forest, olympic national forest, shoshone national forest, tahoe national forest, devils postpile national monument, and olympic national park-- dedicated collaborators in adaptation case studies--for their insight on adapting to climate change. ellen eberhardt and crystal raymond assisted with editing the manuscript. funding for preparation of this publication was provided by an award from the u.s. forest service global change research program to the westwide climate initiative, and by the u.s. forest service pacific northwest research station, pacific southwest research station, and rocky mountain research station.
What is meant by Big brother?
large domain
What is meant by Small Brother?
smaller domain
What is the aim of the experimentation 'Big Brother/Little Brother'?
the sensitivity of regional climate modeling to the size of the chosen domain
the sensitivity of regional climate modeling to the size of the chosen domain is an issue of both interest and some controversy. a notable line of study has been the 'big brother/little brother' experimentation.19-22its basic setting is to first run an rcm at high resolution over a large domain (big brother). the results are then low-pass filtered, to remove wavelengths shorter than a certain cut-off threshold, so as to resemble boundary conditions from a global model. the data are then used to force a regional model over a smaller domain (little brother). the underlying idea is that the big brother is the 'right' answer and differences with the little brother are due to the specification of its domain and boundary conditions. an rcm has to be large enough to allow for desired phenomena related to topographic influence and small-scale atmospheric processes to develop, but still sufficiently small so that the flow solution does not deviate too much from the driving model.23,24
According to the passage, what provides an explanation for the asymmetry of the ice ages?
thick ice sheets provide not only a positive feedback, but also the potential for cataclysmic collapse, and thus an explanation for the asymmetry of the ice ages
What comes with global warming?
global warming necessarily accompanies ice sheet loss and decreased surface albedo
What is a factor in the magnitude of global warming?
the magnitude of global warming after melting is initiated, whether by insolation anomaly or otherwise, is limited by ice sheet size. thus, a colder climate with larger ice sheets should have the possibility of a greater sudden warming
thick ice sheets provide not only a positive feedback, but also the potential for cataclysmic collapse, and thus an explanation for the asymmetry of the ice ages. the albedo flip property of ice/water provides a trigger mechanism. if the trigger mechanism is engaged long enough, multiple dynamical feedbacks will cause ice sheet collapse hansen 2005 ). we argue that the required persistence for this trigger mechanism is at most a century, probably less. global warming necessarily accompanies ice sheet loss and decreased surface albedo. global warming, based on both palaeoclimate data and carbon cycle models, is accompanied by increased ghgs. the result is large global warming at terminations. what determines the magnitude of ice melt and thus associated global warming? ice sheet albedo change is not a 'runaway' feedback. continual unforced (chaotic) climate variability initiates ice loss well before global climate gain reaches unity. the magnitude of global warming after melting is initiated, whether by insolation anomaly or otherwise, is limited by ice sheet size. thus, a colder climate with larger ice sheets should have the possibility of a greater sudden warming. data for the past several million years lisiecki raymo 2005 ), during which the planet has been cooling, confirm this characteristic. any given warming depends upon details, including the degree to which ghg positive feedback is brought into play. chaotic behaviour is expected and abundant, but so too is increased amplitude of terminations for cooler climates. climate has been unusually stable during the warm holocene. this may be, at least in part, because the planet is warm enough for the laurentide and fennoscandian ice sheets to be absent, but not warm enough for much reduction in size of antarctica or greenland. the question is how much human-made climate forcing is needed to cause the albedo-flip mechanism on west antarctica and/or greenland on a scale large enough to initiate multiple feedbacks and nonlinear ice sheet collapse? our best guide, again, may be palaeoclimate data, along with evidence of current ice sheet change.
What can explain why low-cloud feedback is typically positive and why it is so inconsistent among models?
theresultingincreaseinthelow-leveldryingcausedbylower-tropospheric mixing producesa mixing-induced lowcloud (milc) feedback ofvariable strength, which can explain why low-cloud feedback is typically positive5and why it is so inconsistent among models
What does lower-tropospheric mixing and associated moisture transport depend on?
lower-tropospheric mixing and associated moisture transport would depend on transport by shallow cumulus clouds, but also on the downdrafts, local compensating subsidence and evaporation of falling rain that are assumed to accompany deeper cumulus
What mechanism does large-scale mixing across isentropes occurs via?
large-scale mixing across isentropes occurs via explicitly resolved circulations
theresultingincreaseinthelow-leveldryingcausedbylower-tropospheric mixing producesa mixing-induced lowcloud (milc) feedback ofvariable strength, which can explain why low-cloud feedback is typically positive5and why it is so inconsistent among models. in a gcm, vertical mixing in the lower troposphere occurs in two ways (extendeddata fig.1).first,small-scalemixingof heat and water vapour within a single grid-column of the model is implied by convective and other parametrizations. lower-tropospheric mixing and associated moisture transport would depend on transport by shallow cumulus clouds, but also on the downdrafts, local compensating subsidence and evaporation of falling rain that are assumed to accompany deeper cumulus. second, large-scale mixing across isentropes occurs via explicitly resolved circulations. whether this contributes to lowertropospheric mixing will again depend on model parametrizations, but in this case, on their ability to sustain the relatively shallow heating that must accompany a shallow (lower-tropospheric) circulation. we measure these two mixing phenomena independently, starting with
What is the hypothesis of Granger causality
results from the granger causality tests are consistent with the hypothesis that as climate change causes the atmosphere and, in turn, the seas to warm, the ocean stores more energy that is converted to hurricane wind. of course, a warm ocean is necessary but insufficient for hurricanes
What does the warming of the oceans show?
while others have recently argued that the warming of the oceans shows a clear signature of external forcing barnett et al. 2005; trenberth and shea 2006], the present analysis is the first to directly relate climate change to hurricane activity. t
results from the granger causality tests are consistent with the hypothesis that as climate change causes the atmosphere and, in turn, the seas to warm, the ocean stores more energy that is converted to hurricane wind. of course, a warm ocean is necessary but insufficient for hurricanes. while others have recently argued that the warming of the oceans shows a clear signature of external forcing barnett et al. 2005; trenberth and shea 2006], the present analysis is the first to directly relate climate change to hurricane activity. the relationship between climate change and hurricanes may not extend to other tropical cyclone regions where ocean circulations during the tropical cyclone season may play the dominant role in warming (and cooling) the ocean surface. understanding how climate modulates hurricane destructiveness is crucial to society, particularly as coastal populations swell pielke et al. 2005]. the large increase in power dissipation of hurricanes over the past several decades together with the results presented here suggest cause for concern. acknowledgments. i thank thomas jagger for his help with the data. the work is supported by the u.s. national science foundation (atm-0435628) and the risk prediction initiative of the bermuda biological station for research (rpi-05001).
What can be said for one third of the world's population?
one-third of the world's population now lives in countries that are water stressed (where more than 20% of the renewable water supply is being used
What does Climate Change threaten to exacerbate?
climate change threatens to exacerbate problems already severe and create further water deficits and shortages
What percentage of global water consumption may come from depleting groundwater resources?
as much as 10 per cent of global annual water consumption may come from depleting groundwater resources that are also undergoing contamination
one-third of the world's population now lives in countries that are water stressed (where more than 20% of the renewable water supply is being used). the world's population living in such circumstances is expected to increase from an estimated 1.5 billion people currently to about 5 billion people in 2025 (ipcc 2001). one in five of the world's people now lack access to safe and affordable drinking water. half of the world's population does not have access to sanitation. each year 3-4 million people die of waterborne disease, including more than 2 million young children who die of diarrhoea. half of the world's wetlands have been destroyed in the 20th century. as much as 10 per cent of global annual water consumption may come from depleting groundwater resources that are also undergoing contamination. in most countries, highly fragmented water institutions manage growing water scarcities and block integrated water management approaches (cosgrove and rijsberman 2000). indeed, the greatest vulnerabilities worldwide in 2001 are in unmanaged or unsustainable water systems in developing countries. typically, such systems are already at high risk due to other forces--population growth, water contamination, poor pricing systems, and growing irrigation uses--pushing the systems further into unsustainability. climate change threatens to exacerbate problems already severe and create further water deficits and shortages. climate change, it is generally thought, will produce increases in annual mean streamflow in high-latitude countries but reductions in central asia, the mediterranean, southern africa, and australia. higher temperatures will mean a general trend toward increases in demands for irrigation water. higher water temperatures may also degrade water quality in many regions, particularly when taken in conjunction with increased pollutants attendant on growing populations, urbanization, and consumption. the frequency and magnitudes of floods will also increase in many regions due to more frequent heavy rainfalls. in some regions increased precipitation will
What have recruitment levels of individual cod stocks frequently been associated with?
variations in temperature during the first year of life
What did they find out about the relationship between sea surface and recruitment as pertaining to the sign for cold-water stocks?
generally positive
What did they find out about the relationship between sea surface and recruitment as pertaining to the sign for warm-water stocks?
negative
recruitment levels of individual cod stocks frequently have been associated with variations in temperature during the first year of life (e.g. hermann et al. 1965; sutcliffe et al. 1977; saetersdal and loeng, 1987 ). the strength, and even the sign, of the relationship between temperature and cod recruitment varied between stocks, however. a comparative analysis of the temperature-recruitment relationship for many of the cod stocks in the north atlantic by planque and fre'dou (1999) provided insight into the reasons for the variability in the relationships figure 2 ). they found that the sign of the relationship between sea surface temperature (sst) and recruitment was generally positive for cold-water stocks (adults which inhabit bottom temperatures 6 c) and negative for warm-water stocks (adults which inhabit bottom temperatures r 9 c). stocks in the mid-range of bottom temperatures (7 e 8 c) tended to have little or no relationship between sst and recruitment. in a study of north sea cod under climate change, clark et al. (2003) estimated a 30% decrease in recruitment in response to a 0.25 c increase in temperature. they further noted that continuation of current fishing levels in combination with expected temperature increases would lead to a faster rate of decline in the north sea stock than if temperature changes were not considered.
What is your second novel feature?
our second novel feature is that the policymaker learns about the tipping point's location as the earth warm
What are the two tipping point possibilities generate qualitatively different policy paths?
we derive optimal policies for two different types of tipping points from the scientific literature. the first tipping point increases the strength of temperature feedbacks in the climate system, and the second decreases the ability of the earth system to remove carbon dioxide (co2) from the atmosphere. these two tipping point possibilities generate qualitatively different policy paths because we explicitly model their geophysical effects and thereby endogenize the welfare loss
our second novel feature is that the policymaker learns about the tipping point's location as the earth warms. while scientists are uncertain about the precise temperatures that trigger shifts in the climate system, these shifts do not occur randomly. once we live through a period of warming, we learn whether its temperatures triggered a regime shift. if they did not, we can live in that world without incurring further damages from a shift in climate dynamics. ignoring this informational value would overestimate the cost of a temperature increase and thereby bias optimal policies. moreover, there is great scope for learning because climate tipping points are rife with uncertainty (kriegler et al., 2009), as they are beyond both historical observations and the scope of large-scale climate models. previous work with full integrated assessment models either made information exogenous or excluded learning altogether. to capture optimal learning in a full integrated assessment, we employ a recursive dynamic programming version of the dice-2007 model, run with a one-year time step under an infinite planning horizon. several papers have developed recursive implementations of dice in order to analyze various types of non-tipping point uncertainties (kelly and kolstad, 1999; leach, 2007; crost and traeger, 2010; jensen and traeger, 2011; cai, judd and lontzek, 2012). our recursive implementation extends the reduced-state version of traeger (2012). we derive optimal policies for two different types of tipping points from the scientific literature. the first tipping point increases the strength of temperature feedbacks in the climate system, and the second decreases the ability of the earth system to remove carbon dioxide (co2) from the atmosphere. these two tipping point possibilities generate qualitatively different policy paths because we explicitly model their geophysical effects and thereby endogenize the welfare loss. specifically, as the co2 stock rises, post-tipping policy has reduced scope to offset an increase in temperature feedbacks and the welfare loss from crossing that threshold therefore increases. in contrast, the welfare loss from the carbon sink tipping point is relatively constant over time because the tipping point's effects
What are the temperature categories?
six different categories: 'warmer,' 'cooler,' 'more extreme,' 'other,' 'no change,' and 'don't know
Where did the tenperature and precipitation data come from?
temperature and precipitation data came from the africa rainfall and temperature evaluation system (artes) (world bank 2003
How many adaptation categories to climate change were found?
no less than 25 different categories were identified for adaptations to climate change
responses to questions on farmer perceptions were coded as binary variables. responses to the question on whether farmers had witnessed changes in temperature were classified as falling into one or more of six different categories: 'warmer,' 'cooler,' 'more extreme,' 'other,' 'no change,' and 'don't know.' the question on whether the farmer had witnessed changes in precipitation was classified as falling into one of seven different categories. no less than 25 different categories were identified for adaptations to climate change and 12 different barriers to climate change were identified for the eleven african countries in the study (maddison 2006). temperature and precipitation data came from the africa rainfall and temperature evaluation system (artes) (world bank 2003). this dataset, created by the national oceanic and atmospheric association's climate prediction center, is based on ground station measurements of precipitation.
The perturbation tests are compared against what?
all perturbation tests are compared against a control run from the same ctm, except for the two oslo ctm3 simulations of biomass burning emission altitude, which are compared to each other
Why in Oslo CTM3 temperature and water vapor perturbations are applied only to grid levels below 200 hPa?
in oslo ctm3, temperature and water vapor perturbations are applied only to grid levels below 200 hpa to avoid confounding effects on stratospheric chemistry
Why were two sensitivity simulations in Oslo CTM3 with all biomass burning emitted into the surface layer performed?
for comparison to the other ctms that put all biomass burning in the boundary layer, we perform two sensitivity simulations in oslo ctm3 with all biomass burning emitted into the surface layer
each variable is perturbed in a separate simulation. all perturbation tests are compared against a control run from the same ctm, except for the two oslo ctm3 simulations of biomass burning emission altitude, which are compared to each other. geos-chem perturbation tests use geos-5 meteorology only. b this magnitude is the projected increase during the period 2000-2030 in rcp 8.5. c in oslo ctm3, temperature and water vapor perturbations are applied only to grid levels below 200 hpa to avoid confounding effects on stratospheric chemistry. d in the control simulation, oslo ctm3 emits biomass burning gases and aerosols following the retro vertical distribution, which injects 35% of tropical emissions and 45% of boreal emissions above 2 km. for comparison to the other ctms that put all biomass burning in the boundary layer, we perform two sensitivity simulations in oslo ctm3 with all biomass burning emitted into the surface layer. 6 6
How can we  estimate the effluent BOD concentration from the facultative pond?
the estimation of the effluent bod concentration from the facultative pond can be done according to the methodology described in section 13.6
Why the removal coefficient K  in this case is lower than in primary facultative ponds?
the removal coefficient k will be in this case lower than in primary facultative ponds, due to the previous removal of the more easily degradable organic matter in the anaerobic pond
Suggest values of K  for secondary facultative ponds?
the following values of k have been suggested for secondary facultative ponds, using the complete-mix model: k 0 25 to 0 32 d- 1
secondary facultative ponds can be designed following the same surface loading rates described in chapter 13. the resulting detention time will be now smaller, owing to the previous removal of the bod in the anaerobic pond. for the design according to the surface loading rate, the bod concentration and load at the influent to the facultative pond are the effluent from the anaerobic pond there are some evidences to suggest that the surface loading rate in secondary facultative ponds could be somewhat higher than those adopted for primary ponds. however, for design purposes, it is better to consider both as being equal for safety reasons (mara et al, 1992). in secondary facultative ponds there is more flexibility with regards to the geometry of the pond, which could have higher l/b ratios, since the overloading problems in the inlet zone should be smaller due to the previous removal of a large part of the bod in the anaerobic pond. the estimation of the effluent bod concentration from the facultative pond can be done according to the methodology described in section 13.6. the removal coefficient k will be in this case lower than in primary facultative ponds, due to the previous removal of the more easily degradable organic matter in the anaerobic pond. the remainder of the organic matter is harder to degrade, implying slower conversion rates. in section 13.6.3, the following values of k have been suggested for secondary facultative ponds, using the complete-mix model: k 0 25 to 0 32 d- 1
Explain about naturally occurring barometric mineral dust? Â 
ig. 2. median arrival times (thousands of years ago) as predicted by the model. histograms show the distribution [frequency f )] of times for key areas of the world: a the arabian peninsula (the exit point out of africa), b southeast asia, c australia, d europe, e north america, and f central and south america
What is the Arabian Peninsula? Â 
a the arabian peninsula (the exit point out of africa), b southeast asia, c australia, d europe, e north america, and f central and south america. red arrows show key archaeological fi ndings commonly referred to as the earliest evidence for amhs in those areas si text fig. s7 and tables s1 and s2 
Describe the gray areas? Â 
gray areas were never colonized, either because of extreme climatic conditions or a lack of connections to the mainland (sea voyages of more than 100 km were not allowed in our model). for clarity, arrival times were capped to 80 kya
fig. 2. median arrival times (thousands of years ago) as predicted by the model. histograms show the distribution [frequency f )] of times for key areas of the world: a the arabian peninsula (the exit point out of africa), b southeast asia, c australia, d europe, e north america, and f central and south america. red arrows show key archaeological fi ndings commonly referred to as the earliest evidence for amhs in those areas si text fig. s7 and tables s1 and s2 ). gray areas were never colonized, either because of extreme climatic conditions or a lack of connections to the mainland (sea voyages of more than 100 km were not allowed in our model). for clarity, arrival times were capped to 80 kya.
number of authors have examined the relationship between?
policy discourse and material infrastructures
what are four types of response of socio-technical regimes to critical problems?
endogenous renewal, re-orientation of trajectories, emergent transformation and purposive transitions
A crucial step in determining a regime's response is
how problems are articulated, or translated into discourse
first, a number of authors have examined the relationship between policy discourse and material infrastructures in the dynamics of change within socio-technical regimes (lovell, 2007a; rohracher, 2001; smith and stirling, 2006; smith et al., 2005; weber, 2003). there are four types of response of socio-technical regimes to critical problems such as climate change: endogenous renewal, re-orientation of trajectories, emergent transformation and purposive transitions (smith et al., 2005). a crucial step in determining a regime's response is how problems are articulated, or translated into discourse. with a socio-technical regime such as energy, where there is a capital-intensive, durable, geographically-widespread infrastructure and associated institutionalised networks, a typical reaction to a significant problem such as climate change is endogenous renewal, defined as a coordinated process of internal regime adaptation, whereby solutions to particular problems are found within the existing regime, and "decisions over future technological choices [are] guided by past experience" (smith et al., 2005: 1500). from this perspective, the four climate change storylines can be viewed as the product of an overall strategy of endogenous renewal they have all been influenced by the existing socio-technical energy regime to fit with a 'business as usual' trajectory of growth for the energy sector. endogenous renewal thus offers some explanation as to why it might be that the four storylines associated with the convergence of the british energy and climate change sectors appear to coexist - because they have all been heavily influenced by the existing energy regime. conflict levels remain low because of the close association between discourse and existing practices, technologies, institutions and interests.
In which country the population density dependence seems to be present ?
the populations in eastern europe
What was the stochastic components of the white stork population in western France?
0*098 and 0*035
What was the specific growth rate of western France?
n 1 was r1 0*189
the pattern in the annual fluctuations in the population size differed among the white stork populations (fig. 2). the trajectory of the french population was characterized by an establishment period followed by some years with rapid growth. during the recent years the population has fluctuated around some equilibrium size. the populations in eastern europe in which density dependence seems to be present were characterized by relatively small annual fluctuations (fig. 2). the stochastic components of the white stork population in western france was 0*098 and 0*035. the specific growth rate at n 1 was r1 0*189. an extremely strong density regulation occurred around k 11*52), although this estimate was uncertain,
What questions will be answered by implementing a mix of technological, policy, and institutional innovations be required for livestock keepers?
how can livestock keepers take advantage of the increasing demand for livestock products, where this is feasible, and how can the livestock assets of the poor be protected in the face of changing and increasingly variable climates
livestock systems in developing countries are characterised by rapid change, driven by factors such as population growth, increases in the demand for livestock products as incomes rise, and urbanisation. climate change is adding to the considerable development challenges posed by these drivers of change. how can livestock keepers take advantage of the increasing demand for livestock products, where this is feasible, and how can the livestock assets of the poor be protected in the face of changing and increasingly variable climates? given the complexity of livestock and crop-livestock systems, a mix of technological, policy and institutional innovations will inevitably be required. here we outline some of the likely impacts of climate change on livestock and livestock systems, and discuss some of the resultant priority livestock development issues: water and feeds, livestock genetics and breeding, and animal health. we highlight livestock's role in alleviating poverty and helping households to deal with climate variability. however, there are considerable gaps in our knowledge of how climate change and increasing climate variability will affect livestock systems and the livelihoods of the people who depend on them. we highlight the need for detailed assessment of localised impacts, and the importance of identifying appropriate options that can help livestock keepers adapt to climate change.
What impacts are potentially profound?
the impacts of global climate change and variability upon water resources are potentially profound
What are water resources already overstressed by?
water resources are already overstressed by growing demands even without the added burden of climate change
What is one of the successes of earth systems science?
one of the successes of earth systems science is significant improvement in the ability to predict many aspects of climate and hydrologic variability
the impacts of global climate change and variability upon water resources are potentially profound. in the 1980s, climate scientists' models indicated that changes in patterns and amounts of precipitation would be an important consequence of climate change (waggoner 1990). water resources are already overstressed by growing demands even without the added burden of climate change. in the united states, these demands come from increasing population and expansion of human activity into semiarid regions such as the southwest (arizona, new mexico, southern california) and drought-prone regions such as the southeast (e.g., states bounded by the gulf of mexico and their neighbors). climate change is already affecting precipitation variability: floods that previously had a probability of 1 in 100 years may now be more frequent in some areas. snowpack--the dominant source of freshwater for the western united states--is lower in volume and, on average, melts earlier in the spring. this affects and will continue to impact farmers (who must plan irrigation schedules accordingly) as well as water utility planners (who will have to anticipate potential decreases of supply in summer) (e.g., smith and reeves 1988; attwood et al. 1988; milly et al. 2005; solomon et al. 2007). one of the successes of earth systems science is significant improvement in the ability to predict many aspects of climate and hydrologic variability. over two decades ago climate scientists began making remarkable advances in probabilistic forecasting of seasonal and interannual variation in climate conditions. signals related to el nin~o-southern oscillation (enso) enable predictions of precipitation, runoff, and streamflow from one season to one year in advance. potentially, such information could be used to reduce vulnerability from flood, drought, and other climate variability events. reducing vulnerability to changes and increased variability in climate depends upon our ability to bridge the gap between climate forecasting science and the implementation of policies responsive to such advanced warnings and opportunities. historically, the provision of climate and hydrologic forecast products has been a producer-driven rather than a user-driven process (cash and buizer 2005, p. 12). as a consequence, momentum in product development
The earths climate is Governe dby what
earth's climate is governed by the interaction between many processes in the atmosphere, ocean, land surface and cryosphere
Their average effects are approximately included in a simple way by ?
by taking advantage of physically based relationships with the larger-scale variables through the techniques of parameterizations
. The resolution of a typical ocean model is ?
 the resolution of a typical ocean model is about 200
the earth's climate is governed by the interaction between many processes in the atmosphere, ocean, land surface and cryosphere. the interactions are complex and extensive so that quantitative predictions of the impact on the climate of greenhouse gas increase cannot be made through simple intuitive reasoning. for this reason, computer models have been developed which try to mathematically simulate the climate system, including the interaction between the system component (dibike coulibaly, 2004). for climate simulation, the major components of the climate system that must be represented in submodels are atmosphere, ocean, land surface, cryosphere and biosphere, along with the processes that go on within and between them. the mathematical models generally used to simulate the present climate and project future climate with forcing by greenhouse gases and aerosols are generally referred to as gcms (general circulation models). general circulation models in which the atmosphere and ocean components have been coupled are also known as atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (aogcms). currently, the resolution of the atmospheric part of a typical model is about 250 km in the horizontal and about 1 km in the vertical above the boundary layer. the resolution of a typical ocean model is about 200 to 400 m in the vertical, with a horizontal resolution of about 125 to 250 km. many physical processes, such as those related to clouds or ocean convection, take place at much smaller spatial scales than the model grid and therefore cannot be modelled and resolved explicitly. their average effects are approximately included in a simple way by taking advantage of physically based relationships with the larger-scale variables through the techniques of parameterizations (houghton, 2001).
How was data acquired?
first, data were acquired exclusively through self-reported methods
What limitations have archival data from schools?
further, archival data from schools were not available; regardless, such data have severe limitations because of nondetection and nonreporting
Why should future research utilize mixed methods?
second, future research should utilize mixed methods so the rich, in-depth information can be obtained and used to clarify further the findings of quantitative research
a few limitations should be noted. first, data were acquired exclusively through self-reported methods. whenever individuals are questioned about their own antisocial behavior, demand characteristics may curb the accuracy of their report. nevertheless, similar prevalence rates of bullying perpetration were found in the present study as commonly reported in other studies using other data collection procedures (e.g., craig pepler, 1997). further, archival data from schools were not available; regardless, such data have severe limitations because of nondetection and nonreporting. second, future research should utilize mixed methods so the rich, in-depth information can be obtained and used to clarify further the findings of quantitative research. nevertheless, the current study found that individual perceptions of contextual factors such as school climate, in addition to proximal normative beliefs about bullying and perceptions of self-esteem were important in predicting subsequent bullying behavior.
Explain about the two-step process employed to analyze climate technology interaction in rice?
we employed a two-step process to analyze climate e technology interaction in rice. first we categorized all of the released rice varieties according to three timeframes (1965 e 1980, 1980 e 1995, and 1995 e 2010) that coincided with the development of nepal ' s agricultural research institutions that have been described below. then, we analyzed the emergence of climate sensitivity by investigating the traits of all rice varieties from both technological and institutional perspectives
What are the two major considerations found to support the assertion of climate-induced technological innovation?
we found two major considerations to support the assertion of climate-induced technological innovation: i) innovation of location-speci fi c rice varieties in diverse rice growing region of nepal, and ii) development of climatically appropriate agronomic practices
rice research program (nrrp) of nepal; and b) policy documents of two major governmental institutions narc and the ministry of agriculture and cooperatives (moac). by reviewing nrrp publications we fi rst developed a list of all released and pre-released varieties of rice in nepal including the year of release, recommended climatic and ecological domains and geographic region(s). to understand whether the research endeavors in nepal consider climatic factors as one of the traits during the process of technological innovation, we then compiled the list of speci fi c varietal traits (e.g. drought resistant, disease and insect resistant, maturity, grain yield, quality, biomass yield) associated with each variety of rice. we employed a two-step process to analyze climate e technology interaction in rice. first we categorized all of the released rice varieties according to three timeframes (1965 e 1980, 1980 e 1995, and 1995 e 2010) that coincided with the development of nepal ' s agricultural research institutions that have been described below. then, we analyzed the emergence of climate sensitivity by investigating the traits of all rice varieties from both technological and institutional perspectives. findings and discussion while it is dif fi cult to make de fi nitive conclusions with respect to the claim of climate-induced innovation, this study reveals that farmers and their supporting institutions in nepal are increasingly sensitive of location-speci fi c technology on demand. this is not only important for reducing climatic risks, and hence adaptation to future climate, but equally important for the overall growth of agricultural system in the country. we present the fi ndings of this paper in the context of two interrelated but separate frameworks of induced innovation: a) induced technological innovation, and b) institutional innovation. induced technological innovation we found two major considerations to support the assertion of climate-induced technological innovation: i) innovation of location-speci fi c rice varieties in diverse rice growing region of nepal, and ii) development of climatically appropriate agronomic practices. innovation of location-speci fi c rice varieties agricultural research establishment in nepal has been developing and delivering improved cultivars since the mid 1960s. between 1965 and 1980 the institutional focus was on testing of technologies borrowed from neighboring countries yadav,1987 ). it was a period of centralized decision-making where farmers were treated as passive recipients whose participation was limited to adoption of released and pre-released advanced varietal lines, and included farmer field trial (fft), farmer varietal trial (fvt), training and visit (t&v), informal research and development (ird), and diversity test. between 1981 and 1995, the country reformed its agricultural research institutions and began focusing on the innovation of location-speci fi c technology. consequently, climate sensitivity traits (e.g. drought resistance) began to emerge as an important consideration (see table 1 ). during this period the country established a number of regional agricultural research centers across geographic regions and also began to pursue a more integrated, onfarm research approach such as cropping/farming system research program. despite all these positive transformations, social needs and marginal environments were still not adequately considered, nor were local knowledge and skills taken into account during the varietal development process. since 1995, with their focus on client-oriented technological innovation, farmers and their supporting institutions began to show greater sensitivity to location-speci fi c climatic conditions
Name three to five developments that the emerging generation of people are developing.
there is an emerging generation of people who do ' get it ' and are working intelligently to rapidly develop our ability and capacity to adapt across a range of fronts, including those of green building and community design, water efficiency and reuse, energy demand reduction, equipment efficiency, quality of life, transport and urban farming
What is an NGO?
we owe a particular debt of gratitude to many people working as non-governmental organizations (ngos
What is the most rapidly growing green movement in the UK?
but in the uk perhaps the most rapidly growing has been the transition towns movement
in spite of the many reactionary forces that have a firm hand on the tiller of developments in the built environment, not least those in the heart of government, there is an emerging generation of people who do ' get it ' and are working intelligently to rapidly develop our ability and capacity to adapt across a range of fronts, including those of green building and community design, water efficiency and reuse, energy demand reduction, equipment efficiency, quality of life, transport and urban farming. we owe a particular debt of gratitude to many people working as non-governmental organizations (ngos), including friends of the earth, 14 greenpeace, 15 the campaign to stop climate change 16 and not least the wwf (formerly the world wildlife fund), 17 building on the important foundations laid by ralph rookwood and the town and country planning association, 18 who have done much to develop and promote low-carbon and sustainable buildings and communities. really important too is the influence of emerging youth groups like people and planet 19 who are aiming to radicalize school and university students to become agents of change in their own futures. at play here is a whole range of city-level movements such as the low-carbon cities and kyoto cities 20 movements and the solar cities movements, 21 but in the uk perhaps the most rapidly growing has been the transition towns movement. 22 the scale for successful action seems to be particularly more free ebooks http://fast-file.blogspot.com
What is a natural-hazard example that shows perceived probability is a person's expectancy of being exposed to a threat?
to use a natural-hazard example, that a flood reaches the house in which a person lives
What is an example involving a person's adaptive response that shows adaptation costs and self-efficacy are related?
adaptation costs and self-efficacy are related--a person may find an adaptive response 'difficult' either because of small self-efficacy or high response costs
What do 'maladaptive' responses include?
maladaptive' responses include avoidant reactions (e.g., denial of the threat, wishful thinking, fatalism) and 'wrong' adaptations that actually increase climate change damage although not intended to do so
in fig. 1 risk appraisal has two subcomponents. first, perceived probability is the person's expectancy of being exposed to the threat (to use a natural-hazard example, that a flood reaches the house in which a person lives). second, perceived severity is the person's appraisal of how harmful the consequences of the threat would be to things he or she values if the threat were to actually occur (e.g., a farmer's judgment that a drought in the area would harm valued things, such as food security or income). adaptation appraisal by contrast, comes after the risk perception process, and only starts if a specific threshold of threat appraisal is exceeded: 'a minimum level of threat or concern must exist before people start contemplating the benefits of possible actions and ruminate their competence to actually perform them' schwarzer, 1992, p. 235 ). adaptation appraisal as well as its result, the perceived adaptive capacity, has three subcomponents. first, it includes a person's perceived adaptation efficacy i.e., the belief in adaptive actions or responses to be effective in protecting oneself or others from being harmed by the threat (e.g., a judgment that changing cropping patterns would prevent damage from a drought). the second component perceived selfefficacy refers to the person's perceived ability actually to perform or carry out these adaptive responses (e.g., a person with few technical skills might perceive it as rather difficult to relocate electric devices in upper floors to prevent damage from flood). the third component, perceived adaptation costs is the assumed costs of taking the adaptive response. this can include any costs (e.g., monetary, personal, time, effort) associated with taking the risk-reducing adaptive response. although adaptation costs and self-efficacy are related--a person may find an adaptive response 'difficult' either because of small self-efficacy or high response costs--it is useful to differentiate them conceptually. based on the outcomes of the riskand adaptationappraisal processes, a person responds to the threat. two general types of responses can be differentiated: adaptation and ' maladaptation '. adaptive responses are those that prevent damage,2and are taken if the risk perception and the perceived adaptive capacity are high. 'maladaptive' responses include avoidant reactions (e.g., denial of the threat, wishful thinking, fatalism) and 'wrong' adaptations that actually increase climate change damage although not intended to do so (e.g.,
After consulting with the physical education teachers, what term was substituted for sports in Item 3 to reflect the full range of activities that students engage in during physical education ?
physical education
Each item is scored on a scale from what to what?
1 to 4
How was the scale contextualized?
by adding the phrase in pe to the end of each item
harter's (1985) scale of athletic competence for children was modified to assess perceived physical competence in physical education class. the 6-item scale is designed to measure children's perceptions of how good they are (i.e., ability) at sport and other physical games and utilizes a structured alternative format to reduce social desirability bias. participants first chose which of two statements best describes him or her and then whether that statement is sort of true or really true for him or her. each item is then scored on a scale from 1 to 4, with 1 representing low perceived competence and 4 representing high perceived competence. the scale was contextualized by adding the phrase in pe to the end of each item. after consulting with the physical education teachers, the term physical activities was substituted for sports in item 3 to reflect the full range of activities that students engage in during physical education. there has been support for the internal consistency and validity of this scale in thirdthrough eighth-grade students (harter, 1985) and with similarly modified versions in the physical education setting (e.g., ridgers, fazey, fairclough, 2007).
How is the preponderance of animal species measured?
measured in terms of biomass
Which species of livestock is predominant?
the humble cow is now predominant among animals
What has caused the increase in the numbers of livestock?
as meat and dairy consumption has risen, so too have livestock numbers
as meat and dairy consumption has risen, so too have livestock numbers. the global chicken population is now almost 22 billion, more than three times the human population. measured in terms of biomass, livestock are among the most preponderant animal species on earth. the total mass of the global cattle population exceeded 130 million tonnes in 2010, considerably greater than the total human mass of 100 million tonnes.59 human consumption of beef and milk means the humble cow is now predominant among animals. under certain agro-ecological conditions with well-managed grazing, livestock farming can play an important role in maintaining and improving agricultural land. however, at current levels of consumption, such massive livestock populations have profound consequences for biodiversity. according to one estimate, 30 per cent of global biodiversity loss is linked to livestock production,60 owing to its contribution to deforestation and land conversion, overgrazing and degradation of grasslands, and desertification.
For diesel vehicles, which countries had large global forcing reduction due to tight emission standards in 2030 compared with 2010 emissions?
the global forcing reduction due to tight emission standards in 2030 compared with 2010 emissions is large for diesel vehicles in india and latin america
For petrol or diesel vehicles, which countries had modest global forcing reduction due to tight emission standards in 2030 compared with 2010 emissions?
modest for petrol vehicles in india and petrol or diesel vehicles in china
What indicates full implementation of currently planned emission controls is important for climate?
controls on diesel vehicles in western europe, petrol cars and heavy-duty trucks in north america and motorcycles in india and china that take place under either scenario provide substantial forcing reductions, indicating that full implementation of currently planned emission controls is important for climate
china. valuation of crop losses and deaths would follow the relative contribution of each region and fuel type to the underlying impacts (table 2). we now examine the effect of the extra emission controls, and how much change might be obtained during the next two decades (2010 differs substantially from 2000 in some regions, though we also use 2000 because emission inventories are better established for that time). the global forcing reduction due to tight emission standards in 2030 compared with 2010 emissions is large for diesel vehicles in india and latin america (diesel controls were only applied in brazil), modest for petrol vehicles in india and petrol or diesel vehicles in china, and small for other regions/fuels (fig. 2). emissions from indian diesel vehicles have particularly large climate impacts owing to their proximity to highly reflective snow/ice and desert areas. controls on brazilian diesel have an enhanced effect in part due to the large ozone response owing to plentiful sunlight. examining the forcing in 2030 under the two scenarios indicates that ~ 1 2-2 3 of the petrol vehicle forcing reductions in china and india are expected under the baseline case. similarly, forcing reductions due to decreased chinese diesel emissions over 2010-2030 are exclusively due to the baseline changes, with tighter standards inducing positive forcing through reduced organic carbon. analyses of radiative forcing by vehicle type show that maximum forcing reductions in 2030 with tight standards relative to the baseline come from emission controls on heavy-duty diesel trucks in india and brazil, medium-duty diesel vehicles in india and light-duty petrol vehicles in na/me (fig. 2). small extra reductions come from controls on light-duty petrol vehicles everywhere, and in some regions from controls on motorcycles and medium-duty trucks. controls on diesel vehicles in western europe, petrol cars and heavy-duty trucks in north america and motorcycles in india and china that take place under either scenario provide substantial forcing reductions, indicating that full implementation of currently planned emission controls is important for climate. the net forcing depends strongly on the balance between multiple components, underscoring the need for analysis across all emitted compounds.
What is the actual impact in the coastal zone?
relative sea-level rise
What is the subsidence of Tokyo?
up to 5m subsidence
What is DIVA?
dynamic interactive vulnerability assessment
the focus is overwhelmingly on sea-level rise. actual impacts in coastal zones are a product of relative sea-level rise which is the sum of climate-induced changes (global increase in ocean volume and regional effects such as variable thermal expansion, changing mean air pressure and ocean circulation) and non-climate effects on land elevation due to natural processes, such as tectonics and glacial-isostatic adjustment, and, sometimes more importantly, human-induced processes, such as subsidence due to fluid withdrawal, and drainage of coastal soils susceptible to subsidence and oxidation. hence, relative sea-level rise varies from place to place: it is generally higher than the global mean in areas that are subsiding which includes many populated deltas (e.g. the mississippi delta), while many coastal cities built in deltaic settings have subsided many metres due to human-induced processes during the 20th century. examples include tokyo (up to 5m subsidence), shanghai (up to 3m subsidence), bangkok (up to 2m subsidence) and new orleans (up to 3m subsidence). as well as mean sea-level rise, there is a need to consider changes in extreme sea levels, which will additionally be influenced by more intense storms, if they occur. many existing studies of adaptation costs apply global changes of sea level directly with no downscaling to relative sea-level rise. this factor is now being addressed in newer assessment tools such as the diva (dynamic interactive vulnerability assessment) tool (hinkel and klein, 2007; nicholls et al., 2007b; vafeidis et al., 2008), although the datasets on the non-climate factors require significant improvement. until recently, no study has addressed changing storms, in part due to the lack of credible scenarios; there is now one paper addressing this (narita et al., 2009). similarly, there is little global assessment of coasts and any other climate change factors.
What happens when mean surface temperature approaches the freezing point of seawater?
when the annual mean surface temperature approaches the freezing point of seawater, the entire ice layer warms up and melts away from below
What happens during the hot part of the season or day?
during the hot part of the season or day, meltwater forms at the surface if the temperature reaches the melting point (in this case, the melting point of the freshwater ice at the surface
How can water be removed?
water is somehow removed--perhaps by drainage through a moulin
what conditions must be met for a snowball state to deglaciate? certainly, a sufficient condition is that the annual mean surface temperature approach the melting point. it is a consequence of fourier's solution that the seasonal temperature fluctuation dies out within approximately 2 m of the surface (pierrehumbert 2010, chapter 7); deeper than that, the temperature is the steady diffusive conduction profile corresponding to the annual mean temperature at the surface and to the freezing point of seawater at the base of the ice. when the annual mean surface temperature approaches the freezing point of seawater, the entire ice layer warms up and melts away from below. this is the deglaciation criterion employed in pierrehumbert (2004, 2005). several subtleties, however, could perhaps result in deglaciation even when the annual mean surface temperature is significantly below freezing. one of those processes is the melt-ratchet process, depicted in figure 10 which can operate on either seasonal or diurnal timescales. during the hot part of the season or day, meltwater forms at the surface if the temperature reaches the melting point (in this case, the melting point of the freshwater ice at the surface). then, if that water is somehow removed--perhaps by drainage through a moulin, as happens when the greenland ice sheet surface melts, or perhaps through runoff to some distant point, where it collects in a lake--the ice thickness will have been reduced by the amount of the melt. this amount can be considerable, given that relatively little energy is required to melt ice. then, during the cold part of the day or season, only a small amount of ice can reform if the ice layer is thick because the ice forms at the bottom of the layer, and the rate of formation is limited by the slow diffusion of heat
What is the effect of changing temperature in mountain regions?
influence both the occurrence (in terms of temporal frequency) and the magnitude of future mass movements in mountain regions
What is the effect of warming climate on rocks?
one can also speculate that the probability of rock instability and the incidence of large (>106m3) rockfalls will increase in a warming climate
What is the effect of glacier downwasting?
glacier downwasting will result in the formation of further icemarginal lakes and subsequent problems of glacier lake outburst floods
the effects of changing mean and extreme temperature and precipitation are likely to be widespread and to influence both the occurrence (in terms of temporal frequency) and the magnitude of future mass movements in mountain regions around the globe. despite uncertainties, slopes currently underlain by degrading permafrost will probably become less stable at progressively higher altitudes with ongoing climate change (harris et al., 2001, 2009). one can also speculate that the probability of rock instability and the incidence of large (>106m3) rockfalls will increase in a warming climate (holm et al., 2004; huggel, 2009). glacier downwasting will result in the formation of further icemarginal lakes and subsequent problems of glacier lake outburst floods (glofs; frey et al.,
In which part of the world the basic information is used to calculate climatic conditions
recently we used such information to identify areas of sub-saharan africa in which cereal cropping may become increasingly risky in the future
On what source the people must depend if probabilities of failed seasons?
the increased probabilities of failed seasons may mean that people might need to shift from cropping and increase their dependence on livestock
What module can be used to generate daily weather for future climates ?
gcm4_module can also be used to generate daily weather for future climates
there are many ways in which this basic information can be used (with care). for example, daily data can be used to calculate lengths of growing period for current conditions and future climate scenarios. recently we used such information to identify areas of sub-saharan africa in which cereal cropping may become increasingly risky in the future, where the increased probabilities of failed seasons may mean that people might need to shift from cropping and increase their dependence on livestock (jones and thornton, 2009). gcm4_module can also be used to generate daily weather for future climates that can be used by impact modelling software to drive various models. an example is the decision support system for agrotechnology transfer (dssat; icasa, 2007), with which a wide range of crop models can be run (such as ceres-maize, for example). we recently used these methods to assess possible changes in yields of maize and beans in east africa (thornton et al., 2009).
What can cause abrupt reductions in forest biomass?
abrupt reductions in forest biomass (or ecosystem carbon) can result from drought-induced forest die-off
Why is the ecosystem carbon impact of forest biomass abrupt reductions not canceled out by tree growth?
occur more rapidly than the relatively slow countervailing biomass increments from tree natality and growth
What are the risks of increases in extreme drought and temperature events associated with projected global climate change?
heightened risks of drought-induced die-off for current tree populations
fig. 11. abrupt reductions in forest biomass (or ecosystem carbon) can result from drought-induced forest die-off and occur more rapidly than the relatively slow countervailing biomass increments from tree natality and growth. trajectories of change vary with ecosystem, as do minimum biomass and carbon values, and are not to scale in this conceptual figure. fig. 12. conceptual diagram, showing range of variability of ''current climate'' parameters for precipitation and temperature, or alternatively for drought duration and intensity, with only a small portion of the climate ''space'' currently exceeding a species-specific tree mortality threshold. ''futureclimate'' shows increasesinextreme drought and temperature events associated with projected global climate change, indicating heightened risks of drought-induced die-off for current tree populations. c.d. allen et al. forest ecology and management xxx (2009) xxx-xxx 11
For what purpose early warning system is used?
an integral part of the map is the inclusion of an early warning system, where daily and seasonal weather forecasts are monitored to identify any pending impacts and potential disasters
Which is important to implement MAP seriously?
gaining political support could help provide the necessary resources to ensure the map is taken seriously and is implemented
Which city has week climate change strategy?
yet it is clear that cape town is vulnerable to climate change, and fi nding ways to adapt should be adopted sooner rather than later, when the costs of recovery or change to infrastructure and planning will be even higher
this paper presents a methodology for municipalities to develop an integrated adaptation plan. however, the map should not be seen as a one-off process. it should be used initially to educate planners concerning these potential impacts and to develop both sectorally based and crosssectoral interventions. with time, the integration of climate-sensitive actions into development planning should become commonplace in all municipal departments and their strategic plans. an integral part of the map is the inclusion of an early warning system, where daily and seasonal weather forecasts are monitored to identify any pending impacts and potential disasters. a communication protocol is required to ensure that early warnings from the relevant entities are effectively communicated to the affected authority and communities so that appropriate interventions can be initiated. a number of potential barriers to implementing a map do, however, exist. issues such as low local human capacity to undertake this kind of planning, and the limited knowledge and understanding of climate issues at local and municipal level are some of the more obvious obstacles. limited fi nancial resources and competing priorities often result in mediumto long-term planning being sidelined, and projects that don't fi t into the short political life of decision makers are not implemented. it is diffi cult to convince decision makers to consider the need for a climate strategy when the climate projections cover a longer time horizon than the political and development framework and are associated with high uncertainty. finally, in the absence of a legislative framework, not all municipalities will undertake comprehensive and consistent adaptation planning. the case study of the city of cape town has shown that although it has no formal adaptation strategy in place, there has been enough momentum to initiate a framework that can then, ideally, be leveraged to implement action. gaining political support could help provide the necessary resources to ensure the map is taken seriously and is implemented. although there are not many activities in the city that currently are called adaptation actions, there are many ongoing activities that already facilitate adaptation to climate variability in that they reduce the impacts of climate variability, and that could therefore be supported as climate change adaptation actions that contribute to the climate change strategy of the city of cape town. developing a thorough methodology will require integrating the expertise of government stakeholders, researchers, civil society and the private sector. this integration may prove challenging and will depend on the level of support. yet it is clear that cape town is vulnerable to climate change, and fi nding ways to adapt should be adopted sooner rather than later, when the costs of recovery or change to infrastructure and planning will be even higher. this paper serves as an initial, broad overview of the problems posed by projected climate change, and requires further attention to detail in many areas before a clear adaptive strategy can be developed. further
Does climate change produce only negative effects on agriculture?
climate change could produce positive or negative effects on agriculture depending on the region and the ways in which the climate changes
Agriculture in northern Europe is likely to benefit from both a warming and the direct effect of what?
agriculture in northern europe is likely to benefit from both a warming and the direct effect of increasing co2 concentration (mela, 1996
What is the number of crops mentioned in which there may be a reduction of suitable areas?
a reduction of suitable areas for 20 traditional crops is, however, expected
climate change could produce positive or negative effects on agriculture depending on the region and the ways in which the climate changes. northern and southern regions of europe will be particularly sensitive and in some cases vulnerable to these changes. agriculture in northern europe is likely to benefit from both a warming and the direct effect of increasing co2 concentration (mela, 1996). the increased productivity will, however, be accompanied by an increased need for fertiliser and pesticides inputs with possible negative environmental effects. in the southern europe climate changes are expected to produce limited benefit for agriculture, especially for summer crops. the combined increase in temperature and reduction in precipitation during summer may enhance the problem of water shortage. moreover, the increases in climatic inter-annual variability and extreme events may also affect crop production. thus, lower yield (shorter growing season, increase in water shortage, heat stress) and higher yield variability (increase in extreme events) is expected (harrison et al. 1999). no areas may become completely unsuitable for agriculture. a reduction of suitable areas for 20 traditional crops is, however, expected. this may be overcome by the of new crops. particular vulnerable regions throughout europe are those areas where there is a large reliance on traditional farming systems and production of quality foods. where such farming and production systems rely on favourable climatic conditions, climate change may cause large disruptions in the rural society. farms with large investments in infrastructure, buildings, machinery, land etc., may be more vulnerable to rapid changes and require long lead times in decision making, especially in converting from one farming system to another. in the boreal region, the current forests are most vulnerable at the polar and alpine timberline, because the structure and tree species composition of forests may be modified with a loss in their value for conservation, recreation and landscaping and reindeer husbandry. at the same time, however, the timber producing capacity of these forests may increase substantially, thus providing more opportunities for forestry. in the atlantic region, the forests at the coastal areas on sandy soils with low water holding capacity (e.g. denmark) may be vulnerable due to limited water supply during summer time and the risk of wind damage. the summer drought may also affect the forests in continental europe, especially the homogenous picea abies forests especially may suffer for enhancement of attacks of insects and fungi and increase the risk of forest fire. the vulnerability of forests will be very high in the mediterranean region. this is mainly due to the summer precipitation, which no longer supports the present forest cover. this negaive effect will be further enhanced by the increasing fire risk. 21
What does one have to mind as RCMs use increasingly more realistic climate data to force regional or even local impact models?
the detail in rcms can provide for increasingly more realistic climate data to be used to force regional or even local impact models. as mentioned above, one still has to mind any systematic biases
What are used to modify observed climate data using the 'delta-change' method?
such derived changes in temperature, precipitation, etc. are used to modify observed climate data (the 'delta-change' method) and thereafter to run impact models
What is the caveat of using derived changes in temperature, precipitation, etc. to modify observed climate data and run impact models?
the caveat of getting locked within a past course of variability and extremes
the detail in rcms can provide for increasingly more realistic climate data to be used to force regional or even local impact models. as mentioned above, one still has to mind any systematic biases. not least in the context of time-slice runs, but also as a rule in the more recent transient runs, this has led to using differences inferred from rcm, between a modeled future period and a present-day period. such derived changes in temperature, precipitation, etc. are used to modify observed climate data (the 'delta-change' method) and thereafter to run impact models. the benefits are obvious, but so is the caveat of getting locked within a past course of variability and extremes. one can refine this further when the rcm bias structure is better known.70,71an emerging alternative to deltachange is to rescale or in some other way reduce systematic biases and use time series directly from
What does an increase in CO2 causes?
effective warming of the adjacent dark ocean
What happens to Stable Waterbelt states when there is only a modest rise in CO2?
cause such states to deglaciate
Why is it difficult to reconcile Waterbelt climate transitions with long-lived glaciated states and dramatic Earth system transitions?
because of the narrow range of co2 over which waterbelt climate transitions operate
stable waterbelt states with low-latitude ice margins can exist, but because an increase in co2 causes effective warming of the adjacent dark ocean, it takes only a modest rise in co2 to cause such states to deglaciate (crowley et al. 2001). in some models, such as the diffusive ebm discussed above, the ice line retreats continuously to the pole as the planet is made warmer. given a sufficiently complex model, there can be additional folds in the bifurcation diagram, in which case the waterbelt state undergoes a discontinuous transition to a state with reduced (but perhaps nonzero) ice coverage. because of the narrow range of co2 over which waterbelt climate transitions operate, it is difficult to reconcile them with the long-lived glaciated states and dramatic earth system transitions that seem to be required by the geological record. ebms have been further elaborated to incorporate the seasonal cycle, two-dimensional geographical variations, and even some aspects of ocean dynamics (crowley baum 1993, donnadieu
Since when is the drying of central Asia pronounced?
since the early 18th century
Do you find an overall consistent pattern in the East China data?
no
the mada shows wetter conditions over southeast asia and drier conditions over the extra - tropical part of the domain in central asia (figure 2). this southeast asia pattern appears to be relatively stable in time, while central asia drying is pronounced since the early 18th century (see figure s2 of the auxiliary material). a greater fraction of the domain - wide anomalies are found to be significant at the 90% confidence interval for the event lists composed of the strongest eruptions from ammann et al. [2007]. for the larger set of 54 eruptions ammann and naveau 2003], only portions of mongolia and southeast asia show coherent significant anomaly patterns. no overall coherent pattern is detected in the data in eastern china. sea on the derived pdsi from the millennium csm 1.4 simulation (figure 3) shows wetter conditions over western china and drier conditions in southeast asia and much of eastern china, although for the strongest eruptions the csm1.4 and
For what adaptive management actions are made?
establish priorities for adaptive management actions intended to maintain values and services in the assessment area
What helps to define priority watersheds?
overlaying administrative and social considerations on physical and biological vulnerabilities helps define priority watersheds for adaptive response
How results are displayed?
results for the step are displayed in narrative form and mapped
establish priorities for adaptive management actions intended to maintain values and services in the assessment area overlaying administrative and social considerations on physical and biological vulnerabilities helps define priority watersheds for adaptive response. this step depicts where funding and personnel might be best focused to ensure desired resource conditions and watershed services. recommendations for monitoring may also be included and should validate the effectiveness of adaptive responses. results for the step are displayed in narrative form and mapped. important considerations for step 5 include: * identify approaches that can enhance resilience and resistance sufficiently to protect resource values. consider which effects of climate change might be irreversible, and how that can inform priority setting.
In Cline's case, which parameters were combined to make the interest rate be r 1.5 percent per year?
like stern the essentially identical earlier formulation of cline used parameter values that made the ramsey formula (5) deliver a low interest rate--in cline's case the assumed parameter values were d 0 percent, e 1.5, g 1 percent, which combined to make the interest rate be r 1.5 percent per year
As an important part of the "discipline" of economics, what should economists understand the difference between?
an enormously important part of the "discipline" of economics is supposed to be that economists understand the difference between their own personal preferences for apples over oranges and the preferences of others for apples over oranges
How many years before Stern's, were Cline's analysis presented?
also like stern the strong activist conclusions of cline's analysis fifteen years earlier traced back to the very low discount rate being used
like stern the essentially identical earlier formulation of cline used parameter values that made the ramsey formula (5) deliver a low interest rate--in cline's case the assumed parameter values were d 0 percent, e 1.5, g 1 percent, which combined to make the interest rate be r 1.5 percent per year. also like stern the strong activist conclusions of cline's analysis fifteen years earlier traced back to the very low discount rate being used. furthermore, cline and stern are soulmates in their cri de coeur justifying d [?] 0 by relying mostly on a priori philosopher-king ethical judgements about the immorality of treating future generations differently from the current generation--instead of trying to back out what possibly more representative members of society than either cline or stern might be revealing from their behavior is their implicit rate of pure time preference. an enormously important part of the "discipline" of economics is supposed to be that economists understand the difference between their own personal preferences for apples over oranges and the preferences of others for apples over oranges. inferring society's revealed preference value of d is not an easy task in any event (here for purposes of long-term discounting, no less), but at least a good-faith effort at such an inference might have gone some way towards convincing the public that the economists doing the studies are not drawing conclusions primarily from imposing their own value judgements on the rest of the world. in part because cline's results, and where they were coming from, were more transparent (largely from not being buried within a big mysterious iam, which was not yet readily available around 1990), his study attempted to seize the analytical high ground by emphasizing that an assumed annual interest rate of r 1.5 percent is calibration-consistent with the real return on relatively safe u.s. treasury bills historically being about 1 percent or so per annum. missing from cline's reasoning was a serious discussion of the implications of risk and of
What is the most direct, but difficult to observe, indicator of the intensity of convection
the most direct, but difficult to observe, indicator of the intensity of convection is the vertical velocity of buoyant updrafts
Name 3 0utcomes of lighting according to the text
lightning is a leading cause of weather-related fatalities and property damage curran et al. 2000], is a source of nox and o3 allen and pickering 2002], and ignites forest fires price and rind 1994a
Name two benefits of updraft speed
updraft speed affects the detrainment of hydrometeors into anvil clouds and thus cloud feedback del genio et al. 2005]. it also regulates mixed-phase processes that cause lightning petersen and rutledge 2001]. lightning is a leading cause of weather-related fatalities and property damage curran et al. 2000], is a source of nox and o3 allen and pickering 2002], and ignites forest fires price and rind 1994a
it is often assumed that moist convection will be stronger in a warmer climate [e.g., hartmann 2002]. the most direct, but difficult to observe, indicator of the intensity of convection is the vertical velocity of buoyant updrafts. updraft speed affects the detrainment of hydrometeors into anvil clouds and thus cloud feedback del genio et al. 2005]. it also regulates mixed-phase processes that cause lightning petersen and rutledge 2001]. lightning is a leading cause of weather-related fatalities and property damage curran et al. 2000], is a source of nox and o3 allen and pickering 2002], and ignites forest fires price and rind 1994a]. through its connection to updraft speed boccippio 2002], lightning is sensitive to temperature and a possible indicator of climate change williams 2005]. only a few climate models parameterize updraft speed sud and walker 1999; donner et al. 2001] or treat convective microphysics. thus models usually assume fixed precipitation efficiency and utilize indirect proxies for lightning, e.g., cloud top height price and rind 1994b]. here we use a new version of the goddard institute for space studies (giss) general circulation model (gcm) to explain land-ocean differences in convective updraft speed and infer likely changes in a warmer climate.
where is the The Grand River watershed located?
the grand river watershed is located in south-western ontario
How was the landscape of the watershed been mainly shaped?
the landscape of the watershed has mainly been shaped by the last period of glaciation, resulting in highly variable soils and topography
How much of the watershed is classified as rural?
although 90% of the watershed is classified as rural, the watershed contains some of the fastest-growing urban areas in ontario, such as the cities of kitchener, waterloo, cambridge, and guelph
the grand river watershed is located in south-western ontario, draining an area of nearly 7000 km2into lake erie. the location of the watershed is shown in fig. 2 the main tributary is approximately 290 km in length with an elevation differential of about 362 m from its source to the mouth. the landscape of the watershed has mainly been shaped by the last period of glaciation, resulting in highly variable soils and topography. the southern part of the watershed consists of low permeability lacustrine clay deposits and low topographic relief. the central part is formed mostly of higher permeability sand and gravel kame moraines with moderately high relief, while the northern portion of the watershed is comprised of lower permeability till plains with varying surface relief holysh et al., 2000 ). although 90% of the watershed is classified as rural, the watershed contains some of the fastest-growing urban areas in ontario, such as the cities of kitchener, waterloo, cambridge, and guelph. not only is increasing urbanization stressing the existing water supply, but it is also placing the supply at a greater risk of contamination. there is growing concern about the environmental impact of such rapid urbanization and the ability of the river and groundwater systems to meet the rising demand for water. the recent and continuing dry conditions in southern ontario have also placed an additional stress on the hydrology and water resources of the watershed.
what will climate change do to southern africa
that southern africa will experience hotter and drier climatic conditions in the medium to long term
what does the south of africa depend on
the domestic economies depend most heavily on agriculture (mendelson et al, 2000; morton, 2007
what is uncertain on climate change for the south of africa
they are still uncertain on the frequency and severity of adverse weather events
although there is still a significant uncertainty regarding the climate change scenarios for sub-saharan africa with conflicting scenarios about which areas will get wetter and which will get drier (kinuthia, 1997), there is no doubt that the climate change/variability phenomenon is slowly setting in and the general consensus appears to be that southern africa will experience hotter and drier climatic conditions in the medium to long term. this will seriously compromise african agricultural production and access to food, since agricultural land will be lost and there will be shorter growing seasons and lower yields. in some countries, yields from rain-fed crops could be halved by 2020 (oxfam, 2007). sub-saharan african region will be hit hardest because current information is the poorest, technological change has been slowest and the domestic economies depend most heavily on agriculture (mendelson et al, 2000; morton, 2007). climate change impact studies, although they are still uncertain on the frequency and severity of adverse weather events, have shown that the effects are significant for low input farming systems, such as subsistence farming that are located in marginal areas and due to socio-economic, demographic, and policy trends have the least capacity to adapt to changing climatic conditions.
What will have a prominent role in understanding the trajectory of coastal dead zones and the prediction of their future?
historical ecology, paleoecology, and geological approaches
Is hypoxia expected to worsen with climate warming?
hypoxia can be expected to worsen for the most part with climate warming
What is one example of that may partially counteract the trend of hypoxia being worsened?
higher rates of grazing on phytoplankton blooms
as our understanding of dead zone dynamics becomes more sophisticated and we develop a better understanding of direct and indirect effects in coupled bio-physical perspectives in coastal habitats, it is increasingly apparent that comprehensive modeling techniques will be necessary to predict the dynamics of dead zones. the need for such multi-parameter approaches is apparent when considering that while hypoxia can be expected to worsen for the most part with climate warming (e.g., decreased solubility and simultaneous increases in metabolic demand, microbial activity, and stratification), some changes may partially counteract that trend (e.g., higher rates of grazing on phytoplankton blooms). for other factors (e.g., changes in storm/wind regimes) there is a high certainty that they will have a strong impact on hypoxia, but low certainty as to the nature of those changes. multiparameter physical and biological monitoring will be necessary to verify models and establish rates of responses to climate change. in some cases, the most obvious indicators of interactions between climate change and hypoxia may have already passed or been masked by apparently positive indicators of ecosystem status (altieri, 2008). this risk of a 'sliding baseline' sensu dayton et al. 1998) suggests that historical ecology, paleoecology, and geological approaches will have a prominent role in understanding the trajectory of coastal dead zones and predicting their future.
What are the two parallel narratives to climate change?
climate change discourses present two parallel narratives, one about the problems of climate change, the other about the solutions
What would a more sophisticated understanding of the process of loss and mourning do?
a more sophisticated understanding of the processes of loss and mourning, which allowed them to be restored to public narratives, would help to release energy for realistic and lasting programmes of change
What models of psychoanalytic may be particularly helpful in understanding climate change.
psychoanalytic models of grief and loss may be particularly helpful in achieving this understanding
climate change discourses present two parallel narratives, one about the problems of climate change, the other about the solutions. in narratives about the problem of climate change, loss features dramatically and terrifyingly but is located in the future or in places remote from western audiences. in narratives about solutions, loss is completely excised. this paper suggests that this division into parallel narratives is the result of a defensive process of splitting and projection that protects the public from the need to truly face and mourn the losses associated with climate change. its effect is to produce monstrous and terrifying images of the future accompanied by bland and ineffective proposals for change now. a more sophisticated understanding of the processes of loss and mourning, which allowed them to be restored to public narratives, would help to release energy for realistic and lasting programmes of change. psychoanalytic models of grief and loss may be particularly helpful in achieving this understanding. drawing on practical work with small groups in cambridge, uk, the paper proposes that william worden's typology of the tasks of mourning and their negatives provides an appropriate model both for developing a culture of truthfulness, leadership and appropriate support and for developing practical programmes that would help members of the public to work through acceptance of changes that may threaten aspiration, culture, security and identity. key words loss, mourning, identity, climate-change,
Explain discussions of proactive?
recent discussions of proactive strategies for helping forests adapt to climate change have outlined several common princi ples, including assessing risk, acknowledging uncertainty, making use of adaptive learning
Explain noval developing?
and developing novel and flexible approaches that can deal with unforeseen problems (ledig and kitzmiller, 1992; spittlehouse and stewart
Explain reflects and probability ?
which reflects the probability of an event and its consequences, depends on the desired state of our forests, climate change threats, forest vulner abilities, and the availability of adaptive management strategies
recent discussions of proactive strategies for helping forests adapt to climate change have outlined several common princi ples, including assessing risk, acknowledging uncertainty, making use of adaptive learning. and developing novel and flexible approaches that can deal with unforeseen problems (ledig and kitzmiller, 1992; spittlehouse and stewart. 2003; ohlson et ai., 2005; spittle house, 2005; millar et al.. 2007). risk. which reflects the probability of an event and its consequences, depends on the desired state of our forests, climate change threats, forest vulner abilities, and the availability of adaptive management strategies. above, we described the threats and opportunities expected from climate change, assuming that the current forest condition is close to society's goal. chief concerns are projected increases in droughts. fires. pest outbreaks. and winter (chilling) temperatures. long-term studies are needed to help elucidate how climate-related stressors (particularly drought. pests. and fire) will interact to influence for est responses to climate change. we expect that elevated [c02
What do Cpi studies provide? They provide some interesting examples of how targeted injections of public resources played a key role
cpi case studies provide some interesting examples of how targeted injections of public resources played a key role in
What examples do CPI case studies provide? Making local funders aware of the business opportunities associated with green technologies
cpi case studies provide some interesting examples of how targeted injections of public resources played a key role in, for example, making local financiers aware of commercial opportunities associated with green technologies, building consumer demand and improving the quality and reliability of installations
What other examples do the studies provide? Promote research, development and demonstration of innovative technologies. * Develop real and virtual platforms and knowledge centers
other examples include the following opportunities: * promote research, development, and the demonstration of innovative technologies. * develop actual and virtual knowledge platforms and centers. * build the awareness and capacity of key public and private stakeholders to engage * improve labeling and accreditation schemes
cpi case studies provide some interesting examples of how targeted injections of public resources played a key role in, for example, making local financiers aware of commercial opportunities associated with green technologies, building consumer demand and improving the quality and reliability of installations,59 and improving monitoring and enforcement.60 other examples include the following opportunities: * promote research, development, and the demonstration of innovative technologies. * develop actual and virtual knowledge platforms and centers. * build the awareness and capacity of key public and private stakeholders to engage * improve labeling and accreditation schemes (for example establish energy efficiency codes, training for suppliers).61
What is being hypothesized?
we hypothesized that: (1) species with broader diets would show greater advancement in phenology, as they would be less dependent on tracking the phenology of individual host plants; (2) species with more advanced overwintering stages would show greater advancement in phenology, as overwintering adults are more mobile than other developmental stages and can readily respond to warmer spring temperatures without the need for further development; (3) species with greater dispersal ability and larger range size would show less advancement in phenology, as these species would have a greater ability to track their current habitats; and (4) multivoltine species would show greater advancement in phenology, as climate warming has been linked to increased voltinism in butterflies (altermatt 2010), and multivoltine species might also be more likely to show greater advances in phenology
What is the focus of the analyses?
we focused our analyses on several species' traits that have been suggested to influence the ability of butterflies to respond to climate change (dennis 1993, forrest and miller-rushing 2010): diet breadth, overwintering stage, dispersal ability, and range size
What are the advantages in species with broader diets?
species with broader diets would show greater advancement in phenology, as they would be less dependent on tracking the phenology of individual host plants
we focused our analyses on several species' traits that have been suggested to influence the ability of butterflies to respond to climate change (dennis 1993, forrest and miller-rushing 2010): diet breadth, overwintering stage, dispersal ability, and range size. specifically, we hypothesized that: (1) species with broader diets would show greater advancement in phenology, as they would be less dependent on tracking the phenology of individual host plants; (2) species with more advanced overwintering stages would show greater advancement in phenology, as overwintering adults are more mobile than other developmental stages and can readily respond to warmer spring temperatures without the need for further development; (3) species with greater dispersal ability and larger range size would show less advancement in phenology, as these species would have a greater ability to track their current habitats; and (4) multivoltine species would show greater advancement in phenology, as climate warming has been linked to increased voltinism in butterflies (altermatt 2010), and multivoltine species might also be more likely to show greater advances in phenology. materials and methods
What are two of the measures designed to mitigate the contribution the four counties make to climate change?
he plan thus calls for increased availability of public transportation, the implementation of energy-efficiency standards, and the adoption of a "green rating" system to constrain carbon emissions associated with construction and other public works
What are two of The Plan goals for infrastructure threatened by rising sea levels and storm surges?
the plan goals include construction of protective barriers for hospitals, power-generating facilities, and other key elements of infrastructure threatened by rising sea levels and storm surges
Will the effects of the climate mitigation efforts make a big difference?
the effects of the member counties' climate mitigation efforts will be admittedly modest-- indeed, wholly immaterial in relation to the dynamics at work in global climate change. but they mean something; they are part of the package of collective initiatives identified as worthy of being pursued by the city planners, business groups, and resident associations--by the conservation organizations, civic associations, and religious groups--who all took part in the public and highly participatory process that generated the plan
many of these, understandably, are geared to protecting the region from anticipated threats. the plan goals include construction of protective barriers for hospitals, power-generating facilities, and other key elements of infrastructure threatened by rising sea levels and storm surges; the enactment of building codes to assure that existing and new structures are fortified against severe weather; measures to protect water sources essential both for residential use and for agriculture and other local businesses. but included too are a variety of measures designed to mitigate the contribution the four counties make to climate change. the plan thus calls for increased availability of public transportation, the implementation of energy-efficiency standards, and the adoption of a "green rating" system to constrain carbon emissions associated with construction and other public works. the effects of the member counties' climate mitigation efforts will be admittedly modest-- indeed, wholly immaterial in relation to the dynamics at work in global climate change. but they mean something; they are part of the package of collective initiatives identified as worthy of being pursued by the city planners, business groups, and resident associations--by the conservation organizations, civic associations, and religious groups--who all took part in the public and highly participatory process that generated the plan.
What are the two psychological functions that the continued use of fear messages can take?
the first is to control the external danger, the second to control the internal fear
Give examples of internal fear controls
as issue denial and apathy
What can repeated exposure to frightening representations of climate change cause?
provoke a counterintuitive reaction, for example, causing the message to become laughable
the continued use of fear messages can lead to one of two psychological functions. the first is to control the external danger, the second to control the internal fear (moser dilling, 2004). if the external danger--in this case, the impacts of climate change--cannot be controlled (or is not perceived to be controllable), then individuals will attempt to control the internal fear. these internal fear controls, such as issue denial and apathy, can represent barriers to meaningful engagement. lorenzoni et al. (2007) divide the barriers to engagement with climate change, into two types, individual-level and social-level barriers. of particular consequence for this discussion of fear appeals are the barriers acting individually to inhibit engagement with climate change. these include uncertainty and skepticism, an externalization of responsibility and blame or stating other issues as more immediate and pressing, and fatalism or a "drop in the ocean" feeling. all are maladaptations; that is, they lead to an individual controlling his or her internal fear by no longer interacting with the climate change issue, but the action does not decrease the individual's exposure to climate risk. repeated exposure to fearful representations of climate change may indeed even provoke a counterintuitive reaction, for example, causing the message to become laughable. ereaut and segnit (2006, pp. 14-15) recognized this in their report investigating public climate discourses in the united kingdom. they named one of the apparent public discourses as "settlerdom." the settlerdom discourse rejects and mocks an alarmist discourse.
During which phase were there changes seen in pollen levels?
there are significant changes in our pollen diagrams (figs 9-11) and in those from the previous studies (richard 1980; garralla gajewski 1992; gajewski et al 1993) only during initial afforestation phase
When did the fire interval rise?
but fire interval did not rise until several millennia later
Apart from Combustability, what else can influence connectivity?
as well as vegetation affecting fuel combustibility, composition can influence connectivity
there are significant changes in our pollen diagrams (figs 9-11) and in those from the previous studies (richard 1980; garralla gajewski 1992; gajewski et al 1993) only during initial afforestation phase, but fire interval did not rise until several millennia later. earlier afforestation at a la pessiere when east canada experienced high fire incidences (carcaillet richard 2000) is reflected in a short period with low fire interval. fire frequency at the mixed-boreal sites shifted about 2000 years ago but the shift towards pollen indicating a more flammable vegetation occurred later at francis (1300 cal. years  and too much in advance for it to determine fire regime at pas-de-fond (3500 cal. years  ). as well as vegetation affecting fuel combustibility, composition can influence connectivity (structure is +- packed). the combined effects of fires and climate cooling have led to more open or fragmented communities at the northern limit of the boreal forest over the last 2000 years without retreat of the tree-line (see payette lavoie 1994). however, in the hearth of the boreal forest, there is no obvious evidence of opening or fragmenting processes that might have modified fuel connectivity and density (gajewski et al 1993), and this is supported by a stable pollen diagram as at a la pessiere. even the fall in pollen concentration at francis after 2000 cal. years  that could result from decreasing density of trees, could also be due to lower per-tree production, or simply to a local change in the sedimentation rate. in the absence of unequivocal supporting data we conclude that the vegetation in the coniferousand the mixed-boreal forest is unlikely to
What is the main determinant of the birth rate? Use of contraceptives in the population
because contraceptive use in a population is the major determinant of birth rate and hence population growth or decline, family planning
What is family planning? Family planning is not only an adaptation to climate change, but also a mitigation strategy to reach a sustainable population
amily planning is not just an adaptation to climatic change but also a mitigation strategy to achieve a sustainable population
How do you see obstacles to the effective use of family planning? They are seen as complex
obstacles to eff ective use of family planning are complex
because contraceptive use in a population is the major determinant of birth rate and hence population growth or decline, family planning is not just an adaptation to climatic change but also a mitigation strategy to achieve a sustainable population (panel 5). the predicted population increase is unsustainable and will severely exacerbate the issues of urbanisation in developing nations. obstacles to eff ective use of family planning are complex, but much experience exists in providing family planning services that can meet the needs of about one in six women worldwide who want to delay or cease childbearing but cannot access eff ective contraceptive methods. according to the un population fund, many women in every country report that their last birth was unwanted or mistimed. the 1994 international conference on population and development in cairo (egypt) emphasised the importance of reproductive health and of empowering women to take charge of their reproductive lives. the poorest people have the least access to, and greatest need for, contraceptive services; however, since 1994, funding for family planning programmes has been reduced, partly because of the diversion of funds to hiv/aids. additionally, us agency for international development (usaid) funds under republican administrations have been subject to the gag rule, which stipulated that, to be eligible for usaid funding, an organisation could not spend any funding from any other source on abortion-related activities. this rule was repealed by president obama in early 2009, so family planning service delivery is hoped to improve in the future in the poorest countries.
How many noise assumptions lead to principle?
the three noise assumptions lead to principles
What is the use of comparison data?
using comparison data from that region can send a false negative signal
however,presencerecordsmustbematchedtoenvironmental data from the same time period as when they themselves were collected. owing to heterogeneities in the abiotic conditions available, broad spatial and temporal sampling increases the likelihood that the data encompass the full environmental domain of the species' tolerances, and hence fulfill the niche space assumption (table 4). following this principle is relevant whether or not the application at hand requires transfer. however, combining data collected in different regions and time periods assumes no genetic differences across space or time (for traits related to the species' response to the examined abiotic variables), or heterogeneity in the nature of relevant biotic interactions (see section "transfer across space or time"). while broad spatial and temporal sampling should tend to help match the niche space assumption, it can either increase or decrease the likelihood of fulfilling the noise assumptions. for example, broad spatial and temporal sampling can either dilute or reinforce any environmental biases caused by dispersal-related or demographic factors (violation of the dispersal/demographic noise assumption), depending on whether individual regions or time periods suffer similar or different biases.thesameappliestothebioticnoiseassumption and human noise assumption. however, it seems likely that combining data from a variety of biotic contextspresentacrossspaceandtimewouldtendto yield less biased information regarding the species' response to the abiotic predictor variables, at least regarding the extreme values of its tolerances. additionally, the three noise assumptions lead to principles for selecting occurrence data for use in niche models (table 4). these principles apply simultaneously to both presence records and comparison data, although emphasis usually lies on the latter. in selecting a study region for modeling, a researcher aims to avoid regions where nonequilibrium distributions reduce or distort the species' response to abiotic variables. for example, if the focal species is absent from a region of abiotically suitable conditions because it never dispersed there (or went extinct), using comparison data from that region can send a false negative signal (if the dispersal/demographic noise assumption is violated).29,30similarly, if the biotic context does
What does UNFCCC estimated?
the unfccc estimated national water resource availability in relation to large-area projections of national rainfall, and then compared availability with expected demand
How could it assumed?
t assumed that a quarter of the total cost of adaptation due to changes in demand and supply would be due to changes in supply resulting from climate change (i.e. $11 billion per year
What is the ratio given by UNFCCC for agriculture?
this 1:3 ratio contrasts with 1:40 given by the unfccc for agriculture
the unfccc estimated national water resource availability in relation to large-area projections of national rainfall, and then compared availability with expected demand. it assumed that a quarter of the total cost of adaptation due to changes in demand and supply would be due to changes in supply resulting from climate change (i.e. $11 billion per year). this 1:3 ratio contrasts with 1:40 given by the unfccc for agriculture. the study worked at the national level only, assuming that water resources could be transferred within a country from areas of surplus to areas of deficit. for small countries this would not be a problem, but for large ones it is unrealistic and probably a source of under-estimation of true cost. to illustrate, for a single basin in china (huang ho) the annual costs of adapting to climate change could be $0.5 billion per year (see chapter 3 in this report). unfortunately, few such studies are currently available and are insufficient for drawing reliable conclusions. the unfccc costs include that of water provision, but not of adapting to altered flood risk in river basins. these altered flood management costs may be very substantial (potentially $0.1- 0.2 billion annually in the sacramento basin in california alone), but there have been no consistent inter-comparisons of costs in different parts of the water sector. the use of an average climate change scenario rather than an ensemble which describes the range of possible impacts has probably led the unfccc to under-estimate the costs of providing for the full range waterstorage need. in all, these costs omitted from the unfccc could be very substantial.
What values positively associate a person with climate change policy support?
dietz et al.59reported that altruism (a self-transcendent value) was positively (although indirectly) associated with policy support (the effect was mediated by environmental attitudes
What did the first study that examined values and beliefs find in regards to predicting a person's acceptance of climate change policy?
the study found that willingness to accept policy measures was positively related to self-transcendent values
What types of values are categorized as self-transcendent?
subsequent research conducted since these initial studies has confirmed that people who endorse biospheric and altruistic (i.e., self-transcendent) values are more likely
although there is a great deal of literature on public perceptions of climate change that predates it, the first publication to explicitly examine the relationship between values and beliefs about climate change focused on predicting acceptance of policy measures aimed at mitigating climate change.58the study found that willingness to accept policy measures was positively related to self-transcendent values. at around the same time, and also focusing on willingness to support specific policy prescriptions for climate change mitigation, dietz et al.59reported that altruism (a self-transcendent value) was positively (although indirectly) associated with policy support (the effect was mediated by environmental attitudes). subsequent research conducted since these initial studies has confirmed that people who endorse biospheric and altruistic (i.e., self-transcendent) values are more likely
what does Indigenous peoples' exposure to climate change tied to?
indigenous peoples' exposure to climate change is also tied to several important external factors including economic pressures (i.e. mining, development, commercial agriculture, market economics) and legal and political uncertainties (i.e. lack of legal recognition of property rights, access to the political system, pressure from law enforcement, etc.). indigenous socio-cultural institutions and governance structures are also exposed to the impacts of climate change
what does Indigenous peoples rely on?
indigenous peoples rely on complex socio-cultural governing systems and on their traditional knowledge to predict and prepare for seasonal and climate changes
climate change is increasing existing vulnerabilities of indigenous peoples by threatening the assets that indigenous peoples depend on for their livelihoods and wellbeing: land, socio-cultural practices, governance structures and natural resources. this heightened exposure is compounded by the fact that many indigenous peoples in the americas directly depend on natural resources often found in already environmentally fragile areas (high altitude zones, deserts, tropics, etc.). experience also shows that vulnerability to climate change increases when combined with poverty, ill-maintained infrastructure and inadequate political structures (kronik and verner, 2010a). indigenous peoples' exposure to climate change is also tied to several important external factors including economic pressures (i.e. mining, development, commercial agriculture, market economics) and legal and political uncertainties (i.e. lack of legal recognition of property rights, access to the political system, pressure from law enforcement, etc.). indigenous socio-cultural institutions and governance structures are also exposed to the impacts of climate change. indigenous peoples rely on complex socio-cultural governing systems and on their traditional knowledge to predict and prepare for seasonal and climate changes (verner, 2010). but climate change is making it more difficult for indigenous peoples to accurately predict or adequately prepare for unforeseen changes, resulting in loss of social and political capital. for instance, traditional elders, considered local experts by their respective groups, may lose credibility when climatic conditions become increasingly difficult to predict. this may undermine traditional governance and political structures, sacred rituals, and the ability to maintain social order and cohesion (adger, 2003; kronik and verner, 2010a).
What is the most useful knowledge?
within hotly contested debates and in the study of wicked and complex open - system issues, in fact the most useful knowledge is of that different sort
Are there any doubts?
it pertains to what we know that we do not know, or to where there remains much doubt or disagreement
How will this knowledge help us?
hat knowledge will help us to grade our certainty, to sensitise us to the significance of the unexpected and to make connections that others do not see
within hotly contested debates and in the study of wicked and complex open - system issues, in fact the most useful knowledge is of that different sort. it pertains to what we know that we do not know, or to where there remains much doubt or disagreement. then we can consider why we don't know or have doubts. that knowledge will help us to grade our certainty, to sensitise us to the significance of the unexpected and to make connections that others do not see: for example, professor dame jocelyn bell burnell as a graduate student at cambridge in december 1967 spotting the radio signals which led to discovery of pulsars, or james lovelock looking for signs of life on mars which led him to the gaia hypothesis of a self - regulating, life - supporting atmosphere on earth. in that way we can make credible progress.41
What is notable about the severity of model inadequacy?
the severity of model inadequacy suggests a more qualitative interpretation than one might wish
What value does each model interpret?
each model run is of value as it presents a 'what if' scenario from which we may learn about the model or the earth system
we have categorized various challenges in relating complex climate models to statements about the real world's future climate. the severity of model inadequacy suggests a more qualitative interpretation than one might wish. in particular, it is not at all clear that weighted combinations of results from today's complex climate models based on their ability to reproduce a set of observation can provide decisionrelevant probabilities. furthermore, they are liable to be misleading because the conclusions, usually in the form of pdfs, imply much greater confidence than the underlying assumptions justify; we know our current models are inadequate and we know many of the reasons why they are so. we have described several methods for presenting the results of large ensembles without assuming realism for any individual model, or indeed that any version of a model in the current class of models is close to realistic. these methods aim to increase our ability to communicate the appropriate degree of confidence in said results. each model run is of value as it presents a 'what if' scenario from which we may learn about the model or the earth system. such insights can hold non-trivial value for decision making. what then is the way forward for complex climate models and for their use in informing society about the changes we might expect in the earth's climate through the twenty-first century? first, we must acknowledge that there are many areas for model improvement. examples are the inclusion of a stratosphere, a carbon cycle, atmospheric/oceanic chemistry at some degree of complexity, ice-sheet dynamics, and realistic (i.e. statistically plausible equivalents of real-world behaviour) enso structures, land surface schemes (critical for exploration of regional feedbacks),
What is imagined to be needed to sustained a level of reduction in GHG intensity at a pace completely unprecedented in human history.
it is hard to imagine how it can be accomplished without enormous changes in energy and other technologies at a pace completely unprecedented in human history
What have to be overcome faster the higher the rate of economic growth?
there are other pressing global environmental problems rockstrom et al., 2009 and resource constraints that have to be overcome faster the higher the rate of economic growth
What does a slower rate of economic growth require?
a slower rate of economic growth requires a slower and, arguably, more manageable rate of transformation of the economy and society at large
please cite this article as: victor, p.a., growth, degrowth and climate change: a scenario analysis, ecol. econ. (2011), doi: 10.1016/ j.ecolecon.2011.04.013 while no one can say for certain that such a sustained level of reduction in ghg intensity is impossible, it is hard to imagine how it can be accomplished without enormous changes in energy and other technologies at a pace completely unprecedented in human history. and this is only to deal with climate change. there are other pressing global environmental problems rockstrom et al., 2009 and resource constraints that have to be overcome faster the higher the rate of economic growth relating, for example, to energy supplies ayres and warr, 2009 and critical materials ad-hoc working group on de fi ning critical raw materials,2010 ). a slower rate of economic growth requires a slower and, arguably, more manageable rate of transformation of the economy and society at large, though very signi fi cant challenges will remain.2
What have shown that individuals disposed to be skeptical of climate change become more so?
multiple studies, using a variety of cognitive proficiency measures, have shown that individuals disposed to be skeptical of climate change become more so as their proficiency and disposition to use the forms of reasoning associated with system 2 increase
Who do become more alarmed and when?
those who are culturally predisposed to be worried about climate change do become more alarmed as they become more proficient in analytical reasoning
Which individuals have higher polarization?
polarization is in fact higher among individuals who are disposed to make use of system 2, analytic reasoning
this manifestly does not occur. multiple studies, using a variety of cognitive proficiency measures, have shown that individuals disposed to be skeptical of climate change become more so as their proficiency and disposition to use the forms of reasoning associated with system 2 increase (hamilton, 2011; hamilton, cutler, schaefer, 2012; kahan, peters, wittlin, et al., 2012). in part for this reason-- and in part because those who are culturally predisposed to be worried about climate change do become more alarmed as they become more proficient in analytical reasoning--polarization is in fact higher among individuals who are disposed to make use of system 2, analytic reasoning, than it is among those disposed to rely on system 1, heuristic reasoning (kahan, peters, wittlin, et al., 2012). this is the result observed among individuals who are highest in osi, which in fact includes numeracy and cognitive reflection test items shown to predict resistance to system 1 cognitive biases (figure 7).
What are the major concerns for sustainable development in the ecosystem?
the increasing degradation and reducing capacity of ecosystems to provide services are major concerns for sustainable development and the vulnerability of society to climate change, as ecosystem services help reduce exposure or sensitivity and increase adaptive capacity of most sectors of the society
as tropical forests are vulnerable to climate change, management and - conservation practices should integrate climate change threats and aim to reduce vulnerabilities. adaptation options have already been defined for buffering forests from perturbations or for facilitating a shift or 'evolution' of forests towards new states adapted to changing climate conditions. the need for flexible and diversified approaches in forest adaptation is heightened by uncertainties. tropical forests provide important provisioning, regulating and cultural - services that contribute to human wellbeing at scales from local to global. the increasing degradation and reducing capacity of ecosystems to provide services are major concerns for sustainable development and the vulnerability of society to climate change, as ecosystem services help reduce exposure or sensitivity and increase adaptive capacity of most sectors of the society. therefore, vulnerability assessment should consider the vulnerability of these sectors as well as the vulnerability of the ecosystems they depend on. adaptation measures need to be implemented and policies need to be - designed to facilitate the adaptation of tropical forests and to enhance the role of forests for the adaptation of society. in addition to mainstreaming adaptation into development, forest needs to be taken into consideration in adaptation strategies. national policy should promote adaptation for forests--adaptation policies that encourage the adaptive management of forests. at the same time, they should promote forests for adaptation--
What is the impact of global climate change?
the impacts of global climate change on food systems are expected to be widespread, complex, geographically and temporally variable, and profoundly influenced by preexisting and emerging social and economic conditions
What is the main sources of scientific knowledge?
the main sources of scientific knowledge on food systems under climate change are a historical statistical studies of impacts of weather anomalies and climatic trends on food systems (56-58); and b integrated assessment models that link the direct impacts of weather on plant and animal physiology and on yields with downstream impacts on prices, reliability of delivery, food quality, and food safety, and sometimes with further extrapolation to human welfare outcomes, such as the prevalence of malnutrition (59-61
Describe about  Ricardian approach?
a third, less common, approach is ricardian (hedonic) analyses of land values, which account for farmers' allocations of activities across time and across landscapes. hertel rosch (62) and challinor et al. (63) provide explanations of the various approaches
the impacts of global climate change on food systems are expected to be widespread, complex, geographically and temporally variable, and profoundly influenced by preexisting and emerging social and economic conditions. the main sources of scientific knowledge on food systems under climate change are a historical statistical studies of impacts of weather anomalies and climatic trends on food systems (56-58); and b integrated assessment models that link the direct impacts of weather on plant and animal physiology and on yields with downstream impacts on prices, reliability of delivery, food quality, and food safety, and sometimes with further extrapolation to human welfare outcomes, such as the prevalence of malnutrition (59-61). a third, less common, approach is ricardian (hedonic) analyses of land values, which account for farmers' allocations of activities across time and across landscapes. hertel rosch (62) and challinor et al. (63) provide explanations of the various approaches. major uncertainties within these integrated assessment models include uncertainty about the direction and rate of climate change at subglobal levels and about the extent to which mitigation and adaptation actions and their feedbacks are included. a drawback of both statistical and hedonic studies is the limited possibility for extrapolation beyond climatic conditions already experienced historically. there is also considerable difficulty in distinguishing climate change from other key drivers of change in food systems (6, 64). nonetheless, there is sufficient evidence that climate change will affect not only food yields but also food quality and safety, and the reliability of its delivery, as discussed in the subsections below. in particular, management of food safety is emerging as a major area of concern for future food systems under climate change.
What term is used to indicate that the solids are present as suspended solids?
sometimes the term particulate is used to indicate that the solids are present as suspended solids
What does the water analysis results based on typical filter papers show?
water analysis results based on typical filter papers show that the major part of colloidal solids is separated as filterable (dissolved) solids
The division of _____ by size is above all a practical division.
the division of solids by size is above all a practical division
non-settleable suspended solids a) classification by size the division of solids by size is above all a practical division. for convention it can be said that particles of smaller dimensions capable of passing through a filter paper of a specific size correspond to the dissolved solids while those with larger dimensions and retained by the filter are considered suspended solids to be more precise, the terms filterable dissolved) solids and non-filterable suspended) solids are more adequate. in an intermediate range there are the colloidal solids, whichareofimportanceinwatertreatment,butaredifficulttoidentifybythesimple method of paper filtration. water analysis results based on typical filter papers show that the major part of colloidal solids is separated as filterable (dissolved) solids. sometimes the term particulate is used to indicate that the solids are present as suspended solids. in this context, expressions as particulate bod, cod, phosphorus, etc. are used, to indicate that they are linked to suspended solids. in contrast, soluble bod, cod and phosphorus are associated with dissolved solids. 36 to wastewater characteristics, treatment and disposal
What has been widely advocated as a strategy for enhancing resistance and resilience to drought?
reducing tree densities through silvicultural thinning has been widely advocated as a strategy for enhancing resistance and resilience to drought, yet few empirical evaluations of this approach exist
What did we examine in detail?
we examined detailed dendrochronological data from a long-term 50 years) replicated thinning experiment to determine if density reductions conferred greater resistance and/or resilience to droughts, assessed by the magnitude of standlevel growth reductions
What did the results gathered suggest?
our results suggest that thinning generally enhanced drought resistance and resilience; however, this relationship showed a pronounced reversal over time in stands maintained at lower tree densities
reducing tree densities through silvicultural thinning has been widely advocated as a strategy for enhancing resistance and resilience to drought, yet few empirical evaluations of this approach exist. we examined detailed dendrochronological data from a long-term 50 years) replicated thinning experiment to determine if density reductions conferred greater resistance and/or resilience to droughts, assessed by the magnitude of standlevel growth reductions. our results suggest that thinning generally enhanced drought resistance and resilience; however, this relationship showed a pronounced reversal over time in stands maintained at lower tree densities. specifically, lower-density stands exhibited greater resistance and resilience at younger ages (49 years), yet exhibited lower resistance and resilience at older ages (76 years), relative to higher-density stands. we attribute this reversal to significantly greater tree sizes attained within the lower-density stands through stand development, which in turn increased tree-level water demand during the later droughts. results from response-function analyses indicate that thinning altered growth-climate relationships, such that higher-density stands were more sensitive to growing-season precipitation relative to lower-density stands. these results confirm the potential of density management to moderate drought impacts on growth, and they highlight the importance of accounting for stand structure when predicting climate-change impacts to forests.
Over how many years was the data collected?
requisite data were collected over the course of two academic years
Which grades were sampled?
requisite data were collected over the course of two academic years in a large sample of students in grades 5, 8, and 11
What factors make a student more likely to bully?
youth having high normative approval of this behavior and negative perceptions of school climate should be most likely to bully
this research tested the two previously stated hypotheses bearing on school climate and the normative approval of bullying. additionally, the interrelationships between school climate, self-esteem, and bullying behavior were empirically examined. requisite data were collected over the course of two academic years in a large sample of students in grades 5, 8, and 11 attending 78 schools or community centers across colorado. besides estimating independent effects of each predictor, interaction effects were also estimated to determine whether the nature of the school climate (a contextual predictor) moderated the relations between normative beliefs, self-esteem (individual predictors), and bullying behavior. the rationale for expecting moderating influences can be summarized succinctly. because bullying is an interpersonal and dynamic process embedded within a social context, higher self-esteem should lead to an increased frequency of bullying only when that context, as measured by perceived school climate is viewed as negative. conversely, higher selfesteem should result in lower levels of bullying when the school context is perceived as positive. the reason for these expectations is that in a less supportive school setting, bullying may be an effective currency for feeling good about oneself and gaining status and respect. in contrast, within a school setting perceived as supportive, students should be more likely to derive self-esteem from active participation in cooperative, fair, and prosocial activities. a similar pattern of interrelatedness between normative approval of bullying, school climate, and bullying behavior was expected. youth having high normative approval of this behavior and negative perceptions of school climate should be most likely to bully, with the influence of normative approval being dampened by positive perceptions of school climate. in
What does releasing water from a dam do?
releasing water from a dam allows for the application of highly regulated experimental treatments and assessments of effects
What is one of the critical challenges?
the critical challenge will be to state explicit scientific hypotheses; establish monitoring programs with predefined triggers that initiate a re-examination of management approaches; and create flexible policies and institutional frameworks
What is an example of adaptive management in climate change?
examples include flood release experiments in the grand canyon (baron and others 2008 and at the glen canyon dam (national research council 1999
block 2001 stankey and others 2003 ). adaptive management in the context of climate change involves the consideration of potential climate impacts, the design of management actions that take those impacts into account, monitoring of climate-sensitive species and processes to measure management effectiveness, and the redesign and implementation of improved (or new) management actions. examples include flood release experiments in the grand canyon (baron and others 2008 and at the glen canyon dam (national research council 1999 ). releasing water from a dam allows for the application of highly regulated experimental treatments and assessments of effects. recent examinations of the difficulty of implementing adaptive management have emphasized that the temporal and spatial scale, dimensions of uncertainty, risks, and insufficient institutional support can create major difficulties with applying adaptive management. when one considers adaptive management in response to climate change, every one of these potential difficulties is at play (arvai and others 2006 gregory and others 2006 ). the critical challenge will be to state explicit scientific hypotheses; establish monitoring programs with predefined triggers that initiate a re-examination of management approaches; and create flexible policies and institutional frameworks (gregory and others 2006 ). these challenges do not mean adaptive management is impossible--only that attention to hypotheses, monitoring, periodic re-evaluations, and flexibility are necessary.
What do the black circles represent?
1990-2008
What do the colored lines represent?
the six sres illustrative marker scenarios
What does the inset in the upper left corner show?
these scenarios to the year 2100
note: "the graph shows that estimates of annual industrial co<s112>2 emissions in gigatons of carbon per year (gtc yr<s112>-1) for 1990-2008 (black circles) and for 2009 (open circle) fall within the range of all 40 sres scenarios (grey shaded area) and of the six sres illustrative marker scenarios (colored lines). the inset in the upper left corner shows these scenarios to the year 2100." adapted by permission from macmillan publishers ltd: adapted by permission from macmillan publishers ltd: nature geoscience "misrepresentation of the ipcc co2 emission scenarios," by m. r. manning et al., vol. 3, issue 6, pp. 376-377, figure 1, copyright 2010.
What connects projections of future changes in the water cycle?
projections of future changes in the water cycle are inextricably connected to changes in the energy cycle (section 12.4.3) and atmospheric circulation (section 12.4.4
What does saturation vapour pressure increases with?
saturation vapour pressure increases with temperature, but projected future changes in the water cycle are far more complex than projected temperature changes
What will some regions of the world be subjected to?
some regions of the world will be subject to decreases in hydrologic activity while others will be subject to increases
projections of future changes in the water cycle are inextricably connected to changes in the energy cycle (section 12.4.3) and atmospheric circulation (section 12.4.4). saturation vapour pressure increases with temperature, but projected future changes in the water cycle are far more complex than projected temperature changes. some regions of the world will be subject to decreases in hydrologic activity while others will be subject to increases. there are important local seasonal differences among the responses of the water cycle to climate change as well. at first sight, the water cycles simulated by cmip3/5 models may appear to be inconsistent, particularly at regional scales. anthropogenic changes to the water cycle are superimposed on complex naturally varying modes of the climate (such as el nino-southern oscillation (enso), ao, pacific decadal oscillation (pdo), etc.) aggravating the differences between model projections. however, by careful consideration of the interaction of the water cycle with changes in other aspects of the climate system, the mechanisms of change are revealed, increasing confidence in projections.
What is the average warming rate expected in the Pacific Northwest during the next 50 years?
the average warming rate in the pacific northwest during the next ~50 yr is expected to be in the range 0.1-0.6degc (0.2-1.0degf) per decade, with a best estimate of 0.3degc (0.5degf) per decade
What is the greater season to project?
projected warming is greater in summer than in other seasons
What are the projections models in winter and summer?
most models have winter precipitation increasing and summer precipitation decreasing
the average warming rate in the pacific northwest during the next ~50 yr is expected to be in the range 0.1-0.6degc (0.2-1.0degf) per decade, with a best estimate of 0.3degc (0.5degf) per decade. for comparison, observed warming in the second half of the 20th century was approximately 0.2degc per decade. trends in temperature already stand out above natural variability. projected warming is greater in summer than in other seasons. present-day patterns of greenhouse gas emissions constrain the rate of change of temperature for the next few decades: humans are committed to some degree of additional climate change. beyond mid-century, the projections of warming depend increasingly on emissions in the next few decades and hence on actions that would limit or increase emissions. projected precipitation changes are modest, and are unlikely to be distinguishable from natural variability until late in the 21st century. most models have winter precipitation increasing and summer precipitation decreasing. early results suggest an increase in intense precipitation but little change in coastal upwelling.
How is settlerdom discourse invoked?
by invoking a feeling of common sense in their audience
How was the discourse "British comic nihilism" characterized?
by a whimsical and unserious nature and a happy refusal to engage in the debate
What unintended consequences may be represented by both discourses?
repeated exposure to communications approaches depending on threat and fear
those invoking the settlerdom discourse do so by invoking a feeling of common sense in their audience, not through expert discourse or debate. the authors find the discourse is constructed in terms of the "sane majority" against the "doom mongers" or the "global warming brigade." also mentioned by ereaut and segnit is a small but potentially important discourse defined as "british comic nihilism," or "bugger it and open another bottle." the discourse was characterized by a whimsical and unserious nature and a happy refusal to engage in the debate. both of these discourses may represent unintended consequences of repeated exposure to communications approaches depending on threat and fear.
What kind of animals have their metabolic rates estimated in figure 4?
supplementary fig. 4 spatially explicit estimate of the effect of recent climate change on metabolic rates of freshwater animals (a, b), terrestrial animals, (c, d), and marine animals (e, f
How are the changes in metabolic rate expressed?
changes in metabolic rates are expressed as the percent change between 1990 to 2010 of an animal in the same location, calculated using either the acute thermal sensitivity of metabolic rates (a, c, e) or the acclimation sensitivity of metabolic rates (b, d, f
On what are predictions based?
predictions are based on the change in climate at each location, and the mean thermal sensitivity of the species from each habitat
supplementary fig. 4 spatially explicit estimate of the effect of recent climate change on metabolic rates of freshwater animals (a, b), terrestrial animals, (c, d), and marine animals (e, f). changes in metabolic rates are expressed as the percent change between 1990 to 2010 of an animal in the same location, calculated using either the acute thermal sensitivity of metabolic rates (a, c, e) or the acclimation sensitivity of metabolic rates (b, d, f). predictions are based on the change in climate at each location, and the mean thermal sensitivity of the species from each habitat. on the percent scale 0% represents rates estimated for 1990, orange to red colouring indicates an increase in rates from 1990-2010, green indicates no change, and blue colouring
Why are loamy soils (medium texture) indicated?
loamy soils (medium texture) are indicated because they exhibit the best balance for wastewater renovation and drainage
What should be the depth of the water?
the depth to the water table should be greater than 1.5 m to prevent groundwater contamination
What can happen in wet areas?
on the other hand, in wet areas, the application of wastewater in rainy periods can lead to anaerobic conditions and consequently odour and insect appearance problems
loamy soils (medium texture) are indicated because they exhibit the best balance for wastewater renovation and drainage. the depth to the water table should be greater than 1.5 m to prevent groundwater contamination. the application rates must be compatible with the evapotranspiration of the crop in the period, therefore depending on the type of crop and the climatic conditions. in arid zones, wastewater can be used for irrigation throughout the year. on the other hand, in wet areas, the application of wastewater in rainy periods can lead to anaerobic conditions and consequently odour and insect appearance problems. irrigation constitutes a treatment/disposal system that requires the largest surface area per unit of wastewater treated. on the other hand, it is the natural system with the highest efficiency. the plants are those mainly responsible for the removal of nutrients, such as phosphorus and nitrogen, while the microorganisms in the soil perform the removal of the organic substances. there is also a high removal of pathogenic organisms during the percolation through the soil (mattos, 1998). b) rapid infiltration the objective of the rapid infiltration system is to use the soil as a filtering medium for the wastewater. this system is characterised by the percolation of the wastewater, which is purified by the filtering action of the porous medium. the percolated wastewater may be used for groundwater recharge or be collected by underdrains or wells. the rapid infiltration method requires the lowest area within all the land disposal processes. wastewater is applied in shallow infiltration basins, from which wastewater percolates through the soil. the application is intermittent, in order to allow a resting period for the soil, during which the soil dries and re-establishes aerobic conditions. due to the higher application rates, evaporation losses are small and most of the liquid percolates through the soil, undergoing treatment. the application can be done by direct discharge (furrows, channels, perforated pipes) or by high capacity sprinklers. vegetation growth may or may not occur, 194 to wastewater characteristics, treatment and disposal does not interfere with the efficiency of the process and is not part of the treatment objective (coraucci filho et al, 1999). figure 4.16 presents a flowsheet of a rapid infiltration system.
What are latitude variations arranged for?
the simulated latitude and pressure variations of the solar response for all the models are shown in figures 9 and 10, arranged according to simulation attributes as for the ozone plots, figures 1 and 2
why  the signal in these models without explicit solar forcing was generally negligible?
the exceptions to this may have been due to the short length of the simulations, or possibly some aliasing with the ozone hole development as was suggested in the case of lmdzrepro for ozone
where the 95% confidence intervals for the observations are indicated?
the 95% confidence intervals for the observations is indicated at every other grid point. (top) mean results for those models which completed ensembles
the simulated latitude and pressure variations of the solar response for all the models are shown in figures 9 and 10, arranged according to simulation attributes as for the ozone plots, figures 1 and 2. as in the case of the ozone simulations, the signal in those models without explicit solar forcing was generally negligible (figure 10). the exceptions to this may have been due to the short length of the simulations, or possibly some aliasing with the ozone hole development as was suggested in the case of lmdzrepro for ozone (compare figure 10 with figure 2). as in the case figure 8. total ozone solar response in per 100 units of f10.7 simulated by the models as a function of latitude in comparison with observations. the 95% confidence intervals for the observations is indicated at every other grid point. (top) mean results for those models which completed ensembles. (middle) model results for single simulation runs. (bottom) results for those models without explicit solar forcing. the broken black lines indicate solar responses of 0% and 1%.
What is this report about?
this report provides an overview of the published scientific literature
what facts was this report based on?
primarily peer-reviewed, but also grey) relating to the contribution of traditional/indigenous knowledge to our understanding of global climate change
what does this report cover?
while the report does not purport to be comprehensive, it nevertheless attempts to draw attention to essential baseline information, key sources of data and continuing areas of debate
this report provides an overview of the published scientific literature (primarily peer-reviewed, but also grey) relating to the contribution of traditional/indigenous knowledge to our understanding of global climate change: observations, impacts and opportunities for adaptation. it focuses in particular on post-ar4 literature and also includes inputs from the international expert meeting 'indigenous peoples, marginalized populations and climate change: vulnerability, adaptation and traditional knowledge', held from 19-21 july 2011 in mexico city, mexico. while the report does not purport to be comprehensive, it nevertheless attempts to draw attention to essential baseline information, key sources of data and continuing areas of debate. a selection of key points is presented below.
How influential is human land use?
the fact that human land-use has such an overriding influence on predictions of how andean species will respond to future climate change can be viewed as encouraging in that there is still time to change many of our land-use activities
State deforestation rates?
even if climate change proceeds at the projected rates we have the opportunity to decrease the loss of andean species, and possibly even create a situation in which population sizes of some species increase, by reducing rates of deforestation and encouraging the adaptation of land-use practices above tree line that allow or facilitate the upward migration of forest species above current tree line
Puna Ecosystem Description?
economic and social incentives for changing land-use practices in the andes are also central to conservation goals. one example of such an activity is 'carbon farming.' under the clean development mechanism (cdm) statute of the kyoto protocol, developing nations can receive funds for carbon sequestered through afforestation (smith, 2002). while not currently a cdm, reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation projects are currently being developed which produce carbon offsets sold on the voluntary carbon market. under both types of activities tropical andean countries, as well as local communities, can profit by simply allowing forests to move upslope, and even more so by encouraging the upslope migration of andean plants through active forestry projects involving native montane cloud forest species
the fact that human land-use has such an overriding influence on predictions of how andean species will respond to future climate change can be viewed as encouraging in that there is still time to change many of our land-use activities. even if climate change proceeds at the projected rates we have the opportunity to decrease the loss of andean species, and possibly even create a situation in which population sizes of some species increase, by reducing rates of deforestation and encouraging the adaptation of land-use practices above tree line that allow or facilitate the upward migration of forest species above current tree line. the single most important land-use change to allow tree species to migrate is the elimination or amelioration of anthropogenic fire from high andean ecosystems. fire is pervasive in puna ecosystems and mainly are started to increase the quality of fodder for grazing, or simply escape during routine clearing of fields for agriculture. economic and social incentives for changing land-use practices in the andes are also central to conservation goals. one example of such an activity is 'carbon farming.' under the clean development mechanism (cdm) statute of the kyoto protocol, developing nations can receive funds for carbon sequestered through afforestation (smith, 2002). while not currently a cdm, reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation projects are currently being developed which produce carbon offsets sold on the voluntary carbon market. under both types of activities tropical andean countries, as well as local communities, can profit by simply allowing forests to move upslope, and even more so by encouraging the upslope migration of andean plants through active forestry projects involving native montane cloud forest species.
what is the temperature required to balance the force?
greater at high latitudes
when does the surface albedo give a positive temperature change?
in spring and summer
When does the shortwave cloud tend to cool?
the shortwave cloud (winton) feedback tends to cool the high latitudes and warm the low latitudes
not surprisingly, the patterns of equilibrium partial temperature changes for the different feedbacks are similar to the patterns of feedbacks themselves, but high-latitude temperatures are enhanced because the magnitude of the planck feedback is less at high latitudes [note we are dividing by the planck feedback to obtain the temperature change, eq. (12)] and the temperature change required to balance the forcing is therefore greater at high latitudes (joshi et al. 2003). also the temperature response due to each feedback is affected by the strength of other feedbacks. the surface albedo feedback gives a positive temperature change that is greatest in high latitudes in spring and summer (fig. 6a). the spread of surface albedo feedback equilibrium partial temperature changes between the different models is also greatest for these seasons (up to 12 k for the sh sea ice zone and 5 k for the nh polar region) (not shown). the shortwave cloud (winton) feedback tends to cool the high latitudes and warm the low latitudes with the
How are distance matrices constructed?
at each grain, we measured the strength of the correlations between bsim matrices and climatic, land-cover and geographic distance matrices by spearman's correlation coefficient and we plotted all of the relationships. because the distance matrices are built up of non-independent data points, we tested the statistical significance of these individual correlations by a mantel test (legendre legendre, 1998
Why do we use the term effect to indicate a statistical relationship instead of proven mechanistic causation?
note that we use the term effect to indicate a statistical relationship rather than a proven mechanistic causation (hawkins, 2012). the plotted individual relationships indicated that linear terms are an acceptable approximation. we used bootstrapping (numbers of permutations are provided in appendix s2) to calculate standard errors of the proportions of independent effects of each explanatory variable. we also tested the statistical significance of the multiple regression models
Why do we use an F test with reduced degrees of freedom?
potentially, to this end one could use a permutation test based on the f statistic of each of the predictors of a multiple regression model, comparable to a pairwise mantel test with multiple predictors (legendre legendre, 1998; winter et al. 2010). however, this is a computationally demanding test, which was not possible to perform for such a number of large matrices. hence, we used an f -test with reduced degrees of freedom: an alternative and conservative approach in which the degrees of freedom are reduced from the overall number of pairwise comparisons to the number of grid cells
at each grain, we measured the strength of the correlations between bsim matrices and climatic, land-cover and geographic distance matrices by spearman's correlation coefficient and we plotted all of the relationships. because the distance matrices are built up of non-independent data points, we tested the statistical significance of these individual correlations by a mantel test (legendre legendre, 1998). to calculate the mantel tests on our large matrices we used the fast zt software (bonnet van de peer, 2002). to assess the independent effects of climate, land cover and distance on bsim, we performed hierarchical variation partitioning (package hier.part in r; chevan sutherland, 1991) based on ordinary least-squares multiple regression. note that we use the term effect to indicate a statistical relationship rather than a proven mechanistic causation (hawkins, 2012). the plotted individual relationships indicated that linear terms are an acceptable approximation. we used bootstrapping (numbers of permutations are provided in appendix s2) to calculate standard errors of the proportions of independent effects of each explanatory variable. we also tested the statistical significance of the multiple regression models. potentially, to this end one could use a permutation test based on the f statistic of each of the predictors of a multiple regression model, comparable to a pairwise mantel test with multiple predictors (legendre legendre, 1998; winter et al. 2010). however, this is a computationally demanding test, which was not possible to perform for such a number of large matrices. hence, we used an f -test with reduced degrees of freedom: an alternative and conservative approach in which the degrees of freedom are reduced from the overall number of pairwise comparisons to the number of grid cells.
Tell us about wildlife management?
this strategy includes efforts to reform or enhance public policies regarding wildlife management and biodiversity conservation. tools include legislation, regulations, policies, private-sector standards and codes, and compliance and enforcement actions (iucn and conservation measures partnership 2006b
Tell us about the current laws related to wildlife and natural resource management?
16. review and modify existing laws, regulations, and policies regarding wildlife and natural resource management laws and policies related to wildlife management, natural resource management, and biodiversity conservation should be reviewed to ensure that their provisions are consistent with the needs of managers dealing with the effects of climate change (intersecretarial commission on climate change 2007) many of these laws and regulations are decades old, and most were developed before climate change became a significant concern
Describe the laws and regulations for biodiversity conservation?
new legislative tools or regulations may be necessary to address specific climate-change impacts. existing laws and regulations were designed for the conservation of "static" biodiversity (lovejoy 2005; lemieux scott 2005; scott lemieux 2005). many of these regulatory tools and approaches will need to be revisited in the light of the significant changes that are anticipated under even moderate climate-change regimes. actually addressing the deficiencies identified through these reviews may be difficult without significant political will. there will likely be significant concern expressed from all sides about sweeping revisions to existing laws and regulations
this strategy includes efforts to reform or enhance public policies regarding wildlife management and biodiversity conservation. tools include legislation, regulations, policies, private-sector standards and codes, and compliance and enforcement actions (iucn and conservation measures partnership 2006b). 16. review and modify existing laws, regulations, and policies regarding wildlife and natural resource management laws and policies related to wildlife management, natural resource management, and biodiversity conservation should be reviewed to ensure that their provisions are consistent with the needs of managers dealing with the effects of climate change (intersecretarial commission on climate change 2007) many of these laws and regulations are decades old, and most were developed before climate change became a significant concern. new legislative tools or regulations may be necessary to address specific climate-change impacts. existing laws and regulations were designed for the conservation of "static" biodiversity (lovejoy 2005; lemieux scott 2005; scott lemieux 2005). many of these regulatory tools and approaches will need to be revisited in the light of the significant changes that are anticipated under even moderate climate-change regimes. actually addressing the deficiencies identified through these reviews may be difficult without significant political will. there will likely be significant concern expressed from all sides about sweeping revisions to existing laws and regulations.
What happens if an agent attacks another agent first? then it gains a first-strike advantage and captures all of the opponent's output and assets with probability Pt 0 5.
if one of the agents attacks the other first, then it gains a first-strike advantage and captures all of the opponent's output and assets with probability pt 0 5
What happens if both agents decide to attack at the same time? they each win with probability 0.5
if both agents choose to attack simultaneously, they each win with probability 0.5
what happens when an agent loses the conflict?  it will be removed from the game.
if an agent loses the conflict, then she is removed from the game
we employ the theoretical model developed in chassang and padro-i-miquel 2009 to illustrate potential channels. in this model, two agents decide whether to engage in costly conflict and redistribution when bargaining fails. we opt not to present a full solution to the model here but instead focus on using the framework to provide an illustration of key ideas (we refer readers to the original paper for solution details). we follow gonzalez et al. 2014 by enriching the basic model with additional mechanisms that have been proposed but were not in the original analysis. consider two agents that cannot commit to not attacking one another in an infinite number of periods, indexed by t each agent has assets with productivity tht that produces thtl output when combined with l units of labor chassang and padro-i-miquel 2009 set l 1). we enrich the model to account for a population nt (not all of which must be laborers) that consume this output for a per capita per period consumption ofthtl ntunder non-conflict conditions. if one of the agents attacks the other first, then it gains a first-strike advantage and captures all of the opponent's output and assets with probability pt 0 5. such an attack costs both the aggressor and defender a fraction c 0 of output. if both agents choose to attack simultaneously, they each win with probability 0.5. following gonzalez et al. 2014 ), an attacker experiences a nonrival psychological consumption value of violence gt; if the attacker dislikes being violent, then gt 0 and if the attacker derives positive utility from violence gt 0. following the original formulation, if an agent loses the conflict, then she is removed from the game. if there is no attack in the current period, then each agent expects a peaceful continuation value vp, which is the discounted per capita utility of expected future consumption from the agent's initial assets and which captures expectations about future values of all parameters. similarly, if an attacker wins, then they have a continuation value of victory vvwhich is the per capita expected utility from consumption of both their initial assets and the assets that they capture from their opponent. d is the per period discount rate. chassang and padro-i-miquel 2009 show that the condition for no-conflict is (modified for 20 the new terms nt and gt): thtl nt dvp
What constitutes the first stage of the reactor?
expanded bed zone located immediately above the base of the reactor
Why is highconcentration granular sludge kept expanded?
owing to the high upflow velocities caused by the influent, by the recirculation flow and by the biogas produced
What results in the effective contact between the influent waste and the biomass?
results in a high sludge activity, making possible the application of high organic loads, and in high conversion rates
expanded bed zone located immediately above the base of the reactor and constitutes the first stage of the reactor. this area contains the highconcentration granular sludge maintained expanded owing to the high upflow velocities caused by the influent, by the recirculation flow and by the biogas produced. the effective contact between the influent waste and the biomass results in a high sludge activity, making possible the application of high organic loads, and in high conversion rates. the high intensity of the biomass mixing in the zone favours the application of this reactor type for the treatment of highly concentrated wastewaters.
how much is farming contribute in economy ?
in monetary terms, they contribute an estimated us$ 117 billion per year (7); around 35% of agricultural crops depend directly on pollinators (18) and 84% of cultivated plant species are involved with the activity of these insects
what is the most economically valuable pollinator of agricultural crops worldwide?
the european honey bee, apis mellifera is the most economically valuable pollinator of agricultural crops worldwide
why are Honey bees crucial for maintaining biodiversity?
honey bees are also crucial for maintaining biodiversity because they pollinate numerous plant species that require an obligatory pollinator for fertilisation
the long-term survival of farming worldwide relies in part on insect pollinators. in monetary terms, they contribute an estimated us$ 117 billion per year (7); around 35% of agricultural crops depend directly on pollinators (18) and 84% of cultivated plant species are involved with the activity of these insects (41). the european honey bee, apis mellifera is the most economically valuable pollinator of agricultural crops worldwide (17). honey bees are also crucial for maintaining biodiversity because they pollinate numerous plant species that require an obligatory pollinator for fertilisation (1, 24). in a context of climate change, plant phenology will be modified, especially the flowering period. a new bioclimatic and economic balance will shape the types and distribution of agricultural crops, as well as those of spontaneous vegetation (38). climate change could destabilise relationships between flowers and pollinators, and pollinators will need to be protected to ensure that they continue their pollination function, which is so important for the economy and for the ecological balance.
What UN carbon credit scheme does many biofuel projects seek funding from?
carbon credit schemes such as the un clean development mechanism facility through which many biofuel projects are seeking funding
Which Tibetan human rights issue was reconfigured as a climate justice issue by the Tibetan delegation from the "Third Pole" network?
the forcible relocation of tibetan nomads by the chinese authorities from the grasslands of the tibetan plateau into fenced model villages. this struggle over a primarily human rights issue was reconfigured as a climate justice issue
How did activist speakers use climate debt during the Climate Reparations demonstration outside the Bella Centre on 14 December?
during the climate reparations demonstration outside the bella centre on 14 december, speakers from activist groups based in the philippines, senegal, india and brazil and beyond, for example, used climate debt as a way of articulating climate change in relation to the unequal histories of colonialism and continuing global inequalities
people's coalition on food sovereignty. in addition to representing struggles against environmental, economic, and cultural "erasure" (see routledge 2003b), these struggles also challenge the marketisation of solutions to climate change represented by carbon credit schemes such as the un clean development mechanism facility through which many biofuel projects are seeking funding. antagonisms also exist between and within different climate justice networks in terms of approaches to climate change concerning carbon markets. in particular, the rejection of all forms of carbon trading by cjn! has placed it in conflict with the climate action network (can)10which has engaged with the carbon market process. indeed the formation of cjn! constituted a radical response to the postpolitical climate change agenda of more mainstream networks such as can. finally, the antagonism underpinning climate justice mobilisations is not simply towards certain aspects of injustice, it is also an antagonism over how life is produced and reproduced and whether it is produced in common or not. la via campesina (lvc --the international peasant and small farmers alliance which is a member of climate justice now!--have generated forms of alternative political practices through their organising and mobilisation as well as opposing unequal social and environmental relations they also generate (desmarais 2007). they have combined a commitment to localised forms of agriculture, and food sovereignty as an alternative to carbon-intensive agri-business with a focus on translocal circuits of opposition to neoliberalisation (via campesina 2009). during the copenhagen mobilisations the farmer's action on 13 december led by lvc was both a protest against industrial agriculture and an articulation of lvc's campaign of food sovereignty; and the "resistance is ripe!" agricultural day of action on the 15 december, focused on the enclosure of peasant and indigenous commons around the world. this emphasises how articulations of climate justice were produced on antagonistic terms through key mobilisations in copenhagen. the various spaces outlined above placed antagonism at the heart of much analysis of climate justice. klimaforum was perhaps the most noteworthy here, which provided a space for the articulation of grievances, and antagonisms concerning a range of climate justice campaigns. a diversity of narratives, especially from struggles in the global south, concerning the effects of climate change on communities were voiced. for example, a tibetan delegation from the "third pole" network, for example, gave a presentation in the forum that discussed the forcible relocation of tibetan nomads by the chinese authorities from the grasslands of the tibetan plateau into fenced model villages. this struggle over a primarily human rights issue was reconfigured as a climate justice issue since the grasslands upon which the nomads lived were carbon sinks that were themselves threatened by the construction of the model villages. articulations of climate justice explicitly challenged the links between climate change and uneven global geometries of power. during the climate reparations demonstration outside the bella centre on 14 december, speakers from activist groups based in the philippines, senegal, india and brazil and beyond, for example, used climate debt as a way of articulating climate change in relation to the unequal histories of colonialism and continuing global inequalities. demonstrators demanded "reparations from highly industrialised countries for their climate debt"
What is the observation of hazard-specific adaptation measures?
the first observation is that the proposed hazard-specific adaptation measures are surprisingly similar and independent of context (table 7). examples of such measures include the use of vegetation to reduce temperature; increasing the height of electricity installations in flood areas; marking flood levels on houses; and rainwater harvesting and storage to address water scarcity or droughts. second, most of the implemented or proposed measures are physical interventions; that is: so-called "grey" or "hard" measures, which aim at reducing hazard exposure or reducing the vulnerability of buildings and infrastructure to make them more capable of withstanding hazard impacts (table 7
Give some examples of physical measure?
examples of physical measures include the use of the building facades as windbreaks; vertical kerbs as a flood retention device; road surfaces that resist temperature variations; underground cabling; or construction material that increases the albedo effect (i.e. the reflectivity) of building facades and roofs
What  is  a lack of financial resources?
a lack of financial resources means that city authorities in middleand low-income nations sometimes combine these measures with low-tech practices, such as the distribution of plastic sheets (to help channel rain and waste water and to protect slopes from landslides) or the organization of cleaning days (to reduce the risk of clogged water channels
the first observation is that the proposed hazard-specific adaptation measures are surprisingly similar and independent of context (table 7). examples of such measures include the use of vegetation to reduce temperature; increasing the height of electricity installations in flood areas; marking flood levels on houses; and rainwater harvesting and storage to address water scarcity or droughts. second, most of the implemented or proposed measures are physical interventions; that is: so-called "grey" or "hard" measures, which aim at reducing hazard exposure or reducing the vulnerability of buildings and infrastructure to make them more capable of withstanding hazard impacts (table 7). it is only in recent years that city authorities have increasingly started to search for "soft" structures and "green" measures to complement grey measures (a trend primarily observed in more developed communities). city authorities take both a direct and indirect approach to "grey infrastructure": directly, through the implementation of physical measures in the construction of new housing or public infrastructure; indirectly, through the revision of related legislation (e.g. building codes or tax incentives) or guidelines for the construction of disasterand climate-resistant housing and infrastructure. examples of physical measures include the use of the building facades as windbreaks; vertical kerbs as a flood retention device; road surfaces that resist temperature variations; underground cabling; or construction material that increases the albedo effect (i.e. the reflectivity) of building facades and roofs. unfortunately, the analysis also shows that most adaptation measures address physical and non-physical factors separately. in other words, although the social, cultural, economic, political and institutional characteristics of cities are closely interlinked with the physical features of the urban fabric (and turn them into hotspots of risk), they receive little attention. consequently, urban planning for adaptation is not used to its full potential, which may lead to reduced resilience. exceptions include measures that focus on the link between the urban fabric and its ecosystem and these were, in fact, the measures most frequently seen in the evaluation (see also the third aspect outlined below). third, most urban adaptation measures aim to improve water management of cities to reduce the risk of floods, landslides, extreme temperatures, urban drought and the urban heat island effect. typically, they directly address the link between the urban fabric and environmental factors (table 7). grey measures to improve water management include the construction, improvement or maintenance of dikes, sewerage and drainage systems, open water channels and retention ponds. more developed communities give high importance to green and blue infrastructure, which includes the renaturalization of ecosystems, and implies working with natural processes instead of against them. examples are: planning residential and commercial areas to include open space; avoiding impervious surfaces to aid water absorption; the preservation of wetlands to defend against flooding; the creation of natural ecosystem buffers for vulnerable water bodies and low-lying areas; the use of vegetation on roofs and vertical surfaces (e.g. green walls) to reduce water run-off and absorb heat; and in general, greater priority being given to the restoration and maintenance of green areas and open space. one example is the city of berlin, which introduced the biotope area factor (baf) that expresses the ratio of the area covered by vegetation to the total land area of any urban development (kazmierczak and carter, 2010; davoudi et al., 2010; greater london authority, 2010). what makes the use of blue, open and green spaces for risk reduction and adaptation so attractive is that they also improve citizens' quality of life and provide recreational areas and places that can foster social interaction. in contrast, less developed communities give lower priority to green and blue infrastructure. instead they give more consideration to grey measures, such as the creation and improvement of technical infrastructure for rain, waste water, and waste management. a lack of financial resources means that city authorities in middleand low-income nations sometimes combine these measures with low-tech practices, such as the distribution of plastic sheets (to help channel rain and waste water and to protect slopes from landslides) or the organization of cleaning days (to reduce the risk of clogged water channels). fourth, most of the assessed cities place great emphasis on hazard-avoidance measures - areas that are already prone to disasters (and which may be even more endangered in the future) are forbidden to be used for further development (table 7). typically, high-income nations pursue this goal through the enforcement of land use plans and policies, or the relocation of critical infrastructure (such as 17
What  theory shows how indirect selection can only be effective?
quantitative-genetic selection theory
What is an example of the Quantitative-genetic selection theory?
election for adaptation to highly variable onset of rains (sowing dates) could be done directly by conducting multi-location, multi-year trials to sample a range of sowing dates for evaluating yield performance. in contrast, evaluation of photoperiod sensitivity could be conducted to indirectly select lines expected to have more stable performance over varied sowing dates (curtis 1968
What type of selection is drought?
is always a type of indirect selection
selection methods and traits for adaptation to climate variability indirect versus direct selection selection methods targeting adaptation to climate variability can be divided into direct selection for performance in the target stress environments and indirect selection methods for e.g., specific morphological, phenological or physiological characteristics under stress or under non-stress conditions. quantitative-genetic selection theory has shown that indirect selection can only be effective if the indirect (physiological/ morphological/ phenological) trait is easy, cheap and fast to measure (allowing for a higher selection intensity) and if there is a strong positive genetic correlation between the indirect selection trait and yield performance under stress (falconer 1989). for example, selection for adaptation to highly variable onset of rains (sowing dates) could be done directly by conducting multi-location, multi-year trials to sample a range of sowing dates for evaluating yield performance. in contrast, evaluation of photoperiod sensitivity could be conducted to indirectly select lines expected to have more stable performance over varied sowing dates (curtis 1968). in fact, the strong relation between later maturity and photoperiod sensitivity in sorghum enables observation of flowering in a single early sowing date to indirectly measure photoperiod sensitivity (clerget et al. 2007). however, environmental stresses such as drought may not actually be a single however, environmental stresses such as drought may not actually be a single phenomenon but rather a complex. for example, drought occurrence during seedling establishment, panicle formation, flowering or grain filling can represent totally different physiological challenges and require distinct genetic resistances. therefore selection for 13 13 resistance to a complex stress such as drought, for example, is always a type of indirect selection. thus the more precisely the stress can be defined, the higher should be the correlation with the target and the larger the expected gains from selection.
How is 2-methyl-bacteriohopanepolyol mainly produced among modern organisms?
among modern organisms, 2-methyl-bacteriohopanepolyol is produced predominantly by cyanobacteria and in trace quantities by methylotrophs like methylobacterium organophilum (3
What did Fischer et. al. recently demonstrate?
fischer et al. (79) recently demonstrated, however, that geobacter sulfurreducens can synthesize diverse hopanols, although not 2-methyl-hopanols, when grown under strictly anaerobic conditions
Does this mean that fossil hopanes imply the presence of O2-producing organisms?
fossil hopanes do not necessarily imply the presence of o2-producing organisms, and nothing about 2-methyl-hopanols suggests that they are any different in this respect. archean 2-methyl-hopanes also might have been produced by ancestral cyanobacteria that predated oxygenic photosynthesis
among modern organisms, 2-methyl-bacteriohopanepolyol is produced predominantly by cyanobacteria and in trace quantities by methylotrophs like methylobacterium organophilum (3). hopanes derived from 2methylbacteriohopanepolyol can be preserved in sedimentary rocks, where they have been used as tracers for cyanobacteria (3). hopanol synthesis has traditionally been assumed, based on the understood modern distribution of hopanols, to occur only in aerobic organisms. fischer et al. (79) recently demonstrated, however, that geobacter sulfurreducens can synthesize diverse hopanols, although not 2-methyl-hopanols, when grown under strictly anaerobic conditions. thus, fossil hopanes do not necessarily imply the presence of o2-producing organisms, and nothing about 2-methyl-hopanols suggests that they are any different in this respect. archean 2-methyl-hopanes also might have been produced by ancestral cyanobacteria that predated oxygenic photosynthesis.
What is the research priority of peatland plant community?
making the quantification of the direction and magnitude of this change a research priority
What Community analyses suggested?
community analyses suggested that the balance between dominant plant species was tipped from sphagnum to a graminoid-dominated system by the combination of climate change factors
Describe the indicators of regime shift occurring in the experiment?
we identify three indicators of a regime shift occurring in our experimental poor fen system under climate change: nonlinear decline of sphagnum at temperatures 8 deg c above ambient conditions, concomitant increases in carex spp. at temperatures 4 deg c above ambient conditions suggesting a weakening of sphagnum feedbacks on peat accumulation, and increased variance of the plant community composition and pore water ph through time
the composition of a peatland plant community has considerable effect on a range of ecosystem functions. peatland plant community structure is predicted to change under future climate change, making the quantification of the direction and magnitude of this change a research priority. we subjected intact, replicated vegetated poor fen peat monoliths to elevated temperatures, increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (co2), and two water table levels in a factorial design to determine the individual and synergistic effects of climate change factors on the poor fen plant community composition. we identify three indicators of a regime shift occurring in our experimental poor fen system under climate change: nonlinear decline of sphagnum at temperatures 8 deg c above ambient conditions, concomitant increases in carex spp. at temperatures 4 deg c above ambient conditions suggesting a weakening of sphagnum feedbacks on peat accumulation, and increased variance of the plant community composition and pore water ph through time. a temperature increase of 4 deg c appeared to be a threshold for increased vascular plant abundance; however the magnitude of change was species dependent. elevated temperature combined with elevated co2 had a synergistic effect on large graminoid species abundance, with a 15 times increase as compared to control conditions. community analyses suggested that the balance between dominant plant species was tipped from sphagnum to a graminoid-dominated system by the combination of climate change factors. our findings indicate that changes in peatland plant community composition are likely under future climate change conditions, with a demonstrated shift toward a dominance of graminoid species in poor fens.
What range in behavioral impact has been seen?
their behavioral impact has ranged from no behavior change at all to a relatively great deal of public and household change
What have the more successful campaigns typically used?
the more successful campaigns typically used what are now commonly accepted as good campaign design practices
What have also been shown to be promising tools for population behaviour management?
marketing interventions--in which improvements are made to products or services, their prices and availability, and how they are promoted (to enhance their perceived value to potential customers)--have also shown promise as tools for population behavior management with a variety of climate change-relevant behaviors
a number of communication campaigns promoting household disaster preparedness have been evaluated. their behavioral impact has ranged from no behavior change at all to a relatively great deal of public and household change.21the more successful campaigns typically used what are now commonly accepted as good campaign design practices: simple clear messages (e.g., specifying who is at risk, how severe and how certain the risk is, and what can be done to reduce the risk or diminish losses), repeated often (e.g., through a variety of interpersonal and media channels, electronically and in print), by a variety of trusted sources (e.g., scientists, community leaders, journalists). marketing interventions--in which improvements are made to products or services, their prices and availability, and how they are promoted (to enhance their perceived value to potential customers)--have also shown promise as tools for population behavior management with a variety of climate change-relevant behaviors:
Who agreed to a system of voluntary pledges as the basis for future climate action?
manmohan singh for india and other world leaders agreed to a system of voluntary pledges as the basis for future climate action
What is key to understanding the gradual transformation that has occurred in international climate politics?
developments at the subnational and regional level are key to understanding the gradual transformation that has occurred in international climate politics
Who contributed for carbon emission reductions?
around the world, local community groups have sprung up to advance voluntary carbon emission reductions; multinational corporations have increasingly invested in low-carbon business opportunities and adopted corporate social responsibility approaches with an explicit focus on climate change; institutional investors have begun to demand greater transparency on climate risks in business operations; and subnational authorities such as cities and municipal governing bodies have taken it upon themselves to create climate mitigation pledges and policies
robert falkner, hannes stephan and john vogler, 'international climate policy after copenhagen: towards a "building blocks" approach', global policy 1: 3, pp. 252-62. manmohan singh for india and other world leaders agreed to a system of voluntary pledges as the basis for future climate action. for the first time, major emitters from the developing world showed a willingness to contribute to the global mitigation effort without waiting for developed countries to fully implement their existing commitments. the copenhagen accord thus finally did away with the kyoto protocol's 'firewall' between annex i and non-annex i countries, paving the way for a more comprehensive mitigation deal. copenhagen also saw the beginning of other innovations in climate policy, from the green climate fund and a promise of up to us$100 billion a year by 2020 of climate finance to fund mitigation and adaptation in developing countries to a system for monitoring, reporting and verification of emissions and financial contributions. developments at the subnational and regional level are key to understanding the gradual transformation that has occurred in international climate politics. while concern over climate change was on the rise throughout the 2000s, it was towards the end of the decade that critical momentum was built for a global agreement. even in countries that had been laggards in the international negotiations, such as the united states, a groundswell of bottom-up initiatives had begun to change the political agenda.11 around the world, local community groups have sprung up to advance voluntary carbon emission reductions; multinational corporations have increasingly invested in low-carbon business opportunities and adopted corporate social responsibility approaches with an explicit focus on climate change; institutional investors have begun to demand greater transparency on climate risks in business operations; and subnational authorities such as cities and municipal governing bodies have taken it upon themselves to create climate mitigation pledges and policies.12
What are the impacts of climate change?
there is no claim of definitive empirical results, as these must wait on the development of more complete and accurate data on water rights, prices and deliveries and perhaps also more detailed climate and streamflow projections
What are weather and stream forecasts?
initially, climate scientists speculated that the increase in annual precipitation under most major climate scenarios would moderate the pressure on water resources. however, recent hydrological studies for moderate-temperate climates utilizing a smaller geographic scale discovered that despite the possible modest increase in annual precipitation, the runoff during the main growing season
Describe the static impacts?
april and august in the northern hemisphere, might actually decrease as a seasonality effect dominates the annual effect (lettenmaier and sheer 1991, hamlet and lettenmaier 1999, leung and wigmosta 1999). gleick and chalecki (1999) conclude that "some consistent impacts have been identified [...] among the most important is the shift
in this section we briefly speculate on potential impacts of climate change on the average value of farmland in california. there is no claim of definitive empirical results, as these must wait on the development of more complete and accurate data on water rights, prices and deliveries and perhaps also more detailed climate and streamflow projections. initially, climate scientists speculated that the increase in annual precipitation under most major climate scenarios would moderate the pressure on water resources. however, recent hydrological studies for moderate-temperate climates utilizing a smaller geographic scale discovered that despite the possible modest increase in annual precipitation, the runoff during the main growing season, i.e., between april and august in the northern hemisphere, might actually decrease as a seasonality effect dominates the annual effect (lettenmaier and sheer 1991, hamlet and lettenmaier 1999, leung and wigmosta 1999). gleick and chalecki (1999) conclude that "some consistent impacts have been identified [...] among the most important is the shift
How to improve the WVA process?
summarize understanding that was gained in the assessment to make subse quent assessments more efficient and useful this step captures lessons learned and recommends ways to improve the wva process
What is qualita tive evaluation?
this is primarily a qualita tive evaluation that benefits from broad participation by resource managers, scientists, and others in the assessment. although the evaluation can be obtained through a roundtable discussion, documenting and distributing the comments in written form is recommended as a legacy of the project
How to improve the improved the assessment?
determine which partners or participants, if included, would have improved the assessment. * identify which components of the process were necessary, which made the biggest contribution, and which were not efficient or necessary
summarize understanding that was gained in the assessment to make subse quent assessments more efficient and useful this step captures lessons learned and recommends ways to improve the wva process. this is primarily a qualita tive evaluation that benefits from broad participation by resource managers, scientists, and others in the assessment. although the evaluation can be obtained through a roundtable discussion, documenting and distributing the comments in written form is recommended as a legacy of the project. important considerations for step 6 include: * determine which information that was not available would have improved the assessment. * determine which partners or participants, if included, would have improved the assessment. * identify which components of the process were necessary, which made the biggest contribution, and which were not efficient or necessary. * make general and specific recommendations on how the next iteration of wva could be improved.
What has IRI developed to show satellite rainfall estimates?
using satellite rainfall estimates, updated every ten days, iri has developed a web-based interface, which enables the user to gain a contextual perspective of the current rainfall season by comparing it to previous seasons (13
using satellite rainfall estimates, updated every ten days, iri has developed a web-based interface, which enables the user to gain a contextual perspective of the current rainfall season by comparing it to previous seasons (13). the interface takes the form of an online 'clickable map': http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/.health/.regional /.africa/.malaria/.mews/. the map displays the most recent (at the time of writing) ten-day (dekadal) rainfall map (fig. 3). dekadal rainfall can be spatially averaged over a variety of user-selected geographic areas. by selecting a specific location of interest (by clicking on the map at the area being studied), four time-series graphs can be generated (fig. 4). these graphs provide an analysis of recent rainfall, in comparison with that of previous seasons, and a longtime series. the graphs allow the users to see automatically whether the area of interest is wetter (blue) or drier (red) than normal and decide whether risks are associated with vector developments.
How did duck and cover impact people during the cold war?
the so-called duck and cover programmes of the us atomic energy commission during the cold war era, which were designed to educate the public about an unimaginable catastrophe, have been blamed by social psychologists for contributing to the presence of panic-related disorders in children
Why did duck and cover cause these issues?
planning for extreme events has secondary psychological implications that are rarely addressed by health practitioners. indeed, education of the general public about uncertainty is no simple matter and must be carried out with responsibility and care, and with recommendations for alternative forms of adjustment that are real and feasible
How should we prepare for public health warnings?
increased spending on appropriate counselling or sympathetic health promotion, and the initiation of such services in poor countries, could be as important as planning to reduce new disease vectors
the challenge to respond to extreme climatic events not only for social destabilisation but also in terms of knowledge can be overwhelming. when governments attempt to educate populations about the dreadful consequences of extreme events, they might incite the panic that their eff orts seem to limit. the so-called duck and cover programmes of the us atomic energy commission during the cold war era, which were designed to educate the public about an unimaginable catastrophe, have been blamed by social psychologists for contributing to the presence of panic-related disorders in children.143 planning for extreme events has secondary psychological implications that are rarely addressed by health practitioners. indeed, education of the general public about uncertainty is no simple matter and must be carried out with responsibility and care, and with recommendations for alternative forms of adjustment that are real and feasible. social illnesses related to environmental uncertainty cannot be underestimated because extreme events are by defi nition destabilising. social uncertainty might cause increased levels of psychological stress because of instabilities that are both perceived and real.144 climate change will, therefore, have an eff ect on psychosocial health.97 increased spending on appropriate counselling or sympathetic health promotion, and the initiation of such services in poor countries, could be as important as planning to reduce new disease vectors.
What are policy-makers ignoring?
scientific questions about what the impacts of climate change actually are
How successful have mitigation efforts to combat GHG been?
mitigation efforts have failed to prevent the continued increase of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (ghg) emissions
What did the UNFCCC create in 2013.
in 2013, the united nations framework convention on climate change (unfccc) responded to these calls and established the warsaw international mechanism (wim
policy-makers are creating mechanisms to help developing countries cope with loss and damage from climate change, but the negotiations are largely neglecting scientific questions about what the impacts of climate change actually are. mitigation efforts have failed to prevent the continued increase of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (ghg) emissions. adaptation is now unlikely to be sufficient to prevent negative impacts from current and future climate change1. in this context, vulnerable nations argue that existing frameworks to promote mitigation and adaptation are inadequate, and have called for a third international mechanism to deal with residual climate change impacts, or "loss and damage"2. in 2013, the united nations framework convention on climate change (unfccc) responded to these calls and established the warsaw international mechanism (wim) to address loss and damage from the impacts of climate change in developing countries3. an interim executive committee of party representatives has been set up, and is currently drafting a two-year workplan comprising meetings, reports, and expert groups; and aiming to enhance knowledge and understanding of loss and damage, strengthen dialogue among stakeholders, and promote enhanced action and support. issues identified as priorities for the wim thus far include: how to deal with non-economic losses, such as loss of life, livelihood, and cultural heritage; and linkages between loss and damage and patterns of migration and displacement2. in all this, one fundamental issue still demands our attention: which losses and damages are relevant to the wim? what counts as loss and damage from climate change?
What is the significance of Hydrography in climate change?
hydrography given the importance of proximity to water for many of the species we studied, we characterized the availability of standing water (e.g., lakes, ponds, swamps) and moving water (e.g., streams, rivers, springs
How the variables standing water and moving water are generated?
ydrography given the importance of proximity to water for many of the species we studied, we characterized the availability of standing water (e.g., lakes, ponds, swamps) and moving water (e.g., streams, rivers, springs). variables were generated using the us national hydrography dataset (nhd; nhd.usgs.gov
What is rasterization?
the nhd was rasterized (converted from vector data to grid cells) at 25m resolution
hydrography given the importance of proximity to water for many of the species we studied, we characterized the availability of standing water (e.g., lakes, ponds, swamps) and moving water (e.g., streams, rivers, springs). variables were generated using the us national hydrography dataset (nhd; nhd.usgs.gov). the nhd was rasterized (converted from vector data to grid cells) at 25m resolution. the two variables we generated were: 1. the proportion of each 1km resolution cell that is within 200m of standing water (i.e., a lake, pond, reservoir, swamp or marsh); and 2. the proportion of each cell 1km resolution cell that is within 200m of moving water (i.e., a stream, river, area of complex channels, canal, spring or seep). two hundred meters was selected as appropriate to represent the maximum distance a species' is likely to travel regularly to access water, based on information regarding species ' home ranges and distance moved to find water.
Say EPO OECD World Patent Statistics Database?
over the past several years, the european patent office (epo), along with the oecd's directorate for science, technology and industry, have developed a worldwide patent database--the epo/oecd world patent statistical database (patstat). patstat is unique in that it covers more than 80 patent offices and contains over 70 million patent documents. patstat data have not been exploited much until now because they became available only recently
PATSTAT Data Study Description?
patstat is unique in that it covers more than 80 patent offices and contains over 70 million patent documents. patstat data have not been exploited much until now because they became available only recently. our study is the first to use patstat data to explain the diffusion of climate change mitigation technologies. we extracted all the patents filed from 1990 to 2003 in 12 climate-mitigation fields: six renewable energy technologies (wind, solar, geothermal, ocean energy, biomass, and hydropower), waste use and recovery, methane destruction, climate-friendly cement, energy conservation in buildings, motor vehicle fuel injection, and energy-efficient lighting
Tell us about methane destruction?
the precise description of the fields covered by the study can be found in table 1. this represents 186,660 patent applications filed in 76 countries.v on average, climate-related patents included in our data set represent 1% of the total annual number of patents filed worldwide. since our interest is on technology diffusion, we only consider inventions that are patented in several countries, leaving us with 110,170 patents
over the past several years, the european patent office (epo), along with the oecd's directorate for science, technology and industry, have developed a worldwide patent database--the epo/oecd world patent statistical database (patstat). patstat is unique in that it covers more than 80 patent offices and contains over 70 million patent documents. patstat data have not been exploited much until now because they became available only recently. our study is the first to use patstat data to explain the diffusion of climate change mitigation technologies. we extracted all the patents filed from 1990 to 2003 in 12 climate-mitigation fields: six renewable energy technologies (wind, solar, geothermal, ocean energy, biomass, and hydropower), waste use and recovery, methane destruction, climate-friendly cement, energy conservation in buildings, motor vehicle fuel injection, and energy-efficient lighting. the precise description of the fields covered by the study can be found in table 1. this represents 186,660 patent applications filed in 76 countries.v on average, climate-related patents included in our data set represent 1% of the total annual number of patents filed worldwide. since our interest is on technology diffusion, we only consider inventions that are patented in several countries, leaving us with 110,170 patents.
How many diensions is the foresight scenario?
the scenarios are only two-dimensional
What are the dimensions the UK Goernement Cabinet Office uses in formulating stategies and policies?
social values and governance systems
Why was the UK Foresight Programme designed?
it was designed to identify technical opportunities and social drivers in a changing world and has helped to shape research priorities in both the private and public sector
the uk foresight programme began in 1993, drawing on the expertise of thousands of people from the uk's leading businesses, universities, government and other institutions. 5 it was designed to identify technical opportunities and social drivers in a changing world and has helped to shape research priorities in both the private and public sector. thus, for example, it is now standard practice for research organizations seeking funding from the uk government to be requested to identify how their research will fit in with the foresight scenarios. in addition, it is known that the uk government cabinet office makes use of the foresight scenario methodology in formulating strategies and policies. the scenarios are only two-dimensional, that is they consider only two dimensions of change, namely social values and governance systems. these scenarios were very important in building up a range of possible social and economic descriptions of the future that might arise if certain decisions were taken today and these scenarios have been widely used as the basis for other more complex scenarios. a central aspect is the four social and economic scenarios described below. 5 the scenarios are not prescriptive; they simply describe how the world might look in the near future, exploring alternative directions in which social, economic and technological changes may evolve. these descriptions are for the uk and are based on various sources edited by the authors from an insurance perspective.
What is the equatorial Atlantic leaked too?
strong enso events
1984 warming in the eastern equatorial Atlantic resulted in what?
the zonal wind anomaly related to the severe 1982/83 enso
What season does the phenomena peak?
in the boreal winter
walker cell. there is some evidence that certain events in the equatorial atlantic are indeed linked to strong enso events. for example, delecluse et al. (1994) and carton and huang (1994) showed that the strong 1984 warming in the eastern equatorial atlantic resulted from the zonal wind anomaly related to the severe 1982/83 enso. one reason that the zonal mode appears to be less affected by the remote influences than the meridional mode may be related to the different seasons to which these two phenomena are phase locked. the fact that the equatorial mode appears primarily in the boreal summer makes it difficult for enso and the nao to have a direct influence on it, because both of these phenomena peak in the boreal winter. this, however, raises the question of whether the zonal mode is related to the variability in the southern hemisphere. only a few recent studies (venegas et al. 1997; wu and liu 2002; sterl and hazeleger 2003; barreiro et al. 2005) have begun to investigate this issue. some of the initial findings suggest that the southern summer atmospheric variability (and to a less extent the winter variability) can play a preconditioning role in the onset of the anomalies in the deep tropics during the following austral fall.
What is the basis for addressing most aspects of climate change? Ecosystem management
ecosystem management as practiced in land management agencies remains the foundation for addressing most aspects of climate change
What does ecosystem management recognize? Recognizes continuous changes in ecosystems
ecosystem management recognizes continuous change within ecosystems, the role of climate as an ecosystem drive
What is the current challenge? It is to incorporate into the ecosystem management structure new changes resulting from climate change
the present challenge is to incorporate into the ecosystem management framework novel changes resulting from human-caused climate change and their interactions with the natural background of environmental change
this guidebook presents a framework on which to build adaptation, processes that facilitate dialogue between scientists and managers, and examples from the efforts of scientists and managers working in national forests that are moving forward with adaptation. ecosystem management as practiced in land management agencies remains the foundation for addressing most aspects of climate change. ecosystem management recognizes continuous change within ecosystems, the role of climate as an ecosystem driver, interconnections of natural processes with structure and composition, and the integrated nature of watersheds, landscapes, and entire ecosystems. the present challenge is to incorporate into the ecosystem management framework novel changes resulting from human-caused climate change and their interactions with the natural background of environmental change. science-management partnerships are the foundation for the development of adaptation strategies and practices. much has been said about how different the culture of science is from that of management, hence the need to begin the dialogue carefully and thoughtfully to enhance mutual learning. reaching mutual understanding and agreement about resources, goals, and expectations can lead to thoughtful exchanges of information on climate change science and on management knowledge on national forests. the steps for developing adaptation options can be described as review rank resolve, and observe to review means to educate oneself, one's staffs, stakehold ers and communities of interest on climate science, effects on ecosystems, and desired futures for landscapes being managed. the educational process can involve short courses, a checklist to review projects as affected by climate change, or a more involved process of consultation with a scientific technical committee. rank requires identifying and assessing vulnerabilities of the national forest to climate change and developing shortand long-term priorities for management. tools such as watershed vulnerability assessment can identify priorities for management. over the short term, managers can address climate concerns by minimizing and reducing non-climatic stressors, taking actions to improve ecological health, and managing the effects of disturbances. resolve is the step whereby adaptation options are developed and conservation and management are implemented. here the four cat egories of managing for resistance resilience response and realignment encourage thinking about the range of possible options. management treatments may fall into one or more of these categories with the overriding objective of constructing management solutions that fit the situation at hand. the last step of observe refers to a treatment response being detected (monitoring) as climate changes, with modi fications being made if necessary and appropriate (adaptive management).
What are diversity patterns?
here, we employ an additive partitioning framework to disentangle the contribution of spatial turnover and nestedness to beta diversity patterns in the global freshwater fish fauna
what is the overall level of beta diversity?
quantifying the relative roles of historical and ecological factors in explaining present-day patterns of beta diversity hence requires considering the different processes generating these patterns and not solely the overall level of beta diversity
here, we employ an additive partitioning framework to disentangle the contribution of spatial turnover and nestedness to beta diversity patterns in the global freshwater fish fauna. we find that spatial turnover and nestedness differ geographically in their contribution to freshwater fish beta diversity, a pattern that results from contrasting influences of quaternary climate changes. differences in fish faunas characterized by nestedness are greater in drainage basins that experienced larger amplitudes of quaternary climate oscillations. conversely, higher levels of spatial turnover are found in historically unglaciated drainage basins with high topographic relief, these having experienced greater quaternary climate stability. such an historical climate signature is not clearly detected when considering the overall level of beta diversity. quantifying the relative roles of historical and ecological factors in explaining present-day patterns of beta diversity hence requires considering the different processes generating these patterns and not solely the overall level of beta diversity. keywords beta diversity, biogeography, freshwater ecosystems, geographical isolation, historical climate stability, niche limitation, quaternary climate changes, spatial turnover.
Who funded this project?
the authors wish to thank the world bank and global environment facility for funding and the center for environmental economics and policy in africa at the university of pretoria for their overall management of this project
Who managed this project?
the authors wish to thank the world bank and global environment facility for funding and the center for environmental economics and policy in africa at the university of pretoria for their overall management of this project
Which universities did the seminar participants attend?
we are especially thankful to ariel dinar at the world bank, rashid hassan at ceepa, and pradeep kurukulasuriya at undp. we would also like to thank professors robert evenson, donald andrews, daniel esty, and erin mansur at yale university, professor kenneth train at the university of california at berkeley, many seminar participants at yale university and purdue university, and two anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments
corresponding author: tel.: 203-432-9771. fax: 203-432-3809. e-mail address: niggol.seo@yale.edu (s. niggol seo). 1the authors wish to thank the world bank and global environment facility for funding and the center for environmental economics and policy in africa at the university of pretoria for their overall management of this project. we are especially thankful to ariel dinar at the world bank, rashid hassan at ceepa, and pradeep kurukulasuriya at undp. we would also like to thank professors robert evenson, donald andrews, daniel esty, and erin mansur at yale university, professor kenneth train at the university of california at berkeley, many seminar participants at yale university and purdue university, and two anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments.
Previous experience in what, benefited organizations responding to repeated storms?
organizations that coped well during the event cited the benefits of previous experience dealing with emergency situations and the ability to implement contingencies that reduced their reliance on transportation
Ontario lost more than what amount of money due to repeated winter storms in 1999?
estimated economic losses, based on information from several government agencies and businesses, were more than $85 million
How are runways kept clear of ice?
for air transport, "up to 50 million litres of chemicals are sprayed onto aircraft and runways around the world each year to prevent the build-up of ice on wings and to keep the runways ice-free
it is well recognized that individual storms can account for a large percentage of total seasonal costs.(43)a succession of storms, in which the impacts are cumulative, can also result in substantial costs. for example, a series of winter storms, associated heavy snowfalls and extremely cold temperatures affected southern ontario during the month of january, 1999.(43)in terms of the number of people affected, impaired mobility was the most significant impact. repeated snowfalls exceeded the capacity of existing systems to maintain reliable air, road, rail and subway transportation services. estimated economic losses, based on information from several government agencies and businesses, were more than $85 million. organizations that coped well during the event cited the benefits of previous experience dealing with emergency situations and the ability to implement contingencies that reduced their reliance on transportation. transportation authorities have generally responded to the event by redesigning their systems to withstand a higher threshold of winter hazard. rail companies also have winter operating plans and procedures for dealing with winter weather that cost millions of dollars each year. these include such measures as snow removal, sanding and salting, track and wheel inspections, temporary slow orders and personnel training. while milder or shorter winters are expected to benefit rail operations, this conclusion is based on limited research. for air transport, "up to 50 million litres of chemicals are sprayed onto aircraft and runways around the world each year to prevent the build-up of ice on wings and to keep the runways ice-free."(44)
What's the role of the top panel ?
the top panel shows a shift of the entire distribution towards a warmer climate (a change in the mean), a situation in which more hot (and record hot) weather would be expected, along with less cold (and record cold) weather
What's the role of the middle panel ?
the middle panel shows a change in the probability distribution of temperature that preserves the mean value but involves an increase in the variance of the distribution: on average, the temperature is the same, but in the future there would be more hot and cold (and record hot and cold) weather
climate change is inevitably resulting in changes in climate variability and in the frequency, intensity, spatial extent, duration, and timing of extreme weather and climate events (ipcc, 2012). changes in climate variability and extremes can be visualised in relation to changes in probability distributions, shown in figure 1 (ipcc, 2012). the top panel shows a shift of the entire distribution towards a warmer climate (a change in the mean), a situation in which more hot (and record hot) weather would be expected, along with less cold (and record cold) weather. the middle panel shows a change in the probability distribution of temperature that preserves the mean value but involves an increase in the variance of the distribution: on average, the temperature is the same, but in the future there would be more hot and cold (and record hot and cold) weather. the bottom panel shows the situation in which the temperature probability distribution preserves its mean, but the variability evolves through a change in asymmetry towards the hotter part of the distribution; here we would see near constant cold (and record cold) weather, but increases in hot (and record hot weather).
Define UNFCCC reluctance?
in the unfccc, there has been some reluctance in the past to support adaptation projects as part of the global financial response because the benefits of adaptation are seen to fall locally
What are the adaptations saw in developing countries?
developing countries see adaptation financing as largely the responsibility of the donor countries under the principle of ,,common but differentiated responsibilities" as agreed in the text of the convention
Define cceptable rationale for removing the global environmental benefit?
while there seems to be no acceptable rationale for removing the global environmental benefit requirement from the financial mechanism of the convention (gef), there are substantial opportunities for blending convention funds with other development assistance where such limitations do not apply
in the unfccc, there has been some reluctance in the past to support adaptation projects as part of the global financial response because the benefits of adaptation are seen to fall locally. however, developing countries see adaptation financing as largely the responsibility of the donor countries under the principle of ,,common but differentiated responsibilities" as agreed in the text of the convention. while there seems to be no acceptable rationale for removing the global environmental benefit requirement from the financial mechanism of the convention (gef), there are substantial opportunities for blending convention funds with other development assistance where such limitations do not apply. in addition other mechanisms such as climate insurance could be created or enhanced and this is currently under review.
What  two test are performed to assess the accuracy of the shortwave APRP method?
first, for a single model we analyze the surface albedo and shortwave cloud radiative responses in doubled co2 experiments. then, for two different model simulations of last glacial maximum conditions, we test how accurately shortwave aprp can estimate radiative forcing due to the surface albedo changes implied by the prescription of continental-scale ice sheets
what are the PRP estimates based on?
the prp estimates are based on the "two sided" analysis introduced by colman and mcavaney (1997) to reduce the influence of the so-called decorrelation perturbation
Who introduced the "two sided" analysis?
the "two sided" analysis introduced by colman and mcavaney (1997) to reduce the influence of the so-called decorrelation perturbation
here we assess the accuracy of the shortwave aprp method. two tests are performed. first, for a single model we analyze the surface albedo and shortwave cloud radiative responses in doubled co2 experiments. then, for two different model simulations of last glacial maximum conditions, we test how accurately shortwave aprp can estimate radiative forcing due to the surface albedo changes implied by the prescription of continental-scale ice sheets. in each case, to gauge the accuracy of the shortwave aprp estimate, we compare it with more exact prp calculations. the prp estimates are based on the "two sided" analysis introduced by colman and mcavaney (1997) to reduce the influence of the so-called decorrelation perturbation.
What does the scenario pathways developed in this paper illustrate?
the scenario pathways developed in this paper illustrate quantitatively the scale of mitigation implied in high-level policy statements on 2*c
What was the focus of Macintosh 3?
macintosh 3 focused on co2-only emissions in correlating twentyfirst century budgets with global mean temperatures (denoted by the co2 plus regime
What are the  budgetary regimes considered in this paper?
while macintosh 3 focused on co2-only emissions in correlating twentyfirst century budgets with global mean temperatures (denoted by the co2 plus regime), the budgets within anderson bows' analysis were for the basket of six kyoto gases. given there are merits and drawbacks for each of the budgetary regimes, both are considered in this paper
the scenario pathways developed in this paper illustrate quantitatively the scale of mitigation implied in high-level policy statements on 2*c. moreover, and with direct reference to annex 1 and non-annex 1 nations, the scenario pathways demonstrate the disjuncture between such high-level statements and the emission pathways proposed by many policy-advisers and academics. the scenario pathways are all premised on a cumulative emission budget approach, building particularly on the work of macintosh 3 and anderson bows 2 24 but also on a range of wider studies 7 25 26 ]. while macintosh 3 focused on co2-only emissions in correlating twentyfirst century budgets with global mean temperatures (denoted by the co2 plus regime), the budgets within anderson bows' analysis were for the basket of six kyoto gases. given there are merits and drawbacks for each of the budgetary regimes, both are considered in this paper.
What do we use statistical frameworks for?
we use this statistical framework to evaluate the statistical significance of the mean climate response and to compare the size of the mean climate response with internal variability (signal-to-noise ratio
What is the definition of internal variability?
internal variability is here defined as the sampling uncertainty in the 30-yr means that is induced by different initial conditions
What do we determine from the ANOVA framework?
we use the anova framework to determine the uncertainty in the mean climate response from the differences in the responses of the models, which is called the structural uncertainty in sansom et al. (2013), and from the internal variability
in this study, the mean climate response b is estimated from the unweighted multimodel-mean difference between the historical and future day simulations. if available, multiple runs from each model are first averaged for each scenario. sansom et al. (2013) showed that b is equivalent to the maximum likelihood (ml) estimate of the expected climate response from a two-way analysis of variance (anova) framework (see the appendix). we use this statistical framework to evaluate the statistical significance of the mean climate response and to compare the size of the mean climate response with internal variability (signal-to-noise ratio). internal variability is here defined as the sampling uncertainty in the 30-yr means that is induced by different initial conditions. consensus in multimodel projections is often evaluated by the sign agreement in the climate responses, or by comparing the size of the mean climate response with the spread of the model responses. these approaches tend to systematically reject consensus where the mean climate response is small relative to the internal variability (i.e., in regions of low signal-to-noise ratio). however, additional information can be gained from a statistical analysis in regions of small mean climate response if climate models agree that the response is small. to quantify this, we use the anova framework to determine the uncertainty in the mean climate response from the differences in the responses of the models, which is called the structural uncertainty in sansom et al. (2013), and from the internal variability. if the variance ratio f2of the structural uncertainty to the internal variability is small f2, 1), there is consensus between the model responses, regardless of the absolute size of the mean response. as the responses of the cyclone tracks generally have a low signal-to-noise ratio (see section 3), the choice of this metric seems to be appropriate for this study. the 90% confidence intervals on the mean climate response caused by internal variability are presented for key quantities. the confidence intervals here are estimates of the spread in the mean climate response one would obtain if cmip5 runs were repeated (i.e., perturbed the initial conditions). in other
What data is set ?
the sparc aerosol data set is constructed from sage pro fi le measurements of aerosols, beginning in 1983. unlike in ipcc modelling, stratospheric ccms require height-resolved aerosol forcing data due to the importance of heterogeneous chemical processing
Are smaller events apparent?
also some smaller events are apparent. data before 1983 are constructed based on assumptions of background aerosol and, in the case of agung, assuming a similar distribution of aerosol as after later volcanic eruptions
With exception of SOCOL?
n these areas, sometimes a very low sad of sulfate aerosol is assumed. with the exception of (niwa)socol (using a combination of sage and giss data), all models use this data set for the ref-b1 simulations. for ref-b0 and ref-b2, background (year-2000) data are used cyclically throughout the simulations. aerosols cause a perturbation to the heating/cooling
the sparc aerosol data set is constructed from sage pro fi le measurements of aerosols, beginning in 1983. unlike in ipcc modelling, stratospheric ccms require height-resolved aerosol forcing data due to the importance of heterogeneous chemical processing. four big volcanic events are obvious, agung in 1963, el chichon in 1982, nevado del ruiz in 1985 and mt pinatubo in 1991 figure 2.5 ). also some smaller events are apparent. data before 1983 are constructed based on assumptions of background aerosol and, in the case of agung, assuming a similar distribution of aerosol as after later volcanic eruptions. a problem is apparent at high latitudes in the southern hemisphere, where the satellite sensor cannot distinguish between sulfate aerosols and pscs. in these areas, sometimes a very low sad of sulfate aerosol is assumed. with the exception of (niwa)socol (using a combination of sage and giss data), all models use this data set for the ref-b1 simulations. for ref-b0 and ref-b2, background (year-2000) data are used cyclically throughout the simulations. aerosols cause a perturbation to the heating/cooling
Uncertainty in the context of the climate problem falls within what domain?
uncertainty in the context of the climate problem falls within the domain of scientific research, and efforts aimed at reducing it have spanned the oceans (e.g., the development of large-scale ocean circulation models), atmosphere (e.g., models of atmospheric circulation), and land (e.g., measuring the carbon storage capacity of agricultural and forested land
Why is viewing the relationship between uncertainty, adaptation, and mitigation in this way problematic?
viewing the relationship between uncertainty, adaptation, and mitigation in this way is problematic because it discounts the importance of climate policies themselves as a means of reducing uncertainty about the overall climate system
Much like what can relatively large-scale manipulations of the climate through the implementation of "experimental" policies complement the fleet of more traditional research being conducted by climate scientists?
much like laboratory research in biology complements field studies in ecology, so too can relatively large-scale manipulations of the climate through the implementation of "experimental" policies complement the fleet of more traditional research being conducted by climate scientists
the way in which climate scientists and policy makers have traditionally viewed the relationship between these three issues--uncertainty, adaptation, and mitigation--is quite clear. uncertainty in the context of the climate problem falls within the domain of scientific research, and efforts aimed at reducing it have spanned the oceans (e.g., the development of large-scale ocean circulation models), atmosphere (e.g., models of atmospheric circulation), and land (e.g., measuring the carbon storage capacity of agricultural and forested land). adaptation and mitigation, on the other hand, have been within the purview of the climate policy community and are largely reactive in nature to an ever widening, often conflicting, and essentially rudderless (from a policy making perspective) array of scientific studies. viewing the relationship between uncertainty, adaptation, and mitigation in this way is problematic because it discounts the importance of climate policies themselves as a means of reducing uncertainty about the overall climate system. much like laboratory research in biology complements field studies in ecology, so too can relatively large-scale manipulations of the climate through the implementation of "experimental" policies complement the fleet of more traditional research being conducted by climate scientists.
What are dynamic capabilities?
dynamic capabilities that enable a firm to change and adapt operational activities
How do Zollo and Winter define a dynamic capability?
a learned and stable pattern of collective activity through which an organisation systematically generates and modifies its operating routines in pursuit of improved effectiveness
two types of capabilities are commonly referred to: operational capabilities are those that enable a firm to carry out its routine business activities; and dynamic capabilities that enable a firm to change and adapt operational activities (collis, 1994). dynamic capabilities involve the ability to integrate, build and reconfigure internal and external competencies and routines (teece et al., 1997). zollo and winter (2002: 340) define a dynamic capability as ' a learned and stable pattern of collective activity through which an organisation systematically generates and modifies its operating routines in pursuit of improved effectiveness.' all organisations are seen as possessing dynamic capabilities, although the appropriate investment of resources in these capabilities may vary depending on the perceived benefits arising from them. sometimes dynamic capabilities will be costly to maintain. in general, organisations operating in stable environments are assumed to focus on efficiency gains through improvements of operating routines, while in less stable environments greater investments are made in exploration and the discovery of new ways of doing things (march, 1991; benner and tushman, 2003). it is important to recognise that learning processes are deemed to apply to both operating routines and to dynamic capabilities. 2.3. signalling and interpretation
What can affect a tree's ability to defend itself from disease and insect attack?
anthropogenic emissions
What effect can climate change have on insects?
altering the abundance of insect enemies
What can increase the sensitivity of trees to insect damage?
extended drought conditions
climate change would also have indirect effects on forest disturbance by pests. for example, extended drought conditions may increase the sensitivity of trees to insect defoliation,(3)as would ecosystem instability caused by species migrations. projected increases in anthropogenic emissions (e.g., co2, o3) may further reduce tree defences against insects and diseases.(75, 26)climate change may also affect insect outbreaks by altering the abundance of insect enemies, mutualists and competitors. for example, warmer weather may have differing effects on the development rates of hosts and parasitoids,(34)as well as the ranges of predators and prey.(76)this could alter ecosystem dynamics by reducing the biological controls on certain pest populations.
What is the transmission of dengue fever is largely determined by?
our findings confirm that the geographical limits of dengue fever transmission are strongly determined by climate
What will contribute to the increase of dengue fever cases?
climate change will contribute to a substantial increase in the number of people and proportion of global population at risk of dengue fever
How is humidity defined by this study?
humidity, defined as vapour pressure or specific humidity, is high only where rainfall and temperatures are high, and these are conditions that are conducive to breeding and survival of vector populations, and rapid replication of the virus. 4
our findings confirm that the geographical limits of dengue fever transmission are strongly determined by climate. on the assumption that other factors affecting dengue fever transmission remain the same, we forecast that climate change will contribute to a substantial increase in the number of people and proportion of global population at risk of dengue fever. the finding that the baseline distribution of dengue is well predicted on the basis of reported vapour pressure is biologically credible. humidity, defined as vapour pressure or specific humidity, is high only where rainfall and temperatures are high, and these are conditions that are conducive to breeding and survival of vector populations, and rapid replication of the virus. 4
Who generated weather data from the United States Department of Agriculture?
shawn bucholtz
Who initiated the conversation that ultimately led to this paper?
david bradford
What is one seminar location that participants gave comments from?
maryland, yale, the nber environmental economics summer institute, and the "conference on spatial and social interactions in economics" at the university of california-santa barbara
we thank david bradford for initiating a conversation that ultimately led to this paper. hoyt bleakley, tim conley, enrico moretti, marc nerlove, and wolfram schlenker provided insightful comments. we are also grateful for comments from seminar participants at maryland, yale, the nber environmental economics summer institute, and the "conference on spatial and social interactions in economics" at the university of california-santa barbara. anand dash, barrett kirwan, nick nagle, and william young, provided outstanding research assistance. finally, we are indebted to shawn bucholtz at the united states department of agriculture for generously generating the weather data. greenstone acknowledges generous funding from the american bar foundation. the views expressed herein are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the national bureau of economic research. (c)2004 by olivier deschenes and michael greenstone. all rights reserved. short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including (c) notice, is given to the source.
What is the response of marine fish and invertebrates  to warming climates, as per a study?
while previous research has documented marine fish and invertebrates shifting poleward in response to warming climates
Whether the shifting of marine fish poleward has a corresponding response from fisheries? If so how?
by examining fisheries in the northeastern united states over the last four decades of warming temperatures, we show that northward shifts in species distributions were matched by corresponding northward shifts in fisheries. the proportion of warm-water species caught in most states also increased through time
What will be the net result of the lags in the shifting of fisheries , as per the researcher?
most importantly, however, fisheries shifted only 10 - 30 as much as their target species, and evidence suggested that economic and regulatory constraints played important roles in creating these lags. these lags may lead to overfishing and population declines if not accounted for in fisheries management and climate adaptation. in coupled natural-human systems such as fisheries, human actions play important roles in determining the sustainability of the system and, therefore, future conservation and climate mitigation planning will need to consider not only biophysical changes, but also human responses to these changes and the feedbacks that these responses have on ecosystems
while previous research has documented marine fish and invertebrates shifting poleward in response to warming climates, less is known about the response of fisheries to these changes. by examining fisheries in the northeastern united states over the last four decades of warming temperatures, we show that northward shifts in species distributions were matched by corresponding northward shifts in fisheries. the proportion of warm-water species caught in most states also increased through time. most importantly, however, fisheries shifted only 10 - 30 as much as their target species, and evidence suggested that economic and regulatory constraints played important roles in creating these lags. these lags may lead to overfishing and population declines if not accounted for in fisheries management and climate adaptation. in coupled natural-human systems such as fisheries, human actions play important roles in determining the sustainability of the system and, therefore, future conservation and climate mitigation planning will need to consider not only biophysical changes, but also human responses to these changes and the feedbacks that these responses have on ecosystems. 1 some of the most important ecosystem services derived from the ocean are the seafood, employment, and support to local economies provided by marine fisheries. substantial attention has focused on the impact that overfishing, habitat destruction, and other stressors have had on these services (pauly et al. 2002 worm et al. 2006 ), and on the value that can be gained by rebuilding overfished populations (worm et al. 2009 ). fisheries, however, also
What boundary can be shifted to make the groundwater no longer drinkable?
the salinefreshwater boundary
What can affect groundwater quality?
climate change
What can happen to groundwater aquifers in coastal regions?
saltwater intrusion
climate change may also affect the quality of groundwater. for example, reduced rates of groundwater recharge, flow and discharge may increase the concentrations of contaminants in groundwater. saltwater intrusion into groundwater aquifers in coastal regions is another concern, although canadian research on this topic is limited.(26)in southern manitoba, future changes in precipitation and temperature may cause groundwater levels in some parts of the red river basin to decline faster than others.(27)these changes would affect the flow in the aquifer, and possibly shift the salinefreshwater boundary beneath the red river valley, so that the groundwater in some areas may no longer be drinkable.(27)
What emerges frim this analysis?
what emerges from this analysis is an understanding of the erosion of the feminist intent and indeed the faux-feminism
Thus if gender equality is the goal, what are the strategies that must be adopted at the various layers of intervention and non-linear processes?
critical to this process is avoiding the tick a box approach that has emerged as a sop to gender equality, the counting and measuring that has done little to challenge cultural beliefs and human rights abuses against women
what emerges from this analysis is an understanding of the erosion of the feminist intent and indeed the faux-feminism identified by zalewski (2010) and a need for constant vigilance. as bacchi and eveline (2010, 337) note there can be no sunset clause on gender analysis more prosaically we need to heed walby's (2005) call to separate the vision of gender mainstreaming from the strategies adopted to achieve gender equality. thus if gender equality is the goal, what are the strategies that must be adopted at the various layers of intervention and non-linear processes? critical to this process is avoiding the tick a box approach that has emerged as a sop to gender equality, the counting and measuring that has done little to challenge cultural beliefs and human rights abuses against women. post-disaster sites may provide the focus for a renewed commitment to gender mainstreaming, not least because of the interactions between transnationals, state and local actors in sites where gender inequalities are transparent, where actions and resource allocations can inhibit or enhance gender equality and where the world's women wait. as prugl (2010, 468) reminds us: [gender mainstreaming] needs the fl anking of agents working on behalf of feminism - activists, experts, parliamentarians and powerful feminist staff in bureaucracies - and it needs this fl anking in all state spaces, at all levels of politics, and in all functional issues areas. ... the failure of gender mainstreaming ... derives from a dearth of feminist politics in ... state spaces as much as from patriarchal rule and bureaucratic masculinism. references
What are the possible causes for difficulties of reproducing the GPLLJ diurnal precipitation cycle?
planetary boundary layer scheme and deep convection parameterization imperfections have been proposed as possible causes
What considerable skill the model has shown?
however, the model has shown considerable skill in reproducing the precipitation patterns over most part of the continent
trmm data. the difficulties of reproducing the gpllj diurnal precipitation cycle have already been reported in previous studies (e.g., lee et al. 2007 ). planetary boundary layer scheme and deep convection parameterization imperfections have been proposed as possible causes. more detailed study of the crcm5 performance in the gpllj area might be required for further improvement of the model. 8 summary and conclusions the performance of the crcm5 simulations driven by era-interim reanalysis over the north american cordex domain has been assessed in several different ways. the continental-scale performance of the crcm5 model has been compared with the reference observationbased datasets and the era-interim reanalysis. the simulation exhibits a cold bias reaching 4-6  c in the western part of the continent in summertime; this bias persists over mexico during the whole annual cycle. however, the model has shown considerable skill in reproducing the precipitation patterns over most part of the continent. in comparison with cru ts3.1 and udel datasets, the noncompensated biases of ground-based observations between canada and united states have been revealed. mountainous and coastal regions remain problematic for the model, possibly because the horizontal resolution in the simulation is insufficient for such complex conditions.
what strategy is used to investigate the susceptibility of individual species?
we present a robust prediction strategy to investigate the susceptibility of individual species to climate change
what are the lines of evidence to derive species distribution models (SDMs)?
1) mechanistic sdms based on functional traits and physiological constraints and (2) correlative sdms relating occurrence data to spatial environmental data
what is the approach used ?
our approach is based on the premise that convergence of independent lines of evidence conveys robustness to prediction and confidence to management strategies
climate change will produce novel environments and ecosystems, presenting scientists with serious challenges in forecasting the impact on biodiversity (fitzpatrick hargrove 2009). all potential management actions will require substantial public investment and it is thus imperative that the most robust methods be used to evaluate and predict the consequences of the range of management options available. here, we present a robust prediction strategy to investigate the susceptibility of individual species to climate change. our approach relies on using independent lines of evidence to derive species distribution models (sdms) with which to forecast potential range shifts: (1) mechanistic sdms based on functional traits and physiological constraints and (2) correlative sdms relating occurrence data to spatial environmental data. our approach is based on the premise that convergence of independent lines of evidence conveys robustness to prediction and confidence to management strategies. mechanistic sdms explicitly incorporate processes that limit distributions (kearney porter 2009). all species have physiologically based environmental constraints that influence their distribution and abundance and these physiological processes are strongly tied to flows of mass and energy as individual organisms interact with their environments. it is through such processes that the impacts of climate change on biodiversity are propagated to higher levels of organization such as populations, communities, and ecosystems. the field of biophysical ecology provides a basis for calculating the physiological consequences of different environmental conditions on landscape scale as a function of climate, vegetation, and terrain, and so to develop mechanistic models of range limits independent of a species' present range (porter et al. 2002; kearney porter 2004; buckley 2008; kearney et al. 2008; kearney porter 2009). because
what did the first  row show
the first row shows observations
what where the starting strends
trends derived from observations and models and aerosol forcing estimates
what trend calculations where started
natural and ozone forcing uncertainties and uncertainty in observed trend calculations
global mean and regional gradient surface temperature trends derived from observations and models and aerosol forcing estimates. the first row shows observations minus the reconstructed influence of wmghg natural ozone (g n o) forcing. the second row shows the regional aerosol forcings (per unit local area) required to match the first row's constraints. rf: radiative forcing. the third row shows observations minus the reconstructed g n o arctic-shext gradient compared with the aerosol impact on that gradient. the columns show 1890-1930 (left), 1931-1975 (centre) and 1976-2007 (right). the symbols represent calculations using sensitivities (global mean and regional gradients) from 20 climate models. uncertainties include internal variability, natural and ozone forcing uncertainties and uncertainty in observed trend calculations.
What kind of income countries and regions are expected to remain vulnerable over the medium term?
low-income countries and regions
Will low income countries and regions have more or less options to adapt to climate change?
with fewer options than highincome countries for adapting to climate change
In what context should strategies be development to reduce future vulnerability of climate change in low income regions?
in the context of development, environment and health policies
low-income countries and regions are expected to remain vulnerable over the medium term, with fewer options than highincome countries for adapting to climate change. therefore, adaptation strategies should be designed in the context of development, environment and health policies. many of the options that can be used to reduce future vulnerability are of value in adapting to current climate and can be used to achieve other environmental and social objectives. in many regions of the globe, climate change impacts on freshwater resources may affect sustainable development and put at risk the reduction of poverty and child mortality (table 7.1). it is very likely that negative impacts of increased frequency and severity of floods and droughts on sustainable development cannot be avoided [wgii 3.7]. however, aside from major extreme events, climate change is seldom the main factor exerting stress on sustainability. the significance of climate change lies in its interactions with other sources of change and stress, and its impacts should be considered in such a multi-cause context. [wgii 7.1.3, 7.2, 7.4]
What are atmospheric aerosols?
atmospheric aerosols are suspensions of solid and/or liquid particles in air
Name two important factors contributes to aerosol concentrations?
both natural and human processes contribute to aerosol concentrations
What is CCN?
cloud condensation nuclei (ccn
es 1.1. atmospheric aerosols atmospheric aerosols are suspensions of solid and/or liquid particles in air. aerosols are ubiquitous in air and are often observable as dust, smoke, and haze. both natural and human processes contribute to aerosol concentrations. on a global basis, aerosol mass derives predominantly from natural sources, mainly sea salt and dust. however, anthropogenic (manmade) aerosols, arising primarily from a variety of combustion sources, can dominate in and downwind of highly populated and industrialized regions, and in areas of intense agricultural burning. the term "atmospheric aerosol" encompasses a wide range of particle types having different compositions, sizes, shapes, and optical properties. aerosol loading, or amount in the atmosphere, is usually quantified by mass concentration or by an optical measure, aerosol optical depth (aod). aod is the vertical integral through the entire height of the atmosphere of the fraction of incident light either scattered or absorbed by airborne particles. usually numerical models and in situ observations use mass concentration as the primary measure of aerosol loading, whereas most remote sensing methods retrieve aod. es 1.2. radiative forcing of aerosols aerosols affect earth's energy budget by scattering and absorbing radiation (the "direct effect") and by modifying amounts and microphysical and radiative properties of clouds (the "indirect effects"). aerosols influence cloud properties through their role as cloud condensation nuclei (ccn) and/or ice nuclei. increases in aerosol particle concentrations may increase the ambient concentration of ccn and ice nuclei, affecting cloud properties. a ccn increase can lead to more cloud droplets so that, for fixed cloud liquid water content, the cloud droplet size will decrease. this effect leads to brighter clouds (the "cloud albedo effect"). aerosols can also affect clouds by absorbing solar energy and altering the environment in which the cloud develops, thus changing cloud properties without actually serving as ccn. such effects can change precipitation patterns as well as cloud extent and optical properties. the addition of aerosols to the atmosphere alters the intensity of sunlight scattered back to space, absorbed in the atmosphere, and arriving
Empirical analysis is based on the data of what?
the first part of the questionnaire in which we study the personal views on equity
What are the four main equity rules nearest to the personal definition of equity in international climate negotiations?
egalitarian", "sovereignty", "polluterpays", or "ability-to-pay
our empirical analysis is based on the data of the first part of the questionnaire in which we study the personal views on equity.1 after explaining the six equity rules (see previous section), agents were first surveyed on the importance of equity issues in international climate policy (we differentiate between "very high importance", "high importance", "moderate importance", "low importance", and "no importance"). we derive a corresponding ordinal variable "importance" which comprises integers from one to four for our empirical analysis whereby the value four designates "very high importance" and the value one designates "low importance" or "no importance". we also consider two dummy variables "very high importance" and "very high or high importance" derived from this ordinal variable regarding the importance of equity issues in international climate negotiations. second we asked which of the four main equity rules "egalitarian", "sovereignty", "polluterpays", or "ability-to-pay" comes nearest to the personal definition of equity in international climate negotiations. furthermore, we asked whether "poor losers" and "stand alone" should be applied as accompanying rules besides the main equity rules. third we asked for each of the six equity rules to which degree it should be incorporated in any future international climate agreement (we differentiate between "very high degree", "high degree", "moderate degree", "low degree", and "no degree"). we also differentiate between the consideration of a short-term time horizon of no more than 20 years and the consideration of a long-term time horizon of more than 20 years concerning the desired degree of incorporation of the equity principles. for both time horizons, we derive a corresponding ordinal variable "degree" which comprises integers from one to five whereby the value five designates "very high degree" and the value one designates "no degree". we also consider two dummy variables "very high degree" and "very high or high degree" derived from this ordinal variable. finally, the questionnaire contains some questions about the individual's background. in particular, we surveyed the nationality, but furthermore also the participation in a conference of the parties (cop) or a meeting of the subsidiary bodies, the field of the highest educational degree or training, the age, the gender, and the type of organization the agents work for. the individual nationality is the basis for variables of the economic and environmental (regarding future per capita co2 emissions) performance of the respondent's country. for international
What did the watershed-scale experiments demonstrate?
these watershed-scale experiments clearly demonstrated links between vegetation and streamflow
Who demonstrated that some some streamside trees used deeper groundwater instead of streamwater?
dawson and ehleringer11demonstrated complex interactions between plant water and hydrological pools, showing that some streamside trees used deeper groundwater instead of streamwater
Since when have the links between plant water-use (transpiration) and hydrology have been examined quantitatively?
links between plant water-use (transpiration) and hydrology have been examined quantitatively since the paired-watershed studies in 1921
links between plant water-use (transpiration) and hydrology have been examined quantitatively since the paired-watershed studies in 1921 (ref. 5). these watershed-scale experiments clearly demonstrated links between vegetation and streamflow. however, the paired-watershed approach can only infer the mechanisms behind these vegetation-streamflow interactions6-8. central to these inferred mechanisms is translatory flow downslope to the stream, and mixing of water within the soil profile1,2. complete mixing of water in the subsurface is the central tenant of most watershed hydrology models today9,10. these concepts influenced ecology, leading to the idea that roots take up water from the same pool that is moving to the stream. however, is this really so? using stable isotopes, dawson and ehleringer11demonstrated complex interactions between plant water and hydrological pools, showing that some streamside trees used deeper groundwater instead of streamwater. nevertheless, diel fluctuations in baseflow at watersheds around the world demonstrate clear interactions between transpiration and streamflow12. here, we directly explore links between hydrology and transpiration at the small watershed scale in a seasonally dry climate. our central questions were: to what extent do trees and streams return the same water pool to the hydrosphere and how does this vary spatially within a watershed? these questions are fundamental to testing watershed hydrology models3,13and coupled ecology- biogeochemical-hydrology models, which assume complete mixing of water moving through the soil towards the stream. little if any
What is the name of the American institution dedicated to the study of nature?
school of forestry and environmental studies
What is the name of the Chinese agricultural research organization?
center for chinese agricultural policy
What is the name of the entity that conducts the study at a global level?
freeman spogli institute for international studies
center for chinese agricultural policy, institute of geographical sciences and natural resource research, chinese academy of sciences, no. jia 11, anwai, beijing, china bschool of forestry and environmental studies, yale university, new haven, ct 06501, usa cdepartment of environmental sciences and water science and policy center, university of california riverside, riverside, ca 92521, usa dcenter for chinese agricultural policy, chinese academy of sciences, no. jia 11, anwai, beijing, china efood security and the environment program, freeman spogli institute for international studies, stanford university, stanford, ca 94305, usa received 26 may 2008; received in revised form 2 january 2009; accepted 5 january 2009
Define lentic systems?
lentic systems north of the arctic circle contain numerous small to medium lakes and a multitude of small ponds and wetland systems
Explain about relative deep lakes?
relatively deep lakes are primarily contained within alpine or foothill regions such as those of the putorana plateau in the lower basin of the yenisey river
What factor variation in water budget primarily depends?
variations in its water budget primarily depend on flows from its contributing catchment, comprised largely of interior plains lowlands and exposed bedrock north of 60 8 n. its southern counterpart, great slave lake, provides a strong hydrologic contrast to this system
lentic systems north of the arctic circle contain numerous small to medium lakes and a multitude of small ponds and wetland systems. relatively deep lakes are primarily contained within alpine or foothill regions such as those of the putorana plateau in the lower basin of the yenisey river. one very large and deep lake, great bear lake (northwest territories, canada), is found partly within the arctic circle. variations in its water budget primarily depend on flows from its contributing catchment, comprised largely of interior plains lowlands and exposed bedrock north of 60 8 n. its southern counterpart, great slave lake, provides a strong hydrologic contrast to this system. although also part of the main stem
Under which premise this is true?
this is only true under the premise that a larger fraction of organic matter than at present is converted to co2 on an annual basis
What would improve the projections of climate-change effects on litter decomposition?
projections of climate-change effects on litter decomposition would be improved if future global changes in the nature of riparian vegetation and the amounts and quality of litter inputs were known
What does the conventional models of the global carbon cycle describes?
conventional models of the global carbon cycle describe inland waters as passive pipes of organic carbon from terrestrial ecosystems to the oceans (battin et al. 2009
however, this is only true under the premise that a larger fraction of organic matter than at present is converted to co2 on an annual basis. clearly, projections of climate-change effects on litter decomposition would be improved if future global changes in the nature of riparian vegetation and the amounts and quality of litter inputs were known. conventional models of the global carbon cycle describe inland waters as passive pipes of organic carbon from terrestrial ecosystems to the oceans (battin et al. 2009). recent estimates have shown, however, that streams and rivers receive and transform a sizeable fraction of terrestrial net ecosystem production and thus contribute significantly to the global carbon cycle (battin et al. 2008, 2009). although this argument is largely based on the turnover of dissolved organic carbon (doc) received from the watershed, it illustrates the landscape-scale importance of organic matter turnover in stream networks despite their small spatial extent. plant litter is an important component of organic matter turnover in streams in addition to doc. thus, beyond the proof of principle that our study provides, our findings and their implications appear to be directly relevant to global biogeochemistry, with possible positive feedbacks on the climate system (heimann reichstein 2008).
what is the main purpose of the project?
we are developing dialogue agents that not only can execute hand-coded tasks
what are the tasks involved in this project?
including its dialogue capabilities, is driven by the execution of declaratively specified tasks that model the collaborative problems solving process in a domain-independent manner
Is there any guidance provided by the company?
i will also show running examples of our system as it learns and executes new procedures that involve finding and using information on the world wide web
while planor agentbased models provide interesting formalisms for producing dialogue agents, most robust dialogue system use much simpler technology based on finite state machines and/or slot filling models. such simpler models allow the designers to encode strong expectations that enable robust processing, however the complexity of the tasks they can represent is quite limited. we are developing dialogue agents that not only can execute hand-coded tasks, but can also learn new tasks from the user through combined demonstration and dialogue. all system behavior, including its dialogue capabilities, is driven by the execution of declaratively specified tasks that model the collaborative problems solving process in a domain-independent manner. we will describe this model and explore how it contributes to producing robust dialogue behavior on a number of different levels. i will also show running examples of our system as it learns and executes new procedures that involve finding and using information on the world wide web. 1
What does the discount rate converges?
to the worstoffto-worst-off discount rate of the worst-case scenario
How should the market rate be applied?
indiscriminately to the evaluation of all policies, independently of the affected populations
How should the policy be applied?
the choice of the best policies, as we have seen in the second section, involves a comparison of present values, not just checking that the chosen policy improves on the status quo
another element reinforces the thesis. weitzman's result of a convergence toward the lowest discount rate in the case of risk combines with the result presented in this section. in the very long run, the discount rate converges to the worstoffto-worst-off discount rate of the worst-case scenario therefore, even if there are favorable scenarios in which the destitute populations catch up and reach good standards of living, it is enough to assign a positive probability to dark scenarios in which the standards of living of the poorest stagnate in order to validate our conclusion about the negative discount rate for climate, especially mitigation, policies. of course, this does not mean that such policies should have greater priority than other policies such as redistribution toward the poor members of the present generation (schelling 1995). the choice of the best policies, as we have seen in the second section, involves a comparison of present values, not just checking that the chosen policy improves on the status quo. at least, however, we want to argue strongly against the popular thesis that the market rate should be applied indiscriminately to the evaluation of all policies, independently of the affected populations.
What is the purpose of this report?
the purpose of this report is to assess these estimates and consider ways to improve them in the future
What is this report based off of?
the unfccc report was based on a set of commissioned studies (unfccc background papers, 2007
Is this a cost study?
it is not a study of the full cost of avoiding all damage
this is an evaluation of estimates of the costs of adaptation made by the united nations framework convention on climate change (unfccc) in 2007 and by some preceding studies (unfccc, 2007; stern, 2006; world bank, 2006; oxfam, 2007; undp, 2007). the costs have been used as the basis for discussion regarding the levels of investment needed for adaptation to climate change. they have been influential in the debate concerning funding for climate change and it is important, therefore, that such estimates of cost are as robust as possible. the purpose of this report is to assess these estimates and consider ways to improve them in the future. the unfccc report was based on a set of commissioned studies (unfccc background papers, 2007). these took place over a short period dictated by the timescale of the unfccc process and the need to report the results to the next conference of the parties, so there was no time for independent review of a draft of the report. it is important, therefore, to recall the objectives of the unfccc report and the caveats that the authors ascribed to its conclusions. the study was a preliminary one of the funding, especially the public funding, estimated to be needed in the year 2030 to meet the challenge of climate change. it is not a study of the full cost of avoiding all damage. it does not cover some important activities, and other activities are only partially covered. the authors suggest that their estimates are probably under-estimates and that much more study is needed. the purpose of this evaluation is to consider the relative strengths and weaknesses of the unfccc study, so that we can determine what next steps can be taken to improve our understanding of the issue. it is not our purpose here to develop a revised set of numbers for the funding of adaptation to climate change, because we believe this requires detailed study.
What is Merawin?
this study examines the nature of boreal summer subseasonal atmospheric variability based on the new nasa modern-era retrospective analysis for research and applications (merra) for the period 1979-2010
What is guidance by jets?
an analysis of the june, july and august subseasonal 250hpa v-wind anomalies shows distinct rossby wave-like structures that appear to be guided by the mean jets
What are the seasonal mean odds?
this is exemplified by reof 4 which played a major role in the development of the most intense anomalies of the u.s. 1988 drought (during june) and the 1993 flooding (during july), though differed in the latter event by also making an important contribution to the seasonal mean anomalies
this study examines the nature of boreal summer subseasonal atmospheric variability based on the new nasa modern-era retrospective analysis for research and applications (merra) for the period 1979-2010. an analysis of the june, july and august subseasonal 250hpa v-wind anomalies shows distinct rossby wave-like structures that appear to be guided by the mean jets. on monthly subseasonal time scales, the leading waves (the first 10 rotated empirical orthogonal functions or reofs of the 250hpa v-wind) explain about 50% of the northern hemisphere vwind variability, and account for more than 30% (60%) of the precipitation (surface temperature) variability over a number of regions of the northern middle and high latitudes, including the u.s. northern great plains, parts of canada, europe, and russia. the first reof in particular, consists of a rossby wave that extends across northern eurasia where it is a dominant contributor to monthly surface temperature and precipitation variability, and played an important role in the 2003 european and 2010 russian heat waves. while primarily subseasonal in nature, the rossby waves can at times have a substantial seasonal mean component. this is exemplified by reof 4 which played a major role in the development of the most intense anomalies of the u.s. 1988 drought (during june) and the 1993 flooding (during july), though differed in the latter event by also making an important contribution to the seasonal mean anomalies. a stationary wave model (swm) is used to reproduce some of the basic features of the observed waves and provide insight into the nature of the forcing. in particular, the responses to a set of idealized forcing functions are used to map the optimal forcing patterns of the leading waves. also, experiments to reproduce the observed waves with the swm using merra-based estimates of the forcing indicate that the wave forcing is dominated by sub-monthly vorticity transients.
Which part of hemisphere occurs the first deglacial warming?
deglacial warming occurs first in the deep ocean and the surface of southern hemisphere high latitudes
How much power started in the southern polar region?
surface warming starts at 19 ka in the southern hemisphere polar region
What is the average of SST shows in deglacial warming?
the zonal average of simulated pacific sst shows the deglacial warming starts at 18 ka in the subtropics and tropics of southern hemisphere
consistent with proxy data [stott et al., 2007], our transient simulation demonstrates that deglacial warming occurs first in the deep ocean and the surface of southern hemisphere high latitudes, and then at the surface of lower latitudes (fig. 1). the zonal average of the southern ocean sst and antarctic surface air temperature (sat) in the transient simulation shows that the surface warming starts at 19 ka in the southern hemisphere polar region (fig. 2b). the zonal average of simulated pacific sst shows the deglacial warming starts at 18 ka in the subtropics and tropics of southern hemisphere, while at 17 ka along the equator. in contrast with the northward progression of deglacial warming on the surface, the deep ocean exhibits synchronous
Which has been recorded as powerful indicators of climatic site conditions in ecology?
ecology has regarded mean values as powerful indicators of climatic site conditions
What is considered as shifts in the intensity of extreme events?
changes in the duration of the longest drought period
Where is the life cycles of individuals are nested?
within the dynamics of populations
for decades, ecology has regarded mean values as powerful indicators of climatic site conditions. short-term deviations were regarded as extraordinary and nonrepresentative measurements. however, there is a smooth transition between discrete events and gradual trends of shifting means; any clear-cut distinction depends on the temporal resolution. changes in annual precipitation are generally perceived as shifting means or trends, whereas changes in the duration of the longest drought period represent shifts in the intensity of extreme events. for ecological investigations, we argue that a discrete event is distinguished from a continuous process by its abruptness, no matter whether the event is recurrent, expected, or normal (white and jentsch 2001). abruptness of an event is a function of magnitude over duration (figure 4), which is best described relative to the life cycles of the organisms of interest or to the successional speed of the ecosystems in which they occur (jentsch 2006). using such relative currency to express abruptness allows comparison among organisms with different life spans. using it to express frequency allows comparison among ecosystems of differing productivity. the distinction between "event" and "trend" is therefore an issue of hierarchy. event-based ecological research deals with several orders of magnitude in the life spans of response communities. the life cycles of individuals are nested within the dynamics of populations. likewise, climatic events are nested within climatic trends, from annual to decadal or even millenial scales. extremeness of events can be determined by statistical extremity with respect to a historical reference period (eg extraordinary deviation from the median of probability distributions; gumbel 1958; reiss and thomas 1997). extremeness can be chosen in terms of a probable recurrence interval. the 100-year event - sometimes referred to as the 1% event, since there is a 1% chance of occurrence in any given year - is widely used in disciplines as
Describe the Negishi-approach?
xj( t, r - mj( t, r )) 0 [?] t, j (7) in order to co-ordinate the export and import decisions of the individual regions, remind-r uses the negishi-approach (cf. manne and rutherford, 1994; leimbach and toth, 2003
What is a barreto-optimal solution?
in this iterative approach, the objective functions of the individual regions are merged to a global objective function by means of welfare weights w (cf. eq. 2). a particular pareto-optimal solution
Tell us about welfare weights?
which in the case of missing externalities corresponds to a market solution, can be obtained by adjusting the welfare weights according to the intertemporal trade balances bi( r bi( r
xj( t, r - mj( t, r )) 0 [?] t, j (7) in order to co-ordinate the export and import decisions of the individual regions, remind-r uses the negishi-approach (cf. manne and rutherford, 1994; leimbach and toth, 2003). in this iterative approach, the objective functions of the individual regions are merged to a global objective function by means of welfare weights w (cf. eq. 2). a particular pareto-optimal solution, which in the case of missing externalities corresponds to a market solution, can be obtained by adjusting the welfare weights according to the intertemporal trade balances bi( r bi( r 
for which country is the largest deviation simulated by ECHAM4 / OPYC3 recorded?
for germany (25% underestimation
by whom was the real loss ratios provided?
real loss ratios provided by the german insurance association (gdv
for a baseline period with recent anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations, the model-based loss ratios are validated against values derived from ecmwfreanalysis. the time average values for germany and the uk are given in table 1. as can be seen, the model-based mean loss ratios are in the same range as era40 values. the largest deviation is simulated by echam4/opyc3 for germany (25% underestimation). the variability of loss ratios for germany is well simulated, whereas for the uk figure 1. regression between era40 derived ''raw damage'' values and loss ratios for germany from the german insurance association (gdv). figure 2. loss ratio for germany in 1 cent per 1000 c  1/4  ecmwf-era40 derived values (grey), real loss ratios provided by the german insurance association (gdv) for the years 1970-1999 (black).
What can be found commonly in all major taxa?
parasites are very common in all major taxa found in intertidal soft-sediment habitats
What effect will increased levels of parasitic infections have on intertidal communities?
we argue that increased levels of parasitic infections will have substantial repercussions for intertidal communities, as illustrated by the results of a simulation model that predicts frequent local parasiteinduced extinctions of a mudflat amphipod following a modest increase in ambient temperatures
What can be looked at as more on the bright side?
on the bright side, the extreme sensitivity of trematodes to temperature increases can provide us with a new tool to monitor the ecological impact of climate change
parasites are very common in all major taxa found in intertidal soft-sediment habitats. using examples of parasites capable of regulating host population densities or of influencing the composition of entire communities, we have argued that parasites are major players in the intertidal ecosystems. their modest total biomass does not do justice to their potential ecological impact. furthermore, several physiological and ecological processes inherent to parasite transmission or pathology are likely to be altered by climate changes. in particular, global warming will almost certainly result in enhanced proliferation of trematode infective stages, not just in intertidal ecosystems but also in terrestrial and freshwater habitats as well. we argue that increased levels of parasitic infections will have substantial repercussions for intertidal communities, as illustrated by the results of a simulation model that predicts frequent local parasiteinduced extinctions of a mudflat amphipod following a modest increase in ambient temperatures. of course, such predictions rest to some extent on the assumption that there would be no other major environmental modification caused by climate change. still, within the realistic framework of the model, host extinction is the consistent outcome of a range of simulations based on slightly different scenarios, suggesting that it is not a question of if and how extinctions will occur, but when. on the bright side, the extreme sensitivity of trematodes to temperature increases can provide us with a new tool to monitor the ecological impact of climate change. parasites have been considered before as potential indicators of environmental change, such as pollution and other anthropogenic habitat degradation (see lafferty, 1997); they can serve a similar function in the context of climate change. the marked increase in cercarial release shown by apparently all trematodes
Would reducing greenhouse gas emissions help prevent climate change?
reductions of greenhouse gas emissions, even stabilization of their concentrations in the atmosphere at a low level, will neither altogether prevent climate change or sea-level rise nor altogether prevent their impacts
Are the strategies and plans to avoid climate change expensive?
the costs of adaptation can be lessened by mitigation actions that will reduce and slow the climate changes to which systems would otherwise be exposed
Will climate change affect the entire planet equally?
the impact of climate change is projected to have different effects within and between countries
adaptation can complement mitigation in a cost-effective strategy to reduce climate change risks. reductions of greenhouse gas emissions, even stabilization of their concentrations in the atmosphere at a low level, will neither altogether prevent climate change or sea-level rise nor altogether prevent their impacts. many reactive adaptations will occur in response to the changing climate and rising seas and some have already occurred. in addition, the development of planned adaptation strategies to address risks and utilize opportunities can complement mitigation actions to lessen climate change impacts. however, adaptation would entail costs and cannot prevent all damages. the costs of adaptation can be lessened by mitigation actions that will reduce and slow the climate changes to which systems would otherwise be exposed. the impact of climate change is projected to have different effects within and between countries. the challenge of addressing climate change raises an important issue of equity. mitigation and adaptation actions can, if appropriately designed, advance sustainable development and equity both within and across countries and between generations. reducing the projected increase in climate extremes is expected to benefit all countries, particularly developing countries, which are considered to be more vulnerable to climate change than developed countries. mitigating climate change would also lessen the risks to future generations from the actions of the present generation.
What is the most common method used to measure school climates?
collecting survey data is the most common method used to measure school climates
Approximately how much of empirical studies assess school climate through self-report surveys?
approximately 92 of empirical studies assess school climate through self-report surveys
Are school climate surveys relatively cheap and easy to administer or very expensive and difficult to administer?
in addition, surveys are relatively cheap and easy to administer
collecting survey data is the most common method used to measure school climates. approximately 92 of empirical studies assess school climate through self-report surveys. the surveys ask participants to reflect on their school experiences by selecting a value on likert-type scales or by selecting yes or no responses. school climate surveys are advantageous as they cover a wide range of climate dimensions, from the quality of relationships to available resources (bandyopadhyay et al. 2009 uline and tschannen-moran 2008 ). in addition, surveys are relatively cheap and easy to administer, allowing researchers to collect information from large numbers of participants in multiple areas to assess variations in climate across schools. academic, safety, and community domains of school climate are measured most often in survey studies, although the labels and definitions of those school climate dimensions vary among studies (brand et al. 2003 ).
What does wastewater originating from urban activities contain that is the greatest deterioration factor?
the wastewater contains nitrogen and phosphorus present in faeces and urine, food remains, detergents and other by-products of human activity
How does a period with high sunshine (light energy for photosynthesis) cause surface layer algae to killlower layer algae?
the algae can reach superpopulations and be present at massive concentrations at the surface layer. this surface layer hinders the penetration of light energy for the lower layers in the water body, causing the death of algae situated in these regions
How does the addition of sewage increase the algae population in a lake or reservoir?
the n and p contribution from sewage is much higher than the contribution originating from urban drainage. therefore, there is a great increase in the input of n and p onto the lake or reservoir, bringing as a result an elevation in the population of algae and other plants
sewage the greatest deterioration factor, however, is associated with wastewater originating from urban activities. the wastewater contains nitrogen and phosphorus present in faeces and urine, food remains, detergents and other by-products of human activity. the n and p contribution from sewage is much higher than the contribution originating from urban drainage. therefore, there is a great increase in the input of n and p onto the lake or reservoir, bringing as a result an elevation in the population of algae and other plants. depending on the assimilative capacity of the water body, the algal population can reach very high values, bringing about a series of problems, which are described in the subsequent item. in a period with high sunshine (light energy for photosynthesis), the algae can reach superpopulations and be present at massive concentrations at the surface layer. this surface layer hinders the penetration of light energy for the lower layers in the water body, causing the death of algae situated in these regions. the death of these algae brings in itself a series of other problems. these events of superpopulation of algae are called algal blooms
What type of leadership includes articulating a captivating vision for the future, acting as charismatic role models, fostering the acceptance of common goals, setting high performance expectations and providing individualized support and intellectual stimulation for followers?
transformational leadership (tfl) behaviors, such as articulating a captivating vision for the future, acting as charismatic role models, fostering the acceptance of common goals, setting high performance expectations, and providing individualized support and intellectual stimulation for followers
Up to now, what have the studies regarding TFL primarily focused on?
nevertheless, although these studies have added greatly to knowledge about effective leadership, they have almost exclusively focused on individual leaders and their interaction with followers
What are the most recent studies for TFL trying to focus on?
walter and bruch (2010) extended this concept to tfl, suggesting that a tfl climate emerges when employees throughout the organization perceive their direct leaders as engaging in the behaviors associated with tfl. research on this type of leadership climate is only in its beginnings, though
leaders are particularly effective if they engage in transformational leadership (tfl) behaviors, such as articulating a captivating vision for the future, acting as charismatic role models, fostering the acceptance of common goals, setting high performance expectations, and providing individualized support and intellectual stimulation for followers bass, 1985; podsakoff, mackenzie, moorman, fetter, 1990 ). many studies show that these tfl behaviors inspire high levels of performance in followers judge piccolo, 2004; lowe kroeck, 1996; podsakoff et al., 1990; wang, law, hackett, wang, chen, 2005 ). nevertheless, although these studies have added greatly to knowledge about effective leadership, they have almost exclusively focused on individual leaders and their interaction with followers. in organizations, however, leaders rarely act in isolation; instead, leaders work together with other leaders, and there are many leaders throughout the hierarchy. in addition, employees are not only exposed to their individual leader, but also see and interact with other leaders throughout the organization. does it matter for an organization as a whole, then, whether leaders throughout the organization similarly engage in tfl behaviors? the degree to which different leaders in an organization direct similar behaviors toward their subordinates is captured in the concept of leadership climate (e.g., bliese halverson, 1998; chen bliese, 2002; chen, kirkman, kanfer, allen, rosen, 2007; gavin hofmann, 2002 ). walter and bruch (2010) extended this concept to tfl, suggesting that a tfl climate emerges when employees throughout the organization perceive their direct leaders as engaging in the behaviors associated with tfl. research on this type of leadership climate is only in its beginnings, though. it remains an open question whether tfl climate holds bene fi ts for
what  is  gamma function?
the moments of the stationary distribution of population size n for the theta-logistic model are eqn 4 where and g denotes the gamma function
How to  examine the effects of climate on the population fluctuations?
to examine the effects of climate on the population fluctuations we rewrite our population models (eqns 1 and 3) on the form eqn 5 where e denotes the expectation, ud and ue are independent variables with zero mean and unit variance and no temporal autocorrelation
How to examine how different climate variables affect fluctuations in population size?
we can use eqn 5 to examine how different climate variables affect fluctuations in population size by modelling climate variable yi as random effect (saether et al 2004b
k (r) (saether et al. 2002a; saether, engen matthysen 2002b). the moments of the stationary distribution of population size n for the theta-logistic model are eqn 4 where and g denotes the gamma function (diserud engen 2000). to examine the effects of climate on the population fluctuations we rewrite our population models (eqns 1 and 3) on the form eqn 5 where e denotes the expectation, ud and ue are independent variables with zero mean and unit variance and no temporal autocorrelation. we can use eqn 5 to examine how different climate variables affect fluctuations in population size by modelling climate variable yi as random effect (saether et al 2004b), writing
How can a reproduction of the observed surface warming over the industrial period be recreated?,
to reproduce the observed surface warming over the industrial period, a high (low) climate sensitivity can be combined with a small (large) net radiative forcing and/or a high (low) ocean heat uptake
What correlatiin is there between the climate sensitivities of the CMIP3 models and their respective heat uptake efficiencies?
there is no correlation between the climate sensitivities of the cmip3 models and their respective heat uptake efficiencies (the heat flux into the ocean per unit global surface warming at the point of co2 doubling in a 1%/yr co2 increase scenario
From what approach is Radiative forcing diagnosed?
radiative forcing is not available for most cmip3 models, but can be diagnosed from an energy balance approach (see forster and taylor [2006] for details
to reproduce the observed surface warming over the industrial period, a high (low) climate sensitivity can be combined with a small (large) net radiative forcing and/or a high (low) ocean heat uptake. a small (large) total forcing is usually the result of a strong (weak) negative aerosol forcing. there is no correlation between the climate sensitivities of the cmip3 models and their respective heat uptake efficiencies (the heat flux into the ocean per unit global surface warming at the point of co2 doubling in a 1%/yr co2 increase scenario). this is not surprising, since both quantities are diagnostic quantities that usually come out at the end of the model development process. being determined by a large number of interacting processes and feedbacks, they are not easily tunable parameters in gcms. radiative forcing is not available for most cmip3 models, but can be diagnosed from an energy balance approach (see forster and taylor [2006] for details). it is shown in
What are first carbon markets designed for?
first carbon markets are designed to make government regulation of emissions cheaper by ing from how the cuts are made
What do corporations buy?
corporations that find it too expensive to meet their emissions targets through their own efforts can buy the further emissions cuts they need from firms that are able to overshoot their targets cheaply and thus have a surplus of pollution credits to sell
What do carbon markets automatically gloss over?
carbon markets thus automatically gloss over what kind of technology is used to make the cuts, what kind of industry is using it, and whether the cut made in the place where it is cheapest today will lead in fact to a historical trajectory of the least emissions in the future
first carbon markets are designed to make government regulation of emissions cheaper by ing from how the cuts are made. corporations that find it too expensive to meet their emissions targets through their own efforts can buy the further emissions cuts they need from firms that are able to overshoot their targets cheaply and thus have a surplus of pollution credits to sell. carbon markets thus automatically gloss over what kind of technology is used to make the cuts, what kind of industry is using it, and whether the cut made in the place where it is cheapest today will lead in fact to a historical trajectory of the least emissions in the future.yet these are areas requiring the most serious research and policy attention. how cuts are made now, and who makes them, will have an influence on how much can be cut in the future; the cut made by a factory in tomsk may be the result of an energy technology or way of organizing social life that will stimulate vastly multiplied future cuts, whereas a quantitatively equal cut made by a firm in toledo may be a routine efficiency improvement that should have been made long ago and leads to little else. drawingattentionaway from the type of innovation, long-term investments and broad restructuring that are crucial to speeding the transition away from fossil fuels, carbon trading tends to prioritize scattered stopgap measures that are merely likely to delay the structural change required. while emissions trading provides financial incentives for one class of polluters to innovate, it simultaneously provides financial incentives for the industries at the very centre of the global warming problem, including electricity generators, chemicals, iron and steel, cement, oil and gas, aviation and so on, to delay the sweeping changes they will have to undertake. because it is based on the false assumption that all numerically identical emissions cuts are the same in terms of climate history, carbon trading is ill-designed to stimulate sociological, political and historical inquiry into how societies achieve radical change of the kind required to handle the climate crisis. instead it reinforces the current overemphasis among policymakers on finding clever means of making a fossil fuel-dependent system slightly more efficient and of calculating timelines for achieving numerical atmospheric concentration targets that, without attention to social and political processes, are purely aspirational. second in de-emphasizing how emissions cuts are made, and in seeking new things that might be considered cuts, carbon trading has also encouraged intellectuals to posit equivalences that are scientifically dubious. for example, in order to be able to trade cuts in carbon dioxide for cuts in other greenhouse gases, the climatic hazards associated with each gas must be commensurated with the others. figures for 'co2 equivalences' emanating from the intergovernmental panel on climate change, the un's scientific climate advisory panel, however, are admitted to be gross oversimplifications: the effects and lifetimes of different greenhouse gases in different parts of the atmosphere are so complex and multiple that any straightforward equation is impossible. the original carbon dioxide equivalence figure for hfc-23 of11,700 originally put forward by the ipcc in 1995^1996 was revised in 2007 to 14,800, and the error band of this estimate is still an enormous plus or minus 5,000 (mackenzie, forthcoming). the practical effects of this oversimplification of reality are considerable: hfc-23 destruction is the largest single credit earner in the kyoto protocol's clean development mechanism, accounting for 67 percent of the credits generated in 2005 and 34 percent of those generated in 2006 (world bank, 2007:27).
What does global application of the forest carbon sequestration incentive generate?
global application of the forest carbon sequestration incentive generates a sixfold increase in global land-based abatement, most of which occurs in forestry si appendix table s10 a 
What does the second scenario enable?
the carbon-based increase in economic returns to forests under this second scenario enables this sector to bid land away from agriculture in non-annex i countries, thereby reducing emissions and possibly limiting the need for the direct regulation of agricultural emissions in these countries
How much does agricultural abatement increase by?
agricultural abatement also increases by 50%, with livestock contributing the largest share
the carbon-based increase in economic returns to forests under this second scenario enables this sector to bid land away from agriculture in non-annex i countries, thereby reducing emissions and possibly limiting the need for the direct regulation of agricultural emissions in these countries.|this outcome is most notable in regions with large areas of tropical forests, such as latin america, but also in subsaharan africa and india si appendix table s10 b offers a detailed breakdown). moreover, global application of the forest carbon sequestration incentive generates a sixfold increase in global land-based abatement, most of which occurs in forestry si appendix table s10 a ). agricultural abatement also increases by 50%, with livestock contributing the largest share.
Which table are the results summarized?
table 3
Did R&D experience incline or decline in Annex B countries?
decline of r&d expenditure in all annex b countries
In what year was this impact studied?
2001
the impact on r&d expenditure and consequently on technology and the emission/output ratio of the us decision to withdraw from the kyoto protocol has recently been studied by buchner, carraro and cersosimo (2001), where a model with endogenous and induced technical change is used. in this paper, the effect of the lower permit price on the incentives to undertake ghg emission reducing r&d are quantified. the results are summarised in table 3, which confirms the decline of r&d expenditure in all annex b countries after the us defection from the kyoto protocol. table 3. implication of the us withdrawal on the amount of r&d
What would be the effect ofor the U.S. withdrawal from the Kyoto Protcol?
u.s. withdrawal together with the new provisions of bonn are likely to reduce environmental effectiveness to zero
What can the U.S. do to affect global emissions?
compliance under the new bonn amendments would accommodate a substantial cut in global emissions at small compliance costs
Small compliance costs for OECD countries with significant results could convince the U.S. to do what?
small compliance costs for oecd countries rising some hopes that the u.s. might rejoin the kyoto protocol during the next years
we investigate how the u.s. withdrawal and the amendments of the bonn climate policy conference in 2001 will change the economic and environmental impacts of the kyoto protocol in its original form. based on simulations with a large-scale computable general equilibrium model, we find that u.s. withdrawal together with the new provisions of bonn are likely to reduce environmental effectiveness to zero. u.s. compliance under the new bonn amendments would accommodate a substantial cut in global emissions at small compliance costs for oecd countries rising some hopes that the u.s. might rejoin the kyoto protocol during the next years. key words: climate policy, emission trading, computable general equilibrium jel classification: d58, q43, q58 we would like to thank sergey paltsev and thomas f. rutherford (university of colorado), till requate (university of heidelberg), and peter zapfel (european commission) for helpful comments. financial support from the european commission under the project climate change policy and global trade (ccgt) and greenhouse gases emission control strategies (gecs) is gratefully acknowledged. regarding any remaining inadequacies, the usual caveat applies.
What is the reason for the differential trends along?
the reason for the differential trends along the eastern and western slopes is not clear, but worthy of further investigation
Describe the tropical conditions east of the Andes?
since convective activity has increased over tropical south america to the east of the andes (figure 2), it is reasonable to assume that the markedly different temperature trends may be affected by changes in cloud cover as well
Describe the tropical effects of antisense?
the observed increase in convective cloud cover to the east of the andes may have dampened the near-surface warming through a reduction of incoming shortwave radiation, while this effect is probably of minor importance over the arid western slopes of the andes. the east-west difference
the reason for the differential trends along the eastern and western slopes is not clear, but worthy of further investigation. since convective activity has increased over tropical south america to the east of the andes (figure 2), it is reasonable to assume that the markedly different temperature trends may be affected by changes in cloud cover as well. the observed increase in convective cloud cover to the east of the andes may have dampened the near-surface warming through a reduction of incoming shortwave radiation, while this effect is probably of minor importance over the arid western slopes of the andes. the east-west difference
Can average values of K2 be estimated based on a qualitative description of the water body?
some researchers, studying water bodies with different characteristics, proposed average values for k2 based on a qualitative description of the water body (table 3.4
What kind of field techniques were employed in the studies?
various field techniques were employed in their studies, such as tracers, equilibrium disturbance, mass balance and others. 102 to wastewater characteristics, treatment and disposal
Do shallower and faster water bodies tend to have a larger reaeration coefficient?
shallower and faster water bodies tend to have a larger reaeration coefficient, due, respectively, to the greater ease in mixing along the depth and the creation of more turbulence on the surface (see figure 3.11
some researchers, studying water bodies with different characteristics, proposed average values for k2 based on a qualitative description of the water body (table 3.4). shallower and faster water bodies tend to have a larger reaeration coefficient, due, respectively, to the greater ease in mixing along the depth and the creation of more turbulence on the surface (see figure 3.11). the values in table 3.4 can be used in the absence of specific data from the water body. it must be taken into consideration that the values from this table are usually lower than those obtained by the other methods discussed below. however, there are indications that, in some situations, the tabulated values result in better fitting to measured do data than those obtained from hydraulic formula. b) k2 values as a function of the hydraulic characteristics of the water body other researchers correlated the reaeration coefficient k2 with the hydraulic variables of the water body. various field techniques were employed in their studies, such as tracers, equilibrium disturbance, mass balance and others. 102 to wastewater characteristics, treatment and disposal
In fact, research examining personal responses to climate change highlights what?
in fact, research examining personal responses to climate change highlights that there are some common attitude types among publics around the world
Research conducted in Canada also found what?
research conducted in canada also found four typical responses
These results converge on several findings, which are?
these results converge on several findings: they show systematically varying levels of concern, the presence of skeptical views in all societies studied, and some degree of acceptance, ranging from solid to tempered. most importantly, however, the cultural worldviews of individuals fundamentally determine their attitudes toward climate change
these findings are confirmed in in-depth crossnational studies,81within-nation, cross-cultural subgroup studies12,93,94as well as within-nation studies exploring alternative explanatory drivers of attitudes and behaviors95,96clearly reveal the influence of deepseated values and beliefs about the workings of the world--partly also reflective of differences in individual personalities (e.g., more pessimistic or optimistic individuals)97--on interpretations of climate change. weber98therefore concludes that social and moral framings of climate change may be more effective than purely cognitive-rational or affective appeals to get through to people. in fact, research examining personal responses to climate change highlights that there are some common attitude types among publics around the world. early work on cultural theory99suggested that the four (or five) generalized types of cultural worldviews held by an individual (the solidarist, hierarchist, individualist, and egalitarian (as well as fatalist) predispositions)bhave an effect on how climate change is viewed.94,96,100,101increasingly, this is shown in empirical work. for example, norwegian focus group research suggests four typical response types (the acceptors, the tempered acceptors, the uncertain, and the skeptics).83some aspects of these types correspond to the egalitarian (acceptors and tempered acceptors) while the uncertain and the skeptics do not correspond well to cultural theory types. a study of australian responses to climate change also suggests that there are four types of basic attitudes; concern, skepticism, apprehension, and action.102in this case, the concern and action groups resonate with the egalitarian and the apprehensive resonate with fatalist views, but the skeptics as well as aspects of the apprehensive do not easily correspond to cultural theory typology. research conducted in canada also found four typical responses, the individualist (resonant with the egalitarian), the systemist (also resonant with the egalitarian), the skeptic (resonant with the individualists of cultural theory), and the economist (a version of the egalitarian).84these results converge on several findings: they show systematically varying levels of concern, the presence of skeptical views in all societies studied, and some degree of acceptance, ranging from solid to tempered. most importantly, however, the cultural worldviews of individuals fundamentally determine their attitudes toward climate change.
What are the indications in the 2012 data?
there are indications in the 2012 data of a slowdown in the increase of emissions and, for the first time, a decoupling of gdp growth from the emissions development
What is the most promising strategies to tackle global emissions?
a further expansion of renewable energies and improvements in the efficiency sector remain the most promising strategies to tackle global emissions
Where relatively low emission levels are found?
traditionally, relatively low emission levels are found in india, morocco and egypt, but overall the frontrunner group remains small
regarding global co2 emissions, there is an interesting and diverse debate currently taking place. whereas a new emissions record was observed in the 2011 data11 as well as a rise in the globally measured co2 concentration12 in 2012, there have also been developments in the past years that raise cautious hopes of not exceeding the 2degc limit. furthermore, there are indications in the 2012 data of a slowdown in the increase of emissions and, for the first time, a decoupling of gdp growth from the emissions development.13 a further expansion of renewable energies and improvements in the efficiency sector remain the most promising strategies to tackle global emissions. traditionally, relatively low emission levels are found in india, morocco and egypt, but overall the frontrunner group remains small. the bottom five countries in emissions levels did not change since last year's edition. saudi arabia, australia, luxembourg, canada and the usa still need to make a lot more effort to lower their emissions before an improvement can be seen in their positions. apart from some countries such as sweden and norway, which lost ground slightly, and ireland, which climbed in its position, the overall results in this section show a stable picture. very good good moderate poor very poor not included in assessment
what will happen when climate gets changes?
climate change will reduce the extent of ice cover on lakes in the northern hemisphere (magnuson et al. 2000), which may influence the invasion process by increasing light levels for aquatic plants, reducing the occurrence of low oxygen conditions in winter, and exposing aquatic organisms to longer periods of predation from terrestrial predators
what if global warming redues?
if global warming reduces ice cover and thus the extent of winter hypoxia, there will be increased pressure to manage these lakes for sports fisheries. this will increase the pool of non-native fish species likely to
how do Altered Pathways of Species s Lakes ?
altered pathways of species s lakes that experience low oxygen concentrations under ice cover are generally not managed for sport fisheries and thus often retain assemblages of native fishes, amphibians, or invertebrates
climate change will reduce the extent of ice cover on lakes in the northern hemisphere (magnuson et al. 2000), which may influence the invasion process by increasing light levels for aquatic plants, reducing the occurrence of low oxygen conditions in winter, and exposing aquatic organisms to longer periods of predation from terrestrial predators. altered pathways of species s lakes that experience low oxygen concentrations under ice cover are generally not managed for sport fisheries and thus often retain assemblages of native fishes, amphibians, or invertebrates (rahel 1984; schindler parker 2002). if global warming reduces ice cover and thus the extent of winter hypoxia, there will be increased pressure to manage these lakes for sports fisheries. this will increase the pool of non-native fish species likely to
What is a purpose served by the aerator?
the aerators serve not only to guarantee the oxygenation of the medium but also to maintain the suspended solids (biomass) dispersed in the liquid medium
Why is  the detention time in the sedimentation pond  two days?
the detention times in the sedimentation ponds are low, in the order of 2 days. this time is enough for an efficient removal of the suspended solids produced in the aerated lagoon
Can the effluent from a complete-mix aerated lagoon be directly charged and if the answer is no, why not?
the quality of the effluent from a complete-mix aerated lagoon is not adequate for direct discharge, owing to the high levels of suspended solids
complete-mix aerated lagoons are essentially aerobic. the aerators serve not only to guarantee the oxygenation of the medium but also to maintain the suspended solids (biomass) dispersed in the liquid medium. the typical detention time of a complete-mix aerated lagoon is in the order of 2 to 4 days. the quality of the effluent from a complete-mix aerated lagoon is not adequate for direct discharge, owing to the high levels of suspended solids. for this reason, these lagoons are usually followed by other ponds, where settling and stabilisation of the settled solids can take place. these ponds are denominated sedimentation ponds figure 16.1 presents the flowsheet of the system. the detention times in the sedimentation ponds are low, in the order of 2 days. this time is enough for an efficient removal of the suspended solids produced in the aerated lagoon. however, it does not contribute to an additional biochemical removal of bod, as a result of the low biomass concentration maintained in suspension in the liquid medium (the biomass tends to settle). besides this, the sludge accumulation capacity is relatively reduced, implying the need of its removal every 1 to 5 years (there are systems with continuous sludge removal, using pumps coupled to rafts). the land requirements for this system are the smallest within the pond systems. the energy requirements are similar to the other aerated lagoon systems.
What are the two types of settling tanks?
one rectangular with horizontal flow, and the other circular with central feeding
Where are the details about the desings of those settling tanks?
details about the design of these settling tanks are presented in the relevant chapters of this book
Is the sedimentation occurs in the wastewater treatment?
sedimentation occurs in various other wastewater treatment units
physical-chemical treatment (chemical coagulation) of mainly industrial wastewater, but also domestic wastewater besides these, sedimentation occurs in various other wastewater treatment units, such as stabilisation ponds, even if they have not been specifically designed for this purpose. the main objective in most of the applications is to produce a clarified effluent that is, with a low suspended solids concentration. however, at the same time it is also frequently desired to obtain a thickened sludge to help its subsequent treatment. figures 10.1 and 10.2 present the schematics of two types of settling tanks, one rectangular with horizontal flow, and the other circular with central feeding. details about the design of these settling tanks are presented in the relevant chapters of this book, related to the various wastewater treatment processes. in the present chapter, only the basic principles of sedimentation are presented.
Write 4 exemples of precipitation.
relative humidity, solar radiation, wind speed and direction
it is also important to note that climatic variables other than temperature and precipitation (e.g., relative humidity, solar radiation, wind speed and direction) may bias empirical estimates through the classic omitted variables problem. the existence of these other variables and their correlation with temperature or precipitation may be location specific. for example, in a panel regression with country and year fixed-effects and country-specific trends, hsiang (2010) finds that exposure to hurricane winds in caribbean basin countries is correlated over time with a country's local surface temperature, with each 1 degree celsius increase in a country's summer surface temperature being correlated with a 2.6 (+- 1.2) meter per second increase in area-averaged wind exposure in that country. this increase in wind exposure is substantial, since it raises expected hurricane damages by 20 percent (hsiang and narita 2012), suggesting potentially biased estimates of temperature impacts if wind exposure is excluded from the analysis. in summary, if temperature, precipitation, and other atmospheric variables are correlated, a study that seeks to extrapolate (based on an estimated response function) potential climate impacts must include all of these variables in order to obtain an unbiased estimate of the effect of each variable.
For neighbors in the snow thick spot? Â 
ice is transported in thickness space to neighboring categories (the first term on the rhs) and then is grown or melted laterally (the second term). next, the dynamics scheme computes the velocity, ice is transported horizontally (the third term) and finally is mechanically redistributed among categories (the fourth term). vertical growth and melting are computed using the energy-conserving thermodynamic scheme of bitz and lipscomb (1999), which is based on the work of maykut and untersteiner (1971
What is a shortwave albedo? Â 
the shortwave albedo is a function of ice and snow thickness and temperature in each of two radiative bands, visible and near ir. turbulent exchange with the atmosphere follows large (1998), while the ice-ocean heat flux is based on mcphee (1992). the top-surface fluxes depend on the new-time surface temperature and are computed within the sea ice model for each ice category
equation (1) is discretized in thickness space by dividing the itd into n categories, each with a prescribed thickness range, plus an open water category. the equation is solved in stages. first, the thermodynamic scheme computes the growth rate f which gives a new set of category thicknesses. ice is transported in thickness space to neighboring categories (the first term on the rhs) and then is grown or melted laterally (the second term). next, the dynamics scheme computes the velocity, ice is transported horizontally (the third term) and finally is mechanically redistributed among categories (the fourth term). vertical growth and melting are computed using the energy-conserving thermodynamic scheme of bitz and lipscomb (1999), which is based on the work of maykut and untersteiner (1971). the model has multiple ice layers (typically four) and a single snow layer. a vertical salinity profile is prescribed to account for brine pockets, which modify the conductivity and specific heat of the ice. each ice layer has an enthalpy, defined as the energy needed to completely melt a unit mass of brine-filled ice. the enthalpy is a function of the prognostic temperature and prescribed salinity. temperature changes are given by a vertical heat diffusion equation, which is solved implicitly using a tridiagonal matrix solver. melting at the top surface, along with melting and growth at the bottom surface, are a function of the net radiative and turbulent fluxes exchanged with the atmosphere and ocean. the shortwave albedo is a function of ice and snow thickness and temperature in each of two radiative bands, visible and near ir. turbulent exchange with the atmosphere follows large (1998), while the ice-ocean heat flux is based on mcphee (1992). the top-surface fluxes depend on the new-time surface temperature and are computed within the sea ice model for each ice category.
What does MarkSim guarantees?
marksim guarantees that in the long run the values used as a starting point for a simulation series will be returned as the average of the simulated series
What happens when GCM differentials are added to the starting values?
when gcm differentials are added to the starting values, not only may the regression values for the coefficients change, but also they may completely change the climate cluster that is associated with that point
What is the meaning of the change of values of the coefficient and of the climate cluster associated to that point?
when gcm differentials are added to the starting values, not only may the regression values for the coefficients change, but also they may completely change the climate cluster that is associated with that point. this means that the simulated climate has been shifted to a different type
marksim guarantees that in the long run the values used as a starting point for a simulation series will be returned as the average of the simulated series. this is to be expected in a valid 12 12 weather simulator. if this were the only thing it could do, it would not be judged a good downscaler. when gcm differentials are added to the starting values, not only may the regression values for the coefficients change, but also they may completely change the climate cluster that is associated with that point. this means that the simulated climate has been shifted to a different type. thus we have a form of "climate typing", although not one the original coiners of that phrase would recognise as such.
Identify the two factors that will play a key role in how populations or species of endotherms will respond to climate change?
thermoregulation, thermal sensitivity, and the co-adaptation of the two will play an important role in how populations or species of endotherms will respond to a changing climate
What does bioenergetic models suggest about heterothermic mammals?
bioenergetic models suggest that seasonally heterothermic mammals may increase in abundance relative to homeothermic species as rising temperatures allow hibernators to shift into some high latitude areas (humphries et al. 2004) and phylogenetically-independent analyses suggest that heterothermic thermoregulation might lead to decreased risk of extinction (liow et al. 2009
What happens to a thermal specialist if increases in temperature occur during winter or in temperature regions when Tas are below the TNZ?
conversely, if the increases in temperature occur during winter or in temperate regions (ipcc 2007) when tas are below the tnz, a thermal specialist could gain an advantage relative to a thermal generalist because the time and energy required to maintain tb within a narrow range will decrease, which is likely to be more beneficial to homeothermic species than to heterothermic species
thermoregulation, thermal sensitivity, and the co-adaptation of the two will play an important role in how populations or species of endotherms will respond to a changing climate. for example, others have speculated that plasticity of physiological responses used by heterothermic endotherms might put them at a competitive advantage over homeothermic endotherms in a changing environment (canale and henry 2010). bioenergetic models suggest that seasonally heterothermic mammals may increase in abundance relative to homeothermic species as rising temperatures allow hibernators to shift into some high latitude areas (humphries et al. 2004) and phylogenetically-independent analyses suggest that heterothermic thermoregulation might lead to decreased risk of extinction (liow et al. 2009). such discussions about how variation in thermoregulatory characteristics will affect a species' response to climate change are important and lead us to ask several deceptively simple questions: will sympatric endotherms with different thermal characteristics display different responses to a warming climate? what roles will future adaptation and phenotypic plasticity play in responses by endotherms and what are the limits of these factors in mediating responses to climate change? what effects can we expect short-term, but increasingly common, anomalies in weather to have on endotherms? here, we ask what effect differences in thermal characteristics of species will have on the species' responses to climate change. for simplicity, let us first assume that thermal performance curves do not vary intraspecifically and that endotherms have no capacity to adapt or acclimatize to climate changes in the future (i.e., thermal performance curves are fixed, at least relative to the speed of environmental change) and that two species in the same environment experience climate change in the same way. these are likely unrealistic assumptions (jiguet et al. 2010; sears and angilletta 2011), but these simplifications provide a convenient starting point for the discussion. several factors may affect these responses, including the relative characteristics of the thermal performance curves of the species in question. for example, assume that a single value of tb represents the thermal optimum of both a thermal specialist and a thermal generalist, but they differ in thermal breadth. the principles of jensen's inequality (ruel and ayres 1999; martin and huey 2008; boyles and mckechnie 2010) predict that the skewed relationship between tb and thermal performance may lead to a larger relative decrease in performance in a thermal specialist than in a thermal generalist as tb exceeds the optimum. in this scenario, the specialist may have to increase the time and/ or energy spent on thermoregulation substantially, whereas the generalist may have to spend less time and/or energy on thermoregulation, thereby gaining a relative advantage over the specialist. thus, either long-term directional increases in ta or short-term weather events that drive ta above the tnz should favor generalist thermoregulators over their more specialized competitors. the response will also vary according to the seasonal timing of increases in temperature associated with climate change. if it is during summer in a warm area where tas are likely to be within or above the tnz, warmer environmental temperatures will necessarily cause either an increase in tb or an increase in the energy or time (or both) devoted to thermoregulation to maintain tb near optimal levels. therefore, the relative responses should be similar to those described above. conversely, if the increases in temperature occur during winter or in temperate regions (ipcc 2007) when tas are below the tnz, a thermal specialist could gain an advantage relative to a thermal generalist because the time and energy required to maintain tb within a narrow range will decrease, which is likely to be more beneficial to homeothermic species than to heterothermic species. these predictions can be extended to shifts in range as well. for example, in a hot desert environment, an increasing maximum ta may exert stronger selective pressure on a thermal specialist than on a generalist, making a shift in range more likely for the specialist. in environments in which endotherms experience both ta4 tb and scarce, unpredictable water resources, the physiological conflict between evaporative cooling and conservation of water will exacerbate selective pressure on thermal specialists that maintain tb within a very narrow range. conversely, a warming winter in a cold temperate climate may impose a cost on a generalist (e.g., if it warms enough to make torpor less efficient energetically but not warm enough to allow heterotherms to completely avoid it) while lessening the pressure on specialists (e.g., by lessening the cost of maintaining a high tb). in this scenario, the generalist species is likely to gain more benefit from a poleward shift in range range than is the specialist.
On which date the incident in central Mali happened?
at sunrise on 6 august 2001, near the village of karbaye in central mali, young men from the village wait with rifles in the bushes and open fire at a group of herders who bring livestock to a pond close to the village
How many inhabitants in the villages?
there are approximately 400 inhabitants in karbaye and about 1,070 in guirowel (direction nationale de la statistique et de l'informatique, 1998
In which year the The Office Riz Mopti established?
the office riz mopti (orm) was established in 1972 with world bank funding
at sunrise on 6 august 2001, near the village of karbaye in central mali, young men from the village wait with rifles in the bushes and open fire at a group of herders who bring livestock to a pond close to the village. some three to five people are killed and 15-30 injured in the skirmish that follows. most of the killed and injured are herders who came from the neighboring village of guirowel. the two villages are located approximately one kilometer apart (figure 6) and are situated in the leydy of kounary in mopti region. guirowel is primarily a pastoral fulani village while in karbaye the majority are malinke' farmers. there are approximately 400 inhabitants in karbaye and about 1,070 in guirowel (direction nationale de la statistique et de l'informatique, 1998). even though 'farmers' may also own livestock and 'herders' may also farm (or at least control farmland), these two identities still hold a strong position in mali and in the delta area. farmers in karbaye cultivate paddy rice on flooded land in addition to the growing of rain-fed millet, fruits, and vegetables, while burgu pastures represent a key resource for pastoral production. several development interventions have been implemented in this area during the last decades. the office riz mopti (orm) was established in 1972 with world bank funding, as part of a large national initiative aiming at increasing agricultural production. orm has focused on transforming 'vacant' land into rice fields and building irrigation systems to distribute water to plots of one hectare each, which people can rent. orm established a
what does the authors discussed?
on the basis of a step-by-step procedure (see t. r. hinkin, 1998), the authors discuss the design and evaluation of a self-report battery
how many organizational members are involved?
more than 3,000 organizational members from public and private sector organizations participated in the validation procedure of the ocq-c, p, r
what information has been yielded from analysis?
the information obtained from the analyses yielded 5 climate-of-change dimensions, 3 process-of-change dimensions, and 3 readiness-for-change dimensions
on the basis of a step-by-step procedure (see t. r. hinkin, 1998), the authors discuss the design and evaluation of a self-report battery (organizational change questionnaire-climate of change, processes, and readiness; ocq-c, p, r) that researchers can use to gauge the internal context or climate of change, the process factors of change, and readiness for change. the authors describe 4 studies used to develop a psychometrically sound 42-item assessment tool that researchers can administer in organizational settings. more than 3,000 organizational members from public and private sector organizations participated in the validation procedure of the ocq-c, p, r. the information obtained from the analyses yielded 5 climate-of-change dimensions, 3 process-of-change dimensions, and 3 readiness-for-change dimensions. keywords: assessment of climate of change and change process, readiness for change, scale development
Fig. S1 shows what?
fig. s1 effect of agreement dimensions on public support for global climate change cooperation in france, germany, the united kingdom, and the united states by level of educational attainment
This plot shows estimates of the effect of randomly assigned agreement features on the probability of supporting what?
this plot shows estimates of the effect of randomly assigned agreement features on the probability of supporting an agreement
The bars indicates what percentage of confidence intervals?
the bars indicate 95% confidence intervals and the points without bars indicate the reference category for a given agreement dimension
fig. s1 effect of agreement dimensions on public support for global climate change cooperation in france, germany, the united kingdom, and the united states by level of educational attainment. this plot shows estimates of the effect of randomly assigned agreement features on the probability of supporting an agreement. estimates are based on the regression of agreement support on dummy variables for values of the agreement dimensions with standard errors clustered by respondent. we coded respondents' levels of education as high using the following scheme: france: "bac to bac+2" or "bac+3 or more" or higher; germany: "realschule" or higher; united kingdom: "gce a level or higher certificate" or higher; united states: "some college" or higher. the bars indicate 95% confidence intervals and the points without bars indicate the reference category for a given agreement dimension.
what is the general point mentioned here?
the general point is that the decision whether to exploit the revenue-recycling effect can determine the sign of the ef fi ciency change associated with a given level of abatement or environmental tax rate
what does this study examined?
study examined how the impacts of a cap-and-trade system differ depending on the design of the system
what does table 2 displays?
table 2 displays results from that study. in all cases considered, the overall cap was the same
the general point is that the decision whether to exploit the revenue-recycling effect can determine the sign of the ef fi ciency change associated with a given level of abatement or environmental tax rate. this underscores the notion that, after taking fi scal interactions into account, the design of policy instrument can be as important as the type of instrument chosen. goulder et al. (2010) have explored these issues numerically using a general equilibrium model of the u.s. that study examined how the impacts of a cap-and-trade system differ depending on the design of the system. table 2 displays results from that study. in all cases considered, the overall cap was the same. the cap was imposed in 2009, required a reduction in emissions of about 3% within the fi rst fi ve years, and became increasingly stringent so as to require a 42% reduction after 20 years. the cap-and-trade systems considered differed in terms of the reliance on auctioning versus free allocation, and in the way any revenues are returned to the private sector. the bottom row of the table shows the differences in gdp costs. the fi gures in that row represent the cost as the percentage change in the present value of gdp over the interval 2009 - 2030. under
How much does the atmospheric forcing in cloudy-sky condition decrease by in the monsoon season and in January?
in the monsoon season and in january, the atmospheric forcing in cloudy-sky condition decreases by more than 10% as compared to clear-sky condition
What is the mean annual contribution of the anthropogenic surface and atmospheric forcing to the total surface and atmospheric forcing over Kanpur?
the mean annual contribution of the anthropogenic surface and atmospheric forcing to the total surface and atmospheric forcing over kanpur is 63% and 71% respectively
What does the bold line with solid circles indicate?
the bold line with solid circles indicates the cloud fraction for the corresponding month
w m 2, respectively. similar to total forcing, inclusion of clouds increases the toa forcing, which balances the reduction of the surface forcing for most of the months (figure 7b). however, in the monsoon season and in january, the atmospheric forcing in cloudy-sky condition decreases by more than 10% as compared to clear-sky condition. the mean annual contribution of the anthropogenic surface and atmospheric forcing to the total surface and atmospheric forcing over kanpur is 63% and 71% respectively. the temporal variations of the toa, surface and atmospheric anthropogenic forcing over kanpur in sw are shown in figure 7c. unlike the total aerosol forcing, the figure 5d. same as figure 5c but for cloudy-sky conditions. the bold line with solid circles indicates the cloud fraction for the corresponding month.
how does the Quantitative models for climate policy modeling differ?
quantitative models for climate policy modeling differ in the production structure used and in the sizes of the elasticities of substitution
what does this paper estimates?
this paper estimates the parameters of two-level ces production functions with capital, labour and energy as inputs, and is the first to systematically compare all nesting structures
In which does climate policy models has bigger effect?
with lower elasticities and with factor-specific technological change, some climate policy models may find a bigger effect of endogenous technological change on mitigating the costs of climate policy
quantitative models for climate policy modeling differ in the production structure used and in the sizes of the elasticities of substitution. the empirical foundation for both is generally lacking. this paper estimates the parameters of two-level ces production functions with capital, labour and energy as inputs, and is the first to systematically compare all nesting structures. using industry-level data from 12 oecd countries, we find that the nesting structure where capital and labour are combined first, fits the data best, but for most countries and industries we cannot reject that all three inputs can be put into one single nest. these two nesting structures are used by most climate models. however, while several climate policy models use a cobb-douglas function for (part of the) production function, we reject elasticities equal to one, in favour of considerably smaller values. finally we find evidence for factor-specific technological change. with lower elasticities and with factor-specific technological change, some climate policy models may find a bigger effect of endogenous technological change on mitigating the costs of climate policy.
Did the mean CHAR values of the lakes differ?
mean char values (during the last 4000 years) at each lake differed by several orders of magnitude (table 1
What are the names of the lakes with most charcoal on average?
foy and little lakes had the most charcoal on average, whereas crater, bluff and cedar lakes had the least
What was revealed by the results?
results from multiple regression analysis revealed that lake area, mean watershed slope, watershed area, elevation and ap percentages explained much of the difference in average bchar among sites r2 adj/0.92, p b/0.001) (table 2
mean char values (during the last 4000 years) at each lake differed by several orders of magnitude (table 1). foy and little lakes had the most charcoal on average, whereas crater, bluff and cedar lakes had the least. results from multiple regression analysis revealed that lake area, mean watershed slope, watershed area, elevation and ap percentages explained much of the difference in average bchar among sites r2 adj/0.92, p b/0.001) (table 2). a statistically significant relationship p b/0.001) was found between average bchar and each of the five variables, meaning that lakes at low elevations, with high ap percentages, large lake-surface or watershed area and/or steep watershed slopes had greater charcoal abundance than those at lower elevations, with lower ap percentages, smaller lake or watershed areas and/or with lower-gradient watersheds. the regressions also indicated that fire frequency and sedimentation rates were not related to mean charcoal abundance.
What is the main concern of conservation biologists?
conservation biologists are gravely concerned that climate change will cause widespread extinctions due to geographic shifts in habitat conditions that are too fast for many species to keep up with given their limited capacities for migration
What does the study expect from nurseries and gardens?
with estimates of migration rates of ~0.1-5 km per year required for geographic ranges to track climate change over the next century, we expect nurseries and gardens to provide a substantial head start on migration during climate change for many native plants
Is there a consensus regarding the implementation of "assisted migration"?
while conservation biologists actively debate whether or not we should intentionally provide "assisted migration", it is clear that we have already assisted the migration of a large number of species
conservation biologists are gravely concerned that climate change will cause widespread extinctions due to geographic shifts in habitat conditions that are too fast for many species to keep up with given their limited capacities for migration. to investigate the potential for commercial plant nurseries to provide a head start for northward range shifts of european plants in the face of ongoing climate change, we compared the natural ranges of 357 native species with their commercial ranges based on 246 plant nurseries throughout europe. in 73% of native species, commercial northern range limits exceeded natural northern range limits, with a mean difference of ~1000 km for these species. with estimates of migration rates of ~0.1-5 km per year required for geographic ranges to track climate change over the next century, we expect nurseries and gardens to provide a substantial head start on migration during climate change for many native plants. while conservation biologists actively debate whether or not we should intentionally provide "assisted migration", it is clear that we have already assisted the migration of a large number of species.
What are the shortcomings of the delta approach?
the use of observed climate as a baseline implies that the number of rainy days does not change for a future climate. extreme precipitation is modified by the same factor as all other precipitation events. summarizing rcm output for large regions (as done in this study) limits the use of improved detail in rcm simulations, e.g. increased resolution
What are the advantages o f the scaling approach?
it provides a more direct representation of rcm results and thus climate variability more consistent with the rcm simulations. it has potential to develop together with the rcms, such that eventually little or no scaling may be necessary. it can make use of increased detail in the rcm simulations, e.g. increased resolution
What are the shortcomings of the scaling approach?
it is quite sensitive to the quality of the rcm used as input. it assumes a static bias correction that may not adequately represent future climate changes, such as changes in circulation
shortcomings of the delta approach: the use of observed climate as a baseline implies that the number of rainy days does not change for a future climate. extreme precipitation is modified by the same factor as all other precipitation events. summarizing rcm output for large regions (as done in this study) limits the use of improved detail in rcm simulations, e.g. increased resolution. advantages o f the scaling approach: it provides a more direct representation of rcm results and thus climate variability more consistent with the rcm simulations. it has potential to develop together with the rcms, such that eventually little or no scaling may be necessary. it can make use of increased detail in the rcm simulations, e.g. increased resolution. shortcomings of the scaling approach: it is quite sensitive to the quality of the rcm used as input. it assumes a static bias correction that may not adequately represent future climate changes, such as changes in circulation.
Where do these taxa occur in the greatest relative abundances?
in lakes with high tp concentrations
What is high TP optima defined as?
in excess of 100 ug l-1
for esthwaite water the overestimation by the model for the last four decades arises because of the dominance of stephanodiscus spp. in the main enrichment period, comprising up to 30% relative abundance of the diatom assemblage. in the northwest european training set these taxa occur in the greatest relative abundances in lakes with high tp concentrations and given that the data-set includes many waters with tp concentrations >40 ug l-1, this results in high tp optima, mostly in excess of 100 ug l-1 (bennion et al ., 1996). indeed the diatom model parallels the steeper rise in maximum soluble reactive p (srp) in esthwaite water more closely than the gradual increase in annual mean tp (bennion et al ., 2005).
What are unpredictable impacts?
some potentially important impacts (e.g., human health) are still relatively unpredictable
What will destroy trust and credibility?
definitive claims based on uncertain science are vulnerable to attack, potentially mislead the public, and can irrevocably destroy trust and credibility
What data communicators use?
to make these possible futures more "imaginable," communicators can use appropriate historical and geographic analogues
strategy 4: talk openly about remaining uncertainties. while communicators and educators should highlight those impacts that are scientifically more certain, some potentially important impacts (e.g., human health) are still relatively unpredictable. in the absence of certainty about particular impacts, what should communicators do? critically, they should never suggest more scientific certainty than actually exists. definitive claims based on uncertain science are vulnerable to attack, potentially mislead the public, and can irrevocably destroy trust and credibility. what communicators can do, however, is openly describe and discuss the known likelihood and severity of potential impacts and narrate scenarios that describe possible local and regional futures. to make these possible futures more "imaginable," communicators can use appropriate historical and geographic analogues. when there remains significant uncertainty about a specific impact, communicators should explain why the uncertainty exists, e.g., because the science hasn't been done yet or the systems involved are so 15 15
How is climate change mitigation a risk management exercise?
it may provide large opportunities to humankind, but will also be associated with risks and uncertainties. some of those may be of a fundamental nature and cannot be easily reduced or managed. it is therefore a basic requirement for a scientific assessment to communicate these uncertainties, wherever possible, both in their quantitative and qualitative dimension
Is it possible for climate policy to be purely scientifical?
facts are often inextricably interlinked with values and there is no purely scientific resolution of value dissent. what an assessment can do to support a rational public debate about value conflicts is to make implicit value judgments and ethical viewpoints as transparent as possible. moreover, controversial policy goals and related ethical standpoints should be discussed in the context of the required means to reach these goals, in particular their possible consequences and side-effects
How are decision makers prone to approach well-being?
decision makers may be interested in pursuing a broader concept of well-being. this broader concept also involves the sharing of limited resources within and across countries as well as across generations
exploration of alternative climate policy goals: the report lays out the technological, economic and institutional requirements for stabilizing global mean temperature increases at different levels. it informs decision makers about the costs and benefits, risks and opportunities of these, acknowledging the fact that often more than one path can lead to a given policy goal. transparency over value judgments: the decision which mitigation path to take is influenced by a series of sometimes disputed normative choices which relate to the long-term stabilization goal itself, the weighing of other social priorities and the policies for achieving the goal. facts are often inextricably interlinked with values and there is no purely scientific resolution of value dissent. what an assessment can do to support a rational public debate about value conflicts is to make implicit value judgments and ethical viewpoints as transparent as possible. moreover, controversial policy goals and related ethical standpoints should be discussed in the context of the required means to reach these goals, in particular their possible consequences and side-effects. the potential for adverse side-effects of mitigation actions therefore requires an iterative assessment approach. multiple objectives in the context of sustainable development and equity: a comprehensive exploration of the solution space in the field of climate change mitigation recognizes that mitigation itself will only be one objective among others for decision makers. decision makers may be interested in pursuing a broader concept of well-being. this broader concept also involves the sharing of limited resources within and across countries as well as across generations. climate change mitigation is discussed here as a multi-objective problem embedded in a broader sustainable development and equity context. risk management: climate change mitigation can be framed as a risk management exercise. it may provide large opportunities to humankind, but will also be associated with risks and uncertainties. some of those may be of a fundamental nature and cannot be easily reduced or managed. it is therefore a basic requirement for a scientific assessment to communicate these uncertainties, wherever possible, both in their quantitative and qualitative dimension.
what is the first paper structured of relevant literatures?
the paper is structured as follows. first, relevant literatures are reviewed - as discussed - to interrogate the key governance issues for accountants and climate change
what is the second paper of empirical section?
second, in the main empirical section of the paper we give a short history of the involvement of accountants with climate change ('stage one' - late 1990s to 2005) and then examine how and why accountancy professional organisations have more recently attempted to position themselves and the profession as well-placed to govern climate change ('stage two' - 2005 to present
what is the conclusion of accounting?
in conclusion, we comment on the likely future directions of the carbon accounting debate and its implications for policy and theory
the paper is structured as follows. first, relevant literatures are reviewed - as discussed - to interrogate the key governance issues for accountants and climate change. second, in the main empirical section of the paper we give a short history of the involvement of accountants with climate change ('stage one' - late 1990s to 2005) and then examine how and why accountancy professional organisations have more recently attempted to position themselves and the profession as well-placed to govern climate change ('stage two' - 2005 to present). in conclusion, we comment on the likely future directions of the carbon accounting debate and its implications for policy and theory.
What are the effects of updating the region's rainfall intensityduration-frequency (IDF) curves?
additional coordinated efforts may include updating the region's rainfall intensityduration-frequency (idf) curves to include possible effects of climate change on extreme rainfall
How DF curves related to CSO events?
these curves are instrumental to the design of adequate sewer infrastructure that minimizes the occurrence of cso events
What are the models assist in NYCDEP decision-making?
because forecasts of water quality and quantity from these nycdep models assist nycdep decision-making, incorporating climate change data can help to plan future policy, operations management, and investment decisions
additional coordinated efforts may include updating the region's rainfall intensityduration-frequency (idf) curves to include possible effects of climate change on extreme rainfall. these curves are instrumental to the design of adequate sewer infrastructure that minimizes the occurrence of cso events. preliminary work is also being conducted on how nycdep watershed models can be linked to regional climate scenarios. because forecasts of water quality and quantity from these nycdep models assist nycdep decision-making, incorporating climate change data can help to plan future policy, operations management, and investment decisions. in addition to the scenarios, several low-probability but high impact events are considered as a way of insuring that the possibility of surprises is factored into long-term adaptation planning. examples of these are the potential melting of the west antarctic and greenland ice sheets (see, e.g., overpeck et al. 2006 and the slowing or cessation of the north atlantic thermohaline circulation (peterson et al. 2002 ). while these events need to be considered within a timeframe of several centuries in contrast to the timeframe of the gcm scenarios of a single century, their impacts are far reaching and need to be
What does (IAMs) stands for?
integrated assessment models
What does (SCC) stands for?
social cost of carbon
What does the IAM-based analyses of climate policy create?
iam-based analyses of climate policy create a perception of knowledge and precision, but that perception is illusory and misleading. jel c51, q54, q58
very little. a plethora of integrated assessment models (iams) have been constructed and used to estimate the social cost of carbon (scc) and evaluate alternative abatement policies. these models have crucial flaws that make them close to useless as tools for policy analysis: certain inputs (e.g., the discount rate) are arbitrary, but have huge effects on the scc estimates the models produce; the models' descriptions of the impact of climate change are completely ad hoc, with no theoretical or empirical foundation; and the models can tell us nothing about the most important driver of the scc, the possibility of a catastrophic climate outcome. iam-based analyses of climate policy create a perception of knowledge and precision, but that perception is illusory and misleading. jel c51, q54, q58)
What is the first procedure to investigate the relationship between mitigation and adaptation ?
firstly, the model has been run to find the optimal path for abatement and adaptation investment
What is the second procedure to investigate the relationship between mitigation and adaptation ?
secondly, (in turn) one of the two control variables has been exogenously moved from its optimal level by a given percentage, the model has been re-run and the new level of the variable left free to vary has been computed
What is the third and final procedure to investigate the relationship between mitigation and adaptation ?
thirdly, its percentage variation respect to the previous simulation has been calculated. finally, the ratio between the percentage changes of mitigation and adaptation has been used as an indication of the elasticity of substitution between the two choices5. these values are reported in table 2
to further investigate the relationship between mitigation and adaptation, the model has been used to estimate numerically the "cross elasticity" of the two strategies. this has been done according to the following procedure. firstly, the model has been run to find the optimal path for abatement and adaptation investment. secondly, (in turn) one of the two control variables has been exogenously moved from its optimal level by a given percentage, the model has been re-run and the new level of the variable left free to vary has been computed. thirdly, its percentage variation respect to the previous simulation has been calculated. finally, the ratio between the percentage changes of mitigation and adaptation has been used as an indication of the elasticity of substitution between the two choices5. these values are reported in table 2.
Which countries experience a strong negative welfare effect through the ETS?
countries with a large divergence between allowance price and implicit tax in the non-ets sectors, such as austria, spain, and italy experience a strong negative welfare effect through the ets
Which of the two schemes or systems provides efficiency gains?
 whereas the emissions trading scheme provides efficiency gains, these are apparently netted out for many countries by the additional distortions imposed by the inefficient internal caps on the ets and non-ets-sectors
the welfare effects of the two scenarios illustrate the trade off between efficiency gains through trading and the intersectoral distortions within each country. whereas the emissions trading scheme provides efficiency gains, these are apparently netted out for many countries by the additional distortions imposed by the inefficient internal caps on the ets and non-ets-sectors. a comparison of figure 4 with figure 5 supports this. countries with a large divergence between allowance price and implicit tax in the non-ets sectors, such as austria, spain, and italy experience a strong negative welfare effect through the ets. on the opposite side, in france, greece and the uk, the ets-sectors are more restricted than the non-ets sectors, leading to negligible welfare effects.
What are the terms are presnted in chapter 4 ?
the city-disasters nexus presented in chapter 4 requires that planning for adaptation addresses all risk factors (i.e. hazards, vulnerability and deficiencies in response and recovery mechanisms) and takes into consideration the physical and non-physical features of the urban fabric (figure 2
What are the terms are presnted in chapter 3 ?
the theoretical understanding of risk, adaptation and mainstreaming presented in chapter 3
the theoretical understanding of risk, adaptation and mainstreaming presented in chapter 3 and the city-disasters nexus presented in chapter 4 requires that planning for adaptation addresses all risk factors (i.e. hazards, vulnerability and deficiencies in response and recovery mechanisms) and takes into consideration the physical and non-physical features of the urban fabric (figure 2). importantly, sustainable transformation of this kind can only be achieved if adaptation becomes an inherent part of urban planning practice, which requires the use of different mainstreaming strategies (figure 2; cf. chapter 3). however, the review of current measures and strategies for climate change adaptation presented in this chapter reveals a different picture.
What's happened in UK about climate change?
in the uk, climate change and energy have converged on the policy agenda
What do we suggest?
we suggest that such approaches struggle to account for the dynamics of change in conditions of policy convergence
Why do we draw on ideas about socio-technical regime transitions?
to explore first why the storylines are not in obvious conflict, and second to identify small-scale niches where tensions in storylines do emerge as discourse is translated into material reality
in the uk, climate change and energy have converged on the policy agenda. we discuss the implications for theories of policy change based on well-defined networks located within single, discrete policy domains. we suggest that such approaches struggle to account for the dynamics of change in conditions of policy convergence. the issue of climate change has opened up and destabilised the uk energy policy sector, but this process has been surprisingly free of conflict, despite radical policy shifts. to date, convergence of the energy and climate change sectors has largely occurred at a discursive level, and we focus our attention on a number of different, but largely complementary, storylines about solutions to climate change. we draw on ideas about socio-technical regime transitions to explore first why the storylines are not in obvious conflict, and second to identify small-scale niches where tensions in storylines do emerge as discourse is translated into material reality.
Why do Ethiopians believe that the changes in weater are affecting their lives?
erratic and insufficient rainfall, dwindling water sources, failed harvests and dying livestock
How does the 'God frame' impact public engagement and policy development with Ethiopians?
1) the impacts of a changing climate can be viewed as punishment for people's climateirrelevant actions, and (2) there is nothing one can do but cope
How does religious beliefs about climate change influence the perceptions and understandings in the United States?
how climate change is framed as a direct and severe threat to god's creation and to notions of social justice, that is, a violation of the dictum to 'love thy neighbor', and, in turn, acting on these threats is
regardless of people's awareness and understanding of climate change, ethiopians recognize that their weather is changing and that these changes (such as erratic and insufficient rainfall, dwindling water sources, failed harvests and dying livestock) are profoundly affecting their lives. they explain that the land simply cannot support them anymore. moreover, most ethiopians, regardless of their religion, feel that god alone has the power to change the weather. this 'god frame' leaves little if any room for human activity as a cause, and therefore for a role for humans in mitigating emissions. while such differing explanations of change need to be respected, they raise questions about whether and how to help prepare strongly belief-based societies for adaptation or convince them of 'green' development pathways. the pervasiveness of some version of the 'god frame' across cultures and time has important implications for public engagement and policy development: (1) the impacts of a changing climate can be viewed as punishment for people's climateirrelevant actions, and (2) there is nothing one can do but cope. in terms of mitigation (including lowcarbon development) and adaptation, this has serious implications for those countries where such beliefs are pervasive. questions of faith, it is important to note, are not only relevant in less-developed, less-westernized nations. even in highly developed nations like the united states, faith-based beliefs play an important role in problem understanding, raising concern, and motivating practical engagement.130,135-138most interesting for the purposes of understanding the relevance of religious beliefs for individuals' understandings, perceptions, and engagement here is that studies of religious discourses in the united states illustrate how climate change is framed as a direct and severe threat to god's creation and to notions of social justice, that is, a violation of the dictum to 'love thy neighbor', and, in turn, acting on these threats is
HOW T REDUCE CARBON FOOTPRINTS?
over one third (41%) of the sample respondents indicated that they reduced their use of 14 14 motorized vehicles while over two thirds (67%) stated that they reduced their use of electricity to reduce their carbon footprint. in total, over seventy percent of the sample respondents (n=456) reduced either their use of electricity or motorized vehicle or both. a multivariate probit regression model is estimated to identify the determining factors of individual decisions to reduce their carbon consumption
WHAT ARE THE CONCERNS FOR ENVIRONMENT WELLNESS?
the results are presented in table 2. the coefficients of the variables tv/news (respondents who watched television program on climate change and/or read newspaper article) and inctrth (respondents who watched 'an inconvenient truth') are positive and significant at the one and ten percent level. this implies that exposure to the mass media significantly influences people's desires to take action against climate change. these findings are consistent with theories of public perception literature which suggests that lay people gains most of their knowledge about science from the mass media (wilson 1995
WHAT ARE THE IMPACTS OF FILMS?
lowe et al. (2006) conducted a study to examine the impact of the film 'the day after tomorrow4'on public perception of climate change. they found that the film raised awareness of climate change and enhanced the motivation to act on climate change mitigation. nolan (2010) showed that watching 'an inconvenient truth' increased understanding of global warming, concern for the environment and willingness to reduce ghgs
over one third (41%) of the sample respondents indicated that they reduced their use of 14 14 motorized vehicles while over two thirds (67%) stated that they reduced their use of electricity to reduce their carbon footprint. in total, over seventy percent of the sample respondents (n=456) reduced either their use of electricity or motorized vehicle or both. a multivariate probit regression model is estimated to identify the determining factors of individual decisions to reduce their carbon consumption. the results are presented in table 2. the coefficients of the variables tv/news (respondents who watched television program on climate change and/or read newspaper article) and inctrth (respondents who watched 'an inconvenient truth') are positive and significant at the one and ten percent level. this implies that exposure to the mass media significantly influences people's desires to take action against climate change. these findings are consistent with theories of public perception literature which suggests that lay people gains most of their knowledge about science from the mass media (wilson 1995). lowe et al. (2006) conducted a study to examine the impact of the film 'the day after tomorrow4'on public perception of climate change. they found that the film raised awareness of climate change and enhanced the motivation to act on climate change mitigation. nolan (2010) showed that watching 'an inconvenient truth' increased understanding of global warming, concern for the environment and willingness to reduce ghgs.
What are aerosols?
the main predictable component of climate change in the future is that associated with human activities (ipcc, 2007). humans are changing the composition of the atmosphere by adding carbon dioxide and visible particulates, called aerosols mainly by burning fossil fuels
What are greenhouse gases?
other activities add methane and nitrous oxide, which along with carbon dioxide are greenhouse gases
Describe greenhouse gases?
the effect is of order 1% of the natural flow of energy through the climate system (karl and trenberth, 2003). changes in radiative forcing associated with increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere produce increased heating at the surface. the actual amount of heating depends critically on various feedbacks, including water vapor feedback
the main predictable component of climate change in the future is that associated with human activities (ipcc, 2007). humans are changing the composition of the atmosphere by adding carbon dioxide and visible particulates, called aerosols mainly by burning fossil fuels. other activities add methane and nitrous oxide, which along with carbon dioxide are greenhouse gases, so that they trap outgoing infrared radiation and warm the planet (ipcc, 2007). the effect is of order 1% of the natural flow of energy through the climate system (karl and trenberth, 2003). changes in radiative forcing associated with increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere produce increased heating at the surface. the actual amount of heating depends critically on various feedbacks, including water vapor feedback,
Where does the coupled atmosphere-ocean simulations in both hemispheres extend?
he coupled atmosphere-ocean simulations with the ncar csm for the late cretaceous exhibit large overturning cells in both hemispheres extending from the surface to the ocean bottom
Why does the sinking in Northern Hemisphere takes place?
n the northern hemisphere the sinking takes place in the pacific due to cooling of the much warmer and saltier waters compared to the present day
to summarize, the coupled atmosphere-ocean simulations with the ncar csm for the late cretaceous exhibit large overturning cells in both hemispheres extending from the surface to the ocean bottom and with intensity comparable to the present-day north atlantic simulated overturning. in the northern hemisphere the sinking takes place in the pacific due to cooling of the much warmer and saltier waters compared to the present day. in the southern hemisphere the sinking occurs primarily in the southern figure 6. global and annual average meridional overturning stream functions (sv) simulated by the csm. (a) present day. (b) cretaceous. contour interval is 5 sv. one sv equals 106m3s 1. light shading denotes negative stream function.
Climate change?
climate change is expected to advance grapevine phenological stages. after the calibration and the validation of a degree-days model, we were able to accurately simulate dates of budbreak, flowering and veraison for riesling and gewurztraminer, 2 winegrape varieties grown in alsace, france. projected daily temperatures were calculated for the local meteorological station with the arpege-climat general circulation model using 3 distinct greenhouse gas emissions scenarios
Explain genetic variation?
compared with its timing in 1976-2008, veraison is predicted to advance by up to 23 d and mean temperatures during the 35 d following veraison are projected to increase by more than 7degc by the end of the 21st century for both varieties. such changes will likely have a significant impact on grape and wine quality. using the same framework, the genetic variability of phenological parameters was explored with 120 genotypes of progeny from a riesling x gewurztraminer cross, along with 14 european varieties. in addition, we created a virtual late ripening genotype, derived from a cross between riesling and gewurztraminer
Future hot weather forecast?
even with this virtual genotype, or with muscat of alexandria, grapes would ripen by the middle of the 21st century under higher temperatures than in the present years. this study highlights the important changes that viticulture will likely face in a future warmer climate and emphasises the need to create very late ripening genotypes or genotypes able to produce high quality wines under elevated temperatures. key words: grapevine * climatic change * phenology * temperature * genetic variability
climate change is expected to advance grapevine phenological stages. after the calibration and the validation of a degree-days model, we were able to accurately simulate dates of budbreak, flowering and veraison for riesling and gewurztraminer, 2 winegrape varieties grown in alsace, france. projected daily temperatures were calculated for the local meteorological station with the arpege-climat general circulation model using 3 distinct greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. compared with its timing in 1976-2008, veraison is predicted to advance by up to 23 d and mean temperatures during the 35 d following veraison are projected to increase by more than 7degc by the end of the 21st century for both varieties. such changes will likely have a significant impact on grape and wine quality. using the same framework, the genetic variability of phenological parameters was explored with 120 genotypes of progeny from a riesling x gewurztraminer cross, along with 14 european varieties. in addition, we created a virtual late ripening genotype, derived from a cross between riesling and gewurztraminer. this modelled genotype was projected to undergo veraison 2 to 3 d before muscat of alexandria, one of the latest ripening varieties studied. even with this virtual genotype, or with muscat of alexandria, grapes would ripen by the middle of the 21st century under higher temperatures than in the present years. this study highlights the important changes that viticulture will likely face in a future warmer climate and emphasises the need to create very late ripening genotypes or genotypes able to produce high quality wines under elevated temperatures. key words: grapevine * climatic change * phenology * temperature * genetic variability
How are adaptions and mitigations linked according to the text above?
it is also becoming evident that adaptation and mitigation are interlinked in many ways; for instance, any substantial new mitigation commitments in the post-2012 climate regime may be politically feasible only if they are accompanied by stronger support for adaptation
How efforts were directed?
the efforts have been directed towards mitigation, the need to develop polices and funding mechanisms for adaptation to a changing climate is now widely acknowledged
Where around the world took place about the idea of climate changing?
rio de janeiro
policy makers around the world have--some 15 years after signing the unfccc in rio de janeiro--finally recognised the need to integrate thinking about climate change into all areas of public policy making. although most of the efforts have been directed towards mitigation, the need to develop polices and funding mechanisms for adaptation to a changing climate is now widely acknowledged. it is also becoming evident that adaptation and mitigation are interlinked in many ways; for instance, any substantial new mitigation commitments in the post-2012 climate regime may be politically feasible only if they are accompanied by stronger support for adaptation (burton et al. 2006).
How to understand the adaptation of animals to climate change?
understanding how animals will adapt to climate change requires understanding how climate variables influence their biology year round, and how events in different seasons interact
According to the article, why can migratory birds be vulnerable?
migratory birds may be especially vulnerable because of the wide range of geographic areas that they depend on throughout the annual cycle
What does the data show about animals and their arrival at servants?
we used data on spring arrival dates and number of fledglings per year, sampling many individuals across multiple years, to show that males arrive on breeding grounds later following drier winters
.--understanding how animals will adapt to climate change requires understanding how climate variables influence their biology year round, and how events in different seasons interact. migratory birds may be especially vulnerable because of the wide range of geographic areas that they depend on throughout the annual cycle. we examined the potential effects of non-breeding season climate change on the breeding biology of kirtland's warbler setophaga kirtlandii formerly dendroica kirtlandii ), an endangered songbird that breeds in the northern lower peninsula of michigan and winters in the bahamas. our objectives were to determine whether spring arrival dates on the breeding grounds correlate with late winter rainfall in non-breeding areas and whether this has consequences for reproductive success. we used data on spring arrival dates and number of fledglings per year, sampling many individuals across multiple years, to show that males arrive on breeding grounds later following drier winters. there was a strong male age rainfall interaction, which indicates that first-time breeders were much more sensitive to changes in rainfall than experienced adults. regardless of age, however, drier winters and delayed arrival and nest initiation were significantly associated with fewer offspring fledged. these results are important because the caribbean region is currently experiencing a significant drying trend, and climate change models predict that the severity of this drought will continue to increase. any resulting adjustments to the timing of migration could constrain spring arrival dates and limit reproductive success for the endangered kirtland's warbler, as well as other neotropical migrants wintering in the caribbean. received 6 january 2012, accepted 30 march 2012. key words: arrival dates, climate change, kirtland's warbler, migratory birds, reproductive success, setophaga kirtlandii winter rainfall.
Select the part of the paragraph, which answers this question best, and copy it to the textbox Answer.
let us briefly describe the game-theoretic model upon which our empirical analysis will be based (see carraro and siniscalco, 1997, or carraro and marchiori, 2001, for a detailed presentation). assume negotiations take place among n countries, n >= 3, each indexed by i 1, ..., n. countries play a two-stage game. in the first stage the coalition game they decide non-cooperatively whether or not to sign the agreement (i.e. to join the coalition). in the second stage, they play a non-cooperative open loop nash game to set their policy variables (emission abatement rate, investments, r&d expenditure). in the second stage
Select the part of the paragraph, which answers this question best, and copy it to the textbox Answer.
let us briefly describe the game-theoretic model upon which our empirical analysis will be based (see carraro and siniscalco, 1997, or carraro and marchiori, 2001, for a detailed presentation). assume negotiations take place among n countries, n >= 3, each indexed by i 1, ..., n. countries play a two-stage game. in the first stage the coalition game they decide non-cooperatively whether or not to sign the agreement (i.e. to join the coalition). in the second stage, they play a non-cooperative open loop nash game to set their policy variables (emission abatement rate, investments, r&d expenditure). in the second stage
let us briefly describe the game-theoretic model upon which our empirical analysis will be based (see carraro and siniscalco, 1997, or carraro and marchiori, 2001, for a detailed presentation). assume negotiations take place among n countries, n >= 3, each indexed by i 1, ..., n. countries play a two-stage game. in the first stage the coalition game they decide non-cooperatively whether or not to sign the agreement (i.e. to join the coalition). in the second stage, they play a non-cooperative open loop nash game to set their policy variables (emission abatement rate, investments, r&d expenditure). in the second stage,
Distinguish between early and late budget constraints?
early budget constraints restrict the financing of mitigation and proactive adaptation. in our model, those are budget constraints occurring before uncertainty is resolved. late budget constraints restrict the financing of reactive adaptation
What is the meaning of budget?
the lagrange multipliers measure how strongly each budget constraint is binding. interpreting equations (22)-(24) is straightforward
Explain budget? How will be use in global level?
those are budget constraints occurring after uncertainty is resolved. equations (22) states that with binding early national budget constraints and no transfers, marginal abatement costs cannot be equalized. it is easy to verify that allowing for international transfers would equalize marginal abatement costs across countries and increase efficiency. if in addition there is no budget constraint at the global level, then marginal costs and marginal benefits of adaptation can be equalized
the lagrange multipliers measure how strongly each budget constraint is binding. interpreting equations (22)-(24) is straightforward. to do so, it is useful to distinguish between early and late budget constraints. early budget constraints restrict the financing of mitigation and proactive adaptation. in our model, those are budget constraints occurring before uncertainty is resolved. late budget constraints restrict the financing of reactive adaptation. in our model, those are budget constraints occurring after uncertainty is resolved. equations (22) states that with binding early national budget constraints and no transfers, marginal abatement costs cannot be equalized. it is easy to verify that allowing for international transfers would equalize marginal abatement costs across countries and increase efficiency. if in addition there is no budget constraint at the global level, then marginal costs and marginal benefits of adaptation can be equalized.
Under which condition intermediate acids are used?
when a population of methanogenic microorganisms is present in a sufficient amount, and the environmental conditions inside the treatment system are favourable, they use the intermediate acids as quickly as they are formed
Describe when acids will get accumulated?
if the methanogenic organisms are not present in sufficient amount, or if they are exposed to unfavourable environmental conditions, they will not be capable of using the volatile acids at the same rate at which they are produced by the acidogenic bacteria, resulting in an accumulation of acids in the system
How we can identify the types of methanogenic microorganisms?
an identification of the individual acids present in a reactor with unbalanced bacterial populations can indicate which types of methanogenic microorganisms are not fulfilling their role in the treatment
when a population of methanogenic microorganisms is present in a sufficient amount, and the environmental conditions inside the treatment system are favourable, they use the intermediate acids as quickly as they are formed. consequently, the acids do not accumulate beyond the neutralising capacity of the alkalinity naturally present in the medium, the ph remains in a range favourable for the methanogenic organisms and the anaerobic system is balanced. however, if the methanogenic organisms are not present in sufficient amount, or if they are exposed to unfavourable environmental conditions, they will not be capable of using the volatile acids at the same rate at which they are produced by the acidogenic bacteria, resulting in an accumulation of acids in the system. in these conditions, the alkalinity is quickly consumed, and the non-neutralised free acids cause the ph to drop. when that occurs the reactor is referred to by operators as 'sour' (because of its odour). an identification of the individual acids present in a reactor with unbalanced bacterial populations can indicate which types of methanogenic microorganisms are not fulfilling their role in the treatment. principles of anaerobic digestion 669
what does the design of adaption intervention depend on
assumptions
why should assumptions be tracked
provides intervention managers with the basis for determining whether the original strategy behind an intervention continues to apply over time
what affects the vulnerability of a population
critical assumptions about factors that affect results helps them manage the many uncertainties associated with climate change and the diversity of factors that affect the vulnerability of target populations
assumptions matter under uncertainty the design of every adaptation intervention will hinge upon assumptions about how several factors (e.g. climatic, economic, and policy factors) may affect the outcomes of the intervention. making assumptions explicit and tracking how they change throughout implementation allow a more comprehensive picture of what has worked toward or against reaching desired results. assumptions also reflect values and underscore why particular actions are chosen over others. tracking assumptions before and during implementation provides intervention managers with the basis for determining whether the original strategy behind an intervention continues to apply over time. noting critical assumptions about factors that affect results helps them manage the many uncertainties associated with climate change and the diversity of factors that affect the vulnerability of target populations. identifying and tracking assumptions can also be a powerful method for practitioners to
What will intensify the adverse conditions of crop production in the drylands?
climate change will intensify the already adverse conditions of crop production in the drylands
What will be achieved by africa in climate change?
thus this study analyses how a resilient adaptation of smallholder agriculture to climate change in africa can be achieved
What will be the aims of SSA?
it also aims to develop an analytical tool that can be used to assess the resilience of ssa agriculture to climate change
climate change will intensify the already adverse conditions of crop production in the drylands. considering the socio-economic and political contexts of climate change in sub-saharan africa, a central argument is that adaptations to climate change need to be resilient, that is, to have the ability to deal with stresses and disturbances as a result of change, while retaining the same basic structure and ways of functioning, the capacity for self-organisation, and the capacity to learn and adapt to change. thus this study analyses how a resilient adaptation of smallholder agriculture to climate change in africa can be achieved. it also aims to develop an analytical tool that can be used to assess the resilience of ssa agriculture to climate change. based on the findings it identifies ways through which adaptation can be promoted and made more resilient at policy, institutional and smallholder levels. to achieve these objectives, literature was analysed and concepts for analysing adaptation to climate change elaborated. considering the subject and context, resilience is a superior but complementary concept to vulnerability and adaptation as it explicitly addresses the ability to deal with change, whether adverse or beneficial. based on this understanding, a tool, the resilience-check was developed. using the developed resilience-check, various farmer practices as well as policy and institutional instruments and services were analysed for their contributions to a resilient adaptation to climate change in smallholder agriculture. smallholder farmers (or small-scale farmers), that is, those operating a farm of 2 hectares or less were chosen as the focus of analysis. they constitute the majority of the rural poor, practice rain-fed agriculture, and account for most food production in ssa. they are also among the worst hit by climate change due to their dependency on rain-fed agriculture. agriculture and development in sub-saharan africa this study departed with an analysis of ssa agriculture, and examined how climate change impacts on it. the analysis of ssa agriculture showed that many non-climate factors determine the success and failure of smallholder agriculture. climate change will overlay and interact with these
during which years a correlation was noted   of coupling between dynamics and ozone reduction?
in addition, there is a clear trend toward later fi nal warming dates over the 22 years between 1979 and 2001 (waugh et al. 1999; waugh and rong, 2002) in the sh which is related to coupling between dynamics and ozone depletion and therefore should be captured by the ccms
by what method are the final heating dates calculated in both NH and SH?
final warming dates in both the nh and sh are calculated using the method of black and mcdaniel (2007a, b) and 5-day low-pass fi ltered zonal-mean zonal wind data at 50 hpa from the models and reanalysis. this method
the timing of the fi nal warming (the date at which the winter-time polar vortex breaks down and is replaced by the summer-time stratospheric westward circulation (andrews et al. 1987)) is an important diagnostic related both to the climatological vortex breakdown shown in figure 4.2 and the study of stratospheric variability in section 4.4.3. studies by black and mcdaniel (2007a, b) and black et al. (2006) have shown that there is an important dynamical link between the stratosphere and troposphere as the fi nal warming takes place and that the timing of the fi nal warming is highly variable from year to year. in addition, there is a clear trend toward later fi nal warming dates over the 22 years between 1979 and 2001 (waugh et al. 1999; waugh and rong, 2002) in the sh which is related to coupling between dynamics and ozone depletion and therefore should be captured by the ccms. final warming dates in both the nh and sh are calculated using the method of black and mcdaniel (2007a, b) and 5-day low-pass fi ltered zonal-mean zonal wind data at 50 hpa from the models and reanalysis. this method
what is A key question in the climate change literature
a key question in the climate change literature is as follows: how does the earth's global temperature depend on the concentration of co2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere
what is the  climate sensitivity?
the climate sensitivity is defined as the equilibrium temperature increase because of a doubling of co2 concentration in the atmosphere
how does CO2 affect the global temperature?
co2 is only one of the several external factors, or radiative forcing mechanisms (forster et al. 2007), that affect the global temperature. radiative forcing is composed of the effect of several components, including the concentration of greenhouse gases, aerosols, variations in solar radiation and particles from volcanic eruptions
a key question in the climate change literature is as follows: how does the earth's global temperature depend on the concentration of co2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere? this dependency is often quantified by the climate sensitivity, which includes the climate feedbacks in the earth atmosphere system. the climate sensitivity is defined as the equilibrium temperature increase because of a doubling of co2 concentration in the atmosphere. however, co2 is only one of the several external factors, or radiative forcing mechanisms (forster et al. 2007), that affect the global temperature. radiative forcing is composed of the effect of several components, including the concentration of greenhouse gases, aerosols, variations in solar radiation and particles from volcanic eruptions. the global temperature depends on the radiative forcing, and the climate sensitivity is a measure of the strength of this dependency. the dependency between global temperature and radiative forcing is highly complex and is yet not fully understood (knutti and hegerl, 2008; roe and baker, 2007; stainforth et al. 2005). the most detailed and complex climate models, the so called atmospheric ocean general circulation models (aogcms), involve thousands of parameters and are highly computer intensive. therefore, both from a statistical and a computational point of view, simpler climate models are needed to complement the aogcms. climate models of medium complexity are simpler but rather complex. another alternative is to use an approximation to the complex or medium complex model, a so-called emulator, where the climate model is approximated by a gaussian process (e.g. sanso and forest, 2009; drignei et al. 2008), and finally, there are the so-called simple climate models, which are based on elementary physical laws such as energy balance but have a limited number of parameters and only take a few seconds to run (for one set of input values).
Who spoke of " risk perceived is risk acted upon." and which year?
j. adams, 1995
Which country has a large autonomy over regional matters?
canada is endowed with a federal system of government, in which provinces enjoy a large degree of autonomy for matters of regional relevance
What did T. O'Riordan say about policy networks?
the concept of policy networks is based on the observation that policymaking tends to be fragmented into specific issue areas and that most issues are dealt with by a few actors within small groups of participants from governmental and nongovernmental agencies ). it describes the close and consensual nature of policymaking and the often blurred relationship 'between the governors and the governed' through channels that are often informal and, almost always, extra-constitutional
"the concept of policy networks is based on the observation that policymaking tends to be fragmented into specific issue areas and that most issues are dealt with by a few actors within small groups of participants from governmental and nongovernmental agencies ). it describes the close and consensual nature of policymaking and the often blurred relationship 'between the governors and the governed' through channels that are often informal and, almost always, extra-constitutional." (t. o'riordan et al., 1998) " risk perceived is risk acted upon." (j. adams, 1995) 1. this case-study deals with local institutional1adaptation to climate change of waterrelatedinfrastructuresintheeasternontarioregion(approximately5,000km2inthe great-lakes basin, at the confluence of the st. lawrence and the ottawa river in the province of ontario, canada and in the vicinity of ottawa gatineau, a metropolitan centre of about one million inhabitants; see figure 1). canada is endowed with a federal system of government, in which provinces enjoy a large degree of autonomy for matters of regional relevance. this means that environment is often an area of
What are the causes of imbalances of species distribution in Europe?
such imbalances as a consequence of slow post-glacial spread from ice age refuges
Where did the paragraph information come from?
araujo pearson 2005; giesecke et al 2007
Is the knowledge on this matter settled?
our current understanding of such phenomena in the tropics remains tantalisingly uncertain
for instance, some part of the rain forest species pool may not have had enough time since these events to reach all the areas that are forested today, yielding a dispersal limitation gradient from the forest refugia to those areas that were covered in savanna. the correlations of tree a -diversity with the climatic variables and altitude we describe here for the african data set might therefore reflect a greater degree of departure of species distributions from equilibrium with current climate than pertains in amazonia. such imbalances as a consequence of slow post-glacial spread from ice age refuges are well described in europe (e.g. araujo pearson 2005; giesecke et al 2007), but our current understanding of such phenomena in the tropics remains tantalisingly uncertain.
What is the definition of scenario?
a scenario can be defined as "...a coherent, internally consistent and plausible description of a possible future state of the world
How does a scenario represent?
a scenario represents one of any number of possible futures, which can be used to provide data for vulnerability, impacts and adaptation studies; to scope the range of plausible futures; to guide and explore the implications of adaptation and mitigation decisions; and to raise awareness of climate change issues
What do scenarios provide?
they provide a range of possible futures that allow consideration of the uncertainty relating to the different pathways that exist for future social, economic and environmental change
scenarios are used to determine how conditions may change in the future. a scenario can be defined as "...a coherent, internally consistent and plausible description of a possible future state of the world."(33)it is important to note that a scenario is not a prediction of the future, since use of the term "prediction" or "forecast" implies that a particular outcome is most likely to occur. rather, a scenario represents one of any number of possible futures, which can be used to provide data for vulnerability, impacts and adaptation studies; to scope the range of plausible futures; to guide and explore the implications of adaptation and mitigation decisions; and to raise awareness of climate change issues. they provide a range of possible futures that allow consideration of the uncertainty relating to the different pathways that exist for future social, economic and environmental change. leadership regarding the construction of climate scenarios is provided by the ipcc task group on scenarios for climate impact assessment (ipcctgcia). much of the material presented here is based on the ipcc-tgcia general guidelines on the use of scenario data for climate impact and adaptation assessment,(34)as well as on the chapter of the ipcc's third assessment report that examines scenario development.(35)
Why can we pragmatically exploit the assimilation capacity of the rivers?
it can be considered that the capacity of a water body to assimilate discharges, without presenting environmental problems, is a natural resource that can be exploited
In developing countries, what justifies the use of the water course to complement the processes that occur in sewage treatment?
the lack of financial resources
What provisions should be applied when using the water course to complement, up to a certain point, the processes that occur in sewage treatment?
provided this is done with parsimony and with well-defined and safe technical criteria
to use the assimilation capacity of the rivers from a strictly ecological point of view, it could be argued that ecosystems should remain unaltered. however, from a pragmatic perspective, it can be considered that the capacity of a water body to assimilate discharges, without presenting environmental problems, is a natural resource that can be exploited. this realistic vision is of great importance in developing countries where the lack of financial resources justifies the use of the water course to complement, up to a certain point, the processes that occur in sewage treatment (provided this is done with parsimony and with well-defined and safe technical criteria).
in which decade Nicol pesquisou fÃ­sica de edifÃ­cios e conforto tÃ©rmico humano ?
in the 1960s and early 1970s
what is the name of the school that Fergus Nicol taught?
schools of architecture at the university of science and technology in kumasi ghana and the architectural association in london
in the 1960s and early 1970s fergus nicol researched building physics and human thermal comfort at the building research establishment and the human physiology unit of the medical research council. he also taught in the schools of architecture at the university of science and technology in kumasi ghana and the architectural association in london. after a period managing a bookshop he returned to teaching and research in 1992. fergus is best known for his work in the science of human thermal comfort, where he has developed, with professor michael humphreys, the ' adaptive ' approach to thermal comfort. he has run a number of projects over the last 15 years funded by the epsrc and other funding agencies and a major eu project, smart controls and thermal comfort (scats). he is a professor at london metropolitan university, where he is deputy director of the low energy architecture research unit (learn). he is an affiliated professor at heriot watt university and emeritus professor at oxford brookes university. fergus is a member of uk and european consultative committees on comfort issues. he is helping cibse to write the new edition of their guide a and is an active member of their more free ebooks http://fast-file.blogspot.com overheating task force. he was responsible for the international conference air conditioning and the low-carbon cooling challenge in windsor, uk, in july 2008, attended by many international experts in thermal comfort and thermal comfort standards. he is convenor of the network for comfort and energy use in buildings, which boasts nearly 300 members from all over the world and in a wide variety of academic disciplines, consultancies and government bodies.
How State and federal policies be interact?
state and federal policies can interact along other dimensions, which may lead to positive outcomes
To whom First, strategic interactions arise?
first, strategic interactions can arise between states and the federal government
What is the result of the approach?
approaches that prove successful on cost effectiveness or other dimensions could later be adopted at the federal level
state and federal policies can interact along other dimensions, which may lead to positive outcomes. first, strategic interactions can arise between states and the federal government. in particular, state efforts can create pressure for more stringent federal policy. there is, in fact, a considerable history of california air standards having precisely this effect on federal policy developments, because industry is reluctant to face different standards in different parts of the country. for example, the california-led state-level tightening of greenhouse-gas-per mile standards helped bring about the subsequent tightening of federal cafe standards.5 of course, such triggering of stronger federal policy is desirable only if the previous federal policy was insufficiently stringent. second, states can serve as laboratories for experimenting with innovative policy approaches. approaches that prove successful on cost effectiveness or other dimensions could later be adopted at the federal level. the interaction here is one of information transfer. the case for state-level experimentation needs to be considered carefully: why the laboratories should be at the state, rather than national, level is not clear, and--in any event--there is some question regarding whether state authorities will allow their "laboratory" to be closed after the experiment has been completed and the information delivered.
what does the sage-4 data set represents?
he sage-4 l data set represents the state of the art for a long-term stratospheric aerosol data set for chemistry-climate models and is currently going through further re fi nement to support the coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (cmip6
state some example?
for example, cmip experiments simulating the historical (1850-present) and millennium (1000 - 2000 common era) periods have used reconstructions of stratospheric aerosol
which is dominated by volcanic eruptions?
since the variability of stratospheric aerosol is dominated by volcanic eruptions, most analysis of stratospheric aerosol has focused on the volcanic impact
kremser et al. stratospheric aerosol 315 particularly in the utls (e.g., see section 3). despite these limitations, the sage-4 l data set represents the state of the art for a long-term stratospheric aerosol data set for chemistry-climate models and is currently going through further re fi nement to support the coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (cmip6) activity. 6.2. climate impact of stratospheric aerosol 6.2.1. climate modeling with prescribed stratospheric aerosol forcing climate model simulations of the earth ' s past typically include radiative forcing from stratospheric aerosol, based on direct observations or deduced from proxies (section 6.1.1). for example, cmip experiments simulating the historical (1850-present) and millennium (1000 - 2000 common era) periods have used reconstructions of stratospheric aerosol. since the variability of stratospheric aerosol is dominated by volcanic eruptions, most analysis of stratospheric aerosol has focused on the volcanic impact. an increasing number of model studies have been published, which not only accounted for the volcanic impact on temperature and
How to derive  maximum summer temperature?
great basin, respectively, by selecting all areas that were cooler (higher) than their empirically derived maximum summer temperature
Define thermal limits in (Huff et al.2005)?
however, thermal limits for trout can vary across a region (huff et al. 2005
What are the factors to increase minimum elevation ?
geography, agricultural and developed land use, and past disturbance operate to increase minimum elevation for trout habitat in any particular stream, and factors such as stocking or hypolimnetic release of water from reservoirs may counteract zoogeography to decrease minimum elevation for trout
great basin, respectively, by selecting all areas that were cooler (higher) than their empirically derived maximum summer temperature. however, thermal limits for trout can vary across a region (huff et al. 2005). our approach also differed from that of clark et al. (2001), who either extrapolated individual-based models of trout to all streams in 101 watershed elevation zones or simply noted whether suitable temperatures existed in these zones. for this study, we lacked surface water temperature data that corresponded to trout survey samples at the lower elevation boundary. furthermore, we did not know whether trout were limited by maximum summer temperature or some other aspect of temperature. we used current trout habitat, described above, and model elevation as a function of latitude at the lower distributional boundary (i.e., a boundary model). we assumed that this distribution boundary for trout in the southern appalachians, at the southern range limit of trout, is largely determined by temperature, which is a function of elevation and latitude in mountain areas (meisner 1990; isaak and hubert 2001). previous models of trout distribution in the southern appalachians based on minimum elevation at latitude have been fitted visually (meisner 1990), but less subjective methods are now available. other factors affect the lower elevation boundary of this trout distribution. some factors, such as relief, aspect, gradient, land cover, and riparian vegetation, may modify stream temperature in a particular stream (brown and krygier 1970; swift and messer 1971; isaak and hubert 2001). other factors, such as instream habitat and interspecific interactions, may eliminate trout from portions of streams that are otherwise thermally suitable. geography, agricultural and developed land use, and past disturbance operate to increase minimum elevation for trout habitat in any particular stream, and factors such as stocking or hypolimnetic release of water from reservoirs may counteract zoogeography to decrease minimum elevation for trout
Why were the penguin harvested for?
several species of penguin were harvested for oil, skin, and feathers and as bait in commercial fisheries across numerous sites
when did the use of penguins generally decline ?
the use of penguins generally declined alongside the decline of other species (seals and whales) targeted throughout much of the 18th, 19th, and early 20th centuries
what is the history of egging ?
egging was common practice for northern rockhopper, yellow-eyed, african, magellanic spheniscus magellanicus ), and humboldt penguins in temperate and mid-latitude areas
harvest for oil, skin, and feathers and as bait in the past, several species of penguin were harvested for oil, skin, and feathers and as bait in commercial fisheries across numerous sites, particularly where they were abundant, generally leading to population declines, sometimes to a very great extent. however, the use of penguins generally declined alongside the decline of other species (seals and whales) targeted throughout much of the 18th, 19th, and early 20th centuries. such practices are now rare, either because penguin harvesting became uneconomical or because more enlightened management practices prevailed. egging historically, egging was common practice for northern rockhopper, yellow-eyed, african, magellanic spheniscus magellanicus ), and humboldt penguins in temperate and mid-latitude areas. the effects of egging on these populations may have been substantial and sufficient to cause large population decreases in some species (e.g., shannon crawford 1999); however, in general, the impacts remain unquantified (e.g., bonner 1984). in the antarctic and sub-antarctic, eggs of the 3 brushtailed penguin species were harvested by sealers and whalers until well into the 1950s (bonner 1984). egging in northern gentoo penguin pygoscelis papua populations continues today with legally and strictly controlled collections in the falkland islands (malvinas) (clausen p"utz 2002). egging may be considered an outdated practice, particularly if not closely supervised and especially where there are no robust analyses of local population size and trend to quantify a sustainable harvest. the impacts of disturbance associated with modern egging practices also remain unknown, but they may be considerable.
What is the definition of a "very hot day"?
very hot days are defined as those on which the daily high temperature exceeds a threshold value specific to each of the five u.s. cities shown
What are the negative impacts of an increase in the number of very hot days?
these and other u.s. cities are projected to see an increase in the number of very hot days over the rest of this century under both scenarios, affecting people, infrastructure, green spaces, and the economy. increased air conditioning and energy demands raise utility bills and can lead to power outages and blackouts. hot days can degrade air and water quality, which in turn can harm human health and decrease quality of life
What was the time period for the temperature threasholds historical values shown?
modeled historical values are shown for the same temperature thresholds, for the period 1976-2005
projected increases in the number of very hot days (compared to the 1976-2005 average) are shown for each of five u.s. cities under lower (rcp4.5) and higher (rcp8.5) scenarios. here, very hot days are defined as those on which the daily high temperature exceeds a threshold value specific to each of the five u.s. cities shown. dots represent the modeled median (50th percentile) values, and the vertical bars show the range of values (5th to 95th percentile) from the models used in the analysis. modeled historical values are shown for the same temperature thresholds, for the period 1976-2005, in the lower left corner of the figure. these and other u.s. cities are projected to see an increase in the number of very hot days over the rest of this century under both scenarios, affecting people, infrastructure, green spaces, and the economy. increased air conditioning and energy demands raise utility bills and can lead to power outages and blackouts. hot days can degrade air and water quality, which in turn can harm human health and decrease quality of life. from figure 11.2 (sources: noaa ncei, cics-nc, and lmi)
How to calculate the infinite population?give the formula?
x)= p1+ p2-( p1p2)2 it requires the assumption of a simple random sample of an infinite population
How to represent the indifferent responses?
2 1 3 ^ ^ 1 ^ p p p - - is the proportion estimated of the indifferent responses
Which one represent the p1 symmbol?
p1 indicates the proportion of individuals that responded with positive expectations
(x)= p1+ p2-( p1p2)2 it requires the assumption of a simple random sample of an infinite population, where p1 indicates the proportion of individuals that responded with positive expectations and p2 the proportion of individuals who responded with negative expectations. if 1^ p is the proportion estimated for the sample of businesses that gave optimistic responses, 2^ p is the proportion estimated for the sample of businesses that gave pessimistic responses, 1 ^ ^ ^2 th p p - is the estimation of the index, and 2 1 3 ^ ^ 1 ^ p p p - - is the proportion estimated of the indifferent responses, then the standard error of the index is:
What three things were there no significant departures in during years prior to regional-fire years?
there were no significant departures in temperature (spring or summer), precipitation (prior winter or summer), or nin~ o-3.4 during years prior to regional-fire years
What period of time was characterized by generally cool springs, generally negative PDO, and a lack of extremely dry summers?
the mid-20th-century period lacking regional-fire years (1935-1987) was characterized by generally cool springs, generally negative pdo, and a lack of extremely dry summers
What was most of the area recorded as burned during the 20th century?
most of the area recorded as burned during the 20th century was in the cold and dry forests
(fig. 5). there were no significant departures in temperature (spring or summer), precipitation (prior winter or summer), or nin~ o-3.4 during years prior to regional-fire years. non-regional-fire years, those with fire extents below the 90th percentile, occurred under any combination of spring and summer climate and a variety of enso and pdo phase combinations (fig. 5). the mid-20th-century period lacking regional-fire years (1935-1987) was characterized by generally cool springs, generally negative pdo, and a lack of extremely dry summers (fig. 3). climate results were similar for each of the three forest types (not shown). vegetation types and regional-fire years most of the area recorded as burned during the 20th century was in the cold and dry forests (67 fig. 6).
Any efforts to improve the rules of emissions trading, or to curb its use, will be subject to what?
any efforts to improve the rules of emissions trading, or to curb its use, will be subject to the general forces of liberalization
What do industry lobby groups and neo-liberal think-tanks want from the WTO?
industry lobby groups and neo-liberal think-tanks want world trade organization (wto) compliance across the board, with no exceptions made for other purposes or values
What do many corporate lobby groups want in relation to trade?
many corporate lobby groups, in particular, want unrestricted free trade in greenhouse gas credits rather than government regulation and taxation to achieve emissions reductions
proponents of emissions trading argue that as schemes are implemented the rules governing them can be tightened and improved, and fraud avoided. this view is at best nai"ve and at worst, dishonest. as emissions trading emerges as the principal component of government climate change policy, the rules for its use will have to conform to the general rules governing trade. any efforts to improve the rules of emissions trading, or to curb its use, will be subject to the general forces of liberalization. industry lobby groups and neo-liberal think-tanks want world trade organization (wto) compliance across the board, with no exceptions made for other purposes or values. many corporate lobby groups, in particular, want unrestricted free trade in greenhouse gas credits rather than government regulation and taxation to achieve emissions reductions.26since the rules for the kyoto mechanisms are still being developed, and the wto's committee on trade and environment (the principal
Which region is warming in the summer
there is a region of warming over india in the summer
Which also cools the ocean
the aerosol cloud also covers the tropics it also cools the ocean
Is Northern Hemisphere have winter warming ?
the northern hemisphere winter pattern for the tropical 5 mt/a case (figure 6, bottom) shows little evidence of winter warming
(figure 6, right), there is global cooling, particularly over the continents, as expected. even in absolute terms as compared to the control case (figure 6, left), there is cooling. but even in this case, there is a region of warming over india in the summer, for the same reasons as discussed above. in the tropical 5 mt/a case there is more cooling over the asian continent than in the arctic 3 mt/a case (figure 5), but because the aerosol cloud also covers the tropics it also cools the ocean. therefore, the effect on the temperature gradient is not as large and there is not as large an impact on the summer monsoon. the northern hemisphere winter pattern for the tropical 5 mt/a case (figure 6, bottom) shows little evidence of winter warming, which is found in the first, and somefigure 6. for the tropical 5 mt/a runs, (top) annual average, (middle) northern hemisphere summer, and (bottom) northern hemisphere winter surface air temperature differences (left) from the control climate and (right) from the a1b runs, averaged for the second 10 years of the 20-year geoengineering period.
What is the strategy for tailoring the choice and use of model outputs to maximize their credibility and utility in the assessment?
the strategy rests on using the insights from a vulnerability analysis to inform the selection and processing of the climate model information--to tailor the choice and use of model outputs to maximize their credibility and utility in the assessment
What are the three lake levels 'coping zones' for meeting use goals and limiting impacts in areas such as ecosystems, hydropower, shipping, water systems, coastal systems, and recreation and tourism?
define three 'coping zones'--i.e., lake levels that were deemed a (acceptable), b (significant negative impacts but survivable), or c (intolerable without policy changes)--for meeting use goals and limiting impacts in areas such as ecosystems, hydropower, shipping, water systems, coastal systems, and recreation and tourism
What serves as the quantitative link between the coping zones and the tailoring of climate information?
the complementary concept of a climate response function serves as the quantitative link between the coping zones and this tailoring of climate information
the strategy rests on using the insights from a vulnerability analysis to inform the selection and processing of the climate model information--to tailor the choice and use of model outputs to maximize their credibility and utility in the assessment. two key elements of the ds decision-analytic process in this example make possible this linking of the bottom-up and top-down information sources: (1) holding a series of technical meetings with stakeholder experts to define three 'coping zones'--i.e., lake levels that were deemed a (acceptable), b (significant negative impacts but survivable), or c (intolerable without policy changes)--for meeting use goals and limiting impacts in areas such as ecosystems, hydropower, shipping, water systems, coastal systems, and recreation and tourism (2) developing a set of 'climate response functions' that relate the occurrence of climate-driven changes in net basin supplies (i.e., the sum of precipitation, runoff, releases, inflows and diversions, and evaporation) to the consequences for and of a particular lake management decision the coping zones provide the bottom-up context for identifying the regional climate states that would tip the lake system into a new regime--i.e., over the thresholds from acceptable to survivable to intolerable. the process of defining these coping zones for each sector systematizes the participation of stakeholders in the analysis. it also subsequently allows the analysis team to ask tailored questions of the climate models and, in the context of this climate information, evaluate plan performance in a comparable way across impact sectors. the complementary concept of a climate response function serves as the quantitative link between the coping zones and this tailoring of climate information. given the identification of climate conditions that are critical to a decision, processing of information about future climate change derived from models can be focused on those key aspects, as opposed to beginning with a pre-determined set of scenarios as input to the analysis. for example, the choice of climate models, spatial and temporal scale, and associated process models need only be made after the specific information needed for a particular decision context is identified. this choice can then be made strategically to improve the relevance of the climate information in the decision process. the climate response function concept in ds is very similar to the concept of 'scenario neutral' analysis, developed for assessing flood risk in the uk,144 where sensitivity analyses of watershed responses to climate in a river flow model were used to construct a response surface that was then used to answer questions about policy vulnerabilities in the face of uncertain future climate change: e.g., what fraction of members of a given ensemble of climate scenarios would be accommodated by a given design safety margin? as with the rdm cases already discussed, ds increases the credibility and salience of the climate model information for use in the decision process by changing the requirements for the information. for lake superior, the synthesis of stakeholderand system-specific decision information in coping zones and climate response functions then facilitates precise evaluation of the decision options with respect to any set of climate futures:
Describe the climate changes in marine environment?
in the marine environment, climatic changes are asymmetrically altering the phenologies of species at different trophic levels, causing an increase in the severity of mismatching between predators and their prey
Explain about Triangle Island ?
at triangle island (british columbia, canada), the zooplanktivorous seabird cassin's auklet ptychoramphus aleuticus breeds less successfully in warm-water years than in coldwater years. 
What does the study adds?
this study adds to a growing body of evidence showing that climate-driven phenological mismatches can alter critical trophic interactions, with potentially deleterious demographic consequences for predators
in the marine environment, climatic changes are asymmetrically altering the phenologies of species at different trophic levels, causing an increase in the severity of mismatching between predators and their prey. at triangle island (british columbia, canada), the zooplanktivorous seabird cassin's auklet ptychoramphus aleuticus breeds less successfully in warm-water years than in coldwater years. previous researchers hypothesized that this occurred because, in warm years, there is less temporal overlap between the auklets' nestling-provisioning period and the period when the copepod neocalanus cristatus an important prey item, is available to the birds in near-surface waters. i tested this hypothesis with data collected between 1996 and 2006. as predicted by the match-mismatch hypothesis, the copepods became scarce in nestling diets 2 to 3 wk earlier in warmer than in colder years, and were less prevalent overall in warm years. the auklets' offspring were more likely to survive from hatching to fledging, and were heavier in mass at fledging, in years in which their diets were richer in n. cristatus information-theoretic approaches indicated that this effect of diet, a direct consequence of spring ocean temperature, outweighed other indirect influences of ocean temperature on offspring performance. comparison with independent data on the timing and magnitude of local annual zooplankton biomass peaks indicated that prey timing, rather than prey abundance, was the key factor determining seasonal prevalence of the copepod in nestling diets. this study adds to a growing body of evidence showing that climate-driven phenological mismatches can alter critical trophic interactions, with potentially deleterious demographic consequences for predators. key words: match-mismatch * ocean climate * auklet * copepod
What were the two previous weather events about?
the two earlier antarctic abrupt climate change events appear linked to but predate by several centuries even more abrupt climate change in the north atlantic, and the end of the more recent event is coincident with reorganization of atmospheric circulation in the north pacific. improved understanding of such events and of the associations between abrupt climate change events recorded in both hemispheres is critical to predicting the impact and timing of future abrupt climate change events potentially forced by anthropogenic changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols
What happens to the atmospheric temperatures in the Antarctic Peninsula?
atmospheric temperatures have increased markedly over the antarctic peninsula, linked to nearby ocean warming and intensification of the circumpolar westerlies. glaciers are retreating on the peninsula, in patagonia, on the subantarctic islands, and in west antarctica adjacent to the peninsula. the penetration of marine air masses has become more pronounced over parts of west antarctica. above the surface, the antarctic troposphere has warmed during winter while the stratosphere has cooled yearround
this paper reviews developments in our understanding of the state of the antarctic and southern ocean climate and its relation to the global climate system over the last few millennia. climate over this and earlier periods has not been stable, as evidenced by the occurrence of abrupt changes in atmospheric circulation and temperature recorded in antarctic ice core proxies for past climate. two of the most prominent abrupt climate change events are characterized by intensification of the circumpolar westerlies (also known as the southern annular mode) between  6000 and 5000 years ago and since 1200-1000 years ago. following the last of these is a period of major trans-antarctic reorganization of atmospheric circulation and temperature between a.d. 1700 and 1850. the two earlier antarctic abrupt climate change events appear linked to but predate by several centuries even more abrupt climate change in the north atlantic, and the end of the more recent event is coincident with reorganization of atmospheric circulation in the north pacific. improved understanding of such events and of the associations between abrupt climate change events recorded in both hemispheres is critical to predicting the impact and timing of future abrupt climate change events potentially forced by anthropogenic changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols. special attention is given to the climate of the past 200 years, which was recorded by a network of recently available shallow firn cores, and to that of the past 50 years, which was monitored by the continuous instrumental record. significant regional climate changes have taken place in the antarctic during the past 50 years. atmospheric temperatures have increased markedly over the antarctic peninsula, linked to nearby ocean warming and intensification of the circumpolar westerlies. glaciers are retreating on the peninsula, in patagonia, on the subantarctic islands, and in west antarctica adjacent to the peninsula. the penetration of marine air masses has become more pronounced over parts of west antarctica. above the surface, the antarctic troposphere has warmed during winter while the stratosphere has cooled yearround. the upper kilometer of the circumpolar southern ocean has warmed, antarctic bottom water across a wide sector off east antarctica has freshened, and the densest bottom water in the weddell sea has warmed. in contrast to these regional climate changes, over most of antarctica, near-surface temperature and snowfall have not increased significantly during at least the past 50 years, and proxy data suggest that the atmospheric circulation over the interior has remained in a similar state for at least the past 200 years. furthermore, the total sea ice cover around antarctica has exhibited no significant overall change since reliable satellite monitoring began in the late 1970s, despite large but compensating regional changes. the inhomogeneity of antarctic climate in space and time implies that recent antarctic climate changes are due on the one hand to a combination of strong multidecadal variability and anthropogenic effects and, as demonstrated by the paleoclimate record, on the other hand to multidecadal to millennial scale and longer natural variability forced through changes in orbital insolation,
What is the leading REOF associated with?
a very distinctive pattern of precipitation and temperature correlations that alternate in sign, extending across the eurasian continent north of the jet, with precipitation correlations exceeding 0.3 in magnitude, while the magnitudes of the temperature correlations exceed 0.6
Where are there significant precipitation correlations?
south of the asian jet
Where are the correlations with the fourth REOF associated with strongest?
north america
the leading reof is associated with a very distinctive pattern of precipitation and temperature correlations that alternate in sign, extending across the eurasian continent north of the jet, with precipitation correlations exceeding 0.3 in magnitude, while the magnitudes of the temperature correlations exceed 0.6 (fig. 4). it is noteworthy that there are also significant precipitation correlations (exceeding 0.3) south of the asian jet, and significant temperature correlations over central china and parts of northern africa. the correlations associated with the fourth reof (fig. 5) are strongest over north america, with the largest precipitation correlations occurring in the us northern great plains extending north into canada. the temperature correlations have an east-west dipole with one pole centered over the northern great plains and the other over eastern
What is the impact of infectious diseases?
infectious diseases can cause rapid population declines or species extinctions
What is the impact of the climate warming for the environment?
climate warming can increase pathogen development and survival rates, disease transmission, and host susceptibility. although most host-parasite systems are predicted to experience more frequent or severe disease impacts with warming, a subset of pathogens might decline with warming, releasing hosts from disease
What are the necessary changes to improve our ability to predict epidemics in wild populations?
to improve our ability to predict epidemics in wild populations, it will be necessary to separate the independent and interactive effects of multiple climate drivers on disease impact
infectious diseases can cause rapid population declines or species extinctions. many pathogens of terrestrial and marine taxa are sensitive to temperature, rainfall, and humidity, creating synergisms that could affect biodiversity. climate warming can increase pathogen development and survival rates, disease transmission, and host susceptibility. although most host-parasite systems are predicted to experience more frequent or severe disease impacts with warming, a subset of pathogens might decline with warming, releasing hosts from disease. recently, changes in el nin~o-southern oscillation events have had a detectable influence on marine and terrestrial pathogens, including coral diseases, oyster pathogens, crop pathogens, rift valley fever, and human cholera. to improve our ability to predict epidemics in wild populations, it will be necessary to separate the independent and interactive effects of multiple climate drivers on disease impact.
which river known for its high sediment
the wuding river is known for its high sediment yield
The measure taken for reducing soil erosion what more they changes
they have also resulted in noticeable changes in the streamflow regime
as a major tributary in the middle reach of the yellow river, the wuding river is known for its high sediment yield (ludwig and probst, 1998; shi and shao, 2000). since the 1950s, significant land-use changes have taken place in the catchment to control soil erosion, maintain land productivity and improve environmental quality. the extent and rate of the changes are unprecedented. these changes include tree plantations, establishment of pasturelands, building of terraces and sediment-trapping dams. although these measures have reduced soil erosion, they have also resulted in noticeable changes in the streamflow regime. given the range of the conservation measures, it is difficult to isolate effects of the individual measures on streamflow. attempts have been made to quantify the impacts of these measures on streamflow using empirical methods, such as zhan and yu (1994) and xu and niu (2000). however, it is difficult to draw general conclusions from
What were two main causes of the up to 70 000 deaths during the heatwaves of 2003 in Europe?
the heatwaves of 2003 in europe caused up to 70 000 deaths, especially from respiratory and cardiovascular causes
climate change will aff ect health directly through a complex set of interdependent interactions. regional weather changes in temperature, sea level, precipitation, and extreme weather events will cause downstream eff ects on the environment that lead to adverse health eff ects. the epidemiological outcome of climate change on disease patterns worldwide will be profound, especially in developing countries where existing vulnerabilities to poor health remain. the added pressure of climate change to the environment will worsen this burden and pose challenging questions for public and global health. global temperature rise will directly aff ect health. the heatwaves of 2003 in europe caused up to 70 000 deaths, especially from respiratory and cardiovascular causes.28 rising temperatures are likely to generate heat-related stress, increasing the short-term mortality rate due to heatstroke.29 regions that are heavily urbanised will be more adversely aff ected than rural ones. urban populations are especially vulnerable to climate change,30 as are people with a pre-existing respiratory disease.31 modelling of climate change in the gulf predicts increased mortality rates due to cardiovascular and respiratory illnesses, thermal stress, and increased frequency of infectious vector-borne diseases in 2070-99.32 the california heatwave of 2006 showed large increases in admissions to hospitals from cardiovascular and other illnesses, and the heatwave in germany in 2003 increased mortality rates, especially from respiratory causes.33,34
What is the terms-of-trade effect?
the unconstrained economy now enjoys a comparative advantage in the production of the dirty good and will expand its production thereof. as a consequence lu eand hence emissions zu increase
What increases relative price?
the energy intensive good becomes scarcer on its domestic market
When technical change is undirected, what happens to carbon leakage?
carbon leakage will always be positive along the balanced growth path
le). intuitively it would seem clear that there should always be some carbon leakage: when a country exogenously reduces its supply of energy by introducing a limit to the amount of emissions, the energy intensive good becomes scarcer on its domestic market, giving rise to an increase in its relative price. this creates some scope for trade: the unconstrained economy now enjoys a comparative advantage in the production of the dirty good and will expand its production thereof. as a consequence lu eand hence emissions zu increase. we call this the terms-of-trade effect of a unilateral emission constraint. this result indeed holds in the case of undirected technical change, as formalized by the following proposition. proposition 1. when technical change is undirected, carbon leakage will always be positive along the balanced growth path. proof. take the ratio of (17) and (16) and rearrange to find:  lph e
How do you access the implications of climate change for the Syr Darya catchment?
we assess the implications of climate change for the syr darya catchment until 2050 using an integrated systems model approach that couples climate and land surface hydrology including snowand ice-storage (details of the coupled climate, land ice, and hydrological model can be found in pereira cardenal et al., 2011; siegfried et al., 2011
What are the most important impacts of this climate change?
first, the most important impacts of climate change in the syr darya basin result from significant changes in the seasonality of runoff. weekly runoff contributions from unregulated catchments that dewater directly into the fergana valley are shown in the upper left plate of figure 4
How have we impacted the future scenario?
historic contributions from 2000-09 are compared with the runoff regime for 2040-49 under the a2 scenario
we assess the implications of climate change for the syr darya catchment until 2050 using an integrated systems model approach that couples climate and land surface hydrology including snowand ice-storage (details of the coupled climate, land ice, and hydrological model can be found in pereira cardenal et al., 2011; siegfried et al., 2011). a baseline scenario (bl) with the current climate trend assumed to continue into the future is contrasted with the ipcc sres a2 scenario that assumes a 2.9c warming until the mid-21st century in the region.17uncertainty is accounted for in an ensemble monte carlo approach. three important modeling results emerge. first, the most important impacts of climate change in the syr darya basin result from significant changes in the seasonality of runoff. weekly runoff contributions from unregulated catchments that dewater directly into the fergana valley are shown in the upper left plate of figure 4. historic contributions from 2000-09 are compared with the runoff regime for 2040-49 under the a2 scenario. the other plates in figure 4 show weekly runoff contributions into the major surface reservoirs in the syr darya catchment under the assumption of unregulated flow and zero consumptive upstream use, that is, no human interference with the natural runoff regime.18in all instances, the runoff peak under the a2 scenario is shifted in time from the current spring/
How does dengue spreads?
the epidemic dynamics of dengue are driven by complex interactions between human-hosts, mosquito-vectors and viruses
the epidemic dynamics of dengue are driven by complex interactions between human-hosts, mosquito-vectors and viruses. these interactions are influenced by environmental and climatic factors that may have more or less burden according to the geographical localisation, the local climatic conditions, the vector characteristics (e.g. aedes species and strains), the size and movements of human populations and the epidemiology of dengue. consequently, our results can not be applied to other ecosystems. however, the methodology of analysis used in this study could be extended to other localities highly threatened by the emergence of dengue in the south pacific, like in other tropical and subtropical countries. as global atmospheric reanalyses climate based data exist, there is hope for the development of local predictive models of dengue outbreak in countries where no reliable weather data are available.
How do people typically perceive immediate threats?
as more relevant and of greater urgency than future problems
How is the threat from climate change portrayed?
as a future rather than present risk
What is the problem with the approach of perceiving immediate threat as more relevant and of greater urgency than future problems?
people tend to discount the importance of future events
people typically perceive immediate threats as more relevant and of greater urgency than future problems.20 yet communicators often portray the threat from climate change as a future rather than present risk. the problem with this approach is that people tend to discount the importance of future events. indeed, many social scientists believe that this is one of the top reasons that it is hard to motivate people to take action to prevent climate change. cred research documents that many people count environmental and financial consequences as less important with every year they are delayed.2\\x18 for example, the average person finds little difference between getting $250 now or $366 in one year (implying an interest rate of roughly 46%). the rates of discounting are similar for environmental consequences; the average person finds little difference in 21 days of clean air now over 35 days of clean air next year. fortunately, communicators can make this predisposition (to heavily discount future larger losses) work to help people overcome a reluctance to take on immediate losses. for example, if a communicator wants audience members to sign up for weatherizing their homes (which increases a home's energy efficiency), he or she may have more success by having them commit to an evaluation of their home's efficiency three or six months into the future rather than immediately. because future consequences are discounted, people often think, "i'm busy now, but in the future i'll have more time and it won't be such a big deal." of course, the key is to ensure audience members make a binding agreement so that the evaluation and subsequent weatherization really happen in the near future. in this case, a communicator might want to have a sign-up sheet that will enable audience members to sign up for a specific appointment with a local company that offers this service or for a time the local power company might contact them to schedule an appointment.
What are examples of micro climates?
microclimate examples include the land/ lake breeze that cools the shorelines of large cities such as chicago and toronto during hot summer months, as well as the record snowfalls experienced by buffalo and its surrounding area during the winter
What has the IPCC concluded at the end of 2007?
the intergovernmental panel on climate change ipcc, 2007 has now concluded, however, that it is very likely that most of the observed temperature increase over the last 50 years was driven by emissions of greenhouse gases and other radiatively active substances from human activities
Why are summers characteristically hot and humid in the subtropical Atlantic?
summers are characteristically hot and humid due to a semipermanent high-pressure system in the subtropical atlantic that draws warm, humid ocean air into the area
this analysis describes projected climate changes in the us great lakes region, and chicago in particular, over the coming century. as the typical resolution of an atmosphere - ocean general circulation model (aogcm) is too coarse to study climate change for a single location or even a region, we apply advanced statistical downscaling methods that relate projected large-scale changes from climate model simulations to local conditions on the ground. the us great lakes region is de fi ned as encompassing the states of illinois, indiana, michigan, minnesota, ohio, and wisconsin. although the great lakes also border new york, this state was not included in the analysis. at the synoptic scale, climate in the great lakes region re fl ects its midlatitude location in the interior of the north american continent. in the winter, the absence of signi fi cant mountain barriers to the north allows arctic air masses to move southward into the region. the polar jet stream is often located near or over the region during the winter. as a result, frequent storm systems in the winter bring cloudy skies, windy conditions, and precipitation. in contrast, summers are characteristically hot and humid due to a semipermanent high-pressure system in the subtropical atlantic that draws warm, humid ocean air into the area. summer also tends to be the rainiest season, with short-lived convective rainfall and thunderstorms more common than prolonged rainy periods. at the mesoscale, large water bodies such as the great lakes are responsible for microclimates characterized by moderated temperature and/or elevated precipitation. microclimate examples include the land/ lake breeze that cools the shorelines of large cities such as chicago and toronto during hot summer months, as well as the record snowfalls experienced by buffalo and its surrounding area during the winter. in the past, most climate variations in the great lakes region and around the world have been driven by natural factors such as changes in solar radiation, dust from volcanic eruptions, and natural cycles of the earth - ocean - atmosphere system. the intergovernmental panel on climate change ipcc, 2007 has now concluded, however, that it is very likely that most of the observed temperature increase over the last 50 years was driven by emissions of greenhouse gases and other radiatively active substances from human activities.
which is used in climate impact modelling?
bias correction is widely used in climate impact modelling
What are the applications of Bias correction?
bias correction may or may not involve a downscaling step; it may or may not modify the simulated climate change; and it may adjust marginal aspects only, or also spatial, temporal and multi-variable aspects
Write about fundamental assumption of bias correction?
a fundamental assumption of bias correction is that the chosen climate model produces skillful input for a bias correction, including a plausible representation of climate change
bias correction is widely used in climate impact modelling. it first of all aims to adjust selected statistics of a climate model simulation to better match observed statistics over a present-day reference period. bias correction may or may not involve a downscaling step; it may or may not modify the simulated climate change; and it may adjust marginal aspects only, or also spatial, temporal and multi-variable aspects. a fundamental assumption of bias correction is that the chosen climate model produces skillful input for a bias correction, including a plausible representation of climate change. bias correction cannot fix fundamental problems of a climate model. current approaches do not apply physical knowledge to modify the climate change signal. if one can trust the simulated change, a trend-preserving correction is the method of choice. standard quantile mapping does in general not modify trends in a physically plausible way. current bias correction methods have a limited ability to further downscale the model output. sub-grid day-to-day variability cannot be generated, and feedbacks altering the sub-grid climate change signal cannot be represented. any modifications of spatial, temporal or multi-variable aspects may strongly break the consistency with the driving model, and affect other aspects than the desired ones. this holds in particular for major modifications of the temporal structure. cross validation of marginal aspects is not sufficient to identify problems of bias correction and needs to be complemented by an evaluation of multivariate aspects. the evaluation should be carried out in a perfect boundary setting as well as in a transient setting; ideally also the simulated climate change should be analysed, e.g. in a pseudo reality. two major issues should be addressed by bias correction research. first, the development of bias correction methods that are explicitly designed for downscaling. stochastic approaches should be developed to downscale either based on regression models 76 or disaggregation approaches 9 ]. they might be used in conjunction with quantile mapping to first bias correct and then downscale climate model data 77 ]. if downscaling is not needed, but only station data are available for bias correction, one could upscale the station statistics using taylor's hypothesis of frozen turbulence 78 ]. second, the development of approaches that explicitly incorporate process knowledge, to generate a plausible local response to climate change. such approaches might be statistical convection emulators or statistical models that represent sub-grid feedbacks 79 ]. also, the use of emergent constraints 80 should be considered to bias correct and constrain the climate change signal. in any case it should be acknowledged that a successful bias correction relies on a sound understanding not only of the statistical model, but also the relevant climatic processes and their representation of the considered climate model.
What will climate change affect? Will affect agriculture and food security in many ways
climate change will affect agriculture and food security in a variety of ways, bringing benefits to some areas and losses to others
What can happen to the increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere? It can increase plant growth and crop yields
on the one hand, increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere can enhance plant growth and crop yields
What will some regions particularly in the mid-latitudes record? Will record modest gains in agricultural production and food supply
some regions, particularly in the mid-latitudes, are likely to register modest gains in agricultural yields and food supply
climate change will affect agriculture and food security in a variety of ways, bringing benefits to some areas and losses to others. on the one hand, increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere can enhance plant growth and crop yields; on the other, agricultural pests may thrive under increased co2 concentrations while excessive heat and drought may produce widespread adverse effects on agriculture. much depends upon the rate, magnitude, and geographic pattern of climate change. some regions, particularly in the mid-latitudes, are likely to register modest gains in agricultural yields and food supply, whereas agriculture in food insecure regions will undergo radical declines or even disappear due to rising sea level or saltwater intrusion. geographic shifts in agriculture will certainly pose major challenges for those regions caught in the largest transitions. in some areas, agriculture will encroach on virgin lands and natural ecosystems. a warmer climate regime will generally alter the present distribution and productivity of forests, grasslands, savannahs, wetlands, and tundras. for example, thawing of permafrost regions may dry out tundras, sea-level rise may lead to the flooding of coastal agricultural areas, and the prior adaptation of plants and animals to a particular region may be disrupted. in areas with larger or more abrupt climate changes, farmers will find their accumulated experience a less reliable guide to the future than it has been in the past. their ability to adapt without making large errors will be severely tested. in many areas they will be forced to change planting dates, rates of fertilization, uses of irrigation, and selection of plant and animal species, and to do so within a changing physical environment and uncertain regional and global markets. trial and error will have both winners and losers, and the losers are likely to be those with the highest sensitivity and the least adaptive capacity. past studies suggest that adverse effects of climate change on agriculture and food security will be concentrated in developing countries. there these impacts will interact with other environmental and socioeconomic vulnerabilities to exacerbate hunger and to endanger food security (ipcc 2001). economic assessments suggest that a climate change of a few degrees c can jeopardize the growth of the global food supply. much of the adverse impact will be on small agriculturalists and the urban poor in developing countries. incomes of the most vulnerable people are likely to decline as the numbers of people at risk of hunger increase. over all, owing to geographic and temporal shifts in agriculture, worsening social and economic situations, and new extremes in temperature and precipitation, food security in areas already insecure, and particularly in africa, will worsen. the case of egypt suggests how far-reaching climate change may be for some developing countries. historically, egypt's rich agricultural system has been predicated on favourable temperature conditions, fertile soils, and abundant irrigation water from the nile river. with a rapidly growing population that now numbers some 63 million people (world bank 2001, 26), egypt has expanded its agriculture into desert lands adjoining the nile basin and reclaimed longused areas that have become salinized or waterlogged. nonetheless, egypt remains totally
How The international economy International trade is expressed?
the international economy international trade is expressed in terms of a limited number of tradeable goods. these are handled through the heckscher-ohlin paradigm (internationally uniform goods), rather than the armington specification (region-specific heterogenous goods
specify this paradigm:
specifically, we assume that each of the regions is capable of producing the numeraire good, and that this is identical in all regions. this is a crucial simplification. it means that heterogenous categories outside the energy sector (e.g., foodgrains, medical services, haircuts and computers) are all aggregated into a single item called "u.s. dollars of 2000 purchasing power
the tradeables are described by wich index set? What are the positive and negative points?
generically, the tradeables are described by the index set, trd the decision variables ntxpp,rg,trd may be positive (to denote exports) or negative (to denote imports) for each tradeable trd and each projection period pp, there is a balance-of-trade constraint specifying that - at a global level - net exports from all regions must be balanced with net imports
the international economy international trade is expressed in terms of a limited number of tradeable goods. these are handled through the heckscher-ohlin paradigm (internationally uniform goods), rather than the armington specification (region-specific heterogenous goods). specifically, we assume that each of the regions is capable of producing the numeraire good, and that this is identical in all regions. this is a crucial simplification. it means that heterogenous categories outside the energy sector (e.g., foodgrains, medical services, haircuts and computers) are all aggregated into a single item called "u.s. dollars of 2000 purchasing power". this is the type of simplification that is usually adopted in partial equilibrium models. clearly, this would be inappropriate if we were dealing with short-term balanceof-payments issues for individual countries. we assume that each of the regions may produce oil and gas (subject to resource exhaustion constraints), and that these commodities are tradeable between regions. in some versions of the model, we also allow for trade in eis (energy-intensive sectors such as steel and cement). and in other versions, we allow for trade in crt (carbon emission rights). generically, the tradeables are described by the index set, trd the decision variables ntxpp,rg,trd may be positive (to denote exports) or negative (to denote imports) for each tradeable trd and each projection period pp, there is a balance-of-trade constraint specifying that - at a global level - net exports from all regions must be balanced with net imports:
What are some barriers for people to change their behavior in reponse to concerns about climate change?
for some, structural barriers (e.g., poverty and climate-averse infrastructure) hinder behavior change, but for others the barriers are psychological
Which barriers are the most difficult to address?
structural barriers may be lowered with social programs and infrastructure improvements, but psychological barriers are, arguably, more difficult to overcome
What types of professionals would you consult to address some of these barriers?
collaboration between psychologists and other scientists, technical experts, and policymakers will be necessary to help citizens overcome these barriers
despite widespread concern about climate change, many people fail to engage in behaviors necessary to mitigate climate change. why are we not doing what is needed? as discussed above, the problem is the well-known gap between environmental attitudes and behavior.14-16this gap is caused by various barriers. for some, structural barriers (e.g., poverty and climate-averse infrastructure) hinder behavior change, but for others the barriers are psychological. structural barriers may be lowered with social programs and infrastructure improvements, but psychological barriers are, arguably, more difficult to overcome. collaboration between psychologists and other scientists, technical experts, and policymakers will be necessary to help citizens overcome these barriers.94-97
Explain physical factors and its synergistic global effect due to climatic change.
climate change and habitat loss are both key threatening processes driving the global loss in biodiversity. yet little is known about their synergistic effects on biological populations due to the complexity underlying both processes. if the combined effects of habitat loss and climate change are greater than the effects of each threat individually, current conservation management strategies may be inefficient and at worst ineffective. therefore, there is a pressing need to identify whether interacting effects between climate change and habitat loss exist and, if so, quantify the magnitude of their impact
Detail reasons and measures to quantify the effect on biological and habitat loss. Why?
in this article, we present a meta-analysis of studies that quantify the effect of habitat loss on biological populations and examine whether the magnitude of these effects depends on current climatic conditions and historical rates of climate change. we examined 1319 papers on habitat loss and fragmentation, identified from the past 20 years, representing a range of taxa, landscapes, land-uses, geographic locations and climatic conditions. we find that current climate and climate change are important factors determining the negative effects of habitat loss on species density and/or diversity. the most important determinant of habitat loss and fragmentation effects, averaged across species and geographic regions, was current maximum temperature, with mean precipitation change over the last 100 years of secondary importance. habitat loss and fragmentation effects were greatest in areas with high maximum temperatures. conversely, they were lowest in areas where average rainfall has increased over time
Can climate change adaptation measures be taken? How?
the first study to conduct a global terrestrial analysis of existing data to quantify and test for interacting effects between current climate, climatic change and habitat loss on biological populations. understanding the synergistic effects between climate change and other threatening processes has critical implications for our ability to support and incorporate climate change adaptation measures into policy development and management response
climate change and habitat loss are both key threatening processes driving the global loss in biodiversity. yet little is known about their synergistic effects on biological populations due to the complexity underlying both processes. if the combined effects of habitat loss and climate change are greater than the effects of each threat individually, current conservation management strategies may be inefficient and at worst ineffective. therefore, there is a pressing need to identify whether interacting effects between climate change and habitat loss exist and, if so, quantify the magnitude of their impact. in this article, we present a meta-analysis of studies that quantify the effect of habitat loss on biological populations and examine whether the magnitude of these effects depends on current climatic conditions and historical rates of climate change. we examined 1319 papers on habitat loss and fragmentation, identified from the past 20 years, representing a range of taxa, landscapes, land-uses, geographic locations and climatic conditions. we find that current climate and climate change are important factors determining the negative effects of habitat loss on species density and/or diversity. the most important determinant of habitat loss and fragmentation effects, averaged across species and geographic regions, was current maximum temperature, with mean precipitation change over the last 100 years of secondary importance. habitat loss and fragmentation effects were greatest in areas with high maximum temperatures. conversely, they were lowest in areas where average rainfall has increased over time. to our knowledge, this is the first study to conduct a global terrestrial analysis of existing data to quantify and test for interacting effects between current climate, climatic change and habitat loss on biological populations. understanding the synergistic effects between climate change and other threatening processes has critical implications for our ability to support and incorporate climate change adaptation measures into policy development and management response.
Which topics has been covered at the start of the chapter?
this chapter starts by looking at the comfort issues: what constitutes a comfortable environment and how we can future-proof buildings against climate change
What is climate changes generally characterized as ?
climate change is generally characterized as ' warming ' and an increase in heatwaves and their associated impacts might be expected, such as those experienced during the 2003 and 2006 in europe
What are the after effects of climate change as told in chapter 8?
in chapter 8 we looked at the effect these changes may have in increasing the illness and even deaths caused by the climate, which are already a feature of health in many parts of the world
this chapter starts by looking at the comfort issues: what constitutes a comfortable environment and how we can future-proof buildings against climate change. the chapter then considers the problems related to thermal health in relation to climate change. climate change is generally characterized as ' warming ' and an increase in heatwaves and their associated impacts might be expected, such as those experienced during the 2003 and 2006 in europe. some climate models also suggest that an increasingly cold climate in western europe may occur, but in a much longer time frame. in chapter 8 we looked at the effect these changes may have in increasing the illness and even deaths caused by the climate, which are already a feature of health in many parts of the world.
What are the standard parameter settings?
the standard parameter settings are h0 700 m and qclw 0 .21 g/m3
What is the base of this parameterization?
this parameterization is based loosely on scattered observations suggesting an exponential decrease of cloud water with height, combined with tuning to fit the observed meridional distribution of cloud radiative forcing by making the scale height dependent on some simple characterization of atmospheric water content
in these formulae qclw 0 and h0 are empirical constants. the standard parameter settings are h0 700 m and qclw 0 .21 g/m3. this parameterization is based loosely on scattered observations suggesting an exponential decrease of cloud water with height, combined with tuning to fit the observed meridional distribution of cloud radiative forcing by making the scale height dependent on some simple characterization of atmospheric water content. for the hard snowball case, it is important to note that qclw 0 is fixed independantly of the temperature or actual water content of the atmosphere, and therefore does not take into account the reduced supply of moisture in the cold climate of the snowball earth. the reduction of cloud effects in the snowball comes about through the reduction in hclw, occasioned by the radical drop in total precipitable water in the hard snowball atmosphere. a useful point of reference is that a cloud water concentration of 5 mg/m3
Who funded the paper ?
this paper was funded by gef and the world bank
Name the people who gives reviews comments
siwa msangi, kato edwards, mahmud yesuf and claudia ringler
this paper was funded by gef and the world bank. it is part of a larger study on the effect of climate change on african agriculture coordinated by the centre for environmental economics and policy in africa (ceepa), pretoria, south africa. the paper forms part of a brownbag and working paper series supported by beaf under the project "food and water security under global change: developing adaptive capacity with a focus on rural africa," which is associated with the cgiar challenge program on water and food. the authors are very grateful for review comments from siwa msangi, kato edwards, mahmud yesuf and claudia ringler.
What was causing the increased erosion and vulnerability to flooding of houses near the river?
a children's group in petapa in el carrizal municipality [of el salvador] identified the unregulated quarrying of stone and sand from the river as a major risk, leading to increased erosion and vulnerability to flooding of houses near the river
What did the children's group do to stop the illegal quarrying?
they devised a campaign of direct action and lobbying their parents and the local government authorities. they blockaded roads to the river, pleaded with lorry drivers, erected signs warning of the dangers, pressured their parents to stand up against quarrying and persuaded the local authority to enforce regulations that would stop illegal extraction
What was the effect of the campaign by the children's group?
quarrying along vulnerable stretches of river bank has now stopped
children in el salvador organising to take charge of their risk environment a children's group in petapa in el carrizal municipality [of el salvador] identified the unregulated quarrying of stone and sand from the river as a major risk, leading to increased erosion and vulnerability to flooding of houses near the river. together and initially without adult support, and despite many adults objecting, they devised a campaign of direct action and lobbying their parents and the local government authorities. they blockaded roads to the river, pleaded with lorry drivers, erected signs warning of the dangers, pressured their parents to stand up against quarrying and persuaded the local authority to enforce regulations that would stop illegal extraction. quarrying along vulnerable stretches of river bank has now stopped. (mitchell et. al., 2008)
These calculations are similar to which one?
these calculations are similar to the ones presented in appendix a
Why the stochastic model for climate variables alone in (5.8) is necessarily complicated?
the stochastic model for climate variables alone in (5.8) is necessarily complicated due to the interplay of the many phenomena associated with driving by the unresolved variables and the fast-wave effects
In particular, what they have observed?
in particular, we observe in the equations in (5.8) both stable and unstable langevin terms, modification of the climate mean, nonlinear corrections of the climate variables dynamics, and multiplicative noises
dlk and similar relations hold for - l12 jk(t) - b111 jkl(t), theorem 5.3 can be proven using the asymptotic procedure of averaging modified as to account for fast averaging. in this paper we will only provide a formal derivation as outlined in section 5.3. these calculations are similar to the ones presented in appendix a. the stochastic model for climate variables alone in (5.8) is necessarily complicated due to the interplay of the many phenomena associated with driving by the unresolved variables and the fast-wave effects. in particular, we observe in the equations in (5.8) both stable and unstable langevin terms, modification of the climate mean, nonlinear corrections of the climate variables dynamics, and multiplicative noises. besides the example in section 5.1, a simple example illustrating these general features will be described in section 7.3, and other more complex examples with nontrivial averaging due to topography, beta effects, and the mean u are given in the stochastic models in (6.38) and (6.42) in section 6.
What is one of the larger and more obvious systematic changes seen in the simulation?
one of the larger and more obvious systematic changes to the simulation is a general warming of the troposphere (see fig. 2), with a relatively widespread warming of the tropopause at virtually all latitudes
What does the T85 simulation show about the atmosphere?
the t85 simulation also shows a modest drying of the atmosphere outside of the deep tropics, most notably over northern hemisphere land areas
What energy property difference was seen when comparing simulations of the T42 and T85 CAM3 configurations?
there is, however, a redistribution of energy in the system at t85, which is easiest to discuss in terms of zonal means
in many respects, the large-scale simulation properties of the t42 and t85 cam3 configurations are very similar, exhibiting analogous biases with respect to observational data. fields like surface temperature generally show changes that would be expected from differences in elevation associated with changes in horizontal resolution. one of the larger and more obvious systematic changes to the simulation is a general warming of the troposphere (see fig. 2), with a relatively widespread warming of the tropopause at virtually all latitudes. the t85 simulation also shows a modest drying of the atmosphere outside of the deep tropics, most notably over northern hemisphere land areas. there are also a collection of other significant simulation differences that are of importance to coupling the atmosphere to other component models. these differences fall into three categories worthy of discussion: differences in radiative forcing, differences in the low-level dynamical circulation, and differences in surface water exchange processes, principally attributable to the precipitation component. as shown in table 1, the t42 and t85 cam3 configurations exhibit very similar energy budget properties on global annual time scales. there is, however, a redistribution of energy in the system at t85, which is easiest to discuss in terms of zonal means. the t85 model shows a reduction in outgoing longwave radiation (olr) of approximately 3 wm  
What are the reasons of climate changing?
variability in changing climate is likely to limit range expansions and shifts, and increase the likelihood of range contractions
What is decadal range dynamics under climate change increases?
the net outcome of decadal range dynamics under climate change is increased endangerment for many species in our study and probable extinction for others
our climate-path analyses reveal a series of observations regarding climate-induced range dynamics that have previously received little attention. variability in changing climate is likely to limit range expansions and shifts, and increase the likelihood of range contractions. the degree to which this occurs will strongly depend on species  ability to persist under short periods of unfavourable climate, as well as the more commonly recognised trait - dispersal ability. the relative importance of dispersal and persistence depend on the speed and regularity with which a climate path advances. considering both traits in tandem is likely to be useful when developing regionand taxonspecific risk assessments. the net outcome of decadal range dynamics under climate change is increased endangerment for many species in our study and probable extinction for others. assuming a steady rate of climate change to evaluate species  ability to shift their ranges may overestimate species  ability to shift their ranges. although our results are based on a single taxonomic group from one region, we believe that our findings are generally applicable. the erratic tempo of climate change, which drives many of the complexities in range dynamics we observed, is likely to be a notable feature of many other parts of the world (easterling et al. 2000; fagre et al. 2003). further refinement and application of climate-path analyses as suggested here would improve our ability to forecast species  responses to climate change and inform our use of alternative conservation strategies.
What influenced the operation and management of the state-owned enterprises?
the operation and management of the soes were strongly influenced by traditional culture and communist ideology
What are the major changes included in nationwide reforms in HRM?
nationwide reforms in hrm have been launched since the 1990s, with the primary objective of enhancing efficiency and productivity in soes. major changes included the of fixed-term employment contracts and performance-based rewards, a shift in welfare provision responsibility, and a new labor law regulating employment relations (warner, 1996). additionally, employment policies and practices have been decentralized to the enterprise level, and managers in soes have been granted greater autonomy in hiring and firing workers (chow, fung, ngo, 1999
What is the consequence of the open-door policy?
as a consequence of the open-door policy, the number of foreign-invested enterprises has increased substantially in china over the past two decades
before the economic reform, state-owned enterprises had dominated the chinese economy. the operation and management of the soes were strongly influenced by traditional culture and communist ideology. the chinese culture has been marked by collectivism and confucianism, with an emphasis on respect for hierarchy, in-group harmony, reciprocity, and loyalty (chen, 1995). these culture values, together with tight bureaucratic control from the government, shaped the pre-reform hrm system in the soes, which was characterized by lifelong job security, seniority-based promotion and wage increases, and extensive welfare programs (warner, 1996; yu egri, 2005). the so-called "iron rice bowl" employment system that emphasized egalitarianism and workforce stability, however, has been criticized as incompatible with the new economic environment. nationwide reforms in hrm have been launched since the 1990s, with the primary objective of enhancing efficiency and productivity in soes. major changes included the of fixed-term employment contracts and performance-based rewards, a shift in welfare provision responsibility, and a new labor law regulating employment relations (warner, 1996). additionally, employment policies and practices have been decentralized to the enterprise level, and managers in soes have been granted greater autonomy in hiring and firing workers (chow, fung, ngo, 1999). in effect, the "iron rice bowl" employment system has been abolished. despite these changes, hr decisions in many soes still are affected by social and political considerations, particularly the pace of social security reform and the possibility of massive unemployment (wong, wong, ngo, lui, 2005; zhu, 2005). government interference in enterprise management still persists in soes, and organizational inertia has served as a deterrent to the change in hr systems (ding akhtar, 2001). as noted by goodall and warner (1999), some traditional practices (e.g., provision of social welfare and personnel administration) coexist with market-oriented practices (e.g., employment contracts and performance-related rewards) in these enterprises. as a consequence of the open-door policy, the number of foreign-invested enterprises has increased substantially in china over the past two decades. western "mainstream practices" in hrm such as formal performance appraisal, performancebased compensation, and extensive training have been widely adopted in these firms (ding et al., 2006; warner, 1997). subject to less administrative interference from the central and local governments, these firms have more discretion in designing their own hr systems (chow et al., 1999). the number of privately owned enterprises has also experienced rapid growth. one characteristic of these firms is their ability to respond quickly to environmental changes. as pointed out by warner (1996), poes have greater leeway in their employment practices than soes, and they can hire and fire workers
When do the gonads deveople?
well before the date when chicks hatch
Environmental variables have a predictive value for when what happens?
food is plentiful later in the season
birds are adapted to year-to-year variation in the timing of favourable conditions, i.e., in general they lay earlier in warmer springs dunn, 2004, this volume ). however, often birds cannot use direct measurements of abundance of the food fed to nestlings to time their reproduction, as gonad development and laying eggs occurs well before the date when chicks hatch. therefore, birds need to use cues to time their laying date, i.e., environmental variables at the time of egg formation (the environment of decision-making). these cues should have a predictive value for when food is plentiful later in the season (the environment of selection that determines the contribution to the following generation, c.f. van noordwijk and muller, 1994 ). different cues may be used, that are combined and weighted to produce a physiological response mechanism translating the cues from the environment into a laying date lambrechts and visser, 1999 ). as the environment differs from year-to-year, and consequently the value of the cues differs, birds also lay at different times. a serious but often ignored aspect of global climate change is that temperatures (or other weather variables) have not just simply increased, but that temperatures in some periods change at a different rate than in other periods, or that temperatures at different locations (wintering versus breeding area) are changing in a different way visser et al. 1998, 2003b; inouye et al. 2000; walthers et al. 2002 ). this means that the cues (the environment of decisionmaking) are affected in a different way by climate change than the environmental variables that affect the timing of favourable conditions (the environment of selection), and that climate change will lead to mistiming, i.e., that the change in timing of the birds is unequal to the change in timing of their main food sources for chick feeding figure 2 ). next we will discuss how climate change will alter the environment of decision-making (section a) and the environment of selection (section b), and
In the school of policy diffusion research focusing on regional diffusion of state policies, do bureaucrats attending regional conferences share ideas with neighboring states more or less frequently than they do with distant states?
cording to this research program, bureaucrats attend regional conferences and share ideas with neighboring states much more frequently than they do with distant states
What type of analysis is the state-of-the-art approach for testing both regional diffusion and internal determinants?
the state-of-the-art approach for testing both regional diffusion and internal determinants is an event history analysis, which uses panel data to combine both the cross-sectional approach of the internal determinants model and the regional diffusion approach (berry, 1994; berry berry, 1990; mooney, 2001
In the internal determinants model of state policy adoption theory, what is typically the dependent variable?
typically, the dependent variable is a measure of how early a state adopts a policy among a group of potential adopters, or whether a state has adopted a policy
state policy adoption theory has been generally characterized by two perspectives. the internal determinants model explains state policy adoption as a function of state political and economic characteristics (canon baum, 1981; glick, 1981; gray, 1973; regans, 1980; walker, 1969). this model is generally tested through cross-sectional regressions, and considerable empirical evidence has supported this theory. within this model, there are several different strategies for isolating the political and economic characteristics that lead to policy adoption by states. typically, the dependent variable is a measure of how early a state adopts a policy among a group of potential adopters, or whether a state has adopted a policy. nevertheless, some methodological problems are associated with this cross-sectional approach. because policies are adopted over a long time period, some policies become more temporally removed from the measurement year of the independent variables. depending on the temporal variation of the explanatory characteristics, results can be problematic (berry berry, 1990). the other major school of policy diffusion research has focused on regional diffusion of state policies, as states are likely to observe policy experimentation by their neighbors and implement successful policies in their own state (berry, 1994; berry berry, 1990; canon baum, 1981; mintrom, 1997; walker, 1969). according to this research program, bureaucrats attend regional conferences and share ideas with neighboring states much more frequently than they do with distant states. programs such as the rggi or the western states climate change initiative exemplify the regional diffusion hypothesis. the state-of-the-art approach for testing both regional diffusion and internal determinants is an event history analysis, which uses panel data to combine both the cross-sectional approach of the internal determinants model and the regional diffusion approach (berry, 1994; berry berry, 1990; mooney, 2001). this
What species of lizards is called the Australian sleepy lizard?
tiliqua rugosa
What type of winter weather existed during the study period when lizard activities was highest?
the last months of winter (july and august) have become warmer and drier, and the spring months when lizard activity is highest (september and october) have become wetter
How has the climatic shifts affected lizard behavior?
these climatic shifts have been associated with changes in the timing of lizard pairing behaviour
one of the few long-term datasets for australian fauna is that for the sleepy lizard, tiliqua rugosa collected in mid-north sa by bull and colleagues since 1983. over the study period 1983-1997, the last months of winter (july and august) have become warmer and drier, and the spring months when lizard activity is highest (september and october) have become wetter (bull burzacott 2002). these climatic shifts have been associated with changes in the timing of lizard pairing behaviour. specifically, pairing tended to start earlier following the warmer, drier winters of the later years of the study and persisted for longer. as part of the same
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) IPCC, 2001] and others have extensively used what as the most basic way of comparing the importance of different causes of climate change?
the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) ipcc, 2001] and others have extensively used radiative forcing of climate change as the most basic way of comparing the importance of different causes of climate change
What is radiative forcing?
radiative forcing is defined as the change in the irradiance at the tropopause following, for example, an increase in carbon dioxide concentration or a change in solar output
It is termed instantaneous radiative forcing under which circumstance?
if all other parameters are held fixed it is termed the instantaneous radiative forcing
the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) ipcc, 2001] and others have extensively used radiative forcing of climate change as the most basic way of comparing the importance of different causes of climate change. radiative forcing is defined as the change in the irradiance at the tropopause following, for example, an increase in carbon dioxide concentration or a change in solar output. if all other parameters are held fixed it is termed the instantaneous radiative forcing. however, radiative forcing has a generally greater utility if the relatively fast process of stratospheric temperature adjustment, resulting directly from the imposition of the forcing, is taken into account [e.g. hansen et al., 1997 ipcc, 1995]. this is normally referred to, in shorthand, as the "adjusted radiative forcing". the global-mean forcing will be de  a.
What is comprehensive global assessments?
figure 3 depicts the main concepts considered in an impact assessment and their relationships. the assessment starts from scenarios of either emissions or atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (and aerosol precursors) such as the often assumed 2 x co2 case. (global integrated assessments may start even earlier in the cause - effect chain, by looking at the underlying driving forces leading to emissions
What are climate models?
climate models translate these scenarios into projections for future anthropogenic climate change the climate change community, in large part because of its intense co-operation within the ipcc, is developing a common terminology, although definitions are still
impact assessments evaluate the potential effects of one or several climate change scenarios on one or more impact domains, and compare them to a hypothetical constant climate scenario. in so doing they aim to contribute to the identification of " [levels of] greenhouse gas concentrations that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system ", referred to by article 2 of the united nations framework convention on climate change (unfccc, united nations general assembly, 1992). figure 3 depicts the main concepts considered in an impact assessment and their relationships. the assessment starts from scenarios of either emissions or atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (and aerosol precursors) such as the often assumed 2 x co2 case. (global integrated assessments may start even earlier in the cause - effect chain, by looking at the underlying driving forces leading to emissions .) climate models translate these scenarios into projections for future anthropogenic climate change the climate change community, in large part because of its intense co-operation within the ipcc, is developing a common terminology, although definitions are still
Almost all freshwater ostracods seem to exert what effect on the oxygen isotopic composition?
a small positive (+0.3 to +2.5%0) vital effect
Recent research has suggested that the offset can be attributed to what factors?
differences in internal ph and rate of calcification within the organism
What appears to be systematic and species-specific?
ostracod 'vital' effects
vital effects - biogenic carbonates vital effects are most commonly documented in d18o composition of ostracod shells. holmes and chivas (2002) have tabulated the vital offsets (compared to equilibrium calcite) for a number of ostracod taxa. almost all freshwater ostracods seem to exert a small positive (+0.3 to +2.5%0) vital effect on the oxygen isotopic composition ie ostracod valve calcite is slightly enriched in comparison to equilibrium precipitates (eg xia et al, 1997; von grafenstein et al, 1999a; holmes and chivas, 2002). recent research has suggested that the offset can be attributed to differences in internal ph and rate of calcification within the organism in any case ostracod 'vital' effects appear to be systematic and species-specific. the offsets appear to be consistent across a range of temperatures but relatively few studies have attempted to test this. the the d13c values of ostracod shells are generally thought to be similar to those of contemporaneous authigenic calcite as any vital effects are offset by variations in the isotopic composition of the total dissolved inorganic carbon (tdic) on the microscale (cf von grafenstein et al 1999a).
What was the fundamental purpose of the Convention?
to find ways of dealing with climate change in a development context
What are the benefits of adaptation are assumed to be?
mainly local and to fall to those who do the adapting
The notion of climate change as primarily a pollution problem to be dealt with by emissions control came to dominate negotiations almost excluded what?
adaptation
adaptation is thought of mainly in terms of measures, not policy (for which it is most difficult to separate normal climate and climate change). it seeks a comprehensive approach in which adaptation is integrated into mitigation. a key question is ,,by how much can the costs of climate change impacts be reduced by adaptation?" it is part of a globally negotiated management process. although these characteristics now dominate the convention perspective this was not the case at the time when the convention was being negotiated in 1989-92. recall that the convention was among the agreements signed at the rio de janeiro 1992 united nations conference on environment and development, the so-called earth summit. the fundamental purpose of the convention was to find ways of dealing with climate change in a development context. thus article 2 states that: "the ultimate objective of this convention and any related legal instruments that the conference of the parties may adopt is to achieve, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the convention, stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner." further, the notion of adaptation is given considerable weight in the text of the convention. the emphasis on mitigation and the comparative neglect of adaptation came about partly as a result of the success of the previously negotiated vienna convention for the protection of the ozone layer (1985) and the montreal protocol on substances that deplete the ozone layer (1987). thus the notion of climate change as primarily a pollution problem to be dealt with by emissions control came to dominate negotiations almost to the exclusion of adaptation. indeed those who pointed to the need for adaptation were often castigated as being ,,soft on mitigation" or worse still, attempting to deny the significance of the problem altogether. the slow realization of the importance of adaptation can also be seen in the reasons for the creation and evolution of the global environment facility as the funding mechanism. the three so-called rio conventions on climate change, desertification, and biodiversity all dealt with environmental issues considered to fall into the general category of ,,global". as such the participation of the developing countries on these matter of global concern was agreed on the basis that they would not be expected to bear additional costs. thus a category of enabling activities was created. these activities were those that enabled the developing countries to participate in the conventions at no extra cost to themselves. this includes preparing national communications required under the convention. it did not and does not apply to specific measures or project activities taken under the convention such as the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions or adaptation. these are only admitted to the financing windows when they can be shown to have or are assumed to have global environmental benefits by this criterion the reduction of emissions is considered to yield global benefits to the extent that it reduces greenhouse gas concentrations in the global atmosphere. on the other hand the benefits of adaptation are assumed to be mainly local and to fall to those who do the adapting, and to the
what is a good way of studying interactions at a mechanistic level?
microcosm experiments can be good ways of studying interactions at a mechanistic level
can we transfer replication to other species and real landscapes?
allowing sufficient replication and with influences beyond the variables of interest kept constant.127however, their transferability to real-world situations (e.g., other species and real landscapes) may be limited
microcosm experiments can be good ways of studying interactions at a mechanistic level, allowing sufficient replication and with influences beyond the variables of interest kept constant.127however, their transferability to real-world situations (e.g., other species and real landscapes) may be limited.151field experiments at the plot scale are more realistic and can identify effects of climate variables with some confidence (e.g., ref 152); a small number have also looked at interactions with management (e.g., ref 153). however, experiments at landscape scale are not likely to be possible, due to the practicalities of manipulating land use and climate across sufficient areas and achieving sufficient replication. one of the most efficient approaches may be to exploit natural gradients in climate and land use and use long term ecological monitoring schemes to assess effects on populations and communities. with sufficient spatial replication, climate patterns across space can be used as a surrogate for temporal patterns, and replicated across different land use classes. however, extrapolating from spatial patterns to temporal predictions can be error prone if the response variable has not achieved an equilibrium state, e.g., metapopulations may be in 'extinction debt' where the negative impacts of habitat fragmentation show a time-lag.154
What protect this article?
this article is protected by copyright
Which rights are reserved?
all rights reserved
Which part of Africa is season failure projected to increase?
probability of season failure is projected to increase for all of sub-saharan africa, except for central africa
this article is protected by copyright. all rights reserved. probability of season failure is projected to increase for all of sub-saharan africa, except for central africa; in southern africa, nearly all rain-fed agriculture below latitude 15degs is likely to fail one year out of two (thornton et al., 2011). the robustness of these estimates, in terms of intra-model variability, is particularly low in the sahel region and in parts of south-western africa, however (thornton et al., 2011). in terms of timing of growing season onset, crespo et al. (2011) demonstrate that it may be possible to adapt to projected climate shifts to at least the 2050s in maize production systems in parts of southern africa by changing planting dates.
What are the differences between prototypical heirarchists and individualists?
prototypical hierarchists most fear social deviance, which threatens the structure of status quo. they call for the active management of risk by 'experts,' in whom they place great trust. prototypical individualists most fear restrictions on their autonomy, such as government regulation
What are the similarities between prototypical heirarchists and individualists?
both hierarchists and individualists tend to embrace technology, which is viewed instrumentally as providing either more social control
What are the four basic world views based on level of prescription?
in a 2 x 2 matrix of social relations by level of prescription, four basic worldviews emerge: hierarchical, fatalistic, individualistic, and egalitarian
cultural theorists argue that social values and worldviews also play an important role in risk perception and behavior. originating in the work of anthropologist mary douglas(douglas,1966,1970;douglasetal.,1998;douglasandwildavsky,1982), cultural theory focuses on how different individuals and groups interpret the world in different, yet patterned ways. worldviews are defined by dake (1991, 1992) and dake and wildavsky (1990, 1991) as general social, cultural and political attitudes toward the world and "orienting dispositions" that guide individual responses in complex situations. worldviews are mediated by social relations; an individual is either more group-oriented or individual-oriented. likewise, an individual believes that many socially stratified rules are needed to control behavior, or that few rules are necessary. "in a 2 x 2 matrix of social relations by level of prescription, four basic worldviews emerge: hierarchical, fatalistic, individualistic, and egalitarian" (peters and slovic, 1996, p. 1430). these are, however, only ideal types: "this typology is a heuristic device; few individuals should be expected to hold to these extreme positions consistently" (jaeger et al., 1998, p. 191). cultural theorists argue that hierarchists, individualists, egalitarians and fatalists each identify and define different risks; those that threaten their own preferred way of life. each worldview thus represents a different 'rationality;' a set of presuppositions about the ideal nature of society which leads each group to perceive different risks and prefer different policy responses. prototypical hierarchists most fear social deviance, which threatens the structure of status quo. they call for the active management of risk by 'experts,' in whom they place great trust. prototypical individualists most fear restrictions on their autonomy, such as government regulation. they promote market-based strategies that maintain their autonomy and provide opportunities for personal gain, believing that the 'invisible hand' - of self-interested actors seeking to maximize their own personal gain - leads to optimal social results. both hierarchists and individualists tend to embrace technology, which is viewed instrumentally as providing either more social control (if 50 anthony leiserowitz
Are correlational studies the best way to test the multiple working hypotheses?
precise alternative hypotheses are the first requirement, and correlational studies are the weakest way to test the multiple working hypotheses required
Why are large-scale effects difficult to investigate?
large-scale effects are difficult to investigate because of heterogeneity in environmental variables, and long-term predictions require more patience to test adequately
What are the setbacks of multifactorial hypotheses?
multifactorial hypotheses are required for the investigation of climatic effects but these are too often vague and qualitative
we discuss 3 methodological issues involved in climate-population dynamics research. precise alternative hypotheses are the first requirement, and correlational studies are the weakest way to test the multiple working hypotheses required. large-scale effects are difficult to investigate because of heterogeneity in environmental variables, and long-term predictions require more patience to test adequately. multifactorial hypotheses are required for the investigation of climatic effects but these are too often vague and qualitative. complex computer models can almost never be empirically validated and their predictions should be carefully examined. we illustrate these problems with 3 case studies: snowshoe hares in canada, desert rodents in arizona, and red kangaroos in australia. correlations abound but mechanistic understanding is limited because of long causal chains and indirect effects. key words: population dynamics * hypothesis testing * manipulative experiments * mammals * desert ecosystems
MRI-CCM is an upgraded version of what ?
mri-ccm is an upgraded version of the mri-ctm (shibata et al. 2005; shibata and deushi, 2008
What is weaker in the middle atmospher ?
explicit bi-harmonic horizontal diffusivity is weaker in the middle atmosphere than in the troposphere to allow for a representation of the qbo (shibata and deushi, 2005a
What is the new scheme?
the new scheme is semi-lagrangian with a quintic interpolation in the horizontal, but fl ux form in the vertical, wherein advection is calculated with the piecewise rational method (prm) (xiao and peng, 2004
mri-ccm is an upgraded version of the mri-ctm (shibata et al. 2005; shibata and deushi, 2008). the dynamical core of mri-ccm is based on the spectral global model mj98 (shibata et al. 1999) at a triangular truncation of t42 used for ccm simulations. the model employs hybrid-pressure coordinates in the vertical with 68 layers, the thickness of which is about 500 m between 100 and 10 hpa with tapering off below and above the levels, respectively. explicit bi-harmonic horizontal diffusivity is weaker in the middle atmosphere than in the troposphere to allow for a representation of the qbo (shibata and deushi, 2005a). transport of chemical species is performed using a hybrid semi-lagrangian scheme satisfying the continuity equation (see below). the chemistry module comprises full stratospheric chemistry including the relevant heterogeneous reactions on pscs and sulfate aerosols, and also a simplifi ed representation of tropospheric chemistry. changes since ccmval1: * implementation of a new hybrid semi-lagrangian scheme. the new scheme is semi-lagrangian with a quintic interpolation in the horizontal, but fl ux form in the vertical, wherein advection is calculated with the piecewise rational method (prm) (xiao and peng, 2004).
What is the cause of the increased coastal vulnerability?
the increased coastal vulnerability is due to differential population densities along the coast and in coastal deltas, and the greater openness of the indian economy to trade
Why Asian countries are more vulnerable to sea-level rise?
they have three-quarters of the world's population and two-thirds of the world's urban population with a concentration greater than five million living in the low elevation coastal zone (lecz
What are the most vulnerable stretches along the western indian coast?
the most vulnerable stretches along the western indian coast are khambhat and kuchh in gujarat, mumbai and parts of the konkan coast, and south kerala
besides this, a mean sea-level rise (slr) that could reach 0.8 metres over the century(20) can put a number of regions and cities at risk. a study by mcgranahan et al. shows that asian countries are highly vulnerable to sea-level rise, as they have three-quarters of the world's population and two-thirds of the world's urban population with a concentration greater than five million living in the low elevation coastal zone (lecz).(21) the most vulnerable stretches along the western indian coast are khambhat and kuchh in gujarat, mumbai and parts of the konkan coast, and south kerala. a significant amount of settlement area is expected to be lost in the ganga, krishna, godavari, cauvery and mahanadi deltas on the east coast.(22) the increased coastal vulnerability is due to differential population densities along the coast and in coastal deltas, and the greater openness of the indian economy to trade.
In Iceland today, what are small remnants of the pre-historic forests that can be viewed as a result of inappropriate land management?
in iceland today, woodlands are but small remnants of the pre-historic forests and this can be viewed as a result of inappropriate land management (eysteinsson and blondal 2003
in iceland today, woodlands are but small remnants of the pre-historic forests and this can be viewed as a result of inappropriate land management (eysteinsson and blondal 2003). indeed there are many historical examples of confl ict as a result of disputes over this declining resource, as through much of icelandic history native woodland was the key source of charcoal, vital for the effective maintenance of tools and farm operations. perhaps, however, a key point when considering the fate of icelandic woodlands is that they have actually survived into the modern era (if in a much reduced form) --a better record than that of rapi nui/ easter island (flenley and bahn 2003). in iceland, measures were taken to conserve declining woodland resources when they had reached the point that further reductions could have been potentially catastrophic. in southern iceland, for example, lowland woodlands were cleared rapidly (hallsdottir 1987). at the farm of stora mork (c. 30 km west of thorsmork), for example, tephra layers in peat sections show that woodlands in the area of the present home fi elds were cleared between 870 and 920 a.d., and probably within the fi rst 30 years of settlement (mairs et al. 2006) (fig. 1). up valley, charcoal production pits (also preserved in aggrading soil profi les containing
which year landscape is focused?
landscape 2013 is focused on helping public policymakers
how many groups are chosen for scale-up?
we have chosen to examine the following six groups of public and private actors more closely 
what is  the best available data with findings from relevant CPI analytical work ?
in each case, we combine the best available data with findings from relevant cpi analytical work to highlight particular lessons that may help policymakers as they work to replicate and scale up successful approaches
building on detailed information presented in the previous section, landscape 2013 is focused on helping public policymakers, in particular, to understand more about the actors that are really driving and delivering climate finance action, how and why they engage, and how they might be encouraged to further scale-up their engagement in the future. we have chosen to examine the following six groups of public and private actors more closely because between them they represent a large portion of available finance flows (development finance institutions dfis, households, and utilities), possess tools that enable private investments (dfis, government bodies, climate funds), and might be used to even greater effect to unlock potential new sources of capital (institutional investors). in each case, we combine the best available data with findings from relevant cpi analytical work to highlight particular lessons that may help policymakers as they work to replicate and scale up successful approaches.
What does "u" denotes?
u is the overall mean value of each trait t
t u p f /g/s e, (1) where u is the overall mean value of each trait t ), p is the plot e ff ect i.e. the e ff ect of 3715 the location at which each individual was found (soils and climate), f g s represents the genetic structure of the data, i.e. that each individual belongs to a species s ), nested in a genus g ), nested in a family f ), and e is the error term. all parameters were estimated by the residual maximum likelihood (reml) method with the lme4 library (bates, 2008). the multilevel model eq. (1), in a similar way to taxonomically based 5
What is the year of  risk of mainstreaming adaptation into development ?
2006
what is reduce the official development assistance ?
oda
What is the years of  national and sectoral development ?
huq et al. 2003; lemos et al. 2007; unfccc 2007
mainstreaming adaptation into development because climate change will impact all aspects of sustainable development and because vulnerability depends strongly on development, policy makers must strive to mainstream adaptation to climate change into national and sectoral development (huq et al. 2003; lemos et al. 2007; unfccc 2007). development interventions that do not address adaptation to climate change may worsen the socioeconomic situation (agrawal 2008). policy makers should also identify and remove maladaptive practices, i.e., existing policies that increase vulnerability (for instance, incentives to natural resource overexploitation) or adaptation measures that fail to achieve their objectives (unfccc 2007). another argument for mainstreaming adaptation into development policies is that climate change threats and the need for adaptation can be a catalyst for achieving sustainable development (unfccc 2007). however, some concerns have been raised about the risk of mainstreaming adaptation into development (klein 2006). funding for adaptation is scarce--if adaptation and development are not differentiated, there is a risk that adaptation funds will be used for any development activities, regardless of their impacts on adaptation. the funds would be used for development activities and the impacts on adaptation could be unclear or impossible to monitor. another risk is that the funding for climate policy could reduce the official development assistance (oda) flows that serve more immediate development needs (klein 2006). regarding national policies and the international funds on adaptation, mainstreaming adaptation into national development will make adaptation into 'business as usual' and mask the incremental costs of adaptation efforts, thus preventing developing countries from claiming international funding for adaptation.
The use of what can be used to improve treat wastewaters that have high amounts of organic waste?
another way of improving the efficiency of trickling filters or to treat wastewaters with high concentrations of organic waste is by using two filters in series. this is called a two-stage trickling filter system
What is one limitation of stone-bed filters?
some of the limitations of stone-bed trickling filters when operating with high organic loads refer to clogging of the void spaces, due to the excessive growth of the biofilm
When must one be concerned when regarding choice of filter media?
if land availability is of concern, a careful consideration of the filter media must be exercised
another way of improving the efficiency of trickling filters or to treat wastewaters with high concentrations of organic waste is by using two filters in series. this is called a two-stage trickling filter system. there are various possible configurations with different forms of effluent recirculation. some of the limitations of stone-bed trickling filters when operating with high organic loads refer to clogging of the void spaces, due to the excessive growth of the biofilm. in these conditions, flooding (ponding) and system failures may occur. if land availability is of concern, a careful consideration of the filter media must be exercised. the most commonly used material is still stones and gravel. however, the empty volume is limited in a trickling filter with stones, thus restricting the air circulation in the filter and consequently the quantity of oxygen available for the microorganisms and the quantity of wastewater that can be treated. the specific surface area (exposure area per unit volume of the medium) is also low, reducing the available sites for biofilm attachment and growth. to overcome these limitations, other materials can be used. these materials include corrugated plastic modules, plastic rings and others. these materials offer larger surface areas for the bacterial growth (approximately double that of typical stones), besides the significant increase in the empty spaces for air circulation. these materials are much lighter than stones (around 30 times), which allows the filters to be much higher without causing structural problems. while filters with stones are usually less than 3 metres in height, filters with synthetic media can be more than 6 metres high, substantially reducing the land required for the installation of the filters. c) submerged aerated biofilters a submerged aerated biofilter consists of a tank filled with a porous material, through which wastewater and air permanently flow. in almost all of the existing processes, the porous medium is maintained under total immersion. the biofilter is a three-phase reactor composed of (gon,calves, 1996):
What positive consequences emerge from curbing the emission of greenhouse gases?
mitigating the emissions of greenhouse gases (ghgs) means using less energy, generating more energy from low-emissions sources, protecting carbon stores such as forests, encouraging the development of low emissions technologies and providing incentives to discourage high-emissions investments
Are international mitigation policies always beneficial for developing nations?
international mitigation policies, however, create both threats and opportunities for developing countries (peskett 2010
What is the basis of low emissions development in poorer countries?
poor countries, however, need to ensure that incentives also generate development and poverty reduction benefits. that is the basis of low emissions development (see figure 1.), where development and mitigation strategies overlap
mitigating the emissions of greenhouse gases (ghgs) means using less energy, generating more energy from low-emissions sources, protecting carbon stores such as forests, encouraging the development of low emissions technologies and providing incentives to discourage high-emissions investments. mitigation strategies span nearly all sectors, especially energy, industry, agriculture, forestry and transport. this creates choices for policy makers about the share of emissions between sectors and the options for investing in economic growth. the reduction of ghg emissions is less of a priority in low income countries that have contributed least to climate change. though when taking land use change and forestry into account, emissions of countries like indonesia, malaysia, myanmar and the democratic republic of the congo become much more significant (see fig 2) and why redd+ (see box 2) has become such an important part of international climate change policy. international mitigation policies, however, create both threats and opportunities for developing countries (peskett 2010). emissions reduction and protection of carbon stores are relatively cheap in poor countries, and international markets and public and private investments are offering incentives for low emissions transitions or keeping emissions low (box 2). poor countries, however, need to ensure that incentives also generate development and poverty reduction benefits. that is the basis of low emissions development (see figure 1.), where development and mitigation strategies overlap. there is, however, limited systematic evidence of the poverty reduction or wider development benefits of switching from high emissions to development strategies that lower emissions or keep them low. there are knowledge gaps on how to make mitigation strategies resilient to a changing climate, a prerequisite for achieving the 'co-benefits' highlighted in figure 1. for example, are hydro projects sustainable with less rainfall? should nuclear power installations be built at sea level? do measures to reduce emissions while intensifying production in the agriculture sector lock families into more risky, less diverse livelihoods?
Where are the more preditable places in Europe to measure the climate system ?
for land sat in the north west european region which showed that there are some states of the climate system which are more predictable than on average
What is needed in order to identify the states which show high potential predictability ?
either many more ensemble experiments are required in order to ad29 equately sample the "climate attractor" and to identify the states which show high potential predictability
What was the cause of some of the sucess of ENSO ?
there has been some success in the case of enso in applying singular vectors
an example was given for land sat in the north west european region which showed that there are some states of the climate system which are more predictable than on average. this state-dependence is well know in the weather forecasting literature (e.g. molteni et al (1996))) where skillful lead times can vary from days to weeks depending on the current weather regime. either many more ensemble experiments are required in order to ad29 equately sample the "climate attractor" and to identify the states which show high potential predictability, or techniques need to be developed (such as the singular vectors of weather forecasting) which provide a cheaper (and arguably more elegant) estimate of predictability. there has been some success in the case of enso in applying singular vectors (e.g. chen et al (1997)) but clearly there is more work to be done.
Which writers argue that conventional project management theory only represents a particular and limited image of project management practice?
winter and checkland
In which box can you find the material in which the main characteristics of the 'hard systems' paradigm are reflected?
box 9.1
What is the new specialised discipline that has arisen along with projectification of the world?
project management
along with projectification of the world a new specialised discipline has also arisen, namely that of 'project management.' particular understandings of what a project is and how it should be managed have become reified within the main stream or conventional 'project management' community (box 9.1). now, some of the traditional approaches to project management are coming under critique in a number of areas. winter and checkland 43 for instance argue that con ventional project management theory only represents a particular and limited image of project management practice rather than comprising an all-encom passing theory as many of the college textbooks seem to imply. they argue that in the mainstream literature of the project management community the term 'project' 'is usually a reference to some product, system or facility, etc. that needs to be created, engineered or improved' with this need 'or requirement for a new or a changed product being defined at the start.' although this need may only be expressed in broad terms nonetheless it is assumed as known or 'given' from the outset.' in their work, winter and checkland 43 seek to 'show that conventional proj ect management theory embodies a particular way of seeing the practice, which is, simultaneously, a way of not seeing it.' for them this way of "seeing and not seeing is the paradigm of 'hard' systems thinking", which 'has been a prime influence on the development of project management ideas and practices over the last 40 years' (p. 188). the main characteristics of the 'hard systems' paradigm as reflected in the material in box 9.1 are box 9.1 examples of the 'mainstream' understanding of 'projects' 43
What was the mode able to simulate?
both transpiration dynamics and measured mortalities for the two species in the study area
What was the information provided during the calibration process by the measured sap flows used to reatin?
the most likely parameter sets for each species, that were used in all the following simulations
What did the results show?
that different parameters can be important under different circumstances and for different objectives
the model was able to simulate both transpiration dynamics and measured mortalities for the two species in the study area. the only difference between species that was introduced a priori was that q. ilex was more vulnerable to xylem embolism than p. latifolia (based on our own measurements in the study area, chapter 3). for all the other parameters identical distributions were assumed for the two species at the beginning of the calibration process. during the calibration the information provided by the measured sap flows was used to retain the most likely parameter sets for each species, that were used in all the following simulations. the results showed that different parameters can be important under different circumstances and for different objectives. whereas rooting depth and the two parameters related to stomatal control were the only important ones to predict transpiration rates under "normal" conditions (figure 2), other parameters (mostly related to the vulnerability to xylem embolism and the regulation of leaf area) took importance under extremely dry conditions because of their relation to mortality (figure 3). it is interesting to note that the pattern was very similar for the two studied species, although they differed substantially in the actual parameter values predicted by the model (figure 3). 7. a model to predict drought-induced mortality in woody plants 136
What was the subject of the eight reviews the author wrote during the 1990s?
the subject of the eight reviews i wrote during the 1990s was 'global warming
What is the subject of these new biennial reviews?
the subject of these new biennial reviews is to be 'climate change', the change of nomenclature reflecting an interesting change of perspective and framing
What does (IPCC) stands for?
intergovernmental panel on climate change
it is over a decade since i wrote the last of my annual review articles for progress in physical geography (hulme, 2000). the subject of the eight reviews i wrote during the 1990s was 'global warming'. the subject of these new biennial reviews is to be 'climate change', the change of nomenclature reflecting an interesting change of perspective and framing. the significance of language in social discourse, public perceptions and policy framing of climate change has recently been explored, respectively, by nerlich et al., (2010), whitmarsh (2009) and nisbet (2009). the subject of the first of these new reviews for progress in physical geography is the united nations intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc). the institution received, jointly, the 2007 nobel peace prize for 'its effort to build up and disseminate greater knowledge about man-made climate change and to lay the foundations for the measures that are needed to counteract such change'. yet during 2010 the ipcc has come under unparalleled public and political scrutiny (bagla, 2010; schiermeier, 2010). it is therefore timely to survey the scope and depth of academic research into the nature of this institution - its origins and mandate; its mobilisation of expertise; its governance; its representation of uncertain knowledge; and its impact and influence. i am also partly inspired to this task by the 'spatial turn' in the history and philosophy of science (e.g. shapin, 1998; livingstone, 2007; finnegan, 2008): space matters in the making and mobilising of knowledge. the literature reviewed here comes mainly from science and technology studies, policy studies, political science, environmental sociology, philosophy of science and from a few areas of academic geography.
What does the acronym CGIAR stand for?
consultative group on international agricultural research (cgiar
What is the goal of the CGIAR?
the cgiar plans to contribute its broad-based and multidisciplinary experience in developing-country agriculture to global efforts to adapt to and mitigate climate change through research on agriculture and natural resources
What types of activites is the CGIAR involved in?
breeding crops for stress tolerance; developing better practices for sustainable crop and environmental management; gauging the vulnerability of agriculture, natural resources, and rural communities; and supporting the development of policies conducive to sustainable agricultural growth
the consultative group on international agricultural research (cgiar) is a strategic partnership, whose members support 15 international centers and five major collaborative programs around the world. the cgiar plans to contribute its broad-based and multidisciplinary experience in developing-country agriculture to global efforts to adapt to and mitigate climate change through research on agriculture and natural resources. work already underway that is directly applicable to climate change research includes breeding crops for stress tolerance; developing better practices for sustainable crop and environmental management; gauging the vulnerability of agriculture, natural resources, and rural communities; and supporting the development of policies conducive to sustainable agricultural growth. the cgiar's consortium for spatial information is taking the initiative with other centers of excellence to create a climate information portal for mapping data. the climate change challenge program is uniting the expertise of the cgiar with the earth system science partnership to close critical knowledge gaps on how to deal with trade-offs among food security, livelihood, and environmental goals as climate changes.
What influences coastal ecosystems?
the conditions in the adjacent ocean as well as on land and along the coast
What does climate change along the coast affect?
thermal gradients, water column stratification, winds, precipitation, boundary currents, and upwelling. warming intensifies pressure gradients between land and sea
Since 2002, changes in wind forcing along the northwestern United States coast have resulted in?
an upwelling regime that moves water severely depleted in dissolved oxygen onto near-shore habitats, resulting in mass mortalities (83
coastal ecosystems are influenced by the conditions in the adjacent ocean as well as on land and along the coast. climatic oscillations (such as enso) will be affected in ways that are presently poorly understood yet can have profound consequences for marine ecosystems and fish populations (80). along the coast, climate change will affect thermal gradients, water column stratification, winds, precipitation, boundary currents, and upwelling. warming intensifies pressure gradients between land and sea; thus, upwelling winds are expected to intensify in eastern boundary current systems (81), and coastal upwelling intensity seems to have increased already during the late twentieth century (82). since 2002, changes in wind forcing along the northwestern united states coast have resulted in an upwelling regime that moves water severely depleted in dissolved oxygen onto near-shore habitats, resulting in mass mortalities (83). changes in wind forcing that modify coastal currents, upwelling intensity, and surface temperature also influence the recruitment of marine species that utilize estuaries as nursery habitat in san francisco bay, california (84). the ph and calcium carbonate saturation are being reduced as the rising atmospheric co2 concentrations equilibrate with surface ocean waters (85). this decline in ph of ocean surface waters during the past 30 years and an overall decrease from the preindustrial period of 0.1 ph units is already well documented. the ph is projected to decrease further by 0.3-0.4 units by the end of the century if co2 emissions continue to grow at recent rates (86). in short, the process of ocean
What is the most important insight arising from an interdisciplinary assessment on uncertainty?
the most important insight arising from an interdisciplinary assessment on uncertainty is its conceptual diversity
What should be the range of a general scale?
it is tempting to organize guidelines on uncertainty around a general scale going from totally certain (or totally true) to totally unknowable
Why may a uniform taxonomic approach not be the most appropriate way to systematically explore concepts?
however, although a uniform taxonomic approach is a very systematic way to explore concepts, it may not be the most appropriate approach within the context of guidelines for hundreds of authors. as discussed above, using a multi-dimensional typology of uncertainty is quite complex, and may result in a vocabulary that is precise in a technical context but ineffective at communication. also, while the above discussion of the objective/subjective, the precise/imprecise, the causal/intentionality dimensions of uncertainty is key for demonstrating the importance of diversity in uncertainty treatment, it is not necessarily the best way to structure the uncertainty communication framework
a broader approach rather than a scale it is tempting to organize guidelines on uncertainty around a general scale going from totally certain (or totally true) to totally unknowable. unfortunately a strict hierarchical classification is hard to find in the domain of risks and uncertainty. the most important insight arising from an interdisciplinary assessment on uncertainty is its conceptual diversity. there have been attempts at systematic taxonomies of uncertainty (see, e.g. smithson, 1989, walker et al., 2003; janssen et al., 2005; petersen, 2006, see also section 2). however, although a uniform taxonomic approach is a very systematic way to explore concepts, it may not be the most appropriate approach within the context of guidelines for hundreds of authors. as discussed above, using a multi-dimensional typology of uncertainty is quite complex, and may result in a vocabulary that is precise in a technical context but ineffective at communication. also, while the above discussion of the objective/subjective, the precise/imprecise, the causal/intentionality dimensions of uncertainty is key for demonstrating the importance of diversity in uncertainty treatment, it is not necessarily the best way to structure the uncertainty communication framework. it is beyond the scope of this paper to discuss all elements of uncertainty communication in the context of climate changex
Why has the communication of climate change from scientists and policy-makers to the public via the mass media been a subject of major interest?
because of its implications for creating national variation in public understanding of a global environmental issue
How is India a key actor in the climate change story?
as one of the major emerging economies, and so one of the major greenhouse gas emitters
How is public understanding and opinion highly significant in India?
those who shape public knowledge and perceptions are those who play a major role in defining the country's course of action in india, particularly in the shaping of governmental policy
much research has now been conducted into the representation of climate change in the media. specifically, the communication of climate change from scientists and policy-makers to the public via the mass media has been a subject of major interest because of its implications for creating national variation in public understanding of a global environmental issue. however, to date, no study has assessed the situation in india. as one of the major emerging economies, and so one of the major greenhouse gas emitters, india is a key actor in the climate change story. this study analyses the four major, national circulation english-language newspapers to quantify and qualify the frames through which climate change is represented in india. the results strongly contrast with previous studies from developed countries; by framing climate change along a 'risk-responsibility divide', the indian national press set up a strongly nationalistic position on climate change that divides the issue along both developmental and postcolonial lines. 1 india is the world's largest democracy. it is a country with a vibrant civil society in which free speech and public debate are proudly exercised to the full. accordingly, public understanding and opinion are highly significant; those who shape public knowledge and perceptions are those who play a major role in defining the country's course of action in india, particularly in the shaping of governmental policy (sonwalkar 2002 ). this paper investigates the role of the media in shaping the climate
What does points and bars means at NAO effects?
points and bars: estimated slope and 95% bootstrap confidence limits for spatially varying nao effect (eq. 2; fig. 4
fig. 5. temporal change in the impact of the north atlantic oscillation (nao) on cod recruitment (loge[r/ssb]; r: annual number of recruits, ssb: spawning stock biomass). the effect of nao is modelled to be linear for any given location and year, but the slope of the effect may vary spatially and temporally. bold and broken lines: estimated slope and 95% bootstrap confidence bands for spatially and temporally varying nao effect (eq. 3). points and bars: estimated slope and 95% bootstrap confidence limits for spatially varying nao effect (eq. 2; fig. 4). thin lines: pearson's coefficients of correlation between january to june sea surface temperature (sst) at the spawning location +-2deg and the nao index in 15 yr moving frames centred at the years indicated mar ecol prog ser 325: 227-241, 2006
What is RMSS?
the uncertainties stored in swoosh for each species are the root-mean-sum-of-squares (rmss
Is SWOOSH produced on horizontal or vertical grids, or both?
swoosh is produced on several different horizontal and vertical grids to serve different user needs
swoosh is produced on several different horizontal and vertical grids to serve different user needs. for a given horizontal/vertical swoosh grid (summarized in table 4), the data from all species and satellites are stored in a single file with a monthly time resolution. on each horizontal grid for each species/satellite/month, swoosh contains several different monthly statistics, including the mean mixing ratio for both the "raw" and "adjusted" versions of the data, the number of profiles, their standard deviation, and a measure of the combined retrieval (precision) and offset uncertainties. the uncertainties stored in swoosh for each species are the root-mean-sum-of-squares (rmss) combination of the retrieval precision uncertainty and offset adjustment uncertainty. a derivation and description of the swoosh source record uncertainty estimates is provided in appendix b.
What can midlatitude SW anomalies contribute to over the Southern Ocean?
these midlatitude sw anomalies could contribute to the poleward shift of the maximum meridional surface temperature gradient and eddy-driven jet over the southern ocean (grise et al. 2013; see also ceppi et al. 2012
What happens to LW and SW anomalies at high latitudes?
at high latitudes, anomalies in the lw and sw largely cancel one another, resulting in a small positive total (lw
the shortwave (sw) cloud-induced radiation anomalies (figure 7(b)) are a reflection of changes in the total cloud fraction, which are dominated by highand mid-level cloud changes in the cam3. accordingly, subtropical and polar regions with increased highand mid-level cloudiness are characterized by a reduction in the absorbed solar radiation (asr) within the atmosphere-surface column (i.e. negative toa sw anomalies). in contrast, asr increases substantially at midlatitudes in association with reduced highand mid-level cloud amounts. these midlatitude sw anomalies could contribute to the poleward shift of the maximum meridional surface temperature gradient and eddy-driven jet over the southern ocean (grise et al. 2013; see also ceppi et al. 2012). the zonal-mean cloud-induced radiation anomalies are shown in figure 7(c). at high latitudes, anomalies in the lw and sw largely cancel one another, resulting in a small positive total (lw
What was the first reaction of the Tlingit residents?
the tlingit residents (members of the chookaneidi clan) were so alarmed by the strangers that they insulted and dismissed them, forfeiting their opportunity to participate in what would become a flourishing trade (1909:160, 333
What was the result of the trade with the Kaagwaantaan clan?
the kaagwaantaan clan hosts were more welcoming and profited so much from their trade with the athapaskans that they were able to build a large, eight-beamed shadow house that took a year to complete
Where did the Kaagwaantaan go after the dispersal of house groups?
the kaagwaantaan went to ground hog bay
after two years, kaakiex'wti proposed that his athapaskan in-laws accompany him back to his coastal home to initiate more systematic trade. they gathered "small coppers" and set off. at the first place he stopped, they had a rude shock. the tlingit residents (members of the chookaneidi clan) were so alarmed by the strangers that they insulted and dismissed them, forfeiting their opportunity to participate in what would become a flourishing trade (1909:160, 333). persevering, the party crossed another glacier above cross sound and reached a kaagwaantaan settlement on cross sound called "sand hill town." thornton (1997:300) identifies this as l'eiwshashakee aan 'town on the glacial sand cutbacks,' located at bartlett cove near the site of the presentday glacier bay national park visitor centre. the kaagwaantaan clan hosts were more welcoming and profited so much from their trade with the athapaskans that they were able to build a large, eight-beamed shadow house that took a year to complete. "the house was so big that a person who walked in front of it always appeared small, and when he entered, one had to speak loudly to be heard across" (swanton, 1909:334-336). yet just a year later, deikinaak'w continued, shadow house was entirely crushed by an advancing glacier when a young, secluded menstruant angered it by speaking carelessly. "this girl said to the glacier, 'would that that glacier were my father's,' and during that night it began to grow out over their new house. it extended itself far out over the town, and the people fled from it..." (swanton, 1909:337-338). the story also merges with one told more recently by two elders from the chookaneidi clan, susie james (in 1972) and amy marvin (in 1984), recorded in tlingit and translated by nora dauenhauer (dauenhauer and dauenhauer, 1987:244-291; and notes 407-431). each insists, as part of her story, that the kaagwaantaan clan was a mere house group within the chookaneidi clan at this time and achieved independent clan status only after this glacial advance displaced them all. geologist ross powell (1995) also points out that during the little ice age, while glaciers in the rest of the world advanced only several hundred meters, those in the glacier bay ice field system experienced at least 80 km of terminus advance. narratives told by susie james and amy marvin bring us closer to the heart of questions regarding the social consequences of climate change, because both take as their central theme issues of social responsibility. in each version, just as swanton heard, a secluded young menstruant foolishly calls out to the glacier as though her words had no consequences, triggering the advance that destroys the village. the story's impact lies in the choices people are forced to make instantaneously as the glacier advances with alarming speed. in one version, the girl's grandmother insists that she will remain at the site so that her grandchild can go on to bear children, so crucial for the survival of the clan. in effect, she takes responsibility for the younger woman's flippant words. in the other version, the young woman insists on remaining herself, accepting full responsibility for her actions and unwilling to face the shame of living with the consequences that her actions have unleashed on others. whatever the outcome, the image of the "woman in the glacier" remains the embodiment of the chookaneidi title to glacier bay, a claim clan members say is verified by the fact that they "paid for" this place with the blood of their ancestor, the woman in the glacier. amy martin concludes with the dispersal of house groups that were to become separate clans. "the kaagwaantaan went to ground hog bay. i guess it's called grouse fort.... as for us [chookaneidi], we continued away from them..." (dauenhauer and dauenhauer, 1987:289). glaciation here has erased most remains of ancient settlements, and isostatic rebound and tectonic uplift make other sites hard to locate (schroeder, 1995:279).
What is the purpose of examining relationships?
our purpose was to examine the relationship between transformational leadership and climate for organizational innovation, and the extent to which a competitive, performance-oriented organizational culture mediates this relationship
What are Articulates Vision and Provides Support examples of?
two of the six transformational leadership factors, namely, articulates vision and provides individual support, were positively related to climate for organizational innovation
What are the findings of the study?
the findings of this study are consistent with research that indicates that vision is a major facet of transformational leadership and is strongly associated with organizational culture
in this article, a theoretical model of the relationships among transformational leadership, organizational culture, and climate for organizational innovation was developed and tested. our purpose was to examine the relationship between transformational leadership and climate for organizational innovation, and the extent to which a competitive, performance-oriented organizational culture mediates this relationship. the findings of this study make a contribution to understanding the linkages among these theoretical constructs. two of the six transformational leadership factors, namely, articulates vision and provides individual support, were positively related to climate for organizational innovation. contrary to hypothesis 1, the transformational leadership factor of intellectual stimulation did not have the strongest relationship with climate for organizational innovation. indeed, the strongest relationship was found for the leadership factor of articulates vision. as expected, the leadership factor most strongly related to a competitive, performance-oriented organizational culture was articulates vision (hypothesis 2). we also found that the transformational leadership factor setting high performance expectations was positively related to organizational culture, in support of hypothesis 3. finally, we found that a competitive, performanceoriented organizational culture was strongly related to climate for organizational innovation (hypothesis 4) and mediated the relationship between three of the transformational leadership factors and climate for organizational innovation (hypothesis 5). the findings of this study are consistent with research that indicates that vision is a major facet of transformational leadership and is strongly associated with organizational culture (antonakis house, 2002; bass avolio, 1989; deal kennedy, 1982;
What wil affect agricultural growth an economic development?
increased rainfall
In the absence of information concerning the nature of increases in rainfall variability in the coming decades, one question that might be asked is, how sensitive are the data in Table 3 to shifts in rainfall variability? How did we test this?
to test this, we made several changes across the board to rainfall cv and then re-stratified the data
What does a +2 percentage of rainfall leads to?
a +2 percentage point increase in annual rainfall cv leads to increases in the population living in areas of high rainfall
we can show that increased rainfall variability will affect agricultural growth and economic development in certain types of countries (figure 2). the analysis presented above is highly simplified, as there are many other factors and drivers that will interact in complex ways, but there may also be impacts of increased rainfall variability on food security as shown by a proxy such as the prevalence of child malnutrition (table 3). in the absence of information concerning the nature of increases in rainfall variability in the coming decades, one question that might be asked is, how sensitive are the data in table 3 to shifts in rainfall variability? to test this, we made several changes across the board to rainfall cv and then re-stratified the data. results are shown in figure 3, in terms of population by rainfall cv, for the developing world and the developed world, for "current" conditions and for situations with decreased (-1 per cent) and increased (+1 per cent and +2 percent) rainfall variability while the likelihood of such changes is essentially unknown, a +2 percentage point increase in annual rainfall cv leads to increases in the population living in areas of high rainfall
Which papers did cover the news Carvalho was arguing?
the papers covered were the daily telegraph, the times, the guardian, the independent, and all associated sunday papers. carvalho (2005; 2007) analysed articles from the last three of these papers, arguing that they represented the crossspectrum of political ideologies, set the agenda for other papers, and that the debate on climate change was excessively simplified or excluded in other papers
What is largely excluded in the tabloids?
while it seems likely that the climate change debate is simplified or largely excluded in the tabloids, it would still be interesting to analyse the discourses present in the financial times, the mid-market and tabloid 10 press
What did Carvalho tried to omit?
her omission of the daily telegraph coverage seemed to negate her proposition that the full political spectrum was covered, so this was included for analysis within this research
the papers covered were the daily telegraph, the times, the guardian, the independent, and all associated sunday papers. carvalho (2005; 2007) analysed articles from the last three of these papers, arguing that they represented the crossspectrum of political ideologies, set the agenda for other papers, and that the debate on climate change was excessively simplified or excluded in other papers. her omission of the daily telegraph coverage seemed to negate her proposition that the full political spectrum was covered, so this was included for analysis within this research. while it seems likely that the climate change debate is simplified or largely excluded in the tabloids, it would still be interesting to analyse the discourses present in the financial times, the mid-market and tabloid 10 press. these, however, were excluded in this research to keep the size of the database at an easily manageable level.
what maintain easy access to the palms for harvesting and inhibit competition between the palms and other plants?
periodic herbicide applications
what can be cultivated to minimize erosion and hold water close to the palms ?
small ferns or leguminous nitrogen-fixing species
oil palm is continually managed in evenly spaced monocultures without overstory shade trees, which limits the capacity of characteristic forest habitat features to develop. at the local scale, periodic herbicide applications commonly maintain easy access to the palms for harvesting and inhibit competition between the palms and other plants corley tinker 2003 ). alternatively, beneficial groundcover such as small ferns or leguminous nitrogen-fixing species may be cultivated to minimize erosion and hold water close to the palms corley tinker 2003; koh 2008 ). trimmed palm leaves are stacked in large piles beneath the oil palms, which creates a patchy environment of leaf litter. the process of trimming leaves to harvest fruit bunches creates stubs that protrude 10-30 cm upwards from palm trunks. these stubs act as "pots" that collect organic matter where epiphytes then grow. epiphytes are ubiquitous in oil palm plantations and can support epiphyte-associated species. however, the majority of epiphytes in plantations are exotic species danielsen et al. 2009; fayle et al. 2010 ).
What do some authors point out?
some authors also point out the need and opportunity in the recovery phase from floods to invest in long-term sanitation provision
Where are the water and sanitation issues entwined?
water and sanitation issues are so entwined, especially in urban areas, that they need to be considered together
Where did the comparative study of water quality in flooded tubewells and other resources take place ?
normally-safe water sources that become flooded may still remain less contaminated than alternative non-flooded, but unprotected, water sources - as shown by a comparative study of water quality in flooded tubewells and other surface sources in bangladesh (mccluskey, 2001
some authors also point out the need and opportunity in the recovery phase from floods to invest in long-term sanitation provision. hoque et al. (1993, p150), for example, claim: 'it is also important that aid for the reconstruction of damaged houses be used to promote the construction of sanitary latrines'. the agua para sechura project, prompted by floods in 1983, provided the first sanitation system for the town of sechura on the arid coast of peru (maber, 1989). however, it was not considered feasible or appropriate to install full sewerage when there would never be sufficient water for a flush-system to work. the response instead was to provide public latrines first and then offer credit for self-help groups to build domestic models. issues in water and sanitation response to floods perhaps the first issue to stress is that those planning for and managing water and sanitation systems during times of flooding need to take a broad, integrated perspective on response options. the paper by mccluskey (2001) neatly summarizes some key points, two of which we highlight here. first, concentrating effort on providing supplies of clean water is not enough if parallel transmission routes for disease exist because of disrupted waste disposal systems. water and sanitation issues are so entwined, especially in urban areas, that they need to be considered together. second, levels of contamination of water sources during floods must be put into context. normally-safe water sources that become flooded may still remain less contaminated than alternative non-flooded, but unprotected, water sources - as shown by a comparative study of water quality in flooded tubewells and other surface sources in bangladesh (mccluskey, 2001). this needs to be borne in mind when decisions are taken on closing down water systems for disinfection during the emergency phase of floods. in relief interventions relating to water and sanitation, agencies also need to remain flexible in approach to ensure their actions are properly targeted and appropriate to the situation. in bangladesh in 1998, though nishat et al. (2000) found that most people in their study knew about water contamination and only 2% reported drinking untreated floodwater, others suggest there is a major problem for some population sectors over use of unsafe water for drinking, caused often by lack of choice rather than lack of understanding. roger young and associates (2000) especially make the case for relief agencies to target elderly people who are confined to houses during high floods. they report cases where such people drank untreated floodwater because they were not strong enough to reach sources or could not afford to hire boat transport. lack of fuel during the 1998 bangladesh flood in rural areas (where people are mainly dependent on firewood) also meant boiling water often was not feasible. the scale of the problem and difficulties with the taste and quality of available purification tablets, forced a rethink in relief actions by ngos toward cure rather than prevention of waterborne disease. 'finding that the scale of impure drinking water could not be addressed by purification measures, agencies promoted the wide-spread use of rehydration salts, distributing ors packets with the relief supplies and mobilizing thousands of volunteers in all parts of the country to prepare and package ors' (roger young and associates, 2000, p21).
The product of the individual daily indicators for minimum temperature, VPD, and photoperiod forms a single metric which can be monitored for?
canopy greenness
The GSI is a daily indicator of what parameter?
the relative constraints to foliar canopy development or maintenance due to climatic limits
what is the function of the moving average?
serves to buffer single extreme events from prematurely triggering canopy changes
the product of the individual daily indicators for minimum temperature, vpd, and photoperiod forms a single metric which can be monitored for canopy greenness, hereafter referred to as the gsi. the gsi is a daily indicator of the relative constraints to foliar canopy development or maintenance due to climatic limits. it is continuous but bounded between 0 (inactive) and 1 (unconstrained). the daily metric igsi is calculated as follows: igsi  1/4  itmin  ivpd  iphoto d 4 th where igsi is the daily gsi, itmin is the minimum temperature indicator, ivpd is the vpd indicator, and iphoto is the photoperiod indicator. the daily gsi is then calculated as the 21-day moving average of daily indicator, igsi for all sites. the moving average serves to buffer single extreme events from prematurely triggering canopy changes.
Which transformations Energy systems in Germany and in all western OECD countries are currently undergoing?
energy systems in germany and in all western oecd countries are currently undergoing transformations that have profound implications for their urban and regional governance, as well as for regional development in general
Which reconfiguring patterns of governance within cities and regions are undergoing?
new technologies, regulatory regimes, management styles, marketing strategies and environmental priorities have emerged, dramatically reconfiguring patterns of governance within cities and regions
What changing the conditions of regional governance and energy planning?
the privatization of the energy utilities and of many public services, the opening of the regional energy markets, public and private climate protection initiatives and the emergence of new market participants are radically changing the conditions of regional governance and energy planning
energy systems in germany and in all western oecd countries are currently undergoing transformations that have profound implications for their urban and regional governance, as well as for regional development in general. new technologies, regulatory regimes, management styles, marketing strategies and environmental priorities have emerged, dramatically reconfiguring patterns of governance within cities and regions. this is particularly obvious in the city region of berlin, where utility restructuring coincides with a dramatic fiscal crisis in the city. the privatization of the energy utilities and of many public services, the opening of the regional energy markets, public and private climate protection initiatives and the emergence of new market participants are radically changing the conditions of regional governance and energy planning. however, although substantial recasting of policy issues and traditional forms of governance in the energy sector is underway in berlin, energy management is confronted with severe institutional problems of interpolicy coordination and regional cooperation, entrepreneurial governance and contract management. thus, this article argues in favour of new policy approaches and institutional reforms to shape the development of energy networks according to local and regional sustainability needs.
What is the role of mobile extratropical cyclones? Play a dominant role in the climate in mid and high latitudes
the mobile extratropical cyclones play a dominant role in the climate at middle and high latitudes
What will happen if there is any systematic change in intensity? any change will consequently have a far-reaching influence on the local climate
any systematic change in the intensity, frequency, or position of the storm tracks will consequently have a far-reaching influence on the local climate
What has been observed in previous studies? that Atlantic cyclones often moved on favorite trails
it was noted in earlier studies (van loon and rogers 1978, and references therein) that the atlantic cyclones often moved in preferred tracks
the mobile extratropical cyclones play a dominant role in the climate at middle and high latitudes: first, by having a primary role in determining the local weather and its typical variation and thereby exercising a strong influence on precipitation, cloudiness, and radiation and their variation in time and space; second, by having an important role in the general circulation of the atmosphere via their strong influence on the vertical and horizontal exchange of heat, water vapor, and momentum; and third, by interacting with the large-scale atmospheric centers of action such as blocking and other semistationary patterns that may dominate the regional weather on the time scales of weeks (lau 1988; ting and held 1990). any systematic change in the intensity, frequency, or position of the storm tracks will consequently have a far-reaching influence on the local climate. the climate of europe, for example, is strongly dominated by the mobile cyclones. it was noted in earlier studies (van loon and rogers 1978, and references therein) that the atlantic cyclones often moved in preferred tracks, either in a northeasterly direction over the norwegian sea bringing heavy precipitation to northwestern europe and generally mild weather for most areas, or on a more southerly track with high precipitation in southern europe and at least during the winter period bringing cold weather to northern europe. these fluctuations in the storm tracks are related to variations in the large-scale atmospheric circulation, such as the north atlantic oscillation (nao; rogers
What is appointed in the text as one of the most exhaustive and detailed climatic databases currently available?
human nasal cavity and climate adaptation american journal of physical anthropology past thousands of years, during which time the differentiation of the modern human groups examined took place, it is among the most exhaustive and detailed climatic databases currently available
What was the data for?
the data were obtained for the geographical location of each individual cranium, but when no exact provenance is known an area rather than single location was used to represent the region of origin of that specimen
Which values were calculated for each species?
for each specimen the following values were calculated: mean yearly temperature (tmean), coldest monthly temperature (tmin), warmest monthly temperature (tmax), mean yearly vapor pressure (vpmean), lowest monthly vapor pressure (vpmin), and highest monthly vapor pressure (vpmax). subsequently, sample means of the six variables were calculated for each of the 10 populations
human nasal cavity and climate adaptation american journal of physical anthropology past thousands of years, during which time the differentiation of the modern human groups examined took place, it is among the most exhaustive and detailed climatic databases currently available. the data were obtained for the geographical location of each individual cranium, but when no exact provenance is known an area rather than single location was used to represent the region of origin of that specimen. for each specimen the following values were calculated: mean yearly temperature (tmean), coldest monthly temperature (tmin), warmest monthly temperature (tmax), mean yearly vapor pressure (vpmean), lowest monthly vapor pressure (vpmin), and highest monthly vapor pressure (vpmax). subsequently, sample means of the six variables were calculated for each of the 10 populations.
What does Fig. 1 display?
fig. 1. schematic diagrams showing the exchanges between the atmosphere, sea ice and ocean models in hadgem3
What is added directly to the fluc affecting the sea surface height?
the rainfall fraction is added directly to the flux a ff ecting the sea surface height
What will affect the sea surface height?
evaporation/sublimation on sea ice will a ff ect the sea surface height albeit only by a small amount
fig. 1. schematic diagrams showing the exchanges between the atmosphere, sea ice and ocean models in hadgem3 of: (a) heat; and (b) freshwater. all downwards fluxes are defined as positive. (1) evaporation/sublimation on sea ice will a ff ect the sea surface height albeit only by a small amount. this e ff ect is currently not included in hadgem3 but will be added in future developments. (2) the fraction of snowfall that falls on the sea ice will have an immediate impact on the sea surface height and is added to this ocean flux. the snow landing on the ice will not a ff ect the sea surface salinity until it melts, at which point the snow melt is included in the ice-ocean freshwater flux term. (3) the fraction of rainfall that falls on the sea ice is assumed to drain immediately to the leads and therefore simultaneously impacts both salinity and sea surface height. the rainfall fraction is added directly to the flux a ff ecting the sea surface height. it is also passed to the sea ice model where it is added into the ice-ocean freshwater flux which then contributes to the flux a ff ecting sea surface salinity.
How the shorter timescale climatic fluctuations will impact the water table?
shorter timescale climatic fluctuations, such as at interannual, seasonal, diurnal, and event scales, will cause the water table to rise and fall, small wavelength signals riding on top of the equilibrium surface
Why is this equilibrium table important?
this equilibrium water table is important for two reasons. first, it is useful for portraying the first-order spatial variability in the water table height as a function of its primary controls: the climate and the geology. roughly speaking, the climate at a location determines the vertical flux across the water table, and the geology determines the lateral flow below the water table. this first-order spatial variability will help identify regions where the water table may contribute to the water balance near the land surface. second, it is useful for estimating the hydraulic parameters needed for modeling groundwater flow
we introduce the concept of an equilibrium water table, defined as the climatologic mean water table, a result of long-term mass balance between two fluxes: the vertical, atmospherically induced flux across the water table, and the lateral, topographically induced flow below and parallel to the water table. the result is a smooth and undulating surface beneath the land topography, occasionally appearing at the land surface as wetlands, rivers, and lakes in a humid climate, and deep below the land surface in an arid climate. shorter timescale climatic fluctuations, such as at interannual, seasonal, diurnal, and event scales, will cause the water table to rise and fall, small wavelength signals riding on top of the equilibrium surface. this equilibrium water table is important for two reasons. first, it is useful for portraying the first-order spatial variability in the water table height as a function of its primary controls: the climate and the geology. roughly speaking, the climate at a location determines the vertical flux across the water table, and the geology determines the lateral flow below the water table. this first-order spatial variability will help identify regions where the water table may contribute to the water balance near the land surface. second, it is useful for estimating the hydraulic parameters needed for modeling groundwater flow. one such parameter is the hydraulic conductivity k of sediments and bedrocks at greater depths beyond the existing soil database. it depends on the sediment-bedrock profile that reflects tectonics, weathering, and erosion-sedimentation in the past. another parameter, discussed later, is the river hydraulic connection to the groundwater, which establishes the rivers as primary drainage for groundwater in humid regions. it depends on stream network morphology such as drainage density and valley slope [e.g., troch et al. 1995; wood 2002]. both parameters are the result of long-term landscape evolution from complex interactions among climate, geology, and biota, and they are likely ''tuned'' to balance the drainage needs of the land. a humid climate plus a gentle relief likely produces a deeply weathered soil mantle, favoring groundwater flow and sustaining streamflow as its primary drainage; an arid climate plus steep terrain will likely lead to a shallow regolith (loose material), favoring surface runoff. thus these hydraulic parameters are likely linked to the hydrologic equilibrium in a given climatic and geologic setting. the equilibrium water table, once found, can be used to estimate these parameters, a common proposition in solving inverse problems. thus we will make an attempt to establish this equilibrium water table, based on physical principles of groundwater flow and constrained by the large number of observations discussed earlier, as a means of estimating these hydraulic parameters as well as portraying the inherent spatial patterns in the water table position. 3.1. groundwater mass balance and river flow we use a two-dimensional (lateral flow only) and steady state (equilibrium) groundwater flow model to estimate the equilibrium water table, hereafter referred to as ewt, over north america. the model domain is shown in figure 5. the land elevation spans a range from below sea level to over 4,000 m, and the climate from superhumid (annual rainfall 4500 mm) to arid (annual rainfall 100 mm). this wide range of geologic-climatic conditions, figure 5. model domain over north america, color scheme giving land surface elevation in m.
What are included in dominant research themes?
dominant research themes have included the characterization and analyses of fire frequencies across ranges of topographic settings and habitats
What facilitates historical fire climatology?
the seasonal to annual resolution of tree rings facilitates historical fire climatology
Where is the importance of climatic influence reflected?
the importance of climatic influence is reflected in the degree of synchrony in specific fire events and decadal to centennial trends among widely distributed sites
most of the fire history research conducted in the past century has focused on case studies and local-scale assessments of pattern and process, with an emphasis on describing typical fire frequencies in forest stands and watersheds. dominant research themes have included the characterization and analyses of fire frequencies across ranges of topographic settings and habitats. in general, these "histories" have been more about describing time-averaged processes, than elucidating the events, narratives, and contingencies of "history." now that many crossdated fire chronologies have been developed from tree-ring analyses of firescarred trees, it is possible to assemble regional to global-scale networks of fire occurrence time series. these networks and time series can be used in quantitative, historical analyses that identify and separate broad-scale climate-driven patterns of fire occurrence from local, nonclimatic features of individual sites. the seasonal to annual resolution of tree rings facilitates historical fire climatology because the high temporal resolution of these data allows us to connect multiple events in space and time. the importance of climatic influence is reflected in the degree of synchrony in specific fire events and decadal to centennial trends among widely distributed sites (swetnam and betancourt 1990, 1998; swetnam 1993; veblen et al. 1999; veblen, kitzberger, and donnegan 2000; grissinomayer and swetnam 1997, 2000; heyerdahl, brubaker, and agee 2001, in press; kitzberger and veblen 1998; kitzberger, veblen, and villalba 1997; kitzberger, swetnam, and veblen 2001; brown, kaufmann, and shepperd 1999; brown et al. 2001; allen 2002).
What do the Safety Climate and the Theory of Planned Behaviour 7 Path Analysis Amos 4.01 (Arbuckle, 1999) was used to?
safety climate and the theory of planned behaviour 7 path analysis amos 4.01 (arbuckle, 1999) was used to test the fit of the path model shown in figure 3 to the covariance matrix generated from the set of six variables
What do the main changes required?
the main changes required were to the section of the model dealing with the relations among own attitudes, group norms, and work pressures where the spurious contribution of management attitudes failed to give an adequate account of these relations
Why was the model modified?
the model was modified to show group norms contributing to own attitudes and also to work pressures
safety climate and the theory of planned behaviour 7 path analysis amos 4.01 (arbuckle, 1999) was used to test the fit of the path model shown in figure 3 to the covariance matrix generated from the set of six variables. initial fit statistics were unsatisfactory: kh2 (7, n 308) 99.59, p .00; tli .70; cfi .88; rmsea .22. revisions were made on the basis of modification indices and theoretical considerations. the main changes required were to the section of the model dealing with the relations among own attitudes, group norms, and work pressures where the spurious contribution of management attitudes failed to give an adequate account of these relations. the model was modified to show group norms contributing to own attitudes and also to work pressures. direct pathways were also fitted from own attitude and group norms to violations. the direct pathway from management attitude to violations was deleted but all other pathways were left. the resulting model is shown in figure 4.
Where do the challenges come from?
from the uncertainties of future demographic changes
What will increase the proportion of the population at risk?
growing numbers of older adults
What does the elderly have besides the diminished physiological capacity to deal with heat?
the elderly are more likely to live alone, have reduced social contacts, and experience poor health
challenges also arise from the uncertainties of future demographic changes that will modify the future sensitivity of populations to heat stress. growing numbers of older adults will increase the proportion of the population at risk (kovats and hajat 2008; luber and mcgeehin 2008; o'neill and ebi 2009). as well as having a diminished physiological ability to cope with heat, the elderly are more likely to live alone, have reduced social contacts, and experience poor health (hajat et al. 2010a). also, the effects of heat on mortality appear sometimes to be greater in women, especially elderly women (ishigami et al. 2008; vaneckova et al. 2008a).
EXPLAIN DYNAMIC DOWNSCALING?
similar additional studies are needed to answer the question whether this holds (and if so under what conditions) for type 3 (definition [see castro et al. 2005]) dynamic downscaling, as any real-world observational constraint on the simulation becomes less than with type 2, and for type 4 simulations, does not even exist at all. to prove this the experiments need to be done with dynamical downscaling of higher orders (i.e., gcm data
EXPLAIN CONDITIONS FOR REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL?
this is a question for future investigation-that is urgently needed. it is not included in the present article which is primarily to confirm the behavior described by castro et al. [2005] with a different model system. acknowledgments. we are grateful to ecmwf for using the era-40 as boundary conditions for our regional climate model
ELABORATE Geoscience/Atmospheric Research?
the part of this research performed by chris castro, giovanni leoncini, and roger pielke sr. was funded in part by noaa grant na17rj1228 amendment 6, nasa grant ngt5-30344, and u.s. department of defense center for geoscience/atmospheric research grant at colorado state university (under cooperative agreement w911nf-06-2-001 and daad190220005 with the army research laboratory). r.a. pielke sr. was also supported on this study through the university of colorado in boulder (cires/atoc
similar additional studies are needed to answer the question whether this holds (and if so under what conditions) for type 3 (definition [see castro et al. 2005]) dynamic downscaling, as any real-world observational constraint on the simulation becomes less than with type 2, and for type 4 simulations, does not even exist at all. to prove this the experiments need to be done with dynamical downscaling of higher orders (i.e., gcm data). this is a question for future investigation-that is urgently needed. it is not included in the present article which is primarily to confirm the behavior described by castro et al. [2005] with a different model system. acknowledgments. we are grateful to ecmwf for using the era-40 as boundary conditions for our regional climate model. the part of this research performed by chris castro, giovanni leoncini, and roger pielke sr. was funded in part by noaa grant na17rj1228 amendment 6, nasa grant ngt5-30344, and u.s. department of defense center for geoscience/atmospheric research grant at colorado state university (under cooperative agreement w911nf-06-2-001 and daad190220005 with the army research laboratory). r.a. pielke sr. was also supported on this study through the university of colorado in boulder (cires/atoc).
What is Twitter hahtag?
the twitter hashtag, as opposed to profile feed, is particularly interesting from the perspective of this article as it suggests the contours of a network cutting across (and beyond) the protest space. unlike the profile feed, which is controlled by a particular actor, the communitygenerated hashtag convention allows anyone to use a hashtag for any tweeted message whatsoever
What is the role of hyperlinks within the hashtags?
hyperlinks play an important role within these hashtag streams. in line with the perspective sketched in the previous section, we suggest looking at links not just with respect to information flow but also in their role as organizing mechanisms, and more ly as windows on surrounding players and links among diverse information flows
Hyperlinks play an important _______ within the hashtag streams.
role
a twitter stream can be conceived as a cross-cutting transmission belt connecting diverse users, uses and different temporal and spatial regions of the protest space. the twitter hashtag, as opposed to profile feed, is particularly interesting from the perspective of this article as it suggests the contours of a network cutting across (and beyond) the protest space. unlike the profile feed, which is controlled by a particular actor, the communitygenerated hashtag convention allows anyone to use a hashtag for any tweeted message whatsoever. hashtagged messages--and their retweets-- may disperse widely in unpremeditated combinations across a variety of feeds and networks. hyperlinks play an important role within these hashtag streams. in line with the perspective sketched in the previous section, we suggest looking at links not just with respect to information flow but also in their role as organizing mechanisms, and more ly as windows on surrounding players and links among diverse information flows. in the first instance, this entails viewing links from the perspective of how they may structure and alert members of social networks to particular slices of the protest space. this draws on previous work that has explored how hyperlinks on organization websites
As a major factor, gender equality serves for what in disaster situations?
gender inequality is a major factor contributing to the increased vulnerability of women and girls in disaster situations, such as hurricanes mitch and katrina and flooding in south and east asia, that are being increasing linked to climate change
How many times women and children are more likely to die than men during disasters?
according to a recent report from the world conservation union/ women's environment and development organization (iucn/wedo), women and children are 14 times more likely to die than men during disasters (iucn/wedo 2007
What important lessons does the tsunami provide?
while the tsunami was not directly related to climate change, it does provide important lessons about the impacts of a large scale disaster and the effectiveness of responses
gender inequality is a major factor contributing to the increased vulnerability of women and girls in disaster situations, such as hurricanes mitch and katrina and flooding in south and east asia, that are being increasing linked to climate change. according to a recent report from the world conservation union/ women's environment and development organization (iucn/wedo), women and children are 14 times more likely to die than men during disasters (iucn/wedo 2007). gender and age differentials in mortality rates were strikingly apparent in the aftermath of the asian tsunami where the largest numbers of fatalities were women and children under the age of 15 (synthesis report of the tsunami evaluation coalition, in mitchell et al 2008). while the tsunami was not directly related to climate change, it does provide important lessons about the impacts of a large scale disaster and the effectiveness of responses. women and girls' particular vulnerability is due to a combination of factors, including differences in socialisation where girls are not equipped with the same skills as their brothers, such as swimming and tree climbing. for example, it has been documented that women in bangladesh did not leave their houses during floods due to cultural constraints on female mobility and those who did were unable to swim in the flood waters (see the box below).
What requires modeling the biogeographic consequences of climate change? Requires confidence in model predictions under new conditions
modeling the biogeographic consequences of climate change requires confidence in model predictions under novel conditions
Are the models of the biogeographic consequences of climate change reliable? Not sometimes they fail
however, models often fail when extended to new locales
An alternative explanation was explored and what was proposed - a method to predict the probability of failure based on curves of physiological performance and environmental variance
we explore an alternative explanation and propose a method for predicting the likelihood of failure based on physiological performance curves and environmental variance in the original and new environments
modeling the biogeographic consequences of climate change requires confidence in model predictions under novel conditions. however, models often fail when extended to new locales, and such instances have been used as evidence of a change in physiological tolerance, that is, a fundamental niche shift. we explore an alternative explanation and propose a method for predicting the likelihood of failure based on physiological performance curves and environmental variance in the original and new environments. we define the transient event margin (tem) as the gap between energetic performance failure, defined as ctmax, and the upper lethal limit, defined as ltmax. if tem is large relative to environmental fluctuations, models will likely fail in new locales. if tem is small relative to environmental fluctuations, models are likely to be robust for new locales, even when mechanism is unknown. using temperature, we predict when biogeographic models are likely to fail and illustrate this with a case study. we suggest that failure is predictable from an understanding of how climate drives nonlethal physiological responses, but for many species such data have not been collected. successful biogeographic forecasting thus depends on understanding when the mechanisms limiting distribution of a species will differ among geographic regions, or at different times, resulting in realized niche shifts. tem allows prediction of the likelihood of such model failure.
How large is Otago Harbour?
approximately 20 km long and about 2-3 km wide on average
are parasites common among the invertebrates on the Otago Harbour mudflats?
for macroparasites the answer is yes, with trematodes being particularly abundant
How much of the mudsnail Zeacumantus subcarinatus are infected?
in many populations of the mudsnail zeacumantus subcarinatus an abundant grazer of microalgae throughout otago harbour, more than half of the population is infected by the microphallid
earlier reviews have argued that parasites play major roles in intertidal ecosystems (lauckner, 1987; sousa, 1991; mouritsen poulin, 2002b). here, the importance of parasites is illustrated using the soft-sediment intertidal communities of otago harbour (south island, new zealand) as a case study. otago harbour is approximately 20 km long and about 2-3 km wide on average, and it consists of several sheltered bays that have been the subject of numerous ecological and parasitological studies over the past several years. for parasites to be important determinants of community structure, they must be relatively abundant, and their impact must extend to a level beyond that of the individual host, i.e. to the population or community. these two issues are addressed in turn. first, are parasites common among the invertebrates on the otago harbour mudflats? for macroparasites the answer is yes, with trematodes being particularly abundant. trematodes use a mollusc, usually a gastropod, as first intermediate host in their complex life cycle; cercariae produced in the first intermediate host generally go on to encyst in a second intermediate host, before the cycle is completed via trophic transmission to a vertebrate definitive host. table 1 lists all the mollusc species from otago harbour soft-sediment flats that have an adult shell length greater than 5 mm. without exception, each mollusc species serves as first intermediate host to at least one trematode species. this is not surprising, as trematodes are known to infect most major gastropod taxa around the world (see pechenik et al. 2001). in most cases, the prevalence of infection is rather low, with fewer than 10% of individuals in a population infected by trematodes (table 1). this is typical of the values found in other surveys from around the globe (poulin mouritsen, 2003). however, in many populations of the mudsnail zeacumantus subcarinatus an abundant grazer of microalgae throughout otago harbour, more than half of the population is infected by the microphallid
what is the current GWP value?
gwp is currently $35 trillion a year
What is the GWP expansion rate per year?
2-4% per year
What The Stern review 9 described?
a range of economic policies for the mitigation of and adaption to climate change
the stern review9 described a range of economic policies for the mitigation of and adaption to climate change. it estimated that to deploy low-carbon technologies on the scale required to stabilise carbon dioxide equivalent (co2e) concentrations at under 550 parts per million (ppm) would entail an incremental cost in the range -1% to 3*5% of gwp a year. this wide range refl ects the uncertainties about the future costs of the alternatives to fossil fuels and, equally, the future prices of fossil fuels themselves. high future prices for oil and gas, whether the product of international disputes or, in the case of oil, by "easy oil" (ie, oil that is easily found and extracted) running short, will make the alternatives increasingly attractive. the range is of course large in absolute terms (1% of gwp is projected to exceed $1 trillion per year by 2050), but small in relation to its expected growth over the next 40-50 years. gwp is currently $35 trillion a year but is expanding at 2-4% per year, and is expected to exceed $100 trillion a
Why wasn't Kyrgyzstan unable to turn the additional water release into income from the months April to September?
diverging prices
the implications are quite obvious: diverging prices have made it impossible for kyrgyzstan to turn the additional water release of 2.5 km3in the months from april- september into income from hydropower exports that could buy the equivalent (in terms of energy value) amount of energy from the downstream countries in the winter period.asshownintableii,thishasvirtuallystoppedkyrgyz electricity exports to the downstream countries. in summary, the institutional arrangements for water allocation in the syr darya have, thus far, failed to solve the problem. the reasons are multifaceted and at least in part due to the flawed design of the 1998 agreement, which clearly lacks robustness against hydrological variability and commodity price volatility. as climatic changes in central asia become more pronounced and, as a consequence, also greater hydrological uncertainty, it is widely feared that the current, dysfunctional approach to waterand energysharing will unravel completely and international disputes over water will escalate (swarup, 2009; hodgson, 2010; maplecroft, 2010; perelet, 2007). in the next section we thus examine how climate change could affect water availability in the syr darya.
Who is the "Goliath" of the soft drinks corporation?
the ' goliath ' of the major soft drinks corporation, hindustan coca-cola beverage
How much water was extracted from the Palakaad District?
510 kilolitres of water was extracted per day
What did the court conclude in regards the water?
the court held that the groundwater belongs to the general public and the company had no right to claim a huge share of it
here we have the problem of who owns the water in the ground, a question rather like who owns the air? one thing is for sure - that it is not coca-cola. in kochi, india, in december the local ' davids ' in the form of a group of villagers, took the ' goliath ' of the major soft drinks corporation, hindustan coca-cola beverages, to the kerala high court to direct it to stop drawing groundwater for use in its bottling plant at plachimedu in the palakaad district. david won, and the court directed the local council and the state government to ensure that the plant does not extract groundwater after a specified time. the court decreed that the groundwater beneath land is not owned by the landowner. normally, every landowner can draw a ' reasonable ' amount of groundwater which is necessary for their domestic and agricultural requirements. but here, 510 kilolitres of water was extracted per day, converted to products and transported out of the state, thus breaking the ' natural water cycle ' and causing the drying up of village fields for miles around the plant. extraction of the groundwater, even up to the admitted limit by the company, was illegal, the court held. the company had no legal right to extract this much natural wealth and the panchayat and the government were bound to prevent it. the court held that the groundwater belongs to the general public and the company had no right to claim a huge share of it. the government also has no power to allow a private party to extract such a huge quantity of groundwater, the result of which could be drying up of water tables. so let the buyer beware for high water use industries in the future. 11
define Hemer et al.14
hemer et al.14 (hereafter hea12) presented global wave climate projections derived using a dynamical approach
describe CMIP3 AOGCM
two cmip3 aogcms (csiro mk3.5 and echam5, under the sres a2 greenhouse gas emission scenario) were dynamically downscaled to 0.5deg resolution using csiro's cubic conformal atmospheric model
what Hemer et al.14 assessed
hemer et al.14 also assessed the influence of bias-adjusting forcing wind conditions
hemer et al.14 (hereafter hea12) presented global wave climate projections derived using a dynamical approach. two cmip3 aogcms (csiro mk3.5 and echam5, under the sres a2 greenhouse gas emission scenario) were dynamically downscaled to 0.5deg resolution using csiro's cubic conformal atmospheric model, with the only forcing parameter taken from the aogcm being bias-adjusted sea-surface temperatures. three-hourly surface (10-m) winds (and monthly mean seaice concentrations) were used to force a 1deg near-global implementation of the wavewatch iii spectral wave modelsm3 for 2 time-slices: 1979-2009 representing current climate, and 2070-2099 representing a future climate scenario. hemer et al.14 also assessed the influence of bias-adjusting forcing wind conditions. only climatologies derived from un-adjusted forcing are considered in this study.
What must a pragmatic approach include?
a pragmatic approach in this regard must also include (dis)incentives for adherence to recommendations aimed at mitigating specific problems
What isn't provided in the story?
it does not provide any understanding of the way(s) in which these perceptions can be the basis for action
What does understanding their relevance for action require?
understanding their relevance for action requires an understanding of how perceptions are imparted with political-economic valence (translated into politicaleconomic agendas
secondly, policy based solely on educating people (changing their models 'of' climate) as a means of generating consensus on the issue of global warming and its potential solution is not likely to go very far. a pragmatic approach in this regard must also include (dis)incentives for adherence to recommendations aimed at mitigating specific problems. thirdly, the story of climate change perceptions as told here is only half-complete because it does not provide any understanding of the way(s) in which these perceptions can be the basis for action. this part involves the embedding of these perceptions in regional discourses of farmer's rights. in other words, understanding their relevance for action requires an understanding of how perceptions are imparted with political-economic valence (translated into politicaleconomic agendas). the process involves 'continuous
Como chama o amostrador equipado com um tubo de 6 m de comprimento foi usado em Lac a la Pessiere.
mckereth
at lakes francis and pas-de-fond, lacustrine sediments were recovered from the frozen surface with a livingstone corer, whereas a mckereth sampler equipped with a 6-m length tube was used at lac a la pessiere. because neither corer allows sampling of the more recently accumulated material, the water-sediment interface was sampled using a kajak-brinkhurst (kb) gravity corer (to give 21 cm, 28 cm and 42 cm cores with intact water-sediment interfaces at francis, pas-de-fond and a la pessiere, respectively). the pair of cores for each site were cross-correlated by pollen analyses and loss-on-ignition (loi) measurements in order to estimate the thickness of the sediment missing from the surface of livingstone and mckereth cores.
Where are the Pilocene ice sheets predicted to be in the future
with these pdd values, we predict pliocene ice sheets which are smaller than pre-industrial over both greenland and north america
Did the results of the simulation show the ice volume greater in the closed seaway or open seaway
over greenland and north america combined, the total ice volume is greater in the closed seaway simulation than in the open seaway
What are the effects of melting ice sheets on our immediate environment
 there is a significant greenland ice sheet, albeit reduced in volume and extent relative to the presentday. this has the effect of cooling temperatures locally and most likely encouraging ice sheet inception
north american pre-industrial ice sheets we are able to restrict the pdd factors to their medium and high values. with these pdd values, we predict pliocene ice sheets which are smaller than pre-industrial over both greenland and north america. the ice volume over greenland in the pliocssimulation is greater than in the plioossimulation, whereas over north america it is less. over greenland and north america combined, the total ice volume is greater in the closed seaway simulation than in the open seaway. this total change is consistent with the ''panama hypothesis''; however, the net change in sea level is small--just 6 cm in the medium case and 4 cm in the high case. 6 discussion there are several issues which need addressing in relation to our results, mostly related to the experimental design. firstly, one of the main sources of error in our results is likely due to the fact that we have made no attempt to couple the ice sheet model to the climate model, relying instead on a single iteration. although some account is taken of the ice elevation feedback via the lapse-rate correction to the forcing climate (eq. 2), we are neglecting other ice sheet-climate feedbacks, the strongest of which is likely related to albedo. our ''equilibrium'' ice sheets in figs. 11 and 12 and the corresponding ice volumes in tables 3 and 4 should therefore primarily be considered relative to each other, rather than as ice sheets which are in equilibrium with the forcing climate. however, we do not expect this to change either the fact that the closure of the seaway led to an increase in nh ice volume, or that the increase was relatively small. it would be surprising if, in a fully coupled simulation, there was a bifurcation point lying between any of the pliocsand plioospairs in table 3 on the other hand, such bifurcation points would certainly exist in certain special regions of parameter space; but in the ''real world'' the earth system would move away from such regions due to, for example, changing p co2 or orbital configurations. related to this is the fact that, in our pliocene gcm simulations, there is a significant greenland ice sheet, albeit reduced in volume and extent relative to the presentday. this has the effect of cooling temperatures locally and most likely encouraging ice sheet inception. a perhaps cleaner experiment would have been to remove the greenland ice sheet in the original gcm simulations, assuming that prior to the closure of the seaway, nhg was minimal. however, by removing the greenland ice sheet in the gcm simulations, we would have lost consistency with
Can aeolian dust records explain the occurrence of discrete evolutionary phases in the hominin fossil record?
aeolian dust records has been unable to explain the occurrence of discrete evolutionary phases in the hominin fossil record
What provides the missing environmental evidence (occurrence of discrete evolutionary phases in the hominin fossil record)?
the understanding of ears lakes as both a climate indicator and landscape feature provides this missing environmental evidence
What is the possible effect of unusual geology and climate of the EARS introduced periods when the local environments in East Africa were highly variable?
this may have driven hominin speciation and also subsequent dispersal events
o or aeolian dust records has been unable to explain the occurrence of discrete evolutionary phases in the hominin fossil record. however, the understanding of ears lakes as both a climate indicator and landscape feature provides this missing environmental evidence. the unusual geology and climate of the ears introduced periods when the local environments in east africa were highly variable. this may have driven hominin speciation and also subsequent dispersal events. the pulsed climate variability hypothesis should be seen as a framework, which describes the palaeoclimate context within which early human evolution occurred. it does not, however, provide a mechanism through which the evolutionary process occurred and geographic separation, environmental stress, accelerated evolution and extinction of generalist verses specialists, variability selection, and inter-species competition could all have played a role. it should also be remembered that climate may not have always been the underlying cause and that intrinsic social factors may have played a signi fi cant role especially with increased encephalisation flinn et al., 2005 ). however, it does seem that an understanding the role of east african palaeoclimates is required to explain why and when hominin species evolved and eventually migrated out of east africa. acknowledgements we would like to thank beth christensen, annett junginger, kit opie, robin dunbar, craig feibel, richard leakey, meave leakey, rob foley, marta lahr, mark thomas and mark collard for their comments and support. we would also like to thank the reviewers whose detailed comments greatly improved this paper. we would like to thank the ucl drawing of fi ce (department of geography) for compiling the fi gures. references
What is the theme of World Health Day 2008
protecting health against climate change
Mention the theme of National Public Health Week 2008?
climate change: our health in the balance
Why do people fail to behave in ways that are in their own or society's best interest?
lack of relevant knowledge on their part (i.e., an information deficit) and/or misguided attitudes
the public health community, like many others, was slow to recognize the threat of climate change. the themes of world health day 2008 (protecting health against climate change) and national public health week 2008 (climate change: our health in the balance) make clear that the threat is now recognized. the need for the public health community to mobilize its assets against that threat is now obvious. fortunately, the public health community has much to offer. perhaps most notably, this community has both breadth and depth of experience in understanding and responding to population behavior-change challenges (see text box for an example). historically, when people fail to behave in ways that are in their own or society's best interest--as judged by public health professionals, environmental scientists, and other similar experts--the tendency has been to assume that the cause must be either a lack of relevant knowledge on their part (i.e., an information deficit) and/or misguided attitudes. the prescription that has tended to follow this diagnosis is: to change people's behavior, we must provide them with the knowledge they lack and/or persuade them to change their attitudes.15
What does this section focus on?
in this section we focus on the mean solar signal
The SW hearing rate difference supports results from other studies that the strongest direct solar effect is found in which region?
the sw heating rate difference (figure 3a) supports results from other studies [e.g., brasseur 1993; haigh 1994; fleming et al. 1995; matthes et al. 2003] that the strongest direct solar effect is found in the stratopause region (around 48 km/1 hpa
Which region does the strongest temperature response appear around?
correspondingly, the strongest temperature response (figure 3b) appears around the stratopause confirming the direct impact of the 11-year solar signal on temperatures in this height region
in this section we focus on the mean solar signal (hereafter referred to as ''solar signal''), i.e., without separating the years according to the phase of the equatorial qbo, and investigate differences between solar maxima (max (maxe maxw)/2) and solar minima (min (mine minw)/2). all differences presented here are based on monthly mean data, averaged over 15 model years. 3.1. annual mean the sw heating rate difference (figure 3a) supports results from other studies [e.g., brasseur 1993; haigh 1994; fleming et al. 1995; matthes et al. 2003] that the strongest direct solar effect is found in the stratopause region (around 48 km/1 hpa). correspondingly, the strongest temperature response (figure 3b) appears around the stratopause confirming the direct impact of the 11-year solar signal on temperatures in this height region. however, the
What is  the greatest drivers of ecological change in the coming century?
climate change is predicted to be one of the greatest drivers of ecological change in the coming century
What is the result of the change in the coming century?
these changes will, in turn, alter ecological communities and the functioning of ecosystems. despite the seriousness of predicted climate change
Where will the changes happen?
the largest changes in fauna are predicted for the tundra, central america, and the andes mountains where, assuming no dispersal constraints, specific areas are likely to experience over 90 turnover, so that faunal distributions in the future will bear little resemblance to those of today
climate change is predicted to be one of the greatest drivers of ecological change in the coming century. increases in temperature over the last century have clearly been linked to shifts in species distributions. given the magnitude of projected future climatic changes, we can expect even larger range shifts in the coming century. these changes will, in turn, alter ecological communities and the functioning of ecosystems. despite the seriousness of predicted climate change, the uncertainty in climate-change projections makes it difficult for conservation managers and planners to proactively respond to climate stresses. to address one aspect of this uncertainty, we identified predictions of faunal change for which a high level of consensus was exhibited by different climate models. specifically, we assessed the potential effects of 30 coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (aogcm) future-climate simulations on the geographic ranges of 2954 species of birds, mammals, and amphibians in the western hemisphere. eighty percent of the climate projections based on a relatively low greenhouse-gas emissions scenario result in the local loss of at least 10 of the vertebrate fauna over much of north and south america. the largest changes in fauna are predicted for the tundra, central america, and the andes mountains where, assuming no dispersal constraints, specific areas are likely to experience over 90 turnover, so that faunal distributions in the future will bear little resemblance to those of today.
How are the displacements?
major northward shifts of the shrub-dominated tundra biomes, with major reductions in the total area of erect and prostrate dwarf-shrub tundras, in many cases below 1 x 106 km2 (figure 11
Where are the tundra biomes?
the tundra biomes become restricted to coastal and mountainous areas of the arctic, disappearing almost completely from regions such as western europe and the lena river valley, and with significant reductions in alaska, eastern siberia, and the mackenzie drainage
Where's the cold park area?
the area of cold parkland is reduced in the three warmest scenarios, where it is mostly replaced by forest
the 2*c warming simulations show major northward shifts of the shrub-dominated tundra biomes, with major reductions in the total area of erect and prostrate dwarf-shrub tundras, in many cases below 1 x 106 km2 (figure 11). cushion forb, lichen and moss tundra is nearly extinct in all but the coldest scenario, though this type of tundra would presumably be the first to occupy areas are vacated by melting icecaps and glaciers, which were not considered in this study. the tundra biomes become restricted to coastal and mountainous areas of the arctic, disappearing almost completely from regions such as western europe and the lena river valley, and with significant reductions in alaska, eastern siberia, and the mackenzie drainage. the area of cold parkland is reduced in the three warmest scenarios, where it is mostly replaced by forest. in some areas with steep climatic gradients, such as along coastlines, the cold parkland is equally replaced by forest and tundra.
What do the results using ANOVA show about climate change?
the findings using anova, shows that there are significant differences in the hindrances of adaptation strategies of combating climate change in the study area. the calculated value 31.46, while the anova table value at 5 and 1% are 2.87 and 4.43 respectively which is a clear indication (table 2). in the same vain using chi-square also shows that there are significant differences in hindrances of adaptation strategies targeted towards reducing the impact of climate change in the study area by the indigenous people
What was the conclusion of ANOVA's studies on climate change?
conclusion the change in climate patterns (rainfall, temperature, precipitation, etc.), and the destruction of the natural resource base leads to the unpredictable and erratic rainfall pattern, warmer temperature, increased evapotranspiration, increased deforestation and ecosystem fragmentation, diminishing pasture and water availability, frequency of drought, changes in the livelihood patterns of communities, increased social conflicts between communities, loosening of social cohesions, increased incidence of diseases and epidemics, increased rural urban migration and increased community displacement from fragile environment
Why we need to establish an ethics of environmental conservation among indigenous peoples?
the overall needs are to setup serious environmental conservation ethic among indigenous people. this can only be possible by first and famous educating the indigenous people on the implication of climate change, educate the indigenous people on the significance of conservation of the natural environment, support the most environmental friendly people and groups towards achieving set goals and objectives in the study areas
the findings using anova, shows that there are significant differences in the hindrances of adaptation strategies of combating climate change in the study area. the calculated value 31.46, while the anova table value at 5 and 1% are 2.87 and 4.43 respectively which is a clear indication (table 2). in the same vain using chi-square also shows that there are significant differences in hindrances of adaptation strategies targeted towards reducing the impact of climate change in the study area by the indigenous people. the calculated value given as 247.12 clearly shows that significant differences exist when compared with the 9.49 and 13.28 obtained at 5 and 1% chi-square alpha levels. conclusion the change in climate patterns (rainfall, temperature, precipitation, etc.), and the destruction of the natural resource base leads to the unpredictable and erratic rainfall pattern, warmer temperature, increased evapotranspiration, increased deforestation and ecosystem fragmentation, diminishing pasture and water availability, frequency of drought, changes in the livelihood patterns of communities, increased social conflicts between communities, loosening of social cohesions, increased incidence of diseases and epidemics, increased rural urban migration and increased community displacement from fragile environment. the findings of this study shows that the threat of climate change is more on health, food supply, biodiversity quality and fuelwood availability than on businesses, instigating of disaster. indigenous adapting to climate change strategies in the study area include, planting different varieties of crops, cultivating different crops, shortening growing season, changing the extend of land put into crop production, changing to irrigation/fadama farming, the use of chemical fertilizer, improve in water maximization and mulching. more of the adaptation strategies are more on planting different varieties of crops, cultivating different crops and shortening of growing season. factors hindering the use of quality seed are found to be the non-availability of the desired variety seeds and higher price of quality seeds. the analysis has revealed to a great extent that the indigenous people in the study areas take the issues of climate change seriously. the perceived hindrances to adoption of modern technique as adaptation strategies of climate change include lack of improved seeds, lack of assess to water for irrigation farming, lack of current knowledge on adaptation methods, lack of information on weather incidence and lack of money to acquired modern techniques all influences the drive towards adapting to climate change. indigenous peoples in the study area have very weak approach towards tackling climate change problems. poverty and ignorance of various adaptation strategies are the major contributing factors to the impact felt by indigenous people. the knowledge and information gap concerning the effect of climate change, information dissemination, awareness programmes and training programmes calls for immediate action in order to relegate the impact of climate change in the study areas. the role of public administration in the study area must also change from implementing to specific climate conservation and adaptation programmes serving as facilitators, promoters, encouragers, guardians and makers of more possible larger participation of indigenous people in developing and applying more sustainable forms land uses in the study areas. the overall needs are to setup serious environmental conservation ethic among indigenous people. this can only be possible by first and famous educating the indigenous people on the implication of climate change, educate the indigenous people on the significance of conservation of the natural environment, support the most environmental friendly people and groups towards achieving set goals and objectives in the study areas. references abaje ib, giwa pn (2007). urban flooding and environmental safety: a case study of kafanchan town in kaduna state. a paper
What difficulties do scientists encounter when trying to sample beach fauna?
as a result, the macrobenthos tend to be patchily distributed, with dense aggregations (patches or bands) interspersed among areas of low abundance or uninhabited sand. this patchiness, coupled with the small size of most beach fauna, and their rapid burrowing, introduces considerable difficulties when designing sampling programmes to study intertidal community ecology
What is the difference between simply collecting samples and sampling design ?
collection of samples is relatively simple; it generally involves little more than excavating sediment from the intertidal and sieving it in the swash to separate organisms from the sand. in contrast, sampling design i.e. how these samples are to be distributed across the sampling universe) is more complicated, and more often is structured according to the experiences and conventions of the sampling team than based on theoretical principles or standardised approaches
What is a benefit of sampling design?
a main benefit is that results of different research teams are better comparable, which is an essential goal, if beach ecologists are to answer 'big' questions in their field
ocean-exposed sandy beaches are dynamic and variable environments, displaying a high degree of temporal and spatial heterogeneity at various scales. as a result, the macrobenthos tend to be patchily distributed, with dense aggregations (patches or bands) interspersed among areas of low abundance or uninhabited sand. this patchiness, coupled with the small size of most beach fauna, and their rapid burrowing, introduces considerable difficulties when designing sampling programmes to study intertidal community ecology. collection of samples is relatively simple; it generally involves little more than excavating sediment from the intertidal and sieving it in the swash to separate organisms from the sand. in contrast, sampling design i.e. how these samples are to be distributed across the sampling universe) is more complicated, and more often is structured according to the experiences and conventions of the sampling team than based on theoretical principles or standardised approaches. nevertheless, there are obvious advantages to good sampling designs and standardising techniques. a main benefit is that results of different research teams are better comparable, which is an essential goal, if beach ecologists are to answer 'big' questions in their field. here, we report on the outcomes of the workshop on field-sampling designs and collection protocols for ecological benthos research on ocean-exposed sandy beaches. this workshop aimed to achieve consensus on methods and terminology. a full consensus was, however, not always possible amongst all participants, who work in contrasting settings, each with their own physical challenges. what emerged was a code of 'best practice' for sampling strategies designed primarily to characterise macroinfaunal community structure i.e. abundance, biomass, diversity, species composition). it must be stressed that the recommendations put forward here are a compromise between basic statistical requirements and the logistical constraints of field operations. as such, they are guidelines and not absolute rules; there will be circumstances under which these recommendations are impractical. for example, impact assessments, as well as population and behavioural studies require specialised designs, which were not covered in this workshop. also, where long-term data sets have followed non-standard approaches, advantages associated with preserving the integrity of the time series might take precedence over compliance with a new strategy. despite such constraints, beach ecologists are strongly encouraged to follow the recommendations provided below as far as possible.
What is the Neoprotezoroic?
the neoproterozoic is a time of transition between the ancient microbial world and the phanerozoic, marked by a resumption of extreme carbon isotope fluctuations and glaciation after a billion-year absence
What the carbon cycle disruptions are accompanied by?
the carbon cycle disruptions are probably accompanied by changes in the stock of oxidants and connect to glaciations via changes in the atmospheric greenhouse gas content
In which light the initiation and deglaciation of Snowball states are discussed?
the initiation and deglaciation of snowball states are discussed in light of a suite of general circulation model simulations designed to facilitate intercomparison between different models. snow cover and the nature of the frozen surface emerge as key factors governing initiation and deglaciation
the neoproterozoic is a time of transition between the ancient microbial world and the phanerozoic, marked by a resumption of extreme carbon isotope fluctuations and glaciation after a billion-year absence. the carbon cycle disruptions are probably accompanied by changes in the stock of oxidants and connect to glaciations via changes in the atmospheric greenhouse gas content. two of the glaciations reach low latitudes and may have been snowball events with near-global ice cover. this review deals primarily with the cryogenian portion of the neoproterozoic, during which these glaciations occurred. the initiation and deglaciation of snowball states are discussed in light of a suite of general circulation model simulations designed to facilitate intercomparison between different models. snow cover and the nature of the frozen surface emerge as key factors governing initiation and deglaciation. the most comprehensive model discussed confirms the possibility of initiating a snowball event with a plausible reduction of co2. deglaciation requires a combination of elevated co2 and tropical dust accumulation, aided by some cloud warming. the cause of neoproterozoic biogeochemical turbulence, and its precise connection with snowball glaciations, remains obscure.
What contributes to the marginalization of single women?
the privileging of marriage and long-term partnerships
What type of social category does singleness fall into?
discursively constructed
With regard to feminist psychology of singleness, where does the focus need to be aimed at?
patterning of ideology
the privileging of marriage and long-term partnerships contributes to the marginalization of single women. this article explores the ways in which women defined as single work with the typical constructions of their identity available in the public arena. we view singleness as a discursively constructed social category. using data from interviews with 30 women we examine the identity that women construct for themselves through their talk. we present the four main interpretative repertoires that women draw on, and look at two patterns of identity work commonly used to deal with the highly polarized repertoires. singleness is a troubled category, and yet the positive and idealized repertoires available seem to make other aspects of women's lives and expectations pathological. we argue for a feminist psychology of singleness based on critical discursive psychology: the focus needs to be on the patterning of ideology rather than the supposed dysfunction of single women.
What do GEC scientists worry about?
that this social contract risks politicizing the sort of value-free knowledge that decision-makers and most citizens have come to expect from science and 'experts' more generally
What does Daniel Sarewitz cogently argue?
an approach only serves to conceal the fact that gec science is already political24. pretending otherwise opens it to several misuses
Who funds the GEC research?
government funded
some gec scientists will worry that this social contract risks politicizing the sort of value-free knowledge that decision-makers and most citizens have come to expect from science and 'experts' more generally. the orchestrated attacks by climate change sceptics, especially in the united states and australia, have no doubt made many wary of being seen to 'play politics' with their findings. in this light, the prudent approach may appear to be one that restricts gec research to factual and technical matters (that is, continues with the ipcc's 'policy relevant yet policy neutral' model of knowledge provision). however, appearances deceive. as daniel sarewitz cogently argues, such an approach only serves to conceal the fact that gec science is already political24. pretending otherwise opens it to several misuses. one pertains to 'tornado politics'25. this is where crisis rhetoric ('we need to act now!') serves to suspend robust societal debate about future pathways. it leads researchers to focus only on the 'best' means necessary to reach given environmental goals in light of existing arrangements -- thus leaving these arrangements relatively immune to questioning. unlike those areas of 'big research' that have been significantly directed by private investment (pre-eminently certain life sciences), gec research remains government funded by and large and should seek to serve the widest public interest. it can better help decision-makers and those they represent by presenting a broadly speaking, environmental social science has two aims: (1) to study systematically the presuppositions, norms, perceptions, preferences, relations, regulations and institutions that together structure how humans value and use the non-human world; and (2) to identify and evaluate ways of altering human behaviour in light of one or more definitions of desirable or necessary ends. as part of this second aim, many environmental social scientists work with those effecting, or affected by, environmental change, rather than just conducting research on them. the environmental humanities have similar objectives. however, they place less emphasis on assembling and analysing large-scale (or long-run) data sets about people's thinking or actions. instead, their work addresses fundamental questions of value, responsibility, rights, entitlements, needs, duty, faith, care, government, cruelty, charity and justice in a world marked by (1) significant differences in people's customs and aspirations, (2) manifest inequalities in people's living conditions and material prospects, and (3) complex material and moral interdependencies among people and non-humans stretched across space and unfolding through time. addressing these questions involves reasoned argument predicated on sometimes starkly opposed principles, as long-standing debates over the moral significance of animals graphically demonstrate. the environmental humanities illuminate peoples' complex and divergent understandings of life -- human and non-human -- on earth. they also pay close attention to human faculties beyond cognition and reason, dealing with such things as love, trust, fear, care, commitment, devotion and loyalty.
What has an impact on the biological processes in a landscape?
the size, shape, layout and management of plantations ultimately determine much of the important landscape-scale biological processes
Before the canopy closes, what small tree phase occurs in the plantations?
plantations go through a small tree phase with high solar radiation
Who spoke of the tree phase phenomenon?
wilson ludlow
butler, koh, ghazoul 2009 ). plantations go through a small tree phase with high solar radiation and wind exposure before the canopy closes wilson ludlow 1990; corley tinker 2003 fig. 1 ). finally, plantations are rotated by clear-cutting existing palms when yield diminishes and trees become too tall to harvest economically butler et al. 2009 ). slash is either reduced mechanically, by fire, or leaving it to decompose, the land is then prepared and new oil palm seedlings are replanted corley tinker 2003 ). beyond the lifecycle-related effects on plantation habitat, spatial heterogeneity emerges within the oil palm landscape due to different plantation sizes and shapes. for example, oil palm cultivation ranges from smallholder plots of 1-10 ha to international corporations and government-operated megaplantations exceeding 10 km2( corley tinker 2003 ). the size, shape, layout and management of plantations ultimately determine much of the important landscape-scale biological processes such as connectivity, permeability and edge effects forman 1995 ).
Characterisation between plug-flow and completemix conditions is also a function of what ?
dynamics of the constituent being analysed
The analytical solution of the equation for dispersed flow with first-order kinetics was proposed by who & what year?
wehner and wilhem in 1956
What is the equation?
c c0. 4ae1 2d
reynolds number (which is a function of some of the factors listed above). it is important to note that the characterisation between plug-flow and completemix conditions is also a function of the dynamics of the constituent being analysed. for example, oxidation ditches behave like complete-mix reactors for most of the variables, such as suspended solids and bod. samples collected along its length 348 basic principles of wastewater treatment will give approximately the same concentrations. however, for constituents that exhibit fast dynamics, the situation is different. dissolved oxygen (do) in activated sludge reactors presents very rapid dynamics, with fast increases or decreases in its concentration. for this reason, do concentrations are high in the vicinity of the aerators, decreasing due to the bacterial consumption as the liquid flows along the ditch, until it reaches the next aerator. therefore, there is a gradient of the longitudinal do concentration along the tank, what characterises a regime approaching plug flow. the analytical solution of the equation for dispersed flow with first-order kinetics was proposed by wehner and wilhem in 1956. for other reactions different from first order, numerical solutions are necessary. the equation for first-order reactions is: c c0. 4ae1 2d
The probability that new strains of what virus is increasing?
influenza virus
What reflects the unprecedented combination of ocean warming?
the decline in available seafood protein
Who is seafood protein important for?
important for many low-income coastal populations
the following four examples describe other environmental and ecologic changes on a global scale that will increasingly influence the world's health. first, the probability that new strains of influenza virus will emerge is increasing, particularly in the rural villages of southeast asia and east asia.14,25 the risk increases with population growth; the juxtaposition of traditional backyard pig, chicken, and duck farming with intensified commercial poultry production; and environmental changes that affect the flight paths of migrating wild birds. second, the decline in available seafood protein (which is important for many low-income coastal populations) is a threat to health and reflects the unprecedented combination of ocean warming, acidification (due to increased uptake of carbon dioxide), deoxygenation,26 destruction of coastal fish nurseries, and overfishing.27
After Hurricane Floyd hit Pitt County in North Carolina in 1999, what did teamwork accomplish with respect to health care?
teamwork between community physicians and university medical services secured health care provision
After Hurricane Floyd hit Pitt County in North Carolina in 1999, how was dialysis patients dealt with?
the identification of dialysis patients and provision of dialysis was organized either at a functioning centre or in the home, and telemedicine services were established in community shelters
if countries of the South are afflicted by severe flooding, what may temporarily happen to health care in low income countries and why?
the health care situation following a disastrous flood in lowincome countries may be marked by a temporary collapse of services owing to the destruction of facilities, disruption of transport and shortages of drugs
clinton et al. (1995) summarise the important characteristics of emergency response following tropical storm albert over georgia. disaster preparedness planning, they suggested, should facilitate continuous liaison between different levels of health care and response managers to ensure maintenance of effective health services. after hurricane floyd hit pitt county in north carolina in 1999, an emergency team ran the hospital command centre and the transportation centre to ensure continuous access to health care (franklin et al. ., 2000). teamwork between community physicians and university medical services secured health care provision. family clinics offered 24 hour medical services (triage, treatment and referral) and medical staff were sent to community shelters to provide tetanus vaccinations, treatment of injuries and the management of chronic diseases. the identification of dialysis patients and provision of dialysis was organized either at a functioning centre or in the home, and telemedicine services were established in community shelters. the situation may be very different if countries of the south are afflicted by severe flooding. in many cases, the health care services do not have the capacity to deal with these extreme situations, on top of a generally higher baseline pattern of disease burden. in the worst cases, the health care situation following a disastrous flood in lowincome countries may be marked by a temporary collapse of services owing to the destruction of facilities, disruption of transport and shortages of drugs. nishat et al. (2000) report on how the formal health system in dhaka in bangladesh was severely disrupted in this manner during the catastrophic flood of 1998 (see box 4.3).
what was stated in the Government Accountability office 2007:1?
in contrast, nps respondents unanimously reported that they did not have an agency-wide policy mandate that clearly communicates that adaptation is a priority to all levels of the agency, nor had they received substantive direction and a framework for implementing actions at the individual unit level. respondents in both agencies indicated they were unsure of what specific actions they should implement and what, if anything, they should be doing differently in their jobs to respond to climate change. this is consistent with the findings of a 2007 government accountability office report, which concluded that "resource managers have limited guidance about whether or how to address climate change and, therefore, are uncertain about what actions, if any, they should take
What are some examples used to help the health of the forest?
such as mechanical thinning and prescribed burning, with the primary goal of correcting overly dense forest stands created through years of fire suppression. climate change adaptation represented a secondary co-benefit of these projects, namely, increased resistance to, and resilience in the face of, fire, insects, and disease
What are the 4 recommendations are concluded in this study?
1) establishing a clear agency policy mandate for adaptation that requires climate change adaptation to be a primary concern, not just a supplementary criterion to be considered in planning processes; (2) educating employees about adaptation to generate internal support; (3) creating formal divisions of labor to allow staff to focus exclusively on climate change issues; and (4) providing requisite funding and staff to support
in other words, there were formal institutional rules within the usfs that permitted managers and staff to address climate change as an issue of concern, but there were no rules requiring climate change adaptation projects. in contrast, nps respondents unanimously reported that they did not have an agency-wide policy mandate that clearly communicates that adaptation is a priority to all levels of the agency, nor had they received substantive direction and a framework for implementing actions at the individual unit level. respondents in both agencies indicated they were unsure of what specific actions they should implement and what, if anything, they should be doing differently in their jobs to respond to climate change. this is consistent with the findings of a 2007 government accountability office report, which concluded that "resource managers have limited guidance about whether or how to address climate change and, therefore, are uncertain about what actions, if any, they should take" (government accountability office 2007:1). the limited number and scope of examples of adaptation in the individual units studied here also suggest that climate change adaptation has not yet been integrated into managers' current job responsibilities; it was an additional, rather than essential, part of their work. to the extent that the six case study units had addressed climate change adaptation at all, they took a limited approach in the absence of more specific agency guidance. individual units considered adaptation only in terms of infrastructure protection and forest health, and even then only when it was consistent with existing agency policy and procedures. furthermore, the results illustrate reactive rather than anticipatory adaptation (repetto 2008, u.s. climate change science program 2008); individual units were assessing potential infrastructure adaptation options only in areas that have already experienced more frequent and severe floods, not where future floods may occur. repetto (2008) states that reactive adaptation by its very nature lags behind emerging climate change risks and thus will be less effective at addressing future impacts. the examples of forest health adaptation strategies in usfs units relied on traditional forest management approaches, such as mechanical thinning and prescribed burning, with the primary goal of correcting overly dense forest stands created through years of fire suppression. climate change adaptation represented a secondary co-benefit of these projects, namely, increased resistance to, and resilience in the face of, fire, insects, and disease. the slow adoption of climate change adaptation at the individual unit level is not surprising given that the nps and usfs have long operated through a traditional system of hierarchical authority, welldefined job descriptions, and standard operating procedures. these bureaucratic rules make it difficult to respond quickly to changing environmental problems, external laws, and internal policy directives (kaufman 1971, sabatier et al. 1995). without an explicit internal mandate and clear delegation of authority and responsibilities, unit-level managers may be unable or reluctant to devote staff time and resources to implementing significant policy changes for climate change adaptation. moreover, these bureaucratic rules impede the ability of agency managers and staff to develop plans and projects that cross agency jurisdictions (thomas 2003). if unit-level managers in the future desire to plan for and implement adaptation strategies, the bureaucratic model suggests they would not likely follow through given perceptions that are outside their unit's management authorities. instead, as our interview examples show, they would favor adaptation strategies that support existing agency policy goals ("no-regrets" strategies) and require minimal changes to current management practices. given the bureaucratic structure and culture of the nps and usfs, more extensive proactive adaptation strategies may not be widely implemented until upper management clearly states that adaptation is a unit-level as well as agency-wide policy priority, requires units to pursue whatever adaptation options are deemed appropriate to address local environmental conditions, and provides requisite levels of funding and staffing for implementation. conclusion a number of general recommendations follow from this study. the results suggest that nationaland regional-level agency managers should reduce formal and informal institutional barriers to adaptation by: (1) establishing a clear agency policy mandate for adaptation that requires climate change adaptation to be a primary concern, not just a supplementary criterion to be considered in planning processes; (2) educating employees about adaptation to generate internal support; (3) creating formal divisions of labor to allow staff to focus exclusively on climate change issues; and (4) providing requisite funding and staff to support
What is achieved by drawing random numbers from the modeled distribution of Y thus intrinsically representing the unexplained variability?
simulation of downscaled time series is achieved by drawing random numbers from the modeled distribution of y thus intrinsically representing the unexplained variability
What are Vector Generalized Linear Models GLMs are capable of describing?
vector generalized linear models glms are capable of describing the mean of a wide class of distributions conditional on a set of predictors
What generally requires more data for accurate estimation of relationships?
the nonparametric framework generally requires more data for accurate estimation of relationships
simulation of downscaled time series is achieved by drawing random numbers from the modeled distribution of y thus intrinsically representing the unexplained variability. in the context of precipitation downscaling, most applications of glms are effectively weather generators; see section 4.3. an extension of the glm is the generalized additive model (gam) hastie and tibshirani 1990], where the linear dependence is replaced by nonparametric smooth functions. the nonparametric framework generally requires more data for accurate estimation of relationships, however. gams have been employed, in a paleoclimate context, with large - scale data and geographical characteristics as predictors to downscale climatological monthly temperature and precipitation representative of the last glacial maximum vrac et al. 2007b]. gams in the context of weather generators will be discussed in section 4.3. 4.1.3.3. vector generalized linear models glms are capable of describing the mean of a wide class of distributions conditional on a set of predictors. in some situations, especially when studying the behavior of extreme events, one is additionally interested in the dependence of the variance or the extreme tail on a set of predictors. for instance, maraun et al. [2009] and rust et al. [2009] have shown that the annual cycles of location and scale parameters of monthly maxima of daily precipitation in the uk are slightly out of phase and are better modeled independently. for this purpose, vector generalized linear models (vglms) have been developed yee and wild 1996; yee and stephenson 2007]. instead of the conditional mean of a distribution only, a vector of parameters p p1, p2, ... of a distribution is predicted:
how Social contract theory explain political philosophy?
social contract theory has a long history in political philosophy. it explains how governments and responsibility evolve over time as emerging risks pose challenges to the established consensus concerning the role of the state
why are Climate risks particularly problematic for consensus building for government ?
climate risks are particularly problematic for consensus building for government because of uncertainty and uneven distribution of burdens
is Social contract theory contested?
social contract theory is contested: there are profound debates on the balance of power between civil society and the state
it is clear that climate change will not be experienced as a smooth change in mean conditions, but as a series of extreme weather events, possibly leading to crises in policy and planning. these can offer opportunities for investment and legislation while there is public support and attention3,4. understanding how events shape the direction of adaptation requires a theory of the process of change. social contract theory has a long history in political philosophy. it explains how governments and responsibility evolve over time as emerging risks pose challenges to the established consensus concerning the role of the state. social contract theory is contested: there are profound debates on the balance of power between civil society and the state. recent applications suggest that adaptation and resilience could lead to renegotiation of social contracts because of the co-evolving nature of risks and multi-actor influences on change5. some theories suggest that environmental risks create new roles for states6, but that there are limits to social contracts: they can exclude those who may not recognize the legitimacy of governments; they can emerge from less-than-legitimate lobbying among key actors7; and they fail to represent citizens of the future1. climate risks are particularly problematic for consensus building for government because of uncertainty and uneven distribution of burdens8. an emerging body of research suggests that the potential scale, scope and interconnectedness of many climate-change risks will require radical change in economic and social structures, and terms this as transformation9,10. the intergovernmental panel on climate change special report on managing extreme events also shows that both incremental adaptation and transformations are required for resilient societies11. early indications of resistance to resettlement and conflict in adaptation planning also highlight that populations
How many large public developments did CABE publish a review of?
over 700
How many large public developments made sustainability a priority?
fewer than 10
Why can't you have "green towers"?
use too much of the earth's rapidly dwindling raw materials, they cost too much, their impacts are too great for small areas and in most cases they don't retain their value as well as, or for as long as, lower less polluting buildings
in 2007, at the end of the global building boom, planning permission had been sought for a large number of high-rise buildings in the uk. in may 2008 cabe published a review of over 700 large public developments and concluded that fewer than 10 of them made sustainability a genuine priority. the report claims that there is an endemic ' piecemeal ' approach to introducing sustainability into projects that concentrate too much on ' green gadgets ' however there does seem to be a virtuous circle that is operating that is making people aware that you simply cant have ' green towers ' because they use too much of the earth's rapidly dwindling raw materials, they cost too much, their impacts are too great for small areas and in most cases they don't retain their value as well as, or for as long as, lower less polluting buildings. the higher the building, the more it costs to build and operate, and the more costly and difficult it is to maintain. the primary increase in build costs, per metre square, results from the increased structure and construction required to support the building, to earthquake-, fireand weather-proof it, and the increased systems needed to operate it, including lifts, escalators, water pumping and electrical systems. these high costs can only pay back if higher than average prices are paid for the floor area, housing or offices than would be the case in a lower rise building. so, for instance, putting social housing up in the air is to ask the ordinary council tax payer to pay in perpetuity for the lift, concierge, policing, social worker, maintenance, refurbishment and demolition costs of the homes of a few people, who could just as well have been housed in low-rise, low-cost housing built for the same price. more free ebooks http://fast-file.blogspot.com
Which three concepts are relevant to ambient oxygen and sensitivity to hypoxia?
in the context of whole-organism requirements for ambient oxygen and of the associated levels of sensitivity to hypoxia (cf. prosser, 1991) the concepts of oxyconformity, oxyregulation and the critical po2 are relevant
What is an oxyregulator?
some keep their oxygen consumption more or less constant over a wide range of po2 values and are called oxyregulators
What did animals show in response to changed in ambient PO2?
it was recognized early on that animals may show different patterns of oxygen consumption in response to changes in ambient po2
temperature and hypoxia would traditionally be considered as different environmental factors, with specific implications for whole-organism functioning. the problem of environmental hypoxia has traditionally been treated more or less independently and the conceptual framework developed needs to be looked at in more detail before attempting to integrate it with concepts developed for other stressors like temperature or co2. in the context of whole-organism requirements for ambient oxygen and of the associated levels of sensitivity to hypoxia (cf. prosser, 1991) the concepts of oxyconformity, oxyregulation and the critical po2 are relevant. they have been revisited earlier, considering systemic and cellular processes in declining ambient oxygen tensions from an integrative point of view (portner and grieshaber, 1993). it was recognized early on that animals may show different patterns of oxygen consumption in response to changes in ambient po2. some keep their oxygen consumption more or less constant over a wide range of po2 values and are called oxyregulators. many of these become conformers once oxygen availability falls below the minimum needed to cover oxygen demand. others show variable oxygen uptake over a wider range of ambient oxygen tensions and
What this research has demonstrated ?
this research has demonstrated the range of opinions surrounding climate change and development 53 represented in the uk press
What this reasearch has contributed to ?
the research has contributed to recent discussions surrounding the various influences on media coverage of climate change
What identifying the discourses according to their component parts has provided ?
identifying the discourses according to their component parts has provided a less subjective and more nuanced basis from which to explore influences on press coverage
in addition to highlighting these general media perceptions, this research has demonstrated the range of opinions surrounding climate change and development 53 represented in the uk press, showing their similarities and the important points where they differ (table 3.1), and established how the different interpretations have fashioned coverage over the past decade. identifying the discourses according to their component parts has provided a less subjective and more nuanced basis from which to explore influences on press coverage. in so doing, the research has contributed to recent discussions surrounding the various influences on media coverage of climate change (e.g. boykoff and boykoff, 2004; carvalho and burgess, 2005), and shown the potential for more in-depth research into the various hypotheses.
Is climate the primary concern in communities?
communities in marginal areas, climate may decreasingly be the primary concern
What is an example of a negative impact of climate variability on agriculture?
australian farming households over the last few years that have seen crippling, multi-year drought followed by record flooding
Who or what accommodates distributed modes of farming?
accommodated by moving between widely distributed farm businesses, employment and children's activities (rickards, 2012
for some communities in marginal areas, climate may decreasingly be the primary concern. nielsen and reenberg (2010) present results from northern burkina faso that indicate that villagers there are "beyond climate": current livelihood strategies are increasingly independent of climate. there as elsewhere, people have engaged in livelihood diversification in attempts to ameliorate the negative impacts of climate variability on agriculture. at some stage, tipping points are reached such that transformative adaptation alternatives may be the only viable options that remain. there are many examples of such changes to livelihood systems, such as substitution of one crop or livestock species for another. in many parts of sub-saharan africa, a highly spatially distributed mode of living is prevalent, and clearly it can be a highly effective way of dealing with change and variability. this is intriguingly mirrored in developed-country situations also, in australian farming households over the last few years that have seen crippling, multi-year drought followed by record flooding, for example. many such households are developing more spatially distributed modes of farming and living, whereby multiple priorities and pressures can be accommodated by moving between widely distributed farm businesses, employment and children's activities (rickards, 2012). endurance and accommodating change may be widely valued, but others would challenge this world view and emphasise innovation and the conscious creation of innovative alternatives (rickards, 2012; o'brien, 2012). many people may have no choice, and chronic or sudden-onset environmental disasters related to climate change may force large-scale migration; however, this is not expected to be common in the next two decades (raleigh and jordan, 2010).
how long ago was a oxgen profile of a water course created
in 1925
what are some of the parts of the differential equations of this model
rate of change of the do deficit do consumption - do production (3.14) impact of wastewater discharges to water bodies 105 dd dt k1. l - k2
what does the integration proof of the differential equation lead to
integration of this equation leads to: dt k1. l0
in 1925 the researchers streeter and phelps established the mathematical bases for the calculation of the dissolved oxygen profile in a water course. the structure of the model proposed by them (known as the streeter-phelps model is classical within environmental engineering, setting the basis for all the other more sophisticated models that succeeded it. for the relatively simple situation in which only the deoxygenation and the atmospheric reaeration are taken into account in the do balance, the rate of change of the oxygen deficit with time can be expressed by the following differential equation, originated from the interaction of the deoxygenation and reaeration equations previously seen: rate of change of the do deficit do consumption - do production (3.14) impact of wastewater discharges to water bodies 105 dd dt k1. l - k2. d (3.15) integration of this equation leads to: dt k1. l0
how do human maintain energy balance?
the human occupants of the building maintain their own energy balance with indoor climatic conditions, and the extent to which they rely on physiologic (as opposed to behavioural or engineering) responses to maintain that energy balance determines the magnitude of their thermal discomfort and attendant dissatisfaction
what is A key behavioural mechanism that attenuates thermal discomfort indoors ?
a key behavioural mechanism that attenuates thermal discomfort indoors is the adjustment of clothing insulation levels, but there are several factors, some of them psychological (cognitive, aesthetic, organisational, cultural, etc.) impinging on clothing decisions as well as the usual thermal variables (temperature, humidity, etc.). one of these is the clothing policy of the occupants' employer
what is the another factor impinging on clothing decisions?
another factor impinging on clothing decisions is outdoor weather, either directly experienced or perhaps forecast by the local meteorological service. this linkage, if given free reign, offers potential to reduce our reliance on external energy inputs (air conditioning and heating) for the maintenance of thermal comfort indoors
finally, we hope that the research reported in this paper might stimulate innovation within the clothing industry. in particular, the paper provides a strong case for the development of clothing garments that can fully comply with formal office attire dress codes, yet provide the wearer with enhanced adaptive opportunities. this might take the form of more variable clothing garment combinations making up office-clothing ensembles. alternatively, it may be possible to design insulation variability into individual garments, such as adjustable or even removable linings from jackets, or zippered vents concealed in the design and cut of jackets or dresses. 5. conclusions this paper has emphasised the impacts of outdoor weather, past (observed) and future (forecast), on the level of clothing insulation worn inside buildings. while the statistical association has been readily demonstrated, the chain of causation has many links and attenuating factors. fig. 13 attempts to draw this complexity together in the form of a conceptual model of clothing, buildings, climate and energy. starting with weather and climate, the outdoor atmospheric environment impacts the energy balance of a given building, and that building's indoor climate responds accordingly. the human occupants of the building maintain their own energy balance with indoor climatic conditions, and the extent to which they rely on physiologic (as opposed to behavioural or engineering) responses to maintain that energy balance determines the magnitude of their thermal discomfort and attendant dissatisfaction. a key behavioural mechanism that attenuates thermal discomfort indoors is the adjustment of clothing insulation levels, but there are several factors, some of them psychological (cognitive, aesthetic, organisational, cultural, etc.) impinging on clothing decisions as well as the usual thermal variables (temperature, humidity, etc.). one of these is the clothing policy of the occupants' employer. corporate dress codes, as found in the present office environment study, all but extinguish clothing adaptive opportunity. the net result of such policies is to transfer responsibility for comfort thermoregulation away from the individual and towards a building's facilities manager. however, another factor impinging on clothing decisions is outdoor weather, either directly experienced or perhaps forecast by the local meteorological service. this linkage, if given free reign, offers potential to reduce our reliance on external energy inputs (air conditioning and heating) for the maintenance of thermal comfort indoors. in so doing there is also likely to be attendant reductions in greenhouse-gas emissions attributable to the commercial building sector. energy conservation and greenhouse-gas emission reductions are both premised on relaxation of the restrictions applying to the thermal adaptability of indoor clothing such as corporate dress codes.
In the early stages of cloud formation, a significant subpopulation of particles  are unable to grow. Why?
however, with ffcs, fig. 6b indicates that in the early stages of cloud formation, a significant subpopulation of particles (i.e., those near the surface area modal radius) are unable to grow because of their film coatings
A sampling of numerous other individual spectra shows that this is the primary reason for spectral broadening. What is the primary reason?
this allows both smaller and larger particles to grow much more rapidly than they would if these particles had been competing for vapor. smaller particles overtake those whose growth is hindered and join larger particles to form the initial drop spectrum. as time progresses, ffc-laden particles are able to take up some water until their monolayers break; at this point they grow rapidly toward the existing droplet spectrum. together they form the drop spectrum (fig. 5a) that exhibits a characteristic flat tail comprising particles that are relative newcomers to the droplet population and the modal radius that comprises drops that grew earlier in the process. a sampling of numerous other individual spectra shows that this is the primary reason for spectral broadening
What is the intriguing possibility mentioned in the study?
the intriguing possibility that if ffcs do indeed act in this manner, there is not necessarily a 1:1 correspondence between aerosol size and drop size (see also podzimek and saad 1975). figure 7 shows time series of various parameters for the base case and ffc simulations corresponding to fig. 6. from early on in the simulation, ds maintains a large value, but exhibits periodic oscillations. this is due to the discrete nature of the model representation of the
without ffcs (fig. 6a), whether particles are to become drops is determined during some small window of time, and thereafter drops grow in unison with concomitant narrowing of the spectrum. however, with ffcs, fig. 6b indicates that in the early stages of cloud formation, a significant subpopulation of particles (i.e., those near the surface area modal radius) are unable to grow because of their film coatings. this allows both smaller and larger particles to grow much more rapidly than they would if these particles had been competing for vapor. smaller particles overtake those whose growth is hindered and join larger particles to form the initial drop spectrum. as time progresses, ffc-laden particles are able to take up some water until their monolayers break; at this point they grow rapidly toward the existing droplet spectrum. together they form the drop spectrum (fig. 5a) that exhibits a characteristic flat tail comprising particles that are relative newcomers to the droplet population and the modal radius that comprises drops that grew earlier in the process. a sampling of numerous other individual spectra shows that this is the primary reason for spectral broadening for the conditions studied here. it raises the intriguing possibility that if ffcs do indeed act in this manner, there is not necessarily a 1:1 correspondence between aerosol size and drop size (see also podzimek and saad 1975). figure 7 shows time series of various parameters for the base case and ffc simulations corresponding to fig. 6. from early on in the simulation, ds maintains a large value, but exhibits periodic oscillations. this is due to the discrete nature of the model representation of the
What is the loading-dock model of decision support ?
this model predicates that scientists prepare models, products, forecasts, or other information for general use without consulting with, or understanding the needs of, the anticipated user--but with the expectation that users will find the information useful (cash et al. 2006
What is a good argument against the continued use of the loading-dock model of decision support ?
simply put, the evidence shows that it does not work (cash et al. 2006). merely putting out prepackaged information to be used by whoever needs it is misguided. the loading-dock notion is accompanied by several other mistaken ideas that govern the relationship between science and decision makers
What discipline of science made regular practice or use of the loading-dock model of support ?
until recently, the loading-dock model of decision support has been regular practice among climate scientists
the idea of decision support has been evolving from the provision of products to support for practices (ingram and stern 2007). until recently, the loading-dock model of decision support has been regular practice among climate scientists. this model predicates that scientists prepare models, products, forecasts, or other information for general use without consulting with, or understanding the needs of, the anticipated user--but with the expectation that users will find the information useful (cash et al. 2006). simply put, the evidence shows that it does not work (cash et al. 2006). merely putting out prepackaged information to be used by whoever needs it is misguided. the loading-dock notion is accompanied by several other mistaken ideas that govern the relationship between science and decision makers.
What is the least efficient reactor? Most?
biodegradable substances with a first-order reaction the plug-flow reactor presents the highest efficiency, followed by the cells-in-series system. the single complete-mix reactor is the least efficient
What does a more efficient system imply?
the statement that a system is more efficient than another implies that, if both present the same effluent concentration, the less efficient system requires a higher detention time. in other words, the less efficient system must have a larger reactor volume
What is the consideration of efficiency important in the design of?
this consideration is of great importance in the design of a treatment plant. table 8.7 presents a summary of the equations used to calculate the detention time required to obtain a certain concentration ce in the effluent. the interpretation of table 8.7 leads to the following points
biodegradable substances with a first-order reaction the plug-flow reactor presents the highest efficiency, followed by the cells-in-series system. the single complete-mix reactor is the least efficient. the statement that a system is more efficient than another implies that, if both present the same effluent concentration, the less efficient system requires a higher detention time. in other words, the less efficient system must have a larger reactor volume. this consideration is of great importance in the design of a treatment plant. table 8.7 presents a summary of the equations used to calculate the detention time required to obtain a certain concentration ce in the effluent. the interpretation of table 8.7 leads to the following points:
What is the biggest global threat of the 21st century ?
climate change is now widely recognised as the biggest global threat of the 21st century
What scenarios of climate conditions depend of ?
scenarios of climate conditions depend therefore on current and future trajectories of greenhouse gas emissions, mainly determined by socioeconomic development and climate policies
in a high-end scenario without mitigation strategies in place, what is the predicted average of the temperature for 2081-2100 ?
high-end scenarios, in which no mitigation strategies are in place, predict an average increase in surface temperature between 2*6degc and 4*8degc by the end of this century (2081-2100) relative to 1986-2005.2
climate change is now widely recognised as the biggest global threat of the 21st century.1 the fifth assessment report2 of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc), the leading international body for the assessment of climate change, has established that anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases represent the dominant cause for the warming of the planet. scenarios of climate conditions depend therefore on current and future trajectories of greenhouse gas emissions, mainly determined by socioeconomic development and climate policies.3 high-end scenarios, in which no mitigation strategies are in place, predict an average increase in surface temperature between 2*6degc and 4*8degc by the end of this century (2081-2100) relative to 1986-2005.2
What does IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report say about global warming?
the scientific evidence for warming of the earth's atmosphere and oceans continues to grow, leading the ipcc's fifth assessment report to again say that global warming is "unequivocal
Do many Americans accept the reality of global warming?
nonetheless, many americans do not yet accept the reality of global warming-- apparent from the results in figure 2
What did majority of respondents say about the likely beginning of effects of global warming?
asked when the effects of global warming will begin, 61 percent of respondents said "they have already begun" in 2008, a figure that declined to 49 percent in 2011, and rose to 59 percent this year-- back to the high levels of 2006 to 2008 prior to obama's election.38
is global warming occurring? the scientific evidence for warming of the earth's atmosphere and oceans continues to grow, leading the ipcc's fifth assessment report to again say that global warming is "unequivocal." nonetheless, many americans do not yet accept the reality of global warming-- apparent from the results in figure 2. asked when the effects of global warming will begin, 61 percent of respondents said "they have already begun" in 2008, a figure that declined to 49 percent in 2011, and rose to 59 percent this year-- back to the high levels of 2006 to 2008 prior to obama's election.38
What caused temperature change from October to May?
the temperature evolution from october to may can be explained partly by a delayed response to the local insolation curves of one to two months earlier (i.e., august to march
Does the heat capacity of oceans influence temperatures?
the heat capacity of the oceans is relatively large, leading to a typical lag of two to three months over ocean surfaces, while the thermal inertia is much smaller over continents, resulting in a typical lag of less than one month over land surfaces (e.g., crucifix et al ., 2002
Did the January temperatures show a mid-Holocene thermal optimum between 5 and 4 ka?
for instance, the january temperatures show a mid-holocene thermal optimum between 5 and 4 ka that is also present in the insolation curves for november (6 ka) and december (3 ka
the temperature evolution from october to may can be explained partly by a delayed response to the local insolation curves of one to two months earlier (i.e., august to march). the overall time lag depends on the thermal inertia of the system. the heat capacity of the oceans is relatively large, leading to a typical lag of two to three months over ocean surfaces, while the thermal inertia is much smaller over continents, resulting in a typical lag of less than one month over land surfaces (e.g., crucifix et al ., 2002). the lag of the temperature averaged over the area south of 60 8 s compared with insolation is one to two months for october to may. for instance, the january temperatures show a mid-holocene thermal optimum between 5 and 4 ka that is also present in the insolation curves for november (6 ka) and december (3 ka)
What B. burgdorferi genotypes are particularly invasive in humans?
the b. burgdorferi genotypes known to persist well in white-footed mice tend to be the ones that are particularly invasive in humans
What may be the result of a warming climate in the Midwest?
it is plausible that a warming climate will facilitate dominance by human-invasive strains of b. burgdorferi in the midwest, with potentially strong epidemiological consequences
When do larval ticks in areas of mild winters eclose and seek hosts?
in north american lyme-disease-endemic regions with relatively mild winters, including the northeastern united states, each year's cohort of larval ticks ecloses and begins seeking hosts in august
direct effects of climate on tick-borne pathogens have been neglected, but the potential exists for climatic conditions experienced by ticks to influence persistence and replication rates of pathogens before, during and after seasonal diapause. recently, both theoretical and empirical studies have addressed how climatic conditions, specifically the severity of winter cold, affect genotype frequencies of b. burgdorferi via influences on the phenology of larval and nymphal ticks [107,108]. in north american lyme-disease-endemic regions with relatively mild winters, including the northeastern united states, each year's cohort of larval ticks ecloses and begins seeking hosts in august, about two months after the prior generation's nymphal cohort has peaked in may or june. as a result of this time lag between host inoculation by nymphs and pathogen acquisition by larvae, larvae should acquire only those genotypes of b. burgdorferi that are able to persist in hosts for several months [107]. the b. burgdorferi genotypes known to persist well in white-footed mice tend to be the ones that are particularly invasive in humans [109-111]. in the midwestern united states, where winter temperatures are lower and the climate is more extreme, i. scapularis exhibits a 3-year life cycle with fairly synchronous nymphal and larval emergence, and the more persistent human-invasive genotypes thus tend to be under-represented [107,112]. consequently, it is plausible that a warming climate will facilitate dominance by human-invasive strains of b. burgdorferi in the midwest, with potentially strong epidemiological consequences [107]. similarly, if we assume that larval development and emergence will be accelerated relative to
What is the primary focus of this study?
the primary focus of this study is on mean arctic climate changes during the rest of the century
What topic was discussed?
although we have discussed the role of decadal variability and extreme cyclones
What topic requires future study?
we have not explored major modes of variability such as the arctic oscillation and how these might change under greenhouse forcing. while such questions are important and bear on the precise trajectory of future arctic climatic conditions, we leave this topic for future studies
the primary focus of this study is on mean arctic climate changes during the rest of the century. although we have discussed the role of decadal variability and extreme cyclones, we have not explored major modes of variability such as the arctic oscillation and how these might change under greenhouse forcing. while such questions are important and bear on the precise trajectory of future arctic climatic conditions, we leave this topic for future studies with ccsm4. acknowledgments. this work has been supported by the national science foundation (arc-0652838, arc-0628910, arc-0902068) and by the office of science (ber) of the u.s. department of energy through its support of the cesm project. we thank the computational and information systems laboratory (cisl) at the national center for atmospheric research. this research was enabled by cisl computing and storage resources. bluefire, a 4,064-processor ibm power6 resource with a peak of 77 teraflops provided more than 7.5 million computing hours, the glade highspeed disk resources provided 0.4 petabytes of dedicated disk, and cisl's 12-pb hpss archive provided over 1 petabyte of storage in support of this research project.
What was used to quantify the structure of boreal summer Rossby waves ?
in this study we look more generally at the characteristics of the boreal summer rossby waves, using merra
What was used to characterize the preferred regions ?
a stationary wave model (swm) is used to characterize the preferred regions
in this study we look more generally at the characteristics of the boreal summer rossby waves, using merra to quantify their structure and their impacts on surface meteorology on subseasonal time scales. a stationary wave model (swm) is used to characterize the preferred regions of forcing of the leading waves, and provide insights into the nature of the forcing terms. section 2 describes the data and our diagnostic approach. the results of our diagnostic analysis are presented in section 3. section 4 describes the results of the swm experiments with idealized and merrabased estimates of the forcing. the summary and conclusions are given in section 5.
What was the main reason that relatives had moved outside the area in the last 15 years?
relatives that moved outside the area in the past 15 years, mainly because of economic considerations (e.g. work in dhaka or abroad
What is the percent of people that said flood problems were the main reason for moving?
when asked, only 2 percent said that the main reason for moving is directly related to the flood problems experienced in the area
What are three things that suggest that migration plays a role as a flood coping mechanism?
however, given the negative relationship between the physical conditions in the area (severely flood prone) and the area's economic development (one of the poorest regions in bangladesh) and the substantial share of remittances in total household income (16%), it is our opinion that migration does play a role as a flood coping mechanism in combination with income diversification
socio-economic vulnerability and adaptation to environmental risk 18 finally, we also investigated possible migration patterns as a result of flood related problems in the case study area. about a quarter of the sample have relatives that moved outside the area in the past 15 years, mainly because of economic considerations (e.g. work in dhaka or abroad). when asked, only 2 percent said that the main reason for moving is directly related to the flood problems experienced in the area. this seems to imply that migration is not considered a direct coping mechanism. however, given the negative relationship between the physical conditions in the area (severely flood prone) and the area's economic development (one of the poorest regions in bangladesh) and the substantial share of remittances in total household income (16%), it is our opinion that migration does play a role as a flood coping mechanism in combination with income diversification.
What does this study compares?
this study compares the effects of controlling fossil - fuel soot (fs) versus solid - biofuel soot and gases (bsg) on global and arctic climate and atmospheric composition with a model that treats explicit microphysical (indirect) and radiative effects of soot on clouds and precipitation along with many other feedbacks
What is soot?
soot is an amorphous - shaped particle emitted into the air during fossil - fuel combustion, biofuel combustion, and open biomass burning
What is the shape of soot?
soot is an amorphous - shaped particle emitted into the air during fossil - fuel combustion, biofuel combustion, and open biomass burning
this study compares the effects of controlling fossil - fuel soot (fs) versus solid - biofuel soot and gases (bsg) on global and arctic climate and atmospheric composition with a model that treats explicit microphysical (indirect) and radiative effects of soot on clouds and precipitation along with many other feedbacks. controls of both are then placed in context with controls of methane and carbon dioxide in order to analyze the relative effectiveness of each at slowing global warming. soot is an amorphous - shaped particle emitted into the air during fossil - fuel combustion, biofuel combustion, and open biomass burning. fossil - fuel soot, emitted during diesel, jet fuel, kerosene, and un - pulverized coal combustion,
What was recently a controversial tax introduced in Denmark with the aim of increasing health?
cently a controversial tax on consumption of saturated fat has been introduced in denmark with the aim of increasing health, a tax which was accompanied by increased taxes on sugar products, soft drinks and cigarettes smed, 2012 
What is the purpose of this paper?
the purpose of this paper is to estimate the magnitude of the ghg mitigation potential of implementing consumption taxes on foods differentiated with respect to average ghg emission per kg of each type of food product consumed in denmark
What do the authors consider the welfare economic losses measured as?
furthermore, we consider the welfare economic losses measured as the change in consumer surplus of each of the proposed scenarios, which implies that we can approximate the costs for consumers of a changed diet
regulation of consumer behaviour through taxation is not new in relation to food consumption. taxes on stimulants like alcohol, tobacco and soft drinks have been used in many countries during the last decades. recently a controversial tax on consumption of saturated fat has been introduced in denmark with the aim of increasing health, a tax which was accompanied by increased taxes on sugar products, soft drinks and cigarettes smed, 2012 ). this tax was removed again 1st of january 2013. furthermore a planned increase in the taxation of several sugar products that was planned to take place from january 2013 skat 2012 ). the tax on saturated fat was the object of a huge debate concerning the justification for public intervention in food consumption smed, 2012 and the issue has attracted huge attention worldwide. the purpose of this paper is to estimate the magnitude of the ghg mitigation potential of implementing consumption taxes on foods differentiated with respect to average ghg emission per kg of each type of food product consumed in denmark. this issue has still only been quantified to a limited extent in the literature. furthermore, we consider the welfare economic losses measured as the change in consumer surplus of each of the proposed scenarios, which implies that we can approximate the costs for consumers of a changed diet. finally, we quantify the changes in daily intake of energy, saturated fat and sugar per person to assess the health consequences of the implied dietary changes. the remainder part of this paper is organised as follow. in section ''model and data'', we describe the model and the data used. in section ''simulation scenarios'', we consider the simulation scenarios, whereas in section ''results'' we discuss the results from these simulations. section ''discussion and conclusion'' is dedicated to a discussion and the conclusion. model and data model emissions of greenhouse gases from agricultural food production impose externalities on society as the damage costs caused by the emissions are not reflected in the price of foods. this leads to excess production and consumption from a societal perspective. ghgs from food production can, in the same manner as other forms of pollution, be subject to taxation in the form of a ''pigouvian tax'' pigou, 1957 ), which internalises the externalities. according to regulation theory, the cost-efficient reductions of greenhouse gas emissions are achieved by taxing production according to the level of emissions per unit of food for the individual producers multiplied by the social cost of emitting 1 kg ghg. in reality, this is not possible due to the cost of information and administration implied in this form of monitoring so instead, the imposed taxes are based on the average emission levels for each food category representing all food producers in the entire market rather than individual producers' specific emission levels. the bias introduced here is minor since the variation in ghg emissions between individual food producers of the same product is generally much smaller than the difference between food categories wirsenius et al., 2010 ). in addition, according to wirsenius et al. (2010) a tax should be imposed on consumers rather than producers in order to avoid a so-called ''carbon leakage'', meaning that co2 emissions in a country increase because of another country's effort to reduce its co2 emissions. if producers are taxed in denmark based on their products' emissions, it will reduce the danish producers' competitiveness. this will give the producers an incentive to move production abroad and an incentive for consumers in danish supermarkets to choose some now relatively cheaper foreign products. this would not only hurt danish agriculture and the danish trade balance, but would probably just move the ghg emissions caused by danish food consumption abroad, which would not be beneficial for the global climate. if consumers are taxed instead of producers, the competitiveness of danish producers would not be affected, since the products in the supermarket are taxed equally hard regardless of where they are produced. furthermore, it is worth noting that as markets for food products are characterised by near-perfect competition, one must assume that the tax burden between food producer and consumer does not depend on whether it is the producer or the consumer who is taxed since, on a long term basis, the tax in both cases is likely to end at the consumer. this implies that the modelling framework used in this paper is a tax on consumer level based on the average emission coefficient for the particular food in question in co2 equivalents per kg and the social cost of co2 emissions. data to predict the assumed tax induced changes in food consumption, ghg emissions as well as consumption of health related nutrients such as saturated fat and sugar a number of different
What is the total annual demand for final energy carriers during the 21st century?
365ej
To which sector was the use of coal reallocated?
to the production of synthetic liquids for the transportation sector
the default baseline scenario applies the reference case assumptions (intermediate levels of population, economic growth and fossil fuel availability) and does not impose limitations on atmospheric ghg concentrations. two general features characterize the development of the energy sector. first, total annual demand for final energy carriers grows over the 21st century from 365ej in 2010 to 890ej in 2100 (see fig. s3&4). this growth comes along with modernizing energy use by decreasing the share of solid fuels and non-transportation liquids and increasing the share of gases, transportation fuels and electricity. second, developing countries' share of final energy demand increases due to the assumed convergence of per-capita incomes. second, global annual primary energy production shown in fig. 1 grows from 515ej in 2010 to 1260ej in 2100. fossil fuels play the dominant role until mid-century; thereafter the share of non-fossil fuels increases to supply electricity. coal is partially reallocated from the electricity sector to the production of synthetic liquids for the transportation sector to substitute for crude oil after its peak. gas and coal use show strong variations between regions due to transportation costs and relative abundance of domestic primary energy supplies.
What we and others have argued about?
we and others have argued that the conservative movement, fearful of the regulatory implications of climate change, and seeking to defend the current economic system built on fossil fuel use, has been the driving force behind organized climate change denial
What has Gary C. Jacobson's found?
their success is confirmed by gary c. jacobson's finding that climate change (and environmental protection) are components of a general liberal-conservative dimension differentiating american voters into republicans and democrats
Which effects can we see?
we can see the effects of partisan and ideological alignment by comparing the global warming views of republicans who identify as conservatives and democrats who identify as liberals with the 2016 gallup data, a comparison that is presented in table 2
in fact, we and others have argued that the conservative movement, fearful of the regulatory implications of climate change, and seeking to defend the current economic system built on fossil fuel use, has been the driving force behind organized climate change denial.54 further, to accomplish their goal, conservative activists have managed to elevate "climate change to the status of a litmus test of cultural politics in the u.s., up there with abortion, guns, god, gays, immigration and taxes."55 their success is confirmed by gary c. jacobson's finding that climate change (and environmental protection) are components of a general liberal-conservative dimension differentiating american voters into republicans and democrats.56 it is therefore not surprising that an increasingly conservative republican party has embraced denial, at the levels of both elites and-- as we have shown in this article--the general public. we can see the effects of partisan and ideological alignment by comparing the global warming views of republicans who identify as conservatives and democrats who identify as liberals with the 2016 gallup data, a comparison that is presented in table 2.57 in all cases we see a substantial rise in the percentage difference between these two ideologically aligned partisan groups compared to that between all republicans and democrats shown in table 1.58 indeed, the differences are extremely large, ranging from a low of 49 percentage points for seeing global warming as posing a serious threat in one's lifetime to a high
What can deriver warming experiment?
temperature sensitivities of vegetation productivity
What to expect for  For warming experiments field measurements?
for warming experiments field measurements, the sensitivity of npp to an applied change in temperature (generally stepwise), is estimated as the ratio of the relative difference between npp in warmed minus control plots to the applied warming magnitude
What is the mean annual temperature for 'climate analogue' grid points?
the mean annual temperature differs by less than 1 deg c and mean annual precipitation by less than 50 mm from the conditions at each experimental
temperature sensitivities of vegetation productivity derived warming experiment. for warming experiments field measurements, the sensitivity of npp to an applied change in temperature (generally stepwise), is estimated as the ratio of the relative difference between npp in warmed minus control plots to the applied warming magnitude. the estimated temperature sensitivity at each experimental site is then compared with the ratio of cint nppestimated from model simulations and with the multiple regression method eqn (1) to the 30-year average npp. this ratio is hereafter called r cint npp. the model output is sampled at the grid point containing the experimental site. in addition, we also extract modeled sensitivities in 'climate analogue' grid points where the mean annual temperature differs by less than 1 deg c and mean annual precipitation by less than 50 mm from the conditions at each experimental
What contains Aura MLS ?
aura mls contains more than an order of magnitude more data in a monthly grid box than all of the other data sets combined
A method of creating a merged data is?
in particular, one method of creating a merged data set is to merge the source record anomalies rather than the absolute values. in this case, the anomalies may be adjusted so that their mean difference is zero during the overlap period
One advantage of this approach is?
one advantage of this approach is that any unphysical differences in the seasonal cycles between two instruments are removed by only considering their anomalies
nk. by combining data in this way, the combined product is dominated by the aura mls measurements after their introduction in august 2004, as aura mls contains more than an order of magnitude more data in a monthly grid box than all of the other data sets combined. in the pre-aura mls period the data density is often low for a single instrument in a given 10*latitude band, so combining data using a weighted mean based on the number of available measurements (rather than simply averaging the two monthly means, for example) gives a more representative value. we note that there are a number of alternative methods for creating a merged and gridded data set (randel and wu, 2007; froidevaux et al., 2015). in particular, one method of creating a merged data set is to merge the source record anomalies rather than the absolute values. in this case, the anomalies may be adjusted so that their mean difference is zero during the overlap period. one advantage of this approach is that any unphysical differences in the seasonal cycles between two instruments are removed by only considering their anomalies. however, since a seasonal cycle must be imposed in order to convert back to physical mixing ratio values, this approach implicitly removes any long-term changes in the seasonal cycle between two instruments. furthermore, it can be shown that this approach is equivalent to applying a seasonally varying offset adjustment, which inflates the degrees of freedom by a factor of 12 compared to the standard approach applied in swoosh. we note that in swoosh the necessary information (e.g., mean values, n uncertainties, individual instrument anomaly records) is stored for each of the satellite source records for users to be able to create and explore alternative methodologies for combining the satellite products, based on "anomaly matching" or other methods. it is also possible to implement the swoosh combined product definition outlined above with subsets of the available satellite data (e.g., with just haloe and aura mls).
What are the daily weather data used?
the daily weather data on precipitation, temperature (maximum and minimum), solar radiation, wind speed and relative humidity at all the grid locations were used
From which institute the Latitude and longtitude information has been gathered
latitude by longitude grid points (figure 1) has been obtained from iitm (indian institute of tropical meteorology), pune, india
What is the procedure used for control the climate data
the hadrm2 grid has been superimposed on the subbasins for deriving the weighted means of the inputs for each of the sub basins. the centroid of each sub-basin is then taken as the location for the weather station to be used in the swat model
the data generated in transient experiments (hadrm2) by the hadley centre for climate prediction, uk, at a regional climate model resolution of 0.44deg x 0.44deg latitude by longitude grid points (figure 1) has been obtained from iitm (indian institute of tropical meteorology), pune, india. the daily weather data on precipitation, temperature (maximum and minimum), solar radiation, wind speed and relative humidity at all the grid locations were used. the hadrm2 grid has been superimposed on the subbasins for deriving the weighted means of the inputs for each of the sub basins. the centroid of each sub-basin is then taken as the location for the weather station to be used in the swat model. this procedure has been used for the present/control (representing series 1981-2000) and the future/ghg (representing series 2041-2060) climate data.
What is being analyzed here?
here we analyze the skill of the different rcms in reproducing the mean precipitation regime, the seasonal cycle and the distributions of daily precipitation (using q - q plots
What models show the highest and lowest spatial correlation?
the lowest spatial correlation with the spain02 climatology is shown by the cnrm model r 0.55), whereas the largest correlation is obtained with knmi model r 0.85
What is the historical period in yearly precipitation climatology being looked at?
the yearly precipitation climatology for the period 1961 - 1990
here we analyze the skill of the different rcms in reproducing the mean precipitation regime, the seasonal cycle and the distributions of daily precipitation (using q - q plots). 4.1. yearly climatology the yearly precipitation climatology for the period 1961 - 1990 for each of the nine rcms is shown in figures 2d - 2l; for the sake of comparison, figures 2a and 2c show the spain02 and era - 40 climatologies. figure 2 shows that the rcms present a great diversity of results as compared with spain02, although all of them represent the north - south precipitation gradient and exhibit signatures of the most influential mountain ranges in the area. the lowest spatial correlation with the spain02 climatology is shown by the cnrm model r 0.55), whereas the largest correlation is obtained with knmi model r 0.85). knmi used a wider boundary relaxation zone for the
How can we better understand tickborne disease in relation to climate change?
a unified conceptual model linking climate change to tickborne diseasewould be helpful in guiding better understanding
Can climate affect the survival of ticks?
climate variability could affect tick survival, host-seeking patterns and phenology, as well as replication rates of tick-borne pathogens
Does the lifespan of the ixodes species differ from climate to climate?
given the long and complex life cycle of ixodes species, it is not surprising that ticks in different regions appear to be constrained by different climatic influences
a unified conceptual model linking climate change to tickborne diseasewould be helpful in guiding better understanding (figure 1). guided by this conceptual model, future research could explore the specific, local abiotic variables affected by regional or global changes in climate; the impact of those abiotic variables on behavioural, developmental and demographic processes of ticks, and on the dynamics of tick-borne pathogens. an understanding of climatic impacts on the vector and pathogen will allow researchers to predict how risk of human exposure to these pathogens will change as the climate continues to change. and, finally, climate-driven changes in risk, together with changes in human behaviour, will allow epidemiological patterns to be forecast. while it is clear that the developmental rates and timing of ixodes spp. are temperature-dependent, the consequences of earlieremergence and activity for the tick population dynamics and disease risk are not well understood [115]. most models that incorporate these temperature-dependent developmental rates have assumed constant mortality rates during development and questing thus, longer development and activity periods inevitably lead to reduced survival. while recent models by dobson et al. [30,87] and estrada-pena et al. incorporate more realistic controls on questing behaviour and, in the former, host contact rates, these are still founded on best guesses and scant relationships derived from little empirical evidence. experimental studies of the effects of condition-dependent tick behaviour on population dynamics and host-vector-pathogen encounter rates are needed. there is a need for theory and empirical studies of tick questing behaviour and particularly success in finding a host under various climatic conditions. to what degree are questing ticks limited by conditions (i.e. by time available to quest) versus by host density? of course these are not independent--if hosts are abundant then even a small amount of time questing may suffice--but the precise relationship between these two aspects of host-finding is not clear, and may be critical if, for instance, host density is more important than climatic constraints on questing success over a range of conditions, this would change the focus of discussion. note, too, that the discussion so far assumes that host density and activity are not influenced by climatic conditions, but neither assumption is safe. in particular, it will be important to determine how host populations may change in distribution and abundance in a changing climate. given the long and complex life cycle of ixodes species, it is not surprising that ticks in different regions appear to be constrained by different climatic influences focusing on the relative influence of climate on development, questing and host encounters, and overwintering survival in different regions may prove fruitful. models that embody alternative hypotheses also need to be compared in a robust statistical framework. there is also a need to better understand what controls the phenology of nymphal emergence and activity. (at least in north america, it appears that larval emergence is controlled by temperature-dependent rates of development.) if the emergence of nymphs is not strongly influenced by changing temperatures or has a different relationship with temperature than larvae, then there is potential for increasing or decreasing delays between larval and nymphal activity and therefore for selection favouring different strains of pathogens. for mosquito-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue fever, experimental and modelling studies have demonstrated that climate variability in the form of daily temperature range can affect risk of disease transmission [118,119]. in both cases, models suggest that incorporating daily temperature variation (as opposed to including only a daily mean temperature) when baseline conditions are cool would increase the probability of an outbreak. however, when baseline conditions are hot, including a daily temperature range is likely to reduce the chance of an outbreak. to date, studies of the effects of temperature variability on the dynamics of tick-borne disease appear to be lacking, but variability could be important nevertheless [58,120]. climate variability could affect tick survival, host-seeking patterns and phenology, as well as replication rates of tick-borne pathogens. another major challenge in understanding the relative importance of directional climate change in dynamics of tickborne disease is disentangling the climatic effects from temporal variability unrelated to climate change. recent studies in other disease systems, such as cholera and malaria, have provided models in which causes of fluctuating disease risk from factors intrinsic to the parasites and hosts are distinguished from extrinsic factors such as warming trends [83,121]. similar approaches applied to long-term datasets on tick-borne disease could be illuminating. data-model fusion approaches using hierarchical state-space structures also can be useful in integrating multiple data sources (e.g. entomological and epidemiological), spatial scales, and explicitly
What is done to narrow uncertainties?
improved health surveillance data, more detailed epidemiologic analysis, and collaboration with nonhealth disciplines should help to narrow these uncertainties
How do models vary?
models vary in the extent to which they account for changes in nonclimatic confounders such as the protective effect of adaptation, socioeconomic development, and technologic advances or, conversely, increased vulnerability through population aging and inequity in income or health care provision
What issues in methodology are encountered?
the particular characteristics of climate change cause an additional range of methodologic issues that may be more difficult to resolve
the particular characteristics of climate change cause an additional range of methodologic issues that may be more difficult to resolve. compared with more traditional risk factors, actions to mitigate or adapt to climate change affect human health through a much wider variety of mechanisms and over much longer periods. models vary in the extent to which they account for changes in nonclimatic confounders such as the protective effect of adaptation, socioeconomic development, and technologic advances or, conversely, increased vulnerability through population aging and inequity in income or health care provision. improved health surveillance data, more detailed epidemiologic analysis, and collaboration with nonhealth disciplines should help to narrow these uncertainties. the comparative risk assessment framework described here attempts to estimate only the consequences of changing levels of the risk factor rather than the total effect of any intervention to reduce the risk factor. examples include ignoring the health co-benefits of reduced air pollution (cifuentes et al. 2001a, 2001b) or, conversely, the possibility that interventions that reduce fossil fuel consumption may suppress economic development and therefore health status. there are several levels of uncertainty inherent in the process of estimating climate change health risks. because anthropogenic climate change is a long-term phenomenon that is superimposed onto natural climate
Predicted by most climate change models, what is there an increase of?
as predicted by most climate change models (osborne et al. 2000), there is an increase in the frequency and duration of extreme droughts, mortalities can increase substantially (figure 7
What is an example of a species that can be favoured?
as a result, some species, such as p. latifolia can be favoured and the composition of communities currently dominated by q
Which scenarios are much more uncertain than temperature changes?
in gcm precipitation scenarios (both in terms of mean changes and of distribution) are much more uncertain than temperature changes (palutikof wigley 1996
regarding the simulations under climate change, the model predicted that increased temperature (and et) will cause higher mortalities in the two studied populations. however, the most important factor is predicted to be the duration of drought events. q. ilex seems to be very close to its limit to cope with water stress under the current climatic conditions, at least in the study area. if, as predicted by most climate change models (osborne et al. 2000), there is an increase in the frequency and duration of extreme droughts, mortalities can increase substantially (figure 7). as a result, some species, such as p. latifolia can be favoured and the composition of communities currently dominated by q. ilex can change drastically in some areas. it should be noted, however, that in gcm precipitation scenarios (both in terms of mean changes and of distribution) are much more uncertain than temperature changes (palutikof wigley 1996).
What is a random forest?
a combination of trees with each tree dependent on the values of a random vector of predictors sampled independently and with the same distribution for all trees within the forest
What are the comparisons between the exploratory analyses on the different algorithms?
canonical discriminant functions, climate envelope correlations, and the logistic form of a generalized linear function
What are tree-based methods?
data-partitioning algorithms that recursively split observations into groups to produce a tree with branches and nodes
exploratory analyses were made to compare several different algorithms. although not presented, the comparisons included canonical discriminant functions, climate envelope correlations, and the logistic form of a generalized linear function. the technique yielding the lowest errors and best verification was random forests (breiman 2001), a multivariate regression tree. tree-based methods are data-partitioning algorithms that recursively split observations into groups to produce a tree with branches and nodes (hastie et al. 2001). according to breiman, random forests is a combination of trees with each tree dependent on the values of a random vector of predictors sampled independently and with the same distribution for all trees within the forest. because the generalization error converges to a limit as the number of trees in the forest becomes large, colinearity and overfitting are not issues. of the versions of random forests that are available, we used r (r development core team 2004), which is based on the original programming of leo breiman and adele cutler (liaw and wiener 2002). the algorithm builds a set of independent regression trees from an input data set. the trees in their aggregate are called a forest. the process begins with the drawing of a bootstrap sample consisting of ca. 64% of the total number of observations. this sample is used to build a tree, while the omitted observations, collectively termed the out-of-bag sample, are used to compute classification errors. at each node of a tree, a random sample of the predictor variables is selected, ordinarily equaling the square root of the number of predictors. of these, the variable that minimizes the classification error is selected. nodes are further split until no more improvement can be achieved. predictions are made by running an observation down all trees in all forests. a ''vote'' concerning the classification of that observation is then available from each tree. votes from all trees in all forests are collected and can be presented as a a proportion of the favorable votes to the total or b the plurality.
Explain migrant avian herbivores study?
the study of the migrant avian herbivores using the western palaearctic flyway impinges on several ecological issues of general interest
Who is the potentially important agents of nutrient transfer ?
birds are potentially important agents of nutrient transfer between systems at the landscape level
Explain daily movements of birds?
the daily movements of birds between feeding and roosting areas may cause massive transport of nutrients, especially where grain or other agricultural crops are rapidly ingested and subsequently digested at roosts
the study of the migrant avian herbivores using the western palaearctic flyway impinges on several ecological issues of general interest. on account of the sheer numbers involved, and because the rapid transit digestive strategy implies that the bulk of herbage ingested is deposited as droppings, these birds are potentially important agents of nutrient transfer between systems at the landscape level. on the other hand, the transformation of leafy plant matter into droppings also reduces litter accumulation and hence may decrease n mineralization rates in heavily grazed vegetation (van wijnen et al ., 1999). the daily movements of birds between feeding and roosting areas may cause massive transport of nutrients, especially where grain or other agricultural crops are rapidly ingested and subsequently digested at roosts. post et al (1998) have quantified this flow in a 50 ha refuge in new mexico, where waterfowl introduced 40% of n and 75% of p entering the wetland annually. on the seasonal scale, transport of nutrients between sites along the flyway include nutrients stored in the body that are
What is the role of orographic land-atmosphere interactions in the spa fundamental modes of spatial variability?
the role of orographic land-atmosphere interactions in the spa fundamental modes of spatial variability: a synoptic-scale mode linked to global climate controls; a synoptic-scale mode linked to regional climate controls related to monsoon intensity and land (barros et al., 2004
Do orographically produced gravity waves have effects on rainfall?
this is consistent with the results from reinking et al. (2000), who showed that orographically produced gravity waves can have important effects on rainfall
seasonal and interannual variability of storms and implications for erosion processes 35 tion of ground observations, satellite imagery, and model simulations of dominant weather systems for current climate conditions. the role of orographic land-atmosphere interactions in the spa fundamental modes of spatial variability: a synoptic-scale mode linked to global climate controls; a synoptic-scale mode linked to regional climate controls related to monsoon intensity and land (barros et al., 2004). in this work, we show how independent model simulations of representative weather events (monsoon depression and wintertime storms) appear to effectively capture the synoptic and mesoscale modes of variability.  a unique pattern of gravity waves, with vertical motion forming band-like structures oriented roughly parallel to the dominant topographic ridges, which force the waves. environmental conditions favor the formation of vertically deep waves, with phase lines that tilt into the wind, leading to the simulated phase difference between topography and vertical motion consistent with  as lower cloud tops often are associated with ridges, and higher cloud tops over the intervening slopes. cloud liquid water content (and by inference rainfall) is maximized where updrafts and the potential temperature gradient are stronger. the simulated spatial patterns of rainfall are consistent with observations from both monsoon onsets, which suggests that that orographic lifting is the key rainfall process (lang and barros, 2002). depending on the synoptic conditions, the gravity wave cells of vertical motion would be expected to modulate the intensity of any incoming convective activity, as well as to prompt the localized release of low-level convective instability in the regions of forced ascent (barros and lang, 2003a). this is consistent with the results from reinking et al. (2000), who showed that orographically produced gravity waves can have important effects on rainfall. although a much longer numerical integration is required to fully elucidate the effects of radiative processes and terrainatmosphere interactions over longer time scales, these model simulations of principal weather systems imply a strong association between rainfall and spatial wind patterns modulated by orography. this association is supported by the analysis of satellite imagery of clouds. thus, we should expect relative distributions of rainfall on the southern slopes to remain constant from
Why the mixing requirements should be fulfilled?
in order to guarantee the mixing energy required for maintaining the suspended solids dispersed in the liquid medium, the mixing requirements should be fulfilled
What is the power level for  complete dispersion of the suspended solids in the aerated lagoon?
to ensure complete dispersion of the suspended solids in the aerated lagoon, the power level should be: ph >= 3 0 w m3
in order to guarantee the mixing energy required for maintaining the suspended solids dispersed in the liquid medium, the mixing requirements should be fulfilled. the definition of the power for the aerators is then dictated by the concept of the power level as seen in section 15.4b, the power level represents the energy introduced by the aerators per unit reactor volume, and is obtained by: ph p v (16.6) where: ph power level (w/m3) p power for aeration (w) v reactor volume (m3) to ensure complete dispersion of the suspended solids in the aerated lagoon, the power level should be: ph >= 3 0 w m3
Are low emission technologies or fossil fuels currently more expensive?
these technologies are currently more expensive than their fossil fuel-based counterparts
True or False: Do the costs of technologies fall over time?
historical experience has repeatedly shown that the costs of technologies fall over time
Are low emission technologies of fossil fuels expected to be cheaper in the future?
low-emission technologies are likely to be even cheaper in the future
therefore, the positive cost of mitigation to the global economy will mainly come from the need to deploy some mix of low-emission technologies to substitute away from fossil fuels. these technologies are currently more expensive than their fossil fuel-based counterparts. even here, however, two factors are likely to limit the risk of high costs. first, the costs at present of such technologies are higher than incumbent high-emission technologies, but not by the orders of magnitude that would truly send the costs of stabilisation sky-rocketing (see our simple calculations below). second, historical experience has repeatedly shown that the costs of technologies fall over time, through learning and economies of scale. so, low-emission technologies are likely to be even cheaper in the future, perhaps, in a small minority of instances, becoming cheaper than the 'marker' technology (i.e. the assumed, high-emission incumbent) even before emissions intensity is priced in.
what is the direct causes and how can one manage his land degration.
land uses and a combination of processes such as: soil erosion, deterioration of soil properties and long-term vegetation loss
why is West Africa the major concern
where about 65 percent of the cultivable lands have degraded
why is Land degradation, desertification, and deforestation are factors that potentially result in mobility as a household adaptation strategy.
as defined by article 1 of the convention to combat desertification, is defined as a "reduction or loss of biological or economic productivity of ecosystems resulting from climatic variations, land uses and a combination of processes such as: soil erosion, deterioration of soil properties and long-term vegetation loss
land degradation, desertification, and deforestation are factors that potentially result in mobility as a household adaptation strategy.46 land degradation, as defined by article 1 of the convention to combat desertification, is defined as a "reduction or loss of biological or economic productivity of ecosystems resulting from climatic variations, land uses and a combination of processes such as: soil erosion, deterioration of soil properties and long-term vegetation loss." thus, losses of land productivity are inextricably linked to climate change. although precise estimates of the land affected by degradation are difficult to obtain, some estimates suggest that more than one-third of drylands are affected by land degradation.47 land degradation is a major concern in west africa, where about 65 percent of the cultivable lands have degraded.48 from 20002005, west and central africa lost 1.36m ha of forest cover per year, or a total of 67,800 sq km.49 more than 300 million people in africa already live with water scarcity, and areas experiencing water shortages are likely to increase by almost a third by 2050.50
Who incorporated anti-environmentalism and climate change denial?
the tea party readily incorporated anti-environmentalism and climate change denial into its agenda
What is the perfect score for environmental voting?
where 100 represents a perfect record of pro-environmental votes on legislation
Who identified to be hold substantially more skeptical views of climate change?
those who identify with the tea party hold substantially more skeptical views of climate change than do typical republicans in the general public
the growing partisan polarization has been especially evident on environmental protection, an issue that historically enjoyed a fair degree of bipartisan support.20 as the republican party has moved rightward, especially in terms of opposing governmental regulations in principle, environmental protection measures and the u.s. environmental protection agency in particular have come under increasing attack by republicans.21 the result has been a dramatic increase in partisan polarization among both political elites, such as members of congress, and the general public.22 the former is evident in figure 1, which shows the environmental voting scores compiled by the league of conservation voters (where 100 represents a perfect record of pro-environmental votes on legislation) for members of the two parties in both the u.s. senate and the u.s. house of representatives from 1970 through last year.23 what was once a modest tendency for congressional republicans to be less proenvironmental than their democratic counterparts has become a chasm--with republicans taking near-unanimous antienvironmental stances on relevant legislation in recent years, especially 2015. not surprisingly, given its backing from the koch brothers and others promoting an intense anti-regulatory ideology, the tea party readily incorporated anti-environmentalism and climate change denial into its agenda.24 in fact, studies show that those who identify with the tea party hold substantially more skeptical views of climate change than do typical republicans in the general public.25 perhaps more important are the astroturf campaigns (named for their pseudo-grass-roots nature) against climate legislation mounted by tea party groups. as jane mayer puts it, "as protesters erupted in generalized rage in the spring and summer of 2009, americans for prosperity, freedomworks, and the other secretly funded tea party groups succeeded to a remarkable extent in channeling the populist anger into the climate fight."26
What are synthetic scenarios?
synthetic scenarios synthetic scenarios, sometimes also called "arbitrary" or "incremental" scenarios, are the simplest climate change scenarios available. their main use is in sensitivity analysis: determination of the response of a particular system (e.g., crops, streams) to a range of climatic variations. a synthetic scenario is constructed by adjusting a historical record for a particular climate variable by an arbitrary amount (e.g., increasing precipitation by 10
synthetic scenarios synthetic scenarios, sometimes also called "arbitrary" or "incremental" scenarios, are the simplest climate change scenarios available. their main use is in sensitivity analysis: determination of the response of a particular system (e.g., crops, streams) to a range of climatic variations. a synthetic scenario is constructed by adjusting a historical record for a particular climate variable by an arbitrary amount (e.g., increasing precipitation by 10%). most studies using synthetic scenarios tend to apply constant changes throughout the year, although some have introduced seasonal changes. analogue scenarios analogue scenarios make use of existing climate information, either at the site in question (temporal analogues) or from another location that currently experiences a climate anticipated to resemble the future climate of the site under study (spatial analogues). temporal analogues may be constructed from paleoclimate information derived from either the geological record (e.g., from fossil flora and fauna remains, sedimentary deposits, tree rings or ice cores) or from the historical instrumental record. analogue scenarios have the advantage of representing conditions that have actually occurred, so we know that they are physically plausible, and there are generally data available for a number of climate variables. nevertheless, since the causes of changes in the analogue climate are generally not triggered by greenhouse gases, some have argued that these types of scenarios are of limited value in quantitative impact assessments of future climate change.(43)
Vanniere et al 65 Z-score maxima concides with what?
vanniere et al. 65 z-score maxima coincide with the period of greatest woodland development in the mid holocene (turner et al., 2008, 2010; figures 3 and 8). this may also apply to some lowland southwestern mediterranean sites with a strong moisture deficit, such as navarres (spain) which experienced increased fire frequencies during the mid-holocene with increased precipitation (carrion and van geel, 1999
This indicates what?
g moisture deficit, such as navarres (spain) which experienced increased fire frequencies during the mid-holocene with increased precipitation (carrion and van geel, 1999). this indicates strong regional-scale differences in terms of species composition and vegetation structure/funtional types, expecially between the western and central mediterranean and since the early holocene which are not explainable by land-use only
Table 1 presents what?
table 1 presents the vegetation and bioclimate surrounding each site, from this table and from figure 6 (results data), it appears that regrouping records according to vegetation type does result in common trends in fire activity
vanniere et al. 65 z-score maxima coincide with the period of greatest woodland development in the mid holocene (turner et al., 2008, 2010; figures 3 and 8). this may also apply to some lowland southwestern mediterranean sites with a strong moisture deficit, such as navarres (spain) which experienced increased fire frequencies during the mid-holocene with increased precipitation (carrion and van geel, 1999). this indicates strong regional-scale differences in terms of species composition and vegetation structure/funtional types, expecially between the western and central mediterranean and since the early holocene which are not explainable by land-use only. for instance, in spain, pinus sp. has played a dominant role in long-term forest development. in italy instead, rather mesophilous taxa like ostrya, abies, fagus, and carpinus were more important (e.g. de beaulieu et al., 2005). differences in dominant species observed in palynological records across a west-east gradient have not affected the regional fire history as common trends have emerged between charcoal series from italy and spain ('med. west 40-45' and 'med. west south 40'). table 1 presents the vegetation and bioclimate surrounding each site, from this table and from figure 6 (results data), it appears that regrouping records according to vegetation type does result in common trends in fire activity.
Other than fire behavior changes, what influences the atmospheric fate of fire emissions?
in addition to the fire behavior changes, the atmospheric fate of fire emissions can be influenced by changes to climatic phenomena that affect atmospheric transport
What was the exceptional ozone episode during the 1997 ENSO and IOD events associated with?
an exceptional ozone episode during the 1997 enso and iod events was associated with anomalous subsidence bringing ozone toward the surface causing an increase of tropospheric ozone column that was further affected by the fire emissions chemistry
What is exposed during warmer winters the annual tundra thaw moves north during warmer winters?
during warmer winters the thaw moves north, exposing a greater carbon reserve to liberation through fire
in addition to the fire behavior changes, the atmospheric fate of fire emissions can be influenced by changes to climatic phenomena that affect atmospheric transport. el ni~no-induced meteorology resulted in enhanced transport of boreal forest fires emission from siberia to canada, and high north atlantic oscillation index resulted in transport of emissions to higher latitudes over europe.[125]an exceptional ozone episode during the 1997 enso and iod events was associated with anomalous subsidence bringing ozone toward the surface causing an increase of tropospheric ozone column that was further affected by the fire emissions chemistry.forest fires in siberia may have contributed to a rise in atmospheric co2 concentrations of greater than 2 ppm per year during 2002 and 2003.[126]a statistically significant relationship between interannual variability of siberian forest fires and climate indices including summer temperatures and precipitation has been demonstrated.[120]boreal forest fires occur annually at the onset of the tundra thaw when natural fires and those set by subsistence farming practices become uncontrolled. during warmer winters the thaw moves north, exposing a greater carbon reserve to liberation through fire. permafrosts create a heat sink during summer months so that reduction in area of permafrost will result in heat being transferred to the atmosphere, and hence enhanced warming. through this process, projections suggest that the arctic may be a carbon source as early as the 2020s,[127]and paleo evidence suggests that tundra fires are presently occurring at greater frequency than during the last 5,000 years.[128]
What may flooding events be useful for?
flooding events may help to maintain or improve the conservation status of wetlands
Is it always possible to determine the risk of a decision?
for most decisions it may be neither possible nor desirable to determine the risk as a single figure or statement
Are risky decisions associated with one single outcome?
risky decisions are usually associated with a number or range of potential outcomes: for many real-world decisions these outcomes may be either detrimental or beneficial, depending on the decision-maker's perspective
the focus of many risk analyses is about making decisions concerning the management of rare (i.e. low probability) and/or uncertain detrimental events, for example avoiding the risk of extreme flooding. risky decisions are usually associated with a number or range of potential outcomes: for many real-world decisions these outcomes may be either detrimental or beneficial, depending on the decision-maker's perspective. for example, flooding events may help to maintain or improve the conservation status of wetlands, but at a cost to property or farming incomes. these different outcomes may be associated with different probabilities, such as the probability of a river level exceeding the height of a flood defence. associated with each possible outcome of a decision is a level of performance or 'payoff' (the balance between all the benefits and disbenefits). for a detrimental event, the pay-off is negative, but in the absence of the event, the pay-off may be zero (see section 2.6 for further details). however, most decisions entail some level of investment and the associated cost will usually enter into the calculation of the pay-off. the decision-maker will be interested to identify options or strategies that, in some sense, minimise the disbenefits or maximise the benefits associated with the risk. for most decisions it may be neither possible nor desirable to determine the risk as a single figure or statement. often it is more useful to retain and communicate the likelihood and impact components of risk. this allows the decision-maker rather than the risk assessor to decide policy and ethical issues. for example, the decision-maker may wish to implement a policy of risk-aversion. this requires information on the relative likelihoods of severe as opposed to low-consequence outcomes. the impact of different decision options on all the components that contribute to the overall risk can then be assessed (even though the overall value of risk may be similar). similarly, it may be possible to assess all impact types in common currency, but the decision-maker may well wish to impose his own value-judgements on different types of impact (environmental, social, economic, for example). it is generally, therefore,
What is the temperature-death difference?
choosing a baseline time period for the temperature-mortality relationship is also important. temperature-mortality relationships in the same city can be very different between the 1960s and the 2000s
What is socio-economic development?
differences could be due to socio-economic development, demographic change and population acclimatization. differences in the time periods used to estimate the historical temperature-mortality relationships also make it difficult to compare projections between studies
What is daily death data?
figure 1 highlights the variability of different time periods used in each study. as daily mortality data often are not available prior to 1990 in many cities, it is recommended to use the time period 1996-2005, which centered on 2000, as the baseline
choosing a baseline time period for the temperature-mortality relationship is also important. temperature-mortality relationships in the same city can be very different between the 1960s and the 2000s. differences could be due to socio-economic development, demographic change and population acclimatization. differences in the time periods used to estimate the historical temperature-mortality relationships also make it difficult to compare projections between studies. figure 1 highlights the variability of different time periods used in each study. as daily mortality data often are not available prior to 1990 in many cities, it is recommended to use the time period 1996-2005, which centered on 2000, as the baseline.
Despite being concerned about the climate change, what is probably lacking with Mainstream Americans, Liberal Left and Alarmists?
mainstream americans are also highly concerned about climate change. like the liberal left and alarmists, however, they probably lack a clear understanding of the changes in behavior they might make, and the possible costs and benefits to themselves, their communities, and the world at large associated with those behaviors
What kind of message is more likely to resonate with Mainstream Americans, Liberal Left and Alarmists?
messages emphasizing energy independence and the economic benefits of conservation are more likely to resonate with them. they may best be reached through newspapers and the internet--their primary sources of information
What kind of message is more likely to resonate with the Religious Right?
the religious right, who also generally do not perceive climate change as a significant threat, may be most receptive to messages framed in moral terms, including the stewardship ethic found in genesis and the moral duty of christians to help the poor and needy (i.e., those millions likely to be most affected by climate change). television and talk radio may be the most effective channels for reaching members of this audience
mainstream americans are also highly concerned about climate change. like the liberal left and alarmists, however, they probably lack a clear understanding of the changes in behavior they might make, and the possible costs and benefits to themselves, their communities, and the world at large associated with those behaviors. given the size, position, and importance of this segment, we encourage immediate in-depth investigation of this group's climate change perceptions and behaviors with appropriate research methods. * optimists, with strongly individualist worldviews and low perceptions of climate change as a threat, are unlikely to be receptive to most environmentalist messages about climate change. messages emphasizing energy independence and the economic benefits of conservation are more likely to resonate with them. they may best be reached through newspapers and the internet--their primary sources of information. * the religious right, who also generally do not perceive climate change as a significant threat, may be most receptive to messages framed in moral terms, including the stewardship ethic found in genesis and the moral duty of christians to help the poor and needy (i.e., those millions likely to be most affected by climate change). television and talk radio may be the most effective channels for reaching members of this audience.
What incorporating Adaptive Capacity and Environmental Susceptibility into conservation planning will represent?
incorporating adaptive capacity and environmental susceptibility into conservation planning will represent a significant shift in how many resource managers and donors approach conservation issues
In what conservation policies based on integrated analysis of Environmental Susceptibility and Adaptive Capacity are more likely to result?
conservation policies based on integrated analysis of environmental susceptibility and adaptive capacity are more likely to result in actions that enhance the ability of reef ecosystems and local communities who depend on them to cope with both the expected and unexpected impacts of climate change
What is the condition for the current emphasis on the creation of closures works?
will only work socially and ecologically in a limited region where high adaptive capacity and low environmental susceptibility intersect
incorporating adaptive capacity and environmental susceptibility into conservation planning will represent a significant shift in how many resource managers and donors approach conservation issues. we predict that the current emphasis on the creation of closures, which are expected to build ecological resilience and minimize climate change impacts through increasing grazing capacity and coral recovery trajectories (mumby et al. 2007; worm et al. 2006), will only work socially and ecologically in a limited region where high adaptive capacity and low environmental susceptibility intersect. other areas will need to focus on enhancing adaptive capacity, which will require governments and donors to move beyond common measures to involve stakeholders in protected areas (i.e. consultation, participation, compensation), and may involve large investments in economic alternatives to reef-based livelihoods and programs to build social and physical infrastructure. conservation policies based on integrated analysis of environmental susceptibility and adaptive capacity are more likely to result in actions that enhance the ability of reef ecosystems and local communities who depend on them to cope with both the expected and unexpected impacts of climate change.
What are the reports used for Impact and assessment of climate change ?
impact and adaptation assessments of climate change often require more detailed information than is available from the ukcp09 pdfs described in the uk climate projections science report
What are the requirements for impact assessment models and what are their applications ?
some impact assessments are carried out using models which require time series inputs, as they are simulating processes which are sensitive to the history or sequence of events, rather than simply an aggregated average. examples of such impact models are to be found in numerous applications such as agricultural and ecological studies, or water resource and flood risk assessments
What are the desirable outputs of the study of the models ??
a further desirable property is that they should adequately represent extreme events such as prolonged rainfall, droughts and heatwaves. such high spatial and temporal resolution series are not available from the uk climate projections 
impact and adaptation assessments of climate change often require more detailed information than is available from the ukcp09 pdfs described in the uk climate projections science report: climate change projections (murphy et al. 2009). extra detail may be needed in terms of higher resolution in space and/ or time. for example, projections may be needed at a specific location (a town or small river catchment) rather than an average for a 25 by 25 km grid box, or the intensity of rainfall may be needed on a time scale of an hour or day, rather than the monthly or seasonal value or the long-term average. this type of information may be further analysed in terms of exceedances of thresholds, or accumulations/deficits: these cannot be derived from the ukcp09 probabilistic projections directly. as well as more resolution, some impact assessments are carried out using models which require time series inputs, as they are simulating processes which are sensitive to the history or sequence of events, rather than simply an aggregated average. examples of such impact models are to be found in numerous applications such as agricultural and ecological studies, or water resource and flood risk assessments. to be useful, these generated series must be internally consistent between weather variables (e.g. so that temperatures are usually higher on dry days, compared to wet days in the summer). such data are also needed for both the current climate and a range of possible future periods chosen by the user, so they must also be consistent with a range of observed and projected statistics of the variables (from the ukcp09 probabilistic projections). a further desirable property is that they should adequately represent extreme events such as prolonged rainfall, droughts and heatwaves. such high spatial and temporal resolution series are not available from the uk climate projections (or indeed from any other climate modelling programme), so a complementary approach has been developed in ukcp09 using a weather generator to provide high resolution time series of weather variables at a 5 by 5 km grid square resolution for user-specified future periods.
Direct emissions of indoor air pollution was compared to what, in terms of estimated average personal exposure and intake owning?
we compare stove options in terms of estimated average personal pm2.5 exposure and intake owing only to direct emissions of indoor air pollution
According to the illustration, what happens if the dose-response relationship is log-linear?
as illustrated below, if the dose-response relationship is log-linear, then a unit change in logarithm of intake yields a unit change in disease relative risk
we compare stove options in terms of estimated average personal pm2.5 exposure and intake owing only to direct emissions of indoor air pollution. this approach considers a smaller portion of the emission-exposure-impact chain than is encompassed in the gbd studies, but carries the advantage of allowing straightforward comparison of technology choices. as illustrated below, if the dose-response relationship is log-linear, then a unit change in logarithm of intake yields a unit change in disease relative risk. we employ an intake fraction approach bennett et al., 2002 that links mass emitted and mass inhaled. specifically, the individual intake fraction ifi) quantifies the portion of stove emissions that are inhaled by an household individual, indoors: ifi  1/4  individual intake total emission  1/4  cpersonal  qb ef  afu d 2 th where cpersonal is the annual average attributable exposure concentration for an exposed individual
What temperature and exclusion trends are similar to HADCM3?
the trends in temperature and precipitation for the hadcm3 simulation are similar to echam4
What effect do temperature changes have on rivers, according to the article?
thus, taken alone, the changes in temperature would tend to alter streamflow by steadily reducing snowpack and increasing evapotranspiration
What is the consequence of the exclusion in the flow of rivers being minimal?
the effects of precipitation on streamflow would be minimal with a slight tendency to reduce the severity of dry years
the trends in temperature and precipitation for the hadcm3 simulation are similar to echam4 except for jja precipitation, where the trends for hadcm3 are much less severe than for echam4. similar results are found for ncar-pcm, with comparable changes in temperature and smaller changes in jja precipitation than for echam4. thus, taken alone, the changes in temperature would tend to alter streamflow by steadily reducing snowpack and increasing evapotranspiration. the effects of precipitation on streamflow would be minimal with a slight tendency to reduce the severity of dry years. although simulated jja precipitation decreases dramatically, jja precipitation is so small compared to the annual total that it has little effect on streamflow. water demand, which is not considered here, could be significantly altered. the interaction of the temperature and precipitation effects will only become
Define climate response?
the climate response to dust can occur at different latitudes than the radiative forcing. here we show the difference in surface temperature (radiative) between the case where dust radiative forcing is included in the climate simulation minus the case where there is no radiative forcing, for each climate
Define further study?
our results suggest that further study of the importance of climate feedbacks of desert dust aerosols is warranted, and suggests some patterns that are robust across different climates in our simulations
the climate response to dust can occur at different latitudes than the radiative forcing. here we show the difference in surface temperature (radiative) between the case where dust radiative forcing is included in the climate simulation minus the case where there is no radiative forcing, for each climate. the response of surface temperature to dust radiative forcing tends to be between 0.1 and 2.1  c cooling, and these values are statistically significant across a broad range of latitudes (figure 1d). the strongest cooling occurs in northern midlatitudes (figure 1d), even when the dust optical depth and radiative forcing has a larger magnitude in the tropics (figures 1a, 1b, and 1c). the strongest response in temperature occurs at 40-90  n in the last glacial maximum cases, and is approximately 2  c. it is unclear why the response should be largest at northern midlatitudes, but it could be due to the lower heat capacity of land versus ocean, and the large portion of land at this latitude. the climate response of precipitation to the dust radiative forcing tends to be a shift in the precipitation to the hemisphere with less dust (figure 1e) and a decrease in the globally averaged precipitation (table 1). our results suggest that further study of the importance of climate feedbacks of desert dust aerosols is warranted, and suggests some patterns that are robust across different climates in our simulations.
Why they chose two datasets?
we chose two datasets for analysis because of our familiarity with them and the intuition that
In Which Year Wines and Graham demonstrated in terms of species diversity and their environments?
2005
we chose two datasets for analysis because of our familiarity with them and the intuition that, because of their differences in geographic location, spatial resolution, taxonomic focus, and the evolutionary distinctness of the taxa, they could display distinct tendencies in terms of the degree of niche differentiation among taxa and potential impacts for predicting the effects of climate change. further, the results of previous studies have demonstrated that closely related taxa can show a range of degrees of niche divergence and that this is to be expected given the diversity of species and their ecologies (wiens and graham 2005). for example, niche models of closely related species can show substantial similarity, to such a degree that closely related
How can framing a question result in increased level of responces?
tailoring messages to people's natural promotion and prevention orientations increases the level of response for both groups
In what way should messages be posed to increase acceptance?
explain options in different ways, some with a promotion focus and some with a prevention focus
What do communicators need to remember in order to have a successfully framed message?
they should remember that framing requires the careful selection of words that will resonate with the audience's orientations
research shows that tailoring messages to people's natural promotion and prevention orientations increases the level of response for both groups, regardless of whether their response was positive or negative. these findings support the idea of framing messages from multiple perspectives to accomplish environmental goals. for example, if a local city wants people to increase their recycling, city officials should explain options in different ways, some with a promotion focus and some with a prevention focus. a promotion message would emphasize "going the extra mile" (e.g., going out of one's way to recycle, how recycling benefits the community). a prevention message would encourage "dotting the 'i' and crossing the 't'" (e.g., being careful to recycle, how not recycling hurts the community). when communicators craft their climate change messages, they should remember that framing requires the careful selection of words that will resonate with the audience's orientations. the table to the left lists words that will help communicators frame messages that appeal to those who are promotion focused and/or prevention focused. in order to increase the chances of reaching a greater number of people in the audience, communicators should include both promotionand
What causes breeding?
bird breeding and spring migration phenology have advanced in response to climate change, but the effects differ between sites. here, we examine the geographical variation in layingdate trends in a short-distance migrant
What trend do they model here?
we model the trend in laying date for these 2 species -- between 1980 and 2004 for most of their european breeding areas--by combining geographical variation in mean laying date, the effect of temperature on laying date, and spatial variation in temperature change
What is the consequence of southern population?
as a consequence the southern population may be constrained in adapting to climate change by low temperatures during migration. there is a large contrast in how circumstances during migration and at the breeding grounds have changed: populations that advanced breeding most were subjected to the lowest temperature increases during migration. the temporal and spatial variation in temperature change has important consequences on how migrants adapt to ongoing climate change. key words: laying date * timing * migration * phenotypic plasticity * temperature * ficedula hypoleuca * sturnus vulgaris
bird breeding and spring migration phenology have advanced in response to climate change, but the effects differ between sites. here, we examine the geographical variation in layingdate trends in a short-distance migrant, the european starling sturnus vulgaris and a long-distance migrant, the pied flycatcher ficedula hypoleuca we model the trend in laying date for these 2 species -- between 1980 and 2004 for most of their european breeding areas--by combining geographical variation in mean laying date, the effect of temperature on laying date, and spatial variation in temperature change. starlings are predicted to have advanced breeding over most of their range, with the greatest advance in north-eastern europe. in contrast, pied flycatchers have delayed their laying in northern europe, but have advanced their laying in western and central europe. the species differ because pied flycatchers lay their eggs 25 d later at each site than starlings, and temperatures during these 2 periods show different trends. temperatures during migration have also changed differently for populations heading to different breeding areas. this was most pronounced for pied flycatchers; northern populations experience an increase in temperatures during migration, while more southern populations presently still migrate at temperatures similar to those experienced 25 yr ago. as a consequence the southern population may be constrained in adapting to climate change by low temperatures during migration. there is a large contrast in how circumstances during migration and at the breeding grounds have changed: populations that advanced breeding most were subjected to the lowest temperature increases during migration. the temporal and spatial variation in temperature change has important consequences on how migrants adapt to ongoing climate change. key words: laying date * timing * migration * phenotypic plasticity * temperature * ficedula hypoleuca * sturnus vulgaris
ow many patients with what symptoms were tested?
tests (spt) were performed on a total of 676 patients showing symptoms of airborne allergen sensitivity
What was tested in the serum?
measurement of artemisia species speci fi c ige antibodies
clinical studies were performed at the allergic diseases diagnostic center of the university of medical sciences in poznan during 2002, 2003, and 2004. the allergy diagnostic procedures consisted of 2 different analyses. firstly, skin prick tests (spt) were performed on a total of 676 patients showing symptoms of airborne allergen sensitivity. patients were residents in the city of poznan and the surrounding area. a vulgaris allergen extract (nexter allergopharma, berlin, germany) was used for the spts. secondly, serum for the measurement of artemisia species speci fi c ige antibodies were collected from 524 patients. speci fi c ige level was measured using 2 methods: fl uorescent enzyme immunoassay (feia) (cap system feia pharmacia, uppsala, sweden) and enzymelinked immunoassay (elisa) (nexter allergopharma).
What does regeneration of nitrogen through excretion by zooplankton help support?
regeneration of nitrogen through excretion by zooplankton helps support bacterial and phytoplankton production
What are three examples of critical ecosystem services that contribute to the economic value of the oceans?
in fact, much of the economic value of the oceans, estimated at us$21 trillion per annum and similar to the global gross national product (costanza et al ., 1997), stems from critical ecosystem services, such as fishery production, nutrient cycling, and climate regulation provided by zooplankton
What role do zooplankton play in the biological pump process?
zooplankton play a role in the biological pump because much of the co2 that is fixed by phytoplankton, then eaten by zooplankton, eventually sinks to the seabed. much of this carbon can be locked up in sediments and removed from the carbon cycle. zooplankton also facilitate this process by moving large quantities of carbon from the ocean's surface to deeper layers when they dive each day into the ocean depths to avoid near-surface predatory fish
zooplankton not only support the large, highly visible, and charismatic components of the ocean foodweb, but also the microbial community. regeneration of nitrogen through excretion by zooplankton helps support bacterial and phytoplankton production. microbes colonize zooplankton faecal pellets and carcasses, making them rich sources of organic carbon for detrital feeders. these zooplankton products slowly yet consistently rain down on the dark seabed, sustaining diverse benthic communities of sponges, echinoderms, anemones, crabs, and fish (ruhl and smith, 2004). zooplankton also play an important role in shaping the extent and pace of climate change. the ocean's ability to act as a sink for co2 relies partially on the biological pump. zooplankton play a role in the biological pump because much of the co2 that is fixed by phytoplankton, then eaten by zooplankton, eventually sinks to the seabed. much of this carbon can be locked up in sediments and removed from the carbon cycle. zooplankton also facilitate this process by moving large quantities of carbon from the ocean's surface to deeper layers when they dive each day into the ocean depths to avoid near-surface predatory fish. without the diverse roles performed by zooplankton, our oceans would be devoid of the large fish, mammals, and turtles that are of such immense aesthetic, social, and financial value to society. in fact, much of the economic value of the oceans, estimated at us$21 trillion per annum and similar to the global gross national product (costanza et al ., 1997), stems from critical ecosystem services, such as fishery production, nutrient cycling, and climate regulation provided by zooplankton.
what did the Canadian IPY programme and the U.S. National Science foundation fund?
synthesis effort
we thank the canadian ipy programme and the u.s. national science foundation for funding this synthesis effort. additional financial support for individual experiments was also provided by the australian research council, department of sustainability and environment, parks victoria, arcticnet, environment canada, natural sciences and engineering research council of canada, northern scientific training program of aboriginal affairs and northern development canada, polar continental shelf program of natural resources canada, yukon territorial government, natural sciences division of the danish council for independent research, the danish environmental protection agency, academy of finland, icelandic research fund, ministry of environment of japan  s global environmental research fund, darwin centre for biogeosciences, dutch polar program, netherlands organization for scientific research, eu-atans, norwegian research council, norwegian svalbard society; norwegian polar institute, european commission (framework 5), swedish research council for environment, agricultural sciences and spatial planning, uk natural environment research council, national geographic society, and the u.s. forest service. we gratefully acknowledge the data-collection efforts of hundreds of field assistants and graduate students, as well as many others for helpful conversations about analysis and interpretation.
What do the processes described directly address?
such processes directly address the irrational discounting of super wicked problems by political systems and policy processes wherein previous commitments for change are often annulled as we near their required impacts
What does the third question directly address?
the third question directly addresses how the challenge of no central authority might be overcome through progressive incremental forces
What is the point in asking such questions?
while it does not follow that answering these questions will always result in the amelioration of super wicked problems, our point is that asking them may uncover innovative solutions worthy of consideration
the first two questions direct policy makers to trigger processes that create benefits for groups who change their behavior as a result of the policy and hence offset status quo bias. such processes directly address the irrational discounting of super wicked problems by political systems and policy processes wherein previous commitments for change are often annulled as we near their required impacts. the third question directly addresses how the challenge of no central authority might be overcome through progressive incremental forces. while it does not follow that answering these questions will always result in the amelioration of super wicked problems, our point is that asking them may uncover innovative solutions worthy of consideration. applied forward reasoning: an alternative epistemology conventional policy analysis tools are poorly situated to help find policies to bind ''our future collective selves.'' these approaches tend to compare policy instruments against a single goal, such as efficiency, and apply some variation of cost-benefit policy analysis (arrow et al. 1996 or multi-goal analysis in which impacts are compared through a type of weighting process (weimer and vining 2004 ). in an effort to provide clarity, these approaches assume a relatively linear and predictable world in which decisions about whether non-efficiency goals are attainable result from, rather than precede, the comparative exercises (tribe 1972 kysar 2010 ). for super wicked problems, however, the well-known difficulties of probabilistic prediction in the social sciences are magnified (bernstein et al. 2000 ). like many other policy challenges, super wicked problems occur in open, non-linear systems, where human beings may also interact in reflective and unpredictable ways to change their environment. in addition, the nature of these problems makes the utility of the usual backward looking method of prediction--really post-diction--typical of deductivenomothetic theory problematic. a research strategy with the aim of finding general explanations is simply ill-advised for problems with super wicked characteristics. a more appropriate research goal is to identify possible policy interventions and reason forward to how the problem and interventions might unfold over time. as patoma"ki explains, forward looking policy analysis ought to be '' ... interested in other possible and likely futures, and in determining the ways in which our actions and the actions of others contribute--sometimes via unintended effects and consequences--to making some of them real'' (patoma"ki 2006 12). developing such an approach poses a serious dilemma for social science theory in two respects. first, mainstream social science has been built on examining the past and
What small-scale climate features are not represented?
small-scale climate features such as frost pockets or local slope and aspect effects are not represented
What are the databases best suited to analyze?
the databases are best suited to analyze biological response to inter-annual variability where the climate variables of interest cover several months
What are the climactic features modeled suitable for?
regarding spatial accuracy, climatic features such as rain shadows, temperature inversions, slope and aspect effects are modeled at a scale of several kilometers, suitable to represent mountain ranges
the climatebc and climatepp software packages provide easy access to historical and future climate data at any resolution. it should be kept in mind, however, that there are important limitations that we want to recap at the end of this paper. as previously discussed, the shorter the historical time interval of interest, the less reliable the climate surfaces are due to the inability to represent unique local weather patterns over short time intervals. the databases are best suited to analyze biological response to inter-annual variability where the climate variables of interest cover several months (e.g. growing season length, mean annual precipitation, spring temperature). regarding spatial accuracy, climatic features such as rain shadows, temperature inversions, slope and aspect effects are modeled at a scale of several kilometers, suitable to represent mountain ranges. lapse-rate driven temperature differences as a function of elevation are accurately represented at a much finer scale, informative at a resolution of hundreds of meters. small-scale climate features such as frost pockets or local slope and aspect effects are not represented.
What played a cornerstone role?
development finance institutions68played a cornerstone role, raising and channeling about one third, or usd 121 billion of global climate finance
What emergence will help grow climate funds?
while climate funds are not currently a major player, their importance is likely to grow given the emergence of the green climate fund
How much funding was gathered from public resources?
based on the data captured in landscape 2013 public resources also played fundamental roles in financing adaptation (usd 20-24 billion
development finance institutions68played a cornerstone role, raising and channeling about one third, or usd 121 billion of global climate finance. dfis delivered a varied toolbox of financial instruments for national and international investments. along with government, they provided grants and low-cost debt to create capacity and reduce investment costs, and equity to promote the diffusion of early stage technology. dfis also played an important role in addressing risk gaps in developed and developing countries, stepping in where private insurance companies and investors were not yet able to cover risks. landscape 2013 also captured government budgets' contribution of usd 9-16 billion (usd 12 billion on average) through government bodies, to support low-carbon and climate-resilient development. this figure includes usd 4-11 billion (usd 8 billion on average) of climate-marked government flows from developed to developing countries in 2011 (excluding dfi contributions). dedicated national and multilateral climate funds contributed a further usd 1.6 billion to developing countries, mostly funded through developed country contributions. while climate funds are not currently a major player, their importance is likely to grow given the emergence of the green climate fund. based on the data captured in landscape 2013 public resources also played fundamental roles in financing adaptation (usd 20-24 billion). the majority of this flow was international finance invested in developing countries. the predominance of the public sector in delivering adaptation finance stems from long standing expertise in providing development assistance, which has strong overlaps with climate resilience. that said, we acknowledge that there are serious information gaps about the role of the private sector in financing adaptation. this is due to deficiencies in tracking, but also due to deeper systemic problems around defining what qualifies as adaptation finance. landscape 2013 data indicates public actors also dominated energy efficiency investments (usd 32 billion), though we note that data for private investments in energy efficiency activities is not readily available.
Which studies have documented the marginalization of single women?
adams, 1976; bickerton, 1983; chandler, 1991; chasteen, 1994; holden, 1996; jeffreys, 1985
What Jeffreys studies has to offer?
jeffreys, for example, in her historical research on lesbian women records the attacks on single women in the early part of the twentieth century
What Chasteen and Adams studies have to offer?
chasteen describes how sexism is built into the single woman's everyday environment, while adams has noted that conventional psychological theories often equate wellbeing with marriage
a number of studies have documented the marginalization of single women (adams, 1976; bickerton, 1983; chandler, 1991; chasteen, 1994; holden, 1996; jeffreys, 1985). jeffreys, for example, in her historical research on lesbian women records the attacks on single women in the early part of the twentieth century. chasteen describes how sexism is built into the single woman's everyday environment, while adams has noted that conventional psychological theories often equate wellbeing with marriage. there has been little investigation, however, of the ways in which women defined as single respond to and work with the typical constructions of their identity available in the public arena. we will argue that singleness is best viewed as a discursively constructed social category. the discursive field organising 'singleness' marks the identity of single women through the subject positions (davies and harre, 1990) and interpretative repertoires (potter and wetherell, 1987) it offers for making sense of life patterns. in line with the general marginalization of single women, academic research on singleness has largely assumed, if not quite pathology, at least that the psychology of the single woman will be shaped by 'difference' and, possibly, personal 'dysfunction'. the field as a whole is surprisingly sparse and under-developed with few sustained empirical investigations. one strand of research has applied models of the life course or life stages to understand the situation of singleness. allen (1989) and lewis and moon (1997) have attempted to revise life course models (typically based around the stages of marriage and child rearing) for single people. lewis and moon, for example, offer a list of nonsequential developmental tasks that adult singles need to address. thus the successful single woman will have prepared herself financially and emotionally for old age even though she may hope never to be old and single (p.130). schwartzberg et al (1995) have used life stages as a therapeutic tool that might help the single person understand and value their own life course. such alternative routes through the life course nonetheless involve acknowledgement of the non-normative nature of the single track, and emphasize ways of coming to terms with the loss of the usual life trajectory. similarly, writing from a psychoanalytic perspective often traces any current difficulties experienced by a woman in finding a partner back to defences formed earlier, perhaps in early childhood (see for instance, bickerton, 1983). psychoanalysts taking an explicit feminist perspective (e.g. eichenbaum and orbach, 1987) have been critical of the patriarchal context in which women negotiate relationships. eichenbaum and orbach argue that normative assumptions about femininity necessarily require connection with a man. such assumptions explain why women are propelled into relationships, rather than celebrating an identity as a separate, free standing and autonomous person. they remark that women often talk in therapy of how they stay on in unsatisfactory relationships for fear of a loss of self. eichenbaum and orbach suggest that women think of their identity
What are the effects of Heavy storm ?
heavy storms could increase shore and bank erosion
What are the effects of higher summer temperature ?
higher summer temperatures increase evaporation, making drought conditions more frequent and likely more severe
What are the effects of Flooding and shoreline erosion ?
flooding and shoreline erosion damage private property and public infrastructure, affecting the construction, real estate, and insurance industries
more run-off in winter and spring from rainon-snow events and in summer from intense downpours causes more flooding and erosion. extreme run-off could increase heavy metal pollution, sedimentation, high nutrient levels, and toxic organisms. heavy storms could increase shore and bank erosion; lower lake levels and less ice cover could decrease bluff failures and ice damage. increased spring flooding delays planting; intense summer downpours and more run-off leads to soil erosion and fertility losses. decreased summer stream flow and warmer stream and lake waters affect fish and other aquatic organisms. higher summer temperatures increase evaporation, making drought conditions more frequent and likely more severe. lake levels likely to drop as evaporation increases and ice cover shortens. less rain infiltration, decreased summer stream flow, and lower lake levels reduce groundwater recharge. threat of wildfires may increase and forest composition may change, affecting bird and animal species, recreation, and the timber industry. crops currently not irrigated may need it; those already irrigated may need more. long-lived perennials such as fruit trees are especially vulnerable to greater variability in moisture and temperature. lower lake levels would affect recreational boating, hydropower generation, and shipping; require more dredging; and force changes to shore facilities and water infrastructure. greater demand for water and summer shortages increase water extraction, lower the water table, and drive up costs; more conflicts over water allocation likely. flooding and shoreline erosion damage private property and public infrastructure, affecting the construction, real estate, and insurance industries. beach closures due to public health hazards from toxic algal blooms and other organisms would affect the important recreation and tourism industries. soil fertility losses, combined with an increase in pests, create higher costs and losses for the agriculture and forestry industries. additional resources would be required to maintain, repair, and upgrade flood response infrastructure, manage run-off, and recover from flood damages. increased risk of vector-borne (e.g., ticks, mosquitoes) and water-borne (e.g., cryptosporidium diseases would require greater education, surveillance, prevention, and response from the public health system.
What is Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity?
equilibrium climate sensitivity refers to the ultimate change in global mean temperature in response to a change in external forcing
What is the concentration of carbon dioxide?
despite decades of research attempting to narrow uncertainties, equilibrium climate sensitivity estimates from climate models still span roughly 1.5 to 5 degrees celsius for a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, precluding accurate projections of future climate
Describe climate sensitivity?
the apparent mechanism is that such mixing dehydrates the low-cloud layer at a rate that increases as the climate warms, and this rate of increase depends on the initial mixing strength, linking the mixing to cloud feedback. the mixing inferred from observations appears to be sufficiently strong to imply a climate sensitivity of more than 3 degrees for a doubling of carbon dioxide. this is significantly higher than the currently accepted lower bound of 1.5 degrees, thereby constraining model projections towards relatively severe future warming. eversincenumericalglobalclimatemodels(gcms)werefirstdeveloped in the early 1970s, they have exhibited a wide range of equilibrium climate sensitivities (roughly 1.5-4.5 u c warming per equivalent doubling of co2 concentration)1and consequently a broad range of future warming projections, with the uncertainty due mostly to the range of simulatednetcloudfeedback2,3.thisfeedbackstrengthvariesfromroughly zero in the lowest-sensitivity models to about 1.2-1.4 w m2 2k2 1
equilibrium climate sensitivity refers to the ultimate change in global mean temperature in response to a change in external forcing. despite decades of research attempting to narrow uncertainties, equilibrium climate sensitivity estimates from climate models still span roughly 1.5 to 5 degrees celsius for a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, precluding accurate projections of future climate. the spread arises largely from differences in the feedback from low clouds, for reasons not yet understood. here we show that differences in the simulated strength of convective mixing between the lower and middle tropical troposphere explain about half of the variance in climate sensitivity estimated by 43 climate models. the apparent mechanism is that such mixing dehydrates the low-cloud layer at a rate that increases as the climate warms, and this rate of increase depends on the initial mixing strength, linking the mixing to cloud feedback. the mixing inferred from observations appears to be sufficiently strong to imply a climate sensitivity of more than 3 degrees for a doubling of carbon dioxide. this is significantly higher than the currently accepted lower bound of 1.5 degrees, thereby constraining model projections towards relatively severe future warming. eversincenumericalglobalclimatemodels(gcms)werefirstdeveloped in the early 1970s, they have exhibited a wide range of equilibrium climate sensitivities (roughly 1.5-4.5 u c warming per equivalent doubling of co2 concentration)1and consequently a broad range of future warming projections, with the uncertainty due mostly to the range of simulatednetcloudfeedback2,3.thisfeedbackstrengthvariesfromroughly zero in the lowest-sensitivity models to about 1.2-1.4 w m2 2k2 1
What does the impact metric measure?
the impact metric considered in the previous section measures, at the grid-cell level, signi fi cant departures from present levels of resource availability, irrespective of what those levels are
How can water scarcity more appropriately be assessed?
moreover, because most water is used for irrigated agriculture, which does not necessarily take place in the same location where people live, water scarcity can be assessed more appropriately on a larger spatial scale than on the grid-cell level
What is a widely used indicator of water scarcity?
a widely used, simple indicator of water scarcity, the water crowding index (28, 29), relates water resources to population at the country scale
the impact metric considered in the previous section measures, at the grid-cell level, signi fi cant departures from present levels of resource availability, irrespective of what those levels are. it is thus an indicator of adaptation challenges that may arise, but not necessarily of resource scarcity in an absolute sense. moreover, because most water is used for irrigated agriculture, which does not necessarily take place in the same location where people live, water scarcity can be assessed more appropriately on a larger spatial scale than on the grid-cell level. a widely used, simple indicator of water scarcity, the water crowding index (28, 29), relates water resources to population at the country scale. de fi ned originally as the number of people depending on a given resource unit, we use the inverse (i.e., annual mean water resources per capita). considering only supply-side changes, this indicator is suitable for assessing the impact of climate change on physical water scarcity, whereas the actual water stress experienced by people will also depend on changes in per-capita water requirements and uses (30). we base our water scarcity assessment on the " blue " water (bw) resource (31), de fi ned here as runoff redistributed across the river basin according to the distribution of discharge materials and methods ). compared with using discharge itself, this avoids counting a given water unit more than once, while retaining the spatial distribution of discharge across the basin. the latter is important, for example, in countries like egypt, where most of the available water resource is generated by runoff outside the country (in this case, in the nile river headwaters). we consider the percentage of global population in either of two water scarcity classes: annual bw availability below 500 m3
what is the part of integrated risk management?
in the light of the suggestion to regard adaptation as part of integrated risk management, and for shared-cost funding, the question remains to what extent the costs of adaptation should be covered by grants from the funds administered by gef and other granting programmes, and how much should be in regular development loans or public expenditure in the countries themselves. in some instances, there is a case to be made for something close to full cost funding
what are the reason of low income developing countries?
such cases are likely to be found in low income developing countries where there is an obviously urgent situation and where the total project size is relatively low. agreed full cost funding also applies now in the case of capacity building measures and analysis under convention (gef) trust funds. more generally, a better case for adaptation funding can be made on a shared cost basis. many useful adaptation measures might entail little more than a small "add-on" to existing activities
what are the reason of more developed countries?
in such cases, and particularly in more developed countries, adaptation funds would only cover a small part of the total project cost. it is widely acknowledged that the scientific basis is lacking for the confident estimation of incremental climate change costs and benefits associated with adaptation projects (or project components). scenario-based estimates of the frequency, magnitude and distribution of climate
in the light of the suggestion to regard adaptation as part of integrated risk management, and for shared-cost funding, the question remains to what extent the costs of adaptation should be covered by grants from the funds administered by gef and other granting programmes, and how much should be in regular development loans or public expenditure in the countries themselves. in some instances, there is a case to be made for something close to full cost funding. such cases are likely to be found in low income developing countries where there is an obviously urgent situation and where the total project size is relatively low. agreed full cost funding also applies now in the case of capacity building measures and analysis under convention (gef) trust funds. more generally, a better case for adaptation funding can be made on a shared cost basis. many useful adaptation measures might entail little more than a small "add-on" to existing activities. moreover, even projects aimed entirely at climate risk management also address current climate risks, and thus generate immediate benefits irrespective of climate change. in such cases, and particularly in more developed countries, adaptation funds would only cover a small part of the total project cost. it is widely acknowledged that the scientific basis is lacking for the confident estimation of incremental climate change costs and benefits associated with adaptation projects (or project components). scenario-based estimates of the frequency, magnitude and distribution of climate
What is the probability multidecadal megadrought?
the probability of multidecadal megadrought is also high: the likelihood of a 35-yr event is between 10% and 50% depending on how much climate change is realized during the coming century
What do the risk levels correspond to?
risk levels correspond to the intensity of forcing and the underlying distribution of hydroclimatic variance across the frequency continuum
Which is the limitation of this study?
an obvious limitation of our work is that it is ''blind'' to certain aspects of dynamically driven changes in prolonged drought risk
in the current generation of global climate models, the risk of a decade-scale drought occurring this century is at least 50% for most of the greater southwestern united states and may indeed be closer to 80% figs. 9 and 10 ). the probability of multidecadal megadrought is also high: the likelihood of a 35-yr event is between 10% and 50% depending on how much climate change is realized during the coming century. the probability of even longer events 50-yr, or ''permanent,'' megadrought) is nonnegligible (5%-10%) for the most intense warming scenario fig. 14 ). risk levels correspond to the intensity of forcing and the underlying distribution of hydroclimatic variance across the frequency continuum. the rcp8.5 scenario, for instance, depicts the highest levels of risk regardless of the underlying noise type. likewise, the power-law noises produce higher megadrought likelihoods for each rcp than the other noises. an obvious limitation of our work is that it is ''blind'' to certain aspects of dynamically driven changes in prolonged drought risk. for instance, changes in the magnitude, frequency, or teleconnection patterns of el ni no and la nina (e.g., coats et al. 2013a may alter the statistics of interannual variability in ways that are not captured by our simple models. further, megadrought statistics over the last millennium may be forcing dependent, as suggested by cook et al. (2004) for instance, which shows that megadroughts were more common during the medieval climate era of 850-1200 ce. another very serious limitation is imposed by the reliability of the models themselves to make realistic predictions of changes in climatological precipitation for the end of the twenty-first century.
Do experts have the same cognitive biases as laymen?
research by tversky and kahnemann (1974) has shown that experts use the same heuristics and have the same cognitive biases as laymen
What warning does The Guidance Notes for Lead Authors of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report on Addressing Uncertainties give?
against the tendency of a group to converge to an expressed value and to become overconfident
What do Tebaldi and Knuuti (2007) have to say about the difficulties with approaches attempting to derive future climate probability distributions from climate projection information?
tebaldi and knuuti (2007) point out that climate models are not independent, since models have similar resolution and must parameterize the same processes
various methods are available to elicit probability distributions from experts (morgan and henrion, 1992). research by tversky and kahnemann (1974) has shown that experts use the same heuristics and have the same cognitive biases as laymen. experts, like others, tend to be overconfident in their predictions and their ability to assess the likelihood of events. the guidance notes for lead authors of the ipcc fourth assessment report on addressing uncertainties (intergovernmental panel on climate change, 200\\x04) warns against the tendency of a group to converge to an expressed value and to become overconfident. the p&g allows the use of subjective probability distributions to characterize uncertainty in the absence of empirical data that can be used to represent future random events. however, when subjective probabilities are used, the p&g recommends that the study report should state clearly that the numerical estimates are subjective and there should be a description of the impact of other subjective distributions on design (u.s. water resources council, 1983). several studies have recently attempted to derive future climate probability distributions from climate projection information (murphy and others, 2004; tebaldi and others, 2004; dettinger, 200\\x04b), sometimes involving the preconditioning or weighting of climate projection information based on the relative skill among the climate models used to generate projections (tebaldi and others, 200\\x04; brekke and others, 2008). however, there are several difficulties with these approaches. tebaldi and knuuti (2007) point out that climate models are not independent, since models have similar resolution and must parameterize the same processes. stainforth and others (2007) state that the effort to weight models is futile: "relative to the real world, all models have effectively zero weight." they argue "there is no reason to expect these distributions to relate to the probability of real-world behavior" (stainforth and others, 2007).
What is, or should be the goal?
because the goal is (or should be) to produce climate maps that best represent the state of human knowledge, the most useful source of verification is probably that of experts who can integrate information from disparate sources to give definite, justifiable feedback on how well the model results reproduce their best knowledge, from a variety of perspectives
What may be the best overall way to assess error?
perhaps the best overall way to assess error is to use a combination of approaches, involve data that are as independent from those used in the analysis as possible, and use common sense in the interpretation of results
What regions are difficult to map succesfully?
regions having significant terrain features, and also significant coastal effects, rain shadows, or cold air drainage and inversions are difficult to map accurately
because the goal is (or should be) to produce climate maps that best represent the state of human knowledge, the most useful source of verification is probably that of experts who can integrate information from disparate sources to give definite, justifiable feedback on how well the model results reproduce their best knowledge, from a variety of perspectives. this feedback can be in the form of evaluation of the spatial patterns and magnitudes of the mapped climate values, as well as insight into station data quality issues (daly and johnson, 1999). if the intent of the developer is to invite wide usage of their data set, conducting an expert review should be an integral part of the development process. unfortunately, this is rarely done. reasons range from the need to minimize costs and increase expediency, to a failure to recognize the importance of the process. expert review is a nontrivial exercise, involving significant time and resources, and contact with reviewers working in diverse disciplines. depending on the geographic extent of the data set and other considerations, the number of reviewers will often be many times greater than the number of referees for a submitted journal manuscript. the results of such reviews may require the developers to make significant changes in their methodology, repeat the development process, and possibly repeat the review process, if necessary. 5. conclusions and user guidelines on the basis of the above information, some general conclusions and guidelines for the user of spatial climate data sets are summarized below. terrain and water bodies, where they occur, often have major effects on spatial climate patterns. the importance of terrain and coastal effects is lowest at scales of 100 km and greater, and become greatest at less than 10 km. except in densely populated regions of developed countries, the typical station spacing of more than 100 km is likely to be insufficient to directly represent climate patterns caused by the major climate forcing factors. interpolation techniques that develop relationships between existing station data and explanatory physiographic variables such as elevation, coastal proximity, etc. for which much higher-density information is available, have the potential to better represent the actual climate patterns. regions without major terrain features and are at least 100 km from climatically important coastlines usually have the simplest spatial climate patterns. as such, they can probably be handled by all the methods discussed, including idw and ordinary kriging, if sufficient station data exist to represent the major circulation patterns. situations characterized by significant terrain features, but with no climatically important coastlines or rain shadows, and a well-mixed atmosphere (little cold air drainage) can be reasonably handled by methods that explicitly account for elevation effects; these include anusplin, daymet, prism, and regional regression models. examples of these conditions are precipitation and summer daily maximum temperature in an inland region. regions having significant terrain features, and also significant coastal effects, rain shadows, or cold air drainage and inversions are difficult to map accurately. they are best handled by a system such as prism, configured and evaluated by experienced climatologists. examples include minimum temperature in complex terrain, and maximum temperature and precipitation in mountainous and/or maritime-influenced areas. several additional spatial climate-forcing factors are most important at scales of less than 1 km, but may also have effects at larger scales. these factors, which include small-scale slope and aspect, riparian zones, and land use/landcover, are typically not accounted for in spatial climate interpolation. further improvements in spatial climate interpolation should involve accounting for these factors. however, this will require not only basic, quantitative knowledge of the effects of these factors on climate, but high-quality, fine-grid data sets describing these factors that can be used as input. spatial climate data sets represent a significant source of error in any analysis that uses them as input. there is no one satisfactory method for quantitatively estimating error in spatial climate data sets, because the field that is being estimated is unknown between data points. error estimates based on model assumptions are useful in a relative sense only, and cannot be compared to those of other models. cross-validation errors are limited to locations for which stations exist. they can be compared among models, but only when all of the parameters of the interpolation are identical. perhaps the best overall way to assess error is to use a combination of approaches, involve data that are as independent from those used in the analysis as possible, and use common sense in the interpretation of results.
What is Vulnerability Assessment Part II?
climate change and the great barrier reef: a vulnerability assessment part ii: species and species groups (eg fishers) and indirectly (eg water quality) from wetland ecosystem services. currently no single regulatory body has a mandate to manage the terrestrial-marine interface or the issues arising from the competing interests of different interest groups
Explain about expected sea level rise in the next century?
given the magnitude of the expected sea level rise in the next century (lough chapter 2), changes in the landward extent of the intertidal, the high value of the ecosystem services wetlands provide and the high value of coastal property to a range of stakeholders, the development of an organisation that can oversee management of current and future intertidal regions may be practical and desirable
climate change and the great barrier reef: a vulnerability assessment part ii: species and species groups (eg fishers) and indirectly (eg water quality) from wetland ecosystem services. currently no single regulatory body has a mandate to manage the terrestrial-marine interface or the issues arising from the competing interests of different interest groups. given the magnitude of the expected sea level rise in the next century (lough chapter 2), changes in the landward extent of the intertidal, the high value of the ecosystem services wetlands provide and the high value of coastal property to a range of stakeholders, the development of an organisation that can oversee management of current and future intertidal regions may be practical and desirable. management responses should also include: 1. quantitative assessment of lands that will become intertidal by 2080. digital elevation models of estuaries are needed to augment and improve the ozestuaries database. 2. development of management processes that would a) create buffers around wetlands to increase resilience, and b) assist in relinquishing lands to accommodate landward migration of intertidal habitats. 3. improving the knowledge of how wetlands are changing with rising sea level and with other environmental changes. this could be achieved through historical assessments (eg duke et al.75) and by measuring current rates of surface elevation change relative to sea level rise in different wetland settings and under a range of environmental conditions. 4. development of a management framework to aid decisions on whether and which wetlands should be conserved or restored in anticipation of rising sea level. decision tools should incorporate valuation of diversity and ecosystem function and knowledge of the effects of extreme events (eg storms, pollution) on wetlands. the management framework could include consideration of the costs of restoration or defence against tidal incursions versus gains from sustaining current use and potential gains (eg fisheries habitat and carbon credits) from allowing mangrove and salt marsh landward migration.
what are the 3 zones that contribute to the purification of the wastewater?
anaerobic zone, aerobic zone and facultative zone
what happens with the sludge in the anaerobic zone?
this sludge undergoes a decomposition process by anaerobic microorganisms, being slowly converted into carbon dioxide, methane and others
what occurs in the upper layer denominated aerobic zone?
in this zone, the organic matter is oxidised by aerobic respiration. oxygen is required, which is supplied to the medium by the photosynthesis undertaken by algae, and there is a balance between the consumption and production of oxygen and carbon dioxide
the influent wastewater enters at one end of the pond and leaves at the opposite end. during this time, which takes several days, a series of mechanisms contribute to the purification of the wastewater. these mechanisms occur in three zones of the ponds, denominated: anaerobic zone, aerobic zone and facultative zone the suspended organic matter particulate bod tends to settle, constituting the bottom sludge anaerobic zone ). this sludge undergoes a decomposition process by anaerobic microorganisms, being slowly converted into carbon dioxide, methane and others. after a certain period, practically only the inert fraction (nonbiodegradable) remains in the bottom layer. the hydrogen sulphide generated does not cause malodour problems, since it is oxidised by chemical and biochemical processes in the upper aerobic layer. the dissolved organic matter soluble bod ), together with the small suspended organic matter finely particulate bod does not settle and remains dispersed in the liquid mass. in the upper layer, an aerobic zone is present. in this zone, the organic matter is oxidised by aerobic respiration. oxygen is required, which is supplied to the medium by the photosynthesis undertaken by algae, and there is a balance between the consumption and production of oxygen and carbon dioxide (see figure 13.2): bacteria - respiration
With climate change what may be greater even if the probability of high grading remains unchanged?
high grading
What may not be even be planned for because the likelihood of the event is too small?
a recruitment failure due to higher ocean temperatures
Who may wish to establish additional management measures in response to a higher probability of recruitment failure?
fisheries regulators
a high probability event, but with a low consequence (ph, cl) under current management, such as 'high grading' of fish at sea, may be effectively managed in a no climate change state of the world (r1) by incorporating the estimated this extra mortality in stock assessment models. however, with climate change the risk of high grading may be greater (r2) even if the probability of high grading remains unchanged, as represented by (ph, cm), because of greater uncertainty in terms of the stock size. in this more risky state of the world with climate change additional management measures, such as improved monitoring at sea, may be required. similarly, in the r1 state of the world a low probability event with a high consequence (pl, ch), such as a recruitment failure due to higher ocean temperatures, may not be even be planned for because the likelihood of the event is too small. however, with climate change and an increase in the probability of the event, the risk becomes (pm, ch) with existing management measures. as a result, fisheries regulators may wish to establish additional management measures in response to a higher probability of recruitment failure.
What is the main driver for this growth?
the massive budgetary crisis in berlin and the outstanding costs of the energy supply of public buildings
Who delegated the energy management of public buildings to private companies?
the senate delegated the energy management of public buildings to private companies
What has challenged traditional forms of governance in Berlin?
the growing economic and ecological importance of ecopreneurs
the main driver for this growth has been the massive budgetary crisis in berlin and the outstanding costs of the energy supply of public buildings. in order to guarantee investments in energy savings the senate delegated the energy management of public buildings to private companies. the senate, together with leading energy service companies, developed practical guidelines, specimen contracts and quality standards for the outsourcing of energy services. this standardization made it easier to attract other customer groups in berlin, e.g. industrial enterprises, housing associations etc. additionally, the senate delegated marketing and informational services to private service companies, which organize regional business dialogues, energy newsletters etc. on its behalf. in sum, the energy services market has developed progressively during the last decade and is characterized by the competition of matured companies, a considerable functional differentiation, an increasing standardization of services and a growing market transparency for customers. especially in the field of energy services for public buildings, berlin has become a market leader in a national and european context. the growing economic and ecological importance of ecopreneurs has challenged traditional forms of governance in berlin. the rise of the ecopreneurs indicates a step towards private self-regulation in climate protection and technological innovation. the
Which American state is cited in the text?
alaska
Which chemical element was analyzed in the text?
oxygen isotopes
Why were the lakes chosen for the extraction of this element?
these lake basins have strong contrasts in hydrology and sedimentology
geomorphological evidence of late holocene glacial advances in the central brooks range of northern alaska suggests that theregionhasbeensensitivetochangesintemperatureandeffective moisture balance (ellis and calkin, 1979, 1984; hamilton, 1986; calkin, 1988). however, the lichenometry-based chronology of these events only provides an approximate minimum age for glacial retreat. furthermore, the study sites, being limited to high mountain environments, do not closely define the spatial extent and magnitude of the climatic shifts. holocene climatic changes at millennial time scales have been inferred from pollen records in northern alaska (eisner and colinvaux, 1992; anderson and brubaker, 1993, 1994; edwards and barker, 1994), ostracode trace-element geochemistry (hu et al. 1998) in southwestern alaska, and lake-level reconstructions in interior alaska (abbott et al. 2000; figs. 1 and 6). we analyzed oxygen isotopes in multiple sediment cores from meli, and tangled up lakes (fig. 1), located on opposite sides of the brooks range, to improve the detail and resolution of the current climatic history. these lake basins have strong contrasts in hydrology and sedimentology, thereby allowing us to take advantage of the multi-proxy nature of the oxygen isotope data to produce a unique climatic history that includes both effective moisture balance and temperature. the analytical precision of the geochemical data and the chronology are of sufficient quality in these new sites to document holocene climatic variability at millennial-to-centennial time scales.
The fact that the curves in Fig. 1 have different offsets is considered to be what?
the fact that the curves in fig. 1 have different offsets is considered to be of less importance
While the large-scale pressure field of the latter is constrained by the former, the wind speeds are what?
while the large-scale pressure field of the latter is constrained by the former, the wind speeds are different
The second piece of evidence comes from Fig. 2. Figure 2a is a Gumbel plot of annual-minimum sea level pressure as observed in where?
the second piece of evidence comes from fig. 2. figure 2a is a gumbel plot of annual-minimum sea level pressure as observed in nordby, denmark
the fact that the curves in fig. 1 have different offsets is considered to be of less importance. 10 m winds depend on surface roughness. as different models employ different parameterizations of surface roughness, they can, under otherwise identical circumstances, come up with different wind speeds. this is particularly evident for the era-40 and the racmo results. while the large-scale pressure field of the latter is constrained by the former, the wind speeds are different. this is mainly due to a lower surface roughness in the high wind speed regime in racmo as compared to era-40. the second piece of evidence comes from fig. 2. figure 2a is a gumbel plot of annual-minimum sea level pressure as observed in nordby, denmark (8 2*e, 55 3*n), together with the simulated values at the nearest grid point of the
where do Reciprocity results were generated from?
direction of reciprocity for each location. note: reciprocity results were generated from recorded data of all local and external exchanges
what are the examples illustrate?
the initiatives studied had an agricultural focus because livelihoods in each location were agriculturally dependent. the examples illustrate the nature of institutional involvement, communication, and the agency of different stakeholders
different institutional levels helped formal associations?
three of the examples also suggest that involvement of multiple actors, i.e., community members, government extension officers, and ngos, from different institutional levels helped formal associations by providing opportunities to enhance local adaptive capacity by promoting networks of engagement, shaping human capacity by developing opportunities for improved technical/business skills, and establishing mechanisms for microfinance
fig. 3. direction of reciprocity for each location. note: reciprocity results were generated from recorded data of all local and external exchanges for 121 households during 2003-4. these are total number of exchanges, including cash and noncash exchange, i.e.. labour, gifts and food, and represent investment in, and use of, social networks. the communities themselves, to ensure that the core objective was the focus on supporting local communities to better adapt to climate change effects. of course, in doing so they had the byproduct of additionally supporting local poverty reduction and building food insecurity; in mozambique, concerns about climate change had been mainstreamed, i.e., they were becoming framed in the discourse of livelihoods, poverty, and food security to make them relevant to the beneficiaries of the collective action (osbahr et al. 2008). the initiatives studied had an agricultural focus because livelihoods in each location were agriculturally dependent. the examples illustrate the nature of institutional involvement, communication, and the agency of different stakeholders. they also demonstrate that the development of specific adaptation product choices or policy prescriptions, i.e., direct adaptation measures and not integrated approaches, may not be the most useful means of promoting adaptation in agriculture to climate change or in any sector because they impose a topdown rigid pathway with limited partnership, and greater sector fragmentation. it is important that adaptation policy has a participatory, reflexive dimension that builds on existing local risk management processes (osbahr et al. 2008). the key mechanisms in establishing the formal farming associations (table 4) are clear local membership structures, responsibilities being recognized by the different actors, and democratic leadership. cooperation remained effective because confidence was increased and expertise transferred. three of the examples also suggest that involvement of multiple actors, i.e., community members, government extension officers, and ngos, from different institutional levels helped formal associations by providing opportunities to enhance local adaptive capacity by promoting networks of engagement, shaping human capacity by developing opportunities for improved technical/business skills, and establishing mechanisms for microfinance. opportunities for microfinancing and business training, together with infrastructural support, will facilitate livelihood specialization and agricultural commercialization but can also finance riskspreading options that include diversification and access to land in a range of ecosystem and catchment contexts.
What is the SVI define as?
defined as the volume occupied by 1 g of sludge after settling for a period of 30 minutes
What does SVI stand for?
sludge volume index
the settleability of the sludge can be inferred through the settling curves, such as those presented in section 10.5.3. however, frequently, in a wastewater treatment plant, only a simplified evaluation of the settleability is desired, aiming at using the data for the operational control of the plant. under these conditions, the sludge volume index (svi) concept can be adopted. the svi is defined as the volume occupied by 1 g of sludge after settling for a period of 30 minutes. hence, instead of determining the interface level at various time intervals, a single measurement at 30 minutes is made. the svi is calculated through the following equation (see also figure 10.19): svi h30 x 106
How did hand lines influence fish associated with corals?
conversely, hand lines stood out as having low selectivity for coral-associated fishes, low damage, and moderate profitability. gill nets and beach seines had relatively low selectivity for coral-associated species and high damage to corals, but their profitability varied considerably between crew and owners, particularly for beach seine nets
What did the Crew members get?
members for both types of nets received less than any other gears. traps had high selectivity, lower profitability than hand lines or net crews, but low damage to corals
when gear profitability and damage to corals were considered with gear selectivity in the kenyan fishery, spear guns stood out as targeting a high proportion of coral-associated fishes, highly damaging per kilogram of fish caught, but also as being highly profitable (fig. 5). conversely, hand lines stood out as having low selectivity for coral-associated fishes, low damage, and moderate profitability. gill nets and beach seines had relatively low selectivity for coral-associated species and high damage to corals, but their profitability varied considerably between crew and owners, particularly for beach seine nets. crew members for both types of nets received less than any other gears. traps had high selectivity, lower profitability than hand lines or net crews, but low damage to corals.
Describe an issue with research allocation?
the research allocation for me has been a problem because i'm not a u.s. citizen i cannot blame the institution for not trying to be more forthcoming at getting my immigration situation status fixed
What is the reason for not getting promotion as a professor?
because i'm not the only one but it didn't help for me to get visas urm female i had to go and tell my division chief that if he didn't promote me to assistant professor
Unanimously but he never proposed to me for promotion?
i was leaving when my file went to the promotions committee, they jumped me all the way from instructor to assistant, unanimously but he never proposed me for promotion i always assumed that that was because i was a foreigner. urm female
the research allocation for me has been a problem because i'm not a u.s. citizen i cannot blame the institution for not trying to be more forthcoming at getting my immigration situation status fixed because i'm not the only one but it didn't help for me to get visas urm female i had to go and tell my division chief that if he didn't promote me to assistant professor, i was leaving when my file went to the promotions committee, they jumped me all the way from instructor to assistant, unanimously but he never proposed me for promotion i always assumed that that was because i was a foreigner. urm female
What are the kinds of projects both CDM and JI have?
both cdm and ji projects can be of different kinds: monoculture tree plantations, which theoretically absorb carbon from the atmosphere (carbon sinks); renewable energy projects such as solar or wind projects; improvements to existing energy generation; and so on
What are the consequences of CDM or JI project tactics?
its long-term consequences are (1) increased greenhouse gas emissions and (2) increased corporate profit obtained from their production
What reveals a closer scrutiny of "cleaning up" progress?
progress in "cleaning up" the atmosphere might appear to be going forward, while closer scrutiny reveals that no actual improvement is taking place
climate fraud and carbon colonialism 3 it appears that ji projects will mainly take place in eastern europe and russia, where equivalent reductions can be made more cheaply as costs and regulatory standards are lower. both cdm and ji projects can be of different kinds: monoculture tree plantations, which theoretically absorb carbon from the atmosphere (carbon sinks); renewable energy projects such as solar or wind projects; improvements to existing energy generation; and so on. the amount of credits earned by each project is calculated as the difference between the level of emissions with the project and the level of emissions that would occur in an imagined alternative future without the project. with such an imagined alternative future in mind, a corporate polluter can conjure up huge estimates of the emissions that would be supposedly produced without the company's cdm or ji project. this stratagem allows for a high (almost limitless) number of pollution credits that can be earned for each project. it allows the company to pollute more at other sites, to sell its credits to other polluters, or to engage in a combination of these lucrative tactics. its long-term consequences are (1) increased greenhouse gas emissions and (2) increased corporate profit obtained from their production. there is yet another provision in emissions trading that introduces increasing levels of complexity and confusion: the pollutants are interchangeable. in effect, a reduction in the emission of one greenhouse gas (e.g., carbon dioxide) enables a polluter to claim reductions in another gas (e.g., methane). thus, progress in "cleaning up" the atmosphere might appear to be going forward, while closer scrutiny reveals that no actual improvement is taking place.
What is the GCMS parameter
in global climate models (gcms), unresolved physical processes are included through simplified representations referred to as parameterizations. parameterizations typically contain one or more adjustable phenomenological parameters
What are the parameters?
parameter values can be estimated directly from theory or observations or by "tuning" the models by comparing model simulations to the climate record. because of the large number of parameters in comprehensive gcms, a thorough tuning effort that includes interactions between multiple parameters can be very computationally expensive
in global climate models (gcms), unresolved physical processes are included through simplified representations referred to as parameterizations. parameterizations typically contain one or more adjustable phenomenological parameters. parameter values can be estimated directly from theory or observations or by "tuning" the models by comparing model simulations to the climate record. because of the large number of parameters in comprehensive gcms, a thorough tuning effort that includes interactions between multiple parameters can be very computationally expensive. models may have compensating errors, where errors in one parameterization compensate for errors in other parameterizations to produce a realistic climate simulation (wang 2007; golaz et al. 2007; min et al. 2007; murphy et al. 2007). the risk is that, when moving to a new climate regime (e.g., increased greenhouse gases),
Because impact studies ultimately rely on the accuracy of climate input data, what is the model that must be used to quantify errors?
combined climate/crop model
How many regional model simulations were assessed?
nine
this can potentially be achieved by scaling down gcm outputs by various dynamic, empirical or statistic-dynamic methods (von storch 1995 ). since impact studies ultimately rely on the accuracy of climate input data (berg et al 2010 ), it is therefore crucial to quantify the errors inevitably propagated by such downscaling techniques through the combined climate/crop modelling. this study aims to assess the impact of such errors on the performance of yield prediction. we take west africa as a case study which illustrates well the dependence of crop production on climate variability and which benefits from a unique multi-model exercise of regional downscaling performed throughout the ensembles project (van der linden and mitchell 2009 ). we first assess the ability of a set of nine regional models simulations to reproduce the key climate factors for crop production by comparing selected regional model outputs and observations. we then use regional model outputs to drive a crop model and assess the accuracy of yield prediction compared to crop model simulations driven by climate observations. finally, a simple bias correction (michelangeli et al 2009 is applied to regional climate model outputs to improve the accuracy of yield prediction.
How many species were identified in Ambient and Delayed that responded to drying-rewetting pulses in the laboratory?
we identified 404 species in ambient and 492 species in delayed that responded to drying-rewetting pulses in the laboratory
Why were some samples from the original six field replicates excluded in downstream molecular analysis?
some samples from the original six field replicates were excluded in downstream molecular analysis because they either failed to amplify, had less than 250 sequences or were outliers in our non-metric multidimensional scaling analysis
Where are additional details on pyrosequencing results reported?
additional details on pyrosequencing results are reported in appendix s1 and evans wallenstein (2012
p 0.01 for the 3 clusters in ambient and delayed) when tested with alternative method developed by (friedman alm 2012) that accounts for bias presented by composition data, although we did see slight changes in clustering at very fine scales p 0.05 for these groups, data not shown). filtering to exclude rare and low-abundance sequences resulted in a group of 3113 otus from the ambient field treatment, and 2953 from the delayed treatment. from this pool, we identified 404 species in ambient and 492 species in delayed that responded to drying-rewetting pulses in the laboratory, based on consistency in response among replicates. some samples from the original six field replicates were excluded in downstream molecular analysis because they either failed to amplify, had less than 250 sequences or were outliers in our non-metric multidimensional scaling analysis (resulting in, e.g. four replicates in initial time point of ambient field treatment, see fig. 2). additional details on pyrosequencing results are reported in appendix s1 and evans wallenstein (2012).
What were the second set of experiments?
a second set of experiments were carried out in which the swm model was forced by merraestimates of the heating and transient forcing terms associated with each reof
What were the responses to the forcing?
the responses to the forcing estimates show a remarkable agreement with the reofs, indicating that the merra estimates of the forcing appear to be realistic
How is the importance of transient eddy forcing further supported and by who?
the importance of transient eddy forcing during the 1993 u.s. midwest flood is further supported by mo et al. (1995), who found that transient eddy feedback on the mean zonal flow played an important role in the development of the trough that remained locked on the lee side of the rocky mountains during that summer
a second set of experiments were carried out in which the swm model was forced by merraestimates of the heating and transient forcing terms associated with each reof. the responses to the forcing estimates show a remarkable agreement with the reofs, indicating that the merra estimates of the forcing appear to be realistic. a key result is that the transient vorticity fluxes are by far the dominant forcing terms for the leading reof wave structures, with diabatic heating and temperature transients playing a secondary role. these results are generally consistent with those of liu et al (1998), who found that transients played an important role in maintaining both the jja 1993 and the april, may, june (amj) 1988 north american circulation anomalies, although at seasonal time scales they found that diabatic heating also played a role, especially during 1988. the importance of transient eddy forcing during the 1993 u.s. midwest flood is further supported by mo et al. (1995), who found that transient eddy feedback on the mean zonal flow played an important role in the development of the trough that remained locked on the lee side of the rocky mountains during that summer.
Which regional model was nested within time-slice global atmospheric model experiments conducted by the HadAM3H model?
regional model mm5
What can the regional model reproduce better?
extremes of precipitation
Where did the regional model overestimate the precipitation in all model?
over the andes region
we present an analysis of a regional simulation of present-day climate (1981-1990) over southern south america. the regional model mm5 was nested within time-slice global atmospheric model experiments conducted by the hadam3h model. we evaluate the capability of the model in simulating the observed climate with emphasis on low-level circulation patterns and surface variables, such as precipitation and surface air mean, maximum and minimum temperatures. the regional model performance was evaluated in terms of seasonal means, seasonal cycles, interannual variability and extreme events. overall, the regional model is able to capture the main features of the observed mean surface climate over south america, its seasonal evolution and the regional detail due to topographic forcing. the observed regional patterns of surface air temperatures (mean, maxima and minima) are well reproduced. biases are mostly within 3  c, temperature being overestimated over central argentina and underestimated in mountainous regions during all seasons. biases in northeastern argentina and southeastern brazil are positive during austral spring season and negative in other seasons. in general, maximum temperatures are better represented than minimum temperatures. warm bias is larger during austral summer for maximum temperature and during austral winter for minimum temperature, mainly over central argentina. the broad spatial pattern of precipitation and its seasonal evolution are well captured; however, the regional model overestimates the precipitation over the andes region in all seasons and in southern brazil during summer. precipitation amounts are underestimated over the la plata basin from fall to spring. extremes of precipitation are better reproduced by the regional model compared with the driving model. interannual variability is well reproduced too, but strongly regulated by boundary conditions, particularly during summer months. overall, taking into account the quality of the simulation, we can conclude that the regional model is capable in reproducing the main regional patterns and seasonal cycle of surface variables. the present reference simulation constitutes the basis to examine the climate change simulations resulting from the a2 and b2 forcing scenarios which are being reported in a separate study. keywords regional climate modelling  southern south america  present climate abbreviation gcms general circulation models rcms regional climate models lsm land-surface model sst sea surface temperature llj low level jet djf december-january-february jja june-july-august slp sea level pressure
What have been developed to measure poverty reduction?
the mdgs have been developed in order to obtain measurable targets for poverty reduction
What does poverty reduction mean?
they represent a multi-facetted framework, allowing for a multidimensional definition of poverty
What is Poverty Alleviation
as the overarching concern is poverty eradication, all individual objectives, targets and indicators have to be interpreted from this perspective
the mdgs have been developed in order to obtain measurable targets for poverty reduction. they represent a multi-facetted framework, allowing for a multidimensional definition of poverty, although the reduction of income poverty has the predominant position of goal no. 1, and is an expected indirect outcome of the achievement of most other goals. as the overarching concern is poverty eradication, all individual objectives, targets and indicators have to be interpreted from this perspective. it should be kept in mind that the use of quantifiable targets might stress some facets of poverty more than others, so that generally, a somewhat wider interpretation is considered as adequate. nevertheless, formulations are clear, and the overall success in meeting the development challenge encoded in the mdgs will ultimately have to be measured in terms of the pre-defined quantitative indicators. in detail, the eight mdgs are (un 2005):
what does the pioneering model represents?
pioneering model simulations represent a large step forward in scientists' ability to elucidate the interactions of the physical climate system with the global carbon cycle, they are also subject to important limitations
state some example?
for example, emissions from land use changes are prescribed as an external input, and the associated changes in land cover are not explicitly modeled. in addition, a substantial number of processes and carbon pools are not included in such models
which approach is considered for risk assessment?
complementary approach is that of risk assessment, a method often used to identify and assess the risks associated with the operation of complex systems, such as nuclear power plants or chemical factories (kammen and hassenzahl 2001
although these pioneering model simulations represent a large step forward in scientists' ability to elucidate the interactions of the physical climate system with the global carbon cycle, they are also subject to important limitations. in both models, key processes are highly parameterized and poorly constrained. for example, emissions from land use changes are prescribed as an external input, and the associated changes in land cover are not explicitly modeled. in addition, a substantial number of processes and carbon pools are not included in such models. several of these pools and processes could be vulnerable--that is, they are at risk of losing large amounts of carbon to the atmosphere as a result of a changing climate and/or human drivers (e.g., markets, policies, and demographic dynamics). incorporating of all these pools and processes into coupled models is a difficult task, particularly because some processes operate through low-probability, high-consequence stochastic events. as a result, coupled climate-carbon models currently have limited capability for assessing the full magnitude and all risks associated with carbon-climate-human feedbacks, and their capability will continue to be limited for the foreseeable future. an alternative and in many respects complementary approach is that of risk assessment, a method often used to identify and assess the risks associated with the operation of complex systems, such as nuclear power plants or chemical factories (kammen and hassenzahl 2001). in a risk analysis, the magnitude and likelihood of certain processes that may lead to catastrophic failures are determined and assessed in order to arrive at
Mention changes in the geographical environment?
but its influence is not the determining influence, inasmuch as the changes and development of society proceed at an incomparably faster rate than the changes and development of geographical environment. in the space of 3000 years three different social systems have been successfully superseded in europe: the primitive communal system, the slave system and the feudal system
Describe the geographical conditions in Europe
yet during this period geographical conditions in europe have either not changed at all, or have changed so slightly that geography takes no note of them. and that is quite natural. changes in geographical environment of any importance require millions of years, whereas a few hundred or a couple of thousand years are enough for even very important changes in the system of human society.19
in the twentieth century, however, other arguments, more sociological or materialist, have existed alongside the viconian one. they too have continued to justify the separation of human from natural history. one influential though perhaps infamous example would be the booklet on the marxist philosophy of history that stalin published in 1938 dialectical and historical materialism this is how stalin put the problem: geographical environment is unquestionably one of the constant and indispensable conditions of development of society and, of course, [it] accelerates or retards its development. but its influence is not the determining influence, inasmuch as the changes and development of society proceed at an incomparably faster rate than the changes and development of geographical environment. in the space of 3000 years three different social systems have been successfully superseded in europe: the primitive communal system, the slave system and the feudal system. yet during this period geographical conditions in europe have either not changed at all, or have changed so slightly that geography takes no note of them. and that is quite natural. changes in geographical environment of any importance require millions of years, whereas a few hundred or a couple of thousand years are enough for even very important changes in the system of human society.19
What probably explains why the investment levels proposed by the UNFCCC appear so small?
estimates are not made for sectors such as mining and manufacturing, energy, the retail and financial sectors and tourism. this probably explains why the investment levels proposed by the unfccc appear so small
Approximately what percentage of the anticipated total burden in low and middle-income countries relate to a disease burden?
for health the 'intervention sets' that were costed relate to a disease burden that is approximately 30-50% of the anticipated total burden in lowand middle-income countries
Including ecosystems protection could add how much cost per year?
including ecosystems protection could add a further $65-$300 billion per year in costs
for a number of reasons discussed above, and given in more detail in the following section, we believe that the unfccc estimate of investment needs is probably an under-estimate by a factor of between 2 and 3 for the included sectors. it could be much more if other sectors are considered. we conclude that for coastal protection the factor of under-estimation could be 2 to 3. for infrastructure it may be several times higher, at the lower end of the cost range. for health the 'intervention sets' that were costed relate to a disease burden that is approximately 30-50% of the anticipated total burden in lowand middle-income countries (and do not include interventions in high-income countries). including ecosystems protection could add a further $65-$300 billion per year in costs. furthermore, estimates are not made for sectors such as mining and manufacturing, energy, the retail and financial sectors and tourism. this probably explains why the investment levels proposed by the unfccc appear so small - roughly the annual cost of running two or three olympic games. that this represents a doubling of current oda only highlights the very low current level of development assistance.
Will the social and economic affects of climate change increase or decrease inequalities worldwide?
the social and economic eff ects of climate change will increase inequalities worldwide. most vulnerable people live in urban settlements in developing countries that have limited resources to adapt to climate change and are already aff ected by several natural-related risks, such
Where are the people most vulnerable to the affects of climate change located?
most vulnerable people live in urban settlements in developing countries that have limited resources to adapt to climate change and are already aff ected by several natural-related risks, such as fl oods and landslides.106,107 paradoxically, urban areas in high-income nations, which are the greatest contributors to greenhouse gas emissions, have much more
What should the focus be around these affected communities be when is has to do with climate change?
research and debate should focus on how settlements will be aff ected and how to best adapt to climate change.14 the social and economic eff ects of climate change will increase inequalities worldwide. most vulnerable people live in urban settlements in developing countries th
there is growing evidence, through simulations and empirical studies, that human settlements, both rural and urban, will be greatly aff ected by the irreversible outcomes of climate change, even in the most optimistic scenarios.105 research and debate should focus on how settlements will be aff ected and how to best adapt to climate change.14 the social and economic eff ects of climate change will increase inequalities worldwide. most vulnerable people live in urban settlements in developing countries that have limited resources to adapt to climate change and are already aff ected by several natural-related risks, such as fl oods and landslides.106,107 paradoxically, urban areas in high-income nations, which are the greatest contributors to greenhouse gas emissions, have much more resource capacity to adapt. climate change debates on urban settlements tend to be focused on mitigation and, consequently, are limited.
What could adaption of managed forests involve?
adaptation of managed forests could involve changes in tree species composition, harvesting patterns, pest control and location of managed woodland
What does the review by Howden provide a good overview of?
the review by howden et al. (2007) provides a good overview of adaptation in agriculture, forestry and fisheries
What may the adaption of the sector through decision making include?
adaptation of the sector through decision making may include policy changes, the development of infrastructure and general changes to the decision-making environment
there are a wide range of possible adaptation strategies to climate change within agriculture, fisheries and forestry. these span a range of scales from farms to governments, and from relatively simple autonomous changes in the way agricultural businesses are managed to complex programmes of research and development lasting decades. many authors provide lists and categories for adaptation strategies for this sector, with much in common from one to the other. the review by howden et al. (2007) provides a good overview of adaptation in agriculture, forestry and fisheries. it considers many adaptation options as either changes in management decisions or changes in the decision environment. changes in management within cropping systems include altering crops or crop varieties, more efficient management of water, altering the timing or location of cropping, and improving the effectiveness of crop protection measures. within livestock systems many adaptation options are connected with maintaining the availability of fodder and feed and reducing heat stress from animal housing. adaptation of managed forests could involve changes in tree species composition, harvesting patterns, pest control and location of managed woodland. marine fisheries adaptation is less sensitive to management changes, except for changes in catch size (howden et al., 2007). adaptation of the sector through decision making may include policy changes, the development of infrastructure and general changes to the decision-making environment. it is also clear that there is an enormous range of actors within the sector as well: individuals and collectives, private and public institutions. given this diversity and complexity of possible adaptation options and actors, how well can the spectrum of possible adaptation strategies within agriculture, forestry and fisheries be costed and summarised in a single or a few global headline figures?
What are invaluable tools for studying potential responses to climate change?
multi-factor manipulative experiments and modeling
What can you reference to see that forests have responded to recent changes in climate?
long-term ecological studies and eddy-flux measurement
elevated [c021, warmer temperatures, and changed moisture regimes will interact to affect future trees and forests. it is dif ficult to discern the interactive and possibly nonlinear responses of forests to multiple stresses, particularly using historical data or retrospective studies. multi-factor manipulative experiments and modeling are invaluable for examining the possible responses to climate change, and for identifying the interactive "surprises" that are impossible to discern from single-factor studies (norby and luo, 2004 ). long-term ecological studies and eddy-flux measurements also provide evidence that forest have responded to recent changes in climate fr a nklin et ai., 1990; falk et ai., 20 0 8 ). therefore, when ever possible, we focus the following discussion on evidence from these types of experiments to infer the responses of trees and forest to climate change.
how toxins in shellfish is produced?
when some harmful algae in the genus alexandrium bloom, toxins that can accumulate in shellfish are produced
What are the chances of symptoms that can occur if shellfish is consumed?
when these shellfish are consumed, gastrointestinal illness and neurological symptoms, known as paralytic shellfish poisoning (psp), can occur
what is PSP?
d. when these shellfish are consumed, gastrointestinal illness and neurological symptoms, known as paralytic shellfish poisoning (psp), can occur
importance: when some harmful algae in the genus alexandrium bloom, toxins that can accumulate in shellfish are produced. when these shellfish are consumed, gastrointestinal illness and neurological symptoms, known as paralytic shellfish poisoning (psp), can occur. death can result in extreme cases. because growth of alexandrium is regulated in part by water temperature, warm water conditions appropriate for bloom formation may expand seasonally, increasing the risk of illness. objective: a quantitative projection of future conditions appropriate for alexandrium bloom formation in puget sound. method: monthly average sea surface temperature was projected for quartermaster harbor, puget sound, for the 2030s, 2050s, and 2090s based on statistical downscaling of 21 global climate models. the projections were applied to previously published empirical models relating temperature and salinity to alexandrium growth. for more detail, see jacobs et al. 2015.132
What requires front-line employees to take personal initiative to anticipate customer needs?
due to the heterogeneous and idiosyncratic nature of customer needs and demands, the uncertainty and volatility involved in customer service require front-line employees to take personal initiative to anticipate customer needs
How is a customer's service experience often determined?
a customer's service experience is often determined by the customer's repeated encounters with multiple service employees in the service establishment
What may affect customer satisfaction with the overall experience of staying in the hotel?
pcsp aggregated across front-line employees at the establishment level may affect customer satisfaction with the overall experience of staying in the hotel
as we have argued earlier, due to the heterogeneous and idiosyncratic nature of customer needs and demands, the uncertainty and volatility involved in customer service require front-line employees to take personal initiative to anticipate customer needs, prevent and remove potential obstacles in service delivery before a problem "hits the surface," address the root cause of a service problem so the problem does not re-occur, follow through in a persistent manner on issues that may affect customer service, challenge "tried and tested" ways of delivering service, and continuously identify new opportunities for improving service quality. to the extent that employees successfully engage in pcsp, they are more likely to "do it right the first time," rather than having to remedy customer dissatisfaction after service problems and failures have occurred (liao, 2007). we argue that such forward-looking behaviors, which emphasize incessant and unrelenting improvement in service quality, should contribute to customer satisfaction beyond the impact of general service performance that typically aims at fulfilling basic, prescribed role behaviors. in addition, a customer's service experience is often determined by the customer's repeated encounters with multiple service employees in the service establishment (liao chuang, 2004; liao et al., 2009). for example, a hotel guest may interact with the bell person and the employees at the front-desk, concierge, restaurants, fitness facility, and so on. consequently, we argue that pcsp aggregated across front-line employees at the establishment level may affect customer satisfaction with the overall experience of staying in the hotel. moreover, our focus on aggregated pcsp at the establishment level when assessing its practical significance is consistent with extant service research, which, due to similar considerations, has largely focused on investigating establishment-level relationships between collective service behaviors and important organizational outcomes (e.g., borucki burke, 1999; liao chuang 2004; schneider et al., 2005). therefore, we propose: initiative climate, self-efficacy and pcsp 15
What is the role of the model optimization protocol?
the model's optimizing protocol (or more picturesquely, the putative social planner) balances damages against abatement costs with the goal of maximizing utility - not income or consumption
What does the Negishi procedure consist of?
stripped of its complexity, the negishi procedure assigns larger weight to the welfare of richer regions, thereby eliminating the global welfare gain from income redistribution
iams that optimize welfare for the world as a whole - modelled as one aggregate region - maximize the result of a single utility function by making abatement and investment choices that determine the emissions of greenhouse gases; emissions then determine climate outcomes and damages, one of the inputs into utility. this utility function is a diminishing function of per capita consumption. the iam chooses emission levels for all time periods simultaneously - when more emissions are allowed, future periods lose consumption to climate damages; when emissions are lowered, abatement costs decrease current consumption. the model's optimizing protocol (or more picturesquely, the putative social planner) balances damages against abatement costs with the goal of maximizing utility - not income or consumption. because utility is modelled with diminishing returns to consumption, the value to society of a given cost or benefit depends on the per capita income level at the time when it occurs. a change to income in a rich time period is given a lower weight than an identical change to income in a poor time period (even if the rate of pure time preference is zero). if, as usual, per capita income and consumption are projected to keep growing, the future will be richer than the present.24under that assumption, the richer future matters less, in comparison to the relatively poorer present. regional welfare optimizing iams apply the same logic, but with separate utility functions for each region. the model is solved by choosing abatement levels that maximize the sum of utility in all regions. seemingly innocuous, the disaggregation of global iams into component regions raises a gnarly problem for modellers: with identical, diminishing marginal returns to income in every region, the model could increase utility by moving income towards the poorest regions. this could be done by reallocating responsibility for regional damage and abatement costs, or inducing transfers between regions for the purpose of fostering technical change, or funding adaptation, or purchasing emission allowances or any other channel available in the model for interregional transfers. modellers have typically taken this tendency toward equalization of income as evidence of the need for a technical fix. in order to model climate economics without any distracting rush toward global equality, many models apply the littleknown technique of 'negishi weights' (negishi, 1972). stripped of its complexity, the negishi procedure assigns larger weight to the welfare of richer regions, thereby eliminating the global welfare gain from income redistribution.25
What has the research demonstrated and its results?
this research demonstrated that microbial community-level responses to climate change affected the ecosystem function of som decomposition. our results highlighted two major mechanisms by which the microbial community can mediate terrestrial c cycling feedback to climate change
What are the mechanisms highlighted by the research?
first, microbial ability to decompose som increased with elevated co2 at ambient and warmed temperatures due to increased substrate respiration rates or/and enzyme activities. second, microbial temperature sensitivity increased in response to warming at ambient and elevated co2, suggesting a positive feedback between microbial activities related to som decomposition and climate warming
What is the conclusion taken by this study?
our study indicates that positive microbial community feedbacks in response to eco2 and warming can accelerate microbial decomposition and potentially lead to soil c losses
this research demonstrated that microbial community-level responses to climate change affected the ecosystem function of som decomposition. our results highlighted two major mechanisms by which the microbial community can mediate terrestrial c cycling feedback to climate change. first, microbial ability to decompose som increased with elevated co2 at ambient and warmed temperatures due to increased substrate respiration rates or/and enzyme activities. second, microbial temperature sensitivity increased in response to warming at ambient and elevated co2, suggesting a positive feedback between microbial activities related to som decomposition and climate warming. overall, our study indicates that positive microbial community feedbacks in response to eco2 and warming can accelerate microbial decomposition and potentially lead to soil c losses.
What puts species at risk of extinction by shifting the ''climate envelope'' within which they can persist outside of their current geographic range?
rapid climate change
What does the magnitude of the risk depend on?
the rate at which species are capable of extending their ranges
What do both reconstructions estimate range expansion rates between for maple?
172 and 214 m/yr
rapid climate change puts species at risk of extinction by shifting the ''climate envelope'' within which they can persist outside of their current geographic range (davis and zabinski 1992, thomas et al. 2004). the magnitude of this risk depends on the rate at which species are capable of extending their ranges. the ranges of many north american trees will have to expand at rates of 100-1000 m/yr to track the predicted climatic changes of this century (davis and zabinski 1992, iverson and prasad 2002). while such rapid rates of spread would seem unlikely for long-lived sedentary organisms like trees, interpretations of fossil pollen data suggest that rapid migration was typical for tree populations responding to postglacial warming (davis 1981, macdonald 1993, king and herstrom 1997). the panels in fig. 1 are adapted from the most widely cited estimates of north american tree migration rates (davis 1981, delcourt and delcourt 1987). both reconstructions estimate range expansion rates between 172 and 214 m/yr for maple
What are the subjects of ongoing debate and discuss its consequences?
the timing and abruptness of the initiation and termination of the early holocene african humid period are subjects of ongoing debate, with direct consequences for our understanding of abrupt climate change, paleoenvironments, and early human cultural development
From where the proxy evidance comes from?
here, we provide proxy evidence from the horn of africa region that documents abrupt transitions into and out of the african humid period in northeast africa
What does synchronous abrupt transitions at other East African sites suggests?
similar and generally synchronous abrupt transitions at other east african sites suggest that rapid shifts in hydroclimate are a regionally coherent feature. our analysis suggests that the termination of the african humid period in the horn of africa occurred within centuries, underscoring the nonlinearity of the region ' s hydroclimate
the timing and abruptness of the initiation and termination of the early holocene african humid period are subjects of ongoing debate, with direct consequences for our understanding of abrupt climate change, paleoenvironments, and early human cultural development. here, we provide proxy evidence from the horn of africa region that documents abrupt transitions into and out of the african humid period in northeast africa. similar and generally synchronous abrupt transitions at other east african sites suggest that rapid shifts in hydroclimate are a regionally coherent feature. our analysis suggests that the termination of the african humid period in the horn of africa occurred within centuries, underscoring the nonlinearity of the region ' s hydroclimate.
Competent grain size is determined using which equation?
competent grain size is determined from the shields equation
What is the Shields equation?
shields equation: d50= r ghs /[( rs- r g t *c 50], where r and rs are fl uid and sediment densities, respectively, g is gravitational acceleration, h is bankfull fl ow depth, s is channel slope, and t *c 50 is the critical shields stress for motion of d50, de fi ned according to lamb et al. (2008) as t *c 50=0.15 s0.25
The overall lack of mid-network storage zones indicate what?
the overall lack of mid-network storage zones indicates that bed load transport through this sub-basin is relatively fast and ef fi cient. 8 j.r. goode et al. geomorphology 139-140 (2012) 1 - 15
fig. 5. spatial distribution of bankfull competence (median grain size d50) that can be moved as bed load by bankfull fl ow) within the middle fork salmon river, central idaho. competent grain size is determined from the shields equation: d50= r ghs /[( rs- r g t *c 50], where r and rs are fl uid and sediment densities, respectively, g is gravitational acceleration, h is bankfull fl ow depth, s is channel slope, and t *c 50 is the critical shields stress for motion of d50, de fi ned according to lamb et al. (2008) as t *c 50=0.15 s0.25. circled reaches are long-term bed load storage zones (low-gradient, uncon fi ned channels with relatively low competence). the overall lack of mid-network storage zones indicates that bed load transport through this sub-basin is relatively fast and ef fi cient. 8 j.r. goode et al. geomorphology 139-140 (2012) 1 - 15
Does a biological treatment process tend to be economical or expensive?
a biological treatment process tends to be economical if it can be operated at low hydraulic detention times and at sufficiently long solids retention times to allow microorganism growth
Can the retention time of the solids be controlled?
the solids retention time could not be controlled independently of the hydraulic detention time
How was the above problem solved?
the development of high-rate anaerobic processes solved this problem
a biological treatment process tends to be economical if it can be operated at low hydraulic detention times and at sufficiently long solids retention times to allow microorganism growth. this was for many years the greatest problem of anaerobic digestion, as the solids retention time could not be controlled independently of the hydraulic detention time. thus, the microorganisms involved in the process, which have low growth rates, needed extremely long retention times and consequently reactors of large volumes. the development of high-rate anaerobic processes solved this problem, since these processes are capable of allowing the presence of a large amount of high-activity biomass, which can be maintained in the reactor even when operated at low hydraulic detention times. if sufficient contact can be guaranteed between the biomass and the organic compounds, high volumetric loads can then be applied to the system.
How can climate change also affect the poor?
through its impacts on the availability of non-priced goods and services from renewable natural resource endowments
Which two characteristics aside from their renewability make environmental resources different from other economic activities?
their spontaneous occurrence, and the fact they are so often held under communal tenure
What can removal of mangroves and wetlands along coastal areas increase?
saltwater incursions into groundwater sources, increasing salt levels in irrigation water and decreasing agricultural yields
climate change can also affect the poor through its impacts on the availability of non-priced goods and services from renewable natural resource endowments. examples of natural resource goods which are relevant to household consumption, production, and asset accumulation include: wild foods, medicines, consumption/production goods (gum, soap, salt, resins, dyes, etc), construction materials, energy sources, furnishings, tools and utensils, fertilizer, grazing and fodder, clay for pottery, timber, and mineral resources. "two characteristics aside from their renewability make environmental resources different from other economic activities: their spontaneous occurrence, and the fact they are so often held under communal tenure." (cavendish 2000, 1980) it is also common for these types of goods to be non-traded, even in local markets. for example, only 19% of surveyed villages bordering the sariska tiger reserve in india had local markets for firewood even though it constitutes 59% of the total biomass energy consumed (heltberg 2001; heltberg, arndt, and sekhar 2000). in aggregate, natural resources also provide services for soil conservation, water availability and quality, biodiversity conservation, carbon sequestration, and air quality (duraiappah 1998). for example, wetlands can filter pollutants from water sources and improve the quality of irrigation and drinking water; forest cover on steep slopes can prevent erosion and loss of top soil for low-land fields; and natural habitats support pollinator and pest predator species which reduce the costs of inputs for cultivation (sunderlin et al. 2005; kevan 1999). these ecosystem services affect the quality of life for households as well as the profitability of agricultural technologies. to illustrate, increased erosion from deforestation may increase silt levels in irrigation water, thereby decreasing the efficiency of irrigation canals. likewise, removal of mangroves and wetlands along coastal areas can increase saltwater incursions into groundwater sources, increasing salt levels in irrigation water and decreasing agricultural yields.
What is electoral change?
agricultural production contributes significantly to ghg emissions, both directly, through agricultural practices, and indirectly, via land-cover change as a result of opening new agricultural lands
Describe climate change?
despite the many reviews on the impact of agriculture on climate change, most notably those conducted through the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc), there is still substantial uncertainty associated with many of the estimates (26). 2.2.1. direct emissions
Methane Description?
direct emissions. of global anthropogenic emissions, direct emissions from agricultural production accounted for about 60% of n2o emissions and about 50% of methane (ch4) in 2005, with a wide range of uncertainty on agricultural and total emissions
agricultural production contributes significantly to ghg emissions, both directly, through agricultural practices, and indirectly, via land-cover change as a result of opening new agricultural lands. despite the many reviews on the impact of agriculture on climate change, most notably those conducted through the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc), there is still substantial uncertainty associated with many of the estimates (26). 2.2.1. direct emissions. of global anthropogenic emissions, direct emissions from agricultural production accounted for about 60% of n2o emissions and about 50% of methane (ch4) in 2005, with a wide range of uncertainty on agricultural and total emissions
Is qualitative results are seen as a conclusive analysis of climate change?
it is important to note that these qualitative results are not to be seen as a conclusive analysis of climate change effects on forest disturbances, but rather present a formalized framework for synthesizing current knowledge
How the influence of climate-mediated direct, indirect, and interaction effects should be further tested?
as such, the influence of climate-mediated direct, indirect, and interaction effects reported here should be further tested using quantitative analyses and models
What is local deviations from the influences synthesized for heterogeneous groups?
particularly for heterogeneous groups such as insects, local deviations from the influences synthesized here are likely 8
it is important to note that these qualitative results are not to be seen as a conclusive analysis of climate change effects on forest disturbances, but rather present a formalized framework for synthesizing current knowledge. as such, the influence of climate-mediated direct, indirect, and interaction effects reported here should be further tested using quantitative analyses and models. our qualitative analysis, for instance, disregards local differences in disturbance responses to climate (cf. figure 3) and integrates across the available information at the level of agent groups. particularly for heterogeneous groups such as insects, local deviations from the influences synthesized here are likely 8. the relatively high prevalence of
How many clusters were revealed ?
the cluster analysis revealed four clusters
What site was removed from later analysis ?
chamberlain creek
What overlapped on the Middle Fork ?
three clades overlapped on the middle fork
the cluster analysis revealed four clusters (fig. 2) that were robust to the dissimilarity criterion applied, with one exception (the west fork of chamberlain creek); this site was removed from later analyses of cluster predictors. there was some spatial structure to the clustering, but factors other than distance were also important. all of the sites on the south fork clustered together (designated c1), but three clades overlapped on the middle fork (designated c2, c3 and c4), and some sites on the upper salmon grouped with c1 and others with c2 (fig. 1b). clustering appeared to capture much of the site by year interaction noted in a previous analysis (zabel achord 2004): clustering significantly improved model fit over site alone
To what extent do climate modellers and ecologists collaborate in climate change research?
there is little collaboration between climate modellers and ecologists
Is it unanimous that incorporating biospheric feedback into climate models is important?
there is increasing recognition within the climate modelling community that incorporating biospheric feedback into climate models is important
Is interdisciplinary collaboration important?
interdisciplinary collaboration between climatologists, modellers, physiologists, palaeoecologists and resource managers, to name just a few, is urgently needed
the information compiled in this review indicates that climate change research in australia has been somewhat fragmented. there is little collaboration between climate modellers and ecologists, although there is increasing recognition within the climate modelling community that incorporating biospheric feedback into climate models is important (a. pitman, pers. comm.). but even within the ecological community, there is little integration between those monitoring long-term change, those modelling impacts on particular species and those doing experimental work on the direct physiological effects of changes in co2, temperature and water availability. interdisciplinary collaboration between climatologists, modellers, physiologists, palaeoecologists and resource managers, to name just a few, is urgently needed. acknowledgements i am grateful to alison basden, david bowman, rod fensham, ove hoegh-guldberg, roger jones, dick williams, ian lunt and andy pitman for their constructive comments on the manuscript. i also thank sandy berry, david bowman, rod fensham, ken green, david hilbert, mark howden, ian lunt, julian reid, chris tidemann, dick williams and jann williams for advice and access to unpublished work. references
What does observations of Antarctic sea ice indicate?
observations of antarctic sea ice indicate that much of the ice cover is less than one meter thick with local maxima approaching 3 meters in the ross and weddell seas (e.g. timmermann et al. 2004
How is the simulated distribution of ice thickness around the continent?
compared to observations, the simulated distribution of ice thickness around the continent (figure 4) is reasonable
What does the thick Weddell sea ice cover result in?
the thick weddell sea ice cover results in excessive equatorward ice transport which influences the global hydrological cycle (hack et al., 2005) and contributes to the large ice extent in this region
although this bias is present throughout the year, the amplitude of the annual cycle of sh ice area simulated by the model is realistic (figure 5). observations of antarctic sea ice indicate that much of the ice cover is less than one meter thick with local maxima approaching 3 meters in the ross and weddell seas (e.g. timmermann et al. 2004). compared to observations, the simulated distribution of ice thickness around the continent (figure 4) is reasonable. however, the ice is biased thick especially on the eastern side of the antarctic peninsula, which exceeds 5 m in thickness. this is likely related to excessive ice convergence in this region. the thick weddell sea ice cover results in excessive equatorward ice transport which influences the global hydrological cycle (hack et al., 2005) and contributes to the large ice extent in this region. the annual cycle of the ice thickness distribution averaged over the atlantic sector of the southern ocean (from 60w-20e and poleward of 50s) (figure 6) clearly demonstrates the largely seasonal nature of the antarctic sea ice, with maximum open water areas approaching 80% in the summer. this results in a large percentage of thin ice cover in the austral fall as this open water freezes over. the majority of the sea ice remains below 1.5 m in thickness throughout the year. however, the amount of ridged ice in the thickest category is excessive for the large region that encompasses this average. this is associated with the excessively thick sea ice along the antarctic peninsula. 3.3 the t85-gx1 control simulation compared to the t42-gx1 control simulation
Who are included assessment ?
the assessment should include those specialists and staff who are relevant to the identified values
What information are needed for assessment?
existing data, model results, assessments, and plans are used whenever possible. information needs differ according to the values and scope of each assessment
What factors associated with assessment?
document critical data gaps, rationale and assumptions for inferences, references for data sources, and confidence (or uncertainty) associated with assessment outputs
who participates in the assessment? assessment of vulnerability is an important interdisciplinary issue for national forests. the assessment should include those specialists and staff who are relevant to the identified values. this may represent many specialties as water resources affect and are affected by most components of the environment and management activities. available time and staff often limit participation, and limits should be noted so that the next iterations of assessment include missing input or involvement. which information is needed? existing data, model results, assessments, and plans are used whenever possible. information needs differ according to the values and scope of each assessment. whereas some important information may be acquired during the assessment, some may be too difficult, costly, or timeconsuming to obtain, and the assessment must proceed without it. this should be explicitly acknowledged, and the missing information can be prioritized for future acquisition. a useful outcome of assessments is knowledge of what is not known but is considered to be important. important considerations for step 1 include: * involve partners who can improve the assessment. * determine the geographic scale of the analysis. * determine which water resources are most important in the analysis area. * determine which relevant broad-scale evaluations, assessments, and plans are available. * describe why a particular place is important. at a minimum, consider water uses, aquatic species and infrastructure (roads and recreational facilities) that could be affected. * identify the most important places if possible, categorize their value (high, moderate, low), and map them. * consider potential uses (species, diversions, etc.) downstream of the watershed. * identify ecological thresholds or risk levels (flow requirements, temperatures, etc.) associated with specific resource values. * document critical data gaps, rationale and assumptions for inferences, references for data sources, and confidence (or uncertainty) associated with assessment outputs.
Who have maximum annual adult survival  ?
the maximum annual adult survival is higher for females than for males
supplementary appendix s3 details some of the results outlined here, including the underlying parameter estimates and their uncertainties. breeding success is a decreasing function of sica during the rearing period (fig. 3). the cmr model selection procedure reveals effects of sica on adult survival of both sexes during all four seasons (table 1). the models with d aic  4 include effects in all seasons, those with d aic  3 include effects in the laying, incubation, and rearing seasons, and those with d aic  2 include effects during the incubation and rearing seasons. there was no support for effects of sica on the probability of return to the breeding colony (s3). figure 4 shows adult survival as a function of annual sica and seasonal differences in sica. survival probability is a concave nonlinear function of annual sica (fig. 4a and b). the maximum annual adult survival is higher for females than for males (0.96 and 0.93, respectively). the effect of seasonal differences in sica (fig. 4c and d) is small compared to the effect of annual sica, but it has an important effect on the difference between male and female survival. the effect of seasonal differences are positive when annual sica 0, and negative when annual sica 0.
What do many food system activities give rise to?
many food system activities give rise to production of greenhouse gases (ghgs) and other climate change forcings, such as aerosols and changes in albedo (22
What total does adding the figures across the aggregate global food chain, and assuming a growth in emissions of 3% per year give?
adding the figures across the aggregate global food chain, and assuming a growth in emissions of 3% per year, gives the total global ghg emissions for the year 2008 in the range of 9,800 to 16,900 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (mtco2e) from the food system, inclusive of indirect emissions associated with land-cover change
What percentage of total global anthropogenic GHG emissions does the food system contribute?
thus, the food system contributes 19%-29% of total global anthropogenic ghg emissions (using data for nonfood sectors from reference 23
many food system activities give rise to production of greenhouse gases (ghgs) and other climate change forcings, such as aerosols and changes in albedo (22). the exceptions are some agricultural practices, such as certain agroforestry systems, that can have a net carbon sequestration effect, especially if used to restore degraded land. ghg emissions vary markedly across the different activities of the food chain at the global level table 1 ), but there are important differences in this pattern among countries. in high-income countries, the postproduction stages tend to have a greater role, while in other countries, specific economic subsectors are important, such as the united kingdom, or to do with countryspecific economic subsectors, such as the high contribution from fertilizer manufacture in china figure 1 ). adding the figures across the aggregate global food chain, and assuming a growth in emissions of 3% per year, gives the total global ghg emissions for the year 2008 in the range of 9,800 to 16,900 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (mtco2e) from the food system, inclusive of indirect emissions associated with land-cover change. thus, the food system contributes 19%-29% of total global anthropogenic ghg emissions (using data for nonfood sectors from reference 23). of this, agricultural production contributes 80%-86% at the global level, noting the major differences among countries figure 1 ), while the remainder comes from preproduction (predominantly fertilizer manufacture) and the postproduction activities of processing, packaging, refrigeration, transport, retail, catering, domestic food management, and waste disposal (landfills). the caveat
Where can I find the details of the attributes?
for details of the attributes see merz and bloschl [2009b
What symbol is used to define the univariate correlation?
for the univariate correlations the sign of the correlation coefficient r is indicated
How do I detect significant correlation rates?
correlations that are significant at the 95% level are printed in bold
correlations that are significant at the 95% level are printed in bold. for the univariate correlations the sign of the correlation coefficient r is indicated. catchment attributes: log area: log of the catchment area (km2); rnd: river network density (-); map: mean annual precipitation (mm); slope: mean topographic slope [-]; podsol: percent of podsol soil type; tertiary: percent of tertiary geology; flysch, marl: percent of flysch and marl geology; phyllite, schist: percent of phyllite and schist geology; crop land: percent of crop land; forest (conif.): percent of coniferous forest in the catchment area. for details of the attributes see merz and bloschl [2009b].
Which country prevent the Climate change mitigation?
given that the world has failed to reach a legally binding multilateral framework for climate change mitigation, the unilateral implementation of the cprs in australia is not expected to make any significant contribution to preventing climate change
Which one is emitted Australia explain?
in 2007, australia emitted a total of 597 million tonnes of carbon dioxide (co2) equivalent into the earth's biosphere (department of climate change and energy efficiency 2010
Explain free-ride
ghg emissions in the global context, australia's participation in the global climate change mitigation effort can be viewed as a way of 3 3 showing that the country is not seeking a 'free-ride' (department of climate change and energy efficiency 2008
given that the world has failed to reach a legally binding multilateral framework for climate change mitigation, the unilateral implementation of the cprs in australia is not expected to make any significant contribution to preventing climate change. although australia's per capita ghg emissions are the highest among the developed nations (garnaut 2008), the total pollution contribution of the country in the global context is relatively low. in 2007, australia emitted a total of 597 million tonnes of carbon dioxide (co2) equivalent into the earth's biosphere (department of climate change and energy efficiency 2010). this is less than two percent of total world emissions. given this relatively low level of ghg emissions in the global context, australia's participation in the global climate change mitigation effort can be viewed as a way of 3 3 showing that the country is not seeking a 'free-ride' (department of climate change and energy efficiency 2008).
What is argued about in regards to industrialized countries?
an argument is often made that industrialized countries should provide financing for adaptation as a compensation for the damages that they impose on developing countries through their past emissions
What do poverty constraints mean for developing countries?
developing countries may be unable, budget-wise, to finance all the anticipative adaptation measures that are cost-effective for them
Who is providing bilateral or multilateral development assistance?
some investments in developing countries are already supported in part by foreign governments through bilateral or multilateral development assistance
poverty/budget constraints developing countries may be unable, budget-wise, to finance all the anticipative adaptation measures that are cost-effective for them. adaptation related to development aid some investments in developing countries are already supported in part by foreign governments through bilateral or multilateral development assistance. analyzing the vulnerability of internationally supported projects and programs --both existing and planned ones, and especially those involving long-lived, fixed capital stock--to climate change, and providing corrections whenever appropriate is critical for multilateral, bilateral and non-governmental aid providers (e.g., afd, 2005). compensation for past emissions by developed countries an argument is often made that industrialized countries should provide financing for adaptation as a compensation for the damages that they impose on developing countries through their past emissions. this is a very controversial issue that would warrant a full analysis by itself. we simply note here that compensations for past emissions are difficult to assess in an economic analysis because the
What animal transmited dengue amongst wild monkeys?
aedes mosquitoes transmit dengue virus among wild monkeys
What is the cause of Dengue?
dengue is caused by any of four closely related viruses
What are the symptoms of Dengue?
illness usually begins with a sudden onset of fever and can include a variety of other signs and symptoms such as intense headache, severe pain behind the eyes, pains of the muscles and joints, nausea, vomiting, and a skin rash
dengue fever is a viral disease closely related to yellow fever 164 ). as with yellow fever, forest-dwelling aedes mosquitoes transmit dengue virus among wild monkeys, and peridomestic species, particularly ae. aegypti, are responsible for interhuman transmission in villages and urban areas. thus, many of the factors that influence transmission of yellow fever have a similar significance for dengue. dengue is caused by any of four closely related viruses. illness usually begins with a sudden onset of fever and can include a variety of other signs and symptoms such as intense headache, severe pain behind the eyes, pains of the muscles and joints, nausea, vomiting, and a skin rash. most dengue infections are self-limiting, but a small portion develop into a more serious illness--dengue hemorrhagic fever/dengue shock syndrome (dhf/dss)--characterized by spontaneous hemorrhage, increased permeability of the blood vessels and a condition known as physiologic shock. fatality rates in untreated dhf/dss can be as high as 50%. the incidence and geographic distribution of dengue have increased dramatically in recent decades: more than half the world's population now lives in areas at risk of infection 165 ). at present, no vaccine is available.
What in theory do resistant strategies attempt to do?
in theory resistant strategies attempt to bolster a system's defenses to rapid environmental change, while resilience strategies attempt to bolster a system's ability to absorb rapid environmental change
What has been done to protect historical species?
intensive management actions to protect historical species in their current distributions are widely advocated (rank 4
What is a possible negative outcome when removing invasive species?
the removal of invasive species has sometimes resulted in unpredicted and negative impacts to ecosystem structure
a first step for managers will be to wrestle with the question of whether and when they will attempt to resist biotic change, such as by adding irrigation if precipitation declines, rather than try to build resilience to change, such as by facilitating population adaptive capacity through of a wider range of genotypes. in theory resistant strategies attempt to bolster a system's defenses to rapid environmental change, while resilience strategies attempt to bolster a system's ability to absorb rapid environmental change. more recommendations advocate resilience than resistance strategies fig. 4 d). however, intensive management actions to protect historical species in their current distributions are widely advocated (rank 4). the latter align best with a fixed-reserve approach focusing on local species precedence, an approach that will be increasingly costly and challenging to maintain as directional global changes accelerate. for some species and systems, options other than intervention might not exist. resistance approaches designed to maintain the status quo are nevertheless risky - they may leave systems vulnerable to total collapse if interventions are not maintained or compromise other system components harris et al., 2006; walker et al., 2002 ). for example, the removal of invasive species has sometimes resulted in unpredicted and negative impacts to ecosystem structure and
what do Physical processes enable us to understand?
by understanding the physical processes involved we can describe the causal connections intuitively in the graphical form shown in fig. 1a
Is there any additional value of knowing if the match touched sandpaper?
in other words, if we want to make a prediction for whether the match is on fire, and we already know the temperature of the match head, we do not gain any additional information by knowing whether the match recently touched the sand paper
Is the random variable fire dependent or independent of SPaper?
in probabilistic terms we say that random variable fire is conditionally independent of spaper given temp
by understanding the physical processes involved we can describe the causal connections intuitively in the graphical form shown in fig. 1a. note that fig. 1a shows arrows from spaper to temp and from temp to fire. however, there is no edge between spaper and fire because the cause-effect relationship between spaper and fire always goes through the variable temp. in other words, if we want to make a prediction for whether the match is on fire, and we already know the temperature of the match head, we do not gain any additional information by knowing whether the match recently touched the sand paper. in essence the variable temp blocks the information flow from spaper to fire. in probabilistic terms we say that random variable fire is conditionally independent of spaper given temp.
What can the Ugency do?
stopping things from happening
What are they trying to block?
block state efforts to require calorie labeling on restaurant menus
a number of implications result from the discussion above. some of these break down into broad questions about what might be done to prevent obesity and others about how potentially useful approaches can be adopted widely. only recently has what to do been considered, and still relatively little has been decided. even less has been decided about how to make things happen the urgency is even greater given the powerful forces that are stopping things from happening, exemplified by the highly funded and orchestrated effort of the national restaurant association to block state efforts to require calorie labeling on restaurant menus.
What is a key assumption underlying current probabilistic techniques?
a key assumption underlying current probabilistic techniques is that the distribution of floods is regarded as stationary
What do the proposed alternative probabilistic techniques allow for?
a number of researchers have proposed alternative probabilistic techniques that allow for nonstationarity in flood event distributions
What particularly introduced uncertainties associated with the most common adaptation approach?
there are many uncertainties associated with such an approach, particularly those introduced by the limited abilities of climate models to sufficiently portray hydrometeorological extremes within climate projections
properly evaluating future flood risk within a changing climate remains a goal of water-management decisionmakers. changes in temperature and precipitation would conceptually affect the characterization of flood-frequency distributions in a given region. the previous section discussed how instrumental records serve as the primary source of information to characterize flood risk. a key assumption underlying current probabilistic techniques is that the distribution of floods is regarded as stationary (chap. 1). a number of researchers have proposed alternative probabilistic techniques that allow for nonstationarity in flood event distributions. the most common adaptation approach is to allow the parameters of an assumed distribution to vary with time; nonparametric techniques have also been proposed. in general, additional research is required to establish the most suitable methods for treating nonstationarity in flood-risk evaluations for the united states. an alternative is that flood risk be evaluated using a more limited set of recent observations, but extrapolating the probability of infrequent events from a short record is fraught with uncertainty. furthermore, for long-term evaluations of flood risk, it might be questioned whether any of the instrumental record can be used to portray future flood risk. to that end, the climate projection information discussed earlier (sec. 3.1.3) might be surveyed for temperature and precipitation conditions relevant to flood-event estimation. however, if such an approach is pursued, careful examination of the relation between flood mechanisms and the reliability of the climate models to portray these mechanisms is warranted. for probabilistic methods, the same hydrologic simulation techniques used to characterize water-supply assumptions under climate change (section 3.1.3) might be used to produce floodevent information. for example, simulated hydrologic projections consistent with climate projections might be surveyed for annual series of maximum flood events (or other hydrologic extremes of interests). such information might be generated relative to an ensemble of climate projections to incorporate projection uncertainty into the estimation of projected floodfrequency distributions, evolving through time.7 there are many uncertainties associated with such an approach, particularly those introduced by the limited abilities of climate models to sufficiently portray hydrometeorological extremes within climate projections (intergovernmental panel on climate change,
What is Abyss Mellifera?
apis mellifera is a species that has shown great adaptive capacity, as it is found almost everywhere in the world and in highly diverse climates
Describe the genetic variation?
imported to the americas by the colonists, it has co-evolved with humans and has spread throughout the continent, from north to south. it may be assumed that, as the species has great biodiversity, it will be able to use its genetic variability (6) to adapt to climate change. in contrast, the asian species have remained in asia, which might indicate lesser adaptability to different environments and fragility in the face of climate change
apis mellifera is a species that has shown great adaptive capacity, as it is found almost everywhere in the world and in highly diverse climates. imported to the americas by the colonists, it has co-evolved with humans and has spread throughout the continent, from north to south. it may be assumed that, as the species has great biodiversity, it will be able to use its genetic variability (6) to adapt to climate change. in contrast, the asian species have remained in asia, which might indicate lesser adaptability to different environments and fragility in the face of climate change. apis mellifera seems to have more adaptive potential than its asian cousins, which have low yields and have been subject to little transhumance. humans, with whom apis mellifera has co-evolved for several centuries, will certainly be decisive in helping honey bees to survive in hostile environments and in preserving the biodiversity of these species. beekeeping is an essential pollination and production support tool in this respect. however, if bee ecotypes are no longer suited to their biotopes, feral colonies will need to evolve rapidly to survive without human assistance.
In which areas more research is needed into the adaptation strategies of women in the face of existing climate change impacts?
more research is needed into the adaptation strategies of women in the face of existing climate change impacts on agricultural productivity and food security
According to the paragraph, what are the barriers to women's access needed to manifest in a different context?
new technologies, extension services and credit facilities
more research is needed into the adaptation strategies of women in the face of existing climate change impacts on agricultural productivity and food security, including how these are manifested in different contexts. what are the barriers to women's access to new technologies, extension services and credit facilities? what aspects of their own agricultural knowledge have been overlooked and could contribute to effective adaptation? what are women already doing and what do they identify as their needs and priorities? future adaptation and/or agriculture policies should explicitly draw on these insights and seek to better support these existing strategies. (see the later section on adaptation for more detailed discussion).
Explain What is illustrated in a Fig.5 and Fig 2?
in fig. 5 it shows that in the north atlantic, there is a large increase in evaporation in the pliocssimulation, relative to the plioos. it is likely that this is associated with the increased temperatures in this region (fig. 2 ). there is a corresponding decrease in evaporation in the south atlantic
What kind of process is shown in a FIG 6?
a change in the surface salinity, shown in fig. 6 a. unsurprisingly, this is strongly correlated with the change in evaporation, in particular in the north atlantic. in the mid ocean (450 m depth, fig. 6 b), there is a similar change in salinity as at the surface, but it is more diffuse, and there is a strong local signal in the caribbean region
Explain, what occurred in the FIG 7 and FIG 8?
figure 7 shows the ocean surface velocity in the panama region in the plioossimulation. the surface flow through the strait is dominated by the surface winds, in particular the trade wind easterlies. figure 8 shows the vertical structure of the flow through the seaway. in the zonal direction, the surface winds influence the flow down to the bottom of the seaway
this is illustrated in fig. 5 it shows that in the north atlantic, there is a large increase in evaporation in the pliocssimulation, relative to the plioos. it is likely that this is associated with the increased temperatures in this region (fig. 2 ). there is a corresponding decrease in evaporation in the south atlantic. this leads to a change in the surface salinity, shown in fig. 6 a. unsurprisingly, this is strongly correlated with the change in evaporation, in particular in the north atlantic. in the mid ocean (450 m depth, fig. 6 b), there is a similar change in salinity as at the surface, but it is more diffuse, and there is a strong local signal in the caribbean region. this local signal is directly related to the closure of the seaway, and the local changes in ocean circulation which subsequently occur. figure 7 shows the ocean surface velocity in the panama region in the plioossimulation. the surface flow through the strait is dominated by the surface winds, in particular the trade wind easterlies. figure 8 shows the vertical structure of the flow through the seaway. in the zonal direction, the surface winds influence the flow down to the bottom of the seaway,
How many climatic variables were used to calculate The sPCA
the spca was calculated using three climatic variables: average temperature, daily temperature range and precipitation (pca matrix available as table s1
Why were the other two climatic variables NOT included in this analysis?
the other two climatic variables were not included in this analysis because they were highly correlated with the other variables used (correlation matrix values higher than 0.9 between relative humidity and precipitation and between minimum temperature and daily temperature range) and explained less of the variation than the input variables with which they were correlated
How many species can be grouped in the Boreal biogeographic zone?
we can group four species in the boreal biogeographic zone
the spca was calculated using three climatic variables: average temperature, daily temperature range and precipitation (pca matrix available as table s1). the other two climatic variables were not included in this analysis because they were highly correlated with the other variables used (correlation matrix values higher than 0.9 between relative humidity and precipitation and between minimum temperature and daily temperature range) and explained less of the variation than the input variables with which they were correlated. we produced a map (available as fig. s1) that combined two spca components (with 93.67% of cumulated variance explained, first axis score 5 1.8 and second axis score 5 1.01). a pca was then plotted for the 28 bat species under study by intercepting each species' distribution with the spca axes (fig. 1). in this plot we can distinguish the three biogeographic groups that can be linked to the bioclimatic regions identified in the spca map (available as supplementary data s.1). we can group four species in the boreal biogeographic zone, 10 in the temperate humid zone (hereafter called temperate) and 14 in the mediterranean (fig. 1).
in which seasons are the higher latitude storms of cluster 1 proportionally more prevalent?
are proportionally more prevalent during the early and late parts of the hurricane season
Are cluster 2 storms in the Gulf of Mexico the most prevalent during the May-July period?
during may-july cluster 2 storms in the gulf of mexico are the most prevalent, while during october-december cluster 1 storms occur most frequently
in which months do cluster 3 storms occur mainly?
cluster 3 storms are observed mostly during the peak months of the hurricane season (august-september) and their distribution has a large degree of kurtosis
the seasonality of cluster membership is shown in fig. 3. as expected (e.g., davis and bosart 2003; mctaggart-cowan et al. 2008), the higher-latitude storms of cluster 1 are proportionally more prevalent during the early and late parts of the hurricane season. during these periods, thermodynamic conditions in the tropics are generally less favorable for cyclogenesis, but higher-latitude conditions are favorable for baroclinic initiation of storms that can subsequently transition to warm-core tropical cyclones. during may-july cluster 2 storms in the gulf of mexico are the most prevalent, while during october-december cluster 1 storms occur most frequently. initiation of cluster 2 storms in the gulf of mexico can often be traced to ''sagging fronts,'' a colloquial term sometimes used by forecasters to describe midlatitude frontal systems that deviate southward into the gulf and provide the baroclinic conditions that are favorable for cyclogenesis (see also bracken and bosart 2000). these events are more common in boreal spring and a secondary local maximum in frequency of occurrence of cluster 2 storms is observed in june. cluster 3 storms are observed mostly during the peak months of the hurricane season (august-september) and their distribution has a large degree of kurtosis; that is, they occur mostly within a narrow time period.
What doe we expect PSC will foster growth in?
task level resources
Why do we expect that individuals in more positive PSC contexts will experience increased resources
a management style supportive of psychological well-being would give workers control over work timing and methods, and the freedom to develop new skills
Why do we also expect that job resources will be positively related to work engagement
a management style supportive of psychological well-being would give workers control over work timing and methods, and the freedom to develop new skills
psc could also trigger the motivational pathway, posited by the jd-r model. as an organizational resource, and in line with sauter et al. (2002), we expect that psc will foster growth in other resources, including task level resources. as noted, senior managers play a significant role in setting the tone of the organizational climate, establishing priorities, and allocating resources (flin, mearns, o'connor, bryden, 2000). a management style supportive of psychological well-being would give workers control over work timing and methods, and the freedom to develop new skills (brown leigh, 1996). therefore, we expect that individuals in more positive psc contexts will experience increased resources (e.g., job control) over time. in turn, we also expect that job resources will be positively related to work engagement. according to social exchange theory workers who perceive that the
What is called the "Ramsey Equation"?
optimizing the social welfare function with a constant population and a optimizing the social welfare function with a constant population and a constant rate of growth of consumption per generation, g* yields the standard equation for the relationship between the equilibrium real return on capital, and the other parameters, r* g r a r we call this the "ramsey equation
"Ramsey Equation" is embraced by the Review as what?
we call this the "ramsey equation," which is embraced by the review as the organizing concept for thinking about intertemporal choices for policies for global warming
According to "Ramsey Equation", how is the rate of return on capital is determined?
the ramsey equation shows that in a welfare optimum, the rate of return on capital is determined by the generational rate of time preference, the extent to which social policies have aversion to consumption inequality among generations, and the rate of growth of generational consumption
optimizing the social welfare function with a constant population and a optimizing the social welfare function with a constant population and a constant rate of growth of consumption per generation, g* yields the standard equation for the relationship between the equilibrium real return on capital, and the other parameters, r* g r a r we call this the "ramsey equation," which is embraced by the review as the organizing concept for thinking about intertemporal choices for policies for global warming. the ramsey equation shows that in a welfare optimum, the rate of return on capital is determined by the generational rate of time preference, the extent to which social policies have aversion to consumption inequality among generations, and the rate of growth of generational consumption. in a growing economy, a high return to capital can arise either from a high time discount rate or high aversion to generational inequality.
How was the evaluation of the Review built? It was built in 3 lines of investigation
consequently the review's assessment was built on three lines of investigation
What is the simplest comparison to be made? Is between our disaggregated analysis of the physical impacts of climate change in multiple dimensions
the simplest and most important comparison to be made is between our disaggregated analysis of the physical impacts of climate change on multiple dimensions
What is the main question that policymakers should ask? is whether it is worth paying an insurance premium equal to the mitigation cost for a given path to stabilize atmospheric GHG concentrations
the key question that policymakers should ask is whether paying an insurance premium equal to the cost of mitigation for a given path to stabilise atmospheric ghg concentrations is worthwhile to reduce the risks and uncertainties described under bau
consequently the review's assessment was built on three lines of investigation. the simplest and most important comparison to be made is between our disaggregated analysis of the physical impacts of climate change on multiple dimensions (e.g. water and food availability, health and infrastructure: chapters 1, 3, 4 and 5), and 'bottom-up' estimates of the costs of specific mitigation strategies, based on different portfolios of technologies (chapter 9 and anderson, 2006). the key question that policymakers should ask is whether paying an insurance premium equal to the cost of mitigation for a given path to stabilise atmospheric ghg concentrations is worthwhile to reduce the risks and uncertainties described under bau. this question is central, because it presents the basic policy problem as simply and transparently as possible, thereby avoiding the process of aggregating risks and uncertainties across
What did a recent FAO report, Livestock's Long Shadow, focus on?
the effects of livestock on the environment
What does the "long shadow" refer to?
the negative effects of livestock production and marketing chains on almost all aspects of the environment
What are livestock particularly important for?
increasing the resilience of vulnerable poor people, subject to climatic, market and disease shocks through diversifying risk and increasing assets
the relationships between livestock populations and the environment are complex and appear to be viewed very differently from mainstream developed and developing country perspectives. a recent fao report, livestock's long shadow, focused on the effects of livestock on the environment (steinfeld et al., 2006). the "long shadow" refers to the negative effects of livestock production and marketing chains on almost all aspects of the environment; livestock production is associated with carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide emissions, water depletion and soil erosion as key examples. the climate change impacts of livestock production (calculated in steinfeld et al. (2006) at 18% of the total global greenhouse gas emissions from human sources) have been widely highlighted, particularly those associated with rapidly expanding industrial livestock operations in asia. yet, in smallholder crop-livestock and agro-pastoral and pastoral livestock systems, livestock are one of a limited number of broad-based options to increase incomes and sustain the livelihoods of an estimated 1 billion people, who have a limited environmental footprint. livestock are particularly important for increasing the resilience of vulnerable poor people, subject to climatic, market and disease shocks through diversifying risk and increasing assets. given that almost all human activity is associated with ghg emissions, those from livestock in these systems are relatively modest when compared to the contribution that livestock make to the livelihoods of this huge number of people. this complex balancing act of resource use, ghg emissions and livelihoods is almost certain to get more rather than less complicated. the demand for energy supply through biofuels is yet another factor that will put increasing pressure on the natural resource base and the balance between different natural resource uses, initially, especially in mixed crop-livestock systems.
What is a major problem in range shift studies?
a major problem for range-shift studies is determining the difference between true absences of species at a site and false absences that result from missed detection or historical records restricted to few species (tingley beissinger, 2009
why is historical data important?
historical data are valuable and should not be discarded because they pose challenges to analysis. indeed, appropriate statistical approaches can assist with the integration of old and contemporary data
what is the review of Tingley Beissinger (2009) ?
tingley beissinger (2009) review approaches for comparisons of historical and contemporary data in range shift studies. in particular
baselines for assessing climate impacts for data-poor regions or taxa can be obtained by conducting surveys in sites where historical data are available and comparisons can be made between present and historical data. while most studies in our database were based on regularly collected samples, samples collected at irregular intervals or those comparing two distinct periods in time were also common (fig. 3d). data collection designs that pre-date the advent of modern statistical approaches pose challenges to comparisons with contemporary data sets (tingley beissinger, 2009). differences in survey methods between past and present programs may confound biological responses to climate change. similarly, a major problem for range-shift studies is determining the difference between true absences of species at a site and false absences that result from missed detection or historical records restricted to few species (tingley beissinger, 2009). nevertheless, historical data are valuable and should not be discarded because they pose challenges to analysis. indeed, appropriate statistical approaches can assist with the integration of old and contemporary data. often, careful consideration of changes in data collection methodology can identify biases that can then be factored out in analysis, for instance, by comparing changes in relative rather than absolute abundances of species (fodrie et al. 2010). tingley beissinger (2009) review approaches for comparisons of historical and contemporary data in range shift studies. in particular,
Where should municipalities NOT be allowed to build to alleviate flood property damage concerns?
allow building in scenic waterfront lands as well as less expensive marginal areas prone to flooding
What city is referenced in the text?
ontario
What were an increasing number of citizens becoming alarmed at?
that local decision makers were only protecting the interests of a few homeowners, but were not protecting public interests in water quality and quantity
a major cause for the concern about protection of life and property from damage due to flooding has been and still is, a tendency for municipalities to allow building in scenic waterfront lands as well as less expensive marginal areas prone to flooding. remedial and protective measures inevitably consisted of both structural (dams, dykes, groins, etc.) and non-structural (forecasting, zoning, planning, etc.) actions at great costs and with little benefit generally (lawrence et al., 1993; philippi, 1997; whipple, 2001). an increasing number of citizens became alarmed as well that local decision makers were only protecting the interests of a few homeowners, but were not protecting public interests in water quality and quantity. all levels of government were forced to take action resulting, in ontario for example, in responsibility for managing and monitoring various water uses being distributed among a great number of federal, provincial and municipal agencies or departments (lawrence et al., 1993). each agency developed its own policies and regulations according to the quality and quantity of water that each water use required. jurisdictional roles for the management of water-related issues often overlapped. conflicts inevitably arose (whipple, 2001). it consequently became increasingly necessary to
Which independent research and policy communities have been actively engaged in reducing socio-economic vulnerability to natural hazards?
over the past few decades, four distinct and largely independent research and policy communities--disaster risk reduction, climate change adaptation, environmental management and poverty reduction--have been actively engaged in reducing socio-economic vulnerability to natural hazards
What has been the results of the efforts of these communities?
however, despite the significant efforts of these communities, the vulnerability of many individuals and communities to natural hazards continues to increase considerably
What need to be done to improve these communities?
arising from the realisation that these four communities have been largely working in isolation and enjoyed only limited success in reducing vulnerability, there is an emerging perceived need to strengthen significantly collaboration and to facilitate learning and information exchange between them
over the past few decades, four distinct and largely independent research and policy communities--disaster risk reduction, climate change adaptation, environmental management and poverty reduction--have been actively engaged in reducing socio-economic vulnerability to natural hazards. however, despite the significant efforts of these communities, the vulnerability of many individuals and communities to natural hazards continues to increase considerably. in particular, it is hydrometeorological hazards that affect an increasing number of people and cause increasingly large economic losses. arising from the realisation that these four communities have been largely working in isolation and enjoyed only limited success in reducing vulnerability, there is an emerging perceived need to strengthen significantly collaboration and to facilitate learning and information exchange between them. this article examines key communalities and differences between the climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction communities, and proposes three exercises that would help to structure a multi-community dialogue and learning process.
Who has the legislative power to bring fast and radical change?
government who alone have the legislative power
What will happen with government efforts otherwise?
government efforts will be bypassed and ignored rather than complied with and achieved
Who must see this change?
individuals and corporations, architects and engineers
this change must start with government who alone have the legislative power to bring about fast and radical change (as they did during the second world war). <s121>* it must be seen by everyone - individuals and corporations, architects and engineers - as necessary otherwise government efforts will be bypassed and ignored rather than complied with and achieved. <s121>* in order for this to happen it must be also be seen as fair (like rationing during the war) or people will not cooperate. in this process the building industry is centrally placed and all the players have their parts to play. table 15.2 makes some suggestions for actions which each of the players could make. the time has come to act.
Why water temperature in estuaries and coastal seas is closely linked to air temperature?
because estuaries and coastal seas are often shallow and have limited exchange with the open ocean
What is the average rate of warming of the Baltic Sea?
the baltic sea has been warming at an average rate of 0.03 deg c per year since 1985
What is the average rate of warming of the Chesapeake Bay?
the chesapeake bay has been warming by approximately 0.03 deg c per year since the 1960s
because estuaries and coastal seas are often shallow and have limited exchange with the open ocean, their water temperatures are closely linked to air temperature and therefore have the potential to be more responsive to climate warming than the open ocean. this is apparent in spatial comparisons between estuaries and adjacent ocean waters such as rio de la plata estuary in argentina, where summer surface water temperatures are 4 deg c warmer than the nearby ocean (simionato et al. 2010). the accelerated warming of coastal seas and estuaries is apparent in temporal trends (fig. 5). for example, the baltic sea has been warming at an average rate of 0.03 deg c per year since 1985, with a much more extreme rate of summer warming (0.09 deg c per year), or 6 - 13 times the recent increase in global air temperature (mackenzie schiedek, 2007; ipcc, 2013). similarly, the chesapeake bay has been warming by approximately 0.03 deg c per year since the 1960s (najjar et al. 2010). increased temperatures of coastal waters expected with atmospheric climate warming will be associated with a host of temperature-dependent effects on hypoxia.
What is the redox reaction of anaerobic conditions?
anaerobic conditions: acetotrophic methanogenesis ch3cooh -------------> ch4 co2
What is a function of the electron acceptor and oxidation state of the compounds?
the sequence of transformations that occurs in sewage treatment is a function of the electron acceptor and the oxidation state of the compounds, measured by its oxidation-reduction potential (expressed in millivolts
anaerobic conditions: acetotrophic methanogenesis ch3cooh -------------> ch4 co2 (7.5) figure 7.2 illustrates the main routes of organic matter decomposition in the presence of different electron acceptors. the sequence of transformations that occurs in sewage treatment is a function of the electron acceptor and the oxidation state of the compounds, measured by its oxidation-reduction potential (expressed in millivolts). figure 7.3 illustrates these reactions. the oxidation state of the compound determines the maximum quantity of energy available through it. the more reduced the compound, the more energy it contains. the objective of the energetic metabolism is to conserve as much energy as possible in a form available for a cell. the maximum energy available from the oxidation of a substrate is the difference between its energetic content (given by the oxidation state) and the energetic content of the final products of the reaction (also given by their oxidation state at the end of the reaction) (grady and lim, 1980). microbiology and ecology of wastewater treatment 305
Habitat specialist are affected by?
in some cases, habitat specialists may be affected by habitat changes
Mention one difficult problem in this study
unfortunately, identifying more highly resolved climatic niche boundaries and estimating range shifts from spatial data are inherently difficult problems
What does the result in this study suggest?
our results suggest that the impact of climate-change induced land-cover changes on range sizes in birds will likely be considerable
the evaluation we have made of species' exposure to climate change is based on changes in land cover and relies on the well established dependence of land cover on climatic conditions. our evaluation is transparent and avoids many of the potential conceptual and methodological pitfalls inherent in more complex approaches. but the approach presented here makes some important assumptions: we assume that birds exhibit persistent habitat associations and are limited in their dispersal. in some cases, habitat specialists may be affected by habitat changes finer than those registered by the available land-cover categorization, which would cause us to underestimate climate change impacts for these species. conversely, range shifts may alleviate the projected impact of climate change 2 28 29 (and thus increase the relative importance of other threats). this would cause us to overestimate the impact of climate change except for high-altitude species, which face limited area available for dispersal 30 ]. similar responses might also mitigate the impact of human land-use change (but given the geographic separation of impacts, this effect is likely to be small). unfortunately, identifying more highly resolved climatic niche boundaries and estimating range shifts from spatial data are inherently difficult problems. similarly, more detailed modeling of extinction risk would require us to make critical assumptions about ecological interactions between species, crucial niche components, and changes in potential habitat barriers. even though notable progress has been made, there is still a lack of general consensus on which of the available modeling approaches provides the best insights given the data limitations for most tropical species 31 32 ]. furthermore, more detailed models of interactions between climate and land-use change should ideally consider other threats such as infectious diseases, species invasions, and increased persecution which are likely to additionally impact the loss of populations. on a more optimistic note, species currently recognized as specialists may adapt to new habitats including those created under some forms of human encroachment 33 34 ]. habitats such as regrowth forests, which our analysis counted as lost to primary forest species, may in fact be able to support at least some of the original species pool 35 ]. similarly, while refined range maps were used in this analysis, not all parts of the current and projected range will be fully occupied; this will inevitably result in an underestimation of the impact of environmental change for a significant proportion of species, particularly those with specialized niches and heterogeneous distributions across their current geographic range. we acknowledge that further understanding and modeling of these issues is crucially important for accurate predictions at a fine scale. there clearly is need for further broad-scale studies that develop individual species models while exploring the sensitivity of results to assumptions and methods. complementary progress will come from detailed studies limited to focal regions and few taxa that carefully estimate as many factors as possible potentially driving range shifts, contractions, and adaptations. however, given the detailed information required for such analyses, these studies are unlikely to provide timely advice to decision-makers who must grapple with the issues of climate change and anthropogenic habitat loss now. further broad-scale work is needed to explicitly model loss of habitat along elevational gradients, assess threats to long-distance migrants 36 ], and to additionally take into account the global reserve network that may successfully protect against land-use but not climate change impacts. this study is the first one to our knowledge to investigate exposure to climate change for a full, species-rich clade across the whole world and the first one to concomitantly evaluate the effects of direct land-use change. our results show notable differences to previous studies [e.g. 15 ]; this may be due to their assessment of only climate change, methodological differences, and the restriction of the majority of these studies to mostly temperate species (which are projected to experience highest temperature changes). our results suggest that the impact of climate-change induced land-cover changes on range sizes in birds will likely be considerable. however, habitat loss in economically emerging tropical countries will continue to pose an even more direct and immediate threat to a greater number of bird species. although the geography, magnitude, and type of impact will depend critically on the socioeconomic pathways different nations choose to follow, even the most optimistic scenarios lead to substantial range contractions of species, especially of those already vulnerable to extinction because of their current restricted ranges. only by rapidly expanding the network of protected areas in the tropics can we hope to prevent hundreds of species from becoming imperiled or even extinct. the scenarios that proactively acknowledge that the natural environment provides crucial services to the human economy seem likely to conserve both a higher quality of life for the human population and a higher diversity of species.
Explain KNUTTI ET AL. MODEL PROJECTION WEIGHTING SCHEME?
knutti et al. model projection weighting scheme 1913 thus suggests that part of the recent rapid arctic warming and observed decrease in sea ice may be due to natural variability kay et al ., 2011; swart et al ., 2015; screen and francis 2016
Describe about calibrating models?
only on the observed sea ice trend (figure 1c, brown points, case 3), may overestimate the forced trend in this case (or underestimate it if natural variability had damped the forced response) and be unreliable. such perfect model setups can be used to test the skill of the method, fl ag over fi tting to natural variability or certain data sets, and quantities such as those in figure 3 can help guiding the choice of parameters and metrics (in particular, sd and ss in this case
Is that observation provide useful constraint?
such tests will also fl ag cases where the observations do not provide a useful constraint on the projection (which is often the case), and the method would then give similar weights to most models
knutti et al. model projection weighting scheme 1913 thus suggests that part of the recent rapid arctic warming and observed decrease in sea ice may be due to natural variability kay et al ., 2011; swart et al ., 2015; screen and francis 2016]. simply extrapolating past trends or calibrating models on a too narrow metric, e.g., only on the observed sea ice trend (figure 1c, brown points, case 3), may overestimate the forced trend in this case (or underestimate it if natural variability had damped the forced response) and be unreliable. such perfect model setups can be used to test the skill of the method, fl ag over fi tting to natural variability or certain data sets, and quantities such as those in figure 3 can help guiding the choice of parameters and metrics (in particular, sd and ss in this case). such tests will also fl ag cases where the observations do not provide a useful constraint on the projection (which is often the case), and the method would then give similar weights to most models. remaining questions are whether the choice of parameters or metrics should be
Define the effect of climate change on plant disease?
research in the effects of climate change on plant disease continues to be limited, but some striking progress has been made
Describe about genomic level?
at the genomic level, advances in technologies for the high-throughput analysis of gene expression have made it possible to begin discriminating responses to different biotic and abiotic stressors and potential trade-offs in responses
How to begin synthesizing the effects of climate variables?
at the scale of the individual plant, enough experiments have been performed to begin synthesizing the effects of climate variables on infection rates, though pathosystemspecific characteristics make synthesis challenging
research in the effects of climate change on plant disease continues to be limited, but some striking progress has been made. at the genomic level, advances in technologies for the high-throughput analysis of gene expression have made it possible to begin discriminating responses to different biotic and abiotic stressors and potential trade-offs in responses. at the scale of the individual plant, enough experiments have been performed to begin synthesizing the effects of climate variables on infection rates, though pathosystemspecific characteristics make synthesis challenging. models of plant disease have now been developed to incorporate more sophisticated climate predictions. at the population level, the adaptive potential of plant and pathogen populations may prove to be one of the most important predictors of the magnitude of climate change effects. ecosystem ecologists are now addressing the role of plant disease in ecosystem processes and the challenge of scaling up from individual infection probabilities to epidemics and broader impacts.
What colors represent a positive correlation?
warm red/orange shades indicate positive correlation
What colors represent a negative correlation?
cool blue/purple shades indicate negative correlation
correlation coefficients between monitored mean air concentration (pg m- 3) of a -hch at the zeppelin station and gridded mean sat and ice cover across the arctic, and canmetop modelled air-water exchange flux (ng m- 2) of a -hch. a spatial-correlation map showing gridded correlation coefficients at 1*x 1*latitude/longitude between detrended a -hch air concentrations at the zeppelin station and gridded mean sat at 1*x 1*latitude/longitude in the summers from 2000 to 2009 (warm red/orange shades indicate positive correlation). b the same as a but for correlations between detrended a -hch air concentrations at the zeppelin station and gridded ice cover (cool blue/purple shades indicate negative correlation). the sat and ice-cover data used in a and b were collected from the national oceanic and atmospheric administration's national centers for environmental prediction/department of energy reanalysis 2 (ref. 31). c canmetop modelled anomaly of a -hch air-water exchange fluxes (ng m- 2) in 2007 across the arctic ocean. fluxes were calculated by subtracting the fluxes modelled using summer meteorology and ice cover averaged over 1969-2003 from the fluxes modelled using daily summer meteorology and ice cover in 2007.
Validation efficiency criteria Several criteria were used for ?
evaluation of model performance in validation
n (1) where qobs ,i and qsim ,i are the observed and simulated streamflows at time step i and n is the total number of observations. rmsesqrt can be considered a multi-purpose criterion focusing on the simulated hydrograph. it puts less weight on high flows than the standard rmse (on nontransformed discharge) (chiew and mcmahon, 1994; oudin et al., 2006a,b). 2.4.2 efficiency criteria in validation several criteria were used for the evaluation of model performance in validation. the first one is the nash-sutcliffe efficiency criterion (nash and sutcliffe, 1970), calculated on root-squared transformed streamflows for the same reason: nsesqrt 1 -
For interdecadal variability, what the slow ocean provides?
the slow ocean dynamics provides the leading candidate mechanism for the oscillation
If interdecadal climate variability is usually of basin scale, for what ocean dynamics are usually?
ocean dynamics are usually thought to involve large-scale baroclinic rossby waves in the extratropics
What the extratropical synoptic oceanic Rossby waves generated through instability also have?
also have shorter time scales (on the order of seasons) and would act as random noise forcing to interdecadal climate variability
for interdecadal variability, the slow ocean dynamics provides the leading candidate mechanism for the oscillation. since interdecadal climate variability is usually of basin scale, the relevant ocean dynamics are usually thought to involve large-scale baroclinic rossby waves in the extratropics. these waves are often called planetary waves because they have spatial scales from hundreds to thousands of kilometers, much larger than the baroclinic deformation radius. these extratropical planetary waves travel slowly, taking years to decades to cross the ocean basin and, therefore, could be relevant for interdecadal climate variability. in comparison, equatorial rossby waves and kelvin waves are of seasonal time scales, only providing the memory for interannual variability such as enso [see discussion below on (2)]. extratropical synoptic oceanic rossby waves generated through instability also have shorter time scales (on the order of seasons) and would act as random noise forcing to interdecadal climate variability. in the discussion above on table 2, we mainly discussed the general mechanism giving rise to preferred time scales. the role of ocean dynamics is highlighted as the leading mechanism for the oscillation time scale of interdecadal variability. here, we further study the specific ocean dynamical processes responsible for interdecadal variability. for convenience we will classify the
What is associated with intracellular freezing of xylem parenchyma cells?
the effect of minimum freezing temperature on freezing-induced xylem embolism observed in previous studies (lo gullo salleo 1993, pockman sperry 1997) is associated with intracellular freezing of xylem parenchyma cells
What is the substantial evidence that is accumulating?
substantial evidence is accumulating supporting that transpiring plants are able to repair cavitated xylem conduits
What has led to the alternative compensating pressure theory?
the apparent contradiction between theory and experimental results has led to the alternative compensating pressure theory
our results showed that the effect of minimum freezing temperature on freezing-induced xylem embolism observed in previous studies (lo gullo salleo 1993, pockman sperry 1997) is associated with intracellular freezing of xylem parenchyma cells (chapter 2). these results have implications for the current debate on the mechanism of water transport in plant xylem. substantial evidence is accumulating supporting that transpiring plants are able to repair cavitated xylem conduits (chapter 1). this is difficult to fit into the accepted cohesion theory of sap ascent because refilling would need to occur under substantial xylem tensions. the apparent contradiction between theory and experimental results has led to the alternative compensating pressure theory (canny 1995, 1998), which has been criticised both on theoretical (comstock 1999) and experimental grounds (stiller sperry 1999). refilling could occur at negative pressures provided that cavitated conduits are hydraulically isolated from functional ones, and that there is a flux of water into the conduits until the gas phase is forced back into solution. it has been suggested that living parenchyma cells provide the driving force for refilling (holbrook zwieniecki 1999). additionally, recent measurements support that the properties of vessel walls allow the required compartmentalization of the repair process (zwieniecki holbrook 2000). most of the data on refilling under negative xylem pressures come from studies of drought-induced xylem embolism. taken together with these data, our results suggest that living parenchyma cells may have an active role in embolism repair regardless of the mechanism involved in the formation of embolisms. if this is true, the activity of parenchyma cells would have potential and unstudied implications for the acclimation of plants to freezing and drought. clearly, additional studies on the subject are required. although the cohesion theory remains the most parsimonious explanation of the ascent of sap in plants, it is becoming increasingly clear that some of the mechanisms involved in sap ascent are more complex than previously thought and may involve living cells.
what should be learnt from experiences?
yet we have learnt from experience that benefits can be maximised and risks minimised if vulnerable populations are meaningfully involved in the planning, implementation, monitoring and evaluation of coordinated responses to environmental change
mention the important conclusion?
this points towards one of the most important conclusions to draw from this report. namely, that the scope and scale of challenges we face may be unprecedented; but we meet them already having many of the resources--including knowledge, skills and relationships--needed to protect the dignity and basic rights of persons threatened by displacement from environmental change
What are the necessitates a crucial role for central governments?
the scale of current and projected environmental changes necessitates a crucial role for central governments
the scale of current and projected environmental changes necessitates a crucial role for central governments. yet we have learnt from experience that benefits can be maximised and risks minimised if vulnerable populations are meaningfully involved in the planning, implementation, monitoring and evaluation of coordinated responses to environmental change. this points towards one of the most important conclusions to draw from this report. namely, that the scope and scale of challenges we face may be unprecedented; but we meet them already having many of the resources--including knowledge, skills and relationships--needed to protect the dignity and basic rights of persons threatened by displacement from environmental change.
What is TEM?
the general hypothesis is that the magnitude of the disparity (tem) between performance and tolerance temperature thresholds relative to environmental variance determines the likelihood of failure of biogeographic model predictions
What is mechanistic models?
importantly, data on performance, energetics, and environmental variation allow exploration of the likelihood of changes in mechanism; mechanistic models can also fail if the possibility of change in limiting mechanism is not explored (table 2). this analysis yields a number of explicit predictions under warming conditions
the concept outlined in this study has both general and specific value. the general hypothesis is that the magnitude of the disparity (tem) between performance and tolerance temperature thresholds relative to environmental variance determines the likelihood of failure of biogeographic model predictions. specifically, whereas correlative (climate envelope) models may be sufficient for species with small tem or habitats with much larger environmental variance than the scale of tem, more process-based models - and especially those that incorporate energetics approaches (e.g., sar  a et al. 2011) - may be required for species with large tem values relative to environmental variance. importantly, data on performance, energetics, and environmental variation allow exploration of the likelihood of changes in mechanism; mechanistic models can also fail if the possibility of change in limiting mechanism is not explored (table 2). this analysis yields a number of explicit predictions under warming conditions:
How many major units of soil does the FAO indicate?
26
How many slope classes are there?
three
What would qualify a slope to be in the "steeply dissected to mountainous" class?
more than 30% slope
soil data these were obtained from the food and agriculture organization (fao). they provide information on major and minor soils by districts in the country fao, 2003 ). the fao classifies soils into 26 major units and 107 sub-categories based on soil texture (coarse, medium or fine) and the slope of the land. three slope classes are distinguished: (a) level to gently undulating, with generally less than 8% slope; (b) rolling to hilly with slopes between 8% and 30%; and (c) steeply dissected to mountainous, with more than 30% slope. the major soil categories are measured as the proportion of total soil composition in the country. for simplicity of analysis, this study tested for the influence of only the major soil categories in the country (see more details in fao, 2003 ).
What does the ECV reference include?
this reference includes a range of average multidecadal ecv time series and a brief account of ecv provenance
What does WCRP refer to?
world climate research programme
Why are systemic assessments and evaluation a general need at the national level?
annual statements on the state of the global climate are now structured around the ecvs
annual statements on the state of the global climate are now structured around the ecvs (blunden and arndt 2013; this reference includes a range of average multidecadal ecv time series and a brief account of ecv provenance), and so is a recent report on global climate events during the decade of 2001-10 (wmo 2013). most of the essential needs for sustained observation identified by the world climate research programme (wcrp) and enabling the work of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) are based on the ecvs (doherty et al. 2009). systematic assessment and evaluation of ecv datasets at the international level is a general need, and has begun (wcrp 2011; stubenrauch et al. 2013).
Based on what studies scientists have developed models to predict the timing of flowering and vegetative bud burst?
cold temperatures slightly above freezing help satisfy chilling requirements for rest completion. once critical chilling requirements are met, warm temperatures then acceler ate bud burst. based on studies of these processes, scientists have developed quantitative models to predict the timing of flowering and vegetative bud burst under different winter and spring tem perature regimes
How many degrees of temperature warming is expected to hasten bud break?
warming of about 2-3 deg c is expected to hasten bud break
linko sa lo et ai., 2006 ). cold temperatures slightly above freezing help satisfy chilling requirements for rest completion. once critical chilling requirements are met, warm temperatures then acceler ate bud burst. based on studies of these processes, scientists have developed quantitative models to predict the timing of flowering and vegetative bud burst under different winter and spring tem perature regimes chuine, 2000; saxe et ai., 2001; linkosalo et ai., 2006; hanninen and kramer, 2007; harrington et ai., 2010). these models will be important components of process-based growth and species distribution models chu i ne, 2010 ). phenological responses to climate change will depend on the amount and timing of warming and its impact on the ability of species and populations to meet their chilling and flushing require ments morin et ai., 2009 many observations m e nzel et ai., 2006; linkosalo et ai., 2009 and modeling studies (hanninen, 1991; linkosalo et ai., 2000) indicate that bud burst will advance with moderate warming, given that chilling requirements have been satisfied. warming of about 2-3 deg c is expected to hasten bud break in
What should differences in MA be accompanied by?
although often considered to be relatively invariant, di ff erences in ma should nevertheless be accompanied by di ff erences in leaf carbon composition
What should the greater proportion of dry matter in high MA plants be associated with?
for example, the greater proportion of dry matter invested 3711 in cell walls as expected in high ma plants should also be associated with increased levels of carbon rich structural carbohydrate compounds such as lignin and cellulose (niinemets, 1997
In addition to d13C, what can also be considered for plant leaves?
here, as well as considering d13c we also examine the integration into the plant physiological spectrum of leaf carbon content
here, as well as considering d13c we also examine the integration into the plant physiological spectrum of leaf carbon content. although often considered to be relatively invariant, di ff erences in ma should nevertheless be accompanied by di ff erences in leaf carbon composition. for example, the greater proportion of dry matter invested 3711 in cell walls as expected in high ma plants should also be associated with increased levels of carbon rich structural carbohydrate compounds such as lignin and cellulose (niinemets, 1997). although not reporting on the relationships between individual compounds or elements and ma, when investigating leaf chemical variations for 45 di ff erent french guiana rain forest species, h"attenschwiler et al. (2008) reported considerable 5
How does the majority of the glob act about change?
the majority of the globe 55 shows low agreement in the direction of projected change
What will probably happen by the end of the century?
by the end of the century there is consensus that the vast majority of the globe 82 will experience disruptions in fire activity
How is fire activity spread through the world?
most of the predicted increase occurs in the higher northern latitudes, although in some regions of central europe and central north america such changes are projected to be relatively minor. in contrast, the world ' s decreasing fire activity is centered on the equatorial regions, a trend that is amplified through the end of the century
in the near term, despite consensus on key areas of increased and decreased fire activity, the majority of the globe 55 shows low agreement in the direction of projected change. even so, the ensemble mean change in fire probabilities for many of these areas of low agreement may, in fact, be relatively small. accordingly, some of this uncertainty could equate to relative stability in fire activity over the next few decades. however, the magnitude of change and the degree of agreement among gcms grows substantially through time. by the end of the century there is consensus that the vast majority of the globe 82 will experience disruptions in fire activity. model agreement is strongest for fire increases in both the near and distant future (37.8 and 61.9 of terrestrial areas, respectively). most of the predicted increase occurs in the higher northern latitudes, although in some regions of central europe and central north america such changes are projected to be relatively minor. in contrast, the world ' s decreasing fire activity is centered on the equatorial regions, a trend that is amplified through the end of the century.
What is the mass e-folding time for the smoke?
the mass e-folding time for the smoke is 4.6 years
How are the black carbon particles heated?
the black carbon particles in the aerosol layer for the 150 tg case are heated by absorption of shortwave radiation
About how long do soot aerosols affect surface climate?
the soot aerosols have a very long residence time and continue to affect surface climate for more than a decade
as found by robock et al. [2007] for a 5 tg case, the black carbon particles in the aerosol layer for the 150 tg case are heated by absorption of shortwave radiation and lofted into the upper stratosphere. the aerosols quickly spread globally and produce a long-lasting climate forcing (figure 1). they end up much higher than is typical of weakly absorbing volcanic sulfate aerosols, which typically are just above the tropopause stenchikov et al. 1998]. as a result, the soot aerosols have a very long residence time and continue to affect surface climate for more than a decade. the mass e-folding time for the smoke is 4.6 years, as compared to 1 year for typical volcanic eruptions oman et al. 2006a] and 1 week for tropospheric aerosols. after 4.6 years, the e-folding time is reduced, but is still longer than that of volcanic aerosols. in addition to the lofting of the smoke by solar absorption, another reason for this difference is that volcanic sulfate aerosols are larger, with an effective radius of 0.5 m m, and thus they have a higher settling velocity than the smaller smoke aerosols. this long smoke aerosol lifetime is different from results found in
By what year may the temperatures change and how?
by the 2050s, typical spring temperatures may occur between one and three weeks earlier than at present (this statement relates to the means for the 1990s rather than 2003, which was already exceptional) and the onset of present winter temperatures may be delayed by between one and three weeks
What happens to cooling and heating by 2050?
the heating and cooling requirements of buildings will also change, with less energy being needed to heat buildings in the uk through the winter and more energy needed to cool buildings, particularly ones that are poorly designed for the climate
The changes in temparatures that may occur by 2050 can affect what in plants
by the 2050s, typical spring temperatures may occur between one and three weeks earlier than at present (this statement relates to the means for the 1990s rather than 2003, which was already exceptional) and the onset of present winter temperatures may be delayed by between one and three weeks. this is likely to lead to a lengthening of the growing season for plants
by the 2050s, typical spring temperatures may occur between one and three weeks earlier than at present (this statement relates to the means for the 1990s rather than 2003, which was already exceptional) and the onset of present winter temperatures may be delayed by between one and three weeks. this is likely to lead to a lengthening of the growing season for plants. the heating and cooling requirements of buildings will also change, with less energy being needed to heat buildings in the uk through the winter and more energy needed to cool buildings, particularly ones that are poorly designed for the climate
What could reduce climate change hazard vulnerability?
reductions in poverty, including improvements in housing and living conditions, and in provision for infrastructure and services, would reduce climate change hazard vulnerability
What could reduce vulnerabilities and mitigate climate change?
moreover, an articulation of the brown and the green agenda perspectives in dealing with human settlements could reduce vulnerabilities and mitigate climate change
reductions in poverty, including improvements in housing and living conditions, and in provision for infrastructure and services, would reduce climate change hazard vulnerability. moreover, an articulation of the brown and the green agenda perspectives in dealing with human settlements could reduce vulnerabilities and mitigate climate change.127 for example, reforestation and aff orestation can reduce risks of fl ooding. indirect eff ects on settlements (eg, health, lack of water, migration, and livelihoods) and how urban dwellers develop mechanisms to cope with these eff ects need to be assessed to understand how these mechanisms could be mainstreamed into urban planning responses to climate change adaptation.128
What does ALCC mean?
anthropogenic land cover change
What causes biogeochemical warming?
co2 emissions
Name one region where biogeochemical warming substantially weakened by the counteracting biogeophysical response.
europe
this study has separated the climate response caused by biogeophysical effects of historical anthropogenic land cover change (alcc) from that caused by biogeochemical effects. it has gone beyond previous studies by applying a high - detail land cover reconstruction, and by performing millennium - scale transient simulations with a coupled atmosphere/ocean gcm. it has found that the biogeochemical warming, caused by co2 emissions, is stronger than the cooling caused by biogeophysical effects such as increased albedo. this dominance of the biogeochemical effects has been identified for global mean temperatures, but also for most regions. only in few regions, such as india or europe, is the biogeochemical warming substantially weakened by the counteracting biogeophysical response. we have presented the first gcm study that separates biogeophysical from biogeochemical effects. as computational power, needed for millennium - scale carbon cycle simulations, becomes available, this study should be repeated across a range of gcms. in particular with respect to a substantial spread of the biogeophysical climate response such a model intercomparison is needed before the sign of the climate response to historical alcc can be finally agreed on. acknowledgments. we thank victor brovkin for providing the emic intercomparison data.
What is carbon capability?
carbon capability is an analogue to financial capability applied to human--caused climate change
What is the definition of financial capability?
financial capability can be defined as 'the ability to make informed judgements and to take effective decisions regarding the use and management of money
What does the carbon capability refers to?
translating these concepts and techniques into carbon management, 'carbon capability' therefore refers to technical, material and social aspects of knowledge, understanding and practice
carbon capability is an analogue to financial capability applied to human--caused climate change (seyfang et al 2007). financial capability can be defined as 'the ability to make informed judgements and to take effective decisions regarding the use and management of money' (national foundation for educational research, quoted in adflag, 2000. para. 4.2) and includes: managing money, planning ahead, choosing products and staying informed (atkinson et al 2007). translating these concepts and techniques into carbon management, 'carbon capability' therefore refers to technical, material and social aspects of knowledge, understanding and practice. indeed, there are the same driving forces, and comparable consumer issues with both types of capability, which require a holistic approach to learning about sustainable consumption in both financial and resource terms (seyfang et al 2007).
What is the margin of adjustment in the production function?
the only margin of adjustment being substitution, whereby the producer is able to switch among different known and available techniques of production in response to a change in the relative price of inputs
What determines the magnitude of the shift in price?
the magnitude of this shift is determined the shares of the two inputs in production, their relative prices, and the elasticity of substitution
What is Q when M is all possible means of producing?
in the case where the set m completely specifies all possible means of producing output -- at t or any other period -- then q is all-encompassing and immutable
dmd t th in the case where the set m completely specifies all possible means of producing output -- at t or any other period -- then q is all-encompassing and immutable. in this world the production function is an essentially static concept, with the only margin of adjustment being substitution, whereby the producer is able to switch among different known and available techniques of production in response to a change in the relative price of inputs. the magnitude of this shift is determined the shares of the two inputs in production, their relative prices, and the elasticity of substitution, s which determines the curvature of q .6
What approach does Tom Crompton challenge in regards to how to engage the public around climate change?
highlighting the central role of human values in the debate about how best to engage the public around climate change, a series of publications associated with the environmental campaigner tom crompton have challenged the legitimacy of the social marketing approach
What is the central argument of Crompton's work?
he central argument of crompton and his colleagues' work is that given the negative relationship between self-enhancing values and engagement with environmental issues, these sorts of campaigns--although potentially effective for producing small scale, piecemeal and short-term behavioral changes--undermine the 'common cause' on which all campaigns on 'bigger than self' issues like climate change ultimately depend, namely, the activation of self-transcendent values in the general population
Who has challenged the engagement of the public in regards to climate change on social media?
highlighting the central role of human values in the debate about how best to engage the public around climate change, a series of publications associated with the environmental campaigner tom crompton have challenged the legitimacy of the social marketing approach
highlighting the central role of human values in the debate about how best to engage the public around climate change, a series of publications associated with the environmental campaigner tom crompton have challenged the legitimacy of the social marketing approach.13,92,93the central argument of crompton and his colleagues' work is that given the negative relationship between self-enhancing values and engagement with environmental issues, these sorts of campaigns--although potentially effective for producing small scale, piecemeal and short-term behavioral changes--undermine the 'common cause' on which all campaigns on 'bigger than self' issues like climate change ultimately depend, namely, the activation of self-transcendent values in the general population.13,94
sources of nutrient depositions?
increased nutrient deposition as a consequence of land use can alter soil fertility and increase plant growth rates
how possible to hypothesis of habitat breadths?
a hypothesis could possibly explain the contraction in habitat breadths of uk butterfly species that require open, short turf habitat types, contrary to the expectation that climate warming should have increased the number of suitable microsites for these species
does climate change is affect the plant growth?
a potential causal pathway does exist, whereby land use affects plant growth, which will in turn alter surface microclimate and influence species' responses to changes in macroclimatic conditions
increased nutrient deposition as a consequence of land use can alter soil fertility and increase plant growth rates.54it has been suggested that increased vegetative growth resulting from a combination of nutrient deposition and climate warming can cause increased shading and lead to cooler microclimates at soil surfaces.97such a hypothesis could possibly explain the contraction in habitat breadths of uk butterfly species that require open, short turf habitat types, contrary to the expectation that climate warming should have increased the number of suitable microsites for these species.98however, such evidence provides only tentative support of this hypothesis and further analysis and experimentation is necessary; but a potential causal pathway does exist, whereby land use affects plant growth, which will in turn alter surface microclimate and influence species' responses to changes in macroclimatic conditions.
What type of data makes it possible to determine definitively how adolescents' expectations correspond to their actual behavior in adulthood?
these statements of adolescents' intentions are not assumed to be an iron-clad indicator of their future involvement, for only with longitudinal data is it possible to determine definitively how adolescents' expectations correspond to their actual behavior in adulthood
The classroom climate must be interacted with a measure of socioeconomic status, to adjudicate between what two hypotheses?
to adjudicate between the compensation and acceleration hypotheses, classroom climate must be interacted with a measure of socioeconomic status
Why is determining the SES of adolescents difficult?
determining the ses of adolescents is difficult, as they are not likely to provide an accurate estimate of their family's income
these statements of adolescents' intentions are not assumed to be an iron-clad indicator of their future involvement, for only with longitudinal data is it possible to determine definitively how adolescents' expectations correspond to their actual behavior in adulthood. however, longitudinal analysis of high school students who were asked a similar battery of questions finds that anticipated activity in adolescence does correlate highly with observed activity in adulthood (campbell 2006 )--suggesting that they have some ability to predict future behavior. nevertheless, the most conservative interpretation of these items is that they measure adolescents' current civic identity, since they are a window into how young people think of themselves in relation to their political environment. compensation versus acceleration to adjudicate between the compensation and acceleration hypotheses, classroom climate must be interacted with a measure of socioeconomic status. determining the ses of adolescents is difficult, as they are not likely to provide an accurate estimate of their family's income. many adolescents are even unable to report their parents' level of education (in the u.s. component of cived, one third of the respondents indicated that they did not know their father's level of education). there, just as voting is measured with an item that asks adolescents to look forward, so is socioeconomic status. specifically, it is measured with expected education a question that asks ''how many years of further education do you expect to complete after this year?'' among adults, educational attainment is the measure of ses that has the most consistent impact on political engagement (nie et al. 1996 ). similarly, expected education is a robust predictor of political engagement (no matter how it is operationalized) among adolescents, indicating that it is also a proxy for socioeconomic status. when interacted with classroom climate, expected education permits a test of whether classroom climate has, as hypothesized, a stronger impact on young people with lower ses. a negative relationship for the interaction is evidence for the compensation hypothesis (conversely, a positive relationship would indicate an acceleration effect). alternative sources of political information the classroom is only one avenue by which adolescents can learn about politics. the home is another, and especially important, source of political education. ideally, the analysis would include measures of parents' political engagement. as cived is a survey of adolescents only, it is not possible to include measures from parents directly. instead, the adolescent respondents were asked to report the frequency of their political discussions with family members--an admittedly imperfect but still reasonable proxy for the degree of political involvement in the home. home discussion is measured with an additive index of two items. one asks about conversations with adult family members regarding u.s. politics, the second is a parallel question about international affairs. still another source of political learning is the news media. respondents' exposure to information in the media is gauged with a series of questions about the
Which european city has the largest green roofs are per capita in the world?
the city of basel in switzerland has the highest area of green roofs per capita in the world
Which university promoted the focus on green roofs?
zurich university of applied sciences
What has stimulated the use of green roofs?
the use of green roofs has been stimulated by a combination of financial incentives and building regulations
the city of basel in switzerland has the highest area of green roofs per capita in the world. the use of green roofs has been stimulated by a combination of financial incentives and building regulations. building regulations have required the use of vegetation on roofs since their implementation in 2002. initiatives aiming to increase the provision of green roofs in basel were initially driven by energy-saving programmes, and subsequently by biodiversity conservation. the focus on green roofs was promoted by the researchers from the zurich university of applied sciences in wadenswil, switzerland, who worked to influence decision-makers in basel to amend the building regulations and offer financial incentives to increase green roof coverage.
Will climate change marine life?
climate change will alter marine ecosystems; however, the complexity of the food webs, combined with chronic undersampling, constrains efforts to predict their future and to optimally manage and protect marine resources
Where is the enviornmental change?
sustained observations at the west antarctic peninsula show that in this region, rapid environmental change has coincided with shifts in the food web, from its base up to apex predators
climate change will alter marine ecosystems; however, the complexity of the food webs, combined with chronic undersampling, constrains efforts to predict their future and to optimally manage and protect marine resources. sustained observations at the west antarctic peninsula show that in this region, rapid environmental change has coincided with shifts in the food web, from its base up to apex predators. new strategies will be required to gain further insight into how the marine climate system has influenced such changes and how it will do so in the future. robotic networks, satellites, ships, and instruments mounted on animals and ice will collect data needed to improve numerical models that can then be used to study the future of polar ecosystems as climate change progresses.
What is the purpose of this article?
to analyse reasons underlying the neglect of social climate in education
What is discussed?
implications for counteracting reductive interpretations and meeting resistance and criticism
What is closely related to classroom climate?
the concept of social climate
the purpose of this article is to analyse reasons underlying the neglect of social climate in education. it discusses the relevance of the concept of social climate in learning environments, presents evidence for its effects and importance in special-needs and inclusive education, presents differences existing between settings and discusses the contribution of social climate to teachers' professional autonomy. the arguments support the view that social climate is an essential factor in educational processes and make incomprehensible the sparse attention given to it in educational policy, research and teacher education programs. indications of neglect in the swedish context are presented. the resistance towards the concept of social climate is related to: dualistic and hierarchical views; characteristics of bureaucratic systems; reductionist interpretations; difficulties in handling and evaluating social values and goals; and post-modern criticism of scientific knowledge and psychology. implications for counteracting reductive interpretations and meeting resistance and criticism are discussed. keywords educational research  interpersonal relationships  learning environment  social climate  teacher education background the social climate in educational settings is shaped by the relationships between teachers and pupils and among pupils. the quality, quantity and directions of these relationships further affect pupils' self-concept, motivation and performance (fraser 1986 ). the concept of social climate is closely related to classroom climate, school climate and school ethos, and refers to characteristics of the psychosocial environment of educational settings. interpersonal relationships, student-teacher relationship, peer relationships, teachers' beliefs and behaviours, teachers' communication style, classroom management and group processes are themes that can be considered to be included in the concept of the
So, instead of having a high number of ponds in series, what would be the alternative?
a single pond with a predominantly longitudinal pathway can be adopted, which can be obtained through a series of u-curves or baffles
What is safer, from the point of view of organic overloading?
lower ratios, of the order of 2 to 4
plug flow theoretically, an infinite number of cells in series corresponds to a plug flow, which would be the most efficient system for the removal of bod. thus, instead of having a high number of ponds in series, a single pond with a predominantly longitudinal pathway can be adopted, which can be obtained through a series of u-curves or baffles. in this case, the mentioned aspects of organic overloading close to the inlet zone should be taken into consideration. the plug flow is more used for the polishing of the effluent, such as in maturation ponds, in which there is no concern with organic overload in the inlet zone. for facultative ponds, yanez (1993) suggests a maximum length breadth ratio of 8:1. however, it is believed that lower ratios, of the order of 2 to 4 can be safer, from the point of view of organic overloading.
Explore the SRES A1B display?
as described in section 2 we investigate here the sres scenario a1b and compare two 30-yr periods of 1961-90 (20c), which represents the present climate, and 2071-2100 (21c), which represents a future climate
Explain ECHAM5 AMIP ?
for a general reference of this climate change experiment see muller and roeckner (2006). here we analyze and discuss changes in the storm tracks between the two periods. for the extratropics in both hemispheres the 20c run agrees with the echam5 amip runs in most details (not shown). there are somewhat larger differences in the tropics (not shown) as the sst distribution of the coupled model differs from the prescribed ssts used in the amip integrations
What is climate?
such differences are presumably unavoidable as the observed climate of a 30-yr period is only one of many possible realizations. furthermore, a climate change experiment is essentially a perturbation study and therefore the discussion will concentrate on the differences between 20c and 21c
as described in section 2 we investigate here the sres scenario a1b and compare two 30-yr periods of 1961-90 (20c), which represents the present climate, and 2071-2100 (21c), which represents a future climate. for a general reference of this climate change experiment see muller and roeckner (2006). here we analyze and discuss changes in the storm tracks between the two periods. for the extratropics in both hemispheres the 20c run agrees with the echam5 amip runs in most details (not shown). there are somewhat larger differences in the tropics (not shown) as the sst distribution of the coupled model differs from the prescribed ssts used in the amip integrations. such differences are presumably unavoidable as the observed climate of a 30-yr period is only one of many possible realizations. furthermore, a climate change experiment is essentially a perturbation study and therefore the discussion will concentrate on the differences between 20c and 21c.
What does experiments enable us perform?
analyses of causation
What are experiment simulations useful to test?
the effects of forecasted extremes that have not yet occurred
What does trend-based climate change research focussed primarily on?
elevated temperature and enhanced co2
experiments enable us to perform analyses of causation, whereas adequate controls are often missing in field observations of naturally occurring extreme weather events. in addition, experimental simulations are a useful tool to test the effects of forecasted extremes that have not yet occurred. here, we focus on controlled field experiments in ecological climate change research. we conducted a literature study, searching the isi web of science for ["climate change" or "climatic change"] and "experiment*" and ["vegetation" or "plant*"]. in december 2006, this search yielded about 2300 published papers. from these, only original studies on the response of plants to experimentally manipulated climate parameters were selected, giving 364 studies. these were separated into research focusing on "events" and research focusing on shifts in mean "trends". the results show that experimental climate change research has existed since the 1990s (figure 5a). within this field, event-focused research has increased and, in 2006, accounted for onefifth of the experimental climate change studies published. generally, trend-based climate change research has focused primarily on elevated temperature and enhanced co2 (figure 5b) and produced crucial knowledge about the effects on biomass production (figure 5c),
What is radiative forcing defined as?
note that rf must be defined as a perturbation from an initial state, whether that state be the complete absence of aerosols, the estimate of aerosol loading from pre-industrial times, or an estimate of aerosol loading for today's natural aerosols
What other quantities need to be specified when reporting aerosol RF?
other quantities that need to be specified when reporting aerosol rf include the wavelength range, the temporal averaging, the cloud conditions considered for direct effects, and the aerosolcloud interactions that are being considered for the broad classifications of indirect and semi-direct effects
What is the key to reducing aerosol RF uncertainty estimates?
the key to reducing aerosol rf uncertainty estimates is to understand the contributing processes well enough to accurately reproduce them in models
the u.s. climate change science program executive summary 2 at the surface. such a perturbation of sunlight by aerosols is designated aerosol radiative forcing (rf). note that rf must be defined as a perturbation from an initial state, whether that state be the complete absence of aerosols, the estimate of aerosol loading from pre-industrial times, or an estimate of aerosol loading for today's natural aerosols. the rf calculated from the difference between today's total aerosol loading (natural plus anthropogenic) and each of the three initial states mentioned above will result in different values. also, the aerosol rf calculated at the top of the atmosphere, the bottom of the atmosphere, or any altitude in between, will result in different values. other quantities that need to be specified when reporting aerosol rf include the wavelength range, the temporal averaging, the cloud conditions considered for direct effects, and the aerosolcloud interactions that are being considered for the broad classifications of indirect and semi-direct effects. regardless of the exact definition of aerosol rf, it is characterized by large spatial and temporal heterogeneity due to the wide variety of aerosol sources and types, the spatial non-uniformity and intermittency of these sources, the short atmospheric lifetime of aerosols, and the chemical and microphysical processing that occurs in the atmosphere. on a global average basis, the sum of direct and indirect forcing by anthropogenic aerosols at the top of the atmosphere is almost certainly negative (a cooling influence), and thus almost certainly offsets a fraction of the positive (warming) forcing due to anthropogenic greenhouse gases. however, because of the spatial and temporal non-uniformity of the aerosol rf, and likely differences in the effects of shortwave and longwave forcings, the net effect on earth's climate is not simply a fractional offset to the effects of forcing by anthropogenic greenhouse gases. es 1.3. reducing uncertainties in aerosol radiative forcing estimates the need to represent aerosol influences on climate is rooted in the larger, policy related requirement to predict the climate changes that would result from different future emission strategies. this requires that confidence in climate models be based on their ability to accurately represent not just present climate, but also the changes that have occurred over roughly the past century. achieving such confidence depends upon adequately understanding the forcings that have occurred over this period. although the forcing by long-lived greenhouse gases is known relatively accurately for this period, the history of total forcing is not, due mainly to the uncertain contribution of aerosols. present-day aerosol radiative forcing relative to preindustrial is estimated primarily using numerical models that simulate the emissions of aerosol particles and gaseous precursors and the aerosol and cloud processes in the atmosphere. the accuracy of the models is assessed primarily by comparison with observations. the key to reducing aerosol rf uncertainty estimates is to understand the contributing processes well enough to accurately reproduce them in models. this report assesses present ability to represent in models the distribution, properties and forcings of present-day aerosols, and examines the limitations of currently available models and measurements. the report identifies three specific areas where continued, focused effort would likely result in substantial reduction in present-day aerosol forcing uncertainty estimates: (1) improving quality and coverage of aerosol measurements, (2) achieving more effective use of these measurements to constrain model simulation/assimilation and to test model parameterizations, and (3) producing more accurate representation of aerosols and clouds in models.
What is inevitable according to the first sentence?
scientific uncertainties are inevitable and most iams try to account for these uncertainties by simulating a range of parameters
What is crucial to model?
it is crucial to model scientific uncertainty directly, and rather than pretend to know what is likely to happen in 2100 in either the climate or the economic system, be explicit about our ignorance and look for policy interventions that maintain options and that can adapt as more information arise
What do Allen and Frame argue?
allen and frame 2007 argue that any climate policy reliant upon climate sensitivity should be jettisoned for an adaptive, target-based approach
scientific uncertainties are inevitable and most iams try to account for these uncertainties by simulating a range of parameters. but as pindyck 2013 argues, these uncertainties pose dramatic challenges for iams because they often imply a possibility of catastrophic outcomes and irreversible damages. these extreme outcomes may profoundly affect the social cost of carbon pindyck 2013 stern 2013 ). in fact, since the probability of these "fat-tailed" temperature increases is non-negligible, the calculation of "expected damages" may be entirely inappropriate--yet this is necessary to conduct cost-benefit analysis in poms weitzman 2009 2011 ). there are several poms (e.g. page2002/page09) and extensions of poms (e.g. dietz and stern 2015 for dice) that attempt to deal with catastrophic outcomes explicitly. it is crucial to model scientific uncertainty directly, and rather than pretend to know what is likely to happen in 2100 in either the climate or the economic system, be explicit about our ignorance and look for policy interventions that maintain options and that can adapt as more information arise.2for instance, allen and frame 2007 argue that any climate policy reliant upon climate sensitivity should be jettisoned for an adaptive, target-based approach.
Do rising sea levels have an impact on mangrove growth?
overall our analysis leads us to predict that the total area of mangrove forest in the gbr is likely to increase with sea level rise, particularly as sedimentation, elevated co2, enhanced rainfall and nutrient enrichment have a positive influence on mangrove growth
What is the largest threat to intertidal wetlands in terms of climate change?
the largest threat to the resilience of intertidal wetlands with climate change is the presence of barriers that will prevent landward migration of intertidal wetland communities
How do landward barriers affect salt flat communities?
landward barriers to wetland migration will have particularly negative consequences for salt marsh and salt flat communities that are compressed between human imposed landward barriers and encroaching mangroves
overall our analysis leads us to predict that the total area of mangrove forest in the gbr is likely to increase with sea level rise, particularly as sedimentation, elevated co2, enhanced rainfall and nutrient enrichment have a positive influence on mangrove growth. mangroves will migrate landward and will reoccupy salt marsh and other wetlands inland of current mangrove distributions, as has occurred in the past186,188. large gains in mangrove area, possibly at the expense of salt marsh and salt flats, may be expected in the arid tropics, particularly in estuaries surrounding townsville and rockhampton (figure 9.4). increases are particularly likely if high sediment deposition rates due to land-use change in the catchments are sustained or increased with altered rainfall patterns, creating new habitat for mangrove colonisation. additionally, high sedimentation and enhanced mangrove growth with elevated co2 and anthropogenic nutrient enrichment may enable mangrove fringes to maintain their position relative to sea level rise, reducing losses of seaward fringing forests due to submergence. losses in mangrove area may occur if high temperatures and aridity depress mangrove productivity and if sediment delivery is reduced. pollution and storm damage could accentuate these losses76. under scenarios of negative human influence (eg pollution and impoundment by building of barriers), reductions of fringing mangroves may be substantial, and forests establishing landward may have reduced productivity. the largest threat to the resilience of intertidal wetlands with climate change is the presence of barriers that will prevent landward migration of intertidal wetland communities. barriers to landward migration of intertidal communities can be imposed by natural features (eg steep slopes), but urban, agricultural and other human developments that build berms, bunds, seawalls and roads on coastal plains impose significant threats to resilience of mangroves, salt marsh and salt flats with sea level rise. barriers also reduce connectivity between habitats and overall productivity (see chapter 19). landward barriers to wetland migration will have particularly negative consequences for salt marsh and salt flat communities that are compressed between human imposed landward barriers and encroaching mangroves157,3. part ii: species and species groups
Are predictions of the future state of the climate system of benefit to society?
predictions of the future state of the climate system are of potential benefit to society
What are the benefits of long-term prediction?
 predictability in the system hints at processes that have long time scales or that may have periodic behavior. quantifying the predictability associated with such processes can lead to a greater understanding of the climate system
What is the main northward heat-carrying component of the ocean part of the climate system?
the atlantic meridional overturning circulation (moc) is the main northward heat-carrying component of the ocean part of the climate system (e.g., trenberth and caron 2001
predictions of the future state of the climate system are of potential benefit to society. the ability to predict (here we consider the potential ability to predict) can also give insight into the physical aspects of the climate system that are not simply the averaged or integrated effects of chaotic, unpredictable weather "noise." restricting attention to variations in climate that are purely internally generated, predictability in the system hints at processes that have long time scales or that may have periodic behavior. quantifying the predictability associated with such processes can lead to a greater understanding of the climate system. operational predictions of climate on seasonal to interannual time scales associated with the el nino- southern oscillation (enso) are now commonplace (e.g., goddard et al. 2001). prediction systems for other seasonal-interannual "modes" of climate are also emerging (e.g., rodwell and folland 2002). here we consider the predictability of interannual to decadal variations in the north atlantic region. on these time scales, both the initial conditions (principally the initial state of the ocean) and the boundary conditions (associated with both natural and anthropogenic forcing of the system) are important (collins and allen 2002; collins 2002), but here we focus solely on the initial value problem of the predictability of internally generated interannual to decadal climate variability. the atlantic meridional overturning circulation (moc) is the main northward heat-carrying component of the ocean part of the climate system (e.g., trenberth and caron 2001). coupled atmosphere-ocean models (aogcms) exhibit internally generated variations in the strength of the moc and associated heat transport (e.g., dong and sutton 2001), and the surface
Why are the two soil carbon models were used in experiments?
the two soil carbon models were used in experiments to assess the sensitivity of soil carbon to climate change with and without multipool soil carbon dynamics
What directly affected the atmospheric CO2 concentration?
in the original coupled climate carbon cycle experiments (cox et al ., 2000; jones et al ., 2003b), accumulation and release of soil carbon directly affected the atmospheric co2 concentration
Who used A time step of 1 month successfully ?
a time step of 1 month was used successfully by raich potter (1995) and reichstein et al (2003
the two soil carbon models were used in experiments to assess the sensitivity of soil carbon to climate change with and without multipool soil carbon dynamics. output climate forcing data and plant carbon inputs from a climate change simulation were used to drive the two models (see fig. 2). in the original coupled climate carbon cycle experiments (cox et al ., 2000; jones et al ., 2003b), accumulation and release of soil carbon directly affected the atmospheric co2 concentration and hence climate. in the present work, the output of the climate model was used to drive both of the soil carbon models in an 'off-line' manner - in other words, there was no feedback between soil carbon changes and climate. performing off-line runs in this way makes it possible to vary or hold constant some of the components of the forcing data to examine which factors are more important in determining the evolution of soil carbon. the offline runs were performed using monthly mean output from the gcm averaged over a decade for each month. hence, there is no interannual variability in these experiments. a time step of 1 month was used successfully by raich potter (1995) and reichstein et al (2003). the model simulates naturally occurring changes in vegetation, but disturbance because of agriculture is held fixed at present-day levels and no attempt is made to include the effects of changes in anthropogenic land use. the fully coupled and off-line versions of hadcm3lc were compared to ensure that the offline methodology could correctly recreate the fully coupled results. figure 3 compares the global total and the regional pattern of soil carbon changes from the fully coupled run and the offline run. it shows the averaged monthly forcing in the off-line version of the model can reproduce the behaviour seen when it is a fully integrated component of the climate model.
What was used to model the climate profiles of 25 biotic communities?
the random forests multiple-regression tree was used to model climate profiles of 25 biotic communities of the western united states and nine of their constituent species
What was the analysis of these communities based on?
analyses of the communities were based on a gridded sample of ca. 140,000 points, while those for the species used presence-absence data from ca. 120,000 locations
What were the independent variables included in this analysis?
independent variables included 35 simple expressions of temperature and precipitation and their interactions. classification errors for community models averaged 19%, but the errors were reduced by half when adjusted for misalignment between geographic data sets. errors of omission for species-specific models approached 0, while errors of commission were less than 9
the random forests multiple-regression tree was used to model climate profiles of 25 biotic communities of the western united states and nine of their constituent species. analyses of the communities were based on a gridded sample of ca. 140,000 points, while those for the species used presence-absence data from ca. 120,000 locations. independent variables included 35 simple expressions of temperature and precipitation and their interactions. classification errors for community models averaged 19%, but the errors were reduced by half when adjusted for misalignment between geographic data sets. errors of omission for species-specific models approached 0, while errors of commission were less than 9%. mapped climate profiles of the species were in solid agreement with range maps. climate variables of most importance for segregating the communities were those that generally differentiate maritime, continental, and monsoonal climates, while those of importance for predicting the occurrence of species varied among species but consistently implicated the periodicity of precipitation and temperature-precipitation interactions. projections showed that unmitigated global warming should increase the abundance primarily of the montane forest and grassland community profiles at the expense largely of those of the subalpine, alpine, and tundra communities but also that of the arid woodlands. however, the climate of 47% of the future landscape may be extramural to contemporary community profiles. effects projected on the spatial distribution of species-specific profiles were varied, but shifts in space and altitude would be extensive. species-specific projections were not necessarily consistent with those of their communities. keywords: bioclimatic models, random forests multiple-regression tree, climatic distributions, climatic niche, response to climate change, global warming.
What is the Antarctic ice sheet relevant to?
is particularly relevant to the study of ocean-ice shelf interaction
What is the extension of the Ross ice shelf?
1,000 km
What is the need for swirls?
thus, resolving ocean eddies in and around these embayments will likely be required for robust simulations
the west antarctic ice sheet (wais) is particularly relevant to the study of ocean-ice shelf interaction. not only are ice shelves the primary outlet of grounded ice, but the grounded ice frequently rests on bedrock that is increasingly below sea level as one moves toward the ice interior region (schoof 2007 ). the physical geometry is such that a rapid erosion of the wais due to ocean-ice shelf interaction is a plausible scenario for the twenty-first century. ice shelves connected to wais have spatial extents of more than 1,000 km (e.g., the ross ice shelf) down to less than 50 km (e.g., the thwaites ice shelf). the embayments where this ice flows into the ocean have similar ranges in spatial scale. while the ice shelves are not as dynamically active as the ice streams that feed them, the structure and shape of the ice-ocean interface is a primary factor that drives mixing at this interface (holland et al. 2008 ). grid resolutions of less than 5 km are often used when simulating ocean-ice shelf coupled dynamics. furthermore, analysis of the global 1/10 degree ocean simulations in the vicinity of wais indicates that the transport of heat into these embayments may be eddy-driven and episodic (maltrud, personal communication, 2007). thus, resolving ocean eddies in and around these embayments will likely be required for robust simulations. the horizontal discretization of this system is difficult because part of the domain will be ice (ice domain), part will be ocean (ocean domain), and part will be both ocean and ice (shelf domain). furthermore, the characterization of a region as ice, ocean, or shelf will evolve over the time scales of decades to millennia. due to this complexity and the fact that only limited work has been completed on modeling the coupled ocean-ice shelf system, we will explore techniques to discretize this system in an idealized setting. figure 11 shows our idealized domain with a spatial extent of 1,100 by 550 km. the domain is characterized by a
How can total gross waste be measured?
the difference between production (p) and consumption (c) is the total gross waste made up of waste at the distribution retail and consumer levels. all quantities are product weights
What is the other name for consumer waste in this paper?
the avoidable consumer waste - also referred to as "consumer waste" in this paper
How can non-edible fraction N for each commodity be obtained from?
the non-edible fraction n for each commodity is obtained directly from the food availability data
equation 1 below defines the basic mass balance in the life cycle of a food commodity. the difference between production (p) and consumption (c) is the total gross waste made up of waste at the distribution retail and consumer levels. all quantities are product weights. (1) the food availability data series provides values for each of the terms in equation 1 for all commodities on an annual basis from 1970 through 2009. this is described further in the food waste data section below. is the gross consumer waste, the sum of avoidable and unavoidable consumer waste: (2) the avoidable consumer waste - also referred to as "consumer waste" in this paper - represents uneaten food that is wasted at the consumer level and is defined in equation 3. excludes the unavoidable waste in consumed foods due to non-edible parts (such as skins and shells) as well as fat or moisture losses in cooking. n is the fraction of a food commodity that is non-edible, and l is the fraction that is lost as fat or moisture during cooking. (3) the non-edible fraction n for each commodity is obtained directly from the food availability data. the fat or moisture lost in typical cooking is estimated from usda ers (1998) based on certain cooking assumptions as shown below. these estimates apply only to meats, fish, eggs and oils, all of which lose fat and possibly moisture during cooking. vegetables may lose moisture in cooking, but we assume that this is compensated on average by added moisture during cooking. since cooking methods and cooking losses can vary considerably, these typical loss estimates are subjected to a sensitivity analysis as described in the results and discussion section.
what is the meaning of the term refugia ?
the term refugia refers to physical environments that are less affected by climate change than other areas (e.g., due to local currents, geographic location, etc.) and are thus a ''refuge'' from climate change for organisms
what is the Relocation?
relocation refers to human-facilitated transplantation of organisms from one location to another in order to bypass a barrier (e.g., an urban area). this approach is also referred to as assisted colonization or assisted migration
what is Adaptive management
adaptive management is an iterative process in which management actions are followed by targeted monitoring, the results of which inform changes in management actions
identify refugia and relocate organisms the term refugia refers to physical environments that are less affected by climate change than other areas (e.g., due to local currents, geographic location, etc.) and are thus a ''refuge'' from climate change for organisms. relocation refers to human-facilitated transplantation of organisms from one location to another in order to bypass a barrier (e.g., an urban area). this approach is also referred to as assisted colonization or assisted migration (see hoeghguldberg and others 2008 for example). refugia and relocation, while distinct concepts, are actually subsets of one or more of the approaches listed above. for example, if refugia can be identified locally, they can be considered sites for long-term retention of species (e.g., for representation and to maintain resilience) in forests (joyce and others 2008 ). or, in national wildlife refuges, it may be possible to use restoration techniques to reforest riparian boundaries with native species to create shaded thermal refugia for fish species (scott and others 2008 ). in the case of relocation, an example would be transport of fish populations in the southwest that become stranded as water levels drop to river reaches with appropriate flows (e.g., to preserve species representation and system-wide resilience; palmer and others 2008 ). transplantation of organisms among national parks could preserve system-wide representation of species that would not otherwise be able to overcome barriers to dispersal (baron and others 2008 ). see tables 6 and 7 for additional examples drawn from across the management systems reviewed in ccsp 2008 ). adaptive management once adaptation strategies have been selected, adaptive management is likely to be an effective method for implementation, given uncertainty in their effectiveness. adaptive management is an iterative process in which management actions are followed by targeted monitoring, the results of which inform changes in management actions (walters and hilborn 1978 ). in this cyclic process, management actions serve as full-scale field experiments. since adaptive management emphasizes managing based on observation and continuous learning, it provides a means for addressing varying degrees of uncertainty in our knowledge of current and future climate change impacts (holling 1978 walters 1986 femat 1993 moir and
Where did the result been obtained?
we only obtained this result under unrealistic assumptions about capital supply elasticities (which magnify the inef fi ciency in the initial relative taxation of capital and labor). under more plausible elasticities, the improvement in the relative tax treatment of capital and labor was not enough to offset the disadvantage of the carbon tax associated with its narrowness
How parry and william's doubled the revenue and why?
parry and williams (2013) obtained the double dividend when the revenues are used to compensate for the revenue loss associated with the removal of initial tax-deductibility home mortgage payments and health insurance
where the tax is recycled?
under the carbon tax program implemented in the canadian province of british columbia in 2008, a large fraction of the revenues from the tax is recycled through rebate checks to households
however, we only obtained this result under unrealistic assumptions about capital supply elasticities (which magnify the inef fi ciency in the initial relative taxation of capital and labor). under more plausible elasticities, the improvement in the relative tax treatment of capital and labor was not enough to offset the disadvantage of the carbon tax associated with its narrowness. parry and williams (2013) obtained the double dividend when the revenues are used to compensate for the revenue loss associated with the removal of initial tax-deductibility home mortgage payments and health insurance. 4. fiscal interactions amplify the importance of policy design 4.1. the importance of exploiting the revenue-recycling effect economists often emphasize the idea that the choice of the type of policy instrument is critical to achieving emissions reductions at low cost. for example, they stress the importance of choosing emissions pricing instruments such as emissions taxes or cap-and-trade over more conventional approaches such as mandated technologies or emissions quotas. once fi scal interactions are taken into account, choosing emissions pricing over more conventional approaches does not guarantee cost-savings. emissions pricing, whether in the form of a carbon tax or a system of tradable co2 allowances, can be very cost-effective or quite costly (and more costly than the conventional alternative), depending on the particular design. introducing an emissions-pricing instrument can even lead to a loss of ef fi ciency -- the value of the environmental bene fi ts can fall short of the non-environmental costs. thus, while the choice of type of instrument is important, fi scal interactions imply that the particular design of the chosen instrument is critical as well. fig. 3 brings out the underlying issues. the fi gure is based on recent theory, though i will not present here the theory-based equations that underlie it. (see parry (1997) parry et al. (1999) and goulder (1998) for technical analyses.) the horizontal axis in the fi gure is the extent of carbon dioxide abatement. think of abatement as a function of the carbon tax rate or the price of emissions allowances. as you move from left to right in the fi gure, the increased abatement re fl ects an increase in the price of emissions. primary cost (area a in fig. 1 above) rises with pollution abatement. the tax-interaction effect also increases with abatement. it has a positive intercept: given positive pre-existing factor taxes, the fi rst unit of abatement has a strictly positive tax-interaction effect. when revenues from the emissions-pricing policy are recycled through cuts in the rates of pre-existing taxes, the revenue-recycling effect arises. the darker black line represents the overall cost at different levels of abatement: primary cost plus the tax-interaction effect minus the revenue-recycling effect. except at the origin, this line lies above primary cost, in keeping with the idea that the revenue-recycling effect does not completely offset that tax-interaction effect. the location of the dark black line in the fi gure is in keeping with the previous claims that under standard conditions the double dividend does not arise. to get the double dividend, the revenue-recycling effect would need to outweigh both the tax-interaction effect and primary cost. in that case, the dark line would be below the horizontal axis. the fi gure can help illustrate the importance of policy design. one key design issue is whether and how to return any revenues generated by emissions pricing. suppose the climate policy is a carbon tax with revenue dedicated to fi nancing cuts in income tax rates. in that case, the policy engages the revenue-recycling effect. the overall cost is suggested by the black line. if instead the revenues are recycled lump-sum, for example in the form of a rebate to households, then there is no revenue-recycling effect. in this case, the overall cost is represented by the top line in the fi gure. the cost is considerably higher. the nature of revenue-recycling is very important to policy cost. the cost difference can be very large. parry and williams (2010) show that the effects for reasonable sizes of carbon taxes are to raise the costs by over 35% if you return the revenues lump-sum rather than use the revenues to cut preexisting taxes. despite the potential cost-advantages of recycling in the form of marginal tax rate reductions, some actual carbon tax policies involve lump-sum reductions. under the carbon tax program implemented in the canadian province of british columbia in 2008, a large fraction of the revenues from the tax is recycled through rebate checks to households. this form of revenue-recycling may have had political attractions, but it
What does entropy reduction measure?
entropy reduction measures the sensitivity of changes in probabilities of response variables (i.e. macroinvertebrate taxa richness and fish species richness) when parameters and inputs were changed within the bbn (marcot 2006
What was PCA used to examine?
principal components analysis (pca, based on a covariance matrix) of the standardized variables (y-mean/sd) was then used to examine which variables at the site scale were most highly associated with specific macroinvertebrate and fish responses for each scenario
What was entropy reduction used to determine?
entropy reduction was used to determine which variables were the most influential in terms of their impact on macroinvertebrates and fish at the regional scale
prior to running the bbn, pearson's correlation coefficient was used to test for collinearity among all environmental variables (see table 1). to detect differences in the mean magnitude of change of macroinvertebrates and fish (averaged across all ehmp sites regional scale) between current climate and landuse conditions and the modelled future conditions for different scenarios, we used friedman tests followed by friedman a posteriori multiple comparison tests (conover 1999). entropy reduction was used to determine which variables were the most influential in terms of their impact on macroinvertebrates and fish at the regional scale. entropy reduction measures the sensitivity of changes in probabilities of response variables (i.e. macroinvertebrate taxa richness and fish species richness) when parameters and inputs were changed within the bbn (marcot 2006). for each scenario output, sites were divided into five groups based on their magnitude of change in macroinvertebrate taxa richness or fish species richness (see fig. 3). mean change in variables was calculated for each macroinvertebrate and fish group across sites. principal components analysis (pca, based on a covariance matrix) of the standardized variables (y-mean/sd) was then used to examine which variables at the site scale were most highly associated with specific macroinvertebrate and fish responses for each scenario. only those environmental variables directly linked to each climate change, urban growth or climate change urban growth scenario were included in each pca. for example, under a climate change scenario, the variables rainfall variability, precipitation, air temperature, runoff, water temperature and nutrients were included in the pca, whereas all other variables remained constants and were therefore excluded. in contrast, under an urban growth scenario, the variables impervious cover, nitrogen, phosphorus, runoff and nutrients were included in the pca, whereas all other variables were excluded as constants.
How much of Canada's landmass is covered by forests?
almost half of canada's landmass
What is the reason for shifts in tree phenology and distribution in Canada?
a 1degc increase in temperature over the last century
What would enhance the longer growing season?
forest growth
forests cover almost half of canada's landmass, and are a key feature of our country's society, culture and economy. climate change has the potential to greatly influence our country's forests, since even small changes in temperature and precipitation can significantly affect forest growth and survival. for example, a 1degc increase in temperature over the last century in canada has been associated with longer growing seasons, increased plant growth, shifts in tree phenology and distribution, and changes in plant hardiness zones. future climate change is expected to affect species distribution, forest productivity and disturbance regimes. understanding the forestry sector's vulnerability to these changes is essential for forest management planning. the impacts of climate change on forests would vary regionally, and would be influenced by several factors, including species composition, site conditions and local microclimate. for example, tree species differ significantly in their ability to adapt to warming, their response to elevated co2 concentrations and their tolerance to disturbances. the age-class structure of forests is another important control on how forests respond to changes in climate. in general, forest growth would be enhanced by longer growing seasons, warmer temperatures and elevated co2 concentrations. these benefits, however, could be offset by associated increases in moisture stress, ecosystem
what did MacGarvin Simmonds comment eleven years ago?
eleven years ago macgarvin simmonds (1996) considered the likely impacts of climate change on cetaceans and commented that 'amongst the many environmental threats faced by cetacean populations the most speculative, and yet perhaps potentially the most important, concern the implications for them of changes in atmosphere and climate
what they suggested?
they suggested that cetaceans would be affected by changes in their prey both in terms of productivity and shifts in distribution of prey species, and that negative effects at the base of marine food webs could be created by changes in water temperature, turbulence and surface salinity
what other other related issues did they highlight?
they highlighted five other related issues: (1) the rate of climate change is outside the evolutionary experience of existing cetacean species. (2) many whale
eleven years ago macgarvin simmonds (1996) considered the likely impacts of climate change on cetaceans and commented that 'amongst the many environmental threats faced by cetacean populations the most speculative, and yet perhaps potentially the most important, concern the implications for them of changes in atmosphere and climate'. they suggested that cetaceans would be affected by changes in their prey both in terms of productivity and shifts in distribution of prey species, and that negative effects at the base of marine food webs could be created by changes in water temperature, turbulence and surface salinity. they highlighted five other related issues: (1) the rate of climate change is outside the evolutionary experience of existing cetacean species. (2) many whale
Who acknowledged the flood analysis model?
pablo suarez is acknowledged for his programming of parts of the flood analysis model
Whose data analysis was invaluable?
the data analysis by james horwitz of binary systems, inc. was invaluable
whose comments were helpful?
the comments of two anonymous reviewers and jim titus were very helpful
acknowledgements this research benefited from fruitful discussions with our research partners at boston university, william anderson and t.l lakshmanan. pablo suarez is acknowledged for his programming of parts of the flood analysis model. the data analysis by james horwitz of binary systems, inc. was invaluable. we also appreciate the helpful comments of richard vogel of tufts university, martin pillsbury and judy alland of the metropolitan area planning council, joe pelaczarski of massachusetts coastal zone management, richard zingarelli of the massachusetts department of environmental management, jim o ' connell of woods hole oceanographic institute, and david vine of nucci vine associates, inc. we also appreciate the cooperation of the new england district of the us army corps of engineers, and the federal emergency management agency. the comments of two anonymous reviewers and jim titus were very helpful. communications with james neumann and gary yohe are appreciated. although the research described in this paper has been funded wholly or in part by the us environmental protection agency through grant number r827450-01-0 to tufts university, it has not been subjected to the agency ' s required peer and policy review and therefore does not necessarily reflect the views of the agency and no official endorsement should be inferred.
Who is Kollmuss and Agyeman? Are they authors, psychologists, researchers?
however, as noted by kollmuss and agyeman,15none of these models overcome
What is the different between these 3 models?
such as hines, hungerford, and tomera's35 model of responsible environmental behavior
Please give examples of available options.
available options, and other psychological barriers
other, more sophisticated, models have also been proposed, such as hines, hungerford, and tomera's35 model of responsible environmental behavior, among others.36-38however, as noted by kollmuss and agyeman,15none of these models overcome the fact that associations between knowledge and attitudes, attitudes and intentions, and proenvironmental behavior are weak. this suggests that behavior is also determined by external, or situational, factors, such as economic constraints, available options, and other psychological barriers.18,35when attempts are made to include a broader or even complete set of influences on proenvironmental choices made by people, the model becomes very complex. the most comprehensive model, which links psychological influences with those from other social
Which region have these researchers chosen to study?
we have chosen to study the central san joaquin valley of california and the adjacent highlands
What is the elevation of the valley floor?
the elevation of the valley floor in our study region ranges from 30 to 140 m
What percentage of precipitation falls from November to April in the Mediterranean climate?
in this mediterranean climate, over 90% of the precipitation falls from november to april
we have chosen to study the central san joaquin valley of california and the adjacent highlands. the 100-km-wide valley is oriented se to nw with the sierra nevada rising to a 4000-m crest about 100 km ne of and parallel to the eastern edge of the valley. the elevation of the valley floor in our study region ranges from 30 to 140 m. the coast range assumes the western border but reaches elevations of only 1500 m along a few se to nw trending ridges. this range is tall enough to affect a rainshadow on the western side of the valley. in this mediterranean climate, over 90% of the precipitation falls from november to april, with annual totals in the valley between 10 cm on the western side and 30 cm on the eastern side, while may through october is essentially precipitation free. orography enhances the precipitation in the sierra nevada where annual totals, much falling as snow, can exceed 125 cm of liquid equivalent. prior to the late nineteenth century, the valley was a vast plain, called by some the serengeti of north america, watered in the spring by flooding rivers from the snowmelt of the sierra nevada. during summer and fall the valley becomes desert like, with clear skies and average daily maxima above 37degc in july. since the late nineteenth century, agricultural interests sought to bring into phase the spring runoff and the abundant summer and fall sunshine to optimize the growing potential for literally hundreds of varieties of crops. initially, small diversion projects redirected the flow of the few rivers with summer runoff onto nearby fields for on-demand irrigation. during the 1940s- 1960s, the bureau of reclamation, army corps of engineers, state of california, and local water use associations built major reservoirs, to hold back the spring runoff, and distribution systems (canals) for conveyance on demand. these simple gravity-delivery systems carry water to locations over 100 km from the impoundments.
What is the warming trend for the entire globe?
the warming trend for the entire globe (1850 to 2005) is 0.04degc decade-1
When a specific warming period started?
a specific warming period started around 1980 and continues until the present
What was revealed by a detailed study of climate variability and the associated impact on the Baltic Sea area for the period 1958 to 2009?
a detailed study of climate variability and the associated impact on the baltic sea area for the period 1958 to 2009 revealed that the recent changes in the warming trend are associated with changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation over the north atlantic
the warming trend for the entire globe (1850 to 2005) is 0.04degc decade-1. a specific warming period started around 1980 and continues until the present. this warming also occurred in the baltic sea catchment, which lies between maritime temperate and continental subarctic climate zones. a detailed study of climate variability and the associated impact on the baltic sea area for the period 1958 to 2009 revealed that the recent changes in the warming trend are associated with changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation over the north atlantic. the number and pathways of deep cyclones changed considerably in line with an eastward shift of the north atlantic oscillation centers of action. there is a seasonal shift of strong wind events from autumn to winter and early spring. since the late 1980s, the winter season (djfm, i.e. december to march) of the baltic sea area has tended to be warmer, with less ice coverage and warmer sea surface temperatures, especially pronounced in the northern parts of the baltic sea. there is a tendency for increased cloud cover and precipitation in regions that are exposed to westerlies and less cloud coverage at the leeward side of the scandinavian mountains and over the baltic sea basin. key words: baltic sea * nao * climate variability
What does the adaptation literature acknowledge?
the difficulties involved in effectively accounting for adaptation in vulnerability studies
What do addressing these questions require?
effective collaboration with stakeholders, a strong understanding of the system and region being studied, and knowledge of potential adaptation options
What do recent Canadian examples of adaptation research include?
the work of de loe et al.,(28)who investigated criteria for identifying appropriate adaptation options, and smit and skinner,(31)who presented a typology of adaptation options for agriculture
addressing these questions requires effective collaboration with stakeholders, a strong understanding of the system and region being studied, and knowledge of potential adaptation options. recent canadian examples of adaptation research include the work of de loe et al.,(28)who investigated criteria for identifying appropriate adaptation options, and smit and skinner,(31)who presented a typology of adaptation options for agriculture. another study examined factors influencing adaptation decisions at the municipal level see box 5). the adaptation literature also acknowledges the difficulties involved in effectively accounting for adaptation in vulnerability studies. there are many different and interacting factors that influence the response of humans and ecosystems to stress. evaluation of adaptation must extend beyond "is adaptation possible?" to also include "is adaptation probable?" in other words, are people both able and willing to adapt? additional research into the factors that affect the feasibility, effectiveness, cost and acceptability of adaptation options is recommended.(23)
What are the four dimensions of response to climate change?
agency capacity, partnerships and education, adaptation, and, mitigation and sustainable consumption
What are the first five kinds of actions addressed?
1. educate employees 2. designate climate change coordinators 3. develop program guidance and training partnerships and education 4. integrate science and management 5. develop partnerships and alliances adaptation
What are the latter five kinds of actions?
6. assess vulnerability 7. set priorities 8. monitor change mitigation and sustainable consumption 9. assess and manage carbon 10. reduce environmental footprint
four dimensions of response to climate change (agency capacity, partnerships and education, adaptation, and, mitigation and sustainable consumption) from the national roadmap for responding to climate change (usda fs 2010c) are addressed by 10 specific kinds of action. the performance scorecard (usda fs 2010a) has a series of questions to assist national forests in deter mining if those actions are being accomplished. agency capacity 1. educate employees 2. designate climate change coordinators 3. develop program guidance and training partnerships and education 4. integrate science and management 5. develop partnerships and alliances adaptation 6. assess vulnerability 7. set priorities 8. monitor change mitigation and sustainable consumption 9. assess and manage carbon 10. reduce environmental footprint
Where have there been less succesful experiments?
there have also been unsuccessful experiments in the private sector with catastrophic loss bonds and weather derivatives (labatt and white 2002
Where is there growing interest?
there is a growing interest in the potential of public involvement and public-private partnerships in insurance
Which link is there to support further insurance help when linked to climate events?
the link between climate change and extreme weather events is such that more attention to insurance in the climate arena seems an obvious and unavoidable opportunity
there is a growing interest in the potential of public involvement and public-private partnerships in insurance. there is already some preliminary bank work in this area. an example is the earthquake catastrophic loss pool established by the government of turkey with bank assistance. (gurenko in mathur et. al. eds. 2004). there have also been unsuccessful experiments in the private sector with catastrophic loss bonds and weather derivatives (labatt and white 2002). these and other initiatives have mostly sprung from the natural disaster area and have yet to be examined in terms of their relevance for climate change. (burton and yohe 2003). the link between climate change and extreme weather events is such that more attention to insurance in the climate arena seems an obvious and unavoidable opportunity. for the world bank it could be interesting to explore this angle in the context of its work on risk transfer and risk pooling, including the work in turkey and elsewhere.
Surface velocities measured by DGPS in summer 2004 are characterized by?
a pattern of increasing motion with distance from the terminus, up to a maximum of >200 m a-1close to concordia
What contribute to the ice flux?
local velocity increases are also observed, in particular where main tributaries
cross-profiles at Gore I and Urdukas extend close to what?
glacier margin
surface velocities measured by dgps in summer 2004 are characterized by a pattern of increasing motion with distance from the terminus, up to a maximum of >200 m a-1close to concordia (fig. 7; table 2). further up-glacier, measured surface displacements decrease markedly on both tributaries of the main baltoro tongue, with a reduction in flow of >50% within 3.6 km upstream of concordia. local velocity increases are also observed, in particular where main tributaries (e.g. biarchedi and yermanendu glaciers; fig. 1) contribute to the ice flux. cross-profiles acquired at concordia, on the baltoro south tributary and on the godwin austen tributary, are restricted to the central part of the glacier and therefore exhibit little lateral variability. in contrast, cross-profiles at gore i and urdukas extend close to the glacier margin, where the surface velocities are shown to be 40-50% lower than ice velocities in the middle of the glacier  70 m a-1
What is ignored by range-shift projections?
most previous range-shift projections have ignored dispersal
What it leads to Assumptions of unlimited dispersal?
assumptions of unlimited dispersal generally lead to overestimates of potential future range expansions and underestimates of potential range contractions
most previous range-shift projections have ignored dispersal. our results indicate that species-speci fi c dispersal is extremely important to include in range-shift projections. assumptions of unlimited dispersal generally lead to overestimates of potential future range expansions and underestimates of potential range contractions. our models indicate that 58% of range expansions projected with the assumption of unlimited dispersal will likely be range contractions when dispersal limitations are taken into account si appendix ). furthermore, dispersal velocities vary by order and the failure to incorporate dispersal has more of an impact on the range-shift projections for species that are less able to expand into newly suitable climate such as primates and eulipotyphla si appendix ).
The Twitter Revolutions of 2009 reinvigorated the question of?
whether new social media have any real effect on contentious politics
the authors argue that evaluating the relation between transforming communication technologies and
collective action demands recognizing how such technologies infuse specific protest ecologies
The year 2009 was the year social media moved to the front line in a variety of national and transnational protests. Activists, police, and mass media announced
their intent to step up use of social technology to coordinate, communicate, and monitor the g20 london summit protests
the twitter revolutions of 2009 reinvigorated the question of whether new social media have any real effect on contentious politics. in this article, the authors argue that evaluating the relation between transforming communication technologies and collective action demands recognizing how such technologies infuse specific protest ecologies. this includes looking beyond informational functions to the role of social media as organizing mechanisms and recognizing that traces of these media may reflect larger organizational schemes. three points become salient in the case of twitter against this background: (a) twitter streams represent crosscutting networking mechanisms in a protest ecology, (b) they embed and are embedded in various kinds of gatekeeping processes, and (c) they reflect changing dynamics in the ecology over time. the authors illustrate their argument with reference to two hashtags used in the protests around the 2009 united nations climate summit in copenhagen. the year 2009 was the year social media moved to the front line in a variety of national and transnational protests. activists, police, and mass media announced their intent to step up use of social technology to coordinate, communicate, and monitor the g20 london summit protests (ward, 2009); evgeny mozorov commented on "moldova's twitter revolution" (mozorov, 2009a); and soon it was proclaimed that the iranian revolution would be
What kind of risk did Americans as a whole perceive global climate change to be?
americans as a whole perceived global climate change as a moderate risk (figure 1). on average, americans were somewhat concerned about global warming, believed that impacts on worldwide standards of living, water shortages and rates of serious disease are somewhat likely and that the impacts will be more pronounced on nonhuman nature. importantly, however, they were less concerned about local impacts, rating these as somewhat unlikely
The moderate level of public concern about climate change appears to be driven by what perception?
the moderate level of public concern about climate change thus appears to be driven primarily by the perception of danger to geographically and temporally distant people, places and non-human nature
What question was asked in order to conclude the results about public concern over climate change?
this conclusion is supported by the results of a separate question that asked respondents to indicate which scale of climate change impacts was of greatest concern to them (table i). the question asked, "which of the following are you most concerned about? the impacts of global warming on (1) you and your family; (2) your local community; (3) the u.s. as a whole; (4) people all over the world; (5) non-human nature; or, (6) not at all concerned
americans as a whole perceived global climate change as a moderate risk (figure 1). on average, americans were somewhat concerned about global warming, believed that impacts on worldwide standards of living, water shortages and rates of serious disease are somewhat likely and that the impacts will be more pronounced on nonhuman nature. importantly, however, they were less concerned about local impacts, rating these as somewhat unlikely. the moderate level of public concern about climate change thus appears to be driven primarily by the perception of danger to geographically and temporally distant people, places and non-human nature. this conclusion is supported by the results of a separate question that asked respondents to indicate which scale of climate change impacts was of greatest concern to them (table i). the question asked, "which of the following are you most concerned about? the impacts of global warming on (1) you and your family; (2) your local community; (3) the u.s. as a whole; (4) people all over the world; (5) non-human nature; or, (6) not at all concerned."
What this study evaluates?
this study evaluates the tropical intraseasonal variability, and especially the fidelity of mjo simulations, in 14 ipcc ar4 coupled gcms
For what is used space-time spectral analysis?
space-time spectral analysis is used to obtain the variance and phase speed of dominant convectively coupled equatorial waves, including the mjo, kelvin, er, mrg, eig, and wig waves
What show the results?
the results show that current state-of-the-art gcms still have significant problems and display a wide range of skill in simulating the tropical intraseasonal variability
this study evaluates the tropical intraseasonal variability, and especially the fidelity of mjo simulations, in 14 ipcc ar4 coupled gcms. eight years of daily precipitation data from each model's twentieth-century climate simulation are analyzed and compared with daily satellite-retrieved precipitation. space-time spectral analysis is used to obtain the variance and phase speed of dominant convectively coupled equatorial waves, including the mjo, kelvin, er, mrg, eig, and wig waves. the variance and propagation of the mjo, defined as the eastward wavenumber 1-6, 30-70-day mode, are examined in detail. the results show that current state-of-the-art gcms still have significant problems and display a wide range of skill in simulating the tropical intraseasonal variability. the total intraseasonal (2-128 day) variance of precipitation is too weak in most of the models. about half of the models have signals of convectively coupled equatorial waves, with kelvin and mrg-eig waves especially prominent. however, the variances are generally too weak for all wave modes except the eig
Define barotropic vorticity equation?
for the barotropic vorticity equation the classic arakawa jacobian could be retrieved by equally weighting the cyclic permutations of the nambu bracket. in other terms, arakawa found heuristically a discrete nambu representation of barotropic dynamics dubinkina and frank 2007
Define GFD codes?
in recent years, various authors have provided promising examples of actual implementations of gfd codes which take into explicit consideration the underlying nambu dynamics of the unforced and inviscid case
Define stepping
various options are available for the time stepping is arbitrary; sommer and n'evir (2009) use a leap-frog with robert-asselin filter
salmon (2005, 2007) recognized that the existence of a nambu bracket with two conserved integrals allows the design of high-precision numerical algorithms for studying geophysical flows. the idea is in fact simple: just like in the usual case we aim at writing numerical codes able to conserve energy when dissipation and forcing are neglected, nambu mechanism provides encouragement and conceptual support for expanding this point of view by encompassing other important physical quantities. the approach is useful in gfd turbulence simulations because these flows are characterized by the existence of conservation laws besides total energy. in particular, the conservation of enstrophy inhibits spurious accumulation of energy at small scales. for the numerical design of conservative codes based on a nambu structure the following remarks are noted: * a nambu form of the continuous physical system is required. * the quantities used in the nambu bracket are conserved. * the discrete form of the jacobian needs to preserve antisymmetry (11). * the approach is applicable to any kind of discretization, e.g. for finite differences, finite volumes, or spectral models. * arbitrary approximations of the conservation laws are possible; these approximations are conserved exactly. * for the barotropic vorticity equation the classic arakawa jacobian could be retrieved by equally weighting the cyclic permutations of the nambu bracket. in other terms, arakawa found heuristically a discrete nambu representation of barotropic dynamics dubinkina and frank 2007). in recent years, various authors have provided promising examples of actual implementations of gfd codes which take into explicit consideration the underlying nambu dynamics of the unforced and inviscid case. salmon (2007) presents the first numerical simulation of a shallow water model derived from the nambu brackets formalism. the simulation is on a square rectangular grid and the design on an unstructured triangular mesh is outlined. sommer and n'evir (2009) report the first simulation of a shallow water atmosphere using nambu brackets. the authors use an isosahedric grid (as in the icon model, icosahedric non-hydrostatic model, of the german weather service and the max planck institute for meteorology, hamburg). the construction of the algorithm is as follows sommer and n'evir 2009): 1. first the continuous versions of the nambubrackets and conservation laws need to be obtained. 2. on the grid, the following expressions need to be calculated: functional derivatives, discrete operators (div and curl), discretization of the jacobian and the nambu brackets. 3. finally, the prognostic equations are obtained by inserting the variables in the brackets. various options are available for the time stepping is arbitrary; sommer and n'evir (2009) use a leap-frog with robert-asselin filter. 8
What is fire frequency?
fire has a role in ecosystem services; naturally produced wildfires are important for the sustainability of many terrestrial biomes and fire is one of nature's primary carbon-cycling mechanisms. under a warming climate, it is likely that fire frequency and severity will increase
Define Western U.S. forests?
there is some evidence that fire activity may already be increasing in western u.s. forests and recent exceptionally intense fire events, such as the australian black saturday fires in 2009 and russian fires in 2010, highlight the devastation of fires associated with extreme weather
Describe global atmospheric chemistry?
the impacts of emissions from fires on global atmospheric chemistry, and on the atmospheric burden of greenhouse gases and aerosols are recognized although gaps remain in our scientific understanding of the processes involved and the environmental consequences of fires. while significant uncertainty remains in the long-term impacts of forest fires on climate, new sophisticated tools have recently become available (observational and modeling). these tools provide insight into changing wildfires
fire has a role in ecosystem services; naturally produced wildfires are important for the sustainability of many terrestrial biomes and fire is one of nature's primary carbon-cycling mechanisms. under a warming climate, it is likely that fire frequency and severity will increase. there is some evidence that fire activity may already be increasing in western u.s. forests and recent exceptionally intense fire events, such as the australian black saturday fires in 2009 and russian fires in 2010, highlight the devastation of fires associated with extreme weather. the impacts of emissions from fires on global atmospheric chemistry, and on the atmospheric burden of greenhouse gases and aerosols are recognized although gaps remain in our scientific understanding of the processes involved and the environmental consequences of fires. while significant uncertainty remains in the long-term impacts of forest fires on climate, new sophisticated tools have recently become available (observational and modeling). these tools provide insight into changing wildfires
which figure presents the curve of the gravity solids flux??
figure 10.16a presents the curve of the gravity solids flux (gg c.v
The construction of the solids flux curves is presented in which sections?
the construction of the solids flux curves is presented in sections 10.5.3 and 10.5.5. 440 basic principles of wastewater treatment
high concentration of c however, after a certain value of c, the reduction in the settling velocity v is such that the product c.v starts to decrease. figure 10.16a presents the curve of the gravity solids flux (gg c.v). the intercept of the straight line with slope qu/a, tangent to the descending reach of the flux curve, with the y-axis characterises the limiting flux (gl). this can be understood as the maximum flux that can be transported to the bottom of the sedimentation tank with the existing settleability, sludge concentration and underflow. the same interpretation can be obtained from figure 10.16b, in which the total flux (gt gg gu) is presented. the result is the same, but in this case, the limiting flux is obtained at the minimum of the total flux curve. this point of minimum indicates that, while the solids concentration increases in the settling tanks from the inlet to the bottom, there will be a concentration (limiting concentration cl) that will bring about the lowest flux (limiting flux gl). at this point, the settling tank is limited and cannot transmit to the bottom a quantity of solids higher than the limiting value. the construction of the solids flux curves is presented in sections 10.5.3 and 10.5.5. 440 basic principles of wastewater treatment
Where have new problems of horizontal coordination have become apparent?
berlin
Why have institutional reforms become prerequisite?
in order to perform such cross-sectoral energy and climate policy tasks more successfully in the future
it has rarely been possible to commit whom to economic and environmental policy objectives?
energy utilities or regional housing companies and other industries
one of the main problems is that the need for policy integration has increased considerably, since the management of energy efficiency in numerous demand sectors and the promotion of a renewable and more efficient energy supply have become overarching policy priorities. correlating with this need to integrate energy and climate policy issues into other policy fields, new problems of horizontal coordination have become apparent in berlin. even if the formal competencies for energy planning are with the energy task force in the environmental department, the main institutional resources to implement the issues of sustainable energy management are compartmentalized in different departments such as economic policy, financial policy, housing and building policy, research policy, etc. these policy fields have in many cases competing objectives to, and different priorities from, energy and climate policy and they compete for power rather than cooperate to tackle energy and climate policy issues. for example, the promotion of ecopreneurs is still perceived to be exclusively the responsibility of environmental policy. it is not yet closely linked to policy initiatives for regional business development, for the promotion of r&d activities, for energy management in public buildings etc. thus, the economic and ecological potentials of a comprehensive market development strategy have not been fully achieved so far. in order to perform such cross-sectoral energy and climate policy tasks more successfully in the future, institutional reforms become prerequisite. these reforms encompass an empowerment of energy planning authorities via the extension of their formal competencies and their financial and personal resources, but also the improvement of inter-policy coordination via the establishment of inter-ministerial working groups. secondly, the need for regional cooperation in energy policy across territorial boundaries has grown considerably during the last decade. on the one hand this is because the former public utility companies are operating beyond the territorial scope of the city government. hence, political influence on the utilities' policy could be exerted more efficiently if coordinated with the energy policy of the neighboring land brandenburg. on the other hand, structural policy strategies for the promotion of innovation and business development in the energy sector are more efficient if they are based on functional economic spaces in a regional context cf benz et al. 2000; heeg, 2001). such new forms of regional governance can serve the further economic development and competitiveness of a region as well as supporting social and environmental innovation. however, energy and climate policies in berlin and brandenburg continue so far to be focused on their own respective territories, strictly separated from each other, and they scarcely reflect the economic and functional interdependencies in the region. the challenge is therefore to come to an agreement on common political aims and strategies via the establishment of inter-lander coordinating bodies, and to expand the project-oriented cooperation of the two lander in the promotion of socio-technological innovation. thirdly, the need for the mobilization of private initiatives and for public-private partnerships has increased significantly and the provision of public services has in many cases been delegated to the private sector. with respect to this, the environmental department in berlin has extended its cooperation with ecopreneurs and their professional associations and has provided institutional support for their private selforganization in different ways. however, the continual improvement of regional locational conditions for ecopreneurs via the promotion of regional networks for information, cooperation and communication and the opening up of new markets via the development of quality standards and regional marketing strategies will continue to be key challenges for regional policy. whereas these public-private partnerships with ecopreneurs, whose economic interests are highly compatible with energy and climate policy issues, have contributed to regional sustainability, it has rarely been possible to commit either the energy utilities or regional housing companies and other industries to economic and environmental policy objectives. their compliance with voluntary agreements and other contractual arrangements could in many cases not be ensured, and the electricity utility in particular has been reluctant to contribute to regional energy
Explain about climate policy implications ?
this study analyzes climate policy implications in the context of globalization by means of the energy-economy-climate model remind-r. in determining regional mitigation costs and the technological development in the energy sector, remindr considers the feedbacks of investment and trade decisions of regions that are linked by global markets
How policy regimes are primarily differentiated ?
the analyzed policy regimes are primarily differentiated by their allocation of emission rights. moreover, they represent alternative designs of an international cap trade system that is geared to meet the 2*c climate target
Describe ambitious climate protection scenarios?
the present study analyzes ambitious climate protection scenarios that require drastic reduction policies (reductions of 70%-80% globally until 2050). immediate and multilateral action is needed in such scenarios. given the rather small variance of mitigation costs in major regions like uca, europe, mea and china, a policy regime should be chosen that provides high incentives to join an international agreement for the remaining regions
this study analyzes climate policy implications in the context of globalization by means of the energy-economy-climate model remind-r. in determining regional mitigation costs and the technological development in the energy sector, remindr considers the feedbacks of investment and trade decisions of regions that are linked by global markets. the analyzed policy regimes are primarily differentiated by their allocation of emission rights. moreover, they represent alternative designs of an international cap trade system that is geared to meet the 2*c climate target. the following conclusions can be drawn: * ambitious climate targets that meet the 2*c climate target with high likelihood can be reached with costs amounting to approx. 1.5% of the global gross product; this roughly confirms cost estimates of low stabilization scenarios from earlier studies based on global models (edenhofer et al., 2006). this number, however, can halve or double within a quite narrow range of climate sensitivity variation. * the regional burden of emission reductions considerably varies with the particular designs of a post-2012 climate policy regime; however, the variance of mitigation costs between the regions is higher than between the policy regimes. 32 * regions with high shares in trade of fossil resources (mea and russia) bear highest costs, while africa can considerably benefit from an integration into a global emissions trading system. the present study analyzes ambitious climate protection scenarios that require drastic reduction policies (reductions of 70%-80% globally until 2050). immediate and multilateral action is needed in such scenarios. given the rather small variance of mitigation costs in major regions like uca, europe, mea and china, a policy regime should be chosen that provides high incentives to join an international agreement for the remaining regions. from this perspective either the contraction convergence scenario (incentive for russia) is preferable or the multi-stage approach (incentive for africa and india). as usual, all results are only valid within the framework of the assumptions made. in the current context, we in particular assume perfect markets and perfect intertemporal foresight. both slightly tend to decrease the mitigation costs by optimally investing in most promising long-term mitigation measures based on optimal trade flows. however, for the regions with high shares in resources trade mitigation costs could be overestimated by the model due to the fact that the reference scenario accounts for too optimistic trade volumes. trade losses in the fossilconstrained policy scenario rise consequently. additional experiments furthermore show that with the assumption of lower fossil resource availability mitigation costs decrease significantly. from the analysis of the technology development in the energy sector it turns out that the regions follow quite different strategies. however, while the mitigation costs estimates are robust against variations of input parameters, the regional energy mix is sensitive. more research is needed to integrate further technologies (e.g. electric vehicles in the transport sector) and to systematically investigate to which degree and which costs major carbon-free technologies can be substituted by each other. first experiments in this direction indicate that doing without nuclear energy is not costly, but forgoing the ccs option will increase the mitigation costs substantially.
One area where the need for adaptation may be immediate is
the kilimanjaro ecosystem
climatic changes are likely already contributing to?
impacts on the natural and human system
the distribution of this aid by
development sector and by donor
one area where the need for adaptation may be immediate is the kilimanjaro ecosystem where climatic changes are likely already contributing to significant impacts on the natural and human system, including the intensification of fire risk, in part a consequence of observed changes in temperature and precipitation patterns, and to a lesser extent the retreat of the ice cap. the causes and implications of these impacts, as well as potential responses to them and the potential synergies and conflicts with environmental and development priorities are investigated in-depth later in section 8. 5. attention to climate concerns in donor activities tanzania receives large amounts of donor aid, in the order of one billion us$ per year, which is tanzania receives large amounts of donor aid, in the order of one billion us$ per year, which is equivalent to about 11% of its gni. the largest donors, in terms of overall investments, are the world com/env/epoc/dcd/dac(2003)5/final 20 20 bank (ida), japan, and the united kingdom. figure 5 displays the distribution of this aid by development sector and by donor.
What populations can explode in temperature bands?
insect populations can explode in certain conditions, including particular temperature bands
When sudden death spread to more than 280 sites within months in England?
when sudden oak death spread from oregon and california to britain, it spread to more than 280 sites within months in england
What are three things the infestations affect?
such infestations may well affect our health, timber sources and the structures of our buildings
insect populations can explode in certain conditions, including particular temperature bands. the smallest of animals can cause severe impacts. when such infestations strike they spread very rapidly; when sudden oak death spread from oregon and california to britain, it spread to more than 280 sites within months in england. 12 the same is true of moulds and fungi, which can have a devastating effect on people and buildings, as can termites, spreading north from devon even now with the warming weather, and mosquitoes that are now found in parts of kent. such infestations may well affect our health, timber sources and the structures of our buildings. more free ebooks http://fast-file.blogspot.com
What is the most important variable component of population forecasts?
migration is the most important variable component of the population forecasts
What is the fit of the OFM's migration model compared to the actual net migration for 1978-2008?
a historical comparison of the actual and fitted net migration for 1978-2008 using ofm's migration model found an r2 of 0.91, indicating reasonably good agreement
How are the Washington State population forecasts developed?
washington state population forecasts are developed from a cohort component demographic forecast model that accounts for births, deaths and net migration
projected county population estimates by age group were obtained from the washington office of financial management for the years 20052030 (ofm 2008b). in predicting future excess deaths during extreme heat events, population was held constant at 2025 projected estimates, allowing differences in excess deaths between years to be interpreted as the component due to climate change. for the analysis of excess deaths related to ozone concentrations, calculated total and age-group populations were calculated by extending the office of financial management linear projections to 2045 through 2054. washington state population forecasts are developed from a cohort component demographic forecast model that accounts for births, deaths and net migration. projected births are derived from a natural change model component of the childbearing population, applying historical trends in fertility rates by county. annual deaths, in terms of life expectancy generally follow national trends, and survival expectations are adjusted to follow social security administration projections in 2007. migration is the most important variable component of the population forecasts. the state's future net migration is based on an econometric model where washington's relative attractiveness to job seekers is weighed against the attractiveness of california and other state destinations. a historical comparison of the actual and fitted net migration for 1978-2008 using ofm's migration model found an r2 of 0.91, indicating reasonably good agreement.
When does the largest change in temperature for all model simulations occurs?
the winter months
The largest differences in the climate models occur when?
during winter
How are the ranges between models during summer months?.
low
ensemble of delta approach simulations results from the rcm ensemble of delta approach hydrological simulations for the total lule river are shown in figures 2 and 3. figure 2 presents both the climate model meteorological changes interpreted with the delta approach and the resulting impacts on river discharge. although all of the models exhibit similar seasonal dynamics for 2 m temperature, they differ from each other some 1-2oc throughout the year (figure 2a). most of the simulations correspond to an annual increase of 4 to 5oc. the hadam3h-a2 driving gcm exhibits the warmest trend for summer and autumn temperatures, but does not stand out during the rest of the year. the largest change in temperature for all model simulations occurs in the winter months. although this change occurs at mean temperatures well below zero, one should keep in mind that these are average values in both time and space over the entire basin and do not exclude the occurrence of increased snowmelt for different parts of the basin during some years. all simulations project an increase of precipitation throughout the year for the lule river basin (figure 2b). the largest increases are during autumn and winter for most of the simulations. the largest differences in the climate models also occur during winter. the range between models during summer months is low. river discharge results from all of the delta simulations are shown together in figure 2c. the remaining plots in figure 2 show river discharge results according to similar driving
What is the plot of the movie An Inconvenient Truth?
an inconvenient truth emphasizes the seriousness of the global climate crisis, argues that it can be solved with present and foreseeable technology, and says that all citizens can play a meaningful role in the solution
Did the movie offer many solutions to the global climate crisis?
the film spent only its last few minutes on mainly technological solutions. specific individual and household actions appeared only briefly, superimposed on the credits at the end of the film
Who is the creator of the movie An Inconvenient Truth?
al gore
available information: mixed signals the media information most readily available to the american public today does little to counteract the idea that saving energy is mainly about curtailment. further, this information is not in a form that is likely to lead to action. for example, al gore's well-known movie an inconvenient truth emphasizes the seriousness of the global climate crisis, argues that it can be solved with present and foreseeable technology, and says that all citizens can play a meaningful role in the solution. but it does not offer more. the film spent only its last few minutes on mainly technological solutions. specific individual and household actions appeared only briefly, superimposed on the credits at the end of the film. given interest-driven campaigns to minimize the threat, messages about the seriousness of the problem may be important to motivate people to act rather than deny the threat, but such messages have a poor track record of producing measurable behavioral change by themselves.11
What is the main mechanism for raising the level of ambition in the climate regime?
the main mechanism for raising the level of ambition in the climate regime will be a regular review of progress made towards the agreement's temperature goal
When is the first formal review, referred to in the agreement as the 'global stocktake', scheduled for?
the first formal review, referred to in the agreement as the 'global stocktake' (article 14(1)), is scheduled for 2023, with subsequent iterations every five years thereafter
What is the outcome of these reviews meant to do?
the outcome of these reviews is meant to inform parties as they formulate future ndcs, with a view to 'updating and enhancing' their pledges (article 14(3
the main mechanism for raising the level of ambition in the climate regime will be a regular review of progress made towards the agreement's temperature goal. a first interim review, known as the 'facilitative dialogue', will take place in 2018, prior to the agreement's expected entry into force. the first formal review, referred to in the agreement as the 'global stocktake' (article 14(1)), is scheduled for 2023, with subsequent iterations every five years thereafter. the outcome of these reviews is meant to inform parties as they formulate future ndcs, with a view to 'updating and enhancing' their pledges (article 14(3)). by establishing a system of mandatory national reporting, which includes information on national emissions by sources and removals of ghgs by carbon sinks, the paris agreement makes transparency a key regulatory instrument aimed at building trust between the parties and enabling them to review the implementation of national pledges (article 13). in a second major break with the regulatory approach of the kyoto protocol, the paris agreement includes all countries in its mitigation effort. whereas the kyoto treaty placed obligations to reduce emissions only on the annex i (industrialized) countries, the new agreement obliges all emitters to take nationally determined action to limit global warming. first foreshadowed in the copenhagen accord of 2009, this new inclusiveness represents a major advance in the international climate negotiations, which have hitherto been characterized by a deep north-south divide over how to interpret the unfccc principle of 'common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities'.29 the paris agreement still retains a degree of differentiation, which helped secure the
What is the difference between WTP1 and WTP2?
the difference between wtp1 and wtp2 was found to be statistically significant at the one percent level while the difference between wtp1t and wtp2t was significant at the five percent level
What were the respondents of the first WTP question told?
when respondents were asked the first wtp question, they were told to keep their own perceptions of likelihood of achieving a global co-operation in mind while answering this question
What was the objective of the second WTP question?
this question was asked to detect those respondents who rejected the offered bid level solely due to their lack of confidence in achieving a broader global cooperation. therefore, this result implies that a significant proportion of respondents refused to pay because of their low perceptions of likelihood of a global co-operation
wtp1 (wtp1t) and wtp2 (wtp2t) were tested for their differences7. the difference between wtp1 and wtp2 was found to be statistically significant at the one percent level while the difference between wtp1t and wtp2t was significant at the five percent level. this result needs cautious interpretation. it is important to note that wtp1 (wtp1t does not reflect individual wtp for climate change mitigation without a global co-operation. when respondents were asked the first wtp question, they were told to keep their own perceptions of likelihood of achieving a global co-operation in mind while answering this question. the objective of the second wtp question was modest. this question was asked to detect those respondents who rejected the offered bid level solely due to their lack of confidence in achieving a broader global cooperation. therefore, this result implies that a significant proportion of respondents refused to pay because of their low perceptions of likelihood of a global co-operation. if this particular
Which had a higher median rich group, Kamenyanga or Kintinku?
for comparison, the household numbers in the medium rich group in kamenyanga were higher than those in kintinku
What three major social groups were identified for the study?
three major social groups were identified. these are: i) the rich mugh'wari/mugholi) ii) the medium rich group mubahu) iii) the poor group mutruki
Why is it important to look at resource maps for the study?
resource maps are important as it shows various resources available in the village in which peoples' livelihood depend on
results and discussion socio economic and environmental profiles of the study villages: village land resources resource maps are important as it shows various resources available in the village in which peoples' livelihood depend on. a village resource map figure 2 in kamenyanga village occupies 4480 hectares of land of which residential area is 920 ha, farm land is 1740 ha, grazing land 884 ha and 1016 ha is a village forest reserve area. kintinku village covers an area of 3600 ha, 792 ha is residential areas, 1368 ha is farm land, 1436 ha is grazing land and 4 ha is village forest reserve area figure 3. in terms of land resource (farmland) as well as forest cover, kamenyanga village seems to be in a better position than kintinku village and therefore communities are less vulnerable to impacts of cc v. wealth stratification in the study villages, three major social groups were identified. these are: i) the rich mugh'wari/mugholi) ii) the medium rich group mubahu) iii) the poor group mutruki) their proportions of the groups were provided by the local people as presented in table 1. generally the stratification of the surveyed villages indicated that the poor group embodying the largest number of households. the percentage of rich category is low in both villages which implies that a high level of vulnerability of communities in these villages (table 1). for comparison, the household numbers in the medium rich group in kamenyanga were higher than those in kintinku. parallel to that, kintinku led with the number of households in the poor group but also has a higher number of households falling in the rich group. based on the characteristics of the three wealthy groups, it implies that vulnerabilities and adaptive capacities among groups vary accordingly in the two villages studied.
When was the first comprehensive study of Canada's climate change and the impact on their transportation system?
in the late 1990s, andrey and snow(17)conducted a more comprehensive review of literature, as part of the canada country study
What was the conclusion of this study?
andrey and snow(17)concluded that it is difficult to generalize about the effects of climate change on canada's transportation system, since impacts are certain to vary by region and mode
What two types of regions were compared in the study?
some northern settlements and coastal regions would face serious challenges associated with changes in temperature and sea level, whereas milder winters would present some benefits for transportation in the more populated parts of canada
interest in the implications of climate change for transportation infrastructure and operations is growing internationally.(18, 19)the first general assessment of climate change impacts on transportation in canada was undertaken in the late 1980s,(20)and focused mainly on sensitivities and expert opinion. in the late 1990s, andrey and snow(17)conducted a more comprehensive review of literature, as part of the canada country study. andrey and snow(17)concluded that it is difficult to generalize about the effects of climate change on canada's transportation system, since impacts are certain to vary by region and mode. some northern settlements and coastal regions would face serious challenges associated with changes in temperature and sea level, whereas milder winters would present some benefits for transportation in the more populated parts of canada. all modes of transportation considered (automobile, truck, rail, air and coastal marine) were expected to face new challenges, as well as some reduced costs. andrey and snow(17)
What is the drawback of present modeling of fire occurrence?
presently the quantity of fuel consumed is not accurately represented in models
What are the factors that effects fuel consumptions?
fuel loads and fire severity both influence fuel consumption
What will happen if we increase fire activities ?
ncreasing fire activity could lead to a decrease in the fire return time interval potentially resulting in a decrease in the age of trees and the fuel consumption per area burned
the present modeling of fire occurrence and impacts has a number of limitations to be addressed as the scientific understanding of the processes involved develops. presently the quantity of fuel consumed is not accurately represented in models. fuel loads and fire severity both influence fuel consumption. increasing fire activity could lead to a decrease in the fire return time interval potentially resulting in a decrease in the age of trees and the fuel consumption per area burned. for example, an 18% reduction in the quantity of the fuel consumed in the western united states has been calculated, assuming no time for vegetation to recover between fires.[150]
Have mainstream climate models accurately projected global surface temperature changes?
mainstream climate models have also accurately projected global surface temperature changes
Do all models have limits for they are modelling complex systems?
all models have limits uncertainties for they are modelling complex systems
Is is tracking at the upper range of the model projections?
in reality, observed sea level is tracking at the upper range of the model projections
observed sea level rise since 1970 from tide gauge data (red) and satellite measurements (blue) compared to model projections for 1990-2010 from the ipcc third assessment report (grey band). (source: the copenhagen diagnosis, 2009 here, the models have understated the problem. in reality, observed sea level is tracking at the upper range of the model projections. there are other examples of models being too conservative rather than alarmist as some portray them. all models have limits uncertainties for they are modelling complex systems. however, all models improve over time, and with increasing sources of real-world information such as satellites, the output of climate models can be constantly refined to increase their power and usefulness. climate models have already predicted many of the phenomena for which we now have empirical evidence. climate models form a reliable guide to potential climate change. mainstream climate models have also accurately projected global surface temperature changes. climate contrarians have not. various global temperature projections by mainstream climate scientists and models, and by climate contrarians, compared to observations by nasa giss. created by dana nuccitelli.
How is simulated river discharge validated?
to validate the simulated river discharge, observed monthly river discharge records are obtained from the global runoff data centre (grdc; in koblenz, germany
The 24 river basins chosen for the study are situated in which continents and climatic zones ?
the selected rivers are distributed in all continents and in various climatic zones, including tropical (amazon and congo), arid (amu darya, euphrates, huang he, murray, nile, rio grande, and syr darya), midlatitude rainy (columbia, danube, mississippi, parana, rhine, and volga), asian monsoon (changjiang, ganges, and mekong), and high latitudes (amur, lena, mackenzie, ob, yenisei, and yukon
Why is that the observed river discharges do not necessarily represent natural discharges?
the observed river discharges do not necessarily represent natural discharges, because river discharges are affected by evaporation from the river surface and an artificial control of the river flow (e.g., irrigation, diversions, and dams
to validate the simulated river discharge, observed monthly river discharge records are obtained from the global runoff data centre (grdc; in koblenz, germany). the 24 river basins based on trip and locations of the discharge observation stations selected for this study are drawn in fig. 1. the selected rivers are distributed in all continents and in various climatic zones, including tropical (amazon and congo), arid (amu darya, euphrates, huang he, murray, nile, rio grande, and syr darya), midlatitude rainy (columbia, danube, mississippi, parana, rhine, and volga), asian monsoon (changjiang, ganges, and mekong), and high latitudes (amur, lena, mackenzie, ob, yenisei, and yukon). the observed river discharges do not necessarily represent natural discharges, because river discharges are affected by evaporation from the river surface and an artificial control of the river flow (e.g., irrigation, diversions, and dams).
What percentage of Africa's groundwater resources are currently exploited?
less than 4% of africa's groundwater resources are currently exploited
What might require new approaches that provide the universal public health benefits of large infrastructure systems?
resilience to climate change might require new approaches that provide the universal public health benefi ts of large infrastructure systems while avoiding high water consumption at a cost that is aff ordable for all
Design and management of what needs to account for resilience to droughts and floods, and changing annual average rainfall.
design and management of water and sanitation infrastructure need to account for resilience to droughts and fl oods, and changing annual average rainfall
less than 4% of africa's groundwater resources are currently exploited. although climate change threatens accessibility to water resources in general, the magnitude of this threat could be reduced with the development and availability of appropriate technology to exploit groundwater resources. approaches to provide access to safe drinking water and sanitation have conventionally followed either large-scale, centralised infrastructure systems or small-scale, locally aff ordable, and maintainable technologies. resilience to climate change might require new approaches that provide the universal public health benefi ts of large infrastructure systems while avoiding high water consumption at a cost that is aff ordable for all. water and sanitation systems need to be appropriate to local geography, culture, knowledge, and resources, and able to withstand high intensity rainfalls and drought conditions, and keep wastage of clean water to a minimum. ecological sanitation systems and low or no fl ow toilets that do not require water to dispose human waste safely are likely to be of increasing importance in delivering good public health outcomes under water-scarce conditions. systems for safely storing and treating water and technologies for using alternative supplies of water, such as waste-water recycling and desalination, are also likely to be important, although the development and implementation of these systems might undermine climate change mitigation eff orts if they result in increased carbon emissions. urban drainage systems, which incorporate principles of sustainable design (such as rainwater harvesting), will provide resilience to high rainfall events while removing standing water that can become contaminated, and act as habitat for vectors such as mosquitoes. water and sanitation technologies, which can be easily deployed during emergency situations, such as fl oods or hurricanes, will be increasingly important. water-conserving technologies, which deliver good public health outcomes but consume little water, will need to be implemented greatly in households and settlements. design and management of water and sanitation infrastructure need to account for resilience to droughts and fl oods, and changing annual average rainfall. for example, the ipcc has compiled data for technological adaptations that have already been implemented in areas of africa aimed at promoting climate resilience in rain-based farming systems for drought stress. these adaptations include: water harvesting systems, dam building, water conservation and agricultural practices, drip irrigation, and development of drought resistant crops.1 these observed adaptations should be spread across diff erent regions, nationally coordinated and locally implemented.
Say ordination colors?
fig. s3 ordination (nmds) based on diver operated video analysis showing changes in fish communities in the midwest (port gregory, 28.1 - 28.3os) between 2006 (light blue) and 2013 (pink) relative to the southwest (perth, 2006, dark blue) and the northwest (ningaloo, 2013, red
Describe the structure of the video captured data community?
the video-captured data clearly shows a shift in community structure from strong resemblance of the temperate communities farther south towards a greater similarity to the tropical communities farther north
Clarify the points patches?
points represent reefs >1 km apart, sampled by twelve 25 m transects where species abundances were converted to biomass using known length-weight relationships 10 ). transects were averaged for each reef and data ln[x+1]-transformed for analysis
fig. s3 ordination (nmds) based on diver operated video analysis showing changes in fish communities in the midwest (port gregory, 28.1 - 28.3os) between 2006 (light blue) and 2013 (pink) relative to the southwest (perth, 2006, dark blue) and the northwest (ningaloo, 2013, red). the video-captured data clearly shows a shift in community structure from strong resemblance of the temperate communities farther south towards a greater similarity to the tropical communities farther north. points represent reefs >1 km apart, sampled by twelve 25 m transects where species abundances were converted to biomass using known length-weight relationships 10 ). transects were averaged for each reef and data ln[x+1]-transformed for analysis.
A second constraint is?
an ectotherm's ability to buffer increases in air temperature behaviorally depends on the availability of shade
seasonal changes in the percentage of overhead shade required?
thermoregulation by our temperatephysiology ectotherm
Only moderate levels of shade are required for?
thermoregulation at the temperate site
a second constraint is that an ectotherm's ability to buffer increases in air temperature behaviorally depends on the availability of shade (or other cool environments or water). fig. 5 indicates seasonal changes in the percentage of overhead shade required (i.e., behaviorally selected) for thermoregulation by our temperatephysiology ectotherm under the 2 climate scenarios for each of the 3 sites. only moderate levels of shade are required for thermoregulation at the temperate site under either climate scenario (fig. 5 c and f ), but deep shade is needed at the continental (fig. 5 b and e and tropical (fig. 5 a and d sites if ectotherms are to maintain the same daily and seasonal patterns of activity under climate change (see also fig. s3 c ). calculations of mean annual shade requirements for an ectotherm thermoregulating between 20 and 40 degc are shown for the globe in fig. 6, in comparison to the availability of vegetation cover (mean annual normalized difference vegetation index), which provides a coarse index of shade availability (see fig. s6 for seasonal patterns). from these figures, it is clear that there are some regions of mismatch between required and available shade, such as the deserts of northern australia and northern africa (insufficient shade) and temperate australia, north america, and europe (too much shade). the costs of thermoregulation in terms of constraints on the times and places suitable for activity are likely to be very high in such areas. in contrast, heavy vegetation cover in many tropical areas would reduce the need for overt behavioral thermoregulation in many taxa (e.g., ref. 30). human activities such as deforestation are dramatically altering the degree of shading available for thermoregulating ectotherms in tropical regions. climate change will also alter vegetation cover through processes such as increased carbon dioxide (which encourages plant growth) and changed fire frequency, with potentially complex feedback loops (34). thus, a full assessment of the extent to which ectotherms can buffer climate change through behavioral means requires knowledge not only of their life history constraints but of how climate change will affect habitat structure. finally, altered seasonal activity and shade availability under climate warming also may interact across a landscape to affect rates of energy acquisition. although ectotherms can avoid overheating by reducing activity during warm periods of the year, their resting body temperatures, and hence metabolic rates, may be unavoidably high. thus, thermal constrictions on potential foraging time under
what is associated with HAB?
among habs associated with seafood, ciguatera fish poisoning (cfp) is most strongly influenced by climate.170, 171, 172 cfp is caused by toxins produced by the benthic algae gambierdiscus (table 1) and is the most frequently reported fish poisoning in humans
Describe well established link?
there is a well-established link between warm sea surface temperatures and increased occurrences of cfp,170, 171, 172 and in some cases, increases have also been linked to el nino-southern oscillation events
Mention the frequency of united states?
the frequency of tropical cyclones in the united states has also been associated with cfp, but with an 18-month lag period associated with the time required for a new gambierdiscus habitat to develop.170, 171
among habs associated with seafood, ciguatera fish poisoning (cfp) is most strongly influenced by climate.170, 171, 172 cfp is caused by toxins produced by the benthic algae gambierdiscus (table 1) and is the most frequently reported fish poisoning in humans.173 there is a well-established link between warm sea surface temperatures and increased occurrences of cfp,170, 171, 172 and in some cases, increases have also been linked to el nino-southern oscillation events.174 the frequency of tropical cyclones in the united states has also been associated with cfp, but with an 18-month lag period associated with the time required for a new gambierdiscus habitat to develop.170, 171
Does the annual variations of rainfall differ from year to year?
basically, there is no consistent difference in the mean annual rainfall or temperature across the sites in different subregions
What causes differences of temperature in these regions?
differences in annual mean temperature are primarily the result of variation in elevation which varied between 600 and 900 m a.s.l. in contrast, the level of within-year seasonality in both rainfall and temperature was different in each subregion, resulting in a clear pattern of subregional clustering of the sites in the seasonality plot (fig. 2b
What sub region had the most rainfall annually?
the spec uplands have the highest seasonality in both temperature and rainfall
c (fig. 2a). variation in the annual means was generally as great within each subregion as across subregions. basically, there is no consistent difference in the mean annual rainfall or temperature across the sites in different subregions. differences in annual mean temperature are primarily the result of variation in elevation which varied between 600 and 900 m a.s.l. in contrast, the level of within-year seasonality in both rainfall and temperature was different in each subregion, resulting in a clear pattern of subregional clustering of the sites in the seasonality plot (fig. 2b). the spec uplands have the highest seasonality in both temperature and rainfall, the atherton uplands were the least seasonal, the kirrima uplands were intermediate, and the carbine uplands had relatively low temperature seasonality but relatively high rainfall seasonality (fig. 2b).
Discussion In labor and delivery, perceptions of teamwork climate are affected by what?
discussion in labor and delivery, perceptions of teamwork climate are affected by the environment and role within the team
With what the teamwork climate scale scores at the L&D unit level were associated?
the teamwork climate scale scores at the l&d unit level were associated with better information management at point of care transitions like communication during shift changes and briefings before a procedure
With what the Good teamwork climate scale scores were associated?
good teamwork climate scale scores were associated with lower levels of caregiver burnout from their work - which has tremendous implications for using teamwork training to combat the epidemic of nurse retention
discussion in labor and delivery, perceptions of teamwork climate are affected by the environment and role within the team. teamwork climate is perceived differently as a function of the l&d unit in which a caregiver works, and l&d caregivers have discrepant attitudes about teamwork as a function of their role. these results are not unlike previous findings in the operating room, where the teamwork climate scale was psychometrically sound and reliable across caregiver types.23the teamwork climate scale is a composite measure of the extent to which caregivers report that they feel supported, can speak up comfortably, can ask questions, feel nurse input is heeded, that conflicts are resolved, and that physicians and nurses collaborate. here, we reported how the scale detects differences in perceptions of teamwork as a function of caregiver type and as a function of the l&d unit in which the respondent delivers care. correlations between the teamwork climate scale and the 10 teamwork-related items further illustrate and define issues related to teamwork climate. in addition, the content and interpretable relationship of these 10 items to the teamwork climate scale provides convergent validity, demonstrating that the teamwork climate scale is indeed eliciting perceptions of collaboration in labor and delivery. the teamwork climate scale scores at the l&d unit level were associated with better information management at point of care transitions like communication during shift changes and briefings before a procedure. good teamwork climate, as measured by the scale, also appears to be related to familiarity with other caregivers, such that knowing the names of ones' colleagues and being able to predict their actions during emergencies was associated with unitlevel teamwork climate. in l&d units where caregivers report good teamwork climate scale scores, they also report that decisions are made collaboratively and, when necessary, it is possible to disagree with staff physicians. good teamwork climate scale scores were associated with lower levels of caregiver burnout from their work - which has tremendous implications for using teamwork training to combat the epidemic of nurse retention. in another operationally relevant way, poor teamwork climate was associated with communication breakdowns that led to delays, which are very costly and unproductive periods for hospitals. finally, the relationship between the teamwork climate scale score and perceptions of being busy suggested that teamwork climate is related more to perceptions of adequate staffing levels and less to perceptions of workload it may be that good teamwork climate creates a synergy that offsets perceptions of inadequate staffing levels independent of perceptions of workload. overall, physicians and nurse managers were much more satisfied than nurses, with respect to the collaboration they experienced. the global difference between nurses and physicians has been documented in other clinical areas32,39and may be due primarily to personal characteristics of caregivers. a suggestion repeated in the comment section of the saq was to 'improve collaboration between physicians and nurses.' thomas and coworkers found that provider characteristics (personal attributes, reputation and expertise/seniority) influenced the ability of neonatal intensive care unit caregivers to work together.6
What does the CDP aims to achieve?
nevertheless, what cdp does aim to achieve is to reach an adequate level of comparison to be able to rank firms on their carbon mitigation activities
The CDP has compiled its own ranking: what is it called?
for example, from the second cycle onwards cdp has compiled its own ranking, the climate disclosure leadership index, translating company answers into scores
What are the four main components the CDP5 questionnaire consists of?
the cdp5 questionnaire consists of four main components - risks, opportunities and strategy; ghg accounting; ghg management; and climate governance - all containing various more detailed questions
even though the response rates are quite impressive, a closer look at the information that is disclosed by those firms that answered the questionnaire sheds a very different light on the apparent success of cdp. in the remainder of this paper, we will argue that effective commensuration still presents a major challenge, both on the level of carbon disclosure reporting that cdp promotes as well as the more detailed process of carbon accounting. for carbon disclosure reporting, commensuration is interpreted in a somewhat less strict form, in that it does not require complete quantification into a common metric of all qualitative relations, as levin and espeland (2002) define it. nevertheless, what cdp does aim to achieve is to reach an adequate level of comparison to be able to rank firms on their carbon mitigation activities. for example, from the second cycle onwards cdp has compiled its own ranking, the climate disclosure leadership index, translating company answers into scores. if carbon disclosure cannot deliver comparable information, it will be complicated for investors to assess the financial impact of carbon mitigation activities across firms and the value of carbon disclosure will be negligible (hassel et al., 2005). moreover, if there are doubts about the reliability of the data (e.g. due to a lack of external verification), carbon disclosure will not be credible and consequently not meet user needs of other stakeholders like ngos and policymakers (o'dwyer et al., 2005). the extent to which cdp data is comparable and reliable for meeting the needs of investors, ngos and policymakers has been questioned, based on observations that the data is frequently incomplete and inconsistent between firms and over time (hesse, 2006; kiernan, 2008). the cdp5 questionnaire consists of four main components - risks, opportunities and strategy; ghg accounting; ghg management; and climate governance - all containing various more detailed questions. most firms use a narrative style outlining all the initiatives that they have taken to combat climate change. this is particularly the case for answers to questions regarding opportunities, risks, strategy, and governance. since it is largely at the discretion of responding firms to decide which
How is climate change described as for much of its 100,000 year period?
much of climate change out to periods of 100,000 years (and probably longer), is describable as a stochastic variable
What variables do most theories relate time rates of climate change variables on?
most theories relate the time rates of change of climate variables such as temperature or ice volume to forcing functions
Who often associated the 100 ky changes with "random walks"?
often associated with random walks, as discussed much earlier by kominz and pisias
much of climate change out to periods of 100,000 years (and probably longer), is describable as a stochastic variable, often associated with random walks, as discussed much earlier by kominz and pisias (1979). beyond 100 ky periods, indications are that the spectrum becomes white until much longer time scales are reached, and at shorter periods, it is red-noise. detailed characterization of the process in some cases is uncertain owing to questions about the adequacy of sampling of the available cores. most theories relate the time rates of change of climate variables such as temperature or ice volume to forcing functions, and unless the spectral densities are very steeply diminishing functions of frequency, the physics will be governed by the highest frequencies present, not the lowest. superimposed upon some of these spectra are weak structures corresponding to the major milankovitch forcing frequency bands, but none of the records examined here could be said to be dominated by the milankovitch periods. mitchell (1976) has a good general discussion of the spectral components of climate change. the 100 ky changes may have a periodic component, but they are not obviously controlled by that behavior. stochastic forcing of a system with a collapse threshold can display a variability not unlike that observed for the 100,000 year glacial-interglacial oscillation without any oscillator being present. the shifts are non-periodic, yet display a visually dominant time scale. such oscillations are not predictable, except in the statistical sense that the mean time to a threshold crossing can be calculated (feller 1957). reduction of climate system behavior to the simple buildup to a threshold and collapse, is obviously a gross oversimplification. nothing precludes the co-existence of other modes of instability or of true oscillations or both, or the addition of determinstically (paillard 1998), or randomly excited multiple states; in general the climate system as a whole would be involved. one anticipates
What may reduce the potential costs of adaptation?
a better knowledge of the target environments and seasonal predictions may reduce the potential costs of adaptation
What are available for enhancing adaptation to climate variability?
conclusions a wide range of crop improvement options for enhancing adaptation to climate variability are available (table 2
What do the crop improvement options include?
conclusions a wide range of crop improvement options for enhancing adaptation to climate variability are available (table 2). these include the choice of the type of cultivar (degree 25 25 of heterozygosity and heterogeneity), direct selection in multiple environments, including farmer-participatory testing, indirect selection for individual adaptation traits using conventional or genomic selection methods, a dynamic genepool management approach, and selection for responsiveness or compatibility to improved crop and soil management techniques
conclusions a wide range of crop improvement options for enhancing adaptation to climate variability are available (table 2). these include the choice of the type of cultivar (degree 25 25 of heterozygosity and heterogeneity), direct selection in multiple environments, including farmer-participatory testing, indirect selection for individual adaptation traits using conventional or genomic selection methods, a dynamic genepool management approach, and selection for responsiveness or compatibility to improved crop and soil management techniques. to maximize impact, several options need to be combined. a better knowledge of the target environments and seasonal predictions may reduce the potential costs of adaptation. furthermore, seed systems need to be strengthened so that they effectively provide access to new varieties and a diverse range of varieties that respond to farmers' current and evolving needs, including adaptation to variable and changing climatic conditions.
What is presented in Chapter 9?
chapter 9: vulnerability of mangroves and tidal wetlands of the great barrier reef to climate change
What the topic 4 deal with?
understanding the magnitude of ground water inputs into mangroves and other tidal wetlands and the importance of this process to primary production, diversity and maintenance of surface elevation
What the topic 5 deal with?
improved knowledge of faunal responses to changing intertidal wetland plant species composition, changes in extent and connectivity of habitats and changes in productivity
climate change and the great barrier reef: a vulnerability assessment chapter 9: vulnerability of mangroves and tidal wetlands of the great barrier reef to climate change 3. knowledge of current sedimentation rates in mangroves and other wetlands (and differences from historical sedimentation rates) and the importance of sedimentation to wetland stability. 4. understanding the magnitude of ground water inputs into mangroves and other tidal wetlands and the importance of this process to primary production, diversity and maintenance of surface elevation. 5. improved knowledge of faunal responses to changing intertidal wetland plant species composition, changes in extent and connectivity of habitats and changes in productivity. 6. an enhanced understanding of how climate change factors interact with other human induced changes (eg nutrient enrichment) to influence productivity and stability. 7. knowledge of the sensitivity of carbon and nutrient storage and cycling in intertidal wetland soils to climate change drivers (atmospheric changes, temperature and sea level rise) and how this varies spatially within gbr wetlands. 8. quantitative understanding of the impacts of cyclones on intertidal wetlands, rates of recovery and interactions with other factors (eg sea level rise). 9. development of decision tools for management of the gbr that incorporate biological, social and economic factors.
What has been uncommon in the US but is now growing?
climate change activism has been uncommon in the u.s., but a growing national movement is pressing for a political response
What does a recent analysis by Skocpol argue?
a recent analysis attributes the failure of u.s. cap-and-trade legislation in 2010 to the lack of a broad-based national movement, and argues that legislation is unlikely without a large, wellorchestrated and sustained climate movement (skocpol 2013 
What is suggested to be the most efficacious method of achieving emission reductions?
citizen activism, it has been suggested, is the most efficacious method of achieving emission reductions, given that governments are unlikely to enact carbon limits without public pressure and individual conservation alone is incapable of producing sufficient emission reductions (ockwell et al. 2009 
climate change activism has been uncommon in the u.s., but a growing national movement is pressing for a political response. to assess the cognitive and affective precursors of climate activism, we hypothesize and test a two-stage information-processing model based on social cognitive theory. in stage 1, expectations about climate change outcomes and perceived collective efficacy to mitigate the threat are hypothesized to influence affective issue involvement and support for societal mitigation action. in stage 2, beliefs about the effectiveness of political activism, perceived barriers to activist behaviors and opinion leadership are hypothesized to influence intended and actual activism. to test these hypotheses, we fit a structural equation model using nationally representative data. the model explains 52 percent of the variance in a latent variable representing three forms of climate change activism: contacting elected representatives; supporting organizations working on the issue; and attending climate change rallies or meetings. the results suggest that efforts to increase citizen activism should promote specific beliefs about climate change, build perceptions that political activism can be effective, and encourage interpersonal communication on the issue. 1 a recent analysis attributes the failure of u.s. cap-and-trade legislation in 2010 to the lack of a broad-based national movement, and argues that legislation is unlikely without a large, wellorchestrated and sustained climate movement (skocpol 2013 ). citizen activism, it has been suggested, is the most efficacious method of achieving emission reductions, given that governments are unlikely to enact carbon limits without public pressure and individual conservation alone is incapable of producing sufficient emission reductions (ockwell et al. 2009 ).
What is the role of Working Group III?
the working group iii contribution to the ar5 explores the solution space of climate change mitigation drawing on experience and expectations for the future
What is the report intent?
the intent of the report is to facilitate an integrated and inclusive deliberation of alternative climate policy goals and the different possible means to achieve them (e. g., technologies, policies, institutional settings
What is the method of this exploration?
this exploration is based on a comprehensive and transparent assessment of the scientific, technical, and socioeconomic literature on the mitigation of climate change
the working group iii contribution to the ar5 explores the solution space of climate change mitigation drawing on experience and expectations for the future. this exploration is based on a comprehensive and transparent assessment of the scientific, technical, and socioeconomic literature on the mitigation of climate change. the intent of the report is to facilitate an integrated and inclusive deliberation of alternative climate policy goals and the different possible means to achieve them (e. g., technologies, policies, institutional settings). it does so through informing the policymakers and general public about the practical implications of alternative policy options, i. e., their associated costs and benefits, risks and trade-offs.
Give examples of host-parasite?
numerous examples have revealed the fragility of the host-parasite balance and shown that even slight climate changes impact on the establishment of invasive species that are currently at the fringes of the honey bees' distribution range. the situation of honey bees can also evolve when predators colonise new areas. a stark example is that of the bee-eater, a magnificent bird that feeds on hymenoptera and bees
What is the minimum harm to beekeepers?
the bee-eater originated in the mediterranean region but has extended its distribution range, causing only minimal harm to beekeepers so far. in france it is now found north of the loire. a second example is an apiary pest, the small hive beetle aethina tumida ), which originated in south africa and develops on the weakest honey bee colonies
Describe the problems of American beekeepers?
the parasite was imported into the usa, probably on citrus fruit on which the beetle can also develop. it has compounded the problems of american beekeepers, especially in hot and humid regions. the cold climate has halted the beetle's northward progression. climate change will promote the extension of its distribution range. measures have been taken to prevent this insect pest from being imported into europe, where it is considered a potential hazard
numerous examples have revealed the fragility of the host-parasite balance and shown that even slight climate changes impact on the establishment of invasive species that are currently at the fringes of the honey bees' distribution range. the situation of honey bees can also evolve when predators colonise new areas. a stark example is that of the bee-eater, a magnificent bird that feeds on hymenoptera and bees. the bee-eater originated in the mediterranean region but has extended its distribution range, causing only minimal harm to beekeepers so far. in france it is now found north of the loire. a second example is an apiary pest, the small hive beetle aethina tumida ), which originated in south africa and develops on the weakest honey bee colonies. the parasite was imported into the usa, probably on citrus fruit on which the beetle can also develop. it has compounded the problems of american beekeepers, especially in hot and humid regions. the cold climate has halted the beetle's northward progression. climate change will promote the extension of its distribution range. measures have been taken to prevent this insect pest from being imported into europe, where it is considered a potential hazard.
Is the impacts of climate a problem for our lives nowadays?
the impacts of climate are painfully apparent and are with us today, not in some hypothetical future
What the international community have been discussing for many years about climate change?
disaster relief, debt forgiveness, and development assistance
Is it necessary make search on documents to attribute the climate change as a problem made by human actions?
there would be no need to rely on documentation of changes in climate or attribution to a human cause as the basis for action
the basic principle of a more mature international climate policy is that the climate ''winners'' of the world would bear some responsibility for the climate ''losers'' of the world. of course, the international community has for many years discussed disaster relief, debt forgiveness, and development assistance. a new climate policy would bring these oftneglected issues of climate policy (but central elsewhere) into the core of discussions about how to reduce the future impacts ofclimateonsocietyandenvironment.when,atsome pointin the future, the distribution of climate winners and losers changes, then the relative roles and responsibilities of nations would change accordingly. in this manner, the fccc could lead to immediate, demonstrable results. there would be no need to rely on documentation of changes in climate or attribution to a human cause as the basis for action. the impacts of climate are painfully apparent and are with us today, not in some hypothetical future. a modified fccc might focus on ''catalytic processes that will enable, encourage, and facilitate actions that will help nations protect their populations from the consequences of climate change and help them reduce their production of greenhouse gases laird, 2000 op. cit.; rayner and malone, 1997 ).'' this would include the mechanisms of technology transfer already being considered. the ipcc could also serve as a resource of scientific information for participating countries to prioritize needs assessments, assistance, aid, and developmentresources,ratherthanitscurrent narrow focuson the needs of those focused on ratification of the fccc. arguably, the ipcc has begun to move in this direction. actual decisions about how best to reduce societal and environmentalvulnerability to climatewouldbemadein local contexts based on assessments of costs, benefits, and risks as
Although experimental studies have been informative, what do they usually fail to incorporate?
although these studies have been informative, they have usually failed to incorporate either current or predicted future, patterns of variability
Will the future climates that are likely to include extreme events have a greater or less impact on ecological systems?
future climates are likely to include extreme events which have greater impacts on ecological systems than changes in means alone
What is the primary difference between experimental treatments and climate models as it relates to temperature variability in terrestrial ecosystems?
in terrestrial ecosystems in particular, experimental treatments have reduced temperature variability, when most climate models predict increased variability
experimental studies assessing climatic effects on ecological communities have typically applied static warming treatments. although these studies have been informative, they have usually failed to incorporate either current or predicted future, patterns of variability. future climates are likely to include extreme events which have greater impacts on ecological systems than changes in means alone. here, we review the studies which have used experiments to assess impacts of temperature on marine, freshwater and terrestrial communities, and classify them into a set of 'generations' based on how they incorporate variability. the majority of studies have failed to incorporate extreme events. in terrestrial ecosystems in particular, experimental treatments have reduced temperature variability, when most climate models predict increased variability. marine studies have tended to not concentrate on changes in variability, likely in part because the thermal mass of oceans will moderate variation. in freshwaters, climate change experiments have a much shorter history than in the other ecosystems, and have tended to take a relatively simple approach. we propose a new 'generation' of climate change experiments using down-scaled climate models which incorporate predicted changes in climatic variability, and describe a process for generating data which can be applied as experimental climate change treatments. keywords climate change, down-scaled climate models, experimental treatments, experiments, freshwater, marine, terrestrial, weather scenarios.
What is the purpose of mutation induction?
the purpose of mutation induction is to enhance mutation rate in a short duration in developing new plant varieties
Which is difficult to use in plant breeding?
the occurrence of spontaneous mutation frequency rate is very low and difficult to use in plant breeding
Which beams have been used recently for mutation induction?
recently high energy ion beams have been used for mutation induction
the purpose of mutation induction is to enhance mutation rate in a short duration in developing new plant varieties. the occurrence of spontaneous mutation frequency rate is very low and difficult to use in plant breeding. traditionally mutations are induced by physical (e.g. gamma radiation) and chemical (e.g. ethylmethane sulfonate) mutagen treatment of both seed and vegetatively propagated crops. recently high energy ion beams have been used for mutation induction. they induce largely deletion mutants. in international atomic energy agency (iaea) mutant database, over 3000 officially released mutant varieties have been released worldwide in cereals, ornamental plants, fruits, vegetables, and oil crops. as a result, sustainable food production has been maintained. by in vitro selection, desirable mutants with useful agronomical traits, e.g. abiotic and biotic stress tolerant can be isolated in a short period of time. the genetic fidelity of the regenerated plants is highly desirable for developing new improved plant varieties and a useful as a reliable tool for feeding the ever-growing human population, genomic function especially under climate change and limited arable land. keywords:
Was the mean species richness observed at a site (local species richness) significantly different across the subregions in either observed species richness or when using rarefaction techniques to estimate the total species richness at each site (Table 1?)
the mean species richness observed at a site (local species richness) was not significantly different across the subregions in either observed species richness or when using rarefaction techniques to estimate the total species richness at each site (table 1
How many species of rainforest bird in the region for which the sampling technique was suitable (Table 1)?
there are 82 species of rainforest bird in the region for which the sampling technique was suitable (table 1
Was there was any significant difference in species richness or the species composition of rainforest birds across the study sites?
there was no significant difference in species richness or the species composition of rainforest birds across the study sites
there was no significant difference in species richness or the species composition of rainforest birds across the study sites. over the space of the study, all species were recorded in all of the subregions sampled in this study except for the atherton scrubwren which is not known to be present in the spec uplands. there are 82 species of rainforest bird in the region for which the sampling technique was suitable (table 1). we conducted sufficient sampling in all subregions to ensure that all 82 species were observed in the carbine, atherton, and kirrima uplands and 81 species in the spec uplands. the mean species richness observed at a site (local species richness) was not significantly different across the subregions in either observed species richness or when using rarefaction techniques to estimate the total species richness at each site (table 1). local species richness is estimated to be
What effects are at play in the sediment characteristics of barrier-island coasts?
for example, barrier-island coasts will experience barrier rollover due to slr, thus reducing the tidal prism over time
Which references can I look up to find more information about the sediment characteristics of multiple different types of inlets?
the sediment supply/demand characteristics of tide-dominated estuaries, wavedominated estuaries (also known as barrier or bar-built estuaries), barrier-island inlets (with no river flow) and lagoons can vary markedly1,4
What happens in estuaries that are backed by salt marshes?
estuaries/lagoons backed by extensive salt marshes will increase their volume and thus tidal prisms (and inlet cross-section) owing to inundation of the salt marshes4,18
the cc-induced coastal response adjacent to an inlet is essentially a sediment budget issue, and is therefore dependent on the type of estuary/lagoon the inlet is connected to. the sediment supply/demand characteristics of tide-dominated estuaries, wavedominated estuaries (also known as barrier or bar-built estuaries), barrier-island inlets (with no river flow) and lagoons can vary markedly1,4. for example, barrier-island coasts will experience barrier rollover due to slr, thus reducing the tidal prism over time17,18; tide-dominated or mixed-energy coast inlets, where large ebb tidal deltas are usually present, are subject to complex ebb delta/inlet/estuary sand-transport mechanisms that may be modified nonlinearly by cc effects3,13,19; estuaries/lagoons backed by extensive salt marshes will increase their volume and thus tidal prisms (and inlet cross-section) owing to inundation of the salt marshes4,18. thus, the development of a simple scale-aggregated model to simulate cc impacts on coastlines adjacent to all of these different types of inlet-estuary/lagoon system is beyond the scope of the present study. therefore, here we focus on developing a
what are the questions to respond in the book?
the crucial questions seem to centre around finding ways to make 'good' decisions about choosing adaptation measures, shaping adaptation policies and conceptualizing broader strategic visions of how nations and regions might cope with long-term dislocation and redistribution of population and economic activities
Thinks about what?
this book is a first-rate to ways of thinking about these issues from an economic perspective. in so doing it demonstrates many of the strengths and the weaknesses of economics as applied to the adaptation to climate change. how much climate damage is tolerable? what does it mean to be 'climate resilient
How many essays the book have?
this book of three essays is a step in the right direction
the crucial questions seem to centre around finding ways to make 'good' decisions about choosing adaptation measures, shaping adaptation policies and conceptualizing broader strategic visions of how nations and regions might cope with long-term dislocation and redistribution of population and economic activities. this book is a first-rate to ways of thinking about these issues from an economic perspective. in so doing it demonstrates many of the strengths and the weaknesses of economics as applied to the adaptation to climate change. how much climate damage is tolerable? what does it mean to be 'climate resilient'? for many in developing countries it is abundantly clear that the present levels of expenditure on adaptation (of all kinds) are inadequate. there is an adaptation deficit in relation to current climate change and variability. for some it is evidently important to know what the 'ultimate' costs of adaptation might be. for many more it is important to accelerate the process of developing a more programmatic approach which can move climate change adaptation forward more rapidly. this book of three essays is a step in the right direction.
How is vulnerability shaped?
vulnerability is shaped by a combination of physical, social, economic and environmental factors the attributes of the person/system that condition the impacts resulting from flooding
What is a complex undertaking?
navigating through a series of competing terminologies from different academic disciplines is a complex undertaking, but box 2.1 provides a list of working definitions for some of these concepts to indicate how they are being applied in this paper
Who or what is defined as being at risk of floods?
flood risk is defined here in terms of risk to humans and human society, and is seen as a product of the severity and probability of occurrence of flood hazard and the vulnerability of the population/system (brooks, 2003
galvanised in part by questions of societal adaptation to climate change impacts, there has been much recent theoretical work on hazard risk and related concepts of vulnerability and resilience (see e.g. wisner et al., 2004 for a recent review). navigating through a series of competing terminologies from different academic disciplines is a complex undertaking, but box 2.1 provides a list of working definitions for some of these concepts to indicate how they are being applied in this paper. it draws on, but also differs from, the conceptual definitions provided by the international strategy for disaster reduction (isdr, 2002). flood risk is defined here in terms of risk to humans and human society, and is seen as flood risk is defined here in terms of risk to humans and human society, and is seen as a product of the severity and probability of occurrence of flood hazard and the vulnerability of the population/system (brooks, 2003). vulnerability is shaped by a combination of physical, social, economic and environmental factors the attributes of the person/system that condition the impacts resulting from flooding. in the past, physical aspects of vulnerability the spatial distribution of populations and infrastructure in relation to flood hazard tended to receive more attention in hazards research (hilhorst
How do people measure risk?
traditionally people measured risk by applying to particular situations the lessons learnt through past experience
What would be cause for increase in global temperature?
much of the increase in global temperatures is known to be strongly driven by anthropogenic, or human-made, emissions of climate change gases
What is to be included for modelling future climates?
if we are to model future climates we must include the potential influences of our own actions on the trends
traditionally people measured risk by applying to particular situations the lessons learnt through past experience. historic events provided adequate experience against which to evaluate future risk. we now believe from the climate models, touched on in chapter 1, that if current trends continue, the future climate will be very different from that today. but those future trends will be influenced by the actions taken by us today, because much of the increase in global temperatures is known to be strongly driven by anthropogenic, or human-made, emissions of climate change gases. if we are to model future climates we must include the potential influences of our own actions on the trends. the way this is currently done is by using scenarios of what the future may be like, more free ebooks http://fast-file.blogspot.com
In their 1996 press release, the GCC warned that measures to curb emissions by 20 percent could cost Americans how many jobs annually?
in a 1996 press release, the gcc warned that measures to curb emissions by 20 per cent 'could reduce the us gross domestic product by 4 per cent and cost americans up to 1.1 million jobs annually
When did the Kyoto conference take place?
in the run-up to the kyoto conference in december 1997
What was the slogan of the Global Climate Information Project's advertising campaign?
the gcc channelled $1 3 million through the global climate information project for an advertising campaign with the slogan 'it's not global and it won't work
associates, 1996) which employed pessimistic assumptions concerning the responsiveness of consumers and firms to price signals. in a 1996 press release, the gcc warned that measures to curb emissions by 20 per cent 'could reduce the us gross domestic product by 4 per cent and cost americans up to 1.1 million jobs annually'. in the run-up to the kyoto conference in december 1997, industry's message shifted from the high cost of control measures to the unfair economic burden and limited environmental effectiveness of an agreement that would exclude developing countries from emission controls. the gcc channelled $1 3 million through the global climate information project for an advertising campaign with the slogan 'it's not global and it won't work'. by emphasizing the potential implications for he1 prices and employment, the global climate information project (gcip) secured the endorsement of a number of associations representing a spectrum of civil society, including unions, black businesses, farmers, and retired people. these organizational and discursive strategies clearly rest on material and economic foundations. the gcc is funded by some of the world's largest mncs, enabling it to send large delegations to international negotiations, mount expensive advertising campaigns, commission reports, and donate substantial sums to political action committees to finance us congressional election campaigns
In which regions of South America is corn grown?
maize is grown from argentina to venezuela
What kind of food is grown on hot farms in Brazil?
fruits are the primary choice of hot brazilian farms
What is the crop favorite in the Equador?
rice is the crop of choice in ecuador
this paper uses a multinomial choice model to capture the choice of crops made by farmers. the model is estimated across 949 farmers in south america. we observe that the choice among the seven most popular crops in south america varies with climate. farms that are cooler are more likely to choose potatoes and wheat, average temperature farms tend to choose maize, soybeans and rice, and farms in warm locations choose fruits and vegetables and squash. farms in dry locations tend to choose maize and potatoes, farms in moderately dry conditions tend to pick soybeans and wheat, farms in wet conditions choose fruits and vegetables, squash, and rice. these cross-sectional results suggest that farmers have adjusted crop choice to fit their local climate conditions. although crop switching has not generally been captured by the climate change impact literature, crop switching is quite consistent with broad observations of where species are currently located. maize is grown from argentina to venezuela. potatoes are concentrated in the mountains of chile and columbia. rice is the crop of choice in ecuador. soybeans and squash are concentrated in uruguay, northern argentina, and southern brazil. wheat is chosen in cooler parts of chile. fruits are the primary choice of hot brazilian farms. if climate changes, this current distribution of crops across the landscape in south america will shift as individual farmers switch crops to respond to a new climate. the model anticipates how farmers might switch from cool loving crops in south america to warm loving crops currently grown in south america. the model does not consider new crops that might get introduced into the crop mix from either importation or research. the model therefore underestimates the likely substitution available in the future. on the other hand, the research is focusing table 4 - effect of climate change scenario on crop choice in south america maize (%) potato (%) rice (%) soybean (%) squash (%) wheat (%) fruits (%)
What is the global population projection for 2050?
human population is expected to increase from around 6.5 billion today to 9.2 billion by 2050
How much is the population of Africa projected to grow by 2050?
more than 1 billion of this increase will occur in africa
Why are livestock systems projected to change in the future?
rapid urbanisation is expected to continue in developing countries, and the global demand for livestock products will continue to increase significantly in the coming decades 
livestock systems in developing countries are changing rapidly in response to a variety of drivers. globally, human population is expected to increase from around 6.5 billion today to 9.2 billion by 2050. more than 1 billion of this increase will occur in africa. rapid urbanisation is expected to continue in developing countries, and the global demand for livestock products will continue to increase significantly in the coming decades (delgado et al., 1999). in addition, the climate is changing, and with it climate variability, and this adds to the already considerable development challenges faced by many countries in the tropics and subtropics.
How does the eletricity is generated in Iceland?
electricity generated by hydropower (83%) and geothermal energy (17
What is the importance of the geothermal utilisantion?
geothermal utilisation has reduced co2 emissions in iceland by some two million tonnes annually compared to the burning of fossil fuels
Does the geothermal energy could be applied in other countries?
many countries could reduce their emissions significantly through the use of geothermal energy
thanks to geothermal district heating, reykjavik (iceland) is one of the cleanest capitals in the world. there is no smoke from chimneys. heating with polluting fossil fuels has been eliminated, and about 100 million tonnes of co2 emissions have been avoided by replacing coal and oil heating by geothermal (see figure 15). almost 90% of all houses in iceland are currently heated by geothermal water, and the remainder is heated by electricity generated by hydropower (83%) and geothermal energy (17%). geothermal utilisation has reduced co2 emissions in iceland by some two million tonnes annually compared to the burning of fossil fuels. the total release of co2 in iceland in 2004 was 2.8 million tonnes. the reduction has significantly improved iceland"s position globally in this respect. many countries could reduce their emissions significantly through the use of geothermal energy.
where do the  remaining rows of Panel lead to?
the remaining rows of panel [a] lead to the same qualitative conclusion that climate change will have only a modest effect on agricultural profits
what does the rows (6) through (8) indicate ?
rows (6) through (8) indicate that the results are largely insensitive to how counties are assigned to the irrigated and dryland categories and whether the weather parameters are allowed to vary across these groups
how does the growing season is extended In row (9) ?
in row (9) the growing season is extended by a month to include october and in row (10) we allow for two growing seasons that cover the entire year to allow for the effect of the important winter wheat crop
the remaining rows of panel [a] lead to the same qualitative conclusion that climate change will have only a modest effect on agricultural profits. rows (6) through (8) indicate that the results are largely insensitive to how counties are assigned to the irrigated and dryland categories and whether the weather parameters are allowed to vary across these groups. in row (9) the growing season is extended by a month to include october and in row (10) we allow for two growing seasons that cover the entire year to allow for the effect of the important winter wheat crop. the predicted change remains small and
What is the concept of "vulnerability" central to?
both scientific and policy discussions on climate change
What notions does vulnerability capture?
possible loss, damage, and impact; of threat, risk, and stress; of uncertainty and insecurity; of a lack of power and control; and of a number of other factors that contribute to a feeling or state of being vulnerable
Other than vulnerability, what other term that people understand intuitively?
welfare
the concept of "vulnerability" is central to both scientific and policy discussions on climate change. it has important communicative value: it describes in a powerful way that change is not always for the good. vulnerability captures notions of possible loss, damage, and impact; of threat, risk, and stress; of uncertainty and insecurity; of a lack of power and control; and of a number of other factors that contribute to a feeling or state of being vulnerable. unlike many other academic terms used to describe specific attributes of a system, the word vulnerability is also in widespread common use. as a result, most people have an intuitive understanding of what is meant when they read the scientific reports and policy documents in which the term appears. unfortunately, people's intuitive understandings are not always the same. vulnerability is not the only word used by academics and policymakers that can create confusion because of its common use. many scientific disciplines use existing words to describe specific situations or characteristics. if these situations or characteristics can be observed, measured and compared objectively and quantitatively, confusion is usually limited. however, if no obvious metrics exist for a particular term, or existing metrics are contradictory, then the information conveyed by the term is bound to be ambiguous or inconsistent, unless there is widespread prior agreement about the term's meaning. "welfare", like vulnerability, is a term that people understand intuitively. yet for an economist the term precisely describes one particular property of a society. moreover, based on an agreed definition of welfare, the economist has tools for measuring and comparing it and expressing it in a common metric (e.g. gross domestic product per capita). similarly,"intelligence" is a concept, defined by cognitive scientists, for which a metric has been developed for its measurement and comparison (viz. intelligence quotient).1researchers on vulnerability have not yet reached the point of their counterparts in economics or cognitive sciences: for vulnerability such operational definitions do not exist.2
How many different mechanisms of influence are identified?
alder and haas (1992) identify four mechanisms by which epistemic communities exert influence
What is the third mechanism of influence?
third, policy selection when policy makers seek out particular epistemic communities for policy ideas and support
How have accountants framed climate change?
accountants have framed climate change in a way that makes their own expertise and knowledge (in calculation, measurement etc.) highly relevant to the policy solutions
more specifically alder and haas (1992) identify four mechanisms by which epistemic communities exert influence: first through policy innovation - in the initial framing of the issue; second, policy diffusion - whereby epistemic community members communicate ideas through their international contacts, by word of mouth and reports; third, policy selection when policy makers seek out particular epistemic communities for policy ideas and support; and fourth policy persistence - the durability of ideas, beliefs and goals over time, which boosts an epistemic community's authority and credibility. with reference to the case under discussion - accountants and climate change - it appears at this relatively early stage of 14 14 engagement we are only witnessing the first two mechanisms: policy innovation, and to a lesser extent policy diffusion. as we demonstrate in the main empirical section below, accountants have to date not been at the forefront of climate change action, but have nevertheless significantly increased their activities and interest in the problem in recent years and a number of international networks have emerged (eg the climate disclosure standards board, accounting for sustainability). moreover, accountants have framed climate change in a way that makes their own expertise and knowledge (in calculation, measurement etc.) highly relevant to the policy solutions, and in so doing have contributed to a wider framing of the issue as a matter of reshaping and extending market processes and existing corporate reporting procedures (and not radically altering or disrupting those processes and procedures).
Will the proposed methods need to be adapted to local conditions?
the proposed methods will need to be adapted to local conditions, while harmonisation of exposure and effect variables is important for combined analysis of the global hothaps impact
However, how the components can be carried out?
however, the components can be carried out separately or in combination
What the key informants could include?
the key informants could include occupational health practitioners, public health professionals, social scientists, community organisation representatives and well-informed people from different economic sectors
the hothaps field study programme contains five components briefly described below (detailed protocols can be acquired from the hothaps team). the proposed methods will need to be adapted to local conditions, while harmonisation of exposure and effect variables is important for combined analysis of the global hothaps impact. ideally, a hothaps pilot study should be completed before carrying out the subsequent field studies. however, the components can be carried out separately or in combination. the field studies should ideally be carried out using participatory approaches with key target groups in order to ensure that the studies take their concerns into account. pilot study for hothaps field studies the pilot study will describe the general heat exposure situation for people in the country, make initial comments on how people cope with heat, and tentatively identify occupational and community groups that might already be affected by heat and therefore particularly vulnerable to increasing heat caused by future climate change. the first stage would be a literature review of any local information on heat problems at work, warning systems and preventive interventions (the review of published and unpublished information should ideally go back to the 1950s as in some countries studies were carried out this long ago). existing workplace heat exposure data can be complemented by climate measurements in selected workplaces to compare with published data or weather station data. a list of broad questions will be used to collect information from key informants about the heat exposure situation and impacts on health and work capacity in a specific location (a suggested questionnaire will be provided by the hothaps team). the key informants could include occupational health practitioners, public health professionals, social scientists, community organisation representatives and well-informed people from different economic sectors. the questionnaire study will identify common observations of the way people describe the impacts of heat on
How should the conductive flux from the surface be balanced?
at the surface, if the surface temperature tsf) is below 0*c, the conductive flux from the top surface to the bottom of the ice fct) must balance the net surface flux from the atmosphere to ice f0) f0 fct, (d1) and both fluxes are evaluated at time m 1 m being the current timestep
How are surface flows calculated?
the surface fluxes are computed in the same way as the cice multilayer model. in the zero-layer model, any solar energy calculated to be absorbed internally within the ice is added to the surface absorption
How is the flux conductive in the zero layer model?
a fraction of the shortwave radiation is still able to pass through the ice to the ocean, in contrast to the coupled configuration. the conductive flux in the zero-layer model is fct ki
at the surface, if the surface temperature tsf) is below 0*c, the conductive flux from the top surface to the bottom of the ice fct) must balance the net surface flux from the atmosphere to ice f0) f0 fct, (d1) and both fluxes are evaluated at time m 1 m being the current timestep). the surface fluxes are computed in the same way as the cice multilayer model. in the zero-layer model, any solar energy calculated to be absorbed internally within the ice is added to the surface absorption. a fraction of the shortwave radiation is still able to pass through the ice to the ocean, in contrast to the coupled configuration. the conductive flux in the zero-layer model is fct ki
What is the distribution of resistance?
the distribution of resistance and susceptibility to four diseases, important in the context of climate change for the barley crop
What is stem resistance?
resistance to stem rust pathotype ttksk is rare, with most resistant accessions coming from central asia, while resistance to leaf rust is intermediate in frequency, with resistant accessions identified only in the fertile crescent and north africa
fig. 4 the distribution of resistance and susceptibility to four diseases, important in the context of climate change for the barley crop, in the wild barley diversity collection hordeum vulgare ssp. spontaneum ). (a) stem rust pathotype ttksk (4% resistant and 96% susceptible accessions). (b) leaf rust pathotype 8 (27% resistant and 73% susceptible). (c) net blotch isolate nd89-19 (99% resistant and 1% susceptible). (d) spot blotch pathotype 1 (94% resistant and 6% susceptible). illustrations of resistant and susceptible responses are given in fig. 5. geographical trends in distribution are evident in all four cases. resistance to stem rust pathotype ttksk is rare, with most resistant accessions coming from central asia, while resistance to leaf rust is intermediate in frequency, with resistant accessions identified only in the fertile crescent and north africa. resistance to net blotch and spot blotch is legion across the range of wild barley, with onlya few susceptible accessionsfoundmostly in the fertile crescent and caucasus regions (b. steffenson observations, first reporting of results).
What is a robust approach?
meaning it should yield similar results for a wide range of assumed hydrologic model structures
What is the feature of a unbiased approach?
the approach must also be unbiased so that on average, over many applications, one may discern the true underlying sensitivity of streamflow to climate
Why is it challenging?
the sensitivity of streamflow to climate is itself a dynamic quantity which may change as climate changes. furthermore, it is challenging to develop an estimator which can produce unbiased estimates of the sensitivity of streamflow to climate under different model assumptions because the development of an unbiased estimator itself has to be based on a model assumption
water resources research, vol. 37, no. 6, pages 1771-1781, june 2001 1771 approach for evaluating the sensitivity of streamflow to climate. the approach must be robust, meaning it should yield similar results for a wide range of assumed hydrologic model structures. the approach must also be unbiased so that on average, over many applications, one may discern the true underlying sensitivity of streamflow to climate. this is challenging for a number of reasons. the sensitivity of streamflow to climate is itself a dynamic quantity which may change as climate changes. furthermore, it is challenging to develop an estimator which can produce unbiased estimates of the sensitivity of streamflow to climate under different model assumptions because the development of an unbiased estimator itself has to be based on a model assumption. our goal is to develop a robust and approximately unbiased estimator of the sensitivity of streamflow to climate which can perform well under different model assumptions. this estimator is then used for (1) constructing regional maps of the sensitivity of streamflow to climate for the continental united states, (2) evaluating and comparing our results with other climate sensitivity studies, and (3) understanding the physical processes which dominate the sensitivity of streamflow to climate. we also explore the use of climate elasticity of streamflow as an external validation statistic which may prove useful in future climate change investigations.
What is the main function of framing?
framing is critical in its function to allocate responsibility for taking action
What happens if climate change is framed as a scientific matter?
for example, if climate change is framed as a scientific matter, many lay people do not feel directly included or addressed (since science falls under the purview of 'experts', i.e., others
What is the effect of frames that rely on the notion of environmental stewardship?
in frames that rely on the notion of environmental stewardship (as in many religious communications on this topic), individuals and communities feel more directly implicated
framing is critical in its function to allocate responsibility for taking action. for example, if climate change is framed as a scientific matter, many lay people do not feel directly included or addressed (since science falls under the purview of 'experts', i.e., others). similarly, if it is framed as a matter of technological innovation, researchers and engineers are perceived as the primary actors. in frames that rely on the notion of environmental stewardship (as in many religious communications on this topic), individuals and communities feel more directly implicated.130the imagery, language, messengers, and stories used in different frames can thus underscore or detract from an individual's sense of responsibility. for example, among the participants in the aforementioned uk focus group study that examined the effects of the movie ' the day after tomorrow ', viewers experienced an increased motivation and sense of responsibility to act personally on climate change.103while participants generally felt that public concern could not lead to action without the aid of political support, they articulated a collective human responsibility for the causes of climate change.103
What does this paper discuss?
impacts of climate change on the ecology of avian influenza viruses (ai viruses), which presumably co-evolved with migratory water birds, with virus also persisting outside the host in subarctic water bodies
What would climate change almost certainly do?
alter bird migration, influence the ai virus transmission cycle and directly affect virus survival outside the host
What will  AI virus circulation in water bird populations do?
continue with endless adaptation and evolution
summary this paper discusses impacts of climate change on the ecology of avian influenza viruses (ai viruses), which presumably co-evolved with migratory water birds, with virus also persisting outside the host in subarctic water bodies. climate change would almost certainly alter bird migration, influence the ai virus transmission cycle and directly affect virus survival outside the host. the joint, net effects of these changes are rather unpredictable, but it is likely that ai virus circulation in water bird populations will continue with endless adaptation and evolution. in domestic poultry, too little is known about the direct effect of environmental factors on highly pathogenic avian influenza transmission and persistence to allow inference about the possible effect of climate change. however, possible indirect links through changes in the distribution of duck-crop farming are discussed. keywords avian influenza - bird migration - climate change - disease ecology.
What is environmental NGOs?
however, it is not just conservative environmental ngos that have been neutralized by strategies of corporate polluters
What is NGO Global Forum?
at the original earth summit in rio the ngo global forum produced an alternative treaty, designed to influence the official rio declarations. in this visionary document, the ngos declared that the climate negotiators should "avoid any emission trading schemes which only superficially address climate change problems, perpetuate or worsen inequities hidden behind the problem, or have a negative ecological impact
What happened in eight month later?
after agreement was reached on key controversial issues in the kyoto protocol at cop6.5 in bonn in july, 2001, press statements from friends of the earth international heralded the agreement as a "new hope for the future" - even though it placed no specific limits on the use of emissions trading, and was actually weaker than the deal they had described as "junk" in cop6
however, it is not just conservative environmental ngos that have been neutralized by strategies of corporate polluters. at the original earth summit in rio the ngo global forum produced an alternative treaty, designed to influence the official rio declarations. in this visionary document, the ngos declared that the climate negotiators should "avoid any emission trading schemes which only superficially address climate change problems, perpetuate or worsen inequities hidden behind the problem, or have a negative ecological impact."25after kyoto, however, the large ngos that had helped produce the alternative treaty in rio began to abandon their stand against emissions trading. by november, 2000, at the sixth meeting (cop6) of the signatories to the un framework convention on climate change, even some of the more radical ngos like friends of the earth had changed their position on emissions trading. at cop6 they moderated their demands to calling for a 20 percent limit on the use of emissions trading. eight months later, after agreement was reached on key controversial issues in the kyoto protocol at cop6.5 in bonn in july, 2001, press statements from friends of the earth international heralded the agreement as a "new hope for the future" - even though it placed no specific limits on the use of emissions trading, and was actually weaker than the deal they had described as "junk" in cop6. in johannesburg at the 2002 world summit on sustainable development, greenpeace and the world business council for sustainable development (wbcsd),
Who has been working to support vulnerable groups such as indigenous peoples?
a number of international agencies with expertise in traditional, local and indigenous knowledge
What does (SCBD) stands for?
secretariat of the convention on biological diversity
What does (UNESCO) stands for?
united nations educational, scientific and cultural organization
a number of international agencies with expertise in traditional, local and indigenous knowledge have been working to support consideration of this knowledge in the ar5, as well as vulnerable groups such as indigenous peoples. the ipcc, the secretariat of the convention on biological diversity (scbd), the united nations development programme's gef small grants programme (undp/gef sgp), the united nations educational, scientific and cultural organization (unesco), and the united nations university (unu) convened an international expert meeting entitled 'indigenous peoples, marginalized populations and climate change: vulnerability, adaptation and traditional knowledge' from 19 to 21 july 2011 in mexico city to further explore this topic. overseen by an international panel of experts, the meeting brought together indigenous peoples and natural and social scientists from both developed and developing countries with lead authors and the chair of ar5 working group ii. this technical report provides an overview of relevant published sources in the scientific and grey literature, and includes information from the international expert meeting in mexico. it aligns some of the key issues that emerge from these sources with themes identified in the outline of the ar5 working group ii report. due to limitations of resources and time, only a selection of themes from the ar5 outline could be covered in this technical report. this does in no way mean that themes and regions that are not addressed are of lesser importance, nor without valuable research results on indigenous knowledge and climate change.
How is red noise removed from time series observations?
a ''prewhitening'' procedure that removes the red noise component from the time series
What are the key elements of the "prewhitening" procedure?
the key elements of this procedure are subsampling and bias correction of the least squares estimate of the serial correlation
What are the characteristics of time series of observations generated by a stationary red noise process?
long intervals when the observations remain above or below the overall mean value
time series of observations generated by a stationary red noise process are characterized by long intervals when the observations remain above or below the overall mean value. these intervals can be easily misinterpreted as ''climatic regimes'' with different statistics. a ''prewhitening'' procedure that removes the red noise component from the time series prior to an application of a regime shift detection technique is discussed. the key elements of this procedure are subsampling and bias correction of the least squares estimate of the serial correlation. a new technique to obtain a bias-corrected estimate of the autoregressive parameter is proposed. it is shown that the pacific decadal oscillation (pdo) appears to be more than just a manifestation of a red noise process. citation: rodionov, s. n. (2006), use of prewhitening in climate regime shift detection, geophys. res. lett. 33 l12707, doi:10.1029/2006gl025904.
What can climate change activities in developing countries be financed with?
can be financed with development assistance
What is the consequence for the use of ODA funds?
is that there is no limitation
it should be noted that almost all climate change related activities in developing countries can be financed with development assistance. while there was a lively debate about "additionality" of resources before the ratification of the kyoto protocol, the practical definition adopted in april 2004 by the oecd development assistance committee (dac) only excludes those cdm activities which governments directly use to purchase cers (oecd/dac 2004). this implies that alternative interpretations of additionality, in particular a quantitative minimum requirement for traditional development assistance, oriented either at the baseline of current spending or at the 0.7% target, has effectively been ruled out (dutschke 8 8 and michaelowa 2006). the consequence is that there is no limitation to the use of oda funds for climate related activities.
How many years did the Redclim project show that the change in surface windspeed?
the results from the regclim project show that the change in surface windspeed will be rather small over the next 50 years (see figure 3
In what scandinavian country is the low pressure systems reach?
large wind-speeds are connected to the low-pressure systems reaching the norwegian coast, but the natural variability of the dominant tracks of these systems varies over several decades
What is the increased   frequency of wind-speed for the southern coast of Norway?
one particular result is an increased frequency of wind-speed between 10 and 20 m/s along the coast of southwestern norway
the results from the regclim project show that the change in surface windspeed will be rather small over the next 50 years (see figure 3). however, significant changes in relation to the natural variability can be found for some areas and for some seasons. large wind-speeds are connected to the low-pressure systems reaching the norwegian coast, but the natural variability of the dominant tracks of these systems varies over several decades. the regclim analysis of wind is for this reason limited by a relatively short time period of data. one particular result is an increased frequency of wind-speed between 10 and 20 m/s along the coast of southwestern norway. this is in agreement with a theory that a somewhat warmer ocean will result in more frequent and stronger storms, since the potential for release of heat by condensation taking place under developments of
What are two geographical factors make foreign investment less likely?
locations far from major markets and with small populations
What are some of the factors that might influence the choice of foreign investors?
political or macro stability of the country, the quality of its legal system, or availability of high-quality labor
What variable can be used to control for most factors affecting foreign investment?
country dummies will adequately control for most of these factors
not surprisingly, geography does matter for foreign investment: it is less likely in locations far from major markets and with small populations. still, the investment climate variables that were important in the first specification remain so here. one can easily think of a whole host of other factors that might influence the choice of foreign investors, such as political or macro stability of the country, the quality of its legal system, or availability of high-quality labor. we are going to argue that country dummies will adequately control for most of these factors. labor is relatively mobile within the countries on which we are focusing, so if good human resources are important, the country dummy should pick this up.
To what the regional climate is related with?
regional climate response to forcing applied in various latitude bands
How regional temperature measured?
the rows show surface air temperature (sat) changes in the region indicated in the upper left corner, with the response shown as the sat change per unit positive global (left column) or local (right column) radiative forcing
Colors used for what?
the colours indicate the type of forcing applied (see legend; bc: black carbon), and the band in which the forcing was applied is given on the x axis
regional climate response to forcing applied in various latitude bands. the rows show surface air temperature (sat) changes in the region indicated in the upper left corner, with the response shown as the sat change per unit positive global (left column) or local (right column) radiative forcing. the colours indicate the type of forcing applied (see legend; bc: black carbon), and the band in which the forcing was applied is given on the x axis. radiative forcing is the mean annual-average adjusted value at the tropopause and sat is the area-weighted mean. global mean responses to tropical forcing (0 36*c (global w m- 2)- 1and 0 17*c (local w m- 2)- 1) are shown in all rows (dashed line) for comparison. uncertainties are standard deviations in 80-year equilibrium runs.
What is The UKCP09 WG based on?
the ukcp09 wg is based on the concept (as discussed in kilsby et al. 2007) of a point-based process
what is recommended for regions over 1000 km2?
for regions larger than 1000 km2, we recommend direct use of the 11-member rcm simulations, available through link, when users require real spatial
what is avoided by choosing a homogeneous region?
care must also be taken that a homogeneous region is chosen, avoiding for example, large differences in elevation which may cause averaging of very different rainfall rates across the region
the ukcp09 wg is based on the concept (as discussed in kilsby et al. 2007) of a point-based process. the implication of this is that if a series is generated for a neighbouring (5 km) square to one already generated, there will be no correlation in time between the two series (e.g. at any given time, it may be raining in one square and not the other). whilst rainfall models have been developed which can generate consistent space-time series for use in, for example, large river basin flood models, these are considered too complex for use in ukcp09 at this time. if time series are required for a region, rather than for a point, then an approximation may be used where the user can designate a larger region (up to 1000 km2), and the coefficients used to generate weather for these larger than a single-square regions are taken to be the spatial averages of all the wg coefficients (the means, standard deviations and ivrs) for the selected squares. care must be taken in the interpretation of this series however, as it still corresponds to a single point, but a point which is representative, on average, of the region. the weather variables in the series are not areal-averaged values. care must also be taken that a homogeneous region is chosen, avoiding for example, large differences in elevation which may cause averaging of very different rainfall rates across the region. for regions larger than 1000 km2, we recommend direct use of the 11-member rcm simulations, available through link, when users require real spatial
What images are used to monitor vegetation and bodies of water?
to monitor vegetation and bodies of water, images from the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (modis) on board the terra satellite (terra-modis), provided by nasa, are used
How are the free high spatial images provided?
frequent images at high spatial resolution (250-metre spatial resolution) are made available free of charge. these are provided to the user community through the iri data library website at: http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/ sources/.usgs/.landdaac/.modis
Do the viewers have to travel to a particular site to monitor the vegetation?
the users can remotely: - view a colour composite where the vegetation appears in green, the bare soils in brown and the water in blue - compute long-term series of vegetation indices and compare them with historical data
to monitor vegetation and bodies of water, images from the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (modis) on board the terra satellite (terra-modis), provided by nasa, are used. frequent images at high spatial resolution (250-metre spatial resolution) are made available free of charge. these are provided to the user community through the iri data library website at: http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/ sources/.usgs/.landdaac/.modis/. the users can remotely: - view a colour composite where the vegetation appears in green, the bare soils in brown and the water in blue - compute long-term series of vegetation indices and compare them with historical data. in figure 5, the authors selected a location in north kenya and displayed the evolution of the ndvi. the time-series for the years 2005, 2006 and 2007 indicates that the vegetation index values between november and december 2006 and in january 2007 were greater than the values
What is one possible theory put forth as contributing to 'abrupt' climate change and why?
the possibility of abrupt climate change triggered by human perturbation of the climate system is frequently mentioned as a wild card in the climate-change debate: a card invoked both by those who urge stronger and earlier mitigative action than is currently being contemplated (keller et al 2000; mastrandrea schneider 2001) and also by those who argue that the unknowns in the earth system are too large to justify such early action (lomborg 2001
Where has the bulk of discussion for abrupt climate change and global warming taken place?
the possibility of abrupt climate change triggered by human perturbation of the climate system is frequently mentioned as a wild card in the climate-change debate: a card invoked both by those who urge stronger and earlier mitigative action than is currently being contemplated (keller et al 2000; mastrandrea schneider 2001) and also by those who argue that the unknowns in the earth system are too large to justify such early action (lomborg 2001
How are instability mechanisms and greenhouse emission interrelated?
human-related greenhouse-gas emissions may potentially trigger such instabilities
'abrupt' climate change, like 'dangerous' climate change, has been much discussed, but infrequently defined and only superficially analysed. the recent report from the us national research council (nrc 2002) is one major exception. the possibility of abrupt climate change triggered by human perturbation of the climate system is frequently mentioned as a wild card in the climate-change debate: a card invoked both by those who urge stronger and earlier mitigative action than is currently being contemplated (keller et al 2000; mastrandrea schneider 2001) and also by those who argue that the unknowns in the earth system are too large to justify such early action (lomborg 2001). much of the discussion about abrupt climate change and global warming has taken place in the media (e.g. figure 1) and in the popular literature (e.g. retallack 2001; see also the discussion about the role of pictures in communicating climate change by br"onnimann (2002)). in the uk this discussion has mostly revolved around the notion of sign-reversal of climate trends, from warming to cooling, linked to behaviour of the thermohaline circulation (thc). this possibility has been known about for 15 years or more (e.g. broecker 1987), although recent work has begun to elaborate the potential instability mechanisms (ganopolski rahmstorf 2001; clark et al 2002) and has shown how human-related greenhouse-gas emissions may potentially trigger such instabilities. yet we remain a long way from understanding the full sensitivity of the system and hence a long way from attaching probabilities to such outcomes. there has also been surprisingly little serious work done on exploring the implications of abrupt climate change for human society, whether in europe or elsewhere. for example, the chapter on the impacts, adaptation and vulnerability of climate change with respect to europe (kundzewicz parry 2001) in the third assessment report of the inter-governmental panel on climate change (ipcc) did not include an assessment of abrupt climate change or its impacts. in this paper we explore the question of abrupt climate change in terms of its potential implications for society, focusing on the uk and northwest europe and in
Where do two examples of the positive SST bias occur?
in the oceans adjacent to southern africa and south america
What is one option to reduce the positive temperature biases during boreal winter?
use a relationship between snow albedo and equivalent water depth that is more consistent with satellite observations
What can weaker surface stress cause?
weaker cooling of the ocean mixed layer
for these reasons, it will be important to reduce these biases in future versions of ccsm that include biogeochemistry. one option to reduce the positive temperature biases during boreal winter is to use a relationship between snow albedo and equivalent water depth that is more consistent with satellite observations (oleson et al. 2003). d. sst biases and related atmospheric issues in western coastal regions ccsm3 produces sea-surface temperatures for the western coastal regions that are warmer than observed (figure 5). experiments with prototypes of the coupled model suggest that 24 the biases in ssts can be caused by underestimates of surface stress parallel to the coast and by overestimates of surface insolation (large and danabasoglu 2005). the weaker surface stress results in weaker cooling of the ocean mixed layer, and the excess insolation results in too much solar heating of the upper ocean. these experiments also show that the biases in these areas affect the sst and precipitation over large portions of the atlantic and pacific basins. two examples of the positive sst biases occur in the oceans adjacent to southern africa and south america. the ccsm3 is compared in table 3 against observations and analyses for these two western coastal regions averaged over the annual cycle. in the coastal region adjacent to south america, ccsm3 overestimates the sst by 1.8c. while earlier generations of ccsm overestimated the surface insolation off south america by more than 50 wm
Which mountain was dangerous to climb during the summer heatwave in 2003?
the summer 2003 heatwave made the matterhorn too dangerous to climb
How many climbers were rescued?
more than 70 climbers had to be hauled from the mountain
Why is ice dangerous as it warms?
ice as it warms, but before it melts, may be more unstable than when it is turning to water
even the summer climbing industry in the alps is suffering. for the first time since records began in 1786, the summer 2003 heatwave made the matterhorn too dangerous to climb. the mountain was closed in august 2003, with its naked slopes covered with heaps of rubble and scree. two climbers died just trying to get to the restaurant at the start of the climbing routes. the permafrost that holds the mountain peaks together had melted to a depth of 7 feet (2.1 m), making ski lifts and cable cars unstable. the problems became apparent in july 2003, when an enormous rock avalanche hurtled down the mountain's east face, and within two hours another rocked the north face. more than 70 climbers had to be hauled from the mountain, one of the biggest mountaineering rescues in history. the mountain had actually begun to fall apart under their feet. ice as it warms, but before it melts, may be more unstable than when it is turning to water. there is a growing realization that there is going to be a lot more of this type of devastation in mountainous regions as the foundations of the mountains, and their ski lifts and cable cars, become unstable. 32
Do seasonal differences in availability and demand affect water use?
during the summer months, lower flow levels are projected to reduce hydroelectric generation potential, while more frequent and intense heat waves are expected to increase air-conditioner usage and therefore electricity demand
What is one reason demand for hydroelectric power increases during the summer?
demand for hydroelectric power exports is also likely to increase in the summer, due to increased summer cooling needs
Will increased demand lead to increased conflict over water use?
increased demand in any or all of these sectors would increase the conflict between alternative water uses, including in-stream needs to retain ecosystem sustainability. improvements in water use efficiency may be required to prevent the extinction of some aquatic species and the degradation of wetlands, rivers, deltas and estuaries
the seasonality of the projected changes, with respect to both the availability of and demands for water resources, is another important factor. for example, during the summer months, lower flow levels are projected to reduce hydroelectric generation potential, while more frequent and intense heat waves are expected to increase air-conditioner usage and therefore electricity demand. demand for hydroelectric power exports is also likely to increase in the summer, due to increased summer cooling needs. increased demand in any or all of these sectors would increase the conflict between alternative water uses, including in-stream needs to retain ecosystem sustainability. improvements in water use efficiency may be required to prevent the extinction of some aquatic species and the degradation of wetlands, rivers, deltas and estuaries.(38)
What can you see with MRI?
the mri exhibits an sacz-like structure that is not observed
What models can reproduce?
the models are, however, able to reproduce the observed maximum from the southwestern tip to the central andes, although it is still too wide
Which model is and exception and why?
the exception is the ipsl model that seems to be slow to transition from the winter to summer pattern
there is a large dispersion among models in their representation of tropical precipitation during this season. furthermore, the mri exhibits an sacz-like structure that is not observed. in addition, the inability of the models to reproduce the maximum in sesa (except the mpi) is also quite evident. the models are, however, able to reproduce the observed maximum from the southwestern tip to the central andes, although it is still too wide. 2.4. ond the onset of the rainy season over tropical south america is evident from observations. the spatial structure of the precipitation resembles that of summer, although weaker. the maximum in sesa is now merged with the tropical precipitation. hoffman [1975] showed that the maximum over the southwestern coast, while still evident, is at its annual minimum. all models reproduce the southward migration of both the itcz and the tropical precipitation. they also exhibit a sacz-like structure similar to that observed. the exception is the ipsl model that seems to be slow to transition from the winter to summer pattern. on the other hand, there are differences in the location and intensity of the tropical maximum, and in the subtropics most of the models have lower values than observed. in the extratropics, models represent to some extent the southward concentration of the precipitation along the southwestern coast.
What variants can alter the duration of each stage within the cycle?
the usual duration of each stage within the cycle can be altered as a function of the influent flow variations, the treatment needs and the sewage and biomass characteristics
How often does domestic sewage arrive at the treatment plant?
with domestic sewage, which arrives at the treatment plant 24 hours per day
Why is more than one tank necessary for domestic sewage?
more than one tank is necessary, since only the tank in the fill stage is apt to receive the incoming sewage
idle (cycle adjustment and removal of the excess sludge) the usual duration of each stage within the cycle can be altered as a function of the influent flow variations, the treatment needs and the sewage and biomass characteristics. the wasting of excess sludge generally occurs during the last stage (idle), whose purpose is to allow the adjustment of the stages within the operating cycles of each reactor. however, as this stage is optional or may be short, sludge wasting can happen in other phases of the process. the sludge wasting quantity and frequency are established in function with the performance requirements, in the same way as in the conventional continuous flow processes. the flowsheet of the process is greatly simplified due to the elimination of various units, compared with the continuous flow activated sludge systems. the only units in an sbr operating in the extended aeration mode are: screens grit chamber, reactors, sludge thickener (optional) and sludge drying (figure 4.29). with domestic sewage, which arrives at the treatment plant 24 hours per day, more than one tank is necessary, since only the tank in the fill stage is apt to receive the incoming sewage. there are some variants of the sequencing batch reactor systems related to its operation (continuous feeding and discontinuous supernatant withdrawal) as well as in the sequence and duration of the stages within each cycle. these variations may lead to additional simplifications in the process or to biological nutrient removal. overview of wastewater treatment systems 209
What can the current findings provide to practitioners?
useful information when working with a college-aged population
What does the article suggest to do when working with students of color?
when working with students of color, it might be helpful to incorporate an exploration of students' experiences with discrimination as part of a standard assessment procedure, similar to the manner in which we typically assess for trauma and abuse. furthermore, when working with individuals who report having experienced racial and/or ethnic discrimination, it might be helpful to use the experience of trauma as a framework in which the client can begin to make sense of their psychological processes. at a minimum, recognition of potential experiences of racial and/or ethnic discrimination might serve to facilitate the therapeutic relationship with students of color while offering other potential benefits (e.g., accurate assessment of psychological stressors; appreciation of coping style and resilience) for the counseling and/or therapeutic process
What is the conclusion of the research?
o this end, the present investigation offers tentative support for the notion that the psychological response to racial and/or ethnic discrimination can be understood from the perspective of trauma and traumatic stress and suggests that continued empirical efforts in this area are worth pursuing
of critical importance in the racial and/or ethnic discrimination literature is an understanding of the mechanism by which the stress associated with discrimination might evolve to a response consistent with traumatic stress, emotional injury, or psychopathology (see carter, 2007; williams mohammed, 2009). although the current findings identify the presence of an association between racial and/or ethnic discrimination and trauma, the actual pathway from discrimination to stress and, subsequently, to trauma has yet to be articulated. thus, an examination of variables that might moderate the association between discrimination and traumarelated symptoms would be an important undertaking. the constructs of spirituality (hunter lewis-coles, 2005), resilience (franklin, 2004), and racial socialization (bynum et al., 2007) are examples of variables that could warrant further investigation when examining racial and/or ethnic discrimination and traumarelated symptoms. beyond implications for future research, it is also worth noting that the current findings might also provide practitioners with useful information when working with a college-aged population. given the ubiquitous nature of racial and/or ethnic discrimination, when working with students of color, it might be helpful to incorporate an exploration of students' experiences with discrimination as part of a standard assessment procedure, similar to the manner in which we typically assess for trauma and abuse. furthermore, when working with individuals who report having experienced racial and/or ethnic discrimination, it might be helpful to use the experience of trauma as a framework in which the client can begin to make sense of their psychological processes. at a minimum, recognition of potential experiences of racial and/or ethnic discrimination might serve to facilitate the therapeutic relationship with students of color while offering other potential benefits (e.g., accurate assessment of psychological stressors; appreciation of coping style and resilience) for the counseling and/or therapeutic process. the negative impact of racial and/or ethnic discrimination on the psychological functioning of people of color is now widely acknowledged. in current research, researchers seek to provide a more precise articulation of the manner in which racial and/or ethnic discrimination influences psychological distress and to categorize the psychological outcomes associated with racism and discrimination. to this end, the present investigation offers tentative support for the notion that the psychological response to racial and/or ethnic discrimination can be understood from the perspective of trauma and traumatic stress and suggests that continued empirical efforts in this area are worth pursuing.
What is the use of the MaxEnt model?
we modeled potential distribution of the species studied using maxent models with default settings (elith et al., 2011; phillips, anderson, schapire, 2006). this method was chosen as maxent has been developed to process presence-only data and, in contrast to generalized linear models and other classification tools, does not need absence data in the theoretical assumptions, but uses background data (i.e., pseudoabsences
How the pseudo-efficiency point is calculated?
for each species, we randomly selected 10,000 background points as pseudoabsences. the maxent model searches for patterns of presences distinct from the background data. for that reason, the prevalence of background points makes the model more conservative because the model requires a stronger signal of presences than would be the case for equal proportions of presences and pseudoabsences (elith et al., 2011
Describe the redesigned event
the prevalence of background points was maintained by using the resampled occurrences dataset. models were built using 80% of the 2.50raster cells and the remaining 20% was used as a test set for model evaluation. as a criterion of model performance, we used area under receiver operator curve (auc) because it depends on true positive and true negative rates (i.e., rates of positive and negative overlapping of the current and projected ranges). maxent model output is the probability of species occurrence in each raster cell. therefore, to obtain the presence/absence output, we used as a table 2 overview of bioclimatic variables used in this study
we modeled potential distribution of the species studied using maxent models with default settings (elith et al., 2011; phillips, anderson, schapire, 2006). this method was chosen as maxent has been developed to process presence-only data and, in contrast to generalized linear models and other classification tools, does not need absence data in the theoretical assumptions, but uses background data (i.e., pseudoabsences). for each species, we randomly selected 10,000 background points as pseudoabsences. the maxent model searches for patterns of presences distinct from the background data. for that reason, the prevalence of background points makes the model more conservative because the model requires a stronger signal of presences than would be the case for equal proportions of presences and pseudoabsences (elith et al., 2011). the prevalence of background points was maintained by using the resampled occurrences dataset. models were built using 80% of the 2.50raster cells and the remaining 20% was used as a test set for model evaluation. as a criterion of model performance, we used area under receiver operator curve (auc) because it depends on true positive and true negative rates (i.e., rates of positive and negative overlapping of the current and projected ranges). maxent model output is the probability of species occurrence in each raster cell. therefore, to obtain the presence/absence output, we used as a table 2 overview of bioclimatic variables used in this study
What do the Beer and Williams (1995), Williams et al. (2001), and Cary (2002) studies report about climate change in Australia?
the potential impact of climate change on bushfire danger
How was the general increase in fire danger measured used in the studies?
mcarthur forest fire danger index
What conditions are expected to increase global warming, at least in Australia?
drying of fuel, and extremely hot summer and autumn days are conducive to fire spread
some studies of climate change do not report directly on agricultural production but nonetheless describe issues that do have implications for agriculture. for example, beer and williams (1995), williams et al. (2001), and cary (2002) report the potential impact of climate change on bushfire danger in australia. these studies each found a general increase in fire danger, as measured by the mcarthur forest fire danger index, with the enhanced greenhouse effect. extreme fire danger is highly correlated with periodic drought conditions, leading to drying of fuel, and extremely hot summer and autumn days are conducive to fire spread. both these conditions are expected to increase with global warming under all plausible scenarios, at least in southern australia (pittock 2003a). demographic changes related to climate change will also affect the pattern of regional demand for agricultural products. because australia's coastal fringe is less likely to experience the magnitude of climate change as projected for inland areas, its relative climatic attractiveness will increase, thereby affecting demographic shifts and altering the regional demand for agricultural commodities.
What will changes in rainfall have a major effect on?
changes in rainfall will have a major effect on intertidal wetlands of the gbr
What does rainfall influence?
rainfall influences species composition, diversity and productivity of intertidal wetlands. freshwater inputs to intertidal wetlands reduce salinity, increase the water content of soils and deliver sediments and nutrients creating conditions that are favourable for plant physiological function168,18. rainfall also influences groundwater inputs, which can lead to the maintenance of soil surface elevation through subsurface swelling of soils182,151. connectivity of habitats with flushing accumulated material from salt flats to mangroves and nearshore waters is also strongly influenced by rainfall141 (see chapter 19
What will increases in frequency of intense rainfall, combined with land use change in catchments, lead to?
increases in frequency of intense rainfall events combined with land use change in catchments will increase sedimentation which will increase the availability of suitable mangrove habitat and enhance mangrove growth114, however excessive sedimentation events could result in forest losses80
changes in rainfall will have a major effect on intertidal wetlands of the gbr. the predicted changes in rainfall with climate change on the gbr are complex, with increases in rainfall predicted in some regions and decreases in others. there are also predicted to be increases in the intensity of rainfall events that are likely to influence erosion and other processes in catchments of the gbr (lough chapter 2) having flow on effects on intertidal wetlands. rainfall influences species composition, diversity and productivity of intertidal wetlands. freshwater inputs to intertidal wetlands reduce salinity, increase the water content of soils and deliver sediments and nutrients creating conditions that are favourable for plant physiological function168,18. rainfall also influences groundwater inputs, which can lead to the maintenance of soil surface elevation through subsurface swelling of soils182,151. connectivity of habitats with flushing accumulated material from salt flats to mangroves and nearshore waters is also strongly influenced by rainfall141 (see chapter 19). in the gbr and other locations, sediment delivery to the estuary co-varies with rainfall65 and increases with human development of the catchment94. sedimentation increases surface elevation of wetland soils relative to sea level as well as increasing habitat for mangrove colonisation (eg trinity inlet, cairns71,74). in addition to increasing soil surface elevation, delivery of sediments has a direct positive effect on plant growth135,104,78,114, although it can lead to reduced diversity of fauna78 and tree mortality if sedimentation is excessive80. increases in frequency of intense rainfall events combined with land use change in catchments will increase sedimentation which will increase the availability of suitable mangrove habitat and enhance mangrove growth114, however excessive sedimentation events could result in forest losses80.
What is a flaw in the Kyoto Protocol?
he protocol fails to acknowledge the uncertainties surrounding climate change and requires countries to commit themselves to achieving rigid targets and timetables for emissions reductions
What type of climate change policy does the author suggest would be beneficial?
a hybrid climate change policy has much to offer
What is one reason why a hybrid climate change policy would be successful?
it is flexible enough to deal with the enormous uncertainties regarding climate change
because so little real action has been taken on climate change to date, an opportunity remains for an efficient and practical policy to be adopted. a hybrid climate change policy has much to offer. it is flexible enough to deal with the enormous uncertainties regarding climate change. it provides individual governments with an instrument to limit and to channel the distributional effects of the policy, reducing the obstacles to ratification. moreover, it creates incentives for governments to monitor and to enforce the policy within their own borders. it is a practical policy that would reduce greenhouse gases in a cost-effective manner. international negotiations to date have produced a very different policy, the kyoto protocol, which is deeply flawed. the protocol fails to acknowledge the uncertainties surrounding climate change and requires countries to commit themselves to achieving rigid targets and timetables for emissions reductions, even though the cost of doing so could be very high, and the benefits are uncertain. the protocol never had any real chance of ratification by the u.s. senate and, in
Both mean contemporary annual temperatures and historic temperature stability between the LGM and the present significantly predict species richness of reptiles and amphibians in Europe (p B 0.01; see spatially explicit simultaneous autoregressive (SAR) analysis, Table 1). Species richness among reptiles is also significantly correlated with contemporary precipitation (p B 0.05), whereas species richness among both reptiles and amphibians is significantly related to ''historic'' precipitation stability (p B 0.01).
both mean contemporary annual temperatures and historic temperature stability between the lgm and the present significantly predict species richness of reptiles and amphibians in europe (p b 0.01; see spatially explicit simultaneous autoregressive (sar) analysis, table 1). species richness among reptiles is also significantly correlated with contemporary precipitation (p b 0.05), whereas species richness among both reptiles and amphibians is significantly related to ''historic'' precipitation stability (p b 0.01
What is contemporary?
both mean contemporary annual temperatures and historic temperature stability between the lgm and the present significantly predict species richness of reptiles and amphibians in europe (p b 0.01; see spatially explicit simultaneous autoregressive (sar) analysis, table 1). species richness among reptiles is also significantly correlated with contemporary precipitation (p b 0.05), whereas species richness among both reptiles and amphibians is significantly related to ''historic'' precipitation stability (p b 0.01
What are annual temperature?
both mean contemporary annual temperatures and historic temperature stability between the lgm and the present significantly predict species richness of reptiles and amphibians in europe (p b 0.01; see spatially explicit simultaneous autoregressive (sar) analysis, table 1). species richness among reptiles is also significantly correlated with contemporary precipitation (p b 0.05), whereas species richness among both reptiles and amphibians is significantly related to ''historic'' precipitation stability (p b 0.01
both mean contemporary annual temperatures and historic temperature stability between the lgm and the present significantly predict species richness of reptiles and amphibians in europe (p b 0.01; see spatially explicit simultaneous autoregressive (sar) analysis, table 1). species richness among reptiles is also significantly correlated with contemporary precipitation (p b 0.05), whereas species richness among both reptiles and amphibians is significantly related to ''historic'' precipitation stability (p b 0.01). because contemporary temperature values are highly correlated with historic temperature stability (r  0.74, fig. 1), partial regression analysis was used to partition the effects of contemporary climate (both the energy and water-energy variants) and historic climatic stability. variation due to historic climate stability was seen to be greater than variation explained due to factors
What happens at the Harvard Forest?
at harvard forest, the model overpredicts increases in timing of observed increases in canopy leaf area
How does the modeled  changes in canopy greenness track?
modeled changes in canopy greenness generally track well with observed changes in canopy leaf area at all sites
What does the map of global climatic constraints resolve?
the map of global climatic constraints to foliar phenology is shown in fig. 5. this map resolves major global patterns of phenology while also revealing some interesting patterns of interactive effects. black areas in the tropics show regions where climate is essentially aseasonal; red areas show where water limits dominate foliar phenology; blue shows where minimum temperatures most limit phenology. blue-green and greenblue areas have co-limitations of photoperiod and temperatures. the patterns depicted are consistent with the global distribution of biomes that exhibit vastly different leaf phenological strategie
gsi values are observed during that period and the model predicts a clear leaf flush as conditions become more favorable. at harvard forest, the model overpredicts increases in timing of observed increases in canopy leaf area. however, modeled changes in canopy greenness generally track well with observed changes in canopy leaf area at all sites. the results of model estimates of leaf onset compared with observations is shown in table 3 and leaf offset comparisons are shown in table 4. there was good agreement between the modeled leaf onset and offset dates and observations at harvard forest. the mae of predicted onset date compared with observed mean onset date over 8 years was 3.38 days and the mae of predicted offset date over 7 years was 2.29 days. these accuracies should not be overstated because a simple mean yields an mae of 4.25 and 2.14 days for onset and offset, respectively. however, observed onset dates were twice as variable as observed offset dates (standard deviation of 6 days for onset compared with 3 days for offset), while prediction errors only differed by about 1 day, suggesting that the model is robust to interannual variability. this suggests that even though the model predicts continuous changes in canopy activity, it still serves well as a model to predict the start and end dates of the foliage period. the map of global climatic constraints to foliar phenology is shown in fig. 5. this map resolves major global patterns of phenology while also revealing some interesting patterns of interactive effects. black areas in the tropics show regions where climate is essentially aseasonal; red areas show where water limits dominate foliar phenology; blue shows where minimum temperatures most limit phenology. blue-green and greenblue areas have co-limitations of photoperiod and temperatures. the patterns depicted are consistent with the global distribution of biomes that exhibit vastly different leaf phenological strategies.
What are some effective strategies for changing high-cost behaviors with greater longterm impact?
financial and structural strategies seem to be more effective for changing high-cost behaviors with greater longterm impact (e.g., transport mode choices
How could the effectiveness of a strategy vary with different charaterisctis of the target individuals?
the effectiveness of a strategy also varies with characteristics of the target individuals; for instance, urban participants may respond differently to an intervention to promote sustainable transportation than rural participants, and other factors, such as guilt and socioeconomic status, also may influence the effectiveness of the intervention across different subsets of participants
Which is the third step in designing an intervention strategy?
the third step is to design an intervention strategy that best suits the target behavior. for example, those aimed at changing attitudes, personal norms, and values seem to be most effective for low-cost behaviors (e.g., turning off unused lights
the third step is to design an intervention strategy that best suits the target behavior. for example, those aimed at changing attitudes, personal norms, and values seem to be most effective for low-cost behaviors (e.g., turning off unused lights).47,48financial and structural strategies seem to be more effective for changing high-cost behaviors with greater longterm impact (e.g., transport mode choices).44,49the effectiveness of a strategy also varies with characteristics of the target individuals; for instance, urban participants may respond differently to an intervention to promote sustainable transportation than rural participants, and other factors, such as guilt and socioeconomic status, also may influence the effectiveness of the intervention across different subsets of participants.
C Warm temperate climates?
 3*c tmin 18*c cs warm temperate climate with dry summer psmin pwmin
3*C Ds Snow climate with dry summer Psmin Pwmin, Pwmax 3 Psmin and Psmin 40 mm Dw Snow climate with what?
dry winter pwmin psmin and psmax 10 pwmin df snow climate
c warm temperate climates - 3*c tmin 18*c cs warm temperate climate with dry summer psmin pwmin, pwmax 3 psmin and psmin 40 mm cw warm temperate climate with dry winter pwmin psmin and psmax 10 pwmin cf warm temperate climate, fully humid neither cs nor cw d snow climates tmin <= - 3*c ds snow climate with dry summer psmin pwmin, pwmax 3 psmin and psmin 40 mm dw snow climate with dry winter pwmin psmin and psmax 10 pwmin df snow climate, fully humid neither ds nor dw e polar climates tmax 10*c et tundra climate 0*c <= tmax 10*c ef frost climate tmax 0*c
At which pattern North Atlantic and European Cyclones are characterized?
in djf, the response of north atlantic and european cyclones is characterized by a tripolar pattern, rather than by a poleward shift
In multomodel mean, number of cyclones decreases in which area?
in the multimodel mean, the number of cyclones decreases in the norwegian sea
At what percentage number of cyclones has decreased?
the total number of cyclones decreases 2 3.6% 6 0.6
in djf, the response of north atlantic and european cyclones is characterized by a tripolar pattern, rather than by a poleward shift. in the multimodel mean, the number of cyclones decreases in the norwegian sea, while a small, but significant, increase is found over the british isles (3% 6 2%). here, all the presented uncertainties are 90% confidence intervals in the mean response caused by internal variability in the model runs, and not the spread in the model responses. a larger reduction in the number of cyclones is found in the mediterranean sea 2 12% 6 2%). the total number of cyclones decreases 2 3.6% 6 0.6%).
where did A majority of the information on the effects of climate change on forest disturbances extract ?
a majority of the information extracted from the literature (83.1%) pertained to temperate and boreal ecosystems
what is the majority approaches of studies?
the majority of studies used empirical approaches (48.8%), with 37.8% applying simulation models, and only a relatively small portion of the available information coming from manipulative experiments (13.4
how does Methodological approach ?
methodological approaches varied distinctly between disturbance agents, with findings on biotic agents more frequently derived from experiments (33.6%) than those on abiotic agents (4.2
the disturbance database the amount of information available on the effects of climate change on forest disturbances varied strongly with disturbance agent and biome (table s1). a majority of the information extracted from the literature (83.1%) pertained to temperate and boreal ecosystems (figure s1). fire was the disturbance agent most frequently addressed in the reviewed literature (39.4%), followed by insects (23.7%), drought (16.4%), and pathogens (13.9%). the majority of studies used empirical approaches (48.8%), with 37.8% applying simulation models, and only a relatively small portion of the available information coming from manipulative experiments (13.4%). methodological approaches varied distinctly between disturbance agents, with findings on biotic agents more frequently derived from experiments (33.6%) than those on abiotic agents (4.2%). however, approximately half of the analyzed studies for both agent groups used empirical approaches (abiotic agents: 48.0%, biotic agents: 50.5%).
What is a source of fertilization for maize production or (corn production)?
nitrogen fertilization is one of the most important inputs for maize production
In what regions is maize produced?
maize production in many regions of asia, and north and south america
What represents a significant cost for farmers in the Asia, North and South American regions?
nitrogen fertilization is one of the most important inputs for maize production in many regions of asia, and north and south america
an important mitigation strategy for climate change is a reduction on the reliance of chemical inputs while maintaining yields. nitrogen fertilization is one of the most important inputs for maize production in many regions of asia, and north and south america, and represents a significant production cost for the farmer. the price of nitrogen has quadrupled since 2000 piessel and thirtle, 2009 ), and in the united states, the recent rise in the fertilizer prices is estimated to have increased production costs by 15% mitchell, 2008 ). in the past 40 years, n fertilizer consumption has steadily increased, for example, latin america has seen an 11-fold increase in n fertilizer consumption ladha et al. 2005 ), with total n fertilizer consumption in central and south america reaching 1.31 and 8.41 m t faostat, 2010 ). in contrast, nitrogen use efficiency has steadily declined, with cereal crop
Who is included as an institutional investor?
institutional investors include insurance companies, pension funds, and foundations and endowments
How much money is managed by this group?
this group manages more than usd 70 trillion48 in assets
How much institutional investors contributed in 2012?
in 2012, institutional investors contributed approximately usd 0.4 billion of total global climate finance flows largely to new renewable energy projects
institutional investors include insurance companies, pension funds, and foundations and endowments. this group manages more than usd 70 trillion48 in assets, and on the surface, has risk and return requirements that appear to align with clean energy projects. however, current contributions to climate finance are far below the potential. in 2012, institutional investors contributed approximately usd 0.4 billion of total global climate finance flows largely to new renewable energy projects. they invested directly into project debt or project equity, always accompanied by some form of public backing or support. in our sample, all institutional investors' money went to developed countries (including usd 280 million to
Sally A. Describe Carlos' claim?
sally a. carless journal of business and psychology; summer 2004; 18, 4; abi/inform global pg. 405 reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. further reproduction prohibited without permission. reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. further reproduction prohibited without permission. reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. further reproduction prohibited without permission. reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. further reproduction prohibited without permission. reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. further reproduction prohibited without permission
Describe the copyright owner properties?
reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. further reproduction prohibited without permission. reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. further reproduction prohibited without permission. reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. further reproduction prohibited without permission. reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. further reproduction prohibited without permission. reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. further reproduction prohibited without permission. reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. further reproduction prohibited without permission. reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. further reproduction prohibited without permission
What is the  permission of the copyright owner
further reproduction prohibited without permission. reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. further reproduction prohibited without permission. reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. further reproduction prohibited without permission. reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. further reproduction prohibited without permission. reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. further reproduction prohibited without permission
sally a. carless journal of business and psychology; summer 2004; 18, 4; abi/inform global pg. 405 reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. further reproduction prohibited without permission. reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. further reproduction prohibited without permission. reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. further reproduction prohibited without permission. reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. further reproduction prohibited without permission. reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. further reproduction prohibited without permission. reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. further reproduction prohibited without permission. reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. further reproduction prohibited without permission. reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. further reproduction prohibited without permission. reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. further reproduction prohibited without permission. reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. further reproduction prohibited without permission. reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. further reproduction prohibited without permission. reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. further reproduction prohibited without permission. reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. further reproduction prohibited without permission. reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. further reproduction prohibited without permission. reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. further reproduction prohibited without permission. reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. further reproduction prohibited without permission. reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. further reproduction prohibited without permission. reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. further reproduction prohibited without permission. reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. further reproduction prohibited without permission. reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. further reproduction prohibited without permission.
What C and E indicate?
67) where c and e indicate condensation and evaporation, respectively
Where the importanceof Sdiff and Shyd is more discussed?
the importance of . sdiff and . shyd in the context of thermodynamic theories of moist convection is extensively discussed in pauluis and held (2002b) and pauluis (2010
How can be described the impact of the water vapor on the production of kinetic energy in deep convection?
the impact of water vapor on the production of kinetic energy in deep convection can be described as a steam engine and it is to lower the maximum possible amount of work which can produced by an equivalent carnot cycle emanuel and bister 1996; renn`o and ingersoll 1996) acting between the same temperature reservoirs. an indirect estimate of (67) can be obtained from the entropy budget for water . sw
dajv,zr ln h. (67) where c and e indicate condensation and evaporation, respectively, and pw is the partial pressure of the water vapor. the importance of . sdiff and . shyd in the context of thermodynamic theories of moist convection is extensively discussed in pauluis and held (2002b) and pauluis (2010). the impact of water vapor on the production of kinetic energy in deep convection can be described as a steam engine and it is to lower the maximum possible amount of work which can produced by an equivalent carnot cycle emanuel and bister 1996; renn`o and ingersoll 1996) acting between the same temperature reservoirs. an indirect estimate of (67) can be obtained from the entropy budget for water . sw 
what is the most important restoring ecosystem process?
protecting or restoring important ecosystem processes like river channel migration
how does the Respondents regarded the program's short-term approach ?
respondents regarded the program's short-term approach to replacing roads in the same location, rather than relocating them to more stable areas, as a lost opportunity to take action to adapt to the likelihood of more frequent and larger floods resulting from climate change
what does the interview results suggested?
the interview results suggest that the perceived major barriers to getting adaptation projects off the ground are more related to internal organizational processes than legislative barriers
northern spotted owl and bull trout salvelinus confluentus ), and participants expressed concern about the prospect of facing difficult tradeoffs in the future, such as being forced to choose between protecting endangered species and protecting or restoring important ecosystem processes like river channel migration. respondents also believed the nps organic act and the wilderness act had high potential to hinder adaptation. these laws emphasize preservation and naturalness and have led to agency policies of minimal intervention and management in wilderness areas and in national parks. these hands-off types of policies are perceived as potential barriers to implementing certain proposed adaptation strategies that require extensive management intervention and manipulation to achieve adaptation goals. in particular, respondents noted that the wilderness act's prohibition against infrastructure development and use of mechanized equipment in designated wilderness areas, which can comprise millions of acres of a national park or forest, may preclude certain types of adaptation projects. examples discussed included situations where, without heavy moving equipment, stream channels destroyed by floods could not be properly restored, and where roads continually washed out by recurring floods could not be relocated because they are bordered on both sides by a wilderness area. respondents believed that the emergency roads program had the potential to enable road infrastructure adaptation by providing funding for projects to address recurring flood damage to roads such as through road relocation and culvert upsizing. however, participants indicated that the program is currently a hindrance because the federal highways administration generally only authorizes replacement of damaged roads in the original locations and is reluctant to approve projects to upgrade roads in anticipation of increased future flooding due to climate change. respondents regarded the program's short-term approach to replacing roads in the same location, rather than relocating them to more stable areas, as a lost opportunity to take action to adapt to the likelihood of more frequent and larger floods resulting from climate change. they noted that the program could become more supportive of adaptation if the federal highways administration changed its internal policy to allow more funding for road relocation. one quarter of usfs respondents believed nfma could enable implementation because it provides a structure and process for long-range strategic planning, while another quarter believed it has the potential to hinder implementation of climate change adaptation strategies because forest plans could not be revised quickly or easily to incorporate new, relevant scientific findings related to climate change and likely impacts on natural resources. the hindering and enabling characteristics of current environmental laws will become more evident as ecosystem managers implement adaptation more extensively. at the time of our interviews, individual units were still in the initial planning stages and respondents did not report any examples of completed adaptation projects, so their responses reflect future expectations rather than direct experience with implementation. because the nps and usfs were still in the early stages of planning for adaptation, other factors may become more or less relevant as they begin on-the-ground implementation. for example, the transjurisdictional barriers identified in fig. 3, namely "ownership mosaic" and "partners' inertia to change", would likely be cited by a larger number of respondents if planning and projects were further along (thomas 2003). further, managers and staff would likely have had more variable responses if adaptation plans and projects had been more advanced, as their distinct organizational roles and responsibilities shape their perspectives on implementation and their perceptions of relevant barriers or enablers. the interview results suggest that the perceived major barriers to getting adaptation projects off the ground are more related to internal organizational processes than legislative barriers. although certain laws were viewed as barriers, most agency employees prefer the certainty of dealing with existing laws rather than changing them in response to climate change. results show a strong preference to work within the existing legal structure but update internal operating procedures to enable more flexible management. internal policy guidance and support for implementation within the usfs, respondents indicated an overall awareness of the importance of climate change adaptation in their agency, although the majority (69%) believed that the policy mandate they had
From where did the first evidence for an ecosystem-level impact of heat-induced within-organism oxygen limitation come from?
a study in eelpout zoarces viviparus in the north sea
When does species abundance fall in the Wadden Sea?
upon exposure to extreme summer temperatures
Which study shows that species do not grow beyond a thermally set size limit in the German Wadden Sea?
portner and knust, 2007
in aquatic, specifically marine, environments the emerging knowledge of these principles would support explanations of shifts in species composition (regime shifts) at the ecosystem level, of shifts in biogeography or of changes in species interaction and in food web structure (portner and farrell, 2008). the first evidence for an ecosystem-level impact of heat-induced within-organism oxygen limitation came from a study in eelpout zoarces viviparus in the north sea, where the species exists at the limit of its acclimatization capacity, i.e. on the warm side of their thermal niche. species abundance in the wadden sea falls upon exposure to extreme summer temperatures. this occurs in the same temperature range where growth performance decreases. large individuals are affected most by the heat stress as predicted from the allometry of oxygen limitation (cf. portner, 2002b). the study by portner and knust (portner and knust, 2007) showed the link between thermally limited cardio-circulatory performance and aerobic scope and the onset of reduced growth performance and abundance in the natural environment, the german wadden sea. the study also showed that the species does not grow beyond a thermally set size limit in this area (portner and knust, 2007). this matches observations in cod, where between juveniles and adults, thermal windows shrink with increasing body size (portner et al., 2008). the narrowest thermal windows would in fact be expected in larval stages and in large spawning adults. applicability of these principles to early life-stages was demonstrated in larval stages of crustaceans (storch et al., 2009). in adult spawners, narrow windows would result from the oxygen demand of large egg or sperm masses which form yet another tissue to be supplied with oxygen (portner and farrell, 2008). these two life-stages may be those reflecting the sensitive bottlenecks at the ecosystem level. changes in window widths with life history may in
What does this article examine?
this paper examines the consequences of various attitudes towards climate damages through stochastic optimal control models
What is a technical option?
the choice of a given proxy of climate change risks is actually more than a technical option
What are you motivated by?
it is essentially motivated by the degree of distrust regarding the legitimacy of an assessment of climate damages and the possibility of providing in due time reliable and non controversial estimates
:this paper examines the consequences of various attitudes towards climate damages through stochastic optimal control models: cost-efficiency for a given temperature ceiling; cost-benefit analysis with a "pure preference for current climate regime" and full cost-benefit analysis. the choice of a given proxy of climate change risks is actually more than a technical option. it is essentially motivated by the degree of distrust regarding the legitimacy of an assessment of climate damages and the possibility of providing in due time reliable and non controversial estimates. our results demonstrate that a) for early decades abatement, the difference between various decision-making frameworks appears to matter less than the difference between stochastic and non stochastic approach given the cascade of uncertainty from emissions to damages; b) in a stochastic approach, non-catastrophic singularities in the damage function are sufficient to significantly increase earlier optimal abatements; c) a window of opportunity for action exists up to 2040: abatements further delayed may induce significant regret in case of bad news about climate response or singularities in damages. keywords cost-efficiency, cost-benefit, climate sensitivity, climate change damages, uncertainty, optimal climate policy, decision making frameworks.
Does the sensitivity test impact the participation rate or the actual global carbon price for any of the regimes?
there are virtually no impacts of this sensitivity test on the participation rate or on the actual global carbon price for any of the regimes
What results were shown by the sensitivity test that varies the abatement-cost function parameter by a factor of 3?
the results showed considerable sensitivity, especially for global scc of $50 and $100
Did varying the optimal tariff over a range of a factor of 6 have any impact on the outcomes?
this had virtually no impact on the outcomes
k. sensitivity analysis how sensitive are the results to alternative parameters? the sensitivity analyses are presented in detail in the online appendix, and the results are summarized here. i examine the impact of three different sets of parameters. the first is alternative estimates of the regional distribution of the global scc. there are virtually no impacts of this sensitivity test on the participation rate or on the actual global carbon price for any of the regimes. the second sensitivity test is for the parameter of the abatement-cost function, which is varied by a factor of 3. the results showed considerable sensitivity, especially for global scc of $50 and $100. the optimal tariff was varied over a range of a factor of 6. this had virtually no impact on the outcomes. the main variable that affects the outcome is the global social cost of carbon, as shown in the figures and tables. those familiar with the literature on climate-change economics will wonder what happened to the discount rate, which is critical in virtually all areas. the answer is that the discount rate will primarily affect the global and national sccs, but has little effect on the outcomes conditional on the sccs. for example, a lower discount rate will raise the estimated global scc, perhaps from $12.5 to $25. this will lead to a higher target carbon price, higher emissions reductions, and lower annual
What Unemployed means?
unemployed means: means are not sufficiently employed although there is an operator to whom the necessary means are available. barriers of this type mostly lie in misaligned economic incentives. when an adaptation has positive externalities for other actors, the operator may choose to under-adapt if she considers that other exposure units that benefit from the adaptation are not contributing their share to the means
moral hazard situations?
there are also moral hazard situations where perverse incentives encourage actions that increase the impacts of climate change. for example, settlements may be (re)built in areas where there is a high risk of flooding by investors (exposure units) who expect to receive compensation from a public agency (as operator) in the case of a disaster
Economically speaking, all these problems raise what ?
economically speaking, all these problems raise the transaction costs of information collection, monitoring and enforcement. this increases the necessary means, and can result in a shortfall of available means. these proposed barriers and their description give a flavor of how the framework can be used to be very precise about further barriers to adaptation, e.g. resulting from different interests of operators and receptors, or specific combinations of indirect and facilitating adaptations
unemployed means: means are not sufficiently employed although there is an operator to whom the necessary means are available. barriers of this type mostly lie in misaligned economic incentives. when an adaptation has positive externalities for other actors, the operator may choose to under-adapt if she considers that other exposure units that benefit from the adaptation are not contributing their share to the means. conversely, it might happen that an operator overadapts when the action has negative external effects on other exposure units. there are also moral hazard situations where perverse incentives encourage actions that increase the impacts of climate change. for example, settlements may be (re)built in areas where there is a high risk of flooding by investors (exposure units) who expect to receive compensation from a public agency (as operator) in the case of a disaster. complex actor relations: it might also be that the network of exposure units, operators and receptors is too complex to come to decisions. since climate change has very diverse effects which are relevant for many exposure units in different ways, there are likely to be many decisional conflicts. these might be amplified by institutional arrangements that are not tailored to respond to the new challenges posed by climate change. moreover, when new problems arise, it is not always ex ante clear who the relevant actors are. economically speaking, all these problems raise the transaction costs of information collection, monitoring and enforcement. this increases the necessary means, and can result in a shortfall of available means. these proposed barriers and their description give a flavor of how the framework can be used to be very precise about further barriers to adaptation, e.g. resulting from different interests of operators and receptors, or specific combinations of indirect and facilitating adaptations.
What does the model estimate?
the model estimates the probability of dengue outbreak occurrence
What does the black line indicate?
the black line indicates the annual dengue incidence rate
What does the ROC indicate?
the roc curve (figure s4b) indicates the rates of true and false positives for different detection thresholds. (tif
svm predictive model of dengue outbreaks in noumea (complete dataset). the model estimates the probability of dengue outbreak occurrence (red bars) each year y according to the quarterly mean of maximal relative humidity during october- november-december (max rh_ond), and the monthly mean of maximal temperature in december (max temp_december) of the year y1. results obtained with the complete dataset are presented in figure s4a. the black line indicates the annual dengue incidence rate, and black diamonds indicate epidemic years according to the median method. the roc curve (figure s4b) indicates the rates of true and false positives for different detection thresholds. (tif)
What are the conditions that maximize storm activity?
storm activity is maximized when obliquity is low and perihelion is on november 13th (may 14th aphelion
changes in surface climate are intimately related to changes in large-scale circulation, including the number and intensity of storms that we term  storm activity  one measure of storm activity is the 2.5 to 6 day bandpass-filtered variance of the height of the 500 mb pressure surface (blackmon 1976). the time series of annual mean storm activity averaged between 45  n and 65  n exhibits the influences of obliquity and precession (fig. 7). storm activity is maximized when obliquity is low and perihelion is on november 13th (may 14th aphelion) (table 1). the contrast between the highlatitude and low-latitude sat responses to orbital forcing has a significant impact on the strength of the zonal winds and storm activity. as was noted earlier, orbital configurations in which obliquity is low or aphelion is in late spring aphelion result in relatively large highlatitude cooling in late fall and early winter (fig. 3). insolation anomalies associated with this orbital configuration also warm the low latitudes during the same season. as a consequence, low obliquity and late spring aphelion lead to the largest enhancement of the
Polimictic Many circulations per year are?
usually shallow lakes with daily circulations
For warm regions (the main focus of this book), the prevailing mixing patterns are ?
either warm monomictic or polimictic
The variables that most significantly affect the mixing pattern are those related with what?
depth
polimictic many circulations per year usually shallow lakes with daily circulations, unprotected from wind action, and located in warmer regions. influence from daily temperature variations. day hours: stratification. night hours: cooling of upper layer and mixing. b) meromictic lakes circulation does not occur at the whole water column bottom layer (monimolimnion): stagnated due to high concentration of dissolved substances. little influence from temperature. c) amictic lakes no circulation usually ice-covered lakes at very high altitudes in equatorial regions or high latitudes. for warm regions (the main focus of this book), the prevailing mixing patterns are either warm monomictic or polimictic the variables that most significantly affect the mixing pattern are those related with depth (mean depth, maximum depth, relative depth) (von sperling et al, 2002).
known as the strongest quasi-oscillatory mode of variability in the coupled ocean
el nino
the model with low stratospheric resolution underestimated what?
the amplitudes of these anomalies
The numerical description of the " stratospheric bridge " teleconnection outlined above require what?
models with a well resolved stratosphere and a realistic representation of el nino structure and variability
el nino is known as the strongest quasi-oscillatory mode of variability in the coupled ocean - atmosphere system and has attracted immense attention, especially since the very strong event in 1982 - 1983 and its apparent worldwide effects on weather and climate. while early analysis ropelewski and halpert 1987; halpert and ropelewski 1992] showed anomalies spreading nearly globally, europe seemed to be unaffected by el ninos. this was challenged in several more recent publications (for a comprehensive review, see bronnimann [2007]). merkel and latif [2002] discussed model results showing that during an el nino event weather anomalies are prominent over europe that are typically consistent with a negative phase of the north atlantic oscillation (nao). this corresponds to the finding of a number of researchers [e.g., bronnimann 2007, and references therein; ineson and scaife 2009] that during el nino events the winter stratospheric polar vortex is weaker than normal, a situation that is indeed also favorable for the establishment of a negative nao phase [e.g., perlwitz and graf 1995]. so, it seems that the effects of el nino on stratospheric circulation in boreal winter, caused by enhanced planetary wave generation in the tropics and subsequent vertical propagation into higher atmospheric layers, is responsible for the teleconnection between the tropical pacific and the midlatitude north atlantic. the numerical description of the " stratospheric bridge " teleconnection outlined above requires models with a well resolved stratosphere and a realistic representation of el nino structure and variability. comparing the performances of a climate model with and without a highly resolved stratosphere, cagnazzo and manzini [2009] found that both model configurations captured the observed weaker polar stratospheric vortex, high surface pressure over the arctic, and low surface pressure over western and central europe and the north pacific. however, the model with low stratospheric resolution underestimated the amplitudes of these anomalies. based on simulations with an intermediate climate model with high stratospheric resolution, bell et al. [2009] suggested that indeed el nino results in a weaker stratospheric polar vortex, but that there is an upper limit of el nino intensity above which the stratospheric effects are less important and tropospheric mechanisms dominate. this is somewhat counterintuitive if only the stratospheric bridge were at work, since one would expect that a stronger el nino, i.e., higher positive sea surface temperature anomalies
What have been pressure groups vocal about?
in fact, some pressure groups that have previously been vocal opponents of stringent political action to reduce greenhouse gases (such as the cato institute in the united states) have indicated their support for geoengineering
How many advocates argue about the cost of geoengineering?
30 advocates argue that the cost of geoengineering-- in terms of gross domestic product--is substantially less than other mitigation options
What term does the royal society uses for emissions reductions?
the royal society refers to this as a "moral hazard" argument--the phenomenon whereby people who feel "insured" against a risk may take greater risks
in fact, some pressure groups that have previously been vocal opponents of stringent political action to reduce greenhouse gases (such as the cato institute in the united states) have indicated their support for geoengineering as a "cost effective" method of tackling climate change.30 advocates argue that the cost of geoengineering-- in terms of gross domestic product--is substantially less than other mitigation options (although the etc group has dubbed geoengineering the "big mac" of climate change responses--fast, unhealthy, and deceptively cheap in the short term).31 this suggests that as awareness of geoengineering's potential grows, some powerful economic and ideological interests will lobby strongly for it. at a political level, therefore, geoengineering might be considered a dangerous distraction (with momentum of its own) from the task of mitigation through more traditional methods of emissions reductions. the royal society refers to this as a "moral hazard" argument--the phenomenon whereby people who feel "insured" against a risk may take greater risks (i.e., mitigate less) than they would otherwise be prepared to
Which type of fish did Perry carry out a study on?
perry et al. (2005) examined long-term, climate-related changes in demersal fish
Did the sea temperature increase or decrease?
fish responded markedly to recent increases in sea temperature
How many years has taken to see a redistribution of harbour porpoises phocoena in the north sea?
european atlantic continental shelf suggests there has also been a redistribution of harbour porpoises phocoena phocoena in the north sea over the last 10 years
c (worms et al. 2005). as it is to be expected that predator demography will be affected by prey, changes in prey distribution or abundance may precede shifts or declines in predator populations. on a large scale it is predicted that colder water species will shift towards the poles and, ultimately, this will probably result in a reduced global range for these species. perry et al. (2005) examined long-term, climate-related changes in demersal fish in the north sea. they found that both exploited and nonexploited fish responded markedly to recent increases in sea temperature, with nearly two-thirds of species shifting their mean latitude or depth (or both) over a 25-year period. there is some evidence that predators are following the same pattern. data for cetacean strandings and sighting frequency and relative abundance in north-west scotland suggested a range expansion of common dolphins delphinus delphis (a warmer water species) and a decrease in range of white-beaked dolphins lagenorhynchus albirostris and this may be the first direct evidence that this pole-ward shift is happening in a cetacean species (macleod et al. 2005). a recent large-scale survey of the european atlantic continental shelf suggests there has also been a redistribution of harbour porpoises phocoena phocoena in the north sea over the last 10 years, with a notable increase in densities in the southern region (k. macleod, pers. comm.). this is supported by some sighting and strandings data (although strandings are not necessarily good indicators of distribution). similarly it has been suggested, based on strandings data, that there is a change in sperm whale physeter macrocephalus distribution in the north-east atlantic, and this has been related
What did the MA develop?
the ma developed four scenarios that could be used to examine and compare changes in land use and global climate under a variety of deliberately diverse and different social and political futures
What does this scenario depict?
this scenario depicts a globally connected world that relies strongly on environmentally sound technology
What were they developed for?
they were developed to compare four possible extreme conditions in the year 2050 and also provide extrapolations to 2100
the ma developed four scenarios that could be used to examine and compare changes in land use and global climate under a variety of deliberately diverse and different social and political futures. they were developed to compare four possible extreme conditions in the year 2050 and also provide extrapolations to 2100 8 18 see 44 for discussion of the importance of region and scale]. the scenarios are not predictions; their principal utility is to delineate the range of possible futures. the four scenarios can be briefly described as follows 8 18 ]: (i) adapting mosaic. in this scenario, regional political responses and economic activity are focused within each major watershed. local institutions are strengthened and local ecosystems managed proactively. economic growth is initially low but increases with time. human population levels approach those estimated for the scenario with the highest rate of human population growth. (ii) order from strength. this scenario represents a regionalized and fragmented world that is concerned with security and protection; it pays little attention to public goods and takes a reactive approach to environmental problems. it has the lowest economic growth rates of the four scenarios (they even decrease with time), but these are combined with the highest human population growth rates. (iii) technogarden. this scenario depicts a globally connected world that relies strongly on environmentally sound technology. ecosystems are increasingly dependent upon technological fixes. economic growth is relatively high
The scope of permissible emissions trading has been a major point of disagreement between what countries?
the scope of permissible emissions trading has been a major point of disagreement between the u.s. and the eu
What did EU want?
the eu wanted nations to make at least half of their emissions cuts within their own borders
What did the US?
the u.s. wanted no limit on the purchase of emission rights from other countries
b. scope of emissions trading the bonn compromise does not set clear limits on the magnitude of international emissions trading that the industrialized countries could engage in to achieve their targets. the scope of permissible emissions trading has been a major point of disagreement between the u.s. and the eu. the eu wanted nations to make at least half of their emissions cuts within their own borders, whereas the u.s. wanted no limit on the purchase of emission rights from other countries. in our simulations, we capture extreme points on the extent to which countries can meet their specific emission reduction commitments by abatement abroad (so-called whereflexibility). unrestricted where-flexibility among annex-b countries should be considered the relevant policy option emerging from the bonn compromise: 7
How was the experiment conducted?
in this study, we conducted an online experiment using a national quota sample to compare three approaches to communicating the scientific consensus, namely: (a) descriptive text, (b) a pie chart and (c) metaphorical representations
How many approaches were compared?
in this study, we conducted an online experiment using a national quota sample to compare three approaches to communicating the scientific consensus, namely: (a) descriptive text, (b) a pie chart and (c) metaphorical representations
Results indicate what?
results indicate that while all three approaches can significantly increase public understanding of the degree of scientific consensus, the pie chart and simple text have superior recall and are most effective across political party lines
previous research has identified public perceptions of the scientific consensus on climate change as an important gateway belief. yet, little research to date has examined how to effectively communicate the scientific consensus on climate change. in this study, we conducted an online experiment using a national quota sample to compare three approaches to communicating the scientific consensus, namely: (a) descriptive text, (b) a pie chart and (c) metaphorical representations. results indicate that while all three approaches can significantly increase public understanding of the degree of scientific consensus, the pie chart and simple text have superior recall and are most effective across political party lines. we conclude that the scientific consensus on climate change is most effectively communicated as a short, simple message that is easy to comprehend and remember. representing the consensus visually in the form of a pie chart appears to be particularly useful. 1 and context the latest intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) report states with 95 certainty that human-caused climate change is happening (ipcc 2013 ). the ipcc is not alone in its conclusion: a recent review of over 12,500 scientific peer-reviewed s on the subject of global climate change found that 97 of the papers accept the consensus position that humans are causing global warming (cook et al. 2013 - a finding consistent with results of earlier surveys of the scientific literature on climate change (oreskes 2004 anderegg et al. 2010 doran and zimmerman 2009 ).
How heat stress in the Mediterranean hotspot is enhanced?
intensification of heat stress in the mediterranean hotspot is enhanced by preferential warming of the hot tail of the daily temperature distribution, with 95th percentile maximum and minimum temperatures showing greater increases than the respective 75th percentile temperatures
What did amplify the response of the hottest temperatures?
the response of the hottest temperatures is amplified by a surface moisture feedback, with the areas of largest increase in 95th percentile maximum and minimum daily temperatures (figure 1) associated with peak decreases in surface evapotranspiration (figure 2) and peak increases in sensible heat flux (not shown
The changes in evapotranspiration is associated with?
these changes in evapotranspiration and sensible heat flux are in turn associated with decreases in root zone soil moisture and 2-meter relative humidity (figure 2
intensification of heat stress in the mediterranean hotspot is enhanced by preferential warming of the hot tail of the daily temperature distribution, with 95th percentile maximum and minimum temperatures showing greater increases than the respective 75th percentile temperatures (figure 1). the response of the hottest temperatures is amplified by a surface moisture feedback, with the areas of largest increase in 95th percentile maximum and minimum daily temperatures (figure 1) associated with peak decreases in surface evapotranspiration (figure 2) and peak increases in sensible heat flux (not shown). these changes in evapotranspiration and sensible heat flux are in turn associated with decreases in root zone soil moisture and 2-meter relative humidity (figure 2). this amplification of heat stress through surface drying is most pronounced in the areas that show the most pronounced preferential warming of the hot tail of the daily temperature distribution, including france, the northern iberian peninsula, and maritime areas of the northern and southwestern mediterranean (figures 1 and 2). land-atmosphere coupling has been shown to be critical for the greenhouse response in europe seneviratne et al. 2006], and a similar ghg-induced surface moisture feedback has been identified in midlatitudes of north america diffenbaugh et al. 2005]. the pattern of spatial heterogeneity in the heat index response is also regulated by fine-scale climate processes. for instance, the pattern of heat index response closely follows the pattern of topography in the region, with larger changes at lower elevations and smaller changes at higher elevations. this topographic control occurs largely because of the difference in baseline values at high and low elevations: even after ghg-induced warming, high elevation areas are still too cool to exceed the ''dangerous'' heat index threshold very often, whereas low elevation areas, which have higher baseline values (figure 3), exceed the
what percentage of attendees have never taken part in a protest  about an environmental issue?
over 90% of participants
a lack of participation and engagement with systems of governance was found throughout the survey. although over half of participants state they are interested in national government climate policy, only a quarter of participants actually keep an eye on which political parties have the strongest climate policies, indicating that, as others have found, the environment remains a low priority issue at election time (whiteley et al 2005). as shown in table 2, over 90% of participants have never written to their mp about an environmental issue, and the same proportion has never taken part in a protest about an environmental issue. it is worth pointing out that political actions about any issue are relatively uncommon (hansard, 2008), highlighting the general political disenfranchisement, distrust, and fatalism amongst the british public noted elsewhere (e.g., grove-- white, 1996).
How have regional climate change trends in Kenya affected measures of population health in the past decades?
a positive relationship has been observed between regional trends in climate (rising temperatures and declining rainfall) and childhood stunting in kenya since 1975, indicating that as projected warming and drying continue to occur along with population growth, food yields and nutritional health will be impaired
How can climate crises occurring in one country can cause ripple effects in other parts of the world?
furthermore, at the current level of global connectedness and interdependence, the environmental impact of human activity has a wider geographic range
What was the international impact of the wildfires and heatwaves experienced in Russia during the summer of 2010 which severely reduced the wheat yield that year?
contributed to a rise in the price of wheat worldwide, exacerbating hunger in russia (where flour prices increased by 20%) and in low-income urban populations in countries such as pakistan and egypt
these changes pose fundamental threats to human well-being and health.4,7 for example, a positive relationship has been observed between regional trends in climate (rising temperatures and declining rainfall) and childhood stunting in kenya since 1975, indicating that as projected warming and drying continue to occur along with population growth, food yields and nutritional health will be impaired.8 these human-induced climatic changes often act in concert with environmental, demographic, and social stressors that variously influence regional food yields, nutrition, and health. furthermore, at the current level of global connectedness and interdependence, the environmental impact of human activity has a wider geographic range, although its influence may be offset somewhat by more effective global alerts and more rapid distribution of food aid. the extreme heat and wildfires in western russia in the summer of 2010 destroyed one third of that country's wheat yield, and the subsequent ban on exported grain contributed to a rise in the price of wheat worldwide, exacerbating hunger in russia (where flour prices increased by 20%) and in low-income urban populations in countries such as pakistan and egypt.9,10 on the economic front, the recent global financial crisis has underscored the domino-like interdependence of national economies.
What was the scope of the mentioned study?
using a retrospective analysis and synthesis of long-term climate and streamflow data (75 years) from six watersheds differing in management histories we explored whether streamflow responded differently to variation in annual temperature and extreme precipitation than unmanaged watersheds
There were significant increases in temperature and the frequency of extreme wet and dry years since the 1980s. As per the study what was the reason for the same?
response models explained almost all streamflow variability (adjusted r2. 0.99). in all cases, changing land use altered streamflow. observed watershed responses differed significantly in wet and dry extreme years in all but a stand managed as a coppice forest
what is required to mitigate  annual precipitation associated with climate change?
forest management can potentially mitigate extreme annual precipitation associated with climate change
forested watersheds, an important provider of ecosystems services related to water supply, can have their structure, function, and resulting streamflow substantially altered by land use and land cover. using a retrospective analysis and synthesis of long-term climate and streamflow data (75 years) from six watersheds differing in management histories we explored whether streamflow responded differently to variation in annual temperature and extreme precipitation than unmanaged watersheds. we show significant increases in temperature and the frequency of extreme wet and dry years since the 1980s. response models explained almost all streamflow variability (adjusted r2. 0.99). in all cases, changing land use altered streamflow. observed watershed responses differed significantly in wet and dry extreme years in all but a stand managed as a coppice forest. converting deciduous stands to pine altered the streamflow response to extreme annual precipitation the most; the apparent frequency of observed extreme wet years decreased on average by sevenfold. this increased soil water storage may reduce flood risk in wet years, but create conditions that could exacerbate drought. forest management can potentially mitigate extreme annual precipitation associated with climate change; however, offsetting effects suggest the need for spatially explicit analyses of risk and vulnerability.
Why would it be riskier for MNEs to accommodate the change in figure 1?
the change because they cannot leverage existing fsas and thus open the door to new entrants
What does the axis in figure 1 measure?
how radically mnes change their key fsas in response to climate change
In figure 1, what does the horizontal axis corresponds to?
he horizontal axis corresponds to the value chain orientation of fsa development. it shows whether an mne changes fsas related to downstream activities aimed at customers or those related to upstream activities such as sourcing and production
(rothaermel hill, 2005). however, it will also be riskier for mnes to accommodate the change because they cannot leverage existing fsas and thus open the door to new entrants. hence, mnes may also have an incentive to attempt at obstructing such a change (tripsas, 1997). figure 1 presents a framework that depicts the nature of climate-induced fsa development; it figure 1 presents a framework that depicts the nature of climate-induced fsa development; it should be noted though that this can be applied more broadly as well. the vertical axis refers to the three fsa reconfiguration mechanisms: fsa substitution, fsa transformation, and fsa evolution. this axis measures how radically mnes change their key fsas in response to climate change. the three mechanisms form a continuum where fsa substitution is the most drastic response to external change followed by transformation and evolution. the horizontal axis corresponds to the value chain orientation of fsa development. it shows whether an mne changes fsas related to downstream activities aimed at customers or those related to upstream activities such as sourcing and production. the ensuing matrix sets out six cells in which particular initiatives of mnes in response to climate change can be positioned and shows how mnes adapt their fsas.
what is the first challenge facing governments?
first, reduction of carbon-emitting activities needs to be managed
what is the consequence of the struggle to reduce carbon-emitting activities?
this is likely to come from strengthened public awareness of climate change and its potential eff ects on health
nationally, governments face three main challenges. first, reduction of carbon-emitting activities needs to be managed. this is likely to come from strengthened public awareness of climate change and its potential eff ects on health. in the developing world, climate change issues are perceived by many as distant, diff use, and uncertain.148 developing countries are preoccupied with the current high burden of disease due to non-climatic factors and, at the same time, problems related to health-care delivery in the public systems. citizens of the poorest countries should understand the links between these constraints and climate change. second, locally relevant adaptation technologies that do not compromise growth need to be identifi ed. discussion needs to extend to locally relevant adaptation technologies that do not harm health. third, to support both these goals and to underpin national adaptation eff orts, health eff ects of climate change need to be integrated into national plans across sectors and tiers of government. this action will require improved understanding of health and climate change at regional, national, subnational, community, and individual levels, from the primary sector to public fi nance. national plans must fi nancially support key shifts in policy, facilitate access to better technologies, and protect health outcomes. frumkin and colleagues147 have proposed a public health approach to climate change based on the essential public health services, which extends to both clinical and population health services, and emphasises the coordination of government agencies (federal, state, and local), academia, the private sector, and ngos. there are institutions to undertake these challenges (eg, in south america and the caribbean), from capable national governments to eff ective regional fi nancial and research organisations. such institutions are likely to gain from cooperation, both from opportunities for sharing adaptation technologies and from presenting a unifi ed front when bargaining for increased development assistance in spite of costly adaptation. those that do not have such capabilities must be assisted to face each of these challenges. the institutional challenge of adjusting to the adverse public health eff ects of climate change is closely tied to the general challenge of sustainable development, with its emphasis on equity and environment, and on wellbeing instead of relentless economic growth.24 climate change adds new urgency to this challenge, not least because of the clear disjuncture between cause and eff ect; responsibility for climate change is mainly of rich nations and, although the negative public health eff ects of climate change will not be confi ned to poor nations, they will be worse there, both in absolute terms and in terms of relative capacity to cope. whether viewed as an ethical imperative or an example of enlightened self-interest in an interconnected world, a vigorous anticipatory response to the challenge of adjustment is urgently needed. climate change demands political action and social mobilisation. however, individuals, organisations, and governments all have an important role in advocating and implementing change. although a complete response requires a holistic global approach, this should not be a reason to delay changes that are benefi cial to human health and can be implemented immediately. equally, the possibility of partially eff ective local strategies should not be seen as a substitute for a full-scale global response. putting climate change at the centre of government policies enables a number of win-win solutions in achieving implementation of policies across government departments. for example, the uk government energy policy to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2050, to increase the use of renewable energies, and to ensure that every home is adequately and aff ordably heated will increase the achievement of policy objectives in the departments of agriculture, transport, and health. our fi ndings are in agreement with the main messages from the international scientifi c congress on climate change in copenhagen in march, 2009. these messages suggested that, to achieve the societal transformation to meet the climate change challenge, we need to: reduce inertia in social and economic systems; build on a growing public desire for governments to act on climate change; remove implicit and explicit subsidies; reduce the infl uence of vested interests that increase emissions and reduce resilience; enable shifts from ineff ective governance and weak institutions to innovative leadership in government, the private sector, and civil society; and engage society in the transition to norms and practices that foster sustainability.
According to the article, does the experimental design for this assessment require interactive coupling of the atmospheric CCM to an oceanic GCM?
the experimental design for this evaluation does not require interactive coupling of the atmospheric ccm to an ocean gcm
Does the impact of climate change on CCMVal-2 forecasts depend only on the direct radioactive impact of GHGs?
moreover, the impact of climate change on the ccmval-2 predictions depends not only on the direct radiative impact of ghgs, but also on the realism of the associated parent aogcm whose ssts and sea ice are used
the experimental design for this evaluation does not require interactive coupling of the atmospheric ccm to an ocean gcm. this constitutes the most important simplifi cation in the current report, and thus all but one model do not account for changes in surface temperature caused by changes in stratospheric composition. instead, these ccms prescribe sea surface temperature (sst) and sea ice cover from climate model simulations that were forced by the same observed or projected ghg concentrations. all ccmval-2 integrations of the 21<s314>st century use the middleof-the-road special report on emission scenarios (sres) a1b scenario (ipcc 2001; section 2.5.3.2). considering that a1b is only one of the possible scenarios, and that recent co<s314>2 emissions are larger than foreseen in a1b (global carbon budget, 2009; le quere et al. 2009), the lack of consideration of other scenarios needs to be considered when interpreting the current results. moreover, the impact of climate change on the ccmval-2 predictions depends not only on the direct radiative impact of ghgs, but also on the realism of the associated parent aogcm whose ssts and sea ice are used. biases in the ocean surface conditions (see below), as well as lacking feedback of ozone-induced climate change onto the ocean in most models, complicate the interpretation of climate change in the ccms considered here. as noted before, the next generation of ccms will likely comprise more models incorporating an interactive ocean. chapter 2: chemistry climate models and scenarios 19
As per the general consesus in the scientific litrature, whose actions are contributing to the climate change?
there is a general consensus in the scientific literature that human actions are contributing to climate change
How are many diseases of public health significance related to climate change?
many diseases of public health significance are highly sensitive to climate variability and are likely to be affected by the observed and predicted trend toward warmer and more variable climate conditions
Why are policy makers  interested in the likely direction and size of these health effects and their interaction with other nonclimatic influences?
therefore, to inform mitigation decisions, policy makers are increasingly interested in the likely direction and size of these health effects and their interaction with other nonclimatic influences
there is a general consensus in the scientific literature that human actions are contributing to climate change (ipcc 2001b; oreskes 2004). many diseases of public health significance are highly sensitive to climate variability and are likely to be affected by the observed and predicted trend toward warmer and more variable climate conditions (e.g., mcmichael and githeko 2001; mcmichael et al. 2003a; national research council 2001; patz et al. 2005). therefore, to inform mitigation decisions, policy makers are increasingly interested in the likely direction and size of these health effects and their interaction with other nonclimatic influences. to plan adaptation
What is the abbreviation of Antelope in Haplotype distribution?
ant
What is the abbreviation of Bernalillo in Haplotype distribution?
ber
What is the abbreviation of Box Canyon in Haplotype distribution?
box
fig. 3 (a) gene network inferred from tcs showing zero-, oneand two-step clades from the nested cladogram. haplotype distributions are abbreviated as follows: antelope, ant; bernalillo, ber; box canyon, box; cochise stronghold, cst; dragoon, dra; globe, glo; granite gap, gra; greaterville, grv; las playas, pla; mount riley, mtr; nogales, nog; old hachita, ha; oracle, ora; organ, org; saddlerock canyon, sad; san simon, sim; skeleton canyon, ske; tiger mine, tig; tollhouse, tol; wilcox, wil. (b) gene network inferred from tcs showing two-, threeand four-step clades from the nested cladogram. clade distributions are abbreviated as above. (c) gene network inferred from tcs showing four-, fiveand six-step clades from the nested cladogram. clade distributions are abbreviated as above.
How high it seems to be the current climate change awareness in the farming community?
despite the public debate, the current awareness of climate change in the farming community appears to be low (robinson, 1999
What are the 'unknown aspects' that research has to deal with?
research will have to deal with some 'unknown aspects' that due to their complexity have not yet been studied in detail. these include the effect on secondary factors of agricultural production (e.g. soils, weeds, pests and diseases), the effect on the quality of crop and animal production, the effect of changes in frequency of isolated and extreme weather events on agricultural production, and the interaction with the surrounding natural ecosystems
What studies should also investigate?
studies should also investigate combined effects of adaptation and mitigation strategies, and include assessments of the consequences on current efforts in agricultural policy for a sustainable agriculture that also preserves environmental and social values in the rural society
climate change related policy actions are especially urgent where there are long lead times or large investments at stake. this is the case for some of the large-scale irrigation systems, some of which already deplete available water resources. however, more information on the likely effects of climate change at the detailed regional level is needed before specific actions can be taken. this will also require use of much more elaborate models of adaptation to climate change (reilly and schimmelpfennig, 2000). such regional impact assessments will need to consider the interactions with other sectors, in particular the hydrological sector, which in many european areas deliver water for irrigation in agriculture. this may not only affect mediterranean countries severely. also central and north european countries may be affected, e.g. through changes in seasonal changes of river-flow (middlekoop et al., 2001). regional impact and adaptation assessments should be encouraged, and their results should be collected at national and european levels to be used for formulating a climate change policy for the european agricultural sector. the impact assessments need to be conducted in close collaboration with the stakeholders, and effort should also be put into increasing the awareness of individual farmers and decision makers on the issues of climate change and the need for adaptation of farming practices. despite the public debate, the current awareness of climate change in the farming community appears to be low (robinson, 1999). studies on adaptation measures will also need to link the farm level decision making to the policy decisions made at local, regional or large scales (chiotti and johnston, 1995). research will have to deal with some 'unknown aspects' that due to their complexity have not yet been studied in detail. these include the effect on secondary factors of agricultural production (e.g. soils, weeds, pests and diseases), the effect on the quality of crop and animal production, the effect of changes in frequency of isolated and extreme weather events on agricultural production, and the interaction with the surrounding natural ecosystems. studies should also investigate combined effects of adaptation and mitigation strategies, and include assessments of the consequences on current efforts in agricultural policy for a sustainable agriculture that also preserves environmental and social values in the rural society. 6. conclusions the effects of global change are on the whole likely to increase productivity of european agricultural systems, because increasing co2 concentration will directly increase resource use efficiencies of crops, and because warming will give more favourable conditions for crop production in northern europe. however, this will require adaptation of current farming systems to new climatic conditions. climate change resulting from increased greenhouse gas emissions may be expected to reinforce the current trends of increasing cereal productivity in north-western europe and reduced productivity in mediterranean region. this could lead to intensification of farming systems in northern europe and increased extensification in southern europe. the increased intensification of farms in northern europe could in combination with an increase in the need for plant protection and increased turnover of soil organic matter lead to negative environmental side effects. in southern areas the disadvantages will predominate. the possible increase in water shortage and extreme weather events may cause lower harvestable yields, higher yield variability and a reduction in suitable areas for traditional crops. agricultural and environmental policies will have to support the adaptation of european agriculture to climate change, and to support the development of agricultural strategies to mitigate climate change through a net reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. research should support such policies by studying combined effects of adaptation and mitigation strategies.
How many sectors studies were commissioned for adaptation costs?
six sector studies
What year was considered when making water investment decisions?
2050
What three health issues were included in extra health treatment costs?
malnutrition, malaria and diarrhoea
perhaps the best global adaptation cost estimate available to date is unfccc (2007).5 the secretariat of the framework convention commissioned six sector studies to get a better idea of adaptation costs both globally and in developing countries. the estimates were made for the year 2030, usually assuming sres a1b and b1 or similar scenarios. * agriculture, forestry and fisheries. the agriculture estimate consists of three distinct cost items: extra capital investment along the production chain (farms, transport, processing, etc.), the need for better extension services at country level and the cost of additional global research (e.g. on new cultivars). (see mccarl, 2007.) * water supply. the water estimate considers the effect of additional water demand and changes on the supply side. investment decisions are made in anticipation of 2050 water needs. (see kirshen, 2007.) * human health. the health estimate includes the extra treatment costs for three health issues: malnutrition, malaria and diarrhoea. scenarios are based on the global burden of disease study (mcmichael et al., 2004). (see ebi, 2007.) * coastal zones. coastal protection costs are based on the diva model, which considers a limited set of adaptation options, which are applied globally. uniquely, the coastal estimate considers both adaptation costs and residual damages. investments are made in anticipation of 2080 sea level rise. (see nicholls, 2007.) * infrastructure. the infrastructure estimate adopts the world bank (2006) methodology, using insurance data to determine the share of climate-sensitive new investment. (see satterthwaite, 2007.)
What is the fanality of the Graph?
graph 4.3 shows the trends in coverage of the different discourses over the past decade. optimism and opportunity are removed to make things clearer, as they appear so rarely
What do trend lines show?
the trend lines show that although the peaks in 1997/98 and 2000/01 were made up of almost all the different major discourses featuring roughly proportionately to their overall number of appearances, this relationship breaks down from 2004/05 onwards. potential catastrophe rationalism and disaster strikes all have high peaks in 2004/05, while the other discourses disappear
Why did the number of appearances of rationalism and disaster strikes decrease sharply in 2005/06?
from there, coverage of potential catastrophe increases dramatically to the extent that it formed virtually half of the total coverage in 2006/07, but the number of appearances of rationalism and disaster strikes markedly decreases by 2005/06. whilst the peak in coverage in 2006/07 is thus largely taken up by potential catastrophe coverage of all the other discourses apart from rationalism also notably increases
graph 4.3 shows the trends in coverage of the different discourses over the past decade. optimism and opportunity are removed to make things clearer, as they appear so rarely. the trend lines show that although the peaks in 1997/98 and 2000/01 were made up of almost all the different major discourses featuring roughly proportionately to their overall number of appearances, this relationship breaks down from 2004/05 onwards. potential catastrophe rationalism and disaster strikes all have high peaks in 2004/05, while the other discourses disappear. from there, coverage of potential catastrophe increases dramatically to the extent that it formed virtually half of the total coverage in 2006/07, but the number of appearances of rationalism and disaster strikes markedly decreases by 2005/06. whilst the peak in coverage in 2006/07 is thus largely taken up by potential catastrophe coverage of all the other discourses apart from rationalism also notably increases.
Why is assessment of the burden of disease associated with climate change is challenging?
assessment of the burden of disease associated with climate change is challenging because of the unusually wide range of health outcomes (and inputs) aff ected
What is the challenge to disseminate information?
the challenge to disseminate information is about ensuring that the necessary information is available and easily accessible in the right place at the right time
What have been established to facilitate learning?
several databases have been established to facilitate learning, such as the uk climate impacts programme database (panel 3) and the unfccc database on local coping strategies
assessment of the burden of disease associated with climate change is challenging because of the unusually wide range of health outcomes (and inputs) aff ected.16 however, detailed estimates are essential both in strengthening understanding of the consequences of failed attempts at emission mitigation and in formulating policies to improve adaptation in those most at risk. the challenge to disseminate information is about ensuring that the necessary information is available and easily accessible in the right place at the right time. mechanisms to ensure that the lessons of experience and experiments in one place can be learned in other, perhaps distant, places are essential. several databases have been established to facilitate learning, such as the uk climate impacts programme database (panel 3) and the unfccc database on local coping strategies. it gathers and disseminates knowledge and experience from communities that have had to adapt to specifi c hazards or climatic conditions.100 it is searchable by hazard (eg, fl oods), outcome (eg, decreased food security), and strategy (eg, appropriate crop selection), and new case studies can be added. the current examples come from various developing countries, including china. there are a few contributions from developed countries, such as a heatwave strategy in philadelphia (usa) and typhoon preparedness in japan. policy responses to the public health eff ects of climate change will have to be formulated in conditions of uncertainty. the complexity of uncertainty partly indicates that climate change is not a stand-alone risk factor but, rather, an amplifi er of existing health risks. the unavoidability of uncertainty refers to the unusual
When is warming over the Artic at it's lowest?
warming over the arctic is largest in winter (4-10*c, median of 6*c) and least in summer (1.5-3.5*c, median of 2.6*c
In what potential ways do changes to the precipitation in the Artic affect the hydrological regimes of river basins in the Artic?
these changes have the potential to alter the hydrological regimes of river basins in the arctic, with earlier spring snowmelt and more direct runoff earlier in the summer, and increased number of rain-on-snow events contributing to faster snowmelt and more intense flash floods (acia 2004
What is a contributing factor as to why there is little to no basis to judge which model is "better" than another?
however, the size of arctic warming relative to global warming varies widely between models and we have little or no basis on which to judge whether one model is "better" than others
warming over the arctic is largest in winter (4-10*c, median of 6*c) and least in summer (1.5-3.5*c, median of 2.6*c). these area-averaged changes mask important regional patterns of change. winter warming is largest in the arctic ocean, and varies from model to model according to model-specific changes in sea-ice, while summer warming is largest over land. thus, the contrast between winter and summer is smaller over land than over the arctic ocean. most models show relatively little warming or even localized cooling over the north atlantic and greenland sea, which is related to reduced strength and/or reorganization of the north atlantic thermohaline circulation. all models show increases in arctic-wide precipitation, but spatial patterns of change vary considerablybetweenmodels,withsomelocalizeddecreasesinprecipitation.theseincreases in precipitation will, however, be accompanied by changes in the character of precipitation. although information on the proportion of precipitation that falls as snow was not available for these gcms, the increased warming implies that a higher fraction of precipitation will fall as rain; currently most summer precipitation, except in the central arctic ocean, falls as rain (clark et al. 1996). for each season, we therefore expect the proportion of the arctic that receives wet precipitation to increase, but for snow mass to increase where it remains cold enough for snow. in a study that used a similar set of 21st century climate simulations over the arctic, meleshko et al. (2004), showed that march snowmass increased, in line with greater winter precipitation, and that may snowmass decreased, due to increased rates of melting and reduced solid precipitation in spring. these changes have the potential to alter the hydrological regimes of river basins in the arctic, with earlier spring snowmelt and more direct runoff earlier in the summer, and increased number of rain-on-snow events contributing to faster snowmelt and more intense flash floods (acia 2004). evaluations of gcm sea ice distributions in control simulations, (for example, hu et al. 2004) have shown that all models have difficulty replicating the observed distributions and thicknesses, and that the magnitude of the snow/ice-albedo feedback effect (and hence regional temperature change) can be sensitive to the distribution and thickness of ice in a model's control climatology. similarly, gcms vary widely in their ability to replicate the average behavior and variability of mechanisms influencing arctic climate (such as the north atlantic oscillation and the atlantic thermohaline circulation). this is reflected in the wide range of predicted climate changes for the arctic between the gcms studied here. where there is a consensus between gcms one can be more confident in the robustness of the results of this analysis. for example, all gcms exhibit greater warming in the arctic than the global mean warming, so we can be confident in this result. however, the size of arctic warming relative to global warming varies widely between models and we have little or no basis on which to judge whether one model is "better" than others. therefore, calculation of a "mean arctic temperature change" across all models has little meaning; rather, the range in predicted changes provides us with some bounds on the likely temperature changes, but also an indication of the rather large uncertainties in the current generation of gcm simulations of arctic climate change. a further source of uncertainty in this study arises from the analysis of only a single realization of each gcm-scenario combination. single simulations make it difficult to quantify the relative contributions of natural variability and ghg forcing in the change in the arctic at a time of 2*c global warming. indeed, it is possible that multiple simulations with the same gcm may produce differences as large as the differences between the models studied here. more robust results could be achieved through analysis of ensembles of simulations, but this was not possible with data available from the ipcc data distribution centre. however, by analyzing the results for four difference ghg scenarios, and comparing between simulations at the time when the global temperature anomaly reaches 2*c, some idea of
When was media attention attracted ?
media attention was first attracted by events such as forest fires or inconveniences to vacationers
What happens in heat wave disaster in French Society.
when the perception of the heat wave disaster in french society resolutely shifted away from attenuation, government rapidly adapted to respond to the amplification.19administrative reports were ordered from health, internal affairs, social, and elder services and commissions were named in the national assembly to shed full light on the event. the general director of health was dismissed, and the minister of health eventually resigned
What is  France's "Plan Canicule"
the decision to engage a thoroughgoing heat wave risk prevention policy for france
it must be noticed that this governmental effort took place during a short span of time throughout which the outcome in terms of attenuation or amplification was initially uncertain. perceptions could swing either way, and the government was apparently optimistic as to its chances of overcoming the political and social crisis. but the disaster was too large, and some amplification stations too powerful. media attention was first attracted by events such as forest fires or inconveniences to vacationers, but then focused on human casualties as the major consequence of the heat wave. when the perception of the heat wave disaster in french society resolutely shifted away from attenuation, government rapidly adapted to respond to the amplification.19administrative reports were ordered from health, internal affairs, social, and elder services and commissions were named in the national assembly to shed full light on the event. the general director of health was dismissed, and the minister of health eventually resigned. a risk prevention and response plan was ordered by the government to be ready before summer 2004. 4.2. france's "plan canicule" the decision to engage a thoroughgoing heat wave risk prevention policy for france was made by the prime minister when it became clear that the
What is somewhat glossed over as an important issue?
one very important issue, somewhat glossed over so far is that there are several auto fuels: at least gasoline and diesel--in some countries also gas, alcohol and various other new fuels exist
What do demand sensetivity studies focus on?
practically all demand sensitivity studies focus on gasoline as opposed to diesel and other fuels
graham and gleister conclude their survey of surveys and studies which build on many hundreds of studies, by saying that despite some variation in individual values, elasticities of fuel demand generally fall within a fairly narrow range. short-term price elasticities tend to be between  0.2 and  0.3, while long-run values go from  0.6 to  0.8. for income, the long-run elasticity is often slightly higher than unity (1.1-1.3) while the short-run elasticity is from 0.35 to 0.55. one very important issue, somewhat glossed over so far is that there are several auto fuels: at least gasoline and diesel--in some countries also gas, alcohol and various other new fuels exist. practically all demand sensitivity studies focus on gasoline as opposed to diesel and other fuels. it is unclear why but one reason might be that diesel is used heavily in professional transport (busses, trucks and other non-transport machinery such as agricultural equipment and diesel generators) with different explanatory factors than those used for private auto use. furthermore diesel and light fuel oil (lfo) are similar and the latter is usually untaxed so it may be the case that lfo gets used ''illegally'' in the transport sector. this should however not be a problem in later data for industrialised countries. another reason may be that estimations with several fuels would also have to deal with the different tax policies for the vehicles themselves and again diesel and gasoline cars often face quite different tax and other instruments which tend to be complex and vary over time. schipper et al. (1993) make an important point when they note that since the shares of the different fuels and their relative prices vary over time and between countries, this may well be a source of error in the estimation of fuel elasticities. as noted by schipper et al. (1993) the problem is partly that gasoline can be used by mopeds, trucks and other machines leading to an overestimate of auto use while on the other hand many cars use diesel which is a source of underestimation. the underand over-estimation do however not cancel out because they are driven by very different processes and develop at different rates. a recent survey of the field, see basso and oum (2006) identifies this as one of the more important methodological issues that is not normally dealt with. one of the very few studies which explicitly does deal with this and explicitly sets out to estimate total fuel elasticities (thus including total fuel diesel, gasoline, etc and correspondingly weighted fuel prices) is johansson and schipper (1997) they find fuel price elasticities of  0.7. 3. a comparison of gasoline tax rates the fuel price elasticities just mentioned are important because there are big differences among the oecd countries in fuel taxation. it is these differences in fuel tax that determine the differences in final consumer price.6
How much is the projected rise in the global average sea level?
global average sea level to rise by 9-88 cm by 2100
Will the sea level rise more in the Arctic or the Southern Ocean?
greater than average rise in the arctic and a less than average rise in the southern ocean
What is the central value of the IPCC projections?
the central value of these projections is 48 cm
the most recent ipcc projections are for the global average sea level to rise by 9-88 cm by 2100, or 0.8- 8 cm per decade (ipcc 2001a). the central value of these projections is 48 cm, which is an average rate of 2.2-4.4 times the rate for the 20th century. there is low confidence in the regional distribution of sea level change except that the range is substantial compared with the average. nearly all models project a greater than average rise in the arctic and a less than average rise in the southern ocean. trends in australian sea levels detected over the last 25 years, described in the previous section (mitchell et al 2000), suggest that sea level rise in australian and the pacific might also be considerably less than the global average.
What comprises the Southern Ocean?
the southern ocean comprises all waters south of the polar front, a well-defined circum-antarctic oceanographic feature that marks the northernmost extent of cold surface water
What is the total area of the Southern Ocean?
the total area of the southern ocean is about 34.8 million km2, of which up to 21 million km2are covered by ice at the winter maximum and about 7 million km2are covered at the summer minimum (zwally et al. 2002
How is the continental shelf around Antarctica?
the continental shelf around antarctica is unusually deep, partly from isostatic depression from the enormous mass of continental ice
the southern ocean comprises all waters south of the polar front, a well-defined circum-antarctic oceanographic feature that marks the northernmost extent of cold surface water. the total area of the southern ocean is about 34.8 million km2, of which up to 21 million km2are covered by ice at the winter maximum and about 7 million km2are covered at the summer minimum (zwally et al. 2002). much of the southern ocean overlies deep seafloor, the fauna of which is in general poorly known (brandt et al. 2007). the continental shelf around antarctica is unusually deep, partly from isostatic depression from the enormous mass of continental ice,
What is the mean global temperature increase between 1990 and 2100?
between 1.4 and 4.8 deg c
Why is the current drought in the south-western part of the United States advantageous?
should provide excellent opportunities to study how amphibians deal with a dramatic, sudden change in climate
Why is more research into climate change and amphibian declines necessary?
virtually every facet needs more research
the recent report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change confirmed a global mean warming of 0.6 deg c during the 20th century and predicted a mean global temperature increase between 1.4 and 4.8 deg c between 1990 and 2100 (ipcc, 2001). changes in rainfall patterns and increasing severity of climate fluctuations are likely along with the increasing temperatures. even if climate change has not yet caused amphibian declines, amphibians will undoubtedly be affected by these future variations in climate. so little research has been conducted on the topic of climate change and amphibian declines that virtually every facet needs more research. more basic studies are needed on temperature and moisture tolerances and behavioural means of compensating for changes in climate of amphibians in areas where climate changes have already been demonstrated. the current drought in the western and south-western part of the united states should provide excellent opportunities to study how amphibians deal with a dramatic, sudden change in climate. additionally, we need more information about whether amphibians are changing their distributional patterns in response to defined climate change and how climate change affects reproductive success, availability of prey and incidence of infectious disease. most importantly, we need to understand interrelations among the rate of change and degree of severity of climate change and amphibian behaviour, physiological properties (tolerances of thermal extremes and dehydration) of various life stages of amphibians, population dynamics, energetics, food supplies, vulnerability of amphibians
what does the study investigates?
this study investigates the variations of the cyclonic activity in the mediterranean region that would be produced by doubling the co2 atmospheric content
how does the present climate is characterized?
the present climate is characterized with a slightly, but statistically significant, higher overall number of cyclones
why there is a possibility that climate change signal is not evident?
a climate change signal is not evident because of the coarse t106 model resolution remains open for further investigations
this study investigates the variations of the cyclonic activity in the mediterranean region that would be produced by doubling the co2 atmospheric content. the analysis is based on the slp (sea-level pressure) fields produced by two 30 yr long time slice experiments of the echam-4 model at t106 resolution, carried out by dmi, simulating the present and doubled co2 scenarios. the cyclonic activity in the mediterranean region is similar in the 2 climate scenarios. the present climate is characterized with a slightly, but statistically significant, higher overall number of cyclones. the doubled co2 simulation is characterized with more extreme weather events, but the difference between the 2 scenarios is hardly significant. no variation in the regions of formation of the cyclones was clearly identified. an, admittedly small, number of cyclones of both scenarios was simulated using a limited area model (lam) with 0.25deg resolution. these simulations do not suggest that an increased model resolution should add new major findings to the results of this study, but the possibility that a climate change signal is not evident because of the coarse t106 model resolution remains open for further investigations. however, this study does not show a large change in the regime of the cyclones in the mediterranean region due to the atmospheric co2 doubling. key words: cyclones * regional scenarios * climate change * co2 doubling * mediterranean region * extreme events
What are 3 key elements of these interactions?
life-work patterns, time and space relations, and prestige and value systems
What will be a central feature for discussion on climate change?
global governance
What class of society is more impacted by climate change?
rich individuals are likely to be better protected than poor people against negative health eff ects through their access to mobility, insurance, and health care
lifestyle commitments and consumption patterns, whether in rich or poor countries, need to be understood in the context of diverse social and political structures through which individuals and groups assure their survival and status. diff erent factors defi ne the matrix within which human-ecological interactions take shape. three key elements of this interaction include: life-work patterns, time and space relations, and prestige and value systems. the intersection of these and other factors gives rise to practices that might support, or in some cases hinder, the ability of some groups to respond to climate change. we have indications, from early phases of environmental stress, that these diff erent dimensions need to be carefully disaggregated and that there are complex feedback systems between them. we urgently need to develop new models of human socioecological interaction to address these issues. governments should address climate change and its consequences. the present fi nancial crisis has emphasised the importance of global governance, regulation, and government cooperation in providing security. baer and singer115 have analysed the systemic structures of inequality underlying global warming and argue that fundamental changes are essential to the mitigation of several emerging health crises linked to anthropogenic climate and environmental change. the move to a low-carbon economy will have global health benefi ts from both reduction in the health eff ects of climate change and improvement in human lifestyles, and these must be emphasised through health promotion. public health messages in high-carbon economies should point to the health benefi ts of actions to address climate change through reduced use of cars, less air travel, and lower meat consumption. climate has no respect for national borders or nation-specifi c government. global governance will, therefore, be a central feature of any discussion of climate change and health. issues will, similarly, not be solved by any single discipline. for example, rising rates of malaria in the peruvian amazon are caused by deforestation increasing the short-term risk of malaria by creating areas of standing water in which mosquitoes can lay their eggs.134 health here depends on responsible forestry practices. a structural change, at the political level, is needed to redistribute resources between rich and poor countries. whatever their geographical location, rich individuals are likely to be better protected than poor people against negative health eff ects through their access to mobility, insurance, and health care. to meet the new targets of 80% reduction in carbon emissions in industrialised countries by 2050, for example, substantial reduction in consumption levels and change in the value associated with some kinds of luxury consumption are needed (panel 6).
Why are the experiments for the DICE-2007 model discussed later in this review are slightly different from the equilibrium calculations?
the experiments for the dice-2007 model discussed later in this review are slightly different from these equilibrium calculations because of population growth and non-constant consumption growth
What makes an enormous difference to the results in global-warming models?
it turns out that the calibration of the utility function makes an enormous difference to the results in global-warming models
the experiments for the dice-2007 model discussed later in this review the experiments for the dice-2007 model discussed later in this review are slightly different from these equilibrium calculations because of population growth and non-constant consumption growth, but we can use the equilibrium calculations to give the flavor of the results. in the baseline empirical model, i adopt a time discount rate of 1 1/2  percent per year with a consumption elasticity of 2. these yield an equilibrium real interest rate of 5 1/2  percent per year with the consumption growth that is projected over the next century by the dice-2007 model. it turns out that the calibration of the utility function makes an enormous difference to the results in global-warming models, as i show in the modeling section below.
What percentage of houses in England are at risk of flooding at least once every 100 years?
according to statistics around 10% of houses in england are at a risk of flooding at least once every 100 years
What are the associated risks with building houses in the flood plain?
building in the flood plain not only puts lives at risk, it makes the flooding hazard worse downstream. sir michael's report says: ' where there is development on the flood plain, buildings should be made flood resilient. the government has recently produced guidance to developers on floodresilient construction. 
Are there penalties for building in the flood plain anywhere?
by contrast, on the issue of flooding, in norway or france if a planner or mayor gives permission to develop in the flood plain then they are held liable, and may go to prison
following this event, and concern over the condition of flood defences, the insurance industry threatened to deny cover completely to houses built on flood plains, which would have a drastic effect on property values and impede government plans for major house building programmes in such areas. in full knowledge of the risks of major new developments on flood plains john prescott promoted the building of around 200 000 homes in the thames gateway area on land that will one day flood, and he knew it. according to statistics around 10% of houses in england are at a risk of flooding at least once every 100 years. according to a house of commons report between 2000 and 2006, the proportion of new houses being built in flood hazard areas in england averaged 11%. england still allows development in the flood plain, even under the government's 2006 planning policy statement on flooding. scotland stopped in 1995, wales in 2004, and northern ireland in 2006. building in the flood plain not only puts lives at risk, it makes the flooding hazard worse downstream. sir michael's report says: ' where there is development on the flood plain, buildings should be made flood resilient. the government has recently produced guidance to developers on floodresilient construction. ' there is no way of making buildings flood resilient, unless you rename them boats. such cavalier disregard for human suffering and the devastation wrought on lives and communities by ignorant policy making will eventually drive people onto the streets, but they won't knock on sir michael's door and he knows that, which gives us an inkling why so many people in power act with impunity in such matters to condemn the lives of others. the types of building being built in england on flood plains are social housing, schools, hospitals and care homes, the types of buildings occupied by the most vulnerable in our society and those least likely to riot, until they are desperate. what will inevitably drive civil unrest is that lack of accountability. by contrast, on the issue of flooding, in norway or france if a planner or mayor gives permission to develop in the flood plain then they are held liable, and may go to prison. in norway insurance companies were recently able to successfully obtain damages from a provider of drainage whose poor management of the drains caused flooding to homes. perhaps the insurance companies in the uk will sue on behalf of their customers where negligence can be shown to have caused flood damage. the environment agency, which over the years has been systematically ignored by the government and planners in its recommendations not to build on the flood plains, famously in the thames gateway, appears to be developing legal teeth. in the case of the administrative court in r (environment agency) v tonbridge malling district council the council's decision to allow sheltered housing to be built on a flood plain was struck down as failing to take policy guidance sufficiently into account. the case bloor v swindon borough council also considered the relevance of flood plain policy to overall development planning policy, and in a more recent 2007 the environment agency won in the high court against a local council that wanted to put more free ebooks http://fast-file.blogspot.com
What is the average slope of thermal sensation to air temperature?
in settings both with and without sun shade, the average slope of thermal sensation to air temperature is about 0.23 units/degc
What can be inferred from the presented data?
thus, it can be inferred that the effect of increasing solar radiation from 136 w/m2to 300 w/m2is equivalent to an increase of about 2.4degc in air temperature
How else can the difference be explained?
in other words, higher temperature enhances the effect of solar radiation
in settings both with and without sun shade, the average slope of thermal sensation to air temperature is about 0.23 units/degc. the difference in thermal sensation between the two settings is 0.55 units. thus, it can be inferred that the effect of increasing solar radiation from 136 w/m2to 300 w/m2is equivalent to an increase of about 2.4degc in air temperature. strictly speaking, the regression lines are not exactly parallel to each other but diverge towards high temperature. in other words, higher temperature enhances the effect of solar radiation. by extrapolating the regression lines to the x -axis, the neutral air temperature at 300 w/m2
What could happen to catchment discharge in the long term?
the long-term hydrological simulations show that the catchment discharge could decrease to the same levels as those observed during the severe drought of the 1980s
Is there variability in future rainfall distribution?
our study shows large variability in future rainfall distribution within the catchment; where rainfall decreases toward the eastern part of the catchment and increases in the north
What does Fig. 6 show?
regional variations in precipitation are substantial fig. 6 
with regard to future climate, the results show clear trends of reduced rainfall over the catchment. this rainfall deficit, together with a continuing increase in potential evapotranspiration, suggests that runoff from the basin could be substantially reduced, especially in the long term (60-65%), compared to the 1961- 1990 reference period. as a result, the long-term hydrological simulations show that the catchment discharge could decrease to the same levels as those observed during the severe drought of the 1980s. our study shows large variability in future rainfall distribution within the catchment; where rainfall decreases toward the eastern part of the catchment and increases in the north. regional variations in precipitation are substantial fig. 6 ). shongwe et al. (2009) report a general increase in rainfall in the tropics, which is also the case in this study. in east africa they
measurement of precipitation are impacted by?
in situ measurements are especially impacted by wind effects on the gauge catch, especially for snow and light rain (adam lettenmaier 2003), and few measurements exist in areas of steep and complex topography (adam et al. 2006
what's the problems for the radar and space-based measurements?
for remotely sensed measurements (radar and space-based), the greatest problems are that only measurements of instantaneous rates can be made and there are uncertainties in algorithms for converting radiometric measurements (radar, microwave, infrared) into precipitation rates at the surface (e.g. krajewski et al. 2010
What to do To gain confidence in observations?
to gain confidence in observations, it is useful to examine the consistency of changes in a variety of complementary moisture variables, including both remotely sensed and gauge-measured precipitation, drought, evaporation, atmospheric moisture, soil moisture, and stream flow, although uncertainties exist with all of these variables as well (huntington 2006
difficulties in the measurement of precipitation remain an area of concern in quantifying the extent to which global and regional scale precipitation has changed. in situ measurements are especially impacted by wind effects on the gauge catch, especially for snow and light rain (adam lettenmaier 2003), and few measurements exist in areas of steep and complex topography (adam et al. 2006). for remotely sensed measurements (radar and space-based), the greatest problems are that only measurements of instantaneous rates can be made and there are uncertainties in algorithms for converting radiometric measurements (radar, microwave, infrared) into precipitation rates at the surface (e.g. krajewski et al. 2010). to gain confidence in observations, it is useful to examine the consistency of changes in a variety of complementary moisture variables, including both remotely sensed and gauge-measured precipitation, drought, evaporation, atmospheric moisture, soil moisture, and stream flow, although uncertainties exist with all of these variables as well (huntington 2006). 2.2. changes in water vapor as the climate warms, water-holding capacity increases with higher temperatures according to the c-c relationship, and, hence, it is natural to expect increases in water vapor amounts because relative humidity is more likely to remain about the same. changes
Can you explain developing country policy makers?
first, if, in the presence of uncertainty, mitigation is indeed more cost-effective than adaptation, how can the need for collective action on mitigation be strengthened at the international negotiation level, including by developing country negotiators? second, since the extent of mitigation is for the most part exogenous for individual country policy makers, to what extent does the optimal adaptation strategy depend on this exogenous parameter
Which model is not attempted in this paper?
particular importance from a national perspective, and answering it requires a numerical estimation of the model which is not attempted in this paper
What is reactive adaptation?
as noted earlier, the distinction between anticipative and reactive adaptation is important from a policy point of view because the rationale for the two actions are very different. prevention uses resources
this raises two questions for developing country policy makers. first, if, in the presence of uncertainty, mitigation is indeed more cost-effective than adaptation, how can the need for collective action on mitigation be strengthened at the international negotiation level, including by developing country negotiators? second, since the extent of mitigation is for the most part exogenous for individual country policy makers, to what extent does the optimal adaptation strategy depend on this exogenous parameter? this issue is of particular importance from a national perspective, and answering it requires a numerical estimation of the model which is not attempted in this paper. as noted earlier, the distinction between anticipative and reactive adaptation is important from a policy point of view because the rationale for the two actions are very different. prevention uses resources
Is the critical nutrient level for lakes to become turbid is lower or higher for smaller lakes?
we review work demonstrating that the critical nutrient level for lakes to become turbid is higher for smaller lakes, and seems likely to be affected by climatic change too
What are 2 organisms that temperate shallow lakes may be dominated by?
temperate shallow lakes may be dominated alternatively by charophytes, submerged angiosperms, green algae or cyanobacteria
When the nutrient load to shallow temporate lakes was strongly reduced did they always return to their original clear state?
 however, even if the nutrient load to such lakes was strongly reduced they often did not recover to their original clear state (sas, 1989
shallow lakes have become the archetypical example of ecosystems with alternative stable states. however, since the early conception of that theory, the image of ecosystem stability has been elaborated for shallow lakes far beyond the simple original model. after discussing how spatial heterogeneity and fluctuation of environmental conditions may affect the stability of lakes, we review work demonstrating that the critical nutrient level for lakes to become turbid is higher for smaller lakes, and seems likely to be affected by climatic change too. we then show how the image of just two contrasting states has been elaborated. different groups of primary producers may dominate shallow lakes, and such states dominated by a particular group may often represent alternative stable states. in tropical lakes, or small stagnant temperate waters, freefloating plants may represent an alternative stable state. temperate shallow lakes may be dominated alternatively by charophytes, submerged angiosperms, green algae or cyanobacteria. the change of the lake communities along a gradient of eutrophication may therefore be seen as a continuum in which gradual species replacements are interrupted at critical points by more dramatic shifts to a contrasting alternative regime dominated by different species. the originally identified shift between a clear and a turbid state remains one of the more dramatic examples, but is surely not the only discontinuity that can be observed in the response of these ecosystems to environmental change. keywords widespread problems resulting from eutrophication of shallow lakes in populated areas invoked numerous restoration projects in the last decades of the 20th century. however, even if the nutrient load to such lakes was strongly reduced they often did not recover to their original clear state (sas, 1989). research into the causes of this hysteresis has been surprisingly productive, not only in solving the restoration issue, but also in generating fundamental insights in the stability properties of these ecosystems (moss, 1988; jeppesen, 1998; jeppesen et al., 1998; scheffer, 1998). one of the most influential ideas that emerged from this work is arguably the theory that such lakes can be in two alternative stable states: clear with
Where is there an increasing effort to project the effects of climate change on species' distributions?
not surprisingly, there is an increasing effort to project the effects of climate change on species' distributions and regions of high biodiversity [1,2,3,4,5
Why is knowing whether particular species or hotspots of biodiversity are vulnerable important?
knowing whether particular species or hotspots of biodiversity are vulnerable to decline is important to planning management actions and understanding how ecosystem functions may change species distribution modeling is one tool for evaluating the potential impact of climate change on the distributions of biota [7,8
What is characterized by distribution models?
distribution models characterize dimensions, generally mean climatic variables, of the current realized niche of a species based on presence-absence data and then use future climate forecasts to project changes in the distribution of suitable habitat for a species
understanding how species distributions and patterns of diversity shift with changing climates has been a long-standing theme of ecology that has grown less academic with the specter of rapid climate change. not surprisingly, there is an increasing effort to project the effects of climate change on species' distributions and regions of high biodiversity [1,2,3,4,5]. knowing whether particular species or hotspots of biodiversity are vulnerable to decline is important to planning management actions and understanding how ecosystem functions may change species distribution modeling is one tool for evaluating the potential impact of climate change on the distributions of biota [7,8]. distribution models characterize dimensions, generally mean climatic variables, of the current realized niche of a species based on presence-absence data and then use future climate forecasts to project changes in the distribution of suitable habitat for a species. climate-driven species distribution models have several limitations including exclusion of other biotic, physiological, and geographic controls on a species' distribution. additionally, these models cannot mechanistically account for the role of climate in determining species distributions or quantify the limits of species abilities to migrate. furthermore, this technique ignores the capability of evolutionary change to compensate for species responses to changing climate and they assume reliance upon credible climatic projections by assuming that the ''suitable'' habitat is saturated and the data input into models is accurate [9,10,11,12,13,14]. projections from climate distribution modeling are also dependent upon the global circulation model selected, how well that model can be downscaled to predict local climate and assumptions about future atmospheric co2 levels. to deal with the potential limitations of model projections, increasingly studies often take an ensemble forecasting approach by modeling a number of future scenarios that bracket ranges of
Define climate adaptation policies?
this research will contribute to the development of a set of guiding principles, processes, models, and tools for local and other governance entities to adopt in their climate adaptation policies
what is framing adaptation?
framing adaptation as a social justice issue can also initiate dialogue between nontraditional partners - such as environment and planning departments, low-income and ethnic minority communities, and social and environmental justice advocacy groups - that can result in new coalitions promoting equitable adaptation
what is the importance of evaluating the roles of different levels of government in advancing adaptation planning?
finally, this research agenda highlights the importance of evaluating the roles of different levels of government in advancing adaptation planning, and whether just adaptation approaches require rescaling state institutions and government-society relationships to cope with and manage the climate transition92. past approaches to adaptation often privileged local scales of intervention based upon motivated leaders, voluntary networks, and nongovernmental or global
as a first step, this research agenda calls for empirically measuring and assessing outcomes related to justice and equity of recent and ongoing adaptation planning efforts. this involves identifying cases where adaptation planning results in maladaptive and inequitable outcomes for marginalized groups and those cases where planners and designers overcome existing structural limitations to advance equitable adaptation. this research will contribute to the development of a set of guiding principles, processes, models, and tools for local and other governance entities to adopt in their climate adaptation policies. in addition, this road map points to opportunities to reconceive procedural justice as more than consultation with affected communities. systemically changing key institutions shaping public health and economic wellbeing requires related state organizations to be at the table in adaptation planning. framing adaptation as a social justice issue can also initiate dialogue between nontraditional partners - such as environment and planning departments, low-income and ethnic minority communities, and social and environmental justice advocacy groups - that can result in new coalitions promoting equitable adaptation. similarly, opportunities exist to foster dialogue between these groups, critical theorists, and urban designers to transform the way people talk about and design equitable adaptation. finally, this research agenda highlights the importance of evaluating the roles of different levels of government in advancing adaptation planning, and whether just adaptation approaches require rescaling state institutions and government-society relationships to cope with and manage the climate transition92. past approaches to adaptation often privileged local scales of intervention based upon motivated leaders, voluntary networks, and nongovernmental or global
Are there any other ways in which wastewater treatment can be done?
the effective operational control of any wastewater treatment system will only be achieved by the implementation of an appropriate monitoring programme
How does the treatment work?
the anaerobic treatment systems can be divided into three parts, as presented in the schematic representation
What kind of data is the the monitoring programme going to generate?
the monitoring programme should be broad enough to include all the aspects relevant to the operation of the treatment system
the effective operational control of any wastewater treatment system will only be achieved by the implementation of an appropriate monitoring programme, to enable both the verification of the operational parameters and the optimisation of the operational routine. the monitoring programme should be broad enough to include all the aspects relevant to the operation of the treatment system, without disregarding the local reality and the availability of human resources and material. therefore, not only the development of physical-chemical and microbiological analyses becomes important, but also the gathering of a series of information on the operation of the system, as covered in the following items. usually, the anaerobic treatment systems can be divided into three parts, as presented in the schematic representation of figure 28.2: 778 anaerobic reactors
What is another phrase for ego-involving climate?
discriminant validity
What does the correlational analysis demonstrate support for?
both convergent and discriminant validity
Those who perceived a caring climate were also more likely to perceive what?
the environment as taskinvolving
convergent and discriminant validity to examine convergent and discriminant validity of the ccs correlations were calculated between caring and taskand egoinvolving climates. it was hypothesized that the caring climate would be distinct but positively related to a task-involving motivational climate (i.e., convergent validity) and negatively related to an ego-involving climate (i.e., discriminant validity). the correlational analysis demonstrated support for both convergent and discriminant validity; that is, the caring climate was positively correlated with the task-involving climate while being negatively related to the ego-involving climate (see table 2). therefore, those who perceived a caring climate were also more likely to perceive the environment as taskinvolving. however, it should be noted that the shared variance between these measures only ranged from 15% to 34% suggesting that the caring climate was distinct from the motivational climate, albeit moderately associated.
What does the seasonal variation of the mean diurnal distribution of the number of people in Karaiskaki confirm?
the seasonal variation of the mean diurnal distribution of the number of people in karaiskaki confirms that there is a relationship between the amount of people present and the local meteorological conditions
At which times were observations made during summer?
at this stage it has to be borne in mind that during summer, observations along with measurements stopped at 14:00 and began again at 18:00 till 20:30
In autumn what period has the highest occurrence of people normally? Why?
in autumn (fig. 14), the highest occurrence of people is normally in the mid-morning period, coinciding with the period small children would be taken to the playground and elderly people meeting up to exchange news, read their papers, etc., while it reduces as the day moves towards
the seasonal variation of the mean diurnal distribution of the number of people in karaiskaki confirms that there is a relationship between the amount of people present and the local meteorological conditions. at this stage it has to be borne in mind that during summer, observations along with measurements stopped at 14:00 and began again at 18:00 till 20:30. the reason was for the people carrying out the surveys to avoid the afternoon heat, when normally air temperatures peaked, as well as rest before returning to the square for the evening. in the other seasons, the surveys continued throughout the day, until 17:00 when it would start getting dark. in summer (fig. 14), presence is rather stable in the morning period, at relatively low numbers, decreasing after midday. in early evening, presence increases significantly as it is getting dark and air temperature is dropping. in autumn (fig. 14), the highest occurrence of people is normally in the mid-morning period, coinciding with the period small children would be taken to the playground and elderly people meeting up to exchange news, read their papers, etc., while it reduces as the day moves towards
Give some evidences to show awareness of weather has been a major feature of the human psyche throughtout history?
the universal belief in weather deities, the prominence of weather events in folklore, and the ubiquitous preoccupation with weather signs and portents are evidence that an awareness of weather, particularly a fear of inclement events, has been a major feature of the human psyche throughout history
Which aspect of weather has become an important science?
weather forecasting has become an important science, fundamental to the success of agriculture, transportation, trade, tourism, and virtually every other aspect of human enterprise
What weather events from around the world are a major news feature?
disastrous weather events from around the world are a major news feature, with detailed descriptions and graphic illustration
weather, the short-term condition of climate, has a much more direct and tangible impact on daily life. since earliest times, weather has been fundamental to the success of human activities, from agriculture to seafaring, from warfare to leisure. the universal belief in weather deities, the prominence of weather events in folklore, and the ubiquitous preoccupation with weather signs and portents are evidence that an awareness of weather, particularly a fear of inclement events, has been a major feature of the human psyche throughout history. the significance of weather has not diminished in modern society. indeed, in the past few decades, weather awareness, particularly in the global context, has reached unprecedented levels. weather forecasting has become an important science, fundamental to the success of agriculture, transportation, trade, tourism, and virtually every other aspect of human enterprise. weather data are collected from every corner of the globe and disseminated in digested form by government and private agencies as an aid to decision making in all walks of life. continually updated forecasts and other information are available to the public via the popular media. disastrous weather events from around the world are a major news feature, with detailed descriptions and graphic illustration. with this awareness of weather has come a new realization of the changeability of climate.
Richness was sampled in when?
june in one circular area
or each plot, the sampling bag was removed and all sampled material was stored in what?
ethanol
The use of higher taxonomic levels has been shown to what?
produce a good approximation of total species richness
richness was sampled in june in one circular area (40 cm diameter) in each grassland plot using a d-vac suction sampler (ecotech gmbh, bonn, germany). for each plot, the sampling bag was removed and all sampled material was stored in ethanol. arthropod samples were quantified as the total number of individuals and identified at least to order level. however, some taxa were identified to the family level (families within the coleoptera, hemiptera most hymenoptera and in one case to genus level psylliodes chrysomelidae ). the use of higher taxonomic levels has been shown to produce a good approximation of total species richness (biaggini et al. 2007).
What is the paper's second concern?
the paper's second concern is for possible biases when climate reports are examined merely from managers, a practice that is widespread in the literature
What do columns 2 and 3 show?
these show (in columns 2 and 3) that managers described their organization's climate significantly more positively than did other employees on 11 of the 17 scales
What do we expect from prediction two?
on the basis of prediction two, we expected that climate-productivity links would be stronger for managers' than for non-managers' perceptions of climate
the paper's second concern is for possible biases when climate reports are examined merely from managers, a practice that is widespread in the literature. as well as containing fullsample information (discussed above), table 1 also summarizes separate analyses for managers and non-managers. these show (in columns 2 and 3) that managers described their organization's climate significantly more positively than did other employees on 11 of the 17 scales. despite that, there was considerable correlational agreement between average perceptions of the two sub-groups in each company. column four of table 1 shows that correlations between managers' and non-managers' perceptions on each climate dimension (n 42 companies) ranged from .37 (for reflexivity) to .91 (for quality); the mean r-value was .68. when managers viewed their company's climate relatively more positively or negatively than managers in other companies, so did their non-manager colleagues. on the basis of prediction two, we expected that climate-productivity links would be stronger for managers' than for non-managers' perceptions of climate. however, table 1 shows that the mean difference between climate-productivity correlations for managers and non-managers (.04 across 17 climate scales) does not come close to statistical significance.
what is the prediction UN regarding  population living in urban areas by 2050?
the united nations forecasts that by 2050, some 65 per cent of the world's population will be living in urban areas - as these increasingly become the world's centres of culture, industry and economy
What is the effect of Production and consumption in heat?
production and consumption that are concentrated within their boundaries are also generators of the heat and carbon dioxide emissions that have been driving global climate change
where does Greenhouse gases come from?
greenhouse gases come from both natural and anthropogenic activities
climate and cities have a long relationship that is now becoming more complex. the united nations forecasts that by 2050, some 65 per cent of the world's population will be living in urban areas - as these increasingly become the world's centres of culture, industry and economy. many cities have grown to a size that is unprecedented historically. the united nations population division forecasts that by 2015, 35 cities - more than half of them in coastal zones - will have populations exceeding 8 million.(6) while modern cities cannot be considered separately from the larger regional climate systems, they exert profound effects on both regional weather and global climate, as they are concentrated islands that absorb heat. production and consumption that are concentrated within their boundaries are also generators of the heat and carbon dioxide emissions that have been driving global climate change. greenhouse gases come from both natural and anthropogenic activities. anthropogenic activities, mainly the burning of fossil fuels in different sectors, are a key source of greenhouse gases. a national greenhouse gas inventory for bangladesh revealed that the energy sector contributes more than 60 per cent of the total greenhouse gases of 15,178 gigagrammes per year.(7) energy industries, other industries, transport and the residential sector are key consumers of different types of fossil fuels. among these sectors, the energy industry contributes more than 35 per cent of the greenhouse gases while transport (road, rail, navigation and domestic aviation) contributes about 17 per cent, of which 70 per cent comes from the road transport system. as the country's capital city, and with its multiplicity of sectors, dhaka is consuming different types of fossil fuels. the commercial, residential and industrial sectors are using mainly electricity, of which more than
What can be learnt from incidents that occur between national boundaries?
much can be learnt from incidents that occur between national boundaries where the unrest is dealt with by law. when the incidents involve two countries they may trigger a war. the global water wars have long been predicted and there are a number of flashpoints for such conflicts around the world, from the mekong to the rh o ne
What is one high-profile region where chronic water shortages combine with political instability?
one high-profile region where chronic water shortages combine with political instability is around the river jordan
What will remain the flashpoint for water availability in this area?
despite a far-sighted programme to bring jordanian, palestinian and israeli hydrologists together to improve water quality in the river, and manage water demand and supply in the region, water availability will inevitably remain a flashpoint, particularly as populations in the regions continue to grow rapidly and rainfall can be virtually non-existent during periods of drought and under conditions of drier summers with climate change
much can be learnt from incidents that occur between national boundaries where the unrest is dealt with by law. when the incidents involve two countries they may trigger a war. the global water wars have long been predicted and there are a number of flashpoints for such conflicts around the world, from the mekong to the rh o ne. one high-profile region where chronic water shortages combine with political instability is around the river jordan. despite a far-sighted programme to bring jordanian, palestinian and israeli hydrologists together to improve water quality in the river, and manage water demand and supply in the region, water availability will inevitably remain a flashpoint, particularly as populations in the regions continue to grow rapidly and rainfall can be virtually non-existent during periods of drought and under conditions of drier summers with climate change. one hope lies in the development of desalinating technology, such as already supplies much of the water for the city of eilat, with its population of 56 000 people, and the 80% of the water requirements of the kibbutzim of the negev desert adjacent to the dead sea, which has already dropped a massive 17 m since 1975, according to the times atlas of the world on an even larger scale, the aral sea has been described as the worst environmental disaster in the world and it is predicted that within 10 years it will be the cause of armed conflict. the saline inland sea, divided between the former soviet republics of kazakhstan and uzbekistan, has been drying up for the past 25 years since the former ussr began a vast irrigation scheme drawing water from its two tributary rivers to grow cotton and rice in the desert. the irrigated area expanded from 6 million hectares in the 1960s to 8 million hectares and the sea began to shrink. it is now reduced to three separate parts and is still evaporating. the shoreline has receded on average by 250 km and the salinity has increased dramatically, making the water a viscous salt paste in many parts, containing pesticides and minerals. high levels of liver and kidney cancer around the sea have become commonplace. although an action plan has been introduced there seems to be little agreement between the five countries that border the lake on how to move more free ebooks http://fast-file.blogspot.com
What influence the vulnerability of water resources ?
the response of water users, as well as water management mechanisms, to climate change will greatly influence the vulnerability of water resources
why impacts of climate change on water resources  vary across the country ?
the impacts of climate change on water resources will vary across the country, due to regional differences in climate changes, hydrological characteristics, water demand and management practices
in addition to the expected shifts in hydrological parameters, potential changes in the economic, demographic and environmental factors that influence water resources must also be considered. the response of water users, as well as water management mechanisms, to climate change will greatly influence the vulnerability of water resources. both the ability and the willingness of society to undertake appropriate adaptive measures are critically important. the impacts of climate change on water resources will vary across the country, due to regional differences in climate changes, hydrological characteristics, water demand and management practices. some of the major potential impacts are listed in table 2. from this table, it is evident that the potential impacts of extreme events, seasonal shifts in flow regimes and reduced winter ice cover are key issues for several regions of canada.
Which suggested a weakening of the atmospheric circulation?
previous studies of reanalysis products have suggested a weakening of the atmospheric circulation associated with the indian summer monsoon from the arabian sea to south china sea for recent decades, in response to a reduced thermal contrast between east asia and the tropical indian ocean during boreal summer (wu 2005
Define summer monsoon?
this weakening of the indian summer monsoon is also apparent in rain gauge observations showing a significant decreasing trend over most subdivisions of india (naidu et al. 2009
Why the attendant surface wind change has not been examined ?
the attendant surface wind change has not been examined because of the spurious intensification of climatological winds in ship observations
previous studies of reanalysis products have suggested a weakening of the atmospheric circulation associated with the indian summer monsoon from the arabian sea to south china sea for recent decades, in response to a reduced thermal contrast between east asia and the tropical indian ocean during boreal summer (wu 2005). this weakening of the indian summer monsoon is also apparent in rain gauge observations showing a significant decreasing trend over most subdivisions of india (naidu et al. 2009). the attendant surface wind change has not been examined because of the spurious intensification of climatological winds in ship observations. with a weakened indian summer monsoon, the
Write the scientific name of deer mice ?
peromyscus maniculatus
Write the disease caused by hanta virus ?
hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome
Which virus isolated from the deer mice ?
hantavirus
in 1992, heavy rainfall events led to extraordinary biomass production by plants in a semi-arid, southwestern part of the us. this increase in forage availability facilitated population booms of deer mice peromyscus maniculatus ). overcrowding and forage shortage in the following year caused increased rodent activity in human buildings, and this in turn increased the contact between humans and mice, which carry hantavirus. hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome is frequently lethal to humans, and a regional epidemic was observed in the area in 1993. the same chain of events was repeated between 1997 and 1999 (hjelle and glass 2000).
How many sites were used for this experiment?
based on the flux dataset obtained from the 52 sites (table s1
What was measured in this experiment?
we estimated the carbon budgets of forest, grassland, and wetland ecosystems in typical climate zones in china (table 1
What was the NEP of forest ecosystems in China?
the nep of forest ecosystems in china ranged from 168.8 to 592.4 gc m 2yr 1, with the largest carbon sink in central subtropical forest
based on the flux dataset obtained from the 52 sites (table s1), we estimated the carbon budgets of forest, grassland, and wetland ecosystems in typical climate zones in china (table 1). in general, the forest ecosystems in china had a relatively large c sequestration capacity. the nep of forest ecosystems in china ranged from 168.8 to 592.4 gc m 2yr 1, with the largest carbon sink in central subtropical forest. the nep in warm temperate forest, northern subtropical forest, and southern subtropical forest ranged from 385 to 510 gc m 2yr 1. the tropical forest exhibited as a weak carbon sink,
After data is collected what is the next step?
from the data in the previous step, catch-ratio charts are constructed for different zones (positions) at the building facade
What is the difference between Eulerian and Lagrangian?
the eulerian approach is adopted for wind-flow field, while the lagrangian approach is used for the rain phase
Which Scientists employed the Eulerian-Eulerian model, what year?
huang and li (2010) employed an ''eulerian-eulerian'' model for wdr
from the data in the previous step, catch-ratio charts are constructed for different zones (positions) at the building facade. the experimental data record of reference wind speed, wind direction and horizontal rainfall intensity for a given rain event is combined with the appropriate catch-ratio charts to determine the corresponding spatial and temporal distribution of wdr on the building facade. this model is referred to as the ''eulerian-lagrangian'' model for wdr, because the eulerian approach is adopted for wind-flow field, while the lagrangian approach is used for the rain phase. recently, huang and li (2010) employed an ''eulerian-eulerian'' model for wdr, in which also the rain phase is treated as a continuum, and they successfully validated this model based on the wdr measurements on the vliet building by blocken and carmeliet (2005) urban physics: effect of the micro-climate on comfort, health and energy demand 209
What did it contain in the questionnaire used in the fieldwork? contained open and closed questions about coping and adaptation strategies
the questionnaire used in the fieldwork contained open as well as closed questions about coping and adaptation strategies
what did closed issues cover? coping strategies adopted by families to deal with the impacts of droughts and floods
n the case of coping strategies that households adopted to deal with impacts of droughts and floods
How important is aid dependence? Was particularly important when people had to deal with the impacts of floods
reliance on aid was particularly important where people had to deal with flood impacts (ethiopia, kenya and nepal
the questionnaire used in the fieldwork contained open as well as closed questions about coping and adaptation strategies. in the case of coping strategies that households adopted to deal with impacts of droughts and floods (table 4), the closed questions actually covered almost all the coping mechanisms people used. reliance on aid was particularly important where people had to deal with flood impacts (ethiopia, kenya and nepal). in the case studies that focused on droughts (burkina faso and gambia), selling livestock to buy food when harvests fail was a common coping strategy. many households across the research sites also tried to cope by engaging in non-farm income-generating activities when their usual, more climate-sensitive, source of food and money was affected by drought or flood. social networks played an important role in people's coping behaviour. the people who supported with money to buy food and other essentials in the aftermath
What year did SMIC had recommended that a major initiative in global data collection?
1971
in 1971 smic had recommended that a major initiative in global data collection, new international measurement standards for environmental data, and the integration of existing programs to form a global monitoring network should be developed. the ozone challenge provided the perfect opportunity to see how effectively mankind, communally, could respond to what appeared to be a rapidly developing, global, catastrophe. ground -based measurements of ozone were first started in 1956, at halley bay, antarctica. satellite measurements of ozone started in the early 1970s, but the first comprehensive worldwide measurements started in 1978 with the nimbus-7 satellite. in addition to the physical measurements, in 1974 m.j. molina and f.s. rowland published a laboratory study 18 demonstrating the ability of chlorofluorocarbons (cfcs) to catalytically break down ozone in the presence of high-frequency ultraviolet (uv) light. further studies estimated that the ozone layer would be depleted by cfcs by about 7% within 60 years. based on the recommendations of such studies, the usa banned cfcs in aerosol sprays in 1978, showing a level of real leadership at this stage, which spoke of the courage of the then us administration. slowly, various nations agreed to ban cfcs in aerosols but industry fought the banning of valuable cfcs in other applications. a large shock was needed to motivate the world to get serious about phasing out cfcs and that shock came in a 1985 field study by farman, gardiner and shanklin 19 that summarized data that had been collected by the british antarctic survey showing that ozone levels had dropped to 10% below the normal january levels for antarctica. more free ebooks http://fast-file.blogspot.com
What is peak oil likely to do to individuals?
peak oil is likely to reduce mobility for individuals
What will increasing oil prices due to depletion cause?
increasing oil prices due to depletion will increase the amount of oil-related income flowing into autocratic and weakly institutionalized states
What will be an obstacle for energy transitions?
it is feasible to assume that increased conflicts will be an obstacle for energy transitions
others have shown that peak oil is likely to reduce mobility for individuals as well as disrupting urban freight movements (aftabuzzaman and mazloumi, 2011). in addition, krumdieck et al. (2010) found that people living in low-density sprawled urban forms with very few work or resource destinations accessible by public transport, biking or walking, are at a higher risk than people living in concentrated activity areas with integrated land use and transport modes and with closer access to production and work activities. as a result, peak oil could hit certain groups in society harder and lead to increased social tensions. furthermore, increasing oil prices due to depletion will increase the amount of oil-related income flowing into autocratic and weakly institutionalized states. colgan (2012) notes that such states are the most likely sites of future revolutionary governments and highlight that such regimes and large oil incomes are a toxic combination for international peace and security. consequently, the world might expect further turbulence and political violence in oil-producing regions in the future. it is feasible to assume that increased conflicts will be an obstacle for energy transitions. it is entirely possible to change the global energy system into something less dependent in fossil fuels. fuel/energy substitutions can be found in history and are often highlighted in the debate. however, one must read carefully and not overstate the simplicity of an energy transition. friedrich (2010) gave examples illustrating that peak oil can throw countries into sociological trajectories not prone to easy energy transitions. nothing is guaranteeing that the relatively peaceful period currently experienced by the developed nations that is favourable to rapid energy source transitions will continue much longer.
Name the five key beliefs that predispose people to support an aggressive public policy response?
1) climate change is real, (2) i am certain it is real, (3) is it human caused, (4) it is harmful to people, and (5) the problem can be solved
How visible is home energy use in the US?
although "smart meters" are rapidly gaining market share in some nations, home energy use in the u.s. is still essentially invisible
What discourages involvement and skill development in energy-reduction strategies?
this lack of timely and specific feedback discourages involvement and skill development in energy-reduction strategies
krosnick and colleagues92conducted research to identify specific cognitions or beliefs that predict people's perception of climate change as a serious national issue that warrants federal public policy response. in essence, they demonstrated five key beliefs that predispose people to support an aggressive public policy response: (1) climate change is real, (2) i am certain it is real, (3) is it human caused, (4) it is harmful to people, and (5) the problem can be solved. these beliefs, therefore, can be considered important objectives for climate change-communication campaigns. skills. although "smart meters" are rapidly gaining market share in some nations, home energy use in the u.s. is still essentially invisible. people receive monthly home energy bills, which is analogous to receiving a single non-itemized bill at the end of the month for all food purchases.93this lack of timely and specific feedback discourages involvement and skill development in energy-reduction strategies.
What has become an increasingly common topic at science conferences?
climate change and its potential impacts on water resources have become an increasingly common topic at scientific conferences and meetings among water managers
What does the report focus on?
the report focuses on managed water resources
What was the name of the working group that was formed?
an interagency working group was formed to carry out this mission
climate change and its potential impacts on water resources have become an increasingly common topic at scientific conferences and meetings among water managers. this is particularly true for the four federal agencies that have collaboratively managed data and information for water resources since their founding. these are the usace (formed in 1802), the usgs (formed in 1879), reclamation (formed in 1902), and noaa [formed in 1970 from a number of existing agencies, including the u.s. coast and geodetic survey (1807) and the weather bureau (1870)]. the four agencies, two termed "operating agencies" (usace and reclamation) and two termed "science agencies" (usgs and noaa),\\x04 share a symbiotic relationship, where the operating capabilities required by one agency may drive the direction of science inquiries for another, which in turn may result in improved knowledge and processes for operations. similarly, the data collected and compiled by one agency for a specific purpose can be used by another agency to supplement other data and information for an entirely different purpose. given the rate at which observed climate variability impacts have affected water resources projects, particularly in the west, and the potential for significant future changes, the senior leaders of the four agencies expressed a need to collaborate on future climate-related efforts. in may 2007, representatives met to discuss recent findings from the research community, their relevance to water management, and approaches that were already being considered or piloted to incorporate climate-change considerations into water management. it was agreed that a comprehensive assessment of approaches for including climate variability and change in water resources management would be valuable. an interagency working group was formed to carry out this mission. this report presents an exploration by the four agencies of strategies to improve water management by tracking, anticipating, and responding to climate change. the terms of reference for the report are to consider the responses and adaptations of a responsible federal body in the monitoring, management, and future design of the nation's water resources. the report focuses on managed water resources. this report is a first step; the agencies will next address the knowledge, technology, and research gaps, and the monitoring strategies for improving understanding and aiding in decisionmaking. although the report does not offer recommendations, it does lay a foundation for future climate change actions.
what time periods were used in this data?
20 global climate models (gcms) for three future time periods (20102039, 2030-2059, and 2070-2099
What was the goal of this research?
which form the basis for our attempt here to understand systematic changes in pnw energy
What is GCM
global climate models (gcms
we used composite temperature and precipitation scenarios which are spatial (regional) and temporal (monthly) averages of climatic changes simulated by 20 global climate models (gcms) for three future time periods (20102039, 2030-2059, and 2070-2099) and two emissions scenarios (a1b and b1) (mote and salathe 2009, this report). the combination of three time periods and two emissions scenarios results in six climate change scenarios, which we will refer to as composite scenarios. the composite monthly average temperature and precipitation projections for each time period and each emissions scenario are given in table 1. around these mean projections of future climate there is a range of temperature and precipitation changes simulated by different climate models for different time periods due to both differing gcm sensitivity to greenhouse forcing and simulated decadal sequencing of precipitation and temperature variability (mote and salathe 2009, this report). these uncertainties notwithstanding, the composite scenarios represent a consensus prediction of systematic changes in climate, which form the basis for our attempt here to understand systematic changes in pnw energy supply and demand.
After what year did Austria support further institutional development and training?
after 1994, austria supported further institutional development and training
What other benefits did the project bring?
besides the advantages of the electrification, the project has also brought benefits in terms of a reduction of the use of firewood, as planned. the evaluation mentions the extreme climatic circumstances in which the plant was built, and cites them as a continuing problem for the plant's buildings
com/env/epoc/dcd/dac(2003)1/final 63 63 hydropower plant was being built when it was hit by a glof in 1985. subsequently, between 1988 and 1994, a new site was selected and a new plant constructed. after 1994, austria supported further institutional development and training, so that a locally owned private organization could take over the management of the plant. the evaluation notes that the total investment costs were rather high, and that the project took much more time and management efforts than originally planned. nevertheless, it was deemed a success. austria's willingness to engage in intensive long-term efforts probably made the difference between this project and comparable, but less successful, hydropower projects by other donors. besides the advantages of the electrification, the project has also brought benefits in terms of a reduction of the use of firewood, as planned. the evaluation mentions the extreme climatic circumstances in which the plant was built, and cites them as a continuing problem for the plant's buildings. no reference is made to climate change. d.2.17 makulu-barun national park buffer zone development (austrian development cooperation/eco himal)40
What is one way of avoiding emissions?
avoiding emissions by protecting high-carbon ecosystems from land-use change that depletes their carbon stocks is an important part of a comprehensive approach to greenhouse gas mitigation
on the basis of our review of key scienti f c issues related to the global carbon cycle, the following insights should be considered when climate change mitigation polices are being negotiated, regulatory frameworks formulated and programmes and projects implemented. as long as the right kinds of land management responses are implemented, the land carbon bu f er can provide a valuable, cost-e f ective, short-term service in helping to reduce atmco2, and slow the rate of anthropogenic climate change, bringing cobene f ts for biodiversity and sustainable livelihoods, and giving us some time to develop a low carbon economy. t ere are strict, environmentally determined limits on the maximum amount of carbon that can be restored to land carbon stocks, and good reasons why this maximum will not be achieved. sequestering carbon into depleted ecosystem stocks removes co2 from the atmosphere and is thus usefully considered as partially re f lling the bu f er that was depleted by human activities. avoiding emissions by protecting high-carbon ecosystems from land-use change that depletes their carbon stocks is an important part of a comprehensive approach to greenhouse gas mitigation. t e mitigation value of forests lies not in their present net uptake of co2, but in the longevity of their accumulated carbon stocks. consistent with our understanding of the lifetime of the airborne fraction of a pulse of co2, the most e f ective form of climate change mitigation is to avoid carbon emissions from all sources. t is means that there is no option but to cut fossil fuel emissions deeply, and not to continue these emissions under the erroneous assumption that they can be o f set in the long term by the uptake of co2 in land systems.
How many population-specific response functions were developed from quadractic models?
five population-specific response functions were developed from quadratic models for 110 populations of pinus sylvestris growing at 47 planting sites in eurasia and north america
How many populations of Pinus sylvestris were used?
five population-specific response functions were developed from quadratic models for 110 populations of pinus sylvestris growing at 47 planting sites in eurasia and north america
Where were the Pinus sylvestris populations from?
five population-specific response functions were developed from quadratic models for 110 populations of pinus sylvestris growing at 47 planting sites in eurasia and north america
five population-specific response functions were developed from quadratic models for 110 populations of pinus sylvestris growing at 47 planting sites in eurasia and north america. the functions predict 13 year height from climate: degree-days 5 degc; mean annual temperature; degree-days 0 degc; summer-winter temperature differential; and a moisture index, the ratio of degree-days 5 degc to mean annual precipitation. validation of the response functions with two sets of independent data produced for all functions statistically significant simple correlations with coefficients as high as 0.81 between actual and predicted heights. the response functions described the widely different growth potentials typical of natural populations and demonstrated that these growth potentials have different climatic optima. populations nonetheless tend to inhabit climates colder than their optima, with the disparity between the optimal and inhabited climates becoming greater as the climate becomes more severe. when driven by a global wanning scenario of the hadley center, the functions described short-term physiologic and long-term evolutionary effects that were geographically complex. the short-term effects should be negative in the warmest climates but strongly positive in the coldest. long-term effects eventually should ameliorate the negative short-term impacts, enhance the positive, and in time, substantially increase productivity throughout most of the contemporary pine forests of eurasia. realizing the long-term gains will require redistribution of genotypes across the landscape, a process that should take up to 13 generations and therefore many years. keywords: climate-change impacts, climate response functions, microevolution, population adaptation, genetic responses to climate, predicting responses to change
Climate change may translate into what?
climate change may translate into changed design and operational assumptions for determining resource supplies, system demands, system performance requirements, and operational constraints
The strategy options available for consideration will vary from what?
the strategy options available for consideration will vary from system to system, as will the preference among these options
Adaptation options designed to ensure what?
adaptation options designed to ensure water supply during average and drought conditions require integrating demand-side and supply-side strategies and depend on the existence of an operational framework for adaptive management and planning to cope with uncertainty
there are several water-management options that might be considered to facilitate adaptation to climate change, including operational changes, demand management, and infrastructure changes. climate change may translate into changed design and operational assumptions for determining resource supplies, system demands, system performance requirements, and operational constraints. the strategy options available for consideration will vary from system to system, as will the preference among these options. the following section outlines some potential strategies that might be considered and also discusses some of the challenges in evaluating and implementing the adaptation options. adaptation options designed to ensure water supply during average and drought conditions require integrating demand-side and supply-side strategies and depend on the existence of an operational framework for adaptive management and planning to cope with uncertainty. evaluation of such strategies would likely require a partnership between federal, state, and local interests. this chapter does not go into the specific planning authorities; instead available options are presented for adapting to climate change as it occurs across various temporal and spatial scales. these options would include the incorporation of lessons from responses to climate variability into longer term vulnerability-reduction efforts and within governance mechanisms from communities and watersheds to international agreements. integrated watershed management provides an important governing framework for anticipating and achieving successful adaptation measures across socioeconomic, environmental, and administrative systems. to be effective, integrated approaches must occur at the appropriate scale or scales needed to facilitate effective actions for specific outcomes, and they must be based on strong linkages among monitoring, research, and management as climate varies and changes. a more comprehensive mode of operation that includes watershed management (given interbasin transfers and so forth) is integrated water resources management. integrated watermanagement strategies include capturing social and individual risk perception, reshaping planning processes, coordinating land and water resources management, recognizing waterquantity and water-quality linkages, increasing conjunctive use of surface water and ground water, improving techniques to manage demand and conserve water, protecting and restoring natural systems, and learning through adaptive management experiments, including consideration of climate change. in addition, integrated strategies explicitly address impediments to the flow of information across the nodes of action (agencies, states, tribes, communities, and the private sector) and focus on decision quality as well as acceptability (pulwarty, 2003). institutional efforts to reduce conflict can also help to achieve desired goals. a fully integrated approach is not always needed, but rather the appropriate scale for integration will depend on the extent to which it facilitates effective action in response to specific needs (moench and others, 2003). in particular, an integrated approach to water management that is robust--that can produce socially acceptable options and inform decisionmaking as resource characteristics (quality, quantity, and reliability) change--could help to resolve conflicts among competing water users. in several places in the western united states, water managers and various interest groups have been experimenting with methods to promote consensus-based decisionmaking as new information arises. these efforts include local watershed initiatives and state-led or federal-sponsored efforts to incorporate stakeholder involvement in planning processes (u.s. department of the interior, 200\\x04). such initiatives can facilitate negotiations between competing interest groups to achieve mutually satisfactory problem-solving that considers a wide range of factors.
What will affect society's ability to use forest resources?
future climate change will affect society's ability to use forest resources
Why the adaptation options to respond to impacts on the timber supply in Canada for the next 50 to 100 years are limited mainly to forest protection and wood utilisation ?
adaptation options to respond to impacts on the timber supply in canada for the next 50 to 100 years are limited mainly to forest protection and wood utilisation because these forests are already in the ground
What should the government agencies do?
government agencies should take the lead in creating an environment to foster adaptation in forestry and in developing the necessary information required to respond
future climate change will affect society's ability to use forest resources.we take account of climate in forest management and this will help us adapt to the effects of climate change on forests. however, society will have to adjust to how forests adapt by changing expectations for the use of forest resources because management can only influence the timing and direction of forest adaptation at selected locations. there will be benefits as well as loses and an important component of adaptation will be balancing values. adaptation options to respond to impacts on the timber supply in canada for the next 50 to 100 years are limited mainly to forest protection and wood utilisation because these forests are already in the ground.adaptation through reforestation will focus on commercial tree species. it is important to start developing adaptation strategies now. these include assessing forest vulnerability to climate change, revising expectations of forest use, determining research and educational needs, development of forest policies to facilitate adaptation, and determining when to implement responses. government agencies should take the lead in creating an environment to foster adaptation in forestry and in developing the necessary information required to respond. key words: climate change, impacts, adaptation, vulnerability, forests, ecosystems, risk management
What does Fig. 6 show?
fig. 6 shows the average annual recharge rates obtained from the help3 analysis for the grand river watershed
fig. 6 shows the average annual recharge rates obtained from the help3 analysis for the grand river watershed. the average annual groundwater recharge in the watershed is estimated to be approximately 200 mm/year, which is approximately one-fifth of the average annual precipitation (950 mm/year). as shown in fig. 6 recharge varies considerably across the watershed, responding directly to variations in land use and the hydraulic characteristics of the underlying soils. because of the one-dimensional nature of the help3 model, the spatial variation is not constrained by the modelling approach, i.e., no aggregation of input data is required, but is only limited by the scale of the input data. areas of high recharge (as shown by fig. 6 may also indicate regions where the underlying aquifers are subjected to increased vulnerability from contamination. this may have significant implications on land use planning near the urban areas, where existing lands are rapidly being converted into residential subdivisions and industrial areas.
What is heterotrophic bacteria?
carbonaceous matter
What are two types of organisms?
methanogenic and nitrifying
What is the reproduction rate of methanogenic and nitrifying organisms?
very slow
systems with suspended biomass, with recirculation thc t). in these systems, the excess sludge flow can be adjusted in order to maintain thc tdup, while the hydraulic detention time t can be maintained at a minimum (minimum volume of the reactor). consequently, the sludge recirculation is a way of increasing thc without necessarily increasing t (or v). for the aerobic removal of the carbonaceous matter, the solids retention time of the heterotrophic bacteria is usually much higher than the minimum time required. however, for the methanogenesis in anaerobic systems, as well as for the oxidation of ammonia in aerobic systems, greater care must be exercised. the reproduction rate of the methanogenic and nitrifying organisms is very slow and there is the risk of their wash-out of the system if the influent flow increases substantially or if their reproduction rate is reduced due to some environmental problem.
40Foster illustrates what?
marx's conception of the metabolic rift under capitalism illuminates social-natural relations and the degradation of nature
The metabolic rift theory is a pwoerful tool for analyzing what?
human interactions with nature and ecological degradation, especially regarding agricultural production
The nutrients transferred to the city accumulate as waste and become what?
a pollution problem
the metabolic rift theory has become a powerful conceptual tool for analyzing human interactions with nature and ecological degradation, especially regarding agricultural production.40foster illustrates how marx's conception of the metabolic rift under capitalism illuminates social-natural relations and the degradation of nature in a number of ways: (1) "the decline in the natural fertility of the soil due to the disruption of the soil nutrient cycle," through transferring nutrients over long-distances to new locations; (2) new scientific and technological developments, under capitalist relations, increase the exploitation of nature, intensifying the degradation of the soil, expanding the rift; and (3) the nutrients transferred to the city accumulate as waste and become a pollution problem.41
What daily weather data depart from the climatic means?
the climate is considered to be stable if the long-term average does not signifi cantly change
How  climate change can be defined?
as a trend in one or more climatic variables characterized by a fairly smooth continuous increase or decrease of the average value during the period of record
What is most considerated in this study?
both climate change and climate variability are considered and therefore it is important to understand the distinction between the two
in this paper, both climate change and climate variability are considered and therefore it is important to understand the distinction between the two. climate variability can be thought of as the way climatic variables (such as temperature and precipitation) depart from some average state, either above or below the average value. although daily weather data depart from the climatic mean, the climate is considered to be stable if the long-term average does not signifi cantly change. on the other hand, climate change can be defi ned as a trend in one or more climatic variables characterized by a fairly smooth continuous increase or decrease of the average value during the period of record.(7)
what does the case study evidences suggests?
the case study evidence suggests that poorer farmers are more directly dependent on climatic conditions, as they have less opportunity to access other resources that reduce its impact -- such as, fertilizer, transport and other business opportunities. on the other hand, poorer farmers have reduced their vulnerability and have increased their resilience to climate variability by diversifying their strategies and the crops they plant
state some example?
for example, some poorer farmers plant nitrogen-fixing crops together with other crops, while better-off farmers are more likely to buy inorganic fertilizer when they can afford to
which country is mentioned here specifically?
in mangondi, better-off farmers appear vulnerable to the direct impact of climate variability on their crops, as they tend to plant a single crop, which can render no returns at all in unfavourable climate conditions. however, in good
in terms of vulnerability, the case study evidence suggests that poorer farmers are more directly dependent on climatic conditions, as they have less opportunity to access other resources that reduce its impact -- such as, fertilizer, transport and other business opportunities. on the other hand, poorer farmers have reduced their vulnerability and have increased their resilience to climate variability by diversifying their strategies and the crops they plant. for example, some poorer farmers plant nitrogen-fixing crops together with other crops, while better-off farmers are more likely to buy inorganic fertilizer when they can afford to. in mangondi, better-off farmers appear vulnerable to the direct impact of climate variability on their crops, as they tend to plant a single crop, which can render no returns at all in unfavourable climate conditions. however, in good
How is potential future crop production is projected?
potential future crop production is projected using well-developed crop models considering multiple climate impacts (temperature and precipitation changes, co2 fertilization, flood changes, sea level rise
How much decline in boro production is projected by the 2030s?
however, most gcm projections estimate a potential decline in boro production with a median loss of 3 per cent by the 2030s and 5 per cent by the 2050s
What is the production of boro and wheat in the southern sub-regions most vulnerable to?
the production in the southern sub-regions is most vulnerable to climate change
potential future crop production is projected using well-developed crop models considering multiple climate impacts (temperature and precipitation changes, co2 fertilization, flood changes, sea level rise). for aus (-1.5 per cent) and aman (-0.6 per cent) the range of model experiments for the 2050s covers both potential gains and losses and does not statistically separate from zero. however, most gcm projections estimate a potential decline in boro production with a median loss of 3 per cent by the 2030s and 5 per cent by the 2050s. wheat production is projected to increase out to the 2050s (+3 per cent). boro and wheat changes are conservative as it is assumed that farmers have unconstrained access to irrigation. in each sub-region, production losses are estimated for at least one crop. the production in the southern sub-regions is most vulnerable to climate change. for instance, average losses in the khulna region are -10 per cent for aus, aman and wheat, and -18 per cent for boro by the 2050s due in large part to rising sea levels. these production impacts ignore economic responses to these shocks (e.g. land and labour reallocation, price effects). these economic effects will to some degree buffer against the physical losses predicted.
What is the result of a decrease in annual runoff?
decreases in annual runoff will mean less surface water for human use, which will prompt the construction of new reservoirs to increase water supplies (v"or"osmarty et al. 2004
What is the main function of reservoirs ?
in areas with adequate supplies of surface water, reservoirs may be built for flood control
Why would canals or acquaducts need to be built?
there will be increased pressure to transport water from areas where it is abundant to areas where it is scarce. this will necessitate building canals and aqueducts that will move not only water but also aquatic organisms over long distances and across watershed divides. as a result, water development will influence the pathways of species introductions, enhance the likelihood of establishment of non-native species, modify impacts of existing non-native species, and require initiation or alteration of control
decreases in annual runoff will mean less surface water for human use, which will prompt the construction of new reservoirs to increase water supplies (v"or"osmarty et al. 2004). in areas with adequate supplies of surface water, reservoirs may be built for flood control. in addition, there will be increased pressure to transport water from areas where it is abundant to areas where it is scarce. this will necessitate building canals and aqueducts that will move not only water but also aquatic organisms over long distances and across watershed divides. as a result, water development will influence the pathways of species introductions, enhance the likelihood of establishment of non-native species, modify impacts of existing non-native species, and require initiation or alteration of control
Which country seriously started the activity related to adaptation to climate change? Netherlands
only a few countries (such as netherlands) have seriously initiated any activities related to adaptation to climate change
With regard to climate change, what is the difficulty that most countries and subnational governments encounter? Political, financial and operational difficulties
most countries and subnational governments might have political, fi nancial, and operational diffi culties establishing eff ective institutions to deal with climate change
What is done to help poor people living in rural areas to adapt to climate change? Effort is made and strategies
although eff orts put into developing strategies to assist poor people living in rural areas to adapting to climate change are crucial and necessary
only a few countries (such as netherlands) have seriously initiated any activities related to adaptation to climate change. most countries and subnational governments might have political, fi nancial, and operational diffi culties establishing eff ective institutions to deal with climate change. the vulnerability of human settlements, especially of poor people, has not been properly articulated in adaptation strategies, partly because of the way in which climate change has been framed, nationally and internationally, with a bias towards mitigation and with adaptation analyses limited to rural areas and agricultural systems. although eff orts put into developing strategies to assist poor people living in rural areas to adapting to climate change are crucial and necessary, more eff ort is needed to deepen the understanding of equivalent strategies adopted by poor people in the urban context. there has been some focus on climate resilience in urban planning. the unfccc local coping strategies database allows users to search for examples of successful local coping strategies by type of hazards and eff ects, but features almost no information about documented local strategies within the urban context.100
What year was the 'Climate Impact Adaptation Assessment 96' published?
published in 1998 under the title climate impact and adaptation assessment96
Do Kates et al. address the development of climate predictions?
kates et al. do not explicitly address the development of climate predictions or scenarios
Who published the Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations?
the technical guidelines for assessing climate change impacts and adaptations published a few years earlier by the ipcc in 1994
the scope 27 volume therefore reveals, i suggest, how the idea of an explicit knowledge hierarchy, the lack of any theoretical frameworks for integrated analysis and the preferred linear model of climate-response contributed to a climate reductionism at work in impact assessments. at this crucial moment in the 1980s, when climate predictions were asserting their knowledge claims about the future and when policy was demanding knowledge about future consequences of climate change for society, it was easy for simple reductionist accounts of future climate change impacts to emerge. kates et al. do not explicitly address the development of climate predictions or scenarios which have become the pivotal component of so many climate impact studies. the second book i wish to examine, however, does so. published in 1998 under the title climate impact and adaptation assessment96, this was a widely-read guide to the ipcc approach for assessing climate change impacts and adaptations. this book offered "a readable guide" to the technical guidelines for assessing climate change impacts and adaptations published a few years earlier by the ipcc in 199497
What usually ignore the processes by which species ranges shift?
forecasts of species endangerment under climate change usually ignore the processes by which species ranges shift
What can prevent range shifts by causing gaps in climate paths, even in the absence of geographic barriers?
inter-decadal variability in climate change can prevent range shifts by causing gaps in climate paths, even in the absence of geographic barriers
What may conservationists need to consider?
conservationists may need to consider managed relocation and augmentation of in situ populations
forecasts of species endangerment under climate change usually ignore the processes by which species ranges shift. by analysing the  climate paths  that range shifts might follow, and two key range-shift processes - dispersal and population persistence - we show that short-term climatic and population characteristics have dramatic effects on range-shift forecasts. by employing this approach with 15 amphibian species in the western usa, we make unexpected predictions. first, inter-decadal variability in climate change can prevent range shifts by causing gaps in climate paths, even in the absence of geographic barriers. second, the hitherto unappreciated trait of persistence during unfavourable climatic conditions is critical to species range shifts. third, climatic fluctuations and low persistence could lead to endangerment even if the future potential range size is large. these considerations may render habitat corridors ineffectual for some species, and conservationists may need to consider managed relocation and augmentation of in situ populations. keywords anura, assisted migration, climate variability, dispersal, fundamental and realised niche, landscape ecology, population persistence, salamander, translocation.
where is the high island located?
fiji
Where is the low island located?
kiribati
What does OAS stand for?
organization of american states
the world bank's 2000 pacific regional economic report devotes a full chapter to climate change adaptation. it is based upon detailed economic analyses of potential climate change impacts and adaptation options in two islands (one high island in fiji, and a low lying atoll in kiribati). its key findings were that climate change is already affecting the pacific islands, and that vulnerability to its impacts is on the rise, imposing major social and economic costs on these countries. the report concluded that immediate action on adaptation is required to minimize these impacts, by adopting a range of "no-regrets" adaptation options, developing a broad consultative process for implementation of adaptation, requiring adaptation screening of major development projects, and strengthening the socio-economic analysis of adaptation options. since the 2000 regional economic report, the pacific region has initiated a number of follow-up activities. at the regional level, the world bank has sponsored two high-level adaptation consultations of ministers and permanent secretaries of finance to discuss (i) the economic implications of climate change, climate variability and sea level rise; (ii) common strategies to adddress these challenges, and (iii) mainstreaming of climate risk management in national planning (see the nadi communique, pacific islands forum secretariat 2002). another key activity is a pilot adaptation project in kiribati. the current preparation phase aims to mainstream adaptation into economic planning, and will result in a set of clear national adaptation priorities, defined in a process of national consultation with local communities. those priorities will be the basis for the investment phase, which could take the form of a top-up of public expenditure, based upon the achievement of certain "adaptation benchmarks" (see world bank 2003, van aalst and bettencourt 2004). some of the key messages from the pacific are (i) there is high-level interest in climate adaptation, (ii) to be most effective, adaptation must be integrated in national economic planning (iii) climate change risk management must be based upon "no-regrets" solutions, which deal with both current and future risks at once. in the caribbean region, the bank has been the implementing agency for caribbean planning for adaptation to climate change (cpacc) a regional project financed by the gef and executed by the organization of american states (oas) (world bank 1997). this project had several components aimed at vulnerability assessment, adaptation planning, and capacity building. cpacc is currently being succeeded by a follow-up gef project, mainstreaming adaptation to climate change (macc), which will (i) assist in mainstreaming climate change considerations into their development planning and sectoral investment projects; (ii) identify and develop appropriate technical and institutional response mechanisms for adaptation to global climate change; and (iii) support and promote regional climate change monitoring and modeling.
what did the study measure?
this study measured american public support for a variety of policy proposals to mitigate global warming at the national and international levels
what percentage of American citizens thought the US should reduce its greenhouse gas emissions?
90% thought the united states should reduce its greenhouse gas emissions
what percentage supported the kyoto protocol?
88% supported the kyoto protocol
despitethesemoderateriskperceptions,however,doestheamericanpublicsupport public policies to mitigate climate change? this study measured american public support for a variety of policy proposals to mitigate global warming at the national and international levels (figure 3). it found that of those americans who had heard of global warming (92%): * 90% thought the united states should reduce its greenhouse gas emissions. * 88% supported the kyoto protocol and 76% wanted the united states to reduce greenhouse gas emissions regardless of what other countries do. * 79% supported an increase in vehicle fuel economy standards (cafe). * 77% supported government regulation of carbon dioxide as a pollutant and a shift in subsidies from the fossil fuel industry to the renewable energy industry (71%). * while a majority favored a tax on "gas guzzlers" (54%), large majorities opposed a gasoline tax (78%) or a business energy tax (60%) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. 56 anthony leiserowitz
What leads to increased upwelling?
a shift of the dominant wind direction leads to increased upwelling
What is less affected by the atmospheric warming trend?
the water below the thermocline is less affected by the atmospheric warming trend
What can be detected for those parts of Scandinavia that are exposed to westerlies, the Kola peninsula and southeast from the Gulf of Finland?
increasing cloud cover can be detected for those parts of scandinavia that are exposed to westerlies, the kola peninsula and southeast from the gulf of finland
either the water below the thermocline is less affected by the atmospheric warming trend (hinrichsen et al. 2007), which leads to a smaller warming trend at the sea surface, or a shift of the dominant wind direction leads to increased upwelling. in line with the warming trend, there is a trend to less cloud cover over the baltic sea basin including finland (on average -1% decade-1; fig. 11), with seasonal contributions mainly during spring and autumn. increasing cloud cover can be detected for those parts of scandinavia that are exposed to westerlies, the kola peninsula and southeast from the gulf of finland, which is mostly due to seasonal contributions during winter and summer. the trend in annual precipitation for the period 1979 to 2008 is less rain in the central and northern areas (2 to 4 mm yr-1) of the baltic sea
The rate of environmental change?
the rate of environmental change will strongly affect the capacity of marine populations to persist for sufficiently long to adapt to climate change (chevin lande 2010; bell 2013
Fishing Definition:
fishing is one of the most obvious ways in which humans reduce marine population sizes. fishing can also impose strong selection on marine populations (conover munch 2002), which may reduce the capacity for adaptation to climate change if selection on traits from fishing is not in the same direction as selection for climate change (fig. 4). alternatively, climate change might accelerate evolution of populations in less desirable directions for fisheries (e.g. smaller body size, cheung et al. 2013) if selection associated with climate change and fishing are positively correlated. obviously, fishing is not the only anthropogenic factor that reduces population sizes: pollution and habitat destruction will also reduce the size of populations and, potentially, their capacity to evolve. measures that limit the impact of these activities may carry the dual benefit of maintaining healthy populations in the current day and increasing the likelihood of maintaining viable populations in the future. a major goal of management strategies is to conserve marine biodiversity. to determine the efficacy of these strategies into the future, it will be necessary to consider not only the ecological effects of climate change on populations but also to incorporate evolutionary potential and the demographic effects of selection into climate change assessments
Death and evolution of fishing:
similar approaches may be especially useful in modelling the sustainability of fisheries under different climate change scenarios because the interacting effects of fishing mortality and evolutionary potential could be investigated in such models
the rate of environmental change will strongly affect the capacity of marine populations to persist for sufficiently long to adapt to climate change (chevin lande 2010; bell 2013). thus, most importantly, taking global actions that slow the rate of climate change will diminish its impacts and maximise the potential for marine systems to adapt. there are, however, some local actions that may increase the likelihood that marine systems can adapt to climate change. for example, larger populations are more likely to evolve and persist in the face of climate change for two reasons: first, because they have greater standing genetic variation (frankham 1996), and second, because larger populations are less susceptible to drift that could prevent the spread of advantageous alleles through the population (lynch 2010). consequently, any management interventions that help maintain large populations will probably be beneficial in maintaining evolutionary potential. fishing is one of the most obvious ways in which humans reduce marine population sizes. fishing can also impose strong selection on marine populations (conover munch 2002), which may reduce the capacity for adaptation to climate change if selection on traits from fishing is not in the same direction as selection for climate change (fig. 4). alternatively, climate change might accelerate evolution of populations in less desirable directions for fisheries (e.g. smaller body size, cheung et al. 2013) if selection associated with climate change and fishing are positively correlated. obviously, fishing is not the only anthropogenic factor that reduces population sizes: pollution and habitat destruction will also reduce the size of populations and, potentially, their capacity to evolve. measures that limit the impact of these activities may carry the dual benefit of maintaining healthy populations in the current day and increasing the likelihood of maintaining viable populations in the future. a major goal of management strategies is to conserve marine biodiversity. to determine the efficacy of these strategies into the future, it will be necessary to consider not only the ecological effects of climate change on populations but also to incorporate evolutionary potential and the demographic effects of selection into climate change assessments. although not yet fully applied to marine populations, evolutionary rescue models have been used to assess demographically sustainable rates of adaptation in plants (kuparinen et al. 2010) and birds (gienapp et al. 2013). similar approaches may be especially useful in modelling the sustainability of fisheries under different climate change scenarios because the interacting effects of fishing mortality and evolutionary potential could be investigated in such models.
Who is Sir Nicholas Stern?
sir nicholas stern is a professional economist of high standing and a distinguished public servant
What has put economics to a severe test ?
the issue of global climate change and what to do about
What Nicholas Stern review contains?
contains much of value and interest aside from its cost-bene...t analysis of mitigation policies, although that is naturally the part which most grabs the attention of economists
the issue of global climate change and what to do about it has put economics to a severe test in which economists have been challenged to think afresh about how to model (or at least how to conceptualize) such fundamental notions as risk, uncertainty, and discounting. there is nothing like being asked for a speci...c policy recommendation on a vivid actuality to breathe new life into otherwise arcane matters of economic analysis. beyond the issue of whether it is right or wrong in its conclusions, the stern review on the economics of climate change is an opportunity for economists to take stock of what we know about this subject, how we know it, what we don't know, and why we don't know it. the stern review is a full-++edged economic analysis of climate change that was oc/cially commissioned by the british government and for reasons both economic and political is an unusual - and unusually important - document. sir nicholas stern is a professional economist of high standing and a distinguished public servant. weighing in at close to 700 pages, the stern review is comprehensive in its scope and ambitious in its aims, with an attractive multi-colored visual design that makes topics like cost-bene...t analysis of dynamic externalities look almost glamorous. anyone wanting to get a good feel for the basic issues of global climate change could pro...tably browse through this report, which covers well its multiple facets in a reader-friendly format. the review contains much of value and interest aside from its cost-bene...t analysis of mitigation policies, although that is naturally the part which most grabs the attention of economists. a detailed review of the review is out of place here - it would be too long, and besides the stern review reads well and is available on
Which method did most farmers use in response to climate change in the study that was conducted during the 2004/05 production year in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia?
use of different crop varieties was the most common response, whereas use of irrigation was the least cited among the five adaptation methods
What were the four primary reasons put forward by farmers for choosing not to adapt to negative climate changes?
farmers reported that the primary reasons for choosing not to adapt were lack of information on climate change impacts and adaptation options, lack of financial resources, labor constraints, and land shortages
Name one reason why farmers are forced to intensively farm small plots of land in the Nile Basin in Ethiopia?
moreover, high population pressures force farmers to intensively farm small plots of land, making it difficult to adopt adaptation practices, such as planting trees, which require more land
the study uses a cross-sectional household survey of farmers conducted during the 2004/05 production year in the nile basin of ethiopia. the survey asked farmers how they respond to the negative impacts of climate change. use of different crop varieties was the most common response, whereas use of irrigation was the least cited among the five adaptation methods identified. about 42 percent of those surveyed reported that they did not employ any adaptation methods (figure 1). farmers reported that the primary reasons for choosing not to adapt were lack of information on climate change impacts and adaptation options, lack of financial resources, labor constraints, and land shortages. adaptation to climate change is both costly and labor intensive. lack of financial resources keeps farmers from acquiring the necessary technologies to allow them to adapt. for instance, while the nile basin in ethiopia is rich in water resources, farmers generally cannot afford to invest in irrigation technology that would allow them to adapt to climate change or sustain their livelihoods during climatic extremes, such as drought. additionally, farmers are often unable to mobilize sufficient family labor or afford hired labor to make the necessary changes. moreover, high population pressures force farmers to intensively farm small plots of land, making it difficult to adopt adaptation practices, such as planting trees, which require more land.
Where was Reto Knutti born?
reto knutti was born in saanen, switzerland
Reto Knutti is a member of what international organisation?
reto knutti is a member of the international detection and attribution group
What are Bayesian methods used to estimate?
he uses bayesian methods to estimate the probability density functions of future global and regional climate change, based on small sets of comprehensive models, very large ensembles of simpler models and statistical emulators such as neural networks
reto knutti reto knutti was born in saanen, switzerland, and studied physics at the university of bern. fascinated by weather and climate, numerical simulations and highperformance computing, he specialized in the field of climate modelling, in which he earned his phd from the university of bern in 2002. subsequently, he worked as a postdoctoral researcher and visiting scientist at the national center for atmospheric research in boulder, colorado, usa, where he still has an affiliation. since 2007, reto knutti has been assistant professor in climate physics at the institute for atmospheric and climate science at eth zurich, switzerland. reto knutti's research focuses on changes in the global climate system caused by the growing emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide. he uses numerical models of different complexity, from simple energy balance to threedimensional coupled climate models that resolve the atmosphere, ocean, land, sea ice and their interactions. in particular, he develops methods to constrain important feedback processes in the climate system by comparing observations with model results. he uses bayesian methods to estimate the probability density functions of future global and regional climate change, based on small sets of comprehensive models, very large ensembles of simpler models and statistical emulators such as neural networks. numerous publications resulting from his work have contributed substantially to a better understanding of the uncertainties in climate projections. reto knutti is a member of the international detection and attribution group and lead author in the latest fourth assessment report of the ipcc. with their advisory activities and their reports, these institutions provide the scientific basis for international agreements on preventing and mitigating climate change.
What did students consent to participate in Study 1?
in study 1, management students consented to participate in an ''organizational behavior and leadership'' project and were provided a web address in order to register
What did the first session of the survey contain?
the first session of the survey contained the predictor study variables of climate and psycap and, after taking this initial survey, participants waited about a week before they were able to go back to the site, log in, and complete session two of the survey which included the satisfaction, commitment, and performance study variables
What should be noted?
it should be noted that the survey questions were not altered for the student sample in order to keep the data collection as consistent as possible across samples
in study 1, management students consented to participate in an ''organizational behavior and leadership'' project and were provided a web address in order to register. they were then electronically sent a unique password via e-mail that enabled them to log onto the site and take the questionnaire survey at two points in time. as podsakoff and colleagues (2003, p. 887) have suggested, this ''makes it impossible for the mindset of the source or rater to bias the observed relationship between the predictor and criterion variables, thus eliminating the effects of consistency motifs, implicit theories, and social desirability tendencies.'' the first session of the survey contained the predictor study variables of climate and psycap and, after taking this initial survey, participants waited about a week before they were able to go back to the site, log in, and complete session two of the survey which included the satisfaction, commitment, and performance study variables. it should be noted that the survey questions were not altered for the student sample in order to keep the data collection as consistent as possible across samples. however, as indicated in the discussion of the study 1 performance measure above, the instruction to the student participants was to frame the questions in terms of their current (or most recent) job or in a relevant class project or assignment so that they were answering in a work-related context. the on-line method was also used in study 2 to gather survey data on the predictor variables from employees in the insurance service firm. again following podsakoff and colleagues' (2003) recommendations, the actual performance measure of the participants in this sample was gathered from
Is the fish species diversity likely to decrease or increase?
overall, fish species diversity is likely to increase, but this probably would be at the expense of cold-water species such as s
What is European fauna marked by?
on the contrary, european fauna is marked by the abundance of generalist species, often capable of extensive movement within the hydrographic network
Is the upstream-downstream gradient major or minor major determinant of local structure of fish assemblages?
it also allowed us to consider the upstream-downstream gradient, which is a major determinant of local structure of fish assemblages
to our knowledge, this study is one of the first ones to assess the potential impacts of climate change on stream fish species and assemblages for a large number of species including not only recreational or commercial fish, on the european continent. compared with bioclimatic envelope models applied to many other taxa at a large scale, the inclusion of additional nonclimatic factors into our species distribution models allowed us to project the future distributions more precisely. it also allowed us to consider the upstream-downstream gradient, which is a major determinant of local structure of fish assemblages. our results suggest that stream fish species and assemblage structure would be affected by climate change even for moderate scenarios. overall, fish species diversity is likely to increase, but this probably would be at the expense of cold-water species such as s. trutta fario this may be due to two factors that are characteristic of french watersheds in aquatic environments. first, fish species diversity is dominated by cooland warm-water species which would be favoured by the increase in temperature. secondly, french hydrographic networks are mainly constituted of small, cold-water streams that would become warmer and thus suitable for most species. it would also be interesting to generate comparative studies with other systems. in particular, stream fish species from north america are characterized by many specialized and highly sedentary species. on the contrary, european fauna is marked by the abundance of generalist species, often capable of extensive movement within the hydrographic network (belliard et al ., 1997). such differences may affect the responses of stream fish species to climate change, and inter-continental comparisons would probably reveal different patterns of future fish assemblage modifications. taking into account ecological characteristics of species should be helpful to identify similar responses across contrasted assemblages (thuiller et al ., 2004, 2006b) and should thus enhance our understanding of potential impacts of climate change on stream fish assemblages.
What are the two fundamental response options to the risks posed by anthropogenic climate change? They are the mitigation of climate change and adaptation to climate change.
the two fundamental response options to the risks posed by anthropogenic climate change are mitigation of climate change and adaptation to climate change
What does Mitigation refer to? Refers to limit global climate changes by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and increasing their sinks
mitigation refers to limiting global climate change through reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases (ghgs) and enhancing their sinks
What is the main purpose of adaptation? Moderate the adverse effects of climate change
adaptation primarily aims at moderating the adverse effects of unavoided climate change through a wide range of actions that are targeted at the vulnerable system
the two fundamental response options to the risks posed by anthropogenic climate change are mitigation of climate change and adaptation to climate change. mitigation refers to limiting global climate change through reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases (ghgs) and enhancing their sinks. adaptation primarily aims at moderating the adverse effects of unavoided climate change through a wide range of actions that are targeted at the vulnerable system. (it may also include taking action to seize new opportunities brought about by climate change.) table i summarizes the key differences between mitigation and adaptation policy. owing to the major differences in the typical temporal and spatial scales
For freshwater fisheries, what are the main direct impacts expected to result from climate change?
changes in water temperature, species distributions and habitat quality
What are the 3 types of guilds that fish are commonly divided into?
cold, cool and warm water
What conclusion do both laboratory and field research support?
that warm-water fish, such as sturgeon and bass, generally benefit from increased water temperatures, whereas cold-water fish like trout and salmon tend to suffer
for freshwater fisheries, changes in water temperature, species distributions and habitat quality are the main direct impacts expected to result from climate change. as is the case with marine fisheries, it is important to recognize that the effects of nonclimatic ecosystem stresses will continue to impact fisheries, making it important to understand how climate change will interact with these stressors. for freshwater fisheries, these stressors include land-use change, water withdrawals(64)and the of non-native species.(65)inland fisheries will also face additional challenges stemming from increased competition for water between sectors, as supply-demand mismatches become more common due to climate change see 'water resources' chapter). higher temperatures will affect different freshwater fish species in different ways. the magnitude of potential temperature changes in freshwater sites is significantly greater than that for marine environments. fish are commonly divided into three guilds (cold, cool and warm water), based on the optimal thermal habitats around which their thermal niche is centred. a fourth guild, for arctic fish that prefer even lower temperatures, has also been suggested.(13)both laboratory and field research support the conclusion that warm-water fish, such as sturgeon and bass, generally benefit from increased water temperatures, whereas cold-water fish like trout and salmon tend to suffer (e.g., reference 13). for instance, a 2degc increase in water temperature was found to reduce the growth rate,(66)survival(67)
Where people are dying due to hunger and lack of water?
south africa
in 1898 what state was joined in the USA?
hawaii
What area has more than 700 different  islands, islets, reefs and caves?
the caribbean
artocarpus communis, a. altilis breadfruit pacific islands, southeast asia fiji, kiribati, line islands arundo donax giant reed eurasia australia, the caribbean, hawaii, mexico, new zealand, south africa, southern europe, thailand, united states azadirachta indica neem bangladesh, india, myanmar, sri lanka, australia, fiji, mauritius, west africa brassica napus rapeseed, canola eurasia australia, ecuador, fiji, hawaii, new caledonia camelina sativa false flax eastern europe and southwest asia australia, central america, japan, north america, south america, western europe elaeis guineensis african oil palm madagascar, west africa brazil, florida, federated states of micronesia gleditsia triacanthos honey locust eastern north america australia, central argentina, new zealand, south africa, united states jatropha curcas jatropha, physic nut tropical america australia, pacific islands, puerto rico, south africa, united states maclura pomifera osage orange central united states australia, europe, south africa, united states morus alba mulberry asia brazil, ecuador, united states olea europaea olive tree mediterranean europe australia, hawaii, new zealand phalaris arundinacea reed canary grass asia, europe, north america australia, chile, new zealand, south africa, united states, most temperate countries continued 43 prosopis spp. mesquite north america australia, eastern africa (djibouti, eritrea, ethiopia, sudan), southern africa, india ricinus communis castor bean east africa australia, brazil, mexico, new zealand, pacific islands, south africa, united states, western europe sorghum halepense johnson grass mediterranean to india australia, central and south america, indonesia, pacific islands, thailand, united states ziziphus mauritiana chinese apple, jujube china, india africa, afghanistan, australia, china, malaysia, some pacific archipelagoes, and caribbean region
What is required to experiment locally?
genuine capacity to adapt policies
What is needed to encourage experimentation?
bureaucratic norms need to change to encourage experimentation and to accept occasional failure, in pursuit of desired goals
all of these approaches are useful and needed. but another important change is in order--and it is a tall order: the standard operating procedures in government forest bureaucracies will need to change genuine, meaningful attention to local human and ecological variation will require two difficult but key changes. first, the knowledge and potential contribution of rural dwellers will have to be more widely recognised and allowed to influence official decision making. this means changing officials' attitudes and strengthening feedback mechanisms within bureaucracies. second, greater flexibility and 'freedom to fail' will be needed, particularly for field personnel. genuine capacity to adapt policies as needed requires the ability to experiment locally; and the greatest learning often comes from failures. bureaucratic norms need to change to encourage experimentation and to accept occasional failure, in pursuit of desired goals.
What is the general consensus to increase electrical efficiency about?
there is a widespread consensus that there is considerable scope to increase energy efficiency, and the impact of rising prices is likely to have a considerable incentive effect (though with a lag). nevertheless, past expectations of policy impacts have rarely been met, and there are various reasons for expecting the costs and barriers to energy efficiency to be considerable
What have been the results of the latest studies?
there have been numerous studies purporting to demonstrate that there are many npv-positive projects available to individuals and business--that, in effect, much energy efficiency is free, independent of the climate-change policy objectives
What the CCS concept is about?
the delivery of ccs is rather a coordination and investment project in what will be a new utility infrastructure industry. for europe, with partially depleted oil and gas fields in the shallow north sea, the prospect of an extensive ccs network is a plausible option.32
there is a widespread consensus that there is considerable scope to increase energy efficiency, and the impact of rising prices is likely to have a considerable incentive effect (though with a lag). nevertheless, past expectations of policy impacts have rarely been met, and there are various reasons for expecting the costs and barriers to energy efficiency to be considerable. there have been numerous studies purporting to demonstrate that there are many npv-positive projects available to individuals and business--that, in effect, much energy efficiency is free, independent of the climate-change policy objectives. why then has take-up been so poor? the answer lies partly in the capital stock (notably buildings and houses), and the indirect costs of such investments. while some lobbyists and politicians conclude that the lack of take-up displays ignorance and even irrationality, the economists' preferred explanation lies in questioning whether the costs have, in fact, been underestimated. the medium-term policy options (largely ignored in the eu climate-change package) look altogether more promising. large-scale supply-side low-carbon technologies are moving from research to development and, indeed, even to deployment in demonstration plants or actual investments. the first candidate in this category is nuclear power. as france has demonstrated, it is possible to have a large nuclear programme without undermining economic performance--with some 59 pressurized-water reactors (pwrs), producing some 80 per cent of its electricity generation. were europe--and the usa, china, and india--to follow the french path, significant reductions in carbon emissions could be achieved from around 2020. but such a large-scale programme would raise many problems: the manufacturing capacity is not yet available, there are significant waste issues, and global nuclear-safety regulation is weak. there are also significant risks of the inevitable military nuclear proliferation which would follow. a second option is ccs--a recognition that the coal is going to be burnt, and that policy should focus on making fossil fuels carbon-neutral, rather than exclusively focus on noncarbon technologies. the concept of ccs is relatively straightforward, and the technology itself arguably proven. how to separate out carbon as coal burns is well known, as is its pipeline transmission. injecting gases into rock formation is also widely understood--and, indeed, demonstrated in a number of cases already. the delivery of ccs is rather a coordination and investment project in what will be a new utility infrastructure industry. for europe, with partially depleted oil and gas fields in the shallow north sea, the prospect of an extensive ccs network is a plausible option.32
The recency of this research activity is explained primarily by what?
the recency of this research activity is explained primarily by methodological advances that, combined with increasing access to computing power and climate data, catalyzed progress
What is the goal of this review?
the goal of this review is to collect and synthesize these advances
This review focuses on what?
this review focuses on methodology
how does the climate affect society and the economy? this question has challenged thinkers for centuries, and the answer promises insight into why economies developed differently historically, how modern society can best respond to current climatic events, and how future climate changes may impact humanity. in recent years, numerous econometric analyses have emerged to address this question by studying the effects of specific climatic conditions on different social and economic outcomes. the recency of this research activity is explained primarily by methodological advances that, combined with increasing access to computing power and climate data, catalyzed progress. the goal of this review is to collect and synthesize these advances. in particular, i highlight core innovations and explain linkages between different methods. i also attempt to tackle an issue that has proved particularly thorny: the debate as to whether regressions on "weather" variables provide meaningful insight into the effects of climate. by formalizing this question, i can derive conditions under which the use of weather variables in regressions is justified and, perhaps surprisingly, dominates traditionally preferred methods. in the latter portion of this review, i discuss how these new econometric results are being used to understand other scientific or policy questions, such as the optimal design of climate change policy. throughout, i draw attention to methodological challenges that remain unsolved. this review focuses on methodology, so i will not describe data or results that are not examples of methodological innovations. i encourage readers to consult auffhammer et al. (2013) for a discussion of climate data in general and other review articles surveying findings from this rapidly growing field; for example, those regarding health impacts (desch^enes 2014), agricultural impacts (auffhammer schlenker 2014), energy impacts (auffhammer mansur 2014), conflict impacts (burke et al. 2015b), climatic disaster impacts broadly speaking (kousky 2014) and tropical cyclones specifically (camargo hsiang 2016), labor impacts (heal park 2015), and a general summary of findings from across the literature (carleton hsiang 2016, dell et al. 2014).
Why is defining technical adaptation measures for forest not straightforward?
because adaptation measures depend on a variety of contextual factors
What are examples of a variety of contextual factors?
forest types, management goals, climatic threats, and non-climatic pressures
As tropical forests are vulnerable to climate change, current management or conservation practices should integrate climate change threats and aim at what?.
reducing vulnerabilities
the need for flexible and diversified approaches as tropical forests are vulnerable to climate change, current management or conservation practices should integrate climate change threats and aim at reducing vulnerabilities. defining technical adaptation measures for forest is not straightforward, because adaptation measures depend on a variety of contextual factors (e.g., forest types, management goals, climatic threats, and non-climatic pressures). in addition, even though modelling has been used to study the vulnerability of tropical forests to climate change, the uncertainties inherent to ecosystem models and climate scenarios may hinder their use by forest managers or policy makers (millar et al. 2007). for instance, future trends in precipitation are still unclear at local and regional scales, especially for the tropics. in many situations, models that cannot help determine future impacts will help envision possible directions of change. in terms of forest vulnerabilities, the main gap in our knowledge relates to the
The ability of societies to adapt if dependent on what?
the ability of societies to adapt is determined, in part, by its ability to act collectively. in managing territory and resources, indigenous peoples use social mechanisms and customary governance structures to ensure equitable access to resources, and thus build the social fabric of resilience in the face of environmental change. these mechanisms and structures may include customary law and rituals. mrdc and dekdeken report that in the philippines, the
What is one way indigenous people stay connected to their resources that come from outside communities?
in managing territory and resources, indigenous peoples use social mechanisms and customary governance structures to ensure equitable access to resources, and thus build the social fabric of resilience in the face of environmental change. these mechanisms and structures may include customary law and rituals. mrdc and dekdeken report that in the philippines, the pidlisan use a combination of institutions and rules, some formal (e.g. ritual, governance and structure) and some informal (e.g. social prestige), to reduce competition and ensure that rice terraces receive a fair share of the limited water resource. community unity is cited as a critical factor to ensuring that these rules remain enforced (see box 3.4). puri (2007) describes the importance of social collaboration in responding to uncertainties in food and water supply
What does IPMPCC stand for?
minnie degawan, co-chair, indigenous peoples, marginalized populations and climate change expert meeting (ipmpcc, 2011) as described by adger and brown (2009), adaptation is a dynamic social process. the ability of societies to adapt is determined, in part, by its ability to act collectively. in managing territory and resources, indigenous peoples use social mechanism
it is difficult to separate discussions related to our indigenous belief systems from the environment. so it is doubly difficult to enter these discussions and look at one aspect of our whole life as if it were separate from the rest. to us, everything is connected and often it makes us frustrated to separate things as if these were boxes. minnie degawan, co-chair, indigenous peoples, marginalized populations and climate change expert meeting (ipmpcc, 2011) as described by adger and brown (2009), adaptation is a dynamic social process. the ability of societies to adapt is determined, in part, by its ability to act collectively. in managing territory and resources, indigenous peoples use social mechanisms and customary governance structures to ensure equitable access to resources, and thus build the social fabric of resilience in the face of environmental change. these mechanisms and structures may include customary law and rituals. mrdc and dekdeken report that in the philippines, the pidlisan use a combination of institutions and rules, some formal (e.g. ritual, governance and structure) and some informal (e.g. social prestige), to reduce competition and ensure that rice terraces receive a fair share of the limited water resource. community unity is cited as a critical factor to ensuring that these rules remain enforced (see box 3.4). puri (2007) describes the importance of social collaboration in responding to uncertainties in food and water supply. he describes how foraging peoples, including the san of the kalahari desert in southern africa, rely on preestablished social networks maintained through reciprocal gift-giving in order to move beyond the area affected by localized climate disturbance. the walkabouts and corroborees of aboriginal australians and potlatch ceremonies in the pacific northwest ensure in a similar fashion the maintenance of a social safety net (puri, 2007). galvin (2009) describes the distribution of a masai herd across a social network as a way of: coping with subdivision of land by reaggregating their lands with friends and family. however... some relations in the region are becoming strained as some masai who live on individual parcels move their herds onto group ranch land during the wet season only to retreat to their fenced pastures during the dry season.
Define Urbanisation necessitates expansion?
urbanisation necessitates expansion of the cities' boundaries, as well as densification of the urban tissue
What is the results in the construction of tall building structures
the latter often results in the construction of tall building structures along p. moonen et al. 198 relatively narrow streets
What are the consequence of the altered heat balance?
as a consequence of the altered heat balance, the air temperatures in densely built urban areas are generally higher than in the surrounding rural hinterland, a phenomenon known as the ''urban heat island
urbanisation necessitates expansion of the cities' boundaries, as well as densification of the urban tissue. the latter often results in the construction of tall building structures along p. moonen et al. 198 relatively narrow streets. as a consequence of the altered heat balance, the air temperatures in densely built urban areas are generally higher than in the surrounding rural hinterland, a phenomenon known as the ''urban heat island''. the heat island is the most obvious climatic manifestation of urbanisation landsberg, 1981 ). possible causes for the urban heat island were suggested by oke (1982) and their relative importance was determined in numerous follow-up studies:
How did we go about DNA extraction?
we sampled newly unfolding leaves or leaf buds from each tree and dried these immediately in fine-grain silica gel
What d.p.i was used to scan the prepared samples?
prepared samples were then scanned at 1600 d.p.i
At what height were trees that were too small felled?
trees that were too small to permit the removal of an increment core were felled at a height of 15 cm and a stem disc removed
(fig. 1). for dna extraction, we sampled newly unfolding leaves or leaf buds from each tree and dried these immediately in fine-grain silica gel. we also took increment cores at a height of 15 cm using a 4.3 mm increment borer. two or three cores were taken from each tree depending on the quality of the cores and ensuring one core passed through the centre of the tree. trees that were too small to permit the removal of an increment core were felled at a height of 15 cm and a stem disc removed. samples were dried, mounted on wood supports and sanded to prepare them for tree-ring analysis using standard dendroecological methods. prepared samples were then scanned at 1600 d.p.i. using a flatbed scanner and the data saved as jpeg files.
Describe the designed simulation protocol.
second, we design a simulation protocol able to quantify the error in the yield prediction induced by each of the individual climate inputs used to drive the crop model
What is the one acception from the crop model observed?
we run the crop model with observed climate data except for rainfall
What is the protocol used for solar radiation and PET?
a similar protocol is applied but for solar radiation, temperature and pet. these simulations are performed both with raw and bias corrected climate model outputs
second, we design a simulation protocol able to quantify the error in the yield prediction induced by each of the individual climate inputs used to drive the crop model. we run the crop model with observed climate data except for rainfall which comes from the regional models. the comparison between the yield prediction from this simulation and the one obtained from the control simulation with only observed climate data illustrates the error induced by the representation of rainfall in the regional models. a similar protocol is applied but for solar radiation, temperature and pet. these simulations are performed both with raw and bias corrected climate model outputs. note that the objective of the simulation protocol is not to estimate realistically past observed variations of crop yield but to assess the sensitivity of simulated crop yield to the regional climate models biases.
What is described as full weather record ?
the full weather record is derived by interpolating a balanced panel of " patched " weather station data
What is the use for inverse distance-weighted ?
several economic studies that link economic outcomes to weather (or control for weather) use inverse distance-weighted averages for the closest available weather stations (see, e.g., deschenes and greenstone 2007; mendelsohn et al. 1994
What happens when location fixed effects remove average weather ?
when location fixed effects remove average weather outcomes at the interpolated location, and temporal fixed effects are included, the remaining weather variation is greatly diminished and the variation that is due to stations coming in and out of the sample can potentially account for a significant share of the overall variance
another pitfall of using weather data products in econometric estimation concerns averaging station-level data across space. several economic studies that link economic outcomes to weather (or control for weather) use inverse distance-weighted averages for the closest available weather stations (see, e.g., deschenes and greenstone 2007; mendelsohn et al. 1994). as with the panel versus cross-section data issue, such an approach works well for a cross-sectional analysis but becomes problematic when fixed effects are included in a panel data setting, especially when both location and time-fixed effects are included. this is because weather station data are sometimes missing (i.e., not only do weather stations come in and out of existence, they are also often turned off or values are simply not recorded). a time series of inverse distance-weighted averages of weather station data is likely to include variation from the birth and death of stations and observations that are missing for a given period. when location fixed effects remove average weather outcomes at the interpolated location, and temporal fixed effects are included, the remaining weather variation is greatly diminished and the variation that is due to stations coming in and out of the sample can potentially account for a significant share of the overall variance. for example, fisher et al. (2012) provide an example where the noise-to-signal ratio after removing location and temporal fixed effects is 7:1; that is, the measurement error greatly exceeds the variation used in the identification, which is likely to result in significant attenuation bias in estimation. a possible alternative to averaging weather station data that report weather indicators on a given day is to first fill in missing weather station data by regressing it on the closest surrounding stations and then to predict missing observations at a station (auffhammer and kellogg 2011; schlenker and roberts 2009). then the full weather record is derived by interpolating a balanced panel of " patched " weather station data. this approach keeps the set of stations that are used in the interpolation constant and ensures that the resulting variation is not caused by variation in station coverage.
What conditions are formerly extreme?
at the same time, areas with formerly extreme cscs at southern and low-elevation regions may become less suitable for resident mountain pine beetle populations if further warming results in partial multivoltinism. if this was the case, the net effect would simply be a displacement of mountain pine beetle disturbance northward and areas of former suitability would be, in the future, less suitable
What are low elevation regions?
at the same time, areas with formerly extreme cscs at southern and low-elevation regions may become less suitable for resident mountain pine beetle populations if further warming results in partial multivoltinism. if this was the case, the net effect would simply be a displacement of mountain pine beetle disturbance northward and areas of former suitability would be, in the future, less suitable
What is a resident mountain?
at the same time, areas with formerly extreme cscs at southern and low-elevation regions may become less suitable for resident mountain pine beetle populations if further warming results in partial multivoltinism. if this was the case, the net effect would simply be a displacement of mountain pine beetle disturbance northward and areas of former suitability would be, in the future, less suitable
at the same time, areas with formerly extreme cscs at southern and low-elevation regions may become less suitable for resident mountain pine beetle populations if further warming results in partial multivoltinism. if this was the case, the net effect would simply be a displacement of mountain pine beetle disturbance northward and areas of former suitability would be, in the future, less suitable. unfortunately, a recent study (bentz et al. 2001) has found a geneticallybased latitudinal gradient in development rates for mountain pine beetle suggesting that there may be sufficient genetic variability in contiguous mountain pine beetle populations to match changes in the climatic environment within the present range of the species.
WHERE HAVE 27 CASE STUDIES
in england
WHICH REGIONS NEED TO CHANGE THEY PLANS
london, new york, boston, halifax, greater vancouver, and seattle and king county
WHICH CITIES IN SOUTH ASIAN identified the aspects of urban governance enabling or hindering adaptation to climate change
bangkok, chennai, chittagong, cochin, dalian, da nang, hangzhou, ho chi minh city, ningbo and surat
the barriers to formulation and implementation of adaptation action plans and responses in general, not only those focusing on the use of green and blue spaces, have not been analysed extensively to date. however, there are some relevant examples. in england, cag consultants analysed 27 case studies of local planning authorities (municipalities) aiming to achieve the standards required by national indicator 188: planning to adapt to climate. the chartered institution of water and environmental management, at the end of a conference on integrated urban drainage in 2006, asked delegates for their views on key barriers to the implementation of integrated urban drainage systems, including suds, in the united kingdom. in penrith, australia, interviews were conducted in 2009 with eleven senior council managers to identify barriers preventing the council from implementing climate change adaptation plans. the clean air partnership investigated climate change adaptation plans in six urban regions: london, new york, boston, halifax, greater vancouver, and seattle and king county. in addition, the drivers and barriers for adaptation in ten cities in the global south (beijing, cape town, hong kong, yogyakarta, new dehli, melbourne, mexico city, mumbai, sao paulo, and seoul) have been investigated. a study by the institute of development studies identified the aspects of urban governance enabling or hindering adaptation to climate change in ten south asian cities (bangkok, chennai, chittagong, cochin, dalian, da nang, hangzhou, ho chi minh city, ningbo and surat). table 1 summarises the main factors affecting the development and implementation of adaptation strategies identified by these studies.
What preliminarily needs to be done for the temporary deactivation of a pond to be a simply operational measure?
the temporary deactivation of a pond can be a simple operational measure, if the primary pond stage has been designed in modules, and if there is an idle treatment capacity
What types of pumps can be used to remove sludge?
torque pumps (centrifuges) can be used, although they require dilution of the highly concentrated sludge, which results in an increased volume of sludge removed
Why is it recommended that the bottom of the pond not be accessed while the sludge presents a pasty consistence?
there have been cases of tractors stuck in the sludge in ponds, for which reason it is recommended that the bottom of the pond should not be accessed while the sludge presents a pasty consistency
the temporary deactivation of a pond can be a simple operational measure, if the primary pond stage has been designed in modules, and if there is an idle treatment capacity. however, if this stage consists of a single pond, or if the nominal design load has been already reached, the temporary deactivation may put in risk the stability of the subsequent treatment stage. another important aspect is related to emptying the pond. this operation, necessary for drying the sludge in the pond itself, requires previous planning and consent from the environmental agency. in case of very fast emptying, mainly in 648 stabilisation ponds anaerobic ponds, the impact of the anaerobic effluent on the receiving body can exceed its self-purification capacity. fish death, unpleasant odours and protests by the population may arise as a consequence. a) manual removal in this case, the sludge is submitted to drying inside the pond itself, until it is consistent enough to be removed by spades and wheelbarrows (ts>30%). the disadvantage of this technique is that it requires a long drying period. considering the period of time necessary to empty the pond, the drying period, and the period for the manual removal of the sludge, the pond will certainly remain deactivated for more than 3 months. however, the sludge volume to be removed under these conditions is much lower than the volume existent prior to the drying. another positive aspect is the possible complementary disinfection of the sludge by sunlight-induced pasteurisation. this can be a feasible solution for small sewage treatment plants (<5000 inhabitants). b) mechanical removal (by tractors) as in the previous technique, the sludge is submitted to drying in the pond and removed soon after. in view of the higher yield of the machines in the sludge removal, the pond can start to work again more quickly than in case of manual removal. however, for tractors or shovels to gain access to the bottom of the pond, the soil support capacity should be previously verified, so that neither the pond bottom sealing nor the stability of the slopes are affected. the ease of access of the machines into the pond should be evaluated, considering the option of partial rupture of the slopes for further reconstruction. there have been cases of tractors stuck in the sludge in ponds, for which reason it is recommended that the bottom of the pond should not be accessed while the sludge presents a pasty consistency (20% ts 30%). c) mechanised scraping and pumping of the sludge when the pond cannot be deactivated for a very long period of time, the sludge is partially dried in the air, mechanically scraped, and then pumped. this technique requires the aid of a tractor or another device to convey the sludge still in the liquid state to a lower point from where it will be pumped. the use of positive displacement pumps (piston, diaphragm, rotating lobes, high-pressure piston, etc.) is recommended due to their capacity to move the sludge mass. torque pumps (centrifuges) can be used, although they require dilution of the highly concentrated sludge, which results in an increased volume of sludge removed. management of the sludge from stabilisation ponds 649
What are two examples of the poorest regions in the world affected by climate change?
climate change is already affecting developing countries, and it is the poorest regions of the world--such as africa and southeast asia--that are most at risk
What do the green bars show?
the green bars show sensitivity of future impacts to societal changes and the blue bars show sensitivity to climate changes
What are the overwhelmingly dominant factor?
societal changes are the overwhelmingly dominant factor
clearly, implementing such measures now would provide greater malaria benefits over the next few decades than would climate stabilization at any level. it would also reduce vulnerability to malaria from all causes--man-made or natural--now and in the future. king's response to goklany simply avoids the issue: there is no real choice between action on climate change and action on poverty, disease, hunger, and other millennium development goals. these are part of the same sustainable development agenda. climate change is already affecting developing countries, and it is the poorest regions of the world--such as africa and southeast asia--that are most at risk. the many people who have died and the millions now homeless figure 6. a sensitivity analysis of the impacts of tropical cyclones in 2050 based on the assumptions of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. the green bars show sensitivity of future impacts to societal changes and the blue bars show sensitivity to climate changes. societal changes are the overwhelmingly dominant factor.
What is the key contribution of this report?
the key contribution of this report is the combination of unique maps of climate change-related trends and population distribution patterns, and fieldwork exploring the impacts of environmental change on migration, particularly the each-for project
What are the observations led to the formation of  the above hypothesis?
in the each-for project, the majority of migrants interviewed indicated that if the environment had affected a decision to migrate, it was most often because environmental changes had made it difficult for the individual or family to earn a living. these observations led to the formation of the hypothesis above
What does this section explores?
this section explores the regional dynamics of climate change processes and human mobility, looking at glacial melt, drying trends, flooding and sea level rise in some of the world's hotspot areas
this section explores the regional dynamics of climate change processes and human mobility, looking at glacial melt, drying trends, flooding and sea level rise in some of the world's hotspot areas. the key contribution of this report is the combination of unique maps of climate change-related trends and population distribution patterns, and fieldwork exploring the impacts of environmental change on migration, particularly the each-for project. the point of departure for this paper is the underlying hypothesis that environmental change affects human mobility most directly through livelihoods which are dependent on ecosystem services, such as agriculture, herding and fishing. this hypothesis was formed after a series of field investigations where researchers assessed the nature of the linkages between environmental stressors and migration. in the each-for project, the majority of migrants interviewed indicated that if the environment had affected a decision to migrate, it was most often because environmental changes had made it difficult for the individual or family to earn a living. these observations led to the formation of the hypothesis above. in this section, the reader follows a journey from the water towers of asia--the himalayan glaciers--to the drylands of central america and western africa (the sahel), then on to three of the world's major deltas (the ganges, the mekong, and the nile). the journey ends with some of the low lying island states of tuvalu and maldives. each area highlighted in this section has one map accompanied by a box explaining some of the key messages of each map, followed by findings from the field about the relationship between climate change, migration, and displacement.
How is the gas transfer determined?
the gas transfer is substantially determined by the height of the fall
When does hydrogen sulphide has better release conditions?
during the free fall phase
When is oxygen mostly absorbed?
after the submergence of the flow into the downstream water
the first mechanism relates to the exposure of the water to the surrounding air which occurs during the free fall. if the fall height h is known, the average air exposure time [t (2h/g)0 5] can be estimated, which allows an evaluation of the gas transfer coefficients. the configuration of the water fall crest influences the aeration, because the subdivision of the flow into several jets increases the air-water contact area, enabling an increased efficiency of the gas transfer operation. the second mechanism refers to the exposure of air to the water mass exactly the reverse of the first phenomenon. it occurs due to the submergence of the flow 484 basic principles of wastewater treatment into the bulk of the liquid located on the base of the waterfall, causing significant amounts of air to be absorbed. the incorporated air is then dispersed under the form of bubbles in the liquid, leading to an intense gas transfer. the amount of air absorbed in the second mechanism depends primarily on the velocity [v (2gh)0 5] of the jet passing through the surface of the downstream water. consequently, the gas transfer is substantially determined by the height of the fall, in a much more significant manner than in the first mechanism mentioned. besides that, the depth of the receiving water influences the amount of gas transferred: the deeper the jet can submerge into the water mass, the larger the specific surface area and the longer the contact time between the bubbles and the water. for an optimal utilisation of this effect, the depth should be such that the final velocity of the jets prior to reaching the bottom is equal to the upward velocity of the bubbles produced. in general terms, it is understood that the first mechanism is efficient for gas release, and the second for gas absorption. thus, for example, hydrogen sulphide has better release conditions during the free fall phase, while oxygen is mostly absorbed after the submergence of the flow into the downstream water. in summary:
What is the projected population growth between now and 2050?
between now and 2050, it is projected to increase from 6 to 9 billion
How many more cars will economic growth in China and India lead to?
around 1 billion car
Where was the post-Kyoto framework debated?
at the bali summit in 2007
these global targets are being translated into a plethora of sub-targets set at the european level, at the state level in the usa, and adopted by a number of localities and municipalities. it is the approach embedded in the kyoto framework, and in the european ambitions for the post-kyoto framework, and was the one at the centre of debates at the bali summit in 2007. but are these various targets enough? and is there any evidence that they are likely to be realized? unfortunately, global trends in the causes and levels of emissions--population growth, energy demand, and transport--suggest otherwise. the starting point is population and human consumption. climate change has accompanied industrialization and a rapid increase in population, both of which have been facilitated by the harnessing of fossil fuels. the world population tripled in the twentieth century from 2 to 6 billion. between now and 2050, it is projected to increase from 6 to 9 billion--to add more extra people than the entire world population in 1950. these additional people will be overwhelmingly concentrated in china, india, and africa--each with a total population of roughly 2 billion by 2050. the first two are expected to continue their rapid economic growth, with china perhaps matching current us consumption levels by 2050. china and india will in the process probably add around 1 billion cars, and will require the associated energy to sustain their much higher levels of consumption. africa may be a different story.5
Which types of nations will experienced climate change?
climate change will be experienced by the world's poorest nations
Who will experience greater risks to health?
climate change acts mostly as an amplifi er of existing risks to health, poor and disadvantaged people will experience greater increments in disease burden than rich
many of the most serious public health consequences of climate change will be experienced by the world's poorest nations, increasing global health inequities.20 basic infrastructure for much of the world's population is inadequate to meet essential health care needs, and our ability to cope eff ectively with the aftermath of natural disasters is insuffi cient. overall, all the underlying social, economic, and ecological determinants of global illness and premature death will be exacerbated by climate change.20 progress towards the millennium development goals and achievement of the 2015 targets might be impaired or reversed. because climate change acts mostly as an amplifi er of existing risks to health, poor and disadvantaged people will experience greater increments in disease burden than rich, less vulnerable populations.24,26
What approach does the The UNFCCC report Adaptation Options for Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (McCarl, 2007) take?
the unfccc report adaptation options for agriculture, forestry and fisheries (mccarl, 2007) takes a top-down approach to costing adaptation
Among which sectors does the UNFCCC report split adaptation costs?
it splits adaptation costs for the agriculture, forestry and fishery sectors taken as a whole into those needed for research, extension and physical capital expenditure
What percentage increase is expected in  in research and extension funding ?
a 10% increase in research and extension funding and a 2% increase in capital infrastructure costs are assumed due to climate change using the a1b1 sres scenario for 2030, termed 'without mitigation
the unfccc report adaptation options for agriculture, forestry and fisheries (mccarl, 2007) takes a top-down approach to costing adaptation. it splits adaptation costs for the agriculture, forestry and fishery sectors taken as a whole into those needed for research, extension and physical capital expenditure. it then projects forward the past trends in each of these, sourced from current estimates and the literature, and imposes an additional increase due to climate change. a 10% increase in research and extension funding and a 2% increase in capital infrastructure costs are assumed due to climate change using the a1b1 sres scenario for 2030, termed 'without mitigation'. these additional costs are then reduced for the sres b1 'mitigation' scenario by
what are the International priorities for food issues related to climate change ?
international priorities for food issues related to climate change include: willingness to ensure fairly distributed global food security, better use of local resources, preservation of sustainable ecosystems that provide local sources of nourishment, and revision of disasterrelief eff orts from emergency food distribution to long-term capacity rebuilding after climate-related natural disasters
how  can Social programmes effect on disease burdens?
social programmes that educate consumers about healthy diets and that try to limit the eff ects of unhealthy food might have an eff ect on disease burdens
international priorities for food issues related to climate change include: willingness to ensure fairly distributed global food security, better use of local resources, preservation of sustainable ecosystems that provide local sources of nourishment, and revision of disasterrelief eff orts from emergency food distribution to long-term capacity rebuilding after climate-related natural disasters. however, we focus more on immediate eff ects of disasters than on improvement of local and sustainable forms of food production before and after a disaster. a shift is needed from disaster response to risk reduction where the capacities of local populations are strengthened to anticipate and plan for risks ahead of their occurrence. food aid must be coupled with forms of sustainable reconstruction that are less formulaic and more locally sensitive. often, food distribution creates dependencies without being coupled with locally relevant forms of reconstruction. aid organisations that partly or completely withdraw food aid once a disaster setting has been identifi ed as in recovery phase must rethink how the desperation of now-dependent groups is increased when food aid is withdrawn or fought over in resettlement camps. social programmes that educate consumers about healthy diets and that try to limit the eff ects of unhealthy food might have an eff ect on disease burdens. nevertheless, such burdens are mainly carried by poor people who are likely to face severe constraints to access high-quality food or to modify their food choices. building local social capital around food supply is a major challenge. more attention needs to be given to the global agrifood system, to the added value of industrial processing, refi ning, and sweetening, and the economies of scale created by multinational and transnational operations. local food movement might only come when the crisis has deepened. a generalised reorientation to locally sourced produce would need both economic change and political intervention. finally, distribution systems that transport food over long distances not only contribute directly to climate change but also might decrease immunity when non-local foods are consumed.140
Mention the focussed on intentions?
a second limitation of this work is that we have focussed on intentions as the dependent measure of interest
How intentions are useful?
although this incorporated a variety of environmentally relevant actions, and although intentions are a useful indicator of responsiveness to climate change messages, intentions are not a substitute for actual behaviour
Define framing effects?
framing effects has investigated actual behaviour, and demonstrated that framing effects can be surprisingly persistent over time (e.g., meyerowitz chaiken, 1987). the relative ease of reframing climate change communications, combined with this promise of behavioural effects, suggests that this would be a useful focus for future research
a second limitation of this work is that we have focussed on intentions as the dependent measure of interest. although this incorporated a variety of environmentally relevant actions, and although intentions are a useful indicator of responsiveness to climate change messages, intentions are not a substitute for actual behaviour. notwithstanding the limitations of the present studies, some previous research on framing effects has investigated actual behaviour, and demonstrated that framing effects can be surprisingly persistent over time (e.g., meyerowitz chaiken, 1987). the relative ease of reframing climate change communications, combined with this promise of behavioural effects, suggests that this would be a useful focus for future research. finally, it should be noted that the effects observed in these studies were produced among fairly educated samples--participants in both studies were mostly students. while this permits some exploration of the role of framing and uncertainty on possible responses to climate change messages, among broader samples the picture is likely to be more complicated than presented here. for example, in comparison to students, other sections of the community may be more sceptical about the reality climate change. pre-existing scepticism is likely to be a significant barrier to any communication in this area, irrespective of how the message is framed. moreover, it is likely that sceptical individuals would react to scientific uncertainty differently to those less sceptical. given these possibilities, it would seem important to explore the processes identified here among more diverse samples, and to consider the complicating role of other variables, such as pre-existing attitudes or scepticism. 4.2 conclusion scientific messages about the impacts of climate change communicate a future scientific messages about the impacts of climate change communicate a future that may or may not come. this uncertainty about the future often allows people to
How many percent of significant range shifts were in accordance with expectations from each species?
82
How many percent of significant range shifts pooled across regions and species were upslope?
51
Was the study more or less successful at predicting observed shifts?
substantially more successful
our results demonstrate that site-specific expectations of the direction of elevational shift, based on both temperature and precipitation changes at a site, were substantially more successful at predicting observed shifts than the uniform hypothesis that all species should shift upslope. only 51% of significant range shifts pooled across regions and species were upslope. however, 82% of significant range shifts were in accordance with expectations from each species' nearest climatic neighbors based on both temperature and precipitation changes (fig. 3). although the northern (lassen) region barely warmed on average over the last century, showing localized areas of marginal warming and cooling
What is used to de-ice planes in Canada?
glycols
What could lead to the use of less chemicals at Canadian airports during the winter?
a warmer climate
What is one of the biggest responsibilities of the Canadian Coast Guard?
icebreaking services
the main chemicals used in canada are glycols for plane de-icing and urea for keeping airport facilities clear of snow and ice. experts are optimistic that a warmer climate is likely to reduce the amount of chemicals used, thus reducing costs for the airline industry,(44)as well as environmental damage (e.g., water pollution) caused by the chemicals. finally, for marine traffic, icebreaking services constitute a major activity of the canadian coast guard, and include organizing convoys and escorting ships through ice-covered waters, providing ice information and routing advice, freeing vessels trapped in ice and breaking out harbours.(22)if ice coverage and thickness are reduced in the future, vessels working in the same regions may require less ice-breaking capacity, which could save millions of dollars in capital and operation expenditures.(45)however, additional services of the canadian coast guard may be required in the
What international global change communities do authors acknowledge support?
the authors would like to also acknowledge support from the international global change communities, the wcrp, and igbp
Authors acknowledge written support from( dash ) participants
global change research program provided support. the authors acknowledge written contributions from, and discussions with, the following aspen workshop participants
According the above passage where was the workshop held
the workshop was held at the aspen global change institute as part of its summer interdisciplinary sessions
the workshop was held at the aspen global change institute as part of its summer interdisciplinary sessions. nasa and other agencies of the u.s. global change research program provided support. the authors acknowledge written contributions from, and discussions with, the following aspen workshop participants representing members from ipcc working groups i, ii, and iii, as well as wgcm and aimes: dave bader, olivier boucher, guy brasseur, peter gent, claire granier, george hurtt, michio kawamiya, david kicklighter, masahide kimoto, jean-francois lamarque, dave lawrence, norm mcfarlane, linda mearns, richard moss, nebojsa (naki) nakicenovic, phil rasch, david rind, steve smith, and ron stouffer. the authors would like to also acknowledge support from the international global change communities, the wcrp, and igbp.
According to Bongaarts85, what caused 50% of the growth in global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels between 1985 and 2025?
was due to population growth, according to the scenario under consideration
What could be the  most cost-eff ective greenhouse-gas measure?
the most cost-eff ective greenhouse-gas measure could be investment in making condoms and other simple birth-control technologies more widely available in populations wishing to limit their family sizes
What will happen in the next century?
over the next century there will be a major shift between more and less developed countries in the proportion of greenhouse-gas emissions, with less developed countries becoming responsible for most of the growth in emissions
as discussed in the fi rst article in this series, at its simplest, global emissions of greenhouse gas are a product of population, gdp per head, energy use per unit gdp, and greenhouse-gas emissions per unit of energy. this is an example of the i=pa e t equation, where i represents the natural resources used or pollution generated; p is the population; a is the per-head output (affl uence); e is energy use per unit economy, and t represents the natural resources used or pollution produced per unit energy (technology). there are arguments for using the household rather than the individual as the unit of choice: there are substantial economies of scale at the household level, and over time the growth rate in the number of households could be greater than the population growth rate. given that it is unlikely in the foreseeable future that per-head emissions of greenhouse gas can be reduced to zero, it is clear that the population must play a substantial part in determining global emissions of greenhouse gas and thus the rate and magnitude of climate change. in the near term, population growth will make a predictable contribution to the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, in view of the momentum of population growth.84 however, in the longer term, diff erent population trajectories could have a substantial eff ect on greenhouse-gas emissions. bongaarts85 concluded that 50% of the growth in global emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil fuels between 1985 and 2025 was due to population growth, according to the scenario under consideration. over the next century there will be a major shift between more and less developed countries in the proportion of greenhouse-gas emissions, with less developed countries becoming responsible for most of the growth in emissions.73 although policies to reduce per-head emissions will have the largest eff ect in the short term, policies to accelerate the demographic transition and thus reduce population growth can have a major eff ect on greenhouse-gas emissions in the long term. indeed, it has been said that the most cost-eff ective greenhouse-gas measure could be investment in making condoms and other simple birth-control technologies more widely available in populations wishing to limit their family sizes.86
What is another finding about the resolution difference from the driving data to the RCM?
can be up to the order of 6-8, and perhaps even somewhat larger
What kind of boundary resolution would a GCM with a 200km resolution provide?
around 25 km
What should downscaling be run in?
several stages
another finding is that the resolution difference from the driving data to the rcm can be up to the order of 6-8, and perhaps even somewhat larger. this means that a gcm with a 200 km resolution can provide boundary conditions for an rcm with a resolution up to around 25 km. if this is felt to be problematic for some reason, or the set-up of the study leads to a larger jump, multiple-nesting is an option. this means that a downscaling is run in several stages. first an rcm is forced with original boundary conditions over a somewhat larger domain than the intended final one. the results are then used to run a second rcm, of higher resolution, on a smaller domain within the first one, etc.27
Define sensitivity?
sensitivity is the slope of the relationship between seasonal timing (day of year) and temperature (degc) or precipitation (mm per day
Which describes the inverted triangle?
average sensitivity for all species a b or trophic levels c - f
extended data figure 3 climate sensitivities, based on different time periods. top: all data; middle: pre-1980 data; bottom: post-1980 data. sensitivity is the slope of the relationship between seasonal timing (day of year) and temperature (degc) or precipitation (mm per day). a b limits of temperature a and precipitation b sensitivity are summarized for all taxa. c - f lower c d and upper e f limits of temperature c e and precipitation d f sensitivity are shown by trophic level. inverted triangles: average sensitivity for all species a b or trophic levels c - f ). curves, kernel density plots: probability density distributions of specieslevel climate sensitivity (that is, the relative likelihood of different climate sensitivities within each species group) n 370,725).
What will be the outcome of modernisation of agriculture in low-income countries?
modernisation of agriculture in low-income countries, which reverses land degradation and increases food yields, could help to buff er vulnerable populations from reductions in food availability induced by climate change while improving the capacity of soil to act as a carbon sink
Who will suffer the most from climate change effects?
poor populations are likely to suff er disproportionately from the adverse eff ects of climate change
Why is clean energy essential?
clean energy and adequate water quantity and quality are essential to good public health, agriculture, and development
poor populations are likely to suff er disproportionately from the adverse eff ects of climate change.4,5 their vulnerability could be reduced in several ways by improving access to clean energy--eg, reliable energy supplies are required for lighting, maintaining the cold chain for vaccines and other essential equipment in health facilities, and to power telecommunications equipment. clean energy and adequate water quantity and quality are essential to good public health, agriculture, and development. in view of the growing water crisis (from overuse, depletion of soils, and irregular precipitation accompanying climate change) in many countries, the need to pump, decontaminate, and desalinate water could become a major objective for the clean energy transition. by contributing to poverty reduction, improved access to such energy sources can lead to increased resilience in the face of climate change. modernisation of agriculture in low-income countries, which reverses land degradation and increases food yields, could help to buff er vulnerable populations from reductions in food availability induced by climate change while improving the capacity of soil to act as a carbon sink.
Why is necessary to act early and plan collectively?
the need to collectively plan and act early enough to create a way of living that is significantly more connected, more vibrant and more in touch with the environment than the oil-addicted treadmill that we find ourselves on today
With which issues Stroud working groups are dealing with?
in stroud working groups have been set up in the town dealing with a wide range of issues including the arts, energy, building and water, food, lifestyle and livelihoods, ' connections ' events, bright ideas, health and well-being, transport, textiles, business and government and information technology in what amounts to almost an alternative council for the town, working bottom - up from the strengths of the few to build capacity and grow resilience for the many
Will the next decade be characterized by an intense power demand and supply shift?
and these are just the first wave of the great power demand and supply shift that will characterize the decades ahead
the need to use the scale of creativity, ingenuity and adaptability employed on the way up the fossil fuel energy supply slope, to manage the descent down the other side. <s121>* the need to collectively plan and act early enough to create a way of living that is significantly more connected, more vibrant and more in touch with the environment than the oil-addicted treadmill that we find ourselves on today. communities as far apart as totnes 38 lampeter 39 and stroud 40 have all risen to the clarion call of the movement and with some remarkable results. in stroud working groups have been set up in the town dealing with a wide range of issues including the arts, energy, building and water, food, lifestyle and livelihoods, ' connections ' events, bright ideas, health and well-being, transport, textiles, business and government and information technology in what amounts to almost an alternative council for the town, working bottom - up from the strengths of the few to build capacity and grow resilience for the many. and these are just the first wave of the great power demand and supply shift that will characterize the decades ahead.
What are the causes of climate change ?
climate change (including climate variability) already affects physical processes in many parts of the world, leading to changes in temperature and rainfall patterns, in wind direction and increased intensity and frequency of extreme events like droughts, floods and cyclones (trenberth et al. 2007
What are the reasons for greenhouse gas emissions of the 19th and 20th centuries?
the time-lagged nature of climate change implies that the currently observed climate change is attributable to greenhouse gas emissions of the 19th and 20th centuries and that the effects of current greenhouse gas emissions will also lag into the future
What will be declared in the Article 15?
resilient adaptation complements the concept of the "precautionary principle" in article 15 of the rio declaration of 1992 (glantz 2008
climate change (including climate variability) already affects physical processes in many parts of the world, leading to changes in temperature and rainfall patterns, in wind direction and increased intensity and frequency of extreme events like droughts, floods and cyclones (trenberth et al. 2007). the time-lagged nature of climate change implies that the currently observed climate change is attributable to greenhouse gas emissions of the 19th and 20th centuries and that the effects of current greenhouse gas emissions will also lag into the future. this means that focussing on mitigation alone will not address the inevitable impacts of currently observed climate change. adaptation, that is adjustments which moderate harm or exploit beneficial opportunities in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects is therefore imperative (ipcc 2007). however, a central argument of this study is that it is not sufficient merely to adapt but that adaptations need to be resilient (see box 1). box 1: resilience and resilient adaptation resilience refers to the ability of a system to deal with stresses and disturbances, while retaining the same basic structure and ways of functioning, capacity for self-organisation, and capacity to learn and adapt to change. resilience is therefore about managing changes and adaptations should contribute to climate-resilient development i. e. adaptations that can stand the test of current and future climate risks. a resilient adaptation is thus one that contributes to the various features of resilience in the short and long-term. resilient adaptation complements the concept of the "precautionary principle" in article 15 of the rio declaration of 1992 (glantz 2008). the concept of resilient adaptation can serve as a guiding principle for planning adaptations which account for uncertainties in future climate change. considering this uncertainty and the dynamic nature of climate change, mal-adaptations, i. e. adaptations that may appear appropriate and beneficial in the shortterm but increase vulnerability with time are non-resilient. sources: carpenter et al. 2001; berkes colding folke 2003; folke 2006; ipcc 2007; glantz 2008
How are wastewater treatment plants designed?
wastewater treatment plants are designed based on a desired oxygen transfer rate fromtheaerationsystem
What are the factors that influence the tests, considering the transformation of the standard condition values to the real situation in the treatment plant?
the transformation of the standard condition values to the real situation in the treatment plant is difficult, because of the various influencing factors, such as the tank shape, number and placing of the aerators and others
What is considered the highest energy cost in a treatment plant?
the greatest energy costs in a treatment plant are related with aeration, the economy resulting from this procedure can be considerable
wastewater treatment plants are designed based on a desired oxygen transfer rate fromtheaerationsystem.normallythistransferrate,whetherexpressedinstandard conditionsorinfieldoperatingconditions,ispartofthespecificationforpurchasing the aeration equipment. unfortunately, it has not been a common practice the undertaking of aeration tests to verify if the equipment being supplied satisfies the required oxygen demand. even with the tests carried out in the manufacturer's laboratory, the transformation of the standard condition values to the real situation in the treatment plant is difficult, because of the various influencing factors, such as the tank shape, number and placing of the aerators and others. in the existing treatment plants it is very important to know the oxygenation capacity of the installed equipment. in the same way that the influent quality is monitored in order to allow the estimation of oxygen consumption (bod), it is equally important to have the knowledge of the real capacity of oxygen production available in the reactor under operational conditions this aspect becomes even more important, considering that there is an optimal operating point that leads to the greatest oxygen transfer efficiency (mass of o2 supplied per unit of energy consumed). for instance, in reactors with mechanical aeration, this point is obtained at a certain submergence of the aerators, which can be achieved through the adjustment of the level of the outlet weir (which may be also variable during the day). hence, it is important that aeration tests be carried out under operational conditions, aiming at determining the level of the outlet weir that leads to the supply of the required o2 mass within the greatest possible transfer efficiency considering that the greatest energy costs in a treatment plant are related with aeration, the economy resulting from this procedure can be considerable.
What major city was affected by a power outage in in 2003?
what we learnt in the summer of 2003, as the lights went out in cities around the world (for millions of people in italy because a single tree blew across a power line in a storm), was that in fact the people in the buildings of new york were the most vulnerable of all during power failures
What factors impact why the ABI will ensure or not ensure the availability of flood insurance?
whether the abi now decides to insure the homes in an area will depend on whether the government has, or has not, constructed adequate flood defence works in that area by that time and tightened planning controls locally
What are some of the major questions that this paragraph poses?
where are the economic impacts of that withholding then recorded? who is responsible for the welfare of those flooded
there is also little evidence of work having been done on quantifying the vulnerability of populations to long-term internal costs. if, for instance, the thames flooded, inundating riverside homes in the capital or fashionable riverside sites, many very rich people, including mps, could lose their life's savings that are wrapped up in, say, a westminster flat. how does one calculate the knockon impacts on an economy of the loss of the lifetime investment of thousands of people? in the uk, the association of british insurers (abi) guaranteed availability of flood insurance for areas where the flood risk is less than one in 75 years in 2007. whether the abi now decides to insure the homes in an area will depend on whether the government has, or has not, constructed adequate flood defence works in that area by that time and tightened planning controls locally. in many areas such assurances will not be forthcoming and insurance will be withheld. where are the economic impacts of that withholding then recorded? who is responsible for the welfare of those flooded? people who have, perhaps, ps 200 000 mortgages on such properties may spend the rest of their working lives paying off a mortgage on a property that is virtually unsellable. such people may no longer be able to afford to live in expensive cities and may have to move to where they can afford housing in the future. lives are already being ruined by such flooding. similarly insurance companies and banks that have invested in inner city properties that are shown to be increasingly expensive to heat, cool and maintain as the climate warms and the costs of energy rise may find it impossible to sell such ' white elephant ' or ' dog ' buildings, and sections of the markets, where large amounts of equity are placed in real estate, could collapse, taking swathes of white collar workers and their families into poverty. similar results could accrue from the direct impacts of catastrophic storms that destroy vulnerable buildings, or fires or urban flooding. buildings, or whole areas of a city, are already subject to resulting negative equity. what we learnt in the summer of 2003, as the lights went out in cities around the world (for millions of people in italy because a single tree blew across a power line in a storm), was that in fact the people in the buildings of new york were the most vulnerable of all during power failures. high-rise buildings had to empty within minutes because the air was no longer breathable, according to some evacuees. those in simple traditional buildings in cities in the developing world
How many percentage of interviewees reported  the main reason for the children?
45% of the interviewees reported that the main reason was for the children to play, and this applied to both sites
How many percentage of the people were interested to spend their time in natural environment?
this is in compliance with previous studies in open spaces, which have pointed out the attraction of outdoor cafes and restaurants 32% of the people have reported being there to relax, considering the outdoor environment with the natural setting as relaxing
How many of the interviewees were reported that they were arrived straight from home?
1037 interviewees reported that they arrived there straight form home
analysing the related social aspects of the questionnaire, interesting issues arose. as far as the reasons bringing people in the area, 45% of the interviewees reported that the main reason was for the children to play, and this applied to both sites. food/ coffee consumption is also a main attraction, as in karaiskaki, 20% of the interviewees report that as the main reason for being in the area. this is in compliance with previous studies in open spaces, which have pointed out the attraction of outdoor cafes and restaurants 32% of the people have reported being there to relax, considering the outdoor environment with the natural setting as relaxing. in terms of where the people are coming from, before arriving at the open space, a staggering 72%, i.e. 1037 interviewees reported that they arrived there straight form home. this is an important finding, as people viewed the open space as their actual destination, demonstrating the importance of open spaces in the urban fabric for every day life, covering basic human needs. only 11% arrived in the space returning from carrying out various duties.
How longer-term responses of spring albedo and tree cover are characterized?
longer-term responses fires during 2001 2008 were used to characterize longer-term responses of spring fires during 2001 2008 were used to characterize longer-term responses of spring albedo and tree cover
How burned trajectories are normalized?
we normalized burned trajectories by control trajectories, derived in the same manner using all available pixels for each fire year
Why a running three-year average filter for spring albedo is used?
because of the relatively high inter-annual variability in spring albedo in southern eurasia, we used a running three-year average filter for spring albedo in each pixel for this region when applicable
longer-term responses fires during 2001 2008 were used to characterize longer-term responses of spring fires during 2001 2008 were used to characterize longer-term responses of spring albedo and tree cover. we first derived post-fire trajectories for each variable using fires between 2001 and 2005. for every fire year, variables were tracked from the pre-fire year through maximum post-fire year for pixels that contained a valid pre-fire year and at least one valid postfire year data point. collections of trajectories were then averaged to produce one coherent time series, similar to ref. 22. because these variables may display temporal trends, we normalized burned trajectories by control trajectories, derived in the same manner using all available pixels for each fire year. because of the relatively high inter-annual variability in spring albedo in southern eurasia, we used a running three-year average filter for spring albedo in each pixel for this region when applicable. we quantified uncertainty in the trajectories by deriving them
What is important to understand when measuring the economic cost of an activity?
when measuring the economic cost of an activity it is important to understand the purpose for which the cost is being evaluated
What are some issues associated with such an evaluation?
the issues associated with such an evaluation are complex, and include a recognition that market prices may not represent the true value of the project owing to distortions in the market, and the fact that many benefits and costs are not subject to market transactions and therefore do not have readily observed values
What is a CBA?
in many cases the cost-benefit analysis (cba) is conducted from the perspective of a single economic agent
when measuring the economic cost of an activity it is important to understand the purpose for which the cost is being evaluated. the usual reason for measuring cost is to compare the costs and benefits of a project in order to judge whether it should be implemented. the issues associated with such an evaluation are complex, and include a recognition that market prices may not represent the true value of the project owing to distortions in the market, and the fact that many benefits and costs are not subject to market transactions and therefore do not have readily observed values. in many cases the cost-benefit analysis (cba) is conducted from the perspective of a single economic agent. for example, a firm may conduct a cba of a particular investment project, a government might analyse a scheme to protect a site of environmental value, and consumers might be interested in the costs and benefits of replacing their car. in a broader context, such as that under consideration in this chapter, the evaluation does not pertain to a
The UNFCC assessed adaptation under what scenarios?
the unfccc assessed adaptation under two scenarios - 'business as usual' (bau) and mitigation
Was the extent of residual damage estimated?
thus the extent of residual damage was not estimated and indeed is unknown at the global level
The World Conservation Union suggested that at least how many per cent of the land area of each nation or ecosystem should be set aside for conservation?
the mitigation scenario used the world conservation union's suggestion that at least 10% of the land area of each nation or ecosystem be set aside for conservation (iucn, 1993) and the costs of achieving this were calculated
the unfccc assessed adaptation under two scenarios - 'business as usual' (bau) and mitigation. both of these had no explicit level of adaptation for climate change to be achieved, but relied on the assumption that an adequate network would provide at least the first step in providing the necessary adaptation to climate change. thus the extent of residual damage was not estimated and indeed is unknown at the global level. the mitigation scenario used the world conservation union's suggestion that at least 10% of the land area of each nation or ecosystem be set aside for conservation (iucn, 1993) and the costs of achieving this were calculated. for the bau scenario it was assumed that due to a greater climate change, pan would need strengthening, and the costs were calculated by increasing the percentage of higher protection levels of iucn categories within this 10%. this level of adaptation was thought to be inadequate given the projected changes in biodiversity and, more particularly, it would not ensure the maintenance of ecological and evolutionary processes, which are an important part of autonomous adaptation (james et al., 2001). also, reserves need to be seen in a wider landscape context, as species may be (partly) dependent on the surrounding land and its use may add to the pressures on pan. thus they explored the additional costs involved in establishing a wider matrix for conservation.
Which model did the Jenkinson et al (1991) use to simulate the impact of global warming on soil carbon?
the study of jenkinson et al (1991), which also used the rothc model to simulate the impact of global warming on soil carbon
Paraphrase the results from this experiement.
the results from our experiment (where the global mean temperature is also increasing at about 0.5 1 c per decade) indicate that the release over the same period will be less than 10 gtc but accelerating to reach about 70 gtc by the end of the century (see fig. 4
What is the main reason for the difference of increase in carbon inputs?
the main reason for the difference is almost certainly the increase in carbon inputs resulting from co2 fertilization of plant growth in this study. there are significant sources of uncertainty that may affect the magnitude of the soil carbon feedback on climate change
the study of jenkinson et al (1991), which also used the rothc model to simulate the impact of global warming on soil carbon, estimated a release of about 100 gtc over period 1990 to 2050, assuming constant organic carbon inputs to the soil while temperature increased at the rate of 0.5 1 c per decade. the results from our experiment (where the global mean temperature is also increasing at about 0.5 1 c per decade) indicate that the release over the same period will be less than 10 gtc but accelerating to reach about 70 gtc by the end of the century (see fig. 4). the main reason for the difference is almost certainly the increase in carbon inputs resulting from co2 fertilization of plant growth in this study. there are significant sources of uncertainty that may affect the magnitude of the soil carbon feedback on climate change. similar experiments performed by post et al (1996) gave different results. although increased temperatures caused a decrease in soil carbon stocks, increased vegetation productivity was sufficient to
What signals the transition from active to dormant stage?
leaf senescence in winter deciduous species signals the transition from the active to the dormant stage
What is the purpose of leaf senescence?
the purpose of leaf senescence is the recovery of nutrients before the leaves fall
What the main cues controlling leaf senescence in winter deciduous species?
photoperiod and temperature are the main cues controlling leaf senescence in winter deciduous species, with water stress imposing an additional influence
leaf senescence in winter deciduous species signals the transition from the active to the dormant stage. the purpose of leaf senescence is the recovery of nutrients before the leaves fall. photoperiod and temperature are the main cues controlling leaf senescence in winter deciduous species, with water stress imposing an additional influence. photoperiod exerts a strict control on leaf senescence at latitudes where winters are severe and temperature gains importance in the regulation as winters become less severe. on average, climatic warming will delay and drought will advance leaf senescence, but at varying degrees depending on the species. warming and drought thus have opposite effects on the phenology of leaf senescence, and the impact of climate change will therefore depend on the relative importance of each factor in specific regions. warming is not expected to have a strong impact on nutrient proficiency although a slower speed of leaf senescence induced by warming could facilitate a more efficient nutrient resorption. nutrient resorption is less efficient when the leaves senesce prematurely as a consequence of water stress. the overall effects of climate change on nutrient resorption will depend on the contrasting effects of warming and drought. changes in nutrient resorption and proficiency will impact production in the following year, at least in early spring, because the construction of new foliage relies almost exclusively on nutrients resorbed from foliage during the preceding leaf fall. changes in the phenology of leaf senescence will thus impact carbon uptake, but also ecosystem nutrient cycling, especially if the changes are consequence of water stress.
what does Inadequate waste and waste water treatment infrastructure can lead to ?
inadequate waste and waste water treatment infrastructure, which can lead to blocked drains, soil erosion, water-damaged walls and create breeding grounds for disease
what are the example of  Destruction of (natural) hazard protections?
destruction of (natural) hazard protections, such as windbreaks, flood walls, floodplains, slope stabilization, fresh air corridors or vegetation that is crucial for ground stability, permeability and cooling
what is the reason for Constant changes in vulnerability patterns?
constant changes in vulnerability patterns, which are due to dynamic urbanization processes (reshaped buildings and expansion of communities) and are difficult keep track of
inadequate waste and waste water treatment infrastructure, which can lead to blocked drains, soil erosion, water-damaged walls and create breeding grounds for disease (e.g. by attracting vectors such as mosquitos and rats). this leads to increased risk and means that floods, landslides, earthquakes and disease have a greater impact. economic specialization (as opposed to diversification), which makes populations vulnerable to the impact of disasters. lack of social interactions with neighbours, which negatively affects social cohesion and consequently, any communal efforts to reduce and adapt to increased risk. 3. creation of a domino effect where damage and secondary hazards that are created by the concentration, density and combination of all types of vulnerability factors, quickly spread (cf. eea, 2012). 4. destruction of (natural) hazard protections, such as windbreaks, flood walls, floodplains, slope stabilization, fresh air corridors or vegetation that is crucial for ground stability, permeability and cooling. 5. increased vulnerability due to a weakened ability of the population to prioritize and take measures to reduce or adapt to increased risk. this is mainly due to the influence of the urban fabric on socio-economic factors (resulting in stressors such as urban violence or food insecurity) and ecological factors (that have a negative impact on health and wellbeing). 6. constant changes in vulnerability patterns, which are due to dynamic urbanization processes (reshaped buildings and expansion of communities) and are difficult keep track of. moreover, urban populations' differential vulnerability is more heterogeneous than in rural communities. this can be seen in terms of sources of income, income levels, habits, household size and composition, housing types, access to services, etc.
what is the basis for the prediction that  fuel prices will increase over the next century.?
these changes are likely to occur due to expected reductions in remaining fossil fuel reserves in our base case scenario, we assume that oil, natural gas, and other fuel prices increase 50% by 2100
Can it be assumed that electricity prices will increase significantly? If not , why?
we assume that electricity prices will increase only 25% because of the presence of relatively plentiful coal and nuclear power
we predict that fuel prices will increase over the next century. these changes are likely to occur due to expected reductions in remaining fossil fuel reserves in our base case scenario, we assume that oil, natural gas, and other fuel prices increase 50% by 2100. we assume that electricity prices will increase only 25% because of the presence of relatively plentiful coal and nuclear power. as oil and gas prices rise, we assume that synthetic gases and oils will be made 22 22 from coal. this backstop technology is expensive but likely abundant. all of these changes will affect the baseline fuel choice, conditional consumption, and energy expenditures in our forecasts for 2100. given the baseline assumptions, we simulate how climate change may impact the 2100 economy. the scenarios test the change in energy expenditure with and without the climate changing. both climate change scenarios assume uniform climate change across the us. although individual climate models predict that changes in climate are likely to vary across regions within the us, there is no agreement across models regarding how that variation will occur. the uniform change scenarios are a reasonable approximation to the expected climate effects for a country and they are easy to interpret. table viii reports our findings for the future climate scenarios, focusing on the total residential, commercial, and aggregate changes in expenditures again using bootstrapping. in our base case future scenario, a 5 @ c warming increases energy expenditures by $57 billion per year. the impact is split 38% to the commercial sector and 62% to the residential sector. the low climate warming scenario (a uniform increase of 2.5 @ c) predicts that total expenditures will increase by $26 billion annually. again, the effects are borne primarily by residential customers. note that doubling the temperature change more than doubles the expected damages.21
What is included in vector p ?
the vector p could, for instance, include the mean p1 m and the variance p2 s of a distribution
Which type od downscaling can be called as a special case of linear model?
weather type - based downscaling the popular approach to condition local - scale precipitation on weather types can be thought of as a special case of a linear model
Which predictor fields are used instead of continuous predictor field to predict the mean of local precipitation?
instead of a continuous predictor field, a set of categorical weather types xk are used to predict the mean of local precipitation
the vector p could, for instance, include the mean p1 m and the variance p2 s of a distribution. in extreme value statistics, these models have long been used when modeling the extreme value parameters dependent on covariates coles 2001]. vglms have recently been applied to downscale precipitation occurrence in the united states vrac et al. 2007d], and a vglm developed to model uk precipitation extremes maraun et al. 2010a] could easily be adopted to downscaling. 4.1.3.4. weather type - based downscaling the popular approach to condition local - scale precipitation on weather types can be thought of as a special case of a linear model. instead of a continuous predictor field, a set of categorical weather types xk are used to predict the mean of local precipitation:
How health impacts of climate change are addressed?
health impacts are addressed primarily through an epidemiological review, assessing the quality of the existing evidence base for health outcomes of flooding and analysing trends in the findings
How mechanisms of response to health risks from floods are addressed?
mechanisms of response to health risks from floods are addressed via a more discursive review of literature, in which the intention is not to provide an 'inventory' of specific health-related responses but to highlight key practical and policy issues that arise in processes of response and adaptation
What are the dual purpose of global climate change study?
this study therefore serves a dual purpose: taking stock of research and intervention needs in the critical field of flood risk and health; and providing the first strategic assessment of behavioural and public policy adaptation to potential health impacts of climate change. in doing so, it frames health not merely as a medical or technical matter, but, crucially, also as a social, cultural, economic and political issue
the objectives of the report are: 1) to present findings from a wide-ranging review of global literature on health impacts, adaptation processes and policies relating to flood risk. 2) to make a critical assessment of the existing knowledge base and identify key opportunities and challenges for intervention and research. 3) to assess the implications of climate change and future flood risk for health impacts, adaptation processes and policies. the review combines two distinct disciplinary approaches. health impacts are addressed primarily through an epidemiological review, assessing the quality of the existing evidence base for health outcomes of flooding and analysing trends in the findings. mechanisms of response to health risks from floods are addressed via a more discursive review of literature, in which the intention is not to provide an 'inventory' of specific health-related responses but to highlight key practical and policy issues that arise in processes of response and adaptation. to date there has been no global systematic integration of epidemiological, social and institutional studies that have addressed climate change adaptation in relation to human population health. this study therefore serves a dual purpose: taking stock of research and intervention needs in the critical field of flood risk and health; and providing the first strategic assessment of behavioural and public policy adaptation to potential health impacts of climate change. in doing so, it frames health not merely as a medical or technical matter, but, crucially, also as a social, cultural, economic and political issue.
In which way do the programs assist leaders?
programs such as these can provide leaders with the necessary tools and support, as they attempt to enhance their effectiveness and lead their employees to achieve better performance results
What does the present model elude to?
the present model elucidates the specific leadership behaviors that are instrumental in constructing unique forms of climate perceptions, and in turn, affecting employee motivation
What have recent corporate scandals involved?
recent corporate scandals involving cover-ups of questionable management practices to promote a more favorable corporate image illustrate the costly implications of being motivated to avoid failure
the three dimensions of goal orientation provide a vehicle by which to explore a range of practically significant employee motivations. because of the emergence of the knowledge economy and the increasingly dynamic and complex nature of work (howard, 1995), understanding how to enhance employees' motivation to learn is critical. in regard to a motivation to prove one's ability, research demonstrates its pervasiveness in work contexts, such as in the recruitment and selection process (e.g., stevens kristof, 1995) and in situations involving leadership (e.g., gardner avolio, 1998). lastly, recent corporate scandals involving cover-ups of questionable management practices to promote a more favorable corporate image illustrate the costly implications of being motivated to avoid failure. the present model elucidates the specific leadership behaviors that are instrumental in constructing unique forms of climate perceptions, and in turn, affecting employee motivation. articulation of these behaviors and their implications provides a means through which leadership may be evaluated and provides one necessary component for developing effective leadership in organizations. second, the premise that leaders can impact employee motivation and performance through their own priorities and behaviors provides an empowering philosophical orientation to leadership development. organizations may design leadership programs to assist leaders in developing their capabilities of identifying their implicit priorities; reflecting, evaluating, and modifying how they communicate these priorities to their employees; and evaluating and improving the effectiveness of the type of climate they create within their work group. programs such as these can provide leaders with the necessary tools and support, as they attempt to enhance their effectiveness and lead their employees to achieve better performance results.
What does the term gender explain?
the term 'gender' explains the socially constructed identities, roles and expectations associated with males and females
What have gender beliefs shaped?
these beliefs have shaped how men and women have been valued, classified and assigned roles and expectations over time
What will creating greater gender equity contribute to?
creating greater gender equity will contribute to building peaceful, democratic and prosperous societies
gender: the term 'gender' explains the socially constructed identities, roles and expectations associated with males and females. these beliefs have shaped how men and women have been valued, classified and assigned roles and expectations over time. 'gender' describes the unequal relationship between men and women and makes clear that the prevailing unequal gender roles and relations help to limit women's participation and contribution. as a result of this inequity, local government projects have not had the full benefit of women's perspectives and have therefore often not adequately responded to societal needs. by understanding gender as a socially constructed relationship between men and women, the possibility of changing the nature of male-female relations becomes evident. it is important to note that working towards gender equality does not mean sameness between women and men, but rather that both can exercise their rights in an equitable process which recognizes that their starting points are different, but nevertheless equal. (buddha 2002) it has also been pointed out that gender issues are not the same as women's' issues. understanding gender means understanding opportunities, constraints and the impacts of change as they affect both men and women. partnerships and equality between men and women is the basis of strong families and viable societies in a rapidly changing world. yet misogynistic views lie at the heart of continued discrimination against women. women have been consistently excluded from decision-making across history and societies. they are not the only group that has been underrepresented, since many governance systems have been based on the dominance of one or a few elite social groups. however, such power structures cause imbalance, marginalisation, suffering and conflict. creating greater gender equity will contribute to building peaceful, democratic and prosperous societies. (hemmati gardiner, 2002, p1) gender roles: in most societies gender inequity derives from the fact that women must fulfil three main roles, which are largely unrecognized and undervalued. women in societies around the world are mainly responsible for the following roles: reproductive: this refers to women's child bearing as well as to their child rearing roles. in these nurturing and caring roles, women are responsible for contributing workers born, raised and sustained within the private sphere or 'families' to the public productive sphere. women are therefore responsible for numerous activities related to the reproduction and maintenance of the public sector labor force. productive: this refers to women's role as income earners in both formal and informal sectors. though they are often regarded as secondary income earners, there are growing numbers of women assuming the role of sole income earners, such as in femaleheaded households. community: this refers to women's collective work at the community level. as primary care givers in the family, women's responsibilities often extend into the immediate community, such as local health, safety, and education infrastructures. women must balance these three roles, whereas men generally only have a productive role and may be involved in 'community politics' mostly at the formal level. (budhu 2002) beliefs and values: traditional beliefs and values of women and men are deep seated and ingrained in the social and cultural fabric of most societies, and serve to justify deep systemic
What is an example of a predominantly montane and subalpine taxa?
on the other hand, cooler or moister climates might have seen expansion down slope of predominantly montane and subalpine taxa such as abies lasiocarpa
What could have happened under warmer and drier conditions?
this region is of particular climatic significance, because under conditions warmer and drier than today, dominant southern elements such as pseudotsuga, and xeric open vegetation of grasses and lowland artemisia could have extended north of their current limits
british columbia 69 this region is of particular climatic significance, because under conditions warmer and drier than today, dominant southern elements such as pseudotsuga, and xeric open vegetation of grasses and lowland artemisia could have extended north of their current limits. on the other hand, cooler or moister climates might have seen expansion down slope of predominantly montane and subalpine taxa such as abies lasiocarpa. to date only two radiocarbon-dated studies, to be published in detail elsewhere, one from heckmann pass in the plateau-coast mountain transition (hebda and allen, unpublished) and one in the centre of the region near quesnel (hebda, unpublished), provide insight into the vegetation and climatic history of this region. the record from dwarf birch lake, heckmann pass (1450 m) (fig. 1,
where do we  turn specifically to variability
in the pacific and atlantic. in the pacific
the study on interdecadal variability has developed along how many lines?
two major lines
The other line adopts the what theory?
the stochastic climate theory
we now turn specifically to variability in the pacific and atlantic. in the pacific, the study on interdecadal variability has developed along two major lines. one line largely follows the classical enso idea in which interdecadal variability is viewed as a self-exciting oscillation generated by a positive ocean-atmosphere feedback and a delayed negative feedback associated with extratropical oceanic rossby waves. this ''enso analog'' reflects, in part, the early thinking of enso as a self-exciting oscillation (philander et al. 1984; cane and zebiak 1985; suarez and schopf 1988); it also reflects the similarities of the observed patterns of pacific interdecadal variability to enso variability (zhang et al. 1997). the other line adopts the stochastic climate theory (hasselmann 1976) and considers interdecadal variability to be forced by stochastic atmospheric internal variability. regardless of the generation mechanism, however, it is generally agreed that the preferred interdecadal time scale, if there is one, originates from ocean dynamics in the pacific.
What factors influence the growth and survival of microorganisms in aqueous systems?
the habitats of microorganisms in aqueous systems, such as anaerobic digesters, are very diverse, and their survival and growth depend on factors such as temperature, nutrient availability and stratification
How can these microorganisms overcome the instability of their environment?
the organisms often overcome the instability of the environment where they live by attachment to a surface
Do bacteria have attachment capability?
the attachment capability of bacteria is impressive. their superficial structures seem to allow some form of control of the adhesion, while their microscopic dimensions guarantee that they are hardly subjected to the shearing forces that happen naturally in the medium. t
the habitats of microorganisms in aqueous systems, such as anaerobic digesters, are very diverse, and their survival and growth depend on factors such as temperature, nutrient availability and stratification. the organisms often overcome the instability of the environment where they live by attachment to a surface. the attachment capability of bacteria is impressive. their superficial structures seem to allow some form of control of the adhesion, while their microscopic dimensions guarantee that they are hardly subjected to the shearing forces that happen naturally in the medium. this form of immobilisation of microorganisms, through attachment, is possible on fixed surfaces, such as in anaerobic processes with a stationary bed (e.g. anaerobic filter), or on moving surfaces, such as in anaerobic processes of expanded and fluidised beds. figure 25.1 illustrates the biofilm formation attached to a support medium.
Describe the term parameter uncertainty.
parameter uncertainty i.e. uncertainty in the parameters that control the parameterized physical processes in climate models
Describe the term structural uncertainties.
structural uncertainties i.e. uncertainties in choices made when coding the resolved processes
What coding may be used to calculate the tendencies for transfer of electromagnetic radiation through the atmosphere quite accurately?
for some processes, such as the transfer of electromagnetic radiation through the atmosphere, it is possible to calculate the tendencies quite accurately using line-by-line radiation codes
it is common to sub-divide model uncertainty further and consider parameter uncertainty i.e. uncertainty in the parameters that control the parameterized physical processes in climate models and structural uncertainties i.e. uncertainties in choices made when coding the resolved processes (although we note that the two are inexorably linked). given resolved (or large-scale) variables such as temperature and humidity at any time, sub-grid-scale parameterization schemes calculate the impact of unresolved processes such as clouds and give back a partial time derivative (or tendency) for the large-scale fields. for some processes, such as the transfer of electromagnetic radiation through the atmosphere, it is possible to calculate the tendencies quite accurately using line-by-line radiation codes. however, owing to computational constraints, the line-by-line codes have to be approximated, so that they do not take an excessive amount of the total processing time for the whole model. other processes like turbulent energy transport are much less well understood and are highly situation-dependent, meaning that their 1961 ensembles and probabilities
What does the author believe is missing from analyses of climate models?
but to compensate for the epistemological slippage i have described in this article it is necessary to balance these reductionist pathways to knowing the future with other ways of envisioning the future. the "contrast, connections and context" to which stephen pyne refers must be created by putting society back into the future
When predicting the future, what is the role of human society, according to the author?
since it is at least possible - if not indeed likely that human creativity, imagination and ingenuity will create radically different social, cultural and political worlds in the future than exist today, greater effort should be made to represent these possibilities in any analysis about the significance of future climate change
In this passage, what does the word "reductionism" describe?
if reductionism is a limited form of reasoning for interpreting the past, then climate reductionism is even more emasculated with regard to telling the future. the epistemological pathways offered by climate models and their derived analyses are only one way of believing what the future may hold. they have validity; and they have relevance. but to compensate for the epistemological slippage i have described in this article it is necessary to balance these reductionist pathways to knowing the future with other ways of envisioning the future
if reductionism is a limited form of reasoning for interpreting the past, then climate reductionism is even more emasculated with regard to telling the future. the epistemological pathways offered by climate models and their derived analyses are only one way of believing what the future may hold. they have validity; and they have relevance. but to compensate for the epistemological slippage i have described in this article it is necessary to balance these reductionist pathways to knowing the future with other ways of envisioning the future. the "contrast, connections and context" to which stephen pyne refers must be created by putting society back into the future. since it is at least possible - if not indeed likely that human creativity, imagination and ingenuity will create radically different social, cultural and political worlds in the future than exist today, greater effort should be made to represent these possibilities in any analysis about the significance of future climate change. some of these futures may be better; some may be worse. but they will not be determined by climate, certainly
what are Facultative aerated lagoons used for?
facultative aerated lagoons (figure 15.1) are used when it is desired to have a predominantly aerobic system, more compact than facultative ponds or anaerobicfacultative ponds
what are pros and cons of Facultative aerated lagoons?
because of the of mechanisation, aerated lagoons are less simple in terms of maintenance and operation, compared with conventional facultative ponds. the reduction of the land requirements is therefore obtained with a certain increase in the operational level, besides the of energy consumption. overloaded conventional facultative ponds without area for expansion can be converted to facultative aerated lagoons by the inclusion of aerators
what are the main differences to the conventional facultative ponds?
the main difference with relation to the conventional facultative pond regards the form of oxygen supply. while in facultative ponds the oxygen is obtained from algal photosynthesis, in the case of facultative aerated lagoons the oxygen is supplied by aerators
facultative aerated lagoons (figure 15.1) are used when it is desired to have a predominantly aerobic system, more compact than facultative ponds or anaerobicfacultative ponds. the main difference with relation to the conventional facultative pond regards the form of oxygen supply. while in facultative ponds the oxygen is obtained from algal photosynthesis, in the case of facultative aerated lagoons the oxygen is supplied by aerators. because of the of mechanisation, aerated lagoons are less simple in terms of maintenance and operation, compared with conventional facultative ponds. the reduction of the land requirements is therefore obtained with a certain increase in the operational level, besides the of energy consumption. overloaded conventional facultative ponds without area for expansion can be converted to facultative aerated lagoons by the inclusion of aerators. however, it is interesting to foresee this possibility in the design period itself, as part of the staging of the plant, so that a pond depth compatible with the future aeration equipment is selected and that concrete protecting plates can be placed at the bottom of the pond, underneath the future aerators.
Will the climate change have similar effect on all types of fish fauna?
most alien fishes will suffer much less from climate change but still show some decline, as streams and reservoirs dry up under prolonged drought. some species (e.g., goldfish, carassius auratus ), however, are likely to increase in both abundance and range. obviously, responses will vary among the two groups; a few natives will also thrive in many streams while some aliens will decline considerably
What are the findings of the study made?
1. our method was successful at indicating relative vulnerability of different california fish species to extinction in relations to climate change, as well as showing the susceptibility of the entire native fish fauna to climate change the strength of the method is that it is repeatable by other fish biologists, with scores becoming more reliable as new information is acquired. 2. fishes with low baseline vulnerability scores, usually because of limited distribution or specialized habitat requirements, are also most likely to have low climate change vulnerability scores. most fishes with low scores are listed by state or federal agencies as endangered, threatened, or special concern species (table s1). some of this baseline vulnerability can be attributed
predicted climate change effects on freshwater environments in california will dramatically change the fish fauna. principally, most native fishes will become more restricted in their distributions and many will ultimately be driven to extinction if present trends continue. in contrast, most alien fishes will suffer much less from climate change but still show some decline, as streams and reservoirs dry up under prolonged drought. some species (e.g., goldfish, carassius auratus ), however, are likely to increase in both abundance and range. obviously, responses will vary among the two groups; a few natives will also thrive in many streams while some aliens will decline considerably. beyond these broad conclusions, our study has the following findings: 1. our method was successful at indicating relative vulnerability of different california fish species to extinction in relations to climate change, as well as showing the susceptibility of the entire native fish fauna to climate change the strength of the method is that it is repeatable by other fish biologists, with scores becoming more reliable as new information is acquired. 2. fishes with low baseline vulnerability scores, usually because of limited distribution or specialized habitat requirements, are also most likely to have low climate change vulnerability scores. most fishes with low scores are listed by state or federal agencies as endangered, threatened, or special concern species (table s1). some of this baseline vulnerability can be attributed
what is the definition of climate projection
by definition, climate projection downscaling is the process of transferring general circulation model (gcm) output to a finer spatial scale that is more meaningful for analyzing local and regional climate conditions
Can the effect of large-scale resource changes on the local surface climate be resolved?
the effect of large-scale feature changes on local surface climate cannot be resolved in the current generation of gcms
What anthropogenic global climate change would lead to changes?
anthropogenic global climate change would lead to changes in large-scale atmospheric features, such as the tropical "hadley cell" atmospheric circulation and the wintertime climatological storm tracks in the middle latitudes
the spatial scale of climate model output is too coarse for regional studies on water resources response (maurer and others, 2007). by definition, climate projection downscaling is the process of transferring general circulation model (gcm) output to a finer spatial scale that is more meaningful for analyzing local and regional climate conditions. downscaling is justified, at least in principle. anthropogenic global climate change would lead to changes in large-scale atmospheric features, such as the tropical "hadley cell" atmospheric circulation and the wintertime climatological storm tracks in the middle latitudes. however, the effect of large-scale feature changes on local surface climate cannot be resolved in the current generation of gcms, which introduces the need for downscaling.
What is one benefit of an environmental frame?
one benefit of an environmental frame is that it shifts focus from medical to public health approaches
What kind of treatment has been developed to help childhood obesity?
the treatment has been essentially a child version of adult cognitive-behavioral treatments
one benefit of an environmental frame is that it shifts focus from medical to public health approaches. the medical model frames childhood obesity as a disease or illness that strikes individuals due to internal and external causes, while the other frames it as a disease that strikes a population as a consequence of individual vulnerability combined with exposure to environmental elements. as listed in table 1, the model chosen has implications for determining the extent of the problem, its etiology, and deciding who is responsible for responding to the problem and what that response should include. medical model when viewed within the medical model, childhood obesity is an individual child's physical problem identified by a health professional and requiring individual treatment. the severity of the problem for each individual is assessed, and treatments are used to meet the needs of the individual. resources are allocated to improve identification and treatment of the problem, particularly research on improving the success of clinical services. historically, the medical model approach has been used to address childhood obesity. researchers and clinicians have developed individual and family treatments for childhood obesity. the treatment has been essentially a child version of adult cognitive-behavioral treatments. the latter is designed to teach individuals how to change their eating and exercise behaviors through self-monitoring, identifying and challenging dysfunctional thought patterns, learning problem solving skills, and addressing interpersonal stressors that lead to overeating.52even many interventions that are delivered to large numbers of children, for example through schools, involve education on how one can take responsibility for making healthier food choices and increasing physical activity.53 people are encouraged
What did authors concluded?
the authors conclude by proposing constructive pathways for future efforts aimed at creating societies more resilient to climate change and other global environmental hazards
the paper that follows seeks to summarize briefly some of the major findings emerging from assessments of the potential impacts of ongoing and future climate change. in the spring of 2001, the stockholm environment institute proposed to the swedish international development cooperation agency (sida) that an overview of major vulnerability issues involved with climate change might be useful to a variety of users and interested persons. in this review, the authors accord particular attention to people and regions at highest risk to such changes, particularly those in developing countries. in doing so, they draw heavily upon the three assessments of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) as well as related work undertaken by independent scholars and assessors. it is important to note that although the authors undertook no original research, they have addressed the types of knowledge and approaches required for identifying and assessing highly vulnerable groups and ecosystems. the review argues that vulnerability assessment is essential for a full analysis of climatechange impacts and for delineating social-justice issues that require attention in any successful international climate-change regime. the importance of complementing emissions reduction with strategies aimed at reducing human vulnerabilities, enlarging coping resources and adaptive capacity, and strengthening resilience is a recurrent theme. the authors conclude by proposing constructive pathways for future efforts aimed at creating societies more resilient to climate change and other global environmental hazards.
what represents the extent to which employees experience that the internal functioning of the organization?
service climate represents the extent to which employees experience that the internal functioning of the organization
what are the three names mentioned on climate research?
tannenbaum, kavanagh, 1995), justice climate (naumann bennett, 2000; liao rupp, 2005) and implementation climate (klein, conn, sorra, 2001
what refers specifically to customer service and customer service quality?
service climate refers specifically to customer service and customer service quality
tannenbaum, kavanagh, 1995), justice climate (naumann bennett, 2000; liao rupp, 2005) and implementation climate (klein, conn, sorra, 2001). climate research in the service sector has been dominated by the service climate construct which encompasses "employee perceptions of the practices, procedures, and behaviors that get rewarded, supported, and expected with regard to customer service and customer service quality" (schneider et al. 1998: 151). service climate represents the extent to which employees experience that the internal functioning of the organization is focused on attaining high service quality (schneider white, 2004). a favorable service climate has been shown to stimulate service employees' engagement in role-prescribed service behaviors (e.g., schneider, 1990; liao chuang, 2004). however, the unique characteristics of pcsp, including self-starting, long-term oriented and persistent behavior, imply that a climate which is specifically targeted towards supporting and rewarding this particular type of performance will possess a stronger theoretical linkage to proactive service performance than general service climate does. in the current study, consistent with our focus on the pcsp of front-line service employees, we propose a new climate construct, namely, initiative climate which is an organizational climate with a specific referent for employee initiative (baer frese, 2003; fay, luhrmann, kohl, 2004). our conceptualization of initiative climate focuses on employee shared perceptions of the extent to which self-starting, change-oriented, long-term oriented and persistent behavior is encouraged and rewarded by management. initiative climate differs from service climate in two important ways. first, it has a proactive component in that it refers to self-starting, change-oriented, long-term oriented and persistent behavior. second, whereas service climate refers specifically to customer service and customer service quality, initiative climate addresses the proactive execution of work behaviors in general. initiative climate also differs from innovation climate (anderson initiative climate, self-efficacy and pcsp 8
Who writes the law, the standard and the building regulations
in a system where the powerful air conditioning industry all but writes the laws, the standards and the building regulations
According to the passage you just read, what should be investigated?
with so much riding on the need to change the direction of the trends in building performance the rather scandalous truth is that the increasingly poor energy performance in buildings around the world is actually being promoted by laws in the uk, the usa and other countries in a system where the powerful air conditioning industry all but writes the laws, the standards and the building regulations. how this arose should be investigated
What is the passage's main agenda
so much riding on the need to change the direction of the trends in building performance the rather scandalous truth is that the increasingly poor energy performance in buildings around the world is actually being promoted by laws in the uk, the usa and other countries in a system where the powerful air conditioning industry all but writes the laws, the standards and the building regulations. how this arose should be investigated and why it is allowed to continue urgently reviewed. it is an example of how those who are supposed to be protecting the public from excessive environmental impacts in the building sector are actually adding to them. more free ebooks http://fast-file.blogspot.com
with so much riding on the need to change the direction of the trends in building performance the rather scandalous truth is that the increasingly poor energy performance in buildings around the world is actually being promoted by laws in the uk, the usa and other countries in a system where the powerful air conditioning industry all but writes the laws, the standards and the building regulations. how this arose should be investigated and why it is allowed to continue urgently reviewed. it is an example of how those who are supposed to be protecting the public from excessive environmental impacts in the building sector are actually adding to them. more free ebooks http://fast-file.blogspot.com
What is the potential importance of future stratospheric gases?
the potential importance of future stratospheric mean changes driven by increased greenhouse gases for surface climate change in the northern extratropics has been illustrated by many studies including the recent one by scaife et al. [2012]. while previous works addressed the role of stratospheric change with individual models, scaife et al. included a multimodel intercomparison of coupled model intercomparison project-phase 3 (cmip3) and chemistry climate model validation (ccmval) simulations
What is the role of stratospheric change ?
while previous works addressed the role of stratospheric change with individual models, scaife et al. included a multimodel intercomparison of coupled model intercomparison project-phase 3 (cmip3) and chemistry climate model validation (ccmval) simulations
What is CCMV models?
the ccmval models sparc ccmval 2010] extend higher in the atmosphere to include the full extent of the stratosphere, in contrast to the cmip3 models cordero and de forster 2006]. the scaife et al. [2012] results, manzini et al. (c)2014. american geophysical union. all rights reserved. 1
the potential importance of future stratospheric mean changes driven by increased greenhouse gases for surface climate change in the northern extratropics has been illustrated by many studies including the recent one by scaife et al. [2012]. while previous works addressed the role of stratospheric change with individual models, scaife et al. included a multimodel intercomparison of coupled model intercomparison project-phase 3 (cmip3) and chemistry climate model validation (ccmval) simulations. from their intercomparisons, they deduced that changes in the stratospheric circulation have the effect of substantially reducing projected changes in sea level pressure (slp) both in the arctic and at midlatitudes in winter, with potentially large impacts on the projected frequency of extreme winter weather events in the north atlantic-european region. the ccmval models sparc ccmval 2010] extend higher in the atmosphere to include the full extent of the stratosphere, in contrast to the cmip3 models cordero and de forster 2006]. the scaife et al. [2012] results, manzini et al. (c)2014. american geophysical union. all rights reserved. 1
Expansion of AOGCMs ?
atmosphere-ocean general circulation models
Example of AOGCMs ?
the alps, the mediterranean, scandinavia
Example of high frequency temporal scales ?
precipitation frequency and intensity, surface wind variability
projections of future climate change from numerical models have existed for three decades, but these remain deficient both in regional detail and in the characterisation of their uncertainty. the assessment of potential regional impacts of climate change has, to date, generally relied on data from global atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (aogcms), which do not resolve spatial scales of less than ~300km (mearns et al. 2001). such aogcms do not provide information on the spatial structure of temperature and precipitation in areas of complex topography and land use distribution e.g. the alps, the mediterranean, scandinavia). their depiction of regional and local atmospheric circulations e.g. narrow jet cores, mesoscale convective systems, sea-breeze type circulations) and representation of processes at high frequency temporal scales e.g. precipitation frequency and intensity, surface wind variability) are likewise insufficient.
on which burden sharing based on?
burden sharing based on the polluter-pays principle depends crucially on the assumed growth of emissions in the respective regions as well as on the considered time horizon
What they, Rive et al. (2006) show about sensitivity of HR burden sharing
they show how sensitive hr burden sharing is to the choice of the start and the end year for considering emissions as well as to the selection of the indicator used to attribute responsibility to the respective countries or groups of countries (e.g., contributions to temperature change vs. cumulative emissions
burden sharing based on the polluter-pays principle depends crucially on the assumed growth of emissions in the respective regions as well as on the considered time horizon. rive et al. (2006) provide a detailed discussion and simulations on burden sharing based on historical responsibility (hr) in a dynamic setting. in particular, they show how sensitive hr burden sharing is to the choice of the start and the end year for considering emissions as well as to the selection of the indicator used to attribute responsibility to the respective countries or groups of countries (e.g., contributions to temperature change vs. cumulative emissions).
What is SS plants ?
ss plants than in the ms and c plants. also, ss plants had the largest vessel densities and the thickest vessel walls. there was no significant difference in the stem area occupied by vessels (av) between the plant sets
Is P50 correlated with wood density?
p50 was not correlated with wood density
how  P50 was positively correlated with vessel ?
p50 was positively correlated with vessel diameter and negatively correlated with vessel wall thickness (fig. 4). the plants that were most resistant to cavitation also had the highest values of (t/b )2
ss plants than in the ms and c plants. also, ss plants had the largest vessel densities and the thickest vessel walls. there was no significant difference in the stem area occupied by vessels (av) between the plant sets. the correlation between vulnerability to cavitation and anatomical traits was tested. fig. 4 shows that the p50 was not correlated with wood density. also, the linear regression between p50 and wood density values for each plant was not significant (r 0 351 and p 0 1189). on the other hand, p50 was positively correlated with vessel diameter and negatively correlated with vessel wall thickness (fig. 4). the plants that were most resistant to cavitation also had the highest values of (t/b )2.
We calculated several what
we calculated several metrics
Predicted local what
predicted local persistenc
we calculated several metrics to assess reasons for possible habitat persistence at the local scale. predicted local persistence could result from differences in the elevation ranges represented in 10  100cells or from the divergence between the estimates of climatic conditions at the two scales. in the first step, we examined the temperature distribution of the 25 m  25 m cells within each 10  100cell. we then controlled whether a relationship existed between the persistence coefficient and (i) the percent overlay between the study area and the 10  100cells and (ii) the minimum, mean, maximum elevation, and range of elevation of 25 m  25 m cells within the 10  100cell and study area (i.e. the intersection). in the second step, we measured for each 10  100
What does polling data indicate about climate change in the US?
polling data indicate that the vast majority of u.s. residents believe climate change is happening
How effective are knowledge changes to be without structural changes?
likely to be ineffective, except among those who are already strongly motivated
What does research claim on the position that as long as people know climate change is the cause and fossil fuel use reduction is the best way to prevent future climate change, that additional knowledge is unnecessary?
the limited research on this position, however, is unclear
although polling data indicate that the vast majority of u.s. residents believe climate change is happening, many do not understand the science underlying the phenomenon (e.g., there is a persistent erroneous belief that the hole in the ozone is letting in too much heat),77the human causes of climate change, or the scientific consensus on this point.63clearly, there is a great deal that could be taught: the science, the potential consequences, the contribution of people's actions to the problem, the changes people can make both to mitigate and adapt, and the skills needed to make these changes. a few of these issues are addressed below. it should be noted, however, that in the absence of structural changes that make the promoted behaviors considerably easier, knowledge changes are likely to be ineffective, except among those who are already strongly motivated. improving people's understanding of the science. the argument can be made that so long as people know that climate change is dangerous, and they understand that reducing fossil fuel use is the most viable means for preventing further climate change, a full understanding of the physical causes and mechanisms of climate change is unnecessary. the limited research on this position, however, is unclear. bord and colleagues80
What provides qualitative rules for adjusting the local mean snow density upward or downward depending on wind, exposure, thaws, and the day of the year?
a handbook for the nrcs field surveyors (davis et al. 1970) provides qualitative rules for adjusting the local mean snow density upward or downward depending on wind, exposure, thaws, and the day of the year
What is required to estimate rb using snow models that solve the surface energy balance and evolve a snowpack layer by layer?
snow models that solve the surface energy balance and evolve a snowpack layer by layer (brun et al. 1989; liston and elder 2006; lehning et al. 2006), but these models require extensive meteorological input as well as the calculation of settlement of individual snow layers
Why are snow models that solve the surface energy balance difficult to apply to large basins and regions?
they tend to be difficult to apply to large basins and regions because of their heavy data and computational demands
the covariance between depth and bulk density, however, tends to be negligible for a snow cover less than 80 cm deep (pomeroy and gray 1995), and at greater depths is only about 2.5% of swe (data from this study). the error in neglecting c is therefore typically smaller than other potential error sources in eqs. (1) or (2), so for simplicity, c is ignored. despite the fact that estimating rb using eq. (1) makes it possible to determine swe from depth, there have been relatively few formal attempts to do so. a handbook for the nrcs field surveyors (davis et al. 1970) provides qualitative rules for adjusting the local mean snow density upward or downward depending on wind, exposure, thaws, and the day of the year. wilks and mckay (1996) developed a power-law version of eq. (1) with the bulk density term (their ''pseudodensity'') varying with climate. more recently, estimates of rb have been produced using snow models that solve the surface energy balance and evolve a snowpack layer by layer (brun et al. 1989; liston and elder 2006; lehning et al. 2006), but these models require extensive meteorological input as well as the calculation of settlement of individual snow layers. they tend to be difficult to apply to large basins and regions because of their heavy data and computational demands.
What is shown in Figure 8?
in figure 8a the curve numbers recalculated from the austrian rainfall and runoff data are plotted
What is the dominant soil type in Austria?
the dominant soil type is rendzina
How do we analyze in more detail?
to analyze this in more detail, the seasonal variability of precipitation, actual evaporation, soil moisture, streamflow and runoff coefficients is calculated for each region
the u.s. soil conservation service soil conservation service 1972] proposed l 0.2, which is also adopted in the german guidelines deutscher verband fu"r wasserwirtschaft und kulturbau 1985]. maniak [1988, p. 330] argue, that this value is too high for catchment in central europe and recommend a value of l 0.05. the austrian data shows that indeed curve number based on l 0.05 could be better fitted to the observed data. in figure 8a the curve numbers recalculated from the austrian rainfall and runoff data are plotted. for comparison the curve numbers estimated from soil type and land use data are plotted in figure 8b. the two patterns are quite different. the highest back-calculated curve numbers are found for the northern rim of the high alps (northern alpine region). this is the wettest region in austria. orographic enhancement of northwesterly airflows often results in long and persistent rainfall. the catchments tend to be wet and hence runoff coefficients are high. in contrast, low curve numbers are estimated from soil type and land use in that region. the dominant soil type is rendzina, which is associated with a medium infiltration capacity international society of soil science 1986] and the region is mainly forested. because of the assumed high infiltration capacity of forest, the soil conservation service curve number method assigns low curve numbers to the catchments in that region. in the dry lower parts of eastern austria, the runoff coefficients estimated from soil type and land use are much higher than those back-calculated from observed data. the high correlation of the statistical moments of the event runoff coefficients to climatic indicators and the low correlation to indicators of geology, land use, soil types and the scs curve numbers suggest that climate and antecedent soil moisture is a major control on runoff generation in the catchments analyzed here. climate and antecedent soil moisture vary within the year and hence it is expected that runoff coefficients will also vary within the year. to analyze this in more detail, the seasonal variability of precipitation, actual evaporation, soil moisture, streamflow and runoff coefficients is calculated for each region. note that the seasonal variability of precipitation, actual evaporation, soil moisture and streamflow are obtained from simulations of the daily catchment water balance parajka et al. 2005], while the seasonal behavior of runoff coefficients is obtained from the event analysis. the daily soil moisture state simulated by the model is, of course, dependent on the maximum storage capacity of the soils, which is a calibrated figure 5. statistical moments of event runoff coefficients plotted against the long-term ratio of actual evaporation to precipitation (aet/p). each point represents a catchment.
Who are elgible for to saying thanks to conduct research in the Republic of Mexico?
we wish to thank the coronado and gila national forests for permission to collect in national forest lands, as well as the mexican secretary of the environment and natural resources (semarnat) and the mexican secretary of external relations for permission to conduct research in the republic of mexico (permit nos dan03200, doo-022916
Who are the indebted persons? whether people also included?
we are indebted to the many people who helped in the completion of the field and laboratory research for this project, particularly molly moore, nelia padilla, dylan and migue wilmsen, and derrick zwickl
Who are financially helped to complete this project?
we also wish to thank drs olle pellmyr, naomi pierce, and john wakeley, and the members of the farrell laboratory for helpful comments on this manuscript, and drs t. r. van devender and t. burgess for useful discussion. this project was funded in part by the oeb student research grant, putnam expedition grant to the mcz, and by an nsf doctoral dissertation improvement grant to c. smith (award number deb-0073291); we gratefully acknowledge this financial support
we wish to thank the coronado and gila national forests for permission to collect in national forest lands, as well as the mexican secretary of the environment and natural resources (semarnat) and the mexican secretary of external relations for permission to conduct research in the republic of mexico (permit nos dan03200, doo-022916). we are indebted to the many people who helped in the completion of the field and laboratory research for this project, particularly molly moore, nelia padilla, dylan and migue wilmsen, and derrick zwickl. we also wish to thank drs olle pellmyr, naomi pierce, and john wakeley, and the members of the farrell laboratory for helpful comments on this manuscript, and drs t. r. van devender and t. burgess for useful discussion. this project was funded in part by the oeb student research grant, putnam expedition grant to the mcz, and by an nsf doctoral dissertation improvement grant to c. smith (award number deb-0073291); we gratefully acknowledge this financial support.
What is the perspective about climate changes?
climate change can no longer be considered simply an environmental or developmental issue
What is the impact of climate change in this study?
climate change impacts related to heat stress have often been examined
Why is climate change unavoidable?
coping with climate change (adaptation) is already unavoidable due to past emissions of greenhouse gases
industrial health 2013, 51 **-** climate change can no longer be considered simply an environmental or developmental issue as it puts at risk the protection of human health and well-being. in addition, while forecasts exist on the economic impact of climate change, the social impact on enterprises and workers, on employment and income, on working conditions, and on many other social dimensions is considerably less understood. coping with climate change (adaptation) is already unavoidable due to past emissions of greenhouse gases. thus, it is important to come up with solutions to reduce the vulnerability of workers and enterprises to the negative effects of climate change and to enhance the capacity at the individual and society levels to adapt, respond to and prepare for climate change. this literature review concentrates on the effects of heat stress on the working population with a focus on developing countries in relation to climate change. so far, climate change impacts related to heat stress have often been examined in relation to heat wave-mediated effects on the general population, but recognition is lacking that climate change may exacerbate occupational heat-related risks5).
What is the study based on?
strong evidence for carry-over effects originating from winter rainfall that influenced arrival dates and the number of young fledged in the endangered kirtland's warbler
What does the study indicate about males?
young males arrived in northern breeding areas later following winters with less march rainfall in the bahamas, and males of all ages experienced reduced reproductive success following drier winters
What did the wintering and breeding areas allow?
the small and highly connected wintering and breeding areas of this species allowed us to use latewinter rainfall estimates from a more geographically accurate wintering area
we found strong evidence for carry-over effects originating from winter rainfall that influenced arrival dates and the number of young fledged in the endangered kirtland's warbler. this is the first longitudinal study to document a relationship between winter rainfall, spring arrival dates, and reproductive success of individual migratory birds. young males arrived in northern breeding areas later following winters with less march rainfall in the bahamas, and males of all ages experienced reduced reproductive success following drier winters. our ability to test the response of the same individual males to variation in winter rainfall across multiple years allowed us to account for variation due to individual quality. we also incorporated full reproductive histories of banded individuals, including second nests and nests with second females (polygyny), providing the most accurate measure of reproductive success per male possible in the absence of information on extrapair paternity. in addition, the small and highly connected wintering and breeding areas of this species allowed us to use latewinter rainfall estimates from a more geographically accurate wintering area. we were able to better isolate the winter conditions that our study population experienced, unlike other studies that must estimate winter locality and associated weather conditions across a large winter range. the relationship between march rainfall and arrival time was much stronger for sy than for asy males (fig. 3a), with younger males delaying arrival by 1.4 days for every 1-cm reduction in precipitation. two non-mutually exclusive explanations for this pattern are possible. first, asy males may be socially dominant, and
What are the challenges of new nuclear capacity?
the cost of building the new stations, and the fact that there is a chronic shortage of skilled labour to build the plants add to the reasons why no firm plans have been made for when and where the first new station will be built. added to this, nuclear power is extremely expensive to build, there are real concerns about the availability of uranium over time, there is growing concern about selling our energy security to foreign companies like edf, which is largely owned by the french government, and it is difficult to see exactly when they will actually be built
Is Scotland building new nuclear capacity?
alex salmond, the first minister of scotland, has said that scotland will not need or be building any new nuclear capacity and will rely instead on renewables to meet the growing demand in energy
Will Scotland use renewables instead of new nuclear capacity?
alex salmond, the first minister of scotland, has said that scotland will not need or be building any new nuclear capacity and will rely instead on renewables to meet the growing demand in energy
fixed prices for carbon that ensured that gas and oil fired stations were penalized for their carbon emissions, making their energy outputs more expensive and so favouring nuclear energy. <s121>* a ceiling on the costs private companies would have to pay to dismantle reactors, so capping the liability of private companies and exposing the tax payers to unlimited liability for nuclear clean-up in perpetuity. the cost of building the new stations, and the fact that there is a chronic shortage of skilled labour to build the plants add to the reasons why no firm plans have been made for when and where the first new station will be built. added to this, nuclear power is extremely expensive to build, there are real concerns about the availability of uranium over time, there is growing concern about selling our energy security to foreign companies like edf, which is largely owned by the french government, and it is difficult to see exactly when they will actually be built. alex salmond, the first minister of scotland, has said that scotland will not need or be building any new nuclear capacity and will rely instead on renewables to meet the growing demand in energy.
What does Nprof represent in the bin?
where nprof is the number of profiles in the bin
What is shown in Figure 2 a?
the seasonal champ dry temperature climatology is shown in fig. 2 a, the corresponding ecmwf climatology, based on the full 3-d
What is represented in figure 2
dry temperature results for an example season figure 2 displays different champ climatology products for a typical season, the northern winter season december- january-february (djf) 2003/2004, resulting from the ro event distribution shown in fig. 1
ttrue dryjkld z th d 5 th where nprof is the number of profiles in the bin, the summation on the right hand side is over all nk longitude and nu latitude grid points in the bin and over all nt time layers within the selected time interval (month or season), ngrid nk nu nt. cosine weighting (eq. 4 and decrease of ensemble members with decreasing height (sect. 2.3 are taken into account but are not explicitly written in eq. 5 for the sake of simplicity. 3.3 dry temperature results for an example season figure 2 displays different champ climatology products for a typical season, the northern winter season december- january-february (djf) 2003/2004, resulting from the ro event distribution shown in fig. 1 the seasonal champ dry temperature climatology is shown in fig. 2 a, the corresponding ecmwf climatology, based on the full 3-d
What do we call attention to?
we call attention to the importance of nesting our understanding of individual environmental cognition and behaviour into larger social, cultural and environmental contexts
Apart from the role of climate monitoring, what else is considered?
this includes considering the role of climate monitoring, forecasting and dissemination systems that are framing for society and policy makers the connections between the climate change and the fate of the amazon
What does several process mediate?
several processes mediate the perception of change in environment and climate and differ at individual, household, community and regional scales
we call attention to the importance of nesting our understanding of individual environmental cognition and behaviour into larger social, cultural and environmental contexts. this includes considering the role of climate monitoring, forecasting and dissemination systems that are framing for society and policy makers the connections between the climate change and the fate of the amazon. several processes mediate the perception of change in environment and climate and differ at individual, household, community and regional scales. perhaps the most important among them are various social conditions that differentiate between individuals and communities in their adaptability to climatic change, which, in the amazon, require new approaches to understanding adaptation.
who was first proposed to explain the one lakh years periodicity of glacial cycles by benzi et al ?
stochastic resonance (sr) was first proposed to explain the 100 000 yr periodicity of glacial cycles by benzi et al
what are the ocean is zonally integrated for three main basins ?
atlantic, pacific, and indian ocean
How to resolved global geographic grid atmosphere ?
the atmosphere is resolved on a grid of 10+-in latitude and 51+-in longitude and includes a planetary boundary layer and a free atmosphere
stochastic resonance (sr) was first proposed to explain the 100 000 yr periodicity of glacial cycles by benzi et al. however, this original idea has not been supported by subsequent evidence. meanwhile, the concept of stochastic resonance has found numerous applications in physics, chemistry, the biomedical sciences, etc. recently, there appear stochastic resonance applications to climate. in an analysis of the greenland ice core record (fig. 1), alley et al. found that the statistical properties of abrupt warmings (dansgaard-oeschger events, in short do events) are consistent with stochastic resonance, but inconsistent with the more straightforward stochastic mechanisms such as a simple white-noise response. the waiting times between consecutive do events cluster around 1500 yr and, with decreasing probability, 3000 and 4500 yr. the small sample makes more detailed conclusions from the greenland data set difficult. the physical mechanism of do events is not yet fully understood. we have recently proposed a mechanism based on numerical simulations with a coupled oceanatmosphere climate model which shows encouraging agreement with the available paleoclimatic data, in that the key features of these events are reproduced: the threephase time evolution, the spatial pattern centered on the north atlantic, and the relative phasing of the antarctic response. the mechanism is based on a stability analysis of the atlantic ocean circulation in the glacial climate. in the model, which produces a rather realistic simulation of glacial climate the atlantic ocean circulation possesses a stable and a weakly unstable (i.e., lasting several hundred yr before it spontaneously ends) circulation mode in glacial conditions (see fig. 2). we also found a second unstable mode in which north atlantic deep water formation shuts down altogether, but this is accessible only through a large freshwater input into the atlantic, e.g., a heinrich event [8,9], and is not relevant here. physically, the glacial atlantic is thus an excitable system, in which a suitable perturbation can trigger a temporary state transition to the unstable circulation mode. (for warm climates like the present, in contrast, the model climate is bistable: as in most other models there are two stable solutions which correspond to the two unstable glacial circulation modes.) we proposed that do events are such a temporary state transition, triggered by a small perturbation to the salinity balance of the northern north atlantic, which causes a transient jump of the climate from the stable cold (or stadial) mode to the unstable warm (or interstadial) mode. this corresponds to a startup of convection in the nordic seas and a sudden incursion of the warm north atlantic current into this area (see fig. 2). such an excitable system can be subject to coherence resonance and stochastic resonance a well-studied example is the fitzhughnagumo system here we present a study of this mechanism in our climate model. the model (described in detail in is a global climate model of intermediate complexity and includes submodels for atmosphere, ocean (including sea ice), and land surface. it contains a dozen independent prognostic variables and  102diagnostic variables computed on a global geographical grid. the atmosphere is resolved on a grid of 10+-in latitude and 51+-in longitude and includes a planetary boundary layer and a free atmosphere. the ocean is zonally integrated for the three main basins (atlantic, pacific, and indian ocean) and resolved
In which areas trend analysis should be conducted?
trend analysis should also be conducted over large areas affected by similar weather systems
What is the impact over ignoring spatial correlation?
douglas and others (2000) demonstrate that ignoring spatial correlation can lead to erroneous conclusions about the existence of regional trends in low flows and high flows
What is the importance of considering spatial correlation?
vogel and others (2001) also note the importance of considering spatial correlation in an analysis of record-breaking floods. it is important to try to understand the drivers behind the trends in order to understand whether the trend is likely to persist, plateau, or reverse
trend analysis should also be conducted over large areas affected by similar weather systems. however, the analysis must be done carefully to consider cross-correlation among the stations in a region. douglas and others (2000) demonstrate that ignoring spatial correlation can lead to erroneous conclusions about the existence of regional trends in low flows and high flows. vogel and others (2001) also note the importance of considering spatial correlation in an analysis of record-breaking floods. it is important to try to understand the drivers behind the trends in order to understand whether the trend is likely to persist, plateau, or reverse. for example, a trend towards box 2.2 key noaa monitoring networks for water resources management
What does Eq. (14) determine?
eq. (14), which determines the change in the productivity factor jres
What does the factor bres,l V 1) in Eq. (14) do?
the factor bres,l v 1) in eq. (14) dampens the learning-by-doing effect
What happens when Eq. (14) is integrated?
n the case of bres,l=1, learning-by-doing would only be determined by the cumulative resource extraction, as can be seen by integrating eq. (14
eq. (14), which determines the change in the productivity factor jres,l which depends on the ratio of actual resource extraction to initial resource extraction. the factor bres,l v 1) in eq. (14) dampens the learning-by-doing effect. in the case of bres,l=1, learning-by-doing would only be determined by the cumulative resource extraction, as can be seen by integrating eq. (14) in the case of bres,lb 1, energy production also depends on the time path of the extracted fossil fuels: a rapid increase in extraction induces a loss in productivity gains relative to the same increase in extraction spread over a longer time period. . jres l  1/4  jres l sres ljmax res l
What method is used to build aggregate opinion measures? Stimson's method
utilizing stimson ' s method of constructing aggregate opinion measures
How many separate survey data over a 9-year period? 74 survey data
utilizing stimson ' s method of constructing aggregate opinion measures, data from 74 separate surveys over a 9-year period
With regard to changes in levels of concern, how many factors have been examined?
we examine five factors that should account for changes in levels of concern
this paper conducts an empirical analysis of the factors affecting u.s. public concern about the threat of climate change between january 2002 and december 2010. utilizing stimson ' s method of constructing aggregate opinion measures, data from 74 separate surveys over a 9-year period are used to construct quarterly measures of public concern over global climate change. we examine five factors that should account for changes in levels of concern: 1) extreme weather events, 2) public access to accurate scientific information, 3) media coverage, 4) elite cues, and 5) movement/countermovement advocacy. a time-series analysis indicates that elite cues and structural economic factors have the largest effect on the level of public concern about climate change. while media coverage exerts an important influence, this coverage is itself largely a function of elite cues and economic factors. weather extremes have no effect on aggregate public opinion. promulgation of scientific information to the public on climate change has a minimal effect. the implication would seem to be that information-based science advocacy has had only a minor effect on public concern, while political mobilization by elites and advocacy groups is critical in influencing climate change concern. one of the earliest u.s. public opinion polls on global climate change was taken in july 1986, when the cambridge reports national omnibus survey asked individuals if they
What have large impacts on global mean temperature?
the changes in boundary conditions, including removal of ice sheets and replacement with vegetation, movement of continents, changes in ocean currents, and changes in aerosols, have large impacts on global mean temperature
What shows that the induced change is likely 1 degC
study of the high-latitude temperature change due to changing speci fi ed land ice (44) shows that the induced change is likely 1 degc
What can also be ascribed to changes in aerosol forcing?
a fraction of the offset can also be ascribed to changes in aerosol forcing
the offset between modern and early paleogene simulations shows that the changes in boundary conditions, including removal of ice sheets and replacement with vegetation, movement of continents, changes in ocean currents, and changes in aerosols, have large impacts on global mean temperature. some of these factors, such as changes in ice sheet distribution, might reasonably be called earth system feedbacks because they are internally determined as part of the climate system. other factors, such as continental position or ocean gateway changes, are nonradiative external forcings that do not arise as part of climate feedback. detailed analysis of the factors that sum to produce the modeled temperature offset of 5 degc fi nds that it is largely due to surface albedo differences (42). these arise not only in high latitudes, as a direct consequence of the speci fi ed changes in terrestrial ice, but in low latitudes. study of the high-latitude temperature change due to changing speci fi ed land ice (44) shows that the induced change is likely 1 degc, so that component is only a small fraction of the 5 degc offset. the decrease in tropical-to-subtropical albedo, which causes most of the temperature change, is due to increased early paleogene vegetation cover in present-day deserts (42). in a model with truly interactive ice and vegetation, these would rightfully be included within the de fi nition of ess to co2. a fraction of the offset can also be ascribed to changes in aerosol forcing. in our early paleogene simulations, direct aerosol forcing is greatly reduced by choice from modern conditions (indirect effects are not explicitly included in the model). comparison between the results of simulations using identical models and nearly identical boundary conditions but different treatments of aerosols (42) suggests that almost 2 degc of this offset can be explained by aerosol choices, which are necessarily poorly constrained. very little of the net temperature change between modern and early paleogene conditions is explained by paleogeography or recti fi cation between changes in meridional heat transports and global mean temperatures (42). these results are likely to be sensitive both to assumptions about vegetation that are poorly constrained by data and to model cloud feedbacks that are likely to be strongly modeldependent. we can conclude, however, that in this model at least,
What are the consequences of increase in the drought and desertification frequency and intensity?
drought and desertifi cation frequency and intensity will increase, causing health problems and also infl uencing population migration. droughts, especially in rural areas, have a tendency to aff ect migration into cities
Droughts, especially in rural areas, have a tendency to affect migration into cities. examine the consequences of the same?
droughts, especially in rural areas, have a tendency to aff ect migration into cities,1 increasing urbanisation and stressing the socioeconomic conditions already exacerbated by high population growth
drought and desertifi cation frequency and intensity will increase, causing health problems and also infl uencing population migration. droughts, especially in rural areas, have a tendency to aff ect migration into cities,1 increasing urbanisation and stressing the socioeconomic conditions already exacerbated by high population growth. it is estimated that 72% of the dwellers in african cities live in slums, which, having poor drainage facilities, are especially prone to fl ooding and ill health.87 action aid ran analyses of slum dwellers in six african cities and found intracity fl ooding and the consequence on hygiene and sanitation to be a major health concern.88
What method is used to reach a climatic equilibrium?
we employ an iterative method to reach a climatic equilibrium for conditions extremely different from those of today
Which two studies does this method mirror?
this method is akin to, but different than, those discussed by vavrus et al. [2000] and otto-bliesner et al. [submitted, j. clim
What is the focus of this study?
we begin in this way because eocene conditions (the focus of this study) are known well enough to characterize zonalannual mean ssts and some degree of seasonal variability, but not east-west sst variations
we employ an iterative method to reach a climatic equilibrium for conditions extremely different from those of today. this method is akin to, but different than, those discussed by vavrus et al. [2000] and otto-bliesner et al. [submitted, j. clim.]. below we outline the method to accelerate convergence of the deep ocean to an equilibrium state and briefly discuss results from the degraded present day case. (1) ccm and lsm are driven by fixed, zonally constant, ssts. for the degraded present case, the monthly varying fixed ssts are taken from the shea et al. [1990] dataset. we begin in this way because eocene conditions (the focus of this study) are known well enough to characterize zonalannual mean ssts and some degree of seasonal variability, but not east-west sst variations.
Are there cases when it would be desirable that the RCM would no longer cleanly downscale the parent global fields ?
however, there also are cases when this actually might be the desired effect. for example, in tropical regions, localised convection bears on larger scales
What can happen when a GCM and an RCM run simultaneously ?
if a gcm and an rcm are run simultaneously, the former can still provide boundary conditions to the latter, but now it can also receive information from the rcm within or downstream the regional domain, on any large-scale effect of local interactions
Are there many studies, and what do they suggest ?
such studies are so far very few, but do suggest the potential for improved global simulation even quite far away from the regional model domain
the latter could lead to undesired boundary effects or at least renders the results more difficult to interpret, as the rcm would no longer cleanly downscale the parent global fields. however, there also are cases when this actually might be the desired effect. for example, in tropical regions, localised convection bears on larger scales. if a gcm and an rcm are run simultaneously, the former can still provide boundary conditions to the latter, but now it can also receive information from the rcm within or downstream the regional domain, on any large-scale effect of local interactions. such studies are so far very few, but do suggest the potential for improved global simulation even quite far away from the regional model domain.25,26
In what year was climate modification for military purposes prohibited?
1977
What could cause a conflict between nations for using geoengineering?
conflict might arise if the world views a nation pursuing a climate modification program as placing its own interests above those of other nations
What was the climate scientist Stephen Schneider affirmation?
just imagine if we needed to do all this in 1900 and then the rest of the 20th century unfolded as it actually did
global security law research on geoengineering has its roots in military strategies developed for weather modification.24 both the united states and russia expressed significant interest (and invested significant funds) in researching weather modification for the purposes of military conflict. however, concern over this type of research led to the environmental modification convention (passed by the united nations in 1977), banning the use of weather modification for military or other hostile use. some commentators have suggested that geoengineering proposals might violate the terms of this treaty.25 while geoengineering's military history does not preclude benevolent uses, it is clear that climate modification schemes come with a potential for global conflict that should be taken seriously by policymakers. conflict might arise if the world views a nation pursuing a climate modification program as placing its own interests above those of other nations. it is even conceivable that a wealthy individual or private company might develop geoengineering technologies. but even if multilateral agreement could be reached, the potential for conflict would remain. what if, in the process of improving the climate of its own country, a government inadvertently affected the climate of another? what if one nation attributed a change in its climate to the geoengineering program of another, or even instigated a counter-program (to add greenhouse gases to the atmosphere) if the geoengineering program of another nation was felt to inadvertently affect it?26 picking apart the climatic effects that could be attributed to a rival nation's geoengineering from those which would have occurred naturally would be extremely difficult. the scope for conflict--even in the absence of intentional provocation--would be significant. while similar disputes might be envisioned over the uneven distribution of climatic changes from unabated greenhouse gas emissions, the act of geoengineering might well be considered more problematic than doing nothing. finally, even if conflict could be avoided in the initiation of geoengineering proposals, significant questions remain about whether the world's nations could create and maintain the centuries of global political stability that would be required to manage such industrial projects on a global scale. as the climate scientist stephen schneider succinctly puts it, "just imagine if we needed to do all this in 1900 and then the rest of the 20th century unfolded as it actually did!"27
What do these results provide evidence for?
collectively, these results provide evidence for significant and detrimental impacts of current climate trends on some subalpine flowers, mediated by their phenological responses to snowmelt
Are the impacts related to life history?
the impacts are variable among species, but are clearly related to life history, and have the potential to result in demographic changes in the populations due to lack of seed production
Does radiation frost cause damage to flowers?
radiation frost (exposure to the cold night sky) alone does not seem to cause significant damage to flowers
collectively, these results provide evidence for significant and detrimental impacts of current climate trends on some subalpine flowers, mediated by their phenological responses to snowmelt. the impacts are variable among species, but are clearly related to life history, and have the potential to result in demographic changes in the populations due to lack of seed production. all three of the three focal wildflower species are long-lived perennials, with life spans that can probably reach multiple decades (estimates based on excavation of roots and tagging of individual helianthella plants). this confers an element of stability to their presence in these plots, although there is evidence of turnover. for example, in one phenology plot (willow-meadow interface #2) delphinium barbeyi has only flowered in one year since 1988, and in another (willow-meadow interface #5) it has not flowered since 1993 (although there were aborted flower stalks in 1994). it first appeared in veratrum removal plot #1 in 1979 (possibly a consequence of the removal of veratrum tenuipetalum (melanthiaceae (liliaceae)) beginning in 1974). during this study, there has been an increase in the frequency of frost damage. for example, during the first 11 years of the helianthella study (1974-1984) there were two years with significant frost damage (inferred as years with almost no flowers), while there have only been two years without significant frost damage in the past 11 years (figs. 6 and 7). biologically, it makes sense that there might be a threshold level of snow that will delay flower bud development beyond the time when frost is still likely to occur. the data reported in this paper are consistent with the interpretation that the likelihood and degree of frost damage to flower buds are strongly affected by snowmelt date. radiation frost (exposure to the cold night sky) alone does not seem to cause significant damage to flowers at
Is interdisciplinarity important in the study of climate change impacts and adaptation?
the study of climate change impacts and adaptation requires integration of a wide range of disciplines, including the physical, biological and social sciences, and economics. although integrating these disciplines in the context of an uncertain future is challenging, it is necessary in order to obtain results that help individuals, communities, governments and industry deal with climate change
Why is it important to objectively define research priorities?
because climate change will affect every region of canada and directly or indirectly influence virtually all activities, there is a need to objectively define priorities for research
Should uncertainty regarding the nature of future climate change delay adaptation to climate change?
uncertainty regarding the nature of future climate change should not be a basis for delaying adaptation to climate change, but rather serve to focus on adaptation measures that help to address current vulnerabilities through expanding coping ranges and increasing adaptive capacity
the study of climate change impacts and adaptation requires integration of a wide range of disciplines, including the physical, biological and social sciences, and economics. although integrating these disciplines in the context of an uncertain future is challenging, it is necessary in order to obtain results that help individuals, communities, governments and industry deal with climate change. because climate change will affect every region of canada and directly or indirectly influence virtually all activities, there is a need to objectively define priorities for research. a framework for establishing priorities lies in the concept of vulnerability to climate change. an initial assessment of vulnerability is possible without detailed knowledge of future changes, based on analysis of sensitivity to past climate variability and the current capacity of the system to adapt to changing conditions. in this manner, it is possible to define coping ranges and critical thresholds. scenarios of climate and socio-economic changes present a range of plausible futures that provide a context for managing future risk. uncertainty regarding the nature of future climate change should not be a basis for delaying adaptation to climate change, but rather serve to focus on adaptation measures that help to address current vulnerabilities through expanding coping ranges and increasing adaptive capacity. many fundamental decisions regarding both climate change adaptation and mitigation will be influenced by assessment of the costs (and benefits) of climate change, recognizing that many significant social and environmental impacts are difficult to quantify. this is one area where relatively little progress has been made over the past few years and that therefore remains a high research priority in the immediate future. indeed, there remain many questions to be addressed and much research to be conducted in the field of climate change impacts and adaptation. the three themes discussed in this chapter will be reflected in future work. for example, the fourth assessment report of the ipcc will include a strong focus on adaptation and increased consideration of socio-economic impacts.(70, 71)
How were modes of global interannual variability calculated?
modes of global interannual variability were calculated using standard empirical orthogonal function (eof) covariance analysis
How were EOF spatial fields or eigenvectors scaled?
all resultant eof spatial fields or eigenvectors were scaled so that their amplitude is equal to the square root of their eigenvalue
Why do the results shown represent an unrotated EOF analysis?
the eigenvectors and pcs obtained after a varimax rotation of the reconstructed field (including 70% of the variance) were found to be essentially the same as for the unrotated case
monthly pdsi-t calculations were used to compare the model integrations with observations. interannual variability (covering time scales between 18 months and 8 yr) in pdsi-t was explored independently to lowerfrequency variability (time scales greater than 8 yr) to separate the changes associated with phenomena such as the el nino-southern oscillation (enso) from any longer-term changes. these two time scales were extracted using the digital filter of walraven (1984). modes of global interannual variability were calculated using standard empirical orthogonal function (eof) covariance analysis. all resultant eof spatial fields or eigenvectors were scaled so that their amplitude is equal to the square root of their eigenvalue. in addition, the time series or principal components (pcs) corresponding to each eof were scaled to have unit variance. the eigenvectors and pcs obtained after a varimax rotation of the reconstructed field (including 70% of the variance) were found to be essentially the same as for the unrotated case. therefore, results shown here represent an unrotated eof analysis. low-frequency variability was explored using a trend analysis of the filtered pdsi.
Of the 24 species analysed,how many showed a reduction in migration distance over this 73-year period?
of the 24 species analysed, 21 showed a reduction in migration distance over this 73-year period
Of these,how many showed a statistically significant reduction?
of these, 12 (50%) showed a statistically significant reduction
Was the strength of distance reduction correlated with the change in population size of the species, the species' diet, the body weight of the species or with the species and year specific breeding dispersal distance?
the strength of distance reduction was not correlated with the change in population size of the species, the species' diet, the body weight of the species or with the species and year specific breeding dispersal distance
of the 24 species analysed, 21 showed a reduction in migration distance over this 73-year period. of these, 12 (50%) showed a statistically significant reduction, while no species had a significantly increased migration distance (fig. 1; see also the supporting information fig. s1 and table s1). we found clear differences among species in the strength of the reduction in migration distance (the interaction term species  year was highly significant; table 1). this variation among species in temporal trend was dependent on the habitat and the typical migration distance. the strength of distance reduction was not correlated with the change in population size of the species, the species' diet, the body weight of the species or with the species and year specific breeding dispersal distance (table 2). there are a number of explanations for the observed reduction in winter recovery distance.
What foundations are numerical models formulated from?
principles and assumptions forming the foundations for a mathematical description of oceanic fluid motion. it is from this foundation, as well as that provided by ocean thermodynamics, that numerical models are then formulated
What is the range of space-time scales spanned by physical processes in the ocean?
physical processes in the ocean span space-time scales from millimeters and seconds to global and millennial
What do Rossby waves owe their existence to?
rossby waves owe their existence to the differential coriolis force (the b -effect) experienced by large-scale motion on the rotating spherical earth
this chapter introduces some of the principles and assumptions forming the foundations for a mathematical description of oceanic fluid motion. it is from this foundation, as well as that provided by ocean thermodynamics, that numerical models are then formulated. 2.1 some fundamental ocean processes as an to a study of ocean hydrodynamics, consider some physical processes that are part of the "zoo" of oceanic dynamics. representing or parameterizing these processes in realistic ocean circulation models is essential in order for the models to be of use as a tool for climate science. the following list is illustrative, not comprehensive, and is given as motivation for the interested reader to pursue a deeper understanding by referring to one or more of the texts listed in the preface. physical processes in the ocean span space-time scales from millimeters and seconds to global and millennial. these processes can be classified into largescale currents with time-dependent fluctuations manifesting as waves, turbulence, large-scale fluctuations of the mean circulation, and fundamental changes in the overall ocean circulation (e.g., transitions of the overturning circulation). important examples in the wave-like regime include surface gravity waves set up when the atmospheric winds perturb the ocean surface. indeed, these surface gravity waves are crucial for transmitting atmospheric momentum into the ocean's upper planetary boundary layer since they provide a frictional element to the otherwise smooth ocean surface. in the ocean interior, undulations of the stratified density surfaces are generated through a variety of forcing mechanisms, such as tidal motion over gradients in bottom topography. the breaking of these waves is thought to contribute to internal mixing of density classes, and so helps determine stratification of the ocean interior. at the ocean's boundaries and continental shelves, waves, such as coastally trapped waves, help to transmit information around ocean basins, with similar waves set up at the equator where a vanishing coriolis force acts as an effective boundary allowing for the existence of equatorially trapped kelvin waves. finally, at planetary scales, rossby waves owe their existence to the differential coriolis force (the b -effect) experienced by large-scale motion on the rotating spherical earth. these waves are important for setting up the ocean's general circulation. as with any hydrodynamical system, some fluctuations can feed off dynamical instabilities of the time mean flow and grow over time. for example, a heavy fluid parcel overlying a lighter parcel rapidly moves vertically to its level of neu8 chapter 2
Narrow the watershed effects?
watershed and aquatic specialists from participating pilot forests were able to develop an approach for quantifying watershed vulnerability within a relatively short period, and move forward with assessments
watershed and aquatic specialists from participating pilot forests were able to develop an approach for quantifying watershed vulnerability within a relatively short period, and move forward with assessments. four national forests were able to complete the process within 8 months. despite large differences in context and values across national forests, the basic framework and approach were applied successfully on all pilot forests. one of the most difficult aspects of the assessment process was acquiring suitable exposure data, which had not been used to any degree by the participants. project completion could have been accelerated by making exposure data available at the regional level at the outset. species and water use values of concern varied widely across pilot forests. in one case, brook trout salvelinus fontinalis was viewed as a stressor on one forest and a valued resource on another. the differences suggest that although information on various processes and resource conditions can be shared among forests, local (forestand watershed-scale) assessments have the greatest value. focusing the assessment on values or key resources, which had been agreed upon earlier, was useful in developing a product with limited investment. linkages with ongoing research were especially fruitful, resulting in assessments with a high level of scientific detail. ongoing collaborative work in downscaling climatic projections to assess future stream temperature provided critical information at a useful spatial scale. in a few locations, national forest or regional managers had identified climate change effects on water resources as a concern, so some pilot forests had a head start in terms of funding, support, and data availability. exposure projections are inherently uncertain, cannot typically be derived by forest specialists, and must be gathered and selected from what is currently available for each area assessed. by contrast, the sensitivity of forest resources is frequently well-known, and forest specialists are adept at analyzing how watersheds and landscapes would respond to rapid climatic changes such sensitivity can be determined with levels of confidence that inform land management decisions and adaptive responses. as with most endeavors, the resulting products were strongly influenced by the experience and expertise of those participating. those participants with the best local knowledge of forest resources and interactions tended to have the easiest time with the process. use of pilot participants as trainers or facilitators for future assessments will make those assessments more credible and efficient.
On what the climate change studies over the past few decades have mostly focused?
climate change studies over the past few decades have mostly focused on the changes in mean values
What is required for analyses of extremes?
analyses of extremes requires daily data, primarily on surface temperatures and precipitation
Which indices are considered in this context?
the indices considered in this context are: (i) highest daily maximum temperature, (ii) lowest daily minimum temperature, (iii) highest 1-day precipitation and (iv) highest 5-day precipitation
climate change studies over the past few decades have mostly focused on the changes in mean values. however, it is now being increasingly recognized that the manifestations of such changes in the occurrence of extreme weather and climatic events, particularly on the regional and local scales, are of paramount importance in assessing the socio-economic impacts of climate change. analyses of extremes requires daily data, primarily on surface temperatures and precipitation. some global analyses of the extremes have been made with the available data18,19, but a clear picture of such changes with regional detail is yet to emerge. a major issue that comes up while assessing changes in extremes is to objectively define and quantify the various types of extremes in weather elements. the joint world meteorological organization commission for climatology (ccl)/world climate research programme (wcrp) project on climate variability and predictability (clivar) expert team on climate change detection, monitoring and indices (etccdmi) coordinated efforts to develop a suite of relevant indices and enable their global analyses through regional participation. in the present study, we use some of the indices developed by the etccdmi to evaluate the simulations of precis in representing the extremes during the baseline period, and then examine the future projections of the extremes. the indices considered in this context are: (i) highest daily maximum temperature, (ii) lowest daily minimum temperature, (iii) highest 1-day precipitation and (iv) highest 5-day precipitation. the observed indices have been calculated based on daily data during the period 1961-90 over a well-spread network of 40 stations for the temperatures and 147 stations for precipitation. identical parameters for the regional model simulations are also worked out, both for the baseline period and the future scenarios.
What did The Tyndall Centre, of the University of East Anglia, conduct an study on?
the tyndall centre, of the university of east anglia, conducted an excellent study in vietnam, 6 demonstrating that those already marginalized in the economy were likely to suffer the greatest impacts as they had the fewest resources for coping with adverse change, a finding reflected in a number of other studies
Climate change has been stressed to impact what aspect of development in countries?
in the commons select committee report on global climate change referred to earlier, it was repeatedly stressed that climate change has the potential to increase further the inequality between developed and developing countries
Why isn't climate change considered an immediate problem like corruption and HIV/AIDS?
however, unlike corruption or hiv/aids, climate change is not widely recognized as an immediate problem because many of its impacts have been, to date, gradual and long term. the relative economic severity of climate events in different regions may be influenced by a wide range of factors from the large difference in the value put on a life in different parts of the world, to multiple impacts resulting from the interaction of different factors and events in a particular region
many sources expand on the perception that the impacts of climate change will not be evenly spread across the globe and are likely to fall disproportionately on the poor. 3 such studies typically outline the potential impacts on the developing world. the tyndall centre, of the university of east anglia, conducted an excellent study in vietnam, 6 demonstrating that those already marginalized in the economy were likely to suffer the greatest impacts as they had the fewest resources for coping with adverse change, a finding reflected in a number of other studies. 7 in the commons select committee report on global climate change referred to earlier, it was repeatedly stressed that climate change has the potential to increase further the inequality between developed and developing countries. as with corruption and hiv/aids, they claim, climate change could undermine development investment. 3 however, unlike corruption or hiv/aids, climate change is not widely recognized as an immediate problem because many of its impacts have been, to date, gradual and long term. the relative economic severity of climate events in different regions may be influenced by a wide range of factors from the large difference in the value put on a life in different parts of the world, to multiple impacts resulting from the interaction of different factors and events in a particular region. the relative vulnerability of a settlement, as may be demonstrated by cost of property repair or death tolls during droughts or heavy rains, may accrue largely from the compounding of contributory factors to those deaths or damage by, for instance, the incidence of local land and water pollution, as much as to the relative exposure of a settlement to a flood/drought hazard in the region. 8 insurance statistics do not illustrate well the compounding of such physical factors or the interrelationship of more complex human, historic or economic trends that might influence the level of impacts resulting from the slow desertification and abandonment of regions, the sinking of water tables, or many other aspects of climate change that will fuel human migrations. they also do not address the external costs that those regions will have to pay when accepting incoming refugees. more free ebooks http://fast-file.blogspot.com
What are the assumptions on which the results depend?
the results presented here depend on a number of assumptions. first, the hadsm3 model used in the cpdn project could have a bias in seasonality (i.e., overor underestimate seasonality systematically in certain regions regardless of the parameters chosen), causing the pdf of sensitivity to be shifted by an unknown amount. second, the neural network could fit a relation between seasonality and sensitivity that only exists in the hadsm3 model
What are summarized as "structural uncertainties"?
those uncertainties and all aspects of the model that cannot be varied by changing parameters (e.g., grid type and resolution, numerical schemes, forms of parameterizations, and processes resolved or neglected) are summarized here as "structural uncertainties
What means are used for models where multiple simulations are available?
ensemble means are used for models where multiple simulations are available
the results presented here depend on a number of assumptions. first, the hadsm3 model used in the cpdn project could have a bias in seasonality (i.e., overor underestimate seasonality systematically in certain regions regardless of the parameters chosen), causing the pdf of sensitivity to be shifted by an unknown amount. second, the neural network could fit a relation between seasonality and sensitivity that only exists in the hadsm3 model. as a weaker statement, one could argue that although there is a general relation between the two, the neural network might fit certain hadsm3 specific patterns that are not found in the real world, thus causing the uncertainty to be underestimated. those uncertainties and all aspects of the model that cannot be varied by changing parameters (e.g., grid type and resolution, numerical schemes, forms of parameterizations, and processes resolved or neglected) are summarized here as "structural uncertainties." they are difficult to estimate quantitatively; however, the following arguments point to the validity of the approach. we provide an evaluation of the method by predicting climate sensitivity for other independent aogcms, using the exact same statistical procedure. in contrast to the real world, the sensitivity predicted from the seasonal cycle of an aogcm can be compared to the true sensitivity obtained from a 2  co2 simulation. instead of reanalysis or observational data, output from coupled climate models from the years 1950-2000 is taken from transient twentieth-century simulations calculated for the upcoming ipcc ar4. the simulations include all radiative forcing components implemented by the modeling groups. ensemble means are used for models where multiple simulations are available. the predicted median sensitivities and 5%-95% uncertainty ranges for the 17 models or model versions available are shown in fig. 5, the predicted
How the accuracies of the climate variables generated by ClimateNA were calculated ?
the accuracies of the climate variables generated by climatena were evaluated against observations from 4,891 weather stations shown in fig 1 observed monthly normals of the primary climate variables for the reference period (1961 - 90) were calculated based on the daily climate data from the weather stations
What the accuracy assessments evaluate ?
the accuracy assessments evaluate the relative improvements achieved by our downscaling algorithms
What was compared in the research in question ?
compared the prediction accuracies between climatena output and the original prism (800 x 800 m) for areas with the prism data available (us and bc) against 4,257 weather stations within the coverage
the accuracies of the climate variables generated by climatena were evaluated against observations from 4,891 weather stations shown in fig 1 observed monthly normals of the primary climate variables for the reference period (1961 - 90) were calculated based on the daily climate data from the weather stations. the prediction errors, defined as the mean absolute error (mae), were used to evaluate the accuracy of the climate variables generated by climatena for the baseline data. we also compared the prediction accuracies between climatena output and the original prism (800 x 800 m) for areas with the prism data available (us and bc) against 4,257 weather stations within the coverage. it should be noted that these assessments are not truly independent validations of the original data layers, as many of these station data were included in the development of the original prism and worldclim grids. rather, the accuracy assessments evaluate the relative improvements achieved by our downscaling algorithms.
How do the perspectives differentiate?
these perspectives differ in terms of normative assumptions, national interests, estimated behavioral structures, scientific data and modeling, risk aversion, and the prospects of future learning
What would a sensible policymaker NOT do?
no sensible policymaker would base the globe's future on a single model, a single set of computer runs, or a single national or ethical perspective
What does sensible decision-making require?
sensible decision-making requires a robust set of alternative scenarios and sensitivity analyses
what should the prudent reader conclude from all this? there are many perspectives through which to view the future costs and benefits of policies to slow global warming. these perspectives differ in terms of normative assumptions, national interests, estimated behavioral structures, scientific data and modeling, risk aversion, and the prospects of future learning. no sensible policymaker would base the globe's future on a single model, a single set of computer runs, or a single national or ethical perspective. sensible decision-making requires a robust set of alternative scenarios and sensitivity analyses to determine whether some rabbit has in the dead of night jumped
Will the effects of climate change be unchanged across the world?
climate change is expected to have adverse impacts on socioeconomic development in all nations although the degree of the impact will differ
Are developing countries expected to be more or less vulnerable to climate change?
the ipcc findings indicate that developing countries such as ethiopia will be more vulnerable to climate change
Name some aspects of the environment that are climate sensitive.
forest, water and biodiversity resources of the country are also climate sensitive
climate change is expected to have adverse impacts on socioeconomic development in all nations although the degree of the impact will differ. the ipcc findings indicate that developing countries such as ethiopia will be more vulnerable to climate change. climate change may have far reaching implications for ethiopia due to various reasons. the economy of the country mainly depends on agriculture, which is very sensitive to climate variations. a large part of the country is arid and semiarid and is highly prone to desertification and drought. the country has also a fragile highland ecosystem which is currently under stress due to population pressure. forest, water and biodiversity resources of the country are also climate sensitive. climate change is therefore a case for concern (nmsa, 2001). despite the fact that the impact of climate change is forecasted at the global scale, the type and magnitude of the impact at a catchment scale is not investigated in most part of the world. therefore it is necessary to study the effect of climate change at this scale in order to take the effect into account by the policy and decision makers when planning water resources management.
What did social scientists notice?
many social scientists have noted cycles of social order and disorder in history, in which downturn periods were characterized by inflation, a fall in real wages, political crisis, war, and state breakdown
What models are similar to our model?
the agrarian and environmental models are similar to our model
Are the models convincing?
but because there were no high-resolution paleo-temperature reconstructions at the time these models were proposed, and the explanations in these models lack population feedback, the models are not entirely convincing
many social scientists have noted cycles of social order and disorder in history, in which downturn periods were characterized by inflation, a fall in real wages, political crisis, war, and state breakdown si text and refs. 28 and 29). there are many theories and hypotheses that attempt to explain this type of crisis and the dynamics behind the cyclical pattern of history (24). they have told us much about the dynamics behind the cycles. however, those models cannot explain parallel occurrence of these crises in widely separated regions that were in different stages of civilization, culture, and resource endowment, nor predict the timing of such crises. the agrarian and environmental models are similar to our model. but because there were no high-resolution paleo-temperature reconstructions at the time these models were proposed, and the explanations in these models lack population feedback, the models are not entirely convincing.
How many coastal dunes must be able to withstand a storm event with a certain frequency of exceedance?
63
What is the allowable frequency of exceedance for the Holland coast?
1 in 10,000 years
Preservation of the sand balance by sand nourishments started when?
1990
to ensure safety against flooding, safety levels for all flood defenses in the netherlands, including the dunes, have been established by law.63coastal dunes must be able to withstand a storm event with a certain frequency of exceedance. the allowable frequency of exceedance is 1 in 10,000 years for the holland coast, and between 1 in 4000 and 2000 years for the delta coast and wadden islands. for dikes along the tidal rivers in the western part of the country, it is between 1 in 2000 and 4000 years (figure 3). additionally, for the coast the water act prescribes the preservation of the coast line at its 1990 position. this requirement ensures the maintenance of morphological boundary conditions for dune growth, and as such the sustainable preservation of safety levels. preservation of the sand balance by sand nourishments started in 1990 and has shown to be effective at the present rate of sea level rise.33,57
What size gravel should be used in wetlands/vegetated submersed bed systems?
the gravel should have a size that allows the continuos flow of the sewage without clogging problems
Where does sewage flow in wetlands?
sewage flows in contact with the roots and the rhizomes of the plants (where a bacterial biofilm is developed), not being visible or available for the aquatic biota
Why don't vegetated submersed bed systems resemble wetlands?
these do not resemble natural wetlands because there is no free water on the surface
subsurface flow wetlands (vegetated submersed bed systems) these do not resemble natural wetlands because there is no free water on the surface. there is a bed composed of small stones, gravel, sand or soil that gives support to the growth of aquatic plants. the water level stays below the surface of the bed, and sewage flows in contact with the roots and the rhizomes of the plants (where a bacterial biofilm is developed), not being visible or available for the aquatic biota. plant genera that have been used are: typha scirpus carex and phragmites the medium height is between 0.5 and 0.6 m and water depth is between 0.4 and 0.5 m. the gravel should have a size that allows the continuos flow of the sewage without clogging problems. a large part of the subsurface zone is anaerobic, with aerobic sites immediately adjacent to the rhizomes and roots. there is a lower potential for the generation of bad odours and the appearance of mosquitoes and rats. these wetlands are suited to receive effluents from septic tanks and anaerobic reactors, but not from stabilisation ponds, because of the presence of algae. for effluents from septic tanks, the land requirements are around 5.0 to 6.0 m2/hab, and for effluents from anaerobic reactors, between 2.5 and 4.0 m2/hab. overview of wastewater treatment systems 197 regarding the direction of the water flow, the wetlands can be classified as:
What is the result for less stable atmosphere?
the widespread mslp decrease is the result of the trend toward a warmer, less stable atmosphere
What/who is responsible for a large proportion of midlatitude precipitation?
storm tracks are responsible for a large proportion of midlatitude precipitation, and therefore these changes give rise to much of the change in midlatitude precipitation (fig. 9a
What was calculated using the high-pass transient poleward temperature flux at 850 hPa?
storm track activity has been calculated using the high-pass transient poleward temperature flux at 850 hpa, showing areas of maximum high-frequency
sea/north pacific and north atlantic. decreases in mslp over the arctic locally exceed 4 mb in expt1, 5 mb in expt2, and 6 mb in expt3. significant anomalies are less extensive in simulation expt1. the widespread mslp decrease is the result of the trend toward a warmer, less stable atmosphere. a direct atmospheric response to warm sat anomalies is a drop in mslp and anomalous cyclonic surface winds. in accordance with a less stable atmosphere, changes in northern hemisphere storm tracks occur. storm tracks are responsible for a large proportion of midlatitude precipitation, and therefore these changes give rise to much of the change in midlatitude precipitation (fig. 9a). storm track activity has been calculated using the high-pass transient poleward temperature flux at 850 hpa, showing areas of maximum high-frequency
What could be considered a good deal in climate policy?
a great deal is at stake if these ancillary benefits are significant then perhaps the development and implementation of climate policy
How large are the effects compared to other costs?
on the other hand, if these effects are "small" relative to the other costs
Do people have a correct idea about the costs and benefits of adopting new climate policies?
at the very least, knowing that the possibly high cost of climate change mitigation might be largely offset by ancillary benefits could speed up and spread the commitment to action as well as implementation itself
a great deal is at stake if these ancillary benefits are significant then perhaps the development and implementation of climate policy should be altered. at the very least, knowing that the possibly high cost of climate change mitigation might be largely offset by ancillary benefits could speed up and spread the commitment to action as well as implementation itself. on the other hand, if these effects are "small" relative to the other costs or the benefits of reducing ghgs, perhaps they can be safely ignored in the debate over climate change mitigation policy--at least from the perspective of efficiency--simplifying an already too complex debate. (p. 1)
How Data Collection Data was collected?
data collection data was collected mainly through a questionnaire that was administered to 70 randomly selected household heads, composed of 45 women and 25 men
Who dominated the household heads?
women dominated the household heads because most men have left for formal employment in towns, particularly in the nearby zvishavane and marowa mines
Determine about the main themes?
 the main themes that determined the structure of the questionnaire were: * demographic and other socio-economic characteristics of the farmers that have implications on their perceptions, attitudes, knowledge, and adoption of adaptation strategies, such as gender, age, agricultural resources, main source of household income, education, period of stay in the area, and household size. * knowledge, attitudes, and perceptions about climate change its impact on agricultural activities and productivity
data collection data was collected mainly through a questionnaire that was administered to 70 randomly selected household heads, composed of 45 women and 25 men. women dominated the household heads because most men have left for formal employment in towns, particularly in the nearby zvishavane and marowa mines. the main themes that determined the structure of the questionnaire were: * demographic and other socio-economic characteristics of the farmers that have implications on their perceptions, attitudes, knowledge, and adoption of adaptation strategies, such as gender, age, agricultural resources, main source of household income, education, period of stay in the area, and household size. * knowledge, attitudes, and perceptions about climate change its impact on agricultural activities and productivity.
What is the economic situation?
n estimating future health impacts, we face fundamental uncertainties regarding future numbers of persons at risk and future baseline death rates. ideally we would like to know future population numbers, stratified by age, race, and relative economic status. also, since heat impacts are typically reported as proportional increases above baseline rates, it is important to know the baseline (i.e., non-heat-related) mortality rate for each city. however, these cannot be predicted with accuracy beyond a few de
in estimating future health impacts, we face fundamental uncertainties regarding future numbers of persons at risk and future baseline death rates. ideally we would like to know future population numbers, stratified by age, race, and relative economic status. also, since heat impacts are typically reported as proportional increases above baseline rates, it is important to know the baseline (i.e., non-heat-related) mortality rate for each city. however, these cannot be predicted with accuracy beyond a few decades. one approach is to make the simplifying assumption that populations and death rates remain constant, thus isolating the climate effect from other important trends. if susceptible populations (e.g., the elderly, racial minorities) are also considered, additional assumptions are required with respect to the age structure and demographic distributions of future populations and their respective mortality rates. while we lack a clear picture of future demographics, projections by the census bureau clearly indicate a marked increase in older populations fig. 1 ). the number of people over age 65 in the u.s. is estimated to increase by over 36 million persons by 2030, reflecting a 104% increase u.s. census bureau, 2005 ). population trends can be interrelated and may intersect across different susceptibilities, with potential growth in multiple subgroups with varying sensitivities (e.g., the elderly and poor). for instance, the number of persons' ages 65 years and older is anticipated to increase as shown in fig. 1 however the baseline health status of this age group on average is changing with fewer disabilities and chronic illnesses. within this age category, there is evidence for trends in increased education level, more racial diversity, and improved finances. because various populations respond to heat differently with respect to mortality risk, changing population characteristics can affect the relative impact of heat in the future.
What confirms broad patterns of energy and water limitations?
global synthesis of ecosystem-scale evapotranspiration confirms broad patterns of energy (radiative dryness) and water (precipitation) limitations, and their combined influence on the surface water balance, explaining roughly 62% of the across-site variation in evaporative index (the fraction of precipitation consumed by evapotranspiration
Are forests found to evapotranspire a large fraction of annual precipitation than grasslands?
surprisingly, forests are not found to evapotranspire a larger fraction of annual precipitation than grasslands, calling into question this common expectation
Which database will help to explore how interannual relationships between evaporative index and dryness index vary?
it would also be valuable to utilize the extensive fluxnet database to explore how interannual relationships between evaporative index and dryness index may vary by climate type or vegetation types
global synthesis of ecosystem-scale evapotranspiration confirms broad patterns of energy (radiative dryness) and water (precipitation) limitations, and their combined influence on the surface water balance, explaining roughly 62% of the across-site variation in evaporative index (the fraction of precipitation consumed by evapotranspiration). climate type and vegetation type are both found to be important additional controls th 13%), modulating the firstorder effects of mean annual water supply and demand. surprisingly, forests are not found to evapotranspire a larger fraction of annual precipitation than grasslands, calling into question this common expectation. future analyses should explore possible influences of soil characteristics, topography, and precipitation intensity, as well as seek to address measurement errors or biases in precipitation and evapotranspiration estimates or groundwater uptake as an additional water source. because of a lack of data, this study was not able to explore possible dependence on soil physical properties despite their known influence on storage capacity and soil water retention and delivery to the soil-atmosphere, and soil-root interfaces. it would also be valuable to utilize the extensive fluxnet database to explore how interannual relationships between evaporative index and dryness index may vary by climate type or vegetation types. such examinations would extend this first integrative analysis across the eddy covariance network that documents support for the essential budyko framework of surface water balance predictions, confirms sensitivity to climate seasonality and land cover type, and also challenges classical notions of water use by vegetation types.
What are modelled TRds computed for?
full drifting snow layer, while the observed flux is measured for the first 2 m above the surface
What is the observation of lower limit TRds?
the bulk of the flux is contained within the vicinity of the surface
What does figure 10A illustrate?
a significant decrease in modelled trds for racmo2.3p2, as a result of the lowered linear saltation snow load parameter (dery and yau, 1999
racmo2.3p2 and racmo2.3p1. modelled trds is computed for the full drifting snow layer, while the observed flux is measured for the first 2 m above the surface. therefore, although the bulk of the flux is contained within the vicinity of the surface (mann et al., 2000; lenaerts et al., 2010), the observations represent a lower limit of trds. figure 10a illustrates a significant decrease in modelled trds for racmo2.3p2, as a result of the lowered linear saltation snow load parameter (dery and yau, 1999). there is a good match, albeit an average underestimation by racmo2.3p2 of 5.4 tons, with observed trds. 10
What is the Hadley circulation?
in the tropics, the dynamic heat transport is predominantly carried out by the hadley circulation, a zonally symmetric overturning cell which changes gradually over the course of the seasonal cycle
How does the Hadley cell determine the temperature in the tropics?
in the modern world, the hadley cell homogenizes free-troposphere temperature between about 20n and 20s, causing this region to behave as a single thermal unit; substantial gradients in atmospheric heating are redistributed so as to yield weak variations in tropical temperature. in particular, the vertical profile of temperature lies on the moist adiabat both in the convective region and the subsiding region, despite the fact that active convection occupies only a small portion of the tropics pierrehumbert 1995
What is the weak solar forcing?
weak solar forcing, low thermal inertia of the surface and the very limited role of latent heat transport in a cold, dry atmosphere, could cause the hadley cell on a hard snowball earth to differ markedly from that of the present climate
in the tropics, the dynamic heat transport is predominantly carried out by the hadley circulation, a zonally symmetric overturning cell which changes gradually over the course of the seasonal cycle. in fact, dynamically speaking, ''the tropics'' may be defined as that region of the globe where the hadley cell plays the dominant role in determining the temperature pattern. weak solar forcing, low thermal inertia of the surface and the very limited role of latent heat transport in a cold, dry atmosphere, could cause the hadley cell on a hard snowball earth to differ markedly from that of the present climate. in the modern world, the hadley cell homogenizes free-troposphere temperature between about 20n and 20s, causing this region to behave as a single thermal unit; substantial gradients in atmospheric heating are redistributed so as to yield weak variations in tropical temperature. in particular, the vertical profile of temperature lies on the moist adiabat both in the convective region and the subsiding region, despite the fact that active convection occupies only a small portion of the tropics pierrehumbert 1995]. our goal in this section is to describe the extent to which the effects of the hard snowball hadley circulation deviate from this picture. we begin with a basic description of the zonal-mean circulation, the mass-flux streamfunction of which is shown in figure 9 for the 100 ppm climate. the streamfunction is defined such that the streamfunction difference between any two contours is the rate of mass flow carried by the hadley cell in the region between those contours. if one attributes roughly half the mass of the atmosphere to the tropics, then a hadley cell with maximum streamfunction value of 200  109kg/s would turn over the tropical atmosphere in approximately 150 days. figure 8. scatterplot of northern hemisphere thermal diffusivity diagnosed from the simulations, against temperature difference over the interval extending 10 degrees of latitude on either side of the point of maximum dry static energy flux. each point represents an estimate for an individual month, for the indicated value of co2.
What is one of the ecosystems that is most susceptible to climate change?
coral reefs are among the ecosystems with the greatest environmental susceptibility to climate change
How many people in the Western Indian Ocean depend on the coastal environment for goods and services?
approximately thirty million people in the wio depend directly or indirectly on the coastal environment for goods and services
What kind of damage has climate change inflicted on coral reefs?
during the 1998 el ninosouthern oscillation (enso) warming event, wio reefs underwent severe bleaching and suffered 0-95% coral mortality, depending on location (goreau et al. 2000
western indian ocean case study we further explore this environmental susceptibility-adaptive capacity framework by applying it to locations with coral reefs and associated fisheries in the western indian ocean (wio), where climate-mediated coral bleaching has had extensive effects and in combination with local anthropogenic causes of degradation, demands appropriate and effective management interventions. approximately thirty million people in the wio depend directly or indirectly on the coastal environment for goods and services. coral reefs are among the ecosystems with the greatest environmental susceptibility to climate change (walther et al. 2002). during the 1998 el ninosouthern oscillation (enso) warming event, wio reefs underwent severe bleaching and suffered 0-95% coral mortality, depending on location (goreau et al. 2000).
why future changes in storm tracks are uncertain?
future changes in storm tracks are uncertain because of competing thermodynamic responses to anthropogenic radiative forcing, including changes in co2 and ozone
what is the promising direction?
a promising direction is to constrain the influence of future competing thermodynamic responses by exploiting relationships between modelled future changes and seasonal and interannual variations (so-called emergent constraints)77
what does progress in our understanding of storm tracks and their response to climate change depends on?
overall, progress in our understanding of storm tracks and their response to climate change depends on: (1) additional observations; and (2) filling gaps in the model hierarchy. additional observations of cyclones are needed to better characterize how moist processes
future changes in storm tracks are uncertain because of competing thermodynamic responses to anthropogenic radiative forcing, including changes in co2 and ozone. a promising direction is to constrain the influence of future competing thermodynamic responses by exploiting relationships between modelled future changes and seasonal and interannual variations (so-called emergent constraints)77. in addition, synthesizing the storm track response to climate change into a feedback framework -- similar to that for the thermodynamic response16 -- by separately quantifying the forcing (changes in baroclinicity) and feedbacks may be a path forward for integrating our understanding of the link between thermodynamics and dynamics. overall, progress in our understanding of storm tracks and their response to climate change depends on: (1) additional observations; and (2) filling gaps in the model hierarchy. additional observations of cyclones are needed to better characterize how moist processes
What are the typical values of magnesium calcites?
magnesium calcites typically have d18o values that are elevated by 0.06%0/mol% mgco3 (tarutani et al.,1969
What is often assumed but not proven in lake studies?
in lake studies it is often assumed, but not proven, that carbonates and silicates formed in isotope equilibrium, but many studies lack the detailed investigation of contemporaneous materials to prove this (see section 2.3
What is particularly useful to know when regarding carbonate precipitates?
it is particularly useful to know when and where the carbonate precipitates in the modern environment. this may tell us whether the sediment record reflects summer or year round conditions
we recommend adoption of this relationship as a measure of equilibrium although it must be noted that 'palaeotemperatures' calculated using it will be lower than those calculated using the craig equation or its derivatives. the above equations use the smow and pdb protocol but for all practical purposes these are essentially the same as using 'vsmow' and 'vpdb' which has been adopted by many laboratories to signify that the data has been standardised in line with international protocols (coplen 1994). aragonite and magnesian calcites precipitated at equilibrium generally have d18o values that are higher than that for low magnesium calcites. aragonite d18o values are typically around +0.6 %0 higher than equivalent calcite (grossman, 1982; abell and williams, 1989). magnesium calcites typically have d18o values that are elevated by 0.06%0/mol% mgco3 (tarutani et al.,1969). for both aragonite and high magnesium calcite the offset from the calcite value appears to be independent of temperature (cf. figure 1 in kim and o'neil, 1997). in lake studies it is often assumed, but not proven, that carbonates and silicates formed in isotope equilibrium, but many studies lack the detailed investigation of contemporaneous materials to prove this (see section 2.3). ideally any palaeoclimate study of sediments or fossils from a lacustrine sequence should include a study of the contemporary lake water and the modern mineral precipitates. the presence of a systematic relationship between temperature, water isotope composition and mineral composition for the modern lake enables quantitative interpretation of the sediment record. it is particularly useful to know when and where the carbonate precipitates in the modern environment. this may tell us whether the sediment record reflects summer or year round conditions.
Who partially supported this study?
this study was partially supported by research grant pb94-0997 from direccio'n general interministerial de ciencia y tecnologi'a
Who was thanked?
we thank steve kozlowski, wilmar schaufeli, bram buunk, and michael west for their helpful comments on versions of this article and fernando prieto for his everlasting inspiration and encouragemen
What was the email address that was referenced?
e-mail: vicente.glez-roma@uv.es
vicente gonza'lez-roma', department of methodology of behavioral sciences, university of valencia, valencia, spain; jose' m. peiro' and nu'ria tordera, department of social psychology, university of valencia. this study was partially supported by research grant pb94-0997 from direccio'n general interministerial de ciencia y tecnologi'a. we thank steve kozlowski, wilmar schaufeli, bram buunk, and michael west for their helpful comments on versions of this article and fernando prieto for his everlasting inspiration and encouragement. correspondence concerning this article should be addressed to vicente gonza'lez-roma', university of valencia, faculty of psychology, department of methodology of behavioral sciences, avenida blasco iba'n~ez, 21, 46010 valencia, spain. e-mail: vicente.glez-roma@uv.es
Explain REA value?
the rea value for each season and decade is calculated by weighting each model's output by its bias and distance from the all-model average
Define weighted average?
the new, weighted average follows the reliability ensemble averaging "rea" (giorgi and mearns, 2002) approach
Explain REA value?
in this approach, the rea value for each season and decade is calculated by weighting each model's output by its bias and distance from the all-model average
the new, weighted average follows the reliability ensemble averaging "rea" (giorgi and mearns, 2002) approach. in this approach, the rea value for each season and decade is calculated by weighting each model's output by its bias and distance from the all-model average. multi-model averages in weather forecasting, seasonal forecasting, and climate simulations often come closer to observations than single models (see figure 3a above), and rea may produce better results for the future than an unweighted average by giving more weight to models that perform well in simulating 20th century climate. for details on the rea calculation, see appendix b. in this document, "2020s" denotes the 2010-2039 average, 1980s denotes the 19701999 average, and likewise for 2040s and 2080s.
Which aggregates are used when working with biomass production and consumption flows?
we distinguished 11 food aggregates (cereals; roots and tubers; sugar crops; pulses; oil crops; vegetables and fruits; meat of ruminants (grazers); milk, butter and other dairy products; meat of pigs, poultry, and eggs; fish; other crops
What are the two main animals that were included in the "non-shepherd" group?
all other animals (above all pigs and poultry) were included in the "non-grazers" group
we used the following aggregates when working with biomass production and consumption flows. we distinguished 11 food aggregates (cereals; roots and tubers; sugar crops; pulses; oil crops; vegetables and fruits; meat of ruminants (grazers); milk, butter and other dairy products; meat of pigs, poultry, and eggs; fish; other crops). we defined seven food crop aggregates (cereals; oil-bearing crops; sugar crops; pulses; roots and tubers; vegetables and fruits; others). we distinguished two groups of livestock: all animals capable of digesting roughage were aggregated into the "grazers" group (cattle, sheep, goats, etc.). all other animals (above all pigs and poultry) were included in the "non-grazers" group. data reported in fresh weight or air-dry weight were converted into dry matter using specific data on water content according to standard tables of food and feed composition [44 e 47]
What do mangrove tree species have?
mangrove tree species have aerial roots of varying architectures (eg stilts, pnuematophores, knees and buttresses) that have a significant impact on the function of mangrove-dominated estuaries
The role of mangrove roots in preventing coastal erosion is
the role of mangrove roots in preventing coastal erosion is critical95,121,122,119,123
Who is the fauna associated with?
the fauna associated with aboveground roots graze on algal and microbial material and benefit from protection from predation139,111,147,6,163
mangrove tree species have aerial roots of varying architectures (eg stilts, pnuematophores, knees and buttresses) that have a significant impact on the function of mangrove-dominated estuaries. lower stems and root structures, including pneumatophores cause friction within wetlands, slowing water velocities and resulting in deposition of sediments96,185. through the process of trapping sediments and particulate organic matter96,9,13 water quality in adjacent habitats (seagrass and coral reefs) is enhanced185. the role of mangrove roots in preventing coastal erosion is critical95,121,122,119,123. they also may have some role in protection from storm surges and tsunamis60,63,58. roots also bind sediments preventing resuspension190,109. they provide sites for associated flora (eg macroalgae), that adhere to above ground roots149, further increasing the friction to tidal flow. the fauna associated with aboveground roots graze on algal and microbial material and benefit from protection from predation139,111,147,6,163.
Should a worker attempt to help train new hires in safety procedures?
 helping: volunteering for safety committees, helping teach safety procedures to new crew members, assisting others to make sure they perform their work safely, getting involved in safety activities to help my crew work more safely, helping other crew members learn about safe work practices, and helping others with safety related responsibilities
Should a worker report any and all unsafe procedures seen in the workplace?
whistleblowing: explaining to other crew members that i will report safety violations, telling other crew members to follow safe working procedures, monitoring new crew members to ensure they are performing safely, reporting crew members who violate safety procedures, and telling new crew members that violations of safety procedures will not be tolerated
Should workers be concerned with improving safety procedures and practices in the workplace?
initiating safety-related change: trying to improve safety procedures, trying to change the way the job is done to make it safer, trying to change policies and procedures to make them safer, and making suggestions to improve the safety of a mission
twenty-seven items were used to investigate employee safety citizenship role definitions and safety citizenship behavior. the same items were used for both measures, with the employees rating each item as to the degree it was in-role versus extra-role and with the leaders rating each item with respect to the frequency of performance. the items were as follows: 1. helping: volunteering for safety committees, helping teach safety procedures to new crew members, assisting others to make sure they perform their work safely, getting involved in safety activities to help my crew work more safely, helping other crew members learn about safe work practices, and helping others with safety related responsibilities. 2. voice: making safety-related recommendations about work activities, speaking up and encouraging others to get involved in safety issues, expressing opinions on safety matters even if others disagree, and raising safety concerns during planning sessions. 3. stewardship: protecting fellow crew members from safety hazards, going out of my way to look out for the safety of other crew members, taking action to protect other crew members from risky situations, trying to prevent other crew members from being injured on the job, and taking action to stop safety violations in order to protect the well-being of other crew members. 4. whistleblowing: explaining to other crew members that i will report safety violations, telling other crew members to follow safe working procedures, monitoring new crew members to ensure they are performing safely, reporting crew members who violate safety procedures, and telling new crew members that violations of safety procedures will not be tolerated. 5. civic virtue (keeping informed): attending safety meetings, attending nonmandatory safety-oriented meetings, and keeping informed of changes in safety policies and procedures. 6. initiating safety-related change: trying to improve safety procedures, trying to change the way the job is done to make it safer, trying to change policies and procedures to make them safer, and making suggestions to improve the safety of a mission.
According to Christian Aid reports, how many people will be displaced by 2050?
a christian aid report projects that one billion people will be displaced by 2050
What is the long practiced strategic  in response to seasonal changes?
although voluntary migration in response to seasonal changes is a long practiced strategic although voluntary migration in response to seasonal changes is a long practiced strategic response by many communities
What will happen to women who become de facto heads of households and take on men's farming roles in addition to their existing agricultural and domestic responsibilities?
women, who become de facto heads of households and must take on men's farming roles in addition to their existing agricultural and domestic responsibilities. this may lead to changes in gender roles as women have more opportunities for decision-making and exercise greater control over household resources (fao 2003). at the same time, it may be difficult for a household that is treated as female-headed in a husband's absence to retain control over land and other productive assets because of restrictions on women's property and land rights. this heightens women's vulnerability at exactly the point at which their responsibilities increase
climate change and displacement the number of internally displaced persons (idps) is expected to rise dramatically in the coming decades. and those already displaced look likely to be joined by at least equal numbers of people forced from their homes because of climate change. the impact of climate change is the great, and frightening, unknown in this equation. existing estimates of its potential to displace people are more than a decade old and are widely disputed. only now is serious academic attention being devoted to calculating the scale of this new human tide. (christian aid 2007) although voluntary migration in response to seasonal changes is a long practiced strategic although voluntary migration in response to seasonal changes is a long practiced strategic response by many communities, migration is increasing with climate change and includes traditionally static populations who have needed to move because their environment has been adversely affected by climate change. a christian aid report projects that one billion people will be displaced by 2050 and that climate change is likely to exacerbate existing challenges around migration, particularly forced migration (christian aid 2007). remittances from migrant labour may mean that households are able to rely less on agricultural activities for income, enabling them to meet their food security needs in an environment of declining land productivity while also reducing the pressure on natural resources in dryland areas (fao 2003). in other cases, migrating men may contribute little to family incomes, increasing the workload of those left behind, often women, who become de facto heads of households and must take on men's farming roles in addition to their existing agricultural and domestic responsibilities. this may lead to changes in gender roles as women have more opportunities for decision-making and exercise greater control over household resources (fao 2003). at the same time, it may be difficult for a household that is treated as female-headed in a husband's absence to retain control over land and other productive assets because of restrictions on women's property and land rights. this heightens women's vulnerability at exactly the point at which their responsibilities increase.
This article analyzes the vulnerability of the country agriculture?
this paper analyses the vulnerability of south african agriculture
This article analyzes the vulnerability of South African agriculture under what conditions?
this paper analyses the vulnerability of south african agriculture to climate change and variability
Nineteen environmental and socioeconomic indicators are indicated to reflect the three components of vulnerability, what is the name of these components?
exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity
this paper analyses the vulnerability of south african agriculture to climate change and variability by developing a vulnerability index and comparing vulnerability indicators across the nine provinces of the country. nineteen environmental and socio-economic indicators are identified to reflect the three components of vulnerability: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. the results of the study show that the regions most exposed to climate change and variability do not always overlap with those experiencing high sensitivity or low adaptive capacity. furthermore, vulnerability to climate change and variability is intrinsically linked with social and economic development. the western cape and gauteng provinces, which have high levels of infrastructure development, high literacy rates, and low shares of agriculture in total gdp, are relatively low on the vulnerability index. in contrast, the highly vulnerable regions of limpopo, kwazulu-natal and the eastern cape are characterised by densely populated rural areas, large numbers of small-scale farmers, high dependency on rain-fed agriculture and high land degradation. these large differences in the extent of vulnerability among provinces suggest that policymakers should develop region-specific policies and address climate change at the local level.narf_1302 175..187
What is the first limitation of the article?
first, common method bias is always an issue in survey research, as the data are provided by the same respondent. in this study, this bias was mitigated to a certain extent by collecting information from two respondents (i.e., the ceo and hr/finance director) on key variables (i.e., shrm, hrm practices, and firm outcomes). additional data collected from different informants could triangulate these results
What is the second limitation of the article?
second, hrm may have a different meaning in the context of foreign versus local firms. hrm may be more narrowly defined in local chinese firms than in western models (warner et al., 1999), which might lead to biases in comparing across firms
What is the third limitation of the article?
third, the crosssectional nature of the data may have biased the conclusions on the direction of causality. high-performing firms may invest more in hr and introduce more new hr practices. conducting future research using a longitudinal design seems desirable in order to disentangle these causal relationships (wright gardner, 2003
some limitations of our article should be noted. first, common method bias is always an issue in survey research, as the data are provided by the same respondent. in this study, this bias was mitigated to a certain extent by collecting information from two respondents (i.e., the ceo and hr/finance director) on key variables (i.e., shrm, hrm practices, and firm outcomes). additional data collected from different informants could triangulate these results. second, hrm may have a different meaning in the context of foreign versus local firms. hrm may be more narrowly defined in local chinese firms than in western models (warner et al., 1999), which might lead to biases in comparing across firms. third, the crosssectional nature of the data may have biased the conclusions on the direction of causality. high-performing firms may invest more in hr and introduce more new hr practices. conducting future research using a longitudinal design seems desirable in order to disentangle these causal relationships (wright gardner, 2003). in this study, we found that ownership does not have strong moderating effects on firm outcomes. future studies are needed on the intervening variables between shrm and hr practices and firm performance (bjorkman fan, 2002; wright gardner, 2003). for example, the employment relationship type (tsui wu, 2005) and organizational culture (lau ngo, 2004) may be mediating
What 3 things caused the 2008 global economic 'carnage'?
the year 2008 saw the global economic ' carnage ' caused by the combination of personal greed, cheap debt and lack of trust between banks
How did the uncertainty surrounding current and future energy prices underpin the 2008 economic 'carnage'?
every sub-prime matchbox macmansion rolled out across the desert plains of nevada or arizona was made by energy-hungry machines and production lines, and every desert home is only inhabitable because of the cheap machines that pumps them full of coolth. the point at which energy soared above the level the middle classes of america could afford to pay for it, was the point at which those buildings became unsellable, and in hot states this was speeded up by soaring air conditioning cost (figure 13.1
In UK buildings, what percentage of energy produced is used to heat, light, cook, and run equipment?
in the uk buildings use around 46% of all the energy we produce simply to heat, light, cook and run equipment, without the energy costs of materials to build them and transport to get to them being taken into account
the year 2008 saw the global economic ' carnage ' caused by the combination of personal greed, cheap debt and lack of trust between banks. underpinning this chaos is the uncertainty surrounding current and future energy prices and the fear that we are at the end of the age of cheap energy. every sub-prime matchbox macmansion rolled out across the desert plains of nevada or arizona was made by energy-hungry machines and production lines, and every desert home is only inhabitable because of the cheap machines that pumps them full of coolth. the point at which energy soared above the level the middle classes of america could afford to pay for it, was the point at which those buildings became unsellable, and in hot states this was speeded up by soaring air conditioning cost (figure 13.1). this economic crisis is not just about debt. it is about bad buildings and the increasingly unaffordable energy costs of occupying them in a changing climate. the affordable cost threshold of the energy needed to keep those building comfortable will, like the temperature threshold of passive technologies and buildings before them, dictate whether buildings and cities live or die. the end of the age of cheap energy also inevitably marks the end of energyprofligate building because we will simply, increasingly, no longer be able to afford to run them. the challenge now is to restructure our entire lifestyles to wean ourselves off fossil fuel energy. in the uk buildings use around 46% of all the energy we produce simply to heat, light, cook and run equipment, without the energy costs of materials to build them and transport to get to them being taken into account. 1 the huge structural cracks had already opened up in the fossil fuel supply lines by 2003 when the white paper on energy policy published by the uk department of trade and industry outlined the key energy aims of the uk government to: 2
What are the implications of the above twofold challenge for supporting decision making about adapting to long-term climate change?
social sciences research clearly shows that simply overcoming the extremely difficult scientific and technical obstacles to climate prediction will not suffice. climate-related decision support is hard, not only because long-term climate prediction is hard, but also because creating decision-relevant processes for the production and uptake of climate information is hard
If climate science is not delivering actionable predictions, then what good is it?
sarewitz and pielke73have introduced the idea of 'supply of and demand for science'--the importance of simultaneously reconciling the capabilities and aspirations of both knowledge producers and knowledge users
Empowered users taking advantage of welldeployed research capabilities'.
one major factor in the match of supply and demand is the decision framework within which the scientific information must operate, and by which its relevance is judged. for the case of climate modeling to support decision making, we argue that supply and demand are out of balance because of the predominance of a prediction-based paradigm
what are the implications of the above twofold challenge for supporting decision making about adapting to long-term climate change? social sciences research clearly shows that simply overcoming the extremely difficult scientific and technical obstacles to climate prediction will not suffice. climate-related decision support is hard, not only because long-term climate prediction is hard, but also because creating decision-relevant processes for the production and uptake of climate information is hard. we suggest that a kind of cognitive dissonance infuses discussions of the social value of climate modeling. on one hand, we recognize that the climate system is almost unimaginably complex and the challenges of modeling it are enormous. on the other hand, we tell ourselves that we urgently need the predictions that only models can supply. we wrestle with the question: 'if climate science is not delivering actionable predictions, then what good is it?' sarewitz and pielke73have introduced the idea of 'supply of and demand for science'--the importance of simultaneously reconciling the capabilities and aspirations of both knowledge producers and knowledge users. in the terminology of their 'missed opportunity matrix' (figure 1) this reconciliation results in 'empowered users taking advantage of welldeployed research capabilities'. one major factor in the match of supply and demand is the decision framework within which the scientific information must operate, and by which its relevance is judged. for the case of climate modeling to support decision making, we argue that supply and demand are out of balance because of the predominance of a prediction-based paradigm
Who reportedly factors seasonal forecasts into their recommendations to farmers?
seedco, a seed producer and supplier operating in southern africa, reportedly factors seasonal forecasts into their recommendations to farmers, using different animals to represent the climatic sensitivity of groups of maize cultivars (malusalila, 2000
How might some of the resource constraints to farm-level responses to advance information be alleviated?
some of the resource constraints to farm-level responses to advance information might be alleviated if the information would also enable market institutions to profitably coordinate supply of financing and key production inputs to demand by farmers
What may offer opportunities to improve management of input and credit supply, production and price volatility (e. g. through food trade), food crises and insurance?
it seems likely that more effective systematic use of advance information about climate and its impacts on agriculture may also offer opportunities to improve management of input and credit supply, production and price volatility (e. g. through food trade), food crises and insurance - in ways that reduce risks and increase opportunities at the farm level
efforts to promote and support the use of seasonal forecasts for agriculture and food security in ssa have typically targeted either farmers or various institutional users, but have seldom explicitly looked for synergies between the different levels of decision making. although evidence is lacking, it seems likely that more effective systematic use of advance information about climate and its impacts on agriculture may also offer opportunities to improve management of input and credit supply, production and price volatility (e. g. through food trade), food crises and insurance - in ways that reduce risks and increase opportunities at the farm level. coordinating input and credit supply some of the resource constraints to farm-level responses to advance information might be alleviated if the information would also enable market institutions to profitably coordinate supply of financing and key production inputs to demand by farmers. there is anecdotal evidence that some agricultural input suppliers in ssa already factor seasonal forecasts into their operations. seedco, a seed producer and supplier operating in southern africa, reportedly factors seasonal forecasts into their recommendations to farmers, using different animals to represent the climatic sensitivity of groups of maize cultivars (malusalila, 2000). faida seeds, which contracts
About  climate change what the Northern governments and corporate polluters have been opposed?
northern governments and corporate polluters have been opposed to the structural changes needed to truly combat the problem
What happended Before the Earth Summit?
before the earth summit, an international negotiating committee (inc) was set up to formulate a draft text
What the the INC aegued against?
inc, both the us and the eu argued against binding reductions in greenhouse gas emissions
from the beginning of international discussions about climate change northern governments and corporate polluters have been opposed to the structural changes needed to truly combat the problem. before the earth summit, an international negotiating committee (inc) was set up to formulate a draft text. within the inc, both the us and the eu argued against binding reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.20the earth summit did however produce the united nations framework convention on climate change (unfccc). despite some obvious merits such as a recognition that climate change was an urgent issue for the first time in an international agreement, the unfccc did not include any commitment to legally binding emission reductions. nor did it recognize the role of industry, over-consumption and free trade policies in exacerbating climate change. meanwhile in 1991, the un conference on trade and development (unctad) had set up a department on the trade in greenhouse gases. emissions trading then found its way onto the inc's agenda at its third session held in nairobi in september, 1991. unctad also set up the international emissions trading association (ieta),
What are the major source of climate change knowledge?
climate models are our major source of knowledge about climate change
Which method cannot plausibly correct climate change trends?
current bias correction methods cannot plausibly correct climate change trends, and have limited ability to downscale
climate models are our major source of knowledge about climate change. the impacts of climate change are often quantified by impact models. whereas impact models typically require high resolution unbiased input data, global and regional climate models are in general biased, their resolution is often lower than desired. thus, many users of climate model data apply some form of bias correction and downscaling. a fundamental assumption of bias correction is that the considered climate model produces skillful input for a bias correction, including a plausible representation of climate change. current bias correction methods cannot plausibly correct climate change trends, and have limited ability to downscale. cross validation of marginal aspects is not sufficient to evaluate bias correction and needs to be complemented by further analyses. future research should address the development of stochastic models for downscaling and approaches to explicitly incorporate process understanding. keywords regional climate modelling * bias correction * downscaling * statistical post-processing * model output statistics
What does the fascination of deterministic thinking offer?
the appearance of 'naturalistic' explanations (justifications?) of cultural or economic dominance (as in past variants of determinism
What does the author say about the case of climate change?
naturalistic' accounts of the future which evacuate it of human agency
the allure of determinist thinking is that it offers the appearance of 'naturalistic' explanations (justifications?) of cultural or economic dominance (as in past variants of determinism), or 'naturalistic' accounts of the future which evacuate it of human agency (as i have contended is the case with climate change today). in contrast to earlier climate determinisms which flowered in the ascendant and optimistic imperial cultures of classical greece, and of imperialist europe and a youthful united states, i suggest that the climate reductionism i have described here is nurtured by elements of a western cultural pessimism which promote the pathologies of vulnerability, fatalism and fear109
How does the composition of the biogas varies?
the overall composition of the biogas produced during anaerobic digestion varies according to the environmental conditions prevailing in the reactor
When does the composition of the biogas changes?
the composition changes quickly during the initial start-up of the system and also when the digestion process is inhibited
What is the composition of typical methane and carbon dioxide fractions present in the biogas?
in the anaerobic treatment of domestic sewage, typical methane and carbon dioxide fractions present in the biogas are 70 to 80% and 20 to 30%, respectively
the overall composition of the biogas produced during anaerobic digestion varies according to the environmental conditions prevailing in the reactor. the composition changes quickly during the initial start-up of the system and also when the digestion process is inhibited. for reactors operating in a stable manner, the composition of the biogas produced is reasonably uniform. however, the carbon dioxide/methane ratio can vary substantially, depending on the characteristics of the organic compound to be degraded. in the anaerobic treatment of domestic sewage, typical methane and carbon dioxide fractions present in the biogas are 70 to 80% and 20 to 30%, respectively. the methane produced in anaerobic digestion processes is quickly separated from the liquid phase due to its low solubility in water. this results in a high degree of degradation of the liquid wastes, once this gas leaves the reactor to the gaseous phase. on the other hand, carbon dioxide is much more soluble in water than methane, and leaves the reactor partly as gas and partly dissolved in the liquid effluent.
What are represented by a truncated series of spherical harmonics with triangular truncation in the atmosphere model?
in the atmosphere model (roeckner et al. 2003) vorticity, divergence, temperature, and the logarithm of surface pressure are represented by a truncated series of spherical harmonics with triangular truncation
What is the name of the model that employs the primitive equations for a hydrostatic Boussinesq fluid with a free surface?
the max planck institute ocean model (mpi-om; marsland et al. 2003) employs the primitive equations for a hydrostatic boussinesq fluid with a free surface
What is a special feature of the coupled model?
a special feature of the coupled model is that the surface wind stress over the ocean is calculated relative to the ocean current
the coupled model consists of new versions for both the atmosphere and the ocean components. in the atmosphere model (roeckner et al. 2003) vorticity, divergence, temperature, and the logarithm of surface pressure are represented by a truncated series of spherical harmonics with triangular truncation 63 (t63), whereas the advection of water vapor, cloud liquid water, and cloud ice is treated by a flux-form semi-lagrangian scheme. a hybrid sigma/pressure system is used in the vertical direction (31 layers with the top model level at 10 hpa). the model uses state-of-the-art parameterizations for shortwave and longwave radiation, stratiform clouds, cumulus convection, boundary layer and land surface processes, and gravity wave drag. the max planck institute ocean model (mpi-om; marsland et al. 2003) employs the primitive equations for a hydrostatic boussinesq fluid with a free surface. the vertical discretization is on 40 z levels, and the bottom topography is resolved by means of partial grid cells. the ocean has a nominal resolution of 1.5deg and the poles of the curvilinear grid are shifted to land areas over greenland and antarctica. the parameterization of physical processes include along-isopycnal diffusion, horizontal tracer mixing by advection with unresolved eddies, vertical eddy mixing, near-surface wind stirring, convective overturning, and slope convection. concentration and thickness of sea ice are calculated by means of a dynamic and thermodynamic sea ice model. in the coupled model (jungclaus et al. 2006), the ocean passes to the atmosphere the sst, sea ice concentration, sea ice thickness, snow depth on ice, and the ocean surface velocities. the atmosphere runs with these boundary values for one coupling time step (one day) and accumulates the forcing fluxes. these fluxes are then transferred to the ocean. in addition to wind stress, the heat and freshwater fluxes are passed to the ocean for the calculation of the turbulent wind mixing. all fluxes are calculated separately for ice-covered and open water partitions of the grid cells. river runoff and glacier calving are treated interactively in the atmosphere model and the respective freshwater fluxes are passed to the ocean together with the atmospheric precipitation minus evaporation field. a special feature of the coupled model is that the surface wind stress over the ocean is calculated relative to the ocean current.
How are extratropical cyclones effecting our climate?
extratropical cyclones
What is our climate response to cyclones?
climate response
How does the cyclone-tracking technique work?
cyclone-tracking technique
in this study, we have investigated the response of the winter (djf) and summer (jja) north atlantic and european extratropical cyclones to climate change in the cmip5 models. this is motivated by the large socioeconomic impacts that changes in the location and intensity of extratropical cyclones might have on europe. the climate response is computed as a difference between 30-yr periods of the historical (hist; 1976-2005) and future day (2070-99) simulations in the rcp4.5 and rcp8.5 emission scenarios. a cyclone-tracking technique (hodges 1994, 1999) is used to quantify the response in the number of cyclones and in their intensity, which is measured by the maximum wind speed at 850 hpa (dynamical intensity) and by the area-averaged precipitation (hydrological intensity). in contrast to previous studies that only looked at cyclone tracks in individual or small groups of models, the inspection of a large multimodel ensemble allows the uncertainties in the projection to be quantified (sansom et al. 2013). with regard to the response in the rcp4.5 scenario, the main results of this study are as follows:
Why is the current global fisheries production of -160 million tons rising?
current global fisheries production of -160 million tons is rising as a result of increases in aquaculture production
There is a strong interaction between the effects of fishing and the effects of climate, how does fishing impact the climate?
there are strong interactions be tween the effects of fishing and the effects of climate because fishing reduces the age, size, and geographic diversity of popula tions and the biodiversity of marine ecosystems, making both more sensitive to additional stresses such as climate change
What is the principal feasible means of reducing the impacts of climate change?
reducing fishing mortality in the majority of fisheries, which are currently fully exploited or overexploited, is the principal feasible means of reducing the impacts of climate change
k. m. brander* international council for the exploration of the sea, 44-46 hans christian andersens boulevard, dk-1553 copenhagen v, denmark edited by william easterling, pennsylvania state university, university park, pa, and accepted by the editorial board september 26, 2007 (received for review march 6, 2007) current global fisheries production of -160 million tons is rising as a result of increases in aquaculture production. a number of climate-related threats to both capture fisheries and aquaculture are identified, but we have low confidence in predictions of future fisheries production because of uncertainty over future global aquatic net primary production and the transfer of this production through the food chain to human consumption. recent changes in the distribution and productivity of a number of fish species can be ascribed with high confidence to regional climate variability, such as the el ni?o-southern oscillation. future production may in crease in some high-latitude regions because of warming and decreased ice cover, but the dynamics in low-latitude regions are governed by different processes, and production may decline as a result of reduced vertical mixing of the water column and, hence, reduced recycling of nutrients. there are strong interactions be tween the effects of fishing and the effects of climate because fishing reduces the age, size, and geographic diversity of popula tions and the biodiversity of marine ecosystems, making both more sensitive to additional stresses such as climate change. inland fisheries are additionally threatened by changes in precipitation and water management. the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events is likely to have a major impact on future fisheries production in both inland and marine systems. reducing fishing mortality in the majority of fisheries, which are currently fully exploited or overexploited, is the principal feasible means of reducing the impacts of climate change. fisheries net primary production
Define the characterstics of Berlin offer
among renewables, the unexploited roof and facade surfaces in berlin offer a huge potential for the use of photovoltaic and solar thermal collectors and thus ideal conditions for the retail trade, for installation, for solar architecture and for technology-related services
Which/ year started the energy policy in Berlin has been shifting?
since the mid-1990s, energy policy in berlin has been shifting towards principally cost-neutral instruments, such as voluntary agreements with the utilities and the housing industry to stimulate the demand for solar technologies
Possibilities of Effects surface grew rapidly?
more recently, the senate defined a solar electricity quota for the supply of public buildings, concluded a supply contract with a green electricity trader, and offered the roofs of public buildings free of charge to investors in solar collectors. accordingly, the photovoltaic and solar thermal collector surface grew rapidly
among renewables, the unexploited roof and facade surfaces in berlin offer a huge potential for the use of photovoltaic and solar thermal collectors and thus ideal conditions for the retail trade, for installation, for solar architecture and for technology-related services. additionally, the high density of universities, research institutes and knowledge-transfer organizations in the field of solar research creates an optimal environment for r&d activities and spin-off companies. since the mid-1990s, energy policy in berlin has been shifting towards principally cost-neutral instruments, such as voluntary agreements with the utilities and the housing industry to stimulate the demand for solar technologies. more recently, the senate defined a solar electricity quota for the supply of public buildings, concluded a supply contract with a green electricity trader, and offered the roofs of public buildings free of charge to investors in solar collectors. accordingly, the photovoltaic and solar thermal collector surface grew rapidly
What causes direct water removal (ions) or inputs to streams or catchments?
human impact may involve direct water removal (ions) or inputs to streams or catchments
What causes total rearrangement of surface and subsurface pathways?
extreme impact (e.g. urbanization) may be associated with a total rearrangement of surface and subsurface pathways, in addition to changes in soil properties, vegetation, etc
According to passage, what controls the anthropogenic baseflow?
anthropogenic controls on baseflow addresses patterns observed with forest removal, urbanization, and agriculture
widespread vegetation change and soil disturbance accompany most forms of land-use change, and such impacts are often sufficient to alter the timing and quantity of baseflow (figure 1). additionally, human impact may involve direct water removal (ions) or inputs to streams or catchments. table 1 summarizes baseflow response to several common forms of human impact. extreme impact (e.g. urbanization) may be associated with a total rearrangement of surface and subsurface pathways, in addition to changes in soil properties, vegetation, etc. this section on anthropogenic controls on baseflow addresses patterns observed with forest removal, urbanization, and agriculture.
How the sedimentation rate of the KB cores was estimated ?
to obtain an accurate age/depth model for detailed reconstructions, the sedimentation rate of the kb cores was estimated using 210pb dating based on alpha spectrometry with 210po
What is the result of  technical problem?
measurements were obtained for l. francis and pas-de-fond (six per core, table 2) but a technical problem resulting from sediment storage unfortunately prevented 210pb measurements at l. a la pessiere
How to avoid sediments in hardwater?
a pool of terrestrial plant macro-remains was preferred to bulk sediments to avoid any 'hardwater' effect on 14c dating. macroremains were rare in the a la pessiere core and radiometric dating was therefore carried out on bulk sediment (table 3
to obtain an accurate age/depth model for detailed reconstructions, the sedimentation rate of the kb cores was estimated using 210pb dating based on alpha spectrometry with 210po. measurements were obtained for l. francis and pas-de-fond (six per core, table 2) but a technical problem resulting from sediment storage unfortunately prevented 210pb measurements at l. a la pessiere. radiocarbon dating of terrestrial plant macroremains in l. francis and pas-de-fond was carried out by accelerator mass spectrometry (ams) (table 3). a pool of terrestrial plant macro-remains was preferred to bulk sediments to avoid any 'hardwater' effect on 14c dating. macroremains were rare in the a la pessiere core and radiometric dating was therefore carried out on bulk sediment (table 3). however, there was sufficient material for ams dating of terrestrial plant macroremains immediately below the clay-gyttja interface, and this allowed us to correct the date at the bottom, as obtained from the bulk sample for the influence of carbonates (fig. 2). the 14c measurements were calibrated to dendrochronological years (stuiver et al. 1998).
What will cause stress to native flora and fauna as they adjust to climate change
in addition to impacting terrestrial carbon stocks and human livelihoods, abrupt changes in fire will stress native flora and fauna as they adjust to climate change
When was the trailing edge?
this will be especially important in marginal or '' trailing edge '' habitats (davis and shaw 2001, hampe and petit 2005
What causes longer fires
although sharp decreases in fire activity are less likely to capture our attention, reductions in this key ecological disturbance may have important trickle-down effects in many fire-prone regions
projections reported here highlight the potential for rapid disruptions in future fire activity, and consensus on such alterations strengthens through time. in addition to impacting terrestrial carbon stocks and human livelihoods, abrupt changes in fire will stress native flora and fauna as they adjust to climate change (loarie et al. 2009) and threaten biodiversity in many conservation areas (myers 2006, nelson and chomitz 2009). the ecological severity of projected changes will depend on the degree to which organisms are fire-sensitive or fire-adapted. this will be especially important in marginal or '' trailing edge '' habitats (davis and shaw 2001, hampe and petit 2005), which may be vulnerable to relatively sudden, fire-punctuated range contractions instead of more gradual, climate-driven transitions. conversely, future fire may also act as a disturbance that frees up space and resources more quickly than would otherwise occur, facilitating establishment of '' leading edge '' populations (landha"usser et al. 2010). although sharp decreases in fire activity are less likely to capture our attention, reductions in this key ecological disturbance may have important trickle-down effects in many fire-prone regions (bond and van wilgen 1996, krawchuk et al. 2009), and longer fire intervals could conceivably make some areas more vulnerable to catastrophic wildfires over time. linking fire probabilities to fire intensities and area burned are thus important next steps. a
What are the key factors in understanding the Earth's climate?
climate forcing and climate sensitivity are two key factors in understanding earth's climate
Is there any considerable interest in reducing our uncertainty about climate sensitivity?
there is considerable interest in decreasing our uncertainty in climate sensitivity
What does this study explore?
this study explores the role of these two factors in climate simulations of the 20th century
climate forcing and climate sensitivity are two key factors in understanding earth's climate. there is considerable interest in decreasing our uncertainty in climate sensitivity. this study explores the role of these two factors in climate simulations of the 20th century. it is found that the total anthropogenic forcing for a wide range of climate models differs by a factor of two and that the total forcing is inversely correlated to climate sensitivity. much of the uncertainty in total anthropogenic forcing derives from a threefold range of uncertainty in the aerosol forcing used in the simulations. citation: kiehl, j. t. (2007), twentieth century climate model response and climate sensitivity, geophys. res. lett. 34 l22710, doi:10.1029/ 2007gl031383.
What does require addressing the global challenges of climate change, food security, and poverty alleviation?
addressing the global challenges of climate change, food security, and poverty alleviation requires enhancing the adaptive capacity and mitigation potential of agricultural landscapes across the tropics
What can many of the tropical agricultural systems provide?
here, we demonstrate that many tropical agricultural systems can provide both mitigation and adaptation benefits if they are designed and managed appropriately and if the larger landscape context is considered
What are the benefits of intentional integration of adaptation and mitigation activities in agricultural landscapes?
intentional integration of adaptation and mitigation activities in agricultural landscapes offers significant benefits that go beyond the scope of climate change to food security, biodiversity conservation, and poverty alleviation
addressing the global challenges of climate change, food security, and poverty alleviation requires enhancing the adaptive capacity and mitigation potential of agricultural landscapes across the tropics. however, adaptation and mitigation activities tend to be approached separately due to a variety of technical, political, financial, and socioeconomic constraints. here, we demonstrate that many tropical agricultural systems can provide both mitigation and adaptation benefits if they are designed and managed appropriately and if the larger landscape context is considered. many of the activities needed for adaptation and mitigation in tropical agricultural landscapes are the same needed for sustainable agriculture more generally, but thinking at the landscape scale opens a new dimension for achieving synergies. intentional integration of adaptation and mitigation activities in agricultural landscapes offers significant benefits that go beyond the scope of climate change to food security, biodiversity conservation, and poverty alleviation. however, achieving these objectives will require transformative changes in current policies, institutional arrangements, and funding mechanisms to foster broad-scale adoption of climate-smart approaches in agricultural landscapes.
What are the spectral coefficients of Q and Qo respectively?
qmn and qomn are the spectral coefficients of q and qo respectively
Which variable is considered to be the nudging coefficient?
kmn is the nudging coefficient, which can vary with m and n and also with height; m and n are the wave numbers in the x and y directions in polar stereographic projection that roughly correspond to the east-west and north-south directions, respectively
The wave vector components km and kn in the x and y directions depend on which domain sizes?
the wave vector components km and kn in the x and y directions depend on the domain size dx and dy in the corresponding direction and wave number
q is any of the prognostic variables to be nudged, l is the model operator, and qo is the variable from the driving fields. qmn and qomn are the spectral coefficients of q and qo respectively. kmn is the nudging coefficient, which can vary with m and n and also with height; m and n are the wave numbers in the x and y directions in polar stereographic projection that roughly correspond to the east-west and north-south directions, respectively. the wave vector components km and kn in the x and y directions depend on the domain size dx and dy in the corresponding direction and wave number,
Overall are politicians saying that policy support for climate change will lose jobs?
the employment discussion has been particularly fierce in the usa. several politicians have made it an explicit condition of their support of any climate policy that it would not cost jobs
In what areas will jobs be created when exploring new climate change policy?
they assert that the usa's reluctance to act on climate change has given europe a competitive edge in new, low-carbon technologies such as wind and solar power - a field that us companies used to lead. to analyse this question it is useful to think of the employment impact of climate policy in three stages. climate policy will have: # a short-term effect when jobs are lost in directly affected sectors and new ones are created in replacement industries. we can think of this as the direct employment effect
Will it be a simple thing to replace the jobs lost with the jobs made when policies regarding climate change?
his note discusses each of these effects in turn. the focus is on job numbers, although we recognize that this is only half the story. the nature of the jobs created may differ from the nature of jobs lost, and this will have repercussions on labour productivity and pay. for a full assessment, this would have to be taken into account. however, productivity information is scant and little will therefore be said about the relative quality of jobs
the employment discussion has been particularly fierce in the usa. several politicians have made it an explicit condition of their support of any climate policy that it would not cost jobs. advocates of climate change action also use employment as an argument. former president bill clinton emphasized the job opportunities that climate change might create (financial times, 2007). others have highlighted the innovation (and hence job creation) potential of climate change policy. they assert that the usa's reluctance to act on climate change has given europe a competitive edge in new, low-carbon technologies such as wind and solar power - a field that us companies used to lead. to analyse this question it is useful to think of the employment impact of climate policy in three stages. climate policy will have: # a short-term effect when jobs are lost in directly affected sectors and new ones are created in replacement industries. we can think of this as the direct employment effect. # a medium-term effect when the impact of climate change policy ripples through the economy. jobs are created and lost along the value chains of affected industries. these are the higher-order, economy-wide effects of climate policy. # a long-term effect when innovation and the development of new technologies create opportunities for investment and growth. we can call this the dynamic effect of climate policy. this note discusses each of these effects in turn. the focus is on job numbers, although we recognize that this is only half the story. the nature of the jobs created may differ from the nature of jobs lost, and this will have repercussions on labour productivity and pay. for a full assessment, this would have to be taken into account. however, productivity information is scant and little will therefore be said about the relative quality of jobs.
Define vulnerability assessment ?
the vulnerability assessment presented here is qualitative, but the information available for the gbr is extensive compared with many other tropical regions of the world
Explain about  significant gaps?
there are significant gaps in our knowledge that once filled would allow a quantitative assessment of the effects of climate change on mangroves and associated wetlands, knowledge that would aid in the development of much needed tools for managing wetlands in the gbr and elsewhere
Define capacity to model the effects of sea level rise on intertidal wetlands?
 a capacity to model the effects of sea level rise on intertidal wetlands in detail in many areas of the gbr. detailed digital elevation models of mangrove, salt marsh, salt flats and coastal plains and fine scale classification of the coast into typological units based on geomorphological characteristics would aid the development of models
the vulnerability assessment presented here is qualitative, but the information available for the gbr is extensive compared with many other tropical regions of the world. there are significant gaps in our knowledge that once filled would allow a quantitative assessment of the effects of climate change on mangroves and associated wetlands, knowledge that would aid in the development of much needed tools for managing wetlands in the gbr and elsewhere. critical information gaps that need to be addressed include: 1. a capacity to model the effects of sea level rise on intertidal wetlands in detail in many areas of the gbr. detailed digital elevation models of mangrove, salt marsh, salt flats and coastal plains and fine scale classification of the coast into typological units based on geomorphological characteristics would aid the development of models. additionally more informed linkages between geomorphological classifications and ecological and physical processes would facilitate prediction of the effects of sea level rise on ecosystem services. 2. rod surface elevation table installations that can measure the trajectory of wetland surface elevation relative to rising sea level and provide an experimental framework to link processes influencing surface elevation (eg variation in rainfall, nutrient enrichment and sedimentation) to wetland stability. part ii: species and species groups
What has greatly affected the fluxes from the land into coastal ecosystems?
human activities
What is the results of these changes in fluxes?
resulted in too little freshwater, too much or too little sediments, or water pollution entering estuaries and coastal waters, they have become critical concerns for coastal management
What are the two pervasive management challenges to be considered?
alterations of sediment transport and nutrient over enrichment
the fluxes from the land into coastal ecosystems have been greatly affected by human activities (see section 3.2). freshwater flows have often been reduced, and soils have eroded. moreover, the land-based loads of important chemical constituents, ranging from toxic manufactured chemicals to nutrient elements essential to life, have often increased (section 3.3). where changes in these fluxes have resulted in too little freshwater, too much or too little sediments, or water pollution entering estuaries and coastal waters, they have become critical concerns for coastal management. as climate change alters patterns and amounts of precipitation and river discharge, the amounts of sediment and dissolved substances carried into coastal areas will add additional complexity to the management challenge. two pervasive management challenges are considered here: alterations of sediment transport and nutrient over enrichment.
Do growing season temperature changes or changes in preciptation cause a greater uncertainty for crops?
we find that, in general, uncertainties in average growing season temperature changes and the crop responses to these changes represent a greater source of uncertainty for future impacts than do associated changes in precipitation
Should temperature changes in relation to crops receive increased attention?
rather, it is our belief that the impact of temperature uncertainties, and in particular the uncertainties in crop response to temperature, should receive increased attention
Can the sensitivity of crops to warming be experimentally tested?
unlike climate sensitivity, however, the sensitivity of crops to warming can be experimentally tested
we find that, in general, uncertainties in average growing season temperature changes and the crop responses to these changes represent a greater source of uncertainty for future impacts than do associated changes in precipitation. this finding stems from the fact that future temperature changes will be far greater relative to year-to-year variability than changes in precipitation, even when considering the most extreme precipitation scenarios. these results do not imply that reduced uncertainties in rainfall projections would be useless, as projections for several critically important crops still derive much of their uncertainty from rainfall projections, such as rice in south asia and wheat in west asia. moreover, the spatial scale of the datasets used here likely mute the importance of rainfall. rather, it is our belief that the impact of temperature uncertainties, and in particular the uncertainties in crop response to temperature, should receive increased attention. the common approach of representing uncertainty only by examining output from different climate models risks a gross over-estimation of our current ability to predict agricultural responses to climate change. this conclusion is also supported by the few studies that have examined yield impacts with two separate process-based crop models. these studies have reported discrepancies between crop models as big or greater than those that result from different climate models, and attributed these discrepancies largely to the temperature coefficients in the models 10 23 ]. thus, the results presented here are unlikely to result from the exact specification of yield responses in equation 1 ), or to the fact that we relied on time series models rather than processbased models or cross-sectional data. we considered here only uncertainties that relate to growing season average temperature and precipitation. impacts of extreme events, pests and diseases, changes in solar radiation, and many other factors also add uncertainties to projections. in our opinion, all of these effects are likely to be captured by or secondary to those of average temperature change, but further work is needed to test this point. for example, the distribution of rainfall within growing seasons may change, with heavier but less frequent rainfall events in many regions 3 ], which could substantially change the relationship between growing season average precipitation and crop production. we also do not consider here adaptive management changes, which represent an additional but poorly known source of uncertainty in future impacts, even for the relatively short-term year of 2030 discussed here. despite these other uncertainties, the uncertain nature of crop responses to mean temperature change will remain an important factor for any risk assessment of climate change impacts that relies on accurate quantification of uncertainty. crop model inter-comparison projects, similar to those used to assess climate model uncertainty 3 ], may be useful to this end in the short-run. unlike climate sensitivity, however, the sensitivity of crops to warming can be experimentally tested. warming trials for major crops across the range of environmental and management conditions in which they are most commonly grown may therefore be a particularly useful means of further prioritizing and focusing adaptation efforts.
What are stabilisation ponds?
stabilisation ponds are units specially designed and built with the purpose of treating sewage
What is the construction of a stabilisation pond based on?
however, the construction is simple and is principally based on earth movement for digging, filling and embankment preparation
What do bacteria use organic matter for?
these bacteria use the organic matter as energy source, which is released through respiration
maturation ponds a) facultative ponds stabilisation ponds are units specially designed and built with the purpose of treating sewage. however, the construction is simple and is principally based on earth movement for digging, filling and embankment preparation. when facultative ponds receive raw sewage, they are also called primary ponds (a secondary pond would be the one which would receive its influent from a previous treatment unit, such as anaerobic ponds - see item b in this section). amongst the stabilisation ponds systems, the process of facultative ponds is the simplest, relying only on natural phenomenon. the influent enters continuously in one end of the pond and leaves in the opposite end. during this time, which is of the order of many days, a series of events contribute to the purification of the sewage. part of the organic matter in suspension particulate bod tends to settle, constituting the bottom sludge. this sludge undergoes a decomposition process by anaerobic microorganisms and is converted into carbon dioxide, methane and other compounds. the inert fraction (non-biodegradable) stays in this bottom layer. the dissolved organic matter soluble bod ), together with the small-dimension organic matter in suspension fine particulate bod ), does not settle and stays dispersed in the liquid mass. its decomposition is through facultative bacteria that have the capacity to survive, either in the presence or in the absence of free oxygen (but presence of nitrate), hence the designation of facultative, which also defines the name of the pond. these bacteria use the organic matter as energy source, which is released through respiration. the presence of oxygen is necessary in aerobic respiration, and it is supplied to the medium by the photosynthesis carried out by the algae. there is an equilibrium between consumption and the production of oxygen and carbon dioxide (see figure 4.8). overview of wastewater treatment systems 185 bacteria  respiration
what are the  hypothesis for a range of potential consequences of arctic warming and a shrinking ice cover?
a range of potential consequences of arctic warming and a shrinking ice cover can be hypothesized, as follows. (i) reductions in albedo and increased open water would have significant effects on energy balances and atmospheric and oceanic circulation in the high latitudes. (ii) exposure of vast areas of the arctic ocean with cold open water, which has a high capacity for co2 absorption, could become a new and important sink of atmospheric co2 (anderson and kaltin, 2001,). (iii) broad changes in the marine ecosystem
what is the example of Broad changes in the marine ecosystem?
broad changes in the marine ecosystem, e.g. changes in plankton in the north atlantic due to less ice and greater inflow of melt water
what are the impact of Broad changes in the marine ecosystem?
could have a negative impact on arctic and subarctic marine biodiversity. however, there would be a larger area for potential fisheries, as well as increased offshore activities and marine transportation
a range of potential consequences of arctic warming and a shrinking ice cover can be hypothesized, as follows. (i) reductions in albedo and increased open water would have significant effects on energy balances and atmospheric and oceanic circulation in the high latitudes. (ii) exposure of vast areas of the arctic ocean with cold open water, which has a high capacity for co2 absorption, could become a new and important sink of atmospheric co2 (anderson and kaltin, 2001,). (iii) broad changes in the marine ecosystem, e.g. changes in plankton in the north atlantic due to less ice and greater inflow of melt water (beaugrand et al., 2002), could have a negative impact on arctic and subarctic marine biodiversity. however, there would be a larger area for potential fisheries, as well as increased offshore activities and marine transportation,
Describe WMO?
the gcos program, founded in 1992 by the world meteorological organization (wmo), the intergovernmental oceanographic commission of the united nations educational, scientific and cultural organisation (ioc/unesco), the united nations environment programme (unep), and the international council for science (icsu
GCOS Project Description?
gcos 1995; houghton et al. 2012). the initial plan called for a system based on (i) fundamental scientific priorities and (ii) prioritized observational requirements, informed by scientific and technical progress and evolving user needs
Describe NRC?
it identified "principal observations" to be addressed by a set of space missions, noting earlier work in support of short-term climate predictions (nrc 1994
provenance. some 20 years ago, the international community began exploring a more coordinated approach to observing climate on a global scale. the gcos program, founded in 1992 by the world meteorological organization (wmo), the intergovernmental oceanographic commission of the united nations educational, scientific and cultural organisation (ioc/unesco), the united nations environment programme (unep), and the international council for science (icsu), was mandated to define objectives and recommend coordinated action for a global observing system for climate, building on and enhancing existing systems (gcos 1995; houghton et al. 2012). the initial plan called for a system based on (i) fundamental scientific priorities and (ii) prioritized observational requirements, informed by scientific and technical progress and evolving user needs. it identified "principal observations" to be addressed by a set of space missions, noting earlier work in support of short-term climate predictions (nrc 1994)
What does the domains of energy efficiency and nuclear power illustrate?
the domains of energy efficiency and nuclear power illustrate how existing practices, institutions, interests and technologies have been reframed as being 'low carbon' in response to climate change
What did Toke describe about climate change in 2000?
toke (2000), for example, describes how climate change is the latest of a long list of policy problems to which energy efficiency measures such as insulation and window glazing have been attached
What did Bickerstaff describe about nuclear power in 2007?
bickerstaff et. al. (2007) describe the way in which nuclear power has been reframed as a solution to climate change
the domains of energy efficiency and nuclear power illustrate how existing practices, institutions, interests and technologies have been reframed as being 'low carbon' in response to climate change. toke (2000), for example, describes how climate change is the latest of a long list of policy problems to which energy efficiency measures such as insulation and window glazing have been attached. similarly, bickerstaff et. al. (2007) describe the way in which nuclear power has been reframed as a solution to climate change. there are strong parallels here with kingdon's framework, in which policy solutions become attached to problems in unpredictable and non-linear ways (kingdon, 2003).
Why is the precipitation-evaporation budget of interest?
it governs the distribution of snow cover, because it is affects sea-glacier flow, and because it defines the net ablation zones where sea ice may be relatively thin
What is shown in figure 10?
annually and zonally averaged p - e statistics are shown in figure 10
Is the accumulation rate positively or negatively correlated with CO2 and temperature increases?
the accumulation rate is very small, under a centimeter per year of liquid water equivalent, increasing modestly as co2 and temperature increase
the precipitation-evaporation budget is of interest because it governs the distribution of snow cover, because it is affects sea-glacier flow, and because it defines the net ablation zones where sea ice may be relatively thin. annually and zonally averaged p - e statistics are shown in figure 10. as expected from previous simulations, and from basic thermodynamic arguments pierrehumbert 2002], the accumulation rate is very small, under a centimeter per year of liquid water equivalent, increasing modestly as co2 and temperature increase. the region from about 10n to 10s is a net ablation zone, where new water vapor enters the atmosphere by evaporation from sea ice, which in turn is replenished by freezing at the base. most of this is snowed
In which century climate-change impacts arecollected and analysed for trends?
stimulated by concerns about climate-change impacts, a fraction of this rich asset of information has been collected and analysed for trends in the course of the last decade of the 20th century
What was demonstrated in this development?
the value of sustained efforts in nature observation is demonstrated by this development
Write about the spring phenology?
however, spring phenology does not respond to global mean temperatures, but rather to regional changes in winter and spring temperatures with a high weight of temperatures in weeks immediately preceding the triggering of the phenological switches
many phenological observations, including long time series which are a valuable source of information for climate changeimpact studies, were made in the context of diverse applications of phenology (e.g. agrometeorology, fundamental ecological research). stimulated by concerns about climate-change impacts, a fraction of this rich asset of information has been collected and analysed for trends in the course of the last decade of the 20th century. the value of sustained efforts in nature observation is demonstrated by this development. compilation of old series should be continued; reduction of this important, 'oldfashioned', low-tech element of earth observation under rising budgetary constraints should be avoided. in parallel, the time series of satellite-derived measures of surface greenness have grown over a sufficient period to allow the first time-series analyses of spring green-up and length of vegetation period. a powerful new tool for the study of integrated landscape-level phenological development has emerged. these two sources of information complement each other, but do not observe the same traits. while ground observations provide information about responses of individual species (and sometimes also the biological variability within the species) at a given (micro)-site, satellite measures allow study of the composite responses of phenological switches, lai development and cover fraction for many vegetation elements integrated over landscape fractions. the rather modest correlations reported so far between estimates of interannual variation in dbb and dgu are to be expected, based on these differences. the challenge is to improve spatial interpolation of ground observation data and to derive tested algorithms that allow for analysis of satellite signals. the combination of the two approaches has great potential in addressing scaling issues between individual plant and ecosystem responses. progress along the latter line can probably be increased if the rich wealth of results accumulated within phenological studies in phytocoenology (tuxen wojterska, 1977) is included in future studies. further progress can be expected from the use of new generations of satellites (modis, vegetation) with higher spatial, temporal and spectral resolution. nesting of finer-resolution images in high temporal resolution images, in combination with higher-resolution biotope mapping, has a lot of prospects. the analyses of spring phenology in middle and high latitudes showed vegetation responses that are consistent with expectations based on climate-change trends. ground observations have shown advancement of spring bud burst and flowering dates in parallel with the global warming trend, and ndvi time series show a trend for advanced green-up in spring. the detected trends are of the order of magnitude of several days per decade. these trends parallel the advanced drawdown of atmospheric co2 in spring/summer. this also holds for the time course of the respective changes, with a plateau phase until the 1970s and then an accelerated advancement. hence three independent measures - localscale observations of individual species; spatially integrating satellite-based monitoring of surface greenness; and the fingerprint of seasonal activity of vegetation on the atmospheric record - qualitatively yield the same result. however, differences in trend estimates varying in the range 2-5 d per decade still need to be resolved. these differences may be related in part to variation of the trends in time. some first indications suggest that trends in spring phenology roughly follow the temporal evolution of the global warming trend (ipcc, 2001), with a period of warming from the end of the 19th century through to the 1950s, followed by a period of stabilization and then a second phase of accelerated warming from the late 1970s onward. however, spring phenology does not respond to global mean temperatures, but rather to regional changes in winter and spring temperatures with a high weight of temperatures in weeks immediately preceding the triggering of the phenological switches. the causes of regional and temporal variation of trends in phenology need to be studied further.
What percent of confidence do the bars show?
the bars indicate 95% confidence intervals and the points without bars indicate the reference category for a given agreement dimension
What are estimates based on?
estimates are based on the regression of agreement support on dummy variables for values of the agreement dimensions with standard errors clustered by respondent
What is the number scale individuals were graded with?
we measured political knowledge by asking individuals to indicate the number of years there are in one full term in office for a senator/mp on a scale from 1 to 8 years
fig. s4 effect of agreement dimensions on public support for global climate change cooperation in france, germany, the united kingdom, and the united states by level of political knowledge (term length). this plot shows estimates of the effect of randomly assigned agreement features on the probability of supporting an agreement. estimates are based on the regression of agreement support on dummy variables for values of the agreement dimensions with standard errors clustered by respondent. the bars indicate 95% confidence intervals and the points without bars indicate the reference category for a given agreement dimension. we measured political knowledge by asking individuals to indicate the number of years there are in one full term in office for a senator/mp on a scale from 1 to 8 years. correct answers were coded as one and incorrect answers as zero.
How were energy police in Berlin categorised until the mid 1990s?
until the middle of the 1990s energy policy in berlin was based essentially on two main pillars: first, a close ownership relationship and corporative arrangements between the city government and the regional monopolists; and, second, generous public subsidies for the ecological modernization of energy infrastructures
What power did the Senate formally have?
moreover, the senate formally had the power to regulate the utilities' energy investments and prices
What change happened after the mid-1990s?
a radical change started from the mid-1990s. since then traditional forms of governance by the 'positive state' in the energy sector -- characterized by distributive policies and a very active economic role by the city government in energy management, climate protection and the provision of public services -- have been dismantled
until the middle of the 1990s energy policy in berlin was based essentially on two main pillars: first, a close ownership relationship and corporative arrangements between the city government and the regional monopolists; and, second, generous public subsidies for the ecological modernization of energy infrastructures. moreover, the senate formally had the power to regulate the utilities' energy investments and prices. but although the strict regulation of investments and the corporate policies in line with environmental policy issues was announced several times by the senate, it was never, in fact, put into practice. a radical change started from the mid-1990s. since then traditional forms of governance by the 'positive state' in the energy sector -- characterized by distributive policies and a very active economic role by the city government in energy management, climate protection and the provision of public services -- have been dismantled.
How adaptive capacity and vulnerability are negatively correlated?
under ceteris paribus conditions, adaptive capacity and vulnerability are negatively correlated. it should be noted that the ipcc definitions for 'adaptive capacity' (as well as of 'adaptation' and 'vulnerability') refer to social and natural systems alike. brooks (2003) classifies factors that determine adaptive capacity into hazardspecific and generic factors, and into endogenous and exogenous factors. generic determinants of adaptive capacity in social systems comprise such non-climatic factors as economic resources, technology, information and skills, infrastructure, institutions, and equity (smit and pilifosova, 2001; yohe and tol, 2002). endogenous factors refer to the characteristics and behaviour of the considered population group whereas exogenous factors include the wider economic and geopolitical context. the cross-scale nature of adaptive capacity is reflected in figure 5 by the double border around the respective box. since the ability of social systems to cope with current climate variability is an important indicator for their capacity to adapt to future climate change, analyses of vulnerability to current climate variability across systems or regions can provide important lessons for adaptation science (bohle et al., 1994). an important element in second-generation vulnerability assessments is the explicit consideration of relevant non-climatic drivers (e.g., demographic, economic, sociopolitical, technological, and biophysical drivers
Explain Second generation vulenrenability?
in the context of climate change vulnerability assessments, large-scale processes associated with global change, such as economic globalization and urbanization, are particularly important. a recent effort to assess the combined effects of climate change and economic globalization is the 'double exposure' project (o'brien and leichenko, 2000; o'brien et al., 2004b). because our framework focuses on vulnerability to climate change, we do not further distinguish between different types of non-climatic drivers for some countries, mitigation actions (both within the considered region and abroad) can affect relevant non-climatic factors examples include " the adverse effects of the implementation of response measures [on countries] whose economies are highly dependent on income generated from the production, processing and export, and/or on consumption of fossil fuels and associated energyintensive products; and on the welfare of regions where energy production is a major income source " (unfccc, article 4.8
how economic globalization is the 'double exposure' project ?
second-generation vulnerability assessments are not yet commonplace, in absence of a clear methodology. more than first-generation assessments they require the involvement of social scientists in a multidisciplinary research group. in addition, second-generation assessments require a stronger involvement of stakeholders and, focusing more on adaptive capacity, rely more heavily on qualitative data. the assessments of impacts of and adaptation to climate change in multiple regions and sectors (aiacc) project (which is implemented by the united nations
under ceteris paribus conditions, adaptive capacity and vulnerability are negatively correlated. it should be noted that the ipcc definitions for 'adaptive capacity' (as well as of 'adaptation' and 'vulnerability') refer to social and natural systems alike. brooks (2003) classifies factors that determine adaptive capacity into hazardspecific and generic factors, and into endogenous and exogenous factors. generic determinants of adaptive capacity in social systems comprise such non-climatic factors as economic resources, technology, information and skills, infrastructure, institutions, and equity (smit and pilifosova, 2001; yohe and tol, 2002). endogenous factors refer to the characteristics and behaviour of the considered population group whereas exogenous factors include the wider economic and geopolitical context. the cross-scale nature of adaptive capacity is reflected in figure 5 by the double border around the respective box. since the ability of social systems to cope with current climate variability is an important indicator for their capacity to adapt to future climate change, analyses of vulnerability to current climate variability across systems or regions can provide important lessons for adaptation science (bohle et al., 1994). an important element in second-generation vulnerability assessments is the explicit consideration of relevant non-climatic drivers (e.g., demographic, economic, sociopolitical, technological, and biophysical drivers). these drivers affect relevant non-climatic factors (e.g., the degree of economic diversification, the level of education, and the strength of social networks) that, in turn, determine the sensitivity of a system or community to climate change. in the context of climate change vulnerability assessments, large-scale processes associated with global change, such as economic globalization and urbanization, are particularly important. a recent effort to assess the combined effects of climate change and economic globalization is the 'double exposure' project (o'brien and leichenko, 2000; o'brien et al., 2004b). because our framework focuses on vulnerability to climate change, we do not further distinguish between different types of non-climatic drivers for some countries, mitigation actions (both within the considered region and abroad) can affect relevant non-climatic factors examples include " the adverse effects of the implementation of response measures [on countries] whose economies are highly dependent on income generated from the production, processing and export, and/or on consumption of fossil fuels and associated energyintensive products; and on the welfare of regions where energy production is a major income source " (unfccc, article 4.8). second-generation vulnerability assessments are not yet commonplace, in absence of a clear methodology. more than first-generation assessments they require the involvement of social scientists in a multidisciplinary research group. in addition, second-generation assessments require a stronger involvement of stakeholders and, focusing more on adaptive capacity, rely more heavily on qualitative data. the assessments of impacts of and adaptation to climate change in multiple regions and sectors (aiacc) project (which is implemented by the united nations
What are the presented terms in accordance to the implications of climate change for health?
the implications of climate change for health have been presented here in terms of temperatures in buildings
What is at risk is at an increase due to temperature?
the temperature at which there is an increased risk of illness due to heat depends on the normal outdoor conditions
What have countries with cold climate learned?
countries with a cold climate, such as those in scandinavia, have learned to insulate their buildings against the cold
the implications of climate change for health have been presented here in terms of temperatures in buildings. the temperature at which there is an increased risk of illness due to heat depends on the normal outdoor conditions. countries with a cold climate, such as those in scandinavia, have learned to insulate their buildings against the cold. likewise, behaviour in hot climates is more appropriate to the heat. some of this is related to learning appropriate behaviour, such as drinking more water or taking a siesta in the heat of the day. some of it is in the provision of appropriate buildings, such as those that take advantage of thermal mass to reduce indoor temperature variability in temperate or desert climates. for architects there are important lessons to be learned from the scientific analysis of buildings, and in the light of this the study of local vernacular buildings. for national and local authorities the study of buildings and the understanding of the effects of weather patterns in existing climates can give important clues for the provision of warnings and help to communities struggling with unexpected conditions. the wrong conclusions can also follow, for instance an overreliance on the provision of mechanical systems to alleviate the more extreme conditions. these can add to the problem of climate change through the excessive use of fossil fuel energy. it is also becoming increasingly clear that the assumption that energy is always available can be misleading when extreme weather puts a strain on energy utilities. for buildings to provide a safe and comfortable environment in the future they should:
Why have fish stocks have fallen drastically  in Lake Tanganyika ?
due to a lack of vital nutrients fish stocks have fallen drastically
How will higher water temperatures and changing wind patterns affect local population of Lake Tanganyika?
the slumping of the fish numbers, in a large part due to higher water temperatures and changing wind patterns, will have a catastrophic effect on local populations
increased water temperatures will accelerate the growth of water-borne bacteria, plants and fungi. <s121>* decreased oxygen levels in water, with higher temperatures and less water in rivers, may kill river species, including fish, which are also physiologically temperature sensitive in their habitats. <s121>* high levels of rainwater run-off from increased levels of rainfall and storm incidence will exacerbate pollution incidences in built-up areas. an example where a combination of factors is killing large stretches of water is occurring in lake tanganyika in central africa, where the nutrient balance of the lake's water has been so altered that due to a lack of vital nutrients fish stocks have fallen drastically, with a dramatic impact on the local fishing economy. in an area where between 25% and 40% of the protein needs of local people in the four bordering countries traditionally come from the lake, the slumping of the fish numbers, in a large part due to higher water temperatures and changing wind patterns, will have a catastrophic effect on local populations. 20
How was the urban chemistry module developed?
the urban chemistry module was derived based on an ensemble of 24-h-long cit model runs
What happened to the predicted concentrations at the end of each day?
at the end of each model day, the predicted concentrations of chemical species by the urban and global chemistry modules are then remapped based on the urbantononurban volume ratio at each model grid
When was this research conducted?
2000
the urban chemistry module was derived based on an ensemble of 24-h-long cit model runs and thus is processed in the igsm with a daily time step, while the global chemistry module is run in a real time step with the dynamics and physics model: 20 min for advection and scavenging and 3 h for tropospheric reactions. the two modules in the igsm are processed separately at the beginning of each model day, supplied by emissions of nonurban and urban regions, respectively. at the end of each model day, the predicted concentrations of chemical species by the urban and global chemistry modules are then remapped based on the urbantononurban volume ratio at each model grid. beyond this step, the resultant concentrations at each model grid will be used as the background concentration for the next urban module prediction and also as initial values for the global chemistry module (mayer et al. 2000).
How many presence - absence comparisons were made ?
presence - absence comparisons were made at 77 sites and occupancy models were used to separate significant range shifts from artifacts of false absences
Over the past century what did the rising temperature push?
over the past century, rising temperature pushed species upslope while increased precipitation pulled them downslope, resulting in range shifts that were heterogeneous within species and among regions. while 84% of species shifted their elevational distribution, only 51% of upper or lower range boundary shifts were upslope
What do the future projections of increasing temperature create?
future projections of increasing temperature and highly variable precipitation regimes create a strong potential for heterogeneous responses by species at range margins
projected effects of climate change on animal distributions primarily focus on consequences of temperature and largely ignore impacts of altered precipitation. while much evidence supports temperature-driven range shifts, there is substantial heterogeneity in species' responses that remains poorly understood. we resampled breeding ranges of birds across three elevational transects in the sierra nevada mountains, usa, that were extensively surveyed in the early 20th century. presence - absence comparisons were made at 77 sites and occupancy models were used to separate significant range shifts from artifacts of false absences. over the past century, rising temperature pushed species upslope while increased precipitation pulled them downslope, resulting in range shifts that were heterogeneous within species and among regions. while 84% of species shifted their elevational distribution, only 51% of upper or lower range boundary shifts were upslope. by comparison, 82% of range shifts were in a direction predicted by changes in either temperature or precipitation. species were significantly more likely to shift elevational ranges than their ecological counterparts if they had small clutch sizes, defended all-purpose territories, and were year-round residents, results that were in opposition to a priori predictions from dispersal-related hypotheses. our results illustrate the complex interplay between species-specific and region-specific factors that structure patterns of breeding range change over long time periods. future projections of increasing temperature and highly variable precipitation regimes create a strong potential for heterogeneous responses by species at range margins.
What cannot be used to solely express the level of concern about climate change?
level of concern about climate change, however, cannot be solely explained with individuals having been affected by impacts
What country suggests that exposure to floods does not necessarily affect concern about climate change?
evidence from the united kingdom suggests that exposure to floods, as one type of climate change impact, does not necessarily affect concern about climate change
In what state did studies show where the energy use and income from energy production is so deeply woven into people's daily lives?
as a study of communities in alaska showed where energy use and income generated from energy production is so deeply woven into people's daily lives that they do not easily see a way out
level of concern about climate change, however, cannot be solely explained with individuals having been affected by impacts but rather from engagement with the issue through cognitive, affective, behavioral, and moral means. evidence from the united kingdom suggests that exposure to floods, as one type of climate change impact, does not necessarily affect concern about climate change.107 therefore, even direct experience with impacts may not motivate behavioral responses to mitigate emissions. rather, the study finds that individuals with pro-environmental values are significantly more likely to address climate change than those with other value orientations. moreover, the direct experience with impacts may orient individuals more toward taking adaptive actions, rather than focus on the root causes, as a study of communities in alaska showed where energy use and income generated from energy production is so deeply woven into people's daily lives that they do not easily see a way out.108
Describe behavioral changes and value chains? Â 
over the medium term, climate change policy will percolate through the economy as behaviour changes and value chains adjust. for instance, a reduction in coal-fired power generation will lead to upstream job losses in the mining industry and rail freight. demand for rotor blades (for wind turbines), silicone (for solar panels), and low-carbon appliances will grow at the expense of more polluting equipment. stricter building standards will accelerate the refurbishment of the housing stock, creating jobs in the construction sector. there will be new jobs for carbon traders, wind power engineers and climate change consultants
Explain about Commission Market Research Training? Â 
these people will read trade magazines, commission market research and discuss their career with specialized recruitment firms. some will have been trained in specialized university courses. however, because greenhouse gas mitigation is costly, firms that are subject to a carbon constraint may have to reduce expenditures elsewhere. the reduction in corporate demand will have economy-wide repercussions on output and employment. the magnitude of this budget effect depends on the price differential between lowcarbon technologies and conventional solutions. the lower the differential (for example because gas prices are high), the lower will be the budget effect. for win-win measures such as energy efficiency improvements, the budget effect could even be positive. often the cost differential is kept artificially low through technology support policies, such as feed-in tariffs that guarantee a minimum price per kwh to renewable power producers - although this will have fiscal implications that could in turn have economy-wide effects. recent increases in energy prices and international efforts to price carbon are likely to improve the competitiveness of renewable energy technologies and thus increase employment impacts. the economy-wide effects of climate policy have to be studied in an input-output framework that traces the effects of a policy through the supply chain
What are the implications of renewable energy policy? Â 
there is evidence from such models that the indirect effects of climate change or renewable energy policy are generally positive (jochem and madlener, 2003) and could be at least as high as the direct effects. a study for germany (bmu, 2006) found that of 157,000 renewable energy-related jobs in 2004 only 71,500 were directly concerned with the manufacturing and operation of installations; 81,500 jobs were in related industries. numerous similar studies for the usa (e.g. bailie et al., 2001; krause et al., 2003) - applying input-output analysis - showed how a comprehensive package of climate change policies could create positive economic outcomes. bailie et al. (2001) projected that a policy mix comprising carbon, sox and nox trading, building, transport and renewable energy standards and various other measures would create more than 1.3 million net jobs across the us economy by 2020. the
over the medium term, climate change policy will percolate through the economy as behaviour changes and value chains adjust. for instance, a reduction in coal-fired power generation will lead to upstream job losses in the mining industry and rail freight. demand for rotor blades (for wind turbines), silicone (for solar panels), and low-carbon appliances will grow at the expense of more polluting equipment. stricter building standards will accelerate the refurbishment of the housing stock, creating jobs in the construction sector. there will be new jobs for carbon traders, wind power engineers and climate change consultants. these people will read trade magazines, commission market research and discuss their career with specialized recruitment firms. some will have been trained in specialized university courses. however, because greenhouse gas mitigation is costly, firms that are subject to a carbon constraint may have to reduce expenditures elsewhere. the reduction in corporate demand will have economy-wide repercussions on output and employment. the magnitude of this budget effect depends on the price differential between lowcarbon technologies and conventional solutions. the lower the differential (for example because gas prices are high), the lower will be the budget effect. for win-win measures such as energy efficiency improvements, the budget effect could even be positive. often the cost differential is kept artificially low through technology support policies, such as feed-in tariffs that guarantee a minimum price per kwh to renewable power producers - although this will have fiscal implications that could in turn have economy-wide effects. recent increases in energy prices and international efforts to price carbon are likely to improve the competitiveness of renewable energy technologies and thus increase employment impacts. the economy-wide effects of climate policy have to be studied in an input-output framework that traces the effects of a policy through the supply chain. there is evidence from such models that the indirect effects of climate change or renewable energy policy are generally positive (jochem and madlener, 2003) and could be at least as high as the direct effects. a study for germany (bmu, 2006) found that of 157,000 renewable energy-related jobs in 2004 only 71,500 were directly concerned with the manufacturing and operation of installations; 81,500 jobs were in related industries. numerous similar studies for the usa (e.g. bailie et al., 2001; krause et al., 2003) - applying input-output analysis - showed how a comprehensive package of climate change policies could create positive economic outcomes. bailie et al. (2001) projected that a policy mix comprising carbon, sox and nox trading, building, transport and renewable energy standards and various other measures would create more than 1.3 million net jobs across the us economy by 2020. the
How long is the influence of dengue fever's duration?
more or less than 12 days
What is the maximal temperature?
it seems important now to study the impact of maximal temperatures exceeding 32
What is the maximal relative humidity?
maximal relative humidity exceeding 95
in conclusion, the epidemic dynamics of dengue fever were strongly influenced by climate variability in noumea during the 1971-2010 period. local thresholds of maximal temperature and relative humidity have been identified with precision allowing the development of explicative and predictive climate-based models of dengue outbreak risk. the health authorities of new caledonia have now integrated these models into their new decision making process in order to improve their management of dengue, in combination with clinical, laboratory (e.g. serotype determination), and entomological surveillance data. this work provides an example of the practical utility of research projects in operational public health fields and reinforces the need for a multidisciplinary approach in the understanding and management of vector-borne diseases. our results provide also new insights for future experimental studies. it seems important now to study the impact of maximal temperatures exceeding 32 u c and maximal relative humidity exceeding 95%, and the influence of their duration (more or less than 12 days) on the length of the extrinsic incubation period, feeding frequency and longevity of a. aegypti from new caledonia.
Definition of knowledge system ?
knowledge systems have been developed and continue to be developed through our interaction with our lands and territories
What kind of cash crops planting by Dayak systems ?
cash crops including pepper gardens, oil palm, rubber, copra and cocoa alongside fruit orchards, rice fields and vegetable gardens
[our] knowledge systems have been developed and continue to be developed through our interaction with our lands and territories. without access to our lands we lose our connections with our ancestors and our knowledge. saul vincente, indigenous peoples, marginalized populations and climate change expert meeting (ipmpcc, 2011) resilience due to species or genetic diversity in the field or the herd may be complemented by resilience through diversification at the level of landscape. traditional land use and management, for example, ensure multiple uses within a single territory. tauli-corpuz and alangui present the results of case studies conducted by indigenous researchers in nicaragua and indonesia. the miskito of nicaragua maintain three land-use types: cultivated fields, pastures and forest areas. in indonesian borneo, a typical dayak jalai village territory is composed of multiple land use types (see box 3.2). in this 'shifting mosaic land-use pattern that dayak create... are patches of natural forest, managed forests, rotating swidden/fallow, and permanent fields moulded to the ecological conditions of the mountains, wetlands, and river valleys of a particular community's territory' (alcorn et al., 2003: 306). in many dayak systems, a typical land area will also include spaces for cash crops including pepper gardens, oil palm, rubber, copra and cocoa alongside fruit orchards, rice fields and vegetable gardens. this multiple land-use system is both a livelihood strategy and a source of resilience. conversely, undermining local control over these land resources increases the vulnerability of these communities (box 3.2). cunningham notes that security of land tenure and the resulting ability to access, manage and extract natural resources is a precondition for maintaining the resilience of local communities (see box 3.3). continued access to territories is essential as it preserves the ability to move across different ecosystems in response to localized climate problems. during periods of drought, the makushi of guyana '[leave] their savannah dwellings for less hot and smoky places, travelling to their 'high bush farms' in forest areas on hilltops or along rivers, trekking to distant hunting territories, or visiting relatives living in more propitious and moister regions.' through oral history, it has been documented that the makushi peoples' primary response to severe drought was to move out from the savannah zone (rival, 2009: 301). 47
In what three ways have species previously shifted in response to climate changes?
phenology (parmesan 2006), distribution (davis shaw 2001), and abundances (williams jackson 2007
How will this piece conclude?
by summarizing how the reviewed research should inform the next generation of models for forecasting ecological responses to environmental change
What studies best highlight complex interactions?
small-scale experimental studies
predicting species responses to climate change is a challenge central to both maintaining biodiversity and assessing our understanding of constraints on species abundance and distribution. in response to past climate changes, species in a variety of taxa have shifted their phenology (parmesan 2006), distribution (davis shaw 2001), and abundances (williams jackson 2007) in different directions and to different extents. these individualistic range shifts are inconsistent with the most common technique for predicting species' distribution responses to change--correlative species distribution models (sdms). these models estimate a species' niche by correlating localities to environmental layers (e.g., temperature and precipitation) in order to define a climate envelope (or environmental niche). range shifts are predicted by assuming that the species will follow its climate envelope through climate change. correlative sdms require little understanding of organismal biology and are obtainable for a wide variety of organisms, but predictions are coarse and tend to get spatial details wrong (helmuth et al. 2005, kearney porter 2009, buckley et al. 2010). morphological and physiological traits can vary across the range of a species such that the environmental niche estimated by an sdm is an overestimate for any particular individual or population. further, the associations between multiple abiotic variables may shift over time, leading to spurious estimates of environmental suitability. in contrast to broad-scale modeling efforts that largely ignore biological details, small-scale experimental studies highlight how complex interactions between organismal traits and environmental conditions can be crucial to determining responses to environmental change jentsch et al. 2007). however, the generality and realism of these small-scale studies is uncertain. the studies tend to ignore stochastic environmental fluctuations and the complex context of actual ecosystems. moreover, studying all species in all environmental conditions in detail is impractical. here, we ask what biological details are needed to more accurately predict how species will respond to climate change. can traits such as individual and population growth rate and ecological generality predict climate change responses? how do predictor traits vary between taxa and regions? can functional approaches successfully bridge between small-scale experimental studies where the biological details are thought to be crucial and broad-scale modeling efforts where the biological details are ignored? can we use proxies for biology such as phylogenetic relatedness to inform predictions? we start by reviewing aspects of the physical environment that can result in traits being central to an organism's response to environmental change. we next consider traits that may govern responses to environmental change. we evaluate whether these traits and evolutionary history can predict whether a species will move, acclimate, adapt, or go extinct in response to environmental change. we conclude by summarizing how the reviewed research should inform the next generation of models for forecasting ecological responses to environmental change.
What does LGP stand for?
length of growing period (lgp
In what country will rainfall increase during the present century, according to global and regional models?
there is a reasonable consensus between global and regional models that rainfall will increase in most of asia during the present century
What methods are used when calculating LGP for current conditions?
length of growing period is calculated using methods in jones (1987) for current conditions
to identify geographic areas where climate change and subsequent impacts on crop and livestock agriculture may be relatively large, length of growing period (lgp) is a useful proxy. it is crop-independent, and it is an effective integrator of changes in rainfall amounts and patterns and temperatures. we have carried out several studies where we estimate changes in the length of growing season from current conditions to 2050, and use these changes as indicators of climate hazard for subsequent analysis. details of the procedures used may be found in thornton et al. (2006), but essentially, gcm output data at coarse resolution are downscaled to a higher-resolution grid using a global dataset of climate normals for the period 1960-1990 (hijmans et al. 2005) and methods based on marksim, a statistical weather generator (jones and thornton (2000). length of growing period is calculated using methods in jones (1987) for current conditions, and then the process is repeated for different scenarios of future conditions; these scenarios are usually differentiated in terms of the greenhouse gas (ghg) emissions that are projected to occur during the remainder of the current century (ipcc, 2000). as an example, figure 1 shows lgp for current conditions in asia generated using these methods, and the percentage difference projected to occur between now and 2050, using the hadley gcm (hadcm3) model and a high ghg-emission scenario, a1f1. these results are indicative only, but they do show that there may be considerable spatial heterogeneity of response of lgp to projected climate change. many areas may see some expansion in growing seasons, while other areas, particularly in the tropical zones, may see contractions. these patterns arise as a result of the integration of increasing temperatures throughout the region and shifting rainfall patterns and amounts. there is a reasonable consensus between global and regional models that rainfall will increase in most of asia during the present century, with relative increases being largest (and most consistent) in north and east asia (cruz et al., 2007)).
How much of an impact will a 2degC rise have?
a 2degc rise will result in insecurity for millions of people in terms of food, water, or shelter, with the risk of many additional deaths
Are wealthy countries safe from the adverse effects of climate change?
for example, the hurricane katrina in the usa and the deaths caused by the 2003 heatwave in europe show that rich countries cannot always protect themselves from the adverse health consequences of climate-related events
What is needed to reduce adverse effects of climate change?
an integrated approach to attempting to reduce the adverse eff ects of climate change requires at least three levels of action. first, policies must be adopted to reduce carbon emissions, and thereby slow down global warming and eventually stabilise temperatures. second, action must be taken on the links connecting climate change and adverse health. third, appropriate public health systems should be put into place to deal with adverse outcomes. slowing down carbon emissions presents daunting challenges, requiring coordinated action on a global scale (panel 2
climate change is a real threat to global health and wellbeing, and is contributing to mortality, especially for people living in poverty and lacking access to essential health care. a 2degc rise will result in insecurity for millions of people in terms of food, water, or shelter, with the risk of many additional deaths. no countries will be immune from the health eff ects of climate change. for example, the hurricane katrina in the usa and the deaths caused by the 2003 heatwave in europe show that rich countries cannot always protect themselves from the adverse health consequences of climate-related events. an integrated approach to attempting to reduce the adverse eff ects of climate change requires at least three levels of action. first, policies must be adopted to reduce carbon emissions, and thereby slow down global warming and eventually stabilise temperatures. second, action must be taken on the links connecting climate change and adverse health. third, appropriate public health systems should be put into place to deal with adverse outcomes. slowing down carbon emissions presents daunting challenges, requiring coordinated action on a global scale (panel 2). however, many adaptation strategies can be pursued by a combination of local, national, regional, and global strategies, and hence important steps can be taken requiring less demanding forms of cooperation and therefore with greater speed. this does not mean that adaptation will be easy or straightforward. common challenges exist that make, and will make, the process of
What type of economy are U.S.-based companies adjusting their operations to achieve?
a more carbon constrained economy
Which is more critical in re-shaping U.S. federal climate change policy, domestic policy changes at the sub-national level, or intergovernmental policy events?
domestic policy changes at the sub-national level
What is the cause among U.S. states, cities, and companies to not significantly alter the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere?
modest climate change regulations
in addition, many u.s. municipalities engage with foreign cities under iclei's ccp program. a growing number of u.s.-based companies also look to foreign companies and/or their foreign subsidiaries as they seek to reduce their ghg emissions and adjust their operations to a more carbon constrained economy. these different transnational connections between u.s. private sector actors and public sector actors at the sub-national level and non-u.s. actors and policy developments can be important for climate change debate and policy making in the united states and may contribute to changes in the domestic political constellations deemed necessary by bang, tjernshaugen, and andresen (2005) for changing u.s. foreign policy in the area of climate change. yet, we believe that domestic policy changes at the sub-national level--rather than intergovernmental policy events--will be most critical in re-shaping u.s. federal climate change policy. opponents of climate change action and policy the rather modest climate change regulations among u.s. states, cities, and companies to date are not going to significantly alter the amount of co2 in the atmosphere or, by themselves, prevent significant climactic changes in the 21st
What happens when the aperture of stomata changes?
by changing the aperture of stomata, plants regulate water loss and photosynthetic carbon gain in response to many environmental stimuli, but stomatal movements cannot yet be reliably predicted
Why is the behavior of the lycophyte and fern stomata highly predictable?
lycophyte and fern stomata are shown to lack key responses to abscisic acid and epidermal cell turgor, making their behavior highly predictable
What do the highly predictable behavior of lycophyte and fern stomata represent?
these results indicate that a fundamental transition from passive to active metabolic control of plant water balance occurred after the divergence of ferns about 360 million years ago
tim j. brodribb and scott a. m. mcadam carbon and water flow between plants and the atmosphere is regulated by the opening and closing of minute stomatal pores in surfaces of leaves. by changing the aperture of stomata, plants regulate water loss and photosynthetic carbon gain in response to many environmental stimuli, but stomatal movements cannot yet be reliably predicted. we found that the complexity that characterizes stomatal control in seed plants is absent in early-diverging vascular plant lineages. lycophyte and fern stomata are shown to lack key responses to abscisic acid and epidermal cell turgor, making their behavior highly predictable. these results indicate that a fundamental transition from passive to active metabolic control of plant water balance occurred after the divergence of ferns about 360 million years ago.
Who recently reported the discovery of a compelling example of an exhumed?
malin and edgett [2003] recently reported the discovery of a compelling example of an exhumed and differentially eroded martian layered fluvial delta or fan complex probably of late noachian age created by fluvial flows of moderate magnitude derived from adjacent highlands
What did Malin and Edgett [2003] recently report?
malin and edgett [2003] recently reported the discovery of a compelling example of an exhumed and differentially eroded martian layered fluvial delta or fan complex probably of late noachian age created by fluvial flows of moderate magnitude derived from adjacent highlands
What did they analyze?
we analyze this layered deposit and its drainage basin, evaluate their implications for flow rates and durations, and preferably conclude that its features are consistent with a terrestrial-style sediment history persisting over thousands of years [e.g., squyres and kasting 1994], but an alternative very rapid emplacement by precipitation during occasional catastrophes [e.g., carr 1989 segura et al. 2002] cannot be ruled out
malin and edgett [2003] recently reported the discovery of a compelling example of an exhumed and differentially eroded martian layered fluvial delta or fan complex probably of late noachian age created by fluvial flows of moderate magnitude derived from adjacent highlands. we analyze this layered deposit and its drainage basin, evaluate their implications for flow rates and durations, and preferably conclude that its features are consistent with a terrestrial-style sediment history persisting over thousands of years [e.g., squyres and kasting 1994], but an alternative very rapid emplacement by precipitation during occasional catastrophes [e.g., carr 1989 segura et al. 2002] cannot be ruled out. this study was initially executed without knowledge of the malin and edgett [2003] report, and thus it provides an independent assessment of this feature and its implication for martian climate history.
define common.
the social process of being-in-common, a social relationship of the commoners who build, defend and reproduce the commons
define commons
territorial entities and those resources that are collectively owned or shared between and among populations as well as socio-nature--the air, water, soil, plants etc of nature as well as the results of social (re)production and interaction such as knowledge, languages, codes, information
which entity has emerged as an alternative political keyword of our times?
the commons
central to these antagonistic articulations of climate justice has been the creation, defence and expansion of the "common" and the "commons". we use two variations here as the former refers to the social process of being-in-common, a social relationship of the commoners who build, defend and reproduce the commons. the latter refers to territorial entities and those resources that are collectively owned or shared between and among populations as well as socio-nature--the air, water, soil, plants etc of nature as well as the results of social (re)production and interaction such as knowledge, languages, codes, information (building bridges collective 2010; hardt and negri 2009). the commons have emerged as an alternative political keyword of our times. dispossessions from poor, peasant and indigenous peoples of vital resources and attacks on their livelihoods have generated moves to defend the common(s), which
what leads to the biggest contribution to the differences between the two models
the response to organic carbon inputs
what is Organic carbon input
hadcm3lc
where does HadCM3LC  go?
into the single carbon pool where it decays with a turnover time in common with the rest of the soil carbon
the response to organic carbon inputs is the biggest contribution to the differences between the two models. the more damped transient response of soil c when simulated by rothc, as compared with hadcm3lc, is a result of the multipool structure of rothc. organic carbon input in hadcm3lc goes entirely into the single carbon pool where it decays with a turnover time in common with the rest of the soil carbon. in rothc, the carbon input first enters the dpm and rpm pools both of which decay much faster than the hadcm3lc pool. therefore, fresh inputs decay quicker in rothc than in hadcm3lc and so rothc simulates slower carbon increase for the same increase of organic carbon input. conversely, once carbon is in the hum pool of rothc (which is about 75% of total soil carbon and has a turnover time of 50 years) it decays slower than the
what  marginal distribution can be thought of ?
it can be thought of as the distribution of one variable at one location, ignoring the influence of all other variables (or locations
what is marginal distribution?
the unconditional distribution of one variable at one location (and precisely at one time) is called marginal distribution
how can Marginal aspects of the multivariate climate distribution  be expressed ?
marginal aspects of the multivariate climate distribution can be expressed by summary statistics such as mean, variance, or wet day probability. temporal aspects by, e.g. the lag-one autocorrelation or the mean dry spell length; spatial aspects by, e.g. the correlation between different locations; and multivariable aspects, e.g. by the correlation between different climatic variables
definitions observed and simulated climate can be thought of as a sample of a time-dependent multivariate probability distribution--multivariate in space, in time and between different climatic variables (see fig. 1 ). the unconditional distribution of one variable at one location (and precisely at one time) is called marginal distribution. it can be thought of as the distribution of one variable at one location, ignoring the influence of all other variables (or locations). marginal aspects of the multivariate climate distribution can be expressed by summary statistics such as mean, variance, or wet day probability. temporal aspects by, e.g. the lag-one autocorrelation or the mean dry spell length; spatial aspects by, e.g. the correlation between different locations; and multivariable aspects, e.g. by the correlation between different climatic variables. from a given finite observational time series (or field of time series), one can only derive estimates of the climate distribution and its statistics. even the estimation of climatic mean values is considerably affected by long term internal variability. the same holds for climate model output, although long simulations or initial condition ensembles help reducing sampling uncertainty.
What is a concern if the system is not well balanced?
the existence of an anaerobic stage in an open unit is always a cause for concern, due to the possibility of the release of malodours
What can cause the system to produce a bad smell?
occasional operational problems could lead to the release of hydrogen sulphide, responsible for a bad smell
How do vertical axis mechanical aerators reduce the pond land requirements?
the most commonly used mechanical aerators in aerated ponds are those with a vertical axis that rotates at a high speed, causing great turbulence in the water. this turbulence favours the penetration of atmospheric oxygen into the liquid mass, where it is then dissolved. a greater oxygen is achieved, in comparison with the conventional facultative pond, which leads to a faster decomposition of the organic matter. because of this, the detention time of the wastewater in the pond can be less (in the order of 5 to 10 days for domestic sewage). consequently, the land requirements are much smaller
the efficiency of the system is similar or only slightly higher than that of a single facultative pond. the system is also conceptually simple and easy to operate. however, the existence of an anaerobic stage in an open unit is always a cause for concern, due to the possibility of the release of malodours. if the system is well balanced, then the generation of bad smells should not occur. however, occasional operational problems could lead to the release of hydrogen sulphide, responsible for a bad smell. for this reason, this system should, whenever possible, be located far from residences. c) facultative aerated lagoon if a predominantly aerobic system is desired, with even smaller dimensions, a facultative aerated lagoon can be used. the main difference in relation to a conventional facultative pond is regarding the form of the oxygen supply. while in facultative ponds the oxygen is mainly obtained from photosynthesis, in the case of facultative aerated lagoons the oxygen is supplied by mechanical equipment called aerators the most commonly used mechanical aerators in aerated ponds are those with a vertical axis that rotates at a high speed, causing great turbulence in the water. this turbulence favours the penetration of atmospheric oxygen into the liquid mass, where it is then dissolved. a greater oxygen is achieved, in comparison with the conventional facultative pond, which leads to a faster decomposition of the organic matter. because of this, the detention time of the wastewater in the pond can be less (in the order of 5 to 10 days for domestic sewage). consequently, the land requirements are much smaller. the pond is called facultative by the fact that the level of energy introduced by the aerators is only sufficient for the oxygenation, but not to maintain the solids (biomass and wastewater solids) in suspension in the liquid mass. in this way, the 188 to wastewater characteristics, treatment and disposal solids tend to settle and constitute a sludge layer at the bottom of the pond, to be decomposed anaerobically. only the soluble and fine particulate bod remains in the liquid mass, undergoing aerobic decomposition. therefore, the pond behaves like a conventional facultative pond (see figure 4.11).
What approach was adopted to consistently evaluate uncertainties?
to consistently evaluate uncertainties we adopted an approach from the nusap method (numeral unit spread assessment pedigree), which is a widely applied method to quantify uncertainty in environmental assessment
What is NUSAP?
numeral unit spread assessment pedigree
What is the proxy representation?
proxy representation accounts for the fact that studies often do not directly measure the entity or phenomenon we were primarily interested in this analysis, but report some kind of proxy thereof
uncertainty assessment in addition to indicators characterizing the synthesized literature with regard to its disturbance agent and ecological context (e.g., biome, forest type, scale of analysis), we also assessed the uncertainty associated with the information extracted from each of the reviewed studies. to consistently evaluate uncertainties we adopted an approach from the nusap method (numeral unit spread assessment pedigree), which is a widely applied method to quantify uncertainty in environmental assessment 1 - 3. specifically, we utilized the approach to estimate pedigree within the nusap method, qualitatively scoring each observation with regard to its proxy representation and methodological rigor. proxy representation accounts for the fact that studies often do not directly measure the entity or phenomenon we were primarily interested in this analysis, but report some kind of proxy thereof. an example are studies reconstructing fire regimes based on charcoal records, the latter being well correlated to our variable of interest (fire activity), but not measuring the variable of interest directly. we assessed proxy representation using five categories, following the terminology and categorization developed for the nusap approach
Who might be targeted for a range of technologies in various areas such as household energy, agricultural and food processing, forest management and water pumping in the rural areas?
with reference of one of the kyoto flexible mechanisms, the cdm, recent analyses find that there is strong evidence that women might be targeted for a range of technologies in various areas such as household energy, agricultural and food processing, forest management and water pumping in the rural areas
What is regarded as the principal stakeholders and decision-makers as well as the direct managers of these technologies?
generally extension related to technology is directed towards men regarded as the principal stakeholders and decision-makers as well as the direct managers of these technologies
Who are avid users of technology provided it meets their particular needs?
women "are avid users of technology provided it meets their particular needs
with reference of one of the kyoto flexible mechanisms, the cdm, recent analyses find that there is strong evidence that women might be targeted for a range of technologies in various areas such as household energy, agricultural and food processing, forest management and water pumping in the rural areas. however, generally extension related to technology is directed towards men regarded as the principal stakeholders and decision-makers as well as the direct managers of these technologies. on the contrary, experience shows that women "are avid users of technology provided it meets their particular needs" .83 as denton notes, structural obstacles, including a lack of education and entrepreneurial skills, as well as cultural restrictions, contribute to limit or even inhibit women's efforts in entrepreneurial activities.84
Who gave fund for this work?
this work was funded by the u.s. department of defense's strategic environmental research and development program under project rc-2334 ("the impact of sea-level rise and climate change on department of defense installations on atolls in the pacific ocean"), the u.s. geological survey's pacific coastal and marine science center, and deltares through the deltares strategic research in the "event-driven hydroand morphodynamics" program (1220002
Who gave invaluable data and field support?
joshua logan, kurt rosenberger, and thomas reiss (usgs) provided invaluable field and data support
In which website XBeach software is available ?
 the xbeach software is available at xbeach.org
acknowledgements this work was funded by the u.s. department of defense's strategic environmental research and development program under project rc-2334 ("the impact of sea-level rise and climate change on department of defense installations on atolls in the pacific ocean"), the u.s. geological survey's pacific coastal and marine science center, and deltares through the deltares strategic research in the "event-driven hydroand morphodynamics" program (1220002). joshua logan, kurt rosenberger, and thomas reiss (usgs) provided invaluable field and data support. we would like to thank the u.s. army garrison-kwajalein atoll (usag-ka) for their overarching support of this project. use of trademark names does not imply usgs endorsement of products. the usgs data sets presented herein can be obtained by sending a written request to the corresponding author. the xbeach software is available at xbeach.org, and the profile models used can be obtained by sending a written (c)2015 american geophysical union. all rights reserved. request to ap van dongeren (email: ap.vandongeren@deltares.nl).
In what level it is necessary to develop a framework for adaptation to climate change?
it is, therefore, necessary to develop a framework for adaptation to climate change at the municipal level in order to prioritize the most urgent local adaptation activities and identify the required local human and fi nancial resources
If climate is to increase what is necessary to understand?
if climate variability is to increase, it is necessary to understand how climate impacts on the different sectors and their resultant vulnerabilities
The adaptation policy framework developed by the UNDP is structured around how many principles?
the adaptation policy framework developed by the undp is structured around four major principles, from which actions to adapt to climate change can be developed: (13
it is, therefore, necessary to develop a framework for adaptation to climate change at the municipal level in order to prioritize the most urgent local adaptation activities and identify the required local human and fi nancial resources. if climate variability is to increase, it is necessary to understand how climate impacts on the different sectors and their resultant vulnerabilities. this will focus attention on where priority intervention might reduce the impacts of climate change, and help cities to adapt rather than react when the damage has already been done. the adaptation policy framework developed by the undp is structured around four major principles, from which actions to adapt to climate change can be developed: (13)
The zone settling is also called of:
hindered settling
What is used in the design of sedimentation tanks?
settling velocity of the interface
What is the specific subject of the text?
blanket
when there is a high solids concentration, a blanket tends to form. this blanket settles as a single mass of particles (the particles tend to remain in a fixed position with relation to the neighbouring particles). a clear separation interface can be observed between the solid phase and the liquid phase, and the level of the interface moves downwards as a result of the sedimentation of the sludge blanket (see figure 10.13). for the blanket to move downwards, the liquid situated underneath tends to move upwards. in the zone settling, it is the settling velocity of the interface that is used in the design of sedimentation tanks. zone settling is also called hindered settling in a settling column completely homogenised with a high concentration of suspendedsolids,underquiescentconditionsandafterashorttime,aclearinterface
what does the study demonstrate?
ours is the first to demonstrate a causal physical mechanism, or to show consistent predictive skill across so many models, or to point to processes connecting low-cloud regions to the deep tropics
Describe the  Lower-tropospheric mixing behaviour?
lower-tropospheric mixing behaviour appears to result from a competition between shallow and deep convection in situations where either could occur. such situations persist in many tropical regions, notably the intertropical convergence zone
What is the final identification?
finally to identify an atmospheric process thatdrives variations in climate sensitivity offers an unprecedented opportunity to focus research and model development in ways that should lead to more reliable climate change assessments
althoughafewpreviousstudies havealreadynotedthathigher-sensitivity models simulate certain cloud-relevant phenomena better23-25, ours is the first to demonstrate a causal physical mechanism, or to show consistent predictive skill across so many models, or to point to processes connecting low-cloud regions to the deep tropics. the milc mechanismissurprisinglystraightforward.lower-troposphericmixing dries the boundary layer, and the drying rate increases by 5-7% k2 1in warmer climates owing to stronger vertical water vapour gradients. the moisture source from surface evaporation increases at only about 2% k2 1. thus as climate warms, any drying by lower-tropospheric mixing becomes larger relative to the rest of the hydrological cycle, tending to dry the boundary layer. how important this is depends on how important the diagnosed lower-tropospheric mixing was in the base state of the atmosphere. lower-tropospheric mixing is unrealistically weak in models that have low climate sensitivity. climate-sensitivity-related differences in lower-tropospheric mixing, both at small (fig. 1) and large scales (fig. 3), are most detectable in regions of tropical deep or mixed-level convection and mean upward motion. this does not mean, however, that the greater low-level drying in a warmer climate or the spread of drying among models will be limited to these regions. large-scale lower-tropospheric mixing carries water vapour not only upwardbutalsohorizontallyawayfromsubsidenceregions;becauseboth directions of transport intensify in a warmer atmosphere20, subsidence regions should bear the brunt of the overall boundary-layer drying. moreover, shallow ascent is equally strong (though more transient) in mid-latitude storm tracks and in the tropics, suggesting that milc feedback may be just as important outside the tropics as within them. as for small-scale lower-tropospheric mixing, even though there are reasons to measure it in ascending regions (see methods), its impact uponwarmingismuchmorewidespreadanddifferssignificantlyamong models in subsiding regions (extended data fig. 5). we hypothesise that this is because models with more small-scale lower-tropospheric mixing in ascending regions also have more in descending regions, although we cannot confirm this directly. overall, the behaviour is consistentwithpublished results showing thatsubsiding regions contribute strongly to the spread of cloud feedbacks in models, with storm tracks and tropical convective regions also playing a part16,26,27. lower-tropospheric mixing behaviour appears to result from a competition between shallow and deep convection in situations where either could occur. such situations persist in many tropical regions, notably the intertropical convergence zone. understanding and properly representing this competition in climate models is undoubtedly necessary for more accurate future climate projections. although tested here on models used over the past decade or so, we presume that this mechanism has been a leading source of spread in sensitivity since the dawn of climate modelling. finally to identify an atmospheric process thatdrives variations in climate sensitivity offers an unprecedented opportunity to focus research and model development in ways that should lead to more reliable climate change assessments.
How many species are there in mosquitoes?
there are about 3,500 species
Where does the protein for female mosquito come from?
in nearly all mosquito species, the female obtains the protein she needs for the development of her eggs by feeding on vertebrate blood
What are the hosts for mosquitos?
some species are highly selective, restricting themselves to one or at most a few closely related host species. others have a less clearly defined host preference and may alternate among birds, mammals, and even reptiles
mosquitoes are found throughout the world except in places that are permanently frozen. there are about 3,500 species, of which nearly three-quarters are native to the humid tropics and subtropics. the largest populations of individual species occur in the arctic tundra, where colossal numbers emerge in a single brood each summer from snowmelt pools that overlie the permafrost. in nearly all mosquito species, the female obtains the protein she needs for the development of her eggs by feeding on vertebrate blood. some species are highly selective, restricting themselves to one or at most a few closely related host species. others have a less clearly defined host preference and may alternate among birds, mammals, and even reptiles. a complex salivary secretion facilitates feeding. it is the direct injection of this fluid into the capillaries that enables several life forms--viruses, protozoa, and nematode worms--to exploit mosquitoes as a means of transfer between vertebrate hosts. in nearly all cases, there is an obligatory phase within the insect. this includes a stage in which they multiply prodigiously in the salivary glands, from which they can be inoculated into a new host during a later blood meal. although most such organisms do not appear to affect either the mosquitoes or their vertebrate hosts, some are pathogens of important human and animal diseases.
What do policymakers have a critical role in?
influencing the risk-return equation
How do policymakers have a critical role in influencing the risk-return equation?
they can cause, control, alleviate, or help mitigate risk
What did public sector money make up?
the vast majority of developed to developing country flows
policymakers have a critical role in influencing the risk-return equation: they can cause, control, alleviate, or help mitigate risk; at the same time, the use of public resources and policies allows to influence returns. risk, whether real or perceived, appears to be a critical issue in climate investments. most investment was domestic. of the usd 84 billion that flowed between countries, a significant amount was private money flowing between developed countries. on the other hand, public sector money made up the vast majority of developed to developing country flows. these figures illuminate a bias by private investors toward environments that are more familiar and perceived to be less risky, and suggest there are opportunities for policymakers to increase finance by alleviating or helping mitigate risk.
what are the hypotheses tested by author?
the authors tested 3 hypotheses regarding the antecedents and moderator influences of climate strength (cs; the degree of within-unit agreement of climate perceptions
What did the sample consist?
he sample consisted of 197 work units. social interaction among unit members showed positive, statistically significant correlations with cs in goals orientation and innovation climate
Define  Work-unit leaders' informing behavior ?
work-unit leaders' informing behavior was positively correlated with cs in the 3 climate facets measured (i.e., support, goals orientation, and innovation). cs in innovation moderated the impact of work units' innovation climate on average satisfaction and commitment
the authors tested 3 hypotheses regarding the antecedents and moderator influences of climate strength (cs; the degree of within-unit agreement of climate perceptions). the sample consisted of 197 work units. social interaction among unit members showed positive, statistically significant correlations with cs in goals orientation and innovation climate. work-unit leaders' informing behavior was positively correlated with cs in the 3 climate facets measured (i.e., support, goals orientation, and innovation). cs in innovation moderated the impact of work units' innovation climate on average satisfaction and commitment. cs in goals orientation moderated the influence of work units' goal orientation on average commitment. the moderator influences showed the expected direction: cs fostered the influence of work units' climate on the criterion variables.
After how long did the glacier advance to the proximal basin?
following a millennium of normal lacustrine sedimentation, a glacier readvanced into the proximal basin
How is the age of a diamict determined?
the age of the diamict is constrained by ams14c dates on plant remains from two levels within the diamict, and additional plant remains in lacustrine sediment directly overlying the diamict
andrews and ives, 1978 ). following a millennium of normal lacustrine sedimentation, a glacier readvanced into the proximal basin, depositing the diamict at the base of core 91-lj3. terrestrial plant remains incorporated within the diamict confirm that the diamict was deposited during a readvance, rather than during regional deglaciation. the age of the diamict is constrained by ams14c dates on plant remains from two levels within the diamict, and additional plant remains in lacustrine sediment directly overlying the diamict. all three ages are statistically indistinguishable 7 2 s at about 8.2 ka, indicating a glacier readvanced into the proximal basin at this time. there is no diamict of this age in the distal basin, but sediment of this age (45-55 cm) in core 91-lj1 has ird visible in xradiographs, anomalously low pollen concentrations (implying an elevated sedimentation rate), and high ms (greater proportion of clastic sediment). similar ms and
What misrepresents political action?
extracting single elements from more complex communication processes involving many actors and technologies
How do we move forward to understanding online activism?
analyzing social technologies in the context of evolving collective action sequences
What does isolating Twitter do?
place an undue burden of expectations (e.g., to cause revolutions) on what is just one of many factors in the contemporary political communication and organization repertoire
the various ways of isolating twitter place an undue burden of expectations (e.g., to cause revolutions) on what is just one of many factors in the contemporary political communication and organization repertoire. moreover, extracting single elements from more complex communication processes involving many actors and technologies may misrepresent the political action and dynamics of the case at hand. by contrast, analyzing social technologies in the context of evolving collective action sequences may enable us to move beyond seeing just a message stream shared among participants, to begin understanding the role of these technologies as organizing mechanisms, and, equally interesting, using them as windows on the larger protest ecology itself.
What impact do changes in forest cover have on local climate?
changes in forest cover impact the local climate
What happens to the magnitude of this biophysical effect? Is still debated in the scientific community
the magnitude of this biophysical effect is still debated in the scientific community and currently ignored in climate treaties
What do the results show? Show that forest losses amplify the variation of daytime temperature and increase the average and maximum air temperature
results show that forest losses amplify the diurnal temperature variation and increase the mean and maximum air temperature, with the largest signal in arid zones
changes in forest cover impact the local climate by modulating the land-atmosphere fluxes of energy and water. the magnitude of this biophysical effect is still debated in the scientific community and currently ignored in climate treaties. here we present an observationdriven assessment of the climate impacts of recent forest losses and gains, based on earth observations of global forest cover and land surface temperatures. results show that forest losses amplify the diurnal temperature variation and increase the mean and maximum air temperature, with the largest signal in arid zones, followed by temperate, tropical and boreal zones. in the decade 2003-2012, variations of forest cover generated a mean biophysical warming on land corresponding to about 18% of the global biogeochemical signal due to co2 emission from land use change.
What must M&E systems be designed to enable?
m&e systems need to enable results-based management, promote flexibility, and support iterative learning
In order to enable results-based management, promote flexibility, and support iterative learning, what must development practitioners do?
development practitioners to carefully articulate their adaptation objectives, clarify the basis for their project design, and make transparent their assumptions regarding, for example, climatic, social and economic factors
What are the goals aimed for by development practitioners?
results-based management, promote flexibility, and support iterative learning
aimed at development practitioners and decision makers, this publication offers a roadmap for designing m&e systems for climate change adaptation that help fulfill core principles of aid effectiveness. it brings together the latest thinking on adaptation and practical experiences from development cooperation, building on the work of the world resources institute (wri), as well as the deutsche gesellschaft fur internationale zusammenarbeit (giz) gmbh on behalf of the german federal ministry for economic cooperation and development (bmz). it argues that m&e systems need to enable results-based management, promote flexibility, and support iterative learning as the world grapples with the uncertainties of climate change impacts. achieving these goals requires development practitioners to carefully articulate their adaptation objectives, clarify the basis for their project design, and make transparent their assumptions regarding, for example, climatic, social and economic factors that may influence the project's ability to help vulnerable people thrive in a changing climate. with this foundation, project managers can then select indicators and build information systems that are able to track adaptation success. this publication outlines a six-step sequence to support this process. we hope this publication will foster dialogue and be a useful contribution toward answering the urgent challenge of making global adaptation efforts as effective as possible.
What is on clear days the urban temperature sites can reach?
urban sites reached 7 k on clear days in spite of the relatively wet period of measurement
What shoud happen to the sea breeze penetration into the city?
sea breeze penetration into the city should be facilitated by opening up the coastal strip
How now the medium-rise buildings is acting?
currently, medium-rise buildings act as a barrier along much of the coast and intersections consist mainly of narrow streets
the temperature differences between the urban sites reached 7 k on clear days in spite of the relatively wet period of measurement. urban morphology had a significant impact on daytime air temperatures; the maximum daily temperature decreased with increasing h/w ratio. there was also evidence of a sea breeze effect; sites open to the sea were significantly cooler than other urban sites. in contrast to the daytime variations, only small intra-urban temperature differences were found at night. it is likely that both the intra-urban and urban-rural differences will be bigger during drier seasons. the solar radiation was intense on clear days; consequently, sunlit surfaces became very hot, up to 20 k above air temperature. wind speeds were low in general, but tended to decrease with increasing h/w ratio. the urban planning and design implications of these findings could contribute to the development of climate-sensitive urban design guidelines on building morphology, street layout and landscape control in colombo and other cities with similar climate. this study showed that * the use of high h/w ratios in urban design may be favorable, as this leads to lower daytime air temperatures and more shade at street level. * sea breeze penetration into the city should be facilitated by opening up the coastal strip. currently, medium-rise buildings act as a barrier along much of the coast and intersections consist mainly of narrow streets. * horizontal shading is necessary to provide shade to people and urban surfaces around solar noon. this could be achieved by planting shade trees and building pedestrian arcades. further studies are needed to develop adaptation strategies that could improve the microclimate at street level in different parts of the city. these could include detailed microclimatic measurements combined with questionnaire surveys to explore comfort preferences of the local population. there is also a need for an evaluation of different climate-sensitive design concepts both by measurements and by computer simulations. additionally, studies are needed to explore different ways to create shade in the urban environment without reducing air movement. a variation in building height is likely to be beneficial, since this stimulates air movement.
what is RPC?
ratio of predictable components
what are the  months GloSea5 seasonal hindcasts ?
djf (december-january-february
what are the  important implications?
1. model ensemble members are generally not potential realizations of the true evolution of the climate system. instead, each ensemble member contains some predictable signal but with too much noise. 2. skilful and reliable forecasts may be obtained using a large ensemble. the ensemble mean removes the excessive noise, leaving the predictable component, but variance corrections to the ensemble mean and
we have quanti fi ed the ratio of predictable components (rpc) in observations and models for seasonal and multiyear hindcasts of surface air temperature, mean sea level pressure, and precipitation. the rpc is not signi fi cantly different to the expected value of one for around 70% of grid boxes for glosea5 seasonal hindcasts of djf (december-january-february) a month ahead and 57% for years 2 - 5 in a multimodel ensemble of decadal hindcasts. the rpc is signi fi cantly smaller than one in many regions, especially for the multiyear hindcasts. rpc smaller than one occurs when model ensemble members agree with each other more than observations. the hindcasts are therefore overcon fi dent. this is well known, and techniques have been developed to reduce overcon fi dence by increasing the ensemble spread. however, we fi nd regions where the rpc is signi fi cantly greater than one in both seasonal and multiyear hindcasts. this appears to be related to known variability including the nao and multiyear variability of north atlantic temperatures and associated climate including mslp in the hurricane development region. regions with a rpc greater than one suggest that the real world is more predictable than models. this has important implications: 1. model ensemble members are generally not potential realizations of the true evolution of the climate system. instead, each ensemble member contains some predictable signal but with too much noise. 2. skilful and reliable forecasts may be obtained using a large ensemble. the ensemble mean removes the excessive noise, leaving the predictable component, but variance corrections to the ensemble mean and
Terms of the skew surge?
the evaluation is done in terms of the skew surge (fig. 8). the skew surge at high (low) tide is the difference between the highest (lowest) water level and the closest astronomical high
what is the measure of surge height ?
we prefer this measure of surge height above the straightforward and often-used tidal residual, the instantaneous difference between water level and astronomical tide (sometimes also called storm surge residual
what is a dynamical effect?
the interaction between surge and tide is a dynamical effect
the evaluation is done in terms of the skew surge (fig. 8). the skew surge at high (low) tide is the difference between the highest (lowest) water level and the closest astronomical high (low) tide (e.g. van den brink et al., 2003). we prefer this measure of surge height above the straightforward and often-used tidal residual, the instantaneous difference between water level and astronomical tide (sometimes also called storm surge residual). the skew surge better separates the astronomical from the meteorological impact on the water level, as, in general, the maximum of the wind-driven part of the water level (surge) does not coincide with the maximum of the astronomically-driven part (tide). for the runs without tide we first add the water levels from the no-tide runs to the water level of the tide-only run and then calculate the skew surge. this assumes independence of surge and tide. the comparison of the two sets of runs confirms the result of horsburgh and wilson (2007) that the tide has a dampening effect on surge heights. figure 9a shows that the difference between the location parameters of gev-fits to the skew surges of the two sets of runs, u utide - uno tide, is negative everywhere. in accordance with the results of horsburgh and wilson (2007) the largest tidal residual systematically occurs before the high tide. in general, this time difference is larger for stations with a larger u (not shown), which in turn is larger for places with a higher tidal amplitude (fig. 9b). dover is a notable exception from this general trend. clearly, tide and surge are not independent. the interaction between surge and tide is a dynamical effect. as mentioned at the end of sect. 4.2 modelled water
What operate across levels of analysis?
the cognitive mechanisms through which persuasion and dialogue affected actor preferences and policy behavior operate across levels of analysis
What is the outcome of US China bilateral agreement?
the outcome is a case of ecological modernization, with all its positive and negative aspects
What should be explored by future research?
future research should continue to explore the interplay of structural and process variables, including the micro-dynamics of negotiation, logistical organization, and the role of argumentation in affecting policy preferences
the cognitive mechanisms through which persuasion and dialogue affected actor preferences and policy behavior operate across levels of analysis. notably, they could help explain both the international success in paris and domestic developments in multilevel climate governance. can we understand the uschina bilateral agreement without persuasive eu arguments about the economic bene fi ts of climate policy? the outcome is a case of ecological modernization, with all its positive and negative aspects (matthews and paterson 2005). future research should continue to explore the interplay of structural and process variables, including the micro-dynamics of negotiation, logistical organization, and the role of argumentation in affecting policy preferences.
What is Weitzman's (1974) seminal article about?
weitzman's (1974) seminal article on prices versus quantities
in doing so, the same structure of the risks points to setting a long-run quantitative goal for stabilising the atmospheric concentration of ghgs. the intuition behind this follows from weitzman's (1974) seminal article on prices versus quantities. this has often been used to inform debates over taxation versus cap-and-trade as a policy instrument for ghg emission abatement in the short term. here we reconsider it in the context of long-term emission reductions. weitzman showed that quantity controls are the more efficient policy tool if the benefits of further reductions in pollution increase more with the level of pollution than do the costs of delivering these reductions (i.e., there are potentially large and sharply rising costs associated with exceeding a given level of pollution). we have argued that this is precisely the situation we are facing in climate-change policy over the long term. as the stock of ghgs rises, marginal damages are likely to rise, and as the stock reaches levels associated with dangerous warming (see section 4), marginal damages may rise steeply (i.e., there is strong convexity in the longrun marginal damage cost function). with time to adjust and with technical change, the marginal costs of abatement should by contrast be relatively flat.
What did the study builds about?
this study builds on 2.5 arcminute (approximately 4 km) resolution interpolated climate data of average monthly minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and precipitation for the 1961-1990 normal period
Who developed the climate grids?
these climate grids have been developed by daly et al. (2002) using prism. we have previouslyshown thatthis methodisparticularly well suitedfor modeling precipitation in mountainous regions on british columbia and the yukon territories hamann and wang, 2005 ), and that a combination of bi-linear interpolation and elevation adjustment can be used for ''intelligent'' downscaling of temperature data to higher resolution in mountainous regions, thereby improving the statistical precision and accuracy of temperature estimates and derived climate variables hamann and wang, 2005; wang et al., 2006 
What methodology is applied in this study?
in this study weapply the samemethodologytoanextendedstudyarea, now covering the yukon territory, british columbia, alberta, saskatchewan, manitoba and parts of the united states fig. 1 ). because of insufficient weather station coverage, the northwest territories were not covered in this study
this study builds on 2.5 arcminute (approximately 4 km) resolution interpolated climate data of average monthly minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and precipitation for the 1961-1990 normal period. these climate grids have been developed by daly et al. (2002) using prism. we have previouslyshown thatthis methodisparticularly well suitedfor modeling precipitation in mountainous regions on british columbia and the yukon territories hamann and wang, 2005 ), and that a combination of bi-linear interpolation and elevation adjustment can be used for ''intelligent'' downscaling of temperature data to higher resolution in mountainous regions, thereby improving the statistical precision and accuracy of temperature estimates and derived climate variables hamann and wang, 2005; wang et al., 2006 ). in this study weapply the samemethodologytoanextendedstudyarea, now covering the yukon territory, british columbia, alberta, saskatchewan, manitoba and parts of the united states fig. 1 ). because of insufficient weather station coverage, the northwest territories were not covered in this study.
What does recent research suggest regarding inequality between and within generations?
these observations can be buttressed by the recent research into subjective reports of well-being which suggest that there is an important difference between inequality within a generation, and inequality between generations
What are the two main conclusions by Di Tella and MacCulloch in the field of happiness economics?
in a careful review of happiness economics, di tella and macculloch (2006) conclude that the evidence is consistent with two assumptions. first, happiness is derived from relative levels of consumption, suggesting that inequality matters. second, aggregate happiness remains relatively constant over time (easterlin, 1974, 1995) which suggests that inequality in consumption over time is less important
How can preferences for risk, spatial and temporal inequality impact the Review's estimate of the costs of climate change?
while it is difficult to determine the net effect of disentangling preferences for risk, spatial and temporal inequality, it is clear that so doing could have a very significant impact on the review's estimate of the costs of climate change
carlsson et al., 2005). it is easy to imagine a person who is highly averse to risks (high e and at the same time cares very little about equality (low e ), or indeed a person who willingly accepts risk (low e and at the same supports redistribution from rich to poor (high e ). similarly, risk-averse people (high e may care a great deal about future generations even though they are wealthier (low e ), and so on. these observations can be buttressed by the recent research into subjective reports of well-being which suggest that there is an important difference between inequality within a generation, and inequality between generations. in a careful review of happiness economics, di tella and macculloch (2006) conclude that the evidence is consistent with two assumptions. first, happiness is derived from relative levels of consumption, suggesting that inequality matters. second, aggregate happiness remains relatively constant over time (easterlin, 1974, 1995) which suggests that inequality in consumption over time is less important. theoretical reasons why egalitarianism between generations is more difficult to justify than egalitarianism within generations are advanced by beckerman and pasek (2001, ch. 4). these observations suggest that the standard model is not rich enough to separate the key ethical dimensions relevant to climate change. in particular, utility functions that separate risk from intertemporal substitution (epstein and zin, 1989) and risk from inequality (kreps and porteus, 1978) would be a preferable starting point. while it is difficult to determine the net effect of disentangling preferences for risk, spatial and temporal inequality, it is clear that so doing could have a very significant impact on the review's estimate of the costs of climate change.
What were the new regression models compared with?
the new regression models were compared with other specifications in the literature by using the root-mean squared error (rms) of out-of-sample predictions
How many times each model was estimated?
each model is estimated 1,000 times, randomly choosing 48 years of our 56-year history of yields
What is considered as a baseline?
as a baseline, we consider a model with county-fixed effects
the new regression models were compared with other specifications in the literature by using the root-mean squared error (rms) of out-of-sample predictions. each model is estimated 1,000 times, randomly choosing 48 years of our 56-year history of yields. the estimates are then used to predict yield outcomes for the remaining eight years  14%) of each sample. we randomly sample whole years and not observations because yields are spatially correlated in any given year. we compare our own three specifications of temperature effects (step function, polynomial, and piecewise linear) with three alternative specifications: i a model with average temperatures for each of four months (1); ii an approximation of growingdegree days based on monthly average temperatures (thom's formula) (4); and iii a measure of growing-degree days, calculated by using daily mean temperatures (8), that does not include a separate category for extremely warm temperatures. as a baseline, we consider a model with county-fixed effects
According to the estimates, what is the dollar amount required to address the underlying risk factors for disasters?
this suggests that several hundred billion dollars a year are required to address the underlying risk factors for disasters
What are the sources of funding?
not all this funding would need to come from international development assistance agencies, as a proportion of the funding would come from taxes and other revenues from within the nations and from households
these estimates are also broadly in line with estimates in the 2009 report of the international strategy for disaster reduction (isdr, 2009), for the investments needed to reduce the deficit in disaster-risk avoidance and risk reduction. this suggests that several hundred billion dollars a year are required to address the underlying risk factors for disasters (including those relating to climate change). but this report quite rightly emphasises that the availability of funding is only a part of the solution, because solutions also depend on national and local governments with the competence, capacity and accountability to make the needed investments. of course, the above figures are based on 'guesstimates' and heroic assumptions - but they are at least likely to be within the right order of magnitude. not all this funding would need to come from international development assistance agencies, as a proportion of the funding would come from taxes and other revenues from within the nations and from households. here, it is difficult to estimate what proportion this would provide: for some nations (such as china), most will come from domestic sources; for many sub-saharan african nations, most or all will have to come from external sources. but even if half the funding for this comes from the domestic resources of governments in lowand middle-income nations, this still means an external funding requirement of over $3 trillion to address current infrastructure deficits.
What research was conducted in two sections of Kutubdia Para?
within both communities we targeted fishery-dependent households, which constituted 89 (811 households) and 83 (994 households), respectively, of the total households in padma and middle and north kutubdia para (our research was conducted in these two sections of kutubdia para
When was the data collected?
the data were collected during october 2010 and between february and july 2011 using a multi-method approach
What technique was followed to select questionnaire participants?
a simple random sampling technique was followed to select questionnaire participants and the sample sizes were decided as 100 from each community (calculated according to procedures in un 2005 and adjusted to take account of respective population size). participants were typically household heads. when the household head was absent, another adult member of that household was interviewed
data collection and analysis within both communities we targeted fishery-dependent households, which constituted 89 (811 households) and 83 (994 households), respectively, of the total households in padma and middle and north kutubdia para (our research was conducted in these two sections of kutubdia para). the data were collected during october 2010 and between february and july 2011 using a multi-method approach. sensitivity and adaptive capacity data were collected using household questionnaires, whereas exposure data were collected from secondary sources listed in tables 1 and 2 a simple random sampling technique was followed to select questionnaire participants and the sample sizes were decided as 100 from each community (calculated according to procedures in un 2005 and adjusted to take account of respective population size). participants were typically household heads. when the household head was absent, another adult member of that household was interviewed. the dataset from the sampled households was divided into quartiles of vulnerability (very high, high, moderate, and low), each representing a fourth of the population sampled for each indicator and index (table 3 ). z-test and anova were conducted to determine significant differences, respectively, between two and more than two data sets. anova was also conducted to investigate significance of an indicator in distinguishing the vulnerability classes. we calculated vulnerability indices using equal weightings for each indicator (sullivan et al. 2002 ), due to the absence of any robust weighting method for this region. the currently used weighting methods are either considered as subjective (e.g. expert judgement) or statistically biased (e.g. principal component analysis and regression analysis). as an alternative, we discuss the role of each
What is the main source of public confict over climate change?
he source of the public conflict over climate change is not too little rationality but in a sense too much ordinary members of the public are too good at extracting from information the significance it has in their everyday lives
What consequence does a person have on policymaking?
what an ordinary person does--as consumer, voter, or participant in public discussions--is too inconsequential to affect either the climate or climate-change policymaking
What is an indicatior of cultural commitment?
positions on climate change have become such a readily identifiable indicator of ones' cultural commitments
the source of the public conflict over climate change is not too little rationality but in a sense too much ordinary members of the public are too good at extracting from information the significance it has in their everyday lives. what an ordinary person does--as consumer, voter, or participant in public discussions--is too inconsequential to affect either the climate or climate-change policymaking. accordingly, if her actions in one of those capacities reflects a misunderstanding of the basic facts on global warming, neither she nor anyone she cares about will face any greater risk. but because positions on climate change have become such a readily identifiable indicator of ones' cultural commitments, adopting a stance toward climate change that deviates from the one that prevails among her closest associates could have devastating consequences, psychic and material. thus, it is perfectly rational --perfectly in line with using information appropriately to achieve an important personal end--for that individual to attend to information in a manner that more reliably connects her beliefs about climate change to the ones that predominate among her peers than to the best available scientific evidence (kahan, 2012). if that person happens to enjoy greater proficiency in the skills and dispositions necessary to make sense of such evidence, then she can simply use those capacities to do an even better job at forming identity-protective beliefs. that people high in numeracy, cognitive reflection and like dispositions use these abilities to find and credit evidence supportive of the position that predominates in their cultural group and to explain away the rest has been demonstrated experimentally (kahan, 2013b; kahan et al., 2013). proficiency in the sort of reasoning that is indeed indispensable for genuine science comprehension does not bring the beliefs of individuals on climate change into greater conformity with those of scientists; it merely makes those individuals' beliefs even more indicators or measures of the relationship between those beliefs and the identities of those who share their defining commitments. when "what do you believe" about a societal risk validly measures "who are you?" or "whose side are you on?," identity-protective cognition is not a breakdown in individual reason but a form of it. without question this style of reasoning is collectively disastrous: the more proficiently it is exercised by the citizens of a culturally diverse democratic society, the less likely they are to converge on scientific evidence essential to protecting them from harm. but the predictable tragedy of this outcome does not counteract the incentive individuals face to use their reason for identity protection. only changing what that question measures--and what answers to it express about people--can. provoking the interference pattern: "messaging" scientific consensus
What does a near zero calue of the PAV quantity mean?
near zero value of the pav quantity means that, for the quantity of interest (e.g., spatial-mean 95th percentile), the high-resolution estimation does not add extra information over the coarse resolution one
how can PAV 0 be interpreted?
analogously, pav 0 can be interpreted as if the application of spatial filters in order to approximate the high-resolution precipitation field at lower resolutions doesn't filter out any finescale variability
What are sufficient conditions for PAV 0?
sufficient conditions for pav 0 are given by a spatially uniform intensity-frequency distribution field or a field that only contains variability at scales larger than 3.2
a near zero value of the pav quantity means that, for the quantity of interest (e.g., spatial-mean 95th percentile), the high-resolution estimation does not add extra information over the coarse resolution one. analogously, pav 0 can be interpreted as if the application of spatial filters in order to approximate the high-resolution precipitation field at lower resolutions doesn't filter out any finescale variability. sufficient conditions for pav 0 are given by a spatially uniform intensity-frequency distribution field or a field that only contains variability at scales larger than 3.2  it should be clear, as was discussed in the that a non-zero value for pavmdoes not necessarily mean that the rcm is adding value, because the small-scale variability may not necessarily be skilful. that is, pavm= 0 is a necessary, but not sufficient, condition for a high-resolution adding value of type 1 to lower resolution fields. a relative measure of spatial-mean pavmcan also be obtained by defining r pavm 1/4  pavm
how single value for each measure was calculated?
we calculated a single value for each measure by averaging all pitfall captures for 2003 and 2004, or counts from the two litter sifts in 2004
which approach was elected?
we elected to use this conservative approach and did not use a more complicated anova for the reasons given above, i.e., the nonindependence of rainfall and spiderdensity treatments, and the difficulty of incorporating site as a random factor into such a design
to determine the extent to which the spiderremoval procedures reduced spider numbers (activity-density from pitfall trapping and absolute density from sifting the litter), for each 0.5-m2plot we calculated a single value for each measure by averaging all pitfall captures for 2003 and 2004, or counts from the two litter sifts in 2004. we then averaged the data from the two replicates in each 14-m2plot to obtain a single estimate of activity-density or absolute density for each spider-density treatment within each 14-m2plot. we performed paired t tests on these values, pooling rainfall treatments and sites, to give a measure of the simple effect of the removal  exclusion procedure on spider numbers. we elected to use this conservative approach and did not use a more complicated anova for the reasons given above, i.e., the nonindependence of rainfall and spiderdensity treatments, and the difficulty of incorporating site as a random factor into such a design. to determine whether rainfall treatment or site affected the extent to which the spider removal  exclusion procedures altered spider numbers, we calculated an index of the difference in spider numbers between treatments analogous to the trophic cascade index and used the same mixed-model anova.
What is the main source of global climate change?
the main source of global climate change is human-induced changes in atmospheric composition
Why is Planet Earth habitable?
planet earth is habitable because of its location relative to the sun and because of the natural greenhouse effect of its atmosphere
To how many petawatts does the energy from the sun received at the top of the Earth's atmosphere amount?
the energy from the sun received at the top of the earth's atmosphere amounts to 175 petawatts
modern climate change is dominated by human influences, which are now large enough to exceed the bounds of natural variability. the main source of global climate change is human-induced changes in atmospheric composition. these perturbations primarily result from emissions associated with energy use, but on local and regional scales, urbanization and land use changes are also important. although there has been progress in monitoring and understanding climate change, there remain many scientific, technical, and institutional impediments to precisely planning for, adapting to, and mitigating the effects of climate change. there is still considerable uncertainty about the rates of change that can be expected, but it is clear that these changes will be increasingly manifested in important and tangible ways, such as changes in extremes of temperature and precipitation, decreases in seasonal and perennial snow and ice extent, and sea level rise. anthropogenic climate change is now likely to continue for many centuries. we are venturing into the unknown with climate, and its associated impacts could be quite disruptive. the atmosphere is a global commons that responds to many types of emissions into it, as well as to changes in the surface beneath it. as human balloon flights around the world illustrate, the air over a specific location is typically halfway around the world a week later, making climate change a truly global issue. planet earth is habitable because of its location relative to the sun and because of the natural greenhouse effect of its atmosphere. various atmospheric gases contribute to the greenhouse effect, whose impact in clear skies is  60% from water vapor,  25% from carbon dioxide,  8% from ozone, and the rest from trace gases including methane and nitrous oxide 1 ). clouds also have a greenhouse effect. on average, the energy from the sun received at the top of the earth's atmosphere amounts to 175 petawatts (pw) (or 175 quadrillion watts), of which  31% is
What has been the almost exclusive focus of studies in developing country cities?
the focus of studies in developing country cities has almost exclusively been on qualitativelyexpressed increased flood risks from sea-level rise, reflecting the fact that that the majority of large developing country cities are sited in coastal locations, and that many of them are periodically affected by flooding from coastal storm surge, associated with current climate variability
Why have climate risk impacts not been properly considered?
the often limited understanding of climate risks and the limited institutional capacity that characterise many of these cities have ensured that climate change analysis at the city-scale has 36 generally not progressed further to consider other potential impacts
What has been an issue with quantitative impact assessments?
the limited coverage of quantitative impact assessments within city-scale studies is summarised in error! reference source not found. based on a risk matrix developed by watkiss and downing, (2008
the focus of studies in developing country cities has almost exclusively been on qualitativelyexpressed increased flood risks from sea-level rise, reflecting the fact that that the majority of large developing country cities are sited in coastal locations, and that many of them are periodically affected by flooding from coastal storm surge, associated with current climate variability. this focus also reflects the relatively advanced level of analysis that is possible in the case of sea-level rise. however, the often limited understanding of climate risks and the limited institutional capacity that characterise many of these cities have ensured that climate change analysis at the city-scale has 36 generally not progressed further to consider other potential impacts. this is of particular concern given that the evidence strongly suggests climate change impacts will be more severe in these developing countries and perhaps their major cities (wilbanks et al, 2007). given these resource constraints, we therefore suggest that increasing standardisation of impact methodologies is likely to be a worthwhile ambition in city-scale studies and more generally in facilitating comparisons. in addition, where public funds for adaptation are distributed on a global basis, resources can be more efficiently allocated when relative vulnerabilities can be compared. the limited coverage of quantitative impact assessments within city-scale studies is summarised in error! reference source not found. based on a risk matrix developed by watkiss and downing, (2008). xfigure 2x serves to summarise the coverage of monetary valuation of impacts in these studies across different types of effects on human welfare, e.g. market and non-market, and different manifestations of climate change e.g. changes in climate means or the frequency of extreme weather events. uncertainty in climate projections and monetary valuation estimation increases as we move from the top of the figure to the bottom, and in from the left of the figure to the right, respectively.
The success of any anaerobic process depends on what?
the success of any anaerobic process, especially the high-rate ones, depends fundamentally on the maintenance (inside the reactors) of an adapted biomass with a high microbiological activity that is resistant to shock loads
The success of method developed by James et al. (1990) is dependent on what?
the simplified method developed by james et al. (1990), from an adaptation of the operation of the warburg respirometer, was undoubtedly a valuable contribution, but as the authors themselves stated, greater success was dependent on the automation of the gas measurement system and on the optimisation of the monitoring system of the test as a whole
The replacement of the conventional manometers with pressure transducers made what kind of changes in the gas measurement system?
the incorporation of these devices facilitated significantly the detection of the pressure differential inside the reaction and control flasks, besides allowing the transmission of electric pulses to a computer terminal
in the last few years, with the development of high-rate anaerobic processes and the increased knowledge of the microbiology and biochemistry of the process, a growing use of anaerobic digestion has been observed for the treatment of a diverse number of liquid effluents. however, the success of any anaerobic process, especially the high-rate ones, depends fundamentally on the maintenance (inside the reactors) of an adapted biomass with a high microbiological activity that is resistant to shock loads. the development of techniques for the evaluation of the microbial activity in anaerobic reactors is very important, especially of the methanogenic archaea, so that the biomass can be preserved and monitored. in this respect, several methods have been proposed to evaluate the anaerobic microbial activity, considering the assessment of the specific methanogenic activity sma ). however, the precision of several methodologies was considered doubtful or too sophisticated for reproduction in laboratories. another problem identified refers to the difficulty, or even impossibility, in obtaining anaerobic sludge in sufficient amounts, from reactors in laboratory scale, for the development of conventional tests. a preliminary analysis of the studies already developed in the area indicates that some methods used for the evaluation of the sma are crude or imprecise, whilst others are too expensive or sophisticated. the simplified method developed by james et al. (1990), from an adaptation of the operation of the warburg respirometer, was undoubtedly a valuable contribution, but as the authors themselves stated, greater success was dependent on the automation of the gas measurement system and on the optimisation of the monitoring system of the test as a whole. biomass in anaerobic systems 703 in this regard, the work developed by monteggia (1991), incorporating manometers with electric sensors for the continuous monitoring of the biogas production, constituted an important improvement on the sma test. recently, some innovations have been presented in relation to the gas measurement system, which replaced the conventional manometers with pressure transducers. the incorporation of these devices facilitated significantly the detection of the pressure differential inside the reaction and control flasks, besides allowing the transmission of electric pulses to a computer terminal.
What caused the ice sheet to melt?
strong boreal summer insolation melted the ice sheets
Describe the position of the westerlies?
the westerlies were therefore stronger or in a more poleward position throughout the interval between the end of stage 6 and the beginning of 5d
What happened to the Antarctica and the Southern during 5d?
as a result, antarctica and the southern ocean cooled right back down during 5d
the argument here is that a reduced temperature contrast across the equator at the end of stage 6 and then again during 5d and 5b (due to strong austral summer insolation) spun up the amoc and cooled the southern ocean. during 5e, strong boreal summer insolation melted the ice sheets and flooded the north atlantic with meltwater. the amoc would normally have weakened at this time but the strong cooling in the north made the westerlies especially strong. the westerlies were therefore stronger or in a more poleward position throughout the interval between the end of stage 6 and the beginning of 5d, at which time they were able to quickly spin up the amoc once the amoc was no longer suppressed. as a result, antarctica and the southern ocean cooled right back down during 5d. a hypothetical north - south position for the strongest westerlies over time is shown at the bottom of figure 8.
Where is the Australian Wet Tropics bioregion located?
the australian wet tropics bioregion (awt) is located in far north queensland between 19 u 30's and 15 u 30's
What does the region consist of?
the region is dominated by tropical rainforest, which covers an area of 10,000 km2and is primarily distributed along the mountain ranges in this region, temperature is one of the most important variables driving trends of distribution of many species along elevational gradients of the mountain systems mean annual rainfall in the region varies between 1500 mm and 3300 mm with approximately 75-90% falling between november and april
What does species richness and bird abundance exhibit here?
both species richness and bird abundance exhibit a humped-shaped pattern with elevation, with highest values found between 600 m and 800 m
the australian wet tropics bioregion (awt) is located in far north queensland between 19 u 30's and 15 u 30's. the region is dominated by tropical rainforest, which covers an area of 10,000 km2and is primarily distributed along the mountain ranges in this region, temperature is one of the most important variables driving trends of distribution of many species along elevational gradients of the mountain systems mean annual rainfall in the region varies between 1500 mm and 3300 mm with approximately 75-90% falling between november and april the bird community shows strong trends of assemblage structure along the elevational gradient with high levels of regional endemism in the uplands [18,23]. both species richness and bird abundance exhibit a humped-shaped pattern with elevation, with highest values found between 600 m and 800 m
What could be a result from changes in rainfall?
changes in the distribution of daily precipitation totals and in the persistence of dry days may lead to an increased frequency of droughts in some areas and increased flooding in others (watson et al ., 1997). projections
Why would there be less rain?
projections of humaninduced climate changes driven by increases in atmospheric co2 have suggested increases in the frequency of low precipitation during summer and the occurrence of long dry spells for the northern hemisphere (gregory et al ., 1997
When and where were drought condition worst?
drought conditions in spain and portugal in 2005 were the most severe since the
europe is likely to experience a diverse range of impacts in response to climate change, with temperature increases accompanied by a perturbed hydrological cycle. changes in the distribution of daily precipitation totals and in the persistence of dry days may lead to an increased frequency of droughts in some areas and increased flooding in others (watson et al ., 1997). projections of humaninduced climate changes driven by increases in atmospheric co2 have suggested increases in the frequency of low precipitation during summer and the occurrence of long dry spells for the northern hemisphere (gregory et al ., 1997). in recent decades, several extensive droughts have affected the european region, most notably in 1976, 1988-1992, 1997 (bradford, 2000) and 2003 (fleig et al ., 2005). drought conditions in spain and portugal in 2005 were the most severe since the
what is A1B?
sing a selection of tuning parameter sets that best reproduce the current observations, we run the model to determine future behaviour through the year 2200 for a mid-range future warming scenario (a1b
How atmospheric and oceanic forcing for the model is derived?
the atmospheric and oceanic forcing for these runs are derived from the regional climate models, mar and echam5 gcm
How to examine the sensitivity of our sea-level projection?
in order to further examine the sensitivity of our sea-level projection to the chosen climate scenarios, we perform an additional set of runs for an upper-end future warming scenario (rcp8.5)23
using a selection of tuning parameter sets that best reproduce the current observations, we run the model to determine future behaviour through the year 2200 for a mid-range future warming scenario (a1b). the atmospheric and oceanic forcing for these runs are derived from the regional climate models, mar and echam5 gcm (see supplementary information, s1). for each glacier we ran simulations with 50 parameter sets. of these results, we present five parameterizations that sample the full range of retreat (supplementary table s2). in order to further examine the sensitivity of our sea-level projection to the chosen climate scenarios, we perform an additional set of runs for an upper-end future warming scenario (rcp8.5)23.
In which period car registration increased in Uk?
in the uk, new car registration increased 13 per cent between 1996 and 2006
What encourages car usage?
the expansion of road networks encourages car use, too
What causes rapid economic growth in China?
the implication of these broad (and often crude) iea scenarios is that the rapid economic growth (and associated population increases) of china and india is at the core of any serious attempt to decarbonize the world economy
the trends in developed countries are adverse, too. in the uk, new car registration increased 13 per cent between 1996 and 2006, while air passenger numbers increased by 54 m between 2001 and 2006 (office of national statistics, 2008). the importance of the embedding of carbon-intensive production capacity in the capital stock in china and elsewhere is not just in respect of power stations and cars. it applies to energy transmission and distribution systems, which may be designed for largeor small-scale technologies, and it applies, too, to the transport sector. new airport capacity causes demand to increase for aviation. china has recently been reported to be increasing its regional airports capacity in the order of some 97 new regional airports by 2020,8and it is notable across europe that governments are encouraging new runway and terminal capacity.9the expansion of road networks encourages car use, too. once these infrastructures are built, the marginal costs are significantly below the average costs, and marginal cost pricing leads to greater utilization. a carbon economy embeds fossil fuels into the fabric of its infrastructure. the implication of these broad (and often crude) iea scenarios is that the rapid economic growth (and associated population increases) of china and india is at the core of any serious attempt to decarbonize the world economy. whether china builds 1,000 gw of coal-fired electricity generation and whether it adds half a billion cars with conventional engines is of an order of magnitude more important to climate change than virtually any other trend. the corollary is obvious, too: climate-change policies matter largely insofar as they address these global trends, and local policies such as wind generation in remote locations are relevant largely insofar as they have an impact on behaviour in these developing economies. it does not, of course, follow that developed countries should not reduce their own emissions--indeed,
How does the  American culture readily support the protection of children?
 american culture readily supports the protection of children by restricting the marketing of tobacco and alcohol and by mandating immunizations, the use of safety restraints in automobiles, and more
According to the author , what is the path to progress?
we believe the path to progress is not disputing the fundamental belief in responsibility, but embracing it and developing public health intervention in its service
What is the  novel and powerful public health approach especially in the case of children?
successfully framing the childhood obesity issue as defending children's health and basic human right to nutritious food opens the door to novel and powerful public health approaches
we believe the path to progress is not disputing the fundamental belief in responsibility, but embracing it and developing public health intervention in its service. maximizing responsibility is possible only when the environment supports it. this case is more easily made when the focus is children rather than adults. american culture readily supports the protection of children by restricting the marketing of tobacco and alcohol and by mandating immunizations, the use of safety restraints in automobiles, and more. successfully framing the childhood obesity issue as defending children's health and basic human right to nutritious food opens the door to novel and powerful public health approaches.
"Information overload" makes it difficult to do what?
information overload" makes it difficult to store, manipulate, analyze, and visual ize scientific data, as well as to identify the best available science to incorporate in resource management
What are the scales of most scientific literature on climate change?
most of the scientific literature on climate change is at regional and larger scales, although an increasing amount of information is avail able at subregional scales (e.g., elsner et al. 2009
The principles described below can help in what way?
the principles described below can help determine the best available science for a particular application (peterson et al. 2007
"information overload" makes it difficult to store, manipulate, analyze, and visual ize scientific data, as well as to identify the best available science to incorporate in resource management. most of the scientific literature on climate change is at regional and larger scales, although an increasing amount of information is avail able at subregional scales (e.g., elsner et al. 2009). finding and evaluating scientific information relevant for a vulnerability assessment can be challenging, and working with local scientific experts is often necessary. predicted effects of climate change may be uncertain and conflicting, which requires users to consider the scientific credibility and applicability of different sources. the principles described below can help determine the best available science for a particular application (peterson et al. 2007).
How to measurement the site?
the ground cover around each measurement site varied, but the surface materials within the urban canyons were similar
What is UoM?
with the exception of the university of moratuwa (uom) site, which had a graveled road, ground surface materials consisted of asphalted roads and concrete sidewalks. building facades generally consisted of plastered bricks or concrete blocks. however, urban geometry and distance to the sea varied (table 2
What is Field measurements?
field measurements were carried out during the period of april 30 to may 16, 2003. the measurements were taken during the inter-monsoon period, which is characterized by relatively high temperatures and humidity (fig. 3) as well as low wind speeds
the ground cover around each measurement site varied, but the surface materials within the urban canyons were similar. with the exception of the university of moratuwa (uom) site, which had a graveled road, ground surface materials consisted of asphalted roads and concrete sidewalks. building facades generally consisted of plastered bricks or concrete blocks. however, urban geometry and distance to the sea varied (table 2). 3.2. field measurements field measurements were carried out during the period of april 30 to may 16, 2003. the measurements were taken during the inter-monsoon period, which is characterized by relatively high temperatures and humidity (fig. 3) as well as low wind speeds. during the measurement period, the average diurnal temperature and relative humidity measured at the colombo
What is the year of the source from COM/ENV/EPOC/DCD/DAC 1/FINAL?
2003
The results of this analysis are sumarized by which table?
table 3 7
Impacts of the findings are most likely to become severe in which half of the 21st centrury?
first half
com/env/epoc/dcd/dac(2003)1/final 17 17 climate change (houghton et al., 2001) concluded that higher maximum and minimum temperatures are very likely, more intense precipitation is very likely over most areas, and that more intense droughts, increased cyclone wind speeds and precipitation are likely over some areas. * timing when are impacts in a particular sector likely to become severe or critical? based on available information, we considered whether impacts are likely to become so in the first or second half of this century. * severity of impact how large could climate change impacts be? essentially this factor considers the sensitivity of a sector to climate change. for the most part, we did not consider the ability of adaptation to cope with climate change impacts. * importance of the sector is the sector particularly critical in terms of its size of economy, cultural or other importance, or its potential to affect other sectors? this factor considers exposure of the sector to climate change, that is, how many people, property, or other valuable assets could be affected by climate change. a score of high, medium, or low for each factor is then assigned for each assessed sector. in ranking the risks from climate change, the scoring for all four factors was considered, but the most weight was placed on the certainty of impact. impacts that are most certain, most severe, and most likely to become severe in the first half of the 21st century are ranked the highest. the results of this analysis are summarized in table 3 7.
why teleosts can be found in almost all aquatic habitats?
this capacity to evolve euryhalinity may be one reason that teleosts can be found in almost all aquatic habitats
Are milkfish diadromes?
among them, milkfish are marine residents but are extremely euryhaline throughout their life history i.e. non-diadromous
do milkfish tolerate abrupt changes in salinity?
bagrinao, 1994 the present study confirms the capacity of juvenile milkfish to tolerate abrupt changes in salinity and the fish osmoregulate well over a wide range of salinities
fw or sw. the remaining 5% are euryhaline, having the capacity to withstand large changes in environmental salinity, a trait that is found among teleost lineages and has apparently evolved many times. this capacity to evolve euryhalinity may be one reason that teleosts can be found in almost all aquatic habitats. among them, milkfish are marine residents but are extremely euryhaline throughout their life history i.e. non-diadromous; bagrinao, 1994 the present study confirms the capacity of juvenile milkfish to tolerate abrupt changes in salinity and the fish osmoregulate well over a wide range of salinities. these characteristics make milkfish a very good model fish for research in osmoregulation. plasma osmolalities and na and cl levels q y
What is presented this study?
a comprehensive analysis of both the climate change and economic impacts of food waste in the us
what assessment has applied this study?
this study has applied a rigorous life cycle assessment methodology to calculate the annual life-cycle ghg emissions, which quantify the climate change impact of food waste
this study has presented, for the first time, a comprehensive analysis of both the climate change and economic impacts of food waste in the us. using the loss-adjusted food availability data from the us department of agriculture (usda ers, 2009) for 2009, this study has applied a rigorous life cycle assessment methodology to calculate the annual life-cycle ghg emissions, which quantify the climate change impact of food waste. the annual economic impact of the waste has been calculated using recent retail prices for food commodities. the analysis is based on life-cycle modeling and analysis of 134 distinct food commodities accounting for most of the food consumption in the us, most of which are produced in north america (except for tropical fruits and tuna).
What is the purpose of the Australian study?
the study aims to provide an understanding of australian households' perceptions of climate change and their preferences for the proposed cprs
Australia What percentage of people proposed in line with their priorities?
67 percent
the study aims to provide an understanding of australian households' perceptions of climate change and their preferences for the proposed cprs. a sample of over 600 sydney residents, about two thirds of whom were concerned about climate change and almost three quarters of whom believed climate change is caused by human action, attached relatively low levels of importance to climate change in comparison to other competing policy issues in australia. consistent with their priorities, a majority of 67 percent of the respondents rejected the prospect of paying extra household expenses to support the proposed emissions reduction scheme. household support for the scheme varied negatively with its potential cost. at a relatively lower level of cost, more households were supportive of the policy. the support for the policy declined as cost increased.
what is the definition of  loss and damage The UNFCCC?
the unfccc defines loss and damage as "the actual and/or potential manifestation of impacts associated with climate change in developing countries that negatively affect human and natural systems", including impacts from extreme events (for example heat waves, flooding and drought), and slow onset events (including sea level rise and glacial retreat
how will the WIM deal with losses?
the wim will deal with current and future changes in the risk of loss and damage, rather than only addressing losses that have actually occurred
what is the  first challenge in implementing the WIM ?
the first challenge in implementing the wim would be to estimate where and when loss and damage can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change
the unfccc defines loss and damage as "the actual and/or potential manifestation of impacts associated with climate change in developing countries that negatively affect human and natural systems", including impacts from extreme events (for example heat waves, flooding and drought), and slow onset events (including sea level rise and glacial retreat)4. this implies that the wim will deal with current and future changes in the risk of loss and damage, rather than only addressing losses that have actually occurred. in addition, the definition suggests that the wim will specifically handle changes in risk that can be attributed to climate change. in the language of the unfccc, which has a mandate to tackle "anthropogenic interference with the climate system"5, this means human-induced climate change. from a scientific perspective, therefore, the first challenge in implementing the wim would be to estimate where and when loss and damage can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change. this would require attributing losses to weather and climate events, and attributing these weather and climate events to anthropogenic emissions. policy-makers and observers of the wim have paid more attention to the former of these, for example by highlighting the importance of documenting case studies of loss and damage associated with extreme weather6. the link between weather and climate events and anthropogenic forcing, however, has been largely neglected, despite the increasing availability of scientific research addressing this question7-9. this imbalance has potentially led to an incomplete understanding of the evidence base. interestingly, with the focus on investigating the impacts rather than the causes of disasters, the work programme emphasises information gaps surrounding slow onset events2. of course, strategies to cope with the long term effects of climate change are less well established than risk management plans for extreme weather events. yet in terms of the influence of climate change on loss and damage, uncertainties are greater for extreme events than the long term processes behind slow onset events7. if the wim is to address changes in climatic risk, the capabilities and limitations of climate change attribution research deserve greater attention.
What policy do the authors suggest in order to help the most vulnerable people first?
the principle of putting the most vulnerable first justifies progressive redistribution to those who are most in need
What do the authors hope to achieve by putting a carbon tax in place?
the carbon tax provides powerful incentives for mitigation and thus the reduction of climate change impacts as well as an instrument to accumulate revenue for compensation and assistance. making these funds available for proactive and reactive adaptation in developing countries would in turn diminish the residual impacts that need to be compensated
In addition to a carbon tax, what other policy do the authors propose?
we also argue that a safe maximum standard of 400-500 ppm for atmospheric co2 concentrations and a tax of $20-50 per carbon equivalent ton could be used to implement the principles of distributive justice
we propose that adopting the principles of avoiding dangerous climate change, forward-looking responsibility, putting the most vulnerable first and equal participation of all would be a step towards fairer adaptation. the first three principles address the dilemmas of distributive justice involved in adaptation in a way that respects the diversity of affected parties and their situations. the principle of avoiding dangerous climate change can provide a degree of absolute protection to all vital interests, the principle of forward-looking responsibility gives effect to efficiency concerns and the principle of putting the most vulnerable first justifies progressive redistribution to those who are most in need. the last principle provides a guideline for resolving dilemmas of procedural justice, suggesting that all affected parties have rights, which have to be respected by recognition and participation. we also argue that a safe maximum standard of 400-500 ppm for atmospheric co2 concentrations and a tax of $20-50 per carbon equivalent ton could be used to implement the principles of distributive justice. the safe maximum standard is needed to provide the absolute safety net and to constrain the sphere of economic optimisation. the carbon tax provides powerful incentives for mitigation and thus the reduction of climate change impacts as well as an instrument to accumulate revenue for compensation and assistance. making these funds available for proactive and reactive adaptation in developing countries would in turn diminish the residual impacts that need to be compensated. at the same time, burden of assistance would be shared in proportion to contribution to climate change. acknowledgements we thank the tyndall centre for climate change research and the uk economic and social research council for funding and the international institute for environment and development (iied) and the foundation for international environmental law and development (field) for collaboration. neil adger thanks the leverhulme trust for additional support. we also thank the three referees, suraje dessai, mike hulme, saleemul huq, j q rgen lefevere and benito m q ller for comments, suggestions and discussions on earlier versions. shortcomings remain exclusively our own responsibility. references
What does CLASSIC stand for?
coupled large - scale aerosol simulator for studies in climate (classic
Which aerosols are interactive?
emissions or chemical production of mineral dust, sea salt, and nitrate aerosols are interactive, as described below
How is large-scale precipitation is corrected?
wet deposition by large - scale precipitation is corrected for reevaporation of precipitation: tracer mass is transferred from a dissolved mode to an accumulation mode in proportion of reevaporated precipitation. for convective precipitation, accumulation mode aerosols are removed in proportion to the simulated convective mass flux
the aerosol module of hadgem2 is called the coupled large - scale aerosol simulator for studies in climate (classic). it contains numerical representations for up to eight tropospheric aerosol species: ammonium sulphate, mineral dust, sea salt, fossil fuel black carbon, fossil fuel organic carbon, biomass burning aerosols, secondary organic (also called biogenic), and ammonium nitrate aerosols. although each species is associated with a dedicated scheme, some aspects are shared. emissions or chemical production of mineral dust, sea salt, and nitrate aerosols are interactive, as described below. emissions for the other species or their precursors are from cmip5 data sets. transported species experience boundary layer and convective mixing and are removed by dry and wet deposition. wet deposition by large - scale precipitation is corrected for reevaporation of precipitation: tracer mass is transferred from a dissolved mode to an accumulation mode in proportion of reevaporated precipitation. for convective precipitation, accumulation mode aerosols are removed in proportion to the simulated convective mass flux. ammonium sulphate aerosols are part of the interactive sulphur cycle of hadgem2 - es, as described by jones et al. [2001] and roberts and jones [2004]. the cycle starts with emissions of sulphur dioxide (so2) and dimethyl sulphide (dms), the latter being provided by the ocean
What is considered a threat?
global warming
what are considered large?
the damages from climate change
what steps can be taken to decrease damages from climate change?
undertake sharp and immediate reductions in greenhouse-gas emissions
how much and how fast should we react to the threat of global warming? the stern review argues that the damages from climate change are large, and that nations should undertake sharp and immediate reductions in greenhouse-gas emissions. an examination of the review's radical revision of the economics of climate change finds, however, that it depends decisively on the assumption of a near-zero time discount rate combined with a specific utility function. the review's unambiguous conclusions about the need for extreme immediate action will not survive the substitution of assumptions that are consistent with today's marketplace real interest rates and savings rates.
What was used to demonstrate that the main patterns of temperature and sea-level variations can be explained by changes in oceanic heat transport?
using a synthesis of proxy data from the last glacial period and a coupled climate model, we have demonstrated that the main patterns of temperature and sea-level variations recorded in a variety of archives during abrupt glacial climate events can largely be explained by changes in the oceanic heat transport related directly to freshwater discharge and the large-scale thermohaline circulation
Does ocean circulation changes play a crucial role in modulating the Earth's climate?
this supports the view that the ocean circulation and its potential nonlinear changes play a crucial role in modulating the earth's climate on global and regional scales
Was it determined whether atmospheric processes, oceanic thresholds, ice-sheet dynamics, and their coupling or an external forcing acted as the pacemaker of abrupt climate changes or not?
we have obtained a quantitative picture of how the ocean circulation has shaped millennial-scale climate variability during the last glacial period, but are still unable to determine whether atmospheric processes, oceanic thresholds, ice-sheet dynamics, and their coupling or an external forcing acted as the pacemaker of abrupt climate changes
using a synthesis of proxy data from the last glacial period and a coupled climate model, we have demonstrated that the main patterns of temperature and sea-level variations recorded in a variety of archives during abrupt glacial climate events can largely be explained by changes in the oceanic heat transport related directly to freshwater discharge and the large-scale thermohaline circulation. this supports the view that the ocean circulation and its potential nonlinear changes play a crucial role in modulating the earth's climate on global and regional scales. but there is also a strong response of the atmospheric circulation and of precipitation, indicating that atmospheric processes and feedbacks are relevant to transmit the abrupt atlantic climate signals to other regions47. we have obtained a quantitative picture of how the ocean circulation has shaped millennial-scale climate variability during the last glacial period, but are still unable to determine whether atmospheric processes, oceanic thresholds, ice-sheet dynamics, and their coupling or an external forcing acted as the pacemaker of abrupt climate changes. a
What do both ECHAM-driven models project?
both echam-driven models project overall decreases in future droughts, with some increases along the mediterranean coast
How will severity and duration of long droughts change?
the severity and duration of long droughts are projected to increase across the region; the maximum drought length increases by ~ 30 months for some grid cells
What is likely to happen in the region?
the region is therefore likely to experience increased pressure on water resources, particularly groundwater, due to decreases in recharge during the cooler, wetter part of the year
ebro/gallego region. as for the brenta, there is considerable uncertainty in the spatial distribution of projections of dro3e (figure 8). however, for this region, the source of the uncertainty seems to be linked to the choice of the driving gcm. both echam-driven models project overall decreases in future droughts, with some increases along the mediterranean coast. in contrast, hadley-driven rcms project an overall increase in frequencies. uncertainty in the future occurrence of dro10 events is much smaller with all model projections indicating increases for almost all grid cells. the severity and duration of long droughts are projected to increase across the region; the maximum drought length increases by ~ 30 months for some grid cells. the region is therefore likely to experience increased pressure on water resources, particularly groundwater, due to decreases in recharge during the cooler, wetter part of the year.
What is the scaling approach?
scaling approach simulations three climate model pairs of control and a2 scenario simulations were chosen for use in tests of the scaling approach
What is the global climate?
these were from the global climate model hadam3h and two rcm simulations, rcao and rcao25, driven by the same model. this also provided a consistent chain of results to assess the value of increased climate model resolution
scaling approach simulations three climate model pairs of control and a2 scenario simulations were chosen for use in tests of the scaling approach. these were from the global climate model hadam3h and two rcm simulations, rcao and rcao25, driven by the same model. this also provided a consistent chain of results to assess the value of increased climate model resolution. as shown in figure 4a, none of these climate models, regardless of resolution, were able to produce hydrological model simulations that were comparable to using observed climate as input. the direct input simulation from the gcm gave a volume error of -9% as compared to the reference simulation. winter river discharge was well simulated while both summer and autumn discharges were underestimated. the spring peak flow was on average about 13% too large, and some two to three weeks too early. rcao resulted in a volume error of about +34
To capture larger temporal scale changes, which mountain ranges were used to evaluate 18O?
the tp and the andes
What percentage of snowfall over both the TP and the Andes typically arrive during their respective summers?
70-80
The Figure 6A Tropical Composite is based on seven cores for the last 1,000 yr, six cores for the last 1,550 yr, and how many cores for the last 2000 years?
four cores
the last two millennia to capture larger temporal scale changes, regional composites for the tp (fig. 6 b and the andes (fig. 6 c were constructed by using the decadal averages of 18o over the last 2,000 yr. because 70-80% of the snowfall over both the tp and the andes arrives during their respective summers (northern hemisphere summer for the tp and northern hemisphere winter for the andes), combining the seven 18o records provides an annually representative proxy 18o) temperature history for high-elevation ice fields in the midto low latitudes, as shown in fig. 6 a this tropical composite is based on seven cores for the last 1,000 yr, six cores for the last 1,550 yr, and four cores for the last 2,000 yr. the andean composite, and thus the tropical composite, shows modest18o enrichment
Define the characterstics of nutrient enrichment
overall the evidence indicates that nutrient enrichment remains the dominant influence on the trophic status of the study lakes and arrows (d) and (e) represent the dominant trajectories expected
Possibilities of Causes of   distentangle fully its relative importance?
but, although it is difficult to distentangle fully its relative importance there is also evidence that climate change may be offsetting some of the recovery expected from a reduction in nutrient loading at some sites
Define the   to be following the trajectory?
if this is indeed the case then algal growth may not be declining simply in line with nutrient loading, but remaining relatively high, tending to follow a deflected trajectory away from the reference (arrows f and g) and towards a new endpoint (c). piburger see appears to be following the trajectory represented by arrow (g). 27 27
overall the evidence indicates that nutrient enrichment remains the dominant influence on the trophic status of the study lakes and arrows (d) and (e) represent the dominant trajectories expected. but, although it is difficult to distentangle fully its relative importance there is also evidence that climate change may be offsetting some of the recovery expected from a reduction in nutrient loading at some sites. if this is indeed the case then algal growth may not be declining simply in line with nutrient loading, but remaining relatively high, tending to follow a deflected trajectory away from the reference (arrows f and g) and towards a new endpoint (c). piburger see appears to be following the trajectory represented by arrow (g). 27 27
How often is data on climate and tourism collected?
the separation of the months into three intervals (weeks are also possible) allows a higher than monthly resolution
What other parameters may be included in the data ?
other parameters like days with frost in the analysis
What is one way to reduce the number of parameters for summer regions?
reduce the number of parameters as, for example, no information on snow conditions is required for summer regions (i.e. mediterranean
conclusions the presented approach for the integration of climate information in tourism has several advantages. the separation of the months into three intervals (weeks are also possible) allows a higher than monthly resolution. the use of frequencies of climate and humanbiometeorological values and variables based on several facets of climate in tourism is an easyly understandable and all-embracing possibility. depending on specific regions or specific tourism uses, it is possible to also include other parameters like days with frost in the analysis; or to reduce the number of parameters as, for example, no information on snow conditions is required for summer regions (i.e. mediterranean). another advantage is that the ctis can be used for tourism all year round, as they use the implementation of several facets of climate and tourism. the separated presentation and implementation of individual factors and facets allows the ctis to provide a detailed description including information on different uses in tourism climatology.
Can shifts in phenology and distribution be driven by the environment rather than biological niches?
shifts in phenology and distribution in response to both recent and paleontological climate changes vary markedly in both direction and extent among species. these individualistic shifts are inconsistent with common forecasting techniques based on environmental rather than biological niches
What biological details could enhance shifts forecasts?
organismal characteristics such as thermal and hydric limits, seasonal timing and duration of the life cycle, ecological breadth and dispersal capacity, and fitness and evolutionary potential are expected to influence climate change impacts
Can phylogenies be used in these shifts forecasts?
we review statistical and mechanistic approaches for incorporating traits in predictive models as well as the potential to use phylogeny as a proxy for traits
shifts in phenology and distribution in response to both recent and paleontological climate changes vary markedly in both direction and extent among species. these individualistic shifts are inconsistent with common forecasting techniques based on environmental rather than biological niches. what biological details could enhance forecasts? organismal characteristics such as thermal and hydric limits, seasonal timing and duration of the life cycle, ecological breadth and dispersal capacity, and fitness and evolutionary potential are expected to influence climate change impacts. we review statistical and mechanistic approaches for incorporating traits in predictive models as well as the potential to use phylogeny as a proxy for traits. traits generally account for a significant but modest fraction of the variation in phenological and range shifts. further assembly of phenotypic and phylogenetic data coupled with the development of mechanistic approaches is essential to improved forecasts of the ecological consequences of climate change.
What did larger magnitude of predicted warm anomalies found suggest?
in fact, a larger magnitude of predicted warm anomalies is found, suggesting that the ocean had a mitigating impact on temperatures during this extreme event
Why were there record hot September conditions over Australia?
analysis using both multiple linear regression based on historical observational data and sensitivity experiments with a dynamical seasonal prediction system indicates that the record hot september conditions over australia arose from the apparently random occurrence of strongly negative sam together with an anomalously deep low pressure cell situated to the southwest of the continent, the background warming trend, and antecedent dry and warm land surface conditions
What role did SSTs play in promoting the record warm anomaly in Australia?
ssts appear to have played little role in promoting the record warm anomaly and, based on the evidence presented, actually acted to mitigate the warming over australia
s41 september 2014 american meteorological society dynamical predictions and that sst boundary forcing contributed little to the promotion of the record maximum temperatures over australia. the latter suggestion is confirmed by rerunning the forecasts using observed atmosphere and land initial conditions but scrambled initial ocean states (fig. 11.2g). in fact, a larger magnitude of predicted warm anomalies is found, suggesting that the ocean had a mitigating impact on temperatures during this extreme event. this is consistent with the weak cooling contribution from tropical sst modes highlighted in the regression analysis. note that the low pressure anomaly to the south of australia is evident in all poama experiments (figs. 11.2b,d,f,h), but with much reduced magnitude compared to observed. the magnitude weakens further when the atmospheric and land initial conditions are scrambled, substantiating the earlier inference of the importance of this mostly unpredictable pressure pattern in the resulting extreme temperatures conclusions. analysis using both multiple linear regression based on historical observational data and sensitivity experiments with a dynamical seasonal prediction system indicates that the record hot september conditions over australia arose from the apparently random occurrence of strongly negative sam together with an anomalously deep low pressure cell situated to the southwest of the continent, the background warming trend, and antecedent dry and warm land surface conditions. ssts appear to have played little role in promoting the record warm anomaly and, based on the evidence presented, actually acted to mitigate the warming over australia. the results from the regression model indicate up to 15% of the record temperature anomaly can be explained by the global temperature changes over the 1982-2013 period analyzed. this warming trend is expressed in the seasonal forecast experiments through the trend in ocean and land initial conditions, the latter of which appeared to be the dominant contributor to the september 2013 predicted anomaly over australia. the sensitivity to the initial land conditions in the poama forecasts is thus consistent with the inference from the regression model concerning the substantial role of the upward trend in global temperatures. to the extent that global temperature changes have been attributed to anthropogenic climate change (bindoff et al. 2014), a multi-step attribution process suggests that anthropogenic climate change played an important role in the record australian maximum temperatures in september 2013.
What are the fastest growing applications of renewable energy in the world today?
heat pump applications geothermal heat pumps (ghps) are one of the fastest growing applications of renewable energy in the world today
Explain the function of a closed loop of plastic pipe in ground-coupled systems.
in ground-coupled systems a closed loop of plastic pipe is placed in the ground, either horizontally at 1-2 m depth or vertically in a borehole down to 50-250 m depth. a water-antifreeze solution is circulated through the pipe. thus heat is collected from the ground in the winter and optionally heat is rejected to the ground in the summer
Explain How does an open loop system use groundwater or lake water as a heat source?
an open loop system uses groundwater or lake water directly as a heat source in a heat exchanger and then discharges it into another well, a stream or lake or even on the ground. in essence heat pumps are nothing more than refrigeration units that can be reversed
heat pump applications geothermal heat pumps (ghps) are one of the fastest growing applications of renewable energy in the world today (rybach, 2005). they represent a rather new but already wellestablished technology, utilising the immense amounts of energy stored in the earth's interior. this form for direct use of geothermal energy is based on the relatively constant ground or groundwater temperature in the range of 4degc to 30degc available anywhere in the world, to provide space heating, cooling and domestic hot water for homes, schools, factories, public buildings and commercial buildings. there exist mainly two types of geothermal heat pumps (figure 11). in ground-coupled systems a closed loop of plastic pipe is placed in the ground, either horizontally at 1-2 m depth or vertically in a borehole down to 50-250 m depth. a water-antifreeze solution is circulated through the pipe. thus heat is collected from the ground in the winter and optionally heat is rejected to the ground in the summer. an open loop system uses groundwater or lake water directly as a heat source in a heat exchanger and then discharges it into another well, a stream or lake or even on the ground. in essence heat pumps are nothing more than refrigeration units that can be reversed. in the heating mode the efficiency is described by the coefficient of performance (cop) which is the heat output divided by the electrical energy input. typically this value lies between three and four (rybach, 2005).
What is the immediate term plan for forestry in Coastal British Columbia?
nterestingly, virtually all gcms predict drier climate for this area, which would imply that a shift in forestry practices towards increased use of lodgepole pine would be a sensible adaptation strategy
What should forestry managers do to best adept an immediate term plan and also plan for changes?
we believe that they are the most realistic basis for developing adaptation strategies, and should be used in combination with gcm projection. managers should prepare for making changes to management based on models, but only implement those adaptation strategies when observed trends on the ground confirm the predictions
What models are you using to map plans for forestry?
we use a simple ecosystem climate envelope model, equivalent to hamann and wang (2006) to model canadian ecozones for the 1997-2006 average and compare them with results from cgcm2-b2 projections
we have previously identified an area of increased summer precipitation in coastal british columbia and recognized it as a cause for an unprecedented dothistroma needle blight epidemic of lodgepole pine in western bc woods et al., 2005 ). interestingly, virtually all gcms predict drier climate for this area, which would imply that a shift in forestry practices towards increased use of lodgepole pine would be a sensible adaptation strategy. this serves as a good illustration that adaptation strategies for local, on-the ground management should not solely be based on gcm projections, which are meant to indicate the future directions of climate change at large, continental scales. while observed trends may or may not continue into the future at the same rate, we believe that they are the most realistic basis for developing adaptation strategies, and should be used in combination with gcm projection. managers should prepare for making changes to management based on models, but only implement those adaptation strategies when observed trends on the ground confirm the predictions. this database, which will be regularly updated, can be used for decision support. secondly, we suggest that the spatial coverages of observed anomalies that we present in this paper may be used for modeling applications in a similar way as gcm projections. for illustration, we use a simple ecosystem climate envelope model, equivalent to hamann and wang (2006) to model canadian ecozones for the 1997-2006 average and compare them with results from cgcm2-b2 projections fig. 5 ). both predict similar expansion of the prairie grassland ecosystems into current boreal forest ecosystems. the area of predicted fig. 5 - mapped ecosystems and modeled ecosystem climate envelope based on baseline climate normals (1961-1990), a recent 10-year average (1997-2006) and projected climate for the 2020s based on the canadian global circulation model (cgcm2-b2).
What are good forecasts of climate change impacts on extinction risks critical for?
effective conservation management responses
What are species distribution models (SDMs) central to?
extinction risk analyses
Why has the reliability of predictions of SDMs been questioned?
because models often lack a mechanistic underpinning and rely on assumptions that are untenable under climate change
good forecasts of climate change impacts on extinction risks are critical for effective conservation management responses. species distribution models (sdms) are central to extinction risk analyses. the reliability of predictions of sdms has been questioned because models often lack a mechanistic underpinning and rely on assumptions that are untenable under climate change. we show how integrating predictions from fundamentally different modeling strategies produces robust forecasts of climate change impacts on habitat and population parameters. we illustrate the principle by applying mechanistic (niche mapper) and correlative (maxent, bioclim) sdms to predict current and future distributions and fertility of an australian gliding possum. the two approaches make congruent, accurate predictions of current distribution and similar, dire predictions about the impact of a warming scenario, supporting previous correlative-only predictions for similar species. we argue that convergent lines of independent evidence provide a robust basis for predicting and managing extinctions risks under climate change.
How is climate change described by farmers?
as the temporal displacement of the weather cycle
What years or rainfall data were examined?
1962-1996
What kind of farmers were studied and where do they reside?
apple farmers in the western himalayas of india
this study examines how apple farmers in the western himalayas of india perceive climatic change. this is done by comparing the locally idealized traditional weather cycle with climate change as perceived by the farmers of the region. we use snowfall and rainfall data from 1962-1996 to measure the accuracy of perceptions. although climate change is usually described by farmers as the temporal displacement of the weather cycle, the changes themselves still are not perceived as altering the idealized weather calendar. most importantly, perception of climate change is structured by knowledge of crop-climate interaction and by differential apple performance outcomes associated with the changed conditions. key words: perceptions * farmer decision-making * traditional weather calendars * apple * himalayas
Where was the rainfall and temperature data collected in the country?
monthly rainfall and temperature data were collected from all the meteorological stations in the country
How was the specific rainfall and temperature values using latitude, longitude and elevation information?
the thin plate spline method of spatial interpolation was used to impute the household specific rainfall and temperature values using latitude, longitude, and elevation information of each household
What is the spline surface represents?
the spline surface represents a thin metal sheet that is constrained not to move at the grid points, which ensures that the generated rainfall and temperature data at the weather stations are exactly the same as data at the weather station sites that were used for the interpolation
monthly rainfall and temperature data were collected from all the meteorological stations in the country. then, the thin plate spline method of spatial interpolation was used to impute the household specific rainfall and temperature values using latitude, longitude, and elevation information of each household. by definition, thin plate spline is a physically based 2d interpolation scheme for arbitrarily spaced tabulated data. the spline surface represents a thin metal sheet that is constrained not to move at the grid points, which ensures that the generated rainfall and temperature data at the weather stations are exactly the same as data at the weather station sites that were used for the interpolation. so, in our case, the rainfall 5 we employed the standard conversion factor in the literature in developing countries where an adult female and children labor are converted into adult male labor equivalent at 0.8 and 0.3 rates, respectively.
Why it is difficult to explain multidecadal variability?
it is difficult to explain the multidecadal variability directly using the latif-barnett mechanism because the latter involves planetary waves in the subtropics and midlatitudes that cross the basin in less than 10 yr
Describe how to identify the origin of the North Pacific multidecadal variability?
to identify the origin of the north pacific multidecadal variability, sensitivity experiments have been performed in two different cgcms, with consistent results (liu et al. 2002; wu et al. 2003; zhong et al. 2008
How long it might take to account for the multidecadal variability?
this time scale, although sufficient for decadal variability, is too short to account for the multidecadal variability
in contrast to the intensive studies on the decadal (10- 20 yr) variability in the pacific, much less attention has been paid to the multidecadal variability (pmv) (over 50 yr) in the north pacific (fig. 2). it is difficult to explain the multidecadal variability directly using the latif-barnett mechanism because the latter involves planetary waves in the subtropics and midlatitudes that cross the basin in less than 10 yr. this time scale, although sufficient for decadal variability, is too short to account for the multidecadal variability. to identify the origin of the north pacific multidecadal variability, sensitivity experiments have been performed in two different cgcms, with consistent results (liu et al. 2002; wu et al. 2003; zhong et al. 2008). here, we only show the results in ccsm3. first, to isolate the key region of ocean-atmosphere feedback,
Why are some comments of the book offered ?
to anticipate how the reader may feel after reading the large parts of this book addressing sgs physics
What is the first possible reason for those who may feel unsatisfied?
first, parameterizations of the ocean sgs are based on partially deductive arguments, and a great number of inspired guesses
What is both formally and phenomenologically, highly nontrivial and incomplete?
describing the subgrid scale, and turbulence in particular
some comments are offered here to anticipate how the reader may feel after reading the large parts of this book addressing sgs physics. for those who may feel unsatisfied, consider three possible reasons. first, parameterizations of the ocean sgs are based on partially deductive arguments, and a great number of inspired guesses. describing the subgrid scale, and turbulence in particular, is highly nontrivial and incomplete, both formally and phenomenologically. there are few general principles and few unambiguous observations. second, as mentioned in many places throughout this book, simulations are dependent on details of the closure schemes. the reader will need to take this point on faith, since no simulations are presented in this book. griffies et al. (2000a) reviews numerous
What is a large source of atmospheric methane?
rice production, especially from flooded rice soils, is a large source of atmospheric methane
Rice production, especially from flooded rice soils, is a large source of atmospheric methane. Therefore rice production is a large contributor to what?
rice production, especially from flooded rice soils, is a large source of atmospheric methane, therefore a large contributor to global warming (fao, 2004a
What is the main way that methane escapes from the rice soil into the atmosphere?
the methane that is produced predominately escapes from the soil into the atmosphere via gas spaces that are found in the rice roots and stems
rice production, especially from flooded rice soils, is a large source of atmospheric methane, therefore a large contributor to global warming (fao, 2004a). according to the ipcc (2007), estimates of the global emission rate from paddy fields (where ch4 is predominant) are 60 tg/year. under anaerobic conditions of submerged soils of flooded rice fields, the methane that is produced predominately escapes from the soil into the atmosphere via gas spaces that are found in the rice roots and stems, and the remainder of the methane bubbles up from the soil and/or disperses slowly through the soil and overlying flood water (figure 3).
What is the motivation for energy efficiency and renewable energy adoption?
in the area of energy efficiency, i expect that the motivation for energy efficiency and renewable energy adoption will primarily be because of the motivation to improve air quality and reduce criteria air pollutants. i employ two different measurements of air quality in this work
What are the two different measurements of air quality?
the first measurement is simply the total state criteria air pollutant emissions per capita in 1990 as a proxy for state air quality in 1990.1second, using the air reporting database on the environmental protection agency's website, and census information regarding county populations
What are the three different policies embedded to climate change policy?
climate change policy is embedded within transportation policies, energy policies, and land use policies
in the federal system, states have the freedom to experiment and implement innovative policies that take advantage of their specific attributes, leading to the internal determinants model of state policy adoption. because climate change policy is embedded within transportation policies, energy policies, and land use policies, i expect that states are motivated to adopt policies in order to address other state problems. in this context, climate change action is a positive externality of action addressing other public bads. in the area of energy efficiency, i expect that the motivation for energy efficiency and renewable energy adoption will primarily be because of the motivation to improve air quality and reduce criteria air pollutants. i employ two different measurements of air quality in this work. the first measurement is simply the total state criteria air pollutant emissions per capita in 1990 as a proxy for state air quality in 1990.1second, using the air reporting database on the environmental protection agency's website, and census information regarding county populations, i calculate the average percentage of a state's population living in a nonattainment area for the six major criteria air pollutants.2
What must be improved for advanced fuels to be a viable solution for many current solid fuel users?
accessibility, a ff ordability, and adaptation of local cooking devices must be improved for advanced fuels to be a viable solution for many current solid fuel users
Over the past decade, solid fuel based cookstove models have improved combustion efficiency and reduced emissions when compared with what?
over the past decade, a variety of solid fuel based cookstove models that improve combustion e ffi ciency and reduce emissions when compared with open fi res and traditional stoves have entered the market
In what ways are advanced fuels such as LPG, ethanol, and biogas better than traditional solid fuels?
advanced fuels such as lpg, ethanol, and biogas are often vastly cleaner, more e ffi cient, safer, and in many cases more appealing to users than traditional solid fuels
advanced fuels such as lpg, ethanol, and biogas are often vastly cleaner, more e ffi cient, safer, and in many cases more appealing to users than traditional solid fuels. however, accessibility, a ff ordability, and adaptation of local cooking devices must be improved for advanced fuels to be a viable solution for many current solid fuel users. fortunately, clean and e ffi cient solid fuel stoves are increasingly available around the world, and if adopted on a wide scale, could yield health, environmental, and economic cobene fi ts. over the past decade, a variety of solid fuel based cookstove models that improve combustion e ffi ciency and reduce emissions when compared with open fi res and traditional stoves have entered the market. however, policy objectives to reduce indoor and outdoor air pollution, mitigate long-term and near-term climate change, reduce deforestation, empower women and girls, and support economic development are driven by di ff erent factors, including fuel use (collected or purchased), and emissions of air pollutants that a ff ect health and climate (table 2). results from recent laboratory and fi eld testing show wide variation in stove performance for these indicators.4 - 9
What variables are/are not included regarding the reduced form equation(2)?
n particular, the lhs does not include the endogenous variables nkjt that are simultaneously determined with nijt through competition on the technology market
What would be the difference between countries and costs?
f technologies of different origins are substitutable and the higher the cost of implementing in countries k [?] i technologies developed in country j the greater the number of technologies imported from country i to country j (since c>0
What would be the benefits of implementing this?
conversely, if the technologies are complementary and a higher implementation cost of the other technologies induces less transfers from country i to country j (c<0
the reduced-form equation (2) solves our simultaneity problem and will thus serve as a basis for our econometric equation. it gives an expression of the flow of inventions between country i and country j as a function of the exogenous variables. in particular, the lhs does not include the endogenous variables nkjt that are simultaneously determined with nijt through competition on the technology market. in fact, the potential for substitution or complementarity between technologies is captured by the variable p ckjt which reflects the cost of implementing technologies from other foreign countries than country j or the cost of using domestic technologies. if technologies of different origins are substitutable and the higher the cost of implementing in countries k [?] i technologies developed in country j the greater the number of technologies imported from country i to country j (since c>0). conversely, if the technologies are complementary and a higher implementation cost of the other technologies induces less transfers from country i to country j (c<0).
Which type of fuel is available in market according to this model?
many solid fuel based cleaner cookstove models available on the market reduce pm2.5 emissions, but some are much more e ff ective than others
What does the laboratory study observed?
 while laboratory studies observed 50% pm2.5 reductions from typical natural draft stoves and over 90% reductions from some forced draft stoves, which employ a fan to increase combustion e ffi ciency,4,15these reductions may be less robust in fi eld settings.16,23 - 26clean stoves used with chimneys can further reduce indoor pm2.5 exposure (e.g., 27
what is the level of air pollution?
while air pollution levels often still exceed the who guidelines even with use of cleaner cookstoves (particularly where background air pollution levels are high due to other emission sources or where widespread household use of traditional stoves persists in the broader community), the large reductions in exposure are likely to achieve signi fi cant health bene fi ts.1,28
many solid fuel based cleaner cookstove models available on the market reduce pm2.5 emissions, but some are much more e ff ective than others. while laboratory studies observed 50% pm2.5 reductions from typical natural draft stoves and over 90% reductions from some forced draft stoves, which employ a fan to increase combustion e ffi ciency,4,15these reductions may be less robust in fi eld settings.16,23 - 26clean stoves used with chimneys can further reduce indoor pm2.5 exposure (e.g., 27). while air pollution levels often still exceed the who guidelines even with use of cleaner cookstoves (particularly where background air pollution levels are high due to other emission sources or where widespread household use of traditional stoves persists in the broader community), the large reductions in exposure are likely to achieve signi fi cant health bene fi ts.1,28
Tell me the differences in the simulations of climate feedback?
differences in simulations of climate feedbacks are sources of significant divergence in climate models' temperature response to anthropogenic forcing. snow albedo feedback is particularly critical for climate change prediction in heavily-populated northern hemisphere land masses. here we show its strength in current models exhibits a factor-of-three spread
What are the three factors of climate feedback?
here we show its strength in current models exhibits a factor-of-three spread. these large intermodel variations in feedback strength in climate change are nearly perfectly correlated with comparably large intermodel variations in feedback strength in the context of the seasonal cycle. moreover, the feedback strength in the real seasonal cycle can be measured and compared to simulated values
Describe the tight relationship between feedback strength simulated in the seasonal cycle and climate change?
these mostly fall outside the range of the observed estimate, suggesting many models have an unrealistic snow albedo feedback in the seasonal cycle context. because of the tight correlation between simulated feedback strength in the seasonal cycle and climate change, eliminating the model errors in the seasonal cycle will lead directly to a reduction in the spread of feedback strength in climate change. though this comparison to observations may put the models in an unduly harsh light because of uncertainties in the observed estimate that are difficult to quantify, our results map out a clear strategy for targeted observation of the seasonal cycle to reduce divergence in simulations of climate sensitivity. citation: hall, a., and x. qu (2006), using the current seasonal cycle to constrain snow albedo feedback in future climate change, geophys. res. lett. 33 l03502, doi:10.1029/2005gl025127
differences in simulations of climate feedbacks are sources of significant divergence in climate models' temperature response to anthropogenic forcing. snow albedo feedback is particularly critical for climate change prediction in heavily-populated northern hemisphere land masses. here we show its strength in current models exhibits a factor-of-three spread. these large intermodel variations in feedback strength in climate change are nearly perfectly correlated with comparably large intermodel variations in feedback strength in the context of the seasonal cycle. moreover, the feedback strength in the real seasonal cycle can be measured and compared to simulated values. these mostly fall outside the range of the observed estimate, suggesting many models have an unrealistic snow albedo feedback in the seasonal cycle context. because of the tight correlation between simulated feedback strength in the seasonal cycle and climate change, eliminating the model errors in the seasonal cycle will lead directly to a reduction in the spread of feedback strength in climate change. though this comparison to observations may put the models in an unduly harsh light because of uncertainties in the observed estimate that are difficult to quantify, our results map out a clear strategy for targeted observation of the seasonal cycle to reduce divergence in simulations of climate sensitivity. citation: hall, a., and x. qu (2006), using the current seasonal cycle to constrain snow albedo feedback in future climate change, geophys. res. lett. 33 l03502, doi:10.1029/2005gl025127.
what is Indigenous knowledge?
indigenous knowledge is already seen as pivotal in fields such as sustainable development, agroforestry, traditional medicine, applied anthropology, biodiversity conservation and natural resource management, and many are expecting this knowledge to play a prominent role in climate science and in facilitating adaptation to climate variability and change
what is important source of climate knowledge and adaptation strategies?
the knowledge of local and indigenous peoples - often referred to as local, indigenous or traditional knowledge - is increasingly recognized as an important source of climate knowledge and adaptation strategies
what are the example of pivotal in fields?
indigenous knowledge is already seen as pivotal in fields such as sustainable development, agroforestry, traditional medicine, applied anthropology, biodiversity conservation and natural resource management
in the face of global climate change and its emerging challenges and unknowns, it is essential that decision-makers base policies and actions on the best available knowledge. the bio-physical and social sciences contribute significantly to the collective understanding of earth systems, social systems and their interactions. however, in recent years there has been a growing awareness that scientific knowledge alone is inadequate for solving the climate crisis (finucane, 2009). in particular, the knowledge of local and indigenous peoples - often referred to as local, indigenous or traditional knowledge - is increasingly recognized as an important source of climate knowledge and adaptation strategies. indigenous knowledge is already seen as pivotal in fields such as sustainable development, agroforestry, traditional medicine, applied anthropology, biodiversity conservation and natural resource management, and many are expecting this knowledge to play a prominent role in climate science and in facilitating adaptation to climate variability and change. this chapter provides an overview of basic definitions and key concepts in the field of local, indigenous and traditional knowledge and its role in climate science and decision-making. it provides brief illustrations of the long history of interaction between scientific and traditional knowledge, and presents a few case studies of how indigenous knowledge has influenced environmental decision-making during recent decades. it suggests that the integration of local, traditional and indigenous knowledge in climate science would result in the mutual enrichment of both knowledge systems, and the reinforcement of on-the-ground solutions.
Which intertidal wetlands will climate change have an enormous influence over?
climate change will have an enormous influence on the intertidal wetlands of the great barrier reef (gbr
What can be said of past climate change?
past climate change has occurred with limited human modification of the coast compared to current levels of development
What has human activity been responsible for?
human activities have resulted in loss of wetlands, disruption to connectivity, enhanced availability of nutrients, changed sediment dynamics and the creation of structures that will prevent landward migration of wetlands with sea level rise (eg roads, berms, bunds and sea walls
climate change will have an enormous influence on the intertidal wetlands of the great barrier reef (gbr). increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide (co2) concentrations and associated increases in air and sea temperatures, rising sea level, changes in oceanic circulation, rainfall patterns and frequency and intensity of storms are highly likely to affect the physiology, ecology and ultimately the stability of wetland habitats (table 9.1). the intertidal position of mangroves, salt marshes and salt flats makes them particularly vulnerable to changes in sea level, although other climate change factors will also exert a strong influence on wetland communities (table 9.1). past rises in sea level have led to increases in the area of mangroves in northern australia186. however, past climate change has occurred with limited human modification of the coast compared to current levels of development. human activities have resulted in loss of wetlands, disruption to connectivity, enhanced availability of nutrients, changed sediment dynamics and the creation of structures that will prevent landward migration of wetlands with sea level rise (eg roads, berms, bunds and sea walls). many of these human impacts will reduce the resilience of intertidal wetlands to climate change. to conserve the intertidal wetlands of the gbr and the ecosystem services they provide, we will need to manage the coastal zone in a way that enhances the resilience of mangroves, salt marshes and salt flats during climate change. table 9.1 predicted effects of climate change factors on mangroves and key references
How many stations considered in the continental and global runoff reconstruction process?
geographical location of the 231 stations considered in the continental and global runoff reconstruction process
Which follows the latitudinal distribution of continents?
spatial repartition of the gauging stations appears homogeneous and globally follows the latitudinal distribution of continents, given that 46 rivers are located in the southern hemisphere and 185 rivers in the northern hemisphere
What is the Surface area of the gauging reference stations ranges?
surface area of the gauging reference stations ranges from 104to 4.5 * 106km2, latitude and longitude position ranges respectively from 40.3 s to 72.37 n and 158.1 w to 184 e
fig. 1. geographical location of the 231 stations considered in the continental and global runoff reconstruction process. spatial repartition of the gauging stations appears homogeneous and globally follows the latitudinal distribution of continents, given that 46 rivers are located in the southern hemisphere and 185 rivers in the northern hemisphere. surface area of the gauging reference stations ranges from 104to 4.5 * 106km2, latitude and longitude position ranges respectively from 40.3 s to 72.37 n and 158.1 w to 184 e. fig. 2. statistical validation of the wavelet-reconstruction of annual discharge fluctuations: latitudinal distribution of the correlation coefficient between measured discharges and wavelet reconstructed discharge series. mean annual correlation coefficients are respectively 0.8 and 0.78 with a maximum of correlation observed at the highest latitudes.
Who had been "fighting like cats and dogs" at the 1992 Earth Summit?
at the earth summit in 1992, greenpeace and the wbscd had been "fighting like cats and dogs
What lies at the heart of corporate paternalism?
yet at the heart of this corporate paternalism lies the stone-cold logic of the free market
What do many social movements and smaller NGOs vehemently oppose?
while mostly northern mainstream ngos support, or do not resist, emissions trading, many social movements and smaller ngos are vehemently opposed to it
climate fraud and carbon colonialism 11 which includes corporations such as dow chemical and general motors, made a joint declaration on climate change, urging governments to move forward. this happened despite the fact that the wbcsd still does not necessarily endorse implementation of the 1997 kyoto protocol, in sharp contrast to the stated aims of greenpeace. at the earth summit in 1992, greenpeace and the wbscd had been "fighting like cats and dogs." ten years later they stood on the same platform, but without a substantial common vision of how governments should move forward. a number of mainstream ngos that have long campaigned for an international agreement on climate change are now persuaded that business support is crucial. part of the reason is technocratic. in the lengthy negotiation process, the talks tend to become extremely technical and the language impenetrable to the point that most people participating do not understand fully the implications of the compromises made. in effect, environmental policy decisions are often left in the hands of "climate experts" in organizations with the knock-on effect that democracy and understanding within ngos suffers and public statements are reduced to simplified slogans. at times, even well-intentioned activists in ngos are persuaded by the win-win scenario rhetoric that accompanies emissions trading. talk of "technology transfer" and "leapfrogging industrialization" is seductive. yet at the heart of this corporate paternalism lies the stone-cold logic of the free market. this has created a situation where the ngo world has been thrown into confusion and discord. while mostly northern mainstream ngos support, or do not resist, emissions trading, many social movements and smaller ngos are vehemently opposed to it. now that ngos have been effectively diverted, corporate interests have been placed at the heart of political negotiations and industry has been defined as a legitimate stakeholder.
What is the estimated total level energy consumption of the MDG energy Vision?
the stockholm environment institute estimated the total level of energy consump tion to meet the mdg energy vision is about 900 terawatt hours
What is the most of the total energy consumption used for?
most of it in the form of energy for cooking
How much would oil demand rise if all traditional use of biomass was replaces by liquid petroleum?
if all traditional use of biomass was replaced with liquid petroleum gas by 2015, oil demand would rise by 0*069% of the projected world demand in the reference scenario, or 0*072% of the alternative policy scenario according to the world energy outlook.12
diff erent studies have quantifi ed the energy needed to meet development goals. the stockholm environment institute estimated the total level of energy consump tion to meet the mdg energy vision is about 900 terawatt hours equivalent of energy, most of it in the form of energy for cooking.66 this is less than 1% of the current global annual energy consumption. another estimate suggested that to provide those whose primary cooking fuel is biomass and all those with no access to electricity with energy for cooking and electricity for light would need just over 1% of the world total primary energy demand in 2004.69 if all traditional use of biomass was replaced with liquid petroleum gas by 2015, oil demand would rise by 0*069% of the projected world demand in the reference scenario, or 0*072% of the alternative policy scenario according to the world energy outlook.12
Describe the origins of higher education?
despite american higher education's origins as a social and economic structure maintained largely by and for the nation's elite, particularly white men, societal shifts during the previous century, such as the g.i. bill, the civil rights movement, the women's movement, and the proliferation of state-funded, open-access universities, threw open the doors of academe to the broad spectrum of the american populace. thus did colleges and universities come to reflect more accurately the diverse makeup of society, and thus in these academic communities, as with the larger society, did diverse groups of people find ways to live together
What is the social situation?
if one accepts the premise that social interactions, the social climate, in america has become harder and more aggressive (despite undeniably positive advances in civil rights, in equality, and yes, even in our general understanding of and appreciation for diversity), it is reasonable to ask if our colleges and universities, which in many ways function as microcosms of society, are experiencing a similar trend in terms of social climate
What are the functions of educational communities?
one salient question might be: what role, if any, does diversity play in the quality of the experience of those engaged in the pursuit of higher education? it is probably a safe assumption that by now, in 2008, most colleges and universities have adopted, at least to some degree, the philosophy that diversity is of inherently positive value to the educational enterprise, including a healthy, vibrant, and collegial campus climate. this philosophy may be illustrated by the inclusion of explicitly stated commitments to encourage and embrace diversity in many institutional mission statements (meecham barrett, 2003). one of the primary missions of higher education institutions is the discovery of and distribution of knowledge. academic communities expend a great deal of effort fostering climates that nurture this mission, with the understanding that climate has a profound effect on the academic community's ability to excel in teaching, research, and scholarship. the climate on college campuses not only affects the creation of knowledge, but also affects members of the
despite american higher education's origins as a social and economic structure maintained largely by and for the nation's elite, particularly white men, societal shifts during the previous century, such as the g.i. bill, the civil rights movement, the women's movement, and the proliferation of state-funded, open-access universities, threw open the doors of academe to the broad spectrum of the american populace. thus did colleges and universities come to reflect more accurately the diverse makeup of society, and thus in these academic communities, as with the larger society, did diverse groups of people find ways to live together. if one accepts the premise that social interactions, the social climate, in america has become harder and more aggressive (despite undeniably positive advances in civil rights, in equality, and yes, even in our general understanding of and appreciation for diversity), it is reasonable to ask if our colleges and universities, which in many ways function as microcosms of society, are experiencing a similar trend in terms of social climate. one salient question might be: what role, if any, does diversity play in the quality of the experience of those engaged in the pursuit of higher education? it is probably a safe assumption that by now, in 2008, most colleges and universities have adopted, at least to some degree, the philosophy that diversity is of inherently positive value to the educational enterprise, including a healthy, vibrant, and collegial campus climate. this philosophy may be illustrated by the inclusion of explicitly stated commitments to encourage and embrace diversity in many institutional mission statements (meecham barrett, 2003). one of the primary missions of higher education institutions is the discovery of and distribution of knowledge. academic communities expend a great deal of effort fostering climates that nurture this mission, with the understanding that climate has a profound effect on the academic community's ability to excel in teaching, research, and scholarship. the climate on college campuses not only affects the creation of knowledge, but also affects members of the
Where will land use play a much more limited role?
in higher latitudes, where the responses of natural ecosystems are more likely to provide positive feedbacks figures 1 and 2 ), land use will play a much more limited role
Would the inclusion of land use in simulations of climate change decrease or increase the projected warming?
it therefore appears that inclusion of land use in simulations of climate change would almost certainly reduce negative feedbacks or increase positive feedbacks and thereby increase the projected warming
few climate models have considered interactions between climate change and land use. as a consequence, the regional and global effects of these interactions are not well quantified. overall, it appears that landuse changes will be greatest in tropical regions where they will likely act to reduce negative feedbacks and/or enhance positive feedbacks. in higher latitudes, where the responses of natural ecosystems are more likely to provide positive feedbacks figures 1 and 2 ), land use will play a much more limited role, or areas formerly used for agriculture or forestry may be reforested. it therefore appears that inclusion of land use in simulations of climate change would almost certainly reduce negative feedbacks or increase positive feedbacks and thereby increase the projected warming.
What has climate change research in Canada related to forestry focused on?
climate change research in canada related to forestry has focused primarily on biophysical impacts, such as growth rates, disturbance regimes and ecosystem dynamics
What do the Canadian studies emphasize?
canadian studies that have examined adaptation to climate change in the forestry sector emphasize the importance of involving forest managers and other stakeholders throughout the research project
In what formats are the study results released?
this includes developing recommendations at the appropriate spatial and temporal scales
to date, climate change research in canada related to forestry has focused primarily on biophysical impacts, such as growth rates, disturbance regimes and ecosystem dynamics. much less attention has been devoted to socio-economic impacts and the ability of forest managers to adapt to climate change. canadian studies that have examined adaptation to climate change in the forestry sector emphasize the importance of involving forest managers and other stakeholders throughout the research project, and ensuring that study results are released in formats that are relevant and useful for forest managers. this includes developing recommendations at the appropriate spatial and temporal scales. research needs identified within the literature cited in this chapter include the following:
What was the name of the 6 regions chosen to exemplify the quality of the posterior distributions of future temperature change derived through our analysis?
n figure 2 six regions (southern australia, the amazons, central america, greenland, western africa and south asia
What color does low climate sensitivity values of the test produce?
ow climate sensitivity in table 1 also produce low values of the test statistic (blue end of the color scale
How many individual GCM projections are shown as circles along the x -axis?
for reference, the 9 individual gcm projections are shown as circles along the x -axis
some results from applying the univariate analysis just described are summarized in figures 2 and 3. in figure 2 six regions (southern australia, the amazons, central america, greenland, western africa and south asia) are chosen to exemplify the quality of the posterior distributions of future temperature change derived through our analysis. for reference, the 9 individual gcm projections are shown as circles along the x -axis. the black curves pertain to the posterior distributions estimated by the region-specific analysis of the univariate model presented above, for winter (djf) projected temperature change, under the a2 scenario. (the red curves, to be discussed later, are based on the corresponding multivariate analysis.) as far as can be assessed, the pdfs are smooth envelopes of most of the individual projections. however, in some of the regions (sau, grl and sas in this example), individual gcm values may behave as outliers, as a result of the statistical assumptions by which the estimate of each gcm's reliability parameter, lj, bears a direct relation to that gcm's degree of agreement with the rest of the ensemble's projections. figure 3 is a graphical representation of the cross-validation exercise, that we perform for all four combinations of seasons and scenarios in our dataset. each of the image plots represents a matrix of uij values, for the 22 regions (along the horizontal dimension) and the 9 models (along the vertical dimension). in general, the models with low climate sensitivity in table 1 also produce low values of the test statistic (blue end of the color scale) which those with high sensitivity produce high values of the test statistic (red end of the color scale), but this effect is not universal, e.g. mri which has the lowest climate sensitivity is not at the blue end of the scale. it is obvious that the uij statistics are not independent from region to region, but the intent of the cross-validation statistics is that within each row, the values of ui 1, ..., ui 9 are approximately independent draws from a uniform distribution on (0,1). in section 6, we consider formal goodness-of-fit statistics. 12
What does the Life-history theory suggest?
life-history theory suggests that organisms maximize fitness by resolving a series of trade-offs (stearns 1992 
Why there is rise in trade-offs?
these trade-offs arise because resources such as time and energy are limited, and an individual cannot allocate resources to one life-history trait without decreasing allocation to other traits that are competing for the same resource (williams 1966 stearns 1989 
Describe the strategies on evolution of life-history?
much research on the evolution of life-history strategies has focussed on the cost of reproduction, where investing in current reproduction is thought to reduce future survival and fecundity (reviews in linde' n and moller 1989 dijkstra et al. 1990 golet et al. 1998 ). less attention has been given to trade-offs occurring at stages of an organism's life cycle other than when they are reproducing, despite the fact that the amount of resources that an individual is able to acquire, and how they are allocated, can vary not only among individuals, but also throughout an individual's lifetime (stearns 1992 
life-history theory suggests that organisms maximize fitness by resolving a series of trade-offs (stearns 1992 ). these trade-offs arise because resources such as time and energy are limited, and an individual cannot allocate resources to one life-history trait without decreasing allocation to other traits that are competing for the same resource (williams 1966 stearns 1989 ). much research on the evolution of life-history strategies has focussed on the cost of reproduction, where investing in current reproduction is thought to reduce future survival and fecundity (reviews in linde' n and moller 1989 dijkstra et al. 1990 golet et al. 1998 ). less attention has been given to trade-offs occurring at stages of an organism's life cycle other than when they are reproducing, despite the fact that the amount of resources that an individual is able to acquire, and how they are allocated, can vary not only among individuals, but also throughout an individual's lifetime (stearns 1992 ). for altricial birds, one of the most energetically costly periods in their life cycle occurs when young are in the nest. while the nestling period is costly for parents because they need to provision offspring (drent and daan 1980 ), the young also face energy limitations
What is described by the NAO?
boreal winter north atlantic climate change since 1950 is well described by a trend in the leading spatial structure of variability, known as the north atlantic oscillation (nao
What do AGCM experiments demonstrate?
through diagnoses of ensembles of atmospheric general circulation model (agcm) experiments, we demonstrate that this climate change is a response to the temporal history of sea surface temperatures (ssts
What changes in tropical rainfall are of greatest relevance?
the changes in tropical rainfall of greatest relevance include increased rainfall over the equatorial indian ocean, a change that has likely occurred in nature and is physically consistent with the observed, significant warming trend of the underlying sea surface
boreal winter north atlantic climate change since 1950 is well described by a trend in the leading spatial structure of variability, known as the north atlantic oscillation (nao). through diagnoses of ensembles of atmospheric general circulation model (agcm) experiments, we demonstrate that this climate change is a response to the temporal history of sea surface temperatures (ssts). specifically, 58 of 67 multi-model ensemble members (87%), forced with observed global ssts since 1950, simulate a positive trend in a winter index of the nao, and the spatial pattern of the multi-model ensemble mean trend agrees with that observed. an ensemble of agcm simulations with only tropical sst forcing further suggests that variations in these ssts are of primary importance. the probability distribution function (pdf) of 50-year nao index trends from the forced simulations are, moreover, appreciably different from the pdf of a control simulation with no interannual sst variability, although chaotic atmospheric variations are shown to yield substantial 50-year trends. our results thus advance the view that the observed linear trend in the winter nao index is a combination of a strong tropically forced signal and an appreciable ''noise'' component of the same phase. the changes in tropical rainfall of greatest relevance include increased rainfall over the equatorial indian ocean, a change that has likely occurred in nature and is physically consistent with the observed, significant warming trend of the underlying sea surface.
What is the problem with the review?
the review should have gone beyond what it did
What opportunity did the review missed?
the review missed the opportunity to try and build a persuasive case for non-substitutability
the stern review: a missed opportunity without doubt, the review has great merit. in fact, judged from the perspective of those calling for drastic and immediate action, the review is probably as good as it currently gets with a cba approach to climate change. there is no reason why the review should not have applied its monetary valuation of benefits and costs in order to demonstrate that social welfare maximization alone calls for decisive and urgent action given certain assumptions about the discount rate, despite the fact that future generations will be much better off in consumption terms than us. it had to do some kind of cba in any case as otherwise it would have lost all credibility among mainstream economists critical toward the review's recommendations. at the same time, however, the review should have gone beyond what it did. the review does many things, but it does not really tackle the issue of non-substitutability. to be 8 fair, there are some hints of it in the review. for example, contrary to some earlier studies it is careful to include some so-called non-market impacts, which include damage to natural capital. however, by expressing these impacts as a percentage of gdp it implicitly assumes that this damage is substitutable. as another example, in the appendix to chapter 2 it briefly discusses the concept of sustainable development and the notion of 'stewardship'. it mentions, under the heading "further complications" (!), that utility might depend on both current consumption and the natural environment. there is also much in the detail and between the lines of the review that points in the right direction. yet, the review missed the opportunity to try and build a persuasive case for non-substitutability. at the end of the day, it was therefore easy for critics to point out that the central message of the review is crucially dependent on the discount rate used, which is really no news.
What have most cases so far focused on?
most cases discussed so far have focussed on the effect of climate change on trends in ecological response variables
What did Beaugrand and others examine?
beaugrand et al. (2008) examined variability in metrics for cod recruitment and plankton community structure, size and diversity in the north atlantic
What did the spatial analysis of these metrics reveal?
spatial analysis of these metrics revealed increased variability coinciding near the mean annual 10 deg c isotherm, potentially indicating an ecological threshold separating different community types
most cases discussed so far have focussed on the effect of climate change on trends in ecological response variables. climate impacts may also be detected through the examination of changes in the variability of ecological responses, including changes in the magnitude, frequency and period of ecological responses. beaugrand et al. (2008) examined variability in metrics for cod recruitment and plankton community structure, size and diversity in the north atlantic. spatial analysis of these metrics revealed increased variability coinciding near the mean annual 10 deg c isotherm, potentially indicating an ecological threshold separating different community types. examination of the temporal variance in the community metrics demonstrated increased community variance in an area as the water warmed and
What needs to be explored with more research?
more research is required to explore how gender affects people's consumption and lifestyles, both in industrialised countries and in newly industrialising countries, and among both the rich and poor
Why is important about the required additional research?
this is important in order to better inform the design of mitigation policies and programmes that are appropriate and effective, such as awareness raising campaigns for the purposes of behaviour change
What will increasing women's participation in decision-making relating to transport help to ensure?
this will help to ensure that existing and future transport systems are better suited to the particular needs of women as well as men
as noted in the section on technology above, more research is required to explore how gender affects people's consumption and lifestyles, both in industrialised countries and in newly industrialising countries, and among both the rich and poor. this is important in order to better inform the design of mitigation policies and programmes that are appropriate and effective, such as awareness raising campaigns for the purposes of behaviour change. meanwhile, practical steps are needed to increase women's participation in decision-making relating to transport. this will help to ensure that existing and future transport systems are better suited to the particular needs of women as well as men. age is another critical dimension that needs to be considered, especially given the pressing challenge posed by growing aging populations in middle and high income countries. greater investment in appropriate public transport is needed, to enhance women's mobility and that of elderly people, while also being more environmentally sustainable.
What does climate change severely affect?
while there is strong evidence that climate change will severely affect poverty reduction and sustainable development, there is only limited experience on how to factor it into poverty reduction strategies, development plans and projects
How does Climate models reduce affect of climate change?
limate models are still getting better and better at reproducing large-scale climate trends, and confidence in their projections for global temperature rise is quite high
What are the uncertainties in Climate models ?
uncertainties remain, in the models themselves and in the drivers (emission scenarios). moreover, climate models have severe limitations when it comes to generating the type of information required in development planning. for such purposes, projections would be needed at a much finer spatial resolution than what the models typically deliver (and for which they can be validated with historical data from weather stations, which tend to be sparse in developing countries
while there is strong evidence that climate change will severely affect poverty reduction and sustainable development, there is only limited experience on how to factor it into poverty reduction strategies, development plans and projects. in fact, for some of the most important variables it is not clear that climate projections are certain and detailed enough to allow a straightforward application in development planning or project preparation. climate models are still getting better and better at reproducing large-scale climate trends, and confidence in their projections for global temperature rise is quite high. however, uncertainties remain, in the models themselves and in the drivers (emission scenarios). moreover, climate models have severe limitations when it comes to generating the type of information required in development planning. for such purposes, projections would be needed at a much finer spatial resolution than what the models typically deliver (and for which they can be validated with historical data from weather stations, which tend to be sparse in developing countries). furthermore, planners require much more than just average temperatures, they would also want to know about precipitation and winds; and rather than just the average values, about variability and extremes. as such requirements become more local, specific and detailed, the uncertainties rise. in many cases, output from climate models is fed into sectoral impact models, which in turn introduce their own
Say scientific and research activities?
in addition to those identified in the emerging issues discussion above, the authors highlight the following potential areas for additional scientific and research activity on waterrelated illness, based on their review of the literature. enhanced understanding of climate change impacts will be facilitated by improved public health surveillance for water-related infectious diseases and expanded monitoring and surveillance of surface and coastal water quality
How do human behaviors affect the risk of waterborne diseases?
in addition, improved understanding of how human behaviors affect the risk of waterborne diseases can facilitate the development of predictive models and effective adaptation measures. predictive models can also help identify major areas of uncertainty and refine key research questions. future assessments can benefit from research activities that * assess the interactions among climate drivers, ecosystem changes, water quality and infectious pathogens, including vibrio spp., n. fowlerii, chemical contaminants, and harmful algal blooms
How do marine and terrestrial wildlife affect the distribution of pathogens and infectious diseases?
increase understanding of how marine and terrestrial wildlife, including waterfowl, contribute to the distribution of pathogens and transmission of infectious disease and assess the role of climate; * explore how ocean acidification affects toxin production and distribution of marine habs and pathogens; * analyze the hydrologic (discharge, flow-residence time, and mixing) thresholds for predicting hab occurrences; and * increase understanding of how the impacts of climate change on drinking water infrastructure, including the need for development of new and emerging technologies for provision of drinking water, affect the risks of waterborne diseases
in addition to those identified in the emerging issues discussion above, the authors highlight the following potential areas for additional scientific and research activity on waterrelated illness, based on their review of the literature. enhanced understanding of climate change impacts will be facilitated by improved public health surveillance for water-related infectious diseases and expanded monitoring and surveillance of surface and coastal water quality. in addition, improved understanding of how human behaviors affect the risk of waterborne diseases can facilitate the development of predictive models and effective adaptation measures. predictive models can also help identify major areas of uncertainty and refine key research questions. future assessments can benefit from research activities that * assess the interactions among climate drivers, ecosystem changes, water quality and infectious pathogens, including vibrio spp., n. fowlerii, chemical contaminants, and harmful algal blooms; * increase understanding of how marine and terrestrial wildlife, including waterfowl, contribute to the distribution of pathogens and transmission of infectious disease and assess the role of climate; * explore how ocean acidification affects toxin production and distribution of marine habs and pathogens; * analyze the hydrologic (discharge, flow-residence time, and mixing) thresholds for predicting hab occurrences; and * increase understanding of how the impacts of climate change on drinking water infrastructure, including the need for development of new and emerging technologies for provision of drinking water, affect the risks of waterborne diseases.
Who should invest in people's capacity?
governments and donors
perhaps most importantly, researchers and practitioners working to enhance the participation of women, girls and boys in decision-making on climate change must work together - sharing learning and strategies, while being sensitive to both gender and age as critical, cross-cutting variables in people's vulnerability to and capacity to manage and respond to risk. in terms of practical action, governments and donors should invest in people's capacity, particularly women and youths, to participate meaningfully in policy-making process through supporting advocacy and leadership training to build skills and confidence. this should be done in partnership with civil society organisations that already have considerable expertise in this area.
Which two main factors is climate change likely to affect?
summary climate change is likely to change the frequency of extreme weather events, such as tropical cyclones, floods, droughts and hurricanes, and may destabilise and weaken the ecosystem services upon which human society depends
List 4 vector-borne diseases that are highly sensitive to climatic conditions
climate change is also expected to affect animal, human and plant health via indirect pathways: it is likely that the geography of infectious diseases and pests will be altered, including the distribution of vector-borne diseases, such as rift valley fever, yellow fever, malaria and dengue, which are highly sensitive to climatic conditions
List some of the crucial measures necessary in combating climate change
strengthening global, regional and national early warning systems is crucial, as are co-ordinated research programmes and subsequent prevention and intervention measures
summary climate change is likely to change the frequency of extreme weather events, such as tropical cyclones, floods, droughts and hurricanes, and may destabilise and weaken the ecosystem services upon which human society depends. climate change is also expected to affect animal, human and plant health via indirect pathways: it is likely that the geography of infectious diseases and pests will be altered, including the distribution of vector-borne diseases, such as rift valley fever, yellow fever, malaria and dengue, which are highly sensitive to climatic conditions. extreme weather events might then create the necessary conditions for rift valley fever to expand its geographical range northwards and cross the mediterranean and arabian seas, with an unexpected impact on the animal and human health of newly affected countries. strengthening global, regional and national early warning systems is crucial, as are co-ordinated research programmes and subsequent prevention and intervention measures. keywords climate change - early warning system - rift valley fever - vector-borne disease.
After splitting the observed data into two halves, what will each of half be used for?
the authors would take the observed data (e.g., temperature), sort them (blue line in the figure) and split the sample into the lower half for calibration (light blue), and the other half for validation (light yellow
Why is the amplitude of the simulated signal only half of the observed data?
because of the under-represented internal climate variability, the amplitude of the simulated signal is only half of the observed data (red line
Why is the chosen approach not able to assess bias nonstationarities?
the chosen approach is not able to assess bias nonstationarities, basically because it cannot discriminate between changes in forcings (which would cause bias nonstationarities) and internal climate variability (which does not cause bias nonstationarities
consider the following example (see figure): assume a gcm/rcm simulation in a stationary climate (i.e., no nonstationarities!) that correctly simulates the mean climate (i.e., no bias of the mean!), but with a biased representation of internal climate variability. in fact, assume that the internal variability is only half as strong as in the real world. the authors would take the observed data (e.g., temperature), sort them (blue line in the figure) and split the sample into the lower half for calibration (light blue), and the other half for validation (light yellow). the same procedure is carried out with the regional climate model (rcm) simulation. because of the under-represented internal climate variability, the amplitude of the simulated signal is only half of the observed data (red line). now in the calibration period, the rcm signal is higher than the observed signal, i.e., the calibration would estimate a positive bias in the mean climate. in the verification period, however, the rcm signal is lower than the observed signal. consequently, the authors would detect a negative bias in the mean climate, i.e., a bias nonstationarity. yet by construction, there is no mean bias at all, and also no nonstationarity! the discrepancy instead arises from a wrong representation of internal variability, i.e., a bias in the second moment of the distribution of the considered variable. to summarise: the chosen approach is not able to assess bias nonstationarities, basically because it cannot discriminate between changes in forcings (which would cause bias nonstationarities) and internal climate variability (which does not cause bias nonstationarities). response thanks for the illustration of the problem. as the referee mentioned above, we did not clearly specify the definition of bias, which "has severe consequences for the design and interpretability of the study". the manuscript will be revised accordingly. in addition, we would like to add a comment of referee #3 at this point:
What is the form of the ammonia present?
in the usual range of ph, near neutrality, the ammonia present is practically in the ionised form
What is the important environmental consequences of free ammonia?
free ammonia is toxic to fish even in low concentrations
How does a liquid temperature of 25 vs 15 degrees C influence the proportion of free ammonia relative to the total ammonia?
at a temperature of 25*c, the proportion of free ammonia relative to the total ammonia is approximately the double compared with a temperature of 15*c
in this way it can be seen that, in the usual range of ph, near neutrality, the ammonia present is practically in the ionised form. this has important environmental consequences, because free ammonia is toxic to fish even in low concentrations. the temperature of the liquid also influences this distribution. at a temperature of 25*c, the proportion of free ammonia relative to the total ammonia is approximately the double compared with a temperature of 15*c. the following equation allows the calculation of the proportion of free ammonia within total ammonia as a function of temperature and ph (emerson et al, 1975): free nh3
What did correlation functions for jack pine show?
correlation functions for jack pine showed that growing season temperatures were positively correlated with their radial growth from south to north, with a seasonal shift from february-april south of 50 1 n to april-august north of 50 1 n (figs 5 and 6
Did Tmin show more significant climate variables than Tmax and T?
tmax and t showed more significant climate variables than tmin
Is it true that precipitation and other growing season parameters, in individual sites, did not exhibit any systematic impacts on the radial growth along the gradient?
precipitation and other growing season parameters generally did not exhibit any systematic impacts on the radial growth along the gradient, except for some individual sites
correlation functions for jack pine showed that growing season temperatures were positively correlated with their radial growth from south to north, with a seasonal shift from february-april south of 50 1 n to april-august north of 50 1 n (figs 5 and 6). tmax and t showed more significant climate variables than tmin. in addition, previous july-september temperature tmin) was found to be more negatively correlated to radial growth of jack pine at 47-50 1 n. in contrast, stands at 46 1 n seemed to be different from others, as suggested by a few significant correlations with climate variables. precipitation and other growing season parameters generally did not exhibit any systematic impacts on the radial growth along the gradient, except for some individual sites.
What's the impact of the research?
there is a need for more research on the impact of school climate on teacher and administrator outcomes
The researches are focused on what?
all of the research presented has focused on the associations between school climate and students ' academic, behavioral, and psychological adjustment
What to do to understand the impact of school climate on student outcomes?
to understand the impact of school climate on student outcomes, we must examine the complex bidirectional interrelations between climate and the interactions between individuals within that climate
there is a need for more research on the impact of school climate on teacher and administrator outcomes. all of the research presented has focused on the associations between school climate and students ' academic, behavioral, and psychological adjustment. however, teachers, principals, and administrators are shaped by the school climate as well, and their patterns of behavior, coping abilities, and emotional well-being may add unique contributions to student outcomes above and beyond those of school climate features. to understand the impact of school climate on student outcomes, we must examine the complex bidirectional interrelations between climate and the interactions between individuals within that climate.
How does poor waste management affect the environment?
poor waste management, ranging from non-existing collection systems to ineffective disposal, causes air, water and soil contamination. open and unsanitary landfills contribute to contamination of drinking water and increase infection and transmit diseases
What is one of the major challenges before the urban areas of all sizes?
managing solid waste is another challenge of urban areas of all sizes, from megacities to the small towns and large villages
How alarming is the disposal of plastic waste  to the oceans?
lastics easily enter rivers and ultimately oceans. jambeck et al. 2015 calculated that 275 million metric tons of plastic waste was generated in 192 coastal countries in 2010. approximately 1.7-4.6 of this plastic enters oceans (jambeck et al. 2015 ). plastic waste does not readily biodegrade but degrades into smaller pieces that affect marine ecosystems (derraik 2002 ). the plastics form 'soups' in five major ocean gyres: two in the pacific
cities generate massive amounts of solid waste. poor waste management, ranging from non-existing collection systems to ineffective disposal, causes air, water and soil contamination. open and unsanitary landfills contribute to contamination of drinking water and increase infection and transmit diseases. managing solid waste is another challenge of urban areas of all sizes, from megacities to the small towns and large villages (un-habitat 2010 ). plastics easily enter rivers and ultimately oceans. jambeck et al. 2015 calculated that 275 million metric tons of plastic waste was generated in 192 coastal countries in 2010. approximately 1.7-4.6 of this plastic enters oceans (jambeck et al. 2015 ). plastic waste does not readily biodegrade but degrades into smaller pieces that affect marine ecosystems (derraik 2002 ). the plastics form 'soups' in five major ocean gyres: two in the pacific, one
What is the timescales  typically associated with climate projections?
over the longer timescales typically associated with climate projections--generally 30 years and longer--variations in climate drivers, such as volcanic aerosol emissions, the amount of solar radiation that the earth receives from the sun and internal variability tend to "average out," to some degree
Between which timescales does the decadal scale sits in between?
the decadal scale sits between the relatively short seasonal-to-interannual timescale where rapid adaptation to extreme weather and climate change impacts is often necessary, and the longer-terms associated with largescale infrastructure projects and government planning
What does the recent paper by Chen and Tung (2014) suggests?
a recent paper by chen and tung (2014) suggests that heat transport into the deep atlantic might also have played a role. in addition to ocean influences, future solar output
over the longer timescales typically associated with climate projections--generally 30 years and longer--variations in climate drivers, such as volcanic aerosol emissions, the amount of solar radiation that the earth receives from the sun and internal variability tend to "average out," to some degree. the same is true of the internal variability of individual climate model runs, because ensembles of these runs are averaged together to form projections. however, this is not the case for shorter periods and there has been much interest as of late, both in the observed difference in surface temperature trends between gcm projections and observations over the last 15-to-20 years, and in decadalscale climate information more generally. the decadal scale sits between the relatively short seasonal-to-interannual timescale where rapid adaptation to extreme weather and climate change impacts is often necessary, and the longer-terms associated with largescale infrastructure projects and government planning. the comparatively short decadal timescale has also received less attention from the climate science community, though the recently established difference between decadal temperature trends in climate models and observations has brought it into the spotlight, as has the development of decadal climate prediction methods. the first article to rigorously quantify the discrepancy in global surface temperature trends between models and observations, is by fyfe, gillett and zwiers (2013), published in nature climate change they find that, while observations and modelled rates of warming over the 19002012 period are very similar, over both the 1998-2012 and 1993-2012 periods the observed rate of warming is significantly less than the trend found in climate model simulations. fyfe and colleagues also consider the effects of el nino, stratospheric aerosols and a potential link to the north atlantic, and find that none of these individually can explain all of the discrepancy. this so-called "hiatus" in surface warming has been the focus of much subsequent research, with kosaka and xie (2013) examining in detail the role that the tropical pacific ocean (where el nino occurs) might have played and finding that, once cooling in that region is accounted for, observations and simulations can be made to match. a recent paper by chen and tung (2014) suggests that heat transport into the deep atlantic might also have played a role. in addition to ocean influences, future solar output
When did Dr. Ines complete his M. Eng. in Irrigation Engineering and Management?
dr. ines completed his m. eng. in irrigation engineering and management in 1998
In 2005, Dr. Ines accepted an Associate Research Scientist position in which department?
in 2005, dr. ines accepted an associate research scientist position in the department of biological and agricultural engineering, texas a&m university
Where was Dr. Ines primarily involved in the development of a climate-based crop forecasting methodology?
at the iri, he was primarily involved in the development of a climate-based crop forecasting methodology
dr. ines completed his m. eng. in irrigation engineering and management in 1998, and dr. eng. in integrated water resources management in 2002, from the school of civil engineering of the asian institute of technology (ait), bangkok, thailand. prior to coming to iri, he worked as a doctoral researcher with the international water management institute at colombo, sri lanka and a senior research associate of the space technology applications and research program, school of advanced technologies at ait. at the iri, he was primarily involved in the development of a climate-based crop forecasting methodology. in 2005, dr. ines accepted an associate research scientist position in the department of biological and agricultural engineering, texas a&m university.
What are the main dynamical differences between the CLM and the CHRM models?
despite using two models with a completely different dynamical core--one being hydrostatic the other non-hydrostatic
What was one of the primary prerequiaite for this study?
a primary prerequisite for this study was to achieve a dynamically meaningful coupling of the climate models with the insurance model, while applying the simplestpossible method
What does the similarity between the CLM and CHRM results ssuggests??
furthermore, the similarity of the clm and chrm results (despite using two models with a completely different dynamical core--one being hydrostatic the other non-hydrostatic) suggests that the uncertainties on the gcmscale dominate for the current application over those on the rcm-scale
in conclusion, it can be argued that although a direct comparison of absolute loss values is difficult, the tendency for the regional impact bears some similarity. more importantly, despite the completely different approaches, a consistent change to the loss distribution is projected under climate change, with increased variability at the upper tail, and an expected reduction of return periods for the countries affected by the shifting storm track. 5.2 caveats and limitations a primary prerequisite for this study was to achieve a dynamically meaningful coupling of the climate models with the insurance model, while applying the simplestpossible method. this is a very pragmatic approach which is likely to be prone to a number of shortcomings. other caveats arise from assumptions and uncertainties associated with each step of the methodology. these limitations are discussed in detail below. in this study a small ensemble of climate model simulations has been used, and it has become evident from our analysis that the application of a multi-model ensemble on all scales considered is vital to obtain an estimate of the model uncertainty and significance of the results. global-to-regional model chains incorporate a number of errors and uncertainties, which together amount to the forecast uncertainty (e.g., ipcc 2001 schwierz et al. 2006 ). in general these include: emission scenario uncertainties (not considered here), uncertainties arising from the chaotic nature of the coupled atmosphere/ocean system, imperfect knowledge of the initial and boundary conditions; and errors in the imperfect numerical representation of dynamical and physical processes. the multi-model ensemble considered in this study is very small, and it is likely that the uncertainties are considerably larger than suggested by the error bars provided. indeed, the driving atmospheric gcms produce rather similar circulation changes over the european continent, and consideration of all available gcms would yield a larger spread. nevertheless, it is worth pointing out that the two gcms considered are among the best when evaluated regarding their ability to represent synoptic-scale circulation types under current climatic conditions (van ulden and van oldenborgh 2006 ). similarly it can be argued that additional rcms should be included in the analysis, in order to better represent the downscaling uncertainties, in particular as we have to rely on parameterizations of wind gusts. here problems arise from uncertainties in the formulations of turbulence and boundary layer processes, as well as from the limited spatial resolution available and the use of a smoothed representation of the surface topography. however, our choice has been objective in the sense that we have used all rcm simulations available that were equipped with an advanced gust parameterization. furthermore, the similarity of the clm and chrm results (despite using two models with a completely different dynamical core--one being hydrostatic the other non-hydrostatic) suggests that the uncertainties on the gcmscale dominate for the current application over those on the rcm-scale. although the performance of our straight-forward selection criterion for eventdays has been critically and successfully tested with reanalysis data, there is potential room for improvement. we focussed on land-points and their selection depends on the accuracy and resolution of the land-sea mask. it would also be interesting to include sea points close to the coastline in a future extension of this model. a more
What is the objective of the innovative spatial planning policies prepared by the London Borough of Sutton?
to ensure future development within sutton is fully adapted to the impacts of climate change
What does this case study focus on?
how spatial planning policies have been developed to address the risk of all forms of flooding to and from new developments, and to promote the role of sustainable urban drainage systems in managing surface water runoff
What is the motivation for planning policies to ensure future development within Sutton is fully adapted to the impacts of climate change?
flooding has already caused significant damage in parts of the borough, and climate change is projected to further increase the frequency and intensity of flood events
the london borough of sutton, a local planning authority located in the south east of england, has prepared a range of innovative spatial planning policies that seek to ensure future development within sutton is fully adapted to the impacts of climate change. whilst impacts such as temperature rise and occurrence of heat waves are also covered by these policies, this case study focuses on how spatial planning policies have been developed to address the risk of all forms of flooding to and from new developments, and to promote the role of sustainable urban drainage systems in managing surface water runoff. flooding has already caused significant damage in parts of the borough, and climate change is projected to further increase the frequency and intensity of flood events. the case of sutton offers valuable lessons on the development of planning policies targeting adaptation to flooding. these include the use of a robust evidence base to develop policy, and the engagement of local stakeholders and residents in the planning process.
What is Tsol-air 2.2 7 K?
tsol-air 2.2 7 k, i.e. the temperature difference due to solar radiation is more than three times as large as that due to air temperature difference
Where do you apply zero thermal mass roof and non zero thermal mass ?
the result for the temperature differences was calculated for a zero thermal mass roof. however, as the daily heat gain shows little dependence on the roof thermal mass of the roof, the factor of increase in heat transfer due to solar radiation should also approximately apply for a roof with non-zero thermal mass
tsol-air 2.2 7 k, i.e. the temperature difference due to solar radiation is more than three times as large as that due to air temperature difference (eq. (5) gives f  4). note the result for the temperature differences was calculated for a zero thermal mass roof. however, as the daily heat gain shows little dependence on the roof thermal mass of the roof, the factor of increase in heat transfer due to solar radiation should also approximately apply for a roof with non-zero thermal mass. similarly, from eq. (7) the average daily rate of heat flow per unit area (flux) for a roof with zero heat capacitance can be expressed as -q 1/4  -q 
What is the climate change affect water resources in United States?
the united states, climate change is expected to affect fresh and marine water resources in ways that will increase people's exposure to water-related contaminants that cause illness
What is the water related illnesses ?
water-related illnesses include waterborne diseases caused by pathogens, such as bacteria, viruses, and protozoa
What is the climate change relate factors?
factors related to climate change--including temperature, precipitation and related runoff, hurricanes, and storm surge-- affect the growth, survival, spread, and virulence or toxicity of agents (causes) of water-related illness
across most of the united states, climate change is expected to affect fresh and marine water resources in ways that will increase people's exposure to water-related contaminants that cause illness. water-related illnesses include waterborne diseases caused by pathogens, such as bacteria, viruses, and protozoa. water-related illnesses are also caused by toxins produced by certain harmful algae and cyanobacteria (also known as blue-green algae) and by chemicals introduced into the environment by human activities. exposure occurs through ingestion, inhalation, or direct contact with contaminated drinking or recreational water and through consumption of fish and shellfish. factors related to climate change--including temperature, precipitation and related runoff, hurricanes, and storm surge-- affect the growth, survival, spread, and virulence or toxicity of agents (causes) of water-related illness. heavy downpours are already on the rise and increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events are projected for all u.s. regions.1 projections of temperature, precipitation, extreme events such as flooding and drought, and other climate factors vary by region of the united states, and thus the extent of climate health impacts will also vary by region.
The researchers' new analysis aims to throw some light on possible links between which two factors?
we undertook some new analysis using recent global datasets to try to throw some light on the possible links between climate variability and food security
What factor does Figure 2 suggest can have substantial effects on agricultural growth?
for economies that are agriculturally based, figure 2 suggests that rainfall variability can have substantial effects on agricultural growth at the national level, although that relationship will be modified by many other factors
What did the researchers use to estimate total kilocalorie production from crops?
to estimate total kilocalorie production from crops, we used data on crop yields and harvested areas from the spatial production allocation model (spam) of you et al. (2012
as noted above, there is only limited information on the potential impacts of climate variability on food availability at broad scales such as national and regional. for economies that are agriculturally based, figure 2 suggests that rainfall variability can have substantial effects on agricultural growth at the national level, although that relationship will be modified by many other factors. links from climate variability to poverty indicators are also not that straightforward to demonstrate. we undertook some new analysis using recent global datasets to try to throw some light on the possible links between climate variability and food security. herrero et al. (2013) recently generated maps showing global kilocalorie production per capita from edible animal products, including milk and meat from ruminant species (bovines, sheep and goats) and meat and eggs from monogastric species (pigs and poultry). to estimate total kilocalorie production from crops, we used data on crop yields and harvested areas from the spatial production allocation model (spam) of you et al. (2012). spam contains data for the year 2000, and includes 14 food crops or crop groups: banana and plantain, barley, beans, cassava, groundnut, maize, millet, other pulses such as chickpea, cowpeas, pigeon peas, and lentils), potato, rice, sorghum, soybean, sweet potato and yam, and wheat. we calculated the total food production from these 14 crops and crop groups using calorie contents as given in fao (2001). the spam dataset matches faostat country
Who are the current members?
prof. ed sarachik (chair) university of washington, department of atmospheric sciences, seattle, usa prof. mark cane columbia university, department of earth and environmental sciences and lamont-doherty earth observatory, newyork, usa dr. sulochana gadgil indian institute of science, centre for atmospheric science, bangalore, india prof. graeme hammer the university of queensland, school of land and food sciences, brisbane,australia prof. james w. jones, university of florida,agricultural and biological engineering, gainesville, usa mr. james laver climate prediction center/ncep/nws/noaa, camp springs, usa dr. tim palmer european centre for medium-range weather forecasts, reading, uk dr. yeya toure world health organization, special programme for research and training in tropical diseases, geneva, switzerland
Who is the member from India?
dr. sulochana gadgil indian institute of science, centre for atmospheric science, bangalore, india
current members include: prof. ed sarachik (chair) university of washington, department of atmospheric sciences, seattle, usa prof. mark cane columbia university, department of earth and environmental sciences and lamont-doherty earth observatory, newyork, usa dr. sulochana gadgil indian institute of science, centre for atmospheric science, bangalore, india prof. graeme hammer the university of queensland, school of land and food sciences, brisbane,australia prof. james w. jones, university of florida,agricultural and biological engineering, gainesville, usa mr. james laver climate prediction center/ncep/nws/noaa, camp springs, usa dr. tim palmer european centre for medium-range weather forecasts, reading, uk dr. yeya toure world health organization, special programme for research and training in tropical diseases, geneva, switzerland
where was the second study conducted?
the second study was conducted in a large, public sector organization. again, employees operated as part of the state public sector
What changes was the organization going through?
the organization had undergone significant change and restructuring, including a demerger with another state government organization that they had merged with some 3 years previously
background. the second study was conducted in a large, public sector organization. again, employees operated as part of the state public sector. the organization had undergone significant change and restructuring, including a demerger with another state government organization that they had merged with some 3 years previously. many staff had changed locations and roles and were being asked to reidentify with their previous organizational structure and culture. the research took place as the final stages of the change program were being implemented. this provides a contrast with the stage of change investigated in study 1, where changes were being planned and introduced. when the survey was conducted, nearly all of the restructuring was complete, and the other parts of the department were now reestablished in a new department in a separate building. the challenges being dealt with at the time of the survey were still considerable, including a change in funding that impacted upon services, a new ceo with a clear change agenda, and within this a redefinition and debate about the core mission and strategy of the enterprise. staff communication and 272 martin, jones, callan
What do your probability statements about future climate represent?
the purpose of the questions is to illuminate the degree to which climate scientists have objectively quantified their uncertainty, and so to assess the value of their probabilistic predictions as a guide to future climate. 21 0
Why should we believe that your probability is a better guide to the future than someone else's?
a good guide to the second part of this question should be found in the answers to the following. 1. measurements
Do you have exact observations on historical and current climate data?
the purpose of the questions is to illuminate the degree to which climate scientists have objectively quantified their uncertainty, and so to assess the value of their probabilistic predictions as a guide to future climate. 21 0
instead of a standard summary, i offer here a selection of questions for policymakers to ask climate scientists, and for climate scientists to ask each other. the purpose of the questions is to illuminate the degree to which climate scientists have objectively quantified their uncertainty, and so to assess the value of their probabilistic predictions as a guide to future climate. 21 0. probability. what do your probability statements about future climate represent? why should we believe that your probability is a better guide to the future than someone else's? a good guide to the second part of this question should be found in the answers to the following. 1. measurements. do you have exact observations on historical and current climate data? if not, how have you quantified the measurement errors? (sein our treatment.) 2. the 'best' model-input. how have you related your climate model to the climate itself: are you adopting the 'best' model-input approach? (if not, see below.) if so, do you judge that extreme values of the 'best' input are as likely as central values? (pr( x*) in our treatment.) 3. model imperfections. do you believe that if you knew the 'best' modelinput x*, then the model-output g x*) would exactly replicate climate itself? if not, how have you quantified the model's imperfections? (se
Explain transmission pattern?
climate change is likely to affect the transmission patterns of vector-borne pathogens, but more research is needed to clarify the interactions of weather variables and the diseases they affect
Explain dengu incident?
the differential dengue incidence rates at the u.s.-mexico border illustrate deficiencies in knowledge regarding the specific socioeconomic determinants of disease and its prevention
weather and climate are important parameters in the epidemiology of vector-borne diseases. the effects of such variables as temperature and rainfall are very complex, influencing the vector and its interaction with both habitat and vertebrate hosts, all of which determine whether a disease pathogen will be present and, if so, whether transmission will be endemic or epidemic (figure 3). without well-designed research to understand these interactions, accurate projections of the potential effects of climate change on disease will remain elusive. climate change is likely to affect the transmission patterns of vector-borne pathogens, but more research is needed to clarify the interactions of weather variables and the diseases they affect. there is a need for information on how zoonoses persist in nature and what triggers their amplification and initiation of secondary cycles that increase the risk of human infection. some diseases may increase but others may decrease. how these pathogens persist and what triggers amplification must be understood before the role of weather and longterm climate trends can be fully determined. there has been an increase in the number of imported cases of dengue and malaria in the united states since the 1980s, as well as increased local transmission 1,50 ). the differential dengue incidence rates at the u.s.-mexico border illustrate deficiencies in knowledge regarding the specific socioeconomic determinants of disease and its prevention.
What has changed in climate science over the years?
climate science has advanced over decades from an initial focus on the development and use of numerical models of earth ' s climate and compilation of rich networks of observational data, to now being in a position to " detect " and " attribute " specific impacts and events to anthropogenic climate change
What were the impacts made by men on climate change?
recent analyses have thus established the " fingerprint " of anthropogenic climate change in an increasingly diverse array of meteorological and hydrological phenomena around the world, from heat waves to coastal damages during extreme tides and storms, flooding from more intense precipitation events, and severe drought (1
Are there any studies to back up these claims?
in a new study published in pnas, diffenbaugh et al. now add weight to the accumulating evidence that anthropogenic climatic changes are already influencing the frequency, magnitude, and duration of drought in california (2). the authors show that the increasing cooccurrence of dry years with warm years raises the risk of drought despite limited evidence of a trend in precipitation itself, highlighting the critical role of elevated temperatures in altering water availability and increasing overall drought intensity and impact
climate science has advanced over decades from an initial focus on the development and use of numerical models of earth ' s climate and compilation of rich networks of observational data, to now being in a position to " detect " and " attribute " specific impacts and events to anthropogenic climate change. recent analyses have thus established the " fingerprint " of anthropogenic climate change in an increasingly diverse array of meteorological and hydrological phenomena around the world, from heat waves to coastal damages during extreme tides and storms, flooding from more intense precipitation events, and severe drought (1). in a new study published in pnas, diffenbaugh et al. now add weight to the accumulating evidence that anthropogenic climatic changes are already influencing the frequency, magnitude, and duration of drought in california (2). the authors show that the increasing cooccurrence of dry years with warm years raises the risk of drought despite limited evidence of a trend in precipitation itself, highlighting the critical role of elevated temperatures in altering water availability and increasing overall drought intensity and impact.
HOw Adaptation options differ?
adaptation options differ by ecosystem, landscape, and the socioeconomic environment in which landscapes are embedded
Why no single approach will work in all ecosystems?
no single approach will work in all ecosystems, and no single approach will work repeatedly over time in a changing climate
What are guidebook offers ?
this guidebook offers a number of tools, often developed in the context of workshops, such as the adaptation options for roads and water, wildlife, fish, and vegetation on olympic national forest. many others exist and, no doubt, more will be developed in time. the guidebook offers examples of collaboration where federally managed land encompasses large landscapes
adaptation options differ by ecosystem, landscape, and the socioeconomic environment in which landscapes are embedded. no single approach will work in all ecosystems, and no single approach will work repeatedly over time in a changing climate. rather, managers will need a portfolio of options, or a toolkit, from which a variety of tools and experiences can be used to match the current need. we define tools as resource management practices, educational and reference modules, decision-support aids, and qualitative or quantitative models that address the adaptation of natural and cultural resources to climate change. this guidebook offers a number of tools, often developed in the context of workshops, such as the adaptation options for roads and water, wildlife, fish, and vegetation on olympic national forest. many others exist and, no doubt, more will be developed in time. the guidebook offers examples of collaboration where federally managed land encompasses large landscapes. similarity of ecosystem services across agencies provides an opportunity to share adaptation options for common issues. increased collaboration can facilitate accomplishing common goals that can be attained only on larger connected (or contiguous) landscapes. common goals under climate change might include protection of threatened and endangered species habitats, maintenance of land and water productivity, integrated treatment of fuels or insect and disease conditions that place adjacent ownerships at risk, and developing effec tive strategies to minimize loss of life and property in the wildland-urban interface. attempting to collaborate multi-institutionally across large landscapes can bring into focus opportunities, as well as institutional barriers and societal responses. what might adaptation to climate change look like in the future for the forest service? we present this optimistic vision: * climate change considerations will be incorporated into on-the-ground activities, project planning, and forest plans as seamlessly as other consid erations commonly addressed now, such as fire, insects, and human drivers of change. * monitoring activities will include indicators that detect change in specific species and ecosystems in relation to changing climate. periodic summaries of this information become the basis on which to evaluate the need for man agement adjustments or to amend the land management plan. * assessments of how future ecosystem services will be affected by the many natural and human drivers of change including climate change will be periodically developed as a joint effort of science and management for large landscapes.
What is the criterion of detention time based on?
the criterion of the detention time is based on the time necessary for the reproduction of the anaerobic bacteria
What varies the volumetric loading rate of anaerobic ponds?
the volumetric loading rate lv, the main design parameter for anaerobic ponds, is a function of the temperature
Why is the consideration of volumetric load important?
the consideration of the volumetric load is important, because industrial wastewaters can vary widely in the relationship between flow and bod concentration (load flow x concentration). therefore, only the detention time criterion is insufficient
geometry (length breadth ratio) the criterion of the volumetric organic loading rate is the most important, and is established as a function of the need of a certain pond volume for the conversion of the applied bod load. the criterion of the detention time is based on the time necessary for the reproduction of the anaerobic bacteria. a) volumetric organic loading rate the volumetric loading rate lv, the main design parameter for anaerobic ponds, is a function of the temperature. warmer locations allow a larger loading rate (smaller pond volume). the consideration of the volumetric load is important, because industrial wastewaters can vary widely in the relationship between flow and bod concentration (load flow x concentration). therefore, only the detention time criterion is insufficient. system of anaerobic ponds followed by facultative ponds 543
Research into the technical feasibility and safety of geoengineering is poised to What?
begin
The deliberative techniques that have been trialled in research on what?
nanotechnology offer potential opportunities for meaningful public engagement
upstream deliberative methods can play a critical role in allowing a what?
broader range of voices to be heard and in extending the dialogue between experts and society
research into the technical feasibility and safety of geoengineering is poised to begin, with guarded interest from research funders, governments, and academic bodies in the united states and europe. we have argued that it is essential that a program of social research and reflection be initiated as well, prior to the physical program. the deliberative techniques that have been trialled in research on nanotechnology offer potential opportunities for meaningful public engagement.54 even under conditions of high uncertainty that characterize emerging technologies such as geoengineering (something the philosophers jerry ravetz and silvio funtowicz have termed post-normal science ),55 upstream deliberative methods can play a critical role in allowing a broader range of voices to be heard and in extending the dialogue between experts and society.
What are the constant practices of an inclusive leader?
they lead by deliberation and transparency; people feel empowered to use information when serving under such leaders, and the leaders themselves provide adequate training and outreach opportunities as well as sufficient professional reward and development opportunities for their own staff
What would a practical example of this type of leadership look like?
for example, a clear consensus emerged from a national science foundation (nsf)-sponsored workshop to research the risas held at the east-west center in honolulu in 2005 that subgroup leaders responsible for research and integrated assessment are key to achieving balance between research on new subjects and assessment/compilation of existing knowledge as well as establishing overall research priorities (mcnie et al. 2007
effective knowledge networks are led by inclusive leaders who incorporate the knowledge, skills, resources, and perspectives of their organizations and the groups and other entities they serve. often these leaders are ''change agents'' who have a guiding vision that sustains them through difficult times, a passion for their work and an inherent belief in its importance, and a basic integrity toward the way in which they interact with people and approach their jobs. they lead by deliberation and transparency; people feel empowered to use information when serving under such leaders, and the leaders themselves provide adequate training and outreach opportunities as well as sufficient professional reward and development opportunities for their own staff. for example, a clear consensus emerged from a national science foundation (nsf)-sponsored workshop to research the risas held at the east-west center in honolulu in 2005 that subgroup leaders responsible for research and integrated assessment are key to achieving balance between research on new subjects and assessment/compilation of existing knowledge as well as establishing overall research priorities (mcnie et al. 2007).
Name the top four recipient countries.
the top four recipients were bangladesh, the philippines, brazil, and thailand
Which activities were funded the most ?
most funding was directed to activities related to agriculture, forestry, land use and livestock management, and renewable energy
Who is the biggest supporter of renewable energy and energy efficiency projects?
the ctf is the biggest supporter of renewable energy and energy efficiency projects
top recipient regions of climate fund money in 2012 were south asia, east asia and the pacific, and latin america. the top four recipients were bangladesh, the philippines, brazil, and thailand. most funding was directed to activities related to agriculture, forestry, land use and livestock management, and renewable energy. lesser but still significant amounts were directed to disaster risk management, transport, energy efficiency and, through the multilateral fund under the montreal protocol, to industrial process emissions. almost all funds direct significant sums to the agriculture, forestry, land use and livestock management sectors, in particular the amazon fund, ppcr and the adaptation fund. meanwhile the ctf is the biggest supporter of renewable energy and energy efficiency projects. climate funds delivered finance to projects mainly in the form of grants (66%), low-cost debt (33%) and equity (less than 1%). market-rate debt instruments were not
What one should consider when contemplating structural adaptations?
in contemplating structural adaptations, one should consider whether the system will be capable of dealing with the projected hydrological changes, as well as the economic, social and ecological costs of the adaptation
What has traditionally served as one of the most important adaptations for water management in Canada?
physical infrastructure, such as dams, weirs and drainage canals, has traditionally served as one of the most important adaptations for water management in canada
What many experts advocate on the potential of building new structures for climate change adaptation?
many experts advocate avoiding or postponing the construction of large-scale infrastructure until there is greater certainty regarding the magnitude of expected hydrological changes
in contemplating structural adaptations, one should consider whether the system will be capable of dealing with the projected hydrological changes, as well as the economic, social and ecological costs of the adaptation. physical infrastructure, such as dams, weirs and drainage canals, has traditionally served as one of the most important adaptations for water management in canada. there are conflicting opinions, however, on the potential of building new structures for climate change adaptation. given the substantive environmental, economic and social costs associated with these structures, many experts advocate avoiding or postponing the construction of large-scale infrastructure until there is greater certainty regarding the magnitude of expected hydrological changes. on the other side of the coin is the fact that water infrastructure improves the flexibility of management operations, and increases a system's capacity to buffer the effects of hydrological variability.(5)in the peace river, for example, stream regulation will allow operators to potentially offset the effects of climate change on freeze-up dates by reducing winter releases.(44)similarly, communities in the southern prairies can use small-scale water infrastructure to increase water storage through snow management, and reduce regional vulnerability to drought.(45)
With consideration given to conditions 9, 10 and 11, which Annex B countries have an incentive to free-ride on the linked agreement, both in the short and in the medium run?
no annex b country has an incentive to free-ride on the linked agreement
What values does Table 7 provide?
values of b for which the profitability and stability conditions are met
What profitability condition was met?
b >= 0.66
given that the profitability condition is met for b >= 0.66, it is important to explore the stability of the linked agreement only for values of b >= 0.66. table 6 actually shows that the us has no incentive to free-ride on the coalition which cooperates on both climate and r&d when free-riding on either climate or r&d (or both) implies the loss of the benefits arising from technological cooperation. a similar conclusion holds for the other annex b countries. by evaluating conditions (9), (10) and (11), we conclude that no annex b country has an incentive to free-ride on the linked agreement for values of b >= 0.66 (both in the short and in the medium run). our empirical analysis is summarised by table 7, which shows for which values of b the profitability and stability conditions are met. 21 table 7. values of b for which the profitability and stability conditions are met.
What are the potential health impacts?
the potential health impacts of ozone related climate change at a locally relevant regional scale, the county, for two highly populated regions of washington state; king and spokane counties
What are the ozone concentrations for Western Washinton region?
the relative change in ozone related mortality is predicted to be greater in king county, due to a larger relative change (increase) in predicted ozone concentrations for this western washington region in mid-century
Name the  two highly populated regions of Washington State
king and spokane counties
we assessed the potential health impacts of ozone related climate change at a locally relevant regional scale, the county, for two highly populated regions of washington state; king and spokane counties. given the assumptions of our models, increases in projected ozone concentrations will increase the mortality rate due to this pollutant in both areas. the higher ozone concentrations and underlying mortality rates observed in spokane county yield higher current and future decade mortality rates due to ozone in this eastern washington setting. however, the relative change in ozone related mortality is predicted to be greater in king county, due to a larger relative change (increase) in predicted ozone concentrations for this western washington region in mid-century.
What is climate strength?
climate strength is the degree of within-unit agreement of employees' climate perceptions
What is the purpose of the study?
the purpose of our study is to determine whether the relationship between team climate (that is, team perceptions shared by team members) and three criteria (team performance as assessed by team members and team managers, and financial team outcomes) is moderated by climate strength
Is it important to study climatic strength?
from a theoretical perspective, these kinds of studies are important because they contribute to ascertaining the boundary conditions under which the relationship between team
climate is a classic area of research in organizational psychology whose roots can be found in the study by lewin, lippitt and white (1939) on social climates. nowadays, a recent topic in climate research that is beginning to catch the attention of scholars is climate strength climate strength is the degree of within-unit agreement of employees' climate perceptions. research on climate strength is contributing to improving our understanding of the relationship between organizational units' climates and their outcomes. however, research on climate strength is still scarce, and new studies on the topic are needed (dawson, gonza'lez-roma', davis west, 2008; james et al. 2008; schneider, salvaggio, subirats, 2002). the purpose of our study is to determine whether the relationship between team climate (that is, team perceptions shared by team members) and three criteria (team performance as assessed by team members and team managers, and financial team outcomes) is moderated by climate strength. from a theoretical perspective, these kinds of studies are important because they contribute to ascertaining the boundary conditions under which the relationship between team
what mineral can be a minor explanatory variable at some sites?
phosphorus
there is often good agreement between monitored and DI-TP values during what phase?
the eutrophication phase
what are the secondary environmental gradients mentioned in the passage?
conductivity or alkalinity
however, these site-specific explanations for the poor performance of weighted averaging-based di-tp ignores the growing evidence for more generic problems with transfer functions (cf.anderson, 2000) in situations where secondary environmental gradients, such as conductivity or alkalinity need to be accommodated. phosphorus can be a minor explanatory variable at some sites (e.g., hall smol, 1992) and/or for certain periods in lake history. in lowland lakes, for example the increased availability of phosphorus in the aquatic environment, especially after 1950, has tended to mask the influence of these secondary gradients and consequently there is often good agreement between monitored and di-tp values during the eutrophication phase as shown by some of the sites in this study (fig. 2) and by bennion et al. (1995) and bradshaw et al. (2001). however, prior to the intensive use of commercial fertilizers and phosphate detergents, i.e. during the late-19th early 20th century, there are few or no direct measurements of tp for comparison but di-tp values are often higher than can be realistically accepted from land-use histories and p-loading models (cf anderson 1997). these over-estimates result from the inability of transfer functions to deal with dual gradients. di-tp models applied prior to 1950 may be reconstructing changes in diatom assemblages driven by other variables, such as conductivity or doc, instead of, or as well as, nutrient concentration.
What does the large and instantaneous dilution provided at the entrance in the reactor causes?
the good performance of the complete-mix reactor
Why in the first reactor of a system with cells in series or at the head of a plug-flow reactor the toxic concentrations can be very high ?
due to the lower volumes involved
toxic substances instantaneously added as spikes the peak in the effluent from the complete-mix reactor is the smallest, opposed to the plug-flow reactor, which presents the highest peak in the effluent. the good performance of the complete-mix reactor is caused by the large and instantaneous dilution provided at the entrance in the reactor. additionally, the greater volume required for the single-cell complete-mix reactor contributes to the smoothing of the shock load. in the first reactor of a system with cells in series or at the head of a plug-flow reactor the toxic concentrations can be very high, due to the lower volumes involved.
Are wild species responding to climate change?
wild species have responded to climate change
How do political border interfere with human migration?
however, political borders can interfere with human migration, and indigenous ways of life already have been adversely affected impacts are apparent in the arctic, with melting tundra, reduced sea ice, and increased shoreline erosion
What group of people are effected by shifting climate zones?
effects of shifting climate zones also may be important for indigenous americans who possess specific designated land areas, as well as other cultures with long-standing traditions in south america, africa, asia and australia
despite large year-to-year variability of temperature, decadal averages reveal isotherms (lines of a given average temperature) moving poleward at a typical rate of the order of 100 km/decade in the past three decades [101], although the range shifts for specific species follow more complex patterns [102]. this rapid shifting of climate zones far exceeds natural rates of change. movement has been in the same direction (poleward, and upward in elevation) since about 1975. wild species have responded to climate change, with three-quarters of marine species shifting their ranges poleward as much as 1000 km [44,103] and more than half of terrestrial species shifting ranges poleward as much as 600 km and upward as much as 400 m [104]. humans may adapt to shifting climate zones better than many species. however, political borders can interfere with human migration, and indigenous ways of life already have been adversely affected impacts are apparent in the arctic, with melting tundra, reduced sea ice, and increased shoreline erosion. effects of shifting climate zones also may be important for indigenous americans who possess specific designated land areas, as well as other cultures with long-standing traditions in south america, africa, asia and australia.
What are bioclimatifc envelope models?
bioclimatic envelope models are powerful tools to envisage potential responses in species distribution to climate change from regional to global scales [82,90
What data is being used for projections of future climates?
our projections of future climatic suitability refer to data of the european regional climate model cclm, which is nested into the well-established global climate model echam5 in comparison to their driving global models, regional patterns of climate change are projected more precisely, which enhances the quality of climate impact studies
What role do insects have in the changing climate?
the consideration of the dispersal capacity of insects in a changing climate improves the quality of projections of species distribution
bioclimatic envelope models are powerful tools to envisage potential responses in species distribution to climate change from regional to global scales [82,90]. they can be seen as a useful first filter for approximations of the impact of climate change on the species distribution [82,91]. a well-adapted modelling approach is required to project climate change effects on species therefore, we selected maxent as algorithm, due to better performances in comparison with further presence-only and (pseudo-) presence-only algorithms (see chapter model runs for details). results yielded in high model quality criteria, emphasised by threshold-dependent and independent criteria for phlebotomus spp in order to cope with the general uncertainty in species distribution modelling regarding the climatic evolvement we projected the climatic suitability based on two ipcc scenarios (a1b and b1) that best illustrate the respective storyline. we choose bioclimatic variables that are considered to be biologically meaningful variables for model input. our projections of future climatic suitability refer to data of the european regional climate model cclm, which is nested into the well-established global climate model echam5 in comparison to their driving global models, regional patterns of climate change are projected more precisely, which enhances the quality of climate impact studies for instance, global climate models fail particularly in replication of observed wind speeds. obviously, projections of changes in wind speed profit from downscaling to the regional level furthermore, potential regions with non-analogue climatic conditions and where hence projections are inappropriate were excluded via mess-analysis. evidently, the consideration of the dispersal capacity of insects in a changing climate improves the quality of projections of species distribution hence, we combined projected climatic suitability in the 21stcentury with dispersal ability for five phlebotomus spp we practiced least-cost analysis for future movement patterns by including temporarily stable (elevation, landscape features) and variable factors (wind speed and development of climatic suitability). this allows integrating and combining expert knowledge on sandfly ecology and biology with statistical methods. in doing so, potential species-specific dispersal pathways can be pointed out. this offers the opportunity to distinguish between climatically suitable habitats that can be reached by invasive species and those that are not accessible to them. the proposed method for the detection of dispersal pathways can be applied to other invasive and mobile disease vectors in the face of climate change. for this purpose, however, species-specific cost surfaces have to be generated. the alps, for instance, may not
How the results were analysed?
the results were analysed by computing the efficiency on a daily basis for three water flow gauges, and in computing the efficiency for the monthly prediction of nitrate and orthophosphorus losses for the 1987-1990 period
How efficiency was computed?
the efficiency was computed on a monthly basis for the nitrate and orthophosphorus losses because only limited information on management practices was available for each land use type
Define the coefficients of efficiency for the water flow?
the coefficients of efficiency for the water flow prediction are 0.77, 0.45, and 0.39 for the general outlet, for kilgram bridge (ure), and the swale climate change impacts on nutrient loads in the yorkshire ouse catchment (uk) 201 at crakehill outlets, respectively
the results were analysed by computing the efficiency on a daily basis for three water flow gauges, and in computing the efficiency for the monthly prediction of nitrate and orthophosphorus losses for the 1987-1990 period. the efficiency was computed on a monthly basis for the nitrate and orthophosphorus losses because only limited information on management practices was available for each land use type. the results for the daily prediction of water flow are presented in figs. 2 and 3. the coefficients of efficiency for the water flow prediction are 0.77, 0.45, and 0.39 for the general outlet, for kilgram bridge (ure), and the swale climate change impacts on nutrient loads in the yorkshire ouse catchment (uk) 201 at crakehill outlets, respectively. the major source of error in the prediction is linked to the spatial distribution of rainfall: swat being a semi-distributed model (sub-basins are the smallest units with geographic location), only one rainfall station can be associated to one sub-basin. this can alter flow prediction for areas that are characterised by a rainfall gradient, such as for the swale sub-basin where the rainfall varies between 1400 and 600 mm yr-1. the overall simulation could have been improved by discretising the catchment into a larger number of sub-basins. however, it was preferred to discretise the catchment so that each subbasin outlet corresponds to an actual gauging flow station. the coefficient of efficiency is higher for the general outlet because the errors due to the rainfall spatial distribution balance out for the whole catchment. the model reproduced the peak runoff accurately but tended to over-predict the low flows during the summer months for the whole catchment (table 1). the problem with the low flow prediction might be linked to the over-simplified groundwater component of swat. as explained earlier, for each sub-basin, the base-flow originates from the shallow aquifer. this is represented as a reservoir recharged by deep percolation and transmission losses, which empties into the river based on a recession coefficient independent of the gradient existing between the water table and the water level
Define types of vegetation?
we only considered four vegetation types (deciduous broadleaf forest, desert vegetation, grassland and meadows), which have more than ten meteorological stations
Evaluate averaging NDVI values?
the ndvi value for each station is derived by averaging ndvi values over a window of 3 pixels by 3 pixels centered on each meteorological station. 
Which year computed the mean temperature and cumulative precipitation of each preseason?
then we computed the mean temperature and cumulative precipitation of each preseason period preceding this date for each year and each station. we used a 60-day preseason period hereafter unless otherwise mentioned
investigating the linkage between spring phenology and climate to investigate the response of spring vegetation green-up date to the change in climate, we only considered four vegetation types (deciduous broadleaf forest, desert vegetation, grassland and meadows), which have more than ten meteorological stations. the ndvi value for each station is derived by averaging ndvi values over a window of 3 pixels by 3 pixels centered on each meteorological station. at each station, we performed correlation analyses between spring green-up onset date and preseason climate variables (mean temperature and cumulative precipitation) over the last 29 years. we conducted sensitivity analyses to evaluate impacts of different preseason period lengths (30, 60, 90, 120, 150 and 180 days) on spring phenology-climate relationship by the five methods used in quantifying spring green-up onset date. all preseason periods were specified to end at the same date (julian day: 128), which is calculated by averaging green-up onset dates from all years, stations and methods. then we computed the mean temperature and cumulative precipitation of each preseason period preceding this date for each year and each station. we used a 60-day preseason period hereafter unless otherwise mentioned.
Wich studies the leaf gas exchange model was based ?
the leaf gas exchange model we employ is based on previous studies (hari et al. 1986; lloyd farquhar 1994; katul, palmroth oren 2009; katul, manzoni, palmroth and oren, 2010
What the theoretical considerations suggest ?
theoretical considerations suggest a monotonic increase of k with water stress (solid line), while a decrease is apparent from some estimates under severe stress and dotted line, estimates for corylus avellana from farquhar, schulze kuppers 1980b; h and dashed line, estimates for pseudotzuga species from grieu, guehl aussenac 1988
the leaf gas exchange model we employ is based on previous studies (hari et al. 1986; lloyd farquhar 1994; katul, palmroth oren 2009; katul, manzoni, palmroth and oren, 2010) and thus will be only briefly reviewed here, highlighting the approximations necessary to address the effects of plant water status on leaf gas exchange. the model accounts for water vapour and co2 fluxes between a leaf and fig. 1. qualitative dependence of the marginal water use efficiency, k on leaf water potential, wl. theoretical considerations suggest a monotonic increase of k with water stress (solid line), while a decrease is apparent from some estimates under severe stress and dotted line, estimates for corylus avellana from farquhar, schulze kuppers 1980b; h and dashed line, estimates for pseudotzuga species from grieu, guehl aussenac 1988). lines are qualitatively drawn to guide the eye.  2011 the authors. functional ecology  2011 british ecological society, functional ecology
What water quality problems result mainly from agricultural activities?
while there are no generalized water quantity problems expected for our area of study, there are definitely localized problems and water quality ones which result mainly from agricultural activities over which municipalities and eohu have almost no jurisdiction. the projected installation of two hog farms and of an ethanol production plant in the area may have significant impacts on groundwater quality (see section 2.2 supra). the human infrastructure offers vulnerabilities in terms of age-structure of the population and income in some areas. lack of expertise as related to climate change and its impact on built infrastructure is also significant
What is needed now is to spread awareness about climate change to the general public?
there is no reason to believe that local adaptive capacity to climate change would be lacking in eastern ontario. what is required now is to spread climate change awareness to the public at large and to translate this awareness into a climate adaptation strategy at the municipal and regional level. eowrms has provided recommendations with respect to some water infrastructures independently from climate change. many of these recommendations go a long way towards adaptation to climate change. therefore, our adaptation strategy aims at synergy with eowrms' recommendations and their implementation through eowrc. the province is offering a potential framing issue with watershed source water protection (government of ontario, 2003). under adaptation of water resources infrastructures, all those who directly benefit from adaptation should pay for the adaptation service according to the benefits-received model of public finance
Why is adaptation to the climate likely to have regional repercussions?
climate adaptation is likely to generate regional spillovers in terms of water quantity and quality management, which may not extend to the province of ontario as a whole, but may extend to portions of the great -lakes basin, eastern ontario for example. adaptation is more of the nature of a local public good than of a common property resource. therefore, an institution like eowrc, as a policy network on water-related infrastructure issues, should extend its scope to the whole eastern ontario region. cooperation among local municipalities and cas on a reciprocity basis is of the essence (keohane et al., 1995). this is what the ontario 'municipal act 2001' is supposed to encourage (see sub-section 2.3.1). however, unlike in international regimes, the province remains a hierarchical authority, which may block or facilitate the process
while there are no generalized water quantity problems expected for our area of study, there are definitely localized problems and water quality ones which result mainly from agricultural activities over which municipalities and eohu have almost no jurisdiction. the projected installation of two hog farms and of an ethanol production plant in the area may have significant impacts on groundwater quality (see section 2.2 supra). the human infrastructure offers vulnerabilities in terms of age-structure of the population and income in some areas. lack of expertise as related to climate change and its impact on built infrastructure is also significant. no persistent drought is expected; agricultural productivity may actually increase for cash crops (corn, soybeans; see section 3). there is no reason to believe that local adaptive capacity to climate change would be lacking in eastern ontario. what is required now is to spread climate change awareness to the public at large and to translate this awareness into a climate adaptation strategy at the municipal and regional level. eowrms has provided recommendations with respect to some water infrastructures independently from climate change. many of these recommendations go a long way towards adaptation to climate change. therefore, our adaptation strategy aims at synergy with eowrms' recommendations and their implementation through eowrc. the province is offering a potential framing issue with watershed source water protection (government of ontario, 2003). under adaptation of water resources infrastructures, all those who directly benefit from adaptation should pay for the adaptation service according to the benefits-received model of public finance. for some other adaptation benefits such as emergency services, it will sometimes be difficult to identify who benefits from the service; therefore, the service should be funded under municipal general revenue. inter municipal agreements are difficult to administer especially for public goods and lead to discontent when they are not limited to upper-tier municipalities (kitchen, 2003). climate adaptation is likely to generate regional spillovers in terms of water quantity and quality management, which may not extend to the province of ontario as a whole, but may extend to portions of the great -lakes basin, eastern ontario for example. adaptation is more of the nature of a local public good than of a common property resource. therefore, an institution like eowrc, as a policy network on water-related infrastructure issues, should extend its scope to the whole eastern ontario region. cooperation among local municipalities and cas on a reciprocity basis is of the essence (keohane et al., 1995). this is what the ontario 'municipal act 2001' is supposed to encourage (see sub-section 2.3.1). however, unlike in international regimes, the province remains a hierarchical authority, which may block or facilitate the process.
What location did this paper focus on?
this paper investigates local adaptation strategies to climate variability, focusing on agricultural decision-making in a communal irrigation scheme in vhembe district, limpopo province, south africa
What do the research results highlight a need for?
these results highlight the need for intervention and policy that support a heterogeneous response to a wide range of stresses
What methods were used to conduct research?
research done through interviews, surveys and participatory methods
understanding of how best to support those most vulnerable to climate stress is imperative given expected changes in climate variability. this paper investigates local adaptation strategies to climate variability, focusing on agricultural decision-making in a communal irrigation scheme in vhembe district, limpopo province, south africa. research done through interviews, surveys and participatory methods demonstrates that adaptation strategies within a community are socially differentiated and present differing objectives and priorities. these results highlight the need for intervention and policy that support a heterogeneous response to a wide range of stresses. evidence for climate change is clear and the need for adaptation is urgent. however, adaptation measures have to be sensitively integrated with ongoing development pathways to ensure they are sustainable and relevant to local priorities.
what types of anomalies in the average global total annual precipitation rate?
land and oceans
what is the first discussion document?
global annual mean surface air temperature anomalies (mpwp minus pre-industrial control experiment in*c) from each model in the pliomip experiment 1 and 2 ensembles. published estimates of experiment 2 models' equilibrium climate sensitivity also provided, alongside the global mean sst anomalies for each model in experiment 2
what is the second discussion document?
annual mean surface air temperature anomalies (*c) from each experiment 1 and 2 model separated into response over land and oceans; sat warming over land against ocean sat warming for all experiment 2 models also shown
discussion paper discussion paper discussion paper discussion paper fig. 1. top: global annual mean surface air temperature anomalies (mpwp minus pre-industrial control experiment in*c) from each model in the pliomip experiment 1 and 2 ensembles. published estimates of experiment 2 models' equilibrium climate sensitivity also provided, alongside the global mean sst anomalies for each model in experiment 2. middle: annual mean surface air temperature anomalies (*c) from each experiment 1 and 2 model separated into response over land and oceans; sat warming over land against ocean sat warming for all experiment 2 models also shown. bottom: global, land and ocean annual mean total precipitation rate (mmday- 1) anomalies for all models from experiment 1 and 2.
What densities have been considered?
we have considered only low edge densities
What can we say of the similarity and deviations?
even though there still is a high degree of similarity, the deviations are highly localized and structured pointing at a possible involvement of nonlinear processes in their formation
What have we found out from the surface air temperature data sets?
for the surface air temperature data sets, we have found some interesting qualitative and quantitative deviations at the global scale using betweenness centrality
in summary, we have performed a systematic study of the similarity of climate networks constructed using the linear pearson correlation and the nonlinear mutual information across local, mesoscopic and global topological scales. first, we have motivated the comparison of the two types of networks at equal edge densities. we have considered only low edge densities, that were shown to yield networks containing statistically highly significant edges as established on the basis of various significance tests. it has been then consistently shown for aogcm and reanalysis surface air temperature data, that the networks agree well on the local and mesoscopic topological scales. using the surface pressure field to construct climate networks also yielded qualitatively similar results and identical conclusions on these scales. for the surface air temperature data sets, we have found some interesting qualitative and quantitative deviations at the global scale using betweenness centrality. even though there still is a high degree of similarity, the deviations are highly localized and structured pointing at a possible involvement of nonlinear processes in their formation.
What provide aerosol vertical distribution?
aerosol vertical distribution is provided mainly by lidars
Can we separate anthropogenic from natural aerosols using satellite data?
it is difficult to separate anthropogenic from natural aerosols using currently available satellite data alone
How can we quantify anthropogenic aerosol?
at present, better quantification of anthropogenic aerosol depends upon integrating satellite measurements with other observations and models
aod, whichever is larger, for vegetated land, somewhat better over dark water, and less well over bright desert (e.g., kahn et al., 2005a; remer et al., 2005). reliable aod retrieval over snow and ice from passive remote sensing imagers has not yet been achieved. from space, aerosol vertical distribution is provided mainly by lidars that offer sensitivity to multiple layers, even in the presence of thin cloud, but they require several weeks to observe just a fraction of a percent of the planet. from the expansive vantage point of space, there is enough information to identify columnaverage ratios of coarse to fine aod, or even aerosol air mass types in some circumstances, but not sufficient to deduce chemical composition and vertical distribution of type, nor to constrain light absorption approaching the ~0.02 ssa sensitivity suggested in section 1.2. as a result, it is difficult to separate anthropogenic from natural aerosols using currently available satellite data alone, though attempts at this have been made based on retrieved particle size and shape information (see chapter 2). at present, better quantification of anthropogenic aerosol depends upon integrating satellite measurements with other observations and models. aircraft and ground-based in situ sampling can help fill in missing physical and chemical detail, although coverage is very limited in
To describe the EMF with biodiversity?
we related emf to biodiversity for each site, where biodiversity is the complete tally of all species at each sampled site. more specifically, plant biodiversity (species richness) is the number of plant species, bacterial and archaeal biodiversity is the number of otus, am fungal richness is the number of virtual taxa, and faunal richness is the number of taxonomic units at the order level tallied at each site
To define OTUs:
we were conservative in our estimates and used a similarity of 97% (ref. 64) to delineate otus to represent soil bacteria and soil archaea species
we related emf to biodiversity for each site, where biodiversity is the complete tally of all species at each sampled site. more specifically, plant biodiversity (species richness) is the number of plant species, bacterial and archaeal biodiversity is the number of otus, am fungal richness is the number of virtual taxa, and faunal richness is the number of taxonomic units at the order level tallied at each site. we were conservative in our estimates and used a similarity of 97% (ref. 64) to delineate otus to represent soil bacteria and soil archaea species. we used virtual taxa for am fungi, which are defined with bootstrap support and a sequence similarity of z 97% (ref. 65). note that we use the term 'biodiversity' throughout, although the microbial and archaeal groups are phylotypes, am fungal groups are virtual taxa, faunal groups are taxa at the order level. in addition, we used an approach of averaging standardized values of belowground biodiversity into a single index (soil biodiversity) as described by wagg et al.11. an index was used from the average of all standardized biodiversity
What units are used for reporting annual precipitation?
annual precipitation is in mm/yr in parentheses
What units are used for reporting severity of mortality at the stand or population level?
percentage of dead trees (depending on study design), unless otherwise noted in the entry
How are biotic agents and their roles shown?
if biotic agents are thought to have played a primary role in tree mortality, this is noted in bold type. if biotic agents were involved in mortality but their role was not evaluated or is secondary to climate, the agents are simply listed
mediterranean forest types are abbreviated as med. in this column. annual precipitation is in mm/yr in parentheses if reported. b severity of mortality is reported at the stand or population level as percentage of dead trees (depending on study design), unless otherwise noted in the entry. other common units are annual mortality rate during drought (%/ year), percent dead basal area, and dead wood volume in meters3. c if biotic agents are thought to have played a primary role in tree mortality, this is noted in bold type. if biotic agents were involved in mortality but their role was not evaluated or is secondary to climate, the agents are simply listed. d citations from which reported mortality data is derived are written in bold type. other citations provide corroborating or secondary evidence. if there are multiple citations without no bold type, reported data reflects numbers compiled from all citations. c.d. allen et al. forest ecology and management xxx (2009) xxx-xxx 13
What were the general comments?
general comments the current work presents simulations of 5 climate-chemistry models (4 off-line coupled and 1 online) over europe aiming to investigate the impact of climate change on surface ozone
Define control time slice of the study?
the control time slice of the study is selected to be 2000-2009 and the future time slice 2040-2049 (a1b scenario
Why Anthropogenic emissions are kept constant?
anthropogenic emissions are kept constant for the control and future simulation in order to isolate the impact of climate change on air quality. the paper addresses the scientific question of climate-air quality interactions, which is an interesting topic, well within the scope of the journal
general comments the current work presents simulations of 5 climate-chemistry models (4 off-line coupled and 1 online) over europe aiming to investigate the impact of climate change on surface ozone. the control time slice of the study is selected to be 2000-2009 and the future time slice 2040-2049 (a1b scenario). anthropogenic emissions are kept constant for the control and future simulation in order to isolate the impact of climate change on air quality. the paper addresses the scientific question of climate-air quality interactions, which is an interesting topic, well within the scope of the journal. however, there are some issues in the methodology followed, the presentation and the discussion of the material, requiring major revisions prior to publication. the most important issues raised are described below in detail. c798
At what point of the day does the savanna have a higher air temperature and lower relative humidity than forest?
at midday, savanna had higher air temperature and lower relative humidity than forest
At what point of the day does the savanna have lower air temperature and higher relative humidity than the forest?
at night, however, this pattern was reversed, with savanna having lower air temperature and higher relative humidity than forest
Which climate had greater wind speeds during the day?
midday wind speeds were greater in savanna than in forest, but there was little wind in either environment
results microclimate there were significant gradients across the savanna- forest boundary for almost every environmental variable measured (fig. 1). at midday, savanna had higher air temperature and lower relative humidity than forest (fig. 1). at night, however, this pattern was reversed, with savanna having lower air temperature and higher relative humidity than forest. as a result, dew was present on the leaf wetness sensors for a mean duration of 5.6 h per night in savanna, but dew was never detected in any forest site. in savanna, dew was present most nights, but tended to become less frequent as the dry season progressed (not shown). midday wind speeds were greater in savanna than in forest, but there was little wind in either environment
Why cant the trend be removed in the method of climate field?
however, because it is tied to a unique spatial pattern driven by change in radiative balance, the trend cannot simply be removed in the method of climate field reconstruction used by mbh on the statistical argument of preserving degrees of freedom
What can the influence from the trend be taken into?
more appropriately, the influence from the trend can be taken into account in some methods of significance testing
What do we now need to focus instead on resolving climate variability?
however, there is now a need to move beyond hemispheric average temperatures and to focus instead on resolving climate variability at the socially more relevant regional scale. 1 according to all commonly used instrumental climate data series, ten (nasa-giss) or eleven (hadcru and noaa) out of the twelve most recent years have been among the twelve warmest on record for the northern hemisphere
a portion of the debate about climate reconstructions of the past millennium, and in particular about the well-known mann-bradley-hughes " mbh " 1998, 1999) reconstructions, has become disconnected from the goal of understanding natural climate variability. here, we reflect on what can be learned from recent scientific exchanges and identify important challenges that remain to be addressed openly and productively by the community. one challenge arises from the real, underlying trend in temperatures during the instrumental period. this trend can affect regression-based reconstruction performance in cases where the calibration period does not appropriately cover the range of conditions encountered during the reconstruction. however, because it is tied to a unique spatial pattern driven by change in radiative balance, the trend cannot simply be removed in the method of climate field reconstruction used by mbh on the statistical argument of preserving degrees of freedom. more appropriately, the influence from the trend can be taken into account in some methods of significance testing. we illustrate these considerations as they apply to the mbh reconstruction and show that it remains robust back to ad 1450, and given other empirical information also back to ad 1000. however, there is now a need to move beyond hemispheric average temperatures and to focus instead on resolving climate variability at the socially more relevant regional scale. 1 according to all commonly used instrumental climate data series, ten (nasa-giss) or eleven (hadcru and noaa) out of the twelve most recent years have been among the twelve warmest on record for the northern hemisphere. although this warming is generally in good agreement with climate model-based projections (e.g., tett et al. 1999 folland et al. 2001
What is the importance of the nasal cavity?
the nasal cavity is essential for humidifying and warming the air before it reaches the sensitive lungs
What does the shape of the nasal cavity indicate?
nasal cavity shape is expected to show climatic adaptation
What two structures of the anatomy were compared in this study?
the bony nasal cavity appears mostly associated with temperature, and the nasopharynx with humidity
paleoanthropology section, senckenberg center for human evolution and paleoecology, eberhard karls universita"t tu"bingen, department of early prehistory and quaternary ecology, 72070, tu"bingen, germany 2department of cell and developmental biology, university college london, london, wc1e 6jj, united kingdom 3department of human evolution, max planck institute for evolutionary anthropology, 04103 leipzig, germany key words nose; adaptation; geometric morphometrics; pls the nasal cavity is essential for humidifying and warming the air before it reaches the sensitive lungs. because humans inhabit environments that can be seen as extreme from the perspective of respiratory function, nasal cavity shape is expected to show climatic adaptation. this study examines the relationship between modern human variation in the morphology of the nasal cavity and the climatic factors of temperature and vapor pressure, and tests the hypothesis that within increasingly demanding environments (colder and drier), nasal cavities will show features that enhance turbulence and air-wall contact to improve conditioning of the air. we use threedimensional geometric morphometrics methods and multivariate statistics to model and analyze the shape of the bony nasal cavity of 10 modern human population samples from five climatic groups. we report significant correlations between nasal cavity shape and climatic variables of both temperature and humidity. variation in nasal cavity shape is correlated with a cline from cold-dry climates to hot- humid climates, with a separate temperature and vapor pressure effect. the bony nasal cavity appears mostly associated with temperature, and the nasopharynx with humidity. the observed climate-related shape changes are functionally consistent with an increase in contact between air and mucosal tissue in cold-dry climates through greater turbulence during inspiration and a higher surface-to-volume ratio in the upper nasal cavity. am j phys anthropol 000:000-000, 2011. v v c 2011 wiley-liss, inc.
What is the Scaled-up renewable energy generation about?
scaled-up renewable energy generation is an important mitigation measure, and is central to reducing the carbon intensity of economies while meeting growing energy demand, particularly in developing countries. in 2012, 76 countries added 70 gw of large-scale renewable energy according to bnef (43.6 gw of which is based in developing countries). as in landscape 2011 and 2012 this group of actors' significance derives from their responsibility for executing the majority of new largescale renewable energy investments (approximately 63
What effects do current imbalances cause?
current imbalances in incentives for investing in low-carbon and climate-resilient measures, as opposed to business-as-usual investments, mean that while this group comprises the largest private providers of climate finance, they are also the main contributors of global emissions
landscape 2013 finds that in 2012, project developers contributed by far the largest single share, approximately usd 102 billion or 28%, of total global climate finance flows this group of actors played a particular role in developing countries, where approximately 61% of the usd 102 billion investments were made. scaled-up renewable energy generation is an important mitigation measure, and is central to reducing the carbon intensity of economies while meeting growing energy demand, particularly in developing countries. in 2012, 76 countries added 70 gw of large-scale renewable energy according to bnef (43.6 gw of which is based in developing countries). as in landscape 2011 and 2012 this group of actors' significance derives from their responsibility for executing the majority of new largescale renewable energy investments (approximately 63%). current imbalances in incentives for investing in low-carbon and climate-resilient measures, as opposed to business-as-usual investments, mean that while this group comprises the largest private providers of climate finance, they are also the main contributors of global emissions. for the first time, our analysis identifies the multiple levels and depth of entity ownership(s), allowing us to more precisely identify the so-called 'ultimate' owners of renewable energy finance investments this is important because while, on the surface, most project developers appear to act like profit-driven private investors, a substantial portion actually have significant degrees of state-ownership.43
What must a National Forest planning include?
must incorporate the opportunity to identify vulnerabilities to climate change as well as incorporate approaches that allow management adjustments
Which are the circumstances that imply a National Forest System won't fit all situations?
the nature of environmental variability, the inevitability of novelty and surprise, and the range of management objectives and situations
What type of practices should stand when developing a National Forest System?
forestalling climate change effects by building resistance and resilience into current ecosystems, and on managing for change by enabling plants, animals, and ecosystems to adapt to climate change
this study explores potential adaptation approachesinplanningandmanagementthattheunitedstatesforest service might adopt to help achieve its goals and objectives in the face of climate change. availability of information, vulnerability of ecological and socio-economic systems, and uncertainties associated with climate change, as well as the interacting non-climatic changes, influence selection of the adaptation approach. resource assessments are opportunities to develop strategic information that could be used to identify and link adaptation strategies across planning levels. within a national forest, planning must incorporate the opportunity to identify vulnerabilities to climate change as well as incorporate approaches that allow management adjustments as the effects of climate change become apparent. the nature of environmental variability, the inevitability of novelty and surprise, and the range of management objectives and situations across the national forest system implies that no single approach will fit all situations. a toolbox of management options would include practices focused on forestalling climate change effects by building resistance and resilience into current ecosystems, and on managing for change by enabling plants, animals, and ecosystems to adapt to climate change. betterandmorewidespreadimplementationofalreadyknown practicesthatreducetheimpactofexistingstressorsrepresents an important ''no regrets'' strategy. these management opportunities will require agency consideration of its adaptive
On which it is mainly focused?
here we focus mainly on precipitation, which is the most difficult variable to simulate and the one that usually shows a large sensitivity to changes in the dynamics
we conduct several experiments to investigate the influence of the position of the domain in the results. here we focus mainly on precipitation, which is the most difficult variable to simulate and the one that usually shows a large sensitivity to changes in the dynamics. the center of the grid of the control experiment (figure 1) was successively moved 17  to the west, 10  to the east, 7  to the north, and 10  to the south. the distance moved in each direction is the maximum permitted so that, without changing the grid geometry, the u.s. is contained in the interior of the domain and the buffer zones in the boundaries lie as much over the ocean as they did for the control experiment. in another experiment the grid was rotated so that the long axis of its rectangular shape adopts a north-south orientation. in this case, the number of points was kept at 108  150, and the u.s. is also contained in the interior of the domain, out of the buffer zones. the geometry of the grid was only altered in one experiment where it was made a square with 108  108 points. the exact position of the different domains is shown together with results from the control experiment in the figure 2. because rams uses a rotated polarstereographic projection and we display all results in the same latlon projection, grids displaced to the north appear to extend through a much larger region than they actually do. all grids cover exactly the same surface area, except for the experiment with a square domain. figure 2 shows precipitation totals for june 2000 for observations and the different grid locations. it is clearly apparent that when displacing the grid, model results vary largely, not only in precipitation amounts but also in pattern.
What are the physiological processes of zooplankton?
first, zooplankton are poikilothermic, so their physiological processes, such as ingestion, respiration, and reproductive development, are highly sensitive to temperature, with rates doubling or tripling with a 10 8 c temperature rise (mauchline, 1998
Why plankton are free floating?
the distribution of zooplankton can accurately reflect temperature and ocean currents because plankton are free floating, and most remain so for their entire life
zooplankton are beacons of climate change for a host of reasons. first, zooplankton are poikilothermic, so their physiological processes, such as ingestion, respiration, and reproductive development, are highly sensitive to temperature, with rates doubling or tripling with a 10 8 c temperature rise (mauchline, 1998). second, most zooplankton species are short-lived 1 year), so there can be tight coupling of climate and population dynamics (hays et al ., 2005). in fact, some evidence suggests that plankton are more sensitive indicators of change than even environmental variables themselves, because the non-linear responses of plankton communities can amplify subtle environmental signals (taylor et al ., 2002). third, unlike other marine groups, such as fish and many intertidal organisms, zooplankton are generally not commercially exploited (exceptions include krill and some jellyfish species), so studies of long-term trends in response to environmental change are generally not confounded with trends in exploitation. fourth, the distribution of zooplankton can accurately reflect temperature and ocean currents because plankton are free floating, and most remain so for their entire life. in contrast, terrestrial organisms are either rooted to their substratum or need to spend considerable energy to migrate or move. further, reproductive products of zooplankton are distributed by currents and not by vectors, making changes in zooplankton distribution with climate change easier to understand than the more complex responses of terrestrial species. last, because ocean currents provide an ideal mechanism for dispersal over large distances, almost all marine animals have a planktonic stage in their life cycles; therefore, alterations in the distribution of many marine groups are at least partially determined while floating in the zooplankton. as we will see, recent evidence suggests that many of the meroplanktonic life stages are even more sensitive to climate change than their holozooplanktonic neighbours living permanently in the plankton. all of these attributes combine to make zooplankton sensitive beacons of climate change.
What are the six aspects that connect climate change to adverse health outcomes the UCL focused on?
we have focused on six aspects that connect climate change to adverse health outcomes: changing patterns of disease and mortality, food, water and sanitation, shelter and human settlements, extreme events, and population and migration
the ucl lancet commission has considered what the main obstacles to eff ective adaptation might be. we have focused on six aspects that connect climate change to adverse health outcomes: changing patterns of disease and mortality, food, water and sanitation, shelter and human settlements, extreme events, and population and migration. each has been considered in relation to fi ve key challenges to form a policy response framework: informational, poverty and equity-related, technological, sociopolitical, and institutional. our capacity to respond to the negative health eff ects of climate change relies on the generation of reliable, relevant, and up-to-date information. strengthening informational, technological, and scientifi c capacity within developing countries is crucial for the success of a new public health movement. this capacity building will help to keep vulnerability to a minimum and build resilience in local, regional, and national infrastructures. local and community voices are crucial in informing this process. weak capacity for research to inform adaptation in poor countries is likely to deepen the social inequality in relation to health. few comprehensive assessments on the eff ect of climate change on health have been completed in low-income and middle-income countries, and none in africa. this report endorses the 2008 world health assembly recommendations for full documentation of the risks to health and diff erences in vulnerability within and between populations; devel opment of health protection strategies; identifi cation of health co-benefi ts of actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; development of ways to support decisions and systems to predict the eff ect of climate change; and estimation of the fi nancial costs of action and inaction. policy responses to the public health implications of climate change will have to be formulated in conditions of uncertainty, which will exist about the scale and timing of the eff ects, as well as their nature, location, and intensity. a key challenge is to improve surveillance and primary health information systems in the poorest countries, and to share the knowledge and adaptation strategies of local communities on a wide scale. essential data need to include region-specifi c projections of changes in health-related exposures, projections of health outcomes under diff erent future emissions and adaptation scenarios, crop yields, food prices, measures of household food security, local hydrological and climate data, estimates of the vulnerability of human settlements (eg, in urban slums or communities close to coastal areas), risk factors, and response options for extreme climatic events, vulnerability to migration as a result of sea-level changes or storms, and key health, nutrition, and demographic indicators by country and locality. we also urgently need to generate evidence and projections on health eff ects and adaptation for a more severe (3-4degc) rise in temperature, which will almost certainly have profound health and economic implications. such data could increase advocacy for urgent and drastic action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Which simulation is paid for period 1900-1990?
the hst simulation is used for the period 1900-1990
What does the solid grey line show?
the observed temperature and precipitation from the gridded dataset, averaged in the same manner, for the period 19492000, is shown as a solid grey line
What is the period 1949-1990 used for ?
the period 1949-1990 is used for fitting the downscaling method
january-february (djf, left column) and over the months june-july-august (jja, right column) for each year of the simulations. the hst simulation is used for the period 1900-1990 and the a2 simulation from 1990 to 2100. ten-year running means of the hst (dark dashed line), a2 (dark dashed line), and the b2 (grey dashed line) scenarios are also shown. the observed temperature and precipitation from the gridded dataset, averaged in the same manner, for the period 19492000, is shown as a solid grey line. the period 1949-1990 is used for fitting the downscaling method. figure 2 suggests that the downscaled echam4 hst simulation captures both the mean value and the characteristic interannual variability of wintertime temperature and precipitation. to better illustrate statistical properties, the probability distributions of the time series are shown in figures 3 and 4. these figures present the values of temperature or precipitation for a given value of the cumulative distribution function (cdf) i.e. the inverse empirical cdfs of
What happens to the surplus accumulated at one stage?
the surplus accumulated at one stage becomes the investment fund for the next
What does the capital require constant access to, to sustain the process?
to sustain this process, capital requires constant access to, and an increasingly large supply of, natural materials
The law of value remains central to what?
the law of value remains central to understanding capitalism and the ecological crisis
in some respects, this is a self-propelling process, as the surplus accumulated at one stage becomes the investment fund for the next (such as technological development to expand or improve production). in this, the scale of capitalist operation is ever-increasing, driven by ceaseless economic growth. to sustain this process, capital requires constant access to, and an increasingly large supply of, natural materials (e.g., petroleum). capital freely appropriates nature's supplies and leaves wastes behind.81as the economic system grows under capitalism, the throughputs of materials and energy increase and capital incorporates ever-larger amounts of natural resources into its operations. the law of value remains central to understanding capitalism and the ecological crisis.82for marx, "the earth is active as an agent of
What is major social psychological theories of perception and social influence?
one of the major social psychological theories of perception and social influence is moscovici's (1988
What are the two key processes involved in understanding and evaluating changes in the social/physical environment?
social representations theory, which identifies two key processes involved in understanding and evaluating changes in the social/physical environment: 'objectification' (translating the into the concrete and tangible) and 'anchoring' (categorising according to pre--existing cognitive frameworks thus rendering familiar
What are the two things related to individual learning?
it is useful to refer to the cognitive and social psychology literatures relating to individual learning
given the intangibility, complexity and uncertainty of climate change, how do individuals learn about it, and in what ways (if at all) is this understanding integrated into existing knowledge and applied in daily decisions? here, it is useful to refer to the cognitive and social psychology literatures relating to individual learning. both highlight the relational and constructivist nature of learning, whereby individuals interpret new experiences in light of, and build new understanding around, existing concepts and beliefs (marshall, 1995). one of the major social psychological theories of perception and social influence is moscovici's (1988) social representations theory, which identifies two key processes involved in understanding and evaluating changes in the social/physical environment: 'objectification' (translating the into the concrete and tangible) and 'anchoring' (categorising according to pre--existing cognitive frameworks thus rendering familiar). crucially, these cognitive frameworks arise from cultural, as well as psychological, origins and are often normative in nature: 'most of our reasoning in societies depends on categories of right or wrong more than those
How is heavy precipitation defined?
heavy precipitation is defined differently for each grid point as twice the grid point decadal mean
The bias over Norwegian topography is removed in what?
the bias over norwegian topography is removed in both seasons
A posteriori optimizations would require what?
of course a posteriori optimizations would require further validation possibly involving simulations with other models
in fig. 4 we show a heavy precipitation index averaged over the same seasons and years as in figs. 2 and 3 this index was calculated as follows. for each day, the number of immediately preceding consecutive days with heavy precipitation is considered. heavy precipitation is defined differently for each grid point as twice the grid point decadal mean. subsequently, daily precipitation is integrated over this range of days leading to the total precipitation for the entire " heavy precipitation event " preceding each day. as for the former, this index too is significantly affected by the temporal structure of the precipitation data. in this case, there is the added factor of the dimensionality of precipitation. we chose to validate with the actual measure of total precipitation, as opposed to the simple count of heavy precipitation days, because this would be the relevant quantity for hydrological purposes. the validation is positive though arguably not as good as in the case of the drought index. the bias over norwegian topography is removed in both seasons. central europe is greatly improved in both seasons; most of the simulated local maxima are removed, though some of the unobserved maxima over the transylvanian alps remain. the winter distribution in spain is also significantly improved. 4 discussion and conclusions it is important to note that the same corrected precipitation field was used to produce panels b and e in figs. 2 3 and 4 this implies that the field can be used directly as input to hydrological models. this is crucially not the case when simple additive or multiplicative bias corrections are used. arguably, the methodology presented in this study could be tailored a posteriori to give better results when applied to these particular model simulations; for example, histogram bin size and the fitting algorithm could be changed to minimize the validation error. of course a posteriori optimizations would require further validation possibly involving simulations with other models. this is part of a planned work schedule including sensitivity studies to algorithm parameter settings. one experiment was done to recalculate the heavy precipitation index using a nonweighted least-square fitting algorithm for the pdfs. as expected, because this decreases the weight on the tail of the distributions were absolute errors translate into large relative errors, the corrected data showed little or no improvement in the high precipitation index. results would also improve if seasons were corrected separately. with the present dataset, this may have made sense, but one of the aims of this study was to show that the method has potential even when the corrections are calculated without seasonal distinction. this will have to be the adopted procedure when limited observational datasets are available. a further experiment will be to evaluate the improvement of the hydrological model simulation with and without the biascorrected precipitation field (leander and buishand 2007 van der linden and christensen 2003 ).
Fluvial deposits in a basin north of Holden crater exhibiting a sinuous of what pattern?
anabranching pattern
What wavelength indicate persistent flow magnitudes
of about 700 m3/s
what is water called in this?
hydro
fluvial deposits in a basin north of holden crater exhibiting a sinuous, anabranching pattern are of deltaic or fan origin. channel width and meander wavelength indicate persistent flow magnitudes of about 700 m3/s. if these flows were produced by quasi-periodic climate episodes involving typical terrestrial-style precipitation, the deposit required thousands to millions of years to accumulate. however, a scenario of deposition during a few short episodes of constant heavy precipitation resulting from large impacts cannot be excluded. index terms: 1815 hydrology: erosion and sedimentation; 1824 hydrology: geomorphology (1625); 5407 planetology: solid surface planets: atmospheres-- evolution; 5415 planetology: solid surface planets: erosion and weathering; 5470 planetology: solid surface planets: surface materials and properties. citation: moore, j. m., a. d. howard, w. e. dietrich, and p. m. schenk, martian layered fluvial deposits: implications for noachian climate scenarios, geophys. res. lett. 30 (24), 2292, doi:10.1029/2003gl019002, 2003.
At aggregated level as well as at the plot level, what is the principal cause of interannual yield variability?
at aggregated level as well as at the plot level, rainfall variability is a principal cause of interannual yield variability
the impacts of climate change to the middle of this century on crop yields in parts of East Africa may be under-estimated by how much in percentage?
the impacts of climate change to the middle of this century on crop yields in parts of east africa may be under-estimated by between 4 and 27%, depending on the crop, if only changes in climatic means are taken into account and climate variability is ignored (rowhani et al., 2011
at aggregated level as well as at the plot level, rainfall variability is a principal cause of interannual yield variability. for example, hlavinka et al. (2009) found a statistically significant correlation between a monthly drought index and district-level yields in the czech republic for several winterand spring-sown crops, each of which has a different sensitivity to drought. both intraand inter-seasonal changes in temperature and precipitation have been shown to influence cereal yields in tanzania (rowhani et al., 2011). the increases in rainfall variability expected in the future will have substantial impacts on primary productivity and on the ecosystem provisioning services provided by forests and agroforestry systems. despite the uncertainty surrounding the precise changes, climate variability needs to be taken into account. for example, the impacts of climate change to the middle of this century on crop yields in parts of east africa may be under-estimated by between 4 and 27%, depending on the crop, if only changes in climatic means are taken into account and climate variability is ignored (rowhani et al., 2011).
What the policy proposals relying on individuals' voluntary carbon reduction highlights?
policy proposals relying on individuals' voluntary carbon reduction highlight the need for at least some level of public understanding of the causes and consequences of carbon emissions, as well as the ability and motivation for individuals to reduce emissions
What Seyfang et al. (2007) have proposed?
seyfang et al. (2007) have proposed the concept of 'carbon capability' to capture the contextual meanings associated with carbon and individuals' ability and motivation to reduce emissions, but this model has not hitherto been empirically applied
What is the aim of this paper?
this paper aims to address that knowledge gap by presenting an initial study of public carbon capability
policy proposals relying on individuals' voluntary carbon reduction highlight the need for at least some level of public understanding of the causes and consequences of carbon emissions, as well as the ability and motivation for individuals to reduce emissions. however, little has been done to consider the situated meanings of carbon and energy in everyday life and decisions. seyfang et al. (2007) have proposed the concept of 'carbon capability' to capture the contextual meanings associated with carbon and individuals' ability and motivation to reduce emissions, but this model has not hitherto been empirically applied. this paper aims to address that knowledge gap by presenting an initial study of public carbon capability. the paper begins with a review of theoretical and policy contexts around public engagement with climate change, conceptualizing climate change and carbon, and an elaboration of the carbon capability model. it then presents empirical findings from a uk survey of public engagement with climate change and carbon capability, focusing on both individual and institutional dimensions. in so doing, we attempt a novel synthesis between psychological and sociological approaches to behavior change. we then discuss the findings and implications for policy, in terms of measures to increase carbon capability in the populace, and conclude with reflections on the limitations of individual--focused instruments to achieve lifestyle change in social context.
After air lifted out of the boundary layer rain out most of its water vapour, where does it return to?
air lifted out of the boundary layer can continue ascending, rain out most of its water vapour, and then return to a relatively low altitude--or it can exit the updraught directly at the low altitude
After the air lifted out of the boundary layer rains out most of its water vapour, what exit process reduces the ''bulk precipitation efficiency'' of convection?
exit the updraught directly at the low altitude, retaining much more of its initial vapour content
What does the paper show about the lower-tropospheric mixing of air lifted out of the boundary layer?
show that mixing varies substantially among gcms and that its moisture transport increases in warmer climates at a rate that appears to scale roughly with the initial lower-tropospheric mixing
we consider that a mechanism similar to this one, which has so far been considered only for a particular cloud regime, could apply more generally to shallow upward moisture transports, such as by cumulus congestus clouds or larger-scale shallow overturning found broadly over global ocean regions. air lifted out of the boundary layer can continue ascending, rain out most of its water vapour, and then return to a relatively low altitude--or it can exit the updraught directly at the low altitude, retaining much more of its initial vapour content. the latter process reduces the ''bulk precipitation efficiency'' of convection10, allowing greater transport of moisture out of the boundary layer for a givenprecipitationrate.suchaprocesscanincreasetherelativehumidity above theboundarylayer11and drythe boundarylayer.unlike theglobal hydrological cycle and the deep precipitation-forming circulations12, however, it is not strongly constrained by atmospheric energetics11. we present measures of this lower-tropospheric mixing and the amount of moisture it transports, and show that mixing varies substantially among gcms and that its moisture transport increases in warmer climates at a rate that appears to scale roughly with the initial lower-tropospheric mixing.
What is the most important factor for the daytime downward heat flow from a roof surface in a hot climate?
the exposure of the roof surface to solar radiation increases the roof surface temperature and sets up a heat flow in parallel to the one set-up by temperature difference. fig. 2 illustrates the temperature profile of a roof with and without solar radiation exposure, suggesting the effect of solar radiation absorption usually is the most important factor for the daytime downward heat flow from a roof surface in a hot climate. in tropical regions the daytime heat flow due to the outside-inside air temperature difference is typically in the order of 5 k, while the heat flow due to solar radiation absorption on the roof surface is of the order of 20 k
In tropical regions what would be heat flow due to the inside-outside air temperature difference and that due to solar radiation absorption on roof surface?
in tropical regions the daytime heat flow due to the outside-inside air temperature difference is typically in the order of 5 k, while the heat flow due to solar radiation absorption on the roof surface is of the order of 20 k
What are the other variables influencing the roof temperature?
it should be noted that the solar absorptance of the roof surface is not the only variable influencing the roof temperature. the thermal emittance from the roof surface, which determines the radiative heat exchange with the sky, also plays an important role (particularly in low wind conditions). measurements suggest that roofs in tropical climates cool 1-6 8 c below ambient temperature during nighttime and that the temperature depression may be limited by the formation of dew (khedari et al. ). typically the sky temperature depression below ambient is 2-20 k and strongly depends on the level of cloudiness (cooper et al. oliveti et al. ). for non-metallic surfaces (e.g. painted steel and roof tiles) the thermal radiation emittance to the sky is typically about 0.9 while for bare metal surfaces it varies (for zinc/aluminium and galvanised steel the thermal emittance is approximately 0.3
a temperature difference between the outside and inside temperature. (2) solar radiation that is being absorbed on the roof surface. the exposure of the roof surface to solar radiation increases the roof surface temperature and sets up a heat flow in parallel to the one set-up by temperature difference. fig. 2 illustrates the temperature profile of a roof with and without solar radiation exposure, suggesting the effect of solar radiation absorption usually is the most important factor for the daytime downward heat flow from a roof surface in a hot climate. in tropical regions the daytime heat flow due to the outside-inside air temperature difference is typically in the order of 5 k, while the heat flow due to solar radiation absorption on the roof surface is of the order of 20 k (see also appendix a.1 ). it should be noted that the solar absorptance of the roof surface is not the only variable influencing the roof temperature. the thermal emittance from the roof surface, which determines the radiative heat exchange with the sky, also plays an important role (particularly in low wind conditions). measurements suggest that roofs in tropical climates cool 1-6 8 c below ambient temperature during nighttime and that the temperature depression may be limited by the formation of dew (khedari et al. ). typically the sky temperature depression below ambient is 2-20 k and strongly depends on the level of cloudiness (cooper et al. oliveti et al. ). for non-metallic surfaces (e.g. painted steel and roof tiles) the thermal radiation emittance to the sky is typically about 0.9 while for bare metal surfaces it varies (for zinc/aluminium and galvanised steel the thermal emittance is approximately 0.3 [23,24] ).
what are the needs of finance?
education and information are important, and ideally should include household-specific information, such as professional home energy audits and energy comparisons for particular choices a consumer is facing
what is the process taken  Financial incentives to reduce the initial costs?
financial incentives to reduce the initial costs of upgrading to energy-efficient products are also important, and many creative possibilities exist in this sector, including incentives targeted to intermediaries; loan subsidies, deferred-payment loans, and rebates for home retrofits; and alterations in policies for mortgage and auto loans that take into account the energy cost of ownership
what are  overcoming the nonmonetary barriers to costeffective investments in energy efficiency?
convenience and credibility enhancements, such as providing free and trustworthy energy audits and lists of approved contractors and help in securing low-cost financing and inspection of completed work, can be very important for overcoming the nonmonetary barriers to costeffective investments in energy efficiency
multicomponent programs are needed to encourage energy savings, especially when the initial costs are nontrivial. education and information are important, and ideally should include household-specific information, such as professional home energy audits and energy comparisons for particular choices a consumer is facing. financial incentives to reduce the initial costs of upgrading to energy-efficient products are also important, and many creative possibilities exist in this sector, including incentives targeted to intermediaries; loan subsidies, deferred-payment loans, and rebates for home retrofits; and alterations in policies for mortgage and auto loans that take into account the energy cost of ownership. convenience and credibility enhancements, such as providing free and trustworthy energy audits and lists of approved contractors and help in securing low-cost financing and inspection of completed work, can be very important for overcoming the nonmonetary barriers to costeffective investments in energy efficiency. programs that offered this sort of one-stop shopping during the energy crisis of the late 1970s were attractive to households because of these assurances, but these campaigns might have been more successful if they aggressively marketed themselves and if stronger financial incentives were available.25
What 3 desirable attributes makes it a major challenge to design high-performing stoves?
a major challenge is designing high-performing stoves that can be made a ff ordable, that meet users ' broader energy needs, and that women want to use
In what stove-related technologies can many improvements be made in?
related technologies such as stove materials and components, ventilation, and cookware
What is needed to support standard development?
to support standard development, additional laboratory and fi eld testing of fuel use and emissions is needed, along with laboratory tests that better re fl ect actual fi eld performance
despite the growing availability of advanced stoves and fuels that reduce fuel use, household exposures to pm2.5, and shortlived climate pollutants (including bc), more studies are needed to quantify the bene fi ts of di ff erent stove and fuel combinations, in both the laboratory and in the fi eld. in addition, a major challenge is designing high-performing stoves that can be made a ff ordable, that meet users ' broader energy needs, and that women want to use. even a high-performing stove only provides bene fi ts if it is used frequently on a sustained basis and displaces less e ffi cient devices. additional research is thus needed to strengthen the evidence base and overcome challenges to achieving the many potential bene fi ts of clean stoves worldwide (table 3). strengthening the evidence base by demonstrating the magnitude of the health, environmental, and socio-economic bene fi ts of clean cookstoves and fuels is a critical priority that will help drive investment into solving this issue. research is needed to further de fi ne how clean stoves and fuels need to be to provide real bene fi ts for health, climate, and the environment. more studies are needed to quantify the bene fi ts of cleaner cooking for ambient air quality; development and child survival; reducing adult respiratory, cardiovascular, and other diseases; and reducing the incidence of severe burns and injuries. studies on the bene fi ts of e ffi cient cooking solutions for refugees and other vulnerable populations speci fi cally are also needed. in addition, many improvements can be made in stove design, monitoring, and related technologies such as stove materials and components, ventilation, and cookware. research is needed to understand the bene fi ts of these technological improvements, as well as of the bene fi ts of switching from minimally processed solid fuels to cleaner gaseous, liquid, pelletized, and renewable fuels, including the impacts and e ffi ciency of fuel production. in addition to strengthening the evidence base, a more integrated understanding of the interplay between socio-cultural, economic, and technological factors is essential for sustaining intervention e ff orts. improving access to fi nancing, usercentered design, fi eld testing, understanding cultural values and expectations, spreading awareness, aligning policies and regulations, and building local capacity are critical elements to advancing sustained adoption of clean stoves and fuels.3,48the cookstoves sector is burdened with many past examples where low-end stoves  often designed with inadequate consideration of user needs, with little or no testing  were heavily subsidized or given away without proper user training and awareness campaigns, and as a result were abandoned (e.g., 49,50). for example, some clean and e ffi cient stoves are not designed to execute needed tasks, such as baking bread or space heating, leading to continued use of traditional cookstoves alongside the newer technology.51 - 56since a single advanced stove is often insu ffi cient for all the uses performed by the traditional stoves, a broader agenda to meet all household energy needs is needed to avoid residual use of traditional stoves. it is important to better understand the impact of engaging women in the clean cookstove and fuel value chain on sustained adoption rates and impacts of clean stoves and fuels on consumers ' time, income, and educational and employment opportunities. studies are also needed to determine the factors driving clean stove purchase, use, and aspirational change (e.g., attitudes about the function of the kitchen for homes and families including those factors that " pull " families to continue relying on traditional devices and those the " push " them to adopt the new stoves) and to evaluate the e ff ectiveness of various business models, social marketing, and consumer fi nance strategies for achieving sustained adoption of clean stoves and fuels. although progress has been made to establish interim fuel use, emissions, and safety guidelines, further development and adoption of voluntary industry consensus standards is required to provide transparency to governments, donors, investors, and others regarding the potential bene fi ts of di ff erent solutions and to develop certi fi cation procedures, performance benchmarks, and meaningful test infrastructure for the global cookstove market.57such standards can provide incentives for stove and fuel developers to rapidly innovate and improve performance. to support standard development, additional laboratory and fi eld testing of fuel use and emissions is needed, along with laboratory tests that better re fl ect actual fi eld performance. while laboratory measurements can capture performance variation across a wide range of stoves and fuels under controlled table 3. priorities for future research to assess the bene fi ts of adopting clean cookstoves and fuels and to advance sustained adoption of clean cooking solutions globally; many of these topics and research priorities, shown here in alphabetical order, are interlinked
What is the central purpose of this book?
the central purpose of this book is to contribute to a rationalization of the physical, mathematical, and numerical foundations of computer models used to understand and predict the global ocean circulation
On what the presentation is geared toward students and researchers?
the presentation is geared toward students and researchers in ocean and climate science who aim to understand the physical content of the equations used in ocean models and to become exposed to methods for solving these equations
Which model is represented more in traditional construction?
in their traditional construction, z -models represent the most common model class used to simulate the global ocean climate system. future ocean model research and development certainly will evolve beyond the limitations of z -models (see chapter 6
the central purpose of this book is to contribute to a rationalization of the physical, mathematical, and numerical foundations of computer models used to understand and predict the global ocean circulation. the presentation is geared toward students and researchers in ocean and climate science who aim to understand the physical content of the equations used in ocean models and to become exposed to methods for solving these equations. much of the formulation is general, and so applicable to any ocean model. however, for purposes of presenting concrete examples, attention is focused on z -coordinate models and generalizations based on isomorphisms with the z -model structure. in their traditional construction, z -models represent the most common model class used to simulate the global ocean climate system. future ocean model research and development certainly will evolve beyond the limitations of z -models (see chapter 6). nonetheless, their maturity and popularity, and the ease of generalizations beyond them, warrant a thorough discussion. furthermore, their relative simplicity aids in the pedagogical treatment of the subject. it is hoped that this book can partially fill a niche in the literature whereby a (mostly) first principles presentation of ocean climate models is given, with discussions extending from fundamental ocean fluid mechanics to detailed parameterization and discretization issues. this aim is to be distinguished from a book on ocean modeling or a book on ocean physics to do justice to ocean modeling, a book must provide extensive discussions of simulations and their relation to nature's ocean. to do justice to ocean physics, we would need to remove much of what remains fundamental to the model builder yet which can be characterized as state-of-the-art "ocean model engineering." further discussions of theoretical solutions and phenomena would also be required of such a book. to the "uninitiated," some topics in ocean model fundamentals can appear complex and esoteric. this point has contributed to what is arguably a growing distance between scientists who analyze numerical ocean model simulations and scientists who understand details of the model's inner workings. the two groups ideally should be working hand-in-hand, so that model users who compare simulations to observations can provide feedback to educate model builders about what is realistic, and not so realistc, regarding the simulations. likewise, model builders must communicate to the user certain of the model's fundamental aspects, and its limitations, so as to lend perspective and experience to the user. when the model user knows little of the model fundamentals, and the model builder is detached from observations of nature's ocean, models stand the chance of losing credibility, and large-scale observations can lack a rational mechanistic xvi preface
What is the purpose to use it?
environmental education and awareness programs water and sanitation/flood protection
what is the main reason to use it?
barriers to species dispersal; habitat loss, fragmentation, and simplification; spread of tree diseases; insect infestation; of invasive species
what are the areas that are polluted?
pollution of water sources; deterioration of wetlands; loss of connectivity between rivers, wetlands
energy, hydropower flooding of natural habitats near reservoirs; displacement and loss of wildlife; loss of biodiversity; deterioration of water quality; accumulation of vegetation before reservoir filling; upstream and downstream hydrological changes; alteration of fish communities and other aquatic life; invasion of aquatic vegetation and its associated disease vector species; sedimentation of reservoirs; generation of quarries and borrow pits; construction of multiple dams in one river; human resettlement; changes in hydrodynamics creation of compensatory protected areas; species conservation in situ and ex situ; minimization of flooded habitats; water pollution control and vegetation removal; water release management; minimum (ecological) stream flow maintenance year round; construction of fish passages and hatchery facilities; application of fishing regulations; physical removal of containments; biological and mechanical pest control; drawdown of reservoir water levels; watershed management; sediment management techniques; landscape treatment; environmental assessment of cumulative impacts energy (pipelines), transportation (roads), telecommunications (access corridors) barriers to species dispersal; habitat loss, fragmentation, and simplification; spread of tree diseases; insect infestation; of invasive species; human and domestic animal intrusions; runoff, erosion, and landslides; fire generation and natural fire frequency alteration; land use changes; wetlands and stream deterioration; water quality alterations; modifications of indigenous peoples' and local communities' ways of life generation of wildlife corridors to connect habitats; minimization of project footprint; creation of compensatory protected areas; management plans; use of native plant species as barriers to avoid or reduce undesirable intrusions; minimization of access roads and right-of-way width for pipelines; minimization of forest edges; implementation of management and maintenance plans for all routes; revegetation along all routes; right-of-way maintenance; improvement of land use management; elaboration and implementation of zoning plans; environmental education and awareness programs water and sanitation/flood protection coastal erosion downstream from river breakwaters; removal of pollutants by dredging bottom sediment; pollution of water sources; deterioration of wetlands; loss of connectivity between rivers, wetlands, and riparian zones; displacement or loss of wildlife; generation of artificial wetlands; invasions of aquatic weeds and disease vectors; worsening of water quality due to sewage disposal in water bodies; encroachment; land use changes; storm-induced floods within enclosed areas protected by dikes land use management; zoning; execution of pollution controls; water quality monitoring; elaboration and implementation of environmental education and awareness programs; implementation of management plans for wetland areas; maintenance of wildlife corridors, channels, and flooded areas; mechanical control of aquatic weeds; biological control of disease vectors; adequate site selection and engineering design; establishment of physical barriers; adoption of design criteria aimed at discouraging encroachment into natural habitats
What possess the basin and range landscape of south-eastern Arizona?
the basin and range landscape of south-easternarizona possesses a unique diversity of ecological community types with unique fire regimes that may be influenced differently by antecedent climatic conditions
What is the aim of this study?
the aim of this study is to identify the importance of antecedent climatic conditions to wildfire variability (total area burned and total number of fires) across south-eastern arizona
How a correlation analysis will help?
a correlation analysis will help isolate relationships between wildfire and climate at specific lags while a regression analysis will be used to identify which combinations of lagged climate variables have the greatest power at predicting wildfire activity
swetnam 2000; barton et al 2001). the basin and range landscape of south-easternarizona possesses a unique diversity of ecological community types with unique fire regimes that may be influenced differently by antecedent climatic conditions. the aim of this study is to identify the importance of antecedent climatic conditions to wildfire variability (total area burned and total number of fires) across south-eastern arizona. a correlation analysis will help isolate relationships between wildfire and climate at specific lags while a regression analysis will be used to identify which combinations of lagged climate variables have the greatest power at predicting wildfire activity. identification of lagged climate variables strongly related to wildfire variability helps to identify potential causal mechanisms and can be used in a predictive capacity to forecast wildfire activity. study area the study area (fig. 1) is defined by the boundary of arizona climate division number seven. this climate division
The cover of this book consists of what?
the cover of this book consists of some spectacular images of relevance to the global ocean climate system
Where was the largest image taken from?
the largest image was taken from nasa's moderateresolution imaging spectro-radiometer (modis
The MODIS sensor flies aboard what spacecraft?
the modis sensor flies aboard nasa's terra spacecraft
the cover of this book consists of some spectacular images of relevance to the global ocean climate system. the largest image was taken from nasa's moderateresolution imaging spectro-radiometer (modis). the modis sensor flies aboard nasa's terra spacecraft. modis has 36 spectral bands that provide scientists with the opportunity to study many of the earth's terrestrial and oceanic characteristics. here, we see the sea surface temperature (sst) and land surface reflectance (lsr). sst directly affects the overlying atmosphere and thus influences the weather and climate that humans feel. this image was made from data collected during the month of may 2001. the second image, also from modis, is a close-up of the atlantic ocean's gulf stream on may 2, 2001. it illustrates the beautiful eddying features of this powerful current system. such eddies are examples of the ocean's large scale turbulence, which plays an important role in the stirring and mixing of heat, nutrients, and other ocean properties. this image was produced from data collected and processed by the university of wisconsin-madison's modis direct broadcast receiving station. nasa's sea-viewing wide field-of-view sensor (seawifs) has provided some amazing images of the ocean. the island of tasmania, off the southeast coast of australia, is particularly clear in this image taken on november 30, 1999. of oceanographic interest is the large eddy circulating off the east coast of the island. the eddy is highlighted by the phytoplankton it is entraining. we again see the importance of eddying features for transporting ocean properties, including its biology. this image is provided by the seawifs project, nasa/goddard space flight center. during the past decade, oceanographic measurements from satellites have become an essential aspect of oceanographic research. nonetheless, physical limitations of electromagnetic radiation prevent satellites from directly measuring ocean properties beneath the upper few meters of the water column. hence, seagoing oceanographic missions remain an essential part of modern oceanography. this point motivates the image of the wind, waves, and ice taken by gerhard dieckmann of the alfred wegener institute for polar and marine research in bremerhaven, germany. he took this photograph from the rv polarstern, an oceanographic research vessel, as it cruised in the weddell sea. this image shows how powerful the winds can be in the southern ocean. it also illustrates the extreme conditions under which seagoing oceanographers must work, especially in the polar oceans.
What did Law et al. (2003) find?
law et al. (2003) found that ownership types moderated the hr-performance relationship in that the relationship was positive and significant for jvs, but not for soes
What are the consequences of the institutional constraints that are posed on these firms?
the institutional constraints posed on these firms are likely to reduce the positive effects of some best management practices
What does the political and bureaucratic structure in SOEs imply?
for example, the political interference and bureaucratic structure in soes imply that they have a low level of flexibility in managing people
there is substantial variation in the way human resources are managed among different ownership types, industries, and regions in china (ding et al., 2006; zhu warner, 2004). the impact of hrm also is likely to differ among firms. law et al. (2003) found that ownership types moderated the hr-performance relationship in that the relationship was positive and significant for jvs, but not for soes. it is plausible that some types of firms may use their hr practices more effectively than others, given their internal and external contingencies. for example, the political interference and bureaucratic structure in soes imply that they have a low level of flexibility in managing people. the institutional constraints posed on these firms are likely to reduce the positive effects of some best management practices. furthermore, hr managers in soes have less active and strategic roles than those in fies (ding akhtar, 2001; zhu warner, 2004); thus, implementing hr policies and practices may have less of an effect on performance in these firms. law et al. (2003) concluded from their research that for soes, the more powerful the hr departments (and thus the more political the organization), the
What do emerging insights from adaptive and community-based resource management suggest?
emerging insights from adaptive and community-based resource management suggest that building resilience into both human and ecological systems is an effective way to cope with environmental change characterized by future surprises or unknowable risks
What are the implications of these insights?
we argue that these emerging insights have implications for policies and strategies for responding to climate change
What do societies and communities dependent on natural resources need to do?
societies and communities dependent on natural resources need to enhance their capacity to adapt to the impacts of future climate change, particularly when such impacts could lie outside their experienced coping range
emerging insights from adaptive and community-based resource management suggest that building resilience into both human and ecological systems is an effective way to cope with environmental change characterized by future surprises or unknowable risks. we argue that these emerging insights have implications for policies and strategies for responding to climate change. we review perspectives on collective action for natural resource management to inform understanding of climate response capacity. we demonstrate the importance of social learning, specifically in relation to the acceptance of strategies that build social and ecological resilience. societies and communities dependent on natural resources need to enhance their capacity to adapt to the impacts of future climate change, particularly when such impacts could lie outside their experienced coping range. this argument is illustrated by an example of present-day collective action for community-based coastal management in trinidad and tobago. the case demonstrates that community-based management enhances adaptive capacity in two ways: by building networks that are important for coping with extreme events and by retaining the resilience of the underpinning resources and ecological systems.
What is NCF?
japan iron and steel federation and the japan automobile manufacturers association, the nathan cummings foundation (ncf), new york and the fondation hoffmann, geneva which made this meeting and project possible
Who is NCF Program Director?
we have a special debt to peter teague, program director at ncf, for his advice and help. none of the funders necessarily endorses any or all of the resulting paper, of course. as convenor, i am grateful to colleagues in the research project development division and in the office of development alumni relations at lse who nimbly and efficiently helped to put together and to manage the support for this work
What is the conference - calling. How it works?
michael denton and the staff at hartwell house deserve our thanks for providing us with peaceful surroundings in which to meet and for ensuring that the conference - calling all worked faultlessly to enable us to include in the discussions indian and chinese colleagues who were not able to be present in person. finally, i wish to express my thanks to all co - authors for their collegial and intensive engagement
japan iron and steel federation and the japan automobile manufacturers association, the nathan cummings foundation (ncf), new york and the fondation hoffmann, geneva which made this meeting and project possible. we have a special debt to peter teague, program director at ncf, for his advice and help. none of the funders necessarily endorses any or all of the resulting paper, of course. as convenor, i am grateful to colleagues in the research project development division and in the office of development alumni relations at lse who nimbly and efficiently helped to put together and to manage the support for this work. i am also extremely grateful to my colleague johanna mohring, visiting fellow in the mackinder programme, and to dalibor rohac, weidenfeld scholar at the university of oxford, for assisting me in the conduct of the hartwell meeting. michael denton and the staff at hartwell house deserve our thanks for providing us with peaceful surroundings in which to meet and for ensuring that the conference - calling all worked faultlessly to enable us to include in the discussions indian and chinese colleagues who were not able to be present in person. finally, i wish to express my thanks to all co - authors for their collegial and intensive engagement. g. prins london school of economics london april 2010
What evidence is highlighted concerned climate change?
although there is no doubt that recent climate change exacerbates the precarious situation of many relicts and can even drive them to extinction, the accumulating evidence also highlights that its effects can be understood only if we appropriately consider both the abiotic and biotic environments in which these populations occur
Climate relicts persists despite of what?
climate relicts have persisted despite episodes of great stress, irregular recruitment, and a low carrying capacity imposed by their habitat
What do recent research demonstrates?
recent research is demonstrating that the current scientific debate about retreating range limits is burdened with many simplistic notions that do little justice to the great diversity of mechanisms and processes that take place in marginal populations
how are natural populations affected by the different components of climate change? what role do extreme climatic events play? to what extent can heterogeneous landscapes help mitigate future climate change? what can we do to anticipate and possibly mitigate population declines? and, ultimately, how deterministic and "unavoidable" are climate-driven extinction processes? climate relicts represent extremely well-suited models for addressing these key questions concerning the impacts of future climate change on biodiversity. by contrast, recent research is demonstrating that the current scientific debate about retreating range limits is burdened with many simplistic notions that do little justice to the great diversity of mechanisms and processes that take place in marginal populations. although there is no doubt that recent climate change exacerbates the precarious situation of many relicts and can even drive them to extinction, the accumulating evidence also highlights that its effects can be understood only if we appropriately consider both the abiotic and biotic environments in which these populations occur. indeed, climate is often not the most immediate threat to the existence of climate relicts. hence, there are chances that we may, at least to some extent, be able to ensure the continued persistence of climate relicts in a warmer world. summary points 1. many temperate and higher-latitude species worldwide have climate relict populations. these persist in areas where settings contribute to decouple local microclimates from regional trends and mitigate the impact of extreme climatic events. 2. climate relicts have persisted despite episodes of great stress, irregular recruitment, and a low carrying capacity imposed by their habitat. the mechanisms to cope with these constraints differ partly between plants and animals because of differences in their growth strategies, trophic level, and mobility. 3. climate governs the dynamics of relict populations either directly or indirectly through its influence on biotic interactions. three major types of relicts can be identified according to their relationship with their abiotic and biotic environments: a those constrained primarily by climate-driven abiotic factors, b those restricted to areas that are not accessible to antagonistic species, and c those requiring a host or mutualist that is limited by climate. 4. although future climate change represents an undeniable threat for the continued existence of many climate relicts, other drivers of global change (in particular, changed land use) may represent even more immediate causes of population extinction. 5. an improved knowledge of how climate relict populations are formed and maintained will substantially increase our understanding of the likely impacts of climate change on species distributions and our ability to conserve those populations that are most at risk. future issues 1. future empirical work needs to overcome the existing strong taxonomic and geographical bias to derive general principles and to evaluate how transferable results from individual relicts are across biological systems that are intrinsically idiosyncratic.
What are two external sources of influences on the meridonal mode that have been associated with TAV? Cite two examples.
pacific enso and the nao
What is a common mechanism that allows Pacific ENSO and the NAO to exert influence on TAV?
one common mechanism through which they exert their influences on tav is by altering the strength of the northeasterly trade winds in the northern tropical atlantic, which in turn causes changes in the surface latent and sensible heat fluxes
What kind of response does an altered heat flux brought on by Pacific ENSO and the NAO can be seen in the boreal spring?
a maximum sst response in the boreal spring
because the coupled feedbacks involved in tav are much weaker than those in enso, external influences are likely to play an important role. at least two external sources of influences on the meridonal mode have been proposed: pacific enso and the nao. both of these phenomena peak during the boreal winter. one common mechanism through which they exert their influences on tav is by altering the strength of the northeasterly trade winds in the northern tropical atlantic, which in turn causes changes in the surface latent and sensible heat fluxes. the altered heat flux then forces the ocean mixed layer to produce a maximum sst response in the boreal spring.
Which one place getting more water resource explain?
drainage basins kenya is endowed with a large potential of water resources: groundwater, river flows, lakes and oceans
Which one is more important to the water resource?
rainfall is a major water resource in kenya and sustains most of the water resources in the country
Important of rainfall?
rainfall is the main cause of variability in the water balance over space and time, and changes in precipitation have significant implications for hydrology and water resources
drainage basins kenya is endowed with a large potential of water resources: groundwater, river flows, lakes and oceans. the surface water resources are contained within five main drainage basins whose hydrological characteristics are related to moisture availability, rainfall and climate (table 2). except for the water resources in the oceans and lakes, rainfall is a major water resource in kenya and sustains most of the water resources in the country. rainfall is the main cause of variability in the water balance over space and time, and changes in precipitation have significant implications for hydrology and water resources. the frequency of floods and droughts is affected by changes in the year-to-year variability in precipitation and also by changes in short-term rainfall properties (such as storm rainfall intensity). 7 7
What did people do to be thanked
reviewing chapters and providing comments
Who is thanking people
the climate change impacts and adaptation directorate
Wbat organisation are they part of?
natural resources canada
the climate change impacts and adaptation directorate, natural resources canada, gratefully acknowledges the contributions of the following people in reviewing chapters and providing comments: brian abrahamson paul allen john anderson martha anderson shelley arnott doug bancroft sarah baxter gilles belanger lianne bellisario karen bergman martin bergmann andree blais-stevens andy bootsma robin brown jim bruce celina campbell con campbell martin castonguay norm catto allyn clarke jean claude therriault stewart cohen william crawford rob cross denis d'amours mike demuth ray desjardins ken drinkwater patti edwards rich fleming don forbes mike foreman ken frank christopher furgal denis gilbert pierre gosselin steve grasby glen harrison bill harron ted hogg rick hurdle mark johannes mark johnson pam kertland justine klaver ibrahim konuk tanuja kulkarni steven leclair denis lefaivre georgina lloyd don maciver dave mackas kyle mackenzie martha mcculloch joan mcdougall greg mckinnon bill meades bano medhi vanessa milley lorrie minshall ken minns carlos monreal jonathan morris linda mortsch barb o'connell fred page kathryn parlee andrew piggott terry prowse dieter riedel daniel scott john shaw barry smit peter smith john smithers steve solomon colin soskolne dave spittlehouse bob stewart john stone david swann bob taylor harvey thorleifson peggy tsang herb vandermeulen michel vermette anita walker ellen wall david welch elaine wheaton
What are the common climate signals found over broad climatic ecological ranges?
in temperate regions we find positive correlations with summer maximum temperatures and negative correlations with summer precipitation and palmer drought severity indices (pdsi) with no obvious speciesspecific differences
What enables the identification of four sub-regions in the d18O network northern and eastern Central Europe, Scandinavia and the western Mediterranean?
rotated principal component analysis (rpca) and climate field correlations enable the identification of four sub-regions in the d18o network northern and eastern central europe, scandinavia and the western mediterranean
What are the result indicates?
our results indicate that future reconstruction efforts should concentrate on d18o data in the identified european regions
we present the first european network of tree ring d13c and d18o, containing 23 sites from finland to morocco. common climate signals are found over broad climaticecological ranges. in temperate regions we find positive correlations with summer maximum temperatures and negative correlations with summer precipitation and palmer drought severity indices (pdsi) with no obvious speciesspecific differences. regional d13c and d18o chronologies share high common variance in year-to-year variations. long-term variations, however, exhibit differences that may reflect spatial variability in environmental forcings, age trends and/or plant physiological responses to increasing atmospheric co2 concentration. rotated principal component analysis (rpca) and climate field correlations enable the identification of four sub-regions in the d18o network northern and eastern central europe, scandinavia and the western mediterranean. regional patterns in the d13c network are less clear and are timescale dependent. our results indicate that future reconstruction efforts should concentrate on d18o data in the identified european regions. citation: treydte, k., et al. (2007), signal strength and climate calibration of a european tree-ring isotope network, geophys. res. lett. 34 l24302, doi:10.1029/2007gl031106.
What do rural women and men play complementary roles in?
guaranteeing food security
Although rural women and men play complementary roles in guaranteeing food security, what do women tend to play greater roles in?
natural resource management and ensuring nutrition
How do women play greater roles in natural resource management and ensuring nutrition?
women often grow, process, manage and market food and other natural resources, and are responsible for raising small livestock, managing vegetable gardens and collecting fuel and water
although rural women and men play complementary roles in guaranteeing food security, women tend to play a greater role in natural resource management and ensuring nutrition (fao 2003). women often grow, process, manage and market food and other natural resources, and are responsible for raising small livestock, managing vegetable gardens and collecting fuel and water (fao 2003). for example, in southeast asia, women provide up to 90 percent of labour for rice cultivation and in sub-saharan africa they are responsible for 80 percent of food production. men, by contrast, are generally responsible for cash cropping and larger livestock. women's involvement in an agricultural capacity is most common in regions likely to be most adversely affected by the impacts of climate change, particularly sub-saharan africa and asia. in these contexts, responsibility for adaptation is likely to fall on their shoulders - including finding alternative ways to feed their family (cida, 2002). however, statutory and/or customary laws often restrict women's property and land rights and make it difficult for them to access credit and agricultural extension services, while also reducing their incentive to engage in environmentally sustainable farming practices and make long-term investments in land rehabilitation and soil quality. despite these obstacles, recent evidence
How did the 2008 recession impact the building of skyscrapers in London?
in 2006 london had 25 new glass skyscrapers on the books to be built over the coming decade. the 2008 recession saw many of them shelved as developers realized that they could not afford to invest
Did someone predict how the crisis was going to affect the real estate market in the UK?
by summer 2008 lehman brothers, a leading wall street bank, was preparing for a 28% drop in the value of their uk building portfolio
Did you have any ideas of the catastrophic consequences the 2008 crisis was going to have?
we knew, as the first edition of this book is testament to, what was coming
in 2006 london had 25 new glass skyscrapers on the books to be built over the coming decade. the 2008 recession saw many of them shelved as developers realized that they could not afford to invest in a building type that had become albatrosses around the necks of so many major development and funding institutions. they knew it was coming. by summer 2008 lehman brothers, a leading wall street bank, was preparing for a 28% drop in the value of their uk building portfolio, proving that the faulty towers report had been timely and right. we knew, as the first edition of this book is testament to, what was coming.
What is the proportion weather related roadway delays?
up to one-quarter of all roadway delays(53)and an even higher proportion of air delays are weather related, according to american studies
Why the text states that the greatest concern about negative effect on the efficiency by climate change is over shipping in the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence Seaway system?
virtually all scenarios of future climate change project reduced great lakes water levels and connecting channel flows, mainly because of increased evaporation resulting from higher temperatures (references 54 and 55; see also 'water resources' chapter). several studies on implications of reduced water levels for shipping activities in the great lakes(56, 57, 58)have reached similar conclusions: that shipping costs for the principal commodities (iron ore, grain, coal and limestone) are likely to increase because of the need to make more trips to transport the same amount of cargo
Why lake vessels have frequently been forced into 'light loading' in recent years?
indeed, in recent years, lake vessels have frequently been forced into 'light loading' because of lower water levels
all modes of transportation currently experience weather-related service disruptions. for example, up to one-quarter of all roadway delays(53)and an even higher proportion of air delays are weather related, according to american studies. it is virtually impossible to predict with any certainty the number of trip cancellations, diversions or delays that would occur under a changed climate, and what the social costs of these would be. there is a general sense, however, that fewer winter storms would benefit transport operators and the public at large. in contrast, climate change is expected to have a negative effect on the efficiency of some freight operations, because of reduced payloads. the greatest concern is over shipping in the great lakes-st. lawrence seaway system. virtually all scenarios of future climate change project reduced great lakes water levels and connecting channel flows, mainly because of increased evaporation resulting from higher temperatures (references 54 and 55; see also 'water resources' chapter). several studies on implications of reduced water levels for shipping activities in the great lakes(56, 57, 58)have reached similar conclusions: that shipping costs for the principal commodities (iron ore, grain, coal and limestone) are likely to increase because of the need to make more trips to transport the same amount of cargo. indeed, in recent years, lake vessels have frequently been forced into 'light loading' because of lower water levels. for example, in 2001, cargo volumes on the st. lawrence seaway were down markedly when compared to the previous five years, due in part to low water levels.(59)while the prospect of an extended
what is GWPF stands for ?
global warming policy foundation
what are the three-fold distinction outlined by Rahmstorf ?
1) trend sceptics (who deny the global warming trend), (2) attribution sceptics (who accept the trend, but either question the anthropogenic contribution saying it is overstated, negligent or non-existent compared to other factors like natural variation, or say it is not known with sufficient certainty what the main causes are) and (3) impact sceptics (who accept human causation, but claim impacts may be benign or beneficial, or that the models are not robust enough) and/or question the need for strong regulatory policies or interventions
how many countries are  examination of climate scepticism in the print media?
six countries, namely brazil, china, france, india, the united kingdom and the usa
considerable intellectual effort has gone into the discussion about the need to differentiate clearly between the different types of sceptics and scepticism (painter 2011 o'neill and boykoff 2010 washington and cook 2011 ). there are sharp differences between individual sceptics in their levels of scientific repute, their links (or lack of them) to lobby groups and their sources of funding5. nigel lawson and benny peiser of the global warming policy foundation (gwpf) in the uk and senator james inhofe in the usa for example, who all appeared with frequency in our samples, clearly enjoy less scientific credibility than the climate sceptical scientists richard lindzen or freeman dyson. however, too wide a differentiation of sceptics would have stood in the way of the broader, headline results we were seeking. we focused on the marked differences in what climate sceptics are sceptical about. for purposes of simplification, we broadly followed the three-fold distinction outlined by rahmstorf 2004 between (1) trend sceptics (who deny the global warming trend), (2) attribution sceptics (who accept the trend, but either question the anthropogenic contribution saying it is overstated, negligent or non-existent compared to other factors like natural variation, or say it is not known with sufficient certainty what the main causes are) and (3) impact sceptics (who accept human causation, but claim impacts may be benign or beneficial, or that the models are not robust enough) and/or question the need for strong regulatory policies or interventions. this basic three-type taxonomy was applied to an examination of climate scepticism in the print media in six countries, namely brazil, china, france, india, the united kingdom and the usa. the usa and the uk were chosen as the main examples of anglophone countries where climate scepticism is common in the media. france was chosen as an example of a non-anglophone developed country. brazil, china and india were selected as examples of emerging economic and political powers, which play an increasingly important role at climate change negotiations. the main period we monitored were the three months from 19 november 2009 to 18 february 2010. this included 'climategate', but also the copenhagen summit, the controversies surrounding errors in the ipcc reports, a cold winter in many parts of the northern hemisphere, and the formation of the sceptical lobby group, the gwpf in the
Why the combination of the different horizons make the police failure?
the implications for policy design are profound: economic efficiency and political expediency are likely to conflict in climate-change policy, especially where these policy costs are imposed in the future (and faced by future politicians and governments). it is in these circumstances that the case for market-based instruments is especially great
In what is reflected the political expediency?
the political expediency is reflected further in the differential treatment of technologies too: renewables is widely protected from market forces, whereas nuclear, at least in the uk (but not the usa), is not. with a core role for the price of carbon, not only is the technology pork barrel diminished, but two other benefits accrue, too. carbon prices are not narrowly production-based: they address the need to focus on carbon consumption, not just production, as discussed in section iv. they also raise revenue, given that, at least in the short to medium term, carbon is inelastically demanded. what happens to this income effect matters, especially to technology
Is the technological process essential for the climate change?
technological progress is essential to the medium and longer term, carbon revenues provide a potential source of finance in a context where the scope for the expansion of general taxation is very limited, especially in europe. such revenues could be not only ring-fenced, but passed to independent bodies to reduce the scope for lobbying and capture (though not, of course, to eliminate it
these rent-seeking pressures, combined with the different time horizons to which the policies apply, make the policy failure likely to remain high. the implications for policy design are profound: economic efficiency and political expediency are likely to conflict in climate-change policy, especially where these policy costs are imposed in the future (and faced by future politicians and governments). it is in these circumstances that the case for market-based instruments is especially great. almost all climate-change measures benefit from a rising price of carbon, and the price of carbon allows the market to sort out the more efficient supplyand demand-side responses. indeed, it is notable that the technologies which governments have deliberately protected from market forces (such as wind) are precisely those which would not be developed on such a scale in the presence of a carbon price alone. and the political expediency is reflected further in the differential treatment of technologies too: renewables is widely protected from market forces, whereas nuclear, at least in the uk (but not the usa), is not. with a core role for the price of carbon, not only is the technology pork barrel diminished, but two other benefits accrue, too. carbon prices are not narrowly production-based: they address the need to focus on carbon consumption, not just production, as discussed in section iv. they also raise revenue, given that, at least in the short to medium term, carbon is inelastically demanded. what happens to this income effect matters, especially to technology. if technological progress is essential to the medium and longer term, carbon revenues provide a potential source of finance in a context where the scope for the expansion of general taxation is very limited, especially in europe. such revenues could be not only ring-fenced, but passed to independent bodies to reduce the scope for lobbying and capture (though not, of course, to eliminate it).
When did Kjellstrom investigated the daily variability of daily mean 2mtemperature and its changes under changed climatic conditions ?
in a previous study, kjellstrom (2004
What do we look for in those studies ?
here, we look into daily maximum and minimum 2m-temperatures in climate simulations over europe
What are the possibles future effects of changes related to land-surface processes ?
it has been suggested that in a future climate the summer interannual variability of surface temperatures might increase as an effect of changes related to land-surface processes (schar et al., 2004
in a previous study, kjellstrom (2004) investigated daily variability of daily mean 2mtemperature and its changes under changed climatic conditions. here, we look into daily maximum and minimum 2m-temperatures in climate simulations over europe, including their upper and lower percentiles relating to the occurrence of heatwaves and cold spells, respectively. changes of these parameters could also be affected by changes in interannual climate variability. it has been suggested that in a future climate the summer interannual variability of surface temperatures might increase as an effect of changes related to land-surface processes (schar et al., 2004). most of the models used in the prudence consortium show indeed some increase in interannual temperature variability during the summer season, but there are considerable inter-model differences regarding the amplitude, geographical location and seasonal timing of the effect (lenderink et al. 2006; vidale et al. 2006).
What is mean by IPCC?
theintergovernmentalpanelonclimatechange (ipcc) assesses information relevant to the understanding of climate change and explores options for adaptation and mitigation
Describe the IPCC reports?
the ipcc reports communicate uncertainty by using a set of probability terms accompanied by global interpretational guidelines. the judgment literature indicates that there are large differences in the way people understand such phrases, and that their use may lead to confusion and errors in communication. we conducted an experiment in which subjects read sentences from the 2007 ipcc report and assigned numerical values to the probability terms. the respondents' judgments deviated significantly from the ipcc guidelines, even when the respondents had access to these guidelines. these results suggest that the method used by the ipcc is likely to convey levels of imprecision that are too high. we propose an alternative form of communicating uncertainty, illustrate its effectiveness, and suggest several additional ways to improve the communication of uncertainty
Describe climate change?
the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) was established by the world meteorological organization and the united nations environmental programme to gather and assess information relevant to the understanding of climate change and its potential impact, and to explore options for adaptation and mitigation. the panel's conclusions are condensed into assessment reports, which have been instrumental in making climate change an important topic for policymakers and the public (agrawala, 1998; oppenheimer, o'neill, webster, agrawala, 2007; oreskes, 2004). the 2007 nobel prize for peace committee cited the panel's ''efforts to build up and disseminate greater knowledge about man-made climate change, and to lay the foundations for the measures that are needed to counteract such change'' (nobelprize.org, 2008). recent events have pushed the debate about climate change to the top of the public agenda. climate change is considered an important public-policy topic that merits immediate attention (cbs news new york times, 2007). much of the disagreement between the two camps in this debate relates to the uncertainty surrounding the science of climate change and the projections of its models. some critics of the ipcc use this uncertainty strategically; that is, they invoke it as an excuse to dismiss the findings altogether (e.g., begley, 2007). we believe that social scientists specializing in risk assessment and communication can, and should, play a major role in the debate on this important public-policy issue, by ensuring that all sides understand the state of the scientific findings and their underlying uncertainty. to this end, we studied how the public understands the ipcc's communicationofuncertainty.we present resultsof anexperiment that tested how the public interprets the probabilistic statements in the 2007 report and document some of the shortcomings of the methodused currently
theintergovernmentalpanelonclimatechange (ipcc) assesses information relevant to the understanding of climate change and explores options for adaptation and mitigation. the ipcc reports communicate uncertainty by using a set of probability terms accompanied by global interpretational guidelines. the judgment literature indicates that there are large differences in the way people understand such phrases, and that their use may lead to confusion and errors in communication. we conducted an experiment in which subjects read sentences from the 2007 ipcc report and assigned numerical values to the probability terms. the respondents' judgments deviated significantly from the ipcc guidelines, even when the respondents had access to these guidelines. these results suggest that the method used by the ipcc is likely to convey levels of imprecision that are too high. we propose an alternative form of communicating uncertainty, illustrate its effectiveness, and suggest several additional ways to improve the communication of uncertainty. the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) was established by the world meteorological organization and the united nations environmental programme to gather and assess information relevant to the understanding of climate change and its potential impact, and to explore options for adaptation and mitigation. the panel's conclusions are condensed into assessment reports, which have been instrumental in making climate change an important topic for policymakers and the public (agrawala, 1998; oppenheimer, o'neill, webster, agrawala, 2007; oreskes, 2004). the 2007 nobel prize for peace committee cited the panel's ''efforts to build up and disseminate greater knowledge about man-made climate change, and to lay the foundations for the measures that are needed to counteract such change'' (nobelprize.org, 2008). recent events have pushed the debate about climate change to the top of the public agenda. climate change is considered an important public-policy topic that merits immediate attention (cbs news new york times, 2007). much of the disagreement between the two camps in this debate relates to the uncertainty surrounding the science of climate change and the projections of its models. some critics of the ipcc use this uncertainty strategically; that is, they invoke it as an excuse to dismiss the findings altogether (e.g., begley, 2007). we believe that social scientists specializing in risk assessment and communication can, and should, play a major role in the debate on this important public-policy issue, by ensuring that all sides understand the state of the scientific findings and their underlying uncertainty. to this end, we studied how the public understands the ipcc's communicationofuncertainty.we present resultsof anexperiment that tested how the public interprets the probabilistic statements in the 2007 report and document some of the shortcomings of the methodused currently. we propose and demonstrate the efficacyof an alternative reporting format, and conclude with a set of recommendations that could alleviate many of the existing problems and improve communication of the key uncertainties.
How will the climate change affect the atmosphere?
global climate change will alter the trajectory of recovery of stratospheric ozone and, with changes in precipitation and cloud coverage, alter ambient ultraviolet radiation (uvr) and its spectral composition
How will the climate change affect health conditions?
climate change thus has the potential to change the risk of uv-related health outcomes, including cancers
How will the climate change affect agriculture?
climate change may bring new pests, diseases, and weeds into the agricultural system (28). some pests will be able to invade new areas and become increasingly problematic for the maintenance of biodiversity, the functioning of ecosystems, and the profitability of crop production
global climate change will alter the trajectory of recovery of stratospheric ozone and, with changes in precipitation and cloud coverage, alter ambient ultraviolet radiation (uvr) and its spectral composition. additional changes in ambient temperature, precipitation, and cloud coverage will alter sun exposure behavior. climate change thus has the potential to change the risk of uv-related health outcomes, including cancers (27). climate change may bring new pests, diseases, and weeds into the agricultural system (28). some pests will be able to invade new areas and become increasingly problematic for the maintenance of biodiversity, the functioning of ecosystems, and the profitability of crop production. depending on how this effect is managed, increasing use of herbicides and pesticides could lead to greater contamination of some foods and greater human exposure and raise the risk of cancers (29). as climate warms and weather patterns become more erratic, liver cancer, through aflatoxin contamination (30), may become an increasing problem. these fungal metabolites contaminate cereals and pulses; dry, hot conditions can increase the risk of contamination during crop growth, whereas the harvesting and storage of mature crops are at risk of contamination during wet conditions (31).
How do climate change affect our water resources?
climate change may affect our water resources by lowering lake levels, with their maximums earlier and lower than normal
What does lower lake levels means?
lower lake levels would lead to conflicts related to existing and proposed diversions (changnon and glantz 1996), as well as increased shipping costs and possible reductions in hydropower
when do Detailed hydrological model projections for the Great Lakes basin based on the SRES scenarios be available?
detailed hydrological model projections for the great lakes basin based on the sres scenarios are not yet available; however, these are currently being run at the great lakes research laboratory and are expected to become available within the next year
as the impervious pavement-covered surfaces of major urban areas and their suburbs expand, covering soil, natural wetlands and floodplains, watershed dynamics are significantly modified. surface runoff is disrupted6, affecting groundwater resources and increasing the potential for flooding (paul and meyer 2001). freshwater resources, drawn from deep aquifers underlying the region, have been plentiful in the past. however, water is currently being withdrawn from many of these at an unsustainable rate, including those surrounding chicago (jaffe 2001). in an attempt to remedy this problem, some states have regulations on water resource use while other neighboring states, drawing from some of the same water resources, have none. climate change may affect our water resources by lowering lake levels, with their maximums earlier and lower than normal. lower lake levels would lead to conflicts related to existing and proposed diversions (changnon and glantz 1996), as well as increased shipping costs and possible reductions in hydropower (kling et al. 2003; cohen and miller 2001). despite the recent drop in lake levels, no consistent trend towards lower water levels is evident over the last century. however, maximum lake levels for lakes erie and ontario are rising, with the maximum occurring almost a month earlier than the beginning of the lake level record, 140 years ago (lenters 2001). previous hydrological modeling of the potential impact of climate change on future water levels has generally indicated either little change (consistent with what has been observed over the last century) or a decrease in lake levels (cohen and miller, 2001; nast 2001). the latest model projections (figure 1(b), 2(b)) indicate that annual precipitation over the midwest may not change significantly. however, evaporation is expected to increase throughout the region due to warmer temperatures (table iv). during the winter, warmer temperatures decrease the extent and length of ice cover on the lakes. less ice means more open water and therefore a greater area over which water can evaporate into the atmosphere. throughout the year, warmer temperatures also increase evaporation rates as the saturation vapor pressure of air increases with temperature. detailed hydrological model projections for the great lakes basin based on the sres scenarios are not yet available; however, these are currently being run at the great lakes research laboratory and are expected to become available within the next year (croley, pers. comm.). in the meantime, projected changes in precipitation, evaporation, and other hydrological variables from sres-based hadcm3 and pcm calculations appear to support previous findings of drops in lake levels under future change. stream wetland water levels may also drop, affecting water quality as well as groundwater levels. together, the coupled effects of decreases in runoff and increases in irrigation could devastate the streams of illinois and other midwestern
How are motivations discussed?
the focus of this chapter was on how climate information has traditionally been used in two classes of long-range water-management decisions (general system evaluations and flood-risk evaluations). motivations were discussed for using an expanded set of climate information to support both decision processes. expanded climate information might involve the use of paleoclimatic evidence on hydroclimatic conditions, stochastic modeling to augment sequence possibilities, and (or) the incorporation of climate-projection information
How are climatic conditions?
the focus of this chapter was on how climate information has traditionally been used in two classes of long-range water-management decisions (general system evaluations and flood-risk evaluations). motivations were discussed for using an expanded set of climate information to support both decision processes. expanded climate information might involve the use of paleoclimatic evidence on hydroclimatic conditions, stochastic modeling to augment sequence possibilities, and (or) the incorporation of climate-projection information
What is long range water management?
the focus of this chapter was on how climate information has traditionally been used in two classes of long-range water-management decisions (general system evaluations and flood-risk evaluations). motivations were discussed for using an expanded set of climate information to support both decision processes. expanded climate information might involve the use of paleoclimatic evidence on hydroclimatic conditions, stochastic modeling to augment sequence possibilities, and (or) the incorporation of climate-projection information
the focus of this chapter was on how climate information has traditionally been used in two classes of long-range water-management decisions (general system evaluations and flood-risk evaluations). motivations were discussed for using an expanded set of climate information to support both decision processes. expanded climate information might involve the use of paleoclimatic evidence on hydroclimatic conditions, stochastic modeling to augment sequence possibilities, and (or) the incorporation of climate-projection information. paleoclimatic evidence of supply variations and flood events may portray hydrologic possibilities that have not occurred in the instrumental record. this provides motivation to consider a range of hydrologic possibilities beyond those from the instrumental record. evidence that we exist in a changing climate provides further motivation. paleoclimatic evidence about hydrologic conditions offers an accessible source of information for planning. in addition, stochastic modeling techniques offer the opportunity to expand planning assumptions of hydrologic sequences with implications for supply variability (for example, drought possibilities). the use of such techniques requires the implicit belief that the reference period underlying the stochastic model is relevant to the planning future. to date, more attention has been focused on the methods relating climate-projection information to water-supply and demand assumptions. until uncertainty narrows considerably, or until enough time elapses to see which methods best characterize future conditions, there will continue to be an array of reasonable approaches. at this time, it seems safe to say that there * 3 anticipating climate change: available climate information for decisionmaking in long-range planning 21 is no single "best" procedure for considering projected climate information in either class of long-range decisionmaking. questions to management agencies about adapting, physically or operationally, to climate change are likely to continue. in addressing questions on climate change adaptation through time, the establishment of planning assumptions becomes complicated within a context of climate nonstationarity. to review, using traditional planning approaches, planning assumptions are developed relative to a stationary reference climate (that is, the stationary system paradigm) that typically reflects climate from the instrumental record. now consider establishing planning assumptions to reflect future climate change while maintaining the stationary system paradigm. the task involves adjusting planning assumptions based on the instrumental record to reflect the effects of incremental climate change [for example, approaches featured in international joint commission (ijc) (2006) and bureau of reclamation (2008)]. detection and appropriate application of incremental climate change using climate projections (or instrumental records) may be challenging. for example, it may be clear that some regional hydroclimatic conditions are nonstationary and are evolving in a steady fashion (for example, air temperature), thereby making climate change detection and the selection of a stationary regime generally straightforward. for other variables, such detection may be much more difficult because of natural variability within the model projections (or in instrumental records). for example, detecting changes in precipitation climatology is difficult given the large amount of variability that exists at both interannual and multidecadal time scales. to avoid such detection uncertainties, it may be clearer and more appropriate (albeit at the cost of complexity) to frame long-range system evaluations relative to projected planning assumptions consistent with climate projections (that is, the system projection paradigm). in doing so, planning assumptions for water supplies, demands, and constraints would be projected through time, consistent with the transient characteristics of climate projections. the development of such system projections would require the view that the transient aspects in climate projections are credible enough for planning purposes. it would also require the view that hydrologic sequences consistent with climate projections are suitable substitutes for those that might be taken from the instrumental record. if such views are held, then use of this paradigm could allow the questions of adaptation to management agencies to be more easily addressed. for long-range planning practices to advance in incorporating climate projection information, it is clear that further research is necessary to improve our understanding in many areas (chap. 6). two areas are highlighted here: (1) establishing valid climate planning assumptions and assessing impacts in response to global climate change, and (2) determining the potential for precipitation extremes to change and adapting planning for extreme precipitation. the first area is crucial for improving our ability to characterize water-supply assumptions under climate change. the latter is crucial for evaluating flood risk in relation to structural safety and operational flood protection.
What was used to calculate Tropospheric ozone changes?
tropospheric ozone changes were calculated using the giss model ii' chemistry-climate model shindell et al. 2003
Give 3 components of the chemistry?
the chemistry includes hox-nox-ox-co-ch4, hydrocarbon families and peroxyacetylnitrates, and a fairly detailed treatment of organic nitrate and organic peroxide reactions
At what latitudes were discrepancies associated with stratospheric influx?
though there were some discrepancies associated with stratospheric influx at high latitudes
tropospheric ozone changes were calculated using the giss model ii' chemistry-climate model shindell et al. 2003]. the chemistry includes hox-nox-ox-co-ch4, hydrocarbon families and peroxyacetylnitrates, and a fairly detailed treatment of organic nitrate and organic peroxide reactions. it contains complete sources and sinks for its 32 gases. the model was run at 4 by 5 degree horizontal resolution with 23 vertical layers, and the chemistry was fully coupled with the climate model's hydrological cycle and meteorology. as documented previously shindell et al. 2003], that model version gave a fairly good simulation of troposphere ozone for the present day, though there were some discrepancies associated with stratospheric influx at high latitudes. these have a fairly small effect on radiative forcing, however, and minimal influence on the trends reported on here as they do not change with time. the adjusted global annual average radiative forcing due to preindustrial to present-day tropospheric ozone change in that model, 0.30-0.33 w m 2depending on emissions, is in good agreement with the 0.35 +- 0.15 w m 2
which water beta fish required mapping
we first mapped freshwater fish beta diversity at the global scale
where did highest value beta  diversity found
the highest values of beta diversity were found in western usa
where did lowest value beta  diversity found
the lowest values were mostly located in northern eurasia and northern north america
we first mapped freshwater fish beta diversity at the global scale (fig. 1a), i.e. the average difference in species composition, expressed by the sorensen dissimilarity index, between a focal drainage basin and its immediate neighbouring drainage basins bsor-a). the highest values of beta diversity were found in western usa, central and south america, africa, southern eurasia and australia, whereas the lowest values were mostly located in northern eurasia and northern north america (fig. 1a). applying an additive partitioning framework, we then mapped the spatial turnover and nestedness components of beta diversity (fig. 1b,c), respectively bsim-a and bnes-a. although spatial turnover and nestedness were found to contribute similarly to beta diversity on average (average bsor-a 0.47 +- 0.24 sd, average bsim-a 0.27 +- 0.25 sd, average bnes-a 0.21 +- 0.15 sd, n 841 drainage basins), this did not hold for every drainage basin. for 197 drainage basins of 841 (23.4%), spatial turnover contributed, for more
How much the environment seems to increase the risk of organized violence?
empirical studies suggests that the environment at best has a trivial impact on the risk of organized violence
Who support the case for a relation between environment and violence?
reports by think-tanks and ngos are flourishing, and 'even the ipcc
What common example of the relation between climate change and violence can be found in the relevant literature?
few studies that claim a causal connection between environmental change and armed conflict fail to mention farmer-herder clashes in the sahel
recent years have seen a surge in academic publications on whether and how particular environmental conditions and climate characteristics affect the risk of armed conflict (for reviews, see nordas gleditsch, 2007; salehyan, 2008). the question is by no means resolved, although a significant majority of empirical studies suggests that the environment at best has a trivial impact on the risk of organized violence (e.g. buhaug, 2010; raleigh urdal, 2007; theisen, 2008). this fact notwithstanding, alarmist reports by think-tanks and ngos are flourishing, and 'even the ipcc, which rightly prides itself of being a synthesis of the best peer-reviewed science, has fallen prey to relying on secondor third-hand information with little empirical backing when commenting on the implications of climate change for conflict' (nordas gleditsch, 2007: 628). few studies that claim a causal connection between environmental change and armed conflict fail to mention farmer-herder clashes in the sahel. high-profile cases include the border conflict between senegal and mauritania in 1989, the darfur conflict, and recent
What protection assumed a particularly high profile during the 1990s in Latin America and the Caribbean?
during the 1990s international decade for natural disaster reduction, protection of health systems began to assume a particularly high profile in international policy circles in latin america and the caribbean
What is implemented during the construction phase?
during the construction phase, quality assurance procedures are then required to ensure protection measures are implemented
What should be assessed when choosing site locations?
when assessing different site options the choice of location should be informed as much as possible by existing risks from natural hazards
issues in infrastructure protection the planning, design and construction of health facilities needs to take account of and avoid likely physical threat from flood events. the examples of damage to health care infrastructure during times of emergency emphasize the need for guidelines to ensure as far as possible that health care infrastructure is built outside flood zones or designed to function effectively in a flooded environment. existing codes and regulations on the design and construction of facilities may need to be revised and adapted to local requirements, and mitigation objectives should be integrated into every step of the project cycle for new health infrastructure, from project inception to construction (paho, 2003). once appropriate guidelines and regulations are in place, they need to be effectively applied, with coordination of efforts between experts. training and education of a variety of different professions related to the planning, construction and box 4.4 protecting health facilities in latin america and the caribbean during the 1990s international decade for natural disaster reduction, protection of health systems began to assume a particularly high profile in international policy circles in latin america and the caribbean. coordinated largely by paho, health ministries, scientists and architects began to exchange knowledge and ideas on strategies for improving design of new facilities and for the updating or retrofitting of existing infrastructure to reduce the impact of hazards (poncelet and de ville de goyet, 1996). central to this strategic formulation have been economic arguments over cost-effectiveness, as well as the potential to save lives. in hazard prone areas it is claimed that 'for each dollar invested in mitigation before a disaster strikes, enormous savings will be made in losses prevented' (paho, 2000, p4). the process has continued since the close of the decade, with the publication of guidelines for the protection of new health facilities from natural disasters (paho, 2003). the document argues that measures to ensure continuing functionality of key areas of hospitals when they are most needed should be part of every newly built facility. the guidelines suggest that mitigation work should begin in the pre-investment phase, when protection and specific performance objectives need to be formulated for the new facility. when assessing different site options the choice of location should be informed as much as possible by existing risks from natural hazards. facility design then needs to take an integrated approach to mitigating risks of both structural and non-structural damage: a process that requires coordination of expertise from different professions. during the construction phase, quality assurance procedures are then required to ensure protection measures are implemented. the guidelines that were compiled by paho for latin america and the caribbean could equally be applied to other regions where the need for integration of disaster mitigation in planning, construction and management of health facilities is just as great.
What is the relationship between predictor and response variables often?
nonlinear and complex
What type of approach did they specifically use?
tri-model
What may be superior for presence-only or relatively rare species?
maxent
we found that a statistical-empirical approach with a combination of decision trees effectively models the effects of climate, soil, elevation, and landscape predictors on the abundances of the tree species and predicts potential changes in the distribution of potential habitats for future climates (prasad and others 2006 iverson and others 2008b ). because the relationship between predictor and response variables is often nonlinear and complex (austin 2002 ), they violate most statistical assumptions and traditional parametric statistical approaches generally capture these patterns poorly. therefore, newer machine-learning, data-driven approaches were used to predict and provide valuable insights into the important predictors influencing species distributions. specifically, we used a 'tri-model' approach: randomforest (about 1000 decision trees with resampled data and randomized subset of predictors) for prediction, bagging trees (averaging of 30 decision trees with resampling) for assessing the stability among individual decision trees, and a single decision tree to interpret the results if the stability among trees proved satisfactory (prasad and others 2006 ). further, we use the randomforest intermediate products to tease apart much about each variable's impact within the models. to our knowledge, this tri-model approach is unique among researchers to maximize the statistical value of the analyses. ensemble methods, which combine the results of many different statistical procedures or many different formulations of the output data, have been shown to improve predictions in some cases (for example, araujo and new 2007 franklin 2009 ). our experience has shown that great caution is needed when selecting a given modeling technique, and the outputs must be evaluated independently before an ensemble approach is considered. the use of proven techniques (many of which are only recently developed) should be used when 'fusing' inputs or outputs for species distribution modeling. for modeling of species with ample abundance data (like fia), we have found that randomforest-bagging decision tree analysis is best for extrapolating to future climates (breiman 2001 prasad and others 2006 ), whereas for presence-only or relatively rare species, maxent may be superior (elith and others 2010 ). in addition, generalized boosting methods and adaptive splines (mars) may be appropriate for some types of data and in some situations. these choices appear to be supported by the thorough review of sdms by franklin 2009 ). as stated by austin 2002 ), model types and variables must always be selected based on sound ecological concepts. the above statements should not be construed to mean nonstatistical approaches are inappropriate--in fact, because of future data uncertainties as well as problems in model parameterization, a plurality of approaches is recommended.
what is the general conclusion presented?
a general conclusion on the basis of present understanding is that for market and social systems there is considerable adaptation potential, but the economic costs are potentially large, largely unknown and unequally distributed, as is the adaptation potential itself
whether the adaptation potential is much greaterr or lesser?
for biological and geophysical systems, the adaptation potential is much less than in social and market systems
what will reduce the risk associated with key vulnerabilities?
actions to mitigate climate change and reduce greenhouse gas emissions will reduce the risk associated with most key vulnerabilities
a general conclusion on the basis of present understanding is that for market and social systems there is considerable adaptation potential, but the economic costs are potentially large, largely unknown and unequally distributed, as is the adaptation potential itself. for biological and geophysical systems, the adaptation potential is much less than in social and market systems. there is wide agreement that it will be much more difficult for both human and natural systems to adapt to larger magnitudes of global mean temperature change than to smaller ones, and that adaptation will be more difficult and/or costly for faster warming rates than for slower rates. [19.4.1] several conclusions appear robust across a diverse set of studies in the integrated assessment and mitigation literature [19.4.2, 19.4.3]. * given the uncertainties in factors such as climate sensitivity, regional climate change, vulnerability to climate change, adaptive capacity and the likelihood of bringing such capacity to bear, a risk-management framework emerges as a useful framework to address key vulnerabilities. however, the assignment of probabilities to specific key impacts is often very difficult, due to the large uncertainties involved. * actions to mitigate climate change and reduce greenhouse gas emissions will reduce the risk associated with most key vulnerabilities. postponement of such actions, in contrast, generally increases risks. * given current atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations (ipcc, 2007a) and the range of projections for future climate change, some key impacts (e.g., loss of species, partial deglaciation of major ice sheets) cannot be avoided with high confidence. the probability of initiating some large-scale events is very likely to continue to increase as long as greenhouse gas concentrations and temperature continue to increase.
What accelerate erosion while soil resources has been degraded?
when combined with removal or in situ burning of crop residues
What are some examples of specific and compatible management component?
pest and weed control, nutrient management strategies, rotation crops, appropriately scaled implements
Residue cover prevent what?
residue cover prevents aggregate breakdown, and thus crust formation, which is caused by direct raindrop impact as well as by rapid wetting, and drying of soils
the use of conventional farming practices based on extensive tillage, especially when combined with removal or in situ burning of crop residues, has accelerated erosion while the soil resource base has been steadily degraded montgomery, 2007 ). despite the availability of improved crop varieties with increased yield potential, the optimum production is not attained generally because of poor crop management reynolds and tuberosa, 2008 ). cropping systems will thus have to be more robust and resilient to buffer extreme weather events, that is, drought and flooding. new agricultural practices will not only have to prevent further soil degradation but also improve the resilience of the system while reducing production costs. conservation agriculture has been proposed as a set of management principles that assures a more sustainable agricultural production and reducing productions costs while increasing profitability. it combines reduced tillage, retention of adequate levels of crop residues maintaining soil surface cover and crop rotations. these conservation agriculture principles are applicable to a wide range of crop production systems; however, the application of conservation agriculture will vary with climate, biophysical soil characteristics, system management conditions, and farmer circumstances. specific and compatible management components (e.g., pest and weed control, nutrient management strategies, rotation crops, appropriately scaled implements) will need to be identified through adaptive research with active farmer involvement. improved agronomic management can improve soil quality and make cropping systems more resilient to changing environmental conditions. conservation agriculture, based on minimum tillage, crop residue retention and crop rotation, can improve infiltration and reduce evaporation compared to practices involving conventional tillage, and zero tillage without retention of adequate levels of crop residue verhulst et al. 2010 ). the reduction in tillage and increased carbon input in conservation agriculture result in more stable aggregates bronick and lal, 2005 ). residue cover prevents aggregate breakdown, and thus crust formation, which is caused by direct raindrop impact as well as by rapid wetting, and drying of soils
when did they report that the ice at the North Pole had melted at an unprecedented rate?
in august 2008 scientists reported that the ice at the north pole had melted at an unprecedented rate over the summer
when the Artic would be ice free?
arctic could be ice free by 2013
How much area would have loss of ice?
loss of more than a million square kilometres of ice
in august 2008 scientists reported that the ice at the north pole had melted at an unprecedented rate over the summer, leading to a dire warning that if this rate of melt continues the arctic could be ice free by 2013. 2 satellite images showed that a large storm over the beaufort sea at the end of july 2008 had caused the sea ice to break up dramatically, resulting in the loss of more than a million square kilometres of ice, more than the record-breaking losses of summer 2007. in 2003, when the first edition manuscript of this book was submitted, computer models of ice melts showed that the arctic ice was predicted to last until 2070. current models and imaging now show that the sea ice may only have a few more years before it disappears completely other than a few outcrops of islands near greenland and canada. some put this as soon as 2013. this will have huge consequences for weather and climate and, of course, sea levels. the arctic ice melts are the first and most obvious large-scale indicator that global warming is happening far more rapidly and more dramatically than previously predicted.
What is the LMDDZ4 General Circulation Model?
the lmdz4 general circulation model is the atmospheric component of the ipsl-cm4 coupled model which has been used to perform climate change simulations for the 4th ipcc assessment report
Description of the tropical Hadley-Walker cycle?
the main aspects of the model climatology (forced by observed sea surface temperature) are documented here, as well as the major improvements with respect to the previous versions, which mainly come form the parametrization of tropical convection. a methodology is proposed to help analyse the sensitivity of the tropical hadley-walker circulation to the parametrization of cumulus convection and clouds
Describe Emanuel's plan?
the emanuel's scheme improves the representation of the hadley-walker circulation, with a relatively stronger and deeper large scale vertical ascent over tropical continents, and suppresses the marked patterns of concentrated rainfall over oceans. thanks to the regime sorted analyses, these differences are attributed to intrinsic differences in the vertical distribution of convective heating, and to the lack of self-inhibition by precipitating downdraughts in tiedtke's parametrization
the lmdz4 general circulation model is the atmospheric component of the ipsl-cm4 coupled model which has been used to perform climate change simulations for the 4th ipcc assessment report. the main aspects of the model climatology (forced by observed sea surface temperature) are documented here, as well as the major improvements with respect to the previous versions, which mainly come form the parametrization of tropical convection. a methodology is proposed to help analyse the sensitivity of the tropical hadley-walker circulation to the parametrization of cumulus convection and clouds. the tropical circulation is characterized using scalar potentials associated with the horizontal wind and horizontal transport of geopotential (the laplacian of which is proportional to the total vertical momentum in the atmospheric column). the effect of parametrized physics is analysed in a regime sorted framework using the vertical velocity at 500 hpa as a proxy for large scale vertical motion. compared to tiedtke's convection scheme, used in previous versions, the emanuel's scheme improves the representation of the hadley-walker circulation, with a relatively stronger and deeper large scale vertical ascent over tropical continents, and suppresses the marked patterns of concentrated rainfall over oceans. thanks to the regime sorted analyses, these differences are attributed to intrinsic differences in the vertical distribution of convective heating, and to the lack of self-inhibition by precipitating downdraughts in tiedtke's parametrization. both the convection and cloud schemes are shown to control the relative importance of large scale convection over land and ocean, an important point for the behaviour of the coupled model. 1 a great amount of effort has been spent in the past few years by climate modellers to prepare improved climate models suited to climate change simulations, in support of the 4th assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc). because of uncertainties in radiative forcing and because of climate internal variability, the observed twentieth century climate change does not yet provide a strong constraint on climate models sensitivity (wigley et al. 1997 gregory et al. 2005 ). to improve our confidence in climate change projections, one can use however the climate variations observed in the past decades or paleoclimate records in order to identify key mechanisms
What is the timescale used for the numerical simulations?
the original time scale
What is the timescale used for the stochastic model for barotropic equations?
a coarse-grained time scale
How will the use of the coarse-grained time scale be denoted?
we will denote by t e t the coarse-grained time scale
the results of the numerical simulations reported above can be used to answer the following question that we have left open so far. how do we identify the parameters - wk, gk, ok, and e in the stochastic model assumption in (3.14)? we discuss this point now and also indicate how the solution of the stochastic model equations for the climate variables alone should be compared to the results of the numerical simulations for those variables. it is important to point out first that the numerical simulations are of course performed in the original time scale t whereas the stochastic model for barotropic equations in (3.17) is formulated in a coarse-grained time scale obtained by setting t - e t for the present discussion it is essential to distinguish the two time scales, and we will denote by t e t the coarse-grained time scale. thus, we write the last equation in (3.17), which we will need in a moment, as d wk i e hku d t - i e kxu - k)wk d t 1 e 
What is the purpose of IPCC?
with regard to wider organisational learning, studies by siebenhuner (2002, 2003) and tonn (2007) offer a positive view of how the ipcc has been governed and how it has learned
Who is argues that the evolution of the IPCC?
siebenhuner (2003) argues that the evolution of the ipcc has led to "a decreasing as skodvin remarked presciently in 2000
What are the difficulties of science policy?given the reason?
maintaining scientific integrity and quality control, whilst retaining political credibility and salience - the classic twin goals of a science-policy boundary organisation (guston, 2001) - is not easy
with regard to wider organisational learning, studies by siebenhuner (2002, 2003) and tonn (2007) offer a positive view of how the ipcc has been governed and how it has learned. siebenhuner (2003) argues that the evolution of the ipcc has led to "a decreasing as skodvin remarked presciently in 2000: "... using information from non-published sources may compromise the scientific authority the ipcc has gained over the years it has been in operation" (skodvin, 2000b: 414). maintaining scientific integrity and quality control, whilst retaining political credibility and salience - the classic twin goals of a science-policy boundary organisation (guston, 2001) - is not easy.
Which country has one of the safest municipal drinking water supplies in the world? USA
the united states has one of the safest municipal drinking water supplies in the world
What percentage of the population depends totally or partially on untreated private wells or other private sources for drinking water? about 15%
however, about 15% of the population relies fully or in part on untreated private wells or other private sources for their drinking water
What is associated with most drinking water outbreaks in the United States? is associated with untreated or improperly treated groundwater
the majority of drinking water outbreaks in the united states are associated with untreated or inadequately treated groundwater and distribution system deficiencies
drinking water although the united states has one of the safest municipal drinking water supplies in the world, water-related outbreaks (more than one illness case linked to the same source) still occur.33 public drinking water systems provide treated water to approximately 90% of americans at their places of residence, work, or schools.34 however, about 15% of the population relies fully or in part on untreated private wells or other private sources for their drinking water.35 these private sources are not regulated under the safe drinking water act.36 the majority of drinking water outbreaks in the united states are associated with untreated or inadequately treated groundwater and distribution system deficiencies.33, 37
What are landscape assessment?
 the following components of landscape assessment, land management planning, and adaptation design are relevant and feasible at the scale of large basins that would encompass multiple national forests and other lands (table 1): * defining scenarios of exposure of landscapes to climate changes, such as increased heat, changes in rainfall and snowfall, etc. * species ranges and vulnerability, and general locations of susceptible plant and animal populations of particular concern
What is land management planning?
 the following components of landscape assessment, land management planning, and adaptation design are relevant and feasible at the scale of large basins that would encompass multiple national forests and other lands (table 1): * defining scenarios of exposure of landscapes to climate changes, such as increased heat, changes in rainfall and snowfall, etc. * species ranges and vulnerability, and general locations of susceptible plant and animal populations of particular concern
What is design adaptation?
 the following components of landscape assessment, land management planning, and adaptation design are relevant and feasible at the scale of large basins that would encompass multiple national forests and other lands (table 1): * defining scenarios of exposure of landscapes to climate changes, such as increased heat, changes in rainfall and snowfall, etc. * species ranges and vulnerability, and general locations of susceptible plant and animal populations of particular concern
magnitude and spatial variation of future precipitation are also important, but less certain and more complex than for temperature (solomon et al. 2007). each thermal zone can contain all moisture environments from wet to dry. vegetation transitions along that gradient from closed cover (forest, chaparral, etc.) to open (woodlands, semiarid to arid shrub-grass). the size of a "homogeneous" unit is largest in the center of a biome and becomes smaller as it merges with neighboring biomes. microsites based on moisture are smaller and more sharply defined in the west than in the east. inferring moisture trends can be difficult owing to normal climatic variability caused by phenomena such as the el nino-southern oscillation (<1 decade), pacific decadal oscillation, and atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (>2 decades for the latter two). multiple national forest scale -- landscape assessment, land management planning, and adaptation design are most effective if they are developed for specific spatial scales. in this and the following two sections, various aspects of these topics are summarized with respect to spatial scale. these summaries are provided to generate ideas and are not intended as a comprehensive list. the following components of landscape assessment, land management planning, and adaptation design are relevant and feasible at the scale of large basins that would encompass multiple national forests and other lands (table 1): * defining scenarios of exposure of landscapes to climate changes, such as increased heat, changes in rainfall and snowfall, etc. * species ranges and vulnerability, and general locations of susceptible plant and animal populations of particular concern. * primary beneficial uses of water, such as fish populations, municipal water supplies, energy generation, and recreation. * expected changes in regional demographics, and how they could affect the demand for water, recreation, and other services, and how trends in demand could result in cumulative effects to valued resources. * patterns of land ownership and jurisdiction that control the decision space for adaptive responses and where stakeholders are crucial to comprehensive solutions. national forest and ranger district scales -- these components of landscape assessment, land management planning, and adap tation design are relevant and feasible at the scale of subbasins, individual national forests, and one or a few ranger districts (table 1):
To what are the increases in precipitation shown by ECHAM5-MM5 simulation similar to?
the echam5-mm5 simulation (fig. 15c) shows increases in precipitation that are generally similar to the second downscaling method (i.e., including the effects of circulation
What do contour lines indicate?
contour lines indicate the change in 500-hpa heights, showing a shift in the large-scale circulation to a more onshore flow
What effect will the circulation shift from the southwest to westerly have?
thus, the circulation shift from the southwest to westerly, which enhances the orographic effect over the north-south ridges in washington and oregon, would have the opposite effect for the northwest-southeast british columbia ridges
the echam5-mm5 simulation (fig. 15c) shows increases in precipitation that are generally similar to the second downscaling method (i.e., including the effects of circulation). contour lines indicate the change in 500-hpa heights, showing a shift in the large-scale circulation to a more onshore flow. the magnitude of the precipitation increase in the echam5-mm5 simulation is similar to the result for statistical downscaling (fig. 15b), but the region of increased precipitation extends farther south along the full cascade range into oregon. similar increases are also seen for the olympic mountains and the coastal mountains of southern oregon and northern california. to the north, there is a decrease over vancouver island and the british columbia coast range. these mountain ridges follow a southeast-northwest line as opposed to the north-south line of the ridges in washington and oregon. thus, the circulation shift from the southwest to westerly, which enhances the orographic effect over the north-south ridges in washington and oregon, would have the opposite effect for the northwest-southeast british columbia ridges. using observations and mm5 simulations, leung et al. (2003) have shown that the southwesterly flow associated with el nino reduce the orographic precipitation along the north-south cascade range, despite the increased moisture flux associated with southwesterly flow. in contrast, east of the cascade range, rainfall increases during el nino. the results above suggest that similar interactions between orography and the large-scale flow will also be important under climate change. statistical downscaling methods may be able to capture some of these effects. however, because the range of conditions simulated in future climate scenarios may not be fully represented by the historic record, and because orographic precipitation involves dynamic and thermodynamic processes at very small scales, a regional climate model is a more appropriate tool for capturing these interactions.
What does probabilistic analyses of the sensitivity of global temperatures to increases in the atmospheric stock of GHGs indicate?
bau emissions could irreversibly commit us, this century, to 5oc warming or more
What is a change of 5oC is comparable to?
a change of 5oc is comparable to the difference between temperatures today and temperatures 10-12,000 years ago, when most of northern europe and north america were under hundreds of metres of ice
What will be the affect of a further 5oC?
a further 5oc would transform the earth's physical geography, putting economies and societies under severe pressure
but bau climate change is most likely to commit us to more than 1-2degc warming as this century progresses, potentially much more. the consequences of this distinguish the structure of the risks posed by climate change from those posed by emission reductions. recent probabilistic analyses of the sensitivity of global temperatures to increases in the atmospheric stock of ghgs indicate that bau emissions could irreversibly commit us, this century, to 5oc warming or more (ipcc, 2007b; meinshausen, 2006; murphy et al ., 2004). a change of 5oc is comparable to the difference between temperatures today and temperatures 10-12,000 years ago, when most of northern europe and north america were under hundreds of metres of ice. a further 5oc would transform the earth's physical geography, putting economies and societies under severe pressure.
What was the period used for data analysis?
1990- 1999
From when the AIRS data was available?
from august 2002
What were the three different ''observational'' estimates?
airs, ncep, and ecmwf
we evaluate model simulations of the vertical distribution of zonal-mean, annual-mean climatology of temperature and water vapor. comparison of model data and reanalysis data is done for the same time period: 1990- 1999. since airs data are only available starting from august 2002, the comparison between models and airs data is only done for four years (august 2002-july 2006). however, previous studies pierce et al. 2006] indicate that the shorter record of airs data does not give rise to significant sampling errors when considering the zonal, annual mean climatology. in this section we compare the ensemble mean of the 16 cmip3 models with three different ''observational'' estimates: airs, ncep, and ecmwf. we present latitudeheight cross sections of differences between the ensemblemean model and observations. plots for individual models are given in figures s1 and s2 in the auxiliary material.1
What heat related illnesses extreme heat will cause and affect the morality rates?
fatigue, exhaustion, heat rash, cramps and edema, as well as heat stroke and sunstroke
What are factors increase the risks of heat-related illnesses?
old age, medication use (especially anticholinergic and psychotropic medications), obesity, previous heat injury and skin disorders
Why studies suggest that the relationship can be difficult to quantify of heat-related health effects reflected in hospital admissions?
because ambulance and hospital admission records are presently not designed to capture such data
as well as affecting mortality rates, extreme high temperatures would also influence a range of heatrelated illnesses. direct impacts of extreme heat include heat fatigue, exhaustion, heat rash, cramps and edema, as well as heat stroke and sunstroke. indirect impacts, such as pre-existing health conditions exacerbated by extreme heat, cover a wide range of circulatory, respiratory and nervous system problems.(30)factors that increase the risk of heat-related illnesses include old age, medication use (especially anticholinergic and psychotropic medications), obesity, previous heat injury and skin disorders.(31)heat-related illnesses place additional stress on health infrastructure and can cause significant economic costs.(30)studies suggest that, although heat-related health effects are reflected in hospital admissions see box 2), the relationship can be difficult to quantify because ambulance and hospital admission records are presently not designed to capture such data. in the far north, summers tend to be shorter and cooler, and people and animals are acclimatized to lower temperatures than those characteristic of southern canada.(32)therefore, what constitutes a health-threatening heat wave in the northern territories may be quite different than in southern canada. although cold snaps will continue to be a problem in the future,(33, 34)researchers project that the frequency of extreme cold events will decrease, with resultant benefits for the health care sector. throughout canada, during the second half of the 20th century, there were many more deaths due to excessive cold than from excessive heat (2 875 versus 183, respectively, between 1965 and 1992).(17)
Do climate change increase the chances of a car accident?
heavy rainfall may increase the probability of a critical error or the risk that a small error has cascading effects that in turn generate a crash (perhaps the car begins to fishtail, setting off a multi-car accident
What is the major central challenge addressed by the literature?
the central empirical challenge addressed by the literature to date has been to quantify this effect
Do climatic conditions alone cause conflict in social interactions?
climatic conditions never cause conflict alone, but changes in climate can alter the conditions under which certain social interactions occur and thus have the potential to change the likelihood that conflict results
climatic conditions never cause conflict alone, but changes in climate can alter the conditions under which certain social interactions occur and thus have the potential to change the likelihood that conflict results. the situation is similar to the rise in car accident rates during rainy days. car accidents themselves are almost always due to some form of driver or mechanical error; however, heavy rainfall may increase the probability of a critical error or the risk that a small error has cascading effects that in turn generate a crash (perhaps the car begins to fishtail, setting off a multi-car accident). without the possibility of driver or mechanical errors, rainfall would have no effect on car accident rates, but without rainfall, there would still be some accidents. similarly, climatic conditions are neither necessary nor sufficient for conflicts to occur, but changes in climatic conditions could have measurable impact on the probability and intensity of conflict, holding other conflict-related factors fixed. the central empirical challenge addressed by the literature to date has been to quantify this effect.
How many unique haplotypes did the Proceratophrys mtDNA dataset contain?
the proceratophrys mtdna dataset contained 43 unique haplotypes
What helped to provide evidence of strong geographic structure as seen in (Fig. 2)?
the lack of shared sequences between localities and the clustering of sympatric haplotypes within a statistical parsimony network provided evidence of strong geographic structure (fig. 2
What was Templeton et al.'s (1992) network algorithm unable to do?
templeton et al.'s (1992) network algorithm was unable to connect all sequences into a single haplotype cluster under the assumption of no multiple hits at any given segregating site
the proceratophrys mtdna dataset contained 43 unique haplotypes. the lack of shared sequences between localities and the clustering of sympatric haplotypes within a statistical parsimony network provided evidence of strong geographic structure (fig. 2). templeton et al.'s (1992) network algorithm was unable to connect all sequences into a single haplotype cluster under the assumption of no multiple hits at any given segregating site. instead, haplotypes formed four major geographic groups: a central group of sequences from ' agua azul; a northwestern group of haplotypes from maranguape; and two southern groups--one with a subset of haplotypes from frei caneca, and another with remaining haplotypes from frei caneca, brejo da madre de deus, brejo dos cavalos, and tapacur'a.
What type of tree has high genetic diversity?
mountain birch is a strongly selfincompatible, long-lived perennial woody species, with winddispersed pollen and seeds, such characteristics all presuming a potential for high genetic diversity
Who said that Mountain birch has high genetic dicersity?
myking (2002), while evaluating the genetic resources of forest
How do you determine the inheritance in a tetraploid?
the only safe way to determine the mode of inheritance in a tetraploid is by analysing offspring of experimental crosses
origin of polyploidy in the species the difficulties associated with the taxonomy of the genus betula are, in part, due to the high level of hybridization between the different species (walters, 1964; jonsell, 2000) and the question of the origin of polyploidy in b. pubescens is not yet solved. the only safe way to determine the mode of inheritance in a tetraploid is by analysing offspring of experimental crosses. here, the hw equilibrium observed in the three populations for most loci, under both rces and rcds is compatible with a model of random segregation of alleles at meiosis. although disomic inheritance cannot be excluded, we found that considering the species as autopolyploid was the most suitable way to analyse the data. genetic diversity within and among populations at different elevations the three populations exhibited high levels of genetic diversity within populations and low level of variation among populations. this is a general pattern observed in the majority of tree species, presumably because of their great dispersal abilities of pollen and seeds (kremer, 1994; hamrick godt, 1996). subsequent high gene flow will not only tend to homogenize the genetic variation among populations, but also to increase the genetic diversity within populations, as it makes them less likely to lose novel or rare alleles through drift or bottlenecks. mountain birch is a strongly selfincompatible, long-lived perennial woody species, with winddispersed pollen and seeds, such characteristics all presuming a potential for high genetic diversity. myking (2002), while evaluating the genetic resources of forest
In practical terms, the ideal of high-quality data must be considered in the context of trade-offs between which two factors?
however, the ideal of high-quality data has to be considered in context. in practical terms, there may be a trade-off between optimization of the accuracy of data gathering and the need to provide a timely response to health impacts
What is the prerequisite for accurate disease surveillance during floods and needs assessment?
good baseline data is a prerequisite for accurate disease surveillance during floods and needs assessment
Genuine communication of information to the public should be done in what kind of manner?
the section on warning and evacuation has highlighted the importance of genuine communication of information to the public in a meaningful and accessible manner
the chances of effective response to health risks are greatly enhanced by reliable information on the health needs of the population and the rehabilitation needs of health, water and sanitation systems damaged by floods. good baseline data is a prerequisite for accurate disease surveillance during floods and needs assessment. however, the ideal of high-quality data has to be considered in context. in practical terms, there may be a trade-off between optimization of the accuracy of data gathering and the need to provide a timely response to health impacts. the other key aspect of information is communication. the section on warning and evacuation has highlighted the importance of genuine communication of information to the public in a meaningful and accessible manner. this applies to health promotion in
What is mitigation about in reference to the paragraph?
mitigation is about preventing or limiting the occurrence of climate change
What does mitigation focus on?
as such, mitigation focuses on tackling the causes of climate change: the increase of greenhouse gases (ghgs) (lambrou and piana 2006
Has there been little or much genderfocused work that specifically looks at climate change mitigation?
to date there has been little genderfocused work that specifically looks at climate change mitigation
while adaptation has been described as changes in "processes or structures to moderate or offset potential dangers or to take advantage of opportunities associated with changes in climate" (lambrou and piana 2006: 8), mitigation is about preventing or limiting the occurrence of climate change. as such, mitigation focuses on tackling the causes of climate change: the increase of greenhouse gases (ghgs) (lambrou and piana 2006). to date there has been little genderfocused work that specifically looks at climate change mitigation. this may be due to the seemingly 'technical' or 'scientific' nature of mitigation as being about reducing ghgs. however, as it is now generally accepted that human behaviour is driving climate change, analysis and future work around mitigation must also be gender-sensitive. the first part of this section will discuss mitigation as defined above, with an emphasis on decision-making. part two will look at ensuring gender equitable access to technologies in mitigation strategies, while the third part will focus on gendering transport and climate change mitigation work.
Which barrier is essential for protecting the Rotterdam Harbour and the tidal river against flooding?
the maeslant barrier (figure 4) is essential in the protection of the rotterdam harbour and tidal river area against flooding
What is the maximum closing frequency of the barrier according to the Port Authority?
according to the rotterdam port authority a maximum closing frequency of one per year is acceptable
the maeslant barrier (figure 4) is essential in the protection of the rotterdam harbour and tidal river area against flooding. in this region, the dikes are designed to withstand water levels that have a probability of occurrence between 1/10,000 and 1/4000 annually. to meet this safety level, the barrier closes if the water level at the outlet of the waterway exceeds 3 m or exceeds 2.90 m upstream at dordrecht. the return period of such an event is approximately 10 years. rising sea level implies that the barrier will close more often. however, closing the maeslant barrier hinders navigation to and from the rotterdam harbour. according to the rotterdam port authority a maximum closing frequency of one per year is acceptable. this is considered an atp. the closing frequency of the maeslant barrier depends on the sea water level, the duration of storm events, and the discharge of the rivers. once closed, the discharge of the rivers and the period the gate is closed determine the water level rise landward of the barrier, causing a back-water effect and forcing parts of the river flow to follow a route more south into the southwest estuary. figure 4 shows that an 85-cm sea level rise would mean that the barrier would close approximately once every year. another atp is the maximum sea level rise the barrier has been designed for, which is 50 cm.
When did leaf shedding begin?
leaf shedding began earlier in all of the ringporous species, but proceeded at a slower rate than in diffuse-porous species
What should be noted?
it should be noted that certain quercus species are marcescent and retain senesced leaves throughout the winter, thus fig. 2 may under-represent the rate of senescence for some quercus spp
water loss along this pathway may be the consequence of maintaining a short pathway into stem portions where cavitation occurs, thus facilitating a reversal of embolism and a recovery of hydraulic conductivity (grace 1993; milburn 1993). leaf shedding in temperate deciduous species may occur prematurely if soil moisture is particularly scarce (hatton and wu 1995; d.e. pataki and r. oren, unpublished data), but is typically controlled by phenological interactions with environmental cues (borchert 1992). in this study, leaf shedding began earlier in all of the ringporous species, but proceeded at a slower rate than in diffuse-porous species (fig. 2). it should be noted that certain quercus species are marcescent and retain senesced leaves throughout the winter, thus fig. 2 may under-represent the rate of senescence for some quercus spp. the relative decline in js i among species did not correlate with the relative decline in lj in any species (compare fig. 1 to fig. 2). inter-tree variation in senescence, marcescent behavior, and changes in the regulation of water loss by leaves during this time (doley 1967) may combine to obscure the temporal relationship between js and leaf area in mature forests during fall (breda et al. 1993). water use during periods of peak canopy leaf area during periods of a relatively constant l in deciduous forests, soil water availability controls the potential canopy conductance, while qo and d control the actual diurnal patterns of conductance (korner 1994). responses of js j and ec to qo and dz
What is governance?
governance is a concept that has emerged in political, environmental and sustainability studies in response to a growing awareness that the authorities are no longer the only relevant actors when it comes to managing society's public affairs (lange et al. 2013 
C02 Describe the reduction?
this index shows how sustainable european cities are. this study of 30 european cities showed a surprisingly strong correlation between the green city index and the voluntary participation index. in the notes to this report, it is also concluded that achieving the co2 reduction targets in london had more to do with the involvement of the people and businesses than the authorities
What is the ambitious goal of IWRM?
the involvement of the people and businesses than the authorities. it provides a good example of the opportunities available for achieving ambitious goals in iwrm. the process is supported by a common interest and a 'broadly accepted' purpose among the parties involved (kuijpers et al. 2013 
governance is a concept that has emerged in political, environmental and sustainability studies in response to a growing awareness that the authorities are no longer the only relevant actors when it comes to managing society's public affairs (lange et al. 2013 ). this is reflected in the european green city index 2009 in europe that was commissioned by siemens. this index shows how sustainable european cities are. this study of 30 european cities showed a surprisingly strong correlation between the green city index and the voluntary participation index. in the notes to this report, it is also concluded that achieving the co2 reduction targets in london had more to do with the involvement of the people and businesses than the authorities. it provides a good example of the opportunities available for achieving ambitious goals in iwrm. the process is supported by a common interest and a 'broadly accepted' purpose among the parties involved (kuijpers et al. 2013 ).
What was assessed in applying the SWAT model to a UK catchment?
the swat model was applied to a uk catchment to assess the impact of potential climate change on nutrient loads to surface water
What three step procedure was used to conduct the study?
the study was conducted using a three-step procedure: validate the hydro-geochemical model using measured climate data, perturb the baseline climate data according to the different climate scenarios, and then run the model using the modified baseline climate
What did most climate scenarios predict an increase in?
all climate scenarios except echam2050 predict an increase in surface water flow
the swat model was applied to a uk catchment to assess the impact of potential climate change on nutrient loads to surface water. the study was conducted using a three-step procedure: validate the hydro-geochemical model using measured climate data, perturb the baseline climate data according to the different climate scenarios, and then run the model using the modified baseline climate. all climate scenarios except echam2050 predict an increase in surface water flow. this increase is statistically significant and the changes are higher than the errors made in the calibration exercise. all six climate scenarios would affect, significantly, not only water quality and nutrient loads from agricultural areas but also crop growth patterns. this agrees with other studies (kallio et al. 1997; haratty and stefan, 1998). one of the major conclusions is that climate changes, as actually predicted, will increase the nutrient losses to surface water firstly by accelerating soil processes such as mineralisation of organic matter and, for all climate scenarios except echam2050, by increasing the amount of water transiting through the soil profile to the river network. furthermore, all scenarios predict a shift in crop growth. this will affect soil and crop management, so that traditional crop rotations and management practices will have to be adjusted.
When do the Grey geese Anser species normally leave the Netherlands?
in february and early march
What do the floodplains of rivers in East Russia have in the areas?
large-scale flooded meadows, oxbow lakes in the vicinity of improved grasslands and some fertilized arable land (spring cereals
What natural sources do raised bogs and transitional miresk provide?
stolons of eriophorum trisetum and rhynchospora
grey geese anser species), such as the bean goose and the greater white-fronted goose, follow an interior, eastward route through continental europe before turning north to the northernmost taiga and tundra areas in russia. these species normally leave the netherlands in february and early march, well before departure of the branta species. the flooding regime of the larger rivers sets the migratory timetable; stopover sites occur in the eastern parts of germany and poland, where birds concentrate in riverine areas of the elbe, oder, varta and wisla. spring flooding usually peaks here in march and april. after mid-april and early may these species move further east into belarus and the south-western part of european russia. in belarus the vast area of the pripyat river system (upper dnepr catchment) floods in early may and forms the route to the major staging sites (heath evans, 2000). further to the east, in russia the staging sites comprise similar habitat in the floodplains of rivers such as the iput, desna, oka, kostroma, moksha and vorona (volga catchment, heath evans, 2000), but this becomes slightly later available. these areas have large-scale flooded meadows, oxbow lakes in the vicinity of improved grasslands and some fertilized arable land (spring cereals). seed of spring barley is an important carbohydrate source. in addition, raised bogs and transitional mires provide natural food sources, such as stolons of eriophorum trisetum and rhynchospora (m. r. van eerden, unpublished results). spring staging areas in grey geese are much more scattered than those utilized by branta species. the mapped (average) staging areas for different populations in fig. 4 fail to convey the fact that these grey geese utilize a much larger staging area. as early as mid-may, bean and white-fronted geese appear in natural habitats along the coasts of kanin, kolguyev and at pechora bay, whereas other birds of the same species are still 1500 km to the south at spring staging areas in a semiagricultural environment. bean geese follow a somewhat straighter (closer to the baltic- white sea) course than that used by white-fronted geese (bauer glutz von blotzheim, 1968). whether any 'leap-frogging' by white-fronted geese, the smaller species, occurs like that described for the black-bellied brent goose remains unknown. none of the anser species is restricted to 'natural habitats' during spring staging and the main concentrations coincide with areas with a combination of flooded meadows, grain crops and improved grasslands. at some sites, natural vegetation, either in peat bogs or in wetlands along the river provides additional food as well.
Can we produce a future flood risk map correctly?
it is perhaps premature and misleading to attempt to produce a future flood risk map
Which coastal sites are now prone to tidal inundation ?
low-lying coastal sites that are now prone to tidal inundation
all in all, though major limitations remain in our ability to make robust projections of future rates of climate change and its effects, increasing predictive evidence of heightened global risk of inland and coastal flooding is emerging. it is perhaps premature and misleading to attempt to produce a future flood risk map, but it is apparent that some areas at least are highly likely to experience more intense or frequent flood events over the next 100 years - many of these are humid areas that already experience high rainfall/flood events or low-lying coastal sites that are now prone to tidal inundation (as depicted in figure 2.1).
who are the Respondents for d ATUS Th survey by The American Time?
respondents are individuals over age 15 randomly selected from households that have completed their final month in the current population survey d cps th each respondent completes a 24-hour time diary for a preassigned date, providing details of the activity undertaken, the length of time engaged in the activity, and where the activity took place
what The American Time Use Survey d ATUS Th describe ?
the american time use survey d atus th is a nationally representative cross-sectional survey available from 2003 to 2006 describing how and where americans spend their time
how did the respondent been interviewed?
each respondent is interviewed the day after the diary date and is contacted for 8 consecutive weeks to obtain an interview. for simplicity, we categorize time allocated throughout the day into three broad activity categories: work, outdoor leisure, and indoor leisure.5
ii. data a. the american time use survey the american time use survey d atus th is a nationally representative cross-sectional survey available from 2003 to 2006 describing how and where americans spend their time. respondents are individuals over age 15 randomly selected from households that have completed their final month in the current population survey d cps th each respondent completes a 24-hour time diary for a preassigned date, providing details of the activity undertaken, the length of time engaged in the activity, and where the activity took place. each respondent is interviewed the day after the diary date and is contacted for 8 consecutive weeks to obtain an interview. for simplicity, we categorize time allocated throughout the day into three broad activity categories: work, outdoor leisure, and indoor leisure.5
Write the key words from this paragraph ?
climate change * avian migration * phenology * meta-analysis * evolution * haldane * nao
what is the confirmation of meta analysis ?
the meta-analysis confirmed a general advancement of avian migration time and that this advancement is correlated with climatic parameters
Evidence for advancement of spring phenology ?
the evidence for advancement of spring phenology of animals and plants in response to recent climate change is overwhelming and undisputed, formal meta-analyses of avian migratory phenologies in response to climate change have not been conducted
while the evidence for advancement of spring phenology of animals and plants in response to recent climate change is overwhelming and undisputed, formal meta-analyses of avian migratory phenologies in response to climate change have not been conducted. likewise, attempts to evaluate the relative roles of phenotypic plasticity versus evolutionary responses of observed advances in arrival times have been few. we conducted a meta-analysis of published data on timing of avian spring migration, with particular emphasis on evaluating whether the observed patterns are consistent with evolutionary explanations. in addition, we compared the observed rates of advancement with the theoretically expected rates of 'sustainable evolution'. the meta-analysis confirmed a general advancement of avian migration time and that this advancement is correlated with climatic parameters. however, large-scale geographical patterns and relationships with age at first reproduction--a proxy of generation time--were less clear. the average rate of advancement expressed in haldanes h 0.07) was within theoretically predicted limits of 'sustainable evolution'. all in all, while the results are in clear agreement with the assertion that birds are advancing their migratory schedules, they do not unambiguously support or refute the possibility that the observed responses would be genetic, rather than examples of phenotypic plasticity. key words: climate change * avian migration * phenology * meta-analysis * evolution * haldane * nao
Did this study show an impact future climate change on the risk of forest and grassland fires over Australia?
results show a consistent increase in regional-scale fire risk over australia driven principally by warming and reductions in relative humidity in all simulations, under all emission scenarios and at all time periods
What was the probability of extreme fire risk increase percentage in 2050 under both relatively low and relatively high emissions as today?
we calculate the probability density function for the fire risk for a single point in new south wales and show that the probability of extreme fire risk increases by around 25% compared to the present day in 2050 under both relatively low and relatively high emissions
we explore the impact of future climate change on the risk of forest and grassland fires over australia in january using a high resolution regional climate model, driven at the boundaries by data from a transitory coupled climate model. two future emission scenarios (relatively high and relatively low) are used for 2050 and 2100 and four realizations for each time period and each emission scenario are run. results show a consistent increase in regional-scale fire risk over australia driven principally by warming and reductions in relative humidity in all simulations, under all emission scenarios and at all time periods. we calculate the probability density function for the fire risk for a single point in new south wales and show that the probability of extreme fire risk increases by around 25% compared to the present day in 2050 under both relatively low and relatively high emissions, and that this increases by a further 20% under the relatively low emission scenario by 2100. the increase in the probability of extreme fire risk increases dramatically under the high emission scenario by 2100. our results are broadly in-line with earlier analyses despite our use of a significantly different methodology and we therefore conclude that the likelihood of a significant increase in fire risk over australia resulting from climate change is very high. while there is already substantial investment in fire-related management in australia, our results indicate that this investment is likely to have to increase to maintain the present fire-related losses in australia.
What combined effects causes downwelling longwave radiation at the surface?
model temperature biases in summer (all models except coamps are 1-2degc too cold below a few hundred meters; see tea05) and an almost total lack of liquid water in winter clouds
Do more advanced models perform better than simpler models?
it is interesting to note that the more advanced models, in the sense of carrying separate prognostic equations for different types of hydrometeors, do not perform better than simpler models
What model is not 1-2degC too cold?
all models except coamps are 1-2degc too cold below a few hundred meters
the negative bias in downwelling longwave radiation at the surface is shown to be a combined effect of model temperature biases in summer (all models except coamps are 1-2degc too cold below a few hundred meters; see tea05) and an almost total lack of liquid water in winter clouds, in contrast to the observations (intrieri et al. 2002). it is interesting to note that the more advanced models, in the sense of carrying separate prognostic equations for different types of hydrometeors, do not perform better than simpler models with just one single prognostic equation for cloud water.
Describe the inkhard terminal values?
inglehart focused on rockeach's instrumental rather than terminal values,29,34describing a set of 'postmaterialist' values that have emerged in industrialized economies which have experienced growing affluence and economic/political security
Describe the values â€‹â€‹for evaluating the social world?
other sociological treatments--often distinct from the empirical work described above--have tended to focus on the idea that values are a latent means of evaluating the social world35,36which are explicitly motivational (in that they help to privilege certain actions or outcomes37
What are socio-psychological and sociological approaches?
a focus on altruism is a reoccurring theme across many of the different social-psychological and sociological approaches to values.38-40altruistic and biospheric values are sometimes considered to be broadly equivalent to schwartz's self-transcendent and conservation groupings, while egoistic values appear to fit within the self-enhancement cluster
inglehart focused on rockeach's instrumental rather than terminal values,29,34describing a set of 'postmaterialist' values that have emerged in industrialized economies which have experienced growing affluence and economic/political security. other sociological treatments--often distinct from the empirical work described above--have tended to focus on the idea that values are a latent means of evaluating the social world35,36which are explicitly motivational (in that they help to privilege certain actions or outcomes37). a focus on altruism is a reoccurring theme across many of the different social-psychological and sociological approaches to values.38-40altruistic and biospheric values are sometimes considered to be broadly equivalent to schwartz's self-transcendent and conservation groupings, while egoistic values appear to fit within the self-enhancement cluster.
What does this section focus on?
this section focuses on coping strategies during the growing seasons of the most recent past and hypothetical future scenarios
According to Figures 7 and 8, during 200824(January-December), how much rainfall did Mahbubnagar experience?
to abnormal rainfall in 2008 as shown in figures 7 and 8, during 200824(january-december), mahbubnagar experienced below normal rainfall during the growing season
According to Figures 7 and 8, during 200824(January-December), how much rainfall did Antapur experience?
while anantapur experienced above normal rainfall during that time
c men and women's coping strategies are complementary but different examining farmer coping strategies for dealing with different climate conditions over the past thirty years was complicated by the fact that multiple socio-economic changes were also taking place. thus, instead of looking at average climate conditions over time and responses to them, this section focuses on coping strategies during the growing seasons of the most recent past and hypothetical future scenarios. the discussion focuses on coping strategies for responding to variations in rainfall, as "no rainfall", "unseasonal rains" and "no rainfall during agricultural season" were ranked as the greatest risks to farming production by men and women in all but one of the study villages23. coping strategies in response to abnormal rainfall in 2008 as shown in figures 7 and 8, during 200824(january-december), mahbubnagar experienced below normal rainfall during the growing season, while anantapur experienced above normal rainfall during that time. farmers' perceptions confirmed these patterns.
Which model predicts an additional degree of warming?
national center for atmospheric research parallel climate model (ncar-pcm), which predicts an additional degree of warming, for a total of 4degc in the midcontinent by 2050
How we can know current stone prevalence?
the temperature-dependence models presume an accurate understanding of current stone prevalence
What will affect the entire population?
when determining regional differences in stone risk, these systematic errors affect the entire population and should not affect the calculated relative regional risks of stone disease
intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc4). we considered the intermediate warming scenarios (a1b) as defined in the special report on emissions scenarios (sres). for example, a u.s. contribution to this model set is the national center for atmospheric research parallel climate model (ncar-pcm), which predicts an additional degree of warming, for a total of 4degc in the midcontinent by 2050. more severe warming scenarios, e.g., sresa2, predict significantly greater warming after 2050. given this level of warming, the nationwide increase in the prevalence of stone disease would be 15-20% and the annual cost increase up to 40% by 2050. with the nonlinear model, this amount of warming would yield a 40-50% increase in prevalence and cost in some midwest climate divisions such as chicago. we acknowledge additional limitations in this work. the temperature-dependence models presume an accurate understanding of current stone prevalence; however, such data are problematic for a variety of reasons. unlike some diseases that are readily diagnosed as present or not, such as appendicitis, stone disease occurs intermittently and is not always readily apparent. many patients harbor undiagnosed, asymptomatic stones, whereas others require repeated hospitalizations for recurrent stone events. whereas virtually all patients with appendicitis come to medical attention and can be accounted for by hospital discharges and confirmed with pathology reports, patients with stone disease may or may not come to medical attention, and consequently some remain unaccounted for, and others involve repeated use of health care resources for the same or different stone events. consequently, true stone prevalence is difficult to determine and is likely routinely underestimated but also occasionally overestimated. the baseline prevalence of stone disease assumed here reflects the most current published data (2) but could be as much as 35% higher today, based on trend projection. for the linear model, this would yield a matching percentage increase in nephrolithiasis prevalence and cost. when using national and regional datasets, a variety of surrogate markers are used to estimate stone prevalence, including hospital discharges, physician office visits, emergency room visits, or procedures related to a primary diagnosis of stone disease, or a self-reported history of stones (17, 23). all of these surrogates are compromised in that they likely underestimate the prevalence of disease either because a patient may pass a stone without requiring any health care resources or because a patient may report a history of stones based on unsubstantiated symptoms or not report a history of stones because a stone was never collected despite classic symptoms of renal colic. in the linear model that we derived using va data, prevalence was derived from inpatient and outpatient hospital visits, which provide an accurate estimate of health care resource utilization in this population during the specified time; however, because the data were not acquired by using unique identifiers, all encounters, not only unique patients, were captured, thereby likely overestimating prevalence. however, because this dataset relies on resource utilization, individuals who passed stones without accessing the health care system were not captured, potentially leading to an underestimate of prevalence. when determining regional differences in stone risk, these systematic errors affect the entire population and should not affect the calculated relative regional risks of stone disease. however, error in stone prevalence can have a profound impact on estimates of economic consequences of increased stone prevalence in that the increase in health care dollars depends on a precise estimate of the burden of disease. in the future, we plan to use other national datasets that use population-based estimates of stone prevalence (i.e., self-reported history) or that use claims data for a much greater and more inclusive sampled population, allowing a more accurate estimate of current and future stone prevalence. finally, this analysis cannot take into account potential dramatic changes in the care of patients with kidney stones that might result in significant and unexpected changes in the future cost of care of these patients. although dramatic changes in technology are possible, small changes with minimal impact on cost are more likely. health care-related costs have been increasing at a rate that surpasses inflation. most surgical procedures for stone removal
What are the polar thermal trends?
the overly large sea ice extent in the north atlantic seen in cm2.1 remains a problem in cm3. both model biases are related to the weaker than observed poleward heat transport in the atlantic (fig. 5). arctic sea ice coverage has been the focus of much research in recent years, given the potential for an icefree period to appear in the arctic within the next few decades (serreze et al. 2007
What are the climatic seasons?
the climatological seasonal cycle of ice area is shown in fig
What are the values?
10. cm2.1 and cm3 have roughly the same annual mean ice cover, and their values correspond reasonably well to the observational estimate from cavalieri et al. (2003). however
the overly large sea ice extent in the north atlantic seen in cm2.1 remains a problem in cm3. both model biases are related to the weaker than observed poleward heat transport in the atlantic (fig. 5). arctic sea ice coverage has been the focus of much research in recent years, given the potential for an icefree period to appear in the arctic within the next few decades (serreze et al. 2007). the climatological seasonal cycle of ice area is shown in fig. 10. cm2.1 and cm3 have roughly the same annual mean ice cover, and their values correspond reasonably well to the observational estimate from cavalieri et al. (2003). however,
How will the Paris Agreement be judged?
finally, given that the decarbonization of the global economy will be down to decisions by economic actors, the paris agreement will ultimately be judged by the effect it has on global markets
What entities can provide a supportive regulatory framework for the Paris Agreement?
international regimes and governmental regulation can provide a supportive regulatory framework, but it is companies that decide on the direction of technological innovation, r&d expenditure and investment flows
How does the Paris Agreement send a clear signal to global markets?
by strengthening the temperature target and adopting carbon neutrality as the long-term goal, the paris agreement does indeed send a clear signal to global markets, marking out the long-term direction of travel for the global economy
even so, we should not expect the monitoring ability of civil society to be equally distributed around the world. finally, given that the decarbonization of the global economy will be down to decisions by economic actors, the paris agreement will ultimately be judged by the effect it has on global markets. international regimes and governmental regulation can provide a supportive regulatory framework, but it is companies that decide on the direction of technological innovation, r&d expenditure and investment flows. in this context, an international treaty such as the paris agreement can hope to shape business decisions in three ways: it can send a signal to markets about the international community's long-term political objectives; it can put in place governance mechanisms that create incentives for low-carbon business decisions; and it can encourage and support voluntary efforts by private actors. with regard to signalling, global business leaders had encouraged governments to create an ambitious climate agreement that would produce certainty for long-term investment decisions.48 by strengthening the temperature target and adopting carbon neutrality as the long-term goal, the paris agreement does indeed send a clear signal to global markets, marking out the long-term direction of travel for the global economy. however, the lack of detail on the timeframe for and pathway towards long-term carbon neutrality has weakened the strength of the signal. furthermore, the paris agreement put
Who emphasizes the difficulties of reaching agreements on global public goods with large numbers of participants because of free-riding.
barrett emphasizes the difficulties of reaching agreements on global public goods with large numbers of participants because of free-riding
What tend to have few members?
stable climate coalitions tend to have few members
What price is twice that of the NC equilibrium?
the global average carbon price is twice that of the nc equilibrium
his analysis emphasizes credible or "self-enforcing" treaties barrett 1994 these are ones that combine individual rationality for each player individually and collective rationality for all players together this concept is weaker than the concept of coalition stability discussed later, which adds rationality for each subset of the players. barrett emphasizes the difficulties of reaching agreements on global public goods with large numbers of participants because of free-riding. similar to the results for cartels, barrett and others find that stable climate coalitions tend to have few members; therefore, as the number of countries rises, the fraction of global emissions covered by the agreement declines. he further argues, based on a comprehensive review of existing treaties, that there are very few treaties for global public goods that succeed in inducing countries to increase their investments significantly above the noncooperative levels. moreover, the ones that do succeed include external penalties. how can we understand the small coalition paradox? here is the intuition for climate change: clearly, two countries can improve their welfare by combining and raising their carbon price to the level that equals the sum of their sccs. either country is worse off by dropping out. the 2014 agreement between china and the united states to join forces in climate policy might be interpreted as an example of a small bottom-up coalition. does it follow that, by increasing the number of countries in the treaty, this process would accumulate into a grand coalition of all countries with efficient abatement? that conclusion is generally wrong. the problem arises because, as more countries join, the cooperative carbon price becomes ever higher, and ever further from the nc price. the discrepancy gives incentives for individual countries to defect. when a country defects from an agreement with m countries, the remainder coalition of m - 1 countries would reoptimize its levels of abatement. the revised levels of abatement would still be well above the nc levels for the remainder coalition, while the defector free-rides on the abatement of the remainder coalition. the exact size of the coalitions would depend upon the cost and damage structure as well as the number of countries. the online appendix provides a simple analysis of the bottom-up coalition equilibrium for identical countries with the cost and damage structure shown in equations 1 - 5 the only stable coalitions have two or three countries. for simplicity, assume the lower number holds in the case of ties. the size of the stable coalition is independent of the number of countries, the social cost of carbon, output, emissions, and the emissions intensity. if there are ten identical countries, there will be five coalitions of two countries each. the global average carbon price is twice that of the nc equilibrium. this result is clear because each country-pair has a joint scc that is the sum of the two countries' sccs. the globally averaged carbon price will be one-fifth of the efficient level. with countries of different sizes but equal intensities, countries will group together in stable coalitions of size two, with the countries of similar sizes grouped together in pairs i.e., largest with second-largest, and so on the key result is that bottom-up coalitions perform only slightly better than the noncooperative equilibrium. c. modeling results for bottom-up coalitions the coalition theories described above generally use highly stylized structures and assumptions, so it is useful to examine empirical models of climate-policy
How about "alert and public safety" in quick start situations?
efforts to preserve public safety through warning and/or evacuation may not always be effective, especially in rapid onset situations. in their uk study, tapsell et al. (2002) describe how the flashy nature of flooding made warning difficult and hampered people's ability to react
What are the consequences of "danger information and warning" received in times of danger?
there will almost always be individuals who are 'risk-informed' but fail to react to warnings because of insensitivity to risk, competing priorities or an inability to respond (glantz, 2004; handmer, 2000). nevertheless, well organised warning and measures to ensure appropriate response by citizens can play a crucial role in saving lives and reducing injury (menne, 1999
ensuring public safety during the onset of floods is of course a key dimension of healthrelated response to floods. it is not appropriate in this review to discuss general aspects of forecasting, risk mapping and warning technology, but it is important to talk here about the role of warning systems and evacuation procedures in health preparedness and emergency health response. efforts to preserve public safety through warning and/or evacuation may not always be effective, especially in rapid onset situations. in their uk study, tapsell et al. (2002) describe how the flashy nature of flooding made warning difficult and hampered people's ability to react. moreover, there will almost always be individuals who are 'risk-informed' but fail to react to warnings because of insensitivity to risk, competing priorities or an inability to respond (glantz, 2004; handmer, 2000). nevertheless, well organised warning and measures to ensure appropriate response by citizens can play a crucial role in saving lives and reducing injury (menne, 1999).
What is the main question / subject of this text?
tropical cyclones could induce sufficient mixing of the upper portion of the low-latitude oceans during warm, equable climates to drive stronger poleward heat fluxes
How difficult is this study?
is challenging because the real mixing is turbulent, not diffusive, yet we wish to examine the effects on large-scale problems
we now turn to the question of whether tropical cyclones could induce sufficient mixing of the upper portion of the low-latitude oceans during warm, equable climates to drive stronger poleward heat fluxes. our goal is not to simulate the details of upper-ocean mixing from individual storms, but rather to examine the cumulative effects from these transient events. this problem is challenging because the real mixing is turbulent, not diffusive, yet we wish to examine the effects on large-scale problems. because we are after aggregate effects and a first-order understanding of how this might interact with climate, we make a number of simplifications. estimates of mixing inferred from measurements taken in the tropical thermocline show that the diffusion coefficient is o (0.1) cm2s 1(gregg 1987; wunsch and ferrari 2004). using diffusion coefficients of this magnitude in numerical models, however, often produces circulations believed to be too weak (e.g., cummins et al. 1990), and thus many models require larger values to replicate the strength of the oceans' meridional overturning circulation and heat fluxes for the present climate. while it is certainly possible that these large required diffusivities might simply compensate for other model deficiencies, we postulate that the direct measurements have largely captured the nearly quiescent background and that isolated blasts of mixing from transient events could be quite important in the upper tropical oceans. some evidence that this might be the case was offered by raymond et al. (2004), who presented data suggesting that rather than a slow, steady mixing, the thermocline is mixed only when the winds are strong enough to drive the local richardson number below a critical threshold, creating a shear instability. they conclude that mixing in the upper tropical
What does figure 18 show?
figure 18 shows an example of north west european temperatures from one of the ensemble experiments used to compute the average potential predictability. in this region (fig. 9) there was very little average skill with an acc 25 of less than 0.6 even in the first season (djf). in fig. 18 the number of ensemble members for this particular experiment has been increa
What does the analysis the article first refers to about?
the above analysis represents an estimate of the average potential predictability of various climate variables. there will be states of (the model) climate which are more predictable and less predictable than this average. it is possible that the states which may be more predictable than average will be those climate states which are unusual (e.g. in the tails of the distribution
What is impacting society in this article?
the above analysis represents an estimate of the average potential predictability of various climate variables. there will be states of (the model) climate which are more predictable and less predictable than this average. it is possible that the states which may be more predictable than average will be those climate states which are unusual (e.g. in the tails of the distribution) and thus have the largest impact on society. figure 18 shows an example of north west european temperatures from one of the ensemble experiments used to compute the average potential predictability. in this region (fig. 9) there was very little average skill with an acc 25 of less than 0.6 even in the first season (djf). in fig. 18 the number of ensemble members
the above analysis represents an estimate of the average potential predictability of various climate variables. there will be states of (the model) climate which are more predictable and less predictable than this average. it is possible that the states which may be more predictable than average will be those climate states which are unusual (e.g. in the tails of the distribution) and thus have the largest impact on society. figure 18 shows an example of north west european temperatures from one of the ensemble experiments used to compute the average potential predictability. in this region (fig. 9) there was very little average skill with an acc 25 of less than 0.6 even in the first season (djf). in fig. 18 the number of ensemble members for this particular experiment has been increased from 5 to 12 for the initial 1.5 years of the experiment. the experiment is interesting as the initial conditions show a relatively large negative anomaly in sat and nearly all of the ensemble members lie below the zero line after the first season and many of the members lie above the zero line after 6 seasons. the acc computed for this ensemble only is greater than 0.6 at a lead time of one season and the rmse is smaller than the case for the average predictability. hence there can be "useful" potential predictability for individual cases even when there is little hope of predictability on average. the caveat to this particular example is that even though the perfect model ensemble shows potential predictability, the skill as measured by the acc, is lower than that for a simple persistence forecast. we expect there to be cases when this is not true and there may be useful skill to be gained using a coupled aogcm.
What is examined in the second variant?
we examine the same pair of damage scenarios but assume there is a cross-regional transfer instead of within-region redistribution
If redistribution was costless and values of society supported a utilitarian objective what would result?
the resulting policies would involve complete redistribution of income and complete compensation of damages across quintiles in addition to externality-correcting policies
From the results, is redistribution a good substitute for mitigation policies?
these results provide some indication that redistributive policy is not a good substitute for stronger mitigation policy
in the second variant, we examine the same pair of damage scenarios but assume there is a cross-regional transfer instead of within-region redistribution. more specifically, we consider a crossregional transfer of assistance levied in equal proportion on all residents of the richest four regions, and distributed in equal quantity among all of the residents of the poorest eight regions. we find that there is in fact no sufficiently large amount of such a transfer, implemented in this way, that would bring the x 0 carbon price trajectory with the transfer down to the rice-nordhaus level. such a tool is simply too blunt to achieve the task. note that if redistribution were actually costless and if the values of society supported the unconstrained maximization of the utilitarian objective, the resulting policies would involve complete redistribution of income and complete compensation of damages across quintiles in addition to externality-correcting policies. such extreme sharing is most unlikely to happen (for many reasons: e.g., inequalities are often considered to be partly legitimate due to unequal individual efforts, and climate impacts cannot be distinguished from other sources of fluctuations). this is why we instead examine different options -- a combination of flat tax and basic income or international transfers. these are more policy-relevant and show that the amount of redistribution that makes the usual rice results an acceptable simplification would be very high indeed. these results provide some indication that redistributive policy is not a good substitute for stronger mitigation policy. this is not to say that redistribution may not be an important complementary policy. still further analysis is needed to understand how mitigation and redistribution can best interact in the protection of the future poor from climate impacts. conclusion our results demonstrate the importance of accounting for inequalities within regions. as we have shown in nice the optimal mitigation effort under the discounting and inequality aversion assumptions of nordhaus (2) when damages are distributed inversely proportionally to income is equivalent to optimal mitigation in the more aggregated rice model under the lower discounting and inequality aversion assumptions of the stern review (1). therefore, properly accounting for the distribution of consumption and damage within regions may be as important for climate change policy as the debate over discounting. modeling the income distribution is also essential to incorporating concern for the vulnerability of the future poor: a concern shared by a wide range of ethical and religious perspectives###as well as the utilitarian objective that guides our optimization. the recent ipcc ar5 wgii report (35) has highlighted the vulnerability of the poor to climate impacts. still, the empirical estimates of the distribution of climate impacts among different socioeconomic strata are currently very limited. we show that improving these estimates and incorporating them into cost - benefit iams will increase the accuracy of the prescriptions of these models and thus help better inform policy making on global climate change. representing subregional inequalities and the distribution of damage and mitigation cost should become new best practices in cost - benefit iams. materials and methods
Sort of environmental features?
the consequences of climate change are not predictable with assurance, only that there will be likely changes. the ability to predict future consequences of a changing environment on vector-borne diseases demands greater understanding of the array of biological and environmental features that comprises specific episystems
What are WNV vectors?
the north american wnv vectors are all in the same subgenus of culex tabachnick discussed the possibility of associations between phylogenetically related vectors and pathogens, and did not find significant evidence for co-evolution between mosquitoes and arboviruses in the strict sense (tabachnick, 1998; tabachnick, 2003). the observation that distantly related species share vector status for the same pathogen is consistent with the possibility that man
vector-borne diseases, as represented by episystems, are dynamic systems adjusting continually in complex ways to changes in the environment. climate change will certainly impact these episystems, as will changes in other environmental factors. unfortunately, the ability to predict the consequences resulting from even specific environmental changes, were these changes known with assurance, requires an understanding that is still lacking. the consequences of climate change are not predictable with assurance, only that there will be likely changes. the ability to predict future consequences of a changing environment on vector-borne diseases demands greater understanding of the array of biological and environmental features that comprises specific episystems. this will be a daunting challenge because episystems probably will show dramatic spatio-temporal differences requiring biological, environmental and ecological details for a specific episystem. one conclusion from this brief survey is that it is unlikely that vector capacity traits generally evolved from shared common ancestors in phylogenetically disparate vector taxa. it is important to note that this observation leads to the conclusion that many of the controlling features and mechanisms differ between episystems. this adds to the difficulty of predicting future consequences and applying information from one episystem to other episystems. the four north american culex culex vectors of wnv have many related non-vector species, as do the culicoides btv vectors. how did vector capacity traits that allow transmission of specific pathogens evolve? are there factors that influence the evolution of vector capacity? what are such factors? although the discussion here leads to the conclusion of convergent evolution illustrated by diverse culicoides species independently having a suite of traits that permit them to be btv vectors, all known btv vectors are in different subgenera within the genus culicoides. the north american wnv vectors are all in the same subgenus of culex tabachnick discussed the possibility of associations between phylogenetically related vectors and pathogens, and did not find significant evidence for co-evolution between mosquitoes and arboviruses in the strict sense (tabachnick, 1998; tabachnick, 2003). the observation that distantly related species share vector status for the same pathogen is consistent with the possibility that many vector capacity related traits are not adaptations under natural selection for
What do the maps in the report represent?
the maps in this report represent the integration, at scales ranging from continental to small islands, of geospatial datasets such as population (size, density, and distribution), hydrology (asian river basins, highly populated river deltas), projected sea level rise (1 and 2 meters), agriculture (rain-fed agricultural land and areas in pasture), projected changes in runoff, and cyclones
How were the calculations on population on risk made?
calculations of populations at risk were made using zonal statistics
What does superimposing of populated areas and current and projected environmental hazards seek?
this superimposing of populated areas and current and projected environmental hazards seeks to provide an initial identification of populations and livelihoods potentially at risk of climate change impacts
the maps in this report represent the integration, at scales ranging from continental to small islands, of geospatial datasets such as population (size, density, and distribution), hydrology (asian river basins, highly populated river deltas), projected sea level rise (1 and 2 meters), agriculture (rain-fed agricultural land and areas in pasture), projected changes in runoff, and cyclones. these databases were compiled from different sources and integrated using gis techniques. calculations of populations at risk were made using zonal statistics. more information about data sources and methodologies used can be found below. this superimposing of populated areas and current and projected environmental hazards seeks to provide an initial identification of populations and livelihoods potentially at risk of climate change impacts. this first "layer" of vulnerability114 could be considered part of the context that shapes migration decisions to a greater or lesser extent.
What else is presented in addition to the main text?
in addition to the results presented in the main text an overview of the impacts of climate change on mean annual usable power plant capacity for hydropower (table s4) and thermoelectric power (table s5) is presented for the baseline power plant setting and for various adaptation options
What is discussed in the main text?
differences between impacts of various adaptation options on usable power plant capacities are discussed in the main text
What has been found for the baseline power plant settings?
for the baseline power plant settings, we found for most regions overall stronger declines in hydropower and thermoelectric power usable capacity for the gcm experiments of miroc, ipsl and hadgem than for gfdl and noresm
in addition to the results presented in the main text an overview of the impacts of climate change on mean annual usable power plant capacity for hydropower (table s4) and thermoelectric power (table s5) is presented for the baseline power plant setting and for various adaptation options. we show the impacts on gcm ensemble mean and gcm range (minimum-maximum) based on all five gcms for rcp2.6 and rcp8.5. differences between impacts of various adaptation options on usable power plant capacities are discussed in the main text. below we focus also on the range in impacts for the five different gcms. for the baseline power plant settings, we found for most regions overall stronger declines in hydropower and thermoelectric power usable capacity for the gcm experiments of miroc, ipsl and hadgem than for gfdl and noresm. this difference between the gcms is also in line with the projected impacts on global mean temperature by this set of gcms38. as expected, impacts of water constraints on usable power plant capacities are larger for rcp8.5 than for rcp2.6, in particular from the mid-century (2050s) when the greenhouse gas concentrations for both rcps further deviate39. for all six adaptation options we found a reduced vulnerability of the electricity sector to water constraints under climate change. the range between the different gcm experiments for these adaptation options was comparable to the range found for the baseline settings. for all five gcm experiments, consistently higher values of usable power plant capacities were found for the adaptation options compared to the baseline settings. this indicates for each of the adaptation options robustness in the simulated reductions of vulnerability to water constraints under climate change.
What does indicate "dangerous climate change"?
the question of what might constitute "dangerous climate change," and how as a global society we should be responding to the complex and multifaceted challenges that our current understanding of climate science raises, touches upon the entire spectrum of interests and methodological approaches represented within the risk research community
How are future climate uncertainties analyzed?
increasingly, climate scientists are adopting the tools and techniques of risk analysis in their efforts to characterize future climate uncertainties, their impacts and outcomes as well as to identify both the limits and thresholds beyond which changes in climate systems might be deemed unacceptable (see dessai et al., 2004
What type of response is received by Society for Risk Analysis?
there is also a range of fundamental risk perception and risk communication issues associated with the ways in which citizens might respond to 1387 0272-4332/05/0100-1387$22.00/1c2005 society for risk analysis
the question of what might constitute "dangerous climate change," and how as a global society we should be responding to the complex and multifaceted challenges that our current understanding of climate science raises, touches upon the entire spectrum of interests and methodological approaches represented within the risk research community. increasingly, climate scientists are adopting the tools and techniques of risk analysis in their efforts to characterize future climate uncertainties, their impacts and outcomes as well as to identify both the limits and thresholds beyond which changes in climate systems might be deemed unacceptable (see dessai et al., 2004). there is also a range of fundamental risk perception and risk communication issues associated with the ways in which citizens might respond to 1387 0272-4332/05/0100-1387$22.00/1c2005 society for risk analysis
Why cities have always been prone to disruption (such as traffi c congestion) from heavy rainfall?
cities have always been prone to disruption (such as traffi c congestion) from heavy rainfall because of their large populations, high population densities and heavy concentration of businesses and other establishments
What is the influence of cities in the production of heatwaves?
they also represent large areas of concrete, brick and asphalt, which absorb solar radiation and aggravate heatwaves
What increases incidence of respiratory illnesses among city dwellers?
air pollution from vehicle exhausts and industrial emissions contributes to heat and can contribute to the increased incidence of respiratory illnesses among city dwellers
cities have always been prone to disruption (such as traffi c congestion) from heavy rainfall because of their large populations, high population densities and heavy concentration of businesses and other establishments. because so many cities are on the coast and/or next to rivers, they are also severely affected by fl ooding. they also represent large areas of concrete, brick and asphalt, which absorb solar radiation and aggravate heatwaves. air pollution from vehicle exhausts and industrial emissions contributes to heat and can contribute to the increased incidence of respiratory illnesses among city dwellers. furthermore, industry, motor vehicle traffi c, the heating, cooling and lighting of buildings, solid waste sites and brick kilns around the city produce a high proportion of total greenhouse gas emissions. dhaka has already undertaken a number of measures to improve ambient air quality. many have been effective both in improving air quality and in reducing greenhouse gas emissions - for example, the of compressed natural gas in the transport sector. but many other sectors that consume electricity have not undertaken any signifi cant measures to improve effi ciency on the demand side. there is still untapped potential and opportunity to reduce electricity consumption and thus reduce greenhouse gas emissions - for instance, by promoting energy-effi cient lighting devices, using more effi cient cooling systems at household and industrial levels, making changes in the transport sector and changing behaviour. devastating fl oods can cause extensive damage to the economy. dhaka has already experienced three major fl oods in less than 20 years, and each has caused very serious damage to infrastructure, and signifi cant economic loss. one of the key questions related to this is: can dhaka afford frequent large-scale fl ood damage and economic losses, or should it prepare better to combat fl oods and reduce impacts and vulnerabilities?
Why is it said that climate policy modelling is challenging?
climate policy modelling is challenging for many reasons; one of the most serious is the deep uncertainty in both the relevant physical and economic systems
What are some of the inherent scientific uncertainties about climate sensitivity?
roe and baker 2007 show there are inherent scientific uncertainties about climate sensitivity--the eventual increase in global mean temperatures arising from doubling co2 concentrations in the atmosphere. there is still large uncertainty over the magnitude, and even the sign, of some physical feedback mechanisms in the climate system
What causes the increase in mean temperature that is small but non-negligible?
our latest understanding of the climate system cannot rule out a small, but non-negligible, probability of a dramatic (for example 7*c) increase in mean temperatures as a result of cumulative carbon dioxide emissions consistent with a best-estimate warming of 2*c (i.e. roughly 3.67 trillion tonnes of co2). physical scientists have identified a number of tipping points and risks
climate policy modelling is challenging for many reasons; one of the most serious is the deep uncertainty in both the relevant physical and economic systems. for instance, in a seminal paper, roe and baker 2007 show there are inherent scientific uncertainties about climate sensitivity--the eventual increase in global mean temperatures arising from doubling co2 concentrations in the atmosphere. there is still large uncertainty over the magnitude, and even the sign, of some physical feedback mechanisms in the climate system. our latest understanding of the climate system cannot rule out a small, but non-negligible, probability of a dramatic (for example 7*c) increase in mean temperatures as a result of cumulative carbon dioxide emissions consistent with a best-estimate warming of 2*c (i.e. roughly 3.67 trillion tonnes of co2). physical scientists have identified a number of tipping points and risks in the climate system lenton et al. 2008 that could trigger major economic disruption.1
What is an important adaptation mechanism?
maintaining forest health and biodiversity is an important adaptation mechanism
What is the effect when the criteria for sustainable forest management is fulfilled?
forests that are managed for these criteria would generally be less vulnerable to disturbances and hence more resilient to climate change. for example, healthy forest stands have been shown to exhibit a stronger and faster recovery from insect disturbances than stressed stands
maintaining forest health and biodiversity is an important adaptation mechanism, which builds upon existing initiatives for sustainable forest management, such as those listed in table 4. criteria for sustainable forest management, as outlined in the montreal process of the united nations conference on environment and development, include conservation of biodiversity, maintenance of forest productivity, maintenance of forest ecosystem health, and conservation of soil and water resources.(100)forests that are managed for these criteria would generally be less vulnerable to disturbances and hence more resilient to climate change. for example, healthy forest stands have been shown to exhibit a stronger and faster recovery from insect disturbances than stressed stands,(72)
What is shown in Figure 10?
we show a bifurcation diagram of the standard budyko - sellers model in figure 10, generated using the solution and stability criteria outlined in this section. 3.2
What does the Jormungand global climate state depend on?
modifying the budyko - sellers model to produce the jormungand state the jormungand global climate state depends on the difference between the albedo of snow covered and bare sea ice, which is not incorporated into the standard budyko - sellers model
What is not incorporated into the standard Budyko-Sellers model and how is it included?
modifying the budyko - sellers model to produce the jormungand state the jormungand global climate state depends on the difference between the albedo of snow covered and bare sea ice, which is not incorporated into the standard budyko - sellers model. to include this effect we let a2 take a snow covered value a2 s) poleward of a transition latitude and a bare sea ice value a2 i equatorward of this transition latitude. mathematically, we take
s xs)( a1 - a2( xs)) from equation (5) and note that s2 is negative). we show a bifurcation diagram of the standard budyko - sellers model in figure 10, generated using the solution and stability criteria outlined in this section. 3.2. modifying the budyko - sellers model to produce the jormungand state the jormungand global climate state depends on the difference between the albedo of snow covered and bare sea ice, which is not incorporated into the standard budyko - sellers model. to include this effect we let a2 take a snow covered value a2 s) poleward of a transition latitude and a bare sea ice value a2 i equatorward of this transition latitude. mathematically, we take
What did the chi-squared tests in Table B2 examine?
the chi-squared tests in table b.2 examine whether the distribution of the expected degree of incorporation of the respective equity rules (with parameter values "a very high degree", "a high degree", "a moderate degree", "a low degree", and "no degree") differs between the agents involved in climate policy coming from the eu (g77/china) and the corresponding agents from outside the eu (outside g77/china
What did White say on the subject?
we always consider robust estimations of the standard deviation of the parameter estimates (white 1982
What was performed with STATA?
the corresponding maximum likelihood estimations (in the same way as all further estimations and also the descriptive statistics discussed above) have been performed with stata
the chi-squared tests in table b.2 examine whether the distribution of the expected degree of incorporation of the respective equity rules (with parameter values "a very high degree", "a high degree", "a moderate degree", "a low degree", and "no degree") differs between the agents involved in climate policy coming from the eu (g77/china) and the corresponding agents from outside the eu (outside g77/china). 17 the corresponding maximum likelihood estimations (in the same way as all further estimations and also the descriptive statistics discussed above) have been performed with stata. we always consider robust estimations of the standard deviation of the parameter estimates (white 1982).
What does the Supplementary Information relating to Subjective Norm Analysis of the EMIUB dataset reveals?
supplementary information relating to subjective norm analysis of the emiub dataset reveals a range of probabilities of an agent migrating either internally or internationally in the top ten most populated locations in each of the five zones in 1990
How to get the the range of the peer impact component of the subjective norm?
the average probability of an individual migrating from each of these locations between 1990 and 1999 is used to suggest the range of the peer impact component of the subjective norm
How internal migration multiplier function is developed for a zone?
by calculating the average 19901999 internal migration probability values for the top 10 most inhabited locations in the region and dividing each by the average probability of migrating internally from the whole of the zone, an internal migration multiplier function can be developed for that zone
supplementary information relating to subjective norm analysis of the emiub dataset reveals a range of probabilities of an agent migrating either internally or internationally in the top ten most populated locations in each of the five zones in 1990. the average probability of an individual migrating from each of these locations between 1990 and 1999 is used to suggest the range of the peer impact component of the subjective norm. for example, the lowest average 1990-1999 probability of migrating internally from a location (individual village/town) within ouagadougou is 0.0083 while the maximum average 1990-1999 probability provided by another location within the zone is 0.0842. by calculating the average 19901999 internal migration probability values for the top 10 most inhabited locations in the region and dividing each by the average probability of migrating internally from the whole of the zone, an internal migration multiplier function can be developed for that zone. the same can be done for international migration from the same top ten locations with each zone. as such the different migration trends of each location are derived as being a function of the influence of the migration history of individuals upon one another through the interactions of a social network.
What does Bret argue that health care providers must enhance?
bradt et al. (2003) argue that health care providers must enhance skills in disaster management and engage with public health and public policy officials to generate guidelines for preparedness
What are common sources of bias, noted by Guha-Sapir (1991)?
guha-sapir (1991) notes that common sources of bias and error in rapid assessments include small sample sizes, inattention to differences between urban and rural areas, and extrapolation from data on a few specific sites leading to overreporting or under-reporting of injuries or diseases
What did Tapsell and Tierney conclude about the effects of the outreach and intervention efforts?
tapsell et al. (1999) and tierney (2000) conclude that outreach and intervention efforts need to take risk factors into account and specifically target vulnerable groups of populations and areas that are hit especially hard. highest priority, they suggest, should be given to
issues in health care provision among the many issues connected with the overall provision of health care for populations affected by floods, several key points stand out. first, the discussion has underscored the value of well-prepared emergency plans for health systems. careful and committed preparation tailored to local context not only needs to be developed, but also shared with health staff to ensure they are aware of procedures and practised in carrying them out, through drills. bradt et al. (2003) argue that health care providers must enhance skills in disaster management and engage with public health and public policy officials to generate guidelines for preparedness. their recommendations include regular drills, use of web pages for the dissemination of information, and education and training in the interdisciplinary field of disaster medicine. when floods strike, timely and accurate needs assessment is important as inadequate assessment is likely to lead to sub-optimal (or even maladaptive) responses, based on rumours rather than on facts. inappropriate relief becomes redundant, and may even create additional problems, such as the time and space needed to process and store unusable drug supplies. though some trade-off may be necessary between scientific precision and rapidity, efforts should still be made to maximise the accuracy of rapid needs assessments. guha-sapir (1991) notes that common sources of bias and error in rapid assessments include small sample sizes, inattention to differences between urban and rural areas, and extrapolation from data on a few specific sites leading to overreporting or under-reporting of injuries or diseases. flood casualties and disease victims are not the only people in need of medical attention during crisis periods. it is important to make provision that regular health care practices are not interrupted during flood emergencies (poncelet and de ville de goyet, 1996). health service responses should be consistent with normal public health principles, and essential services, such as maternity care and care for chronically-ill patients, people with disabilities and people living with hiv/aids, need to be maintained. some authors point to the need for more attention to mental health needs during flood disasters, especially in the south (e.g. espacios consultores, 2000; herzer and clichevsky 2001). in some quarters, mental health may be seen as a 'luxury' issue for poor countries. the inattention paid to mental health may also be a function of cultural notions of resilience in flood-prone communities and the politics of post-disaster relief. according to who (2003b), awareness of mental health impacts and the need for action has to be raised at all levels. mental health interventions need to be taken up within general primary health care at the local level, and their sustainability ensured by support from communities, ngos, government and international donors. in many cases there may need to be a targeting of care toward especially vulnerable groups, both because of their susceptibility and to prioritise use of limited resources (handmer, 2003). vulnerability to injury and illness may be heightened by age factors, mobility, health status, income, occupation, gender and cultural practices, as well as by geographical differences in exposure to hazard. in terms of mental health, both tapsell et al. (1999) and tierney (2000) conclude that outreach and intervention efforts need to take risk factors into account and specifically target vulnerable groups of populations and areas that are hit especially hard. highest priority, they suggest, should be given to
What is the largest source of GHG emissions that is still unaccounted for under the KP?
the proposal made by santilli et al at cop9 has brought refreshing new impetus to the issue of tropical deforestation, the largest source of ghg emissions that is still unaccounted for under the kp
Is the proposal complete or does it have shortcomings?
while the proposal as published has a few shortcomings, we demonstrate here that ways could be found of addressing them and making this a workable solution
Which two questions, especially, require more research?
further research is recommended especially concerning: * how much emission reduction would be achievable from a realistic deforestation avoidance strategy in tropical countries? * what is the timing of emissions from deforestation
the proposal made by santilli et al at cop9 has brought refreshing new impetus to the issue of tropical deforestation, the largest source of ghg emissions that is still unaccounted for under the kp. while the proposal as published has a few shortcomings, we demonstrate here that ways could be found of addressing them and making this a workable solution. further research is recommended especially concerning: * how much emission reduction would be achievable from a realistic deforestation avoidance strategy in tropical countries? * what is the timing of emissions from deforestation? usually, when a forest stand is removed permanently, not all of the emissions occur in one year because the
where the significant trends found?
for the niger much more significant trends were found for rcp 8.5 than for the other three
Which show a significant downward trend?
in this case, all simulations (except one) driven by had and ipsl show a significant downward trend, and almost all simulations driven by miroc show a significant upward trend
Which RCPs is positive in all simulation?
the direction of trends in q50 for three other rcps is positive in all simulation driven by miroc, and in each of these three cases there is a simulation driven by one of other cms which 415
for the niger much more significant trends were found for rcp 8.5 than for the other three. in this case, all simulations (except one) driven by had and ipsl show a significant downward trend, and almost all simulations driven by miroc show a significant upward trend. for q50 the nor-driven projections corresponding to rcp 8.5 agree with those of had and ipsl, and two of three gfdl projections agree with those of miroc. the direction of trends in q50 for three other rcps is positive in all simulation driven by miroc, and in each of these three cases there is a simulation driven by one of other cms which 415
What factors were used as the base for relative risk of change to infrastructure for subwatersheds on the White River National Forest?
relative risk of change to infrastructure for subwatersheds on the white river national forest was based on factors affecting peak flows
What was the relative rating of watershed condition on the Ouachita National Forest based on?
relative rating of watershed condition on the ouachita national forest was based on guilds of aquatic species affected by sediment, where sediment production was a function of pro jected changes in precipitation
what are two examples of potentially irreversible impacts in the step 4 consideration of identifying administrative factors that should be factored into the rating?
 identify administrative factors that should be factored into the rating, such as mixed ownership, likely partners, and potentially irreversible impacts such as dams and highways
for example, relative vulnerabilities of water resources to climate change on the umatilla national forest were determined by displaying the relative density of water resource values by subwatershed, relative risk of change, and sensitivity of each subwatershed; these factors were combined to yield relative vulnerability. relative risk of change to infrastructure for subwatersheds on the white river national forest was based on factors affecting peak flows. relative rating of watershed condition on the ouachita national forest was based on guilds of aquatic species affected by sediment, where sediment production was a function of pro jected changes in precipitation. locations where changes in condition are expected can be used to prioritize management actions. important considerations for step 4 include: * identify the highest risks of changes to hydrologic processes (e.g., using a risk-severity matrix). * determine how changes in hydrologic processes affect water resource values. * determine the relative vulnerabilities of subwatersheds across the assess ment area (e.g., low, moderate, high) to inform priorities for adaptive response. in places where vulnerabilities are high, can resource values be sustained? * identify administrative factors that should be factored into the rating, such as mixed ownership, likely partners, and potentially irreversible impacts such as dams and highways. * document critical data gaps, rationale, and assumptions for inferences, references for data sources, and confidence (or uncertainty) associated with assessment outputs.
What observations were recorded in the project called Igliniit?
inuit hunters recorded observations on wildlife, sea ice, weather or other environmental phenomena as they travelled across the land (gearheard et al., 2011
What are the benefits of IPY projects like Igliniit?
collaborative initiatives such as these, which bring together indigenous and scientific knowledge, contribute importantly to climate change monitoring and adaptation. they provide meticulous and systematic local observations that are informed by indigenous experience and understandings, and further enriched with relevant information related to subsistence livelihoods and community concerns and needs
Which device is used to record the observations?
these observations were systematized, spatially accurate and registered on the spot through the development of a gps/minicomputer device that hunters affixed to their snowmobiles
in another ipy project, called igliniit, inuit hunters recorded observations on wildlife, sea ice, weather or other environmental phenomena as they travelled across the land (gearheard et al., 2011). these observations were systematized, spatially accurate and registered on the spot through the development of a gps/minicomputer device that hunters affixed to their snowmobiles. collaborative initiatives such as these, which bring together indigenous and scientific knowledge, contribute importantly to climate change monitoring and adaptation. they provide meticulous and systematic local observations that are informed by indigenous experience and understandings, and further enriched with relevant information related to subsistence livelihoods and community concerns and needs.
From 1950 to 2010, what was the increase in urban dwellers? increased from 729 million in 1950 to 3.5 billion in 2010
as of 2010, more than half of the world's population is living in towns or cities united nations, 2010 ). the number of urban dwellers rose from 729 million in 1950 to 3.5 billion in 2010
In the period from 1950 to 2010, what was the increase in the total population? It increased from 2.5 billion to 6.9 billion.
the number of urban dwellers rose from 729 million in 1950 to 3.5 billion in 2010. over the same time period, the total population has increased from 2.5 billion to 6.9 billion
What is expected in 2045? Every two in three people are expected to live in urbanized areas
by 2045, every two out of three persons are expected to live in urbanized areas, corresponding to 5.9 billion people
as of 2010, more than half of the world's population is living in towns or cities united nations, 2010 ). the number of urban dwellers rose from 729 million in 1950 to 3.5 billion in 2010. over the same time period, the total population has increased from 2.5 billion to 6.9 billion. current projections by the united nations assume that this growth continues united nations, 2010 ). by 2045, every two out of three persons are expected to live in urbanized areas, corresponding to 5.9 billion people. over the past decades, urbanisation mainly took place in europe and the us, while nowadays, the centre of urbanisation moved to asia as consequence of their rapid economic growth figure 1 ).
What is being attempted by including an image of a wind turbine on the cover of "New Power for Britain: A Strategy for a Renewable Energy Industry"?
attempts to communicate a positive message in terms of the development of a renewable energy industry for britain
What is the problem with image of cracked ice?
it simplifies the impact of climate change, reducing it to a single dramatic instance
What question was posed on the cover of "Nature's Bottom Line: Climate Protection and the Carbon Logic"?
what more can nature take
this visual and epistemological opposition between human and nature also stages a moral opposition, where the negative impacts of human activities are conveyed by the visible damage wrought on the ice. yet, the problem with such an image, and its subsequent circulation within the news media, is that it simplifies the impact of climate change, reducing it to a single dramatic instance. in other words, it becomes a synecdochal sign for climate change, which is still present today. the synecdochal function of the image of cracked ice in the visual language of climate change brought about a shift in the discourse of greenpeace climate change communication during 1998. the image established a dominant visual language of climate change through the beauty and destruction of glacial ice and the fragility of the polar ice caps. the photograph of the larsen b ice shelf crack dominates the cover of the first publication called nature's bottom line: climate protection and the carbon logic (greenpeace uk, july 1998). the visible damage is intended as an indexical sign of the existence of climate change and provides a visual testimony to the question posed on the cover, what more can nature take? the text foregrounds the need for 'protection' of nature, a common discursive trope in environmental discourse, which in this context, frames climate change as of consequence for the natural landscape, rather than humans. from establishing the evidence of climate change upon the ice shelves of antarctica, new power for britain: a strategy for a renewable energy industry (greenpeace uk, april 1998) attempts to communicate a positive message in terms of the development of a renewable energy industry for britain (figure 5). the image of the wind turbine, which dominates the cover, is supported by images of the natural elements, which are
How many firms mentions auditing or verifications?
although 189 firms mention auditing or verification, responses show considerable diversity in interpretation
Why there was no reference to the auditing?
perhaps attributable to the fact that the question on auditing/verification of data was one in a set of questions under the 'methodology' heading
What is the only way that firms are forced to adopt common methodologies on these issues?
is when they operate within a framework of an emissions trading scheme that deals with the final step of achieving value commensuration. however, as long as the eu-ets is the only large trading scheme, value commensuration will not take place on a global level
such problems related to measurement and scope also have their impact on the auditing of emissions. although 189 firms mention auditing or verification, responses show considerable diversity in interpretation. in some cases, the csr or sustainability report was said to be verified by an external party (which could be an auditing or consulting firm or ngo), but this was sometimes just referred to in general, or as auditing of the reporting process, or more specifically with regard to the emissions data (frequently without giving details about the outcome of it). in other instances, firms stated that a specific component of the overall emissions profile was checked; this could be the data in the home country only or in another particular location. the influence of strong, local institutions is clearly seen as several utilities mention that they require external verification because they fall under the eu-ets, but unfortunately this also means that verification often does not go beyond these local boundaries. at best, this usually means that just a portion of the total emissions data has been audited. sometimes, firms answered this question even more broadly by referring to an audited environmental management system, to internal auditing processes, or to the intention to commence verification sometime in the future. in some instances there was no reference to auditing at all, perhaps attributable to the fact that the question on auditing/verification of data was one in a set of questions under the 'methodology' heading. the lack of external verification compromises the credibility of carbon accounting and thus raises serious doubts about the usefulness of the information to stakeholders (o'dwyer et al., 2005). recent developments in carbon accounting reflect a growing convergence toward a limited set of methodologies, with the ghg protocol taking a dominant position. this implies that there has been quite some progress in achieving technical commensuration. however, cognitive commensuration is far more difficult to achieve and more steps forward are still required. there continues to be a need for more clarity on how organizational boundaries are determined to designate the polluter, which ghg emissions should be measured and transparency on where emissions take place geographically. it now seems that the only way that firms are forced to adopt common methodologies on these issues of cognitive commensuration is when they operate within a framework of an emissions trading scheme that deals with the final step of achieving value commensuration. however, as long as the eu-ets is the only large trading scheme, value commensuration will not take place on a global level. even though cdp tries to have global coverage and uses institutional investors as leverage, this still remains
What was the tool used to mesaure the amino acid concentration?
amino acid concentrations were measured with an ion exchange chromatograph
The nutritional value of what species was measured?
proxy for nutritive value of the legume key species h. lanatus
After a sample of the plant was taken from each plot, there were two procedures that were done, what were they?
last day of drought treatment, frozen in liquid nitrogen and freezedried to determine protein-bound amino acids
total protein content in l g per mg fresh weight was determined as a proxy for nutritive value of the legume key species h. lanatus which was growing in all plots. one leaf sample per plot was taken on the last day of drought treatment, frozen in liquid nitrogen and freezedried to determine protein-bound amino acids. amino acids of the protein fraction were extracted. amino acid concentrations were measured with an ion exchange chromatograph (amino acid analyser lc 3000; biotronik se co. kg, berlin, germany) and protein content was calculated by pooling the content of each amino acid in the protein fraction.
What is  much of the criticism of carbon markets about?
much of the criticism of carbon markets is not about the idea of putting a monetary value on carbon per se, but about whether it is better to control greenhouse gas emissions through setting emission standards (and then allowing trading, socalled 'cap and trade'), or by charging the appropriate pollution taxes (hepburn 2006
Who makes a compelling economic case for pollution taxes?
weitzmann in his much-cited 1974 article 'prices vs. quantities' makes a compelling economic case for pollution taxes (weitzmann 1974
What is the key issue for this paper?
the key issue for this paper is that any economic mechanism for mitigating climate change (whether it be cap and trade or a tax) needs to pass through the filter of accountancy, and carbon accountancy therefore deserves close attention, both in policy and academic spheres
we now turn to consider how this case of accountancy professional organisations fits with wider debates about carbon markets. much of the criticism of carbon markets is not about the idea of putting a monetary value on carbon per se, but about whether it is better to control greenhouse gas emissions through setting emission standards (and then allowing trading, socalled 'cap and trade'), or by charging the appropriate pollution taxes (hepburn 2006). weitzmann in his much-cited 1974 article 'prices vs. quantities' makes a compelling economic case for pollution taxes (weitzmann 1974). but as we have argued elsewhere (mackenzie 2007), the emergence of the cap and trade eu ets was the only possible political option at the time in europe. the key issue for this paper is that any economic mechanism for mitigating climate change (whether it be cap and trade or a tax) needs to pass through the filter of accountancy, and carbon accountancy therefore deserves close attention, both in policy and academic spheres.
How many species of aphids are there and what are they?
eighteen different viruses have been identified in honey bees of the apis genus. some of these viruses are highly anecdotal, while others are latent and can be extremely prolific among the bees in our hives without causing any noticeable signs (37
Summarize the viral infection of bees?
for reasons as yet unknown, these viruses can become highly pathogenic to honey bees, causing trembling and paralysis that are observable at the colony entrance. this is the case with chronic paralysis virus (cpv) and acute paralysis virus (apv
Shorten the viral growth of bees?
it is not yet known how these viruses act to kill bees. no treatment exists to control such viruses, which can weaken or kill the colony. these pathologies can be stemmed by a supply of quality pollen from foraging bees. varroa weakens the bee's immune system and encourages viral growth (4
eighteen different viruses have been identified in honey bees of the apis genus. some of these viruses are highly anecdotal, while others are latent and can be extremely prolific among the bees in our hives without causing any noticeable signs (37). for reasons as yet unknown, these viruses can become highly pathogenic to honey bees, causing trembling and paralysis that are observable at the colony entrance. this is the case with chronic paralysis virus (cpv) and acute paralysis virus (apv). it is not yet known how these viruses act to kill bees. no treatment exists to control such viruses, which can weaken or kill the colony. these pathologies can be stemmed by a supply of quality pollen from foraging bees. varroa weakens the bee's immune system and encourages viral growth (4).
why is heat-related mortality higher in early summer?
people have not yet become accustomed to higher temperatures
what are the non-climatic confounding factors?
socio-economic influences, immunity patterns and drug resistance effects
What does the population's vulnerability depend on?
depends on economic and other determinants of a society's capacity to provide such measures
two main climatic impacts on health at a regional scale emerge from this review: direct heat-related mortality and morbidity, and a climate-mediated change in the incidence of infectious diseases. heat-related mortality is dominated by the difference between temperature extremes and the mean climate--especially early in summer when people have not yet become accustomed to higher temperatures--rather than by gradual increases in mean temperatures. projections of future climate suggest such increases in extremes in relation to mean temperatures may occur particularly in the midlatitudes. in addition, the effect of heatwaves is exacerbated in large cities owing to the urban heat island effect. as urban areas and urban population grow, vulnerability to heat-related mortality seems likely to increase in the future. studies of climatic influences on infectious diseases have mainly focused on the influence of enso. enso has been found to be related to incidences of malaria in south america, rift valley fever in east africa, dengue fever in thailand, hantavirus pulmonary syndrome in the southwestern usa, childhood diarrhoeal disease in peru and cholera in bangladesh. it is unclear at this stage whether global warming will significantly increase the amplitude of enso variability, but if so, the regions surrounding the pacific and indian oceans are expected to be most vulnerable to the associated changes in health risks. potential impacts of long-term trends in mean temperatures on health, for example, on malaria incidence in the african highlands, have not been reliably detected. the data available at present do not allow robust control for non-climatic confounding factors such as socio-economic influences, immunity patterns and drug resistance effects. however, regions bordering areas with high endemicity of climate-sensitive diseases, where temperatures at present limit the geographic distribution of disease (such as malaria in the african highlands) could be at risk in a warmer climate. early warning systems both for heatwaves and for expected outbreaks of infectious diseases can help to adapt to some of the effects of a changing climate, through measures such as opening airconditioned shopping malls at night-time to those who are most vulnerable to heat, or providing prophylactic treatment to those in danger from infectious diseases. however, population vulnerability still greatly depends on economic and other determinants of a society's capacity to provide such measures. land use and land cover change, as mentioned above, can magnify the effects of extreme climatic events, both on direct health outcomes (for example, heat mortality), and on ecologically mediated infectious diseases in any region of the world. therefore, to assess accurately future climate-change impacts on health, future projections of land-use change must be considered as well. as illustrated in fig. 2, the regions with the greatest burden of climate-sensitive diseases are also the regions with the lowest capacity to adapt to the new risks. africa--the continent where an estimated 90% of malaria occurs--has some of the lowest per capita emissions of the greenhouse gases that cause global warming. in this sense, global climate change not only presents new region-specific health risks, but also a global ethical challenge. to meet this challenge, precautionary approaches to mitigating anthropogenic greenhouse gases will be necessary, while research continues on the full range of climate-health mechanisms and potential future health impacts.
How long did it take to put the RECLAIM program in place in Los Angeles?
it took ten years to put the reclaim program into place in los angeles
When did the Kyoto market officially begin trading?
the kyoto market will not officially begin trading until 2008
What kind of initiatives could tackle issues of environmental injustice and carbon colonialism?
grassroots initiatives of all kinds could provide answers at low cost while also successfully tackling issues of environmental injustice and carbon colonialism
the of emissions trading means that precious time and resources are being channeled away from the solutions that could successfully resolve climate change in a just way. it took ten years to put the reclaim program into place in los angeles, and the kyoto market will not officially begin trading until 2008. by then national governments will have spent millions setting up their internal schemes in preparation for the international market. brokers, consultants, ngos, corporations, pr firms, speculators, as well as opportunistic experts and consulting firms that offer "science for sale" will be created in anticipation of the new carbon economy. all this energy, investment and time could be put into more positive and effective strategies to resolve climate change, and at the same time, to combat environmental injustice. besides central government measures, from taxation and subsidies to laws, grassroots initiatives of all kinds could provide answers at low cost while also successfully tackling issues of environmental injustice and carbon colonialism.
what is avswat?
the avswat (swat running on arcview gis
how basins are sub divided?
the basins have been subdivided using the threshold values given in table 1. these values are obtained iteratively to divide the basin into a reasonable number of sub-basins so as to account for the spatial variability
what happens after mapping the basins?
after mapping the basins for terrain, landuse and soil, each of the basins has been simulated for hydrological response by imposing the weather conditions predicted by hadley centre (output of regional climate model - hadrm2 version) for control and ghg climate conditions
the avswat (swat running on arcview gis) distributed hydrologic model has been used on each of the river basins given in table 1. the basins have been subdivided using the threshold values given in table 1. these values are obtained iteratively to divide the basin into a reasonable number of sub-basins so as to account for the spatial variability. after mapping the basins for terrain, landuse and soil, each of the basins has been simulated for hydrological response by imposing the weather conditions predicted by hadley centre (output of regional climate model - hadrm2 version) for control and ghg climate conditions.
What is ONF?
olympic national forest (onf) has 3200 km of roads within its boundaries, many of which were built to support logging operations prior to 1990. roads are a potential source of sediment that can be transported to streams, thereby damaging aquatic habitat
ongoing program of ONF?
onf has an ongoing program of decommissioning roads to restore forest habitat, limit erosion, and reduce costs. during the past decade, major winter storms on onf caused flooding that dam aged roads, campgrounds, and other infrastructure
How to evaluating the climate change in ONF?
onf is responding to climate change by evaluating road maintenance and decommissioning with an eye toward higher flood levels and more frequent flooding. this may lead to decommis sioning of some roads, such as those parallel to large rivers, which will be frequently damaged and expensive to repair
olympic national forest (onf) has 3200 km of roads within its boundaries, many of which were built to support logging operations prior to 1990. roads are a potential source of sediment that can be transported to streams, thereby damaging aquatic habitat. damaged roads are expensive to maintain and repair. onf has an ongoing program of decommissioning roads to restore forest habitat, limit erosion, and reduce costs. during the past decade, major winter storms on onf caused flooding that dam aged roads, campgrounds, and other infrastructure. increased winter flooding is a certain outcome of a warmer climate in this region. therefore, onf is responding to climate change by evaluating road maintenance and decommissioning with an eye toward higher flood levels and more frequent flooding. this may lead to decommis sioning of some roads, such as those parallel to large rivers, which will be frequently damaged and expensive to repair. it may also require different road standards, such as larger culverts to accommodate increased waterflow. this response by onf to the effects of a warmer climate demonstrates that it is possible to address physical, biological, and economic factors within the single context of road management. projections of future hydrographs of rivers on the olympic peninsula, including magnitude and frequency of peak flows, is helping to inform decisions about road maintenance and decommissioning. it is a good example of incor porating climate change thinking directly into resource management and engineering.
Define corporate"multi stakeholder"?
environmental ngos have also been hypnotized by corporate "multistakeholder" dialogues. part of the formula for developing an image of the "good corporate citizen" is to enlist the help of friendly ngos in controversial activities, effectively outsourcing legitimacy
What are NGOs corporations?
environmental ngos can therefore provide a moral stamp of approval for corporations involved in emissions trading. the conflict of interest involved in verifying the emissions of companies who are paying you to do so while also providing general funding for your organization, is obvious
(WWE) representative talks fund Explain?
working with business is as important to us as munching bamboo is for a panda," according to a world wide fund for nature (wwf) representative
environmental ngos have also been hypnotized by corporate "multistakeholder" dialogues. part of the formula for developing an image of the "good corporate citizen" is to enlist the help of friendly ngos in controversial activities, effectively outsourcing legitimacy. environmental ngos can therefore provide a moral stamp of approval for corporations involved in emissions trading. the conflict of interest involved in verifying the emissions of companies who are paying you to do so while also providing general funding for your organization, is obvious. "working with business is as important to us as munching bamboo is for a panda," according to a world wide fund for nature (wwf) representative. unsurprisingly, since wwf receives approximately ps1 million a year from corporations in the uk alone and has an operational budget larger than the world trade organization.23recently wwf stated that emissions trading in the european union could be an "important element" in climate policy and help to "prevent dangerous climate change as cost-effectively as possible"24
Is it suggested that Twitter is likely to be embedded in the close protest ecologies in which they operate?
the previous section suggested that technologies such as twitter are likely to be deeply embedded in the surrounding protest ecologies in which they operate
Are social technologies seen as offering flexible means to access or navigate a specific space?
recognizing this point may be important particularly when dealing with complex protest spaces: that is, contexts in which multiple actors (from individuals to organizations to coalitions) with different ideational and organizational ideologies coconstitute the protest space, and in which social technologies are perceived as offering a flexible means for both organizers and individuals to access and navigate that space
Is there a focus on contention under authoritarian regimes by the author?
widening our focus beyond contention under authoritarian regimes
the previous section suggested that technologies such as twitter are likely to be deeply embedded in the surrounding protest ecologies in which they operate. recognizing this point may be important particularly when dealing with complex protest spaces: that is, contexts in which multiple actors (from individuals to organizations to coalitions) with different ideational and organizational ideologies coconstitute the protest space, and in which social technologies are perceived as offering a flexible means for both organizers and individuals to access and navigate that space. widening our focus beyond contention under authoritarian regimes, such complexity has been argued to characterize protest in postindustrialized democracies (bennett, breunig, givens, 2008). it also specifically describes the protests in london and copenhagen about the cop15 summit, which we will use to illustrate our argument. putting twitter in context in such cases involves not only looking at ever more technologies, actors and uses but approaching it from the perspective of its roles in the protest ecology. there are at least two important and complementary aspects to twitter from this perspective: its role as both networking agent in and window on the protest space.
How did they measure genetic diversity and estimate gene flow?
we made collections of branch fragments from c 3000 corals from three sites at each of the four regional locations
Why did they only sample the reef crests?
to eliminate effects of depth or habitat
to measure genetic diversity and estimate gene flow we made collections of branch fragments from c 3000 corals from three sites at each of the four regional locations (fig. 1). we chose five common and widespread species with a range of morphologies and life histories, whose ranges extend southwards from the gbr to lhi. one is a broadcast spawner acropora valida ), three are brooders with internal fertilization seriatopora hystrix styllophora pistillata and acropora cuneata and one is a brooder of asexually generated planulae that may also broadcast spawn pocillopora damicornis harrison wallace 1990). we sampled reef crests only, to eliminate effects of depth or habitat. each of the three local sites were separated by 1-5 km. at each site, we collected branch fragments from c 50 colonies/species, within an area <1000 m2. we avoided collecting from adjacent colonies that may have formed asexually through recent injury. we determined the genotype of each colony for each of the 4-7 variable allozyme loci as described by ayre hughes 2000. allele frequencies for the gbr collections are presented in ayre hughes (2000). we estimated the magnitude of
What is the experience of school made of?
the lived experience of school is an inextricable combination of actions, relations, emotions and thoughts, and not only the cognitive acquisition of curriculum contents
What makes the social and relational aspects of the educative experience a challenge?
what makes the social and relational aspects of the educative experience a challenge is that these experiences occur in a bureaucratic educational system. such rationalised systems emphasise efficient organisational models and, by and large, are inevitable in our public educational systems
What can the rational and bureaucratic system do to the educational experience?
the inherent rational and bureaucratic aspects of the system, in other words, can continuously and subtlety counteract attempts to hold a focus on, and build up meaningful symbolic content, in the educational experience
the emotional and affective aspects of the educational practice are seldom, if at all, viewed as something to combat, but they are certainly not perceived as being equal in importance to the cognitive aspects of school life. the lived experience of school is an inextricable combination of actions, relations, emotions and thoughts, and not only the cognitive acquisition of curriculum contents. the indifference towards, or the resistance to the arguments that compel the educational system to improve the social climate is probably related to this deeply-rooted cultural dualism and to its devaluing of emotional aspects, relative to the cognitive. this view is thus dualistic but also hierarchic. bureaucratic system further, what makes the social and relational aspects of the educative experience a challenge is that these experiences occur in a bureaucratic educational system. such rationalised systems emphasise efficient organisational models and, by and large, are inevitable in our public educational systems, but they imply and perhaps enforce a kind of professionally detached relationship that will counteract the requirements of a warm and responsive social climate. authentically professional teachers possess the ability to have warm and genuine relationship with their pupils and to establish a group climate that supports positive relationships among the pupils and motivate them to learn. yet, teachers find themselves in bureaucratic organisations that nowadays tend to define the educational mission narrowly, focusing just the academic standards of the curriculum. professional relations also might be defined as detached and rational. thus, some bureaucratic characteristics of the educational system themselves might contradict or hamper the creation of a positive climate and could represent a major inherent contradiction in the educational system that teachers have to understand, handle and often solve on their own (allodi 2002a fischman et al. 2006 ). good relations or rational techniques the educational system brings together and makes use of two opposite types of authority-- as weber 1947 defined them--the charismatic and the technical-rational. awareness of this contradiction between the rationality of the educational system and the relational aspects of the social climate could contribute to understanding of difficulties connected with the application of intervention programs aimed at improving the climate or pupils' behaviour. the principles of an intervention might be relevant, but their implementation in a program risks being heavily rationalised and ending up eventually in arid instrumental techniques; the efficacy residing in their qualities and emotional meanings could be lost. the inherent rational and bureaucratic aspects of the system, in other words, can continuously and subtlety counteract attempts to hold a focus on, and build up meaningful symbolic content, in the educational experience. the risk is recurrent and ever-present, even in this present attempt to analyse resistance to social climate. social climate or discipline? another challenge lies in the possible disciplinarian interpretation of the concept of social climate. here a risk is to focus one-sidedly on pupil behaviour that is perceived as
What substantially influences radiative forcing and premature deaths?
gases and particles
Monitoring and enforcement of implementing emission-control technologies carry how much cost?
substantial costs
The greatest climate benefits come from what type of truck in Brazil and India?
diesel trucks
gases and particles both substantially influence radiative forcing and premature deaths. hence policies should consider the effects of all emitted compounds. diesel-vehicle-emission trends in na/me lead to warming even with tight standards owing to fuel desulphurization (though less warming than in the baseline scenario). in china, tightening diesel standards leads to positive forcing due to elimination of large baseline increases in organic carbon, though net forcing relative to 2010 is still negative (and health/agriculture benefits are large). in other regions, reduced emissions from either petrol or diesel vehicles under our tightstandard scenario always mitigate 2030 forcing (relative to 2010 or relative to the 2030 baseline). hence in nearly all cases tightening of emission standards would achieve multiple goals rather than advancing some whereas setting back others. our study shows that current vehicle-emission trends, if fully implemented, will substantially decrease radiative forcing, premature deaths and ozone-related agricultural yield losses for north america and europe, with the opposite for africa and the middle east. for china, india and latin america, the current path reduces forcing but increases deaths and ozone-related agricultural yield losses (the latter is crop dependent for latin america). tightening vehicle standards in the developing world leads to a decrease in forcing, deaths and agricultural yield losses nearly everywhere. although implementing emission-control technologies, monitoring and enforcement carry substantial costs, the value of the health and agricultural benefits is very large. as health and agricultural benefits are typically greatest where controls are tightened, the local benefit-cost ratio may be quite favourable for adoption of tight standards. climate benefits are felt more broadly than air-quality improvements, and have much larger uncertainties, but consideration of the climate benefits could help generate extra support for what have traditionally been regarded as purely air-quality regulations. the greatest climate benefits come from controls on diesel trucks in brazil and india and on petrol vehicles in na/me. the emission standards examined here do not directly affect co2, emissions of which from vehicles are projected to increase substantially3,9. strategies such as increased fuel efficiency, mode switching (for example truck to rail, cars to mass transit) or electrification of vehicles (powered by renewable energy) are required to reduce co2 emissions and long-term climate change, and would complement the emission standards examined here. our results support previous studies22,23indicating that the substantial benefits for both climate and public health can be maximized by carefully constructed emission-control policies.
In using empirical models to predict the success of organisms across the range of conditions studied, when is extrapolation a possibility?
empirical models, such as regression models with climatic variables as predictors and epidemic parameters as response variables, can be used to predict the success of organisms across the range of conditions studied (18), with extrapolation a possibility when the mechanisms of relationship are sufficiently understood
Why is it difficult to study climate change effects directly?
because climate change occurs slowly and variably, it is difficult to study its effects directly
What attribute of data on geographic distribution of disease makes it an example of model inputs having a high degree of uncertainty?
for example, data on the geographic distribution of disease are still surprisingly difficult to acquire
coakley et al. (38) discussed several approaches that have been used for modeling the effect of climate change on disease. climate matching is applied by quantifying the climatic features of locations so that the success of an organism in a reference climate can be used to predict the success of that organism in other locations with similar climates where the organism has not yet been introduced or where the climate is expected to change to become similar to the reference climate. empirical models, such as regression models with climatic variables as predictors and epidemic parameters as response variables, can be used to predict the success of organisms across the range of conditions studied (18), with extrapolation a possibility when the mechanisms of relationship are sufficiently understood. simulation models are based on theoretical relationships and can be used to predict outcomes under a range of scenarios. because climate change occurs slowly and variably, it is difficult to study its effects directly. temporal variability in climate can be used to draw inference about the potential effects of climate change through the argument that temporary effects of a year with unusual climatic features are likely to represent the effects of longer-term changes. more recently, scherm (126, 127) has identified three continuing problems with the application of models for predicting climate change effects on disease. first, model inputs have a high degree of uncertainty (75, 125). for example, data on the geographic distribution of disease are still surprisingly difficult to acquire. second, nonlinear relationships (21) and thresholds in the relationship between climatic variables and epidemiological responses (104, 128) make it difficult to collect sufficient data for a clear predictive understanding. third, the potential for adaptation by plants and pathogens is another complicating factor that is often ignored in models. at the time of the review by coakley et al. (38), no studies had been published using
Explain 402 projects ?
402 projects available on the cdm executive board's website on nov 3, 2005, only 8 projects explicitly address rural energy provision. another 50 biomass power projects with capacities of 3-10 mw, using agricultural wastes such as rice husk, generate indirect benefits for the rural population
what is 50 biomass power projects ?
50 biomass power projects with capacities of 3-10 mw, using agricultural wastes such as rice husk, generate indirect benefits for the rural population. due to the demand for the agricultural wastes, farmers can now sell them to power plant operators and increase their income
Why prices for rice husk have quadrupled?
in india, prices for rice husk have quadrupled over the last three years. however, it is likely that the major share of agricultural wastes will come from wealthy farmers (being proportional to production levels) and that the poor, landless rural population will only marginally benefit. 46 small hydro plants of a few mw are built in rural areas and thus could provide intermittent benefits through job creation and electricity provision for the surrounding villages
with respect to adaptation, this may in fact be true. however, with respect to cdm, the provision of clean energy to rural households is rare. of 402 projects available on the cdm executive board's website on nov 3, 2005, only 8 projects explicitly address rural energy provision. another 50 biomass power projects with capacities of 3-10 mw, using agricultural wastes such as rice husk, generate indirect benefits for the rural population. due to the demand for the agricultural wastes, farmers can now sell them to power plant operators and increase their income. in india, prices for rice husk have quadrupled over the last three years. however, it is likely that the major share of agricultural wastes will come from wealthy farmers (being proportional to production levels) and that the poor, landless rural population will only marginally benefit. 46 small hydro plants of a few mw are built in rural areas and thus could provide intermittent benefits through job creation and electricity provision for the surrounding villages. however, in most cases, the power will be delivered to the cities and migrant labor employed for the construction work, which in turn will lead to conflicts about water use. so the development impact for the direct vicinity of the plant may on average be negative.
Is the data-set intended to be used to represent climate?
it is not the intention that this data-set be used to represent climate at a point, or in sub-regions of a country; the intended use is in research that spans many countries, and where it is necessary to average climatic behaviour over politically defined areas
When considering the vulnerability of human and natural systems to present climate variability, would this data-set be relevant?
this data-set may be particularly relevant when considering the vulnerability of human and natural systems to present climate variability, and to future climate change
Does this data-set note all possible resources?
research examining vulnerability and adaptation to climate impacts might employ comparable data from a wide range of sources; we note a few possible sources below
this data-set is publicly available (http://ipccddc.cru.uea.ac.uk/) in the form of ascii files. it is not the intention that this data-set be used to represent climate at a point, or in sub-regions of a country; the intended use is in research that spans many countries, and where it is necessary to average climatic behaviour over politically defined areas. this data-set may be particularly relevant when considering the vulnerability of human and natural systems to present climate variability, and to future climate change. research examining vulnerability and adaptation to climate impacts might employ comparable data from a wide range of sources; we note a few possible sources below:
What is the objective of the study in this selection?
to enhance understanding of the process of climate change adaptation and to facilitate the planning and implementation of sustainable adaptation strategies deeper consideration of the factors that impede adaptation is required
What were some barriers to this study?
our review illustrates that: 1) local level studies that reveal barriers to adaptation are diverse, although there is a propensity for studies on small-holder farmers; 2) many of the studies identify several barriers to adaptation, but appreciation of their interactions and compounded impacts remains scarce; and 3) most of the barriers uncovered relate broadly to biophysical, knowledge and financial constraints on agricultural production and rural development
How do the researchers in this study suggest overcoming the barriers to this study?
we argue that research on barriers needs to start asking why these barriers emerge, how they work together to shape adaptation processes, who they affect most, and what is needed to overcome them
first author: full name and affiliation; plus email address if corresponding author [sheona shackleton*, department of environmental science, rhodes university, s.shackleton@ru.ac.za] second author: full name and affiliation; plus email address if corresponding author [gina ziervogel, department of environmental and geographical science, university of cape town] third author: full name and affiliation; plus email address if corresponding author [susannah sallu, sustainability research institute, school of earth and environment, university of leeds] forth author: full name and affiliation; plus email address if corresponding author [thomas gill, office of international programs, college of agricultural sciences, 106 ag admin bldg, the pennsylvania state university, university park, pa. 16802 fifth author: full name and affiliation; plus email address if corresponding author [petra tschakert, department of geography and the earth and environmental systems institute, 322 walker building, the pennsylvania state university, university park, pa 16802] to enhance understanding of the process of climate change adaptation and to facilitate the planning and implementation of sustainable adaptation strategies deeper consideration of the factors that impede adaptation is required. barriers to climate change adaptation are, consequently, being increasingly reported. but, despite this progress, knowledge of barriers that hamper adaptation in developing countries remains limited, especially in relation to underlying causes of vulnerability and low adaptive capacity. to further improve understanding of barriers to adaptation and identify gaps in the state-of-the-art knowledge, we undertook a synthesis of empirical literature from sub-saharan africa focusing on vulnerable, natural resource dependent communities and livelihoods. our review illustrates that: 1) local level studies that reveal barriers to adaptation are diverse, although there is a propensity for studies on small-holder farmers; 2) many of the studies identify several barriers to adaptation, but appreciation of their interactions and compounded impacts remains scarce; and 3) most of the barriers uncovered relate broadly to biophysical, knowledge and financial constraints on agricultural production and rural development. more hidden and under-acknowledged political, social and psychological barriers are rarely mentioned, unless captured in studies that specifically set out to investigate these. we finish our review by highlighting gaps in understanding and by suggesting future research directions, focussing on issues of social justice. we argue that research on barriers needs to start asking why these barriers emerge, how they work together to shape adaptation processes, who they affect most, and what is needed to overcome them. researchers, policy makers and practitioners are increasingly acknowledging that neither autonomous nor planned adaptation to climate change is necessarily materialising in the ways expected or at the pace desired.1,2,3 practical examples show that adaptation, if it is to effect socially equitable and environmentally sustainable change on the ground, requires so much more than simply providing the right technology, information, and sufficient funding; the dominant approach to
How many types of approaches were being used to probe the consequences of climate change on zooplankton, from the species to the ecosystem level?
i select two types of approach: a simple empirical approach and a more complex, mechanistic one
What does this modelling approach allow?
this modelling approach also allows one to investigate the effect of climate change on thousands of species, without requiring sophisticated and time-consuming mechanistic models that depend heavily on detailed knowledge of processes for each species, which are likely to be lacking for all but a few species
What are other types of models useful for?
other types of model are also useful for predicting future impacts
here, i briefly illustrate some of the approaches that are being used to probe the consequences of climate change on zooplankton, from the species to the ecosystem level. for brevity, i select two types of approach: a simple empirical approach and a more complex, mechanistic one. other types of model are also useful for predicting future impacts; one of some interest is species distribution modelling (climate envelope modelling), which operates on the premise that an organism can only survive within a niche characterized by physical and chemical environmental factors. this approach has rarely been applied in marine systems, but is commonly used in terrestrial systems (e.g. arau'jo and rahbek, 2006). this modelling approach also allows one to investigate the effect of climate change on thousands of species, without requiring sophisticated and time-consuming mechanistic models that depend heavily on detailed knowledge of processes for each species, which are likely to be lacking for all but a few species. another promising approach in marine systems is to force existing coupled population-physical models with output from climate models. many population models that have been coupled to hydrodynamic models describe the life history, demography, and figure 7. time-series of (a) the pdo index summed annually over may-september; (b) annual anomalies of calcofi zooplankton volumes from the california current region; (c) coho salmon survival; and (d) biomass anomalies of cold-water copepod species. positive (negative) pdo index indicates warmer (cooler) than normal temperatures in coastal waters off north america (from peterson and schwing, 2003, with permission from aaas).
Level of exposure to heat stress was highly correlated with which measurements?
level of exposure to heat stress was highly correlated with place-specific measurements of ecological variables-vegetation density and open space
The vulnerability of warmer neighborhoods was exacerbated by residents' lack of what?
the vulnerability of warmer neighborhoods was exacerbated by residents' lack of adequate social and material resources to cope with extreme heat
A much higher percentage of roofs in the poor neighborhoods were which kind of roof?
a much higher percentage of roofs in the poor neighborhoods were ''rolled'' roofs
conclusions this study used multi-disciplinary data to address an important public health problem that is under intense scrutiny by international and governmental agencies seeking to reduce illness, mortality, and other costs of extreme heat experienced by cities in all types of climate regimes iclei, 1998 ). we found significant 2003 summertime temperature variations among phoenix neighborhoods. simulated estimates of exposure to heat stress showed that the warmer neighborhoods more often exceeded the ''danger'' threshold in summer 2003. unequal exposure was a chronic summer problem as well as an acute problem during a heat wave when differences in the heat index increased significantly. in answering our first research question, we found a pattern of positive correlations between heat stress exposure and percentages of poor and minority inhabitants. higher-income, predominately white neighborhoods were more comfortable places than lower-income, predominately hispanic neighborhoods, and middle-income neighborhoods varied widely in htci values. with respect to our second question, our findings challenged the idea that the heat island is a smooth urban-to-rural gradient in sprawling urban areas. level of exposure to heat stress was highly correlated with place-specific measurements of ecological variables-vegetation density and open space--regardless of neighborhood locations. this is an important fact about the spatial distribution of the uhi, its relationship to the socio-ecology of neighborhoods, and its potential contributions to climate-related health inequalities in cities. estimates of local temperature variation and human exposure to excessive heat in this study were far more spatially specific than the standard practice of reporting temperature from a single central weather station for a city, which may significantly overestimate or under-estimate weather conditions in diverse parts of a region (e.g., basu samet, 2002 brazel et al., 2000 ). the vulnerability of warmer neighborhoods was exacerbated by residents' lack of adequate social and material resources to cope with extreme heat. in answer to our third question, social networks were weakest in the warmest places. and contrary to the impression of many phoenicians and summer visitors, desert-living does not come with an entitlement to air conditioning and a swimming pool. warmer neighborhoods had fewer of these amenities because of the age or price of their homes. a much higher percentage of roofs in the poor neighborhoods were ''rolled'' roofs, an asphalt product that is even inferior to shingles. in sum, our research supports the fundamental environmental justice hypothesis: risks incurred from environmental hazards are greater for marginalized populations. the practical use of this study is to suggest that reducing temperatures in vulnerable urban neighborhoods should be a priority driven by informed policy. many cities and coalitions of cities, supported by national and international organizations, such as the us environmental protection agency and the international council for local environmental initiatives, have initiated programs for heat island mitigation using three principle strategies: increasing vegetation cover in public spaces, adopting standards for reflective roofing and paving materials, and lowering anthropogenic emissions city of phoenix, 2004 rosenfeld, akbari, romm, pomerantz, 1998 rosenfeld et al., 1995 ). heat/ health warning systems initiated by noaa have also been instituted in phoenix and many other cities sheridan kalkstein, 2004 ). more could be done, however, to target heat reduction resources and heat warnings to the specific places where they are most needed. prime candidates for these programs are low-income inner-city neighborhoods and the burgeoning number of middle class communities being built on the urban fringes of development. the poor, minority inner-city neighborhoods of phoenix, similar to those in many cities, lack adequate housing, shade, and green open space. there is little new construction, so changing building requirements for new homes is not an option to improve conditions in those neighborhoods. however, public expenditures to improve the quality of existing housing and provide shade, green parks and community swimming pools would be effective heat mitigation measures and would increase the health and comfort of residents. neighborhoods built for the masses on the edges of metropolitan areas ultimately will house many more people than those in the inner-city. the agricultural fields and desert fringe surrounding phoenix, once the province of a few wealthy settlements in natural settings, is being carved into smaller and smaller lots to house middle class families. as new tract development illustrates,
What has chosen in order to achieve a climate gradient from temperate-semi-(or sub-) continental to submediterranean (SM)?
twelve field sites were chosen along a transect from midgermany (muhlhausen, state of thuringen) to southern france [montagne de lure (mdl), department des alpes de haute provence] in order to achieve a climate gradient from temperate-semi-(or sub-) continental to submediterranean (sm) (fig. 1
What is the distance between the outermost two sites?
the distance between the outermost two sites is 875 km
What has included in this transect (1) to increase the variability of environmental parameters?
to increase the variability of environmental parameters, we included in this transect (1) the two sites from the local (topo)climatic gradient caused by different exposure [south-west (sw) versus north-east (ne)] as described by keitel et al (2003); and (2) a height gradient at the southernmost site from 1030 to 1650 m above sea level (a.s.l
twelve field sites were chosen along a transect from midgermany (muhlhausen, state of thuringen) to southern france [montagne de lure (mdl), department des alpes de haute provence] in order to achieve a climate gradient from temperate-semi-(or sub-) continental to submediterranean (sm) (fig. 1). the distance between the outermost two sites is 875 km. to increase the variability of environmental parameters, we included in this transect (1) the two sites from the local (topo)climatic gradient caused by different exposure [south-west (sw) versus north-east (ne)] as described by keitel et al (2003); and (2) a height gradient at the southernmost site from 1030 to 1650 m above sea level (a.s.l.) table 1 depicts the main characteristics of the field sites along the transect.
What is the RCP4.5 scenario?
stabilizes co2 concentrations by mid-century thomson et al ., 2011
Why have we low confidence in quantitative projections of the collection of CMIP5 models on the timing of Arctic-wide sea ice loss?
there are a number of reasons for this, primarily the spread in the results, which in turn may depend not only on natural variability but also on the models' different formulations of sea ice physics, treatment of clouds, radiation, and atmospheric and ocean dynamics karlsson and svensson 2013; overland and wang 2013
What are the two radiative forcing scenarios?
mitigation and business-as-usual
on the basis of two radiative forcing scenarios (mitigation and business-as-usual) in the cmip5 collection of gcms we note a large difference in surface air temperatures in the arctic at the end of the 21st century, which makes a strong case to begin mitigation activities for greenhouse gases the rcp4.5 scenario, which stabilizes co2 concentrations by mid-century thomson et al ., 2011], is a plausible target if decisive actions are begun. we consider that our estimates of future arctic temperature increases are realistic as we are highlighting the radiative components of the model projections by averaging spatially and over a large number of models. for the decadal scale out to 2040, we have low confidence in quantitative projections of the collection of cmip5 models on the timing of arctic-wide sea ice loss. there are a number of reasons for this, primarily the spread in the results, which in turn may depend not only on natural variability but also on the models' different formulations of sea ice physics, treatment of clouds, radiation, and atmospheric and ocean dynamics karlsson and svensson 2013; overland and wang 2013]. there is a wide gap in projected timing overland et al. (c) 2013 the authors. 6
In which bid level range does the probability distribution function (PDF) falls sharply?
the pdf function falls sharply starting from bid level $20 up to bid level $300
In which bid level does the proportion of 'Yes' responses rise?
at the bid level $400, the proportion of 'yes' responses rises
Were any statistically significant difference found when examining differences in socio-economic and attitudinal characteristics between respondents who were presented with the $400 amount and all other respondents?
the differences in socio-economic and attitudinal characteristics of two groups of respondents - those who were presented with the $400 amount and all others - were examined. no statistically significant differences were observed in terms of age, education income or occupation. no statistically significant difference existed with respect to respondents' familiarity, attitude towards climate change or their level of concerns for climate change
the probability distribution function (pdf) of the stated wtp (responses to the first wtp question) for the cprs based on a total of 634 valid observations for the wtp question is presented in figure 4. the pdf function falls sharply starting from bid level $20 up to bid level $300. at the bid level $400, the proportion of 'yes' responses rises. the proportion of respondents saying 'yes' to $400 was significantly (chi square=3.8, p <0.05) higher than the proportion of respondents saying 'yes' to $300. the differences in socio-economic and attitudinal characteristics of two groups of respondents - those who were presented with the $400 amount and all others - were examined. no statistically significant differences were observed in terms of age, education income or occupation. no statistically significant difference existed with respect to respondents' familiarity, attitude towards climate change or their level of concerns for climate change.
How do some developers of IAMs believe uncertainty over climate sensitivity can be handled?
they believe that the uncertainty can be handled by assigning probability distributions to certain parameters and then running monte carlo simulations
Why is the described uncertainty handling not helpful?
the problem is that we don't know the correct probability distributions that should be applied to various parameters, and different distributions - even if they all have the same mean and variance - can yield very different results for expected outcomes, and thus for estimates of the scc.5
What function do some developers of IAMs say we don't know?
we don't know what the "correct" damage function is
some developers of iams understand that there is considerable uncertainty over climate 5 5 sensitivity and that we don't know what the "correct" damage function is. but they think they have a solution to this problem. they believe that the uncertainty can be handled by assigning probability distributions to certain parameters and then running monte carlo simulations. unfortunately this won't help. the problem is that we don't know the correct probability distributions that should be applied to various parameters, and different distributions - even if they all have the same mean and variance - can yield very different results for expected outcomes, and thus for estimates of the scc.5
what do robust decision frameworks suggest?
aced with deep uncertainty about the future, robust decision frameworks suggest that it is most effective to work backwards from the decision context to the technical and information requirements of the problem, relying heavily on participatory processes that bring together the analysis team and the various parties to the decision to structure the problem appropriately for meeting stakeholder needs
In RDM, problems are structured according to which major concepts?
in rdm, problems are structured according to three major concepts: multiple views of the future, a 'robustness' criterion, and an iterative vulnerabilityandresponseoption analysis (figure 2
Without using simulation models, how would decision makers act?
without using simulation models, decision makers can think through the combinations of climatic and socioeconomic factors that would cause one or more proposed policies to fail to achieve their goals (see refs 120,121 for examples related to road design and forest management
faced with deep uncertainty about the future, robust decision frameworks suggest that it is most effective to work backwards from the decision context to the technical and information requirements of the problem, relying heavily on participatory processes that bring together the analysis team and the various parties to the decision to structure the problem appropriately for meeting stakeholder needs. this premise is shared generally with all 'bottom-up', 'risk-based', or 'vulnerability-based' climate change impacts frameworks.84,116-119one example is rdm, which has recently been applied in a number of climate-related decision problems. in rdm, problems are structured according to three major concepts: multiple views of the future, a 'robustness' criterion, and an iterative vulnerabilityandresponseoption analysis (figure 2). the use of robustness as a satisficing criterion provides a major point of departure from predictthen-act approaches. decision analytic frameworks that attempt to maximize expected utility will tend to rank alternative policy options contingent on the bestestimate probability distributions to suggest a single best option. robust frameworks instead suggest a set of choices that perform reasonably well compared to the alternatives across a wide range of future scenarios, often sacrificing some performance in order to reduce sensitivity to broken assumptions and thus minimize regret under particular futures. rdm and related approaches offer not only a quantitative methodology for incorporating large volumes of information from sophisticated models into decision processes, but also a heuristic framework for planning and project design. without using simulation models, decision makers can think through the combinations of climatic and socioeconomic factors that would cause one or more proposed policies to fail to achieve their goals (see refs 120,121 for examples related to road design and forest management). in addition, relatively simple models are often at the core of such analyses. for example, in the sea-level rise case study we discuss later, the cost-benefit model used to evaluate the robustness of the different policy alternatives was essentially a simple spreadsheet. this relates to the feasibility, particularly for resource-limited, local projects, of constructing large numbers of futures for assessing the viability of policy options over as comprehensive a set of assumptions as possible. as detailed in the case studies below, often the conversion of an existing, computationally inexpensive management model with which the users are already familiar (e.g., to run overnight in 'batch' mode) suffices for quickly and simply testing assumptions over many inputs. the idea of using multiple views of the future to explore policy options is not unique to robust decision frameworks, but also informs traditional scenario planning methods. such methods rest on the presumption that a small collection of stories about different futures can help planners better prepare for surprises.122scenarios can be either normative, exploratory, or have aspects of both. normative scenarios are prescriptive and explicitly values-based, in that they describe a future that may be realized only through specific policy actions (e.g., a greenhouse gas stabilization scenario). in contrast, exploratory scenarios describe the future according to known processes of change and pose 'what if?' questions.20however, traditional scenario methods struggle to address two questions: which futures to highlight, and how to inform real decisions. robust decision frameworks address these issues, in part by viewing scenarios as cases where a candidate strategy fails to meet decision makers' goals and standards, as evaluated against a large number of future states of the world.123
What climate variable changes affect surface water resources?
air temperature, precipitation, and evapotranspiration
What information do you need to be able to quantify the impact of climate change on groundwater resources?
requires not only reliable forecasting of changes in the major climatic variables, but also accurate estimation of groundwater recharge
Is it easy to determine groundwater recharge rates?
accurate spatial and temporal characterization of groundwater recharge can be difficult, however, due to its dependence on a multitude of physical factors such as land use and hydrogeological heterogeneity
changes in future climate will alter regional hydrologic cycles and subsequently impact the quantity and quality of regional water resources gleick, 1989 ). while climate change affects surface water resources directly through changes in the major long-term climate variables such as air temperature, precipitation, and evapotranspiration, the relationship between the changing climate variables and groundwater is more complicated and difficult to quantify. groundwater resources are related to climate change through the direct interaction with surface water resources, such as lakes and rivers, and indirectly through the recharge process. therefore, quantifying the impact of climate change on groundwater resources requires not only reliable forecasting of changes in the major climatic variables, but also accurate estimation of groundwater recharge. accurate spatial and temporal characterization of groundwater recharge can be difficult, however, due to its dependence on a multitude of physical factors such as land use and hydrogeological heterogeneity lerner et al., 1990). groundwater recharge can also be significantly impacted by snowmelt and frozen soil conditions in northern climates, and furthermore be complicated by the issue of scale. quantifying the input (i.e., recharge) to the groundwater system is critical for developing an effective watershed management strategy that will ensure the protection of groundwater resources not only from climate change, but also from other stresses such as urbanization robins, 1998 ). understanding recharge is also necessary to properly assess aquifer vulnerability to contamination, since the transport of most groundwater contaminants, with the exception of density driven contaminants such as dnapls, to saturated aquifers occurs in the aqueous phase as part of the recharge process foster, 1998 ). this is especially important in areas where the underlying aquifers are exploited extensively for drinking water purposes. assessing the impact of climate change on groundwater resources requires a physically based approach for estimating groundwater recharge. the method must not only account for temporal variations in the climatic variables and their impact on the hydrologic cycle, but also consider the spatial variation of surface and subsurface properties across the study area. many climate change studies have focused on modelling the temporal change in the hydrologic processes and ignored or relied on average spatial characteristics due to model limitations or coarse discretization schemes. the objective of this paper is to present a physically based methodology that can be used to characterize not only the temporal impact, but also the spatial effect of climate change on groundwater recharge. the method is based on the hydrologic software package help3 coupled with a geographic information system (gis). the method is used in an example application to simulate the past conditions and possible future changes in the hydrologic cycle of the grand river watershed in ontario, canada.
What are two examples of the use of water conservation measures as an adaptation mechanism for agriculture?
for example, snow management could be used to increase water storage,(64)while equipment maintenance and upkeep could help to reduce water waste.(62
What was done to deal with historic water shortages in southern Alberta?
irrigation canals were upgraded, water storage capacity was increased, and irrigation management was improved
What alternative offers significant advantages over tillage summerfallowing with respect to soil erosion and retention of organic carbon in the soil?
use of minimum tillage and chemical fallow techniques offer significant advantages over tillage summerfallowing with respect to soil erosion and retention of organic carbon in the soil
these adaptations could be implemented by a number of different groups, including individual producers, government organizations, and the agri-food industry.(1)these groups have differing interests and priorities, which may at times conflict. therefore, before determining which adaptation options should be promoted or implemented, they should be carefully and thoroughly assessed see box 5). much of the adaptation research in agriculture has focused on water shortages. common suggestions for addressing water-related concerns include improving irrigation systems and adjusting the selection of planting dates and cultivars.(60, 61)for instance, longer and warmer growing seasons may allow earlier planting and harvesting dates, so that the extremely arid conditions of late summer are avoided. to deal with historic water shortages in southern alberta, irrigation canals were upgraded, water storage capacity was increased, and irrigation management was improved.(63)these strategies, along with water transfers and changes to crop insurance programs, are adaptation options often suggested for dealing with future climate changes. water conservation measures are another important adaptation mechanism for agriculture. for example, snow management could be used to increase water storage,(64)while equipment maintenance and upkeep could help to reduce water waste.(62)the use of summerfallow may be necessary for dryland farmers in areas of recurrent drought, but use of minimum tillage and chemical fallow techniques offer significant advantages over tillage summerfallowing with respect to soil erosion and retention of organic carbon in the soil.(65)
What does the Current greenhouse gas level suggest?
current greenhouse gas levels suggest that all ecosystems are locked into a trajectory of continued warming for several decades, regardless of any mitigating actions
When does Induction and Initiation take place?
induction and initiation take place in late summer and autumn
What will happen in Winter and early Spring?
the diapausing stage occurs in the first part of winter; and diapause termination and post-diapause quiescence follow during the latter part of winter and early spring
current greenhouse gas levels suggest that all ecosystems are locked into a trajectory of continued warming for several decades, regardless of any mitigating actions. it is crucial, therefore, to assess the impact of climate warming on the seasonal physiology of insects. typically, at temperate latitudes, the diapause programme spans three seasons: induction and initiation take place in late summer and autumn; the diapausing stage occurs in the first part of winter; and diapause termination and post-diapause quiescence follow during the latter part of winter and early spring. when addressing the effect of climate change, therefore, it is important to consider the influence of higher temperatures across these phases of diapause.
What is requested from WHO? That it continues to cooperate closely with the appropriate United Nations organizations
world health assembly resolution 61.19, on climate change and health [31, p. 2], requests the who 'to continue close cooperation with appropriate united nations organizations
How important is WHO cooperation? to develop the capacity to assess human health risks of climate change and implement effective response measures
to develop capacity to assess the risks from climate change for human health and to implement effective response measures, by promoting further research and pilot projects in this area, including work on
What other tools do you support? Surveillance and monitoring to assess vulnerability and health impacts
decision-support and other tools, such as surveillance and monitoring, for assessing vulnerability and health impacts and targeting measures appropriately
world health assembly resolution 61.19, on climate change and health [31, p. 2], requests the who 'to continue close cooperation with appropriate united nations organizations, other agencies and funding bodies, and member states, to develop capacity to assess the risks from climate change for human health and to implement effective response measures, by promoting further research and pilot projects in this area, including work on -- health vulnerability to climate change and the scale and nature thereof; -- health protection strategies and measures relating to climate change and their effectiveness, including cost-effectiveness; -- the health impacts of potential adaptation and mitigation measures in other sectors such as water resources, land use and transport, in particular where these could have positive benefits for health protection; -- decision-support and other tools, such as surveillance and monitoring, for assessing vulnerability and health impacts and targeting measures appropriately; and -- assessment of the likely financial costs and other resources necessary for health protection from climate change'.
Where can one find recommendations on management of the health effects of climate change?
recommendations on management of the health eff ects of climate change are listed at the end of this report
What kinds of countries are particularly challenged regarding health system response to climate change?
the ability of health systems to respond eff ectively to direct and indirect health eff ects of climate change is a key challenge worldwide, especially in many low-income and middle-income countries
What actions will be required for many countries to address climate change threats to health?
for many countries, more investment and resources for health systems strengthening will be required
the ability of health systems to respond eff ectively to direct and indirect health eff ects of climate change is a key challenge worldwide, especially in many low-income and middle-income countries that suff er from disorganised, ineffi cient, and under-resourced health systems. for many countries, more investment and resources for health systems strengthening will be required. climate change threats to health also highlight the vital requirement for improved stewardship, population-based planning, and the eff ective and effi cient management of scarce resources. recommendations on management of the health eff ects of climate change are listed at the end of this report.
WHAT DOES  ANTHROPOGENIC CLIMATE CHANGE INVOLVE?
anthropogenic climate change involves a complicated interplay of intrapersonal, interpersonal, and contextual factors, and this interplay varies across ghg-emitting behaviors
HOW DOES THESE INFLUENCE VARY FROM?
models that attempt to account for these influences vary from simple (with the possible advantage of parsimony) to complex (with the possible advantage of completeness
What  is  needed on the psychological barriers to mitigation?
further research is also needed on the psychological barriers to mitigation
anthropogenic climate change involves a complicated interplay of intrapersonal, interpersonal, and contextual factors, and this interplay varies across ghg-emitting behaviors. understanding these interconnected influences is necessary for developing effective intervention strategies. models that attempt to account for these influences vary from simple (with the possible advantage of parsimony) to complex (with the possible advantage of completeness). the extent to which these models explain variations in high-ghg impact behaviors and actual environmental impact needs further study. further research is also needed on the psychological barriers to mitigation. this knowledge is necessary to design intervention strategies tailored to specific behaviors and participant populations. more intervention studies are also required; importantly, these strategies are most successful when they are systematically planned, implemented, and evaluated.177,183,187
Describe the relationship between egg-laying rate and ambient temperature.
the relationship between egg-laying rate and ambient temperature could, as in the mesohabitat investigation, be described by a linear regression equation f 5*08, r2 0*11, p 0*05; fig. 5
At what temperature was egg-laying rates excluded from this analysis?
egg-laying rates at temperatures above 30 deg c were excluded from the analysis
What happened to females above the threshold of 30 deg C?
above this threshold, the females within the cages began to suffer from heat stress as they were unable to behave naturally and move away into cooler areas of vegetation (which they were able to do within the larger mesohabitat cages, as in nature
in total, 225 eggs were laid over 7 days. the rate of egglaying was not related to either the percentage bare ground or the percentage cover of f. ovina suggesting that neither of these 'resources' was limiting oviposition. the relationship between egg-laying rate and ambient temperature could, as in the mesohabitat investigation, be described by a linear regression equation f 5*08, r2 0*11, p 0*05; fig. 5). egg-laying rates at temperatures above 30 deg c were excluded from the analysis. above this threshold, the females within the cages began to suffer from heat stress as they were unable to behave naturally and move away into cooler areas of vegetation (which they were able to do within the larger mesohabitat cages, as in nature).
What is the institutions of civil society?
the institutions of civil society therefore represent a key source of stability in a famous passage, gramsci contrasts the relative ease with which the russian state was overthrown in 191 7 with the resilience of west european states: when the state trembled, a sturdy structure of civil society was at once revealed
The civil society turns the ideological realm?
the relative autonomy of civil society turns the ideological realm into a key site of political contestation among rival social groups and ideas. anticipating subsequent writing by habermas and foucault, gramsci argued, in his critique of economism, 'that "popular beliefs" and similar ideas are themselves material forces' (1 97 1, p. 165) and that conflict over language is the 'cultural struggle to transform the "popular mentality" and to disseminate philosophical innovations' (cited in fontana, 1993, p. 38). a prerequisite for social change is the development of consciousness among subordinate social groups, which requires a prolonged process of constructing educational, cultural, and political institutions in the limited autonomous space afforded within civil society
What is the historical bloc exercises?
a historical bloc exercises hegemony through the coercive and bureaucratic authority of the state, dominance in the economic realm, and the consensual legitimacy of civil society gramsci used the term historical bloc to refer to the alliances among various social groupings and also, more ly, to the alignment of material, organizational, and discursive formations which stabilize and reproduce relations of production and meaning
egan leadership and the projection of a particular set of interests as the general interest. the institutions of civil society therefore represent a key source of stability in a famous passage, gramsci contrasts the relative ease with which the russian state was overthrown in 191 7 with the resilience of west european states: when the state trembled, a sturdy structure of civil society was at once revealed. the state was only an outer ditch, behind which there stood a powerful system of fortresses and earthworks. (gramsci, 197 1, p. 238) civil society in gramsci's view, has a dual existence. as the ideological arena in which hegemony is secured, it represents part of the 'extended state', complementing the coercive potential of state agencies. however, the relative autonomy of civil society turns the ideological realm into a key site of political contestation among rival social groups and ideas. anticipating subsequent writing by habermas and foucault, gramsci argued, in his critique of economism, 'that "popular beliefs" and similar ideas are themselves material forces' (1 97 1, p. 165) and that conflict over language is the 'cultural struggle to transform the "popular mentality" and to disseminate philosophical innovations' (cited in fontana, 1993, p. 38). a prerequisite for social change is the development of consciousness among subordinate social groups, which requires a prolonged process of constructing educational, cultural, and political institutions in the limited autonomous space afforded within civil society. a hegemonic social structure, or a 'historical bloc' in gramscian terms, rests on a specific configuration of societal groups, economic structures, and concomitant ideological superstructures. a historical bloc exercises hegemony through the coercive and bureaucratic authority of the state, dominance in the economic realm, and the consensual legitimacy of civil society gramsci used the term historical bloc to refer to the alliances among various social groupings and also, more ly, to the alignment of material, organizational, and discursive formations which stabilize and reproduce relations of production and meaning. these two meanings of 'historical bloc' are closely related, for the ability to mobilize an effective alliance requires not just economic concessions but also discursive frameworks that actively constitute perceptions of mutual interests. for gramsci, hegemony entails (1 97
How many billions of USD did partially state-owned energy actors deploy?
fully or partially state-owned energy actors deployed approximately usd 66 billion of the total large-scale renewable energy investment (or 73
What was the investment mostly confined to?
this type of investment was mostly confined to developing countries (approximately 66
Where were project developers more active?
private project developers were typically more active in regions where political and regulatory arrangements allowed for, or could incentivize, such involvement: in developed countries, these actors performed 22% of their investments internationally (in 37 countries), compared to only 4% for developing country actors (in 6 countries
fully or partially state-owned energy actors deployed approximately usd 66 billion of the total large-scale renewable energy investment (or 73%). this type of investment was mostly confined to developing countries (approximately 66%), and was especially important in china where entities with some degree of stateownership carried out approximately 83% of usd 43 billion in domestic investment. private project developers were typically more active in regions where political and regulatory arrangements allowed for, or could incentivize, such involvement: in developed countries, these actors performed 22% of their investments internationally (in 37 countries), compared to only 4% for developing country actors (in 6 countries). in general, we find that project developers preferred to invest locally, with approximately 89% of renewable energy investment in 2012 executed domestically (78% in developed, and 96% in developing countries). one driver of this outcome is that established energy utilities are naturally tied to their country of origin because of the location of their existing assets, in contrast to pure project developers, who, without long-term asset ownership, can more easily invest elsewhere.44
What country were an ensemble of regional climate model used?
an ensemble of regional climate models for europe is used
What is the climate bias for winter temperature?
for winter temperature, bias changes occur in the alps and ice covered oceans caused by a biased forcing sensitivity of surface albedo
What is the climate bias for summer temperature?
for summer temperature, bias changes occur due to a biased sensitivity of cloud cover and soil moisture
bias correcting climate models implicitly assumes stationarity of the correction function. this assumption is assessed for regional climate models in a pseudo reality for seasonal mean temperature and precipitation sums. an ensemble of regional climate models for europe is used, all driven with the same transient boundary conditions. although this model-dependent approach does not assess all possible bias non-stationarities, conclusions can be drawn for the real world. generally, biases are relatively stable, and bias correction on average improves climate scenarios. for winter temperature, bias changes occur in the alps and ice covered oceans caused by a biased forcing sensitivity of surface albedo; for summer temperature, bias changes occur due to a biased sensitivity of cloud cover and soil moisture. precipitation correction is generally successful, but affected by internal variability in arid climates. as model sensitivities vary considerably in some regions, multi model ensembles are needed even after bias correction. citation: maraun, d. (2012), nonstationarities of regional climate model biases in european seasonal mean temperature and precipitation sums, geophys. res. lett. 39 l06706, doi:10.1029/2012gl051210.
Where do we present results from?
we present results from multiple comprehensive models used to simulate an aggressive mitigation scenario based on detailed results of an integrated assessment model
Who does the experiment employ?
the experiment employs ten global climate and earth system models (gcms and esms) and pioneers elements of the long-term experimental design for the forthcoming 5th intergovernmental panel on climate change assessment
What does pecified forcings also include?
specified forcings also include minor greenhouse gas concentration pathways, ozone concentration, aerosols (via concentrations or precursor emissions) and land use change (in five models
we present results from multiple comprehensive models used to simulate an aggressive mitigation scenario based on detailed results of an integrated assessment model. the experiment employs ten global climate and earth system models (gcms and esms) and pioneers elements of the long-term experimental design for the forthcoming 5th intergovernmental panel on climate change assessment. atmospheric carbon-dioxide concentrations pathways rather than carbon emissions are specified in all models, including five esms that contain interactive carbon cycles. specified forcings also include minor greenhouse gas concentration pathways, ozone concentration, aerosols (via concentrations or precursor emissions) and land use change (in five models). the new
How smallhold farmers are aware about climatic change
this paper discusses the findings of the research study that was carried out in zimbabwe among predominantly smallholder farmers on their knowledge of climate change impacts and adaptation strategies. the main aim of the research was to assess climate change and weather issues of relevance to smallholder farmers' activities, views and knowledge about climate change, its impacts and adaptation strategies. these farmers are vulnerable to the effects of climate change due to their marginal location, low levels of technology, and lack of other essential farming resources
how climate affects farmers?
the majority of farmers indicated that prolonged wet, hot, and dry weather conditions affect the efficient use of their resources and investment decisions. some specific impacts of these conditions include, among others, crop damage, death of livestock, soil erosion, bush fires, poor plant germination, pests, lower incomes, and deterioration of infrastructure. some farmers professed ignorance about climate change and how it will affect their future farming activities. other farmers pointed out high frequency and severity of drought, excessive precipitation, drying up of rivers, dams and wells, and changes in timing and pattern of seasons as evidence of climate change
how to manage climatic changes
suggested adaptation strategies include strengthening and improving indigenous land and water management practices, use of decision support tools, such as seasonal weather forecast data, growing drought resistant crops, improving indigenous animal breeds, and development of irrigation infrastructure. it is, therefore, concluded that there is need to conscientise farmers about climate change and design adaptation strategies that take into cognizance existing local level knowledge and practices on land and water management. there is also need to avail agricultural research results relevant to the small holder farmers and train them on how to use the results to make informed on-farm investment decisions
this paper discusses the findings of the research study that was carried out in zimbabwe among predominantly smallholder farmers on their knowledge of climate change impacts and adaptation strategies. the main aim of the research was to assess climate change and weather issues of relevance to smallholder farmers' activities, views and knowledge about climate change, its impacts and adaptation strategies. these farmers are vulnerable to the effects of climate change due to their marginal location, low levels of technology, and lack of other essential farming resources. the paper utilizes information from interviews of agricultural extension officers, desk-based research, literature review, and questionnaire surveys administered to smallholder farmers in murowa ward, zvishavane district. the majority of farmers indicated that prolonged wet, hot, and dry weather conditions affect the efficient use of their resources and investment decisions. some specific impacts of these conditions include, among others, crop damage, death of livestock, soil erosion, bush fires, poor plant germination, pests, lower incomes, and deterioration of infrastructure. some farmers professed ignorance about climate change and how it will affect their future farming activities. other farmers pointed out high frequency and severity of drought, excessive precipitation, drying up of rivers, dams and wells, and changes in timing and pattern of seasons as evidence of climate change. suggested adaptation strategies include strengthening and improving indigenous land and water management practices, use of decision support tools, such as seasonal weather forecast data, growing drought resistant crops, improving indigenous animal breeds, and development of irrigation infrastructure. it is, therefore, concluded that there is need to conscientise farmers about climate change and design adaptation strategies that take into cognizance existing local level knowledge and practices on land and water management. there is also need to avail agricultural research results relevant to the small holder farmers and train them on how to use the results to make informed on-farm investment decisions.
What is the importance of biological interactions?
however, quantitative comparisons of the importance of biotic interactions relative to other drivers are rarely made at larger scales. using a data set spanning 78 sites and five continents, we assessed the relative importance of biotic interactions and climate in determining plant diversity in alpine ecosystems dominated by nurse-plant cushion species
What are climate variables?
climate variables related with water balance showed the highest correlation with richness at the global scale. strikingly, although the effect of cushion species on diversity was lower than that of climate, its contribution was still substantial
Describe the future biodiversity effects of climate change?
in particular, cushion species enhanced species richness more in systems with inherently impoverished local diversity. nurse species appear to act as a 'safety net' sustaining diversity under harsh conditions, demonstrating that climate and species interactions should be integrated when predicting future biodiversity effects of climate change. keywords alpine, cushion species, foundation species, nurse plants, positive interactions, species richness
interactions among species determine local-scale diversity, but local interactions are thought to have minor effects at larger scales. however, quantitative comparisons of the importance of biotic interactions relative to other drivers are rarely made at larger scales. using a data set spanning 78 sites and five continents, we assessed the relative importance of biotic interactions and climate in determining plant diversity in alpine ecosystems dominated by nurse-plant cushion species. climate variables related with water balance showed the highest correlation with richness at the global scale. strikingly, although the effect of cushion species on diversity was lower than that of climate, its contribution was still substantial. in particular, cushion species enhanced species richness more in systems with inherently impoverished local diversity. nurse species appear to act as a 'safety net' sustaining diversity under harsh conditions, demonstrating that climate and species interactions should be integrated when predicting future biodiversity effects of climate change. keywords alpine, cushion species, foundation species, nurse plants, positive interactions, species richness.
What is surface ozone ?
a strong oxidant which has adverse impacts on health and ecosystems
Can O3 effect air quality ?
the long lifetime of o3 with respect to intercontinental transport timescales means that its in fl uence on air quality can also be considered
How much impact does O3 cause ?
the impacts and uncertainty in the o3 response to climate change need to be evaluated
changes in climate are expected to in fl uence future levels of surface ozone (o3), a strong oxidant which has adverse impacts on health and ecosystems. surface o3 is a local and regional pollutant which typically has peak episodes in spring and summer due to photochemical production. the long lifetime of o3 with respect to intercontinental transport timescales means that its in fl uence on air quality can also be considered global akimoto 2003; holloway et al ., 2003], and rising background o3 levels recorded at long-term measurement stations [e.g., parrish et al ., 2012] are of concern to policy makers. to determine the effectiveness of o3 precursor emission controls, the impacts and uncertainty in the o3 response to climate change need to be evaluated.
What was the theory of the study?
the major objective of our analyses was then to assess how species range shifts and variation in species richness could produce changes in functional assemblages
What could happen with an increased diversity of trees within the area stated?
these changes in functional richness and diversity could then have significant structural and functional effects on ecosystems
climate is one major driver of species, biomes and functional type distributions (woodward, 1987). in this study, we apply this premise to assess the potential impact of climate change on tree functional diversity. the major objective of our analyses was then to assess how species range shifts and variation in species richness could produce changes in functional assemblages. our results clearly show that is a likely outcome. based on phytogeographical classes, we showed that boreal broadleaved deciduous and coniferous species are likely to undergo large range reductions (no migration hypothesis) and remain unlikely to find new suitable habitats (unlimited migration hypothesis). potential replacements may be by temperate broadleaved deciduous and temperate coniferous species. such changes are unlikely to produce strong functional changes if they largely represent a replacement by species belonging to different phytogeographical class but within the same functional types that are already present. we, however, predicted an increase of functional diversity in these areas, resulting from an increased evenness of the tree communities. these changes in functional richness and diversity could then have significant structural and functional effects on ecosystems (cramer
What are the factors that affect the ability to control corruption in local government in Mexico and the USA?
the profits that can be generated by changes in land-use designation in and around urban centres, and in contracts for public works or services, make corruption in local government difficult to control
What are the major industries of economic activities in coastal states?
petroleum production, fisheries, agriculture, forestry and tourism
What areas are local governments in the USA not fulfilling their responsibilities?
risk reduction and allowing buildings and enterprises in high-risk zones
a detailed assessment of the possibilities and constraints on needed climate change adaptation in the coastal states around the gulf of mexico (home to more than 55 million people) hardly mentioned monetary costs as it described in detail the weakness in the local governments as they lack the financial, human and technical capacity to fulfil responsibilities for urban development plans, zoning and land-use management (including granting permits for construction). the profits that can be generated by changes in land-use designation in and around urban centres, and in contracts for public works or services, make corruption in local government difficult to control, within both mexico and the usa. the coastal states have a heavy concentration of economic activities - petroleum production, fisheries, agriculture, forestry and tourism. the gulf concentrates a high proportion of us offshore oil production and of mexico's total oil production, and the oil and gas industry supports a very large complement of land-based companies and facilities including chemical production, oil-field equipment dealers, cement suppliers, caterers, divers, platform fabrication yards and shipyards. there are many examples of local governments in the usa not fulfilling their responsibilities on risk reduction and allowing buildings and enterprises in high-risk zones. there are also examples of perverse public policies and subsidies that act to increase development in high-risk zones (levina et al., 2007).
How much the consumption of meat will have risen by 2050?
by 2050, consumption of meat and dairy is expected to have risen 76 per cent and 65 per cent respectively against a 2005-07 baseline, compared with 40 per cent for cereals
What are the biggest meat-consuming countries?
currently, the biggest meat-consuming countries are china, the european union, the united states and brazil; major dairy consumers are china, india, the eu and the united states (see figures 1 and 2
How is the projection of growth in meat consumption in China ?
growth in meat consumption in china is projected to be over four times that of the next fastest-growing consumer, brazil, in absolute terms (see figure 3
demand for animal products is rising fast. by 2050, consumption of meat and dairy is expected to have risen 76 per cent and 65 per cent respectively against a 2005-07 baseline, compared with 40 per cent for cereals.4 currently, the biggest meat-consuming countries are china, the european union, the united states and brazil; major dairy consumers are china, india, the eu and the united states (see figures 1 and 2). growth in meat consumption in china is projected to be over four times that of the next fastest-growing consumer, brazil, in absolute terms (see figure 3). figure 1: the largest meat consumers, 2011
What are the three distinct pathway in which precursors of stratospheric aerosol enter the stratosphere from the troposphere?
i) quasi-isentropic transport from the ttl into the extratropical lowermost stratosphere, (ii) cross-isentropic transport from the ttl into the tropical stratosphere by slow radiatively driven ascent, and (iii) direct injection of air into the stratosphere by exceptional overshooting convection that sometimes crosses the tropopause in the tropics
What is  tropical tropospheric circulation?
balance between localized diabatic upward transport predominantly in moist convection and large-scale radiative subsidence
Where doestransition from the tropospheric large-scale radiative subsidence to dynamically and/or radiatively forced large-scale ascent occur?
2 km, or 30 k in potential temperature, below the tropical cold point tropopause
kremser et al. stratospheric aerosol 280 2.1. atmospheric transport apart from volcanic eruptions that directly inject sulfur into the stratosphere, precursors of stratospheric aerosol enter the stratosphere from the troposphere through three distinct pathways: (i) quasi-isentropic transport from the ttl into the extratropical lowermost stratosphere, (ii) cross-isentropic transport from the ttl into the tropical stratosphere by slow radiatively driven ascent, and (iii) direct injection of air into the stratosphere by exceptional overshooting convection that sometimes crosses the tropopause in the tropics (not shown in figure 1). for (i) and (ii) the ttl is the major source region of air. the tropical tropospheric circulation is a balance between localized diabatic upward transport predominantly in moist convection and large-scale radiative subsidence. the transition from the tropospheric large-scale radiative subsidence to dynamically and/or radiatively forced large-scale ascent occurs some distance, about 2 km, or 30 k in potential temperature, below the tropical cold point tropopause folkins et al., 1999; fueglistaler et al., 2009], the temperature minimum between the
In the Northwest Atlantic Shelf how fast does the upper ocean temperature warms in the CO2 response?
temperature in the northwest atlantic shelf warms at a rate nearly twice as fast as the coarser models and nearly three times faster than the global average
the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) fifth assessment of projected global and regional ocean temperature change is based on global climate models that have coarse  100 km) ocean and atmosphere resolutions. in the northwest atlantic, the ensemble of global climate models has a warm bias in sea surface temperature due to a misrepresentation of the gulf stream position; thus, existing climate change projections are based on unrealistic regional ocean circulation. here we compare simulations and an atmospheric co2 doubling response from four global climate models of varying ocean and atmosphere resolution. we find that the highest resolution climate model  10 km ocean,  50 km atmosphere) resolves northwest atlantic circulation and water mass distribution most accurately. the co2 doubling response from this model shows that upper-ocean (0-300 m) temperature in the northwest atlantic shelf warms at a rate nearly twice as fast as the coarser models and nearly three times faster than the global average. this enhanced warming is accompanied by an increase in salinity due to a change in water mass distribution that is related to a retreat of the labrador current and a northerly shift of the gulf stream. both observations and the climate model demonstrate a robust relationship between a weakening atlantic meridional overturning circulation (amoc) and an increase in the proportion of warm-temperate slope water entering the northwest atlantic shelf. therefore, prior climate change projections for the northwest atlantic may be far too conservative. these results point to the need to improve simulations of basin and regional-scale ocean circulation.
Seismic anisotropy provides an important observational constraint on flow in the Earth's deep interior. The quantitative interpretation of anisotropy, however, requires...?
knowledge of the slip geometry of the constitutive minerals that are responsible for producing rock fabrics
What is the Earth's lower mantle is mostly composed of?
mg, fe)sio3 perovskite1
what was used to determine that under the uppermost lower-mantle conditions is MgSiO3 perovskite?
x-ray peak broadening measurements developed in metallurgy can be adapted to low-symmetry minerals to identify the elementary deformation mechanisms
seismic anisotropy provides an important observational constraint on flow in the earth's deep interior. the quantitative interpretation of anisotropy, however, requires knowledge of the slip geometry of the constitutive minerals that are responsible for producing rock fabrics. the earth's lower mantle is mostly composed of (mg, fe)sio3 perovskite1, but as mgsio3 perovskite is not stable at high temperature under ambient pressure, it has not been possible to investigate its mechanical behaviour with conventional laboratory deformation experiments. to overcome this limitation, several attempts were made to infer the mechanical properties of mgsio3 perovskite on the basis of analogue materials2-7. but perovskites do not constitute an analogue series for plastic deformation, and therefore the direct investigation of mgsio3 perovskite is necessary. here we have taken advantage of recent advances in experimental high-pressure rheology8to perform deformation experiments on coarse-grained mgsio3 polycrystals under pressure and temperature conditions of the uppermost lower mantle. we show that x-ray peak broadening measurements developed in metallurgy can be adapted to low-symmetry minerals to identify the elementary deformation mechanisms activated under these conditions. we conclude that, under uppermost lower-mantle conditions, mgsio3 perovskite
What determines the rate of gasoline consumption in the United States?
low gasoline taxation in the u.s. fosters higher consumption
Would higher taxes on gasoline help prevent gas pollution from increasing?
federal subsidies on a range of products--including oil production and large sport utility vehicles--lower their price to encourage consumption, thereby creating taxpayer-supported greenhouse gas pollution
What are organizations and individuals pushing for to keep the gas pollution down and is it working?
a range of individuals and organizations are advocating for substantial increases in the federal gas tax, or more generally for a carbon tax or a cap-and-trade system to limit carbon emissions, but their efforts thus far have failed to gain political traction due to lack of broad public support
low gasoline taxation in the u.s. fosters higher consumption. it is estimated that increasing the gasoline tax to $2/gallon would reduce short-term consumption by  15% and long-term consumption by  60%. similarly, federal subsidies on a range of products--including oil production and large sport utility vehicles--lower their price to encourage consumption, thereby creating taxpayer-supported greenhouse gas pollution. a range of individuals and organizations are advocating for substantial increases in the federal gas tax, or more generally for a carbon tax or a cap-and-trade system to limit carbon emissions, but their efforts thus far have failed to gain political traction due to lack of broad public support.55
What is the strength of the model?
the strength of the model developed here is its simplicity and ease of use
What is the model ideally suited for?
it seems ideally suited for use in sparsely populated snow-covered areas like the arctic and mountainous regions where access can be difficult
What is the reason why the model works?
the reason the model works is because bulk density is a conservative value
the strength of the model developed here is its simplicity and ease of use. it seems ideally suited for use in sparsely populated snow-covered areas like the arctic and mountainous regions where access can be difficult. it is also useful where the computational cost of physically based modeling to estimate bulk density may not be warranted, or where meteorological station density may be too low to support such modeling. given its simplicity, the performance of the model is surprisingly good. the reason the model works is because bulk density is a conservative value. fully 50% of all bulk density measurements for seasonal snow lie in a narrow range between 0.244 to 0.375 g cm2 3(fig. 2c); 80% lie between 0.194 and 0.435. reasonable estimates of swe can be derived even using a fixed bulk density value (either 0.312 g cm2 3
What can be said of most peopleâ€™s lives today?
most of the people alive today live lives that are, at best, precarious and, at worst, verging on the intolerable
What is the point drawn?
the point is that, whatever the 'right' answer, climate policy cannot properly be conducted without considering a range of ethical perspectives, including those that attach a lower value to a unit of welfare accruing to a distant generation as to one accruing today
What would be clearly inappropriate?
it would be clearly inappropriate to ask those currently living in destitution to make sacrifices for a future that is likely to be richer than the present
most of the people alive today live lives that are, at best, precarious and, at worst, verging on the intolerable. it would be clearly inappropriate to ask those currently living in destitution to make sacrifices for a future that is likely to be richer than the present. nevertheless, if, with due respect to agent-relative ethics, most of us still wanted to make some sacrifices for the sake of future generations, it is quite likely that the best way to represent individual attitudes to discounting over very long periods is in a step function in the discount factor that we apply to the welfare of future generations, along the lines set out by rothenberg (1993). that is to say, we may apply a discount factor to the next generation's welfare lower than that of our own, but hold it constant over the life of that generation--i.e. time may not enter into it. we may then value the welfare of the succeeding generation below that of the next generation, but, again, by the same discount factor irrespective of the particular year in which it is experienced. and we might then apply a very small, constant--but non-zero--discount factor to an equal unit of welfare accruing to all further generations down the line, to eternity (or whatever arbitrary cut-off point one prefers). however, since there are overlapping generations, and we have children and grandchildren of vastly different ages and hence expectations of life, aggregating such a step-function over all members of the current generation would produce a smooth exponential discount factor for society as a whole though it may flatten out before it falls to zero. in short, we would be back to a discount rate. thus the reasons for giving serious consideration to agent-relative ethics include (i) a long philosophical tradition stretching back at least to hume; (ii) probably universally held public preferences; and (iii) within limits, its instrumental value. it is, at the very least, a respectable and traditional ethical structure that contrasts with the review's impersonal consequentialism.32we do not presume here to adjudicate between various ethical systems. the point is that, whatever the 'right' answer, climate policy cannot properly be conducted without considering a range of ethical perspectives, including those that attach a lower value to a unit of welfare accruing to a distant generation as to one accruing today. since the review does not address the implications of alternative ethical assumptions, it
What do you seek to develop?
we seek to develop a feminist discursive analysis of 'singleness
What is singleness?
is a social category
in contrast to these lines of work we seek to develop a feminist discursive analysis of 'singleness'. in this section, we shall try to outline the theoretical commitments guiding our empirical research. these commitments consist of five linked claims about 'singleness' and follow variants of discursive psychology which work across both conversation analysis and post-structuralist discourse theories (see wetherell, 1998, for a description and justification of this form of critical discursive psychology). first, we suggest that the single state is best viewed as socially constructed this notion brings into sharper relief than experiential, psychoanalytic or life course models the shifting patterns of meaning through which singleness has been understood historically as well as the changing pattern of social arrangements and social practices for regulating relationships. it is a reminder that singleness is not a natural fact or a natural social arrangement. it highlights the historically and culturally variable status of singleness. at an empirical level, this draws attention to the relativity of current relational forms. it raises questions about the other ways relationships might be constructed and why these particular modes and representations of the single state dominate social organization now. second, singleness is a social category we understand categories and categorization, however, from a discursive rather than a cognitive perspective (edwards, 1997; potter and wetherell, 1987). as harvey sacks (1992) has argued, categorization-in-use is revealing about social order. categorization practices and the flexible resources these provide for constructing relationships and events at any given moment (wife versus mistress, mistress versus spinster, spinster versus bachelor, and so on) help provide an orderly and accountable framework in social life. the use of categories evokes an order for that moment. and, categories are wonderfully flexible devices. the category single can be
Accounting may be a way of making things seem "anti-political" (after Barry 2005) and seemingly uncontroversial, but technical debates about accounting rules and standards sometimes involve, what kind of struggle ?
intense power struggles
accountancy and society perspectives might usefully highlight too the history of carbon accountancy, building on previous scholarship illustrating the path dependency and inertia in how accounting decisions are made, ie once certain accounting practices are established they tend to remain (see for example miller and o'leary 1994 on the rise of standard cost accounting in the 1930s; thompson 1994 on the emergence of double-entry accounting) with carbon accountancy still in its formative stages - with many critical decisions to be made - close attention to current governance processes and decision making is likely to have significant theoretical and policy impact. further, scholars have drawn attention to the often 9 9 subtle ways that power is expressed in decisions about detailed, technical accountancy rules (miller 1994; miller and o'leary 1994; thompson 1994). accountancy can be a way of making things appear 'anti-political' (after barry 2005) and seemingly uncontroversial, but the technical debates about accountancy rules and standards sometimes involve intense power struggles. because carbon accountancy rules (once decided) will potentially have a huge influence on company profits, liabilities etc., it is no surprise that it has been a site of conflict, a point returned to in conclusion.
How will energy costs change with higher ambient temperatures?
winter time heating costs will significantly decrease, the main fuels being heating oil and natural gas, whereas more expensive electrical energy will be needed for air conditioning during the summer
What investment cost for commercial buildings is likely to increase?
particularly in commercial buildings, a significant increase in investment costs for the installation of air conditioning equipment is very likely in the next couple of decades
our regionalized analysis also suggests widely varying shifts in future energy demand depending on location and season. winter time heating costs will significantly decrease, the main fuels being heating oil and natural gas, whereas more expensive electrical energy will be needed for air conditioning during the summer. future studies will need to show whether the total energy costs for building operation in switzerland will actually decrease or increase, given the different costs of energy carriers, building stock features and the uncertainties in the spatio-temporal pattern of future climate change. it has to be stressed that despite the expected higher ambient temperatures, high level building insulation is still necessary in order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. particularly in commercial buildings, a significant increase in investment costs for the installation of air conditioning equipment is very likely in the next couple of decades. as the typical service life of a building in switzerland stands at 50-100 years, today  s building design needs to take account of future climatic boundary conditions, in particular with the aim of reducing the future cooling energy demand. however, more detailed work on the future thermal behaviour of buildings in the summer is needed. acknowledgement we gratefully acknowledge our debt to switzerland  s national weather service (meteoswiss) for all measured data (1901-2003), to m. jakob (eth-cepe) for the energy economic data and to t. frank (empa) for valuable discussions. construction of the ds climate scenarios was financed by the swiss federal research station for agroecology and agriculture (fal, project cs-maps) and the swiss agency for the environment, forests and landscape (buwal, project no. 2001.l.03/trewalp). references
What is the source of the correction in the photolysis lookup table?
scattering calculation in the photolysis lookup table has been corrected (l. horrowitz, personal communication
Increasing the stratospheric resolution of the model vertical levels resulted in a decrease of which related resolution?
positions of the model vertical levels have been adjusted to provide increased stratospheric resolution, at the expense of decreased mesospheric resolution
How have the effective photolysis rates of the CFCs been changed in the tropical stratosphere?
effective photolysis rates of the cfcs have been decreased in the lower stratosphere and increased in the tropical middle stratosphere
chapter 2: chemistry climate models and scenarios 39 used in amtrac3 has been modi fi ed, versus amtrac. essentially, the effective photolysis rates of the cfcs have been decreased in the lower stratosphere and increased in the tropical middle stratosphere. the other major change in the photochemistry is that the scattering calculation in the photolysis lookup table has been corrected (l. horrowitz, personal communication), leading to higher ozone amounts in the lower stratosphere in better agreement with observations. finally, the positions of the model vertical levels have been adjusted to provide increased stratospheric resolution, at the expense of decreased mesospheric resolution. the new model physics and dynamics have required a new tuning i.e ., a reduction) of t+++he parameterised nonorographic gravity wave forcing. changes since ccmval-1: * cubed sphere dynamics * improved cfc parameterisation * improved photolysis rates etc. as in descriptive section.
What is the fundamental importance of waste water concentration?
wastewater concentration in terms of biodegradable solids is of fundamental importance
What are the type of degradation?
according to the author, the compounds present in the wastewater can be classified as of easy, difficult, or impossible degradation
What type test to do the waster water concentration?
it can be reasonably estimated from the bod and cod tests
although practical experience in the anaerobic treatment of liquid effluents is still recent, the potential application of the process can be evaluated from the knowledge of a few chemical characteristics of the waste to be treated. a preliminary evaluation of these characteristics will help choose the most suitable treatment process, allowing an estimation of biological solids production, nutrient requirements, methane production, etc. wastewater concentration in terms of biodegradable solids is of fundamental importance, and it can be reasonably estimated from the bod and cod tests. another important factor to be considered is the relative concentration of carbohydrates, proteins and lipids, in addition to other important chemical characteristics 672 anaerobic reactors of the anaerobic biological treatment, especially ph, alkalinity, inorganic nutrients, temperature and the occasional presence of potentially toxic compounds. (a) cod balance hulshoff pol (1995) presented important and detailed considerations on the cod balance throughout the anaerobic degradation process. according to the author, the compounds present in the wastewater can be classified as of easy, difficult, or impossible degradation. easily degradable compounds are those that are readily fermented by any type of anaerobic biomass (adapted or not to the waste type). the compounds of difficult degradation, named complex substrates are not fermented by anaerobic microorganisms prior to their adaptation to the substrate. the period of adaptation to the substrate reflects the growth time of specialised microorganisms that can ferment the complex substrate. lastly, certain organic compounds, known as inert organic compounds are absolutely impossible to biologically degrade in anaerobic environments. biodegradable cod biodegradable cod (codbd) is a means of expressing the sewage treatability, which is defined as the total cod (codtot) portion present in the waste that can be biologically degraded in anaerobic conditions. the sewage biodegradability percentage is given by: %codbd codbd
Can different individuals experience school in different ways based on race?
the seemingly rhetorical question articulated by claude steele (1997) echoes one of the timeless gospels of race for students of color: different individuals can--and do-- experience the same school in dramatically different ways on the basis of race
Can negative perceptions of the university climate be associated with adverse outcomes?
for racial minority students, these negative perceptions of the university environment or negative perceptions of university climate have been associated with aversive outcomes such as poor academic performance (chang, 1999; pfeifer schneider, 1974) and lower self-esteem (r. james, 1998
What is the aim of the present study mentioned in the passage?
the aim of the present study is to propose students' perceptions of racial and academic climate as mediators of the relation between students' race and their overall perception of general campus climate (gcc
the seemingly rhetorical question articulated by claude steele (1997) echoes one of the timeless gospels of race for students of color: different individuals can--and do-- experience the same school in dramatically different ways on the basis of race. whether students are concerned about hate crimes on campus (craig, 1999; craig waldo, 1996; morse, 1995) or feelings that university affirmative action policies disadvantage whites (d'souza, 1992), race matters (for an exposition, see west, 1994). contemporary students of all races have reasons to perceive their university climates unfavorably. for racial minority students, these negative perceptions of the university environment or negative perceptions of university climate have been associated with aversive outcomes such as poor academic performance (chang, 1999; pfeifer schneider, 1974) and lower self-esteem (r. james, 1998). the question of whether race matters to students in university settings has been supplanted by the question of how race matters. the aim of the present study is to propose students' perceptions of racial and academic climate as mediators of the relation between students' race and their overall perception of general campus climate (gcc).
'Adaptation to climate change' often appears to be what type of concept?
adaptation to climate change' often appeared to be a somewhat artificial concept
Certain sensitivities or vulnerabilities tend to be framed in relation to a particular what?
certain sensitivities or vulnerabilities tended to be framed in relation to a particular business function
Through the process of interviews and workshops, interviewees tended to become more persuaded of what?
through the process of interviews and workshops, interviewees tended to become more persuaded about the seriousness of their climate sensitivity, but also more convinced about the availability of practicable adaptation measures
this also meant that, from the point of view of the interviewees, 'adaptation to climate change' often appeared to be a somewhat artificial concept, as it relies on a separation between climate and non-climate factors, which they did not make themselves. instead, certain sensitivities or vulnerabilities tended to be framed in relation to a particular business function (such as the construction of buildings) and the way in which this function might be affected by a range of future trends. as a result, climate sensitivity was not perceived or treated differently from more conventional drivers of technological, market or regulatory change. managers found it difficult to rank sensitivities to climatic change relative to their sensitivities to more conventional changes, and therefore to place these novel risks into their existing risk assessment frameworks, whether tacit and formal. through the process of interviews and workshops, interviewees tended to become more persuaded about the seriousness of their climate sensitivity, but also more convinced about the availability of practicable adaptation measures. 4.2. signalling and interpretation
How the effort will be?
this effort, we argue, is the relatively easier to implement component of adaptive management: a way of thinking that proceeds based on the imaginative synthesis of information obtained by studying the effects of existing, quasi-experimental climate policy probes
Explain adaptive management with example?
take canada, for example, where in december 2002 the parliament ratified the kyoto protocol. rather than designing innovative and experimental policies that may help to advance knowledge gleaned from similar global systems, a view from within canada's climate change plan (government of canada 2002) reveals what amounts to little more than incremental changes to existing canadian climate policies
What is the cannadian plan view from outside ?
 but, viewing the canadian plan from the outside does reveal policy treatments that differ substantially from other nations with similar geographic and physical
this effort, we argue, is the relatively easier to implement component of adaptive management: a way of thinking that proceeds based on the imaginative synthesis of information obtained by studying the effects of existing, quasi-experimental climate policy probes. take canada, for example, where in december 2002 the parliament ratified the kyoto protocol. rather than designing innovative and experimental policies that may help to advance knowledge gleaned from similar global systems, a view from within canada's climate change plan (government of canada 2002) reveals what amounts to little more than incremental changes to existing canadian climate policies. but, viewing the canadian plan from the outside does reveal policy treatments that differ substantially from other nations with similar geographic and physical
What characteristics does the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change have?
it is about climate change and not about the normal (current) climate and its variability
What perspective on impacts and risks does the Convention Perspective have?
it has a top-down perspective on impacts and risks: assessments are driven by climate change scenarios extended well into the future
Why does the Convention exist?
the rationale for the convention is that there is a global environment issue that cannot be managed nationally
the first perspective to emerge in time is well captured in the approach of the un framework convention on climate change. it might be called the convention perspective or the global climate change impacts and response perspective it has come to acquire the following characteristics: it is about climate change and not about the normal (current) climate and its variability. the rationale for the convention is that there is a global environment issue that cannot be managed nationally. this is to be separated from normal development problems, including current climate risks, and normal development assistance. because of its traditional emphasis on mitigation, it is concerned with the establishment of global environmental benefits the more spatially limited benefits that accrue to a country or a locality do not fall under the convention, although the convention does recognize the importance of adaptation. it is limited to the incremental costs of adaptation associated with climate change and not the costs and benefits of adaptation to normal climate. it has a top-down perspective on impacts and risks: assessments are driven by climate change scenarios extended well into the future; the impacts that follow from these scenarios; and lastly adaptation to those future impacts.
What you can do to achieve the goal to minimise cost function:
to achieve this goal, we select among an ensemble of simulations covering the last millennium performed with a low-resolution 3-d climate model the ones that minimise a cost function
How to measures the cost function?
this cost function measures the misfit between model results and proxy records
How we can use this Application?
it can be used to provide reconstructions of past large-scale temperature changes, complementary to the ones obtained by statistical methods
we present and describe in detail the advantages and limitations of a technique that combines in an optimal way model results and proxy-data time series in order to obtain states of the climate system consistent with model physics, reconstruction of past radiative forcing and proxy records. to achieve this goal, we select among an ensemble of simulations covering the last millennium performed with a low-resolution 3-d climate model the ones that minimise a cost function. this cost function measures the misfit between model results and proxy records. in the framework of the tests performed here, an ensemble of 30 to 40 simulations appears sufficient to reach reasonable correlations between model results and reconstructions, in configurations for which a small amount of data is available as well as in data-rich areas. preliminary applications of the technique show that it can be used to provide reconstructions of past large-scale temperature changes, complementary to the ones obtained by statistical methods. furthermore, as model results include a representation of atmospheric and oceanic circulations, it can be used to provide insights into some amplification mechanisms responsible for past temperature changes. on the other hand, if the number of proxy records is too low, it could not be used to provide reconstructions of past changes at a regional scale.
Who  supported the proposal?
the proposal was cautiously supported by representatives of the brazilian ministry of the environment at the cop9 side event, which is signifi cant because brazil had opposed the inclusion of deforestation avoidance in previous negotiating sessions
On what proposal re-opened as the debate ?
he proposal re-opened the debate about the inclusion of deforestation avoidance among the possible measures for reaching kp targets by annex i countries
What is compensated reduction proposal?
the "compensated reduction proposal" is similar to the way deforestation is addressed in the case of australia (an annex i country) under articles 3.3 and 3.7 of the protocol, based on "net-net accounting
the proposal was cautiously supported by representatives of the brazilian ministry of the environment at the cop9 side event, which is signifi cant because brazil had opposed the inclusion of deforestation avoidance in previous negotiating sessions. the proposal re-opened the debate about the inclusion of deforestation avoidance among the possible measures for reaching kp targets by annex i countries. the "compensated reduction proposal" is similar to the way deforestation is addressed in the case of australia (an annex i country) under articles 3.3 and 3.7 of the protocol, based on "net-net accounting." in this approach, the emissions from deforestation in the commitment period are compared to those in 1990, and any reduction in deforestation emissions will bring the country closer to compliance with its kyoto targets.
what is an example of processed solid fuels?
in addition to the clean gas and liquid fuels noted above, processed solid fuels (e.g., biomass pellets) used in certain types of cookstoves can burn more e ffi ciently and cleanly than collected fuels such as wood, dung (particularly when not adequately dried), and crop residues
What is the effective us of processed solid fuels ?
in addition to the clean gas and liquid fuels noted above, processed solid fuels (e.g., biomass pellets) used in certain types of cookstoves can burn more e ffi ciently and cleanly than collected fuels such as wood, dung (particularly when not adequately dried), and crop residues
How to reduce BC specifically?
simply eliminating fuel mixing, such as mixing wood with dung, has also been found to reduce bc speci fi cally by approximately 50%.5
clean fuels must also be part of the solution. in addition to the clean gas and liquid fuels noted above, processed solid fuels (e.g., biomass pellets) used in certain types of cookstoves can burn more e ffi ciently and cleanly than collected fuels such as wood, dung (particularly when not adequately dried), and crop residues. one prototype natural draft stove used with lowmoisture pellet fuel has been shown to reduce air pollutants as much as forced draft stoves.4more information is needed to ensure that these processed fuels remain bene fi cial when accounting for upstream emissions associated with their production. simply eliminating fuel mixing, such as mixing wood with dung, has also been found to reduce bc speci fi cally by approximately 50%.5
Describe the main end of the model?
our study yielded two main conclusions. first, localscale models can predict persistent species habitat at high elevations within large cells that are predicted by coarse-resolution, european-scale models to become unsuitable (the 'local high-elevation refuge hypothesis
What is the strength of the model
thus, for these species, predictions based on the european-scale data and resolutions remain plausible. these results require further testing. secondly, models fitted at both scales examined here have strengths and drawbacks. in future studies, we suggest combining their strengths in a hierarchical approach that can estimate the full realized climatic niche of species while benefiting from finer environmental predictors locally
our study yielded two main conclusions. first, localscale models can predict persistent species habitat at high elevations within large cells that are predicted by coarse-resolution, european-scale models to become unsuitable (the 'local high-elevation refuge hypothesis'). hence, european-wide projections might overestimate extinction risks for alpine species. yet, for some species, local habitat persistence often owed to very few suitable 25 m  25 m cells, suggesting a tenuous connection of habitat persistence with species persistence. thus, for these species, predictions based on the european-scale data and resolutions remain plausible. these results require further testing. secondly, models fitted at both scales examined here have strengths and drawbacks. in future studies, we suggest combining their strengths in a hierarchical approach that can estimate the full realized climatic niche of species while benefiting from finer environmental predictors locally.
How many people rely on groundwater?
groundwater is the main supply for more than 2 billion people in the world
Which continent is most reliant on ground water?
75% in europe, 32% in asia pacific, 29% in central and south america, and 32% for the world on average. 10
How much water is used to grow a tonne of wheat?
1000 tonnes of water to grow a tonne of wheat
one of the problems with borehole drilling is that it leads to a reduction in the resource. groundwater is the main supply for more than 2 billion people in the world and is diminishing almost everywhere. beneath mexico city the water table has fallen on average by 2 m and in the american mid-west water tables have fallen by 3 m in a decade, and 30 m in some places. so much has been pumped from beneath florida that in some places the aquifers are at risk from being flooded by sea water. twelve cities of more than 10 million people rely on underground water reserves, including shanghai, bangkok, london and calcutta. water is used for the rapidly growing global population, in industry and agriculture. it takes 1000 tonnes of water to grow a tonne of wheat, 2000 tonnes to grow a tonne of rice, and small farmers in many regions will be the first to suffer as aquifers dry up. the estimated percentages of populations dependent on groundwater for different regions include 75% in europe, 32% in asia pacific, 29% in central and south america, and 32% for the world on average. 10
Memory is biased which type of event
memory is biased toward events that are recent, unusual, and personally experienced, such events are most likely to drive people's likelihood judgments
How people judge climate change
people are judging the extent to which climate change is happening, personal experiences with unseasonably hot temperatures are likely to receive the most attention
how people judge inflation
people tend to judge inflation by their recent personal experiences with unusually large price changes
because memory is biased toward events that are recent, unusual, and personally experienced, such events are most likely to drive people's likelihood judgments.(16)for example, people tend to judge inflation by their recent personal experiences with unusually large price changes.(17)as a result, we suspect that, when people are judging the extent to which climate change is happening, personal experiences with unseasonably hot temperatures are likely to receive the most attention. a potential concern about such a focus on temperature increases is that people may become less concerned about climate change when the weather is not hot.(5)it has indeed been suggested that, in addition to the economic crisis, the relatively low u.s. temperatures of 2008 may have reduced the strength of americans' climate change beliefs.(5,18)moreover, individuals living in areas with colder climates may actually look forward to experiencing warmer summers as a result of climate change.(19)
Which storms have been the least studied?
there have been even fewer studies on the dynamics of the benguela nino and nina
What does the Zebiak study suggest?
the simple model study by zebiak (1993) suggests that the dominant processes that contribute to the decay of the sst in the eastern equatorial atlantic are horizontal advection, particularly the meridional component, and the damping effect of the surface heat flux, but not the thermocline fluctuation
What is less understood currently?
the dynamic processes that contribute to the decay of the zonal mode are generally less understood
the dynamic processes that contribute to the decay of the zonal mode are generally less understood. for enso, the decay of the equatorial sst anomaly in the eastern pacific has been attributed to the thermocline perturbation generated by rossby waves of opposite sign to the initial thermocline anomaly. it is not clear to what extent a similar mechanism works for the atlantic zonal mode. the simple model study by zebiak (1993) suggests that the dominant processes that contribute to the decay of the sst in the eastern equatorial atlantic are horizontal advection, particularly the meridional component, and the damping effect of the surface heat flux, but not the thermocline fluctuation. in fact, these clamping processes are so strong that the model does not support any self-sustained oscillation in the tropical atlantic. nevertheless, zebiak (1993) concludes that at least in the simple model framework the primary mechanism for the pacific enso and atlantic zonal mode is basically the same: the so-called delayed oscillator mechanism. whether or not this conclusion holds in reality needs further investigation. there have been even fewer studies on the dynamics of the benguela nino and nina. the most recent studies on this subject (florenchie et al. 2003, 2004) suggest that the remote forcing mechanism via equatorial wave dynamics is more plausible than the local feedback mechanism. in particular, the warm and cold events over the past two decades have been linked to the zonal wind stress anomaly in equatorial western atlantic, in line with the earlier studies by hirst and hastenrath (1983) and picaut (1985), and many benguela ninos coincide with strong warm phases of the zonal mode (e.g., 1963, 1984, and 1995).
Define modeling approach?
our modeling approach shows that, depending on model assumptions, every plethodontid salamander species currently found within the appalachian highlands could experience restricted climatic habitat with climate change
Which wprovide phylogeographic evidence?
kozak and wiens provide phylogeographic evidence that many extant plethodontid species that currently exist at mid and high-elevation climatic zones are descended from species that colonized those cool climates when they occurred at lower elevations
Which  smaller than km?
rather, those species with small, southerly ranges are predicted to experience the largest declines in range size including possible extinction. sixty percent of the species (or complexes) we modeled, which in total comprised approximately 85-90% of plethodontid species richness found within the appalachian highlands, have a current range smaller than 115,500 km2, and our models project the largest declines among those species with small ranges in the southern portion of the region. this scenario likely applies to the handful of range-limited endemics we could not analyze because of insufficient data on distributions
our modeling approach shows that, depending on model assumptions, every plethodontid salamander species currently found within the appalachian highlands could experience restricted climatic habitat with climate change. we note that our models do not predict the extinction of the majority of species. rather, those species with small, southerly ranges are predicted to experience the largest declines in range size including possible extinction. sixty percent of the species (or complexes) we modeled, which in total comprised approximately 85-90% of plethodontid species richness found within the appalachian highlands, have a current range smaller than 115,500 km2, and our models project the largest declines among those species with small ranges in the southern portion of the region. this scenario likely applies to the handful of range-limited endemics we could not analyze because of insufficient data on distributions. projected climatic habitat declines are much smaller for species in the central and northern appalachian highlands region, and projected species richness remains high in the central and northern regions under a range of model scenarios. these predictions are consistent with a number of studies predicting more significant range contractions or northward shifts as a consequence to global climate change the robustness of our model predictions depends in part on the relative importance of climate versus geographic and biotic limitations on species distributions. geographic and biotic limits on species distributions may conceal broader climatic tolerances than are reflected by a species' current distribution. further, if biotic interactions are important in determining species distributions, and those interactions are altered by climate (e.g.), then it may be difficult to predict how a species distribution may respond to climate change. the boundaries of some plethodontid species do clearly coincide with major land formations, such as rivers, or the occurrence of interspecific competitors [23,24]. we are not aware of any data to indicate whether those species can occupy climates not represented by their current distribution. there is also evidence that interspecific competition shapes salamander phenotypes (morphology and behavior), but there is limited evidence that competition is a significant determinant of species distributions (reviewed by ). evidence suggests that some high elevation species, which are strongly climatically restricted, may limit the upslope distribution of lower elevation species, but there is no evidence of the reverse. this would imply that competitive effects on species distributions are biased toward underestimating the cold tolerance of low elevation species, but not the warm tolerance of high elevation species. therefore, interspecific competition would not confound the use of climatic models to predict range loss from climate warming. the most compelling evidence is that, with the potential exception of some low elevation species discussed previously, most plethodontids are restricted to their current realized climatic zones. it is true that the species we modeled have persisted through several historic periods of warming, and that historic warming events were associated with periods of plethodontid diversification however, this should not be confused as evidence that historic warming events were not associated with species range contractions and extinctions. kozak and wiens provide phylogeographic evidence that many extant plethodontid species that currently exist at mid and high-elevation climatic zones are descended from species that colonized those cool climates when they occurred at lower elevations. they suggest that species have been ''strictly confined'' to specific climatic zones for millions of years, and have migrated with shifting climatic zones during historic changes in climate these
What is the source of the confusion?
the inappropriate application of knowledge about the ozone hole to the problem of global warming
What are the two effects of CFC's?
first, the cfc's that destroy ozone are also highly efficient greenhouse gases that trap heat and thus increase global warming, although their contribution is relatively small compared to the carbon dioxide produced by fossil fuel burning (ipcc, 2001
What makes it difficult to focus on the source of the confusion?
what makes this complicated, however, is that there do exist links between the two issues, although not in the way the public believes
educators need to target the source of the confusion - the inappropriate application of knowledge about the ozone hole to the problem of global warming. what makes this complicated, however, is that there do exist links between the two issues, although not in the way the public believes. first, the cfc's that destroy ozone are also highly efficient greenhouse gases that trap heat and thus increase global warming, although their contribution is relatively small compared to the carbon dioxide produced by fossil fuel burning (ipcc, 2001). thus, while thinning of the ozone layer itself does not cause climate change, the same culprit (cfc's) is 17 17
Is there a fund for victims of flooding?
there is no central uk government fund to pay for the victims of flooding
Who is responsible if the Thames Gateway floods in a storm surge?
neither the developers nor the planners nor john prescott himself are currently in line to be held directly responsible, least of all the former deputy prime minister
What is there in place for droughts?
if the londoner has to pay to have extra generating capacity of 5 mw installed, so putting up their own bills, to cope with the peak load of a single new tower block development in the city, this is not taken into account at the planning stage, nor is the impact of the new water demand on the availability of drinking water in the region during drought periods, an already chronic problem
the buck in the uk government apparently does not stop anywhere. there is no demonstrable accountability in the system. if the thames gateway floods in a storm surge, neither the developers nor the planners nor john prescott himself are currently in line to be held directly responsible, least of all the former deputy prime minister. who actually makes the choices to build huge new energy-profligate buildings or developments in regions meaning not only that emissions rise but also that every home will pay more for their energy to cover the costs? such mega-buildings may require new generating capacity to be paid for by existing households or overstretch the existing generating capacity and increase the risks of the lights going out locally in extremely cold or hot weather. if the londoner has to pay to have extra generating capacity of 5 mw installed, so putting up their own bills, to cope with the peak load of a single new tower block development in the city, this is not taken into account at the planning stage, nor is the impact of the new water demand on the availability of drinking water in the region during drought periods, an already chronic problem. such new developments are typically seen only as a sign of the economic success of a region! when homes flood in new developments of care homes and social housing in the flood plains, we know that heads should roll, but we do not know whose. there is no central uk government fund to pay for the victims of flooding, even though it is their current policies that put people in care homes, schools, hospitals and social housing on the flood plains. it will be the local authorities who pick up the tab for the poor and the uninsured who flood, so why do they tolerate moves to expose more buildings to future costs they will have to cover themselves? more free ebooks http://fast-file.blogspot.com
What is ''Penance'' strategy?
we assume that compliance in the global agreement is sustained by way of the ''penance'' strategy. this strategy specifies that a participating country plays cooperate except if another participating country has been the sole deviator from penance in the previous period, in which case defect is played
On which the penance is related to?
penance is closely related to the getting even strategy, which is used in barrett's work.7it is well known that a global agreement based on getting even admits only a very limited number of parties (e.g., 
Describe about two regional agreements?
in the case of two regional agreements, compliance is likewise sustained on the basis of a close relative to penance. this strategy -- which we refer to as '' regional penance'' - specifies that a participating country plays cooperate except if another participating country in its own region has been the sole deviator from regional penance in the previous period, in which case defect is played
we assume that compliance in the global agreement is sustained by way of the ''penance'' strategy. this strategy specifies that a participating country plays cooperate except if another participating country has been the sole deviator from penance in the previous period, in which case defect is played. non-participating countries play defect after any history. penance is closely related to the getting even strategy, which is used in barrett's work.7it is well known that a global agreement based on getting even admits only a very limited number of parties (e.g., ). in the case of two regional agreements, compliance is likewise sustained on the basis of a close relative to penance. this strategy -- which we refer to as '' regional penance'' - specifies that a participating country plays cooperate except if another participating country in its own region has been the sole deviator from regional penance in the previous period, in which case defect is played. as in the case of a global treaty, non-participating countries play defect after any history. it may be noted that if all countries use this strategy, then a deviation by a participating country in region a will be punished by other parties in region a but not by parties to the agreement in region b and vice versa. we show below that this is part of the equilibrium behavior. loosely formulated, an equilibrium is renegotiation-proof if the players as a group cannot find a better alternative 8 p. 43]. more precisely, in order to be a weakly renegotiation-proof equilibrium (in the sense of farrell and maskin 19 pp. 330-331]), a strategy profile must satisfy two requirements.8
What are the calculations of aerobic volume based on?
calculations of aerobic scope rely on two extreme measures of mo2, namely mo2,min and mo2,max
Are the methods consistent across all studies?
although it would be optimal for comparative purposes if the techniques used for these two measures were consistent across studies, unfortunately that is not the case
What are the differences in research methods?
while some of the variation between studies is an unavoidable consequence of working with different species and thus requiring different techniques, a significant part of the variation apparently stems from a lack of experience and quality control
calculations of aerobic scope rely on two extreme measures of mo2, namely mo2,min and mo2,max. although it would be optimal for comparative purposes if the techniques used for these two measures were consistent across studies, unfortunately that is not the case. while some of the variation between studies is an unavoidable consequence of working with different species and thus requiring different techniques, a significant part of the variation apparently stems from a lack of experience and quality control. below, we outline some of the various techniques and conditions used in studies to estimate mo2,min and mo2,max, with an aim to encourage transparency, enhance accuracy and maximise consistency of future studies.
How niche spices respond to environmental factors?
each species responding independently to the environmental factors that determine its niche space, and thus its habitat occupancy and distribution
Are spices interactions included in niche studies? Why?
pecies interactions are generally not included in niche models (ref. 34, but see refs. 35 and 36), even though the effects of biotic interactions may sometimes supersede those of climate (37). it is not hard to see why. many species may co-occur in an area, creating the setting for a bewildering array of interactions with cascading direct and indirect effects. documenting these interactions, even for a subset of species, is an overwhelming challenge, especially as the nature of the interactions and their effects on any one species may change from place to place (or time to time) as other species enter or leave an assemblage or their abundances change
Are niche species interactions nature and effects established or variable? Why?
the nature of the interactions and their effects on any one species may change from place to place (or time to time) as other species enter or leave an assemblage or their abundances change
most niche models implicitly assume that biotic communities are gleasonian (33), each species responding independently to the environmental factors that determine its niche space, and thus its habitat occupancy and distribution. thus, species interactions are generally not included in niche models (ref. 34, but see refs. 35 and 36), even though the effects of biotic interactions may sometimes supersede those of climate (37). it is not hard to see why. many species may co-occur in an area, creating the setting for a bewildering array of interactions with cascading direct and indirect effects. documenting these interactions, even for a subset of species, is an overwhelming challenge, especially as the nature of the interactions and their effects on any one species may change from place to place (or time to time) as other species enter or leave an assemblage or their abundances change.
What is the crucial ingredient in climate change policy?
however, as the report emphasises again and again, a crucial ingredient in climate change policy is risk and uncertainty
What is the present value of benefits accruing in one hundred years time?
the present value of benefits accruing in one hundred years' time is only one fiftieth of the value of those benefits today
What is known as the discount factor?
this ratio, which is one fiftieth in this instance, is what is known as the 'discount factor
it is now well-known that the dominant ingredient in any cost-benefit calculation of climate change policy is the discount rate used in order to compare the costs of mitigating climate change with the expected benefits (i.e. the avoidance of the damage that climate change might otherwise do under what is known as a 'business as usual scenario').5for example, with a constant discount rate of only 4 per cent, the present value of benefits accruing in one hundred years' time is only one fiftieth of the value of those benefits today (all comparisons being in real terms--i.e. adjusted for inflation).6this ratio, which is one fiftieth in this instance, is what is known as the 'discount factor'.7thus, one's natural reaction might be to say that economics tells us that we should not worry about climate change. for with such a discount factor, the benefits accruing in 100 years' time from the review's proposed policies would have to be fifty times as great as the costs of mitigating climate change (assuming that most of the costs are incurred in the near future). it might seem very unlikely that the benefits will be fifty times the costs. from this perspective it could be concluded that unless the first two chapters or so of the review justify the use of a relatively low discount rate, it is not worth reading the next 500-odd pages. however, as the report emphasises again and again, a crucial ingredient in climate change policy is risk and uncertainty. and one cannot rule out the possibility--however small--that the consequences of a 'business as
What is the correlation between elevation, soil moisture and soil organic content?
elevation is inversely correlated with soil moisture, which is, in turn, usually correlated with soil organic content
What are the unmeasured factors that may also be correlated with elevation, the analyses of elevation, soil moisture, and percent ash?
other unmeasured factors may also be correlated with these factors, including nutrients such as nitrogen, disturbance, and even herbivory
What do the temporal patterns across habitats from 1999 to 2007 show?
the temporal patterns across habitats from 1999 to 2007show that the dunecommunities are quite dynamic through time
water, nutrients, and disturbance have all been proposed to limit dune vegetation in similar habitats worldwide (e.g., dech and maun 2005 houle 2008 forey et al 2008 lane et al 2008 ). while our vegetation patterns are best correlated with elevation, the analyses of elevation, soil moisture, and percent ash do not reveal which is limiting because these factors necessarily covary--elevation is inversely correlated with soil moisture, which is, in turn, usually correlated with soil organic content. other unmeasured factors may also be correlated with these factors, including nutrients such as nitrogen, disturbance, and even herbivory. our work will help to design more direct experiments that may determine which factors actually drive the documented vegetation patterns. the temporal patterns across habitats from 1999 to 2007show that the dunecommunities are quite dynamic through time. the changes in vegetation from year to year suggest that the temporal variation within grids can be substantial, but relatively similar patterns are seen among habitats. two questions particularly interested us: what are the effects of storms and other climate factors, and is there any evidence to support short-term stability or long-term successional patterns? correlations among changes in pcoa scores and known climate factors strongly suggest that each
what is discussed in section 4a?
present and discuss the projections of the levels of all the important greenhouse gases and aerosols that contribute to radiative forcing of climate change
what is discussed in section 4b?
together with the contributions of economic and scientific uncertainties to the uncertainty in projected climate
what is discussed in section 4c?
changes in the biogeochemical cycles of carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and methane that are influenced by the joint effects of chemistry, biology, and climate change are discussed in section 4c
in section 4a we present and discuss the projections of the levels of all the important greenhouse gases and aerosols that contribute to radiative forcing of climate change. the forcing and related changes in climate are discussed in section 4b together with the contributions of economic and scientific uncertainties to the uncertainty in projected climate. changes in the biogeochemical cycles of carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and methane that are influenced by the joint effects of chemistry, biology, and climate change are discussed in section 4c. in section 4d our projections are compared with the results of the ipcc ar4. sensitivity of our projections to the uncertainty in the estimates of the twentieth-century changes in deep-ocean heat content are discussed in section 4e.
What are the five focal terms in education at which this paper looks?
this paper looks at five focal terms in education-- curriculum, environment, climate, quality and change--and the interrelationships and dynamics between and among them
To whom is the organizational climate very significant?
in addition to the educational climate of the environment that students inhabit, it is important to consider the organizational climate of the work environment that staff inhabit. this organizational climate is very significant, not only for staff, but for their students, too
What is Climate shown to be?
climate is shown to be an operationalization or manifestation of each of these other four focal concepts
this paper looks at five focal terms in education-- curriculum, environment, climate, quality and change--and the interrelationships and dynamics between and among them. it emphasizes the power and utility of the concept of climate as an operationalization or manifestation of the curriculum and the other three concepts. ideas pertaining to the theory of climate and its measurement can provide a greater understanding of the medical curriculum. the learning environment is an important determinant of behaviour. environment is perceived by students and it is perceptions of environment that are related to behaviour. the environment, as perceived, may be designated as climate. it is argued that the climate is the soul and spirit of the medical school environment and curriculum. students' experiences of the climate of their medical education environment are related to their achievements, satisfaction and success. measures of educational climate are reviewed and climate measures for medical education are discussed. these should take account of current trends in medical education and curricula. measures of the climate may subdivide it into different components giving, for example, a separate assessment of so-called faculty press, student press, administration press and physical or material environmental press. climate measures can be used in different modes with the same stakeholders. for example, students may be asked to report, first, their perceptions of the actual environment they have experienced and, second, to report on their ideal or preferred environment. the same climate index can be used with different stakeholders giving, for example, staff and student comparisons. in addition to the educational climate of the environment that students inhabit, it is important to consider the organizational climate of the work environment that staff inhabit. this organizational climate is very significant, not only for staff, but for their students, too. the medical school is a learning organization evolving and changing in the illuminative evaluation it makes of its environment and its curriculum through the action research studies of its climate. considerations of climate in the medical school, along the lines of continuous quality improvement and innovation, are likely to further the medical school as a learning organization with the attendant benefits. unless medical schools become such learning organizations, their quality of health and their longevity may be threatened. aims and focus this paper aims to assist and facilitate discourse on medical education between and among medical education administrators, medical teachers, medical students, medical education curriculum developers, assessors, researchers and, indeed, any other stakeholders in the medical education enterprise, including governments or other agencies that may supply the finances. this assistance and facilitation of discourse will, it is hoped, result in the achievement of some simplification and increased clarity in communication among all stakeholders, which, it is believed, can only serve to enhance the quality and effectiveness of the work of all participants in the medical education enterprise. the simplification and clarification of educational discourse will involve a pentagonal or five-way perspective on medical education, with an associated consideration of meanings and connotations of five focal terms, namely curriculum, environment, climate, quality and change, and the interrelationships and dynamics between and among these focal elements. the paper will emphasize the power and utility of the concept of climate, as the pivot around which the discussion of the other four concepts, of curriculum, environment, quality and change, will turn. climate considerations, in the paper, become inextricably bound up with considerations of the other four focal concepts. climate is shown to be an operationalization or manifestation of each of these other four focal concepts. what is more, the now available high quality of climate measurement means that, in some real sense, such climate measures can serve as measures, too, of curriculum, environment, quality and change, to the extent that each of these four can be operationalized as climate. quite a number of qualitatively and quantitatively based workplace action-research studies of climate itself, and its connections with curriculum, environment, quality and change, then become available, in medical education. a major purpose of the paper thus is to stimulate generation of research problems and hypotheses that not only are of theoretical interest, but may lead to valuable practical programmes in curriculum development in medical education, or to what, in topical parlance, is termed best evidence medical education (beme) (hart, 1999;
How much does climate variability is estimated to reduce long-term rice production?
an average 7.4 per cent each year over the 2005-50 simulation period
How much does existing climate variability is estimated to cost Bangladesh
us$121 billion in lost national gdp
Where does average annual rice production growth is lowered?
in all subregions
this is explored using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (cge) model. compared to an 'optimal' climate simulation in which highest simulated yields are used and sector productivity and factor supplies increase smoothly at average long-term growth rates with no inter-annual variations, climate variability is estimated to reduce long-term rice production by an average 7.4 per cent each year over the 2005-50 simulation period. this primarily lowers the production of the aman and aus crop. average annual rice production growth is lowered in all subregions. this simulated variability is projected to cost the agriculture sector (in discounted terms) us$26 billion in lost agricultural gdp during the 2005-50 period. this climate variability has economy-wide implications beyond simply the size-effect of the lost agricultural gdp. existing climate variability is estimated to cost bangladesh us$121 billion in lost national gdp during this period (us$3 billion per year). this is 5 per cent below what could be achieved if the climate were 'optimal'.
How the random effects correlation coefficients is different for EU and USA?
the random effects correlation coefficients are different from zero at the 5% significance level for the eu and the usa, and at the 10% significance level for g77/china
How the random effects correlation coefficients is different for china?
the random effects correlation coefficients are different from zero at the 5% significance level for the eu and the usa, and at the 10% significance level for g77/china
what is GHK simulator?
we applied the simulated maximum likelihood estimation incorporating the so-called ghk simulator (geweke et al
for each country, we use the last available data point since 1995. most data stem from 2000. 20 the random effects correlation coefficients are different from zero at the 5% significance level for the eu and the usa, and at the 10% significance level for g77/china. however, traditional binary probit models without taking into account unobserved heterogeneity generate qualitatively nearly identical estimation results. the main results are furthermore robust in different model specifications regarding the inclusion of control variables. 21 in order to test the robustness of the estimation results, we additionally analyzed multivariate (binary) probit models (greene 2003) which connect the four single equations for each country or group of countries according to (2) and (3). the estimation of these models required the inclusion of simulators in the maximum likelihood method. we applied the simulated maximum likelihood estimation incorporating the so-called ghk simulator (geweke et al.
What is yellow fever?
yellow fever is a viral disease native to tropical africa 143 ). in its original woodland habitat it circulates among wild monkeys. it is transmitted by at least 14 species of mosquito--all of the genus aedes --that breed in tree holes and other natural cavities. humans can be infected if bitten by infected mosquitoes
What is jaundice?
symptoms include high fever, jaundice, and spontaneous bleeding. the severity of illness is quite variable, but 20-50% of jaundice cases are fatal
What are tropics?
aegypti, a species that readily breeds in water jars and other man-made containers. it is widespread in villages and urban areas throughout the tropics and can also thrive in temperate climates. in the united states its permanent range extends to north carolina 144 ), although breeding populations have been recorded as far north as new york, new york, and boston, massachusetts 145 
yellow fever is a viral disease native to tropical africa 143 ). in its original woodland habitat it circulates among wild monkeys. it is transmitted by at least 14 species of mosquito--all of the genus aedes --that breed in tree holes and other natural cavities. humans can be infected if bitten by infected mosquitoes. symptoms include high fever, jaundice, and spontaneous bleeding. the severity of illness is quite variable, but 20-50% of jaundice cases are fatal. the virus can also be transmitted between humans by mosquitoes that are more closely associated with human habitation. one of these is the peridomestic form of ae. aegypti, a species that readily breeds in water jars and other man-made containers. it is widespread in villages and urban areas throughout the tropics and can also thrive in temperate climates. in the united states its permanent range extends to north carolina 144 ), although breeding populations have been recorded as far north as new york, new york, and boston, massachusetts 145 ).
Where are the data of previous studies of the concentrations of bacteria in air derived from?
previous studies of the concentrations of bacteria in air have derived data from sampled bacteria that were culturable on microbiological media under laboratory conditions
Who found a seasonal difference between the numbers of culturable bacteria isolated from air samples?
jones and cookson (1983), di giorgio et al. (1995) and tong and lighthart (2000) found a seasonal difference between the numbers of culturable bacteria isolated from air samples
What did Lighthart (1999) hypothesis about bacterial concentrations?
lighthart (1999) hypothesised that bacterial concentrations in the atmosphere are a temporal function of diurnal and annual solar cycles, although the data presented show a lag of concentration behind solar radiation, indicating a possible temperature dependence
the majority of previous studies of the concentrations of bacteria in air have derived data from sampled bacteria that were culturable on microbiological media under laboratory conditions. jones and cookson (1983), di giorgio et al. (1995) and tong and lighthart (2000) found a seasonal difference between the numbers of culturable bacteria isolated from air samples, with maximum concentrations in the summer months. when the numbers of airborne bacteria were measured over a 2-min time base, a diurnal effect on bacterial numbers, with minimum concentrations at night, and maximum concentrations in the early afternoon has been observed (lighthart and schaffer 1995). there are also perturbations of increased culturable bacterial concentrations around dawn, which reduced at mid-afternoon, the latter reductions being associated with a sea breeze advecting cleaner air over the sampling site. lighthart (1999) hypothesised that bacterial concentrations in the atmosphere are a temporal function of diurnal and annual solar cycles, although the data presented show a lag of concentration behind solar radiation, indicating a possible temperature dependence.
Results of SMA test are 100% reliable? Why?
although the sma test constitutes a very useful tool, the results should still be used with caution, as there is no accepted international standard as yet
Do methodology and experimental conditions affect SMA results?
the different methodologies and experimental conditions can lead to different sma results, which are difficult to be compared amongst themselves
What is reflected more in the results obtained with the test?
it is understood that the results obtained with the test reflect much more the relative specific methanogenic activities, and not the absolute ones
although the sma test constitutes a very useful tool, the results should still be used with caution, as there is no accepted international standard as yet. the efforts of the iwa task group on anaerobic biodegradability and activity tests in establishing such standard should be acknowledged. so far, the different methodologies and experimental conditions can lead to different sma results, which are difficult to be compared amongst themselves. in this respect, it is understood that the results obtained with the test reflect much more the relative specific methanogenic activities, and not the absolute ones. however, even if the results are relative for certain test conditions, they are very important for the follow-up and evaluation of anaerobic reactors.
What is one of the most important ecosystem processes in the biosphere and is sensitive to climate change?
decomposition of plant litter
Why are Aquatic ecosystems well suited for studying warming effects on decomposition?
because the otherwise confounding influence of moisture is constant
What type of temperature gradient is used in this experiment?
a latitudinal temperature gradient
the decomposition of plant litter is one of the most important ecosystem processes in the biosphere and is particularly sensitive to climate warming. aquatic ecosystems are well suited to studying warming effects on decomposition because the otherwise confounding influence of moisture is constant. by using a latitudinal temperature gradient in an unprecedented global experiment in streams, we found that climate warming will likely hasten microbial litter decomposition and produce an equivalent decline in detritivore-mediated decomposition rates. as a result, overall decomposition rates should remain unchanged. nevertheless, the process would be profoundly altered, because the shift in importance from detritivores to microbes in warm climates would likely increase co2 production and decrease the generation and sequestration of recalcitrant organic particles. in view of recent estimates showing that inland waters are a significant component of the global carbon cycle, this implies consequences for global biogeochemistry and a possible positive climate feedback. keywords carbon cycle, climate change, detritivores, global analysis, latitudinal gradient, litter decomposition, microbial decomposers, streams, temperature.
WHAT DOES THE BOOK DESCRIBES?
this book describes some of those circumstances in relation to buildings, settlements and lifestyles of this, and future decades
WHY THIS BOOK HAS BEEN WRITTEN TO  MAKE ?
disposed to change your mind
WHAT WILL YOU FIND THE CONTENT WITH THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE?
we will find it to contend with the impacts of climate change, to meet head on the challenges of changing ' social thought and action ' and to redirect the supertanker of conventional wisdom
we are faced now with the massive onslaught of the circumstances of climate change. this book describes some of those circumstances in relation to buildings, settlements and lifestyles of this, and future decades. as you read on it will become clearer how very difficult, if not impossible, we will find it to contend with the impacts of climate change, to meet head on the challenges of changing ' social thought and action ' and to redirect the supertanker of conventional wisdom. that is why you, the reader, are important, and why this book has been written to make you ' disposed to change your mind ' and in turn change the minds of those in your circle of influence, and those in theirs, and so on until the ripple grows to be a tidal wave of change in the attitudes of our society. and though none of us wants it, and we may wish that we lived in different times, it is the responsibility of each and every one of our generation, and ours alone in the whole history of humankind, to take up arms in this battle for our very survival. but why has it taken us so long to act? the climate war is already upon us. how did it come to this? more free ebooks http://fast-file.blogspot.com
What useful for finding a few of the strongest signals?
eigenvalue techniques
Why have Earth scientists used observation and, more recently, eigenvalue analysis techniques, such as principal components analysis (PCA) and singular value decomposition (SVD)?
to analyze the effect of the oceans and atmosphere on land climate
What generally outperform SVD derived indices, both in terms of area weighted correlation and direct correlation with the known indices?
cluster based indices
to analyze the effect of the oceans and atmosphere on land climate, earth scientists have developed climate indices, which are time series that summarize the behavior of selected regions of the earth's oceans and atmosphere. in the past, earth scientists have used observation and, more recently, eigenvalue analysis techniques, such as principal components analysis (pca) and singular value decomposition (svd), to discover climate indices. however, eigenvalue techniques are only useful for finding a few of the strongest signals. furthermore, they impose a condition that all discovered signals must be orthogonal to each other, making it difficult to attach a physical interpretation to them. this paper presents an alternative clustering-based methodology for the discovery of climate indices that overcomes these limitations and is based on clusters that represent regions with relatively homogeneous behavior. the centroids of these clusters are time series that summarize the behavior of the ocean or atmosphere in those regions. some of these centroids correspond to known climate indices and provide a validation of our methodology; other centroids are variants of known indices that may provide better predictive power for some land areas; and still other indices may represent potentially new earth science phenomena. finally, we show that cluster based indices generally outperform svd derived indices, both in terms of area weighted correlation and direct correlation with the known indices.
What conditions conspire to hinder natural lighting in high-density buildings?
one is how wide they are, from one external wall to another
From what width does a building become difficult to light?
once the width of a building increases beyond about 12 m it is difficult to daylight it
How to increase the amount of light inside the building?
he more sky can be seen from a window, the greater the amount of daylight that can enter a room
two conditions conspire to make daylighting difficult in high-density buildings. one is how wide they are, from one external wall to another. once the width of a building increases beyond about 12 m it is difficult to daylight it. not withstanding the depth of a building, the amount of daylight reaching an interior is dependent on how much clear sky is visible from any particular window. the more sky can be seen from a window, the greater the amount of daylight that can enter a room. in a dense urban setting, it becomes clear that windows close to the ground will not provide significant daylight to interiors in high-rise districts.
Who in developed countries use much less-emissions intensive modes of transport?
women in developed countries use much less-emissions intensive modes of transport than men
What suggests that female drivers generally are more fuel efficient than males?
evidence from sweden suggests that female drivers generally are more fuel efficient than males
What shows that Finnish women pay less attention to gas mileage then men when buying cars, placing more emphasis on performance?
an interesting study from finland shows that finnish women pay less attention to gas mileage then men when buying cars, placing more emphasis on performance
evidence so far suggests that typically, women in developed countries use much less-emissions intensive modes of transport than men. their level of car-ownership is lower and their share in public transport use is higher36. if they own a car, it is likely to be smaller and more fuel efficient than the average car owned by men, at least in the european context. they see cars less as a high-powered status symbol than as a means of transport. evidence from sweden suggests that female drivers generally are more fuel efficient than males due to less aggressive driving styles with a lower average speed.37 but to counteract this hypothesis, an interesting study from finland shows that finnish women pay less attention to gas mileage then men when buying cars, placing more emphasis on performance. on the other hand, in the same study, women in contrast to men said more often that they wanted an 'environmentally friendly' car but the claim did not have much substance because it did not translate into any concrete demands. similar results to those from finland where mentioned in the eurobarometer (a regularly undertaken poll by the european commission, january 2006) about attitudes toward energy saving. "when analysing habits concerning cars, we can observe a significant difference between the attention paid by men compared to women (64% state they pay "a lot of attention" compared to 55% among women)" to energy consumption. (page 20). regarding measures to decline energy consumption, "women appear to be more supportive to an increase in the information supply whereas men are inclined to more often name tax incentives and actions on energy standards as public authorities' priorities." maybe there is a connection between both results?38
Why could be insufficient the private supply of adaption response by households, firms or local communities ?
imperfect information the existing information about the costs and benefits of adaptation-- particularly proactive adaptation--is often not available to households and firms in developing countries
What do R&D programs do ?
to create/improve knowledge about adaptation in the first place, and for information disclosure and education programs to disseminate information as widely as possible. these programs also serve indirectly to coordinate expectations
What is needed public action 11 do the households, firms or local communities involved may not be able to agree on cooperative action to provide the public good ?
facilitate and/or force the adoption of the cooperative equilibrium through such interventions as, inter alia setting standards or other forms of regulations, creating organizing fora, or mediating negotiations
rationale for some public intervention with regard to adaptation within countries public intervention may be justified for efficiency and equity reasons, since there are many instances in which the private supply of adaptation response by households, firms or local communities could be insufficient, e.g. due to: imperfect information the existing information about the costs and benefits of adaptation-- particularly proactive adaptation--is often not available to households and firms in developing countries. hence the need for publicly provided r&d programs to create/improve knowledge about adaptation in the first place, and for information disclosure and education programs to disseminate information as widely as possible. these programs also serve indirectly to coordinate expectations (see point on externalities below). barriers to collective action (local public goods) in some cases, proactive adaptation requires the provision of local public goods such as irrigation networks or seawalls. yet the households, firms or local communities involved may not be able to agree on cooperative action to provide the public good even if it is within their collective interest and financial ability to do so. public action11 is then needed to facilitate and/or force the adoption of the cooperative equilibrium through such interventions as, inter alia setting standards or other forms of regulations, creating organizing fora, or mediating negotiations. moral hazard/free rider problems private decisions regarding adaptation measures might be biased if households, firms or local communities, expecting the government or international relief agencies to provide for part or all of reactive adaptation costs, respond by adopting behaviors that are more risk-prone than they would otherwise have. externalities some adaptation decisions involve negative externalities that create a wedge between individual and collective optima. for example, power outages have demonstrated
What is the role of that women and their communities in developing countries?
the role of that women and their communities in developing countries can play in mitigation has to be acknowledged and considered in the available instruments the only instrument involving developing countries in mitigation so far is the clean development mechanism (cdm
What is generally agreed that the highest potential of the CDM?
it is generally agreed that the highest potential of the cdm to combine poverty alleviation to ghg abatement, in brief "the win-win projects" are small-scale, off-grid projects in micro-hydro and biomass energy generation and smallscale afforestation and reforestation projects, which cover tree plantings in agroforestry and urban landscapes of low-income communities and individuals, as defined by the host countries. however, the international process to register an emission reduction project as a cdm project is cumbersome and costly
What is the CDM Executive Board's simplified rules?
the cdm executive board's simplified rules for small-scale projects remain to show their effectiveness. it is encouraging that among the 50 odd projects lining up for official registration, about half are small and some are real rural micro projects such as hydro plants in bhutan and honduras generating 500 to 1000 cers annually. it is also encouraging that in the form of small-scale sequestration projects, parties have conceived
the role of that women and their communities in developing countries can play in mitigation has to be acknowledged and considered in the available instruments the only instrument involving developing countries in mitigation so far is the clean development mechanism (cdm). this mechanism has the twin aim of achieving sustainable development in the host countries of the emission reduction projects and achieving cost-efficient reductions for the developing countries. naturally, these aims do not necessarily coincide. "the capacity of developing countries to evaluate projects, the inclusion of the poor in the design of cdm projects and streamlined approval procedures for small projects could all contribute to increasing the cdm's effect on poverty" .72 it is generally agreed that the highest potential of the cdm to combine poverty alleviation to ghg abatement, in brief "the win-win projects" are small-scale, off-grid projects in micro-hydro and biomass energy generation and smallscale afforestation and reforestation projects, which cover tree plantings in agroforestry and urban landscapes of low-income communities and individuals, as defined by the host countries. however, the international process to register an emission reduction project as a cdm project is cumbersome and costly. the transaction costs make regular scale projects unviable that generate less than 20,000 t of cers per year. these small projects, which benefit from simplified modalities and conditions and lower fees however would be those with a maximum benefit for marginalized groups because they would be more likely to be implemented in rural areas. the cdm executive board's simplified rules for small-scale projects remain to show their effectiveness. it is encouraging that among the 50 odd projects lining up for official registration, about half are small and some are real rural micro projects such as hydro plants in bhutan and honduras generating 500 to 1000 cers annually. it is also encouraging that in the form of small-scale sequestration projects, parties have conceived
What does the study examinates?
durack and wijffels (2010) and durack et al. (2012) examined trends in global sea surface salinity (sss) changes over the period 1950- 2008
What does the study reveals about SSS?
their analysis revealed strong, spatially coherent trends in sss over much of the global ocean, with a pattern that bears striking resemblance to the climatological sss field and is associated with an intensification of the global water cycle (see sections 3.3.2.1, 10.4.2 and 12.4.5
What does the CMIP5 climate model projections indicate?
the cmip5 climate model projections available suggest that high sss subtropical regions that are dominated by net evaporation are typically getting more saline; lower sss regions at high latitudes are typically getting fresher
durack and wijffels (2010) and durack et al. (2012) examined trends in global sea surface salinity (sss) changes over the period 1950- 2008. their analysis revealed strong, spatially coherent trends in sss over much of the global ocean, with a pattern that bears striking resemblance to the climatological sss field and is associated with an intensification of the global water cycle (see sections 3.3.2.1, 10.4.2 and 12.4.5). the cmip5 climate model projections available suggest that high sss subtropical regions that are dominated by net evaporation are typically getting more saline; lower sss regions at high latitudes are typically getting fresher. they also suggest a continuation of this trend in the atlantic where subtropical surface waters become more saline as the century progresses (figure 12.34) (see also terray et al., 2012). at the same time, the north pacific is projected to become less saline.
What is expected to happen to amphibians and reptiles in Southeast Asian due to climate change?
southeast asia will bear the brunt of sweeping climatic changes with potential results ranging from shrinking individuals, declining population sizes, and altered community structures to widespread trophic cascades, extinctions, and loss of ecosystem services
Why is it useful to study amphibians and reptiles in the context of climate changes?
although amphibians and reptiles are only parts of the larger picture, we can learn much from their current endangered status and quick response to environmental degradation
What must we focus attention on?
we must focus attention on the biogeographic areas and biodiversity hotspots where groups of organisms are at highest risk. southeast asia and its amphibians and reptiles deserve focus at multiple levels, from basic and applied research and experimentation on the probable effects of climate change, to the actuation of public policy and governmental programs aimed at reducing consumption, human population growth, energy, waste, and pollution
conclusions even if the most optimistic projections of the ipcc come to fruition, the next 50 years will see severe alterations of ecosystem function that humankind depends on for our basic needs. although amphibians and reptiles are only parts of the larger picture, we can learn much from their current endangered status and quick response to environmental degradation. southeast asia will bear the brunt of sweeping climatic changes with potential results ranging from shrinking individuals, declining population sizes, and altered community structures to widespread trophic cascades, extinctions, and loss of ecosystem services. amphibians and reptiles may be some of the first taxa to be affected by climate changes in abrupt and severe ways. we should not wait until populations have crashed or species gone extinct before acting to prevent further effects from accruing. we must focus attention on the biogeographic areas and biodiversity hotspots where groups of organisms are at highest risk. southeast asia and its amphibians and reptiles deserve focus at multiple levels, from basic and applied research and experimentation on the probable effects of climate change, to the actuation of public policy and governmental programs aimed at reducing consumption, human population growth, energy, waste, and pollution. only by changing human attitudes and behavior toward the environment as well as increasing our understanding of biodiversity will we realistically meet the needs of the future.
How can we find and transform the rapidly biodegradable fraction?
the rapidly-biodegradable organic nitrogenous matter is in a soluble form and is converted by heterotrophic bacteria into ammonia, through the process of ammonification
What kind of organisms can use ammonia?
ammonia is used by heterotrophic and autotrophic bacteria
biodegradable the biodegradable fraction can be subdivided into the following three components: - rapidly biodegradable the rapidly-biodegradable organic nitrogenous matter is in a soluble form and is converted by heterotrophic bacteria into ammonia, through the process of ammonification - slowly biodegradable the slowly-biodegradable organic nitrogenous matter is in a particulate form, being converted into a soluble 370 basic principles of wastewater treatment form (rapidly biodegradable) through hydrolysis this hydrolysis occurs in parallel with the hydrolysis of the carbonaceous matter. - ammonia ammonia (inorganic nitrogen) results from the hydrolysis and ammonification processes described above. ammonia is used by heterotrophic and autotrophic bacteria.
what does the purpose of statistical analysis used for?
the statistical analysis used a series multiple-mediation models to test for direct and indirect relationships between the independent, dependen
the mediating and dependent variables represent which constructs ?
the mediating and dependent variables represent socio-cognitive constructs
which method is used for reconstruct the distribution for the inderict effects?
a bootstrapping method was used to reconstruct the distribution for the indirect effects
the statistical analysis used a series multiple-mediation models to test for direct and indirect relationships between the independent, dependent, and mediating variables detailed in table 1. the mediating and dependent variables represent socio-cognitive constructs developed using factor analysis to group highly correlated questions into a single scale with a cronbach's a reliability coefficient 0.70 (table 1). details regarding scale development and factor analysis can be found in (table s3). the multiple-mediation analysis was conducted according to a product-of-coefficients approach using seemingly unrelated regression a bootstrapping method was used to reconstruct the distribution for the indirect effects (e.g. data were resampled 1000 times), and thus avoid violating the assumption of normality a summary of the models' direct and indirect effects and their confidence intervals can also be found in (table s4).
Progress?
this progress report therefore aims at documenting the role of climate variability and change on mass-movement processes in mountainous regions through
The description and analysis?
the description and analysis of selected, recent mass movements where effects of global warming and the occurrence of heavy precipitation are thought to have contributed to, or triggered, events
Who projected?
as projected by global circulation models (gcm) and regional climate model (rcm) runs
this progress report therefore aims at documenting the role of climate variability and change on mass-movement processes in mountainous regions through (1) the description and analysis of selected, recent mass movements where effects of global warming and the occurrence of heavy precipitation are thought to have contributed to, or triggered, events. we then address (2) possible effects of future climatic changes - as projected by global circulation models (gcm) and regional climate model (rcm) runs - on the occurrence of future mass-movement processes, and (3) speculate about possible consequences of climate and mass movements on hazards and risks. most examples illustrated in this report are from the european alps with a clear focus on case studies from high-elevation sites in switzerland.
When broken the Groundwater Management Act?
the groundwater management act was brokered by then governor bruce babbitt in response to a threat from the federal government to withdraw support for the central arizona project, a 530km-long aqueduct designed to deliver colorado river water to the rapidly growing desert cities of phoenix and tucson of central and southern arizona
What is delicate and complicated set of agreements?
the successful legislation resulted from a delicate and complicated set of agreements from the state's water stakeholders: farmers, utilities, industry, native american communities, and municipalities (connall 1982; jacobs and holway 2004
What is USHCN?
we use a time series of water use measured in terms of annual liters per capita per day that was developed by phoenix city government to meet its reporting requirements under the groundwater management act of 1980, per-household monthly water consumption for single-family homes based on the authors' calculations from phoenix city-government metered water records, and climate records from the u.s. historical climatology network (ushcn) to evaluate the effect of climate variability on water use. results yield estimates of potential water consumption under different drought conditions and suggest the relative importance of climate versus nonclimate determinants of water demand
in 1980, the state of arizona passed landmark legislation to reduce drastically the mining of its underground aquifers. the groundwater management act was brokered by then governor bruce babbitt in response to a threat from the federal government to withdraw support for the central arizona project, a 530km-long aqueduct designed to deliver colorado river water to the rapidly growing desert cities of phoenix and tucson of central and southern arizona. the successful legislation resulted from a delicate and complicated set of agreements from the state's water stakeholders: farmers, utilities, industry, native american communities, and municipalities (connall 1982; jacobs and holway 2004). to win concessions from farmers and other users, municipalities agreed to reduce gradually their per capita water consumption. most communities, including the city of phoenix, implemented water conservation policies, such as distributing water-saving devices, requiring low-flow devices for new and replacement fixtures, establishing educational programs, and creating pricing structures (campbell 2004). although annual water consumption has declined in a general way, sizable annual variation, presumably related in some part to climate variability, confounds efforts to evaluate systematically the effects of water conservation and behavior changes in use (fig. 1). climatic variability is particularly relevant in phoenix because it is estimated that 74% of residential water use is for outdoor purposes, which are sensitive to variations in temperature and rainfall (mayer and deoreo 1999). we use a time series of water use measured in terms of annual liters per capita per day that was developed by phoenix city government to meet its reporting requirements under the groundwater management act of 1980, per-household monthly water consumption for single-family homes based on the authors' calculations from phoenix city-government metered water records, and climate records from the u.s. historical climatology network (ushcn) to evaluate the effect of climate variability on water use. results yield estimates of potential water consumption under different drought conditions and suggest the relative importance of climate versus nonclimate determinants of water demand.
where does the experiment performed?
the experiment was performed in garraf natural park (barcelona, spain) (41 1 180n, 1 1 540e) at 300 m asl
how many years  growing on old agricultural terraces?
which were abandoned about 100 years ago and have been burnt several times since then
when was the last fire accured?
the last fire occurred in 1994
the experiment was performed in garraf natural park (barcelona, spain) (41 1 180n, 1 1 540e) at 300 m asl. the climate is mediterranean with cool, moderately wet winters and hot, dry summers. stony and basic soils have developed over cretaceous limestone. the vegetation is a short shrubland (less than 1 m high) growing on old agricultural terraces (vineyards), which were abandoned about 100 years ago and have been burnt several times since then. the last fire occurred in 1994, so it is an early successional community dominated by woody species such as the nanophanerophytes erica multiflora l globularia alypum l, and dorycnium pentaphyllum scop., helianthemum syriacum (jacq.) dum.-cours. and the chamaephytes fumana ericoides (cav.) gandg fumana thymifolia (l.) spach ex webb, coris monspeliensis l. and polygala rupestris pourr.
There is considerable research activity in what area?
combining satellite and land-based information to produce long-term, high-resolution weather data sets
what is the situation for climate and weather data monitoring in many developing countries
poor and deteriorating
considerable investment will be needed to do what?
improve climate and weather monitoring
third, there is a great need to improve the monitoring of local conditions, not only to provide data and information for improving our understanding and our models, but also to guide effective adaptation (for example, through downscaling climate model output to local situations) and to provide information for yield early-warning systems and locallyappropriate indices for weather-based crop and livestock insurance schemes. the situation for climate and weather data monitoring in many developing countries is poor and deteriorating. there is considerable research activity in combining satellite and land-based information to produce long-term, high-resolution weather data sets (for example, maidment et al., 2013). such hybrid datasets have considerable potential to ease the weather data problem in some countries, but they are not a replacement for land-based weather measurement, however, and considerable investment will be needed to improve climate and weather monitoring. improved monitoring of local food systems (in relation to food production and accessibility, for example) and of the environment (in relation to local crop and rangeland conditions, for example) are also needed to provide readily actionable information. the tradition of monitoring and surveillance for disease outbreaks within the
What was done to assess the seedling habitat preference? we performed chi-square tests comparing the occupied microhabitat with the available microhabitat
to evaluate seedling habitat preference, we performed chi-square tests comparing the occupied microhabitat with the available microhabitat
What was used to do the analysis? We used the seven classes of substrate mentioned above
for this analysis, we used the seven substrate classes mentioned above (field data section), and we expected an even distribution of seedlings in the distinct substrate classes
When was Yates' correction applied? was applied when at least one expected frequency was less than 5,
the yates' correction was applied when at least one expected frequency was lower than 5, to prevent overestimation of statistical significance for small data sets
to evaluate seedling habitat preference, we performed chi-square tests comparing the occupied microhabitat with the available microhabitat. for this analysis, we used the seven substrate classes mentioned above (field data section), and we expected an even distribution of seedlings in the distinct substrate classes. the yates' correction was applied when at least one expected frequency was lower than 5, to prevent overestimation of statistical significance for small data sets. to compare the distributions of distances from seedlings to protective elements among plots, we used paired kolmogorov-smirnov tests with the bonferroni adjustment of the significance level. to evaluate the effects of nurse krummholz individuals on seedling survival and growth as a function of the seedling position with respect to the krummholz, we used generalized linear models (glms). glms were performed for the first and second year after plantation, thus using the relative year of plantation and including the seedlings of both cohorts. winter and seedling position (distance and orientation) were used as predictors. we analysed seedling survival by means of logistic regression models (glms with a logit link function) since survival data presented a binomial error distribution (wilson hardy, 2002). orientation and winter were defined as predictor factors with four and two levels respectively, and distance as a predictor ordinate factor with three levels (0.25 m, 0.5 m, 1 m). furthermore, the initial seedling height was introduced as a covariate. when performing the growth models, we sorted the data as a multinomial ordination (2-cm growth classes) since this variable did not follow a normal distribution, and was heteroscedastic. this allowed us to perform glms with a poisson distribution, which yields results equivalent to those of the multinomial distribution (burnham anderson, 2000). predictors for the growth glms were the same as in the analysis of seedling survival. finally, and only for the 2004 cohort from which we had reliable data, we developed a more precise model to test whether nurse krummholz size had a significant effect on the pattern of seedling survival. for this purpose, we performed glms with the predictors mentioned above plus a new covariate; the krummholz height:crown width ratio. this is a potential indicator of the size of snowdrift accumulation near krummholz individuals (daly, 1984). all glms were fitted by using a maximum likelihood method, and chi-square tests were conducted to evaluate whether glm predictors explained a significant fraction of the total deviance or not (guisan
What is ensemble?
as ensemble and probabilistic prediction matured in weather forecasting, it has been possible to compare different types of ensemble and different perturbation techniques by examining verification scores over large numbers of forecasting cases
What is PDFs?
the basic approach to generating probability density functions (pdfs) can be characterized using bayes' theorem p d s j data th f p d s th p d data j s th d 5 1 th where data is some collection of observed climate variables; s is the prediction variable of interest; and p denotes the probability
what is the function or observational constraint?
the presence of a strong concentration of probability density via a tight likelihood function or observational constraint (see below), the prior distribution of s should have little impact on the posterior predictive distribution. however, this is not generally the case (so far) in climate change prediction, so the prior distribution can have a leading-order influence on the prediction
as ensemble and probabilistic prediction matured in weather forecasting, it has been possible to compare different types of ensemble and different perturbation techniques by examining verification scores over large numbers of forecasting cases. such verification can then feed directly back to improve the forecasting system. as stated above, this is not practical in climate prediction. the basic approach to generating probability density functions (pdfs) can be characterized using bayes' theorem p d s j data th f p d s th p d data j s th d 5 1 th where data is some collection of observed climate variables; s is the prediction variable of interest; and p denotes the probability. the formula says that the posterior probability of s is proportional to the prior probability of s (without reference to observed data) multiplied by the likelihood, the probability of obtaining the data for a given value of s in practice, the application of the formula can get very complicated and more details can be found in the papers in this issue and the references therein. however, equation (5.1) is useful in discussing some of the generic issues of generating pdfs. the role of the prior has been much discussed. in the presence of a strong concentration of probability density via a tight likelihood function or observational constraint (see below), the prior distribution of s should have little impact on the posterior predictive distribution. however, this is not generally the case (so far) in climate change prediction, so the prior distribution can have a leading-order influence on the prediction. one obvious way of calculating the prior would be to draw from the 'space of all possible models'. owing to the complexity of climate models, the definition of a metric of distance between models cannot (or at least has yet to) be defined. some authors have defined the prior distribution in the perturbed physics ensemble case in terms of the output of the ensemble computed for some assumed (usually expert specified) distributions for the range of the model parameters 1963 ensembles and probabilities
Why is the representation of all stakeholders important in climate change decision-making?
because developing countries may face the worst impacts
Why is it not enough to acknowledge the vulnerability of developing nations and marginalized voices in decisions?
few policy proposals contain mechanisms to improve negotiation abilities other than ensuring that developing countries are at the table, often through the inclusion of the clean development mechanism (cdm) or other transfer mechanisms
How can procedural justice help in climate change decision making processes?
procedural justice has also entered the conversation through emphasis on sub-national adaptation
procedural justice stresses the importance of representation of all stakeholders in a decision. this has been applied in two ways in the climate context. the first is the idea that global climate impacts require representation of all countries in climate negotiations. because developing countries may face the worst impacts, 'the successful integration of such issues into the mainstream debates and the emerging climate regime is contingent on the ability of vulnerable nations and marginalized people to gain a voice' (sagar and banuri, 1999, p.513). although this point is widely acknowledged (agarwal and narain, 2001; ikeme, 2003; najam et al., 2003; mace, 2006; adger et al., 2006), few policy proposals contain mechanisms to improve negotiation abilities other than ensuring that developing countries are at the table, often through the inclusion of the clean development mechanism (cdm) or other transfer mechanisms. procedural justice has also entered the conversation through emphasis on sub-national adaptation. it has been argued that, because impacts and adaptation occur locally, procedural justice should include
Which approach do they use?
we use a "toolkit approach
What is Forest Service?
the forest service is organized traditionally by resource areas (e.g., timber, range, watershed, recreation, wilderness), we move beyond disciplinary organization to introduce process-oriented approaches this is intended to provoke innovative thinking about the challenges and opportunities that climate change brings, and to stimulate dynamic and effective solutions
What do the text boxes show?
show the relationship of familiar resource areas to the conceptual framework
in this section, we present a conceptual framework for developing adaptation options on federal lands. the strategic steps, tactical steps, and examples discussed here were developed in collaboration with resource managers, planners, and deci sionmakers. we use a "toolkit approach," offering an array of options from which approaches that are most effective and appropriate for specific projects, landscapes, time scales, resource areas, and budgets can be selected. whereas the forest service is organized traditionally by resource areas (e.g., timber, range, watershed, recreation, wilderness), we move beyond disciplinary organization to introduce process-oriented approaches this is intended to provoke innovative thinking about the challenges and opportunities that climate change brings, and to stimulate dynamic and effective solutions. examples in text boxes (e.g., box 12) show the relationship of familiar resource areas to the conceptual framework.
Which are the three distinct parameters where anthropogenic climate change arise?
anthropogenic climate change is an intricate problem arising from complex interactions between three distinct parameters - energy, economics, and environment
What is the effect of the current stance with energy?
the current stance with energy generally seen as an exogenous input to economic planning, but detached from the reality of supply is not capable of providing the all-inclusive view required to fully depict mankind's interaction with the global climate system
What is justified without quantitative assessments?
the transition from conventional to unconventional oil and gas is assumed to be smooth in sres (2000) as new technology allows tar sands, gas hydrates and similar fuels to be exploited. this is justified without quantitative assessments
anthropogenic climate change is an intricate problem arising from complex interactions between three distinct parameters - energy, economics, and environment. energy is essential for economic growth and the development of society, but also a major factor for mankind's emission of ghgs. the core of the poodle is the realisation that these three threads are not separate questions, but rather a single issue that necessitates a holistic treatment. the current stance with energy generally seen as an exogenous input to economic planning, but detached from the reality of supply is not capable of providing the all-inclusive view required to fully depict mankind's interaction with the global climate system. to illustrate this problem, we illuminate some of the complexities found within this interdependent conflux of energy, economics and environmental impacts. 15 sres (2000) also portrays the importance of unconventional fossil hydrocarbons, justified sres (2000) also portrays the importance of unconventional fossil hydrocarbons, justified by rogner (1997) and gregory and rogner (1998). as an example, the b1 family assumes that massive unconventional oil and gas supplies have a geographic distribution widely different from conventional resources and that will have a major impact on future fuel supply and trade flows. the transition from conventional to unconventional oil and gas is assumed to be smooth in sres (2000) as new technology allows tar sands, gas hydrates and similar fuels to be exploited. this is justified without quantitative assessments.
What influenced the county monitoring data?
it is important to recognize that the county monitoring data are influenced by fresh nitrogen oxide emissions largely derived from traffic sources which cause titration (loss) of ozone in the urban areas
Where is the  nitrogen oxide emissions largely derived from?
nitrogen oxide emissions largely derived from traffic sources which cause titration (loss) of ozone in the urban areas
Betwe4en urban and rural areas, which areas have the most ozone concentrations?
consequently, urban monitors will record relatively low ozone concentrations while nearby more rural monitors will record higher ozone concentrations
it is important to recognize that the county monitoring data are influenced by fresh nitrogen oxide emissions largely derived from traffic sources which cause titration (loss) of ozone in the urban areas, while the model results, based upon 36 km grids, tend to minimize this effect since the nox emissions are diluted significantly due to the size of the grid. this is clear from evaluation of the modeling system which consistently shows that the model overestimates low ozone levels. consequently, urban monitors will record relatively low ozone concentrations while nearby more rural monitors will record higher ozone concentrations. the model results will not correctly reflect these differences. this is clear from evaluation of the modeling system which consistently shows that the model overestimates low ozone levels (chen et al., 2008).
What causes the size aggregation of aerosols in the uplift?
within this uplift, there is size segregation as larger aerosols with appreciable terminal velocities (proportional to the radius squared) move upward either more slowly or downward if they are suf fi ciently large
What happens if the aerosol moves into a warmer environment?
if the aerosol moves into a warmer environment, such as above approximately 32 - 35 km altitude, the aerosol evaporates
What is one mechanism that can transport aerosol in the vicinity of the tropopause into the troposphere?
aerosol in the vicinity of the tropopause can be transported into the troposphere by a variety of mechanisms including directly by sedimentation of large aerosol
kremser et al. stratospheric aerosol 286 for instance, aerosols in the tropical stratosphere are transported upward by the bdc (section 2.1). within this uplift, there is size segregation as larger aerosols with appreciable terminal velocities (proportional to the radius squared) move upward either more slowly or downward if they are suf fi ciently large. thus, stratospheric aerosols are typically small particles with a radius below 0.2 m m during periods that are unaffected by volcanic eruptions sparc 2006]. if the aerosol moves into a warmer environment, such as above approximately 32 - 35 km altitude, the aerosol evaporates. as a result, virtually all sulfur resides in the gas phase in this altitude region and aerosol concentrations decrease rapidly close to this altitude. therefore, ground-based and satellite-based lidar measurements often base their calibrations on this relatively aerosol-free region vernier et al., 2009]. the new gas phase sulfur is eventually transported to high latitudes where, in the downward branch of bdc, it encounters lower temperatures favorable for recondensation to sulfate aerosols. the large-scale transport and isentropic mixing of aerosols together with nucleation/condensation and sedimentation result in a quasi-steady relative maximum in particle number concentration at around 20 km (junge layer), depending on latitude deshler 2008]. aerosol in the vicinity of the tropopause can be transported into the troposphere by a variety of mechanisms including directly by sedimentation of large aerosol. sedimentation is a particularly important stratospheric loss mechanism in the aftermath of a major eruption like pinatubo and a critical element of the vertical distribution of sulfur throughout the stratosphere. as a result, it is vitally important that chemistry-climate models (section 6) accurately model the size and growth processes of aerosol and account for nonconservative transport of aerosol to reproduce the observed distributions of aerosol and sulfur throughout the stratosphere.
The soft cambium provided carbohydrate and other nutrients (Martorano 1981) and was probably used for?
used primarily as an emergency food source (swetnam 1984
Other fire-scar studies?
the chiricahua mountains of arizona (seklecki et al. 1996) and the organ mountains of new mexico (morino 1996
Highest fire frequencies occurred during
periods of maximal conflict among all sides, while reduced fire frequencies occurred when truces with apaches were in effect
e1 based on our research in the southwest and sierras, we conclude that native american control of past fire regimes was very time and place specific, and cannot be broadly generalized as ubiquitous or dominant in all places and times. fire regimes in large portions of these regions would probably have had similar characteristics (fire frequency, seasonality, extent, etc.) if people had never entered the americas. it is clear, however, that people profoundly affected fire regimes in particular places and times. for example, in a study of more than 200 firerelated quotations in spanish, mexican, and american archival documents (relevant to the southwest) extending back to the seventeenth century, kaib (1998) found that more than 70% were in the context of warfare with the apache people of southern arizona and new mexico. intentional burning of large areas was very rare, except during times of warfare. the use of fire against enemies was a common practice used by all sides--apache, spaniard, mexican, and american soldiers. combatants burned particular places (campsites, livestock watering and grazing areas, etc.) during conflicts, but intentional burning of broader areas was only rarely mentioned in the documentary sources. the general picture was one of great temporal and spatial variability and specificity in the firing of landscapes during warfare. this emphasis on the time and place specific influence of native americans on past regimes in the southwest is supported by tree-ring studies. for example, a tree-ring study of eighteenthand nineteenth-century fire history in several mountain ranges of southern arizona and northern mexico revealed that fire frequency generally tracked the occurrences of peacetime and wartime (kaib et al. 1996; kaib 1998). based on place name references in archival documents, it was evident that some of the sampled stands were located near historic campsites or travel routes. highest fire frequencies occurred during periods of maximal conflict among all sides, while reduced fire frequencies occurred when truces with apaches were in effect. other fire-scar studies in the chiricahua mountains of arizona (seklecki et al. 1996) and the organ mountains of new mexico (morino 1996) also found evidence of changing fire frequencies and seasonal timing that were speculated to be related to presence or absence of apaches. again, these study sites were located in specific areas where independent documentary sources indicate historical usage by apaches. in a detailed case study in the sacramento mountains, kaye and swetnam (1999) used independent documentary records and tree-ring dates of "culturally modified trees" to pinpoint the presence of apaches in both time and place. in this study the culturally modified trees were "peeled" ponderosa pines that the apaches had used as a food source by peeling the bark and cambium layer from a section of the lower bole (swetnam 1984). the soft cambium provided carbohydrate and other nutrients (martorano 1981) and was probably used primarily as an emergency food source (swetnam 1984). tree-ring dates from the peelings, and documented dates of skirmishes between apaches and soldiers within and near the study area, were used to assess frequency and season of fires during known occupation periods versus other times. we also assessed regional climatic associations with fire dates and fire frequency trends.
Before joining the IRI, Dr. Baethgen was a Senior Scientist for what organization?
before joining the iri, dr. baethgen was a senior scientist in the research and development division of ifdc (international soil fertility and agricultural development center
From 1989-90, where did Dr. Baethgen work as a consultant?
during 1989-90, he acted as a consultant for the food and agriculture organization (fao) of the united nations in colonia, uruguay
When was Dr. Baethgen stationed with IFDC in Montevideo, Uruguay?
in 1990, he was stationed with ifdc in montevideo, uruguay
before joining the iri, dr. baethgen was a senior scientist in the research and development division of ifdc (international soil fertility and agricultural development center) where he worked mainly in information and decision support systems for the agricultural sector (1987-2003). during 1989-90, he acted as a consultant for the food and agriculture organization (fao) of the united nations in colonia, uruguay. in 1990, he was stationed with ifdc in montevideo, uruguay, to establish and coordinate regional research programs in latin america in collaboration with national and international organizations. dr. baethgen has acted as a consultant for the inter-american development bank (idb), the united nations (fao, undp, unido), the international atomic energy agency (iaea), the world bank and the inter-american institute for agricultural science (iica).
Who led the opposition against mandatory GHG emissions reductions in the U.S. and internationally in the 1990s?
in the 1990s, many major america corporations and trade associations led the opposition against mandatory ghg emissions reductions in the u.s. and internationally (levy, 2005; skjearseth skodvin, 2001
The Business Environmental Leadership Council of the Pew Center on Global Climate Change consists of how many major companies?
the business environmental leadership council of the pew center on global climate change consists of 41 major companies from north america, europe, and japan that believe that business engagement is critical for developing effective solutions to climate change
What kind of an organization is the degClimate Group?
the degclimate group is an international non-profit organization whose 26 members include major private
in the 1990s, many major america corporations and trade associations led the opposition against mandatory ghg emissions reductions in the u.s. and internationally (levy, 2005; skjearseth skodvin, 2001). in recent years, however, numerous u.s. companies have initiated measures to reduce their ghg emissions (aulisi, layke, putt del pino, 2004; eizenstat kraiem, 2005). the business environmental leadership council of the pew center on global climate change consists of 41 major companies from north america, europe, and japan that believe that business engagement is critical for developing effective solutions to climate change. members include a diverse set of companies from the energy, manufacturing, financial services, and technology sectors. similarly, the degclimate group is an international non-profit organization whose 26 members include major private
What suggests that farm management in many Mediterranean regions is largely adapted to climate variability?
the weak relationships between climate variability and wheat yield variability
Where is farm management more focused on achieving high yields?
in regions where prevailing climatic conditions are more favorable
Who showed that the resilience of a system decreases rapidly when maximum profit is approached?
fletcher and hilbert
fig. 1. spatial distribution of average wheat yields (t/ha), and relationships to average temperature (temp, degc) from 1990-2003. this figure indicates that, spatially, there is a negative relationship between wheat yields and temperature. largely influenced by regional socioeconomic conditions and farm management. these factors are often not considered in crop models, but can greatly modify the climate change impacts (ewert et al. 2007). the weak relationships between climate variability and wheat yield variability in many mediterranean regions suggest that farm management here is largely adapted to climate variability. in regions where prevailing climatic conditions are less favorable for wheat growth, farm management is not aimed at achieving maximum yields (reidsma et al. 2007). it seems more focused on coping with climate variability: as risks are larger, more attention is paid to reducing the impacts of risks. in regions where prevailing climatic conditions are more favorable, farm management is more focused on achieving high yields. fletcher and hilbert (2007) showed that the resilience of a system decreases rapidly when maximum profit is approached. when risks are low, aiming for maximizing crop yields (and profit) can be a rational objective, but when risks increase this strategy makes farming systems more vulnerable. in a local study, van der dries (2002) showed that small-scale traditional farmers who take into account variation in water availability can cope better with climate variability than modern intensive farms, which are more dependent on external resources. there is a trade-off between obtaining high productivity and maintaining resilience. in this study, we observe that, especially in regions with high wheat yields, the impact of climate variability on wheat yields is high. hence, the
The evolution of the IOD during its development and peak phase involved what?
the evolution of the iod during its development and peak phase clearly involves active ocean- atmosphere interaction
It involed feedbacks between what?
the coupled mechanism appears to be predominantly dynamical in nature, involving feedbacks between winds and ssts through upper equatorial ocean dynamics
What caused the winds to reverse direction from westerlies to easterlies?
the atmosphere responds to this anomalous sst with a basinwide anomalous walker circulation (yamagata et al. 2002, 2003b) causing the equatorial winds to reverse direction from westerlies to easterlies
the evolution of the iod during its development and peak phase clearly involves active ocean- atmosphere interaction. the coupled mechanism appears to be predominantly dynamical in nature, involving feedbacks between winds and ssts through upper equatorial ocean dynamics (fig. 13a). as noted earlier, during the peak phase of the positive iod events, sst is colder than normal in the east and warmer than normal in the west (fig. 13b). the atmosphere responds to this anomalous sst with a basinwide anomalous walker circulation (yamagata et al. 2002, 2003b) causing the equatorial winds to reverse direction from westerlies to easterlies. the anomalous winds lift (deepen) the thermocline in the east (west) giving rise to a basinwide subsurface dipole as shown in fig. 13b (rao et
What is one aspect of this onshore-offshore trend?
the decline of dense ophiuroid populations in coastal waters during the mesozoic
In which era were stalked crinoids abundant in shallow waters?
in the paleozoic and early mesozoic (bottjer jablonski 1988, meyer macurda 1977
Where does the living stalked crinoids occur?
living stalked crinoids, most of which are in the order isocrinida, occur only offshore
ausich 1986, stanley 1977). as a broad generalization, predation is lower and community structure is archaic in offshore, deep-water habitats compared to nearshore, shallow-water habitats. the decline of dense ophiuroid populations in coastal waters during the mesozoic is one aspect of this onshore-offshore trend. another is that stalked crinoids were abundant in shallow water in the paleozoic and early mesozoic (bottjer jablonski 1988, meyer macurda 1977). living stalked crinoids, most of which are in the order isocrinida, occur only offshore, in water deeper than ~ 100 m, where predation pressure is reduced (oji 1996). the unstalked crinoids (order comatulida), which are mobile, replaced the stalked crinoids in shallow-water environments (meyer macurda 1977). predator-prey dynamics evolved within the context of macroevolutionary events and trends. the end-permian mass extinction accelerated diversification of the modern evolutionary fauna and increased the complexity of post-paleozoic onshore communities, perhaps by creating an ecological vacuum of vacant niches (sepkoski 1991, wagner et al. 2006). the rapid escalation of predator-prey interactions during the mesozoic also coincided with increased productivity (vermeij 1987). more energy permitted the construction of more elaborate antipredatory shell architectures and enabled infauna to dig more actively and to greater depths (bambach 1993). thus, increased productivity helped drive the post-paleozoic radiation of (infaunal) bivalves. these evolutionary innovations of predators and prey transcended the endcretaceous mass extinction, and escalation continued in the cenozoic. episodes of elevated extinction in the cenozoic selectively exterminated well-defended prey taxa, temporarily reversing escalatory trends (vermeij 1987). recent work on living communities in the adriatic sea corroborates the idea that both increasing durophagous predation and increasing productivity drove the post-paleozoic infaunalization of suspension-feeding assemblages in shallow-water, soft-substratum environments. given the background condition of low predation in the adriatic, areas of low productivity support paleozoic-type dense assemblages of epifaunal suspension feeders. areas of high productivity are characterized by modern-style assemblages of more energetic, infaunal suspension and deposit feeders (mckinney hageman 2006). the same pattern holds in antarctica, with retrograde, epifaunally dominated benthic communities requiring oligotrophic conditions in addition to low levels of predation (dayton oliver 1977).
Which region is characterized by severe and frequent droughts?
african sahel
past global efforts at dealing with the problem of global warming concentrated on mitigation, with the aim of reducing and possibly stabilizing greenhouse gas (ghg) concentrations in the atmosphere. with the slow progress in achieving this, adaptation was viewed as a viable option to reduce the vulnerability to the anticipated negative impacts of global warming. it is increasingly realized that mitigation and adaptation should not be pursued independent of each other but as complements. this has resulted in the recent calls for the integration of adaptation into mitigation strategies. however, integrating mitigation and adaptation into climate change concerns is not a completely new idea in the african sahel. the region is characterized by severe and frequent droughts with records dating back into centuries. the local populations in this region, through their indigenous knowledge systems, have developed and implemented extensive mitigation and adaptation strategies that have enabled them reduce their vulnerability to past climate variability and change, which exceed those predicted by models of future climate change. however, this knowledge is rarely taken into consideration in the design and implementation of modern mitigation and adaptation strategies. this paper highlights some indigenous mitigation and adaptation strategies that have been practiced in the sahel, and the benefits of integrating indigenous knowledge into formal climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. incorporating indigenous knowledge can add value to the development of sustainable climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies that are rich in local content, and planned in conjunction with local people.
What is one of the recommendations of the OECS 2011a?
to create, update and harmonize information systems and databases in order to share water policy at river basin, national and international levels
Who collects and provides data for the baseline assessments?
the cities or their utilities
utilities in general obtain a lot of information on their water and wastewater services. one of the recommendations of the oecd 2011a is to create, update and harmonize information systems and databases in order to share water policy at river basin, national and international levels. most of the data for the baseline assessments (city blueprints) of cities have been collected and provided by the cities or their utilities (koop and van leeuwen 2015a b ). the collection of data is time-consuming, both for the utility and for the scientists who gather these data in order to provide baseline assessments of iwrm. some of this knowledge is collated and held by water management actors including the utility
Are the consumption choices of pipeable and non-pipeable houses similar?
we find that households that have access to natural gas (pipeable) and households that do not have access (non-pipeable) make different consumption choices
Is the difference in consumption due to the choice of natural gas?
it is not clear whether the additional choice of natural gas alone is the source of this distinction or whether there is an unmeasured characteristic that makes pipeable and nonpipeable households different
Where are these households located?
these households are more likely to be in a metropolitan area
our residential results suggest there is another important distinction to make in energy demand. we find that households that have access to natural gas (pipeable) and households that do not have access (non-pipeable) make different consumption choices. we consequently analyze residential fuel choice and conditional demand separately for pipeable and non-pipeable households. it is not clear whether the additional choice of natural gas alone is the source of this distinction or whether there is an unmeasured characteristic that makes pipeable and nonpipeable households different. for example, these households are more likely to be in a metropolitan area. however, they do not differ with respect to climate.13
Among the people who adopted coping and adaptation measures, most were what?
among the people who adopted coping and adaptation measures, most were not fully successful in avoiding residual impacts
In the Bhutan study area, what percentage of households adopted measures to deal with changing monsoon patterns and reduced availability of water for rice cultivation reported that they were still experiencing adverse effects despite the adaptation measures?
in the bhutan study area, 87% of households that adopted measures to deal with changing monsoon patterns and reduced availability of water for rice cultivation reported that they were still experiencing adverse effects despite the adaptation measures
What does the last column of Table 2 show?
the last column of table 2 shows the proportion of the survey population that incurred loss and damage, which was calculated as the sum of those who still experience adverse effects despite adopting measures to cope or adapt plus those who were affected, but did not adopt any measures in response
among the people who adopted coping and adaptation measures, most were not fully successful in avoiding residual impacts. for example, in the bhutan study area, 87% of households that adopted measures to deal with changing monsoon patterns and reduced availability of water for rice cultivation reported that they were still experiencing adverse effects despite the adaptation measures (kusters and wangdi, 2013). similar results were found, albeit with a variety of different coping and adaptation measures, for all the other case studies (see table 2). the last column of table 2 shows the proportion of the survey population that incurred loss and damage, which was calculated as the sum of those who still experience adverse effects despite adopting measures to cope or adapt plus those who were affected, but did not adopt any measures in response (reasons for non-adoption are mentioned in table 6). in eight of the nine study sites, this proportion was between 60
Native range divided into how many categories?
occurrence data for the argentine ant in the native range were divided into two categories depending on their position in relation to a grid of 2 2
How occurrence data present in circles and triangles?
independent occurrence data are overlaid in each prediction, presences in circles and absences in triangles
Darker shades represents what?
darker shading indicates greater model agreement in predicting potential argentine ant presence
illustration of tests used to assess model predictivity for two environmental datasets (climate and ndvi). occurrence data for the argentine ant in the native range were divided into two categories depending on their position in relation to a grid of 2 2. independent occurrence data are overlaid in each prediction, presences in circles and absences in triangles. the first column presents predictions based on all native occurrence data combined, and second and third columns present predictions based on the two reciprocal spatial subdivisions of the available native occurrence data, with appropriate test dataset overlaid. darker shading indicates greater model agreement in predicting potential argentine ant presence. climate change and geographical potential n. roura-pascual and others 2529
What is velocity of climate change ?
the velocity of climate change is an elegant analytical concept that can be used to evaluate the exposure of organisms to climate change
Explain the present to future and future to present velocities ?
with source and destination information available, forward and backward velocities can be calculated allowing useful inferences about conservation of species (present-to-future velocities) and management of species populations (future-to-present velocities
the velocity of climate change is an elegant analytical concept that can be used to evaluate the exposure of organisms to climate change. in essence, one divides the rate of climate change by the rate of spatial climate variability to obtain a speed at which species must migrate over the surface of the earth to maintain constant climate conditions. however, to apply the algorithm for conservation and management purposes, additional information is needed to improve realism at local scales. for example, destination information is needed to ensure that vectors describing speed and direction of required migration do not point toward a climatic cul-de-sac by pointing beyond mountain tops. here, we present an analytical approach that conforms to standard velocity algorithms if climate equivalents are nearby. otherwise, the algorithm extends the search for climate refugia, which can be expanded to search for multivariate climate matches. with source and destination information available, forward and backward velocities can be calculated allowing useful inferences about conservation of species (present-to-future velocities) and management of species populations (future-to-present velocities).
Why were less intensive manual measurements designed?
less intensive manual measurements were designed to describe broader patterns of response in terms of magnitude and consistency across species, size classes, and sites
What were they accompanied by?
these were accompanied by high-resolution electromechanical measurements designed to describe diurnal increment patterns associated with hourly changes in water use and stem increment for a few intensively monitored trees
How many species did the 86 trees for which manual measurements were obtained represent?
the 86 trees for which manual measurements were obtained represented 10 species
measurements of stem increment were of two types. less intensive manual measurements were designed to describe broader patterns of response in terms of magnitude and consistency across species, size classes, and sites. these were accompanied by high-resolution electromechanical measurements designed to describe diurnal increment patterns associated with hourly changes in water use and stem increment for a few intensively monitored trees. the 86 trees for which manual measurements were obtained represented 10 species. manual measures of circumference changes at approximately 2-wk intervals were recorded for all trees at all sites and were linked to electromechanical measurements of radius changes at 30-min intervals for six trees at the high-elevation lr site. the manual measures were of gap changes on tensioned metal bands and were obtained with digital calipers to an average precision of 0.02 mm. high-resolution measurements of radius changes were obtained with electromechanical dendrometers (agroelectronics inc., tucson, az, usa) mounted at approx. 1.5 m above ground. electronic sensors (sensitivity
Is climate change leading to changing transportation demand the only effect?
it is also important to consider transportation trends and forecasts(4)and whether these are likely to amplify or reduce weather-related disruptions and costs
What trends do we see for North American travel?
most projections for north america forecast greater mobility in the decades ahead, both in an absolute sense and per capita, with road and air travel growing most rapidly
economic and social factors are the main drivers of transportation demand. because climate change is likely to affect local and regional economies, it will likely also have an indirect effect on transportation demand. while it is impossible to estimate the consequences of climate change for transportation demand with any certainty, it seems intuitive that climate change could affect the location and timing of demands for transportation of specific freight commodities, particularly those that are weather sensitive. for instance, should the spatial pattern of agricultural production change in response to an extended growing season or other climate-related factors see 'agriculture' chapter), it is reasonable to expect some new demands for transportation to arise and some existing ones to wane. it is also reasonable to expect that climate change will impact tourism, regional growth, energy production and even immigration, with implications for geographic patterns of movement and demands on the various modes of transportation. in addition to climate-triggered changes in demand, it is also important to consider transportation trends and forecasts(4)and whether these are likely to amplify or reduce weather-related disruptions and costs. most projections for north america forecast greater mobility in the decades ahead, both in an absolute sense and per capita, with road and air travel growing most rapidly.(4)at present, both road and air travel have a number of weather sensitivities that are likely to continue into the future. these need to be addressed appropriately in climate change impacts and adaptation studies, as well as in decision making in the transportation sector.
What was argued to be a new form of columinism?
they argue that carbon trading is a new form of colonialism
Why does the north pay the south?
the north is able to maintain its consumption by paying southern communities a pittance to grow trees or by getting credit for the easy 'low hanging fruit' of carbon savings
In Brazil what was lacking?
in brazil, forestry plantations have been criticised for lack of additionality and for weak benefits to local communities. critics also point to the unfair way in which the pollution rights
but these narratives of ecological modernisation smooth over the profound inequalities that the flexible mechanisms generate, highlighted by groups such as india's centre for science and environment and cornerhouse. they argue that carbon trading is a new form of colonialism whereby the north is able to maintain its consumption by paying southern communities a pittance to grow trees or by getting credit for the easy 'low hanging fruit' of carbon savings in inefficient industrial projects.41a growing number of case studies point to questionable sustainable development benefits of cdm projects.42in south africa, proposed cdm projects for landfill methane capture, gas pipelines and lower carbon housing have been attacked for lack of local participation, injustice and little long term environmental and economic sustainability. in brazil, forestry plantations have been criticised for lack of additionality and for weak benefits to local communities. critics also point to the unfair way in which the pollution rights to the atmosphere were allocated - based on historical emissions rather than population - and the loopholes that were created for certain industrial countries so that they could vary baselines, count sinks, and trade the 'hot air' of reductions achieved inadvertently. for example, by ratifying kyoto and negotiating a zero reduction commitment russia gained enormous potential windfall profits from the decline in its emissions since 1990 - worth more than ps10 billion.43another inequality is found in the price paid for carbon credits. within europe carbon credits have traded as high as 30 euros per tonne (in
Of these two, ETS and non-ETS, which needs more effort in reducing their emissions?
the reduction requirements in the non-ets sectors are in most cases larger than in the ets
Is it likely that the NAPs will help minimize the costs of meeting the Kyoto targets?
it is therefore likely that the naps do not minimize the costs of meeting the kyoto targets
Do ETS or non-ETS emissions grow faster?
the emissions of the ets sectors grow faster than the emissions of the non-ets sectors in the bau scenario
since the emissions of the ets sectors grow faster than the emissions of the non-ets sectors in the bau scenario, the targets from the naps imply that considerable reduction efforts in the ets sectors are needed in order to meet the targets in 2012. nevertheless, the reduction requirements in the non-ets sectors are in most cases larger than in the ets. it is therefore likely that the naps do not minimize the costs of meeting the kyoto targets. this is analyzed in the following sections. 4.2. the ets without cdm and ji the first scenario looks at the outcome of the climate policy measures laid out in the national allocation plans (nap) but leaves the project-based mechanism outside the system. this nocdm scenario has emissions trading
Which are the essential things for biological removal of phosphorus?
it is essential to have anaerobic and aerobic zones in the treatment line for the biological removal of phosphorus
Name the process occurring in warm-climate regions.
nitrification occurs almost systematically in the activated sludge plants in warm-climate regions
As far as phosphorus accumulating organisms are concerned, which zone is considered as the biological selector?
the anaerobic zone is considered a biological selector for the phosphorus accumulating organisms
sequencing batch reactors e) activated sludge with biological nitrogen and phosphorus removal although phosphorus removal can be considered as a tertiary treatment, biological removal is presented in this section on secondary treatment because it consists of essentially biological mechanisms and can be achieved through adaptations of the activated sludge process flowsheet at a secondary level. it is essential to have anaerobic and aerobic zones in the treatment line for the biological removal of phosphorus. the anaerobic zone is considered a biological selector for the phosphorus accumulating organisms. this zone allows an advantage in terms of competition for the phosphorus accumulating organisms, since they can assimilate the substrate of this zone before the other microorganisms. in this way, the anaerobic zone gives good conditions for the development or selection of a large population of phosphorus accumulating organisms in the system, which absorb substantial quantities of phosphorus from the liquid, much higher than the normal metabolic requirements. when the biological excess sludge is wasted from the system, phosphorus is removed, since it is present at high concentrations in the phosphorus accumulating organisms that are part of the withdrawn sludge. some of the main processes used for both nitrogen and phosphorus removal in the activated sludge system are listed below. processes employed to remove just phosphorus are not listed due to the difficulties that these undergo with the presence of nitrates in the anaerobic zone. nitrification occurs almost systematically in the activated sludge plants in warm-climate regions. if efficient denitrification overview of wastewater treatment systems 211 is not provided in the reactor, substantial quantities of nitrates are returned to the anaerobic zone through the recycle lines, impairing the maintenance of strict anaerobic conditions in the anaerobic zone. for this reason, nitrogen removal is encouraged, even if, in terms of the water body requirements, there is only the need to remove phosphorus. the processes are only listed here, but are further detailed in chapters 35 and 36. the literature presents a diverging nomenclature in relation to some processes, as a function of variations between commercial and scientific designations.
Write a reasonable, answerable question to the Question field.
jacobson (c)2014. american geophysical union. all rights reserved. 8981 (~0.31% to 0.28%) in net anthropogenic global warming (agw) of ~0.8 to 0.9 k to date
Descripe the paragraph:
however, this result does not consider enhanced cloudiness and re fl ectivity due to the water vapor, which likely offsets some or much of this additional warming. also, it does not account for the fact that water vapor absorption bands are already largely saturated, so the addition of amfs, which are incremental moisture fl uxes, may not contribute to warming so much as if no other moisture existed in the atmosphere. a more accurate calculation of agw due to amfs would be with global simulations with and without amfs alone. such simulations were performed here; however, temperature responses were found not to be statistically signi fi cant (table 6). with respect to ahf ' s, ashworth [1929] hypothesized that ahfs from factories operating from monday through half of saturday enhanced convection, thereby explaining higher local rainfall during the week and minimum rainfall on sundays, when the factories were closed. washington [1972] carried out an 80 day global climate response study of the effects of uniformly distributed ahfs on near-surface temperatures but could not distinguish the signal from noise of the model, which was run at coarse horizontal and vertical resolutions and with a fi xed sea-surface temperature
WHAT IS AHFS ?
ahfs from fossil fuels, solid biofuels, and open biomass burning are calculated for an extended period with ocean temperatures and circulation responding to climate forcing. simulations of the combined effects of ahfs and amfs from power plants and, separately, transportation are examined. statistical signi fi cance tests are performed
jacobson (c)2014. american geophysical union. all rights reserved. 8981 (~0.31% to 0.28%) in net anthropogenic global warming (agw) of ~0.8 to 0.9 k to date. however, this result does not consider enhanced cloudiness and re fl ectivity due to the water vapor, which likely offsets some or much of this additional warming. also, it does not account for the fact that water vapor absorption bands are already largely saturated, so the addition of amfs, which are incremental moisture fl uxes, may not contribute to warming so much as if no other moisture existed in the atmosphere. a more accurate calculation of agw due to amfs would be with global simulations with and without amfs alone. such simulations were performed here; however, temperature responses were found not to be statistically signi fi cant (table 6). with respect to ahf ' s, ashworth [1929] hypothesized that ahfs from factories operating from monday through half of saturday enhanced convection, thereby explaining higher local rainfall during the week and minimum rainfall on sundays, when the factories were closed. washington [1972] carried out an 80 day global climate response study of the effects of uniformly distributed ahfs on near-surface temperatures but could not distinguish the signal from noise of the model, which was run at coarse horizontal and vertical resolutions and with a fi xed sea-surface temperature. block et al [2004] simulated the climate response of ahfs from fossil fuels over central europe with a regional climate model and found a strong signal. flanner [2009] quanti fi ed realistic ahfs from recent fossil fuel and solid biofuel combustion, but not open biomass burning. in this study, the global climate responses of spatially distributed ahfs from fossil fuels, solid biofuels, and open biomass burning are calculated for an extended period with ocean temperatures and circulation responding to climate forcing. simulations of the combined effects of ahfs and amfs from power plants and, separately, transportation are examined. statistical signi fi cance tests are performed.
Who will suffer the most when affected by climate change?
the inequity of climate change--with the rich causing most of the problem and the poor initially suff ering most of the consequences--will prove to be a source of historical shame to our generation if nothing is done to address it. raising health status and reducing health inequity will only be reached by lifting billions out of poverty. population growth associated with social and economic transition will initially increase carbon emissions in the poorest countries, in turn exacerbating climate chan
Will climate change urgency open the floor to action that needs to be taken to balance the world inequality crisis?
the eff ects of climate change on health are inextricably linked to global development policy and concerns for health equity. climate change should catalyse the drive to achieve the millennium development goals and to expedite development in the poorest countries. climate change also raises the issue of intergenerational justice. the inequity of climate change--with the rich causing most of the problem and the poor initially suff ering most of the consequences--will prove to be a source of historical shame to our generation if nothing is done to address it. raising health status and reducing health inequity will only be reached by lifting billions out of poverty
Where is an example of how ones life is unequal based on where they live?
l inequalities are killing people on a grand scale, and noted that a girl born today can expect to live up to 80 years if she is born in some countries but less than 45 years if she is born in others. the commission concluded that health equity is achievabl
climate change will have its greatest eff ect on those who have the least access to the world's resources and who have contributed least to its cause. without mitigation and adaptation, it will increase health inequity especially through negative eff ects on the social determinants of health in the poorest communities. despite improvements in health with development, we are still faced with a global health crisis. 10 million children die each year; over 200 million children under 5 years of age are not fulfi lling their developmental potential; 800 million people go to bed each night hungry; and 1500 million people do not have access to clean drinking water. most developing countries will not reach the millennium development goal health targets by 2015. in september, 2008, the who commission on social determinants of health reported that social inequalities are killing people on a grand scale, and noted that a girl born today can expect to live up to 80 years if she is born in some countries but less than 45 years if she is born in others. the commission concluded that health equity is achievable in a generation, it is the right thing to do, and now is the right time to do it. the eff ects of climate change on health are inextricably linked to global development policy and concerns for health equity. climate change should catalyse the drive to achieve the millennium development goals and to expedite development in the poorest countries. climate change also raises the issue of intergenerational justice. the inequity of climate change--with the rich causing most of the problem and the poor initially suff ering most of the consequences--will prove to be a source of historical shame to our generation if nothing is done to address it. raising health status and reducing health inequity will only be reached by lifting billions out of poverty. population growth associated with social and economic transition will initially increase carbon emissions in the poorest countries, in turn exacerbating climate change unless rich countries, the major contributors to global carbon production, massively reduce their output. luxury emissions are diff erent from survival emissions, which emphasises the need for a strategy of contraction and convergence, whereby rich countries rapidly reduce emissions and poor countries can increase emissions to achieve health and development gain, both having the same sustainable emissions per person.
What is the effect of global climate change on infectious diseases?
current climatic conditions are what limit the distribution of these diseases
What are diseases that could be impacted by climate change?
climate change is frequently invoked as a primary cause of expansions in incidence of tick-borne diseases, particularly lyme disease
anthropogenic climate change over the past century has led to mean global temperatures consistently above those historically recorded as well as to increased variability in temperature and precipitation one of the most discussed, but perhaps least understood consequences of global climate change is its effect on infectious disease and human health [2,3]. although there is no shortage of predictions for how infectious disease will expand or shift in range, most are built upon the assumption that current climatic conditions are what limit the distribution of these diseases, e.g. whether or not this assumption holds, however, is rarely known [5,6], in part because of difficulties demonstrating the cause(s) of absence this is particularly true for tick-borne diseases where data on mechanistic relationships between climate and physiology of the tick vector and pathogen are often limited. climate change is frequently invoked as a primary cause of expansions in incidence of tick-borne diseases, particularly lyme disease. in the nearly 40 years since lyme disease was first described, both the number and geographical range of reported human cases have increased dramatically in north america [8-10] and eurasia [11,12]. other tick-borne diseases, including tick-borne encephalitis, human babesiosis and granulocytic anaplasmosis, have also
In the summer of 2003, in what months did the associated stationary Rossby wave change sign and to what positive/negative values?
the associated stationary rossby wave changed sign from negative in june to positive in july, and then back to negative in august
What was reflected by the summer 2003 stationary Rossby wave sign changes?
this reflects the subseasonal fluctuations in the 2003 heat wave over europe
In which months did the most intense heat occur during the 2003 heat wave over Europe?
with the most intense heat occurring during june and early august
we also see that the summer of 2003 was characterized by largely subseasonal variations in rpc 1 (top row of fig. 7), in which the associated stationary rossby wave changed sign from negative in june to positive in july, and then back to negative in august. this reflects the subseasonal fluctuations in the 2003 heat wave over europe, with the most intense heat occurring during june and early august, with a temporary relaxation of the heat wave during july (consistent with our expectations of the impact of reof 1 on surface temperature shown in fig. 4). in contrast, the 2010 heat wave over russia is associated with a positive occurrence of reof 1 that has a significant seasonal mean component, on top of a large-amplitude positive event that occurred during july the peak of the russian heat wave. this is again consistent with our expectations of the impact of reof 1 on russian surface temperature (fig. 4).
How much knowledge do we have of how different types of flood affect human health?
we have limited knowledge of how different types of flood affect human health
Name the three categories the flood events reviewed can be divided into?
the flood events reviewed in this chapter can be divided into three broad categories - 'flash flood', 'slow onset' and 'coastal
What level of understanding of how these types affect different populations was discovered?
our understanding of how these types affect different populations is even more limited
in broad terms, we have limited knowledge of how different types of flood affect human health. our understanding of how these types affect different populations is even more limited. the flood events reviewed in this chapter can be divided into three broad categories - 'flash flood', 'slow onset' and 'coastal' - which lead to a wide range of health outcomes that are context specific. drawing on the evidence cited in this chapter we make some general comments about the health outcomes that result from each of these types, and highlight some of the key areas where there are gaps in our knowledge base.
What do these rational choice models typically assume?
that people analytically assess the desirability and likelihood of possible outcomes to arrive at a calculated decision
What do these assumptions inform?
much of economic and psychological theory
What has past research attempted to model?
how people make rational, analytical choices
"virtually all current theories of choice under risk or uncertainty are cognitive and consequentialist" (loewenstein et al., 2001, p. 267). these rational choice models typically assume that people analytically assess the desirability and likelihood of possible outcomes to arrive at a calculated decision. this assumption also underlies the expected-utility model that informs much of economic and psychological theory. past research has thus attempted to model how people make rational, analytical choices. affect (a person's good or bad, positive or negative feelings about specific objects, ideas or images) and emotions (e.g., anger, fear) are typically ignored in these models or viewed as mere epiphenomena of the decision making
How many AERONET sites are found in this study?
68 aeronet sites used in this study
What three organizations/entities are found in this work?
uk department for environment, food and rural affairs and ministry of defence integrated climate programme
Who supported S.C.?
s.c. was supported by nasa's eos, radiation sciences and interdisciplinary programs
acknowledgments. the authors are grateful to lorraine remer and two anonymous reviewers for their useful comments. we also thank the principal investigators and their staff for establishing and maintaining the 68 aeronet sites used in this study, and the teams behind the aerocom project and its participating models. the work by n.b., a.j., and j.h. was supported by the joint uk department for environment, food and rural affairs and ministry of defence integrated climate programme ga01101, cbc/2b/0417 annex c5, and the european integrated project on aerosol cloud climate and air quality interactions (eucaari). s.c. was supported by nasa's eos, radiation sciences and interdisciplinary programs.
What are the factors affect biochemical process?
plant and soil biochemical processes will be affected by increases in water and air temperatures. two key processes that determine productivity; photosynthetic carbon gain and respiration, are highly sensitive to temperature
How will photosynthesis take place in mangroves?
photosynthesis in mangroves in much of the tropics is limited by high midday leaf temperatures which drive high vapour pressure deficits between leaves and air, resulting in stomatal closure55,48,50
Explain the effect of temperature on primary production?
the effects of temperature on primary production are likely to be strongly influenced by other climate change and environmental factors that influence stomatal aperture and photosynthetic rates (eg rainfall, humidity and nutrient availability
plant and soil biochemical processes will be affected by increases in water and air temperatures. two key processes that determine productivity; photosynthetic carbon gain and respiration, are highly sensitive to temperature. photosynthesis in mangroves in much of the tropics is limited by high midday leaf temperatures which drive high vapour pressure deficits between leaves and air, resulting in stomatal closure55,48,50. in contrast, photosynthesis is limited by low temperature at southern latitudes173. increases in temperature combined with declines in humidity and rainfall could reduce productivity in some northern sites by accentuating midday depressions in photosynthesis. conversely increasing primary production would be expected at southern latitudes through increases in the length of the growing season. the effects of temperature on primary production are likely to be strongly influenced by other climate change and environmental factors that influence stomatal aperture and photosynthetic rates (eg rainfall, humidity and nutrient availability). respiration (co2 efflux) from plants and microbial communities in sediments approximately doubles with every 10oc increase in temperature. the predicted 2oc increase in temperature (lough chapter 2) could therefore increase plant and soil respiration by approximately 20 percent, resulting in reduced net carbon gain, increased methane emissions and decreases in soil carbon storage64. as mangroves and salt marshes have large carbon and nutrient stores in soils and plant biomass148,179,52 (table 9.3) increases in temperature and associated increases in respiration may have negative effects on carbon balance. these effects on carbon balance may not be matched by increases in production, which in some cases, particularly in northern regions, may be reduced (eg clark53 for terrestrial forest ecosystems). there are significant gaps in our knowledge of how increases in temperature will influence the balance between plant productivity, respiration and microbial activity in mangroves and associated wetlands of the gbr.
Why do we predict future climates?
predicting future climate is necessary for assessing the impact on and the vulnerability of environmental, economic and social systems
What does the IPCC project temperatures to rise by in the next 100 years?
according to ipcc (2007), projected global average earth surface warming at the end of the 21st century is 4.0deg
What will affect future climate?
the future climate depends largely on ghg emissions, which depend upon many uncertain factors like demography, consumption, technology, policy and attitudes towards environment
predicting future climate is necessary for assessing the impact on and the vulnerability of environmental, economic and social systems. the future climate depends largely on ghg emissions, which depend upon many uncertain factors like demography, consumption, technology, policy and attitudes towards environment. for this reason, future climate patterns are simulated using estimates of plausible future socioeconomic conditions and associated ghg emissions. complex numerical climate models representing the physical processes of the climate system are the only credible tool currently available for simulating the response of the global climate system to increasing concentration of ghgs (randal et al. 2007). according to ipcc (2007), projected global average earth surface warming at the end of the 21st century is 4.0deg likely range 2.4-6.4deg) for high emission a1fi scenario2 and 1.8deg likely range 1.1-2.9degc) for low emission b1 scenario,
Of the 31 anadromous species mentioned, how many were rated as vulnerable?
of the 31 anadromous species, 13 were rated critically vulnerable, 14 as vulnerable, 2 as having low vulnerability and none as being least vulnerable or likely to benefit
Do fishes native to California tend to fare better or fare worse in response to climate change compared to non-native families?
from a broad taxonomic perspective, fishes in families native to california tended to fare worse in response to climate change than fishes in families not native to california (tables 5 and 6
Which native anadromous families showed high vulnerability to climate change?
native anadromous species in the families salmonidae, acipenseridae, and petromyzontidae generally showed high vulnerability to climate change and high baseline vulnerabilities
from a broad taxonomic perspective, fishes in families native to california tended to fare worse in response to climate change than fishes in families not native to california (tables 5 and 6). in contrast, families dominated by alien species tended to be less affected by climate change. species in the centrarchidae, for example, were most likely (92%) to be unaffected by or benefit from climate change. significantly, the 11 ''least vulnerable'' centrarchid species are all alien species and the one species rated as highly vulnerable is native (sacramento perch, archoplites interruptus ). native anadromous species in the families salmonidae, acipenseridae, and petromyzontidae generally showed high vulnerability to climate change and high baseline vulnerabilities. of the 31 anadromous species, 13 were rated critically vulnerable, 14 as vulnerable, 2 as having low vulnerability and none as being least vulnerable or likely to benefit. table 6. climate change vulnerabilities (vc) of freshwater fishes found in california by family.
What does this paper examine?
based on unique data from a world-wide survey of agents involved in international climate policy, this paper empirically examines the importance of equity in this field
What kind of models are used in this study?
using ordinal and (uniand multivariate) binary probit models we find a strong influence of the economic or emission performance of the agents' country on the importance of equity issues and principles: (i) equity issues are seen as more important by individuals from g77 countries (including china) or from countries with less current per capita gdp and less future per capita co2 emissions
Are the agents from richer countries in favor of incorporating the polluter-pays ?
agents from richer countries are less in favor of incorporating the polluter-pays and the ability-to-pay principle in future international climate agreements
based on unique data from a world-wide survey of agents involved in international climate policy, this paper empirically examines the importance of equity in this field. our analysis shows that equity issues are considered highly important in international climate negotiations and that the polluter-pays rule (i.e., the rule of equal ratio between abatement costs and emissions) and the accompanying poor losers rule (i.e., the rule of exemption due to gdp) are the most widely accepted equity principles. using ordinal and (uniand multivariate) binary probit models we find a strong influence of the economic or emission performance of the agents' country on the importance of equity issues and principles: (i) equity issues are seen as more important by individuals from g77 countries (including china) or from countries with less current per capita gdp and less future per capita co2 emissions. (ii) agents from richer countries are less in favor of incorporating the polluter-pays and the ability-to-pay principle in future international climate agreements. (iii) the poor losers rule is more strongly supported by individuals from g77/china countries or by individuals from countries with less current per capita gdp. while most of our estimation results are consistent with pure economic self-interest or, in other words, with interests in reducing the cost burdens for the respective countries, the support for the egalitarian principle (i.e., the rule of equal per capita emissions) runs contrary to the hypothesis of economic self-interest: in a short-term time horizon of no more than 20 years no significant effect of the economic performance variables arises while in a long-term time horizon of more than 20 years agents from richer countries are more in favor of incorporating this equity principle. furthermore, the effect of the economic performance variables on the desired degree of incorporating the polluter-pays principle interestingly becomes less significant in the long-run. given the idea that equity or fairness arguments can be a basis for international climate agreements if there is a consensus of countries about what is fair, our estimation results indicate that future international climate agreements could possibly be based on a combination of the polluter-pays, the egalitarian, and the poor losers rule.
Many of the figures presented in this chapter and in others draw on what?
data collected as part of cmip5
Figure 12.1 gives a summary of what?
output was available from which model for which scenario
many of the figures presented in this chapter and in others draw on data collected as part of cmip5 (taylor et al., 2012). the project involves the worldwide coordination of esm experiments including the coordination of input forcing fields, diagnostic output and the hosting of data in a distributed archive. cmip5 has been unprecedented in terms of the number of modelling groups and models participating, the number of experiments performed and the number of diagnostics collected. the archive of model simulations began being populated by mid-2011 and continued to grow during the writing of ar5. the production of figures for this chapter draws on a fixed database of simulations and variables that was available on 15 march 2013 (the same as the cut-off date for the acceptance of the publication of papers). different figures may use different subsets of models and there are unequal numbers of models that have produced output for the different rcp scenarios. figure 12.1 gives a summary of which output was available from which model for which scenario. where multiple runs
How did global MATs differ during warm intervals of the Pliocene from global MATs during the pre-industrial era?
global mats were 2 to 3degc greater during warm intervals of the pliocene compared to the pre-industrial era
Why is the reduction in the equator to pole temperature gradient important?
this reduction in gradient is important since it is a driver of atmospheric circulation and therefore models predict a weakening in the global circulation strength for the pliocene
What does the specified altitude of the western cordillera of North America have a significant effect on?
it is also now clear that the specified altitude of the western cordillera of north america has a significant effect on downstream circulation
global mats were 2 to 3degc greater during warm intervals of the pliocene compared to the pre-industrial era. the increase in surface temperature was amplified at the high-latitudes (largely through the ice-albedo feedback mechanism and a reduction in winter sea-ice cover allowing greater heat exchange between the cold atmosphere and relatively warm arctic and southern oceans) with only minor warming (or no warming at all) predicted in the tropics. the net effect is a significant reduction in the equator to pole temperature gradient. this reduction in gradient is important since it is a driver of atmospheric circulation and therefore models predict a weakening in the global circulation strength for the pliocene (haywood et al., 2000a). whilst this relationship holds true as a global mean, regional wind strengths can still be predicted to be enhanced compared to model predictions for the pre-industrial era. this apparent paradox is displayed when examining model predictions for wintertime midlatitude westerly wind strength in the northern hemisphere, which some models predict increase in the pliocene scenario. this is due to a complex interaction of changes in north atlantic ssts and a reduction in the size of greenland ice sheet which had the effect of increasing the regional atmospheric pressure gradient (through enhancing the azores high and icelandic low) and invigorating the westerly winds (haywood et al., 2000b). it is also now clear that the specified altitude of the western cordillera of north america has a significant effect on downstream circulation and cannot be ignored in this context (hill et al., this issue).
What is the explanation for part of the inconsistency between the paleoclimate data and the IPCC projections?
part of the explanation for the inconsistency between palaeoclimate data and ipcc projections lies in the fact that existing ice sheet models are missing realistic (if any) representation of the physics of ice streams and icequakes, processes that are needed to obtain realistic nonlinear behaviour
In the absence of realistic models, which model should we trust?
in the absence of realistic models, it is better to rely on information from the earth's history
part of the explanation for the inconsistency between palaeoclimate data and ipcc projections lies in the fact that existing ice sheet models are missing realistic (if any) representation of the physics of ice streams and icequakes, processes that are needed to obtain realistic nonlinear behaviour. in the absence of realistic models, it is better to rely on information from the earth's history. that history reveals large changes of sea level on century and shorter timescales. all, or at least most, of glacial-to-interglacial sea-level rise is completed during the ca 6 kyr quarter cycle of increasing insolation forcing as additional portions of the ice sheet experience albedo flip. there is no evidence in the accurately dated terminations (i and ii) of multi-millennia lag in ice sheet response. we infer that it would be not only dangerous, but also foolhardy to follow a bau path for future ghg emissions.
What organism is critical to the functioning of the ocean's ecosystem?
zooplankton are critical to the functioning of ocean foodwebs because of their sheer abundance and vital ecosystem roles
What is the most abundant multicellular animal on the planet?
the most prominent zooplankton, the copepods, are the most abundant multicellular animals on earth, even outnumbering insects by possibly three orders of magnitude (schminke, 2007
What is the most important role of the Zooplankton?
arguably, the most important role of zooplankton is as the major grazers in ocean foodwebs, providing the principal pathway for energy from primary producers to consumers at higher trophic levels
zooplankton are critical to the functioning of ocean foodwebs because of their sheer abundance and vital ecosystem roles. the most prominent zooplankton, the copepods, are the most abundant multicellular animals on earth, even outnumbering insects by possibly three orders of magnitude (schminke, 2007). zooplankton communities are highly diverse and thus perform a variety of ecosystem functions. arguably, the most important role of zooplankton is as the major grazers in ocean foodwebs, providing the principal pathway for energy from primary producers to consumers at higher trophic levels, such as fish, marine mammals, and turtles. interestingly, the largest animals in the ocean, such as baleen whales, feed solely on zooplankton. this is in stark contrast with terrestrial ecosystems, where the largest animals, such as ungulates, are herbivores. there are no similar large herbivores in the ocean, presumably because the size of marine primary producers is too small for efficient grazing.
What is the advantage of indiginous agricultural practices on small islands?
indigenous agricultural practices in small islands have been developed to amplify particular qualities of the local environment in order to optimize food production
How have urban development or aquaculture practices implemented in small island environments impacted the ecoloigical frnctions of small island environments?
indigenous small island agricultural practices maintain the ecological functions of small island environments, unlike urban development or aquaculture, such as shrimp farming, which have destroyed the ecological functions of mangrove ecosystems in a number of small island contexts (spalding et al., 2010
What principal is a central element in small islands indigenous resilience strategies?
the principle of distributing environmental risk appears as a central element in small islands indigenous resilience strategies, whether it takes the form of the scattering of food production sites in the torres islands, or the diversity of sources and traditional preservation techniques of post-disaster foodstuffs found in tuvalu
another important body of traditional knowledge that informs climate change adaptation strategies for small islands relates to local traditional food production systems. the high degree of reliance on local agrobiodiversity by indigenous small island populations is inextricably linked to the complex traditional knowledge systems governing local food production. indigenous small island agricultural practices maintain the ecological functions of small island environments, unlike urban development or aquaculture, such as shrimp farming, which have destroyed the ecological functions of mangrove ecosystems in a number of small island contexts (spalding et al., 2010). indigenous agricultural practices in small islands have been developed to amplify particular qualities of the local environment in order to optimize food production. in rongelap atoll in the republic of the marshall islands, taro pits are dug in the ground-water lens, and are lined with successive layers of plants, organic mulch and coral rubble. they constitute an important feature of pacific atoll traditional agricultural practice of managing taro pits as 'humidity pockets' to simultaneously increase food production and reduce consumption of freshwater (bridges and mcclatchey, 2009) (see section 4.5 on the torres islands). the principle of distributing environmental risk appears as a central element in small islands indigenous resilience strategies, whether it takes the form of the scattering of food production sites in the torres islands, or the diversity of sources and traditional preservation techniques of post-disaster foodstuffs found in tuvalu. other aspects of traditional food production systems that enhance local capacity to address consequences of climate change are traditional preparation and storage of emergency foods (bourke and harwood, 2009). in the islands of tuvalu in the south pacific, these foods are employed to enhance resilience by stocking each family's food storage kaufata with enough preserved foods to last them through a cyclone or drought event (resture, see ipmpcc, 2011). in low-lying atolls of the marshall islands in the central pacific 'traditional knowledge about food storage and fermentation of local root crops not only provide [s] food security in times of scarcity, but also serve[s] to replenish the nutrient deficient soils for further agriculture' (butler and coughlan, 2011). in the pacific islands, particular traditional preservation and storage techniques have been developed for local foods that suit local environments and maximize their suitability for long-term storage. examples include scraped and dried pandanus tectorius spp.), dried giant swamp taro cyrtosperma spp.), boiled/baked, pounded and dried taro (fam. araceae ), dried coconut and dried fish (faka'osi, see ipmpcc, 2011). traditional 95
What is the value of the reduction predicted in the Northern Hemisphere mean ice extent to 2050?
which predicted a reduction of ~ 15% in the northern hemisphere mean ice extent to 2050
By how much could the summer ice cover potentially be reduced by the end of the twenty-first century?
predicts the decreases to continue such that the summer ice cover may be reduced by ~ 80% at the end of the twenty-first century
Was it the first time both spatial and seasonal variability of the ice cover and its modelled response to anthropogenic forcing analysed to 2100?
here, for the first time, both the spatial and seasonal variability of the ice cover and its modelled response to anthropogenic forcing are analysed to 2100
the variability of annual sea-ice extent has been modelled and compared to observations in previous analyses (vinnikov et al., 1999; johannessen et al., 2001), which predicted a reduction of ~ 15% in the northern hemisphere mean ice extent to 2050. however, potentially large and important spatial and seasonal aspects were not considered. here, for the first time, both the spatial and seasonal variability of the ice cover and its modelled response to anthropogenic forcing are analysed to 2100, using echam-4 and hadcm3 model predictions including different ipcc emissions scenarios. the observed versus echam4-modelled trends in northern hemisphere winter and summer sea-ice extent in the twentieth century are similar (fig. 7). our echam4-model run--using an ipcc is92 emission scenario similar to ipcc special report on emissions scenarios (sres) scenario b2--predicts the decreases to continue such that the summer ice cover may be reduced by ~ 80% at the end of the twenty-first century (fig. 7,
What is the world's first truly global manmade environmental problem?
climate change is the world's first truly global manmade environmental problem13and a firm warning that human activities can influence our physical environment on a global scale
The study between what two things has advanced in the past five years?
the study of the relationship between climate change and conflict has advanced noticeably in the past five years
In recent reviews of this literature, what is the conclusion made about environmental change?
in recent reviews of this literature, bernauer, bo"hmelt koubi (2012) and gleditsch, buhaug theisen (2011) conclude that although environmental change may under certain circumstances increase the risk of violent conflict, the existing evidence indicates that this is not generally the case
climate change is the world's first truly global manmade environmental problem13and a firm warning that human activities can influence our physical environment on a global scale. the range of possible consequences of climate change is so wide, even for the limited temperature changes foreseen in the ipcc scenarios, that it is difficult to sort out the main priorities. obviously, if a reversal of the trend towards a more peaceful world was one of these consequences, it should have a prominent place on the policy agenda. based on the research reported here, such a pessimistic view may not be warranted in the short to medium run. however, as noted by feitelson, tamimi rosenthal (2012) and salehyan (2008), framing climate change as a security issue may influence the perceptions of the actors in local and regional conflict and lead to militarized responses and thus perhaps contribute to a self-fulfilling prophecy. the study of the relationship between climate change and conflict has advanced noticeably in the past five years. with regard to how changes in precipitation may influence internal conflict, the one area where we now have a fair number of studies, the dominant view seems to be that rainfall abundance is associated with greater risks than drought and that in any case other conflict-generating factors are more important. studies of how climate change may promote interstate conflict over water resources also seem to point in the direction of a weak or a null relationship. in other areas, the number of studies is still very low, so it is premature to offer a summary. on the whole, however, it seems fair to say that so far there is not yet much evidence for climate change as an important driver of conflict. in recent reviews of this literature, bernauer, bo"hmelt koubi (2012) and gleditsch, buhaug theisen (2011) conclude that although environmental change may under certain circumstances increase the risk of violent conflict, the existing evidence indicates that this is not generally the case. while we primarily hope that the studies presented here will have an impact on scholarly research in this area, they could also have an influence on policymaking. the ipcc is currently working on its fifth assessment report, scheduled for release in 2013. for the first time, this report will have a chapter on the consequences of climate change for human security, including armed conflict (ipcc, no date). we hope that the studies reported here will contribute to a balanced assessment by the ipcc, built on the best peer-reviewed evidence.
How are non-significant paths defined?
we therefore set these non-significant paths to zero and reestimated the model
Who reported higher levels of problematic behavior?
boys reported higher levels of problem behaviors than the girls at the sixth grade
What rate of change in student perceptions of opportunities for autonomy was significantly related to what?
the rate of change in perceptions of opportunities for student autonomy was significantly related to the rate of changes in depressive symptoms, behavior problems, and self-esteem
rmsea .05, ci .04-.05, cfi .97). with the exception of the path from gender to initial status of student autonomy (as reported in the unconditional models) and behavior problems, gender, ses, and minority status did not significantly predict the variables in the model. we therefore set these non-significant paths to zero and reestimated the model. there was no significant degradement of the final model vd 2(10) 14.39, p .05) (see fig. 4 ). boys reported higher levels of problem behaviors than the girls at the sixth grade. the intercept of opportunities for student autonomy was significantly associated with the intercept of depressive symptoms and self-esteem and the intercept and slope of behavior problems. the rate of change in perceptions of opportunities for student autonomy was significantly related to the rate of changes in depressive symptoms, behavior problems, and self-esteem. as students perceived sharper declines in opportunities for student decision-making in the classroom over time, they also reported increases in depressive symptoms and behavior problems over time, and decreases in self-esteem. the association between the intercept and/ or slope of student autonomy and the intercept and/or slope of self-esteem, depressive symptoms, or behavior problems indicated medium effect sizes (see fig. 4 ). clarity and consistency in school rules the combined model for clarity and consistency in school rules fit the data well v2(43) n 1,451) 150.05,
What is important in a wastewater treatment system?
quantify the rate at which the substrate is removed
How can the rate of substrate removal be expressed?
ds dt 1 y dx dt (9.22
What is associated with the removal of the substrate?
gross biomass growth
in a wastewater treatment system, it is also important to quantify the rate at which the substrate is removed. the greater the rate, the lower is the required volume for the reactor (for a certain concentration of the substrate) or the greater is the efficiency of the process (for a certain volume of the reactor). rearranging equation 9.20, the substrate removal rate can be expressed as: ds dt 1 y dx dt (9.22) the substrate removal is associated with the gross biomass growth. according with equation 9.12, dx/dt u .x. substituting dx/dt for u .x in equation 9.22, there is: ds dt u y x (9.23) 392 basic principles of wastewater treatment or (expressing u through equation 9.13): ds dt u max. s ks s x y (9.24)
What Program was set up by the DETR?
recently, the uk climate impacts programme was set up by the detr
Why is the impact of the change of climate on the water cycle growing?
with the scientific understanding that the mankind-induced global warming of the atmosphere may have an effect on the climate of the earth (intergovernmental panel on climate change, 1996; climate change impacts review group, 1996), concern about the impact of the change of climate on the water cycle is growing amongst the population and various governmental or non-governmental authorities in the uk, such as the environment agency, the various water companies, the former department of the environment, transport and the regions (detr) and the former ministry of agriculture, fisheries and food (maff
with the scientific understanding that the mankind-induced global warming of the atmosphere may have an effect on the climate of the earth (intergovernmental panel on climate change, 1996; climate change impacts review group, 1996), concern about the impact of the change of climate on the water cycle is growing amongst the population and various governmental or non-governmental authorities in the uk, such as the environment agency, the various water companies, the former department of the environment, transport and the regions (detr) and the former ministry of agriculture, fisheries and food (maff).+the detr, for example, funded the link project, which provides the scientific community with the most up-to-date climate-change scenarios from the meteorological office hadley centre. recently, the uk climate impacts programme was set up by the detr. the first technical report presented a set of national-level climate-change
According to the author, what would be the result of a laisser-faire policy?
in the presence of climate change a laisser-faire (no action) policy will result in high ultimate damages these ultimate damages can adversely affect growth and development strategies (lecocq and shalizi 2007
What is the difference between proactive and reactive adaptation?
mitigation and proactive adaptation being incurred before damages materialize and reactive adaptation after climate change events
Why is the partial equilibrium model especially important for developing countries?
incorporating adaptation concerns increases the relevance of this framework, particularly for developing countries--including those that have limited opportunities for mitigation but face potentially significant impacts from the changing climate
to sum up, there is also at the international level a large set of rationale for public intervention to support developing countries with regard to adaptation. based on the preceding discussion, the total climate bill consists of four different components: mitigation, anticipative or proactive adaptation, coping or reactive adaptation, and ultimate damages. in the presence of climate change a laisser-faire (no action) policy will result in high ultimate damages these ultimate damages can adversely affect growth and development strategies (lecocq and shalizi 2007). policy actions associated with mitigation, proactive adaptation and reactive adaptation can reduce ultimate damages and the total climate bill-- mitigation and proactive adaptation being incurred before damages materialize and reactive adaptation after climate change events. however, there may still be some ultimate damages that cannot be removed ('remaining ultimate damages') because they are technically or economically irreversible. the partial equilibrium model developed in the following section incorporates mitigation, proactive adaptation, reactive adaptation, and ultimate damages at the global and national levels. incorporating adaptation concerns increases the relevance of this framework, particularly for developing countries--including those that have limited opportunities for mitigation but face potentially significant impacts from the changing climate. however, given the increasing interconnections of economies globally, even adaptation concerns will exhibit global ramifications. the model is used to explore optimal resource allocation between mitigation, proactive adaptation, reactive adaptation and ultimate damages. by using the benevolent planner metaphor, we explore the cooperative equilibrium among countries, and we leave issues related to cooperation and strategic behavior aside. 3. balance between mitigation, proactive adaptation and reactive adaptation in a model without uncertainty and without budget constraint in this section, we build a partial equilibrium model of climate policies including mitigation, proactive adaptation and reactive adaptation. the first-order conditions derived in this section are
Are agricultural innovation and social learning successful?
agricultural innovation and social learning, ostensibly appear successful because they enhance livelihood resilience to climate change and variability
What was found from the four regions examined ?
from the four regions examined, we find that decisions and actions on adaptation at the individual and household level is a competitive process, subtly differentiated by context, adaptive capacity, and perception of risk
What does the cooperative social networking indentified in the four regions examined ?
the cooperative social networking identified in the four regions examined spawned new possibilities for access to environmental resources, suggesting that the process of successful adaptation is a learned process
are successful adaptation processes successful for all? some adaptation actions such as agricultural innovation and social learning, ostensibly appear successful because they enhance livelihood resilience to climate change and variability. some adaptation actions may, however, lead to reduction in overall system resilience if, for example, they have spillover effects to other scales (twyman et al. 2001). in other words, responses at the general village-scale might impede responses for some at the household-scale. identifying resilience and the process of adaptation depends on the scale of investigation. from the four regions examined, we find that decisions and actions on adaptation at the individual and household level is a competitive process, subtly differentiated by context, adaptive capacity, and perception of risk. involvement in the mechanisms of local reciprocity, for example, remains difficult for the most vulnerable, and is compounded by informal social coping networks that often exclude the most vulnerable who are unable to participate. at the household level, members used different coping options simultaneously, but again there are inequalities when formal institutions are weak at the village level because exclusive informal social networks become more dominant. this was particularly the case in mantsie and nwadjahane, where small households practiced risk-adverse strategies but larger cash-rich households were able to invest in both networks of reciprocity and more specialized livelihood strategies including commercial options, thus being better able to develop social networks that offered a diversity of future options. as a consequence, they reinforced pre-existing social hierarchies, power, and entitlement inequalities. the cooperative social networking identified in the four regions examined spawned new possibilities for access to environmental resources, suggesting that the process of successful adaptation is a learned process. collective self-organization is important in this respect, but it is not sufficient for development practitioners to regard the creation of space for local empowerment as success in dealing with climate change effects, since it may not provide equitable outcomes at the household level. the processes were better facilitated where formal communication channels were structured among innovators or entrepreneurs, the community, and 'bridged' actors outside the village that can support the process;
What is the importance of Kyoto Protocol?
the implementation of the kyoto protocol, and the use of the 100-year gwp, can be used to focus on a number of issues in metric design and use. why is the protocol limited to a particular sub-set of emissions
Why is the Kyoto Protocol limited to a particular sub-set of emissions, rather than a wider set?
why is the protocol limited to a particular sub-set of emissions, rather than a wider set? this is particularly important for the transport sector where the vast majority of non-co2 climate emissions are of substances not included in the kyoto protocol, some causing warming and some causing cooling
What does the  GWP quantifies?
why is the gwp chosen, as it quantifies a somewhat characteristic of the climate effect of emissions
f of a pulse emission of a gas, integrated over 100 years, relative to the radiative forcing of a pulse emission of carbon dioxide integrated over 100 years, for some background atmospheric state (although the choice of this background state is not always made explicit - see section 5.3 ). the protocol uses values of gwp specified in the second assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change ipcc, 1996 despite the fact that later assessments have revised (and expanded) the tables reporting values for gwps. the implementation of the kyoto protocol, and the use of the 100-year gwp, can be used to focus on a number of issues in metric design and use. why is the protocol limited to a particular sub-set of emissions, rather than a wider set? this is particularly important for the transport sector where the vast majority of non-co2 climate emissions are of substances not included in the kyoto protocol, some causing warming and some causing cooling.2why is the gwp chosen, as it quantifies a somewhat characteristic of the climate effect of emissions (time-integrated radiative forcing)? could some other measure (such as temperature change, sea-level change, economic damage) be used instead? what kind of equivalence does gwp express? why is 100 years chosen as a time horizon? does the cost-effectiveness of emission controls, or a costbenefit analysis, change if some other metric or parameter choice is
which industry has been effected by climate change ?
the negative effects of climate change are already evident for many of the 25 million coffee farmers across the tropics and the 90 billion dollar (us) coffee industry
what is the best way to adapt to a rise of temperatures in coffee plantations
the best way to adapt to a rise of temperatures in coffee plantations could be via the of shade trees in sun grown plantations
what was the use of  CLIMEX model ?
using the climex model we relate present-day insect distributions to current climate and then project the fitted climatic envelopes under future scenarios a2a and b2b
the negative effects of climate change are already evident for many of the 25 million coffee farmers across the tropics and the 90 billion dollar (us) coffee industry. the coffee berry borer hypothenemus hampei ), the most important pest of coffee worldwide, has already benefited from the temperature rise in east africa: increased damage to coffee crops and expansion in its distribution range have been reported. in order to anticipate threats and prioritize management actions for h. hampei we present here, maps on future distributions of h. hampei in coffee producing areas of east africa. using the climex model we relate present-day insect distributions to current climate and then project the fitted climatic envelopes under future scenarios a2a and b2b (for hadcm3 model). in both scenarios, the situation with h. hampei is forecasted to worsen in the current coffea arabica producing areas of ethiopia, the ugandan part of the lake victoria and mt. elgon regions, mt. kenya and the kenyan side of mt. elgon, and most of rwanda and burundi. the calculated hypothetical number of generations per year of h. hampei is predicted to increase in all c. arabica -producing areas from five to ten. these outcomes will have serious implications for c. arabica production and livelihoods in east africa. we suggest that the best way to adapt to a rise of temperatures in coffee plantations could be via the of shade trees in sun grown plantations. the aims of this study are to fill knowledge gaps existing in the coffee industry, and to draft an outline for the development of an adaptation strategy package for climate change on coffee production. an in spanish is provided as s1.
What do the sand dune habitats help protect.
areas further inland from waves and wind
What reduces species richness in all 3 habitats?
major storms
What is a typical barrier island comprised of.
composed of a series of dunes, the newest and largest of which, the foredunes, are created on the more exposed ocean side where sediments are deposited
the sand dune habitats found on barrier islands and other coastal areas support a dynamic plant community while protecting areas further inland from waves and wind. foredune, interdune, and backdune habitats common to most coastal dunes have very different vegetation, likely because of the interplay among plant succession, exposure, disturbance, and resource availability. however, surprisingly few long-term data are available describing dune vegetation patterns. a nine-year census of 294 plots on st. george island, florida suggests that the major climatic drivers of vegetation patterns vary with habitat. community structure is correlated with the elevation, soil moisture, and percent soil ash of each 1 m2plot. major storms reduce species richness in all three habitats. principle coordinate analysis suggests that changes in the plant communities through time are caused by climatic events: changes in foredune vegetation are correlated with temperature and summer precipitation, interdune vegetation with storm surge, and backdune vegetation with precipitation and storm surge. we suggest that the plant communities in foredune, interdune, and backdune habitats tend to undergo succession toward particular compositions of species, with climatic disturbances pushing the communities away from these more deterministic trajectories. keywords dune habitats  succession  disturbance  coastal vegetation  hurricane  tropical storm sand beaches, dunes, and swales create a common set of coastal formations found worldwide (e.g., labuz and grunewald 2007 da silva et al. 2008 forey et al. 2008 judd et al. 2008 ). sandy coasts, especially on barrier islands, are particularly dynamic environments because of interactions among geology, climate, and vegetation (ehrenfeld 1990 stallins and parker 2003 ). a typical barrier island is composed of a series of dunes, the newest and largest of which, the foredunes, are created on the more exposed ocean side where sediments are deposited. interdune areas behind the foredunes are lower and more level because of overwash and flooding from storms. backdune areas include both dunes and swales in older, less disturbed areas, which are often slowly eroding into the back, or bay, side of the island. the factors that control dune formation are often attributed to two sets of forces: the relatively constant
India's present urban challenges make the cities more vulnerable to losses that might result from the impacts of ?
climate change
By the 2060s, it is expected that there will be approximately how many people affected?
500 million additional people
For example, reducing the vulnerability of urban populations would require what?
structural, social and economic
india's present urban challenges make the cities more vulnerable to losses that might result from the impacts of climate change. climate change risk to indian urban centres can be seen in the perspective of the expected transition in city growth. by the 2060s, it is expected that there will be approximately 500 million additional people in an estimated 7,000- 12,000 urban settlements, with related environmental transitions in water, sanitation and environmental health, air and water pollution and climate change.(23) the cities in india are already grappling with inadequate provision for water, sewerage systems, drainage and solid waste management facilities. many cities lack proper road infrastructure and efficient public transport facilities. above all, the housing scenario is grossly inadequate, with almost 50 per cent of the people living in slums in some of the metro cities. the challenge also lies in the sheer number of urban centres and the population they house. india has 4,378 urban agglomerations/cities and towns. thirty-five of these have populations of more than a million and 393 have populations of more than 100,000.(24) india contributes to 12 per cent of global population growth, and three of india's cities, namely mumbai, delhi and kolkata, are among the world's eight largest cities. the of the jawaharlal nehru national urban renewal mission (jnnurm) in 2005 has been a welcome scheme because it targets urban development and urban renewal and covers 65 important cities in india. the scheme focuses on improvements in infrastructure development, urban poverty and urban governance. there is currently no sub-component under the jnnurm scheme for climate adaptation, risk mitigation or vulnerability assessment for urban areas.(25) there is a strong need for integration of climate change risk mitigation and adaptation in the urban planning initiatives, and before that there is a strong need to view, recognize and acknowledge climate change as a major theme to be worked upon and integrated within the whole urban planning agenda and process. besides this, there are strong co-benefits to adaptation planning, because not only does it entail good urban planning but it also considers environmental sustainability. for example, reducing the vulnerability of urban populations would require structural, social and economic
Give two attributes of the building block approach as a model for international climate policy?
fundamental to a building blocks approach is the recognition that, given prevailing interests and power structures, a functioning framework for climate governance is unlikely to be constructed all at once, in a top-down fashion. the approach reinterprets international climate politics as an ongoing political process that seeks to create trust between nations and build climate governance step by step out of several regime elements
According the above text, what is the best model for international climate policy?
our argument is that construction by 'building blocks' provides a more realistic approach to creating a workable global climate regime, even though it is not without its own risks and shortfalls
In what way does the global deal and building block approaches differ?
some characteristics are shared by both the 'global deal' and 'building blocks' approaches, not least the objective of creating a strong international framework for climate action; but they also differ in important ways, primarily on the question of how to achieve this goal
if, as we argue in this article, a 'global deal' strategy yields rapidly diminishing returns in the post-copenhagen era, then the question arises of what alternatives are available to climate negotiators. there is no shortage of proposals on how to advance the goal of climate protection, and the academic and policy debate has produced dozens of more or less specific models for international climate policy (for an overview, see aldy and stavins, 2010; biermann et al., 2009; kuik et al., 2008). this is not the place to review this debate or assess specific proposals. instead, we take a wider perspective and propose a shift in thinking on how to construct the global climate governance architecture. our argument is that construction by 'building blocks' provides a more realistic approach to creating a workable global climate regime, even though it is not without its own risks and shortfalls. some characteristics are shared by both the 'global deal' and 'building blocks' approaches, not least the objective of creating a strong international framework for climate action; but they also differ in important ways, primarily on the question of how to achieve this goal. fundamental to a building blocks approach is the recognition that, given prevailing interests and power structures, a functioning framework for climate governance is unlikely to be constructed all at once, in a top-down fashion. the approach reinterprets international climate politics as an ongoing political process that seeks to create trust between nations and build climate governance step by step out of several regime elements. although dispensing with the idea of creating a comprehensive, legally binding, treaty up front, it remains committed to building an overall international framework for climate action. it is thus closer to the 'global deal' strategy than a thoroughly 'bottom-up' model of climate governance which relies solely on decentralised national and subnational climate measures. in other words, a building blocks approach combines the long-term objective of a global climate architecture with a dose of political realism in the process of creating this architecture. a number of variants of this strategy have been developed in recent years. one such version seeks to advance climate stability by disaggregating global climate governance into component parts that can be developed in a more flexible manner, involving different sets of negotiations based on varying political geometries and regime types. heller (2008), for example, proposes the 'pillarisation' of climate policy as a way of developing parallel agreements on specific, functionally defined, issues. rather than wait for a single agreement to cover all governance mechanisms, individual agreements are developed on matters such as technology innovation and diffusion, adaptation funding, deforestation and sectoral approaches for industrial sectors. to some extent, pillarisation overlaps with what advocates of a bottom-up model of climate governance propose (hulme, 2010; prins et al., 2010). critics of the un process imagine these elements of global climate governance as self-standing, decentralised initiatives. instead of investing political energies in a drawn-out and cumbersome international negotiation process, countries focus on what can be done here and now, at the national level. rather than forcing economic change towards a low-carbon future through top-down regulation, they seek to bring about such change through promoting energy efficiency, introducing alternative energy sources and inducing technological breakthroughs throughout the economy (nordhaus and shellenberger, 2010). the 2005 asia-pacific partnership on clean development and climate is one such example of a coalition of countries that engages in a range of
What is the climate model?
a mathematical description of the earth's climate system, broken into a number of grid boxes and levels in the atmosphere, ocean and land
What does the ocean component of the model have?
20 vertical levels with horizontal resolution of 1.25o latitude x1.25o longitude
What does the relative performance of GCMs depend on?
the size of the region (i.e. small regions at sub-grid scale are less likely to be well described than large regions at continental scale), on its location (i.e. the level of agreement between gcm outputs varies a lot from region to region) and on the variables being analyzed (for instance, regional precipitation is more variable and more difficult to model than regional temperature
the climate model is a mathematical description of the earth's climate system, broken into a number of grid boxes and levels in the atmosphere, ocean and land. at each of these grid points equations are solved which describe the large-scale balances of the momentum, heat and moisture. based on this, a wide range of climate models are developed as listed in table 3.1. the modelling approach and the resolution of the model vary from model to model. the relative performance of gcms can depend on the size of the region (i.e. small regions at sub-grid scale are less likely to be well described than large regions at continental scale), on its location (i.e. the level of agreement between gcm outputs varies a lot from region to region) and on the variables being analyzed (for instance, regional precipitation is more variable and more difficult to model than regional temperature) (carter, 2007). even though it is often recommended to use different gcms and emission scenarios in order to make comparison between different models, this study does not include such comparison due to limited amount of time available to complete the study. for this study the model output of hadcm3 was employed for the a2 (medium-high emissions) and b2 (medium-low emission) scenarios. hadcm3 is a coupled atmospheric-ocean gcm developed at hadley centre for climate prediction and research, uk. the atmospheric part of hadcm3 has a horizontal resolution of 2.5o latitude x 3.75o longitude, and has 19 vertical levels. the ocean component of the model has 20 vertical levels with horizontal resolution of 1.25o latitude x1.25o longitude. hadcm3 is applied in this study because the model is widely applied in many climate change impact studies and the model provides daily predictor variables which can be used for the statistical downscaling model.
Which discourse is covered similarly across all 4 papers?
ethical mitigation is thus the only discourse that features more or less evenly across all papers in terms of the proportion of their overall coverage
Which paper didn't publish any articles relating to optimism?
the times and the telegraph both published two articles conforming to optimism the guardian one, and the independent none
Which three discourses are missing from the Times and the Telegraph?
the discourses of disaster strikes and crisis are prominent in the independent and the guardian, and opportunity makes an occasional appearance, but these three discourses are completely absent from the times and the telegraph
the discourses of disaster strikes and crisis are prominent in the independent and the guardian, and opportunity makes an occasional appearance, but these three discourses are completely absent from the times and the telegraph. the times and the telegraph both published two articles conforming to optimism the guardian one, and the independent none. ethical mitigation is thus the only discourse that features more or less evenly across all papers in terms of the proportion of their overall coverage. graph 4.4 the composition of each newspaper's coverage during the past graph 4.4 the composition of each newspaper's coverage during the past decade in terms of the different discourses
State one benefit of simplified climate models
simplified climate models (including empirical models derived from complex model output) can be easily used with formal statistical approaches to quantify uncertainty in projections
Mention a limitation to the simplified climate models
but can only produce limited output: thus limited observations may be used to constrain parameters, and projections can only be made in terms of limited climate variables
simplified climate models (including empirical models derived from complex model output) can be easily used with formal statistical approaches to quantify uncertainty in projections but can only produce limited output: thus limited observations may be used to constrain parameters, and projections can only be made in terms of limited climate variables. as models become more complex, simulations and projections of more complex variables may be made, widening both the possible observational data that may be used to constrain parameters and the range of variables for which projections may be generated. but it becomes more expensive to produce ensembles and harder to implement and understand the projections.
Name the paper which helps us understand its contribution
nordhaus's paper was written helps us understand its contribution
who explained the basic science of the greenhouse effect?
fourier, tyndall and arrhenius
the context within which nordhaus's paper was written helps us understand its contribution. while the basic science of the greenhouse effect was set out in the nineteenth century by fourier, tyndall and arrhenius, discussions surrounding the possible role of humans in enhancing it - and therefore causing global warming and climate change - began in earnest in the 1970s. for at least a decade, climate change remained largely a scientific/environmentalist's issue, debated in specialist conferences and networks (agrawala, 1998). indeed, it is important to stress that the science of climate change was running years ahead of the economics (something that arguably remains the case today in understanding the impacts of climate change; stern, 2013).
In the (Thornton et el., 2006) study, what were the proxy variables used as indicators of?
in the same study (thornton et el., 2006), we assembled a set of proxy variables to use as indicators of biophysical and social vulnerability
What types of capital were the biophysical and social vulnerability indicators related to?
these related to natural and physical capital (such as crop suitability and market access), social capital (the human poverty index and a governance index), human capital (such as stunting, infant mortality, wasting, and malaria risk), and financial capital (such as the share of total gdp associated with agriculture
How was the "overall" vulnerability indicator derived?
an "overall" vulnerability indicator was derived using statistical clustering methods, which was then qualitatively combined with the climate change hotspot analysis
another way to utilise such information is to combine lgp change layers with vulnerability indicators. in the same study (thornton et el., 2006), we assembled a set of proxy variables to use as indicators of biophysical and social vulnerability. these related to natural and physical capital (such as crop suitability and market access), social capital (the human poverty index and a governance index), human capital (such as stunting, infant mortality, wasting, and malaria risk), and financial capital (such as the share of total gdp associated with agriculture). an "overall" vulnerability indicator was derived using statistical clustering methods, which was then qualitatively combined with the climate change hotspot analysis (figure 3). results showed that many
What is the steady state assumption 's discussion?
the steady state assumption is important for use of the budyko framework and we separate its discussion for the present application
What is the first formal assumption?
the first is a formal assumption that there is a negligible change in storage, here at the spatial scale of the flux tower and at the mean annual temporal scale. for nearly all of the sites used in this analysis the only water storage reservoir of consequence is field-scale soil moisture, possibly also snowpack. of greatest relevance is the difference between soil water or snow storages at the beginning compared to the end of flux tower records and these are expected to be much smaller than annual fluxes. canopy interception storage and changes in vegetation water content are expected to be negligible. because data are not available to assess the magnitude of possible changes in soil or snow storages the only way to reduce their possible effects is to average data from many years of record. flux tower records tend to be shorter than desired
the steady state assumption is important for use of the budyko framework and we separate its discussion for the present application into two conditions. the first is a formal assumption that there is a negligible change in storage, here at the spatial scale of the flux tower and at the mean annual temporal scale. for nearly all of the sites used in this analysis the only water storage reservoir of consequence is field-scale soil moisture, possibly also snowpack. of greatest relevance is the difference between soil water or snow storages at the beginning compared to the end of flux tower records and these are expected to be much smaller than annual fluxes. canopy interception storage and changes in vegetation water content are expected to be negligible. because data are not available to assess the magnitude of possible changes in soil or snow storages the only way to reduce their possible effects is to average data from many years of record. flux tower records tend to be shorter than desired, with the current database having a median of 4, mean of 4.5, and range of 1 to 16 years. the second condition, somewhat related to the steady state assumption, is that net runon and net phreatic water sources are negligible, both of which could otherwise contribute additional inputs (or outputs) influencing e but not expressed in the locally measured p these assumptions are commonly and safely adopted for catchment scale analyses, where surface runon is zero by definition and where groundwater inputs are often small and negligible, however the situation can be somewhat different for flux towers. at the flux-tower field scale, it is possible that net surface runon occurs or net subsurface lateral inputs as well, both of which could contribute to increased evapotranspiration (or conversely runoff and outputs to reduced e ). runon and subsurface flows are not measured at flux tower sites so we cannot
An alternative approach could be?
an alternative approach could be to subdivide the cmip5 ensemble in two subsets, following the location of the model top charlton-perez et al ., 2013
The differences in climate sensitivity are?
however, intermodel differences in climate sensitivity, and therefore in global surface warming, can dominate the response of subsets and so lead to erroneous interpretation mclandress et al. 2012; previdi and polvani 2012
what does Charlton-Perez et al. [2013] found?
in addition, charlton-perez et al. [2013] found that while stratospheric variability at all time scales is better simulated in the cmip5 models with tops above the stratopause (the high top models), the stratospheric mean fl ow climatology is improved in all cmip5 models with respect to cmip3
manzini et al. (c)2014. american geophysical union. all rights reserved. 2 an alternative approach could be to subdivide the cmip5 ensemble in two subsets, following the location of the model top charlton-perez et al ., 2013]. however, intermodel differences in climate sensitivity, and therefore in global surface warming, can dominate the response of subsets and so lead to erroneous interpretation mclandress et al. 2012; previdi and polvani 2012]. that this is the case for the cmip5 high and low top model subsets is shown in section 5. given that there is no theoretical evidence to implicate stratospheric processes in intermodel differences in climate sensitivity, the high/low top subdivision cannot be applied in our investigation. in addition, charlton-perez et al. [2013] found that while stratospheric variability at all time scales is better simulated in the cmip5 models with tops above the stratopause (the high top models), the stratospheric mean fl ow climatology is improved in all cmip5 models with respect to cmip3. given that the stratospheric mean state can be important for the prediction of the stratospheric change sigmond and scinocca 2010], the high/low top subdivision can therefore not suf fi ciently discriminate the performance of the cmip5 models in the stratosphere.
How can climate change solutions be implemented before it's too late?
anticipatory action, based on informed judgment, can improve the chance that appropriate technology is available when needed
How can we prevent the potential of climate change setbacks arising from high-cost technology implementations or transitions?
early deployment of rapidly improving technologies allows learning-curve cost reductions
What systems must be integrated to facilitate climate change policies?
implementing climate change policies depends on the interaction between social and economic structures and values, institutions, technologies, and established infrastructure
unlike the climate and ecological systems, inertia in human systems is not fixed; it can be changed by policies and the choices made by individuals. the capacity for implementing climate change policies depends on the interaction between social and economic structures and values, institutions, technologies, and established infrastructure. the combined system generally evolves relatively slowly. it can respond quickly under pressure, although sometimes at high cost (e.g., if capital equipment is prematurely retired). if change is slower, there may be lower costs due to technological advancement or because capital equipment value is fully depreciated. there is typically a delay of years to decades between perceiving a need to respond to a major challenge, planning, researching and developing a solution, and implementing it. anticipatory action, based on informed judgment, can improve the chance that appropriate technology is available when needed. the development and adoption of new technologies can be accelerated by technology transfer and supportive fiscal and research policies. technology replacement can be delayed by "locked-in" systems that have market advantages arising from existing institutions, services, infrastructure, and available resources. early deployment of rapidly improving technologies allows learning-curve cost reductions.
What is the name of the institute behind this manuscript?
russian institute for hydrometeorological information, obninsk, russia (manuscript received 13 april 2004, in final form 15 october 2004
What two factors indicate an increasing probability of intense precipitation events for many extratropical regions including the United States?
it was found that both the empirical evidence from the period of instrumental observations and model projections of a greenhouse-enriched atmosphere indicate an increasing probability of intense precipitation events for many extratropical regions including the united states
How many climate model simulations have these changes been linked to?
these changes have been linked to changes in intense precipitation for three transient climate model simulations, all with greenhouse gas concentrations increasing during the twentieth and twenty-first centuries and doubling in the later part of the twenty-first century
russian institute for hydrometeorological information, obninsk, russia (manuscript received 13 april 2004, in final form 15 october 2004) observed changes in intense precipitation (e.g., the frequency of very heavy precipitation or the upper 0.3% of daily precipitation events) have been analyzed for over half of the land area of the globe. these changes have been linked to changes in intense precipitation for three transient climate model simulations, all with greenhouse gas concentrations increasing during the twentieth and twenty-first centuries and doubling in the later part of the twenty-first century. it was found that both the empirical evidence from the period of instrumental observations and model projections of a greenhouse-enriched atmosphere indicate an increasing probability of intense precipitation events for many extratropical regions including the united states. although there can be ambiguity as to the impact of more frequent heavy precipitation events, the thresholds of the definitions of these events were raised here, such that they are likely to be disruptive. unfortunately, reliable assertions of very heavy and extreme precipitation changes are possible only for regions with dense networks due to the small radius of correlation for many intense precipitation events.
Has the notion of retreating from coastal areas been tested?
notion of retreat from the coastline as sea level rises-without systematic testing of the actual feasibility (economic, technological, environmental, institutional, organizational, social, political, or cultural) in specific contexts
What requirements are made of the different adaptation measures?
decision-makers also require cost-benefit or cost-effectiveness analyses of different adaptation measures, offering insights on one important, if insufficient criterion of feasibility
as discussed above, research on adaptation to date has focused predominantly on adaptive capacity-on what it is, which factors contribute to it,andhow it could be limited in specific contexts. much less researchhasfocused onspecific ways to build it when it is lacking and to link it to broader sustainable development goals. even less is known about society's ability to use its adaptive capacity in practical reality (e.g., pielke et al., 2007; moser, 2009b ). many adaptation strategies proposed to date have been quite general-take the notion of retreat from the coastline as sea level rises-without systematic testing of the actual feasibility (economic, technological, environmental, institutional, organizational, social, political, or cultural) in specific contexts. such assessments of adaptation barriers may not only give a more realistic sense of real-world, context-specific adaptive capacity, butalso lead to a more realistic set of adaptation strategies that can overcome existing constraints. they would shed light on the role of non-climate drivers in adaptation decision-making (e.g., eriksen o'brien, 2007 ). decision-makers also require cost-benefit or cost-effectiveness analyses of different adaptation measures, offering insights on one important, if insufficient criterion of feasibility.
What was the second observation?
our second, related observation is that we found little evidence that the storylines have clearly-defined groups of actors - discourse coalitions - associated with them
What can be said about the emergence of distinct networks or coalitions tied to particular storylines?
but in our analysis there were few identifiable signs of the emergence of distinct networks or coalitions tied to particular storylines (with the exception perhaps of the demand reduction storyline being associated with environmental groups (see for example cat, 1995; foe, 2006b, though even this is not an exclusive association). rather, multiple groups of actors are voicing a set of plural and complementary storylines. thus in the absence 19 19 of specific coalitions promoting them, the storylines about energy and climate change are not obviously in conflict at the broad level of national policy, though each has a different emphasis
Are storylines dependent of particular coalitions? Why?
the multiplicity of actors using the climate change storylines suggests that storylines are independent of - or at least can become detached from - particular coalitions, and raises interesting questions about how such storylines emerge and are maintained
our second, related observation is that we found little evidence that the storylines have clearly-defined groups of actors - discourse coalitions - associated with them. hajer describes storylines as: "... the essential discursive cement that creates communicative networks among actors with different or at best overlapping perceptions and understandings." (hajer, 1995: 63). but in our analysis there were few identifiable signs of the emergence of distinct networks or coalitions tied to particular storylines (with the exception perhaps of the demand reduction storyline being associated with environmental groups (see for example cat, 1995; foe, 2006b, though even this is not an exclusive association). rather, multiple groups of actors are voicing a set of plural and complementary storylines. thus in the absence 19 19 of specific coalitions promoting them, the storylines about energy and climate change are not obviously in conflict at the broad level of national policy, though each has a different emphasis. moreover, there is no clear sign of progression towards any one storyline, or a narrower definition of the problem, becoming dominant. this is not what we might expect from discourse coalition theory, in which the process of policy change involves a struggle for hegemony, and over time a policy problem gradually becomes more narrowly defined as one coalition and its storyline comes to dominate the policy process (dryzek, 1997; hajer, 1995). indeed, this narrowing of problem definition is seen as an essential step to effective policy making (hajer, 1995). the multiplicity of actors using the climate change storylines suggests that storylines are independent of - or at least can become detached from - particular coalitions, and raises interesting questions about how such storylines emerge and are maintained. there are significant implications for ways in which policy change can be conceived. if conflict and fractious debate is relatively scarce within the newly-converged energy and climate change policy sector, does this suggest that significant change is now taking place in different arenas or sites? in response to these two issues -the origin of storylines, and the location of radical policy change - we propose an alternative framework intended to capture the nature of policy dynamics in situations of convergence. for this we look to theories from outside the conventional policy literature.
What is a focal tooic in PRUDENCE model simulations ?
future climate change will affect the frequency and magnitude of such extreme events through an intensified hydrological cycle (stocker et al. 2001
What have been limtations to this model ?
the lack of appropriate spatial resolution (and a consequent smearing out of the character of sub-grid-scale events), the lack of sufficiently long integrations (which drastically reduces the statistical significance of projections), and the lack of co-ordination between different modelling groups (which led to unresolved differences between different studies
How has prudence addressed these aspects ?
critical aspects of uncertainty, and the application of impact models and impact assessment methodologies to provide a link to the needs of society and the economy
it is anticipated that future climate change will affect the frequency and magnitude of such extreme events through an intensified hydrological cycle (stocker et al. 2001). this has been a focal topic in the prudence model simulations. some major limitations to model-based 8 8 studies of these phenomena in the past have been the lack of appropriate spatial resolution (and a consequent smearing out of the character of sub-grid-scale events), the lack of sufficiently long integrations (which drastically reduces the statistical significance of projections), and the lack of co-ordination between different modelling groups (which led to unresolved differences between different studies). these three issues have all been thoroughly addressed in prudence, using state-of-the-art climate models at a variety of (high) resolutions, a co-ordinated project layout that also addresses critical aspects of uncertainty, and the application of impact models and impact assessment methodologies to provide a link to the needs of society and the economy. furthermore, model-based results generated in prudence have already provided scientific background information in the aftermath of some of the above-mentioned extreme weather events e.g. christensen and christensen, 2003; schar et al. 2004).
What important impact future changes in the stratospheric circulation will have?
future changes in the stratospheric circulation could have an important impact on northern winter tropospheric climate change, given that sea level pressure (slp) responds not only to tropospheric circulation variations but also to vertically coherent variations in troposphere-stratosphere circulation
What is found for the majority of CMIP5 models in the stratosphere at high altitudes?
in the stratosphere at high latitudes, an easterly change in zonally averaged zonal wind is found for the majority of the cmip5 models, under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 scenario
What is used to quantify fhe impact of tropical upper troposphere warming?
by using linear regression, we quantify the impact of tropical upper troposphere warming, polar ampli fi cation, and the stratospheric wind change on slp
future changes in the stratospheric circulation could have an important impact on northern winter tropospheric climate change, given that sea level pressure (slp) responds not only to tropospheric circulation variations but also to vertically coherent variations in troposphere-stratosphere circulation. here we assess northern winter stratospheric change and its potential to in fl uence surface climate change in the coupled model intercomparison project-phase 5 (cmip5) multimodel ensemble. in the stratosphere at high latitudes, an easterly change in zonally averaged zonal wind is found for the majority of the cmip5 models, under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 scenario. comparable results are also found in the 1% co2 increase per year projections, indicating that the stratospheric easterly change is common feature in future climate projections. this stratospheric wind change, however, shows a signi fi cant spread among the models. by using linear regression, we quantify the impact of tropical upper troposphere warming, polar ampli fi cation, and the stratospheric wind change on slp. we fi nd that the intermodel spread in stratospheric wind change contributes substantially to the intermodel spread in arctic slp change. the role of the stratosphere in determining part of the spread in slp change is supported by the fact that the slp change lags the stratospheric zonally averaged wind change. taken together, these fi ndings provide further support for the importance of simulating the coupling between the stratosphere and the troposphere, to narrow the uncertainty in the future projection of tropospheric circulation changes.
How can we halt biodiversity loss?
halting biodiversity loss in the long term requires careful formulation of conservation and management strategies that best retain biodiversity under climate change
For systematic conservation planning what should our focus be?
our focus here is on planning for persistence of biological diversity at a regional or global level. this necessitates modelling approaches capable of predicting not only changes in species, or assemblages of species
How does climate change affect biodiversity?
climate change represents a major threat to biodiversity, especially when coupled with other global change drivers, such as habitat destruction, fragmentation and exotic species invasion
climate change represents a major threat to biodiversity, especially when coupled with other global change drivers, such as habitat destruction, fragmentation and exotic species invasion (ehrlich pringle, 2008). halting biodiversity loss in the long term requires careful formulation of conservation and management strategies that best retain biodiversity under climate change. identifying the most robust and effective conservation strategies for the future therefore depends strongly on reliable and spatially explicit predictions of the likely effects of climate change on biodiversity. to address this need, considerable scientific attention has been given to developing quantitative approaches to predict biodiversity outcomes under spatially explicit scenarios of global change (botkin et al. 2007). such predictions can provide valuable information for planning configurations of retained habitat (e.g. through protection and restoration) that best allow biodiversity to persist in the face of climate change. in keeping with well-established principles of systematic conservation planning (margules pressey, 2000), our focus here is on planning for persistence of biological diversity at a regional or global level. this necessitates modelling approaches capable of predicting not only changes in species, or assemblages of species,
What does this section summerise?
this section summarises the main requirements for urban (domestic nondomestic) wastewater treatment plants in europe
What does this directive specify?
this directive specifies the minimum removal efficiencies and limit concentrations of bod5, cod, ss, n and p
When does the values for N and P apply?
the values for n and p apply only when the discharge is to sensitive water bodies
this section summarises the main requirements for urban (domestic nondomestic) wastewater treatment plants in europe - council directive 91/271/eec, 21/05/1991 (council of the european communities, 1991). this directive specifies the minimum removal efficiencies and limit concentrations of bod5, cod, ss, n and p. note that the values for n and p apply only when the discharge is to sensitive water bodies. the criteria for classifying a sensitive water body are presented in the legislation, but these are typically lakes, reservoirs, estuaries, bays and coastal waters, subject to certain conditions. the values presented in table 3.18 for concentration or removal efficiency must apply. 164 to wastewater characteristics, treatment and disposal
What do most ecological research emphasize?
to date, most ecological research emphasizes the limiting effects of temperature and water balance
What information does the available evidence demonstrate?
however, the available evidence serves to illustrate that climate may affect population dynamics through diverse and sometimes unexpected paths
there is a limited but rapidly growing body of empirical evidence demonstrating that current climate constrains the reproduction and regeneration of relict populations. to date, most ecological research emphasizes the limiting effects of temperature and water balance (but see pulido et al. 2008 for solar radiation). both components are intrinsically linked and their respective influence is difficult to disentangle under field conditions. moreover, the different drivers of recent climate change (warming, precipitation changes, co2 increase, etc.) can influence organisms directly and indirectly through their effects on biotic interactions figure 2 ). this complexity represents a challenge for any study that attempts to reveal causal links between specific climatic trends and resulting population dynamics. unfortunately, empirical research on relicts currently shows a considerable bias toward certain study systems. a majority of studies deal either with plants (mostly woody species) or, to a lesser extent, insects (especially butterflies). curiously, the latter group stands out for its rapid and pronounced response to changes in climate (franco et al. 2006), whereas the former group is characterized by a great resilience (which does not preclude rapid microevolutionary changes) (petit hampe 2006). in addition, a large fraction of studies have been performed in mountain ranges located at midto low-temperate latitudes, commonly in regions with dry climate such as the mediterranean basin or southwestern north america. markedly fewer investigations have been conducted on species inhabiting mires or arctic-alpine habitats, usually located at higher latitudes. this caveat makes it difficult to derive general trends. however, the available evidence serves to illustrate that climate may affect population dynamics through diverse and sometimes unexpected paths. in the following, we briefly review how climate constrains the dynamics of relict populations, either directly or through its influence on biotic interactions.
Is this study enough to know the effects?
more detailed studies are needed to improve our understanding about its effects
What made it more complex and variable?
the complicated landforms and geomorphologic features made the sfg characteristics more complex and variable even within very short distances
What can help us improve?
regional climate models as well as expanding observational foundation could improve our ability to understand such uncertainties
more detailed studies are needed to improve our understanding about its effects. the complicated landforms and geomorphologic features made the sfg characteristics more complex and variable even within very short distances. the sparsely distributed meteorological stations, especially over the wide range areas with elevation exceeding 4500 m asl and in the southwestern qtp, enhance the difficulties of understanding such variability. regional climate models as well as expanding observational foundation could improve our ability to understand such uncertainties. acknowledgements this study was supported by cas key innovative projects grants kzcx1-10-06, kzcx2-301, chinese national science foundation (49971022) and innovative project of cold and arid regions environmental and engineering research institute. special thanks are due to dr. baisheng ye for all his help. the authors thank dr. yuri shur, dr. yulia boike and other anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments and suggestions. the data were provided by chinese national climatic and meteorological center. references
what do the results of the delta approach provide?
results from the delta approach provide an overall comparison of how the assessment of hydrological change is affected by rcm configurations and scenarios
what does the scale approach provide?
the scaling approach provides results on extremes that are more consistent with the rcms, however it is best used with models that provide good representation of regional seasonality
what do both methods do?
both of these methods make considerable modification to climate model results and implicitly assume that the systematic biases for the present climate will be the same for the future climate
results from the delta approach provide an overall comparison of how the assessment of hydrological change is affected by rcm configurations and scenarios. it is a robust method making it possible to use output from climate models even if they do not produce a present climate with similar statistics to observations. the scaling approach provides results on extremes that are more consistent with the rcms, however it is best used with models that provide good representation of regional seasonality. both of these methods make considerable modification to climate model results and implicitly assume that the systematic biases for the present climate will be the same for the future climate. advantages and shortcomings of the two approaches are detailed below.
How long does the observable surface record of Mars' geological history span?
the observable surface record of mars' geological history spans 4 billion years (gyr
What do the ancient martian surfaces indicate?
the ancient martian surfaces contain geological features that indicate that the early climate was different
How old are the oldest, most heavily cratered surfaces?
the oldest, most heavily cratered surfaces are thought to be about 4.0 gyr old
the observable surface record of mars' geological history spans 4 billion years (gyr). the oldest, most heavily cratered surfaces are thought to be about 4.0 gyr old, and the youngest are possibly less than 100 million years (myr) old8-11. evidence pertaining to the ancient climate is inferred from processes that shaped the surface during the noachian epoch, which ended when the cratering rate declined dramatically between 3.8 and 3.5 gyr ago9,11. (fig. 2 summarizes the history and timing of processes involved in martian climate evolution.) although atmospheric gas undoubtedly was present before 4.0 gyr, and was removed in part from the atmosphere by various processes12, we focus here on processes that post-dated the onset of the visible geological record. the ancient martian surfaces contain geological features that indicate that the early climate was different. dendritic networks of valleys seem similar to those formed by runoff of surface water on the earth, although the areal density of tributaries is typically lower13. there is debate about the relative roles of surface runoff, sapping by release of subsurface water, and discharge of water from hydrothermal systems in forming the valleys14-16. however, there is general agreement that water must have flowed at the surface in order to form these features and that their dendritic character and
Which lowland stations in JJA particularly indicate an increase in precipitation?
in jja most stations indicate an increase in precipitation, in particular the lowland stations to the east of the andes and the altiplano region of northern bolivia and southern peru (figure 3c
Are individual station trends mostly significant in the case of a coherent regional signal?
even in the case of a coherent regional signal however, individual station trends are mostly insignificant
Why are stations located very close to one another not truly independent records?
furthermore one needs to take into account that several stations are located very close to one another and are thus not truly independent records, because they capture the same local climatic signal
peru/bolivia border most stations indicate a precipitation decrease for the annual total and during the main rainy season djf (figure 3b). in jja most stations indicate an increase in precipitation, in particular the lowland stations to the east of the andes and the altiplano region of northern bolivia and southern peru (figure 3c). even in the case of a coherent regional signal however, individual station trends are mostly insignificant. of the 42 stations analyzed only 5 (2) show a significant increase (decrease) in the annual precipitation amount. furthermore one needs to take into account that several stations are located very close to one another and are thus not truly independent records, because they capture the same local climatic signal.
Which element represents the main part of nutrient content in plants?
significance of nutrient resorption for winter deciduous plants and ecosystems: the case of n the nutrient content of green foliage represents a large fraction of the total nutrient content in plants
What happens when there are changes in the flux of resorbed nutrients?
changes in the flux of resorbed nutrients are accompanied by symmetrical changes in the flux of nutrients returned to the soil with the fallen leaves
How do perennial plants retain nutrients?
perennial plants contain a pool of mobilizable n that in deciduous plants is alternatively located in leaves or woody tissues following the seasonal cycle (fig. 2) and that in evergreens is mobilized
significance of nutrient resorption for winter deciduous plants and ecosystems: the case of n the nutrient content of green foliage represents a large fraction of the total nutrient content in plants. the resorption of nutrients implies important annual fluxes, e.g. 47 kg n ha-1 (about 56% of the total n) in a stand of quercus serrata (migita et al. 2007) or 7-27 kg n ha-1, 0.5-1.8 kg p ha-1, and 1.85.3 kg k ha-1 in several coppices of q. pyrenaica (gallardo et al. 1999). changes in the flux of resorbed nutrients are accompanied by symmetrical changes in the flux of nutrients returned to the soil with the fallen leaves. perennial plants contain a pool of mobilizable n that in deciduous plants is alternatively located in leaves or woody tissues following the seasonal cycle (fig. 2) and that in evergreens is mobilized
What is likely one of the most important cases of policy diffusion?
likely one of the most important cases of policy diffusion, in the short to medium term, can be found in the diffusion of the principles and means for developing of municipal and state emissions inventories and registries
Who is joining efforts to fight climate change?
s. conference of mayors, the pew center on global climate change, and the ngo coalition clean air-cool planet
What is the importance of policy innovations?
as policy innovations accrue ideas and experience over time, important lessons are learned which are likely to shape future policy, including at the federal level
u.s. conference of mayors, the pew center on global climate change, and the ngo coalition clean air-cool planet. joint efforts among regional groups of states moreover explicitly seek to encourage learning between states. likely one of the most important cases of policy diffusion, in the short to medium term, can be found in the diffusion of the principles and means for developing of municipal and state emissions inventories and registries. in addition, the creation of state emissions inventories and registries are underpinning the rggi initiative of developing a regional trading scheme. as policy innovations accrue ideas and experience over time, important lessons are learned which are likely to shape future policy, including at the federal level.
What does Rossby waves conserve?
although rossby waves conserve angular phase velocity
Which phase-velocity grid was used?
a phase-velocity grid of resolution d c 5 1 m s2 1was used
What does the wavenumber-frequency analysis requires?
note that the wavenumber-frequency analysis requires daily 3d data
c v k d v 5 c c k dc where c 5 v a cos u k a is the earth's radius, and u is latitude. although rossby waves conserve angular phase velocity rather than regular phase velocity during propagation through a zonally homogeneous flow on the sphere, as in randel and held (1991) we plot regular phase velocity to allow a direct comparison with the zonal-mean zonal wind. a phase-velocity grid of resolution d c 5 1 m s2 1was used. cospectra for each year were averaged over the appropriate time periods and over the three simulations. the plotted cospectral densities in c k space have been divided by d c and therefore have units of the physical quantities. we have checked that the integrated epfd across all phase speeds closely matches the transient epfd computed directly from the physical fields. note that the wavenumber-frequency analysis requires daily 3d data, which are not available on the ccmval archive. thus, it is not possible to extend this analysis to other models using the existing archive.
What is the point in noting overlapping authorship between the present manuscript and the several studies mentioned?
my point in noting overlapping authorship between the present manuscript and the several studies mentioned is to stress that the authors of the present manuscript should be well aware of these alternative approaches to determining the fate of excess carbon dioxide in the atmosphere
What is the concluding statement of the article?
this consideration has implications for example even on the concluding statement of the article (page 19829, line 17): independent from the choice of emission metric, the long life time of the anthropogenic co2
What obligation do the authors of the article have to the reader?
hence if the present article is to be an assessment of the state of understanding of this important scientific issue rather than a report about an exercise with a fairly constrained set of models, the authors have an obligation to broaden the scope of the models examined or alternatively to inform the reader that they have deliberately restricted the set of models and to detail the consequences of that restriction with respect to the inferences that can be drawn from the study
my point in noting overlapping authorship between the present manuscript and the several studies mentioned is to stress that the authors of the present manuscript should be well aware of these alternative approaches to determining the fate of excess carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. hence if the present article is to be an assessment of the state of understanding of this important scientific issue rather than a report about an exercise with a fairly constrained set of models, the authors have an obligation to broaden the scope of the models examined or alternatively to inform the reader that they have deliberately restricted the set of models and to detail the consequences of that restriction with respect to the inferences that can be drawn from the study. this consideration has implications for example even on the concluding statement of the article (page 19829, line 17): independent from the choice of emission metric, the long life time of the anthropogenic co2
When an improved understanding of pollutant emissions from fires and their impact on atmospheric composition has been acquired?
almost 30 years after the pioneering work by crutzen et al.that recognized the impact of biomass burning on global atmospheric chemistry, an improved understanding of pollutant emissions from fires and their impact on atmospheric composition has been acquired
Where most of the effort has been focus on?
significant effort has been focused within the context of international field campaigns sponsored by the international global atmospheric chemistry (igac) project, the international geospherebiosphere project (igbp) and the international commission of atmospheric chemistry and global pollution
What does (IGAC) stands for?
international global atmospheric chemistry
almost 30 years after the pioneering work by crutzen et al.that recognized the impact of biomass burning on global atmospheric chemistry, an improved understanding of pollutant emissions from fires and their impact on atmospheric composition has been acquired. a number of research coordination activities contribute to the understanding of biomass burning, including the global fire monitoring center and the european commission via the forest fire information system, both of which facilitate monitoring and assessment of biomass burning activity. significant effort has been focused within the context of international field campaigns sponsored by the international global atmospheric chemistry (igac) project, the international geospherebiosphere project (igbp) and the international commission of atmospheric chemistry and global pollution. during the 1990s a series of international and interdisciplinary research campaigns on biomass burning in tropical, subtropical, and boreal biomes was conducted under the igbp-igac umbrella. the biomass burning experiment resulted in a deeper understanding of the production of chemically and radiatively important gases and aerosol species from vegetation fires to the global atmosphere and their effect on regional and global chemistry. because of the diversity of scientific approaches to the biomass burning research, including recent advances in remote sensing products, advances in fire and atmospheric modeling, advances in forecasting systems used for emergency response, and the inclusion of the interaction of fire regimes with vegetation in some climate models, the biomass burning experiment as a large-scale international and almost global collaborative effort has subsequently been replaced by numerous small-scale projects and campaigns.
What is biological productivity in the ocean?
the effects of changing ice and atmospheric conditions on the upwelling of deep nutrient - laden waters and biological productivity in the coastal beaufort sea were quantified using a unique combination of in situ and remote - sensing approaches
What is biological productivity climate in geopolitics?
citation: tremblay, j. - e., et al. (2011), climate forcing multiplies biological productivity in the coastal arctic ocean, geophys. res. lett. 38 l18604, doi:10.1029/2011gl048825
the effects of changing ice and atmospheric conditions on the upwelling of deep nutrient - laden waters and biological productivity in the coastal beaufort sea were quantified using a unique combination of in situ and remote - sensing approaches. repeated instances of ice ablation and upwelling during fall 2007 and summer 2008 multiplied the production of ice algae, phytoplankton, zooplankton and benthos by 2 to 6 fold. strong wind forcing failed to induce upward shifts in the biological productivity of stratified waters off the shelf. citation: tremblay, j. - e., et al. (2011), climate forcing multiplies biological productivity in the coastal arctic ocean, geophys. res. lett. 38 l18604, doi:10.1029/2011gl048825.
How does Schneider's system work?
1, "poor," and 5, "excellent
our sample also included establishments from two different brands. a higher star rating indicates that a hotel brand competes to a larger extent on service quality (sun, aryee, law, 2007) and is likely to be related to customer service satisfaction. in addition, some of the establishments catered predominantly towards a business clientele, while others served mostly leisure travelers. business and leisure travelers can be expected to differ in their perceptions of service quality (jones, 2002). therefore, we added controls for hotel brand (3star vs. 4-star) and hotel type (business hotel vs. leisure hotel). in order to assess the effects of initiative climate on individual proactive service performance beyond the effects of general service climate, we controlled for service climate as measured with schneider et al.'s (1998) well-established 7-item general service climate scale. sample items include "how would you rate the recognition and rewards employees receive for the delivery of superior work and service in your area?" and "how would you rate the leadership shown by management in your area in supporting the service quality effort?" we used the response format suggested by schneider et al. (1998) which was anchored at 1, "poor," and 5, "excellent" a .87). in addition, with a view of assessing the unique contribution of aggregated proactive customer service performance on customer satisfaction, we controlled for general service performance at the establishment level as assessed with griffin et al.'s (2007) 3-item task proficiency scale. an introductory paragraph before the measure asked employees to "focus on the behavior of employees in general." we adapted the wording of the original measure to focus on employees in the plural. items include "carry out the core parts of their job well", "complete their core tasks well using the standard procedures", and "ensure their tasks were completed properly" a .87). results initiative climate, self-efficacy and pcsp 22
what does the IFRIC-3 launch and subsequent withdrawal (Stage One) highlight?
the ifric-3 launch and subsequent withdrawal (stage one) highlights how there is likely to be conflict in these technical accounting discussions when corporations feel strongly about an issue, typically when it affects their profits
What is less evident  with the relaunch of the IASB-FASB Emission Trading Schemes?
project conflict seems less evident
What are accountants at major EU ETS companies ready for?
r eu ets companies have suggested a readiness for clear guidance from the standard setters (along the lines of ifric-3) because of a strong desire to make carbon accounting easier (reducing choice, thereby eliminating the current necessity of following a range of different national, international and corporate guidelines), and so that companies can be fairly compared with their competitors, creating a level playing field
the ifric-3 launch and subsequent withdrawal (stage one) highlights how there is likely to be conflict in these technical accounting discussions when corporations feel strongly about an issue, typically when it affects their profits. it is interesting that with the relaunch of the iasb-fasb emission trading schemes project conflict seems less evident. indeed, recent interviews with accountants at major eu ets companies have suggested a readiness for clear guidance from the standard setters (along the lines of ifric-3) because of a strong desire to make carbon accounting easier (reducing choice, thereby eliminating the current necessity of following a range of different national, international and corporate guidelines), and so that companies can be fairly compared with their competitors, creating a level playing field.
WHAT DOES THE GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE PROVIDE?
global climate change provides an opportunity for greater integration of approaches within psychology as well as transdisciplinary cooperation with the other social sciences and the physical sciences
WHAT ARE THE SPECIAL ISSUES OF THIS ARTICLE?
this article and this special issue are intended to help psychologists become more knowledgeable about how their disciplinary knowledge and expertise can inform collaborative discussions, research, and policy initiatives related to climate change adaptation and mitigation
FUNCTION OF PSYCHOLOGY IN CLIMATE CHANGE?
psychology has already made notable contributions in addressing climate change, but it can do much more, particularly in collaboration with others from diverse fields of interest and other countries
global climate change provides an opportunity for greater integration of approaches within psychology as well as transdisciplinary cooperation with the other social sciences and the physical sciences. such integration and collaboration typically most often occur around a common goal or problem. global climate change presents a shared problem and daunting challenges, but these alone do not ensure cooperation among disciplines. this article and this special issue are intended to help psychologists become more knowledgeable about how their disciplinary knowledge and expertise can inform collaborative discussions, research, and policy initiatives related to climate change adaptation and mitigation. more intensive engagement with nonpsychologists will likely highlight the urgency, challenges, and importance of global climate change as a problem for psychological research; encourage us to teach our students about the psychological aspects of climate change and human-environment transactions; and most important, help us find ways to make our contributions more useful. psychology has already made notable contributions in addressing climate change, but it can do much more, particularly in collaboration with others from diverse fields of interest and other countries.
What are the long-term changes in Australian vegetation attributed to?
long-term changes in australian vegetation can be mostly attributed to alterations in fire regimes, clearing and grazing, but some trends, such as encroachment of rainforest into eucalypt woodlands, and establishment of trees in subalpine meadows probably have a climatic component
Does temperature have any factor in these changes in vegetation and species?
shifts in species distributions toward the south (bats, birds), upward in elevation (alpine mammals) or along changing rainfall contours (birds, semiarid reptiles), have recently been documented and offer circumstantial evidence that temperature and rainfall trends are already affecting geographic ranges
Is there any monitoring on climate change in Australia?
australia lacks the long-term datasets and tradition of phenological monitoring that have allowed the detection of climate-change-related trends in the northern hemisphere
c of warming. australia lacks the long-term datasets and tradition of phenological monitoring that have allowed the detection of climate-change-related trends in the northern hemisphere. long-term changes in australian vegetation can be mostly attributed to alterations in fire regimes, clearing and grazing, but some trends, such as encroachment of rainforest into eucalypt woodlands, and establishment of trees in subalpine meadows probably have a climatic component. shifts in species distributions toward the south (bats, birds), upward in elevation (alpine mammals) or along changing rainfall contours (birds, semiarid reptiles), have recently been documented and offer circumstantial evidence that temperature and rainfall trends are already affecting geographic ranges. future research directions suggested include giving more emphasis to the study of climatic impacts and understanding the factors that control species distributions, incorporating the effects of elevated co
emperature increases at the higher end of ?
the distribution reduce hours worked in industries with high exposure to climate and reduce time allocated to outdoor leisure for the nonemployed
High temperatures causes?
discomfort, fatigue, and even cognitive impairment
time allocated to labor is?
nonresponsive to temperature
columbia university and the national bureau of economic research we estimate the impacts of temperature on time allocation by exploiting plausibly exogenous variation in temperature over time within counties. temperature increases at the higher end of the distribution reduce hours worked in industries with high exposure to climate and reduce time allocated to outdoor leisure for the nonemployed, with this time reallocated to indoor leisure. at the lower end of the distribution, time allocated to labor is nonresponsive to temperature increases, but outdoor leisure increases while indoor leisure decreases as temperature warms. we also find suggestive evidence of short-run adaptation to higher temperatures through temporal substitutions and acclimatization. i. high temperatures cause discomfort, fatigue, and even cognitive impairment depending on the composition of one's activities and the degree to which they are exposed to the elements.1as a result, weather may play an
which studies that systematically trace the evolution of risk amplification/attenuation and ripple effects within sectors or regions would be useful?
both historical analyses and future-oriented scenario studies that systematically trace the evolution of risk amplification/attenuation and ripple effects within sectors or regions would be useful
to date, almost no studies exist anywhere of the higher-order impacts of climate change, though historical experience with extreme events (climatic or otherwise) suggests they may be at least as important and sometimes longer lasting than the initial incident (e.g., pidgeon, kasperson, slovic, 2003 ). both historical analyses and future-oriented scenario studies that systematically trace the evolution of risk amplification/attenuation and ripple effects within sectors or regions would be useful. similarly, studies that examine the impacts of climate change experienced outside of a particular region, but which are likely to affect another region of interest through market-based mechanisms, transportation, energy or information infrastructure or other linkages are largely missing but needed.
Where do the time series of temperatures show the warming trends are larger?
the time series of temperatures show that warming trends are larger in the eta-hadgem2-es than in the eta-miroc5 simulations
Where is the major warming area located?
major warming area is located in the central part of brazil
The future changes are shown in timeslices of how many years?
the future changes are shown in timeslices of 30 years
four sets of downscaling simulations based on the eta regional climate model forced by two global climate models, the hadgem2-es and the miroc5, and two rcp scenarios--8.5 and 4.5, have been carried out. the objective of this work is to assess the climate change over south america based on the eta simulations. the future changes are shown in timeslices of 30 years: 2011-2040; 2041-2070 and 2071-2100. the climate change response of the eta simulations nested in hadgem2-es is larger than the eta nested in miroc5. major warming area is located in the central part of brazil. in austral summer, the reduction of precipitation in the central part and the increase in the southeastern part of the continent are common changes in these simulations, while the etahadgem2-es intensifies the decrease of precipitation in central brazil, the eta-miroc5 expands the area of increase of precipitation in southern brazil toward the end of the century. in austral winter, precipitation decrease is found in the northern part of south america and in most of central america, whereas the reduction in southeastern south america is limited to near coastal region. the time series of temperatures show that warming trends are larger in the eta-hadgem2-es than in the eta-miroc5 simulations. heavier precipitation rates are projected in the central-south of brazil toward the end of the century. increase in the length of consecutive dry days (cdd) in northeast of brazil and the decrease of consecutive wet days (cwd) in the amazon region are common features in these simulations.
Apart from the totals, what other issue reflect?
so what is best? it should be borne in mind that just looking at the totals does not reflect other issues such as social justice
What will the ' World Markets ' scenarios do?
the ' world markets ' scenarios will make some people very rich, but it will produce a larger number of people suffering from flood or storm damage
What can the insurance companies do if they recognize an area has a particular flood problem and nothing is being done about it?
if they recognize an area has a particular flood problem and nothing is being done about it, they can simply refuse to renew or offer cover
so what is best? it should be borne in mind that just looking at the totals does not reflect other issues such as social justice. the ' world markets ' scenarios will make some people very rich, but it will produce a larger number of people suffering from flood or storm damage. the issues go beyond social justice when it comes to flooding. there are issues of public health, social cohesion, and law and order to consider as well. it is these issues that concern the insurance industry. insurance companies are nimble and sure footed. if they recognize an area has a particular flood problem and nothing is being done about it, they can simply refuse to renew or offer cover. it is less easy for them to control the dramatic growth they are seeing in looting, vandalism and insurance fraud after a flood or storm event, often driven by a breakdown in social cohesion. various statements from uk government might lead one to believe that it is following the path of ' world markets ' on the other hand, since devolution in 1999, it seems clear that the scottish government is following the ' local stewardship ' route.
What does a vulnerability assessment framework consist of?
it consists of five inter-connected steps: (1) delineation of the adaptation context that includes management goals, description of the stakeholders and agents of change and the relevant climate change scenario; (2) a description of the exposures, impacts and vulnerabilities being evaluated; (3) a review and assessment of the current fisheries management strategies and tactics, and an assessment of current adaptation strategies in place to manage climate change variability and risks from climate change; (4) ranking of the possible exposures, impacts and vulnerabilities in terms of their significance; and (5) consideration of the adaptation options to manage the vulnerabilities and risks from climate change
Should there be communication between each of these steps?
throughout these five steps there should be effective communication
Who should be communicated with?
12 12 consultation with stakeholders and explicit monitoring and review of actions that feeds back into the decision-making process
a vulnerability assessment framework to assist with climate adaptation decision-making is provided in figure 4. it consists of five inter-connected steps: (1) delineation of the adaptation context that includes management goals, description of the stakeholders and agents of change and the relevant climate change scenario; (2) a description of the exposures, impacts and vulnerabilities being evaluated; (3) a review and assessment of the current fisheries management strategies and tactics, and an assessment of current adaptation strategies in place to manage climate change variability and risks from climate change; (4) ranking of the possible exposures, impacts and vulnerabilities in terms of their significance; and (5) consideration of the adaptation options to manage the vulnerabilities and risks from climate change. throughout these five steps there should be effective communication and 12 12 consultation with stakeholders and explicit monitoring and review of actions that feeds back into the decision-making process.
What makes this area of study so difficult?
this is difficult because there are many dimensions of variability (daily, seasonal, interannual) and response of crops to extreme conditions and extreme events
What is the main doubt of most climatologists?
doubt the reliability of these projections because of the coarse resolution of the models
What was the other example of determining the outcome a crop due to extreme conditions?
and/or whether extreme temperatures occur during the very short period when crops are flowering can mean the difference between crop failure and minimal impact (26 ,27 
one of the more difficult areas of study is future change in variability. this is difficult because there are many dimensions of variability (daily, seasonal, interannual) and response of crops to extreme conditions and extreme events. for example, whether a drought lasts 1 2 rather than 1 0 days and/or whether extreme temperatures occur during the very short period when crops are flowering can mean the difference between crop failure and minimal impact (26 ,27 ). the climate scenarios produced by general circulation models provide some information on changes in climate variability. most climatologists however, doubt the reliability of these projections because of the coarse resolution of the models and because the forces that create climate variability result from processes that operate below the grid scale resolution of the gcms. all of these issues mean that there are many research questions that could be asked and many ways to approach such studies.
What are the results from  plasticity in populations that are not locally adapted?
spatial or temporal phenotypic variation in situ results from plasticity
What are the results from Increased phenotypic plasticity in population?
the mean laying dates of great tit parus major populations in both the netherlands and the united kingdom have advanced with climate warming in recent decades as a result of phenotypic plasticity
What does  gene flow facilitate?
further evolution of adaptive phenotypic plasticity if new environmental conditions persist over a number of generations
these traits will likely respond to climate warming primarily through phenotypic plasticity rather than through genetic adaptation. conversely, some behavioral and physiological events are triggered by factors that remain stable despite climate change, such as photoperiod. these biological processes may require genetic changes to be adaptive (bradshaw holzapfel 2007, jackson 2009). in populations that are not locally adapted, spatial or temporal phenotypic variation in situ results from plasticity, and if all populations have equivalent plasticity, then agf will have little effect on climate change-related outcomes in these populations. phenotypic plasticity itself has a genetic basis, and its extent can differ among populations. for example, the mean laying dates of great tit parus major populations in both the netherlands and the united kingdom have advanced with climate warming in recent decades as a result of phenotypic plasticity. however, compared with the netherlands population, the uk population has had a greater phenotypic response to the same amount of warming (husby et al. 2010). as the world warms, climates are also predicted to become more variable (solomon et al. 2007). increased phenotypic plasticity may allow populations to tolerate wider climatic fluctuations, and preferentially assisting the movement of individuals from populations with a high degree of plasticity may be desirable in some cases. for example, some populations of lodgepole pine pinus contorta have reaction norms that show a wider climatic tolerance than others, and these populations also tend to be among the most productive for forestry (wang et al. 2006). choices of source populations for agf should consider the full spectrum of future projected environments for the target population, although doing so will be difficult given the considerable uncertainty around projections. moreover, gene flow (whether anthropogenic or natural) introduces genetic variation not only for traits but also for plasticity, meaning that gene flow may facilitate the further evolution of adaptive phenotypic plasticity if new environmental conditions persist over a number of generations.
Even in the best case scenario, is it likely that greenhouse gas emissions will ever be reduced?
in the best case scenario that emissions trading is strictly regulated, it is still unlikely to achieve even the woefully inadequate reductions in greenhouse gas emissions enshrined in the kyoto protocol
Is it likely that emissions markets will ever be tightly regulated?
furthermore, the neo-liberal trends in international trade make it unlikely that emissions markets will ever be tightly regulated
Why is emissions trading being used to distract from changes that are urgently needed?
transnational fossil fuel corporations and the governments of industrialized countries will not concede power willingly. that is why emissions trading is being used to distract attention away from the changes that are urgently needed
in the best case scenario that emissions trading is strictly regulated, it is still unlikely to achieve even the woefully inadequate reductions in greenhouse gas emissions enshrined in the kyoto protocol. this would be true even if the us joined the rest of the major polluting countries in ratifying the protocol. yet should a foolproof monitoring system be put in place, the whole system would lose its appeal of being cheap and unchallenging for corporations, and so any attempt to introduce such methods will be strongly opposed. furthermore, the neo-liberal trends in international trade make it unlikely that emissions markets will ever be tightly regulated. the strategy and tactics of emissions trading have been adorned with the rationale of neo-liberal ideology; they have become so institutionalized in international forums that regulatory initiatives are unlikely to be proposed from within their circles. yet even if emissions trading were adequately regulated, the reality is that the trading in pollution best serves the needs of those with the most to lose from resolving the climate crisis. as climate change exposes fundamental flaws in the current world order, only the most challenging responses will have any prospect of success. transnational fossil fuel corporations and the governments of industrialized countries will not concede power willingly. that is why emissions trading is being used to distract attention away from the changes that are urgently needed. in this way corporations and government are able to build the illusion of taking action on climate change while reinforcing current unequal power structures. emissions trading therefore becomes an instrument by means of which the current world order, built and founded on a history of colonialism, wields a new kind of "carbon colonialism." as with the colonialism of old, this new colonizing force justifies its interference through moral rhetoric. as the colonizers seek to resolve climate change, they conveniently "forget" the true source of the problem. with the looming climate crisis and the desperate need for action, the resulting course recommended by corporations
What are some coping strategies that can be used to remedy the major climate event, drought??
coping strategies for extreme climatic events such as drought (46-48, 54, 69) typically involve changes in the relative importance of crops, livestock species and nonagricultural activities, and in interactions between them
Which food crop, for the Tanzanian smallholder, would be strongly negatively impacted by drought?
agrawala et al. (70) suggest that impacts on maize, the main food crop, will be strongly negative for the tanzanian smallholder
What are some strategies/tools used by smaller livelihoods?
many smallholder livelihoods will also include use of wild resources (11), and nonagricultural strategies, such as use of remittances (12
impacts on these systems should be considered in terms of hard to predict compound impacts highly specific to location and livelihood systems in different ecosystems and regions of the world. these livelihood systems are typically complex; they involve a number of crop and livestock species, between which there are interactions--for example, intercropping practices (39) or the use of draught animal power for cultivation (68), and potential substitutions such as alternative crops. many smallholder livelihoods will also include use of wild resources (11), and nonagricultural strategies, such as use of remittances (12). coping strategies for extreme climatic events such as drought (46-48, 54, 69) typically involve changes in the relative importance of crops, livestock species and nonagricultural activities, and in interactions between them. positive and negative impacts on different crops may occur in the same farming system. agrawala et al. (70) suggest that impacts on maize, the main food crop, will be strongly negative for the tanzanian smallholder, whereas impacts on coffee and cotton, significant cash crops, may be positive.
Why may some studies be of less relevance in designing immediate adaptation responses?
they may be less likely to mislead
What does this review focus on specifically?
this review focuses specifically on cities
What is the intention of the study?
to identify whether the potential advantages of undertaking city-scale impact analyses are being exploited fully, particularly with regard to including economic considerations of impacts, and towards the economic consideration of adaptation, and what are the limitations to such analysis
we also highlight the need to think about future research in the context of overall objectives and subsequent action. the quantification and valuation of large future risks is a key step to raising awareness and can help identify possible priorities. however, such studies maybe of less relevance in designing immediate adaptation responses where uncertainty dictates that qualitative approaches are more appropriate since they may be less likely to mislead (fussel and klein, 2006). accordingly, there is also a need to consider how city scale research can help inform early priorities where action is economically rational, including building capacity, addressing current climate variability and focusing on no regret measures, as well as investigating early decisions which involve longer-term considerations such as with infrastructure and spatial planning, but where - in all cases - the context is of continued profound uncertainty as to the nature and timing of climatic change (watkiss et al, 2009). 7 section 2 of this review provides a sectoral-based overview of the effects of climate change on cities. section 3 then reviews the literature on climate impact assessments relating to a small number of individual cities where such assessments have begun to be used in decision-making relating to climate change adaptation. finally, section 4 draws together conclusions relating to methodological issues and the future policy use of city-scale studies and identifies principal research gaps. this review focuses specifically on cities, and explores the extent to which economic analysis has been incorporated into the climate change impacts at this scale, as well as the potential for progress within local institutional frameworks. the ultimate intention of the review is to identify whether the potential advantages of undertaking city-scale impact analyses are being exploited fully, particularly with regard to including economic considerations of impacts, and towards the economic consideration of adaptation, and what are the limitations to such analysis.
Where can you find the identified 12 common and major variation sensistivities?
fig. 3), and 10 are supported by previous studies table s3 
What percent of dependencies explain phenotypic variation?
the 12 qtl and environmental dependencies explain 45% of the total phenotypic variation, which is strikingly different from that reported in maize or human studies, where the genetic architecture is dominated by many small additive qtl (32
What area has spread widely throughout the latitudinal range?
thaliana has spread widely throughout the latitudinal range and into several growing seasons
using gwa mapping, we identi fi ed 12 common and major qtl controlling the natural variation of seasonal ft that show unique environmental sensitivities to growing season and location (fig. 3), and 10 are supported by previous studies table s3 ). the 12 qtl and environmental dependencies explain 45% of the total phenotypic variation, which is strikingly different from that reported in maize or human studies, where the genetic architecture is dominated by many small additive qtl (32). our major seasonal ft-qtl sense local seasonal environments, show signi fi cant correlation with latitude (fig. 4), and have pleiotropic effects on yield. together, they are likely to play important roles in local adaptation. through various allelic combinations of major loci, with unique environmental sensitivities, a. thaliana has spread widely throughout the latitudinal range and into several growing seasons.
Explain independent origins of herbivory?
the number of independent origins of herbivory in recent nonliolaemid squamates was reconstructed by using macclade (40) based on reviews of squamate herbivory (9, 10). monophyly and relationships among squamate families followed revisions and summaries (43, 44); however, our results should be insensitive to uncertainty about interfamilial relationships because herbivory almost always arises within families
What is the basic results ?
we summarize the basic results here by family (number of independent origins of herbivory, herbivorous taxa; ref. 9): iguanidae (1, all genera); agamidae (2, hydrosaurus and uromastyx ); lacertidae (1, gallotia simonyi ); scincidae (4, corucia egernia macroscincus and tiliqua ); gerrhosauridae (1, angolosaurus ); and teiidae (1-2, cnemidophorus arubensis cnemidophorus murinus and cnemidophorus sp
Is species within each genus are necessarily herbivorous. ?
not all species within each genus are necessarily herbivorous
the number of independent origins of herbivory in recent nonliolaemid squamates was reconstructed by using macclade (40) based on reviews of squamate herbivory (9, 10). monophyly and relationships among squamate families followed revisions and summaries (43, 44); however, our results should be insensitive to uncertainty about interfamilial relationships because herbivory almost always arises within families. we summarize the basic results here by family (number of independent origins of herbivory, herbivorous taxa; ref. 9): iguanidae (1, all genera); agamidae (2, hydrosaurus and uromastyx ); lacertidae (1, gallotia simonyi ); scincidae (4, corucia egernia macroscincus and tiliqua ); gerrhosauridae (1, angolosaurus ); and teiidae (1-2, cnemidophorus arubensis cnemidophorus murinus and cnemidophorus sp.). note that not all species within each genus are necessarily herbivorous. the genera listed above that are not followed by specific species are conservatively estimated to contain a single origin of herbivory. maximum body sizes (svls) of recent herbivorous lizards were assembled from the literature as summarized in ref. 9.
Many of the mangrove areas of the GBR are associated with what?
many of the mangrove areas of the gbr region are associated with broad, flat coastal plains that often have large areas of intertidal salt flat and high intertidal salt marsh (eg fitsroy river71
By how many meters has the GBR region sea level dropped in the last 6000 years?
sea level in the gbr region has dropped by approximately one metre in the last 6000 years resulting in mangrove forests that currently occupy the edges of coastal plains with the development of salt flats and salt marshes behind them (landward), and in areas of high rainfall, the development of extensive fresh water marshes
Is landward migration known to have occurred in the past in some areas in Australia?
landward migration is known to have occurred in the past84,79,188, and in some areas in australia, and globally, is already occurring (eg king sound in northwest western australia158; mary river, northern territory14; southern australian salt marshes157,152), resulting in significant changes in diversity and ecosystem function, often necessitating changes in human utilisation of the coastc77,105,106,131. although changes are anticipated in vegetation structure and coverage of intertidal wetlands with sea level rise, understanding of the functional consequences of these changes remains mainly qualitative. the impacts of sea level rise on tidal wetland fauna, sediment trapping, nutrient and carbon fluxes are currently not known with any certainty
many of the mangrove areas of the gbr region are associated with broad, flat coastal plains that often have large areas of intertidal salt flat and high intertidal salt marsh (eg fitsroy river71). in previous high sea level stands salt flats and salt marsh areas were covered in mangrove forests, in what woodroffe186,187 has called the 'big swamp' phase of estuary development. sea level in the gbr region has dropped by approximately one metre in the last 6000 years resulting in mangrove forests that currently occupy the edges of coastal plains with the development of salt flats and salt marshes behind them (landward), and in areas of high rainfall, the development of extensive fresh water marshes. with sea level rise landward migration of mangroves into salt marshes, fresh water wetlands or agricultural lands (where there are no significant human barriers to prevent this) is highly probable. landward migration is known to have occurred in the past84,79,188, and in some areas in australia, and globally, is already occurring (eg king sound in northwest western australia158; mary river, northern territory14; southern australian salt marshes157,152), resulting in significant changes in diversity and ecosystem function, often necessitating changes in human utilisation of the coastc77,105,106,131. although changes are anticipated in vegetation structure and coverage of intertidal wetlands with sea level rise, understanding of the functional consequences of these changes remains mainly qualitative. the impacts of sea level rise on tidal wetland fauna, sediment trapping, nutrient and carbon fluxes are currently not known with any certainty. using data from table 9.3, and physical parameters available from the audit of australian estuaries database we provide a preliminary assessment of the impacts of sea level rise on some of the ecosystem services provided by mangroves and associated wetlands
What is the purpose of scientific research and information in this paragraph?
to the extent that information and awareness are limiting factors, however, science could play a critical role in filling such information gaps and raising managers ' awareness and understanding of climate change risks
What information needs have been identified by coastal managers?
the overarching message emerging from the information needs identified by coastal managers is that climate change science still needs to be translated into types of information that are salient to the manager
What information was being gathered
interviewees varied considerably, for example, in their knowledge of local or state-based researchers who could help them understand their climate change risks
based on interviewees ' views, considerable effort will need to be made to make scientific information relevant to, and fitting seamlessly into, existing decision-making procedures. agency personnel will also need top-level leadership and incentives to direct their attention to climate change matters. to the extent that information and awareness are limiting factors, however, science could play a critical role in filling such information gaps and raising managers ' awareness and understanding of climate change risks. interviewees varied considerably, for example, in their knowledge of local or state-based researchers who could help them understand their climate change risks. table 1 lists some of the major information needs revealed through the interviews (see also tribbia and moser 2008 ). the overarching message emerging from the information needs identified by coastal managers is that climate change science still needs to be translated into types of information that are salient to the manager (for elaborate discussion on the importance of salience, among other information attributes, see cash 2001 cash et al. 2003 moser 2006 ). for example, while sea-level rise projections are valuable as a general indicator to raise awareness of future coastal risks in a general sense, permitting officers who determine setback distances
What year was the oil crisis?
1976
What could reduce the tidal flood risk?
a tidal barrage across the severn
following the oil price crisis in 1976, the government set up the severn barrage committee to assess the feasibility of a tidal barrage across the river severn. according to evidence from this committee to the parliamentary select committee on climate change in march 1999, just this one barrage could make a significant contribution. it would cost around ps 10 billion to build, but it would produce 6% of the annual electricity demand of england and wales, and reduce annual greenhouse gas emissions by 16 million tonnes. a more ambitious scheme could generate even more power. a tidal barrage would create more benign conditions in the severn estuary and one recent proposal for the severn estimated that a barrage could lead to 40 000 new jobs in the area. such a barrage could be operational within 15 years of getting the funding to proceed. a tidal barrage across the severn could reduce the tidal flood risk upstream, although measures might be needed to prevent excessive siltation, provide for disposal of effluent from bristol and cardiff, and safeguard wetland wildlife. the biggest stumbling block to such a project is the length of time it would take to pay back the large capital costs, but as pressure grows for more ' clean energy ' sources, the project becomes increasingly attractive.
Corresponding to the shift in climate, what was there an overall decline in?
the abundance of all winter annual plants
How did the decline in the abundance of all winter annual plants affect species?
unequally, shifting community composition
What did calculations of k followed by simple regression and hierarchical partitioning analysis reveal?
that germination, rather than survivorship or fecundity, was the primary factor driving abundance changes for seven of our nine study species
corresponding to the shift in climate, there was an overall decline in the abundance of all winter annual plants during our study (fig. 2a). this decline affected species unequally, shifting community composition (fig. 2b, supporting information fig. s3, supporting information tables s1 and s2). calculations of k followed by simple regression and hierarchical partitioning analysis revealed that germination, rather than survivorship or fecundity, was the primary factor driving abundance changes for seven of our nine study species (table 1, supporting information fig. s4). the other two species, erodium cicutarium and pectocarya recurvata had abundance patterns primarily influenced by survivorship and fecundity, respectively. hierarchical partitioning confirmed these results and provided additional information, clarifying the importance of germination in addition to survivorship for e. cicutarium
What was the new articles accessed in this passage?
the textual representations of tabloid new articles were accessed and compiled through the lexis nexis searchable archive using the boolean query 'climate change or global warming
How many articles containing overall ?
overall, 4945 articles containing these words were published in these sources from 2000 through 2006
Where is the sample taken from according to this passage?
the sample taken from this total population consisted of 974 articles, or 20
the textual representations of tabloid new articles were accessed and compiled through the lexis nexis searchable archive using the boolean query 'climate change or global warming'. the sample set was assembled by random selection of every fifth article as it appeared in the archive chronologically, containing either of these terms. it was initiated by systematically opting in from a random starting point in january of each year. overall, 4945 articles containing these words were published in these sources from 2000 through 2006. the sample taken from this total population consisted of 974 articles, or 20%. the news articles consisted of 19%
Hydrated sulphates are observed with what instrument?
omega (observatoire pour la mineralogie, l'eau, les glaces et l'activite') instrument
Mars has what presence?
he presence of phyllosilicates on mars
Hydrates sulphates are observed with the OMEGA instrument on what mission?
mars express mission
the presence of hydrated minerals on mars provides a record of water-related processes. hydrated sulphates have been observed with the omega (observatoire pour la mineralogie, l'eau, les glaces et l'activite') instrument on board the european space agency (esa) mars express mission, in numerous light-toned layered deposits in valles marineris, aram chaos, and terra meridiani1and in deposits adjacent to the north polar cap2. observations in terra meridiani by the opportunity rover of a variety of sulphates in layered rocks also require an active hydrologic system to account for these deposits3. the presence of phyllosilicates on mars has been previously suggested on the basis of in situ elemental analyses by the viking landers4, the identification of smectites in some snc (shergottite-nakhlite-chassigny) meteorites5, and remote sensing infrared observations6-9. an unambiguous detection of water-bearing phyllosilicates has been reported over large areas10. here we present an overview of the detection of phyllosilicates made by omega, and we discuss their geological context inferred from analyses of imaging data. phyllosilicates represent a very specific family of highly altered
What depends on this decision?
ultimately, this decision depends on human values, particularly on our valuation of intergenerational equity, food and water security, maintenance of ecosystem services, biodiversity, and the preservation of unique environments (such as coral reefs and glaciers
What will require transformation to net-zero emissions?
transformation to net-zero emissions will require that resources must be managed in a completely different and sustainable way, entailing profound changes not only in energy generation, but also in land use and agriculture
What are the negotiations have emphasized short-term emissions goals?
in each of the 21 conferences of the parties (cop) to the un framework convention on climate change since the framework was first signed in 1992, negotiations have emphasized short-term emissions goals. such short-term emissions targets are important, as they represent tangible steps that individual countries are taking towards reducing emissions. some of these reductions will come from the deployment of non-fossil fuel technologies and increasing energy efficiency. but accelerated investment in the technologies required to achieve deeper reductions over the long term -- such
ultimately, this decision depends on human values, particularly on our valuation of intergenerational equity, food and water security, maintenance of ecosystem services, biodiversity, and the preservation of unique environments (such as coral reefs and glaciers). are future generations entitled to the same environmental stability and biodiversity that has been afforded our generation and hundreds of generations before us? what is clear from our analysis is that the decisions being made today will have profound and permanent consequences for future generations as well as for the planet; yet future generations are not part of today's decision making, and today's decision makers do not have to live with most consequences of their decisions. discount rates may describe the economic view of how much we are willing to pay, but they do not answer the deeper moral and ethical questions of how much we should pay. science can never be used to answer a question concerning the importance of intergenerational equity, morality or ethics, nor can it ever be used to prescribe a particular policy; these are inherently value judgments. however, science is able to examine the implications of different policy options, especially when those options entail substantially different climate risks2,83. policies can also be developed or modified to reflect the latest science, as risks are revised to incorporate new observations and new understanding. but in the end, the formulation of policy requires engaging a broad range of stakeholders -- the citizens of our planet, representing an incredible diversity of religious, political, cultural, economic, and ethical viewpoints. it also requires dealing with ethical, political, legal, financial and social issues, including reasonable application of the precautionary principle. an evaluation of climate change risks that only considers the next 85 years of climate change impacts fails to provide essential information to stakeholders, the public and the political leaders who will ultimately be tasked with making decisions about policies on behalf of all, with impacts that will last for millennia. a second important implication emerging from our results is that to avoid severe impacts, there is a need for policies that lead to a new global energy system that has net-zero or net-negative co2 emissions, and not simply for policies aimed at near-term emissions reductions. as discussed above, it is clear that peak warming and peak sea-level rise depend on cumulative co2 emissions, and that a marginal reduction in emissions is insufficient to prevent future damages. climate interventions involving carbon dioxide removal require further research to decrease costs and increase efficiency84, while strategies such as solar radiation management with stratospheric aerosols face major obstacles, including poorly understood risks85. even if these latter efforts were effective, they do not replace the need for a global energy system with net-zero (or net-negative) carbon emissions. indeed, the long timescales of the carbon cycle and climate system require that such interventions, once deployed, persist for tens of thousands of years without fail unless carbon is removed from the atmosphere. a net-zero emissions energy system, however it develops, will look completely different from our current energy system. a complete transformation is required86 in what some have termed the fourth industrial revolution. the first two revolutions involved mechanization and electrification. the third revolution -- the advent of the computer -- transformed our ability to transmit and process enormous volumes of data, and now affects almost every aspect of our lives. the fourth revolution must inevitably lead to decarbonization of current energy systems. transformation to net-zero emissions will require that resources must be managed in a completely different and sustainable way, entailing profound changes not only in energy generation, but also in land use and agriculture. the term fourth industrial revolution not only indicates the scale, scope, and long-term character of the task but also carries an optimistic message. the previous three industrial revolutions created new jobs, new wealth and shifted power structures. there is no reason why the fourth industrial revolution should not yield similar opportunities for growth and positive change. in each of the 21 conferences of the parties (cop) to the un framework convention on climate change since the framework was first signed in 1992, negotiations have emphasized short-term emissions goals. such short-term emissions targets are important, as they represent tangible steps that individual countries are taking towards reducing emissions. some of these reductions will come from the deployment of non-fossil fuel technologies and increasing energy efficiency. but accelerated investment in the technologies required to achieve deeper reductions over the long term -- such
According to the text, what was the aim of the study?
this may have been unrealistic, but the aim of the study was to assess the influence of the spatial extent of the models, separate from other factors such as dispersal, which have been dealt with by previous authors (e.g. higgins harte, 2006
Why was it not possible to do the same study for some widespread lowland species?
it was not possible to carry out the same procedure for more widespread lowland species as their warm range margins were not found within the limited local and national extents. however, these species were not expected to be lost from the study site under climate change
fig. 1. we created bioclimate models for a set of 10 montane and 10 lowland species at local and european scales. for the local models we used plot-level botanical survey data to predict species distributions on a 50 m  50 m grid across a single mountain range in scotland. the macro models were trained on species' european distributions taken from botanical atlases. these models were used to predict distributions across great britain on a 50 km  50 km grid. the macro models were also reprojected (downscaled) to a 5 km  5 km grid across great britain (see pearson et al ., 2002). the predicted species distributions from both the macro and downscaled models were compared with observed british distribution records. we applied climate change scenarios to all three types of model and projected potential future climate space for each species. species were assumed to be able to disperse to all newly suitable climate space. this may have been unrealistic, but the aim of the study was to assess the influence of the spatial extent of the models, separate from other factors such as dispersal, which have been dealt with by previous authors (e.g. higgins harte, 2006). the projections of each model (macro, downscaled and local) were compared at the study site. to aid interpretation of the modelling results, we examined the effect of grain size and spatial extent on the estimation of montane species' thermal tolerances at warm range margins. species and climate data at local, national and continental scales were used to estimate the observed temperatures at their warm range margins, by finding the estimated warmest grid cells or quadrats in which each species occurred. it was not possible to carry out the same procedure for more widespread lowland species as their warm range margins were not found within the limited local and national extents. however, these species were not expected to be lost from the study site under climate change.
when tropical cyclones are absent in North Indian Ocean
tropical cyclones are absent from june to september in the north indian ocean
What does  comparision between the present-day and future experiments reveals
a comparison between the present-day and future experiments reveals no significant differences in the seasonal change of the occurrence rate aggregated over the globe (global
How the monthly change in the pattern varies among the regions explain with example
however, one may notice that the monthly change in the pattern varies among the regions. considering typhoons, for instance, which are a kind of tropical cyclone residing in the western north pacific, the season usually ends in october in the present-day climate; however, in the future climate, the season usually continues until november
hemisphere and from january to march in the southern hemisphere. the pattern of the velocity range and the seasonal advance in the future experiment is remarkably similar to that in the present-day experiment; the tropical cyclones, with a higher rate of occurrence, still lie within the velocity range similar to that of the present-day experiment. a notable change is that the occurrence rate of the tropical cyclones with the maximum wind speed exceeding 50 m s 1increases somewhat in the future experiment. on hemispheric and basin scales, the simulated seasonality of the tropical cyclone activity varies from region to region. broadly speaking, however, the comparison between the presentday experiment and observation reveals that the seasonal change of the simulated wind patterns is in agreement with the observation in the northern hemisphere, southern hemisphere, north indian ocean, and western north pacific. we confirm that tropical cyclones are absent from june to september in the north indian ocean. the period is characterized by enhanced vertical shear around the region, due to the summer monsoon season, which tends to suppress the formation and development of tropical cyclones. our model, thus, simulates the relevant basic climate of this region reasonably well (kusunoki et al. 2005), demonstrating an improved representation of the seasonal change of the basic fields. on the other hand, in terms of the quantitative comparison, the model has a bias to simulate weaker wind speed compared to observation, which will be discussed later. a comparison between the present-day and future experiments reveals no significant differences in the seasonal change of the occurrence rate aggregated over the globe (global). however, one may notice that the monthly change in the pattern varies among the regions. considering typhoons, for instance, which are a kind of tropical cyclone residing in the western north pacific, the season usually ends in october in the present-day climate; however, in the future climate, the season usually continues until november. there is also an indication that intense typhoons (with a velocity exceeding 50 m s 1), have a higher rate of occurrence from september to october. these changes should have something to do with the changes in the environmental conditions of tropical cyclones, a topic which will require further investigation.
Why is it important to determine the amount of sludge?
he amount of sludge is important to establish the excess sludge wastage moment
How is usually evaluated the sludge quality?
he sludge quality is usually evaluated by specific methanogenic activity (sma) and sedimentation tests
Why the work regarding the pre-treatment system require the presence of personnel?
e works regarding the pre-treatment system require the frequent presence of personnel to verify whether there are blockages
activities to determine the amount and quality of the sludge in the reactor and in the excess sludge processing unit. the amount of sludge is important to establish the excess sludge wastage moment. the sludge quality is usually evaluated by specific methanogenic activity (sma) and sedimentation tests. regarding the quality of the excess sludge, the stability in which the sludge is wasted from the reactor and the solids fraction (or moisture fraction) in the dewatering unit (drying beds, centrifuges, filters or others) are important in addition to these four specific groups, there may be others, depending on the intended use of the effluent. for instance, when the effluent is intended to be used (after a complementary treatment) in irrigation, it will be important to monitor the level of the nutrients n and p, although they do not play an important role in the treatment system and their removal is not the purpose of the anaerobic treatment. in general, the tasks specified in the different groups will be carried out by different people. thus, the works regarding the pre-treatment system require the frequent presence of personnel to verify whether there are blockages. usually, the removal of coarse solids and sand collected in the pre-treatment units, as well as of dewatered sludge from the drying beds, will be manual, requiring unskilled labour. on the other hand, sampling of the biological treatment system and the undertaking of analyses to verify treatment efficiency, operational stability and the sludge mass in the reactor require more qualified personnel.
What is a persistent issue due to non-removal by treatment?
contaminants in the effluent of the biological treatment
What is the highlight topic of this paragraph?
the water and sanitation company
What effluents must be complied with?
the effluents must comply with 62 to wastewater characteristics
persistence of contaminants in the effluent of the biological treatment, because of the fact that they have not been removed by the treatment. the water and sanitation company, to receive the industrial wastewaters, must have specific standards for the discharge of industrial effluents into the public sewerage system. if a pollutant leads to one of the above problems, the industry must pre-treat the wastewater, in order to place the effluent within the standards of the sanitation company for discharge into the public sewerage system. the industry can opt for complete treatment and discharge the industrial effluent directly into the receiving water body. in this case, the effluents must comply with 62 to wastewater characteristics, treatment and disposal
Define anthropogenic.
there is widespread agreement in the natural sciences that observed increases in average global temperatures over the past century are due in large part to the anthropogenic (human generated) emission of greenhouse gases, primarily stemming from fossil fuel combustion and land use changes (e.g., deforestation
Describe metabolism.
we extend the discussions of metabolism (the relationship of exchange between nature and humans) and metabolic rift to the biosphere in general and to the carbon cycle in particular
Does technological progress increase or decrease the use of resources?
technological "improvements" have actually increased the amount of resources used, since expansion in production typically outstrips gains in efficiency - a situation known as the jevons paradox
brett clark and richard york university of oregon there is widespread agreement in the natural sciences that observed increases in average global temperatures over the past century are due in large part to the anthropogenic (human generated) emission of greenhouse gases, primarily stemming from fossil fuel combustion and land use changes (e.g., deforestation). many social processes have been identified for their contribution to climate change. however, few theoretical approaches have been used to study systematically the relations of the social with the biosphere. our goal is to illustrate how the theory of metabolic rift provides a powerful approach for understanding human influence on the carbon cycle and global climate change. we extend the discussions of metabolism (the relationship of exchange between nature and humans) and metabolic rift to the biosphere in general and to the carbon cycle in particular. we situate our discussion of the metabolic rift in the historical context of an expanding, global capitalist system that largely influences the organization of human interactions with the environment. the general properties of a metabolic rift between nature and society include the disruption or interruption of natural processes and cycles, the accumulation of waste, and environmental degradation. due to capitalism's inherent expansionary tendencies, technological development serves to escalate commodity production, which necessitates the burning of fossil fuels to power the machinery of production. as this process unfolded historically, it served to flood carbon sinks and generate an accumulation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. technological "improvements" have actually increased the amount of resources used, since expansion in production typically outstrips gains in efficiency - a situation known as the jevons paradox. the theory of the metabolic rift reveals how capital contributes to the systematic degradation of the biosphere.
what are the two types of cyclones discussed in this paragraph?
tropical cyclones: extratropical cyclones
what are extratropical cyclones are fairly well resolved by?
most cmip5 gcms
what  is necessary to assess physical behaviour underlying projected changes?
projected changes in energy and water cycles couple with changes in atmospheric circulation and mass distribution
projected changes in energy and water cycles couple with changes in atmospheric circulation and mass distribution. understanding this coupling is necessary to assess physical behaviour underlying projected changes, particularly at regional scales, revealing why changes occur and the realism of the changes. the focus in this section is on atmospheric circulation behaviour that cmip5 gcms resolve well. thus, the section includes discussion of extratropical cyclones but not tropical cyclones: extratropical cyclones are fairly well resolved by most cmip5 gcms, whereas tropical cyclones are not, requiring resolutions finer than used by the large majority of cmip5 gcms (see section 9.5.4.3). detailed discussion of tropical cyclones appears in section 14.6.1 (see also section 11.3.2.5.3 for near term changes and section 3.4.4 in seneviratne et al. (2012)). regional detail concerning extratropical storm tracks, including causal processes, appears in section 14.6.2 (see also section 11.3.2.4 for near-term changes and seneviratne et al. (2012) for an assessment of projected changes related to weather and climate extremes).
What will be the reason for sea level pressures to decrease in high latitudes and increase in mid-latitudes?
mean sea level pressure is projected to decrease in high latitudes and increase in the mid-latitudes as global temperatures rise
Where are the Hadley and Walker Circulations based?
in the tropics, the hadley and walker circulations are likely to slow down
In which century will the polward shifts end?
poleward shifts in the mid-latitude jets of about 1 to 2 degrees latitude are likely at the end of the 21st century
mean sea level pressure is projected to decrease in high latitudes and increase in the mid-latitudes as global temperatures rise. in the tropics, the hadley and walker circulations are likely to slow down. poleward shifts in the mid-latitude jets of about 1 to 2 degrees latitude are likely at the end of the 21st century under rcp8.5 in both hemispheres medium confidence ), with weaker shifts in the nh. in austral summer, the additional influence of stratospheric ozone recovery in the southern hemisphere opposes changes due to ghgs there, though the net response varies strongly across models and scenarios. substantial uncertainty and thus low confidence remains in projecting changes in nh storm tracks, especially for the north atlantic basin. the hadley cell is likely to widen, which translates to broader tropical regions and a poleward encroachment of subtropical dry zones. in the stratosphere, the brewer-dobson circulation is likely to strengthen. {12.4.4, figures 12.18, 12.19, 12.20}
why is the water demand inelastic?
results demonstrate that water demand is, in most cases, relatively inelastic because water has no substitutes for basic uses and because expenditure on water represents a small share of total household income
What have economists examined?
economists have examined the determinants of residential water demand, with emphasis on price
What would it take to influence water use?
d take large increases in price to influence water use substantially, and the nature of this relationship can be estimated using econometric functions (arbues et al. 2003
economists have examined the determinants of residential water demand, with emphasis on price. results demonstrate that water demand is, in most cases, relatively inelastic because water has no substitutes for basic uses and because expenditure on water represents a small share of total household income. it would take large increases in price to influence water use substantially, and the nature of this relationship can be estimated using econometric functions (arbues et al. 2003). while recognizing the value and importance of this work from a policy perspective we choose to focus instead on the sensitivity of water use to variation in climatic conditions--how responsive, in other words, is water-use behavior to changes in rainfall and other climatic processes? do humans adapt to change in environmental conditions by altering their landscaping practices?
What does the comparison of the cost-benefit analysis without and with adaptation options shows in the first year?
there is an increase in the average gross margins from us$ 94 per hectare to us$ 221
Why does the gain increases in the subsequent years?
since all the construction costs fall in year 1
What does the extended rainwater implies
a very large increase in the yield from 352 kg/ha without adaptation to 586 kg/ha with adaptation
a comparison of the cost-benefit analysis without and with adaptation options (tables 6 and 7) shows that there is an increase in the average gross margins from us$ 94 per hectare to us$ 221 in the first year with adaptation and this gain increases in the subsequent years since all the construction costs fall in year 1, see also table 8. the extended rainwater harvesting system implies a very large increase in the yield from 352 kg/ha without adaptation to 586 kg/ha with adaptation. the net present value (npv) for the total result of the adaptation investment is calculated from the net benefits of adaptation and is shown in table 8.
What do editors do seek to represent?
public voices, albeit through a narrow repertoire of more or less staged televisual forms
What does Cottle's study uncovers?
the cultural politics of environmental news production
What is Cottle's study about?
empirical analysis of the use of lay voices in the visualization of environmental risks
despite the absence of a lively politics of climate change that could be reported much as tax, health, or defense issues through the voices of competing elected representatives, editors do seek to represent public voices, albeit through a narrow repertoire of more or less staged televisual forms. "ordinary people" are not completely excluded as sources in the telling of environmental risks in the media, but there are some fairly rigid, if unstated, conventions that limit and shape their role. cottle's (2000, pp. 29-44) empirical analysis of the use of lay voices in the visualization of environmental risks in tv news demonstrates the point. his study uncovers the cultural politics of environmental news production, showing that although lay voices are often presented within a report as making a particular threat tangible, through it being vividly experienced by a human subject, they are rarely given a chance to put forward their own
How empirical character of temperature-index models is used?
due to the empirical character of temperature-index models, the sitespecific parameters, fm and rice snow, have to be calibrated using direct observations
Explain about semi-automated calibration procedure?
optimal values for the three melt parameters, as well as the accumulation parameters (equation (9)), have been obtained using a semi-automated calibration procedure with observed decadal ice volume changes of grosser aletschgletscher (1880-1999), and in situ measurements of accumulation and ablation at up to two dozen sites annually on the glacier surface over several decades (huss and others, 2008
fm rice snowi  t if t 0*c, 0 else, (10) where fm is a melt factor, rice snow are radiation factors for ice and snow, t t x y t is the air temperature extrapolated to each gridcell and i i x y t is the clear-sky direct radiation (obtained from a dem) that accounts for the effects of slope, aspect and topographic shading. due to the empirical character of temperature-index models, the sitespecific parameters, fm and rice snow, have to be calibrated using direct observations. optimal values for the three melt parameters, as well as the accumulation parameters (equation (9)), have been obtained using a semi-automated calibration procedure with observed decadal ice volume changes of grosser aletschgletscher (1880-1999), and in situ measurements of accumulation and ablation at up to two dozen sites annually on the glacier surface over several decades (huss and others, 2008). annual glacier surface mass balance is defined as the sum of solid precipitation and snowor ice melt at the end of the hydrological year (1 october-30 september).
What is investigated on this paper?
the paper investigates how accountants are positioning themselves as managers of carbon
What does the paper examine?
the paper examines the role of the accountancy profession in governing the new carbon economy, seeking to answer questions about the significance of new alliances, coalitions, and resistances aimed at engaging, embedding or rejecting climate change
Who is leading on climate change
international accountancy professional bodies are positioning themselves as leading on climate change, for example, through launching professional training courses, funding research, and initiating corporate workshops and seminars
the paper investigates how accountants are positioning themselves as managers of carbon. since the turn of the century accounting profession organisations have been involved in a number of debates about climate change, catalysed initially by technical discussions about the treatment of european carbon credits in financial accounts. international accountancy professional bodies are positioning themselves as leading on climate change, for example, through launching professional training courses, funding research, and initiating corporate workshops and seminars. the paper examines the role of the accountancy profession in governing the new carbon economy, seeking to answer questions about the significance of new alliances, coalitions, and resistances aimed at engaging, embedding or rejecting climate change. we review climate change related activities undertaken by accountancy professional bodies through drawing on primary empirical material, including interviews with accountants, accountancy standard-setters and professional bodies. a mix of theories about the role of calculation, measurement and expertise in governance are used to help explain and understand the situation, including ideas about accountancy and society, epistemic communities, and governmentality.
The response of accountants to climate change centre on what issues
issues of measurement, calculation, and expertise
How are the concepts and ideas from these literatures used
concepts and ideas from these literatures are used as lenses to examine wider the political and institutional challenges of governing carbon for accountants and the accountancy profession
the theoretical frameworks judged to be most relevant and illuminating in relation to exploring the response of accountants to climate change centre on issues of measurement, calculation, and expertise, and are drawn variously from accountancy and society literatures (covering the history of accountancy and critical examination of the practices and culture of accountancy (hopwood and miller 1994; miller 1994), foucault's theory of governmentality (dean 1999; foucault 1991), and the policy network concept of 'epistemic communities' (haas 1992). these diverse literatures are especially helpful in thinking about how authority is gained through promoting uptake of certain seemingly neutral practices and techniques (eg the application of financial accounting principles and techniques to climate change - double entry book keeping; quantitative and narrative formats etc.), and through discourse (eg the discursive positioning of accountancy as the 'natural home' for the professional management 5 5 of carbon). concepts and ideas from these literatures are used as lenses to examine wider the political and institutional challenges of governing carbon for accountants and the accountancy profession.
What is the thermal inertia?
the physical climate system has great inertia, which is due especially to the thermal inertia of the ocean, the time required for ice sheets to respond to global warming, and the longevity of fossil fuel co2 in the surface carbon reservoirs (atmosphere, ocean, and biosphere
What will likely happen to future generations?
one implication is the likelihood of intergenerational effects, with young people and future generations inheriting a situation in which grave consequences are assured, practically out of their
What happens if there is large-scale climate change?
climate system inertia also means that, if large-scale climate change is allowed to occur, it will be exceedingly long-lived, lasting for many centuries
relevant fundamentals of climate science are clear. the physical climate system has great inertia, which is due especially to the thermal inertia of the ocean, the time required for ice sheets to respond to global warming, and the longevity of fossil fuel co2 in the surface carbon reservoirs (atmosphere, ocean, and biosphere). this inertia implies that there is additional climate change ''in the pipeline'' even without further change of atmospheric composition. climate system inertia also means that, if large-scale climate change is allowed to occur, it will be exceedingly long-lived, lasting for many centuries. one implication is the likelihood of intergenerational effects, with young people and future generations inheriting a situation in which grave consequences are assured, practically out of their
Who studied the loss and damage caused by coastal erosion and storm surges on the island of Kosrae?
monnereau and abraham
Building a boardwalk is a guarantee that impacts are avoided?
is no guarantee
monnereau and abraham (2013) studied loss and damage from coastal erosion and storm surges on the island of kosrae in the federated states of micronesia kosrae has much higher levels of human and economic development than the other study sites. however, a relatively high proportion (40%, see table 2) of respondents did not adopt any adaptation measures to prevent impacts of coastal erosion and storm surges, and 74% indicated that the reason for that was lack of financial means or other resources. this is because the most common adaptation options they have are too expensive or seem inefficient. for example, people may refrain from building a sea wall to protect their house, land and other property because they lack resources and because they have seen from neighbours that building a sea wall is no guarantee that impacts are avoided. when faced with such adaptations limits or constraints, households and communities have to make difficult choices: changing their objectives, accepting loss and damage, or undertaking more significant transformation (see preston et al., 2013; kates et al., 2012). changing objectives often involves a deteriorating standard of living, the loss of cultural values, and the disintegration of commonly held values and practices in the community. accepting loss and damage often means falling incomes, assets, education levels and social status, along with greater poverty, lower food consumption, and diminished future prospects. undertaking more significant transformation can involve more permanent migration out of one's home area, leading to other significant changes in livelihood and social systems.
What has forest management influenced?
forest management has a large influence on forest growth, health and composition
What is an example of a disturbance managed forests may more easily cope with?
for example, during the 1998 ice storm, highly managed fruit trees grown in orchards experienced much less damage than less structured stands of sugar maples
During the 1998 ice storm what trees were able to handle the disturbance better?
highly managed fruit trees grown in orchards experienced much less damage than less structured stands of sugar maples
forest management has a large influence on forest growth, health and composition.(98)forests that are subject to management activities are generally considered to be less vulnerable to the impacts of climate change than forests that are not managed, due to the potential for adaptation.(5)some characteristics of managed forests may also render them better able to cope with disturbances. for example, during the 1998 ice storm, highly managed fruit trees grown in orchards experienced much less damage than less structured stands of sugar maples.(78)management activities, such as the use of subsequent salvage cuttings, may also reduce the degree of long-term damage arising from disturbances such as ice storms.(99)
What mechanism was proposed in creating the international climate regime?
perhaps the most significant idea in creating the international climate regime was the proposal that the market could provide a mechanism for mitigating climate change and meeting kyoto commitments
Where do criticisms from CSE emerge from?
many criticisms (from groups such as cse) can be seen as emerging from anti-colonial and anti-capitalist narratives, disapproving of northern per capita consumption and unequal exchange between north and south
What is revealed behind the negotiations?
the history that lies behind these negotiations on common and differentiated responsibility reveals an interesting blend of traditional international political power relations including north- south and eu-us tensions
the history that lies behind these negotiations on common and differentiated responsibility reveals an interesting blend of traditional international political power relations including north- south and eu-us tensions. an added element is the shared interest of the small island states with their specific vulnerability to sea level rise and the logics of the former soviet bloc's economic collapse that brought inadvertent environmental benefits and easy reductions to many countries. and underlying the position of many nation states was the desire to minimise their actual obligation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by selecting the most beneficial base year, a later timetable, claiming credit for forest and land sinks, and a particular basket of gases. many criticisms (from groups such as cse) can be seen as emerging from anti-colonial and anti-capitalist narratives, disapproving of northern per capita consumption and unequal exchange between north and south. the critique of the kyoto commitments is mostly framed around questions of climate justice, particularly the balance between low emissions and high vulnerability in the developing world compared to high emissions in the developed world, especially by the united states and by major multinational corporations36. these north-south issues are increasing in saliency as negotiators start to plan for the next phase of commitments beyond 2012 when the developing world is expected to take on some form of responsibility for mitigation and there is a greater expectation that funds will be transferred from north to south for adaptation. the market as solution perhaps the most significant idea in creating the international climate regime was the proposal that the market could provide a mechanism for mitigating climate change and meeting kyoto commitments. consistent with broader ideologies of market environmentalism and ecological
Why should maturation ponds reach high coliform removal efficiencies?
the maturation ponds should reach high coliform removal efficiencies (e 99.9 or 99.99 %), so that the effluent can comply with most uses of the water in the receiving water body, or for direct uses, such as irrigation (see section 17.4
How are maturation pods designed to maximise the coliform removal efficiency?
in order to maximise the coliform removal efficiency, the maturation ponds are designed with one of the following two configurations: (a) three or four ponds in series or (b) a single pond with baffles
What does high DO concentration favour?
high do concentration (favouring the aerobic community, which is more efficient in the removal of coliforms, besides increasing the removal rate due to other mechanisms, such as photooxidation
high do concentration (favouring the aerobic community, which is more efficient in the removal of coliforms, besides increasing the removal rate due to other mechanisms, such as photooxidation) the maturation ponds should reach high coliform removal efficiencies (e 99.9 or 99.99 %), so that the effluent can comply with most uses of the water in the receiving water body, or for direct uses, such as irrigation (see section 17.4). in order to maximise the coliform removal efficiency, the maturation ponds are designed with one of the following two configurations: (a) three or four ponds in series or (b) a single pond with baffles. these aspects will be detailed in this chapter. regarding the other organisms of public health importance, which are not well represented by coliforms as indicators, the ponds usually reach complete 100% removalof protozoancysts and helmintheggs (arceivala,1981).themajorremoval mechanism is sedimentation.
What is characterized by the vector of random variables at each moment in time t?
for any position in space i there exists a vector of random variables at each moment in time t characterizing the conditions of the atmosphere and ocean that are relevant to economic conditions at i
For each period t, what that characterizes the distribution of states vi t [?] t that are actually realized?
for each period t there is an empirical distribution ps ci t) that characterizes the distribution of states vi t [?] t that are actually realized
What is Ci t defined to be?
define ci t to be the climate at i during t as it characterizes the distribution of possible realized states vit
here i develop a formal definition for the climate that is flexible, general, and encompasses usages throughout the literature. for any position in space i there exists a vector of random variables at each moment in time t characterizing the conditions of the atmosphere and ocean that are relevant to economic conditions at i heuristically, one could imagine this random vector as vit  temperatureit, precipitationit, humidityit,  (1) for an interval in time t t - t at i there exists a joint probability distribution ps ci t) from which we imagine vit is drawn: vit ~ ps ci t) [?] t [?] t (2) ci t is a vector of k relevant parameters--ideally sufficient statistics--indexed by k that characterizes distributions in the ps family of distributions, such as location and shape parameters. define ci t to be the climate at i during t as it characterizes the distribution of possible realized states vit. for each period t there is an empirical distribution ps ci t) that characterizes the distribution of states vi t [?] t that are actually realized. in many contexts, some of the k parameters in ci t have analogs to fitted values for a model where the distribution is constrained to the ps family, but
What seems to be the main role of adaptation of populations?
adaptation of populations, first and foremost, appears as a balance between selection for growth potential in mild climates and selection for cold tolerance in severe
What is the seemingly antithetical conclusion that their results lead?
our results also lead toward the seemingly antithetical conclusion that natural populations exist in climates that are sub-optimal to their growth and survival. still, these results are essentially the same as for p. contorta (rehfeldt et al ., 1999b), and therefore as with p. contorta the only reasonable explanation for these seemingly antithetical results is for the distribution of genotypes to be determined as much or more by competition than by adaptation to the physical environment
How is competitive exclusion initiated?
competitive exclusion is initiated by the fastest growing genotypes, which by virtue of their high growth potential, are capable of excluding genotypes of other populations from their optima (fig. 4
the results demonstrate principles of ecological genetics that are well known for plants in general (see brown gibson, 1983) and for forest trees in particular (e.g. rehfeldt, 1988, 1989): species consist of populations that differ in innate growth potential and cold hardiness, the two of which are negatively correlated. adaptation of populations, first and foremost, appears as a balance between selection for growth potential in mild climates and selection for cold tolerance in severe. while evolutionary processes undoubtedly have produced the climatypes that characterize the genetic system of p. sylvestris in eurasia, our results also lead toward the seemingly antithetical conclusion that natural populations exist in climates that are sub-optimal to their growth and survival. still, these results are essentially the same as for p. contorta (rehfeldt et al ., 1999b), and therefore as with p. contorta the only reasonable explanation for these seemingly antithetical results is for the distribution of genotypes to be determined as much or more by competition than by adaptation to the physical environment. put simply, density-dependent selection, a universal component of forest development, and selection by the physical environment are seen as the driving forces controlling the distribution of genotypes. for instance, if seeds from veshensk and surgut were dispersed across a site with 1500 degree-days 5 degc, both undoubtedly could grow superbly (fig. 3a). yet, genotypes from veshensk would be 75 cm taller after 13 years than those from surgut, and in time, therefore, the densitydependent selection that accompanies self-thinning would favor genotypes from veshensk. this means that genotypes from surgut would be competitively excluded from their climatic optima. competitive exclusion is initiated by the fastest growing genotypes, which by virtue of their high growth potential, are capable of excluding genotypes of other populations from their optima (fig. 4). as argued by arthur (1987), the realized niche becomes that part of the fundamental niche where a group of genotypes is, first, adequately adapted but, second, competitively exclusive. sexual reproduction in the face of the high levels of gene flow that typify these two wind-pollinated species disassembles in each generation those genotypes best suited for a given site. consequently, the balance between high growth potential (competitive exclusiveness) and adaptation to the climate must be reestablished each generation. asymmetric gene flow along a climatic gradient from the center of distribution toward the periphery (kirkpatrick barton, 1997; garcia-ramos kirkpatrick, 1997) couples with strong densitydependent selection to prevent populations from inhabiting their
How effective are our current arrangements?
our current institutional arrangements, both private and public, seem unlikely to be able to guarantee an eff ective and equitable policy response to the health consequences of climate change
Who should we be listening to?
our institutions of government must reach out to listen and respond to the poorest communities in ways that have not been previously achieved
What type of action should the government take?
overlapping rather than exclusive jurisdiction between levels of government is preferred, with activities at diff erent levels constituting multiple experiments from which we can learn, and safety nets to guard against inaction or unsuitable action at any level. in the usa, for example, individual states have to take actions to tackle climate change in the absence of an eff ective policy response at the federal level.145
the fi nal and overarching challenge is institutional. our current institutional arrangements, both private and public, seem unlikely to be able to guarantee an eff ective and equitable policy response to the health consequences of climate change. our institutions of government must reach out to listen and respond to the poorest communities in ways that have not been previously achieved. the institutional challenge is one of coordination with a vertical and a horizontal dimension. intervention should occur at diff erent levels of government, as appropriate to the scale of the issue. these diff erent levels of government must work together to support one another and to reinforce the positive benefi ts of intervention. overlapping rather than exclusive jurisdiction between levels of government is preferred, with activities at diff erent levels constituting multiple experiments from which we can learn, and safety nets to guard against inaction or unsuitable action at any level. in the usa, for example, individual states have to take actions to tackle climate change in the absence of an eff ective policy response at the federal level.145
What are the main qualities of CNRM-CM5?
the main qualities and shortcomings of cnrm-cm5.1 are presented in terms of preindustrial equilibrium and presentday climatology, and results are compared to those of the previous cmip3 model version referred to as cnrm-cm3
What are the main bias found in global volumetric salinity?
the main bias is found in global volumetric salinity that drifts linearly by 0.011 psu/century. we assessed though that this drift does not strongly alter ocean dynamics such as the moc. as for present-day mean climate, a clear reduction of biases in terms of surface mean temperature, sea level pressure among others is found in cnrm-cm5.1 versus cnrm-cm3
What are the effects of sulphate aerosols>
the indirect effect of sulphate aerosols has been included and stratospheric aerosols properties associated to volcanoes eruptions
the main qualities and shortcomings of cnrm-cm5.1 are presented in terms of preindustrial equilibrium and presentday climatology, and results are compared to those of the previous cmip3 model version referred to as cnrm-cm3. equilibria of the model have been considerably improved in order to ensure that the model could be used for millennium time-scale integrations. in terms of global energy, the sst model drift that is equal to 0.01  c per century is very weak. regionally, ocean water masses still have some significant biases that are due to the model performances but also to intrinsic characteristics of the physics and dynamics imposed by the spatial and vertical resolutions. the main bias is found in global volumetric salinity that drifts linearly by 0.011 psu/century. we assessed though that this drift does not strongly alter ocean dynamics such as the moc. as for present-day mean climate, a clear reduction of biases in terms of surface mean temperature, sea level pressure among others is found in cnrm-cm5.1 versus cnrm-cm3. the atmospheric large-scale circulation has been improved in many regions. major errors in seasonal precipitation and cloud radiative forcings are however still present such as the double-itcz, the critical underestimation of low clouds on the eastern side of the tropical ocean basins, or the lack of cloudiness over the northern hemisphere continents. beyond cmip5, this suggests the need to revise the convective and cloud parameterisations in cnrm-cm. in terms of ocean mean climate, biases are clearly reduced. the large-scale ocean circulation is reasonably simulated. the moc amplitude is only slightly underestimated compared to observational estimates. the representation of sea ice is also more realistic over the arctic while over the antarctic it is still critically underestimated during the austral summer. improvements of the mean present-day climate are not a guarantee that climate sensitivity is now better represented in the model. efforts have been devoted to the latter to better simulate the effect of aerosols: the indirect effect of sulphate aerosols has been included and stratospheric aerosols properties associated to volcanoes eruptions have been revised. as a perspective, fig. 18 shows the historical
HOW MUCH AREA AND COUNTRIES COVERS BY THE RHINE?
the rhine river basin covers a drainage area of about 185,000 km2and spreads over nine european countries
WHERE THE STARTS FROM THE RHINE?
the rhine river starts from the confluence of two small rivers originating in switzerland
HOW MUCH AREA RANGES FROM RHINE?
the altitude in the drainage area ranges from 4275 m.a.s.l. in swiss alps to 140
the rhine river basin covers a drainage area of about 185,000 km2and spreads over nine european countries. the rhine river starts from the confluence of two small rivers originating in switzerland, then forms the swiss-german and franco-german 4 vetter: multi-model climate impact assessment borders before flowing through germany. in its lower part it enters the netherlands where it forms an extensive delta and finally releases into the north sea. its main tributaries are the main, the neckar and the moselle. approximately two thirds of the rhine drainage basin are located in germany. the altitude in the drainage area ranges from 4275 m.a.s.l. in swiss alps to 140
water stress was related to what needs?
the rainfall requirements of evergreen conifer species from each family
what reduced sweating to stable minimum rates 20 - 30 d?
stomatal closure under conditions of sustained soil drying
what was the minimum conductance variation of leaf water vapor?
was a 30-fold
unlike xylem vulnerability (fig. 1 b ), the efficiency of stomatal closure during sustained 30 d) water stress was correlated with the rainfall requirements of evergreen conifer species from each family except araucariaceae (fig. 1 c ). in all species, stomatal closure under conditions of sustained soil drying reduced transpiration to stable minimum rates 20 - 30 d after withholding water, but there was a 30-fold range in minimum leaf water vapor conductances gmin) among the 42 conifer species examined. species with leaves that were leaky to water vapor under drought stress (high gmin) were all native to regions of high rainfall 120 mm of rain in the driest quarter), whereas species with low gmin were always native to drier environments (those experiencing 120 mm of rain in the driest quarter of the year) (fig. 1 c ). the existence of an apparent threshold requirement for gmin 5 mmol m- 2s- 1
How is REMIND-R represented?
in remind-r, trade in financial assets, represented by trade in the generic good, guarantees an intertemporal and interregional equilibrium
What can be viewed as the outcome of speculation in forward-looking asset markets?
the carbon price and the interest rate can be viewed as the outcome of speculation in forwardlooking asset markets
What is commonly the only feature in trade in energy-economy climate models?
in many energy-economy-climate models trade in permits is the only feature of international trade
e t, r, c <= q t, r - xp t, r mp t, r [?] t, r. (12) in remind-r, trade in financial assets, represented by trade in the generic good, guarantees an intertemporal and interregional equilibrium. the carbon price and the interest rate can be viewed as the outcome of speculation in forwardlooking asset markets. models omitting trade in financial assets cannot derive a full intertemporal equilibrium in capital and simultaneously in other markets. in many energy-economy-climate models trade in permits is the only feature of international trade. welfare improvements by the reallocation of capital or the reallocation of mitigation efforts over regions or time are possible in these models when intertemporal efficiency is violated. in contrast to this model design, remind-r derives a benchmark for a first-best intertemporal optimum in all markets.
What does , the chapter entitled 'Traditional Knowledge for Adaptation' in  the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) specifically study?
this study draws attention to the extensive and detailed knowledge of arctic peoples regarding their natural environment, including natural resources
What were the findings of the above report?( 'Traditional Knowledge for Adaptation' in  the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report (AR4))
it pointed out that indigenous peoples' knowledge is increasingly valued as a complement to scientific knowledge as it expands and deepens understanding of vulnerability and offers additional opportunities to set in place appropriate measures for climate change adaptation
What was the positive outcome of the  publication of the AR4?
since publication of the ar4, an abundance of research based on indigenous knowledge has been conducted throughout the circumpolar north, notably
in the ipcc's fourth assessment report (ar4), the chapter dedicated to polar regions includes a specific case study (15.6.1) entitled 'traditional knowledge for adaptation'. this study draws attention to the extensive and detailed knowledge of arctic peoples regarding their natural environment, including natural resources. it pointed out that indigenous peoples' knowledge is increasingly valued as a complement to scientific knowledge as it expands and deepens understanding of vulnerability and offers additional opportunities to set in place appropriate measures for climate change adaptation. since publication of the ar4, an abundance of research based on indigenous knowledge has been conducted throughout the circumpolar north, notably
How much of the population could be affected by sea level rise in the future?
in the future, sea level rise could affect an additional 16 percent of the population
What two slow-onset events affect the Nile Delta?
in egypt slow-onset events like sea level rise and desertification affect the nile delta
The two most productive zones in Egypt are where?
the most productive zones in egypt are the nile delta and nile valley
in egypt slow-onset events like sea level rise and desertification affect the nile delta.93 the total area of the arab republic of egypt is about one million km2, most of which has an arid and hyper-arid climate. the most productive zones in egypt are the nile delta and nile valley (3 percent of the total land). projected increases in sea levels will pressure a quickly growing population into more concentrated areas. desertification and soil degradation claim large swaths of land on the eastern and western nile delta. large swaths of land may be rendered unusable by the dual climate change-related forces of desertification and sea level rise. in the future, sea level rise could affect an additional 16 percent of the population.94
Which have  diseases emerged in Europe in recent years?
in recent years, numerous vector-borne and other zoonotic diseases have emerged or re-emerged in europe
the scientifi c discussion meeting in greifswald, germany (appendix 1), evaluated research fi ndings documenting the impact of climate change on communicable diseases for human and animal health. in recent years, numerous vector-borne and other zoonotic diseases have emerged or re-emerged in europe (jones et al. 2008) with major health and socio-economic consequences5. there is growing evidence that these new threats can be associated with global and local changes, resulting from climate infl uences (hotter summers, warmer winters, varying precipitation patterns). these changes can be either abrupt and unanticipated or gradual and protracted. as detailed in appendix 1, presenters at the greifswald meeting provided case-study analysis of a wide range of human infectious diseases that pose a current or future threat to europe: rodent-borne viruses (for example, hantaviruses), arboviral diseases (for example, tbe, chikungunya, wnf) and parasitic diseases (for example, dirofi liarasis and leishmaniasis). there was also extensive discussion of infectious diseases in domesticated animals, in particular that caused by btv, but also rift valley fever (rvf) and african swine fever (asv), and of the potential importance of wildlife hosts as a reservoir for infection. the appearance and spread of human and animal diseases can, in some cases, be associated with specifi c changes in vector, host or pathogen populations,
The available literature provades limited guidance for what?
unfortunately, available literature provides limited guidance on the design of complementary r&d instruments
Is it clear which instrument among, for instance, research subsidies, strengthened patent rules, or technology prizes, is most efficient?
it is not clear which instrument among, for instance, research subsidies, strengthened patent rules, or technology prizes, is most efficient, as this depends on the magnitude of technology spillovers, the scope for monopoly pricing under patents, and asymmetric information between governments and firms about the expected benefits and costs of research (e.g., wright 1983
unfortunately, available literature provides limited guidance on the design of complementary r&d instruments. it is not clear which instrument among, for instance, research subsidies, strengthened patent rules, or technology prizes, is most efficient, as this depends on the magnitude of technology spillovers, the scope for monopoly pricing under patents, and asymmetric information between governments and firms about the expected benefits and costs of research (e.g., wright 1983). and just how much or how fast we should be pushing applied r&d is also unclear, given uncertainty about the likelihood that research will lead to viable technologies and the potential for short-term crowding out of other socially valuable research elsewhere in the economy (e.g., nordhaus 2002; goulder and schneider 1999).
What is nuclear energy?
a scalable source that can supply a reasonable fraction of future energy needs
What can nuclear energy be easily integrated into?
the exiting electricity generation and distribution infrastructure
Where is biomass extensively used?
in rural communities in developing countries to provide thermal energy
nuclear energy is a scalable source that can supply a reasonable fraction of future energy needs and can be easily integrated into the exiting electricity generation and distribution infrastructure. concerns over waste management and storage; weapon proliferation and the public perception of safety should be addressed before substantial expansion of nuclear power plants can be expected. as shown next, hydraulic power, which contributes a signi fi cant fraction of renewable electricity, is near its peak, and has its own share of environmental problems. other sources of renewable energy have much lower energy and power density than fossil and nuclear energy, and are characterized by high but varying degrees of intermittency.22biomass is used extensively in rural communities in developing countries to provide thermal energy. more recently, efforts to produce liquid transportation fuels from certain biomass feedstock have intensi fi ed, but the potential of biomass energy is limited by land and water resources. the most signi fi cant renewable sources are wind and solar energy, and to some extend geothermal sources, but many technical and economic challenges remain.
Is the pace at which modern capitalistic societies are emitting CO2 increasing or decreasing?
since modern capitalist societies are emitting co2 into the atmosphere at an extraordinary and escalating pace, it is important to understand what happens to carbon when it enters the atmosphere
How long can CO2 remain in the atmosphere?
co2 has a long atmospheric lifetime, remaining in the atmosphere for up to 120 years
What natural areas are able to absorb CO2?
oceans and forests serve as natural sinks, absorbing large quantities of co2
since modern capitalist societies are emitting co2 into the atmosphere at an extraordinary and escalating pace, it is important to understand what happens to carbon when it enters the atmosphere. co2 has a long atmospheric lifetime, remaining in the atmosphere for up to 120 years.114as described earlier, carbon has an established cycle, where it moves through the biosphere, being absorbed by plants, to be used in the production of carbohydrates before being released back into the atmosphere through a variety of pathways. oceans and forests serve as natural sinks, absorbing large quantities of co2. the creation of a rift at one point in a cycle (i.e., the accumulation of co2 in the atmosphere) can generate system-wide crises. the gravity of the situation in regard to the carbon cycle in the current historical era is that capitalism is disrupting the carbon cycle at two points, further complicating matters. the circulation of carbon and the stabilization of it within certain parameters depend on the availability of carbon sinks and their ability to absorb co2. the oceans and forests are the largest and primary sinks for co2, but the amount of co2 in the atmosphere has exceeded the capacity of nature to absorb these gases. thus, the sinks may be approaching the limits of their capacity to sequester carbon, as environmental destruction throughout the world degrades and depletes them. the oceans influence the concentration of co2 in the atmosphere, as the gas is continuously exchanged at the surface. in the water,
Which fastest-growing food production activities in the country.?
aquaculture
How does affect salmon?
temperature changes affect salmon directly, through impacts on growth, survival and reproduction, as well as indirectly, through effects on predator-prey dynamics and habitat
Wich the most significant impacts of future climate change on Arctic marine ecosystems?
to result from changes in sea-ice cover. a decrease in sea-ice cover would affect marine productivity, fish distribution and fishing practices (e.g., accessibility to sites, safety), as well as marine mammals. in fact, there is growing evidence that climate change has already begun to affect fisheries and marine mammals along the arctic coast
canadian fisheries, which encompass the atlantic, pacific and arctic oceans, as well as the world's largest freshwater system, are both economically and culturally important to canada. within each region, commercial, recreational and subsistence fisheries play a significant, though varying role. shellfish are currently the most valuable commercial catch; salmon is a vital component of subsistence and recreational fisheries; and aquaculture is one of the fastest-growing food production activities in the country. considerable shifts have been observed in marine ecosystems over recent decades, and much of the recent research has been dedicated to assessing the role of climate in these changes. climate change is expected to have significant impacts on fish populations and sustainable harvests. fish have a distinct set of environmental conditions under which they experience optimal growth, reproduction and survival. as conditions change in response to a changing climate, fish would be impacted both directly and indirectly. impacts would stem primarily from changes in water temperature, water levels, ice cover, extreme events, diseases and shifts in predatorprey dynamics. the key concerns for fisheries vary in different regions of the country. along the pacific coast, drastic declines in the salmon catch during the 1980s and 1990s, as well as the importance of salmon to west coast fisheries, have resulted in research being focused primarily on salmon. temperature changes affect salmon directly, through impacts on growth, survival and reproduction, as well as indirectly, through effects on predator-prey dynamics and habitat. changes in river flows and extreme climate events have also been shown to affect salmon survival and production. marine ecosystems along the atlantic coast also experienced significant changes in the 1990s, with shellfish replacing groundfish as the most valuable catch. although this shift was driven primarily by fishing practices, climatic changes likely played a role. future warming trends may impact the shellfish populations on which the region now relies. for example, water temperature has been shown to have a strong influence on snow crab reproduction and distribution. there is also concern that the frequency and intensity of toxic algal blooms, which can cause shellfish poisoning, may increase. other important issues for the atlantic region include the effects of climate change on salmon and aquaculture operations. the most significant impacts of future climate change on arctic marine ecosystems are expected to result from changes in sea-ice cover. a decrease in sea-ice cover would affect marine productivity, fish distribution and fishing practices (e.g., accessibility to sites, safety), as well as marine mammals. in fact, there is growing evidence that climate change has already begun to affect fisheries and marine mammals along the arctic coast. for example, declines in polar bear condition and births in
What were survey participants asked to do?
survey participants were asked to reflect on each scenario as a holistic package of environmental changes and consider whether they would still visit wlnp if the identified changes occurred, and, if so, whether they would visit more or less frequently. participants were also asked whether they would visit a mountain park other than wlnp if the types and magnitude of longterm environmental changes identified for wlnp were not occurring elsewhere (i.e. destination substitution
Were participants allowed to respond differently to individual potential changes?
participants could not respond differently to individual potential changes (i.e. warmer lake temperatures were desirable, but loss of glaciers was unacceptable
Why were the participants not informed of the time period that each environmental change scenario represented?
this was done to avoid biasing the participant's responses (e.g. 'i will not be alive in 2080, so these impacts are less important or will not change my intention to visit
unlike richardson and loomis (2004) who examined implications of potential environmental changes into the 2020s, this study continued to further examine how projected climate change into the 2050s and 2080s might affect tourist behavior. survey participants were asked to reflect on each scenario as a holistic package of environmental changes and consider whether they would still visit wlnp if the identified changes occurred, and, if so, whether they would visit more or less frequently. participants were also asked whether they would visit a mountain park other than wlnp if the types and magnitude of longterm environmental changes identified for wlnp were not occurring elsewhere (i.e. destination substitution). participants could not respond differently to individual potential changes (i.e. warmer lake temperatures were desirable, but loss of glaciers was unacceptable). the scenarios provided in the survey instrument are presented in fig. 1 the presentation of the environmental change scenarios in the visitor survey was similar to richardson and loomis (2004) to provide consistency for comparison of results and because pre-tests suggested that graphics and numerical change estimates would be easier for respondents to interpret than a detailed text-based scenario. the participants in the wlnp survey were not informed of the time period that each environmental change scenario represented (i.e. changes under the warmest climate change scenario for the 2020s, 2050s or 2080s). this was done to avoid biasing the participant's responses (e.g. 'i will not be alive in 2080, so these impacts are less important or will not change my intention to visit'). before the survey was
What was blamed after poor agricultural performances by many African farmers?
poor agricultural performances by many african farmers has been blamed on lack of information and resources (archer et al. 2005
What should adaptation policy measures consider to help farmers respond to change in climate?
adaptation policy measures need to consider how information concerning adaptive measures, forecasts, and production cycles can best reach farmers to help them respond to changes in climate
failure to implement adaptation options and poor agricultural performances by many african farmers has been blamed on lack of information and resources (archer et al. 2005). southern africa for example, has early warning units and meteorological departments, but the information does not reach all intended users (archer et al. 2005). adaptation policy measures need to consider how information concerning adaptive measures, forecasts, and production cycles can best reach farmers to help them respond to changes in climate. climate change policy measures regarding information need to put in place information pathways that ensure that important climate change information is timely disseminated to the farmers. improving the adaptive capacity of disadvantaged communities requires ensuring access to resources, income generation activities, greater equity between genders and social groups, and an increase in the capacity of the poor to participate in local politics and actions (iisd 2006). thus, furthering adaptive capacity is in line with general sustainable development and policies that help reduce pressure on resources reduce environmental risks, and increase the welfare of the poorest members of the society. the empirical estimation of the determinants of adaptation strategies takes into account the various issues and factors raised in the discussion above. some of these factors are considered as explanatory variables in the model to help assess their impact on the propensity of adoption of various adaptation strategies. examples of factors considered include farmer education level, access to markets and information (extension services) and other household characteristics that are discussed in the empirical estimation section below.
Describe biophysical model?
our biophysical model accurately predicted fine-scale variation in the temperature of a small lizard-sized object under complex natural conditions supporting information (si) methods
Where did the model be used?
we used this model to examine the frequency distributions of expected daytime body temperatures of a small (5 g) ectotherm throughout the year at 3 climatically distinct sites within australia: a coastal tropical site (darwin), an arid continental site (alice springs), and a coastal temperate site (melbourne
Describe the consequences of 3 different behavioral scenarios ?
the consequences of 3 different behavioral scenarios are illustrated: i sitting passively on the surface in full sun, ii sitting passively on the surface in deep (90%) shade, or iii actively thermoregulating from 20-40 degc (targeting a preferred temperature of 33 degc whenever possible) by moving in and out of shade or retreating below ground as a last resort
our biophysical model accurately predicted fine-scale variation in the temperature of a small lizard-sized object under complex natural conditions supporting information (si) methods figs. s1 and s2 and table s1 ]. it also provides good correspondence with empirical data on potential and actual lizard body temperatures and activity patterns in tropical and temperate environments across different seasons si methods fig. s3 ). we used this model to examine the frequency distributions of expected daytime body temperatures of a small (5 g) ectotherm throughout the year at 3 climatically distinct sites within australia: a coastal tropical site (darwin), an arid continental site (alice springs), and a coastal temperate site (melbourne) (fig. 1). the consequences of 3 different behavioral scenarios are illustrated: i sitting passively on the surface in full sun, ii sitting passively on the surface in deep (90%) shade, or iii actively thermoregulating from 20-40 degc (targeting a preferred temperature of 33 degc whenever possible) by moving in and out of shade or retreating below ground as a last resort (fig. 1). this approach provides a means to determine the
What is the scope and nature of study mentioned here?
effects of conspecific krummholz individuals on seedling survival and growth at the pyrenean alpine tree line. we aim to quantify the role of two potential bottlenecks for successful recruitment within the tree line ecotone that can modulate tree line dynamics in response to climate warming
How did the researchers address the issue of the effects of conspecific krummholz individuals on seedling survival and growth at the Pyrenean alpine tree line. ?
to address these issues we: (1) analysed the substrate and vegetation cover of naturally established seedlings; (2) quantified the distance of the seedlings to shelter elements (stones, microtopographic shelters and shrubs) that potentially provide safe microsite conditions for tree establishment; and (3) transplanted seedlings in the field to study positive interactions by potential 'nurse' krummholz
What is one of the mechanisms responsible for positive-feedback processes at the tree line mentioned here?
we intend to provide empirical evidence of the extent of the facilitative effects of wind-driven snowpack accumulation near krummholz mats on seedling survival and growth, which may be among the mechanisms responsible for positive-feedback processes at the tree line
ram. ex dc. and test the effects of conspecific krummholz individuals on seedling survival and growth at the pyrenean alpine tree line. we aim to quantify the role of two potential bottlenecks for successful recruitment within the tree line ecotone that can modulate tree line dynamics in response to climate warming. to address these issues we: (1) analysed the substrate and vegetation cover of naturally established seedlings; (2) quantified the distance of the seedlings to shelter elements (stones, microtopographic shelters and shrubs) that potentially provide safe microsite conditions for tree establishment; and (3) transplanted seedlings in the field to study positive interactions by potential 'nurse' krummholz. we intend to provide empirical evidence of the extent of the facilitative effects of wind-driven snowpack accumulation near krummholz mats on seedling survival and growth, which may be among the mechanisms responsible for positive-feedback processes at the tree line.
what two concerns are focussed in this research?
the two topics are therefore closely linked and are covered together in this paper, which focuses on research relevant to two concerns: (1) forest harvesting may change riparian microclimate and have an impact on aquatic and terrestrial habitat; and (2) forest harvesting, particularly with removal of riparian vegetation, may result in stream heating or other changes in water temperature that could have deleterious effects on aquatic organisms
what does the coventional approach states?
the conventional approach to minimizing the effects of forest harvesting on streams and their riparian zones is to retain a forested buffer strip along the stream
state some examples?
for example, in british columbia, buffer strips are not required along nonfish bearing streams unless they are a designated community water supply, and buffer strips are not mandatory along the fish bearing streams
riparian microclimate and stream temperature are critical factors in relation to habitat conditions in and near streams and are governed by the interactions of energy and water exchanges within the riparian zone. riparian microclimate sets the boundary conditions for many of the energy exchanges that influence stream temperature, while stream temperature sets one of the boundary conditions for riparian microclimate. the two topics are therefore closely linked and are covered together in this paper, which focuses on research relevant to two concerns: (1) forest harvesting may change riparian microclimate and have an impact on aquatic and terrestrial habitat; and (2) forest harvesting, particularly with removal of riparian vegetation, may result in stream heating or other changes in water temperature that could have deleterious effects on aquatic organisms. despite decades of research on stream temperature response to forest harvesting, there are still vigorous debates in the pacific northwest about the thermal impacts of forestry and how to manage them (e.g., larson and larson, 1996; beschta, 1997; ice et al., 2004; johnson, 2004). the conventional approach to minimizing the effects of forest harvesting on streams and their riparian zones is to retain a forested buffer strip along the stream. most jurisdictions in the pacific northwest require buffer strips to be left along larger (usually fish bearing) streams (young, 2000). however, less protection is afforded to smaller, nonfish-bearing streams. for example, in british columbia, buffer strips are not required along nonfish bearing streams unless they are a designated community water supply, and buffer strips are not mandatory along the fish bearing streams whose
In what season is Kazakhstan concerned with ensuring access to enough river water for irrigation?
it is primarily concerned with ensuring access to sufficient amounts of river water for irrigation in the summer
Which country controls the main water storage capacity of the Nile?
in the nile, for instance, there is a rather strong downstream hegemony. the downstream country (egypt) is the militarily and economically most powerful country in the system, and it also controls the main water storage capacity
Which country is the most powerful country in the Euphrates-Tigris system?
in the euphrates-tigris, the upstream country (turkey) is also the most powerful country in the system and in control of the main reservoirs
kazakhstan too, being the most downstream country in the syr darya, faces several inter-related water challenges. similarly to mid-stream uzbekistan, it is primarily concerned with ensuring access to sufficient amounts of river water for irrigation in the summer, and with controlled low-flow in the winter months for effective flood control. moreover, kazakhstan is very concerned with river water quality since a large fraction of its population in the catchment uses the river water for household purposes. as the river accumulates total dissolved solids and pesticides and herbicides from irrigation drainage return flows (mainly from the cotton fields in uzbekistan), and as its waters have become ever more allocated along the flow path, maintaining river water quality targets has become increasingly difficult for kazakhstan in recent years (shalpykova, 2002). the syr darya setting is in fact quite unique in comparison to other prominent international water catchments that appear conflict prone. in the nile, for instance, there is a rather strong downstream hegemony. the downstream country (egypt) is the militarily and economically most powerful country in the system, and it also controls the main water storage capacity (aswan dam) (howell allan, 1994; zeitoun warner, 2006). in the euphrates-tigris, the upstream country (turkey) is also the most powerful country in the system and in control of the main reservoirs (daoudy, 2009; kibarogvlu, 2002). the syr darya setting is arguably less hegemonic and thus potentially more unstable politically; the dominant economic and military powers (uzbekistan and kazakhstan), which also face the most severe water security risks, are located downstream, whereas the upstream country is in almost total physical control of the catchment's runoff.8
What are the changes of impacts of worldwide vehicle emissions in 2030 compared with 2000?
changes are shown under the baseline (left side by region) and tight-standard scenarios (yellow, right side by region
What negative valuations indicate?
negative valuations indicate savings
It is possible differences between scenarios?
much of the uncertainty is systematic, so differences between scenarios can be significant even if uncertainty ranges for the two scenarios overlap (see supplementary information
impacts of worldwide vehicle emissions in 2030 compared with 2000. a - d changes are shown under the baseline (left side by region) and tight-standard scenarios (yellow, right side by region). negative valuations indicate savings. ranges include the estimated forcing uncertainty on the basis of published observations and modelling results a ~ 67% confidence interval (ci); see supplementary information), uncertainty due to concentration-response relationships only b health; d health valuation; 95% ci) and uncertainty due to concentration-response metrics c crops; for crop valuation see supplementary information). much of the uncertainty is systematic, so differences between scenarios can be significant even if uncertainty ranges for the two scenarios overlap (see supplementary information).
According to the author, what does the Stern report provide and give?
in summary, the stern report framework provides a useful coat hanger on which to examine the economics of climate change. but it is open to challenge in respect of its main components: the damage is likely to be greater and so are the costs of mitigation. the impacts on economic growth rates are likely to be more severe. we will not, therefore, be as well off in the future as we would have been on the basis of the 2-3 per cent gdp compound growth rates. what the stern report does is give a very conventional analysis, which points away from doing much about climate change now, only to rescue its conclusion with a dose of highly debatable moral philosophy
Does the author agree with its (Stern Report) main components?
but it is open to challenge in respect of its main components: the damage is likely to be greater and so are the costs of mitigation. the impacts on economic growth rates are likely to be more severe. we will not, therefore, be as well off in the future as we would have been on the basis of the 2-3 per cent gdp compound growth rates. what the stern report does is give a very conventional analysis, which points away from doing much about climate change now, only to rescue its conclusion with a dose of highly debatable moral philosophy. what remains, however, is the conclusion--that we should take urgent action now--which is correct, but for reasons almost entirely diametrically opposite to those of the stern report
in summary, the stern report framework provides a useful coat hanger on which to examine the economics of climate change. but it is open to challenge in respect of its main components: the damage is likely to be greater and so are the costs of mitigation. the impacts on economic growth rates are likely to be more severe. we will not, therefore, be as well off in the future as we would have been on the basis of the 2-3 per cent gdp compound growth rates. what the stern report does is give a very conventional analysis, which points away from doing much about climate change now, only to rescue its conclusion with a dose of highly debatable moral philosophy. what remains, however, is the conclusion--that we should take urgent action now--which is correct, but for reasons almost entirely diametrically opposite to those of the stern report. what makes action necessary now is that, contrary to the stern report, there are good reasons for believing that the substitution of man-made capital to compensate for the damage to the environment (including climate change and its environmental consequences for biodiversity) is not unity, but rather less, and probably declining. the fat tail of more rapid and damaging climate change lurks, like the hidden underside of an iceberg.
Why did the residents of Farka move to Care?
soil degradation has made crop cultivation impossible
Are these migrants likely to stay where they are?
currently in care we are suffering from similar problems and might therefore leave the village for another as well
Besides soil degradation, what other factor affected the harvest in Farka?
the harvest got completely unreliable due to the rain fall shortage and soil degradation
rather than returning after migrating, the trend goes in the opposite direction.69 people increasingly migrate step-by-step in pursuit of environments that will support them. the residents of the village care in the tilaberi region of niger is now home to migrants from another village called farka where soil degradation has made crop cultivation impossible. a migrant remarked: "we were farmers in farka, but the production level worsened too much and the harvest got completely unreliable due to the rain fall shortage and soil degradation. we had no alternative revenues. therefore, we had to flee this village in the year 1987...there is no other reason why we left the original village; if this deterioration in the land quality had not happened, we would have stayed. currently in care we are suffering from similar problems and might therefore leave the village for another as well. we have never planned to leave, but we just 'crept' after our living."70
What should future studies seek to identify?
which of the range of adaptation options outlined in this paper are available to the ski areas being examined and discuss how adaptation would alter the projected impacts
What two adaptations are identified as necessary for winter tourism to adjust to climate change?
supplyand demand-side
Which of these is identified by the author as a "critical knowledge gap?" Provide the example used in the reading.
demand-side adaptation. regional studies of the response of skiers to previous climate change analogue events and their stated responses to hypothetical climate change scenarios are required
the next generation of climate change studies on the international ski industry must consider supply-side adaptation in order to better understand the sustainability of the winter sports tourism product. minimally, future studies need to identify which of the range of adaptation options outlined in this paper are available to the ski areas being examined and discuss how adaptation would alter the projected impacts. methodologies have been developed so that snowmaking should be incorporated into ski season analysis (see scott et al. 2003 2006 in the future. accounting for the adaptive capacity of ski areas with different business models will be a greater methodological challenge, but is required in order to be able to answer key questions about changes in the competitive relationships in regional winter sports tourism marketplaces (and related real estate developments) and the future of the major skiing destinations. the other critical knowledge gap which must be addressed with regard to climate change adaptation in the winter sports tourism industry is demand-side adaptation. regional studies of the response of skiers to previous climate change analogue events and their stated responses to hypothetical climate change scenarios are required. only when supplyand demand-side adaptation are incorporated into vulnerability assessments will the complexity of local and regional economic impacts of climate change on winter sports tourism be more accurately understood.
How can we prevent obesity?
a disconnect between the real cause and perceived cause, or between what might truly prevent obesity and perceptions of best approaches can lead to inequities, such as weight bias, and diversion from actions that could improve public health
What it is the government doing to prevent obesity?
the food industry and our current government want to focus on encouraging individuals to think about "calories in and calories out" and taking "small steps" to change
what is the most important step to approach the obesity?
how the obesity issue is framed is of the utmost importance to how it is addressed. who or what is perceived as responsible for the genesis of obesity is a prime determinant of how obese individuals are received by society and what actions are considered appropriate for both treatment and prevention
how the obesity issue is framed is of the utmost importance to how it is addressed. who or what is perceived as responsible for the genesis of obesity is a prime determinant of how obese individuals are received by society and what actions are considered appropriate for both treatment and prevention. a disconnect between the real cause and perceived cause, or between what might truly prevent obesity and perceptions of best approaches can lead to inequities, such as weight bias, and diversion from actions that could improve public health.10 we risk investing time, money, and effort into interventions based on the belief that obesity is a matter of personal responsibility, and risk missing the opportunity to make environmental changes that will have a greater impact. historically, obesity has been blamed on the individual. it is still the case today that a failure of "personal responsibility" is evoked as obesity's cause, and imploring individuals to change is often the implicit and explicit solution. a key struggle is occurring between public health experts and the food industry and its political supporters. public health experts want to focus on changing environmental factors that promote better health.11 the food industry and our current government want to focus on encouraging individuals to think about "calories in and calories out" and taking "small steps" to change.12
What is a continuous-flow complete-mix reactor?
homogenous concentration of biomass and substrate in all the reactor volume
What is one of the characteristics of the ideal complete-mix reactor?
the effluent leaves with the same concentration as in the liquid in any part of the reactor
What are essential for design and operational control of the biological reactor?
o mass balances can be done, one for the substrate and the other for the biomass
the interactions that occur in a continuous-flow complete-mix reactor (homogenous concentration of biomass and substrate in all the reactor volume) without recirculation can be represented schematically as in figure 9.10. one of the characteristics of the ideal complete-mix reactor is that the effluent leaves with the same concentration as in the liquid in any part of the reactor. this implies that the values of s and x are the same in the reactor, as well as in the effluent. x is the concentration of the solids. in the reactor, these solids are mainly biological solids, represented by the biomass (microorganisms) produced in the reactor at the expense of the available substrate. in contrast, in the influent to the reactor, the solids are those present in the wastewater, and the presence of biological solids is frequently neglected in the general mass balance. for simplicity, it is usually considered that x0 0 mg/l (although this assumption does not apply in all situations). two mass balances can be done, one for the substrate and the other for the biomass. these mass balances are essential for design and operational control of the biological reactor, and are detailed in this section.
That exists for many communities?
for many communities, however, there is a marked disconnect between public policies and traditional knowledge-based adaptation
What initiative can government programs take?
government programmes may take initiative out of the hands of the people engaged at the community level
How can government programs be successful?
policies that encourage collaborative efforts where indigenous communities are directly involved in defining priority concerns and information needs are more likely to succeed
for many communities, however, there is a marked disconnect between public policies and traditional knowledge-based adaptation. at present, deliberations on policy responses to climate change are typically restricted to the national level. but national strategies developed and implemented by governmental agencies are often not conducive to indigenous efforts to adapt to climate change, which are rooted in local knowledge, sustainable livelihoods and community-based innovation. government programmes may take initiative out of the hands of the people engaged at the community level. policies that encourage collaborative efforts where indigenous communities are directly involved in defining priority concerns and information needs are more likely to succeed.
Where has occupational health and safety concentrated?
occupational health and safety (oh&s) interventions have centred on controlling the physical work environment and work procedures of employees in an effort to prevent errors and accidents
How does occupational health and safety (OH&S)  control the physical work environment?
documentation of detailed procedures designed to provide the safest way of completing tasks, procedures for handing over uncompleted tasks to colleagues, strict safety guidelines for the operation of machinery, and the wearing of personal protective equipment
traditionally, occupational health and safety (oh&s) interventions have centred on controlling the physical work environment and work procedures of employees in an effort to prevent errors and accidents. examples include the documentation of detailed procedures designed to provide the safest way of completing tasks, procedures for handing over uncompleted tasks to colleagues, strict safety guidelines for the operation of machinery, and the wearing of personal protective equipment. a complementary approach to human error focuses on the human factors in work accidents. this approach takes into account the inevitability of human error and seeks to contextualise behaviour so that a greater understanding can be realised. where strict procedural guidelines attempt to mechanise and standardise behaviour, a human factors perspective acknowledges individual differences and focuses on psychological pressures and factors that influence behaviour. the present study is concerned with the human factors that contribute to violations in aviation maintenance. much of our previous research in this area (e.g., fogarty, saunders, collyer, 2001) has been based on safety climate surveys and the analysis of relations among core dimensions of climate. in this study, we tap into mainstream psychological theory to help clarify the mechanisms underlying the links between climate and behaviour. specifically, it will be argued that ajzen's (1988) theory of planned behaviour can be applied to unsafe behaviour in the workplace. we will demonstrate the usefulness of this model by applying it to safety climate data derived from aircraft maintenance workers in the australian defence force (adf).
What is a category?
type/category of barrier or limit explanation what kind of barrier? illustrative examples outside support will overcome problems institutional and governance (links to discursive, political, social and cultural) (cross-scale
What is type?
type/category of barrier or limit explanation what kind of barrier? illustrative examples outside support will overcome problems institutional and governance (links to discursive, political, social and cultural) (cross-scale
Barrier of limit means?
type/category of barrier or limit explanation what kind of barrier? illustrative examples outside support will overcome problems institutional and governance (links to discursive, political, social and cultural) (cross-scale
type/category of barrier or limit explanation what kind of barrier? illustrative examples outside support will overcome problems institutional and governance (links to discursive, political, social and cultural) (cross-scale) relates to the how the organisation and structure of interactions and institutions influence how social actors are prevented or enabled to adapt institutional inequities and social discrimination restrict access to key resources and assets needed to adapt; lack of institutional flexibility; poor policy and poor coordination and cooperation between sectors/actors; poor disaster preparedness and poorly organized responses to hazards; lack of secure tenure; weak institutional structure; institutional instability; inconsistent and unstable policies; poor managerial skills; top-down, culturally insensitive, one fits all approaches to planned adaptation; lack of attention to contextual settings information and knowledge (links to cognitive) relates to knowledge and information which is needed to make decisions, understand what to expect and to choose and evaluate options and technologies lack of access to quality information and transfer of knowledge; inadequate packaging of climate information for different user groups; lack of and uncertain information on cost and benefits of large scale and long-term investments such as coastal protection measures; structured ignorance; lack of information on possible response strategies; lack of skills and trained personnel
In which school does Professor Gwyn Prins work?
professor gwyn prins, mackinder programme for the study of long wave events, london school of economics political science
Which corporation does Hiroyuki Tezuka works for?
germany hiroyuki tezuka general manager, climate change policy group, jfe steel corporation (on behalf of japan iron and steel federation), japan
Does professor Steve Rayner teach in the University of Oxford?
usa professor steve rayner, institute for science, innovation and society, university of oxford
professor gwyn prins, mackinder programme for the study of long wave events, london school of economics political science, england isabel galiana, department of economics gec3, mcgill university, canada professor christopher green, department of economics, mcgill university, canada dr reiner grundmann, school of languages social sciences, aston university, england professor mike hulme, school of environmental sciences, university of east anglia, england professor atte korhola, department of environmental sciences/ division of environmental change and policy, university of helsinki, finland professor frank laird, josef korbel school of international studies, university of denver, usa ted nordhaus, the breakthrough institute, oakland, california, usa professor roger pielke jnr, center for science and technology policy research, university of colorado, usa professor steve rayner, institute for science, innovation and society, university of oxford, england professor daniel sarewitz, consortium for science, policy and outcomes, arizona state university, usa michael shellenberger, the breakthrough institute, oakland, california, usa professor nico stehr, karl mannheim chair for cultural studies, zeppelin university, germany hiroyuki tezuka general manager, climate change policy group, jfe steel corporation (on behalf of japan iron and steel federation), japan
In which areas is the atmospheric system calculated?
calculation of the atmospheric composition in nonurban areas, the above atmospheric dynamics and physics model is linked to a detailed 2d zonal mean model of atmospheric chemistry
With what are atmospheric chemical reactions simulated?
the atmospheric chemical reactions are thus simulated in two separate modules
Atmospheric chemistry reactions are used in which modules?
one for the 2d model grids and one for the subgrid-scale urban chemistry
to calculate atmospheric composition, the model of atmospheric chemistry includes an analysis of the climaterelevant reactive gases and aerosols at urban scales coupled to a model of the processing of exported pollutants from urban areas (plus the emissions from nonurban areas) at the regional to global scale. for calculation of the atmospheric composition in nonurban areas, the above atmospheric dynamics and physics model is linked to a detailed 2d zonal mean model of atmospheric chemistry. the atmospheric chemical reactions are thus simulated in two separate modules: one for the 2d model grids and one for the subgrid-scale urban chemistry.
What does the UNFCCC estimate?
the unfccc estimates of adaptation cost are broadly in line with preceding studies published by the world bank, oxfam, undp, and in the stern report
How have UNFCCC summarised?
these have recently been summarised by the oecd
How have been the conclusions met?
but that would be misleading because: (i) none of these are substantive studies, (ii) they are not independent studies but borrow heavily from each other, and (iii) they have not been tested by peer review in the scientific or economics literature
the unfccc estimates of adaptation cost are broadly in line with preceding studies published by the world bank, oxfam, undp, and in the stern report. these have recently been summarised by the oecd and are given in table 1. since these studies appear to support each other, the conclusion has sometimes been made that there exists a comforting convergence of evidence, but that would be misleading because: (i) none of these are substantive studies, (ii) they are not independent studies but borrow heavily from each other, and (iii) they have not been tested by peer review in the scientific or economics literature.
What are the ways to use carbon policy revenues?
more generally, there are many ways that carbon policy revenues might be used, such as funding technology programs, climate adaptation projects, deficit reduction, energy efficiency programs, rebates to electricity consumers, and any number of complex adjustments to the tax system
What a way to avoid the unequal effect?
somewhat tilted toward lowerincome groups, to offset the effect of their disproportionately higher budget shares for energy goods (e.g., metcalf 2009). as regards political feasibility, compensation for adversely affected industries
Describe law cuts with carbon policies?
therefore, unless legislation accompanying carbon policies specifies offsetting reductions in other distortionary taxes, whether and to what extent this shift implies a large reduction in the costs of carbon policies is unclear. distributional considerations the distributional impacts of emissions control policies are potentially important for both equity and political feasibility. on equity grounds, the difference between (revenue-neutral) co2 taxes/auctioned allowances and freely allocated allowance systems can also be quite striking
more generally, there are many ways that carbon policy revenues might be used, such as funding technology programs, climate adaptation projects, deficit reduction, energy efficiency programs, rebates to electricity consumers, and any number of complex adjustments to the tax system, though the efficiency implications of these recycling options have received little attention in the literature. although in recent years there has been a dramatic shift away from free to largely auctioned permit systems in actual and proposed carbon policies, in some cases it is unclear how the revenues will be spent.21 therefore, unless legislation accompanying carbon policies specifies offsetting reductions in other distortionary taxes, whether and to what extent this shift implies a large reduction in the costs of carbon policies is unclear. distributional considerations the distributional impacts of emissions control policies are potentially important for both equity and political feasibility. on equity grounds, the difference between (revenue-neutral) co2 taxes/auctioned allowances and freely allocated allowance systems can also be quite striking. under the latter policy, permit rents are reflected in higher firm equity values, and therefore (through dividend and capital gains income) ultimately accrue to shareholders, who are concentrated in upper income groups. in fact, dinan and rogers (2002) estimated that, for a 15 percent reduction in co2 emissions, u.s. households in the lowest-income quintile would be worse off on average by around $500 per year, while households in the top-income quintile reap a net gain of around $1,000 (i.e., increased stockholder wealth overcompensates this group for higher energy prices). this inequitable outcome could be avoided under emissions taxes and auctioned allowance systems if revenues were recycled in income tax reductions, somewhat tilted toward lowerincome groups, to offset the effect of their disproportionately higher budget shares for energy goods (e.g., metcalf 2009). as regards political feasibility, compensation for adversely affected industries may also be part of the political deal-making needed to first initiate, and then progressively tighten, emissions controls (e.g., ellerman 2005). compensation through free allowance allocation or tax
What publication is referenced as having a "Green Watch" feature?
the london paper
What was Orlando Bloom quoted saying upon his visit to Antartica?
i saw the how tragically fragile the ice caps are
What celebrity was with Orlando Bloom?
orlando bloom (left, with keira knightley
at the same time as this general trend, there are numerous specific and recent illustrations of not only the growth of celebrity voices in relation to climate change, but also how this has quickly turned climate change and its associated science into new forms of spectacle. for instance, nestled in the may 29 anon, 2007 edition of the london paper ,5in the paper's 'green watch' feature, a film still fig. 3 appeared with orlando bloom and keira knightley from pirates of the caribbean: at world ' s end with the headline 'polar meltdown not so cool'. the caption reads thus: orlando bloom (left, with keira knightley)--whose pirates of the caribbean: at world ' s end took $401 million globally on its opening weekend--swapped pirate clobber for thermal clothing when he traveled to antarctica to see the damage global warming is wreaking. committed environmentalist bloom said: ''i saw the how tragically fragile the ice caps are". thus, the spectacle-ization of climate change seems (al)most complete, with a 'polar meltdown' playing invisible stagehand to the 'melting' powers of two of the most powerful 'celeb-rated' bodies of bloom and knightley. and, yet, not all celebrities are created nor treated as equal. thus, even if pop idol or american idol were the requisite routes for the achievement of 'celebrity' status, departures from ideals of meritocracy and participatory democracy become readily apparent even in the pcs. a 2007 ac nielsen and university of oxford online poll6including respondents in the us, uk, canada and australia suggested that specific celebrities have garnered particular
Global food production must increase by what percent to meet the projected demand of the world's population by 2050?
global food production must increase by 50% to meet the projected demand of the world's population by 2050
Meeting this difficult challenge will be made even harder if climate change melts portions of the which glaciers?
meeting this difficult challenge will be made even harder if climate change melts portions of the himalayan glaciers to affect 25% of world cereal production in asia by influencing water availability
global food production must increase by 50% to meet the projected demand of the world's population by 2050. meeting this difficult challenge will be made even harder if climate change melts portions of the himalayan glaciers to affect 25% of world cereal production in asia by influencing water availability. pest and disease management has played its role in doubling food productioninthelast40 years,butpathogensstillclaim10-16%oftheglobalharvest.weconsidertheeffectofclimatechange on the many complex biological interactions affecting pests and pathogen impacts and how they might be manipulated to mitigate these effects. integrated solutions and international co-ordination in their implementation are considered essential. providing a background on key constraints to food security, this overview uses fusarium head blight as a case study to illustrate key influences of climate change on production and quality of wheat, outlines key links between plant diseases, climate change and foodsecurity, andhighlights key disease managementissues tobe addressedinimproving foodsecurity ina changing climate. keywords climate change, food safety, fusarium head blight, global food security, mycotoxin, plant disease
Is a tall building more or less exposed to the sun?
the higher the building, if standing alone, the more exposed to the sun it is and the more it can overheat
How were service charges absorbed in the past?
previously such service charges were absorbed in the general council charges, so making all tenants and council tax payers pay to run the lifts in highrise buildings that others occupied
Are maintenance costs for tall buildings higher or lower?
the higher the building, the greater the annual maintenance costs to keep it clean, repaired and safe
in addition, the higher the building, the more it costs to run because of the increased need to raise people (lifts), goods and services and also, importantly, because the more exposed the building is to the elements the more it costs to heat and cool. the higher the building, the higher the wind speeds around the building, the more difficult to keep the wind out, and the more the wind pressure on the envelope sucks heat from the structure, particularly as with many twentieth century tower blocks the envelope leaks. the higher the building, if standing alone, the more exposed to the sun it is and the more it can overheat. and hence the higher the building the more it costs to keep the internal environment comfortable. 19 so in effect, by making the simple decision that those with less money will live in the air in social housing ' towers ' their quality of life will be compromised: they will struggle to pay their utility bills and for the service charges for their lifts and for caretakers necessary to keep such buildings safe and clean. local councils in the uk now have to charge homeowners what it costs them to run a building people live in. previously such service charges were absorbed in the general council charges, so making all tenants and council tax payers pay to run the lifts in highrise buildings that others occupied; now individual householders will have to foot the bills for the costs of their own homes. so individual council tax payers and tenants foot the bill for a politician's choice to go ' high ' lifts are very energy expensive and costly to run, maintain and replace. lifts alone can account for at least 5 - 15% of the building running costs and the higher the building, the more it costs. 20 the higher the building, the greater the annual maintenance costs to keep it clean, repaired and safe. the failure of a single building element can be catastrophic. for example, the silicone mastic used to weatherproof glazing panels was given in its early forms only a 15-year performance guarantee. if mastic fails, it can result in the need to remove and/or repair every single glazing panel in the surface of a building, which in a high-rise building would prove to be a crippling expense. dayto-day maintenance of buildings can be similarly expensive and where building envelopes are problematic to access, they can have enormous annual cleaning costs. one famous tall building in the city of london has allegedly proved impossible to sell because of its astronomical maintenance
Who are the users of C-Roads?
negotiators, policymakers, scientists, business leaders and educators are among the many who use c-roads. senior members of the u.s. government including legislators and members of the executive branch have used c-roads
Whose opinion was helpful to the conclusion of [C-Roads]?
dr jonathan pershing, the deputy special envoy, commented: the results [of c-roads] have been very helpful to our team here at the u.s. state department the simulator ' s quick and accurate calculation of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels and temperatures has been a great asset to us i have made use of the results in both internal discussions
What is the use of C-Roads?
the results [of c-roads] have been very helpful to our team here at the u.s. state department the simulator ' s quick and accurate calculation of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels and temperatures has been a great asset to us i have made use of the results in both internal discussions, and in the international negotiations
negotiators, policymakers, scientists, business leaders and educators are among the many who use c-roads. senior members of the u.s. government including legislators and members of the executive branch have used c-roads. the u.s. department of state of fi ce of the special envoy for climate change has developed an in-house capability to use c-roads and deploy it in the unfccc and other bilateral and multilateral negotiations. dr jonathan pershing, the deputy special envoy, commented: the results [of c-roads] have been very helpful to our team here at the u.s. state department the simulator ' s quick and accurate calculation of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels and temperatures has been a great asset to us i have made use of the results in both internal discussions, and in the international negotiations. (personal communication)
What are considered human-induced stressors to ecosystems?
drainage, flood control, and unsustainable development
How many global recommendations are given in this articie?
8
africa, china and peat areas in central europe will have a great demand for water. this is an important subject that needs to be considered in the design and implementation of sustainable restoration/conservation practices for wetlands, particularly with regard to the predictions of climate change (schwarzel et al. 2006 ). recommendations there is no doubt that globally there is a great need to reverse certain significant human-induced stressors to ecosystems including drainage, flood control, and unsustainable development. we can do this by undertaking wetland restoration programs and implementing sustainable ecosystem management plans now as we continue to work on the task of reducing co2 emissions and reversing existing climate change trends. the following global recommendations are offered to scientists, practitioners and policymakers to provide some perspective as well as a stimulus for discussion with a goal toward developing a new direction for global wetland conservation in a changing world. 1. one of our goals should be to significantly reduce non-climate stressors on ecosystems: the reduction of stressors causes by human activities will increase the resiliency of habitats and species to the effects of climate change and variability. in essence, this situation is what good management already seeks to accomplish. however, a changing climate amplifies the need for managers to minimize effects these stressors have on wildlife populations. 2. protect coastal wetlands and accommodate sea level change. impacts of sea level rise can be ameliorated with acquisition of inland buffer zones to provide an opportunity for habitats and wildlife to migrate inland. setback lines for coastal development can be effective at establishing zones for natural coastal migration based on projected sea level rise. storm surge should be considered in establishing buffer zones and setback boundaries. in other cases, restoration of natural hydrology could facilitate sediment accretion and building of deltaic coastal wetlands. 3. monitoring is an essential element of ecosystem management, in that it is in intended to detect long-term ecosystem change, provide insights to the potential ecological consequences of the change, and help decision makers determine how management practices should be implemented. monitoring may be used as a starting point to define baseline conditions, understand the range of current variability in certain parameters and detect desirable and undesirable changes over time within reserve areas and adjacent ecosystems. 4. we need to quickly train restoration scientists and practitioners. there will be a great need to monitor, design and implement wetland restoration and management projects globally on a large scale. currently we have no global plan for improving expertise in these areas. 5. rapidly changing climates and habitats may increase opportunities for invasive species to spread because of their adaptability to disturbance. invasive species control efforts will be essential, including extensive monitoring and targeted control to preclude larger impacts. 6. wetland restoration and management must incorporate known climatic oscillations. shortterm periodic weather phenomena, such as el nin~o, should be closely monitored and predictable. by understanding effects of periodic oscillations on habitats and wildlife, management options can be fine-tuned. for example, restoration of native plants during the wet phase of oscillations, avoiding the drought phase, could make the difference between success and failure. 7. conduct mediumand long-range planning that incorporates climate change and variability. this planning should also apply to institutions and governments alike. if climate change and variability are not proactively taken into account, the potential for conservation plans to succeed will likely be much reduced. 8. we must develop a strategy for selecting and managing restoration areas appropriately. as wildlife and habitats have declined across north america, the establishment of refuges, parks, and reserves has been used as a conservation strategy. however, placement of conservation
What is of great concern according to Pindyck?
it should be of great concern when the results of decades of work on climate economics iams canbedescribedinaseriouspeer-reviewedjournalasbeing"closetouseless"( pindyck2013 
What would be one response in regards IAMs results?
one response would be to attempt to simply ignore the results of iams, on the basis that they are not an adequate guide for policy interventions that shift, create or destroy trillions of dollars economic value
What does Pindyck forcefully argue?
pindyck 2015 forcefully argues that complex iams should be abandoned in policy making in favour of simple models and expert opinions (see, for example, rezai and van der ploeg 2014 golosov et al. 2014 bretschger and vinogradova 2014 
it should be of great concern when the results of decades of work on climate economics iams canbedescribedinaseriouspeer-reviewedjournalasbeing"closetouseless"( pindyck2013 ). even if this is an overstatement, given the potential seriousness of climate change and the fact that its consequences for human welfare may indeed be staggering, this assessment should be alarming for economists and for policy makers around the globe. one response would be to attempt to simply ignore the results of iams, on the basis that they are not an adequate guide for policy interventions that shift, create or destroy trillions of dollars economic value. indeed, pindyck 2015 forcefully argues that complex iams should be abandoned in policy making in favour of simple models and expert opinions (see, for example, rezai and van der ploeg 2014 golosov et al. 2014 bretschger and vinogradova 2014 ). however, as pindyck 2015 acknowledges, experts themselves often rely on iams to inform their opinions so their models ought to be as good as possible. but iams will continue to be used in policymaking because an integrated framework is required in key decisions of national governments. even when they are not, iams tend to frame political
What is an option when a sector is a small contributor to the overall increasing total anthropogenic climate forcing?
to take the net impact of cooling and heating effects
What Fig 5 show?
shows the contribution to global-mean temperature change in 2000 for various emissions from the transport sector for different emission periods since 1900
t could be used instead. another option, which is perhaps attractive when a sector (e.g. aviation) is a small contributor to the overall increasing total anthropogenic climate forcing (and therefore does not affect the sign of that forcing), is to take the net impact of cooling and heating effects (with a further desire to account for any regional differences in the net impact notwithstanding). thus, designing and comparing all these effects on a common scale is a challenging task that involves exercising value judgements (in particular weighting of effects over time). a consequence of the different lifetimes/adjustment times is that theircontributions to climate change differ significantlyafter the time of emissions. fig. 5 a shows the contribution to global-mean temperature change in 2000 for various emissions from the transport sector for different emission periods since 1900. this is calculated using a ud-ebm (see section 3 and the quantify transport emission
Which study is adopted for analysis of statistical significance?
mann-whitney u test
Which are the two observational data obtained in the study?
annual average temperature (degrees c) and precipitation 
What is the unit of precipitation in the study?
cm/yr
we use the mann-whitney u test, the nonparametric analog of the t test, for our analysis of statistical significance. the t test assumptions are false for the data populations generated by this study. the impact of highly variable and extreme data values, such as precipitation and snow accumulation, on the u statistic is reduced figure 2. comparison of modern day regcm2.5produced annual average temperature (degrees c) and precipitation (cm/yr) with observational data. columns show annual average precipitation (a) and temperature (b) for the period of record at each station and from the model. lines show range of each variable from observations and the model.
What is RBV?
resource-based view
How has RBV been instrumental ?
the rbv has been instrumental in developing the notion of shrm, or the exploration of hr's role in supporting business strategy (wright, dunford, snell, 2001). devanna, fombrum, tichy, and warren (1982) highlighted shrm as a key process in strategy implementation
Who suggested a firm's HR practices being a source of competitive advantage?
as suggested by lado and wilson (1994), a firm's hr practices also are a source of competitive advantage
according to the resource-based view (rbv), internal firm resources that are rare, valuable, inimitable, and nonsubstitutable can provide sources of sustainable competitive advantages (barney, 1991). human resource practices that meet these criteria are such a source (wright mcmahan, 1992) and thus enhance organizational performance. the rbv has been instrumental in developing the notion of shrm, or the exploration of hr's role in supporting business strategy (wright, dunford, snell, 2001). devanna, fombrum, tichy, and warren (1982) highlighted shrm as a key process in strategy implementation. specifically, several types of hr activities, such as performance appraisal, compensation, and development programs, were considered as critical for strategy implementation if they could elicit desired employee behaviors and enable managers to achieve long-term strategic goals (schuler jackson, 1999). huselid (1995) conceptualized shrm as the emphasis each firm places on aligning its hr functions and competitive strategy. arguably, such an alignment (or external fit) is conducive to firm performance (bae lawler, 2000; becker huselid, 1998). as suggested by lado and wilson (1994), a firm's hr practices also are a source of competitive advantage. "hr practices" generally refers to a set of internally consistent practices adopted by firms to enhance the knowledge, skills, ability, and motivation of employees. as these practices support and develop the human resources and competencies, they add value to the firm (wright, smart, mcmahan, 1995). these practices, widely adopted
Simulation models are based on off-line predictions?
about future emissions and climate conditions
A predetermined set of emissions by time period dictates?
the amount of carbon that can be used in production and model output includes the cost of abatement and cost of damage
Instead, the simulation models reviewed in this study - PAGE2002 we see?
estimate the costs of various likely future emission paths
simulation models are based on off-line predictions about future emissions and climate conditions; climate outcomes are determined by an economic model of production, damages, consumption, investment and abatement costs. a predetermined set of emissions by time period dictates the amount of carbon that can be used in production and model output includes the cost of abatement and cost of damages. simulation models cannot, in and of themselves, answer questions of what policy makers should do to maximize social welfare or minimize social costs. instead, the simulation models reviewed in this study - page2002 (hope, 2006), icam-3 (dowlatabadi, 1998), e3mg (barker et al., 2006) and gim (mendelsohn and williams, 2004) - estimate the costs of various likely future emission paths.
During which season is the sun is low above the horizon in middle to large latitudes and the day length is short?
during winter, the sun is low above the horizon in middle to large latitudes and the day length is short
What two measures may on expect large discrepancies between?
therefore, one may expect large discrepancies between hc-1 retrievals and actual ssis
The chance to have many observations with solar zenithal angle less than how many degrees are small?
therefore, the chance to have many observations with solar zenithal angle less than 75deg are small and the number of available hours is the lowest
during winter, the sun is low above the horizon in middle to large latitudes and the day length is short. therefore, the chance to have many observations with solar zenithal angle less than 75deg are small and the number of available hours is the lowest. the opposite occurs in summer. nevertheless, one can see that, at most, only one-third of the hours can be used to assess the daily value: in all cases, the number of hours is not enough to describe complex highly-variable situations. therefore, one may expect large discrepancies between hc-1 retrievals and actual ssis. in addition, the instants of sampling are defined in utc--every 3 h--and are the same for all pixels. the few available hours are not necessarily well distributed with respect to the sun course and irradiance profile. it may well be that a specific climate is misrepresented. for example, given a month, if clouds occur frequently in the morning only, and if the one or two available b2 observations are made in the afternoon, then the month will be considered as most often clear. other examples can be found where the rate and instants of sampling are inadequate to describe the cloud cover and therefore lead to inaccurate estimated ssi. as a conclusion, one should be cautious in using hc-1 in high latitudes and in any case where the variability in ssi with respect to space and time is large for scales of order of 10 km and 1 h, apart from the variability induced by the sun course. remote sens. 2011 3
What is the purpose of this paper?
 the purpose of this paper is to suggest a procedure of red noise removal from a time series with potentially ''true'' regime shifts
What do the authors argue?
they argue, however, that key physical variables for the north pacific, such as the pdo, are not deterministically nonlinear, and are best described as linear stochastic
What did this shift take place?
 this shift clearly exhibited itself in the phase change of the first principal component of sea surface temperature in the north pacific, known as the pacific decadal oscillation or pdo mantua et al. 1997]. rudnick and davis [2003] questioned the interpretation of the pdo series as a sequence of genuine ''regimes'' with different statistics
currently, a popular interpretation of long-term variability in the climate and biological records is based on the concept of ''regimes'' and ''regime shifts.'' common definitions of these terms usually involve the notion of multiple stable states in a physical or ecological system and a rapid transition from one state to another. the regime concept received a strong impetus after the shift in the north pacific climate in 1976-77 miller et al. 1994]. this shift clearly exhibited itself in the phase change of the first principal component of sea surface temperature in the north pacific, known as the pacific decadal oscillation or pdo mantua et al. 1997]. rudnick and davis [2003] questioned the interpretation of the pdo series as a sequence of genuine ''regimes'' with different statistics. using monte carlo simulations, they showed that an equally plausible model for the pdo would be a gaussian red noise process with stationary statistics. exploring the idea that true regime shifts require the underlying dynamics to be nonlinear, hsieh et al. [2005] arrived at the conclusion that large-scale marine ecosystem, due to their nonlinearity, have the capacity for dramatic change in response to stochastic fluctuations in basin-scale physical factors. they argue, however, that key physical variables for the north pacific, such as the pdo, are not deterministically nonlinear, and are best described as linear stochastic. the purpose of this paper is to suggest a procedure of red noise removal from a time series with potentially ''true'' regime shifts. after this ''prewhitening,'' the time series can be processed with any regime shift detection method. this approach is applied to the pdo series to see whether or not it represents something more than just a realization of a red noise process.
What system was used to assess the microbial communities?
microbial communities were assessed on day 10 using the microresp system
What was each 96-well deep-well microplate inoculated with?
each well of a 96-well deep-well microplate was inoculated with 300 mg of the soil and a solution of pre-dispensed c sources
At what hour was the detection plate measured?
 colour development on the detection plate was measured immediately before and after 6 h of incubation at 25 deg c
physiological profiles of microbial communities were assessed on day 10 using the microresp system (macaulay institute, aberdeen, uk), which allows substrate-induced co2 measurements on whole soil rather than dilutions in microbial growth media. a total of 15 c sources were chosen to cover a range of rhizodeposits, including sugars, amino acids and carboxylic acids (figure s3). each well of a 96-well deep-well microplate was inoculated with 300 mg of the soil and a solution of pre-dispensed c sources (campbell et al. 2003). the deep-well plate was then immediately sealed with the gasket and a detection plate by a metal clamp. colour development on the detection plate was measured immediately before and after 6 h of incubation at 25 deg c using a biotek microplate spectrophotometer (biotek instruments inc., winooski, vt, usa) at 590 nm, and converted to co2 evolution based on a standard calibration curve prepared with standard gas mixtures (campbell et al. 2003).
What does technology determines?
technology determines the scale and carbon intensity of our economic activities. this means that technical change will alter the energy mix of the economy in the future, and thus to a large extent determine how much co2 we emit
What would be a good example of how technical change affects the carbon intensity of economic activity?
good example of how technical change affects the carbon intensity of economic activity can be seen in the rapid growth of hydraulic fracturing in the united states, which between 2002 and 2012 pushed down the price of natural gas from $12 to less than $4 per mmbtu, thus replacing coal and reducing us ghg emissions (energy information agency 2013
To what exactly can the extraordinary economic growth be traced back?
much of the extraordinary economic growth that has occurred since the industrial revolution can be traced to the productivity enhancing effects of technological innovations (phelps 2013
technology determines the scale and carbon intensity of our economic activities. this means that technical change will alter the energy mix of the economy in the future, and thus to a large extent determine how much co2 we emit. a good example of how technical change affects the carbon intensity of economic activity can be seen in the rapid growth of hydraulic fracturing in the united states, which between 2002 and 2012 pushed down the price of natural gas from $12 to less than $4 per mmbtu, thus replacing coal and reducing us ghg emissions (energy information agency 2013). such a change would have been hard to imagine even ten years ago. this illustrates the importance of technological uncertainty and the fact that there are many potential developments that could make it easier to reduce ghg emissions or adapt to the consequences of climate change. technical change also influences the level of economic output and the growth path of the economy as a whole. thus technology affects both our demand for energy and how rich we will be in the future. much of the extraordinary economic growth that has occurred since the industrial revolution can be traced to the productivity enhancing effects of technological innovations (phelps 2013). but we cannot be sure that past progress is a good predictor of future trends (gordon 2012). in general, we have no theory of technical change that can reliably forecast long-run economic growth rates. this is unsettling because the growth rate of the economy strongly influences the discount rate, which has been shown to be a major driver of climate policy recommendations, as reflected in the debate between stern and the critics of his 2006 report (nordhaus 2007; weitzman 2007).
What is the main problem caused by urban noise? Answer: People do not hear emergency warnings.
noise: people cannot hear warnings
The fact that they are segregated and do not receive warning of disasters prevents people from using which safety device? Answer: Emergency shelter.
or being unwilling to use emergency shelter (wamsler et al., 2012
What are the difficulties caused by the constant changes in the composition and layout of the urban fabric? Answer: Make access to updated information (such as databases and maps) necessary for response and recovery difficult.
9. constant changes to the composition and layout of the urban fabric, which make it difficult to access up-to-date information (such as databases and maps) required for response and recovery
reduction of natural lighting, fog and cloud: reduced visibility when no electric light is available. noise: people cannot hear warnings. 8. increase of vulnerability factors that have a negative influence on response and recovery due to the influence of the urban fabric on socio-economic factors. these include fewer interactions with neighbours, exclusion and segregation, little sense of community, lack of local leadership structures, economic specialization, etc. for example, the exclusion and segregation of residents in marginal areas results in people not receiving disaster warnings or being unwilling to use emergency shelter (wamsler et al., 2012). 9. constant changes to the composition and layout of the urban fabric, which make it difficult to access up-to-date information (such as databases and maps) required for response and recovery.
What do modeling results indicate?
modeling results indicate that alexandrium blooms could develop up to two months earlier in the year and persist for up to two months longer by 2100 compared to the present day (figure 7
What do all model projections indicate by 2100?
all model projections indicate that the bloom season will expand by at least one month on either side of the present-day bloom season by 2100
What risk may this have on humans?
this may increase the risk of human exposure to the toxins, which can cause paralytic shellfish poisoning
results and conclusions: modeling results indicate that alexandrium blooms could develop up to two months earlier in the year and persist for up to two months longer by 2100 compared to the present day (figure 7). all model projections indicate that the bloom season will expand by at least one month on either side of the present-day bloom season by 2100. therefore, it is likely that the risk of alexandrium blooms that can contaminate shellfish with potent toxins will increase. this may increase the risk of human exposure to the toxins, which can cause paralytic shellfish poisoning. sources of uncertainty include different rates of warming associated with each model ensemble and other factors that affect growth and abundance, but all models used project warming of coastal waters.
What variables will cause these views to vary?
there is abundant evidence from surveys that these views will vary according to race, religion, income level, and whether the society in which they live is primarily competitive or solidaridistic.37
What did Jamieson (1992) point out as an important ingredient of mutually advantageous strategies leading to current moral conventions?
in particular, as jamieson (1992) has pointed out, an important ingredient of mutually advantageous strategies leading to current moral conventions has been an ability to identify responsibility for actions and events
How do interest rates in the developing world compare to rich countries?
for one thing, interest rates in the developing world are substantially higher than in rich countries
on the other hand, there are reasons why the appropriate consumption discount rate for global climate change policy might be higher than the interest rate in rich countries. for one thing, interest rates in the developing world are substantially higher than in rich countries. but more importantly, on a one-person-one-vote basis, there are grounds for supposing that the majority of the world's population would attach higher priority to the welfare of the current generation than to that of future unborn generations. and in terms of agent-relative ethics, there are reasons not to rely on people's preferences as a safe guide to society's discount rate for intergenerational projects. first, although the evolutionary game-theoretic explanation of how moral systems have emerged may be accurate, they have emerged before humans had the capacity to influence the future that it possesses today. in particular, as jamieson (1992) has pointed out, an important ingredient of mutually advantageous strategies leading to current moral conventions has been an ability to identify responsibility for actions and events. but this is not the case across generations. as has often been remarked, we have no incentive to behave decently towards future generations in case they retaliate against us if we do not (jamieson, 1992, p. 148). on the other hand, an evolutionary/game-theoretic model does not seem to provide any guidance as to how we ought to treat future generations. second, a casual glance round the world shows that generations are hardly homogeneous. at any one point of time, people's views on distributive justice and related issues, such as risk and uncertainty--whether intergenerational or intragenerational--will reflect a variety of factors. there is abundant evidence from surveys that these views will vary according to race, religion, income level, and whether the society in which they live is primarily competitive or solidaridistic.37
What is the reconstruction of Pliocene land surface cover is largely based on?
the following reconstruction of pliocene land surface cover is largely based on a synthesis of 202 piacenzian marine and terrestrial palaeoenvironmental records which have been merged with outputs of the mechanistically based biome4 model forced by climatology derived from the hadley centre hadam3 gcm model simulation (fig. 2
What does the distribution of global biomes indicates?
the distribution of global biomes indicates for the interglacial and cooler "glacial" periods of the pliocene a generally warmer and wetter climate than today
In which regions of the world did Semiarid Amaranthaceae-Chenopodiaceae shrublands and grassland also extend?
semiarid amaranthaceae-chenopodiaceae shrublands and grassland also extended northwards into southern spain and north africa (e.g. fauquette et al., 1999
the following reconstruction of pliocene land surface cover is largely based on a synthesis of 202 piacenzian marine and terrestrial palaeoenvironmental records which have been merged with outputs of the mechanistically based biome4 model forced by climatology derived from the hadley centre hadam3 gcm model simulation (fig. 2). further details of the methodology and coupling strategy as well as a full reference list of literature used for the biome reconstruction was given by salzmann et al. (2008). the distribution of global biomes indicates for the interglacial and cooler "glacial" periods of the pliocene a generally warmer and wetter climate than today. 2.1 tropical and sub-tropical vegetation zones the palaeobotanical data available for the tropical zone of africa, australasia and south america suggest that the evergreen rain forest belt was, during the piacenzian, nearly in the same latitudinal position as today (fig.2, e.g. kershaw and sluiter, 1982; suc et al., 1995). north and south of the rainforest belt, the adjacent tropical woodlands, savannas and shrublands expanded during the piacenzian and covered much larger areas than today (e.g. leroy and dupont, 1994; dodson and macphail, 2004). the higher precipitation caused a retraction of subtropical deserts and semi-desert. most of the modern arid and semi-arid climate zones in africa, central australia and the arabian peninsula were covered during the pliocene with temperate and tropical xerophytic shrublands and grasslands (fig. 2). semiarid amaranthaceae-chenopodiaceae shrublands and grassland also extended northwards into southern spain and north africa (e.g. fauquette et al., 1999). while temperature was also augmented here, precipitation remained relatively unchanged or increased only slightly, creating in the southern mediterranean a rare example of a drier-than-modern pliocene climate.
What showed a relatively lower response to climate change at low levels of N applications and why?
ceres-rice showed a relatively lower response to climate change at low levels of n applications because the model did not show any response in grain number
What did this study show?
this study shows that the direct effect of climate change in irrigated and well management rice crops will always be positive in different agroclimatic regions in india irrespective of the various uncertainties. southern and western india, which are at present relatively cooler during the rice season compared to northern and eastern regions, are likely to show a greater sensitivity to climate change. as a consequence, current yield differences in irrigated rice crops across regions are likely to disappear after the climatic change
What conclusions should be used with caution?
these studies use specific gcm based scenarios and a specific crop model. while integrated assessments of climate change on food availability are very much needed, conclusions based on the average simulated grain yields and mean changes in climatic parameters should be used with caution
thedifferentialresponseofthetwomodelswasduetotheircontrastingstructure. ceres-rice showed a relatively lower response to climate change at low levels of n applications because the model did not show any response in grain number. by comparison,atthesamelevelofnmanagement,riceyieldssimulatedbyoryzain showed a small increase. this was due to an increase in grain number caused by the increased growth rate related to co2 enrichment. as more n was applied, ceresrice showed a higher response in grain yield than oryzain due to setting a sink limitation (grain weight reached its potential) in the latter. this study shows that the direct effect of climate change in irrigated and well management rice crops will always be positive in different agroclimatic regions in india irrespective of the various uncertainties. southern and western india, which are at present relatively cooler during the rice season compared to northern and eastern regions, are likely to show a greater sensitivity to climate change. as a consequence, current yield differences in irrigated rice crops across regions are likely to disappear after the climatic change. aggrawal and mall (2002) concluded that several studies are being done to develop an integrated assessment of climate change impact on regional and global food supplies and demand. some of these could also find use in directing food policy. these studies use specific gcm based scenarios and a specific crop model. while integrated assessments of climate change on food availability are very much needed, conclusions based on the average simulated grain yields and mean changes in climatic parameters should be used with caution. 6. mitigation and adaptation strategies examination of relatively recent weather of the last century at many parts of the country indicates warming trends although statistically may not be significant, but there are enough indicators to suggest a modest increase in co2 and temperature. in spite of the uncertainties about the precise magnitude of climate change on regional scales due to scenarios and crop models on impact assessment, an assessment of the possible impacts of climate change on india's agricultural production under varying socioeconomic conditions is important for formulating response strategies, which should be practical, affordable and acceptable to farmers. the identification of suitable response strategies is key to sustainable agriculture. the important mitigation and adaptation strategies required to cope with anticipated climate change impacts include adjustment in sowing dates, breeding of plants that are more resilient to variability of climate, and improvement in agronomic practices (attri and rathore, 2003). attri and rathore (2003) suggested the adaptation strategies for sustainable production of wheat and ensuring food security. adaptation measures to mitigate the potential impact of climate change included possible changes in sowing dates and genotype selection. enhancement of sowing by 10 days in late-sown cultivars
What is impacted by changes in forest fire regimes?
future changes in fire occurrence would affect budgets, staffing, technologies, equipment needs, warning mechanisms and monitoring systems
What is a positive impact of the fire regimes?
minimize costs and ease the transitions
What is assisting in fire regimes?
as well as the response of the forestry sector to these events, can assist in understanding and improving the degree of preparedness for the future
changes in forest fire regimes as a result of climate change would necessitate adjustments in fire management systems. future changes in fire occurrence would affect budgets, staffing, technologies, equipment needs, warning mechanisms and monitoring systems.(105)anticipating these changes and increasing interagency cooperation could help to minimize costs and ease the transitions. studies on the impacts of past extreme climate events, as well as the response of the forestry sector to these events, can assist in understanding and improving the degree of preparedness for the future. for example, researchers are investigating how the management of woodlots and plantations can be used to reduce vulnerability to ice storms,(79)and are developing decision-support tools to assist forest managers in dealing with damaged tree stands.(109)
How managers will be challenged to respond to this uncertainty?
managers will be challenged to integrate adaptation strategies into plans in response to changing climates
What does adaptive strategies includes?
resistance options, resilience options, response options, and realignment options
What are our objectives?
our objectives are to present ideas that could be useful in developing plans under changing climates that could be applicable to forests with mediterranean climates
received 21 december 2009 accepted for publication 5 may 2010 published 19 may 2010 online at stacks.iop.org/erl/5/024003 many us forest managers have used historical ecology information to assist in the development of desired conditions. while there are many important lessons to learn from the past, we believe that we cannot rely on past forest conditions to provide us with blueprints for future management. to respond to this uncertainty, managers will be challenged to integrate adaptation strategies into plans in response to changing climates. adaptive strategies include resistance options, resilience options, response options, and realignment options. our objectives are to present ideas that could be useful in developing plans under changing climates that could be applicable to forests with mediterranean climates. we believe that managing for species persistence at the broad ecoregion scale is the most appropriate goal when considering the effects of changing climates. such a goal relaxes expectations that current species ranges will remain constant, or that population abundances, distribution, species compositions and dominances should remain stable. allowing fundamental ecosystem processes to operate within forested landscapes will be critical. management and political institutions will have to acknowledge and embrace uncertainty in the future since we are moving into a time period with few analogs and inevitably, there will be surprises.
Which city in the article is preparing for climate change?
toronto
What was the first recommendation?
level of public, staff and stakeholder awareness about climate change and its impacts and support for actions to protect against climate change
What was not included in the adaptation strategy?
monitoring arrangements were not included in the adaptation strategy
monitoring arrangements were not included in the adaptation strategy. however, it was observed that periodic assessment of the progress that toronto makes in preparing for climate change is necessary. it was recommended that this assessment should focus on the following: * level of public, staff and stakeholder awareness about climate change and its impacts and support for actions to protect against climate change; * vitality and perseverance of collaboration between the city, its communities, researchers, nongovernmental organizations and other levels of government on addressing climate change issues; * technical capacity to assess the risks of climate change; * the extent to which climate change considerations have been incorporated into high level policies, plans and practical programs in priority impact areas; * the extent to which climate change adaptation strategies reduce stress on vulnerable systems; * the effectiveness of implemented adaptation strategies in extreme weather events.
What does Dr. Dilley do?
dr. dilley is a geographer with experience in designing and implementing programs in disaster and risk management
Name two places where Dr. Dilley has worked
prior to coming to the iri in november 2001, he worked for two years at the world bank disaster management facility and for seven years at the u.s. agency for international development's office of u.s. foreign disaster assistance
Why did Dr. Dilley move to Geneva, Switzerland?
in july 2005, dr. dilley moved to geneva, switzerland to join the undp's bureau for crisis prevention and recovery as a policy advisor
dr. dilley is a geographer with experience in designing and implementing programs in disaster and risk management. prior to coming to the iri in november 2001, he worked for two years at the world bank disaster management facility and for seven years at the u.s. agency for international development's office of u.s. foreign disaster assistance. dr. dilley shared responsibility for the africa region and impacts research programs. he was responsible for developing the program in disaster and risk management and he also played a role in iri partnership development. in july 2005, dr. dilley moved to geneva, switzerland to join the undp's bureau for crisis prevention and recovery as a policy advisor.
What are among the most well studied of the diseases associated with climate change?
vector-borne diseases are among the most well studied of the diseases associated with climate change
What also exert a range of more indirect effects?
climate and weather conditions also exert a range of more indirect effects
What have significantly altered the areas climatically suitable for transmission?
the climate changes that have occurred over the previous century have significantly altered the areas climatically suitable for transmission
vector-borne diseases are among the most well studied of the diseases associated with climate change, owing to their large disease burden, widespread occurrence and high sensitivity to climatic factors. in contrast to some other climate-sensitive health risks, such as heat-stress, or exposure to storms and floods, the influence of meteorological factors are less direct, and more diverse, both within and between individual diseases the simplest connections are through temperature, affecting the biting, survival and reproductive rates of the vectors, and the survival and development rates of the pathogens that they carry. precipitation also exerts a very strong influence, most obviously in the case of diseases transmitted by vectors that have aquatic developmental stages (such as mosquitoes), but also, via humidity, on diseases transmitted by vectors without such stages, such as ticks or sandflies. climate and weather conditions also exert a range of more indirect effects, through wider effects on the natural environment and on human systems, for example as drought may affect water-storage, land-use and irrigation practices, and population movement, in turn, affecting vector ecology, and human exposure to infection (e.g. see reviews in references [7-11]). for example, a recent who report summarizing the importance of vector-borne diseases states that previously relativelystablegeographicaldistributionsare nowchanging owing to a range of factors, 'including climate change, intensive farming, dams, irrigation, deforestation, population movements, rapid unplanned urbanization, and phenomenal increases in international travel and trade' [12, p. 6]. these environmental and social factors may either reinforce climate effects (for example where dams and water transport projects combine with increasingly suitable temperature conditions for schistosomiasis transmission ), or counteract them (e.g. as urbanization reduces the relative importance of more rural vector-borne diseases, such as malaria ). given the strength and range of these connections, it is not surprising that there is abundant observational evidence of the effects of meteorological factors, from seasonal and interannual patterns of disease incidence in specific locations, to the strong explanatory power of climate variables in accounting for the geographical distribution of most, if not all, vector-borne diseases long-term anthropogenic climate change interacts with natural variability, influencing vector-borne disease transmission from shorter (e.g. annual) to longer (e.g. decadal) time scales, with variable effects at different times and in different locations. these influences may reinforce each other, for example in locations where the temperature increases associated with el nin~ o events aresuperimposed on long-term increase in temperature, or may oppose each other, for example as changes in global temperature over the past decade or so appear to have currently damped the longer-term upward temperature trends the complexity of these interactions means that the effect of climate change, and the nature and extent of interaction with non-climate factors, varies markedly by diseases and by location. the effects of climate on disease transmission may be obscured, for example where the vectors are relatively buffered against weather and climate owing to living entirely inside houses (such as the triatomine bugs, which transmit chagas disease), or where the pathogens have long development periods in the host (such asthe nematodewormsthat cause filariasis). even in diseases with superficially similar transmission cycles can be affected verydifferentlyby climate change. thedifference can be illustrated by consideration of malaria and dengue, two of the most important and well-studied vector-borne diseases, both anthroponoses transmitted by mosquitoes. the who estimates that in 2012 there were about 207 million cases and 627 000 deaths attributable to malaria [6,12]. the climate changes that have occurred over the previous century have significantly altered the areas climatically suitable for transmission. for example, in africa, areas that have
What is stressed in the text?
we stress too that it is important to differentiate between different types of carbon market, something that critiques of market-based solutions to climate change often fail to do (foe 2009; smith 2007
Where the accounting climate change debates emerged from?
accounting climate change debates emerged, as we have shown, from the initial engagement of accountants with the eu ets, and it is the eu ets that has continued to influence the accounting profession as they have become progressively more engaged
What suggestion is made in the text?
we would suggest, however, that there is a much more compelling case for radical reform and overhaul of the other major global carbon market, the united nations clean development mechanism (cdm), mostly because of the damaging 33 33 (political and atmospheric) inclusion of the industrial gas hfc-23 in the cdm, leading to perverse outcomes (warra 2007
we stress too that it is important to differentiate between different types of carbon market, something that critiques of market-based solutions to climate change often fail to do (foe 2009; smith 2007). accounting climate change debates emerged, as we have shown, from the initial engagement of accountants with the eu ets, and it is the eu ets that has continued to influence the accounting profession as they have become progressively more engaged. despite recent upsets (vat carousel fraud, the 'recycling' of cers), the eu ets appears to be working relatively well. we would suggest, however, that there is a much more compelling case for radical reform and overhaul of the other major global carbon market, the united nations clean development mechanism (cdm), mostly because of the damaging 33 33 (political and atmospheric) inclusion of the industrial gas hfc-23 in the cdm, leading to perverse outcomes (warra 2007).
What is a site-specific analysis?
for instance, over an expanded range of phenologies, a strong pattern emerged suggesting that rapid development was favored in the north but the slower development in the south (site-specific analyses
What is a population-specific analysis?
however, within the range of variation expressed by each population in each environment, plants with more rapid phenologies were consistently favored by direct selection (population-specific analysis
What patterns of phenology and specific leaf area did the adaptive hypotheses support?
opportunity to detect stabilizing selection on traits. this study has demonstrated a dine in selection that corresponds to a dine in phenotype across the northern extent of the geographical range of c. fasciculata. adaptive hypotheses concerning clinal patterns for phenology and specific leaf area were supported by observed patterns of genetic differentiation among populations coupled with demonstration of spatial variation in selection. further support for the adaptive nature of trait values of native populations is indicated by selection toward the phenotypic mean of local populations
broadening of the phenotypic distribution provided a clearer picture of selection corresponding to latitude as illustrated by differences between siteand population-specific analyses. for instance, over an expanded range of phenologies, a strong pattern emerged suggesting that rapid development was favored in the north but the slower development in the south (site-specific analyses). however, within the range of variation expressed by each population in each environment, plants with more rapid phenologies were consistently favored by direct selection (population-specific analysis). similarly, site-specific analyses showed that selection favored thicker leaves most strongly in the south. in contrast, consideration of selection of only single populations in the gradient of environments would have led to the opposite conclusion because adaptive phenotypic responses restrict the range of phenotypes within each population, thus obscuring the overall selection. despite substantial plastic responses of the populations in response to the different environments, the phenotypic distribution was extended in at least one direction in all environments in the site-specific analyses. however, in five of nine cases, the distribution was extended in only one direction relative to the local population, which may have reduced the opportunity to detect stabilizing selection on traits. this study has demonstrated a dine in selection that corresponds to a dine in phenotype across the northern extent of the geographical range of c. fasciculata. adaptive hypotheses concerning clinal patterns for phenology and specific leaf area were supported by observed patterns of genetic differentiation among populations coupled with demonstration of spatial variation in selection. further support for the adaptive nature of trait values of native populations is indicated by selection toward the phenotypic mean of local populations. the companion to this paper (etterson 2004) characterizes the genetic architecture of populations across environments that influences the extent to which populations may evolve in response to altered selection regimes with climate change (etterson and shaw 2001).
What is the environmental impact of climate in developed countries?
climate change and its impact on the developed as well as developing countries are becoming the greatest worries of life and livelihoods. the impacts of climate change are heterogeneous across a diverse range of geopolitical scales. for instance, the risk is generally believed to be more acute in developing countries because they rely heavily on climate-sensitive sectors, such as agriculture and fisheries, and have low gross domestic products, high level of poverty, low level of education, and limited human, institutional, economic, technical, and financial capacities as cited in [1-3
climate change and its impact on the developed as well as developing countries are becoming the greatest worries of life and livelihoods. the impacts of climate change are heterogeneous across a diverse range of geopolitical scales. for instance, the risk is generally believed to be more acute in developing countries because they rely heavily on climate-sensitive sectors, such as agriculture and fisheries, and have low gross domestic products, high level of poverty, low level of education, and limited human, institutional, economic, technical, and financial capacities as cited in [1-3]. vulnerability of countries and societies to the effects of climate change depends not only on the magnitude of climatic stress but also on the sensitivity and capacity of affected societies to adapt to or cope with such stress. therefore, vulnerability is the degree to which a system is susceptible or unable to cope with the adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. in this regard, vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity a number of climate change impact studies have been conducted in many countries on specific sectors such as water resources, agriculture, health, coastal zones, and forestry by using impact models and to a lesser extent socioeconomic analyses [5-7]. global recommendation for africa calls for an integrated assessment approach for vulnerability study, at national scale and local level from the perspective of rural farm households, an analysis of vulnerability to climate change is needed at the level that would specifically address specific geographic location so that the smallholders will get a lesson to tackle climate change problems with the precision that is necessary on the other hand, the resilience of households to climate change impact is another important issue in maintaining sustainable livelihood. according to dfid, resilience at community level is explained as the ability of countries, communities and households to manage change, by maintaining or transforming living standards in the face of shocks or stresses--such as earthquakes, drought or violent conflict--without compromising their longterm prospects similarly, resilience is the ability of
What information was documented in Part I?
the crossing of two thresholds in late 2009 was documented in part i
The paragraph states that the crossing of thresholds made already-established difficulties unavoidable. From what two phenomena did these difficulties arise?
crossing those thresholds made unavoidable the difficulties which had already arisen from longer established errors in the understanding and application of diplomatic process and of scientific knowledge about 'wicked' problems
According to this paragraph, what is the purpose of this paper so far?
so far, this paper has sought to provide as clear an account as we collectively can give of where the world stands in 2010 in face of a nexus of issues comprising climate change; humanity's knowledge of earth's biophysical systems (and especially our swiftly increasing knowledge of our ignorance of their mysteries); and
the crossing of two thresholds in late 2009 was documented in part i. crossing those thresholds made unavoidable the difficulties which had already arisen from longer established errors in the understanding and application of diplomatic process and of scientific knowledge about 'wicked' problems. these were explained in part ii. so far, this paper has sought to provide as clear an account as we collectively can give of where the world stands in 2010 in face of a nexus of issues comprising climate change; humanity's knowledge of earth's biophysical systems (and especially our swiftly increasing knowledge of our ignorance of their mysteries); and
What do the studies on climate pattern in the North Atlantic-European sector demonstrate?
while the effects in the pacific-north american sector and the tropical regions are relatively well understood, the impacts on the circulation in the north atlantic-european sector are discussed more controversially. studies from the past 10 years demonstrate that enso does affect european climate
Do the the past studies  on the effect of ENSO on European climate show that the effect is static? explain.
however, some of the effects undergo a seasonal modulation or are nonlinear. the signal can be modified by other factors and might be nonstationary on multidecadal scales, contributing to a large interevent variability
According to the researcher, What is the scope of the present study?
here i review observational and model-based evidence for enso's effect on european climate and discuss possible mechanisms, also including troposphere-stratosphere coupling. the paper ends with a schematic depiction of the effects and a discussion of their relevance with respect to our scientific understanding of the climate system and of their relevance for seasonal climate forecasts
el nin~o-southern oscillation (enso) is arguably the most important global climate pattern. while the effects in the pacific-north american sector and the tropical regions are relatively well understood, the impacts on the circulation in the north atlantic-european sector are discussed more controversially. studies from the past 10 years demonstrate that enso does affect european climate. however, some of the effects undergo a seasonal modulation or are nonlinear. the signal can be modified by other factors and might be nonstationary on multidecadal scales, contributing to a large interevent variability. here i review observational and model-based evidence for enso's effect on european climate and discuss possible mechanisms, also including troposphere-stratosphere coupling. the paper ends with a schematic depiction of the effects and a discussion of their relevance with respect to our scientific understanding of the climate system and of their relevance for seasonal climate forecasts.
How many weather stations the Bangladesh Meteorological Department has?
the bangladesh meteorological department has 35 meteorological stations
Which is the annual average rainfall for the city of Dhaka from 1971 to 2005?
the annual average rainfall in the city is about 2,120 millimetres
Which months are in the monsoon season?
june, july and august
the bangladesh meteorological department has 35 meteorological stations throughout the country. rainfall data from the dhaka station for 1971 to 2005 show that the annual average rainfall in the city is about 2,120 millimetres, of which about 50 per cent falls during the months of june, july and august, generally referred to as the monsoon season. average rainfall during the winter months (december, january and february) is negligible, less than 2 per cent of annual rainfall. while dhaka's long-term trend in annual rainfall shows no signifi cant change, the trend in seasonal rainfall appears to be erratic. two important facts support this fi nding. first, trend analysis reveals that although there is no signifi cant change in annual average rainfall, the number of "days without rainfall" is increasing. second, seasonal rainfall data in both the monsoon (june, july, august) and winter (december, january, february) seasons show a decreasing trend over time. however, it should be noted that the r2 value (denoting the statistical strength of this trend) is very low. figure 2 shows annual average rainfall and "days without rainfall". however, these two facts together indicate that more rainfall is occurring in other months of the year and that rainfall intensity is increasing.
Waht do people from Karbaye allegedly announced?
shortly after the establishment of the dam, people from karbaye allegedly announced that other villagers were not allowed to use it
What did farmers from Karbaye start cultivating?
farmers from karbaye thereafter started to cultivate vegetables and fruits in gardens next to the dam
What did they even prohibit?
they also prohibited the watering of livestock, as animals would damage the gardens
shortly after the establishment of the dam, people from karbaye allegedly announced that other villagers were not allowed to use it. farmers from karbaye thereafter started to cultivate vegetables and fruits in gardens next to the dam. they also prohibited the watering of livestock, as animals would damage the gardens. in addition, the gardens started to encroach on the burtol, eventually blocking it for any passage. herders from guirowel did not accept, however, that access to the dam was denied and that the burtol leading to the casier pastoral with burgu pastures was blocked. they felt they had the right of access to the dam, as they had contributed to its financing. many people in karbaye, on the other hand, believed that the only reason the herders insisted on using the dam and the burtol was to provoke, and not because they necessarily depended on the water resource. the violence between guirowel and karbaye took place next to the dam, just outside karbaye, on the livestock corridor, and only 20-30 meters from the casier pastoral. the two villages largely disagree on what happened before and during the conflict. the common story from guirowel was:
Gaining public support for climate change depends on what?
gaining public support for climate change policies and encouraging environmentally responsible behavior depends on a clear understanding of how people process information and make decisions
With climate control being so complex what do people need to know?
with an issue as complex as climate change, people need to know there are solutions to dealing with it, and that they can be part of those solutions
How does the passage wants readers to explain climate change with their audience?
to communicate climate change in a way that resonates with their audience
gaining public support for climate change policies and encouraging environmentally responsible behavior depends on a clear understanding of how people process information and make decisions. social science research provides an essential part of this puzzle but, as the guide makes clear, there is no "one-size-fits-all" approach to the challenges of communicating about climate change. rather, each of the many barriers presents a new opportunity to improve the way we present information about climate change and the behaviors required to mitigate it. it is our hope that readers will use the information in this guide--paired with the latest advances in climate science, engineering, economics, and environmental policy--to communicate climate change in a way that resonates with their audience. ensuring that people feel both a personal connection with climate change and a desire to take action to mitigate its impact, without becoming overwhelmed by the scale of the problem, is key. whereas it goes beyond the expertise of the authors of this social-science-based guide to provide specific policy recommendations and other climate change solutions, climate change policies are an essential component about which the public needs to be informed and for which political support needs to be generated. with an issue as complex as climate change, people need to know there are solutions to dealing with it, and that they can be part of those solutions. social science research provides compelling evidence for an optimist's view that climate change communicators can reach both policymakers and the public, informing and inspiring them to address climate change. following is a brief summary of the principles discussed in detail in the guide. we encourage readers to use the summary as a reference and to refer back to the guide for more in-depth information about topics that interest them.
What are some short-term climatic changes?
for example, short-term climatic fluctuations, such as el nino events, as well as stressors, including overfishing, pollution and land-use change, all affect fish physiology, distribution and production
What else is complication the situation to isolate potential implacts of climate changes on fisheries
further complicating the situation are the potential effects of changing environmental conditions on species interactions, such as predator-prey and parasite-host relationships, food web structure and competition for resources
Why is successful adaptation key?
successful adaptation will be key in minimizing the negative impacts of climate change, while taking advantage of any new opportunities that may arise
however, marine and freshwater ecosystems are complex, and are influenced by a range of climatic and non climatic parameters. for example, short-term climatic fluctuations, such as el nino events, as well as stressors, including overfishing, pollution and land-use change, all affect fish physiology, distribution and production. this makes it difficult to isolate the potential impacts of climate change on fisheries.(12)further complicating the situation are the potential effects of changing environmental conditions on species interactions, such as predator-prey and parasite-host relationships, food web structure and competition for resources.(8)how climate change will affect these relationships is poorly understood,(6)and adds considerable uncertainty to impact assessments. any thorough assessment of the vulnerability of fisheries must account for adaptations that would occur either in response to, or in anticipation of, climate change. the fisheries sector has demonstrated its ability to adapt to change in the past, through adjustments in capture methods, marketing strategies and target species. there is, however, a limited understanding of both the adaptive capacity of the fisheries sector with respect to climate change, and the range and feasibility of potential adaptation options.(2)successful adaptation will be key in minimizing the negative impacts of climate change, while taking advantage of any new opportunities that may arise.
What is the center of the review?
this paper presents an overview of an emerging literature that addresses climate changet impacts at the city-scale, and the formulation of appropriate responses
Puts the perspective of any literature?
this paper presents an overview of an emerging literature that addresses climate changet impacts at the city-scale, and the formulation of appropriate responses
à®Žà®¨à¯à®¤ à®¤à®¾à®•à¯à®•à®™à¯à®•à®³à¯ˆ à®•à¯‹à®Ÿà¯à®Ÿà®¿à®Ÿà¯à®Ÿà¯ à®•à®¾à®Ÿà¯à®Ÿà¯à®•à®¿à®±à®¤à¯
in this final section we summarise the main strands of our findings and outline the implications they have for the design of future research to inform risk assessment and adaptation strategy at the city-scale
this paper presents an overview of an emerging literature that addresses climate changet impacts at the city-scale, and the formulation of appropriate responses. a focus of the review is to assess the extent to which quantitative and monetary measures of impacts and adaptation have been developed to communicate the size and extent of city-level climate risks and to aid cost-effective and cost-efficient responses at this spatial scale. in this final section we summarise the main strands of our findings and outline the implications they have for the design of future research to inform risk assessment and adaptation strategy at the city-scale
What is an example of the suggestion by Holloway (1992) to replace the usual sub-grid scale parameterizations in ocean models?
holloway (1992) suggested to replace the usual sub-grid scale parameterizations in ocean models, where, e.g. viscous forces are represented with terms of the form n*[?] u ), where n* is the eddy viscosity
What did Holloway propose to replace terms of the form "n*[?] u )" with and why?
he proposed to replace such formula with n*[?]( u - u*), so that viscosity relaxes the system towards the statistical equilibrium state u
What is one example study that implemented, tested and commented on Holloway's proposed term replacement?
such a parameterization has been implemented, tested and commented in a number of studies cummins and holloway 1994, e.g
results from equilibrium statistical mechanics have found practical applications in the development of parameterization methods. holloway (1992) suggested to replace the usual sub-grid scale parameterizations in ocean models, where, e.g. viscous forces are represented with terms of the form n*[?] u ), where n* is the eddy viscosity. he proposed to replace such formula with n*[?]( u - u*), so that viscosity relaxes the system towards the statistical equilibrium state u*. such a parameterization has been implemented, tested and commented in a number of studies cummins and holloway 1994, e.g.). for more perspective on this type of subgrid-scale parameterizations, the reader is referred to holloway 2004) and frederiksen and o'kane 2008). along similar lines, kazantsev et al. (1998) have proposed more generally to treat the subgrid scales so as to maximize the entropy production, inspired by the 14
What is important element of our diagnosed mechanism?
is the existence of a precessional cycle of the annualmean meridional sst gradient and wind forcing
variations of the annual-mean incoming solar radiation?
the variations of the annual-mean incoming solar radiation due to precessional forcing in the tropics are close to zero
The origin of the precessional cycles?
the origin of the precessional cycles of these variables can be qualitatively explained as follows
an important element of our diagnosed mechanism is the existence of a precessional cycle of the annualmean meridional sst gradient and wind forcing. the variations of the annual-mean incoming solar radiation due to precessional forcing in the tropics are close to zero. yet, we have seen in the echo-g simulation a pronounced precessional cycle of precipitation and winds (fig. 3), clouds (not shown), and temperature (fig. 4). the origin of the precessional cycles of these variables can be qualitatively explained as follows. for a given latitude (say 7degn) the strength of the annual cycle of top-of-the-atmosphere insolation undergoes strong precessional and eccentricity cycles. now suppose that, in a state with enhanced seasonal cycle in the northern tropical pacific, the boreal summer insolation is 20 w m 2stronger than under normal conditions, whereas the boreal winter insolation is reduced by 20 w m 2from some normal background state. without a seasonal cycle in clouds the annual mean precessional variations of the surface shortwave radiations are close to zero. however, there is a seasonal cycle of cloudiness in the off-equatorial region, and in particular of convective clouds in the northern hemisphere, due to the seasonal movement of the itcz. for reasons of simplification let us assume an albedo of 0.5 in boreal summer and 0.25 in boreal winter. this corresponds to a cloudiness of approximately 0.8 and 0.4, respectively.2the surface shortwave radiation gain in summer is 10 w m 2and the loss is
How the models varied?
the models vary based on the different wtp responses used as the dependent variable. the 'yes/no' responses6 to the first wtp question were used as the dependent variable in model 1
How to create dependent variables?
to create the dependent variables for analysis of wtp when global co-operation was assured, the 'no' responses obtained from the first wtp question were calibrated (recoded to 'yes') based on the responses to the second wtp question
What would happen if  respondents replied 'Definitely Yes'?
if respondents replied 'definitely yes' to the second wtp question then the corresponding 'no' responses to the first wtp question were recoded to 'yes'. these recoded responses were used as dependent variable in model 2. although both of the estimated regression models presented in table 3 are statistically significant at the one percent level, model 1 is the best fitting in terms of the pesudo r square
in table 3, the multivariate regression results for two different models are set out. the models vary based on the different wtp responses used as the dependent variable. the 'yes/no' responses6 to the first wtp question were used as the dependent variable in model 1. to create the dependent variables for analysis of wtp when global co-operation was assured, the 'no' responses obtained from the first wtp question were calibrated (recoded to 'yes') based on the responses to the second wtp question. if respondents replied 'definitely yes' to the second wtp question then the corresponding 'no' responses to the first wtp question were recoded to 'yes'. these recoded responses were used as dependent variable in model 2. although both of the estimated regression models presented in table 3 are statistically significant at the one percent level, model 1 is the best fitting in terms of the pesudo r square. in both models, the coefficients of the variable bid, the extra monthly expenses households were asked to pay for the cprs, are statistically significant and show the a priori expected negative sign (the higher the bid, the lower the probability that respondents were willing to pay).
Who provided the  provided a collection of early works on indigenous observations of change
krupnik and jolly (2002) provide a collection of early works on indigenous observations of change
A continuous observation of ecological is provided what country?
continuous observation of ecological change is provided by the nenets in northwest russia
An example of continuous observation of ecological change is?
yupik from the bering sea coast of alaska (krupnik, 2002); gwitchin and inupiat/inuvialuit from the alaska-canada borderlands (kofinas, 2002); and inuit from the western, central and high arctic, nunavut, canada (jolly et al., 2002; fox, 2002
one of the most innovative developments since the ipcc ar4 has been a multiplication and expansion of collaborative research efforts involving indigenous peoples and natural and social scientists (huntington, 2011). these emerging partnerships build upon a long history of joint research and management that, in the arctic, date back several decades to the land claims processes in northern north america in the 1970s and 80s (see section 5.4). krupnik and jolly (2002) provide a collection of early works on indigenous observations of change, including climate change, with revealing titles such as 'we can't predict the weather like we used to' (jolly et al., 2002). the compendium includes detailed documentation of indigenous knowledge of climate change effects from across the north american arctic and subarctic: yupik from the bering sea coast of alaska (krupnik, 2002); gwitchin and inupiat/inuvialuit from the alaska-canada borderlands (kofinas, 2002); and inuit from the western, central and high arctic, nunavut, canada (jolly et al., 2002; fox, 2002). a further example of continuous observation of ecological change is provided by the nenets in northwest russia, who report increases in the height of willow and alder shrubs salix spp., alnus fruticosa in the tundra zone (forbes and stammler, 2009). the reports from the nenets are independently confirmed by groups of herders on both sides of the polar urals, travelling along traditional migration routes used for decades. they are also linked to discernible changes in reindeer management in response to increases in shrub height. specifically,
Why is the prewhitening procedure proposed?
the prewhitening procedure proposed here is designed to remove the red noise component from time series prior to applying a regime shift detection method
What are the two key elements of the prewhitening procedure?
two key elements of the procedure are: 1) subsampling and 2) bias correction of the ols estimates of r
Why the size of subsamples should be as small as possible?
the size of subsamples should be as small as possible to minimize the effect of regime shifts on r
the prewhitening procedure proposed here is designed to remove the red noise component from time series prior to applying a regime shift detection method. it does not intend to reveal the nature of climate regimes; it is simply a way to see whether or not these regimes can be more than just a red noise process. two key elements of the procedure are: 1) subsampling and 2) bias correction of the ols estimates of r the size of subsamples should be as small as possible to minimize the effect of regime shifts on r on the other hand, it should be as large as possible to minimize the sampling variability of r these opposite requirements to the size of subsamples make it difficult to apply this procedure to short time series with decadal or shorter regimes. it works well, however, for relatively long time series with the regimes on the multidecadal time scale, such as the pdo. acknowledgments. i thank donald percival, nicholas bond, and two anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments on the earlier version of the manuscript. this publication is funded by the joint institute for the study of the atmosphere and ocean (jisao) under noaa cooperative agreement na17rj1232, contribution 1244. this research is contribution foci-0589 to noaa's fisheries-oceanography coordinated investigations and pmel contribution 2909.
what need the sensitivity parameter?
these differences in the sensitivity parameters need to be kept in mind when comparing results from different studies
friedlingstein et al. (2006). consequently, replacing  with in eqs. (10) and (11) for scenarios forced by prescribed carbon emissions leads to less negative values for both l (reduced by 18%) and o (reduced by 53%), overall resulting in a closer agreement with scenarios where co2 concentrations are prescribed. in summary, the results reported here for a range of emics indicate that these model sensitivity parameters are generally neither constant over time within one specific model and scenario nor constant across scenarios with different carbon emission or atmospheric co2 concentration pathways. the carbon sensitivities to climate change  l, and o), while being rather constant across scenarios with different co2 levels, strongly depend on the scenario setup, with either prescribed carbon emissions or prescribed atmospheric co2 concentrations, and the associated parameter calculation method. these differences in the sensitivity parameters need to be kept in mind when comparing results from different studies.
The panels on the lines (1-4)? show the observed climatic impacts of changes in forest cover between 2003 and 2012
panels in rows (1-4) show the observed climate impacts of changes in forest cover between 2003 and 2012 in the climate zones defined in column 1
What variations are observed in the average annual temperature of the air surface due to the changes?
observed variations in mean annual air surface temperature due to observed changes in forest cove
What are the colors of the average temperature sensitivities? Medium (brown) and minimal (black)
sensitivity of the mean (brown), minimum (black) and maximum (orange) air surface temperatures (c3) and land surface temperature (c4) to the fraction of deforested area
fig. 1. impacts on surface temperature of changes in forest cover for the different climate fig. 1. impacts on surface temperature of changes in forest cover for the different climate zones. panels in rows (1-4) show the observed climate impacts of changes in forest cover between 2003 and 2012 in the climate zones defined in column 1 (c1). c2) observed variations in mean annual air surface temperature due to observed changes in forest cover (seasonal plots are reported in figs. s5, s6). sensitivity of the mean (brown), minimum (black) and maximum (orange) air surface temperatures (c3) and land surface temperature (c4) to the fraction of deforested area.
When do the inflow distribution is split between various cells ?
when there is an arrangement of cells in series it is possible that the inflow distribution is split between the various cells
What happens in activated sludge ?
in activated sludge the denomination step feed has been employed to classify plugflow reactors or cells in series that receive this type of incremental feed
In which case do all the liquid fractions do not receive the same treatment exposure ?
in an arrangement in series with n cells of equal or different volumes with incremental feeding, all the liquid fractions do not receive the same treatment exposure
when there is an arrangement of cells in series it is possible that the inflow distribution is split between the various cells. hence, each cell is fed not only by the effluent from the upstream cell, but also by a fraction of the general influent. in activated sludge the denomination step feed has been employed to classify plugflow reactors or cells in series that receive this type of incremental feed. such an arrangement can also be used in stabilisation ponds and trickling filters. figure 8.15 shows possible arrangements of cells in series with step feed. in an arrangement in series with n cells of equal or different volumes with incremental feeding, all the liquid fractions do not receive the same treatment exposure. the first fraction receives treatment in all the cells; the second fraction is treated in n - 1 cells; the third in n - 2 cells and so on. when the cells have the same volume and receive the same fraction of the total flow, and decay follows a
Which area has less to fear with relation to continental climates?
temperate britain has perhaps less to fear than many other countries with more continental climates
Where can information about future climates be found?
there is a vast amount of emerging knowledge on future climates freely available on the internet 8
What year held one of the hottest summers?
particularly because fears have been expressed that the hot summer of 2003
temperate britain has perhaps less to fear than many other countries with more continental climates, while the future scenarios for the usa and australia, 7 two heavily energy-dependent continents, show a much bleaker picture. there is a vast amount of emerging knowledge on future climates freely available on the internet 8 and many reputable institutions in countries around the world are working to help develop strategies with which to fight for the future. we should take such climate change predictions very seriously indeed, and particularly because fears have been expressed that the hot summer of 2003, the hottest on record for europe, is a
Both ATSR?
both atsr datasets have relatively sparse spatial coverage
These SSTs?
these ssts are not independent of in situ observations
MyOcean dataset?
the utility of the myocean dataset lies in its earlier start date
arc (merchant et al. 2012). both atsr datasets have relatively sparse spatial coverage. the path fi nder v5.2 avhrr dataset is the longest time series, being consistently processed between 1984 and 2012. these ssts are not independent of in situ observations, being regressed to drifting buoys. although consistently processed, no harmonization or diurnal cycle adjustment is applied in path fi nder, and it is an open question whether the stability of the time series is adversely affected. the myocean ostia re-analysis (roberts-jones et al. 2012) is longer than the sst cci analysis. the myocean dataset is not based on consistent, harmonized inputs and signi fi cantly smooths sst features (fronts). in comparison with the sst cci analysis, the utility of the myocean dataset lies in its earlier start date.
What will the predicted movement of Siberian forests northward increase?
the predicted movement of siberian forests northward will increase the coverage of steppe ecosystems
Is permafrost predicted to thaw enough to support dark taiga forest?
permafrost is not predicted to thaw enough to support dark taiga forest
What could happen to aspen parkland as a result of moisture changes in a 2 X CO2 climate in Western Canada?
moisture changes in a 2 x co2 climate in western canada could result in expansion of aspen parkland northward at the expense of true boreal forest
few projections take into account the effect of vegetation changes and human intervention (e.g., fire management and land use activities). for example, warming is projected to be greatest in the northern latitudes and decadal scale periods of warmer temperatures in northern siberia have been linked to large-scale tree line changes in high-latitude boreal forests, with the tree lines migrating northwards during warmer periods.[154]the predicted movement of siberian forests northward will increase the coverage of steppe ecosystems, becoming predominant by 2080.[143]however, permafrost is not predicted to thaw enough to support dark taiga forest. fire danger is predicted to increase by 2080, mainly resulting from the accumulation of fuel loads when steppe replaces forests combined with more frequent fire weather and the resulting feedback of more wildfires creating grassland habitats that have a greater propensity to burn. moisture changes in a 2 x co2 climate in western canada could result in expansion of aspen parkland northward at the expense of true boreal forest, and while species migration may not follow climate drivers directly, different fuel conditions may predominate under different future climates.however fire itself could cause a species shift as more fires create younger forests dominated by successional species such as aspen.
what could cause an increase in climate variability?
an increase in climatic variability could cause range collapse and inhibit range shifts
Could climate change be even more variable than it is now?
thus, in reality, climate change may be even more variable, and persistence even more important than our estimates suggest
what created the highest degree of warming expected in A2?
for example, for t. torosa the higher degree of warming predicted under a2 created more future climate space than under b1 (appendix s2
(appendix s3). however, the pcm model still predicts considerable fluctuations in precipitation in the study region. in fact, under some combinations of modelled conditions, pcm can even result in more endangered and critically endangered species than hcm as climatic fluctuations make it harder for species to shift or maintain their range (figs 2 and s4a). therefore, it is not solely the directional magnitude of predicted climate change that is important; an increase in climatic variability could cause range collapse and inhibit range shifts. an important note is that the climate change data used here are the average of multiple climate change simulations, and so are somewhat smoothed. thus, in reality, climate change may be even more variable, and persistence even more important than our estimates suggest. the two greenhouse gas emission scenarios we used represent conservative (b1) and extreme (a2) estimates (hayhoe et al. 2004). we have largely discussed examples using the b1 scenario in order to demonstrate that our findings are not simply caused by extreme climate predictions. interestingly, outcomes under the a2 scenario are not always worse than under b1. for example, for t. torosa the higher degree of warming predicted under a2 created more future climate space than under b1 (appendix s2). if t. torosa could reach this climate space, then a2 might be less deleterious than b1.
What are the Adaptations in field-based livestock?
adaptations in field-based livestock include additional care to continuously match stock rates with pasture production, altered rotation of pastures, modification of times of grazing, and timing of reproduction, alteration of forage and animal species/breeds, altered integration within mixed livestock/crop systems including using adapted forage crops, reassessing fertilizer applications, care to ensure adequate water supplies, and use of supplementary feeds and concentrates (31-33
What are the limitations to these adaptations?
it is important to note, however, that there are often limitations to these adaptations; for example, more heat-tolerant livestock breeds often have lower levels of productivity
what are the risks in midlatitude regions?
furthermore, the capacity to implement infrastructural adaptations could be low in many tropical regions, whereas in the midlatitudes, the risk of reduction in water availability for agriculture (29) may limit adaptations that use water for cooling
adaptations in field-based livestock include additional care to continuously match stock rates with pasture production, altered rotation of pastures, modification of times of grazing, and timing of reproduction, alteration of forage and animal species/breeds, altered integration within mixed livestock/crop systems including using adapted forage crops, reassessing fertilizer applications, care to ensure adequate water supplies, and use of supplementary feeds and concentrates (31-33). it is important to note, however, that there are often limitations to these adaptations; for example, more heat-tolerant livestock breeds often have lower levels of productivity. in intensive livestock industries, there may be reduced need for winter housing and for feed concentrates in cold climates, whereas in warmer climates there might be increased need for management and infrastructure to ameliorate heatstressrelated reductions in productivity, fertility, and increased mortality. furthermore, the capacity to implement infrastructural adaptations could be low in many tropical regions, whereas in the midlatitudes, the risk of reduction in water availability for agriculture (29) may limit adaptations that use water for cooling.
What are the two variables that are available in all three data sets?
average temperature and total precipitation
How will you calculate the country averages?
we calculate country averages by taking a weighted average across grid cells that overlap a country's boundary for the months of the primary maize growing season (sacks et al. 2010
How will you average observations over the same time period for all three data sets?
we define the growing season as extending from the first of the month in which it begins to the end of the month when it ends because two of the three weather data sets provide only monthly values. in this way we are able to average observations over the same time period for all three data sets
cru and udel are statistically interpolated, whereas ncep uses data assimilation with a physical model as discussed earlier. we focus here on two variables that are available in all three data sets: average temperature and total precipitation. we calculate country averages by taking a weighted average across grid cells that overlap a country's boundary for the months of the primary maize growing season (sacks et al. 2010). we define the growing season as extending from the first of the month in which it begins to the end of the month when it ends because two of the three weather data sets provide only monthly values. in this way we are able to average observations over the same time period for all three data sets. next, we calculate the weight given to each grid in a county as the share of the country's land area that the grid covers. this allows us to derive the average temperature (the average between the minimum and maximum temperatures for those data sets that report the minimum and maximum) as well as total precipitation by country over the period 1960-1999. several recent studies have used
explain most important one for IAMs summarising?
ertain inputs - functional forms and parameter values - are arbitrary, but have huge effects on the results the models produce. an example is the discount rate
Is there any census among economist?
there is no consensus among economists as to the "correct" discount rate, but different rates will yield wildly different estimates of the scc and the optimal amount of abatement that any iam generates
Is the modeler has freedom in choosing forms, values,etc?
the modeler has so much freedom in choosing functional forms, parameter values, and other inputs, the model can be used to obtain almost any result one desires, and thereby legitimize what is essentially a subjective opinion about climate policy
what are the crucial flaws that make iams so unsuitable for policy analysis? they are discussed in detail in pindyck (2013b), but the most important ones can be briefly summarized as follows: 1. certain inputs - functional forms and parameter values - are arbitrary, but have huge effects on the results the models produce. an example is the discount rate. there is no consensus among economists as to the "correct" discount rate, but different rates will yield wildly different estimates of the scc and the optimal amount of abatement that any iam generates. for example, these differences in inputs largely explain why the iambased analyses of nordhaus (2008) and stern (2007) come to such strikingly different conclusions regarding optimal abatement. because the modeler has so much freedom in choosing functional forms, parameter values, and other inputs, the model can be used to obtain almost any result one desires, and thereby legitimize what is essentially a subjective opinion about climate policy. 2. we know very little about climate sensitivity i.e., the temperature increase that would eventually result from a doubling of the atmospheric co2 concentration, but this is a key input to any iam. the problem is that the physical mechanisms that determine climate sensitivity involve crucial feedback loops, and the parameter values that determine the
Have measurements of aerobic scope in fishes increased in recent years?
measurements of aerobic scope in fishes have increased in popularity in recent years, particularly in disciplines outside of classic respiratory physiology
What does the paper highlight when interpreting metabolic data?
beyond methodological aspects, this paper highlights the need to use caution when interpreting metabolic data in the framework of the ocltt concept. the latter is a hypothesis, and like all hypotheses it should be tested rather than assumed to be a law (see hilborn, 2006
What can we take away from the trend?
while this trend is exciting to see and will likely continue into the future, there is a need to implement a higher level of quality control before the diversity of issues becomes too great to remedy
measurements of aerobic scope in fishes have increased in popularity in recent years, particularly in disciplines outside of classic respiratory physiology. while this trend is exciting to see and will likely continue into the future, there is a need to implement a higher level of quality control before the diversity of issues becomes too great to remedy. although it is not possible to cover all of the technical aspects that must be considered when conducting respirometry experiments on fishes, we have endeavoured in the present paper to outline a range of fundamental issues that must be considered by scientists before embarking on future studies. beyond methodological aspects, this paper highlights the need to use caution when interpreting metabolic data in the framework of the ocltt concept. the latter is a hypothesis, and like all hypotheses it should be tested rather than assumed to be a law (see hilborn, 2006). indeed, a concerning observation in publications supporting ocltt is the general lack of reference to the large number of previous studies that have quantified aerobic scope across temperature and found no support for ocltt. there is no doubting the importance of aerobic metabolism in daily activities,
What is not responsible for the increasing destructiveness of California shrublands wildfires?
a correlation between fire frequency and population suggests that fire suppression may not be responsible for the increasing destructiveness of californian shrublands wildfires
Which fire are often driven by extreme weather?
again, these catastrophic brushland fires are often driven by extreme weather, particularly very high winds associated with the santa ana
what will be expand by the urban interface?
the urban interface continues to expand as a preference for the rural lifestyle and prices for suburban housing in large cities rises, so in the future not only will we see the influence of increased temperature (and hence extreme fire weather) on determining fire
a correlation between fire frequency and population suggests that fire suppression may not be responsible for the increasing destructiveness of californian shrublands wildfires.[166]again, these catastrophic brushland fires are often driven by extreme weather, particularly very high winds associated with the santa ana.[169]the correlation of fire frequency with population suggests that many of these fires result from human activity (either deliberate or unintentional). the urban interface continues to expand as a preference for the rural lifestyle and prices for suburban housing in large cities rises, so in the future not only will we see the influence of increased temperature (and hence extreme fire weather) on determining fire, we will see increased
How to examine women work with the patterns?
we have used data from interviews with women to examine how they work with the patterns and contradictions contained within the current polarized discursive climate around singleness
How you suggesting that single women cannot think and speak in other and more diverse ways about their situation
we are not suggesting that single women cannot think and speak in other and more diverse ways about their situation, but rather given the homogeneity and ubiquity of these discursive resources, the identity work of most of the women interviewed seemed to take them into account in some way
When women's movement's use of consciousness-raising groups occur?
the women's movement's use of consciousness-raising groups in the 1970s and later has been critiqued for making assumptions about universality of experiences. it lost some force through its late attention to the different experiences of, for instance, black, lesbian, or working-class women (see discussion in connell, 1987, pp. 270-274
we have used data from interviews with women to examine how they work with the patterns and contradictions contained within the current polarized discursive climate around singleness. we have tried to demonstrate the negative consequences for women of the way the 'logic' of this ideological field is typically organized. we are not suggesting that single women cannot think and speak in other and more diverse ways about their situation, but rather given the homogeneity and ubiquity of these discursive resources, the identity work of most of the women interviewed seemed to take them into account in some way. they form an uncomfortable discursive climate and one of the goals of feminist politics must be to contribute to a more comfortable climate. it is not for us to prescribe how this might be done. there are some difficulties in building an identity politics around a category that includes quite diverse experience. it is also a category that individual women do not necessarily see themselves as inhabiting forever. the women's movement's use of consciousness-raising groups in the 1970s and later has been critiqued for making assumptions about universality of experiences. it lost some force through its late attention to the different experiences of, for instance, black, lesbian, or working-class women (see discussion in connell, 1987, pp. 270-274). we hope that papers such as this one can contribute to recognition of the dilemmas of selfrepresentation that women on their own have to deal with, and stimulate further thinking on this subject.
Explain the survey design for the agricultural project model?
the research instrument the kenyan climate and agriculture project adopted the survey design for sampling used by all the countries in the regional gef/world bank project
Tell us about Yale University's forestry and environmental studies?
it also used the same questionnaire, which was designed jointly by the school of forestry and environmental studies of yale university and the centre for environmental economics and policy in africa (ceepa), university of pretoria
Explain the socio-economic characteristics?
the questionnaire details the socio-economic characteristics of the 4 before 1996, kenya had 46 districts but these were subsequently subdivided to make a total of the current 72 districts. the sampling frame was based on the old district classification, in order to make the data compatible with data on long-term climate variables
the research instrument the kenyan climate and agriculture project adopted the survey design for sampling used by all the countries in the regional gef/world bank project. it also used the same questionnaire, which was designed jointly by the school of forestry and environmental studies of yale university and the centre for environmental economics and policy in africa (ceepa), university of pretoria. the questionnaire details the socio-economic characteristics of the 4 before 1996, kenya had 46 districts but these were subsequently subdivided to make a total of the current 72 districts. the sampling frame was based on the old district classification, in order to make the data compatible with data on long-term climate variables.
What is the main economic activity of the interviewees?
farming is the major economic activity for (61.8
Is there anyone who raises cattle and does not plant it?
all livestock keepers are also farmers and none of the respondents was keeping livestock alone
major economic activities in study areas farming is the major economic activity for (61.8%) of the respondents in kamenyanga and (56.9%) in kintinku (table 2). although livestock is the second major economic activity in kamenyanga (35.3%) and kintinku (25.0%), all livestock keepers are also farmers and none of the respondents was keeping livestock alone. petty business ranked as the third economic activity. however the activity appeared to be of less importance to kamenyanga (2.9%) as compared to kintinku (18.1%). this is due to the difference in the levels of urbanization in these two villages. since kintinku is more urbanized than kamenyanga that means petty business opportunities are also higher. this implies that villagers in kintinku stand a better chance of coping with the impacts of cc v because they can diversify economic activities more easily than villagers in kamenyanga. given that, farming and livestock keeping is the main economic activities in both villages this implies that cc v will have a far-reaching effect on the livelihoods of these communities. other minor economic activities included selling of local brew, which was common in kamenyanga and was mainly done by women. according to interviews this activity has increased recently. in addition, currently there has been an increase in the number of women involved in the production of charcoal and the collection and selling of firewood. this is unlike in the past when these activities were only undertaken by men. also in kamenyanga, there were few people involved in bee keeping. it was observed that most of these emerging activities are non farm activities. however, the raw materials for preparing local brew depend on the availability of crops, whereas charcoal and firewood was harvested from the natural forest, which is also affected by the cc v. table 3 presents the existing farming 210 afr. j. environ. sci. technol.
how many factors does LW depends on?what are they
two factors: the surface temperature and the magnitude of the greenhouse effect of the atmosphere
what does the rapid fluctuations of LW radiation driven by volcanic forcings in turn leads to?
the rapid fluctuations of lw radiation are driven by volcanic forcings, which decrease the absorbed sw radiation, surface temperature, and the lw radiation emitted by the earth toward space
what is called net heating of the earth?
the fast increase of ghg concentrations also decreases the radiation emitted by the earth
lw radiation. the lw net flux depends mainly on two factors: the surface temperature and the magnitude of the greenhouse effect of the atmosphere. during the 20th century, the rapid fluctuations of lw radiation are driven by volcanic forcings, which decrease the absorbed sw radiation, surface temperature, and the lw radiation emitted by the earth toward space. during the period 1960-2000, the fast increase of ghg concentrations also decreases the radiation emitted by the earth. in response to this net heating of the earth, temperatures warm and thereby increase emitted lw radiation although the change of the temperature vertical profile, water vapour, and cloud properties modulate this response (e.g., bony et al., 2006; randall et al., 2007).
What would an open classroom climate provide?
an open classroom climate has the same impact on all adolescents regardless of their expected level of education--these results do support the compensation hypothesis as it applies to both appreciation of conflict and voting. in both cases, the lower the level of education an adolescent expects to obtain, the greater the impact of an open classroom climate
Who is it significant to for civic education to be taught in school?
for policy-makers, it is particularly significant that civic education in school appears to have the potential to partially compensate for the persistent class bias in political engagement. while parents ought not to be complacent about the importance of their efforts to engage their children in discussions about politics, it is nonetheless easier to target schools than homes for policy interventions designed to boost the political engagement of low se
Would students be more informed if they had a open classroom climate?
these results suggest that fostering an open classroom climate is a promising strategy to do so. with more voice in the classroom, perhaps there could be more equality in political engagement
furthermore, an open classroom climate correlates with an increased likelihood that adolescents envision themselves as informed voters, and a decreased likelihood that they endorse unconventional (i.e. illegal) forms of political expression. furthermore, these results provide evidence, albeit mixed, for the compensation hypothesis. while there is not evidence for compensation when applied to civic knowledge--an open classroom climate has the same impact on all adolescents regardless of their expected level of education--these results do support the compensation hypothesis as it applies to both appreciation of conflict and voting. in both cases, the lower the level of education an adolescent expects to obtain, the greater the impact of an open classroom climate. these results are hardly the final word on effective civics instruction, as they admittedly leave ambiguous the precise process by which an open classroom climate might influence the civic development of adolescents. for example, it is probable that much of what is observed as the influence of an open classroom climate works through a social learning process, particularly teachers serving as models of democratic and discursive behavior. similarly, there is likely also a peer effect, whereas apolitical teens are ''pulled'' into having greater political awareness by their engaged classmates. or both could be happening--teachers are civic role models, which spur some youth to be more politically engaged, who in turn encourage their friends and peers to be politically engaged. with this evidence favoring the civically salutary consequences of an open classroom climate, future research ought to be directed toward sorting out the causal process by which this occurs with more precision. causation can be determined more definitely if crosssectional data like cived and naep are supplemented with longitudinal research. even better, non-experimental studies like this one should be complemented by experimental studies of different approaches to enhancing political discussion in the classroom. i close by noting some overtly normative implications of these findings. schools are often highlighted as a policy lever to boost voter turnout among the young, but specific proposals are inevitably fraught with controversy. a fundamental difficulty facing any proposal to reform civic education in the schools is disagreement over its objectives (murphy 2003 ). the policy implication stemming from the study of an open classroom climate avoids this difficulty, as presumably virtually all americans can agree that young people should be encouraged to become informed voters. importantly, the classroom discussion in question does not consist of ideological indoctrination, which would obviously invite controversy, but instead even-handed, respectful discourse about opposing viewpoints. for policy-makers, it is particularly significant that civic education in school appears to have the potential to partially compensate for the persistent class bias in political engagement. while parents ought not to be complacent about the importance of their efforts to engage their children in discussions about politics, it is nonetheless easier to target schools than homes for policy interventions designed to boost the political engagement of low ses youth. these results suggest that fostering an open classroom climate is a promising strategy to do so. with more voice in the classroom, perhaps there could be more equality in political engagement.
Which species did the ONF provide habitats for?
providing habitat for those species (e.g., northern spotted owl strix occidentalis caurina merriam], marbled murrelet brachyramphus marmoratus gmelin]) that depend on habitat in old forests
What is an important attribute of the wilderness at higher elevations in ONF and ONP that provides refugia for flora and fauna?
equally important, wilderness at higher elevations in onf and onp provides refugia for flora and fauna across a common land scape that has never been disturbed by logging
In 20 years of ONF forest habitat restoration, what was the emphasis on?
the onf has been restoring forest habitat for over 20 years, with an emphasis on accelerating late-suc cessional structure in coniferous forests, following several decades of extensive timber harvest
olympic national forest (onf) and olympic national park (onp) share borders on the olympic peninsula in the northwestern corner of washington state. this region has a high degree of endemism in native plant and animal species owing to its glacial history, ocean border, and isolation from other mountainous landscapes. areas that were ice free (above about 1200 m) during glaciations contain rare species and habitats and served as both refugia and sources of biological diversity following glacial recession, thus creating resistance to impacts during past variations in climate. onf and onp both emphasize conservation of native flora and fauna in management policy. the onf has been restoring forest habitat for over 20 years, with an emphasis on accelerating late-suc cessional structure in coniferous forests, following several decades of extensive timber harvest. the onp served as an "island" of latesuccessional forest amidst timber harvest on onf and private lands, providing habitat for those species (e.g., northern spotted owl strix occidentalis caurina merriam], marbled murrelet brachyramphus marmoratus gmelin]) that depend on habitat in old forests. equally important, wilderness at higher elevations in onf and onp provides refugia for flora and fauna across a common land scape that has never been disturbed by logging. as climate contin ues to warm, these subalpine and alpine landscapes may change owing to altered competitive relationships among species, with effects determined largely by the effects of warming on duration of snowpack. survival of species and populations in these areas in a warmer climate should be maximized because most native biota are still present and may be able to resist future stress.
According to the text, what was Linn Van Dyne's role in the project?
we thank linn van dyne for her input at various stages of this project and talya bauer
How did Anne Downey and Soo Min Toh contribute to the project?
we also thank anne downey and soo min toh for their assistance in data management
To whom are correspondences concerning the article meant to be sent?
correspondence concerning this article should be addressed to david a. hofmann, department of management, kenan-flagler business school, university of north carolina, chapel hill, north carolina 27599-3490. e-mail: dhofmann@unc.edu
david a. hofmann, department of management, kenan-flagler business school, university of north carolina, chapel hill; frederick p. morgeson, the eli broad graduate school of management, michigan state university; stephen j. gerras, u.s. army. we thank linn van dyne for her input at various stages of this project and talya bauer, bob liden, paul tesluk, and nick turner for comments on a previous version of this article. we also thank anne downey and soo min toh for their assistance in data management. correspondence concerning this article should be addressed to david a. hofmann, department of management, kenan-flagler business school, university of north carolina, chapel hill, north carolina 27599-3490. e-mail: dhofmann@unc.edu
Which entity had the most comprehensive review of geoengineering science?
in the most comprehensive review of geoengineering science to date, the royal society
What two distinct approaches did the Royal Society identify on geoengineering science?
the royal society identified two distinct approaches: carbon dioxide removal (cdr) techniques, which remove co2 from the atmosphere, and solar radiation management (srm) techniques, which reflect a small percentage of the sun's light and heat back into space
What is a concert the Royal Society established?
the uncertainties are considerable, and the potential risks vary enormously across different proposals--from concerns that srm techniques would do nothing to prevent ocean acidification to fears that ocean fertilization techniques would have unpredictable (and undesirable) ecological side effects
in the most comprehensive review of geoengineering science to date, the royal society identified two distinct approaches: carbon dioxide removal (cdr) techniques, which remove co2 from the atmosphere, and solar radiation management (srm) techniques, which reflect a small percentage of the sun's light and heat back into space.10 cdr techniques include proposals to imitate trees' sequestration of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere by using giant chemical vents to "scrub" the atmosphere (analogous to the carbon capture and storage techniques currently being developed for use on coal-fired power stations) and plans to "fertilize" the oceans by using particles of iron sulphate to stimulate algal blooms (which absorb carbon dioxide). although not strictly an engineering intervention, major global reforestation could also be viewed as a long-term method for cdr. by contrast, srm techniques include suggestions for the placement of trillions of tiny "sunshades" in orbit around the earth to deflect a percentage of solar radiation, and the enhancement of marine cloud albedo using particles of sea salt to deflect sunlight. (see sidebar, "proposed approaches to geoengineering" for further technical detail on geoengineering proposals.) the royal society report included a preliminary assessment of the technical feasibility and safety of specific geoengineering proposals. the uncertainties are considerable, and the potential risks vary enormously across different proposals--from concerns that srm techniques would do nothing to prevent ocean acidification to fears that ocean fertilization techniques would have unpredictable (and undesirable) ecological side effects. more generally, there are significant concerns about the masking effects of some geoengineering approaches. in particular, srm techniques do not address the underlying causes of climate change (i.e., the build up of greenhouse gases), and were such a program to unexpectedly fail, a rapid acceleration of warming might then ensue. figure 1 (reproduced from the royal society report) represents an initial attempt to evaluate a number of geoengineering techniques. according to the society's analysis, it is clear that there is substantial variation in the estimates of the cost, effectiveness, timeliness, and risk of putative geoengineering approaches. a key consideration is that many of the risks of geoengineering are at present highly
Where does cultivation takes place?
cultivation takes place mainly in narrow patches of terraced fields cut into the hill slopes
Which farming are not common?
tenant farming and sharecropping are not common
How the water for household use was obtained?
water for household use was obtained from springs, mountain streams, or man-made rainwater harvesting structures
cultivation takes place mainly in narrow patches of terraced fields cut into the hill slopes. about half of all landholdings are less than 0.5 ha in size, and 70% are less than a hectare. tenant farming and sharecropping are not common. as pointed out by sati (2005) geography and culture (i.e. the way of life in the hills) have created a relatively equitable, if impoverished, land distribution in uttarakhand. the total water requirement for uttarakhand state (including human consumption, animal consumption, agriculture, and industry) is estimated as only 3% of the annual precipitation received. however, rainfall is available for only 100 days, and flows out swiftly from the steep slopes constituting the major part of the state. the cultivable command area (excluding forestland, populated land, and non-irrigable land) of the state is 1.14 million ha, of which 0.55 million ha remains unirrigated and lies primarily in the hilly areas of the state. in the hill districts, the irrigated area is merely 14%, compared with 46% in the foothills and plains government of uttaranchal, 2004 ). the state's draft water policy government of uttaranchal, 2004, p. 1 notes that ''it is a paradox that the local people of the state and their lands are facing shortage of water for domestic consumptive uses in the remaining period of the year.'' uttarakhand (and its neighbouring state himachal pradesh) have had a tradition of water harvesting table 1 ). water for household use was obtained from springs, mountain streams, or man-made rainwater harvesting structures. open ponds and tanks provided water for animals, irrigation, and washing. for human consumption, water was tapped from underground seepages (in baoris/naulas) or springs (dharas). terraced fields were irrigated by diverting water (using boulders and branches) from nearby mountain streams through small gravity flow channels known as guhls. typically a farmer floods his field and then removes a stone plug at the outside edge of the field so that water can flow to the next terrace below. some channels also provide hydropower for gharats (water mills). all these structures were usually common property resources, which were largely owned, used, and maintained by local communities. however, an increasing number of guhls have been taken over by state government agencies, and fallen into disrepair due to lack of a sense of ownership psi, 2003 ). at the national level, there has been a significant shift in thinking with water being increasingly viewed as a commodity, rather than a natural resource. this is reflected in the national
Why is the Sahelian zone generally considered highly vulnerable to climatic fluctuation?
due to the strong dependence of its population on rain-fed agriculture and livestock keeping
What conditions led to massive human displacement?
the recurring droughts of the 1970s and 1980s had devastating implications for livelihoods across the region, where hunger, malnutrition, diseases, and loss of lives and livestock led to massive human displacement
Have recurrent drought conditions improved?
the conditions have since improved and seasonal rainfall has increased again, although the region is still marked by significant interannual variations in rainfall (buontempo, 2009
the sahelian zone is generally considered highly vulnerable to climatic fluctuations due to the strong dependence of its population on rain-fed agriculture and livestock keeping. the recurring droughts of the 1970s and 1980s had devastating implications for livelihoods across the region, where hunger, malnutrition, diseases, and loss of lives and livestock led to massive human displacement. the conditions have since improved and seasonal rainfall has increased again, although the region is still marked by significant interannual variations in rainfall (buontempo, 2009). as a result of this relative recovery in rainfall, environmental research on the sahel has shifted from focusing on 'desertification' to acknowledging the fact that the region has become greener during the last two decades (e.g. hutchinson et al., 2005). although there is general agreement on the long-term climate developments in the region throughout the 20th
What recent findings from ringing programmes for different species confirm?
recent findings from ringing programmes for different species confirm that few stop-over sites are used by branta geese and bewick's swans (beekman et al ., 1996
Where the belt of potential spring fattening-up sites lie?
the belt of potential spring fattening-up sites that lie within the zone bounded by the 3 and 6 1 c isotherms in april will tend to move northwards, which is, however, only marginally possible because of fixed positions of islands and low coastal zones as well as the boundary of the taiga zone
What will decline sharply in tundra habitats (Van der Wal Brooker, 2004) rendering them less suitable for herbivorous water birds.
if indigenous people continue to abandon their traditional way of living by herding reindeer, grass abundance will decline sharply in tundra habitats (van der wal brooker, 2004) rendering them less suitable for herbivorous water birds
recent findings from ringing programmes for different species confirm that few stop-over sites are used by branta geese and bewick's swans (beekman et al ., 1996). these species may be more sensitive to change than those that feed at many sites on migration. bewick's swans and grey geese now winter further north which is in line with a rise in winter temperatures at former sites in ireland, uk, spain, france and belgium in recent decades (monval pirot, 1989). in norway prop et al (1998) demonstrated a northward shift of spring staging area of barnacle geese, which they related to improved climatic conditions, mediated through shifts in agricultural practice with an abandonment of sheep grazing at traditional sites. the belt of potential spring fattening-up sites that lie within the zone bounded by the 3 and 6 1 c isotherms in april will tend to move northwards, which is, however, only marginally possible because of fixed positions of islands and low coastal zones as well as the boundary of the taiga zone. temperature changes of the order of 2-4 1 c are to be expected in the next decades (houghton et al ., 2001), so the consequences are at a measurable time scale. the third area of possible future change lies in the breeding areas. the climate models for arctic russia are not equivocal, suggesting positive trends in some areas and negative temperature trends in others. also the indirect effects on avian herbivores because of rising temperatures are unclear. thermokarst lakes may disappear leading to the lowering of water tables during summer. if indigenous people continue to abandon their traditional way of living by herding reindeer, grass abundance will decline sharply in tundra habitats (van der wal brooker, 2004) rendering them less suitable for herbivorous water birds. this makes future developments in this area the most difficult to forecast. future monitoring of brent, barnacle geese and bewick's swans is thus of special importance in order to document the impact of these changes.
Why has it been difficult to forge international agreements?
by william nordhaus notwithstanding great progress in scientific and economic understanding of climate change, it has proven difficult to forge international agreements because of free-riding, as seen in the defunct kyoto protocol
This study examines what?
this study examines the club as a model for international climate policy
The study is based in what?
based on economic theory and empirical modeling, it finds that without sanctions against non-participants there are no stable coalitions other than those with minimal abatement
by william nordhaus notwithstanding great progress in scientific and economic understanding of climate change, it has proven difficult to forge international agreements because of free-riding, as seen in the defunct kyoto protocol. this study examines the club as a model for international climate policy. based on economic theory and empirical modeling, it finds that without sanctions against non-participants there are no stable coalitions other than those with minimal abatement. by contrast, a regime with small trade penalties on non-participants, a climate club, can induce a large stable coalition with high levels of abatement. jel q54, q58, k32, k33
What fidelity and projected changes in the climate models, used for the IPCC and AR4 assessed about?
assessed with regard to the southern hemisphere extratropical ocean and sea-ice systems
What are the projected changes to the surface wind-field is also central in modifying future extratropical circulation and internal properties?
a robust southward shift of the circumpolar current and subtropical gyres is projected, with a strong spin-up of the atlantic gyre
What the circulation-driven poleward shift of the temperature field explains?
explains much of the midlatitude warming pattern
alexander sen gupta agus santoso andr'ea s. taschetto caroline c. ummenhofer matthew h. england jessica trevena climate change research centre (ccrc), faculty of science, university of new south wales, sydney, nsw, australia. for: journal of climate correspondence author: alex sen gupta, a.sengupta@unsw.edu.au climate change research centre (ccrc), faculty of science, university of new south wales, sydney, nsw, australia fidelity and projected changes in the climate models, used for the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) fourth assessment report (ar4), are assessed with regard to the southern hemisphere extratropical ocean and sea-ice systems. while individual models span different physical parameterisations and resolutions, a major component of inter-model variability results from surface wind differences. projected changes to the surface wind-field is also central in modifying future extratropical circulation and internal properties. a robust southward shift of the circumpolar current and subtropical gyres is projected, with a strong spin-up of the atlantic gyre. an associated increase in the core strength of the circumpolar circulation is evident; however, this does not translate into robust increases in drake passage transport. while an overarching oceanic warming is projected, the circulation-driven poleward shift of the temperature field explains much of the midlatitude warming pattern. the effect of this shift is less clear for salinity, where instead, surface freshwater forcing dominates. surface warming and high-latitude freshwater increases drive intensified stratification, and a shoaling and southward shift of the deep mixed layers. despite large inter-model differences, there is also a robust weakening in bottom water formation and its northward outflow. at the same time the wind intensification invigorates the upwelling of deep water, transporting warm, salty water southwards and upwards, with major implications for sequestration and outgassing of co2. a robust decrease is projected for both the sea-ice concentration and the seasonal cycling of ice volume, potentially altering the salt and heat budget at high-latitudes. 1
What will be highly impacted as river and ocean waters warm?
 fishing industries around the world will be highly impacted as river and ocean waters warm, changing centuries of tradition in their fishing practices
What causes species to migrate for survival?
every species has a temperature window within which it thrives and as temperatures change they will migrate to occupy their ' survival ' temperatures
What has catastrophic impacts on local economies?
the loss of species has often catastrophic impacts on local economies
the loss of species has often catastrophic impacts on local economies. fishing industries around the world will be highly impacted as river and ocean waters warm, changing centuries of tradition in their fishing practices. every species has a temperature window within which it thrives and as temperatures change they will migrate to occupy their ' survival ' temperatures. an extra 1 deg c in temperature pushed haddock, cod, plaice and lemon sole 200 - 400 miles north, according to the wwf (formerly the world wildlife fund). there have been more frequent sightings of species such as hammerhead sharks, triggerfish, sun fish and even red mullet, cuttlefish and black bream
What is the difference between autonomous and purposeful adaptation?
adaptation can be viewed as taking place on two levels: autonomous adaptation, which is the natural or spontaneous response to climate change by affected individuals; and purposeful adaptation, which is a planned response to climate change, typically by governmental or other institutional organizations
What are some reasons for the decline in mosquito-borne diseases?
for example, many formerly endemic mosquito-borne diseases such as malaria, dengue fever, and yellow fever are rare or have disappeared, primarily because of changes in living conditions (such as adequate housing, the use of screens on doors and windows, and the use of air conditioning), changes in behaviors (such as watching television instead of sitting outside during biting times), and public health interventions (such as vector control programs
What are some exmples of mosquito-borne diseases?
for example, many formerly endemic mosquito-borne diseases such as malaria, dengue fever, and yellow fever are rare or have disappeared, primarily because of changes in living conditions (such as adequate housing, the use of screens on doors and windows, and the use of air conditioning), changes in behaviors (such as watching television instead of sitting outside during biting times), and public health interventions (such as vector control programs
understanding the vulnerability of the united states to changes in the ranges or rates of vector-borne diseases is the first step in addressing adaptive capacity. adaptation involves the ability to change behavior or health infrastructure to reduce the potential negative impacts of climate change. adaptation is a function of a number of societal systems, including access to financial resources (both for individuals and populations), technical knowledge, public health infrastructure, and capacity of the health care system. adaptation can be viewed as taking place on two levels: autonomous adaptation, which is the natural or spontaneous response to climate change by affected individuals; and purposeful adaptation, which is a planned response to climate change, typically by governmental or other institutional organizations. anticipatory adaptations are planned responses that take place in advance of climate change. it is important to identify and prioritize anticipatory adaptations to prevent irreversible adverse impacts that can not be mitigated after they occur. some examples of adaptive options are: environmental controls * mosquito control programs (e.g., with pesticides or predator fish species) * community elimination of aquatic breeding sites * window screens, air conditioning, and other personal protective measures. technologic or administrative controls * vaccine, pharmaceutical, and pesticide development * improved and expanded surveillance efforts * education initiatives for health care givers * behavioral controls * proper clothing and use of repellents * following of instructions for prophylactic measures when traveling abroad. little quantitative information is available on adaptation to climate change. insights on potential vulnerabilities and recommendations for policies to promote adaptation can be gained from past experiences in public health. for example, many formerly endemic mosquito-borne diseases such as malaria, dengue fever, and yellow fever are rare or have disappeared, primarily because of changes in living conditions (such as adequate housing, the use of screens on doors and windows, and the use of air conditioning), changes in behaviors (such as watching television instead of sitting outside during biting times), and public health interventions (such as vector control programs). although changes in the range of both ae. aegypti and ae. albopictus could occur with changing climate, the above factors plus the current public health infrastructure, including active disease surveillance and selected vector control, reduce the risk of the increased transmission potential of the disease agents that can be carried by these mosquitoes. maintaining this infrastructure is important to ensure that the risk does not change with changing climate. prioritizing disease risks will differ across the country because of geographic and climatologic variability; therefore, adaptive responses must be tailored to region. the capacity to adapt to potential changes in climate will depend on many factors, including at least maintaining the current level of public health infrastructure; ensuring active surveillance for diseases with potentially large public health impacts; continuing research to further our understanding of the associations among weather, extreme events, and vector-borne diseases; and continuing research into medical advances required for disease prevention, control, and treatment, such as vaccines and methods to deal with drug-resistant strains. for example, very high
What was discovered in Spain by using a three dimensional SOM?
they found spatial precipitation patterns that traditional precipitation index approach is not able to discover, and concluded that three dimensional som is very useful tool on exploratory spatial pattern analysis
What is the data analysis techniques that is becoming popular in recent years?
neural network based machine learning approach, as a generative analysis technique, has received much attention and been applied to tackle several climate problems in recent year
What did Iglesias et al. develop?
iglesias et al. developed a multitask deep fully connected neural network on prediction heat waves trained on historical time series data
climate data analysis requires an array of advanced methodology. neural network based machine learning approach, as a generative analysis technique, has received much attention and been applied to tackle several climate problems in recent year. chattopadhyay et al. developed a nonlinear clustering method based on self organizational map (som) to study the structure evolution of maddenjulian oscillation (mjo). their method does not require selecting leading modes or intraseasonal bandpass filtering in time and space like other methods do. the results show som based method is not only able to capture the gross feature in mjo structure and development but also reveals insights that other methods are not able to discover such as the dipole and tripole structure of outgoing long wave radiation and diabatic heating in mjo. gorricha and costa used a three dimensional som on categorizing and visualizing extreme precipitation patterns over an island in spain. they found spatial precipitation patterns that traditional precipitation index approach is not able to discover, and concluded that three dimensional som is very useful tool on exploratory spatial pattern analysis. more recently, shi et al. implemented a newly developed convolutional long short term memory (lstm) deep neural network for precipitation nowcasting. trained on two dimensional radar map time series, their system is able to outperform the current state-of-art precipitation nowcasting system on various evaluation metrics. iglesias et al. developed a multitask deep fully connected neural network on prediction heat waves trained on historical time series data. they demonstrate that neural network approach is significantly better than linear and logistic regression. and potentially can improve the performance of forecasting extreme heat waves. these studies show that neural network as a generative method and can be applied on various climate problems. in this study, we explore deep cnn on solving climate pattern detection problem.
The argument that the suitability of any adaptation measure has to be?
clarified in each individual case
It is clear that the many competing interests and demands on the resources of national and what?
municipal governments and aid organizations influence political commitment
However, the promotion of adaptation and risk reduction as cross-cutting topics (that should, as a matter of good practice, be incorporated into urban planning) may help to reduce the what?
understanding that they are in direct competition with other fields
the argument that the suitability of any adaptation measure has to be clarified in each individual case is too often used to justify missing integrative concepts in (national and municipal) adaptation strategies and practice.8 if sustainable urban transformation is the aim, adaptation needs to be systematized and systematically incorporated into urban planning practice. this is crucial as even the fundamental principles of traditional planning become questionable in a context of increasing risk and climate change. for example, infrastructure (roads, telecommunication, water supply, etc.) that is bundled into the same space or development corridors may reduce urban resilience, which relies upon redundancy and replaceable elements. improved science-policy integration and decision support systems for organizational learning are a first step forward in assisting city authorities to (further) incorporate mainstream adaptation into urban planning practice. for example, the integration of scientific knowledge into local policies can be promoted through: "translating" scientific outcomes into policy recommendations; training and dissemination of research outcomes; seminars on adaptation and risk reduction focused on the science-policy interface; the creation of opportunities for researchers, practitioners and policymakers to exchange information; the inclusion of policymakers and practitioners in research projects; and increasing the involvement of local government in universities. in addition, decision support systems can provide city authorities with information on: o potential adaptation measures to: (i) avoid or reduce hazards, (ii) minimize location-specific vulnerabilities, and (iii) improve mechanisms and structures for response, and (iv) recovery; o potential adaptation measures, which use physical interventions as an entry point to address interrelated non-physical risk factors of the city-disasters nexus; o potential mainstreaming strategies and step-by-step guidance for their implementation; o methods and tools for achieving sustainable urban risk governance, involving urban authorities, civil society and citizens at risk; o synergies and conflicts that may result from a particular combination of adaptation measures and mainstreaming strategies; o good practice, research and other relevant background documents from low-, middleand highincome nations to facilitate both north-south and south-north knowledge transfer. naturally, the development of an appropriate model and related frameworks (including concepts, guidelines and policy recommendations) requires both scientific input and political will, and is not in itself sufficient to stimulate policy action and urban transformation. it is clear that the many competing interests and demands on the resources of national and municipal governments and aid organizations influence political commitment. however, the promotion of adaptation and risk reduction as cross-cutting topics (that should, as a matter of good practice, be incorporated into urban planning) may help to reduce the understanding that they are in direct competition with other fields.
What is not feasible with a model of the kind used here?
to predict maximum wind speed in a local environment exposed to coastal and sharp orographic obstacles is not feasible with a model of the kind used here
What should the model be capable?
the model should be capable of providing reliable indicators for such predictions
What will mitigate the poleward shift seen in the SH?
the recovery of stratospheric ozone will mitigate the poleward shift seen in the sh
we believe we can have confidence in the change in maximum wind speed. to predict maximum wind speed in a local environment exposed to coastal and sharp orographic obstacles is not feasible with a model of the kind used here, but the model should be capable of providing reliable indicators for such predictions. we see no reason why the relation between a model predictor and a local predictand will change in a warmer climate; consequently the local extremes are not likely to change either. the general poleward shift in the storm tracks is seen in several other studies (as discussed in the introduction); however, in a recent paper by son et al. (2008) it is suggested that the recovery of stratospheric ozone will mitigate the poleward shift seen in the sh. the model simulations used here do include the ozone recovery from the stratospheric minimum in 1998 back to 1970 levels by 2100, though the ozone distributions are specified and not computed via an interactive chemistry model. thus the effect of this on the stratospheric circulation around antarctica and its impact on the tropospheric jets reported by son et al. (2008) is likely included, though we have not checked directly.
When would it be important to consider the boundary conditions that influence the relationship between these two types of conflict?
if relationship conflict plays a mediator role in the relationship between task conflict and affective climate, it would be important to consider the boundary conditions that influence the relationship between these two types of conflict
What did a recent meta-analysis (De Dreu Weingart, 2003) estimate?
a recent meta-analysis (de dreu weingart, 2003) estimated that around 27% of the variance in relationship conflict may be 'predicted' by task conflict
Who found correlations between both kinds of conflict that ranged from .34 to .88 across 11 studies?
across 11 studies, simons and peterson (2000) found correlations between both kinds of conflict that ranged from .34 to .88
task and relationship conflict: the moderator role of team members' interaction if relationship conflict plays a mediator role in the relationship between task conflict and affective climate, it would be important to consider the boundary conditions that influence the relationship between these two types of conflict. a recent meta-analysis (de dreu weingart, 2003) estimated that around 27% of the variance in relationship conflict may be 'predicted' by task conflict. across 11 studies, simons and peterson (2000) found correlations between both kinds of conflict that ranged from .34 to .88. these results suggest that the relationship between the two types of conflict may depend on boundary conditions. however, with the exception of a few studies (e.g. amason sapienza, 1997; simons peterson, 2000), there has been little attention paid to the boundary conditions that constrain the relationship between task and relationship conflict. an argument offered to explain why task conflict and relationship conflict are consistently correlated is that task conflict leads to relationship conflict through a process of misattribution. as we mentioned above, the relationship conflict seems to occur in teams when disagreement on task-related issues is perceived as personal criticism. differences of opinion about work-related issues among people may be taken personally, turning task conflict into relationship conflict. simons and peterson (2000) argued that contextual factors should play a moderating role through their impact on the misattribution process. one of these contextual factors is social interaction among team members. in work teams, social interaction is structured to a great degree by the workflow that stems from task interdependence. this implies that team members must interact and coordinate with each other to carry out their tasks. interaction among team members about team issues, such as team goals, rules and methods, provides the opportunity to constructively handle task-related disagreements, to unambiguously clarify team members' perspectives on task-related issues and, as a result, to avoid the misattribution process through which task conflict becomes relationship conflict. yang and mossholder (2004) drew attention in the same direction, proposing that when there is social interaction among team members, task conflict is less likely to evolve into relationship conflict. they argued that social interactions allow team members to establish a shared knowledge of team objectives, rules and relationship patterns providing an interpretative structure useful for avoiding the misattribution of task conflict. some empirical findings seem to support this hypothesis. lovelace, shapiro, and weingart (2001) showed that collaborative communication occurring during intragroup task disagreements increased members' concern and care about the other group members. this would make it difficult for task disagreement to be perceived as personal conflict. thus, we suggest the following hypothesis:
How were in situ rates of soil respiration measured?
in situ rates of soil respiration were measured using a portable co2 infrared gas analyser (egm-4; pp systems, amesbury, usa) linked to a soil respiration chamber (src-1; pp systems
What was done to the vegetation the day before each measurement?
the day before each measurement, all above-ground vegetation was removed from the collar using scissors
How were the rates of soil respiration determined from the CO2 concentration measurements?
the rates of soil respiration were determined from this by fitting a quadratic equation to the change in co2 concentration with time
in situ rates of soil respiration were measured using a portable co2 infrared gas analyser (egm-4; pp systems, amesbury, usa) linked to a soil respiration chamber (src-1; pp systems). at the beginning of the vegetation period, permanent pvc collars (10 cm diameter, 5 cm height, light grey colour) were installed in every plot with a 1-cm edge above soil surface to realize a closed system when the soil respiration chamber was placed on the collar during measurement. the day before each measurement, all above-ground vegetation was removed from the collar using scissors. during the timeframe of 8:00-12:00 hours, the soil respiration chamber was placed for 240 s on the collar of every plot. an internal fan realized the even distribution of air and the infrared gas analyser monitored the build-up of co2 within the system. the rates of soil respiration were determined from this by fitting a quadratic equation to the change in co2 concentration with time. for this study, we analysed the soil respiration rates at second 240 of each high-diversity grassland plot including a. elatius, h. lanatus, p. lanceolata and g. pratense on the last day of drought manipulation.
A natural habitat does not imply?
naturalhabitatdoesnotimplyanenvironmentunaffectedbyhumanactivities,but an environment where the species that make up the microbial population are those selected by interaction with the environment and among themselves
What influences microbial growth according to the paragraph above?
both physical and chemical characteristics of the environment influence microbial growth
Physical factors act as selective agents for microbial growth, true or false
physical factors usually act as selective agents, while chemical factors can or cannot be selective
anaturalhabitatdoesnotimplyanenvironmentunaffectedbyhumanactivities,but an environment where the species that make up the microbial population are those selected by interaction with the environment and among themselves. nutritional and physical conditions enable the selection of the organisms better adapted to the environment, which may vary quickly and frequently due to changes in the supply of nutrients or in the physical conditions. both physical and chemical characteristics of the environment influence microbial growth. physical factors usually act as selective agents, while chemical factors can or cannot be selective. some elements, such as carbon and nitrogen, which are usually required in relatively large amounts, can be very important in the selection of the prevailing species. micronutrients, which are required in very small amounts, generally have little or no selective influence (speece, 1986). anaerobic digestion is particularly susceptible to the strict control of the environmental conditions, as the process requires an interaction between fermentative and methanogenic organisms. a successful process depends on an accurate balance of the ecological system. special attention should be given to the methanogenic microorganisms,astheyareconsideredhighlyvulnerabletochangesintheenvironmental conditions. the main environmental requirements of anaerobic digestion are commented below (speece, 1983).
Why have local variations in climate change not been adressed or countered effectively?
the complexities and uncertainties related to forests and climate change adaptation are magnified by enormous geographical and human variation. there are powerful forces and traditions that discourage attention to local variation--such attention is typically seen as too complex, too difficult, too costly and impractical
What local and institutional changes are needed to save the world's forests?
to successfully address climate change adaptation in any of the world's populated forests, a number of institutional changes will be needed. macqueen and vermeulen (2006), for instance, point to the need for 'increasing local ownership and access to forest resources; developing local monitoring and analysis of climate change impacts, and building institutional responsibility for adaptation strategies', among others. agrawal (2008) emphasises the importance of assessing and strengthening local institutions, developing locally appropriate solutions and linking actors at various scales. most fundamentally, managers at all levels will need to use any existing mechanisms that allow people in particular settings to adapt their own systems more effectively as their conditions change
How can forest dwellers and other forest communities be involved in fighting climate change?
macqueen and vermeulen (2006), for instance, point to the need for 'increasing local ownership and access to forest resources; developing local monitoring and analysis of climate change impacts, and building institutional responsibility for adaptation strategies', among others. agrawal (2008) emphasises the importance of assessing and strengthening local institutions, developing locally appropriate solutions and linking actors at various scales. most fundamentally, managers at all levels will need to use any existing mechanisms that allow people in particular settings to adapt their own systems more effectively as their conditions change
building on the local the complexities and uncertainties related to forests and climate change adaptation are magnified by enormous geographical and human variation. there are powerful forces and traditions that discourage attention to local variation--such attention is typically seen as too complex, too difficult, too costly and impractical. yet the importance, indeed the necessity, to attend to local variation has become increasingly obvious (e.g., agrawal 2008). it is now time to 'bite the bullet' and make the institutional changes needed to allow us to build on the local, rather than trying to make broad-scale plans that will inevitably fail in most localities. to successfully address climate change adaptation in any of the world's populated forests, a number of institutional changes will be needed. macqueen and vermeulen (2006), for instance, point to the need for 'increasing local ownership and access to forest resources; developing local monitoring and analysis of climate change impacts, and building institutional responsibility for adaptation strategies', among others. agrawal (2008) emphasises the importance of assessing and strengthening local institutions, developing locally appropriate solutions and linking actors at various scales. most fundamentally, managers at all levels will need to use any existing mechanisms that allow people in particular settings to adapt their own systems more effectively as their conditions change.
What are the factors affected by climate change according to Hofmann et al?
in their summary of research as part of the canada country study, hofmann et al.(6)stated that climate change will have a range of impacts on both the hydrological cycle and water uses
What are the regional impacts of climate change?
regional projections include declining great lakes water levels, decreasing soil moisture in southern canada, and a reduction of wetlands in the prairies
What is the cause of increased conflict between water users?
another key concern is increased conflict between water users due to increasing mismatches between supply and demand
in their summary of research as part of the canada country study, hofmann et al.(6)stated that climate change will have a range of impacts on both the hydrological cycle and water uses. for the nation as a whole, climate change will likely increase precipitation, evaporation, water temperatures and hydrological variability. these changes will combine to negatively impact water quality. regional projections include declining great lakes water levels, decreasing soil moisture in southern canada, and a reduction of wetlands in the prairies. another key concern is increased conflict between water users due to increasing mismatches between supply and demand. previous literature suggests infrastructure modification, management adjustment and development of new water policies as methods of adaptation in the water resources sector.(6)uncertainties in impact projections have led many authors to advocate the implementation of 'no regrets' adaptation options. these measures would benefit canadians, irrespective of climate change, as they address other environmental issues. the engagement of stakeholders, including the general public, is critical to the development of effective adaptation strategies. perhaps most importantly, the literature notes that water managers must be encouraged to address climate change impacts in their long-term planning activities. much of the research on water resources and climate change has concentrated on the physical aspects of the issue, particularly hydrological impacts,(7)and less so on the economic and social aspects. this imbalance and the resulting knowledge gaps have been recognized in the literature, and in the reports and proceedings of numerous workshops and similar forums that have addressed climate change impacts and adaptation in canada.
What does Discounting Stern (2007) suggest?
discounting stern (2007) uses a discount rate on future consumption of 1.4 percent. this is based on the prescriptive approach, which decomposes the discount rate on the consumption of future generations into the pure rate of time preference and the product of the growth rate in consumption (assumed to be 1.3 percent in that study) and the elasticity of marginal utility with respect to consumption (assumed to be 1
What is the choice of a value for the pure rate of time preference?
choosing a value for the pure rate of time preference, the rate at which the utility of future generations is discounted just because they are in the future, is viewed as a strictly ethical judgment. and ethical neutrality, in this approach, essentially requires setting the pure rate of time preference essentially equal to zero9 (the fact that individuals over their lifetime prefer early utility to later utility is not viewed as an argument for discounting one generation over another
discounting stern (2007) uses a discount rate on future consumption of 1.4 percent. this is based on the prescriptive approach, which decomposes the discount rate on the consumption of future generations into the pure rate of time preference and the product of the growth rate in consumption (assumed to be 1.3 percent in that study) and the elasticity of marginal utility with respect to consumption (assumed to be 1). choosing a value for the pure rate of time preference, the rate at which the utility of future generations is discounted just because they are in the future, is viewed as a strictly ethical judgment. and ethical neutrality, in this approach, essentially requires setting the pure rate of time preference essentially equal to zero9 (the fact that individuals over their lifetime prefer early utility to later utility is not viewed as an argument for discounting one generation over another). discriminating against people just because they are in the future is viewed as being akin to discriminating against people in the present generation just because they live in different countries (heal 2009).10
What strongly controlled landscape fuel patterns?
for instance, the unprecedented high population of farmers around the mediterranean sea during recent history (nineteenth and early twentieth century), strongly controlled landscape fuel patterns
What caused the depopulation of landscapes with consequent reduction of agriculture, grazing, controlled fires, and wood collection?
in contrast, industrialization of the european mediterranean region resulted in a depopulation of landscapes with consequent reduction of agriculture, grazing, controlled fires, and wood collection
What year did Spain have severe drought and heat?
with especially severe drought years and heat waves; as observed in spain (1994, 2012), portugal (2003), greece (2007), and russia (2010
socio-economic and political change in rural societies have a strong impact on land-cover patterns and population densities, and thus on fire regimes; the nature of these changes (for example, favoring or limiting rural lifestyle) would determine the direction of the fire regime change. for instance, the unprecedented high population of farmers around the mediterranean sea during recent history (nineteenth and early twentieth century), strongly controlled landscape fuel patterns. the extensive agricultural areas, large herds of livestock in the surrounding landscapes, and the intensive use of forest products (firewood, wood for house and boat building, fuel for pottery and food ovens, and so on) depleted fuels and limited fire activity, as can be currently observed in many north african countries. in contrast, industrialization of the european mediterranean region resulted in a depopulation of landscapes with consequent reduction of agriculture, grazing, controlled fires, and wood collection, with the associated sudden buildup of fuels on these abandoned landscapes. this fuel buildup in association with the increased ignitions at the wildland-urban interface, has resulted in an increase of large high-intensity fires (pausas 2004 figure 3 ). similarly, the collapse of the soviet union induced a depopulation of rural areas, a reduction in grazing pressure and a subsequent abrupt increase in area burned (dubinin and others 2011 ). in the mediterranean basin and the former soviet union, fire activity is also related to climatic characteristics (that is, more fires in dry years), but the intensity and impacts of such fires were substantially higher after the rural collapse than in previous eras. in short, fire activity was previously fuel-limited and then became more susceptible to drought and climatic changes (drought-driven fire regimes, pausas and ferna'ndez-mun~ oz 2012 ). a consequence of this process is the recent large fire activity associated with especially severe drought years and heat waves; as observed in spain (1994, 2012), portugal (2003), greece (2007), and russia (2010). the increased fire activity due to the collapse of the rural lifestyle is well documented in the mediterranean basin and the former soviet union, but may be currently occurring in other old world regions such as africa and asia.
What are animals?
many fauna associated with mangroves are mobile, either having larvae that are distributed within the water column
What is a forest system?
or populations that can migrate to more suitable habitat with changes in forest structure and productivity
What is human activity?
mangrove losses that may occur with increased frequency and intensity of storms are likely to reduce diversity and abundance of fauna, as has been seen with other disturbances118. changes in the availability or spatial arrangement of interconnected habitats (seagrass - mangroves - high intertidal), due to sea level rise, storms damage or human activity could also have a negative impact on fauna and food webs (chapter 19
many fauna associated with mangroves are mobile, either having larvae that are distributed within the water column, or populations that can migrate to more suitable habitat with changes in forest structure and productivity. fauna that are confined to habitats that are at risk from sea level rise (eg high intertidal salt marsh) will be more susceptible to climate change than those using habitats that can migrate spatially, but may not be greatly reduced in area (eg seaward mangrove fringes). mangrove losses that may occur with increased frequency and intensity of storms are likely to reduce diversity and abundance of fauna, as has been seen with other disturbances118. changes in the availability or spatial arrangement of interconnected habitats (seagrass - mangroves - high intertidal), due to sea level rise, storms damage or human activity could also have a negative impact on fauna and food webs (chapter 19).
What methodology is used and how is it applied in research?
predicting changes in species geographic distributions into the future is an important yet exceptionally challenging endeavor. here, biology and the spatial and computational sciences have the opportunity to provide society with information critical for a variety of pressing environmental issues, including applications to agriculture, public health, and conservation biology.1-4two fundamental items must be predicted. first, we aim to estimate changes in which particular areas will hold suitable abiotic conditions for the species (sometimes also taking into account key biotic interactions). second, we then need to forecast changes in the species' distribution in response to those environmental changes. some modeling strategies aim to predict changes in species distributions by combining factors related to niches and suitable environmental conditions with those related to occurrence, dispersal, and establishment into a single modeling framework.5-8in contrast to that paradigm, a purely niche-based model first estimates suitability on the basis of present environmental data. that niche model is then applied to future conditions to estimate the areas that will be suitable, a critical input for a spatially explicit dispersal/demographic simulation that then considers factors affecting the species' occurrence, dispersal, and establishment. following a copious literature
Predicting changes in the geographic distribution of species in the future can generate knowledge to be applied in which areas?
biology and the spatial and computational sciences have the opportunity to provide society with information critical for a variety of pressing environmental issues, including applications to agriculture, public health, and conservation biology
what items will be predicted?
two fundamental items must be predicted. first, we aim to estimate changes in which particular areas will hold suitable abiotic conditions for the species (sometimes also taking into account key biotic interactions). second, we then need to forecast changes in the species' distribution in response to those environmental changes
predicting changes in species geographic distributions into the future is an important yet exceptionally challenging endeavor. here, biology and the spatial and computational sciences have the opportunity to provide society with information critical for a variety of pressing environmental issues, including applications to agriculture, public health, and conservation biology.1-4two fundamental items must be predicted. first, we aim to estimate changes in which particular areas will hold suitable abiotic conditions for the species (sometimes also taking into account key biotic interactions). second, we then need to forecast changes in the species' distribution in response to those environmental changes. some modeling strategies aim to predict changes in species distributions by combining factors related to niches and suitable environmental conditions with those related to occurrence, dispersal, and establishment into a single modeling framework.5-8in contrast to that paradigm, a purely niche-based model first estimates suitability on the basis of present environmental data. that niche model is then applied to future conditions to estimate the areas that will be suitable, a critical input for a spatially explicit dispersal/demographic simulation that then considers factors affecting the species' occurrence, dispersal, and establishment. following a copious literature,9
What does The amplitude of the seasonal cycle in temperature provides?
the amplitude of the seasonal cycle in temperature provides a strong constraint on climate sensitivity. using a neural network and climatological data, and subject to the assumptions discussed above, we find a median and 5%-95% range for climate sensitivity of 3.3 and 2.2-4.4 k when treating three observational and reanalysis datasets as equally plausible
What does method suggests ?
while the lower bound (5%) is relatively robust at 1.5-2 k, the upper one (95%) is sensitive to the assumptions made and varies between 5 and 6.5 k. unlike some studies based on the transient warming of the twentieth century, which show a large probability for high values of sensitivity, this method suggests an upper bound (95% level) on climate sensitivity at about 6.5 k for most cases considered, and above about 5 k when using an optimal combination of regions and degrees of freedom and making our most optimistic assumptions about the origins of model-data inconsistency
What does the method shows?
the 5%-95% confidence range is in broad agreement with the range of climate sensitivities spanned by the aogcm models currently in use, but with a somewhat longer tail at high values that is not sampled by any aogcm used for the upcoming ipcc report. equally important as the constraints placed on the upper bound, this method indicates that climate sensitivity is very unlikely below 1.5-2 k, independent of all assumptions
the amplitude of the seasonal cycle in temperature provides a strong constraint on climate sensitivity. using a neural network and climatological data, and subject to the assumptions discussed above, we find a median and 5%-95% range for climate sensitivity of 3.3 and 2.2-4.4 k when treating three observational and reanalysis datasets as equally plausible. this however ignores structural uncertainty and thus does not capture the full uncertainty range. including a simple representation of structural uncertainty by increasing the uncertainty of the observations widens the uncertainty range. while the lower bound (5%) is relatively robust at 1.5-2 k, the upper one (95%) is sensitive to the assumptions made and varies between 5 and 6.5 k. unlike some studies based on the transient warming of the twentieth century, which show a large probability for high values of sensitivity, this method suggests an upper bound (95% level) on climate sensitivity at about 6.5 k for most cases considered, and above about 5 k when using an optimal combination of regions and degrees of freedom and making our most optimistic assumptions about the origins of model-data inconsistency. the 5%-95% confidence range is in broad agreement with the range of climate sensitivities spanned by the aogcm models currently in use, but with a somewhat longer tail at high values that is not sampled by any aogcm used for the upcoming ipcc report. equally important as the constraints placed on the upper bound, this method indicates that climate sensitivity is very unlikely below 1.5-2 k, independent of all assumptions. this supports the view that the net feedbacks are substantially positive and it provides a lower bound on the climate change we have to expect in the future. while not allowing to completely exclude very high values of climate sensitivity, this approach allows one to attach probabilities to any value of sensitivity within the 5%-95% interval, and thus provides a basis for probabilistic projections based on large climate model ensembles.
What needs to be examined to add to the partial explanations for why truly transformational responses to climate change are still so rare?
without examining the mediating role of politics and power in times of uncertainty and change these perspectives will only offer partial explanations for why truly transformational responses to climate change are still so rare
What is necessary before illustrating how social theory may improve our understanding of the origins of transformational agendas and their agitation for expression?
before illustrating how social theory may improve our understanding of the origins of transformational agendas and their agitation for expression, a brief survey of existing interdisciplinary work in this vein is necessary
What effects are undertheorized?
in particular, the enabling/constraining effects of political structures and socially embedded power relations are undertheorized
the above review has outlined considerable gaps in the explanatory power of st and se frameworks, especially when applied to contexts of society-wide transformational change, for example, those associated with climate change mitigation and adaptation. in particular, the enabling/constraining effects of political structures and socially embedded power relations are undertheorized. without examining the mediating role of politics and power in times of uncertainty and change these perspectives will only offer partial explanations for why truly transformational responses to climate change are still so rare. before illustrating how social theory may improve our understanding of the origins of transformational agendas and their agitation for expression, a brief survey of existing interdisciplinary work in this vein is necessary. in addition to highlighting the hegemony of neoliberal ideas about unrestricted markets and individualism,40,77,88critics of the mainstream climate change and systems research agenda have suggested importing concepts from other disciplines as well as combining them with completely different perspectives. for instance, in order to get at the ' politics behind policy, ' to (re)politicize tm and adaptive governance, meadowcroft21and kern30
According to this paragraph, which conclusion from the survey was made first?
what can we conclude from this survey? first, it is clear that uncertainty is here to stay
According to this paragraph, why is it difficult for climate economists to provide analytical tools that can be used to inform climate change policy choices?
our job as economists is to assess the welfare consequences of climate policies as best we can and provide analytical tools that can be used to inform policy choices. however, the methods that we use to evaluate small-scale projects with welldefined, short-run consequences are unlikely to be appropriate for a problem as global, long run, and uncertain as climate change
Why do the authors believe that if their presented uncertainties led to policy paralysis, it would be a big mistake?
second, although the nature and extent of these uncertainties could lead to policy paralysis, we believe this would be a big mistake. we have more than enough information about climate change to understand that it is a serious problem that requires immediate policy attention: uncertainty does not imply ignorance
this article has reviewed the sources of uncertainty about climate change, methods of representing them, and alternatives to the expected utility approach to decision making under uncertainty. what can we conclude from this survey? first, it is clear that uncertainty is here to stay. although we are constantly making incremental progress, it seems unlikely that our knowledge about the scientific and socioeconomic consequences of climate change will radically improve over the next few decades. however, considerably more could be done to effectively characterize our uncertainty about socioeconomic impacts. end-to-end analyses, which integrate uncertainty in both climate science and climate impacts estimates, should be an important part of such efforts. point estimates of impacts based on projections from a single climate model are not particularly informative. we also have to recognize, however, that many of the most important empirical uncertainties, such as those about future abatement technologies, the long-run growth path of the global economy, and the adaptability of future societies to an altered climate, are fundamentally unknowable. we simply do not have credible tools for making such predictions. second, although the nature and extent of these uncertainties could lead to policy paralysis, we believe this would be a big mistake. we have more than enough information about climate change to understand that it is a serious problem that requires immediate policy attention: uncertainty does not imply ignorance. our job as economists is to assess the welfare consequences of climate policies as best we can and provide analytical tools that can be used to inform policy choices. however, the methods that we use to evaluate small-scale projects with welldefined, short-run consequences are unlikely to be appropriate for a problem as global, long run, and uncertain as climate change. this offers us an opportunity to develop an inclusive and creative approach to policy analysis that incorporates a variety of viewpoints. as illustrated by the debate about discounting, the decision tools and welfare parameters we use to evaluate policy can have as much of an effect on policy recommendations as the data themselves. this is no less true when thinking about how to incorporate uncertainty into our models: different approaches can lead to radically different policy recommendations. the survey of the decision theory literature we have presented here indicates that there are many promising approaches to decision making under deep uncertainty that provide new methods for representing our information about the nature and impacts of climate change, and allow us to make policy recommendations that account for the limitations of our knowledge. when combined with empirical inputs that represent both what we do and do not know, such tools could provide useful policy guidance. it is important to recognize, however, that the world is under no obligation to agree with our models. we must expect the unexpected and
In what Figure are the predictions shown?
the predictions with 95% prediction intervals are shown in figure 11 and can be compared with the observed values in the same period
Are the predictions of the model and the observed values similar?
the model predictions seem to agree reasonably well with the observed values with respect to the given prediction uncertainties
Is the estimate of climate sensitivity more uncertain?
the corresponding estimate of the climate sensitivity (panel (b), figure 6) is naturally much more uncertain (r 90 d 2:52 than when all data up to 2007 were used (r 90 d 1:17 
the predictions with 95% prediction intervals are shown in figure 11 and can be compared with the observed values in the same period. the model predictions seem to agree reasonably well with the observed values with respect to the given prediction uncertainties. the corresponding estimate of the climate sensitivity (panel (b), figure 6) is naturally much more uncertain (r 90 d 2:52 than when all data up to 2007 were used (r 90 d 1:17 ). we further re-fit the model once more, now using data up to and including 2000 (panel (c), figure 6). the uncertainty of the climate sensitivity is then smaller (r 90 d 1:39 than when using data up to 1990 but larger than when all data were used, as we could expect.
What is not appearing to temper promises?
at present, inaccurate coverage in these uk tabloid newspapers do not appear to temper promises for such cuts with distant time horizons
When may problems emerge?
problems may emerge when these presently lofty goals have to translate into multi-scale regulatory measures
What may examining these dynamic processes and feedbacks help to expand?
examining these dynamic processes and feedbacks can help to expand current explorations of nonnationstate actors--such as mass media workers--involved in dynamically changing climate governance. moreover, lessons learned here in the uk context seek to illuminate challenges in other contexts
through content analysis of media representations of anthropogenic climate change in the sun daily mail express and the mirror as well as interviews with journalists and editors, this project contributes to ongoing investigations related to what media representations mean for ongoing climate science-policy interactions as well as potentialities for public engagement. in terms of greenhouse gas mitigation in the uk context, relatively aggressive emissions reductions commitments have been made by both of the prominent national political parties: members of both new labour and the tory parties have proposed reductions in the range of 60-80% below 1990 levels by 2050. at present, inaccurate coverage in these uk tabloid newspapers do not appear to temper promises for such cuts with distant time horizons. however, at present they remain promises. problems may emerge when these presently lofty goals have to translate into multi-scale regulatory measures. divergent uk tabloid newspaper coverage of anthropogenic climate change found in this study may diminish public support for concrete greenhouse gas mitigation programs when the time for behavioral change comes. amid a number of nonlinear factors, uk tabloid media representations may be an underconsidered element shaping potential future public perceptions. while uk tabloid newspapers may be deemed secondarily influential to current policy discourse and decision-making at national and international levels (as noted above), the success of future climate mitigation policies may depend significantly on these newspaper sources and their many working class readers. specifically, as ongoing adherence to the journalistic norm of balanced reporting has contributed to a skewed public understanding of human contributions to climate change, it may continue to significantly contribute--along with other factors--to eventual public resistance to climate mitigation and adaptation plans in the uk. continued considerations to be pursued further include how various climate change issues are framed in the uk tabloid press, what the tone of coverage has been in both the headlines and text in these newspapers, and how these factors may or may not contribute to uk working class consciousness as well as interactions between neoliberalism and environmental challenges. examining these dynamic processes and feedbacks can help to expand current explorations of nonnationstate actors--such as mass media workers--involved in dynamically changing climate governance. moreover, lessons learned here in the uk context seek to illuminate challenges in other contexts. while these segments of the population have been of secondary importance in previous science-policy and science-media-policy analyses, such examinations need to take on a more central role, as these segments of citizenry are critical components of social movements and potential public pressure for improved climate policy action worldwide.
From a technical sense name 3 items which should be evaluated for there effectiveness used in flood-prone locations?
n a technical sense there is a need to evaluate the effectiveness of existing health protection, education, warning, evacuation, monitoring, health care, water and sanitation, and system preparedness measures used in flood-prone locations
Do the responses to 'non-emergency' floods need to be analysed ?
it is important also to analyse responses to 'non-emergency' floods as well as to extreme events
Name two key themes of research interest?
two key themes of research interest in this respect are the role of community-based flood risk management approaches in relation to health in different settings, and the prospects for mainstreaming health risk more fully into disaster planning at national level. the potential for climate change to intensify or alter flood patterns only serves to heighten the research need
in a technical sense there is a need to evaluate the effectiveness of existing health protection, education, warning, evacuation, monitoring, health care, water and sanitation, and system preparedness measures used in flood-prone locations (greenough et al., 2001; malilay, 1997; who, 2002). there is a need for health impact assessment of response measures. that means assessing not only the potential for measures to interrupt the pathways toward ill-health, but also assessing how readily they are taken up. similar requirements exist for testing novel adaptation options: questions of their potential performance need to be accompanied by assessment of how feasible, appropriate and accessible they may be in different social contexts. improved understanding of the effectiveness of options then needs to be translated into implications for policy on, and organisation of, flood response. this may need to be coupled with innovative work on improved methods for disseminating best practice response measures. evaluation of effectiveness can apply in all the spheres of response we have considered in the chapter. in regard to mental health care, for example: 'an ongoing goal might be to identify and explain the factors that enable an individual to creatively cope and even grow in the midst of forces that threaten to overwhelm and destroy. this knowledge might then be utilized to develop intervention programs that maximize the chances for successful coping.' (smith 1996, no page). it is important also to analyse responses to 'non-emergency' floods as well as to extreme events. very few studies at present examine how people cope with the health implications posed by predictable seasonal flooding. in parallel, there is ample opportunity for social science approaches to strengthen our understanding of processes of response by people and institutions to the health impacts of flooding. that means analysing perceptions of health risk and coping strategies of affected populations and organisations, and the economic, social, cultural and political constraints and opportunities that shape capacity to adapt. as mccluskey (2001, p17) suggests for the household level: ' in particular there is a need to understand better the coping mechanisms of the affected populations, particularly those who are not (or chose not to be) displaced, how they adapt at the household level to diminish risk and how important underlying levels of awareness are, such as risks and what influences this (literacy, level of education, previous exposure to health promotion)'. social scientific analysis should target not just how resources and assets affect capacities and decisions, but also examine the role of structural factors within society at large that may define the parameters within which decisions and actions can be made. the latter might include, for example, the norms of organisation and policy within health systems, processes of risk communication to vulnerable populations, or cultural norms on gender roles within society. two key themes of research interest in this respect are the role of community-based flood risk management approaches in relation to health in different settings, and the prospects for mainstreaming health risk more fully into disaster planning at national level. the potential for climate change to intensify or alter flood patterns only serves to heighten the research need. on the one hand we need better knowledge of the nature of future risk from floods from advances in modelling and prediction that will support the development and fine-tuning of adaptation strategies. these have to take into account complexities relating to the multi-causality of ill health. in this respect, important insights may be gained from analysis of health risk and response in areas currently experiencing
Among whom were Self-report surveys collected?
7,299 ethnically diverse students (47.8% males, 52.2% females) in 5th, 8th, and 11th grades in 78 schools or community centers
Where were the Self-report surveys collected from?
schools or community centers across colorado
What does least squares regression analyses indicate?
self-esteem, school climate, and normative approval measured at time 1 significantly predicted self-reported bullying perpetration 1 year later at time 2, controlling for time 1 bullying. further, the effect of self-esteem on bullying perpetration was moderated by perceptions of school climate. when perceptions of school climate were negative (indicating poor school climate), high self-esteem predicted higher levels of bullying perpetration. in contrast, when perceptions of school climate were positive, high
the current study examined the relations among self-esteem, approving normative beliefs about bullying, school climate, and bullying perpetration using a large, longitudinal sample of children from elementary, middle, and high school. self-report surveys were collected at two points in time over the course of 1 year from 7,299 ethnically diverse students (47.8% males, 52.2% females) in 5th, 8th, and 11th grades in 78 schools or community centers across colorado. results of ordinary least squares regression analyses indicated that self-esteem, school climate, and normative approval measured at time 1 significantly predicted self-reported bullying perpetration 1 year later at time 2, controlling for time 1 bullying. further, the effect of self-esteem on bullying perpetration was moderated by perceptions of school climate. when perceptions of school climate were negative (indicating poor school climate), high self-esteem predicted higher levels of bullying perpetration. in contrast, when perceptions of school climate were positive, high
What three sets of sensitivity studies were carried out?
three main sets of sensitivity studies were carried out: the first estimates the magnitude of internal variability, which is needed to evaluate the significance of changes in the simulated climate induced by any model modification. the second is devoted to the role of crcm configuration as a source of uncertainty, in particular the sensitivity to nesting technique, domain size, and driving reanalysis. the third study aims to assess the relative importance of the previously estimated sensitivities by performing two additional sensitivity experiments
What is internal variability in these models caused by?
 results show that the internal variability, triggered by differences in initial conditions
What are examples of uncertainty originated by the CRCM configuration latitude?
uncertainty originated by the crcm configuration latitude (freedom of choice among domain sizes, nesting techniques and reanalysis dataset
this work is a first step in the analysis of uncertainty sources in the rcm-simulated climate over north america. three main sets of sensitivity studies were carried out: the first estimates the magnitude of internal variability, which is needed to evaluate the significance of changes in the simulated climate induced by any model modification. the second is devoted to the role of crcm configuration as a source of uncertainty, in particular the sensitivity to nesting technique, domain size, and driving reanalysis. the third study aims to assess the relative importance of the previously estimated sensitivities by performing two additional sensitivity experiments: one in which the reanalysis driving data is replaced by data generated by the second generation coupled global climate model (cgcm2), and another in which a different crcm version is used. results show that the internal variability, triggered by differences in initial conditions, is much smaller than the sensitivity to any other source. results also show that levels of uncertainty originating from liberty of choices in the definition of configuration parameters are comparable among themselves and are smaller than those due to the choice of cgcm or crcm version used. these results suggest that uncertainty originated by the crcm configuration latitude (freedom of choice among domain sizes, nesting techniques and reanalysis dataset), although important, does not seem to be a major obstacle to climate downscaling. finally, with the aim of evaluating the combined effect of the different uncertainties, the ensemble spread is estimated for a subset of the analysed simulations. results show that downscaled surface temperature is in general more uncertain in the northern regions, while precipitation is more uncertain in the central and eastern us. 3
What is perceived by many states as a costly affair?
achieving a rapid reduction in emissions is still perceived by many states as a costly affair
Where was shift in attitudes about low carbon economy visible?
this shift in attitudes was clearly visible in the run-up to the 2015 paris climate summit
At what summit did the Chinese government agree to reduce the carbon intensity of its economy?
having already agreed at the copenhagen summit to reduce the carbon intensity of its economy, the chinese government
achieving a rapid reduction in emissions is still perceived by many states as a costly affair, but major emitters have grown more confident that a gradual shift towards a low-carbon economy will not necessarily harm their long-term growth strategies. this shift in attitudes was clearly visible in the run-up to the 2015 paris climate summit. having already agreed at the copenhagen summit to reduce the carbon intensity of its economy, the chinese government now signalled that it was willing to commit to no further rise in ghg emissions after 2030.21 the united states, too, has indicated a greater willingness to work with
What are the technical changes noticed regarding to the consequenes of the biding cap in the constrained country?
we start by noting that allowing for directed technical change effectively provides the economy with an additional instrument to cope with the consequences of the of a binding cap in the constrained country
What does induced-technology effect of a unilateral emission constraint means according to the text?
changes in the composition of technology may enable the unconstrained country to meet the increased demand for energy intensive goods while diverting less labour from its relatively more productive use in the yl sector
What is the central point of this analysis?
we focus on the central point of our analysis and derive our main results comparing the effects of an emission cap across regimes of technical change
in this section we focus on the central point of our analysis and derive our main results comparing the effects of an emission cap across regimes of technical change. we start by noting that allowing for directed technical change effectively provides the economy with an additional instrument to cope with the consequences of the of a binding cap in the constrained country. changes in the composition of technology may enable the unconstrained country to meet the increased demand for energy intensive goods while diverting less labour from its relatively more productive use in the yl sector. this is what we call the induced-technology effect of a unilateral emission constraint. we will show that this effect has the opposite sign to the terms-of-trade effect introduced above and hence tends to reduce carbon leakage. we can compare the two versions of the model using the le chatelier principle (see e.g. silberberg 1990). taking the total differential of (16) and rearranging we can write the total effect of a change in the emission cap on emissions in the unconstrained country as: [?] lu e
What do forests provide for many First Nations and Metis communities?
forests are a vital component of aboriginal culture and heritage, providing food, medicinal plants and resources for many first nations and metis communities
To date, what did research in Canada and internationally tended to focus primarily on?
to date, research in canada and internationally has tended to focus primarily on the response of individual species and ecosystems to changing climate
How can appropriate adaptation help?
appropriate adaptation will help reduce the negative impacts of climate change while allowing the forest sector to take advantage of any new opportunities that may be presented
furthermore, forests are a vital component of aboriginal culture and heritage, providing food, medicinal plants and resources for many first nations and metis communities. climate is one of many variables that affect forest distribution, health and productivity, and has a strong influence on disturbance regimes. according to the third assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc), globally averaged surface air temperatures are projected to increase by 1.4-5.8degc by the year 2100,(2)with significant consequences for most elements of the global climate system. the net impact of such climate changes on forestry and forest-dependent communities in canada would be a function of a wide range of biophysical and socio-economic impacts that would be both positive and negative. to date, research in canada and internationally has tended to focus primarily on the response of individual species and ecosystems to changing climate. in contrast, the potential social and economic implications of climate change for the canadian forest sector have received far less attention. reflecting these trends, this review emphasizes the potential biophysical impacts of climate change on forests while recognizing the importance of expanding our capacity to address socio-economic impacts as well. in addition to changes in the climate, forests will also be stressed by other factors such as land cover and land use changes, related to both human activity and natural processes. when these variables are considered in conjunction with limitations imposed by the uncertainties of climate models, especially regarding future changes in precipitation patterns, it is difficult to project the impacts of climate change on forests at the regional and local levels. although research is ongoing to address these issues, understanding the vulnerability of both forests and forestry practices to climate change is essential for forestry management planning. appropriate adaptation will help reduce the negative impacts of climate change while allowing the forest sector to take advantage of any new opportunities that may be presented.
How will the impact of Global Warming on communities be?
the impact of global warming on communities will be complex
How was the variation of ectotherms?
all ectotherms had higher mean disassembly than endotherms, but the variation among ectotherms was greater than the variation between endotherms and ectotherms
the impact of global warming on communities will be complex (gilman et al. 2010), likely varying among taxa and locations. our study represents a first approximation of how shifts in temperature may alter tropical and temperate communities for a variety of taxa. trends across latitude are dependent upon dispersal assumptions, but tropical communities suffer greater community disassembly compared with temperate communities when exposed to similar levels of warming. when modelled as a function of site-specific warming, tropical communities change more under many, but not all, dispersal scenarios. in addition to community location (tropical or temperate), mountain height can influence community disassembly, with greater disassembly found on smaller mountains. as extinctions in our model drive loss of co-occurrences, we use the term  community disassembly  to discuss both these phenomena jointly. community disassembly was the greatest in snakes and the lowest in rodents (fig. 4; appendix s2, fig. s2; table s2). all ectotherms had higher mean disassembly than endotherms, but the variation among ectotherms was greater than the variation between endotherms and ectotherms. the greater disassembly in ectotherms may be due to differences in physiological constraints. endotherms can heat themselves metabolically and use evaporative cooling to maintain a stable body temperature. ectotherms do not have the same physiological tools and must rely on behavioural modification of heat exchange to regulate body temperature (angilletta 2009). even with behavioural controls of heat exchange, the  climate space  or temperature range over which an ectotherm can survive, is considerably smaller than a comparably sized endotherm (angilletta 2009). in the simple framework of our model, the reduced climate space of ectotherms at an individual level and population level scales up to create communities that turn over more rapidly up mountains, making them more vulnerable than endotherms to climate warming. this rapid turnover up tropical mountains ultimately occurs because climate-driven differences in physiology across latitude are much greater than differences in lapse rates across latitude (deutsch et al. 2008; fan van den dool 2008). after imposing temperature increases from 0 to 5  c on tropical and temperate communities, we found that shifts greater than 2  c
Will climate change impacts felt by Australian agriculture be diverse or generally the same throughout the continent?
impacts on australian agriculture of projected climate change are likely to be spatially and temporally diverse
Which area of Australia is projected to be particularly affected by climate change?
some regions, such as south-west australia, are projected to be particularly at risk of adverse outcomes associated with climate change
Which factors related to climate change may pose an increase in cost and become problematic to farmers in Australia?
farmers are likely to face additional costs of capital adjustment due to climate change. investment in long-lived climate-dependent agricultural assets such as irrigation infrastructure, vineyards and agroforestry will become more problematic. investing in ecological assets in rural regions, especially where these assets may become stranded by climate change, also will be increasingly problematic
impacts on australian agriculture of projected climate change are likely to be spatially and temporally diverse, with many regions likely to experience increased downside risk in agricultural production. some regions, such as south-west australia, are projected to be particularly at risk of adverse outcomes associated with climate change. the rate and extent of warming, along with impacts on rainfall distributions, are key determinants of agricultural impacts and will affect the success of adaptation strategies. the likely gradual unfolding of climate change should provide farmers in many regions and industries with sufficient time to utilise or develop adaptation strategies. many of these strategies are likely to be based on farmers' current responses to climate variability. investments in r&d and innovation could be important ingredients in facilitating farmers' adaptation to climate change. farmers are likely to face additional costs of capital adjustment due to climate change. investment in long-lived climate-dependent agricultural assets such as irrigation infrastructure, vineyards and agroforestry will become more problematic. investing in ecological assets in rural regions, especially where these assets may become stranded by climate change, also will be increasingly problematic.
In the model-based predictions of the intra-annual dynamics of the vegetation canopy, what slight bias was found?
there was a slight, but not marked, bias towards better predictions at temperate sites
In the model-based predictions of the intra-annual dynamics of the vegetation canopy, what suggests the VPD control adequately depicts the intra-annual canopy dynamics ?
correlations at the hydroperiodic sites were still very high, suggesting that the vpd control adequately depicts the intra-annual canopy dynamics in these regions
In Figure 3b, what indicates the Mongolia site's growing season has high VPD?
for example, at the mongolia site, the start-of-season is determined from temperature limits but the growing season has high vpd. this is shown clearly in fig. 3b where the large red areas in midsummer indicate water stress
the correlations between model-predicted gsi values and satellite-derived ndvi values are shown in table 2. using the same model and the same parameters we were able to adequately predict the intra-annual dynamics of the vegetation canopy at all sites regardless of the dominant or co-dominant climatic controls at that site. there was a slight, but not marked, bias towards better predictions at temperate sites. the highest correlations were found in the high-latitude forests, presumably because they are more purely temperature limited than other sites. however, correlations at the hydroperiodic sites were still very high, suggesting that the vpd control adequately depicts the intra-annual canopy dynamics in these regions. individual daily index values for minimum temperature, vpd, and daylength at each site are shown in fig. 3. these figures clearly show the relative influence of water, light, and temperature limitations at each site. in only two cases does a single variable limit foliar phenology (fig. 3c, h). more often, there is a mix of environmental limits both temporally, as shown when observed over time at a given site, and spatially, as shown when comparing sites. time-series plots of model-predicted foliar phenology and ndvi values for each site are shown in fig. 4. in all cases, regardless of the previously reported correlations, the gsi-predicted canopy dynamics appear to correspond well with observed canopy changes. in some cases, the model predicted a drop in canopy greenness after the initial start-of-season increase. for example, at the mongolia site, the start-of-season is determined from temperature limits but the growing season has high vpd. this is shown clearly in fig. 3b where the large red areas in midsummer indicate water stress. during the period of the predicted canopy activity drop, the rate of increase of ndvi is less than the early season, suggesting that this vpd control may be important in determining the rate of canopy increase. in the kalahari, early season conditions that were not limiting were not met with concurrent increases in canopy greenness. however, small concomitant increases and decreases between ndvi and
Which work has been completed in Alberta and Saskatchewan?
significant work has been completed on the climatic controls on grasshopper populations in alberta and saskatchewan
What this research has shown about the grasshopper reproduction and survival?
this research has shown that grasshopper reproduction and survival are enhanced by warm and dry conditions
What happens at above-average temperatures?
above-average temperatures increase the development and maturation of grasshoppers, and allow them to lay more eggs before the onset of frost
significant work has been completed on the climatic controls on grasshopper populations in alberta and saskatchewan.(51)this research has shown that grasshopper reproduction and survival are enhanced by warm and dry conditions. for example, warm and dry weather in 2001 was associated with a 50% increase in the average number of adult grasshoppers per square metre, compared to values in 2000. above-average temperatures increase the development and maturation of grasshoppers, and allow them to lay more eggs before the onset of frost. mild winters also benefit grasshopper populations because extreme cold temperatures can kill overwintering eggs.(51)an increase in temperature and drought conditions in the prairies, as projected by climate models,(52)
what was the state of earth in 150 to 35 million years ago?
during the period from approximately 150 to 35 million years ago, the cretaceous-paleocene-eocene (cpe), the earth was in a "greenhouse" state with little or no ice at either pole
what can be identified By maintaining atmospheric CO2 concentration constant across the simulations?
by maintaining atmospheric co2 concentration constant across the simulations, we are able to identify the contribution from palaeogeographic and solar forcing to global change across the cpe, and explore the underlying mechanisms
what can regions where the adjustment factor is constant throughout the CPE  indicate?
regions where the adjustment factor is constant throughout the cpe could indicate places where future proxies could be targeted in order to reconstruct the purest co2-induced temperature change, where the complicating contributions of other processes are minimised
during the period from approximately 150 to 35 million years ago, the cretaceous-paleocene-eocene (cpe), the earth was in a "greenhouse" state with little or no ice at either pole. it was also a period of considerable global change, from the warmest periods of the midcretaceous, to the threshold of icehouse conditions at the end of the eocene. however, the relative contribution of palaeogeographic change, solar change, and carbon cycle change to these climatic variations is unknown. here, making use of recent advances in computing power, and a set of unique palaeogeographic maps, we carry out an ensemble of 19 general circulation model simulations covering this period, one simulation per stratigraphic stage. by maintaining atmospheric co2 concentration constant across the simulations, we are able to identify the contribution from palaeogeographic and solar forcing to global change across the cpe, and explore the underlying mechanisms. we find that global mean surface temperature is remarkably constant across the simulations, resulting from a cancellation of opposing trends from solar and palaeogeographic change. however, there are significant modelled variations on a regional scale. the stratigraphic stage-stage transitions which exhibit greatest climatic change are associated with transitions in the mode of ocean circulation, themselves often associated with changes in ocean gateways, and amplified by feedbacks related to emissivity and planetary albedo. we also find some control on global mean temperature from continental area and global mean orography. our results have important implications for the interpretation of single-site palaeo proxy records. in particular, our results allow the non-co2 (i.e. palaeogeographic and solar constant) components of proxy records to be removed, leaving a more global component associated with carbon cycle change. this "adjustment factor" is used to adjust sea surface temperatures, as the deep ocean is not fully equilibrated in the model. the adjustment factor is illustrated for seven key sites in the cpe, and applied to proxy data from falkland plateau, and we provide data so that similar adjustments can be made to any site and for any time period within the cpe. ultimately, this will enable isolation of the co2-forced climate signal to be extracted from multiple proxy records from around the globe, allowing an evaluation of the regional signals and extent of polar amplification in response to co2 changes during the cpe. finally, regions where the adjustment factor is constant throughout the cpe could indicate places where future proxies could be targeted in order to reconstruct the purest co2-induced temperature change, where the complicating contributions of other processes are minimised. therefore, combined with other considerations, this work could provide useful information for supporting targets for drilling localities and outcrop studies.
Is the Euro-Mediterranean region vulnerable to climate change?
euro-mediterranean region is considered as particularly vulnerable to climate variability and change, in particular, by its vulnerability to changes in the water cycle and natural ecosystems
By what is the region connected to the Atlantic ocean?
the region features an enclosed sea, which is connected to the atlantic ocean only by gibraltar strait, surrounded by very urbanized littorals and a complex topography from which numerous rivers feed the mediterranean sea
What is MED-CORDEX?
med-cordex is a coordinated action between cordex and hymex international programs
since early' 90s, many research projects analyzed and focused on downscaling of global climate simulations over the euro-mediterranean region. euro-mediterranean region is considered as particularly vulnerable to climate variability and change, in particular, by its vulnerability to changes in the water cycle and natural ecosystems. the mediterranean basin has quite a unique character that results both from orographic conditions and demographic trend. the region features an enclosed sea, which is connected to the atlantic ocean only by gibraltar strait, surrounded by very urbanized littorals and a complex topography from which numerous rivers feed the mediterranean sea. this results in many interactions and feedback between ocean-atmosphere-land processes that play a prominent role in climate and, in turn, determine the impact on human activities. based on previous stimulating initiatives and on new regional downscaling tools (regional coupled systems), developed for the circe-eu project, the mediterranean climate research community proposed the med-cordex initiative. med-cordex is a coordinated action between cordex and hymex international programs. medcordex is a unique framework where research community will make use of both regional atmospheric and oceanic climate models and regional coupled systems for increasing the reliability of regional climate information.
What does CPI acknowledge?
cpi acknowledges there are significant political sensitivities and methodological challenges associated with how to account for a climate finance 'number
What is the aim of CPI's Landscape studies?
cpi's landscape studies aim to improve understanding about where the world stands in relation to best estimates of low-carbon and climate-resilient investment needs
Why are estimates of investment needs relevant?
estimates of investment needs are relevant because they point qualitatively to the potential financing gap
cpi acknowledges there are significant political sensitivities and methodological challenges associated with how to account for a climate finance 'number.' cpi's landscape studies aim to improve understanding about where the world stands in relation to best estimates of low-carbon and climate-resilient investment needs. we characterize the difference between needs assessments, and available finance, as the climate financing gap. most recent literature on investment needs focuses on additional or incremental investment needs beyond the business-as-usual baseline, and targets standard policy drivers such as economic growth and development. seen this way, the financing gap equals the incremental costs gap. however as table 3 illustrates, estimates vary widely depending upon the parameters and assumptions adopted in the baseline such as technology costs, geographic, sectoral, and activity coverage, the range of mitigation or adaptation responses options considered, policies, and timescale.62 consequently estimates of investment needs in the literature are not fully comparable among themselves, or with our assessment of available climate finance flows. estimates of investment needs are relevant because they point qualitatively to the potential financing gap. the investment needs identified in table 3 are linked to a 450 ppm co2e stabilization scenario, the level of greenhouse gas concentrations thought consistent with limiting temperature increase to below 2deg celsius above pre-industrial levels. recent estimates of annualized additional investments needed for mitigation range from an average of usd 490 billion per year in 2010-2020 to usd 910 billion per year in the period 2010-2050.63 estimates for adaptation investment needs are even less certain,64 and range from usd 4 billion per year to well over usd 100 billion per year in 2030. most adaptation costs concern infrastructure investment in developing
how the approach is estimated?
our approach is rather crude as we base our estimation on time series showing the lumped effects of all slow and fast mechanisms
whether quasi-equilibrium approach can produce the best estimate?
our quasi-equilibrium approach cannot produce more than a rough estimate
what is the main merit of this approach?
the main merit of our approach as we see it, is that it allows for an estimate of the potential boost in global warming by century-scale feedbacks which is quite independent from that provided by coupled co2-climate models that explicitly simulate a suite of mechanisms
admittedly, our approach is rather crude as we base our estimation on time series showing the lumped effects of all slow and fast mechanisms. although we differentiate between feedback strengths inferred for different timescales, our quasi-equilibrium approach cannot produce more than a rough estimate. also, there are obvious differences between the period from 1200 till 1700, on which the estimate of the century scale feedback strength is based and current conditions. some of these such as enhanced nutrient availability may tend to reduce atmospheric carbon concentrations, while others may push the balance to the other direction. the main merit of our approach as we see it, is that it allows for an estimate of the potential boost in global warming by century-scale feedbacks which is quite independent from that provided by coupled co2-climate models that explicitly simulate a suite of mechanisms. like our approach these models have considerable uncertainty. not only are the quantitative representations of the mechanisms in the models uncertain, there is also always an uncertainty related to the fact that we are not sure whether all important mechanisms have been accounted for in the models. in view of the independence of our approach it is encouraging that our estimate of a boost in global warming corresponds roughly to what was found in simulation studies cox et al. 2000; prentice et al. 2001; friedlingstein et al. 2003]. as levins [1966] once phrased it, one is more likely to accept something as the truth when it emerges ''as the intersection of independent lies''. although ''lies'' may sound a bit too harsh for the models involved, both our approach and the large simulation models clearly have their shortcomings. interpreting our results in this spirit, they enhance the credibility of the view that over the coming century we might see a considerable boost of global warming and greenhouse gas levels compared to recent trends. acknowledgment. we wish to thank anders moberg, marcel meinders, john harte and an anonymous reviewer for digging deep into this matter and giving advices that helped much in improving the manuscript.
What are the strategies in wildlife management and biodiversity conservation?
to those who are already familiar with the practice of wildlife management and biodiversity conservation, many of the strategies reviewed here will undoubtedly look like business as usual. strategies such as land protection, habitat restoration, species translocation, and captive propagation have long been considered integral components of the manager's toolbox (iucn and conservation measures partnership 2006b
Which tools used for study of climate change?
other new and innovative tools such as statistical downscaling (easterling 1999) and small-scale climate-habitat models
to those who are already familiar with the practice of wildlife management and biodiversity conservation, many of the strategies reviewed here will undoubtedly look like business as usual. strategies such as land protection, habitat restoration, species translocation, and captive propagation have long been considered integral components of the manager's toolbox (iucn and conservation measures partnership 2006b). even many of the adaptation strategies that are proposing new activities (such as reviewing monitoring programs or laws and regulations) involve the review of existing approaches, rather than the development of new techniques. on the one hand, this is reassuring. our review of the literature showed that society (and the community of wildlife and natural resource managers in particular) already possesses many of the tools that will be necessary to help wildlife and ecosystems adapt to climate change. business as usual may not be so bad after all. yet in a very real sense business as usual is no longer an option in a world where climate change has the potential to irrevocably alter biodiversity and ecosystems in both major and minor ways. managers may still be using many of the same tools, but they will increasingly need to view the ways in which they use these tools through the lens of climate-induced changes to species and ecosystems. our old, static views of biodiversity will need to yield to new and dynamic understandings of changing ecosystems and changing climates (lovejoy 2005). dynamic landscape conservation plans (hannah hansen 2005) represent just one approach for combining existing management approaches with the most up-to-date projections of climate-change effects. other new and innovative tools such as statistical downscaling (easterling 1999) and small-scale climate-habitat models
The study presented is not a inter-coder reliability test, why?
we used only one data coder
What type of sampling was done to select case studies and interveiw subjects?
non-random sampling techniques were used to select both the case studies (individual units) and the interview subjects
Which were the offices  first to direct their units to consider adaptation opportunities?
the usfs and nps regional offices
fig. 1 geographic location of case study sites. this map was created from washington state department of ecology and department of transportation geographic information systems data (washington state department of transportation 1994, washington state department of transportation 1999 a washington state department of transportation 1999 b ). data analysis to some extent; however, where responses to interview questions had less than 100% agreement, it is more likely that this reflects differences in the subjective impressions of the interview subjects rather than coding error. we used only one data coder; therefore, we did not perform an inter-coder reliability test. given that non-random sampling techniques were used to select both the case studies (individual units) and the interview subjects (managers and staff), caution must be exercised in generalizing to other units, regional offices, or agencies. we justify the non-random sampling in two ways, one at the regional level and the other at the individual level. at the regional level, the usfs and nps regional offices overseeing the units in washington state were among the first to direct their units to consider adaptation opportunities. hence, the units within these regions are good test cases of the upper bound of climate change adaptation projects in these agencies nationwide. at the individual level, nonrandom sampling was necessary given the small number of people occupying relevant positions in the agencies, and the benefits accrued from matching positions across units and agencies to compare the perceptions of managers and staff regarding barriers to, and enablers of, climate change adaptation.
What is the acronym (GMO)
genetically modified organisms
What is the definition of a consensus conference
they are semi-structured and participatory sessions, where a representative group of the public is asked to consider a series of questions relating to a particular topic
interest in upstream engagement in europe can be partly attributed to the widely held perception that public engagement over genetically modified organisms (gmos) came too late, and resulted in something of a backlash.45 the lessons learned and the approaches used in projects such as the british gm nation public debate in 2003 have informed much of the research and practice in europe that has followed it.46 but most of the discussion over methods of upstream engagement has related to currently upstream topics (for example, nanotechnology, hydrogen energy technologies, and synthetic biology). tee rogers-hayden and nick pidgeon have referred to nanotechnology--the manufacture of nanoscale structures and devices that have novel chemical and electrical properties--as the test case for upstream engagement. a number of engagement mechanisms, and their potential for upstream engagement on geoengineering are outlined in the sidebar, "some approaches to upstream engagement."47 several methods emerge as promising ways to develop an upstream dialogue with the public, and we focus here on the use of citizens' juries and deliberative workshops.48 citizens' juries are a forum for public debate and discussion, and are based on the model of a legal jury (and are related to the "consensus conference" models used in australia and scandinavian countries).49 they are semi-structured and participatory sessions, where a representative group of the public is asked to consider a series of questions relating to a particular topic. the jury has the opportunity to question "witnesses" (experts in the field) and are asked to reach a "verdict." in this way, the sessions are guided by the concerns and interests of the participants, rather than solely determined by the researcher. nanojuryuk (held in west yorkshire over five weeks in the summer of 2005) proved to be a useful method to elicit public evaluations of nanotechnology--something that is scientifically complex, difficult to visualize, and difficult to represent psychologically.50 although participants initially struggled with the topic, its ultimate success suggests that it is a methodology that might conceivably lead to substantive public engagement with the social and ethical questions that geoengineering raises. in addition to citizens' juries, upstream deliberative workshops have been trialled using members of the british and american public. using the deliberative workshop format, quasirepresentative groups of the public from the united kingdom and the united states were convened to debate nanotechnology.51 the groups discussed the risks and benefits of specific nanotechnology applications using a combination of world cafe discussion sessions and written materials to draw on. interestingly, a firm conclusion (echoing the findings of the deepen project described earlier) was that the social trumped the technical in people's discussion of risk--that is, discussions focused predominantly on the social and ethical implications of nanotechnology, rather than questions of physical risk (despite the groups being provided with information about physical risks). a key question is whether such deliberative workshops will be an effective method of upstream engagement on geoengineering (where social and ethical questions are likely to be pertinent). they seem to provide a forum for precisely the type of nontechnical concerns that traditional risk assessment approaches to analysis struggle to capture. our argument is that the upstream public engagement tools that have been developed for studying nanotechnology may also be usefully applied to assess people's perceptions of
American public perceptions of risk it means what?
in this context, american public risk perceptions of climate change are critical for at least two reasons. first, the united states, with only 5% of the world's population (u.s. census bureau, 2005), is currently the world's largest emitter of carbon dioxide, alone accounting for nearly 25% of global emissions (marland et al., 2003). per capita, americans emit 5.40 metric tons of carbon each year. by comparison, the average japanese emits 2.55 tons per year, while the average chinese emits only 0.60 and the average indian only 0.29 tons per year (ibid
Denife Intensive Action:
second, successive u.s. presidents and congressional leaders have been at odds with much of the world community regarding the reality, seriousness and need for vigorous action on climate change. in 1997, just prior to the kyoto climate change conference, the u.s
What is the Kyoto Protocol?
further, in 2001 president george w. bush renounced a campaign pledge to regulate carbon dioxide as a pollutant, withdrew the united states from the kyoto protocol
in this context, american public risk perceptions of climate change are critical for at least two reasons. first, the united states, with only 5% of the world's population (u.s. census bureau, 2005), is currently the world's largest emitter of carbon dioxide, alone accounting for nearly 25% of global emissions (marland et al., 2003). per capita, americans emit 5.40 metric tons of carbon each year. by comparison, the average japanese emits 2.55 tons per year, while the average chinese emits only 0.60 and the average indian only 0.29 tons per year (ibid.). second, successive u.s. presidents and congressional leaders have been at odds with much of the world community regarding the reality, seriousness and need for vigorous action on climate change. in 1997, just prior to the kyoto climate change conference, the u.s. senate passed a nonbinding resolution (95-0) co-sponsored by robert byrd (d) of west virginia and chuck hagel (r) of nebraska, which urged the clinton administration to reject any agreement that did not include emission limits for developing as well as industrialized countries, arguing that to do so would put the u.s. at a competitive economic disadvantage (senate resolution, 98, 1997). further, in 2001 president george w. bush renounced a campaign pledge to regulate carbon dioxide as a pollutant, withdrew the united states from the kyoto protocol
How are the goals defined differently?
goals are defined very differently by agencies or organizations dedicated to managing single issue problems in particular sectors (e.g., irrigation, public supply) when compared with decision makers working in political jurisdictions or watershed-based entities designed to comprehensively manage and coordinate several management objectives simultaneously (e.g., flood control and irrigation, power
What do the factors to improve the usability of SI climate information focus on?
effective knowledge networks focus on promoting broad, userdriven management objectives (cash and buizer 2005
What does the decision context usually contain and what does it shape?
these objectives, in turn, are shaped by the decision context, which usually contains multiple stresses and management goals (western water policy review advisory commission 1998
efforts to identify factors that improve the usability of si climate information have found that effective knowledge networks focus on promoting broad, userdriven management objectives (cash and buizer 2005). these objectives, in turn, are shaped by the decision context, which usually contains multiple stresses and management goals (western water policy review advisory commission 1998). research on water resource decision making suggests that goals are defined very differently by agencies or organizations dedicated to managing single issue problems in particular sectors (e.g., irrigation, public supply) when compared with decision makers working in political jurisdictions or watershed-based entities designed to comprehensively manage and coordinate several management objectives simultaneously (e.g., flood control and irrigation, power
What does prediction in climate change show?
predictions of the impacts of climate change are not unidirectional, but may show opposite trends within communities and across long time spans or large spatial scales
What does alternative causal agents have to do?
switch the sign of their impacts within a study if they were to form credible competing explanations
What does differentiating patterns do?
reduce the likelihood of hidden, non-climate competing explanations, thereby increasing p and decreasing the value of p necessary to achieve a given confidence level
predictions of the impacts of climate change are not unidirectional, but may show opposite trends within communities and across long time spans or large spatial scales. alternative causal agents would therefore have to be able to switch the sign of their impacts within a study if they were to form credible competing explanations. such differentiating patterns greatly reduce the likelihood of hidden, non-climate competing explanations, thereby increasing p and decreasing the value of p necessary to achieve a given confidence level (see supplementary information). high confidence could be obtained under this scheme with existing patterns d n 0= n 0 33 th and poor mechanistic understanding (low p ). sufficient data to quantify the differential impacts on species'distributions or phenologies across time periods or geographic regions were available for 334 species, among which 84% showed a sign-switching diagnostic of climate change response p 0.1 ps 102 12; table 3).
What would the decline of Great Lakes water levels as a result of climate change do?
significantly impact coastal communities, infrastructure and activities
What is an example of a negative impact of the decline of Great Lakes water levels as a result of climate change?
lower lake levels could necessitate increased dredging of marinas and ports, reduce shipping opportunities and affect water supplies of shoreline municipalities
other major concerns include the inundation of coastal lowlands and an increase in storm-surge flooding. these changes could result in a suite of biophysical and socio-economic impacts on the coastal zone (figure 2) that would ultimately impact a range of sectors, including fisheries, transportation, tourism and recreation, and communities. the decline of great lakes water levels as a result of climate change would significantly impact coastal communities, infrastructure and activities. while some impacts may be beneficial (e.g., wider beaches, less flooding), many will be negative. for example, lower lake levels could necessitate increased dredging of marinas and ports, reduce shipping opportunities and affect water supplies of shoreline municipalities.(11)
How many food-crops in Nepal?
current climate trend on yield of six main food-crops in nepal
What are the  food-crops in Nepal ?
food-crops are divided into two groups based on their growing season, namely; summer and winter season crops
How does increasing temperature affect crop yield?
yield of potato, wheat, paddy, and maize is in growing trend, but fluctuates over the years, whereas yield of millet and barley, two minor cereal crops, is growing very steadily. in summer, each of the climate variables is in increasing trend, whereas in winter, rainfall and minimum temperature is decreasing. in summer, increase in rain and maximum temperature has contributed positively to yield growth of paddy. similarly, increase in wheat and barley yield is contributed by current climate trends. however, increased summer rain and maximum temperature suppressed the yield growth of maize and millet, whereas negative impact of increase in summer maximum temperature outweighed positive impact of increased summer rain and summer minimum temperature in the case of potato. this study thus concludes that food-crops grown in summer are adversely affected by the current trend of climate. except for paddy, which has high water demand and thrives on water logging condition, other summer crops are adversely affected by increase in rainfall and
conclusion this paper analyzed the impact of current climate trend on yield of six main food-crops in nepal. these food-crops are divided into two groups based on their growing season, namely; summer and winter season crops. the impact is assessed for each crop based on the growing season of respective crop. yield of potato, wheat, paddy, and maize is in growing trend, but fluctuates over the years, whereas yield of millet and barley, two minor cereal crops, is growing very steadily. in summer, each of the climate variables is in increasing trend, whereas in winter, rainfall and minimum temperature is decreasing. in summer, increase in rain and maximum temperature has contributed positively to yield growth of paddy. similarly, increase in wheat and barley yield is contributed by current climate trends. however, increased summer rain and maximum temperature suppressed the yield growth of maize and millet, whereas negative impact of increase in summer maximum temperature outweighed positive impact of increased summer rain and summer minimum temperature in the case of potato. this study thus concludes that food-crops grown in summer are adversely affected by the current trend of climate. except for paddy, which has high water demand and thrives on water logging condition, other summer crops are adversely affected by increase in rainfall and
This result is clear to analize?
this result, however, remains open to alternative interpretations
What does model 1 in Table S4 shows?
model 1 in table s4 shows the results when we interact each agreement feature indicator variable with an indicator variable that distinguishes between high and low levels of environmentalism
How term's coefficient and costs are related?
the interaction term's coefficient increases in the size of the costs
our results indicate that the public generally prefers global climate agreements in which many countries participate. one explanation advanced in the paper for this design effect is that such agreements may be viewed as more effective. the paper provides evidence consistent with this interpretation by showing the greater sensitivity of support among respondents with high levels of environmentalism to levels of participation. this result, however, remains open to alternative interpretations. for example, a rival explanation for the these differences in respondents' sensitivities to agreement design features might be that environmentalists tend to be more ideologically left than non-environmentalists. to formally explore the interaction effects between agreement features and environmentalism/ideology we regress the variable agreement support on dummy variables that indicate the agreement's features and a full set of interactions with environmentalism/ideology along with the constitutive terms. this allows us to formally test whether there exist systematic differences between different groups. if ideology is driving the differences in treatment effects between pro-environmentalists and anti-environmentalists we would expect to find a similar pattern of interaction effects when replacing our environmentalism indicator variable with a variable that measures respondents' ideology. the patterns should be similar in particular with respect to the participation dimension. model 1 in table s4 shows the results when we interact each agreement feature indicator variable with an indicator variable that distinguishes between high and low levels of environmentalism. environmentalism is measured by asking individuals: "as you probably know, many experts say that countries have to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions to address global warming. generally speaking, how strongly do you support or oppose international cooperation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions even if this involves significant costs?'' answers were given on a scale from 1 ("strongly support") to 5 ("strongly oppose") and converted into an indicator variable high environmentalism that equals one for those who support or strongly support international climate cooperation and is zero otherwise. when considering the coefficients on the interaction terms between the cost treatment variables and high environmentalism (model 1 in table s4), we find that they are all significantly positive. this suggests that individuals with high levels of environmentalism are significantly less sensitive to an agreement's climate mitigation costs than respondents with low levels environmentalism. the interaction term's coefficient increases in the size of the costs. for example, it is about 0.026 for the interaction term between "costs 1.5% of gdp" and high environmentalism but 0.064, i.e, three times as large, when we consider the coefficient on the interaction for the 2.5% of gdp cost scenario. this is consistent with the interpretation that those who have a stronger preference for global climate policy in general are more willing to incur the costs arising from the provision of this public good. we find similar differences for the participation dimension irrespective of whether participation is conceptualized in terms of the number of countries or in terms of the share of global emissions accounted for by the participant countries: all coefficients on the interaction terms between the participation indicator variables and the high environmentalism variable are significantly positive. this suggests that those with higher levels of environmentalism more strongly support global climate agreements that include more countries or where participating countries represent a larger share of global emissions. in the latter case we actually find that only those with high levels of environmentalism seem to support more encompassing climate
What is the relationship between tropical eruptions and summer temperatures in Europe?
significant continental-scale summer cooling over europe following major tropical eruptions. this direct radiative cooling effect is remarkably robust and found after all analysed major eruptions back to 1500. significant winter warming over northern europe is observed in year 0 and 1 following a major tropical eruption
How many events were analyzed to draw these conclusions?
the consistency of signals across the 15 events studied here allows to a certain degree of confidence forecasts of seasonal temperature, circulation and precipitation anomalies over europe after major volcanic events
Who supported this research?
we thank the swiss national science foundation through its national centre of excellence in research on climate (nccr) for financial support
the analysis of independent, high resolution multiproxy reconstructions provides new evidence for significant continental-scale summer cooling over europe following major tropical eruptions. this direct radiative cooling effect is remarkably robust and found after all analysed major eruptions back to 1500. significant winter warming over northern europe is observed in year 0 and 1 following a major tropical eruption. this temperature anomaly is associated with a positive phase of the nao, with stronger westerlies into europe and a tendency to wet conditions over northern europe. the consistency of signals across the 15 events studied here allows to a certain degree of confidence forecasts of seasonal temperature, circulation and precipitation anomalies over europe after major volcanic events. acknowledgments. we thank the swiss national science foundation through its national centre of excellence in research on climate (nccr) for financial support. st was funded by the government met. research (gmr) contract and soap (evk2-ct-2002-00160). cc was funded by pacliva (evr1-2002-000413). we would like to thank a. robock, c. ammann and another reviewer for valuable comments on the manuscript.
What was the estimate period (in years) to produce a time series of location estimates?
g t o 1 t 2 t to produce a time series of location parameter estimates for the 1990-2099 period
What section did this time series define when analyzed?
this time series was then analyzed as outlined in section 3c to estimate trends in the location parameter of swh extremes
What were these trends used to project?
these trends, in turn, were used to project changes in the size and frequency of extreme swh events. c. analysis of projected trends in this section we report on our analysis of trends in the projected swh statistics
g t o 1 t 2 t to produce a time series of location parameter estimates for the 1990-2099 period. this time series was then analyzed as outlined in section 3c to estimate trends in the location parameter of swh extremes. these trends, in turn, were used to project changes in the size and frequency of extreme swh events. c. analysis of projected trends in this section we report on our analysis of trends in the projected swh statistics. we study trends in the projected seasonal means and 90th percentiles of swh, and in the projected location parameter tof the dis
Explain gas emissions?
until recently, climate change research and negotiations have focused almost exclusively on the imperative of reducing greenhouse gas emissions
Define emissions reductions?
now, however, it is clear that emissions reductions efforts have been too little, too late.2 therefore, the challenges and complex politics of adaptation are joining those of mitigation at the centre of policy debates
Explain adaptive capacity?
in any given location, migration could be an adaptation strategy. but forced migration and displacement may well be indicators of woefully inadequate adaptive capacity
until recently, climate change research and negotiations have focused almost exclusively on the imperative of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. now, however, it is clear that emissions reductions efforts have been too little, too late.2 therefore, the challenges and complex politics of adaptation are joining those of mitigation at the centre of policy debates. it is, therefore, crucial for the international community to accelerate learning about effective adaptation. one of the most important tasks will be to improve our understanding of how environmental change affects human mobility. in any given location, migration could be an adaptation strategy. but forced migration and displacement may well be indicators of woefully inadequate adaptive capacity.
How do durophagous teleosts avoid mortality from cold sea temperatures in the Arctic?
in the arctic, durophagous teleosts feed in shallow-water, soft-substratum habitats. these teleosts, which include cod (gadidae), flatfish (pleuronectidae), sculpins (cottidae), and eelpout (zoarcidae), avoid mortality from cold sea temperatures by means of antifreeze proteins, other biochemical adaptations, and migratory behaviors
What is the most common shark in shallow Arctic waters?
the dogfish squalus acanthias (squalidae) is the most common shark in shallow arctic waters
Do crabs occur naturally in shallow benthic communities in the Arctic?
crabs do not occur naturally in shallow benthic communities in the arctic
in the arctic, durophagous teleosts feed in shallow-water, soft-substratum habitats. these teleosts, which include cod (gadidae), flatfish (pleuronectidae), sculpins (cottidae), and eelpout (zoarcidae), avoid mortality from cold sea temperatures by means of antifreeze proteins, other biochemical adaptations, and migratory behaviors (helfman et al. 1997). the dogfish squalus acanthias (squalidae) is the most common shark in shallow arctic waters. although s. acanthias eats small crabs occasionally, its diet consists primarily of fish. crabs do not occur naturally in shallow benthic communities in the arctic. as mentioned above, walruses and gray whales are important sources of disturbance and durophagy in arctic soft-substratum communities. the oceanographic and ecological differences between arctic and antarctic marine ecosystems are reviewed elsewhere (dayton et al. 1994, smetacek nicol 2005).
What does climate variability affects?
climate variability already has substantial impacts on biological systems and on the smallholders
How many months are in a Weighted Anomaly of Standardized Precipitation?
interannual rainfall variability is expressed as the 12-month weighted anomaly of standardized precipitation
What method is used to calculate Standardized Precipitation?
calculated from overlapping multi-month sums of standardized precipitation anomalies weighted according to the fraction of mean annual precipitation at the given time of year
this article is protected by copyright. all rights reserved. climate variability already has substantial impacts on biological systems and on the smallholders, communities and countries which depend on them. the importance of rainfall variability at the national level, for example, is illustrated in figure 2, which shows the relationship between annual rainfall variability and changes in the gross domestic product and agricultural gross domestic product for three countries of sub-saharan africa. in figure 2, interannual rainfall variability is expressed as the 12-month weighted anomaly of standardized precipitation (wasp), calculated from overlapping multi-month sums of standardized precipitation anomalies weighted according to the fraction of mean annual precipitation at the given time of year (from the data library of the international research institute for climate and society, iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu). this kind of close relationship is likely to be found for many tropical countries that depend heavily on agriculture as an engine for economic development.
How the equation 17.5 has been derived?
equation 17.5 has been derived from a large number of ponds distributed in several places of the world, specific local conditions can always prevail and lead to different values of kb
What does  places with very high solar radiation are prone to have?
high kb values (higher uv radiation, higher photosynthesis, higher do and higher ph
What is the kb values for Tertiary and subsequent ponds ?
tertiary and subsequent ponds - kb: 5 to 15% higher than the value from the general equation
tertiary and subsequent ponds - kb: 5 to 15% higher than the value from the general equation although equation 17.5 has been derived from a large number of ponds distributed in several places of the world, specific local conditions can always prevail and lead to different values of kb. for instance, places with very high solar radiation are prone to having high kb values (higher uv radiation, higher photosynthesis, higher do and higher ph). as mentioned, to incorporate this and other factors in the equation would lead to a very sophisticated model structure, requiring input data difficult to obtain in practice. 588 stabilisation ponds
In response to what are the distributions of many terrestrial organisms currently shifting?
the distributions of many terrestrial organisms are currently shifting in latitude or elevation in response to changing climate
The distributions of what kind of animals are shifting?
the distributions of many terrestrial organisms are currently shifting in latitude or elevation in response to changing climate
In what aspect are the distributions of many terrestrial animals currently shifting?
the distributions of many terrestrial organisms are currently shifting in latitude or elevation in response to changing climate
i-ching chen,1,2jane k. hill,1ralf ohlemuller,3david b. roy,4chris d. thomas1* the distributions of many terrestrial organisms are currently shifting in latitude or elevation in response to changing climate. using a meta-analysis, we estimated that the distributions of species have recently shifted to higher elevations at a median rate of 11.0 meters per decade, and to higher latitudes at a median rate of 16.9 kilometers per decade. these rates are approximately two and three times faster than previously reported. the distances moved by species are greatest in studies showing the highest levels of warming, with average latitudinal shifts being generally sufficient to track temperature changes. however, individual species vary greatly in their rates of change, suggesting that the range shift of each species depends on multiple internal species traits and external drivers of change. rapid average shifts derive from a wide diversity of responses by individual species.
when was the economic camage started?
the economic carnage that started in 2008
what are the 2 new professions that are urgently needed?
two new professions are urgently needed, one that can calculate the capacity of our ecosystems and markets, and the second that can equitably allocate resources among our citizens
what does Aubery meyer had done ?
aubrey meyer has done for global co 2 emissions in his work at the global commons institute
this growing disconnect has been highlighted by many writers, from jane jacobs 35 to jonathan neale. 36 to date, climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies have seldom been associated with the rethinking of social infrastructures, but the economic carnage that started in 2008 and the exposure of the underbelly of capitalism may change this. the time has come to invest again in our communities. this is not the time to close and sell off our post offices to asset-stripping foreign companies, but rather to build them into the solid financial heart of all communities. this is not the time to sell off our playing fields and village halls, but to invest in them as social hubs from which strong communities can be grown. this is the time to invest in making every building into a decent shelter that can withstand extreme weather, that can harvest and store energy and water and provide us with the safe havens in which we can survive in relative, low-energy, comfort. this is not the time to start pulling the flood sirens out of communities, but rather putting them in. 37 every community will have to be helped to build resilience, to learn how to live low-carbon lives, 38 to minimize its exposure to the hazards ahead, to protect its vulnerable and build local self-reliance. to achieve this we need to research, relearn, re-educate and rethink our economies, societies and relationship with the environment, and quickly. two new professions are urgently needed, one that can calculate the capacity of our ecosystems and markets, and the second that can equitably allocate resources among our citizens, just as aubrey meyer has done for global co 2 emissions in his work at the global commons institute. 39 then, of course, we need a strong, clear and far-sighted government that works for the good of the commons.
How will current water tables be affected by climate change?
climate change will likely change the balance of current water tables by increasing loss through evaporation, via higher temperatures, and by changing rainfall inputs
What risks does climate change bring for tropical forests?
fire and drought tend to degrade tropical forests to grasses, bushes and fire-tolerant trees, such as pinus z goldammer and price, 1998 hulme and viner's analysis also points to more intense rainfall events
Why kind of problems can soil erosion cause?
soil erosion leads to a multiple of woes--including drought, nutrient leaching and complete slope failure, all of which can effectively reduce available soil moisture with devastating consequences for mountain forests
z crease in lapse rates does not appear to be see section 3.3 3.2. increases in water stress and intense e o ents the moisture available to an ecosystem affects both the kind and the amount of the vegetation that z will grow woodward, 1987 the soil serves as an important water reservoir for terrestrial plants for non-rainy days, dry seasons and droughts. climate change will likely change the balance of current water tables by increasing loss through evaporation, via higher temperatures, and by changing rainfall inputs. few studies have focused on climate change impacts on the hydrological cycle in the tropics; but one study, the hulme and viner analysis of the uk met office's gcm, shows increasing water stress in many tropical regions. they find decreasing soil z moisture throughout the tropics although they caution that this result is crude furthermore, with the exception of east and northeast africa through the middle east and into monsoon india, the length of the dry season in the tropics increased. the same regions also showed a decrease in the relative humidz ity field when averaged over four other gcms see section 3.3 these predictions suggest increasing water stress, which if it occurs will cause damage to trees and epiphytes, implying more fire and drought. fire and drought tend to degrade tropical forests to grasses, bushes and fire-tolerant trees, such as pinus z goldammer and price, 1998 hulme and viner's analysis also points to more intense rainfall events, as seen in other gcms as z well fowler and hennessey, 1995, although bensiton et al., 1996 concludes that it is still uncertain whether extreme events will increase typhoons and hurricanes may also increase in frequency although results for this are even more uncertain. if extreme events do increase in intensity, wind damage to trees z and soil erosion will increase emanuel, 1987; hulme and viner, 1998 soil erosion leads to a multiple of woes--including drought, nutrient leaching and complete slope failure, all of which can effectively reduce available soil moisture with devastating consequences for mountain forests. el nino events may
How long does it usually take to obtain a business license in Tanzania?
a process that can take up to a year
With the help of the network, how long did it take the Kenyan network member to obtain a business license in Tanzania?
helped her to obtain a business licence in tanzania in less than a month
What were some complaints about shortcomings of the network?
a ghanaian member complained about not receiving much help from the network in facilitating her transactions in co^ te d'ivoire
since joining the enterprise networks some members are doing business with firms in other african countries. however, other members contend that there is more 'talking' than actual business being transacted. a kenyan network member says that a tanzanian network member helped her to obtain a business licence in tanzania in less than a month, a process that can take up to a year. a ugandan network member said that he joined eaen to do business and observed, 'now when i go to another country like kenya, zambia, or burundi, my entry points are better. it is almost like having a family member to deal with; we can use their offices when we are there'. as a result, he now exports day-old chicks to burundi and plans to expand to ethiopia. a ghanaian member complained about not receiving much help from the network in facilitating her transactions in co^ te d'ivoire, but acknowledged being more comfortable travelling alone to this country and others, because 'you can always call the network'. a network member from uganda said that knowing network members in other countries increased the productivity of his business travels to neighbouring countries. other examples include a magazine publisher in uganda who negotiated the best deal for printing through a network member in nairobi. a kenyan network member's advertising and public relations firm completed interior design projects in uganda and tanzania, and designed corporate trade exhibitions in tanzania. a ugandan network owner of an advertising/pr firm negotiated contracts for public relations work at branch offices in kenya. he also collaborated with a kenyan network member to design animated electronic outdoor displays and indoor exhibitions. members
Why would they never go thru all those channels with any of my other colleagues ?
they would have never gone through all those channels with any of my other colleagues. it's because i was a woman an african american
What did one community doctor ask ?
one of the community doctors walked in and asked me who i was and then proceeded to ask where i went to medical school
How do you feel about the social dynamics of the workplace ?
and one of the community doctors walked in and asked me who i was and then proceeded to ask where i went to medical school i didn't want that to be the issue that placed me in an okay box but those are the kind of things that you have to experience again and again ., and it does define kind of how you kinda feel about the social dynamics of your workplace
they would have never gone through all those channels with any of my other colleagues. it's because i was a woman an african american they would have never challenged a majority physician's judgments like that. urm female i'm obviously running the cases, and one of the community doctors walked in and asked me who i was and then proceeded to ask where i went to medical school i didn't want that to be the issue that placed me in an okay box but those are the kind of things that you have to experience again and again ., and it does define kind of how you kinda feel about the social dynamics of your workplace. mixed focus group; female
What approach was used to characterize summer climate conditions?
here, following the approach of kling et al. (2003) we fi rst use average summer temperature and rainfall to characterize summer climate conditions for the states of michigan and illinois fig. 9 and the city of chicago table 3 
The climate of what states were characterized?
here, following the approach of kling et al. (2003) we fi rst use average summer temperature and rainfall to characterize summer climate conditions for the states of michigan and illinois fig. 9 and the city of chicago table 3 
Within how many decades will the central Illinois weather feel more like southern Illinois does today?
within a decade or two, summer in central illinois is likely to feel more like southern illinois does today, while michigan summers may feel more like those of indiana do today
here, following the approach of kling et al. (2003) we fi rst use average summer temperature and rainfall to characterize summer climate conditions for the states of michigan and illinois fig. 9 and the city of chicago table 3 ). this time, however, we project changes under higher and lower future emissions scenarios. in both these cases, projected changes in average summer temperature and rainfall under climate change are expected to make the states feel as if they are shifting south and westward over time. within a decade or two, summer in central illinois is likely to feel more like southern illinois does today, while michigan summers may feel more like those of indiana do today.
The Ricardian analysis results are presented in Table 9. Which three model results are displayed in the columns?
the second column presents model results with climate variables only, the third column introduces hydrological and soil factors and the fourth column introduces household characteristics
Why are only summer and winter temperatures represented For climate variables in this case?
for climate variables, we present results for summer and winter temperatures only because fall and spring are collinear with summer and winter temperatures
What is the difference between summer and winter temperatures in relation to net crop revenue?
summer temperatures exhibit a u-shaped relationship with net crop revenue and winter temperatures a hill-shaped one
discussion of results the ricardian analysis results are presented in table 9, which displays three model results. the second column presents model results with climate variables only, the third column introduces hydrological and soil factors and the fourth column introduces household characteristics. for climate variables, we present results for summer and winter temperatures only because fall and spring are collinear with summer and winter temperatures. for precipitation, we retain fall and summer precipitation for the same reason. the results are robust across the three models. high summer temperatures are harmful to crop production while high winter temperatures are beneficial. this is because summer (march-may) is the planting period followed by formative crop growth, while winter (june-august) is the period for ripening and maturing of crops. high summer temperatures would therefore slow down or destroy crop growth, while higher winter temperatures are crucial for ripening and harvesting. in the kenyan highlands, winters can be quite chilly and excessively low winter temperatures have been associated with crop damage from frost. the negative coefficient for the quadratic term suggests, however, that excess winter temperatures would be harmful for crop productivity. summer temperatures exhibit a u-shaped relationship with net crop revenue and winter temperatures a hill-shaped one. both fall and summer precipitation are, however, positively correlated with net crop revenue and exhibit a hill-shaped relationship with it. the results further show that climate exhibits a non-linear relationship with net revenue, which is 18 18 consistent with the available literature (mendelsohn et al. 1994, 2003, kurukulasuriya mendelsohn 2006). the chow test results show that the overall models are significant at the 1% level of significance, but the r2 shows that the models explain only between 3 and 13% of the total variation in net revenue.7
How is the consequences of daily temperature variation for 29 terrestrial insect species examined?
we examined the consequences of daily temperature variation for 29 terrestrial insect species using rate summation (i.e., summing fitness at hourly intervals as temperature fluctuates across the standard fitness curve in line with the average dtr experienced by the insect
What yields qualitatively similar patterns to our empirical studies?
the rate summation approach yields qualitatively similar patterns to our empirical studies
What is confirmed by substituting the contemporary climate data with projections from the HadCM3 climate scenario for 2080?
the increased sensitivity is confirmed by substituting the contemporary climate data with projections from the hadcm3 climate scenario for 2080
we examined the consequences of daily temperature variation for 29 terrestrial insect species using rate summation (i.e., summing fitness at hourly intervals as temperature fluctuates across the standard fitness curve in line with the average dtr experienced by the insect). in fig. 1, we present an illustrative example for one temperate species (note fitness is scaled to 1 to enable comparisons of relative fitness). the rate summation approach yields qualitatively similar patterns to our empirical studies, whereby fluctuation at low mean temperatures increases fitness, while fluctuation around high mean temperatures reduces fitness. fluctuation also reduces the temperature optimum (r to to) (together with the maximum attainable fitness at this optimum), as well as the critical maximum temperature (rctmax ctmax). commensurate with the lower temperature optimum, the tsm is reduced in the fluctuating environment from 16.6 to 13.5 deg c. extending this approach to the full set of species results in reductions in tsms ranging from 0.8 to 4.5 deg c (fig. 4a). the decrease in tsm applies to all species across latitudes; because daily temperature variation lowers the realized temperature optimum and brings it closer to the prevailing habitat temperature, we predict species to have increased sensitivity to climate warming. the increased sensitivity is confirmed by substituting the contemporary climate data with projections from the hadcm3 climate scenario for 2080 (considering not only changes in mean temperature but also the forecast changes in temperature variation for species-specific locations, see figure s1). as expected, with warmer habitat temperatures across the board, the tsms of all species are reduced. however, with mean temperatures and the fundamental fitness curves, only one of the tsms was reduced to zero or below, indicating some remaining buffer against negative impacts on fitness for the majority of species. with daily temperature fluctuations and the realized fitness curves, on the other hand,
What Country has the efficency gains from the ETS?
however, there is one country where the efficiency gains from the ets outweigh the distortions from different marginal abatement costs, that is denmark
What was analyzed in Klepper and Peterson
the welfare costs in the nocdm scenario are therefore lower than in the unilateral case (see figure 5). turning to the trade with emission allowances in the ets, the picture has changed compared to the allocation rules that were proposed by the eu commission and that have been analyzed in klepper and peterson (2004
What is 60 EUR/t CO2?
the implicit tax in the unilateral scenario is 60 eur/t co2 whereas the ets has less than 10 eur/t co2
however, there is one country where the efficiency gains from the ets outweigh the distortions from different marginal abatement costs, that is denmark. the implicit tax in the unilateral scenario is 60 eur/t co2 whereas the ets has less than 10 eur/t co2. these gains seem to outweigh the distortions between sectors. the welfare costs in the nocdm scenario are therefore lower than in the unilateral case (see figure 5). turning to the trade with emission allowances in the ets, the picture has changed compared to the allocation rules that were proposed by the eu commission and that have been analyzed in klepper and peterson (2004)4. while under the least-cost orientated emission targets the ets turned out to be a rather lopsided affair in the sense that the accession countries would be
Define aerobic organic?
composting is an aerobic organic matter decomposition process that is achieved through controlled conditions of temperature, water content, oxygen and nutrients
Which activity control the Inactivation of pathogenic microorganisms?
the inactivation of the pathogenic microorganisms occurs mainly by the increase of temperature during the highest activity phase of the process
How much temperature reaches in biochemical reactions?
the temperature reaches values between 55 and 65*c by means of biochemical reactions
composting is an aerobic organic matter decomposition process that is achieved through controlled conditions of temperature, water content, oxygen and nutrients. the resultant product (compost) has a high agricultural value as a soil conditioner. the inactivation of the pathogenic microorganisms occurs mainly by the increase of temperature during the highest activity phase of the process. the temperature reaches values between 55 and 65*c by means of biochemical reactions. raw sludge and digested sludge can be composted. materials such as wood chips, leaves, green waste, rice straw, sawdust, or other structuring agents need to be added to the sludge to improve the water retention, increase the porosity, and balance the ratio between carbon and nitrogen. figure 5.11 shows a typical flowsheet of the composting process.
In the United States, what major factors contributed to the disappearance of malaria, dengue, and other mosquito-borne diseases?
in the united states, changes in lifestyles and living conditions were major factors in the disappearance of malaria, dengue, and other mosquito-borne diseases
What two factors will facilitate introductions from other parts of the world?
international travel and population movement will facilitate introductions from other parts of the world
In 1997, the World Health Organization recorded how many cases of imported malaria in the European region?
for example, in 1997 the world health organization recorded 12,328 cases of imported malaria in the european region
in the united states, changes in lifestyles and living conditions were major factors in the disappearance of malaria, dengue, and other mosquito-borne diseases. unless living standards deteriorate drastically, such factors will remain dominant. in many regions, summer temperatures are higher than in much of the tropics where the diseases remain common. if the present warming trend continues, strategies to avoid these temperatures--particularly indoor living and air conditioning--are likely to become more prevalent. consequently, the proneness to epidemics, already very low, will continue to decline 9,20,42,50,76 ). this does not mean that disease will be entirely absent, and some diseases are reappearing in urban areas. international travel and population movement will facilitate introductions from other parts of the world. for example, in 1997 the world health organization recorded 12,328 cases of imported malaria in the european region. such cases occasionally lead to summertime transmission, recently reported as far north as toronto, canada, and berlin, germany. however, in all developed countries, such outbreaks are likely to be small, easily contained, and confined to a limited geographic area. climate-related natural disasters may change the dynamics of human-mosquito contact; floods may create conditions that allow mosquito proliferation and enhance
What was used to test for differences between treatments and years?
we carried out linear mixed effects models and anovas to test for differences between treatments and years in the following variables
In which variables were linear mixed effects models and ANOVAs carried out to test for differences between treatments and years?
we carried out linear mixed effects models and anovas to test for differences between treatments and years in the following variables: (i) biomass of individual microbial groups; (ii) abundance of individual testate amoeba species; (iii) individual water chemical components; (iv) total abundance of plants (mosses and vascular plants) and abundance of individual moss and vascular plant; and (v) polyphenol content in sphagnum
For what purpose were F -values from the ANOVAs used?
finally, we used the f -values from the anovas to quantify the impact of warming on the abundance of individual testate amoeba species
we carried out linear mixed effects models and anovas to test for differences between treatments and years in the following variables: (i) biomass of individual microbial groups; (ii) abundance of individual testate amoeba species; (iii) individual water chemical components; (iv) total abundance of plants (mosses and vascular plants) and abundance of individual moss and vascular plant; and (v) polyphenol content in sphagnum linear mixed effects were used to assess the effects of warming (difference of temperature between ambient and warmed plots, delta tc), time and microtopography (fixed effects) on measured of biotic and abiotic variables while accounting for the temporal repeated measurements in each plot on three dates. we fitted all models including plot as a random effect on the intercept, i.e. we corrected for the inflation of the residual degrees of freedom that would occur if we were using repeated measurements as true replicates (pinheiro and bates, 2000). then anovas were applied on the different models to test the fixed effects, and differences among the levels of the fixed effects in the final model were determined using multiple comparison post-hoc analyses (general linear hypothesis test). finally, we used the f -values from the anovas to quantify the impact of warming on the abundance of individual testate amoeba species. higher f -values indicated stronger warming effect on the individual testate amoeba species. we evaluated the warming effect on vegetation and microbial community structure, we evaluated the warming effect on vegetation and microbial community structure, and water chemistry composition using the principal response curve (prc) method. prc was used to focus on the time-dependent treatment effect and applied on the hellingertransformed vegetation and microbial assemblages and the standardized water chemistry matrix, including the response of individual plant species, microbial groups or chemical components. prc analysis is a special case of partial rda (prda) for multivariate responses in repeated observation design. it is based on a prda adjusted for overall changes in community structure response over time, as compared to control plots (van den brink and ter braak, 1999). in diagrams, the curves represent the time trajectory for the controls as a
What drives successional change during periods between disturbances?
successional change during periods between disturbances can be driven by various mechanisms, such as amelioration of high insolation and droughtiness (finegan 1984, kitzberger et al. 2000), incremental soil improvement (bormann and sidle 1990), and gradual competitive displacement favoring superior competitors for light on n-rich soils (tilman 1988, canham 1989) or nitrogen in n-depleted soils (gleeson and tilman 1990
What is successional trajectory significantly influenced by?
however, successional trajectory may be significantly influenced by the availability of propagules of potential colonists (egler 1954). while many herbaceous species may be present in the soil seed bank, most forest tree species depend on seed rain from the surrounding landscape. thus the appearance of tree species in the course of succession may be related to seed source distribution and seed dispersal as much as it is to other successional mechanisms
What is seed dispersal crucial for?
seed dispersal is crucial for understanding forest dynamics (ribbens et al. 1994, clark et al. 1999) and historical and future
successional change during periods between disturbances can be driven by various mechanisms, such as amelioration of high insolation and droughtiness (finegan 1984, kitzberger et al. 2000), incremental soil improvement (bormann and sidle 1990), and gradual competitive displacement favoring superior competitors for light on n-rich soils (tilman 1988, canham 1989) or nitrogen in n-depleted soils (gleeson and tilman 1990). however, successional trajectory may be significantly influenced by the availability of propagules of potential colonists (egler 1954). while many herbaceous species may be present in the soil seed bank, most forest tree species depend on seed rain from the surrounding landscape. thus the appearance of tree species in the course of succession may be related to seed source distribution and seed dispersal as much as it is to other successional mechanisms. seed dispersal is crucial for understanding forest dynamics (ribbens et al. 1994, clark et al. 1999) and historical and future
What is meant by "irrigation efficiency"?
the term "irrigation efficiency" has different meanings at different scales such as an irrigation project or a river basin
What is meant by "Agricultural water use"?
agricultural water use" refers to all consumptive water use for irrigation purposes, including both crop evapotranspiration from applied water ("beneficial" use) and losses in conveyance and evaporation as well as other non-recoverable losses
What does 15 percent improvement in irrigation efficiency means?
the simulation of a 15 percent improvement in irrigation efficiency means that up to 15 percent more water is available to the plant for evapotranspiration
the term "irrigation efficiency" has different meanings at different scales such as an irrigation project or a river basin. for this report, we use the standard definitions for "effective irrigation efficiency" in the technical irrigation literature (keller and keller 1995). "agricultural water use" refers to all consumptive water use for irrigation purposes, including both crop evapotranspiration from applied water ("beneficial" use) and losses in conveyance and evaporation as well as other non-recoverable losses. the simulation of a 15 percent improvement in irrigation efficiency means that up to 15 percent more water is available to the plant for evapotranspiration. the water balance analysis is done at the level of major river basins, roughly equivalent to the impact model fpus. for more details, see rosegrant, cai, and cline 2002.
What do the fixed dynamic heating calculations indicate?
however, fixed dynamical heating (fdh) calculations indicate that there is not an inherent problem with broadband schemes in calculating the stratospheric temperature response
since fs99 we have found an error in the implementation of the christidis [1999] broadband scheme in the general circulation model (gcm) used in that study, which is particularly evident in the calculation of stratospheric temperatures due to water vapor changes. this leads to an overestimate of the stratospheric temperature response to swv changes. however, fixed dynamical heating (fdh) calculations indicate that there is not an inherent problem with broadband schemes in calculating the stratospheric temperature response. replacing the gcm radiation scheme with that of zhong et al. [1996] and then repeating the swv experiment in fs99 we obtain a cooling in the lowerstratosphere of 0.3-0.4 k (not shown), bringing our results closer to those of olrsh. in this letter we use the fdh approximation [e.g. forster and shine 1997] to model the stratospheric temperature response. this allows us to employ a more sophisticated radiation scheme and perform many more experiments than would be possible with a gcm. the fdh approximation has been shown to quantitatively agree reasonably well with results from models which include the full dynamical response of the
What phenomenon is associated with the temperatures rising in the recent period?
earlier flowering and maturity of several crops have been documented in recent decades, often associated with higher temperatures
How much, in terms of percentage, is maize growth affected as temperature varies?
n maize, each degree day spent above 30 degc can reduce yield by 1.7% under drought conditions (lobell et al., 2011). impacts of temperature extremes may also be felt at night, with rice yields reduced by 90% with night temperatures of 32 compared with 27 degc
Aside from temperature, two other elements were studied. What are these elements? Was the research successful?
crop response to temperature and photoperiod at supraoptimal temperatures is not well understood
warmer climates will generally accelerate the growth and development of plants, but overly cool or hot weather will also affect productivity. earlier flowering and maturity of several crops have been documented in recent decades, often associated with higher temperatures (craufurd wheeler, 2009). increases in maximum temperatures (as climate or weather) can lead to severe yield reductions and reproductive failure in many crops. in maize, each degree day spent above 30 degc can reduce yield by 1.7% under drought conditions (lobell et al., 2011). impacts of temperature extremes may also be felt at night, with rice yields reduced by 90% with night temperatures of 32 compared with 27 degc (mohammed and tarpley, 2009). in contrast to the effects of temperature and photoperiod at optimum and suboptimum temperatures, crop response to temperature and photoperiod at supraoptimal temperatures is not well understood (craufurd and wheeler, 2009).
Why are the standard OLS formulas for inference incorrect when unobserved soil productivity is likely to be spatially correlated?
in this case, the standard ols formulas for inference are incorrect since the error variance is not spherical
What did these weights emphasize in an unconventional manner?
further, although these weights emphasize the counties that are most important to total agricultural production, they do so in an unconventional manner
What are the two complementary reasons to weight by the square root of acres of farmland?
first, the estimates of the value of farmland from counties with large agricultural operations will be more precise than the estimates from counties with small operations and this weight corrects for the heteroskedasticity associated with the differences in precision. second with this weight, the weighted mean of the dependent variable is equal to the mean value of farmland per acre in the country. mns (1994, 1999) and shf (2005a) both use the square root of the percent of the county in cropland and the square root of total revenue from crop sales as weights
there are three further issues about equation (3) that bear noting. first, it is likely that the error terms are correlated among nearby geographical areas. for example, unobserved soil productivity is likely to be spatially correlated. in this case, the standard ols formulas for inference are incorrect since the error variance is not spherical. in absence of knowledge on the sources and the extent of residual spatial dependence in land value data, we adjust the standard errors for spatial dependence of an unknown form following the approach of conley (1999). the basic idea is that the spatial dependence between two observations will decline as the distance between the counties increases.22 throughout the paper, we present standard errors calculated with the eicker-white formula that allows for heteroskedasticity of an unspecified nature. in addition we also present the conley standard errors for our preferred fixed-effect models. second, it may be appropriate to weight equation (3). since the dependent variable is countylevel farmland values per acre, we think there are two complementary reasons to weight by the square root of acres of farmland. first, the estimates of the value of farmland from counties with large agricultural operations will be more precise than the estimates from counties with small operations and this weight corrects for the heteroskedasticity associated with the differences in precision. second with this weight, the weighted mean of the dependent variable is equal to the mean value of farmland per acre in the country. mns (1994, 1999) and shf (2005a) both use the square root of the percent of the county in cropland and the square root of total revenue from crop sales as weights. we elected not to report the results based on these approaches in the main tables, since the motivation for these weighting schemes is less transparent. for example, it is difficult to justify the assumptions about the variance-covariance matrix that would motivate these weights as a solution to heteroskedasticity. further, although these weights emphasize the counties that are most important to total agricultural production, they do so in an unconventional manner. consequently, the weighted means of the dependent variable with these weights have a non-standard interpretation. for completeness, we report estimates from these weighting schemes in a footnote below but again keep them out of the tables third to probe the robustness of the hedonic approach, we estimate it with data from each of the census years. if this model is specified correctly, the estimates will be unaffected by the year in which the model is estimated. if the estimates differ across years, this may be interpreted as evidence that the hedonic model is misspecified.
What have the recent efforts by Levitus to quantify 20th century warming of the global climate system yielded?
the recent effort by levitus et al. [2001] to quantify 20th century warming of the global climate system has yielded estimates of heat content increases within three of the system's major components: the oceans, atmosphere and cryosphere
What percentage of land-surface is represented?
the land-surface boundary represents 29% of the earth's surface
What would render the assessment incomplete?
an assessment of the heat gained within the global climate system is incomplete if the heat gained by the continents is not included in the accounting
the recent effort by levitus et al. [2001] to quantify 20th century warming of the global climate system has yielded estimates of heat content increases within three of the system's major components: the oceans, atmosphere and cryosphere. in addition to these three, the continental lithosphere is another important component of the global climate system. the land-surface boundary represents 29% of the earth's surface, plays a large role in heat and moisture transport between the air and ground, and influences radiatively important bieogeochemical cycles. thus, an assessment of the heat gained within the global climate system is incomplete if the heat gained by the continents is not included in the accounting.
What characteristic is important for crisis speeches?
dramatisation is certainly important for the crisis discourses ('african apocalypse', lean, independent, 29.10.06; 'ten years to prevent catastrophe', meacher, times, 10.2.06
What is an important characteristic for speeches of serious disasters?
personalisation is particularly evident in the disaster strikes discourse
What is different about the speeches?
it seems again that the influence of the various journalistic norms differs between discourses
a similar in-depth analysis of these issues using the results presented here would stretch to another paper, but some basic observations can be made. it seems again that the influence of the various journalistic norms differs between discourses. dramatisation is certainly important for the crisis discourses ('african apocalypse', lean, independent, 29.10.06; 'ten years to prevent catastrophe', meacher, times, 10.2.06), but less so for others such as rationalism or opportunity. personalisation is particularly evident in the disaster strikes discourse where the voices of local people 44 are heard ('we feel we can't be the guardians of the land like our ancestors anymore and we don't know what to teach our children', kelly, guardian, 29.5.07; 'i am 70 years old now, and the temperatures are getting hotter and hotter as the years go by', lean, independent, 29.10.06), but largely absent from both the mitigation discourses, where countries are the entities and actors recognised. novelty is no doubt important at various points in all the discourses, but it is unlikely to explain the recent large spike in coverage.
How long the emission will occur?
in the dp scenarios, 40-50% of the remaining 21st century emissions occur until 2030, and 68-85% until 20505
How the models compensate emission reduction?
models partly compensate for the emissions reductions in the first half of the century by exploiting the potential for negative emissions from bioenergy use in combination with ccs (beccs) in the second half
What is Figure 5 reveals ?
 figure 5 reveals a relationship between increasing cumulative carbon dioxide absorption from the atmosphere via beccs and increasing amount of forcing overshoot
in the dp scenarios, 40-50% of the remaining 21st century emissions occur until 2030, and 68-85% until 20505. models partly compensate for the emissions reductions in the first half of the century by exploiting the potential for negative emissions from bioenergy use in combination with ccs (beccs) in the second half. the resulting emissions trajectories lead to an overshoot, i.e. forcing levels that temporarily exceed the prescribed 2100 forcing target. figure 5 reveals a relationship between increasing cumulative carbon dioxide absorption from the atmosphere via beccs and increasing amount of forcing overshoot. models differ in the extent of beccs deployment, but most increase the deployment in line with an increasing stringency of the target and with decreasing near-term abatement. beccs deployment can vary by up to 200 gtco2 across the set of limits scenarios. beccs, or more broadly the capability to produce negative emissions, is used to shift some of the required emissions reductions into the future, and to attenuate additional mitigation requirements due to excess emissions in an early period or a more stringent mitigation target. thus, the deployment of negative emissions technologies is a key contributor to 2degc emissions pathways (van vuuren and riahi, 2011). the limits study did not explore scenarios where beccs was excluded from the technology portfolio, but other studies have shown that the unavailability of negative emissions severely impact the achievability and costs of the stringent mitigation targets edenhofer et al, 2010; krey et al., 2013; azar et
What's the approximate cost of the flood-control infrastructure project currently being constructed?
100 million
Whose figures are suggested to be far too low for infrastructure investment?
unfccc
What year's estimates are the infrastructure project's approximated costs based on?
1996
a flood-control infrastructure project is currently being constructed at a cost of approximately $100 million, based on 1996 estimates of a 20-year return period. according to the engineers working on this project, increasing the specifications to withstand a 50-year return flood (even based on 1996 figures) would have resulted in a very considerable increase in costs (dodman et al., forthcoming). the examples from two small cities in eritrea and the philippines illustrate how much even relatively small-scale interventions will cost. there are not only hundreds of large cities but also tens of thousands of small urban centres in 'developing asia', africa, the middle east and latin america and the caribbean with serious infrastructure deficits. there are also billions of rural dwellers in these regions that lack homes and infrastructure that protects them and their livelihoods from climate-change impacts. this suggests that the unfccc figures for infrastructure investment are far too low - for africa, possibly by two or three orders of magnitude. without a larger number of detailed local studies, however, there is no basis for suggesting more realistic adaptation costs.
What are the deeper waters of the Indian Ocean and the Coral Sea characterised by?
the deeper waters of the indian ocean and the coral sea are characterised by a tropical oceanic flora (2a and 2c, respectively) that is dominated by dinoflagellates and follows the leeuwin current (2b) and the east australia current and its eddies (2d
What are the phytoplankton provinces associated with?
the phytoplankton provinces are associated with surface water masses and the zooplankton fauna likely shows a similar pattern (figure prepared by g.m. hallegraeff for csiro and national oceans office
What are the waters south of the tropical and temperate phytoplankton provinces characterised by?
waters south of the tropical and temperate phytoplankton provinces are characterised by an oceanic transition flora (5a,b) that communicates to the subantarctic phytoplankton province (6) and is highly variable in extent
(see also colour figure 3 in the insert.) phytoplankton provinces around australia. in northern shelf waters westwards from torres strait tropical diatom species dominate, with slight regional differences in relative abundances and absolute biomass (1a-c). the shallow waters of the great barrier reef region (3) are dominated by fast-growing nano-sized diatoms. the deeper waters of the indian ocean and the coral sea are characterised by a tropical oceanic flora (2a and 2c, respectively) that is dominated by dinoflagellates and follows the leeuwin current (2b) and the east australia current and its eddies (2d). south-eastern coastal waters harbour a temperate phytoplankton flora (4) with seasonal succession of different diatom and dinoflagellate communities. waters south of the tropical and temperate phytoplankton provinces are characterised by an oceanic transition flora (5a,b) that communicates to the subantarctic phytoplankton province (6) and is highly variable in extent. the phytoplankton provinces are associated with surface water masses and the zooplankton fauna likely shows a similar pattern (figure prepared by g.m. hallegraeff for csiro and national oceans office).
Who have unique geographical resources that may allow them to pursue more renewable energy programs?
states have unique geographical resources that may allow them to pursue more renewable energy programs
Which sources should allow states to pursue a greater number of renewable energy programs?
high amounts of wind and solar resources should allow states to pursue a greater number of renewable energy programs and may encourage a state to pursue more energy efficiency programs as well
How is wind potential is measured for electricity consumption in U.S?
wind potential is measured as the total percentage of u.s. electricity consumption that could be produced by state wind generation
in addition to state political and economic resources, states have unique geographical resources that may allow them to pursue more renewable energy programs. in particular, high amounts of wind and solar resources should allow states to pursue a greater number of renewable energy programs and may encourage a state to pursue more energy efficiency programs as well. wind potential is measured as the total percentage of u.s. electricity consumption that could be produced by state wind generation. this calculation assumes the utilization of all high-quality wind at 30 meters hub height, with 25 percent efficiency and 25 percent losses (elliot schwartz, 1993). solar potential is coded as annual average global radiation for each state (kwh/m2/day).3
What are the instructions given in NRCS ?
converting aerial marker snow depths into swe (davis et al. 1970) incorporate several of the basic ideas presented here, though in a rule-based form
Snow monitoring by in Which measurements ?
snow monitoring by leveraging depth measurements
this approach of deriving swe from snow depth is not new: nrcs instructions from the 1970s for converting aerial marker snow depths into swe (davis et al. 1970) incorporate several of the basic ideas presented here, though in a rule-based form. what is new is our use of snow climate classes to refine bulk density estimates, though the work of mckay and findlay (1971), wilks and mckay (1996), and sturm and holmgren (1998) presaged this part of the approach. the addition of the climate classes broadens the area over which estimates can be derived and improves the estimates. the methodology applied here (using historical data to develop statistically based methods for estimating bulk density) has already been applied to a single snow class (alpine snow: see jonas et al. 2009) where snow depth, altitude, and doy were used as input to a within-class statistical model. the same principle, that bulk density is conservative, served as the basis for this local study and ensured that the approach worked. the ultimate value of the method is that it could potentially improve local, regional, and global estimates of snow resources at a time when budgets for operating traditional measurement monitoring networks have become more difficult to obtain and sustain. using the model increases efficiency and cost effectiveness in snow monitoring by leveraging depth measurements (which can be taken 20 times as fast as swe) into swe. dickinson and whitely (1972), steppuhn (1976), and rovansek et al. (1993) have all proposed schemes that in some way do this, though here we have made the application of the method easier. steppuhn (1976), writing more than 30 years ago, stated that:
When the 61st World Health Assembly resolution--passed unanimously?
the 61st world health assembly resolution--passed unanimously in may, 2008
What are the 5 priorities in the 61st world health Assembly lays out?
extensive documentation of the risks to health and diff erences in vulnerability within and between populations; development of health protection strategies; identifi cation of health co-benefi ts of actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions or to adapt to climate change; development of decision support systems to predict the eff ects of climate change for member states; and estimation of the fi nancial costs of action and inaction
the 61st world health assembly resolution--passed unanimously in may, 2008--lays out fi ve priorities for research and action: extensive documentation of the risks to health and diff erences in vulnerability within and between populations; development of health protection strategies; identifi cation of health co-benefi ts of actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions or to adapt to climate change; development of decision support systems to predict the eff ects of climate change for member states; and estimation of the fi nancial costs of action and inaction. better modelling of basic climate-health association and a comprehensive assessment of current and future climate-related burdens of disease are needed. some climate-health associations cannot be formally modelled (eg, mental health or infectious disease consequences on population displacement), therefore alternative qualitative and longitudinal studies will be needed.97
What are climate change projections often based on?
climate change projections are often based on simulations from multiple global climate models and are presented as maps with some form of stippling or measure of robustness to indicate where different models agree on the projected anthropogenically forced changes
What have the results demonstrated here?
our results demonstrate that the common interpretation of lack of model agreement in precipitation projections is largely an artifact of the large noise from climate variability masking the signal, an issue exacerbated by performing analyses at the grid point scale
What is the argument put forward?
we argue that separating more clearly the case of lack of agreement from the case of lack of signal will add valuable information for stake-holders ' decision making, since adaptation measures required in the two cases are potentially very different
climate change projections are often based on simulations from multiple global climate models and are presented as maps with some form of stippling or measure of robustness to indicate where different models agree on the projected anthropogenically forced changes. the criteria used to determine model agreement, however, often ignore the presence of natural internal variability. we demonstrate that this leads to misleading presentations of the degree of model consensus on the sign and magnitude of the change if the ratio of the signal from the externally forced change to internal variability is low. we present a simple alternative method of depicting multimodel projections which clearly separates lack of climate change signal from lack of model agreement by assessing the degree of consensus on the significance of the change as well as the sign of the change. our results demonstrate that the common interpretation of lack of model agreement in precipitation projections is largely an artifact of the large noise from climate variability masking the signal, an issue exacerbated by performing analyses at the grid point scale. we argue that separating more clearly the case of lack of agreement from the case of lack of signal will add valuable information for stake-holders ' decision making, since adaptation measures required in the two cases are potentially very different. citation: tebaldi, c., j. m. arblaster, and r. knutti (2011), mapping model agreement on future climate projections, geophys. res. lett. 38 l23701, doi:10.1029/2011gl049863.
What percentage loss of the native vegetation in South-east Queensland (SEQ) has caused significant changes that result in declining water quality and loss of aquatic biodiversity?
loss of 75% of the native vegetation in seq has caused significant changes in catchment hydrology and sediment delivery, resulting in declining water quality and loss of aquatic biodiversity (bunn et al. 2007
south-east queensland (seq) contains 14 major river catchments and numerous subcatchments (fig. 1). seq has the highest level of richness and/or endemism of freshwater lungfishes, gobies, catfishes, rainbowfishes, eels, basses, snails, damselflies, limpets, dragonflies, water striders, water beetles and backswimmers in australia (australian government 2011). loss of 75% of the native vegetation in seq has caused significant changes in catchment hydrology and sediment delivery, resulting in declining water quality and loss of aquatic biodiversity (bunn et al. 2007). seq is also australia's fastest growing metropolitan region, and from 2006 to 2031, its population is expected to grow from 2  8 to 4  4 million people and 754 000 additional dwellings will be required (oum 2009). predicted population increases in the region are likely to further impact on the ecological health of its waterways. projected changes in climate will therefore act on freshwater ecosystems that are already under considerable stress and have reduced adaptive capacity. for these reasons, seq provides an excellent case study for understanding the consequences of global change on freshwater biodiversity and how we might conserve it.
What is Pt Et Rt St?
the monthly water balance for a river basin is given by pt et rt st (1) where pt is precipitation during month t e is evapotranspiration, r is runoff, and s is the change in storage, including water stored as soil moisture, snow, and canopy interception
Whar is VIC model?
note that the runoff in equation (1) and figure 8 is not the routed runoff in the channel network, but is the runoff generated at the grid cell level by the vic model
Explain about moisture shortages stress?
evapotranspiration tends to decrease in mid to late summer when moisture shortages stress the vegetation. storage changes tend to be largest in the snow dominated basins. for example, the total storage in the severnaya dvina river basin during may decreases by 109 mm
the monthly water balance for a river basin is given by pt et rt st (1) where pt is precipitation during month t e is evapotranspiration, r is runoff, and s is the change in storage, including water stored as soil moisture, snow, and canopy interception. all terms in equation (1) are understood to be basin averages. figure 8 shows each of the monthly water balance components from equation (1) under current climate conditions. note that the runoff in equation (1) and figure 8 is not the routed runoff in the channel network, but is the runoff generated at the grid cell level by the vic model. although these two quantities are identical when integrated over a sufficiently long period, they differ in their timing. in the tropical river basins, precipitation and evapotranspiration are largely in phase, because enough energy is available for evaporation during most months. in the mid and high latitude basins, evapotranspiration peaks in early summer, when high soil moisture coincides with long days. evapotranspiration tends to decrease in mid to late summer when moisture shortages stress the vegetation. storage changes tend to be largest in the snow dominated basins. for example, the total storage in the severnaya dvina river basin during may decreases by 109 mm. this is the net effect of an increase in soil moisture storage of 31 mm and a decrease in snow water equivalent of 141 mm. on the other hand, the storage change in june of 115 mm is the net effect of a decrease in soil moisture of 104 mm and a decrease of snow water equivalent of 10 mm. storage changes in these basins are positive in the fall and winter, when soil moisture is replenished and water is stored as snow, and negative in spring and summer, when snow melt and evapotranspiration deplete the moisture storage.
How old where the students in the survey?
standage et al. (2003, 2006) demonstrated good internal consistency and construct validity of this scale in their recent work with young adolescents (11-14 years) in physical education
What questions were the students asked?
the scale begins with the question, "how do you feel about being in your pe class
How did participants rate the items?
participants responded to the items on a 5-point scale ranging from strongly disagree (1) to strongly agree (5
five items were used to measure students' perceptions of choice and freedom of action in physical education class (see standage et al., 2003, 2006). the scale begins with the question, "how do you feel about being in your pe class?" and examples of items that follow include, "i can decide which activities i want to practice" and "i have a say regarding what physical activities i want to do." participants responded to the items on a 5-point scale ranging from strongly disagree (1) to strongly agree (5). standage et al. (2003, 2006) demonstrated good internal consistency and construct validity of this scale in their recent work with young adolescents (11-14 years) in physical education.
Define Secretaries and coaches?
secretaries and coaches of the teams that had agreed to take part were contacted and received a letter explaining the purpose of the study
Explain Convenient meeting?
convenient meeting dates and times were then arranged with the coaches. all athletes under the age of eighteen also received informed consent forms to be filled in by their parents/guardians
What is athlets?
none of the athletes were denied permission to participate. a multi-section questionnaire was administered by the principal investigator either before or after a normal practice in a team clubhouse or a classroom
contact information was obtained from the teams' regional organizations. secretaries and coaches of the teams that had agreed to take part were contacted and received a letter explaining the purpose of the study. convenient meeting dates and times were then arranged with the coaches. all athletes under the age of eighteen also received informed consent forms to be filled in by their parents/guardians. none of the athletes were denied permission to participate. a multi-section questionnaire was administered by the principal investigator either before or after a normal practice in a team clubhouse or a classroom. at all meetings, instructions on how to fill in the questionnaire were given, emphasizing that they do so as personally and honestly as possible, that there were no right or wrong answers, and that their responses would be kept confidential. the questionnaire required approximately 25 minutes to complete.
What is the challenge posed?
the challenge is to make better use of the core instruments of poverty reduction policies, such as the poverty reduction strategies (imf/world bank, 2005) and sector-wide approaches that are vital to get access to multilateral and bilateral assistance
How can this practically be achieved?
practically, this can be achieved through 'climate proofing' poverty reduction policies, i.e. systematically evaluating development strategies, policies and projects on their climate dimension
Where are promising results being shown?
promising results are shown by the danish development assistance programme (danida, 2005; klein et al., 2007; agrawala and van aalst, 2008
the challenge is to make better use of the core instruments of poverty reduction policies, such as the poverty reduction strategies (imf/world bank, 2005) and sector-wide approaches that are vital to get access to multilateral and bilateral assistance. practically, this can be achieved through 'climate proofing' poverty reduction policies, i.e. systematically evaluating development strategies, policies and projects on their climate dimension. this means checking whether climate vulnerability is reduced, ghg emissions are minimized, parallel climate change decision-making structures are avoided, affected communities are involved, and traditional knowledge and coping strategies are being used. promising results are shown by the danish development assistance programme (danida, 2005; klein et al., 2007; agrawala and van aalst, 2008).
how many of the EU countries take place in the project?
hundreds of credit-generating projects are going ahead and at least three eu countries (denmark, the netherlands and the uk
what is NGO?
non-governmental organizations
what does WWF stands for?
world wide fund for nature 
at present, there is no consensus on the international monitoring of emissions trading or the means to verify claimed reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. the prospects for such monitoring and verification are still under discussion in the official negotiations. nevertheless, hundreds of credit-generating projects are going ahead and at least three eu countries (denmark, the netherlands and the uk) have begun their own internal greenhouse gas trading schemes, with an eu-wide market set to begin in 2005. what has been emerging in place of un or government-led guidance are initiatives taken by non-governmental organizations (ngos); corporate-led self-monitoring; and entrepreneurial verification schemes by consulting firms. environmental ngos such as the world wide fund for nature (wwf) are developing labeling standards for cdm projects, similar to other controversial labeling schemes such as the forest stewardship council accreditation.10alongside this, more critical ngos such as sinkswatch, world rainforest movement and the cdmwatch attempt to monitor trades and support communities affected by projects by providing them with crucial research and campaigning tools. however, these latter groups are often poorly funded and under-resourced, and it is impossible for ngos to systematically monitor the thousands of transactions that are expected to take place globally once the greenhouse gas markets come into being. meanwhile, oil giants bp and shell have been experimenting with internal trading schemes and have employed self-monitoring to report trades and verify reductions. there are obvious conflicts of interest affecting the reliability of data produced in this way. for example, bp state that their internal trading scheme
Why the ratio pf future projection is calculated?
in order to determine if predicted suitable areas in the future would increase or decrease in relation to current potential areas, we calculated the ratio between each future projection and the present potential occupied area and converted this ratio into a percentage of variation in relation to the latter value
Why would still occupy their present distribution?
we wanted to know if in the future projections bats would still occupy their present distribution
How the result been determined?
results were then averaged for each biogeographic group and scenario with maximum and minimum values also determined
in order to determine if predicted suitable areas in the future would increase or decrease in relation to current potential areas, we calculated the ratio between each future projection and the present potential occupied area and converted this ratio into a percentage of variation in relation to the latter value. similarly, we wanted to know if in the future projections bats would still occupy their present distribution. for this we calculated the proportion of projected suitable area that overlapped with the current distribution. results were then averaged for each biogeographic group and scenario with maximum and minimum values also determined. we also used mann-whitney u -tests to check if the predicted areas occupied in the future that overlapped with the present distribution varied significantly among the biogeographic groups.
What is the Earth and atmosphere heated by?
the earth and atmosphere are heated by solar energy
What is the main greenhouse gas in the current atmosphere?
water vapour is the main greenhouse gas in the current atmosphere
What does adding greenhouse gases to the atmosphere lead to?
seen from space, adding greenhouse gases leads to the average level of emission to space occurring from higher, and therefore cooler, levels of the atmosphere
the earth and atmosphere are heated by solar energy, which is balanced by the emission of thermal (long wave) radiation back to space. atmospheric greenhouse gases absorb thermal radiation from the surface and re-emit (upwards and downwards). water vapour is the main greenhouse gas in the current atmosphere. seen from space, adding greenhouse gases leads to the average level of emission to space occurring from higher, and therefore cooler, levels of the atmosphere. since the thermal emission is reduced as temperature decreases, this leads to a net radiative warming of the surface and atmosphere. the surface and atmosphere therefore warms until the emission of thermal radiation again
What does the dashed horizontal green line in the final panel denote?
the dashed horizontal green line in final panel denotes the modern value of global mean insolation
What does Fig. 7 show?
fig. 7. showing from top to bottom the lisiecki and raymo (2005) benthic oxygen isotope stack
How are present-day values for Eccentricity and Precession indicated on the figure?
with horizontal dashed black and solid red lines showing present-day values for eccentricity and precession
fig. 7. showing from top to bottom the lisiecki and raymo (2005) benthic oxygen isotope stack, obliquity with dashed horizontal showing the present-day value, precession and eccentricity as derived from the astronomical solution of laskar et al. (2004; la04), with horizontal dashed black and solid red lines showing present-day values for eccentricity and precession, and the variation in global mean toa insolation according to la04. the dashed horizontal green line in final panel denotes the modern value of global mean insolation. the vertical black solid lines and the solid red line through each panel represent the best-fit solutions to the modern orbits as well as the selected initial time slice for investigation discussed in sect. 6.2 (figure modified from haywood et al., 2012).
How Latour (1998) describes TEK and the "western dualism"?
the definition of society so critical to our understanding of social worlds, he suggests, was ill conceived from the outset because it emerged as a foil for science. the rise of professional science made possible by this definition was characterized by certainty and by the capability of resolving both disputes and society's ills, and it was founded on a paternal detachment from ideology, passion, or emotion
What are the critiques to the traditional ecological knowledge?
that they treat deeply different cultural perspectives as bridgeable by concepts such as "biodiversity," "sustainable development" or "co-management" framed within scientific discourse (morrow and hensel, 1992; fairhead and leach, 1996
What was the metaphor described by Latour?
society was seen as the flesh of a peach, with science as its hard pit, the site where reality could be defined, where facts could be systematically sorted from values, and objectivity pried from subjectivity
on the surface, narratives that geophysical scientists and athapaskan/tlingit elders tell about glaciers seem largely incompatible. glaciers that are equipped with senses of smell and hearing, alert to the behavior of humans and quick to respond to human indiscretion, sound wholly unlike glacier field sites where scientists can "sieve" for reductive moments that allow measurement of variables involved in climate change. environmental earth scientists--geophysicists, physical geographers, geologists-- study processes that are thousands or even millions of years old, and this seems further to confound issues of commensurability. so are there ways of speaking about global issues such as climate change that accord weight to culturally specific understandings as well as to the universalistic frameworks of science? internationally, there has been an explosion of interest in indigenous knowledge or "traditional ecological knowledge" during the 1990s. at the end of the 20th century, "tek" is a term ubiquitous in resource management plans concerning caribou, fisheries, and forestry management (the management having primarily to do with regulating human use of ungulates, fish, and forests). a growing critique of the uses and abuses of traditional knowledge identifies an underlying, problematic premise of tek studies: that they treat deeply different cultural perspectives as bridgeable by concepts such as "biodiversity," "sustainable development" or "co-management" framed within scientific discourse (morrow and hensel, 1992; fairhead and leach, 1996). anthropologists have questioned both the validity of subsuming varieties of indigenous knowledge within theoretical frameworks that rely on north atlantic notions of intentionality and subjectivity (bruun and kalland, 1995; scott, 1996) and the consequences of appropriating locally generated knowledge as a flag of convenience for bureaucratic management strategies (nadasdy, 1999). oral traditions from northwestern north america consistently demonstrate the social nature of all relations between humans and nonhumans (animals, plants, and landscape features, such as glaciers), a concept that fits awkwardly with western science. codified in government reports, information formulated as tek tends to reify and reinforce a western dualism--prying nature from culture--that local narratives challenge in the first place. sentient landscapes shift their shape once they are engulfed by these frameworks and transformed into "land and resources." bruno latour (1998), who bridges with apparent effortlessness this historically constructed great divide between nature and culture, formulates the issues succinctly. the definition of society so critical to our understanding of social worlds, he suggests, was ill conceived from the outset because it emerged as a foil for science. the rise of professional science made possible by this definition was characterized by certainty and by the capability of resolving both disputes and society's ills, and it was founded on a paternal detachment from ideology, passion, or emotion. latour poses a metaphor: society was seen as the flesh of a peach, with science as its hard pit, the site where reality could be defined, where facts could be systematically sorted from values, and objectivity pried from subjectivity. such distinctions now seem ludicrous in a world of mad cows, ozone holes, zygotes, and climate change, and latour describes the growing shift in contemporary public expectations about science. science, he says, must redefine itself as research committed to understanding uncertainty and risk, prepared to contribute to controversies rather than end them, and expected to add to complexity rather than to create social order.
state some example of future effects of climate change?
for example, in temperate countries, as summers become hotter and heat waves more severe, modeling indicates that, from around midcentury, additional heat-related deaths will progressively overwhelm the number of deaths averted as a result of milder winters.42,43 such estimates of the extreme effects of weather will improve as the modeling of changes in climatic variability under climate-change conditions improves and as researchers take better account of physiological, behavioral, and technological adaptation by populations over time
what does the modeling of medium-scenario in china indicates?
in china, the modeling of medium-scenario warming indicates that the transmission zone of freshwater snail-mediated schistosomiasis will extend northward, putting another 20 million people at risk by 2050
what is the important research task?
an important research task is to identify ongoing changes in health risks and outcomes that can be reasonably attributed to recent climate change
the likely future effects of climate change on various health outcomes have been modeled with the use of plausible scenarios of future climate change that have been agreed on internationally. for example, in temperate countries, as summers become hotter and heat waves more severe, modeling indicates that, from around midcentury, additional heat-related deaths will progressively overwhelm the number of deaths averted as a result of milder winters.42,43 such estimates of the extreme effects of weather will improve as the modeling of changes in climatic variability under climate-change conditions improves and as researchers take better account of physiological, behavioral, and technological adaptation by populations over time. in china, the modeling of medium-scenario warming indicates that the transmission zone of freshwater snail-mediated schistosomiasis will extend northward, putting another 20 million people at risk by 2050.44 such model-based estimation of the direction and approximate extent of likely change in health risks is an important resource for decision-making about both climatechange abatement and localized adaptation. meanwhile, an important research task is to identify ongoing changes in health risks and outcomes that can be reasonably attributed to recent climate change. given the multivariate causation of most human health outcomes, attribution is rarely simple.45 nevertheless, over the past decade, observed changes in some health outcomes, viewed collectively, suggest a climate signal (table 2).18,38,46
Why do Americans perceive the risk of global warming as a "moderate" risk?
americans perceive climate change as a moderate risk that will predominantly impact geographically and temporally distant people and places
Why is it important for the public to understand the true risk of global warming?
public risk perceptions can fundamentally compel or constrain political, economic and social action to address particular risks
What kind of strategies contribute to spreading the truth about the risk of global warming?
ways that either resonate with the values and predispositions of particular audiences or that directly challenge fundamental misconceptions
large majorities of americans believe that global warming is real and consider it a serious problem, yet global warming remains a low priority relative to other national and environmental issues and lacks a sense of urgency.1 to understand this lack of urgency, the study on which this chapter is based examined the risk perceptions and connotative meanings of global warming in the american mind and found that americans perceive climate change as a moderate risk that will predominantly impact geographically and temporally distant people and places. this research also identified several distinct interpretive communities of climate change: segments of the public that conceptualize and respond to the issue in very different ways. the chapter concludes with five strategies to communicate about global warming in ways that either resonate with the values and predispositions of particular audiences or that directly challenge fundamental misconceptions. public risk perceptions are critical components of the socio-political context within which policy makers operate. public risk perceptions can fundamentally compel or constrain political, economic and social action to address particular risks. for example, public support or opposition 1 this chapter builds on the findings from a national study (leiserowitz, 2003) on american risk perceptions of global warming.
What is required for correlative modeling of the existing fundamental niche?
correlative modeling of the existing fundamental niche requires assumptions regarding bias versus noise in the sample of occurrence data
Do biotic interactions cause the species to occupy an environmentally biased subset of the areas abiotically suitable for it?
similarly, in the biotic noise assumption biotic interactions do not cause the species to occupy an environmentally biased subset of the areas abiotically suitable for it.das
What might merely add noise to the data set without distorting the species niche signal?
rather, out of all of the abiotically suitable areas, the particular ones occupied versus not occupied might merely add noise to the data set, without distorting the species' niche signal
calibration.8,9,29,30however, in nonequilibrium situations, the effects of these nonabiotic factors do not necessarily lead to biases in the information provided regarding the species' niche signal. rather, out of all of the abiotically suitable areas, the particular ones occupied versus not occupied might merely add noise to the data set, without distorting the species' niche signal. furthermore, it is possible that variation in the species' abundance due to these nonabiotic factors would only generate noise, rather than bias. therefore, rather than strict equilibrial conditions, correlative modeling of the existing fundamental niche requires assumptions regarding bias versus noise in the sample of occurrence data. i formalize these assumptions regarding occurrence data as the dispersal/demograpic noise assumption, the biotic noise assumption, and the human noise assumption (table 4). each relates to the situation for a particular species in a given study region. they acknowledge the pervasiveness of nonequilibrium distributions, where a species occupies a subset of the geographic areas that are abiotically suitable for it, and instead focus on the relevant issue of the corresponding environmental information. first, in the dispersal/demographic noise assumption factors related to dispersal, establishment, and persistence do not cause the species to occupy an environmentally biased subset of the areas abiotically suitable for it. similarly, in the biotic noise assumption biotic interactions do not cause the species to occupy an environmentally biased subset of the areas abiotically suitable for it.das
What is school climate based on?
school climate is based on patterns of people's experiences of school life and reflects norms, goals, values, interpersonal relationships, teaching and learning practices, and organizational structures
What do educators do?
educators model and nurture an attitude that emphasizes the benefits of, and satisfaction from, learning
What does the school climate nurture?
this climate includes norms, values, and expectations that support people feeling socially, emotionally and physically safe
school climate is based on patterns of people's experiences of school life and reflects norms, goals, values, interpersonal relationships, teaching and learning practices, and organizational structures. a sustainable, positive school climate fosters youth development and learning necessary for a productive, contributive, and satisfying life in a democratic society. this climate includes norms, values, and expectations that support people feeling socially, emotionally and physically safe. people are engaged and respected. students, families and educators work together to develop, live, and contribute to a shared school vision. educators model and nurture an attitude that emphasizes the benefits of, and satisfaction from, learning. each person contributes to the operations of the school as well as the care of the physical environment. (p. 4)
What document details where people how materials ought to be distributed?
the sphere handbook on humanitarian assistance
What is a useful tool for aiding in future disaster relief efforts?
community medical centre
What should be the first step in hygenie promotion?
to establish a need for the education activity with people and involve community members in production of materials to ensure they are relevant and appropriate. to enhance receptivity to the materials, there should be an effort to encourage positive existing practices and to avoid judgemental messages that suggest people are to blame for their family's ill-health
tapsell et al. (2002) report a series of complaints from focus-group participants after floods in the north-east of england (2000) that public health information was delayed. 'flyers were sent out by local authorities a day or two after the floods, advising people to wash their hands if they were handling contaminated goods. most people stated that these notices arrived too late as they had immediately begun to clean their homes the moment the flood waters had receded' (tapsell et al. 2002, p1517). the participants in the study also complained that they had received conflicting advice on health from different authorities. clarity of message also depends on the form of the message the sphere handbook on humanitarian assistance stresses the need to ensure materials reach all vulnerable sectors of the population and are appropriate to all. in situations where literacy is low, it may be more culturally appropriate to communicate hygiene promotion through participatory techniques other than written instruction (the sphere project, 2004). wisner and adams (2002) add to this that a first step should be to establish a need for the education activity with people and involve community members in production of materials to ensure they are relevant and appropriate. to enhance receptivity to the materials, there should be an effort to encourage positive existing practices and to avoid judgemental messages that suggest people are to blame for their family's ill-health. with thoughtful intervention, it may be feasible to draw positive lessons from flood experience during the recovery stage to enhance health promotion in general maber (1989) reports how flood disaster highlighted poor hygiene practices and inadequate knowledge of causes and treatment of common diseases in a town in north-east peru. health promotion became a key parallel activity to a participatory programme of sanitation works. a community medical centre was established, which concentrated efforts on regional campaigns, education programmes and workshops on general preventive medicine and practices. in india, after the orissa cyclone in 1999, relief agencies became involved in training programmes for local volunteers and teachers that took a similarly wide approach to the communities' future health needs (palakudiyil and todd 2003).
What does GFDL stands for?
the geophysical fluid dynamics laboratory
How GFDL helped in studying the earth's climate?
the geophysical fluid dynamics laboratory (gfdl) has provided a friendly and exciting environment for studying the earth's climate. gfdl has nurtured honest and rich scientific relationships through the active exchange of knowledge, experience, and ideas, and it encourages scientists to attack critical research problems that may take decades to resolve
Who is the founder of GFDL ?
the greatest legacies of gfdl's founder joseph smagorinsky
during my years in climate research, the geophysical fluid dynamics laboratory (gfdl) has provided a friendly and exciting environment for studying the earth's climate. gfdl has nurtured honest and rich scientific relationships through the active exchange of knowledge, experience, and ideas, and it encourages scientists to attack critical research problems that may take decades to resolve. these are perhaps the greatest legacies of gfdl's founder joseph smagorinsky, whose prescient and uncompromising vision for climate science from the 1950's to 1980's is still unfolding in the twenty-first century. this book draws its inspiration from the many creative researchers within the oceanography and climate science communities. at an increasing rate, these communities share a sense that scientifically based models of sound physical, mathematical, and numerical integrity are effective tools to further understanding of the ocean and the earth's climate. i also owe a debt to the mathematical engineers and physicists encountered during my undergraduate and graduate studies in engineering, mathematics, and physics. their lessons regarding how clear and general mathematical statements lead to deep physical understanding are hopefully reflected in these pages. i have had valuable input from readers of various drafts of this book over the years. each of their comments helped me to clarify or correct many discussions. there are too many readers to thank in full. nonetheless, i owe greg holloway and trevor mcdougall special thanks for their extra level of detailed, and often critical, input.
What encompasses vulnerability reducation?
vulnerability reduction encompasses a more fundamental challenge than what is routinely considered in the bank project cycle
State some contributions of maladaptation
examples of the way maladaptation can contribute to large development setbacks abound in the recent history of natural disasters, including extreme examples such as hurricane mitch in central america
What is the role of the world bank in this situation?
acknowledging the importance of these cross-cutting challenges, the world bank is at the cutting edge in addressing vulnerability and adaptation in cooperation with its client countries
from that perspective, vulnerability reduction encompasses a more fundamental challenge than what is routinely considered in the bank project cycle. taking into account climatic circumstances, and more particularly climate variability and extremes, requires a more integrated approach than just the proper design of separate projects. maladaptation - policies and practices that increase vulnerability - may occur even when by current standards development is progressing well. to avoid maladaptation, vulnerability reduction works best when it is integrated in national planning, and reflected in both policies and projects. addressed at the level of single sectoral investments important linkages may be missed. for instance, a hydraulic design for a hydropower plant may not consider the actual or potential degradation of the forests in the upper watershed above the dam site, even when that may be a major factor determining trends in runoff and sedimentation. such concerns may be relegated to a low priority for reasons of professional bias or institutional rigidities. where such issues are seriously addressed a response may be to modify the design of the dam, rather than to prepare an action plan to deal with the watershed degradation. and even when things are well integrated on the project level and all win-win opportunities between sectors are being identified and included, there may be policy issues that are not captured in project designs. when a hydropower plant or an irrigation scheme fully considers the possible variability in precipitation and runoff under present and future (climate change) conditions power subsidies and water pricing may still induce the wasteful allocation of resources in a way that can become a larger threat to sustainable water use. unfortunately, there are such many such examples, where current government policies and measures address specific local problems while contributing to the vulnerability of the country as a whole, or of a particular region or sector. as long as development work in those areas fails to address some of those fundamental issues, or at least takes them into account in work in related areas, some of the primary vulnerabilities will remain in the system, and wellmeant development work may be rendered ineffective, or even counterproductive. examples of the way maladaptation can contribute to large development setbacks abound in the recent history of natural disasters, including extreme examples such as hurricane mitch in central america. some of these unintended adverse consequences have been described in detail elsewhere (e.g., van aalst and burton 2002). at the same time it is recognized that there is no such thing as zero risk. how much adaptation (including engineering protection) can be justified under the current climate regime, and how can current and projected variability and extreme events be factored in? the general diagnosis - a need for better risk management is relatively straightforward, where and how to start is not. all this speaks to the need for the development and strengthening of routine climate risk management approaches in bank work. acknowledging the importance of these cross-cutting challenges, the world bank is at the cutting edge in addressing vulnerability and adaptation in cooperation with its client countries.
What could China be more willing to do if consumers in developed countries were to become partially responsible for China's export emissions?
play an active role in post-kyoto climate commitments
What may recognizing the role the international trade plays in greenhouse gas emissions lead to?
open new opportunities
What can be argued on the basis of consumers in developed countries also benefiting from export growth as China's economic development benefits from it?
that they should be held at least somewhat responsible for emissions occurring because of their demand for lowpriced goods
on the one hand, while china's economic development benefits from export growth, so do the consumers in developed countries, and it can be argued that they should be held at least somewhat responsible for emissions occurring because of their demand for lowpriced goods. if these consumers were to become partially responsible for china's export emissions (peters, 2008), perhaps china would be more willing to play an active role in post-kyoto climate commitments. in general, recognizing the role the international trade plays in greenhouse gas emissions may open new opportunities, and is possibly a precondition for political agreement (peters and hertwich, 2008a).
Why do people lose knowingly?
people knowingly lose out because they prefer to hold to values that matter to them
How can a person move on creatively with life?
if the desire and the loss in these choices are acknowledged and mourned, they can be left behind and the person can move on creatively with their life
If loss is denied, then what is likely to be the effect?
if the loss is denied then the effect is to breed resentment and bitterness, and to create a cruel, puritanical superego that meets the world with severity and criticism
chosen loss and the capacity for concern choosing loss when there is an alternative is often seen as foolish or masochistic: selflessness and self-sacrifice are not popular, contemporary virtues. however we all make moral choices of this kind. people knowingly lose out because they prefer to hold to values that matter to them. for example, although it is possible to acquire many consumer items through theft, most people choose not to do so because they believe it to be wrong. others decide that a good salary and all it brings doesn't make it ok to work in the arms trade or that the pleasures of a weekend with friends don't justify breaking a promise to visit relatives. if the desire and the loss in these choices are acknowledged and mourned, they can be left behind and the person can move on creatively with their life. if the loss is denied then the effect is to breed resentment and bitterness, and to create a cruel, puritanical superego that meets the world with severity and criticism. personal desire is denied, then projected into others who are deemed to be at fault and who can be criticised or disapproved of. this has been one of the pitfalls of the environmental movement in the past but it might be avoided through better understanding of the processes of mourning. people's positive valuations of the natural world can give them strength in making choices that involve loss. spiritual and religious beliefs that validate connectedness or responsibility, empathy for the rest of the nature and opportunities for restorative experiences in natural surroundings may all provide support to people who make these difficult choices. in carbon conversations groups it has often been the discussions on these themes that have provided nourishment to group members. the work of tom crompton and tim kasser (2009) confirms that appeals to intrinsic and selftranscendent values can be valuable in promoting pro-environmental behaviours. framing chosen loss in terms of winnicott's 'capacity for concern' (op.cit.) may also be helpful. 'capacity for concern' is winnicott's development of melanie klein's idea that the achievement of ambivalence involves guilt and the need for reparation for damage done to the loved object. in winnicott's 13 13 more positive vision the capacity for concern is '...at the back of all constructive play and work'. p.73). when fierce, instinctual greed and destructiveness can be acknowledged and contained, then there is the possibility that reparative concerns and constructive aims can emerge. however winnicott also makes it clear that constructive and creative desires and experiences are necessary in order for the experience of destructiveness to be properly acknowledged and lived. in winnicott's view although this integrative capacity has its origins in infancy, it continues to be developed and strengthened through the experiences of childhood, adulthood and old age. in relation to climate change, when the capacity for concern can be awakened in people, then loss can be chosen as part of a desirable, creative act that strengthens the individual both personally and socially. transitional loss losses that are encountered as the consequence of moving from one state to another may also provide a helpful model in exploring the losses of climate change. where the new state is broadly seen as desirable, then the ambivalence at leaving behind and losing the old one can be easily overcome. moving from childhood into adolescence, getting married, moving to a pleasanter neighbourhood might be examples of this. it is a loss to know that one can never again hang upside down from a climbing frame with that 10 year old ease, but the sadness usually passes and the excitements of adolescence compensate. sometimes however the new state feels less attractive than the old one or the ambivalence is stronger. the transition from middle age into old age is rarely embraced as enthusiastically as that from adolescence into adulthood. giving up smoking means exchanging a known pleasure and support for the unknown benefit of better health a long way in the future. whether the transition is achieved is often dependent on whether the elements that are lost can be mourned and let go of. it is a matter of debate whether the future that awaits us will be preferable to the lives we live now. some people look forward hopefully to all kinds of social ills being healed in the transition to a low-carbon future others focus on the threat to their aspirations and identity. whether the transitional losses that climate change brings are more positive than negative may depend on the values, perspectives and social status of particular individuals. understanding the losses as well as the gains may be particularly important in working with people whose identity is closely reinforced by material objects and social status or whose aspirations are likely to be disappointed because of the changes needed. anticipatory loss there is some evidence that anticipating and preparing for loss can be helpful psychologically. (parkes, op.cit.) for example, working through some of the emotions of grief may help the wife of a dying man take over the tasks and roles of her husband and make plans for her children's future. dealing with feelings of anger and bitterness may help someone threatened with losing their job plan for an alternative career. 14 14 anticipatory grieving is rarely straightforward however. people can feel they are hastening the death of a loved one by preparing for its aftermath. they may feel guilty making plans for a future the dying person will not share. and if the anticipated loss does not materialise or if there is reprieve after reprieve, then the process of anticipatory mourning becomes exhausting and anger and cynicism may replace grief. ideas about anticipatory loss may be useful in helping people prepare for the inevitable changes that climate change will bring, particularly those involved in personal carbon reduction. for anticipatory grieving to be useful however, there must be a certain belief that the loss is inevitable, a realistic time-frame in which it is likely to happen and support in dealing with the anxieties that arise. this requires firm political commitments about practicalities and timescales that most politicians seem unwilling to make at present.
What atlas has been used?
we used the ebcc atlas of european breeding birds (hagemeijer blair, 1997
What is the bird atlas based on?
the bird atlas is based on the common european chorological grid reference system (cgrs
To which grids was the criterion not applied?
we did not apply this criterion on the subsequently aggregated 100 km * 100 km and 200 km * 200 km grids
we used the ebcc atlas of european breeding birds (hagemeijer blair, 1997). the bird atlas is based on the common european chorological grid reference system (cgrs) but there are some subtle differences in the shapes of some of the 50 km * 50 km grid cells. we used only 50 km * 50 km grid cells that were indicated as 'good cells' in the atlas (data received for at least 75% of expected breeding species in the grid cell). we did not apply this criterion on the subsequently aggregated 100 km * 100 km and 200 km * 200 km grids.
What may influence the dispersal and thus genetic structure of mangrove populations?
although most mangrove propagules and other debris are contained within estuaries, because of hydrological properties of estuaries185, changes in oceanic circulation (steinberg chapter 3) may influence dispersal and thus the genetic structure of mangrove populations
Enhanced gene flow among separated populations may increase what?
enhanced gene flow among separated populations may increase the adaptive capacity of mangrove species
Have range-shifts and s of northern mangrove species to southern locations been confirmed?
s of northern mangrove species to more southern localities may also be possible (eg studies on drift seeds by hacker101, smith et al.165) and could increase the diversity and productivity of southern mangrove communities, but range-shifts and s of northern mangrove species to southern locations have not yet been documented
climate change and the great barrier reef: a vulnerability assessment chapter 9: vulnerability of mangroves and tidal wetlands of the great barrier reef to climate change separate populations that do not currently interbreed73,25. although most mangrove propagules and other debris are contained within estuaries, because of hydrological properties of estuaries185, changes in oceanic circulation (steinberg chapter 3) may influence dispersal and thus the genetic structure of mangrove populations. enhanced gene flow among separated populations may increase the adaptive capacity of mangrove species. s of northern mangrove species to more southern localities may also be possible (eg studies on drift seeds by hacker101, smith et al.165) and could increase the diversity and productivity of southern mangrove communities, but range-shifts and s of northern mangrove species to southern locations have not yet been documented.
Which are two ways in that climate change can be adressed?
by mitigation (reducing the sources or enhancing the sinks of greenhouse gases) and adaptation (reducing the impacts of climate change
To which author e-mail should correspondence be adressed?
bruno.locatelli@cirad.fr
How were the approaches of mitigation and adaptation investigated for the paper?
through case studies
catie, turrialba 7150, costa rica; e-mail: rvignola@catie.ac.cr author to whom correspondence should be addressed; e-mail: bruno.locatelli@cirad.fr; tel.: +62-251-8-622-622; fax: +62-251-8-622-100. received: 16 february 2011; in revised form: 1 march 2011 accepted: 7 march 2011 published: 18 march 2011 climate change can be addressed by mitigation (reducing the sources or enhancing the sinks of greenhouse gases) and adaptation (reducing the impacts of climate change). mitigation and adaptation present two fundamentally dissimilar approaches whose differences are now well documented. forest ecosystems play an important role in both adaptation and mitigation and there is a need to explore the linkages between these two options in order to understand their trade-offs and synergies. in forests, potential trade-offs can be observed between global ecosystem services, such as the carbon sequestration relevant for mitigation, and the local ecosystem services that are relevant for adaptation. in addition, mitigation projects can facilitate or hinder the adaptation of local people to climate change, whereas adaptation projects can affect ecosystems and their potential to sequester carbon. linkages between adaptation and mitigation can also be observed in policies, but few climate change or forest policies have addressed these linkages in the forestry sector. this paper presents examples of linkages between adaptation and mitigation in latin american forests. through case studies, we investigate the approaches and reasons for integrating adaptation into mitigation projects or mitigation into
What does the resarch address?
what motivates states to adopt climate change policies
What are th two different dependent variables that are measured?
i test the internal determinants model by measuring the absolute number of energy efficiency and renewable energy policies adopted by each state between 1990 and 2007
in order to address the research question--what motivates states to adopt climate change policies--i measure two different dependent variables and employ two models. i test the internal determinants model by measuring the absolute number of energy efficiency and renewable energy policies adopted by each state between 1990 and 2007. this cross-sectional analysis allows me to test the motivations for policy adoption across an entire class of state climate change policies, giving a better understanding of how internal determinants may affect the adoption of many types of state climate change policies. while the absolute number of policies is not a measurement of overall policy strength, it is a measurement of regulatory activity and an indicator of how much policy activity takes place in the states. unfortunately, this modeling choice does not allow me to test the regional diffusion model of policy adoption against the internal determinants model. in order to test the internal determinants model of state policy adoption against the regional diffusion model, i conduct an event history analysis. to complete this, i must limit the analysis of climate change policies to one specific type of policy. for the event history analysis, i measure whether a state adopts a renewable portfolio standard in each year between 1997 and 2005. a more complete discussion regarding specific choices in measurement and estimation will follow in the specific discussion for each model.
How can low discounting be illustrated?
the effect of low discounting can be illustrated with a "wrinkle experiment
What should we pay?
the answer is that we should pay up to 56 percent of one year's world consumption today to remove the wrinkle
How much would the one-time consumption hit be in dollars?
one-time consumption hit of approximately $30,000 billion today to fix a tiny problem that begins in 2200
the effect of low discounting can be illustrated with a "wrinkle experiment." suppose that scientists discover a wrinkle in the climate system that will cause damages equal to 0.1 percent of net consumption starting in 2200 and continuing at that rate forever after. how large a one-time investment would be justified today to remove the wrinkle that starts only after two centuries using the methodology of the review, the answer is that we should pay up to 56 percent of one year's world consumption today to remove the wrinkle.26 in other words, it is worth a one-time consumption hit of approximately $30,000 billion today to fix a tiny problem that begins in 2200.27
wheres they Hesperia comma populations?
hesperia comma populations were traditionally restricted to very sparse vegetation on hot south-facing slopes
where they lay the eggs now?
h. comma egg-laying rates and the species can now utilize a greater variety of f. ovina plants for oviposition
where the Hesperia comma species is now recovered?
climate warming has been an important driving force in the recovery of h. comma in britain
hesperia comma populations were traditionally restricted to very sparse vegetation on hot south-facing slopes (thomas et al 1986). warmer ambient temperatures have increased h. comma egg-laying rates and the species can now utilize a greater variety of f. ovina plants for oviposition. these climate-mediated changes in habitat associations and egg-laying rates have facilitated the colonization of an increasingly wide range of aspects and habitats that were previously too cool to be utilized. since 1982, the species has undergone a vigorous range re-expansion (thomas et al 2001; davies et al 2005). climate warming has been an important driving force in the recovery of h. comma in britain, on the cool northern edge of the species' geographical range, as the suitable habitats are constrained by temperature. the rise in ambient temperature experienced by the butterfly will have aided the metapopulation reexpansion in a number of ways. first, greater temperatures should increase the potential fecundity of h. comma females. if this results in larger populations, for which there is some evidence (e.g. 32 of the 45 habitat patches occupied in the surrey network experienced site-level increases in population density between 1982 and 2000), they will be less prone to extinction and will result in larger numbers of dispersing migrant individuals being available to colonize unoccupied habitat patches and establish new populations. secondly, the wider range of thermal and physical microhabitats used for egg-laying increased the potential resource density within each grassland habitat fragment (this could be interpreted either as an increase in effective 255 changing habitat associations of a butterfly
What are dimensions of a cultural diversity?
dimensions of cultural diversity visible dimensions race/ethnicity foreign-born status gender invisible dimensions religion sexual orientation under-representation of minorities in academics few in numbers at all levels of training lack of prior educational opportunities poor recruitment efforts educational debt or lack independent wealth advantages and disadvantages in workplace
What is race ethnicity?
dimensions of cultural diversity visible dimensions race/ethnicity foreign-born status gender invisible dimensions religion sexual orientation under-representation of minorities in academics few in numbers at all levels of training lack of prior educational opportunities poor recruitment efforts educational debt or lack independent wealth advantages and disadvantages in workplace
What is gender invisible dimensions?
dimensions of cultural diversity visible dimensions race/ethnicity foreign-born status gender invisible dimensions religion sexual orientation under-representation of minorities in academics few in numbers at all levels of training lack of prior educational opportunities poor recruitment efforts educational debt or lack independent wealth advantages and disadvantages in workplace
dimensions of cultural diversity visible dimensions race/ethnicity foreign-born status gender invisible dimensions religion sexual orientation under-representation of minorities in academics few in numbers at all levels of training lack of prior educational opportunities poor recruitment efforts educational debt or lack independent wealth advantages and disadvantages in workplace related to race or ethnicity minority intraracial networking not possible lack of acknowledgment or invisible to colleagues derogatory statements about minority patients related to gender women assigned extra responsibilities related to race and gender minority females more disadvantaged related to foreign-born status visa status impacts grant funding lack of leadership support for promotion related to professional relationships informal networking mentorship manifestations of bias in academic medicine related to race or ethnicity disparities in recruitment efforts disparities in promotion criteria disparities in leadership behavior toward faculty differential scrutinizing of professional competence or credentials related to foreign-born status disparities in recruitment efforts english language dysfluency suggestions to improve diversity climate increase self-awareness of attitudes leadership making diversity a priority increase diversity in leadership increase diversity of faculty/staff
What is derived from strath terrace sediment that track well with strath height?
osl ages derived from strath terrace sediment track well with strath height
What are a factor of 2 greater than nearby modern erosion rates?
paleoerosion rates from the upper strath terrace are a factor of 2 greater than nearby modern erosion rates
Where do we have no age control on terrace samples?
we have no age control on terrace samples near the mouth
be concentrations in strath terrace sediment decrease with strath height such that concentrations from the upper strath are only two-thirds of those found in modern river and holocene terrace sediment, and onethird of those found in samples from a pleistocene-holocene (p-h) transitional terrace (table 1). osl ages derived from strath terrace sediment track well with strath height, indicating that the upper strath surface is late pleistocene in age, while lower strath surfaces range in age from the p-h transition to the middle holocene (figs. 1 and 2; table 1). after a correction for postdepositional production, paleoerosion rates from the upper strath terrace are a factor of 2 greater than nearby modern erosion rates and 3.5 times greater than paleoerosion rates from the p-h transition (fig. 3). we have no age control on terrace samples near the mouth
In which was is natural variability serially correlated?
natural variability is in fact serially correlated and thus requires significance tests
Over what time period is the difference in mean zonal average retractability calculated?
difference in the mean zonal average refractivity for profile-to-profile ucar and gfz fractional refractivity pairs over the period from january 2006 to december 2006
using this scaling law, we deduce that the contribution of retrieval error to a 10 year time series of continuous data, with just one occultation satellite, is  0.01%/10 years. in the final analysis, the fluctuations of natural variability will also contribute to and in fact dominate the uncertainty due to retrieval error. natural variability is in fact serially correlated and thus requires significance tests such as that of weatherhead et al. [1998] and bretherton et al. [1999]. 5.3. the uncertainty of anomaly trends due to inversion algorithm among centers in the present anomaly trend analysis we demonstrate that, even though there might not be a statistically significant climate trend because of the presence of natural variability, trends derived from gps ro data are robust for different processing implementations because gps ro is traceable to international standards. because trends deduced by various centers are in general within +-0.03%/5 years globally, then when a statistically significant climate trend emerges in this data type, we can be confident that all processing centers will agree in the trend estimation. large figure 13. difference in the mean zonal average refractivity for profile-to-profile ucar and gfz fractional refractivity pairs over the period from january 2006 to december 2006.
When does the field work carried?
field work was carried out in june 2006
Why semistructured interviews used?
we used semistructured interviews so that answers could be analysed by means of statistics to detect significant patterns among people and places with regard to perceptions, impacts and interpretations of climate change. in each of the six villages 15 people were interviewed. only people above ca
Why people of six villages be interviewed?
in each of the six villages 15 people were interviewed. only people above ca. 30 years of age were included in the survey to ensure that participants could make meaningful comparisons between the past and present. because of practical limitations (time constraints and remoteness and small size of villages) participants were selected on the basis of equal gender and age representation, while limiting respondents to one person per
what climate changes have tibetan villagers near mt. khawa karpo noticed and how do these compare to changes noticed and predicted in scientific literature? 2. to what extent do perceptions of climate change vary among people and places in the area? 3. how do perceived changes impact the lives of tibetan villagers in the area? 4. how do tibetan villagers interpret and evaluate perceived changes? field work was carried out in june 2006. we used semistructured interviews so that answers could be analysed by means of statistics to detect significant patterns among people and places with regard to perceptions, impacts and interpretations of climate change. in each of the six villages 15 people were interviewed. only people above ca. 30 years of age were included in the survey to ensure that participants could make meaningful comparisons between the past and present. because of practical limitations (time constraints and remoteness and small size of villages) participants were selected on the basis of equal gender and age representation, while limiting respondents to one person per
WHAT ARE THE AUTHOUR OBSERVE?
we observe an increase in wave heights in the equatorial south pacific ocean during the southern trades season (jas
WHAT RELATIONSHIP EXISTS IN THIS PASSAGE?
a strong, well-established, relationship exists between el-nino - southern oscillation (enso) and the pacific wave climate4,sm15, with larger wave heights experienced in the central equatorial pacific during positive phases of el-nino
we observe an increase in wave heights in the equatorial south pacific ocean during the southern trades season (jas). timmerman et al.21 found reduced warming in the south-eastern tropical pacific was accompanied by an intensification of the south-easterly trades in a 14-member ensemble of cmip3 gcms for an sres a1b scenario, consistent with the projected increase in wave heights in this region. a strong, well-established, relationship exists between el-nino - southern oscillation (enso) and the pacific wave climate4,sm15, with larger wave heights experienced in the central equatorial pacific during positive phases of el-nino. while much uncertainty surrounds future projections of elnino variability, the projected changes in wave height are consistent with a weak shift towards conditions which may be described as el-nino-likesm14.
On what does cv both the daily and multiday precipitation amounts depends?
the cvs of both the daily and multiday precipitation amounts depend on the wet-day frequency
Which simulation method is better among RCM and RAMO if  nonlinear transformation is taken into consideration?
the nonlinear transformation may do less well for rcm simulations having a larger bias in the wet-day frequency than the racmo simulations considered in this study
What question will be addressed in the subsequent study?
the next question is whether the presented approach can successfully be applied to the output of rcm scenario runs
resampling of regional climate model output for the simulation of extreme river flows 495 properties of the multi-day precipitation totals instead of daily precipitation. the used correction does not adjust the frequency of wet days. biases in the wet-day frequency, or more general, the left tail of the frequency distribution of daily precipitation have usually little influence on the distribution of extreme river flows. however, the cvs of both the daily and multiday precipitation amounts depend on the wet-day frequency. as a result, the nonlinear transformation may do less well for rcm simulations having a larger bias in the wet-day frequency than the racmo simulations considered in this study. the bias in the autocorrelation (and the spatial correlation) of the simulated daily precipitation amounts may also restrict the use of this transformation. the flood quantiles simulated with the bias-corrected resampled rcm precipitation resemble those simulated with observed precipitation quite well. the next question is whether the presented approach can successfully be applied to the output of rcm scenario runs. this question will be addressed in a subsequent study.
A research scientist or specialist with training in climate change science can provide what?
scientific information and interact with resource management staff during the adaptation effort
A resource staff director or similar person with oversight of resource management can provide what?
provide management leadership, coordinate with scientific experts, and ensure communication with local managers involved in the adaptation effort
What kind of discussions among all participants ensure that activities are proceeding according to schedule?
frequent discussions
a research scientist or specialist with training in climate change science can provide scientific information and interact with resource management staff during the adaptation effort. a resource staff director or similar person with oversight of resource management can provide management leadership, coordinate with scientific experts, and ensure communication with local managers involved in the adaptation effort. frequent discussions among all participants ensure that activities are proceeding according to schedule. opportunities may also exist to include university scientists, nongovernmental organizations, and other stakeholders in the collaboration. in the olympic case study, forest service and national park service manag ers jointly requested that the case study focus on hydrology and roads, vegetation, wildlife, and fish. for each disciplinary topic (hydrology and roads, vegetation, etc.), a 1-day workshop explored the vulnerability of each resource to a changing
What could decreased Arctic sea ice contribute to?
the impacts of decreased arctic sea ice may also contribute to upper-level ridging and dry western u.s. winters (sewall 2005
What do local air temperature increases in western United States impact?
local air temperature increases in the western united states impact the timing and availability of snowmelt and amplify the demand for water during the summer and fall, exacerbating the impacts of water deficits associated with these droughts
Where did Favre and Gershunov say could experience more droughts?
if sst and ridging events like this become more common, california could experience more frequent droughts (favre and gershunov 2009
s15 september 2014 american meteorological society precipitation (fig. 4.1b). california precipitation is, however, sensitive to north pacific ssts (fig. 4.1a; gershunov and cayan 2003), and climate change models indicate substantial warming in this region (fig. 4.1d and f). in 2013/14, the north pacific ssts (fig. 4.1f) and the intensity of the upper troposphere geopotential height gradient (wang et al. 2014) reached historic maxima. these extremes appear very unlikely without anthropogenic climate change. if sst and ridging events like this become more common, california could experience more frequent droughts (favre and gershunov 2009). the impacts of decreased arctic sea ice may also contribute to upper-level ridging and dry western u.s. winters (sewall 2005). in addition, given the strong thermal control on evaporation, snowmelt, and water resources in california, the long-term warming is continuing to exert a growing stress on water availability (barnett et al. 2008), potentially amplified by both more frequent dry days and more precipitation extremes (polade et al. 2014). local air temperature increases in the western united states impact the timing and availability of snowmelt and amplify the demand for water during the summer and fall, exacerbating the impacts of water deficits associated with these droughts.
What are some weaknesses of other CBA studies similar to Stern's?
the strengths i have noted show an apparent awareness of a range of problems that are absent from similar studies, but rather than debating issues or taking heterodox ideas onboard they simply sideline critiques (as if they were of no import). the result is the same as if the issues were never raised, but more subtle in its muffling of voices. this " conspiracy of silence " by those with much of their human capital invested in supporting the orthodoxy is not new and is often associated with a second line of defence which is to exclude topics as " non-economic. 
What is the "conspiracy of silence" often associated with?
this " conspiracy of silence " by those with much of their human capital invested in supporting the orthodoxy is not new and is often associated with a second line of defence which is to exclude topics as " non-economic. 
Explain why et is economic heresy to ask if more consumption and production is necessary.
because such growth is the foundation of modern political economy, where the consumer is mythically sovereign, firms have no political power and governments hardly exist
stern raise the issues of inequity, ethics, treatment of future generations, uncertainty, and extreme and catastrophic events. in doing so past cba studies are shown to be conservative and biased. the brewing storm over the stern report is likely to be couched intechnical terms which conceal analysts' political and value judgements, or produce ad hominem responses, as directed at cline. this commentary has tried to expose the fundamental issues, which relate equally to stern and other professional experts on climate change cba. like those others, stern ignore the critical literature in ecological economics and prefer to cite a mainstream economic elite. the strengths i have noted show an apparent awareness of a range of problems that are absent from similar studies, but rather than debating issues or taking heterodox ideas onboard they simply sideline critiques (as if they were of no import). the result is the same as if the issues were never raised, but more subtle in its muffling of voices. this " conspiracy of silence " by those with much of their human capital invested in supporting the orthodoxy is not new and is often associated with a second line of defence which is to exclude topics as " non-economic. " to some extent the guard is dropped by stern on that second defence. however, the approach taken clearly allows traditional economic growth to be defended. the argument avoids the fundamental question of why more consumption and production is necessary. indeed to ask such a question is economic heresy because such growth is the foundation of modern political economy, where the consumer is mythically sovereign, firms have no political power and governments hardly exist. that this orthodox economic model might be failing and is impossible to sustain goes to the heart of ecological economics. modern economic growth has been locked-in to dependence upon fossil fuels and these are the historical source of the majority of ghg emissions. humanity is facing the transformation of the economy away from this dependence; that transformation will come whether humanity chooses to plan for it or not. a permanently smaller material economy has been positively advocated, by literature on steady-state economics, as something for which we should be planning. smaller by design, rather than smaller by disaster. several realisations are then relevant. a new economics is required in which human well-being is addressed as a multifaceted concept which involves a plurality of values. poverty in less industrially developed economies is not solved by supplying more luxuries to the already wealthy. traditional
What is a daunting challenge?
understanding how anthropogenic aerosols impact the earth's climate system is a daunting challenge
Why have major components of the required observing system been developed?
as evidence of the importance of aerosol impacts has accumulated, major components of the required observing system have been developed
What has recently been proposed in BAM?
a program for coordinating and integrating these observations, dubbed the paragon (see appendix a for acronym definitions) initiative, has recently been proposed in bams
onceptual framework. understanding how anthropogenic aerosols impact the earth's climate system is a daunting challenge. quantifying these impacts will require a multifaceted, global observing system and a capacity for integrating diverse data (seinfeld et al. 1996; heintzenberg et al. 1996; charlson 2001). over the past decades, as evidence of the importance of aerosol impacts has accumulated, major components of the required observing system have been developed. a program for coordinating and integrating these observations, dubbed the paragon (see appendix a for acronym definitions) initiative, has recently been proposed in bams (diner et al. 2004a). implementing this program will require advance planning and worldwide scientific cooperation. such coordination is critical if the opportunity that is afforded by new and enhanced satellite sensors (see "a-train contribution" section) is to be realized. in pursuit of these goals, we offer here an integration strategy for the specific problem of quantifying dcf by anthropogenic aerosols. we note that the quantification of "direct" forcing (i.e., the modification of radiative fluxes by aerosol particles themselves)
What situation the default 450 ppmv scenario illustrates?
the default 450 ppmv scenario illustrates a situation where techno-economic parameters are the main factors influencing political and business decisions in the electricity production sector
What does the situation illustrated by the default 450 ppmv assumes?
this situation assumes that society's perception of nuclear energy would be more positive in the future and/or that the remaining negative perception would not affect investment decisions in nuclear projects
What was done to illustrate a situation where society's opposition would affect nuclear investment decisions?
in order to illustrate a situation where society's opposition would affect nuclear investment decisions, we have modeled two additional scenarios with upper constraints on nuclear production with the 450 ppmv target: * minimum fission only: nuclear fission production is limited at its minimum level (i.e. using former lower bounds as upper bounds) and nuclear fusion is allowed to penetrate freely
the default 450 ppmv scenario illustrates a situation where techno-economic parameters are the main factors influencing political and business decisions in the electricity production sector. this situation assumes that society's perception of nuclear energy would be more positive in the future and/or that the remaining negative perception would not affect investment decisions in nuclear projects. in order to illustrate a situation where society's opposition would affect nuclear investment decisions, we have modeled two additional scenarios with upper constraints on nuclear production with the 450 ppmv target: * minimum fission only: nuclear fission production is limited at its minimum level (i.e. using former lower bounds as upper bounds) and nuclear fusion is allowed to penetrate freely. this scenario does not have a major impact on the electricity production sector since nuclear fission production does not increase in the 450 ppmv scenario compared les cahiers du gerad g-2007-29 15
Who led and funded the North-Watch project ?
the north-watch project led by d. tetzlaff (http://ww.abdn.ac.uk/northwatch/) is funded by the leverhulme trust 
How do they do the Data collection?
data used in this publication were obtained by many scientists over the years. although the use of these data has been agreed upon, this manuscript has not been reviewed by all of those responsible for the data collection
Who operates the  Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest  ?
the hubbard brook experimental forest is operated and maintained by the northern research station, u.s. department of agriculture, newtown square, pennsylvania
acknowledgments. the north-watch project led by d. tetzlaff (http://ww.abdn.ac.uk/northwatch/) is funded by the leverhulme trust (f/00 152/ag). the authors are grateful to those who contributed to gathering the data sets presented - without these long-term efforts this study would not have been possible. funding from for water and future forest to hl is also acknowledged. data used in this publication were obtained by many scientists over the years. although the use of these data has been agreed upon, this manuscript has not been reviewed by all of those responsible for the data collection. the hubbard brook experimental forest is operated and maintained by the northern research station, u.s. department of agriculture, newtown square, pennsylvania.
What can help to accomplish step 3?
the establishment of a special unit in the mayoral office may help to accomplish this important step
What is step 4?
fourth, in terms of the implementation of climate protection action plans two alternative approaches exist: first, a unit, which is in charge of climate change policy, can be established within each climate-relevant department
Describe step 3?
third, integrated climate change strategies and plans for specific sectors (energy, transport) constitute the next step towards the institutionalization of climate change policy at local level
third, integrated climate change strategies and plans for specific sectors (energy, transport) constitute the next step towards the institutionalization of climate change policy at local level. the establishment of a special unit in the mayoral office may help to accomplish this important step. fourth, in terms of the implementation of climate protection action plans two alternative approaches exist: first, a unit, which is in charge of climate change policy, can be established within each climate-relevant department. given the limited availability of staff, a second approach, which relies on a climate policy steering group, a climate protection coordination office or an overarching unit with appropriate competences for mainstreaming climate change
How are the pre-fire season conditions defined?
pre-fire season conditions are defined as conditions accrued before the fire through the climatological start date of fire season
What conditions are liberally defined as conditions accrued following this date of the fire year?
concurrent or in-season conditions are liberally defined as conditions accrued following this date of the fire year
How do we build upon prior studies?
we build upon prior studies by examining both water balance variables including eto, soil moisture and fire danger indices from the nfdrs and cffdrs
january 1-year before the fire year through october of the fire year and for temporal averages that include the previous 1-12 months table 1 ). monthly pdsi, and monthly averaged swe and soil moisture are considered over the same time span. antecedent, or pre-fire season conditions are defined as conditions accrued before the fire through the climatological start date of fire season for each region (i.e. day of year after which more than 2.5% of the historical large fires occurred), whereas concurrent or in-season conditions are liberally defined as conditions accrued following this date of the fire year. the strong temporal-autocorrelation of variables that integrate longer-lived moisture deficits (e.g. soil moisture, 1000-h fuel moisture, pdsi) limit an absolute separation between antecedent and in-season conditions; however, we consider relationships examined during the fire season as being in-season conditions, regardless of whether they incorporate atmospheric conditions before the start of fire season or the actual commencement of large fires during any particular year. we build upon prior studies by examining both water balance variables including eto, soil moisture and fire danger indices from the nfdrs and cffdrs. these biophysical variables are examined at twice-monthly time intervals ending on the 1st and
What is. Fish physiology?
fish physiology is inextricably linked to temperature, and fish have evolved to cope with specific hydrologic regimes and habitat niches
What are the general affects of climate change on freshwater systems?
the general effects of climate change on freshwater systems will likely be increased water temperatures, decreased dissolved oxygen levels, and the increased toxicity of pollutants
What will strengthen over time and become a more powerful stressor for fish?
as it strengthens over time, global climate change will become a more powerful stressor for fish living in natural or artificial systems
despite uncertainty in all levels of analysis, recent and long-term changes in our climate point to the distinct possibility that greenhouse gas emissions have altered mean annual temperatures, precipitation and weather patterns. modeling efforts that use doubled atmospheric co2 scenarios predict a 1-7 8 c mean global temperature increase, regional changes in precipitation patterns and storm tracks, and the possibility of ''surprises'' or sudden irreversible regime shifts. the general effects of climate change on freshwater systems will likely be increased water temperatures, decreased dissolved oxygen levels, and the increased toxicity of pollutants. in lotic systems, altered hydrologic regimes and increased groundwater temperatures could affect the quality of fish habitat. in lentic systems, eutrophication may be exacerbated or offset, and stratification will likely become more pronounced and stronger. this could alter food webs and change habitat availability and quality. fish physiology is inextricably linked to temperature, and fish have evolved to cope with specific hydrologic regimes and habitat niches. therefore, their physiology and life histories will be affected by alterations induced by climate change. fish communities may change as range shifts will likely occur on a species level, not a community level; this will add novel biotic pressures to aquatic communities. genetic change is also possible and is the only biological option for fish that are unable to migrate or acclimate. endemic species, species in fragmented habitats, or those in east-west oriented systems will be less able to follow changing thermal isolines over time. artisanal, commercial, and recreational fisheries worldwide depend upon freshwater fishes. impacted fisheries may make it difficult for developing countries to meet their food demand, and developed countries may experience economic losses. as it strengthens over time, global climate change will become a more powerful stressor for fish living in natural or artificial systems. furthermore, human response to climate change (e.g., increased water diversion) will exacerbate its alreadydetrimental effects. model predictions indicate that global climate change will continue even if greenhouse gas emissions decrease or cease. therefore, proactive management strategies such as removing other stressors from natural systems will be necessary to sustain our freshwater fisheries. keywords climate change  freshwater  fisheries  physiology  socioeconomic
What is the use of IPCC guidance?
using the 2006 ipcc guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories and country-specific activity data, we estimated that the emission of ch4 from global rice fields is 25.6 tg a 1, with a 95% certainty range of 14.8-41.7 tg a 1
Description CH4 Emission?
these results indicate that the emission of ch4 from rice paddies was overstated in most earlier atmospheric models, which allows for a new ch4 source or higher estimated ch4 emissions for other sources
Describe the amount of paddy submerged in water
 in addition, the amount of rice straw applied to fields and the total area of rice paddies that are continuously flooded were found to exert a strong effect on the figure 4. (continued
using the 2006 ipcc guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories and country-specific activity data, we estimated that the emission of ch4 from global rice fields is 25.6 tg a 1, with a 95% certainty range of 14.8-41.7 tg a 1. although the estimated emissions for individual countries do not always agree well with the national communications, the estimated global emissions are very close to the sum of the individual national communications. these results indicate that the emission of ch4 from rice paddies was overstated in most earlier atmospheric models, which allows for a new ch4 source or higher estimated ch4 emissions for other sources. in addition, the amount of rice straw applied to fields and the total area of rice paddies that are continuously flooded were found to exert a strong effect on the figure 4. (continued)
who served as an research meteorologist?
ropelewski served as a research meteorologist with the climate prediction center, u.s. national weather service of noaa
what does primary research interest includes?
his primary research interests include studies of the el nino southern oscillation and its influence on rainfall and temperature, the analysis and display of climate information, the influence of the land surface on atmospheric processes and the detection of global climate change
what does Ropelewski  leads to?
at the iri, ropelewski leads the iri effort to develop methods and data sets to improve monitoring of the climate system
before joining the iri, ropelewski served as a research meteorologist with the climate prediction center, u.s. national weather service of noaa. as chief of the center's analysis branch from 1990-97, he directed research and operational climate monitoring for over a dozen senior level climate research scientists. his primary research interests include studies of the el nino southern oscillation and its influence on rainfall and temperature, the analysis and display of climate information, the influence of the land surface on atmospheric processes and the detection of global climate change. at the iri, ropelewski leads the iri effort to develop methods and data sets to improve monitoring of the climate system.
What has become the most popular example of the alleged link between global climate change & conflict?
during the last few years, violent land-use conflict in the sahel has become the most popular example of the alleged link between global climate change and conflict. many politicians and international civil servants seem particularly attracted to this idea (benjaminsen, 2009
Is the idea that there's an alleged linkage between global climate change & conflict supported by many civil servants?
many politicians and international civil servants seem particularly attracted to this idea (benjaminsen, 2009
Does the UN have an opinion on this matter?
for instance, in an article in the washington post in 2007, un secretary-general ban ki-moon claimed that there is a connection between global warming and the darfur conflict (ban, 2007). the idea was also at the core of the decision to award the 2007 nobel peace prize to former us vice-president al gore and the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc
during the last few years, violent land-use conflict in the sahel has become the most popular example of the alleged link between global climate change and conflict. many politicians and international civil servants seem particularly attracted to this idea (benjaminsen, 2009). for instance, in an article in the washington post in 2007, un secretary-general ban ki-moon claimed that there is a connection between global warming and the darfur conflict (ban, 2007). the idea was also at the core of the decision to award the 2007 nobel peace prize to former us vice-president al gore and the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc). in the justification for the award, the chair of the nobel peace prize committee declared that 'global warming not only
What is the continuous variation of the influent characteristics (throughout the day) responsible for?
the continuous variation of the influent characteristics (throughout the day) is responsible for the predominance of the dynamic state in operation
Can the steady state assumption be accepted for designing or operational planning in long time horizons?
it can be said that, for designing or operational planning in long time horizons, the steady state assumption can be accepted
In the dynamic state,is the mass of solids produced equal to the mass wasted?
in the dynamic state, the mass of solids produced is not equal to the mass wasted
the mechanisms take place according to the steady state this hypothesis greatly simplifies the real situation that occurs in a wastewater treatment plant, in which the true steady state will practically never occur. the continuous variation of the influent characteristics (throughout the day) is responsible for the predominance of the dynamic state in operation, with mass accumulations occurring in the reactor and settling tank. however, if the system is analysed in a broad time scale, these variations become less important. thus, it can be said that, for designing or operational planning in long time horizons, the steady state assumption can be accepted. on the other hand, for the operation of a plant in a short time scale, the predominance of the dynamic state must be taken into consideration, and the above relations cannot be used as such. in the dynamic state, the mass of solids produced is not equal to the mass wasted, which alters the interpretation of the sludge age concept.
For the coast, an increase in sea level rise might be compensated by a what?
proportional growth of the yearly nourishment volume
An increase in rise from the present of ?
2 mm/year to between 3.5 and 10.5 mm/year until 2100
for the coast, an increase in sea level rise might be compensated by a proportional growth of the yearly nourishment volume. an increase in rise from the present 2 mm/year to between 3.5 and 10.5 mm/year until 2100 would require a sand volume of 25 to 74 mm3/year (i.e., between twoand sixfold of the present yearly amount). technically and financially this is regarded as feasible. nourishments have been politically and socially accepted, and sand resources in the north sea are abundant. spatial reservations for future sand mining purposes must be able to safeguard ample availability. optimization of both sand mining and nourishment must be able to meet ecological
What will be impacted in the text by climate change?
farmers and agribusiness
as the variability of climate increases, farmers and agribusiness will have to adapt to different patterns of rainfall and more extremes of rainfall and temperature than currently experienced. variability in climate can have important and dramatic impacts on the productivity of cropping systems (porter and gawith, 1999; wheeler et al., 2000). conceptually, we could see this as a challenge different from that of adapting to changes in mean climate conditions. to adapt to increased climate variability, those managing farms, forests and fisheries will have to adjust their risk-management strategies to try to maintain production and profits or, for some, to counter their losses or better exploit good years. deciding how to cost in what is effectively a probabilistic adaptation response is difficult, but nevertheless important. it is likely to take a form quite different from a simple linear enhancement of spending on adaptation. at a conceptual level, the cost associated with increased variability should be measured as the additional resources that society expends in avoiding the associated risk. in a practical sense this is perhaps relatively straightforward and may, for example, be a matter of measuring the incremental cost of fertiliser, irrigation and crop protection. conceptually the cost is determined by the size of the increase in variability and the attitude of the producer to risk. the issue is further complicated by the recognition that the costs are likely to spill over into sectors of the economy beyond the primary producers. intermediaries and final consumers are likely to adopt strategies designed to mitigate the impacts of risk on their profitability and welfare. the development of agriculture occurs against a moving background of changing demand for food and agricultural products, each with their own features specific to different locations, different rates of change and timescales of responses. mccarl (2007) provides a useful contrast of the magnitude of the costs of providing for an expanding population that is about 40 times greater than the cost of adapting to climate change. this suggests that adaptation/development costs within the sector will be dominated by changes driven not directly by climate. nonetheless, there are many intrinsic links between increases in productivity and resilience to climate that confuse this discrimination as a basis for costing. a clear and consistent conclusion from several decades of studies of the impacts of climate change on agriculture is the uneven distribution of positive and negative impacts in different parts of the world. the precise balance between positive and negative impacts depends on the type of agricultural business and the degree of climate change, but can roughly be summarised as positive impacts and opportunities for agriculture at the higher latitudes over the coming decades in contrast to more immediate negative impacts at lower latitudes. thus, a global cost of adaptation needs to account for changes in the balance of benefits or opportunities and negative impacts in different parts of the world and over a range of time projections - a complex situation. nevertheless, in the agricultural sector it is important to account for opportunities in some regions where production may potentially benefit from a moderate amount of climate change. here, farmers could exploit short-term opportunities for their businesses with some investments costs, but with little or no investment would miss these. although such investments are unlikely to be seen as adaptation to climate change, they could dominate spending in the short term in some regions. in addition, there is the potential for adaptation funds to be directed to developing countries within any global total. however, to date such adaptation funds have been comparatively small, for example, $150-300 million per year (world bank, 2008).
What parts is the coast receding?
the coastline is receding at rates of tens of meters per year in parts of siberia and alaska
What structural deposits?
structural type, in which methane gas flows in the subsurface
the siberian margin is one example of a place where methane hydrate is melting today, presumably at an accelerated rate in response to anthropogenic warming. this is a special case, where subsurface hydrates are exposed to the ocean by lateral erosion of coastline. the coastline is receding at rates of tens of meters per year in parts of siberia and alaska, but this is an ongoing process that began with the sea level 15 rise of the deglaciation (hubberten and romanovskii, 2001). the melting of hydrates in this region releases methane in an ongoing, chronic way, potentially increasing the steady-state methane concentration of the atmosphere, along with other ongoing anthropogenic methane fluxes. no mechanism has been proposed whereby a significant fraction of the siberian permafrost hydrates could release their methane catastrophi20 cally. 4.3 structural deposits the most vulnerable hydrate deposits in the ocean appear to be the structural type, in which methane gas flows in the subsurface, along faults or channels, perhaps to accumulate to high concentrations in domes or underneath impermeable sedimentary 25 layers. the structural deposits have two distinguishing characteristics that may a ff ect 1031
Where was Troeger reports on fieldwork undertaken?,
troeger reports on fieldwork undertaken with nyangatom, a small agropastoralist group in southwest ethiopia
Examples of this degradation include?
examples of this degradation include formerly cattlerich pastoralists
Why was Akunumnum and Ekomar falling out?
akunumnum and ekomar falling out of sync as a result of changes in the timing of seasonal indicators
troeger reports on fieldwork undertaken with nyangatom, a small agropastoralist group in southwest ethiopia, who report that their livelihoods are highly impacted by climate change and changing environmental patterns, namely failing belg rains and increasing temperature. people perceive this change as irreversible, naming such environmental indicators as disappearing plants and animals, and discuss having to rename their seasonal calendar. the social capital necessary for community resilience (captured in rules and regulations, 'ceremonies' of sharing and reciprocal support) is threatened as elements of social cohesion and identity fade away. examples of this degradation include formerly cattlerich pastoralists becoming poor, women becoming more dependent on their husbands, leather skirts as attributes of clan affiliation and family status being replaced by cotton skirts, and ceremonies such as akunumnum and ekomar falling out of sync as a result of changes in the timing of seasonal indicators.
What has led to the inconsistency of climate change knowledge throughout different regions of the world?
first, even from the gcms themselves, it is clear that present and future predictability of climate variability and climate change is not the same everywhere, and that gaps in knowledge of basic climatology are revealed by a lack of agreement between climate models in some regions (wilby, 2007
While there is now higher confidence in projected patterns of warming and sea-level rise, which projections have less confidence?
while there is now higher confidence in projected patterns of warming and sea-level rise, there is less confidence in projections of the numbers of tropical storms and of regional patterns of rainfall over large areas of africa, south asia and latin america
What are some examples of problems the medium-term time scale can lead to?
this is problematic, as the medium-term time scale is vital for political negotiation, for assessing vulnerability, and for agricultural planning, for example
all downscaling activity is affected by considerable uncertainties of different types. first, even from the gcms themselves, it is clear that present and future predictability of climate variability and climate change is not the same everywhere, and that gaps in knowledge of basic climatology are revealed by a lack of agreement between climate models in some regions (wilby, 2007). while there is now higher confidence in projected patterns of warming and sea-level rise, there is less confidence in projections of the numbers of tropical storms and of regional patterns of rainfall over large areas of africa, south asia and latin america. this highlights the importance of using different scenarios and different models to assess likely climate changes and their impacts. second, our understanding is limited of what the local-level impacts of climate change are likely to be, which means that it is very difficult to evaluate the adequacy of different downscaling techniques. third, there is a significant gap between the information that we currently have at seasonal time scales and the information we have at longer time scales information about what is likely over the next three to 20 years is largely missing (washington et al., 2006). this is problematic, as the medium-term time scale is vital for political negotiation, for assessing vulnerability, and for agricultural planning, for example.
What factor aside from temperature significantly affects sugarcane production across the production seasons?
precipitation, like temperature, also significantly and differently affected sugarcane production across the production seasons
Above what amount of precipitation is it most favorable to summer sugarcane production?
increasing summer precipitation more than 354 mm was found favorable to sugarcane production
In the winter production period, what level of precipitation is the breakeven point between net revenue increase and decrease per hectare?
increasing winter precipitation levels up to 94mm increases net revenue per hectare, whereas precipitation level beyond 94mm decreases net revenue
this study further showed that increasing harvesting temperature beyond 19 o c is optimal for sugarcane production, which coincides with the agronomic optimum harvesting temperature levels varying between 19 and 22 o c (figure 4). table 2 also shows that currently average values of winter and summer temperature are close to the critical damage points. this implies that both seasons are sensitive to marginal changes in temperature as the remaining range of tolerance to increased temperature levels is narrow, especially for winter season temperature, i.e. current levels are very close to critical damage points. the cumulative impact of increasing temperature marginally across all seasons should further be agronomically evaluated to give a better picture of the likely impact of climate change on south african sugarcane production. precipitation, like temperature, also significantly and differently affected sugarcane production across the production seasons. critical damage point analysis indicated that increasing winter precipitation levels up to 94mm increases net revenue per hectare, whereas precipitation level beyond 94mm decreases net revenue (figure 5). this negative relationship between increased precipitation beyond 94mm and net revenue could again be due to the possible outbreak of pests and insects, which are depressed under low precipitation but start reproducing under the conducive environment created by high precipitation. increasing summer precipitation more than 354 mm was found favorable to sugarcane production (figure 6).
From these observations, the presence of clays in outcrops and ejecta strongly supports which 3 conclusions?
1) the deposits in the crust (syrtis major, nili fossae) predate the volcanism of syrtis major, and possibly the formation of isidis basin itself; in mawrth vallis, clay deposits predate the noachian/early hesperian cratering; (2) the clays are a bulk component of the deposits rather than a surface coating or dust layer; (3) the diversity of the composition indicates that the alteration processes affected the variety of igneous rocks (mafic and al-rich silicates) constituting the martian crust
These conclusions on clay-rich outcrops are consistent with the idea that the dark clay-rich deposits are formed through which process?
note that these conclusions on clay-rich outcrops are consistent with the idea that the dark clay-rich deposits (discussed above) are formed through the erosion of ancient subsurface clay-rich layers
Fe-rich smectites such as nontronites are typical of the alteration of mafic material such as gabbros or basalts26, which are common on which planet?
in terms of bedrock origin, fe-rich smectites such as nontronites are typical of the alteration of mafic material such as gabbros or basalts26, which are common on mars
from these observations, the presence of clays in outcrops and ejecta strongly supports the following conclusions: (1) the deposits in the crust (syrtis major, nili fossae) predate the volcanism of syrtis major, and possibly the formation of isidis basin itself; in mawrth vallis, clay deposits predate the noachian/early hesperian cratering; (2) the clays are a bulk component of the deposits rather than a surface coating or dust layer; (3) the diversity of the composition indicates that the alteration processes affected the variety of igneous rocks (mafic and al-rich silicates) constituting the martian crust. note that these conclusions on clay-rich outcrops are consistent with the idea that the dark clay-rich deposits (discussed above) are formed through the erosion of ancient subsurface clay-rich layers. the formation of clays is controlled by bedrock composition and topography, climate-derived parameters (temperature and longterm availability of liquid water, at or below the surface), availability of water, time and kinetics of mineral reactions25. in terms of bedrock origin, fe-rich smectites such as nontronites are typical of the alteration of mafic material such as gabbros or basalts26, which are common on mars. the al-rich phyllosilicate could either indicate a higher alteration27or originate from the alteration of more acidic crustal rocks containing al-rich minerals such as orthoclase26. in terms of surface temperature and long-term availability of water, the formation of clays, and specifically of smectites, requires conditions very different from those currently observed for mars28. for clay formation on the earth, smectites dominate in the areas of moderate alteration of the temperate regions29, rocks of tropical zones are mainly weathered to kaolinite and hydroxides, and rocks of arid regions 200 mmyr2 1precipitation) or polar regions alter to poorly
What is it that may decrease in at least the North Atlantic Ocean?
the thermohaline circulation
What is the timing of reproduction of many species related to most often?
related to that of their prey
What needs to be studied in the future along with the mechanisms that the climate affects the structure and function of marine ecosystems?
the interaction between fishing and climate
some common gaps in our knowledge of the barents and the norwegian seas that need to be addressed include improved understanding of the processes determining the variability in the ocean circulation, positions of oceanic fronts, species sensitivity to climate change, match/mismatch between predators and prey, indirect and non-linear effect on biological processes, and competition when/if new species are introduced into the ecosystem. the thermohaline circulation, on the scale of at least the north atlantic ocean, may decrease as a consequence of climate change, which might alter the atlantic inflow to the nordic seas. this would impact the transport of zooplankton from the norwegian sea to the barents sea and alter the positions of ocean fronts between the major water masses. such fronts act as barriers to many marine organisms and are important feeding areas for higher trophic organisms. the timing of reproduction for many species is related to that of their prey. how timing and location of production and spawning of most species might alter in response to climate change remains unclear, e.g., cod spawning in relation to the presence of c. finmarchicus or the effects of changes in hatching time of herring larvae on the survival of young puffins. further, many arctic species have relatively narrow habitat and niche requirements. their likely response to a possible increase in competition from more opportunistic species in a warmer arctic is unclear. one question is what may happen to the barents sea if mackerel and blue whiting become more common inhabitants--how will this influence other species such as herring, capelin and cod? during the past half century, heavy fishing has made it more difficult to attribute changes in fish to climate. while many wish to partition changes to fishing or climate, the two interact and their effects cannot often be separated. for example, ottersen et al. (2006) found that the age at maturity of cod has decreased over the past several decades from +13 years to 8-10 years. the authors have attributed an increase in the correlation between temperature and recruitment over this time period to an increased sensitivity to climate caused by fishing. thus, future studies need to focus not only on the mechanisms through which climate affects the structure and function of marine ecosystems but also the interaction between fishing and climate. only by doing this will we be in a position to adequately tackle the problem of the response of the ecosystem to future climate change. acknowledgements this paper was first presented at the globec essas symposium on climate variability and subarctic marine ecosystems in may 2005, which was hosted by pices in victoria, bc. we would like to thank two anonymous reviewers for constructive comments on an earlier version of the paper. thanks also to k. gjertsen for technical help with some of the figures. this work was undertaken under the nessas project funded by the research council of norway. this work also has relevance to the eu-funded project damocles. references
LULCC Describe the change in the impact of?
the change in the impact of lulcc on surface air temperature due to increased co2. the ratio of the absolute change in surface air temperature due to lulcc at 1 x co2 to the absolute change at 2 x co2 for mam (upper panels) and jja (lower panels) is shown
Tell me the average used areas in the picture?
three regions are shown: eurasia, asia and the eastern united states. the inlay boxes show the regions used for averaging in fig
What is zero value?
 a zero value is where the changes are identical and - 0 5 is where the change at 2 x co2 is double the impact at 1 x co2 (negative values occur owing to the subtraction of one from the ratio to centre 'no change' on zero). only points that are statistically significant at a 99% confidence level are shown
the change in the impact of lulcc on surface air temperature due to increased co2. the ratio of the absolute change in surface air temperature due to lulcc at 1 x co2 to the absolute change at 2 x co2 for mam (upper panels) and jja (lower panels) is shown. three regions are shown: eurasia, asia and the eastern united states. the inlay boxes show the regions used for averaging in fig. 2. a zero value is where the changes are identical and - 0 5 is where the change at 2 x co2 is double the impact at 1 x co2 (negative values occur owing to the subtraction of one from the ratio to centre 'no change' on zero). only points that are statistically significant at a 99% confidence level are shown.
What is an essential component of any atmospheric chemical model?
the accurate calculation of photolysis (j) rates is an essential component of any atmospheric chemical model
What need to use the code actually employed in the CCM?
modelling groups need to use the code actually employed in the ccm
Why is it not useful to plot and compare cross-sections?
it is not useful to plot and compare cross-sections since each model has their own algorithm for number of wavelength bins, the method of averaging the cross-sections with solar fl ux, and how to include temperature dependencies
the accurate calculation of photolysis (j) rates is an essential component of any atmospheric chemical model. however, this calculation is complex and there are likely many causes for the differences between models. models may differ in their treatment of radiative transfer, aerosols and clouds. models may update the photolysis rates at a different time resolution. although all ccm photolysis modules use standard absorption cross-sections e.g. sander et al. 2006, hereafter jpl-2006), they likely differ in how they are implemented in terms of wavelength integration or temperature dependence. for these reasons it is important to compare photolysis rates calculated by ccms using a standard set of prescribed conditions e.g. o<s314>3, temperature, and pressure pro fi les). modelling groups need to use the code actually employed in the ccm for this comparison, which is based only on the fi nal j-values - the quantity actually relevant for the chemical comparisons - and not on the separate components of the calculation. for example, it is not useful to plot and compare cross-sections since each model has their own algorithm for number of wavelength bins, the method of averaging the cross-sections with solar fl ux, and how to include temperature dependencies.
What can we question?
on a more positive note, while we can question some of the review 's modeling and economic assumptions, it makes an important contribution in selecting climatechange policies with an eye to balancing economic priorities with environmental dangers
How is the discussion summarized by the Review?
the review summarizes its discussion here as follows, "creating a transparent and comparable carbon price signal around the world is an urgent challenge for international collective action" (p. 530
This section reviews what?
this section reviews some of the core issues, while the next section provides an empirical application of alternative approaches. 3.1 alternative discount concepts debates about discounting have a long history in economics and public policy
on a more positive note, while we can question some of the review 's modeling and economic assumptions, it makes an important contribution in selecting climatechange policies with an eye to balancing economic priorities with environmental dangers. by linking climate-change policies to both economic and environmental objectives, in principle if not in practice, the review has corrected one of the fundamental flaws of the kyoto protocol, which had no such linkage. by contrast, the parallel analysis of the bush administration, cited in footnote 2 above, provided no support for the bush administration's rejection of binding emissions constraints on greenhouse gas emissions. the next comment concerns the review 's emphasis on the need for increasing the price of carbon emissions. the review summarizes its discussion here as follows, "creating a transparent and comparable carbon price signal around the world is an urgent challenge for international collective action" (p. 530). in plain english, it is critical to have a harmonized carbon tax or the equivalent both to provide incentives to individual firms and households and to stimulate research and development in low-carbon technologies. carbon prices must be raised to transmit the social costs of greenhouse gas emissions to the everyday decisions of billions of firms and people. this simple economic insight is virtually absent from most political discussions of climate change policy (including the presentation by al gore in an inconvenient truth ). but these points are not the nub of the matter. rather, the review 's radical view of policy stems from an extreme assumption about discounting. discounting is a factor in climate-change policy--indeed in all investment decisions--that involves the relative weight of future and present payoffs. at first blush, this area would seem a technicality. unfortunately, it cannot be buried in a footnote, for discounting is the central to the radical revision the review proposes ethical assumptions that produce very low discount rates. combined with other assumptions, this magnifies impacts in the distant future and rationalizes deep cuts in emissions, and indeed in all consumption, today. if we substitute more conventional discount rates used in other global-warming analyses, by governments, by consumers, or by businesses, the review 's dramatic results disappear, and we come back to the climate-policy ramp described above. the balance of this discussion focuses on this central issue. 3. discounting in growth and climate change questions of discounting are central to understanding economic growth theory and policy. they also lie at the heart of the review 's radical view of the grave damages from climate change and the need for immediate steps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions sharply. this section reviews some of the core issues, while the next section provides an empirical application of alternative approaches. 3.1 alternative discount concepts debates about discounting have a long history in economics and public policy. discounting involves two related and often confused concepts. one is the idea of a discount rate on goods, which is a positive concept that measures the relative price of goods at different points of time. this is also called the real return on capital, the real interest rate, the opportunity cost of capital, and the real return. the real return measures the yield on investments corrected by the change in the overall price level. in principle, this is observable in the marketplace. for example, the real return on twenty-year u.s. treasury securities in spring 2007 was 2.4 percent per year. similarly, the real pretax return on u.s. corporate capital over the last four decades has averaged about 6.6 percent per year. estimated real returns on human capital range from 6 percent per year
What was planned by the Ventura United School District?
ventura unified school district, california planning is essential to creating safe schools and it is required by the federal no child left behind legislation (u.s. department of education, 2004) and implemented via district local education action plans
What are the implementation of these plans?
the implementation of these plans involves continuous monitoring and reevaluation of information pertinent to each campus
What are the plans facilitated by this process?
as such, this process is facilitated by the availability of measures that are simple to administer, inexpensive, and whose psychometric properties have been evaluated
ventura unified school district, california planning is essential to creating safe schools and it is required by the federal no child left behind legislation (u.s. department of education, 2004) and implemented via district local education action plans. the implementation of these plans involves continuous monitoring and reevaluation of information pertinent to each campus. as such, this process is facilitated by the availability of measures that are simple to administer, inexpensive, and whose psychometric properties have been evaluated. the california school climate and safety survey (cscss), originally developed by m.j. furlong, r. morrison, and s. boles (1991), was specifically developed for these purposes. the cscss is a student self-report questionnaire created to measure general school climate and personal safety-related experiences. in this article, we present the results of an evaluation of the cscss including exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses. these analyses reduced the original cscss research version from 102 items to 54 items. the psychometric properties of this cscss-sf (short form) are presented. (c) 2005 wiley periodicals, inc.
Why is a rigorous evaluation of climate policies is challenging?
because it requires rethinking the welfare economics of risk, time, and population
What is the discount rate useful for?
to evaluate small transfers of consumptions across individuals living at different times
Why the discount  rate is not the all purpose tool that can serve for all evaluations?
it is not adapted to large scale changes, and it is also not adapted to evaluating policies that change the size of the population or the probabilities of different scenarios
let us briefly wrap up the argument of this paper. the discount rate only serves to measure the relative social priority of different individuals belonging to different generations. therefore there is no need to worry about comparing the discount rate to the market interest rate, as a rational evaluation in terms of present value at the chosen discount rate will never fail to avoid dominated investments, and never fail to choose those with the greatest rate of return. the key message of this paper is that discount rates are really to be computed between individuals (person-to-person), which gives a great role to inequalities within and between generations. in the very long run, weitzman's observation that the worst-case scenario drives the discount rate has to be supplemented by the fact the situation of the worst off at both ends of the investment will also drive the value of the discount rate. therefore, if climate policies such as mitigation efforts are paid by the affluent populations of the present generations and greatly benefit the worst off of the distant future generations in the most catastrophic scenarios, it is very likely that the correct discount rates for the evaluation of such policies should be negative, which means that a dollar of benefit in the distant future is worth more than a dollar of effort today. in conclusion, we would like to recall that a rigorous evaluation of climate policies is particularly challenging because it requires rethinking the welfare economics of risk, time, and population. in such endeavor the utilitarian criterion, which remains prominent in the debates about discounting, should be questioned and, perhaps, replaced with other criteria that better combine a certain respect for the risk preferences of the population and a substantial degree of aversion to inequality. finally, we should recall a point that has been made already by stern (2007). the discount rate is useful to evaluate small transfers of consumptions across individuals living at different times. it is not the all-purpose tool that can serve for all evaluations. it is not adapted to large scale changes, and it is also not adapted to evaluating policies that change the size of the population or the probabilities of different scenarios. for such policies one has to go back to the underlying social welfare criteria. this is an additional reason to pay attention to the selection of such criteria on sound ethical principles.
What public controversy involving the University of East Anglia contributed to the wax and wane of belief in the reality of climate change?
the illegal retrieval and publication of personal emails from the university of east anglia
What public controversy involving the report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change contributed to the wax and wane of belief in the reality of climate change?
discoveries of mistakes in the 2007 report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change
In general, how much of the population in surveyed developed countries 'believe' in climate change science?
generally more than half the population in surveyed developed countries 'believe' in the science
belief in the reality of climate change is waxing and waning, depending on concurrent events such as particularly cold winters and other weather extremes, or nonclimatic events like terrorist threats, economic recessions, or major public controversies like that following the illegal retrieval and publication of personal emails from the university of east anglia or discoveries of mistakes in the 2007 report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change.24,27,28still, generally more than half the population in surveyed developed countries 'believe' in the science.27-30at the same time, perceptions of the prevailing level of consensus among scientists vary considerably from year to year, but generally have not fundamentally changed since surveys started asking questions about it more than 20 years ago.23,31
What was explained by William Stanley Jevons, in The Coal Question?
william stanley jevons, in the coal question explained that improved efficiency in the use of coal made coal more cost effective as an energy source and therefore more desirable to consumers
What was Jevons pointed
jevons pointed to an observed relationship between efficiency and total consumption, but he did not explain why this was the case
What Dowd explained?
dowd explains how capitalist production for the accumulation of capital, rather than production to meet social needs and the demands of environmental sustainability, generates enormous waste throughout its operations
william stanley jevons, in the coal question explained that improved efficiency in the use of coal made coal more cost effective as an energy source and therefore more desirable to consumers. thus, he argued, greater efficiency in resource use often leads to increased consumption of resources.104this relationship has become known as the jevons paradox.105jevons pointed to an observed relationship between efficiency and total consumption, but he did not explain why this was the case. he needed to connect this fact - that rising efficiency is associated with rising consumption, at least in the case of coal - with the drive for the accumulation of capital, which entails the continued material consumption of transformed nature to fuel its operations. dowd explains how capitalist production for the accumulation of capital, rather than production to meet social needs and the demands of environmental sustainability, generates enormous waste throughout its operations. given capital's "need for substantial economic expansion," it produces ever-greater amounts of waste, in concentrations that threaten the ecosystem.106empirical research and other analyses support the contention that economic growth and expansion typically outstrip gains made in efficiency.107
Which organizations participated in the "From Trade to Climate" Caravan conducted prior to the Copenhagen mobilisations?
krishok federation (a member of lvc), the asia peasants coalition, the south asia peasants coalition, the people's coalition on food sovereignty
What is one thing a convergence event like Copenhagen did?
it allowed links of solidarity to be strengthened
How many civil society organisations signed  the Klimaforum Declaration?
this declaration was signed by 466 civil society organisations
krishok federation (a member of lvc), the asia peasants coalition, the south asia peasants coalition, the people's coalition on food sovereignty, all participated in the "from trade to climate" caravan conducted prior to the copenhagen mobilisations. secondly, such solidarities are manifested in the range of networks that have emerged in the past few years that share the broad demands of climate justice articulated in copenhagen including cja; cjn!; the pan african climate justice alliance as well as networks in the amazon and niger delta. thirdly, such solidarities are also expressed during the articulated moments of climate justice antagonism, such as the mobilisations in copenhagen, when a range of political actors--movements, ngos, networks, autonomous groups--converge. the importance of such solidarities to political strategies around climate justice and activism cannot be underestimated. this is because there have been important debates over how practices of localisation are to be envisioned as responses to climate change. localisation is a contested process that can result in more inwardfacing, parochial and isolationist responses as well as outward-facing, expansive and solidaristic responses, with shades of grey in between (north 2010). these different responses are structured by varying understandings of institutions and relations of power that shape practices of localisation (trapese 2008). what we are interested in here is more politically productive approaches to localisation which oppose dominant responses to climate change and practice solidaristic alternatives which develop a broader critique of the forces at play shaping localities. these strategies do not produce localisation in bounded or isolationist ways. rather, they envision localisation as part of strategies to "trans-localise".12this opens up the possibility of political alternatives that are about engagements in particular sites, often through what could be termed militant particularisms, but where the politics of such strategies are envisioned or generated as part of translocal political networks. "climate justice solidarities" (routledge 2011), refer to how shared "maps of grievance" are constructed which link different activists involved in struggles over climate change (featherstone, forthcoming). they bring together geographically, culturally, economically and politically different and distant peoples and enable connections and alliances to be drawn that extend beyond the local and particular (olesen 2005). such solidarities can shape the terms of debate of climate justice politics in significant ways. if a convergence event like copenhagen did one thing, it allowed links of solidarity to be strengthened. the kilimaforum, for example, forged connections and bonds of trust between activists that are the prelude to the building of solidarities around the issue of climate justice: not least through the articulation of the common ground exemplified by the klimaforum declaration discussed at the beginning of this paper. this declaration was signed by 466 civil society organisations (predominantly ngos), and articulated a series of series of principles around which different campaigns concerned with issues of climate justice, representing a diversity of political perspectives, located in different local and national realities, could forge common ground as the basis for translocal solidarity and cooperation. the copenhagen mobilisations built upon connections forged during the alterglobalisation mobilisations, to develop new forms of solidarity, as activists from different countries and continents shared concerns, tactics and ideas for tackling
What is the constant temperature range?
the fundamental thermal reaction norm. larvae were reared at constant temperatures, ranging from 16 to 36 deg c, with 2 deg c increments
What should be need for development and survival?
he fundamental thermal reaction norm. larvae were reared at constant temperatures, ranging from 16 to 36 deg c, with 2 deg c increments, to obtain the fundamental thermal reaction norms (and a measure of the optimum, to, and the critical maximum temperature, ctmax) for development and survival
How temperature range was selected?
this temperature range was selected on the basis of pilot data and those published for an. gambiae (bayoh lindsay, 2003). note that critical minimum (ctmin) and maximum (ctmax) temperatures are commonly derived from experiments whereby temperature is slowly decreased or increased, and some kind of short-term physiological or behavioral response is recorded (e.g., ability of an insect to right itself
the fundamental thermal reaction norm. larvae were reared at constant temperatures, ranging from 16 to 36 deg c, with 2 deg c increments, to obtain the fundamental thermal reaction norms (and a measure of the optimum, to, and the critical maximum temperature, ctmax) for development and survival. this temperature range was selected on the basis of pilot data and those published for an. gambiae (bayoh lindsay, 2003). note that critical minimum (ctmin) and maximum (ctmax) temperatures are commonly derived from experiments whereby temperature is slowly decreased or increased, and some kind of short-term physiological or behavioral response is recorded (e.g., ability of an insect to right itself). in our experiments, we define ctmin and ctmax more ecologically as those temperatures at which mosquito survival through to adulthood is zero (which could still mean larvae surviving for many days but failing to emerge from pupae). this measure is not equivalent to the traditional upper or low lethal temperatures, which again tend to be defined based on mortality following single short-term exposures to temperature extremes (piyaphongkul et al. 2012; ribeiro et al. 2012).
What has the IPCC concluded?
the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) has since concluded with high confidence that "developing countries will be more vulnerable to climate change than developed countries" ipcc 2001 a p. 916
What are signatories of the UNFCCC committed to doing?
signatories of the united nations framework convention on climate change (unfccc) have committed themselves to addressing the "specific needs and special circumstances of developing country parties, especially those that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change" (article 3; http://unfccc.int 
What has the Third Assessment Report concluded?
the third assessment report, however, also concludes with high confidence that "current knowledge of adaptation and adaptive capacity is insufficient for reliable prediction of adaptations (pg. 880)" because "the capacity to adapt varies considerably among regions, countries and socioeconomic groups and will vary over time (pg. 879
signatories of the united nations framework convention on climate change (unfccc) have committed themselves to addressing the "specific needs and special circumstances of developing country parties, especially those that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change" (article 3; http://unfccc.int ). the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) has since concluded with high confidence that "developing countries will be more vulnerable to climate change than developed countries" ipcc 2001 a p. 916). the third assessment report, however, also concludes with high confidence that "current knowledge of adaptation and adaptive capacity is insufficient for reliable prediction of adaptations (pg. 880)" because "the capacity to adapt varies considerably among regions, countries and socioeconomic groups and will vary over time (pg. 879)". here we respond to the apparent contradiction in these statements by exploring how variation in adaptive capacity and climate impacts combine to influence the global distribution of vulnerability. in section 2 we describe our simple indexing method and the means employed to display exposure to climate change. our results are then presented in section 3 we understand that our results perhaps generate more questions than answers. some of these questions are presented in the discussion of section 4
Which nation's ecology is the study focused on?
from various parts of canada (fig. 3
What are some examples of algae species present in the lakes across the Northern Hemisphere?
specifically, abrupt increases in planktonic cyclotella species and concomitant decreases in heavily silicified aulacoseira and/or small, benthic fragilaria species are evident in regions where pronounced warming has been recorded
What phenomenon is associated with increases in Cyclotella?
evident in regions where pronounced warming has been recorded (e.g. chapman walsh, 1993
the compilation of detailed diatom biostratigraphies throughout the northern hemisphere (fig. 1), supplemented with regional paleolimnological (i.e. 'topbottom') studies from various parts of canada (fig. 3), shows a strikingly coherent, yet geographically asynchronous large-scale pattern of ecological change. these data indicate that extensive reorganizations of algal community structure are evident in lakes across the northern hemisphere since the mid-19th century. specifically, abrupt increases in planktonic cyclotella species and concomitant decreases in heavily silicified aulacoseira and/or small, benthic fragilaria species are evident in regions where pronounced warming has been recorded (e.g. chapman walsh, 1993). the onset of the shift to higher relative abundances of cyclotella taxa in arctic lakes occurred significantly p o 0.05) earlier (ca. ad 1870) than in lakes from temperate latitudes (ca. 1970) (fig. 2c). the higher variability in the timing of this shift among high latitude lakes may be explained by the generally lower temporal resolution of arctic sediment cores, and differences in the relative sensitivity of subarctic and high arctic lakes, both of which were grouped together in this category. high altitude lakes, regardless of latitude (arctic-subarctic-temperate), were intermediate in terms of the timing of this species change (ca. ad 1920). despite the larger number of diatom profiles collected from temperate lakes than from high latitude/ high altitude lakes for this meta-analysis, and large differences in lake characteristics across the temperate northern hemisphere, there was remarkable consistency in the timing of cyclotella increases recorded in the biostratigraphic profiles from temperate lakes (i.e. low variance) with 75% of these studies recording this shift post-1940.
How useful is this range of socio-economic scenarios?
the latter, by characterising aspects of vulnerability, can often be of key importance in determining the potential impacts of climate change (fig. 5 looking along a row
How can climate policy assumptions affect socio-economic conditions?
3.1.3 using the framework for comprehensive assessments of climate policy clearly, climate policy assumptions will affect some ssp elements. for instance, when looking at the effects of mitigation down a column (fig. 5 ), several elements of the socio-economic assumptions will depart from the reference ssp (such as the characteristics of the energy system). similarly, the effect of adaptation policies would adjust socio-economic conditions to ameliorate impacts. this is not portrayed directly in a figure, because the effects would often not alter the fundamental storyline of the ssp enough to move to another ssp
How to demonstrate that the assumptions of the mitigation and adaptation policy (SAP) facilitate the coherent assessment of the costs of mitigation, adaptation and residual climate damage?
a comprehensive analysis covering all cells, would show how policy assumptions for mitigation and adaptation (spas) lead to changes in ssp elements, facilitating the calculation of adaptation costs, mitigation costs, and residual damages across the matrix. the scenario matrix architecture therefore facilitates the consistent evaluation of the costs of mitigation, adaptation, and residual climate damages
(rcp) across a range of socio-economic scenarios. the latter, by characterising aspects of vulnerability, can often be of key importance in determining the potential impacts of climate change (fig. 5 looking along a row). 3.1.3 using the framework for comprehensive assessments of climate policy clearly, climate policy assumptions will affect some ssp elements. for instance, when looking at the effects of mitigation down a column (fig. 5 ), several elements of the socio-economic assumptions will depart from the reference ssp (such as the characteristics of the energy system). similarly, the effect of adaptation policies would adjust socio-economic conditions to ameliorate impacts. this is not portrayed directly in a figure, because the effects would often not alter the fundamental storyline of the ssp enough to move to another ssp. a comprehensive analysis covering all cells, would show how policy assumptions for mitigation and adaptation (spas) lead to changes in ssp elements, facilitating the calculation of adaptation costs, mitigation costs, and residual damages across the matrix. the scenario matrix architecture therefore facilitates the consistent evaluation of the costs of mitigation, adaptation, and residual climate damages. climate policy assumptions play a
According to the passage, what does the current architecture aim to provide?
the current architecture, in contrast, aims to provide a comprehensive description of the scenario space for future climate policy
According to the passage, is the architecture easily communicated in the context of previous global scenarios?
the architecture can be difficult to communicate previous global scenarios often simplified the scenario space by focusing on a specific topic (e.g. development of emissions in the absence of climate policy such as sres) or by assuming relationships among key variables (e.g. in scenarios developed for the millennium ecosystem assessment (mea, 2005 
the architecture can be difficult to communicate previous global scenarios often simplified the scenario space by focusing on a specific topic (e.g. development of emissions in the absence of climate policy such as sres) or by assuming relationships among key variables (e.g. in scenarios developed for the millennium ecosystem assessment (mea, 2005 )). this framing promoted the identification of only a handful of ' marker ' scenarios. the current architecture, in contrast, aims to provide a comprehensive description of the scenario space for future climate policy. without further selection, this also leads to a more complex framework that might not always be easy to communicate. experience, however, has shown that the difficulties in communication can be reduced by a clear explanation of underlying elements.
Would you say that climate change and its impacts are inevitable in Canada?
even after introducing significant measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, some additional degree of climate change is inevitable and would have economic, social and environmental impacts on canada and canadian communities
Is adaptation an alternative to reducing green house gas emissions?
adaptation is not an alternative to reducing greenhouse gas emissions in addressing climate change, but rather a necessary complement
Which three factors determine vulnerability to climate change?
vulnerability is determined by three factors: the nature of climate change, the climatic sensitivity of the system or region being considered, and our capacity to adapt to the resulting changes
there is strong consensus in the international scientific community that climate change is occurring and that the impacts are already being felt in some regions. it is also widely accepted that, even after introducing significant measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, some additional degree of climate change is inevitable and would have economic, social and environmental impacts on canada and canadian communities. although impacts would vary on a regional basis, all areas of the country and virtually every economic sector would be affected. to reduce the negative impacts of climate change and take advantage of new opportunities, canadians will adapt. adaptation is not an alternative to reducing greenhouse gas emissions in addressing climate change, but rather a necessary complement. reducing greenhouse gas emissions decreases both the rate and overall magnitude of climate change, which increases the likelihood of successful adaptation and decreases associated costs. adaptation is not a new concept: canadians have already developed a range of approaches that have allowed us to deal effectively with our extremely variable climate. nevertheless, the nature of future climate change, as well as its rate, would pose some new challenges. developing an effective strategy for adaptation requires an understanding of our vulnerability to climate change. vulnerability is determined by three factors: the nature of climate change, the climatic sensitivity of the system or region being considered, and our capacity to adapt to the resulting changes. the tremendous geographic, ecological and economic diversity of canada means that these factors, and hence vulnerabilities, vary significantly across the country. in many cases, adaptation will involve enhancing the resiliency and adaptive capacity of a system to increase its ability to deal with stress. the report climate change impacts and adaptation: a canadian perspective provides an overview of research in the field of climate change impacts and adaptation over the past five years, as it relates to canada. this summary presents common themes of the report, as well as highlights from individual chapters.
In which country is located the Department of Ecology and Evolution?
sweden
In which country is located the University of Juiz de Fora?
brazil
In which country is located the University of Siena?
italy
department of ecology and evolution, uppsala university, uppsala, sweden b department of ecology, evolution, and organismal biology, iowa state university, ames, iowa c department of ecology, evolution and behavior, university of minnesota, st. paul, minnesota d university of siena, siena, italy e u.s. geological survey, denver, colorado f daiichi university, fukuoka, japan g department of chemistry, trent university, peterborough, ontario, canada h department of biology, university of regina, regina, saskatchewan, canada i university of north carolina at chapel hill, chapel hill, north carolina j department of zoology, miami university, oxford, ohio k finnish environment institute, helsinki, finland l estonian marine institute, tallinn, estonia m university of oslo, oslo, norway n inrs-ete, universite' du que'bec, que'bec, que'bec, canada o institute of marine science, university of north carolina, morehead city, north carolina p virginia commonwealth university, richmond, virginia q instaar, university of colorado, boulder, colorado r university of california at santa barbara, santa barbara, california s department of biological sciences, university of the sciences in philadelphia, philadelphia, pennsylvania t de'partement des sciences biologiques, universite' du que'bec a` montre'al, montre'al, que'bec, canada u geography department, miami university, oxford, ohio v university of juiz de fora, juiz de fora, mg, brazil w csiro land and water, canberra, australia x department of biological sciences, university of alberta, edmonton, alberta, canada y eawag/eth zurich, zurich, switzerland z hydro-que'bec, montre'al, que'bec, canada aanioo-centre for limnology, nieuwersluis, the netherlands
What resources did California Valley Study uses to get their information?
california central valley study, which used climate projection and sea-level rise information to guide water supply assumptions in a biological assessment on multiple fish species in the california central valley (bureau of reclamation, 2008
Where Federal and state agencies used in getting more information for the climate changes?
federal and state agencies exploring the use of expanded climate information sets to support various water resources planning efforts. in this context, an expanded set is defined to include instrumental record information plus any mix of the follo
Where can you find the process and purposes of each study and how climate information was related to planning assumptions?
this appendix discusses the process and purposes of each study and how climate information was related to planning assumptions
as discussed in chapter 3, there have been several recent examples of reclamation, usace, and other federal and state agencies exploring the use of expanded climate information sets to support various water resources planning efforts. in this context, an expanded set is defined to include instrumental record information plus any mix of the following: (1) synthetic hydrologic sequences developed through stochastic modeling, (2) additional reference climate and sequence indicated by paleoclimate evidence, and (3) projected climate information consistent with future scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions (intergovernmental panel on climate change, 2007). three examples were mentioned in chapter 3, where the focus was on evaluating proposed or expected long-term plans of operation: lake ontario-st lawrence river study, which used climate projection information and stochastic modeling to guide hydrologic variability assumptions in water control planning for the lake ontario-st. lawrence river system (international joint commission, 2006). colorado river basin study, which used nonparametric stochastic modeling with paleoclimate information to guide water supply variability assumptions in operations planning for the colorado river storage system (bureau of reclamation, 2007). california central valley study, which used climate projection and sea-level rise information to guide water supply assumptions in a biological assessment on multiple fish species in the california central valley (bureau of reclamation, 2008). this appendix discusses the process and purposes of each study and how climate information was related to planning assumptions.
When is human mortality highest in US cities?
on extremely hot, humid summer days
Are human mortality rates higher in summer or winter?
in general, winter-mortality rates are significantly higher than summer rates
Is climate change affecting the rate of deaths in the US?
climate change will have little impact in defining future mortality patterns in us cities
human mortality in us cities is highest on extremely hot, humid summer days, but in general, winter-mortality rates are significantly higher than summer rates. the observed winterdominant warming pattern, which has been linked to increasing greenhouse-gas concentrations, has led some researchers to propose future mortality decreases, while others contend that increasing heat-related mortality in summer will more than offset any winter-mortality reductions. because winter mortality is only weakly linked to daily weather, we examine the seasonality of mortality using monthly data for 28 major us cities from 1964 to 1998. daily all-causes mortality counts are agestandardized, aggregated monthly, and related to mean monthly 07:00 h local standard time (lst) air temperature in each city. the climate-mortality seasonality patterns are examined for spatial and temporal (decadal-scale) variability, and the impact of climate change on mortality rates is investigated after an approximation of the inherent technology/adaptation trend is removed from the monthly time series. mortality seasonality varies little between most us cities with comparable climates. by the 1990s, monthly mortality anomalies were similar between all cities regardless of climate, suggesting there is no net mortality benefit to be derived from a location's climate. after removing the impact of long-term declining mortality rates, some statistically significant monthly climate-mortality relationships remain in most cities, with generally positive temperature-mortality relationships in summer and negative relationships in winter. future mortality could be reduced with a winter-dominant warming but increase with pronounced summer warming. in each case, however, net future climate-related mortality rates are very low relative to the baseline death rate, indicating that climate change will have little impact in defining future mortality patterns in us cities. key words: human mortality * climate change * seasonality * united states
Why there is limited scope Adaptation analysis?
the main downward bias in existing studies has to do with their limited scope adaptation analysis is still predominantly a domain for case studies. only a handful of studies aspire to provide a comprehensive global estimate, and the first generation of global studies (see table 1.2 above) measured adaptation costs in only one particular sector, the cost of climate-proofing new investments
What does clear adaptation needs ?
some areas with clear adaptation needs - such as energy and tourism - were omitted, as were some prominent adaptation strategies that are likely to feature prominently, most notably migration.6 moreover, in the areas that were considered, the analysis was not always comprehensive
Define Hard adaptation measures?
hard adaptation measures, such as the expansion of water supply systems, are relatively easy to capture and generalise, but they are also potentially much more expensive than soft measures like changes in water demand (e.g., in response to price incentives
the main downward bias in existing studies has to do with their limited scope adaptation analysis is still predominantly a domain for case studies. only a handful of studies aspire to provide a comprehensive global estimate, and the first generation of global studies (see table 1.2 above) measured adaptation costs in only one particular sector, the cost of climate-proofing new investments. even the most extensive study to date (unfccc, 2007) is limited to six sectors, of which five were ultimately reported (agriculture, water, health, coastal zones, infrastructure). some areas with clear adaptation needs - such as energy and tourism - were omitted, as were some prominent adaptation strategies that are likely to feature prominently, most notably migration.6 moreover, in the areas that were considered, the analysis was not always comprehensive. for example, only three health impacts were assessed (malnutrition, malaria and diarrhoea) while the water estimate excludes the cost of flood control and the extra expenditures required to maintain water quality. the effect of insufficient depth is more difficult to assess. even in detailed case studies it is difficult to consider systematically all available adaptation options. adaptation is too broad and 'nebulous' (agrawala and fankhauser, 2008) a concept to capture analytically in a comprehensive way. the problem is exacerbated in global studies, which have to simplify and ignore local circumstances. this introduces at least two biases, one leading to an under-estimation and the other to an overestimation of true adaptation costs. the first bias is a preference for 'hard' structural adaptation measures over 'soft' behavioural or regulatory adaptations (agriculture is an exception). hard adaptation measures, such as the expansion of water supply systems, are relatively easy to capture and generalise, but they are also potentially much more expensive than soft measures like changes in water demand (e.g., in response to price incentives). more generally, the proposed adaptation options are rarely subjected to a rigorous cost-effectiveness test, suggesting that other, more effective options might be identified once concrete options are being considered.
How public lands and waters in the United States traditionally have been managed by ?
public lands and waters in the united states traditionally have been managed using frameworks and objectives that were established under an implicit assumption of stable climatic conditions
What are the general principles for management adaptations?
we summarize general principles for management adaptations that have emerged from a major literature review. these general principles cover many topics including: (1) how to assess climate impacts to ecosystem processes that are key to management goals; (2) using management practices to support ecosystem resilience; (3) converting barriers that may inhibit management responses into opportunities for successful implementation; and (4) promoting flexible decision making that takes into account challenges of scale and thresholds
How anticipated climate change effect ecosystem?
it is anticipated that climate change will push certain ecosystems and species beyond their capacity to recover
public lands and waters in the united states traditionally have been managed using frameworks and objectives that were established under an implicit assumption of stable climatic conditions. however, projected climatic changes render this assumption invalid. here, we summarize general principles for management adaptations that have emerged from a major literature review. these general principles cover many topics including: (1) how to assess climate impacts to ecosystem processes that are key to management goals; (2) using management practices to support ecosystem resilience; (3) converting barriers that may inhibit management responses into opportunities for successful implementation; and (4) promoting flexible decision making that takes into account challenges of scale and thresholds. to date, the literature on management adaptations to climate change has mostly focused on strategies for bolstering the resilience of ecosystems to persist in their current states. yet in the longer term, it is anticipated that climate change will push certain ecosystems and species beyond their capacity to recover. when managing to support resilience becomes infeasible, adaptation may require more than simply changing management practices--it may require changing management goals and managing transitions to new ecosystem states. after transitions have occurred, management will again support resilience--this time for a new ecosystem state. thus, successful management of natural resources in the context of climate change will require recognition on the part of managers and decisions makers of the need to cycle between ''managing for resilience'' and ''managing for change.'' keywords climate change  adaptation  resource management  ecosystems  resilience  uncertainty  triage  thresholds
Livestock will have a role in what, in relation to climate change?
in relation to climate change, livestock will have a role in both mitigation and adaptation
Livestock mitigation measures could include what?
livestock mitigation measures could include technical and management options to reduce ghg emissions from livestock as well as the integration of livestock into broader environmental service approaches
What are the author's foci?
rather, we focus on specific impacts of climate change on livestock systems and the opportunities for livestock to be a tool for helping the poor to adapt to the effects of climate change
in relation to climate change, livestock will have a role in both mitigation and adaptation. livestock mitigation measures could include technical and management options to reduce ghg emissions from livestock as well as the integration of livestock into broader environmental service approaches. these are not discussed further here. rather, we focus on specific impacts of climate change on livestock systems and the opportunities for livestock to be a tool for helping the poor to adapt to the effects of climate change. the livestock aspects include impacts on the natural resource base supporting livestock production (largely feed and water); livestock genetic resources, breeding and management; and livestock health.
How Semi-arid and sub-humid West Africa is characterized?
semi-arid and sub-humid west africa is characterized by high inter-annual rainfall variability, with variable onset of the rainy season, somewhat more predictable endings, and drought or excess water occurrence at any time during the growing season
What does the  article summarizes?
this article summarizes options for plant breeders to enhance adaptation of pearl millet pennisetum glaucum [l.] r. br.) and sorghum sorghum bicolor [l.] moench) to climate variability in west africa
How to enhance adaptation of pearl millet Pennisetum glaucum?
this article summarizes options for plant breeders to enhance adaptation of pearl millet pennisetum glaucum [l.] r. br.) and sorghum sorghum bicolor [l.] moench) to climate variability in west africa
with 1 figure and 2 tables 2 2 semi-arid and sub-humid west africa is characterized by high inter-annual rainfall variability, with variable onset of the rainy season, somewhat more predictable endings, and drought or excess water occurrence at any time during the growing season. climate change is predicted to increase this variability. this article summarizes options for plant breeders to enhance adaptation of pearl millet pennisetum glaucum [l.] r. br.) and sorghum sorghum bicolor [l.] moench) to climate variability in west africa. developing variety types with high degrees of heterozygosity and genetic heterogeneity for adaptation traits helps achieving better individual and population buffering capacity. traits that potentially enhance adaptive phenotypic plasticity or yield stability in variable climates include photoperiod-sensitive flowering, plastic tillering, flooding tolerance, seedling heat tolerance, and phosphorus efficiency. farmer-participatory dynamic genepool management using broad-based populations and diverse selection environments is useful to develop new diverse germplasm adapted to specific production constraints including climate variability. for sustainable productivity increase, improved cultivars should respond to farmer-adoptable soil fertility management and water harvesting techniques. larger-scale, on-farm participatory testing will enable assessments of varietal performance under evolving climatic variability, provide perspective on needs and opportunities, and enhance adoption. strengthening seed systems will be required to achieve sustainable impacts.
What is an particularly challenging research questions?
a particularly challenging research questions is how to conduct integrated assessments of climate impacts and response options with interactions across sectors
Are many sophisticated integrated assessment models that focus on the community or state level and integrate adaptation responses?
while quite sophisticated integrated assessment models exist, few if any focus on the community or state level, and few are advanced enough to integrate adaptation responses
What an research about studies of potentially positive or negative synergies of societal responses or policies would require?
such research would require multi-disciplinary, cross-sector teams, adoption of a systemic perspective, careful analyses of causal connections, and systematic sensitivity analyses of different assumptions and linkages
a particularly challenging research questions is how to conduct integrated assessments of climate impacts and response options with interactions across sectors. while quite sophisticated integrated assessment models exist, few if any focus on the community or state level, and few are advanced enough to integrate adaptation responses. the next generation of integrated assessments thus needs to take into account the direct impacts of climate change, within and across sectors, and the additional direct and indirect impacts of adaptation responses to the experienced climate changes. a similar challenge lies yet ahead in investigating the mutual influences of mitigation and adaptation responses. while individual studies of potentially positive or negative synergies of societal responses or policies exist, such assessments are not conducted systematically or routinely, and certainly not as standard procedure prior to passing legislation or implementing policies. such research would require multi-disciplinary, cross-sector teams, adoption of a systemic perspective, careful analyses of causal connections, and systematic sensitivity analyses of different assumptions and linkages.
What is central to NOAA's mission?
developing a global dynamical model that has skill in predicting/simulating intense tcs
What have Scientists at GFDL developed?
a new high-resolution 25-km mesh coupled model (hiflor
What was HiFLOR developed from?
hiflor was developed from flor (vecchi et al. 2014) by quadrupling the number of horizontal grid cells of the atmosphere and land components (from a 50-km to 25-km mesh
extremely intense tropical cyclones (tcs), such as categories 4 and 5 hurricanes, have marked socio-economic impacts. therefore, developing a global dynamical model that has skill in predicting/simulating intense tcs is central to noaa's mission and highly relevant to society. in order to tackle the problem of understanding and predicting the variations and changes in regional hydrometeorological conditions and extreme events (particularly category 4 5 hurricanes) on timescales of weeks to centuries, scientists at gfdl have developed a new high-resolution 25-km mesh coupled model (hiflor). hiflor was developed from flor (vecchi et al. 2014) by quadrupling the number of horizontal grid cells of the atmosphere and land components (from a 50-km to 25-km mesh). hiflor leads to substantial improvements in the simulation and prediction of tcs, relative to flor, a model which is currently used for real-time seasonal predictions through the nmme
Does the agreement between model and data imply that the modelling assumptions accurately describe the processes producing the observed climate system behaviour?
agreement between model and data does not imply that the modelling assumptions accurately describe the processes producing the observed climate system behaviour; it merely indicates that the model is one (of maybe several) that is plausible, meaning that it is empirically adequate
How can a model most likely be adequate and useful in making predictions?
a lack of disagreement in repeated experiments and applications means that the model is more likely to be adequate and useful to infer some prediction from it, at least within the range of applications or parameters where it has been evaluated oreskes et al 1994 
Does a model have to be perfect?
we do not need a perfect model, just one that serves the purpose. an aeroplane, for example, can be constructed with the help of numerical models that are not able to properly simulate turbulent flow. economic models are used for risk management, knowing that it is impossible to properly describe human behaviour in mathematical terms. a model only needs to be empirically adequate to address a particular question
climate models make projections of many different quantities, so whether a model is 'good' or 'bad' depends on the question of interest. for numerical weather prediction, for example, skill is relatively well defined because forecasts can be verified on a daily basis, which makes it possible to derive robust statistics of model skill (although there are different skill scores as well). for a climate model, it is more difficult to define a unique overall figure of merit, metric or skill score for long-term projections. each model tends to simulate some aspects of the climate system well and others not so well, and each model has its own set of strengths and weaknesses. the situation is worse because skill has to be defined based on the simulation of processes, the past or the present climate, rather than the quantity of interest, the future, for which no observations exist. if model and data do not agree, the scientist should be worried (assuming the model was designed to reproduce the data), because it implies that the model (or the data) is in error. the opposite, however, is not true. agreement between model and data does not imply that the modelling assumptions accurately describe the processes producing the observed climate system behaviour; it merely indicates that the model is one (of maybe several) that is plausible, meaning that it is empirically adequate. all aogcms, for example, reproduce the observed surface warming rather well hegerl et al 2007 knutti 2008 ), and yet they have different feedbacks that lead to different projections for future warming, so the agreement over the past is not per se a guarantee for a reliable prediction. a lack of disagreement in repeated experiments and applications means that the model is more likely to be adequate and useful to infer some prediction from it, at least within the range of applications or parameters where it has been evaluated oreskes et al 1994 ). model performance is also relative; a good model is often meant to be good relative to other models of similar type. a pragmatic approach is to accept that the observed data tell us only about internal consistency between model and data. we do not need a perfect model, just one that serves the purpose. an aeroplane, for example, can be constructed with the help of numerical models that are not able to properly simulate turbulent flow. economic models are used for risk management, knowing that it is impossible to properly describe human behaviour in mathematical terms. a model only needs to be empirically adequate to address a particular question. in the absence of better alternatives, one may even use a 'model' that is not known to be adequate but that is likely to be better than, say, random guessing. for example, a broker invests money into a company that develops a product. he has no quantitative, formal model known to have skill in guiding such investments; he makes judgements based on past performance of the company (implicitly his model) in different situations. his decisions are essentially an extrapolation, but are still likely to be better (at least that is what he believes) than random guessing. a collection of models can be used to characterize the uncertainty in projections tebaldi knutti 2007 ). on the largest scale, the models can be seen as different plausible approximations to the real world given the uncertainty in our understanding of the climate system parker 2006 ), the limited observations and the constraints in computational capacity. models may make conflicting assumptions on smaller scales, i.e. two parametrizations of ocean mixing may
What are the four categories of reliable data required for numerical models to be a powerful tool?
numerical models can be a powerful tool to place bounds on likely ch4 emissions to the ocean and atmosphere as a result of gas hydrate dissociation but only if based on appropriate assumptions and reliable data about (a) gas hydrate distributions, (b) ch4 migration dynamics through sediments, (c) biogeochemical ch4 sinks, and (d) climate forcing
What tends to be bias results toward more catastrophic emissions and global warming scenarios?
new modeling studies should resist selectively choosing which sinks to include since this approach tends to bias results toward more catastrophic emissions and global warming scenarios
When is caution necessary, in light of the heterogeneity of gas hydrate deposits?
in light of the heterogeneity of gas hydrate deposits, though, caution is necessary when upscaling of results obtained based on regional scenarios to the global system
ruppel and kessler climate-hydrates interactions 156 shells and whether these phenomena allow methane to travel to shallower depths in the water column rehder et al ., 2002]. numerical models can be a powerful tool to place bounds on likely ch4 emissions to the ocean and atmosphere as a result of gas hydrate dissociation but only if based on appropriate assumptions and reliable data about (a) gas hydrate distributions, (b) ch4 migration dynamics through sediments, (c) biogeochemical ch4 sinks, and (d) climate forcing. new modeling studies should resist selectively choosing which sinks to include since this approach tends to bias results toward more catastrophic emissions and global warming scenarios. as a fi rst step, careful modeling that isolates the ch4 contribution related to gas hydrate dissociation based on regional knowledge of the source (hydrate distribution) and sink strengths will have the best prospect for providing reliable, quantitative information about emissions. in light of the heterogeneity of gas hydrate deposits, though, caution is necessary when upscaling of results obtained based on regional scenarios to the global system. recent numerical models that couple the ocean and atmosphere and that account for ocean circulation represent a major advance in tracking global climate-hydrate interactions, although researchers must often adopt knowledge of contemporary ocean currents and temperature distributions to study processes in the past.
What is results from a metagenomic study by American researchers on honey bee populations?
honey bee colonies are infested by numerous pathogens, including imported ones
Why doesn't Tropilaelaps mite yet infest Apis mellifera?
this honey bee's development cycle includes a period without brood, on which the mite is utterly reliant for its survival
recent results from a metagenomic study by american researchers on honey bee populations suffering from colony collapse disorder are highly instructive in this respect (8). they have shown that honey bee colonies are infested by numerous pathogens, including imported ones. there is therefore a high likelihood that as yet unidentified pathogens exist on certain honey bee species or races. pathogen species infesting different honey bee races or species can be brought into contact with new hosts. the recent discovery of nosema cerana (15) and the israeli acute paralysis virus (8) among apis mellifera is a potent example of the role humans can play in movements of honey bee populations. climate change could modify the interactions among these different pathogens. tropilaelaps is an interesting case in point. the tropilaelaps mite does not yet infest apis mellifera because this honey bee's development cycle includes a period without brood, on which the mite is utterly reliant for its survival (34). however, if climate change induces warmer winters, apis mellifera would have to adapt towards a continual brood cycle, which would render it a potential host for tropilaelaps
what is mean by lakes?
although long-term records exist for some lakes, they are relatively scarce and are rarely sufficiently long to capture the full range of timescales needed
This is lake Integrated Record?
sediment records do not possess the precision and accuracy of observational data but they occur in almost all lakes and provide an integrated record of lake history
What is the ascending water column?
a lake water column, they play an essential role in verifying palaeo-reconstructions, and the palaeo-data can then be used to extend the record back in time, enabling the identification of longer-term trends and the definition of lake status before the impact of human activity (cf.bennion et al. 2011
attempts to disentangle the relative role of climate change from nutrient pollution in driving ecosystem change require the examination of long-term data. although long-term records exist for some lakes, they are relatively scarce and are rarely sufficiently long to capture the full range of timescales needed. however the necessary time perspective can be obtained using sediment records. sediment records do not possess the precision and accuracy of observational data but they occur in almost all lakes and provide an integrated record of lake history. using palaeo-data together with observational records offers the best opportunity of generating datasets of sufficient length and quality to address these questions of ecosystem change (cf.battarbee et al. 2005). in particular, when observational time series and palaeo-records can be accurately matched for the periods of overlap, the different data types can be mutually supportive. although observational data have their own weaknesses with respect to e.g. the representativity of spot samples within a lake water column, they play an essential role in verifying palaeo-reconstructions, and the palaeo-data can then be used to extend the record back in time, enabling the identification of longer-term trends and the definition of lake status before the impact of human activity (cf.bennion et al. 2011).
What are the five beliefs and perceptions that were used as indicators of global warming acceptance?
the perception of scientific agreement on global warming, belief in the human causes of global warming, certainty that global warming is happening, concern about the impact of global warming, and the valence of expectations regarding the outcomes of taking action on global warming
why are the five variables  combined into a single omnibus index?
for the sake of parsimony
what were the choices of respondents for perception of scientific agreement?
most scientists think global warming is happening," "most scientists think global warming is not happening," "there is a lot of disagreement among scientists about whether or not global warming is happening," or "don't know enough to say
five beliefs and perceptions were used as indicators of global warming acceptance: the perception of scientific agreement on global warming, belief in the human causes of global warming, certainty that global warming is happening, concern about the impact of global warming, and the valence of expectations regarding the outcomes of taking action on global warming. for the sake of parsimony, these five variables were combined into a single omnibus index, which served as the dependent variable in our analyses. a principal components factor analysis confirmed that these five variables load on a single factor (eigenvalue 2.92; all factor loadings .64), and internal reliability was high (a .82). each of the five variables was standardized before being summed into an index. measurement of the five individual variables is described below. perception of scientific agreement respondents were asked to indicate which of the following comes closer to their own views: "most scientists think global warming is happening," "most scientists think global warming is not happening," "there is a lot of disagreement among scientists about whether or not global warming is happening," or "don't know enough to say." responses were collapsed to create a dichotomous variable, where 1 represented the perception that most scientists think global warming is happening (46.5 percent) and 0 represented other opinions, including don't know. belief in the human causes of global warming respondents were asked whether they thought global warming is caused mostly by human activities, mostly by natural changes in the environment, a combination of human activities and natural changes, neither because global warming isn't happening, or if they didn't know. responses were collapsed to create a dichotomous measure, where 1 represented the belief that
What the IPCC defines  vulnerability?
ipcc (2007) defines vulnerability as 'the degree to which a system is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes
What did  Adger defines  vulnerability?
the state of susceptibility to harm from exposure to stresses associated with environmental and social change and from the absence of capacity to adapt
What are the factors of IPCC and Adger?
exposure to stress and inability to cope
the ability of systems to adapt to global climate change is often discussed in terms of resilience and vulnerability. in the ar4, the ipcc (2007) defines vulnerability as 'the degree to which a system is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes'. adger (2006: 268) defines vulnerability as 'the state of susceptibility to harm from exposure to stresses associated with environmental and social change and from the absence of capacity to adapt'. both of these definitions emphasize the importance of two factors: exposure to stress and inability to cope. the ipcc (2007) further points out that 'those in the weakest economic position are often the most vulnerable to climate change and are frequently the most susceptible to climate-related damages, especially when they face multiple stresses'. in this respect, specific reference is made in the ar4 to indigenous peoples and traditional ways of living, particularly in polar regions and small island states.  climate change, however, is only one of many drivers of change. its effects cannot be isolated from the multiple social, political, economic and environmental changes confronting present-day indigenous and marginalized communities. these impacts interact together and induce exacerbating and cascading effects.
How biogeographic model is originally developed?
knowing both ctmax for sfg and ltmax to define tem plus the degree of environmental variation in both the environment in which a biogeographic model is originally developed and the new environment to which it will be applied
Explain the work of Jones (2010)?
however, the work of jones (2010) on geographic determinants of the ecologically dominant marine mussel mytilus edulis is an excellent example. jones (2010) presented a mechanistic biogeographic model for m. edulis on the atlantic coast of north america based on ltmax which was calculated experimentally in both air and water and measured in the field (jones et al. 2009, 2010
Why Physiological limits were compared?
hysiological limits were then compared against environmental temperatures, and the biogeographic distribution of this species on the east coast of north america was accurately predicted (jones 2010
few datasets exist that allow testing of the predictions of table 2. this is not surprising given the necessity of knowing both ctmax for sfg and ltmax to define tem plus the degree of environmental variation in both the environment in which a biogeographic model is originally developed and the new environment to which it will be applied. however, the work of jones (2010) on geographic determinants of the ecologically dominant marine mussel mytilus edulis is an excellent example. jones (2010) presented a mechanistic biogeographic model for m. edulis on the atlantic coast of north america based on ltmax which was calculated experimentally in both air and water and measured in the field (jones et al. 2009, 2010). physiological limits were then compared against environmental temperatures, and the biogeographic distribution of this species on the east coast of north america was accurately predicted (jones 2010) (fig. 3). the hindcast done with the model also successfully predicted historical changes in distribution over the past 50 years (jones et al. 2009, 2010). when this same model was applied in europe, using physiological data for the environment of origin, it failed utterly to predict the biogeography of this species; the observed distribution of the species in europe was 50% less than that predicted by the model (fig. 3) (jones 2010). the model from the eastern atlantic based on thermal tolerance limits, ltmax,
What kind of leadership leads to an ethical climate?
ethical leadership will be positively related to ethical climate
What do Martin and Cullen suggest that positive ethical climates are negatively related to?
recently martin and cullen 2006 conducted a meta-analysis on ethical climates and their results suggest that positive ethical climates are negatively related to dysfunctional organizational behavior
What were Schwepker's findings when organizations had a higher ethical climate?
finally, schwepker et al. 1997 found that when organizations had a higher ethical climate, there was less conflict between employees and managers
ethical leadership will be positively related to ethical climate. ethical climate and employee misconduct next, we suggest that ethical climate will be related to employee misconduct within work units by drawing on social information processing theory (sipt; salancik and pfeffer, 1978 ). sipt suggests that individuals look to their environment for cues to characterize their work environment and to understand appropriate ways to behave. ethical climates can serve as one cue to help individuals know what types of (un)ethical behaviors are (un)acceptable in the work unit. the social environment, or ethical climate in this case, provides information to individuals as to the appropriateness of behavior they see in the work environment. the ethical climate also provides cues to individuals as to how others in the work environment deem what is acceptable behavior. these perceived actions and attitudes of others inform individuals' thinking about what behaviors are important, appropriate, and likely to be rewarded and what behaviors are not. thus, the ethical climate provides understanding and meaning as to what the unit values and the types of behaviors that are acceptable, which helps individuals determine the appropriate ways to behave. in other words, work climates provide individuals with the group norms regarding appropriate behavior in the unit. therefore, if ethical climate is higher in emphasizing ethical actions, employees will be less likely to exhibit unethical behaviors. extant research has examined the consequences of ethical work climate on specific ethical outcomes, such as unethical and deviant behaviors. these studies include both field and lab studies and overall show strong support that ethical work climates are linked to unethical behaviors in organizations. recently martin and cullen 2006 conducted a meta-analysis on ethical climates and their results suggest that positive ethical climates are negatively related to dysfunctional organizational behavior. for instance, bartels et al. 1998 found that ethical climate was negatively related to ethical violations. wimbush et al. 1997 found that caring climates and law and code climates were negatively related to stealing and lying behaviors. further, instrumental climates were positively related to being an accomplice. in addition, vardi 2001 found that ethical climates were negatively related to misbehavior in a non-western sample. thus, the more positively viewed the organization is, the less reported misbehavior. peterson 2002 found that organizational deviance was lower in ethical caring climates. finally, schwepker et al. 1997 found that when organizations had a higher ethical climate, there was less conflict between employees and managers. overall, there is strong support that ethical climates have an effect on misbehavior in organizations. however, one limitation of these previous studies is that they are all at the psychological climate level or an individual's perceptions of the ethical climate rather than an aggregate or unit perception of the ethical climate. yet, ethical climate is typically conceptualized at the unit level in extant research. our study conceptualizes and tests ethical climate at the unit level. according to a review on organizational climates (kuenzi and schminke, 2009 ), ''facet specific climates ... have demonstrated strong relationships with parallel facet-specific outcomes ... '' (p. 693). thus, drawing on social information processing theory, previous work on organizational climate, and the work on psychological ethical climate, we expect unit-level ethical climate to be negatively related to employee misconduct. 9 ethical leadership, ethical climate, and employee misconduct
In addition to shaping followers' attitudes at the individual level, how might TFL influence follower performance?
in addition to shaping followers' attitudes at the individual level, tfl may influence follower performance by transforming the general climate of the service environment at the work-unit level
TFL may create a positive service climate to enhance what?
extending this research to the customer service context, we argue that tfl may create a positive service climate to enhance employee service performance
Service climate refers to what?
service climate refers to employees' shared perception of the policies, practices, and procedures concerning customer service; it constitutes the tone and atmosphere in which the employees work
in addition to shaping followers' attitudes at the individual level, tfl may influence follower performance by transforming the general climate of the service environment at the work-unit level. this latter function of transformational leaders has received much less attention in tfl research. barling, loughlin, and kelloway (2002) were among the first to examine such function and showed that tfl reduced occupational injuries partially through its effects on establishing a safety climate. extending this research to the customer service context, we argue that tfl may create a positive service climate to enhance employee service performance. service climate refers to employees' shared perception of the policies, practices, and procedures concerning customer service; it constitutes the tone and atmosphere in which the employees work (schneider et al., 1998). because employees' climate perceptions are more likely to be shaped by their immediate organizational context (schneider, 1983), leadership of the immediate supervisor may serve as "a key filter in the interpretations that provide the basis for subordinates' climate perceptions" (kozlowski doherty, 1989, p. 547). transformational leaders, in particular, may be powerful agents in transforming the work unit's service climate. by behaviors such as articulating a compelling vision of customer service, inspiring enthusiasm and optimism about winning customer loyalty, serving as employees' charismatic role model in service, encouraging new ways of serving customers, and recognizing employees' individual needs and contributions, transformational leaders may clearly communicate to service employees that organizational policies, practices, and procedures are focused on providing high-quality service and, hence, fostering a positive service climate. as climate is a social-cognitive construct inferred from "procedures as pattern" (zohar, 2000; zohar luria, 2004), employees in a work unit assess whether the leader's public behaviors "converge into an internally consistent pattern" (zohar, 2000, p. 588) in terms of emphasizing or deemphasizing service. it would hinder the emergence of a positive service climate if a leader's behaviors encouraged and rewarded good service on one occasion or for one employee yet discouraged and ignored good service on another occasion or for another employee. as a result, service climate is determined by the overall pattern of leadership behaviors displayed to the entire work unit instead of the one-on-one leadership behaviors perceived by each individual. we thus focus on the relationship between work-unit-level tfl and service climate. furthermore, we argue that a work unit's service climate may have a cross-level, top-down influence on an individual employee's service performance. a goal-specific organizational climate signals how things ought to be done and helps employees determine what behavior is appropriate in a given work environment, thus molding employees' behavior toward the specific goal of the organization (schneider, 1983). in the service context, a positive service climate may help employees perceive that superior service is expected, desired, and rewarded, thus providing a strong motivational force for employees to deliver better service. indeed, prior research has found that store service climate is positively associated with individual employees' service performance (liao chuang, 2004). thus, we expect service climate to act as a mediator through which work-unit-level tfl influences employee service performance. because tfl may influence employee performance through other mechanisms, such as by implementing storelevel practices that directly enhance employees' knowledge, skills, and abilities in customer service (hence, their service performance), we propose a partial mediation rather than a full mediation. hypothesis 3: work-unit-level service climate partially mediates the relationship between work-unit-level tfl and individual-level employee service performance.
Where water vapor is mostly concentrated ?
water vapor is mostly concentrated near the surface
What is The difference between the rates of change of column water vapor with invariant relative humidity and surface ?
the difference between the rates of change of column water vapor with invariant relative humidity and surface saturation specific humidity is of order 2% k-1for latitudes in the range 50*s-50*n (figure 1 ). thus, clausius-clapeyron scaling implies somewhat different rates of change for surface and column quantities
What Clausius be-Clapeyron scaling implies ?
clausius-clapeyron scaling implies somewhat different rates of change for surface and column quantities
we also analyze the rate of change of surface specific humidity under climate change. this cannot be drastically different from the rate of change of column water vapor since water vapor is mostly concentrated near the surface (e.g., schneider et al 2010 ). however, it may not behave in exactly the same way given vertical variations in mean temperature and relative humidity and their changes under global warming. the rates of change of surface specific humidity are generally smaller than those in column water vapor except at high latitudes in both hemispheres (figure 1 ). this is also the case for surface saturation specific humidity, and so is partly related to the thermal structure of the atmosphere and its changes under climate change. the difference between the rates of change of column water vapor with invariant relative humidity and surface saturation specific humidity is of order 2% k-1for latitudes in the range 50*s-50*n (figure 1 ). thus, clausius-clapeyron scaling implies somewhat different rates of change for surface and column quantities. the fractional changes in zonal-mean surface specific humidity and saturation specific humidity are very similar except in northern mid-latitudes (global rates of change of 5
What are the negative psychological outcomes of discrimination based on race and ethnicity? Please cite your sources.
anxiety, depression, emotional reactivity, and lowered self-esteem (carter, 2007; mossakowski, 2003; williams, neighbors, jackson, 2003
What races of non-white origin have been documented higher rates of PTSD in the aftermath of natural disasters?
asian american, african american, and native american vietnam veterans (norris, friedman, watson, byrne, et al., 2002
What age demographic did the survey explore?
college-aged population
it is now generally accepted that experiences of discrimination based on race and ethnicity tend to be positively associated with negative psychological outcomes, such as anxiety, depression, emotional reactivity, and lowered self-esteem (carter, 2007; mossakowski, 2003; williams, neighbors, jackson, 2003). however, the extent to which psychological reactions to racial and ethnic discrimination might be associated with the symptoms characteristic of traumatic stress or posttraumatic stress disorder (ptsd) remains unclear. given the well-documented history of racial oppression and ethnic discrimination in the united states (feagin, 2001; marger, 2008), some have argued that people of non-european descent, from here on referred to as people of color might have higher levels and more frequent experiences of stress that could lead to traumatic stress reactions (allen, 1996; butts, 2002; carter, 2007). indeed, studies have documented higher rates of ptsd among asian american, african american, and native american vietnam veterans (norris, friedman, watson, byrne, et al., 2002), as well as higher rates of ptsd in non-white civilian populations in the aftermath of natural disasters, such as hurricane andrew (norris, 1992). therefore, in the current investigation, we sought to examine the associations among racial and/or ethnic discrimination, racial climate, and trauma-related symptoms. in particular, in the study, we focused on whether perceptions of racial and/or ethnic discrimination and negative racial climate were associated with trauma-related symptoms in a college-aged population not necessarily exposed to a specific traumatic event. whereas the suggestion that racial and/or ethnic discrimination could be viewed as a type of trauma has received increasing theoretical consideration, empirical examinations of this hypothesis in a racially diverse population not exposed to a specific traumatic event are lacking.
how many barley grain producers are included in the data
illustrative countries among the top 50 barley grain producers world-wide are included in the compilation
what countries are included in FAOSTAT
countries included in regional compilations: northern europe denmark, finland, ireland, latvia, lithuania, norway, sweden and the uk; southern europe bulgaria, greece, italy and spain; other europe austria, france, germany, hungary, the netherlands, poland and romania; asia/eurasia afghanistan, china (mainland), india, iran, iraq, kazakhstan, syria and turkey; africa algeria, morocco, south africa and tunisia (ethiopia
can african subsistence barley production still be considered in the study
note that for low-income nations, where much barley is produced under subsistence agriculture, yield data are likely to be less accurate than for highand middle-income countries
fig. 1 annual barley hordeum vulgare ssp. vulgare grain yield data for the 50-yr period 1961 - 2010, according to faostat (2014). data are arithmetic means across countries by geographical region, except in the case of syria where data are extracted from the asia/eurasia mean to show the high inter-annual variability in reported yields there. illustrative countries among the top 50 barley grain producers world-wide are included in the compilation (based on mean annual production values, 2003 - 2012, faostat figures). to be included, countries had to have data reported at faostat for every year of the time series. trends in yield are indicated for regions. these show that in recent decades yields have stagnated in several important production regions, such as in parts of europe. data on wheat grain yields are also indicated for european regions. countries included in regional compilations: northern europe denmark, finland, ireland, latvia, lithuania, norway, sweden and the uk; southern europe bulgaria, greece, italy and spain; other europe austria, france, germany, hungary, the netherlands, poland and romania; asia/eurasia afghanistan, china (mainland), india, iran, iraq, kazakhstan, syria and turkey; africa algeria, morocco, south africa and tunisia (ethiopia, a country of interest because of its relatively high barley production, could not be included in the africa group because only incomplete data are available at faostat). note that for low-income nations, where much barley is produced under subsistence agriculture, yield data are likely to be less accurate than for highand middle-income countries.
What has been an issue with past climate change studies in the US?
there have been many studies of the potential impacts of climate change on u.s. agriculture but all have limitations 1,2,3,4 
What has been overlooked in past studies?
past studies also have not considered the impact of climate change on the use of agricultural pesticides, on the environment via climate-induced changes in agricultural resource use, or the impacts on the agriculture sector of changes in climate variability
Why has the potential for agricultural economy to adapt to climate change been inconclusive?
the potential for the agricultural economy to adapt to climate change has also received much attention but research remains inconclusive because of the difficulty of providing complete tests of competing hypotheses 5,6 
there have been many studies of the potential impacts of climate change on u.s. agriculture but all have limitations 1,2,3,4 ). past studies have used doubled-co2 equilibrium climate scenarios usually without aerosols rather than more realistic transient climate scenarios driven by gradually increased greenhouse gas forcing. past studies also have not considered the impact of climate change on the use of agricultural pesticides, on the environment via climate-induced changes in agricultural resource use, or the impacts on the agriculture sector of changes in climate variability. the potential for the agricultural economy to adapt to climate change has also received much attention but research remains inconclusive because of the difficulty of providing complete tests of competing hypotheses 5,6 ). we have investigated these unresolved issues and report the results and methods more fully in (7).
When did the shared variance held by the tree chronologies and the inter annual growth variability increase?
the shared variance held by the tree chronologies and the interannual growth variability increased markedly during the studied period. this enhancement of growth synchrony among forests indicates that climate might have become more limiting to tree ring formation. noticeably, the upward abrupt shift in common variability at the end of the first half of the 20th century happened at the same time as an enhancement of the prior august- september temperature influence over radial growth
What does the higher occurrence of extremely narrow rings and the sensitivity increase coincided with?
the higher occurrence of extremely narrow rings and the sensitivity increase coincided with an increment of the precipitation variability during the growing period
How many climate factors could be limiting tree growth?
at least two climatic factors could have been limiting tree growth
despite the diversity of species, habitats and climatic regimes, our chronologies shared a common macroclimatic signal expressed by the first pc. the shared variance held by the tree chronologies and the interannual growth variability increased markedly during the studied period. this enhancement of growth synchrony among forests indicates that climate might have become more limiting to tree ring formation. noticeably, the upward abrupt shift in common variability at the end of the first half of the 20th century happened at the same time as an enhancement of the prior august- september temperature influence over radial growth. consequently, the greater similarity in tree-growth may be linked to a strengthening of water stress during late summer previous to the ring formation that agrees with the temperature increasing trend observed in these months. moreover, the higher occurrence of extremely narrow rings and the sensitivity increase coincided with an increment of the precipitation variability during the growing period. precipitation variability was positively related to tree-growth variability, but negatively to radial growth. therefore, at least two climatic factors could have been limiting tree growth and driving the observed changes in growth pattern and in climatic response of the studied forest during the second half of the 20th century: the increasing trends observed in mean temperatures and the increment detected in precipitation variability during the growing period. the absence of temporal stability in some growth- climate relationships may be critical and should be considered for reconstructions of past climatic conditions using tree-ring widths. the analysis of the temporal trends of shared variance among chronologies, as well as other tree ring characteristics should be taken into account to improve the reliability of the reconstructions.
What did a recent study, examining the impact of summer drought and flood events in the Sainte-Marguerite River system of eastern Quebec, conclude?
that these events influence the average size of salmon at the end of the summer through selective mortality of salmon fry
What happened in a study of New Brunswick streams show?
average feeding rates and long-term growth were determined to not be significantly reduced by flooding, despite temporary reductions in juvenile salmon growth in response to specific flood events
What is the issue that relatively few studies have addressed?
changes in the intensity and frequency of extreme events have the potential to impact marine fisheries
while it is broadly acknowledged that changes in the intensity and frequency of extreme events have the potential to impact marine fisheries, relatively few studies have addressed this issue. a recent study, examining the impact of summer drought and flood events in the sainte-marguerite river system of eastern quebec, concluded that these events influence the average size of salmon at the end of the summer through selective mortality of salmon fry.(47)during drought, mortality rates were higher in smaller salmon fry, whereas during floods, greater mortality rates were recorded among larger fry. however, other studies suggest that salmon are relatively resilient to flood events.(48)in a study of new brunswick streams, average feeding rates and long-term growth were determined to not be significantly reduced by flooding, despite temporary reductions in juvenile salmon growth in response to specific flood events.(48)
What has the state government begun investing in, as a result of climate changes effect on glaciers.
in montana's glacier national park, where climate change has led to the loss of numerous glaciers, the state government has begun investing in new "green" technologies like carbon sequestration and windmills
What is it that climate scientists cannot yet make claim to?
when discussing extreme events, however, communicators should bear in mind that while it is correct to say that climate change is increasing the odds of an extreme weather event, climate scientists cannot yet make the claim that climate change is causing such events
Which hurricane provided a powerful example of how costly extreme weather events can be?
katrina did, however, provide a powerful example of how costly extreme weather events can be, even if they aren't the direct result of climate change
when discussing extreme events, however, communicators should bear in mind that while it is correct to say that climate change is increasing the odds of an extreme weather event, climate scientists cannot yet make the claim that climate change is causing such events. this important distinction often gets lost or is misunderstood, causing confusion and undue skepticism (see section 5 for more about how to address scientific uncertainty). for example, although scientists can link the severity of hurricane katrina to increased warming in the ocean, it is difficult to distinguish how much of that warming is due to human activity and how much is the result of a natural cycle.\\x188 therefore, it is incorrect to say that climate change caused katrina. communicators should also be careful not to conflate cause and effect; a variety of factors conspired to make the aftermath of hurricane katrina so damaging and deadly. katrina did, however, provide a powerful example of how costly extreme weather events can be, even if they aren't the direct result of climate change. communicators can also use local frames to effectively illustrate climate change solutions. in montana's glacier national park, where climate change has led to the loss of numerous glaciers, the state government has begun investing in new "green" technologies like carbon sequestration and windmills.\\x189
What tactic could reduce emissions of 32 percent at current output levels?
estimates indicate that shifting all livestock farming to the least emissions-intensive production practices available within a particular region or agro-ecological zone could offer emissions reductions of 32 per cent at current output levels
Would shifting livestock farming to the least emissions-intensive production practices completely offset the demand for meat and dairy?
this would be a remarkable achievement, but not enough to offset rising demand for meat and dairy products
How many degrees Celsius should global temperatures be reduced to avoid catastrophic effects?
this is inconsistent with the downward trend in agricultural emissions needed to keep global warming below two degrees celsius and avoid catastrophic climate change
even with a transformative step change in policies and implementation, supply-side mitigation alone would be unable to contain increasing livestock emissions. estimates indicate that shifting all livestock farming to the least emissions-intensive production practices available within a particular region or agro-ecological zone could offer emissions reductions of 32 per cent at current output levels. this would be a remarkable achievement, but not enough to offset rising demand for meat and dairy products: livestock emissions would continue on an upward trajectory.35 this is inconsistent with the downward trend in agricultural emissions needed to keep global warming below two degrees celsius and avoid catastrophic climate change.36
Which decade do the Figure 1 Pacific Northwest summer precipitation projected changes apply to?
fig. 1. projected change (in percent) in summer precipitation for the 2080s in the u.s. pacific northwest
What skill factor is given to models with simulated 1970-2000 precipitation close to the observed precipitation?
models with simulated 1970-2000 precipitation close to the observed precipitation, within the range of natural variability, are given a skill factor of 1
Was there any difference among calculated changes calculated for the tested weightings?
there is little difference among changes calculated with all models unweighted (horizontal line), with only the "best" models (models with skill factor >0.9, solid circle), or with weighting the models by their skill factor (plus sign
fig. 1. projected change (in percent) in summer precipitation for the 2080s in the u.s. pacific northwest from a variety of climate models (open circles, as used by mote and salathe [2010]), for scenario a2 of the intergovernmental panel on climate change's special report on emissions scenarios. the x axis shows the bias factor of giorgi and mearns [2002]; models with simulated 1970-2000 precipitation close to the observed precipitation, within the range of natural variability, are given a skill factor of 1. linear fit to the data is indicated (sloping line). there is little difference among changes calculated with all models unweighted (horizontal line), with only the "best" models (models with skill factor >0.9, solid circle), or with weighting the models by their skill factor (plus sign).
Why is the carbon cycle important?
all natural ecosystems cycle carbon as an important part of the energy transfer needed to support life
What mitigation policies could support?
it is possible for climate mitigation policies to support interventions needed to reduce, protect, or enhance the potential of a natural systems to sequester and store carbon
What is typically an issue with new policies and regulations?
there may be a need for new policies and regulations to be developed; typically, this is much more difficult and time consuming than applying existing policy
all natural ecosystems cycle carbon as an important part of the energy transfer needed to support life. from a climate perspective, much of the carbon that naturally cycles through an ecosystem is part of the "baseline" condition, including fluxes into (eg carbon uptake via photosynthesis) and out of (eg carbon release via respiration) a system. however, the carbon pools and processes within each system that are pertinent to climate mitigation policies and national greenhousegas (ghg) inventories are those that (1) affect the levels of ghgs in the atmosphere enough to influence climate and (2) are responsive to human activities that can either increase (eg habitat degradation) or decrease (eg habitat restoration and conservation) ghg emissions. the following information is needed to ascertain whether an ecosystem or ecosystem component meets these require ments and to determine their potential emissions and removals for national ghg inventories: (1) carbon sequestration rate; (2) current carbon stocks, including the stability and perma nence of those stocks (ie how will those stocks be affected if the system is degraded or destroyed?); (3) geographic area; (4) anthropogenic drivers of system loss leading to carbon emissions or removals; and (5) emission rates from both degraded and intact states. with this information, it is possible for climate mitigation policies to support interventions needed to reduce, protect, or enhance the potential of a natural systems to sequester and store carbon. such interventions can potentially be included in existing climaterelated policy frameworks or funding mechanisms (eg redd+). alternatively, there may be a need for new policies and regulations to be developed; typically, this is much more difficult and time consuming than applying existing policy. in either case, additional information will be required to inform the development or expansion of policy to include the carbon mitigation benefits found in marine ecosystems. for example, understanding community tenure rights, rights of use, and governance for an ecosystem or ecosystem component - as well as identifying which individuals, institutions, or governments are responsible for management, and who stands to gain from resulting climate benefits - are all critical for proper implementation of climaterelated policies. likewise, it is important to know who would be sanctioned for actions that result in carbon being released (eg deforestation of mangroves) and whether the ecosystem can be managed to secure existing carbon stocks.
What countries experienced international disputes over water allocation since the collapse of the USSR?
the riparian countries of the aral sea basin have experienced international disputes over water allocation ever since the ussr collapsed
Where is the Syr Darya river located?
the worst such dispute concerns the syr darya, one of the two largest rivers in central asia
Is a climate change dispute over water resources in Central Asia likely?
our findings suggest that a climate change-induced militarized interstate dispute over water resources in central asia is unlikely
we engage in a critical assessment of the neo-malthusian claim that climatic changes can be an important source of international tensions, in the extreme even militarized interstate disputes. the most likely scenario is conflict over water allocation in international catchments shared by poorer, less democratic, and politically less stable countries, governed by weak international water management institutions, and exposed to severe climatic changes. the syr darya corresponds quite well to all these characteristics. if the neo-malthusian specter of conflict over water is empirically relevant, we should see signs of this in the syr darya. the riparian countries of the aral sea basin have experienced international disputes over water allocation ever since the ussr collapsed and, with it, existing water management institutions and funding. the worst such dispute concerns the syr darya, one of the two largest rivers in central asia. based on hydrological data and other information we find that the only existing international water management institution in the syr darya has failed. based on a coupled climate, land-ice and rainfallrunoff model for the syr darya, we then examine whether, in the absence of an effective international water allocation mechanism, climate change is likely to make existing international tensions over water allocation worse. we find that climate change-induced shifts in river runoff, to which the uzbek part of the syr darya catchment is particularly vulnerable, and which could contribute to a deterioration of already strained kyrgyz-uzbek relations, are likely to set in only in the medium to long term. this leaves some time for the riparian countries to set up an effective international framework for water allocation and prevention of climate-induced geohazards. by implication, our findings suggest that a climate change-induced militarized interstate dispute over water resources in central asia is unlikely. keywords central asia, climate change, conflict, international river, syr darya, water
what are the options needed for green house gas mitigation?
the successful implementation of greenhouse gas mitigation options would need to overcome technical, economic, political, cultural, social, behavioral, and/or institutional barriers that prevent the full exploitation of the technological, economic, and social opportunities of these options. the potential mitigation opportunities and types of barriers vary by region and sector, and over time. this is caused by the wide variation in mitigative capacity
which countries are get benefit to that?
most countries could benefit from innovative financing, social learning and innovation, institutional reforms, removing barriers to trade, and poverty eradication. in addition, in industrialized countries, future opportunities lie primarily in removing social and behavioral barriers; in countries with economies in transition, in price rationalization; and in developing countries, in price rationalization, increased access to data and information, availability of advanced technologies, financial resources, and training and capacity building
any reason for effective?
opportunities for any given country, however, might be found in the removal of any combination of barriers. national responses to climate change can be more effective if deployed as a portfolio of policy instruments to limit or reduce net greenhouse gas emissions. the portfolio may include--according to national circumstances--emissions/carbon/energy taxes, tradable or non-tradable permits, land-use policies, provision and/or removal of subsidies, deposit/refund systems, technology or performance standards, energy mix requirement, product bans, voluntary agreements, government spending and investment, and support for research and development
the successful implementation of greenhouse gas mitigation options would need to overcome technical, economic, political, cultural, social, behavioral, and/or institutional barriers that prevent the full exploitation of the technological, economic, and social opportunities of these options. the potential mitigation opportunities and types of barriers vary by region and sector, and over time. this is caused by the wide variation in mitigative capacity. most countries could benefit from innovative financing, social learning and innovation, institutional reforms, removing barriers to trade, and poverty eradication. in addition, in industrialized countries, future opportunities lie primarily in removing social and behavioral barriers; in countries with economies in transition, in price rationalization; and in developing countries, in price rationalization, increased access to data and information, availability of advanced technologies, financial resources, and training and capacity building. opportunities for any given country, however, might be found in the removal of any combination of barriers. national responses to climate change can be more effective if deployed as a portfolio of policy instruments to limit or reduce net greenhouse gas emissions. the portfolio may include--according to national circumstances--emissions/carbon/energy taxes, tradable or non-tradable permits, land-use policies, provision and/or removal of subsidies, deposit/refund systems, technology or performance standards, energy mix requirement, product bans, voluntary agreements, government spending and investment, and support for research and development.
Can the CBDR scenarios projected be comparable with estimated expenditures?
the regional contributions as projected by these cbdr scenarios are hugely different than the estimated adaptation expenditures across regions
What is the use of establishing international burden-sharing agreement regime ?
if an international burden-sharing agreement regime for adaptation financing is established based on one of these cbdr scenarios, a large transfer of wealth will be directed towards the aosis countries and ldcs in each of the cbdr scenarios, because they will experience the largest impacts of climate change over the shorter and longer terms
What is not discussed in this paper?
the institutional arrangements for such a transfer are not discussed in this paper and would represent a major political challenge
finally, it is important to note that the regional contributions as projected by these cbdr scenarios are hugely different than the estimated adaptation expenditures across regions. thus, if an international burden-sharing agreement regime for adaptation financing is established based on one of these cbdr scenarios, a large transfer of wealth will be directed towards the aosis countries and ldcs in each of the cbdr scenarios, because they will experience the largest impacts of climate change over the shorter and longer terms. the institutional arrangements for such a transfer are not discussed in this paper and would represent a major political challenge.
what is EBRD?
the european bank for reconstruction and development
FDI stands for?
foreign direct investment
what is IFC?
international finance corporation
apart from the problem of additional funding, there is also the issue of access to basic investment capital. this may not be an issue for large energy projects, since these are mostly located in countries with good access to investment capital and attractive conditions for fdi (foreign direct investment). but for small-scale energy-efficiency initiatives, access to financing is more frequently a barrier, even when it has excellent economic, social and environmental benefits. solving this problem requires national solutions that involve the banking system as well as government involvement. institutions such as the international finance corporation (ifc) and the european bank for reconstruction and development (ebrd) have developed such lending programmes. positive experiences can be replicated, but the lack of international frameworks or partnerships is a major barrier (kfw development bank, 2005; world bank, 2006c; miller, 2008).
What is the current value price of permits?
the basis for the current accounts is the present value price of permits which is in a range between 40 $us/tc and 80 $us/tc
What does the nominal values increase to in 2050?
the nominal values, however, rise quite impressively to a level of more than 500 $us/tc in 2050
What do the nominal values increase to in 2100?
the nominal values, however, rise quite impressively to a level of more than 500 $us/tc in 2050 and even more than 6000 $us/tc in 2100
the overall trade structure changes only slightly compared to the reference development in all regions. however, significant changes occur on the energy resource market and the carbon market. the developed countries use the option of emissions trade and buy permits in considerable amounts. this import, however, is on a value basis hardly visible in the current account. the basis for the current accounts is the present value price of permits which is in a range between 40 $us/tc and 80 $us/tc. the nominal values, however, rise quite impressively to a level of more than 500 $us/tc in 2050 and even more than 6000 $us/tc in 2100.8this indicates a very restrictive carbon
What are the main source of global warming?
carbon dioxide, the main source of global warming, but also methane and nitrous oxide
What is Net zero?
refers to a balance between carbon dioxide emissions and their reabsorption through sinks (e.g. forests) or technologies that extract carbon dioxide from the air
what places face an existential threat from rising sea levels?
low-lying island states
david g. victor and charles f. kennel, 'climate policy: ditch the 2degc warming goal', nature 514: 7520, 2014, pp. 30-31. 5 unep, the emissions gap report 2015: a unep synthesis report (nairobi: unep, nov. 2015). carbon dioxide equivalent describes the global warming potential for a mixture of ghgs, which includes carbon dioxide, the main source of global warming, but also methane and nitrous oxide. 'net zero' emissions refers to a balance between carbon dioxide emissions and their reabsorption through sinks (e.g. forests) or technologies that extract carbon dioxide from the air. warming is a uniquely challenging--some might say 'wicked'6--global policy problem. whereas other forms of pollution control require only minor changes to industrial processes, the entire industrial system will need to be reengineered to achieve a decarbonization of the global economy. the good news is that many of the technologies that can bring about this transition to the lowcarbon economy already exist, from renewable energy sources (e.g. solar, wind) to improvements in energy efficiency. some innovations, such as carbon capture and storage, are on the horizon but are yet to be applied on a commercial scale, while others (e.g. high-capacity nanobatteries, synthetic algae) may emerge only after substantial investments. even so, replacing fossil fuels will prove more difficult in some sectors (e.g. air travel) than others, and the world's existing energy, transport and urban infrastructures have already locked in decades of future carbon emissions. despite the potential co-benefits (e.g. improvements in air quality and health) that low-carbon investments are likely to yield,7 the cost of taking carbon out of global production, trade and investment is unprecedented in the history of environmental politics. the political challenges are no less daunting. although all major emitters have made a public commitment to fighting global warming, it has proved difficult to translate this normative engagement into collective action. one facet of the problem is that while climate change mitigation requires considerable investment in the short run, the benefits of stabilizing the global climate will materialize only in the medium to long run. this makes it difficult for governments to justify significant upfront expenditure, particularly given the brevity of electoral cycles. furthermore, climate change does not affect all countries equally. low-lying island states face an existential threat from rising sea levels while others, especially countries near the arctic circle, may experience greater agricultural output and easier access to natural resources as a result of the thawing of permafrost. in any case, the high degree of uncertainty in predicting long-term climate change and the costs and benefits associated with it
What will the physical impacts of climate change on the coastal zone vary by?
location
What do the physical impacts of climate change on the coastal zone depend on?
a range of biophysical and socio-economic factors, including human response
What will appropriate adaptation play a pivotal role in?
reducing the magnitude and extent of potential impacts, thereby decreasing the vulnerability of the coastal zone to climate change
the physical impacts of climate change on the coastal zone will vary by location and depend on a range of biophysical and socio-economic factors, including human response.(50)appropriate adaptation will play a pivotal role in reducing the magnitude and extent of potential impacts, thereby decreasing the vulnerability of the coastal zone to climate change. in many cases, existing techniques and technologies used to deal with past water level changes could also serve as effective adaptations for future climate change. to date, relatively little attention has been given to understanding the motivations for adaptation, and the barriers that may exist to successful adaptation. rather, most of the adaptation literature examines methods used to address changes in water levels. over recent years, three trends have been observed in coastal adaptation and associated technology use: 1) increase in soft protection (e.g., beach nourishment and wetland restoration), retreat and accommodation; 2) reliance on technology, such as geographic information systems, to manage information; and 3) awareness of the need for coastal adaptation that is appropriate for local conditions.(51)
After Phillip developed his thesis what movie he go to for inspiration?
 having developed his thesis, phillips draws on the wizard of oz for inspiration, using the tin man (heart), scarecrow (head), and cowardly lion (hand) as organizing ideas for the body of the book. ''heart'' involves a commitment to addressing a problem, ''head'' refers to the scientific concepts necessary for understanding that problem, and ''hand'' represents the scientific or technical solution to the problem
Who offered the solution to the phrase Sociology holds the key, but sociology, too, is plagued by a stratified or bureaucratic worldview?
sociology holds the key, but sociology, too, is plagued by a stratified or bureaucratic worldview. c. wright mills offered a solution
What university does the author go to?
indiana university, bloomington aralders@indiana.edu reflecting on the arc of the career of c. wright mills, irving howe (1963
indiana university, bloomington aralders@indiana.edu reflecting on the arc of the career of c. wright mills, irving howe (1963) lamented ''the sad truth'' that his one-time friend ''deserved the admirers he won.'' howe was referring to the final, pamphleteering phase of mills' career and to his lionization by characters that howe found unsavory. as the 1960s wore on, mills would, of course, go on to win new legions of admirers for howe to lament. one wonders what howe would make of armageddon or evolution? the reader learns from the preface that the book is one in a series edited by the author entitled, ''advancing the sociological imagination.'' one gathers that bernard phillips heads a sort of mills sect, complete with a manifesto and a web page detailing the history of the group, a biography of mills, and a ''guide to personal evolution.'' this is all rather unusual, but i am sure the author would have it no other way. moving reception of mills firmly into the 1970s, the author takes the charge in the sociological imagination to link ''the most impersonal and remote transformations to the most intimate features of the human self'' (mills 2000:7) to suggest a therapeutic course in which one unlearns the ''stratified or bureaucratic worldview'' that generates ''increasing personal and social problems'' and replaces it with an ''interactive or evolutionary scientific method'' that will yield ''decreasing personal and social problems'' (pp. 16-17). in short, i'm not ok, you're not ok, and the world is certainly not ok, largely for the reasons mills outlined fifty-odd years ago. unless the vision of the scientific method developed in the book is adopted, armageddon awaits. the core argument can be summarized succinctly: developments of the last few centuries have generated a growing gap between aspirations and fulfillment. this gap is rooted in a ''stratified or bureaucratic worldview.'' it produces a host of new wants, but yields a science, reflective of that worldview, that is incapable of satisfying them and generates an array of ever more threatening externalities. the question thus becomes, ''how can we learn to use a broad approach to the scientific method in our everyday lives as a basis for altering our worldview, closing our aspirations-fulfillment gap, and solving personal and social problems'' (p. 53)? sociology holds the key, but sociology, too, is plagued by a stratified or bureaucratic worldview. c. wright mills offered a solution. it lies in application of the ''sociological imagination.'' having developed his thesis, phillips draws on the wizard of oz for inspiration, using the tin man (heart), scarecrow (head), and cowardly lion (hand) as organizing ideas for the body of the book. ''heart'' involves a commitment to addressing a problem, ''head'' refers to the scientific concepts necessary for understanding that problem, and ''hand'' represents the scientific or technical solution to the problem. three
Which entity is this study led by?
this study is one of various projects and activities that span several asian countries, led by the world bank's east asia region
Who is hte primary client for the Kolkata project?
the primary client for the kolkata project is the west bengal department of environment
What is the goal for adaptation measures for Mumbai?
the eventual goal is to identify adaptation measures for mumbai that can reduce the city's vulnerability to future extreme flood events that are expected to become even more frequent and intense due to climate change
this study is one of various projects and activities that span several asian countries, led by the world bank's east asia region. the primary client for the kolkata project is the west bengal department of environment. the city counterparts are the kolkata metropolitan authority and the kolkata municipal corporation. besides, the united nations international strategy for disaster reduction (unisdr) is funding activities taken up to test the applicability of the climate resilience self-assessment methodology developed for the world bank's climate resilient cities primer(27) in south asian cities, specifically mumbai and pune. the work in mumbai, led by iit-mumbai, has thus far included setting up with the municipal corporation of greater mumbai (mcgm) a system to collect data on climate vulnerability, assess municipal officials' awareness and readiness to integrate climate considerations into their ongoing programmes, and start the groundwork for a long-term climate change management system within the mcgm. another study being led by an interdisciplinary team at iit-mumbai, with funding from oecd, aims to establish an understanding of the vulnerability and resilience issues related to floods in the city. the eventual goal is to identify adaptation measures for mumbai that can reduce the city's vulnerability to future extreme flood events that are expected to become even more frequent and intense due to climate change. these are a few examples of the different players present in the urban adaptation space in india. the importance of these efforts lies in that they can be treated as pilots in the sectors where they intervene, can provide a basic database and methodological inputs for replication, and can act as case studies and best practices to be adopted for planning adaptation in other cities. they give direction regarding vulnerability analysis, key stakeholders to be involved and possible entry points at city level, and might show initial benefits. however, they run the risk of losing impact once the project is over or when the allocated funds dry up. a definite institutional arrangement is called for to enable adaptation that is a long term effort weaved into the development process.
Is it possible for climate change to go over a threshold?
there is also the possibility, however small, that the gradual change in climate leads to parts of the climate system exceeding a threshold beyond which they may not be reversed by restoring greenhouse gases to pre-industrial
What are the consequences of human-induced climate change?
the effects of human-induced climate change are likely to be insidious, with a gradual increase over a number of decades in the number and intensity of many climate extremes, including heatwaves, heavy precipitation and coastal flooding
over the last three decades, there has been growing concern that increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases will lead to substantial changes in the earth's climate. in addition to a general increase in temperature, it has been predicted that there will be changes in the geographical distribution, intensity and frequency of extreme events ipcc 2001 ). most of the events considered in this meeting are of a rapid and catastrophic nature--earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, tsunamis and strikes by near-earth objects. in contrast, the effects of human-induced climate change are likely to be insidious, with a gradual increase over a number of decades in the number and intensity of many climate extremes, including heatwaves, heavy precipitation and coastal flooding. this is discussed in the first part of this paper. there is also the possibility, however small, that the gradual change in climate leads to parts of the climate system exceeding a threshold beyond which they may not be reversed by restoring greenhouse gases to pre-industrial
What happens when early diapause is expose to high temperatures?
can deepen the period of dormancy in some instances
What happens when early diapause is expose to lower temperatures?
periods of chilling can also be essential for diapause termination in some species
What has prolonged diapause been associated with?
increased mortality, a lower incidence of mating and lower fecundity
another outcome of warmer autumns and winters could actually be delayed emergence or possibly even sustained diapause and death. exposure to high temperatures during early diapause can deepen the period of dormancy in some instances, with insects requiring longer periods and/or different temperature conditions to complete diapause development (danks, 1978; han and bauce, 1998). as well as enhancing cold tolerance within diapause, periods of chilling can also be essential for diapause termination in some species (tauber et al., 1986). for insects requiring a chilling stimulus to terminate dormancy, diapause duration is again temperature dependent, being shortest at the optimal temperature and longer under either higher or lower temperatures. thus, in the northern grasshopper melanoplus borealis (fieber), if a chilling cue is not received individuals may emerge late or not at all (fielding, 2008). there are also examples of butterflies where the vernal development has been delayed despite warmer springs (roy and sparks, 2000). clearly, any change in spring emergence could result in a loss of synchrony with the environment. prolonged diapause has also been associated with increased mortality, a lower incidence of mating and lower fecundity (denlinger, 1981).
What is the main subject of the text?
reduction of the emission of biomass burning ghg and aerosol to the atmosphere
What should the choice of fire management procedures be based on?
the choice of fire management procedures should rely on a sound understanding of the fire history of the biome, and should have contingency for the occurrence of severe fire weather
What can be seen as a second significant challenge?
the provision of good data on which to base sound advice, policy and projections can be seen as a second significant challenge
reduction of the emission of biomass burning ghg and aerosol to the atmosphere faces a number of challenges. the first concerns the distinction between fires for ecosystem service delivery (e.g., maintenance of many plant and animal communities in savanna ecosystems) and fires that are deliberately lit to serve human purposes (e.g., land use change or fire management). naturally lit fires can be intense sources of emissions, and while fire management activities such as controlled burning and fire suppression are aimed at reducing the severity and frequency of these burns, the present discussion has highlighted the absolute importance of the appropriate methods being used in different biomes. the choice of fire management procedures should rely on a sound understanding of the fire history of the biome, and should have contingency for the occurrence of severe fire weather. consequently the effectiveness of any fire management policy can only be gauged if the correct tools are available to assess metrics of success. similarly the control of emissions from deliberately lit fires can only be achieved by good advice based on good data. in particular for a developing nation to participate in global emission reduction schemes they need to be able to account for their emissions. it is the role of the scientific community to work towards the development and provision of the tools required to do this. the provision of good data on which to base sound advice, policy and projections can be seen as a second significant challenge. the actions required to develop the tools and data required to provide advice for fire management and emission reduction include the following: * improvement in the spatial and temporal resolution of burned area products derived from satellite observations so that smaller fires of shorter duration can be accurately mapped. this may be achieved by a hybrid of fire counts and burned area products from polar satellites and fire activity from geostationary satellites. * routine use of new algorithms that quantify fire radiative power from satellite data will reduce uncertainties in emission estimates attributable to uncertainties in fuel loads and combustion efficiency. * verification and validation of satellite products and the understanding of inconsistencies between products from different satellites and between biogeochemical models in the determination of emission estimates are required. quantifying the seasonality of efs is a research priority. verification of a bottom-up inventory model structure and parameters will lend confidence to the model predictions; however, independent validation with tools such as inverse modeling is required to consolidate emission estimates.
High-latitude, temperate pelagic ecosystems may be particularly vulnerable to what?
temperate and high-latitude pelagic ecosystems may be particularly vulnerable to phenological changes caused by climatic warming
The success of recruiting higher trophic levels is highly dependent on what?
recruitment success of higher trophic levels is highly dependant on synchronization with seasonally pulsed primary production and the response to regional warming varies among functional groups
Changes in copepod reproduction time and seasonal growth patterns also have ramifications for what?
shifts in timing of copepod reproduction and seasonal growth patterns also have ramifications for the seasonal timing of energy-rich lipids available to higher trophic levels
temperate and high-latitude pelagic ecosystems may be particularly vulnerable to phenological changes caused by climatic warming. recruitment success of higher trophic levels is highly dependant on synchronization with seasonally pulsed primary production and the response to regional warming varies among functional groups. changes in any of these can lead to mismatch in timing between trophic levels edwards and richardson, 2004 ). for example, the changes in the north sea planktonic assemblage and copepod phenology were correlated with warming of the north sea over the last few decades, and have resulted in a poor food environment for cod larvae and hence an eventual decline in overall recruitment success (beaugrand et al 2003). similar evidence linking plankton phenology and higher trophic levels has been found elsewhere, e.g. phenology of shrimps and phytoplankton in the north atlantic koeller et al ., 2009 and seasonality of zooplankton abundance and energy propagation up to fish and seabird predators in the northeast pacific mackas et al ., 2007 ). for some copepod species like calanus glacialis in the arctic, a match between its reproductive cycle with two algal blooms is probably necessary for a successful population development: an ice algal bloom to fuel females' early maturation and reproduction, and a subsequent phytoplankton bloom to support a fast development of their offspring soreide et al ., 2010 ). in this sense, the phenological mismatch between two trophic levels can be more important than phenological variability of individual species, leading to the concept of relative phenological shift that uses the phenology of the lower trophic level (or food) as a "yard-stick" against which phenological shifts of higher trophic levels can be measured visser and both, 2005 ). shifts in timing of copepod reproduction and seasonal growth patterns also have ramifications for the seasonal timing of energy-rich lipids available to higher trophic levels. the energy content and timing of availability of copepodite stage cv for forage fish in coastal feeding areas depends in large part on environmental factors (food and temperature) that determine lipid accumulation rates. the actual accumulation rate in forage fish also depends on the seasonal light field needed for visual feeding, which may mitigate or exaggerate phenological shifts in copepod prey availability varpe and fiksen, 2010 ). long-term climate warming may lead to dramatic reduction in abundance of lipid-rich copepod species in ecosystems at the southern edge of the range of subarctic calanus species, with no identifiable prospects for replacement beaugrand, 2009 kattner and hagen, 2009 ). such scenarios can be explored with new modeling tools that couple life histories and lipid content to physical circulation and hydrographic models as well as ecophysiological nichebased models as the skill of these models improves.
What may be involved in maintaining beta-diversity?
both individualistic and interactive factors may be involved in maintaining beta-diversity
What may be the reason for differences in species richness and composition among localities within a landscape and among landscapes?
differences in species richness and composition among localities within a landscape and among landscapes may be due to species interactions as well as the interaction of each species with the abiotic environment
What can affect species distributions?
environmental heterogeneity in the form of spatial variation in habitat and local climate can affect species distributions
both individualistic and interactive factors may be involved in maintaining beta-diversity. that is, differences in species richness and composition among localities within a landscape and among landscapes may be due to species interactions as well as the interaction of each species with the abiotic environment. environmental heterogeneity in the form of spatial variation in habitat and local climate can affect species distributions and hence influence beta-diversity. there are many studies of the effects of habitat and climate heterogeneity on species diversity, particularly with respect to explaining the latitudinal gradient of species diversity and other continental-scale patterns (wright, 1983; currie, 1991; kerr packer, 1997; hawkins
What is the best measure to control contamination of a water body by pathogenic organisms from sewage?
the best measure to control contamination of a water body by pathogenic organisms from sewage is through their removal at the wastewater treatment stage
What is the waste water treatment process usually insufficient for?
the wastewater treatment processes usually applied are very efficient in the removal of suspended solids and organic matter, but generally insufficient for the removal of pathogenic microorganisms
What are not well represented by coliforms?
protozoan cysts and helminth eggs
the best measure to control contamination of a water body by pathogenic organisms from sewage is through their removal at the wastewater treatment stage. however, this approach is not practised throughout the world. in various countries there is systematic disinfection of the sewage treatment effluent, while in others disinfection is only carried out in the potable water treatment. however, in any case, approaches that preserve the defined uses of the water body should be adopted. the wastewater treatment processes usually applied are very efficient in the removal of suspended solids and organic matter, but generally insufficient for the removal of pathogenic microorganisms. in spite of the great importance of this item in developing countries, it has not yet received due consideration. table 4.9 in chapter 4 lists the coliform removal efficiencies obtained in the main wastewater treatment systems. it should be always remembered that the coliforms are not a direct indication of the presence of pathogens, and they may represent only those organisms that have similar decay (or removal) mechanisms and similar (or higher) mortality rates. protozoan cysts and helminth eggs are removed by different mechanisms (e.g. sedimentation) and are not well represented by coliforms. even though removal efficiencies of 90% shown in table 4.9 may seem high, it should be borne in mind that, when dealing with coliforms, much higher efficiencies are generally necessary in order to have low concentrations in the water body, as a result of the very high concentrations in the raw sewage. high coliform removal efficiencies can be obtained by the processes listed in table 3.10, which are further detailed in chapter 4. the processes listed above are capable of reaching coliform removal efficiencies of 99.99% or more. frequently the coliform removal efficiency is expressed in a logarithmic scale, according to:
What does the second term on the right-hand side account for?
the second term on the right-hand side, as noted already, accounts for the steric effect of density changes within a fluid column
In which fluid is the second term on the right-hand side absent in?
this term is absent in the boussinesq fluid
What is the  mathematical notation introduced in Section 3 used to describe?
section 3.2 started by introducing some mathematical notation and results of use to describe the motion of a fluid parcel on a rotating planet with spherical geometry
this expression says that projection of the surface velocity onto the surface orientation direction is balanced by convergence of vertically integrated momentum per volume and the depth integrated time tendencies in the seawater density. the second term on the right-hand side, as noted already, accounts for the steric effect of density changes within a fluid column, and this term is absent in the boussinesq fluid. 3.5 chapter summary we focused in this chapter on fluid kinematics as applied to the ocean. section 3.2 started by introducing some mathematical notation and results of use to describe the motion of a fluid parcel on a rotating planet with spherical geometry. in particular, figure 3.1 is worth a periodic revisit as it provides a useful orientation for the various formulations, especially those in chapter 4. additionally, the "commanotation" of section 3.2.4 should be highlighted here, whereby a useful shorthand for the partial derivative is written [?] r
Define ethics framework?
by combining an applied ethics framework with the details of proposed policies, we discussed the justice implications of explicit distribution rules and the potential results of their interactions with assumptions about the nature of the problem and metrics of measurement
How the polices divided?
policies were divided into three general categories - each of which suggests potential outcomes for distributive justice
Describe the policies in detail?
the first, equitable division of the burden of climate policy focuses on the technical and financial aspects of the climate problem. it builds on the notion of economically optimal global solutions, but presents risks to those already vulnerable and to those dependent on non-substitutable resources. these policies aim to create cost-effective mitigation rather than reducing disparity in resource distribution or human well-being. in fact, depending on technological development and diffusion, these policies could exacerbate global inequalities
by combining an applied ethics framework with the details of proposed policies, we discussed the justice implications of explicit distribution rules and the potential results of their interactions with assumptions about the nature of the problem and metrics of measurement. policies were divided into three general categories - each of which suggests potential outcomes for distributive justice. the first, equitable division of the burden of climate policy focuses on the technical and financial aspects of the climate problem. it builds on the notion of economically optimal global solutions, but presents risks to those already vulnerable and to those dependent on non-substitutable resources. these policies aim to create cost-effective mitigation rather than reducing disparity in resource distribution or human well-being. in fact, depending on technological development and diffusion, these policies could exacerbate global inequalities (dowlatabadi and lave, 1993).
For each question, what is score obtained?
for each question, the marginal score was obtained
What is the options that I must tell you?
as i read each one, please tell me if you personally worry about this problem a great deal, a fair amount, only a little, or not at all
What did 26% of the respondents said?
here, 26% of the respondents said they worried " a great deal
for each question, the marginal score was obtained. for example, consider the response to q12 (see supplementary material in the gallup survey conducted in march 2004: " i ' m going to read you a list of environmental problems. as i read each one, please tell me if you personally worry about this problem a great deal, a fair amount, only a little, or not at all. first, how much do you personally worry about ... the greenhouse effect ' or global warming? " here, 26% of the respondents said they worried " a great deal. " in march 2007, 41% of
What did the results of this study indicate?
the results of this study indicated that racial differences in the perception of gcc are more likely mediated by perceptions of the academic as opposed to racial climate
What were the findings of the study?
replicating previous findings, results of this study showed that racial minority students evaluated the general campus, racial, and academic climates of their university more negatively than did white students
What was counter to prediction?
counter to prediction, academic climate better predicted perceptions of gcc than racial climate for the members of all undergraduate and graduate racial groups
the results of this study indicated that racial differences in the perception of gcc are more likely mediated by perceptions of the academic as opposed to racial climate. replicating previous findings, results of this study showed that racial minority students evaluated the general campus, racial, and academic climates of their university more negatively than did white students. counter to prediction, academic climate better predicted perceptions of gcc than racial climate for the members of all undergraduate and graduate racial groups. further, followup analyses suggested that students' perceptions of the academic and racial climates served as better indicators of a student's university experience than their race. findings are discussed in relation to climate as a construct that explains how the fact of a student's race becomes a factor in his or her experience. race matters the results of the present research support the contention by west (1994) that race continues to matter on college campuses in a number of unexpected ways. the perception of academic climate was a better predictor of gcc than either a student's perception of the racial climate or the student's race. race mattered most as a proxy for negative--ostensibly nonracial--academic experiences. this was counterintuitive given previous findings that a student's race was
How were the changes in the PDSI observed?
the presence of any long-term changes in the observed pdsi was assessed using a trend analysis
At what time scale is the PDSI-T filtered?
pdsi-t was filtered so as to retain information for time scales greater than 8 yr
Where does the greatest drying occur in the OBS?
the greatest drying in the obs is in the sahel, southern africa, and eastern asia with regions of wetting in the united states, central africa, western australia, and central asia (dai et al. 2004
the presence of any long-term changes in the observed pdsi was assessed using a trend analysis. pdsi-t was filtered so as to retain information for time scales greater than 8 yr. figure 3 shows the spatial patterns generated following a point-by-point trend analysis of pdsi-t for the present day. there are areas of both drying and wetting but with an overall global drying. the greatest drying in the obs is in the sahel, southern africa, and eastern asia with regions of wetting in the united states, central africa, western australia, and central asia (dai et al. 2004). all-a captures many of these features (fig. 3b) but with some areas of disagreement, including south america (too dry), europe (too wet), and central-eastern australia (too dry). consequently the area-weighted spatial correlation with obs is 0.35. on a regional basis the
What three aspects has past research on the climate response to orbital forcing emphasized?
past research on the climate response to orbital forcing has emphasized the glacial-interglacial variations in global ice volume, global-mean temperature, and the global hydrologic cycle
Name two areas the researchers performed experiments in to explore whether or not the focus of past research was inappropriate for the tropics.
to illustrate this point, we use an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a slab ocean model, performing experiments that quantify the tropical climate's response to (1) opposite phases of precessional forcing, and (2) last glacial maximum boundary conditions
Why do the model results illustrate the impossibility of predicting the local hydrologic response to external forcing without understanding the response at much larger spatial scales?
because of strong dynamical linkages in the tropics, the model results illustrate the impossibility of predicting the local hydrologic response to external forcing without understanding the response at much larger spatial scales
past research on the climate response to orbital forcing has emphasized the glacial-interglacial variations in global ice volume, global-mean temperature, and the global hydrologic cycle. this emphasis may be inappropriate in the tropics, where the response to precessional forcing is likely to be somewhat independent of the glacial-interglacial variations, particularly in variables relating to the hydrologic cycle. to illustrate this point, we use an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a slab ocean model, performing experiments that quantify the tropical climate's response to (1) opposite phases of precessional forcing, and (2) last glacial maximum boundary conditions. while the glacially-forced tropical temperature changes are typically more than an order of magnitude larger than those arising from precessional forcing, the hydrologic signals stemming from the two forcings are comparable in magnitude. the mechanisms behind these signals are investigated and shown to be quite distinct for the precessional and glacial forcing. because of strong dynamical linkages in the tropics, the model results illustrate the impossibility of predicting the local hydrologic response to external forcing without understanding the response at much larger spatial scales. examples from the paleoclimate record are presented as additional evidence for the importance of precessional signals in past variations of the tropical climate.
Describe the methodology for probabilistic prediction?
probabilistic prediction of time-dependent future climate change at regional scales, through ensembles of simulations designed to quantify the effects of uncertainties in climate system processes
How methodology for probabilistic prediction can be achieved?
this is achieved using a systematic approach in which ensemble members sample multiple perturbations to poorly constrained parameters in various configurations of the hadcm3 coupled ocean-atmosphere gcm
Who quantifies the effects of uncertainties?
a large ensemble of (currently) approximately 300 members quantifies the effects of uncertainties in surface and atmospheric processes on the equilibrium response to doubled co2. this is augmented by a series of smaller (17 member) ensembles of historical and future time-dependent changes (in progress), exploring uncertainties in atmospheric, oceanic, sulphur cycle and terrestrial ecosystem processes, respectively
we have described a methodology for probabilistic prediction of time-dependent future climate change at regional scales, through ensembles of simulations designed to quantify the effects of uncertainties in climate system processes. this is achieved using a systematic approach in which ensemble members sample multiple perturbations to poorly constrained parameters in various configurations of the hadcm3 coupled ocean-atmosphere gcm. a large ensemble of (currently) approximately 300 members quantifies the effects of uncertainties in surface and atmospheric processes on the equilibrium response to doubled co2. this is augmented by a series of smaller (17 member) ensembles of historical and future time-dependent changes (in progress), exploring uncertainties in atmospheric, oceanic, sulphur cycle and terrestrial ecosystem processes, respectively. a further ensemble is planned in which uncertain parameters in all these modules are perturbed simultaneously, in order to estimate the effects of nonlinear interactions between feedbacks in different earth system components. this set of experiments samples uncertainties in the feedback processes most likely to exert a major influence on climate change during the twenty-first century.
Was the warm bias in CM3 higher or lower, with respect to the warm bias in CM2.1?
the reduced southern ocean bias in am3 and cm3 atmospheric radiation (see fig. 3) results in a reduction in the southern ocean warm bias in cm3 relative to cm2.1
Why is the reduction of warm bias in CM3, with respect to CM2.1, lower than one may expect due to the changes in shortwave heating?
the reason relates to the warmth built into the cm3 initial conditions
Through which regions does the increased heat built into the CM3 initial conditions penetrate into the deep ocean?
his heat penetrates to the deep ocean predominantly through the north atlantic deepwater formation regions
the reduced southern ocean bias in am3 and cm3 atmospheric radiation (see fig. 3) results in a reduction in the southern ocean warm bias in cm3 relative to cm2.1 (fig. 2). however, reduction in southern ocean sst warm biases are not as dramatic as may be expected based on the changes in shortwave heating. the reason relates to the warmth built into the cm3 initial conditions (section 1a). this heat penetrates to the deep ocean predominantly through the north atlantic deepwater formation regions and it is transported southward with the overturning circulation (see fig. 14 discussed in section 3a). by 1981 of the historical experiments, this
how was the spectral aerosol direct radiative forcing compared?
the observed spectral aerosol direct radiative forcing was compared, using relative forcing efficiency, to direct radiative forcing from other field missions in different parts of the world
for what purpose were the P-3 data used?
langridge et al. 2012] used p-3 data to track the evolution of aerosol radiative properties during transport within and downwind of the los angeles basin
leblanc et al. 2012] used spectral irradiance measurements taken on board the p-3 above and below an aerosol layer to determine the aerosol direct radiative forcing. the observed spectral aerosol direct radiative forcing was compared, using relative forcing efficiency, to direct radiative forcing from other field missions in different parts of the world. the calnex relative forcing efficiency spectra agreed with earlier studies that found this parameter to be constrained at each wavelength within 20% per unit of aerosol optical thickness at 500 nm, and was found to be independent of aerosol type and location. the diurnally averaged below-layer forcing integrated over the wavelength range of 350-700 nm for calnex was estimated to be 59+-14 w/m2 of cooling at the surface per unit optical depth. langridge et al. 2012] used p-3 data to track the evolution of aerosol radiative properties during transport within and downwind of the los angeles basin. they documented that changes in aerosol hygroscopicity, secondary organic carbon content, and ammonium nitrate mass occurring during transport over the time scale of hours had significant effects on the aerosol extinction. they noted the implications these changes in radiative forcing due to semi-volatile aerosol constituents would have for accurate representation in large-scale climate models. x zhang et al. 2011b] analyzed wsoc aerosol data from the pasadena ground site to show that nitroaromatics contribute significantly to the brown soa in los angeles. they use aerosol radiocarbon (14c) measurements to conclude that anthropogenic carbon dominated the aerosol budget in los angeles, in contrast to measurements in atlanta, ga showing a minimal anthropogenic component to the water-soluble soa.
What led the drivers to protest on the street?
the rapid rise in petrol prices in 2007 and 2008
What thieves had stolen from Eddie Cowpe's farm?
thieves had stolen the 100 000 litres of diesel
What other theft have been reported in gardens?
yet another widely reported problem has been the theft of heating oil from tanks in gardens
the rapid rise in petrol prices in 2007 and 2008 led to a range of protests by drivers on the streets. in britain another impact of soaring energy prices was the systematic stealing of petrol and farm diesel. eddie cowpe woke up one morning on his lancashire farm to find that thieves had stolen the 100 000 litres of diesel stored in his farm tank, leaving him with a fuel and cleanup bill for over ps 70 000. many other farmers have suffered similar thefts around the country and a parallel rising problem at fuel stations is the problem of ' drive-offs ' the number of people who drove off from a petrol station without paying rose by 13.5% from 2007 to 2008 at a cost to suppliers of over ps 32.5 million. yet another widely reported problem has been the theft of heating oil from tanks in gardens. just as with water, when resources become scarce or expensive they will increasingly become the target of illegal or violent protest or action. when the number of fuel poor in scotland rises from 20% to 40% or 50% then questions will be asked about whether people are still willing to more free ebooks http://fast-file.blogspot.com
How do geographers use historical analogues of climatic extremes?
geographers are accustomed to using historical analogues of climate extremes to improve the understanding of who is vulnerable and why, and who responds how to which set of circumstances
Have many or few works of this type been carried out?
little work of this sort, however, has been undertaken in the us to support adaptation planning or to increase regional resilience moser, 2009a, 2008b
geographers are accustomed to using historical analogues of climate extremes to improve the understanding of who is vulnerable and why, and who responds how to which set of circumstances. little work of this sort, however, has been undertaken in the us to support adaptation planning or to increase regional resilience moser, 2009a, 2008b ). for example, what happens when numerous communities or regions are affected at once bya series of coastal storms? how do communities deal with situations when firefighting resources are stretched thin during times with great numbers of wildfires across a state? who suffers, who collaborates, who fights, who wins, and who goes dry when most of a region is in a drought? what mechanisms do affected entities employ to deal with widespread stress? studies investigating such cases-i.e., the withinsector, across-region (or horizontal) connections, sometimes over significant distances (''teleconnections'' not just in the physical, but also the socio-economic sense, see adger, eakin, winkels, 2009 )-can ground assessments of different adaptation options in empirical reality, unearth potential conflict situations, and offer opportunities to address them preemptively.
what does Update Internal Policies indicates?
update internal policies indicates a perceived need for more internal agency guidance, policy change, or a new management paradigm to support adaptation
what does Judicious Approach indicate?
judicious approach indicates a perceived need to ensure any policy changes are well thought out and based on sound science. update partner polices indicates a perceived need to change federal partners' traditional management approaches and policies to be more supportive of adaptation
what does Working Across Jurisdictions indicate?
working across jurisdictions indicates a perceived need to work with partner agencies across jurisdictions and manage at a broader spatial scale
fig. 5 interviewee responses regarding overcoming barriers to implementation. note: responses were coded into 10 categories. update internal policies indicates a perceived need for note: responses were coded into 10 categories. update internal policies indicates a perceived need for more internal agency guidance, policy change, or a new management paradigm to support adaptation. public education and dialogue indicates a perceived need to engage the public and cultivate public support for adaptation. change laws indicates a perceived need for congress to modify an existing law, or pass a new law to provide more policy direction for adaptation. working across jurisdictions indicates a perceived need to work with partner agencies across jurisdictions and manage at a broader spatial scale. monitoring and adaptive management indicates a perceived need for utilizing these methods to understand how natural resources are changing and may be affected by climate change. information (e.g., predictive models), funding and time indicate a perceived need for these types of resources in order to implement more climate change adaptation projects in the future. judicious approach indicates a perceived need to ensure any policy changes are well thought out and based on sound science. update partner polices indicates a perceived need to change federal partners' traditional management approaches and policies to be more supportive of adaptation. time and expense trying to "bullet-proof" project plans through extensive analysis and documentation, even for small projects (united states forest service 2002). hence, nepa may become a barrier in the future, even though the respondents perceived it to be a potential enabler. respondents described a high potential for the esa to hinder adaptation given its focus on singlespecies management to recover threatened or endangered species in specific habitats and geographic areas. they believed that this approach contradicts adaptation's emphasis on dynamic management of ecosystem processes and recognition that it may not be possible to sustain all species in their current ranges under a changing climate. respondents also noted tensions between shortand long-term species protection and limited ability to actively manage in areas designated as critical habitat or containing nesting sites. for example, respondents in the okanogan-wenatchee national forest identified a potential conflict with forest thinning restrictions in northern spotted owl strix occidentalis caurina critical habitat. while nesting sites may be protected in the short-term, they may face long-term risks given the projected increase in frequency and severity of fire east of the cascade mountains due to climate change. in all three national parks, one or more respondents identified examples of road repair or relocation projects made necessary by an increased frequency and severity of flooding linked to climate change. the projects may adversely affect designated critical habitat of threatened species like the
the ND2 gene was available for how much
gene was available for 78 taxa
the ancestral svl of liolaemidae was estimated by using linear generalized least squares (as for diet). branch-length information from the nd2 gene was available for 78 taxa for which svls were also available and was estimated as described above. the reconstructed ancestral svl is 82.7  37.6 mm (range among alternate trees 82.6-82.7  37.5-37.7 mm). although the ses for these and several other reconstructions are high, simulation studies suggest that the estimates of error for ancestral-trait reconstructions may be inappropriately high, even when the reconstructions are accurate (47). an analysis including 11 additional taxa for which nd2 data were not available (assuming equal branch lengths for all taxa) estimates an ancestral svl of 79.9  11.6 mm (range among alternative trees 79.2-80.0  11.4-11.6 mm).
What are the two carbon pools in soils?
one of these is composed of carbon compounds such as polysaccharides that are readily used by microorganisms as energy sources, and the other is made up of carbon compounds such as those with aromatic ring structures that are much more difficult for microbes to use
What is the decay rate of the first reservoir sensitive to?
the decay rate of the first pool is very temperature-sensitive
What is the result of the warming over the ten-year observation period?
we estimate that over the entire 10-year study period, warming resulted in a cumulative increase in net nitrogen mineralization of 41 g m 2
the relatively small and ephemeral loss of soil carbon we observed in response to a decade of warming is consistent with the prediction that these soils contain at least two pools of carbon that have different susceptibilities to microbial attack 12 13 ). one of these is composed of carbon compounds such as polysaccharides that are readily used by microorganisms as energy sources, and the other is made up of carbon compounds such as those with aromatic ring structures that are much more difficult for microbes to use. the decay rate of the first pool is very temperature-sensitive, whereas the decay rate of the second pool is not. using standard methods, we also measured the rates of net nitrogen mineralization, nitrogen leaching, and gaseous nitrogen (nitrous oxide) loss 14 ). soil warming increased net nitrogen mineralization (fig. 3a) but had no effect on either gaseous nitrogen losses or leaching of inorganic and organic nitrogen 15 ). the increases in net nitrogen mineralization were largest in the early years of the study (fig. 3b). we estimate that over the entire 10-year study period, warming resulted in a cumulative increase in net nitrogen mineralization of 41 g m 2. how does this increase in nitrogen mineralization affect the ecosystem's capacity to store carbon? we can begin to address this question by using the results of our long-term nitrogen fertilization study at the harvard forest. in that study, we have been adding almost 5 g of nitrogen m 2year 1
Define Climate
consider now how an external shock, like those associated with climate change impacts, affects economic growth. if the shock is a negative one, a decrease in regional gdp proportionally lowers both savings and investments. any difference between these two variables, which amounts to a change in foreign debt stock and trade balance, must then be associated with changing relative returns on capital, according to (1). most (but not all) negative effects
What are the negative effects undefined?
imply an higher relative scarcity of capital, thereby increasing returns. in this case, the shock is partially absorbed by running a foreign debt, which must eventually be repaid. if the negative shock would last one or few periods, this mechanism amounts to spreading the negative shock over a longer interval, allowing a smoother adjustment in the regional economy
What is the comparison of growth paths for the economy undefined?
macroeconomic variables (like gdp) will progressively diverge (positively or negatively). on the other hand, if the two effects are opposite, the direct effect would prevail at first, then the capital accumulation will eventually drive the economic growth, possibly inverting the sign of the total effects. 3. modelling climate change impacts earlier studies (berritella et al., 2006; bosello et al., 2006; bosello et al., 2007; bosello and zhang, 2006) have used cge models to assess the economic implications of climate change impacts. simulations are performed by identifying the relevant economic variables, and imposing changes in some model parameters, like
consider now how an external shock, like those associated with climate change impacts, affects economic growth. if the shock is a negative one, a decrease in regional gdp proportionally lowers both savings and investments. any difference between these two variables, which amounts to a change in foreign debt stock and trade balance, must then be associated with changing relative returns on capital, according to (1). most (but not all) negative effects of climate change (losses of capital, land, natural resources, or lower labour productivity) imply an higher relative scarcity of capital, thereby increasing returns. in this case, the shock is partially absorbed by running a foreign debt, which must eventually be repaid. if the negative shock would last one or few periods, this mechanism amounts to spreading the negative shock over a longer interval, allowing a smoother adjustment in the regional economy. however, climate change impacts typically increase over time, so the foreign debt or credit tends to constantly rise, introducing some kind of delay in the response to shocks in the regional economies. since the shocks we are applying in the model rise in magnitude over time, if an economy starts attracting foreign investments, it will continue to do so over all the subsequent years, and vice versa. therefore, the capital accumulation process tends to make this economy growing at higher rates, in comparison with the baseline, in which climate change impacts are absent. a comparison of growth paths for this economy, with and without climate change, would then highlight (nonlinearly) divergent paths. this dynamic effect overlaps with the direct impacts of climate change. the direct impacts would make each regional economy growing faster or lower, in a linear fashion. the difference between the two scenarios is shaped by this overlapping. if direct and indirect effects work to the same direction, macroeconomic variables (like gdp) will progressively diverge (positively or negatively). on the other hand, if the two effects are opposite, the direct effect would prevail at first, then the capital accumulation will eventually drive the economic growth, possibly inverting the sign of the total effects. 3. modelling climate change impacts earlier studies (berritella et al., 2006; bosello et al., 2006; bosello et al., 2007; bosello and zhang, 2006) have used cge models to assess the economic implications of climate change impacts. simulations are performed by identifying the relevant economic variables, and imposing changes in some model parameters, like:
What is a key issue in health impacts as the greatest burden of climate-sensitive diseases is in low-income countries?
the 'adaptation deficit' is therefore a key issue in health impacts as the greatest burden of climate-sensitive diseases is in low-income countries
The WHO established its Commission on Macroeconomics and Health to provide evidence of what?
the who established its commission on macroeconomics and health to provide the evidence that poor health impedes economic development (sachs, 2001
the current burden of climate-sensitive disease is high (ezzati et al., 2005; mills and shillcutt, 2004). the 'adaptation deficit' is therefore a key issue in health impacts as the greatest burden of climate-sensitive diseases is in low-income countries. the current 'level of health service provision' is inadequate in many countries. the target levels of provision are either seen as what is feasible (e.g. millennium development goals) or what is ideal (e.g. health for all). as well as the moral arguments for improving health, there are also economic ones. the who established its commission on macroeconomics and health to provide the evidence that poor health impedes economic development (sachs, 2001). despite recent improvements in bilateral aid, the development of targeted programmes (e.g. roll back malaria) and the new philanthropic ventures (the global fund, bill and melinda gates foundation), many countries still lack the investment needed to achieve the health-related millennium development goals (mills and shillcutt, 2004).
What is a climate convention mentioned in this paper that list possible adaptation measures?
first national communications to the climate convention and many independent climate studies list possible adaptation measures
What can the World Bank direct attention to in order to facilitate the management of climate risks?
in its dialogue with national governments, especially the central agencies of finance and planning, as well as in its own country assistance strategy and poverty reduction strategy papers, the bank can direct attention to the need for policy reform to facilitate the management of climate risks and the use of climate opportunities
What are the possible reasons for many countries to focus on adaptation measures?
there may be several reasons for this focus on measures, including the expectation that stand-alone measures could more easily be funded from upcoming adaptation funds, and the complexities of addressing policy issues (in terms of both analysis and political process
in considering adaptation, many countries have given a great deal of attention to the identification of possible adaptation measures first national communications to the climate convention and many independent climate studies list possible adaptation measures, but make no effort to show how they relate to existing policy in many instances it seems likely that policies are in place that discourage sound adaptation or serve to increase vulnerability. there may be several reasons for this focus on measures, including the expectation that stand-alone measures could more easily be funded from upcoming adaptation funds, and the complexities of addressing policy issues (in terms of both analysis and political process). there are without question a number of instances in which the choice of adaptation measures is virtually self-evident, and these should be supported without delay. however, in the overwhelming majority of cases, the selection and design of effective adaptation strategies and measures depends upon the policy context. the world bank is in a strong position to facilitate consideration of the policy aspects of climate change adaptation. in its dialogue with national governments, especially the central agencies of finance and planning, as well as in its own country assistance strategy and poverty reduction strategy papers, the bank can direct attention to the need for policy reform to facilitate the management of climate risks and the use of climate opportunities. it is suggested that this would be part of a bank approach as outlined in section 3.
How were Brazi's poor rural families' lives improved?
oor rural families' incomes and livelihoods would be improved by: (i) support for government efforts to integrate environmental and social sustainability into development and poverty reduction strategies; (ii) enhanced local governance and community participation in decision-making; (iii) reversed land degradation and better protection of natural resources; and (iv) improvements to income-generating opportunities and living conditions for the rural poor
What climate risks does Brazil face?
country susceptible to climate risks; floods, droughts, among others related to el nino, which would also be affected by climate change
How can knowledge about climate change benefit the poor of Brazil?
better information about risks and risk reduction options could be incorporated in the formulation of development and poverty reduction strategies, feed into local decision-making processes, and improve project components to reverse land degradation and protect natural resources
example 3: brazil natural resources management and poverty reduction project objective reduce rural poverty, while improving natural resources management. poor rural families' incomes and livelihoods would be improved by: (i) support for government efforts to integrate environmental and social sustainability into development and poverty reduction strategies; (ii) enhanced local governance and community participation in decision-making; (iii) reversed land degradation and better protection of natural resources; and (iv) improvements to income-generating opportunities and living conditions for the rural poor. climate risk screening: country susceptible to climate risks; floods, droughts, among others related to el nino, which would also be affected by climate change. no direct risks to the project as a whole, but some components could require risk assessment. some positive effects on external vulnerability. explicitly incorporating climate risks could add to the benefits of the project. hence, category 2: moderate/partial risk: selective climate risk/benefit assessment proposed. better information about risks and risk reduction options could be incorporated in the formulation of development and poverty reduction strategies, feed into local decision-making processes, and improve project components to reverse land degradation and protect natural resources. example 4: lesotho - highlands water project (phase ib) objectives (a) to put in place the physical and managerial capacity for lesotho to transform its principal natural resource of abundance water into export revenues that can be applied to poverty reduction and economic stability while (i) protecting the environment and mitigating any adverse social and environmental impacts and (ii) maximizing the local development spin-offs of the project in lesotho; and (b) to assist south africa in developing its lowest cost alternatives for supply of water to the gauteng region. climate risk screening: country is susceptible to climate risks. erratic rainfall, poor soils, and worsening land degradation in the face of rapid population growth and big livestock herds, compounded by institutional problems. climate change could result in higher temperatures, shifts in rainfall, possibly shorter growing seasons, heavier snowfall and extreme events (source: lesotho national communication to the unfccc) many project components at high risk from climate change. many project components could indirectly affect vulnerability to climate risks hence: category 1: high risk: full climate risk assessment needed for entire project.
What are the main climate change impacts considered in studies?
the main impacts considered in the studies reviewed are those related to flooding (primarily from sea level rise and storm surge, and to a lesser extent river and intra-urban flooding), public health from heat extremes, and in more recent studies water resource availability and energy demand
Do climate studies in developed countries only look at one sector?
in developed countries, there are now examples where city authorities have undertaken multi-sectoral analysis of potential climate change impacts
Do adaptation measures have an impact on current climate sensitivity?
this pattern is important in determining economically effective adaptation, recognising that an effective adaptation measure to future climate change may also reduce vulnerability with respect to current climate variability (fankhauser, 2006
in developed countries, there are now examples where city authorities have undertaken multi-sectoral analysis of potential climate change impacts. the main impacts considered in the studies reviewed are those related to flooding (primarily from sea level rise and storm surge, and to a lesser extent river and intra-urban flooding), public health from heat extremes, and in more recent studies water resource availability and energy demand. the focus on these impact categories also reflects the areas where public infrastructure is currently under most pressure from socio-economic development. it also reflects areas where there is greatest sensitivity to current climate variability. this pattern is important in determining economically effective adaptation, recognising that an effective adaptation measure to future climate change may also reduce vulnerability with respect to current climate variability (fankhauser, 2006). use of data relating to historical extreme weather events, and their changing frequencies under climate futures, are increasingly used to quantify these risks.
How are the retrievals can be categorized?
the retrievals are categorized as either passive nadir-viewing or radar/limb sounding
What does this distinction do?
this distinction conveys a sense of their capabilities to account for vertical structure, namely in terms of being able to deal less ambiguously with multiple cloud levels and/or mixed-phase clouds
What is the focus of the research?
this study mainly focuses on the new capabilities and the associated uncertainties of the cloudsat and mls retrievals
in this section, we describe the satellite retrievals that are illustrated and discussed in this paper. to highlight a critical difference in capabilities, the retrievals are categorized as either passive nadir-viewing or radar/limb sounding. this distinction conveys a sense of their capabilities to account for vertical structure, namely in terms of being able to deal less ambiguously with multiple cloud levels and/or mixed-phase clouds. this leads to a pragmatic distinction of whether the satellite retrieval provides an estimate of (column-integrated) ice water path (iwp; gm m 2) and/or has the capability to provide an estimate of (vertically resolved) ice water content (iwc; mg m 3). in each case, all-sky values are discussed and presented. given that this study mainly focuses on the new capabilities and the associated uncertainties of the cloudsat and mls retrievals, more details are provided regarding their methods and products (see table 1). the passive nadir-viewing products are only referenced briefly and therefore the discussion below only provides highlights with many details left to the referenced literature. figure 2. schematic diagram illustrating measurement methods for estimating cloud ice water content/path, including in situ measurements as well as passive, radar, and limb-sounding satellite techniques.
what does much of the water resources infrastructure in the United States need?
maintenance, rehabilitation, and repair
what is the strategy to reduce the risk of an individual water supply?
to create more diverse portfolios of water supply
what is another source of freshwater supply?
desalination
management of existing, long-lived infrastructure includes up-to-date maintenance, rehabilitation, and upgrades to ensure flexibility to a wide range of potential climate variability. much of the water resources infrastructure in the united states is aging and needs maintenance, rehabilitation, and repair (american society of civil engineers, 200\\x04). the infrastructure may not meet its design level of performance under the current climate and could be more vulnerable to failure under future climate scenarios. one important adaptation to a changing climate is to evaluate the potential risk to existing, long-lived infrastructure, such as dams and levees, caused by possible increases in the magnitude, frequency, and duration of large floods. alternative strategies for meeting project goals may need to be evaluated and may result in modification to infrastructure. one strategy to reduce the risk of an individual water supply is to create more diverse portfolios of water supply. this approach could include new surface-water storage and (or) ground-water storage. conjunctive management of surface and ground waters could help replenish ground-water supplies. another source of freshwater supply is desalination. desalination plants require both a large capital investment and 30 climate change and water resources management: a federal perspective large amounts of energy, but costs per unit of freshwater have been declining (national research council, 2008). desalination is an option for both seawater and brackish ground water. other approaches to enhance water supplies include reusing high-quality water and treating sources of degraded water for use, and protecting the integrity of existing water supplies.
What elements are used from lake sediments?
the isotope composition of authigenic and biogenic carbonates and diatom silica are commonly used as palaeoclimate proxies from lake sediments
What does this article describe about?
this article reviews the controls on the isotope composition of lacustrine skeletal and non skeletal deposits and illustrates how stable isotope studies contribute to an understanding of changes in temperature, precipitation patterns, evaporation and the carbon cycle. it highlights the differences in the palaeoclimate potential of a wide range of lakes ranging from open to closed lake basins
What are the interpretations of isotope data?
the interpretation of isotope data from a lacustrine succession requires a knowledge of the local processes that might control and modify the signal. their effects need to be quantified, and a robust calibration using the modern lake system is necessary to establish the relationship between the measured signal, the isotopic composition of the host waters, and climate
the isotope composition of authigenic and biogenic carbonates and diatom silica are commonly used as palaeoclimate proxies from lake sediments. this article reviews the controls on the isotope composition of lacustrine skeletal and non skeletal deposits and illustrates how stable isotope studies contribute to an understanding of changes in temperature, precipitation patterns, evaporation and the carbon cycle. it highlights the differences in the palaeoclimate potential of a wide range of lakes ranging from open to closed lake basins. a large number of the case histories, but not all, are drawn from studies of temperate lakes from europe. large closed lake systems, in the tropics and elsewhere, lose water predominantly through evaporation, and contain sediments with variable and generally high d18o values. fluctuations in the isotope composition of authigenic or biogenic minerals are mainly a function of long term changes in the precipitation/evaporation ratio. in contrast small open lakes which have a degree of through-flow typically contain sediments with d18o values that vary by no more than a few %0. these variations are generally ascribed to variations in temperature or the isotope composition of precipitation d p), from which either an annual or seasonally specific signal can be gained. these types of lakes are common in northern europe and at high altitudes. the interpretation of isotope data from a lacustrine succession requires a knowledge of the local processes that might control and modify the signal. their effects need to be quantified, and a robust calibration using the modern lake system is necessary to establish the relationship between the measured signal, the isotopic composition of the host waters, and climate. keywords: palaeoclimate, stable isotopes, carbon isotopes, oxygen isotopes, carbonate, diatom, keywords: palaeoclimate, stable isotopes, carbon isotopes, oxygen isotopes, carbonate, diatom, lake sediments, lakes
How did the desert bighorn populations become extinct in California in the 20th century? It didn't happen randomly.
extinction of desert bighorn populations in california in the twentieth century did not occur randomly
What were the populations like in low mountain ranges? were much more likely to become extinct, particularly at 1,500 m
populations in mountain ranges of lower elevation were much more likely to become extinct, particularly at 1500 m
What does that suggest? This suggests not only that the desert bighorn sheep is vulnerable to climate warming
this suggests not only that desert bighorn sheep are vulnerable to climate warming but that climate warming has already affected their distribution in california
elements in the final model extinction of desert bighorn populations in california in the twentieth century did not occur randomly. populations in mountain ranges of lower elevation were much more likely to become extinct, particularly at 1500 m (fig. 2a). populations in regions with the lowest annual precipitation, especially 200 mm annual precipitation, were also more likely to become extinct (fig. 2b), as were populations without dependable springs and populations in which domestic-sheep grazing allotments formerly overlapped or abutted desert bighorn habitat. this suggests not only that desert bighorn sheep are vulnerable to climate warming but that climate warming has already affected their distribution in california. hierarchical partitioning established that elevation and precipitation each had relatively strong independent effects in the model, despite their high degree of colinearity (table 4). we suggest that the correlation between low elevation and higher risk of extinction resulted largely from the highly predictive relationship between elevation and temperature. lower mountain ranges experience higher temperatures, and, as a result, bighorn sheep could have a greater dependency on water sources or poorer nutrition, resulting in lower survival. higherelevation ranges have an extended growing season: spring growth starts first at the lower elevations, and green-up progresses up the elevation gradient. therefore, taller figure 2. distribution of (a) maximum elevation and (b) maximum average precipitation values for ranges of native and extinct bighorn sheep ovis canadensis nelsoni ).
What was the trend in the variance of species?
there was a sharp decrease in the variance explained by additional clusters after grouping species in ambient and delayed into three groups
What were the different strategies categorized on  basis?
on the basis of the different response patterns of the three groups, we labelled the three life strategies opportunistic (which had low relative abundance at the start of the experiment, high after one pulse, and low after four pulses), tolerant (low, low, high) and sensitive (high, low, low) ecological strategies. strategy groups were significantly different from one another in both ambient (global r -statistic 0.675, p 0.01) and delayed (0.775, p 0.01) treatments
What were the responses of the groups?
these three groups exhibited the same drying-rewetting responses in ambient and delayed (figs 2 and 3), even though many combinations of abundances (and groups) were possible (see fig. 2 for all possible response patterns). clusters (and otu cluster assignment) were robust
there was a sharp decrease in the variance explained by additional clusters after grouping species in ambient and delayed into three groups (forming a clear 'elbow' in fig. s1). on the basis of the different response patterns of the three groups, we labelled the three life strategies opportunistic (which had low relative abundance at the start of the experiment, high after one pulse, and low after four pulses), tolerant (low, low, high) and sensitive (high, low, low) ecological strategies. strategy groups were significantly different from one another in both ambient (global r -statistic 0.675, p 0.01) and delayed (0.775, p 0.01) treatments. these three groups exhibited the same drying-rewetting responses in ambient and delayed (figs 2 and 3), even though many combinations of abundances (and groups) were possible (see fig. 2 for all possible response patterns). clusters (and otu cluster assignment) were robust
What are the Guardian and the Independent seen as supporting?
a social democratic ideology, with a global outlook and values of equity and solidarity
What is Lomborg called?
the 'controversial scientist
But why such a lull in coverage in the Independent between 2001/02 and 2003/04, followed by a surge?
there is a suspicion that late 2004 saw the paper taking an editorial decision to put climate change near the top of its agenda, for what reason one can only speculate
on the other side of the fence, the guardian and the independent are seen as supporting a social democratic ideology, with a global outlook and values of equity and solidarity (carvalho, 2007). hence their coverage is dominated by the crisis discourses and ethical mitigation all demanding that urgent action is taken by the west to help the developing world. while the guardian gives space to rationalism in 2001/02, its appearance in 2004/05 has a distinct framing: lomborg is called the 'controversial scientist' and one of the articles carries rebukes from environment and development groups (vidal, 21.10.04). that all sounds rather neat, but why such a lull in coverage in the independent between 2001/02 and 2003/04, followed by a surge? there is a suspicion that late 2004 saw the paper taking an editorial decision to put climate change near the top of its agenda, for what reason one can only speculate.
Why are waste emissions contributing to the creation of a global ecological crisis?
waste emissions continue to be created at a rate faster than natural systems can absorb them, contributing to the creation of a global ecological crisis
What has been the global hegemonic economic system influencing human interactions with nature over the past several hundred years?
for several hundred years, capitalism has been the global hegemonic economic system, influencing human interactions with nature
Is the fact that the conditions found in nature and society influence and shape each other a constant aspect of life?
the conditions found in nature and society influence and shape each other. this aspect of life is a constant. however, the specific ways this exchange is done are determined by a variety of historically organized social systems.7for
yet, waste emissions continue to be created at a rate faster than natural systems can absorb them, contributing to the creation of a global ecological crisis. as rosa and dietz note, "the capacity to support life on earth - and, therefore, all societies - depends on the moderating influences of gases that envelop the planet, warm its surface, and protect it from harmful radiation."5human existence is perpetuated and social history is created through a material exchange with the larger natural world.6alteration of this process of material exchange can potentially undermine the endurance of societies. the conditions found in nature and society influence and shape each other. this aspect of life is a constant. however, the specific ways this exchange is done are determined by a variety of historically organized social systems.7for several hundred years, capitalism has been the global hegemonic economic system, influencing human interactions with nature. while the capacity of humans to transform nature in ways detrimental to societies has long been known, it is only recently that the social interactions with nature, as well as ecological limits, have become major subjects for sociologists.8the ecological sustainability of human societies is in question, as the scale of many environmental problems
We then generate predictions of the spatial pattern of declines for competing hypothesized causal mechanisms we compair what?
the observed and predicted patterns
The power of this strategy resides in its broad is what?
species-wide approach that avoids reliance on one or a few study sites
GIS stands for what?
geographic information system
fisher and shaffer 1996). we then generate predictions of the spatial pattern of declines for competing hypothesized causal mechanisms, and we statistically compare the observed and predicted patterns. the power of this strategy resides in its broad, species-wide approach that avoids reliance on one or a few study sites, as well as the ability to simultaneously evaluate multiple hypotheses for causes of declines. in addition, the analysis of spatial patterns is a powerful and relatively quick method to assess possible causes of decline. the approach takes advantage of the extensive distribution data that already exist in natural history museums and recent surveys (reznick et al. 1994, shaffer et al. 1998, wake 1998), and combines this information with often readily accessible geographic information system (gis) data on land use, elevation, and other factors. like many amphibians in western north america
What is the goal of your research?
one ultimate goal of global-change research is to project future states of climate and ecosystems
What do you think of the results of your experiments thus far?
results from experiments and observation have great uncertainties owing to the nature of perturbation experiments
How is the feedback you've received regarding climate warming?
feedback to climate warming is not fully in accordance with experimental results
one ultimate goal of global-change research is to project future states of climate and ecosystems. although research over the past years has established a modeling framework that can be used to evaluate feedbacks between climate change and global c cycles, the model assumption that kinetics of photosynthetic and respiratory biochemistry underlie terrestrial carbon-cycle feedback to climate warming is not fully in accordance with experimental results. conversely, results from experiments and observation have great uncertainties owing to the nature of perturbation experiments (luo reynolds 1999), different experimentation methods, scales of studies, and other issues. a search for predictive understanding from imperfect models and uncertain experimental evidence therefore represents a great challenge. here i discuss a few approaches that are not mutually exclusive but may simultaneously contribute to our predictive understanding of terrestrial carbon-cycle feedback to climate warming.
What does the international climate police primarily focuses on?
on long-term reductions of co2 emissions
What did the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change report about developd country Parties to the Kyoto Protocol-excluding former Soviet countries with economies in transition?
increased their emissions 9.9% above 1990 levels by 2006, and only economic slowdown by countries with economies in transition has produced real reductions
How many years is the climate change largely irreversible for, even CO2 emissions stop?
1,000 years
international climate policy has focused primarily on long-term reductions of co2 emissions, for example, through increased energy efficiency, renewable energy sources, and other low-carbon strategies. despite the availability of mitigation strategies that are low-cost and even profitable (13), the united nations framework convention on climate change (unfccc) reports that developed country parties to the kyoto protocol--excluding former soviet countries with economies in transition--had increased their emissions 9.9% above 1990 levels by 2006, and only economic slowdown by countries with economies in transition has produced real reductions (14). non-parties advocating a separate approach have not done better. even when co2 emissions stop, climate change is largely irreversible for 1,000 years (15, 16). efforts to limit co2 emissions alone may not be sufficient to avoid or reduce the risk of dai on a decadal time scale, including the risk of abrupt climate change from committed warming (8, 9).
What is anthropogenic forcing?
the anthropogenic forcing of the climate system is a function of the accumulated stock of greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere, and therefore closely correlated with cumulative greenhouse gas emissions (meinshausen et al. 2009; matthews et al. 2009
Where  relationship can also be seen?
this relationship can also be seen in the dp scenarios. figure 4 shows the cumulative kyoto gas emissions during 2010-2100 for the refpol-450 and 500 scenarios
What are other differences?
other differences are due to the fact that direct (kyoto) forcing from the long-lived greenhouse gases controlled under the kyoto protocol does not describe full anthropogenic forcing
the anthropogenic forcing of the climate system is a function of the accumulated stock of greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere, and therefore closely correlated with cumulative greenhouse gas emissions (meinshausen et al. 2009; matthews et al. 2009). this relationship can also be seen in the dp scenarios. figure 4 shows the cumulative kyoto gas emissions during 2010-2100 for the refpol-450 and 500 scenarios. we observe that the models broadly agree on the cumulative amount of emissions that remain under the target, and that this amount increases with the forcing target. gcam shows a bit lower overall emissions budgets because of the deep reduction of co2 emissions at the end of the century. it also projects the lowest forcing and climate outcome. other differences are due to the fact that direct (kyoto) forcing from the long-lived greenhouse gases controlled under the kyoto protocol does not describe full anthropogenic forcing. non-kyoto forcing substances such as aerosols and tropospheric ozone add a net variation of -0.3 to 0.1 w/m2 in the limits scenarios, which is large enough to affect remaining kyoto gas emissions budgets under the targets. thus, non-kyoto forcing can be an important consideration for 2degc mitigation pathways (hansen and sato 2001; rose et al. 2013) although the bulk of anthropogenic forcing will come from kyoto gas emissions. (a) (b)
What do "hats" refer to?
 hats " refer to the values of the parameters that emerge from an ef fi cient date-2 agreement
What does "start" refer to?
 star " superscripts correspond to the nash outcome that would result from a failure to agree
What does the assumption guarantee?
this assumption will guarantee the uniqueness of the fi rstbest policy a1 ifb and allow us to sign the bias induced by delayed negotiations. we will check that assumption 1 is satis fi ed in all our applications
this assumption just captures the notion of a " lax environmental policy " in our model. in the following, " hats " refer to the values of the parameters that emerge from an ef fi cient date-2 agreement, while " star " superscripts correspond to the nash outcome that would result from a failure to agree. thus, a i 2denotes region i 's second-period pollution control after the agreement. condition (ii) is a quasi-concavity condition in which the jointly ef fi cient date-2 reaction to the fi rst period policy, a 2 ia1 i   is factored in; this assumption will guarantee the uniqueness of the fi rstbest policy a1 ifb and allow us to sign the bias induced by delayed negotiations. we will check that assumption 1 is satis fi ed in all our applications.
What is the production rate?
targets for the production of 50% of energy
Will it be necessary to re-engineer the whole Britain system?
it will be necessary to re-engineer the uk energy supply network to accept contributions from millions of small power stations instead of 100 large ones. the only solution is to rewire britain
What will need to be integrated for the renewable energy?
solar and wind generators on buildings, as well as locating them in the countryside
the advantage of renewable energy is that it is infinite. add to that the clean energy it produces, and the fact that people now want it. in july 2009 the scottish government agreed targets for the production of 50% of energy from renewables by 2050, and to achieve these targets will require integrated solar and wind generators on buildings, as well as locating them in the countryside. this means a revolution in the way we supply energy in the uk, because if we are to do this then it will be necessary to re-engineer the uk energy supply network to accept contributions from millions of small power stations instead of 100 large ones. the only solution is to rewire britain. more free ebooks http://fast-file.blogspot.com
How are the strategies to reduce carbon emissions presented to householders?
when strategies are proposed for households, they often appear in laundry list format, giving little or no priority to effectiveness
What proportion of Americans believe that climate change is real, that it is caused by human action, that reduced energy use is part of the solution, and that personal actions can contribute to reducing climate change?
a near-majority or majority
potential savings of this magnitude have existed for at least three decades.4 it is therefore reasonable to ask why the potential remains largely unfulfilled and what can be done to achieve it. lack of financial incentives may be one answer, but as the analysis in this article shows, much of the unfulfilled potential for reduction is achievable at low-, no-, or negative-cost. other partial explanations include difficulties in financing expensive home retrofits, limited ability of renters to change energy use in owners' buildings, and the average householder's limited amount of time and attention.5 all these explanations are important and deserve policy attention if potential savings are to be realized. perhaps crucially, however, households lack accurate, accessible, and actionable information on how best to achieve potential savings through their own steps. from a householder's perspective, a desire to reduce carbon emissions, even combined with knowledge that doing so has net financial and environmental benefits, is insufficient to yield effective action unless that person knows which actions will produce the benefits. available evidence indicates that although many householders are motivated, they lack the necessary knowledge to act. moreover, their beliefs about which actions are most beneficial are often mistaken, and the most readily available sources of behavioral advice are not helpful. when strategies are proposed for households, they often appear in laundry list format, giving little or no priority to effectiveness. it is easy for households that want to cope with rising gasoline prices and heating and cooling bills to respond by taking small actions under the impression they are saving energy, while they are actually making a negligible dent in their personal energy consumption. what are the most effective actions that households can take to save energy, and how can policymakers at all levels help households achieve these savings? beliefs about climate change and energy conservation research on public attitudes and opinion on climate change and energy conservation indicates that a near-majority or majority of americans believe that climate change is real, that it is caused by human action, that reduced energy use is part of the solution, and that personal actions can contribute to reducing climate change. in early 2008, majorities reported that they are using less energy at home and buying energy-efficient appliances, and a near majority reported using less gasoline.6 thus, most u.s. residents want to make behavioral changes that reduce their greenhouse gas emissions and many believe they are doing so. the most extensive research on what consumers believe about the energy-saving potential of household actions was conducted around the energy crises of the late 1970s and early 1980s. for example, a team at michigan state university asked 400 randomly selected michigan residents how much they paid per year in home energy bills, which actions could save on these costs, and how much they believed they could save by each action.7 their responses were compared with the estimates of home energy specialists. householder and expert estimates often diverged, sometimes by a factor of four. householders emphasized highly visible actions that can reduce energy use if repeated regularly, such as lowering winter thermostat settings and turning off lights, and they overestimated the potential energy savings from these actions. respondents were far less likely to name actions with higher energy-saving potential but low visibility, such as installing storm windows, and they underestimated how much energy these actions could save. average householders saw most of the potential for energy savings in curtailment--cutting back on normal and desired activities--whereas the energy experts saw the greatest potential in efficiency--investing in home equipment that lowers energy costs without sacrificing desired energy services. comparable recent data are not available, though some researchers are beginning to revisit the topic.8
What is inevitable in a book such as this one?
in a book such as this one, it is inevitable that symbols must be used to represent more than one object due to limitations of the common alphabets employed
How is balance achieved?
a balance has hopefully been achieved whereby symbols are defined where they are used, and redefined later when revisited in another context, or used for another meaning, or when a reminder is useful
What are there a plethora of?
as with any book on a topic in mathematical physics, there are a plethora of symbols
as with any book on a topic in mathematical physics, there are a plethora of symbols. this situation often provokes frustration from the reader who does not fully appreciate the meaning of a symbol, perhaps since it was defined an unknown number of chapters earlier, or perhaps because it was poorly defined from the start. authors, in contrast, often lament the limitations of commonly used symbols for communicating their ideas in a precise and unambiguous manner. furthermore, in a book such as this one, it is inevitable that symbols must be used to represent more than one object due to limitations of the common alphabets employed. an attempt is made throughout this book to minimize the symbols used without sacrificing clarity. a balance has hopefully been achieved whereby symbols are defined where they are used, and redefined later when revisited in another context, or used for another meaning, or when a reminder is useful. even so, it may prove useful to have a list of common symbols used in this book as well as the page where the symbol's definition can be found. for this purpose, symbols are organized here according to whether they are latin, greek, or mathematical operators. note that many symbols used only for a particular section are not listed here, as their local definition should be sufficient.
What are the states they study in?
in pine plantations in florida and wisconsin, a pine forest in montana, and a mixed western hemlock and douglas fir forest in oregon
What are the three things summarized in Tables 1 and 2?
site, climate, and stand characteristics
What years the slash pine plantation was planted?
1965
study sites the study was conducted in pine plantations in florida and wisconsin, a pine forest in montana, and a mixed western hemlock and douglas fir forest in oregon. these forests represent conifers growing in very different climates: short growing season, wet summer (wisconsin) or dry summer (montana); long growing season, wet summer (florida) or dry summer (oregon). at each site, stands were selected to represent the "stem exclusion" stage of stand development (oliver 1981), characterized by a recently closed canopy, full use of resources, intense competition among individuals, and a lack of light that prevents younger stems from being established. therefore, the developmental age of the stands was similar among the sites, even though the chronological ages differed. site, climate, and stand characteristics are summarized in tables 1 and 2. the red pine plantation was established in 1960 and is located 10km north-west of boulder junction, wisconsin (46~ 89~ soil at the red pine site is classified as an entic haplorthod and developed on glacial outwash. the soil is often frozen to 50 cm between december and april despite a continuous snow pack. the red pine stand has no significant biomass in understory plants. further description of the site can be found in gower et al. (1993). the slash pine plantation was planted in 1965 and is located 20 km north-east of gainesville, florida (29~ 82~ the soil is sandy and low in organic matter and nutrients and has a high water table. the predominant soil type is an ultic haplaquod. the slash pine stand has a substantial understory of palmetto
What does the CCSM3 sea ice model simulation capture?
the mean conditions and annual cycle of the sea ice area and thickness
According to the studies discussed, the inclusion of an ITD parameterization increased the ice growth rates resulted in what?
thicker sea ice, and increased the surface air temperature in regions of perennial ice cover
What was the cause of modification of ocean circulation and heat transport by the IDT?
increased ice growth and brine rejection close to the antarctic continent driving enhanced deep water formation
we have presented the sea ice model simulation of the ccsm3 and have discussed the influence of the subgridscale ice thickness distribution (itd) on simulated mean climate conditions and sea ice related feedbacks. in general, the ccsm3 sea ice model simulation is quite good and reasonably captures the mean conditions and annual cycle of the sea ice area and thickness. however, in the t42-gx1 control simulation, there are some notable biases. for the northern hemisphere, these include relatively extensive winter ice cover in the labrador sea and north pacific, too little ice cover in the barents sea, and an unrealistic arctic ice thickness pattern, which has relatively thick ice along the siberian coast and relatively thin ice along the canadian arctic archipelago. in the southern hemisphere, the sea ice is too extensive in the atlantic and indian ocean sectors and excessively thick in the weddell sea, particularly along the antarctic peninsula. many of these biases are improved in the higher resolution t85-gx1 model simulation. we assessed the influence of the itd on simulated climate using both fully coupled century long integrations and atmosphere-land-sea ice-slab ocean model (som) integrations. the primary results are summarized in table 3. consistent with previous studies with simpler model systems, the inclusion of an itd parameterization increased the ice growth rates, resulted in thicker sea ice, and increased the surface air temperature in regions of perennial ice cover. ocean circulation and heat transport, particularly in the southern hemisphere, were modified by the itd due to increased ice growth and brine rejection close to the antarctic continent driving enhanced deep water formation. atmosphere circulation changes were also associated with the presence of the subgridscale itd, most notably in the southern hemisphere.
What method is used to account for the feedback between glacier mass balance and changes in glacier components?
we use volume-length scaling to account for the feedback between glacier mass balance and changes in glacier hypsometry, allowing receding glaciers to approach a new equilibrium in a warming climate
When is the calibrated mass balance model utilized?
finally, we run the calibrated mass balance model for all rgi with downscaled monthly twenty-first century temperature and precipitation from 14 gcms, based on the two chosen emission
finally, we run the calibrated mass balance model for all rgi with downscaled monthly twenty-first century temperature and precipitation from 14 gcms, based on the two chosen emission scenarios (rcp4.5 and rcp8.5). we use volume-length scaling to account for the feedback between glacier mass balance and changes in glacier hypsometry, allowing receding glaciers to approach a new equilibrium in a warming climate. 3.1 mass balance model we calculate the specific climatic mass balance for each elevation band of a glacier as a sum of accumulation, ablation and refreezing. ablation, a (mm water equivalent, w.e.) is calculated through a temperature-index model as a  1/4  fice snow
What could be due to a systematic error in some climate aspect of GCMs?
in gcms, a systematic error in some climate aspect might be due to a non-local process, which of course complicates model improvements
How are RCM evaluations are conducted?
cm evaluation is often done with so-called perfect boundary condition simulations37(also called hindcasts). in these experiments, boundary conditions are derived from global meteorological analyses or reanalyses38-40that are compilations of observed, rather than simulated, conditions. this enables evaluation without, or at least with considerably reduced, systematic biases in their large-scale forcing. evaluation furthermore becomes feasible in a 'time-series sense' against observations, rather than only in terms of climate statistics as is the case for studies made in 'climate mode'. this is important in particular when evaluating how well variability and extremes can be modeled
the quality of rcm simulations is of course dependent on the quality of the regional models themselves.36equally important is the quality of the driving data--the boundary conditions. gcms have skill and suffer from systematic biases. in gcms, a systematic error in some climate aspect might be due to a non-local process, which of course complicates model improvements. rcm evaluation is often done with so-called perfect boundary condition simulations37(also called hindcasts). in these experiments, boundary conditions are derived from global meteorological analyses or reanalyses38-40that are compilations of observed, rather than simulated, conditions. this enables evaluation without, or at least with considerably reduced, systematic biases in their large-scale forcing. evaluation furthermore becomes feasible in a 'time-series sense' against observations, rather than only in terms of climate statistics as is the case for studies made in 'climate mode'. this is important in particular when evaluating how well variability and extremes can be modeled. availability of suitable observational data limits model evaluation. for example, it is much more attractive to evaluate a climate model in terms of physical processes such as energy and water budgets and fluxes as well as state variables (such as temperature). observational data on the former is, unfortunately, quite limited. finally, even though rcms are run at relatively high resolution, they still fall short of the scale and nature of such point data as is collected on meteorological stations, ocean buoys, and such. this is a complication in particular for the evaluation of many kinds of extremes, as climate data generated with rcms (gridded data) are more homogenous in space compared to observations (station data). for example, in the former, extremes are typically attenuated compared to point values observed at stations.41model evaluation on the process level (e.g., fluxes) or by means of integrative metrics (e.g., river run-off) rather than in terms of state variables (e.g., temperature) is an avenue that deserves more exploration.42
For both depths, were the CH4 concentrations greater at the natural sites or the drained sites?
concentrations were significantly greater (by one order of magnitude) at the natural sites than at the drained sites for both unclipped and clipped plots at both measurement depths
At a depth of 25 cm, was the CH4 concentration greater at the natural unclipped or natural clipped plots?
dissolved pore water ch4 concentrations at a depth of 25 cm was significantly (mann-whitney, p ps 0.05) greater at the natural site unclipped plots than at the natural site clipped plots
At a depth of 40 cm, Was there any difference between the CH4 concentrations in the various plots?
dissolved pore water ch4 concentrations at a depth of 40 cm were not significantly different (mann-whitney, p ps 0.05) between the natural site unclipped and clipped plots and drained site unclipped and clipped plots
dissolved pore water ch4 concentrations at a depth of 25 cm was significantly (mann-whitney, p ps 0.05) greater at the natural site unclipped plots than at the natural site clipped plots (table 1). however, there was no significant difference between the dissolved ch4 concentrations of the drained site unclipped plots and the drained site clipped plots. dissolved pore water ch4 concentrations at a depth of 40 cm were not significantly different (mann-whitney, p ps 0.05) between the natural site unclipped and clipped plots and drained site unclipped and clipped plots. concentrations were significantly greater (by one order of magnitude) at the natural sites than at the drained sites for both unclipped and clipped plots at both measurement depths.
What is the next section focused on addressing of climate change?
these issues will be addressed in the next section focused on defining the burden of climate change
What is a constant challenge of the usage of rights?
defining rights is always the challenge of using them
The perceptions to protect the rights to climate security are dependent on what assumptions?
perceptions about what is required to protect 'rights' to climate security are dependent on assumptions about the nature of climate change, the limits of substitution, and the potential of technology
defining rights is always the challenge of using them, and a full analysis of this debate in the climate context is beyond the scope of this article. however, attempts to address rights in climate policy have been seen in provisions for adaptation funding and human development, and in debates about the definition of a 'safe' stabilization level. perceptions about what is required to protect 'rights' to climate security are dependent on assumptions about the nature of climate change, the limits of substitution, and the potential of technology. these issues will be addressed in the next section focused on defining the burden of climate change.
Climate changes due to the enhanced greenhouse effect are expected to strongly affect certain activities and environments. According to Parry (2000) which sector of the economy will be more sensitive in this regard?
primary sectors, such as agriculture and forestry, will be more sensitive than secondary and tertiary sectors, such as manufacturing and retailing (parry, 2000
Which regions in Europe are more likely to be negatively impacted by climate change?
in particular, in europe the balance of impacts of climate change will be more negative in marginal regions (south and east) than in core regions (metropolitan northwest) aggravating current economic and social problems
Give three examples of "extreme events" of climate variability or change.
extreme event lasting only a few hours (i.e. hurricane, thunderstorm, shower
the role of climate variability in affecting human activities and the natural environment is well accepted. this may range from an extreme event lasting only a few hours (i.e. hurricane, thunderstorm, shower) through to the multi-year droughts (e.g. west and sahelian africa and iberian peninsula drought spells). climate change due to the enhanced greenhouse effect are also expected to strongly affect these activities and environments. primary sectors, such as agriculture and forestry, will be more sensitive than secondary and tertiary sectors, such as manufacturing and retailing (parry, 2000). in particular, in europe the balance of impacts of climate change will be more negative in marginal regions (south and east) than in core regions (metropolitan northwest) aggravating current economic and social problems. consequently, climate change will have major implications for europe's policies of development and environmental management. this work is focussed on reviewing the impact of climate variability and climate change on european agriculture and forestry. in particular, the paper illustrates the responses of ecosystems to changes in mean and variability of climate, as well as the main management strategies adoptable to avoid or at least reduce negative climate change impacts. 5
How far submerged should the scum baffle be?
approximately 20 cm
Do perforated tubes help collect effluent?
the alternative of using submerged perforated tubes for the collection of effluent has been shown to be very efficient
What should be taken into account when setting up the aparatus?
special care should be taken with their levelling, once small slopes in the launder can represent a significant variation in the flow collected at different points
in situations in which the velocities through the apertures are high and the detention time in the sedimentation compartment is small, a high loss of solids in the effluent and the eventual failure of the treatment system are expected. (h) effluent collection the effluent is collected from the reactor in its upper part, within the sedimentation compartment. the devices usually used for the collection of effluent are plates with v-notch weirs and submerged perforated tubes. if a launder with v-notch weirs is used (see figure 27.19), special care should be taken with their levelling, once small slopes in the launder can represent a significant variation in the flow collected at different points. a scum baffle, submerged at approximately 20 cm, should be included along the launder. additional care regarding the launders refers to the possibility of gas release, particularly h2s, in view of the turbulence close to the weirs. in this sense, submerged outlets, with no effluent turbulence, are more suitable. the alternative of using submerged perforated tubes for the collection of effluent has been shown to be very efficient, mainly in three aspects:
What is the starting point in analyzing the costs of climate change policy?
is kyoto and its associated distorting incentive structure
Its design encourages two types of income-seeking behavior, what are they?
by countries seeking advantage from their individual quotas; and by companies seeking to arbitrage between different geographic production caps
What incentives do companies have to relocate?
to minimize their carbon costs
there is a large and growing climate-change 'pork barrel'.24it is highly unlikely that the policy costs will be zero. indeed, there are good reasons to suppose otherwise--at every level of climate-change policy. the starting point in analysing climate-change policy costs is kyoto and its associated distorting incentive structure. its design encourages two sorts of rent-seeking behaviour: by countries seeking advantage from their individual quotas; and by companies seeking to arbitrage between different geographic production caps. every country has an incentive to overstate its costs of compliance and underestimate its opportunities for abatement. the very measurement base has economic rents attached to it. countries also have an incentive to misreport performance. companies have incentives to switch locations to minimize their carbon costs. these distorting incentives have been a common feature of negotiations since the un fccc, and there is no reason to suppose that they will go away. to these policy costs in the overall design of international climate-change agreements need to be added the costs of specific policy interventions. in this respect, the uk is an interesting and instructive example. the incoming labour government in 1997 committed itself to a unilateral domestic co2 target of a 20 per cent reduction by 2010 from 1990 levels (labour party, 1997). this was presented as an exercise in 'leadership': the uk would demonstrate that this target could be achieved, and at low cost, thereby providing an example which would be used to persuade the usa to accept kyoto carbon caps.25
What is the essential first step in modeling?
modeling of the magnitude and direction of expected vegetation and habitat changes is an essential first step
What models have inadequate resolution for conservation planning?
global models have inadequate resolution for conservation planning
why global modeling is done in regional level?
global models have inadequate resolution for conservation planning, so this modeling must be done on a regional level. known climate tolerances of many species can be used to help predict potential future range changes
modeling of the magnitude and direction of expected vegetation and habitat changes is an essential first step. global models have inadequate resolution for conservation planning, so this modeling must be done on a regional level. known climate tolerances of many species can be used to help predict potential future range changes. this information can be used in the design of protected-areas systems and for the management of the figure 1. biome changes projected for south africa, using the hadcm2 model with sulphate amelioration, in a scenario of doubled carbon dioxide. major shifts are predicted for all biomes. the succulent karoo (orange) and cape floristic (red) regions along the west coast are global biodiversity hotspots of high diversity and endemism. note the southward collapse of the succulent karoo hotspot. source: south africa country study on climate change (rutherford et al. 1999).
What is crucial for freshwater provision (drinking water and agriculture) in the southwest of the Netherlands?
the tidal river area is crucial for freshwater provision (drinking water and agriculture) in the southwest of the netherlands
What is the maximum allowable chloride concentration in the inland water system to meet the requirements?
to meet the requirements, the maximum allowable chloride concentration in the inland water system is 250 mg/l
How has the water allocation been established?
water allocation has been established in a series of water agreements between national and regional administrations
the tidal river area is crucial for freshwater provision (drinking water and agriculture) in the southwest of the netherlands (figure 5). a rising sea level and reduced river discharge during dry summers lead to extra salinization of the groundwater and surface water. an atp for this sector would occur if sea level rise in combination with lower river drainage results in an inability to maintain salt concentrations at a level low enough to maintain key functions. water allocation has been established in a series of water agreements between national and regional administrations. to meet the requirements, the maximum allowable chloride concentration in the inland water system is 250 mg/l. under current conditions, the inlet of fresh water needs to be closed once between every 5 and 10 years64to protect against saltwater intrusion. however, the frequency and duration of necessary closure of fresh water inlets
When the entry point for public money is active and strategic shareholding is utilized?
when the public sector, as a partial or full owner of a project or company, influences that entity's investment decision making
another entry point for public money is active and strategic shareholding. this entry point is utilized when the public sector, as a partial or full owner of a project or company, influences that entity's investment decision making. this entry point can be difficult to measure. by examining ownership layers as explained in the methodology section, we find that the public sector invested usd 42 billion, usd 5 billion directly and at least an extra usd 37 billion indirectly that we initially classified as private sources of money this corresponds to a mix of active strategic shareholding and passive shareholding via equity investment. to illustrate what we mean by active and strategic shareholding, we categorize this entry point in four ways. first, we identify investments in which the public sector directly provides equity to its own climate finance projects. this provides governments and other public entities with access to energy to ensure security of supply and avoid any exposure to electricity market prices among other things. for example, in 2012, the us department of navy invested in the 2 mw blue sky norfolk naval base pv plant. the benefits of these investments can be geared towards the provision of public goods and services to citizens. second, we highlight that public sector investment can be used to directly support third-party projects as co-investments. the public sector would inject capital to help project co-investors deploy projects by reducing
What is the  the main factor restricting local economic development  in arid regions?
limited water resources in arid regions are often the main factor restricting local economic development
According to the scientists,  what influences the  regional hydrological cycles and subsequent changes in stream flow regimes ?
it has been widely recognized that global climate changes, mainly global temperature increases and altered precipitation patterns, could have a significant impact on the regional hydrological cycles and subsequent changes in stream flow regimes
What is the relation between the the hydrological sensitivity andclimate change?
increased temperature is expected to cause a rise in potential evaporation losses, and less snow and alteration of precipitation directly cause changes to river runoff. in general, the drier the climate, the greater the hydrological sensitivity to climate change (chen et al ., 2006). chen et al (1991) analysed the changes of mean temperature in north-west china and concluded that this region may be one of the most sensitive to global warming
limited water resources in arid regions are often the main factor restricting local economic development. it has been widely recognized that global climate changes, mainly global temperature increases and altered precipitation patterns, could have a significant impact on the regional hydrological cycles and subsequent changes in stream flow regimes (govinda, 1995; mccabe and hay, 1995; niemann and eltahir, 2005; chen et al ., 2006;). increased temperature is expected to cause a rise in potential evaporation losses, and less snow and alteration of precipitation directly cause changes to river runoff. in general, the drier the climate, the greater the hydrological sensitivity to climate change (chen et al ., 2006). chen et al (1991) analysed the changes of mean temperature in north-west china and concluded that this region may be one of the most sensitive to global warming. lai and ye (1995) investigated runoff time series at mountain outlets from 1955 to 1985 in northwest china and found positive anomalies were dominant before 1973, with negative anomalies dominant after 1973. much research focused on climate and runoff
how can this migration affect cities?
stressing the socioeconomic conditions already exacerbated by high population growth
drought and desertifi cation frequency and intensity will increase, causing health problems and also infl uencing population migration. droughts, especially in rural areas, have a tendency to aff ect migration into cities,1 increasing urbanisation and stressing the socioeconomic conditions already exacerbated by high population growth. it is estimated that 72% of the dwellers in african cities live in slums, which, having poor drainage facilities, are especially prone to fl ooding and ill health.87 action aid ran analyses of slum dwellers in six african cities and found intracity fl ooding and the consequence on hygiene and sanitation to be a major health concern.88
What is likely to happen in the ansence of a clear strategy among the staff?
a rank-order view of human beings based on varying criteria (e.g. resources, status, appearance, power, physical strength) is likely to emerge
What values of organisations are prioritizied?
the values that accompany organisations that give priority to efficiency are economic, and these further contribute to a weakening of an organisation's humanistic and democratic values and goals
Which values can be considered truly common and shareable in multicultural educational settings?
some teachers might believe that the concept of universal human values is compatible with cultural diversity (admitting, recognising and accepting differences), while others want to emphasise cultural differences and define them as incompatibilities
common values or relativism? the ideology of cultural relativism is also challenging the idea that schools should transmit any values at all. which values can be considered truly common and shareable in multicultural educational settings? some teachers might believe that the concept of universal human values is compatible with cultural diversity (admitting, recognising and accepting differences), while others want to emphasise cultural differences and define them as incompatibilities. a consequence in school practice is that the development of common rules and values at school can suffer and can be unconvincing, based only on ideology, perceived as arbitrary and eventually neglected. one way to escape these potential conflicts is to appeal to a definition of education as consisting only of transmission of knowledge. yet this is an unfortunate standpoint because, even if the system does absolutely nothing explicit to transmit values and beliefs, transmission does occur anyway despite the passive or undecided intentions of the school staff. the problem in this case is that staff members abdicate the responsibility of choosing, agreeing and enforcing the democratic values that our society expects should inspire public educational institutions. what is likely to happen in the absence of a clear strategy and shared civic democratic goals among the staff is that other social values and attitudes can be allowed to dominate instead (e.g. hierarchical views of people and of their worth). a rank-order view of human beings based on varying criteria (e.g. resources, status, appearance, power, physical strength) is likely to emerge. this is not so surprising because the educational system and the surrounding society itself contain and enforce these hierarchical aspects more or less explicitly as in the school's grading system. in the educational system, the function of socialisation to the values of a democratic society appears opposed to the function of selection of the citizens for different social positions. further, a global tendency in educational policy has been the of other rules, inspired by market management principles (new public management). these principles sometimes lead to a priority on efficiency (highest production, lowest cost) while disregarding the socialisation mission of education. the values that accompany organisations that give priority to efficiency are economic, and these further contribute to a weakening of an organisation's humanistic and democratic values and goals. where these economic values dominate, they turn the educational system into an industrial plant, where pupils become standardised products. granted, these aspects are in a way inevitable in a national educational system that has the important social function of educating youth for the posts for which the community will need them. however, the excessive emphasis on these objectified components generates alienation among staff and pupils alike, particularly among those that fall outside the norm or cannot or will not achieve the standardised goals and become the desired products of the educational process. lack of evaluation of social goals the problem of transmission of democratic social values through the educational system is also controversial for another reason. this goal is formulated in the national guidelines/ curriculum but, because it is not subject to any national evaluation, it can be considered only to be a good intention.
What has the rise of party polarization in recent decades prompted Christopher Hare and Keith T. Poole to argue?
partisan polarization had been building in recent decades, leading christopher hare and keith t. poole to argue, "even the most casual observer of american politics cannot help but notice that partisan conflict has grown sharper, unrelenting, and more ideological over recent decades
Why do party activists and primary voters pressure candidates and elected officials?
11 while political scholars are debating the degree to which this is a top-down process, in which elites provide cues that party followers adopt, or a bottom-up process, in which party activists and primary voters push candidates and elected officials to adopt more extreme views
partisan polarization had been building in recent decades, leading christopher hare and keith t. poole to argue, "even the most casual observer of american politics cannot help but notice that partisan conflict has grown sharper, unrelenting, and more ideological over recent decades."10 this has resulted from both political elites and--to a lesser but noticeable degree--much of the public viewing a growing number of issues along a single liberal-conservative continuum, and from this ideological axis becoming increasingly aligned with partisan identification.11 while political scholars are debating the degree to which this is a top-down process, in which elites provide cues that party followers adopt, or a bottom-up process, in which party activists and primary voters push candidates and elected officials to adopt more extreme views, the result has clearly been increased "party sorting" in which voters are falling into ever-more-distinct partisan camps.12
What are the health risks to the human body stated in the article as a result of climate change?
climate change will exacerbate levels of cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, poor mental health, injuries, and malnutrition
What would well designed climate change relief strategies result it?
they would lower ghg emissions and concurrently reduce ncd risk in local populations, thus helping countries improve health, support development, and achieve national emission targets
What would a shift toward active transport result in?
widespread cardiovascular health gains and reduced risk of cancer, poor mental health, and other chronic conditions in all countries
climate preservation and the improvement of health for people everywhere are inextricably linked. coherent and sensitively designed cross-sectoral policies and programs in agriculture, energy use, and urban planning may produce major potential cobenefits for people and planet. however, if done badly, climate change policy in these areas may increase the prevalence of ncds globally and widen health inequities. addressing the environmental and social determinants of ncds will improve global health, but advances will also be made in poverty eradication and social equity such that people, communities, and nations will be able to resist current climate change and avert further damage to the global environment and climate. summary points 1. climate change will exacerbate levels of cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, poor mental health, injuries, and malnutrition. 2. climate change-related health impacts will increase pressure on health and social systems in lowand middle-income countries experiencing rapid growth in their burden of ncd. 3. well-designed climate change mitigation strategies could provide a win-win opportunity: they would lower ghg emissions and concurrently reduce ncd risk in local populations, thus helping countries improve health, support development, and achieve national emission targets. 4. reductions in urban air pollution and indoor air pollution have great potential cardiovascular and respiratory health benefits in low-income countries. 5. a shift toward active transport would result in widespread cardiovascular health gains and reduced risk of cancer, poor mental health, and other chronic conditions in all countries. 6. reductionsinbothcvdandsomecancers wouldarisefromareductionintheproduction and consumption of animal-source products among high-consuming populations. 7. climate change adaptation strategies, if done well, can help manage existing climate change by creating living conditions that reduce the risk of ncds and support development.
How many municipalities included ?
jointly, prescott russell (p&r) and stormont, dundas and glengarry (s, d&g) encompass 14 rural municipalities
Describe about population details abount City of Ottawa?
their population has increased by 1/3 over thirty years (1971-2001) mostly south and east of the city of ottawa especially in russell whose population has nearly tripled over the last 30 years under the economic attraction of the city of ottawa and its urban sprawl
What is the population status in the year 1951 to 1996 in City of Ottawa?
from 1951 to 1996, the rural population has diminished while the urban one has increased in the region due to the decreasing number of farms. as a result of reduction of family size and growing number of single-parent families, the number of households is increasing faster than population growth, increasing the need for dwellings and water consumption
jointly, prescott russell (p&r) and stormont, dundas and glengarry (s, d&g) encompass 14 rural municipalities. their population has increased by 1/3 over thirty years (1971-2001) mostly south and east of the city of ottawa especially in russell whose population has nearly tripled over the last 30 years under the economic attraction of the city of ottawa and its urban sprawl. from 1951 to 1996, the rural population has diminished while the urban one has increased in the region due to the decreasing number of farms. as a result of reduction of family size and growing number of single-parent families, the number of households is increasing faster than population growth, increasing the need for dwellings and water consumption. 2.2. land-use and economic activity
What will influence changes in future fire frequency and intensity?
69)vegetation type will influence changes in future fire frequency and intensity
Why is there high uncertainty associated with most studies of climate change and forest fires?
there is relatively high uncertainty associated with most studies of climate change and forest fires, due largely to our limited understanding of future changes in precipitation patterns
there is relatively high uncertainty associated with most studies of climate change and forest fires, due largely to our limited understanding of future changes in precipitation patterns. where precipitation increases, forest fire frequency may experience little change or even decrease.(3)it has also been shown that warm weather and dry conditions do not necessarily lead to a bad forest fire season. this was exemplified in 2001: despite the extreme heat and dryness, wildfire frequency was down and total area burned was the lowest on record.(69)vegetation type will influence changes in future fire frequency and intensity. for example, conifers are more likely to experience intense fires than are deciduous or mixed-wood stands. hence, species migrations in response to changing climate would also affect future fire behaviour by changing the fuel types.(70)some other factors that influence fire seasons include wind, lightning frequency, antecedent moisture conditions and fire management mechanisms.
According to the text, how is the normal flood regime?
flood depths of between half a meter up to three meters are considered part of the normal flood regime
What is the importance of the flooding in Mekong, according to the text?
flooding plays an important role in the economy and culture of the area
What is a contributing factor to out migration and displacement in Mekong Delta, according to the text?
environmental degradation, particularly impacts caused by flooding, is a contributing factor to rural out migration and displacement in the mekong delta of vietnam
environmental degradation, particularly impacts caused by flooding, is a contributing factor to rural out migration and displacement in the mekong delta of vietnam. the vietnamese portion of the mekong delta is home to 18 million people, or 22 percent of vietnam's population. it provides 40 percent of vietnam's cultivated land surface and produces more than a quarter of the country's gdp. half of vietnam's rice is produced in the mekong delta, 60 percent of its fish-shrimp harvest, and 80 percent of vietnam's fruit crop. ninety percent of vietnam's total national rice export comes from the mekong. flooding plays an important role in the economy and culture of the area. people live with and depend on flood cycles, but within certain bounds. for example, flood depths of between half a meter up to three meters are considered part of the normal flood regime upon which livelihoods depend. these are so-called "nice floods" [ngap nong] by vietnamese living in the delta, such as upstream in the an giang province. flood depths beyond this such as between three and four meters [ngap vua], however, challenge resilience capacities of affected people and often have harrowing effects on livelihoods. floods exceeding the four meter mark, called "ngap sau" for severe flooding, have increased in magnitude and frequency in vietnam in recent decades.83 in phnom penh (cambodia) one migrant from the delta noted, "flooding occurs every year at my former living place. i could not grow and harvest crops. life therefore was very miserable. besides, my family did not know what else we could do other than growing rice and fishing. flooding sometimes threatened our lives. so we came here to find another livelihood."84
What does Agrawal (2002) point out about men and women's roles?
agrawal (2002) points out that men tend to perform agricultural operations where they have a dominant role involving animals or tools, whereas women's jobs depend on manual labour, and hence have a lower status
What brought about a rising cost of agricultural labour?
often women are the only family members remaining in the village to tend to the fields while the men look for city jobs. the result is an acute shortage of manpower, and rising cost of agricultural labour
What was a successful example in Dhanpau village?
successful examples of nearby villages: in dhanpau village, women made and sold organic manure
agrawal (2002) points out that men tend to perform agricultural operations where they have a dominant role involving animals or tools, whereas women's jobs depend on manual labour, and hence have a lower status. often women are the only family members remaining in the village to tend to the fields while the men look for city jobs. the result is an acute shortage of manpower, and rising cost of agricultural labour. several girls are enrolled in city schools and colleges but go to the city only to appear for examinations, while working on the fields the rest of the year. but there is also some awareness of the successful examples of nearby villages: in dhanpau village, women made and sold organic manure, while in luhan village, farmers formed a cooperative society and were able to command good prices for chillies and gagli 5.5. coping measures households engaged in agriculture can employ a range of strategies in responding to water scarcity narain, 2003 ):
What is based CMIP5 Climate Models ?
this study is based on twenty-two coupled general circulation models (cgcms or this study is based on twenty-two coupled general circulation models
What is the historical run is forced ?
observed atmospheric composition changes which reflect both anthropogenic (greenhouse gases) and natural (volcanic influences, solar forcing, aerosols and emissions of short-lived species
What is the based model annual ?
sst biases are calculated as the difference between the model and observational ssts in the annual (seasonal) mean values during the period from 1900 to 2005
cmip5 climate models this study is based on twenty-two coupled general circulation models (cgcms or this study is based on twenty-two coupled general circulation models (cgcms or climate models) outputs of the "historical" simulations provided to the intergovernmental panel on climate change's fifth assessment report (ipcc-ar5). the model data can be downloaded from the website of the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (cmip5)1 (http://cmippcmdi.llnl.gov/cmip5/). the historical run is forced by observed atmospheric composition changes which reflect both anthropogenic (greenhouse gases) and natural (volcanic influences, solar forcing, aerosols and emissions of short-lived species and their precursors) sources and, for the first time, including time-evolving land cover. these historical runs cover much of the industrial period from the mid-nineteenth century to the near present and are sometimes referred to as "twentieth century" simulations. the modeling center, country, model name and letter denotation for each model used in this study are shown in table s1. because we are interested in large-scale features, unless otherwise specified, all model outputs are interpolated to a 1deg latitude by 1deg longitude grid. we choose the period 1900-2005 for our calculations and analyses. the model annual (seasonal) sst biases are calculated as the difference between the model and observational ssts in the annual (seasonal) mean values during the period from 1900 to 2005.
What is the suspicion regarding dust?
could lower the surface albedo sufficiently to help deglaciate a snowball state
what is the problem with dust as a route for defrosting?
is that it gets buried quickly by new snow, which limits its impact
which pacemakers prepare the planet for thaw?
co2 accumulation
it has long been suspected that dust could lower the surface albedo sufficiently to help deglaciate a snowball state. the problem with dust as a route to deglaciation is that it gets buried quickly by new snow, which limits its impact. however, the peculiar hydrological cycle of the snowball state, with its net ablation zone in the tropics and global sea-glacier flow converging ice into that region, provides a way around this dilemma. the flow and ablation results in nearly all the dust that falls globally in the course of a snowball accumulating in a dust moraine in the tropics. modeling has confirmed that this process easily can trigger deglaciation at co2 concentrations below 10% (abbot pierrehumbert 2010). we think that the mudball, perhaps abetted by somewhat stronger cloud feedbacks than foam produces and by the warming effect of dust aerosols (abbot halevy 2010), provides the most viable route to deglaciating a snowball. the mudball hypothesis does not obviate the role of co2 accumulation; the warming from co2 is still one of the pacemakers that primes the planet for deglaciation, although the timescale for accumulation of the dust moraine does not differ greatly from the timescale for co2 accumulation.
Which study shows there is correlation between climate and economic performance?
peter halden's analysis
In future, which becomes the primary driver of performance?
climate change becomes the primary driver of performance
How future economic performance is predicted ?
using projections of future climate warming, future economic performance is predicted for the twenty-first century
a second example of climate reductionism at work is peter halden's analysis of the geopolitics of climate change from an international relations perspective the complex relationships that exist between climate and economic performance are first reduced to a dependent relationship between temperature and gdp per capita and then, using projections of future climate warming, future economic performance is predicted for the twenty-first century. the many subtleties and multiple contingencies of national and regional economic performance are ignored or suppressed. climate reductionism opens up the prospect of developing a narrative about future economic growth in which climate change becomes the primary driver of performance.
What factor shortens the crop griwth period of maize in Zimbabwe?
important examples are the works of, firstly, matarira et al (1995) who used global climatic models and dynamic crop growth models and established that maize yields, the most widely grown crop in zimbabwe, decrease dramatically under dry land conditions in some regions (sometimes up to 30%), even under full irrigation conditions due to temperature increases that shorten the crop growth period
What were the findings related to temperature and its effects on crops using the Ricardian cross-sectional model?
secondly, the work by nhemachena and mano (2007) who applied the ricardian cross-sectional model and found out that higher summer temperatures have mostly negative
although there are numerous recent regional and national studies of economic and agricultural productivity impact of climate change and variability, or the risk of it, and adaptation strategies in zimbabwe and other southern african countries (e.g., matarira et al 1995; nhemachena and mano, 2007; kinuthia, 1997; buckland, 1997; downing, 1992; mendelsohn, 2000; jones and thornton (2003) in morton (2007), there has been little focus on the views and perceptions of the smallholder farmers about climate change and variability and their effect on specific agricultural activities. the visible tendencies in the literature include: firstly, quantitative economic and productivity projections of future impacts from modeling studies at a variety of geographical scales, focusing mainly on staple smallholder crops, or reviewing of data from such studies at regional level. secondly, there has been much focus on adaptation, based on qualitative data and taking the characterization of impacts as largely straight forward tasks (morton, 2007). important examples are the works of, firstly, matarira et al (1995) who used global climatic models and dynamic crop growth models and established that maize yields, the most widely grown crop in zimbabwe, decrease dramatically under dry land conditions in some regions (sometimes up to 30%), even under full irrigation conditions due to temperature increases that shorten the crop growth period. secondly, the work by nhemachena and mano (2007) who applied the ricardian cross-sectional model and found out that higher summer temperatures have mostly negative
Are people willing to become vegetarians more likely to believe in the affects the meat industry has on climate change?
those willing to change the amount of meat or dairy products they consume were more likely to agree strongly that human activities contribute to climate change than those who were not willing to do so. this suggests those who would like to change their meat or dairy consumption are more engaged with climate change. among those willing to change their meat and/or dairy
Is people willingness to give up dairy affected by their views on climate change?
among those willing to change their meat and/or dairy consumption, 61 per cent strongly agreed that human activities contribute to climate change. this compares with 47 per cent of those who were unwilling to change their meat consumption, and 51 per cent of
What is one reason someone might stop consuming meat and dairy?
willing to change the amount of meat or dairy products they consume were more likely to agree strongly that human activities contribute to climate change than those who were not willing to do so. this suggests those who would like to change their meat or dairy consumption are more engaged with climate change. among those willing to change their meat and/or dairy consumption, 61 per cent strongly agreed that human activities contribute to climate change. this compares with 47 per cent of those who were unwilling
those willing to change the amount of meat or dairy products they consume were more likely to agree strongly that human activities contribute to climate change than those who were not willing to do so. this suggests those who would like to change their meat or dairy consumption are more engaged with climate change. among those willing to change their meat and/or dairy consumption, 61 per cent strongly agreed that human activities contribute to climate change. this compares with 47 per cent of those who were unwilling to change their meat consumption, and 51 per cent of those who were unwilling to change their dairy consumption.
What does the Project Title Objective Partners Rift Valley Fever Database for the Greater Horn of Africa (Completed) create?
project title objective partners rift valley fever database for the greater horn of africa (completed) create a suitable database for the modeling and prediction of rift valley fever outbreaks in the greater horn of africa
What does the African Union-Interafrican Bureau of Animal Resources Dust and Dry Season Analysis for the Sahel (Completed) create?
african union-interafrican bureau of animal resources dust and dry season analysis for the sahel (completed) create health-relevant gridded climate and environmental data sets for use in regional and local analysis of climate/land use/health interactions
What does the University Abdou Moumouni of Niamey, Niger Disaster and Risk Field Assessments: Natural Hazards Disaster Review of the December 2004 Tsunami-Affected Areas of India (Completed) Contribute to?
university abdou moumouni of niamey, niger disaster and risk field assessments: natural hazards disaster review of the december 2004 tsunami-affected areas of india (completed) contribute to the sustainable risk mitigation approach in india, in particular: (1) to construct a geographical information systematic historical record of the diverse set of hazards that triggered the disasters in the india affected areas during the last century, and (2) recommend the application of wise land use policies which combine knowledge and lessons from the past disaster history of the affected areas
project title objective partners rift valley fever database for the greater horn of africa (completed) create a suitable database for the modeling and prediction of rift valley fever outbreaks in the greater horn of africa. african union-interafrican bureau of animal resources dust and dry season analysis for the sahel (completed) create health-relevant gridded climate and environmental data sets for use in regional and local analysis of climate/land use/health interactions. university abdou moumouni of niamey, niger disaster and risk field assessments: natural hazards disaster review of the december 2004 tsunami-affected areas of india (completed) contribute to the sustainable risk mitigation approach in india, in particular: (1) to construct a geographical information systematic historical record of the diverse set of hazards that triggered the disasters in the india affected areas during the last century, and (2) recommend the application of wise land use policies which combine knowledge and lessons from the past disaster history of the affected areas. ciesin center for research on environmental decisions, cu el nino drought impacts in 2002/2003: a comparative study of national media coverage (completed) use social scientific methods of media analysis to understand the social effects of and responses to climate anomalies in particular countries by reviewing publicly available national media coverage. university corporation for atmospheric research earth institute, columbia university
What are the effects of climate change in polar marine ecosystems?
large shifts in species size, spatial range, and seasonality of production that can cascade directly to valued ecosystem services, such as the health of large marine mammals and seabirds as well as fisheries
What are Polar marine ecosystems tied to?
polar marine ecosystems are intimately tied to sea-ice extent and seawater temperatures, which together influence food sources, organismal growth and reproduction, and biogeochemical cycles
How are polar fishes and invertebrates effected?
many polar fishes and invertebrates are adapted to contemporary cold conditions and have limited tolerance to seemingly small increases in water temperature
currently, the physical climate of the poles is changing as fast or faster than anywhere on earth, and thus the poles serve as both a bellwether of climate change and an illustration of the complex ecosystem-level consequences that we can expect elsewhere. as a result, polar marine ecosystems are experiencing large shifts in species size, spatial range, and seasonality of production that can cascade directly to valued ecosystem services, such as the health of large marine mammals and seabirds as well as fisheries (see sidebar climate impacts on ecosystem services from the sea). polar marine ecosystems are intimately tied to sea-ice extent and seawater temperatures, which together influence food sources, organismal growth and reproduction, and biogeochemical cycles. many polar fishes and invertebrates are adapted to contemporary cold conditions and have limited tolerance to seemingly small increases in water temperature (somero 2012). life cycles and
Prediction on how climate change will affect what sort of production is lacking?
prediction on how climate change will aff ect agricultural production is lacking
The use of what two things might still make cash crops financially viable in areas otherwise unsuitable due to climate change?
with climate change, many areas might become unsuitable for cash crops; however, because of market forces, high use of irrigation and pesticides might still make it fi nancially viable
What do the important decisions to ensure a region's or country's food security in spite of climate change need?
these important decisions need information to ensure a region's or country's food security in spite of climate change
prediction on how climate change will aff ect agricultural production is lacking. some of the negative eff ects of climate change on agriculture could be off set by better practices, more irrigation, and use of genetically modifi ed crops. however, in some areas a complete change of agricultural practices and type of crops grown will be needed. this is both an informational and social challenge. with climate change, many areas might become unsuitable for cash crops; however, because of market forces, high use of irrigation and pesticides might still make it fi nancially viable. but the land might be more suitable and more environmentally sustainable if used for mixed food crops. these important decisions need information to ensure a region's or country's food security in spite of climate change. one suggestion of multinational biotechnology corporations and some governments is that the eff ects of
What is a community of plants and animals characterized by?
a typical assemblage of species and their abundances
What is the range of the extent of an ecosystem?
from very small spatial scales to, ultimately, the entire earth
What was the term El Nino initially used to describe?
a warm-water current that periodically flows along the coast of ecuador and peru, disrupting the local fishery
e. ecological community a community of plants and animals characterised by a typical assemblage of species and their abundances. see also ecosystem ecosystem a system of living organisms interacting with each other and their physical environment. the boundaries of what could be called an ecosystem are somewhat arbitrary, depending on the focus of interest or study. thus, the extent of an ecosystem may range from very small spatial scales to, ultimately, the entire earth. el nino-southern oscillation (enso) the term el nino was initially used to describe a warm-water current that periodically flows along the coast of ecuador and peru, disrupting the local fishery. it has since become identified with a basinwide warming of the tropical pacific east of the dateline. this oceanic event is associated with a fluctuation of a global-scale tropical and subtropical surface pressure pattern called the southern oscillation this coupled atmosphere -ocean phenomenon, with preferred time scales of two to about seven years, is collectively known as el nino-southern oscillation or enso it is often measured by the surface pressure anomaly difference between darwin and tahiti and the sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial pacific. during an enso event, the prevailing trade winds weaken, reducing upwelling and altering ocean currents such that the sea surface temperatures warm, further weakening the trade winds. this event has a great impact on the wind, sea surface temperature and precipitation patterns in the tropical pacific. it has climatic effects throughout the pacific region and in many other parts of the world, through global teleconnections. the cold phase of enso is called la nina emissions scenario a plausible representation of the future development of emissions of substances that are potentially radiatively active (e.g., greenhouse gases aerosols based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about driving forces (such as demographic and socioeconomic development, technological change) and their key relationships. concentration scenarios derived from emission scenarios, are used as input to a climate model to compute climate projections see sres scenarios endemic restricted or peculiar to a locality or region. with regard to human health, endemic can refer to a disease or agent present or usually prevalent in a population or geographical area at all times. energy the amount of work or heat delivered. energy is classified in a variety of types and becomes useful to human ends when it flows from one place to another or is converted from one type into another. primary energy (also referred to as energy sources is the energy embodied in natural resources (e.g., coal, crude oil, natural gas, uranium) that has not undergone any anthropogenic conversion. this primary energy needs to be converted and transported to become usable energy (e.g., light). renewable energy is obtained from the continuing or repetitive currents of energy occurring in the natural environment, and includes noncarbon technologies such as solar energy, hydropower, wind, tide and waves, and geothermal heat, as well as carbon neutral technologies such as biomass. embodied energy is the energy used to produce a material substance (such as processed metals, or building materials), taking into account energy used at the manufacturing facility (zero order), energy used in producing the materials that are used in the manufacturing facility (first order), and so on. ensemble a group of parallel model simulations used for climate projections variation of the results across the ensemble members gives an estimate of uncertainty ensembles made with the same model but different initial conditions only characterise the uncertainty associated with internal climate variability whereas multi-model ensembles including simulations by several models also include the impact of model differences. perturbedparameter ensembles, in which model parameters are varied in a systematic manner, aim to produce a more objective estimate of modelling uncertainty than is possible with traditional multimodel ensembles. epidemic occurring suddenly in incidence rates clearly in excess of normal expectancy, applied especially to infectious diseases but may also refer to any disease, injury, or other health-related event occurring in such outbreaks. equilibrium line the boundary between the region on a glacier where there is a net annual loss of ice mass (ablation area) and that where there is a net annual gain (accumulation area). the altitude of this boundary is referred to as equilibrium line altitude erosion the process of removal and transport of soil and rock by weathering, mass wasting, and the action of streams, glaciers waves, winds, and underground water. eutrophication the process by which a body of water (often shallow) becomes (either naturally or by pollution) rich in dissolved nutrients, with a seasonal deficiency in dissolved oxygen. evaporation the transition process from liquid to gaseous state. evapotranspiration the combined process of water evaporation from the earth's surface and transpiration from vegetation. external forcing external forcing refers to a forcing agent outside the climate
What is turbulent diffusion?
a tendency of any substance to uniformly spread itself about all of the available space
What are the main factors of effecitve aeration?
creation of interfaces and renewal of interfaces
What is the opposite of photosythesis?
the respiration reaction
turbulent diffusion in a quiescent water body, molecular diffusion prevails. this diffusion may be described as a tendency of any substance to uniformly spread itself about all of the available space. however, this mechanism is very slow and requires a long time for the gas to reach the deepest layers of the water body. themechanismof turbulentdiffusion ismuchmoreefficient,becauseitinvolves the main factors of an effective aeration: creation of interfaces and renewal of interfaces. the first one is important, because it is through these interfaces that gas exchange occurs. the second one is also significant, because the fast renewal of the interfaces permits that localised saturation points are not formed, besides conducting the dissolved gas to the various depths of the liquid mass, as a result of the mixing. the diffusion condition to prevail is a function of the hydrodynamic characteristics of the water body. a shallow river with rapids presents excellent conditions for an efficient turbulence. in these conditions, molecular diffusion is negligible. on the other hand, in lakes, molecular diffusion tends to predominate, unless wind promotes good mixing and interface renewal. b) photosynthesis photosynthesis is the main process used by autotrophic organisms to synthesise organic matter, being a characteristic of organisms containing chlorophyll. the process takes place only in the presence of light energy, according to the following simplified equation (there are many intermediate steps): co2 h2o light energy - organic matter o2 (3.4) photosynthesis reaction is exactly opposite to the respiration reaction. while photosynthesis is a process of fixing light energy and forming glucose molecules of high energy potential, respiration is essentially the opposite, that is, release of this energy for subsequent use in metabolic processes (branco, 1976). light dependence controls the distribution of photosynthetic organisms to locations to where light is present. in waters with a certain turbidity, such as from soil particles or suspended solids from waste discharges, the possibility of the presence of algae is smaller and, as a result, so is the photosynthetic activity. this is seen in the first self-purification zones, where the predominance is almost exclusively of heterotrophic organisms. in these zones, respiration surpasses production. 90 to wastewater characteristics, treatment and disposal
many adaptation decisions are made at the regional level or the(blank) level?.
many adaptation decisions are made at the regional or local level
What has been developed to address the concerns of biological interactions between regions?
although research frameworks have been developed to help address these concerns
there are few examples of these being used to facilitate economic analyses at the (blank) level. ?
there are few examples of these being used to facilitate economic analyses at the regional level
at present, most costing studies have focused on modelling the impacts of climate change at the national or international level (references 18, 46; see also table 4). this means that changes and impacts are aggregated over large regions, so the differential impacts of climate change on smaller areas are often lost. nor is such analysis consistent with the fact that many adaptation decisions are made at the regional or local level.(59)regional analysis of the economic consequences of climate change is limited by the paucity of regional economic data and the difficulties involved in considering economic and biological interactions between regions. although research frameworks have been developed to help address these concerns (e.g., reference 46), there are few examples of these being used to facilitate economic analyses at the regional level.
What happens if the first state of planning or designing fails?
this stage is highly important, since the selected alternative will be a result of all the considerations and studies completed in this phase
What are the fundamental elements of the preliminary studies?
preliminary studies are an integral part of the planning stage of the design, which comprise the following fundamental elements
How is the evaluation of the wastewater done?
including a quantitative and qualitative evaluation of the wastewater to be treated
the initial phase of a planning or a design corresponds to the preliminary studies these comprise the overall characterisation of the system to be designed, including a quantitative and qualitative evaluation of the wastewater to be treated, the definition of the treatment objectives and a simple technical-economical screening of the various wastewater treatment processes potentially applicable. this stage is highly important, since the selected alternative will be a result of all the considerations and studies completed in this phase. consequently, efforts should be directed to obtaining data and subsequently drawing the conclusions, always aiming at the highest possible accuracy and reliability, since the technical success and the economic feasibility of the chosen alternative depend largely on this initial analysis. preliminary studies are an integral part of the planning stage of the design, which comprise the following fundamental elements:
Write the name of the concept of this study ?
carbon literacy
Write the suggestion about carbon literacy ?
the notion also suggests an appreciation that much consumption (and hence carbon emissions) is inconspicuous, habitual and routine, rather than the result of conscious decision--making
Write the individual cognitive decision about consumption ?
individual cognitive decisions about consumption as mediated through socially--shaped lifestyle choices, resulting in sets of practices which are in turn delimited by social systems of provision and the rules and resources of macro--level structures. that is, individual choices both shape and are shaped by wider social structures
in contrast to the concept of 'carbon literacy', then, carbon capability is not defined in a narrow individualistic sense of solely knowledge, skills and motivations (although these are important components); rather, the concept of carbon capability implies an understanding of the limits of individual action and where these encounter wider societal institutions and infrastructure, and so prompt the need for collective action and other governance solutions. the notion also suggests an appreciation that much consumption (and hence carbon emissions) is inconspicuous, habitual and routine, rather than the result of conscious decision--making (van vliet et al 2005). consistent with the literature on social practices and structuration (e.g., giddens, 1984, spaargaren, 2003), we see individual cognitive decisions about consumption as mediated through socially--shaped lifestyle choices, resulting in sets of practices which are in turn delimited by social systems of provision and the rules and resources of macro--level structures. that is, individual choices both shape and are shaped by wider social structures.
What is the title of the dependency on capital malleability. ?
fuel substitution options in the electricity sector: the dependency on capital malleability
i. sue wing energy policy 34 (2006) 3847-3869 3868 (but were afraid to ask). technical note no. 6, mit joint program on the science and policy of global change, cambridge, ma. sue wing, i., forthcoming. the synthesis of bottom-up and top-down approaches to climate policy modeling: electric power technology detail in a social accounting framework. energy economics. vo" gele, s., hoffmann, t., markewitz, p., 2004. fuel substitution options in the electricity sector: the dependency on capital malleability. paper presented at the international conference on input-output and general equilibrium: data, modeling, and policy analysis, brussels, september 2-4. wilson, d., swisher, j., 1993. exploring the gap: top-down versus bottomup analyses of the cost of mitigating global warming. energy policy 21, 249-263.
Does nuclear power contribute to global warming?
there were two true-false items--"nuclear power generation contributes to global warming" (nuclear) and "there will be positive as well as negative effects from human-caused global warming" (mixed
Is it true that human caused global warming may cause floods?
the correct answer involved affirming one or another proposition associated with the risk climate change poses to human beings (e.g., "human-caused global warming will result in flooding of many coastal regions
Is global warming a threat to the world regardless of what you believe in?
but both classes of subjects were substantially more likely to indicate that climate scientists' belief in global warming will cause some specified harm regardless of whether that response was correct
inspection of the relationship of the respondents' answers to particular items adds depth to this interpretation of the data. there were two true-false items--"nuclear power generation contributes to global warming" (nuclear) and "there will be positive as well as negative effects from human-caused global warming" (mixed)--that were answered correctly by approximately the same number of respondents who answered them incorrectly. the remaining items can be divided into two classes: "easy" questions, which were answered correctly by substantially more than 50% of the participants, and "hard" ones, which were answered incorrectly by substantially more than 50%. the feature of the items that distinguished "easy" from "hard" was the valence of the correct answer in relation to global-warming risks. where the correct answer involved affirming one or another proposition associated with the risk climate change poses to human beings (e.g., "human-caused global warming will result in flooding of many coastal regions"), a substantial majority of respondents were likely to get the question right. but where the correct answer involved rejecting one or another proposition attributing risk to climate change (e.g., "human-caused global warming will increase the risk of skin cancer in human beings"), a substantial majority of the respondents selected the incorrect response. in other words, there was a strong tendency among the respondents to attribute to scientists belief in the asserted climate-change risk independently of whether climate scientists do in fact see that conclusion as supported by the best available evidence. this is strong evidence that the vast majority of subjects were guided not by comprehension of climate science but by a generalized affective orientation toward climate change, the valence of which determined their response to the various items. that most subjects selected responses that are consistent with a higher rather than a lower degree of risk suggests that for the vast majority of them global warming elicits strong negative feelings, likely of fear or dread or some other emotion known to dispose individuals to view a putative risk source as dangerous (slovic et al., 2004). this pattern, moreover, characterized the responses of subjects of both leftand right-leaning political outlooks. left-leaning subjects were somewhat more likely to select the correct answer when the items correctly attributed belief in a climate-change risk proposition to climate scientists, and right-leaning ones somewhat more likely to do so when the item incorrectly attributed belief in such a proposition to scientists. but both classes of subjects were substantially more likely to indicate that climate scientists' belief in global warming will cause some specified harm regardless of whether that response was correct. right-leaning and left-leaning respondents alike, one might infer, were responding to the ocsi items on the basis of an affective orientation that disposed them to credit responses attributing high risk to climate change. this result implies that those who scored the highest on the ocsi assessment were necessarily the ones who consistently selected responses contrary to their cultural predispositions on climate
What has also been uncovered by recent studies?
recent studies also have uncovered some indirect connections between dust and climate that have important implications for past climates
Why do Elemental methods have limited ability to resolve different dust source regions?
elemental methods have limited ability to resolve different dust source regions because no elements have been found to be uniquely diagnostic for a specific region
Are efforts to control dust sources through irrigation projects and by altering land-use practices likely to continue?
efforts to control dust sources through irrigation projects and by altering land-use practices are likely to continue if not expand in the future
in addition to the disturbances caused by human activities, there also have been attempts by humans to mitigate the effects of dust storms through largescale engineering projects. for example, there is some evidence that a tree-planting program in northern china, dubbed a the great green wall b has reduced the frequency and duration of dust storms in z the gobi region since the 1960s parungo et al., 1994 whether that project for controlling dust fluxes is successful in the long term remains to be seen; however, efforts to control dust sources through irrigation projects and by altering land-use practices are likely to continue if not expand in the future. the combination of natural climate change and the perturbations caused by human activities have surely altered dust fluxes over time, but studies of modern dust are highly complementary to paleoclimate research because they help establish a physical basis for dust production, transport and deposition. recent studies also have uncovered some indirect connections between dust and climate that have important implications for past climates. the section that follows introduces some of the methods that have been used to evaluate both modern and historical sources for eolian material. 2. approaches to studying the sources for mineral aerosol chemical, isotopic and mineralogical methods have been used in attempts to distinguish the source regions for atmospheric dust and eolian deposits; however, establishing the provenance for atmospheric dust has proven to be an elusive goal. elemental methods have limited ability to resolve different dust source regions because no elements have been found to be uniquely diagnostic for a specific region; however, the ratios of elements--as opposed to their absolute concentrations--have shown some promise for discriminating dust source regions. the elemental ratio approach, which has made use of data for al, ca, fe, k, mg, sc and si, has been applied to studies of dust source regions in africa z coude-gaussen et al., 1987; bergametti et al., 1989;
What are two potential adaptation strategies that have been identified and discussed in the literature include with regards to Prince Edward Island?
accommodation, and enhanced awareness-raising and public education
Looking at potential adaptation strategies , give an example of identification and monitoring of hazards.
identification and monitoring of hazards (e.g., flood mapping
Looking at potential adaptation strategies , give an example of managed retreat or avoidance.
managed retreat or avoidance (e.g., restricted development in sensitive areas
in prince edward island, potential adaptation strategies that have been identified and discussed in the literature include identification and monitoring of hazards (e.g., flood mapping), managed retreat or avoidance (e.g., restricted development in sensitive areas), accommodation, and enhanced awareness-raising and public education.(19)the most appropriate adaptation measures will depend on the conditions at the specific site of concern. for example, retreat is likely not a viable option in urban settings such as charlottetown. in these areas, strategies that incorporate elements of accommodation and protection would have to be considered, with both hard and soft protection likely necessary to protect valuable coastal infrastructure.(19)
What is the first question this study is addressing?
research question 1 how do messages that emphasize the local versus global impacts of climate change influence citizens' engagement in climate change issues
What is the second question this study addresses?
research question 2 does this receptivity depend on the extent to which citizens feel attached to their local areas
What is the third hypothesis?
the third hypothesis is that place attachment and the message condition will interact: we expect that the greatest engagement will be observed among attached individuals who receive local messages
this study addresses two main questions: research question 1 how do messages that emphasize the local versus global impacts of climate change influence citizens' engagement in climate change issues? research question 2 does this receptivity depend on the extent to which citizens feel attached to their local areas? we expect that engagement with climate change issues depends on the local versus global frame of the message and the strength of one's place attachment. therefore, the first hypothesis is that local messages will be the most effective message frame. the second hypothesis, based on the previous literature on place attachment and proenvironmental behavior, is that place attachment will be associated with increased climate change engagement. the third hypothesis is that place attachment and the message condition will interact: we expect that the greatest engagement will be observed among attached individuals who receive local messages.
What is the logical next step?
the logical next step is to use that estimated relationship to predict future impacts due to anthropogenic climate change
if the econometrician has successfully estimated the causal " dose-response " relationship between socioeconomic outcomes and historical weather or climate data, often the logical next step is to use that estimated relationship to predict future impacts due to anthropogenic climate change. this step requires making forecasts of future climate under the assumption of heightened atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, which is usually accomplished by employing output from a spatially explicit physics-based model of the global climate, which, as discussed in the is known as a gcm. this section provides an overview of gcms and discusses some of the major potential pitfalls of using these models in the simulation of future economic impacts of climate change.
What are known or can be calculated for all significant outcomes for all decision options ?
likelihoods and consequences
What is a purely quantitative or objective process that leads to an unambiguous 'preferred option'?
risk assessment
What is linked to assessment of risk to account for complex objectives, constraints and values which cannot be simply quantified?
range of options appraisal techniques
decision-making on the basis of risk is relatively straightforward if several conditions are met: * the analysis includes all significant hazards and impacts that could affect and be affected by a decision; * likelihoods and consequences are known or can be calculated for all significant outcomes for all decision options (now and in the future); * costs of implementing all decision options are known; * consequences can all be expressed in a common unit of 'currency'that is comprehensible to all stakeholders; * the decision-maker is ' risk neutral ', or if not risk neutral is able to specify a preference for particular types of risk. (this may include a preference for high probability/low consequence events over low probability/high consequence events. it might include a preference to address risks where the uncertainty is low, compared to those where the uncertainty is high.) these conditions are rarely met in full. risk assessment is rarely a purely quantitative or objective process that leads to an unambiguous 'preferred option'. a range of options appraisal techniques is linked to assessment of risk to account for complex objectives, constraints and values which cannot be simply quantified (see table 13 in part 1 for further details). in addition, the decision-maker will need to be aware of important differences between the public perception of risk and the results of any 'objective' risk appraisal.
What are the two approaches that have dominated theoretical climate dynamics?
the nonlinear deterministic (lorenz, jas, 1963) approach and the linear stochastic one (hasselmann, tellus, 1976
what are two models discussed here?
the first of the two models studied herein is a stochastically forced version of the classical lorenz (1963) model. the second one is a low-dimensional, nonlinear stochastic model of the el nino-southern oscillation (enso
Who works together as per the talk represents?
this talk represents joint work with mickael d. chekroun (ecole normale superieure, paris, france, and university of california, los angeles, usa; chekro@lmd.ens.fr) and eric simonnet (institut non-lineaire de nice, sophia antipolis, france; eric.simonnet@inln.cnrs.fr
this talk reports on attempts at the unification of two approaches that have dominated theoretical climate dynamics since its inception in the 1960s: the nonlinear deterministic (lorenz, jas, 1963) approach and the linear stochastic one (hasselmann, tellus, 1976). this unification, via the theory of random dynamical systems (rds), allows one to consider the detailed geometric structure of the random attractors associated with nonlinear, stochastically perturbed systems. these attractors extend the concept of strange attractors from autonomous dynamical systems to non-autonomous systems with random forcing. a high-resolution numerical study of two "toy" models is carried out in their respective phase spaces; it allows one to obtain a good approximation of their global random attractors, as well as of the time-dependent invariant measures supported by these attractors. the latter measures are shown to be random sinai-ruelle-bowen (srb) measures; such measures have an intuitive, physical interpretation, obtained essentially by "flowing" the entire phase space onto the attractor. the first of the two models studied herein is a stochastically forced version of the classical lorenz (1963) model. the second one is a low-dimensional, nonlinear stochastic model of the el nino-southern oscillation (enso), based on that of timmermann and jin (grl, 2002). in spite of their highly idealized character, both these models are of fundamental interest for climate dynamics and provide insight into its predictability. this talk represents joint work with mickael d. chekroun (ecole normale superieure, paris, france, and university of california, los angeles, usa; chekro@lmd.ens.fr) and eric simonnet (institut non-lineaire de nice, sophia antipolis, france; eric.simonnet@inln.cnrs.fr).
How does the cross-validation procedure work?
cross-validation procedure
What was the particular variable in the method?
particular variable
What variables are related to Quaternary climate?
quaternary climate
these findings were roughly confirmed by the application of brt. according to a cross-validation procedure, the brt models explained 59.3, 40.2 and 36.4% of the total deviance for bsor-a, bsim-a and bnes-a respectively. partial dependency plots are presented in fig. 3 to show the effect of a particular variable on bsim-a and bnes-a after accounting for the average effects of all other variables in the model. fitted functions by the brt model were frequently nonlinear and varied in shape for both bsim-a and bnes-a (fig. 3). four variables related to quaternary climate stability (fig. 3a), geographical isolation (fig. 3b) and contemporary environmental dissimilarity (fig. 3c,d)
What is being presented in this section?
in this section, we present an analysis of processes affecting ablation and snowfall over northeastern canada
Why can the model not evaluate variations in ablation directly?
we cannot evaluate variations in ablation directly since our model does not contain glacier dynamics
in this section, we present an analysis of processes affecting ablation and snowfall over northeastern canada (ne canada: land points 100-60  w, 60-75  n), a region associated with the initiation of the laurentide ice sheet. to a large extent these findings also hold for the location of the fennoscandian ice sheet that covered northwestern eurasia (nw eurasia: land points 0-90  e, 60-75  n). however, there are some potentially important differences between these two regions that will be discussed in the following section. here we present analyses of ablation and snowfall in terms of tendencies or qualitative assessments of how various processes are contributing or inhibiting either of these quantities. the interconnected nature of thermodynamics and dynamics within the atmosphere makes it difficult to separate out processes in each of these categories in a budgetary sense. where possible, we will point out the prominence of one process over another. we cannot evaluate variations in ablation directly since our model does not contain glacier dynamics.
Where the search results and articles used are presented?
the searches performed, along with the number of results for each and the number of articles used, are presented in box 2.2. terms were searched for within the document text
What was the aim of this search?
the aim was to find articles with a central focus on climate change and development issues, and together, the searches represent a thorough trawl for relevant articles
What was the selection based on and what is the outcome?
initial selection was based upon the title of the article and, if necessary, a skim-read of the first few paragraphs. all articles from these initial selections were subsequently read closely and discarded if found not to focus on climate change and development. this process resulted in a database of 158 articles
the searches performed, along with the number of results for each and the number of articles used, are presented in box 2.2. terms were searched for within the document text. the aim was to find articles with a central focus on climate change and development issues, and together, the searches represent a thorough trawl for relevant articles. initial selection was based upon the title of the article and, if necessary, a skim-read of the first few paragraphs. all articles from these initial selections were subsequently read closely and discarded if found not to focus on climate change and development. this process resulted in a database of 158 articles.
What does the analysis of the eight CMIO3 models consist of?
the eight different cmip3 models forced with 2 3 co2 that were analyzed show similar spatial patterns of feedback with similar seasonal behavior
What are the biggest model differences?
we find the greatest intermodel differences in the annual global mean equilibrium temperature response come from the water vapor plus lapse rate feedback followed by the shortwave cloud feedback, unlike dufresne and bony (2008) who found the cloud feedback had by far the greatest intermodel differences
What is seasonal transportation?
the seasonal transport term includes both horizontal heat transport and heat storage and further study is required to separate these terms
the eight different cmip3 models forced with 2 3 co2 that were analyzed show similar spatial patterns of feedback with similar seasonal behavior. the greatest intermodel differences are in the pattern of shortwave cloud and longwave cloudy-sky feedback in the tropics, in the water vapor plus lapse rate feedback in the tropics, and in the sh sea ice albedo feedback in summer. we find the greatest intermodel differences in the annual global mean equilibrium temperature response come from the water vapor plus lapse rate feedback followed by the shortwave cloud feedback, unlike dufresne and bony (2008) who found the cloud feedback had by far the greatest intermodel differences. although in the annual mean the greatest contribution to polar amplification is from the albedo feedback, there is a strong coincident negative contribution from shortwave cloud feedback. considerable positive contributions from the longwave cloudy sky feedback and the transport term occur in autumn and winter. the seasonal transport term includes both horizontal heat transport and heat storage and further study is required to separate these terms.
Why limit cumulative CO2 emissions?
a limit on cumulative co2 emissions is required to halt global-mean temperature rise to any level and hence implies that annual global co2 emissions have to become net zero at some point in time
How are the consequences of this limitation investigated?
we explore the implications of this geophysical requirement by means of a re-analysis of emission scenarios
What is the meaning of the first stage of the study?
first, we explore the typical timing of annual co2 emissions reaching net zero levels as a function of cumulative co2 emissions in the 21st century fi gure 1
a limit on cumulative co2 emissions is required to halt global-mean temperature rise to any level and hence implies that annual global co2 emissions have to become net zero at some point in time. we explore the implications of this geophysical requirement by means of a re-analysis of emission scenarios. first, we explore the typical timing of annual co2 emissions reaching net zero levels as a function of cumulative co2 emissions in the 21st century fi gure 1 then, we provide the characteristics of long-term zero emission goals for global temperature objectives fi gure 2 and look at the effectiveness of carbon neutrality targets fi gure 3 finally, we quantify the in fl uence of higher 4
What are biogenic substances?
in addition to the state variables for the 3-d water column, 4 further state variables have been added to represent 2-d pools of organic and biogenic material at the seafloor. these pools permit temporary storage of particulate material before it is returned to dissolved pools, and they represent an extremely crude submodel of the benthic ecosystem
What is the Medusa approach?
this approach contrasts with that in medusa-1.0 in which all particulate material reaching the seafloor is instantaneously remineralised (or dissolved). the primary motivation for this addition is to prevent the unrealistic acceleration of nutrient regeneration at the seafloor caused by such simplified model assumptions. this is particularly an issue in the shelf regions of the world ocean where shallower water columns and strong vertical mixing can quickly return regenerated nutrients to surface waters and unrealistically fuel extra productivity
What is the simplicity of the MEDUSA model?
the simplicity of the submodel used in medusa-2.0 means that it does not resolve the complex interplay between benthic ecosystems and seafloor sediments, but instead serves as a precursor to the inclusion of a more sophisticated treatment (e.g. rowe and deming, 2011). as in the case of the detritus (slowand fast-sinking) that fuels these seafloor pools, iron is rigidly coupled to nitrogen and does not have a separate benthic state variable. in principle, it could alternatively be coupled to carbon, but for parity with medusa-1.0, its fate remains bound to that of nitrogen. the full list of 2-d state variables represented are: bn benthic organic nitrogen mmolnm- 2
in addition to the state variables for the 3-d water column, 4 further state variables have been added to represent 2-d pools of organic and biogenic material at the seafloor. these pools permit temporary storage of particulate material before it is returned to dissolved pools, and they represent an extremely crude submodel of the benthic ecosystem. this approach contrasts with that in medusa-1.0 in which all particulate material reaching the seafloor is instantaneously remineralised (or dissolved). the primary motivation for this addition is to prevent the unrealistic acceleration of nutrient regeneration at the seafloor caused by such simplified model assumptions. this is particularly an issue in the shelf regions of the world ocean where shallower water columns and strong vertical mixing can quickly return regenerated nutrients to surface waters and unrealistically fuel extra productivity. the simplicity of the submodel used in medusa-2.0 means that it does not resolve the complex interplay between benthic ecosystems and seafloor sediments, but instead serves as a precursor to the inclusion of a more sophisticated treatment (e.g. rowe and deming, 2011). as in the case of the detritus (slowand fast-sinking) that fuels these seafloor pools, iron is rigidly coupled to nitrogen and does not have a separate benthic state variable. in principle, it could alternatively be coupled to carbon, but for parity with medusa-1.0, its fate remains bound to that of nitrogen. the full list of 2-d state variables represented are: bn benthic organic nitrogen mmolnm- 2
What was the first step to the approach?
the first step involved characterizing what we know about current vulnerability to climate-related risks, which fed directly to assess knowledge on future vulnerability to climate change
What did the review tell us?
in this review, we located literature concerning future socioeconomicbiophysical trends and conditions in the isr to provide insights on future vulnerability
What assessment of current vulnerability was also included?
assessment of current vulnerability also included the identification and characterization of adaptive strategies employed to manage climatic risks and the processes and conditions which affect their success
the analysis of the literature followed a two-step approach, similar to empirical assessments using a vulnerability framework (ford et al. 2006a 2008b pearce et al. 2010 ). the first step involved characterizing what we know about current vulnerability to climate-related risks, which fed directly to assess knowledge on future vulnerability to climate change. this began by identifying current exposure-sensitivities to climatic conditions and characterizing the nature of exposure-sensitivities in terms of the physical nature of the risks (spatial distribution, magnitude, frequency, and duration), local impacts, change over time, and determining factors. assessment of current vulnerability also included the identification and characterization of adaptive strategies employed to manage climatic risks and the processes and conditions which affect their success. to this end, we reviewed literature pertaining to all climate-related risks, adaptive strategies, and determining factors. second, future vulnerability is concerned with future trends with analysis beginning by examining how climate change will affect existing exposure-sensitivities. evaluating the extent to which institutional arrangements and socio-economic capacity will enable communities in the isr to deal with future exposure-sensitivities completed the vulnerability assessment. in this review, we located literature concerning future socioeconomicbiophysical trends and conditions in the isr to provide insights on future vulnerability. results first, the characteristics of the literature review are described in terms of the number of articles reviewed, how they are grouped, the geographic focus of the literature, how current the research is, and the type of literature. this provides a characterization of the extent and nature of literature pertaining to climate change vulnerability in the isr. second, following the vulnerability framework, a summary of current understanding on climate change vulnerability and adaption in the isr is given, research gaps are identified, and opportunities for adaptation research and planning are discussed. characteristics of the literature review 420 documents were identified using the search criteria and reviewed based on their contribution to what is currently known about climate change vulnerability in the isr. out of the publications reviewed, 217 (52%) specifically examine climate change impacts and/or adaptations in the isr (table 3 and the remaining 203 (48%) focus on environmental risks in general. among the publications that specifically address climate change impacts and/or adaptations in the isr n 217), research
Which percent of damage will cost more?
the first 10% of damage will be disproportionately cheaper than for 90% of damage
How do impacts increase with climate change?
most impacts are projected to increase non-linearly with climate change
Will the curve be definite or vary?
the curve is likely to vary greatly between different sectors and places
it is not clear what proportion of expected damage would be avoided by the proposed unfccc investment levels. most impacts are projected to increase non-linearly with climate change, and adaptation costs similarly with impacts (ipcc, 2007). therefore it will probably be very inexpensive to avoid some impacts but prohibitively expensive to avoid others; and some impacts we cannot avoid even if funds were unlimited, because the technologies are not available (e.g. in connection with ocean acidification). a simple schema of a generalised adaptation cost curve is shown in figure 2. the curve is likely to vary greatly between different sectors and places, but probably common to most cases will be that adaptation to (say) the first 10% of damage will be disproportionately cheaper than for 90% of damage. we need to be clear, then, about how much we are willing to pay for adaptation to avoid damages. to illustrate, we might aim (in a scale of reducing cost) to adapt to: (i) all those impacts that reduce human welfare, or (ii) all those that are economically feasible (i.e. cheaper to adapt to than to be borne), or (iii) all those that are affordable within a given budget constraint (for example, the size of the global adaptation fund).
Exactly what is an indication of changes in precipitation and temperature regimes?
major changes in lake level, ice-accumulation, and vegetation are indicative of changes both in precipitation and temperature regimes
When is a warm dry event evident?
a warm-dry event is evident between ca. 9500 and ca. 7300 cal
What does the uppermost sample of the pollen analysis reveal?
the uppermost sample of the pollen analysis reveals deforestation as modern human land use simplified the landscape
the manifestation of major climatic events such as the timing of deglaciation and whether, or not, the younger dryas affected andean systems has garnered considerable recent attention. even the holocene is rapidly emerging as a time of considerable interest in neotropical palaeoclimatology and palaeoecology. the holocene of the neotropics is now revealed as a time of some temperature change with precipitation:evaporation ratios fluctuating markedly. major changes in lake level, ice-accumulation, and vegetation are indicative of changes both in precipitation and temperature regimes. although global-scale forcing mechanisms may underlie some of these changes, e.g. the precessional rhythm, other variability appears to be localised. in a record from near the upper forest limit of the eastern peruvian andes, pollen, charcoal, and sedimentary data suggest that the deglaciational period from ca. 17 000 to ca. 11 500 cal. yr bp was a period of rapid climatic oscillations, set against an overall trend of warming. a warm-dry event is evident between ca. 9500 and ca. 7300 cal. yr bp, and comparisons with other regional archives suggest that it was regional in scale. a ca. 1500-yr periodicity in the magnetic susceptibility data is evident between 12 000 and 6000 cal. yr bp, reaching a peak intensity during the dry event. a weaker oscillation with a 500-600-yr periodicity is present throughout much of the holocene. the uppermost sample of the pollen analysis reveals deforestation as modern human land use simplified the landscape. copyright  2005 john wiley sons, ltd.
Is the calculation presented in the article about?
we calculated bioenergy potentials by distinguishing three fundamentally different production pathways
What are the ways to perform this calculation?
1) bioenergy crops on cropland, (2) bioenergy crops on other lands (i.e. grazing land according to the land-use dataset used in this study), and (3) residue potentials on cropland. we calculated gross potentials for bioenergy supply by assuming that the entire aboveground npp of bioenergy crops can be used to produce bioenergy, assuming a gross calorific value of drymatter biomass of 18.5 mj kg
What was the calorific value assumed in the calculation?
assuming a gross calorific value of drymatter biomass of 18.5 mj kg
we calculated bioenergy potentials by distinguishing three fundamentally different production pathways: (1) bioenergy crops on cropland, (2) bioenergy crops on other lands (i.e. grazing land according to the land-use dataset used in this study), and (3) residue potentials on cropland. we calculated gross potentials for bioenergy supply by assuming that the entire aboveground npp of bioenergy crops can be used to produce bioenergy, assuming a gross calorific value of drymatter biomass of 18.5 mj kg 1 the calculation did not take conversion or production losses into account. in order to calculate the area available for producing bioenergy on cropland, we subtracted the area required for food, feed, and fibre calculated with the biomass-balance model fig. 2 e cropland production scenario until 2050. trajectory of (a) production, (b) land-use yields harvest yield times cropping intensity) and (c) cropland area 1960 e 2050 of food crops, break-down to major crop groups. material flow data are reported in metric tons of dry-matter biomass. for sources and details, see text.
what is the climate change impacts and adaptation in canada?
the first assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation on a national scale in canada was completed in 1998. called the canada country study, the assessment was conducted by experts from government, industry, universities and nongovernmental organizations, and provided a review of scientific and technical literature on climate change impacts and adaptation
what are the impacts of climate change across canada?
the multi-volume report examined the impacts of climate change across canada's regions and economic sectors, as well as potential adaptive responses
what is the conclusion of canada country study?
among the many conclusions of the canada country study was that climate change has the potential to impact our natural resource industries, all socio-economic sectors, and therefore "canada's prosperity and well-being
the first assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation on a national scale in canada was completed in 1998. called the canada country study, the assessment was conducted by experts from government, industry, universities and nongovernmental organizations, and provided a review of scientific and technical literature on climate change impacts and adaptation. the multi-volume report examined the impacts of climate change across canada's regions and economic sectors, as well as potential adaptive responses. among the many conclusions of the canada country study was that climate change has the potential to impact our natural resource industries, all socio-economic sectors, and therefore "canada's prosperity and well-being."(15)
What are the main contributors to short-term climate extremes?
the waves are at times (either as a subseasonal event or in combination with a seasonal mean component) major contributors to short-term climate extremes such as heat waves and flooding events
Site example of cities and the year in which they occurred?
examples include the 2003 european and 2010 russian heat waves (reof 1), and the june peak of the 1988 drought and the july peak of the 1993 flood over the united states (reof 4
Which waves were important on the interannual timescales?
the significant projection of seasonal mean variability on the subseasonal reofs is consistent with earlier work (lau and weng 2002; lau et al. 2004; ding and wang 2004), which found that stationary rossby waves play an important role on interannual time scales in the teleconnections that span from eurasia to north america
the waves are at times (either as a subseasonal event or in combination with a seasonal mean component) major contributors to short-term climate extremes such as heat waves and flooding events. examples include the 2003 european and 2010 russian heat waves (reof 1), and the june peak of the 1988 drought and the july peak of the 1993 flood over the united states (reof 4). the significant projection of seasonal mean variability on the subseasonal reofs is consistent with earlier work (lau and weng 2002; lau et al. 2004; ding and wang 2004), which found that stationary rossby waves play an important role on interannual time scales in the teleconnections that span from eurasia to north america.
What is temperature?
under temperate latitudes, low temperature is usually a key factor constraining the range expansion through minimal thresholds required for the insect survival and development at the different stages (egg, larva, pupa and adult
Temperature  For example what?
for instance, the lower lethal temperature for the southern pine beetle dendroctonus frontalis zimmermann has been estimated at -16 degc. therefore, lower winter temperatures are limiting the beetle's northern distribution (ungerer et al 1999). in the past, beetle presence in southern usa effectively matched the areas where the probability of reaching this lethal temperature was low
What are the new explosions?
however, since 2000, outbreaks have been observed at northern latitudes, where their probability was highly unlikely, first in new jersey and ohio (2001), and then in maryland (2005). tr n et al (2007) show that these new outbreaks are directly related to a latitudinal shift in winter isotherms. similarly, the unprecedented outbreak of mountain pine beetle dendroctonus ponderosae hopkins, currently affecting over 10.1 million hectares of lodgepole pine forests pinus contorta dougl.) in british columbia, canada, partly relies on the occurrence of warmer winters. warmer winters allow better beetle survival during overwintering (kurz et
under temperate latitudes, low temperature is usually a key factor constraining the range expansion through minimal thresholds required for the insect survival and development at the different stages (egg, larva, pupa and adult). for instance, the lower lethal temperature for the southern pine beetle dendroctonus frontalis zimmermann has been estimated at -16 degc. therefore, lower winter temperatures are limiting the beetle's northern distribution (ungerer et al 1999). in the past, beetle presence in southern usa effectively matched the areas where the probability of reaching this lethal temperature was low. however, since 2000, outbreaks have been observed at northern latitudes, where their probability was highly unlikely, first in new jersey and ohio (2001), and then in maryland (2005). tr n et al (2007) show that these new outbreaks are directly related to a latitudinal shift in winter isotherms. similarly, the unprecedented outbreak of mountain pine beetle dendroctonus ponderosae hopkins, currently affecting over 10.1 million hectares of lodgepole pine forests pinus contorta dougl.) in british columbia, canada, partly relies on the occurrence of warmer winters. warmer winters allow better beetle survival during overwintering (kurz et
What will be the result of a 2degC increase?
a 2degc rise will result in insecurity for millions of people in terms of food, water, or shelter, with the risk of many additional deaths
Will any country be safe from the effects of global climate change?
no countries will be immune from the health eff ects of climate change
climate change is a real threat to global health and wellbeing, and is contributing to mortality, especially for people living in poverty and lacking access to essential health care. a 2degc rise will result in insecurity for millions of people in terms of food, water, or shelter, with the risk of many additional deaths. no countries will be immune from the health eff ects of climate change. for example, the hurricane katrina in the usa and the deaths caused by the 2003 heatwave in europe show that rich countries cannot always protect themselves from the adverse health consequences of climate-related events. an integrated approach to attempting to reduce the adverse eff ects of climate change requires at least three levels of action. first, policies must be adopted to reduce carbon emissions, and thereby slow down global warming and eventually stabilise temperatures. second, action must be taken on the links connecting climate change and adverse health. third, appropriate public health systems should be put into place to deal with adverse outcomes. slowing down carbon emissions presents daunting challenges, requiring coordinated action on a global scale (panel 2). however, many adaptation strategies can be pursued by a combination of local, national, regional, and global strategies, and hence important steps can be taken requiring less demanding forms of cooperation and therefore with greater speed. this does not mean that adaptation will be easy or straightforward. common challenges exist that make, and will make, the process of
What has been proposed to increase the moisture supply to glacial initiation sites?
an active thermohaline circulation (thc) in the north atlantic ocean
the climate model  s response to orbital forcing supports, in part, the milankovitch hypothesis concerning the importance of reductions in summer insolation on minimizing ablation, and therefore the influence of orbital forcing on glaciation, as can be seen through the 50% variations in positive-degree-days, the proxy measure of potential ablation within the model. what is perhaps less obvious about this confirmation is the fact that potential ablation is not minimized precisely on the summer solstice. rather, potential ablation is minimized a few weeks earlier, which allows for greater involvement of sea ice and snow feedbacks to influence surface air temperatures. while this small distinction does not produce an appreciable difference in the timing of the minimum in summer insolation with the minimum in potential ablation, the radiative feedbacks are large, upwards of 10 w/m2at 115 ka, and indicate that a sizable portion of the modeled variations in potential ablation are an indirect response to orbital forcing. this finding could be important to some aspects of the debate of whether glacial initiation is limited by an inadequate supply of moisture or too much summer ablation. one mechanism that has been proposed to increase the moisture supply to sites of glacial initiation is an active thermohaline circulation (thc) in the north atlantic ocean, through its ability to maintain warmer sea surface temperatures, limit seaice growth, and allow for greater evaporation from the ocean surface (ruddiman and mcintyre 1981; miller and de vernal 1992). we show that it is possible for snowfall to increase within a cooler higher latitude climate through enhanced storm activity forced by a greater pole-to-equator temperature gradient. therefore
What is the role of scenario in adaptation research?
scenarios are the only tool available for projecting future conditions, and future conditions are a key factor influencing vulnerability
scenarios play an important role in impacts and adaptation research. as discussed in the previous section, scenarios are the only tool available for projecting future conditions, and future conditions are a key factor influencing vulnerability. in addition to changes in climate, changes in social, economic and political conditions will strongly influence the net impacts of climate change and our ability to adapt. it is important to recognize that climate and socioeconomic scenarios are strongly interrelated, in that future changes in global greenhouse gas emissions will reflect evolving social and economic conditions. this section provides a brief overview of the different types of scenarios available to the impacts and adaptation research community, while highlighting recent developments and future directions.
What is the range for the reduction in Lawrence Watershed?
lawrence watershed (usa and canada), a reduction ranging between 4% and 24% of the mean annual discharge is projected for the next 90 years as a consequence of current scenarios of climate change croley, 2003 
Which seasons are affected most by the changes in air temprature
winter and spring seasons are particularly vulnerable to changes in air temperature
What will happen if the temperature rises in the winter?
warmer temperature during the winter season can increase the number of days with air temperature above zero celsius resulting in more frequent rain events
the hydrological regime of northern rivers could be severely modified in response to the anticipated changes in temperature and precipitation during the present century. for the greatlakes-st. lawrence watershed (usa and canada), a reduction ranging between 4% and 24% of the mean annual discharge is projected for the next 90 years as a consequence of current scenarios of climate change croley, 2003 ). for this large watershed, increased evaporation from lakes due to a rise in temperature explains a large part of the projected reduction croley, 2003 ). shifts in the timing and amount of input runoff are also expected to occur mortsch and quinn, 1996 ). downstream of lake ontario, seasonal changes in the discharge of the st. lawrence river may be accentuated or attenuated by the water regulation plan in order to modulate the temporal variation in the great lakes levels. winter and spring seasons are particularly vulnerable to changes in air temperature. warmer temperature during the winter season can increase the number of days with air temperature above zero celsius resulting in more frequent rain events. these events will contribute to an increase of winter runoff and not to
What is the Atlantic warm pool (AWP)?
the atlantic warm pool (awp), as part of the western hemisphere warm pool (whwp; wang and enfield 2001, 2003), is a large body of warm water comprising the gulf of mexico, the caribbean sea, and the western tropical north atlantic
Does the AWP have a large seasonal cycle?
the awp has a large seasonal cycle, and the fluctuations of its area show a large anomalous variation, with large warm pools being almost three times larger than small ones (wang et al. 2006
What do studies carried out by Wang et al. (2006) show?
using various datasets, wang et al. (2006) show observational evidence of the anomalous awp's influences on western hemisphere summer rainfall and atlantic hurricane activity summer here always refers to the boreal summer). in particular, they find a negative correlation between the anomalous awp area index and rainfall anomalies in the central united states and a positive correlation between the awp index and atlantic hurricanes
the atlantic warm pool (awp), as part of the western hemisphere warm pool (whwp; wang and enfield 2001, 2003), is a large body of warm water comprising the gulf of mexico, the caribbean sea, and the western tropical north atlantic. the awp has a large seasonal cycle, and the fluctuations of its area show a large anomalous variation, with large warm pools being almost three times larger than small ones (wang et al. 2006). using various datasets, wang et al. (2006) show observational evidence of the anomalous awp's influences on western hemisphere summer rainfall and atlantic hurricane activity summer here always refers to the boreal summer). in particular, they find a negative correlation between the anomalous awp area index and rainfall anomalies in the central united states and a positive correlation between the awp index and atlantic hurricanes. then, wang and lee (2007) and
What is the hallmark of this review?
to identify, assemble and analyse as much as possible of the existing literature from around the world that relates to flooding health risks and responses
The team invested how much project time in undertaking formal literature searches?
at least one third
The strategy developed for the bibliographic databases was described as?
formal
the hallmark of this review has been an attempt to identify, assemble and analyse as much as possible of the existing literature from around the world that relates to flooding health risks and responses. that search has by no means been confined to conventional academic sources - on the response side in particular, the documents surveyed include a variety of 'grey' literature. categories of literature drawn on in this review include: academic studies and peer-reviewed literature; studies and reports by governmental, non-governmental and international organisations; newsletters and website texts. in order to identify documents, the team invested at least one third of project time in undertaking formal literature searches, checking publication/document lists of organisations and consulting with key individuals. sources for the references surveyed include: 1. bibliographic databases 2. websites 3. contact with lead agencies 3. contact with experts in the field 4. hand search of relevant journals and conference proceedings 5. search of the reference lists of relevant reviews, books and articles 7. contact with the authors of relevant papers 8. use of the citation analysis facility of the web of science, science citation index (sci) and social science citation index (ssci) a formal search strategy was developed for the bibliographic databases, with a standardised set of search terms. results of the database searches were collated in endnote, duplicates were removed, and then titles and s were scrutinized for relevance. at the end of this filtering process a list of articles was identified for acquisition through libraries, electronic sources and direct contact with authors. in total, the project team surveyed over 450 academic and non-academic documents relating both to flooding and health. not all provided material of sufficient importance to be cited in this review, but a full database of references will be collated and made available in the final stages of this project. we have attempted to be as comprehensive in our document search and acquisition as was feasible with the resources at our disposal. the result has been a major undertaking, and one that we are confident has captured most of the issues concerned
What does depth variation of phytolith abundances from a core taken from the gully floor (hollow) show?
depth variation of phytolith abundances from a core taken from the gully floor (hollow) show a similar but expanded pattern to that of l1 on the interfluve
What does the expansion of the record from 1.6 m depth to 7 m give and how?
the expansion of the record from 1.6 m depth to 7 m gives much higher resolution by reducing the effects of mixing of phytolith zones and blurring of boundaries by bioturbation
What does Kawakawa Tephra appear as at 2.6 m depth?
kawakawa tephra appears as a glass peak at 2.6 m depth
depth variation of phytolith abundances from a core taken from the gully floor (hollow) show a similar but expanded pattern to that of l1 on the interfluve. this suggests the gully fill represents loess transported from the slopes since the beginning of accumulation of l1 to the present day. the expansion of the record from 1.6 m depth to 7 m gives much higher resolution by reducing the effects of mixing of phytolith zones and blurring of boundaries by bioturbation. age control for the section is again problematic. kawakawa tephra appears as a glass peak at 2.6 m depth. an osl age immediately above underestimates the tephra age by as much as 13 ka and an age 2 m below under-estimates the tephra age by ca 6 ka. we consider an osl age of 28 ka at 5.6 m also to be an under-estimate. the osl age of 8.75 ka
In response to what is interest in integrating crop simulation models with dynamic seasonal climate forecast models expanding?
interest in integrating crop simulation models with dynamic seasonal climate forecast models is expanding in response to a perceived opportunity to add value to seasonal climate forecasts for agriculture
What are some of the obstacles that integrated modelling may help to address?
integrated modelling may help to address some obstacles to effective agricultural use of climate information. first, modelling can address the mismatch between farmers' needs and available operational forecasts. probabilistic crop yield forecasts are directly relevant to farmers' livelihood decisions and, at a different scale, to early warning and market applications. second, credible ex ante evidence of livelihood benefits, using integrated climate-crop-economic modelling in a valueofinformation framework, may assist in the challenge of obtaining institutional, financial and political support; and inform targeting for greatest benefit. third, integrated modelling can reduce the risk and learning time associated with adaptation and adoption, and related uncertainty on the part of advisors and advocates
What can be the most concrete step that agricultural enterprise can take to build resilience to long-term changes in the global climate system?
furthermore, developing flexible, proactive strategies for managing year-to-year climate variations within farming communities and the institutions that interface with them, using advance climate information, is arguably the most concrete step that the agricultural enterprise can take to build resilience to long-term changes in the global climate system
international research institute for climate prediction, the earth institute at columbia university, 121 monell building, lamont-doherty earth observatory, po box 1000/61 route 9w, palisades, ny 10964-8000, usa interest in integrating crop simulation models with dynamic seasonal climate forecast models is expanding in response to a perceived opportunity to add value to seasonal climate forecasts for agriculture. integrated modelling may help to address some obstacles to effective agricultural use of climate information. first, modelling can address the mismatch between farmers' needs and available operational forecasts. probabilistic crop yield forecasts are directly relevant to farmers' livelihood decisions and, at a different scale, to early warning and market applications. second, credible ex ante evidence of livelihood benefits, using integrated climate-crop-economic modelling in a valueofinformation framework, may assist in the challenge of obtaining institutional, financial and political support; and inform targeting for greatest benefit. third, integrated modelling can reduce the risk and learning time associated with adaptation and adoption, and related uncertainty on the part of advisors and advocates. it can provide insights to advisors, and enhance site-specific interpretation of recommendations when driven by spatial data. model-based 'discussion support systems' contribute to learning and farmer-researcher dialogue. integrated climate-crop modelling may play a genuine, but limited role in efforts to support climate risk management in agriculture, but only if they are used appropriately, with understanding of their capabilities and limitations, and with cautious evaluation of model predictions and of the insights that arises from model-based decision analysis. keywords: seasonal climate prediction; crop model; impact assessment; yield forecasting 1. there is a strong history of integrated climate-crop models to estimate the impacts of climate change scenarios, and adaptive breeding and land use strategies. advances in climate prediction at a seasonal lead-time have stimulated substantial interest in forecasting crop yields as a means of improving farm management and policy-level interventions in a manner that reduces risk and enhances livelihoods and food security, particularly in the marginal, rainfed, tropical cropping regions that the green revolution largely bypassed. farmers experience climate change not as a shifting mean but as climatic variations. climatic variability at all of its time-scales is, therefore, a current challenge to development. furthermore, developing flexible, proactive strategies for managing year-to-year climate variations within farming communities and the institutions that interface with them, using advance climate information, is arguably the most concrete step that the agricultural enterprise can take to build resilience to long-term changes in the global climate system. these two realizations appear to be bringing the historically distinct global change adaptation and agricultural development agendas closer together, particularly in africa. several research groups are seeking to advance methodology to integrate crop simulation models with dynamic climate forecast models for application at a range of spatial scales. a range of promising approaches has emerged hansen et al submitted b that may have relevance to management of climate variability and application to climate change projections. in this paper, i seek to put such work in context by discussing how integrated climate-crop models operating at a seasonal lead-time might contribute to efforts to address climaterelated constraints to agricultural development, with some emphasis on rainfed agriculture in africa. section 2 summarizes the role of climatic risk and potential role of seasonal climate prediction in agriculture. section 3 relates integrated climate-crop modelling to constraints that have been identified to effective use of seasonal forecasts within agriculture. the three subsequent sections propose three areas in which integrated modelling might contribute to more effective use of seasonal climate forecasts for the benefit of smallholder agriculture in the developing countries. 2. climate risk and agricultural development climate exerts a profound influence on the lives of poor rural populations who depend on agriculture for
What does the monthly incidence rate of dengue cases (histograms) reported in Noumea reflects?
the monthly incidence rate of dengue cases (histograms) reported in noumea from march 2000 to december 2009 was not significantly correlated (time-lag being equal to 0, 1, 2, or 3 months) with the value of hi (orange line) reflecting the abundance of larval resting places, and api (green line) reflecting the vector density
What was indentified in the entomological surveillance indices?
although highest dengue incidence rates and highest values of entomological surveillance indices were observed during the same period of the year (from january to july), no relevant entomological patterns were identified during dengue outbreaks
What is the difference between high indices and low indices?
sometimes, higher indices were measured during non epidemic than during epidemic years, and lowest indices were observed in 2009 whereas a major dengue outbreak occurred suggesting that the minimal vector density allowing the occurrence of dengue outbreaks may be very low. (tif
evolution of house index, adult productivity index and dengue cases reported in noumea (2000-2009). the monthly incidence rate of dengue cases (histograms) reported in noumea from march 2000 to december 2009 was not significantly correlated (time-lag being equal to 0, 1, 2, or 3 months) with the value of hi (orange line) reflecting the abundance of larval resting places, and api (green line) reflecting the vector density. although highest dengue incidence rates and highest values of entomological surveillance indices were observed during the same period of the year (from january to july), no relevant entomological patterns were identified during dengue outbreaks. a decreasing trend of entomological indices was observed that may reflect the impact of strengthened vector control policies. sometimes, higher indices were measured during non epidemic than during epidemic years, and lowest indices were observed in 2009 whereas a major dengue outbreak occurred suggesting that the minimal vector density allowing the occurrence of dengue outbreaks may be very low. (tif)
The sedimentation capacity can be determined from a specific test called?
settleability can be determined from a specific test described by catunda and van haandel (1989). this test is tedious and complicated, and the 782 anaerobic reactors application of a simpler, although less accurate method - the determination of the sludge volume index (svi) or the diluted sludge volume index (dsvi) - is preferable in the operational routine
Do the figure and table below (anaerobic reactor) identify?
the figure and table below (anaerobic reactor) identify the main points, parameters and frequency of monitoring recommended for an anaerobic reactor. however, it should be highlighted that the monitoring parameters and frequency can be changed in view of local specificities and demands imposed by the environmental control agencies
Why is this monitoring essential to define the best sludge disposal and dewatering routine?
this monitoring is essential to define the best sludge wastage and dewatering routine, to contribute to reduced drying cycles and to the attainment of a dry sludge with low water content. the purpose of the sludge dewatering is to reduce the percentage of water in the sludge as much as possible and, at the same time, improve its hygienic quality, maintaining, as much as possible, the organic matter and the nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus) in the most suitable form to turn the sludge into an organic fertiliser. regarding the operation of the drying beds, the most important parameters are
settleability can be determined from a specific test described by catunda and van haandel (1989). this test is tedious and complicated, and the 782 anaerobic reactors application of a simpler, although less accurate method - the determination of the sludge volume index (svi) or the diluted sludge volume index (dsvi) - is preferable in the operational routine. the figure and table below (anaerobic reactor) identify the main points, parameters and frequency of monitoring recommended for an anaerobic reactor. however, it should be highlighted that the monitoring parameters and frequency can be changed in view of local specificities and demands imposed by the environmental control agencies. a more intensive monitoring frequency may be necessary, particularly during the start-up of the system, as focused in the final items of this chapter. (c) monitoring of the drying beds as mentioned previously, optimised operational conditions of the sludge dewatering unit have direct implications on the reduction of the volume of dry sludge to be transported to the final disposal location and also on the quality of the effluent leaving the anaerobic reactor. thus, to reduce the drying cycles of the excess sludge, a continuous monitoring of the solids should be performed inside the reactor (prior to wastage) and on the drying beds (after the wastage). this monitoring is essential to define the best sludge wastage and dewatering routine, to contribute to reduced drying cycles and to the attainment of a dry sludge with low water content. the purpose of the sludge dewatering is to reduce the percentage of water in the sludge as much as possible and, at the same time, improve its hygienic quality, maintaining, as much as possible, the organic matter and the nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus) in the most suitable form to turn the sludge into an organic fertiliser. regarding the operation of the drying beds, the most important parameters are:
What do land cover and land use changes include?
land cover and land use changes include residential and commercial development, deforestation, reforestation, and wildfires
What causes changes in the withdrawal and consumption of water?
withdrawal and consumption of water change as a result of changing economic activity (for example, industry and irrigation), changes in population, and changes in values
What may also be affected by land cover and land use changes?
these changes may also affect hydrologic stationarity and the uncertainty in flow-frequency estimates
many dynamic processes have and will continue to impact water resources management in addition to climate change (climate change science program, 2008a). important changes in land cover and land use, water consumption, and water resources infrastructure will also affect water resources management. land cover and land use changes over time can result in changes to basin runoff patterns and sedimentation rates, which could change flood peaks, impact geomorphology, and alter reservoir storage for water supply, flood storage, and other uses. land cover and land use changes include residential and commercial development, deforestation, reforestation, and wildfires. these changes may also affect hydrologic stationarity and the uncertainty in flow-frequency estimates. withdrawal and consumption of water change as a result of changing economic activity (for example, industry and irrigation), changes in population, and changes in values. these changes can have a tremendous impact on water availability (lettenmaier and others, 1999; vorosmarty and others, 2000) and can result in altered base flow to streams, changing temperature and chemistry of streamflow, saline water intrusion in some coastal and inland settings, changes in groundwater levels, and land subsidence in certain hydrogeologic settings. ground water is being depleted in many areas, with consequences for present and future ground-water availability and surface-water supplies. fast population growth in the arid and semiarid regions of the united states is already stressing limited water supplies. water resources infrastructure such as dams, levees, and locks, must be maintained to provide safe and functional operations. deferred maintenance accelerates deterioration (american society of civil engineers, 200\\x04), and natural processes, such as subsidence, sedimentation, changes in sea level, and seismic events, can also reduce infrastructure performance over time. these processes often occur concurrently and may have interactions. climate change adds further complexity. in some cases, the combination of these many influences on water resources may exacerbate existing problems. in other cases, it is possible that the interactions between different processes will diminish impacts to water resources systems. for example, the aging and poorly maintained levee infrastructure, combined with the growth of residential, commercial, and industrial development in flood plains (with or without levees), has substantially increased flood risk on a national level. in some locations, climate impacts will exacerbate this problem due to increased precipitation intensity, higher peak runoff, or changes to the form of precipitation that increase runoff. however, in other locations, climate impacts may reduce this problem through decreases in precipitation. water managers have long recognized that these dynamic processes affect water resources. however, political and social institutions often implicitly assume that conditions are static or stationary. the engineering and economic approaches that underlie virtually all water planning in the united states assume that the underlying climate and hydrologic processes are stationary, even if their statistics are not perfectly known. effective management of our existing water resources infrastructure depends on adaptation to current realities--realities of the physical infrastructure, the competing demands for water, public values, and climate. none of these are static and table 1 lists some potential changes to be included in water resources management decisions.
What are some consequences of erroneous boundary forcing?
in addition to reductions in skill because of erroneous boundary forcing, forecast quality may be adversely affected by changes in characteristics of the model climatology under different approaches to prescribing ssts
How should one compare and interpret the model's ensemble distribution for a particular season and year?
the model's ensemble distribution for a particular season and year acquires meaning only relative to the climatological response of the ensemble members over many previous years for that same season. thus the ensemble distribution for a particular season should be interpreted relative to historical runs that were subject to a similar boundary forcing strategy
What is the meaning of the signal and noise in the model response?
in terms of the ensemble distribution, the signal represents the mean shift of the distribution, while the noise represents the spread of possible outcomes about that mean response
in addition to reductions in skill because of erroneous boundary forcing, forecast quality may be adversely affected by changes in characteristics of the model climatology under different approaches to prescribing ssts. relative to simulations forced with the actual simultaneous observed sst anomalies, the climate predictions may contain systematic biases in the model's local signal and noise characteristics. prediction biases in the seasonal response of the model can impact profoundly the interpretation of the predicted anomalies. the model's ensemble distribution for a particular season and year acquires meaning only relative to the climatological response of the ensemble members over many previous years for that same season. thus the ensemble distribution for a particular season should be interpreted relative to historical runs that were subject to a similar boundary forcing strategy. examples given below illustrate how differences in the model's response could be misinterpreted if a prediction forced with persisted sst anomalies were judged relative to the response characteristics of the simulation runs. signal and noise are two characteristics typically used to describe model response. in terms of the ensemble distribution, the signal represents the mean shift of the distribution, while the noise represents the spread of possible outcomes about that mean response. for an agcm the model signal can be estimated by the ensemblemean variance, which represents the model's repeatable response to a given sst boundary condition (i.e. that in a particular season and year), averaged over many years (anderson and stern, 1996; zwiers, 1996; rowell, 1998). the signal, or externally forced variance, is defined here as:
What links do we see here?
the link between long-term climate change or short-term variability and fire activity is complex with multiple feedbacks expected (and potentially unknown
What may high precipitation or high CO2 loadings result in?
periods of high precipitation or high co2 loadings may result in increased biomass growth so that enhanced fuel loads are available in future fire seasons
What may reduced water supply associated with drought result in?
reduced water availability associated with drought may result in drier biomass that is more readily burned in possibly more intense fires
the link between long-term climate change or short-term variability and fire activity is complex with multiple feedbacks expected (and potentially unknown). fires require fuel to burn and the type, quantity, and quality of fuel is influenced by climate. periods of high precipitation or high co2 loadings may result in increased biomass growth so that enhanced fuel loads are available in future fire seasons. reduced water availability associated with drought may result in drier biomass that is more readily burned in possibly more intense fires. higher temperatures and other extreme weather may lengthen fire seasons and result in increased likelihood of fires ignitions and longer burning periods. vegetation types are also altered in a changing climate. in turn, fires influence climate by the emissions to the atmosphere of aerosols and ghg, and by affecting the ability of biomass to sequester carbon.
Describe PC scores?
considering the pc1 scores of the chronology network as a regional chronology for the studied area, climate-tree growth relationships were established between the pc1 and the spanish climatic series (fig. 7
List regional timelines?
the regional chronology showed significant responses to the climate conditions of the current summer, as well as to the late summer before the growth year. tree growth showed significant p o 0.05) response function coefficients to previous september (negative) and previous november (positive) temperatures. on the other hand, radial growth was positively correlated with july precipitation of current growth year
Describe radial growth?
correlation coefficients were also significantly negative and positive for prior august temperature and current june precipitation, respectively. correlation and response functions performed with the pc1 of each species showed that the three species shared the observed general pattern (fig. 7), despite the own particular features of each one (results not shown). p. sylvestris and p. uncinata responded negatively to september and positively to november temperature. although p. nigra also had the same significant correlation values with those
considering the pc1 scores of the chronology network as a regional chronology for the studied area, climate-tree growth relationships were established between the pc1 and the spanish climatic series (fig. 7). the regional chronology showed significant responses to the climate conditions of the current summer, as well as to the late summer before the growth year. tree growth showed significant p o 0.05) response function coefficients to previous september (negative) and previous november (positive) temperatures. on the other hand, radial growth was positively correlated with july precipitation of current growth year. correlation coefficients were also significantly negative and positive for prior august temperature and current june precipitation, respectively. correlation and response functions performed with the pc1 of each species showed that the three species shared the observed general pattern (fig. 7), despite the own particular features of each one (results not shown). p. sylvestris and p. uncinata responded negatively to september and positively to november temperature. although p. nigra also had the same significant correlation values with those
What is the use of climate system models?
models of the climate system will always use descretised (and thus approximate) versions of the equations of motion and will probably rely on some empirical parametrisation schemes for the unresolved scales
Write about accurate analysis of the atmosphere?
the small deformation radius in comparison with the atmosphere and the problems involved in observing the ocean below the surface, mean that we may never obtain ocean analyses with similar levels of accuracy to those currently available for the atmosphere
What are the weather forecasts?
examining ensemble experiments which show potential predictability and identifying the key oceanic regions and variables, it would be possible to target observations for climate forecasting
it is important to re-iterate that the predictability limits derived in this study are those assuming a perfect model and near perfect knowledge of the initial conditions. in practice, models of the climate system will always use descretised (and thus approximate) versions of the equations of motion and will probably rely on some empirical parametrisation schemes for the unresolved scales. thus models will never be perfect. perhaps a more important uncertainty though is in any initial state that we require. the small deformation radius in comparison with the atmosphere and the problems involved in observing the ocean below the surface, mean that we may never obtain ocean analyses with similar levels of accuracy to those currently available for the atmosphere. the ensemble method used in this study could provide some clues as to the most appropriate regions of the ocean to observe in order to provide ocean analyses which are accurate enough only in the regions which can then lead to the most skillful, or most valuable, climate predictions. by examining ensemble experiments which show potential predictability and identifying the key oceanic regions and variables, it would be possible to target observations for climate forecasting.
What was the European summer of 2012 marked by?
the summer of 2012 was marked by strongly contrasting precipitation anomalies across europe
What was the JJA 2012 anomalies in European precipitation related with?
the jja 2012 anomalies in european precipitation were related to a large-scale dipole pattern in sea level pressure (slp) over the north atlantic
What does SLP stand for?
sea level pressure (slp
the summer of 2012 was marked by strongly contrasting precipitation anomalies across europe. for example, the united kingdom experienced its wettest summer (jja) since 1912, which lead to widespread flooding. spain, in contrast, suffered drought and wildfires associated with the second lowest summer rainfall in the last 60 years (see "the record winter drought of 2011-12 in the iberian peninsula" in this report). these extremes were associated with a clear dipole in precipitation anomalies, indicating a northward concentration of european precipitation (fig 10.1b). here we show that the precipitation anomalies can be understood as consequences of anomalies in the large-scale atmospheric circulation. we also present preliminary investigations into the potential role of anomalous ssts in forcing the atmospheric circulation. large-scale circulation. the jja 2012 anomalies in european precipitation were related to a large-scale dipole pattern in sea level pressure (slp) over the north atlantic (fig 10.1a), with low-pressure anomalies stretching from the atlantic across the british isles and scandinavia (tracking the region of high
Where is there growing appreciation?
there is growing appreciation that the composition, abundance, and trophic efficiency of plankton communities are tightly linked to water temperature, beyond their direct physiological responses
What is probably the most important physical variable for marine ecosystems?
temperature is probably the single most important physical variable structuring marine ecosystems
How are plankton communities regulated?
the size structure and taxonomic composition of plankton communities are regulated by their physical and chemical environment (bouman et al ., 2003; badosa et al ., 2007; mckinnon et al ., 2007
temperature is probably the single most important physical variable structuring marine ecosystems. there is growing appreciation that the composition, abundance, and trophic efficiency of plankton communities are tightly linked to water temperature, beyond their direct physiological responses. it is this critical influence of temperature that makes marine systems acutely vulnerable to global warming. the size structure and taxonomic composition of plankton communities are regulated by their physical and chemical environment (bouman et al ., 2003; badosa et al ., 2007; mckinnon et al ., 2007). the plankton community can be envisaged as existing somewhere within a continuum of states between two extremes, with nutrient enrichment the key determinant. under cold, wellmixed, and turbulent conditions, surface waters are replete with nutrients, the phytoplankton community is dominated by centric diatoms, and the ratio of new production to total community production is high. these conditions result in the zooplankton being dominated by crustaceans, such as large copepods. this short, efficient foodweb is nutritionally rich, supporting large numbers of planktivorous and piscivorous fish, seabirds, and marine mammals. in contrast, under warm, stratified, and stable conditions, surface waters are depleted in nutrients, the phytoplankton community is dominated by picoplankton and flagellates, and trophodynamics depend on recycled nitrogen. these conditions often result in the zooplankton being dominated by gelatinous zooplankton (salps, doliolids, ctenophores) and small crustaceans. this long, inefficient foodweb is of poor nutritional quality, supporting a far smaller biomass of higher trophic levels. the degree of nutrient enrichment is thus the key determinant of the type of foodweb present. surface temperature is a good proxy for nutrient enrichment in the ocean. warming of surface waters makes the water column more stable, enhancing stratification and requiring more energy to mix deep, nutrient-rich water into surface layers. this results in nitrate, the principal nutrient that limits phytoplankton growth in the ocean, being negatively related to temperature globally (kamykowski and zentara, 1986). further, nutrient limitation is greatest when warmer-than-normal conditions prevail in a region (kamykowski and zentara, 2005). temperature is therefore a powerful proxy for describing the structure and functioning of marine systems. this is fundamentally different from terrestrial systems, where there is no such direct link between temperature, nutrient availability, and ecosystem attributes; instead, rainfall is much more important.
What elements does the article describe?
this paper is limited to describing some elements of the science on climate change and its relation to climate variability extreme events
According to the article, do climate changes influence the risk of natural accidents?
it is important to highlight, though, that climate change is only one factor influencing the risk of natural hazards
Why do organizations working on disaster risk reduction need to establish links with institutes?
this means that organisations working on disaster risk reduction need to establish linkages with institutes that can provide them with that information, such as national meteorological offices or international centres of expertise
this paper is limited to describing some elements of the science on climate change and its relation to climate variability extreme events. it barely touches on the other element of the risk equation: the vulnerability of the systems being affected by climate-related hazards. other papers in this special issue discuss this topic in-depth. it is important to highlight, though, that climate change is only one factor influencing the risk of natural hazards. response strategies, therefore, should consider all the options in order to mitigate such risks. in the case of climate change, this includes addressing the root cause of the increasing risk: the emission of greenhouse gases. however, it also includes, prominently, the reduction of vulnerability to current and changing climate variability and weather extremes, based primarily on current experience in disaster risk reduction. beyond this expanded mandate, the implication of climate change for disaster risk reduction is simply to take account of the scientific information on climate trends, particularly regarding extremes. this means that organisations working on disaster risk reduction need to establish linkages with institutes that can provide them with that information, such as national meteorological offices or international centres of expertise. these scientific institutes should also reach out to the disaster risk reduction
WHICH LOCATIONS IS BEING MORE APPLICABLE
with a low population density
LIKE WHAT
like rural areas (even though they are also applied in various densely occupied locations, but frequently presenting problems of infiltration in the soil and the resulting contamination of the water table
WHO IS ORIGINATE BY THE TRHEE MAIN SOURCES
wwtp
similarly, the book concentrates on off-site collection systems (with a waterborne sewerage collection and transportation network) and does not cover the on-site systems (e.g. latrines and septic tanks). these are of great importance and in many cases the best alternative in various regions, being more applicable in locations with a low population density, like rural areas (even though they are also applied in various densely occupied locations, but frequently presenting problems of infiltration in the soil and the resulting contamination of the water table). urban wastewater that flows in an off-site sewerage system and contributes to a wwtp is originated from the following three main sources:
How can constraints in time domain be approximated
o approximate the 'minimum norm' constraint, one pads the series with the long-term mean beyond the boundaries (up to at least one filter width) prior to smoothing. to approximate the 'minimum slope' constraint, one pads the series with the values within one filter width of the boundary reflected about the time boundary
Minimum roughness can be approximated in what way?
one pads the series with the values within one filter width of the boundary reflected about the time boundary, and reflected vertically (i.e., about the ''y'' axis) relative to the final value
while constraints (1)-(3) can be applied explicitly in the frequency domain [e.g., park 1992; ghil et al. 2002], it is possible to implement reasonable approximations to these constraints in a simple manner in the time domain as follows: to approximate the 'minimum norm' constraint, one pads the series with the long-term mean beyond the boundaries (up to at least one filter width) prior to smoothing. to approximate the 'minimum slope' constraint, one pads the series with the values within one filter width of the boundary reflected about the time boundary. this leads the smooth towards zero slope as it approaches the boundary. finally, to approximate the 'minimum roughness' constraint, one pads the series with the values within one filter width of the boundary reflected about the time boundary, and reflected vertically (i.e., about the ''y'' axis) relative to the final value. this tends to impose a point of inflection at the boundary, and leads the smooth towards the boundary with constant slope. alternative approximate implementations of constraints (1)-(3) are of course possible. we first make use of a routine that we have written in the 'matlab' programming language which implements constraints (1)-(3), as described above, making use of a 10 point ''butterworth'' low-pass filter for smoothing; other
Can you summarize the review ?
in the current review we wish to draw attention to an additional aspect of invasive species and climate change, that of agricultural productivity and food security
What are the overall goals ?
our overall goals are to begin a synthesis of potential impacts on productivity, to identify seminal research areas that can be addressed in
Is this a definitive review ?
we recognize that at present, such a review remains, in part, speculative, and more illustrative than definitive
in the current review we wish to draw attention to an additional aspect of invasive species and climate change, that of agricultural productivity and food security. we recognize that at present, such a review remains, in part, speculative, and more illustrative than definitive. however, recent events on the global stage, particularly in regard to the number of food riots that occurred during 2008, even at a time of record harvests, have prompted additional interest in those factors, including invasive species, which could, through climatic uncertainty, alter food production. to that end, as agricultural scientists, we wish to begin an initial evaluation of key questions related to food production and climate change including: how vulnerable is agriculture to invasive species?; are current pest management strategies sufficient to control invasive outbreaks in the future?; what are the knowledge gaps?; can we provide initial recommendations for scientists, land managers and policy makers in regard to available resources? our overall goals are to begin a synthesis of potential impacts on productivity, to identify seminal research areas that can be addressed in
Does the Climate Change Resource Center intend to provide periodic updates to the information provided?
provide timely and current information on a rapidly changing subject, using periodic updates to fulfill the information needs of returning users
How does the Climate Change Resource Center plan to determine if it is meeting the needs of users?
seek diverse feedback and evaluation to determine if it is meeting the needs of users
What kind of information and tools does the Climate Change Resource Center intend to provide to land managers?
provide land managers with an online portal to easily access credible, science-based, and relevant information and tools concerning climate change and ecosystem management options
the following operating principles for the climate change resource center guide its mission to provide land managers with an online portal to easily access credible, science-based, and relevant information and tools concerning climate change and ecosystem management options. * provide access to scientifically credible, peer-reviewed resources and to primary literature within its focus area of climate change and ecosystem response, ecosystem adaptation, and mitigation. * select and highlight climate change resources that are relevant to land managers and practitioners, are tied to articulated needs, and based on simple, user-oriented taxonomies. * solicit the development of original materials within its focus area. * present materials in compelling and varied ways, using multimedia and featuring case studies that demonstrate management actions. it offers an interface that allows users to easily navigate the site and to find desired information via multiple channels and at multiple levels of specificity. * provide timely and current information on a rapidly changing subject, using periodic updates to fulfill the information needs of returning users. * openly disclose limitations and assumptions of the resources it provides. * seek diverse feedback and evaluation to determine if it is meeting the needs of users. * work with other web sites and organizations to share information flu idly and to complement the resources they provide. * focus on what can be done to cope with climate change.
Were there differences found in fine root biomass within rows between the two systems?
nevertheless, no differences in fine root biomass were found within rows between the two systems
Percentage-wise, how much more biomass was present in the top 60cm in the inter-row in MC compared to AFS?
on the other hand, only 50% of the fine root biomass was present in the top 60 cm in the inter-row in mc in comparison to 70% in afs, which demonstrated not only a difference in biomass but also in term of distribution
What did the 1.5m trenches reveal in both systems?
trenches down to a depth of 1.5 m revealed the presence of fine roots of both species at this depth in both systems
mc (4.1 mg dm ha1) than in afs (4.7 mg dm ha1; table 3 ). nevertheless, no differences in fine root biomass were found within rows between the two systems. in both systems, the root distribution within rows was relatively homogenous in the first 60 cm of soil where 75% of the total fine root biomass of the top 100 cm was concentrated. on the other hand, only 50% of the fine root biomass was present in the top 60 cm in the inter-row in mc in comparison to 70% in afs, which demonstrated not only a difference in biomass but also in term of distribution. trenches down to a depth of 1.5 m revealed the presence of fine roots of both species at this depth in both systems.
What basis should emissions measured on?
emissions should be measured on a consumption not production basis
What is the relationship of climate-change and GDP?
gdp provides little guidance to the climate-change problem
What is implied if past contributions were to be added to the responsibility calculation?
a significant reduction in consumption levels in developed countries is implied
consideration of these conceptual measurement problems suggests some radical conclusions. emissions should be measured on a consumption not production basis. on a consumption basis, current emission-reduction targets for industrialized countries are comparatively trivial in comparison to the gravity of the problem, a shortfall which kyoto underwrites. it is, therefore, unsurprising that kyoto has made no significant difference to climate change. gdp provides little guidance to the climate-change problem, and the claim that climate change can be addressed without significant impacts (the widely quoted 1 per cent gdp number to which we return below) relies on an assumption that the accumulation of man-made capital, human capital, and technical progress is fast enough to offset the depletion of natural capital, of which the climate is a part. there is no good reason to accept this assumption, certainly over the time period scientists advise in which the increase in carbon emissions needs to be halted and then reversed. and the starting point is a level of gdp which does not account for the responsibility in respect of current carbon consumption. if past contributions were to be added to the responsibility calculation, a significant reduction in consumption levels in developed countries is implied.
When was the headquarters of the research institute completed?
completed in 1992, the modern headquarters of this research institute is a well-publicized modern bioclimatic building
What is the total floor area of the building?
covering over 6900 m 2 and housing a range of functions including offices, a library, a conference hall, a caf e a museum and laboratories, the building is rectangular on a northeast to southwest axis
What can be found on the individual floors of the building?
the basement level has a store and conference hall, and the first, second and third floors consist of offices and laboratories opening off a central hall open in the centre for three floors, above which is the museum on the roof
completed in 1992, the modern headquarters of this research institute is a well-publicized modern bioclimatic building. covering over 6900 m 2 and housing a range of functions including offices, a library, a conference hall, a caf e a museum and laboratories, the building is rectangular on a northeast to southwest axis. the basement level has a store and conference hall, and the first, second and third floors consist of offices and laboratories opening off a central hall open in the centre for three floors, above which is the museum on the roof. the flanking offices block off light from the central circulation zone and we found that all laboratories and offices typically had their doors shut. the windows of the building are ' smart ' being reversible
What is the order to solve post-threshold problem and pre-threshold problem?
we first solve the post-threshold problem and then use its solution in the pre-threshold problem
What does the first tipping point increase?
the first tipping point increases the climate feedbacks that amplify global warming
What is an example of a tipping point that could abruptly change the strength of feedbacks that determine surface temperature?
as one example, warming could mobilize large methane stores locked in permafrost and in ice lattices (clathrates) in the shallow ocean (hall and behl, 2006; archer, 2007; schaefer et al., 2011
dice. we have one dynamic programming problem for the post-threshold world and another for the pre-threshold world. the pre-threshold world has standard dice dynamics along with the tipping possibility and weather shocks calibrated to the historical record. a tipping point produces the post-threshold world by irreversibly changing the standard dynamics. we first solve the post-threshold problem and then use its solution in the pre-threshold problem. we numerically solve each dynamic programming problem for the unknown value function using function iteration. employing a projection method, we approximate the value functions by chebychev polynomials and use collocation at the chebychev nodes in the four-dimensional state space (miranda and fackler, 2002). we evaluate two tipping points of prominent concern in the climate science literature.9in every model run, the policymaker faces a single tipping point and knows in advance what its effects would be. the first tipping point increases the climate feedbacks that amplify global warming (arrow a in figure 1), and the second increases the atmospheric lifetime of co2 (arrow b in figure 1). the first tipping point therefore increases the effect of emissions on temperature, and the second increases the time during which emissions affect the climate. the climate science literature has compiled a number of pathways by which tipping points could abruptly change the strength of feedbacks that determine surface temperature. as one example, warming could mobilize large methane stores locked in permafrost and in ice lattices (clathrates) in the shallow ocean (hall and behl, 2006; archer, 2007; schaefer et al., 2011). if warming mobilizes these methane stocks, they would cause further warming that could mobilize additional stocks. as another example, if land ice sheets begin to retreat on decadal timescales, the resulting loss of reflective ice could double the long-term warming predicted by models that hold land ice sheets fixed (hansen et al., 2008). temperature dynamics in dice depend on a parameter known as climate sensitivity, which is
What are the advantage of applying a self-consistent surface energy balance approach?
one of the advantages of applying a self-consistent surface energy balance approach is the ability to assess the relative importance of sublimation and melt in the ablation process
What does these shapes highlights?
these shapes highlight the regions dominated by sublimation and those that are dominated by melt. in particular, the eastern zone is entirely dominated by melt at the ela
one of the advantages of applying a self-consistent surface energy balance approach is the ability to assess the relative importance of sublimation and melt in the ablation process. the fractional contribution of melt to the total ablation at the ela calculated from the ncep-ncar climatology is shown in fig. 5. there are places where ablation occurs almost entirely by melt and others by sublimation. in particular, a qualitative comparison of the pattern in the fractional contribution of melt (fig. 5) to the spatial pattern in annual average precipitation (fig. 10a) indicates that, at the ela, melt dominates where precipitation is high and sublimation dominates where precipitation is low. the relationship between the ablation pattern and precipitation pattern is highlighted in fig. 6. the scatterplot shows that melt dominates regions where precipitation is greater than  0.5 m yr 1and sublimation dominates in regions where precipitation is less than  0.25 m yr 1. the shapes around the dots in fig. 6 represent the three different zones. these shapes highlight the regions dominated by sublimation and those that are dominated by melt. in particular, the eastern zone is entirely dominated by melt at the ela. both the western and northern zones include regions of dominantly melt and sublimation. the reason for the general relationship between ablation and precipitation can be seen from a comparison of the seasonal cycle in the surface temperature and energy balance (discussed below). the rapid transition between melt and sublimation is discussed further in section 6.
To which intergenerational problem  is compared to?
compare it to the traditional prisoner's dilemma
Who wrote the above paragraph?
stephen m. gardiner
What is the pure version of  intergenerational problem?
where the generations do not overlap
the nature of the intergenerational problem is easiest to see if we compare it to the traditional prisoner's dilemma. suppose we consider a pure version of the intergenerational problem, where the generations do not overlap.26 (call this the `pure intergenerational problem' (pip).) in that case, the problem can be (roughly) characterised as follows27: (pip1) it is collectively rational for most generations to cooperate: (almost) every generation prefers the outcome produced by everyone restricting pollution over the outcome produced by everyone overpolluting. (pip2) it is individually rational for all generations not to cooperate: when each generation has the power to decide whether or not it will overpollute, each generation (rationally) prefers to overpollute, whatever the others do. stephen m. gardiner
What three things does a baseline vulnerability assessment target?
both communities (and many others) have emphasised the construction of a baseline vulnerability assessment as a procedural and technical means to target urgent adaptation (for example, in the national adaptation programmes of action), to identify critical relief needs (for instance, the world food programme) and for project planning (including various forms of rapid appraisal adopted by donors and ngos) (see box 2 
What kind of evaluation has been done on vulnerability assessments?
however, there is little formal evaluation of vulnerability assessment techniques (see, though, stephen and downing, 2001 and indifferent experience as to whether the baselines actually inform decision-making
What is the concentration of most widely distributed protocols?
most of the widely distributed protocols still concentrate on what is exposed instead of understanding the processes and dynamics of exposure and responses
both communities (and many others) have emphasised the construction of a baseline vulnerability assessment as a procedural and technical means to target urgent adaptation (for example, in the national adaptation programmes of action), to identify critical relief needs (for instance, the world food programme) and for project planning (including various forms of rapid appraisal adopted by donors and ngos) (see box 2 ). however, there is little formal evaluation of vulnerability assessment techniques (see, though, stephen and downing, 2001 and indifferent experience as to whether the baselines actually inform decision-making. perhaps more salient for climate change adaptation is the focus on snapshots of indicators and status rather than the dynamics of individuals, groups and societies vis-a-vis their perception of risk, evaluation of alternative actions and the evolution of complex behaviour in response to multiples of goals and stresses. most of the widely distributed protocols still concentrate on what is exposed instead of understanding the processes and dynamics of exposure and responses.
In the 2001 IPCC report, how much did the authors expect the climate would warm by in the year 2100?
in 2001, the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) released its third assessment report (tar), which stated that the authors expected that the climate would warm between 1.4o to 5.8o c by 2100
How are the elements of risk classically defined?
the elements of risk, which is classically defined as probability x consequence
What surprises did the IPCC say climate change could trigger?
these surprises could include collapse of the "conveyor belt" circulation in the north atlantic ocean or rapid deglaciation of polar ice sheets
investigator: stephen h. schneider, melvin and joan lane professor for interdisciplinary environmental studies; professor, department of biological sciences; professor by courtesy, department of civil and environmental engineering; professor, co-director, and senior fellow, center for environmental science and policy at the stanford institute for international studies sponsors: partial support from the winslow foundation, the u.s. department of energy, and the national science foundation description: in 2001, the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) released its third assessment report (tar), which stated that the authors expected that the climate would warm between 1.4o to 5.8o c by 2100. based on these temperature forecasts, the ipcc has produced a list of likely effects of climate change, some of which are positive (e.g., longer high-latitude growing seasons), but most of which are negative, including more frequent heat waves (and less frequent cold spells); more intense storms (hurricanes, tropical cyclones, etc.), and a surge in weather-related damage; increased intensity of floods and droughts; warmer surface temperatures, especially at higher latitudes; more rapid spread of disease; loss of farming productivity, mostly at lower latitudes; rising sea levels, which could inundate coastal areas and small island nations; and species extinction and loss of biodiversity. the ipcc also suggested that climate change could trigger "surprises": rapid, non-linear responses of the climate system to anthropogenic forcing, thought to occur when environmental thresholds are crossed and new (and not always beneficial) equilibriums are reached. these surprises could include collapse of the "conveyor belt" circulation in the north atlantic ocean or rapid deglaciation of polar ice sheets and would likely qualify as what the 1992 united nations framework convention on climate change (unfccc) called "dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system." unfortunately, climate change assessments rarely consider low-probability, but high-consequence extreme events like surprises. thus, decision-makers reading the "standard" literature will rarely appreciate the full range of possible climate change outcomes, and might be more willing to risk adapting to prospective changes rather than attempting to avoid them through abatement than they would be otherwise. we advocate an inclusion of abrupt events in scientific climate assessments, so that scientists can aid policymakers in defining "dangerous," particularly by outlining the elements of risk, which is classically defined as probability x consequence, and suggesting policy measures that may be effective in reducing the chances of dangerous climate change occurring. determining what constitutes "dangerous" climate change can be informed by scientific research, but it is ultimately a value-laden process, one that will undoubtedly lead to different assessments of danger for different stakeholders in different regions, who will apply different perceptions and values to the question. although there are some impact categories for which thresholds exist beyond which there is a nonlinear response (e.g., ice sheet collapse), there are other categories for which different points along a rising continuum of impact intensity will be seen as "dangerous" by different people (e.g., sea level rise). ultimately, what constitutes "dangerous" climate change must be decided by value judgments of policymakers, based on what risks they are willing to face and what risks must be avoided (hopefully, decisions based on sound scientific information).
Where is biomass assumed to be located?
the biomass is assumed to be present only in the reactor
What happens in the calculation of the sludge age?
in the calculation of the sludge age, the solids present in the final settling unit and in the recirculation line have not been considered
What needs to be clearly stated when presenting the sludge age value?
if the component of the mass of 398 basic principles of wastewater treatment solids present in the settling tank is incorporated, this needs to be clearly stated when presenting the sludge age value
the biomass is assumed to be present only in the reactor in the calculation of the sludge age, the solids present in the final settling unit and in the recirculation line have not been considered. this is only a question of convention, and normally only the mass in the reactor is considered, due to the greater simplicity associated with this procedure (measurement of only the ss concentration in the reactor). if the component of the mass of 398 basic principles of wastewater treatment solids present in the settling tank is incorporated, this needs to be clearly stated when presenting the sludge age value.
What is the scope of invasive species management in the future?
the future of management of invasive species will involve new tools developed from research that integrates invasion and climate-change biology (table 2). increased monitoring and more interagency and interstate coordination will also be necessary (bierwagen et al. 2008 [this issue]). monitoring and coordination similar to the early detection and rapid response system envisioned by the national invasive species management plan may be a useful vehicle for new vigilance under climate change
What are the different measures of invasive species management in the country?
early detection and rapid response system envisioned by the national invasive species management plan may be a useful vehicle for new vigilance under climate change (nisc 2001; westbrooks 2004). some states, such as kansas, already communicate with their southern and northern neighbors to determine species distributions and share successful management activities (u.s. epa 2008). delaware also is performing surveys to detect changes over time in aquatic invasive species (u.s. epa 2008), and these activities will need to be more widespread
What are the difficulties to face in invasive species management?
many problems with invasive species are immediate and severe. climate change, in contrast, is more subtle and long term, and resource managers have a difficult time knowing when to start addressing it. it will take more research to understand how specific invasive species may behave under an altered climate and which new species will emerge as invasive
the future of management of invasive species will involve new tools developed from research that integrates invasion and climate-change biology (table 2). increased monitoring and more interagency and interstate coordination will also be necessary (bierwagen et al. 2008 [this issue]). monitoring and coordination similar to the early detection and rapid response system envisioned by the national invasive species management plan may be a useful vehicle for new vigilance under climate change (nisc 2001; westbrooks 2004). some states, such as kansas, already communicate with their southern and northern neighbors to determine species distributions and share successful management activities (u.s. epa 2008). delaware also is performing surveys to detect changes over time in aquatic invasive species (u.s. epa 2008), and these activities will need to be more widespread. finally, risk assessments over a broader geographic area than have traditionally been performed will be essential. it will be considerably easier to prevent the of harmful non-native species than to project their impact in novel and changing environments. many problems with invasive species are immediate and severe. climate change, in contrast, is more subtle and long term, and resource managers have a difficult time knowing when to start addressing it. it will take more research to understand how specific invasive species may behave under an altered climate and which new species will emerge as invasive (table 2). the 5 consequences described earlier provide a starting point for that research. unfortunately, the timescale for pursuing that research and using it to inform novel management techniques is short.
What is the definition of "systemic failure" exemplified by the GFC (Global Financial Crisis)?
situations in which failing to think and act systemically leads to breakdown or some form of 'failure' 14, 15 either of policy or practice
How has the term 'systemic failure' been misused in recent years?
when choosing to describe situations as if they were systemic failures there has been a tendency, in recent years, for government ministers, bureaucrats, ceos etc. to use the term 'sys temic failure' as a means to abrogate responsibility
What 'culture' did the author claim has become endemic in the British New Labour government?
in my first example i want to address the failings of what some have called the 'targets culture', a culture that has become endemic in the british new labour government as well as widespread in other areas of government and corporate life
there are seemingly no shortage of situations in which failing to think and act systemically leads to breakdown or some form of 'failure' 14, 15 either of policy or practice. several commentators have, for example, described the gfc (global financial crisis) as exemplifying systemic failure. by its very nature there are many factors that give rise to any case of systemic failure. however, when choosing to describe situations as if they were systemic failures there has been a tendency, in recent years, for government ministers, bureaucrats, ceos etc. to use the term 'sys temic failure' as a means to abrogate responsibility. whilst the claims these people make may have some validity it is, from my perspective, unacceptable for such claims to be made without some accompanying appreciation of how the systemic failure came to happen! by so doing these commentators fail to recognise that they are a participant and the opportunity (or part of the opportunity) to shift the dynamic may reside in their jurisdiction, hence there is an ethical responsibility, i.e. a higher calling to respond! when the explanation 'systemic failure' is not accompanied by a commitment and openness to inquiry into the circumstances of the 'failure' then an abrogation of responsibility occurs. responsibility is denied when those involved are not open to learning and change.6 otherwise the claim to systemic failure is no better than an attempt to explain something away through a sort of magic! in my first example i want to address the failings of what some have called the 'targets culture', a culture that has become endemic in the british new labour government as well as widespread in other areas of government and corporate life. i have come to understand this situation as exemplifying the privileging of systematic approaches over systemic, sometimes at considerable social cost. take for example the case described by simon caulkin 8 in reading 7.7
How was safety citizenship behavior measured?
by having the team leaders rate each team member's performance of the safety citizenship behaviors
What does the Likert-type frequency rating scale range from?
from 1 does not engage in this behavior to 5 very frequently engages in this behavior
What do higher scores mean on the Likert-type frequency rating scale?
higher scores reflected more frequent performance of the behavior
research reports leader ratings of safety citizenship behavior. safety citizenship behavior was measured by having the team leaders rate each team member's performance of the safety citizenship behaviors (i.e., the 27 safety citizenship items). a 5-point likert-type frequency rating scale was used with anchors ranging from 1 does not engage in this behavior to 5 very frequently engages in this behavior ). scale scores were created such that higher scores reflected more frequent performance of the behavior. once again, each of the subscales demonstrated high average intercorrelations (average r  .71). thus, to be consistent with our measure of safety citizenship role definitions, we created an overall measure of safety citizenship behavior consisting of all 27 safety citizenship items (internal consistency reliability  .96).
As poikilothermic animals, insects have limited ability to do what?
regulate their body temperature
What has there has been longstanding interest in?
the mechanisms by which insects are able to survive in the most severe of winter climates
What is an essential requirement for the overwintering success of many temperate and colder climate species?
diapause
as poikilothermic animals, insects have limited ability to regulate their body temperature and whilst this lack of internal thermal homeostasis might be viewed as disadvantageous, meglitsch nevertheless described insects as among the most successful of animals (meglitsch, 1972). a review of the likely impacts of a changing climate on the low temperature biology of insects is clearly a complex subject but there are three factors that are particularly important to consider: the cold tolerance of species under prevailing climatic conditions, the occurrence of diapause, and the direct and indirect effects of higher temperatures on one or both of these overwintering processes. there has been longstanding interest in the mechanisms by which insects are able to survive in the most severe of winter climates, in which the main principles were established by the pioneering studies of salt (salt, 1961). what has sometimes been overlooked is firstly, that whilst polar regions may appear inhospitable to life on earth, permanent winter snow cover usually provides a buffered and thermally stable microclimate for overwintering invertebrates, and secondly, the great majority of studies on insect cold hardiness have focused on 'cold hardy insects', i.e. those that regularly experience some level of winter cold stress. the first part of this review will therefore provide a summary of the main features of the freezetolerant and freeze-avoiding strategies, consider the range of thermal tolerances exhibited by species inhabiting different climatic zones, and then highlight some of the possible direct and indirect effects of higher temperatures on insect survival in winter. diapause is an essential requirement for the overwintering success of many temperate and colder climate species, and the diapause state is known to confer increased cold hardiness in the absence of low temperature acclimatisation (this usually follows naturally in the transition from summer through to autumn and to winter) (pullin and bale, 1989); and yet the research disciplines of 'insect cold hardiness' and 'diapause' have often appeared 'separate' (denlinger, 1991; pullin, 1996). in reviewing the literature on how a changing climate might affect insect overwintering and diapause, there are few studies that have addressed this question directly by experimentation. against this background, the second part of this review will place the diapause response in the context of insect overwintering, explain the role of 'sensitive' and 'diapausing' lifecycle stages within the framework of diapause induction, maintenance and termination, and then use this knowledge to discuss how higher temperatures may disrupt successful progression through the sequential phases of the diapause syndrome. whilst experiments targeted at elucidating the effects of higher temperatures on both insect overwintering and diapause are limited, long-term data collected originally for other purposes provide some of the most compelling evidence for the ability of insects to exploit
Who asked the four questions about the future?
in a short 1997 commentary, simon shackley asked four pertinent questions about the status and future of the ipcc
What are Simon Shockley's questions?
to paraphrase them: can the ipcc involve more scientists from developing countries? will it preserve its authority as a trusted expert body? can it avoid its open processes becoming hostage to endless political negotiation? will the ipcc define a clear role for itself, sufficiently distinct from the policy process itself
What is Simon Shockley's review?
he rest of this review will summarise research that has been completed since shackley asked these questions and help point towards some possible answers
in a short 1997 commentary, simon shackley asked four pertinent questions about the status and future of the ipcc. to paraphrase them: can the ipcc involve more scientists from developing countries? will it preserve its authority as a trusted expert body? can it avoid its open processes becoming hostage to endless political negotiation? will the ipcc define a clear role for itself, sufficiently distinct from the policy process itself? shackley concluded his commentary by noting: "of particular concern is whether the ipcc can make its knowledge more socially relevant and trusted by bridging the gulf which exists between scientific experts and on-the-ground decision-makers and members of the public" (shackley, 1997: 174). these questions relating to participation, trust, governance and policy advocacy remain as critical today as they did then. the rest of this review will summarise research that has been completed since shackley asked these questions and help point towards some possible answers.
Which is viewed as a descriptive concept ?
climate has always been viewed as a descriptive concept (referring to facts about the environment), in contrast to, for instance, the evaluative construct of job satisfaction
What does Broader psychological research  pointed?
broader psychological research has pointed to the inseparability of descriptive and evaluative perceptions
Explain about  programme of investigations by Osgood?
an extensive programme of investigations by osgood et al (1957) revealed that the first factor in perceived meanings of any stimulus was evaluative (with smaller factors of potency and activity); evaluation (a general like or dislike, pro or con, approach or avoid response) is inherent in the perceived meaning of any construct
climate has always been viewed as a descriptive concept (referring to facts about the environment), in contrast to, for instance, the evaluative construct of job satisfaction. however, there has long been concern that this conceptual separation is not maintained in practice (e.g. guion, 1973). some descriptive items in climate questionnaires have an obviously value-laden content (e.g. "this company cares for its employees"), and many others have implications about personal benefit (e.g. "this company provides a lot of training"). description and affect are thus likely to be combined in responses to at least some climate items. broader psychological research has pointed to the inseparability of descriptive and evaluative perceptions. for example, an extensive programme of investigations by osgood et al (1957) revealed that the first factor in perceived meanings of any stimulus was evaluative (with smaller factors of potency and activity); evaluation (a general like or dislike, pro or con, approach or avoid response) is inherent in the perceived meaning of any construct. although an object of perception may be described in factual terms, evaluative connotations cannot be avoided.
In the 1998 flood caused by excessive rainfall in Dhaka, which areas were flooded?
in the 1998 fl ood, there was excessive rainfall in dhaka, causing short duration fl ooding in the areas of shantinagar, nayapaltan, rajarbag, dhanmodi, azimpur and green road
Which areas were not flooded in the 1988 flood?
only parts of mirpur, tejgaon, banani, sher-e-banglanagar, azimpur and the old town were not fl ooded
How often were floods of the 1988 flood's intensity estimated to hit the country?
it was estimated that fl oods of this intensity hit the country only once every 70 years
development board is in charge of operating the regulators and gates. in fact, there was neither operating policy nor assigned person to operate the rampura regulator that controls the drainage of 40 per cent of the protected area under phase i of dhaka integrated flood protection project in the 1998 fl ood, there was excessive rainfall in dhaka, causing short duration fl ooding in the areas of shantinagar, nayapaltan, rajarbag, dhanmodi, azimpur and green road. the runoff generated by the rainfall could not fl ow into the surrounding rivers as the river stage was higher than the inside fl ow.(10) therefore, the accumulated runoff in low-lying areas remained stagnant until the river stage receded, causing extensive waterlogging in dhaka west. figure 1 shows the extent of 1998 fl ooding in dhaka. in 1988, one of the most severe fl oods in recent history hit dhaka and inundated 85 per cent of the city. it was estimated that fl oods of this intensity hit the country only once every 70 years. inundation depths ranged from 0.3 to more than 4.5 metres and about 60 per cent of the city dwellers were affected.(11) this unprecedented level of fl ooding disrupted city life and air travel, and communications between dhaka and the outside world were cut off for about 2 weeks. data on the impacts and damage from the 1988 fl ood were compiled and analyzed according to component eight of the fl ood action plan. all of eastern dhaka and all the low-lying areas of western dhaka were under fl oodwater. only parts of mirpur, tejgaon, banani, sher-e-banglanagar, azimpur and the old town were not fl ooded.
How do forests store carbon?
forests store carbon within vegetation and soil
What helps to reduce the increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations?
increasing forest area (through reforestation or reduced deforestation) and increasing carbon storage per unit area of forest (e.g. through sustainable logging practices) can help to slow the increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations
What are the many ways in which forests affect climate?
climate mitigation is complicated by the multiple ways in which forests impact climate. in addition to impacts on the global carbon cycle, forests can alter the composition of the atmosphere through the emission of gas-phase and aerosol species (biogeochemical effects) and can modify land-surface properties (biophysical effects
there is growing interest in the use of forest management to mitigate anthropogenic climate change. forests store carbon within vegetation and soil, so increasing forest area (through reforestation or reduced deforestation) and increasing carbon storage per unit area of forest (e.g. through sustainable logging practices) can help to slow the increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. however, climate mitigation is complicated by the multiple ways in which forests impact climate. in addition to impacts on the global carbon cycle, forests can alter the composition of the atmosphere through the emission of gas-phase and aerosol species (biogeochemical effects) and can modify land-surface properties (biophysical effects). in this paper, we use a global
How important is data for analysis?
statistical downscaling is most useful for health assessment in data-rich regions. on the basis of statistical downscaling techniques, heat-related deaths in california are estimated to more than double by the year 2100 (ref. 68). pursuing early warning systems
How important is the alert system in today's world?
currently, over two dozen cities worldwide have a 'synoptic-based' weather-watch warning system, which focuses monitoring on dangerous air masses72. these systems successfully forecast most days with excess deaths in rome during the 2003 heatwave73, and have been implemented successfully in shanghai, for example74. however, variability in predictability between cities suggests that systems must be location-specific, requiring the input of considerable amounts of health-related and meteorological data for each locale75
statistical downscaling is most useful for health assessment in data-rich regions. on the basis of statistical downscaling techniques, heat-related deaths in california are estimated to more than double by the year 2100 (ref. 68). pursuing early warning systems. current early warning systems for infectious diseases are beginning to show some utility. for example, over two-thirds of the inter-annual variability of malaria in botswana can be predicted from the ssts and associated monthly rainfall69. for more direct health impacts from heatwaves, although uncertainty still remains as to which weather parameters are most hazardous, a number of studies have consistently identified high minimum (night-time) temperatures, duration, and early seasonal occurrence of heatwaves as particularly dangerous conditions70. therefore, early warning systems may offer some health protection from the effects of heatwaves. for example, after the 1995 heatwave in the united states, the city of milwaukee initiated an 'extreme heat conditions plan' involving local agencies, communications tests, stepped responses to early forecasts, a 24-hour 'hotline' and other interventions. reductions in heat-related morbidity (measured by emergency ambulance runs) and mortality were reduced by 49% from expected levels during a heatwave in 1999, and were not attributable to differences in heat levels alone71. currently, over two dozen cities worldwide have a 'synoptic-based' weather-watch warning system, which focuses monitoring on dangerous air masses72. these systems successfully forecast most days with excess deaths in rome during the 2003 heatwave73, and have been implemented successfully in shanghai, for example74. however, variability in predictability between cities suggests that systems must be location-specific, requiring the input of considerable amounts of health-related and meteorological data for each locale75.
What is the expansion of RCEP?
royal commission report on environmental pollution
Scenarios of RCEP?
introduce issues of what energy sources will be used and the impacts of related choices on future climates
What is RCEP?
the royal commission report on environmental pollution (rcep), 6 published in june 2000, has proved to be one of the most influential of all scenario sets for the built environment
the royal commission report on environmental pollution (rcep), 6 published in june 2000, has proved to be one of the most influential of all scenario sets for the built environment. the report suggested what appeared to be, then, deep cuts necessary in emissions from buildings of 60% by 2050 and 80% by 2100, to contain climate change. these dramatic cuts, only nine years down the road from publication, are now taken for granted and used as target values in government emissions reductions programmes. the rcep scenarios introduce issues of what energy sources will be used and the impacts of related choices on future climates.
What is a research community?
to improve this situation, the research community is working to generate relatively high-resolution information concerning possible impacts on crop and livestock production and productivity
Define "hotspots"?
the first step usually involves using broad-brush approaches to identify likely "hotspots". for example, ilri, in concert with various partners from africa, asia and europe, has identified regional "hotspots" that are already vulnerable and that are likely to suffer substantial impacts as a result of climate change
What is a biophysical impact?
this involves dealing with biophysical vulnerability, or the sensitivity of the natural environment to an exposure to a hazard; and social vulnerability, or the sensitivity of the human environment to the exposure. in such an approach, an impact is thus a function of hazard exposure and both types of vulnerability
to improve this situation, the research community is working to generate relatively high-resolution information concerning possible impacts on crop and livestock production and productivity. the first step usually involves using broad-brush approaches to identify likely "hotspots". for example, ilri, in concert with various partners from africa, asia and europe, has identified regional "hotspots" that are already vulnerable and that are likely to suffer substantial impacts as a result of climate change. in this work, a "starting point" approach to vulnerability is taken, in which vulnerability to climate change is seen as a state that is governed not just by climate change itself but by multiple processes and stressors. this involves dealing with biophysical vulnerability, or the sensitivity of the natural environment to an exposure to a hazard; and social vulnerability, or the sensitivity of the human environment to the exposure. in such an approach, an impact is thus a function of hazard exposure and both types of vulnerability.
What percentage of people did DEFRA find to recognise the term "climate change"?
for example, a survey by defra (2007a) found 99% of people surveyed recognized the term climate change
What percentage of the UK public state climate change is an issue the government needs to deal with?
with just 1% stating the same about climate change or global warming (defra, 2007a
Where do most of the general public receive their information on climate change?
the most significant channel of information that the general public receives about climate change is the mass media, which arguably has a great influence on people's perceptions of the issue (carvalho burgess, 2005; trumbo shanahan, 2000
the u.k. public is increasingly recognizing climate change as a reality. for example, a survey by defra (2007a) found 99% of people surveyed recognized the term climate change defra claims that within the united kingdom, being "green" is now seen as a social norm rather than an alternative way of life. thus far, strategies by the government for reducing individuals' emissions have steered away from regulation and instead focused on encouraging voluntary uptake of decarbonization behaviors and practices. a myriad of u.k. agents beside the government also urge individuals to cut their carbon dioxide emissions and to change their behavior in relation to climate change (e.g., defra, 2007b; marks and spencer plc, 2007; rising tide, 2007). yet recognition of the language of climate and even recognizing climate change as a risk issue arguably represent a fairly superficial engagement. risk research indicates that the public rank climate change as lower priority than other risk issues such as genetically modified foods or nuclear power (e.g., poortinga pidgeon, 2003). without prompting, over a third of the u.k. public state crime, health, economic concerns, and education as issues the government should deal with, with just 1% stating the same about climate change or global warming (defra, 2007a). other risk issues such as these are more immediate and pressing on a daily basis, with climate change being a much less tangible issue of concern. lorenzoni et al. (2007) illustrate this and a host of other barriers that are preventing people from engaging with climate change in ways that go beyond the tokenistic. the most significant channel of information that the general public receives about climate change is the mass media, which arguably has a great influence on people's perceptions of the issue (carvalho burgess, 2005; trumbo shanahan, 2000). contemporary forms of mass communication are saturated with images and stories that have the potential to influence people's perceptions. these help to communicate and simplify information, making messages memorable, condensing complex information, communicating concepts instantly, and providing a basis for personal thoughts and social interactions that contribute to people's memories, awareness, and opinions about particular issues (e.g., farr, 1993; graber, 1990). examining different approaches to stimulating public engagement can help to inform how future climate change communications can be designed to encourage voluntary domestic decarbonization (in travel, leisure, and household activities) and the policy acceptance needed if society is to substantially reduce its ghg emissions.
Which news' networks was least likely to be accepting of climate change  ?
fox news was simultaneously the least likely to be accepting and the most likely to be dismissive of climate change
what is the percentage of broadcast news that were accepting of climate change?
more than 70 percent of cnn and msnbc broadcasts were accepting of climate change
which broadcasts took a dismissive tone toward climate change
not a single msnbc broadcast took a dismissive tone toward climate change and just 7 percent of cnn broadcasts did so
the overall tone of coverage varied significantly across networks, kh2(6, n 269) 93.48, p .001. of the three networks, fox news was simultaneously the least likely to be accepting and the most likely to be dismissive of climate change (see figure 1). nearly 60 percent of fox news broadcasts were dismissive of climate change, whereas less than 20 percent were accepting of climate change. on the other hand, more than 70 percent of cnn and msnbc broadcasts were accepting of climate change. not a single msnbc broadcast took a dismissive tone toward climate change and just 7 percent of cnn broadcasts did so.
Regarding to human-made emissions, what are scientists confident of?
that human-made emissions of greenhouse gases are warming the planet and are likely to continue doing so
What do scientists have developed a confidence terminology for?
scientists developed a "confidence terminology" to communicate estimates of uncertainty via everyday language
When can the term "likelihood terminology" be used?
in cases where probabilistic estimates could be made, the ipcc also used "likelihood terminology" to define the likelihood of an outcome or result
too often discussions of climate science uncertainty convey the mistaken impression that scientists are hopelessly confused about this complicated subject, when in fact the uncertainties about exactly how much warmer the planet will be in 100 years do not change the very high confidence scientists have that human-made emissions of greenhouse gases are warming the planet and are likely to continue doing so. to address this problem, ipcc scientists developed a "confidence terminology" to communicate estimates of uncertainty via everyday language. for example, "very high confidence" was used to refer to a prediction that has at least a nine out of ten chance of being correct. other such terms included "high," "medium," "low," and "very low" confidence. "very low confidence" referred to a prediction that had less than a one out of ten chance of being correct. in cases where probabilistic estimates could be made, the ipcc also used "likelihood terminology" to define the likelihood of an outcome or result. "virtually certain" had the highest likelihood with a greater than 99 percent probability, while "likely" denoted only a 66 percent or more probability of occurrence.4\\x18
what is the study of McCright and Dunlap
the work by mccright and dunlap has highlighted the effectiveness of organized climate sceptic groups in influencing us policy making in the 1990s and early 2000s, including their central role in the rejection of the kyoto protocol by the us congress (mccright and dunlap 2003 
how many times individual sceptics were quoted in the articles over the two periods
260 times individual sceptics were quoted in the articles over the two periods
how many times types 1 and  2 mentioned in the articles
184 of them were of types 1 and 2
the work by mccright and dunlap has highlighted the effectiveness of organized climate sceptic groups in influencing us policy making in the 1990s and early 2000s, including their central role in the rejection of the kyoto protocol by the us congress (mccright and dunlap 2003 ). applying the rahmstorf taxonomy described above, we wanted to test if the usa stood out compared to other countries for the presence of sceptics who have serious doubts about the scale and nature of the impacts and/or question the need for robust action to combat climate change (the type 3 sceptics described above). of the 260 times individual sceptics were quoted in the articles over the two periods, 184 of them were of types 1 and 2, namely those who deny global temperatures are warming or question the anthropogenic contribution to global warming16. this is well over twice the amount of times type 3 sceptics were mentioned (76). the country variations are notable.
What does Tanzania regularly suffer from?
5.2 attention to climate risks in donor strategies tanzania regularly suffers from various climate-related hazards, including droughts that have tanzania regularly suffers from various climate-related hazards, including droughts that have substantial effects on economic performance and poverty
What turns up in the context of economic analyses?
many development plans and projects recognize this influence, and tanzania's climate even turns up in the context of economic analyses
What could be affected by climate risks?
given the extensive share of development activities in tanzania that could be affected by climate risks, one would assume that these risks are reflected in development plans and a large share of development projects
given the extensive share of development activities in tanzania that could be affected by climate risks, one would assume that these risks are reflected in development plans and a large share of development projects. the following sections examine to which extent this is the case. 5.2 attention to climate risks in donor strategies tanzania regularly suffers from various climate-related hazards, including droughts that have tanzania regularly suffers from various climate-related hazards, including droughts that have substantial effects on economic performance and poverty. many development plans and projects recognize this influence, and tanzania's climate even turns up in the context of economic analyses. however, few of the development plans and projects that were reviewed take these risks into account. given that current climate risks are already being neglected, it comes as no surprise that climate change is often ignored
What is the focus of this review?
this review focuses on biotic responses during intervals of time in the fossil record when the magnitude and rate of climate change exceeded or were comparable with those predicted to occur in the next century (solomon et al. 2007
What position does this review hold?
we argue that although the mechanisms responsible for these past changes in climate were different (i.e., natural processes rather than anthropogenic), the rate and magnitude of climate change were often similar to those predicted for the next century and therefore highly relevant to understanding future biotic responses
What are the three most commonly predicted future biotic scenarios?
extirpation, migration (in the form of a permanent range shift), or adaptation
this review focuses on biotic responses during intervals of time in the fossil record when the magnitude and rate of climate change exceeded or were comparable with those predicted to occur in the next century (solomon et al. 2007). these include biotic responses during: a the paleo-eocene thermal maximum and early eocene climatic optimum, b the mid-pliocene warm interval, c the eemian, and d the most recent glacial-interglacial transition into the holocene. we argue that although the mechanisms responsible for these past changes in climate were different (i.e., natural processes rather than anthropogenic), the rate and magnitude of climate change were often similar to those predicted for the next century and therefore highly relevant to understanding future biotic responses. in all intervals we examine the fossil evidence for the three most commonly predicted future biotic scenarios, namely, extirpation, migration (in the form of a permanent range shift), or adaptation. focusing predominantly on the terrestrial plant fossil record, we find little evidence for extirpation during warmer intervals; rather, range shifts, community turnover, adaptation, and sometimes an increase in diversity are observed.
When did global food supply and distribution develop rapidly enough to keep abreast of population growth?
during the second half of the twentieth century, global food supply and distribution developed rapidly enough to keep abreast of population growth
What is the purpose of this review?
the purpose of this review is to provide a critical overview of the now extensive literature on the tightly coupled relationship between climate change and food systems
What is arguably one of the greatest challenges to food security?
climate change, and especially increased climate variability, is, however, arguably one of the greatest challenges to food security
during the second half of the twentieth century, global food supply and distribution developed rapidly enough to keep abreast of population growth and, for many regions, to bring gains to food security in terms of more affordable, reliable, and safe food for all sectors of society. the last decade has seen a rapid reversal of these gains. achieving food security in the face of accelerating food demand, competition for depleting resources, and the failing ability of the environment to buffer increasing anthropogenic impacts is now widely seen as the foremost challenge of our time (1-5). climate change is one among a set of interconnected trends and risks facing agriculture and food systems (6). other components of global environmental change that are driving the future of food security include rapid changes in biodiversity, land cover, availability of freshwater, oceanic acidification, and the nitrogen and phosphorus cycles (7). future food security for allwillultimatelydependonmanagementofthe interacting trajectories of socioeconomic and environmental changes. climate change, and especially increased climate variability, is, however, arguably one of the greatest challenges to food security, particularly via its effects on the livelihoods of low-income individuals and communities, which have less capacity for adaptation and depend on highly climate-sensitive activities such as agriculture (8). the purpose of this review is to provide a critical overview of the now extensive literature on the tightly coupled relationship between climate change and food systems. in particular, it seeks to draw attention to wider issues of food systems beyond food production, to highlight the distribution of climate-related impacts on food security across sectors of global society, and to set out the opportunities and challenges in food systems for integrating the options for mitigation, adaptation, and food security.
What are the two most affected regions?
sabujbag and gulshan thanas were the worst affected
How many kilometers were affected approximately by the flood?
more than 600 kilometres
When did the flood occur?
1998
it is evident from various studies that damage to infrastructure, including roads, water supply and housing, was severe in 1998. it has been reported that more than 600 kilometres of the total 2,300 kilometres of road were damaged in this fl ood. all the informal settlements and business enterprises located in eastern dhaka were affected. all academic institutions (primary schools, high schools, colleges) in the area were also closed during the fl ood. it was estimated that 384 kilometres of paved road were inundated, a large proportion in gulshan thana .(15) there was also severe damage in sabujbag thana and in demra. the most severe disruption to water supplies from deep tubewells was in the cantonment thana also in gulshan and uttara. considering the major impacts of the fl oodwater, it appears that sabujbag and gulshan thanas were the worst affected, followed by demra, uttara and cantonment thanas .(16)
Regarding food insecurity, what did ninety-eight percent of respondents report? reported that the amount of income from agricultural production, which was their main source of income, followed by wage labor, varied from year to year
coping strategies in response to food insecurity ninety-eight percent of respondents reported that the amount of income from farm produce, which was their primary source of income, followed by wage labour, varied from year to year
What happened to the income from agricultural products? was impacted in order of importance by climate, productivity, prices
income from farm produce was impacted in order of importance by the weather, yield, prices, availability of power supply and labour availability
How is income for food security for agricultural families? It is critical
income is critical to the food security of the farming households, as food is sourced primarily through purchases rather than only through their own production
coping strategies in response to food insecurity ninety-eight percent of respondents reported that the amount of income from farm produce, which was their primary source of income, followed by wage labour, varied from year to year and was linked to climate variability. income from farm produce was impacted in order of importance by the weather, yield, prices, availability of power supply and labour availability. this suggests that farmers' food security varies from year to year along with income. income is critical to the food security of the farming households, as food is sourced primarily through purchases rather than only through their own production. in a year with below normal rainfall, farmers obtained their food from multiple sources, including the public distribution system (pds)26(94 percent), the open market (75 percent), stored produce (53 percent), through earnings of wage labour (48 percent) and wife's original home (3 percent). less than a third of respondents noted they could not buy sufficient food for the entire family, suggesting that for the majority of respondents, sufficient amounts of food were available, despite the unfavourable climate conditions. while there was availability of food, the utilization component of food security did not appear to be sufficient in a dry year. one quarter of respondents reported that their households had sufficient food but not the types of food they wanted to eat. most respondents found the food to be somewhat nutritious and a third did not think it was at all nutritious. for those families that did not have sufficient food during a low rainfall year, the coping strategy for dealing with this shortfall was for all family members to eat less. however, more women than men noted that they themselves would eat less. in fact, men were more likely than women to say that the whole family had sufficient food (56 percent of men vs. 34 percent of women). also, women were much more likely to say that their husband got sufficient food (24 percent) than men would say their wives got sufficient food (1 percent). as men were not involved in food preparation, they were more likely to be unaware of the actual food distribution. in the qualitative focus group discussions, women described eating two instead of three meals: they distributed food first to men, then to children (boys and girls) and finally to themselves. this gender-based distribution of food is a traditional coping strategy for dealing with food scarcity and takes place usually even without low rainfall (and is based on the 'value' and 'worth' culturally assigned to men and women); however, it appeared to be exacerbated during a dry year. in-household access to food must be considered when examining how climate variability impacts food security. finally, the stability of the farmers' food security appeared to vary over the course of the year and was tied to climate variability. the men and women of malkapur village (mahbubnagar district) described how during the june to october season of 2008 they relied on the public distribution system (pds) for mostly white rice and stored food from
However, we would suggest that the range of 1 to 1.5 is likely to be of greater interest to most of which observers?
however, we would suggest that the range of 1 to 1.5 is likely to be of greater interest to most ethical observers
We do recognise that the combination of e 1 and d 0.1% places a very high weight on what?
we do recognise that the combination of e 1 and d 0.1% places a very high weight on the future
If, for example, technical progress contributes significantly to growth, then e 1 together with a low d are consistent with current rates of what?
if, for example, technical progress contributes significantly to growth, then e 1 together with a low d are consistent with current rates of savings
in considering a range of values of e and d we have to go back to first principles. for e we would suggest that the above discussion points to a reasonable range of between 1 and 2 for sensitivity analysis. however, we would suggest that the range of 1 to 1.5 is likely to be of greater interest to most ethical observers. we do recognise that the combination of e 1 and d 0.1% places a very high weight on the future (see the appendix to chapter 2 of the review on convergence of utility integration). and we recognise that there is a plausible ethical case for a higher e it is a mistake, however, to argue that e 1 together with a low d necessarily imply very high savings rates if incorporated into an optimum savings model (as dasgupta, 2006, and nordhaus, 2006, have done). the reason is that the optimum savings rates in such models also depend on assumptions about the structure of production, including technical progress. if, for example, technical progress contributes significantly to growth, then e 1 together with a low d are consistent with current rates of savings.
For the years of 1961-2100, how many regional climate models were ensembled for the precipitation, wind speed, and seasonal mean temperature over Europe?
seasonal mean temperature, precipitation and wind speed over europe are analysed in an ensemble of 16 regional climate model (rcm) simulations for 1961-2100
The biases in the  1961-1990 period are strongly related to what errors?
biases in the 1961-1990 period are strongly related to errors in the large-scale circulation in the gcms
Uncertainty depends on the choice of GCM's representation of what changes?
uncertainty largely depends on choice of gcm and their representation of changes in the large-scale circulation
(manuscript received 18 december 2009; in final form 18 june 2010) seasonal mean temperature, precipitation and wind speed over europe are analysed in an ensemble of 16 regional climate model (rcm) simulations for 1961-2100. the rcm takes boundary conditions from seven global climate models (gcms) under four emission scenarios. one gcm was run three times under one emission scenario differing only in initial conditions. the ensemble is used to; (i) evaluate the simulated climate for 1961-1990, (ii) assess future climate change and (iii) illustrate uncertainties in future climate change related to natural variability, boundary conditions and emissions. biases in the 1961-1990 period are strongly related to errors in the large-scale circulation in the gcms. significant temperature increases are seen for all of europe already in the next decades. precipitation increases in northern and decreases in southern europe with a zone in between where the sign of change is uncertain. wind speed decreases in many areas with exceptions in the northern seas and in parts of the mediterranean in summer. uncertainty largely depends on choice of gcm and their representation of changes in the large-scale circulation. the uncertainty related to forcing is most important by the end of the century while natural variability sometimes dominates the uncertainty in the nearest few decades.
Compared to what?
in the pursuit of knowledge, nearly every inference is based on comparison (horowitz, 2003). whether the ultimate goal is one of "describing" or "explaining" a given set of observations, comparison is the essential conduit to both, for it allows one to make judgments about which of those phenomena are more or less alike in time, space, or degree and, in so doing, permits the isolation of cause and effect (king, keohane, verba, 1994
Explain about means of comparison?
without a means of comparison, there is no context in which to understand the magnitude of a shift in public opinion, aside from the narrow metric of statistical significance
Explain to explain aggregate trends?
if a growing partisan divide now helps to explain aggregate trends, is this limited to global warming and the environment, or is it part of a broader movement toward greater polarization in american politics at large? all of these questions will be addressed below
arguably, the most important question asked by scholars in all of the social sciences is one that is also deceptively simple: "compared to what?" in the pursuit of knowledge, nearly every inference is based on comparison (horowitz, 2003). whether the ultimate goal is one of "describing" or "explaining" a given set of observations, comparison is the essential conduit to both, for it allows one to make judgments about which of those phenomena are more or less alike in time, space, or degree and, in so doing, permits the isolation of cause and effect (king, keohane, verba, 1994). without a means of comparison, there is no context in which to understand the magnitude of a shift in public opinion, aside from the narrow metric of statistical significance. is the decline in concern for global warming since 2007 more or less severe than other periods of change across a given span of time? how do shifts in public attitudes on global warming compare to other environmental issues, such as air and water pollution? and finally, if a growing partisan divide now helps to explain aggregate trends, is this limited to global warming and the environment, or is it part of a broader movement toward greater polarization in american politics at large? all of these questions will be addressed below.
What force is linked with climate in the North Atlantic-European area?
observational evidence indicates a link between enso and climate over the north atlantic-european area, with late winter cold northern european temperatures and a pattern resembling the negative phase of the north atlantic oscillation associated with many (but not all) el nino events
What experiments demonstrate the effect of El Nino?
here we use an ensemble of experiments using an extended (60-level) version of the hadley centre model to demonstrate that the effect of el nino is communicated via a teleconnection to the extratropics, an altered stationary eddy field in the extratropical troposphere, a subsequent response in the stratospheric circulation and a slow descent of signals back into the troposphere where they affect surface climate over europe
How does El Nino impact the late winter European surface?
our analysis supports the growing evidence that the late winter european surface response to el nino is via a stratospheric pathway and indicates a potential source of seasonal predictability for europe
observational evidence indicates a link between enso and climate over the north atlantic-european area, with late winter cold northern european temperatures and a pattern resembling the negative phase of the north atlantic oscillation associated with many (but not all) el nino events. here we use an ensemble of experiments using an extended (60-level) version of the hadley centre model to demonstrate that the effect of el nino is communicated via a teleconnection to the extratropics, an altered stationary eddy field in the extratropical troposphere, a subsequent response in the stratospheric circulation and a slow descent of signals back into the troposphere where they affect surface climate over europe. our analysis supports the growing evidence that the late winter european surface response to el nino is via a stratospheric pathway and indicates a potential source of seasonal predictability for europe.
what is huge stakeholder?
there is such a huge stakeholder group with interest here that, whatever information is put into the public domain, it has to be useable
Expand AICPA?
aicpa [american institute of chartered public accountants
what is secretariat?
secretariat to an international network of accounting organisations working on climate change, october 2009
"there is such a huge stakeholder group with interest here that, whatever information is put into the public domain, it has to be useable. this then raises other questions on standardisation of how do you make that information useable? what sort of technology is required? again, aicpa [american institute of chartered public accountants] has written quite extensively on use of xbrl.v and i know gri [the global reporting initiative] is looking at it. not only do you have to have the standards, you have to have the output, the presentation to translate that information into something that is actually useable ." (interview, secretariat to an international network of accounting organisations working on climate change, october 2009).
Why are the climate change mitigation policies currently being debated unlikely to make a difference in the expected rate of warming over the next 20-30 years?
those climate change mitigation policies currently being debated will do little to alter the expected rate of warming over the next 20-30 years due to the momentum already in the energy and climate systems
In which regions are temperature increases most likely to threaten agricultural productivity growth?
such temperature increases are likely to threaten agricultural productivity growth - particularly in the tropics where the bulk of the world's poor currently reside and find their livelihoods
On which two factors is adaptation potential critically dependent?
yet adaptation potential is critically dependent on access to markets, as well as the information and credit needed to develop and deploy new technologies
i. motivation the table has now been set for significant warming of the earth's surface in the coming decades. those climate change mitigation policies currently being debated will do little to alter the expected rate of warming over the next 20-30 years due to the momentum already in the energy and climate systems. the long-lived, carbon-intensive energy systems currently in place in the rapidly growing developing economies of the world, along with continued reliance on expansion of commercial land uses into carbon-rich natural environments, both serve to ensure that ghg concentrations in the atmosphere will rise in the near term. current estimates suggest that increased radiative forcings will result in temperature increases on the order of 0.3-0.4degc per decade in most agricultural regions to 2050. as we document here, such temperature increases are likely to threaten agricultural productivity growth - particularly in the tropics where the bulk of the world's poor currently reside and find their livelihoods. the extent to which these climate impacts on agriculture translate into reductions in human welfare will depend critically on the ability of farmers, agri-businesses, regional and national economies to adapt to these climate-driven changes. yet adaptation potential is critically dependent on access to markets, as well as the information and credit needed to develop and deploy new technologies. unfortunately, such access is often missing in the poorest economies. indeed, their poverty can often be traced back to missing markets, incomplete information and the inability to borrow the money needed for farming operations as elementary fertilizer applications. so we confront a situation in which climate impacts on agriculture are expected to be most severe precisely in those regions where households are least well-equipped to deal with them. therefore, understanding the potential for agricultural adaptation to climate change is
What is an important factor in determening how well the hydrological cycle is represented by climate models?
an important factor in determining how well the hydrological cycle is represented by climate models is how they partition precipitation into evapotranspiration and runoff generation
What overstimation could be occuring in models?
cold season evapotranspiration is overestimated by many of the models
How many years did ERA15 analyse for?
15-year reanalysis
evapotranspiration varies considerably between the rcms throughout the year. results from era15 (ecmwf 15-year reanalysis) coincide fairly well with the multi-model ensemble mean during warm months, but are lower during cold months. this could indicate that cold season evapotranspiration is overestimated by many of the models, however there is considerable uncertainty associated with the era15 estimate (hagemann et al. 2004 ). an important factor in determining how well the hydrological cycle is represented by climate models is how they partition precipitation into evapotranspiration and runoff generation, as shown in fig. 3 a for annual rcm values for the baltic basin. results from hbv-baltic using observations are also shown. as the latter were calibrated to observed
How many highly vulnerable countries ranked in the upper quartile?
none of the highly vulnerable countries ranked in the upper quartile for all three components of vulnerability
What is the difference in vulnerability?
there was little difference in vulnerability between the two climate change scenarios
Who were under vulnerable only under the B2 scenario?
algeria and turkey were vulnerable only under the b2 scenario
none of the highly vulnerable countries ranked in the upper quartile for all three components of vulnerability. there was little difference in vulnerability between the two climate change scenarios. algeria and turkey were vulnerable only under the b2 scenario (table 3) and burkina faso and togo were vulnerable only under the a1f1 scenario (ranked 26thand 31st, respectively). discussion this study is the first to identify nations whose economies are potentially the most vulnerable to future climate change impacts on the fisheries sector. although warming will be most pronounced at high latitudes, the countries with economies most vulnerable to warming-related effects on fisheries lie in the tropics. the high vulnerability in each of three regions - africa, northwestern south america, and asia - reflects different combinations of climate exposure, sensitivity or fisheries dependence and adaptive capacity. understanding how these various factors combine to influence vulnerability provides a useful starting point for directing future research and climate change adaptation and mitigation initiatives. two-thirds of the most vulnerable countries are in tropical africa, where fisheries are important to the poor, and regional assessments indicate that fishery production in both continental and marine waters is closely tied to climatic variation. west coast sahelian and sub-saharan countries have large coastal populations that rely upon exploitation of rich marine upwelling fisheries, landings from which are largely driven by irregular low frequency oscillation in oceanic and atmospheric climate conditions (binet 1997). fish are an important protein source for some of these west african countries, comprising nearly two-thirds of daily animal protein intake in gambia, ghana and sierra leone (fao, 2004). many of these fisheries are already subject to overfishing by both local, european and east asian fishing fleets with access agreements (alder and sumaila 2004; brashares et al. 2004). in eastern and central african fisheries, landings are derived largely from freshwaters (fao, 2004). in the deeper rift valley lakes, such as lake tanganyika, climate change has been associated with increases in surface water temperature, reduced primary productivity and reduced fish catch rate over the last century (o'reilly et al. 2003). water levels and surface areas of some large
What are the four most prominent interrelated storylines about climate change
market efficiency, energy supply, energy demand and international solutions
Why does it seem that the storylines operate relatively independently?
there is not an exclusive link between any one of the storylines and a specific network of policy actors
What drives the process of policy change.
the conflict between storylines
we have identified a number of different, and to some extent interrelated storylines about climate change, of which the four most prominent ones are about market efficiency, energy supply, energy demand and international solutions. we have noted that the storylines operate relatively independently, almost as a resource to be exploited as the various coalitions see fit - in other words that there is not an exclusive link between any one of the storylines and a specific network of policy actors. we have observed that these storylines appear to co-exist at the level of policy discourse. both these observations require more detailed empirical investigation. however, they are important because they appear to contradict key aspects of discourse coalition theory, which firstly posits a strong link between storylines and discourse coalitions, and, second, argues that it is the conflict between storylines that drives the process of policy change.
What is the basic difference between the monera/protists and the other organisms (plants and animals)?
the basic difference between the monera/protists and the other organisms (plants and animals) is the high level of cellular differentiation found in the plants and animals. this means that, in monera and protist organisms, the cells of a single individual are morphologically and functionally similar, which reduces its adaptation and development capacity
In the past, the classification of living creatures used to be according to what subdivisions?
in the past, the classification of living creatures used to be according to the two main kingdoms, plants and animals and the microorganisms were present in each of these two large subdivisions. subsequently, however, biologists have adopted a more practical division, placing microorganisms in the separate kingdoms of the monera (simpler creatures, without a separate nucleus, such as bacteria, cyanobacteria and archaea) and the protists (simple creatures, but with a separate nucleus, such as algae, fungi and protozoa
What is microbiology?
microbiology is the branch of biology that deals with microorganisms. in terms of water quality, the microorganisms play an essential role, due to their large predominance in certain environments, their action in wastewater purification processes and their association with water borne diseases. microorganisms can only be observed microscopically. some microorganism groups have properties in common with plants whilst others have some animal characteristics
microbiology is the branch of biology that deals with microorganisms. in terms of water quality, the microorganisms play an essential role, due to their large predominance in certain environments, their action in wastewater purification processes and their association with water borne diseases. microorganisms can only be observed microscopically. some microorganism groups have properties in common with plants whilst others have some animal characteristics. in the past, the classification of living creatures used to be according to the two main kingdoms, plants and animals and the microorganisms were present in each of these two large subdivisions. subsequently, however, biologists have adopted a more practical division, placing microorganisms in the separate kingdoms of the monera (simpler creatures, without a separate nucleus, such as bacteria, cyanobacteria and archaea) and the protists (simple creatures, but with a separate nucleus, such as algae, fungi and protozoa). there are still other possible subdivisions into other kingdoms, but these are not important for the objectives of this book. the basic difference between the monera/protists and the other organisms (plants and animals) is the high level of cellular differentiation found in the plants and animals. this means that, in monera and protist organisms, the cells of a single individual are morphologically and functionally similar, which reduces its adaptation and development capacity. however, in organisms with cellular differentiation, a functional division occurs. in the higher organisms, the differentiated cells (generally of the same type) combine into larger or smaller groups, called tissue. the tissues constitute the organs (e.g. lungs), and these form the systems (e.g. respiratory system). the level of cellular differentiation is therefore an indication of the developmental level of a species. table 7.1 presents the basic characteristics of the kingdoms in the living world, while table 7.2 lists the main characteristics of the various groups that comprise the monera and protist kingdoms. a short description of the main microorganisms of interest in wastewater was presented in table 2.15 (chapter 2). protists have the nucleus of the cell confined by a nuclear membrane (algae, protozoa and fungi), being characterised eukaryotes monera have the nucleus disseminated in the protoplasm (bacteria, cyanobacteria and archaea), being characterised as prokaryotes in general, the eukaryotes present a higher level of internal differentiation and may be unicellular or multicellular. the viruses were not included in the above classification because of their totally specific characteristics. cyanobacteria were previously called blue-green algae. archaea are similar to bacteria in size and basic cell components. however, their cell wall, cell material microbiology and ecology of wastewater treatment 299
What is the 1st cost?
the first cost is the additional abatement cost
What is the second impact of the decision?
the second impact of the decision on participation is due to trade impacts
Which type of participant chooses the Low NC Carbon Price?
a nonparticipant will choose the low nc carbon price
club. participation requires countries to have a domestic carbon price at least as high as the minimum international target carbon price. the choice of climate policies is simple. a nonparticipant will choose the low nc carbon price because that maximizes national welfare for nonparticipants. similarly, a participant will choose the higher international target carbon price to meet its obligations because that maximizes its economic welfare conditional on participation. in considering whether or not to participate in the high-abatement cooperative regime, countries face two sets of costs. the first cost is the additional abatement cost net of reduced damages of participation. the additional abatement costs are greater than the reduced damages. this fact shows immediately why countries will not voluntarily depart from the nc equilibrium without some further inducements to participate. the second impact of the decision on participation is due to trade impacts. the present study analyzes a uniform tariff on all goods and services imposed by participants on the imports from nonparticipants into the climate club. figure 2 shows the basic structure of the tariff arrangements. as shown in the two cells on the left, the club treaty authorizes penalty tariffs on nonparticipants into the club region, with no penalty tariffs on intra-club trade. the two cells on the right indicate that there are no tariffs, which assumes no reaction or retaliation of non-club members to the club.
what does climate justice articulate?
in particular, climate justice articulates a rejection of capitalist solutions to climate change (eg carbon markets) and foregrounds the uneven and persistent patterns of eco-imperalism and "ecological debt" as a result of the historical legacy of uneven use of fossil fuels and exploitation of raw materials, offshoring, and export of waste
where were the principles of climate justice articulated?
climate justice principles were articulated in the klimaforum's declaration during copenhagen and included: leaving fossil fuels in the ground; reasserting peoples' and community control over production; re-localising food production; massively reducing over-consumption, particularly in the global north; respecting indigenous and forest people's rights; and recognising the ecological and climate debt owed to the people's in the global south by the societies of the global north necessitating the making of reparations
o que defendeu a declaraÃ§Ã£o de Cochabamba de 2010?
has argued for a series of "inherent rights of mother earth",8and demanded that developed countries radically reduce and absorb their emissions; assume the costs and technology transfer needs of developing countries and responsibility for climate refugees; eliminate their restrictive immigration policies, offering migrants a decent
briefly defined, climate justice refers to principles of democratic accountability and participation, ecological sustainability and social justice and their combined ability to provide solutions to climate change. such a notion focuses on the interrelationships between, and addresses the roots causes of, the social injustice, ecological destruction and economic domination perpetrated by the underlying logics of pro-growth capitalism. in particular, climate justice articulates a rejection of capitalist solutions to climate change (eg carbon markets) and foregrounds the uneven and persistent patterns of eco-imperalism and "ecological debt" as a result of the historical legacy of uneven use of fossil fuels and exploitation of raw materials, offshoring, and export of waste (see martinez-alier 2002; muradian and martinezalier 2001). it can be understood through a series of demands that have progressively been elaborated since the 2002 bali principles. they are sensitive to relations of unequal global geometries of power and how these intersect with relations of class, race, gender, generation, indigenous rights and socio-nature (not least in terms of responsibilities and capacities for mitigation and adaptation). building on the climate justice now! declarations in 2007 and 2008, climate justice principles were articulated in the klimaforum's declaration during copenhagen and included: leaving fossil fuels in the ground; reasserting peoples' and community control over production; re-localising food production; massively reducing over-consumption, particularly in the global north; respecting indigenous and forest people's rights; and recognising the ecological and climate debt owed to the people's in the global south by the societies of the global north necessitating the making of reparations. in a further elaboration, the cochabamba declaration of 2010 has argued for a series of "inherent rights of mother earth",8and demanded that developed countries radically reduce and absorb their emissions; assume the costs and technology transfer needs of developing countries and responsibility for climate refugees; eliminate their restrictive immigration policies, offering migrants a decent
What do the examples in table 4 illustrate?
the examples in table 4 illustrate how formal institutions developed to respond to climate change and variability helped provide continuity in poverty reduction strategies and food security
What can institutions facilitate in a positive sense?
in their positive sense, institutions can facilitate collective action and enable individuals to transcend the limitations of acting in isolation
What are formal institutions in the villages?
formal institutions in the villages included farming associations, tribal authorities, committee systems for works, water affairs, education and healthcare, civic and political groups, church membership, and women's or youth groups
households perform more than one type of coping response. note: data collected over the 2002-4 agricultural seasons and responses recalled by interviewees for the 10 year period prior to the fieldwork formal institutions in the villages included farming associations, tribal authorities, committee systems for works, water affairs, education and healthcare, civic and political groups, church membership, and women's or youth groups. the examples in table 4 illustrate how formal institutions developed to respond to climate change and variability helped provide continuity in poverty reduction strategies and food security. in their positive sense, institutions can facilitate collective action and enable individuals to transcend the limitations of acting in isolation. in associations that had endured, members had used the bridged networks to enforce the benefits of interacting with other institutional levels, in the way described by 'adaptive governance' (folke et al. 2005) where social networks link multiple institutional scales. reinforcing and expanding social networks through communication at the village-level, with strong
In case the world does not follow the recommendations of the "Review", what will be the scenario?
in this case, the review predicts a substantial loss of output (consumption) for far-off future generations, possibly up to 20% or even up to 35.2
If you do not follow the recommendations of the "Review", what will be the emission reductions in the next decades?
only very modest emission reductions
What is the projection for 2200 generation?
for example, based on the assumptions in the review, even in the worst-case scenario the future generation of 2200 will still be 8 times better off than the present one (rather than 12.3 times better off without climate change
why it matters: a comparison of worst-case scenarios the question is: does it matter? after all, the review came out in favour of immediate and decisive action. i think it does matter because the non-substitutability argument can provide much stronger justification for the review's recommended measures. this becomes clear by looking at worst-case scenarios. assume that the world fails to follow the review's recommendations and that it will achieve only very modest emission reductions over the next decades (not an unrealistic scenario in my view of world politics). in this case, the review predicts a substantial loss of output (consumption) for far-off future generations, possibly up to 20% or even up to 35.2%. however, because of baseline consumption growth the future will also be very much richer than the present and, despite climate change damage, will still be very much better off than the present. for example, based on the assumptions in the review, even in the worst-case scenario the future generation of 2200 will still be 8 times better off than the present one (rather than 12.3 times better off without climate change). 9 within the cba framework of the review allowing such damage to occur is clearly suboptimal and inefficient. but the worst that can happen if the world fails to heed the review's advice is that the distant future is only much, much better off than the present instead of being much, much, much better off. that's too bad, but it is not really a tragedy.4
What the IPCC's fifth assessment characterizes?
the ipcc's fifth assessment report characterizes adaptation barriers (synonymous with adaptation constraints) as "factors that make it harder to plan and implement adaptation actions or that restrict options
How barriers and limits are seen?
whereas barriers are considered surmountable or mutable, limits are seen to be absolute or unsurpassable
How barriers are understood?
barriers are understood as either a reason for adaptive capacity not being translated into action8,13,14, or as one reason for low adaptive capacity15,16
the ipcc's fifth assessment report characterizes adaptation barriers (synonymous with adaptation constraints) as "factors that make it harder to plan and implement adaptation actions or that restrict options".4 only a few studies on barriers to adaptation provide a clear-cut definition beyond the ipcc characterization7. to complicate matters, researchers use the term differently. some scholars use the terms 'limits' and 'barriers' interchangeably8,9, but more often they have different meanings. whereas barriers are considered surmountable or mutable, limits are seen to be absolute or unsurpassable10-12. the concept of barriers has also been defined in relation to adaptive capacity. barriers are understood as either a reason for adaptive capacity not being translated into action8,13,14, or as one reason for low adaptive capacity15,16. moser and ekstrom11 define barriers as obstacles that make adaptation less efficient, less effective or may require changes that lead to missed opportunities or higher costs. they can be overcome, avoided or reduced by individual or collective action with concerted effort, creative management, changed ways of thinking, political will, and reprioritization of resources, land uses and institutions. barriers can arise from three sources: the actor(s) making adaptation-related decisions, the context (for example, social, economic or biophysical) in which the adaptation takes place or the system that is at risk of being affected by climate change (called 'system of concern'). this conceptualization follows a positive (that is, descriptive or explanatory) approach instead of a normative one in which barriers are judged as inherently problematic. eisenack and stecker15 also take a positive approach, and argue for a precise specification of (1) the adaptations to which a barrier
MT and UT, particularly in the tropics; only in the LT there is an increase, fed mainly by ?
higher isoprene emissions (fig. 5
mt and ut, particularly in the tropics; only in the lt is there an increase, mainly fuelled by higher isoprene emissions (fig. 5). in the background atmosphere, ozone lifetime increases strongly with altitude, mainly due to the reduction in temperature and hence water vapour. this means that changes in net ozone production in the ut have a larger influence on global ozone burden. a further reason for the decline in ozone burden is the reduction in the ozone lifetime almost everywhere (fig. 8d; table 1), typically by 5-10% in the nh. even if net chemical production of ozone were to remain constant, a reduction in lifetime would lower concentrations.
Why do Sturtian and Marinoan glacial deposits occur?
sturtian and marinoan glacial deposits occur as part of a characteristic carbonate sequence, which is striking in that carbonates rarely--if ever--occur in association with glacial deposits during the phanerozoic
Why do the dolostones contain giant wave ripples?
the cap dolostones often contain giant wave ripples. these features result from wave action on sediments in near-shore environments, and the physical understanding of the deposition process implies that the timescale of formation is quite short
What do you find right above the Marinoan glacial diamctites?
right above (i.e., chronologically after) the marinoan glacial diamictites, one finds a cap dolostone
sturtian and marinoan glacial deposits occur as part of a characteristic carbonate sequence, which is striking in that carbonates rarely--if ever--occur in association with glacial deposits during the phanerozoic. right above (i.e., chronologically after) the marinoan glacial diamictites, one finds a cap dolostone. dolomite (magnesium carbonate) is believed to be deposited only under conditions of low sulfur availability, which provides a clue as to the state of the ocean. the cap dolostones often contain giant wave ripples. these features result from wave action on sediments in near-shore environments, and the physical understanding of the deposition process implies that the timescale of formation is quite short. thus, the giant wave ripples show that the cap dolostone was precipitated rapidly. other characteristic textures known as peloids also constitute a signature of rapid deposition. above the cap dolostone, one sometimes finds limestone cements containing giant crystal structures known as aragonite fans. these are symptomatic of diffusionlimited crystal growth in situ in a highly supersaturated environment. as the crystals grow, they are buried by sedimentation of limestone from the water column, and this, too, suggests rapid deposition. further up in the sequence, one finds either a thick limestone layer (as in namibia)
What are the categories for diet?
insectivore 3 omnivore 3 herbivore
How many recognized species of Liolaemidae were represented?
87 of the 168
Why did we assume equal branch lengths?
because no single molecular data set was available for all of the taxa
for parsimony reconstructions, each taxon was assigned one of three character states for diet based on categories assigned in data set 1. evolution of diet was reconstructed as an ordered (insectivore 3 omnivore 3 herbivore) three-state character by using parsimony with macclade 4.0 (40). we estimated the number of origins of herbivory in liolaemids as the number of transitions from omnivory or insectivory to herbivory. diet evolution was also analyzed as a continuous character in a likelihood framework by using linear generalized least squares (gls-linear; ref. 41) with compare 4.5 (http:  compare.bio.indiana.edu). we assumed equal branch lengths (1.0) for this analysis because no single molecular data set was available for all of the taxa. we reconstructed the proportion of plant matter in the diet at each node, classified ancestors as herbivores, omnivores, or insectivores based on the categories defined above, and tallied the number of origins of herbivory. our phylogenetic analyses included 87 of the 168 currently recognized species of liolaemidae. to estimate the number of origins of herbivory for virtually all liolaemidae, we obtained data on diet from 162 taxa of liolaemidae (described above; data set 1) and constructed a phylogenetic supertree for these species. although we prefer direct character-based analyses to a supertree approach, the only information available on the placement of many liolaemid taxa is taxonomy. details of supertree construction are described in supporting methods interestingly,
How much was the bewag's work force cut by?
the bewag's workforce was cut by 56
What are the names of the utility companies discussed?
bewag and -- to a minor degree -- gasag have redefined their business priorities and practices: both utility companies
What percentage was GASAG's work force cut by?
that of gasag by more than 70
as a consequence of the liberalization of european energy markets, the institutional setting in the regional energy sector has been altered radically and bewag and -- to a minor degree -- gasag have redefined their business priorities and practices: both utility companies have been encouraged by the new competitive pressures to increase the profitability of their business activities (for details see monstadt and schlippenbach, 2005: 33-44). efficiency potentials were especially envisaged in staff cuts: between 1996 and 2004 the bewag's workforce was cut by 56% and that of gasag by more than 70%. additionally, bewag has begun to reduce dramatically its own regional investments in technical assets, in regionally based r&d facilities and in environmental protection. while bewag invested on average
Which gas other than CO2 is playing an important role in climate change?
methane appears to play an increasing role in on-going anthropogenic climate change, particularly in light of the slowdown of co2 fossil fuel emissions over the past three years
What can be considered as a major reason for increase in methane emissions?
methane emissions from increasing agricultural activities seem to be a major, possibly dominant, cause of the atmospheric growth trends of the past decade
What temperature level is a challenging target?
keeping global warming below 2 deg c is already a challenging target, with most of the attention placed primarily on co2 emissions
methane appears to play an increasing role in on-going anthropogenic climate change, particularly in light of the slowdown of co2 fossil fuel emissions over the past three years fi gure 1 bottom right methane emissions from increasing agricultural activities seem to be a major, possibly dominant, cause of the atmospheric growth trends of the past decade e.g., herrero et al 2016 the rapid increase in methane concentrations offers a growing mitigation opportunity, acknowledging the need to balance food security and environmental protection wollenberg et al 2016 keeping global warming below 2 deg c is already a challenging target, with most of the attention placed primarily on co2 emissions. such a target will become increasingly dif fi cult if reductions in methane emissions are not also addressed strongly and rapidly.
What kind of a compromise increasing frequency or intensity of extreme precipitation events will likely result in?
based on the evidence, there is high confidence that increasing frequency or intensity of extreme precipitation events will compromise recreational waters and sources of drinking water with pathogens, nutrients, and chemical contaminants from agricultural, wildlife, and urban sources
What flooding associated with extreme precipitation events and storm suge can lead to?
there is consistent qualitative evidence that flooding associated with extreme precipitation events and storm surge results in loading of pathogens and nutrients to surface and groundwater (and drinking water distribution systems) through stormwater runoff and sewage overflows
Name the factors that modify risk?
however, other human and social factors modify risk, and there are no national-level studies upon which to draw conclusions regarding quantitative projections of increased exposure
assessment of confidence and likelihood based on evidence based on the evidence, there is high confidence that increasing frequency or intensity of extreme precipitation events will compromise recreational waters and sources of drinking water with pathogens, nutrients, and chemical contaminants from agricultural, wildlife, and urban sources. there is consistent qualitative evidence that flooding associated with extreme precipitation events and storm surge results in loading of pathogens and nutrients to surface and groundwater (and drinking water distribution systems) through stormwater runoff and sewage overflows. however, other human and social factors modify risk, and there are no national-level studies upon which to draw conclusions regarding quantitative projections of increased exposure. thus, the limited number of studies supports a medium confidence level that human exposure risk will increase due to changes in extreme events.
In which city the effect of climate change was observed?
the effects of climate change are already being seen in toronto
What is the estimated amount of flood damage caused in Toronto city?
flooded over 4200 basements and caused damage to property estimated as up to $500 million
What is the average death cases per year in the summer period?
heat waves currently contribute to an average of 120 deaths per year
the effects of climate change are already being seen in toronto. in the last decade, the city has been exposed to extreme heat, floods, drought, new insect pests and new vector-borne diseases (3). in 2005, more than 150mm of rain fell over a three-hour storm in some areas of the city. the storm caused flash flooding, which damaged a major road, flooded over 4200 basements and caused damage to property estimated as up to $500 million (the most expensive storm in toronto's history). the same summer was the hottest on record: 41 days exceeded the maximum temperature of 30oc (4). heat waves currently contribute to an average of 120 deaths per year. the projections for the future include hotter and drier summers (figure 2). it is predicted that heat-related illnesses and deaths in toronto will double by 2050s and treble by 2080s if no adaptive actions are taken (5).
What are some of the issues with the existing data on social indicators of the componenets underlying vulnerability?
in some instances, data are not gathered or stored; in others they are potentially available for analysis, but not in accessible or useful formats (e.g., economic activity data at the community level). much information is not geo-referenced, is not consistent, or involves significant data gaps, and thus is not easily integrated with other data
What is one of the ongoing challenges to developing meaningful vulnerability indices?
conceptual challenges related to developing meaningful vulnerability indices persists (e.g., the importance of social capital is extremely difficult to capture in geo-referenced data), though a growing literature on this topic from a variety of disciplines exists
What weakness is present in the emerging adaptation policy efforts in the U.S.?
hardly any of the emerging adaptation policy efforts emerging across the us draw on this research, and, in fact, proceed without any sophisticated benchmark on vulnerability (which indices could provide) moser, 2009a 
projecting future vulnerabilities requires adequate understanding of current conditions, trends, and causalities. the development and ongoing monitoring of telling social indicators of each of the components underlying vulnerability has lagged much behind this recognition, though important geographic work is available as a foundation (e.g., clark et al., 1998 eriksen kelly, 2007 luers, 2005 o'brien, leichenko, kelkar, venema, aandahl, tompkins, et al., 2004; rygel, o'sullivan, yarnal, 2006; wu, najjar, siewert, 2009; wu, yarnal, fisher, 2002 ). in some instances, data are not gathered or stored; in others they are potentially available for analysis, but not in accessible or useful formats (e.g., economic activity data at the community level). much information is not geo-referenced, is not consistent, or involves significant data gaps, and thus is not easily integrated with other data. conceptual challenges related to developing meaningful vulnerability indices persists (e.g., the importance of social capital is extremely difficult to capture in geo-referenced data), though a growing literature on this topic from a variety of disciplines exists (e.g., bankoff, ferks, hilhorst, 2004; cutter finch, 2008; eriksen kelly, 2007; schmidtlein, deutsch, piegorsch, cutter, 2008 and the above mentioned works). clearly, vulnerability requires integration of both physical, ecological, and social variables, but which are relevant in each case? how does different weighting influence interpretation? how can spatial coverage be improved? how can the indices be usefully linked to planning, prioritization, and decision-making? and what infrastructure is required to ensure monitoring over time given the dynamic nature of vulnerability? even though there is research to draw on, a remarkable disconnect persists between applied climate impacts and adaptation-related research conducted across the country and this more sophisticated geographic understanding of vulnerability. hardly any of the emerging adaptation policy efforts emerging across the us draw on this research, and, in fact, proceed without any sophisticated benchmark on vulnerability (which indices could provide) moser, 2009a ).
What do the significant impacts of past changes in climate on marine and freshwater ecosystems indicate?
that future climate change will impact canadian fisheries
What should emphasis be placed on given present uncertainties about the nature of future climate changes?
management and conservation activities that promote resource sustainability and habitat preservation
the significant impacts of past changes in climate on marine and freshwater ecosystems indicate that future climate change will impact canadian fisheries. fish and other aquatic species are sensitive to environmental conditions and will respond to changes in air and water temperature, precipitation, water circulation, ice cover, and other climaticallycontrolled factors. we can expect to see changes in species distributions, fish growth, the susceptibility of fish to disease, and competitive interactions between species. as a result, sustainable harvests of fish will be impacted across the country. however, isolating the impacts of climate change from other stresses affecting fisheries is difficult. furthermore, even direct associations between such variables as water temperature and fish are often complex in nature. adaptation will be required to reduce the vulnerability of the fisheries sector. climate change can be incorporated into fisheries risk management, even as researchers and stakeholders continue to improve our understanding of aquatic ecosystems and their response to change. given present uncertainties about the nature of future climate changes, emphasis should be placed on management and conservation activities that promote resource sustainability and habitat preservation, and help to ensure a range of healthy sub-populations of fish species over wide areas. improving the accessibility and availability of information through increased research and communication, and enhancing the flexibility and resilience of the sector are also important components of addressing climate change.
What Chapter 2 provides?
chapter 2 provides an initial contextual overview of flood risk, climate change impacts and a range of generic issues associated with flooding vulnerability, risk reduction and hazard response
What is presented in Chapter 3?
chapter 3 then presents a review and analysis of current understandings of the health impacts of flood, drawing predominantly on epidemiological studies
What is examed in Chapter 4?
chapter 4 then examines the available literature on response and adaptation to those health impacts - by households, communities, health and environmental health systems, and external agencies
the remainder of this report consists of four parts. chapter 2 provides an initial contextual overview of flood risk, climate change impacts and a range of generic issues associated with flooding vulnerability, risk reduction and hazard response. chapter 3 then presents a review and analysis of current understandings of the health impacts of flood, drawing predominantly on epidemiological studies. chapter 4 then examines the available literature on response and adaptation to those health impacts - by households, communities, health and environmental health systems, and external agencies. this analysis of process and policy draws on a multi-disciplinary and multi-sectoral body of work. chapter 5 then summarizes the key findings on vulnerability and response to health risks from the foregoing reviews and discusses their implications for adaptation to future flood threats arising from climate change.
Where did the mass changes discussed?
recent mass changes of the greenland and antarctic ice sheets
What is the time period of six years window?
the six-year window for january 2003-december 2008
What is the color code denoted to Greenland and Antarctica?
greenland (red) and antarctica (blue
recent mass changes of the greenland and antarctic ice sheets. a mass anomalies observed by grace (january 2003-september 2012) for greenland (red) and antarctica (blue; arbitrarily vertically shifted for clarity). b racmo2 smb, illustrating interannual variability (note the different scale for antarctica). c estimated trend in the grace time series as function of record length since the start of the observations. for example, at x 6, trends in the six-year window for january 2003-december 2008 are shown for greenland (red) and antarctica (blue). d as in c but for accelerations; for explanation on error bars (95% range), see supplementary information. smb, surface mass balance.
Which areas does this case assume there are enough resources available to finance?
it is also assumed that there are enough resources available worldwide to finance mitigation, proactive adaptation and reactive adaptation, and that the planner can allocate these resources wherever necessary
Can the researchers' model pick up whether mitigation and adaptation expenditures should be financed by the private or public sector?
finally, this model cannot pick up whether mitigation and adaptation expenditures listed here should be financed by the private sector or by the public sector--since no distinction is made between the two
What would be required to disentangle expenditures by the public and private sectors, particularly for adaption expenses?
disentangling the two, particularly for adaptation expenses, would require an explicit representation of the local public goods and externalities associated with some adaptation expenditures
in this benchmark case, full certainty is assumed about the impacts of climate change. a model with uncertainty will be developed in section 3. it is also assumed that there are enough resources available worldwide to finance mitigation, proactive adaptation and reactive adaptation, and that the planner can allocate these resources wherever necessary. national budget constraints and international transfers will be discussed in section 4. finally, this model cannot pick up whether mitigation and adaptation expenditures listed here should be financed by the private sector or by the public sector--since no distinction is made between the two. disentangling the two, particularly for adaptation expenses, would require an explicit representation of the local public goods and externalities associated with some adaptation expenditures. this extension is beyond the scope of the present paper, and is left for future research. with the assumptions made on the mitigation cost and damage functions, there is a unique interior solution to problem (1)-(2). simple algebra yields the following first-order conditions (see appendix 1 for derivation):
What leads to strange effects in the model at the ocean to atmosphere interface?
the increased continentality leads to strange effects in the model at the ocean to atmosphere interface
The mismatch in what between the data and the model indicates that there should be a colder water mass at 2KM?
the mismatch in temperature between the data and the model indicates that there should be a colder water mass at 2km
Which direction will the summer sea-ice edge be moving in?
the summer sea-ice edge to move southward
egu the agreement with the margo sst/sub-surface temperature data deteriorate (cf. p. 1121, line 20, underestimation of sea-ice cover)? we cannot answer quantitatively this particular point. the increased continentality leads to strange effects in the model at the ocean to atmosphere interface, so the model cannot be integrated long enough for the ocean to equilibrate. but we would expect the summer sea-ice edge to move southward and therefore the agreement between model and data to deteriorate, as noted by a. paul. s7 the authors may be right to claim that they "correctly simulated the entrance of north atlantic waters in the nordic seas", but in the data, these atlantic waters appear to penetrate much farther north (p. 1126 and fig. 8b the norwegian current appears to reach as far north as svalbard) as the temperatures are colder in the model north of norway in the nordic seas, no clear gradient can be seen, or at least, less clear than in the data. however, using the zero northward advection of the upper water masses shows that there is indeed northward water transport until svalbard in the model, as seems to be the case in the data. this is now mentioned in the revised version of the manuscript. s8 could the mismatch between model and data in the deep north atlantic ocean also be interpreted as a too small contribution of aabw rather than deep water formed in the nordic seas (p. 1128, lines 23-25)? the mismatch in temperature between the data and the model indicates that there should be a colder water mass at 2km in the deep north atlantic ocean than there is in the current simulation. the dominant water mass there is the one formed south of iceland, which seems to be too warm with respect to the data. the cause is difficult to assess but two options can be stated: either this water mass should be replaced by a colder one (e.g. gnadw or gaabw) or the formation of gnaiw should be slightly different, on a seasonal basis for example. this is modified in the revised version of the manuscript. s894
What was burning used for?
burning was used for a wide range of purposes, including clearing ground for human habitats, facilitating travel, killing pests, hunting, regenerating plant food resources for both humans and livestock, warfare among tribes, and even for stimulating precipitation
Name another indicator of the changes in land use?
another indicator of the changes in land use is the divergence between observed and climate-based predictions of charcoal influx curves after 1800 ce in america (marlon and others 2012 
How did early human populations altered landscape fuel patterns?
as discussed above, early human populations sometimes altered landscape fuel patterns by depressing large herbivore populations, but another common impact was adding additional ignitions
early human populations had relatively few land management tools other than the use of fire. burning was used for a wide range of purposes, including clearing ground for human habitats, facilitating travel, killing pests, hunting, regenerating plant food resources for both humans and livestock, warfare among tribes, and even for stimulating precipitation. contemporary indigenous populations of america, africa and australia still depend on fire as an important land management tool. the massive reduction of native americans by the european invasion (sixteenth to eighteenth centuries), drastically reduced fire ignitions and thus fire activity as indicated by the decrease in charcoal accumulation in soils and lacustrine sediments of the neotropics (carcaillet and others 2002 nevle and bird 2008 ). the magnitude of this change was so strong that the resulting buildup of fuel was depicted by variations in atmospheric co2 concentration and d13c in antarctica ice cores and tropical sponges, and apparently contributed to the approximately 2% global reduction in atmospheric co2 (nevle and bird 2008 ). another indicator of the changes in land use is the divergence between observed and climate-based predictions of charcoal influx curves after 1800 ce in america (marlon and others 2012 ). humans impact fire regimes by affecting fuels, ignitions, and fire season. as discussed above, early human populations sometimes altered landscape fuel patterns by depressing large herbivore populations, but another common impact was adding additional ignitions. this would have had minimal impact on landscapes saturated with natural lightning ignitions, but profound impacts on fire regimes on landscapes where lightning ignitions were limited. for instance, african savannas have a very high lightning density (christian and others 2003 ), and thus human ignitions would likely have played little role in changing natural (climate-driven) fire activity (daniau and others 2013 ). in higher elevation mountainous landscapes in the western usa natural ignitions are plentiful, but are more limiting at lower elevations. when native americans moved into the region at the end of the pleistocene, the increased ignitions caused rapid changes in fire regimes at low elevations both by increasing frequency of fire and also changing the seasonal distribution of fire (pinter and others 2011 ). however, the most striking example of adding ignitions is in the polynesian islands like new zealand. new zealand was one of the last major landmasses settled by humans and previous to their arrival, fires were very rare due to the wet climate. there is evidence of an abrupt increase in charcoal abundance in lake sediments of the south island shortly after the maori settlement in the thirteenth century (mcwethy and others 2010 2013 ). this charcoal increase reflects the of fire in new zealand's ecosystems with catastrophic effects on forest communities that were not adapted to fire. a similar process may have occurred in other climate-independent fire regime
To what non-linear interactions give rise?
non-linear interactions still give rise to iv in rcms
IV in RCMs varies with what?
it has been shown that iv in rcms varies with season, region, and the synoptic situation,87-89as also seen in the studies underling the idps concept
By what the contributions to RCMs' IV can also be studied?
the contributions to rcms' iv can also be studied by predictability experiments with ensembles.48,92-94
the latter issue still divides opinions, but there is now ample evidence that it is not imperative to have the same physics scheme.68,86this is good news, as it enables to run more freely the combinations of global and regional models and thus a richer base for studies. another conceptual issue concerns iv in rcms. the application of boundary conditions strongly constrains it. however, non-linear interactions still give rise to iv in rcms. this can be problematic in some applications. for example, if only relatively short or few model runs are made in a climate change study, iv complicates the analysis of signals in general and extremes in particular. the same is true for sensitivity studies in model development, in which model features are systematically varied. it has been shown that iv in rcms varies with season, region, and the synoptic situation,87-89as also seen in the studies underling the idps concept. when the inflow is weak, the flow that traverses the domain from the inflow to the outflow boundary stays longer in the domain and can thus be affected more by the non-linearity arising. the effect of initial soil moisture conditions might also linger around for a few years.90compared to regional weather forecasting in which initial conditions are an important source of the uncertainty and also to shorter rcm simulations (months to seasons),91in longer rcm simulations lateral boundary conditions are a more marked uncertainty source.5,88the variability that rcms exhibit is a sum of variability generated within the regional domain (the iv) and variability that is imposed via the large-scale conditions. this can be quantified following the example in ref 80, illustrated in figure 6. the contributions to rcms' iv can also be studied by predictability experiments with ensembles.48,92-94in these, aspects of initialization, model parameterizations, domain, and boundary data can be varied. when it comes to climate projections, addressing iv warrants ensembles that sample both rcms and gcms.
What ultimately either do or do not translate into damage to an individual, livelihoods, institutions, a landscape, a country or the planet?
risks ultimately either do, or do not, translate into damage to an individual, livelihoods, institutions, a landscape, a country or the planet
How is our understanding of future risk informed?
our understanding of future risk is still informed by past experience of related impacts
The discussion of what industry addresses the question of how much change we are face with from the climate?
the discussion on the insurance industry addresses the question of how much change we are faced with from the climate
risks ultimately either do, or do not, translate into damage to an individual, livelihoods, institutions, a landscape, a country or the planet. risk is the potential for that damage to occur. the damage may take the form of a wide range of impacts, covered in chapters within this book on how hot, wet and windy it will get. the discussion on the insurance industry addresses the question of how much change we are faced with from the climate and also explores the idea of how vulnerable and exposed different peoples, settlements and buildings have been to such climate hazards in the past, to give an idea of how we may be affected by them in the future. everything is connected in our world, so climate impacts on a landscape will affect, for instance, the insurance industry, which in turn impacts on regional development and the future of buildings and cities in such regions. our understanding of future risk is still informed by past experience of related impacts.
Where current Australian government policies regarding climate change are largely focused on?
current australian government policies regarding climate change are largely focused on mitigation strategies, which have been developed in response to both international pressure and to the potential economic significance of future carbon trading
Why considerable efforts have been put into developing an integrated, but largely voluntary, system of inducements?
considerable efforts have been put into developing an integrated, but largely voluntary, system of inducements to reduce the high level of greenhouse gas emissions from the energy sector in particular
Why a substantial reduction on Australia's part will not appreciably alter the inexorable impact of climate change?
although australia is one of the world's highest producers of greenhouse gases on a per capita basis, it produces only just over 1% of global emissions and 3% of the emissions from industrialized countries (australian greenhouse office 2001). therefore, although controlling emissions is of fundamental importance, even a substantial reduction on australia's part will not appreciably alter the inexorable impact of climate change unless the rest of the industrialized world follows suit
current australian government policies regarding climate change are largely focused on mitigation strategies, which have been developed in response to both international pressure and to the potential economic significance of future carbon trading. considerable efforts have been put into developing an integrated, but largely voluntary, system of inducements to reduce the high level of greenhouse gas emissions from the energy sector in particular. the total contribution of these policies to a long-term reduction in global greenhouse gas concentrations is difficult to ascertain. although australia is one of the world's highest producers of greenhouse gases on a per capita basis, it produces only just over 1% of global emissions and 3% of the emissions from industrialized countries (australian greenhouse office 2001). therefore, although controlling emissions is of fundamental importance, even a substantial reduction on australia's part will not appreciably alter the inexorable impact of climate change unless the rest of the industrialized world follows suit. the scientific reality is that profound impacts of climate change will be felt over the next century in this continent regardless of how effectively australian emissions are modified. identifying and ameliorating these impacts must be given as high a priority as emissions control. further, the range of taxa and communities studied needs to go beyond the current focus on threatened vertebrates to include introduced and aquatic species, invertebrates and a broader range of vegetation types.
Which may be the cost of higher level of government support for municipalities?
municipalities rely on higher levels of government in the public sector for material and knowledge support (county, province, federal government). this support may come at a cost in terms of loss of autonomy and indifference to local circumstances
For what municipalities rely on private sector?
therefore, municipalities rely on the private sector as well, especially consultants and business, for advice and special services
What can we consider a third sector of society able to assist councils?
there is a third sector of society, which is not-for-profit and often made up of volunteers able to assist electedcouncilswithprofessionalexpertise.sociallearningoccursnotonlythrough becoming a latent stakeholder but also by evolving into an expectant stakeholder who stands somewhat in between definitive stakeholders, i.e. those with sectoral responsibility: municipal staff, provincial civil servants, insurance companies who can be expected to take a jurisdictional or legal responsibility in climate change
municipalities rely on higher levels of government in the public sector for material and knowledge support (county, province, federal government). this support may come at a cost in terms of loss of autonomy and indifference to local circumstances. therefore, municipalities rely on the private sector as well, especially consultants and business, for advice and special services. however, the latter are for profit and may substitute their interest to the one of the citizenry. there is a third sector of society, which is not-for-profit and often made up of volunteers able to assist electedcouncilswithprofessionalexpertise.sociallearningoccursnotonlythrough becoming a latent stakeholder but also by evolving into an expectant stakeholder who stands somewhat in between definitive stakeholders, i.e. those with sectoral responsibility: municipal staff, provincial civil servants, insurance companies who can be expected to take a jurisdictional or legal responsibility in climate change
What is vulnerability in regards this study?
vulnerability is a function of a system's exposure to the impacts of climate, its sensitivity to those impacts, and its ability to adapt
What is an important difference betweent sensitivity and vulnerability?
sensitivity does not account for the moderating effect of adaptation strategies, whereas vulnerability can be viewed as the impacts that remain after adaptations have been taken into account
What play important roles in defining the vulnerability of a system or region?
social and economic factors play an important role in defining the vulnerability of a system or region
vulnerability is a function of a system's exposure to the impacts of climate, its sensitivity to those impacts, and its ability to adapt.(18)it is important to distinguish vulnerability from sensitivity, which is defined as "the degree to which a system is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by climate-related stimuli."(14)sensitivity does not account for the moderating effect of adaptation strategies, whereas vulnerability can be viewed as the impacts that remain after adaptations have been taken into account.(13)therefore, although a system may be considered highly sensitive to climate change, it is not necessarily vulnerable. social and economic factors play an important role in defining the vulnerability of a system or region. applying a vulnerability approach to climate change impacts and adaptation research involves five major steps, as outlined in figure 1. in this approach, an understanding of the current state of the system provides an initial assessment of vulnerability that is independent of future changes in climate. this allows researchers to improve their understanding of the entire system and develop more realistic estimates of the feasibility of future adaptation options. consideration of current conditions also encourages the involvement of stakeholders see box 2) and facilitates the implementation of "no-regrets" adaptation strategies. to assess future vulnerabilities, researchers build upon the knowledge achieved through examining current vulnerability by applying projections of future climatic and socio-economic conditions.
What does Niche Mapper predicted?
niche mapper predicted this site as allowing a positive energy balance but with an offspring of 140 g (figure 4a). in central coastal queensland, niche mapper predicted a wider range than was observed in the greater glider, and than predicted by maxent (figure 3b
What Maxent predicted?
in tasmania, maxent predicted a more southerly potential range than did niche mapper (figure 3c
Under which conditions the models predicted range contradictions?
under a uniform 3*c air temperature rise, all models predicted range contractions in the northern part of the range (figure 4, figure s5
niche mapper predicted this site as allowing a positive energy balance but with an offspring of 140 g (figure 4a). in central coastal queensland, niche mapper predicted a wider range than was observed in the greater glider, and than predicted by maxent (figure 3b). in tasmania, maxent predicted a more southerly potential range than did niche mapper (figure 3c). under a uniform 3*c air temperature rise, all models predicted range contractions in the northern part of the range (figure 4, figure s5). while maxent and bioclim predicted a greater contraction than did niche mapper (94.0%, 98.4%, and 76.3% contraction, respectively), the predictions are similar, indicating almost complete loss of the northern subspecies. in all cases, the remaining
How much winter excess in HF hospitalizations is attributable to a winter increment in respiratory disease/
approximately one-fifth of the winter excess in hf hospitalizations is attributable to a winter increment in respiratory disease
What contributes to a smaller part of the winter excess, especially in older men?
myocardial infarction contributes a smaller part of the winter excess, especially in older men
What are the two infections mentioned in the passage above?
these findings argue for extra vigilance in patients with hf in winter and for immunization against influenza and pneumococcal infection
in summary, we have shown that there is a substantial seasonal variation in hf hospitalizations and deaths. the winter peak is particularly marked in the elderly. approximately one-fifth of the winter excess in hf hospitalizations is attributable to a winter increment in respiratory disease. myocardial infarction contributes a smaller part of the winter excess, especially in older men. these findings argue for extra vigilance in patients with hf in winter and for immunization against influenza and pneumococcal infection. a full understanding of the underlying causes of this variation could result in other management strategies with important public health and economic benefits.
Where is gas hydrate commonly found? Answer: In the sediments of the continental marine margins and permafrost areas.
gas hydrate is widespread in the sediments of marine continental margins and permafrost areas
Which elements escape sediment and soil and can exacerbate global warming? Answer: Carbon and methane derived from carbon.
methane and methane-derived carbon that escape from sediments and soils and reach the atmosphere could exacerbate greenhouse warming
Is it conclusive to say that methane derived from hydrate is reaching the atmosphere now? Answer: No.
there is no conclusive proof that hydrate-derived methane is reaching the atmosphere now
gas hydrate, a frozen, naturally-occurring, and highly-concentrated form of methane, sequesters signi fi cant carbon in the global system and is stable only over a range of low-temperature and moderate-pressure conditions. gas hydrate is widespread in the sediments of marine continental margins and permafrost areas, locations where ocean and atmospheric warming may perturb the hydrate stability fi eld and lead to release of the sequestered methane into the overlying sediments and soils. methane and methane-derived carbon that escape from sediments and soils and reach the atmosphere could exacerbate greenhouse warming. the synergy between warming climate and gas hydrate dissociation feeds a popular perception that global warming could drive catastrophic methane releases from the contemporary gas hydrate reservoir. appropriate evaluation of the two sides of the climate-methane hydrate synergy requires assessing direct and indirect observational data related to gas hydrate dissociation phenomena and numerical models that track the interaction of gas hydrates/methane with the ocean and/or atmosphere. methane hydrate is likely undergoing dissociation now on global upper continental slopes and on continental shelves that ring the arctic ocean. many factors -- the depth of the gas hydrates in sediments, strong sediment and water column sinks, and the inability of bubbles emitted at the sea fl oor to deliver methane to the sea-air interface in most cases -- mitigate the impact of gas hydrate dissociation on atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations though. there is no conclusive proof that hydrate-derived methane is reaching the atmosphere now, but more observational data and improved numerical models will better characterize the climate-hydrate synergy in the future.
Where are larger changes observed?
larger changes are observed on average for the ganges. the exact magnitude is dependent on the month
What do most GCMs project in relation to monsoon rainfall and floods?
given that most gcms project both an increasing trend of monsoon rainfall and greater inflows into bangladesh, it follows that the flooding intensity would worsen. on average, models simulate increases in flooded area in the future (over 10 per cent by 2050
What ids projected for the northern sub-regions?
moreover, increases in yearly peak water levels are projected for the northern sub-regions 
larger changes are anticipated by the 2050s compared to the 2030s. larger changes are observed on average for the ganges. the exact magnitude is dependent on the month. given that most gcms project both an increasing trend of monsoon rainfall and greater inflows into bangladesh, it follows that the flooding intensity would worsen. on average, models simulate increases in flooded area in the future (over 10 per cent by 2050). this is primarily located in the central part of the country at the confluence of the ganges and brahmaputra rivers and in the south. moreover, increases in yearly peak water levels are projected for the northern sub-regions and decreases are projected for the southern subregions. not all estimated changes are statistically significant. model experiments demonstrate more changes that are significant by the 2050s. changes are in general less than 0.5m from the baseline. furthermore, across the sub-regions, most gcms show earlier onset of the monsoon and a delay in the recession of flood waters.
Why is it important to understand the processes that lead to species extinctions?
for lessening pressures on biodiversity
How are demographic rates affected?
by the major anthropogenic pressures, changed landscape condition caused by human land use, and climate change
What is the major driver of species decline?
landscape condition is recognized as the major driver of species declines and losses worldwide
*author for correspondence (e-mail: katherine.selwood@monash.edu; tel.: +61399020860 ). #$! understanding the processes that lead to species extinctions is vital for lessening pressures on biodiversity. while species diversity, presence and abundance are most commonly used to measure the effects of human pressures, demographic responses give a more proximal indication of how pressures affect population viability and #"! contribute to extinction risk. we reviewed how demographic rates are affected by the major anthropogenic pressures, changed landscape condition caused by human land use, and climate change. we synthesized the results of 147 empirical studies to compare the relative effect size of climate and landscape condition on birth, death, immigration and emigration rates in plant and animal populations. while changed %$! landscape condition is recognized as the major driver of species declines and losses worldwide, we found that, on average, climate variables had equally strong effects on demographic rates in plant and animal populations. this is significant given that the pressures of climate change will continue to intensify in coming decades. the effects 2
What can reduce the snow albedo?
the presence of soot particles in snow
What absorbs solar radiation?
soot particles
How are soot particles removed from the atmosphere?
by rainout, washout, and dry deposition
the presence of soot particles in snow can reduce the snow albedo and affect snowmelt warren and wiscombe 1980, 1985; hansen and nazarenko 2004; jacobson 2004; flanner et al. 2007]. the 2007 intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) report listed the radiative forcing induced by ''soot on snow'' as one of the important anthropogenic forcings affecting climate change between 1750 and 2005 ipcc 2007]. therefore, quantifying and reducing the albedo errors due to this effect is a priority for improving simulations of climate change and the hydrological cycle using climate models. 1.1. soot in snow soot is produced by incomplete combustion of carbonaceous material, mainly fossil fuels and biomass. black carbon (bc) is the main component of atmospheric soot particles, which typically have a diameter of around 0.1 m m. ''soot'' has been used in different contexts in different studies; in this paper we mean bc when we use the term soot. because of their dark color, soot particles absorb solar radiation, convert it into internal energy, and emit thermalinfrared radiation, therefore warming the air jacobson 2001]. soot particles generally are hydrophobic but can mix internally or externally with other hydrophilic aerosols, such as sulfate. soot particles are removed from the atmosphere within days to weeks by rainout, washout, and dry deposition. optical and electron microscopes show that a typical snow crystal contains thousands of particles, including soot and dust chylek et al. 1987]. it is hypothesized that wet deposition (via snow and rain) is the primary mechanism for transferring soot from the atmosphere into the snowpack. dry deposition also can be significant, accounting for several tens of percent of the total deposition davidson et al. 1985]. the deposition source of soot into the snowpack is countered by the sink of snowmelt. typical mixing ratio values for
What area is the most deadly due to flooding?
the greatest incidence of death due to coastal flooding is seen in the caribbean and central america, and south east asia (bangladesh and india
What gender more likely to die in event of flooding or car related death in the USA?
however, in the usa, most flood deaths are in adult males and nearly all are car-related. in developing countries accurate information on the mortality impact of flood events is limited
What is most hazard death slow-rising floodwaters or fast-rising?
slow-rising floodwaters are generally considered to be less of a hazard, than flash floods
globally, the number of deaths due to flooding is considerable, and the greatest burden on mortality is in asia. mortality statistics are only available for floods defined as catastrophic. although subject to reporting biases over time, and between countries, the em-dat dataset indicates that the number of deaths per event has been declining. the greatest incidence (mortality per capita per year) due to river flooding and landslides are in south america (who regions amr d and amr b). the greatest incidence of death due to coastal flooding is seen in the caribbean and central america, and south east asia (bangladesh and india). population growth and other factors have also increased the population at risk of flooding and so it is extremely difficult to estimate trends over time and vulnerability between countries. the speed of onset of floodwaters is a key factor determining the number of flood-related deaths; few deaths from drowning occur during slow rise floods. there is little robust information on risk factors for drowning and age groups most at risk. however, in the usa, most flood deaths are in adult males and nearly all are car-related. in developing countries accurate information on the mortality impact of flood events is limited. generally, there is very weak evidence about non-drowning (non-immediate) deaths that can be attributed to the flood event. very limited information (robust or otherwise) was available on injuries related to flood disasters. slow-rising floodwaters are generally considered to be less of a hazard, than flash floods. there is some evidence that the burden of injuries due to floods is low in industrialised countries, and in those surveys that do report on injuries, the injuries were all relatively minor.
What does adaptation mean in the context of climate change?
adaptation refers to actions targeted at a specific vulnerable system, in response to actual or expected climate change, with the objective to either limit negative impacts or exploit positive impacts
What does adaptation planning focus on?
the use of information about current and future climate and reviewing the suitability of current and planned management
Can climate change be predicted?
some aspects of climate change such as temperature rise can be predicted with reasonable confidence, whereas others are surrounded by more uncertainties
in the context of climate change, adaptation refers to actions targeted at a specific vulnerable system, in response to actual or expected climate change, with the objective to either limit negative impacts or exploit positive impacts.13adaptation involves dealing a.o. with the predictability of climate change (some aspects of climate change such as temperature rise can be predicted with reasonable confidence, whereas others are surrounded by more uncertainties); non-climatic conditions (it occurs against the background of current and future use of the specific system); timing (proactive or reactive); and time horizon (shortor long-term actions).14,15adaptation planning focuses on the use of information about current and future climate and reviewing the suitability of current and planned management.12
What is causing disaster rick reduction so mainstreamed?
with the hfa, disaster risk reduction is becoming mainstreamed
What does growing evidence suggest regarding disaster risk reduction?
growing evidence exists that national governments are updating pertinent legislation and disaster management structures
What is the main aim of disaster risk reduction?
although the main aim currently is to improve resilience of at-risk communities, rather than concerns over coping with and adapting to climate-change-related extreme events, the concepts and practice of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation substantially overlap, with potential for fruitful convergence
with the hfa, disaster risk reduction is becoming mainstreamed internationally and nationally at policy level. also, bilateral donors and international fi nancial institutions such as the world bank are beginning to take disaster risk reduction seriously with respect to their grant-awarding and lending practices. growing evidence exists that national governments are updating pertinent legislation and disaster management structures. although the main aim currently is to improve resilience of at-risk communities, rather than concerns over coping with and adapting to climate-change-related extreme events, the concepts and practice of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation substantially overlap, with potential for fruitful convergence.168-170 the importance of governance issues and the idea that the eff ects of many natural disasters arising from extreme events are a function of government policies, structures, and decision making in development and emergency management spheres, rather than being technical failures or simple acts of god, are starting to be recognised.130,171
What are the changes of drought
while projected changes in dryness as described by the heat moisture index is comparable among the three interior sample regions 'central rocky mountains,' 'southwest rocky mountains,' and 'mexico,' the predicted growth response is markedly different (fig. 3
Define planned growth?
the average projected growth response to the range of climate change scenarios is far more pronounced in the north and center of the interior douglas-fir range than at the southern fringe and for outlying populations in mexico
Describe Climate change conditions
a breakdown of the projected growth response for each chronology site and climate change scenario by region and elevation class is shown in fig. 4. douglas-fir in mexico showed the least reduction in productivity
while projected changes in dryness as described by the heat moisture index is comparable among the three interior sample regions 'central rocky mountains,' 'southwest rocky mountains,' and 'mexico,' the predicted growth response is markedly different (fig. 3). the average projected growth response to the range of climate change scenarios is far more pronounced in the north and center of the interior douglas-fir range than at the southern fringe and for outlying populations in mexico. a breakdown of the projected growth response for each chronology site and climate change scenario by region and elevation class is shown in fig. 4. douglas-fir in mexico showed the least reduction in productivity.
Does human consumption of meat and dairy products contribute to climate change?
human consumption of meat and dairy products is a major driver of climate change
Are new technologies and changes in livestock production practices enough to curb livestock emissions and limit the rise in global temperatures?
new technologies and changes in livestock production practices offer important means to reduce livestock3 emissions, but on their own cannot deliver the reductions needed to limit the rise in global temperatures to two degrees celsius
Can individual and societal behavioural changes affect the consumption of meat and dairy products?
individual and societal behavioural changes are essential to moderate consumption of meat and dairy products
human consumption of meat and dairy products is a major driver of climate change. greenhouse gas (ghg) emissions associated with their production are estimated to account for over 14.5 per cent of the global total. this is more than the emissions produced from powering all the world's road vehicles, trains, ships and aeroplanes combined.1 it is considerably more than the emissions produced by the world's largest national economy, the united states.2 new technologies and changes in livestock production practices offer important means to reduce livestock3 emissions, but on their own cannot deliver the reductions needed to limit the rise in global temperatures to two degrees celsius. individual and societal behavioural changes are essential to moderate consumption of meat and dairy products. this in turn will require a greater level of public awareness and understanding of the links between diet and climate change, to both enable voluntary lifestyle changes and ensure acceptance of, and responsiveness to, government policies. however, insufficient attention has been devoted to raising public awareness and preparing to shift societal behaviours. to examine the extent and nature of public awareness of this issue, in 2014 chatham house and glasgow university media group commissioned ipsos mori to undertake the first multicountry, multilingual survey specifically to solicit opinions on the relationship between meat/dairy consumption and climate change. this paper begins with an overview of the problem posed by livestock emissions before considering the opportunities and limitations of supply-side and demandside responses. it argues that greater effort should be devoted to moderating consumption of meat and dairy products as a means to reduce ghg emissions. it then summarizes some of the key findings of the survey and considers the implications for closing the 'awareness gap' that characterizes public understanding of the links between climate change and livestock production.
What are the effects of landscape and climate change?
land cover and climate variability effects on floods and low flows are strongly controlled by the flow paths in catchment systems that differ in their time scales and the degree of connectivity. in fractured aquifers, time scales are variable and can vary over centuries (cook, 2003) while soil systems respond much more quickly
Tell me the models that describe the catchment flow?
there are numerous models describing catchment flow, but few of them provide reliable information on the actual flow paths. there exists a good theoretical understanding of potential mechanisms, but for practical applications, knowledge of the mechanisms in any one catchment is needed
Say hydraulic characteristics?
rooting characteristics are important for recharge. for example, eucalypts can mine groundwater, and in the arid climate of arizona, trees can tap water from 18 m below the surface because they have adjusted to a drier climate in former times. mesquite trees in arizona, when abundant, have been observed to redistribute surface soil moisture downward, in essence banking this water for later use and moving it below the reach of more shallow-rooted inter-canopy competitors (hultine et al ., 2004). vegetation change is often a localized change and the change effects are lost at larger scales. the areal fraction of changed land cover is an obvious control in the case of urbanization but not necessarily so with the type of vegetation changes as some species may compensate for changed water availability. also, the connectivity of flow paths within the catchments and the stream network may be a major determinant on how changed forcings translate into hydrological response. different mosaics of land cover types exist and will impact in a complex way on low flows and floods
land cover and climate variability effects on floods and low flows are strongly controlled by the flow paths in catchment systems that differ in their time scales and the degree of connectivity. in fractured aquifers, time scales are variable and can vary over centuries (cook, 2003) while soil systems respond much more quickly. there are numerous models describing catchment flow, but few of them provide reliable information on the actual flow paths. there exists a good theoretical understanding of potential mechanisms, but for practical applications, knowledge of the mechanisms in any one catchment is needed. current forest hydrology seems to be biased towards interception and there seems to exist a lack of information on subsurface flow systems in forests. there are two key issues. the first is: how do land use change and climate variability modify flow pathways and storage? the second related issue is: what are the changes in soil structure due to vegetation changes? some soils tend to preserve properties of the forest for some time after clearing in particular environments (e.g. some australian soils) but in other soil environments (e.g. the amazon) soils tend to change much more quickly. a classification of soils in terms of memory, i.e. the resilience of hydraulic characteristics in coping with change would be of interest. subsurface flow may manipulate decayed roots and the space around roots. in turn, there is an important role of microbes, insects, earthworms, etc. in flow path development and change. rooting characteristics are important for recharge. for example, eucalypts can mine groundwater, and in the arid climate of arizona, trees can tap water from 18 m below the surface because they have adjusted to a drier climate in former times. mesquite trees in arizona, when abundant, have been observed to redistribute surface soil moisture downward, in essence banking this water for later use and moving it below the reach of more shallow-rooted inter-canopy competitors (hultine et al ., 2004). vegetation change is often a localized change and the change effects are lost at larger scales. the areal fraction of changed land cover is an obvious control in the case of urbanization but not necessarily so with the type of vegetation changes as some species may compensate for changed water availability. also, the connectivity of flow paths within the catchments and the stream network may be a major determinant on how changed forcings translate into hydrological response. different mosaics of land cover types exist and will impact in a complex way on low flows and floods.
Qual o assunto que o parÃ¡grafo destaca?
we examine the calibration and validation skill at low and high frequencies via 5-year running means and the residual series of the first two principal components of the observed field and the time series expansion coefficients of the first two heterogeneous maps
Qual a frequÃªncia Vs-lite de ambos os sinais?
the correlation of these lowand high-frequency simulated signals with the corresponding filterings of the observed principal components are reported in table 6 both the low and high frequency signals of vs-lite and pc regression simulations correlate significantly p 0.01
we examine the calibration and validation skill at low and high frequencies via 5-year running means and the residual series of the first two principal components of the observed field and the time series expansion coefficients of the first two heterogeneous maps. the correlation of these lowand high-frequency simulated signals with the corresponding filterings of the observed principal components are reported in table 6 both the low and high frequency signals of vs-lite and pc regression simulations correlate significantly p 0.01) with the corresponding observed time series during the calibration periods. the first two patterns of the mean validation field simulated by vs-lite also correlate significantly p  0 001) with the observations in the low-frequency band, while the first pattern of covariance from the field generated by pc regression does not p 0.09). while the high-frequency band of the time series associated with the first pattern generated by pc regression correlates with the observation at a significance of p 0.4, the first and second vs-lite-generated time series correlate with observation at p 0.07 and p 0.001.
Why was the model  adopted?
a model was adopted to investigate sea level trends and extremes
How was the model trained?
the model was trained from historical data and used to project future water levels at the san francisco golden gate tide gage location
What are the components of the model?
the model consists of four components: predicted astronomical tides, synoptic meteorologically-forced sea level fluctuations (based on local sea-level pressure and regional wind stress), enso-related monthly-to-interannual fluctuations, and long-term sea level rise associated with global warming
a model was adopted to investigate sea level trends and extremes. the model was trained from historical data and used to project future water levels at the san francisco golden gate tide gage location (fig. 1). the model consists of four components: predicted astronomical tides, synoptic meteorologically-forced sea level fluctuations (based on local sea-level pressure and regional wind stress), enso-related monthly-to-interannual fluctuations, and long-term sea level rise associated with global warming. the synoptic and enso components were produced with regression models based on historical data and applied to gcm outputs. the climate-change component was based on the method of vermeer and rahmstorf simulated sea level at the golden gate was constructed by superposing these four components, yielding a time series of hourly sea levels from 1970 through 2099 for each climate scenario. historical observations for 1970-1999 were obtained for the golden gate tide gage from noaa (tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov).
What is the role of international markets according to the text?
international markets will also play a significant role in determining the economic impacts of climate change on the canadian agricultural sector
In which sector does North American agriculture play a significant role?
role in world food production and, since canada is generally expected to fare better than many other countries with respect to the impacts of climate change
What trade agreements can affect Canadian agriculture?
trade agreements, such as nafta and gatt
international markets will also play a significant role in determining the economic impacts of climate change on the canadian agricultural sector. in fact, changes in other countries could have as much influence on canadian agriculture as domestic changes in production.(9)north american agriculture plays a significant role in world food production and, since canada is generally expected to fare better than many other countries with respect to the impacts of climate change, international markets may favour the canadian economy. trade agreements, such as nafta and gatt, are also likely to affect canadian agriculture;(57)however, quantitative studies of these issues are generally lacking.
Is it possible to find some examples of climate related activities for some of the MDGs?
from the above discussion it is obvious that some examples of climate related activities can be found for virtually all of the mdgs
Is electrification of rural school and households the most efficient way to achieve universal primary education?
but the most efficient way to achieve universal primary education is certainly not via electrification of rural school and households
Do climate change related activities always account for the highest potential impact on poverty?
climate change related activities would not usually be considered as having the highest potential impact on poverty
from the above discussion it is obvious that some examples of climate related activities can be found for virtually all of the mdgs. however, a justification of oda financed climate policy requires more than these examples. in fact, doing justice to the mdgs is a matter of setting priorities for those policies that will most efficiently achieve these goals. for instance, when it comes to the objective of universal primary education (goal 2), obviously we can construct an impact chain from electrification of a community, which results in r improved learning, lower drop out rates, and finally in higher enrolment. but the most efficient way to achieve universal primary education is certainly not via electrification of rural school and households. other measures, such as an increased supply of teachers, a reduction of repetition rates or the provision of school meals will be far more effective (see e.g. glewwe and kremer 2006, bourdon, frolich and michaelowa 2006; bernard, simon and vianou 2005). similarly, for all other goals except goal 7, climate change related activities would not usually be considered as having the highest potential impact on poverty.
What makes farming in North-Central Namibia more resilient to climate variability and impacts?
the existing literature on the indigenous land unit system has, then, established its prevalence, utility, rigorousness and widespread application. we add to this another insight: such knowledge makes farming in north-central namibia more resilient to climate variability and impacts, spanning from recurring droughts to recurring floods
What allows farmers to adopt cropping and livestocking strategies to the highly variable climatic conditions?
understanding agro-ecological dynamics allows farmers to adapt cropping and livestocking strategies to the highly variable climatic conditionsthey encounterfrom one rainyseason to the next
'Most farms incorporated a number of land units as opposed to picking one specifically.' Why?
this is because different land units are recognised by farmers to perform well under different growing conditions
the existing literature on the indigenous land unit system has, then, established its prevalence, utility, rigorousness and widespread application. we add to this another insight: such knowledge makes farming in north-central namibia more resilient to climate variability and impacts, spanning from recurring droughts to recurring floods. understanding agro-ecological dynamics allows farmers to adapt cropping and livestocking strategies to the highly variable climatic conditionsthey encounterfrom one rainyseason to the next. hillyer et al. (2006) demonstrate this visually by mapping farms in the village of oshaala, omusati region, onto the landscape. most farms incorporated a number of land units, as opposed to picking one specifically. this is because different land units are recognised by farmers to perform well under different growing conditions. flexibility is, then, key to the resilience of the system. furthermore, the continued presence of settled agriculture in north central namibia, stretching back for perhaps 400 years (cf. williams, 1994 ), suggests that the system has been enduringly resilient. whetheritcanremain sointhefaceoffutureclimatechangeisacore focus of the research (laid out in more detail in section 2.4 ). before addressing this point, we describe the empirical settings in which the research was conducted. 2.2. study area and field sites fieldwork was conducted in 2008 at outapi, the 'capital' of the omusati region, and at omufitugwanauyala and oshikulufitu, two villages within the anamulenge constituency, 20-30 km from outapi. as outapi houses the headquarters of agricultural extension services in the omusati region, interviews with extension staff duly were held there. the brunt of the research occurred in omufitugwanauyala and oshikulufitu. all the fieldsites are located in the oshana landscape of the wider ovambo basin, consisting of a series of southward-flowing, seasonal watercourses that carve gentle undulations across the land, and extending across the omusati region. in the rainy season, pools of water form, known in oshivambo as oshana (hence the landscape's name). along with the fish they provide, oshanas2
What do the current climate change scenarios demand?
the current climate change scenarios demand adaptation to temperature increases, changing amounts of available water, climatic instability and increased frequency of extreme weather events, and rises in sea level and saline intrusion in the coastal zones
What have a proven track record of decreasing susceptibility to individual stresses?
crop germplasm improvement, natural resource management, and inclusion of enhanced agrobiodiversity have a proven track record of decreasing susceptibility to individual stresses
Technical innovations will not be sufficient on their own, so what is needed?
however, technical innovations will not be sufficient on their own. strengthening the adaptive capacities of farmers and other land users requires a variety of strategies ranging from diversification of production systems to improved institutional settings. it is crucial to add value to current investment in agronomic crop management and germplasm improvements by integrating new results and best practices from these fields into adaptation options proposed in the policy domain. there may well be major land use changes, and research will be needed to identify and assess options to support the transitions this will impose on farmers and other actors within the food system
the current climate change scenarios demand adaptation to temperature increases, changing amounts of available water, climatic instability and increased frequency of extreme weather events, and rises in sea level and saline intrusion in the coastal zones. thus future crop farming and food systems will have to be better adapted to a range of abiotic stresses (such as heat or salinity) and biotic stresses (such as pests) to cope with the consequences of a progressively changing climate. in response, the cgiar is working on gene discovery and improving plant tolerance for heat, drought, and submergence. this work should be expanded to consider the basic energy and water efficiency of plants (improving their photosynthetic capacity and reducing evapotranspiration). crop germplasm improvement, natural resource management, and inclusion of enhanced agrobiodiversity have a proven track record of decreasing susceptibility to individual stresses. breeding and marker-assisted selection are important mechanisms for introducing improved characteristics and achieving yield improvements for most crops. defining future targeted farming systems and their environments could allow breeding and management programs to be matched with georeferenced data on crop germplasm collections. this would allow the identification of crops and cultivars best suited to predicted conditions, based on the agro-ecological parameters of their places of origin. improved water-management approaches, with conservation agriculture, are likely to be central to adaptation strategies in both irrigated and dryland agriculture. work on feed plants (for livestock and aquaculture) should be incorporated into this research approach. however, technical innovations will not be sufficient on their own. strengthening the adaptive capacities of farmers and other land users requires a variety of strategies ranging from diversification of production systems to improved institutional settings. it is crucial to add value to current investment in agronomic crop management and germplasm improvements by integrating new results and best practices from these fields into adaptation options proposed in the policy domain. there may well be major land use changes, and research will be needed to identify and assess options to support the transitions this will impose on farmers and other actors within the food system.
what is the different types of adaptation strategies?
a number of different types of adaptation strategies have been identified to reduce vulnerability to climate change see table 1). adaptation includes activities that are taken before impacts are observed (anticipatory), as well as those that occur after impacts have been felt (reactive). adaptation can also be the result of deliberate policy decisions (planned adaptation), or it can occur spontaneously (autonomous adaptation
what are the  effective and cost-efficient adaptive responses?
the most effective and cost-efficient adaptive responses will generally be anticipatory and involve collaborations among different groups. in most cases, the goal of adaptation is to enhance adaptive capacity see 'directions' chapter
what is adaptive capacity?
adaptive capacity is defined as "the ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes), to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences
a number of different types of adaptation strategies have been identified to reduce vulnerability to climate change see table 1). adaptation includes activities that are taken before impacts are observed (anticipatory), as well as those that occur after impacts have been felt (reactive). adaptation can also be the result of deliberate policy decisions (planned adaptation), or it can occur spontaneously (autonomous adaptation). adaptation in unmanaged natural systems will be reactive and autonomous, while managed systems will be able to benefit from anticipatory, planned adaptation strategies. individuals and many different groups, including organizations, industry and all levels of government, will implement adaptation options. the most effective and cost-efficient adaptive responses will generally be anticipatory and involve collaborations among different groups. in most cases, the goal of adaptation is to enhance adaptive capacity see 'directions' chapter). adaptive capacity is defined as "the ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes), to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences."(14)a sector or region with a high adaptive capacity would generally be able to cope with, and perhaps even benefit from, changes in the climate, whereas one with a low adaptive capacity would be more likely to suffer as a result of the same change. in addition to reducing vulnerability to future climate change, enhancing adaptive capacity would also increase our ability to deal with present-day climate variability.
What could be an impact of large scale deforestation in Amazonia?
field observations and numerical studies revealed that large scale deforestation in amazonia could alter the regional climate significantly, projecting a warmer and somewhat drier post-deforestation climate
In what region of Amazonia are changes in land cover expected to be larger?
the results for eastern amazonia, where changes in land cover are expected to be larger
During what season are decreases in evapotranspiration and precipitation expected in Amazonia?
and decrease in evapotranspiration and precipitation, which occurs mainly during the dry season
field observations and numerical studies revealed that large scale deforestation in amazonia could alter the regional climate significantly, projecting a warmer and somewhat drier post-deforestation climate. in this study we employed the cptec-inpe agcm to assess the effects of amazonian deforestation on the regional climate, using simulated land cover maps from a business-as-usual scenario of future deforestation in which the rainforest was gradually replaced by degraded pasture or by soybean cropland. the results for eastern amazonia, where changes in land cover are expected to be larger, show increase in near-surface air temperature, and decrease in evapotranspiration and precipitation, which occurs mainly during the dry season. the relationship between precipitation and deforestation shows an accelerating decrease of rainfall for increasing deforestation for both classes of land use conversions. continued expansion of cropland in amazonia is possible and may have important consequences for the sustainability of the region's remaining natural vegetation. citation: sampaio, g., c. nobre, m. h. costa, p. satyamurty, b. s. soares-filho, and m. cardoso (2007), regional climate change over eastern amazonia caused by pasture and soybean cropland expansion, geophys. res. lett. 34 l17709, doi:10.1029/2007gl030612.
What are the primary results of our analysis ?
the primary results of our analysis are three maps (fig. 1) in which the same rgb colour scheme was used to depict every environmental domain whenever and wherever it occurs
By comparing the maps of current domains with those for modelled future domains , what can one see?
by comparing the maps of current domains with those for modelled future domains, one can see how different emissions scenarios would drive different future biogeographic patterns
What do we see under Scenario A2?
under scenario a2, changes in some cases exceed 5.0 - a displacement in environmental space more than half as great as the current difference between miami fl and barrow ak
the primary results of our analysis are three maps (fig. 1) in which the same rgb colour scheme was used to depict every environmental domain whenever and wherever it occurs. by comparing the maps of current domains with those for modelled future domains, one can see how different emissions scenarios would drive different future biogeographic patterns. the most obvious feature of fig. 1 is the influence of higher temperatures in the american midwest and the appalachian mountains, clearly more pronounced under scenario a2 than under scenario b2. we scaled change over time between the domains at each grid cell against the difference between the current domains at miami fl and barrow ak, set arbitrarily as 10 (fig. 2). on this index, the magnitude of change from current conditions to conditions under scenario b2 is less than 3.75 over most of the study area. under scenario a2, changes in some cases exceed 5.0 - a displacement in environmental space more than half as great as the current difference between miami fl and barrow ak. in order to evaluate the significance of such change for particular ecosystems or species, the specific variables for current and modelled future scenario domains may be compared. as an example, average climatic variables for current and future scenario domains in the us corn belt (us geological survey 1997) are given in table 2.
why global climate change adviced to plant europian plants?
global climate change was projected to influence strongly the future potential suitable distributions of the selected higher european plants
why species move from region to region?
a species with a niche position within regions most exposed to climate change is bound to be more sensitive than a species in a less exposed region. european climate was described by a dominant temperature gradient and a secondary precipitation gradient. knowing the niche position of species on these gradients makes it possible to estimate the potential pressures of climate change, especially for species with aggregated distributions or for those occurring in a single biogeographical region
why species loss their habitation?
conversely, species occurring in cold regions should either disappear because of a loss of suitable habitat, or migrate northwards or up slope towards new potential habitat, if this is geographically available
global climate change was projected to influence strongly the future potential suitable distributions of the selected higher european plants. even if our analysis concerns only a portion of total european plant diversity, we have shown that the response of species to climate change could be informed by geographical and ecological considerations. at the continental scale, exposure to climate change is geographically variable. our analysis illustrates the basic idea that the sensitivity of a given species would depend on its geographical distribution and ecological properties relative to the regional patterns of exposure to climate change. a species with a niche position within regions most exposed to climate change is bound to be more sensitive than a species in a less exposed region. european climate was described by a dominant temperature gradient and a secondary precipitation gradient. knowing the niche position of species on these gradients makes it possible to estimate the potential pressures of climate change, especially for species with aggregated distributions or for those occurring in a single biogeographical region. in a warming context, species occurring preferentially in warm and dry areas should benefit from climate change, conserving their initial habitats and/or expanding to new suitable habitats. conversely, species occurring in cold regions should either disappear because of a loss of suitable habitat, or migrate northwards or up slope towards new potential habitat, if this is geographically available.
What are the oberved trends in dominant mesozooplankton?
the observed trends in dominant mesozooplankton are clearly reflected in the diet of herring figure 5 a). the amount of pseudocalanus sp. in the diet declined continuously throughout the study period, increasing slightly in spring during recent years
when does the herring stomachs was relatively constant from winter to summer?
while the amount of mysids in the herring stomachs was relatively constant from winter to summer, the trend was clearly negative in autumn figure 5 a). similar to herring, the amount of pseudocalanus sp. in the winter and spring diet of sprat decreased in parallel with the copepod abundance figure 5 b). in contrast to herring, the increase of t
what is the sprat condition  in 1980's?
sprat condition was high during the 1980s and significantly lower during the 1990s
the observed trends in dominant mesozooplankton are clearly reflected in the diet of herring figure 5 a). the amount of pseudocalanus sp. in the diet declined continuously throughout the study period, increasing slightly in spring during recent years. the increase in acartia spp., and especially t. longicornis abundance, is clear in the summer diet composition. an additional food source for herring, mainly in winter and autumn, was mysids. while the amount of mysids in the herring stomachs was relatively constant from winter to summer, the trend was clearly negative in autumn figure 5 a). similar to herring, the amount of pseudocalanus sp. in the winter and spring diet of sprat decreased in parallel with the copepod abundance figure 5 b). in contrast to herring, the increase of t. longicornis and acartia spp., as well as cladoceran abundance since the 1990s, is not reflected in the sprat diet composition. rather, negative anomalies in stomach contents of these food items were observed during that period. herring condition declined continuously until the early 1990s and increased slightly since the late 1990s figure 6 ). sprat condition was high during the 1980s and significantly lower during the 1990s (t-test 1977 e 1988 vs. 1989 e 2003: p 0.01). time-trends were similar in all seasons. correlation analyses among the pcs of mesozooplankton time-series and herring as well as sprat condition were
What can be done to tackle disease-related problems?
better modelling of basic climate-health association and a comprehensive assessment of current and future climate-related burdens of disease are needed
Why may alternative qualitative and longitudinal studies will be needed?
some climate-health associations cannot be formally modelled (eg, mental health or infectious disease consequences on population displacement), therefore alternative qualitative and longitudinal studies will be needed
the 61st world health assembly resolution--passed unanimously in may, 2008--lays out fi ve priorities for research and action: extensive documentation of the risks to health and diff erences in vulnerability within and between populations; development of health protection strategies; identifi cation of health co-benefi ts of actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions or to adapt to climate change; development of decision support systems to predict the eff ects of climate change for member states; and estimation of the fi nancial costs of action and inaction. better modelling of basic climate-health association and a comprehensive assessment of current and future climate-related burdens of disease are needed. some climate-health associations cannot be formally modelled (eg, mental health or infectious disease consequences on population displacement), therefore alternative qualitative and longitudinal studies will be needed.97
how is the potential response of species to changes in precipitation defined?
we explored two precipitation response scenarios
What does a fixed bioclimatic niche envelope assume?
the strict response scenario
What does the flexible response scenario express?
the possibility that species may be more likely to be limited by drier than by wetter climatic conditions than they presently experience
we modelled range shifts, range contractions and local population extirpation risk based on projected climate warming, alone, for the three levels of warming, then examined the combined effects of warming and precipitation change for all nine combinations of three levels of warming and three levels of precipitation change. we explored two precipitation response scenarios to bracket the potential response of species to changes in precipitation (fig. 2). the first, the strict response scenario assumes a fixed bioclimatic niche envelope: the future elevational range for each species is projected only at elevations that included temperature and precipitation values experienced by that species within its current range. the second, the flexible response scenario assumes a more optimistic response to changes in precipitation: each future range includes elevations with precipitation greater (but not less) than in the corresponding current range, as long as predicted temperature lies within limits currently experienced by the species. the flexible response scenario expresses the possibility that species may be more likely to be limited by drier than by wetter climatic conditions than they presently experience, within their present range
What are the greenhouse gas emissions originate?
greenhouse gas emissions originate throughout the world, and most countries will eventually need to participate in any solution
Which countries should be held responsible for reducing climate change?
some argue that industrialized countries are obligated to do the most to avoid climate change because their emissions have caused most of the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations to date
Is these both the positions are true?
both of these positions are true, but neither is a realistic basis for designing a policy that sovereign nations will have to ratify and to implement
greenhouse gas emissions originate throughout the world, and most countries will eventually need to participate in any solution. a treaty that makes heavy demands on national sovereignty, or that requires large transfers of wealth from one part of the world to another, is unlikely to be ratified or, if ratified, is likely to be repudiated sooner or later. no international agency can coerce countries to comply with a climate change agreement they find significantly inconsistent with their national interest. unfortunately, much of the debate over the distributional aspects of climate change policy has focused on a different question: which countries should be held responsible for reducing climate change? some argue that industrialized countries are obligated to do the most to avoid climate change because their emissions have caused most of the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations to date. others argue that developing countries account for a large and growing share of emissions and that no climate policy will succeed without significant participation by the developing world. both of these positions are true, but neither is a realistic basis for designing a policy that sovereign nations will have to ratify and to implement. in addition, an international agreement should be explicitly designed to make it easy for governments to address domestic distributional concerns in a flexible
What heppens in detailed cloud models?
in detailed cloud models with a time step on the order of tens of seconds or less and a grid spacing small enough to resolve processes that drive local cooling (e.g., vertical velocity), rapid changes in supersaturation are resolved and hence droplet activation may be explicitly calculated as a function of the aerosol properties and s following
How is the droplet activation rate calculated?
to calculate the droplet activation rate, the maximum value of supersaturation ratio during the time step smax is determined from the resolved prognostic supersaturation
in detailed cloud models with a time step on the order of tens of seconds or less and a grid spacing small enough to resolve processes that drive local cooling (e.g., vertical velocity), rapid changes in supersaturation are resolved and hence droplet activation may be explicitly calculated as a function of the aerosol properties and s following (14). this allows for a rigorous treatment of droplet nucleation needed for detailed simulation of cloud-aerosol interactions. to calculate the droplet activation rate, the maximum value of supersaturation ratio during the time step smax is determined from the resolved prognostic supersaturation [section 2a(1)]. the potential number of activated aerosol n  is calculated using smax for s in (14). the actual activation rate is determined by differencing the concentration of existing droplets (an estimate of the number of aerosols already activated) from n  similar to the methods of stevens et al. (1996), jiang et al. (2001), and others: ncn  max
what is stage one?
late 1990s-2005 'reluctant engagement' it was during the period around the turn of the century that climate change first became a technical issue for accountants
what is the start of EU ETS?
in the run up to the start of the eu ets in 2005 a vigorous debate took place amongst accounting specialists and largely 'behind the scenes' about how to incorporate eu ets carbon credits (termed 'euas') within financial accounts
what is restricted in Europe?
albeit it was restricted to europe, and only of primary relevance to the companies active in the eu ets, which covers 12,000 industrial installations in europe
stage one: late 1990s-2005 'reluctant engagement' it was during the period around the turn of the century that climate change first became a technical issue for accountants. in the run up to the start of the eu ets in 2005 a vigorous debate took place amongst accounting specialists and largely 'behind the scenes' about how to incorporate eu ets carbon credits (termed 'euas') within financial accounts. this debate has been explored elsewhere (see bebbington and larrinaga-gonzalez 2008; cook 16 16 2008; mackenzie 2008) and will not be rehearsed in detail here, but it is significant for our analysis because it was the first notable practical engagement of financial accountants with climate change (albeit it was restricted to europe, and only of primary relevance to the companies active in the eu ets, which covers 12,000 industrial installations in europe), and second, because of how controversial and conflictual the process of reaching an agreement was (and continues to be still, several years later, there is no official guidance on how to account financially for carbon allowances or credits).
Who were randomly assigned to one of three message conditions?
participants were randomly assigned to one of three message conditions
After completing the questionnaires,what does participants read?
after completing the questionnaires, participants read the debriefing form, which outlined the purposes of the study in greater detail and thanked them for their time and participation
Participants were randomly assigned to which one of three message conditions?
participants were randomly assigned to one of three message conditions (i.e., local, global, and control
participants were randomly assigned to one of three message conditions (i.e., local, global, and control). those in the local condition read about a climate change impact relevant to their local area (e.g., vancouver island residents read about rising sea levels). those in the global condition read about a global climate change impact. they then completed the message effectiveness scale, the climate change engagement questionnaire, and the place attachment questionnaire. participants in the control group did not read any message but completed the latter two questionnaires. after completing the questionnaires, participants read the debriefing form, which outlined the purposes of the study in greater detail and thanked them for their time and participation. because participants completed the questionnaires from their homes, the order of task completion could not be monitored. however, to guide participants through the steps of participation, the instructions of participation were clearly listed and printed on a yellow sheet of paper, and all materials were stapled together in the intended order of completion.
Has the study taken into account irrigated crops that suffered from water deficiency?
the assumptions used are based on irrigated crops never suffering from water deficiency
Is a larger amount of water used in informal irrigation than in large-scale irrigation?
the amount of water used for informal irrigation, carried out individually by small-scale farmers, is predicted to be negligible compared to that from formal, large-scale irrigation schemes
How is irrigation demand determined?
irrigation demand is estimated as the difference between monthly rainfall and crop demand
the main outcome of the study is to indicate the relative impact of a range of possible development and climate change scenarios, and view these in relation to the natural variability of the flow regime. various degrees of uncertainty are linked to the assumptions used in the definition of the scenarios and their relative importance is discussed below. the impact on river flow from increased household water consumption due to population the impact on river flow from increased household water consumption due to population increase, including informal irrigation has been simulated as negligible. the assumption used in the study does not consider that a population increase might be linked to increased urbanisation. however, since no values that support such a change in the region were available, the proportions are kept static. the potential for irrigation in the basin is rather limited. the potential for irrigation in the basin is rather limited. increased irrigation is only found to appreciably affect water flow in the downstream parts of the basin if expanded to the maximum potential areas in both angola and namibia. the amount of water used for informal irrigation, carried out individually by small-scale farmers, is predicted to be negligible compared to that from formal, large-scale irrigation schemes. irrigation demand is estimated as the difference between monthly rainfall and crop demand. the assumptions used are based on irrigated crops never suffering from water deficiency. the estimated impact of irrigation should be viewed as the highest possible potential water ion, rather than as an accurate prediction of a possible future. the development costs of the hydropower reservoirs included in the "high impact developthe development costs of the hydropower reservoirs included in the "high impact development" scenario will be extremely high, and it is probably unrealistic to assume that all of the potential locations for reservoirs will be developed in the foreseeable future. in addition, the
What should be more important for managers?
carroll 2005) will undoubtedly become increasingly important for managers in the future (the heinz center 2007
What are the strategies described?
some of the strategies described here will probably prove more useful than others. targeted land protection and efforts to increase landscape permeability will clearly benefit a broad range of species. other activities, such as species translocation and captive propagation, will benefit only a handful of species and may ultimately be unsuccessful at preventing the extinction of individual species, despite our best efforts
Is any strategy is optimal?
the literature discussing these approaches clearly indicates that no one strategy is optimal; each has particular circumstances in which it may be more or less appropriate. there is also considerable opportunity for the development of additional strategies and approaches; we have only begun to think about the management of climate-change effects in a systematic manner
(carroll 2005) will undoubtedly become increasingly important for managers in the future (the heinz center 2007). some of the strategies described here will probably prove more useful than others. targeted land protection and efforts to increase landscape permeability will clearly benefit a broad range of species. other activities, such as species translocation and captive propagation, will benefit only a handful of species and may ultimately be unsuccessful at preventing the extinction of individual species, despite our best efforts. the literature discussing these approaches clearly indicates that no one strategy is optimal; each has particular circumstances in which it may be more or less appropriate. there is also considerable opportunity for the development of additional strategies and approaches; we have only begun to think about the management of climate-change effects in a systematic manner.
Can the dispersion number vary within the same pond over the course of time?
the dispersion number d can vary with time, in the same pond, as a result of the variation of environmental conditions, which affect the hydrodynamics of the pond
Empirical formulas are best used due to what approach being most viable?
in terms of design, a practical approach is needed, leading to the use of the empirical formulas
The von Sperling equation is a simplification of what equation that will practically generate the same values?
the equation of von sperling is essentially a simplification of the yanez equation
it should be highlighted that the dispersion number d can vary with time, in the same pond, as a result of the variation of environmental conditions, which affect the hydrodynamics of the pond. kellner and pires (1998) emphasise the limitations associated to the estimation of the dispersion in the pond, which should always be present in the interpretation of operational results. however, in terms of design, a practical approach is needed, leading to the use of the empirical formulas. equation 13.12 (agunwamba et al, 1992) was reported to give a better fit to the experimental data than equation 13.11 (polprasert and agarwalla, 1994). table 13.8 presents ranges of average values of d obtained using equations 13.12, 13.13 and 13.14. the equations of agunwamba and yanez lead to similar results, for ponds with lengths greater than 100 m. the equation of von sperling is essentially a simplification of the yanez equation, leading to practically the same values. an additional comparison between the four dispersion number estimation methods was done by von sperling (2003). a series of 1000 randomly generated independent sets of physical data was used to compare the values of d resulting from the four methods. in each one of the 1000 groups, the input data varied randomly, covering most of the situations found in practice. the ranges of variation facultative ponds 529
How many primary methods for structural learning exisit?
there are two primary methods for structure learning
What is the first method for structural learning?
the first method is a score-based search that learns the graphs along with probabilities and uses some type of optimization routine to maximize the fit of the model. the most popular algorithm is the k2 algorithm by cooper and herskovitz (1992). numerous other scorebased algorithms exist, see neapolitan (2003
What is the most popular algorithm for a score based search?
the most popular algorithm is the k2 algorithm by cooper and herskovitz (1992
there are two primary methods for structure learning. the first method is a score-based search that learns the graphs along with probabilities and uses some type of optimization routine to maximize the fit of the model. the most popular algorithm is the k2 algorithm by cooper and herskovitz (1992). numerous other scorebased algorithms exist, see neapolitan (2003). the second method, constraint-based learning, breaks the learning process of a graphical model up into two steps. first ci tests are used to learn as much as possible about the structure of the underlying graph. once a graph structure is established the probability parameters are learned in the second step. to discover causal hypotheses we only care about the graph structure, so we can simply stop the learning process after the first step and thus never deal with any probability parameters. both methods have been used successfully for structure learning. we personally prefer the second method because we find its decision-making process more transparent, and we never have to deal with the probabilities. thus in the remainder of this paper we focus on constraint-based learning as method for structure learning. we denote the directed and undirected graphs obtained through structure learning as independence graphs because they represent the (conditional) independence relationships. in the four-mode example discussed in section 4 we are most interested in directed graphs, while for other types of climate applications such as climate networks (e.g., tsonis and roebber 2004; tsonis et al. 2006) we may be more interested in undirected graphs. thus structure learning for both directed and undirected graphs is reviewed here.
What does the lack of a marked decrease in SST gradients with realistic Eocene boundary conditions and full treatment of ocean circulation suggest?
it is unlikely that ocean currents were responsible for wide-spread polar warmth in the eocene
What is the higher p CO2 sufficient to remove?
most sea-ice and generate relatively warm high latitude ssts
What does the model tend to produce?
near-modern gradients, with too-warm tropical ssts and overly cool poles
the higher p co2 used in the simulation is sufficient to remove most sea-ice and generate relatively warm high latitude ssts but it also produces overly warm tropical ssts relative to climate proxies crowley and zachos 2000]. the salinity distribution produced by the simulation suggests that existing proxy interpretations may, however, underestimate tropical ssts and overestimate high latitude ssts by ~ 4*c as suggested by huber and sloan [2000]. the model's tendency to produce near-modern gradients, with too-warm tropical ssts and overly cool poles, when forced with higher-than-modern p co2 is consistent with results of all previous eocene gcm studies with simplified ocean treatment [e.g., sloan and rea 1996]. the lack of a marked decrease in sst gradients with realistic eocene boundary conditions and full treatment of ocean circulation suggests it is unlikely that ocean currents were responsible for wide-spread polar warmth in the eocene. simulated eocene currents do, however, generate some high latitude regional warming, much as they do today.
Which conditions have lead to the mortalities?
arabian gulf--interpretations the mortality patterns can in part be explained by oceanographic conditions
What are the offshore depths near the island?
is the only offshore site and depths greater than 30 m are encountered near the island
Coral assemblages are dominated in which type of area?
coral assemblages are dominated in shallow areas
arabian gulf--interpretations the mortality patterns can in part be explained by oceanographic conditions. the dominant wind direction is from the northwest (purser and evans 1973), making the eastern study area (ras hanjurah to ras al khaimah--study sites al taweela to deira) more exposed to wind and waves (purser and evans 1973; lardner et al. 1993; george and john 2002). this results in deeper mixing of the water column than in the western study area, which is in the lee of the qatar peninsula. the coastal sites are additionally in the lee of the great pearl bank (khor al bazm)--this quasi-lagoonal situation likely increasing the potential for raised sst and heat stress. sir abu nuair, which has the largest acropora population, is the only offshore site and depths greater than 30 m are encountered near the island. therefore, the water column may heat less readily than in the coastal areas, where water depth over the corals is never greater than 10 m (usually around 5-7 m). south africa--observations africa  s southernmost reef-coral assemblages occur in south africa in the maputaland reef complexes off kwazulu/natal province. individual corals occur also in the eastern cape province with the southernmost coral colonies reported near port elizabeth; however, the bulk of hermatypic corals ranges only to cape vidal (28  15 c/ s). coral assemblages are dominated in shallow areas by large alcyonacea and small scleractinia (fig. 7a, b) without any appreciable frame building (corals grow directly on pleistocene aeolianites, fig 2). the only areas where some frame building is observed
What is the influence of technology, according to the article?
although dealt with only briefly here, the influence of technology permeates all aspects of distributive justice because it has the capacity to continually shift the entire cost-benefit landscape
What will make lower GEE emissions in the future?
low greenhouse gas (ghg) futures depend on the emergence of new technologies
the role that policies assign to technology is also revealing of their understandings of 'the problem'. technology is highly relevant for distributive justice in its capacity to alter substitution and change the costs and opportunities inherent in emission reductions mechanisms. although dealt with only briefly here, the influence of technology permeates all aspects of distributive justice because it has the capacity to continually shift the entire cost-benefit landscape. the centrality of technology in mitigation mechanisms is well known. technology drives the economy and the demand for resources. the size of the economy and technological efficiency are the key drivers of emissions projections. low greenhouse gas (ghg) futures depend on the emergence of new technologies. radical ghg reductions through carbon capture and sequestration (ccs) can even be used to reduce ghg concentrations in the atmosphere, and technology can be used to alter the climate itself. technology transfer is also often proposed 'as compensation for abatement efforts' in developing countries (stewart and wiener, 2003, p.15). this use of technology, and this view of climate policy, has distributive justice implications. depending on the development of technologies such as ccs, developing countries could see a dramatic reduction in resource transfers (technology or human development aid) in return for emission credits. the 'problem' in this framework is achieving cost-effective emission reductions, and climate mitigation goals are independent from human development goals. finally, technology is relevant to distributive justice in its power to boost substitutability between human and non-human goods. this means that technology plays a role in the distributive justice aspects of stabilization levels, as discussed earlier, and that policies focusing on technology may share some of the same understandings of the climate problem as those that are counting on high substitutability. in addition, goods that can be protected or substituted through technology are less likely to be impacted through climate change; and therefore access to these technologies will only grow in importance with respect to distributive justice in climate policy. predicting the impacts of technologically oriented policy necessitates paying close attention not only to the application of distribution rules but also to the definitions of climate change embedded in policies.
What three sources of data were the glacier limits drawn from?
glacier limits were drawn from field data, visual observations of aerial photographs, and 1:24,000 topographic maps
What method was applied to calculate the Mucubaji' valley paleoglacier ELA?
the mucubaji' valley paleoglacier ela was calculated by reconstructing the glacier topography and applying the aar method (55
Glacier ARR represents a ratio of which two factors?
if the glacier aar (the ratio of accumulation area to total glacier area) is known, these profiles can be used to determine the ela
the mucubaji' valley paleoglacier ela was calculated by reconstructing the glacier topography and applying the aar method (55). glacier topography was reconstructed by defining the glacial limits, calculating ice thickness along the glacier centerline, and contouring the glacier surface. glacier limits were drawn from field data, visual observations of aerial photographs, and 1:24,000 topographic maps. the glacier centerline was defined by connecting the lowest points in topographic cross-sections of the glacier area. the surface slope along the glacier centerline was reconstructed with a basal shear stress b) of 100 kpa (56). (alternate constructions with b  50 and 150 kpa did not alter the contours significantly.) the surface slope was integrated along the glacier centerline, starting at the glacier terminus, to give the ice elevation. the glacier surface was contoured by connecting reconstructed centerline elevations and bedrock contour lines at the glacier margin. a hypsometric curve of glacier area vs. elevation was developed from the contour plot and used to construct a normalized cumulative area vs. elevation profile. if the glacier aar (the ratio of accumulation area to total glacier area) is known, these profiles can be used to determine the ela. for comparison with the mucubaji' paleo-ela, the ela of modern glaciers in the cordillera de me'rida was determined by constructing cumulative elevation profiles from the maps of ref. 25.
What does Figure 2 describe?
location of the pool of mobile n throughout the annual cycle of a winter deciduous plant
At the beginning of the active part of the annual cycle, is woody storage depleted or reabsorbed?
depleted
When leaves reach autumn, what type of senescence do they undergo?
a synchronous autumnal ontogenic leaf senescence that replenishes the woody pool of mobile nutrients with the resorbed nutrients and returns the unresorbed nutrients to the soil through the production of leaf litter
fig 2. location of the pool of mobile n throughout the annual cycle of a winter deciduous plant. a) during the dormant period, nutrients in woody tissues can be differentiated into a mobile and an immobile pool. b) at the beginning of the active part of the annual cycle, mobile nutrients are mobilized for the synthesis of new tissues, and the woody storage is depleted. c) during the active season, newly absorbed nutrients can be diverted to tissues of the current year and, in species with continuous growth, be allocated to late new tissues. d, e) during leaf senescence, resorbed nutrients are transported to the woody tissues before leaves are shed, and unresorbed nutrients are lost with the leaf litter. in d, species showing drought-senescence may undergo premature partial leaf senescence and shed a fraction of the leaves if the summer drought is sufficiently intense. in e, the leaves reaching the autumn undergo a synchronous autumnal ontogenic leaf senescence that replenishes the woody pool of mobile nutrients with the resorbed nutrients and returns the unresorbed nutrients to the soil through the production of leaf litter. fig 3. fig 3. the effects of a) warming and b) drought on the dynamics of leaf fall in canopies, represented as daily values (g m-2 d-1). in both a) and b), the black line is leaf fall under the current climate. in a), the effects of warming on leaf fall of a species sensitive to warming are represented by the orange line. a line in a) representing a species under strict control of photoperiod would not differ from the black line under current conditions, unless the speed of senescence is slowed by warming that would slightly delay senescence, as represented by the grey line. three different effects of drought are represented in b) drought elicits a premature peak of leaf fall (red and blue lines) that occurs weeks before the autumnal fall (red line) or is delayed and is poorly differentiated from the autumnal fall (blue line), or the premature peak does not occur and there is and advancement of the dates of the autumnal fall
What happens if the development time of a pathogen exceeds the life span of the arthropod vector?
if the development time of the pathogen exceeds the life span of the insect, transmission cannot occur
How can the longevity of arthropod vectors be shortened?
vector longevity is thus very important and can be shortened by elevated temperatures
In addition to climatic factors, what other factors affect the transmission of insect borne diseases?
human activities and behavior are also crucial to determining whether transmission to humans will occur
the ecology, development, behavior, and survival of arthropod vectors and hosts and the transmission dynamics of the diseases they transmit are strongly influenced by climatic factors. temperature (in all seasons), rainfall, and humidity are especially important, but other factors such as wind and the duration of daylight can also be significant. in particular, daily maximum and minimum temperatures affect the pathogen's rate of multiplication within the insect, which in turn affects the rate of salivary gland infection and hence the likelihood of successful transmission to another host. if the development time of the pathogen exceeds the life span of the insect, transmission cannot occur; vector longevity is thus very important and can be shortened by elevated temperatures. it is the complex interplay of all these factors that determines the overall effect of climate on the presence or absence and local prevalence of arthropod-borne diseases. human activities and behavior are also crucial to determining whether transmission to humans will occur. the location of homes in relation to the breeding sites, the structure of buildings, the materials used to build them, and the daily patterns of human behavior--social life, work, rest, and recreation--can all be important.
What factors need to be present for an epidemic to happen?
with a suitable climate, other factors, including a source of infection, a vector, and susceptible human populations would also need to be present for an epidemic to happen
On what factors will future occurrence of dengue depend on?
where and when dengue occurs in the future will therefore depend on diverse economic, social, and environmental factors
In which direction the future social trends will move?
future social trends might move in a favourable direction
with a suitable climate, other factors, including a source of infection, a vector, and susceptible human populations would also need to be present for an epidemic to happen. where and when dengue occurs in the future will therefore depend on diverse economic, social, and environmental factors. although we do not deny the importance of these factors in determining the actual transmission of vector-borne disease, we do not attempt to account for them in our model. the data for the distribution of dengue fever epidemics are of uncertain quality. however, data for presence or absence of dengue fever, though crude, are likely to be more reliable for our purpose than reports of number of cases. because we used dengue fever epidemiology data that covered many years, the effect of human interventions is likely to be small. successful vector eradication campaigns would have biased results towards prediction of the absence of dengue fever. however, because of unfavourable climate conditions, vector control measures are difficult to sustain over time, except in regions where vector survival is precarious. spatial autocorrelation is likely to have increased the apparent significance of the results. however, the main results are likely to be conservative, since when we attempted to model residual spatial autocorrelation by including additional variables in the model, the population at risk increased. furthermore, in this study we are mainly interested in applying the model to predict the effects of an incremental change in humidity at the margins of the present distribution of dengue fever; this prediction should be almost unaffected by spatial autocorrelation. a model that predicts the current distribution with high cross-validation accuracy should continue to perform well when there are incremental changes to humidity as a result of climate change. future social trends might move in a favourable direction, which would reduce the likelihood that disease potential is translated into disease occurrence. however, there are other possible situations that might have negative consequences.1we have not attempted to account for all possible economic and social futures, nor do we claim to be able to predict the distribution of dengue fever at the end of the 21st century. instead we have examined the relations between climate variability and dengue fever, independent of other variables. this is vital information for policy makers who want to understand the potential effects of climate change, and to set priorities for mitigation and adaptation. the resurgence of dengue fever and global climate change are driven by similar issues, which include excessive resource consumption in rich countries, an increase in social inequality, and population increases in poor countries. addressing these issues will help to reduce dengue fever prevalence and global climate change in the future.
What are the options and impacts on the value of livestock?
fig. 6 market scenario options and their impacts on the value of cattle on a) private land and b) communal land across southern botswana (as per scenario assumptions in table 1
What were the empirical findings made in the study?
vulnerability to future droughts. in particular, we highlight the following empirical findings: 1. 1. cattle herds and associated incomes are likely to continue declining in communal lands under most scenarios
What is the reason for this decrease in land?
this is due to the effects of ongoing land degradation and will be exacerbated by climate change and fast rates of land tenure conversion to private ownership
fig. 6 market scenario options and their impacts on the value of cattle on a) private land and b) communal land across southern botswana (as per scenario assumptions in table 1). vulnerability to future droughts. in particular, we highlight the following empirical findings: 1. 1. cattle herds and associated incomes are likely to continue declining in communal lands under most scenarios. this is due to the effects of ongoing land degradation and will be exacerbated by climate change and fast rates of land tenure conversion to private ownership. improvements in rangeland management practices are, as yet, only making small improvements to the income that can be derived from communal herds. one way to view such findings is that further land privatization will help enhance national income but needs to be complemented with support directed at communal area residents. however, when combined with field research from communal rangelands (e.g., reed et al. 2007, sallu et al. 2009), the potential for learning about management practices, e.g., mix of cattle breeds, rotational grazing, controlled burning, and drought feed supplements, offers a route to improving livestock yields from communal lands and enhancing system resilience. adopting bestpractices on communal lands will require
why the occurrence of waterborne diseases will increase?
heavier rainfall events and higher temperatures
who are vulnerable for waterborne diseases?
the very young, the elderly and those with compromised immune systems
where is seven death found for the waterborne diseases outbreak?
walkerton
heavier rainfall events and higher temperatures resulting from climate change may increase the occurrence of waterborne diseases, such as giardiasis and cryptosporidiosis. although such diseases are generally not serious for most of the population, the very young, the elderly and those with compromised immune systems may be vulnerable. heavy rainfall events and flooding can flush bacteria, sewage, fertilizers and other organic wastes into waterways and aquifers see 'water resources' chapter). if not properly treated, such events can lead to the direct contamination of drinking water supplies. recent examples of waterborne disease outbreaks related, at least in part, to climatic conditions include those caused by e. coli in walkerton, ontario (2000); cryptosporidium in collingwood, ontario (1996); and toxoplasma in the greater victoria area, british columbia (1995). in walkerton, expert witnesses testified that the outbreak, which resulted in seven deaths and thousands of illnesses, could be partly attributed to an unusually heavy rainfall event, which followed a period of drought.(25)such trends are receiving growing recognition; researchers have determined that more than 50% of waterborne disease outbreaks in the united states between 1948 and 1994 were preceded by extreme precipitation events.(47)a detailed discussion of the causes and history of infectious diseases associated with contaminated drinking water in canada is provided by krewski et al.(48)
In which area climate risk assessment and management requires something of a change?
bank operations
What is the best option to adapt to climate change?
on the other hand it is highly encouraging to observe the extraordinarily rapid increase in concern for all aspects of the climate change issue, and especially in the past few years for adaptation. it is comforting to be able to feel that one is swimming with the tide and that therefore the prospects for further progress in the direction of better adaptation to climate change are bright
it is difficult to anticipate how widely these ideas can be accepted and how quickly they are likely to be adopted into routine practice. the incorporation of climate risk assessment and management into bank operations requires something of a change, albeit a modest change, in the institutional culture. classically changing the culture of a strong and well established institution like the world bank is considered to be a long drawn out process. on the other hand it is highly encouraging to observe the extraordinarily rapid increase in concern for all aspects of the climate change issue, and especially in the past few years for adaptation. it is comforting to be able to feel that one is swimming with the tide and that therefore the prospects for further progress in the direction of better adaptation to climate change are bright.
Figure 1 shows the correlation coefficients between what?
fig. 1 evolution of pearson's correlation coefficients between phenological time-series and all climatic variables along a complete annual cycle
Quarter Q 11 was added for what purpose?
an extra quarter q 1 1) has been added to improve visualization
The independent graphs at the bottow show what?
correlations between growing season length and 20 quarters (see 'materials and methods') are shown as independent graphs in the bottom of the figure
fig. 1 evolution of pearson's correlation coefficients between phenological time-series and all climatic variables along a complete annual cycle. mean value of correlations for all species available in each event is shown for each quarter from the moment when the phenophase occurs q0) to one year before q 12). an extra quarter q 1 1) has been added to improve visualization. in the left part of the figure, there are graphs for average dates time-series, while in the right for standard deviation time-series. error bars are standard errors. correlations between growing season length and 20 quarters (see 'materials and methods') are shown as independent graphs in the bottom of the figure. see embedded colour legend for correspondence with climate variables.
What are the effects of temperature changes on fisheries ?
as temperatures change, fisheries are likely to gradually be displaced or migratory patterns may become erratic, affecting fish supplies for both human consumption and aquaculture and livestock feeds
What are the effects of rise in coastal sea levels ?
the rise in coastal sea levels could disrupt livelihoods and cause salt water intrusion into agricultural land
Aquaculture requires particular attention to breeding of what ?
aquaculture will require that particular attention be given to the breeding of robust genotypes and the design of sustainable feed resource policies
fisheries are key natural resources ensuring food security for large numbers of people. successful fisheries depend upon coherent marine and freshwater ecosystems, which are at risk of disruption by climate change. as temperatures change, fisheries are likely to gradually be displaced or migratory patterns may become erratic, affecting fish supplies for both human consumption and aquaculture and livestock feeds. there could be long-term effects on coral reefs (which are very susceptible to small changes in temperature). the rise in coastal sea levels could disrupt livelihoods and cause salt water intrusion into agricultural land. like livestock industries, aquaculture competes for feed resources (from aquatic or terrestrial sources). a broad set of tasks, linking research assessment and monitoring of fisheries to the design of adaptive measures and appropriate policies, must be addressed to sustain poor communities through the expected changes. aquaculture will require that particular attention be given to the breeding of robust genotypes and the design of sustainable feed resource policies. these tasks will require cooperative approaches among research providers across the fields of agricultural and climate change science. new collaborative arrangements will need to be implemented, with each organization playing its part according to its comparative advantage.
What is one recommendation the NRC made that are relevant to Federal water agencies for adopting an adaptive management framework?
the nrc (2004) made the following recommendations that are relevant to federal water agencies for adopting an adaptive management framework: post-construction evaluations should be a standard for the adaptive management of projects and systems. congress should provide a new study authority and direction that will increase the ability to monitor and evaluate post-construction changes and periodically adjust operations of existing projects in order to increase overall project benefits. congress should allocate funding and personnel resources to help support and sustain an adaptive management program within the water agencies
Are there legislation or regulatory requirements that could limit adaptation options?
there are also legislative and regulatory requirements that could limit adaptation options. for some congressionally authorized projects, it may be necessary for congress to pass legislation allowing changes in a project's structure, authority, or purpose, including updates to operating plans
Why would benefits be considered negligible in the current Federal planning process?
measures to adapt to climate change may provide benefits only in the distant future, so these future benefits may be considered negligble in the current federal planning process
there are several challenges in evaluating and implementing adaptation options. there is uncertainty about the hydrologic impacts of climate change. resources are limited and there are many competing requests for funding. for example, changes in reservoir operations and allocation can be time consuming and expensive. the process often requires an environmental impact statement (eis), with public participation by stakeholders who have different objectives. there are also legislative and regulatory requirements that could limit adaptation options. for some congressionally authorized projects, it may be necessary for congress to pass legislation allowing changes in a project's structure, authority, or purpose, including updates to operating plans. the federal planning process requires that future benefits be discounted. measures to adapt to climate change may provide benefits only in the distant future, so these future benefits may be considered negligble in the current federal planning process. agencies may also need to adopt a decisionmaking framework that encourages robust solutions that can be updated over time. the nrc (2004) made the following recommendations that are relevant to federal water agencies for adopting an adaptive management framework: post-construction evaluations should be a standard for the adaptive management of projects and systems. congress should provide a new study authority and direction that will increase the ability to monitor and evaluate post-construction changes and periodically adjust operations of existing projects in order to increase overall project benefits. congress should allocate funding and personnel resources to help support and sustain an adaptive management program within the water agencies. * * * the administration and congress should consider revising cost-sharing formulas to promote the application of adaptive management principles. addressing these adaptation challenges is the focus of the next chapter.
why is  the connection between population growth and climate change complex?
the connection between population growth and climate change is complex; because the main cause of climate change lies in the rate of carbon emissions in developed countries, developing countries cannot be blamed for the issue of population growth
what is the main cause of climate change?
the main cause of climate change lies in the rate of carbon emissions in developed countries, developing countries cannot be blamed for the issue of population growth
what are the factors that leading to migration or violence ?
climate change is not the only factor leading to migration or violence but high population densities and growth, inequality, and underdevelopment are also responsible
the connection between population growth and climate change is complex; because the main cause of climate change lies in the rate of carbon emissions in developed countries, developing countries cannot be blamed for the issue of population growth. however, developing countries with rapid population growth might become substantial contributors to climate change. accurate models of the number of environmentally displaced people because of uncertainty of the eff ects of climate change are not feasible. the association between climate change and migration is complex, and environmentally induced migration should be viewed as a consequence of a multicausal system that includes political, social, and economic factors.112 similar to migration, the association between climate change and confl ict is diffi cult to quantify. climate change is not the only factor leading to migration or violence but high population densities and growth, inequality, and underdevelopment are also responsible.113
why should we be aware of the influence of climate to the  plants?
under stressful environmental conditions, only alleviated in particularly favorable years, successful regeneration can be best achieved through a long life span combined with iterated reproduction. moreover, life histories based on high adult survival reduce the susceptibility of populations to demographic bottlenecks arising from environmental stochasticity (morris et al. 2008
What are the benefits of a long and useful life for plataforms ?
moreover, life histories based on high adult survival reduce the susceptibility of populations to demographic bottlenecks arising from environmental stochasticit
what examples do we have of non-sexual spread in unfavorable climatic conditions?
numerous examples--including algae, flowering plants, flatworms, crustaceans, insects, mollusks, fishes, and reptiles--in which clonal forms tend to be prevalent in marginal habitats, "in particular those whose marginal nature is due to abiotic factors
recruitment failure is a common phenomenon in climate relicts. under stressful environmental conditions, only alleviated in particularly favorable years, successful regeneration can be best achieved through a long life span combined with iterated reproduction. moreover, life histories based on high adult survival reduce the susceptibility of populations to demographic bottlenecks arising from environmental stochasticity (morris et al. 2008), while the resulting generation overlap increases the number of potential mates (and thus effective population size). although an extended life span is beneficial for both plants and animals, it confers additional advantages to many plant species. because these species grow more or less continuously throughout their life, a longer life implies a greater size and fecundity, which allows individuals to maximize their reproductive output during the rare opportunities for successful recruitment (petit hampe 2006). in addition, many plants and animals can rely on nonsexual propagation during episodes when sexual reproduction is precluded by environmental conditions (eriksson 2000). kawecki (2008) lists numerous examples--including algae, flowering plants, flatworms, crustaceans, insects, mollusks, fishes, and reptiles--in which clonal forms tend to be prevalent in marginal habitats, "in particular those whose marginal nature is due to abiotic factors" (p. 335). interestingly, most of these asexual forms are polyploid or of hybrid origin, which led kawecki (2008) to argue that polyploidization and hybridization may represent underappreciated catalyzers in terms of the capacity of populations to persist under adverse environmental conditions.
Describe the role of women in decision-making processes?
it is by now widely accepted that failure to include women in decision-making processes around climate change mitigation and adaptation at local, national, regional and international levels not only exacerbates gender inequalities, but also undermines the effectiveness of climate change responses
How obstacles to women's participation are identified?
here is thus an urgent need to clearly identify obstacles to women's participation in decision-making, and find ways to address these constraints through supporting grassroots awareness-raising, confidence-building and advocacy and leadership training programmes
Why Particular attention needs to be given?
particular attention needs to be given to promoting girls' participation, since girls may to be doubly excluded from decision-making processes and fora on account of being both a child/youth and female
it is by now widely accepted that failure to include women in decision-making processes around climate change mitigation and adaptation at local, national, regional and international levels not only exacerbates gender inequalities, but also undermines the effectiveness of climate change responses. there is thus an urgent need to clearly identify obstacles to women's participation in decision-making, and find ways to address these constraints through supporting grassroots awareness-raising, confidence-building and advocacy and leadership training programmes. particular attention needs to be given to promoting girls' participation, since girls may to be doubly excluded from decision-making processes and fora on account of being both a child/youth and female. this is perhaps the single most important step towards achieving more equitable, appropriate climate change policies and programmes.
What is a relatively recent topic in climate research, that has gained a lot of momentum over the last few years?
probabilistic climate projections from multi-model ensembles
What do the PDFs of projected changes attempt to represent?
attempt to represent the uncertainties that are embodied by a spectrum of modelling choices, and by the inherent imperfection of each and every one of them
What did we highlight in SS 3 that we considered to be the main challenges to combining multi-model ensembles?
the choice of metrics and diagnostics of performance, especially as they suggest model reliability for future projections; inter-model dependencies and common biases that should be quantified to avoid 'double counting' and over-optimistic reliance on consensus estimates; and representativeness of the sample of models with regard to common fundamental uncertainties
probabilistic climate projections from multi-model ensembles is a relatively recent topic in climate research, and it has gained a lot of momentum over the last few years. pdfs of projected changes attempt to represent the uncertainties that are embodied by a spectrum of modelling choices, and by the inherent imperfection of each and every one of them. these quantitative representations of the uncertainty are apt at being propagated into impact models (e.g. economic, crop or water resource management models) and can be used to study strategies for decision making under uncertainty. however, the list of open questions and issues associated with the interpretation of multi-model ensembles for climate projections as well as with statistical methodological aspects is still long, and compels us to look at the results of the analyses described in ss 2 as experimental and still lacking robustness, as evident by the significant disagreement among the pdfs produced by the different approaches. in ss 3 we highlighted what we consider the main challenges to combining multi-model ensembles: the choice of metrics and diagnostics of performance, especially as they suggest model reliability for future projections; inter-model dependencies and common biases that should be quantified to avoid 'double counting' and over-optimistic reliance on consensus estimates; and representativeness of the sample of models with regard to common fundamental uncertainties. we think future analyses and better understanding of these ensembles will have to achieve fundamental progress in these areas. looking at the future availability of model output from concerted international efforts, we see new challenges appearing, when some climate models start to include new components of the earth system that are not standard across the larger model population. extensions beyond the traditional aogcm framework of ocean, atmosphere, sea ice and land include, for example, biogeochemical cycles (e.g. carbon and nitrogen cycles), ecosystem models, atmospheric chemistry, extensions of the atmospheric model beyond the troposphere and stratosphere, urban models, embedding rcms into global models, and more. while the latest multi-model ensemble created for the ipcc ar4 was relatively homogeneous in the sense that all models included just the four main components, it is unclear whether this will be the case in future coordinated model efforts. if future sets of models are less uniform and coherent in their structure and in the processes they include or neglect, their interpretation and combination will be more difficult. on the other hand, they will probably sample a wider range of structural uncertainties in that case, and will be reducing the concern about common biases. for the decision-making process, it is important to know whether uncertainty in the evolution of future climate will remain at a similar level or whether it will be reduced substantially in the next decades. this uncertainty depends on the uncertainties in the emission scenarios, caused by uncertainties in social, economical and technical development, as well as uncertainties in climate model projections for a given scenario, caused by our incomplete understanding of the climate system and the ability to describe it in a reasonably efficient computational model. while a probabilistic picture of climate model uncertainty is evolving (as demonstrated by many papers in this issue), emission scenarios so far do not have likelihoods attached to them schneider 2001 ). for these reasons, 2071 review. multi-model ensembles for climate projections
Which statistical framework helps estimate predictive distributions of future climate change?
the ensemble runs are to be converted into probabilistic predictions using a bayesian statistical framework designed for use with complex but imperfect models kennedy o'hagan 2001 goldstein rougier 2004 rougier 2007 ). this framework will allow us to estimate predictive distributions of future climate change, given expert-specified prior distributions for uncertain model parameters
What are the main causes of the structural limitations of MMEs?
mmes also share common structural limitations, potentially arising from a combination of missing processes, shared parametrization errors or limited resolution, so our method of estimating discrepancy should be recognized as providing only a lower bound
How can the results from the ocean, sulphur cycle, terrestrial ecosystem and earth system ensembles contribute to the study?
results from the ocean, sulphur cycle, terrestrial ecosystem and earth system ensembles will allow us to estimate uncertainties in global and regional changes additional to those explained by surface and atmospheric processes, and hence broaden the range of time-scaled transient responses
the ensemble runs are to be converted into probabilistic predictions using a bayesian statistical framework designed for use with complex but imperfect models kennedy o'hagan 2001 goldstein rougier 2004 rougier 2007 ). this framework will allow us to estimate predictive distributions of future climate change, given expert-specified prior distributions for uncertain model parameters. in order to achieve this, a statistical emulator will be used to estimate gcm results in parts of parameter space for which no model simulation is available. the bayesian framework also includes a discrepancy term to represent the additional uncertainty associated with structural modelling errors, defined as differences between the simulated and true climate which cannot be resolved by varying model parameters. the presence of such errors is indicated by the existence of systematic simulation biases across our set of ensemble members. we will estimate discrepancy using results from one of our ppes to predict the results of alternative climate models, developed at different modelling centres and containing structural assumptions and errors partially independent of hadcm3. this will allow us to generate probabilistic estimates which combine information from perturbed physics and multi-model gcm ensembles. however, mmes also share common structural limitations, potentially arising from a combination of missing processes, shared parametrization errors or limited resolution, so our method of estimating discrepancy should be recognized as providing only a lower bound. the bayesian framework will be applied to our equilibrium climate change ensemble, sampling changes at a large number of points in its parameter space using a monte carlo technique, and attaching a weight to each point representing its relative likelihood, estimated from the fit to observations of an emulated set of historical model variables. in order to obtain user-relevant predictions of twenty-first century climate change, we shall employ a timescaling technique to convert the monte carlo sample members into transient response patterns, using a simple globally averaged climate model allied to a pattern scaling technique trained on a subset of equilibrium and transient simulations using common parameter combinations. results from the ocean, sulphur cycle, terrestrial ecosystem and earth system ensembles will allow us to estimate uncertainties in global and regional changes additional to those explained by surface and atmospheric processes, and hence broaden the range of time-scaled transient responses. from these, observationally constrained probabilistic predictions will be derived for regional scales resolved by hadcm3, by integrating over our weighted monte carlo sample of parameter space. for europe, we are also producing a 17-member ppe of the regional climate model configuration of hadcm3, run at 25 km horizontal resolution in order to provide downscaled information required for studies of climate impacts. this ensemble will be used to establish simple statistical relationships between the transient responses of the global and regional versions of the model. by applying these relationships to the time-scaled transient responses described in the previous paragraph, it will become feasible to produce probabilistic predictions at spatial scales resolved by the regional model. we believe that the approach described in this paper will provide a credible basis for the assessment of regional climate risks during the coming century. however, it necessarily involves a number of assumptions and limitations, which have been emphasized throughout the paper. the main assumptions are summarized in table 1 it will be important to assess the robustness of the results
What is the relative substrate concentration?
low s << ks approximately low-order reaction
What can be ignored when the substrate concentration is much lower than the value of Ks?
s can be ignored in the denominator of equation 8.11
What are some situations where the reaction follows first-order kinetics?
the reaction follows first-order kinetics such a situation is typical in domestic sewage treatment, in complete-mix reactors, where the substrate 326 basic principles of wastewater treatment
relative substrate concentration: low s << ks approximately low-order reaction when the substrate concentration is much lower than the value of ks, s can be ignored in the denominator of equation 8.11. consequently, the equation is reduced to: r rmax. s ks (8.13) sincermax andks aretwoconstants,theterm(rmax/ks)isalsoaconstant,and can be substituted by a new constant k. thus, equation 8.13 is reduced to: r k s (8.14) in this situation, the reaction rate is proportional to the substrate concentration. the reaction follows first-order kinetics such a situation is typical in domestic sewage treatment, in complete-mix reactors, where the substrate 326 basic principles of wastewater treatment
Why are the areas of the globe expected to experience some of the earliest and most profound climate induced changes?
the polar regions are the areas of the globe expected to experience some of the earliest and most profound climateinduced changes, largely because of their large cryospheric components that also dominate their hydrological processes and water resources
What is The Regional District of Central Okanagan water management plan?
the regional district of central okanagan in british columbia produced a water management plan in 2004 for a planning area known as the trepanier landscape unit, which explicitly addresses climate scenarios, projected changes in water supply and demand, and adaptation options (cohen et al., 2004; summit environmental consultants, 2004
What does the arctic contain apart from the huge diversity of water resources?
the arctic contains a huge diversity of water resources, including many of the world's largest rivers
burlington and ottawa, ontario, employed both structural and non-structural measures, including directing downspouts to lawns in order to encourage infiltration, and increasing depression and street detention storage (waters et al., 2003). [wgii 14.5.1] * a population increase of over 35% (nearly one million people) since 1970 has increased water use in los angeles by only 7% (california regional assessment group, 2002), due largely to conservation practices. [wgii box 14.3] * the regional district of central okanagan in british columbia produced a water management plan in 2004 for a planning area known as the trepanier landscape unit, which explicitly addresses climate scenarios, projected changes in water supply and demand, and adaptation options (cohen et al., 2004; summit environmental consultants, 2004). [wgii box 3.1, 20.8.2] 5.7.1 context the polar regions are the areas of the globe expected to experience some of the earliest and most profound climateinduced changes, largely because of their large cryospheric components that also dominate their hydrological processes and water resources. most concern about the effect of changing climate on water resources of the polar regions has been expressed for the arctic. for the antarctic, the focus has been on the mass balance of the major ice sheets and their influence on sea level, and to a lesser degree, induced changes in some aquatic systems. the arctic contains a huge diversity of water resources, including many of the world's largest rivers
What is something that climate change can impact ?
impact on physical and ecological systems, such as farming, and its related agro-ecological systems
What is the main physical trend of many parts of Australia?
the main physical trend for many parts of australia, about which there appears consensus, is the emergence of a warmer, often drier climate with enhanced co2 levels, although uncertainty surrounds these trends (jones 2003
What does climate change effect ?
climate change has a number of characteristics that will affect the nature, extent and timing of its agricultural impacts and these characteristics will underpin or be the focus of investigations of climate change by agricultural economists and others
climate change has a number of characteristics that will affect the nature, extent and timing of its agricultural impacts and these characteristics will underpin or be the focus of investigations of climate change by agricultural economists and others. the following sub-sections outline those characteristics and briefly explore their importance. firstly. climate change involves the unfolding of a physical trend that will impact on physical and ecological systems, such as farming, and its related agro-ecological systems. the main physical trend for many parts of australia, about which there appears consensus, is the emergence of a warmer, often drier climate with enhanced co2 levels, although uncertainty surrounds these trends (jones 2003). warmer and drier, with more extreme events the consensus of climate projections for australia, based on pittock (2003a,b) is:
How are the trends of variations of salinity in the Baltic Sea?
in the baltic sea, on the other hand, trends over decades are clearly visible especially in the deep water (cf. discussion in section 4.4
What is the deep-water oxygen content good for indicating?
the deep-water oxygen content is a good indicator of periods of deep-water stagnation in relation to periods with deep-water renewal
How are the variations of salinity in the Kattegat?
fig. 12 we also see that the variations of salinity on a time scale of a few years dominate over long-term variations and trends in the kattegat
fig. 12 we also see that the variations of salinity on a time scale of a few years dominate over long-term variations and trends in the kattegat. in the baltic sea, on the other hand, trends over decades are clearly visible especially in the deep water (cf. discussion in section 4.4). interannual salinity variations in the baltic sea during the 1954 to 1990 period have been discussed in more detail by samuelsson (1996). 4.4. oxygen concentration and deep water inflows the deep-water oxygen content is a good indicator of periods of deep-water stagnation in relation to periods with deep-water renewal. for this reason, time series of oxygen and salinity at 200 m at the hydrographic station by 15 are shown in fig. 13. inflow events with estimated transport exceeding 160 km3
What does the appeal of adaptive management depend on?
the appeal of adaptive management rests on its ability to inform the judgments of managers and policy makers faced with complex problems and high levels of uncertainty
What are the management objectives of adaptive management?
the management objectives of adaptive management, therefore, go beyond simply maximizing utility (environmental or human) relative to a previous baseline under a given management option to also include learning over time about complex and uncertain systems
What does adaptive management recognize?
in contrast, adaptive management recognizes that managed systems present moving targets influenced largely by human drivers
the appeal of adaptive management rests on its ability to inform the judgments of managers and policy makers faced with complex problems and high levels of uncertainty. the management objectives of adaptive management, therefore, go beyond simply maximizing utility (environmental or human) relative to a previous baseline under a given management option to also include learning over time about complex and uncertain systems. while this experimental focus might be especially appealing to scientists, it is not an effort to develop scientific models divorced from real people. in contrast, adaptive management recognizes that managed systems present moving targets influenced largely by human drivers and, therefore, explicitly incorporates human factors into management experiments (holling 1993).
What is unique about the data?
th ese data are unique in providing a reliable, uninterrupted 15-yr period of phenological monitoring
Of What is taxon sampling representative?
taxon sampling is representative of the breadth of seasonal fl owering (e.g., spring ephemeral vs. summer fl owering species
What other species did we include?
we also included nonnative and invasive species (e.g., barbarea vulgaris [brassicaceae], chelidonium majus [papaveraceae], respectively) as well as species such as vaccinium angustifolium which previously have been shown to be phenologically responsive to warming ellwood et al., 2013 and thus more likely to exhibit longterm phenological shift s associated the secular trend of rising mean temperatures
we investigated 20 biennial or perennial species in nine families table 1 ), each of which met four criteria. (1) th e species were represented in historical fi eld observations by hosmer (1878-1903) from concord miller-rushing and primack, 2008 ). th ese data are unique in providing a reliable, uninterrupted 15-yr period of phenological monitoring. (2) th e species had relatively large fl owers, which facilitated rapid and accurate assessment of fl owering from herbarium specimens. (3) th e species were well represented in herbarium collections from massachusetts, including middlesex county (which includes concord) and nearby counties. (4) species with showy, ephemeral fl owers and with relatively short fl owering time, such as orchids (orchidaceae) and irises (iridaceae), were preferred because they were more likely to have been collected near to their fi rst fl owering date robbirt et al., 2011 ). we also included nonnative and invasive species (e.g., barbarea vulgaris [brassicaceae], chelidonium majus [papaveraceae], respectively) as well as species such as vaccinium angustifolium which previously have been shown to be phenologically responsive to warming ellwood et al., 2013 and thus more likely to exhibit longterm phenological shift s associated the secular trend of rising mean temperatures. additionally, taxon sampling is representative of the breadth of seasonal fl owering (e.g., spring ephemeral vs. summer fl owering species).
What is shown on the flow diagram?
flow diagram showing the coupling of the 3 submodels in hadgem3 in the direction atmosphere to sea ice to ocean
What tables 1a-f detail?
the operations and regridding
What happens if the field is  marked "(ncat)"?
they have a third dimension of the number of ice thickness categories (currently 5
fig. 4. flow diagram showing the coupling of the 3 submodels in hadgem3 in the direction atmosphere to sea ice to ocean. tables 1a-f detail the operations and regridding shown in the figure. temporary fields are listed in table 1g and constants used in the coupling are shown in table 1h. all fields are two-dimensional horizontal fields unless marked "(ncat)", in which case they have a third dimension of the number of ice thickness categories (currently 5). gbm stands for grid-box-mean. input and output fields are referenced as xy n where x is (a,n,c) for (atmosphere,nemo,cice), y is (i,o) for (input,output) and n indicates the number of the field. temporary variables used during the coupling are referenced as tn xz where n is the number, x is the model, and z is (t,u,v) according to the grid points on which these fields are found (see table 1g).
What are the main coponents of cilmate that affect amphibian biology directly?
temperature and moisture are the two most prominent components of climate that impact amphibian biology directly
What processes are affected by an amphibians body tempurature?
amphibian body temperatures are determined primarily by heat exchange with air, water, and/or soil or solar heat gain for species that bask in the sun (hutchison dupre, 1992). body temperature, in turn, determines biochemical, cellular and physiological rate processes, including metabolism, respiration, excretion, circulation and digestion
What behaviors does the change in temperatures in spring initiate?
in temperate areas, the increase in air and water temperatures in the spring appear important for initiating certain behaviours, including emergence from hibernation and initiation of reproductive activities, such as male calling
temperature and moisture are the two most prominent components of climate that impact amphibian biology directly. amphibian body temperatures are determined primarily by heat exchange with air, water, and/or soil or solar heat gain for species that bask in the sun (hutchison dupre, 1992). body temperature, in turn, determines biochemical, cellular and physiological rate processes, including metabolism, respiration, excretion, circulation and digestion. most physiological and biochemical rate processes increase by twoto threefold for every 10 deg c increase in body temperature (rome et al ., 1992). gametogenesis and growth rates of larval and postmetamorphic individuals are temperaturedependent (beebee, 1995; carey et al ., 2003b). in temperate areas, the increase in air and water temperatures in the spring appear important for initiating certain behaviours, including emergence from hibernation and initiation of reproductive activities, such as male calling (reading, 1998). lethal temperatures have been measured in a number of amphibians from a variety of habitats (rome et al ., 1992). in general, amphibians that are exposed to wide daily and seasonal temperature fluctuations tolerate a wider range of high and low temperatures than species that experience a narrow range of body temperatures
which one of the big problems of dry weather
fire hazards are significantly increased with hotter dry seasons, which add to the frequency, and the intensity, of bush and forest fires, creating a greater hazard to life, limb and property
what famous fire did we have due to dry weather?
the great fire of london in 1666. 26 every month from november 1665 to september 1666 was dry. by august 1666, the river thames at oxford was reduced to a ' trickle 
what preceded the great london fire?
the drought over these two months is noteworthy because it preceded the great fire of london
fire hazards are significantly increased with hotter dry seasons, which add to the frequency, and the intensity, of bush and forest fires, creating a greater hazard to life, limb and property. such fires occur generally in association with extreme dry periods and strong winds, as was the case with the great fire of london in 1666. 26 every month from november 1665 to september 1666 was dry. by august 1666, the river thames at oxford was reduced to a ' trickle ' the dryness extended to scotland, at least from may to mid-july. the drought over these two months is noteworthy because it preceded the great fire of london, and apparently the east wind, which prevailed during that period, had dried the wooden houses of london until they were like tinder. when the fire started on 12 september, the more free ebooks http://fast-file.blogspot.com
which makes defensible justification?
there is a temptation to focus impacts and adaptation research almost exclusively on economically important, politically vulnerable, or especially climate-sensitive sectors or regions
Give an example for greatest consequences?
for example, thus far, there is hardly any literature on the expected consequences of climate change for small businesses, even though much local economic activity and jobs, potentially significant wage losses, and critical community interactions are bound up in this sector
what could happen in smaller economic sectors?
such as the winter tourism sector, the wine growing sector, organic farming, or fisheries-in terms of contribution to a state's economic growth and indicators, could be crucially important to local or regional vulnerability and response capacity, thus affecting vulnerabilities to other climatic or non-climatic shocks
there is a temptation to focus impacts and adaptation research almost exclusively on economically important, politically vulnerable, or especially climate-sensitive sectors or regions. while these characteristics present defensible justifications to continue doing just that, it is equally defensible to ask, what are we missing? experience demonstrates again and again that the greatest consequences of an extreme event often arise from unexpected interactions, higher-order consequences, overlooked sources of vulnerability, and ignored or unknown constraints on response capacity. for example, thus far, there is hardly any literature on the expected consequences of climate change for small businesses, even though much local economic activity and jobs, potentially significant wage losses, and critical community interactions are bound up in this sector. moreover, what could happen in smaller economic sectors-such as the winter tourism sector, the wine growing sector, organic farming, or fisheries-in terms of contribution to a state's economic growth and indicators, could be crucially important to local or regional vulnerability and response capacity, thus affecting vulnerabilities to other climatic or non-climatic shocks.
What scholarship was awarded?
i would like to thank nerc for the support of a postdoctoral fellowship and brian hoskins, mike blackburn, rowan sutton, len shaffrey, helen johnson and chris bell for many useful discussions
Why is the person grateful to two anonymous reviewers?
i am grateful to two anonymous reviewers for helpful and constructive comments. i acknowledge the european centre for medium-range weather forecasting for providing the era-40 reanalysis data, and the modelling groups, the program for climate model diagnosis and intercomparison (pcmdi) and the wcrp's working group on coupled modelling (wgcm) for their roles in making available the wcrp cmip3 multi-model dataset
Which company provided support for this dataset?
support of this dataset is provided by the office of science, us department of energy
i would like to thank nerc for the support of a postdoctoral fellowship and brian hoskins, mike blackburn, rowan sutton, len shaffrey, helen johnson and chris bell for many useful discussions. i am grateful to two anonymous reviewers for helpful and constructive comments. i acknowledge the european centre for medium-range weather forecasting for providing the era-40 reanalysis data, and the modelling groups, the program for climate model diagnosis and intercomparison (pcmdi) and the wcrp's working group on coupled modelling (wgcm) for their roles in making available the wcrp cmip3 multi-model dataset. support of this dataset is provided by the office of science, us department of energy.
What do the findings in this work suggest?
our findings are inline with research in judgment and decision making, which suggests that heuristics play a role in the formation of people's judgments of risk
What do the availability heuristic and affect heuristic predict?
specifically, the availability heuristic predicts that people judge the seriousness of climate change by the ease with which perceived changes in salient weather come to mind. the affect heuristic predicts that concerns about climate change will be stronger if the concept triggers negative affective experiences with, for example, extreme weatherrelated events that are perceived to have resulted from climate change
Are both heuristics totally unlinked?
even if perceptions and experiences make independent contributions to climate change beliefs, the two heuristics may not be so easily disentangled. perceptions and experiences of extreme weather may both be more "available" from memory if they are associated with stronger negative affect
our findings are inline with research in judgment and decision making, which suggests that heuristics play a role in the formation of people's judgments of risk. specifically, the availability heuristic predicts that people judge the seriousness of climate change by the ease with which perceived changes in salient weather come to mind. the affect heuristic predicts that concerns about climate change will be stronger if the concept triggers negative affective experiences with, for example, extreme weatherrelated events that are perceived to have resulted from climate change. our findings suggest that both (presumably "available") weather perceptions and (presumably negative "affective") experiences with extreme weather independently contribute to climate change beliefs. even if perceptions and experiences make independent contributions to climate change beliefs, the two heuristics may not be so easily disentangled. perceptions and experiences of extreme weather may both be more "available" from memory if they are associated with stronger negative affect. a similar argument has been made about the relationship between flood experience and flood risk perception (which holds after controlling for actual flood risk), which may be due to a combination of salient memories and strong negative affect.(52)
What did Egan internal documents leak to the National Environmental Tmst and the New Erk Times?
egan internal documents leaked to the national environmental tmst and the new erk times (national environmental trust, 1998)' the api expressed concern that the us media conveyed an impression of emerging scientific consensus 'while industry and its partners ceded the science and fought on the economic issues
What did the document argue that the stance was miscalculated?
the document argued that this stance was miscalculated because a successful campaign to challenge the science 'puts the united states in a stronger moral position and frees its negotiators from the need to make concessions as a defense against perceived selfish economic concerns
What did an auto industry public relations executive point out?
an auto industry public relations executive made a similar point: 'once you concede the science, all that is left is to argue the extent of liability and the timetable for emission reductions. it's a lost cause
egan internal documents leaked to the national environmental tmst and the new erk times (national environmental trust, 1998)' the api expressed concern that the us media conveyed an impression of emerging scientific consensus 'while industry and its partners ceded the science and fought on the economic issues'. the document argued that this stance was miscalculated because a successful campaign to challenge the science 'puts the united states in a stronger moral position and frees its negotiators from the need to make concessions as a defense against perceived selfish economic concerns'. an auto industry public relations executive made a similar point: 'once you concede the science, all that is left is to argue the extent of liability and the timetable for emission reductions. it's a lost cause.' it was, indeed, a lost cause, and by late 1997 the business press in the usa and europe was conveying the impression of scientific consensus (raeburn, 1997; stipp, 1997;
how was the mortality rate after the cyclone and the 1991 flood in Bangladesh?
the death rate was almost five times as high for women as for men
how were the alert information transmitted and what were the consequences?
warning information was transmitted by men to men in public spaces, but rarely communicated to the rest of the family and, as many women are not allowed to leave the house without a male relative, they perished waiting for their relatives to return home and take them to a safe place
which places were not affected by hurricane mitch and why?
in la masica, honduras, there were no reported fatalities after hurricane mitch because a disaster agency had provided gender-sensitive training and involved women and men equally in hazard management activities, and women took over control of the early warning system. this led to a quick evacuation when the hurricane struck
following the cyclone and flood of 1991 in bangladesh the death rate was almost five times as high for women as for men. warning information was transmitted by men to men in public spaces, but rarely communicated to the rest of the family and, as many women are not allowed to leave the house without a male relative, they perished waiting for their relatives to return home and take them to a safe place. moreover, as in many other asian countries, most bengali women have never learned to swim, which significantly reduces their survival chances in the case of flooding. (rohr 2005) boys and men also experience particular gendered vulnerabilities in disasters. hurricane mitch, which hit honduras in 1998, has been cited as encouraging 'heroic' actions from boys and men, putting themselves at risk. more research is therefore needed in order to identify the extent to which gendered social constraints or expectations have led to greater risk, and to map out possible areas for interventions to mitigate the impacts of future disasters. research is also needed to highlight the effective mitigation strategies that are already in place, which can provide models of best practice for communities in disaster-prone areas. for example, in la masica, honduras, there were no reported fatalities after hurricane mitch because a disaster agency had provided gender-sensitive training and involved women and men equally in hazard management activities, and women took over control of the early warning system. this led to a quick evacuation when the hurricane struck (iucn, n.d.). the above example demonstrates how a gender-sensitive strategy was the key to an effective response that saved the lives of both men and women.
What can each elevation zone be further divided into?
different vegetation zones
What is the model input requirements for the HBV model?
daily rainfall, temperature, estimates of potential evapotranspiration, and catchment characteristics of the area
What can be made for each subbasin?
calibration as well as forecast
[sp+sm+uz+lz+lakes] (4) where, p precipitation e evapotranspiration q runoff sp snow pack sm soil moisture uz upper groundwater zone lz lower groundwater zone lakes lake volume the model consists of subroutines for snow accumulation and melt, a soil accounting procedure, routines for runoff generation and a simple routing procedure. it is possible to run the model separately for several subbasins and then add the contributions from the entire subbasin. calibration as well as forecast can be made for each subbasin. for the basins of considerable elevation range a subdivision into elevation zones can be made. each elevation zone can be further divided into different vegetation zones. schematic structure of the model structure and its routines are presented in section 3.3.2. 4.3.2. model input the model input requirements for the hbv model are daily rainfall, temperature, estimates of the model input requirements for the hbv model are daily rainfall, temperature, estimates of potential evapotranspiration, and catchment characteristics of the area.
How many methodologies for combining mutlimodel predicitions are used?
two different methodologies for combining multimodel predictions are used
In which are they differed in?
differing in their specification of weights
What does ensemble mean in SME?
in this method ensemble means from the different agcms are weighted equally to construct multimodel ensemble predictions
in this section, the techniques for constructing multimodel predictions are described. two different methodologies for combining multimodel predictions are used, differing in their specification of weights. in the first technique, ensembles from the different agcms are given equal weights. in the second technique, ensembles from different agcms are weighted according to the weights obtained using multiple linear regression. in this paper, the predictions based on the former method are referred to as ''simple multimodel ensemble (sme),'' and the predictions based on the latter technique as ''optimal multimodel ensemble (ome).'' these are described next. 3.1. simple multimodel ensemble (sme) predictions in this method ensemble means from the different agcms are weighted equally to construct multimodel ensemble predictions. the concept of this method is borrowed from the ensemble predictions based on a single model, where different members within the ensemble are agcm integrations from different initial conditions, and are weighted equally to construct an ensemble mean as the prediction. denoting fi( s n as the ensemble mean for the ith
Describe Martian history?
if the n(300) relative ages (based on superimposed crater counts) are correct and the conversion to h-n ages is appropriate, then the ''absolute'' ages of most of the largest basins lie in a very narrow time interval in martian history, between 4.1 and 4.2 ga. see the companion paper by frey [2008] for details
poisson uncertainty is given by (n(x)/basin area)1/2. cras show a strong clustering between n(300)  2.5 and 4.0, implying a 'peak' in crater production if the cras actually reflect formation age. '  ' represents a minimum age because not all subsequently formed craters may be visible. cras can be converted to model ''absolute ages'' by extrapolating the major stratigraphic boundaries from tanaka 's [1986] small diameter counts using a  2 power law and applying the hartmann and neukum [2001] (hereinafter referred to as h-n) cratering chronology model ages for these boundaries. if the n(300) relative ages (based on superimposed crater counts) are correct and the conversion to h-n ages is appropriate, then the ''absolute'' ages of most of the largest basins lie in a very narrow time interval in martian history, between 4.1 and 4.2 ga. see the companion paper by frey [2008] for details.
where was the author an employee?
the author was a gfdl employee
where did the first versions of this book come from?
early versions of this book grew from various notes and publications written over many years to document the modular ocean model from the geophysical fluid dynamics laboratory
is this book a copy of an article already written?
however, no sentences in this book are taken verbatim from published papers
early versions of this book grew from various notes and publications written over many years to document the modular ocean model from the geophysical fluid dynamics laboratory. hence, elements of this book originate from scientific papers published while the author was a gfdl employee. reference to these papers is provided at the appropriate place in the text. however, no sentences in this book are taken verbatim from published papers. the material has been extensively reworked, refined, and digested to enhance pedagogical value well beyond that appropriate for technical papers or reports. additionally, the bulk of this book's writing occupied personal time, and was not part of any official assigned government duty.
Elaborate Corporate political strategy?
corporate political strategy can be understood as part of the process of conflict and accommodation between business and social groups within particular issue arenas. gramsci's theoretical approach to understanding the process of social contestation can be extended to encompass multiple social actors competing for influence over the rules, institutions, norms, and policies that structure markets and economic relations. the neo-gramscian framework provides a perspective that is theoretically grounded, reflects material, discursive, and organizational dimensions of power, and points to the importance of strategy in effecting change within complex social systems
Explain neo-Gramscian perspective draw?
by viewing corporate political strategy as the struggle to build or defend a hegemonic position in a specific field of actors, the framework provides an integrative approach that overcomes the dichotomy between market and non-market strateges. the neo-gramscian perspective draws insights from other theoretical approaches, but offers a particular contribution to institutional theory by presenting a framework which addresses some of the tensions of the agency-structure relationship, provides a concept of ideology that avoids problems of elitism and essentialism, and incorporates dynamics endogenously moreover, the neo-gramscian framework presents a strategic notion of power which suggests how actors can gain at least partial comprehension of and influence over complex social and political systems
What are the steps taken by fossil fuel industry?
the framework illuminates a number of aspects of the case study on climate change which are not well explained by other approaches. efforts by the fossil fuel industry to preserve its hegemonic position, in terms of market dominance, autonomy, and policy influence, can be understood in terms of a 'war of position' in which actors coordinate sources of power and build alliances. in particular, the neo-gramscian approach points to the crucial role of civil society, the significance
corporate political strategy can be understood as part of the process of conflict and accommodation between business and social groups within particular issue arenas. gramsci's theoretical approach to understanding the process of social contestation can be extended to encompass multiple social actors competing for influence over the rules, institutions, norms, and policies that structure markets and economic relations. the neo-gramscian framework provides a perspective that is theoretically grounded, reflects material, discursive, and organizational dimensions of power, and points to the importance of strategy in effecting change within complex social systems. by viewing corporate political strategy as the struggle to build or defend a hegemonic position in a specific field of actors, the framework provides an integrative approach that overcomes the dichotomy between market and non-market strateges. the neo-gramscian perspective draws insights from other theoretical approaches, but offers a particular contribution to institutional theory by presenting a framework which addresses some of the tensions of the agency-structure relationship, provides a concept of ideology that avoids problems of elitism and essentialism, and incorporates dynamics endogenously moreover, the neo-gramscian framework presents a strategic notion of power which suggests how actors can gain at least partial comprehension of and influence over complex social and political systems. the framework illuminates a number of aspects of the case study on climate change which are not well explained by other approaches. efforts by the fossil fuel industry to preserve its hegemonic position, in terms of market dominance, autonomy, and policy influence, can be understood in terms of a 'war of position' in which actors coordinate sources of power and build alliances. in particular, the neo-gramscian approach points to the crucial role of civil society, the significance
How are cyclone tracks generated?
we generate cyclone tracks in the meteorological reanalyses by locating and following sea-level pressure minima following the algorithm of bauer and del genio (2006
Who are the developers of this algorithm?
following the algorithm of bauer and del genio (2006), which is an upgraded version of the scheme by chandler and jonas (1999
How long are the time steps in the algorithm?
for each 6-h time step the algorithm searches for sea-level pressure minima extending 720 km or more in radius
we generate cyclone tracks in the meteorological reanalyses by locating and following sea-level pressure minima following the algorithm of bauer and del genio (2006), which is an upgraded version of the scheme by chandler and jonas (1999). for each 6-h time step the algorithm searches for sea-level pressure minima extending 720 km or more in radius. the low-pressure center is tracked through time by assuming that the strongest sea-level pressure minimum in the next 6-h time step within 720 km is the same system. in order to remove spurious minima, the system must be tracked for at least 24 hours and have a central pressure no higher than 1020 hpa.
What did Deschenes Moretti highlight?
desch^enes moretti (2009) highlight the importance of this concept by demonstrating that many deaths that occur during hot days in the united states would have likely occurred within the subsequent two months even in the absence of a hot day; they thus conclude that an effect of a heat wave will influence the timing of deaths within a relatively narrow window, in addition to creating some entirely new deaths figure 7 a 
What is a challenge to identifying the lagged effects?
a challenge to identifying these lagged effects is that the climatic histories of sequential moments overlap, so it may not be the case that outcomes at any moment are only a response to a single historical climate event
How can the issue be resolved?
this issue can be resolved by conditioning expected outcomes on the complete history of climatic events using a distributed lag model
thus far, we have only considered contemporaneous effects of the vector ci t on outcome yi t. we now consider the influence of the entire vector field c s t defined across all positions s and moments t on the outcome yi t. 4.2.1. temporal displacement. a climatic event at time t might bring an event that would otherwise occur at time t 1 forward in time, an effect known as temporal displacement or harvesting. for example, desch^enes moretti (2009) highlight the importance of this concept by demonstrating that many deaths that occur during hot days in the united states would have likely occurred within the subsequent two months even in the absence of a hot day; they thus conclude that an effect of a heat wave will influence the timing of deaths within a relatively narrow window, in addition to creating some entirely new deaths figure 7 a ). mathematically, the signature of temporal displacement is for periods following a climatic event to have a response that is opposite in sign to the contemporaneous response. a challenge to identifying these lagged effects is that the climatic histories of sequential moments overlap, so it may not be the case that outcomes at any moment are only a response to a single historical climate event. rather, outcomes at each moment represent a superposition of many historical events each at a different moment in time. this issue can be resolved by conditioning expected outcomes on the complete history of climatic events using a distributed lag model: yi t ^ ai
What advantages increasing productivity has to offer?
increasing productivity, whether through intensive farming, technology or improved animal husbandry, offers an opportunity to reduce emissions while raising farm profitability
Why intensive rearing of cattle on feedlots is less emissions-intensive than pasture-based grazing systems?
intensive rearing of cattle on feedlots is less emissions-intensive than pasture-based grazing systems because grass-fed cows tend to produce more methane and take longer to reach slaughter weight
What large-scale feedlots are associated with?
large-scale feedlots are associated with water pollution from cattle effluent and from fertilizers used in feed production
increasing productivity, whether through intensive farming, technology or improved animal husbandry, offers an opportunity to reduce emissions while raising farm profitability. intensive rearing of cattle on feedlots is less emissions-intensive than pasture-based grazing systems because grass-fed cows tend to produce more methane and take longer to reach slaughter weight.30 however, this also raises the spectre of an unwanted 'rebound effect', whereby increased productivity drives down prices and increases demand for meat and dairy, potentially reducing the extent of emissions savings. some of the most productive livestock systems may also raise other problems. large-scale feedlots are associated with water pollution from cattle effluent and from fertilizers used in feed production,31
Why adaptation is recognized?
finally, it should be recognized that ''adaptation'' is an ongoing process that is part of good risk management, whereby drivers of risk are identified, and their likely impacts on systems under alternative management are assessed
Why adaptation to climate change is changed?
adaptation to climate change is similar to adaptation to climate variability, changes in market forces (cost/ price ratios, consumer demands, etc.), or institutional or other factors. differences may be in the rate of realized climate change, compared with how fast we are able to implement needed solutions
How Isolating climate change from other drivers of risk be helpful?
isolating climate change from other drivers of risk may be helpful, especially during the initial stages of assessment when awareness of the relative importance of this risk factor is still low
finally, it should be recognized that ''adaptation'' is an ongoing process that is part of good risk management, whereby drivers of risk are identified, and their likely impacts on systems under alternative management are assessed. in this respect, adaptation to climate change is similar to adaptation to climate variability, changes in market forces (cost/ price ratios, consumer demands, etc.), or institutional or other factors. differences may be in the rate of realized climate change, compared with how fast we are able to implement needed solutions. isolating climate change from other drivers of risk may be helpful, especially during the initial stages of assessment when awareness of the relative importance of this risk factor is still low. operationally, however, translating adaptation options into adaptation actions requires consideration of a more comprehensive risk management framework. this would allow exploration of quantified scenarios dealing with all of the key sources of risk, providing more effective
What would proper resource allocation require?
a complete set of welfare functions aggregating the utility levels of individuals in each region
How are countries underweighted in the model (3.2)?
countries with a very low asset base and where climate damages are potentially very high are under-weighted in the model below. 3.2
What is one way that approximation can remain valid?
i) the weights attached to each individual's utility function must be assumed proportional to the individual's income (negishi weighting);18 and (ii) the national climate bill (the costs of mitigation, proactive adaptation, reactive adaptation and remaining ultimate damages combined) must remain limited relative to national income--say less than 10%--so that utility can be considered linear in expenditures
proper resource allocation would require a complete set of welfare functions aggregating the utility levels of individuals in each region. to simplify, a cost-minimization approach is used, in which monetary costs and benefits are aggregated. for the approximation to remain valid, (i) the weights attached to each individual's utility function must be assumed proportional to the individual's income (negishi weighting);18 and (ii) the national climate bill (the costs of mitigation, proactive adaptation, reactive adaptation and remaining ultimate damages combined) must remain limited relative to national income--say less than 10%--so that utility can be considered linear in expenditures. countries with a very low asset base and where climate damages are potentially very high are under-weighted in the model below. 3.2. the resource allocation problem and its solution we assume a central planner that seeks to minimize the world climate bill. if r is the discount rate, the cost-minimization program is as follows:
Who was thanked for giving advice regarding the reorganization of the original Kim and O'Neil equilibrium relationship for calcite?
in particular we would like to thank jim o'neil and tim heaton for advice regarding the reorganisation of the original kim and o'neil equilibrium relationship for calcite
Who funded the research by the Hawes Water Research Group?
nerc funded the research by the hawes water research group based at liverpool university
Who provided access to Hawes Water?
access to hawes water was kindly provided by english nature
acknowledgements we wish to thank all our friends and colleagues who have faced us with many problems in the use of isotopes in palaeoclimate research. their enthusiasm has contributed to our understanding of the systematics that have been described in this paper. in particular we would like to thank jim o'neil and tim heaton for advice regarding the reorganisation of the original kim and o'neil equilibrium relationship for calcite. richard jones, matt jones and angela lamb all helped with earlier drafts. we greatly appreciate the time carol arrowsmith spent redrafting some of the figures, and for constructive comments from julian andrews and neil roberts. nerc funded the research by the hawes water research group based at liverpool university. access to hawes water was kindly provided by english nature.
At what levels will the risks from climate change to agriculture likely occur?
the risks from climate change to agriculture will more likely occur at regional levels, depend on changes in precipitation or changes in variability of climate, or stem from more complex climateagricultureenvironment interactions
Name the specific research areas?
specific research areas include research on agricultureenvironment links, on climate-pest interactions, and on the effects of climate variability
What will help respond to potential climate threats?
a vigorous public and private research and development enterprise and attention to environment and conservation policy will help respond to potential climate threats
the risks from climate change to agriculture will more likely occur at regional levels, depend on changes in precipitation or changes in variability of climate, or stem from more complex climateagricultureenvironment interactions. in particular we found increased risks due to enso, to nitrogen loadings in the chesapeake bay, and to ecosystems dependent on the edward's aquifer in texas. the need to protect such environmental assets would require changes in agricultural practices that would, in turn, increase production costs. much more study is needed here with a more complete assessment of environmental effects of climate change. on the positive side we found that for the u.s. as whole, water demand from agriculture would decrease under these scenarios, lessening competition with growing urban demand. we still remain highly uncertain about how climate will change. our study is one of the first to examine the new, more realistic transient climate scenarios in some detail. research on multiple environmental stresses and using these results to develop sound models that can simulate the complex biophysical interactions with farm management and farm policy is needed. specific research areas include research on agricultureenvironment links, on climate-pest interactions, and on the effects of climate variability. a vigorous public and private research and development enterprise and attention to environment and conservation policy will help respond to potential climate threats. commodity policy as it has traditionally been designed and federal risk management strategies will need to balance the well-meaning desire to aid farmers and regions that may be threatened by a changing climate with the recognition that such aid can often discourage the adaptation and change that will be needed. while climate prediction is highly uncertain, it seems likely that in some regions agriculture may well become non-viable even if many areas benefit.
Our finding that cross-taxon congruence is high for total species richnes reflects what?
reflects the importance of the interaction between energy and topography in predicting diversity
We have also restricted our analyses to what?
terrestrial habitats and closely related organisms
however, that 'silver-bullet' conservation strategies based on particular taxonomic groups will not be what?
be effective because locations rich in one aspect of diversity will not necessarily be rich in others
our finding that cross-taxon congruence is high for total species richness, given that the richest areas are consistently associated with low latitudes and mountainous regions13, reflects the importance of the interaction between energy and topography in predicting diversity. caution is again needed when invoking explanations for why congruence and surrogacy are lower for rare and threatened species: such species typically have relatively small geographic ranges and thus low overlap in range might be expected. there may, however, be additional factors. for rare species, all three groups have richness peaks on the neotropical mainland, but avian rarity also peaks on oceanic island archipelagos, whereas rare mammal species are concentrated on continental shelf islands and rare amphibian species are often on continental land masses. such differences may therefore reflect relative dispersal ability. for threatened species, low congruence may also result from differences among groups in their sensitivity to particular threatening processes. although the main source of threat for all three groups is habitat loss, subsidiary threats differ among groups. invasive species and overexploitation are chief secondary sources in birds3, overexploitation is the main secondary source in mammals3, and climate change, pollution and transmissible disease are important in amphibians15. low congruence among threatened species may therefore be driven by differences in the distribution of these risks. could our findings that cross-taxon congruence is high for overall species richness but low for rare and threatened species be due to biases in the databases? systematic error could result if some geographical regions, or some taxa, are relatively poorly studied; however, our key findings remain qualitatively intact even if we restrict our analyses within the best-studied areas (the nearctic, palearctic and australia; supplementary fig. 1) or the best known groups (birds and mammals; table 1). bias in our estimates of overall range could also influence cross-taxon congruence because congruence should decline with decreasing range size. our conclusions are probably conservative in this respect, however, because the extents of occurrence used tend to overestimate true ranges22. it is therefore unlikely that our main conclusions are artefactual: indeed, we predict that more detailed information on the geographical distribution of poorly known species will show that cross-taxon congruence and surrogacy for rare and threatened species are even lower than estimated here. our findings should be interpreted cautiously with respect to applied conservation. we have ignored the political and socioeconomic factors that are vital in practical conservation23,24and have focused on species rather than ecoregions and ecosystem services17,25. we have also restricted our analyses to terrestrial habitats and closely related organisms. nevertheless, we have shown that, even among terrestrial vertebrates, the extent to which rare and threatened species from one group can act as a surrogate for corresponding species in other groups is severely limited, especially at the finer scales most relevant to conservation. at such scales, we predict that low crosstaxon congruence will be a property of any set of global priority areas and that congruence is likely to be even lower among more distantly related organisms or across terrestrial and aquatic habitats. this is of concern because, although previous global analyses have explored numerous methods for identifying priority areas25, they are fundamentally based on data from just one or two groups1,2,4,21. our results suggest that designing effective protected area networks will require high-resolution data on the distribution of multiple taxa and an understanding of how these relate to ecosystems. these challenges are being tackled through projects mapping the distribution of species at a scale comparable to individual protected areas26-28. we anticipate, however, that 'silver-bullet' conservation strategies based on particular taxonomic groups will not be effective because locations rich in one aspect of diversity will not necessarily be rich in others.
What industry had long-term economic impact from ice storms?
long-term economic impacts have been evident in the maple sugar industry
What types of weather events have been increasing in frequency?
the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, such as heavy winds, winter storms and lightning
In what year did an ice storm hit eastern Ontatio?
demonstrated by the 1998 ice storm that hit eastern ontario, southern quebec and parts of the maritime provinces
the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, such as heavy winds, winter storms and lightning, are projected to increase due to climate change. the impact of extreme climate events on forests and the forest sector was clearly demonstrated by the 1998 ice storm that hit eastern ontario, southern quebec and parts of the maritime provinces. damage from the ice storm in areas of quebec was comparable to that of the most destructive windstorms and hurricanes recorded anywhere.(77)long-term economic impacts have been evident in the maple sugar industry, with almost 70% of the canadian production region affected by the storm.(78)researchers are still working to quantify the actual costs.(79)ice storms are not uncommon events, but the intensity, duration and extent of the january 1998 event was exceptional.(78)nonetheless, such storms may become more frequent in association with milder winters in the future.(3)
What ar AR CDM projects?
temporary" or "long-term" certifi ed emission reductions (cers) alternatively
When was the first commitment period of the KP?
2008-2012
What are the sources for the leakage claims?
bonnie et al 2000; marland et al 2001
only expiring carbon credits will be issued from ar cdm projects ("temporary" or "long-term" certifi ed emission reductions (cers) alternatively), so that credits expire before termination of the project, or when the carbon is released back to the atmosphere prematurely. in both cases, the investor that used the credits to get into compliance will be debited accordingly. the decision also acknowledges that is up to host parties to evaluate risks associated with ar projects, such as the use of invasive alien species and genetically modifi ed organisms, according to their national laws. the text of the decision also invites parties' submissions on simplifi ed modalities and procedures for small-scale projects and their implementation. in contrast, activities aimed at reversing or slowing deforestation in developing countries are excluded for the fi rst commitment period of the kp (2008-2012). arguments against allowing deforestation avoidance activities were high uncertainties of ghg-reduction estimates, the potentially large scale of credits, non-permanence, and leakage concerns (bonnie et al 2000; marland et al 2001).
What does Figure 2 indicate?
the third potential cause of the deviations seen in figure 2 is the error in the dating of the ice core
What does Figure 3 indicate?
five realizations of a wiener process with unit standard deviation and 23 steps, with linear trend and mean removed
the third potential cause of the deviations seen in figure 2 is the error in the dating of the ice core. since the analyzed core section is dated by layer-counting, this error is cumulative and behaves like the clock error. to derive an upper limit we can assume again that all the observed deviations are completely caused by dating error. this leads to the conclusion that the random dating error of these data is less than 7% during the  40 kyr considered. this is not the total error since systematic errors cannot be detected in this way; if the number of layers was systematically undercounted by 5% percent, this would simply lead to a period p that was underestimated by 5% but not to random variations around this period. the same analysis technique was applied to the older part of gisp2 (>51 kyr b.p.), which was not dated by layer counting but by correlation with the antarctic vostok ice figure 3. five realizations of a wiener process with unit standard deviation and 23 steps, with linear trend and mean removed.
Which report delivered new material on climate change impacts, but did not venture to deliver any conclusive judgement?
the third assessment report (tar) of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc
The Report forces the analyst to assess dealing with climate in three distinct areas (a,b,and c). What is assessment 'b'?
b) clarify the proxies that are used to capture the benefits of climate action, and against which the costs of this action are to be weighted
Section 3 of the paper notes the a cost-effectiveness analysis of temperature ceiling objectives. What does Section 5 note?
a costbenefit approach using a monetized quantification of damages
little progress has been made since 1992 on what constitutes a " dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system " the third assessment report (tar) of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) delivered new material on climate change impacts but did not venture to deliver any conclusive judgment in this context, which decision-making framework should be used to design climate policies remains an open question (see (chap. 1&2) and (chap. 10) for a survey). bounded cost; minimax regret; maximin gain; minimax loss; cost-effectiveness, tolerable windows and safe landing approaches; cost-benefit analysis, each with its own merits and limitations, are representative of the diversity of decision-making attitudes in a sea of uncertainty the objective of this paper is to assess how each of these attitudes translates in terms of timing of emissions abatement. it is achieved through the use of optimal control models, which can put some rationale into pending controversies and thus facilitate the emergence of compromises because they are apt to disentangle the sources of misunderstandings from the real division lines. indeed they force the analyst to a) identify the pathways through which climate change may impact on global welfare; b) clarify the proxies that are used to capture the benefits of climate action, and against which the costs of this action are to be weighted and c) make explicit the level of confidence about scientific information and the ethical choices which underpin the selection of a given framework. hence, after having discussed how various attitudes towards climate change lead to various metrics to capture the benefits of climate policies (section 2) we successively analyze the optimal abatement pathway derived from (section 3) a cost-effectiveness analysis of temperature ceiling objectives, (section 4) a cost-benefit analysis using a pure preference for current climate regime and (section 5) a costbenefit approach using a monetized quantification of damages.
What are the reports on Zn.?
although cd has been reported to displace zn from high molecular weight proteins, but not from endogenous mt (sorensen 1991), cd exposure did not significantly affect zn levels of any tissues in this study (figure 5a). these findings suggest a homeostatic regulation of this essential metal, in agreement with the results of hollis et al. (2001) for waterborne cd exposure
What is the indication of Zn burden?
the decrease of zn burden in the posterior intestine of cd-exposed trout is probably attributable to the sloughing of cell materials, as discussed before. similar to zn, no indication of cu displacement by dietary cd is evident in this study, again in agreement with the results of hollis et al. (2001) for waterborne cd exposure
Do Cu levels Increase?
indeed, in the present study, cu levels increased or remained unchanged, instead of showing a decrease due to displacement by cd, in most of the tissues of cd acclimated fish relative to nave fish (figure 5b). although liver cu level did not change in the present study, weber et al. (1992) recorded an elevated liver cu in largemouth bass exposed to dietary cd. the elevated tissue cu levels might be attributable to the increased binding capacity of the tissues in cd exposed fish as a result of de novo synthesis of mt, and suggests that chronic cd exposure may lead to increased loading of exogenous cu or redistribution of endogenous cu within the fish
although cd has been reported to displace zn from high molecular weight proteins, but not from endogenous mt (sorensen 1991), cd exposure did not significantly affect zn levels of any tissues in this study (figure 5a). these findings suggest a homeostatic regulation of this essential metal, in agreement with the results of hollis et al. (2001) for waterborne cd exposure. the decrease of zn burden in the posterior intestine of cd-exposed trout is probably attributable to the sloughing of cell materials, as discussed before. similar to zn, no indication of cu displacement by dietary cd is evident in this study, again in agreement with the results of hollis et al. (2001) for waterborne cd exposure. indeed, in the present study, cu levels increased or remained unchanged, instead of showing a decrease due to displacement by cd, in most of the tissues of cd acclimated fish relative to nave fish (figure 5b). although liver cu level did not change in the present study, weber et al. (1992) recorded an elevated liver cu in largemouth bass exposed to dietary cd. the elevated tissue cu levels might be attributable to the increased binding capacity of the tissues in cd exposed fish as a result of de novo synthesis of mt, and suggests that chronic cd exposure may lead to increased loading of exogenous cu or redistribution of endogenous cu within the fish.
Describe the highlands?
this was how mote et al. (2005) compared climate models with observations, yielding results substantially similar to those presented here. the drawback of this approach is that it does not account for the contribution to a regional average of high terrain, which has very few weather stations
Describe the climate model?
a better estimate interpolates (horizontally) and extrapolates (vertically) observations to a uniform, highresolution grid (e.g., hamlet and lettenmaier, 2005). such an estimate, however, would be unsuitable for comparing with climate model output, which lacks the vertical relief
besides model resolution, another consideration in comparing global models with observations is that there are different ways to calculate "observed" regionally averaged temperature and precipitation. a common approach is to average weather station data into "climate divisions" and combine the climate divisions into a state or regional average with area weighting; this was how mote et al. (2005) compared climate models with observations, yielding results substantially similar to those presented here. the drawback of this approach is that it does not account for the contribution to a regional average of high terrain, which has very few weather stations. a better estimate interpolates (horizontally) and extrapolates (vertically) observations to a uniform, highresolution grid (e.g., hamlet and lettenmaier, 2005). such an estimate, however, would be unsuitable for comparing with climate model output, which lacks the vertical relief.
Why is case study method most appropriate to this area of research, according to the writer?
case study methodology is most appropriate to this area of research because of the complex relations among the actors and the focus on historical processes
What are the other arguments in favour of case study?
case studies can provide the breadth and depth of information to allow descriptive, causative, and inductive analysis to be performed (eisenhardt, 1989; miles and huberman, 1984; yin, 1989
As per the researcher , what is the scope of this research paper?
the research for this paper forms part of a broader project on the automobile and oil industries' responses to the climate change issue in the usa and europe
case study methodology is most appropriate to this area of research because of the complex relations among the actors and the focus on historical processes. case studies can provide the breadth and depth of information to allow descriptive, causative, and inductive analysis to be performed (eisenhardt, 1989; miles and huberman, 1984; yin, 1989). the case study presented here does not formally test the theoretical framework; rather, the framework evolved inductively from the case study, in a series of iterations entailing feedback from colleagues and further consideration of the data. the research for this paper forms part of a broader project on the automobile and oil industries' responses to the climate change issue in the usa and europe.
What can heating also be done with other than mechanical ventilators?
heating can also be done with radiators, which are independent of weather conditions
ventilation: with/without mechanical ventilation (including energy recovery); with/without natural night-time ventilation the delivered heating or cooling power, the used air change rates as well as lighting and blind positioning correspond to the control inputs u the control task consists of finding the optimal combination of inputs that differed in their weather dependence, dynamical effects and energy use. for example mechanical ventilation, which provides the room with fresh air to guarantee indoor air quality, can be used both for cooling and for heating, depending on the weather conditions. but heating can also be done with radiators, which are independent of weather conditions. tabs can be used for heating and cooling but are much slower compared to ventilation or radiators etc. further details on the experimental setup can be found in assumption 1: the room dynamics are described as xk +1 axk buk ... ... bvvk
Which company owns the Copyright?
british crown
What regions does the black lines enclose?
black lines enclose regions where trends are significant at the 5% level
What does the The red curves on the plots represent?
the red curves on the plots represent non-linear trend estimates obtained by smoothing using a 21-term binomial filter
fig.2: trends (in days per decade, shown as maps) and annual time series anomalies relative to 1961-1990 mean values (shown as plots) for annual series of percentile temperature indices for 1951-2003 for (a) cold nights (tn10p), (b) warm nights (tn90p), (c) cold days (tx10p) and (d) warm days (tx90p). trends were calculated only for the grid boxes with sufficient data (at least 40 years of data during the period and the last year of the series is no earlier than 1999). black lines enclose regions where trends are significant at the 5% level. the red curves on the plots represent non-linear trend estimates obtained by smoothing using a 21-term binomial filter. alexander et al. global extreme indices 27/09/2005 page 30 of 42 (c) british crown copyright
how long does H2SO4 vapor take to condense onto existing aerosols?
h2so4 vapor quickly (hours) condenses onto existing aerosols or forms new aerosols by homogeneous nucleation
What individual came up with an analysis that stated that this method may be ineffective because it produces aerosols that are substantially larger than optimal
a recent analysis heckendorn et al. 2009] suggests that this method may be ineffective because it produces aerosols that are substantially larger than optimal
what is produced by an analogous process
aerosol geoengineering would be produced by an analogous process
h2so4 vapor quickly (hours) condenses onto existing aerosols or forms new aerosols by homogeneous nucleation. most of the recent analyses have assumed that aerosols in stratospheric - aerosol geoengineering would be produced by an analogous process, i.e. the injection of either so2 or h2s gas that is slowly converted to sulfate aerosol. a recent analysis heckendorn et al. 2009] suggests that this method may be ineffective because it produces aerosols that are substantially larger than optimal. the added mass accumulates preferentially on larger pre - existing particles either by direct condensation or by homogeneous nucleation followed by coagulation. the net effect is that radiative forcing increases sub - linearly with sulfur emissions, so a large (relative to previous studies) injection rate of 10 mt - s/yr at the equator and 20 km produces a radiative forcing of only 1.7 w m- 2, less than half of what is needed to offset the radiative forcing of a co2 doubling heckendorn et al. 2009].
What is Allee threshold?
population falls below a minimum population density
What are the factors that generate Allee effects?
decrease in cooperation to find resources and avoid natural enemies, an increase of inbreeding and an increase of reproduction difficulties at low population density
Which spices could follow the shift of the climate envelope?
invasive species with high mobility
indeed, when some individuals disperse into new areas, they are generally at low densities. if the population falls below a minimum population density, called the allee threshold, it will likely go extinct naturally (lande 1993; liebhold tobin 2008). many factors may generate allee effects, such as a decrease in cooperation to find resources and avoid natural enemies, an increase of inbreeding and an increase of reproduction difficulties at low population density. in this regard, climatic factors might play an important role if they can increase the per capita reproductive output for any given population density. invasive species with high mobility could more easily follow the shift of the climate envelope and have the greatest potential for rapid expansion. however, in the case of allee effects, they might fail to expand when they move to a large favorable area because of the dissemination of the population in space, and the decrease in the population density (roques et al 2008). the population growth rate could increase with climate change; so, allee effects would not occur anymore and species with high dispersal capabilities could successfully invade new territories.
What are we breifly reviewing here?
here, we briefly review the background mathematics of our da approach to cfr and leave the details to the appendix
What mathematics are we comparing?
we also compare the mathematics of da with the pca-based method discussed in section 2a
What does data assimilation typically handle?
data assimilation typically handles observations (or ''pseudoproxies'' in this paper) by either filtering, which proceeds sequentially at discrete times, or smoothing, which proceeds over time intervals
here, we briefly review the background mathematics of our da approach to cfr and leave the details to the appendix. we also compare the mathematics of da with the pca-based method discussed in section 2a. data assimilation typically handles observations (or ''pseudoproxies'' in this paper) by either filtering, which proceeds sequentially at discrete times, or smoothing, which proceeds over time intervals. the paleoclimate reconstruction problem, however, tends to blur this distinction because of the integrated nature of many proxies, and the treatment of time-averaged observations in da has been discussed in dirren and hakim (2005), huntley and hakim (2010), and pendergrass et al. (2012). in either filtering or smoothing, an essential element of da is the notion of a background, or prior, estimate of the observations. in weather forecasting, the prior comes from a short-term forecast based on an earlier analysis, but this need not always be the case. in a climate context, the prior could be a climate forecast based on a reconstructed state at an earlier time, which if
Name the three scenarios considered for global biomass availability?
scenario 'alpha', which involves the use of biomass available with little change to current practices; scenario 'beta', which assumes some legislation or incentives to promote both sustainable land-use practices and reduced contamination of biomass waste streams; and a 'maximum sustainable technical potential' (mstp) scenario representing the maximum biochar production technically achievable within our sustainability constraints if humanity were to strive to do their utmost to mitigate climate change
What wil happen if other strong mitigation measures are also not put in place?
if other strong mitigation measures are not also put in place, reductions in global crop yields may reduce the availability of feedstock from agricultural residues
According to the study, what is not a viable climate mitigation strategy?
however, for the reasons given in section 2.1.6, land clearance to provide biomass feedstock is not a viable climate mitigation strategy
we consider three scenarios for global biomass availability: scenario 'alpha', which involves the use of biomass available with little change to current practices; scenario 'beta', which assumes some legislation or incentives to promote both sustainable land-use practices and reduced contamination of biomass waste streams; and a 'maximum sustainable technical potential' (mstp) scenario representing the maximum biochar production technically achievable within our sustainability constraints if humanity were to strive to do their utmost to mitigate climate change. in assessing the biomass availability within these scenarios, no account has been taken of the impact of climate change on biomass availability. rather, this analysis is premised upon the assumption that biochar production will form part of a suite of mitigation measures that succeed in controlling climate change to within reasonable bounds. if other strong mitigation measures are not also put in place, reductions in global crop yields may reduce the availability of feedstock from agricultural residues. other feedstocks such as timber from tree mortalities may however increase. the net impact on biomass availability under various warming scenarios is beyond the scope of this study. nor have we included the effects of population change in this assessment for the reason that its main effect on biomass availability is likely to be the clearance of land to increase food production for a growing population, resulting in an increase in production of agricultural residues and thus greater biomass availability. however, for the reasons given in section 2.1.6, land clearance to provide biomass feedstock is not a viable climate mitigation strategy. we have therefore chosen to investigate what the potential for biochar production is assuming that no land clearance is used to provide feedstock. since, in practice, it will be very difficult to distinguish land-clearance driven by population growth from other drivers, the best way to maintain clarity that this assessment includes only the potential for biochar without land clearance is to omit any potential increases in feedstock arising from population growth. while this may lead to a low (conservative) estimate of the availability of agricultural residues, it does provide transparency about how the sustainability principles are applied. the availability of sustainable biomass feedstocks, whose utilisation does not entail an increase in human appropriation of global net primary productivity, is broken down by category of feedstock.
What causes rising sea levels?
oceanic thermal expansion and ice-cap melting
What fraction of the world's population live within 60 miles of a shoreline?
a third
How many people would be displaced by a 1.0m sea level rise in Bangladesh?
15 million people
both demand and compensatory rises in food production will be complicated by high land loss, a result of industrialisation, urbanisation, and sea level rises and increased fl ooding. also, an expansion of the global population will eventually bring a substantial rise in co2 emissions. rising sea levels, which result from oceanic thermal expansion and ice-cap melting, will be a major contributing factor to population displacement.4 the recent doubling of sea level rise projections from the march, 2009, copenhagen conference are especially worrying. as mentioned previously, a third of the world's population lives within 60 miles of a shoreline, and a high number of these live at low altitudes. the rising of the sea level will be most intensely felt in densely populated, low-lying river deltas, such as the delta region of bangladesh or the nile delta in egypt. in bangladesh, for instance, over 120 million people populate the complex delta region: a 0*5-m sea level rise will account for 10% land loss and a displacement of 6 million people; a rise of 1*0 m will cause 20% land loss and a population displacement of 15 million people.86
What do the  results for a base point over northwestern Russia show?
the results for a base point over northwestern russia (middle panels) show a somewhat different behavior, although the wave again has a fixed phase
Where does the wave energy split?
in this case, the wave energy moves along the north america/atlantic jet, but then appears to split at the jet exit region, with most of the wave activity moving northeastward out of the jet in a path over northern eurasia (north of the jet) where it has a zonal wavelength of about 90deg longitude
What zonal wave length does the wave activity have?
with most of the wave activity moving northeastward out of the jet in a path over northern eurasia (north of the jet) where it has a zonal wavelength of about 90deg longitude
the results for a base point over northwestern russia (middle panels) show a somewhat different behavior, although the wave again has a fixed phase. in this case, the wave energy moves along the north america/atlantic jet, but then appears to split at the jet exit region, with most of the wave activity moving northeastward out of the jet in a path over northern eurasia (north of the jet) where it has a zonal wavelength of about 90deg longitude. some of the wave energy moves south and east (initially south over northern africa), remaining effectively embedded in the asian jet. the behavior is again similar in the unfiltered data (not shown). the right panels show the structure obtained if the base point is moved south over the caspian sea. in that case the wave energy is almost entirely confined to the jet, with the wave extending from europe across southern eurasia into the pacific.
how much of the world's renewable freshwater is possessed by Canada?
canada has a relative abundance of water, possessing 9% of the world's renewable freshwater
what are some of the water related problems experienced by most regions of the country?
most regions of the country have experienced water-related problems, such as shortages (droughts), excesses (floods) and associated water quality issues
what Climatic variables greatly influence the hydrological cycle?
climatic variables, such as temperature and precipitation, greatly influence the hydrological cycle, and changes in these variables will affect runoff and evaporation patterns, as well as the amount of water stored in glaciers, snowpacks, lakes, wetlands, soil moisture and groundwater
canada has a relative abundance of water, possessing 9% of the world's renewable freshwater, yet only 0.5% of the global population.(2)however, the water is not evenly distributed across the country, and water availability varies both between years and with the changing seasons. as a result, most regions of the country have experienced water-related problems, such as shortages (droughts), excesses (floods) and associated water quality issues. for example, the drought of 2001 affected canada from coast to coast (table 1), with significant economic and social impacts. in the 1990s, severe flooding in the saguenay region of quebec (1996) and manitoba's red river valley (1997) were two of the costliest natural disasters in canadian history. in its third assessment report, the intergovernmental panel on climate change projects an increase in globally averaged surface air temperatures of 1.4-5.8degc by 2100. changes of this magnitude would significantly impact water resources in canada.(4)climatic variables, such as temperature and precipitation, greatly influence the hydrological cycle, and changes in these variables will affect runoff and evaporation patterns, as well as the amount of water stored in glaciers, snowpacks, lakes, wetlands, soil moisture and groundwater. however, there remains uncertainty as to the magnitude and, in some cases, the direction of these changes. this is related to the difficulty that climate models have in projecting future changes in regional precipitation patterns and extreme events, and to our incomplete understanding of hydroclimatic processes.
In what sectors does climate change impact work?
most climate change impacts work at the state or national scale has been for entire sectors (e.g., water, crop agriculture, or energy) as if they are homogenous and will be affected equally by climatic stresses in the future
What can be said of the effects on the water sector?
in the water sector, for example, climate-induced water scarcity could be felt quite differently by communities supplied by large water utilities compared to communities not currently connected to these large water suppliers
How can we understand and identify "hotspots of vulnerability" better?
understanding which communities, regions, or businesses could be hardest hit will allow identification of ''hotspots of vulnerability'' and, thus, prioritization of adaptation support
to date, most climate change impacts work at the state or national scale has been for entire sectors (e.g., water, crop agriculture, or energy) as if they are homogenous and will be affected equally by climatic stresses in the future. it has been recognized for more than a decade, however, that impacts will not be felt uniformly (e.g., national assessment synthesis team, 2000 ). in the water sector, for example, climate-induced water scarcity could be felt quite differently by communities supplied by large water utilities compared to communities not currently connected to these large water suppliers. some social science research thus distinguishes weather-related water scarcity from human-induced scarcity, raising important questions about access and political power, not just traditional water rights. this example illustrates how the capacity to identify and implement different adaptive options could vary significantly, and thus give a more differentiated picture than mere downscaling of climate projections could provide. understanding which communities, regions, or businesses could be hardest hit will allow identification of ''hotspots of vulnerability'' and, thus, prioritization of adaptation support.
what  is Warminginduced changes?
warminginduced changes to evapotranspiration may also affect regional water availability. unfortunately, there is little agreement on the direction and magnitude of historical, let alone one predicted, evapotranspiration trends
what are Observations from various countries in the Northern Hemisphere shows?
observations from various countries in the northern hemisphere show that pan evaporation has been steadily decreasing for the past fifty years, contrary to the expectation that warming would cause increased evaporation19-22
what are the two proposals exist to explain this paradox?
first, decreasing pan evaporation trends may be indicative of increasing actual (as opposed to potential) evapotranspiration in moisture-limited regions because increased land surface evaporation alters the humidity regime surrounding the pan, causing the air over the pan to be cooler and more humid23-26. second, consistent declines of pan evaporation, diurnal temperature range, and global solar irradiance suggest that actual evapotranspiration is also declining because of increased cloudiness and concentrations of atmospheric aerosols that systematically reduce surface energy availability for evaporation19,27-29
our discussion so far has focused on the direct effects of warming on stream-flow seasonality in snowmelt-dominated regions. warminginduced changes to evapotranspiration may also affect regional water availability. unfortunately, there is little agreement on the direction and magnitude of historical, let alone one predicted, evapotranspiration trends. observations from various countries in the northern hemisphere show that pan evaporation has been steadily decreasing for the past fifty years, contrary to the expectation that warming would cause increased evaporation19-22. two proposals exist to explain this paradox. first, decreasing pan evaporation trends may be indicative of increasing actual (as opposed to potential) evapotranspiration in moisture-limited regions because increased land surface evaporation alters the humidity regime surrounding the pan, causing the air over the pan to be cooler and more humid23-26. second, consistent declines of pan evaporation, diurnal temperature range, and global solar irradiance suggest that actual evapotranspiration is also declining because of increased cloudiness and concentrations of atmospheric aerosols that systematically reduce surface energy availability for evaporation19,27-29. changes in wind speed or in the attenuation of wind at the surface due to changes in vegetation at observing sites
How did we maintain temperatures indoors?
import heat or cold into the building in the form of firewood, coal (where available), ice, sun or warm or cool air
When was the last ice age?
the last ice age occurred only just over 12 000 years ago
What global temperatures were occuring during the last ice Age?
the global temperature was around 3 deg c colder than today
choose a different climate for a different season, by migrating between summer and winter lands in transhumant or nomadic migrations. <s121>* change the form and/or materials of the building to provide a range of indoor climates that keep out or in the heat or cold as is needed over the year. <s121>* choose a different part of a building or space for use at a particular time of day or season on planned intramural migrations around one building. <s121>* import heat or cold into the building in the form of firewood, coal (where available), ice, sun or warm or cool air. <s121>* evolve the buildings and lifestyles to accommodate climate change. in the evolution of buildings people have always played a vital part in adapting themselves and the buildings around them to provide the comfort they seek. the question we must ask now is whether, in a rapidly changing climate, the majority of the world's population, who cannot afford mechanical cooling, can adapt their buildings fast and far enough to be able to remain in their traditional lands. the last ice age occurred only just over 12 000 years ago, when the global temperature was around 3 deg c colder than today. three degrees seems like a very small change to have such dramatic consequences on the global climate. after all, northern europe was largely covered by ice more free ebooks http://fast-file.blogspot.com
What is thought will play a substantial role in future energy systems?
biomass from cellulosic bioenergy crops is expected to play a substantial role in future energy systems, especially if climate policy aims at stabilizing greenhouse gas concentration at low levels
Why does potential of bioenergy for climate change mitigation remain unclear?
the potential of bioenergy for climate change mitigation remains unclear due to large uncertainties about future agricultural yield improvements and land availability for biomass plantations
What have we found will contribute 100 EJ in 2055 and up to 300 EJ of primary energy in 2095?
we find that bioenergy from specialized grassy and woody bioenergy crops, such as miscanthus or poplar, can contribute approximately 100 ej in 2055 and up to 300 ej of primary energy in 2095
received 14 october 2010 accepted for publication 18 july 2011 published 16 august 2011 online at stacks.iop.org/erl/6/034017 biomass from cellulosic bioenergy crops is expected to play a substantial role in future energy systems, especially if climate policy aims at stabilizing greenhouse gas concentration at low levels. however, the potential of bioenergy for climate change mitigation remains unclear due to large uncertainties about future agricultural yield improvements and land availability for biomass plantations. this letter, by applying a modelling framework with detailed economic representation of the land and energy sector, explores the cost-effective contribution of bioenergy to a low-carbon transition, paying special attention to implications for the land system. in this modelling framework, bioenergy competes directly with other energy technology options on the basis of costs, including implicit costs due to biophysical constraints on land and water availability. as a result, we find that bioenergy from specialized grassy and woody bioenergy crops, such as miscanthus or poplar, can contribute approximately 100 ej in 2055 and up to 300 ej of primary energy in 2095. protecting natural forests decreases biomass availability for energy production in the medium, but not in the long run. reducing the land available for agricultural use can partially be compensated for by means of higher rates of technological change in agriculture. in addition, our trade-off analysis indicates that forest protection combined with large-scale cultivation of dedicated bioenergy is likely to affect bioenergy potentials, but also to increase global food prices and increase water scarcity. therefore, integrated policies for energy, land use and water management are needed.
How will precipitation change in high latitude regions?
it is likely that precipitation will increase over high latitude regions in both summer and winter
How will precipitation change in tropical Africa?
increases are also projected over northern mid-latitudes, tropical africa and antarctica in winter
How will precipitation change in Australia?
australia, central america, and southern africa show consistent decreases in winter rainfall
pre-publication draft ipcc synthesis report to the tar approved synthesis report text 50 subject to final copyedit 3.12 at the regional scale, both increases and decreases in precipitation are projected, typically of 5 to 20%. it is likely that precipitation will increase over high latitude regions in both summer and winter increases are also projected over northern mid-latitudes, tropical africa and antarctica in winter, and in southern and eastern asia in summer. australia, central america, and southern africa show consistent decreases in winter rainfall. larger year-to-year variations in precipitation are very likely over most areas where an increase in mean precipitation is projected (see figure 3-3). [wgi tar section 10.3.2]
What are the consequences of the concentration and compacting of tall buildings?
the concentration and compaction of high-rise buildings permits intensive land use but causes population overcrowding in localities, at certain times of the day or week. this can result in drastic affects on open areas, streets and parks, and places excessive strain on the existing infrastructure, such as parking, roads, transport, sewerage, water and energy
How does bacteria duplication work?
if one breeds bacteria in a test tube they can double and double in number many times with no noticeable impact on their population until the test tube is half full and when they double again the test tube becomes full
What is the travel time in megacities?
the sheer size of many megacities means that it can take four hours to get around, and people in cities such as mexico or buenos aires may have to commute four or five hours a day to get to work
the concentration and compaction of high-rise buildings permits intensive land use but causes population overcrowding in localities, at certain times of the day or week. this can result in drastic affects on open areas, streets and parks, and places excessive strain on the existing infrastructure, such as parking, roads, transport, sewerage, water and energy. if one breeds bacteria in a test tube they can double and double in number many times with no noticeable impact on their population until the test tube is half full and when they double again the test tube becomes full. a single doubling incident becomes the point at which the habitat ceases to become viable as its capacity is exceeded. leon krier has referred to this as ' urban hypertrophy ' making the additional point that overloading any given urban centre tends to prevent the organic development of new healthy, mixed urban fabric anywhere beyond the centre. 21 bear in mind, too, that some of the sturdiest and even aesthetically pleasing tall buildings of the early twentieth century are only now approaching the end of their so-called ' design life ' what is their destiny? the worst offender in this urban destruction is the monofunctional megatower, which paradoxically has become an icon of modernity and progress. this issue has also been dealt with in chapter 7, in consideration of the effects on infrastructure and evacuation. the sheer size of many megacities means that it can take four hours to get around, and people in cities such as mexico or buenos aires may have to commute four or five hours a day to get to work. where cities are high rise the problem is exacerbated by the fact that every building may have hundreds or thousands of occupants who need to get to work and back at the same time. in s a o paulo, one of the great high-rise cities of the world, many parts of the city are impassable at various times of day. in response to this problem the rich have developed a new highway and have taken to the skies for their daily commute. the numbers of helicopters rose from 374 to 469 between 1999 and 2008, making it helicopter capital of the world ahead of new york or hong kong. 22 below in the streets it is often gridlocked, so creating two worlds of the rich and the poor. with brazil's booming oil economy this seems like a sensible development but what is one more free ebooks http://fast-file.blogspot.com
What is the purpose of this article?
the purpose of this article is to evaluate the existing literature on school climate and to bring to light the strengths, weakness, and gaps in the ways researchers have approached the construct
How did we summarize?
we summarize the strengths and limitations of the current work on school climate and make suggestions for future research directions
Into many sections did we organize the article?
the central information in this article is organized into five sections
the construct of school climate has received attention as a way to enhance student achievement and reduce problem behaviors. the purpose of this article is to evaluate the existing literature on school climate and to bring to light the strengths, weakness, and gaps in the ways researchers have approached the construct. the central information in this article is organized into five sections. in the first, we describe the theoretical frameworks to support the multidimensionality of school climate and how school climate impacts student outcomes. in the second, we provide a breakdown of the four domains that make up school climate, including academic, community, safety, and institutional environment. in the third, we examine research on the outcomes of school climate. in the fourth, we outline the measurement and analytic methods of the construct of school climate. finally, we summarize the strengths and limitations of the current work on school climate and make suggestions for future research directions. keywords school climate school environment measurement behavioral development socioemotional development academic performance school climate has been recognized as an opportunity to enhance student achievement and reduce problem behaviors and dropout rates. climate shapes the quality of the interactions of all students, teachers, parents, and school personnel, and reflects the norms, values, and goals that represent the broader educational and social missions of the school (national school climate council 2007 ). school climate represents virtually every aspect of the school experience, including the quality of teaching and learning, school community relationships, school organization, and the institutional and structural features of the school environment. thus, school is more than an academic learning context; it is also a place where children learn how to
What does JEV stand for and what type of virus is it?
the japanese encephalitis virus (jev), an arthropod-born flavivirus is the major cause of viral encephalitis, responsible for 10,000-15,000 deaths each year
Name the wild as well as the domestic amplifying hosts for the Japanese encephalitis virus.
the first involves wading birds as wild amplifying hosts; the second involves pigs as the main domestic amplifying hosts
What type of mosquito is considered to be the vector for the Japanese encephalitis virus?
culex mosquito species, especially cx. tritaeniorhynchus are the main competent vectors
the japanese encephalitis virus (jev), an arthropod-born flavivirus is the major cause of viral encephalitis, responsible for 10,000-15,000 deaths each year, yet is a neglected tropical disease. since the jev distribution area has been large and continuously extending toward new asian and australasian regions, it is considered an emerging and reemerging pathogen. despite large effective immunization campaigns, japanese encephalitis remains a disease of global health concern. jev zoonotic transmission cycles may be either wild or domestic: the first involves wading birds as wild amplifying hosts; the second involves pigs as the main domestic amplifying hosts. culex mosquito species, especially cx. tritaeniorhynchus are the main competent vectors. although five jev genotypes circulate, neither clear-cut genotype-phenotype relationship nor clear variations in genotype fitness to hosts or vectors have been identified. instead, the molecular epidemiology appears highly dependent on vectors, hosts' biology, and on a set of environmental factors. at global scale, climate, land cover, and land use, otherwise strongly dependent on human activities, affect the abundance of jev vectors, and of wild and domestic hosts. chiefly, the increase of rice-cultivated surface, intensively used by wading birds, and of pig production in asia has provided a high availability of resources to mosquito vectors, enhancing the jev maintenance, amplification, and transmission. at fine scale, the characteristics (density, size, spatial arrangement) of three landscape elements (paddy fields, pig farms, human habitations) facilitate or impede movement of vectors, then determine how the jev interacts with hosts and vectors and ultimately the infection risk to humans. if the jev is introduced in a favorable landscape, either by live infected animals or by vectors, then the virus can emerge and become a major threat for human health. multidisciplinary research is essential to shed light on the biological mechanisms involved in the emergence, spread, reemergence, and genotypic changes of jev.
What is the goal of Canada-China Cooperation in Climate Change (C5) Project, funded through the Canada Climate Change Development Fund ? )
increase the contribution of women to decisionmaking on climate change
How will this goal be accomplished?
by empowering them to participate equally in the development and implementation of climate-change-related policies and programmes, particularly within chinese government agencies and research institutions
What are the specific objectives of this initiative?
increase awareness of gender inequalities and support for women's full participation in decision-making and technical activities associated with climate change * increase the capacity to analyse gender equality issues relevant to the project and incorporate the results of the analysis into project activities * develop and implement appropriate targets for male/female participation in project activities
empowering women to participate equally in the development and implementation of climate-change-related policies and programmes in china a goal of the canada-china cooperation in climate change (c5) project, funded through the canada climate change development fund (cccdf) and administered by the canadian international development agency (cida), is to increase the contribution of women to decisionmaking on climate change by empowering them to participate equally in the development and implementation of climate-change-related policies and programmes, particularly within chinese government agencies and research institutions. specific objectives include: * increase awareness of gender inequalities and support for women's full participation in decision-making and technical activities associated with climate change * increase the capacity to analyse gender equality issues relevant to the project and incorporate the results of the analysis into project activities * develop and implement appropriate targets for male/female participation in project activities, based on sex-disaggregated baseline research; the minimum expectation is 30 percent participation by women; and * increase the awareness, abilities, self-confidence and motivation of women working
Where have the fossil assemblages analysed come from?
fossil localities regional setting the fossil assemblages analysed here are from outcrops of the okanagan highlands series of deposits, which extend from north-central washington state through the thompson- okanagan, cariboo, and bulkley valley regions of southern british columbia (fig. 1), of early eocene (ypresian) to early middle eocene (lutetian) age (fig. 2
What are the names of the eight outcrops considered here?
outcrops of eight regional depositional basins are considered here: republic in northeastern washington state, usa.; one mile creek (allenby formation), quilchena, falkland, mcabee, hat creek, horsefly, and driftwood canyon in british columbia, canada
fossil localities regional setting the fossil assemblages analysed here are from outcrops of the okanagan highlands series of deposits, which extend from north-central washington state through the thompson- okanagan, cariboo, and bulkley valley regions of southern british columbia (fig. 1), of early eocene (ypresian) to early middle eocene (lutetian) age (fig. 2). the sites therefore provide a north-south transect, extending in an  1000 km north-northwest line from a current latitude of 48deg40 ' n (republic) to 55degn (driftwood canyon). the majority of the sites are clustered in southern british columbia, spanning an area of  700 km2. outcrops of eight regional depositional basins are considered here: republic in northeastern washington state, usa.; one mile creek (allenby formation), quilchena, falkland, mcabee, hat creek, horsefly, and driftwood canyon in british columbia, canada. additional fossil sites are known, but are not considered here. site descriptions presented here are in part modified from wilson (1977 c ), wolfe and wehr (1987), douglas and stockey (1996), and stockey et al. (1998).
What measures are neccesary to predict the future impacts of climate change?
climatic variability and minimum thresholds
What is so important to examine the relationship and interactions between seasonality, measurament of resource fluctuatios, and different functional guilds?
to improve understanding of the mechanisms and likely impacts of increasing seasonality with climate change
our results highlight that it is necessary to include measures of climatic variability and minimum thresholds, and not rely on means and totals, in any predictive models estimating future impacts of climate change. it is important to examine the relationships and interactions between seasonality, measurements of resource fluctuations, and different functional guilds to improve understanding of the mechanisms and likely impacts of increasing seasonality with climate change (e.g. species that are leaf litter foragers vs. canopy foragers vs. frugivores). we need empirical measurements of the temporal variability in resource levels, environmental variables, and the dependent fauna. it will be important to examine the temporal time lags between resource changes and the biotic response. these results also make it clear that we need more studies on the interactions between primary productivity, energy, abundance, species richness, and climate in order to make more robust predictions about the impacts of future global climate change.
Define: chemical Reaction?
the rate of any chemical reaction increases with temperature, provided that this increase in temperature does not produce alterations in the reagents or in the catalyst. the biological reactions, within certain ranges, also present the same tendency to increase with temperature. however, there is an ideal temperature for the biological reactions, above which the rate decreases, possibly due to the destruction of enzymes at the higher temperatures (sawyer and mccarty, 1978; benefield and randall, 1980
Explain the theory of Want Hoff-Arrhenius?
a usual form to estimate the variation of the reaction rate as a function of temperature is through the formulation based on the van't hoff-arrhenius theory
the rate of any chemical reaction increases with temperature, provided that this increase in temperature does not produce alterations in the reagents or in the catalyst. the biological reactions, within certain ranges, also present the same tendency to increase with temperature. however, there is an ideal temperature for the biological reactions, above which the rate decreases, possibly due to the destruction of enzymes at the higher temperatures (sawyer and mccarty, 1978; benefield and randall, 1980). a usual form to estimate the variation of the reaction rate as a function of temperature is through the formulation based on the van't hoff-arrhenius theory, which can be expressed as: kt<s116>2 kt<s116>1 tht<s116>2- t<s116>1 (8.15) reaction kinetics and reactor hydraulics 327 where: kt<s116>2 reaction coefficient for temperature 2 kt<s116>1 reaction coefficient for temperature 1 th temperature coefficient even thought th is frequently treated as a constant, it can vary substantially, even inside a reduced temperature range (sawyer and mccarty, 1978). the values of th usually adopted for the corrections of various reactions involved in sewage treatment are presented in the relevant chapters of this book.
How is hazard defined in this paragraph?
an example for a fully qualified characterization of vulnerability according to this framework is 'current internal socioeconomic vulnerability of the livelihood of tibetan subsistence farmers to drought
How many stages are to the theoretical evolution of hazards research?
1) pure determinism, assuming that nature causes hazards; (2) a mechanistic engineering approach, emphasizing that technology can be used to reduce vulnerability and losses; (3) the human ecology approach, arguing that human behavior and perceptions were important; and (4) the political economy approach, arguing that structure not nature, technology, or agency creates vulnerability
What is the conceptual framework?
first of all, it allows to communicate clearly which interpretation of vulnerability is used in a specific assessment. second, it facilitates the discussion how and why different vulnerability concepts differ from each other. third, it provides a framework for reviewing existing terminologies and classifications of vulnerability
hazard. an example for a fully qualified characterization of vulnerability according to this framework is 'current internal socioeconomic vulnerability of the livelihood of tibetan subsistence farmers to drought'. since statements about vulnerability involving all six dimensions are rather cumbersome, in practice one will only specify those attributes that are not clear from the context. the florida-tibet example has shown, however, that each dimension may be relevant for clarifying what is meant by 'vulnerability' in a particular context. the conceptual framework of vulnerability presented here can be applied in various ways. first of all, it allows to communicate clearly which interpretation of vulnerability is used in a specific assessment. second, it facilitates the discussion how and why different vulnerability concepts differ from each other. third, it provides a framework for reviewing existing terminologies and classifications of vulnerability. examples for all these applications are provided in the next section. 3. application of the conceptual framework 3.1. classical approaches to vulnerability research the conceptualization of vulnerability varies significantly across research domains, and it has evolved over time. for instance, the theoretical evolution of hazards research is generally characterized by the following stages: (1) pure determinism, assuming that nature causes hazards; (2) a mechanistic engineering approach, emphasizing that technology can be used to reduce vulnerability and losses; (3) the human ecology approach, arguing that human behavior and perceptions were important; and (4) the political economy approach, arguing that structure not nature, technology, or agency creates vulnerability. for a more detailed review of the evolution of conceptual approaches to vulnerability research, the reader is referred to kasperson et al. (2005)
On what inter-center statistical comparisons are based on?
the inter-center statistical comparisons are based on differences of profile-to-profile pairs of bending angle, refractivity, dry temperature, dry pressure, and dry geopotential height profiles
How PPC pairs were first obtained?
the ppc pairs were first obtained by matching the profiles produced by all six centers. each center supplied champ processed profiles from january 2002 to august 2008 in a common netcdf file format
Define occultation time and occulting GPS satellite identifiers?
the occultation time and occulting gps satellite identifiers from each profile were then compared with a database of all geometrically possible occultations to obtain standard occultation times
the inter-center statistical comparisons are based on differences of profile-to-profile pairs of bending angle, refractivity, dry temperature, dry pressure, and dry geopotential height profiles. the ppc pairs were first obtained by matching the profiles produced by all six centers. each center supplied champ processed profiles from january 2002 to august 2008 in a common netcdf file format. the occultation time and occulting gps satellite identifiers from each profile were then compared with a database of all geometrically possible occultations to obtain standard occultation times. the provided profile files from each center were then given canonical names using the standard occultation times. only high-quality profiles from individual centers that passed their quality controls (qcs) (see section a7) for all retrieved variables are included in the common ppc files. this matching was done within a 5-min time window for occultations using the same gps satellite. in this way the profile files from all centers were matched and assigned common occultation identifiers. all the centers provided their ro data products on a fixed vertical altitude grid of 200 m from 8 km to 30 km. it should be noted that this does not imply that profiles from all
What do most resource management efforts tend to be?
remarkably similar over broad temporal scales, which are punctuated by relatively rapid paradigm shifts
What are these shifts accompanied by?
relatively little or no attention to monitoring and comparison across both spatial and temporal scales
How do future changes in management occur?
only with the arrival of additional crises
first, successfully implementing adaptive management involves overcoming the tendency in more traditional resource management to focus on temporal rather than spatial variation in policy treatments. most resource management efforts tend to be remarkably similar over broad temporal scales, which are punctuated by relatively rapid paradigm shifts. these shifts are accompanied by relatively little or no attention to monitoring and comparison across both spatial and temporal scales. subsequently, future changes in management occur only with the arrival of additional crises. the world bank, for example, has gone from neglect of forest issues to front lining them in the early 1990s (wade 1997), only to neglect them again in more recent years. as
What is offered by policy network approaches?
policy network approaches offer a promising starting point for considering the dynamics of convergence
By what are the various policy networks linked?
further, the various policy networks are linked by different types of 'glue', including resource dependencies, values and beliefs, storylines, and knowledge (haas, 1992; hajer, 1995; marsh and rhodes, 1992b; sabatier and jenkins smith, 1993
What is the concept of policy network like?
the concept of a policy network is, of course, a broad one: there are many different kinds of networks, some tightly defined and exclusive (e.g. the policy communities identified in 1970s britain by richardson and jordan (1979)) and some much looser (e.g. heclo's issue networks, sabatier's advocacy and hajer's discourse coalitions (hajer, 1995; heclo, 1974; sabatier and jenkins smith, 1993
policy network approaches offer a promising starting point for considering the dynamics of convergence. the concept of a policy network is, of course, a broad one: there are many different kinds of networks, some tightly defined and exclusive (e.g. the policy communities identified in 1970s britain by richardson and jordan (1979)) and some much looser (e.g. heclo's issue networks, sabatier's advocacy and hajer's discourse coalitions (hajer, 1995; heclo, 1974; sabatier and jenkins smith, 1993)). further, the various policy networks are linked by different types of 'glue', including resource dependencies, values and beliefs, storylines, and knowledge (haas, 1992; hajer, 1995; marsh and rhodes, 1992b; sabatier and jenkins smith, 1993). however, despite the potential for network members to be dispersed across multiple policy sectors, even the more flexible, open networks are still seen as operating within the boundaries of particular policy domains (see, for further discussion, marsh and rhodes, 1992b; also richardson, 2000; richardson and jordan, 1979), as richardson (2000, emphasis added: 1008) describes:
Which references the reported scientific study contained ?
the issue of adaptation was raised despite the fact that the reported scientific study contained no such reference
How was issued the press released by NASA ?
nasa's19goddard space flight center issued a press release headed 'recent warming of arctic may affect worldwide climate
Could this have any effect on the Artic region ?
a sustained warming of the magnitude observed would cause profound changes in the arctic region
in addition to an uncertain science frame within item 20, the issue of adaptation was raised despite the fact that the reported scientific study contained no such reference. nasa's19goddard space flight center issued a press release headed 'recent warming of arctic may affect worldwide climate' (23 october 2003) that presented a study published by josefino comiso in the journal of climate in the conclusion of this journal article, comiso noted, among other findings, that 'a sustained warming of the magnitude observed would cause profound changes in the arctic region, especially in the sea ice cover, parts of the greenland ice sheet, the permafrost, glaciers, and snow cover over northern eurasia and north america' (p. 3509). nasa's press release included an explanation by david rind, of nasa's goddard institute for space studies, of the correlated positive feedback processes: '[t]hawing arctic soils may release significant amounts of [co2] and [ch4] now trapped in permafrost, and slightly warmer ocean water could release frozen natural gases in the sea floor, all of which act as greenhouse gases in the atmosphere'. this research received coverage from 10 newspapers and the following three wire/news service agencies: cox news service (cox), scripps howard news service (scripps howard), and the ap. the cox article 'dramatic drop in arctic ice documented' (23 october 2003) was an early release of an article by the atlanta journal-constitution .20
What are the three common approaches to reacting to climate change impacts?
many kinds of ecosystem responses to climate change have been studied in controlled experiments and/or are represented in detailed mechanistic models. others are known only qualitatively, often using historical observations or space for time substitutions
Tell about the basic idea of Hybrid approach?
the basic idea of the hybrid approach is extending formal simulation results with a conceptual framework for integrating poorly known but potentially important mechanisms
What are the adaptation strategies?
matthews keith (2) use a probabilistic coupled climate-carbon model to conclude that ecosystem feedbacks increase the risk of extreme warming. the weakness of the mechanistic modeling approach is it misses the potentially large effects of processes not represented in the models. the main weakness of the vulnerability studies is that they provide limited guidance on pathways for improving understanding
the fundamental challenge of assessing climate feedbacks from ecosystem responses to climate change is finding a useful way to integrate factors and processes characterized by very different levels of understanding. many kinds of ecosystem responses to climate change have been studied in controlled experiments and/or are represented in detailed mechanistic models. others are known only qualitatively, often using historical observations or space for time substitutions. still others are based on known or strongly suspected mechanisms but have not been observed or simulated. interactions among processes of all these types, plus feedbacks of these processes to influence the amount of climate change, have the potential to further complicate the situation. past approaches have addressed the knowledge heterogeneity problem in two main ways. most mechanistic models have focused on the best-known mechanisms, avoiding poorly understood processes and feedbacks. in contrast, vulnerability studies (157) tend to use simple formulations that do not attempt to explicitly represent the full range of processes and feedbacks but that attempt to capture their effects through varying key model parameters over appropriate ranges. some probabilistic models combine elements of both approaches. for example, matthews keith (2) use a probabilistic coupled climate-carbon model to conclude that ecosystem feedbacks increase the risk of extreme warming. the weakness of the mechanistic modeling approach is it misses the potentially large effects of processes not represented in the models. the main weakness of the vulnerability studies is that they provide limited guidance on pathways for improving understanding. we believe a hybrid approach can add value, enhancing capacity for assessing possible impacts of poorly known processes and, as a consequence, enhancing capacity for understanding both integrated ecosystem responses and their feedbacks to climate change. the basic idea of the hybrid approach is extending formal simulation results with a conceptual framework for integrating poorly known but potentially important mechanisms. in many cases, there may be sufficient information to estimate the forcing at which a poorly known mechanism activates and to estimate its impact when forcing is high, medium, or low. in some cases, a conceptual synthesis of the literature may be a sufficient foundation for this kind of assessment (106). in others, expert elicitation (158) or a formal meta-analysis (159) may be more useful. here, we emphasize the first approach, building on the studies
is the world getting warmer due to climate change?
it is not yet clear whether the planet as a whole warmed and cooled during abrupt climate changes. if it did not then it makes sense to look for causes purely in changes in atmosphere and ocean circulations and heat transports. however, if the global mean temperature also changed then the circulation must have interacted with water vapor and/or clouds such that changes in greenhouse trapping and/or albedo allowed the planet to equilibrate with the incoming solar radiation at a different temperature. changes in sea ice can also change the global mean temperature but have a lesser impact on planetary albedo than clouds because sea ice is most prevalent in locations and seasons with little solar radiation to reflect. only improved temperature reconstructions from the tropics and southern mid-latitudes during times of abrupt changes will allow us to know if these were associated with planetary warming and cooling
is the world getting cooler due to climate change?
it is not yet clear whether the planet as a whole warmed and cooled during abrupt climate changes. if it did not then it makes sense to look for causes purely in changes in atmosphere and ocean circulations and heat transports. however, if the global mean temperature also changed then the circulation must have interacted with water vapor and/or clouds such that changes in greenhouse trapping and/or albedo allowed the planet to equilibrate with the incoming solar radiation at a different temperature. changes in sea ice can also change the global mean temperature but have a lesser impact on planetary albedo than clouds because sea ice is most prevalent in locations and seasons with little solar radiation to reflect. only improved temperature reconstructions from the tropics and southern mid-latitudes during times of abrupt changes will allow us to know if these were associated with planetary warming and cooling
is the tropics being affect by the melting  polar caps?
it is not yet clear whether the planet as a whole warmed and cooled during abrupt climate changes. if it did not then it makes sense to look for causes purely in changes in atmosphere and ocean circulations and heat transports. however, if the global mean temperature also changed then the circulation must have interacted with water vapor and/or clouds such that changes in greenhouse trapping and/or albedo allowed the planet to equilibrate with the incoming solar radiation at a different temperature. changes in sea ice can also change the global mean temperature but have a lesser impact on planetary albedo than clouds because sea ice is most prevalent in locations and seasons with little solar radiation to reflect. only improved temperature reconstructions from the tropics and southern mid-latitudes during times of abrupt changes will allow us to know if these were associated with planetary warming and cooling
it is not yet clear whether the planet as a whole warmed and cooled during abrupt climate changes. if it did not then it makes sense to look for causes purely in changes in atmosphere and ocean circulations and heat transports. however, if the global mean temperature also changed then the circulation must have interacted with water vapor and/or clouds such that changes in greenhouse trapping and/or albedo allowed the planet to equilibrate with the incoming solar radiation at a different temperature. changes in sea ice can also change the global mean temperature but have a lesser impact on planetary albedo than clouds because sea ice is most prevalent in locations and seasons with little solar radiation to reflect. only improved temperature reconstructions from the tropics and southern mid-latitudes during times of abrupt changes will allow us to know if these were associated with planetary warming and cooling.
How many flying squirrels were profiled?
we profiled 271 flying squirrels, of which 153 and 118 were identified in the field as g. sabrinus and g. volans respectively. these totals include the few squirrels where ambiguous morphological characteristics rendered the field identifications provisional
According to the results, how many species-specific alleles did each locus contain?
each locus contained between one and six species-specific alleles
What was the mean of alleles per locus?
there were a total of 69 alleles from the five loci with a mean of 14 alleles per locus (range 11-19
we profiled 271 flying squirrels, of which 153 and 118 were identified in the field as g. sabrinus and g. volans respectively. these totals include the few squirrels where ambiguous morphological characteristics rendered the field identifications provisional. of the nine microsatellite loci screened in both g. sabrinus and g. volans five loci amplified diagnosable microsatellite alleles in both species (sfs3 and sfs15 (fokidis et al ., 2003); gs4, gs8, and gs10 (zittlau et al ., 2000)). there were a total of 69 alleles from the five loci with a mean of 14 alleles per locus (range 11-19). each locus contained between one and six species-specific alleles. there was no evidence of deviation from le or hwe after bonferroni corrections for multiple tests p o 0.05) with species and sample sites considered separately.
What are some of the expected direct effects when from the climate and ecosystem trajectories deviating significantly from natural vari ability over time?
as climate and ecosystem trajectories deviate significantly from natural vari ability over time, direct effects are expected on species and ecosystems. species migrations, changes in vegetation and faunal assemblages, and altered watershed condition are anticipated
What is important for longterm projects?
because uncertainty about climate change effects increases several decades into the future, risk assessment and uncertainty analyses are especially important for long-term projects
What are win-win adaptation options?
win-win adaptation options are actions that provide benefits to many resources affected by climate change, and confer benefits for non-climate reasons
as climate and ecosystem trajectories deviate significantly from natural vari ability over time, direct effects are expected on species and ecosystems. species migrations, changes in vegetation and faunal assemblages, and altered watershed condition are anticipated. this suggests that it may be necessary to shift priorities to anticipate which effects might accrue in the future, minimize disruptive ecologi cal conversions, and guide transitions to desired new ecological functions (box 16). because uncertainty about climate change effects increases several decades into the future, risk assessment and uncertainty analyses are especially important for long-term projects (e.g., turner et al. 2003). many tools and guides are available to help rank projects and actions (ipcc 2001, moser and luers 2008). as noted above, implementing no-regrets adaptation actions is usually a priority because these practices benefit resources regardless of future climate. related to this are low-regrets adaptation options which include situations for which project costs are relatively low, project effectiveness is high even given future uncertainties, and anticipated benefits are potentially high under anticipated future climate. win-win adaptation options are actions that provide benefits to many resources affected by climate change, and confer benefits for non-climate reasons. in all cases, these imply situations in which actions might be proposed. for exam ple, actions proposed to reduce fire severity, restore watershed health, or improve forest productivity can also facilitate adaptation to climate change. climate-related projects can sometimes be implemented by "piggy-backing" them with other high-ranking projects. for example, if fuel reduction projects are a high priority, and budgets are available to implement them in the wildland-urban interface, then climate-focused projects that coincide with targeted forest types and locations in the interface can be implemented concurrently. triage is another systematic approach to setting priorities (millar et al. 2007, mitchell 2008, yohe 2000) (fig. 9). often misinterpreted as a reaction to crisis, tri age is a process-based approach to treating emergency situations in which capacity to respond adequately is less than the immediate need. projects are sorted into categories based on their need for immediate attention, urgency of condition, capac ity for treatment to be implemented (budget, staff, skill), and likelihood of success given available capacity. a weighting factor can be added, or projects of similar value can be evaluated in separate triage exercises. collaborative approaches for ranking and priority setting are useful when values differ among parties interested in a particular issue, uncertainties are high, outcomes could be interpreted differently by different stakeholders, and treatments
What are Aerosol forcings?
aerosol forcings are substantially a result of fossil fuel burning [1,76], but the net aerosol forcing is a sensitive function of various aerosol sources
How to counteract the global warming?
a concerted effort to reduce non-co2 forcings by methane, tropospheric ozone, other trace gases, and black soot might counteract the warming from a decline in reflective aerosols
Describe the indirect aerosol effect on clouds?
the indirect aerosol effect on clouds is nonlinear [1,76] such that it has been suggested that even the modest aerosol amounts added by pre-industrial humans to an otherwise pristine atmosphere may have caused a significant climate forcing
if the only human-made climate forcing were changes of atmospheric co2, the appropriate co2 target might be close to the pre-industrial co2 amount however, there are other human forcings, including aerosols, the effect of aerosols on clouds, non-co2 greenhouse gases, and changes of surface albedo that will not disappear even if fossil fuel burning is phased out. aerosol forcings are substantially a result of fossil fuel burning [1,76], but the net aerosol forcing is a sensitive function of various aerosol sources the indirect aerosol effect on clouds is nonlinear [1,76] such that it has been suggested that even the modest aerosol amounts added by pre-industrial humans to an otherwise pristine atmosphere may have caused a significant climate forcing thus continued precise monitoring of earth's radiation imbalance is probably the best way to assess and adjust the appropriate co2 target. ironically, future reductions of particulate air pollution may exacerbate global warming by reducing the cooling effect of reflective aerosols. however, a concerted effort to reduce non-co2 forcings by methane, tropospheric ozone, other trace gases, and black soot might counteract the warming from a decline in reflective aerosols [54,75]. our calculations below of future global temperature assume such compensation, as a first approximation. to the extent that goal is not achieved, adjustments must be made in the co2 target or future warming may exceed calculated values.
Uncertainties can be accounted for by using what?
ensemble techniques, permitting quantitative probabilistic forecasts
The seasonal forecasts of what show the predictable component is sometimes lower in models than observations?
north atlantic oscillation and multiyear forecasts of north atlantic temperature and pressure
What word describes the forecasts?
undercon fi dent
seasonal-to-decadal predictions are inevitably uncertain, depending on the size of the predictable signal relative to unpredictable chaos. uncertainties can be accounted for using ensemble techniques, permitting quantitative probabilistic forecasts. in a perfect system, each ensemble member would represent a potential realization of the true evolution of the climate system, and the predictable components in models and reality would be equal. however, we show that the predictable component is sometimes lower in models than observations, especially for seasonal forecasts of the north atlantic oscillation and multiyear forecasts of north atlantic temperature and pressure. in these cases the forecasts are undercon fi dent, with each ensemble member containing too much noise. consequently, most deterministic and probabilistic measures underestimate potential skill and idealized model experiments underestimate predictability. however, skilful and reliable predictions may be achieved using a large ensemble to reduce noise and adjusting the forecast variance through a postprocessing technique proposed here.
what does The regression forcing do ?
the regression forcing follows a similar pattern to the stratosphereadjusted forcing, being positive everywhere with a maximum near the equator and minima at the poles
how did The feedback parameters calculate?
the feedback parameters and the equilibrium partial temperature changes for the 2 3 co2 cmip3 experiments, as calculated from the stratosphereadjusted forcing (where available) and the mean equilibrium radiative flux and surface temperature changes, showed a similar zonal mean pattern to those calculated by regression
how did The annual mean forcing determine ?
the annual mean forcing determined by regression and the archived stratosphere-adjusted forcing
the annual mean forcing determined by regression and the archived stratosphere-adjusted forcing, where available, are shown for each model in fig. 2. the regression forcing follows a similar pattern to the stratosphereadjusted forcing, being positive everywhere with a maximum near the equator and minima at the poles. the stratosphere-adjusted forcing is mostly within plus/minus two standard deviations of the regression forcing, but we would expect differences owing to rapid tropospheric adjustments. the feedback parameters and the equilibrium partial temperature changes for the 2 3 co2 cmip3 experiments, as calculated from the stratosphereadjusted forcing (where available) and the mean equilibrium radiative flux and surface temperature changes, showed a similar zonal mean pattern to those calculated by regression. the differences between the two methods are significant in a small number of latitudes, particularly for the cloud-related components, but the feedback parameters and equilibrium partial temperature changes from the stratosphere-adjusted forcing are generally within plus/minus two standard deviations of those calculated using fregr (not shown). our global mean regressions give very similar results to those of gregory and webb (2008) and andrews and forster (2008), who show there
What was the type of treatment that significantly reduced soil moisture?
drought treatment significantly reduced soil moisture when compared to control stands
This effect appeared at what times of the year?
in autumn and spring-summer
drought treatment significantly reduced soil moisture when compared to control stands (table 1). this effect appeared several months after the start of the experiment, and it was particularly noteworthy in autumn and spring-summer, when the waterproof covers were active and the seedling establishment was greatest (lloret, 1998). there was an important interyear variability in the effect of the drought on soil moisture, and this was particularly great in the autumns of 2000 and 2001. soil moisture was not significantly reduced by the coverage of the warming stands (table 1), but it was lower than in controls in several months. although warming coverage was only active at night, the effect
What's the main advantage of the proposed method for calculating global MCF decay rate?
we find our method to be much less sensitive to site selection and methods for filling missing data
Does the proposed method gives different results from that of Montzka et al. ?
our global mean decay rates and their anomalies are, nevertheless, very similar, as shown in figure s1
What's the most likely cause of the somewhat larger discrepancy in results coming from data before 2000?
due to more frequent data gaps in the early period
our method for calculating the global mcf decay rate differs from that of montzka et al. (2011). montzka et al. first constructed a global mean tropospheric mcf abundance from a weighted average of the sites, then calculated the global decay rate using the same formula we have applied to each site individually. we find our method to be much less sensitive to site selection and methods for filling missing data, but our global mean decay rates and their anomalies are, nevertheless, very similar, as shown in figure s1. differences are always less than 1% after 2000, but are as large as 2% in early 1998, due to more frequent data gaps in the early period.
Define Ecological Studies?
ecological studies vol 193,page proofs as of 9/15,2006,by kroner,heidelberg ecological studies vol 193,page proofs as of 9/15,2006,by kroner,heidelberg bance) of these communities
Explain Disturbance?
disturbance is a crucial mechanism in mediating the establishment, persistence and dramatic expansion (explosion in numbers) of invasive alien species (hence, ecosystem invasion; brooks et al. 2004
Mention the concern of an emerging concept,?
this is the concern of an emerging concept, that of "novel ecosystems" (hobbs et al. 2006), which we discuss below within a climate change context. we first review the current knowledge of the potential synergies between climate change and invasive alien species,and then provide some perspectives and areas of research needed to manage biological invasions in the face of climate change
ecological studies vol 193,page proofs as of 9/15,2006,by kroner,heidelberg ecological studies vol 193,page proofs as of 9/15,2006,by kroner,heidelberg bance) of these communities. disturbance is a crucial mechanism in mediating the establishment, persistence and dramatic expansion (explosion in numbers) of invasive alien species (hence, ecosystem invasion; brooks et al. 2004). additionally, these new communities and ecosystems will have unknown properties,including the likely presence of species which exhibit all the traits of invasive alien species.this is the concern of an emerging concept, that of "novel ecosystems" (hobbs et al. 2006), which we discuss below within a climate change context. we first review the current knowledge of the potential synergies between climate change and invasive alien species,and then provide some perspectives and areas of research needed to manage biological invasions in the face of climate change.
What is the difference between a household who farms and raises animals and a household who only farms?
a household who farms and raises animals is less vulnerable than a household who only farms
What are the primary and secondary administrative unit in Mozambique?
provinces are the primary administrative unit and districts are the secondary administrative unit in mozambique
Who is reponsible?
global environmental change
some indicators such as the livelihood diversity index were created because an increase in the crude indicator, in this case, the number of livelihood activities undertaken by a household, decreases vulnerability (e.g., a household who farms and raises animals is less vulnerable than a household who only farms) so by taking the inverse of the crude indicator, we create a number that reflects this line of reasoning and assigns higher values to households with a lower number of livelihood activities. b provinces are the primary administrative unit and districts are the secondary administrative unit in mozambique. m.b. hahn et al. global environmental change 19 (2009) 74-88 79
Which framework involves in presenting quantitative estimates of the risks that climate change poses to health?
the comparative risk assessment framework is a potentially useful approach to presenting policy-relevant quantitative estimates of the risks that climate change poses to health, at both the global and the national level
Which assessments provide highest level of spacial resolutions to take administrative decisions?
national assessments can provide the highest level of spatial resolution and hence the opportunity to quantify variation in risk between administrative divisions. they can also be useful to focus political and community awareness on what is now increasingly recognized as a serious public health issue
the comparative risk assessment framework is a potentially useful approach to presenting policy-relevant quantitative estimates of the risks that climate change poses to health, at both the global and the national level. in presenting these findings to decision makers, it is important to make clear the limitations of these assessments: quantitative estimates are unavoidably uncertain, changes in nonclimatic factors will influence both the baseline rates of disease and their sensitivity to climate effects, and many of the mechanisms by which climate change may affect health are not currently modeled, likely leading to an underestimation rather than an overestimation of health threats. given limited public health resources in many countries for risk assessments, it is important to reduce duplication in this work. global assessments capture the scale of the future climate-change-related disease burden and highlight regions most at risk for particular health outcomes. this can provide a prompt for specialized regional assessments, which in many regions may give enough accurate information to use at the national level--particularly if countries within the region share similar climatic and economic conditions (e.g., estimated mosquito-borne disease burden in countries with equivalent risks and control programs). national assessments can provide the highest level of spatial resolution and hence the opportunity to quantify variation in risk between administrative divisions. they can also be useful to focus political and community awareness on what is now increasingly recognized as a serious public health issue.
What is the method presented?
models that agree poorly with observations for a selected set of diagnostics get less weight and models that largely duplicate existing models also get less weight
What are the limitations of this method?
this method is limited to weighting maps or time series and does not straightforwardly apply to other methods for making projections
What are the subjective choices of the weighting schemes?
any weighting scheme inevitably requires making important and subjective choices on the distance metric, its conversion into weight, diagnostics and observations (including their uncertainties) to be used, and the relative importance of the different diagnostics
the basic idea of the method presented here is simple: models that agree poorly with observations for a selected set of diagnostics get less weight and models that largely duplicate existing models also get less weight. the proposed scheme therefore extends previous approaches on weighting multimodel projections of for example, sea ice massonnet et al ., 2012] or stratospheric ozone waugh and eyring 2008] by additionally considering model interdependence. note that this method is limited to weighting maps or time series and does not straightforwardly apply to other methods for making projections. any weighting scheme inevitably requires making important and subjective choices on the distance metric, its conversion into weight, diagnostics and observations (including their uncertainties) to be used, and the relative importance of the different diagnostics. some of these choices are not straightforward at all and need to be de fi ned and assessed speci fi cally for each application. the weighting fi rst requires de fi ning a distance metric di of model i to observations, and sij, the distance metric between model i and model j and a relationship to convert those into a weight. both di and sij are evaluated in our example as root-mean-square differences, but other metrics are also possible. for m models in the ensemble, the single model weight wi for model i is de fi ned as follows: wi  1/4  e 
How do groundwater resources relate to climate change?
groundwater resources are related to climate change indirectly through the process of recharge, and directly through the interaction with surface water bodies such as rivers and lakes
What kind of approach may contribute towards quantifying the impact of climate change on groundwater resources?
quantifying the impact of climate change on groundwater resources requires a physically based approach for estimating groundwater recharge that includes all of the important processes in the hydrologic cycle, such as infiltration, surface runoff, evapotranspiration, and snowmelt
What did the results of the study reveal regarding climate change?
in addition to the temporal impacts, the results of the study also demonstrated how the spatial impact of climate change can be quantified effectively using the developed methodology, even for large regional scale watersheds. the results showed how groundwater recharge varied considerably across the grand river watershed, responding directly to variations in land use and the hydraulic characteristics of the underlying soils
understanding the impact of potential changes in the hydrologic cycle in response to climate change is essential for ensuring the quality and sustainability of our water resources in the future. while the temporal aspects of climate change influence long-term water resource planning and management, quantifying the spatial impact is critical not only for the protection of the underlying groundwater resources, but also in the context of land use allocation and development. groundwater resources are related to climate change indirectly through the process of recharge, and directly through the interaction with surface water bodies such as rivers and lakes. the process of groundwater recharge is not only influenced by the spatial and temporal variability in the major climate variables, but is also dependent on the spatial distribution of land-surface properties and the depth and hydraulic properties of the underlying soils. quantifying the impact of climate change on groundwater resources requires a physically based approach for estimating groundwater recharge that includes all of the important processes in the hydrologic cycle, such as infiltration, surface runoff, evapotranspiration, and snowmelt. in this study, the hydrologic model help3 schroeder et al., 1994) was used to estimate the response of groundwater recharge to potential climate change in the grand river watershed in ontario, canada. the impact of climate change was modelled by perturbing the help3 model input parameters using potential changes in the climate of the grand river watershed as predicted by the ipcc (2001) various climate change scenarios were constructed to simulate future impact in the hydrologic cycle using 40 years of actual historical weather data as a reference. based on the results of this study, climate change may potentially have both positive and negative impacts on the hydrology of the grand river watershed. the help3 simulation results indicated that increasing precipitation will generally lead to increases in surface runoff, evapotranspiration and groundwater recharge. increasing temperature due to global warming, on the other hand, allowed precipitation to fall as rain rather than snow, thereby reducing the amount the water stored in the snowpack and decreasing surface runoff in the spring. warmer winter temperatures reduced the amount of ground frost and allowed more water to infiltrate into the ground, resulting in increased groundwater recharge. on average, the potential recharge rate for the watershed was estimated to increase by approximately 100 mm/year, from 189 mm/year to 289 mm/year, over 40 years (under climate scenario 8). in addition to the temporal impacts, the results of the study also demonstrated how the spatial impact of climate change can be quantified effectively using the developed methodology, even for large regional scale watersheds. the results showed how groundwater recharge varied considerably across the grand river watershed, responding directly to variations in land use and the hydraulic characteristics of the underlying soils. certain areas of the watershed will be subjected to greater changes in recharge rates, while others will experience lesser change. delineating the spatial impact is valuable not only in the context of groundwater resource protection, but also for general land use management in the watershed. the help model itself has been extensively tested under various conditions and successfully compared to other hydrologic models. as demonstrated by this study, the main advantage of the model is that it can be easily applied to heterogeneous soil columns with physically based boundary conditions, to quantify in detail the influence of climate change on groundwater recourses.
what were the analyzes of the impacts of national policies carried out?
much analysis of the impact of national policies such as cap-and-trade or carbon taxes, along with regulatory options, has been undertaken
why is it difficult to induce countries to join an international agreement with significant emission reductions?
the fundamental reason is the strong incentives for free-riding in current international climate agreements. free-riding occurs when a party receives the benefits of a public good without contributing to the costs
what is the consequence generated by the current generation?
to this is added temporal free-riding when the present generation benefits from enjoying the consumption benefits of high carbon emissions, while future generations pay for those emissions in lower consumption or a degraded environment. the result
a. free-riding and the westphalian system subject to many deep uncertainties, scientists and economists have developed an extensive understanding of the science, technologies, and policies involved in climate change and reducing emissions. much analysis of the impact of national policies such as cap-and-trade or carbon taxes, along with regulatory options, has been undertaken. notwithstanding this progress, it has up to now proven difficult to induce countries to join in an international agreement with significant reductions in emissions. the fundamental reason is the strong incentives for free-riding in current international climate agreements. free-riding occurs when a party receives the benefits of a public good without contributing to the costs. in the case of the international climate-change policy, countries have an incentive to rely on the emissions reductions of others without taking proportionate domestic abatement. to this is added temporal free-riding when the present generation benefits from enjoying the consumption benefits of high carbon emissions, while future generations pay for those emissions in lower consumption or a degraded environment. the result
Which are The Milankovitch hypothesis now seems to encompass two distinct ideas?
1) the ''simple'' hypothesis, growing out of hays et al. (1976), that much of climate variability occurs in the frequency bands dominating the temporal variation of solar insolation. (2) the ''nonlinear'' hypothesis which recognizes that much of the energy in low frequency climate change occurs at periods around 100 ky, where the insolation forcing is very weak
What does Milankovitch's first hypothesis say?
the ''simple'' hypothesis, growing out of hays et al. (1976), that much of climate variability occurs in the frequency bands dominating the temporal variation of solar insolation
What does Milankovitch's second hypothesis say?
2) the ''nonlinear'' hypothesis which recognizes that much of the energy in low frequency climate change occurs at periods around 100 ky, where the insolation forcing is very weak
much of climate change study has been framed by the appearance of milankovitch periodicities in spectral estimates of deep-sea and other cores. beginning with the classical paper of hays et al. (1976), great effort has been directed to studying ''cyclicities'' in apparent climate change, either at the milankovitch periods or otherwise (e.g., chapman and shackleton 2000). although the term ''cyclicity'' is not recognized by the oxford english dictionary, its context seems to imply climate changes approaching, if not identical to, a periodic process. the milankovitch hypothesis now seems to encompass two distinct ideas: (1) the ''simple'' hypothesis, growing out of hays et al. (1976), that much of climate variability occurs in the frequency bands dominating the temporal variation of solar insolation. (2) the ''nonlinear'' hypothesis which recognizes that much of the energy in low frequency climate change occurs at periods around 100 ky, where the insolation forcing is very weak. one thus invokes the idea of the higher frequency milankovitch forcing as a ''pacemaker'', controlling the 100 ky band through what is a necessarily non-linear mechanism. the general possibility, not restricted to milankovitch time scales, of the existence of pure frequencies in climate is an interesting and important phenomenon. two separate issues arise: do such periodicities exist, and do they explain climate change? ''explain'' is used in the sense of the percentage of the climate change variance attributable to this forcing and response: if true periodicities account for 95% of observed climate change variance, one has a very different system than one in which they account for only 5%. in the latter case, their presence is a useful tool for understanding climate change, but it is not an explanation of the major physics. in the modern system, where there is some understanding of variability extending from periods of a few hundred years (from a few atmospheric temperature and pressure records) down to seconds and shorter, truly periodic motions are very exceptional. apart from the ordinary tides, which are the high frequency gravitational counterpart of the milankovitch forcing, almost no periodic motions are observed. even the massive diurnal solar forcing of the system produces a periodic response e.g., in the wind field, which is a small fraction of the total variance. the equally massive forcing by the seasonal cycle is almost impossible to detect, e.g., in the ocean, in any physical variable below about 300 m depth. spectra of the southern oscillation index show (wunsch 1999) a broadband character, unlike anything that might be regarded as periodic. (''broadband'' and
What is the ratio of carbon dioxide in the almosphere?
a doubling of the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere
What is the results of the working group reports ?
the working group reports, but does not emphasize, the 95th percentile results. for dice in particular, those results are a measure of the potential impact
the climate sensitivity parameter is the long-term temperature increase expected from a doubling of the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. this crucial parameter, which measures the pace of global warming, remains uncertain, and there are reasons to believe that significant uncertainty about climate sensitivity is inescapable (roe and baker 2007). on this topic, the working group analysis is impressively thorough. they discuss the scientific evidence on likely values of climate sensitivity, and adopt a probability distribution which assumes a two-thirds probability that climate sensitivity is between 2.0degc and 4.5degc. the minimum is zero and the maximum is 10degc; the distribution has a median of 3.0degc and a 95th percentile of 7.14degc. they then perform a monte carlo analysis, repeatedly selecting a climate sensitivity value from this probability distribution. in page and fund, there are numerous other monte carlo variables, representing other uncertainties; in dice, normally a deterministic model, climate sensitivity is the only monte carlo variable in the working group analysis. the working group reports, but does not emphasize, the 95th percentile results. for dice in particular, those results are a measure of the potential impact
What are used as candidates?
temperature and potential evaporation are used as the candidates of climatic explanatory variables
What are considered?
four indices, i.e. population, gross domestic product, irrigated area, and cultivated land area are considered
How are they used?
these factors are all important indices for the alterations of land use and land cover of catchment by human activities especially in the fast developing countries like china
s 0 yang et al., 2007 roderick and farquhar, 2011; patterson et al., 2013 ). to reveal the impact of climate change on the parameter w in each budyko-type equation, the mean annual precipitation, temperature and potential evaporation are used as the candidates of climatic explanatory variables. in order to quantify the impact of human activities on the annual runoff of the weihe river, four indices, i.e. population, gross domestic product, irrigated area, and cultivated land area are considered. these factors are all important indices for the alterations of land use and land cover of catchment by human activities especially in the fast developing countries like china, and have been employed to assess the impact of human activities on runoff wang and hejazi, 2011; chen et al., 2014 ). corresponding to the time scale of hydrological data, the means of the population, gross domestic product, cultivated land area, and irrigated area in each of 11-year moving windows are used as the candidates of human explanatory variables for describing w and denoted by pop gdp
What is projected rise of average tempurature,  as summarized in the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)?
global average temperature could rise by 1.4-5.8degc between 1990 and 2100
Due to our northern latitude and large landmass, Which country is projected to experience greater rates of warming than many other regions of the world -- by some estimates, more than double the global average.
due to our northern latitude and large landmass, canada is projected to experience greater rates of warming than many other regions of the world -- by some estimates, more than double the global average
climate scenarios are used to project how climate may change in the future. these projections are not predictions of what will happen, but instead represent one of any number of plausible futures. current projections, as summarized in the third assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc), suggest that global average temperature could rise by 1.4-5.8degc between 1990 and 2100 (figure 3; reference 3). due to our northern latitude and large landmass, canada is projected to experience greater rates of warming than many other regions of the world -- by some estimates, more than double the global average. changes in climate would be variable across the country, with the arctic and the southern and central prairies projected to warm the most (figure 4).
what are the conditions to to prevent micronutrient malnutrition?
programs to prevent micronutrient malnutrition have been shown to be most successful when two conditions are ensured: (1) fortified staple foods are made widely available in the community (i.e., influencing place) and (2) promotional efforts are implemented to heighten consumer demand for those fortified foods (i.e., influencing people
What are the considerations for effectiveness of incentive programs to promote the purchase of energy-efficient household appliances?
58similarly, the effectiveness of incentive programs to promote the purchase of energy-efficient household appliances has varied by a factor of 10, depending on how aggressively they were promoted to members of target households.59in short, active communication plays an important role in stimulating the uptake of useful new products and services
Give an example for  multi-level climate change interventions?
there exist only a few examples of multi-level climate change interventions. a compelling one was a social marketing initiative implemented in hood river or that resulted in a 15% decrease in community-wide electrical consumption as a result of a multi-level intervention targeting households.60,61built on the basis of extensive marketing research, the program influenced attributes of place by offering financial incentives and in-home assistance to help residents install various energy-conserving devices, and it influenced people-- both individuals and social networks--through aggressive use of media and word-of-mouth initiatives
an important interplay also exists between people and the attributes of place. using a traditional public health example, programs to prevent micronutrient malnutrition have been shown to be most successful when two conditions are ensured: (1) fortified staple foods are made widely available in the community (i.e., influencing place) and (2) promotional efforts are implemented to heighten consumer demand for those fortified foods (i.e., influencing people).58similarly, the effectiveness of incentive programs to promote the purchase of energy-efficient household appliances has varied by a factor of 10, depending on how aggressively they were promoted to members of target households.59in short, active communication plays an important role in stimulating the uptake of useful new products and services. there exist only a few examples of multi-level climate change interventions. a compelling one was a social marketing initiative implemented in hood river or that resulted in a 15% decrease in community-wide electrical consumption as a result of a multi-level intervention targeting households.60,61built on the basis of extensive marketing research, the program influenced attributes of place by offering financial incentives and in-home assistance to help residents install various energy-conserving devices, and it influenced people-- both individuals and social networks--through aggressive use of media and word-of-mouth initiatives. in sum, this program modified the hood river community in a variety of ways that made it easier and more normal for residents to adopt energy-saving measures. in an excellent review of communication as a policy instrument through which to alter environmentally significant behaviors, stern62concludes that communication can influence certain important drivers of behavior (i.e., personal capabilities, habits and routines, values, attitudes, beliefs and personal norms, and the social context in which behaviors are or are not performed), but has no capacity to influence the potentially more important institutional, economic, and technologic drivers of behaviors (including laws and regulations, financial costs and rewards, available technology, and convenience). stern concludes that larger and more sustainable changes in population behavior are likely to require use of the full range of policy instruments, including communication, voluntary collaborative actions by industry, command and control, economic instruments, and service and infrastructure. we suggest that, when focused appropriately, communication and marketing can be used to effect change among the institutional, economic, and technologic drivers of behavior. specifically, although communication and marketing are typically thought of as means to influence populations, they also provide means to influence the people who control the attributes of place that drive population behavior. governments can--and in many instances have-- sponsored communication and social marketing campaigns targeting climate change-related behaviors. government campaigns typically target people-based drivers of population behavior, but they can also be used to target place-based factors that are controlled by the private and ngo sector. california's success at holding its per-capita energy consumption constant over the past several decades provides an excellent example. when government policies contribute to the problem, ngoand citizen-sponsored campaigns can be used to advocate changes in government policy. the public health literature uses various concepts and terms to describe the use of communication and marketing to influence the attributes of place in this manner. these include policy advocacy, media advocacy, and dissemination of evidence-based practices. organizations in the private sector have a different set of concepts and terms to describe these activities including businesstobusiness marketing and lobbying.
When was the Global Climate Coalition (GCC) formed?
the global climate coalition (gcc) was formed in 1990
the response by us industry was rapid and aggressive. the most immediate business response was in the organizational domain. the global climate coalition (gcc) was formed in 1990, representing about 40 companies and industry associations who were major producers and users of fossil fuels. the breadth of industry represented was substantial, including coal, oil, automobiles, electric utilities, cement, aluminum, steel, chemicals, and paper. although the gcc was constituted as a us-based organization and was focused on domestic lobbying, a number of us subsidiaries of european multinationals also joined, and the gcc quickly rose to be the most prominent voice of industry. during the 1990s, a number of organizational initiatives attempted to improve communication and coordination among multinational corporations (mncs) from different countries, not always with great success. these efforts included the business council for sustainable development, which was particularly active at the un rio conference in 1992 (finger, 1994) and the international chamber of commerce (icc). the icc, whose membership is primarily drawn from oecd countries, has a very active working party on climate change which met
Who suffers the most from climate change?
impacts of climate change cause widespread harm to human health, with children often suffering the most
What are the potential impacts of climate change?
food shortages, polluted air, contaminated or scarce supplies of water, an expanding area of vectors causing infectious diseases, and more intensely allergenic plants are among the harmful impacts
What was the average reduction in life expectancy in North China during the 1990s?
and an average reduction in life expectancy of 5.5 years
impacts of climate change cause widespread harm to human health, with children often suffering the most. food shortages, polluted air, contaminated or scarce supplies of water, an expanding area of vectors causing infectious diseases, and more intensely allergenic plants are among the harmful impacts more extreme weather events cause physical and psychological harm. world health experts have concluded with ''very high confidence'' that climate change already contributes to the global burden of disease and premature death ipcc projects the following trends, if global warming continue to increase, where only trends assigned very high confidence or high confidence are included: (i) increased malnutrition and consequent disorders, including those related to child growth and development, (ii) increased death, disease and injuries from heat waves, floods, storms, fires and droughts, (iii) increased cardio-respiratory morbidity and mortality associated with ground-level ozone. while ipcc also projects fewer deaths from cold, this positive effect is far outweighed by the negative ones. growing awareness of the consequences of human-caused climate change triggers anxiety and feelings of helplessness [136- 137]. children, already susceptible to age-related insecurities, face additional destabilizing insecurities from questions about how they will cope with future climate change [138-139]. exposure to media ensures that children cannot escape hearing that their future and that of other species is at stake, and that the window of opportunity to avoid dramatic climate impacts is closing. the psychological health of our children is a priority, but denial of the truth exposes our children to even greater risk. health impacts of climate change are in addition to direct effects of air and water pollution. a clear illustration of direct effects of fossil fuels on human health was provided by an inadvertent experiment in china during the 1950-1980 period of central planning, when free coal for winter heating was provided to north china but not to the rest of the country. analysis of the impact was made [140] using the most comprehensive data file ever compiled on mortality and air pollution in any developing country. a principal conclusion was that the 500 million residents of north china experienced during the 1990s a loss of more than 2.5 billion life years owing to the added air pollution, and an average reduction in life expectancy of 5.5 years. the degree of air pollution in china exceeded that in most of the world, yet
What is the surplus loss of the average household in decile 1?
the average household in decile 1 incurs a consumer surplus loss of 4.42 percent of income without the dividend but gets a consumer surplus gain equal to 4.25 percent with the dividend
What is the surplus gain of the average household in decile 1?
the average household in decile 1 incurs a consumer surplus loss of 4.42 percent of income without the dividend but gets a consumer surplus gain equal to 4.25 percent with the dividend
What type of policy is cap-and-dividend?
on net, the graph makes it clear that the cap-and-dividend option is a progressive policy
the graph clearly shows that households in the lowest deciles see a dramatic improvement in their well-being as a result of the lump-sum dividend of allowance revenues. the average household in decile 1 incurs a consumer surplus loss of 4.42 percent of income without the dividend but gets a consumer surplus gain equal to 4.25 percent with the dividend. the figure also shows that households in all deciles benefit from the lump-sum return of revenues. although households in the higher income deciles do not experience a net gain, on average, they do incur a much smaller loss as a result of the rebate. the suits index from the tax is -0.20, indicating that the co2 price is regressive; however, the suits index from the rebate is -0.40, which is strongly progressive. on net, the graph makes it clear that the cap-and-dividend option is a progressive policy.
What does the observer reports allow?
observer reports allow an outside or inside observer to assess and compare school climate across schools
How does the observational reports seem to work best?
in general, observational reports seem to work best with the physical or tangible aspects of the school, such as school resources, organizational structure, or maintenance (fisk 2000 rashid and zimring 2008 
What did the MET study find?
the metstudy found that observers rarely gave scores in the very high or very low range, with most of the scores hovering around the middle. such reduced variability in ratings can lead to statistical analysis issues, such as reduction of power to detect significant differences between teachers, and misinterpreting small statistically significant effects as meaningful or practically significant
observer reports allow an outside or inside observer to assess and compare school climate across schools. we only found a handful of studies that rely on school-level observational assessments to measure school structural safety and organization. for example, tanner 2000 visited elementary schools to rate school design patterns, ranging from outside spaces to the condition of the bathrooms. in general, observational reports seem to work best with the physical or tangible aspects of the school, such as school resources, organizational structure, or maintenance (fisk 2000 rashid and zimring 2008 ). in addition, observers may see patterns within schools that contribute to school climate which may go unnoticed by teachers and staff. for example, an observer may note that high incidence of bullying is mainly due to large amounts of unsupervised time between classes or large numbers of unsupervised locations in the school. without knowledge of these preventable circumstances in school organization, survey ratings may overlook or undererestimate the effects of institutional and safety domains on bullying behaviors. this scenario provides an example of how observations may provide supplemental benefits to self-reports from students, teachers, and administrators, who are directly involved in school processes, and therefore, may overlook larger patterns that contribute to the quality of the climate. observational methods also have limitations. the met (measures of effective teaching) study, for example, is a large collaborative national research project in which students across several school districts were randomly assigned to classrooms to determine which indicators of teacher effectiveness (past gains on state achievement tests, student surveys, and observational reports) best predicted student achievement. the study found that a combination of past gains on state achievement tests, student surveys, and observational reports were better predictors of student achievement than any single indicator, but predictability was lower when students ' perceptions of the classroom were weighted lower than observational reports. in addition, there may be other observer report biases. the metstudy found that observers rarely gave scores in the very high or very low range, with most of the scores hovering around the middle. such reduced variability in ratings can lead to statistical analysis issues, such as reduction of power to detect significant differences between teachers, and misinterpreting small statistically significant effects as meaningful or practically significant. reliability of observations also depends on the number of observations conducted, the length of these observations, and the number of observers. having more than three or four raters increases the reliability of observational ratings, but unfortunately,
Explain temporal dependence?
one of the main constraints on the wider application of more statisticallybased approaches to modelling palaeo-data in general or their relationships with instrumental records more specifically, is the temporal dependence of the data
Explain ordination-based techniques?
a number of methods can be used to relax this assumption (e.g. the correlation structures for model residuals employed by simpson anderson (2009) although the statistical and computational knowledge required to deploy these approaches lies much beyond that of the ordination-based techniques
Explain Special Section?
expert assistance from statisticians could be usefully employed in the future to help address more comprehensively the issues raised by the data-sets created for the papers in this special section
one of the main constraints on the wider application of more statisticallybased approaches to modelling palaeo-data in general or their relationships with instrumental records more specifically, is the temporal dependence of the data. temporal autocorrelation violates a fundamental assumption of the basic regression model; that the data are independent random variables. a number of methods can be used to relax this assumption (e.g. the correlation structures for model residuals employed by simpson anderson (2009) although the statistical and computational knowledge required to deploy these approaches lies much beyond that of the ordination-based techniques. expert assistance from statisticians could be usefully employed in the future to help address more comprehensively the issues raised by the data-sets created for the papers in this special section. 19 19
What interventions can be made to reduce risk of flood hazards?
efforts to avoid the incursion of floodwaters into the local environment and living spaces such as flood control engineering and raised house construction
What is a way exposure to disease can be avoided?
by the flood-proofing of latrines or the use of bednets
How can development of illness can be prevented?
vaccination or social support networks
the direct health outcomes of floods can be seen as the end point of a series of events, whereby a flood event generates a flood hazard that leads to mortality and morbidity in humans exposed to the hazard. interventions can be made to reduce risk along various points of this process, including efforts to avoid the incursion of floodwaters into the local environment and living spaces such as flood control engineering and raised house construction. such general flood avoidance actions, however, are not the focus of this chapter, which confines its attention to health-related coping mechanisms and strategies (both private actions and external interventions). by that we mean responses geared toward the later stages of the impact process: actions geared to preventing injury and illness resulting from flooding and to promoting treatment, including the continued functioning of health services. these actions can take a variety of forms. hence: exposure to disease can be avoided, for example, by the flood-proofing of latrines or the use of bednets; development of illness can be prevented by vaccination or social support networks; and recovery can be promoted by stockpiling medicines or ensuring health services continue to function. the range of responses considered in this chapter loosely map on to the phases of the hazard cycle introduced in chapter 2. coping strategies relating to health are particularly concentrated in preparedness and emergency response, with some linkage too with mitigation and recovery phases for formal health systems. however, many of the actions cannot be too closely tied to one phase, either practically or conceptually - much preparedness for example is concerned with preparation for emergency response, recovery activities can evolve into mitigation of future floods, and there is confusion in the literature over the differences between mitigation and preparedness (e.g. early warning systems are alternatively referred to as mitigation or as preparedness). hence, it has not been feasible to organize this section in terms of phases of the hazard cycle. health-related responses also take place at a variety of scales by different agents or 'actors', a variation we try to convey in the substantive sections that follow. responses may take place at individual, household, community, city/district, regional, national and international scales. one of the most problematic of these scale categories to define is 'community', which has only vaguely defined connotations of local-scale social linkages and shared place-based identity. warburton (1998, p15) suggests the term is perhaps best understood by 'recognising what it is not: it is not state, society, association, individual'. in applying the term it is important to avoid the simplistic idea that communities are necessarily consensual or socially homogenous entities (leach et al. 1997). as with other scale categories, communities are characterised by internal differences and divisions that may become manifest in health-related response to crises.
Do the total exports (and imports) from China considered in this paper include both intermediate and final demand?
in this paper we consider total exports (and imports) from china, thus the exports include both intermediate and final demand
What makes it possible to consider trade in exports to final demand only?
if a global model is used, it is possible to consider trade in exports to final demand only
When analyzing the total emissions in China, does it matter whether they are (a) exports for final consumers or (b) inputs into foreign industries?
it is most relevant to analyze the total emissions in china regardless if they are exports for final consumers or as inputs into foreign industries
there are different methods to treat the emissions embodied in trade depending on how intermediate imports are dealt with (peters, 2008). in this paper we consider total exports (and imports) from china, thus the exports include both intermediate and final demand. if a global model is used, it is possible to consider trade in exports to final demand only. both approaches are correct, but they do answer different questions. for chinese policy at the national level, it is most relevant to analyze the total emissions in china regardless if they are exports for final consumers or as inputs into foreign industries. if one wants to analyze the global emissions to produce different products - such as in life-cycle assessment - then trade in intermediate products must be allocated differently.
What happened prior to running the main analysis?
prior to running the main analyses, a principal axis factor analysis was conducted to examine the factor structure of the pssms
What happened next?
next, descriptive statistics were generated for all study variables, including means, standard deviations, correlations, and scale reliabilities
How did they address the main study purposes?
to address the main study purposes, the recommendations of james, mulaik, and brett (2006) for testing mediation using structural equation modeling were followed
prior to running the main analyses, a principal axis factor analysis was conducted to examine the factor structure of the pssms (goodenow, 1993b). next, descriptive statistics were generated for all study variables, including means, standard deviations, correlations, and scale reliabilities. structural equation modeling using lisrel 8.71 (joreskog sorbom, 2004) with maximum likelihood estimation was used to address the main study purpose. first, the measurement model was examined to assess the relationships between the observed indicators and their respective latent constructs. the observed indicators were represented by two random aggregates or parcels created from the items of each scale. with the exception of self-determined motivation, these were generated by randomly selecting half of the items from each scale and then calculating the mean to represent the first item parcel. the mean of the remaining items was used to represent the second item parcel. in the case of self-determined motivation, two observed indicators were created by randomly selecting half of the items from each motivation subscale to calculate one self-determination index and then using the remaining items to calculate a second index (see sarrazin et al., 2002, and standage et al., 2006, for similar examples). the use of item parcels is acceptable when the set of parcels reflects a unidimensional factor structure (hagtvet nasser, 2004). parcels tend to be more reliable and normally distributed and produce more parsimonious models compared with single-item indicators (little, cunningham, shahar, widaman, 2002). to address the main study purposes, the recommendations of james, mulaik, and brett (2006) for testing mediation using structural equation modeling were followed. first, a baseline model was tested in which the only relationships between social contextual factors and self-determined motivation were indirect through
What does the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change indicate on global average tempeture increase?
if global average temperature increases by more than 1.5-2.5deg, there are projected to be major changes in local climates
Which are the projected major changes in local climates?
mean and range of temperature, precipitation (rainfall) and extreme events
the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (parry et al. 2007) indicates that if global average temperature increases by more than 1.5-2.5deg, there are projected to be major changes in local climates, in terms of mean and range of temperature, precipitation (rainfall) and extreme events (see appendix). the changes in climate and carbon dioxide concentration will affect the structure and function of ecosystems, species' ecological interactions, and species' geographical ranges, with consequences for biodiversity (malcolm et al. 2006) and ecosystem services. many ecosystems, including tropical forests, are likely to be affected this century by an unprecedented combination of climate change, associated disturbances (e.g., flooding, drought, wildfire, insects), and other global change drivers (e.g., land use change, pollution, overexploitation of resources).
What kind of ecosystem is the paragraph initially referring to?
intermittent saline intrusions are a common feature of many coastal lakes and wetlands. these ecosystems
What are the predicted effects of climate change on the ecosystems?
predicted effects of global climate change, including sea level rise, are likely to intensify saline intrusions into such ecosystems
What will incremental increases in saline do to brackish waters?
our analyses of lake waihola, and data from brackish ecosystems around the world, show that even relatively small increases in salinity levels can drive such systems to a state of depleted biodiversity and abundance, altering ecosystem functioning
intermittent saline intrusions are a common feature of many coastal lakes and wetlands. these ecosystems are often important sites of biodiversity, biological productivity, and ecosystem services such as the removal of sediment, nutrients, and contaminants from inflowing rivers. predicted effects of global climate change, including sea level rise, are likely to intensify saline intrusions into such ecosystems. analyses of taxonomic diversity and abundance of zooplankton at different salinities in lake waihola, south island, new zealand, are supported by results of laboratory studies of salinity tolerances of 3 crustacean taxa gladioferens pectinatus boeckella hamata and daphnia carinata obtained from the lake. the field and laboratory analyses show that severe perturbations of zooplankton community structure and abundance are caused by even minor saline intrusions into lake waihola that raise the salinity to >1.2 psu. our analyses of lake waihola, and data from brackish ecosystems around the world, show that even relatively small increases in salinity levels can drive such systems to a state of depleted biodiversity and abundance, altering ecosystem functioning. key words: zooplankton diversity * zooplankton abundance * climate change * community structure * shallow lake * salinity * lake waihola * saline intrusion
What is the basis of AMIP or GOGA experiments?
an experiment that has become the standard in the climate research community for evaluating agcms and also for determining the ocean forcing of climate variability is that where the models are forced with the known global evolution of (typically) monthly ssts and sea ice concentrations. such integrations form the basis of the atmospheric model intercomparison project (amip; gates et al. 1999), and as such they are commonly referred to as ''amip'' or ''global ocean global atmosphere'' (goga) experiments
What is the purpose of carrying out Ensemble experiments?
we examine ensembles of goga runs performed with four agcms (table 1). ensemble experiments are carried out in order to detect the climate signal related to the imposed lower boundary forcing, in contrast to individual simulations which, in the extratropics, are dominated by chaotic, nonlinear atmospheric interactions (e.g., kumar and hoerling 1995; mehta et al. 2000). for the moderately sized ensembles examined here, it is important to remember that internal variability might make an important contribution to the variability of the ensemble mean
What is the method suggested to arrive at a better estimate of forced response?
for the moderately sized ensembles examined here, it is important to remember that internal variability might make an important contribution to the variability of the ensemble mean. although statistical techniques that lead to less biased estimates of the true forced response have been developed (venzke et al. 1999), we found it insightful to simply examine the statistical behavior within an ensemble by constructing its probability distribution function (pdf). in addition, we examine multi-model ensemble means in order to better estimate the forced
an experiment that has become the standard in the climate research community for evaluating agcms and also for determining the ocean forcing of climate variability is that where the models are forced with the known global evolution of (typically) monthly ssts and sea ice concentrations. such integrations form the basis of the atmospheric model intercomparison project (amip; gates et al. 1999), and as such they are commonly referred to as ''amip'' or ''global ocean global atmosphere'' (goga) experiments. we examine ensembles of goga runs performed with four agcms (table 1). ensemble experiments are carried out in order to detect the climate signal related to the imposed lower boundary forcing, in contrast to individual simulations which, in the extratropics, are dominated by chaotic, nonlinear atmospheric interactions (e.g., kumar and hoerling 1995; mehta et al. 2000). for the moderately sized ensembles examined here, it is important to remember that internal variability might make an important contribution to the variability of the ensemble mean. although statistical techniques that lead to less biased estimates of the true forced response have been developed (venzke et al. 1999), we found it insightful to simply examine the statistical behavior within an ensemble by constructing its probability distribution function (pdf). in addition, we examine multi-model ensemble means in order to better estimate the forced
What do Complete-mix reactors Reactors allow?
an immediate dispersion of the pollutant as a result of the homogenisation of the entire tank
What is a result of the of the homogenization of the entire Complete-mix reactors?
cause the influent concentration to rapidly equal the low effluent concentration
What do the low concentrations prevailing in the reactor lead to?
a lower bod removal efficiency
complete-mix reactors reactors that allow an immediate dispersion of the pollutant as a result of the homogenisation of the entire tank cause the influent concentration to rapidly equal the low effluent concentration. the low concentrations prevailing in the reactor lead to a lower bod removal efficiency. this is the case of predominantly square complete-mix reactors (the concentration in the reactor, close to the inlet, is equal to the concentration at the outlet). these two types of idealised reactors characterise an envelope, inside which all the existing reactors are placed in practice. table 13.4 presents a description of the hydraulic models used in the representation of stabilisation ponds (see also table 8.1). facultative ponds 519
What rooms does the ground floor comprise?
the ground floor comprises kitchens and store rooms
What was curious about the windows?
the windows whistle, apparently
How wide are the walls?
the construction is fairly massive, with 600 mm wide walls of brick
built in the 1930s on a rock jutting out into the sea from the southern coast of capri island, this building is vertically zoned. the ground floor comprises kitchens and store rooms. the first floor has bedrooms and servants ' quarters and the second floor houses the living and dining rooms and the main living apartment. the construction is fairly massive, with 600 mm wide walls of brick. the roof is of uninsulated concrete so potentially forming a heat source. in the lower rooms the central corridor restricts the effectiveness of the cross-ventilation and the rooms have limited window openings so preventing excessive solar gain. these remain cool. the upper floor has large areas of unshaded glass, which lead to high solar gain levels in summer. they slide open to provide direct cross-ventilation, but not easily, and the very exposed site means that winds can get very strong around the house. on sunny afternoons with a strong cold wind the comfort levels of occupants on this floor would be interesting to record. high-level open vents just under the concrete ceiling were designed, presumably, to remove heat from and ventilate the room in such conditions. in fact, the building owner's favourite room was the first floor east-facing study with a kakkleoven for winter warmth and he preferred a first floor bedroom to sleeping in the main bedroom apartment. the windows whistle, apparently.
How to find satellite measurements between a pair of satellites
can be explained as a combination of "bias" and "noise
What is the difference between "bias" and "noise"
bias could be caused by systematic errors in the underlying retrieval(s) or due to spatial resolution differences of the measurements (especially in the vertical). however, random measurement uncertainty (precision), instrument spatial resolution differences (e.g., in the horizontal), and imperfect matching in space/time between the two measurements can be thought of as "noise
Is there a key distinction between the two
key distinction between "bias" and "noise" in this context is that when averaged over a sufficiently large number of matched pairs of measurements, the average inter-satellite differences due to "noise" tend towards zero (by definition
in general, satellite measurements of the same quantity such as wv may not agree with one another, even when the measurements are close in time and space and are nominally in the same air mass. in this hypothetical scenario, the difference between a single matched pair of satellite measurements can be explained as a combination of "bias" and "noise". bias could be caused by systematic errors in the underlying retrieval(s) or due to spatial resolution differences of the measurements (especially in the vertical). however, random measurement uncertainty (precision), instrument spatial resolution differences (e.g., in the horizontal), and imperfect matching in space/time between the two measurements can be thought of as "noise". the key distinction between "bias" and "noise" in this context is that when averaged over a sufficiently large number of matched pairs of measurements, the average inter-satellite differences due to "noise" tend towards zero (by definition), while any statistical bias between the
what is the Comparison of modelled, detrended and measured air concentration?
comparison of modelled, detrended and measured air concentrations (pg m- 3) of hchs, pcbs and p p'-ddt. a modelled annual air-concentration perturbations of hchs and pcbs in the closed air-water system from 1991 to 2100 under the ipcc multimodel ensemble average of annual sat anomalies (*c) over the arctic under sres emissions scenario a1b
Explain about Modelled summer air-concentration perturbations?
modelled summer air-concentration perturbations of a -hch and p p'-ddt used summer air-temperature anomalies t'from 1993 to 2009 calculated as the departures from the mean air temperature averaged over 1948-2009 in the arctic region
comparison of modelled, detrended and measured air concentrations (pg m- 3) of hchs, pcbs and p p'-ddt. a modelled annual air-concentration perturbations of hchs and pcbs in the closed air-water system from 1991 to 2100 under the ipcc multimodel ensemble average of annual sat anomalies (*c) over the arctic under sres emissions scenario a1b. annual sat anomalies t') are shown by the black dashed line and scaled on the second right-hand-side y axis; pcbs (scaled on the first right-hand-side y axis) and hchs (scaled on the left-hand-side y axis) are presented by coloured solid lines. b perturbed (in the air-water system), detrended and measured (normalized by standard deviation) summer a -hch air concentration at the zeppelin station. c perturbed (in the air-water system), detrended and measured (normalized by standard deviation) summer p p'-ddt air concentrations at the zeppelin station. modelled summer air-concentration perturbations of a -hch and p p'-ddt used summer air-temperature anomalies t'from 1993 to 2009 calculated as the departures from the mean air temperature averaged over 1948-2009 in the arctic region.
What are two types of approaches that are normally used to take information from global climate models to be applied at higher resolutions that are more meaningful to local ecological scales?
dynamical and statistical
What type of experiments could generate treatments for other years, times of year or emissions scenarios?
complex experiments
it is now possible to generate experimental treatments which are based on the predictions of global climate change models for large scale climate phenomena, but down-scaled to generate hourly weather scenarios. two types of approaches (dynamical and statistical) are normally used to take information from global climate models (gcms) 100 km resolution) to be applied at higher resolutions that are more meaningful to local ecological scales (see wilby wigley 1997; for a review). these approaches have been widely used in hydrology, but not directly in ecological experiments (wilby dawson 2012). gcms typically have coarse temporal (monthly) and spatial resolution and are most useful at these scales. experimental treatments for ecological studies need predictions at relatively fine spatial and temporal scales. these need to incorporate increases in mean temperatures, but also increased variability and increased frequency of extreme events, such as heat waves and extreme rainfall events, and more subtle impacts such as changes in cloud cover. for example in figure 1f, prolonged extreme high temperature events ('heatwaves') appear in the treatment based on predictions from a gcm. in our example, we sought to generate a climate change treatment to apply to indoor experimental stream flumes to assess climate change impacts on temperate australian stream benthic communities. we wanted to compare responses to conditions representative of mid-summer over the last decade, to mid-summer conditions predicted to occur under a climate change scenario for 2100. the controllable variables in the flumes were temperature, rainfall (as flow velocity) and light intensity. we carried out the downscaling process for one future time (2100) and one time of year (60 days in summer), using a single model and one emissions scenario (a1b scenario, predicting a year 2100 carbon dioxide concentration of 700 ppm (ipcc 2000). however, more complex experiments could generate treatments for other years, times of year or emissions scenarios. in addition, multi-model ensembles could be used to capture the uncertainty in climate predictions resulting from structural differences in the gcms as well as uncertainty due to variations in initial conditions or model parameterisation (semenov stratonovitch 2010). it is important that these weather time series are not averaged in a multiple ensemble as the resultant time series will lose its statistical variation. rather the key here is to ultimately generate multiple weather time series treatments (ensembles) that are applied experimentally so that the ecological results are robustly replicated. our strategy was to use the information contained in a gcm output, which projects how climate may evolve under future
What do red shades in the maps indicate?
areas predicted to improve for argentine ants
What do blue shades in the maps indicate?
areas predicted to worsen for the species
What do the Maps represent?
the average predictions of four scenarios of global climate change: hadcm3a2, hadcm3b2, cgcm2a2 and cgcm2b2
worldwide predicted changes in potential distributional area for the argentine ant between the present time and 2050. a difference maps (future suitability values minus present suitability values), showing expected changes in climatic suitability for argentine ants: red shades indicate areas predicted to improve for argentine ants, whereas blue shading indicates areas predicted to worsen for the species. b areas predicted to become newly habitable or non-habitable for the argentine ant: the greyscale indicates present-day potential presence (darker shades greater confidence), red indicates areas predicted to become habitable but not currently habitable, and blue indicates areas currently habitable but predicted to become non-habitable in the future. maps represent the average predictions of four scenarios of global climate change: hadcm3a2, hadcm3b2, cgcm2a2 and cgcm2b2. climate change and geographical potential n. roura-pascual and others 2531
What did Karoly and Stott43 consider?
karoly and stott43considered observed central england temperatures and simulated temperatures from a single climate model grid cell
What did they show?
they concluded that the observed warming trends over the last 50 years are very unlikely to be due to natural internal variability, cannot be explained by the response to changes in natural external forcing, and are consistent with the response to changes in anthropogenic forcing, increases in greenhouse gases and aerosols
What is an example?
this is an example of a consistency study, as only a limited number of possible forcing factors were considered and the contributions of the different factors to the observed warming were not estimated
as an example of a regional consistency attribution study, karoly and stott43considered observed central england temperatures and simulated temperatures from a single climate model grid cell. they showed that model-simulated variability of central england temperature agreed well with that observed at interannual, decadal, and 50-year timescales. they concluded that the observed warming trends over the last 50 years are very unlikely to be due to natural internal variability, cannot be explained by the response to changes in natural external forcing, and are consistent with the response to changes in anthropogenic forcing, increases in greenhouse gases and aerosols. this is an example of a consistency study, as only a limited number of possible forcing factors were considered and the contributions of the different factors to the observed warming were not estimated. dean and stott44carried out a similar consistency analysis for new zealand but in addition took account of the most important mode of regional climate variability that has caused a trend to more southerly flows in recent decades and hence a reduction of new zealand warming. on removal of the influence of this circulation variability, they found that recent trends in the residual temperature record cannot be explained by natural climate variations but are consistent with the combined climate response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, ozone depletion and sulfate aerosols, demonstrating a significant human influence on new zealand warming. variability at regional scales can mask or accelerate human-induced warming and a full understanding of such effects requires climate models that can adequately capture such variability.
What were most respondents concerned about?
a clear majority of respondents (68%) were most concerned about the impacts on people around the world and non-human nature
What proportion of respondents were most concerned about the impacts on themselves, their family or their local community?
only 13% were most concerned about the impacts on themselves, their family or their local community
According to the text, is climate change likely to become a high-priority national issue?
climate change is unlikely to become a high-priority national issue until americans consider themselves personally at risk
a clear majority of respondents (68%) were most concerned about the impacts on people around the world and non-human nature. only 13% were most concerned about the impacts on themselves, their family or their local community. this may help explain why global climate change remains a relatively low priority in issue ranking surveys (e.g., dunlap and saad, 2001). higher ranking national issues (e.g., the economy, education, health care, etc.) and environmental issues (clean air, clean water, urban sprawl) are all issues that are more easily understood as having direct local relevance. "global" climate change, however, is not yet perceived as a significant local concern among the american public. former speaker of the u.s. house of representatives tip o'neill once famously stated "all politics are local." to the extent that this is true, climate change is unlikely to become a high-priority national issue until americans consider themselves personally at risk.
Small island systems are commonly characterized as what type of system?
closed systems
What type of industry do these closed systems engage?
agriculture and fisheries
What is a key component of small island production systems?
fishing
small island systems are commonly characterized as closed systems that require the meticulous management of finite resources, such as water, plants or animals. while this somewhat idealized representation ignores the realities of inter-island trade and the seasonal presence of migratory species, there are nonetheless innumerable examples in small islands of sophisticated traditional resource management regimes that have provided and continue to provide for the social and ecological regulation of resource production, access, harvesting, storage and distribution. this is the case, for example, among small islands in the pacific, where many remote and geographically isolated communities continue to practise agriculture and fisheries in accordance with traditional resource management and governance systems. indeed, there are cases where island ecologies have been considerably modified to enhance their food production capacities, while maintaining their vital ecological equilibrium. falanruw (1989) describes how the early inhabitants of yap in the north-western pacific modified islands into an enthopocentric food production system that transformed the species composition of various habitats, but maintained their ecological function: 'agroforests buffer rainfall and stabilize and develop soil as do natural forests, taro patches and swamps function as silt traps, and mangroves provide a source of wood and nearshore areas for fishing and shellfish gathering, while continuing to perform their buffering, filtering and fish nursery functions.' in their study of the torres islands of northern vanuatu in the south pacific, damon and mondragon draw attention to local agricultural tenure and cropping patterns, which result in a patchwork of crops with mixed ownership (box 4.2). [because] it implies a distribution of environmental risk, this scattered pattern of food producing sites is critical to enhancing human and ecological capacities to cope with climatic fluctuations such as drought, excessive rainfall or future sea level rise. in this respect, it can be clearly stated that local forms of social organization, i.e. the torres kinship system and its associated forms of inheritance, settlement patterns and gardening times, in conjunction with knowledge of varieties and availability of major fertile soil types, constitute a key reference for outsiders wishing to understand torres islanders' capacity to adapt to climate change in the near future. fishing is another essential component of small island production systems. marine fish, turtles and invertebrates not only serve as the primary source of protein, but also function as key elements in the social and cultural life of the community and provide opportunities for economic development. the 59
Whats the greatest role for using adaptive traits of indigenous animal genetic resources?
genetic resources will be in more marginal systems in which climatic and other shocks are more common
what caused the evolution?
 which have co-evolved in these systems over millennia and have adapted to the prevalent climatic and disease environments
Co-evolution take de same speed and process for all systems?
his co-evolution will take place at different speeds within different systems
the greatest role for using adaptive traits of indigenous animal genetic resources will be in more marginal systems in which climatic and other shocks are more common. indigenous breeds, which have co-evolved in these systems over millennia and have adapted to the prevalent climatic and disease environments, will be essential (baker and rege, 1994). these systems are under substantial pressure arising from the need for increased production as well as land-use changes. under these circumstances, ensuring continuing availability of these adapted animal breeds to meet the needs of an uncertain future is crucial. the adaptive challenge will be to improve productivity traits while maintaining adaptive traits. this co-evolution will take place at different speeds within different systems. within this context, there will be a constant need to improve productivity since increasing demand will need to be supplied from a relatively non-increasing land and water resource base. current animal breeding systems are not sufficient to meet this need and the improvement of breeding programs under different livestock production and marketing contexts is a critical area for new research.
What is increasingly caught between major global transitions in both climate and social systems?
livelihoods are increasingly caught between major global transitions in both climate and social systems
Livelihood resilience can become a constructive 'boundary object' to enable what?
to enable communication, coordination and coherence across disciplinary and policy boundaries, situating action around a common objective: anti-poverty climate and development policy
What can have transformative developmental benefits for future generations?
even incremental improvements in livelihoods and small shifts in power relations can have transformative developmental benefits for future generations
livelihoods are increasingly caught between major global transitions in both climate and social systems. the impact of dangerous climate change falls disproportionately on the livelihood systems of the poorest citizens, undermining their capacity to build sustainable livelihoods and increasing their vulnerability. understanding the resilience of livelihood systems of poor people in the context of wider transformational shifts -- social and political as well as biophysical -- must now be seen as a normative priority44. even incremental improvements in livelihoods and small shifts in power relations can have transformative developmental benefits for future generations. resilience discourse is increasingly permeating the development cooperation landscape, including bilateral donors, un agencies and the world bank. aid agencies are using resilience largely as a framing concept to link multiple problems, stressors and responses21,45. a livelihood resilience approach helps to expand these efforts beyond such technical approaches to minimizing harm and loss by bringing issues of people's lives, rights, justice, politics and power to the fore. in doing so, it demands greater attention on the societal root causes underlying differences in vulnerability and resilience. the rio+20 agreements have set in motion an ambitious articulation of sustainable development goals in the light of new scientific and policy attention given to global environmental change during the past two decades. simultaneously, 2015 will see the negotiation of a new unfccc climate treaty to supplant the kyoto protocol and development of a revised hyogo framework for action on disaster risk reduction. livelihood resilience can become a constructive 'boundary object' to enable communication, coordination and coherence across disciplinary and policy boundaries, situating action around a common objective: anti-poverty climate and development policy.
Where can you find a summary table?
a summary table providing details of the key studies that we have identified is provided in appendix 1
How many, if any epidemiological studies been undertaken?
few rigorous epidemiological studies have been undertaken, and it is extremely difficult to assess the duration of symptoms and disease, and the attribution of cause without longitudinal data
What evidence is there of health impacts of flooding?
there is a surprisingly weak scientific evidence-base to assess the health impacts of flooding
overall, there is a surprisingly weak scientific evidence-base to assess the health impacts of flooding. few rigorous epidemiological studies have been undertaken, and it is extremely difficult to assess the duration of symptoms and disease, and the attribution of cause without longitudinal data. in general, the incompleteness of the information entails that a) the review cannot be limited to high quality epidemiological studies; b) there is insufficient information to evaluate specific public health interventions; and c) insufficient information to address more detailed questions about vulnerability to the health impacts of flooding. a summary table providing details of the key studies that we have identified is provided in appendix 1.
In temperate and tropical grasslands, what is a key determinant of livestock productivity?
in both temperate and tropical grasslands, species composition is a key determinant of livestock productivity
Mixed grasslands change composition as a result of temperature, rainfall patterns and what other factor?
as temperature, rainfall patterns and co2 levels change, so will the composition of mixed grasslands change
Who found that in a temperate grassland the effects of drought and high temperatures decline over the season to the point of negligibility for the growing season?
craine et al. (2012) found that in a temperate grassland, the effects of drought and high temperatures decline over the season, to the point where climate variability may have minimal impact later in the growing season
craine et al. (2012) found that in a temperate grassland, the effects of drought and high temperatures decline over the season, to the point where climate variability may have minimal impact later in the growing season. key ecosystem processes are seasonally sensitive to climate variability, and increased understanding of plant productivity will need to recognise that the timing of climate variability may be just as important as its magnitude (craine et al., 2012). in both temperate and tropical grasslands, species composition is a key determinant of livestock productivity. as temperature, rainfall patterns and co2 levels change, so will the composition of mixed grasslands change. small climatic changes may affect the dynamics and balance of different grasslands species, and these may result in changes in livestock productivity (ipcc, 2007). the overall effects of changes in temperature and rainfall and their variability on species composition and grassland quality, however, are still far from clear, and remain to be elucidated (ipcc, 2007).
how one must first determine the stronger effects ?
however, one must first determine the stronger effects such as el nin~o/la nin~a and volcanoes
year of global change started?
index terms: 1620 global change: climate dynamics (3309); 1650 global change: solar variability; 3309 meteorology and atmospheric dynamics: climatology (1620
how  can access A weaker effect?
a weaker effect, which must exist, is solar irradiance. we have determined the solar effect on the temperature from satellites measurements (available since 1979) of the solar irradiance and the temperature of the lower troposphere
the mean surface temperature of the earth depends on various climate factors with much attention directed toward possible anthropogenic causes. however, one must first determine the stronger effects such as el nin~o/la nin~a and volcanoes. a weaker effect, which must exist, is solar irradiance. we have determined the solar effect on the temperature from satellites measurements (available since 1979) of the solar irradiance and the temperature of the lower troposphere. we find the sensitivity to solar irradiance to be about twice that expected from a no-feedback stefanboltzmann radiation balance model. this climate gain of a factor of two implies positive feedback. we also have determined a linear trend in the data. these results are robust under truncation from either end of the of the data record. these measurements of solar sensitivity are consistent with prior estimates from ocean temperatures on decadal scales and of paleo-reconstructed temperatures on centennial scales. index terms: 1620 global change: climate dynamics (3309); 1650 global change: solar variability; 3309 meteorology and atmospheric dynamics: climatology (1620)
How long has oxygen gas dissolved in seawater been studied for?
oxygen gas dissolved in seawater has been studied as a tracer of physical and biological processes in the ocean for nearly half a century
What does a southward expansion of the model subtropical gyre explain?
a southward expansion of the model subtropical gyre explains the observed subtropical o2 increase from the 1980s to the 1990s, while the simultaneous o2 decreases seen throughout the midlatitude pacific are driven largely by reduced communication between the atmosphere and the ocean interior
What has analysis of the historical oxygen data revealed?
analysis of historical oxygen data has revealed widespread changes in subsurface oxygen concentrations over the past few decades, providing important constraints on the impact of late 20th century climate change on the circulation and biological productivity of the ocean
oxygen gas dissolved in seawater has been studied as a tracer of physical and biological processes in the ocean for nearly half a century. analysis of historical oxygen data has revealed widespread changes in subsurface oxygen concentrations over the past few decades, providing important constraints on the impact of late 20th century climate change on the circulation and biological productivity of the ocean. we report results from a hind cast ocean circulation/biogeochemical model that reproduces the spatial patterns of observed subsurface o2 variability in the north pacific, where inferred o2 trends are strongest. we find that decadal north pacific o2 variations in the lower ventilated thermocline primarily reflect changes in the basin's large-scale circulation. a southward expansion of the model subtropical gyre explains the observed subtropical o2 increase from the 1980s to the 1990s, while the simultaneous o2 decreases seen throughout the midlatitude pacific are driven largely by reduced communication between the atmosphere and the ocean interior. similar o2 decreases are pervasive among midand high-latitude water masses, but further research is needed to determine whether these changes reflect a global response to 20th century climate change. citation: deutsch, c., s. emerson, and l. thompson (2005), fingerprints of climate change in north pacific oxygen, geophys. res. lett. 32 l16604, doi:10.1029/2005gl023190.
Generally speaking, why is it difficult to solve?
general nonlinear
Who developed the technique applying decomposition?
this technique was first introduced in a rectangular domain by chavanis and sommeria (1996
What is the flow direction?
the flow is westward in the interior of the basin, with an eastward compensating flow near the boundaries
the mean-field equation (54) is in general difficult to solve; one issue is that the o ps relation is in general nonlinear. most of the analytical solutions have been obtained in the linear case, by decomposing the fields on a basis of eigenfunctions of the laplacian on the domain d this technique was first introduced in a rectangular domain by chavanis and sommeria (1996), who showed that the statistical equilibrium is either a monopole or a dipole, depending on the aspect ratio (fig. 4). the same method was extended to the case of barotropic flows, replacing vorticity by potential vorticity. taking into account the b effect, fofonoff (1954) flows are obtained as statistical equilibria in a rectangular basin naso et al. 2011; venaille and bouchet 2011). such solutions correspond to flows with two gyres (anticyclonic in the northern basin, cyclonic in the southern basin) in a rectangular basin, see fig. 5. the relative vorticity is confined to a boundary layer, whose with decreases with the total energy or when the b effect i.e. the relative strength of the gradient of the planetary vorticity) increases. the flow is westward in the interior of the basin, with an eastward compensating flow near the boundaries. different geometries can be studied: in a rotating sphere, the equilibria, in the linear limit, can be either solid-body rotations, dipole flows herbert et al. 2012) or quadrupoles, taking into account conservation of angular momentum herbert 2013). in the latter case, a perturbative treatment of the nonlinearity in the o ps relationship leads to the same flow topology, but sharper vortex cores qi and marston 2014). bouchet and simonnet (2009) have also considered the role of a small nonlinearity in the o ps relationship for a rectangular domain of aspect ratio close to 1, with periodic boundary conditions, thereby obtaining two topologies for the equilibrium states: dipole and unidirectional flows. adding a small stochastic forcing generates transitions from one to the other equilibrium.
What are some examples of flood resilient designs?
building on stilts (as seen on the waterfront in dundee in scotland) or building floating homes as in the netherlands
What may happen as a result of building the proposed flood defence?
this would inevitably push up flood water levels in the thames estuary, so flooding other settlements on its coast
What concerned ABI?
the proposed location and the use of lightweight innovative construction methods
the association of british insurers (abi), which had not been consulted during the planning stages, was so concerned about the proposed location and the use of lightweight innovative construction methods such as timber and steel frame housing, which has proved to be high risk for insurers in the past, that they had not guaranteed to provide mortgages or house insurance for a single dwelling before plans were passed for the development. in a spectacular example of the lack of joined-up thinking the abi was requiring that a substantial flood defence be placed around the whole development, possibly a double band structure. this would inevitably push up flood water levels in the thames estuary, so flooding other settlements on its coast and possibly, in conjunction with a storm surge and raised sea levels, push water over the thames barrier so flooding london. the thames is the best defended river in the uk, with protection to a design standard of the 1000-year return period event. in the netherlands they design for a 10 000 - 20 000-year event. perhaps london should do the same. at the very least, architects need training in more flood-resilient designs such as building on stilts (as seen on the waterfront in dundee in scotland) or building floating homes as in the netherlands. however, even if this is done there is still the issue of flood rescue and evacuation. many rescue services in england do not have training or equipment for flood rescue. (they have a statutory duty to do this in scotland.) emergency planners should be concerned that there is only one road in and out of the heart of the thames gateway development and not only will this lead to congestion but it also means that in the event of an emergency, evacuation of the region would be slow at best, and at worst be halted by a single road accident. while confidence in the regional sea level rise predictions is not as great as for temperature, 14 there is sufficient evidence for people to make informed and sensible decisions about where, and where not, to develop ' sustainable ' communities. perhaps the french word here is better. they use ' durable ' meaning that they will last. for instance, in choosing inappropriate construction types the abi is worried that houses in areas such as the thames gateway development are too vulnerable to damage in the event of
for what the Single-species stock assessment models are used?
single-species stock assessment models are generally used to estimate biological reference points that are used to make management decisions
how are set biological reference points in the United States?
in the united states, biological reference points are set such that the target biomass or fishing mortality is less than or equal to the limit biomass or fishing mortality
how forecasts are made?
forecasts are generally made for annual to decadal time scales under a variety of fishing or effort limitation scenarios in order to determine the total allowable catch or effort likely to ensure that biological reference points are satisfied within a specified time
single-species stock assessment models are generally used to estimate biological reference points that are used to make management decisions. in fisheries, most biological reference points are based on the concept of maximum sustainable yield (msy), the largest catch that can be removed from a population over a long period of time (i.e., without depleting the stock). theoretically, a population is maintained at msy by balancing removals with population increases due to new individuals entering the population. while maintaining the population at the biomass that provides the msy harvest would be optimal, it is generally recognized that the msy estimated by traditional assessment models cannot be maintained perfectly due to lmr variability that is not captured by the models. precautionary biological reference points are thus recommended mace, 2001 ). in the united states, biological reference points are set such that the target biomass or fishing mortality is less than or equal to the limit biomass or fishing mortality. if the estimated biomass is below the limit, the stock is declared overfished. if the estimated fishing mortality is over its limit reference point, overfishing is occurring. actions are taken based on these determinations to end overfishing and to allow the overfished stocks to recover. these management actions are informed by model forecasts based upon the model developed from the hindcast. forecasts are generally made for annual to decadal time scales under a variety of fishing or effort limitation scenarios in order to determine the total allowable catch or effort likely to ensure that biological reference points are satisfied within a specified time. many stock assessments rely upon limited observations and relatively simple, highly empirical relationships to constrain the potentially complex processes in eq. (1) recruitment r is an example of a particularly critical process in most stock assessment models myers, 1998; haltuch and punt, submitted for publication that is commonly assumed to be a function of stock biomass b ). several mathematical forms are used for this ''stock-recruitment relationship'' hilborn and walters, 1992; quinn and deriso, 1999 ), one of which is that of ricker (1954)
What reflected differences in men's and women's education levels and literacy?
these results of gender differences in access to institutions and information reflected differences in men's and women's education levels and literacy, as well as their culturallydefined roles in decision making and division of labour
What disadvantage of women resulted in major implications for building resilience to long-term climate change?
in confirming that gender was a factor in accessing precisely the information and support necessary for responding to climate variability, these results suggest that women are disadvantaged with regards to access to institutional support, which has major implications for building resilience to long-term climate change
In which sector the role of women needs to be recognized in a big way?
nevertheless, there is a greater need to recognize the role of women in agriculture and the impacts on their livelihood of agricultural related decisions
these results of gender differences in access to institutions and information reflected differences in men's and women's education levels and literacy, as well as their culturallydefined roles in decision making and division of labour. for example, cultural practices discouraged women's interactions with outside men, thus women would not interact with extension agents and as a result would be less likely to report having access to this information. in confirming that gender was a factor in accessing precisely the information and support necessary for responding to climate variability, these results suggest that women are disadvantaged with regards to access to institutional support, which has major implications for building resilience to long-term climate change. however, there are many programmes that extend institutional support specifically to women in india. nevertheless, there is a greater need to recognize the role of women in agriculture and the impacts on their livelihood of agricultural related decisions. it is important to increase the efficiency of institutional support to ensure that climate related information also reaches them to the degree that it is needed for making good decisions with or without referring to men. topics for further investigation the research identified a gap between the institutional advice on cropping provided and its uptake by farmers. in focus group discussions, the farmers, especially men, expressed the opinion that the advice provided was not suitable - either it came too late, or, if followed, it would not result in the highest possible profits. furthermore, the local government practice of disseminating farming practices via a "model farmer" did not appear to be successful, as many farmers, particularly women, could not identify with, or even identify who the model farmer was. in order to better understand the apparent gap between institutional support and farmer actions, a deeper analysis of the institutional structure is needed and a separate analysis for the reasons behind this gap is essential. table 5. sources of information on the weather, by gender
What is mentioned in acknowledgments?
this collaborative work between michigan technological university, school of forest resources and environmental science and the usda forest service, rocky mountain research station, grassland, shrubland, and desert ecosystems program is accomplished through joint venture agreement 11jv11221632-130, partially funded by the national center for reforestation, nurseries, and genetics resources
To whom they are giving thanks?
we thank dr. martin jurgensen for his contributions to this work we also thank randy johnson, bryce richardson, jerry rehfeldt, and three anonymous individuals for reviewing this manuscript
To how many anonymous individuals  are thanked for reviewing this manuscript.
three anonymous individuals for reviewing this manuscript
received february 18, 2013; accepted may 31, 2013; published online july 4, 2013. affiliations: mary i. williams (miwillia@mtu.edu), michigan technological university, school of forest resources and environmental science, usda forest service, rocky mountain research station, moscow, id. r. kasten dumroese (kdumroese@fs.fed.us), usda forest service, rocky mountain research station. acknowledgments: this collaborative work between michigan technological university, school of forest resources and environmental science and the usda forest service, rocky mountain research station, grassland, shrubland, and desert ecosystems program is accomplished through joint venture agreement 11jv11221632-130, partially funded by the national center for reforestation, nurseries, and genetics resources. we thank dr. martin jurgensen for his contributions to this work we also thank randy johnson, bryce richardson, jerry rehfeldt, and three anonymous individuals for reviewing this manuscript.
On which idea does the major players in the car industry seem to agree?
major players in the car industry seem to agree on the idea that hydrogen-powered fuel cells will replace the internal combustion engine
Why is it taking the car industry so long to commercialize the fuel vehicle?
an explanation is that, on top of the fact that it is difficult to develop the fuel cell vehicle itself, it also requires a substitution at the customer-end of the value chain
Why do some car firms first invest in so-called transition technologies, which are predominantly competence-enhancing?
this serves several purposes: it allows them to satisfy short-term demand for fuel-efficient and climate-friendly cars, it helps in establishing a green brand image (anderson gardiner, 2006), and it creates the asset mass efficiencies (dierickx cool, 1989) necessary to build the fuel cell vehicle.3
to begin with the car industry, several events can be discerned in this industry that point at developments regarding a change in this industry's key fsas. major players in the car industry seem to agree on the idea that hydrogen-powered fuel cells will replace the internal combustion engine in coming decades. the fuel cell vehicle is climate-friendly because it will remove direct carbon emissions from cars.2 the launch of the fuel cell vehicle would thus mean that car producers could be positioned in cell 4 - upstream fsa transformation - of figure 1. the technology is aimed at upstream fsas as it involves changes in r&d and production from modifying the car engine. it is a case of fsa transformation because the fsa portfolio as a whole keeps its function (producing cars); only the underlying routines will change as a result of the fuel cell technology. but why is it taking the car industry so long to commercialize the fuel vehicle? an explanation is that, on top of the fact that it is difficult to develop the fuel cell vehicle itself, it also requires a substitution at the customer-end of the value chain. the car industry is relying on chemical and energy industries to supply the hydrogen necessary to attract prospective customers. this necessitates a major breakthrough in the production and distribution of hydrogen, which has not occurred yet because it could be a competence-destroying change for suppliers of fossil fuels. as the car industry will not be able to supply the hydrogen itself, it thus faces a major barrier in bringing the fuel cell vehicle to the market. to overcome this barrier many car firms first invest in so-called transition technologies, which are predominantly competence-enhancing. this serves several purposes: it allows them to satisfy short-term demand for fuel-efficient and climate-friendly cars, it helps in establishing a green brand image (anderson gardiner, 2006), and it creates the asset mass efficiencies (dierickx cool, 1989) necessary to build the fuel cell vehicle.3 for example, ford and bmw are developing the hydrogen-powered internal combustion engine, which ford (2004) views as 'a "bridging strategy" using existing, proven technologies to deliver the environmental benefits of fuel cells at a fraction of the complexity and cost.' more accepted, however is hybrid technology, which is illustrated by daimlerchrysler's (2004) following statement: for the future we view the fuel cell as the technology, which has in the long term the most significant potential of reducing the co2-emissions of our products. [...] today we focus on three steps to reduce co2-emissions: the continuous improvement of conventional
Who are all extract the data?
j. kray and j. heisler-white
Who are all help this project?
b. bradley, r. early, j. lawler and c. lortie
Which one is part of Study?
this study was conducted as part of the climate invasions working group with support provided by the national center for ecological analysis and synthesis, a center funded by the national science foundation (grant #ef-0553768), the university of california, santa barbara and the state of california
we thank j. kray and j. heisler-white for assistance with data extraction. discussions with b. bradley, r. early, j. lawler and c. lortie were especially helpful to the development of this project. we are grateful to m. bracken for analytical assistance and comments. funding for c.j.b.s. was provided by the department of energy (doeer64982 for 'establishment of the northeast coastal watershed geospatial data network'). this study was conducted as part of the climate invasions working group with support provided by the national center for ecological analysis and synthesis, a center funded by the national science foundation (grant #ef-0553768), the university of california, santa barbara and the state of california.
What is current international climate mitigation trying go do?
current international climate mitigation efforts aim to stabilize levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere
What do the results mean for the future anthropogenic emissions?
our results suggest that future anthropogenic emissions would need to be eliminated in order to stabilize global-mean temperatures
What is assessed in this paper?
in this paper, we assess the co2 emissions requirements for global temperature stabilization within the next several centuries, using an earth system model of intermediate complexity
current international climate mitigation efforts aim to stabilize levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. however, human-induced climate warming will continue for many centuries, even after atmospheric co2 levels are stabilized. in this paper, we assess the co2 emissions requirements for global temperature stabilization within the next several centuries, using an earth system model of intermediate complexity. we show first that a single pulse of carbon released into the atmosphere increases globally averaged surface temperature by an amount that remains approximately constant for several centuries, even in the absence of additional emissions. we then show that to hold climate constant at a given global temperature requires nearzero future carbon emissions. our results suggest that future anthropogenic emissions would need to be eliminated in order to stabilize global-mean temperatures. as a consequence, any future anthropogenic emissions will commit the climate system to warming that is essentially irreversible on centennial timescales. citation: matthews, h. d., and k. caldeira (2008), stabilizing climate requires near-zero emissions, geophys. res. lett. 35 l04705, doi:10.1029/2007gl032388.
What is likely to be developed to meet a variety of challenges and may be difficult to separate out the portion associated explicitly with climate change?
in practice, it is likely that in many cases adaptation measures will be developed to meet a variety of challenges, and it may be difficult to separate out the portion associated explicitly with climate change
What will not remove all the consequences of climate change?
adaptation will not remove all the consequences of climate change, and there will be residual impacts
What the costs associated with making changes to policies and practices in the face of potential climate change called?
transaction costs are the costs associated with making changes to policies and practices in the face of potential climate change
the cost of explicit adaptation measures here represents the cost of measures explicitly introduced, by all interested parties (consumers and providers), to cope with climate change, and does not include the cost of measures introduced to meet other challenges which incidentally help adaptation to climate change. in practice, it is likely that in many cases adaptation measures will be developed to meet a variety of challenges, and it may be difficult to separate out the portion associated explicitly with climate change. adaptation will not remove all the consequences of climate change, and there will be residual impacts. these impacts will arise because adaptation may lag behind the changing climate, or because the adaptation measures introduced do not cope with the change in climate that actually occurs (due to imperfect knowledge). impacts will also occur, as in the absence of climate change, in events which exceed the design standards or provisions of the adaptation measure; the net effect of climate change is the difference between such residual impacts with and without climate change. these residual impacts will be difficult to quantify, as they vary across different parts of the water sector. they are relatively easy to characterise in flood management - they are the costs incurred in damaging events which are not prevented - but in other parts of the sector the residual impacts take the form of lost productivity (agriculture, industry and power generation), inconvenience and exposure to water-related disease and ill health. residual impacts also include the cost of emergency actions taken in response to an event, including the cost of implementing drought management plans and measures. transaction costs are the costs associated with making changes to policies and practices in the face of potential climate change. they include r&d costs and the costs of refining policies or reviewing decisions; these costs will be incurred even if decisions are subsequently made not to adapt to climate change. the objectives of adaptation will influence the costs of adaptation and the residual impacts. in the most general terms, adaptation can aim at: (i) maintaining a given standard of service, (ii) achieving a new 'optimum' standard of service, or (iii) meeting some new service standard. this new service standard could be higher - because for example the threat of climate change increases risk aversion - or could be lower because of financial or feasibility constraints. these objectives
What is adaptation in the perspective of climate change?
recent studies state that adaptation refers to changes in "processes or structures to moderate or offset potential dangers or to take advantage of opportunities associated with changes in climate" adaptation involves adjustments to decrease the vulnerability of communities and regions to climate change and variability
What is adaptive capacity of a system?
the adaptive capacity of a system is its ability or potential to adapt to the effects or impacts of climate
What can be the nature of adaptation in climate change?
adaptation can be spontaneous or planned and can be carried out in response to or in anticipation of changes in conditions
recent studies state that adaptation refers to changes in "processes or structures to moderate or offset potential dangers or to take advantage of opportunities associated with changes in climate" adaptation involves adjustments to decrease the vulnerability of communities and regions to climate change and variability. the adaptive capacity of a system is its ability or potential to adapt to the effects or impacts of climate. in this sense, actions directed to increase the adaptive capacity of a region can be regarded as strategies for coping to the threat of climate change. in fact, "the enhancement of adaptive capacity is a way of reducing vulnerabilities and promoting sustainable development" .20 adaptation can be spontaneous or planned and can be carried out in response to or in anticipation of changes in conditions. the concept of adaptation has generally been used to focus attention on the impacts associated to climate change mechanisms and, in particular, how ecosystems and human societies can cope with them.21
What will be useful information to help manage the risks that they pose?
early warning of climate tipping points may be feasible, at a level that could provide useful information to help manage the risks that they pose
For which risks better assessments are needed?
better assessments are needed of those risks, particularly of the impacts of crossing different tipping points, and of the response options available in reaction to early warning signals
With what improvements to early warning methods should start?
improvements to early warning methods should start with the formulation and application of objective guidelines for the choice of method parameters
early warning of climate tipping points may be feasible, at a level that could provide useful information to help manage the risks that they pose. better assessments are needed of those risks, particularly of the impacts of crossing different tipping points, and of the response options available in reaction to early warning signals. improvements to early warning methods should start with the formulation and application of objective guidelines for the choice of method parameters. even if further research shows that early warning is unachievable in practice, it could still provide valuable information on the vulnerability of various tipping elements to noise-induced changes.
What is the best documented example of climate change?
the best-documented example of rapid climate change that characterized the socalled 'greenhouse world' took place at the time of the palaeocene-eocene boundary: of isotopically light carbon into the ocean-atmosphere system, accompanied by global warming of 5-8*c across a range of latitudes, took place over a few thousand years. dissociation, release and oxidation of gas hydrates from continental-margin sites and the consequent rapid global warming from the input of greenhouses gases are generally credited with causing the abrupt negative excursions in carbonand oxygen-isotope ratios
What are the best documents for a dramatic rise in temperature?
the isotopic anomalies, as recorded in foraminifera, propagated downwards from the shallowest levels of the ocean, implying that considerable quantities of methane survived upward transit through the water column to oxidize in the atmosphere. in the mesozoic era, a number of similar events have been recognized, of which those at the triassic-jurassic boundary, in the early toarcian (jurassic) and in the early aptian (cretaceous) currently carry the best documentation for dramatic rises in temperature. in these three examples, and in other less well-documented cases, the lack of a definitive time-scale for the intervals in question hinders calculation of the rate of environmental change
What are the osmium-isotope ratios?
osmium-isotope ratios (187os/188os) for both the early toarcian oae and the petm show an excursion to more radiogenic values, demonstrating an increase in weathering and erosion of continental crust consonant with elevated temperatures. the more highly buffered strontium-isotope system (87sr/86sr) also shows relatively more radiogenic signatures during the early toarcian oae, but the early aptian and cenomanian-turonian oaes show the reverse effect, implying that increased rates of sea-floor spreading and hydrothermal activity dominated over continental weathering in governing sea-water chemistry. the cretaceous climatic optimum (late cenomanian to mid turonian) also shows evidence for abrupt cooling episodes characterized by episodic invasion of boreal faunas into temperate and subtropical regions and changes in terrestrial vegetation; drawdown of co2 related to massive marine carbon burial (oae) may be implicated here. the absence of a pronounced negative carbon-isotope excursion preceding the
the best-documented example of rapid climate change that characterized the socalled 'greenhouse world' took place at the time of the palaeocene-eocene boundary: of isotopically light carbon into the ocean-atmosphere system, accompanied by global warming of 5-8*c across a range of latitudes, took place over a few thousand years. dissociation, release and oxidation of gas hydrates from continental-margin sites and the consequent rapid global warming from the input of greenhouses gases are generally credited with causing the abrupt negative excursions in carbonand oxygen-isotope ratios. the isotopic anomalies, as recorded in foraminifera, propagated downwards from the shallowest levels of the ocean, implying that considerable quantities of methane survived upward transit through the water column to oxidize in the atmosphere. in the mesozoic era, a number of similar events have been recognized, of which those at the triassic-jurassic boundary, in the early toarcian (jurassic) and in the early aptian (cretaceous) currently carry the best documentation for dramatic rises in temperature. in these three examples, and in other less well-documented cases, the lack of a definitive time-scale for the intervals in question hinders calculation of the rate of environmental change. however, comparison with the palaeocene-eocene thermal maximum (petm) suggests that these older examples could have been similarly rapid. in both the early toarcian and early aptian cases, the negative carbon-isotope excursion precedes global excess carbon burial across a range of marine environments, a phenomenon that defines these intervals as oceanic anoxic events (oaes). osmium-isotope ratios (187os/188os) for both the early toarcian oae and the petm show an excursion to more radiogenic values, demonstrating an increase in weathering and erosion of continental crust consonant with elevated temperatures. the more highly buffered strontium-isotope system (87sr/86sr) also shows relatively more radiogenic signatures during the early toarcian oae, but the early aptian and cenomanian-turonian oaes show the reverse effect, implying that increased rates of sea-floor spreading and hydrothermal activity dominated over continental weathering in governing sea-water chemistry. the cretaceous climatic optimum (late cenomanian to mid turonian) also shows evidence for abrupt cooling episodes characterized by episodic invasion of boreal faunas into temperate and subtropical regions and changes in terrestrial vegetation; drawdown of co2 related to massive marine carbon burial (oae) may be implicated here. the absence of a pronounced negative carbon-isotope excursion preceding the
what are the popular policies adopted by the states?
energy efficiency and renewable energy policies adopted by the states have become increasingly popular in the past several years
why did states adopt energy efficiency programs?
while states adopted energy efficiency programs in the 1970s and 1980s to address rising energy costs and the oil embargo, the number and breadth of these programs has risen sharply in the past decade, as concerns regarding climate change and energy security have grown
what does energy security growth coincide with?
this growth directly coincides with our recognition of climate change as a problem, making it reasonable to equate policies that promote energy efficiency to climate change policies. renewable energy programs contain financial incentives as well as regulations to promote the use of renewable energy sources
energy efficiency and renewable energy policies adopted by the states have become increasingly popular in the past several years. while states adopted energy efficiency programs in the 1970s and 1980s to address rising energy costs and the oil embargo, the number and breadth of these programs has risen sharply in the past decade, as concerns regarding climate change and energy security have grown. this growth directly coincides with our recognition of climate change as a problem, making it reasonable to equate policies that promote energy efficiency to climate change policies. renewable energy programs contain financial incentives as well as regulations to promote the use of renewable energy sources. in addition to federal subsidies, many states provide tax exemptions for renewable energy equipment. they provide loan incentives for renewable energy production and rebate programs for renewable energies. regulatory policies benefiting renewable energy sources include rps that mandate a percentage of electricity that must be produced through renewable sources. net metering and interconnection laws require utilities to meter and purchase renewable energy from small or even household generators. generation disclosure laws provide consumers information regarding the energy
How can be the Climate impacts on coastal and estuarine systems?
climate impacts on coastal and estuarine systems take many forms and are dependent on the local conditions, including those set by humans
What we use to provide a perspective of the consequences of climate change for coastal wetland ecogeomorphology.?
we use a biocomplexity framework
What significantly affect coastal wetland ecosystems.?
human impacts, in combination with climate change, will significantly affect coastal wetland ecosystems
climate impacts on coastal and estuarine systems take many forms and are dependent on the local conditions, including those set by humans. we use a biocomplexity framework to provide a perspective of the consequences of climate change for coastal wetland ecogeomorphology. we concentrate on three dimensions of climate change affects on ecogeomorphology: sea level rise, changes in storm frequency and intensity, and changes in freshwater, sediment, and nutrient inputs. while sea level rise, storms, sedimentation, and changing freshwater input can directly impact coastal and estuarine wetlands, biological processes can modify these physical impacts. geomorphological changes to coastal and estuarine ecosystems can induce complex outcomes for the biota that are not themselves intuitively obvious because they are mediated by networks of biological interactions. human impacts on wetlands occur at all scales. at the global scale, humans are altering climate at rapid rates compared to the historical and recent geological record. climate change can disrupt ecological systems if it occurs at characteristic time scales shorter than ecological system response and causes alterations in ecological function that foster changes in structure or alter functional interactions. many coastal wetlands can adjust to predicted climate change, but human impacts, in combination with climate change, will significantly affect coastal wetland ecosystems. management for climate change must strike a balance between that which allows pulsing of materials and energy to the ecosystems and promotes ecosystem goods and services, while protecting human structures and activities. science-based management depends on a multi-scale understanding of these biocomplex wetland systems. causation is often associated with multiple factors, considerable variability, feedbacks, and interferences. the impacts of climate change can be detected through monitoring and assessment of historical or geological records. attribution can be inferred through these in conjunction with experimentation and modeling. a significant challenge to allow wise management of coastal wetlands is to develop observing systems that act at appropriate scales to detect global climate change and its
Tell us about the latest report.
a recent report for the climate outreach and information network98argued for the importance of identifying the overlap between the values underpinning british political conservatism and those which are congruent with sustainability, such as an emphasis on community well-being, intergenerational duty and a representation of the environment not as a 'service provider' but as something that people have a duty to protect
What is the duty of the environment?
intergenerational duty and a representation of the environment not as a 'service provider' but as something that people have a duty to protect
Tell us about the Conservative study in the UK?
one recent small-scale study of conservative voters in the uk, messages about low-carbon transport policies produced lower levels of fatalism and a greater sense of responsibility when they were framed using selftranscending
similarly, a recent report for the climate outreach and information network98argued for the importance of identifying the overlap between the values underpinning british political conservatism and those which are congruent with sustainability, such as an emphasis on community well-being, intergenerational duty and a representation of the environment not as a 'service provider' but as something that people have a duty to protect. and in one recent small-scale study of conservative voters in the uk, messages about low-carbon transport policies produced lower levels of fatalism and a greater sense of responsibility when they were framed using selftranscending (rather than self-enhancing) conservative values such as the beauty of local landscapes.99
How do small tropical glaciers respond to climate signals?
since small tropical glaciers are known to respond to climate signals at very short timescales, it seems reasonable to assume that their mass balance might reflect large-scale climate variability of the tropical troposphere
Where is the data from this study from?
in this study, we present new data from the well-documented chacaltaya glacier, representative of small andean glaciers located in the outer tropics (figure 1
What is the aim of the study?
the aim of this study is thus to analyze the climatemass balance relationship on both a microscale and a large scale, in order to improve our understanding of what caused the observed dramatic glacier retreat in this part of the world
since small tropical glaciers are known to respond to climate signals at very short timescales, it seems reasonable to assume that their mass balance might reflect large-scale climate variability of the tropical troposphere. in this study, we present new data from the well-documented chacaltaya glacier, representative of small andean glaciers located in the outer tropics (figure 1). due to its small elevation range and its small size, the glacier is temperate and behaves alternatively as an ablation or an accumulation area. these conditions suggest that the glacier response to climatic variability is enhanced and detectable even at a short timescale. the aim of this study is thus to analyze the climatemass balance relationship on both a microscale and a large scale, in order to improve our understanding of what caused the observed dramatic glacier retreat in this part of the world. in the next section we present the study area, give a short to the climatic setting and briefly review previous similar studies. section 3 includes an overview of the data and methods that were used, while section 4 presents the results of the mass balance study both in terms of its seasonal pattern and its evolution during the last decade. in section 5 we discuss the energy balance on chacaltaya, while section 6 focuses on empirical climatemass balance relationships on both a local and large scale. section 7 ends with a summary and some concluding remarks.
What does Figure 1D show?
figure 1 d shows the major dryland surface vegetation types from modis
What does Figure 1A show?
as shown in fig. 1 a, global drylands defined by ai is primarily distributed in the middle and low latitudes and closely match the map from unep (middleton and thomas 1997 
Where do major hyper-arid areas occur?
major hyper-arid areas occur over the central and northern sahara desert, the rub al khali desert in the eastern arabian peninsula, the iran/afghanistan/pakistan border area, the taklimakan desert in northwestern
the spatial distributions of drylands (as identified by ai or annual precipitation from 1961 to 1990 and the koppen- geiger climate classification for 1951-2000) are shown in fig. 1 a-c. although there are no fixed or precise limits for the biomes, the major dryland biomes include savanna, grassland, and desert (safriel and adeel 2005 ). figure 1 d shows the major dryland surface vegetation types from modis. as shown in fig. 1 a, global drylands defined by ai is primarily distributed in the middle and low latitudes and closely match the map from unep (middleton and thomas 1997 ). major hyper-arid areas occur over the central and northern sahara desert, the rub al khali desert in the eastern arabian peninsula, the iran/afghanistan/pakistan border area, the taklimakan desert in northwestern
What does Figure 5 show?
sensitivity of the strength of viability selection (vs) on homozygosity weighted by locus (hl) to statistical parameters of vital rates describing the survival and fertility functions of integrated projection models
What is the age range of pre-breeders?
pre-breeders of ages 1 to 7
What are the age groupings of breeders?
breeders of ages 3 to 7 c and breeders of ages 8 or above
extended data figure 5 sensitivity of the strength of viability selection (vs) on homozygosity weighted by locus (hl) to statistical parameters of vital rates describing the survival and fertility functions of integrated projection models. panels a - d show sensitivity to survival of first-year females a ), pre-breeders of ages 1 to 7 b ), breeders of ages 3 to 7 c and breeders of ages 8 or above d ). panel e shows sensitivity to recruitment a and panels f and g show sensitivity to fecundity for ages 3 to 7, and 8 or above, respectively. panel h shows the sensitivity to inheritance h h 9 h )), where the dashed line is for the variance parameter. panels i and j show sensitivities to breeding success for ages 3 to 7, and ages 8 or above, respectively. colours are red for intercept, black and grey for linear and quadratic sam index effects, respectively, green for hl effects, and dark blue and light blue for linear and quadratic ageeffects, respectively. note that thescale of thevertical axis in panel a is an order of magnitude larger than the other panels.
What will be delivered to surrounding depositional basins?
crustal root will be delivered to surrounding depositional basins
What have at times been offered as evidence for a climatic influence on tectonics?
observations of quasi-steady balance between erosion and rock uplift rate (in taiwan, the southern alps of new zealand and the olympic mountains, among others)43-46 and documentation of an isostatic rebound in response to accelerated erosion have at times been offered as evidence for a climatic influence on tectonics
What supports the argument that this climate change enhances erosional efficiency?
a demonstration of isostatic rebound47,48 and/or increase in sediment delivery to basins49,50, in response to the onset of quaternary glaciation, supports the argument that this climate change enhances erosional efficiency
u fa/ w everywhere as prescribed by the block-uplift kinematics. during a transient response to an increase in erosional efficiency, however, there will be a passive isostatic rebound in response to erosional unloading. for a time, the erosion rate will exceed fa/ w and the excess volume of rock previously stored in the topography and crustal root will be delivered to surrounding depositional basins, temporarily increasing fe to greater than fa (fig. 4b,c). observations of quasi-steady balance between erosion and rock uplift rate (in taiwan, the southern alps of new zealand and the olympic mountains, among others)43-46 and documentation of an isostatic rebound in response to accelerated erosion have at times been offered as evidence for a climatic influence on tectonics. however, both of these arise in the hypothetical fixed-width system characterized by simple block-uplift driven by independent tectonic processes. thus, neither observation provides a test or demonstration of the dynamic interactions seen in coupled models, whereby the climate-modulated erosional efficiency directly affects internal deformation patterns, structural configurations and the rates and patterns of rock uplift. a demonstration of isostatic rebound47,48 and/or increase in sediment delivery to basins49,50, in response to the onset of quaternary glaciation, supports the argument that this climate change enhances erosional efficiency, but does not lend support to the hypothesis that there is a profound link between climate and tectonics. we must look for evidence of connections beyond the well-established isostatic rebound to erosional unloading which operates even in inactive mountain ranges51.
What consequence did turning Central Asia into a major irrigation economy have on the Aral Sea?
the policy of turning central asia into a major irrigation economy ultimately led to the desiccation of the aral sea
decisionmakers in the ussr realized that the abundant water resources of kyrgyzstan, together with a favorable topography, make the country exceptionally rich in water storage and hydropower potential. at the same time, the vast low-lying steppes in the midstream and downstream reaches of the syr darya (nowadays uzbekistan and kazakhstan) could be turned into centers of irrigated agricultural production (dukhovny sokolov, 2003; savoskul et al., 2003). hence the ussr began to develop large-scale irrigated agriculture, particularly cotton and wheat production, in the stalinist period and under khrushchev in the mid-1950s. the major irrigated agricultural areas at present are the densely populated and ethno-politically unstable fergana valley in uzbekistan and the kyzylorda and south kazakhstan oblasts in the syr darya catchment in kazakhstan. the policy of turning central asia into a major irrigation economy ultimately led to the desiccation of the aral sea, with highly adverse social, economic and environmental consequences in the region (micklin, 1988).2
why designing buids study is important?
education of the public on the ways to avoid heat stress and cold stress in ways that require little energy use
what is the mechanism in insstigation?
the instigation of mechanisms for warning the public and the authorities when dangerous weather episodes are expected
what are the medical advice you will take ?
further medical advice to be issued together with weather forecasts (e.g. advice is currently given on pollen counts, ultraviolet exposure and wind chill; a met office scheme is already underway with general practitioners so that patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease can be targeted to take appropriate actions when a cold snap is predicted
education of building professionals on how to design buildings that meet these needs. <s121>* education of the public on the ways to avoid heat stress and cold stress in ways that require little energy use. <s121>* the instigation of mechanisms for warning the public and the authorities when dangerous weather episodes are expected. <s121>* further medical advice to be issued together with weather forecasts (e.g. advice is currently given on pollen counts, ultraviolet exposure and wind chill; a met office scheme is already underway with general practitioners so that patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease can be targeted to take appropriate actions when a cold snap is predicted). <s121>* retrofitting of the existing housing stock to provide sufficient insulation (while maintaining appropriate ventilation) and to combat overheating through shading. more free ebooks http://fast-file.blogspot.com
What does the magnitude of difference suggest?
evidently, the magnitude of the differences between the experiments is small (figs 55e-55h) in all cases, suggesting a rather passive role of the ocean in terms of local feedbacks to the climate warming
What does the cold start case lead to?
the cold start case (gwcs) leads to global mean sats and ssts at 2100 that are 0.30degc and 0.23degc warmer, respectively, (fig. 56c; table 4) than for the corresponding transient case (gwtr
What led to substantial differences in the SAT change at year 2100?
sea-ice feedbacks between the cold start and different transient runs, however, lead to substantial differences in the sat change at year 2100 (fig. 56
the projected strength of the overturning at the year 2100 is shown in figs 55a-55d for the gwcs, gwlws, gwtr and gwtr [?] s<s287>0 experiments, respectively. evidently, the magnitude of the differences between the experiments is small (figs 55e-55h) in all cases, suggesting a rather passive role of the ocean in terms of local feedbacks to the climate warming. sea-ice feedbacks between the cold start and different transient runs, however, lead to substantial differences in the sat change at year 2100 (fig. 56). the cold start case (gwcs) leads to global mean sats and ssts at 2100 that are 0.30degc and 0.23degc warmer, respectively, (fig. 56c; table 4) than for the corresponding transient case (gwtr). as a consequence, there is less sea ice in both the southern and northern hemispheres in gwcs relative to 60 andrew j. weaver et al.
What do we see in table 4?
variance explained by hglm models table 4 shows the estimated variance components for all the models
What explains the increased variance?
the addition of structural, demographic, and faculty perceived campus climate environment measures increased the explained variance by about 7% while peer institutional retention climate measures further increased the explained variance from 65.3% to 69.1
Why is the combined theoretical frame guiding the study useful?
the combined theoretical frame guiding the study is particularly useful because particular emphasis is placed on the unique effects of peer normative contexts or institutional climate on student persistence
variance explained by hglm models table 4 shows the estimated variance components for all the models. the final institutionlevel model explained 69.1% of the variance in mean persistence rates among four-year colleges and universities. the majority of variance (58.2%), however, was explained by differences in the individual characteristics and student composition. the addition of structural, demographic, and faculty perceived campus climate environment measures increased the explained variance by about 7% while peer institutional retention climate measures further increased the explained variance from 65.3% to 69.1%. this is an important contribution to our understanding of retention rates. that is, the persistence ethos at the college appears to influence individual level persistence. discussion the main contribution of this work lies in the ability to show that institutional retention climates do influence retention probabilities. the combined theoretical frame guiding the study is particularly useful because particular emphasis is placed on the unique effects of peer normative contexts or institutional climate on student persistence. we found that measures of intentions to leave had contextual effects on student persistence. the difference in the logodds between institutional-level intention to leave and student-level intention to leave was statistically significant. attending a college where students' collectively report a certain behavior such as likelihood of transferring, dropping out, or stopping out has independent
Climate variability is driven by what?
climate variability is driven on all timescales by external forcing and the internal dynamics of the system5
What are the external forcings?
external forcings range from pulse-like events such as volcanic eruptions to changes on geologic timescales due to plate tectonics
Which internal dynamics affect climate variablity?
internal dynamics include rapid atmospheric processes as well as those arising from ocean convection and ice-sheet dynamics
climate variability is driven on all timescales by external forcing and the internal dynamics of the system5. external forcings range from pulse-like events such as volcanic eruptions to changes on geologic timescales due to plate tectonics. internal dynamics include rapid atmospheric processes as well as those arising from ocean convection and ice-sheet dynamics. the total variability can be divided into stochastic and periodic components ranging from the diurnal cycle to changes in earth's orbit1. part of this variability continuum is fingerprinted in instrumental measurements spanning the past 100-250 years-- a period that is additionally influenced by anthropogenic greenhouse-gas emissions. to assess pre-instrumental natural climate variability and changes over longer timescales, proxy records derived from tree rings, corals, lake sediments, ice cores, stalagmites or other archives4are necessary. climate estimates derived from these archives contain a substantial fraction of noise (non-climate relevant information) and may contain mixed climatic signals (for example, precipitation and temperature6) of a poorly defined or even variable seasonality7. temporal resolution can vary from seasonal to multi-centennial depending on the proxy type and can even change within one record. variance artefacts may exist and thresholds might be reached (supplementary fig. s1). data treatment required to extract the climate signals, for instance the removal of age-related trends in tree rings, has to be done carefully to avoid loss of low-frequency variability8. at the same
What did IPCC affirm in its Third Assessment Report conclusion
anthropogenic climate change is already happening and is set to intensify even if the planned reduction in greenhouse gas emissions is achieved on schedule
What was stated in the paper Poverty and Climate Change devised by a consortium of bilateral and multilateral development agencies
a consortium of bilateral and multilateral development agencies (including the world bank) has noted that climate change poses serious threats to the accomplishment of the millennium goals. major bilateral donors have been reexamining their policies and portfolios to see how they can best respond to the need
What must a strategy to deal with climate change include
the strategy to deal with climate change must include both adaptation and mitigation
as previously noted the growing attention to adaptation is not peculiar to the world bank, and is to be seen in the work of other donor agencies as well as the climate change negotiations under the framework convention. in its third assessment report, the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc 2002) reaffirmed the tentative conclusions of its previous reports: anthropogenic climate change is already happening and is set to intensify even if the planned reduction in greenhouse gas emissions is achieved on schedule. the strategy to deal with climate change must include both adaptation and mitigation (see box 4.1). the new findings of the ipcc have strengthened concern in developed and developing countries alike. in particular, the potential implications for sustainable development and equity are serious. in a paper on poverty and climate change (see box 4.2) a consortium of bilateral and multilateral development agencies (including the world bank) has noted that climate change poses serious threats to the accomplishment of the millennium goals. major bilateral donors have been reexamining their policies and portfolios to see how they can best respond to the need for
What is AMO?
association of municipalities of ontario
When AMO was founded?
the centre was founded in 2002 by the association of municipalities of ontario (amo
Abbreviation for OMMA?
ontario ministry of municipal affairs (omma
the centre was founded in 2002 by the association of municipalities of ontario (amo), other municipal associations, and the ontario ministry of municipal affairs (omma). ocmbp identifies municipalities' best practices but does not reward them. 5.2.2. water infrastructure design and related measures eowrc and cas should take the lead in stormwater management, groundwater protection,monitoringforbothquantityandqualityatlocationsofhighgroundwater sensitivity and surface water - groundwater interactions, in relevant data gathering, and in supply-demand projections based on best practices. the level of public education and of well and septic system inspections need to be increased. service standards and due diligence for water-related infrastructure under climate change need to be determined in cooperation with the province. attention
Why is brt pleasure able
brt is very plausible because it reflects a genuine and genuinely important body of work
"analytical processing" is Acquired through what
analytical processing" style that is acquired through scientific training
reasoning plays in all manner of what
reasoning plays in all manner of cognitive bias
(marx et al., 2007) but that often have "little correspondence to more objective measures of risk" (weber, 2006, p. 104). those more objective measures, which "quantify either the statistical unpredictability of outcomes or the magnitude or likelihood of adverse consequences" (p. 104), are the ones that scientists employ. using them demands an alternative "analytical processing" style that is acquired through scientific training and that "counteract[s] the emotionally comforting desire for confirmation of one's beliefs" (weber stern, 2011, p. 319). brt is very plausible because it reflects a genuine and genuinely important body of work on the role that overreliance on heuristic (or "system 1") reasoning as opposed to conscious, analytic ("system 2") reasoning plays in all manner of cognitive bias (frederick, 2005; kahneman, 2003). but many more surmises about how the world works are plausible than are true (watts, 2011). that is why it makes sense to clearly identify accounts like brt as "conjectures" in need of empirical testing rather than as genuine "explanations" (weber stern, 2011).
What trees were excluded?
we excluded trees that could not be dated and those that established before 1952
How were the trees dated?
cores and discs from juvenile trees were dated by ring counting using coorecorder
How was age estimation accuracy estimated?
age estimation accuracy was estimated by comparison of individual ring counts and re-counts made on a random selection of 10% of cores and discs and from the variability of terminal bud counts
cores and discs from juvenile trees were dated by ring counting using coorecorder (larsson 2003). age at 15 cm was estimated for each core for each tree separately, or from several radii for each stem disc. the modal value of the number of annual terminal bud scars at 15 cm, counted on a sample of 30 saplings at each site, was added to the age at 15 cm to give total age for each juvenile tree. age estimation accuracy was estimated by comparison of individual ring counts and re-counts made on a random selection of 10% of cores and discs and from the variability of terminal bud counts. we excluded trees that could not be dated and those that established before 1952, the earliest year covered by mean annual temperature data. this left a total of 179 trees (85% of the total) to be used in the temperature and age-based analyses.
What kind of studies are the predominant tool used to evaluate potential effects from climate change?
agronomic studies are the predominant tool used to evaluate potential effects from climate change
What do planting dates for corn and soybeans depend on year-to-year?
in practice, northern regions tend to plant later than southern regions, and planting dates may vary from year-to-year depending on weather conditions
What does the SI Appendix show?
the si appendix shows results from eight alternative specifications of the growing season, all with comparable results. when we limit the growing season to two-month intervals or estimate separate temperature response functions for july (when corn flowers) and other months, we find qualitatively similar temperature-response functions for each subperiod
the baseline model uses temperature and precipitation measures for the months of march through august for corn and soybeans. in practice, northern regions tend to plant later than southern regions, and planting dates may vary from year-to-year depending on weather conditions. the si appendix shows results from eight alternative specifications of the growing season, all with comparable results. when we limit the growing season to two-month intervals or estimate separate temperature response functions for july (when corn flowers) and other months, we find qualitatively similar temperature-response functions for each subperiod. although f tests give significantly different coefficient estimates in july compared to the pooled remaining months, the fit (r2) hardly increases at all when breaking the growing season into various subperiods and predicted climatechange impacts that are not significantly different. for example, a corn-yield model with separate temperature coefficients for july only slightly increases the r2from 0.7654 to 0.7698 under the step function and changes overall predicted long-run yield impact from  43% to  44% under the slow-warming scenario (b1) and from  79% to  74% under the fast-warming scenario (a1fi). discussion many studies, spanning several disciplines and employing different methods, have linked weather and climate to agricultural outcomes such as yields, land values, and farm profits, each with their own set of strengths and weaknesses. agronomic studies are the predominant tool used to evaluate potential effects from climate change. examples include refs.13- 17, but there are many others. these studies emphasize the dynamic physiological process of plant growth, seed formation, and yield. the process is understood to be quite complex and
The chemical composition of the methanogenic microorganisms is presented where?
table 24.2
According to Lettinga et al. (1996), assuming that the nutrients present in sewage are in a form What?
available to the bacteria, the following relations can be used
the chemical composition of the methanogenic microorganisms is presented in table 24.2. according to lettinga et al. (1996), the minimum nutrient requirements can be calculated by the following expression: nr s0* y * nbac* tss vss (24.18) where: nr nutrient requirement (g/l) s0 concentration of influent cod (g/l) y yield coefficient (gvss/gcod) nbac concentration of nutrient in the bacterial cell (g/gvss) tss/vss total solids/volatile solids ratio for the bacterial cell (usually 1.14) for biological treatment processes to be successful, the inorganic nutrients necessary for the growth of microorganisms should be supplied in sufficient amounts. if the ideal concentration of nutrients is not supplied, there should be some form of compensation, either by applying smaller loads to the treatment system, or by allowing a reduced efficiency of the system. the presence or absence of micronutrients in the wastewater is generally evaluated by a laboratory survey. sometimes, the combined treatment of several types of wastewater can compensate for the lack of micronutrients in some wastes. domestic sewage generally presents all appropriate types of nutrients in suitable concentrations, thus providing an ideal environment for the growth of microorganisms, with no limitations for the anaerobic digestion process. a possible exception is the availability of sufficient iron in sludge generated in domestic sewage treatment, which may limit the methanogenic activity. on the other hand, industrial effluents are more specific in composition and may require a nutrient supplementation for an ideal degradation. the following nutrients, in decreasing order of importance, are necessary for the nutritional stimulation of methanogenic microorganisms: nitrogen, principles of anaerobic digestion 683 sulfur, phosphorus, iron, cobalt, nickel, molybdenum, selenium, riboflavin and vitamin b12. (a) nitrogen generally, nitrogen is the inorganic nutrient required in larger concentrations for the growth of microorganisms. under anaerobic conditions, nitrogen in the forms of nitrite and nitrate is not available for bacterial growth, as it is reduced to nitrogen gas and released to the atmosphere. ammonia and the fraction of organic nitrogen released during degradation are the main sources of nitrogen used by microorganisms. as bacteria grow much more in wastes containing large amounts of carbohydrates than they do in wastes containing proteins and volatile acids, the nitrogen needs for the first type of waste may be about six times larger than those for the volatile acid-based wastes due to an increased synthesis of the fermentative bacteria. nitrogen requirements are based on the empirical chemical composition of the microbial cell, according to table 24.2. although an estimation of the nutrient requirements based on the sewage concentration is not the most suitable one, most of the guidelines contained in the specialised literature refer to a cod-based supplementation of nutrients. according to lettinga et al. (1996), assuming that the nutrients present in sewage are in a form available to the bacteria, the following relations can be used:
What does the methodology propose?
the proposed methodology uses a least-squares approach to compute the best continuous set of straight lines that fit a given time series, subject to a number of constraints on the minimum distance between breakpoints and on the minimum trend change at each breakpoint
How many climate time series are tested?
the method is tested with three climate time series
What is a common method in scientific studies?
finding an overall linear trend is a common method in scientific studies
finding an overall linear trend is a common method in scientific studies. it is almost a requirement when one intends to study variability. nevertheless, when dealing with long climate temporal series, fitting a straight line only seldom has a relevant meaning. this paper proposes and describes a new methodology for finding overall trends, and, simultaneously, for computing a new set of climate parameters: the breakpoints between periods with significantly different trends. the proposed methodology uses a least-squares approach to compute the best continuous set of straight lines that fit a given time series, subject to a number of constraints on the minimum distance between breakpoints and on the minimum trend change at each breakpoint. the method is tested with three climate time series. index terms: 1610 global change: atmosphere (0315, 0325); 3309 meteorology and atmospheric dynamics: climatology (1620); 3299 mathematical geophysics: general or miscellaneous. citation: tome', a., and p. m. a. miranda (2004), piecewise linear fitting and trend changing points of climate parameters, geophys. res. lett. 31, l02207, doi:10.1029/2003gl019100.
How many types of screen?
the output of the screening exercise is a classification of the project in any of the three categories. in case of high risk or moderate/partial risk a brief description of the risks identified and terms of reference for a climate risk assessment would also be prepared
How they might be classified in a climate risk screening?
be classified in a climate risk screening: example 1: bangladesh - hiv/aids prevention project (project id bdpe69933) objective to prevent large-scale outbreak of hiv epidemic, by scaling up ngo programs and strengthening the government's capacity to respond effectively to hiv and aids. climate risk screening country extremely susceptible to climate risks; frequent floods, droughts; expected to get worse due to climate change and sea level rise. many people at risk due to high population density (main source: world bank climate change and sustainable development study) no project components directly at risk
What were the indirect uses?
some indirect benefits (healthier population has higher coping capacity) hence, category 3: low/no risk, no risk assessment needed example 2: caribbean: mainstreaming adaptation to climate change project objective to facilitate the creation of an enabling environment for climate change adaptation in caribbean small island and coastal developing states
the output of the screening exercise is a classification of the project in any of the three categories. in case of high risk or moderate/partial risk a brief description of the risks identified and terms of reference for a climate risk assessment would also be prepared. the following are a few examples of recent or current projects and how they might be classified in a climate risk screening: example 1: bangladesh - hiv/aids prevention project (project id bdpe69933) objective to prevent large-scale outbreak of hiv epidemic, by scaling up ngo programs and strengthening the government's capacity to respond effectively to hiv and aids. climate risk screening country extremely susceptible to climate risks; frequent floods, droughts; expected to get worse due to climate change and sea level rise. many people at risk due to high population density (main source: world bank climate change and sustainable development study) no project components directly at risk. no maladaptation effects on external vulnerability. some indirect benefits (healthier population has higher coping capacity) hence, category 3: low/no risk, no risk assessment needed example 2: caribbean: mainstreaming adaptation to climate change project objective to facilitate the creation of an enabling environment for climate change adaptation in caribbean small island and coastal developing states. climate risk screening risk management is core goal of project. since it is by definition a risk management project, this project does not require a separate or additional risk assessment.
What are the resistance influenced by the genetic variability of population?
because unlike abiotic stresses, biotic stress resistance is influenced by genetic variability in the pest/pathogen population
What defined the virulence in the populations?
the nature of the pathogen/insect-pest, and diversity of virulence in the populations
What is the feature of generating adequate stress?
availability of suitable sites (hot spots), screening methodologies/protocols for generating adequate disease/insect-pest pressures, and tracking resistance
breeding for disease and insect resistance requires an understanding of parasite biology and ecology, disease cycles and drivers influencing the evolution of plant-pathogen interactions, because unlike abiotic stresses, biotic stress resistance is influenced by genetic variability in the pest/pathogen population. as a result of the evolving pest/pathogen populations and the changes in fitness favoring new pathotypes/biotypes, improving resistance to biotic stresses has been a long-term focus of agricultural researchers. the long-term success of breeding for disease or insect-pest resistance will depend on a more in-depth and clear understanding of (i) the nature of the pathogen/insect-pest, and diversity of virulence in the populations; (ii) the availability, diversity, and type of genetic resistance; (iii) availability of suitable sites (hot spots), screening methodologies/protocols for generating adequate disease/insect-pest pressures, and tracking resistance; (iv) selection environments and methodologies for rapidly generating multiple stress resistant inbred lines, and their use in hybrid or variety development.
What may be the role of the landscape around a forest plot?
landscape connectivity may facilitate ecosystem adaptation and the adaptive capacity can be reduced by stresses outside the forest
Which are the techniques that species can use to adapt to climate change?
species can adapt to climate change through phenotypic plasticity (acclimatisation), adaptive evolution, or migration to suitable sites
How climate change will reduce biodiversity and why?
global warming may require migration rates much faster than those observed during postglacial times and hence has the potential to reduce biodiversity by selecting for highly mobile and opportunistic species
we need a better understanding of the factors that enhance or limit the adaptive capacity of forests (julius and west 2008), including the role of the landscape around a forest plot, as landscape connectivity may facilitate ecosystem adaptation and the adaptive capacity can be reduced by stresses outside the forest. species can adapt to climate change through phenotypic plasticity (acclimatisation), adaptive evolution, or migration to suitable sites (markham 1996; bawa and dayanandan 1998). without these options, species will decline and ultimately become extinct (noss 2001). evidence from coupled climate and vegetation models suggests that global warming may require migration rates much faster than those observed during postglacial times and hence has the potential to reduce biodiversity by selecting for highly mobile and opportunistic species (malcolm et al. 2002; pearson 2006). it has been reported that species richness and diversity in a forest ecosystem can contribute to resistance and resilience, the most compelling explanation being the redundancy provided by multispecies membership in critical functional groups (walker 1992, 1995; peterson et al. 1998). diversity of functional groups, in addition to diversity of species within groups, also appears to promote ecological resistance (noss 2001).
What did Latif, Barnett, Neelin, and Weng all propose?
are there local and basin-scale atmospheric responses to the sst anomalies in the kuroshio extension that could establish a closed loop of atmosphere-ocean coupled decadal variability such as that proposed by latif and barnett (1994) and neelin and weng (1999
What is shown in Figure 14?
figure 14 shows sst, net surface heat flux, precipitation, and wind stress curl anomalies along 40degn as a function of longitude and time
What is the purpose of the latent heat flux components?
the latent heat flux components dominate the net surface heat flux response
we have established that basin-scale anomalous wind stress curl forcing causes decadal sst anomalies in the kuroshio extension. are there local and basin-scale atmospheric responses to the sst anomalies in the kuroshio extension that could establish a closed loop of atmosphere-ocean coupled decadal variability such as that proposed by latif and barnett (1994) and neelin and weng (1999)? figure 14 shows sst, net surface heat flux, precipitation, and wind stress curl anomalies along 40degn as a function of longitude and time. note that all variables have been low-pass filtered to retain periods longer than 10 yr. sst anomalies clearly exhibit 16-yr variability as well as eastward propagation in the western half of the basin, consistent with fig. 3. net surface heat flux anomalies propagate along with the sst anomalies and respond to, rather than force, them as discussed previously. the latent heat flux components dominate the net surface heat flux response (not shown). precipitation anomalies also exhibit eastward propagation with enhanced (diminished) precipitation over warm (cool) sst anomalies. finally, wind stress
What do oil prices depend on?
the oil price depends more on cumulative fossil fuel supply
Why are initial natural gas prices are less sensitive to resource assumptions?
low-cost natural gas is relatively more abundant than low-cost oil in all cases, and therefore the initial natural gas prices are less sensitive to resource assumptions
What can lead to an increase of the global average coal price?
the very pessimistic assumption of low cost coal availability (only 25% of coal reserves are assumed) in the low fossil case leads to a 60% increase of the global average coal price
fig. 5 shows the sensitivity of global average oil prices. the oil price depends more on cumulative fossil fuel supply than on energy demand driven by gdp growth. the difference is significant in the near term as changes in fossil supply induce immediate price differences. the short-term oil price grows at a higher rate in the low fossils case reaching 13.8us$ per gj in 2030, whereas it is significantly lower in the high fossils case. even in the low fossils case the oil price is lower than in the iea (2011) assumptions, and in the high fossil scenario it would be less than half. low-cost natural gas is relatively more abundant than low-cost oil in all cases, and therefore the initial natural gas prices are less sensitive to resource assumptions (see fig. s10). in the longer term, fossil fuel supply is more important for natural gas prices than demand growth. the ratio of gas to oil prices over time is nearly the same in all baseline scenarios, except for the high fossils case in which the ratio is closer to unity. near-term coal prices are generally the same with one exception: the very pessimistic assumption of low cost coal availability (only 25% of coal reserves are assumed) in the low fossil case leads to a 60% increase of the global average coal price.
Why do hunting and pastoral people live mobile lives?
mobility and the option to access resources across an extensive area are, for both hunting and pastoral peoples, essential to the maintenance of their cultures and livelihoods (ayantunde et al., 2011
Name one advantage of mobility lifestyle?
they constitute a key component of community resilience. mobility provides a mechanism for managing areas with low fertility and sparse vegetation
Describe Pastrolism
galvin (2009: 191) describes pastoralism as a system whereby pastoralists 'access forage and water across space and time through reciprocal rights to common pool resources sometimes belonging to other people.' these rights to use another group's property are the basis for the nonexclusive tenure and landuse systems common to pastoralism (behnke, 1995; turner, 1999). according
mobility and the option to access resources across an extensive area are, for both hunting and pastoral peoples, essential to the maintenance of their cultures and livelihoods (ayantunde et al., 2011). they constitute a key component of community resilience. mobility provides a mechanism for managing areas with low fertility and sparse vegetation. galvin (2009: 191) describes pastoralism as a system whereby pastoralists 'access forage and water across space and time through reciprocal rights to common pool resources sometimes belonging to other people.' these rights to use another group's property are the basis for the nonexclusive tenure and landuse systems common to pastoralism (behnke, 1995; turner, 1999). according
What kind of analysis provide an ideal basis for anthropogenic climate change?
long time series with frequent observations, over large regions and over multiple climate cycles provide an ideal basis for interpreting recent anthropogenic climate change. longer term palaeo-ecological data can also provide valuable baselines for assessing climate impacts
What kind of response variables provide statistically reliable results?
many different response variables may be derived from some datasets. the most statistically reliable response variables will generally have the largest sample size (e.g. using quantiles of distribution limits rather than the northerly most sighting of a single individual) and will be formulated to address the proposed hypotheses (e.g. north - south distributional changes may be irrelevant in regions with east - west currents). nonconventional response variables may also reveal new patterns, such as considering changes in ecological variability rather than changes in the mean
What should be used if we are using time-series data for analysis?
emporal autocorrelation should be considered in analysis if using time series data. temporal autocorrelation patterns can often be reduced using filters
we suggest that the issues discussed in this review should be considered when planning and conducting analyses in climate change ecology, and also when interpreting the reliability of published results from other studies. a summary of our suggestions is included below and are ordered roughly according to the sequence that they might be most useful. these suggestions are equally applicable to marine and terrestrial studies. 1 consider how spatial and temporal resolution of data will influence the strength of inferences about drivers of change. for example, long time series with frequent observations, over large regions and over multiple climate cycles provide an ideal basis for interpreting recent anthropogenic climate change. longer term palaeo-ecological data can also provide valuable baselines for assessing climate impacts. 2 formulate alternative hypotheses for causal relationships between the ecological and climate variables. in some cases, observational studies can be coupled with experimental studies that shed light on the mechanisms driving change. in formulating alternative hypotheses, consider important drivers of ecological change, such as climate variability, ecosystem dynamics, other anthropogenic drivers of change (e.g. eutrophication, overfishing) and interactive effects. where possible, data should be obtained on these drivers. 3 identify response variables. many different response variables may be derived from some datasets. the most statistically reliable response variables will generally have the largest sample size (e.g. using quantiles of distribution limits rather than the northerly most sighting of a single individual) and will be formulated to address the proposed hypotheses (e.g. north - south distributional changes may be irrelevant in regions with east - west currents). nonconventional response variables may also reveal new patterns, such as considering changes in ecological variability rather than changes in the mean. 4 formulate the identified processes as a statistical model or a series of models. ideally, the models will include all drivers of change identified in step 2. where possible, model-based approaches should be used rather than data transformations. where temporal data cannot be obtained on key drivers, indirect approaches can be useful, such as comparisons among species. furthermore, application of analytical methods beyond those traditionally used by ecologists (i.e. correlation and linear regression) will shed new light on the understanding of climate impacts. promising methods rarely used in ecology include tests of cointegration, wavelets for the analysis of ecological cycles and spatio-temporal models. 5 temporal autocorrelation should be considered in analysis if using time series data. temporal autocorrelation patterns can often be reduced using filters,
What the previous academic research on climate scepticism has tended to focus more on?
previous academic research on climate scepticism has tended to focus more on the way it has been organized, its tactics and its impact on policy outputs than on its prevalence in the media
Where were most of the literature centred on?
most of the literature has centred on the usa, where scepticism first appeared in an organized and politically effective form
What contrasts does this letter presents?
this letter contrasts the way climate scepticism in its different forms is manifested in the print media in the usa and five other countries (brazil, china, france, india and the uk), in order to gain insight into how far the us experience of scepticism is replicated in other countries
received 14 june 2012 accepted for publication 7 september 2012 published 4 october 2012 online at stacks.iop.org/erl/7/044005 previous academic research on climate scepticism has tended to focus more on the way it has been organized, its tactics and its impact on policy outputs than on its prevalence in the media. most of the literature has centred on the usa, where scepticism first appeared in an organized and politically effective form. this letter contrasts the way climate scepticism in its different forms is manifested in the print media in the usa and five other countries (brazil, china, france, india and the uk), in order to gain insight into how far the us experience of scepticism is replicated in other countries. it finds that news coverage of scepticism is mostly limited to the usa and the uk; that there is a strong correspondence between the political leaning of a newspaper and its willingness to quote or use uncontested sceptical voices in opinion pieces; and that the type of sceptics who question whether global temperatures are warming are almost exclusively found in the us and uk newspapers. sceptics who challenge the need for robust action to combat climate change also have a much stronger presence in the media of the same two countries. keywords: global climate change, international media, climate scepticism, usa, right-wing politics
How many leaves were used in this treatment?
relative water content, water content, and specific leaf area were determined on both the youngest fully expanded leaves and the whole rosette on eight leaves or rosettes per treatment
How was mean leaf thickness determined?
mean leaf thickness was estimated on the youngest fully expanded leaf using a linear displacement transducer (5-mm full scale; solartron) incorporating a compression spring. this allowed imposing a moderate force to maintain the 0.5-mm2
relative water content, water content, and specific leaf area were determined on both the youngest fully expanded leaves and the whole rosette on eight leaves or rosettes per treatment. fresh weight was scored immediately after excision, fresh weight after rehydration after the leaf or the rosette was left floating on deionized water at 4  c in the dark for 24 h, and dry weight after the leaf or the rosette was dried in an oven at 70  c for 3 d. mean leaf thickness was estimated on the youngest fully expanded leaf using a linear displacement transducer (5-mm full scale; solartron) incorporating a compression spring. this allowed imposing a moderate force to maintain the 0.5-mm2
What becomes particulary apparent when considering extreme weather events?
the urgent need for improved numerical models and scenarios becomes particularly apparent when considering extreme weather events
How does the importance of extreme events for the European economy and environment demonstrated during recent years?
the importance of extreme events for the european economy and environment has been demonstrated in dramatic fashion during the last few years with a number of serious events affecting the european continent, including major flooding events in central europe (may 1999 and august 2002), the southern alps (october, 2000), and the uk (october/november 2000), severe storms accompanied by avalanches in the alps (february 1999), storm surges in the north sea (december 1999) and major wind damage in central europe (december 1999) and scandinavia (january 2005); and the unprecedented summer heat wave affecting large areas of western and central europe in 2003
the urgent need for improved numerical models and scenarios becomes particularly apparent when considering extreme weather events. the importance of extreme events for the european economy and environment has been demonstrated in dramatic fashion during the last few years with a number of serious events affecting the european continent, including major flooding events in central europe (may 1999 and august 2002), the southern alps (october, 2000), and the uk (october/november 2000), severe storms accompanied by avalanches in the alps (february 1999), storm surges in the north sea (december 1999) and major wind damage in central europe (december 1999) and scandinavia (january 2005); and the unprecedented summer heat wave affecting large areas of western and central europe in 2003. each of these events caused fatalities and tremendous capital damage.
What two scales are most appropriate for our analysis?
household and community
What types of governments play a relatively minor role in determining adaptive capacity at these sites?
national and local governments
our socioeconomic survey provided an adaptive capacity index for 29 communities based on eight quantitative indicators (methods). both climate change and the capacity of communities to adapt to it are multi-scale issues, with the latter incorporating individual, household, community, and national-level organization. adaptive capacity can be characterized at each of these scales, but we considered the household and community scales to be most appropriate for our analysis. first, because national and local governments play a relatively minor role in determining capacity at these sites; second, because of the distinctness of rural coastal communities; and third, because practical initiatives to increase adaptive capacity typically focus on the community scale (smit wandel 2006). thus, our indicators of adaptive capacity mainly focus on the household and community scale, although national-level differences in development and government investment are reflected in the material assets and local infrastructure indicators. each indicator was normalized then combined as a weighted score to provide a scale of adaptive capacity that also ranged from 0-1 (methods, fig. 2). we plotted the communities' mean adaptive capacity against the predicted susceptibility of adjacent reefs to bleaching
Which decade was the warmest?
the 1990s were the warmest decade
Which year was the warmest single year since 1861?
1998 was the warmest single year since 1861
What activities are responsible for most of this warming?
human activities are responsible for most of this warming
as we enter a new century, it is apparent that people have already altered the climates in which they live and will alter them even more dramatically in the coming decades. we know from the third assessment of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc 2001) that over the past century average surface temperatures across the globe have increased by 0.6 oc, and we now have stronger evidence that human activities are responsible for most of this warming. we also know that the 1990s were the warmest decade and 1998 was the warmest single year since 1861. these ongoing and future changes in climate will continue to alter nature's life-support systems for human life in many parts of the globe: through an ongoing rise in global average sea level, increases in precipitation over most midand high-latitudes of the northern hemisphere, increased intensity and frequency of droughts, floods, and severe storms, and as yet unforeseen abrupt changes and extreme climatic events. meanwhile, decades will pass before the current human efforts to reduce ongoing climate change will register their effects. in short, time is at a premium. the impacts of these human-induced changes in climate, although in their early stages, are showing up in shrinking glaciers, thawing permafrost regions, longer growing seasons in midand high-latitude agricultural areas, shifts in plant and animal ranges, and declines in some plant and animal populations. but these effects now in progress only suggest the much more farreaching changes likely to come. major global-warming threats to human security and wellbeing across the planet include diverse risks (box 1).
What countries are particularly vulnerable to sea level rise due to climate change?
small island states
What is climate change is likely to heavily impact?
coral reefs, fisheries and other marine-based resources
What disasters are sea-level rises expected to exacerbate?
inundation, storm surges, erosion and other coastal hazards
small island states are particularly vulnerable to sea level rise due to climate change. according to the ipcc: sea-level rise is expected to exacerbate inundation, storm surges, erosion and other coastal hazards, thus threatening vital infrastructure, settlements and facilities that support the livelihood of island communities. (...) there is strong evidence that under most climate change scenarios, water resources in small islands are likely to be seriously compromised. (...) climate change is likely to heavily impact coral reefs, fisheries and other marine-based resources. (...) it is very likely that subsistence and commercial agriculture on small islands will be adversely affected by climate change.100
What is Christopher W. Swanston's role in the research?
christopher w. swanston is a research ecologist, u.s. department of agriculture, forest service, northern research station, 410 macinnes dr., houghton, mi 49931
Who was the blind peer reviewer for this study?
it received a blind peer review administered by dr. jill baron of the u.s. geological survey
christopher w. swanston is a research ecologist, u.s. department of agriculture, forest service, northern research station, 410 macinnes dr., houghton, mi 49931; steven g. mcnulty is an ecologist, u.s. department of agriculture, forest service, southern research station, 920 main campus dr., venture center 2, suite 300, raleigh, nc 27606; and maria k. janowiak is a research scientist, michigan technological university, school of forest resources and environmental science, 1400 townsend dr., houghton, mi 49931. this publication was developed by the westwide climate initiative, a collabora tion of the pacific northwest, pacific southwest, and rocky mountain research stations of the u.s. forest service, with assistance from the northern and south ern research stations. it received a blind peer review administered by dr. jill baron of the u.s. geological survey.
Compare and contrast the migrating tendencies of 1970s and that of today?
farmers spoke of large numbers of whole families migrating in response to severe droughts in the 1970s and many remaining away permanently, whereas today families migrated to cities for construction work during the non-agricultural season but it was not a permanent migration
What is the nature of qualitative exercise of decision making on migration?
in the study villages, farmers reported in qualitative exercises that the decision whether to migrate and who migrates were taken jointly by men and women, however the specific decision of where to migrate was taken by men
What information can we gather about the life of migrant labourers from the study?
some studies have documented the hazardous conditions that migrants may encounter, including exploitation of labourers from mahbubnagar district by labour contractors (olsen and ramana murthy, 2000) and the employment of women and children from anantapur in waste collection in hyderabad whose living conditions are without basic amenities (carped, 2003). this demonstrates that farmers in this region no longer relied only on farming in drought years, and both men and women were likely to seek employment elsewhere. it has been suggested elsewhere that migration can adversely affect family stability and that the change in demography can lead to the deterioration of natural resources through neglect (deb et al., 2002). there is anecdotal evidence from the study area that attempts were made to maintain family stability by using new modes of communication; it was reported that men who migrated purchased mobile phones for their wives so that they could call them to check in and to continue to provide inputs to on-farm decision making when they were away from the family. how accessibility to new technology might mitigate the effects of migration on those that remain at home, particularly in light of the expected future agricultural and long term economic pressures of climate change remains to be seen
in focus group discussions, farmers spoke of large numbers of whole families migrating in response to severe droughts in the 1970s and many remaining away permanently, whereas today families migrated to cities for construction work during the non-agricultural season but it was not a permanent migration. in some cases the husband migrated and the rest of the family stayed behind. in the study villages, farmers reported in qualitative exercises that the decision whether to migrate and who migrates were taken jointly by men and women, however the specific decision of where to migrate was taken by men. other studies in andhra pradesh have shown that migration in search of wage labour is a major coping strategy of households affected by drought (world bank, 2006; laxmaiah and vijayaraghavan in rao, et al., 2005). some studies have documented the hazardous conditions that migrants may encounter, including exploitation of labourers from mahbubnagar district by labour contractors (olsen and ramana murthy, 2000) and the employment of women and children from anantapur in waste collection in hyderabad whose living conditions are without basic amenities (carped, 2003). this demonstrates that farmers in this region no longer relied only on farming in drought years, and both men and women were likely to seek employment elsewhere. it has been suggested elsewhere that migration can adversely affect family stability and that the change in demography can lead to the deterioration of natural resources through neglect (deb et al., 2002). there is anecdotal evidence from the study area that attempts were made to maintain family stability by using new modes of communication; it was reported that men who migrated purchased mobile phones for their wives so that they could call them to check in and to continue to provide inputs to on-farm decision making when they were away from the family. how accessibility to new technology might mitigate the effects of migration on those that remain at home, particularly in light of the expected future agricultural and long term economic pressures of climate change remains to be seen.
Why some parts of the leading REOFs aren't very clear?
it is not clear that they contribute in a significant way to subseasonal variability in surface meteorology
What is 250hPa subseasonal V-wind REOFs?
the associated rotated principal components or rpcs
What does the correlations shows regarding to Monte Carlo approach?
the results show, first of all, that merra provides very good estimates of both the temperature and precipitation variability, and in the case of the surface temperature provides information over the oceans that is not available from the gridded station observations
while the leading reofs are important contributors to the upper tropospheric variability, it is not clear that they contribute in a significant way to subseasonal variability in surface meteorology. to examine this, we compute the correlations between the leading 250hpa subseasonal v-wind reofs (the associated rotated principal components or rpcs) and subseasonal precipitation and surface temperature using both merra and independent observations. figs 4 and 5 show examples of the correlations for reof 1 and reof 4, respectively. correlations with absolute values greater than 0.27 are significant at the 5% level based on the monte carlo approach described in section 2. the results show, first of all, that merra provides very good estimates of both the temperature and precipitation variability, and in the case of the surface temperature provides information over the oceans that is not available from the gridded station observations. these results give us confidence that we can also use merra to estimate the forcing of these waves (see next section).
How elevation data were processed ?
the elevation data were processed using the swat-arcview interface, subdividing the catchment into 25 sub-basins
Why  DEM was used?
the dem was used to estimate all routing characteristics that were kept unchanged for the remainder of the study
Explain about  HRU?
the dominant soil and landuse were determined resulting in one hru, i.e. one unique soil type and land use combination per sub-basin. each subbasin was assigned a runoff curve number based on the hydrological soil group, cover type and management practices as described previously
a 50 x 50m raster digital elevation map was available. gridded soil type (boorman et al. 1995) and the ite land cover (fuller, 1993) were available. the elevation data were processed using the swat-arcview interface, subdividing the catchment into 25 sub-basins. the dem was used to estimate all routing characteristics that were kept unchanged for the remainder of the study. the dominant soil and landuse were determined resulting in one hru, i.e. one unique soil type and land use combination per sub-basin. each subbasin was assigned a runoff curve number based on the hydrological soil group, cover type and management practices as described previously. six rainfall stations provided daily rainfall measurements for the 1986-1990 period. daily measurements of maximum/minimum and average air temperature were available for one station. the actual management practices included fertiliser applications in february, march and in april; the average fertiliser application rate is around 105 kg ha-1 for nitrogen and 19 kg ha-1 of phosphorus. the variables used during the calibration-validation exercise included daily water flow, suspended sediment, nitrate and ortho-phosphorus concentrations (measured on a weekly basis) covering the 1986-1990 period and were provided by the environment agency of england and wales, the land ocean interaction study (tindall and moore, 1997), and the uk ministry for agriculture fisheries and food.
What are the adaptation strategies  suggested for planted forests ?
a large number of adaptation strategies have been suggested for planted forests, including changes in management intensity, hardwood/softwood species mix, timber growth, harvesting patterns within and between regions, rotation periods, salvaging dead timber, shifting to species or areas more productive under the new climatic conditions, landscape planning to minimize fire and insect damage, adjusting to altered wood size and quality, and adjusting fire management systems (34-36
what  the adaptation strategies are suggested to control insect damage ?
adaptation strategies to control insect damage can include prescribed burning for reducing forest vulnerability to increased insect outbreaks, nonchemical insect control (e.g., baculoviruses), and adjusting harvesting schedules, so that those stands most vulnerable to insect defoliation would be harvested preferentially
What is the likely gap  between potential adaptations and realized actions or shortcomings of adaptation strategies?
however, as with other primary industry sectors, there is likely to be a gap between potential adaptations and realized actions. for example, large areas of forests, especially in developing countries, receive minimal direct human management (38), limiting adaptation opportunities. even in more intensively managed forests where adaptation activities may be feasible (37), the long time lags between planting and harvesting trees will complicate decisions, because adaptation may take place at multiple times during a forestry rotation
a large number of adaptation strategies have been suggested for planted forests, including changes in management intensity, hardwood/softwood species mix, timber growth, harvesting patterns within and between regions, rotation periods, salvaging dead timber, shifting to species or areas more productive under the new climatic conditions, landscape planning to minimize fire and insect damage, adjusting to altered wood size and quality, and adjusting fire management systems (34-36). adaptation strategies to control insect damage can include prescribed burning for reducing forest vulnerability to increased insect outbreaks, nonchemical insect control (e.g., baculoviruses), and adjusting harvesting schedules, so that those stands most vulnerable to insect defoliation would be harvested preferentially. under moderate climate changes, these proactive measures may potentially reduce the negative economic consequences of climate change (37). however, as with other primary industry sectors, there is likely to be a gap between potential adaptations and realized actions. for example, large areas of forests, especially in developing countries, receive minimal direct human management (38), limiting adaptation opportunities. even in more intensively managed forests where adaptation activities may be feasible (37), the long time lags between planting and harvesting trees will complicate decisions, because adaptation may take place at multiple times during a forestry rotation.
what is the reason for stress in large number of areas in the midwest
a number of areas in the midwest are already under significant stress due to human activities and expansion throughout the region
Does the impact of potential changes in drought depend only on predicted scenario of change?
the impact of potential changes in drought or precipitation regimes will depend not only on the predicted scenario of change, but on the type of forest ecosystem and the climatic conditions to which it is currently adapted
List any one scenario that lead to plant growth?
increased nitrogen levels in the atmosphere may also promote plant growth, but could potentially pollute water resources (johnson et al. 2000). central to ecosystem welfare are the potential impacts of climate change on water distribution and resources throughout the area
a number of areas in the midwest are already under significant stress due to human activities and expansion throughout the region. with a large population and the emphasis on farming and other managed land uses throughout the midwest, many of the natural ecosystems of the region are threatened both directly and indirectly. although conversion of land from grassland or forest to agriculture or structural development results in direct habitat loss for plant and animal species, landscape fragmentation is a more subtle but equally worrisome problem. as habitats are fragmented and isolated into smaller and smaller refuges, between-site migration rates may decrease, leading to extinction in amphibians (blaustein et al. 1994) and possibly other species. forest ecosystems are expected to experience a shift in composition, including animal species, and location in response to changes in temperature and precipitation patterns across the region. ultimately, the impact of potential changes in drought or precipitation regimes will depend not only on the predicted scenario of change, but on the type of forest ecosystem and the climatic conditions to which it is currently adapted. although early model predictions of climate change impacts suggested extensive forest dieback and species migration, more recent analysis suggest that catastrophic dieback will be a local phenomenon, and changes in forest composition will be a relatively gradual process (hanson and weltzin 2000). if climate change occurs as rapidly as is predicted, then some species particularly those with heavy seeds may not be able to respond to the rapid changes and local extinctions are expected (thompson et al. 1998). forest pests will also move northward with the shift in forest location due to warmer temperatures. the indirect effects of climate change on forests, mediated by alterations of disturbance regimes or the actions of pests and pathogens, may accelerate climate-induced change in forests (loehle and leblanc 1996). co2 fertilization will help to spur plant growth, but - as with agricultural crops - this effect may also be offset by the damages due to increased ozone levels. enhanced carbon fixation during non-stressed periods, driven by the fertilization effect of elevated co2, may compensate for reduced availability of soil moisture (hanson and weltzin 2000). however, changes in ambient levels of ozone and/or acidic deposition can alter basic processes of water, carbon, and nutrient allocation by trees (mclaughlin and percy 1999). increased nitrogen levels in the atmosphere may also promote plant growth, but could potentially pollute water resources (johnson et al. 2000). central to ecosystem welfare are the potential impacts of climate change on water distribution and resources throughout the area. we have already seen how precipitation is projected to increase in the winter and spring months, but decrease 350 d.j. wuebbles and k. hayhoe
What impact does the expansion of livestock grazing have on fires?
on a global scale, an overall decline in fire over the past 150 years has been ascribed to a global expansion of intensive livestock grazing and expansion of agriculture, both of which have reduced landscape fuel connectivity (marlon and others 2008 2013 and resulted in rather abrupt fire regime changes
How does livestock grazing affect the fire frequency in forest ecosystems?
intensive livestock grazing in forest ecosystems may have even stronger consequences, as it prevents grass fires and allows woody species to recruit due to reduced fire frequency. these woody species create ladder fuels capable of carrying fires into the canopy (van wagner 1977 
Does livestock grazing reduce grass fuel loads?
although natural grazing by megaherbivores maintains grass-dominated ecosystems, intense grazing by livestock may produce the opposite effect of reducing grass fuel loads
although natural grazing by megaherbivores maintains grass-dominated ecosystems, intense grazing by livestock may produce the opposite effect of reducing grass fuel loads. illustrative of this process is the policy changes in texas, usa, during the 2009 wildfire catastrophe. with the anomalous drought conditions, grassland fires were seemingly unstoppable and in response, some nature reserves changed their policy of livestock exclusion to bringing livestock in for the purpose of controlling fuels. on a global scale, an overall decline in fire over the past 150 years has been ascribed to a global expansion of intensive livestock grazing and expansion of agriculture, both of which have reduced landscape fuel connectivity (marlon and others 2008 2013 and resulted in rather abrupt fire regime changes. intensive livestock grazing in forest ecosystems may have even stronger consequences, as it prevents grass fires and allows woody species to recruit due to reduced fire frequency. these woody species create ladder fuels capable of carrying fires into the canopy (van wagner 1977 ). such an effect is to be expected in open forest types where fire spread is dependent on herbaceous surface fuels, as in some parts of the southwestern usa (savage and swetnam 1990 ). a similar model has been used to explain the apparent shrub encroachment into many grasslands around the world (for example, van auken 2000 ). disease outbreaks in herbivores can also lead to complex trophic cascades regulating fire activity. for instance, the wildebeest population explosion in serengeti was due to the eradication of rinderpest in the 1960s and in turn was responsible for an abrupt reduction of fire activity, with a consequent increase in tree density and carbon fixation (holdo and others 2009 ).
What are the primary environmental gradients across the range of this study?
climate and photoperiod
What is favored by selection in northern populations?
traits associated with a longer growing season, such as slower phenological development
Who found selection for increased plant height within in a locally adapted population of Impatiens pallida characterized by short stature?
bennington and mcgraw
the primary environmental gradients across the range of this study are climate and photoperiod. other site-specific environmental factors such as soils, herbivory, and competition are not expected to be clinally arrayed. consequently, it is likely that these factors contribute to noise rather than pattern in the data. the finding of clinal patterns despite the noise that arises from uncontrolled site-specific factors lends stronger support to the inference that climate and/or photoperiod govern the patterns reported here. nevertheless, replication of this experiment either spatially or temporally would increase confidence in the results because the current experimental design confounds the effects of climate zone and site. previous studies of c. fasciculata and other species have demonstrated that selection regimes can vary temporally and over relatively small spatial scales (kalisz 1986; gibbs and grant 1987; kelly 1992; gilbert et al. 1996), although other studies have shown temporal and spatial stability of selection for some traits (rice and mack 1991). to the extent that the spatial gradient in climate across the great plains parallels temporal change in climate into the future, this study suggests that a dine in selection will shift north and different trait values will be favored in natural populations. traits associated with a longer growing season, such as slower phenological development, may be favored by selection in northern populations. likewise, selection is likely to favor traits that confer higher fitness in more drought-prone environments, such as thicker leaves. the adaptive hypothesis for one trait in this study was not supported; plants with fewer leaves were not favored in the hotter and drier environment, despite a greater potential for water conservation. common-garden studies in the greenhouse consistently showed a dine in leaf number with southern plants having fewer leaves (etterson 2001). the unexpected direction of selection may be attributable to plastic responses of plants grown in ok, where all plants had relatively few leaves. if the phenotypic distribution could have been extended to include plants having more leaves, selection may have favored reduced leaf number. alternatively, small plants in ok (primarily mn genotypes) may have had low fecundity for reasons other than leaf number. several other studies have found selection in the opposite direction than expected based on standing ecotypic variation. bennington and mcgraw (1995) found selection for increased plant height within in a locally adapted population of impatiens pallida characterized by short stature. likewise, andersson (1996) found a positive relationship between plant height and fitness within a synthetic hybrid population having an extended phenotypic range for height in a site that is typically occupied by plants of a prostrate ecotype of crepis tectorum.
What are the alternative modeling strategies used for findings about the climate-policy ramp?
the findings about the climate-policy ramp have survived the tests of multiple alternative modeling strategies, different climate goals, alternative specifications of the scientific modules, and more than a decade of revisions in integrated assessment models
what are the sources of the highest-return investments in a world where capital is productive?
in a world where capital is productive, the highest-return investments today are primarily in tangible, technological, and human capital, including research and development on low-carbon technologies
what are the dependencies of exact mix and timing of emissions reductions?
the exact mix and timing of emissions reductions depends upon details of costs, damages, and the extent to which climate change and damages are non-linear and irreversible
the findings about the climate-policy ramp have survived the tests of multiple alternative modeling strategies, different climate goals, alternative specifications of the scientific modules, and more than a decade of revisions in integrated assessment models. the logic of the climate-policy ramp is straightforward. in a world where capital is productive, the highest-return investments today are primarily in tangible, technological, and human capital, including research and development on low-carbon technologies. in the coming decades, damages are predicted to rise relative to output. as that occurs, it becomes efficient to shift investments toward more intensive emissions reductions. the exact mix and timing of emissions reductions depends upon details of costs, damages, and the extent to which climate change and damages are non-linear and irreversible.
Whatâ€™s NASA got to do with climate change?
climate change and the great barrier reef: a vulnerability assessment part ii: species and species groups coastal topography or bathymetry (the extent and slope of coastal plains) influences the frequency and duration of inundation and thus modifies exposure to sea level rise, with truncated, steeply sloping coastlines having the greatest exposure. tidal range and sediment dynamics, in conjunction with other climatic and biological variables, will also influence the impact of sea level rise on mangrove growth and survival (see section 9.2.5). both mangroves and salt marsh plants have their roots in the marine environment, but for most of the time have their leaves in the air, taking up gaseous co2 via their stomata during photosynthetic carbon gain
What is the greenhouse effect?
both mangroves and salt marsh plants have their roots in the marine environment, but for most of the time have their leaves in the air, taking up gaseous co2 via their stomata during photosynthetic carbon gain. stomata are sensitive to co2 concentrations, temperature, humidity and salinity of soils, and thus mangrove and salt marsh productivity is likely to be affected by enhanced co2, ultraviolet b (uvb) radiation, air and sea temperature and altered patterns of rainfall19 20,55 (table 9.1). additionally, mangrove species have differing tolerances to environmental conditions54,17,112. thus some species are likely to be more sensitive to climate change than others, ultimately resulting in changes in species composition of the tree community and concomitant alterations in ecosystem function and associated faunal communities
How do we know what greenhouse gas and temperature levels were in the distant past?
this may suggest that the area of mangrove dominated by rhizophoraceae could expand in the future, possibly at the expense of other species. species of mangroves from the family rhizophoraceae are also particularly sensitive to physical damage inflicted by wind or hail. these species cannot be coppiced, having no epicormic buds from which to resprout after canopy damage177,16. species from the rhizophoraceae dominate forests of northern australia and elsewhere in the tropics. thus, rhizophora forests may be particularly adversely affected by enhanced cyclonic frequency or intensity and other disturbances that damage aerial parts of trees
climate change and the great barrier reef: a vulnerability assessment part ii: species and species groups coastal topography or bathymetry (the extent and slope of coastal plains) influences the frequency and duration of inundation and thus modifies exposure to sea level rise, with truncated, steeply sloping coastlines having the greatest exposure. tidal range and sediment dynamics, in conjunction with other climatic and biological variables, will also influence the impact of sea level rise on mangrove growth and survival (see section 9.2.5). both mangroves and salt marsh plants have their roots in the marine environment, but for most of the time have their leaves in the air, taking up gaseous co2 via their stomata during photosynthetic carbon gain. stomata are sensitive to co2 concentrations, temperature, humidity and salinity of soils, and thus mangrove and salt marsh productivity is likely to be affected by enhanced co2, ultraviolet b (uvb) radiation, air and sea temperature and altered patterns of rainfall19 20,55 (table 9.1). additionally, mangrove species have differing tolerances to environmental conditions54,17,112. thus some species are likely to be more sensitive to climate change than others, ultimately resulting in changes in species composition of the tree community and concomitant alterations in ecosystem function and associated faunal communities. the paleontological data indicate that the rhizophoraceae had greater dominance during periods of past sea level rise than they have presently47,57,99,102. this may suggest that the area of mangrove dominated by rhizophoraceae could expand in the future, possibly at the expense of other species. species of mangroves from the family rhizophoraceae are also particularly sensitive to physical damage inflicted by wind or hail. these species cannot be coppiced, having no epicormic buds from which to resprout after canopy damage177,16. species from the rhizophoraceae dominate forests of northern australia and elsewhere in the tropics. thus, rhizophora forests may be particularly adversely affected by enhanced cyclonic frequency or intensity and other disturbances that damage aerial parts of trees.
Describe Risk communication research ?
risk communication research typically finds that people must feel personally threatened for messages to influence behavior
What does political science literature on sociotropic motivations suggests?
the political science literature on sociotropic motivations suggests that it is not perceptions of personal threat but rather perceptions of societal threat that influence people's support for public policies
Explain about nationally representative?
respondents to a nationally representative survey were asked to assess the seriousness of global warming as a threat to (1) themselves, (2) future generations, and (3) all life on earth
risk communication research typically finds that people must feel personally threatened for messages to influence behavior.78however, the political science literature on sociotropic motivations suggests that it is not perceptions of personal threat but rather perceptions of societal threat that influence people's support for public policies.79our current research is suggesting that both forms of perceived risk--personal and societal--may be relevant in shaping climaterelevant behaviors (cr, unpublished observations, 2008). respondents to a nationally representative survey were asked to assess the seriousness of global warming as a threat to (1) themselves, (2) future generations, and (3) all life on earth. they were also asked which of 14 pro-environmental behaviors they perform. correlating these two sets of measures, behavior was found to be more highly correlated to the perceived threat of global warming to future generations (r  0.25) than to the perceived threat to self (r  0.21) or to all life on earth (r  0.22; n  11,269, p  0.001, two-tailed). these correlations suggest that people choose environmental behaviors for multiple reasons, with concern for human progeny as the strongest of the three.
Which one is proposed as  a new basal angiosperm family of herbaceous aquatic plants.?
archaefructaceae is proposed as a new basal angiosperm family of herbaceous aquatic plants
What is the age of the family  as per  the fossils  of Archaefructus liaoningensis ?
this family consists of the fossils archaefructus liaoningensis and a sinensis sp. nov. complete plants from roots to fertile shoots are known. their age is a minimum of 124.6 million years from the yixian formation, liaoning, china
What are the morphological features of Archaefructaceae family?
their reproductive axes lack petals and sepals and bear stamens in pairs below conduplicate carpels
archaefructaceae is proposed as a new basal angiosperm family of herbaceous aquatic plants. this family consists of the fossils archaefructus liaoningensis and a sinensis sp. nov. complete plants from roots to fertile shoots are known. their age is a minimum of 124.6 million years from the yixian formation, liaoning, china. they are a sister clade to all angiosperms when their characters are included in a combined three-gene molecular and morphological analysis. their reproductive axes lack petals and sepals and bear stamens in pairs below conduplicate carpels. the fossil record provides information about the evolution of major groups of organisms living on earth today as well as those that have become extinct. the earliest history of flowering plants is poorly documented. some of the sparse data from fossils have been accommodated into current phylogenetic models. current phylogenetic studies 1, 2 and recent paleobotanic finds 3 support the nature of the basal angiosperms amborella and nymphaeales) consistent with combined multiple gene and morphologic analyses 4- 6 ). newly discovered fossils reveal a combination of unique characters. these fossils consist of new material of archaefructus liaoningensis 7 and a. sinensis sp. nov. 8 ), a new species preserved as nearly whole plants in various stages of reproductive maturity. the fossils were recovered from the lower part of the upper jurassic/lower cretaceous yixian formation 9 in beipiao and lingyuan of western liaoning, china (41deg12  n, 119deg22  e). the formation is at least 124.6 million years old 10 and may be as old as uppermost upper jurassic 11 ). all aspects of these plants are known, including
What can be assumed for the number of potential new invaders?
we assume that the number of potential new invaders should be higher for large species pools compared to smaller ones. this assumption is related to the hypothesis of sax brown (2000) who suggested that colonists from large, species-rich regions possess superior quality as invaders due to the historical contingency of evolution
What is the most complete database on alien plant species?
glonaf is a continuing data collection comprising country-wise numbers of native and established alien vascular plant species. it is by far the most complete database on alien plant species distributions worldwide
native vascular plant data. we assume that the number of potential new invaders should be higher for large species pools compared to smaller ones. this assumption is related to the hypothesis of sax brown (2000) who suggested that colonists from large, species-rich regions possess superior quality as invaders due to the historical contingency of evolution. this can be expected because invaders native to such large species-rich regions sampled a wider range of environmental variation and encountered more interactions with other native species in their evolutionary history in the native range. indeed, kalusov  a et al. (2014) showed that the number of alien plant species increases with the size of the donor species pool. we therefore considered the numbers of native vascular plant species s per donor country i as a predictor variable in the model (eq. 2). data of native plant species numbers were compiled for 166 countries and taken from the recently assembled beta version of the glonaf database ('global naturalized alien flora,' access date: november 15, 2013, fig. s3). glonaf is a continuing data collection comprising country-wise numbers of native and established alien vascular plant species. it is by far the most complete database on alien plant species distributions worldwide. glonaf has been developed by a group of invasion ecologists that are part of the author team of this article.
How have global temperatures changed in the past 1500 years.
the patterns of temperature change imply dynamical responses of climate to natural radiative forcing changes involving el nino and the north atlantic oscillation - arctic oscillation
what tendencies has the medieval period's temperature indicated?
this period is marked by a tendency for la nina - like conditions in the tropical pacific
when was the greatest cooling over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere continents?
the coldest temperatures of the little ice age are observed over the interval 1400 to 1700 c.e
global temperatures are known to have varied over the past 1500 years, but the spatial patterns have remained poorly defined. we used a global climate proxy network to reconstruct surface temperature patterns over this interval. the medieval period is found to display warmth that matches or exceeds that of the past decade in some regions, but which falls well below recent levels globally. this period is marked by a tendency for la nina - like conditions in the tropical pacific. the coldest temperatures of the little ice age are observed over the interval 1400 to 1700 c.e., with greatest cooling over the extratropical northern hemisphere continents. the patterns of temperature change imply dynamical responses of climate to natural radiative forcing changes involving el nino and the north atlantic oscillation - arctic oscillation.
Who were the people  involved in the discussions and in commenting of the paper?
this work in progress has benefited greatly from discussions with paul flondor, anthony patt, dagmar schr"oter, gerhard petschel-held, matthias l"udeke, carlo jaeger and the participants of the first newater wb2 meeting (oxford, uk, 18-22 april 2005). tom downing, klaus eisenack, hans-martin f"ussel, anders levermann, robert marschinski, karen o'brien, anthony patt, colin polsky, dagmar schr"oter, pablo suarez, frank thomalla and saskia werner commented on earlier versions of this paper
Mention those who contributed for the Funding of the paper?
funding has been provided by the deutsche forschungsgemeinschaft (grant kl 611/14) and the research directorate-general of the european union (project newater; contract number 511179 (goce)). k.s. kavi kumar was funded by the start visiting scientist program. starbucks coffee company provided inspiring working environments for the authors
Who are the main reasons for the paper result?
the paper is a result of co-operation between the pik eva project and the pirsiq activity
this work in progress has benefited greatly from discussions with paul flondor, anthony patt, dagmar schr"oter, gerhard petschel-held, matthias l"udeke, carlo jaeger and the participants of the first newater wb2 meeting (oxford, uk, 18-22 april 2005). tom downing, klaus eisenack, hans-martin f"ussel, anders levermann, robert marschinski, karen o'brien, anthony patt, colin polsky, dagmar schr"oter, pablo suarez, frank thomalla and saskia werner commented on earlier versions of this paper. funding has been provided by the deutsche forschungsgemeinschaft (grant kl 611/14) and the research directorate-general of the european union (project newater; contract number 511179 (goce)). k.s. kavi kumar was funded by the start visiting scientist program. starbucks coffee company provided inspiring working environments for the authors. the paper is a result of co-operation between the pik eva project and the pirsiq activity.
Who are most affected by the impace of climate change?
those with least adaptive capacity: poor countries and the poor in developing countries
What are the factors that influence a population's ability to adapt to climate change?
control over land, money, credit and tools; low dependency ratios; good health and personal mobility; household entitlements and food security; secure housing in safe locations; and freedom from violence
Why are women least likely to adapt to climate change than men?
epresent the majority of low-income earners, they generally have less education than men and are thus less likely to be reached by extension agents and they are often denied rights to property and land, which makes it difficult for them to access credit and agricultural extension services
"even in a society effective in catalysing adaptation, actions that address gender and other forms of differential vulnerability are essential" mary thomas, dfid, personal communication, 2007) it is now widely acknowledged that "the impacts [of climate change] will be felt more acutely by those with least adaptive capacity: poor countries and the poor in developing countries" (lambrou and piana 2006: 5). it is also recognised that "the vulnerability or susceptibility of a population group to the effects of climate change depends on the resilience of the surrounding natural landscape unit and society's capacity to adapt" (ibid). at the household level, the ability to adapt to changes in the climate depends on control over land, money, credit and tools; low dependency ratios; good health and personal mobility; household entitlements and food security; secure housing in safe locations; and freedom from violence (lambrou and piana 2006). as such, women are often less able to adapt to climate change than men since they represent the majority of low-income earners, they generally have less education than men and are thus less likely to be reached by extension agents and they are often denied rights to property and land, which makes it difficult for them to access credit and agricultural extension services. moreover, gender biases in institutions often reproduce assumptions that it is men who are the farmers as a result, new agricultural technologies - including the replacement of plant types and animal breeds with new varieties intended for higher drought or heat tolerance - are rarely available to women farmers (lambrou and piana 2006).
Classification of terrain and ground-water anomalies?
the pacific northwest region of the united states (see map, fig. 1) is characterized by complex terrain and land-water contrasts, which produce strong spatial gradients in the regional climate and in the atmospheric processes controlling that climate
The effects of narrow mountain ranges?
while global simulations indicate large-scale patterns of change associated with natural and anthropogenic climate forcing, they cannot capture the effects of narrow mountain ranges, complex land-water interactions, or regional variations in land use
What are the methods for creating climate change scenarios?
northwest watersheds supplying municipal energy and water are often 50-200 km in horizontal extent with important smaller-scale terrain features. because global model grids can significantly mischaracterize the topography, land use, and land-water boundaries at this scale, any climate response driven by surface interactions (e.g., snow, orographic effects, vegetation effects) may not be reliable. therefore, methods for producing climate change scenarios that can fully account for such effects are required. a number of methods, ranging from statistical downscaling to regional climate models, have been used to apply climate model results to local impacts analyses
the pacific northwest region of the united states (see map, fig. 1) is characterized by complex terrain and land-water contrasts, which produce strong spatial gradients in the regional climate and in the atmospheric processes controlling that climate. while global simulations indicate large-scale patterns of change associated with natural and anthropogenic climate forcing, they cannot capture the effects of narrow mountain ranges, complex land-water interactions, or regional variations in land use. a major question in climate science is whether such mesoscale geographical features will significantly alter the local temperature and precipitation trends under climate change. for many resource allocation decisions, information is required at very small scales. for example, northwest watersheds supplying municipal energy and water are often 50-200 km in horizontal extent with important smaller-scale terrain features. because global model grids can significantly mischaracterize the topography, land use, and land-water boundaries at this scale, any climate response driven by surface interactions (e.g., snow, orographic effects, vegetation effects) may not be reliable. therefore, methods for producing climate change scenarios that can fully account for such effects are required. a number of methods, ranging from statistical downscaling to regional climate models, have been used to apply climate model results to local impacts analyses.
How much time spent on this review?
this review is a synthesis of work spanning the last 25 years
What is this review based on?
it is largely based on applying ideas from graph theory to construct climate networks and investigating their underlying topological properties
What is the central point?
the central point is that a network of coupled nonlinear subsystems may at times begin to synchronize
this review is a synthesis of work spanning the last 25 years. it is largely based on applying ideas from graph theory to construct climate networks and investigating their underlying topological properties. these studies have ultimately led to the identification of climate subsystems/major modes and to how their collective behavior explains decadal variability. the central point is that a network of coupled nonlinear subsystems may at times begin to synchronize. if during synchronization the coupling between the subsystems increases the synchronous state may, at some coupling strength threshold, be destroyed shifting climate to a new region. this climate shift manifests itself as a change in global temperature trend. this mechanism, which is consistent with the theory of synchronized chaos, appears to be a very robust mechanism of the climate system. it is found in the instrumental records, in forced and unforced climate simulations, as well as in proxy records spanning several centuries.
Who take the initial fsa configuration?
in the choice for transition technologies many oil and gas firms take their initial fsa configurations as starting point for the development of climate-induced fsas, thus showing the importance of path dependencies (cf. helfat, 1997
Which part mines were strong?
mnes that already have a strong position in the production of natural gas, such as bg group, bp, eni, exxonmobil, halliburton, norsk hydro, and royal dutch/shell, conceive the changing context due to the emergence of climate change as an opportunity to strengthen this segment of their firms
Define exemplifies of ExxonMobil?
exxonmobil (2004) exemplifies this: as a leading supplier of clean burning natural gas, exxonmobil is well positioned to contribute to efforts to address greenhouse gas emissions through fuel switching
in the choice for transition technologies many oil and gas firms take their initial fsa configurations as starting point for the development of climate-induced fsas, thus showing the importance of path dependencies (cf. helfat, 1997). mnes that already have a strong position in the production of natural gas, such as bg group, bp, eni, exxonmobil, halliburton, norsk hydro, and royal dutch/shell, conceive the changing context due to the emergence of climate change as an opportunity to strengthen this segment of their firms. exxonmobil (2004) exemplifies this: as a leading supplier of clean burning natural gas, exxonmobil is well positioned to contribute to efforts to address greenhouse gas emissions through fuel switching.
What origin of the modern human species is generally accepted ?
an african origin of the modern human species is generally accepted
According to the passage, what processes are much debated ?
the evolutionary processes involved in the speciation, geographical spread, and eventual extinction of archaic humans outside of africa are much debated
What began during the buildup to the Last Glacial Maximum?
modern human migrations and interactions began during the buildup to the last glacial maximum
although an african origin of the modern human species is generally accepted, the evolutionary processes involved in the speciation, geographical spread, and eventual extinction of archaic humans outside of africa are much debated. an additional complexity has been the recent evidence of limited interbreeding between modern humans and the neandertals and denisovans. modern human migrations and interactions began during the buildup to the last glacial maximum, starting about 100,000 years ago. by examining the history of other organisms through glacial cycles, valuable models for evolutionary biogeography can be formulated. according to one such model, the adoption of a new refugium by a subgroup of a species may lead to important evolutionary changes.
Who organized data for analysis?
martyn gorman and sandra telfer for helping organise the data for analysis
What Islands Council was acknowledged?
orkney islands council and the late j. m. robertson kindly provided access to facilities on eynhallow. we thank the natural environment research council and the leverhulme trust for financial support
acknowledgements / we are indebted to the late prof. george dunnet, who developed and directed the long-term field study which these findings build upon. thanks also to the many other colleagues who assisted with data collection, to martyn gorman and sandra telfer for helping organise the data for analysis, and to members of the ecoclim project for comments on work in progress. jean-dominique lebreton, morten frederiksen and christophe barbraud provided constructive criticism of earlier drafts. orkney islands council and the late j. m. robertson kindly provided access to facilities on eynhallow. we thank the natural environment research council and the leverhulme trust for financial support.
Where the data files came from?
most of the datasets come from meteorological stations operated by the china meteorological administration
Which includes synchronization?
as with all global datasets these potentially include inhomogeneities resulting from relocation of stations and changes in the local environment
Define climate change
a lack of observed data above 5000 m asl limits our understanding of surface climate change in the tp. thus it is important to use other resources, such as remote sensing, reanalyses, and regional climate models to improve our ability to understand climate change in the tp
these studies have been made possible by the use of many difference surface, reanalysis, and satellite datasets combined with climate model output. most of the datasets come from meteorological stations operated by the china meteorological administration. as with all global datasets these potentially include inhomogeneities resulting from relocation of stations and changes in the local environment. thus data quality and homogeneity assessment are of great importance. it is critical to pay attention to data quality and homogenization when applying these datasets to examine change in the tp. in addition, a lack of observed data above 5000 m asl limits our understanding of surface climate change in the tp. thus it is important to use other resources, such as remote sensing, reanalyses, and regional climate models to improve our ability to understand climate change in the tp. however, the remote mountains and complex topography are handled in reanalyses and climate models have a strong influence on the results obtained. more comparative studies between different types of data sources will help us to understand which effects are real, and which are an artifact of data production methods.
What did the map depict?
the map depicts glaciers (white with blue border) in the himalayas and the major rivers that flow from them
What would happen if there is reduction of river flow occurs?
reductions of river flows will affect irrigated areas, but the potential for migration out of agricultural areas is hard to predict, and will depend on adaptation responses such as dam construction and more efficient irrigation technologies
Define broader impacts on food security?
broader impacts on food security for this highly populous region could be significant. in the absence of diversification and adaptation/mitigation measures, as water resources gradually diminish agriculture livelihoods will become unsustainable, and people may be forced to leave
the map depicts glaciers (white with blue border) in the himalayas and the major rivers that flow from them. these rivers support large irrigated areas (dark green) and major population centers (red), yet the glaciers that feed them are in retreat. reductions of river flows will affect irrigated areas, but the potential for migration out of agricultural areas is hard to predict, and will depend on adaptation responses such as dam construction and more efficient irrigation technologies. broader impacts on food security for this highly populous region could be significant. in the absence of diversification and adaptation/mitigation measures, as water resources gradually diminish agriculture livelihoods will become unsustainable, and people may be forced to leave. paradoxically, measures to store water and ward off a water crisis related to shrinking glaciers could result in further displacement and resettlement.
How do species historically respond to changing climate?
species historically respond to changing climate with distributional shifts, and many species are expected to lose current habitat representation in the future
What are some recommendations that have been made?
greater integration of species protection plans, natural resource management, research and development agendas across wider geographic areas, on longer time-scales, and involving more diverse actors than in current practice
What does Table 1 reflect?
recommendations for adaptation to regional policy and planning focus 
species historically respond to changing climate with distributional shifts, and many species are expected to lose current habitat representation in the future. in light of this, many recommendations call for greater integration of species protection plans, natural resource management, research and development agendas across wider geographic areas, on longer time-scales, and involving more diverse actors than in current practice. (1) long-term, regional perspective and (2) improved coordination among scientists, land managers, politicians and conservation organizations at regional scales are among the most frequently cited recommendations to protect biodiversity in the face of climate change (rank 10 and 6 respectively, see references in table 1 and for all ranks mentioned hereafter). increased interdisciplinary collaboration (rank 9) as well as regional-scale impact assessments are also frequently identified (rank 12). recommendations for adaptation to regional policy and planning focus on two completable 1 - continued
Which period has the most data to work with for this study?
the review focuses on the piacenzian (3.6-2.58 ma) for which a significant number of proxy data and modelling studies are now available allowing a relatively robust reconstruction of pliocene climates and environments
Which period has been the focus of Pliocene research?
the mid piacenzian warm period (~3.3 to 3.0 ma), sometimes shortened to mpwp, has been for many years the research focus
in this we will provide a compilation and overview of global pliocene terrestrial and marine environments reconstructed from proxy data and palaeoclimate model simulations. the review focuses on the piacenzian (3.6-2.58 ma) for which a significant number of proxy data and modelling studies are now available allowing a relatively robust reconstruction of pliocene climates and environments. the mid piacenzian warm period (~3.3 to 3.0 ma), sometimes shortened to mpwp, has been for many years the research focus of the international pliocene research, interpretation synoptic mapping initiative prism (dowsett et al., 2010) and the associated pliocene modelling intercomparison project (pliomip), a collaborative data analysis and climate modelling effort (haywood et al., 2010). we will finally use the overview of global pliocene environments to identify open questions and to provide an outlook on the future of pliocene research.
What is the topic of this section of the article?
this section of the article addresses the effects on ncd risks of climate change mitigation and adaptation responses
What caused GHG emissions to grow so significantly?
ghg emissions have grown largely as a result of industrialized societies' demand for everincreasing volumes of production and consumption, along with increasing numbers of consumers globally as a result of population growth
Where do the GHG emissions come from?
the associated ghg emissions arise largely from the energy, transportation, land use and forestry, agriculture, and building sectors (45
this section of the article addresses the effects on ncd risks of climate change mitigation and adaptation responses. the underlying determinants of ncds and of climate change overlap substantially. policy responses that aim to address common determinants may reduce ncd levels, could help avoid further climate change, and may assist in the management of existing climate change. ghg emissions have grown largely as a result of industrialized societies' demand for everincreasing volumes of production and consumption, along with increasing numbers of consumers globally as a result of population growth. the associated ghg emissions arise largely from the energy, transportation, land use and forestry, agriculture, and building sectors (45). each of these sectors is intimately linked with public health. for example, the makeup of the built environment and transport systems and the nature of global food systems shape the recognized behavioral risk factors associated with ncds (46, 47). climate change mitigation and adaptation policies therefore have the potential to impact on ncds and are explored now in detail (summary in table 2 ).
What ATP  stand for?
the atp approach stimulates policy makers to look at sensitivity of sectors and durability of
Give us an example of the water management in Netherlands.
in water management of the netherlands one scenario as best estimate was taken as basis for the current strategy. consequently, other scenarios and other possible futures which might have given useful information for the development of alternative adaptation strategies were ignored
the classical approach for the development of adaptation strategies is to use one or more climate scenarios as a starting point for impact assessment and define adaptation strategies based on the impacts. this top-down approach is useful to explore possible adaptation strategies. however, the results of such studies strongly depend on the chosen scenario(s) and the assumptions concerning scientific and socioeconomic uncertainties related to these issues. furthermore, each time new insights into climate change arise, physical boundary conditions alter and existing water management strategies are challenged. this poses an important pitfall to management. for example, in water management of the netherlands one scenario as best estimate was taken as basis for the current strategy. consequently, other scenarios and other possible futures which might have given useful information for the development of alternative adaptation strategies were ignored. a bottom-up approach, i.e., a vulnerability assessment of the management system, has received remarkably little attention so far. the majority of studies starts top-down with one or more climate change scenarios and then tries to design strategies. in a vulnerability assessment using atps presented in this paper, we answer the basic questions of decision makers: what are the first issues we will face as a result of climate change and when can we expect this? relating climate change directly to the current water management strategy and expressing uncertainty in terms of the period that the existing strategy will be effective (when will a critical point be reached) in a practical way provides valuable information about 'what' and 'when' to decision makers. the result is a better dialogue between the scientific and water management world. the atp approach stimulates policy makers to look at sensitivity of sectors and durability of
What Jean-Marc Barnola has provided?
jean-marc barnola generously provided densification model output for comparison with our results
Why Vin Morgan and an anonymous reviewer are being thanked?
vin morgan and an anonymous reviewer are thanked for helpful comments that improved the manuscript
antarctica. these periods correspond to the largest and longest interstadial events in greenland and antarctica in this time interval. it is not possible to establish, with these data, if this relationship holds for shorter-lived d-o events and possible antarctic counterparts. additional records are needed, particularly from higher accumulation rate sites in antarctica. acknowledgements this work was supported by multiple grants from the us nsf, office of polar programs. we thank leah bjerkelund for laboratory assistance, and the staff of the national ice core laboratory for curation. jean-marc barnola generously provided densification model output for comparison with our results. vin morgan and an anonymous reviewer are thanked for helpful comments that improved the manuscript. references
rise is one of the issues?
sea-level rise is one of the issues that brought human-induced climate change
Adaptation needs?
adaptation needs and costs were considered from the beginning
The global costs of protecting?
the global costs of protecting developed coasts against sea-level rise were first estimated by ipcc czms (1990
sea-level rise is one of the issues that brought human-induced climate change to the fore due to the large concentration of settlements and economic activity in low-lying coastal areas. the issue has been extensively assessed since the 1980s with the spectre of millions of environmental refugees as a worst-case impact. adaptation needs and costs were considered from the beginning, drawing on the extensive experience of coastal engineering and management, including on subsiding coasts. the global costs of protecting developed coasts against sea-level rise were first estimated by ipcc czms (1990). there have been updates of these costs based on several different methodologies as outlined below. however, other dimensions of climate change in coastal areas are less assessed and could substantially raise costs, for example in the case of more intense hurricanes, or coastal ecosystem changes such as coral reef degradation due to rising sea surface temperatures and falling ph of ocean waters (nicholls et al., 2007a).
Many research?
many research activities are important to systematic ecv observation since
What observation?
i) they provide supplemental observations, (ii) they seek better ways of meeting targets for accuracy, and (iii) they pioneer capabilities to measure new variables
Projects or systems?
yet, projects or systems based on research funding are generally not designed for transition to sustained monitoring of variables globally and over long time periods, often leading to partial, haphazard, intermittent coverage (keeling 1998; nisbet 2007; wunsch et al. 2013
many research activities are important to systematic ecv observation since (i) they provide supplemental observations, (ii) they seek better ways of meeting targets for accuracy, and (iii) they pioneer capabilities to measure new variables. yet, projects or systems based on research funding are generally not designed for transition to sustained monitoring of variables globally and over long time periods, often leading to partial, haphazard, intermittent coverage (keeling 1998; nisbet 2007; wunsch et al. 2013). recognition of variables as ecvs has helped alleviate issues and foster transition of research-based observational activities into a more sustained framework (e.g., wgms 2008; icos 2013).
For how long has there been a growing interest in school climate?
for more than a century, there has been a growing interest in school climate
Which departments have focused on school climate reform?
 recently, the u.s. department of education, center for disease control and prevention, institute for educational sciences, a growing number of state departments of education, foreign educational ministries, and unicef have focused on school climate reform as an evidence-based school improvement strategy that supports students, parents/guardians
What does the review focus on?
the review focuses on five essential dimensions of school climate: safety, relationships, teaching and learning, institutional environment, and the school improvement process
for more than a century, there has been a growing interest in school climate. recently, the u.s. department of education, center for disease control and prevention, institute for educational sciences, a growing number of state departments of education, foreign educational ministries, and unicef have focused on school climate reform as an evidence-based school improvement strategy that supports students, parents/guardians, and school personnel learning and working together to create ever safer, more supportive and engaging k-12 schools. this work presents an integrative review on school climate research. the 206 citations used in this review include experimental studies, correlational studies, literature reviews, and other descriptive studies. the review focuses on five essential dimensions of school climate: safety, relationships, teaching and learning, institutional environment, and the school improvement process. we conclude with a critique of the field and a series of recommendations for school climate researchers and policymakers.
What is an area of growing interest to researchers?
an area of growing interest to researchers is the affective dimension of climate change
In Canada, what does the evidence from research on ecological citizenship suggest?
in canada, evidence from research into ecological citizenship suggests that ecologically minded individuals are not only cognitively and behaviorally but also affectively more engaged
Where have there been similar findings?
similar findings emerged for some, but not other studies of pro-environmental behaviors in britain
an area of growing interest to researchers is the affective dimension of climate change, as it is believed to provide a critical link between knowledge and attitude on the one hand, and action on the other.40,98,144-147in canada, evidence from research into ecological citizenship suggests that ecologically minded individuals are not only cognitively and behaviorally but also affectively more engaged.148similar findings emerged for some, but not other studies of pro-environmental behaviors in britain.149,150even those most motivated to act struggle with making their actions meaningful in terms of emission reductions.84individuals tend to be more effectively engaged emotionally by positive messages, while appealing to fear has been found to be largely counterproductive.106
What is this an example of: "For example, what are the long-term observational trends, and what are their causes?"
the problem of regional climate change projections presents a range of challenges in terms of physical understanding, the observational record, climate models and the simulations that we perform with them
What new problems are posed by questions including "What are the relative roles of internal variability and forced response?"
these questions pose new problems of ocean-atmosphere-land interactions
What is the major source of uncertainty for regional precipitation projections?
for regional precipitation projections, we have shown that atmospheric circulation change is the major source of uncertainty (supplementary fig. s1
for global-mean temperature projections, aerosol effects and cloud response are leading sources of uncertainty in radiative forcing and climate feedback, respectively2. for regional precipitation projections, we have shown that atmospheric circulation change is the major source of uncertainty (supplementary fig. s1). in the tropics, the circulation is coupled with patterns of sst change, whereas in the extratropics, internal variability, random but organized into large-scale spatial patterns, exacerbates the circulation uncertainty. the problem of regional climate change projections presents a range of challenges in terms of physical understanding, the observational record, climate models and the simulations that we perform with them. for example, what are the long-term observational trends, and what are their causes? how sensitive are regional climate change patterns to forcing types with different spatial distributions (ghgs versus aerosols)? how can we predict robust patterns of circulation and precipitation change? how do systematic errors in models affect the change patterns? what are the relative roles of internal variability and forced response? these questions pose new problems of ocean-atmosphere-land interactions. understanding these interactions will allow us to reduce circulation uncertainty and build confidence in regional climate projections.
which area weighted connectivity formula was used
awcv n i =1avi cos( li) n i =1cos( li
which proportion was used for the grid area studied
the corresponding area of vertex v is proportional to the cosine of latitude lv 
what parameter is used to normalize the areas studied
awcv can be interpreted as the fraction of the earth's surface area a vertex is connected to awc is thus normalized to 0 <= awcv <= 1
avi. (2) vertices with exceptionally high degree centrality are usually referred to as hubs or supernodes we extend the use of this term to regions of spatially adjacent vertices with high degree centrality. 3.1.2 area weighted connectivity the area weighted connectivity awcv n i =1avi cos( li) n i =1cos( li) (3) is closely related to the degree centrality kv of v it corrects for the fact that in geographical networks defined on a grid, vertices correspond to regions of different area on the earth's surface. for the angularly equidistant grids considered in this work, the corresponding area of vertex v is proportional to the cosine of latitude lv (see sect. 2.1). awcv can be interpreted as the fraction of the earth's surface area a vertex is connected to awc is thus normalized to 0 <= awcv <= 1.
What is the transformation function?
the transformation function is a simple filter technique with a triangular distribution of the weights
What is required during the calibration period?
during the calibration period observed discharge values are required for each time step
What happens to the runoff generated from the response routine?
the runoff generated from the response routine is routed through a transformation function in order to get a proper shape of the hydrograph at the outlet of the subbasin
transformation function the runoff generated from the response routine is routed through a transformation function in order to get a proper shape of the hydrograph at the outlet of the subbasin. the transformation function is a simple filter technique with a triangular distribution of the weights. calibration and evaluation of the model result input data for the calculation are daily values of precipitation and air temperature and potential evapotranspiration for a representative station of the basin. for the potential evapotranspiration, normally monthly mean estimates are used, either measured or calculated. during the calibration period observed discharge values are required for each time step.
how many of the  total world electricity with geothermal resources?
it is considered possible to produce up to 8.3% of the total world electricity with geothermal resources, serving 17% of the world population
how many groups are divided for whether?
they can be divided broadly into two groups depending on whether they are related to young volcanoes and magmatic activity 
how much molten rock at temperatures ?
in such areas magmatic intrusions, sometimes with partly molten rock at temperatures above 1000degc, situated at a few km depth under the surface, heat up the groundwater
it is considered possible to produce up to 8.3% of the total world electricity with geothermal resources, serving 17% of the world population. thirty nine countries (located mostly in africa, central/south america, and the pacific) can potentially obtain 100% of their electricity from geothermal resources (dauncey, 2001). exploitable geothermal systems occur in a number of geological environments. they can be divided broadly into two groups depending on whether they are related to young volcanoes and magmatic activity or not. high-temperature fields used for conventional power production (with temperatures above 180degc) are mostly confined to the former group, but geothermal fields utilised for direct application of the thermal energy can be found in both groups. the temperature of the geothermal reservoirs varies from place to place depending on the geological conditions. high-temperature fields (> 180 degc) volcanic activity takes place mainly along so called plate boundaries (figure 5). according to the plate tectonics theory, the earth's crust is divided into a few large and rigid plates which float on the mantle and move relative to each other at average rates counted in centimetres per year (the actual movements are highly erratic). the plate boundaries are characterised by intense faulting and seismic activity and in many cases volcanic activity. geothermal fields are very common on plate boundaries, as the crust is highly fractured and thus permeable to water, and sources of heat are readily available. in such areas magmatic intrusions, sometimes with partly molten rock at temperatures above 1000degc, situated at a few km depth under the surface, heat up the groundwater. the hot water has lower density than the surrounding cold groundwater and therefore flows up towards the surface along fractures and other permeable structures.
From which energy to the other causes lower carbon emmissions?
transitions from coal to energy technologies having lower carbon emissions
How long before the impact in the carbon emmissions be seen?
carbon emissions will not substantially influence global climate until more than half a century passes
Which uncertainties can lead to the halving or doubling of quantitative results?
physical climate system uncertainties could thus potentially halve or double our quantitative results
our central result is that transitions from coal to energy technologies having lower carbon emissions will not substantially influence global climate until more than half a century passes, and that even large transitions are likely to produce modest reductions in future temperatures. these fundamental qualitative conclusions are robust, but our quantitative calculations incorporate important sources of uncertainty in representations of both the energy system and the physical climate system. we characterize uncertainty in energy system properties by presenting both high and low estimates from lifecycle analyses (e.g., figures 1 - 3 ). our model of the physical climate system is affected by uncertainties both in the relationship between greenhouse gas emissions and atmospheric concentrations and in the relationship between atmospheric concentrations and the resulting climate change. the ipcc 5 states that equilibrium climate sensitivity to a doubling of atmospheric co2 content 'is likely to lie between 2 and 4.5*c with a most likely value of approximately 3*c.' our model yields a climate sensitivity of 3.18*c per co2-doubling. physical climate system uncertainties could thus potentially halve or double our quantitative results. the impact of most of these uncertainties would apply equally to all technologies, however, so relative amounts of warming resulting from different technology choices are likely to be insensitive to uncertainties about the climate system.
What questions do they base climate predictions on?
one is not interested in whether there is a significant deflection of the storm track northward in the atlantic during a specific week in january of a given year, but rather, whether the mean and variance of the storm track are large during several winter seasons and what the impact of this trend is on the overall poleward transport of heat in both the atmosphere and ocean
How long do they usually study the weather in a area before predictions?
the mean and variance of the storm track are large during several winter seasons
an area with great importance for future developments in climate prediction involves simplified stochastic modeling of nonlinear features of the coupled atmosphere/ocean system. the practical reasons for such needs are easy to understand. in the foreseeable future, it will be impossible to resolve the effects of the coupled atmosphere/ocean system through computer models with detailed resolution of the atmosphere on decadal time scales. however, the questions of interest also change. for example, for climate prediction, one is not interested in whether there is a significant deflection of the storm track northward in the atlantic during a specific week in january of a given year, but rather, whether the mean and variance of the storm track are large during several winter seasons and what the impact of this trend is on the overall poleward transport of heat in both the atmosphere and ocean. the idea of simplified stochastic modeling for unresolved space-time scales in climate modeling is over twenty years old and emerged from fundamental papers by hasselman and leith in the atmosphere/ocean community, there is a recent flourishing of ideas utilizing simple stable linear langevin stochastic equations to model and predict short-term and decadal climate changes such as el nino [12, 21], the north atlantic oscillation [8, 22], and mid-latitude storm tracks [1, 3, 5, 23, 25] with notable positive results, but this simplified stochastic model has also failed in some circumstances in this paper, we develop a systematic mathematical strategy for stochastic climate modeling and also explore some of the new phenomena that occur in the resulting stochastic models. the key assumptions in the systematic theory developed below are that the climate variables in a given nonlinear system necessarily evolve on longer time scales than the unresolved variables and that the nonlinear interaction among unresolved variables can be represented stochastically in a suitable simplified fashion (see the detailed discussion in section 2 of this paper). these two assumptions are implicit in much of the work in stochastic climate modeling
What must be assessed and reduced from its current level to allow meaningful predictions?
the uncertainty in assessing total anthropogenic greenhouse gas and aerosol impacts on climate must be much reduced from its current level to allow meaningful predictions of future climate
What effects of aerosols must be taken into account with effects on climate?
in addition, evaluation of aerosol effects on climate must take into account high spatial and temporal variation of aerosol amounts and properties as well as the aerosol interactions with clouds and precipitation
What does the way forward require when estimating aerosols?
thus, the way forward requires more certain estimates of aerosol radiative forcing, which in turn requires better observations, improved models, and a synergistic approach
the uncertainty in assessing total anthropogenic greenhouse gas and aerosol impacts on climate must be much reduced from its current level to allow meaningful predictions of future climate. this uncertainty is currently dominated by the aerosol component. in addition, evaluation of aerosol effects on climate must take into account high spatial and temporal variation of aerosol amounts and properties as well as the aerosol interactions with clouds and precipitation. thus, the way forward requires more certain estimates of aerosol radiative forcing, which in turn requires better observations, improved models, and a synergistic approach. from the observational perspective, the high priority tasks are: * maintain current and enhance future satellite capabilities for measuring geographical and vertical distribution of aerosol
In which way has the stationarity assumption been used?
the assumption of stationarity has been used throughout the development of infrastructure for managing water resources
How is hydrological frequency analysis used?
ydrologic frequency analysis is used to estimate the frequency and severity of floods and droughts and is used here as an example of a traditional analysis in need of updating
What was the purpose of the research?
research aimed at properly incorporating the likely effects of climate change on floods and low flows is crucial to prudent water-management decisions. this research might also address questions about the risks of assuming stationarity in water resources planning and management
nonstationarity presents many challenges to the nation's water resource managers. the assumption of stationarity has been used throughout the development of infrastructure for managing water resources. under the stationary system paradigm, which has traditionally been employed in long-range planning (introduced in section 3.4), planning scenarios are based on stationary climate conditions. the system projection paradigm (introduced in section 3.4), which allows conditions to evolve over time, is a potentially more useful and appropriate option for long-range planning for a changing climate. however, for water-planning entities that currently use a stationary system paradigm to portray system possibilities, a transition to a system projection paradigm may introduce technical and educational challenges. many other types of analyses are also integrally linked to stationary concepts (for example, hydrologic statistics such as flood frequency, low-flow frequency, and flow duration, and design criteria). widely accepted methods for incorporating nonstationarity do not yet exist. while research proceeds, efforts can be made to bring analyses up to date, so that they use the most recently available data. hydrologic frequency analysis is used to estimate the frequency and severity of floods and droughts and is used here as an example of a traditional analysis in need of updating. research aimed at properly incorporating the likely effects of climate change on floods and low flows is crucial to prudent water-management decisions. this research might also address questions about the risks of assuming stationarity in water resources planning and management. the hydrologic community continues to have substantial uncertainty about the magnitude of these future changes, and only limited research has been published that addresses incorporating nonstationarity into frequency analyses. the consideration of climate change may make it more important that frequency analyses be updated to represent the most applicable data and methods. the usgs slowly continues to improve and update flood-frequency and regionalregression analyses that expand frequency estimates to ungaged areas (fig. 10). figure 10 indicates there are 10 states whose floodfrequency regional-regression analysis is close to or greater than 1\\x04 years old. for example, although work is underway
What is the native of St. John's Wort?
st. john's wort is native to europe, north africa, and asia and was introduced to north and south america, south africa, new zealand, and australia
When did the plants germinates?
plants germinate in the spring; young plants initially send out prostrate shoots that eventually bolt, flower, and set seed in late summer. after setting seed, plants senesce until winter rainfall stimulates new growth
On what  St. John's Wort  is diverse about?
st. john's wort has an extremely diverse mode of reproduction
st. john's wort is native to europe, north africa, and asia and was introduced to north and south america, south africa, new zealand, and australia. it is commonly found in disturbed sites, along roadsides, in overgrazed rangeland, and in abandoned fields. plants germinate in the spring; young plants initially send out prostrate shoots that eventually bolt, flower, and set seed in late summer. after setting seed, plants senesce until winter rainfall stimulates new growth. st. john's wort has an extremely diverse mode of reproduction. individuals vary from obligate outcrossers to obligate apomicts. the majority of plants from most populations are, however, facultative pseudogamous apomicts; individuals produce upwards of 90% of their seed apomictically but some fraction of seeds are produced via outcrossing (arnholdt-schmitt 2000; matzk et al. 2001, 2003). we obtained leaf trait data from plants grown in field common gardens, and biomass allocation data from greenhouse-grown plants, to determine whether clinal patterns in traits among native european and introduced north american plants were similar. we used leaf trait and performance measures (size and fecundity) of european populations in a common garden in washington to determine whether there was directional phenotypic selection on these traits. finally, to quantify phenotypic plasticity, explore how this varied between native and introduced populations, and determine its adaptive value, we compared differences in leaf traits and performance among populations grown in common gardens in washington and spain.
What are the limited areas used for simulation?
we used the limited-area numerical weather prediction fifth-generation pennsylvania state university- national center for atmospheric research (ncar) mesoscale model (mm5; grell et al. 1995) for our simulations
Explain about nonhydrostatic model?
this nonhydrostatic model simulates and predicts mesoscale atmospheric circulation and is typically used on a regional scale. the distinction between urban and nonurban areas within its land surface scheme, which is based on the community noah land surface model (lsm; ek et al. 2003; chen and dudhia 2001a,b), is handled by modifications of specific land surface parameters
Define the physical schemes of the model?
although the physical schemes of the model can represent dominant impacts of urban land cover on the atmosphere, the near-surface processes are insufficiently resolved. as the model was not explicitly designed to distinguish between boundary layer and canopy layer phenomena, such as heat island or limited evaporation in urban areas, the effects of the complex urban surface on the energy balance could be parameterized only indirectly
we used the limited-area numerical weather prediction fifth-generation pennsylvania state university- national center for atmospheric research (ncar) mesoscale model (mm5; grell et al. 1995) for our simulations. this nonhydrostatic model simulates and predicts mesoscale atmospheric circulation and is typically used on a regional scale. the distinction between urban and nonurban areas within its land surface scheme, which is based on the community noah land surface model (lsm; ek et al. 2003; chen and dudhia 2001a,b), is handled by modifications of specific land surface parameters. although the physical schemes of the model can represent dominant impacts of urban land cover on the atmosphere, the near-surface processes are insufficiently resolved. as the model was not explicitly designed to distinguish between boundary layer and canopy layer phenomena, such as heat island or limited evaporation in urban areas, the effects of the complex urban surface on the energy balance could be parameterized only indirectly. on the scale of our interest (10 km), geometrical properties of the urban canopy as well as thermal and radiative properties of heterogeneous urban materials become important. to account for this, we modified the existing land surface scheme for the urban land cover type using a singlelayer urban canopy model of masson (2000).
salt marshes?
mangroves, salt marshes and salt flats are particularly vulnerable to sea level rise
This scenario is likely?
this scenario is likely in areas of the gbr with high tidal ranges
This is partly?
this is partly because not all parts of the intertidal zone provide equivalent services
mangroves, salt marshes and salt flats are particularly vulnerable to sea level rise. increases in sea level should lead to an increase in the area of mangroves, and migration of mangroves, salt marsh and salt flats upslope. this scenario is likely in areas of the gbr with high tidal ranges, where rainfall is predicted to increase and where there are no barriers to landward migration. expansion of mangroves may be further enhanced with elevated co2, nutrient enrichment and warmer winter temperatures at southern latitudes. reductions in area of mangroves, salt marsh and salt flats will occur in response to sea level rise if the soil surface elevation of the wetlands cannot keep pace with rising sea level. this is most likely to occur in areas with low tidal ranges, where rainfall is reduced, where sediment inputs are not sufficient to contribute to the maintenance of surface elevation and where groundwater depletion leads to subsidence of sediments. additionally high temperatures, low humidity and more severe storms could also lead to reduced productivity, subsidence and erosion. the presence of human created barriers to landward migration of wetlands will have a significant negative impact on intertidal wetland cover. reductions in mangrove, salt marsh and salt flat area will decrease the level of ecosystem services they provide (table 9.3), but we do not know quantitatively how reductions in area of wetland will equate to reductions in ecosystem services. this is partly because not all parts of the intertidal zone provide equivalent services, eg seaward fringes of mangroves provide disproportional level of sediment trapping compared to landward forests95. however, we expect that loss of diversity of flora and fauna is likely with reductions in salt marsh area and encroachment of mangroves into fresh water marshes. sediment trapping, carbon sequestration and nutrient cycling will be reduced with declines in wetland cover resulting in higher turbidity and higher nutrient loading in nearshore waters. carbon and nutrient subsidies to nearshore waters would also be reduced resulting in reductions in the productivity of nearshore food webs (see chapter 19).
What are the conclusions of Pasadena ground site data ?
mielke et al. 2012] used the pasadena ground site data to conclude that nocturnal nitrogen oxides constitute a significant reservoir for nox at night, with clno2 alone contributing 21% on average to the total budget of nox oxidation products measured at the site. they further calculated that photolysis of clno2 during the study added a median of 0.8 ppbv of cl radicals and no2 to the pasadena boundary layer following sunrise
What was the suggestion from the stable isotropic measurement of aerosol nitrate ?
stable isotopic measurements of aerosol nitrate made from the r/v atlantis suggested significant differences in aerosol sources to the inshore marine boundary layers of the south and central coasts of california vicars et al. 2012
mielke et al. 2012] used the pasadena ground site data to conclude that nocturnal nitrogen oxides constitute a significant reservoir for nox at night, with clno2 alone contributing 21% on average to the total budget of nox oxidation products measured at the site. they further calculated that photolysis of clno2 during the study added a median of 0.8 ppbv of cl radicals and no2 to the pasadena boundary layer following sunrise. stable isotopic measurements of aerosol nitrate made from the r/v atlantis suggested significant differences in aerosol sources to the inshore marine boundary layers of the south and central coasts of california vicars et al. 2012]. this analysis concluded that nocturnal nitrogen oxide chemistry in continental outflow is an important source of aerosol nitrate to the south coast marine layer, while daytime oxidation of no2
What would happen to animals with high skeletal content?
animals with high skeletal content and trends of increasing size toward the poles would not be expected if the increased cost of calcification at low temperature limited skeletal construction
What has been noticed about the added cost of depositing CaCO3 from seawater?
the added cost of depositing caco3 from seawater has been used to explain the lack of durophagous predators and the thin shells of mollusks at high latitudes (arnaud 1974, vermeij 1978
What could explain the slow growth rates of ectotherms living in Antarctic marine environments?
the slow growth rates of ectotherms living in antarctic marine environments (arntz et al. 1994, peck 2002) could be an impediment to durophagy, because of the time required to produce effective crushing structures or viable architectural defenses
variation in the solubility of calcium carbonate (caco3) with latitude is often cited as an important factor shaping the polar marine fauna. durophagous fish and crustaceans utilize heavily calcified teeth and chelae, respectively, and heavy calcification is a mainstay of the antipredatory defenses of skeletonized prey. the solubility of caco3 varies inversely with temperature, being greater in polar waters than in the tropics (revelle fairbridge 1957). the added cost of depositing caco3 from seawater has been used to explain the lack of durophagous predators and the thin shells of mollusks at high latitudes (arnaud 1974, vermeij 1978). as a related matter, the slow growth rates of ectotherms living in antarctic marine environments (arntz et al. 1994, peck 2002) could be an impediment to durophagy, because of the time required to produce effective crushing structures or viable architectural defenses. some patterns are, however, difficult to explain if caco3 deposition is a major constraint at low temperature. many successful taxa in antarctica have high skeletonto-tissue ratios. for example, brachiopods both inside antarctica and at lower latitudes are 93-97.5% caco3 (peck 1993). also, groups of both heavily calcified invertebrates (e.g., solitary corals, crinoids, ophiuroids, and calcareous sponges) and lightly calcified taxa (e.g., nemerteans, anthozoans, and amphipods) have species that attain large size in antarctica (chapelle peck 1999, 2004). animals with high skeletal content and trends of increasing size toward the poles would not be expected if the increased cost of calcification at low temperature limited skeletal construction.
What are some examples of "bottlenecks" involving monetary cost or time?
the authors focus primarily on measures of the time or monetary cost of different bottlenecks (e.g., days to clear goods through customs, days to get a telephone line, sales lost to power outages
Where are obstacles for these costs lower?
for many of these costs, the obstacles are lower in china than in the south asian or latin american countries
What creates a good environment for investment and production?
the interaction of openness and sound investment climate creates a good environment for investment and production
:drawing on recently completed firm-level surveys in bangladesh, brazil, china, honduras, india, nicaragua, pakistan, and peru, this paper investigates the relationship between investment climate and international integration. these standardized surveys of large, random samples of firms in common sectors reveal how firms experience bottlenecks and delays in hard infrastructure such as power and telecom as well as in soft infrastructure such as customs administration. the authors focus primarily on measures of the time or monetary cost of different bottlenecks (e.g., days to clear goods through customs, days to get a telephone line, sales lost to power outages). for many of these costs, the obstacles are lower in china than in the south asian or latin american countries. there is also systematic variation across cities within countries. the authors estimate a probit function for the probability that a randomly chosen firm is foreign-invested and a separate probit for the probability that a randomly chosen firm is an exporter. these measures of international integration are higher where investment climate is better. for locations to take advantage of opportunities in the international market, they need good infrastructure and a sound regulatory environment. the interaction of openness and sound investment climate creates a good environment for investment and production. this paper helps explain why china has been so successful over the past decade, both in terms of integration and of rapid growth, while other countries have had varied success. jel classification: f02, economic integration and globalization; f21, foreign direct investment; o19, international linkages to development; o25, trade policy; o4, economic growth and aggregate productivity key words globalization, foreign direct investment, economic development. world bank policy research working paper 3323, june 2004 the policy research working paper series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. an objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. the papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. the findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. they do not necessarily represent the view of the world bank, its executive directors, or the countries they represent. policy research working papers are available online at http://econ.worldbank.org.
Gallup's annual survey Held in any year?
it came, then, as a disappointment--if not quite a surprise--when the headline announcing the results of gallup's annual survey in 2010 drew attention to an altogether different and more troubling trend. it read, "americans' global warming concerns continue to drop" (newport, 2010
Desrcibe environmental problems?
in one tantalizing fragment of a sentence, gallup had confirmed what many observers already suspected: the more people know about global warming, the less they seem to care. since 1989, gallup has used the same question to gauge public concern for a variety of environmental problems, the bundle of which shifts slightly from one year to the next
Which year started personally worried?
when asked in march 2010 how much they personally worried about eight different issues, the participants placed global warming in last place, well below various forms of air and water pollution, soil contamination, and the extinction of plant and animal species. just 28% of those polled said that they worried "a great deal" about global warming, which amounted to a decline of 13 percentage points compared with the previous 3 years (j. jones, 2010).5
it came, then, as a disappointment--if not quite a surprise--when the headline announcing the results of gallup's annual survey in 2010 drew attention to an altogether different and more troubling trend. it read, "americans' global warming concerns continue to drop" (newport, 2010). in one tantalizing fragment of a sentence, gallup had confirmed what many observers already suspected: the more people know about global warming, the less they seem to care. since 1989, gallup has used the same question to gauge public concern for a variety of environmental problems, the bundle of which shifts slightly from one year to the next. when asked in march 2010 how much they personally worried about eight different issues, the participants placed global warming in last place, well below various forms of air and water pollution, soil contamination, and the extinction of plant and animal species. just 28% of those polled said that they worried "a great deal" about global warming, which amounted to a decline of 13 percentage points compared with the previous 3 years (j. jones, 2010).5
Difference between uncertainties associated with the regressions and impact uncertainties?
the uncertainties associated with the regressions in these studies are measures of impact uncertainties: all of the studies use cross-section or panel data to estimate how climatic conditions affect economic outcomes (given today's technologies). by and large, the findings suggest that climate change is likely to be damaging, with negative impacts on agricultural yields, the frequency of civil conflicts, and economic growth rates (see the survey by dell, jones, and olken 2013). scientific and socioeconomic uncertainties interact, and accounting for their interaction is essential for developing plausible estimates of the effects of climate change on social and economic systems. such an end-to-end approach is rare in empirical work. an interesting exception is the article by burke et al. (2011) that examines the seven studies of the economic impact of climate change cited earlier. most of these studies use just one climate model to generate predictions about impacts. however, the ipcc uses more than twenty models for its predictions of climate change. in order to reflect the variation in scientific estimates, burke et al. (2011) reestimate the socioeconomic impacts in these seven studies using a full range of climate models
Describe the opinion of economists
they find that this increases the 95% confidence intervals around the central estimates of outcomes by as much as a factor of five and also changes the central estimates themselves. they also argue that failing to account fully for scientific uncertainty results in underestimates of the thickness of the tails of the error distributions, which, in conjunction with the increased confidence intervals, greatly increases the probability of extreme outcomes. economists have recently focused on the importance of extreme outcomes in policy evaluation (millner 2013
What is the econometric studies?
there are a limited number of econometric studies of the impacts of climate on socioeconomic systems (burke et al. 2009; dell, jones and olken 2008; deschenes and greenstone 2007; fisher hanemann and schlenker 2012; mendelsohn nordgaus and shaw 1994; schlenker hanemann and fisher 2005; schelnker and lobell 2010), with their main focus being on agriculture, although there has also been some work on conflict and economic growth
there are a limited number of econometric studies of the impacts of climate on socioeconomic systems (burke et al. 2009; dell, jones and olken 2008; deschenes and greenstone 2007; fisher hanemann and schlenker 2012; mendelsohn nordgaus and shaw 1994; schlenker hanemann and fisher 2005; schelnker and lobell 2010), with their main focus being on agriculture, although there has also been some work on conflict and economic growth. the uncertainties associated with the regressions in these studies are measures of impact uncertainties: all of the studies use cross-section or panel data to estimate how climatic conditions affect economic outcomes (given today's technologies). by and large, the findings suggest that climate change is likely to be damaging, with negative impacts on agricultural yields, the frequency of civil conflicts, and economic growth rates (see the survey by dell, jones, and olken 2013). scientific and socioeconomic uncertainties interact, and accounting for their interaction is essential for developing plausible estimates of the effects of climate change on social and economic systems. such an end-to-end approach is rare in empirical work. an interesting exception is the article by burke et al. (2011) that examines the seven studies of the economic impact of climate change cited earlier. most of these studies use just one climate model to generate predictions about impacts. however, the ipcc uses more than twenty models for its predictions of climate change. in order to reflect the variation in scientific estimates, burke et al. (2011) reestimate the socioeconomic impacts in these seven studies using a full range of climate models. they find that this increases the 95% confidence intervals around the central estimates of outcomes by as much as a factor of five and also changes the central estimates themselves. they also argue that failing to account fully for scientific uncertainty results in underestimates of the thickness of the tails of the error distributions, which, in conjunction with the increased confidence intervals, greatly increases the probability of extreme outcomes. economists have recently focused on the importance of extreme outcomes in policy evaluation (millner 2013;
What did the author quote?
this is significant," the lead author was quoted as saying in a press statement issued by his university, "because when people understand that scientists agree on global warming, they're more likely to support policies that take action on it
What is the step towards closing consensus gap?
making the results of our paper more widely-known," he continued, "is an important step toward closing the consensus gap"--between scientists who agree with one another about global warming and ordinary citizens who don't
"this is significant," the lead author was quoted as saying in a press statement issued by his university, "because when people understand that scientists agree on global warming, they're more likely to support policies that take action on it." "making the results of our paper more widely-known," he continued, "is an important step toward closing the consensus gap"--between scientists who agree with one another about global warming and ordinary citizens who don't--"and increasing public support for meaningful climate action" (university of queensland, 2013). the proposition that disseminating the results of erl study would reduce public conflict over climate change was an empirical claim not itself tested by the authors of the erl article. what sorts of evidence might one use (or have used) to assess it? opinion surveys are certainly relevant. they show, to start, that members of the u.s. general public--republican and democrat, religious and nonreligious, white and black, rich and poor--express
In how many years can a global climate be warmer?
temperatures projected for the end of the century may already represent the warmest global climate in over 2 million years
What is the environment like in the tropics?
such as the melting of all tropical glaciers, will punctuate an environment different than any in the evolutionary history of most modern species
What is the sign of emission reduction?
the importance of natural systems as a benchmark of emissions reduction is already recognized in international agreements
ultimately, no conservation system, no matter how large or dynamic, can succeed in the face of unlimited change. temperatures projected for the end of the century may already represent the warmest global climate in over 2 million years. landmark events, such as the melting of all tropical glaciers, will punctuate an environment different than any in the evolutionary history of most modern species. further changes may exceed the natural response capacity of a large number of species. political advocacy for emissions reductions is essential if biological changes are to be kept within manageable limits. the importance of natural systems as a benchmark of emissions reduction is already recognized in international agreements. the united nations framework convention on climate change (article 2) specifically recognizes the critical link between climate change and the natural capacity of ecosystems to adapt: "the ultimate objective of this convention is. .stabilization of ghg [greenhouse gas] concentrations in the atmosphere.
Which one is explain about fig.4.?
fig. 6 compares the use of fossil fuels, the net atmospheric co2 emissions from energy and industry and the co2 removal from the atmosphere through bio-energy combined with ccs in stabilization scenarios
What are the three noteworthy finding?
there are three noteworthy findings. first, coal use reacts most sensitively to climate change stabilization and is reduced by 5585% for the 550-e and 85-90% in the 450-e case. oil consumption declines much less. the variation of fossil fuel use with baseline assumptions is significantly reduced with climate policy
Which one getting the low price?
near term price reductions are only observed for coal. second, the cumulative consumption of oil exceeds the conve
the imposition of stabilization targets has strong impacts on the fossil energy sector. fig. 6 compares the use of fossil fuels, the net atmospheric co2 emissions from energy and industry and the co2 removal from the atmosphere through bio-energy combined with ccs in stabilization scenarios. there are three noteworthy findings. first, coal use reacts most sensitively to climate change stabilization and is reduced by 5585% for the 550-e and 85-90% in the 450-e case. oil consumption declines much less. the variation of fossil fuel use with baseline assumptions is significantly reduced with climate policy. the more stringent the stabilization target the smaller is the variation. this is due to the constraint on fossil fuel combustion that largely decouples fossil energy use from fossil fuel availability and energy demand. the decoupling is strongest for coal and weakest for oil. fig: s13 shows the response of fossil fuel prices to the reduced demand in the climate policy scenarios. near term price reductions are only observed for coal. second, the cumulative consumption of oil exceeds the conventional reserve and resource estimates of 11.6zj for both climate stabilization targets. for the 550-e case, cumulative consumption also exceeds the additional amount of non-conventional oil reserves (3.4zj). in contrast, non-conventional oil resources will be used only in the baseline cases without climate policy. natural gas consumption in all baseline and 550-e scenarios exceeds the total conventional endowment (16.5zj). coal consumption exceeds reserves in all baseline scenarios, but in stabilization scenarios a significant share of the reserve will be left underground.
How to estimated the independent effects of student and school predictors?
to our knowledge, no longitudinal studies of bullying in a large sample across multiple grades have estimated the independent effects of student and school predictors of bullying as well as their interaction effects
What does the studies of aggression and violence in school were identified?
in addition, although studies of aggression and violence in school increasingly have identified bullying as a primary outcome of interest, slippage persists in the precise definition and measurement of bullying as distinct from aggression (cook et al., 2010
What does the literature related to children's aggressive behavior describes?
for this reason, and given the similarity between bullying and proactive forms of aggression, literature related to children's aggressive behavior in understanding the development of bullying is included in the review to justify the incorporation of the student and school predictors of this behavior
to our knowledge, no longitudinal studies of bullying in a large sample across multiple grades have estimated the independent effects of student and school predictors of bullying as well as their interaction effects. therefore, a brief literature review of each construct of interest (school climate, approving normative beliefs about bullying, and self-esteem) is provided and a rationale for proposed interactions is posited. in addition, although studies of aggression and violence in school increasingly have identified bullying as a primary outcome of interest, slippage persists in the precise definition and measurement of bullying as distinct from aggression (cook et al., 2010). for this reason, and given the similarity between bullying and proactive forms of aggression, literature related to children's aggressive behavior in understanding the development of bullying is included in the review to justify the incorporation of the student and school predictors of this behavior.
What is the relationship between climate change, and the way buildings are constructed?
a fundamental challenge for those who are designing buildings and cities in a changing climate is that they must understand how the relationship among people, climate and buildings impacts not only on the health of humans but also on their comfort, the subject of the next chapter
What is one way in which urban design alleviates a harsh climate?
 provision of ' climate havens ' or refuges, i.e. cooled or heated communal spaces; for example, in the usa people often go to the malls to keep cool or warm during the day
consideration of urban design to ameliorate extreme temperatures through the use of building layout, planting and appropriate surface materials, including water. <s121>* provision of ' climate havens ' or refuges, i.e. cooled or heated communal spaces; for example, in the usa people often go to the malls to keep cool or warm during the day. a fundamental challenge for those who are designing buildings and cities in a changing climate is that they must understand how the relationship among people, climate and buildings impacts not only on the health of humans but also on their comfort, the subject of the next chapter.
What was the average range around this best guess?
the average range around this best guess was also 25 percent
What was the mean of respondents' best guess of the CPRS being effective in slowing down climate change without global co-operation?
the mean of respondents' best guess of the cprs being effective in slowing down climate change without global co-operation was 25 percent
What was the average best guess likelihood, in the second scenario?
the average best guess likelihood, in the second scenario, was 45 percent
the mean of respondents' best guess of the cprs being effective in slowing down climate change without global co-operation was 25 percent. the interpretation of this value according to the ipcc likelihood scale is 'unlikely'. the average range around this best guess was also 25 percent. this implies that respondents' belief of the success of the cprs without a global cooperation varied between 'less likely than not' and 'highly unlikely'. when respondents were 12 12 asked to indicate their perceptions of best guess of the likelihood of the cprs being effective with global co-operation, over two thirds (71%) of the respondents selected a higher probability along the scale, twelve percent respondents did not update their perceptions while sixteen percent, surprisingly, stated a lower probability3. the average best guess likelihood, in the second scenario, was 45 percent. according to the ipcc scale, this implies 'less likely than not'. the average range around this best guess was slightly lower (21%) than the first scenario (without global co-operation). this value implies that respondents' belief of the success of the cprs with a global co-operation varies between 'more likely than not' and 'unlikely'. the mean difference between respondents' best guesses of likelihood of the effectiveness of the cprs with and without a global co-operation is statistically significant at the one percent level (z=19, p<0.001). the stated average range around the best guess of the effectiveness of the cprs with global co-operation is also significantly (z= 4.2, p<0.001) lower than the stated range without global co-operation.
In 1896 which scientist suggested that human activity could warm the earth substantially & subsequently who confirmed this view?
in 1896, the swedish scientist svante arrhenius suggested that human activity could substantially warm the earth by adding co2 to the atmosphere. his predictions were subsequently independently confi rmed by thomas chamberlin
in 1896, the swedish scientist svante arrhenius suggested that human activity could substantially warm the earth by adding co2 to the atmosphere. his predictions were subsequently independently confi rmed by thomas chamberlin.2 at that time, however, such eff ect on human beings was thought to be dwarfed by other infl uences on global climate, such as sunspots and ocean circulation. however, these observations went unappreciated until recently. the establishment of the ipcc in 1988 was a pivotal move by the world community to address this issue, and has made a huge diff erence to the evolution of a shared understanding of climate change and to the stimulus for more and better research and modelling.
How many families were selected?
14
How many families in the cladistic classification of the Angiosperm Phylogeny Group (APG) 1998 are known to occur in Amazonian lowland forest?
132
stratification was used to select species for climate change impact assessment to ensure that the sample was as representative as possible of taxonomic and functional biodiversity. selection took place in four stages. first, a representative sample of families was identified. some 132 families in the cladistic classification of the angiosperm phylogeny group (apg) 1998 are known to occur in amazonian lowland forest. of these, 17 are endemic to the neotropics. using the apg cladogram, families were categorized as: (a) belonging to an informal group (clade) of orders in the cladistic classification; (b) belonging to an order outside these groups; or (c) lacking sufficient information to be assigned to any order. an ideal sample of families would include one from each group in category (a), one from each order in (b), and every family in (c). this rule was followed, with preference given to those families endemic to the neotropics and having the most genera. [proportionally more global biodiversity would be lost with the extinction of endemic families than of more cosmopolitan families. families with many genera account for a high proportion of amazonian flora and would be expected to hold a greater proportion of functional diversity if this was randomly distributed amongst genera]. more families were then added to each group to maximize representation of different life forms (see below). finally, to ensure comparability between the simulations for different species, the availability of distributional data for these selected families was evaluated, and families that had not been actively researched or the subject of monographs (organization for flora neotropica, 1999) were eliminated. the selection procedure was then repeated for the clade to which each eliminated family belonged, and a replacement family was identified if possible. this led to the selection of 14 families: arecaceae, balanophoraceae, bignoniaceae, caryocaraceae, chrysobalanaceae, dioscoreaceae, fabaceae, lauraceae, myrtaceae, proteaceae, rubiaceae, triuridaceae, sapotaceae and zingiberaceae.
What must be included to derive the AGWPs and AGTPs corresponding to pulse emissions?
f for the steady-state perturbations are calculated, and to derive the agwps and agtps corresponding to pulse emissions, additional information about the lifetimes of the short-lived ozone perturbation and the methane perturbation, must be included in the analysis
What is explained in Appendix 2?
this method by which this is done is explained in appendix 2
f for the steady-state perturbations are calculated, and to derive the agwps and agtps corresponding to pulse emissions, additional information about the lifetimes of the short-lived ozone perturbation and the methane perturbation, must be included in the analysis. this method by which this is done is explained in appendix 2 the impact of an emission pulse depends on time of the year (e.g. derwent et al., 2008 but for use in policymaking the impact of annual averaged emissions seems most relevant. for nox we therefore do not use results from studies that only treat a pulse emission for a given time of the year (e.g. derwent et al., 2008 and only include results that are basically showing the effect of one-year step emissions pulses stevenson et al. (2004 report the average over several months) or from continuous emission changes. to put the reported results into a common mathematical framework consistent with one-year emission pulses we assume temporal evolutions of ozone and methane as described below: for the short-lived ozone perturbation we assume
For the pilot project, what did the selection of resource values to be assessed include?
for the pilot project, selection of resource values to be assessed included flood-plain and in-channel infrastructure, water uses (diversions and improvements), and aquatic species
How can assessments can be simplified?
assess ments can be simplified if they concentrate on only the highest priority values. usually, lists of values can be prioritized to focus the analysis, and other values or issues can be evaluated during future iterations or other assessment efforts
Even though assessments need to be conducted over large areas, what smaller scale distinctions should be made?
assessments need to be conducted over large areas, typically an entire national forest, with distinctions made at the subwatershed scale (huc-6
establish the geographic area for assessment, decide who will participate, and identify water resource values and essential information that will drive the assessment. assessments need to be conducted over large areas, typically an entire national forest, with distinctions made at the subwatershed scale (huc-6). assess ments can be simplified if they concentrate on only the highest priority values. usually, lists of values can be prioritized to focus the analysis, and other values or issues can be evaluated during future iterations or other assessment efforts. for the pilot project, selection of resource values to be assessed included flood-plain and in-channel infrastructure, water uses (diversions and improvements), and aquatic species. the location and relative importance (within the analysis area) of the selected resources were characterized in this step.
What cycle will change as the global climate changes?
as the global climate changes, the hydrological cycle will undoubtedly change
What effect will sea surface temperatures increasing have?
increasing sea surface temperatures will increase evaporation from the sea and pump more water into the tropospheric water cycle
What explains the presence of so many unique amphibian species?
a high rh explains the presence of so many kinds of unique amphibian species
as the global climate changes, the hydrological cycle will undoubtedly change. increasing sea surface temperatures will increase evaporation from the sea and pump more water into the tropospheric water cycle. at first glance, this may seem to lead to increasing clouds, but detailed studies have indicated a tendency for a decrease in low-level cloudiness z that envelopes cloud forests see section 3.3 longz term observations pounds et al., 1999 and prelimiz nary modelling still et al., 1999; foster, 2001 at the monteverde cloud forest in costa rica suggest that the height of the cloudbank is already rising, resulting in less cloud immersion, and thus driving local extinctions through enhanced dryness. exactly how the cloud immersion impacts the forest is unknown, but certain effects are obvious-- z high relative humidity rh and reduced sunshine are two of the most important ones. the enhanced rh contributes to the large epiphyte mass, as the aerial plants capture water directly from the clouds or via enhanced condensation. in addition, a high rh explains the presence of so many kinds of unique amphibian species. however, the explanation of the stunted and twisted nature of the cloud forest trees nomenclature: notation cf cloud forest enso el nino southern oscillation
Name the extreme images of catastrophic climate change?
bad bad bad like after nuclear war no vegetation," "heat waves, it's gonna kill the world," "death of the planet
How green house emission is reduced?
alarmists held pro-egalitarian and anti-individualist and hierarchist worldviews, were politically liberal, strongly supported government policies to mitigate climate change (including raising taxes), and were significantly more likely to have taken personal action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
What is the final identification of this study?
finally, this study identified another interpretive community whose members confuse or conflate global climate change with the separate problem of stratospheric ozone depletion--a critical misconceptionalsoidentifiedbymentalmodelsresearchers
this study also identified a contrasting interpretive community with high-risk perceptions of climate change--alarmists. some members of this group provided extreme images of catastrophic climate change, such as: "bad bad bad like after nuclear war no vegetation," "heat waves, it's gonna kill the world," "death of the planet." alarmists held pro-egalitarian and anti-individualist and hierarchist worldviews, were politically liberal, strongly supported government policies to mitigate climate change (including raising taxes), and were significantly more likely to have taken personal action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. an independent means t -test found that this interpretive community was significantly different from all other respondents on every risk perception variable (8 variables: p 0.01; 5 variables: p 0.001) (see fig. 2). alarmists represent approximately 11% of the american public. it is also important to note, however, that all other respondents had climate change risk perception levels much closer to alarmists than naysayers (fig. 4). this demonstrates that most americans are predisposed to view climate change as a significant danger, albeit not as extreme as the alarmists, while climate change naysayers have substantially lower risk perceptions than the rest of american society. finally, this study identified another interpretive community whose members confuse or conflate global climate change with the separate problem of stratospheric ozone depletion--a critical misconceptionalsoidentifiedbymentalmodelsresearchers(e.g.,
What combination of events will trigger a climate tipping point?
the trigger of any future climate tipping point is likely to involve some combination of natural variability on top of an underlying forcing due to human activities
What type of variability is associated with changes in the climate system?
short-term variability in the climate system is characterized as a stochastic process
the trigger of any future climate tipping point is likely to involve some combination of natural variability on top of an underlying forcing due to human activities. this suggests a probabilistic approach to forecasting is most appropriate, based on a paradigm where short-term variability in the climate system is characterized as a stochastic process ('noise') interacting with longer-term deterministic dynamics37. for a given abrupt change, the balance of deterministic and stochastic (random) processes driving it will determine its predictability. this can be highlighted by the following two, idealized, limiting cases (fig. 1), although in reality, steady forcing and noise are both likely to play a role in tipping phenomena.
what are the micro-level analysis of adaptation?
this study was based on micro-level analysis of adaptation that focuses on tactical decisions farmers make in response to seasonal variations in climatic, economic, and other factors
what are the characteristics of household?
hese tactical decisions are influenced by a number of socioeconomic factors that include household characteristics, household resource endowments, access to information (seasonal and long-term climate changes and agricultural production) and availability of formal institutions (input and output markets) for smoothening consumption
what is farm-level decision?
farm-level decision making occurs over a very short time period, usually influenced by seasonal climatic variations, the local agricultural cycle, and other factors. adaptation is important for farmers to achieve their farming objectives such as food and livelihood security
this study was based on micro-level analysis of adaptation that focuses on tactical decisions farmers make in response to seasonal variations in climatic, economic, and other factors. these tactical decisions are influenced by a number of socioeconomic factors that include household characteristics, household resource endowments, access to information (seasonal and long-term climate changes and agricultural production) and availability of formal institutions (input and output markets) for smoothening consumption. farm-level decision making occurs over a very short time period, usually influenced by seasonal climatic variations, the local agricultural cycle, and other factors. adaptation is important for farmers to achieve their farming objectives such as food and livelihood security. descriptive statistics (means) were used to characterize farmer perceptions on changes in longterm temperature and precipitation changes. perception results indicate that farmers are aware that the region is getting warmer and drier with increased frequency of droughts and changes in the timing of rains. observed trends of temperature and precipitation support farmer perceptions. the implication is that farmers need to adjust their management practices to ensure that they make efficient use of the limited rainfall and water resources for food production and other needs. farmers identified lack of credit and information concerning climate change forecasting (both short-term variations and long-term climate change and information concerning adaptation options and other agricultural production activities); rationing of inputs and lack of seed resources as important constraints. addressing these issues can significantly help farmers tailor their management practices to warmer and drier conditions. important adaptation options being used by farmers include crop diversification, using different crop varieties, changing planting and harvesting dates, increased use of irrigation, increased use of water and soil conservation techniques, and diversifying from farm to non-farm activities. the adaptation options being used by farmers can be classified into two main modifications in the production systems (a) increased diversification and (b) escaping sensitive growth stages through crop management practices that ensure that critical crop growth stages do not coincide with very harsh climatic conditions in the season such as mid-season droughts. increased diversification through engaging in production activities that are drought tolerant and or resistant to temperature stresses as well as activities that make efficient use and take full advantage of the prevailing water and temperature conditions, among other factors, serves as an important form of insurance against rainfall variability. growing a number of different crops in the same plot or in different plots reduces the risk of complete crop failure as different crops are affected differently by climate events. it is important to note that these adaptation measures should not be taken as independent strategies but should be used in a complementary way. for instance use of irrigation technologies need to be accompanied by other crop management practices. supporting farmers in
whats the Dates show?
dates show year of first observations of centrostephanus rodgersii at sites on the tasmanian coast
what dashed line indicates?
dashed line indicates the lower temperature limit for the development of c
fig. 1. recent climate-driven range extension of the long-spined sea urchin to eastern tasmania. a sea surface temperature (sst) map of south eastern australia showing influence of the warm east australian current in eastern tasmania during austral winter; data are mean sst (pathfinder, 4  4 km pixels) for june-august 1993-2007. dates show year of first observations of centrostephanus rodgersii at sites on the tasmanian coast. b long-term winter warming trend of coastal waters in eastern tasmania 1950-2008; data are 4 year running means (see materials and methods for august, the month of major c. rodgersii spawning (15); dashed line indicates the lower temperature limit for the development of c. rodgersii larvae (15); inset shows 21-day-old c. rodgersii echinopluteus.
What will be necessary to project changes in biodiversity?
understanding these interactions will be necessary to more reliably project changes in biodiversity under different land use and climate scenarios and to manage habitats appropriately
Where are opportunities to reduce the negative impact of climate change?
there are also opportunities to reduce the negative impact of climate change on biodiversity through adaptation strategies (e.g., ref 192), and relatively simple actions such as increasing habitat quality and extent can simultaneously address multiple drivers
What does future research need to understand and quantify?
future research needs to understand and quantify the major mechanisms by which global change drivers interact, in order to minimize risks and increase opportunities for the conservation of biodiversity
understanding these interactions will be necessary to more reliably project changes in biodiversity under different land use and climate scenarios and to manage habitats appropriately. there are also opportunities to reduce the negative impact of climate change on biodiversity through adaptation strategies (e.g., ref 192), and relatively simple actions such as increasing habitat quality and extent can simultaneously address multiple drivers. however, land use decisions can also have negative impacts on the 'adaptive capacity' of populations.193land use is driven by socioeconomic and climatic factors, potentially with complex feedbacks; but if we cannot suitably address the negative impacts of land use change, then we close off our options for dealing with climate change.188with a growing recognition of the existence of interactions between global change drivers, conservation strategies and biodiversity projections that only address a single driver are inadequate. future research needs to understand and quantify the major mechanisms by which global change drivers interact, in order to minimize risks and increase opportunities for the conservation of biodiversity.
What is a concern of broad-scale analyses?
they tend to hide an enormous amount of variability concerning what may be complex responses to climate change
Why are they working with various partners for what might be seen as the next stage in these analyses
we are now working with various partners on what might be seen as the next stage in these analyses, where, having identified hotspots through broad-brush analysis, we are now zooming in to some of these, so that more detailed impact assessments can be carried out at the community or household level
What is there also a need for in addition to assessing likely impacts on different crops and livestock?
in addition to assessing likely impacts on different crops and livestock, there is also a need for expanded efforts to assess implications on plant and animal diseases, in terms of likely changes in distribution, severity and frequency of outbreak
broad-scale analyses such as these are useful for helping to prioritise the allocation of research resources, but they tend to hide an enormous amount of variability concerning what may be complex responses to climate change. there is considerable heterogeneity in households' access to resources, poverty levels, and ability to cope. we are now working with various partners on what might be seen as the next stage in these analyses, where, having identified hotspots through broad-brush analysis, we are now zooming in to some of these, so that more detailed impact assessments can be carried out at the community or household level. such work calls for different tools such as crop, livestock and household simulation models, so that the resource, economic and household well-being implications of changes in climate and climate variability can be appropriately assessed and the interactions between household enterprises (crops, livestock, off-farm income, etc) evaluated. in addition to assessing likely impacts on different crops and livestock, there is also a need for expanded efforts to assess implications on plant and animal diseases, in terms of likely changes in distribution, severity and frequency of outbreak.
What are the simplest example of an innovation that could foster adaptation?
while new crop seeds are the simplest example of an innovation that could foster adaptation, we also include in this category agronomic innovations, such as new methods of water harvesting or conservation agriculture
What innovations are important to be highlighted
among the obvious candidates are innovations that improve production under extreme heat and drought conditions
Where technologies that help improve cold tolerance could also be beneficial?
technologies that help improve cold tolerance could also be beneficial, as it would allow faster transition of crops into cooler locations
the role of new technologies in adaptation. in agriculture, of new technologies has been the norm ever since the invention of the haber-bosch process for producing synthetic fertilizer in the early 20th century. indeed, technology improvements have come to be taken for granted, and models of future agricultural production typically account for new technology by including some exogenous rate of growth in yields. of interest here, however, are those particular technologies that would reduce the sensitivity of agriculture to weather, thereby helping to adapt to climate change. while new crop seeds are the simplest example of an innovation that could foster adaptation, we also include in this category agronomic innovations, such as new methods of water harvesting or conservation agriculture. the nature of climate change impacts on agriculture (section ii) suggests the need for the nature of climate change impacts on agriculture (section ii) suggests the need for various innovations. among the obvious candidates are innovations that improve production under extreme heat and drought conditions. however, technologies that help improve cold tolerance could also be beneficial, as it would allow faster transition of crops into cooler locations. technologies that facilitate earlier sowing, such as those witnessed in the united states over the past few decades (kucharik 2006), could also help to avoid harmful weather. seeds with improved pest and disease resistance could become more valuable if climate change exacerbates biotic stresses. and cropping systems that are more capable of surviving inundations, such as the new submergent tolerant rice varieties, will have added value as frequency of heavy rainfall increases. it is extremely difficult to predict the potential rate of improvement incurred from any of it is extremely difficult to predict the potential rate of improvement incurred from any of these innovations. some, for instance, argue that achieving drought tolerance without incurring a significant (and potentially unacceptable, from farmers' perspective) yield penalty in good years is extremely unlikely (sinclair, purcell, and sneller 2004). others are more optimistic, but there
What does figure 5 shows?
impacts of climate change and effects of mitigation on numbers of people at risk of hunger, as computed by the bls model over time, for selected decades into the future
From what source the data was taken?
data are aggregated globally, and represent contributions mainly from subsaharan africa, asia, and latin america
What does the negative data mean?
negative values indicate benefits of mitigation (i.e., a decrease in the numbers at risk of hunger with respect to the unmitigated case) and vice-versa
fig. 5. impacts of climate change and effects of mitigation on numbers of people at risk of hunger, as computed by the bls model over time, for selected decades into the future. data are aggregated globally, and represent contributions mainly from subsaharan africa, asia, and latin america. (a) impacts of climate change, defined as a2r minus a2r-reference values; (b) effects of mitigation, defined as a2r-mit minus a2r values. negative values indicate benefits of mitigation (i.e., a decrease in the numbers at risk of hunger with respect to the unmitigated case) and vice-versa. 1048 f.n. tubiello, g. fischer technological forecasting social change 74 (2007) 1030 - 1056
How many doubt that climate change is occuring?
few now doubt that climate change is occurring, and that it is human activity that is a prime cause
Is the science of greenhouse effect well known?
the science of the greenhouse effect has been well known for a century, but the complexity of the climate makes any precise prediction of the relationship between specific concentrations of particular greenhouse gases and changes in global temperatures extremely difficult
Is an ice free North Pole in the summer far away in the future?
the prospect of an ice-free north pole in summer is not far away, and the arctic ocean is opening up for shipping through the northeast and northwest passages
few now doubt that climate change is occurring, and that it is human activity that is a prime cause. the science of the greenhouse effect has been well known for a century, but the complexity of the climate makes any precise prediction of the relationship between specific concentrations of particular greenhouse gases and changes in global temperatures extremely difficult. we are condemned to live with the uncertainty. but that uncertainty is not unbounded, and we have already had significant temperature changes and, in the arctic, fairly rapid climate change. the prospect of an ice-free north pole in summer is not far away, and the arctic ocean is opening up for shipping through the northeast and northwest passages. while the science of the climate and the empirical evidence mount up, the policy responses have so far had little or no impact on the build-up of emissions. a concentration of 400
Which honey bee is most economically valuable pollinator of agricultural crops worldwide?
the european honey bee, apis mellifera is the most economically valuable pollinator of agricultural crops worldwide
Which is the crucial in maintaining biodiversity by pollinating numerous plant species whose fertilisation requires an obligatory pollinator?
bees are also crucial in maintaining biodiversity by pollinating numerous plant species whose fertilisation requires an obligatory pollinator
Which species has shown great adaptive potential?
apis mellifera is a species that has shown great adaptive potential, as it is found almost everywhere in the world and in highly diverse climates
summary the european honey bee, apis mellifera is the most economically valuable pollinator of agricultural crops worldwide. bees are also crucial in maintaining biodiversity by pollinating numerous plant species whose fertilisation requires an obligatory pollinator. apis mellifera is a species that has shown great adaptive potential, as it is found almost everywhere in the world and in highly diverse climates. in a context of climate change, the variability of the honey bee's lifehistory traits as regards temperature and the environment shows that the species possesses such plasticity and genetic variability that this could give rise to the selection of development cycles suited to new environmental conditions. although we do not know the precise impact of potential environmental changes on honey bees as a result of climate change, there is a large body of data at our disposal indicating that environmental changes have a direct influence on honey bee development. in this article, the authors examine the potential impact of climate change on honey bee behaviour, physiology and distribution, as well as on the evolution of the honey bee's interaction with diseases. conservation measures will be needed to prevent the loss of this rich genetic diversity of honey bees and to preserve ecotypes that are so valuable for world biodiversity. key words adaptation - apis - biodiversity - conservation - disease - ecotype - honey bee - genetic diversity.
What was investigated in this study?
this paper investigates farmers' perceptions of climate change and variability in southwest uganda and compares them with daily rainfall and temperature measurements from the 1960s to the present, including trends in daily rainfall and temperature, seasonality, changing probability of risk and intensity of rainfall events
How was qualitative data collected from farmers?
with qualitative data collected through a semi-structured questionnaire
What were the farmers' perceptions regarding temperature and seasonality?
in particular, farmers felt that temperature had increased and seasonality and variability had changed, with the first rainy season between march and may becoming more variable
summary this paper investigates farmers' perceptions of climate change and variability in southwest uganda and compares them with daily rainfall and temperature measurements from the 1960s to the present, including trends in daily rainfall and temperature, seasonality, changing probability of risk and intensity of rainfall events. statistical analyses and modelling of rainfall and temperature were performed and contrasted with qualitative data collected through a semi-structured questionnaire. the fieldwork showed that farmers perceived regional climate to have changed in the past 20 years. in particular, farmers felt that temperature had increased and seasonality and variability had changed, with the first rainy season between march and may becoming more variable. farmers reported detailed accounts of climate characteristics during specific years, with recent droughts in the late 1990s and late 2000s confirming local perceptions that there has been a shift in climate towards more variable conditions that are less favourable to production. there is a clear signal that temperature has been increasing in the climate data and, to a lesser extent, evidence that the reliability of rains in the first season has decreased slightly. however, rainfall measurements do not show a downward trend in rainfall amount, a significant shift in the intensity of rainfall events or in the start and end of the rainy seasons. we explore why there are some differences between farmers' perceptions and the climate data due to different associations of risk between ideal rainfall by farmers, including the amount and distribution needed for production, meteorological definitions of normal rainfall or the long-term statistical mean and its variation, and the impact of higher temperatures. the paper reflects on the methodological approach and considers the implications for communicating information about risk to users in order to support agricultural innovation.
What the first part of the paper examines?
examines some of the differential impacts of climate change on men and women, as well as highlighting implications for gender in/equality
Whose the study from ActionAid and the Institute of Development Studies (IDS) centres around?
centres around poor, rural women's own experiences of and responses to climate change
Why there is a need to include women in developing and implementing mitigation strategies?
both to ensure their full participation in these processes and to ensure that such strategies are effective in addressing the 'bigger picture' of climate change and its human impacts
this paper is divided into three parts. the first part examines some of the differential impacts of climate change on men and women, as well as highlighting implications for gender in/equality. the second part takes a gendered approach to climate change adaptation, drawing particularly on a recent study from actionaid and the institute of development studies (ids) which centres around poor, rural women's own experiences of and responses to climate change. the final section provides insights into the complexities of climate change mitigation. it emphasises the need to include women in developing and implementing mitigation strategies, both to ensure their full participation in these processes and to ensure that such strategies are effective in addressing the 'bigger picture' of climate change and its human impacts.
Explain Corporate Political Strategy ?
corporate political strategy 805 regulatory pressures in pluralist competition with other social actors (mitnick, 1993; vogel, 1996), while the cps literature neglects broader political and economic structures within which these contests are embedded
What is meant by Power structure and Clite theories?
power structure and clite theories provide more theoretically grounded accounts of business-society relations, emphasizing the institutional mechanisms by which a relatively cohesive clite dominates politics (domhoff, 1990; mills, 1967; mizruchi, 1992; useem, 1984
What does Domhoff's formulation says?
in domhoff's formulation, the power clite has three allied components: an upper class defined by a network of institutions and the concentrated ownership of wealth; a corporate community of directors, managers, and business professionals with its own set of institutional networks; and a policy formation network of nonprofit organizations such as foundations and think tanks that develop and disseminate political strategies and policies
corporate political strategy 805 regulatory pressures in pluralist competition with other social actors (mitnick, 1993; vogel, 1996), while the cps literature neglects broader political and economic structures within which these contests are embedded. power structure and clite theories provide more theoretically grounded accounts of business-society relations, emphasizing the institutional mechanisms by which a relatively cohesive clite dominates politics (domhoff, 1990; mills, 1967; mizruchi, 1992; useem, 1984). in domhoff's formulation, the power clite has three allied components: an upper class defined by a network of institutions and the concentrated ownership of wealth; a corporate community of directors, managers, and business professionals with its own set of institutional networks; and a policy formation network of nonprofit organizations such as foundations and think tanks that develop and disseminate political strategies and policies. while some writers in this tradition have examined the contingency of business cohesion (akard, 1992; ferguson, 1995), this perspective does not pay sufficient attention to rivalry among factions of the dominant class, the dynamics of contestation and accommodation with other social groups, or ideological dimensions of power. to explain the dynamics of cps in response to the climate change issue, we turn to the work of antonio gramsci, whose analysis of the relations among capital, social forces, and the state in post-world war
How F. Bouraoui, L. Galbiati and G. Bidoglio 206 phosphorus losses was statistically significant?
f. bouraoui, l. galbiati and g. bidoglio 206 phosphorus losses was statistically significant for echam2050 for all months except for may, and for total nitrogen only december and august showed a significant difference
Explain about Concerning HadCM2050?
concerning hadcm2050, only the months of january, may and august showed significant difference for total nitrogen, and all the months but march, april and august for total phosphorus
What is the root mean square differences for water flow?
the root mean square differences for water flow, total phosphorus and nitrogen losses were higher than the root mean square errors, indicating that the changes induced by the different scenarios were measurable (haratty and stefan, 1998
f. bouraoui, l. galbiati and g. bidoglio 206 phosphorus losses was statistically significant for echam2050 for all months except for may, and for total nitrogen only december and august showed a significant difference. concerning hadcm2050, only the months of january, may and august showed significant difference for total nitrogen, and all the months but march, april and august for total phosphorus. for all the other months, the seasonal variability of the baseline simulation hid the impact of the climate change. on an annual basis, the changes introduced by both climate changes are significant for stream-flow, actual evapotranspiration, total nitrogen and phosphorus losses. this is confirmed for all scenarios (table 3). the nitrogen loss changes, as predicted by all climate scenarios, ranged from 6 to 27%, and from 5 to 34% for phosphorus. it is important to note that all scenarios do not always agree on a seasonal basis on the magnitude and the direction of change for nutrient losses, but they all agree in predicting the increase in annual nutrient losses (table 3). then, as discussed by hanratty and stefan (1998), a precision analysis compared the root mean square error between the predicted and measured water quantity and nutrient loads with the root mean square difference between the baseline and the simulated climate change scenarios. the root mean square differences for water flow, total phosphorus and nitrogen losses were higher than the root mean square errors, indicating that the changes induced by the different scenarios were measurable (haratty and stefan, 1998). similar results were obtained for the other four
Where are the higher or lower incidences located?
higher or lower incidences of valley fever coccioidomycosis a disease endemic to parts of desert areas in arizona, california and northern mexico
What does the fit between science and societal needs represent for this?
however, the fit between science and societal needs was incomplete due to the fact that, while sufficient knowledge was available to develop a successful model experiment, insufficient scientific understanding existed of crucial factors, such as the dynamics of the fungus that is the source of the disease. in terms of resources, the climate-valley fever work relied on outside leveraging from the university of arizona's valley fever center of excellence. although not as iterative as other climas initiatives, this project is a good example of how flexibility enables researchers to take advantage of opportunities to generate relevant science despite the fact that the level of fit between stakeholders' needs and the science produced has yet to develop fully. in some cases, research is essential to providing scientific foundations for implementing iterative models. in the case of climas, need was identified early in the
How was the range of stake holders?
the range of stakeholder interactions was relatively narrow in that the primary users were physicians and public health specialists; a second user community included the broader scientific community interested in valley fever. the climas portion of the project, which aimed to determine the links between climatic conditions and spatiotemporal occurrence patterns of the disease, led to development of an experimental model to predict heightened likelihood of an outbreak following specified sequences of climatic conditions (see kolivras et al., 2001 
in several instances, for a variety of reasons, iterativity has been less pronounced within climas. for example, an investigation of the role of climate in producing higher or lower incidences of valley fever coccioidomycosis a disease endemic to parts of desert areas in arizona, california and northern mexico) reflected low levels of interdisciplinarity within climas and relatively low fit. in terms of interdisciplinarity, the initiative did not require involvement of other project investigators, who lacked expertise in this field. rather, it emerged from an overlap between the interests of a climas co-investigator, through one of his graduate students, and a separate--and highly interdisciplinary--initiative being run by the ua valley fever center of excellence to improve knowledge about and treatment of this disease. the range of stakeholder interactions was relatively narrow in that the primary users were physicians and public health specialists; a second user community included the broader scientific community interested in valley fever. the climas portion of the project, which aimed to determine the links between climatic conditions and spatiotemporal occurrence patterns of the disease, led to development of an experimental model to predict heightened likelihood of an outbreak following specified sequences of climatic conditions (see kolivras et al., 2001 ). however, the fit between science and societal needs was incomplete due to the fact that, while sufficient knowledge was available to develop a successful model experiment, insufficient scientific understanding existed of crucial factors, such as the dynamics of the fungus that is the source of the disease. in terms of resources, the climate-valley fever work relied on outside leveraging from the university of arizona's valley fever center of excellence. although not as iterative as other climas initiatives, this project is a good example of how flexibility enables researchers to take advantage of opportunities to generate relevant science despite the fact that the level of fit between stakeholders' needs and the science produced has yet to develop fully. in some cases, research is essential to providing scientific foundations for implementing iterative models. in the case of climas, need was identified early in the
What can calculation of future isoprene emissions without considering vegetation changes lead to?
calculation of future isoprene emissions without considering vegetation changes could lead to an overestimation of 39 tg yr 1
What do the results indicate the importance of?
however, our results do indicate the importance of changes in vegetation coverage when calculating future levels of ozone
Above what ozone level is significant lung tissue damage evident?
the ozone levels in july over the eastern usa and china are 60-80 ppbv, which exceeds the world health organisation (who) recommendation of 60 ppbv as an upper limit. above this level significant damage to lung tissue and exacerbation of asthma is evident world health organisation 1994
calculation of future isoprene emissions without considering vegetation changes could lead to an overestimation of 39 tg yr 1. consequently, predicted ozone levels at some continental locations are 5-30 ppbv larger. it must be stressed that these results were obtained by using only one future emission scenario. combinations of different emission scenarios and vegetation models will doubtless produce different isoprene emissions and hence ozone levels. the isoprene emission factors for each vegetation type are highly uncertain, and the use of different factors would clearly change the results. it has also been assumed that these factors remain constant, but some evidence shows that they could change rosenstiel et al. 2003]. however, our results do indicate the importance of changes in vegetation coverage when calculating future levels of ozone. the increase in ozone levels of 5-30 ppbv in the present results when vegetation changes are ignored is significant. the ozone levels in july over the eastern usa and china are 60-80 ppbv, which exceeds the world health organisation (who) recommendation of 60 ppbv as an upper limit. above this level significant damage to lung tissue and exacerbation of asthma is evident world health organisation 1994]. if the vegetation changes are included, the ozone levels in the same areas are significantly lower, and a much smaller area exceeds the who limit. acknowledgments. we would like to thank the uk department for environment, food and rural affairs for support through contracts epg 1/3/164 (air and environmental quality division) and pecd 7/12/37 (global atmosphere division).
What are some risks associated with an attempt to reduce consumer demand for meat and dairy products?
concerns include the following. intrusion: governments and non-governmental organizations (ngos) may be concerned about public intolerance of any attempt to interfere in lifestyle decisions, inviting accusations of 'nanny statism' and preaching, and risking alienating voters or supporters.63 these concerns may be greatest in developed, market-based economies where notions of free choice and individual rights predominate. cultural significance: promoting dietary change would necessarily challenge the cultural significance of meat in many societies around the world, and its aspirational status in many developing countries. private-sector resistance: attempts to reduce meat and dairy consumption would be likely to mobilize resistance from powerful interest groups, including the livestock sector and feed-crop farmers, in much the same way as policies to promote clean energy have encountered resistance from some in the fossil fuel sector
Why may governments be deterred from enacting policy interventions regarding climate change?
governments may be deterred by a lack of clear evidence as to the efficacy of different interventions to effect dietary changes, ranging from education and information campaigns to taxation and regulation
campaigns by major environmental groups to raise awareness of meat and dairy's climate footprint or encourage dietary change are scarce and have been relatively muted.62 in contrast, many global groups have delivered high-profile and effective campaigns on energy, transport and agricultural products such as palm oil and biofuels. in fact, the received wisdom among governments and campaign groups appears to be that trying to reduce consumer demand for meat and dairy products is at best too complex, and at worst risks backlash. concerns include the following. intrusion: governments and non-governmental organizations (ngos) may be concerned about public intolerance of any attempt to interfere in lifestyle decisions, inviting accusations of 'nanny statism' and preaching, and risking alienating voters or supporters.63 these concerns may be greatest in developed, market-based economies where notions of free choice and individual rights predominate. cultural significance: promoting dietary change would necessarily challenge the cultural significance of meat in many societies around the world, and its aspirational status in many developing countries. private-sector resistance: attempts to reduce meat and dairy consumption would be likely to mobilize resistance from powerful interest groups, including the livestock sector and feed-crop farmers, in much the same way as policies to promote clean energy have encountered resistance from some in the fossil fuel sector. public ambivalence regarding climate change: surveys often demonstrate relatively high levels of public awareness and concern about climate change, yet public engagement remains comparatively low. a lack of belief that individual action will make a difference can translate to low levels of empowerment and minimal changes to individual behaviour. as a result, mitigation strategies focused on individual behaviour change have not been prioritized. uncertainty regarding the efficacy or acceptability of policy interventions: governments may be deterred by a lack of clear evidence as to the efficacy of different interventions to effect dietary changes, ranging from education and information campaigns to taxation and regulation. in particular, a lack of evidence allows opponents of interventions to play up the possibility of unintended consequences and thereby delay action.64
What differed more between models, especially for 2050?
projected changes in precipitation
What areas remain of great uncertainty in global climate modeling?
changes in precipitation frequency and intensity
What provided insight into the extent to which uncertainty associated with climate modeling affected our results?
the use of different precipitation scenarios
we downscaled the predictions of each climate model to 11 locations in and surrounding the snohomish basin. the two models exhibited similar increases in annual mean air temperature of 0.7 and 1.0degc for 2025 and 1.3 and 1.5degc for 2050 (table 1). projected changes in precipitation differed more between models, especially for 2050. the models also differed somewhat in the timing of temperature and precipitation changes supporting information (si) figs. 6-9 ]. because changes in precipitation frequency and intensity remain areas of great uncertainty in global climate modeling (10), the use of different precipitation scenarios provides insight into the extent to which uncertainty associated with climate modeling affected our results.
how should the amount of oxygen be used for aerobic stabilization?
the amount of oxygen to be supplied by the aerators for the aerobic stabilisation of the organic matter should usually be equal to the total ultimate influent bod
In typical domestic sewage, BODu is reached at the end of which period?
in typical domestic sewage, bodu is reached at the end of a long period, in the order of 20 days
the amount of oxygen to be supplied by the aerators for the aerobic stabilisation of the organic matter should usually be equal to the total ultimate influent bod. the ultimate bod (bodu) corresponds to the total oxygen demand exerted for the complete stabilisation of the organic matter (see chapter 3). in typical domestic sewage, bodu is reached at the end of a long period, in the order of 20 days. bodu is therefore higher than the bod5, since the latter is exerted only until the fifth day. the ratio bodu/bod5 is frequently adopted in the range of 1.2 and 1.5. the considerations made in section 15.4a are also valid here. thus, the oxygen demand can be admitted, for design purposes as being due to all the influent bod, without any reduction related to the anaerobic conversion in the bottom. in the computation of the oxygen requirements, the following items can be discounted
What is THC?
the thc is a global system of water flows through the earth's oceans, which play an important role in global temperature distribution
What can be said of the coming century in regards the Antarctic ice sheet?
the antarctic ice sheet as a whole is likely to grow rather than to melt (because of increases in snowfall
What could be a serious consequence according to some models?
some models suggest that after 2100 the thc could shut down completely and possibly irreversibly, which would have major consequences for temperatures across europe, for example
the thc is a global system of water flows through the earth's oceans, which play an important role in global temperature distribution. it is driven by changes in the temperature and salinity (saltiness) of the water. in polar regions, global warming increases sea surface temperatures. at the same time, increased precipitation and the melting of glaciers in those regions also reduce the water's salinity. both of these processes are expected to weaken the thermohaline circulation. some models suggest that after 2100 the thc could shut down completely and possibly irreversibly, which would have major consequences for temperatures across europe, for example. concerns have also been raised about the potential disintegration of the west antarctic ice sheet, with potentially severe ramifications for global sea-level rise. during the coming century, this appears unlikely, and the antarctic ice sheet as a whole is likely to grow rather than to melt (because of increases in snowfall). over the next millennium however, melting of the west antarctic ice sheet could contribute about three metres to global sea-level rise. overall, the general scientific consensus is that while the risk of abrupt and catastrophic changes in the climate system is rising, such large changes are still highly unlikely to occur in the coming century. with respect to disaster risk reduction, the possibility of such events can generally be neglected. however, while currently small, the probability of abrupt climate change will increase along with the increasing rate, magnitude and duration of global warming. in that sense, the risk of such abrupt and catastrophic changes is yet another argument to take the risk of global climate change very seriously, particularly from the perspective of the 'precautionary principle' set out in the unfccc.
What is the meaning of the term "toxic environment"?
when we use the term "toxic environment," we are referring to several layers of the world around us that interact with key elements of our biology. human biology appears completely at odds with our current need to decrease food intake. the following findings suggest that the human race evolved in order to survive famine, not to stay thin when there is too much food. humans are innately predisposed to prefer sweet foods, and infants quickly learn to prefer the flavor of high fat and high salt foods
In what situation do humans eat more?
17 humans will eat more when there are a variety of flavors available (when we eat large amounts of one flavor we experience what barbara rolls calls "sensory specific satiety
Why has American spending on fast food increased 18-fold since 1970?
it is no wonder american spending on fast food has increased eighteen-fold since 1970.20 a variety of good tasting snacks and meals are now highly visible and accessible for most americans, and there is also evidence that since the 1970's, portion sizes have gotten larger, and far exceed federal guidelines.21 these foods are also extremely convenient compared with home made meals, fast food and packaged foods are easier to obtain and ready to eat immediately, as they require little preparation
when we use the term "toxic environment," we are referring to several layers of the world around us that interact with key elements of our biology. human biology appears completely at odds with our current need to decrease food intake. the following findings suggest that the human race evolved in order to survive famine, not to stay thin when there is too much food. humans are innately predisposed to prefer sweet foods, and infants quickly learn to prefer the flavor of high fat and high salt foods.17 humans will eat more when there are a variety of flavors available (when we eat large amounts of one flavor we experience what barbara rolls calls "sensory specific satiety").18 children and adults will eat more when larger portions are served. brian wansink has done a series of studies that document that people will eat more of a food (e.g., candy) when they can see it clearly (e.g., in a clear versus opaque jar) and when it is close to them (e.g., on their desk versus a few feet away).19 taken together, the key drivers of human over-consumption are flavor, variety, large portions, visibility, and proximity. these factors interact with the current environment in several ways. driving down the highway, we see dozens of drive through windows at fast food restaurants, billboards with advertisements for inexpensive snacks, and soft drinks at drugstores, and when we stop for gas, shelf after shelf of high-fat and high-sugar snacks at gas station mini marts. it is no wonder american spending on fast food has increased eighteen-fold since 1970.20 a variety of good tasting snacks and meals are now highly visible and accessible for most americans, and there is also evidence that since the 1970's, portion sizes have gotten larger, and far exceed federal guidelines.21 these foods are also extremely convenient compared with home made meals, fast food and packaged foods are easier to obtain and ready to eat immediately, as they require little preparation.
What was the regions mean precipitation?
the 30-year normals in the region for mean precipitation are 89.8 mm for january and 114.2 mm for june (environment canada 2004
the study was carried out at a poor fen fragment located in the st. charles-de-bellechasse peatland (46  40 c/ n, 71  10 c/ w) near quebec, canada. the 30year normals in the region for mean daily temperature are 16.5  c for june and 12.8  c for january. the 30-year normals in the region for mean precipitation are 89.8 mm for january and 114.2 mm for june (environment canada 2004). dominant sedges at the site are carex oligosperma carex limosa and rhyncospora alba dominant mosses at the site are sphagnum papillosum sphagnum magellanicum sphagnum cuspidatum and polytrichum strictum the peat is underlain by clay and the depth to this mineral soil varies between 1.0 and 1.5 m throughout the site.
What can generate nontrivial spatial patterns of synchronization?
even this simple network topology can generate nontrivial spatial patterns of synchronization
What was employed to retrieve the network topology from the dynamics on the vertices alone?
the pearson correlation coefficient and the mutual information were successfully employed to retrieve the network topology from the dynamics on the vertices alone
Which theory in a discretized model of the climate system can clarify the physical rational behind the method of climate network construction?
to clarify the physical rational behind our method of climate network construction, we discuss it within the framework of synchronization from dynamical systems theory in a discretized model of the climate system
to clarify the physical rational behind our method of climate network construction, we discuss it within the framework of synchronization from dynamical systems theory in a discretized model of the climate system, dynamical correlations can be envisioned as arising by (partial) synchronization of nonlinear oscillators on the grid that physically form a locally connected network. even this simple network topology can generate nontrivial spatial patterns of synchronization [5,24,25]. the same is true for the synchronization of modes of variability in spatially continuous systems as the underlying fields of fluidand thermodynamics e.g. sat. many measures of synchronization have been proposed and used to infer coupling strength and direction between connected nonlinear oscillators [23,27]. the pearson correlation coefficient and the mutual information were successfully employed to retrieve the network topology from the dynamics on the vertices alone.
Who said that we live in a word of uncertainty rather than risk?
in the words of knight (1921), we are in a world of " uncertainty " (unknown probabilities) rather than " risk " (known probabilities
Is the issue of climate change a very clear an concise matter?
the issue of climate change is beset with uncertainties, many of which are only partially captured by our existing analytical tools
On which maters where the Heal and Kristrom (2002) and Pindyck (2007) surveys conducted?
uncertainty in environmental economics, and climate change
the issue of climate change is beset with uncertainties, many of which are only partially captured by our existing analytical tools. this " reflections " explores these uncertainties, some of which are rooted in the underlying science while others stem from an imperfect understanding of how the socioeconomic system will evolve and cope with climatic shifts. although robust general conclusions about the nature and impacts of climate change can be drawn from the existing scientific and economic literatures, in many cases our knowledge of the climate problem is ambiguous and our uncertainty is deep. in the words of knight (1921), we are in a world of " uncertainty " (unknown probabilities) rather than " risk " (known probabilities). how then should we make policy decisions in such an informational environment? there have been several surveys of uncertainty in environmental economics, and climate change in particular. these include heal and kristrom (2002) and pindyck (2007), as well as a 2011 symposium in this journal (nordhaus 2011; pindyck 2011; weitzman 2011) that examined some of the questions raised by fat-tailed probabilities of climate catastrophes.1these reviews focus on issues that have become the bread and butter of economic approaches to uncertainty: irreversibility, discounting, and the consequences of the standard expected utility approach to representing uncertainty. this article takes a different approach, arguing that the expected utility framework for decision making under uncertainty may be of limited use for analyzing the climate problem (see also kunreuther et al. 2013). we review the decision theory literature, explore alternative decision frameworks that may be more appropriate, and investigate how they can be applied to the
Who are the most victims of domestic and sexual violence after a disaster?
there is also evidence that women and girls are more likely to become victims of domestic and sexual violence after a disaster
What causes the men's to involve in violence following a disaster?
the increase in violence is often partly attributed to stress caused by men's loss of control in the period following a disaster, compounded by longer term unemployment or threatened livelihoods. adolescent girls report especially high levels of sexual harassment and abuse in the aftermath of disasters
What solutions should be made inorder to reduce violence on women after a disaster?
helpful responses, especially for older girls and women, may involve working with girls on ways to protect them from these potential abuses (bartlett 2008). this could involve lighting the way to the toilets, or finding people who are willing to monitor the route or accompany children, adolescent girls and women. it can also mean finding ways to ensure their privacy while they are bathing or dressing (ibid
research shows that gender inequalities can also be exacerbated in the aftermath of disasters. the household workload may increase substantially, forcing many girls to drop out of school to help with chores there is also evidence that women and girls are more likely to become victims of domestic and sexual violence after a disaster, particularly when families have been displaced and are living in overcrowded emergency or transitional housing where they lack privacy. the increase in violence is often partly attributed to stress caused by men's loss of control in the period following a disaster, compounded by longer term unemployment or threatened livelihoods. adolescent girls report especially high levels of sexual harassment and abuse in the aftermath of disasters and complain of the l ack of privacy they encounter in emergency shelters (bartlett 2008). in sri lanka after the tsunami, according to local field workers on the ground, these conditions were a key contributing factor in the harassment and abuses experienced: "there were repeated references to the difficulties associated with many families living together in one open space, with no privacy for dressing or bathing - or even for families crowded together in a tent. many were reluctant to acknowledge the extent of the problems, and said that given the situation, people had managed well. but staff from both save [the children] and partner organisations, along with some of the more vocal women, made it clear that the situation resulted in many abuses " (save the children sweden, in bartlett 2008, 36). helpful responses, especially for older girls and women, may involve working with girls on ways to protect them from these potential abuses (bartlett 2008). this could involve lighting the way to the toilets, or finding people who are willing to monitor the route or accompany children, adolescent girls and women. it can also mean finding ways to ensure their privacy while they are bathing or dressing (ibid).
what are the needs of urgency due to climate change?
climate change requires urgency to deliver water, sanitation, and drainage to the world's poor nations, which need fair fi nancial and regulatory mechanisms, allowing for delivery of aff ordable services whilst providing resources for construction, maintenance, and operation of water and sanitation system
what is essential for populations vulnerable to climate change?
access to good primary health care is essential for populations vulnerable to climate change, also for water-borne diseases. people who are in good health are less likely to be vulnerable to water-borne diseases during extreme events
Uses of Good primary health care?
good primary health care will not only improve the resilience of local populations to water-related and sanitation-related diseases but also is the best early warning system for epidemics of water-borne diseases
climate change requires urgency to deliver water, sanitation, and drainage to the world's poor nations, which need fair fi nancial and regulatory mechanisms, allowing for delivery of aff ordable services whilst providing resources for construction, maintenance, and operation of water and sanitation systems. public, private, and community sectors are important in providing specifi c systems and delivery services locally. river basins and water catchment areas that cross political boundaries require policies and regulations to provide fair access to water resources and to avoid confl ict. access to good primary health care is essential for populations vulnerable to climate change, also for water-borne diseases. people who are in good health are less likely to be vulnerable to water-borne diseases during extreme events. good primary health care will not only improve the resilience of local populations to water-related and sanitation-related diseases but also is the best early warning system for epidemics of water-borne diseases.
What is a clear organizational feature of Twitter streams in protest ecologies?
another clear organizational feature of twitter streams in protest ecologies is their capacity to shift organizational functions over time
Through which time period was the #cop15 stream traced?
we traced the #cop15 stream from one week prior to the december 12 protest to one month after the protest
How many tweets containing links were there after the protest?
after the protest, the numbers of tweets containing links rose to an extraordinary 88% (fully 73 of our late stream sample of 83 tweets
another clear organizational feature of twitter streams in protest ecologies is their capacity to shift organizational functions over time. as herwig, kossats, and mark (2010) observe in the case of the 2009 #unibrennt student protests in vienna, these twittered network patterns appear to be "permanently beta," open to change in organizational character (cf. neff stark, 2003). in some cases, as in #the wave which served to rally participation for a particular event, the organizational pattern entails disappearing when the immediate function has been outlived. #cop 15, on the other hand, evolved through several different organizational phases in the time before and after the copenhagen demonstrations. different patterns of use emerge depending on where one cuts into the stream. however, one general difference emerges. the #cop15 stream, embedded in a more self-organizing and wider protest space, increasingly "seeks out" resources as the remaining users increasingly link to blogs and institutional sites. this resource seeking in a way stabilizes the organization of the stream. by contrast, the more centralized coalition facilitating a demonstration via #thewave may have provided support resources directly through member organizations communicating with their affiliated publics. we traced the #cop15 stream from one week prior to the december 12 protest to one month after the protest. shortly after december 12, it decreases to a small but steady stream. it continues, and, as noted, transitions. as table 2 shows, the level of linking rises in the #cop15 over time, dipping during the day of the protest while other uses momentarily rose. (note that multiple codes were permitted, so that a tweet could, for example, contain a solidarity message and a link, just a solidarity message, or just a link.) after the protest, the numbers of tweets containing links rose to an extraordinary 88% (fully 73 of our late stream sample of 83 tweets). the relative absence of central coordination in the copenhagen protests and hash may account for the higher levels of links embedded in the tweets; participants increasingly point each other to organizations and other resources afterwards as well. the main dynamic is that the proportion of tweets containing links soared as the stream diminished in volume. yet, given our observation about the tendency of this stream to seek resources in its links, it is also
Is the robust trend estimator less sensitive to outliers or extreme values and to deviations from the Gaussian distribution?
compared to the ordinary least squares prediction (ols), the robust trend estimator is less sensitive to outliers or extreme values and to deviations from the gaussian distribution
One extremely wet year at the end of the considered time period would have a significant influence on the predicted trend when using the OLS method?
for example, one extremely wet year at the end of the considered time period would have a significant influence on the predicted trend when using the ols method (bad leverage point), but it would not influence much the trend prediction using the mm estimator
Is the MM estimator generally less efficient compared to OLS prediction?
on the other hand, the mm-estimator is usually less efficient (i.e. provides the higher p-values) compared to the ols prediction
compared to the ordinary least squares prediction (ols), the robust trend estimator is less sensitive to outliers or extreme values and to deviations from the gaussian distribution. for example, one extremely wet year at the end of the considered time period would have a significant influence on the predicted trend when using the ols method (bad leverage point), but it would not influence much the trend prediction using the mm estimator. on the other hand, the mm-estimator is usually less efficient (i.e. provides the higher p-values) compared to the ols prediction. in the present study the standard setup of "lmrob" with an 250
Whose report contained statements about the possibility of the future weakening of the THC?
working group i
What information was not included in the 'Europe' chapter Working Group II report?
thc collapse and consequent changes in european climate
with this general background established, we now explore in more detail probably the most frequently cited example of abrupt, or rapid, climate change: the possible collapse of the thc. this example (see table 1) falls in the category of an anticipated abrupt climate change, defined as a sign reversal of climatic trend, in this case a switch from current and future climate warming over the north atlantic and northwest europe to a future cooling. + how has this possibility been represented in scenarios of future climate, what studies have explored the implications for society of such a possibility and how have these studies been conducted? although the working group i report of the ipcc third assessment contained statements about the possibility of future thc weakening and even collapse (cubasch meehl 2001), in the 'europe' chapter of the working group ii report assessing regional vulnerability, impacts and adaptation options (kundzewicz parry 2001), thc collapse and consequent changes in european climate were not included, nor obviously therefore was mention made of the impacts for society or environment of such an outcome. what relevant climate scenarios do we have to use as the basis for such an exploration? the standard ipcc (2001) and associated climate scenarios, based on a
What do researchers know regarding the interspecific variation in responses to climate change?
researchers are still largely at a loss in explaining interspecific variation in responses to climate change
More pronounced biological responses seem to correspond to what?
more pronounced biological responses do seem to correspond to exposure to greater magnitudes of climate warming (chen et al. 2011
What has been observed in the few cases examined of climate change impacts?
in the few cases examined, climate change impacts have been observed to phylogenetically cluster
researchers are still largely at a loss in explaining interspecific variation in responses to climate change. more pronounced biological responses do seem to correspond to exposure to greater magnitudes of climate warming (chen et al. 2011). attempts to explain the extent of range and phenological shifts have found that traits can account for a sometimes significant, but generally modest, proportion of the variation. in the few cases examined, climate change impacts have been observed to phylogenetically cluster. this highlights the need to control for phylogeny in searches for predictor traits. it also suggests that we may not have yet identified or appropriately quantified the most promising predictor traits given the modest success of trait-based analyses. perhaps more likely, our often linear expectations for environment-trait interactions may be inadequate ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
What will become the new climatology?
droughts will become the new climatology of the american southwest within a time frame of years to decades
How will climate change affect North America?
implications for the allocation of water resources and the course of regional development
How do models used for climate change help?
there is a broad consensus among climate models that this region will dry in the 21st century and that the transition to a more arid climate
how anthropogenic climate change will affect hydroclimate in the arid regions of southwestern north america has implications for the allocation of water resources and the course of regional development. here we show that there is a broad consensus among climate models that this region will dry in the 21st century and that the transition to a more arid climate should already be under way. if these models are correct, the levels of aridity of the recent multiyear drought or the dust bowl and the 1950s droughts will become the new climatology of the american southwest within a time frame of years to decades.
What are the simple metrics?
as simple metrics, we show global annual average values of the tropospheric ozone burden and the tropospheric ozone column (figure 2, top
How is the load calculated?
the burden is calculated as all ozone below 150 hpa, so includes some stratospheric ozone. since ozone in the stratosphere is constant in these simulations, changes reflect tropospheric ozone only
How is the ozone column calculated?
the tropospheric ozone column is calculated as all ozone from the surface up to either a limit of 150 ppbv ozone or 150 hpa height, whichever is reached first
it is impractical to present a complete view of the full set of four dimensional ozone fields that were created from the model. as simple metrics, we show global annual average values of the tropospheric ozone burden and the tropospheric ozone column (figure 2, top). the burden is calculated as all ozone below 150 hpa, so includes some stratospheric ozone. since ozone in the stratosphere is constant in these simulations, changes reflect tropospheric ozone only. the tropospheric ozone column is calculated as all ozone from the surface up to either a limit of 150 ppbv ozone or 150 hpa height, whichever is reached first. it is immediately clear that the two quantities show a very similar nonlinear rate of increase, though the trends in the burden are smoother. the impact of ozone on climate is more closely related to its radiative forcing, which is shown in figure 2 (bottom). this instantaneous forcing was calculated by the giss gcm's radiation code in response to the imposition of the model-derived ozone changes. the forcing shows a similar time dependence to the global column. it exhibits a strong spatial dependence as well, with the northern extratropical forcing increasing faster than the global or tropical averages, while the southern extratropical forcing increases more slowly. the total instantaneous forcing from 1880 to 1990 is 0.41 w m 2, while the adjusted forcing (allowing stratospheric temperature to respond to the forcing) over the same time period is 0.34 w m 2. this value is slightly larger than the 0.30 w m 2
What is eutrophication?
eutrophication is the excessive growth of aquatic plants, either planktonic, attached or rooted, at such levels as to cause interference with the desired uses of the water body
What is the main stimulating factor?
the main stimulating factor is an excessive level of nutrients in the water body, principally nitrogen and phosphorus
The level of eutrophication is usually associated with what?
the level of eutrophication is usually associated with the predominant land use and occupation in the catchment area
eutrophication is the excessive growth of aquatic plants, either planktonic, attached or rooted, at such levels as to cause interference with the desired uses of the water body (thomann and mueller, 1987). as discussed in this chapter, the main stimulating factor is an excessive level of nutrients in the water body, principally nitrogen and phosphorus. in this chapter, the water bodies under consideration are lakes and reservoirs. the process of eutrophication can also occur in rivers, though this is less frequent, owing to the environmental conditions being less favourable for the growth of algae and other plants, because of factors such as turbidity and high velocities. the following description illustrates the possible sequence of the eutrophication process in a water body, such as a lake or reservoir (see figure 3.16). the level of eutrophication is usually associated with the predominant land use and occupation in the catchment area. 134 to wastewater characteristics, treatment and disposal
What reflects the history of the average global surface temperature? Reflects the combined influences of climatic variations
reflects the combined influences of naturally occurring climate variations and anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols
Regarding the global average temperature, what did previous studies estimate? Attributed to the natural climate
previous studies have estimated the variance in global-mean temperature attributable to natural climate
the time history of observed twentieth-century global-mean surface temperature reflects the combined influences of naturally occurring climate variations and anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols. a technique used extensively in the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) assessment reports for distinguishing the signal of anthropogenic forcing from natural variability involves comparing (a) the observed spatial signature of climate change with (b) the signature of anthropogenic climate change inferred from climate models forced with prescribed increasing greenhouse gas concentrations [i.e., the ''optimal fingerprinting'' technique; hegerl et al. (2007) and references therein]. here, we infer the anthropogenic signal and other key aspects of twentiethcentury global-mean surface temperature variability by subtracting from the observed global-mean land and ocean temperature records the variance associated with known sources of natural climate variability. previous studies have estimated the variance in global-mean temperature attributable to natural climate
How does biological wastewater treatment occurs?
biological wastewater treatment, as the name suggests, occurs entirely by biological mechanisms
Describe the conversion of organic matter in water body?
in a water body, organic matter is converted into inert mineralised products by purely natural mechanisms, characterising the self-purification phenomenon
What are the main organisms involved in sewage treatment?
the main organisms involved in sewage treatment are bacteria, protozoa, fungi, algae and worms
biological wastewater treatment, as the name suggests, occurs entirely by biological mechanisms. these biological processes reproduce, in a certain way, the natural processes that take place in a water body after a wastewater discharge. in a water body, organic matter is converted into inert mineralised products by purely natural mechanisms, characterising the self-purification phenomenon (see chapter 3). in a wastewater treatment plant the same basic phenomena occur, but the difference is that there is the of technology. this technology has the objective of making the purification process develop under controlled conditions (operational control) and at higher rates (more compact solution). the understanding of the microbiology of sewage treatment is therefore essential for the optimisation of the design and operation of biological treatment systems. in the past, engineers designed the treatment works based essentially on empirical criteria. in the last few decades, the multidisciplinary character of sanitary and environmental engineering has been recognised, and the biologists have brought fundamental contributions for the understanding of the process. the rational knowledge has expanded, together with the decrease in the level of empiricism, allowing the systems to be designed and operated with a more solid base. the result has brought an increase in the efficiency and a reduction in the costs. the main organisms involved in sewage treatment are bacteria, protozoa, fungi, algae and worms. their characterisation is presented in section 7.2. this chapter
How many remote sensing-derived products were used?
six remote sensing-derived products
What was quantified by the remote sensing-derived products?
instantaneous fire intensity, immediate fire severity, and longer-term burn severity: fire radiative power (frp), spring albedo, tree cover, normalized burn ratio (nbr), normalized difference vegetation index (ndvi), and land surface temperature (lst) (supplementary table 1, 2
Which technique was used to derive confidence intervals?
confidence intervals for regional ratios were derived using a bootstrap technique
processing of satellite products we used six remote sensing-derived products to quantify instantaneous fire intensity, we used six remote sensing-derived products to quantify instantaneous fire intensity, immediate fire severity, and longer-term burn severity: fire radiative power (frp), spring albedo, tree cover, normalized burn ratio (nbr), normalized difference vegetation index (ndvi), and land surface temperature (lst) (supplementary table 1, 2). in all cases, values relative to north america are reported for eurasian regions. 95% confidence intervals for regional ratios were derived using a bootstrap technique. sample populations were generated from individual year cohorts. these were then resampled 1 000 times, using the same number of samples as the original number of years and allowing for repeats. ratios were calculated from each resample, and confidence intervals from the population of ratios. frp (fire intensity) was quantified using daily 1 km thermal anomalies/active fires of all frp (fire intensity) was quantified using daily 1 km thermal anomalies/active fires of all quality during 2003 2013 from the aqua (myd14a1, available from http://e4ftl01.cr.usgs.gov/mola/myd14a1.005/) and terra (mod14a1, available from
What information can physiological data help provide?
physiological data can provide a useful framework for understanding not only the effects of climate change on individual species ranges (jeschke strayer, 2008) but also for forecasting likely changes in species interactions, including those of hosts and parasites
Threshold temperatures, Q10 rates and other measures of temperature sensitivity as well as physiological responses such as thermal limits are a promising way forward in the development of what?
threshold temperatures, q10 rates and other measures of temperature sensitivity as well as physiological responses such as thermal limits are a promising way forward in the development of a mechanistic understanding of how climate change could indirectly shift disease dynamics
Understanding the potential responses of multiple parasite life stages and host physiological responses to temperature will lead to what?
understanding the potential responses of multiple parasite life stages and host physiological responses to temperature will allow more robust inferences about the influence of temperature on parasite dynamics and may identify which portions of their life cycles will be most susceptible to change
physiological data can provide a useful framework for understanding not only the effects of climate change on individual species ranges (jeschke strayer, 2008) but also for forecasting likely changes in species interactions, including those of hosts and parasites. while the direct influences of climate change on the geographical range and growth rates of pathogens are the subject of increasing study (kutz et al. 2005; pascual et al. 2006), less effort has been focused on identifying the indirect changes in pathogen transmission that are likely to result from temperature-mediated shifts in host-parasite interactions. threshold temperatures, q10 rates and other measures of temperature sensitivity as well as physiological responses such as thermal limits are a promising way forward in the development of a mechanistic understanding of how climate change could indirectly shift disease dynamics. climate change will almost certainly cause net increases in some diseases and net decreases in others (lafferty, 2009). identifying patterns in the temperature sensitivity of groups of pathogens and hosts may offer insight into both the direct and indirect mechanisms for climate-driven changes in disease. understanding the potential responses of multiple parasite life stages and host physiological responses to temperature will allow more robust inferences about the influence of temperature on parasite dynamics and may identify which portions of their life cycles will be most susceptible to change.
Give an example of misperception that exist in understanding about carbon emissions?
ozone depletion is caused by carbon emissions
what is the misperception about carbon monoxide?
we also find confusion around carbon monoxide as a cause of climate change
what  is a common theme in participants' understanding of carbon, consistent with respondents' attitudes to climate change?
uncertainty and lack of knowledge
responses also suggest a number of misperceptions exist in understanding about carbon emissions. for example, some indicated ozone depletion is caused by carbon emissions (a common misperception - see, e.g., whitmarsh, 2009b). we also find confusion around carbon monoxide as a cause of climate change, which has not previously been mentioned in the literature. examples of both of these types of misperceptions include: 'the emissions that are potentially damaging the ozone layer' (p183) 'carbon monoxide that is omitted [sic] into the atmosphere' (p465) furthermore, uncertainty and lack of knowledge is a common theme in participants' understanding of carbon, consistent with respondents' attitudes to climate change. typical responses include: 'a compound found in gases that may be bad for the environment' (p61) 'not a great deal, but do know it is damaging the environment' (p36)
Purpose of role play?
a role-play game was developed in order to understand how participants view and might use seasonal forecasts
How many time played Ha Tihaku?
the role-play game was played six times within one week in ha tlhaku
How many people are played in the game?
22
a role-play game was developed in order to understand how participants view and might use seasonal forecasts. previous fieldwork used surveys to establish how farmers could use the seasonal forecast, but the results were not detailed enough to give an understanding of how the forecast could be integrated into decision making. the role play, therefore, was developed out of the surveys in an attempt to contextualize the forecast information and put people in a more 'normal' decision-making context where they could think about their households and the range of decisions they make each year at the beginning of the rainy season. decisions were characterized on an annual basis for the start of the season and were sequential because decisions made in one year usually depend on what has happened in the previous year and on the future vision or strategy of the household (weber and sonka 1994). the role-play game was played six times within one week in ha tlhaku. two of the games were played with individuals, one with a male group, two with female groups and one with a mixed group. the groups consisted of between three and six people with 22 people participating in total. the participants had to own or work in fields in order to participate. typically, the chief would send out a messenger in the morning and ask women to participate, for example. if people did not arrive, then a household would be visited and asked if they would participate. two sesothospeaking agricultural graduates acted as extension agents and facilitated the game; one asked the questions in sesotho and the other one recorded the answers in english. the exercise, which usually lasted for about two hours, was done in the month of september 2001, which is the month preceding the start of the rainy season. each game consisted of three rounds played over three imaginary years. the first round took place in 'the present year', which was 2001. participants were asked to draw their village on a large sheet of paper. everyone was encouraged to make at least one mark on the sheet. they were then asked to look at what they had drawn and say what decisions they would have to make in the season with regards to their resources, including fields, livestock, water resources and general household decisions. in the second round they had to pretend that it was the same time the following year, 2002. a forecast for below normal rainfall was read out in sesotho as though it were a radio broadcast. they then had to reassess their decisions in the light of the new information and state what decisions and activities they would undertake for that year. the facilitators asked a series of questions concerning how they would explain the forecast to their neighbour and what advice they would give them on how to prepare for the season. they were also asked if, and how, they would act on the radio forecast or whether they would wait and see what the rains were like. a third round was played for 2003, but this time the forecast was for above normal rainfall
What is typically a local phenomenon?
land cover, typically, is a local phenomenon
What is the upward approach also known as?
the first is the upward or mechanistic approach
land cover, typically, is a local phenomenon, so the impact of any disturbance is likely to strongly decrease with catchment size. the position in the landscape will modulate the scale effects. in contrast, climate impacts may occur at larger scales so one would expect them to be apparent in both small and large catchments and be consistent in a region. river training impacts are likely to increase with catchment size as there is a general tendency for larger settlements and hence large-scale flood protection works at larger streams. the schematic of figure 1 visualises hypothesised relative roles of climate and land use changes. the crossover point on the figure is likely to vary from catchment to catchment as hydrology is a context-dependent discipline, i.e. it matters where/when/how processes occur. for example, land cover effects in the tropics are fundamentally different from those in humid climates as, typically, erosion plays a much more important role (bonell and bruijnzeel, 2005). in different hydrological settings the impacts will become important at different scales. for the particular case of the sahel, mah'e et al (2005a) suggest that environmental change effects in runoff stem, in equal parts, from climate oscillation and land cover changes. however, very little is known on the scales of impact of the various controls that can be generalized to different environments. the unesco division of water sciences has initiated a working group on identifying the relative role of climatic variability and land cover change on floods and low flows as a function of spatial scale. the mandate of the working group is to summarize the state-of-the-art of the subject, develop the key science questions, plan a five-year research strategy for testing in hydrology for the environment, life and policy (help) basins and other research experimental basins, and plan a series of workshops. this paper summarizes the findings of a working group meeting held in vienna during 28-30 november 2005, to provide a road map of how to address these issues and act as a catalyst for motivating communication and targeted research. there are two main approaches to address the issue (sivapalan et al ., 2003a). the first is the upward or mechanistic approach, which, in the present context, consists of model cascades with each of the models representing sub-processes such as rainfall processes, flow in the subsurface, etc. this approach is amenable to analysing causal controls but the result is largely a reflection of the assumptions involved, including model structure. interrelationships and scale effects may be difficult to capture, and it may be difficult to define the model structure and the parameters in a realistic way. the second approach is the downward approach, which, in the present context, consists of trend analyses of long runoff data series and paired catchment studies. its strength is to capture the summary effect of all controls but it is difficult to identify the causality, as the data may be ambiguous. fao (2000), p. 2 notes: 'as a general rule, impacts of land use activities on hydrological and sediment-related processes can only be verified at smaller scales (upto some tens of square kilometres) where they can be
What has caused the rise in global atmospheric temperature since the mid-nineteenth century?
he ipcc's fourth assessment report concludes that it is extremely likely that the rise in global atmospheric temperature that has taken place since the mid-nineteenth century has been caused by human activities
What has the government of Delhi introduced to combat climate change?
the government of delhi has introduced a delhi climate change agenda (2009-2012
What is the aim of the Delhi Climate Change Agenda (2009-2012)?
the agenda primarily aims to reduce delhi's carbon footprint by identifying a set of 65 action points that each department within the delhi government
the ipcc's fourth assessment report concludes that it is extremely likely that the rise in global atmospheric temperature that has taken place since the mid-nineteenth century has been caused by human activities.(1) urban centres are not only the generators of greenhouse gas (ghg) emissions, which are the main causes, of climate change, but, in turn, are also affected by the impacts of climate change. cities, as concentrations of large populations, are at risk of the impacts of climate change on infrastructure, human lives, human health, personal property, environmental quality and future prosperity. cities should not be seen only as centres of ghg emissions, as they also play a key role in strategies to reduce these.(2) the need for city governments to reduce emissions is well established, and many city governments in europe and north america are already acting on this. in india too, the government of delhi has introduced a delhi climate change agenda (2009-2012), which lays out the necessary actions as outlined in the prime minister's national action plan on climate change. the agenda primarily aims to reduce delhi's carbon footprint by identifying a set of 65 action points that each department within the delhi government would have
What employs a system of regressions?
the commercial conditional consumption analysis employs a system of regressions
Which firms use less of gas and oil?
firms that experience relatively warmer winters use less of gas and oil
What is the own-price elasticities for electricity consumption?
for electricity consumption, the own-price elasticities range from -1.1 to -2.1
the commercial conditional consumption analysis employs a system of regressions as shown in equation (9). table vi presents just the marginal climate and price effects (the quantitative results are presented in table a.v.). as expected, firms that experience relatively warmer winters use less of gas and oil. firms that experience relatively warmer summers use more electricity and (as with the residential customers) more oil. on net, firms in warmer areas use more electricity and less gas. as with non-pipeable households, firms' energy demand is not sensitive to precipitation. overall, firms are relatively sensitive to the prices of the fuels they consume. for electricity consumption, the own-price elasticities range from -1.1 to -2.1. the own-price elasticities are relatively large in magnitude for natural gas, -2.0, and for oil, -3.8. in contrast, district heat consumption is inelastic, -0.3. district heat is characteristically used in multi-building non-profit institutions.19 one possible explanation for the low price elasticity is that non-profits are poor managers and fail to respond to prices by encouraging conservation. most of the coefficients on 19 19 the firm characteristics are consistent with expectations. for example, larger buildings and buildings that are open for more months use more energy. it is interesting to note that newer buildings use more energy. although it is likely that new buildings are more energy efficient, they have more energy using operations than older buildings and so demand more energy.
Where is often used the term 'resilience', related with climate change?
the term 'resilience' is increasingly used in the context of discussion, policies and programming around climate change adaptation1 ('adaptation') and disaster risk reduction2 (drr
What's the intent of this paper about the concept of 'resilience' in different fields?
this paper reviews academic use of the concept of 'resilience' in social, ecological and socioecological systems and its application to the climate, disaster and development nexus
There are ten key characteristics of resilience: what are they?
high diversity; effective governance and institutions; the ability to work with uncertainty and change; community involvement and the appropriation of local knowledge; preparedness and planning for disturbances; high social and economic equity; robust social values and structures, acknowledging non equilibrium dynamics, continual and effective learning and the adoption of a cross-scalar perspective
aam version. please cite as: bahadur, a.v. ibrahim, m. and tanner, t. (2013) 'characterising resilience: unpacking the concept for tackling climate change and development'. climate and development (5) 1, pp 55-65. the term 'resilience' is increasingly used in the context of discussion, policies and programming around climate change adaptation1 ('adaptation') and disaster risk reduction2 (drr). it has become particularly popular to describe the intersection between these two fields and those of poverty and development, and 'climate resilient development' is rapidly becoming a catch-all for tackling climate change impacts in a development context. this paper reviews academic use of the concept of 'resilience' in social, ecological and socioecological systems and its application to the climate, disaster and development nexus. from this review, we distil ten key characteristics of resilience: high diversity; effective governance and institutions; the ability to work with uncertainty and change; community involvement and the appropriation of local knowledge; preparedness and planning for disturbances; high social and economic equity; robust social values and structures, acknowledging non equilibrium dynamics, continual and effective learning and the adoption of a cross-scalar perspective. finally we highlight knowledge gaps and suggest directions for further research. key words: resilience, adaptation, disaster risk reduction, climate resilient development, socio-ecological systems.
An assessment of the role of the long-term warming trend show?
an assessment of the role of the long-term warming trend shows that it forces a high anomaly over the northeast pacific resulting in less north pacific storms reaching california
What does the warming trend lead to?
the warming trend, however, also leads to increased atmospheric humidity over the northeast pacific, thus, facilitating wetter events over california
Which part of United States is affected by warming trends resulting in wetter events?
the warming trend, however, also leads to increased atmospheric humidity over the northeast pacific, thus, facilitating wetter events over california
s11 september 2014 american meteorological society the concurrent sst anomalies do force a predilection for dry events over california though considerably weaker than observed, suggesting that atmospheric internal variability accounts for the extreme magnitude of this climate event. an assessment of the role of the long-term warming trend shows that it forces a high anomaly over the northeast pacific resulting in less north pacific storms reaching california. the warming trend, however, also leads to increased atmospheric humidity over the northeast pacific, thus, facilitating wetter events over california. the above two effects appear to counteract each other, contributing to no appreciable long-term change in the risk for dry climate extremes over california since the late 19th century.
Give the three types of biotic responses ?
i) persistence if species tolerance limits are still within the changed climate parameters, (ii) range shifts (migration) to allow organisms to continue to thrive within their tolerance limits or (iii) extinction
Explain the extinction ?
the third possibility recognises that there are genetic constraints and that some species simply do not have the ability to adapt rapidly enough, either physiologically or genetically
Give the result of first possibility for the management of invasive species ?
the first possibility can have implications for the management of invasive species; even if the range does not change, the damage function (mcdonald et al. 2009) may shift as discussed previously
given the need to incorporate evolution in the prediction of invasiveness using models (whitney gabler, 2008), is it possible to predict with some precision the extent of the evolutionary change possible? this is a daunting challenge, given the somewhat capricious nature of evolutionary change. model predictions are based on plant physiological ecology and to incorporate genetic factors necessarily adds another layer of complexity. davis et al. (2005) pointed out that there are three biotic responses to climate change, with all three involving evolution: (i) persistence if species tolerance limits are still within the changed climate parameters, (ii) range shifts (migration) to allow organisms to continue to thrive within their tolerance limits or (iii) extinction. the third possibility recognises that there are genetic constraints and that some species simply do not have the ability to adapt rapidly enough, either physiologically or genetically. the first possibility can have implications for the management of invasive species; even if the range does not change, the damage function (mcdonald et al. 2009) may shift as discussed previously. even aside from evolutionary change, there is potential for rapid expansion of weed ranges, e.g. in the us maize belt
Why do they use daily likelihoods to show the models?
we preferred to use daily instead of hourly likelihoods to illustrate the performance of the model because we are more interested in the long-term response, and the circadian dynamics of transpiration are largely dominated by et, which is an input of the model
How may runs they carried out for each tree?
previous to the calibration simulations we carried out 1,000 runs for each individual tree
What kind of measure is used?
the likelihood measure used in this study is based on the sum of squares of the residuals
previous to the calibration simulations we carried out 1,000 runs for each individual tree in which the scaling factor varied randomly an order of magnitude around the mean al:asw measured for the species. the value of the scaling factor that produced the best fit (higher likelihood) for each tree was selected, and allowed to vary by 10% in the following calibration simulations. we preferred to use daily instead of hourly likelihoods to illustrate the performance of the model because we are more interested in the long-term response, and the circadian dynamics of transpiration are largely dominated by et, which is an input of the model. the likelihood measure used in this study is based on the sum of squares of the residuals (beven binley 1992):
Name four main types of uses that may form part of Integrated water resource systems.
integrated water resource systems aim to manage water for various uses including agriculture, industry, domestic consumption, and the environment, and have been implemented in some catchments in europe, north america, and australia
What will be important to allow for integrated control of increasingly scarce water resources in future?
reforming existing water management institutions and creating new authorities will be important to allow for integrated control of increasingly scarce water resources, especially in planning for, and managing, drought, and, where appropriate, in encouraging transitions to forms of agriculture and industry with low water requirements
integrated water resource systems aim to manage water for various uses including agriculture, industry, domestic consumption, and the environment, and have been implemented in some catchments in europe, north america, and australia. managing competing demands for water from various sectors will become more contentious under conditions of water scarcity and drought that are likely to increase under climate change. reforming existing water management institutions and creating new authorities will be important to allow for integrated control of increasingly scarce water resources, especially in planning for, and managing, drought, and, where appropriate, in encouraging transitions to forms of agriculture and industry with low water requirements. water utilities and regulators need to incorporate climate change predictions and uncertainties when planning and managing water resources and operations, including planning for resilience to drought and fl oods. disaster management planning will also be required to ensure rapid and coordinated responses to fl oods and
What factors influence a society's ability to cope with climate change?
whether "bad" becomes "catastrophic" depends on how human societies can cope, and this is a refl ection of social attitudes and structure, economic and political systems, as well as demographic fundamentals such as the potential labor force
How does soil erosion develop?
soil erosion develops by exploiting breeches in the vegetation cover that allow frost, wind, and rain to move sediment. bare patches of exposed substrait develop, bordered by steep, eroding faces of soil that under-cut and eat into the surrounding vegetated areas. soil erosion then proceeds as a loss of soil area. once established, erosion is resistant to stabilization, as even low grazing intensities will tend to keep bare soil exposed on the eroding slopes, permitting the continued effective action of the elements
What are the two key stages of soil erosion?
it is useful to think of soil erosion having two key stages: a triggering event which results in the breeching of the vegetation cover (and is usually related to grazing), and a propagation phase which is driven by the intensity of frost action, rainfall, slope wash and wind acting on exposed soil
possible explanations for why apparently good practices and proven abilities to adapt and respond effectively to new challenges have produced very mixed results, brings us back to the question of climatic impacts, especially the consequences of the little ice age climate changes (grove 1988; meeker and mayewski 2002). as the climate record through the last two centuries of the norse settlements in greenland includes signifi cant variability it is diffi cult to fasten on any one particular episode of unfavorable weather as the critical event as these repeated frequently. climate change could be most readily translated into effects that people responded to badly by changes that are substantial, unpredictable and repeated, as opposed to changes that are gradual and predictable. whether "bad" becomes "catastrophic" depends on how human societies can cope, and this is a refl ection of social attitudes and structure, economic and political systems, as well as demographic fundamentals such as the potential labor force. although a sudden episode of bad weather in any one year may be diffi cult, a sequence of bad years could rapidly change hardship into crisis and then catastrophe, as the ability to buffer any negative impacts of change are exhausted. extreme events capture the imagination, and it is easy to accept the argument that major, abrupt changes may be signifi cant, but what about the lower order changes, gradual, but signifi cant shifts in climate that erode prosperity and draw down both natural and social capital over a number of years? returning to the example of rangeland management, problems in iceland may well have developed even though people understood environmental dynamics and had sound management mechanisms in place, because of climate changes that unpredictably affected the onset and length of the growing season. although suffi cient biomass could grow through the summer to support the livestock grazing on the hills, a delayed start to the growing season could have resulted in grazing before any growth began, compromising the stability of vegetation cover (simpson et al. 2001). the problem created by short phases of heightened impacts on vegetation could have been compounded by three other factors. first,, minimal (if any) shepherding of livestock utilizing the rangelands, while economizing on labor demands and freeing people for other tasks (such as fi shing or textile production), could have signifi cantly increased potential vulnerability to climatic impacts. without day-to-day management of livestock grazing (to utilize the best or most robust areas of vegetation, and reduce pressure on vulnerable, eroding areas) regeneration would be diffi cult to promote. often in the norse world, however, shepherding was children's work, and so may not have drawn the adult workforce away from other tasks. second, although monitoring the weight of livestock brought down off the hills in the autumn is an effective way to maximize yield, the practice is probably insensitive to the onset of accelerated environmental costs as it is probable that landscape degradation would begin before livestock weight reduction became apparent. as a result, landscape problems could develop before the animal monitoring mechanism highlighted the issue. in this case draw-down of natural capital could have been an immediate consequence of unforeseen (and unmanaged) changes. archaeological surveys have revealed examples of water-management strategies, both to harness snow melting and for irrigation, but most of these measures were focused on the home-fi elds, leaving the rangeland more or less untouched. boundary turf walls in the mountain pastures, established to control the pastures (einarsson, hansson, and vesteinsson 2002) may sometimes have prevented, and some times (ironically) have accelerated water erosion. thirdly, the nature of soil erosion in iceland has distinctive features that can effectively propagate initially limited impacts. over most of the landscape vegetated at the time of norse settlement soil cover occurred in the form of a deep  50cm) sediment of aeolian origin with intercalated layers of volcanic ash (dugmore et al. 2000; thorarinsson 1961). in the south of iceland, lowland presettlement soil covers were commonly several meters deep. once trees have been removed, the root zone is effectively confi ned to upper layers of the soil, and does not extend down into the underlying substrait of coarse-grained sediments. soil erosion develops by exploiting breeches in the vegetation cover that allow frost, wind, and rain to move sediment. bare patches of exposed substrait develop, bordered by steep, eroding faces of soil that under-cut and eat into the surrounding vegetated areas. soil erosion then proceeds as a loss of soil area. once established, erosion is resistant to stabilization, as even low grazing intensities will tend to keep bare soil exposed on the eroding slopes, permitting the continued effective action of the elements. it is useful to think of soil erosion having two key stages: a triggering event which results in the breeching of the vegetation cover (and is usually related to grazing), and a propagation phase which is driven by the intensity of frost action, rainfall, slope wash and wind acting on exposed soil. a simple return to the conditions prevailing before the onset of soil erosion does not necessarily result in a cessation of erosion, and in that respect soil erosion is best regarded as a threshold change that has the form of a catastrophe cusp. although erosion could have been triggered by a mismatch between land use and the growing
What is done to maintain the baseline consumption levels for the present?
however, along with this optimal abatement strategy, we undertake fiscal tax and transfer policies to maintain the baseline consumption levels for the present (say for 50 years
What is the level of comsuption of the optimal abatement strategy?
the optimum might have slightly lower consumption in the early years, so the fiscal-policy experiment would involve both abatement and fiscal deficits and debt accumulation for some time, followed by fiscal surpluses and debt repayment later
What the "optimal-plus-deficit" does in essence?
in essence, this alternative keeps consumption the same for the present but rearranges societal investments away from conventional capital (structures, equipment, education, and the like) to investments in abatement of ghg emissions (in "climate capital," so to speak
then, adopt a set of abatement strategies that correspond to the then, adopt a set of abatement strategies that correspond to the optimum in the ramsey growth model. however, along with this optimal abatement strategy, we undertake fiscal tax and transfer policies to maintain the baseline consumption levels for the present (say for 50 years). the optimum might have slightly lower consumption in the early years, so the fiscal-policy experiment would involve both abatement and fiscal deficits and debt accumulation for some time, followed by fiscal surpluses and debt repayment later. call this the "optimal-plus-deficit" strategy. in essence, this alternative keeps consumption the same for the present but rearranges societal investments away from conventional capital (structures, equipment, education, and the like) to investments in abatement of ghg emissions (in "climate capital," so to speak).
What is the heart of behavioural studies of organisations?
the notion of routines is at the heart of behavioural studies of organisations (cyert and march, 1963; nelson and winter, 1982
What is the meaning of routines?
routines are the means by which organisations carry out activities by matching appropriate procedures to situations they face, whether ordinary or extraordinary
What are the variety of phenomena found in routine?
routines include a wide variety of phenomena: rules, procedures, strategies, technologies, conventions, cultures and beliefs around which organisations are built and through which they operate
the notion of routines is at the heart of behavioural studies of organisations (cyert and march, 1963; nelson and winter, 1982). routines are the means by which organisations carry out activities by matching appropriate procedures to situations they face, whether ordinary or extraordinary. this process of matching generally does not involve rational choices between alternatives, but is rather the enactment of processes that are seen as suitable and legitimate given a recognised set of circumstances. routines include a wide variety of phenomena: rules, procedures, strategies, technologies, conventions, cultures and beliefs around which organisations are built and through which they operate. at any one moment, the routines enacted by individuals and subunits in an organisation are those that have been selected as being advantageous through a process of experience and learning. these activities, which are geared to the operational functioning of the organisation, have been referred to as operating routines (zollo and winter, 2002: 340). routines are modified or adapted when the organisation experiences novel situations for which appropriate procedures have not yet been developed, when existing routines prove to be unsuccessful, or when alternative routines which promise greater advantages are discovered internally or externally (gavetti and levinthal, 2000). in these situations, routines are adapted incrementally in response to feedback about outcomes (steinbruner, 1974). however, this process of modification requires special effort on the part of the organisation and a specific set of capabilities. 138 learning to adapt
How is climate change effecting conservation?
climate change
Why is climate change unpredictable?
unpredictable
How is conservation effecting local communities?
conservation and local communities
issues that currently challenge conservation practice may need to be addressed before the added stress of climate change complicates them further. communities of local users are often in conflict with conservation objectives chan et al., 2007; suffling and scott, 2002). identifying opportunities for reduced conflict and increased synergy between conservation and local communities will become more important as climate changes. a number of authors warn that conservation policies must create positive economic outcomes for local peoples to buffer them against potentially dramatic shifts in livelihoods that will accompany climate shifts (rank 9). adaptation requires community buy-in and participation chapin et al., 2006). to this end, conservation policies that foster learning and participation ramakrishnan, 1998 and provide options that are culturally and economically appropriate, such as those that honor traditional management systems and do not rely on expensive technologies, are more likely to be embraced and implemented (rank 14). mcclanahan et al. (2008) argue that climate-informed conservation planning necessitates site-specific understanding of environmental susceptibility and societal capacity to cope and adapt. they illustrate this process for five western indian ocean countries with respect to coral reef conservation. locations with high environmental susceptibility and low adaptive capacity will be most difficult to secure effectively in the future, while those with low environmental susceptibility and high adaptive capacity will be easiest. locations with low environmental susceptibility and low adaptive capacity are good candidates for biodiversity investment, but to be effective these locations also require investments in human infrastructure, livelihood diversification and social capital. climate change is acting in concert with multiple other drivers of biodiversity loss including habitat degradation, soil loss, nitrogen enrichment, and acidification. strong policies must simultaneously address more than one issue watson, 2005) or risk exacerbating environmental problems in the process of trying to combat them. emission reduction programs are a significant push for many governments, organizations and individuals. they warrant an important place in any climate change combat strategy (rank 13). a number of authors in this review urge, however, that emissions reduction programs and the clean development mechanisms (cdms) in the kyoto protocol be implemented in ways that simultaneously address carbon sequestration, biodiversity conservation and human livelihoods, rather than carbon sequestration in isolation (rank 11). finally, climate change provides a much-needed impetus to evaluate how conservation policies respond to change in general. climate change is only one of several global environmental trends to which biodiversity and its conservation must respond. uncertainty in the climate change arena and about the future in general should not limit action to strengthen existing conservation strategies, with a focus on enhancing the ability of ecosystems to absorb and recover from rapid and unpredictable change.
What do direct variables affect?
direct variables affect organisms of the focal species physiologically but are not consumed by them
Resource variables affect organisms of which species physiologically and are consumed by them?
resource variables affect organisms of the focal species physiologically and are consumed by them
What two factors refer to the position of the predictor in the chain of processes that link the predictor to its impact" on the organism of the focal species?
proximal and distal refer to the position of the predictor in the chain of processes that link the predictor to its impact" on the organism of the focal species
selecting data and transferring niche models selecting predictor variables: three parallel classifications to make fully niche-based models, researchers must follow important principles regarding the selection of predictor variables and occurrence data. three parallel classification schemes provide helpful guidance when selecting variables and considering their utility under spatial or temporal transfer (table 3). on the basis of the physiological effects for a given species, the first classification assigns variables as indirect, direct, or resource.28indirect variables hold no physiological effect on organisms of the focal species but are correlated with the species' distribution because of correlations with other factors. direct variables affect organisms of the focal species physiologically but are not consumed by them. resource variables affect organisms of the focal species physiologically and are consumed by them. the second classification reflects the relative degree of causality of the focal species' response, with variables being either proximal or progressively more distal in causation (i.e., not in space). "proximal and distal refer to the position of the predictor in the chain of processes that link the predictor to its impact" on the organism of the focal species (p. 105).28
What UASB means?
upflow anaerobic sludge blanket
How the  system of septic tanks works?
the system of septic tanks followed by anaerobic filters
How manys the septic tank can be?
the septic tank can be a single-chamber tank or a two-compartment tank
uasb (upflow anaerobic sludge blanket) reactor a) septic tank - anaerobic filter system the system of septic tanks followed by anaerobic filters (figure 4.21) has been widely used in rural areas and in small sized communities. the septic tanks remove most of the suspended solids, which settle and undergo anaerobic digestion at the bottom of the tank. the septic tank can be a single-chamber tank or a two-compartment tank (called an imhoff tank). in the single chamber tank, there is no physical separation between overview of wastewater treatment systems 199 the regions of the raw sewage solids sedimentation and bottom sludge digestion. the single chamber tanks can be single or in series. in the imhoff tank, settling occurs in the upper compartment (settling compartment). the settled solids pass through an opening at the bottom of the compartment and are directed to the bottom compartment (digestion compartment). the accumulated sludge then undergoes anaerobic digestion. the gases originating from the anaerobic digestion do not interfere with the settling process, as they cannot penetrate inside the sedimentation chamber. because septic tanks are sedimentation tanks (no biochemical reactions in the liquid phase), bod removal is limited. the effluent, still with high organic matter concentration, goes to the anaerobic filter, where further removal takes place under anaerobic conditions. the filter is a biofilm reactor: the biomass grows attached to a support medium, usually stone. the following points are characteristic of anaerobic filters, differing from the trickling filters, which are also biofilm reactors (see section 4.5.6):
What is RFI?
radiative forcing index
f due to its co2 emissions - this yields the so-called radiative forcing index (rfi); in itself, the rfi is a useful concept for indicating the contribution of non-co2 emissions at a given time. unfortunately, the rfi has been misapplied in some quarters as if it were an emission metric, which it clearly is not, as it is dependent on the history of past emissions. a discussion of some of the problems in applying the rfi as an emissions metric is given in appendix 1 but, briefly, the application of the rfi appears inconsistent with the use of gwps within the kyoto protocol, its suggested use seems to have been restricted to a single sector (i.e. aviation) and its use could result in inappropriate measures being taken, in attempts to reduce the climate impact of emissions from a sector. the
What is kjt?
kjt is the stock of knowledge accumulated in the recipient country
What djt?
djt is a variable capturing factors that affect the demand for technology in the recipient country
What can the log-linear form be written as?
the log-linear form of (2) can be written as follows: (3) where lower case letters denote the logs of the initial variables
before moving to the econometric estimations, let us specify the vector of control variables as a function of two variables: (with ). kjt is the stock of knowledge accumulated in the recipient country. this captures the usual view in the literature on technology diffusion that accumulated knowledge increases the ability to exploit new technologies. djt is a variable capturing factors that affect the demand for technology in the recipient country. after substituting for in (2), the log-linear form of (2) can be written as follows: (3) where lower case letters denote the logs of the initial variables. we will use this equation a basis for our econometric estimations1.
what causes economy to collapse
climate change
what is the cost of loss in banglasesh due to climate change?
this is estimated to cost bangladesh us$26 billion in total gdp over the 45-year period 2005-50, equivalent to us$570 million overall lost each year due to climate change, or alternatively an average annual 1.15 per cent reduction in total gdp. average loss in agricultural gdp due to climate change is projected to be a third of the agricultural gdp losses associated with existing climate variability
explain the uncertainty surrounding GCMs and emission scenarios.
costs may be as high as us$1 billion per year in 2005-50 under less optimistic scenarios. moreover, these economic losses are projected to rise in later years, thus underlining the need to address climate change related losses in the near-term
climate change also has broader economy-wide implications. this is estimated to cost bangladesh us$26 billion in total gdp over the 45-year period 2005-50, equivalent to us$570 million overall lost each year due to climate change, or alternatively an average annual 1.15 per cent reduction in total gdp. average loss in agricultural gdp due to climate change is projected to be a third of the agricultural gdp losses associated with existing climate variability. uncertainty surrounding gcms and emission scenarios means that costs may be as high as us$1 billion per year in 2005-50 under less optimistic scenarios. moreover, these economic losses are projected to rise in later years, thus underlining the need to address climate change related losses in the near-term.
How IGCM's climate varies?
we have shown that the igcm's climate displays varying levels of sensitivity to different forcing agents and that, in particular, the value of l for an idealised globally uniform distribution of aerosols differs from that for carbon dioxide and solar irradiance forcing when the single-scattering albedo is less than unity
Whether findings of Hansen et al. (1997), l  is constant?
it is also clear that, in agreement with the findings of hansen et al. (1997), l is not constant for changing o
Define the contribution of feedback mechanisms?
the contribution of feedback mechanisms is implicit in the definition of l as employed in this study and the dependence of these mechanisms on the forcing agent lends to a variable climate sensitivity
we have shown that the igcm's climate displays varying levels of sensitivity to different forcing agents and that, in particular, the value of l for an idealised globally uniform distribution of aerosols differs from that for carbon dioxide and solar irradiance forcing when the single-scattering albedo is less than unity. it is also clear that, in agreement with the findings of hansen et al. (1997), l is not constant for changing o the contribution of feedback mechanisms is implicit in the definition of l as employed in this study and the dependence of these mechanisms on the forcing agent lends to a variable climate sensitivity. hence, [?] fa is rendered a poor predictor of the sign and magnitude of climate response to absorbing aerosol forcing. as a consequence of the feedback processes initiated by absorbing aerosol forcing, we also find that o* fis unreliable as an indicator of the sign of [?] ts and should not be used to ascertain the surface temperature response to observed aerosol single-scattering albedo. the values of o* tfound in this study suggest
What's one of the main conclusions from research on sense-making?
one of the main conclusions from research on sense-making in organisations is that interpretations of experience depend on the frames of reference within which that experience is understood
Is it easy to challenge these frames of reference?
there is generally a resistance to drawing conclusions that challenge these frames of reference, so that organisational myths, beliefs and paradigms are maintained, often in the face of considerable counter-evidence
What are the main reasons why evidence from experience may sometimes fail to be recognised as significant?
research has identified a range of reasons why evidence from experience may fail to be recognised and interpreted as significant. these include scarcity of evidence, blindness to evidence, and uncertainty in assessing the relevance of evidence
in studies of organisational learning, change in routines comes about in response to direct organisational experience. however, before change can be initiated, a signal needs to be recognised as evidence of a novel situation, in response to which existing routines are inappropriate or ineffective. one of the main conclusions from research on sense-making in organisations is that interpretations of experience depend on the frames of reference within which that experience is understood (daft and weick, 1984). there is generally a resistance to drawing conclusions that challenge these frames of reference, so that organisational myths, beliefs and paradigms are maintained, often in the face of considerable counter-evidence. evidence derived from experience is more likely to be recognised the more frequent, unambiguous and salient it is to an organisation. research has identified a range of reasons why evidence from experience may fail to be recognised and interpreted as significant. these include scarcity of evidence, blindness to evidence, and uncertainty in assessing the relevance of evidence (levitt and march, 1988: 333). 2.4. experimentation and search
To what model budget constraints were added?
in this section, we add budget constraints to the model (5.1) and discuss implications for the balance between mitigation, proactive adaptation and reactive adaptation (5.2
Whit what was the discussion started?
we start the discussion with a national budget constraint, move to a national rainy-day fund, and then conclude with a global rainy-day fund. 5.1
What was introduced to the model?
we introduce national budget constraints to the model
in this section, we add budget constraints to the model (5.1) and discuss implications for the balance between mitigation, proactive adaptation and reactive adaptation (5.2). since neither reactive nor proactive adaptation provide a satisfactory answer to the constraints imposed by uncertainty on location and risks of future budget constraints, a third instrument--rainy-day funds--is explored in subsection (5.3). we start the discussion with a national budget constraint, move to a national rainy-day fund, and then conclude with a global rainy-day fund. 5.1. the model with national budget constraints we introduce national budget constraints to the model. technically, let be the maximum available resources to finance mitigation, proactive adaptation and reactive adaptation at period
What is tufa?
volcanic stone, which is highly aerated and provides excellent insulation and thermal mass
How many climate strategies are used in the building?
there are five key climatic strategies used in the building
Why were windowed galleria chosen?
windowed galleria provided a thermal buffer for the family living rooms from the direct penetration of sun and hot air when closed in mid-summer into the family living room complexes, but enabled them to be nocturnally ventilated
the whole building is constructed of tufa, or volcanic stone, which is highly aerated and provides excellent insulation and thermal mass. there are five key climatic strategies used in the building. massive walls create interseasonal heat and coolth stores. windowed galleria provided a thermal buffer for the family living rooms from the direct penetration of sun and hot air when closed in mid-summer into the family living room complexes, but enabled them to be nocturnally ventilated. windows were carefully sized to prevent excessive solar gain. a complex ventilation system dependent on two stack systems in the staircases created the churn to drive cross-ventilation in the interconnected chambers, particularly in the main north-facing summer rooms on the south of the building facing the street. in winter the double-depth winter living rooms are not so connected. the stack would have drawn cool air from the colonnaded and planted courtyard below during the day, being driven by temperature difference up through the stack, and at night this churn would have been enhanced by the warmer air rising from the courtyard floor.
What can affect interpersonal and intergroup behavior?
increasing frequency and intensity of extreme temperatures and weather events, and increased competition for scarce natural resources, on top of existing social inequities, are likely to affect interpersonal and intergroup behavior and may result in increased stress and anxiety
Who can experience mental health consequences?
populations exposed to extreme weather events such as hurricanes, tornados, floods, fires, drought, and tsunamis may experience immediate mental health consequences
Hurricane Katrina examples are?
coker et al. (34) report that 63% of hurricane katrina evacuees experienced either moderate or severe symptoms of post-traumatic stress disorder. however, most psychosocial effects of climate change are likely to be gradual and cumulative
increasing frequency and intensity of extreme temperatures and weather events, and increased competition for scarce natural resources, on top of existing social inequities, are likely to affect interpersonal and intergroup behavior and may result in increased stress and anxiety. even in the absence of direct impacts, the perception and fear of climate change may threaten mental health (32, 33). populations exposed to extreme weather events such as hurricanes, tornados, floods, fires, drought, and tsunamis may experience immediate mental health consequences. coker et al. (34) report that 63% of hurricane katrina evacuees experienced either moderate or severe symptoms of post-traumatic stress disorder. however, most psychosocial effects of climate change are likely to be gradual and cumulative. climate change-vulnerable communities are beginning to experience disruptions to the social and economic determinants
What is this article about?
the arctic is experiencing some of the most rapid and severe changes in climate on earth (post, 2011
how is the temperature change happening?
temperatures are increasing at a rate twice the global average
What are severe threat to Coastal communities?
coastal communities are severely threatened by erosion as diminishing pack ice leaves coastlines exposed to increasingly severe storms, leading in some cases to community relocations (bronen, 2009
the arctic is experiencing some of the most rapid and severe changes in climate on earth (post, 2011). temperatures are increasing at a rate twice the global average. arctic sea ice cover at the end of the melt season has hit record lows, and this downward trend is accelerating (stroeve, 2009; stroeve et al., 2012), over the next century, climate change is expected to accelerate, contributing further to the major physical, ecological, social and economic changes already underway in the region (macdonald, 2010). a wide range of impacts are being reported. the timing, length and character of the seasons are changing, making weather patterns less predictable (weatherhead, gearheard and barry, 2010). receding and thinning ice is making travel on frozen seas, rivers or lakes increasingly hazardous (riedlinger and berkes, 2001; laidler, 2009; krupnik et al., 2010), while melting permafrost changes spring runoff patterns, destabilizes roads and community infrastructure, and renders traditional storage in permafrost cellars obsolete (evengard and mcmichael, 2011). coastal communities are severely threatened by erosion as diminishing pack ice leaves coastlines exposed to increasingly severe storms, leading in some cases to community relocations (bronen, 2009). increased variability in snow and ice conditions is having a profound effect on the distribution and migration patterns of many animals, including emblematic arctic species such as the bowhead whale balaena mysticetus (sakakibara, 2010) and the polar bear ursus maritimus ). more southerly species are moving 81
What is the hypothesis for limitations
a. ice cores ice core temperature analysis uses isotopes of ice core h ice core temperature analysis uses isotopes of ice core h2o to determine the temperature when and where the snowflakes formed
Why are changes being suggested to ice core temperature readings?
the aim of producing a more homogeneous record
Who has not been acting on recent data
has not been recognized and acted on by the international political community
however, the need for a co however, the need for a co2 target below the current co2 amount, and the rapid emissions reduction that such a target implies, has not been recognized and acted on by the international political community. thus there is an urgency to extract and clarify the implications of paleoclimate data for human-made climate change. ice core and ocean core records each have limitations as a measure of global temperature. here we point out constraints on both records and hypothesize a reason why these two records seem to differ during recent interglacial periods. a. ice cores ice core temperature analysis uses isotopes of ice core h ice core temperature analysis uses isotopes of ice core h2o to determine the temperature when and where the snowflakes formed. we divide the ice core temperature change by two to obtain the estimated global mean temperature change in fig. 4, because that factor brings the ice core temperature change between the holocene and the last ice age into agreement with global temperature data available for this most recent glacial-interglacial climate change. climate models also yield polar amplification of surface temperature change by about a factor of two. several adjustments to the ice core temperature record have been suggested with the aim of producing a more homogeneous record6
What can the multimodal combination technique be used to estimate?
multimodel combination is a pragmatic and wellaccepted technique to estimate the range of uncertainties induced by model error and to improve the climate projections
Why should models be weighted based on their prior performance?
since models differ in their quality and prediction skill, weighting the participating models according to their prior performance has been suggested
What can cause the skill difference between two models to be underestimated?
if model error correlation is neglected, the skill difference between the two models is underestimated
multimodel combination is a pragmatic and wellaccepted technique to estimate the range of uncertainties induced by model error and to improve the climate projections. the simplest way to construct a multimodel is to give one vote to each model, that is, to combine the models with equal weights. since models differ in their quality and prediction skill, weighting the participating models according to their prior performance has been suggested, which is an approach that has been proven to be successful in weather and seasonal forecasting. in the present study, we have analyzed the prospects and risks of model weighting within the context of multidecadal climate change projections. it has been our aim to arrive at a conclusion as to whether or not the application of model weights can be recommended. on shorter time scales, such an assessment can be carried out in the form of a statistically robust verification of the predictand of interest. for climate change projections, however, this is hardly possible due to the long time scales involved. therefore, our study has been based on an idealized framework of climate change projections. this framework has been designed such that it allows us to assess, in generic terms, the effects of multimodel combination independently of the model error magnitudes, the degree of model error correlation, and the amount of unpredictable noise (internal variability). the key results, many of which are consistent with experience from seasonal forecasting, can be summarized as follows: 1) equally weighted multimodels yield, on average, more accurate projections than do the participating single models alone, at least if the skill difference between the single models is not too large. 2) the projection errors can be further reduced by model weighting, at least in principle. the optimum weights are thereby not only a function of the single model error uncertainties, but also depend on the degree of model error correlation and the relative magnitude of the unpredictable noise. neglecting the latter two aspects can lead to severely biased estimates of optimum weights. if model error correlation is neglected, the skill difference between the two models is underestimated; if internal variability is neglected, the skill difference is overestimated. 3) evidence from several studies suggests that the task of finding robust and representative weights for climate models is certainly a difficult problem. this is due to (i) the inconveniently long time scales considered, which strongly limit the number of available verification samples; (ii) nonstationarities of model skill under a changing climate; and (iii) the lack of convincing alternative ways to accurately determine skill. 4) if model weights are applied that do not reflect the true model error uncertainties, then the weighted multimodel may have much lower skill than the unweighted one. in many cases, more information may actually be lost by inappropriate weighting than can potentially be gained by optimum weighting. 5) this asymmetry between potential loss due to inappropriate weights and potential gain due to optimum weights grows under the influence of unpredictable noise. in fact, if the noise is of comparable or even
How the requirement be solved?
this requirement has been pragmatically resolved by averaging all rcms driven by the same gcm, thus reducing the inter-model correlations
What is the most difficult challenge ?
the most difficult challenge has been the choice of a prior assumption on the magnitude of model error uncertainty
How the choice of value be linked?
we have shown that the choice of this value is directly linked to the posterior projection uncertainty obtained from the bab and is thus of uttermost importance
rcms have been driven by the same gcm and therefore reveal pronounced covariances? this requirement has been pragmatically resolved by averaging all rcms driven by the same gcm, thus reducing the inter-model correlations. the most difficult challenge has been the choice of a prior assumption on the magnitude of model error uncertainty. we have shown that the choice of this value is directly linked to the posterior projection uncertainty obtained from the bab and is thus of uttermost importance. in this study, these prior values have been obtained from the assumption that the model runs available fully sample the range of model uncertainty (given below). more specifically, the prior has been assumed to be decomposable into a sum of two variance estimates, one comprising the variability across the different driving gcms, and one comprising the variability across different rcms driven by the same gcm. on the basis of this methodology, and taking 1980- 2009 as reference period, probabilistic scenarios of temperature and precipitation changes have been obtained which can be summarized as follows:
Define integrated educa tional approach ?
elements of the educational process --each element within the integrated educa tional approach has a different structure designed around the educational objectives, needs of participants, and desired products
What is the outcome?
 the outcomes may include general in formation sharing, integrating climate change adaptation into national forest plans, and altering or creating specific management tools
What did Basic educational seminars convey ?
basic educational seminars convey fundamental principles of climate change and the effects of climate change on ecosystems and generate discussion of how different resource areas can adapt to projected changes
the intent is to effectively use existing information and develop approaches, draw ing from the combined expertise of all participants. elements of the educational process --each element within the integrated educa tional approach has a different structure designed around the educational objectives, needs of participants, and desired products. the outcomes may include general in formation sharing, integrating climate change adaptation into national forest plans, and altering or creating specific management tools. basic educational seminars convey fundamental principles of climate change and the effects of climate change on ecosystems and generate discussion of how different resource areas can adapt to projected changes. oneto two-day seminars consist of presentations on climate change, forest response, and management strategies, followed by a session customized to local needs. the latter session may include brainstorming and discussion or may be used to create lists of potential activities that can occur at the national forest and project levels. facilitators are available to answer questions, provide continuity by sharing ideas from previous seminars, and maintain a dialogue focused on climate change activities. these seminars may be used to set the stage for subsequent training, activities, and intraforest discussion. intensive training includes week-long courses providing more indepth infor mation than the seminars. the course includes prework and a final project to be concluded within the participants' forest. intensive training provides participants with a detailed explanation of fundamental climate processes and interactions, as well as greater detail of the mechanisms of forest response to climate stressors.
When did environmental psychologists start to work on identifying factors predicting environment related behaviour?
since the 1970s, environmental psychologists have worked to identify which factors predict environmentrelated behavior
How is behaviour predicted?
this research has suggested that behavior is predicted by the interplay of three general influences: intrapersonal, such as personality states, values, and motivations; interpersonal, such as social comparison and social norms; and external, such as rewards and punishment
What does the research outline?
research shows an important gap between proenvironmental attitudes and proenvironmental behavior,14-16and more recently several suggestions17and theoretical frameworks have been advanced to explain this weak association. that many barriers may separate intention from action has also been recently documented
since the 1970s, environmental psychologists have worked to identify which factors predict environmentrelated behavior, a line of research which is closely linked to that on climate change.12this research has suggested that behavior is predicted by the interplay of three general influences: intrapersonal, such as personality states, values, and motivations; interpersonal, such as social comparison and social norms; and external, such as rewards and punishment. an early model of proenvironmental behavior, the knowledge deficit model,13assumed a causal progression from environmental knowledge to environmental concern to proenvironmental behavior, but it has now been largely discredited. research shows an important gap between proenvironmental attitudes and proenvironmental behavior,14-16and more recently several suggestions17and theoretical frameworks have been advanced to explain this weak association. that many barriers may separate intention from action has also been recently documented.18
How the change will be influenced?
these changes will be influenced by both supply-side changes in natural resource use as well as market-led demand changes. given the complexity of livestock (and in most cases crop-livestock) systems, a mix of technological, policy and institutional innovations will be required
How technology improvements be linked?
on the technology side, improvements will be linked to a combination of feed and nutrition, genetics and breeding, health and environmental management options, with different combinations appropriate to different systems
Where the  impacts of climate change occur?
impacts of climate change on livestock and livestock systems, and then discuss some priority livestock development issues linked to climate change that strike us as important
for these demand-led and changing livestock systems, the focus of research that can benefit the poor needs to attend to what is changing. these changes will be influenced by both supply-side changes in natural resource use as well as market-led demand changes. given the complexity of livestock (and in most cases crop-livestock) systems, a mix of technological, policy and institutional innovations will be required. on the technology side, improvements will be linked to a combination of feed and nutrition, genetics and breeding, health and environmental management options, with different combinations appropriate to different systems. in this paper, we outline some of the likely impacts of climate change on livestock and livestock systems, and then discuss some priority livestock development issues linked to climate change that strike us as important.
In the JEV rural domestic cycle, what animals may be infected?
in the jev rural domestic cycle, cattle, chicken, dogs, ducks, goats, horses, and pigs may be infected, but only a few of them are efficient virus amplifiers this domestic cycle occurs mainly within rural landscapes, with pigs acting as the primary domestic amplifying host. some other domestic mammals (cattle, dogs, goats) also display high seroprevalence rates, as pigs do; however, pigs replicate the virus quickly and have the highest viraemia [3,54
Why are pigs the main component of the domestic cycle in particular?
due to intensive pig farming in east and southeast asia (http://faostat3.fao.org/), pigs are the main component of the domestic cycle in particular, the industrialization of pig farming, which has broadly developed for several decades in many countries (china, myanmar, thailand, vietnam) has enhanced the amplification of the jev within dense pig herds, and thus contributed to increase the risk of jev transmission
What is the main risk factor for human infection?
therefore, the high proximity between humans and livestock became the main risk factor for human infection [6,55]. i
in the jev rural domestic cycle, cattle, chicken, dogs, ducks, goats, horses, and pigs may be infected, but only a few of them are efficient virus amplifiers this domestic cycle occurs mainly within rural landscapes, with pigs acting as the primary domestic amplifying host. some other domestic mammals (cattle, dogs, goats) also display high seroprevalence rates, as pigs do; however, pigs replicate the virus quickly and have the highest viraemia [3,54]. due to intensive pig farming in east and southeast asia (http://faostat3.fao.org/), pigs are the main component of the domestic cycle in particular, the industrialization of pig farming, which has broadly developed for several decades in many countries (china, myanmar, thailand, vietnam) has enhanced the amplification of the jev within dense pig herds, and thus contributed to increase the risk of jev transmission. therefore, the high proximity between humans and livestock became the main risk factor for human infection [6,55]. interaction between domestic host and pathogen depends on several host genetic, physiologic, and agricultural factors. first, for many diseases, resistance (defined as the ability to resist infection or moderate pathogen lifecycle) and tolerance (defined as an asymptomatic infection) in livestock have a genetic component, including breeds' genetic traits ([56,57]; examples given by gibson ). while resistance to infection limits the circulation and maintenance of pathogens in a population, tolerance on the contrary does not limit the virus transmission the replacement of indigenous breeds by exotic ones (landrace, large white, or duroc) might potentially have changed the susceptibility to jev infection in domestic pigs. however, data on susceptibility or differences in the ability to amplify jev between exotic imported or indigenous pig breeds are lacking. second, variations in the attractiveness of pig hosts between farms depends on physiological and agricultural factors (e.g., sows are more often bitten than piglets, as are encaged pigs) [59,60]. third, the
What is the reality of a changing climate?
the demand for reliable and accurate information on expected trends in temperature, precipitation, and other variables is continuously growing. stakeholders and decision makers in politics, economics, and other societal entities ask for exact numbers on the climate conditions to be expected at specific locations by the middle or end of this century
What is the future of anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols?
this demand is contrasted by the cascade of uncertainties that are still inherent in any projection of future climate, ranging from uncertainties in future anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols (''emission uncertainties''), to uncertainties in physical process understanding and model formulation [''model uncertainties;'' e.g., murphy et al. (2004); stainforth et al. (2007)], and to uncertainties arising from natural fluctuations [''initial condition uncertainty;'' e.g., lucas-picher et al. (2008
What is typically circumvented by explicitly conditioning climate projections?
the quantification of emission uncertainties is typically circumvented by explicitly conditioning climate projections on a range of well-defined emission scenarios (e.g., nakicenovic and swart 2000). initial condition uncertainty is often considered negligible on longer time scales but can, in principle, be sampled by ensemble approaches, as is commonly the case in weather and seasonal forecasting (e.g., buizza 1997; kalnay 2003
given the reality of a changing climate, the demand for reliable and accurate information on expected trends in temperature, precipitation, and other variables is continuously growing. stakeholders and decision makers in politics, economics, and other societal entities ask for exact numbers on the climate conditions to be expected at specific locations by the middle or end of this century. this demand is contrasted by the cascade of uncertainties that are still inherent in any projection of future climate, ranging from uncertainties in future anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols (''emission uncertainties''), to uncertainties in physical process understanding and model formulation [''model uncertainties;'' e.g., murphy et al. (2004); stainforth et al. (2007)], and to uncertainties arising from natural fluctuations [''initial condition uncertainty;'' e.g., lucas-picher et al. (2008)]. in practice, the quantification of emission uncertainties is typically circumvented by explicitly conditioning climate projections on a range of well-defined emission scenarios (e.g., nakicenovic and swart 2000). initial condition uncertainty is often considered negligible on longer time scales but can, in principle, be sampled by ensemble approaches, as is commonly the case in weather and seasonal forecasting (e.g., buizza 1997; kalnay 2003). a pragmatic and well-accepted approach to addressing model uncertainty is given by the concept of multimodel combination (e.g., tebaldi and knutti 2007), which is the focus of this paper.
What is the high rainfall associated with?
in that study, high rainfall was associated with significant increases in diarrhoea in the same month but decreased in the following month suggesting that initially high rainfall flushes faecal contaminants from pastures and dwellings into water supplies, but continued rain leads to a subsequent improvement in water quality
What is reported by the US study?
waterborne disease outbreaks were preceded by heavy rainfall within a 2-month lag
What was found in this study?
this study found that the river level explained nearly all the associations between high rainfall and the incidence of diarrhoea, suggesting that factors associated with the river level are on the causal pathway between high rainfall and diarrhoea
in that study, high rainfall was associated with significant increases in diarrhoea in the same month but decreased in the following month suggesting that initially high rainfall flushes faecal contaminants from pastures and dwellings into water supplies, but continued rain leads to a subsequent improvement in water quality. in the present study, however, no consistent protective effect of high rainfall was observed in any lag periods by detailed analysis of lag structure. the current study is also broadly in accordance with a us study reporting that waterborne disease outbreaks were preceded by heavy rainfall within a 2-month lag.14however, these studies were conducted in regions which are climatologically and geographically very different from dhaka, and careful interpretation is needed. causative agents of diarrhoea are also likely to be different in dhaka as compared with these regions. this study found that the river level explained nearly all the associations between high rainfall and the incidence of diarrhoea, suggesting that factors associated with the river level are on the causal pathway between high rainfall and diarrhoea. another study in dhaka indicated adverse effects of flood on the number of non-cholera diarrhoea cases that was higher for tube well users, those using distant water sources and unsanitary toilet users as compared with tap-water users, those using a close water source and sanitary toilet practices (unpublished data). these findings suggest that heavy rains leading to excessive flooding break down water and sanitation systems and promote the intake of contaminated drinking water, although this study did not find any evidence for the modification of the rainfall effect by water source. investigations on detailed pathways of the rainfall-diarrhoea relationship, particularly the role of drinking water quality are warranted. the low rainfall effect found in this study was also broadly consistent with results of the time-series study in fiji, which found that low rainfall was significantly associated with increases in diarrhoea in the same month and the following month.13a possible explanation is the lack of dilution of sewage effluent and increased contamination of pond and lake water scattered amongst the communities in dhaka and water
How the basal temperature is assumed to be?
the basal temperature is assumed to be the freezing point of seawater
How the surface temperature is determined?
the surface temperature is determined by the planetary and surface energy balance
What is the meaning of Fb in the ice thickness formula?
for uniform thermal conductivity, the ice thickness is k t fb, where fb is the basal flux
how thick is the sea ice in a snowball state? the simplest calculation balances the geothermal heat flux delivered to the base of the ice against heat diffusion through the ice. the ice thickness takes on a value that is just enough to let the required amount of heat through, as sketched in figure 8 the basal temperature is assumed to be the freezing point of seawater, and the surface temperature is determined by the planetary and surface energy balance. for uniform thermal conductivity, the ice thickness is k t fb, where fb is the basal flux, k is the thermal conductivity, and  t is the
What are the different ways in which climate change is expressed?
through changes in temperature or precipitation, through changes in seasonality or through changes in the magnitude and frequency of extreme events
What are the inherent variabilities that the natural climate 21 21 system possesses?
indeed given also that the natural climate 21 21 system possesses inherent variability on different time-scales, e.g. associated with modes of variability such as the nao (north atlantic oscillation
What is not yet being detected either by observational records or by lake sediments?
it is perhaps not surprising that unambiguous impacts of anthropogenic climate change are not yet being detected either by observational records or by lake sediments
a further complication is the different ways in which climate change is expressed, for example through changes in temperature or precipitation, through changes in seasonality or through changes in the magnitude and frequency of extreme events. indeed given also that the natural climate 21 21 system possesses inherent variability on different time-scales, e.g. associated with modes of variability such as the nao (north atlantic oscillation), it is perhaps not surprising that unambiguous impacts of anthropogenic climate change are not yet being detected either by observational records or by lake sediments. nevertheless, it is not too soon to examine long-term records and lake sediment records for evidence of climate change, related to both natural climate variability and to anthropogenically forced climate change.
Can simulation studies be used as a basis for guiding forest management?
simulation studies that operate with overly simplistic assumptions should not be used as a basis for guiding forest management decision making
What are the role of scientists?
therefore scientists have an important role in communicating knowledge about climate change impacts and uncertainties to practitioners and policy makers
What things regional impact studies need to analyse?
regional impact studies therefore need to analyse multiple climate scenarios to explore a broad range of possible developments
when interpreting climate scenario projections, more than one average climate scenario needs to be studied. impact assessments have to consider appropriate climate variables that are critical for tree growth and survival. uncertainties around climate change impacts in european forests appear to be particularly large in areas where the most adverse effects are likely (e.g. in the mediterranean). this underlines that uncertainty increases with the severity of the change we are projecting for our climate knutti and sedlacek, 2013 ). simulation studies that operate with overly simplistic assumptions should not be used as a basis for guiding forest management decision making. therefore scientists have an important role in communicating knowledge about climate change impacts and uncertainties to practitioners and policy makers. based on this synthesis, planning adaptation strategies seems to be a complex and challenging task, as gradual changes and the more catastrophic impacts of extreme events require different activities. an anticipated long-term change in suitability of a tree species may require change to a more droughtand heat adapted species. however, in the transition phase, extremes may occur in both directions (hot and cold), which make a pro-active introduction of e.g. mediterranean oaks in central europe on larger areas impossible. adapting to an expected decrease of productivity by introducing exotic species with higher productivity has been successfully conducted with douglas fi r as replacement for norway spruce in some parts of europe, but we need additional experiences with other species also under unfavourable site conditions. adapting forests to extreme events is particularly dif fi cult where drought is concerned, as the increasing length of dry periods in the future climate may lead to conditions in parts of europe where almost no tree species will be able to survive. reducing tree density in arid areas to enhance water availability for the remaining trees may be ef fi cient, but it is a costly measure in a region where the economic output of forestry is generally low. adapting forests to extreme storm events is e outside great britain and ireland with already existing particular storm adapted management strategies e an exception, and requires measures such as limiting tree height that are unpopular and against the dominating " close-to-nature " forestry with long rotation periods in central europe. despite intensive research over two decades, we cannot accurately forecast emissions and what the climate in europe will be like later this century. it is unlikely that this situation will change anytime soon. regional impact studies therefore need to analyse multiple climate scenarios to explore a broad range of possible developments. impact assessments contain simpli fi cations, and with our improving system understanding it is important to interpret them adequately. growth decline and mortality are especially triggered by extreme events and it is crucial to consider how disturbance impacts could alter the results derived from simple models that lack a proper representation of extreme events and disturbances. the challenge for forest management is how to cope with the observed and modelled trends and their associated uncertainties in adaptive forest management. strategies that enhance ecosystem resilience are recommended, as are strategies which increase the fl exibility of making future management changes, as required by realized climate change trends. acknowledgements the study was supported by the european community's seventh framework programme under the project motive " models for adaptive forest management " ), grant agreement 226544. appendix a. supplementary material supplementary material related to this article can be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2014.07.030 references
what is presented in this paper?
we present first the four main interpretative repertoires women drew upon to make sense of singleness
what is argued in this?
we will go on to argue that these highly polarized and indeed inconsistent repertoires present single women with a problematic ideological package which has challenging consequences for their personal identity work
explain about singleness?
singleness as personal deficit this repertoire usually emerged in women's descriptions of single women encountered when a child, impressions formed in early life, or in imagining the views of others
we present first the four main interpretative repertoires women drew upon to make sense of singleness.  singleness as personal deficit  singleness as social exclusion  singleness as independence and choice  singleness as self-actualization and achievement. the first two of these repertoires were strongly denigrated in the talk of those interviewed, and the second two strongly idealized. we will go on to argue that these highly polarized and indeed inconsistent repertoires present single women with a problematic ideological package which has challenging consequences for their personal identity work. singleness as personal deficit this repertoire usually emerged in women's descriptions of single women encountered when a child, impressions formed in early life, or in imagining the views of others. extract 1i
What does the plot show?
this plot shows estimates of the effect of randomly assigned agreement features on the level of support for an agreement
What are the estimates based on?
estimates are based on the regression of agreement rating on dummy variables for values of the agreement dimensions with standard errors clustered by respondent
How was Agreement Rating measured?
agreement rating was measured by the following question: "if you could vote on each of these agreements in a referendum, how likely is it that you would vote in favor or against each of the agreements? please give your answer on the following scale from definitely against (1) to definitely in favor (10
fig. s5 effect of agreement dimensions on public support for global climate change cooperation in france, germany, the united kingdom, and the united states using agreement ratings. this plot shows estimates of the effect of randomly assigned agreement features on the level of support for an agreement. estimates are based on the regression of agreement rating on dummy variables for values of the agreement dimensions with standard errors clustered by respondent. agreement rating was measured by the following question: "if you could vote on each of these agreements in a referendum, how likely is it that you would vote in favor or against each of the agreements? please give your answer on the following scale from definitely against (1) to definitely in favor (10)." the bars indicate 95% confidence intervals and the points without bars indicate the reference category for a given agreement dimension.
Who developed a model applicable to financial markets as well as climate change?
martin weitzman has developed a model applicable to financial markets as well as climate change
What is considered to be a precautionary decision that people make all the time?
the purchase of insurance, a precautionary decision that people make all the time
Why do few homeowners go without fire insurance?
the most likely number of house fires that you will experience next year, or even in your lifetime, is zero
martin weitzman has developed a model applicable to financial markets as well as climate change. people learn about the world through repeated experiences, but if the relevant structure of the world is changing rapidly or greatly enough, only the most recent experiences can be relied on, and everyone is effectively engaged in bayesian estimation from a finite sample. in this circumstance, the best available estimate of the true probability distribution has fat tails. because people are riskaverse, the attempt to avoid the disturbing possibility of very large losses dominates policy decisions. the result, weitzman argues, is that fine-tuning the estimates of the most likely level of climate damages is irrelevant; what matters is how bad and how likely the worst extremes of the possible outcomes are. there is little doubt that the 95th percentile, or 98th percentile, of possible adverse climate outcomes over the next century (to pick two arbitrary points out in the tail of the distribution) would look like the devastation of the planet in a science-fiction dystopia, not like a matter for carefully weighing costs and benefits. intuitively, this is the same logic that motivates the purchase of insurance, a precautionary decision that people make all the time. the most likely number of house fires that you will experience next year, or even in your lifetime, is zero. very few homeowners find this a compelling reason to go without fire insurance. similarly, healthy young adults often buy life insurance to protect their children's future in the worst possible case. residential fires, and deaths of healthy young adults, have annual probabilities measured in the tenths of 1%. in other words, people routinely insure themselves against personal catastrophes that are much less likely than worst-case climate catastrophes for the planet.8
What are the challenges faced due to climate change?
climate change is an environmental, social and economic challenge on a global scale
What human activities contribute to climate change?
climate change can be exacerbated by human induced actions such as: the widespread use of land, the broad scale deforestation, the major technological and socioeconomic shifts with reduced reliance on organic fuel, and the accelerated uptake of fossil fuels
What are the impact and consequences of climate change on the nigerian environment?
the most devastating adverse impacts of climate change in nigeria and other subtropical countries includes frequent drought, increased environmental damage, increased infestation of crop by pests and *corresponding author. abajebest@yahoo.com diseases, depletion of household assets, increased rural urban migration, increased biodiversity loss, depletion of wildlife and other natural resource base, changes in the vegetation type, decline in forest resources, decline in soil conditions (soil moisture and nutrients), increased health risks and the spread of infectious diseases, changing livelihood systems, etc
department of geography, university of abuja, gwagwalada, abuja, nigeria. 2department of geography, kaduna state college of education, gidan-waya, nigeria. accepted 23rd october, 2008 this study examines the way indigenous people in jema'a local government area of kaduna state perceive climate change and their adaptation strategies to climate change. the paper also asks indigenous people of the impacts of climate change on their various activities and any perceive hindrance to its adaptation. a total of 225 questionnaires were administered in five settlements within the study area, although only 200 of these questionnaires were used for the purpose of analysis. findings revealed that indigenous people in the study area perceived that the environment, climate in particular, has been changing over the years due to diverse human activities. findings also revealed that the threat of climate change is more on health, food supply, biodiversity lost and fuelwood availability than on businesses and instigating of disaster; and it is the poor, who depend heavily on the natural resources that are mostly affected by incidence of climate change. in adapting to climate change indigenous people cultivate different/varieties of crops which are tolerant to climate change and shortening of growing season as adaptation strategies. result further revealed that lack of improve seeds, lack of assess to water for irrigation, lack of current knowledge of modern adaptation strategies, lack of capital, lack of awareness and knowledge of climate change scenarios are the hindering factors to the adoption of modern techniques of combating climate changes in the area. keywords: indigenous people's, perception, climate change, adaptation strategies, jema'a. climate change is an environmental, social and economic challenge on a global scale (scholze et al., 2006; mendelsohn et al., 2006). climate change can be exacerbated by human induced actions such as: the widespread use of land, the broad scale deforestation, the major technological and socioeconomic shifts with reduced reliance on organic fuel, and the accelerated uptake of fossil fuels (millennium ecosystem assessment, 2005). the most devastating adverse impacts of climate change in nigeria and other subtropical countries includes frequent drought, increased environmental damage, increased infestation of crop by pests and *corresponding author. abajebest@yahoo.com diseases, depletion of household assets, increased rural urban migration, increased biodiversity loss, depletion of wildlife and other natural resource base, changes in the vegetation type, decline in forest resources, decline in soil conditions (soil moisture and nutrients), increased health risks and the spread of infectious diseases, changing livelihood systems, etc (reilly, 1999; abaje and giwa, 2007). indigenous peoples who are vital and active parts of many ecosystems may help to enhance the resilience of these ecosystems. their livelihoods depend on natural resources that are directly affected by climate change, and they often inhabit economically and politically marginal areas in diverse, but fragile ecosystems. in addition, they interpret and react to climate change impacts in creative ways, drawing on traditional knowledge as well as new technologies to find solutions,
What Simtop does in two main ways?
a simple topmodel-based runoff scheme is developed for use in the ncar clm. simtop simplifies topmodel-based runoff scheme in two main ways
What is a single coefficient?
simtop is a product of an exponential function of the water table depth and a single coefficient for maximum subsurface runoff
a simple topmodel-based runoff scheme is developed for use in the ncar clm. simtop simplifies topmodel-based runoff scheme in two main ways. first, subsurface runoff in simtop is a product of an exponential function of the water table depth and a single coefficient for maximum subsurface runoff. this coefficient is used in place of a complex product of four coefficients: a ksat(0), 1/ f and e lm, all of which are difficult to define on global scales. use of a single maximum subsurface runoff coefficient also lessens the impact of the uncertainties inherent in computing the topographic index using coarse-resolution
what is the advantage of land-cover changes driven by climate change ?
it has the advantage of being transparent and useful for a large number of species
what does environmental change leads to?
environmental change occurring below the spatial resolution of this analysis (majority area of a 0.5deg grid cell, i.e., ~1,540 km2 near the equator, ~990 km2 at 50deg latitude) may lead to further habitat and range loss and thus to threats not evaluated here
does all parts of a grid cell experience land cover change?
not all parts of a grid cell may experience the land-cover change projected for its majority, potentially overestimating losses
our approach allows a global and integrated perspective of the effects of land-cover changes driven by climate change and the effects of land-use change on biodiversity. it has the advantage of being transparent and useful for a large number of species. additionally, it is not fraught by the data limitations and possible methodological pitfalls that are associated with the attempt to quantify species' exact environmental niche and potential for adaptation. some recent predictions of climate-related extinctions have relied on developing climatic correlates of current species distributions and evaluating potential shifts in these "bioclimatic envelopes" to estimate range loss 15 16 ]. our method assumes core habitat associations and evaluates the proportion of a species' range that will be transformed to unsuitable habitat by climate change. it uses well substantiated characterizations of species' persistent habitat requirements. species range shifts in response to changing climate will likely lower the estimated proportional range loss attributed to it. the alleviating effect regarding the impact of land-use change is more equivocal and likely smaller, given that the direction and magnitude of shifts are uncertain and land-use change is mostly subtropical and tropical (where on the whole, effects of climate change are weaker). environmental change occurring below the spatial resolution of this analysis (majority area of a 0.5deg grid cell, i.e., ~1,540 km2 near the equator, ~990 km2 at 50deg latitude) may lead to further habitat and range loss and thus to threats not evaluated here. conversely, not all parts of a grid cell may experience the land-cover change projected for its majority, potentially overestimating losses. nonuniform distribution of abundances within species ranges mean that range contraction does not straightforwardly translate into population loss 46 ]. finally, more subtle changes in habitat type too fine for the categorization offered in the ma scenarios may lead to additional range losses, while some versatile species may be unaffected by changes of land-cover types. we acknowledge that these issues require further detailed analyses at regional and single species levels. however, there is no reason to assume that they would introduce a systematic bias into our analyses.
What are the characteristics of Dryzek's usual approach?
he searches for the most fundamental components of discourses, such as the relationship between man and nature
For what type of discourse is Dryzek's usual apporach well suited?
this seems most appropriate for the broad platform of universal environmental discourses that he 8 addresses
How does this new approach differ from Dryzek's usual approach and what topics are of interest in this approach?
consequently the discourse components identified are less generalised. in particular, the understanding of natural relationships slightly differs: rather than just the relationships that are assumed normal between different entities, it is taken to also include ideas about what the effect of climate change will be, and what solutions will work
it should be noted, however, that the approach adopted departs somewhat from that of dryzek's analyses. he searches for the most fundamental components of discourses, such as the relationship between man and nature. this seems most appropriate for the broad platform of universal environmental discourses that he 8 addresses. here, the analysis is of a much more specific issue; consequently the discourse components identified are less generalised. in particular, the understanding of natural relationships slightly differs: rather than just the relationships that are assumed normal between different entities, it is taken to also include ideas about what the effect of climate change will be, and what solutions will work.
Where are the results of the single-variate Poisson regressions are summarized?
results of the single-variate poisson regressions are summarized in fig. 10
What was showed by clusters 1 and 2?
annual rates of membership in clusters 1 and 2 both show increases with increasing amm, but the relationships are somewhat weak (confidence less than 95
What was exhibit by clusters 3 and 4?
cluster 3 and 4 storm rates also exhibit increases with increasing amm, but here the relationships are much more substantial and highly significant, as evidenced by the p values of the regressions
results of the single-variate poisson regressions are summarized in fig. 10. annual rates of membership in clusters 1 and 2 both show increases with increasing amm, but the relationships are somewhat weak (confidence less than 95%). cluster 3 and 4 storm rates also exhibit increases with increasing amm, but here the relationships are much more substantial and highly significant, as evidenced by the p values of the regressions. when the seasonal mean (june-november) of standardized monthly amm anomalies vary between 6 two standard deviations, the expected annual rates of cluster 3 and 4 storms both increase by a factor of about 6.
Who made the ERA40 and operational analyses available via a member state special project?
ecmwf
Who made the JRA25 data available?
jma and central research institute of electric power industry (criepi
Who made his condor pool available for the computation?
dr ian bland
the authors would like to thank ecmwf for making the era40 and operational analyses available via a member state special project and the jma and central research institute of electric power industry (criepi) for making the jra25 data available. also thanks to dr ian bland for making his condor pool available to us for the computation. the echam5 integration was financed in part by the german ministry for education and research (bmbf) under the deklim project and performed on the nec sx-6 supercomputer installed at the german climate computing centre (dkrz) in hamburg. we would also like to thank the anonymous reviewers for their suggestions in improving the manuscript.
Which objective will the first paper address?
in this first paper, part 1, we address the first objective
What model will be used as a means to interpolate the sparse and geographically biased observations, and how will it be used?
as a means to interpolate the sparse and geographically biased observations, we use a simple groundwater model to derive an equilibrium water table that reflects the long-term balance between the climate and the geology
What will Part 2 discuss?
in part 2 miguez-macho et al. 2007], we discuss the formulations that link the groundwater with soil and river flow, followed by parameterization and validation
our second objective is to implement the groundwater processes in an existing climate model and use it as a tool to address a number of science questions regarding the linked evolution of soil moisture, water table, and river flow at continental scales. we ask the following questions: 1. will including the water table dynamics in climate simulations impact the soil moisture? will it introduce new spatial structures into the latter, such as enhanced spatial organization since the water table reflects the structured topography and stream systems? 2. will it introduce new temporal structures into the soil moisture? will the long residence times of the groundwater reservoir anchor greater soil moisture memory? our work will be reported in two companion papers. in this first paper, part 1, we address the first objective. as a means to interpolate the sparse and geographically biased observations, we use a simple groundwater model to derive an equilibrium water table that reflects the long-term balance between the climate and the geology. in part 2 miguez-macho et al. 2007], we discuss the formulations that link the groundwater with soil and river flow, followed by parameterization and validation. then we present the simulated soil moisture fields in north america, with and without water table dynamics, hence addressing the second objective. we stress that our work is exploratory and our findings are preliminary. as will be seen later, much of the needed hydrologic data are lacking. for example, to calculate groundwater flow, the hydraulic conductivity k is needed at greater depth, but it is yet to be compiled for large regions. it is our hope that the results presented here, based on less-than-desirable data, will help underscore the relevance of groundwater processes in understanding the terrestrial water cycle and the need for extending our hydrologic database to greater depths into the earth's crust.
What is being measured in this paragraph?
altitude and latitude corrections can be estimated in two different ways
What are the two ways in which the corrections can be estimated?
altitude and latitude corrections can be estimated in two different ways, either by directly regressing d13c vs. map, altitude, and latitude, as described in the text, or by assuming altitude and latitude coefficients, averaging over small map ranges (table s1), and iteratively solving for best-fit coefficients that maximize r2or f in regressions of the averaged data
Do the two different methods lead to different results?
predictions are not substantially different from the regressions presented in the text
altitude and latitude corrections can be estimated in two different ways, either by directly regressing d13c vs. map, altitude, and latitude, as described in the text, or by assuming altitude and latitude coefficients, averaging over small map ranges (table s1), and iteratively solving for best-fit coefficients that maximize r2or f in regressions of the averaged data. for a regression of d13c vs. log10d map th 300 th the latter approach results in high r2(0.96), the same altitude coefficient (1.9e-4), and a larger latitude coefficient (0.028). the same method may be used to regress map as any function of d13c, including logarithmic or polynomial. again, high r2results (0.96), but predictions are not substantially different from the regressions presented in the text. other supporting information files dataset s1 (xls)
Precipitation and temperature are likely to vary in their magnitude of influence among what?
species and across sites
For five of the 11 species Whats converging?
fox sparrow, hermit thrush, bewick's wren, bushtit, and house finch
Modern theory concurs what?
suggesting that different biotic and abiotic factors can switch from nonlimiting to range limiting quite rapidly
precipitation and temperature are likely to vary in their magnitude of influence among species and across sites. generally, ranges of low-elevation species may be more limited by biotic factors (e.g., species interactions), whereas ranges of high-elevation species may be more limited by abiotic factors (brown et al. 1996). however, using different inferential methods, tingley et al. (2009) found that low-elevation birds in the sierra nevada were more likely to shift their occurrence in climate space toward more favorable precipitation conditions, whereas high-elevation species were more likely to shift toward favorable temperature conditions. consistent with this pattern, using our geographically expanded and more species-rich data set we found that lower limits had directional shifts best described by precipitation, whereas upper limits had directional shifts best described by temperature. our results also highlight the importance of local climatic contexts in creating variability in measured elevational shifts. of the 53 species that we tested for range shifts in all three regions, 11 species shifted range boundaries in opposing directions across two regions. this variation may be explained by species responding to site-specific climate change in each region. for instance, in the southern sierra, which is the warmest and the driest region (fig. 1b), precipitation explained a greater proportion of range limit movements than temperature (table s1). for five of the 11 species (fox sparrow, hermit thrush, bewick's wren, bushtit, and house finch), diverging directional response is explicitly predicted by precipitation, and it is predicted for two additional species (warbling vireo and whitebreasted nuthatch) by temperature (table s1). grinnell (1917), posited that different factors limit a species' distribution across its geographic range. modern theory concurs, suggesting that different biotic and abiotic factors can switch from nonlimiting to range limiting quite rapidly, with only small changes in the balance of the factors (gaston, 2009). given differing climatic regimes in our three regions and contrasting climate histories over the last century, our results support these theoretical expectations.
Where can you find more information about the climate impacts?
he foremost advantages of statistical approaches to analyzing climate impacts on agriculture (see also table 1) are that they the data requirements are much lighter
What year was this article based on?
lobell (2010) find that maize is most severely affected and millet the least affected by climate change
How do they approach to embed yield shocks?
the greatest limitation of these studies focusing on yield changes is the absence of adaptation responses. one approach is to embed these yield "shocks" in an economic model which then allows for adaptation in the context of profit maximizing responses on the part of representative farmers (e.g., hbl 2009). however, it would be attractive to obtain estimates of adaptation alongside the climate impact analysis. this is leads us to the so-called ricardian, or hedonic, analysis of climate change
lobell (2010) find that maize is most severely affected and millet the least affected by climate change. nearly all countries in the region experience yield losses in the expected scenario, with overall losses for cereals and oilseeds in the range of 10%; in the worst case outcome (5% probability), yield losses for most cereals and oilseeds in southern africa exceed 50%. the foremost advantages of statistical approaches to analyzing climate impacts on agriculture (see also table 1) are that they the data requirements are much lighter, they can be applied at a national or global spatial resolution, measures of goodness of fit can provide confidence that the model is faithfully capturing historical changes, and out-of-sample prediction can test the model's validity. the greatest limitation of these studies focusing on yield changes is the absence of adaptation responses. one approach is to embed these yield "shocks" in an economic model which then allows for adaptation in the context of profit maximizing responses on the part of representative farmers (e.g., hbl 2009). however, it would be attractive to obtain estimates of adaptation alongside the climate impact analysis. this is leads us to the so-called ricardian, or hedonic, analysis of climate change. hedonic approaches all the yield based studies of agricultural response to climate change assume that the crops continue to be grown in the same locations, thereby failing to account for potential adjustments in the mix of agricultural activities at any given location. the hedonic approach, popularly known as the "ricardian" approach, and spearheaded by mendelsohn, nordhaus and shaw (1994), recognizes that farmers will vary the mix of activities to choose the one yielding the highest return on any given parcel of land. as a consequence, they focus on the impact of climate on land valuesii, not yields. by associating climatic variation in a cross-section of data with
What was the climate trend during 1998?
with 1998 having a strong el nino, and consequently a very warm year globally, trends since 1998 have shown little warming or cooling, a fact which has been used by some to claim that global warming has stopped or slowed down
What was the demonstration on climate change according to Easterling and Wehner3and Knight et al.?
as demonstrated in papers by easterling and wehner3and by knight et al.,4decade long trends with little warming or cooling are to be expected under a sustained long-term warming trend, as a result of multidecadal scale internal variability
with 1998 having a strong el nino, and consequently a very warm year globally, trends since 1998 have shown little warming or cooling, a fact which has been used by some to claim that global warming has stopped or slowed down. however, as demonstrated in papers by easterling and wehner3and by knight et al.,4decade long trends with little warming or cooling are to be expected under a sustained long-term warming trend, as a result of multidecadal scale internal variability. in addition, zorita et al.5have shown that the observed recent clustering of warm record-breaking global temperatures is very unlikely to have occurred by chance in a stationary climate. further refinement of our understanding of the causes of decadal variability would benefit from tracking the changes of energy within the climate system6
Where is the study taking place?
in large panels of districts and cities in sub-saharan africa
What percentage of cities studied are/have manufacturing centers?
in regions where cities are likely to be manufacturing centers (25% of our sample
What are some barriers to climate change response in Africa?
lack of structural transformation in africa inhibits a better response to climate change
this paper documents strong but differentiated links between climate and urbanization in large panels of districts and cities in sub-saharan africa, which has dried substantially in the past fifty years. the key dimension of heterogeneity is whether cities are likely to have manufacturing for export outside their regions, as opposed to being exclusively market towns providing local services to agricultural hinterlands. in regions where cities are likely to be manufacturing centers (25% of our sample), drier conditions increase urbanization and total urban incomes. there, urban migration provides an "escape" from negative agricultural moisture shocks. however, in the remaining market towns (75% of our sample), cities just service agriculture. reduced farm incomes from negative shocks reduce demand for urban services and derived demand for urban labor. there, drying has little impact on urbanization or total urban incomes. lack of structural transformation in africa inhibits a better response to climate change. keywords: africa, urbanization, climate change jel codes: o10, o55, q54, r12
Where biome distribution  is determined?
determining biome distribution in south africa has long been debated
Who labelled veld types ?
acocks labelled veld types that he thought were 'fire climax' as 'false'. he hypothesised that their current extent was due to extensive forest clearance by iron age farmers
Discuss about recent evidence?
we discuss recent evidence that c4 grasslands first appeared between 6 and 8m years bp, long before the appearance of modern humans. however these grassy ecosystems are among the most recently developed biomes on the planet. we briefly discuss the importance of fire in promoting their spread in the late tertiary
department animal and plant sciences, university of sheffield, sheffield, uk corresponding author, e-mail: bond@botzoo.uct.ac.za received 21 june 2002, accepted in revised form 2 october 2002 the role of fire in determining biome distribution in south africa has long been debated. acocks labelled veld types that he thought were 'fire climax' as 'false'. he hypothesised that their current extent was due to extensive forest clearance by iron age farmers. we tested the relative importance of fire and climate in determining ecosystem characteristics by simulating potential vegetation of south africa with and without fire using a dynamic global vegetation model (dgvm). the simulations suggest that most of the eastern half of the country could support much higher stem biomass without fire and that the vegetation would be dominated by trees instead of grasses. fynbos regions in mesic winter rainfall areas would also become tree dominated. we collated results of long term fire exclusion studies to further test the relative importance of fire and climate. these show that grassy ecosystems with rainfall >650mm tend towards fire-sensitive forests with fire excluded. areas below 650mm showed changes in tree density and size but no trend of changing composition to forest. we discuss recent evidence that c4 grasslands first appeared between 6 and 8m years bp, long before the appearance of modern humans. however these grassy ecosystems are among the most recently developed biomes on the planet. we briefly discuss the importance of fire in promoting their spread in the late tertiary.
What figure 15 shows
the track density and mean intensity for this period
Where the most negligible changes occur in distribution of storm
the most negligible changes in the distribution of storms occurs in the indian ocean region and india
What figure 16 shows
the number of storms as a function of the maximum intensity for the whole tropics (35degn, 0deg) for 20c
the changes in the tropical storm tracks are pronounced and occur in all tropical regions, although we here restrict the presentation to the most active period of the nh from may through october. figure 15 shows the track density and mean intensity for this period. this shows that there is a general reduction in activity in the atlantic storm track as well as a general reduction in the amplitude of the storms, in particular in the main development region (mdr) for tropical cyclones. in the eastern pacific there is a marked equatorward translation of the storm track with a general enhancement extending well into the central pacific. in the central pacific there is also a reduction in the number of storms with an equatorward translation. there is also a large change in the intensity of systems over western africa. perhaps the most negligible changes in the distribution of storms occurs in the indian ocean region and india, though the density of storms is already small in both 20c and 21c compared with the atlantic and pacific. however, there is some indication of an enhancement of the intensities of the monsoon depressions in the monsoon trough over india. figure 16 shows the number of storms as a function of the maximum intensity for the whole tropics (35degn, 0deg) for 20c and 21c (fig. 16a), and for selected regions. there are only minor changes in the overall distribution of tropical storms except for a slight reduction in the storms of medium intensity for the whole tropics, and there are no changes in the number of extreme storms throughout the tropics. however, there are regional variations as indicated by the spatial statistics and in figs. 16b-d. the atlantic storms are reduced in number, in particular the stronger ones, while the storms in the eastern pacific are virtually unchanged though there is some indication of fewer extreme storms. in the western pacific there is little change. it is interesting to note that the change in sst by between 2deg and 3degc has not had any influence on the numbers and intensities of
Most models suggest what with regard to precipitation in summer vs winter over most of Canada?
most models suggest that there will be less precipitation during the summer months, but increased winter precipitation over most of canada
What recent events were testament to Canada's vulnerability?
recent losses from the 1998 ice storm and the 1996 saguenay river flood are testament to canada's vulnerability to such events see box 1
although the uncertainty associated with projecting future changes in precipitation is greater than for temperature, average annual precipitation is generally expected to increase and changes in precipitation patterns are likely (figure 5). for instance, heavy precipitation events are expected to become more frequent, and there are likely to be larger year-to-year variations in precipitation.(5)seasonal differences will also be important, as most models suggest that there will be less precipitation during the summer months, but increased winter precipitation over most of canada. seasonal changes in precipitation patterns are expected to be more important than changes in annual totals in terms of impacting human activities and ecosystems. the probability of extreme climate events will also change in the future. such changes would occur whether there is a shift in mean values (e.g., such as is projected for annual temperature), a change in climatic variability, or both (figure 6).(9)increases in the frequency of extreme climate events are one of the greatest concerns associated with climate change. such extreme events include heat waves, droughts, floods and storms. recent losses from the 1998 ice storm and the 1996 saguenay river flood are testament to canada's vulnerability to such events see box 1).
When did the Peruvian industrial fishing boom begin?
the peruvian industrial fishing boom began in the mid-1950s
Why did the Peruvian fishery collapse by 1972?
this collapse has traditionally been blamed on overfishing combined with the 1972-73 el nino
How much was the catch of the Peruvian fishing industry at its peak?
its catch increased to over 12 million metric tons (primarily anchovy) by 1972
fueled by the increased post-world war ii demand for fishmeal and the collapse of the california sardine fishery in the 1950s (which made boats and machinery cheaply available for purchase by peru), the peruvian industrial fishing boom began in the mid-1950s and lasted until the early 1970s. in the context of weak regulations and technological advances, its catch increased to over 12 million metric tons (primarily anchovy) by 1972, when there was a dramatic decline in the fishery. this collapse has traditionally been blamed on overfishing combined with the 1972-73 el nino. while both likely played significant roles, there is increasing acceptance of claims that the decline in catch began prior to this moderate el nino event and
In what way is climate research important?
climate research provides an important source of data for much of the research on security effects
According to the text, how many articles also cite projections from climate models?
only two of the articles (bernauer siegfried, 2012 and de stefano et al. 2012) cite projections from climate models as well, while devitt tol (2012) use economic projections from ipcc's special report on emission scenarios
What are the main challenges to climate models?
while our models of conflict are certainly imperfect, and the ability of social scientists to make predictions is limited (schneider, gleditsch carey, 2010; ward, greenhill bakke, 2010), current climate models and even data for the past few decades leave much to be desired in terms of forecasting accuracy and geographical precision
climate research provides an important source of data for much of the research on security effects. the majority of the articles in this issue make use of systematic data on levels and change of precipitation. most of them use empirical data for the past few decades and assess the empirical regularities that can be assumed to continue at least in the near future. only two of the articles (bernauer siegfried, 2012 and de stefano et al. 2012) cite projections from climate models as well, while devitt tol (2012) use economic projections from ipcc's special report on emission scenarios. while our models of conflict are certainly imperfect, and the ability of social scientists to make predictions is limited (schneider, gleditsch carey, 2010; ward, greenhill bakke, 2010), current climate models and even data for the past few decades leave much to be desired in terms of forecasting accuracy and geographical precision.
Has the composition of gases in the atmosphere always been the same?
the composition of gases in the atmosphere was not always as it is today or even as it has been in previous centuries
Who argued about the emergence of nature's life?
in 1926, vladimir vernadsky argued that the emergence of life from nature radically transformed the conditions that made emergence possible and illuminated how the biosphere was created
Where is life?
life exists only in the lower regions of the sky and upper regions of the soil and ocean
the composition of gases in the atmosphere was not always as it is today or even as it has been in previous centuries. in 1926, vladimir vernadsky argued that the emergence of life from nature radically transformed the conditions that made emergence possible and illuminated how the biosphere was created.45life - in interaction with the existing environment - created the atmosphere, as we know it. life exists only in the lower regions of the sky and upper regions of the soil and ocean. an interrelationship between living and nonliving materials within the biosphere produces a cycling of chemical elements. thus, the history of life and the biosphere is a story of coevolution.46
What is the adaptation process based upon?
local needs and national priorities
What is also is part of the development process and should not be isolated from it?
adaptation to climate change
What resulted in the slow emergence of the development perspective as previously noted?
the dominance of the convention perspective
the dominance of the convention perspective has resulted in the slow emergence of the development perspective as previously noted. now it is recognized that adaptation to climate change is also is part of the development process and should not be isolated from it. this is not in conflict with the spirit or the formal text of the convention, but with the way it has been interpreted and addressed for most of the decade since it was first signed at rio de janeiro. recent conferences of the parties to the convention (in particular delhi 2002 and milan 2003) have witnessed some efforts to break away from the strict interpretations of adaptation according to the convention perspective, and move towards some of the elements of a development perspective (or sustainable development and climate risk perspective) which has the following characteristics: it is concerned with present climate variability and extremes as well as longer-term changes in climate means. it accepts all sustainable development benefits no matter where they fall (not only the global ones). it makes no distinction about costs or "who pays". the costs of a project are the total costs (although there is room to negotiate shared cost arrangements between the gef - or the climate funds - and other sources of financing). it is vulnerabilityand poverty-driven, and adaptation options are assessed in those terms. the adaptation process is country-driven and is based upon local needs and national priorities.
What is current research providing?
research is providing increasingly more evidence that positive youth development is dependent on offering intentional programming
What is of critical importance?
the quality of relationships and social interactions that exist between and among youth and adults was identified in a national research council and the institute of medicine report on community programs and youth development as critical to fostering numerous social, academic, and psychological outcomes
What does Rhodes suggest?
rhodes (2004) suggests that "caring youth-staff relationships" may be the most important factor determining the success of youth programs
research is providing increasingly more evidence that positive youth development is dependent on offering intentional programming. participation alone does not result in growth and in fact may contribute to negative outcomes (ewing, ganooverway, branta, and seefeldt, 2002; mclaughlin, 2000). of particular importance are the characteristics of the settings in which programming occurs. the quality of relationships and social interactions that exist between and among youth and adults was identified in a national research council and the institute of medicine report on community programs and youth development as critical to fostering numerous social, academic, and psychological outcomes. effective programs incorporate supportive relationships wherein social interactions are characterized by warmth, closeness, caring, support, guidance, good communication, secure attachment and responsiveness (eccles and gootman, 2002). these qualities are quite diverse but collectively they capture the psychological climate fundamental to positive development. an umbrella term that captures the essence of the qualities is 'caring'. caring has been identified as an important feature in the contextual life of young people (noblit, 1993). rhodes (2004) suggests that "caring youth-staff relationships" may be the most important factor determining the success of youth programs. caring has also been identified as a key requisite in physical activity settings. hellison (2003) regards caring as fundamental to engaging students in physical activity. ennis (1999) suggests that establishing caring relationships are critical to "catch and hold the attention and interest of urban adolescents" to physical education (p. 165).
As per the Studies, what is the effect of ENSO on agriculture?
identification and prediction of the influences of seasonal-to-interannual climate phenomena, like the el ni o southern oscillation (enso), has brought attention to possible short-term impacts of changes in climate. more subtle seasonal phenomena also have been linked to agricultural productivity, with florida citrus freeze risk (downton and miller), and dryland maize production in southern africa having been shown to be influenced by enso and other ocean circulation patterns (cane, eshel, and buckland). the considerable attention that has been focused on agricultural impacts of climate change, has largely focused on fifty to 100 year mean climate change effects (lewandrowski and schimmelpfennig; adams et al
According to Anderson and Hazell ,what caused yields of many crops to become more sensitive to the weather?
anderson and hazell argue that adoption of common high-yielding varieties, uniform planting practices, and common timing of field operations, have caused yields of many crops to become more sensitive to the weather, especially in developing countries. hazell makes similar observations concerning cereal production in the united states
yield variability as influenced by climate: a statistical investigation studies of agricultural impacts of possible future climate change seldom report distributions of potential outcomes. part of the reason for this may be that little empirical evidence is available on sources of agricultural output variability. this study presents maximum likelihood panel data estimates of the impacts of climate on yield variability for the major u.s. agricultural crops. panel data timeseries techniques are used to specify and estimate a stochastic production function of the form suggested by just and pope the effects of climate on yield levels and variances are shown to vary depending on the crop. for sorghum more rainfall and higher temperatures increase yields while increasing yield variability. precipitation and temperature individually have opposite effects on corn yield levels and variability. key words: climate, yield variability, time-series, panel data just-pope 1 yield variability as influenced by climate: a statistical investigation variability of agricultural yield is well known to depend on the weather. extreme weather events like hurricanes and droughts have obvious impacts and recently necessitated two disaster relief bills for farmers. identification and prediction of the influences of seasonal-to-interannual climate phenomena, like the el ni o southern oscillation (enso), has brought attention to possible short-term impacts of changes in climate. more subtle seasonal phenomena also have been linked to agricultural productivity, with florida citrus freeze risk (downton and miller), and dryland maize production in southern africa having been shown to be influenced by enso and other ocean circulation patterns (cane, eshel, and buckland). the considerable attention that has been focused on agricultural impacts of climate change, has largely focused on fifty to 100 year mean climate change effects (lewandrowski and schimmelpfennig; adams et al.). climate variability has been considered in a few longer term studies, but the studies do not generally incorporate sensitivity tests or estimate changes in distributions of outcomes (mearns, rosenzweig, and goldberg, 1996 and 1997; schimmelpfennig). factors other than climate influence the variability of agricultural production. anderson and hazell argue that adoption of common high-yielding varieties, uniform planting practices, and common timing of field operations, have caused yields of many crops to become more sensitive to the weather, especially in developing countries. hazell makes similar observations concerning cereal production in the united states. roumasset et al. and tollini and seagraves argue that increased fertilizer use has had an impact. an open question is how sensitive might agricultural yield variability be to climatic change? the 2 ultimate answer will depend upon future technological progress, crop climatic adaptation, and co2
What variables are included in the data for this analysis?
the earth science data for our analysis consists of global snapshots of measurement values for a number of variables (e.g., temperature, pressure and precipitation) collected for all land and sea surfaces (see figure 2
Some of the data in this analysis comes from observations; where does the other data come from?
hese variable values are either observations from different sensors, e.g., precipitation, sea level pressure (slp), sea surface temperature (sst), or the result of model predictions, e.g., npp (net primary production or plant growth) from the casa model
What attributes does this analysis focus on?
for the analysis presented here, we focus on attributes measured at points (grid cells) on latitude-longitude spherical grids of different resolutions, e.g., land temperature, which is available at a resolution of 0 5*x 0 5*, and sst, which is available for a 1*x 1
the earth science data for our analysis consists of global snapshots of measurement values for a number of variables (e.g., temperature, pressure and precipitation) collected for all land and sea surfaces (see figure 2). these variable values are either observations from different sensors, e.g., precipitation, sea level pressure (slp), sea surface temperature (sst), or the result of model predictions, e.g., npp (net primary production or plant growth) from the casa model and are typically available at monthly intervals that span a range of 10 to 50 years. for the analysis presented here, we focus on attributes measured at points (grid cells) on latitude-longitude spherical grids of different resolutions, e.g., land temperature, which is available at a resolution of 0 5*x 0 5*, and sst, which is available for a 1*x 1*
What has the Canadian transportation sector invested in?
a large number of adaptive measures to accommodate current climate and weather variability
What do transportation systems represent?
long-term investments that cannot be easily relocated, redesigned or reconstructed
What would happen under a changed climate?
the nature and range of adaptive measures would likely change, with costs increasing in some areas and decreasing in others
the canadian transportation sector has invested in a large number of adaptive measures to accommodate current climate and weather variability. many of these responses, intended to protect infrastructure, maintain mobility and ensure safety, involve significant expenditures but result in a robust system that is able to accommodate a wide range of conditions, as currently experienced. transportation systems, however, represent long-term investments that cannot be easily relocated, redesigned or reconstructed. thus, there is a need to be forward looking and to consider not just our recent past, but also our near and longer term future. under a changed climate, the nature and range of adaptive measures would likely change, with costs increasing in some areas and decreasing in others. however, current literature suggests that the risks will be manageable, with appropriate forward planning. nevertheless, at this time, there is little evidence that climate change is being factored into transportation decisions. the following discussion provides examples of current practices, innovations and potential adaptations that may reduce vulnerability related to climate change. the discussion focuses mainly on planned, rather than reactive, responses.
What did one study find?
one study did find that u.k. participants were most likely to list temperature increases in response to an open-ended question about what they knew about "climate change," especially if it was referred to as "global warming
What did another study that examined perceived consequences of climate change find?
another study that examined perceived consequences of climate change found that u.k. participants were less likely than u.s. participants to reference "heat" while only u.k. respondents mentioned "rain
What is there a need for?
there is a need for a country-specific examination, focusing on public perceptions of those weather patterns that may be changing in the united kingdom as a result of climate change, and their association with public climate change beliefs
although the research that was discussed above suggested a link between perceptions of temperature increases and beliefs about climate change, most of that work has been conducted in the united states.(6,8-11,24,25)one study did find that u.k. participants were most likely to list temperature increases in response to an open-ended question about what they knew about "climate change," especially if it was referred to as "global warming."(3)however, when asked directly about the impacts of climate change, "temperature increases/heat" was only the ninth most popular response, with participants being more likely to mention flooding. another study that examined perceived consequences of climate change found that u.k. participants were less likely than u.s. participants to reference "heat" while only u.k. respondents mentioned "rain."(2)in part, these findings may have been due to the phrase "climate change" being used with u.k. participants and "global warming" with those in the united states. however, differences in climate between localities may also play a role. another recent u.s. investigation examining perceived personal experiences of "global warming" among residents in one michigan county found that the experiences reported by participants included perceived reductions in rainfall.(26)this perceived reduction in rainfall was consistent with meteorological records.(26)thus, there is a need for a country-specific examination, focusing on public perceptions of those weather patterns that may be changing in the united kingdom as a result of climate change, and their association with public climate change beliefs. moreover, there is reason to believe that between-country variations in perceptions of weather and climate change may reflect people's different experiences. indeed, personal experience with specific hazards changes people's perceptions of these hazards.(27)research on the affect heuristic additionally shows that events that trigger stronger negative affect are perceived as more risky.(28,29)
What are the ideas that natural disasters are related?
an eff ective assessment of the increasing climatechange-driven extreme events requires that national governments embrace the idea that natural disasters are related to the particular societal context within which these events take place
Define about consequence?
in other words, those aff ected are in a position of risk as a consequence of a portfolio of economic, social, and political institutional factors that can and should be addressed by decision makers
Explain integrating the disaster risk reduction paradigm ?
130 control of climate-change-related extreme events has to be achieved through developmental and humanitarian responses, and through increased preparedness and response that come from integrating the disaster risk reduction paradigm (defi ned by the un international strategy for disaster reduction as "the broad development and application of policies, strategies and practices to minimise vulnerabilities and disaster risks throughout society") with a nation's future development.108,111
an eff ective assessment of the increasing climatechange-driven extreme events requires that national governments embrace the idea that natural disasters are related to the particular societal context within which these events take place. in other words, those aff ected are in a position of risk as a consequence of a portfolio of economic, social, and political institutional factors that can and should be addressed by decision makers.130 control of climate-change-related extreme events has to be achieved through developmental and humanitarian responses, and through increased preparedness and response that come from integrating the disaster risk reduction paradigm (defi ned by the un international strategy for disaster reduction as "the broad development and application of policies, strategies and practices to minimise vulnerabilities and disaster risks throughout society") with a nation's future development.108,111
Who does Sluyter call "neo-determinists"?
sluyter is scathingly dismissive of such opportunism, however, and the intellectual credulity exhibited by what he calls the "neo-determinists", authors such as jared diamond and geoffrey sachs
What is the narrator's argument?
in summary, my argument concerns the hegemony held by the predictive natural and biological sciences over visions of the future
Much can change in the future, however, what does the current credible and quantitive knowledge direct our perception?
it thus becomes tempting to adopt a reductionist methodology when examining possible social futures. 'lots of things will change in the future, but since we have credible and quantitative knowledge about future climate let us examine, also quantitatively, what the consequences of
whilst i think there is some merit in his argument in the more general field of environment-society interactions, i wish to suggest a different line of reasoning which applies very specifically to the case of climate reductionism i have illustrated above. it is a line of reasoning which emerges from the way in which the understanding of climate change developed over the last decades of the twentieth century. as if belatedly realising the inadvisability of the dualistic thinking pervading western thought, there was a rush to forge a new rapprochement between nature and culture. determinist thinking was the simplest and most available ideology to hand. sluyter is scathingly dismissive of such opportunism, however, and the intellectual credulity exhibited by what he calls the "neo-determinists", authors such as jared diamond and geoffrey sachs. in summary, my argument concerns the hegemony held by the predictive natural and biological sciences over visions of the future. in the case of climate change, this hegemony is rooted in the knowledge claims of climate, or earth system, models. in the absence of comparable epistemological reach emerging from the social sciences or humanities, these claims lend disproportionate discursive power to model-based descriptions of putative future climates. it thus becomes tempting to adopt a reductionist methodology when examining possible social futures. 'lots of things will change in the future, but since we have credible and quantitative knowledge about future climate let us examine, also quantitatively, what the consequences of
How does figure 5 show global mean anthropogenic sulfate burden - as a time series or as a histogram?
fig. 5 time series
What kinds of sulfate forcing does figure 5 show: direct, indirect or both?
direct and indirect sulfate forcing
Is indirect forcing diagnosed as stronger or weaker than weaker than in separate offline calculations using HadAM3?
weaker than that diagnosed in separate offline calculations using hadam3
fig. 5 time series of a global mean anthropogenic sulfate burden; b direct and indirect sulfate forcing; c global annual mean turnover time in the atmosphere (i.e. anthropogenic sulfur burden divided by emissions); and d normalized direct and indirect forcing (i.e. forcing divided by burden); for the a1fi, a2, b2 and b1 experiments. note that the forcings and burdens represent data computed from single years of the experiments only, not continuously throughout the simulations. the indirect forcing as diagnosed in the coupled experiments is typically about 30% weaker than that diagnosed in separate offline calculations using hadam3 (see text) 592 johns et al.: anthropogenic climate change for 1860 to 2100 simulated with the hadcm3 model
What is climate change?
at a british sociological association workshop in january 2011 the question of how to make sociology more influential in policy circles arose. john urry, sitting on the event's panel, put forward the opinion that a genuine crossover text on climate change and society would go a long way to embedding sociological insights into thinking on climate change
What is climate policy?
giddens' book - subject to one of the most coruscating reviews i have seen in an academic journal (castree, 2010) - summarised but failed to add much of substance to climate policy debates, despite attempting to humbly coin the (non-)concept 'the giddens paradox'. urry's sociological adventures in carbon on the other hand provide something more
What is climate change intervention?
mobility, urry argues, is central to contemporary western resource use, and as such should be a core focus of climate change interventions. we need, for example, to seek life 'after the car'; and to vastly reduce the 'resource miles' required to live our daily lives. urry frames the debate through a concern for non-linear systems as opposed to what he critiques as the 'gradualist' approach of economistic understandings of climate 'futures'. this works through both his understanding of climate science and of societal systems, in particular in discussing the importance of social innovation to determining societal futures and the importance of 'tipping points' that can lead to the
at a british sociological association workshop in january 2011 the question of how to make sociology more influential in policy circles arose. john urry, sitting on the event's panel, put forward the opinion that a genuine crossover text on climate change and society would go a long way to embedding sociological insights into thinking on climate change. it was perhaps fortuitous then that urry already had a book that aimed to do such a thing on the road to publication: climate change and society was published just a few months later in may 2011. urry is not the first eminent sociologist to pronounce on issues of climate change, having been preceded by anthony giddens' the politics of climate change (2009). there are some similarities between the two: both seek to capture some of the central debates in the social sciences on climate change in an attempt to - at least partly - make them their own. giddens' book - subject to one of the most coruscating reviews i have seen in an academic journal (castree, 2010) - summarised but failed to add much of substance to climate policy debates, despite attempting to humbly coin the (non-)concept 'the giddens paradox'. urry's sociological adventures in carbon on the other hand provide something more. much of the book is concerned with summarising (though not always explicitly referencing) on-going discussions in the social sciences with regard to climate change: most prominently social practice and transitions theories. but there are genuine moments of intrigue within the book, in particular the central conceit surrounding the role of mobilities (broadly conceived) in the construction of climate change. mobility, urry argues, is central to contemporary western resource use, and as such should be a core focus of climate change interventions. we need, for example, to seek life 'after the car'; and to vastly reduce the 'resource miles' required to live our daily lives. urry frames the debate through a concern for non-linear systems as opposed to what he critiques as the 'gradualist' approach of economistic understandings of climate 'futures'. this works through both his understanding of climate science and of societal systems, in particular in discussing the importance of social innovation to determining societal futures and the importance of 'tipping points' that can lead to the
How often does the climatological mean of the month January occur throughout documented history?
in that sense, the long-term mean field is a rare event
Are there factors beside the mathematical mean to determine how the climatological condition of January is represented throughout history?
specifically, it is necessary to describe the dominant patterns of spatial variability about the long-term mean and to say something about the range of patterns one is likely to see in a 'typical' january
Is the present-day climate different than 6,000 years ago?
today's climate is different from that which prevailed during the holocene (6000 years before present) or even during the little ice age a few hundred years ago
some individual january mean fields (e.g., 1971) are similar to the long-term mean field. there are differences in detail, but they share the zonal wavenumber 2 pattern5of the mean field. the secondary ridges and troughs have different intensities and longitudinal phases. other januaries (e.g., 1981) 300 hpa geopotential height fields are very different from the mean state. they are characterized by a zonal wavenumber 3 pattern rather than a zonal wavenumber 2 pattern. the long-term mean masks a great deal of interannual variability. for example, the minimum of the long-term mean field is larger than the minima of all but one of the individual january states. also, the spatial variability of each of the individual monthly means is larger than that of the long-term mean. thus, the long-term mean field is not a 'typical' field, as it is very unlikely to be observed as an individual monthly mean. in that sense, the long-term mean field is a rare event. characterization of the 'typical' january requires more than the long-term mean. specifically, it is necessary to describe the dominant patterns of spatial variability about the long-term mean and to say something about the range of patterns one is likely to see in a 'typical' january. this can be accomplished to a limited extent through the use of a technique called empirical orthogonal function analysis (chapter 13). third, a climatological mean should be understood to be a moving target. today's climate is different from that which prevailed during the holocene (6000 years before present) or even during the little ice age a few hundred years ago.
What is the main cause of Earth's atmospheric composition?
humans are now the main cause of changes of earth's atmospheric composition and thus the drive for future climate chang
How many nations have agreed to limit emissions?
more than 170 nations have agreed on the need to limit fossil fuel emissions
What is the growth rate of fossil fuel emissions?
the growth rate of fossil fuel emissions increased from 1.5%/year during 1980-2000 to 3%/year in 2000-2012
humans are now the main cause of changes of earth's atmospheric composition and thus the drive for future climate change the principal climate forcing, defined as an imposed change of planetary energy balance [1-2], is increasing carbon dioxide (co2) from fossil fuel emissions, much of which will remain in the atmosphere for millennia [1,3]. the climate response to this forcing and society's response to climate change are complicated by the system's inertia, mainly due to the ocean and the ice sheets on greenland and antarctica together with the long residence time of fossil fuel carbon in the climate system. the inertia causes climate to appear to respond slowly to this humanmade forcing, but further long-lasting responses can be locked in. more than 170 nations have agreed on the need to limit fossil fuel emissions to avoid dangerous human-made climate change, as formalized in the 1992 framework convention on climate change however, the stark reality is that global emissions have accelerated (fig. 1) and new efforts are underway to massively expand fossil fuel extraction [7-9] by drilling to increasing ocean depths and into the arctic, squeezing oil from tar sands and tar shale, hydro-fracking to expand extraction of natural gas, developing exploitation of methane hydrates, and mining of coal via mountaintop removal and mechanized longwall mining. the growth rate of fossil fuel emissions increased from 1.5%/year during 1980-2000 to 3%/year in 2000-2012, mainly because of increased coal use [4-5]. the framework convention does not define a dangerous level for global warming or an emissions limit for fossil fuels. the
What is argued this all means for policy making?
we argue that these findings show that public carbon capability is below the levels required for active citizen engagement with climate change which would lead to carbon--reduction activities
What cannot we exclude from the considerations?
we therefore cannot exclude considerations of the social meanings and institutions associated with driving and flying (e.g., barr et al., 2008), and the availability or otherwise of practical low--carbon alternative systems of transport provision (e.g., lorenzoni et al., 2007
What has been concluded?
we conclude that there are likely to be interlinked deficiencies along all three dimensions of carbon capability (decision--making, practices, and structural engagement), which undermine the foundations of a carbon--reduction policy context requiring voluntary action by individuals
what does this mean for policy? we argue that these findings show that public carbon capability is below the levels required for active citizen engagement with climate change which would lead to carbon--reduction activities. however, we do not principally (or solely) blame individuals' lack of knowledge and understanding for their low levels of pro--environmental behavior. rather, our findings are consistent with substantial existing evidence (e.g., stern, 2000, lorenzoni et al., 2007, whitmarsh, 2009a) that current systems of provision are often not conducive to such practices; and that contextual barriers contribute to the widely--reported 'value--action gap' (blake, 1999). for example, we found that knowledge about the contribution of car use and flying to climate change is high (over 90% acknowledging that vehicle and aeroplane emissions are a cause of climate change), but that change in relation to these transport behaviors is much lower (6--36%, depending on the particular transport behaviour). we therefore cannot exclude considerations of the social meanings and institutions associated with driving and flying (e.g., barr et al., 2008), and the availability or otherwise of practical low--carbon alternative systems of transport provision (e.g., lorenzoni et al., 2007). we conclude that there are likely to be interlinked deficiencies along all three dimensions of carbon capability (decision--making, practices, and structural engagement), which undermine the foundations of a carbon--reduction policy context requiring voluntary action by individuals. given this
Explain best known computational approaches to causality?
one of the best known computational approaches to causality is the concept of granger causality introduced by granger (1969
Which  helps predict future values of Y ?
x granger causes a second time series, y if past values of x contain information that helps predict future values of y above and beyond the information contained in the past values of y alone. granger causality is implemented by first performing linear regression of the time series and then applying statistical tests on the regression coefficients
Explain implementation of  Granger causality?
granger causality is implemented by first performing linear regression of the time series and then applying statistical tests on the regression coefficients
one of the best known computational approaches to causality is the concept of granger causality introduced by granger (1969). a time series, x granger causes a second time series, y if past values of x contain information that helps predict future values of y above and beyond the information contained in the past values of y alone. granger causality is implemented by first performing linear regression of the time series and then applying statistical tests on the regression coefficients. granger causality is thus a measure for predictability based on a linear model and applies only to time series data. reasoning about causality was put on a more general footing starting in the late 1980s through the introduction of causal calculus (rebane and pearl 1987) and the use of probabilistic graphical models to represent causal relationships. the idea of representing causal structure in a graphical way goes back to wright (1921, 1934) who defined path diagrams for structural equation models, a concept commonly used in economics to date. pearl (1988) proposed the use of graphical models to represent probabilistic independence relationships between variables. this approach does not rely on temporal information, so it applies equally to nontemporal and time series data. spirtes, glymour, and scheines (spirtes et al. 1991, 1993) addressed the problem of detecting hidden common causes, which in turn allowed for causal interpretation of the graphs. these contributions by pearl and spirtes et al. laid the foundation for the field of causal discovery and thus jump started the development of a myriad of algorithms that detect cause-effect
How should social, cultural, and political difference be celebrated?
social, cultural, and political difference ought to be celebrated for its provocations (differing) not its legitimizing (deferring) effects
Despite the postdevelopment approach to climate change adaptation, what problems do the reformist agendas face?
there are numerous transformational discourses and practices that reject the very foundations of more reformist agendas
in practice, this position supports recent calls for more pluralistic and positive environmental politics that can bring con fl icting worldviews together in search of an adequate response to the threats of global climate change.8,63,66however, inclusivity alone is not enough, as the repeated shortcomings of international climate negotiations attest. genuinely participatory and novel interactions will have to take place in less aggregated arenas, that is, not just multiactor governance dancing to the tune of top - down prescriptions or the seemingly unassailable logic of globalized economic markets.39social, cultural, and political difference ought to be celebrated for its provocations (differing) not its legitimizing (deferring) effects. as political theories of learning suggest, in the context of environmental policy we can expect macropolitical structures (e.g., institutions and paradigms) to produce incremental or ' of a kind ' change41,60and the micropolitical (e.g., personal networks and social movements) to produce radically alternative discourses and practices.17,41,91to illustrate, the governments and industries of most wealthy countries -- and the international institutions they dominate -- have predominantly sought to reform rather than rethink the social and economic arrangements responsible for anthropogenic climate change, for example, through ecological modernization and green capitalism. yet, however hegemonic such discourses of global capitalism may appear there are always cracks in the system to be found and exploited. contradicting lukes '103notion of a totalizing cognitive form of power, deleuze and guattari remind us of the creative potential of intersubjectivity,101of the destabilizing effect of actors ' expressive and material capacities when they come together and collide with each other and with the status quo. whether in the economic degrowth road to emissions reductions or the postdevelopment approach to climate change adaptation, there are numerous transformational discourses and practices that reject the very foundations of more reformist agendas.63
Is there any problem(s) if the temperature rises 2degC or more?
temperature rises above 2degc will be challenging for contemporary societies to cope with and will increase the level of climate disruption through the rest of the century
this report is mainly based on the consensus fi ndings from the 2007 ipcc report. recent scientifi c fi ndings, however, increased the concerns arising from the ipcc report. in march, 2009, in copenhagen (denmark), an international scientifi c congress on climate change was attended by more than 2500 delegates from about 80 countries.26 this congress raised several concerns: * recent observations confi rm that, because of high rates of observed emissions, the worst-case ipcc scenario trajectories (or even worse) are being realised for parameters such as global mean surface temperature, sea level rise, ocean and ice-sheet dynamics, ocean acidifi cation, and extreme climatic events. many parameters might worsen, leading to an increasing risk of abrupt or irreversible climatic shifts. * societies are highly vulnerable to even modest climate change, with poor nations and communities especially at risk. temperature rises above 2degc will be challenging for contemporary societies to cope with and will increase the level of climate disruption through the rest of the century.
What happens if the interannual variability of the cold extremes over centeral and southern Europe is reduced?
interannual variability of the cold extremes over central and southern europe is reduced, the reduction in the scale parameter is 30-50
How long is the estimated analogy to Tmax 20 for the entire European domain?
the probability indeed becomes so small that the waiting time of the 1961-1990 tmin 20 values in 2071-2100, estimated by analogy to tmax 20, will be from several hundred years to infinity for the whole european domain (see also kharin et al., 2007, fig. 9
interannual variability of the cold extremes over central and southern europe is reduced, the reduction in the scale parameter is 30-50%. in scandinavia no significant changes in the interannual variability were found (not shown). obviously, the strong warming in tmin 20 results in much smaller probability of recurrence of extremely cold events in the scn period. the probability indeed becomes so small that the waiting time of the 1961-1990 tmin 20 values in 2071-2100, estimated by analogy to tmax 20, will be from several hundred years to infinity for the whole european domain (see also kharin et al., 2007, fig. 9).
What does Wittenbert et all. (2006) exhibit?
wittenberg et al. (2006), cm2.1 exhibits 200-hpa geopotential height extrema that are weaker than and displaced 20 8 -30 8 west of those observed--due in part to similarly westward-shifted responses of the equatorial sst and rainfall
Which two regions remain displaced westward?
while the north pacific low and canadian high remain displaced somewhat westward from their observed positions
Which regions have strengthened?
the extrema over the north pacific and canada have strengthened, the pacific low extends farther northwestward toward siberia, the low over the southeastern united states has become a distinct center, and the low over southeastern china has weakened
wittenberg et al. (2006), cm2.1 exhibits 200-hpa geopotential height extrema that are weaker than and displaced 20 8 -30 8 west of those observed--due in part to similarly westward-shifted responses of the equatorial sst and rainfall. while the north pacific low and canadian high remain displaced somewhat westward from their observed positions in cm2.5, there are also significant improvements in the extratropical response. the extrema over the north pacific and canada have strengthened, the pacific low extends farther northwestward toward siberia, the low over the southeastern united states has become a distinct center, and the low over southeastern china has weakened.
How does this report qualify aerosol radiative forcing?
by specifying the initial and perturbed aerosol states for which the radiative flux difference is calculated, the altitude at which the quantity is assessed, the wavelength regime considered, the temporal averaging, the cloud conditions, and whether total or only human-induced contributions are considered
What aggregate is often called aerosol-cloud interactions?
the concept of aerosol effects on clouds is complicated by the impact clouds have on aerosols
How does this report define "feedbacks"?
the consequences of changes in surface or atmospheric temperature, with the understanding that for some applications, the accounting may be done differently
the u.s. climate change science program chapter 1 14 which elements are "causes" of climate change (forcings among them), which are responses to these causes, and which might be some of each. so, for example, the concept of aerosol effects on clouds is complicated by the impact clouds have on aerosols; the aggregate is often called aerosol-cloud interactions. this distinction sometimes matters, as it is more natural to attribute responsibility for causes than for responses. however, practical environmental considerations usually depend on the net result of all influences. in this report, "feedbacks" are taken as the consequences of changes in surface or atmospheric temperature, with the understanding that for some applications, the accounting may be done differently. in summary, aerosol radiative forcing, the fundamental quantity about which this report is written, must be qualified by specifying the initial and perturbed aerosol states for which the radiative flux difference is calculated, the altitude at which the quantity is assessed, the wavelength regime considered, the temporal averaging, the cloud conditions, and whether total or only human-induced contributions are considered. the definition given here, qualified as needed, is used throughout the report. although the possibility that aerosols affect climate was recognized more than 40 years ago, the measurements needed to establish the magnitude of such effects, or even whether
What makes the climate system unpredictable beyond certain characteristic times?
the nonlinearities and the instabilities make the climate system unpredictable beyond certain characteristic times
Which are the two factors required for the interpretation of climate as a stationary stochastic system?
the two factors, noise and damping, are the elements required for the interpretation of climate as a stationary stochastic system (see also section 10.4
Why explicit noise must be added to the system as an explicit forcing term to create statistical variations in the simulated system?
most ocean general circulation models are strongly dissipative and behave almost linearly. explicit noise must therefore be added to the system as an explicit forcing term to create statistical variations in the simulated system
the nonlinearities and the instabilities make the climate system unpredictable beyond certain characteristic times. these characteristic time scales are different for different subsystems, such as the ocean, midlatitude troposphere, and tropical troposphere. the nonlinear processes in the system amplify minor disturbances, causing them to evolve irregularly in a way that allows their interpretation as finite-amplitude noise. in general, the dissipative character of the system guarantees its 'stationarity.' that is, it does not 'run away' from the region of phase space that it currently occupies, an effect that can happen in general nonlinear systems or in linearly unstable systems. the two factors, noise and damping, are the elements required for the interpretation of climate as a stationary stochastic system (see also section 10.4). under what circumstances should the output of climate models be considered stochastic? a major difference between the real climate and any climate model is the size of the phase space. the phase space of a model is much smaller than that of the real climate system because the model's phase space is truncated in both space and time. that is, the background noise, due to unknown factors, is missing. therefore a model run can be repeated with identical results, provided that the computing environment is unchanged and the same initial conditions are used. to make the climate model output realistic we need to make the model unpredictable. most ocean general circulation models are strongly dissipative and behave almost linearly. explicit noise must therefore be added to the system as an explicit forcing term to create statistical variations in the simulated system (see, for instance [276] or [418]). in dynamical atmospheric models (as opposed to energy-balance models) the nonlinearities are strong enough to
In which city is the Division of Environmental Health and Risk Management located?
division of environmental health and risk management, school of geography, earth and environmental sciences, university of birmingham, edgbaston, birmingham
Where is the Environmental Change Department located?
environmental change department, centre for radiation, chemical and environmental hazards, public health england, chilton, oxon ox11 0rq, uk
Where is the Department of Social and Environmental Health Research located?
department of social and environmental health research, london school of hygiene and tropical medicine, 15-17 tavistock place, london wc1h 9sh, uk
environmental change department, centre for radiation, chemical and environmental hazards, public health england, chilton, oxon ox11 0rq, uk b department of social and environmental health research, london school of hygiene and tropical medicine, 15-17 tavistock place, london wc1h 9sh, uk c division of environmental health and risk management, school of geography, earth and environmental sciences, university of birmingham, edgbaston, birmingham b15 2tt, uk d department of biology, hong kong baptist university, kowloon tong, hong kong, china e ucl institute for environmental design and engineering, the bartlett school of environment energy and resources, university college london, 14 upper woburn place, london wcih onn, uk f public health england toxicology unit, department of medicine, imperial college london, london w12 0nn, uk
WHAT WAS THE TEMPERATURE INCREASE BETWEEN 1900-1990?
suggest a temperature rise of 3.8 degc
WHAT WERE THE PROJECTIONS FOR CALIFORNIA?
projections for california derived by using the national center for atmospheric research (ncar) pcm model with the a1fi emissions scenario (45), for example, suggest a temperature rise of 3.8 degc by the end of the century from the 1990-1999 baseline, whereas the hadley cm3 model projects a temperature rise of 5.8 degc for the same emissions scenario (46
HOW IS THE CLIMATE RESOLUTION INCREASED?
the resolution of climate-model projections is increased by downscaling from gcms to a regional or local scale. statistical downscaling involves interpolations from empirical relationships among variables by using weather-station or gcm data, taking into account topography and local climate anomalies (47
projections of shifts in species' distributions with changes in climate are derived by coupling niche models with projections based on general circulation models (gcms) that describe potential future conditions at a coarse scale of resolution (typically 156-313 km). because different gcms rely on different parameters and incorporate different functions to portray the dynamics of atmospheric circulation, ocean effects, or feedbacks between the land surface and the atmosphere, they may project different consequences for the same level of greenhouse gas emissions. projections for california derived by using the national center for atmospheric research (ncar) pcm model with the a1fi emissions scenario (45), for example, suggest a temperature rise of 3.8 degc by the end of the century from the 1990-1999 baseline, whereas the hadley cm3 model projects a temperature rise of 5.8 degc for the same emissions scenario (46). the resolution of climate-model projections is increased by downscaling from gcms to a regional or local scale. statistical downscaling involves interpolations from empirical relationships among variables by using weather-station or gcm data, taking into account topography and local climate anomalies (47). dynamical downscaling uses regional climate models (rcms) that are nested within gcms to simulate climate patterns at a finer scale than gcms (e.g., 10-50 km) and that include a more detailed representation of land cover (48-50). although statistical downscaling is computationally less demanding than dynamical downscaling, it is more dependent on the availability of adequate weather data and assumes that past relationships between local weather and regional climate will hold into the future. in contrast, dynamical downscaling can simulate nonlinear climate processes that are likely to change in the future. although both approaches aim to incorporate the effects of topography, land cover, and climate anomalies, they are nonetheless constrained by the coarse-scale output of the gcms that drive them (51).
What is the most dominant stimulus motivating adaptation?
the most dominant stimulus motivating adaptation was changes in precipitation, particularly increased occurrence of floods or drought events
In response to what factors adaptation activities occur?
adaptation activities are occurring in response to a mixture of climate change and other motivating factors fig
What are the most frequently cited tools by which adaptations are implemented?
institutional and governmental mechanisms were the most frequently cited tools by which adaptations were implemented
please cite this article in press as: berrang-ford, l., et al., are we adapting to climate change? global environ. change (2010), doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.09.012 droughts, or heatwaves. changes in the predictability of precipitation, as well as increased seasonal variability were reported as particularly important for water, agriculture, and forestry management. the most dominant stimulus motivating adaptation was changes in precipitation, particularly increased occurrence of floods or drought events. adaptation activities are occurring in response to a mixture of climate change and other motivating factors fig. 2 c): climate change was considered to be the sole motivating factor for adaptation actions in only 19% of documents, with 44% reporting climate change as a primary reason among several. adaptation activities have, to a large extent, been purposive, reflecting explicit intent and planning for anticipated future impacts. seventy-eight percent of documents reported adaptations involving anticipatory action. approximately one-half of documents reported adaptations that were reactive, occurring in response to an existing impact or stimulus. the anticipatory nature of adaptive actions is also reflected in the stated goals of adaptive responses. planning for reduced future risk, development of networks and partnerships, and enhancement of knowledge or research were among the most frequently reported table 2 ). these trends, however, reflect the high proportion of adaptations from developed countries where proactive adaptations were more frequently reported. notably, there was very little evidence of activities aimed at capitalizing on potential climate change benefits (7%); those that were reported, however, were significantly more likely to occur in low income countries. proactive adaptive measures, in contrast to reactive activities, were significantly more likely to be stimulated by long-term changes in climatic means or isolated extreme events. 3.3. long-term, proactive adaptation planning is more likely to be undertaken by government anticipatory responses were significantly more likely to be undertaken by higher levels of government, particularly the national level. conversely, individual or household adaptive responses were significantly more likely to arise from a reactive response to existing stimuli. this suggests a gradient in anticipatory adaptive capacity, with institutions and governments showing potentially higher capacity or resources to proactively engage in adaptive initiatives. institutional and governmental mechanisms were the most frequently cited tools by which adaptations were implemented. this was followed by the provision of financial support. financial provisions were significantly more likely to occur for adaptations occurring at the national level, though national participation alone was insufficient and was not associated with financial mechanisms. results indicate that adaptations at the individual or household level may occur more often in response to financial stimuli, including changing economic market conditions and resource availability, particularly diminishing or inequitable food supplies. documents highlighting individual/household adaptations were over 8 times as likely to report market conditions and close to 3 times as likely to report resource availability as stimuli compared to documents not reporting adaptations at this scale. conversely, documents highlighting multination adaptations were significantly more likely to reference climate change in general as a stimulus.
What is fundamental biological?
because of its pervasiveness and potential effect on fundamental biological processes, climate change will interact with other existing stressors to affect the distribution, spread, abundance, and impact of invasive species (gritti et al. 2006). climate change also will challenge the definition of invasive species because some taxa that were previously invasive may diminish in impact
What is anecdotal evidence?
anecdotal evidence suggests that climate change is not likely to substantially decrease the impact of current invasive species because many of them already span a range of environmental conditions
What are the climate change side effects?
even if climate change leads to the demise of some invasive species and the rise of others, leaving the richness of invasive species the same, it would be valuable to identify which species are likely to change. the framework of consequences and hypotheses delineated here can facilitate such distinctions
because of its pervasiveness and potential effect on fundamental biological processes, climate change will interact with other existing stressors to affect the distribution, spread, abundance, and impact of invasive species (gritti et al. 2006). climate change also will challenge the definition of invasive species because some taxa that were previously invasive may diminish in impact; other, previously noninvasive species, may become invasive; and many native species will shift their geographic distributions, moving into areas where they were previously absent. these are all reasons to specify carefully what is meant by an invasive species. we define invasive species as those taxa that have been introduced recently and exert substantial negative impact on native biota, economic values, or human health (lodge et al. 2006). therefore, we do not consider a native species that has expanded its range under climate change to be invasive unless it causes discernable damage. a key research question is whether or not climate change will be a zero-sum game for invasive species, causing the emergence of new invasive species but also reducing the impact of extant invasive species such that they may no longer be invasive. anecdotal evidence suggests that climate change is not likely to substantially decrease the impact of current invasive species because many of them already span a range of environmental conditions (e.g., qian ricklefs 2006). meanwhile, for example, new species with the potential to invade will likely arrive as climate change alters which species are successfully transported. even if climate change leads to the demise of some invasive species and the rise of others, leaving the richness of invasive species the same, it would be valuable to identify which species are likely to change. the framework of consequences and hypotheses delineated here can facilitate such distinctions.
what is the review's estimate of the output loss now?
the review's estimate of the output loss now, as in "today," is essentially zero
state some example?
take as an example the high-climate scenario with catastrophic and non-market impacts
what is the mean loss percent in 2060?
the mean losses are 0.4 percent of world output in 2060
in fact, the in fact, the review's estimate of the output loss now, as in "today," is essentially zero. moreover, the projected impacts from climate change are far into the future. take as an example the high-climate scenario with catastrophic and non-market impacts. for this case, the mean losses are 0.4 percent of world output in 2060, 2.9 percent in 2100, and 13.8 percent in 2200.25 this is calculated as a loss in "current per capita consumption" of 14.4 percent shown in table 6.1. with even further gloomy adjustments, it becom the "high+" case of "20% cut in per-capita consumption, now and forever es ."
Why Cumulative mitigation for the LLP strategy was 435 Tg CO2e?
cumulative mitigation for the llp strategy was 435 tg co2e, because of reduced emissions from hwps (positive mitigation) and increased displaced emissions (positive mitigation) from using more wood products relative to the base case
What increased the product lifetimes?
shifting the commodity mix to longer-lived products increased the product lifetimes
What contributed to increase in  emissions (negative mitigation) relative to the base case?
the strategy to increase the proportion of bioenergy feedstock from the harvest resulted in increased emissions (negative mitigation) relative to the base case
cumulative mitigation for the llp strategy was 435 tg co2e, because of reduced emissions from hwps (positive mitigation) and increased displaced emissions (positive mitigation) from using more wood products relative to the base case (fig. 4). shifting the commodity mix to longer-lived products increased the product lifetimes, which delayed end-of-life emissions from retired products that were used for bioenergy production or put into landfills. it also increased product displacement because there was an increase in sawn wood and panels relative to base case resulting in greater avoided emissions. the cumulative mitigation for the hwp llp strategy was comparable, but slightly smaller in 2050 than the better utilization strategy. the strategy to increase the proportion of bioenergy feedstock from the harvest resulted in increased emissions (negative mitigation) relative to the base case the net effect was an increase in emissions because the increase in hwp emissions (resulting from shortening product lifetimes) was not compensated by the avoided emissions (from using bioenergy in place of other energy sources).
How many quadrants in Figure 5 represent the present and future payoffs of climate adaptation?
the four quadrants in figure 5 represent the present and future payoffs of climate adaptation
Which quadrant represents adaptation actions that generate losses both in the short and long run?
the 'lose-lose' (l l) quadrant represents adaptation actions that generate losses both in the short and long run
Which quadrant represent actions that generate positive net returns today and also into the future?
win-win' (w w) quadrant represent actions that generate positive net returns today and also into the future
the four quadrants in figure 5 represent the present and future payoffs of climate adaptation. the 'lose-lose' (l l) quadrant represents adaptation actions that generate losses both in the short and long run while the 'win-win' (w w) quadrant represent actions that generate positive net returns today and also into the future. the other two quadrants represent action space that may, or may not be, desirable depending on the qualitative benefits and costs that may be used in the adaptation planning process. the larger is the discount rate the greater will be the set of 'win lose' (w l) actions that generate positive payoffs in the short run, but net economic losses overall, and the smaller will be the set of 'lose win' (l w) actions that generate transitional costs or losses in the short-run, but positive net returns when evaluated over all time periods. 14 14
At what stage are the solids removed?
these solids are largely removed in the subsequent settling stage
What is the Conversion processes processing?
organic and inorganic matter
effluentsubstrate s(effluentbod5orcod) .representstheeffluent soluble bod5 or soluble cod from the reactor. even though the effluent from the reactor could contain a high concentration of suspended solids (biological solids that compose the biomass), conversion processes of organic and inorganic matter 373 these solids are largely removed in the subsequent settling stage, when existent (e.g. secondary sedimentation tank or sedimentation lagoons). in the design of a reactor that receives recycled solids, there is no point in computing the effluent total bod or cod from it, because it can be occasionally larger than the influent bod or cod, due to the high concentration of particulate organic matter represented by the microbial population. the quality of the final effluent from the treatment plant depends on the (a) soluble bod or cod: reactor performance; (b) particulate bod or cod: performance of the final settling unit (when existent) or the concentration of the effluent solids from the reactor (when there is no final settling unit).
What does oxidation imply in general?
oxidation implies the loss of one or more electrons from the oxidisedsubstance
The oxidised substance can be the organic matter, as well as reduced inorganic compounds and both are referred to as what?
electron donors
The electrons taken from the oxidised molecule are transferred through what kind of reaction?
complicated biochemical reactions
as seen in section 7.5, the generation of energy in the microbial cells can be accomplished, depending on the microorganism, by means of respiration (oxidative catabolism) or fermentation (fermentative catabolism). the name respiration is not restricted to the processes that involve oxygen consumption. in general, oxidation implies the loss of one or more electrons from the oxidisedsubstance(inoxidation,thesubstancegivesinnegativechargesintheform of electrons when passing to a higher oxidation state). the oxidised substance can be the organic matter, as well as reduced inorganic compounds - both are therefore electron donors the electrons taken from the oxidised molecule are transferred through complicated biochemical reactions with the help of enzymes to another inorganic compound (oxidising agent), which receives the generic denomination microbiology and ecology of wastewater treatment 303
What hazardous event dwarfed all other disasters in the history of Sri Lanka?
the 2004 indian ocean tsunami's impact (panel 12) dwarfed all other disasters in the history of sri lanka except the malaria epidemic in 1932-35
What hazard is measured high on the scale when weighting by fatalities?
other measures such as weighting by fatalities gives prominence to cyclones and landslides resulting in subtle but important differences
What organization published similar maps included in the second edition of Sri Lanka government's National Atlas?
similar maps have been published by the world bank disaster management unit and are to be included in the second edition of sri lanka government's national atlas
facing page: estimates of food insecurity and a number of hydrometeorological hazards in sri lanka (panels 1-10) have been analyzed to provide an assessment of the spatial distribution of multiple hazards (panel 11). each hazard was weighted by severity measured by relief expenditure which tends to give prominence to drought. other measures such as weighting by fatalities gives prominence to cyclones and landslides resulting in subtle but important differences. seasonal multihazard maps (not shown) were also constructed and found to be useful. the 2004 indian ocean tsunami's impact (panel 12) dwarfed all other disasters in the history of sri lanka except the malaria epidemic in 1932-35. the number who died, those who were injured, and the property damage were each 100 times larger than the next largest disaster. there is such wide latitude in how one may weight for tsunami's in a multi-hazard map that it remains best kept as a separate indicator. similar maps have been published by the world bank disaster management unit and are to be included in the second edition of sri lanka government's national atlas.
Give an example of a slope of the Greek Cleve?
limate (greek kliua an inclination or slope --e.g., of the sun's rays; a latitude zone of the earth) is commonly understood to mean the average weather in a given region or zone
What are the features of the environment and the climate?
both definitions are unsatisfactory because they imply that, unlike the obvious year-to-year variations of daily weather, long-term climate is a constant. by contrast, modern climatology recognizes that change is an inherent and fundamental feature of climate. therefore, climatic values cannot be quoted without specifying the time span to which they refer
List Climate Values?
climatic variability include fluctuations of the sun's radiant energy, alterations in the transparency of the atmosphere (due to sand, volcanic dust, and other airborne particles), and cyclic changes of the earth's rotation on its axis and its orbit around the sun. in addition, the circulations of the atmosphere and the oceans, which are major components of the climate machine, are subject to internal variations on time scales ranging from weeks to millennia. it is the complex interaction of all these variables that generates the continually changing patterns of climate. as a result, just as the yearly averages of climatic elements--such as temperature, humidity, rainfall, wind, and airborne particles--differ from one another, so too do the averages for decades, centuries, millennia, and millions of years (table 1). climate is a major parameter in all ecosystems and has always been a fundamental factor in human settlement, economy, and culture. episodes of second-order climate change, such as the end of the ice age, the drying of the sahara, the waning of the medieval warm period, and the onset of the little ice age, have had an important impact on human history 1,2,15 ). however, awareness of such change has remained shadowy at best, probably because the inherent time scales are beyond the span of individual human experience. during most of geologic history, temperate conditions extended to the polar circles, and the planet was relatively ice-free 3,16 ). indeed, in the perspective of the past 600 million years, present global temperatures are relatively cool. in the context of these long-term averages, the warming trend that began in the late 1970s (see below) is a minor fluctuation, less than a first-order variation
climate (greek kliua an inclination or slope --e.g., of the sun's rays; a latitude zone of the earth) is commonly understood to mean the average weather in a given region or zone. in its older form, clime also included all aspects of the environment, including the zonal distribution of plants and animals. both definitions are unsatisfactory because they imply that, unlike the obvious year-to-year variations of daily weather, long-term climate is a constant. by contrast, modern climatology recognizes that change is an inherent and fundamental feature of climate. therefore, climatic values cannot be quoted without specifying the time span to which they refer. natural factors that cause climatic variability include fluctuations of the sun's radiant energy, alterations in the transparency of the atmosphere (due to sand, volcanic dust, and other airborne particles), and cyclic changes of the earth's rotation on its axis and its orbit around the sun. in addition, the circulations of the atmosphere and the oceans, which are major components of the climate machine, are subject to internal variations on time scales ranging from weeks to millennia. it is the complex interaction of all these variables that generates the continually changing patterns of climate. as a result, just as the yearly averages of climatic elements--such as temperature, humidity, rainfall, wind, and airborne particles--differ from one another, so too do the averages for decades, centuries, millennia, and millions of years (table 1). climate is a major parameter in all ecosystems and has always been a fundamental factor in human settlement, economy, and culture. episodes of second-order climate change, such as the end of the ice age, the drying of the sahara, the waning of the medieval warm period, and the onset of the little ice age, have had an important impact on human history 1,2,15 ). however, awareness of such change has remained shadowy at best, probably because the inherent time scales are beyond the span of individual human experience. during most of geologic history, temperate conditions extended to the polar circles, and the planet was relatively ice-free 3,16 ). indeed, in the perspective of the past 600 million years, present global temperatures are relatively cool. in the context of these long-term averages, the warming trend that began in the late 1970s (see below) is a minor fluctuation, less than a first-order variation.
Which river has the smallest runoff ratio?
the runoff ratio is the smallest in the nile, due to the excessive evaporation in the swamps of the sudd, bahr el ghazal and the machar marshes
Where does the model reproduce runoff sucessfully?
the model reproduces runoff reasonably well over the blue nile and atbara sub-basins
What has the model been customized to simulate?
the model has been customized to simulate the regional climate of the nile (tropical, semi arid and arid climates
nile and mississippi, respectively. the same is true when considering the moistening efficiency. although the precipitation efficiency is also decreasing successively in the amazon, nile and mississippi, runoff is not exactly following this sequence. the runoff ratio is the smallest in the nile, due to the excessive evaporation in the swamps of the sudd, bahr el ghazal and the machar marshes. the ratio fout/ fin is 70%, 95% and 96% for the amazon, mississippi and nile, respectively. although this ratio is dependent on the large scale circulation in each basin, the barrier of the indies mountain ranges is likely reducing the moisture outflow in the case of the amazon. 6 summary and conclusion a regional climate model has been applied to the nile basin. the model has been customized to simulate the regional climate of the nile (tropical, semi arid and arid climates). the exercise concentrates on reproducing the regional water cycle as accurately as possible. observations on runoff, precipitation, evaporation and radiation have been used to evaluate the model results at the sub-basin level (white nile, blue nile, atbara and the main nile). the model reproduces runoff reasonably well over the blue nile and atbara sub-basins, while it overestimates the white nile runoff. the extremely small runoff coefficient and huge catchment area of the white nile makes the runoff very sensitive to inaccuracy of precipitation or evaporation. except for the period march to june over the white nile, the model simulates the precipitation well over the 4 sub-basins, in particular the time variation. the underestimation of precipitation on the white nile from march to june is partly related to the era-40 forcing on the southern boundary of the model. the evaporation over the sudd wetland could be accurately simulated during the rainy season, while it was overestimated during the dry months because permanent flooding is assumed. in fact, the largest part of the sudd is a seasonal
What are five widespread plant species in Central Europe grasslands?
arrhenatherum elatius (l.) p. beauv. ex j. presl c. presl, holcus lanatus l., geranium pratense l. lotus corniculatus l. and plantago lanceolata l
How long have the plants had been acclimated on site?
all plants had been acclimated on site since february 2005
What is the tallests that the plants have grown to?
all plants had been acclimated on site since february 2005, reaching growth heights of c 15 cm
overall, grasslands are spatially important ecosystems in central europe. five widespread plant species were chosen from the regional flora, i.e. arrhenatherum elatius (l.) p. beauv. ex j. presl c. presl, holcus lanatus l., geranium pratense l. lotus corniculatus l. and plantago lanceolata l. species were selected with respect to their affiliation to defined functional groups (grasses, forbs, leguminous forbs), to life span (perennials), to overall importance in nearby and central european grassland systems, and to the fact that they do naturally grow on substrate similar to the one used in this experiment. one hundred plant individuals per plot in defined quantitative composition were planted in a systematic hexagonal grid with 20 cm distance between individuals in early april 2005. grass and forb individuals used in the experiment were grown from seeds in a greenhouse in the preceding fall. thus, all plants were in a juvenile stage during manipulation and data acquisition. all plants had been acclimated on site since february 2005, reaching growth heights of c 15 cm. biomass at planting amounted to 0.1-0.6 g dry wt per individual. these experimental communities represent naturally occurring species combinations. the grassland plots were established at two levels of species diversity (2 and 4 species) and three levels of functional diversity (1, 2, 3 functional groups), resulting in three species combinations or communities in total (table 1) plus monocultures of selected species.
Who would be most concerned of flooding in a home?
people who have experienced flooding in their own home tend to be more concerned about flooding and perceive greater flood risk
Can negative experiences with weather cause mental illness?
32)overall, negative experiences with extreme weather-related events may lead to negative mental images about climate change and reduced psychological distance, which are associated with perceiving climate change as more dangerous.(34-38
Can a potential flood in someones home make them more cautious?
however, the relationship between experience with flooding and climate change beliefs is unclear, with one u.k. study finding no relationship(32)and another u.k. study finding that individuals with flood experience had more concerns about climate change,(33)suggesting the possibility of growing awareness that flooding events may occur as a result of climate change
people who have experienced flooding in their own home tend to be more concerned about flooding and perceive greater flood risk.(30,31)however, the relationship between experience with flooding and climate change beliefs is unclear, with one u.k. study finding no relationship(32)and another u.k. study finding that individuals with flood experience had more concerns about climate change,(33)suggesting the possibility of growing awareness that flooding events may occur as a result of climate change. even the experience of environmental hazards such as air climate change beliefs 1997 pollution are positively correlated with climate change concern.(32)overall, negative experiences with extreme weather-related events may lead to negative mental images about climate change and reduced psychological distance, which are associated with perceiving climate change as more dangerous.(34-38)
Which Countries government decided to take lead on climate change?
uk government
Who's support does the government need to be effective with climate change?
if the government is to prove effective in this role it needs the support of the public
which countries are the most vulnerable to climate change impacts?
the poor countries of the world that are most vulnerable to climate change impacts (parry et al., 2007
there have been no previous analyses focussing on media portrayals of climate change and international development, perhaps because most of the media coverage appears to concentrate on domestic issues. yet the science shows that it 3 is the poor countries of the world that are most vulnerable to climate change impacts (parry et al., 2007), and one of the current policy imperatives is to involve high emitting, rapidly industrialising developing nations in international agreements. furthermore, the uk government has chosen to take a lead in international action on climate change, both in terms of development assistance and through galvanising international initiatives via bodies such as the g8 and the european union (eu). if the government is to prove effective in this role it needs the support of the public, and it is therefore important to understand how the uk public are informed about climate change and international development.
What needs to be addressed in further researches?
issues for future research riparian microclimates appear to have been relatively little studied, both in general and specifically in relation to the effects of different forest practices
What is the dominant control on forestry related stream warming?
shade
What ground-based hemispherical photographs has to offer?
ground-based hemispherical photographs offer great potential for developing both static indices of shade as well as a tool for modeling the temporal variation of solar transmission as a function of the spatial distribution of canopy gaps
issues for future research riparian microclimates appear to have been relatively little studied, both in general and specifically in relation to the effects of different forest practices. further research needs to address these knowledge gaps. shade is the dominant control on forestry related stream warming, and although algorithms exist for estimating it based on riparian vegetation height and channel geometry, there is a need to refine methods for measuring it in the field and for modeling it. ground-based hemispherical photographs offer great potential for developing both static indices of shade as well as a tool for modeling the temporal variation of solar transmission as a function of the spatial distribution of canopy gaps. further research should focus on the application of hemispherical photography, including an assessment of sampling variability and bias. in addition, the effects of low deciduous vegetation on the heat budget of small streams should be examined to help understand and predict trajectories of thermal recovery in time. further research should address the thermal implications of surface/subsurface hydrologic interactions. studies should focus on both the local scale and reach scale effects of heat exchange associated with hyporheic flow paths, particularly those associated with step pool features, which are common in steep headwater streams. bed temperature patterns in small streams and their relation to stream temperature should be researched, especially in relation to the effects on benthic invertebrates and other nonfish species. the hypothesis that warming of shallow ground water in clear-cuts can contribute to stream warming should be addressed, ideally by a combination of experimental and process/modeling studies. the physical basis for temperature changes downstream of clearings needs to be clarified. in particular, it may be useful to determine whether diagnostic site factors exist that can predict reaches where cooling will occur. such information could assist in the identification of "thermal recovery reaches" to limit the downstream propagation of stream warming. it could also help to identify areas within a cut block where shade from a retention patch would have the greatest influence.
According to Piburger See (Thies et al ., 2012), what is the change in diatom composition related to?
the change in diatom composition recorded both by contemporary monitoring and by the uppermost sediments appears to be related to an increase in productivity linked to climate change rather than to nutrient loading
Why is the change in diatom composition not related to nutrient loading?
nutrient loads have now been reduced to baseline levels and internal p recycling, unlike loch leven and esthwaite water, may be more limited
Does the reduction in external loading cause TP and chlorophyll a levels to increase or decrease?
both tp and chlorophyll a levels are now increasing despite the reduction in external loading
perhaps the clearest evidence for a climate impact related to recent warming comes from piburger see (thies et al ., 2012), where there is good evidence that the change in diatom composition recorded both by contemporary monitoring and by the uppermost sediments appears to be related to an increase in productivity linked to climate change rather than to nutrient loading, as nutrient loads have now been reduced to baseline levels and internal p recycling, unlike loch leven and esthwaite water, may be more limited. both tp and chlorophyll a levels are now increasing despite the reduction in external loading (fig. 3).
Where is Bioenergy derived from?
bioenergy is derived from biomass from agricultural energy crops; forestryand wood-based industries; farm, municipal and industrial organic waste; and marine sources (e.g. seaweed
Where can Biomass be used?
biomass can be used in the generation of electricity, heat and biofuels
How can using bioenergy can be beneficial
using bioenergy can be beneficial to achieve environmental objectives, reduce co2 emissions compared to fossil fuels and support rural development efforts
financial constraints some mitigation options carry large investment costs (in particular for new animal housing and manure management systems) and obtaining finance for this may be difficult, if the revenue obtained is uncertain. bioenergy - opportunities and trade-offs bioenergy is derived from biomass from agricultural energy crops; forestryand wood-based industries; farm, municipal and industrial organic waste; and marine sources (e.g. seaweed). biomass can be used in the generation of electricity, heat and biofuels. using bioenergy can be beneficial to achieve environmental objectives, reduce co2 emissions compared to fossil fuels and support rural development efforts, but there are also some risks and negative impacts linked to extensive use. climate change in agriculture: mitigation/adaptation 547
What grid was explored?
we have explored the impact of the horizontal and vertical grid configuration of 692 an atmospheric general circulation model on the results of both imposed-sst and 693 coupled simulations, focusing on the representation of the mean climate and on 694 the climate sensitivity to greenhouse gases concentration
what impact did the grid have?
the refinement of the horizontal grid has a significant and systematic impact 696 on the model biases, in particular on the latitude of the jets and on the humidity 697 and temperature in the mid latitudes
What refine the grid?
refining the grid in latitude rather than 698 in longitude has a stronger impact on the latitude of the mid-latitude jets in the 699 dynamical core experiments (guemas and codron, 2011) and in the imposed-sst 700 climate simulations, and a stronger impact on the reduction of the cold mid701 latitude sst bias with respect to equator in the coupled experiments
we have explored the impact of the horizontal and vertical grid configuration of 692 an atmospheric general circulation model on the results of both imposed-sst and 693 coupled simulations, focusing on the representation of the mean climate and on 694 the climate sensitivity to greenhouse gases concentration. 695 the refinement of the horizontal grid has a significant and systematic impact 696 on the model biases, in particular on the latitude of the jets and on the humidity 697 and temperature in the mid latitudes. refining the grid in latitude rather than 698 in longitude has a stronger impact on the latitude of the mid-latitude jets in the 699 dynamical core experiments (guemas and codron, 2011) and in the imposed-sst 700 climate simulations, and a stronger impact on the reduction of the cold mid701 latitude sst bias with respect to equator in the coupled experiments. 702
Can weather patterns that measure precipitation be predicted with any certainty?
the impacts of climate change on future precipitation patterns are much less certain than those on temperature, due in part to the highly variable nature of precipitation
What kinds of damage can be done to infrastructure by excessive rainfall?
in the past, there have been many examples of damage to transportation infrastructure due to rainfall-induced landslides and floods
the impacts of climate change on future precipitation patterns are much less certain than those on temperature, due in part to the highly variable nature of precipitation and limited ability of current climate models to resolve certain atmospheric processes. it is thought, however, that annual precipitation is likely to increase over much of canada, with an increase in the proportion of precipitation falling as rain rather than snow in southern regions. in the past, there have been many examples of damage to transportation infrastructure due to rainfall-induced landslides and floods. for example, a 1999 debris flow in the rocky mountains, thought to have been caused by a localized rainfall event, blocked traffic on the trans-canada highway for several days during the tourist season.(30)in 1997, a mudslide in the fraser canyon washed out a section of canadian national railroad track, derailing a freight train and killing two crewmen (reference 31, see figure 3).
How is the start-up of anaerobic reactors determined?
by the initial transient period, marked by operational instabilities
What is an important factor to help increase effectiveness of the anaerobic system?
the reduction of the period necessary for the start-up
What could be done to lower the control of the operation?
to operate the reactor under lower loads
the reduction of the period necessary for the start-up and improved operational control of the anaerobic processes are important factors to increase the efficiency and the competitiveness of the high-rate anaerobic systems. however, a more critical discussion on the similarities, differences and advantages of the different highrate anaerobic systems regarding start-up, operation and monitoring is difficult, once the behaviour of the process depends fundamentally on the characteristics of the wastewater to be treated. in general, high-rate anaerobic processes can be operated with organic loads much higher than those of the conventional anaerobic reactors, but frequently these highly efficient processes require longer start-up periods, better operational control and more qualified operators, so that the maximum performance of the system is reached, with minimal risks of process failure. from the practical point of view, it is more economical to operate the reactor under lower loads, thus decreasing the efforts for the control of the operation and the process. the start-up of the anaerobic reactors and, in a smaller scale, their operation has been considered by technicians as a barrier, possibly due to bad experiences linked to the use of unsuitable operational strategies. therefore, systematised operational procedures are very important, mainly during the start-up of high-rate systems, notably in the case of uasb reactors. the start-up of anaerobic reactors is determined by the initial transient period, marked by operational instabilities. the start-up can be basically achieved in three different manners:
Why is it said that like all modelling approaches, uncertainty exists in the study?
like all modelling approaches, uncertainty exists as parameters may not be known with precision and functional forms may not be fully accurate
What will enhance the integrated framework methodology and future climate impact assessments of the study?
collection and analysis of critical input and output observations (e.g. climate data, farmlevel practices and irrigation constraints) will enhance this integrated framework methodology and future climate impact assessments
the methodology employed in this study includes several stages. climate and hydrologic models are used to produce future scenarios of climate and land inundation (from floods and sea level rise) for various gcms and emissions scenarios. then, these are linked to crop models to produce physical estimates of climateand flood-affected potential crop yield changes for the three main rice varieties and wheat. these yield estimates are based on climate and biophysical data for 16 agroclimatic sub-regions in bangladesh and provide a picture of the geographic distribution of climate change impacts on the agriculture sector. then, the economic implications of these projected crop yield changes are assessed using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (cge) model. the cge model estimates their economy-wide implications, including changes in production and household consumption for different sectors, household groups and agro-climatic sub-regions in the country. additional impacts from extreme events are also considered here. as noted, multiple models are used in the study. these are among the best mathematical representations available of the physical and economic responses to a variety of exogenous changes (here, climate). however, like all modelling approaches, uncertainty exists as parameters may not be known with precision and functional forms may not be fully accurate. thus, careful sensitivity analysis and an understanding and appreciation of the limitations of these models (identified throughout the study) are required. further collection and analysis of critical input and output observations (e.g. climate data, farmlevel practices and irrigation constraints) will enhance this integrated framework methodology and future climate impact assessments.
Where do fulmars mainly forage?
because fulmars forage mainly over antarctic waters (ainley, o'connor boekelheide 1984; veit hunt 1991; ainley, ribic spear 1993
What did we test?
we test whether demographic parameters are affected negatively by warm events through a negative effect of sst and sea ice concentration on southern fulmar food resources (mainly krill, ridoux offredo 1989
What is the final process the model goes through?
finally, we model the population growth rate with leslie matrix models (caswell 2001) to understand the intrinsic southern fulmar population dynamics
l. (thompson ollason 2001), we examine whether southern fulmar population dynamics are influenced by the sea surface temperature and sea ice concentration anomalies. because fulmars forage mainly over antarctic waters (ainley, o'connor boekelheide 1984; veit hunt 1991; ainley, ribic spear 1993), we test whether demographic parameters are affected negatively by warm events through a negative effect of sst and sea ice concentration on southern fulmar food resources (mainly krill, ridoux offredo 1989). we also measure recruitment and immigration rate; a parameter that has rarely been measured in previous studies. finally, we model the population growth rate with leslie matrix models (caswell 2001) to understand the intrinsic southern fulmar population dynamics.
What do the studies, reports and recommendations suggest?
the studies, reports and recommendations that do exist suggest that there are major limitations to the application of existing response mechanisms for health risks from floods in many areas - limitations broadly in terms of information, organisation and funding. better efforts are needed to cope with floods that take place now
What are the major limitations to the application of existing response mechanisms for health risks from floods in many areas?
limitations broadly in terms of information, organisation and funding
What kind of efforts are needed to cope with floods that take place now?
this is required both in terms of preparedness of health and environmental health systems to cope with emergency demands and damage to infrastructure/services, and in terms of health promotion for at-risk populations via education, mobilization and community-based health risk preparedness. in integrating risk reduction into health system planning, it is important to recognise hazard or disaster as an inherent potential of pre-existing conditions, rather than
the studies, reports and recommendations that do exist suggest that there are major limitations to the application of existing response mechanisms for health risks from floods in many areas - limitations broadly in terms of information, organisation and funding. better efforts are needed to cope with floods that take place now. this is required both in terms of preparedness of health and environmental health systems to cope with emergency demands and damage to infrastructure/services, and in terms of health promotion for at-risk populations via education, mobilization and community-based health risk preparedness. in integrating risk reduction into health system planning, it is important to recognise hazard or disaster as an inherent potential of pre-existing conditions, rather than
The decline in aerobic scope beyond Topt (i.e. the downward trend of a Fry curve) reflects what?
the inability of the maximum cardiorespiratory capability to keep pace with these increasing tissue oxygen demands
The resultant mismatch between oxygen supply and oxygen demand forces animals to do what?
progressively switch to anaerobic metabolism to survive
Which is the task of the cardiorespiratory system?
more oxygen must be delivered to tissues
as temperature increases, exponentially more oxygen must be delivered to tissues, which is the task of the cardiorespiratory system. since maximum vo2 fails to increase beyond topt, the decline in aerobic scope beyond topt (i.e. the downward trend of a fry curve) therefore reflects the inability of the maximum cardiorespiratory capability to keep pace with these increasing tissue oxygen demands. by contrast, tcrit corresponds with a failure of the resting cardiorespiratory capability to keep pace with increasing tissue oxygen demands. the resultant mismatch between oxygen supply and oxygen demand forces animals to progressively switch to anaerobic metabolism to survive (portner, 2001; frederich and portner, 2000), perhaps causing an acceleration of cardiorespiratory collapse (farrell et al., 2008) and the rightward skew often seen in fry curves. at present, cardiorespiratory information pertaining to the collapse of aerobic scope during warming is most abundant for salmonids. the data are examined below within the context of the cardiorespiratory oxygen cascade in order to explore why active vo2 does not increase beyond topt and why minimum vo2 collapses at tcrit.
When does Timescale climate change occur?
timescale climate change occurs on timescales much longer than the time horizons considered in everyday life
Why is timescale important for studying climate impacts?
there is a need for a sufficient timescale to illustrate climatic impacts on the icons examined. for example, when investigating the impact of climate change on polar bears, the iucn red list criteria states that any projection of climate change impacts on biodiversity must be over a minimum 10 years or three generations
What is the life span of a polar bear?
polar bears live to an average of between 15 and 18 years
timescale climate change occurs on timescales much longer than the time horizons considered in everyday life stehr and von storch, 1995 ). lorenzoni et al. (2000) state that it is 'self-evident but rarely acknowledged' that individuals think on the basis of extremely short time horizons compared to that on which scientists project impacts of climate change. however, there is a need for a sufficient timescale to illustrate climatic impacts on the icons examined. for example, when investigating the impact of climate change on polar bears, the iucn red list criteria states that any projection of climate change impacts on biodiversity must be over a minimum 10 years or three generations, whichever is longer akc , akaya et al., 2006 ). since polar bears live to an average of between 15 and 18 years polar bear specialist group, 2006 there is a need to look over a timescale of at least 45 years. there is then a trade-off between, on the one hand, the timescale over which individuals can conceptualise (relatively short) and, on the other, the potential loss of saliency when using a long timescale and a sufficient timeframe needed to illustrate climatic impacts on the icons (relatively long). from the few studies that investigate this phenomenon (e.g. tonn et al., 2006; drottz-sjo"berg, 2006 ), it would appear that 50 years forms an upper limit of the ability to conceptualise distant times. considering impacts to 2050 is therefore a compromise between these two opposing factors.
What subject are we evaluating?
we examined annular variations in sea level pressure simulated by 14 coupled model ensembles of 20th and 21st century clima
which subject of the f figure 9?
annular slp pc averaged over the winter
we examined annular variations in sea level pressure simulated by 14 coupled model ensembles of 20th and 21st century climate, submitted to the ipcc ar4 model archive. the annular pattern of slp simulated by the models is highly correlated with spatial variations of the observed pattern during the late 20th century, but the simulated annular variability represents too large a fraction of the total temporal variability within each hemisphere. figure 9. annular slp pc averaged over the winter (december-february) following a tropical volcanic eruption, composited over the eruptions of krakatoa, santa maria, agung, el chicho'n, and pinatubo. the observed value is in gray, averages over models with and without volcanic forcing are in red and light red, respectively, and blue and light blue indicate the values for individual models with and without volcanic forcing. the uncertainty range for each model is indicated by a two-sided student-t test at the 95% confidence level. figure 10. as in figure 8, except that the multimodel ensemble annular pc is composited according to whether the model includes (red) or omits (blue) forcing by stratospheric ozone. each composite has zero mean between 1900 and 1970. a filtered version of the observed (hadslp1) slp pc is in black.
What is the argument to achieve emissions reduction targets and inform climate mitigation policies?
to achieve emissions reduction targets and inform climate mitigation policies, we argue that a comprehensive strategy is necessary
to achieve emissions reduction targets and inform climate mitigation policies, we argue that a comprehensive strategy is necessary, one that recognizes the role of - and implements effective, sciencedriven management practices in - natural ecosystems, including coastal wetlands. although reducing fossilfuel- based ghg emissions is a direct means to this end, avoided emissions can be gained by protecting habitats, some of which may also offer sequestrationrelated services. however, much of the relevant ecosystemspecific scientific data regarding carbon storage, sequestration rates, and anthropogenic emissions is neither easily accessible to decision makers nor comparable across studies and habitats, thereby complicating informed policy discussions. to address this issue, we briefly summarize the
what is the full meaning of ASAR?
advanced synthetic aperture radar (asar
which period ASAR scenes selected?
in the current study, six ers-1 and -2 scenes were selected for the period 1992-2000, and eight asar scenes were selected for the period 2003-present
write a short note about ERS?
the european remote-sensing satellites have provided the glaciological community with fine-resolution radar data since the launch of ers-1 in 1992. more recently, the launch of the advanced synthetic aperture radar (asar) sensor (on board the envisat satellite) has continued the systematic collection of c-band data (wavelength 5-7 cm), giving a well-stocked archive for the karakoram region for the previous 16 years. in the current study, six ers-1 and -2 scenes were selected for the period 1992-2000, and eight asar scenes were selected for the period 2003-present
the european remote-sensing satellites have provided the glaciological community with fine-resolution radar data since the launch of ers-1 in 1992. more recently, the launch of the advanced synthetic aperture radar (asar) sensor (on board the envisat satellite) has continued the systematic collection of c-band data (wavelength 5-7 cm), giving a well-stocked archive for the karakoram region for the previous 16 years. in the current study, six ers-1 and -2 scenes were selected for the period 1992-2000, and eight asar scenes were selected for the period 2003-present. the resolutions of the raw data were approximately 7.9 m (range)  4.0 m (azimuth), equating to 20-30 m in ground range at scene centre. images were selected to provide pairs covering annual (single year), summer (march/april to august/september), and winter (august/september to march/april) periods (table 1). all data were selected from the same orbit, ensuring the minimum spatial baseline and consistent imaging conditions.
What will increase our ability to predict the future behavior of ecosystems?
understanding the factors governing the response of biodiversity to extreme weather events
What are two issues that affect experimental research on extreme weather ?
1) timing of events, (2) ecological memory, induced tolerance, and time lags in response, (3) hidden players (sensu thompson et al 2001), (4) quality of local climate data, including past records and future model predictions, and (5) a historical control
What is one of the next great challenges in the life and environmental sciences?
understanding the factors governing the response of biodiversity to extreme weather events
understanding the factors governing the response of biodiversity to extreme weather events will increase our ability to predict the future behavior of ecosystems. this is one of the next great challenges in the life and environmental sciences. so far, gradual climatic trends such as global warming and increasing levels of co2 have been studied in much more detail than have alterations in sudden events. thus, there is a substantial lack of knowledge on how extreme weather events affect biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. here, we discuss emerging research challenges. aside from general frontiers in ecology, experimental research on extreme weather events needs to address five additional issues: (1) timing of events, (2) ecological memory, induced tolerance, and time lags in response, (3) hidden players (sensu thompson et al 2001), (4) quality of local climate data, including past records and future model predictions, and (5) a historical control. after discussing these emerging
Explain about greenhouse gas emisiion?
forest clearing and degradation account for roughly 15% of global greenhouse gas emissions, more than all the cars, trains, planes, ships, and trucks on earth [1,2
Why forest nations must develop policies and institutions ?
for redd to succeed, forest nations must develop policies and institutions to reduce and eventually eliminate forest clearing and degradation one of the most straightforward components of such a program is also one of the oldest and most reliable tricks in the conservation book: protected areas
How ILPAs  reduce deforestation rate?
while ilpas typically reduce rates of deforestation compared to surrounding areas [14-18], deforestation (with resulting greenhouse gas [ghg] emissions) often continues within them, especially inside those that lack sufficient funding, management capacity, or political backing these facts suggest an attractive but overlooked opportunity to reduce ghg emissions: creating new ilpas and strengthening existing ones here, we evaluate the case for this potential redd strategy
forest clearing and degradation account for roughly 15% of global greenhouse gas emissions, more than all the cars, trains, planes, ships, and trucks on earth [1,2]. this is simply too big a piece of the problem to ignore; fail to reduce it and we will fail to stabilize our climate although the recent climate summit in copenhagen failed to produce a legally binding treaty, the importance of forest conservation in mitigating climate change was a rare point of agreement between developed and developing countries and is emphasized in the resulting copenhagen accord [4,5]. language from the meeting calls for developing countries to reduce emissions from deforestation and degradation (nicknamed redd), and for wealthy nations to compensate them for doing so [4,6-8]. for redd to succeed, forest nations must develop policies and institutions to reduce and eventually eliminate forest clearing and degradation one of the most straightforward components of such a program is also one of the oldest and most reliable tricks in the conservation book: protected areas. indigenous lands and other protected areas (hereafter ilpas [10-12])-- created to safeguard land rights, indigenous livelihoods, biodiversity, and other values-- contain more than 312 billion tons of carbon (gtc) crucially, and paradoxically, this ''protected carbon'' is not entirely protected. while ilpas typically reduce rates of deforestation compared to surrounding areas [14-18], deforestation (with resulting greenhouse gas [ghg] emissions) often continues within them, especially inside those that lack sufficient funding, management capacity, or political backing these facts suggest an attractive but overlooked opportunity to reduce ghg emissions: creating new ilpas and strengthening existing ones here, we evaluate the case for this potential redd strategy. we focus on the amazon basin given its importance for global biodiversity, its enormous carbon stocks, and its advanced network of indigenous lands and other protected areas [16,21].
Is it inevitable or necessary about this outcome?
there is nothing inevitable or necessary about this outcome
How to dispel quantum?
o dispel quantum mechanic's measurement problem (by, say, identifying the "hidden variables" that determine which of the two slits through which the photon must pass, whether we are watching or not) would demonstrate the inadequacy (or "incompleteness") of quantum mechanics. but the measurement problem that confronts the science of science communication, while connected to real-world dynamics of consequence and not merely the imperfect methods used to study them
What is the utility of science?
the value of a theory of physics is measured by its power to discern laws of nature that are permanent and immutable. the utility of recognizing the "science-of-science-communication measurement problem," in contrast, will depend on the contribution that using that theory can ultimately make to its own destruction
there is nothing inevitable or necessary about this outcome. in other domains, most noticeably the teaching of evolutionary science, the use of valid empirical methods has identified means of disentangling the question of " what do you know? " from the question " who are you; whose side are you on? ," thereby making it possible for individuals of diverse cultural identities to use their reason to participate in the insights of science. climate-science communicators need to learn how to do this too, not only in the classroom but in the public spaces in which we engage climate science as citizens. indeed, the results of the "climate-science comprehension" study i've described supports the conclusion that ordinary citizens of all political outlooks already know the core insights of climate science. if they can be freed of the ugly, illiberal dynamics that force them to choose between exploiting what they know and expressing who they are, there is every reason to believe that they will demand that democratically accountable representatives use the best available evidence to promote their collective well-being. indeed, this is happening, although on a regrettably tiny scale, in regions like southeast florida. though i've used the "measurement problem" framework to extract insight from empirical evidence--of both real-world and laboratory varieties--nothing in fact depends on accepting the framework. like "collapsing wave functions," "superposition," and similar devices in one particular rendering of quantum physics, the various elements of the science-of-science-communication measurement problem ("dualistic reasoners," "communicative interference," "disentanglement," etc.) are not being held forth as "real things" that are "happening" somewhere. they are a set of pictures intended to help us visualize processes that cannot be observed and likely do not even admit of being truly seen. the value of the pictures lies in whether they are useful to us, at least for a time, in forming a reliable mental apprehension of how those dynamics affect our world, in predicting what is likely to happen to us as we interact with them, and in empowering us to do things that make our world better. i think the science-of-science-communication measurement problem can serve that function, and do so much better than myriad other theories ("bounded rationality," "terror management," "system justification," etc.) that also can be appraised only for their explanatory, predictive, and prescriptive utility. but what is imperative is to make sense of --and stop ignoring--observable, consequential features of our experience. if there are better frameworks, or simply equivalent but different ones, that help to achieve this goal, then they should be embraced instead. but there is one final important element of the theoretical framework i have proposed that would need to be represented by an appropriate counterpart within any alternative. it is a component of the framework that emphasizes not a parallel in the measurement problems of the science of science communication and quantum physics but a critical difference between them. the insolubility of quantum mechanics' measurement problem is fundamental to the work that this construct and all the ones related to it ("the uncertainty principle," "quantum entanglement," and the like) do in that theory. to dispel quantum mechanic's measurement problem (by, say, identifying the "hidden variables" that determine which of the two slits through which the photon must pass, whether we are watching or not) would demonstrate the inadequacy (or "incompleteness") of quantum mechanics. but the measurement problem that confronts the science of science communication, while connected to real-world dynamics of consequence and not merely the imperfect methods used to study them, can be overcome. the dynamics that this measurement problem comprises are ones generated by the behavior of conscious, reasoning, acting human beings. they can choose to act differently, if they can figure out how. the value of a theory of physics is measured by its power to discern laws of nature that are permanent and immutable. the utility of recognizing the "science-of-science-communication measurement problem," in contrast, will depend on the contribution that using that theory can ultimately make to its own destruction.
Which country heavy rain fall and frequency?
fig. 7. annual and summer (djf) rainfall (solid lines) and frequency of very heavy rains (dashed lines) over the eastern half of south africa (region of area averaging is shown darkened in the map). the linear trend estimates for an increase in the annual and summer frequency of very heavy precipitation [44% (100 yr) 1and 42% (100 yr) 1] are statistically significant at the 0.05 and 0.10 levels, respectively. fig. 8. annual rainfall (solid lines) and frequency of very heavy rains (dashed lines) over three regions in brazil, uruguay, and adjacent argentinean and paraguay areas (regions are hatched in the map). linear trend estimates for increases in the annual frequency of very heavy precipitation in the nord-este (1911-2001) and northern subtropics (1941-2001) are statistically significant at the 0.05 level or higher
Define: annual and summer frequency  of very heavy precipitation?
the linear trend estimates for an increase in the annual and summer frequency of very heavy precipitation [44% (100 yr) 1and 42% (100 yr) 1] are statistically significant at the 0.05 and 0.10 levels, respectively
annual frequency of very heavy precipitation  statistically evulation ?
linear trend estimates for increases in the annual frequency of very heavy precipitation in the nord-este (1911-2001) and northern subtropics (1941-2001) are statistically significant at the 0.05 level or higher
fig. 7. annual and summer (djf) rainfall (solid lines) and frequency of very heavy rains (dashed lines) over the eastern half of south africa (region of area averaging is shown darkened in the map). the linear trend estimates for an increase in the annual and summer frequency of very heavy precipitation [44% (100 yr) 1and 42% (100 yr) 1] are statistically significant at the 0.05 and 0.10 levels, respectively. fig. 8. annual rainfall (solid lines) and frequency of very heavy rains (dashed lines) over three regions in brazil, uruguay, and adjacent argentinean and paraguay areas (regions are hatched in the map). linear trend estimates for increases in the annual frequency of very heavy precipitation in the nord-este (1911-2001) and northern subtropics (1941-2001) are statistically significant at the 0.05 level or higher.
What made impacts in humanity?
the wide consensus among the scientific community that climate is changing and will almost certainly produce detrimental impacts for humanity
What is the tool present for producing climate predictions?
atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (aogcms) are state-of-the-art tools for producing climate predictions based on our best understanding of the radiative effects of co2
Whether AOGCMs is limited?
the computational demands of aogcms preclude or limit
the wide consensus among the scientific community that climate is changing and will almost certainly produce detrimental impacts for humanity [from intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) fourth assessment report (ar4; meehl et al. 2007)] means that attention is increasingly turning to evaluating the magnitude of those impacts and possible policies to reduce them. atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (aogcms) are state-of-the-art tools for producing climate predictions based on our best understanding of the radiative effects of co2 and other anthropogenic forcing agents and the complex dynamical feedbacks of the earth's climate system. however, the computational demands of aogcms preclude or limit
What might be helpful in the future?
a manual of methods and tools for climate risk assessment
Why would it be better to carry out a number of climate risk analyses in association with specific projects?
to gain a variety of practical experiences, both in the risk assessments themselves, and in incorporating their results in project design
What was proposed instead of "leaping into he classification of all of the Bank's projects?"
a pilot phase to gain experience
a manual of methods and tools for climate risk assessment might be helpful in the future (and some of them already exist, such as undp 2004, willows and connell eds. 2003, stratus 1999, feenstra et al. 1998, carter et al. 1994, and at the regional level sopac 2002 and acccc 2003). at this stage however, it is probably better to carry out a number of climate risk analyses in association with specific projects to gain a variety of practical experiences, both in the risk assessments themselves, and in incorporating their results in project design. hence, rather than just leaping into the classification of all of the bank's projects, we propose a pilot phase to gain experience, which could start in climate risk hotspot s, as discussed in the next section. as it accumulates, such know-how can be incorporated in the climate risk management knowledge base.
If individuals maximise expected utility, who is more risk averse? Individuals with higher or lower amounts of e?
first, if individuals are assumed to maximise expected utility, then individuals with higher e are more risk averse than individuals with lower e (because a consumption loss reduces utility more than an equivalent consumption gain increases utility
What does social welfare consist of?
second, if social welfare is assumed to be the simple sum of agents' utilities, then e is also effectively a measure of society's aversion to inequality of consumption
What does a high e imply?
in contrast, a high e implies that policy should take account of relative wealth differences between generations
first, if individuals are assumed to maximise expected utility, then individuals with higher e are more risk averse than individuals with lower e (because a consumption loss reduces utility more than an equivalent consumption gain increases utility). higher e not only implies higher individual risk aversion, but also more risk-averse climate policy, implying greater spending now to reduce the future risks of climate impacts. second, if social welfare is assumed to be the simple sum of agents' utilities, then e is also effectively a measure of society's aversion to inequality of consumption.13as noted above, e 1 implies that ps1 is valued ten times higher if it accrues to someone with one-tenth of the income. or, equivalently, a given per cent increase in consumption is taken to generate the same utility for rich and poor people (because the absolute increase is much higher for the rich person). employing higher e places much greater weight on the consumption of the poor, and effectively produces a higher social aversion to inequality in consumption. third, when utilities are additive over time periods, e also governs aversion to inequality in consumption over time, or between different generations. a low e implies that policy should not be particularly concerned with equalising consumption between generations. in contrast, a high e implies that policy should take account of relative wealth differences between generations. as future generations are expected to be wealthier than the current generation, in this context high e implies the current (poor) generation should not spend much on preventing climate impacts to the future (rich) generations. because e simultaneously affects aversion to risk, spatial inequality and intertemporal inequality, it is not immediately obvious whether increasing e produces an increase or decrease in the present value of climate impacts. on the one hand, higher e implies greater risk aversion, pointing to much greater concern about the climate change and the associated risk of impacts. on the other hand, higher e reduces the weight placed on the consumption of the (future) rich, and increases the weight placed on emission reductions.
Who do we thank from the german embassy
hans-ulrich von schroeter
These individuals donated their time to do what?
evaluate the videos and posters
we thank the german government, in particular, hans-ulrich von schroeter from the german embassy's german information center, and david murdoch, pittsburgh's honorary consul for the federal republic of germany. we could not have staged this symposium without their contributions. we are grateful to joe grabowski, department of chemistry; juan manfredi, office of the provost; mark redfern, school of engineering; alberta sbragia, office of the provost; and dan skrovanek, strategic corporate research. these individuals donated their time to evaluate the videos and posters. finally, and certainly not least, we thank the undergraduate students who participated in this event. these students, and their faculty mentors, conducted the research that made this event possible. the summaries and s included in this program represent months, if not years, of their effort.
What does the use of central heating reduce?
the incidence of winter deaths
What conditions are improved by insulating homes?
helps to improve conditions for health and well-being
In New Zealand, what type of people were found to have health benefits by insulating their homes?
occupants with respiratory conditions
the use of central heating seems to reduce the incidence of winter deaths. the increased use of domestic central heating has been cited as the main reason for the decreasing excess winter mortality apparent in many developed countries, 28 although the direct evidence is possibly inconclusive. 29 in britain, where central heating ownership spread later than in countries with very cold winters such as canada, norway and sweden, excess winter mortality has begun to decrease later than in those countries and, as described, remains higher. the ability to pay to run the central heating, once it is in the building, would obviously be key to the resultant indoor temperature and its effect on health, and partly depends on the degree of insulation provided by the building fabric. insulating homes helps to improve conditions for health and well-being. evidence from a housing intervention study in new zealand has shown health benefits for housing occupants with respiratory conditions. installing insulation led to significantly warmer and drier homes, significantly improved self-reported health and fewer general practitioners ' visits and hospital admissions for respiratory conditions. 30
what does kumar assess?
kumar assesses the impact of climate change by looking at how it affects the net revenue from agriculture
state example of climate change idea that farmers adopt?
switching crop types as climate changes
what does kumar estimates?
kumar estimates the yearly impact of climate change at the district level, and then uses these findings to derive a national picture. in order to gain further insights, kumar assesses a number of climate scenarios
kumar assesses the impact of climate change by looking at how it affects the net revenue from agriculture. using districts as units of analysis, his assessment incorporates the impact that climate change could have on a range of different crops and takes into account the behaviour of farmers (e.g. switching crop types as climate changes). kumar includes the impact of spatial features into his assessment by looking at the crosseffects of characteristics of neighboring districts. kumar estimates the yearly impact of climate change at the district level, and then uses these findings to derive a national picture. in order to gain further insights, kumar assesses a number of climate scenarios.
What effect has the developmentalist paradigm had on poverty?
there is evidence at the global scale that the developmentalist paradigm, played out through global economic growth and development, has lifted many people across the world out of poverty, measured in terms of rising gdp per capita
What costs have been high?
the costs to the environment have been high, including the degradation and loss of ecosystem services (millennium ecosystem assessment, 2005
What have economic analysis shown of key changes, including climate change?
the economic analysis of key changes, including climate change, overfishing and mangrove loss, shows that poor countries bear a disproportionate burden of the total damage costs compared with their share of damaging activity, highlighting the so-called 'ecological debt of nations' (srinivasan et al., 2008; turner and fisher, 2008
there is evidence at the global scale that the developmentalist paradigm, played out through global economic growth and development, has lifted many people across the world out of poverty, measured in terms of rising gdp per capita. however, this has had severe costs, and both costs and benefits have been unequally and inequitably distributed. the costs to the environment have been high, including the degradation and loss of ecosystem services (millennium ecosystem assessment, 2005). the economic analysis of key changes, including climate change, overfishing and mangrove loss, shows that poor countries bear a disproportionate burden of the total damage costs compared with their share of damaging activity, highlighting the so-called 'ecological debt of nations' (srinivasan et al., 2008; turner and fisher, 2008). development futures in the context of climate change 745 development futures in the context of climate change 745
What are the factors that define Municipal adaptive capacity?
municipal adaptive capacity is a function of various factors: the range of available technological options; the available resources and their distribution across the municipal population; the structure of critical institutions and the criteria for decisionmaking; the human and social infrastructures; the access to risk-spreading mechanisms; the ability of decision-makers to manage credible information and their own credibility; the public's perception of both the source of the impact and its significance to its local manifestations
What is Planned Adaptation?
the greater the adaptive capacity, the larger is the set of adaptation options. this is why this study deals with planned anticipatory institutional adaptation that, for short, we call planned adaptation
What is a municipal adaptive capacity or resilience?
a municipality's ability to develop and implement a comprehensive strategy towards climate change may be called its adaptive capacity or resilience
a municipality's ability to develop and implement a comprehensive strategy towards climate change may be called its adaptive capacity or resilience. municipal adaptive capacity is a function of various factors: the range of available technological options; the available resources and their distribution across the municipal population; the structure of critical institutions and the criteria for decisionmaking; the human and social infrastructures; the access to risk-spreading mechanisms; the ability of decision-makers to manage credible information and their own credibility; the public's perception of both the source of the impact and its significance to its local manifestations (yohe et al., 2002). the greater the adaptive capacity, the larger is the set of adaptation options. this is why this study deals with planned anticipatory institutional adaptation that, for short, we call planned adaptation. it does not deal with simply reactive adaptation whose options are much more restricted. the lower the adaptive capacity, the higher is the vulnerability.5
What has been suggested to be added the Red List criteria?
an index of threat be added to the red list criteria
The IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria are sensitive enough to detect what?
to detect changes in the threat status of species
What does the article say is currently underutilized in the current IUCN Red List Assessment?
the consideration of future threats is underutilized in current iucn red list assessments
comparing the red list status of the proteaceae excluding and including future threats highlights how many more threatened species could potentially be found in the cfr if we consider future threats to biodiversity. we suggest that the consideration of future threats is underutilized in current iucn red list assessments (burgman, 2002), although the red list criteria explicitly allow for this (iucn, 2001, 2003). for proactive conservation planning and action, this information could be vital, but a lack of data or uncertainty about future threats may be reasons for not considering them. the of a separate red list reporting criterion for species potentially affected by future threats, particularly climate change, could be a solution to this problem. our methodology needs to be further developed, but it could provide a first protocol for how to assess potential impacts of future threats. we generally consider the iucn red list categories and criteria sensitive enough to detect changes in the threat status of species. it has been noticed, however, that changes in the threat status of species are often caused by changes in the knowledge of taxonomic classification or geographic distribution rather than actual changes in extinction risk (burgman, 2002; possingham et al ., 2002; donaldson, 2004), which is not the case in our study. both the interdependent nature and clear-cut thresholds of some red list criteria, and our simplistic, computer-based red listing approach could however mask more subtle changes than the ones reported here. it is not easy to identify whether this would be because of flaws in our red listing approach or in the red list criteria. the application of criterion a, which requires information on population reduction over specific timeframes (iucn, 2001, 2003), poses probably the biggest problem, as detailed spatiotemporal information on the history of habitat transformation is lacking. this is probably the case in many parts of the world. in the absence of alternatives, it is also difficult to determine whether or not the proportion of transformed areas in species ranges is an appropriate surrogate for population reduction under the criteria a and b. the variability and uncertainty of most species data make consistent red list assessments already difficult (akc,akaya et al ., 2000). incorporating future threats into red list assessments adds further uncertainty, which is linked to the land use and climate change predictions, for instance. nonetheless, it has been suggested that an index of threat be added to the red list criteria, for example human population density (harcourt parks,
Are more people staring to believe in climate change?
climate change and global warming scenarios, once viewed as the wild prophecies of a small band of environmental scientists, are now accepted as facts by the broader scientific community and by society at large
What areas will climate change inevitably affect?
there is no doubt that these environmental changes will impact natural ecosystems in one way or another. weather and climate affect several ecological processes, from the performance of individual organisms, to the dynamics of populations and the distribution of species
Have the affects been studied yet?
weather and climate affect several ecological processes, from the performance of individual organisms, to the dynamics of populations and the distribution of species. this has been clearly illustrated by a series of recent studies that have linked changes in ecosystem properties and functions with large-scale climate fluctuations (holmgren et al. 2001; mysterud et al. 2001
climate change and global warming scenarios, once viewed as the wild prophecies of a small band of environmental scientists, are now accepted as facts by the broader scientific community and by society at large. the predictions for the next few decades include changes in air and sea surface temperatures, coupled with changes in precipitation, sea level, and ocean salinity and circulation patterns. there is no doubt that these environmental changes will impact natural ecosystems in one way or another. weather and climate affect several ecological processes, from the performance of individual organisms, to the dynamics of populations and the distribution of species. this has been clearly illustrated by a series of recent studies that have linked changes in ecosystem properties and functions with large-scale climate fluctuations (holmgren et al. 2001; mysterud et al. 2001;
What is affecting biodervisity?
anthropogenic climate change is affecting biodiversity
Which models are applied for forecasting climate change impacts on species geographic ranges?
species distribution models (sdms) are increasingly applied for forecasting climate change impacts on species geographic ranges
Which will be reviewed in this discuss?
in this review we discuss the application of sdms in predicting the impacts of climate change on biodiversity with special reference to the species-rich south west australian floristic region and south african cape floristic region
increasing evidence shows that anthropogenic climate change is affecting biodiversity. reducing or stabilizing greenhouse gas emissions may slow global warming, but past emissions will continue to contribute to further unavoidable warming for more than a century. with obvious signs of difficulties in achieving effective mitigation worldwide in the short term at least, sound scientific predictions of future impacts on biodiversity will be required to guide conservation planning and adaptation. this is especially true in mediterranean type ecosystems that are projected to be among the most significantly affected by anthropogenic climate change, and show the highest levels of confidence in rainfall projections. multiple methods are available for projecting the consequences of climate change on the main unit of interest - the species - with each method having strengths and weaknesses. species distribution models (sdms) are increasingly applied for forecasting climate change impacts on species geographic ranges. aggregation of models for different species allows inferences of impacts on biodiversity, though excluding the effects of species interactions. the modelling approach is based on several further assumptions and projections and should be treated cautiously. in the absence of comparable approaches that address large numbers of species, sdms remain valuable in estimating the vulnerability of species. in this review we discuss the application of sdms in predicting the impacts of climate change on biodiversity with special reference to the species-rich south west australian floristic region and south african cape floristic region. we discuss the advantages and challenges in applying sdms in biodiverse regions with high levels of endemicity, and how a similar biogeographical history in both regions may assist us in understanding their vulnerability to climate change. we suggest how the process of predicting the impacts of climate change on biodiversity with sdms can be improved and emphasize the role of field monitoring and experiments in validating the predictions of sdms. key words: biodiversity hotspot, climate change risk assessment, mediterranean type ecosystem, species distribution modelling. aec_2044 374..391
One study found that farmers in India with fewer risk coping mechanisms invested in what?
more effort in acquiring accurate weather prediction information
According to the first study, what would a farmer do if they believe the monsoon will start later?
more likely to plant later
What event shifted older farmers toward greater confidence in using climate projections in farming?
the 1997-98 el nino
impact of policy for on-farm decision-making because sensitivity to climate risks decreases with increasing wealth, policies to reduce the effective level of climate risk, such as investing in more accurate climate forecasts and/or providing insurance to allow for smoothing of consumption and investment, should be particularly beneficial for poor farmers. empirical studies, however, offer conflicting assessments of the potential for either policy to impact the decision-making process of the poor. gine, townsend, and vickery (2007) found that farmers in india with fewer risk coping mechanisms invested more effort in acquiring accurate weather prediction information. this was because: ".. farmers who believe the monsoon will start later are also more likely to plant later. likewise, they are less likely to replant, have purchased a lower share of total production inputs before the onset of the monsoon and are more likely to buy weather insurance, since according to their beliefs, the probability of a payout is higher. all of these findings provide strong evidence that individuals make decisions according to their prior expectations, even when controlling for self-reported proxies of risk aversion, discount rates and the actual start of the monsoon. (gine, townsend, and vickery 2007, 5)" other studies, however, have concluded that farmers give relatively little weight to climate forecasts when making planting decisions due to poor spatial and temporal resolution, and lack of trust for the institution issuing the forecast. in a case study of 200 farmers in argentina, letson and co-authors (2001) found that farmers rely on price expectations (33%), crop rotation patterns (22%), and climate projections (16%) in making planting decisions. older farmers relied less on climate projections, but experience farming during the 1997-98 el nino event shifted farmers towards a greater confidence in climate projections. this suggests that farmers
Describe the term "flood" in two sentences.
the term 'flood' covers a spectrum of events of different magnitude and with many different causes. floods vary according to regularity, speed of onset, velocity and depth of water, spatial and temporal scale; they may originate from rainfall precipitation events of long or short duration or from inundation of coastal lands by storm-driven tides
Which type of floods have a high risk of mortality due to drowning and injury in all regions?
mortality from drowning and injury tends to be low relative to the extent of inundation for slow-onset or seasonal floods, but becomes a more significant risk in the case of flash floods and storm surges in all regions
With which types of floods are infectious diseases mostly associated?
infectious disease outcomes, on the other hand, tend to be associated with prolonged persistence of flood waters in and around homes, often arising from slow-onset events
the term 'flood' covers a spectrum of events of different magnitude and with many different causes. floods vary according to regularity, speed of onset, velocity and depth of water, spatial and temporal scale; they may originate from rainfall precipitation events of long or short duration or from inundation of coastal lands by storm-driven tides. we cannot make definitive statements about different flood types and levels of health outcome, but our analysis of available literature confirms some broad patterns. for example, mortality from drowning and injury tends to be low relative to the extent of inundation for slow-onset or seasonal floods, but becomes a more significant risk in the case of flash floods and storm surges in all regions. infectious disease outcomes, on the other hand, tend to be associated with prolonged persistence of flood waters in and around homes, often arising from slow-onset events.
What has an impact on the calculation of the variance?
the proportion of businesses that do not give optimistic or pessimistic responses (that is, those that do not expect any changes) has an impact on the calculation of the variance
How the standard error of the index also decreases?
if the proportion of businesses that express a neutral position increases, then the variance decreases and, therefore, the standard error of the index also decreases
Why there is a relationship between the estimated index (the difference between the optimists and pessimists) and the neutral responses?
there is a relationship between the estimated index (the difference between the optimists and pessimists) and the neutral responses because these three proportions add to the value of one
this method of approximating the standard error makes it easy to interpret what occurs for various indices. for example, if the index increases in its absolute value, then the variance decreases. however, the proportion of businesses that do not give optimistic or pessimistic responses (that is, those that do not expect any changes) has an impact on the calculation of the variance. if the proportion of businesses that express a neutral position increases, then the variance decreases and, therefore, the standard error of the index also decreases obviously, there is a relationship between the estimated index (the difference between the optimists and pessimists) and the neutral responses because these three proportions add to the value of one. in graph 1, the estimated standard error is illustrated by various values of the estimated index. it has been calculated from the proportion of businesses that maintain a neutral position. graph 1. approximate standard error for different index values estimated (in absolute value)
What are the four distinct research and policy communities that have taken on the challenge of reducing socio-economic vulnerability?
the challenge of reducing socio-economic vulnerability to climate and weather-related hazards has been taken on by four distinct research and policy communities: * disaster risk reduction; * climate change adaptation; * environmental management; and * poverty reduction
How have the four communities been mostly developed and operated?
these communities have largely developed and operated independently from each other
How many exercises are proposed that would help structure a multi-community dialogue and learning process?
following this discussion, we propose three exercises that would help structure a multi-community dialogue and learning process
over the past few decades, the challenge of reducing socio-economic vulnerability to climate and weather-related hazards has been taken on by four distinct research and policy communities: * disaster risk reduction; * climate change adaptation; * environmental management; and * poverty reduction. these communities have largely developed and operated independently from each other. calls for better collaboration are increasing and there is an emerging perceived need to learn from one another and to identify opportunities to develop a joint agenda. based on a review of the literature and our own experiences, we discuss some of the key communalities and differences between two of these communities, climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction (see box 1 ), in relation to five provocative statements. following this discussion, we propose three exercises that would help structure a multi-community dialogue and learning process. the broader context of planning
This paper has reviewed what?
this paper has reviewed some of the important interactions among organisms, cbcs, and biophysical properties of ecosystems. many of the core ideas presented here translate, to varying degrees, to other biogeochemical cycles - as well as to aquatic ecosystems - as described in several of the other articles in this issue of frontiers
What we have learned about CBCs through observations?
although we have learned a great deal about cbcs through observations and experiments, there remain considerable uncertainties in the interactions between cbcs, climate change, and other aspects of global change. is there a threshold temperature (ie a tipping point
What types of plant and microbial species or functional groups exhibit flexible stoichiometries that enable adaptation rather than loss from extant communities, and how would adaptation versus community change affect the resiliency of ecosystems to biogeochemical and climatic change?
answers to these questions become increasingly important in light of the expected growth of the human population - at least 2 to 3 billion more individuals this century - and the rapid pace of socioeconomic development that will result in escalating rates of co2 production, faster rates of climate change, and more n and p released to the environment
this paper has reviewed some of the important interactions among organisms, cbcs, and biophysical properties of ecosystems. many of the core ideas presented here translate, to varying degrees, to other biogeochemical cycles - as well as to aquatic ecosystems - as described in several of the other articles in this issue of frontiers although we have learned a great deal about cbcs through observations and experiments, there remain considerable uncertainties in the interactions between cbcs, climate change, and other aspects of global change. is there a threshold temperature (ie a tipping point) above which tracegas losses of c and n to the atmosphere accelerate substantially faster than c gains in plant biomass, resulting in runaway global warming? over what spatial and temporal scales will n2-fixing organisms respond to multiple drivers of global change, including rising co2, atmospheric n deposition, and wildfires? what types of plant and microbial species or functional groups exhibit flexible stoichiometries that enable adaptation rather than loss from extant communities, and how would adaptation versus community change affect the resiliency of ecosystems to biogeochemical and climatic change? answers to these questions become increasingly important in light of the expected growth of the human population - at least 2 to 3 billion more individuals this century - and the rapid pace of socioeconomic development that will result in escalating rates of co2 production, faster rates of climate change, and more n and p released to the environment.
hown many poor people are there in the planet?
of the planet's 1.3 billion poor people
where are these poor people located?
at least 90% of them are located in asia and sub-saharan africa. about 60% of these poor people are dependent on livestock for some part of their livelihoods (thornton et al., 2002
where does the climate change may have most impact?
climate change is likely to have major impacts on poor livestock keepers and on the ecosystems goods and services on which they depend
of the planet's 1.3 billion poor people, at least 90% of them are located in asia and sub-saharan africa. about 60% of these poor people are dependent on livestock for some part of their livelihoods (thornton et al., 2002; thomas and rangnekar, 2004). climate change is likely to have major impacts on poor livestock keepers and on the ecosystems goods and services on which they depend. these impacts will include changes in the productivity of rain-fed crops and forage, reduced water availability and more widespread water shortages, and changing severity and distribution of important human, livestock and crop diseases. major changes can thus be
Why has Augustenborg experienced flooding in recent decades?
 and frequently suffered from floods caused by overflowing drainage systems
When did Augustenborg undergo regeneration?
augustenborg underwent a significant regeneration between 1998 and 2002
What drivers caused the regeneration scheme?
the main drivers for this regeneration initiative were the difficult social and economic situation in the neighbourhood, flood risk management, waste management and biodiversity improvement
the neighbourhood of augustenborg (malmo, sweden) has experienced periods of socio-economic decline in recent decades, and frequently suffered from floods caused by overflowing drainage systems. augustenborg underwent a significant regeneration between 1998 and 2002. the main drivers for this regeneration initiative were the difficult social and economic situation in the neighbourhood, flood risk management, waste management and biodiversity improvement. significant physical changes in infrastructure took place as a result, focusing on the creation of sustainable urban drainage systems, including ditches, retention ponds, green roofs and green spaces. the project was carried out collaboratively by the city council and a social housing company, with extensive participation of the residents in augustenborg. the project has resulted in a successful outcome as the rainwater runoff rates have decreased by half, and the increase in green space has improved the image of the area.
Why is the consequence of flooding not always negative?
the consequences of flooding are by no means solely negative. seasonal river floods, in particular, play a crucial role in supporting ecosystems, renewing soil fertility in cultivated floodplains (wisner et al., 2004
Give an example of somewhere flooding is a positive occurence?
in regions such as the floodplains of bangladesh, a 'normal' level of seasonal flooding is therefore regarded as positive
What can be unreliable about the measurments?
the physical parameters of a flood are not always effectively measured and are not necessarily reliable indicators of its impacts
river and coastal defence engineers distinguish flood events using a statistical flood frequency measure, which uses historic data to define the probability of occurrence of a flood event of a given magnitude (parker, 2000). hence a '100-year flood' refers to an event of a size likely to occur once in every hundred years, while a '1-year flood' might be expected annually. however, the physical parameters of a flood are not always effectively measured and are not necessarily reliable indicators of its impacts. differing perceptions of and terminology for flood severity make it difficult to develop a standardised categorisation of floods, and no such detailed categorisation is attempted in this paper. in any case, categorising by flood magnitude can be misleading when considering severity of impacts since the same flood may differ in its effect at even an inter-household scale (wisner et al. 2004). the consequences of flooding are by no means solely negative. seasonal river floods, in particular, play a crucial role in supporting ecosystems, renewing soil fertility in cultivated floodplains (wisner et al., 2004). in regions such as the floodplains of bangladesh, a 'normal' level of seasonal flooding is therefore regarded as positive: it is only when a flood reaches an abnormal level that it is perceived negatively as a damaging event (parker, 2000). it is this latter sense in which we use the term 'flood hazard' in this paper, meaning a flood event with the potential to cause harm to humans or human systems. flood hazards may of course have varying degrees of impact, from minor or small-scale damage to damage of catastrophic proportions. this paper is concerned will all scales of
Of the two named reactors, which is most efficient?
complete-mix reactor is less efficient than the plug-flow reactor
Does the influent have the same characteristics?
the influent also has the same characteristics of the referred example (flow 600 m3/d; influent substrate concentration 200 g m3
Whatâ€™s the difference in concentration of a complete-mix reactor and a plug reactor?
considering (a) that the removal rate is a function of the local concentration in first or higher-order reactions and (b) that the concentration at a complete-mix reactor is lower than the average concentration along a plug-flow reactor, then the efficiency of the complete-mix reactor is lower than that of the plug-flow reactor
biodegradable substances with first-order reactions or higher the complete-mix reactor is less efficient than the plug-flow reactor. considering (a) that the removal rate is a function of the local concentration in first or higher-order reactions and (b) that the concentration at a complete-mix reactor is lower than the average concentration along a plug-flow reactor, then the efficiency of the complete-mix reactor is lower than that of the plug-flow reactor. example 8.2 a reactor of an approximately square shape and good mixing conditions has the same volume as the reactor in example 8.1 (3,000 m3). the influent also has the same characteristics of the referred example (flow 600 m3/d; influent substrate concentration 200 g m3). calculate the concentration profile along the reactor (assuming an ideal complete-mix reactor under steady state) in the following conditions:
When was the last widespread fire occured in the west slop of Sierras?
the last widespread fire in our sites on the west slope of the sierras occurred between about 1850 and 1870
What forced sheepherders in Central Vally to seek forage in the mountains?
with movement of large sheep herds into the sierras during and following a severe drought in the early 1860s, which forced sheepherders in the central valley to seek forage in the high mountain meadows
What happened due to intensive grazing?
this intensive grazing led to denudation of large tracts of formerly grassy areas in the high sierras by the 1870s
e1 twentieth century, despite having very similar climate as nearby mountain ranges on the u.s. side where grazing occurred and frequent fire regimes were disrupted (swetnam, baisan, and kaib 2001). the frequent surface fire regimes of mid-elevation forests (2000 to 3000m) in the sierras were typically disrupted earlier than in most southwestern sites. the last widespread fire in our sites on the west slope of the sierras occurred between about 1850 and 1870 (fig. 6.2, and see caprio and swetnam 1995). this corresponds with movement of large sheep herds into the sierras during and following a severe drought in the early 1860s, which forced sheepherders in the central valley to seek forage in the high mountain meadows (vankat 1977). this intensive grazing led to denudation of large tracts of formerly grassy areas in the high sierras by the 1870s, as decried by john muir; he called these sheep herds "hooved locusts" (muir 1911).
What is Climate Pressure?
this includes the inability to respond adequately to climate stressors and the costs and adverse effects associated with the adaptation and coping measures themselves
What is Climate Change?
such costs and adverse effects can be both economic and non-economic. loss and damage is also related to mitigation, as the potential costs of future climate change depend to a large extent on the intensity of climatic disruptions, which in turn depend on mitigation efforts globally
this includes the inability to respond adequately to climate stressors and the costs and adverse effects associated with the adaptation and coping measures themselves. such costs and adverse effects can be both economic and non-economic. loss and damage is also related to mitigation, as the potential costs of future climate change depend to a large extent on the intensity of climatic disruptions, which in turn depend on mitigation efforts globally. the empirical research on loss and damage aimed to enhance understanding of how the interaction of climatic variability and climate change with livelihoods and social vulnerability creates particular patterns of loss and damage today in least developed and developing countries. to understand patterns of loss and damage in nuanced social-ecological contexts across the world, the case studies gathered data in four research domains: 1 climate stressor: manifestations of climate variability and climate change in specific ecosystems (for example, rainfall variability, droughts, floods, cyclones and tropical storms, glacial melt, sea-level rise, etc.). this could involve extreme weather-related events and more gradual changes. 2 societal impact: societal impacts related to climatic drivers of importance in a particular ecosystem (for example, impact on food production, livelihood security, health, damage to physical assets, etc.). some impacts - like coastal erosion and salinity intrusion - result from both social and physical/climatic factors and their interactions. 3 responses: what is done to adapt to changes in the frequency and severity of extreme weather-related events and slow-onset climate changes? and what is done to cope with societal impacts? the terms 'coping' and 'adaptation' are often used synonymously. this is problematic because they involve different types of responses to different types of stressors (van der geest, 2004; birkmann, 2011). in the loss and damage case studies, coping strategies were defined as short-term responses to the impacts of sudden events. adaptation was defined as longer-term responses to more gradual changes (warner et al., 2012b). we acknowledge that adaptation measures are adopted "in response to actual and expected impacts of climate change in the context of interacting nonclimatic changes" [moser and ekstrom, (2010), p.22026] and that such measures "aim to meet more than climate change goals alone" (ibid). 4 (residual) loss and damage: what are the effects of climate variability and climate change that people have not (yet) been able to avoid? what are the limits and costs of adaptation to climatic changes? what happens to a household when its coping strategies are not effective enough to avoid or manage the impacts of extreme events? loss and damage can result from an inability to respond to climate stressors,
What is the aim of the climate/earth system modeling (ESM)?
understanding the natural in assessment of impacts
What is the role of the IAV?
understanding the risks and opportunities for human and natural systems presented by climate change and the possible adaptation policies to address
What does IAM stand for?
integrated assessment modeling
they allow for integration across research disciplines. three key climate research communities are those involved in climate/earth system modeling (esm) (understanding the natural in assessment of impacts, adaptation and vulnerability (iav)) (understanding the risks and opportunities for human and natural systems presented by climate change and the possible adaptation policies to address) and integrated assessment modeling (iam) (understanding the drivers of climate change and the effectiveness of potential mitigation policies). the interactions among these communities, such as the trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation responses, are relevant for climate research and policy. shared scenarios can facilitate this, and, in fact, the process of scenario development itself could facilitate new, integrated, research questions.
Define Carbon dioxide?
carbon dioxide is the most important greenhouse gas arising from human economic activity
Which one is lower demand for energy intense?
despite the considerable attention given to potential economic opportunities, fossil fuel-related sectors still clearly face a substantial 'regulatory risk' from higher fuel costs and lower demand for energy-intense products (wellington and sauer, 2005
Which Country Willingness to invest the tecnology?
european firms also demonstrated a greater willingness than their us counterparts to invest in technologies
carbon dioxide is the most important greenhouse gas arising from human economic activity, so regulatory measures to control the emissions of ghgs most directly threaten sectors that produce or rely on fossil fuels, including coal, oil, automobiles, power generation, and airlines. other energyintense sectors include cement, paper, agriculture, and aluminium. potent greenhouse gases, such as methane, hfcs, and sf6, are emitted in smaller quantities by agriculture, waste processing facilities, electric utilities, and air-conditioning manufacturers. despite the considerable attention given to potential economic opportunities, fossil fuel-related sectors still clearly face a substantial 'regulatory risk' from higher fuel costs and lower demand for energy-intense products (wellington and sauer, 2005). the prospect of changes in prices, technologies, and demand patterns also presents firms with considerable 'competitive risk', as markets are disrupted and existing core competences become obsolete. it is not a simple matter, however, for firms to invest in research and development and move into new low-emissions technologies, as these frequently require radically different capabilities that threaten to open industries to new entrants (anderson and tushman, 1990; christensen, 1997; kolk and pinkse, 2008). solar energy, for example, requires expertise in silicon semiconductors rather than geology and organic chemistry, the existing core competencies of oil firms. the threat of regulatory controls on carbon prompted a wide range of sectors to respond aggressively in the early 1990s. us-based firms were particularly active in challenging climate science, pointing to the potentially high economic costs of greenhouse gas controls, and lobbying government at various levels (gelbspan, 1997; leggett, 2000; levy and egan, 2003). european industry responded somewhat later to the climate change issue and displayed a greater readiness to accommodate pressures from regulators and environmental groups. european firms also demonstrated a greater willingness than their us counterparts to invest in technologies, such as wind power and diesel cars, that would produce modest but relatively quick ghg emission reductions (kolk and levy, 2004; levy, 2005). by 2000, key firms on both sides of the atlantic were converging toward a more
Who is the supporter of the research?
this research was supported by an nsf doctoral dissertation improvement grant (deb 1110559) and by the us department of energy's office of science (ber) through the midwestern regional centre of the national institute for climatic change research
Who are the analysers of the project?
sarah placella and mike phelan
we thank mark bradford, jay lennon and sarah fitzpatrick for comments that improved earlier versions of this manuscript, as well the editor and three anonymous reviewers. we also thank sarah placella and mike phelan for assistance with analyses. this research was supported by an nsf doctoral dissertation improvement grant (deb 1110559) and by the us department of energy's office of science (ber) through the midwestern regional centre of the national institute for climatic change research. the ramps experiment was implemented with funding from nsf through the konza lter, and we thank those involved in developing and maintaining this project.
Why are Climate models getting better?
climate models are increasing in complexity, enabling researchers to look in greater detail at the physical processes connecting different parts of the climate system
What is a potentially important issue according to Pielke?
one of the potentially important issues that pielke (2002) raises is the impact of anthropogenic land cover change on climate
What do we use the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory for?
we use the geophysical fluid dynamics laboratory (gfdl) climate model to test the hypothesis that alterations to the vegetation cover of the earth's surface due to human activities
climate models are increasing in complexity, enabling researchers to look in greater detail at the physical processes connecting different parts of the climate system. to date, the u.s. national climate assessment as well as the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) have considered only a limited number of processes in their attempts to understand observed climate trends and to make projections about possible future climate scenarios. one of the potentially important issues that pielke (2002) raises is the impact of anthropogenic land cover change on climate. pielke et al. (1998) discuss the many shortand long-term processes that connect the terrestrial ecosystem and overlying atmosphere; they assert that, "in studies of past and possible future climate change, terrestrial ecosystem dynamics are as important as changes in atmospheric dynamics and composition, ocean circulation, ice sheet extent, and orbital perturbations" (460- 4611). we use the geophysical fluid dynamics laboratory (gfdl) climate model to test the hypothesis that alterations to the vegetation cover of the earth's surface due to human activities have altered regional
Where were the body temperatures of active liolaemids taken from?
body temperatures of active liolaemids (data set 1) were taken from previous studies (18 species) or collected in nature (49 species) by using standard methods described in supporting methods
what value, in degrees,did most all nods of the liolaemids tree have?
almost all nodes of the liolaemid tree have reconstructed values within the range of 33-37degc
body temperatures of active liolaemids (data set 1) were taken from previous studies (18 species) or collected in nature (49 species) by using standard methods described in supporting methods the body temperature of the common ancestor of liolaemidae (reconstructed value 34.0  5.8degc) was estimated by using linear generalized least squares with branch lengths from the nd2 gene (described above). almost all nodes of the liolaemid tree have reconstructed values within the range of 33-37degc. the tree in fig. 1 was pruned to include the 52 taxa for which body temperatures and nd2 sequences were available. among the parsimony and bayesian trees, the ancestral body temperature range was 33.9- 34.0  5.7-5.8degc. the set of taxa for which body temperatures are available is almost identical to the set of taxa for which both body temperatures and nd2 data are available, so analyses assuming equal branch lengths were not performed.
What is the motivation behind RCMs?
the motivation behind rcms is the concept of 'downscaling'. its purpose is to obtain regional or local detail from either sparse observations or lowresolution numerical simulations
How are regional models sometimes called?
regional models are sometimes called comprehensive, consistent, and physically based interpolator or, in more popular terms, a magnifying glass
Where can Downscaling in principle be applied?
downscaling can in principle be applied to refine any data, regardless of its resolution
the motivation behind rcms is the concept of 'downscaling'. its purpose is to obtain regional or local detail from either sparse observations or lowresolution numerical simulations. regional models are sometimes called comprehensive, consistent, and physically based interpolator or, in more popular terms, a magnifying glass. this does not imply that rcms are simple. their description of climate processes is as complex as in comprehensive gcms. downscaling can in principle be applied to refine any data, regardless of its resolution. the two main downscaling methods are known as statistical and dynamical downscaling. the former involves finding robust statistical relationships between largescale climate variables (e.g., the mean sea level pressure field) and local ones (such as temperature or precipitation). there is a wealth of specific methods for this (e.g., ref 7, section 11.10.1.3). as already has been alluded to, dynamical downscaling by means of rcms (e.g., ref 7, section 11.10.1.2) relies on the same physical-dynamical description of fundamental climate processes that is at the core of gcms. there are two further approaches to dynamical downscaling. one of these is to use a highresolution atmospheric global model (e.g., ref 7, section 11.10.1.1). another technique is a global model with a variable-resolution grid.12,13in this case, the computational grid is made dense over the region of interest, but left sparser elsewhere. these two approaches have their own strengths and weaknesses. among the two, the latter is a computational demand that surpasses the requirements to run a global and subsequently a regional model. for users interested in regional issues and with limited computing resources, rcms can be more attractive. in addition, large numbers of gcm simulations are being performed for purposes other than enabling regional studies. thus, a large amount of boundary data is potentially available for downscaling. the primary assumption in regional modeling is that data on the climate large-scale information is used to force ('drive') an rcm over a limited area. such a regional domain, as compared to a global one, allows for high resolution without a prohibitive increase in computational cost. driving data are supplied to the regional model as lateral (and often also sea surface) boundary conditions. the basic set of boundary conditions contains temperature, moisture, and circulation (winds), as well as seasurface temperature and sea ice. an accurate treatment of boundary conditions is a central issue in regional modeling.
When was the data for this student obtained?
data for this study were obtained from a national survey conducted in october and november, 2008
Who were the respondents used for this panel?
respondents were adult members of an online, probability-based panel recruited and maintained by knowledge networks
How many members were in the panel?
the panel consists of fifty thousand members, recruited using random digit dialing with a sample frame consisting of the entire u.s. telephone population. knowledge networks provides selected households with free hardware and internet access to ensure that segments of the population without computers or internet access are represented in the panel
data for this study were obtained from a national survey conducted in october and november, 2008. respondents were adult members of an online, probability-based panel recruited and maintained by knowledge networks. the panel consists of fifty thousand members, recruited using random digit dialing with a sample frame consisting of the entire u.s. telephone population. knowledge networks provides selected households with free hardware and internet access to ensure that segments of the population without computers or internet access are represented in the panel. panelists complete an average of two surveys of five to twenty minutes per month for which they receive small monetary incentives. the length of the questionnaire mandated that we divide it into two parts. an invitation to participate in the first survey was emailed to four thousand randomly selected panel members in september 2008. two weeks after administration of the first survey ended, respondents received an invitation to participate in the second survey. the period of administration for each survey--from invitation to termination of data collection-- was approximately ten days, during which one reminder email was sent to nonrespondents. perception of scientific agreement, belief in human causes of climate change, global warming certainty, and party identification and ideology were measured in the first wave; the remaining variables were measured in the second wave. completed questionnaires were received from 2,164 respondents. response metrics for online panel surveys are still under development, and do not compare directly to surveys in which a single questionnaire is administered. following callegaro and disogra's (2008) recommendations for the computation and reporting of response metrics for online panels, table 1 reports the panel recruitment rates, profile rates, completion rates, and final cumulative response rates for both survey waves. while the cumulative response rate appears low relative to telephone surveys, studies show that probability-based internet surveys yield more accurate results than telephone interviews, with an optimal combination of both sample composition and response accuracy (chang and krosnick 2009).
What were analysed according to Faegri?
pollen and spores were analysed according to faegri et al. (1989), with exotic pollen eucalyptus added to each sample in order to estimate the pollen concentration
How many grams were counted?
a minimum of 500 grains was counted per sample
What matter, including organic was removed?
carbonates, silicates and most of the organic matter were removed with 10% hcl, 48% hf and acetolysis, respectively, before mounting in glycerine
pollen and spores were analysed according to faegri et al. (1989), with exotic pollen eucalyptus added to each sample in order to estimate the pollen concentration. samples were deflocculated with 10% hot koh and sieved through a 700u m mesh. carbonates, silicates and most of the organic matter were removed with 10% hcl, 48% hf and acetolysis, respectively, before mounting in glycerine. a minimum of 500 grains was counted per sample. pollen counts at francis and a la pessiere were planned to give a mean time resolution of about 100-120 years and samples were taken every 5 cm (2-3 cm at the surface and during afforestation phases) and every 8 cm (4 cm at surface), respectively. preliminary analysis of pas-de-fond cores at low resolution (17 spectra on 8000 years) showed similar results to francis (in the same vegetation zone at present), and further analysis was unlikely to yield significant additional information.
In his commentary "what is 'dangerous' climate change", Schneider gives a perceptive account of what?
he also gives a perceptive account of the critical issues that remain unresolved after completion of the comprehensive third assessment report of the ipcc (see schneider's commentary for publication references
What has been mainly disagreed with Schneider?
although we agree with most of what schneider says, we disagree with him about the appropriateness and feasibility of assigning subjective probabilities of occurrence to alternative, unknown futures described by the sres scenarios
What danger Schneider's position can lead to?
there is a danger that schneider's position might lead to a dismissal of uncertainty in favour of spuriously constructed 'expert' opinion
sir -- stephen schneider, in his commentary "what is 'dangerous' climate change?" nature 411, 17-19; 2001), provides a succinct description of the ipcc process and an excellent summary of the special report on emissions scenarios (sres, of which we were among the lead authors), its findings and implications for climate change. he also gives a perceptive account of the critical issues that remain unresolved after completion of the comprehensive third assessment report of the ipcc (see schneider's commentary for publication references). although we agree with most of what schneider says, we disagree with him about the appropriateness and feasibility of assigning subjective probabilities of occurrence to alternative, unknown futures described by the sres scenarios. in an interdisciplinary scientific assessment, the concept of probabilities as used in natural sciences should not be imposed on the social sciences. probability in the natural sciences is a statistical approach relying on repeated experiments and frequencies of measured outcomes, in which the system to be analysed can be viewed as a 'black box'. scenarios describing possible future developments in society, economy, technology, policy and so on, are radically different. first, there are no independent observations and no repeated experiments: the future is unknown, and each future is 'path-dependent': that is, it results from a large series of conditionalities ('what if... then' assumptions) that need to be followed through in constructing internally consistent scenarios. socioeconomic variables and their alternative future development paths cannot be combined at will and are not freely interchangeable because of their interdependencies. one should not, for example, create a scenario combining low fertility with high infant mortality, or zero economic growth with rapid technological change and productivity growth -- since these do not tend to go together in real life any more than they do in demographic or economic theory. second, the 'what if... then' approach requires the explicit representation of a system to describe how the variables interact. that is, any randomly assumed distribution of 'what if' conditions (based on expert opinion about the future of world population, economic growth, technological development, diets and so on) would be insufficient without also assigning distributions to the conditional probabilities by which these assumed future states of driving forces interact to influence an unknown outcome (greenhouse-gas emissions). this means that the distributions of 'what if' as well as 'then' remain unknown. we agree with schneider about the dangers of arbitrarily picking a (too) limited set of scenarios. we also agree that it is important to be consistent in choosing which climate sensitivities to apply to which scenario. resorting to a premature 'expert consensus' on the likelihood of certain emission futures and associated climate change in 100 years seems to ignore two essential facts: climate change has moved beyond the domain of 'experts' to that of a multitude of societal stakeholders; and good scientific arguments preclude determining 'probabilities' or the likelihood that future events will occur. the levels of future greenhouse-gas emissions and the ensuing climate change remain uncertain; we need adaptive response strategies that explicitly recognize these uncertainties. so although we agree with schneider in many respects, 'dangerous' levels of climate change will need to be identified by research into the adverse impacts on natural and human systems, independent of the question of how likely they are to occur, and covering the full range of scientific uncertainty. there is a danger that schneider's position might lead to a dismissal of uncertainty in favour of spuriously constructed 'expert' opinion. arnulf grubler, nebojsa nakicenovic international institute for applied systems analysis, a-2361 laxenburg, austria
How do people describe how they perceive their environment?
the term climate has long been used to describe how individuals perceive their environments
What is the result of a judgment process aggregating the evaluations an individual makes about his or her environment at different levels of observation?
the perception of an organization's climate
What does the concept of climate explain?
how environmental variables (i.e., observations of the environment) can affect psychological ones (i.e., perceptions of climate
the term climate has long been used to describe how individuals perceive their environments (lewin, lippet, white, 1939). in the present study, climate is defined by adapting naylor, pritchard, and ilgen's (1980) conception of perceived climate. the perception of an organization's climate is the result of a judgment process aggregating the evaluations an individual makes about his or her environment at different levels of observation. for example, a student could describe his or her campus as "hostile" or "friendly." this global evaluation is the result of a number of specific observations such as hearing an instructor use a racist example in class or seeing that people on the campus greet fellow students as they pass by (naylor et al., 1980; reichers schneider, 1990). the concept of climate explains how environmental variables (i.e., observations of the environment) can affect psychological ones (i.e., perceptions of climate).
How can a broad range of microclimates in a local vicinity promote more resilient mobile organism populations?
a broad range of microclimates in a local vicinity, between which mobile organisms can move, can allow them to maintain themselves closer to their optimum environmental conditions, i.e., growth rates may be higher and populations are buffered from extreme events
What does the evidence show that promotes more stable population dynamics of some butterfly species?
heterogeneity in habitat types and topographies
What can cause homogenous land use with limited microclimatic variation to increase impacts of climate change?
due to reduced soil and habitat diversity and flatter topography
while too small a patch size, may create problems for some species in terms of minimum patch requirements, a broad range of microclimates in a local vicinity, between which mobile organisms can move, can allow them to maintain themselves closer to their optimum environmental conditions, i.e., growth rates may be higher and populations are buffered from extreme events.86-89this offers the opportunity to manage land to provide a range of microclimates and promote more resilient populations.90there is evidence that heterogeneity in habitat types and topographies promote more stable population dynamics of some butterfly species.91indeed, future microclimatic conditions may be affected as much by land use change as by climate change.92of course, the converse also applies, and homogenous land use with limited microclimatic variation (e.g., due to reduced soil and habitat diversity and flatter topography) may suffer greater impacts of climate change.93-96
What do some RISAs rely on?
some risas rely on an approach that uses a combination of formal mechanisms such as surveys and personal interviews with likely users
The Southeast Climate Consortioum RISA (SECC) is composed of researchers at what universities?
for instance, the southeast climate consortium risa (secc), composed of researchers at universities in alabama, georgia, and florida, employs a top-down approach to developing stakeholder capacity to use climate information in the southeast's $33 billion agricultural sector (jagtap et al. 2002
What did SECC researchers recognize early on?
early on, secc researchers recognized the potential to use knowledge of the impact of enso on local climate to advise farmers, ranchers, and forestry sector stakeholders on yields and changes to risk (e.g., frost occurrence
some risas rely on an approach that uses a combination of formal mechanisms such as surveys and personal interviews with likely users. for instance, the southeast climate consortium risa (secc), composed of researchers at universities in alabama, georgia, and florida, employs a top-down approach to developing stakeholder capacity to use climate information in the southeast's $33 billion agricultural sector (jagtap et al. 2002). early on, secc researchers recognized the potential to use knowledge of the impact of enso on local climate to advise farmers, ranchers, and forestry sector stakeholders on yields and changes to risk (e.g., frost occurrence). through a series of need
When did routine use of fire begin?
routine use of fire appears to have begun between 50,000 and 100,000 years ago
What are some examples of intentional fires?
examples include forests and savannas clearing for agricultural and grazing use; slash and burn cultivation; the control of grass, weeds, and litter on agricultural and grazing lands; removal of stubble and waste on agricultural lands after harvest; and the domestic use of biomass matter for cooking and heating
In which countries has an upward trend in carbon emissions been noted?
an upward trend in global carbon emissions attributable to deforestation over the 20th century has recently been observed with asia, africa, and south america being the most significant contributors to this trend during the 1990s
for several substances these emissions are comparable to industrial emissions,or even exceed them, as is the case of organic aerosols.contrary to the industrial emissions that often show minimal seasonality, biomass burning emissions are concentrated mostly over a particular burning period (or season). routine use of fire appears to have begun between 50,000 and 100,000 years ago. hunter-gathers used fires to reduce fuel and manage wildlife and many of these practices continue today.the indigenous people of northern australia used manwurrk (fire drives) to flush out game during hunting,demonstrating the knowledge and skills indigenous people bring to fire management in fire-prone landscapes around the world. fires can be initiated naturally by lightning strikes, although estimates suggest that 90% of fires are intentional for land-use practices.examples include forests and savannas clearing for agricultural and grazing use; slash and burn cultivation; the control of grass, weeds, and litter on agricultural and grazing lands; removal of stubble and waste on agricultural lands after harvest; and the domestic use of biomass matter for cooking and heating. while biomass burning has been part of slash and burn agriculture for a relatively long period, increasing population and demand for agricultural land and food has had a profound effect on the extent of biomass burning. an upward trend in global carbon emissions attributable to deforestation over the 20th century has recently been observed with asia, africa, and south america being the most significant contributors to this trend during the 1990s.the trends in global deforestation carbon emissions reflect settlement patterns. for example, at the beginning of the 20th century, north america, asia, and europe accounted for the most carbon emissions due to deforestation. between 1900 and 1960, an estimated 5% decrease in global carbon emissions is attributed to land-use changes and wood harvesting that reduce the biomass available for burning. in this article we review our present understanding of the impact of biomass burning emissions on the present and future climate. the first section summarizes the impacts of fires on air quality, long range transport of pollutants, chemistry and atmospheric radiation in the present climate. this is followed by a discussion of the tools used to observe and predict fires and their impacts in the present and future climate. the influence of shortand long-term climate changes on fire occurrence and severity is then discussed together with limitations in our ability to predict fire ignition and behavior. fire management and global policy issues are summarized and the paper concludes with suggestions for actions to develop the tools and data required to improve our ability to assess, adapt to and mitigate fires and their emissions.
What is more likely now than human activity has contributed?
it is now more likely than not that human activity has contributed to observed increases in heat waves, intense precipitation events, and the intensity of tropical cyclones (2
What is the impact of some recent extreme weather events?
responses to some recent extreme climate events have also revealed higher levels of vulnerability across the globe, producing significant loss of life and property damage in both developing and developed countries
What was the impact on Europe in 2003?
the large and unexpected health impacts due to a heat wave of unprecedented magnitude in 2003 in europe provide
it is now more likely than not that human activity has contributed to observed increases in heat waves, intense precipitation events, and the intensity of tropical cyclones (2). there are, as well, more observations of climate change impacts from extremes than in the tar (5, 14). responses to some recent extreme climate events have also revealed higher levels of vulnerability across the globe, producing significant loss of life and property damage in both developing and developed countries. the large and unexpected health impacts due to a heat wave of unprecedented magnitude in 2003 in europe provide one such example (15).pprojected increases
How climate change happening nowadays?
climate change is happening with greater speed and intensity than initially predicted
Why climate changes become a challenge?
emissions reductions efforts have been too little, too late. therefore, the challenges and complex politics of adaptation are joining those of mitigation at the centre of policy debates
How climate change affects human life?
one of the most important issues to address is how climate change will affect human migration and displacement
climate change is happening with greater speed and intensity than initially predicted.110,111safe levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases may be far lower than previously thought, and we may be closer to an irreversible tipping point than had been anticipated.112 meanwhile, global co2 emissions are rising at steeper and steeper rates.113 emissions reductions efforts have been too little, too late. therefore, the challenges and complex politics of adaptation are joining those of mitigation at the centre of policy debates. one of the most important issues to address is how climate change will affect human migration and displacement--and what we will do about it. there are many messages to be taken from the empirical evidence and maps presented in this report. the following are especially important:
What does the main map depicts?
the main map depicts areas of sea level rise at 1 and 2 meters (dark and light blue, respectively) on a population density map with urban extents delineated
In 2000, how many millions people did the Nile delta support?
the nile delta supported a population of 40.2 million in 2000, of which 10.7 million lived in areas that would be inundated by a 2 meter sea level rise
What does the inset map shows?
the inset map shows the distribution of agricultural lands
the main map depicts areas of sea level rise at 1 and 2 meters (dark and light blue, respectively) on a population density map with urban extents delineated. it also shows the boundary of the nile delta. the nile delta supported a population of 40.2 million in 2000, of which 10.7 million lived in areas that would be inundated by a 2 meter sea level rise. the inset map shows the distribution of agricultural lands. the delta has 1.5 million ha of agricultural lands, of which 518 thousand ha would be inundated by a 2 meter sea level rise. these processes could compress people into a smaller livable area and contribute to deteriorating living standards.
Mangroves are what for fish and crustaceans?
nurseries
Connectivity of mangroves with other adjacent habitats has been observed to increase what?
productivity
Investigation of fish diets using stable isotope techniques also indicated what?
mangrove resources make a significant contribution to fish diets in species that are not resident in mangroves
mangroves are nurseries for fish and crustaceans. this is one of the key attributes of mangroves that contribute to their high economic value146,23,22. along the queensland coast, as in other locations, mangrove cover is positively correlated with fisheries landings27,118. in the study of manson et al.118 the relationship between mangrove area and perimeter (edge) was significant for banana prawns, mud crabs and barramundi, which are known to spend part of their life cycles in mangroves, but were also significant for other species not directly associated with mangrove habitats (eg tiger prawns, blue swimmer crabs and blue threadfin). these results indicate that mangroves provide resource subsidies to connected habitats that lead to increased fish stocks. investigation of fish diets using stable isotope techniques also indicated that mangrove resources make a significant contribution to fish diets in species that are not resident in mangroves125. the single offshore commercially important species included in manson et al's119 analysis, coral trout, did not show a significant association with the area of mangrove habitat. however, in other regions in the world mangroves are known to support ecologically and economically important fish species127,108,21,128,129,51. connectivity of mangroves with other adjacent habitats has been observed to increase productivity. for example, close proximity of mangroves and seagrass enhanced productivity of many species129,164,159. although there are few studies of faunal dependence on high intertidal habitats, it is likely that for some species access and connectivity to the high intertidal area is important for enhanced total productivity124 (see chapter 19).
On what Disaster practitioners have focused largely?
disaster practitioners have focused largely on a warning/response/relief model where technological advances in climate monitoring and short-term forecasting are linked to effective dissemination of hazard information and responses that at least save lives
On which year tsunami occur?
the aftermath of the december 2004 tsunami saw, for instance, competing bids to install a regional early warning system. of course, land use regulation and preparedness are also in the 'toolkit', but are more difficult to implement. within the climate change adaptation community a common assertion is that an improvement in our ability to predict the magnitude and frequency of severe events will enable us to provide more effective adaptation strategies
What is the alternative view?
n alternative view is that if we could cope better with present climatic risks (possibly based on improved current forecasts), we could significantly reduce the impacts of future climate change. while most people would agree with these two statements, they have not really been tested and it is not clear how this information can be used in reducing social vulnerability (see bharwani et al., 2005 
disaster practitioners have focused largely on a warning/response/relief model where technological advances in climate monitoring and short-term forecasting are linked to effective dissemination of hazard information and responses that at least save lives. the aftermath of the december 2004 tsunami saw, for instance, competing bids to install a regional early warning system. of course, land use regulation and preparedness are also in the 'toolkit', but are more difficult to implement. within the climate change adaptation community a common assertion is that an improvement in our ability to predict the magnitude and frequency of severe events will enable us to provide more effective adaptation strategies. for this reason, there is a strong emphasis on developing hazard forecasting and early warning systems. an alternative view is that if we could cope better with present climatic risks (possibly based on improved current forecasts), we could significantly reduce the impacts of future climate change. while most people would agree with these two statements, they have not really been tested and it is not clear how this information can be used in reducing social vulnerability (see bharwani et al., 2005 ).
What rationales did anti-climate change individuals provide for their disbelief?
limate change naysayers had different rationales for their disbelief, ranging from acceptance of the reality of climate change (although naturally-caused or overblown) to flat denials and outright conspiracy theories
How many people are in 7% of the U.S. population?
approximately 12 million people
What is the name given to a community of people with high risk perception of climate change?
alarmists
the diversity of these responses demonstrates that climate change naysayers had different rationales for their disbelief, ranging from acceptance of the reality of climate change (although naturally-caused or overblown) to flat denials and outright conspiracy theories. this interpretive community is thus predisposed to discount or flatly reject scientific assessments of climate change. while only 7% of the u.s. adult population (or approximately 12 million people) according to these survey results, naysayers are politically active, are significantly more likely to vote, have strong representation in national government and powerful allies in the private sector (see also mccright, this volume). this study also identified a contrasting interpretive community with high risk perceptions of climate change - alarmists. some members of this group provided extreme images of catastrophic climate change, such as: "bad...bad...bad...like after nuclear war...no vegetation" "heat waves, it's gonna kill the world" "death of the planet." alarmists held pro-egalitarian, 10 10
What are the nutrient requirements of the cyanobacteria?
the nutrient requirements are very small: the cyanobacteria can proliferate in any environment that has at least co2, n2, water, some minerals and light
What is the balance between their oxygen production (photosynthesis) and consumption (respiration)?
the algae may produce about 15 times more oxygen than they consume (abdel-razik, 1991), leading to a positive balance of do in the system
cyanobacteria (previously called cyanophyta or blue-green algae). in reality these organisms present characteristics of bacteria and algae, and are classifiedasbacteria.thecyanobacteriadonothavelocomotionorganelles, 506 stabilisation ponds such as cilia, flagella or pseudopodes, but are capable of moving by sliding. the nutrient requirements are very small: the cyanobacteria can proliferate in any environment that has at least co2, n2, water, some minerals and light. these organisms are typical of conditions with low ph values and low nutrient availability in the wastewater. this environment (not typical in stabilisation ponds) is unfavourable for the green algae, which may also serve as food for other organisms, such as protozoa, leading to the proliferation of the cyanobacteria. oscillatoria phormidium anacystis and anabaena are among the main genera that can be mentioned. other types that can be found are algae of the phyla bacyllariophyta and chrysophyta (k"onig, 2000; mara et al, 1992). the predominant species vary from place to place, and even with the position in the series of ponds (facultative ponds and maturation ponds). the algae photosynthesise during the hours of the day that are subject to light radiation. in this period, they produce the organic matter necessary for their survival, converting the light energy into condensed chemical energy in the form of food. during the 24 hours of the day, they respire, oxidising the organic matter produced, and release the energy for growth, reproduction, locomotion and others. the balance between oxygen production (photosynthesis) and consumption (respiration) widely favours the former. in fact, the algae may produce about 15 times more oxygen than they consume (abdel-razik, 1991), leading to a positive balance of do in the system. owing to the requirement of light energy, most of the algae are located close to the pond surface, a location of high oxygen production. when deepening down intothepond,thelightenergydecreases,thereforereducingthealgalconcentration. in the surface layer, under 50 cm, is the range of higher light intensity, with the rest of the pond being practically dark. there is a position in the pond depth in which the oxygen production by the algae equals the oxygen consumption by the algae and the decomposing microorganisms. this point is called oxypause (see figure 13.3).
What have studies examining the potential impact of school institutional features on behavioral adjustment been predominantly focused on?
studies examining the potential impact of school institutional features on behavioral adjustment have predominantly focused on the extent to which structural features affect bullying behaviors
What did a large-scale study of public elementary and middle school students find?
a large-scale study of public elementary and middle school students found that student-teacher ratios, poverty concentration, suspension rates, student mobility, and school location predicted bullying attitudes and experiences (bradshaw et al. 2009 
What do institutional variables seem to indirectly influence?
institutional variables, therefore, seem to indirectly influence opportunities for bullying behaviors to occur on the school grounds, by shaping how effectively the school environment is organized, monitored, and supervised
studies examining the potential impact of school institutional features on behavioral adjustment have predominantly focused on the extent to which structural features affect bullying behaviors. for example, a large-scale study of public elementary and middle school students found that student-teacher ratios, poverty concentration, suspension rates, student mobility, and school location predicted bullying attitudes and experiences (bradshaw et al. 2009 ). another study indicated that structural variables (e.g., poverty, racial composition, size, and urbanicity) accounted for a large proportion of the variance in teacher and student victimization, after controlling for psychosocial and safety climate and discipline management (gottfredson et al. 2005 ). further analyses supported a mediated pathway between these structural variables, and delinquency and victimization, via psychosocial climate and discipline management (benner et al. 2008 ). institutional variables, therefore, seem to indirectly influence opportunities for bullying behaviors to occur on the school grounds, by shaping how effectively the school environment is organized, monitored, and supervised.
How are tree species boundaries determined?
minimum temperature tolerance determines the northern distribution boundaries of tree species; tropical trees suffer cold injuries even at temperatures above 0@c
Can temperatures cause injuries lethal to trees?
woodward (1987) found that minimum temperature effects or cold injuries can be sudden and often lethal
Does the timing of a frost event affect tolerance limits?
it is noteworthy that processes such as frost hardening in winter change tolerance limits dramatically, and that timing of extreme frost events can be more important than absolute temperature
minimum temperature tolerance determines the northern distribution boundaries of tree species; tropical trees suffer cold injuries even at temperatures above 0@c. deciduous trees in temperate zones tolerate temperatures as low as -30@c, whereas boreal conifers may survive temperatures as low as -70@c or colder without serious damage (woodward 1987; larcher 2003). minimum temperature is clearly one of the most important factors determining species distribution. woodward (1987) found that minimum temperature effects or cold injuries can be sudden and often lethal. it is noteworthy that processes such as frost hardening in winter change tolerance limits dramatically, and that timing of extreme frost events can be more important than absolute temperature. a decrease in frequency and magnitude of extreme cold temperatures and a lengthening of the growing season are likely to be among the effects of global climate change. evidence from historical records and model predictions demonstrate that the magnitude of temperature increases under global warming is greater in winter than in other seasons and greater at night than during the day.
Explain Photosynthesis and respiration ?
plants take up co2 through the process of photosynthesis, and release co2 during respiration, when the photosynthates are tapped for energy needed for plant growth and maintenance. between one-quarter and one-half of the carbon uptake in photosynthesis is typically released as respiration 
What determines the  the net carbon uptake by a crop ?
the difference between photosynthesis and respiration determines the net carbon uptake by a crop. both processes depend on temperature, with an optimum temperature for net uptake in full sun between 15 to 30degc in c3 crops and a higher optimum of 30-40degc in c4 crops
How is warming related to carbon uptake?
at nighttime, when photosynthesis is absent, any warming increases respiration and reduces net uptake. warming can therefore increase or decrease net carbon uptake, depending on the crop type
photosynthesis and respiration plants take up co2 through the process of photosynthesis, and release co2 during respiration, when the photosynthates are tapped for energy needed for plant growth and maintenance. between one-quarter and one-half of the carbon uptake in photosynthesis is typically released as respiration (amthor 1989). the difference between photosynthesis and respiration determines the net carbon uptake by a crop. both processes depend on temperature, with an optimum temperature for net uptake in full sun between 15 to 30degc in c3 crops and a higher optimum of 30-40degc in c4 crops. (the higher optimum for c4 plants is related to the lack of photorespiration, which in c3 crops increases with warming.) at nighttime, when photosynthesis is absent, any warming increases respiration and reduces net uptake. warming can therefore increase or decrease net carbon uptake, depending on the crop type (c3 vs. c4), the starting temperature relative to optimum, and whether the warming occurs at day or night. in addition to the direct effects of temperature on photosynthesis and respiration, higher temperatures increase the saturation vapor pressure of air and, in the absence of added moisture, will increase the vapor pressure deficit (vpd) between the leaf and surrounding air. plants respond to higher vpd by reducing stomatal conductance, leading to a decrease in co2
What is the motto followed by Germanwatch for promoting global equity and the preservation of livelihoods?
following the motto "observing, analysing, acting", germanwatch has been actively promoting global equity and the preservation of livelihoods since 1991
Which areas focused by Germanwatch following the motto "Observing, Analysing, Acting"?
in doing so, we focus on the politics and economics of the north and their worldwide consequences. the situation of marginalised people in the south is the starting point of our work
How Germanwatch is funded?
germanwatch is funded by membership fees, donations, grants from the "stiftung zukunftsfahigkeit" (foundation for sustainability) as well as grants from various other public and private donors
following the motto "observing, analysing, acting", germanwatch has been actively promoting global equity and the preservation of livelihoods since 1991. in doing so, we focus on the politics and economics of the north and their worldwide consequences. the situation of marginalised people in the south is the starting point of our work. together with our members and supporters as well as with other actors in civil society, we intend to represent a strong lobby for sustainable development. we attempt to approach our goals by advocating for the prevention of dangerous climate change, food security and compliance of companies with human rights. germanwatch is funded by membership fees, donations, grants from the "stiftung zukunftsfahigkeit" (foundation for sustainability) as well as grants from various other public and private donors. you can also help achieve the goals of germanwatch by becoming a member or by donating to: bank fuer sozialwirtschaft ag bic/swift: bfswde33ber iban: de33 1002 0500 0003 212300
Where do the actual adaptations of international adaptation financing take place?
much of the actual adaptation must take place in civil society, the private sector, and in local communities
What experience does the World Bank have in designing and preparing development projects?
the world bank also works primarily with governments, but has ample experience in attracting key stakeholders to the table in designing and preparing development projects
What should adaptation responses invite other actors to do?
adaptation responses should recognize these dimensions, and invite other actors to take part in adaptation, both in the analysis of climate risks and response needs
the fact that international adaptation financing is likely to flow primarily through national governments might create a bias towards projects and analyses at the national level. however, as with other development issues, much of the actual adaptation must take place in civil society, the private sector, and in local communities. adaptation responses should recognize these dimensions, and invite other actors to take part in adaptation, both in the analysis of climate risks and response needs, and in prioritizing, planning and implementing responses. the world bank also works primarily with governments, but has ample experience in attracting key stakeholders to the table in designing and preparing development projects. in these case of climate adaptation this experience could be further elaborated as drawn upon in the project cycle10.
What is the author trying to accomplish?
in this report i try to explain what the science tells us and what the implications for policy and action are
What factor or factors contribute to Africa's highly variable climate?
whether this current period is another natural episode or is the result of environmental degradation or of global warming we do not know
What is the range of different natural patterns does Africa's regions face?
encompasses the extreme aridity of the saharan deserts at one end of the range and the extreme humidity of the congo rainforest at the other
attempting to understand the effects of climate change on africa is fraught with difficulties. while some things are known and relatively well understood there is still great uncertainty about the key climatic processes and their consequences. there is also much that is simply unknown. in this report i try to explain what the science tells us and what the implications for policy and action are. i will endeavour to do this in language that, hopefully, is accessible to the lay person. first, it is important to recognise that africa's climate is naturally both highly diverse and highly variable. it encompasses the extreme aridity of the saharan deserts at one end of the range and the extreme humidity of the congo rainforest at the other. interacting with these natural patterns are the combined effects of anthropogenic global warming and human interference more generally. in most instances it is difficult or impossible to disentangle one cause of change from another. for example, the countries of the sahel have experienced many multidecadal periods of drought since the last glaciation.1 we are in one such period now (figure 1.1). whether this current period is another natural episode or is the result of environmental degradation or of global warming we do not know. probably it is a combination of these factors. what we do know is that global warming will exacerbate droughts such as these, increasing their frequency and intensity. figure 1.1 annual rainfall anomalies representing the region 10o 20o n; figure 1.1 annual rainfall anomalies representing the region 10o 20o n; 25o w - 30o e, roughly corresponding to the sahelian zone.2 droughts or floods that last a few months can be highly destructive but when they last decades the effects can be devastating or even irreversible, at
In what chapter did we see see that indigenous people had already populated most parts of the globe?
indigenous people already populated most parts of the globe, as we saw in chapter 10, from the arctic to the equator, from the high valleys of the himalayas to the great below-sea-level basins of the dead sea and the turfan oasis in china
In what year did S.F. Markham publish his book Climate and the Energy of Nations?
in 1939 s.f. markham published his book climate and the energy of nations in which he pointed out to a britain unfamiliar with air conditioning, the miracle of this new technology
What technology is being discussed in this topic?
pointed out to a britain unfamiliar with air conditioning, the miracle of this new technology
in 1939 s.f. markham published his book climate and the energy of nations in which he pointed out to a britain unfamiliar with air conditioning, the miracle of this new technology. 6 it was a miracle because it enabled people, adapted to the colder climates of europe, to colonize the warmer parts of the world. indigenous people already populated most parts of the globe, as we saw in chapter 10, from the arctic to the equator, from the high valleys of the himalayas to the great below-sea-level basins of the dead sea and the turfan oasis in china. intrepid european entrepreneurs and imperial armies had penetrated most of the far-flung corners of the globe by the end of the nineteenth century. what markham saw was that for westerners to actually live
When have profound changes have occurred?
profound changes have occurred in the european landscape during the 20th century
In a deteriorating environment, what are migratory birds forced to?
in a deteriorating environment, migratory birds are forced to cope with ever-changing patchy environments, which result from frequent and often radical shifts in land use
How have many species responded?
although herbivorous water birds used transient food sources in wetlands long before man transformed these sites into agricultural land, many species have responded by exploiting agricultural crops
profound changes have occurred in the european landscape during the 20th century. intensification of land use has led to a simplification of the trophic structure of many ecosystems, giving man control over natural variation in managed landscapes (heath evans, 2000). in a deteriorating environment, migratory birds are forced to cope with ever-changing patchy environments, which result from frequent and often radical shifts in land use. although herbivorous water birds used transient food sources in wetlands long before man transformed these sites into agricultural land, many species have responded by exploiting agricultural crops (hochbaum, 1955; scott boyd, correspondence: mennobart r. van eerden, e.mail: m.veerden@riza.rws.minvenw.nl
How much precipitation does the growth period get in an average year?
c, where annual precipitation averages 2000-2500 mm with a marked peak during the growth period
Is there snow in the Alps in May?
the alpine areas are covered by snow for approximately 6-8 months of the year (october-may
How do grazing animals affect forests?
since the mid-19th century, grazing intensity has decreased and much former pasture land has been abandoned, so that today only 7.5% of the study area remains as pasture for free-ranging cattle at a density of about 0.5 animals per hectare (dullinger, dirnbock, greimler grabherr 2003). the dominant woody plant species of the upper subalpine belt is prostrate pine
c, where annual precipitation averages 2000-2500 mm with a marked peak during the growth period. the alpine areas are covered by snow for approximately 6-8 months of the year (october-may). there is much fine-scale variation in the duration of snow cover due to the rugged relief and strong winds. summer pasturing (june to september) in the mt hochschwab region dates back at least to the 16th century. at least some historical livestock grazing has been documented over 30% of the study area. since the mid-19th century, grazing intensity has decreased and much former pasture land has been abandoned, so that today only 7.5% of the study area remains as pasture for free-ranging cattle at a density of about 0.5 animals per hectare (dullinger, dirnbock, greimler grabherr 2003). the dominant woody plant species of the upper subalpine belt is prostrate pine
What are PCBs
polychlorinated biphenyls
Why have PCB's been widely used?
polychlorinated biphenyls (pcbs) have been widely used as electrical fluids and plasticizers owing to their excellent dielectric properties, stability and inertness
In what do PCBs partition in?
once released, pops partition into air, water, soil, snow/ice and other environmental media according to their physical-chemical properties
most pops are manufactured for specific purposes owing to certain characteristic properties; for example, polychlorinated biphenyls (pcbs) have been widely used as electrical fluids and plasticizers owing to their excellent dielectric properties, stability and inertness. once released, pops partition into air, water, soil, snow/ice and other environmental media according to their physical-chemical properties. as these properties vary with temperature, climate change will affect their fate in the environment and influence observed concentrations and trends. surface reservoirs (for example, oceans and soil) become secondary sources of pops after they are no longer used, reemitting previously deposited chemicals5,7,8. carried primarily by air from southerly sources to the arctic, pops may be deposited and their concentrations amplified in the region as a result of the 'cold-trapping' effect2. pops that have accumulated in the cryosphere may be released during ice/snow melt, and those stored in sea water may be volatilized back into the atmosphere when the arctic ocean opens6,9. evidence of evasion from the ocean
Who describes celebrities as  flesh and performance-based 'tools' for 'eco-modernization' through their often continual hype in dealing with climate change?
hobson (2006) puts it, becoming fleshand performance-based 'tools' for 'eco-modernization' through their often continual hype for switching off lights, buying hybrid cars (which clearly involves emulation of the celebrities), and using other green technological and consumer-oriented schemes for dealing with climate change
What are the possible pitfalls in covering celebrities connected to climate change?
increased associations reduce proposed critical behavioral changes to the domain of fashion and fad rather than influence substantive long-term shifts in popular discourse and action
that celebrity and celebrities are commodities has not been lost of 'fame' scholars. as turner (2004, p. 9) states, ''celebrity is not only a discursive effect. the celebrity is also a commodity: produced, traded and marketed by the media and publicity industries. in this context, celebrity's primary function is commercial and promotional" to which we would add, also political. but what does this actually mean in the context of our model as well as for celebrities and politics more generally? several points stand out here. first, if celebrity/celebrities is/are commodities, then in this form, these are commodities and politics made flesh--and visa versa--in the individualized bodies and bodily performances of the famous, which have some implications as described further below. in short, in important ways, celebrities become the virtual and real embodiments of climate change politics. second, in keeping with the commodity-status of celebrity, it then becomes interesting to think about the sorts of 'values'--exchange, use, and sign--that inhabit celebrities and contribute to their connections to climate change politics. the sign value of celebrity here seems quite clear, as a way to raise the awareness of the problems of climate change, with the exchange value of celebrity a bit more tangential but perhaps in the knock-on effect of selling more green technologies or changing consumers'/societies behaviors. the use value of celebrity seems a bit more straightforward, and, in a reconstruction of the previous quote from bono, the value of celebrity here is as that amplified voice that can act as a form of cultural 'currency' to garner attention about climate change. third, the other commodities that need to be considered in our model are those that are engaged with as a result of the politicized statements and activities of celebrities: those green goods, such as hybrid cars and energy-efficient light-bulbs, which are (potentially) consumed by celebrities' audiences. in no small way, celebrities are also, as hobson (2006) puts it, becoming fleshand performance-based 'tools' for 'eco-modernization' through their often continual hype for switching off lights, buying hybrid cars (which clearly involves emulation of the celebrities), and using other green technological and consumer-oriented schemes for dealing with climate change. finally, this last point signals a wider argument about consumption and the politics of consumption in the cultural circuits of climate change celebrities. here we would suggest, consumption is thoroughly de differentiated bryman, 2004 in that it becomes increasingly unclear what is actually being consumed as it is thoroughly media-ted: is it the celebrity, their 'image', their politics, the green goods they are promoting, or some combination? in some ways, the more important question is about how this all matters as--from a thoroughly reformist perspective--might the answer be that it really does not matter as long as less co2 is being pumped into the atmosphere somehow? 5. icons and their effects: the cultural politics of climate change celebrities on its face, it might be argued that prominent figures from the entertainment industry have indeed contributed substantially to enhance public understanding of climate change causes and consequences, and significantly shape ongoing dynamics in climate policy and politics. in the least, this can be seen in some of the data presented above showing the increase in the coverage of celebrities connected to climate change in various media outlets. however, there are possible pitfalls as well in both discursive and material spaces, where increased associations reduce proposed critical behavioral changes to the domain of fashion and fad rather than influence substantive long-term shifts in popular discourse and action. taking up this more questioning (and critical) lens,
How do researchers make samples of beaches during low tide.
most researchers sample beaches during low tide
What happens at that point? almost all fauna is buried and less mobile
at this point, almost all of the fauna are buried and least mobile
What does this approach provide? Provides a longer sampling window
this approach provides a longer sampling window and, it has been argued, more readily captures deep-burrowing fauna
most researchers sample beaches during low tide. at this point, almost all of the fauna are buried and least mobile, and structural features of the beach are most evident. nevertheless, some researchers start working just after high tide and sample at stations above the receding swash line until low tide. this approach provides a longer sampling window and, it has been argued, more readily captures deep-burrowing fauna. however, quantitative comparisons (t. vanagt, personal communication) do not support the latter assertion and, in fact, suggest that swash-riding fauna are disproportionately represented in such samples. for these reasons, the low-tide approach is preferred. nevertheless, where the timing of low tide places unreasonable constraints on sampling, work can begin as the tide recedes. in such cases, cores should however not be taken from sediments seaward of a position at least 3 m landward of the upper limit of the swash, as measured over a 15-min period. this should be sufficient to avoid contamination by tidal migrants. recommendation 7 samples for the purpose of determining community structure of macrobenthos should be taken during the low tide, if logistically feasible.
Explain widely accepted?
it is now widely accepted that the global climate is changing, at least in part as a result of human modification of the atmosphere (weaver, 2003
Define Temperatures?
temperatures have increased at an unprecedented rate in the last 100 years, and warming trends are particularly pronounced in the higher latitudes (houghton et al., 2001
Explain climate-related risks?
as a consequence, climate-related risks that already pose challenges to arctic communities, including greater unpredictability of environmental conditions, geophysical hazards, and changes to marine and terrestrial ecosystems, are expected to increase
it is now widely accepted that the global climate is changing, at least in part as a result of human modification of the atmosphere (weaver, 2003). temperatures have increased at an unprecedented rate in the last 100 years, and warming trends are particularly pronounced in the higher latitudes (houghton et al., 2001). climate models predict that future climatic conditions are likely to be without precedent in the last 10 000 years, and it is anticipated that the effects will be felt earliest and strongest in the arctic (serreze et al., 2000; houghton et al., 2001). important changes in key climatic parameters are already evident in the arctic, and climate models suggest that greater changes are forthcoming. as a consequence, climate-related risks that already pose challenges to arctic communities, including greater unpredictability of environmental conditions, geophysical hazards, and changes to marine and terrestrial ecosystems, are expected to increase. the response to climate change by the united nations framework convention on climate change (unfccc) and national governments has been to focus on reducing emissions of greenhouse gases (known as "mitigation" in the climate-change community). given the slow progress
What are the two key advances in ocean modelling over the past decade?
two key advances in ocean modelling over the past decade are the rotation of the (symmetric) diffusion tensor to be aligned with respect to the local neutrally buoyant directions, and the discovery and implementation of the so-called gentmcwilliams mixing scheme for mesoscale eddies
what is the solution invoked in  two key advances in ocean modelling ?
the solution of the first involved the subtle thermobaric nature of the equation of state of seawater, while the second relies on the action of mesoscale eddies to release potential energy, with the mixing scheme being best viewed as either an extra quasi-stokes advection or alternatively as an additional amount of diffusion which happens to be skew diffusion
What is considered to be the root of the biggest improvements in ocean climate modelling in more than twenty years?
the solution of the first involved the subtle thermobaric nature of the equation of state of seawater, while the second relies on the action of mesoscale eddies to release potential energy, with the mixing scheme being best viewed as either an extra quasi-stokes advection or alternatively as an additional amount of diffusion which happens to be skew diffusion. these issues are subtle and are not covered in existing oceanographic texts, and yet they have been at the root of the biggest improvements in ocean climate modelling in more than twenty years
two key advances in ocean modelling over the past decade are the rotation of the (symmetric) diffusion tensor to be aligned with respect to the local neutrally buoyant directions, and the discovery and implementation of the so-called gentmcwilliams mixing scheme for mesoscale eddies. these two topics are expertly described in this book and together they occupy one third of its pages. this is entirely appropriate since both these advances have been crucial for controlling the false diapycnal mixing that otherwise occurs across sloping density surfaces in low-resolution z -coordinate models. both advances have been hard-won by oceanographers. the solution of the first involved the subtle thermobaric nature of the equation of state of seawater, while the second relies on the action of mesoscale eddies to release potential energy, with the mixing scheme being best viewed as either an extra quasi-stokes advection or alternatively as an additional amount of diffusion which happens to be skew diffusion. these issues are subtle and are not covered in existing oceanographic texts, and yet they have been at the root of the biggest improvements in ocean climate modelling in more than twenty years. this book truly lives up to its title. by delving into the physical basis for the choices made in present ocean models, the book does indeed establish the fundamental basis of ocean models. where the issues are not yet agreed on by the oceanographic community, the book takes on the character of a review of these research issues. the book will prove invaluable to ocean modellers and to those concerned with how fundamental ocean physics is represented in ocean models. trevor j. mcdougall hobart, australia
What is the most important viral vector-borne disease in the world?
dengue fever is the most important viral vector-borne disease in the world
How is Dengue fever transmitted?
is transmitted predominantly by one species of mosquito, aedes aegypti which has adapted to living near areas of human habitation
What is the limitation of the dangue fever control measures?
so management of the disease has relied on vector control measures, such as reduction of breeding sites and use of insecticides. such measures have succeeded in eradicating mosquitoes in some regions, but have proved difficult to maintain in the long term
there is increasing scientific interest in the potential effects on health of global climate change. one area that has received particular attention is the association between climate variation and vector-borne diseases.1,2 dengue fever is the most important viral vector-borne disease in the world.3the disease affects hundreds of millions of people every year, and is transmitted predominantly by one species of mosquito, aedes aegypti which has adapted to living near areas of human habitation. it feeds during the day and prefers human beings to other animals. no effective vaccine or drug treatment for dengue fever is yet available, so management of the disease has relied on vector control measures, such as reduction of breeding sites and use of insecticides. such measures have succeeded in eradicating mosquitoes in some regions, but have proved difficult to maintain in the long term. mosquito-borne disease transmission is climate sensitive for several reasons; mosquitoes require standing water to breed, and a warm ambient temperature is critical to adult feeding behaviour and mortality, the rate of larval development, and speed of virus replication.4,5if the climate is too cold, viral development is slow and mosquitoes are unlikely to survive long enough to become infectious. although a suitable climate is necessary for disease transmission, other factors are needed for an epidemic to take place, including a source of infection, vector populations, and a susceptible human population. mathematical models project substantial increases in transmission of vector-borne diseases in various climate change situations.1,6,7however, these models have been criticised on the grounds that they do not adequately account for rainfall,8 interactions between climate variables,9or relevant socioeconomic factors.10an empirical model of malaria transmission risks, which accounted for interactions between climate variables,9predicted little change in the size of the at-risk population by the year 2050. the decline of malaria in europe and the southern usa in the 20th century was attributable to social and economic development and improved public health services, and not to change in climate.10however, this finding does not mean that ambient temperature and rainfall are irrelevant from a health perspective. climate is one of the fundamental forces behind epidemics, and its effects become evident if adaptive measures falter or cannot be extended to all populations at risk. our aim was to describe the current geographical limits of dengue fever transmission on the basis of climate. in an empirical model, we incorporated future projections of climate, to estimate changes in the geographical limits of dengue fever transmission and the size of populations at risk.
What are the diseases mentioned in the article that can be directly caused by climate change?
respiratory diseases exacerbated by atmospheric pollution, or ensuing outbreaks of disease, such as typhoid and cholera, related to climate events such as floods
According to the article, what impacts on our health do climate change have?
the direct health impacts of climate change we see all around us on a regular basis, including deaths resulting from fires, floods and drought
According to the article, what are the main direct causes of death from temperature extremes?
heat and cold stress
direct impacts through death and injury from heatwaves, storms, floods and drought. <s121>*indirect impacts through the occurrence of health conditions exacerbated by changing weather conditions, e.g. respiratory diseases exacerbated by atmospheric pollution, or ensuing outbreaks of disease, such as typhoid and cholera, related to climate events such as floods. <s121>*migratory impacts resulting from the movement of sources of infection resulting from the diaspora of diseases via various carriers with warming climates, e.g. malaria and trypanosoma. the direct health impacts of climate change we see all around us on a regular basis, including deaths resulting from fires, floods and drought. heat and cold stress are the main direct causes of death from extremes of temperature and they are dealt with in chapter 9 on the human thermal response and chapter 14 on energy and fuel security issues. more free ebooks http://fast-file.blogspot.com
which country responding in to climate change
respondents' perceptions of the impacts of climate change on australia and on their households have statistically significant influence on their decisions to support the cprs
first respondents who believed  to the unmitigated climate change
 first, respondents who believed unmitigated climate change would negatively impact australia's biodiversity (biod), on an average, were significantly more likely to accept the offered bid level
were are the significantly to support a mitigation action
were significantly more likely to support a mitigation action. however, the coefficient of the variables comfort and discomfrt are not statistically significant at the ten percent level in model 2
respondents' perceptions of the impacts of climate change on australia and on their households have statistically significant influence on their decisions to support the cprs. first, respondents who believed unmitigated climate change would negatively impact australia's biodiversity (biod), on an average, were significantly more likely to accept the offered bid level. second, respondents who believed climate change would have some positive impacts such as comfortable winter weather (comfort), were significantly less likely to accept the offered bid level. conversely, those respondents who believed higher temperature would cause discomfort during summer (discomfrt) were significantly more likely to support a mitigation action. however, the coefficient of the variables comfort and discomfrt are not statistically significant at the ten percent level in model 2.
How are the reliable growth response functions critical in formulating new seed deployment strategies?
reliable growth response functions are critical in formulating new seed deployment strategies to mitigate the impacts of global warming
Did the use of anchor points affect the pattern of adaptation detected across populations?
the use of anchor points in development of response functions also altered the general pattern of adaptation detected across populations
How did the multivariate approach to climate affect response functions?
application of a multivariate approach to climate further improved response functions
as climate changes, the general 'local is the best' rule for seed transfer will no longer be valid. reliable growth response functions are critical in formulating new seed deployment strategies to mitigate the impacts of global warming. comprehensive provenance trials for lodgepole pine and a high-resolution climate model, climatebc, enabled the development of growth response functions to evaluate seed deployment options in british columbia. predicted anchor points based on transfer functions produced response curves with a reasonable temperature range and improved the response functions (average r2increased from 0.48 to 0.64 for 20-year height). otherwise, a large number of response functions (over 20%) with very low r2values o 0.20) or with unrealistic fundamental niches would either need to be discarded or arbitrarily modified. the use of anchor points in development of response functions also altered the general pattern of adaptation detected across populations. application of a multivariate approach to climate further improved response functions (average r2
How many days is the egg incubated?
they lay a single egg which is incubated constantly for about 33 days
How many days are nestlings fed by their parents?
nestlings are fed by their parents at the breeding site for 15-30 days before departing to sea
Since when have Brunnich guillotine breeding observations been made?
observations of reproduction by brunnich's guillemots have been made intermittently since 1975 at a breeding colony of about 100 000 pairs on prince leopold island (see gaston nettleship 1981), and annually since 1984 at a colony of 30 000 pairs on coats island, both in nunavut, canada
c. brunnich's guillemots forage underwater to depths of 100 m, feeding on small fishes, squid and large zooplankton. they lay a single egg which is incubated constantly for about 33 days, with the parents taking turns in 12-24-h shifts. nestlings are fed by their parents at the breeding site for 15-30 days before departing to sea (gaston nettleship 1981; gaston hipfner 2000). observations of reproduction by brunnich's guillemots have been made intermittently since 1975 at a breeding colony of about 100 000 pairs on prince leopold island (see gaston nettleship 1981), and annually since 1984 at a colony of 30 000 pairs on coats island, both in nunavut, canada (gaston
What was this conclusion largely based on?
barnett et al.80and pierce et al.81
Where did Barnett and Pierce extend previous detection and attribution analyses of ocean heat content changes to?
a basin by basin analysis of the temporal evolution of temperature changes in the upper 700 m of the ocean
What did Barnett and Pierce detect?
a human-induced warming of the world's oceans with a complex vertical and geographical structure
this conclusion was based largely on the studies of barnett et al.80and pierce et al.81who extended previous detection and attribution analyses of ocean heat content changes,82,83to a basin by basin analysis of the temporal evolution of temperature changes in the upper 700 m of the ocean and who detected a human-induced warming of the world's oceans with a complex vertical and geographical structure. however, while there was very strong statistical evidence that the warming could not be explained by internal variability as estimated by two different climate models, there were discrepancies between observed and modeled estimates of global ocean heat content variability. a large part of this discrepancy has now been seen to be associated with instrumental errors,84and there is much improved agreement when these bias corrections are included in observational datasets.85
What was the new analysis presented?
link increases in climate variability with increasing food insecurity in the future
What research gaps were discussed in the conclusion?
we conclude with a discussion of research gaps in relation to both the biophysical and the socio-economic arenas
What does the article ultimately want to address?
ultimately to increase the capacity of farmers in the tropics and subtropics to address climate variability and extreme events
this article is protected by copyright. all rights reserved. climate variability and extremes on biological and agricultural systems at a range of scales, and on human health and nutrition. we then present some new analysis that seeks to link increases in climate variability with increasing food insecurity in the future, before considering the ways in which people deal with climate variability and extremes and how they may adapt in the coming decades. we conclude with a discussion of research gaps in relation to both the biophysical and the socio-economic arenas and what needs to be done to better understand the impacts of climate variability on human vulnerability and food security, ultimately to increase the capacity of farmers in the tropics and subtropics to address climate variability and extreme events.
What does the Toronto City Council unanimously adopted?
the process started in september 2007, and on july 2008 the toronto city council unanimously adopted "ahead of the storm", as a climate change adaptation strategy for the city
To raise the awareness what actions were undertaken?
to raise the awareness, the following actions were undertaken (1): * compiling information about what other municipalities were doing on the issue; * encouraging attendance at workshops and conferences to increase familiarity with concepts and issues relating to climate change impacts and adaptation; * participating in the regular webinars of the new canadian alliance for resilient cities as well as meetings of its u.s. counterpart, the urban leaders adaptation initiative; and * organizing meetings with the climate change scenarios network, the public infrastructure engineering vulnerability committee, the canadian institute of planners, and others to help the city with thinking about climate change scenario modelling, infrastructure risk assessment and other issues
How the committee works?
the group met weekly between september 2007 and april 2008 and jointly prepared a broad adaptation strategy. when the first draft was completed, fourteen city departments made detailed and, in many cases, contradictory recommendations, which had to be considered in reworking the document. the outcomes of the process were included in the framework document
the process started in september 2007, and on july 2008 the toronto city council unanimously adopted "ahead of the storm", as a climate change adaptation strategy for the city. this builds on existing programs that provide protection from current weather extremes. it includes a commitment to short term actions, as well as a longer term process for developing a comprehensive strategy. currently, toronto is at the early stages of implementing the strategy (1). the toronto environment office established a cross-departmental adaptation steering group including representatives of policy and programme staff from 14 city divisions and agencies. the steering group is chaired and supported by the toronto environment office and provides updates to the executive environment team (3). whilst some individuals involved in the process expressed concerns regarding the scientific basis of climate change, additional workload and cost of adopted measures, a strong steer from the deputy city manager's office ensured that the group worked together (1). many members of the adaptation steering group had little experience in assessing climate change impacts and planning to adapt to them. to raise the awareness, the following actions were undertaken (1): * compiling information about what other municipalities were doing on the issue; * encouraging attendance at workshops and conferences to increase familiarity with concepts and issues relating to climate change impacts and adaptation; * participating in the regular webinars of the new canadian alliance for resilient cities as well as meetings of its u.s. counterpart, the urban leaders adaptation initiative; and * organizing meetings with the climate change scenarios network, the public infrastructure engineering vulnerability committee, the canadian institute of planners, and others to help the city with thinking about climate change scenario modelling, infrastructure risk assessment and other issues. the group met weekly between september 2007 and april 2008 and jointly prepared a broad adaptation strategy. when the first draft was completed, fourteen city departments made detailed and, in many cases, contradictory recommendations, which had to be considered in reworking the document. the outcomes of the process were included in the framework document
What would the inclusion of forest ecosystems provide?
the inclusion of forest ecosystems within napas has been prominent due to their relatively high importance for local livelihoods (e.g. water regulation, food and fuelwood sources) and for the protection of coastlines (however, ldcs may still need guidance on how to enhance the adaptive capacity of their forests
How would tropical forests benefit?
tropical forestry in the context of adaptation to climate change could also be made more prominent if the napa approach is extrapolated beyond that of ldcs
What would be the secondary challenged that may be faced?
the second challenge is a financial one, as adaptation entails a cost. in some cases, the private sector may decide to invest in adaptation measures, purely on the basis of commercial self-interest (e.g. modifications to tree improvement programs) although this will only come about if it has access to sound information on risks and associated costs
first, we consider that mainstreaming adaptation into national development and planning programs is a prerequisite for adequate action to cope with current and future climate change impacts. there is already guidance on this (lim and spanger-siegfried 2005 thompkins et al. 2005 that can be applied to the tropical forestry sector. in addition, and as the impacts of climate change also threaten the economic development of other sectors, many of which depend on the provision of forest goods and services, tropical forestry could benefit from being explicitly included into broader adaptation policies. as an example, among the 20 national adaptation programmes of action (napas) prepared by least developed countries (ldcs) under the unfccc, at least 16 of them mention forestry projects within their adaptation priorities http://unfccc.int/adaptation/napas/items/2679. php accessed on 21 august 2007). the inclusion of forest ecosystems within napas has been prominent due to their relatively high importance for local livelihoods (e.g. water regulation, food and fuelwood sources) and for the protection of coastlines (however, ldcs may still need guidance on how to enhance the adaptive capacity of their forests). tropical forestry in the context of adaptation to climate change could also be made more prominent if the napa approach is extrapolated beyond that of ldcs. the second challenge is a financial one, as adaptation entails a cost. in some cases, the private sector may decide to invest in adaptation measures, purely on the basis of commercial self-interest (e.g. modifications to tree improvement programs) although this will only come about if it has access to sound information on risks and associated costs. in other cases, government agencies could require the implementation of practical measures aimed at enhancing the adaptive capacity of forests as a condition for granting management concessions. however, funding of climate adaptation measures that generate wider public benefits of only indirect interest to industry or that are aimed at smallholders or other vulnerable groups may require alternative financing mechanisms which may not be currently available. the scarcity of funding underscores the importance of ensuring that adaptation measures are incorporated in the formulation and implementation of national and international initiatives concerned with forests, from broader policy interventions to local research and development projects.
What is shown?
a large range of projected scenarios of hs is shown amongst the ensemble members (figure sm4at
What is the magnitude of projected change seen for each member?
the magnitude of projected change seen for each member (figure sm4) is approximately a factor 5 less than the bias for corresponding member (figure sm1), indicating a low signal to noise ratio
What does the magnitude of projected change seen for each member indicate?
indicating a low signal to noise ratio
a large range of projected scenarios of hs is shown amongst the ensemble members (figure sm4at). while differences occur between ensemble members from the same study, there is consistency which is particularly noticeable by areas of significant projected increase/decrease shown in table sm3 for members a and b, and g-t. robust features of projected change, identified in the manuscript, are seen for each ensemble member. the projected southern ocean increase and north atlantic decrease are particularly noticeable in the dynamical study derived members (figure sm4af). the magnitude of projected change seen for each member (figure sm4) is approximately a factor 5 less than the bias for corresponding member (figure sm1), indicating a low signal to noise ratio.
Why is the analysis of bulk carbonate to be avoided?
it may contain variable proportions of biogenic and authigenic phases with very different compositions
Several scientists highlight the importance of photosynthesis in what precipitation?
carbonate precipitation
What changes in the isotopic composition may have more to do with changes in the relative abundance of components than it has to do with climate or other environmental changes?
stratigraphic changes
disequilibrium - authigenic carbonates many palaeoclimatic studies of lake sediments rely on the analysis of bulk carbonate sediment - or fine fraction carbonate. unless it can be shown that the bulk sediment is dominantly from a single source (i.e. authigenic) the analysis of bulk carbonate is to be avoided as it may contain variable proportions of biogenic and authigenic phases with very different compositions. in such cases stratigraphic changes in the isotopic composition may have more to do with changes in the relative abundance of components than it has to do with climate or other environmental changes. fine fraction carbonate (authigenic carbonate) is often thought to be directly precipitated within the surface water of the lake and its production is often closely associated with the photosynthesis of either macroscopic plants or algae but it cannot be assumed to have precipitated in isotopic equilibrium. the precise mechanism of authigenic (and also skeletal) carbonate precipitation in association with photosynthesis remains problematical. several workers highlight the importance of photosynthesis in carbonate precipitation, macrophytes, algae and cyanobacteria are all thought to be important by controlling the carbonate saturation state. they also provide nucleation sites for
why  the process of acetotrophic methanogenesis is the most important?
because it is the limiting step in the conversion of the organic matter into methane
how it's possible to   estimate the maximum organic load that can be digested in the reactor?
by knowing the sma and the sludge mass in the biological reactor
specific methanogenic activity reflects the capacity of the sludge to produce methane from an acetate substrate under optimised conditions. although there are other processes developing in the anaerobic digester, the acetotrophic methanogenesis is the most important one because it is the limiting step in the conversion of the organic matter into methane. the test is performed in a laboratory according to the procedures described in chapter 25. by knowing the sma and the sludge mass in the biological reactor, it is possible to estimate the maximum organic load that can be digested in the reactor: this load is equal to the product of the sma value and the sludge mass.
What does (SH) stands for?
southern hemisphere
What the climate variability in the high-latitude Southern Hemisphere (SH) is dominated by?
climate variability in the high-latitude southern hemisphere (sh) is dominated by the sh annular mode, a large-scale pattern of variability characterized by fluctuations in the strength of the circumpolar vortex
How the SH tropospheric circulation can be interpreted as?
we present evidence that recent trends in the sh tropospheric circulation can be interpreted as a bias toward the high-index polarity of this pattern, with stronger westerly flow encircling the polar cap
climate variability in the high-latitude southern hemisphere (sh) is dominated by the sh annular mode, a large-scale pattern of variability characterized by fluctuations in the strength of the circumpolar vortex. we present evidence that recent trends in the sh tropospheric circulation can be interpreted as a bias toward the high-index polarity of this pattern, with stronger westerly flow encircling the polar cap. it is argued that the largest and most significant tropospheric trends can be traced to recent trends in the lower stratospheric polar vortex, which are due largely to photochemical ozone losses. during the summer-fall season, the trend toward stronger circumpolar flow has contributed substantially to the observed warming over the antarctic peninsula and patagonia and to the cooling over eastern antarctica and the antarctic plateau. the atmosphere of the sh high latitudes has undergone pronounced changes over the past few decades. total column ozone losses have exceeded 50% during october throughout the 1990s 1 - 3 ), and the antarctic ozone "hole" reached record physical size during the spring of 2000 4 ). the lower polar stratosphere has cooled by  10 k during october-november since 1985 5 6 ), and the seasonal breakdown of the polar vortex has been remarkably delayed: from early november during the 1970s to late december during the 1990s, in both the
What was revised in sessions three and four?
in sections three and four we review the nature of the risks and uncertainties surrounding the cost of business-as-usual (bau) climate change, compared with the cost of emission reductions
Who accuses of overestimating the cost of climate change?
robert mendelsohn [citation] accuses us of overestimating the cost of climate change on the one hand, and underestimating the cost of emission reductions on the other
Do they disagree with Weyant's observation?
while we do not disagree with weyant's observation, the key message of this section is that the risks and uncertainties surrounding the impacts and costs of bau climate change are much greater than those surrounding the costs of emission reductions
in sections three and four we review the nature of the risks and uncertainties surrounding the cost of business-as-usual (bau) climate change, compared with the cost of emission reductions. robert mendelsohn [citation] accuses us of overestimating the cost of climate change on the one hand, and underestimating the cost of emission reductions on the other. similarly (if rather more circumspectly), john weyant [citation] emphasises that the cost of emission reductions is uncertain. while we do not disagree with weyant's observation, the key message of this section is that the risks and uncertainties surrounding the impacts and costs of bau climate change are much greater than those surrounding the costs of emission reductions. that is to say, the highest damages (plus adaptation costs) that we could expect as a result of climate change are much higher than the highest possible costs of mitigation.
What is the name of the method that is assumed to be independent of the degree of ploidy of the study species?
slatkin's private allele method is assumed to be independent of the degree of ploidy of the study species
Are both methods in equilibrium?
populations are in equilibrium and this is not necessarily the case, especially not in the younger population
Is the genetic structure of a newly established population dependent largely on the founding individuals and high similarity with other populations because of current gene flow or population history?
high similarity with other populations might not be because of current gene flow but population history
there is still some error compared with simulation models, but the estimates are of the correct order of magnitude. slatkin's private allele method is assumed to be independent of the degree of ploidy of the study species (kjellsson et al. 1997). both methods assume that populations are in equilibrium and this is not necessarily the case, especially not in the younger population. the genetic structure of a newly established population depends largely on the founding individuals and high similarity with other populations might not be because of current gene flow but population history. this should be kept in mind while interpreting the nm estimates.
how much investment was made in developing countries?
usd 182 billion invested in developing countries
how much was stemmed from domestic sources?
usd 131 billion (72%) stemmed from domestic sources
how many large shares was invested?
the two largest shares were invested in large-scale renewable energy projects (usd 74 billion), and small-scale renewable and heat (usd 22 billion
similarly, of the usd 182 billion invested in developing countries, usd 131 billion (72%) stemmed from domestic sources the two largest shares were invested in large-scale renewable energy projects (usd 74 billion), and small-scale renewable and heat (usd 22 billion). ndbs again contributed the largest single proportion of domestic investment in developing countries, with usd 34 billion, the majority of which originated from the china development bank. the more detailed breakdown of developed developing countries flows in landscape 2013 allows us for the first time to estimate climate finance flows from developed to developing countries (i.e., the "north-south flow"), though data issues mean that our understanding of these flows is still limited. in total, at least usd 39-62
What is the alpha coefficient range in this study?
62 (provides individual support) to .79 (fosters the acceptance of goals
How many items were rated on the Transformational Leadership Scale?
23 items
Who is the lead author of the Transformational Leadership Scale?
podsakoff
transformational leadership. the transformational leadership scale by podsakoff et al. (1990) was used to examine the six transformational factors of (a) articulates vision (5 items), (b) provides appropriate role model (3 items), (c) fosters the acceptance of goals (4 items), (d) sets high performance expectations (3 items), (e) provides individual support (4 items), and (f) provides intellectual stimulation (4 items). each of the 23 items was rated on a scale from 1 strongly disagree to 7 strongly agree ). the transformational leadership scale has been shown in previous studies to have acceptable internal consistency reliability (all cronbach's alpha coefficients .70) and evidence of content and construct validity (podsakoff et al., 1990). cronbach's alpha coefficients in this study's sample ranged from .62 (provides individual support) to .79 (fosters the acceptance of goals), which was considered acceptable given the relatively small number of items in each subscale.
urassic C183 Dorcion of flour is provided by which data?
qualitative evidence for a brief period of global warmth during the early toarcian stage of the early jurassic ca 183 ma, from the time-scale of p'alfy et al (2000)) is given by palynological data from the former soviet union
Where did the geological data come from?
showing a relative increase in the abundance of classopollis corollina pollen derived from a warmthloving conifer (vakhrameyev 1982
What do the fossils offer?
these fossils, however, are relatively robust and easy to extract from consolidated rock, and currently still offer the most hopeful skeletal source of palaeoceanographic
qualitative evidence for a brief period of global warmth during the early toarcian stage of the early jurassic ca 183 ma, from the time-scale of p'alfy et al (2000)) is given by palynological data from the former soviet union, showing a relative increase in the abundance of classopollis corollina pollen derived from a warmthloving conifer (vakhrameyev 1982), and an increase in conifer-derived biomarkers from the northwest margin of australia (van aarssen et al 2000). low-resolution oxygen-isotope and mg/ca ratios in belemnites from the former soviet union also indicate a relatively warm toarcian stage (berlin et al 1967; naydin teys 1976; yasamanov 1981). belemnite d18o values, however, commonly tend to be rather scattered, even when careful screening for possible diagenetic effects has been undertaken. these fossils, however, are relatively robust and easy to extract from consolidated rock, and currently still offer the most hopeful skeletal source of palaeoceanographic
What is apparent as an advancement of spring phenology?
climate change is apparent as an advancement of spring phenology
What lead to mistimed reproduction in many species, including seasonally breeding birds?
this differential shift will lead to mistimed reproduction in many species, including seasonally breeding birds
Why climate change induced mistiming in avian reproduction occurs?
climate change induced mistiming in avian reproduction occurs because there is a substantial period between the moment of decision making on when to reproduce and the moment at which selection operates on this decision
climate change is apparent as an advancement of spring phenology. however, there is no a priori reason to expect that all components of food chains will shift their phenology at the same rate. this differential shift will lead to mistimed reproduction in many species, including seasonally breeding birds. we argue that climate change induced mistiming in avian reproduction occurs because there is a substantial period between the moment of decision making on when to reproduce and the moment at which selection operates on this decision. climate change is therefore likely to differentially alter the environment of decisionmaking and the environment of selection. we discuss the potential consequences of such mistiming, and identify a number of ways in which either individual birds or bird populations potentially can adapt to reproductive mistiming.
Exceptional events are defined as what?
for the purposes of this study, exceptional events are defined as occurring once every 20 years, on average2
A 1-in-20 year event has a return period of how many years?
a 1-in-20 year event has a return period of 20 years
What is the probability of the occurrence of such an event?
in simple terms, the probability of such an event occurring in any single year is then 1 in 20, or 5
for the purposes of this study, exceptional events are defined as occurring once every 20 years, on average2. a 1-in-20 year event has a return period of 20 years. in simple terms, the probability of such an event occurring in any single year is then 1 in 20, or 5%. the critical threshold is defined as the 5th percentile for exceptionally low rainfall and soil moisture, and as the 95th percentile for exceptionally high temperature. these thresholds are normally based on all years of available data, which in this study is 19002007 for rainfall, 1910-2007 for temperature, and 1957-2006 for soil moisture.
What are values?
values are those fundamental beliefs that motivate people's behaviour
What are ends?
ends are the concrete goals to which means are orientated and which provide a measure of how well values are being realized at any one time or place
What are means?
means are those various practices, procedures, institutions and technologies by which values can get instituted
in the widest sense, values are those fundamental beliefs that motivate people's behaviour (for example, love of nature, the right to free speech); means are those various practices, procedures, institutions and technologies by which values can get instituted; and ends are the concrete goals to which means are orientated and which provide a measure of how well values are being realized at any one time or place. any body of scientific established or new evidence can be made relevant to more than one set of values, means and ends, so too can any established or new technology. equally, some bodies of evidence and particular technologies speak better to certain sets than to others. it is thus important to reveal how science and technology can serve to internalize and reproduce certain values without seeming to. in this light, interdisciplinary inquiry into gec must be plural in character and explicit about its political content, whatever the scale of analysis (local or global). if people value in ways that resist reduction to a common metric, then interdisciplinary research into human dimensions must elucidate the various 'packages' that represent alternative conceptions of how to respond to gec. packages will often be incommensurable and inspire debate about preferable future pathways41.
What is GCMs in full?
general circulation models
How does the General Circulation Models (GCMs) simulate the present and project future climate with forcing by greenhouse gases and aerosols?
typically divide the atmosphere and ocean into a horizontal grid with a resolution of 2 to 4o latitude and longitude, with 10 to 20 layers in the vertical
What are the General Circulation Models (GCMs) inherently unable to?
to represent local sub-grid scale features and dynamics, such as local topographical features and convective cloud process
the general circulation models (gcms) used to simulate the present and project future climate with forcing by greenhouse gases and aerosols, typically divide the atmosphere and ocean into a horizontal grid with a resolution of 2 to 4o latitude and longitude, with 10 to 20 layers in the vertical. in general, most gcms simulate global and continental scale processes in detail and provide a reasonably accurate representation of the average planetary climate. over the past decade, the sophistication of such models has increased and their ability to simulate present and past global and continental scale climates has substantially improved. nevertheless, while gcms demonstrated significant skill at the continental and hemispherical scale and incorporate a large proportion of the complexity of the global system, they are inherently unable to represent local sub-grid scale features and dynamics, such as local topographical features and convective cloud process (dibike coulibaly, 2005). moreover, gcms were not designed for climate change impact studies and do not provide a direct estimation of the hydrological responses to climate change. for example, assessment of future river flows may require (sub-) daily precipitation scenarios at catchment, or even station scales. therefore, there is a need to convert gcm outputs into at least a reliable daily rainfall series at the scale of the watershed to which the hydrological impact is going to be investigated. the methods used to convert gcm outputs into local meteorological variables required for reliable hydrological modelling are usually referred to as "downscaling" techniques. there are two categories of climatic downscaling, namely dynamic downscaling and statistical downscaling.
When assessing the implications of climate risks for the economic and social development challenges facing the Bank's client countries, what 3 common practice things can be considered?
it is now common practice to consider the risks of political instability, adverse and worsening trade balances and currency fluctuations
In most cases, how does the climate risk assessment fit in with the overall country dialogue?
in most cases, the climate risk assessment will simply be an additional background element for the overall country dialogue
What options and information should be incorporated by the Country Team responsible for the preparation of the CAS?
the risks of political instability, adverse and worsening trade balances and currency fluctuations
in order to assess the implications of climate risks for the economic and social development challenges facing the bank's client countries, country assistance strategies (cass) could benefit from a routine assessment of climate and climate change risks as part of the overall country background for the client's development plans. it is now common practice to consider the risks of political instability, adverse and worsening trade balances and currency fluctuations. climate variability and change can have similar devastating effects. if these are considered at the right time and appropriate measures taken the losses can be reduced or counteracted. such options and information should be incorporated by the country team responsible for the preparation of the cas, with assistance from the global climate change team and the dmf. eventually, this analysis could draw from and contribute to the information in the climate risk management knowledge base. in most cases, the climate risk assessment will simply be an additional background element for the overall country dialogue. in addition, it could be a quick reference as well as instrument for awareness raising among task managers, who could get a quick sense of potential climate risks to be taken into account in the project cycle (more extensive information could eventually be found in the climate risk management knowledge base). in some cases, depending on the country's and the bank's priorities, the information could also lead to the reorientation of parts of the
What is the actual cause behind the vulnerability of both urban and rural poor people?
the vulnerability of both urban and rural poor people is not simply due to their poverty but, often, to the failure of local government. good governance initiatives are often focused on central rather than local or municipal governments, and international agencies fail to under stand the limitations and constraints on local govern ment
Which are the agencies who fails to understand the limitations and constraints on local government?
good governance initiatives are often focused on central rather than local or municipal governments, and international agencies fail to under stand the limitations and constraints on local govern ment
What are the initiatives of good governance?
good governance initiatives are often focused on central rather than local or municipal governments, and international agencies fail to under stand the limitations and constraints on local govern ment
a need also exists to look at responses not only to climate-change-related disasters but also to move to prevention approaches and gradual adaptation to a new world shaped by climate change, adapting institutions and promoting innovative organisations. within human settlements, planning processes need to adapt to climate change at all levels (eg, cities, regions, and infra structures) to avoid both the short-term inevitable consequences of climate change during the next 20-30 years due to the inertia in the climate system and the potential consequences of non-action or late response. thus, information and systems for better planning under climate change conditions need to be developed, and land-use planning and building regulations need to be rethought. moreover, climate change policies should not be self-contained but need transversal responses integrated with other policies (eg, housing, health, and poverty reduction), and policy responses and eff orts vertically (at the diff erent levels of governance) and horizontally (within the structure of government, and with civil society, ngos, and the private sector). adaptation requires local knowledge, skills, and capacity. households, community organisations, and local government need to have the will and capacity to take action. simply giving money is not the solution. a strategy to benefi t poor people will not work if local government refuses to work with them or sees them as the issue. the vulnerability of both urban and rural poor people is not simply due to their poverty but, often, to the failure of local government. good governance initiatives are often focused on central rather than local or municipal governments, and international agencies fail to under stand the limitations and constraints on local govern ment.
the figure shows world Map of what classification
the koppen-geiger climate classification
Table 1 shows key to calculate?
the climate formula of koppen and geiger for the main climates and subsequent precipitation conditions
The key implies that what has to be determined first?
polar climates (e
m. kottek et al.: world map of the koppen-geiger climate classification updated meteorol. z., 15 2006 table 1: key to calculate the climate formula of koppen and geiger for the main climates and subsequent precipitation conditions, the first two letters of the classification. note that for the polar climates (e) no precipitation differentiations are given, only temperature conditions are defined. this key implies that the polar climates (e) have to be determined first, followed by the arid climates (b) and subsequent differentiations into the equatorial climates (a) and the warm temperate and snow climates (c) and (d), respectively. the criteria are explained in the text.
What do alternative emissions scenarios lead to changes in?
alternative emissions scenarios lead to changes in both the median toe (by a decade or more) and its uncertainty
What two things are ToE a key variable for?
time of emergence, toe) is a key variable for climate predictions and risk assessments
In which latitudes does the ToE occur in sooner?
toe occurs several decades sooner in low latitudes
the time at which the signal of climate change emerges from the noise of natural climate variability (time of emergence, toe) is a key variable for climate predictions and risk assessments. here we present a methodology for estimating toe for individual climate models, and use it to make maps of toe for surface air temperature (sat) based on the cmip3 global climate models. consistent with previous studies we show that the median toe occurs several decades sooner in low latitudes, particularly in boreal summer, than in mid-latitudes. we also show that the median toe in the arctic occurs sooner in boreal winter than in boreal summer. a key new aspect of our study is that we quantify the uncertainty in toe that arises not only from inter-model differences in the magnitude of the climate change signal, but also from large differences in the simulation of natural climate variability. the uncertainty in toe is at least 30 years in the regions examined, and as much as 60 years in some regions. alternative emissions scenarios lead to changes in both the median toe (by a decade or more) and its uncertainty. the sres b1 scenario is associated with a very large uncertainty in toe in some regions. our findings have important implications for climate modelling and climate policy which we discuss. citation: hawkins, e., and r. sutton (2012), time of emergence of climate signals, geophys. res. lett. 39 l01702, doi:10.1029/2011gl050087.
How were the households that participated in the survey selected?
households were selected using random-digit-dialing procedures to include households with unlisted numbers
How many attempts were made to contact the selected adults?
five attempts were made to contact those selected adults who were not home
How were the 2000 and 2001 samples weighted?
the 2000 and 2001 samples were weighted by race and gender within each census region, based on the 1999 and 2000 us census estimates, respectively
the social climate survey of tobacco control (scs-tc) was administered to representative samples of us adults who were interviewed by telephone between july and september of either 2000 or 2001. samples from both years represent the civilian, noninstitutionalized adult population over age 18 in the united states, including alaska and hawaii. households were selected using random-digit-dialing procedures to include households with unlisted numbers. once a household was contacted, the adult to be interviewed was selected by asking to speak with the person in the household who is 18 years of age or older and who will have the next birthday. five attempts were made to contact those selected adults who were not home. the 2000 and 2001 samples were weighted by race and gender within each census region, based on the 1999 and 2000 us census estimates, respectively.
What are some different examples of modelling methods?
multiple modeling efforts--statistical, process-based, and hybrids
Which model can predict where potential colonization could occur within 100 years?
finally, with outputs from a model like shift, learn where potential colonization could occur within 100 years
Who are the people trying to respond to climate change?
we provide the following for researchers, managers, and decision makers to place these results in perspective as they face the difficult challenges of managing under climate change
we provide the following for researchers, managers, and decision makers to place these results in perspective as they face the difficult challenges of managing under climate change. 1. regarding climate change predictions: plan for species habitat to change as projected under high emissions (as this is the trajectory the globe is presently on; canadell and others 2007 but work to encourage lower emissions. 2. it is likely that sdms produced before the explosion of machine-learning tools (for example, around 2005) will be inferior to those produced later. insist on robust predicting tools for species-level modeling. 3. pay attention to the reliability of each species model and even for high reliability models, there still will be errors and uncertainties! some of these uncertainties can be characterized with the modfacs. 4. models involving less common species are more prone to error. rare species are especially difficult (schwartz and others 2006 ). 5. range boundaries are 'fuzzy', both now and in future. core areas of higher abundances are more indicative of potential species behavior under climate change. 6. use species models as guidelines for regional trends. because of uncertainties and scale, they are not usually appropriate for fine-scale management without the regional context. 7. consider modifying factors (for example, disturbance, biological) not included in the models as modifiers to model outputs. use the modfacs as a starting place for species-specific analysis and planning; local-level variations in the species scores are expected. 8. concentrate on the factors you can do something about (for example, silvicultural options). 9. encourage multiple modeling efforts--statistical, process-based, and hybrids--so that where models agree, confidence is strengthened, and where they disagree, a closer look is warranted. abiding by these considerations allows for a careful exploration of the species-distribution models. from this, it is possible to learn which species habitats are present, or could occur, in your region now. this includes indentifying those that could incur the most risk (for example, local extinction), or even become newly suitable for your location l. r. iverson and others under climate change. in addition, the models themselves provide opportunities to learn about which environmental factors are likely driving species' suitable habitat, for example, which species are most susceptible to changing climatic factors. furthermore, with modfacs, we can identify which factors are most likely to modify model outputs, whether they will increase or decrease the changes projected with the species modeling, and which factors you might be able to influence via management. finally, with outputs from a model like shift, learn where potential colonization could occur within 100 years. of course, the pursuit of understanding the determinants of species distributions and climate change responses will continue and healthy debate will push the field to new discoveries and insights. we support and have learned that drawing from the strengths of a multi-pronged approach to overcome individual model assumptions pushes us towards building a comprehensive perspective of how species may respond to climate change.
Are the different models consistent in the regional distributions of global warming ?
the regional distribution of global warming (left part of fig. 24 for ipsl-cm4 668 and of fig. 25 for -cm5a) also shows quite consistent results between the differ669 ent version
Do models show stronger warming over land or sea?
the usual robust aspects of climate change simulations: a 670 stronger warming over the continents (where evaporative cooling is limited) than 671 over oceans
is global warming greater in the northern or southern hemisphere?
a stronger warming in the (more continental) northern hemisphere 672 than in the southern one
the regional distribution of global warming (left part of fig. 24 for ipsl-cm4 668 and of fig. 25 for -cm5a) also shows quite consistent results between the differ669 ent versions, and reflects the usual robust aspects of climate change simulations: a 670 stronger warming over the continents (where evaporative cooling is limited) than 671 over oceans, a stronger warming in the (more continental) northern hemisphere 672 than in the southern one, and in high than in low latitudes in the northern hemi673 sphere. the simulations also show, in a rather consistent way, a weak warming in 674 the southern ocean and in the north atlantic. 675
What are the advantages when the economics of mitigation technologies improve?
there is potential to reduce the incremental burden on households, possibly allowing them to dedicate a higher portion of their savings to investing in new emissions-reduction projects
What are the investiments made by the households?
apart from solar technologies, households also invested in energy efficiency (retrofitting of existing houses and apartments, high thermal efficiency new buildings, and dedicated appliances), electric and hybrid vehicles, and adaptation to climate change
What makes it impossible for us to provide an estimate for these investments?
the lack of comparable global numbers for these final uses
households also act as retail investors of renewable energy, thanks to the emergence of new renewable energy investment vehicles and business models: examples include crowd funding,46 solar leasing in california,47 and publicly-traded investment funds. it is critical to keep in mind that as taxpayers and ratepayers, households typically bear the burden of revenue support mechanisms. any 15-year feed-in tariff payment to a large-scale renewable asset creates a liability burden that is either paid out of a country's budget (such as in spain), or by electricity consumers paying a surcharge for renewable energy on their electricity bills (as in germany and italy). as the economics of mitigation technologies improve, there is potential to reduce the incremental burden on households, possibly allowing them to dedicate a higher portion of their savings to investing in new emissions-reduction projects. apart from solar technologies, households also invested in energy efficiency (retrofitting of existing houses and apartments, high thermal efficiency new buildings, and dedicated appliances), electric and hybrid vehicles, and adaptation to climate change. unfortunately, the lack of comparable global numbers for these final uses makes it impossible for us to provide an estimate for these investments.
How much of environmental change will effect native species?
native species
What are the risks to humans?
growing risks to humans
How can the ecosystem adapt to environment or climate change?
ecosystem regime shifts
background: accumulating evidence shows that the planet is warming as a response to human emissions of greenhouse gases. strategies of adaptation to climate change will require quantitative projections of how altered regional patterns of temperature, precipitation and sea level could cascade to provoke local impacts such as modified water supplies, increasing risks of coastal flooding, and growing challenges to sustainability of native species. methodology/principal findings: we linked a series of models to investigate responses of california's san francisco estuary-watershed (sfew) system to two contrasting scenarios of climate change. model outputs for scenarios of fast and moderate warming are presented as 2010-2099 projections of nine indicators of changing climate, hydrology and habitat quality. trends of these indicators measure rates of: increasing air and water temperatures, salinity and sea level; decreasing precipitation, runoff, snowmelt contribution to runoff, and suspended sediment concentrations; and increasing frequency of extreme environmental conditions such as water temperatures and sea level beyond the ranges of historical observations. conclusions/significance: most of these environmental indicators change substantially over the 21stcentury, and many would present challenges to natural and managed systems. adaptations to these changes will require flexible planning to cope with growing risks to humans and the challenges of meeting demands for fresh water and sustaining native biota. programs of ecosystem rehabilitation and biodiversity conservation in coastal landscapes will be most likely to meet their objectives if they are designed from considerations that include: (1) an integrated perspective that river-estuary systems are influenced by effects of climate change operating on both watersheds and oceans; (2) varying sensitivity among environmental indicators to the uncertainty of future climates; (3) inevitability of biological community changes as responses to cumulative effects of climate change and other drivers of habitat transformations; and (4) anticipation and adaptation to the growing probability of ecosystem regime shifts.
What can be based from commonly used metric to define the Arctic region?
based on a commonly used metric to define the arctic region--the area encompassing the 10 8 c july surface air temperature isotherm--the arctic becomes about 40% smaller during the twenty-first century
What is the decrease in linear trend in percentage?
using a linear trend for this metric, the decrease is 44% between 2005 and 2100
How much smaller does the arctice become?
40% smaller during the twenty-first century
based on a commonly used metric to define the arctic region--the area encompassing the 10 8 c july surface air temperature isotherm--the arctic becomes about 40% smaller during the twenty-first century. using a linear trend for this metric, the decrease is 44% between 2005 and 2100, while comparing the average area during the first and last decade of this interval (2091-2100 vs 2005-14) yields a drop of 38%. almost all of this shrinkage occurs over ocean regions, especially the bering sea and sea of okhotsk. the 10 8 c july isotherm completely encloses these two seas in the early twenty-first century, but retreats to just north of the bering strait by the 2090s, probably as a consequence of the dramatic contraction in sea ice extent in these regions.
What is a key question for policy makers?
a key question for policy makers is how effective current air quality legislation will be in the future
What is described as being shown in Figure 10?
the percentage change in region-wide o3 precursor emissions required to balance the localized impact of climate change (i.e., at each ccm grid point) on annual-average surface o3 concentrations over each htap region is shown in figure 10
Can you describe the parameterizarion by Wild that this is based on?
this is based on the parameterization of wild et al [2012] which provides an estimate of regional o3 responses based on regional precursor emission changes scaled quadratically from the 20% emission reductions of nox, co, and nmvocs applied in the htap studies
given that climate change increases surface o3 in some areas within major emission source regions, a key question for policy makers is how effective current air quality legislation will be in the future. the percentage change in region-wide o3 precursor emissions required to balance the localized impact of climate change (i.e., at each ccm grid point) on annual-average surface o3 concentrations over each htap region is shown in figure 10. this is based on the parameterization of wild et al [2012] which provides an estimate of regional o3 responses based on regional precursor emission changes scaled quadratically from the 20% emission reductions of nox, co, and nmvocs applied in the htap studies. this approach reproduces the nonlinear behavior of regional o3 responses well for emission reductions of up to about 60%, and therefore, the focus here is on changes up to this magnitude to minimize the associated uncertainty. for simplicity, we assume that the emissions of
what does the figure 8.8 represents?
figure 8.8 presents a summary of the concentration profiles with time and position in an ideal plug-flow reactor submitted to constant influent flow and concentration (steady-state conditions
what are the factors in which the plug flow varies?
the concentration in the plug flow varies with time and space in the reactor
Under which condition complete mix reactor simulate plug-flow reactor?
that is why complete-mix reactors in series are frequently used to simulate a plug-flow reactor under dynamic (time-varying) conditions. if the influent (input) concentration is constant
the ideal plug flow is the one in which each fluid element leaves the tank in the same order of entrance. no element anticipates or delays another in the journey. the flow occurs as pistons moving from upstream to downstream, without mixing between the pistons and without dispersion. consequently, each element is exposed to treatment for the same period of time (as in a batch reactor), which is equal to the theoretical hydraulic detention time (arceivala, 1981). figure 8.8 presents a summary of the concentration profiles with time and position in an ideal plug-flow reactor submitted to constant influent flow and concentration (steady-state conditions). if the influent load is varied (dynamic conditions), the derivation of the formulas for the plug-flow reactor is more complicated than for complete mix. this is because the concentration in the plug flow varies with time and space in the reactor, while in complete mix the variation is only with time (same concentration in any position of the reactor). that is why complete-mix reactors in series are frequently used to simulate a plug-flow reactor under dynamic (time-varying) conditions. if the influent (input) concentration is constant, the effluent concentration (output) also remains constant with time. the concentration profile in the tank and, therefore, the effluent concentration, depend on the type and reaction rate of the constituent. table 8.3 summarises the main intervening equations. the following generalisations can be made for an ideal plug-flow reactor under steady state conditions:
When was most of the earliest atmosphere of Mars lost?
during the early noachian
How was most of the earliest atmosphere of Mars lost?
by impact erosion and hydrodynamic escape
What happened after most of the earliest atmosphere of Mars was lost?
a secondary atmosphere was created by water and co2 released to the atmosphere as a direct result of tharsis volcanism, and this may have had a strong influence on climate
it is clear that there are a number of strong constraints on the history of water on mars. they tell us that water was present at the surface early in the planet's history, and within the crust throughout time. they also allow us to construct a self-consistent scenario of the history of martian volatiles and climate, although such a scenario is not unique. the history of martian volatiles involved the following (see fig. 2). 1. most of the earliest atmosphere of mars was lost during the early noachian by impact erosion and hydrodynamic escape. 2. a secondary atmosphere was created by water and co2 released to the atmosphere as a direct result of tharsis volcanism, and this may have had a strong influence on climate. it is likely that volatiles were also released by non-tharsis noachian volcanism presumed to have been responsible for forming the ancient highland crust. 3. water and co2 were lost from the surface and atmosphere system to space, to the polar caps and to carbonate deposits within the crust. there is compelling evidence for the existence of each of these sinks, as described above, although it is not possible at this time to determine uniquely the relative or absolute importance of each. 4. there is a coincidence in the timing of major events in martian history. the decrease in the impact rate at the end of heavy bombardment, the formation of the bulk of the tharsis construct by magmatism, the decline in the intensity or existence of an intrinsic magnetic field, the change in climate inferred from the morphological characteristics of the surface, and the loss of substantial volatiles to space all occurred at nearly the same time and marked the end of the noachian epoch about 3.7 gyr ago. many of these events are likely to have been causally connected to each other, although some of the similarity in timing may be coincidental. however, the loss of atmospheric protection by the shutdown of the global magnetic field
What were the findings of Baldwin and Thompson?
baldwin and thompson [2009] have shown that the annular mode provides an ideal multilevel index for assessing the coupling between the troposphere and stratosphere
Which month was chosen to highlight the impact of the ozone hole?
december is chosen to highlight the impact of the ozone hole
How are anomalies defined?
anomalies are defined relative to a fixed seasonal cycle, as is typically done in a standard eof analysis, leaving a pronounced positive trend in geopotential height
baldwin and thompson [2009] have shown that the annular mode provides an ideal multilevel index for assessing the coupling between the troposphere and stratosphere. as illustrated in figure 3, the annular mode (eof 1) characterizes over half of the variability of the zonally averaged figure 2. geopotential height z anomalies at 100 hpa and 41.5degs, sampled once each year on 15 december from a 140 year ref - b2 integration of cmam. 15 december is chosen to highlight the impact of the ozone hole. (a) anomalies are defined relative to a fixed seasonal cycle, as is typically done in a standard eof analysis, leaving a pronounced positive trend in geopotential height. (b) the global mean geopotential height has been removed at each date, in addition to a fixed seasonal cycle. this removes much of the global warming signal, but some externally forced variability associated with ozone loss and recovery and greenhouse gas induced heating remains, as captured by the gray curve. (c) the anomalies relative to this slowly varying climatology.
How do we predict photosynthetic CO2 uptake and evapotranspiration as described by a process-oriented terrestrial biosphere model?
to answer these questions we combine phenological observations collected at harvard forest, with 12 different phenological models, using a model-data fusion approach
What are the two main questions to ask about the impact of forest-atmosphere fluxes of carbon and water?
1. how big are the different sources of uncertainty in phenological forecasts? 2. how do these uncertainties affect the prediction of photosynthetic co2 uptake and evapotranspiration as described by a process-oriented terrestrial biosphere model
What are the results of this analysis?
with this analysis we characterize the uncertainty of model parameters and model structure. we then project model estimates of phenology forward, along with the associated parameter uncertainties, using statistically downscaled climate projections
in addition, we quantify the impacts of these uncertainties for modeling forest-atmosphere fluxes of carbon and water. the two main questions behind our analysis are: 1. how big are the different sources of uncertainty in phenological forecasts? 2. how do these uncertainties affect the prediction of photosynthetic co2 uptake and evapotranspiration as described by a process-oriented terrestrial biosphere model? to answer these questions we combine phenological observations collected at harvard forest, with 12 different phenological models, using a model-data fusion approach. with this analysis we characterize the uncertainty of model parameters and model structure. we then project model estimates of phenology forward, along with the associated parameter uncertainties, using statistically downscaled climate projections (delworth et al., 2006; hayhoe et al., 2007) for two different ipcc climate change scenarios (a1fi, or high co2
Which are the two major rivers of Central Asia?
amu darya and syr darya
How many people live along the Syr Darya river?
around 20 million people inhabit this river catchment
How long is the Syr Darya river?
its total length is around 2,800 km
the two major rivers of central asia, the amu darya and syr darya (figure 1), were domestic rivers in the ussr until the latter broke down and disappeared in 1991. the two rivers thus turned from domestic into international water systems virtually over night. the syr darya river, on which we focus in this article, originates as the naryn river in the mountains of kyrgyzstan. it then flows through uzbekistan, tajikistan and kazakhstan where it drains into the aral sea. its total length is around 2,800 km. around 20 million people inhabit this river catchment, which covers an area of around 400,000 km2. more than 75% of total runoff is generated in the upstream mountainous terrain on kyrgyz territory, as the river is mainly fed by glacierand snowmelt. the natural runoff pattern, with annual flows of 23.5-51 km3(around 40 km3in the past decade), is characterized by a spring/summer flood that usually starts in april and peaks in june or july. around 90% of the syr darya's mean annual flow is regulated by reservoirs.
What will be required for those who have been displaced by chronic impacts of climate change to return home?
require permanent resettlement. irrevocably deteriorating living conditions
What is required to address the challenges of those who voluntarily moved due to worsening conditions to ensure that their needs are protected?
duty-bearers will need clear guidelines for protecting the rights of environmentallyinduced migrants
How can the international community assist institutions with protecting the basic rights of migrants?
the international community must, therefore, begin substantial discussions about how to realize its duties to protect migrants and displaced persons under conditions of radical environmental change
integrate climate change into existing international and national frameworks for dealing with displacement and migration. the unique challenges posed by climate change must be factored into norms and legal instruments dealing with displacement and migration. especially important conundrums surround: disappearing states and non-viable homelands. * unlike some people displaced by conflict or persecution who may one day return home, those displaced by the chronic impacts of climate change (e.g. inadequate rainfall and sea level rise) will require permanent resettlement. irrevocably deteriorating living conditions * climate change will result in cases that do not fit into current distinctions between voluntary and forced migration. at present, people who move due to gradually worsening living conditions may be categorized as voluntary economic migrants and denied recognition of their special protection needs. in order to satisfactorily address such challenges, duty-bearers will need clear guidelines for protecting the rights of environmentallyinduced migrants. strengthen the capacity of national and international institutions to protect the rights of persons displaced by climate change. institutions tasked with protecting the basic rights of migrants and displaced persons are already under-funded and overstretched. climate change will add to their strain, making the practice of protection even more difficult. the international community must, therefore, begin substantial discussions about how to realize its duties to protect migrants and displaced persons under conditions of radical environmental change.
what could have critically marginalized the Greenland settlements?
changing economies and patterns of trade
what is the real reason for the end of Northern Greenland?
a consequence of successful wider economic developments of norse communities across north atlantic
for what purpose data from Greenland, the Faroe Islands and medieval Iceland were used?
is used to explore the interplay of norse society with climate, environment, settlement, and other circumstances
changing economies and patterns of trade, rather than climatic deterioration, could have critically marginalized the norse greenland settlements and effectively sealed their fate. counter-intuitively, the end of norse greenland might not be symptomatic of a failure to adapt to environmental change, but a consequence of successful wider economic developments of norse communities across north atlantic. data from greenland, the faroe islands, and medieval iceland is used to explore the interplay of norse society with climate, environment, settlement, and other circumstances. long term increases in vulnerability caused by economic change and cumulative climate changes sparked a cascading collapse of integrated interdependent settlement systems, bringing the end of norse greenland. andrew j. dugmore, institute of geography, school of geosciences, university of edinburgh drummond street, edinburgh eh8 9xp, scotland, uk christian keller, university of oslo, p.o. box 1072 blindern, oslo, norway 0316 thomas h. mcgovern, hunter bioarchaeology laboratory, department of anthropology hunter college, city university of new york, 695 park ave, newyork city 10021
How lifestyle commitments should be understood ?
lifestyle commitments and consumption patterns, whether in rich or poor countries, need to be understood in the context of diverse social and political structures through which individuals and groups assure their survival and status
What should we need to develop urgently ?
we urgently need to develop new models of human socioecological interaction to address these issues
What is needed at the political level to redistribute resources?
a structural change, at the political level, is needed to redistribute resources between rich and poor countries
lifestyle commitments and consumption patterns, whether in rich or poor countries, need to be understood in the context of diverse social and political structures through which individuals and groups assure their survival and status. diff erent factors defi ne the matrix within which human-ecological interactions take shape. three key elements of this interaction include: life-work patterns, time and space relations, and prestige and value systems. the intersection of these and other factors gives rise to practices that might support, or in some cases hinder, the ability of some groups to respond to climate change. we have indications, from early phases of environmental stress, that these diff erent dimensions need to be carefully disaggregated and that there are complex feedback systems between them. we urgently need to develop new models of human socioecological interaction to address these issues. governments should address climate change and its consequences. the present fi nancial crisis has emphasised the importance of global governance, regulation, and government cooperation in providing security. baer and singer115 have analysed the systemic structures of inequality underlying global warming and argue that fundamental changes are essential to the mitigation of several emerging health crises linked to anthropogenic climate and environmental change. the move to a low-carbon economy will have global health benefi ts from both reduction in the health eff ects of climate change and improvement in human lifestyles, and these must be emphasised through health promotion. public health messages in high-carbon economies should point to the health benefi ts of actions to address climate change through reduced use of cars, less air travel, and lower meat consumption. climate has no respect for national borders or nation-specifi c government. global governance will, therefore, be a central feature of any discussion of climate change and health. issues will, similarly, not be solved by any single discipline. for example, rising rates of malaria in the peruvian amazon are caused by deforestation increasing the short-term risk of malaria by creating areas of standing water in which mosquitoes can lay their eggs.134 health here depends on responsible forestry practices. a structural change, at the political level, is needed to redistribute resources between rich and poor countries. whatever their geographical location, rich individuals are likely to be better protected than poor people against negative health eff ects through their access to mobility, insurance, and health care. to meet the new targets of 80% reduction in carbon emissions in industrialised countries by 2050, for example, substantial reduction in consumption levels and change in the value associated with some kinds of luxury consumption are needed (panel 6).
How will Andean plant species respond to climate change?
andean plant species are predicted to shift their distributions, or 'migrate,' upslope in response to future warming
What factors will impact plant populations?
the distribution of individuals within species' ranges, the ability of species to migrate and remain at equilibrium with climate, and patterns of human land-use
How many plant species are expected to be impacted?
we predict the distributional responses of hundreds of plant species to changes
andean plant species are predicted to shift their distributions, or 'migrate,' upslope in response to future warming. the impacts of these shifts on species' population sizes and their abilities to persist in the face of climate change will depend on many factors including the distribution of individuals within species' ranges, the ability of species to migrate and remain at equilibrium with climate, and patterns of human land-use. human land-use may be especially important in the andes where anthropogenic activities above tree line may create a hard barrier to upward migrations, imperiling high-elevation andean biodiversity. in order to better understand how climate change may impact the andean biodiversity hotspot, we predict the distributional responses of hundreds of plant species to changes in temperature incorporating population density distributions, migration rates, and patterns of human landuse. we show that plant species from high andean forests may increase their population sizes if able to migrate onto the expansive land areas above current tree line. however, if the pace of climate change exceeds species' abilities to migrate, all species will experience large population losses and consequently may face high risk of extinction. using intermediate migration rates consistent with those observed for the region, most species are still predicted to experience population declines. under a business-as-usual land-use scenario, we find that all species will experience large population losses regardless of migration rate. the effect of human land-use is most pronounced for highelevation species that switch from predicted increases in population sizes to predicted decreases. the overriding influence of land-use on the predicted responses of andean species to climate change can be viewed as encouraging since there is still time to initiate conservation programs that limit disturbances and/or facilitate the upward migration and persistence of andean plant species.
What has been the Vulnerability research in the US focused ?
mostly on the exposure to physical hazards such as sea-level rise related inundation, or extreme heat
What context have assessments also focused on selected factors?
only in the public health context
Who is the writer of this text ?
karl, melillo, peterson, 2009
vulnerability research in the us to date has focused mostly on the exposure to physical hazards such as sea-level rise related inundation, or extreme heat. only in the public health context have assessments also focused on selected factors that affect sensitivity (e.g., age or ethnicity), or response capacity (e.g., social isolation, poverty). many more factors (e.g., cultural, institutional, social) affect the different dimensions of vulnerability of individuals and communities but these have not been explored systematically across the range of climate-sensitive sectors. if adaptation at the local, state, and federal level is to be informed adequately, such information needs to be generated widely, beginning with regions eitheralreadyactively involved in adaptation planning or perceived as particularly at risk to particular climate change impacts karl, melillo, peterson, 2009 ).
How should campaigns be targeted to reach and influence audiences effectively?
to reach and influence audiences effectively, campaigns must be targeted on the basis of audiences' interests, values, and current behavioral patterns
According to the survey, which public believes that climate change is already causing dangerous effects on people?
recent polls indicate that about half of u.s. residents believe that climate change is already having dangerous effects on people
According to the survey, which circumstances cause concern in part of the population?
anecdotally, the frightening projections of rising seas, flooding, mass extinctions, and displaced populations arouse concern and motivate action in some
recent polls indicate that about half of u.s. residents believe that climate change is already having dangerous effects on people or will within the next decade63--an increase of 20 percentage points since 2004--and 19% believe it is a very serious threat to them and to their families. anecdotally, the frightening projections of rising seas, flooding, mass extinctions, and displaced populations arouse concern and motivate action in some, but leave others with feelings of indifference, despair, disbelief, powerlessness, or cynicism. this highlights a fundamental truth: there is no such thing as "the general public." to reach and influence audiences effectively, campaigns must be targeted on the basis of audiences' interests, values, and current behavioral patterns.64,65
What is the purpose of our study in this passage?
the purpose of our study is to test the mediation hypothesis at the team level. composition models specify the functional relationships among constructs operationalized at different levels of analysis (james, 1982; chan, 1998
What is the relationship between teams according to Empirical research?
empirical research on the relationship between intra-team conflict and shared affect at the team level is still scarce. however, some studies seem to suggest that the mediation hypothesis is a plausible one. jehn and mannix (2001) examined the occurrence of different kinds of conflict during the developmental stages of high performance teams. in these teams, task conflict was greater during the middle periods of team life. however, in the final weeks, the teams experienced an increase in relationship conflict and a decrease in task conflict
What is the relationship betwwen task conflict and affective climate according to present study?
in the present study, we tested the general hypothesis that the relationship between task conflict and affective climate is mediated by relationship conflict, so that task conflict is positively related to relationship conflict, which, in-turn, is negatively related to team enthusiasm and positively related to team tension
considering that task conflict, relationship conflict and affect at the individual level are constructs that are isomorphic with their corresponding counterparts at the team level, and that the relationships between constructs at both levels can be specified by consensus composition models, the purpose of our study is to test the mediation hypothesis at the team level. composition models specify the functional relationships among constructs operationalized at different levels of analysis (james, 1982; chan, 1998). the direct consensus model 'uses within-group consensus of the lower level units as the functional relationship to specify how the construct conceptualized and operationalized at the lower level is functionally isomorphic to another form of the construct at the higher level' (chan, 1998, p. 237). in this model, within-group agreement in individual-level constructs (i.e. team members' affect) is used to justify aggregation of lower level scores to represent constructs at the higher level (i.e. team affect). thus, in these models within-group agreement is a prerequisite for arguing that a higher level construct can be operationalized, and that it exists. items that contain personal pronouns like 'i' and, therefore, direct respondents' attention to their individual experiences, if aggregated to the team level, represent direct consensus composition (klein, conn, smith, sorra, 2001). the referent-shift consensus model is very similar to the direct consensus model, but in the former the referent for the team-level construct has shifted from an individual's report of his/her experiences to an individual's perception of a particular team phenomenon. items that contain terms like 'we', 'my work-team' and 'the members of my work-team' direct respondents' attention to team-level phenomena, and if aggregated to the team level, represent referent-shift consensus composition (klein et al. 2001). in the present study, in order to obtain a teamlevel measure of the affect (i.e. a measure of affective climate), we used a direct consensus composition model, whereas to obtain a team-level measure of task and relational conflict, we followed a referent-shift composition model. empirical research on the relationship between intra-team conflict and shared affect at the team level is still scarce. however, some studies seem to suggest that the mediation hypothesis is a plausible one. jehn and mannix (2001) examined the occurrence of different kinds of conflict during the developmental stages of high performance teams. in these teams, task conflict was greater during the middle periods of team life. however, in the final weeks, the teams experienced an increase in relationship conflict and a decrease in task conflict. this dynamic pattern is congruent with the aforementioned idea suggested by some researchers that task conflict turns into relational conflict over time (amason; 1996; amason schweiger, 1997; friedman et al. 2000; janssen et al. 1999; jehn, 1997). sessa (1996), in a cross-sectional study with 30 work teams of nurses, showed that relationship conflict was negatively associated with teams' affective tone, whereas task conflict was not associated with it. taken together, these results are congruent with the idea that task conflict leads to relationship conflict over time, due to the dynamic nature of conflict, and relationship conflict, rather than task conflict, is the type of conflict that is directly related to shared affect. in the present study, we tested the general hypothesis that the relationship between task conflict and affective climate is mediated by relationship conflict, so that task conflict is positively related to relationship conflict, which, in-turn, is negatively related to team enthusiasm and positively related to team tension. taking into account the two facets of affective climate considered, our specific hypotheses are the following:
An important source of resilience for indigenous men and women is?
an important source of resilience for indigenous men and women is their ability to nurture and manage domestic biodiversity
Name a factor that indigenous communities recognized as effecting crop success?
recognizing that crop success is subject to the variability and unpredictability of weather events and the occurrence of pests, indigenous communities have traditionally favoured the cultivation of a diversity of traditional crop varieties over a single highyield but also high-risk, mono-cropping system
What three agricultural systems did Swiderska et al. analyze?
in their analysis of three agricultural systems in china, bolivia and kenya, swiderska et al. found that maintenance of diverse traditional crop varieties and access to seeds has been essential for adaptation and survival by poor farmers
an important source of resilience for indigenous men and women is their ability to nurture and manage domestic biodiversity. recognizing that crop success is subject to the variability and unpredictability of weather events and the occurrence of pests, indigenous communities have traditionally favoured the cultivation of a diversity of traditional crop varieties over a single highyield but also high-risk, mono-cropping system (nazarea, 1998; hanazaki et al., 2000; emperaire and peroni, 2007). in their analysis of three agricultural systems in china, bolivia and kenya, swiderska et al. found that maintenance of diverse traditional crop varieties and access to seeds has been essential for adaptation and survival by poor farmers (see box 3.1). even when planted alongside modern crops, traditional crop varieties are still conserved, providing a contingency when conditions are not favourable.
What is the World Bank doing to help with the ecological impacts caused by the colonial obsession with plantations?
the world bank is funding a eucalyptus plantation in brazil run by an existing plantation company called plantar, with the intention that it be approved as a cdm project
What are the ecological impacts caused by plantations?
plantations have their own ecologically destructive qualities such as biodiversity loss, water table disruption and pollution from herbicides and pesticides
climate fraud and carbon colonialism 7 on a local level, long-standing exploitative relationships and processes are being reinvigorated by emissions trading. indigenous communities, fisher folk, and other marginalized rural brazilian peoples were systematically removed from land during the colonial obsession with plantations. now the world bank is funding a eucalyptus plantation in brazil run by an existing plantation company called plantar, with the intention that it be approved as a cdm project. while plantations have their own ecologically destructive qualities such as biodiversity loss, water table disruption and pollution from herbicides and pesticides, their social impact is equally devastating to a local community. lands previously used by local peoples are enclosed and in some cases they have been forcibly evicted. this was the case in uganda when a norwegian company leased lands for a carbon sink project which resulted in the eviction of 8,000 people in 13 villages.18
What research does this study set an agenda for?
this study sets an agenda for researching renegotiation of social contracts between citizens and states as a primary mechanism for adaptation
What benefits are there to expanding methods in this area beyond detecting and forensically examining evolving contracts?
there are benefits to expanding methods in this area beyond detecting and forensically examining evolving contracts towards, for example, action-oriented research to provide platforms for transformative action with communities and political processes
What does this study point to?
this study also points to the fundamental importance of specific events as threshold elements in turning incremental adaptation into transformational change
this study sets an agenda for researching renegotiation of social contracts between citizens and states as a primary mechanism for adaptation. there are benefits to expanding methods in this area beyond detecting and forensically examining evolving contracts towards, for example, action-oriented research to provide platforms for transformative action with communities and political processes. this study also points to the fundamental importance of specific events as threshold elements in turning incremental adaptation into transformational change. such thresholds are likely to be detected in many climate-change risks. if social contracts can be fruitfully negotiated through enhancing collective responsibility and citizenship, adaptation is likely to advance more smoothly and at less real cost to vulnerable groups.
What Aerosol and Cloud Optical?
aerosol and cloud optical properties were calculated by integrating spectral optical properties over each size bin of each aerosol and hydrometeor particle size distributions
How it is calculate cloud?
it was possible to calculate cloud absorption due to bc inclusions in clouds
jacobson (c)2014. american geophysical union. all rights reserved. 8997 precipitation particles. thus, the model treated both the microphysical and radiative effects of aerosols on clouds and precipitation. the radiative transfer code toon et al ., 1989] was used to solve for atmospheric heating rates and actinic fl uxes over each of 694 wavelengths/probability intervals with gas absorption coef fi cients from jacobson [2005]. aerosol and cloud optical properties were calculated by integrating spectral optical properties over each size bin of each aerosol and hydrometeor particle size distributions. in aerosol particles, black carbon for optical calculations was treated as a core surrounded by a mixed shell ackerman and toon 1981]. uv and short-visible absorption by organic carbon were accounted for, allowing for treatment of brown carbon radiative effects jacobson 2010a]. since all aerosol component concentrations were tracked within each size of each hydrometeor particle type (liquid, ice, and graupel) throughout the evolution of clouds and precipitation, it was possible to calculate cloud absorption due to bc inclusions in clouds. the most physical method of treating absorbing inclusions is assuming they are randomly dispersed throughout a hydrometeor particle. this method was applied in the present model with the iterative dynamic effective medium approximation chylek et al ., 1984], as described and applied in jacobson [2006, 2010a, 2012].
Where can a full list of species loss be found?
for a full list of species loss take a look at the red list of the international union of conservationists (iucn
What are some of the most notable extinctions anticipated for the near future?
some of the most notable extinctions that are anticipated for the near future are those of the coral reefs, the sumatran tiger, the malaysian bear and the western gorilla
Is the melting fo the Artic ice a cause of concern for those interested in the preservation of Artic species?
every year the numbers rise inexorably and with the dire warnings about the melting of the arctic ice sheet there has been growing concern about the loss of whole species such as polar bear and other arctic animals
plant and animal species are being lost around the world with rising temperatures at a rate that has alarmed many scientists. every year the numbers rise inexorably and with the dire warnings about the melting of the arctic ice sheet there has been growing concern about the loss of whole species such as polar bear and other arctic animals. for a full list of species loss take a look at the red list of the international union of conservationists (iucn). 27 there are estimated to be around 1.8 million species on earth, but of those only around 41 000 have been assessed for their extinction potential. some of the most notable extinctions that are anticipated for the near future are those of the coral reefs, the sumatran tiger, the malaysian bear and the western gorilla. for some of these species there will no longer be anywhere suitable to live. others will be unable to reach places where the climate is suitable to breed, feed or avoid thermal stress. 28
What can create gaps in climate paths?
fluctuations around the directional trend of climate change can create gaps in climate paths
What causes a gap to arise?
however, gaps arise if some critical portion of a climate path is only available at a time step in which a species is unable to pass through it
By what year will all species we examined show at least some evidence that they will be unable to fully occupy the entire climate space projected to be available to them?
all species we examined showed at least some evidence that they will be unable to fully occupy the entire climate space projected to be available to them by 2100 because of a combination of permanent climatic barriers and temporary gaps in
given likely dispersal and persistence parameters, fluctuations around the directional trend of climate change can create gaps in climate paths. these gaps can prevent species from reaching climatically suitable regions, even in the absence of physical barriers to dispersal. physical features, such as mountain ranges or desert regions can form barriers to range shifts because they contain areas that will not become climatically suitable for a given species over the time scale of interest (engler guisan 2009). however, gaps arise if some critical portion of a climate path is only available at a time step in which a species is unable to pass through it. for example, aneides flavipunctatus may be unable to shift into its full potential future range because climate variability after 2050 causes the landscape connecting northern california and southern oregon to become climatically suitable only transiently. this leaves insufficient time for the species to pass through the area (fig. 1). assuming different parameters made almost no difference to this outcome (fig. 2). graphs of the potential and occupied range size reveal the instances in which climatic fluctuations prevent progress along the climate path (appendix s2). all species we examined showed at least some evidence that they will be unable to fully occupy the entire climate space projected to be available to them by 2100 because of a combination of permanent climatic barriers and temporary gaps in
What's Stalin's passage?
for all its dogmatic and formulaic tone, stalin's passage captures an assumption perhaps common to historians of the mid-twentieth century: man's environment did change but changed so slowly as to make the history of man's relation to his environment almost timeless and thus not a subject of historiography at all
Fernand Braudel rebelled against the state ?
even when fernand braudel rebelled against the state of the discipline of history as he found it in the late 1930 s and proclaimed his rebellion later in 1949 through his great book the mediterranean it was clear that he rebelled mainly against historians who treated the environment simply as a silent and passive backdrop to their historical narratives, something dealt with in the introductory chapter but forgotten thereafter, as if, as braudel put it, "the flowers did not come back every spring, the flocks of sheep migrate every year, or the ships sail on a real sea that changes with the seasons
Who composed The Mediteranean?
in composing the mediterranean, braudel wanted to write a history in which the seasons--"a history of constant repetition, ever-recurring cycles
for all its dogmatic and formulaic tone, stalin's passage captures an assumption perhaps common to historians of the mid-twentieth century: man's environment did change but changed so slowly as to make the history of man's relation to his environment almost timeless and thus not a subject of historiography at all. even when fernand braudel rebelled against the state of the discipline of history as he found it in the late 1930 s and proclaimed his rebellion later in 1949 through his great book the mediterranean it was clear that he rebelled mainly against historians who treated the environment simply as a silent and passive backdrop to their historical narratives, something dealt with in the introductory chapter but forgotten thereafter, as if, as braudel put it, "the flowers did not come back every spring, the flocks of sheep migrate every year, or the ships sail on a real sea that changes with the seasons." in composing the mediterranean, braudel wanted to write a history in which the seasons--"a history of constant repetition, ever-recurring cycles"--and other recurrences in
What do you need to calculate the counterfactual electricity demand under a scenario with climate change?
n order to calculate the counterfactual electricity demand under a scenario with climate change, one must have a baseline climate and a counterfactual climate. however, if one uses an average of observed gridded weather products as the baseline climate and predictions of climate from a gcm as the counterfactual climate at a future date, the resulting estimated impacts will be due to both the simulated warming and the bias displayed in figure 3. if the response function is nonlinear in weather/climate, as has been shown to be the case in agriculture (e.g., schlenker and roberts 2009) and electricity demand (e.g., auffhammer and aroonruengsawat 2011, 2012), then this bias may be amplified or offset depending on the nature of the nonlinearity. however, in either case, the resulting impact estimates will be biased
What was Fowler, Blekinsop and Tebaldi's conclusion regarding the calculation of electricity demand under climate change?
they conclude that there is no single best approach for all variables (e.g., maximum temperature, rainfall, wind speed) and locations. moreover, they find that downscaled versions of all gcms at a desired temporal resolution covering all regions of interest are simply not available
In the absence of an appropriate downscaled data set, the most common practice is to derive predicted changes for each (coarse) GCM grid and then add these to an average of the historic baseline data used in the parameterization of the response function, what does this approach do?
this approach subtracts out the location-specific bias only if this bias is stationary in time. however, this approach shifts the historic time-series at a location by the predicted change, leaving its variance unchanged
1.8c and the root mean squared error to 2.4c. thus the magnitude of the bias varies by location and indicator used. this bias is especially relevant for studies of the economic impacts of climate change. these studies generally parameterize a response function between, for example electricity demand and temperature, using observations from a weather station-based data set and observed electricity demand. in order to calculate the counterfactual electricity demand under a scenario with climate change, one must have a baseline climate and a counterfactual climate. however, if one uses an average of observed gridded weather products as the baseline climate and predictions of climate from a gcm as the counterfactual climate at a future date, the resulting estimated impacts will be due to both the simulated warming and the bias displayed in figure 3. if the response function is nonlinear in weather/climate, as has been shown to be the case in agriculture (e.g., schlenker and roberts 2009) and electricity demand (e.g., auffhammer and aroonruengsawat 2011, 2012), then this bias may be amplified or offset depending on the nature of the nonlinearity. however, in either case, the resulting impact estimates will be biased. we next turn to a simple approach, which overcomes this issue. correcting aggregation bias the literature has suggested several ways to correct such biases. in addition to using climate models with finer resolutions, the most commonly used approach is based on regression methods, whereby the researcher establishes a correlation between the historical grid values from the gcm and local station-based data and then uses this fitted regression relationship with future values of gcm output to arrive at " downscaled " gcm predictions.16fowler, blenkinsop, and tebaldi (2007) provide a review of the main approaches used in practice and compare their performance at selected locations. they note that there is a large literature examining the performance of different downscaling approaches for different regions and climate variables. they conclude that there is no single best approach for all variables (e.g., maximum temperature, rainfall, wind speed) and locations. moreover, they find that downscaled versions of all gcms at a desired temporal resolution covering all regions of interest are simply not available. if one is interested in daily values, which are important for many economic applications, including agriculture and electricity demand, then a downscaled version of a climate model delivering daily output is needed. such data sets are available for some regions, such as california (cayan 2009), or at coarser time resolution nationally (e.g., maurer et al. 2007) and globally (e.g., maurer 2009). in the absence of an appropriate downscaled data set for the region and time resolution of interest, the most common practice is to derive predicted changes for each (coarse) gcm grid and then add these to an average of the historic baseline data used in the parameterization of the response function, thereby preserving within-gcm grid variation. this approach subtracts out the location-specific bias only if this bias is stationary in time. however, this approach shifts the historic time-series at a location by the predicted change, leaving its variance unchanged. if researchers are concerned about predicted changes in the mean and the variance, then the fine-scaled historic deviations from location-specific averages can be rescaled by the ratio of the predicted variance at the gcm grid in the future relative to the baseline. it should be noted,
What is a result of recent climate change in stream ecosystems?
in stream ecosystems, recent climate change has resulted in extreme variation in both thermal and hydrological regimes
What climate event likely caused the early emergence of the adult stage of the highaltitude stream mayfly?
from 2001 to 2004, a severe drought in western united states corresponded with earlier emergence of the adult stage of the highaltitude stream mayfly
Did reducing water flow increase the speed of the onset of mayfly emergence?
mayflies emerged sooner in a warmed-water treatment than an ambient-water treatment; but reducing flow did not accelerate the onset of mayfly emergence
to understand the consequences of human accelerated environmental change, it is important to document the effects on natural populations of an increasing frequency of extreme climatic events. in stream ecosystems, recent climate change has resulted in extreme variation in both thermal and hydrological regimes. from 2001 to 2004, a severe drought in western united states corresponded with earlier emergence of the adult stage of the highaltitude stream mayfly, baetis bicaudatus using a long-term database from a western colorado stream, the peak emergence date of this mayfly population was predicted by both the magnitude and date of peak stream flow, and by the mean daily water temperature, suggesting that baetis may respond to declining stream flow or increasing water temperature as proximate cues for early metamorphosis. however, in a one-year survey of multiple streams from the same drainage basin, only water temperature predicted spatial variation in the onset of emergence of this mayfly. to decouple the effects of temperature and flow, we separately manipulated these factors in flow-through microcosms and measured the timing of b. bicaudatus metamorphosis to the adult stage. mayflies emerged sooner in a warmed-water treatment than an ambient-water treatment; but reducing flow did not accelerate the onset of mayfly emergence. nonetheless, using warming temperatures to cue metamorphosis enables mayflies to time their emergence during the descending limb of the hydrograph when oviposition sites (protruding rocks) are becoming available. we speculate that large-scale climate changes involving warming and stream drying could cause significant shifts in the timing of mayfly metamorphosis, thereby having negative effects on populations that play an important role in stream ecosystems.
What is the FOOD variable about?
climate change would cause higher food prices
What does mean the negative signs of the estimated coefficients?
the negative signs of the estimated coefficients of food imply that respondents who believed climate change would cause higher food prices were significantly less likely to accept the offered bid level
At the ten percent level which models are affected?
the coefficients of the variable food (climate change would cause higher food prices) are statistically significant at the ten percent level in model 1 and 2
the coefficients of the variable food (climate change would cause higher food prices) are statistically significant at the ten percent level in model 1 and 2. the negative signs of the estimated coefficients of food imply that respondents who believed climate change would cause higher food prices were significantly less likely to accept the offered bid level. this result may be plausible because of the nature of payment vehicle used in the study, i.e. increased prices of necessary goods and services. respondents who believed climate change would increase food prices might have thought that the likely increase in food price due to unmitigated climate 21 21 change would be lower than the offered bid level, i.e. the increased household expenditure triggered by the proposed mitigation measure.
What ways has the subsurface ocean been observed?
the subsurface ocean has been sparsely observed in many regions, and sampling errors remain an issue when comparing observed and modeled timeseries of ocean properties, with the choice of infilling method being potentially important in poorly sampled regions
What is an example of a novel process-based technique for comparing models and observations?
a novel process-based technique for comparing models and observations has been proposed,88,89which separates ocean warming into a component largely associated with changes in air-sea heat flux (the temperature above the 14c isotherm) and a component largely associated with advective redistribution of heat (the depth of the 14c isotherm
What can be an issue in the data?
sampling errors remain an issue when comparing observed and modeled timeseries of ocean properties
however, the subsurface ocean has been sparsely observed in many regions, and sampling errors remain an issue when comparing observed and modeled timeseries of ocean properties, with the choice of infilling method being potentially important in poorly sampled regions.86,87a novel process-based technique for comparing models and observations has been proposed,88,89which separates ocean warming into a component largely associated with changes in air-sea heat flux (the temperature above the 14c isotherm) and a component largely associated with advective redistribution of heat (the depth of the 14c isotherm). this provides a clearer picture of the drivers of oceanic temperature changes. figure 10, from palmer et al.,90
Which is the branch of science distinguishing features of ocean?
fluid dynamics
Which processes control thermohaline ocean circulation?
diapycnal processes
Which subjects are treated in the present book?
i) deriving the ocean's conservation equations from first principles, (ii) carefully considering the issues that arise when these equations are averaged, (iii) describing the many numerical procedures that are used to integrate the averaged equations forward in time, and (iv) providing the tensorial underpinning so that the equations can be transformed consistently onto different grids on the spherical earth
ocean models embody a wide range of oceanic knowledge. there are issues concerned with the numerical representation of processes and of conservation equations on different finite spatial grids. there is the need to respect the smallness of diapycnal mixing and particularly not to allow horizontal diffusion to cause false diapycnal density fluxes. do the model variables represent the eulerian mean quantities, or are they the result of some other type of averaging process? is the boussinesq approximation really made in a model or is this simply a matter of interpretation? should the diffusion tensor be symmetric, and if not, what is the physical justification for the skew component of diffusion? where this book really shines is that rather than simply presenting workable recipes to each of these issues (and many more), the underlying physics is expertly described, usually first in differential equations and then in the discrete representation on the numerical grid. because of this clarity and attention to detail, the book will appeal not only to ocean modellers but to a much broader spectrum of oceanographers. as a branch of fluid dynamics, distinguishing features of the ocean are its rather strong stratification and the smallness of its diapycnal mixing processes. for climate purposes the seemingly small diapycnal mixing processes are very important yet their faithful representation in models has been a formidable obstacle. while we have known the importance of diapycnal processes in controlling the thermohaline ocean circulation for some decades, it is only in the past decade that we have learned how to control the amount of diapycnal mixing in z -coordinate ocean models, and then only at coarse resolution. this goal has been achieved by clear thinking about the conservation of properties in ocean models, particularly the way in which diffusion is imposed. with this book we now have the relevant averaged model equations derived carefully from first principles, and the subtleties associated with interpreting averaged quantities should no longer need to be glossed over. the present book can be described as providing comprehensive treatment of the following subjects (i) deriving the ocean's conservation equations from first principles, (ii) carefully considering the issues that arise when these equations are averaged, (iii) describing the many numerical procedures that are used to integrate the averaged equations forward in time, and (iv) providing the tensorial underpinning so that the equations can be transformed consistently onto different grids on the spherical earth. this book clearly fills a void in the oceanographic literature. the usual development skips the first two topics and treats the averaged equations as given (which begs the question of what the model variables might represent), while the subject of tensor analysis is familiar to too few oceanographers, especially given the range of grids that are now in common use in ocean models. xiv foreword
What does this research represent? It represents an initial investigation of carbon capacity
this research represents an initial investigation of carbon capability, and as such includes only indicative measures
How should additional work be incorporated into this study?
further work should build on this study by incorporating a more complete and contextual set of carbon capability indicators
this research represents an initial investigation of carbon capability, and as such includes only indicative measures. further work should build on this study by incorporating a more complete and contextual set of carbon capability indicators, as well as exploring the links between carbon capability and sustainability literacy (see stibbe, 2009). this could include, for example, individuals' evaluation of different information sources (in terms of bias, agenda, uncertainty, etc.) about carbon and climate change; their ability to budget and plan energy use; motivations for and barriers to engagement in community action to reduce carbon emissions; and individuals' consideration of carbon in everyday decisions and actions (e.g., through ethnographic approaches). through this research agenda, we may better understand the public's (actual and potential) role in tackling climate change and achieving carbon--reduction targets.
What is one reason for the difference between modeled noon and midnight irrigation?
he small magnitude of the modeled difference between noon and midnight irrigation is surprising but may be partly due to the lack of atmospheric feedbacks in offline simulations
Did B04 simulate a cooling or warming over many of the heavily irrigated regions of the world, most notably the United States and Southeast Asia?
as in our study, b04 simulated a cooling over many of the heavily irrigated regions of the world, most notably the united states and southeast asia
B04 also simulated a substantial warming over which latitudes?
b04 also simulated a substantial warming over much of the northern high latitudes
compared to the standard irrigation run, noon irrigation caused a slight increase in soil evaporation, while midnight irrigation caused a slight decrease in soil evaporation (table 5 ). as we would expect, noon irrigation leads to more immediate evaporation before the water can infiltrate into the soil. the small magnitude of the modeled difference between noon and midnight irrigation is surprising but may be partly due to the lack of atmospheric feedbacks in offline simulations. also, there may have been a greater difference if we had allowed for canopy interception of some of the irrigation water, as with sprinkler irrigation. 4 discussion 4.1 comparisons with previous irrigation studies we are aware of only one other realistic global-scale study of the effects of irrigation on climate (b04). these authors used a similar irrigation forcing to ours but a different model. as in our study, b04 simulated a cooling over many of the heavily irrigated regions of the world, most notably the united states and southeast asia. the magnitude of cooling that they simulated in these regions was similar to that in our study: up to about 0.8 k. however, b04 simulated a warming over some irrigated areas, such as southern europe and parts of india, where we simulated a cooling. as in the present study, b04 also simulated a substantial warming over much of the northern high latitudes, although the warming over northern north america in our study was about twice as large as in theirs. b04 found that irrigation caused an average cooling of about 0.05 k over all land. this global cooling is greater than what our model simulated. but our overall conclusions agree with the results of b04: substantial cooling in some regions--especially the northern sub-tropics and midlatitudes--is offset by substantial warming in other regions-- especially the northern high latitudes--to yield a near-zero global average temperature change.
What are examples of climate hazards whose frequency will be affected by climate change?
climate change will result in changes to the frequency of occurrence of climate hazards, such as a heavy rainfall day or a drought
Since the rate of future climate change is uncertain, what analysis should be used to inform future decisions?
the rate of future climate change is uncertain, and therefore decisions regarding the future need to be informed by an analysis of the climate risk, or change in risk
What can risk assessment be used for with respect to climate hazard events resulting from climate change?
risk assessment can be used to assess the likelihood of uncertain future events or 'hazards' on specified receptors and exposure units. combined with impact assessment and valuation techniques, risk assessment can also assess the significance of these events
climate change will result in changes to the frequency of occurrence of climate hazards, such as a heavy rainfall day or a drought (chapter 3 and hulme et al 2002). expressed another way, it will result in a change in magnitude of an event that occurs at a given frequency (e.g. once per decade). the rate of future climate change is uncertain, and therefore decisions regarding the future need to be informed by an analysis of the climate risk, or change in risk. risk assessment can be used to assess the likelihood of uncertain future events or 'hazards' on specified receptors and exposure units. combined with impact assessment and valuation techniques, risk assessment can also assess the significance of these events. more information on climate change risk assessment is provided in chapter 3.
Which tool were used to obtain results?
all spatial and geographical statistics were done in arcgis 9.2 using the pca extension in the toolbox
How many bat species were calculated in SPSS v15.0?
the pca for the 28 bat species was calculated in spss v15.0 (spss inc., chicago, il, usa
What should we do to avoid multicolinearities?
first, we chose which variables to include in the spca through analysis of their correlation matrix to avoid multicolinearities
in order to determine bioclimatic regions occupied by assemblages of bat species a spatial principal components analysis (spca) was calculated using current climatic variables, where each pixel in the map was the dependent variable and climatic values constituted the independent variables (sillero et al ., 2009). first, we chose which variables to include in the spca through analysis of their correlation matrix to avoid multicolinearities. afterwards, each pixel was scored from the obtained spca components (or axis) and was represented in a composite map where each chosen component had a rgb colour (available as supporting information, fig. s1). consequently the colour of each pixel was a representation of the vectorial location within the spca. additionally, species' locations were intersected with the previous composite map and obtained values of the spca axes were then used to calculate a pca for the 28 bat species in study and subsequently determine biogeographic group for each species. all subsequent modelling and projections were done using this biogeographic grouping of species. all spatial and geographical statistics were done in arcgis 9.2 using the pca extension in the toolbox. the pca for the 28 bat species was calculated in spss v15.0 (spss inc., chicago, il, usa).
projections were mostly based on?
projections, most of them based on atmospheric scenarios involving increasing co2 levels, suggest an increase in fire frequency under climate change
state some example for increase in climate change?
for example, a doubling of area burned along with a 50% increase in fire occurrence is foreseen in parts of the circumboreal by the end of this century
which countries are mentioned here?
for canada and alaska the average area burned per decade is expected to double by 2041-2050 (relative to 1991-2000) and increase on the order of 3.5-5.5 times by the last decade of the 21st century
projections, most of them based on atmospheric scenarios involving increasing co2 levels, suggest an increase in fire frequency under climate change. for example, a doubling of area burned along with a 50% increase in fire occurrence is foreseen in parts of the circumboreal by the end of this century.[134]for canada and alaska the average area burned per decade is expected to double by 2041-2050 (relative to 1991-2000) and increase on the order of 3.5-5.5 times by the last decade of the 21st century.[135]recent projections suggest an increase in fire occurrence across canada of 25% by 2030 and from 75% to 140% by the end of the 21st century.[136]
What is the difference between farm households food production?
we take into account that the differences in food production between those farm households that did and those that did not adapt to climate change could be due to unobserved heterogeneity
Why should account for the endogeneity of the adaptation decision ?
we account for the endogeneity of the adaptation decision (that is, for the heterogeneity in the decision to adapt or not to adapt to climate change and for unobservable characteristics of farmers and their farm) by estimating a simultaneous equations model with endogenous switching by full information maximum likelihood estimation
How Treatment and heterogeneity effects are calculated ?
treatment and heterogeneity effects are calculated to understand the differences in food production between farm households that adapted and those that did not adapt, and to anticipate the potential effects of changes in agricultural policy. to our knowledge, considering the existing literature, this is a novel exercise
in addition, we take into account that the differences in food production between those farm households that did and those that did not adapt to climate change could be due to unobserved heterogeneity. indeed, not distinguishing between the casual effect of climate change adaptation and the effect of unobserved heterogeneity could lead to misleading policy implications. we account for the endogeneity of the adaptation decision (that is, for the heterogeneity in the decision to adapt or not to adapt to climate change and for unobservable characteristics of farmers and their farm) by estimating a simultaneous equations model with endogenous switching by full information maximum likelihood estimation. finally, we build a counterfactual analysis, and compare the expected food production under the actual and counterfactual cases that the farm household adapted or not to climate change. treatment and heterogeneity effects are calculated to understand the differences in food production between farm households that adapted and those that did not adapt, and to anticipate the potential effects of changes in agricultural policy. to our knowledge, considering the existing literature, this is a novel exercise. we find that there are significant and non negligible differences in food production between the farm households that adapted and those that did not adapt to climate change. we find that adaptation to climate change increases food production,
What data does the Global Trade, Assistance, and Production (GTAP) dataset provide?
for economic data, it relies on the global trade, assistance, and production (gtap) dataset (dimaranan and mcdougall 2002), which accommodates a consistent representation of regional macroeconomic consumption, production, and bilateral trade flows
For which greenhouse gas emissions does the EPPA model use additional data?
the eppa model also uses additional data for past greenhouse gas emissions [carbon dioxide (co2), methane (ch4), nitrous oxide (n2o), hydrofluorocarbons (hfcs), perfluorocarbons (pfcs), and sulfur hexafluoride (sf6
On which two technological alternatives does the EPPA model focus?
much of the model's sectoral detail is focused on energy production to represent technological alternatives in electric generation and transportation
the eppa model is a general equilibrium model of the world economy developed by the mit joint program on the science and policy of global change (paltsev et al. 2005). for economic data, it relies on the global trade, assistance, and production (gtap) dataset (dimaranan and mcdougall 2002), which accommodates a consistent representation of regional macroeconomic consumption, production, and bilateral trade flows. the energy data in physical units are based on energy balances from the international energy agency. the eppa model also uses additional data for past greenhouse gas emissions [carbon dioxide (co2), methane (ch4), nitrous oxide (n2o), hydrofluorocarbons (hfcs), perfluorocarbons (pfcs), and sulfur hexafluoride (sf6)] and past air pollutant emissions [sulfur dioxide (so2), nitrogen oxides (nox), black carbon (bc), organic carbon (oc), ammonia (nh3), carbon monoxide (co), and nonmethane volatile organic compounds (voc)] based on u.s. environmental protection agency inventory data supplemented by our own estimates. much of the model's sectoral detail is focused on energy production to represent technological alternatives in electric generation and transportation. from 2000 to 2100 the model is solved recursively at 5-yr intervals. the eppa model has been used in a wide variety of policy applications (e.g., jacoby et al. 1997; reilly et al.
What is patent breadth coefficients?
that strategy consists in analyzing so-called international patent families that include patents protecting a given technology in several countries
What coulb be foud using  patent breadth coefficients?
we found, for instance, that on average, one patent filed at the european patent office (epo) translates up to 1.4 patent when the same technology is patented at the japanese patent office. setting the weight of applications at the epo to unity, we calculated patent breadth coefficients phj for every patent office included in the patstat database
Explain the weight of applications at the EPO to unity?
setting the weight of applications at the epo to unity, we calculated patent breadth coefficients phj for every patent office included in the patstat database. these coefficients are available in dechezlepretre et al. (2009
we computed patent breadth coefficients in a previous study (dechezlepretre et al., 2009). that strategy consists in analyzing so-called international patent families that include patents protecting a given technology in several countries. by doing so, we found, for instance, that on average, one patent filed at the european patent office (epo) translates up to 1.4 patent when the same technology is patented at the japanese patent office. setting the weight of applications at the epo to unity, we calculated patent breadth coefficients phj for every patent office included in the patstat database. these coefficients are available in dechezlepretre et al. (2009). we use phj =log phj in this study. 5.3 other econometric issues
What happens to flow patterns and water levels?
as flow patterns and water levels respond to the changing climate, our water supplies will be affected. diminishing surface-water and groundwater supplies, coupled with increasing demands for these resources, would challenge all aspects of water resource management
How will the warmer temperatures affect this?
while there is confidence that warmer temperatures will affect variables such as evaporation and snow cover, uncertainties concerning the nature of regional changes in precipitation patterns, as well as the complexity of natural ecosystems, limit our ability to project hydrological changes at the watershed scale
How will climate change evolve in Canada according to this?
however, it is reasonable to generalize that, for many regions of canada, climate change will likely result in decreased summer flows, warmer summer water temperatures and higher winter flows. this is particularly true for the snowmelt-dominated systems that are found across most of the country
as flow patterns and water levels respond to the changing climate, our water supplies will be affected. diminishing surface-water and groundwater supplies, coupled with increasing demands for these resources, would challenge all aspects of water resource management. it is difficult to predict future changes in the availability of freshwater. while there is confidence that warmer temperatures will affect variables such as evaporation and snow cover, uncertainties concerning the nature of regional changes in precipitation patterns, as well as the complexity of natural ecosystems, limit our ability to project hydrological changes at the watershed scale. however, it is reasonable to generalize that, for many regions of canada, climate change will likely result in decreased summer flows, warmer summer water temperatures and higher winter flows. this is particularly true for the snowmelt-dominated systems that are found across most of the country.(4)
What is Nr life cycle?
nh3 from urea, ammonia or manure application, of nox, and the subsequent re-deposition of these gases and their products nh+ 4and no- 3into soils and waters; and (ii) after leaching and run-o ff of nr, mainly no- 3. throughout the whole nr life cycle, only a small amount (about 4 mtn from the initial 170 mt in smil, 1999 will accumulate in the agroecosystems
Where the remaining will get into?
while the rest will eventually transfer back into the atmosphere (duxbury and mosier, 1993 galloway et al., 2003 ), including the 21 mtn temporarily stored through human consumption of grain (64%), and meat (cafos4820%) (galloway et al., 2003 
Is it possible to reliably predict the fate of a unit of Nr?
 despite current knowledge, it is still not possible to reliably predict the fate of a unit of nr that is applied or deposited in agroecosystems (mosier et al., 1996 ), and the total amount of nr lost
nh3 from urea, ammonia or manure application, of nox, and the subsequent re-deposition of these gases and their products nh+ 4and no- 3into soils and waters; and (ii) after leaching and run-o ff of nr, mainly no- 3. throughout the whole nr life cycle, only a small amount (about 4 mtn from the initial 170 mt in smil, 1999 will accumulate in the agroecosystems, while the rest will eventually transfer back into the atmosphere (duxbury and mosier, 1993 galloway et al., 2003 ), including the 21 mtn temporarily stored through human consumption of grain (64%), and meat (cafos4820%) (galloway et al., 2003 ). despite current knowledge, it is still not possible to reliably predict the fate of a unit of nr that is applied or deposited in agroecosystems (mosier et al., 1996 ), and the total amount of nr lost
What should engagment exercises not do?
aim to stymie research or limit academic freedom
Addressing the ethical and social questions that geoengineering raises may do what?
actually increase the likelihood of a technical program beginning
What is a good example of an engagement exercise?
british dialogue with members of the public about the use of nanotechnologies in healthcare
of course, upstream engagement on geoengineering is not just about alerting the public to risks and dangers they might otherwise not be aware of; addressing the ethical and social questions that geoengineering raises may actually increase the likelihood of a technical program beginning. this is not because upstream engagement offers an early opportunity to allay fears, but because previous experience with biotechnology has suggested, for example, that failing to effectively engage the public led to gm food becoming an iconic topic for broader political debate and controversy.58 engagement exercises should not aim to stymie research or limit academic freedom, but to enrich societal debate and the decision-making process. a good example of this is a recent british dialogue with members of the public about the use of nanotechnologies in healthcare. as well as identifying positive and negative perceptions of the role of nanotechnologies in health, the process provided valuable input that aided the development of the research program.59
Which areas are most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change?
areas located in the north and northeast parts of the sub-basin are more vulnerable to climate change impacts since total water availability is already less compared to other regions of the sub-basin
Which areas most susceplible to pollution would have an impact on whitch important issue
such areas are also susceptible to pollution as economic activities grow and water flows decline, which would have significant health impacts
In light of the antecipated impacts of climate change described in the text,what does this study aim to assess?
in light of the predicted impacts of climate change outlined above, this study aims to assess the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of households engaged in agriculture in lakhwar subbasin to climate variability and water stress
reduced water quality -- areas located in the north and northeast parts of the sub-basin are more vulnerable to climate change impacts since total water availability is already less compared to other regions of the sub-basin. such areas are also susceptible to pollution as economic activities grow and water flows decline, which would have significant health impacts. in light of the predicted impacts of climate change outlined above, this study aims to assess the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of households engaged in agriculture in lakhwar subbasin to climate variability and water stress. recognizing that vulnerability needs to be understood at the local level, and that households engaged in agriculture employ a variety of measures in response to changing stresses and incentives, the study complements watershed modelling with a participatory approach to gain insights through mutual learning and exchange with the affected communities. it attempts to address the following specific research questions: 1. what is the capacity of households in the study region to cope with current climatic variability and water stress? 2. are their responses only temporary coping measures, or would these responses help households adapt in the long run? 3. what are the possible scenarios of interventions (at different levels -- policy, institutional, technological, community, individual) that can help build adaptive capacity?
what is described in Statistical DownScaling Model?
statistical downscaling model 4.1 is described as a decision support tool for assessing local climate change impacts. the model was developed by (dawson wilby, 2007), supported by the environment agency of england and wales
what is necessary for most practical situations?
handling of missing and imperfect data is necessary for most practical situations
how many options are provided for graphical analysis in  SDSM 4.1
graphical analysis: three options for graphical analysis are provided by sdsm 4.1 through the frequency analysis compare results and the time series analysis screens
one of the well recognized statistical downscaling tools which were applied widely in climate impact study is s tatistical d own s caling m odels (sdsm). statistical downscaling model 4.1 is described as a decision support tool for assessing local climate change impacts. the model was developed by (dawson wilby, 2007), supported by the environment agency of england and wales. sdsm permits the spatial downscaling of daily predictor-predictand relationships using multiple linear regression techniques. the predictor variables provide daily information concerning the largescale state of the atmosphere, while the predictand describes conditions at the site scale. the sdsm software reduces the task of statistically downscaling daily weather series into seven discrete steps (dawson wilby, 2007): quality control and data transformation: few meteorological stations have 100% complete and/or full accurate data sets. handling of missing and imperfect data is necessary for most practical situations. simple quality control checks enable the identification of the gross data error, specification of missing data codes and outliers prior to model calibration. screening of the predictor variables: identifying empirical relationships between gridded predictors (such as mean sea level pressure) and single site predictands (such as station precipitation) is central to all the statistical downscaling methods. the main purpose of screen variables operation is to assist the user in the selection of appropriate downscaling predictor variables. model calibration: the calibrate model operation takes a user-specified predictand along with a set of predictor variables, and computes the parameters of multiple regression equation. weather generator: the weather generator operation generates ensembles of synthetic daily weather series given observed (or ncep re-analysis) atmospheric predictor variables. the procedure enables the verification of calibrated models (using independent data) and the synthesis of artificial time series for present climate conditions. data analysis: sdsm provides means of interrogating both downscaled scenarios and observed climate data with the summary statistics and frequency analysis screens. graphical analysis: three options for graphical analysis are provided by sdsm 4.1 through the frequency analysis compare results and the time series analysis screens. scenario generations: the scenario generator operation produces ensembles of synthetic daily weather series given atmospheric variables supplied by a climate model.
What is Dr. Camargo exploring?
dr. camargo is exploring the potential use of agcms and regional climate models in forecasting hurricane/typhoon frequency, with emphasis on the western north pacific basin
What is she also interested in?
she is also interested in the influence of el nino southern oscillation on tropical cyclone activity
What is she responsible for in collaboration with the IRI Forecasting Division?
in collaboration with the iri forecast division, she is responsible for issuing experimental seasonal tropical cyclone activity forecasts in different regions of the world
dr. camargo is exploring the potential use of agcms and regional climate models in forecasting hurricane/typhoon frequency, with emphasis on the western north pacific basin. she is also interested in the influence of el nino southern oscillation on tropical cyclone activity. in collaboration with the iri forecast division, she is responsible for issuing experimental seasonal tropical cyclone activity forecasts in different regions of the world. before joining the iri in june 1999, dr. camargo conducted research at the max-planck institute for plasma physics, germany and sao paulo state university, brazil. she received her ph.d. in physics from the technical university of munich, germany in 1992.
Some of the most significant impacts of climate change on Arctic marine ecosystems are expected to result from?
changes in sea-ice cover
Some researchers believe that the observed decrease likely relates to?
sea ice dynamics and distribution, rather than a basin-wide thinning
Most climate models project that both the extent and thickness of sea ice will continue to decline throughout the present century,(52)eventually leading to?
an arctic with only a very limited summer sea-ice cover
some of the most significant impacts of climate change on arctic marine ecosystems are expected to result from changes in sea-ice cover see 'coastal zone' chapter). using satellite and/or surface-based observations, several studies have documented significant reductions in the extent of sea ice over the past three to four decades (e.g., reference 52), with up to a 9% decline in the extent of perennial sea ice per decade between 1978 and 1998.(53)although significant decreases in the thickness of arctic ocean sea ice, on the order of 40% over past three decades, have also been reported,(54)some researchers believe that the observed decrease likely relates to sea ice dynamics and distribution, rather than a basin-wide thinning.(55)however, most climate models project that both the extent and thickness of sea ice will continue to decline throughout the present century,(52)eventually leading to an arctic with only a very limited summer sea-ice cover.(53, 56, 57)
Runoff from which types of estuaries are measured for observation?
observational series have accumulated over the past 2 - 5 decades from measurements across the world's estuaries, bays, lagoons, inland seas and shelf waters influenced by runoff
What four themes is the review organized around?
our review is organized around four themes: (i) human activities as drivers of change; (ii) variability of the climate system as a driver of change; (iii) successes, disappointments and challenges of managing change at the sea-land interface; and (iv) discoveries made from observations over time
What is the relationship between population growth, global climate change, and coastal ecosystems relative to pace of change?
the pace of change in estuarine - coastal ecosystems will likely accelerate as the human population and economies continue to grow and as global climate change accelerates
time series of environmental measurements are essential for detecting, measuring and understanding changes in the earth system and its biological communities. observational series have accumulated over the past 2 - 5 decades from measurements across the world's estuaries, bays, lagoons, inland seas and shelf waters influenced by runoff. we synthesize information contained in these time series to develop a global view of changes occurring in marine systems influenced by connectivity to land. our review is organized around four themes: (i) human activities as drivers of change; (ii) variability of the climate system as a driver of change; (iii) successes, disappointments and challenges of managing change at the sea-land interface; and (iv) discoveries made from observations over time. multidecadal time series reveal that many of the world's estuarine - coastal ecosystems are in a continuing state of change, and the pace of change is faster than we could have imagined a decade ago. some have been transformed into novel ecosystems with habitats, biogeochemistry and biological communities outside the natural range of variability. change takes many forms including linear and nonlinear trends, abrupt state changes and oscillations. the challenge of managing change is daunting in the coastal zone where diverse human pressures are concentrated and intersect with different responses to climate variability over land and over ocean basins. the pace of change in estuarine - coastal ecosystems will likely accelerate as the human population and economies continue to grow and as global climate change accelerates. wise stewardship of the resources upon which we depend is critically dependent upon a continuing flow of information from observations to measure, understand and anticipate future changes along the world's coastlines.
How was the study sample defined? The study sample was composed of branches from three savings banks
procedure and sample the study sample composed of branches of three savings banks that operated in the same region of spain
What are savings banks? Savings banks are financial entities that combine their financial activity with intense social activity
saving banks are financial entities that combine their financial activity with an intense social activity
How are they constituted? They are constituted as private foundations with financial criteria but with social purpose
they are constituted as private foundations that have financial criteria but with a social end
design, procedure and sample the study sample composed of branches of three savings banks that operated in the same region of spain. saving banks are financial entities that combine their financial activity with an intense social activity. they are constituted as private foundations that have financial criteria but with a social end. thus, they return an important percentage of their benefits to society by means of funding and developing projects in the areas of culture and arts, education, human capital and employment, nature conservation, and social services, among others. in the three savings banks, the branches had the same structure and similar sizes, and they performed the same functions. typically, a bank branch is composed of a branch manager, one or two internal auditors (depending on branch size) and a small number of administrative personnel who perform administrative and teller tasks. our bank met the criteria established by kozlowski and bell (2003) about what defines a work team. first, members of each branch perform organizationally relevant tasks and share common goals and work processes. second, the functional relationships among branch members and their nearness promote team members' social interaction. third, branch members exhibit task interdependence. team members must coordinate with each other to carry out their tasks. finally, they are embedded in a larger organizational context (the savings bank), which establishes boundaries and influences their exchanges with other units within and outside the entity. personnel managers from the three banks were contacted by the researchers and asked for their collaboration on the study. once they agreed to collaborate, the personnel managers informed the branch managers that a study on team climate carried out by a university research team was going to take place in their organization, and they were asked to collaborate in the data gathering phase. once branch managers had been informed about the investigation, a group of trained questionnaire administrators hired by the research team contacted every branch manager involved, in order to arrange for the administration of questionnaires in his/her branch. generally, participants filled out the questionnaires during collective administration sessions held in their own bank branch during working hours. in every collective administration session, a questionnaire administrator explained how to fill out the questionnaires and guaranteed confidentiality and anonymity of responses. when a branch member could not participate in a collective session, the set of questionnaires was personally delivered to him or her and collected a few days later by the corresponding questionnaire administrator. once data were gathered, we used box's m test to test whether data gathered from the three savings banks could be combined and analysed together. box's m statistic tests the null hypothesis that the covariance matrix among the study variables is equal across the groups involved. according to the results we obtained m  1/4  107 95, p 05), this null hypothesis could not be rejected. therefore, data gathered from the three savings banks were combined and analysed together.
What are reviewed elsewhere in these proceedings?
changes in the phenology of autumn migration are reviewed elsewhere in these proceedings
What show general trends towards earlier spring arrivals for many species?
observations made over broad areas such as english counties and those made at point locations show general trends towards earlier spring arrivals for many species
What is there to show changes in the timing of migration and in average laying dates?
there have been studies to show changes in the timing of migration and in average laying dates
this is the area of study for which there is the strongest evidence of the impact of climate change on birds. in particular, there have been studies to show changes in the timing of migration and in average laying dates, many of which are based on observations made over wide geographical areas or over long time periods by networks of volunteers. changes in the phenology of autumn migration are reviewed elsewhere in these proceedings (sparks mason 2004), but observations made over broad areas such as english counties and those made at point locations show general trends towards earlier spring arrivals for many species (e.g. mason 1995, forchhammer
How are the bird species affected by climate change?
8,750 land bird species to projected land-cover changes due to climate and land-use change
How many species are affected by climate change?
at least 400 species are projected to suffer >50% range reductions by the year 2050 (over 900 by the year 2100
What type of countries are species lost in?
land-use change in tropical countries may lead to yet greater species loss
over the past few decades, land-use and climate change have led to substantial range contractions and species extinctions. even more dramatic changes to global land cover are projected for this century. we used the millennium ecosystem assessment scenarios to evaluate the exposure of all 8,750 land bird species to projected land-cover changes due to climate and land-use change. for this first baseline assessment, we assumed stationary geographic ranges that may overestimate actual losses in geographic range. even under environmentally benign scenarios, at least 400 species are projected to suffer >50% range reductions by the year 2050 (over 900 by the year 2100). although expected climate change effects at high latitudes are significant, species most at risk are predominantly narrow-ranged and endemic to the tropics, where projected range contractions are driven by anthropogenic land conversions. most of these species are currently not recognized as imperiled. the causes, magnitude and geographic patterns of potential range loss vary across socioeconomic scenarios, but all scenarios (even the most environmentally benign ones) result in large declines of many species. whereas climate change will severely affect biodiversity, in the near future, land-use change in tropical countries may lead to yet greater species loss. a vastly expanded reserve network in the tropics, coupled with more ambitious goals to reduce climate change, will be needed to minimize global extinctions.
How will the effects of AGF on populations differ from the effects of natural gene flow?
first, agf has an unlimited potential geographic scale, which will be greater than that of natural gene flow for many species. second, agf is directional and involves moving alleles that are preadapted for current or future climates into targeted populations
What is genetic flow?
whereas natural gene flow can occur in any direction and may either lead to adaptation or exacerbate maladaptation
Benefit of gene flow?
finally, natural gene flow often has a leptokurtic distribution from the source population, whereas agf can have any distribution desired. combined, these features imply that agf can, when used with sufficient information, maximize the benefits of gene flow in a particular setting while minimizing its costs
how will the effects of agf on populations differ from the effects of natural gene flow? first, agf has an unlimited potential geographic scale, which will be greater than that of natural gene flow for many species. second, agf is directional and involves moving alleles that are preadapted for current or future climates into targeted populations, whereas natural gene flow can occur in any direction and may either lead to adaptation or exacerbate maladaptation. finally, natural gene flow often has a leptokurtic distribution from the source population, whereas agf can have any distribution desired. combined, these features imply that agf can, when used with sufficient information, maximize the benefits of gene flow in a particular setting while minimizing its costs.
How studies treat ecosystem and species?
when looking at impacts of climate change on biodiversity, numerous studies treat ecosystem and species as a unit and thus ignore intraspecific genetic diversity2,5
What is the most fundamental level of biodiversity?
intraspecific genetic variation is the most fundamental level of biodiversity, provides the basis for any evolutionary change and is crucial for maintaining the ability of species to adapt to new environmental conditions6
What can be said in the light of present global climate change?
in the light of present global climate change, it is necessary to study the effects of past climatic changes on intraspecific genetic diversity to decipher the evolutionary consequences of climate change and its effects on biodiversity
when looking at impacts of climate change on biodiversity, numerous studies treat ecosystem and species as a unit and thus ignore intraspecific genetic diversity2,5. intraspecific genetic variation is the most fundamental level of biodiversity, provides the basis for any evolutionary change and is crucial for maintaining the ability of species to adapt to new environmental conditions6. species may respond to climate change by local adaptation, shifting or reducing range or a combination of these1. in many cases, these changes will reduce genetic diversity in populations and species, in extreme situations to the point where genetic impoverishment will contribute to reduce population viability6. in the light of present global climate change, it is necessary to study the effects of past climatic changes on intraspecific genetic diversity to decipher the evolutionary consequences of climate change and its effects on biodiversity. phylogeographic studies that disentangle population history during the pleistocene and through the holocene warming implicitly reconstruct the fate of genetic diversity during a major climate change and then can provide important insights into species' reactions to present and future climate change5. here we applied a multidisciplinary approach to quantitatively estimate climate-related past and future changes of genetic diversity in the iconic northern species rangifer tarandus commonly named reindeer in eurasia and caribou in north america (hereafter termed caribou for simplicity). this is particularly relevant because climate
In which model changes in the vegetation are observed?
significant changes in the vegetation cover in some regions are observed from the coupled atmosphereoceanland surface model integrations
State the difference in the trees in the Amazon region map of 1990s & 2090s
emissions of isoprene by the other pfts are also important. in figure 1, the simulated distribution of the broadleaved forests in the tropics for the 1990s is shown in the top panel. the areas of trees predicted by the model are in good agreement with those from vegetation databases. however,the area of trees in the amazon region is too large as forest clearance and fires are not considered. in the lower panel of figure 1, the same map for the 2090s is shown
significant changes in the vegetation cover in some regions are observed from the coupled atmosphereoceanland surface model integrations. as an example, the fraction of each model grid box covered by broadleaf forest in the tropics is shown in figure 1, as this species is the primary isoprene emitter in the present work. however, emissions of isoprene by the other pfts are also important. in figure 1, the simulated distribution of the broadleaved forests in the tropics for the 1990s is shown in the top panel. the areas of trees predicted by the model are in good agreement with those from vegetation databases. however,the area of trees in the amazon region is too large as forest clearance and fires are not considered. in the lower panel of figure 1, the same map for the 2090s is shown. the dieback of forest in the amazon region is clear. interestingly, the model predicts little change in africa or indonesia.
What is an adaptation hypothesis?
an adaptation hypothesis is a testable statement that describes how each outcome addresses risks or vulnerabilities prioritized in step 1
What offers an alternative coping strategy for households vulnerable to climate change impacts in semi-arid areas?
energy biomass-based energy production offers an alternative coping strategy for households vulnerable to climate change impacts in semi-arid areas
What leads to greater water use efficiencies and improved adaptive capacities?
energy biomass-based energy production offers an alternative coping strategy for households vulnerable to climate change impacts in semi-arid areas
key questions for practitioners to identify an intervention's contribution to adaptation include: * which dimension(s) of adaptation do the intervention's main objectives address? * how does the m&e system reflect the relationship between the adaptation dimensions? 3.3 step 3 - form an adaptation hypothesis once it is clear how the intervention's key objectives contribute to one or more of the adaptation dimensions, it is important for practitioners to link the outcomes of those main objectives back to the relevant risks and vulnerabilities the intervention intends to address. an adaptation hypothesis is a testable statement that describes how each outcome addresses risks or vulnerabilities prioritized in step 1. for each major outcome sought for an intervention, practitioners should produce a hypothesis that outlines how and why the outcome is expected to contribute to adaptation. this brief statement should summarize the rationale for the outcome, typically by linking the outcome through key dimensions of the intervention strategy to the findings of the initial vulnerability or risk assessment. this should help practitioners ensure that the design of the m&e system addresses the specific climate context, and therefore focuses m&e on the factors most likely to measure adaptation benefits. for example, a community-based adaptation project of the m.s. swaminathan research foundation, included an objective to "enhance the adaptive capacity of the local communities," which encompassed activities and outcomes in four capacity categories.38 the respective hypotheses were as follows: livestock livestock rearing is an important coping strategy in the face of increased climate variability. buffer stocks of fodder (including tree fodder) and good breeds of livestock can be important risk-reduction strategies and can enhance adaptive capacities. energy biomass-based energy production offers an alternative coping strategy for households vulnerable to climate change impacts in semi-arid areas. water community access to weather monitoring and prediction data, combined with community-managed water resource systems, can lead to greater water use efficiencies and improved adaptive capacities.
What was the earilest year records from a country were taken from?
1961
What is the main conclusion of the mentioned study?
in these two regions, new et al (2006) discovered that extreme cold days and nights have decreased and hot days and nights have increased
What did the dependent variables of the study indicate?
this indicates an increased trend in the likelihood of the occurrence of weather hazards, such as heavy storms leading to floods, high temperatures, and both seasonal and mid-rainy season droughts that agriculture and other sectors have to contend with
"exhibit contrasting rainfall variability characteristics: the sahel displays large multidecadal variability with recent drying, east africa a relatively stable regime with some evidence of long-term wetting, and southeast africa also a basically stable regime, but with marked inter-decadal variability" (hulme et al, 2000:9). new et al (2006)'s analysis of the daily temperature (maximum and minimum) and precipitation data from 14 south and west african countries over the period 1961 - 2000 confirms that there is evidence of daily climate extremes over western and southern africa. in these two regions, new et al (2006) discovered that extreme cold days and nights have decreased and hot days and nights have increased. with respect to rainfall, average dry spell length, average rainfall intensity, and annual 1-day maximum rainfall all show statistically significant increasing trends. additionally, there is an indication of decreasing total precipitation in the two regions showing a gradual slide towards drier conditions. this indicates an increased trend in the likelihood of the occurrence of weather hazards, such as heavy storms leading to floods, high temperatures, and both seasonal and mid-rainy season droughts that agriculture and other sectors have to contend with.
What does the UKCIP study point to in regards the Gulf Stream?
the ukcip studies point to the fact that the gulf stream will continue to exert a very important influence on the uk climate
How much will the gulf stream weaken by 2100?
perhaps by as much as 25% by 2100
What are the changes included in the UKCIP02 report?
all of the changes included in the ukcip02 report reflect this predicted weakening of the gulf stream
the ukcip studies point to the fact that the gulf stream will continue to exert a very important influence on the uk climate. although its strength may weaken in the future, perhaps by as much as 25% by 2100, it is unlikely that this would lead to a shutdown of the gulf stream and a resulting p ermanent cooling of the uk climate within the next 100 years since the warming from the greenhouse gases will more than offset any cooling from a weakening of the gulf stream. all of the changes included in the ukcip02 report reflect this predicted weakening of the gulf stream. however, not enough is known about the factors that control ocean circulations to be completely confident about this prediction, especially in the longer term.
What are all decisions intended to bring?
all decisions are intended to bring about some future benefit to someone or something, and involve choices (e.g. whether to act, whether to implement policy a or b, etc
What are essential to making well-informed decisions?
identifying the sources of uncertainty, understanding how they contribute to decision uncertainty, and the management of uncertainties within the assessment and decision-making process, are therefore essential to making well-informed decisions
What does this chapter discuss?
in this chapter the concepts of risk and uncertainty are briefly discussed. the principles of risk assessment and risk analysis are introduced, and their usefulness to the management of risk discussed. different types of uncertainty are described, including their importance to decisions that might be influenced by, or concern the management of, future climate
all decisions are intended to bring about some future benefit to someone or something, and involve choices (e.g. whether to act, whether to implement policy a or b, etc.). without uncertainty, these decisions would be straightforward. reality, however, is far more complex and hence all decisions involve judgements regarding uncertainty. identifying the sources of uncertainty, understanding how they contribute to decision uncertainty, and the management of uncertainties within the assessment and decision-making process, are therefore essential to making well-informed decisions. while not all decisions produce the benefits that were intended, any decision should, even with the advantage of hindsight, be justifiable on the basis of the available knowledge at the time of the decision. in this chapter the concepts of risk and uncertainty are briefly discussed. the principles of risk assessment and risk analysis are introduced, and their usefulness to the management of risk discussed. different types of uncertainty are described, including their importance to decisions that might be influenced by, or concern the management of, future climate. the importance of identifying climate-dependent risks, and their relevance for decision-making, is discussed in chapter 2. the key features of climate change risk assessments are described in chapter 3.
What is important in determining the magnitude of the precipitation response?
the vertical structure of changes in water vapor, black carbon aerosols, and clouds is expected to be important in determining the magnitude and even the sign of the precipitation response
Which study found that a simple regression model for precipitation changes that was adequate in the global-mean was not adequate over land alone, even when land-ocean energy transports were accounted for?
found that a simple regression model for precipitation changes that was adequate in the global-mean was not adequate over land alone, even when land-ocean energy transports were accounted for
What is an example of an intriguing and more appropriate possibility for the changes in precipitation?
an intriguing possibility is that it is more appropriate to relate changes in precipitation to changes in radiative forcing rather than changes in temperature; in addition to the closer agreement then found between hydrological sensitivities for different forcing agents (lambert and faull 2007 ), it may be more appropriate to relate changes in energy fluxes to one another than to changes in temperature
considerable progress has been made in quantifying the different feedbacks that contribute to changes in global-mean precipitation. the results presented here [extending the analysis of previdi 2010 )] suggest that cloud radiative feedbacks are a primary contributor to the inter-model scatter in the response of precipitation. further characterization of the sources of uncertainty in the response of precipitation is desirable, with the aim of clarifying the extent to which these are similar to the sources of uncertainty for climate sensitivity and of identifying the processes whose parameterization is most problematic in this context. the need to include the changes in surface sensible heat fluxes (unless the free-atmospheric radiative constraint is proven adequate) distinguishes the problem from that of toa radiative feedbacks, and it is important to develop a better understanding of the response of surface sensible heat fluxes on different timescales and for different forcings (cf., liepert and previdi 2009 ). the different responses to different forcing agents have also been described, including recent progress in quantifying the fast response of precipitation to different types of aerosol forcing. the vertical structure of changes in water vapor, black carbon aerosols, and clouds is expected to be important in determining the magnitude and even the sign of the precipitation response. the combination of slow and fast responses means that it is not necessarily straightforward to relate observed or simulated transient changes in precipitation to changes in temperature. an intriguing possibility is that it is more appropriate to relate changes in precipitation to changes in radiative forcing rather than changes in temperature; in addition to the closer agreement then found between hydrological sensitivities for different forcing agents (lambert and faull 2007 ), it may be more appropriate to relate changes in energy fluxes to one another than to changes in temperature. we have discussed how the energetic perspective on global-mean precipitation changes may be extended to regional precipitation changes by including horizontal energy fluxes (dse fluxes) in the analysis. one important question that could be addressed in such a framework is the extent to which energetics can be used to give a simple constraint on changes in precipitation over land (for example, in terms of radiative forcings and changes in surface temperature). such a constraint would be particularly useful because many of the available historical observations of precipitation are over land rather than ocean. lambert and allen 2009 found that a simple regression model for precipitation changes that was adequate in the global-mean was not adequate over land alone, even when land-ocean energy transports were accounted for. nonetheless, starting from the full local energy budget, it should be possible to systematically make approximations to derive the minimal energetic model needed to account for changes in precipitation over land. currently available observations do not allow us to definitively link changes in globalmean precipitation with changes in the radiative energy budget of the atmosphere. uncertainties arise for both the observed changes in radiative fluxes and precipitation, and more extensive and longer-term observations are clearly desirable. the observations we do have raise a number of important questions. for example, what sets the different autocorrelation timescales of global-mean precipitation, column water vapor, and net radiative cooling? and what are the contributions of different forcing agents to the observed hydrological sensitivity over different time periods? these basic questions are important for understanding observations of ongoing changes in the global hydrological cycle. progress could be made on several of the open questions identified here using simulations which have recently become available from the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5. in particular, the experiments designed to probe fast and slow responses and the impacts of changes in clouds and aerosols could be used to better understand precipitation responses in different models and emissions scenarios.
In what areas of ENSO physics was progressed in this study?
further progress has been made in the fundamental understanding of enso physics, particularly in the area concerning the effect of atmospheric internal variability (both in the tropics and extratropics) on the development and maintaince of enso
Is it possible to summarize the major progress made in Pacific ENSO?
some of the major progress made in pacific enso and its decadal changes during the initial phase of clivar can be briefly summarized as follows
What were two major areas of progress made in Pacific Enso?
some of the major progress made in pacific enso and its decadal changes during the initial phase of clivar can be briefly summarized as follows. 1) further progress has been made in the fundamental understanding of enso physics, particularly in the area concerning the effect of atmospheric internal variability (both in the tropics and extratropics) on the development and maintaince of enso. this has led to a better understanding of how atmospheric internal variability can limit enso predictability. 2) although many issues remain unresolved, the early years of clivar have witnessed a number of advances in documenting decadal changes in enso and in understanding the underlying processes of these changes. a wide range of theoretical frameworks have been proposed to understand the dynamics of the low-frequency variability of enso
some of the major progress made in pacific enso and its decadal changes during the initial phase of clivar can be briefly summarized as follows. 1) further progress has been made in the fundamental understanding of enso physics, particularly in the area concerning the effect of atmospheric internal variability (both in the tropics and extratropics) on the development and maintaince of enso. this has led to a better understanding of how atmospheric internal variability can limit enso predictability. 2) although many issues remain unresolved, the early years of clivar have witnessed a number of advances in documenting decadal changes in enso and in understanding the underlying processes of these changes. a wide range of theoretical frameworks have been proposed to understand the dynamics of the low-frequency variability of enso,
How many industries are reduced?
significant reductions are observed in the fishing, gas, rice and other industries
Makes any ratings ices?
ices produces estimates of carbon dioxide (co2), nitrous oxide (n2o) and methane (ch4
Any emission becomes smaller
total emissions of greenhouse gases turn out to be slightly smaller
in quantity terms, electricity is the largest growing industry, whereas wheat production first increases, then declines. significant reductions are observed in the fishing, gas, rice and other industries. prices increases in most agricultural industries, particularly in rice and cereals, whereas prices are lower in the energy sector, most notably for oil, oil products and gas.an interesting question is whether emissions of greenhouse gases are affected by the changing growth of the world economy. ices produces estimates of carbon dioxide (co2), nitrous oxide (n2o) and methane (ch4). figures 9, 10, 11 illustrate the percentage changes for these three gases between the two scenarios. figure 9 - differences in co2 emissions we can see that emissions increase in some countries, and decrease in some other countries. there are quite small global variations, and this is good news for climatologists, adopting some given socio-economic scenarios for their analyses. they do not need to revise their assumptions about anthropogenic emissions. more precisely, considering the different size and baseline volume of emissions, total emissions of greenhouse gases turn out to be slightly smaller, once the climate change feedback on the economy is taken into account.
How many case studies were undertaken in the Karst mountains in south-west China, coastal Kenya, and the Bolivian Andes?
three case studies undertaken in karst mountains in south-west china, coastal kenya, and the bolivian andes, provide insight into the role of traditional knowledge and traditional crop varieties in adaptation to climate change
What are the three traditional varieties of foods resistant to the climate change?
traditional varieties used include drought and wind-resistant maize in south-west china; maize resistant to unpredictable weather and new pests in coastal kenya; and potato varieties in bolivia that are more resistant to new pests and lack of rainfall
What do the findings show about the indigenous farmers?
the findings show that indigenous farmers in these regions are already severely impacted by changes in climate, including drought, with serious consequences for crop production and food security
swiderska et al. carried out participatory research with indigenous communities on the impacts of climate change. they also assessed the role of traditional knowledge (tk) and related agrobiodiversity, landscapes, cultural and spiritual values and customary laws in climate change adaptation. three case studies undertaken in karst mountains in south-west china, coastal kenya, and the bolivian andes, provide insight into the role of traditional knowledge and traditional crop varieties in adaptation to climate change. the findings show that indigenous farmers in these regions are already severely impacted by changes in climate, including drought, with serious consequences for crop production and food security. in each case, the maintenance of diverse traditional crop varieties and access to seeds has been essential for adaptation and survival by poor farmers. traditional varieties used include drought and wind-resistant maize in south-west china; maize resistant to unpredictable weather and new pests in coastal kenya; and potato varieties in bolivia that are more resistant to new pests and lack of rainfall. all three cases found that traditional varieties have the advantage of being cheap and easily accessible, as they come from
What is UMUKCA ?
umukca is a vertically extended version of the met of fi ce's um 6.1 in a con fi guration similar to hadgem1 (johns et al. 2006) combined with the ukca stratospheric chemistry module (morgenstern et al. 2008, 2009
Does the model use the hydrostatic approximation ?
the model does not use the hydrostatic approximation and uses a non-families formulation of chemistry
How do the two model versions used here differ?
the two model versions used here differ in the use of some chemical kinetic data, the treatment of removal of inorganic halogen compounds in the troposphere, and stratospheric aerosol radiative heating in ref-b1 (see below
umukca is a vertically extended version of the met of fi ce's um 6.1 in a con fi guration similar to hadgem1 (johns et al. 2006) combined with the ukca stratospheric chemistry module (morgenstern et al. 2008, 2009). the model does not use the hydrostatic approximation and uses a non-families formulation of chemistry. umukca does not impose explicit diffusion and also does not have a sponge layer. chemical water vapour production or loss is ignored in the hydrology scheme and instead a parameterisation of methane oxidation (untch et al. 1998) is used. also water vapour is imposed at the tropical tropopause, meaning that umukca does not have a tape recorder signal in the water vapour fi eld. the two model versions used here differ in the use of some chemical kinetic data, the treatment of removal of inorganic halogen compounds in the troposphere, and stratospheric aerosol radiative heating in ref-b1 (see below). in umukca-meto, washout of inorganic halogen is incorporated incorrectly. in umukca-ucam, instead of explicit washout inorganic halogen is forced to 0 at the surface. umukca-ucam does not have heating associated with the presence of stratospheric aerosol. chapter 2: chemistry climate models and scenarios 43 umukca did not participate in ccmval-1.
What principle suggests it is prudent to deal with scientific uncertainty by developing contingency plans and adopting adaptive management strategies?
this would be in accordance with the "precautionary principle," which holds that action should be taken to reduce the risk of harm to the public from potential threats such as climate change, despite the absence of 100 percent scientific certainty about all aspects of the threat
Which California governor referred to the precautionary principle with a metaphor?
governor arnold schwarzenegger of california referred to the principle with a metaphor when he said: "if 98 doctors say my son is ill and needs medication
it is also important to recognize and emphasize that scientific uncertainty alone is not an adequate justification for inaction or business-as-usual policies and behaviors. rather, it suggests that, at a minimum, it would be prudent to develop contingency plans and adopt adaptive management strategies. this would be in accordance with the "precautionary principle," which holds that action should be taken to reduce the risk of harm to the public from potential threats such as climate change, despite the absence of 100 percent scientific certainty about all aspects of the threat. the precautionary principle has been considered internationally, including the 1992 united nations framework convention on climate change, which states that countries should "take precautionary measures to anticipate, prevent or minimize the causes of climate change and mitigate its adverse effects. where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty should not be used as a reason for postponing such measures..." governor arnold schwarzenegger of california referred to the principle with a metaphor when he said: "if 98 doctors say my son is ill and needs medication
Short note  participative scenario planning and backcasting?
developing a long-term vision together is an important prerequisite to bring about change. this can be summarized as participative scenario planning and backcasting
Explain backcasting?
this approach aims to envision a coherent future picture for the long term together with the actors/ stakeholders involved and from that, by working backwards (backcasting) to arrive at a plan of action for that period (i.e. for the short term
Describe the IWRM?
this process begins by involving the most relevant actors (open and inclusive development), and doing so as early as possible in the process (van leeuwen and vermeire 2007 ). there are many actors in iwrm, as described in the excellent training modules of switch (philip et al. 2011 ), the guide for water governance (undp 2013 and the oecd 2011a 2015b 
developing a long-term vision together is an important prerequisite to bring about change. this can be summarized as participative scenario planning and backcasting. this approach aims to envision a coherent future picture for the long term together with the actors/ stakeholders involved and from that, by working backwards (backcasting) to arrive at a plan of action for that period (i.e. for the short term). this process begins by involving the most relevant actors (open and inclusive development), and doing so as early as possible in the process (van leeuwen and vermeire 2007 ). there are many actors in iwrm, as described in the excellent training modules of switch (philip et al. 2011 ), the guide for water governance (undp 2013 and the oecd 2011a 2015b ).
Which figure shows the relationship between profits per acre and growing season degree?
figure 5a visually explores the relationship between profits per acre and growing season degree days using data the balanced sample of counties from the 1987-2002 censuses.33
What function type is used to model degree days?
third, the modeling of degree days with a quadratic provides a good approximation to the less parametric approach
What is the time range of the data used in the model?
using data the balanced sample of counties from the 1987-2002
b. estimates of the impact of climate change from local variation in weather we now turn to our preferred approach that relies on annual fluctuations in weather to estimate the impact of climate change on agricultural profits. to provide intuition for the subsequent regression results, figure 5a visually explores the relationship between profits per acre and growing season degree days using data the balanced sample of counties from the 1987-2002 censuses.33 the figure plots the results from 4 separate regressions for county-level profits per acre, all of which are weighted by total county-level agricultural acres. the line "year fe [decile]" plots the parameter estimates on indicator variables for deciles of the distribution of growing season degree days at the midpoint of each decile's range. as the title of the line indicates, this regression also includes year fixed effects. the next two lines repeat this exercise but include year and county fixed effects and state by year and county fixed effects, respectively. the final line replaces degree day decile indicators with a quadratic in degree days and plots the conditional means at the midpoints of each decile's range. it is labeled "state by year county fe [quadratic]." there are several important findings in this graph. first, in the "year fe" line there is tremendous variation in profits per acre. notably, it peaks in the 6th decile (midpoint 2,697 degree days), which includes the overall mean of roughly 2,850. second, the addition of county fixed effects to the specification greatly reduces the variation in profits per acre. further, the inclusion of state by year fixed effects further mitigates it. this finding is consistent with the hedonic results that temperature is confounded by many other factors and a failure to adjust for them will lead to severely biased estimates of its effect. third, the modeling of degree days with a quadratic provides a good approximation to the less parametric approach. fourth, and most importantly, the adjusted models show that even relatively large changes in degree days will have modest effects on profits per acre. this foreshadows the degree day results from the estimation of equation (4). figure 5b repeats this exercise for precipitation and leads to similar conclusions. it is evident
what is 7 DICE?
7 dice is a ramseycasskoopmans growth model that has an aggregate world economy interacting with a climate module
how is gross economic production determined?
gross economic output (or potential gross world product) is determined by an endogenous capital stock, an exogenously growing labor force, and exogenously improving production technology
what does gross production produce?
gross output produces carbon dioxide (co2) emissions
we now consider the effect of climate tipping points on the optimal carbon tax. the optimal carbon tax equals the social cost of carbon when evaluated along the optimal policy path in a welfare-maximizing integrated assessment model. we reformulate the benchmark dynamic integrated model of climate and the economy (dice) from nordhaus (2008) as an infinite-horizon dynamic programming problem with a tipping point in the climate system and optimal learning about the threshold that triggers a tipping point.7 dice is a ramseycasskoopmans growth model that has an aggregate world economy interacting with a climate module (figure 1). gross economic output (or potential gross world product) is determined by an endogenous capital stock, an exogenously growing labor force, and exogenously improving production technology. gross output produces carbon dioxide (co2) emissions. non-abated co2 emissions accumulate in the atmosphere and ultimately translate into global warming, which causes damage proportional to world output. cumulative temperature change reduces the total output available for allocation by the policymaker. the control variables
What are CDM processes?
other cdm processes relate to efforts to decrease carbon emissions as a result of deforestation
what exactly is deforestation?
in the american west the kind of fire that counts as "deforestation" is subject to considerable debate among public officials. small fires may help prevent very large-scale forest fires in regions where the forest ecology has developed in a high-frequency, low-severity fire regime (covington, 2000; fule et al., 2004; odion and hanson, 2006
Describe carbon for the atmosphere?
the california climate action registry,11for example, considers all thinning of forests to send carbon to the atmosphere even though thinning reduces the risk of an even greater fire burning down an entire stand. "if, by contrast, that same forest is not thinned and instead experiences a catastrophic fire, the c stock baseline is simply reduced, as if no co2 emissions had occurred during the fire" (hurteau et al., 2008). scientists criticize the carbon accounting methodology as a "one size fits all" policy that does not
other cdm processes relate to efforts to decrease carbon emissions as a result of deforestation. but what exactly is deforestation? in the american west the kind of fire that counts as "deforestation" is subject to considerable debate among public officials. small fires may help prevent very large-scale forest fires in regions where the forest ecology has developed in a high-frequency, low-severity fire regime (covington, 2000; fule et al., 2004; odion and hanson, 2006). the california climate action registry,11for example, considers all thinning of forests to send carbon to the atmosphere even though thinning reduces the risk of an even greater fire burning down an entire stand. "if, by contrast, that same forest is not thinned and instead experiences a catastrophic fire, the c stock baseline is simply reduced, as if no co2 emissions had occurred during the fire" (hurteau et al., 2008). scientists criticize the carbon accounting methodology as a "one size fits all" policy that does not
What is the case being referenced?
this should, from what we have seen in the coca-cola case above, be done using calculations of current water resources
What major world issue is this company being investigated for?
be done using calculations of current water resources, under future climate scenarios, to evaluate the reducing capacity of the environment to support too great a demand on it
What is the basic human right being fought for?
the second issue is that clear laws should exist on the apportioning of the available water to ensure that the basic human right to clean water is maintained for as long as is humanly possible
the first is unsustainable development - the project exceeding the environmental capacity of the area to support it. this should, from what we have seen in the coca-cola case above, be done using calculations of current water resources, under future climate scenarios, to evaluate the reducing capacity of the environment to support too great a demand on it. the capacity calculations should be produced at the planning stage as part of the sustainability statement of a project and the decisions to reject plants like that at kochi taken before too great a loss is incurred. <s121>* the second issue is that clear laws should exist on the apportioning of the available water to ensure that the basic human right to clean water is maintained for as long as is humanly possible. 12
What are the climate change impacts that make Seaports location vulnerable?
seaports are located in vulnerable areas to climate change impacts: on coasts susceptible to sea-level rise and storms or at mouths of rivers susceptible to flooding
What climate impacts will result in more extreme events at many seaports?
climate impacts, like a projected slr of .6 m to 2 m and doubling of category 4 and 5 hurricanes by 2100, will result in more extreme events at many seaports
What does the planned rapid expansion of ports indicates?
the planned rapid expansion of ports reported by the survey respondents indicates that adaptation measures should be considered as ports construct new infrastructure that may still be in use at the end of the century
seaports are located in vulnerable areas to climate change impacts: on coasts susceptible to sea-level rise and storms or at mouths of rivers susceptible to flooding. they serve a vital function within the local, regional, and global economy. their locations in the heart of sensitive estuarine environments make it an imperative to minimize the impacts of natural hazards. climate impacts, like a projected slr of .6 m to 2 m and doubling of category 4 and 5 hurricanes by 2100, will result in more extreme events at many seaports. to assess the current state of knowledge on this issue, we surveyed port authorities from around the world about how administrators felt climate change might impact their operations, what sea-level change would create operational problems, and how they planned to adapt to new environmental conditions. the planned rapid expansion of ports reported by the survey respondents indicates that adaptation measures should be considered as ports construct new infrastructure that may still be in use at the end of the century. respondents agreed that the ports community needs to address this issue and most felt relatively uninformed about potential climate impacts. although most ports felt that slr would not be an issue at their port this century, sea-level rise was nevertheless an issue of great concern. our results suggest opportunities for the scientific community
What are the core ideas?
beginning with defining a proposed policy or policies, identifying vulnerabilities of these policies under multiple views of the future, seeking in particular those futures under which the policies fail to meet their goals, identifying potential responses to these vulnerabilities, and organizing scenarios to help decision makers determine the circumstances under which they would adopt these responses
What has increased recently?
applying these kinds of approaches
What  growing recognition factors did the paragraph mention?
importance of extreme and unanticipated events and the need to develop decision support processes that can engage multiple stakeholders with diverse perspectives.108
these share a number of core ideas, beginning with defining a proposed policy or policies, identifying vulnerabilities of these policies under multiple views of the future, seeking in particular those futures under which the policies fail to meet their goals, identifying potential responses to these vulnerabilities, and organizing scenarios to help decision makers determine the circumstances under which they would adopt these responses. interest in applying these kinds of approaches has increased recently, due to growing recognition of factors such as the importance of extreme and unanticipated events and the need to develop decision support processes that can engage multiple stakeholders with diverse perspectives.108
what is the price of a oil barrel on  11 July 2008 ?
on 11 july 2008 a barrel of oil reached $147
what is the price of a oil barrel on August 2008?
plunged to $112 a barrel
What market around the world are see-sawing at an astounding rate?
markets for energy
markets for energy around the world are see-sawing at an astounding rate. on 11 july 2008 a barrel of oil reached $147 and within a month had plunged to $112 a barrel. while spot prices fluctuate wildly energy prices at the plug do not and the inexorable rise in the cost of gas and electricity has meant that the average energy costs for a household have more than doubled in five years and unprecedented hikes in energy costs have become commonplace. british gas announced a further 40% increase in bills in july 2008 and other companies followed with further rises. as world energy prices then plummeted commensurate falls in energy prices for building owners did not always follow as the markets hoarded profits where they could be gained. whether energy prices catch up on falling market prices as fast as they do on rising ones remains to be seen.
Demonstration of event history analysis model ?
the event history analysis model demonstrates strong support for the internal determinants model but no support for the regional diffusion model
Demonstration of model 2 ?
model 2 demonstrates significance for the carbon dioxide intensity parameter in the expected directions
Results in study of model 1 ?
the expectation that a state will adopt a renewable portfolio standard in the year 2001
this model was estimated using a probit maximum likelihood regression, with a time counter in order to help control for time-related drift and robust standard errors to control for additional geographic or temporal heteroskedasticity.5two specifications are presented in table 4 in order to demonstrate the effects of creating a renewables index from the solar density and wind potential variables. discussion of event history analysis model the event history analysis model demonstrates strong support for the internal determinants model but no support for the regional diffusion model. both models provide similar results, with citizen liberalism, solar density, the criteria pollutant index, and the time counter control statistically significant and in the expected directions. in addition, model 2 demonstrates significance for the carbon dioxide intensity parameter in the expected directions. all other parameters are in the expected directions, with the exception of gas and coal production per capita. according to model 1, the expectation that a state will adopt a renewable portfolio standard in the year 2001 (the median year in the sample), with all factors held at
What does Investigating media representational represent ?
promote links between public understanding and social change on the issue of climate change
What does analyses of media representations of these news sources-- typically considered
working class' newspapers--can tap into associated issues of public engagement and behavioral change
analyses of UK tabloid news in other disciplines provide a foundation for ?
examinations of coverage of environmental issues such as climate change
investigating media representational practices more broadly has the potential to more effectively promote links between public understanding and social change on the issue of climate change (moser and dilling 2007 moser 2006 ). thus, analyses of media representations of these news sources-- typically considered 'working class' newspapers--can tap into associated issues of public engagement and behavioral change. this project is motivated by growing recognition of the need to engage wider constituencies in awareness and behavioral change. to do so, this letter explores daily print media coverage of anthropogenic climate change in four daily 'popular' and 'working class' newspapers in the uk-- the sun daily mail the mirror and express along with their respective sunday counterparts news of the world the mail on sunday the sunday mirror and sunday express such a focus is useful for four main reasons. first, uk readership is very distinctly differentiated across socio-economics. second, uk newspaper coverage of climate change is increasingly abundant, thereby enabling a more robust analysis of content in the tabloid press. third, past tabloid coverage of other science and environment issues such as mmr vaccines in the daily express and genetically modified food in the sun influenced public views on these politicized issues; thus it is useful to examine their possible influences in the issue of anthropogenic climate change. fourth, previous analyses of uk tabloid news in other disciplines provide a foundation for examinations of coverage of environmental issues such as climate change. through examinations of content in climate change articles over the last seven years (2000-2006), triangulated with twodozen semi-structured interviews of journalists and editors from these newspapers, this letter addresses questions of a socio-economically differentiated public.
Why are Convection and turbulence important for the distribution of chemical species?
convection and turbulence rapidly mix air and chemical species vertically, and thus they are important for the distribution of chemical species
Where does the deep cumulus uplift the chemical species to?
in particular, deep cumulus convection uplifts the chemical species in the boundary layer directly to the upper troposphere through detrainment, giving large effects on tropospheric ozone
What are the dominant areas of turbulent mixing and convective transfer?
turbulent mixing works predominantly within the planetary boundary layer (below ~2000m), and convective transport is the dominant process mixing air between the planetary boundary layer and the free troposphere, thereby playing a crucial role for long-range transport such as intercontinental and hemispheric transport
convection and turbulence rapidly mix air and chemical species vertically, and thus they are important for the distribution of chemical species. such processes are of interest not just in the troposphere, but also in the middle atmosphere e.g. associated with gravity wave breaking). turbulent mixing works predominantly within the planetary boundary layer (below ~2000m), and convective transport is the dominant process mixing air between the planetary boundary layer and the free troposphere, thereby playing a crucial role for long-range transport such as intercontinental and hemispheric transport. in particular, deep cumulus convection uplifts the chemical species in the boundary layer directly to the upper troposphere through detrainment, giving large effects on tropospheric ozone e.g., lawrence et al. 2003). entrainment of mid-level air and downdraft associated with detrained air in a convective cell also contribute to the vertical mixing of chemical species. however, since most ccmval-2 models do not include detailed tropospheric chemistry, sophisticated schemes are often not required for convective transport and turbulent mixing. (see online supplement for more details). also the ccmval-2 reference simulations (section 2.5.2) do not consider very short-lived halogen species (vsls) which would be sensitive to the details of convection.
What about indirect effects on vegetation cover that might result from global warming?
biophysical feedbacks can occur through the two-way interactions between climate and vegetation cover (figure 3). for example, global warming may affect the structure and distribution of terrestrial ecosystems around the world. these climate-induced changes may affect biophysical processes at the land-atmosphere boundary and, as a result, create a positive or negative feedback effect
Describe the relationship between plants and climate?
a new suite of computer models has recently been developed to consider the interactions between vegetation and climate. most of these models are based on existing gcms of the atmosphere, linked to representations of land surface processes and global vegetation dynamics (foley et al 1998, 2000
Describe Climate-Plant Samples?
these models build on a long tradition of global climate modeling and the more recent inclusions of detailed, mechanistic models of surface biophysical processes. coupled climate-vegetation models are still in the early development stages
what about indirect effects on vegetation cover that might result from global warming? could shifting plant patterns also affect the climate, and would these changes amplify or reduce the warming effects? biophysical feedbacks can occur through the two-way interactions between climate and vegetation cover (figure 3). for example, global warming may affect the structure and distribution of terrestrial ecosystems around the world. these climate-induced changes may affect biophysical processes at the land-atmosphere boundary and, as a result, create a positive or negative feedback effect. a new suite of computer models has recently been developed to consider the interactions between vegetation and climate. most of these models are based on existing gcms of the atmosphere, linked to representations of land surface processes and global vegetation dynamics (foley et al 1998, 2000). these models build on a long tradition of global climate modeling and the more recent inclusions of detailed, mechanistic models of surface biophysical processes. coupled climate-vegetation models are still in the early development stages, however, and
What are the main problems that could affect the Atlantic region in the near future?
in addition to sea level rise, changes in storm frequency and intensity, as well as changes in sea-ice cover due to climate change, could potentially affect the atlantic region
What are the potentially dangerous effects of more frequent storms?
more frequent storms would not only be a concern in themselves, but would also increase the probability of intense storms occurring in conjunction with a high tide, thus increasing the risk of extreme water levels and coastal flooding
Do we have practical examples of the impact of climat change at the local scale?
recent case studies allow a preliminary assessment of the potential impacts of climate change at the local and regional scale. for example, in charlottetown, where relative sea level has risen about 32 centimetres since 1911, accelerated sea level rise induced by climate change could create significant problems for urban infrastructure
in addition to sea level rise, changes in storm frequency and intensity, as well as changes in sea-ice cover due to climate change, could potentially affect the atlantic region.(12)more frequent storms would not only be a concern in themselves, but would also increase the probability of intense storms occurring in conjunction with a high tide, thus increasing the risk of extreme water levels and coastal flooding. a decrease in seasonal sea-ice extent would result in increased wave development and wave energy, and cause increased coastal erosion during winter. recent case studies allow a preliminary assessment of the potential impacts of climate change at the local and regional scale. for example, in charlottetown, where relative sea level has risen about 32 centimetres since 1911, accelerated sea level rise induced by climate change could create significant problems for urban infrastructure.(19)
Who created very helpful comments on earlier versions of the manuscript?
kirsten findell and mike winton
Who provided assistance with the implementation of their high-resolution atmosphere model within the framework of CM2.5?
bruce wyman, isaac held, sj lin, and ming zhao
What is Ferret?
ferret is a product of noaa's pacific marine environmental laboratory
acknowledgments. the authors thank bruce wyman, isaac held, sj lin, and ming zhao for assistance with the implementation of their high-resolution atmosphere model within the framework of cm2.5, and kirsten findell and mike winton for very helpful comments on an earlier version of the manuscript. the authors would also like to thank amy langenhorst for help with the fre software package, and frank indiviglio for assistance in facilitating the execution priority of cm2.6. we gratefully acknowledge the very helpful comments of the editor and two anonymous reviewers. the authors wish to acknowledge use of the ferret program for analysis and graphics in this paper. ferret is a product of noaa's pacific marine environmental laboratory (information available at http://ferret.pmel.noaa.gov/ferret/).
How does reindeer grazing make vegetation attractive to smaller herbivores?
reindeer grazing is believed to be a key process in making the vegetation attractive to the smaller herbivores, not only through selective removal of lichens, but by providing a nutrient pulse via the faeces for grass and sedge growth
What food source do ducks and swans depend on?
ducks and swans depend on algae and macrophytes
Why have reindeer numbers in the western sector of Pechora declined?
over the past decade reindeer numbers in the western sector of the pechora have declined by one-third as herding is currently not profitable and there is some concern regarding longterm impacts on the system
the pechora is the last remaining river system in europe that has maintained its natural heterogeneity and contrasts strongly with the highly modified landscape in the netherlands. however, the pechora is not devoid of impact by man, and the traditional forms of reindeer management, in particular, must have modified the tundra system on a large scale. reindeer grazing is believed to be a key process in making the vegetation attractive to the smaller herbivores, not only through selective removal of lichens, but by providing a nutrient pulse via the faeces for grass and sedge growth (van der wal et al ., 2004). avian herbivores rely on rhizomes (spring) or leaves (summer) of grasses and sedges, berries and seed heads in late summer. ducks and swans depend on algae and macrophytes (system analysis in van eerden, 2000). over the past decade reindeer numbers in the western sector of the pechora have declined by one-third as herding is currently not profitable and there is some concern regarding longterm impacts on the system (a. glotov, personal communication). the dutch landscape offers the other extreme with no large native herbivores of quantitative importance and maximum control by man. grazing effects on pasture swards by cattle, horses and sheep allow grazing by geese and swans along the entire flyway. hayfields and riverine grasslands grazed by livestock in summer are currently the preferred spring staging habitats for geese and swans. the decline in animal husbandry, particularly dairy farming, in the dvina delta on the southern margin of the white sea is already having a deleterious impact on the number of visits in spring in the past decade by barnacle and white-fronted geese (v. a. andreev, personal communication). the loss of human settlements along the north coast of russia has led to a decline in haymaking, grazing by livestock, and the hunting of arctic fox, alopex lagopus the effective removal of the principal predators (fox and man) may account for the range expansion of the barnacle goose in northern russia (k. litvin in madsen et al ., 1999). the only goose population relying mainly on natural foods during spring migration on this flyway is the
What is the effect of changes in tree growth?
implications of changes in tree growth our data from three different forested sites indicate that growth effects associated with high ambient o3 exposures of mature forest trees can be large (30-50%) on average across multiple species for individual sites
How patterns of growth rate reductions related with 03?
measurements with a network of manual bands revealed patterns of growth rate reductions that were closely associated with the timing of high o3 exposures within years
how daily stem increment patterns were highly influenced by ?
as expected, the daily stem increment patterns were highly influenced by diurnal patterns of radiation, vpd and
implications of changes in tree growth our data from three different forested sites indicate that growth effects associated with high ambient o3 exposures of mature forest trees can be large (30-50%) on average across multiple species for individual sites. they can also be expected to vary significantly among species and between years. growth reductions were also found to be accompanied by changes in patterns of water use that would likely amplify the growth effects in drier years. measurements with a network of manual bands revealed patterns of growth rate reductions that were closely associated with the timing of high o3 exposures within years. these patterns also related well to the differences in seasonal exposure among years. time series analyses for intensively monitored trees at one of the three sites identified o3 exposure (aot60) both alone and in combination with vpd as a significant contributor to the loss in stem increment. as expected, the daily stem increment patterns were highly influenced by diurnal patterns of radiation, vpd and
We constructed alternative Mahalanobis what is that?
niche models for each species under current climate conditions using different combinations of climatic, topographic, and biotic variables
How do We calculated median HSI values for calibration and validation datasets?
we calculated median hsi values for calibration and validation datasets to evaluate model performance for each species
we constructed alternative mahalanobis d2niche models for each species under current climate conditions using different combinations of climatic, topographic, and biotic variables (table 1). we constructed a climateonly model with four climate variables, and several abiotic-biotic models that included different combinations of climatic, topographic, vegetation and plant species variables hypothesized to be associated with each species' occurrence. the climate-only model is analogous to a bioclimate envelope (e.g. pearson dawson, 2003). to evaluate niche models, we first had to identify candidate models and their associated partitions (model-partitions) with the greatest potential to parsimoniously delineate suitable habitat for each species under current climate conditions. we calculated median hsi values for calibration and validation datasets to evaluate model performance for each species (rotenberry et al ., 2006). for the quino checkerspot, we selected as candidate model-partitions those with highest median calibration and validation hsi values. for the california gnatcatcher, we also used the independent presence-absence dataset to evaluate
What did the paradigm of climate research evolve from?
the paradigm of climate research evolved from the purely descriptive approach towards an understanding of the dynamics of climate with the advent of computers and the ability to simulate the climatic state and its variability
What is the climate controlled by?
the climate is controlled by innumerable factors
What plays an important role in this new paradigm?
statistics plays an important role in this new paradigm
climatology was originally a sub-discipline of geography, and was therefore mainly descriptive (see, e.g., br"uckner hann [155], or hann and knoch [156]). description of the climate consisted primarily of estimates of its mean state and estimates of its variability about that state, such as its standard deviations and other simple measures of variability. much of climatology is still focused on these concerns today. the main purpose of this description is to define 'normals' and 'normal deviations,' which are eventually displayed as maps. these maps are then used for regionalization (in the sense of identifying homogeneous geographical units) and planning. the paradigm of climate research evolved from the purely descriptive approach towards an understanding of the dynamics of climate with the advent of computers and the ability to simulate the climatic state and its variability. statistics plays an important role in this new paradigm. the climate is a dynamical system influenced not only by immense external factors, such as solar radiation or the topography of the surface of the solid earth, but also by seemingly insignificant phenomena, such as butterflies flapping their wings. its evolution is controlled by more or less well-known physical principles, such as the conservation of angular momentum. if we knew all these factors, and the state of the full climate system (including the atmosphere, the ocean, the land surface, etc.), at a given time in full detail, then there would not be room for statistical uncertainty, nor a need for this book. indeed, if we repeat a run of a general circulation model, which is supposedly a model of the real climate system, on the same computer with exactly the same code, operating system, and initial conditions, we obtain a second realization of the simulated climate that is identical to the first simulation. of course, there is a 'but.' we do not know all factors that control the trajectory of climate in its enormously large phase space.1thus it is not possible to map the state of the atmosphere, the ocean, and the other components of the climate system in full detail. also, the models are not deterministic in a practical sense: an insignificant change in a single digit in the model's initial conditions causes the model's trajectory through phase space to diverge quickly from the original trajectory (this is lorenz's [260] famous discovery, which leads to the concept of chaotic systems). therefore, in a strict sense, we have a 'deterministic' system, but we do not have the ability to analyse and describe it with 'deterministic' tools, as in thermodynamics. instead, we use probabilistic ideas and statistics to describe the 'climate' system. four factors ensure that the climate system is amenable to statistical thinking. * the climate is controlled by innumerable factors. only a small proportion of these factors can be considered, while the rest are necessarily interpreted as background noise. the details of the generation of this 'noise' are not important, but it is important to understand that this noise is an internal source of variation in the climate system (see also the discussion of 'stochastic climate models' in section 10.4). * the dynamics of climate are nonlinear. nonlinear components of the hydrodynamic part include important advective terms, such as u[?] u [?] x. the thermodynamic part contains various other nonlinear processes, including many that can be represented by step functions (such as condensation).
What does the preliminary comparative analysis provide?
this preliminary comparative analysis provided the basis for in-depth investigation of the sources of methodological diversity in these studies
What level were the studies generally taken at?
vulnerability studies generally undertaken at the sub-national level
How many studies were looked at?
five studies
this preliminary comparative analysis provided the basis for in-depth investigation of the sources of methodological diversity in these studies. in the following sections, we present the results of this analysis drawing, where relevant, on a range of other vulnerability studies generally undertaken at the sub-national level. through meta-methodological analysis, that is analysis of over-arching methodological frameworks rather than technical details, we glean what the tables do not show, that is, the striking differences between the approaches taken in the five studies, differences that cannot be attributed to varying goals but to differences in theoretical understanding, assumptions and scientific method underlying the selection of indicators. 504 s.h. eriksen and p.m. kelly
What can data archives from MMEs be used to link?
data archives from mmes can also be used to link errors in simulating future and past change, in a similar spirit to the ask technique
What does the arctic sea ice study provide?
this arctic-sea-ice study provides an example of what we might call an emergent constraint, that is, a relationship between past trends and future trends, developed empirically from climate model output used to make projections of the future
What can be used to empirically determine future trends?
it is possible to empirically determine future trends using a simple scaling of the past trends, with some spread due to model errors and natural variability
data archives from mmes can also be used to link errors in simulating future and past change, in a similar spirit to the ask technique. these data archives can be considered as representing our physical understanding of the climate system, as derived from climate models themselves. for some variables, simple relationships have been uncovered between future projection variables and past observed trends or variability. future changes in september seaice extent in the arctic have an approximately linear relationship with the past trends in the cmip3 models28 (fig. 4). it is possible to empirically determine future trends using a simple scaling of the past trends, with some spread due to model errors and natural variability. the situation is similar to that seen in fig. 3 except that the relationship is derived from complex climate model simulations rather than a simple ebm. by constraining the parameters of the linear relationship using the observations, it is possible to produce a calibrated projection of future september sea-ice trends. note that a different ensemble may produce a different relationship or a wider spread, but at least the sensitivity of the projections can be tested by varying such assumptions. this arctic-sea-ice study provides an example of what we might call an emergent constraint, that is, a relationship between past trends and future trends, developed empirically from climate model output used to make projections of the future. if the empirical relationship can be understood on simple physical grounds, belief in it is strengthened. it provides justification for attaching more credibility to models that match the observed trend well over the recent period, and hence for treating the difference between modelled and observed trends as a metric for the purposes of weighting or correcting models. such a metric might be considered to be an example of a process-based metric, that is, a metric that is used to evaluate a process (the sensitivity of sea-ice change) rather than simply a metric of how the model compares with reality in terms of the spatial distribution of sea ice in the time average. however, a precise definition of what is process-based and
When the effects of warm temperatures goes up, what happens to leaf senescence?
leaf senescence will be delayed
When the effects of drought dominate, what happens to leaf senescence?
advanced leaf senescence and lower proficiency will occur
climatic warming will most likely delay leaf senescence and fall in the many species sensitive to temperature but will have a weak, if any, effect in non-sensitive species or in populations adapted to high latitudes. the importance of drought on the control of the phenology of leaf senescence will be intensified whenever droughts become more intense and frequent either due to lower precipitation or to increasing water demands caused by warmer temperatures. the effects of advances of leaf senescence will depend on the intensity of the drought. advances or delays in leaf senescence and decreases or increases in the proficiency of nutrient resorption will depend on the species and on the site-specific counteracting effects of warmer temperatures and drought. whenever the effects of warming dominate, leaf senescence will be delayed, and proficiency could slightly increase because of a slower speed of leaf senescence, but only if the potential resorption is not reached and in the absence of frosts that could disrupt leaf senescence. whenever the effects of drought dominate, advanced leaf senescence and lower proficiency will occur in drought-senescent species as a function of the intensity of the drought. under intense droughts, species not adapted to drought and unable to senesce in response to water stress will lose all the nutrients in desiccated leaves, whereas drought-adapted species will resorb nutrients from droughtsenesced leaves, although in lower amounts than in ontogenically senesced leaves. the contrast between the effects of warming and those of drought and the interspecific variability of the controls exerted by photoperiod hinder the projection of the effects of climate change on the timing and chemistry of leaf fall.
What plays a significant role in emission pollution in urban areas?
the transport sector is responsible
What happens to the chemically active pollutants during transport?
might react with other substances and form reaction products
What is meant by VOCs ?
volatile organic compounds
air pollution in the urban atmosphere can have an adverse impact on the climate dentener et al., 2005 ), on the environment (a.o. acid rain, crop and forest damage, ozone depletion) and on human health brunekreef and holgate, 2002 ). the transport sector is responsible for a significant share of these emissions in the urban environment o'mahony et al., 2000 ). other sources of emissions are industrial applications, domestic heating and cooling systems in residential buildings and the accidental and/or deliberate release of toxic agents into the atmosphere. after being emitted, the pollutants are dispersed (i.e. advected and diffused) over a wide range of horizontal length scales. the dispersion process is to a large extent affected by the characteristics of the flow field, which in turn is dominated by the complex interplay between meteorological conditions and urban morphology. during transport, chemically active pollutants might react with other substances and form reaction products. trafficinduced emissions such as nox and vocs (volatile organic compounds) are for instance the main precursors of tropospheric ozone. furthermore, the concentration of airborne compounds is also affected by deposition processes. distinction is made between so-called wet and dry deposition processes, depending on whether or not coagulation of pollutants with water droplets takes place. from the preceding, it is clear that accurately predicting outdoor air quality is extremely complicated. in view of its importance, numerous studies have been performed in the past decades to arrive at a better understanding of pollutant emission, dispersion and deposition processes. insight herein can help to develop measures to improve air quality, to reduce climate change, and to minimise the negative impact on the environment and human health.
What is needed to measure the barriers?
measuring the barriers requires an ex ante simulation of a structural model or perhaps some experimentation framework in which behavioral responses can be elicited
What does the results on barriers indicate?
the results indicate that lack of credit and information concerning climate change forecasting (both short term variations (stv) and long-term climate change (ltcc) and information concerning adaptation options and other agricultural production activities; rationing of inputs, and lack of seed inputs are important constraints for most farmers
Which consequences are caused from operating with a  limitations of resource?
since most smallholder farmers are operating under resource limitations, lack of credit facilities and other inputs compound the limitations of resource availability and the implications are that farmers fail to meet transaction costs necessary to acquire the adaptation measures they might want to and at times farmers cannot make beneficial use of the available information they might have
barriers to adaptation in southern africa the study also assessed farmer perceived barriers to using various adaptation measures. the results presented in this section only provide a conjecture of barriers and do not go on to really measure such barriers. measuring the barriers requires an ex ante simulation of a structural model or perhaps some experimentation framework in which behavioral responses can be elicited. this is however, beyond the focus of this paper and is thus given as an area that can be explored further. results on barriers to taking up adaptation options in southern africa are presented in figure 5 below. the results indicate that lack of credit and information concerning climate change forecasting (both short term variations (stv) and long-term climate change (ltcc) and information concerning adaptation options and other agricultural production activities; rationing of inputs, and lack of seed inputs are important constraints for most farmers. lack of credit, rationing of inputs, and lack of seed limit the ability of farmers to get the necessary resources and technologies they might want in order to adapt their activities to changing climatic conditions. since most smallholder farmers are operating under resource limitations, lack of credit facilities and other inputs compound the limitations of resource availability and the implications are that farmers fail to meet transaction costs necessary to acquire the adaptation measures they might want to and at times farmers cannot make beneficial use of the available information they might have (kandlinkar and risbey 2000).
What is the contrast between maximum and minimum?
this contrasts with the greater increase in minima than maxima observed over australia in the 20th century, as described in the previous section. along with changes in average temperatures, changes in extreme temperatures are also predicted
by 2030, annual average temperatures are projected to be 0.4-2.0  c higher over most of australia (relative to 1990), with slightly less warming in some coastal areas and the potential for greater warming in the north-west. by 2070, annual average temperatures may increase by 1.0-6.0  c. the range of warming is projected to be greatest in spring and least in winter. the models suggest that increases in daily maximum and minimum temperature will be similar to the changes in average temperature. this contrasts with the greater increase in minima than maxima observed over australia in the 20th century, as described in the previous section. along with changes in average temperatures, changes in extreme temperatures are also predicted.
What plays an important roll for the transport sector?
there is strong evidence that the other emissions and mechanisms play an important role for the transport sector (e.g. eyring et al., 2005; lauer et al., 2007; fuglestvedt et al., 2008
What is the adjustment time for O3, sulphate, BC, OC and contrails?
the adjustment times are short for many of the emissions associated with modes of transport: months for o3, days for sulphate, bc and oc and hours or less for contrails
What does an evaluation on the climate impact of transport depend on?
an evaluation of the climate impact of transport depends on how future effects in a long-term perspective are evaluated
f however, there is strong evidence that the other emissions and mechanisms play an important role for the transport sector (e.g. eyring et al., 2005; lauer et al., 2007; fuglestvedt et al., 2008 ). quantifying these effects is a complex scientific task due to the broad mix of substances and physical/chemical processes involved. the adjustment times are short for many of the emissions associated with modes of transport: months for o3, days for sulphate, bc and oc and hours or less for contrails. by contrast, the llghgs have adjustment times of decades (ch4) and centuries (n2o and co2). thus, an evaluation of the climate impact of transport depends on how future effects in a long-term perspective are evaluated (see section 5.1 ). such an evaluation involves value judgements since very different effects occurring at different times, and affecting different generations, have to be compared and weighted. furthermore, transport emissions cause both negative and positive forcing and this raises a fundamental question for policymaking: how should negative forcings (cooling) be treated? one option is simply to ignore them. it may also be argued that cooling effects can be seen as a climate disturbance e.g. through effects of circulation patterns and the hydrological cycle; thus the absolute value of the
What are some concerns many insurers have?
the concerns of many insurers are not just about the uncertainties around the increase in the frequency and severity of storms and floods which could cause problems, but also about the implications of changing responses and attitudes of governments and corporate clients. the activities of pressure groups and concerns of individual consumers are also very important and will increasingly affect insurers ' strategies
What is resulting from the increases in the frequency and severity of natural disasters and concerns about the effects of climate change?
increases in the frequency and severity of natural disasters and concerns about the effects of climate change are resulting in a new and healthy dialogue developing between the research community and the insurance industry
the concerns of many insurers are not just about the uncertainties around the increase in the frequency and severity of storms and floods which could cause problems, but also about the implications of changing responses and attitudes of governments and corporate clients. the activities of pressure groups and concerns of individual consumers are also very important and will increasingly affect insurers ' strategies. for many years insurers have accepted risks with surprisingly limited information about the natural hazards that impact so much on their claims costs. increases in the frequency and severity of natural disasters and concerns about the effects of climate change are resulting in a new and healthy dialogue developing between the research community and the insurance industry. in 1994, a study group set up by the society of fellows of the chartered insurance institute published a very significant report entitled ' the impact of changing weather patterns on property insurance ' for the first time, there was a comprehensive analysis of the potential effects of climate change on the uk insurance industry. this study was followed by further, more detailed
What made some organizations to begin the process of moving safety improvement efforts forward?
the release of to err is human ,1many healthcare institutions and organizations began the process of moving safety improvement efforts forward
What is critical in high-risk settings?
effective teamwork is critical in high-risk settings
Which are factors that are identified and being investigated by researchers to effective team work?
in healthcare, researchers have identified and are investigating group hierarchy, stressful work environments, poor communication and varying perceptions of what comprises a team as some barriers to effective teamwork
after the release of to err is human ,1many healthcare institutions and organizations began the process of moving safety improvement efforts forward. one principle in this report was the 'promotion of effective team functioning.' the american college of obstetricians and gynecologists (acog) responded with a set of safety-related objectives for clinical providers to follow in daily practice.2one objective stressed commitment to a patient safety culture through the daily practice of teamwork, communication, collaboration and strong leadership for providers. effective teamwork is critical in high-risk settings where individuals interact with other persons to perform their job. in aviation, plane crashes resulting from flight crew discord prompted development of crew resource management (crm) training to address team climate and improve performance.3,4in healthcare, researchers have identified and are investigating group hierarchy, stressful work environments, poor communication and varying perceptions of what comprises a team as some barriers to effective teamwork.5,6
Is there any considerable seen in west antarctica?
west antarctica, no considerable changes are seen
what is the figure7 shows?
figure 7 shows the bias and relative bias (error bars denote bias standard deviation) of the balance velocity with respect to the insar velocity, binned in eight surfaceelevation intervals
which improved in all bins?
the balance velocity has improved in all bins
antarctica, especially in dml, the fris and the lambert glacier basin. in the byrd glacier basin, differences have become smaller but are still substantial  40%). in west antarctica, no considerable changes are seen, in agreement with the previous subsection. figure 7 shows the bias and relative bias (error bars denote bias standard deviation) of the balance velocity with respect to the insar velocity, binned in eight surfaceelevation intervals, and filtered as in figure 6. when compared with insar, both model smb fields have lower balance velocities in all bins, indicative of underestimated smb, in line with figure 5. part of this underestimation (5-10%) is because the balance velocities are depthaveraged, and insar velocities are surface velocities. for racmo2.3, the balance velocity has improved in all bins. in agreement with figure 5, this implies an improvement in the racmo2.3 smb field relative to racmo2.1, especially in interior east antarctica.
In the case of NAPAs, improvements include what?
improvements include newly devoted resources for implementation
Notable among these are the independent efforts of governments and research partners in where?
bangladesh, bolivia, ghana, guatemala, india, and uganda
more recent napas, however, as well as national adaptation policies and programs developed independently from the unfccc system, are learning how to better address vulnerability and adaptive capacity. in the case of napas, improvements include newly devoted resources for implementation; a new framework for tracking ldcf results; and improved means for comparability, learning, and reflection. taken together, these reforms are expected to move efforts beyond the early "projectisized" approach towards cross-cutting issues and country-driven priorities.20 a few developing countries have also formed national climate change policies and coinciding results frameworks that provide a platform for economic growth, environmental management, and poverty reduction in the context of a changing climate. notable among these are the independent efforts of governments and research partners in bangladesh, bolivia, ghana, guatemala, india, and uganda.21
How has human activities changed greenhouse gases?
human activities contribute to an increase of concentrations of greenhouse gases (ghgs)6 in the atmosphere from their natural background level. figure 1 shows how greenhouse gases trap heat near the earth's surface
What is the consensus about the earths climate?
while the earth's climate has always varied naturally over millennia there is a scientific consensus that human activities are now changing global climate
What is human induced and represents one of the most serious global environmental problems?
human-induced climate change represents one of the most serious global environmental problems
human-induced climate change represents one of the most serious global environmental problems. while the earth's climate has always varied naturally over millennia there is a scientific consensus that human activities are now changing global climate. the third assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change states that "there is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities"5. global average temperature increased about 0.6degc over the 20th century. precipitation patterns characterizing land areas of the northern hemisphere have progressively changed. these changes include more rainfall in the mid to high latitudes and, on the contrary, less rainfall in the sub-tropics. average sea levels have risen by 10-20 cm while snow and ice covers have fallen almost world-wide. however, no statistically significant trends have been noticed in relation to extreme events (i.e. tropical storms, tornadoes or hail storms). human activities contribute to an increase of concentrations of greenhouse gases (ghgs)6 in the atmosphere from their natural background level. figure 1 shows how greenhouse gases trap heat near the earth's surface. since the industrial revolution, human-induced activities including industrial processes, energy generation from fossil fuels, deforestation and intensive land use practices have
What combustible material did the industrial revolution begin with?
the industrial revolution began with wood being replaced by coal as the primary energy source
What attributes of coal made it an incredible source of energy?
coal provided more concentrated energy, and thus was more mobile and effective
What material spurred even greater wealth generation in the twentieth century?
economic progress and wealth generation were further spurred in the twentieth century by expansion into liquid and gaseous fossil fuels, oil and gas being transported and burned more readily than coal
the industrial revolution began with wood being replaced by coal as the primary energy source. coal provided more concentrated energy, and thus was more mobile and effective. we show data for the united states (fig. 13) because of the availability of a long data record that includes wood [229]. more limited global records yield a similar picture [fig. 14], the largest difference being global coal now at 30% compared with 20% in the united states. economic progress and wealth generation were further spurred in the twentieth century by expansion into liquid and gaseous fossil fuels, oil and gas being transported and burned more readily than coal. only in the latter part of the twentieth century did it become clear that long-lived combustion products from fossil fuels posed a global climate threat, as formally acknowledged in the 1992 framework convention on climate change however, efforts to slow emissions of the principal atmospheric gas driving climate change, co2, have been ineffectual so far (fig. 1). consequently, at present, as the most easily extracted oil and gas reserves are being depleted, we stand at a fork in the road to our energy and carbon future. will we now feed our energy needs by pursuing difficult to extract fossil fuels, or will we pursue energy policies that phase out carbon emissions, moving on to the post fossil fuel era as rapidly as practical? this is not the first fork encountered. most nations agreed to the framework convention on climate change in 1992 imagine if a bloc of countries favoring action had agreed on a common gradually rising carbon fee collected within each of country at domestic mines and ports of entry. such nations might place equivalent border duties on products from nations not having a carbon fee and they could rebate fees to their domestic industry for export products to nations without an equivalent carbon fee. the legality of such a border tax adjustment under international trade law is untested, but is considered to be plausibly consistent with trade principles [230]. as the carbon fee gradually rose and as additional nations, for their own benefit, joined this bloc of nations, development of carbon-free energies and energy efficiency would have been spurred. if the carbon fee had begun in 1995, we
What have we been seeing since 1995?
heavy mortality among apis mellifera worldwide
What is the consensus among researchers about honey bee mortality?
that a combination of factors is responsible for this honey bee mortality
What is the relationship between pesticides and colonies?
pesticides kill many colonies every year
since 1995, we have been seeing heavy mortality among apis mellifera worldwide. the consensus among researchers is that a combination of factors is responsible for this honey bee mortality. pesticides kill many colonies every year. new pathogens have been added to the already long list of honey bee diseases. however, researchers agree that the bees' environment and stress, both of which are influenced by climate change, have been decisive factors in this heavy mortality (29, 31). there appear to be strong interactions between diseases, pesticides, environment and climate. climate change has an action on each of these factors. to understand the effect of climate change on the evolution of honey bee populations, each of these factors will need to be taken into account.
Matching observed profiles of water vapor is an important requirement for simulating what?
matching observed profiles of water vapor is an important requirement for simulating the climate system
What was compared to the  satellite data for the year 2003?
we use daily averaged output for comparison to the satellite data for the year 2003
What 3 things is the work focused on understanding?
our focus is on understanding 1) simulations of mean relative humidity, 2) the variability in those simulations, and 3) the implications for climate of differences between observations and the model
matching observed profiles of water vapor is an important requirement for simulating the climate system. airs provides data at a resolution similar to gcms used to simulate the climate system. here we provide comparisons of a climatology of the ncar cam3, described by collins et al. (2006). for comparison we use a simulation at 1deg  1.25deg horizontal resolution and 26 levels in the vertical with surface temperatures taken from observations during 2000-2004. we use daily averaged output for comparison to the satellite data for the year 2003. our focus is on understanding 1) simulations of mean relative humidity, 2) the variability in those simulations, and 3) the implications for climate of differences between observations and the model. to facilitate comparisons with airs ir observations, which are biased toward clear sky scenes, we average only those simulated points with cloud fraction less than 70% in all of these analyses.
Which factors show a significant correlation with nasal cavity shape?
all climate factors, except vpmax, show a significant p 0.05) correlation with nasal cavity shape
How is Tmean related with nasal cavity shape coordinates?
tmean has the highest correlation with nasal cavity shape coordinates
What is the relationship between nasal cavity shape and CScran?
there is no significant correlation between nasal cavity shape and cscran
the results of the mantel tests for correlation between morphological shape distances and climate distances corrected for geographic distance are shown in table 4. all climate factors, except vpmax, show a significant p 0.05) correlation with nasal cavity shape. of the three temperature factors, tmean has the highest correlation with nasal cavity shape coordinates. of the three vapor pressure factors, vpmean has the highest correlation with nasal cavity shape. nasal cavity shape is significantly correlated with nose centroid size. although there is a significant correlation between nose centroid size (csnose) and cranial centroid size (cscran), there is no significant correlation between nasal cavity shape and cscran. centroid size of the nose does not show correlation with either temperature or vapor pressure. cranial centroid size only shows a highly significant correlation with tmean.
Why the public's has a lack of responsiveness to climate change messages?
low comprehension of or interest in communications laden with scientific language
When talking to the general public what communicators should do?
avoid using jargon, complicated scientific terms, and acronyms. instead, use words that will make sense to the audience
What Communicators should remember?
that stringing together too many scientific terms and acronyms may cause the audience to spend their time and mental energy deciphering vocabulary instead of absorbing the overall point
another possible reason for the public's lack of responsiveness to climate change messages may be caused by low comprehension of or interest in communications laden with scientific language. when talking to the general public, research shows that communicators should, whenever possible, avoid using jargon, complicated scientific terms, and acronyms. instead, use words that will make sense to the audience. table 3 below contains words or phrases that are commonly used when discussing climate change and alternative words that get the same idea across more simply. sometimes only a scientific term is sufficient for getting a point across. in that case, it is important to thoroughly define the term for the audience. communicators should remember, however, that stringing together too many scientific terms and acronyms may cause the audience to spend their time and mental energy deciphering vocabulary instead of absorbing the overall point.
What is the second goal of the document?
build on existing partnerships to engage the city urban area, including businesses, residents and other stakeholders, in actions aimed at adaptation to climate change
What is the third goal of the document?
describe programs and actions already underway in the city that provide protection from climate change
(figure 3) (4). the goals of the document are to: * provide a rationale for incorporating adaptation to climate change into city of toronto policies, programs and activities, by presenting the current climate, recent changes and future projections; * build on existing partnerships to engage the city urban area, including businesses, residents and other stakeholders, in actions aimed at adaptation to climate change; * describe programs and actions already underway in the city that provide protection from climate change; * suggest short-term actions to increase protection from climate change and provide other benefits to toronto; and * recommend a process to systematically figure 3. title cover of "ahead of the storm" (4)
What will temperate regions experience as the norm by 2100?
temperate regions, such as europe, will see previous record temperatures become the norm by 2100
What percentage would food crops such as rice and maize fall by?
harvests of staple food crops, such as rice and maize, could fall between 20% and 40% as a result of increased temperatures during the growing season in tropical and subtropical regions
What will sea level rise and flooding of coastal lands lead to?
sea level rise and fl ooding of coastal lands will lead to salination or contamination of fresh water and agricultural lands, and the loss of nursery areas for fi shing
lobell and colleagues63 used statistical crop models and climate projections for 2030 from 20 general circulation models and showed that south asia and southern africa, without suffi cient adaptation measures, are likely to suff er negative outcomes on crops that are important to large food-insecure human populations, such as maize, wheat, and rice. another study64 suggests that half of the world's population could face severe food shortages by the end of the century because rising temperatures take their toll on farmers' crops. harvests of staple food crops, such as rice and maize, could fall between 20% and 40% as a result of increased temperatures during the growing season in tropical and subtropical regions. battisti and naylor64 combined ipcc climate models with historical examples of the eff ects of heatwaves on agriculture, and found a 90% chance that, by the end of the century, the coolest temperatures in tropical regions during the crop-growing season would exceed the hottest temperatures recorded between 1900 and 2006. temperate regions, such as europe, will see previous record temperatures become the norm by 2100. although agricultural productivity might increase in some regions as a result of global warming (almost entirely in the rich high-latitude countries, although sahara greening might benefi t west africa), hunger, illness, and death due to undernutrition are set to worsen as climate change aff ects crops, forestry, livestock, fi sheries, aquaculture, and water systems. increases in extreme weather events will damage crops and disrupt farming.65 sea level rise and fl ooding of coastal lands will lead to salination or contamination of fresh water and agricultural lands, and the loss of nursery areas for fi shing. drought, and changing patterns of plant and livestock diseases and pest infestations, reduction of income from animal production, decreased crop yields, lessened forest productivity, and changes in aquatic populations will all aff ect food production and security. the regions most likely to be adversely aff ected are those already most vulnerable to food insecurity and malnutrition, where production is undertaken by
Emission factors (EFs) are usually defined as grams of trace gas emitted per kilogram of what?
emission factors (efs) are usually defined as grams of trace gas emitted per kilogram of dry matter consumed during a fire
Variation in timing of fires (or seasonality) is responsible for variation of what within a biome?
in addition, variation in timing of fires (or seasonality) is responsible for variation of ef within a biome
It is likely that interaction between the mix of grass, forest litter, coarse and heavy fuels, and fuel moisture on combustion efficiency will result in EF seasonality that is what?
however, it is likely that interaction between the mix of grass, forest litter, coarse and heavy fuels, and fuel moisture on combustion efficiency will result in ef seasonality that is regionally specific
emission factors (efs) are usually defined as grams of trace gas emitted per kilogram of dry matter consumed during a fire. emission factors for over 100 chemical components have been experimentally determined, compiled, and critically reviewed for a range of biomes.however, several important features of fires that influence the amount of material emitted by the fire may not be captured in many efs used in these estimates, including the fire phase, the flaming (f) and the smoldering (s) phases. the ratio of f/s occurrence depends on fuel conditions, fire weather, and terrain slope. in addition, variation in timing of fires (or seasonality) is responsible for variation of ef within a biome. in general, drier fuels in late season fires result in more complete combustionand in some biomes this may manifest as changing ef as the season develops and fuels become drier (e.g., savannas) or the commencement of burning not occurring until late in the season when fuels are dry enough (e.g., tropical and subtropical forests). emissions of ch4 from fires in southern africa were found to be disproportionately higher in the early fire season suggesting the bulk of ch4 emissions result from early season fires.[100,101]however, the actual magnitude of this effect is presently unclear and requires field measurement in a wider range of savanna plant communities around the world. to date, all analyses of seasonality rely on derived relationships between moisture content of fuel (denoted by a greenness index) and combustion efficiency (i.e., there are presently no comprehensive measurements of the seasonality of emissions composition). however, it is likely that interaction between the mix of grass, forest litter, coarse and heavy fuels, and fuel moisture on combustion efficiency will result in ef seasonality that is regionally specific. for example, in the australian
What is this paper based off of?
ipsos mori and chatham house
Chatha house thanks who?
tara garnett (oxford university centre for the environment), tim benton (university of leeds), shane tomlinson (chatham house), christiana wyly (avatar alliance foundation), samuel lee-gammage (avatar alliance foundation), ruth townend (ipsos mori) and edward langley (ipsos mori
Research and writing of this paper were undertaken with funding received from whom?
avatar alliance foundation, the craig and susan mccaw foundation, and heidi bassett and chris blair
this paper is based on research undertaken by ipsos mori and chatham house. chatham house would like to thank tara garnett (oxford university centre for the environment), tim benton (university of leeds), shane tomlinson (chatham house), christiana wyly (avatar alliance foundation), samuel lee-gammage (avatar alliance foundation), ruth townend (ipsos mori) and edward langley (ipsos mori) for reviewing an earlier draft of this paper. thanks also go to rachel shairp, marta talevi and liam o'flaherty for editorial assistance. the research for and writing of this paper were undertaken with funding gratefully received from the avatar alliance foundation, the craig and susan mccaw foundation, and heidi bassett and chris blair. the conclusions and recommendations contained in this paper represent the views of the authors, not those of ipsos mori, the reviewers or the funders.
According to the South Centre, where an assessment should be made?
the growing use of intellectual property rights in the agri-food sector and its eff ect on local markets and farmers in developing countries; the displacement of the public sector by the private sector as the lead investor in agricultural research; and the way in which profi ts are disproportionately allocated to the private sector while negative externalities and risks are mainly borne by governments and communities
How developig can use it's comparative advantage on American and European markets?
developing countries can use their comparative advantage in low-labour costs to capitalise on lucrative american and european markets, while benefi ting from the import of cheap, subsidised grains produced by agri-business
according to the south centre, an assessment should be done on: the growing use of intellectual property rights in the agri-food sector and its eff ect on local markets and farmers in developing countries; the displacement of the public sector by the private sector as the lead investor in agricultural research; and the way in which profi ts are disproportionately allocated to the private sector while negative externalities and risks are mainly borne by governments and communities.156 many similarities exist between agricultural research and development and the challenges experienced by the health community within the pharmaceutical research and development sector. at the same time, the agri-food sector has an important role in ensuring high crop yields and increased food production to meet the needs of a global population of more than 9 billion people. also, a shift in the way in which humanitarian emergencies are dealt with needs to be accelerated. the response still often comes in the form of food aid, which undermines long-term food security in famine-prone regions. instead, in-kind food aid should be replaced, where possible, with cash donations to agencies that can purchase food from regional or local markets, making more effi cient use of scarce resources while supporting local and regional food producers. the preferences of affl uent consumers are shaping global food and agricultural systems in many developing countries towards producing export commodities. developing countries can use their comparative advantage in low-labour costs to capitalise on lucrative american and european markets, while benefi ting from the import of cheap, subsidised grains produced by agri-business. however, although some countries have been able to do this (with some even meeting domestic demand for food despite import surges and growing participation of transnational companies in the local market), many countries formerly self-suffi cient for food have become net food importers and susceptible to the volatility of unregulated and speculative commodity markets. a new commitment to rural development is required to reduce urban drift and rural degradation by both subsistence communities and industrialisation. investments need to be made in rural roads, telephones, and electricity connections; access to education and health services is important to allow farmers to produce food effi ciently and eff ectively; forms of organisation such as associations, cooperatives, and microcredit groups can help to reduce costs for agricultural inputs and create useful economies of scale; and microfi nance services targeted at low-income and poor households need to be expanded. promotion of biodiversity within the agro-ecosystem is also an important strategy for enabling agriculture to adapt to the anticipated changing weather patterns and maximise yield over the medium to long term.157-160 the 2008 world agriculture report highlights a major role for purposeful biodiversity management in responding to climate change. a mix of crops and varieties in one fi eld increases resilience to erratic weather changes, drought, and fl ood; reduces the vulnerability to pests and diseases; and can help to prevent soil erosion and desertifi cation.
Does a vaccine for dengue fever exist?
since no vaccine exists, understanding and predicting outbreaks remain of crucial interest
What kind of original approach has been used in Noumea?
we analyzed the epidemiology of dengue in noumea (new caledonia) from 1971 to 2010 and its relationships with local and remote climate conditions using an original approach combining a comparison of epidemic and non epidemic years, bivariate and multivariate analyses
What is a major problem in the tropics and subtropics?
dengue fever is a major public health problem in the tropics and subtropics
dengue fever is a major public health problem in the tropics and subtropics. since no vaccine exists, understanding and predicting outbreaks remain of crucial interest. climate influences the mosquito-vector biology and the viral transmission cycle. its impact on dengue dynamics is of growing interest. we analyzed the epidemiology of dengue in noumea (new caledonia) from 1971 to 2010 and its relationships with local and remote climate conditions using an original approach combining a comparison of epidemic and non epidemic years, bivariate and multivariate analyses. we found that the occurrence of outbreaks in noumea was strongly influenced by climate during the last forty years. efficient models were developed to estimate the yearly risk of outbreak as a function of two meteorological variables that were contemporaneous (explicative model) or prior (predictive model) to the outbreak onset. local threshold values of maximal temperature and relative humidity were identified. our results provide new insights to understand the link between climate and dengue outbreaks, and have a substantial impact on dengue management in new caledonia since the health authorities have integrated these models into their decision making process and vector control policies. this raises the possibility to provide similar early warning systems in other countries.
Basic sample results were held in any given year?
in this section, baseline model results for february and august 1999 are compared with data to evaluate model performance
Statistics published in any year?
previous high-resolution quantitative evaluations of the model without detailed cloud treatment were done by jacobson [1997b; 2001b]. in the latter study, comparisons of numerous parameters were compared with data at each of two stations and other parameters were compared at multiple stations
How air pressure is calculated?
air pressure was predicted accurately for a month (normalized gross error of 0.1%, or 1 hpa, over all hours of august) under high-pressure conditions. because the model was not spun up, restarted, or assimilated with data, it effectively
in this section, baseline model results for february and august 1999 are compared with data to evaluate model performance. previous high-resolution quantitative evaluations of the model without detailed cloud treatment were done by jacobson [1997b; 2001b]. in the latter study, comparisons of numerous parameters were compared with data at each of two stations and other parameters were compared at multiple stations. figures 1 and 2 compare model predictions for february and august 1999 with hourly data, paired in time and space at the times and locations of the data. only a few comparisons are shown since the purpose of the comparisons is to re-evaluate, rather than provide an original evaluation of the model. air pressure was predicted accurately for a month (normalized gross error of 0.1%, or 1 hpa, over all hours of august) under high-pressure conditions. because the model was not spun up, restarted, or assimilated with data, it effectively
What is the growing consensus about emissions of greenhouse gases due to human activity?
there is a growing consensus that emissions of greenhouse gases due to human activity will lead to higher temperatures and increased precipitation
What does the hedonic approach attempts to measure?
the hedonic approach attempts to measure directly the effect of climate on land values
What is the limitation of the hedonic approach?
the limitation is that the validity of this approach requires consistent estimation of the effect of climate on land values
there is a growing consensus that emissions of greenhouse gases due to human activity will lead to higher temperatures and increased precipitation. it is thought that these changes in climate will impact economic well being. since temperature and precipitation are direct inputs in agricultural production, many believe that the largest effects will be in this sector. previous research on climate change is inconclusive about the sign and magnitude of its effect on the value of us agricultural land (see, for example, adams 1989; mendelsohn, nordhaus, and shaw 1994 and 1999; kelly, kolstad, and mitchell 2005; schlenker, hanemann, and fisher 2005a, b). most prior research employs either the production function or hedonic approach to estimate the effect of climate change.1 due to its experimental design, the production function approach provides estimates of the effect of weather on the yields of specific crops that are purged of bias due to determinants of agricultural output that are beyond farmers' control (e.g., soil quality). its disadvantage is that these experimental estimates do not account for the full range of compensatory responses to changes in weather made by profit maximizing farmers. for example in response to a change in climate, farmers may alter their use of fertilizers, change their mix of crops, or even decide to use their farmland for another activity (e.g., a housing complex). since farmer adaptations are completely constrained in the production function approach, it is likely to produce estimates of climate change that are biased downwards. the hedonic approach attempts to measure directly the effect of climate on land values. its clear advantage is that if land markets are operating properly, prices will reflect the present discounted value of land rents into the infinite future. in principle, this approach accounts for the full range of farmer adaptations. the limitation is that the validity of this approach requires consistent estimation of the effect of climate on land values. since at least the classic hoch (1958 and 1962) and mundlak (1961) papers, it has been recognized that unmeasured characteristics (e.g., soil quality) are an important determinant of output and land values in agricultural settings.2 consequently, the hedonic approach may confound climate with other factors and the sign and magnitude of the resulting omitted variables bias is unknown. in light of the importance of the question, this paper proposes a new strategy to estimate the impact of climate change on the agricultural sector. the idea is to exploit the presumably random yearto-year variation in temperature and precipitation to estimate their effect on agricultural profits to assess
Where does the separation of solids occur?
in the second stage the separation of the solids occurs
Which compartment is subjected to high organic loads?
the first compartment being subjected to high organic loads
Where does the separation of gases occur?
separation of the gases in the upper part of the reactor
in the second stage the separation of the solids occurs, which guarantees high biomass retention in the system and a more clarified effluent. basically, the reactor with internal recirculation consists of two uasb reactor compartments, one on top of the other, with the first compartment being subjected to high organic loads. this specific task of gas separation in two stages is done in a larger height reactor (16 to 20 m), making the gases collected in the first stage drag the internal mixture (gas, solids and liquid) to the upper part of the reactor (gas lifting effect). after the separation of the gases in the upper part of the reactor, solids and liquids recirculate to the first compartment, which provides high mixing and the contact of the recirculated biomass with the influent wastewater at the base of the reactor (see figure 26.17).
Tell us about the geographical area and the explored model?
the results indicate a high risk of increasing loss potential for well developed western central european regions if no adaptation to anthropogenic climate change is considered, and partly reduced risk if adaptation is taken into account, depending on the geographical region and the model investigated. this should provide additional motivation for the initiation of prevention measures today, and further development of public and private risk adaptation strategies
Tell us about serious events by increasing the tentative resolution?
admittedly, a larger ensemble of climate models and the investigation of rcms are needed to increase the credibility and applicability of the results presented. nevertheless, by applying this simple storm damage model to climate simulations it has been demonstrated that reasonable results are achieved for recent conditions when compared to observational data sets. most of the intermodel variability in the results for future scenarios does not originate from the damage model itself, but from the different responses of the climate models to anthropogenic climate change. additionally, by increasing the spatial and temporal resolution of climate models the capability of reproducing extreme events should increase
Spread the RCM note?
especially for rcms, this could lead to a better representation of the upper tail of the frequency distribution for the occurrence of extreme events, if a gust parameterization is included, for example. thus, it will be very useful to compare the results from gcms with those achieved from dynamical downscaling in future studies. acknowledgments. this work was supported by the european union programme energy, environment and sustainable development under contract evk2-ct-2001-00118 (mice). we acknowledge the provision of annual loss data by the german insurance association gdv and andrew dlugolecki. we acknowledge the international modelling groups for providing their data for analysis, the program for climate model diagnosis and intercomparison (pcmdi) for collecting and archiving the model data, the jsc/clivar working group on coupled modelling (wgcm) and their coupled model intercomparison project (cmip) and climate simulation panel for organizing the model data analysis activity, and the ipcc wg1 tsu for technical support. the ipcc data archive at lawrence livermore national laboratory is supported by the office of science, u.s. department of energy
the results indicate a high risk of increasing loss potential for well developed western central european regions if no adaptation to anthropogenic climate change is considered, and partly reduced risk if adaptation is taken into account, depending on the geographical region and the model investigated. this should provide additional motivation for the initiation of prevention measures today, and further development of public and private risk adaptation strategies. admittedly, a larger ensemble of climate models and the investigation of rcms are needed to increase the credibility and applicability of the results presented. nevertheless, by applying this simple storm damage model to climate simulations it has been demonstrated that reasonable results are achieved for recent conditions when compared to observational data sets. most of the intermodel variability in the results for future scenarios does not originate from the damage model itself, but from the different responses of the climate models to anthropogenic climate change. additionally, by increasing the spatial and temporal resolution of climate models the capability of reproducing extreme events should increase. especially for rcms, this could lead to a better representation of the upper tail of the frequency distribution for the occurrence of extreme events, if a gust parameterization is included, for example. thus, it will be very useful to compare the results from gcms with those achieved from dynamical downscaling in future studies. acknowledgments. this work was supported by the european union programme energy, environment and sustainable development under contract evk2-ct-2001-00118 (mice). we acknowledge the provision of annual loss data by the german insurance association gdv and andrew dlugolecki. we acknowledge the international modelling groups for providing their data for analysis, the program for climate model diagnosis and intercomparison (pcmdi) for collecting and archiving the model data, the jsc/clivar working group on coupled modelling (wgcm) and their coupled model intercomparison project (cmip) and climate simulation panel for organizing the model data analysis activity, and the ipcc wg1 tsu for technical support. the ipcc data archive at lawrence livermore national laboratory is supported by the office of science, u.s. department of energy.
What did the model show about the relationship between water chemistry and microbial communities?
the model showed that the relationships between water chemistry and microbial communities increased with warming
By what percentage did vascular plants diminish?
vascular plants diminished (19.5
What happened to testate amoebae with a high trophic level after being treated?
treatment effect on testate amoebae with high trophic level significantly increased the link of microbial communities living in surface with moss community structure p 0.01; fig. 6b
in warmed plots, treatment effect on testate amoebae with high trophic level significantly increased the link of microbial communities living in surface with moss community structure p 0.01; fig. 6b). the link between sphagnum -polyphenols and microbial communities also increased and shifted from a negative association in ambient plots to a positive association in warmed plots, especially on microorganisms living in surface layers. this analysis also revealed a decrease of the negative association between mosses on vascular plants community structure in warmed conditions. moreover, the model showed that the relationships between water chemistry and microbial communities increased with warming, especially in litter layers p 0.01). the sem model on warmed plots explained a larger proportion of the variance in moss community structure (19.4%), water chemistry (49.7%), microorganisms in surface (13%) and litter (27.3%) layers, whereas that of vascular plants diminished (19.5%) (fig. 6b).
What helped clarify the interpretation of background charcoal trends for fire-history reconstructions?
analysis of charcoal accumulation rates and their relationship to sedimentation rates, site characteristics, climate, vegetation and fire-episode frequency data helped to clarify the interpretation of background charcoal trends for fire-history reconstructions
What local site characteristics were important controls on the relative charcoal abundance at particular lakes?
local site characteristics, including both lake and watershed size, were important controls on the relative charcoal abundance at particular lakes, suggesting that both aerial and post-fire erosion are important mechanisms of charcoal transportation
Was regional synchroneity apparent in fire-episode frequency records?
regional synchroneity that was not apparent in fire-episode frequency records was observed in the background charcoal records
analysis of charcoal accumulation rates and their relationship to sedimentation rates, site characteristics, climate, vegetation and fire-episode frequency data helped to clarify the interpretation of background charcoal trends for fire-history reconstructions. local site characteristics, including both lake and watershed size, were important controls on the relative charcoal abundance at particular lakes, suggesting that both aerial and post-fire erosion are important mechanisms of charcoal transportation. regional synchroneity that was not apparent in fire-episode frequency records was observed in the background charcoal records. furthermore, these trends were not explained by variations in sedimentation rates. thus, background charcoal trends may be more representative of regional fire activity than composites of local fire-episode frequency records. the regional coherence in background charcoal and similarities between background charcoal and woody taxa proportions suggest that changes in climate and forest cover that affected fire characteristics and fuel levels were important controls on holocene trends in background charcoal.
What are some downfalls to the best area-averaging routines?
optimal procedures (i.e., those deliver the minimal standard error of area averaging) are much more computationally extensive and preserve their optimal properties only when specifics of the statistical structure of meteorological field to be averaged are well known. this is not the case for many of the regions we analyzed and, thus, we opted not to use them
What were the results of testing the robustness of this area-averaging routine implementation?
the results of its implementation are close to those based on area-averaging procedures built on optimal interpolation and optimal averaging with normalizing weights (gandin and kagan 1976; kagan 1997
How long has this particular area-averaging routine been used?
we used this area-averaging routine during the past decade for various climate variables
we used this area-averaging routine during the past decade for various climate variables (e.g., groisman and legates 1995; karl and knight 1998; groisman et al. 2001, 2004) after extensive testing regarding the robustness of the algorithm. the results of its implementation are close to those based on area-averaging procedures built on optimal interpolation and optimal averaging with normalizing weights (gandin and kagan 1976; kagan 1997). optimal procedures (i.e., those deliver the minimal standard error of area averaging) are much more computationally extensive and preserve their optimal properties only when specifics of the statistical structure of meteorological field to be averaged are well known. this is not the case for many of the regions we analyzed and, thus, we opted not to use them.
What did a decrease in cyclone frequency between 1980-2006 mean for US air quality?
a 1980-2006 decrease in cyclone frequency as indicated by the ncep/ncar reanalysis 1 and by the noaa daily weather maps has important implications for the success and accountability of emission control strategies directed at improving u.s. air quality
What could be credited with the reason for the decrease in emissions?
this decrease can be credited to reduction of anthropogenic emissions, but we find that the benefit of these reductions may have been significantly offset by climate change
What have we found from correcting the observed decrease in ozone pollution?
correcting the observed decrease of ozone pollution days for this climate trend, we find that the number of ozone pollution days would have dropped to an expected value of zero by 2001 in the absence of climate change
a 1980-2006 decrease in cyclone frequency as indicated by the ncep/ncar reanalysis 1 and by the noaa daily weather maps has important implications for the success and accountability of emission control strategies directed at improving u.s. air quality. our analysis of the surface ozone data indicates a decrease in the observed number of summertime ozone pollution days in the northeast by 0.84 a-1 over the 1980-2006 period, from an expected value of 31 (1980) to 10 (2006). this decrease can be credited to reduction of anthropogenic emissions, but we find that the benefit of these reductions may have been significantly offset by climate change. taking the relationship between the number of summertime cyclones and the number of ozone pollution days from our correlation analysis, combined with the cyclone trend derived from either reanalysis 1 or the noaa daily weather maps, we deduce that the number of ozone pollution days would have doubled over the 1980-2006 period as a result of climate change if anthropogenic emissions had remained constant. correcting the observed decrease of ozone pollution days for this climate trend, we find that the number of ozone pollution days would have dropped to an expected value of zero by 2001 in the absence of climate change.
How many calibration run for each tree?
the output of the 20,000 calibration runs for each individual tree consisted of a set of 9 parameters 
What was the simulation ranking used?
the ranking of the simulations was very similar regardless of the likelihood (hourly or daily) that was used
What was the predicted rank to form a cumulative distributionwith the measure sap flow?
the predicted transpirations were ranked to form a cumulative distribution and the 5%, 50%, and 95% quantiles were used to compare with the measured sap flows
the output of the 20,000 calibration runs for each individual tree consisted of a set of 9 parameters (the 8 studied ones plus the scaling factor) with its associated likelihood. we selected the best (highest daily likelihood) 5% of parameter sets for each tree and constructed a new file with these parameter sets. the ranking of the simulations was very similar regardless of the likelihood (hourly or daily) that was used. in the case of p. latifolia all the parameter sets from one of the calibration individuals (pl-6; table 3) were rejected because they fitted very badly to the measured sap flows. the measured period was also much shorter for this tree than for any other calibration individual. thus, in total, we had 4,000 selected parameter sets for q. ilex and 3,000 for p. latifolia (1,000 parameter sets per individual). these parameter sets were used in all the following simulations. for each of the 4 validation trees, the model was run for each of the parameter sets of the corresponding species (without the scaling factor). the only parameters that varied among individuals of the same species were the diameter of the stem (measured at 1.5 m) and the scaling factor (we used the values obtained for the corresponding tree in the calibration process, or the species mean if the tree had not been calibrated). to determine the uncertainty bounds at each time step, the predicted transpirations were ranked to form a cumulative distribution and the 5%, 50%, and 95% quantiles were used to compare with the measured sap flows.
In the gendered approach to climate change, are men and boys equally vulnerable to the impacts of climate change?
men and boys are also vulnerable to the impacts of climate change but often in different ways, and these need to be identified and communicated
In the gendered approach to climate change, what areas does research need to be conducted and change needs to happen?
women and girls are involved in relationships with men and boys and it is at the level of these gender relations and the social expectations influencing them that research needs to be conducted and change needs to happen
Why is it critical that more is done to promote women's and children's meaningful participation in decision-making on climate change responses?
it is critical that more is done to promote women's and children's meaningful participation in decision-making on climate change responses, to ensure that climate change policy and grassroots interventions respond to their specific needs and draw on their knowledge and experience
a gender-sensitive response requires more than a set of disaggregated data showing that climate change has differential impacts on women and men. it requires an understanding of existing inequalities between women and men, and of the ways in which climate change can exacerbate these inequalities. conversely, it also requires an understanding of the ways in which these inequalities can intensify the impacts of climate change for all individuals and communities. for example, men may have greater access to vital information on climate change mitigation or adaptation strategies for cultural reasons, or because women are too busy with caring and other domestic responsibilities. this lack of information and lack of opportunity to feed their own knowledge into community or national-level adaptation and mitigation strategies could jeopardise larger processes of reducing climate change and its impacts. gender sensitivity in consultation and decision-making is also essential for effective mitigation and adaptation responses to climate change. more than simply thinking about how these processes can be tailored to the specific needs of poor and vulnerable men and women, there is a need to recognise the capacity of women and men, girls and boys, to contribute important knowledge and insights. with more participative processes, these strategies and interventions can truly identify and meet the needs of those they aim to assist. in this way, processes can be forged that respond to local realities while feeding into a broader vision of climate change deceleration. yet women are more likely than men to be absent from decision-making, whether in the household or at community, national or international levels - either because their contribution is not valued or because they do not have the time, confidence or resources to contribute. recent research by the institute of development studies and plan international has also pointed to the marginalisation of children's voices in household, community and national decision-making relating to climate change - particularly in disaster risk reduction (mitchell et al forthcoming 2008). it is critical that more is done to promote women's and children's meaningful participation in decision-making on climate change responses, to ensure that climate change policy and grassroots interventions respond to their specific needs and draw on their knowledge and experience. in this way the profile and status of women and girls in the community can also be raised, while challenging traditional assumptions about their capabilities. finally, it is important to note that a gendered approach to climate change should not simply be about women. men and boys are also vulnerable to the impacts of climate change but often in different ways, and these need to be identified and communicated. furthermore, women and girls are involved in relationships with men and boys and it is at the level of these gender relations and the social expectations influencing them that research needs to be conducted and change needs to happen.
What are requirements for projected climatic impacts ?
the magnitude of projected climate impacts necessitates radical and systemic changes to the design and function of cities, and relationships between environment and society
The need for cities to adapt is taking place in which era ?
the need for cities to adapt is taking place in an era of austerity, decentralization, and opposition to major urban interventions that can fundamentally undercut the capacity of states to carry out these changes
What are the four ways for adapting planning approaches ?
we identify four ways that adaptation planning approaches can exacerbate existing urban inequality and injustice: the absence of key participants in adaptation planning processes to advocate for the interests of disadvantaged communities; the lack of adaptation planning capacities in many cities that most need it; the lack of intergovernmental frameworks that support adaptation planning at the regional and metropolitan scales; and the divide between theorizing justice in academia and implementing adaptation interventions across physical designs and infrastructure systems on the ground
towards a research agenda for just adaptation the magnitude of projected climate impacts necessitates radical and systemic changes to the design and function of cities, and relationships between environment and society37,91. paradoxically, the need for cities to adapt is taking place in an era of austerity, decentralization, and opposition to major urban interventions that can fundamentally undercut the capacity of states to carry out these changes. in this paper, we identify four ways that adaptation planning approaches can exacerbate existing urban inequality and injustice: the absence of key participants in adaptation planning processes to advocate for the interests of disadvantaged communities; the lack of adaptation planning capacities in many cities that most need it; the lack of intergovernmental frameworks that support adaptation planning at the regional and metropolitan scales; and the divide between theorizing justice in academia and implementing adaptation interventions across physical designs and infrastructure systems on the ground. the
What does the sign indicate?
the sign indicates the actual opinion of businesspeople from a given sector or sub-sector
The companies are asked to give their assessment of the current business situation and their expectations for the next how many months?
the companies are asked to give their assessment of the current business situation and their expectations for the next six months
What can the index vary between?
the index may vary between +100 (fully optimistic situation) and -100 (pessimistic situation
the sign indicates the actual opinion of businesspeople from a given sector or sub-sector. in this case, the index may vary between +100 (fully optimistic situation) and -100 (pessimistic situation). there are also private agencies that conduct surveys by evaluating the business forecasts in their own area. for example, caja segovia (2006), conducted a survey of businesses located in the capital of segovia (60 respondents) and some cities of the province (50 respondents), using a stratified random sample. business climate surveys are also carried out on an international level. perhaps the business climate surveys are also carried out on an international level. perhaps the best known among them is the one conducted in germany to calculate the so called ifo business climate index in that research 7,000 businesses operating in all sectors of the economy are surveyed on a monthly basis. the companies are asked to give their assessment of the current business situation and their expectations for the next six months. they can characterize their situation as "good", "satisfactory" or "poor," and their expectations for the
Why are we underestimating the percentages of species that will be able to keep up with climate change?
we are underestimating the percentages of species that will be unable to keep pace with climate change because the percentages are based on dispersal estimates that do not incorporate landscape permeability
In what regions are the species more likely to reach suitable climate when the permeability of the landscape is ignored?
n eastern brazil, the eastern united states, southern mexico, and central america, species are likely to reach suitable climate when the permeability of the landscape along the dispersal route is ignored
Incorporating which two pieces of data will generate more realistic estimates of the velocities species need to travel to reach suitable climates?
in addition to incorporating the humandominated land uses into species ' dispersal routes, incorporating species-speci fi c habitat preferences along with projected changes in habitat through time would generate more realistic estimates of the velocities species need to travel to reach suitable climates
we are underestimating the percentages of species that will be unable to keep pace with climate change because the percentages are based on dispersal estimates that do not incorporate landscape permeability. landscape permeability is the degree to which the landscape facilitates animal movement (18). human-dominated land uses between some species ' ranges and regions of future suitable climate will increase the percentage of species that are unable to keep pace with climate change by requiring faster dispersal along longer alternative routes. in regions in which extensive human land use is ubiquitous, inhospitable landscapes may not lengthen dispersal routes because alternative routes through more permeable landscapes may not be available. in the subsample of 38 species, carnivores will likely travel through landscapes with extensive human land use, but those landscape patterns will have relatively little impact on their movement routes. in these regions and for these species, dispersal may be less successful due to the potential for decreased survival and reproduction in less suitable habitats. fig. 5 is derived from straight-line movement routes of all 493 mammals and it highlights the regions from which we estimate land use to make keeping pace with climate change more dif fi cult either as a result of increased distances in dispersal routes or decreased fi tness. in eastern brazil, the eastern united states, southern mexico, and central america, species are likely to reach suitable climate when the permeability of the landscape along the dispersal route is ignored. however, extensive human land use between these regions and regions of future suitable climate will likely add additional challenges to the capacity for species to track their climatic niches. these regions may therefore be important areas from which to focus connectivity efforts because in these regions species have the ability to keep pace with climate change, provided that the landscape does not impede their survival or movement. in addition to incorporating the humandominated land uses into species ' dispersal routes, incorporating species-speci fi c habitat preferences along with projected changes in habitat through time would generate more realistic estimates of the velocities species need to travel to reach suitable climates. however, the detailed data required for these analyses are not available for most species and the extensive processing time required for least-cost modeling makes these analyses infeasible for large numbers of species.
Are there climate changes contained in the period of widespread instrumental observations of weather and climate, basically from the middle Nineteenth Century, that appear to be analogues of past abrupt climate changes?
the period of widespread instrumental observations of weather and climate, basically from the middle nineteenth century, when measurements from ships were begun, until the present, contains many climate changes but none that appear to be analogues, even in weakened form, of past abrupt climate changes
At which timescales has The North Atlantic region experienced climate changes?
the north atlantic region has experienced climate changes on decadal timescales
How has the more recent upward trend been explained?
the more recent upward trend has been explained as a consequence of rising greenhouse gases (shindell et al. 1999) or as a response to indian ocean warming (hoerling et al. 2004). both explanations make the earlier opposite trend hard to explain. although basin-wide sst anomalies, that could be related paleo.circ february 28, 2005
the period of widespread instrumental observations of weather and climate, basically from the middle nineteenth century, when measurements from ships were begun, until the present, contains many climate changes but none that appear to be analogues, even in weakened form, of past abrupt climate changes. the north atlantic region has experienced climate changes on decadal timescales. these have primarily been associated with changes in the atmosphere circulation. for example the trend from a low index to a high index state of the northern annular mode (nam) between the 1960s and late 1990s brought striking changes of climate to western europe including drought in spain and milder, snowier winters, and advancing glaciers in western norway. the nam trended in the opposite direction from the 1920s through to the 1960s. the more recent upward trend has been explained as a consequence of rising greenhouse gases (shindell et al. 1999) or as a response to indian ocean warming (hoerling et al. 2004). both explanations make the earlier opposite trend hard to explain. although basin-wide sst anomalies, that could be related paleo.circ february 28, 2005
What may happen to the economy if environmental issues are not focused on by businesses?
as the concentration of greenhouse gases rises, so the substitution between natural and man-made capital declines. the ipcc (and the un fccc) argue that we should avoid this prospect, and should do this through a stabilization of emissions now
What are some consequences of an increasing population and business?
but with ever more people, and with biodiversity loss and climate change, their consumption possibilities (per head, and even in aggregate) may be reduced. the oceans are already highly polluted, agricultural land is being affected by salinization and desertification, and global warming will have serious effects on the areas where population is most heavily concentrated
How is sustainability interpreted from the text?
sustainability is an interpretation of a principle of equity over time. it measures the consumption possibilities over time against a constraint: they must not deteriorate
these considerations are important for two separate reasons: gdp may not be a proxy for the level of consumption that is consistent with a sustainability criterion--the prevention of the consumption possibilities of future generations falling below our own (non-decreasing utility over time); and the gdp measure of the costs of climate change which the stern report gives may be a significant underestimate, because climate change (and biodiversity loss and all the other environmental damage from economic activities) may lower the growth rate. we deal with the second issue in the next section, and concentrate here on the sustainability criterion. sustainability is an interpretation of a principle of equity over time. it measures the consumption possibilities over time against a constraint: they must not deteriorate. people in the future will have better technology (we can assume that technical progress will continue and saturation effects are unlikely). in this sense, they will be better off. the supply function will continue to shift outwards. but with ever more people, and with biodiversity loss and climate change, their consumption possibilities (per head, and even in aggregate) may be reduced. the oceans are already highly polluted, agricultural land is being affected by salinization and desertification, and global warming will have serious effects on the areas where population is most heavily concentrated. there will be some compensating benefits from increased temperatures to some agricultural areas (and from high-carbon concentrations in the atmosphere benefiting some plant growth). and there will be the gains from new technology. but the net effects of these factors are captured by some measure of economic well-being which incorporates the depreciation of natural capital (including the climate and biodiversity) and the associated costs. the kinds of information necessary to construct this sort of measure do not exist in conventional gdp accounts. nevertheless, some conjectures can be made about the impact of a more comprehensive measure which can be linked back to the argument made above about carbon consumption. the ipcc target of stabilization at 450-550 ppm is not based on any explicit optimization exercise, but it can be taken as a proxy. beyond that level, climate change may have 'dangerous' consequences, and it may not be easy to control. in other words, once this level is reached, we are into the 'fat tail' of the probability distribution of global temperature outcomes--of really big economic effects from more dramatic climate change. one way of thinking about this is that, as the concentration of greenhouse gases rises, so the substitution between natural and man-made capital declines. the ipcc (and the un fccc) argue that we should avoid this prospect, and should do this through a stabilization of emissions now. since we are, by definition, on a business-as-usual path, the implication is that the current consumption path does not meet the sustainability criterion. by how much are we over-consuming? on the ipcc's analysis, the answer is: by the costs of reverting to the 450-550 ppm path, adjusted first for the outward movement out of the supply function owing to man-made capital appreciation, human capital, and technical change over the same period, and adjusted second for other related and unrelated environmental damage. what would it take to revert to the 450-550 ppm path? the answer is: the reduction of carbon consumption to the preferred path. how far are we above it? this is the amount measured by the path of carbon consumption over time, incorporating the aviation and shipping, and the net carbon composition of imports and exports. from the calculations referred to above, in the uk case, it may perhaps be more than 30 per cent when the difference between consumption increases are compared with the required consumption falls. the eu and the usa may not be greatly different. this is the gap which scientists tell us must be urgently addressed in the next decade or two.
What are the several modes?
the major building blocks of ccms are the dynamical core, physical processes (e.g., radiation, convection, boundary layer processes, and cloud physics), the transport scheme, and the chemistry and microphysics modules associated with chemical composition change. these major components are linked by feedback processes, e.g. radiatively active chemical tracers feeding into radiation
What are the several modes?
the major building blocks of ccms are the dynamical core, physical processes (e.g., radiation, convection, boundary layer processes, and cloud physics), the transport scheme, and the chemistry and microphysics modules associated with chemical composition change. these major components are linked by feedback processes, e.g. radiatively active chemical tracers feeding into radiation
What are the several modes?
the major building blocks of ccms are the dynamical core, physical processes (e.g., radiation, convection, boundary layer processes, and cloud physics), the transport scheme, and the chemistry and microphysics modules associated with chemical composition change. these major components are linked by feedback processes, e.g. radiatively active chemical tracers feeding into radiation
the major building blocks of ccms are the dynamical core, physical processes (e.g., radiation, convection, boundary layer processes, and cloud physics), the transport scheme, and the chemistry and microphysics modules associated with chemical composition change. these major components are linked by feedback processes, e.g. radiatively active chemical tracers feeding into radiation, or circulation changes affecting chemical composition wmo 2007, figure 5 - 1]. for explanations of model names and associated institutions see table 1. table 2 lists the basis gcms of the ccmval - 2 models. several models share a common heritage. the e39ca, emac, and socol models are all based on the echam gcm. (note that socol simulations have been contributed by two different groups; their model setups
What did Ashforth Humphrey say of the term â€œAffectâ€?
affect is an integral and inseparable part of organizational life (ashforth humphrey, 1995
What have researchers described?
researchers have described a variety of different kinds of affective experiences and have shown their important role in work teams' processes and outcomes (ashkanasy, ha"rtel, zerbe, 2000; brief weiss, 2002; fisher ashkanasy, 2000; muchinsky, 2000
What have recent developments in the study of affect highlighted?
recent developments in the study of affect have highlighted a number of interesting issues with regard to the role of affective experiences as a team-level phenomenon and the factors that contribute to the configuration of these experiences (barsade, 2002; barsade, ward, turner, sonnenfeld, 2000; bartel saavedra, 2000
affect is an integral and inseparable part of organizational life (ashforth humphrey, 1995). work team members' affective experiences and states have been an area of growing interest in the organizational research, and they are implicit in numerous organizational and psychological theories. researchers have described a variety of different kinds of affective experiences and have shown their important role in work teams' processes and outcomes (ashkanasy, ha"rtel, zerbe, 2000; brief weiss, 2002; fisher ashkanasy, 2000; muchinsky, 2000). most of the research about the role of affect has been carried out at the individual level. however, recent developments in the study of affect have highlighted a number of interesting issues with regard to the role of affective experiences as a team-level phenomenon and the factors that contribute to the configuration of these experiences (barsade, 2002; barsade, ward, turner, sonnenfeld, 2000; bartel saavedra, 2000). conflict that takes place in teams due to discrepancies among team members has been strongly associated with affect experienced by the members (thomas, 1976). there are two different types of conflict, depending on the source of the discrepancy,
How do poor and marginalized men and women deal with this challenge? Have a limited capacity to deal with these challenges
the missing component of the response to climate change differences. poor and marginalized men and women have a limited ability to cope with these challenges
How in most societies, especially in developing countries, what is the income of women? women have lower income and fewer opportunities than men
as in most societies, particularly in developing countries, women have lower incomes and fewer opportunities than men
How should gender-specific differences in adaptive and mitigative capacity be? Must be fully recognized and considered, with special attention to the design and implementation of response strategies.
the gender-specific differences in adaptive and mitigative capacity must be fully acknowledged and considered paying special attention to the design and implementation of response strategies
gender: the missing component of the response to climate change differences. poor and marginalized men and women have a limited ability to cope with these challenges.3 as in most societies, particularly in developing countries, women have lower incomes and fewer opportunities than men. thus their adaptive and mitigative capacity is lower than those of males. climate policies are thus not automatically gender-neutral. the gender-specific differences in adaptive and mitigative capacity must be fully acknowledged and considered paying special attention to the design and implementation of response strategies. given this reality, the next step should be the search of new ways for integrating the gender variable into international negotiations for the second and subsequent commitment periods, into national regimes for mitigation and adaptation and into project activities under the clean development mechanism and joint implementation. experience in reviewing gender aspects in natural disaster management and development cooperation, offer good suggestions for the development of policies to address the gender variable. the message is clear: while women are generally more vulnerable to impacts of climate change, in many cases they exhibit surprising resilience. moreover, their responsibility for greenhouse gas emissions is relatively lower than the one of men (as some early data shows), but the differences narrow with increasing equality of opportunity. how can we enhance resilience and adaptive capacity for women while avoiding that their emission profiles follow a "male model"? the challenge is to elaborate responses not imposed from above, but modelled on needs, aspirations, knowledge and capabilities of individuals that are then actively involved as crucial partners in these efforts. an active dialogue between the development and the climate policy communities should address much more the deep linkages between development, poverty eradication and climate protection. on the road towards cop-11 and to the first meeting of the parties to the kyoto protocol the following considerations could offer occasion for further developments and initiatives for gender sensitive climate strategies: "gender, like poverty, is a cross cutting issue in climate change and needs to be recognised as such. in fact, gender and poverty are interrelated and create mutually reinforcing barriers to social change. there is a need to be strident to overcome the uniformed view of many involved in climate change that climate change is neutral, and real life examples are needed to make the alternative case clear and convincing"4.
How does the IPCC (2001) define vulnerability to climate change?
the ipcc (2001) definition of vulnerability, which explains it as a function of adaptive capacity, sensitivity, and exposure
What method was used to give weights to the different factors affecting vulnerability?
the method of principal component analysis was employed to give weights to the different factors affecting vulnerability
How can early warning of extreme climatic events, such as drought, help farmers?
early warning of extreme climatic events, such as drought, can alert farmers to sell their livestock and buy food and other items. without this warning, such events could shrink or kill livestock that would have been used to insure farmers
this study analyzed the vulnerability of ethiopian farmers to climate change by creating vulnerability indices and comparing these indices across regions. seven of ethiopia's 11 regional states were considered for this study. the vulnerability analysis followed the ipcc (2001) definition of vulnerability, which explains it as a function of adaptive capacity, sensitivity, and exposure. the socioeconomic and environmental factors of each region were included in developing the vulnerability indices. thus, the integrated vulnerability assessment approaches were adopted to combine these biophysical and socioeconomic indicators. the socioeconomic factors include wealth, literacy rate, technology, institutions, and infrastructure. the biophysical factors include irrigation potential, frequency of climate extremes, and future changes in temperature and rainfall. these factors were again divided into three categories to reflect adaptive capacity, sensitivity, and exposure. positive values were attached to adaptive capacity and negative values to sensitivity and exposure. the method of principal component analysis was employed to give weights to the different factors affecting vulnerability. vulnerability was calculated as the net effect of sensitivity and exposure on adaptive capacity. results indicate that afar, somali, oromia, and tigray are relatively more vulnerable to climate change. the vulnerability of afar and somali is attributed to their low level of regional development. the vulnerability of tigray and oromia is attributed to higher frequencies of drought and flood and lower access to technology, institutions, and infrastructure. unlike afar and somali, the lower access to technology, institutions, and infrastructure in tigray and oromia is due to their high population in proportion to what is available. the scale of analysis for this study is at the regional level, which is highly aggregated. each region included in this study covers a very wide area of land characterized by different biophysical and socioeconomic attributes. these variations within each region should be considered in order to target areas that are highly vulnerable and to recommend appropriate interventions. although the results of this study indicate the general features of each included region, future research should focus on local levels, especially district or village levels, where actual dynamics of vulnerability to climate change take place. based on the analysis, a few general policy options for decreasing the vulnerability of ethiopian farmers to climate change can be presented. in general, vulnerability to climate change in ethiopia is highly related to poverty (loss of copying or adaptive capacity) in most of the regions that were indicated as vulnerable. integrated rural development schemes aimed at alleviating poverty can play the double role of reducing poverty and increasing adaptive capacity to climate change. special emphasis on the relatively less-developed regions of the country (i.e., afar and somali), as well as the relatively more populated regions (e.g., oromia and tigray), in terms of investment in technology, institutions, and infrastructure can also play a significant role. moreover, early warning of extreme climatic events, such as drought, can alert farmers to sell their livestock and buy food and other items. without this warning, such events could shrink or kill livestock that would have been used to insure farmers. in addition, investment in irrigation in places with high potential for irrigation (e.g., snnp) can increase the country's food supply. this supply could then be stored and soled out during drought events instead of depending on food aid from other nations. strengthening the ongoing micro-level adaptation methods of governmental and nongovernmental organizations, such as water harvesting and other natural resource conservation programs, can also boost the adaptive capacities of farmers. 17 17
At what points do we examine the boundary layers?
given that the models appear to generally share a bias of the boundary layer cloud being too low and insufficiently reflective, we now examine the boundary layer structure at a point 61 8 s, 2 8 w, marked with an asterisk in fig. 6
What do the profiles of temperature and humidity indicate?
the profiles of temperature and humidity from the ecmwf analysis at 1200 utc 17 january 2009 are plotted in fig. 9. the profile indicates a near saturated layer between 925 and 870 hpa
given that the models appear to generally share a bias of the boundary layer cloud being too low and insufficiently reflective, we now examine the boundary layer structure at a point 61 8 s, 2 8 w, marked with an asterisk in fig. 6. the profiles of temperature and humidity from the ecmwf analysis at 1200 utc 17 january 2009 are plotted in fig. 9. the profile indicates a near saturated layer between 925 and 870 hpa. above this is a strong temperature inversion with its top at 815 hpa and a much dryer free troposphere above this. the profiles from the models verifying at the same time, 30 h into the hindcast, generally capture the presence of an inversion
Who carry the  electricity sector work?
work was carried out by epri (1999) to provide a framework for managing the effects of regulatory uncertainty, and ishii and yan (2004) looked at the overall effects of regulatory uncertainty on investment rates in the us. in the area of shortterm planning, real options were used by e.g. tseng and barz (2002) and hlouskova et al. (2005) at the same time, a number of long-term planning frameworks have emerged
Explain some recent examples?
recent examples include fleten et al. (2007) who find that investment in power plants require greater returns than the traditional net-present-value (npv) breakeven point when a real options approach with stochastic prices is used
Whom there will be influence of future uncertain emissions?
also laurikka (2004) laurikka and koljonen (2006) kiriyama and suzuki (2004) deal with the influence of future uncertain emissions trading and with co2 penalties within a real options setup
investment in the electricity sector has been analysed within real options frameworks before. work was carried out by epri (1999) to provide a framework for managing the effects of regulatory uncertainty, and ishii and yan (2004) looked at the overall effects of regulatory uncertainty on investment rates in the us. in the area of shortterm planning, real options were used by e.g. tseng and barz (2002) and hlouskova et al. (2005) at the same time, a number of long-term planning frameworks have emerged. recent examples include fleten et al. (2007) who find that investment in power plants require greater returns than the traditional net-present-value (npv) breakeven point when a real options approach with stochastic prices is used. real options approaches have also been quite widely used to model the effects of uncertain climate change policy. rothwell (2006) finds that returns on investment in nuclear plant need to be higher in a scenario with uncertain carbon prices than in a world with certain prices. also laurikka (2004) laurikka and koljonen (2006) kiriyama and suzuki (2004) deal with the influence of future uncertain emissions trading and with co2 penalties within a real options setup. in these models, the design of emissions trading schemes and the number of allowances that are freely distributed are main features of the overall model. another example of the application of real options approach to the problem of uncertain climate policy is reedman et al. (2006) who show that uptake of various electricity generation technologies varies significantly depending on investor's view of carbon price uncertainty. in this work, we focus less on the specific design of policy, and more on the general effects of uncertain future policy decisions that could significantly and rapidly alter investor's expectations about the effective future price of carbon. examples that could be envisaged include a significant tightening of targets from one period of an emissions trading scheme to the next, or conversely a deterioration in international negotiations that leads to a collapse in the price of carbon. we focus in particular on the timing of these uncertain events with respect to the investment decision, with a view to providing insights into how policy-makers can create greater certainty for investors. a way to intuitively understand the approach is to realise that investors, faced with a risky irreversible decision, will value the opportunity to gain additional information about likely future conditions affecting the project, thereby reducing uncertainty. this could mean investing in
How the patterns are scaled?
the patterns are scaled to 1degc global mean surface temperature change above the reference period 1986-2005 for 2081-2100 (first row) and for a period of approximate stable temperature, 2181-2200 (thus excluding rcp8.5, which does not stabilize by that time) (second row
What is the change range of the spatial correlation of fields of temperature?
spatial correlation of fields of temperature and precipitation change range from 0.93 to 0.99 when considering ensemble means under different rcps
When the lower values are found?
the lower values are found when computing correlation between rcp2.6 and the higher rcps, and may be related to the high mitigation
on the basis of cmip5 simulations, we show geographical patterns (figure 12.10) of warming and precipitation change and indicate measures of their variability across models and across rcps. the patterns are scaled to 1degc global mean surface temperature change above the reference period 1986-2005 for 2081-2100 (first row) and for a period of approximate stable temperature, 2181-2200 (thus excluding rcp8.5, which does not stabilize by that time) (second row). spatial correlation of fields of temperature and precipitation change range from 0.93 to 0.99 when considering ensemble means under different rcps. the lower values are found when computing correlation between rcp2.6 and the higher rcps, and may be related to the high mitigation
How are the drivers and patterns of climate change verified? They are well reviewed
the drivers and patterns of observed and predicted climate change are well reviewed
How can a useful distinction be made? can be done between long-term (decadal) trends
a useful distinction can be drawn between longterm (decadal
What is needed Depending on the speed and direction of these trends? incremental or transformative adaptation is required
depending on the speed and direction of these trends, incremental or transformative adaptation is needed
the drivers and patterns of observed and predicted climate change are well reviewed (9). a useful distinction can be drawn between longterm (decadal) trends and near-term increases in variability in climate (10), though the same radiative forcing drives both. in the absence of complete mitigation, society needs, in the long term, to adapt to gradual changes in the means and distributions of temperatures and precipitation. depending on the speed and direction of these trends, incremental or transformative adaptation is needed (10). most immediately, climate change is being experienced as increasing temporal and spatial variability in temperature, precipitation, and winds, particularly the incidence and magnitude of extreme events. the types of extreme events that are likely to increase include the frequency and intensity of
What are threats to watershed system?
increased atmospheric co2 concentration and climate change may significantly impact the hydrological and meteorological processes of a watershed system
Which model was applied to assess the effects of increased CO2 concentration and climate change in the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB)  ?
in this study, the soil and water assessment tool (swat) model was applied to assess the effects of increased co2 concentration and climate change in the upper mississippi river basin (umrb
What is the impact of increased CO2?
for estimating the historical impacts of increased co2 in the recent past decades, the incremental (i.e., dynamic) rises of co2 concentration at a monthly time-scale were also introduced into the model. our study results indicated that about 1-4% of the streamflow in the umrb during 1986 through 2008 could be attributed to the elevated co2 concentration. in addition to evaluating a range of future climate sensitivity scenarios, the climate projections by
increased atmospheric co2 concentration and climate change may significantly impact the hydrological and meteorological processes of a watershed system. quantifying and understanding hydrological responses to elevated ambient co2 and climate change is, therefore, critical for formulating adaptive strategies for an appropriate management of water resources. in this study, the soil and water assessment tool (swat) model was applied to assess the effects of increased co2 concentration and climate change in the upper mississippi river basin (umrb). the standard swat model was modified to represent more mechanistic vegetation type specific responses of stomatal conductance reduction and leaf area increase to elevated co2 based on physiological studies. for estimating the historical impacts of increased co2 in the recent past decades, the incremental (i.e., dynamic) rises of co2 concentration at a monthly time-scale were also introduced into the model. our study results indicated that about 1-4% of the streamflow in the umrb during 1986 through 2008 could be attributed to the elevated co2 concentration. in addition to evaluating a range of future climate sensitivity scenarios, the climate projections by
What does this specific methodology, spoke of in this paragraph, rely upon?
this methodology relies on the assimilation of remotely sensed observations of near-surface soil moisture content using a onedimensional kalman filter
What does this series of numerical experiments using the proposed methodology illustrate?
the true soil moisture content may be retrieved for the entire soil profile from remote sensing observations of the near-surface soil moisture content
What is the finding of this study?
the assimilation of near-surface soil moisture content works best for regions with shallower soils, particularly depths less than 3 m
a methodology for generating soil moisture initialization states for global climate models which does not rely on spinning-up the land surface model has been described. rather, this methodology relies on the assimilation of remotely sensed observations of near-surface soil moisture content using a onedimensional kalman filter. a series of numerical experiments using the proposed methodology has illustrated that the true soil moisture content may be retrieved for the entire soil profile from remote sensing observations of the near-surface soil moisture content. moreover, the effect of errors in soil moisture forecasts on the partitioning of atmospheric forcing into evapotranspiration and runoff has been illustrated. this study found that the assimilation of near-surface soil moisture content works best for regions with shallower soils, particularly depths less than 3 m. the soil moisture retrieval figure 4. temporal variation of error in soil moisture simulation with degraded initial conditions for soil moisture and assimilation of synthetic near-surface soil moisture observations. figure 5. temporal variation of error in soil moisture simulation with degraded initial conditions for soil moisture and assimilation of synthetic near-surface soil moisture observations with only partial covariance forecasting. figure 6. temporal variation of average evapotranspiration for north america.
What are two examples of climatic parameters?
temperature, precipitation
What are two examples of topographic parameters?
slope, aspect
What shifts under climate change has the focus been on?
has focused on ecological issues
the distribution of tree species in forests is a function of climatic (temperature, precipitation) and topographic (slope, aspect) parameters, among others. a change in climate parameters will influence the range of most species. forests are under strong pressure from global change7and from the ensuing increases in abiotic and biotic hazards8. with an expected change of temperature and precipitation, cold-adapted and mesic species such as norway spruce picea abies karst), one of the major commercial tree species in europe, will over the long term lose larger fractions of their ranges at the cost of more drought-adapted species such as oaks quercus spp.). so far, the discussion of anticipated large-scale biome shifts under climate change has focused on ecological issues6. however, these shifts may also have severe economic consequences, including income losses to forest owners, and reductions in raw material for the wood products industry, if measures to compensate for them are not taken. here we estimate the economic impact of projected climate change for a wide range of temperature increases (between 1.4 and 5 8*c until 2100), using a high-resolution model that predicts presence or absence for 32 tree species under different climate projections in europe (supplementary information s1).
What changes is the guidebook highlighting?
guidebook highlight processes used by science-management partnerships to identify what is known about climate change, what is not known, and uncertainty about projecting future scenarios
The guidenook is studying the effects of climate change on what?
guidebook builds mostly on the national forests and national parks chapters
what ecosystems are highlighted?
information on future climate change scenarios and effects of climate change provide insight on probable future conditions of ecosystems on federal lands
this guidebook builds mostly on the national forests and national parks chapters in sap 4.4. other sections of the guidebook highlight processes used by science-management partnerships to identify what is known about climate change, what is not known, and uncertainty about projecting future scenarios. this is relevant for workshops in which unique characteristics of a national forest are discussed in light of current information at regional and local spatial scales. written reports, such as those recently prepared by inyo national forest and shoshone national forest on aspen and climate (morelli and carr 2011), also help to provide a common synthesis and assessment of scientific information relevant to a management unit in a particular geographic location. information on future climate change scenarios and effects of climate change provide insight on probable future conditions of ecosystems on federal lands. for example, dgvm modeling results have been used to depict future vegetation changes in the pacific northwest (fig. 5). this information assists land managers in identifying broad changes that may affect landscape condition and habitat for plant and animal species.
The unavoidable uncertainty in such analyses, and contingency on other socioeconomic and public health determinants in the past or future limits what?
while these can give useful indications, the unavoidable uncertainty in such analyses, and contingency on other socioeconomic and public health determinants in the past or future, limit their utility as decision-support tools
What is the most pressing need for operational health agencies?
for operational health agencies, the most pressing need is the strengthening of current disease control efforts to bring down current disease rates and manage short-term climate risks, which will, in turn, increase resilience to long-term climate change
Which agencies are working through a range of programmes?
the who and partner agencies
department of public health, environmental and social determinants of health, world health organization, ch-1211 geneva, switzerland 2immunization, vaccines and emergencies cluster, world health organization regional office for africa, brazzaville, congo 3health promotion cluster, world health organization regional office for africa, brazzaville, congo 4unicef/undp/world bank/who special programme for research and training in tropical diseases (tdr), world health organization, ch-1211 geneva, switzerland vector-borne diseases continue to contribute significantly to the global burden of disease, and cause epidemics that disrupt health security and cause wider socioeconomic impacts around the world. all are sensitive in different ways to weather and climate conditions, so that the ongoing trends of increasing temperature and more variable weather threaten to undermine recent global progress against these diseases. here, we review the current state of the global public health effort to address this challenge, and outline related initiatives by the world health organization (who) and its partners. much of the debate to date has centred on attribution of past changes in disease rates to climate change, and the use of scenario-based models to project future changes in risk for specific diseases. while these can give useful indications, the unavoidable uncertainty in such analyses, and contingency on other socioeconomic and public health determinants in the past or future, limit their utility as decision-support tools. for operational health agencies, the most pressing need is the strengthening of current disease control efforts to bring down current disease rates and manage short-term climate risks, which will, in turn, increase resilience to long-term climate change. the who and partner agencies are working through a range of programmes to (i) ensure political support and financial investment in preventive and curative interventions to bring down current disease burdens; (ii) promote a comprehensive approach to climate risk management; (iii) support applied research, through definition of global and regional research agendas, and targeted research initiatives on priority diseases and population groups.
what are the policies that have been employed to manage fires?
fire suppression, prescribed burning, forest thinning, and natural wildfires
what is the contentious issue and requires significant resources from government, industry, and community,
managing emissions from fires
What is fire suppression?
is the complete prevention and extinguishing of any fire
managing emissions from fires continues to be a contentious issue and requires significant resources from government, industry, and community, particularly as more land becomes settled and the urban-wildland interface is extended. fire suppression, prescribed burning, forest thinning, and natural wildfires are some of the policies that have been employed to manage fires. the approaches used depend largely on the nature of the fire regime, and the land use activities that are affected. fire suppression is the complete prevention and extinguishing of any fire. the effectiveness of fire suppression in controlling fire activity is heavily debated and seems to be dependent on ecosystem type. the suggestion that fire suppression increases the probability of a catastrophic fire event is based on the accumulation of fuel that occurs under a fire suppression regime. some ecosystems such as yellow pine forests have a long history of surface fires so that fire suppression policies have resulted in the exclusion of fire during the last century, the accumulation of fuel and the consequent occurrence of large crown fires.[155]however, in the boreal forests of ontario, there is insufficient evidence to suggest that suppression of fire has significantly changed the fire cycle.[156]
How were a total of 176 K"oppen-Geiger climate classification maps compiled for each of the 4 emission scenarios covering the period 1901-2100?
applying a 25 year running average to the observed and projected monthly temperature and precipitation data
How were a total of 176 K"oppen-Geiger climate classification maps archived?
as computer animations and available via the internet (http://koeppen-geiger.vu-wien.ac.at
What was the map representing the IPCCA1Fl emission scenario selected to show?
the scenario with maximum climate shift
applying a 25 year running average to the observed and projected monthly temperature and precipitation data, a total of 176 k"oppen-geiger climate classification maps was compiled for each of the 4 emission scenarios covering the period 1901-2100. they are archived as computer animations and available via the internet (http://koeppen-geiger.vu-wien.ac.at/). two of these world maps, one for the observational period 1901-1925 and one for the projection period 2076-2100, are depicted in fig. 1 and fig. 2. the map representing the ipcc a1fi emission scenario was selected for fig. 2 to show the scenario with maximum climate shift. for a further printed map we refer to kottek et al. (2006), who published a map representative for the current climate period 1951-2000.
Where was the starting point for coherent and credible global response  ?
the starting point was the so-called rio earth summit in 1992, which gave rise to the un framework convention on climate change (un fccc, 1992
What was the agreement on UN Framework Convention on Climate Change ?
at this summit, there was a very widespread agreement to act--and this consensus was achieved largely because the convention did not, in fact, mandate much by way of immediate and binding actions or economic impacts on the nation states. it was an agreement without many immediate political or economic consequences. it promised much and cost little
The IPCC have achieved its main goals ?
the ipcc processes and reports have, not surprisingly, been controversial, but the ipcc has largely achieved its main aims
faced with these powerful adverse trends, how much progress has been made so far to slow down the rate of growth of carbon emissions, and how far has the groundwork been laid for a coherent and credible global response? the answer on both counts is worryingly little. the starting point was the so-called rio earth summit in 1992, which gave rise to the un framework convention on climate change (un fccc, 1992). at this summit, there was a very widespread agreement to act--and this consensus was achieved largely because the convention did not, in fact, mandate much by way of immediate and binding actions or economic impacts on the nation states. it was an agreement without many immediate political or economic consequences. it promised much and cost little. what was, however, achieved was to set up a process and a negotiating forum, and the role of the ipcc was reinforced, being tasked to examine the science and policy options, with a view to creating a consensus on the facts, the forecasts, and the policy recommendations that would form the basis for the development of international agreements to limit greenhouse-gas emissions. the ipcc processes and reports have, not surprisingly, been controversial, but the ipcc has largely achieved its main aims. it has provided the international scientific forum for analysis and debate, and although its conclusions have had to be negotiated, they have proved remarkably robust. dissenting academics and others have from time to time cried foul, and in important respects they have been proved right. however, it is notable that this dissent has been more heavily focused on the economics and policy aspects and less on the pure science.12
To what extent is anthropogenic forcing at regional scales important?
with growing concerns about regional impacts of climate change in natural systems, attribution of climate change to anthropogenic forcing at regional scales is becoming more important
Are there any limitations to regional scales?
however, as was also discussed by hegerl et al.,2attribution at regional scales is limited at present by the relatively lower signal-to-noise ratios, the difficulties of separately attributing the effects of the wider range of possible forcing factors at these scales, and limitations of models in capturing some characteristics of regional climate variability
Can global scale and regional scale information be combined in the same analysis?
one issue to be addressed is how to combine global scale and regional scale information in the same analysis. rather than analyze each separate region in isolation, christidis et al.23calculated distributions of regional trends using constraints from a global optimal detection analysis and multiple climate models
with growing concerns about regional impacts of climate change in natural systems, attribution of climate change to anthropogenic forcing at regional scales is becoming more important. however, as was also discussed by hegerl et al.,2attribution at regional scales is limited at present by the relatively lower signal-to-noise ratios, the difficulties of separately attributing the effects of the wider range of possible forcing factors at these scales, and limitations of models in capturing some characteristics of regional climate variability. one issue to be addressed is how to combine global scale and regional scale information in the same analysis. rather than analyze each separate region in isolation, christidis et al.23calculated distributions of regional trends using constraints from a global optimal detection analysis and multiple climate models. figure 5 compares distributions of regional mean near-surface temperature trends consistent with the observed effects of anthropogenic and natural forcings (in red) with distributions of trends in the world that might have been if there had been no human influence on climate (in green). the likelihood of experiencing the observed trends (shown as the black lines in figure 5) can then be compared in the two worlds (as represented by the red and green distributions). human influence is estimated to have more than doubled the likelihood of positive warming trends in every region considered except central north america.
Include gender analysis in all preparations of commitments ?
include gender analysis in all preparations of commitments and mechanisms to help meet commitments, addressing questions such as: what do climate policies mean for women and men? are there differences? and how can such differences be addressed to ensure gender and climate justice
What are the strengths and skills of women and men that we need to build on?
include gender analysis in all preparations of commitments and mechanisms to help meet commitments, addressing questions such as: what do climate policies mean for women and men? are there differences? and how can such differences be addressed to ensure gender and climate justice
Women's participation in the post-2012 process?
participation of women and gender experts in the international climate change has been minimal at most cops. however, in order to ensure gender mainstreaming in the post2012 discussions, it is important to draw upon the expertise of women and gender experts
ensure gender mainstreaming in all mitigation and adaptation policies, drawing on experiences with gender mainstreaming in environmental policy, e.g. regarding gender impacts assessment tools, affirmative action policies, etc. invest in research to obtain more comprehensive data on gender aspects of climate change, both relating to mitigation (e.g. analyse women's and men's energy use, transport use, other consumption patterns impacting climate), and adaptation (e.g. effects of climate change on women's and men's lives, work, health, etc, and their abilities and capacities to cope and adapt: in what ways women and men are vulnerable to climate change? what are the strengths and skills of women and men that we need to build on?) include gender analysis in all preparations of commitments and mechanisms to help meet commitments, addressing questions such as: what do climate policies mean for women and men? are there differences? and how can such differences be addressed to ensure gender and climate justice? established methods such as gender impact assessments, gender budgeting, and the like should be used. women's participation in the post-2012 process participation of women and gender experts in the international climate change has been minimal at most cops. however, in order to ensure gender mainstreaming in the post2012 discussions, it is important to draw upon the expertise of women and gender experts. therefore, governments should aim to ensure the involvement of women and gender experts when they prepare their contributions for the international process, and ensure women's participation at international meetings.
Tell us about the National Academy of Sciences?
copyright national academy of sciences. all rights reserved. x acknowledgments energy and environment, appointed by the report review committee, who were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered
Todd J. Explain in detail about the Sanford National Ocean Analysis?
responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution. the committee would like to thank the following individuals who offered direct input to the committee with meeting presentations and personal, phone, or email discussions, including: todd j. sanford, national oceanic and atmospheric administration and cires, kirsten zickfield, canadian centre for climate modelling and analysis, michael eby, university of victoria, jonathan patz, university of wisconsin, dan cayan, scripps institution of oceanography, joseph goffman, senate committee on environment and public works, dan reifsnyder
What about the Reto Nutti Institute of Atmospheric and Climate Science?
u.s. department of state, reto knutti, institute for atmospheric and climate science, jeffrey kiehl, ncar, leon clark, pnnl, eric steig, university of washington, nigel arnell, university of reading, phil mote, oregon climate change research institute and oregon climate services, samuel myers, harvard university, and andrew weaver, concordia university
copyright national academy of sciences. all rights reserved. x acknowledgments energy and environment, appointed by the report review committee, who were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution. the committee would like to thank the following individuals who offered direct input to the committee with meeting presentations and personal, phone, or email discussions, including: todd j. sanford, national oceanic and atmospheric administration and cires, kirsten zickfield, canadian centre for climate modelling and analysis, michael eby, university of victoria, jonathan patz, university of wisconsin, dan cayan, scripps institution of oceanography, joseph goffman, senate committee on environment and public works, dan reifsnyder, u.s. department of state, reto knutti, institute for atmospheric and climate science, jeffrey kiehl, ncar, leon clark, pnnl, eric steig, university of washington, nigel arnell, university of reading, phil mote, oregon climate change research institute and oregon climate services, samuel myers, harvard university, and andrew weaver, concordia university.
What happens when modeling comes to uncertainty?
when it comes to modeling uncertainty, most economists instinctively reach for the expected utility framework of von neuman and morgenstern (1944), which assumes a well-defined set of possible states of the world, some exogenously given probability distribution over these states, and preferences over uncertain choices that can be represented by expected utilities
What is the first challenge to indicate uncertainty in climate models?
the first challenge to representing uncertainty in climate models is that we do not have a good picture of all the possible states of the world. one very concrete example of this is the possible disruption of the thermohaline circulation in the atlantic ocean, potentially a serious consequence of climate change
What is the second challenge in indicating uncertainty in climate models?
a second challenge is that there is not a generally agreed-upon objective probability distribution over the possible consequences of climate change. our discussion of figure 1 demonstrates that this is a problem even for one of the best understood quantities in climate science: the climate sensitivity parameter. it is thus difficult to know how to construct the objective probability distribution that the von neumann-morgenstern framework requires
when it comes to modeling uncertainty, most economists instinctively reach for the expected utility framework of von neuman and morgenstern (1944), which assumes a well-defined set of possible states of the world, some exogenously given probability distribution over these states, and preferences over uncertain choices that can be represented by expected utilities. we will argue that there are several characteristics of the climate problem that may make it a poor match for the expected utility paradigm. the first challenge to representing uncertainty in climate models is that we do not have a good picture of all the possible states of the world. one very concrete example of this is the possible disruption of the thermohaline circulation in the atlantic ocean, potentially a serious consequence of climate change. although such a consequence is now believed to be unlikely, it was not even recognized as a possibility until the 1990s (broeker 1997), suggesting that even today there may be consequences of climate change that we have not considered. a second challenge is that there is not a generally agreed-upon objective probability distribution over the possible consequences of climate change. our discussion of figure 1 demonstrates that this is a problem even for one of the best understood quantities in climate science: the climate sensitivity parameter. it is thus difficult to know how to construct the objective probability distribution that the von neumann-morgenstern framework requires. given these
What is the estimated amount of people who contract dengue fever each year?
each year, an estimated 50 million people contract dengue fever
What is used instead of a vaccine?
as no effective vaccine and specific treatment exist, vector control currently represents the only resource to mitigate dengue outbreaks
How many countries has dengue fever spread to?
during the past century, the four serotypes (denv 1 denv 4) have spread to about a hundred countries
dengue viruses are the most important arthropod-borne viruses affecting humans. during the past century, the four serotypes (denv 1 denv 4) have spread to about a hundred countries in the tropical and subtropical world including asia, africa, the americas and the pacific. each year, an estimated 50 million people contract dengue fever with at least 500,000 cases of dengue haemorrhagic fever or dengue shock syndrome leading to 25,000 deaths the spatial distribution of this emerging infectious disease largely reflects the distribution of its primary urban mosquito vector, aedes aegypti as no effective vaccine and specific treatment exist, vector control currently represents the only resource to mitigate dengue outbreaks. epidemic dynamics of dengue, like those of other vector-borne diseases, are driven by complex interactions between hosts, vectors and viruses that are influenced by environmental and climatic factors. several determinants in dengue fever emergence have been identified including human population growth, accelerated urbanization, increased international transport, weakened public
How do the coefficients A and B vary?
the parameterization appears in the prognostic equation for the respective horizontal velocity components, u and v and requires two coefficients a and b in general these coefficients can vary in space and time
What is the stress tensor proportional to?
the stress tensor is proportional to horizontal shears and is zero in the case of solid body rotation
Does the horizontal viscosity depend on direction?
the horizontal viscosity is anisotropic, following large et al. [2001], as generalized and discretized by smith and mcwilliams [2003] for any orthogonal horizontal x y grid with cell dimensions d x d y 
the horizontal viscosity is anisotropic, following large et al. [2001], as generalized and discretized by smith and mcwilliams [2003] for any orthogonal horizontal x y grid with cell dimensions d x d y ). the parameterization appears in the prognostic equation for the respective horizontal velocity components, u and v and requires two coefficients a and b in general these coefficients can vary in space and time. the stress tensor is proportional to horizontal shears and is zero in the case of solid body rotation. in the special case of spatially uniform coefficients in cartesian coordinates the friction is given by
What is the trend in global emissions of greenhouse gases and climate change?
assessment report (wg i technical summary, solomon et al, 2007) and without significant changes int tpolicy, the trend in global emissions of greenhouse gases and associated climate change will continue
According to the article, what will be the consequences?
these changes will lead to wide ranging impacts and economic costs across different sectors and regions
What proportion of the population lives in urban areas?
around half of the world's population currently live in cities and the proportion is set to rise further in future years (un, 2006
assessment report (wg i technical summary, solomon et al, 2007) and without significant changes int tpolicy, the trend in global emissions of greenhouse gases and associated climate change will continue. these changes will lead to wide ranging impacts and economic costs across different sectors and regions. at the same time, there is an increasing recognition of the potential impacts of climate change in cities. around half of the world's population currently live in cities and the proportion is set to rise further in future years (un, 2006). cities are also the centre of economic and political activity, and there is a growing resonance in considering city-level issues as a means to progress climate policy discussions.
What shows the importance of adapting to climate risks to maintain economic growth and reduce poverty is clear.
from annual flooding to a lack of water during the dry season, from frequent coastal cyclones and storm surges to changing groundwater aquifer conditions, the importance of adapting to climate risks to maintain economic growth and reduce poverty is clear
What continues to play a critical role in minimizing climate change impacts?
substantial public investment in protective infrastructure (e.g. cyclone shelters, embankments) and early warning and preparedness systems has played and will continue to play a critical role in minimizing these impacts
What stand out as among the most important in the list of potential impacts from climate change?
in the long list of potential impacts from climate change, the risks to the agriculture sector stand out as among the most important
from annual flooding to a lack of water during the dry season, from frequent coastal cyclones and storm surges to changing groundwater aquifer conditions, the importance of adapting to climate risks to maintain economic growth and reduce poverty is clear. households have for a long time needed to adapt to these dynamic conditions to maintain their livelihoods. moreover, substantial public investment in protective infrastructure (e.g. cyclone shelters, embankments) and early warning and preparedness systems has played and will continue to play a critical role in minimizing these impacts. in the long list of potential impacts from climate change, the risks to the agriculture sector stand out as among the most important.
What does the UNFCCC estimate?
the potential costs of meeting the challenges to water supplies posed by climate change
Is the estimate expected to be over or under-estimated?
the headline global figure of $9-11 billion/year additional public investment requirements to cope with climate change is an under-estimate of the costs of adaptation
What else does the figure represent?
the figure also represents the cost of adapting to climate change, assuming no adaptation deficit
the unfccc estimates apply a broadly robust methodology to estimate the potential costs of meeting the challenges to water supplies posed by climate change. however, the application of the methodology - given the time available for the study - necessitated a few approximations (outlined above) which are likely to mean that the headline global figure of $9-11 billion/year additional public investment requirements to cope with climate change is an under-estimate of the costs of adaptation. the residual impacts not covered by adaptation are likely to be high, although again unquantified, largely because adaptation will be imperfect and lagged. the figure also represents the cost of adapting to climate change, assuming no adaptation deficit.
To whom is climate one of many factors that influence their decisions?
to individuals, resource managers, policy-makers, and business leaders, climate is just one of many factors that influence their smaller, daily and larger, episodic decisions
How can the questions mentioned on the text be explored?
such questions could be explored through historical case studies as well as scenarioand sensitivity analyses, recognizing that socio-economic conditions are hard to project and can change quite rapidly
How can a system's overall resilience be increased?
investigating the multiple influences that cause vulnerability would point to leverage points for intervention no matter what the future climate may be, thereby increasing a system's overall resilience
to individuals, resource managers, policy-makers, and business leaders, climate is just one of many factors that influence their smaller, daily and larger, episodic decisions. non-climatic factors can affect people's priorities as well as their vulnerabilities to additional climatic stressors (e.g., dalby, 2009; o'brien leichenko, 2000 ). thus it is important to understand this real-world context in which current or future climate stresses could fall. for example, under what circumstances does globalization increase or decrease adaptive capacity? what other non-climatic stressors matter? such questions could be explored through historical case studies as well as scenarioand sensitivity analyses, recognizing that socio-economic conditions are hard to project and can change quite rapidly. they could also be investigated in sensibly focused regions-such as a metropolitan area like los angeles or the northeast corridor-where multiple stressors constantly interact in a spatially and functionally coherent context. investigating the multiple influences that cause vulnerability would point to leverage points for intervention no matter what the future climate may be, thereby increasing a system's overall resilience.
What wide range of physical and social adaptations affect the population?
with climate change, a wide range of physical and social adaptations in the population may well affect noise issues in cities
What is the 'cafe society'?
for example, with warmer outdoor temperatures, the growth of the ' caf e society ' may increase activity at all times of year in the streets of cities, and sensible planning of open-air eating facilities in relation to residential areas is necessary as the warmer evenings may well pre-date the adaptation of populations to higher street noise levels
What other kind of pollution could come with the 'cafe society'?
so noise and pollution should be increasingly included as key concerns for urban designers and local councils alike. even fashionable buildings on sites with high noise and traffic pollution levels are problems
with climate change, a wide range of physical and social adaptations in the population may well affect noise issues in cities. for example, with warmer outdoor temperatures, the growth of the ' caf e society ' may increase activity at all times of year in the streets of cities, and sensible planning of open-air eating facilities in relation to residential areas is necessary as the warmer evenings may well pre-date the adaptation of populations to higher street noise levels. thought should also be given to the greater need to open windows in warmer weather and the need to ensure that the noise and pollution impacts of street life and traffic noise do not encourage a move towards the climatically unnecessary air conditioning of buildings. the increased need for traffic-free zones in open restaurant areas of a city may become a feature of future inner city planning strategies, to ensure that local office buildings can be naturally ventilated without excessive noise levels. so noise and pollution should be increasingly included as key concerns for urban designers and local councils alike. even fashionable buildings on sites with high noise and traffic pollution levels are problems, like the ps 13 million hammersmith ark building. it is nearly three decades old, very elegant, with low rents per square foot, but because of its noisy location on a traffic island, it has proved over those years a challenge to rent out.
Is programmed cell death faster or slower for leaf senescence?
the mechanism of programmed cell death is much slower for leaf senescence
What is a possible benefit for slower leaf senescence?
we hypothesize that a longer, i.e. slower, leaf senescence can allow a more thorough scouring of nutrients
How long does the resorption of N in P. tremula take?
the complete resorption of n in p. tremula requires two weeks
the effects of warming on nutrient proficiency will depend on whether leaf senescence is under strict photoperiodic control or is modulated by temperature. species under strict photoperiodic control will not have an altered onset of leaf senescence but would likely have a slower speed rate of leaf senescence. the complex process of leaf senescence involves a coordinated sequence of steps that requires a certain amount of time to progress. for example, the complete resorption of n in p. tremula requires two weeks (fracheboud et al. 2009). the mechanism of programmed cell death is much slower for leaf senescence than for other causes such as defense, indicating that time is required to complete the resorption of nutrients, (lim et al. 2003). we hypothesize that a longer, i.e. slower, leaf senescence can allow a more thorough scouring of nutrients, so the realized resorption can approach the potential resorption. a longer duration of senescence may account, for example, for the higher efficiency of n resorption in leaves of the upper crown of f. sylvatica in consonance with the slower senescence in the upper compared to the lower crown, and for the difference in efficiencies that was attributed to differences in temperatures (staaf stjernquist, 1986).
What are some examples of present climate changes modifying the marine ecosystem structure and function?
sea-surface warming, sea-ice melting and related freshening, changes in circulation and mixing regimes, and ocean acidification induced by the present climate changes are modifying marine ecosystem structure and function and have the potential to alter the cycling of carbon and nutrients in surface oceans
Does the changing climate have only indirect consequences on marine viruses?
changing climate has direct and indirect consequences on marine viruses, including cascading effects on biogeochemical cycles, food webs, and the metabolic balance of the ocean
What influences biogeochemical cycles, carbon sequestration capacity of the oceans and the gas exchange between the ocean surface and the atmosphere?
in turn, marine viruses influence directly and indirectly biogeochemical cycles, carbon sequestration capacity of the oceans and the gas exchange between the ocean surface and the atmosphere
sea-surface warming, sea-ice melting and related freshening, changes in circulation and mixing regimes, and ocean acidification induced by the present climate changes are modifying marine ecosystem structure and function and have the potential to alter the cycling of carbon and nutrients in surface oceans. changing climate has direct and indirect consequences on marine viruses, including cascading effects on biogeochemical cycles, food webs, and the metabolic balance of the ocean. we discuss here a range of case studies of climate change and the potential consequences on virus function, viral assemblages and virus-host interactions. in turn, marine viruses influence directly and indirectly biogeochemical cycles, carbon sequestration capacity of the oceans and the gas exchange between the ocean surface and the atmosphere. we cannot yet predict whether the viruses will exacerbate or attenuate the magnitude of climate changes on marine ecosystems, but we provide evidence that marine viruses interact actively with the present climate change and are a key biotic component that is able to influence the oceans' feedback on climate change. long-term and wide spatial-scale studies, and improved knowledge of host-virus dynamics in the world's oceans will permit the incorporation of the viral component into future ocean climate models and increase the accuracy of the predictions of the climate change impacts on the function of the oceans.
What does RICE2010 implement as an innovation over the previous version of RICE?
rice2010 implements sea-level rise (slr)-related damages as an innovation over the previous version of rice
What does RICE2010 model an additional term based on in additional to the quadratic damages from temperature?
rice2010 implements sea-level rise (slr)-related damages as an innovation over the previous version of rice. in addition to the quadratic damages from temperature, it models an additional term based on a simple slr module
rice2010 implements sea-level rise (slr)-related damages as an innovation over the previous version of rice. in addition to the quadratic damages from temperature, it models an additional term based on a simple slr module. for simplicity our version does not implement this exact specification. instead, we estimate new coefficients for a quadratic function of temperature to get similar quantitative effects. denoting by dnonsas the non-slr component and by dsthe slr component, the original specification consists of a damage function d such that dit dnons it ds it with dnons it b1 itt b2 it2 t ds it=  b1 is d ttth b2 is d ttth2 gi ,0, t - 1
What are spatially varied management experiments already in paces as a result of?
the multitude of competing and overlapping sovereign political actors and institutions
What has already been undertaken in different regions of the world(i.e forestry projects)?
different types of climate mitigation projects
Who calls for the active implementation of experimental treatments?
adaptive management purists
although the barriers to implementing adaptive climate management appear insurmountable, interestingly, current climate policy actually has already overcome many of the most difficult of barriers. spatially varied management "probes," or experiments, are already in place as a result of the multitude of competing and overlapping sovereign political actors and institutions. likewise, the global economy in combination with regional variability in climate already distributes costs and vulnerability across communities and places. for example, different types of climate mitigation projects have already been undertaken in different regions of the world (i.e. forestry projects in the tropics versus energy projects in china). in contrast to the active implementation of experimental treatments called for by adaptive management purists, these spatially varied experimental probes are not the result of thoughtful and intentional manipulation. instead, the experiments have been stumbled into quite by accident. still climate scientists and policy-makers ought to take advantage of the happenstance that has created the wide-ranging series of global experiments on climate policy by instituting an intentional, international effort aimed at learning from these experiments.
Is is  worthwhile to publish the results of the intercomparison study?
it certainly seems worthwhile to publish the results of the intercomparison study
do the co2 levels fluctuate in the studY?
ate of decrease of atmospheric co2 yield results that differ greatly from those reported in the present study
What is atmospheric abundence?
this normalized forcing might depend on the amount of gas x or other gases in the atmosphere
with respect to the publishability of this manuscript, restricted scope of the paper presents a quandary. it certainly seems worthwhile to publish the results of the intercomparison study, but it would seem essential that the authors strongly qualify their findings by noting that the design of the study effectively limited the range of uncertainty that was found and point out that other approaches to the determination of the rate of decrease of atmospheric co2 yield results that differ greatly from those reported in the present study. specific comments page 19805, eq (2) in the definition of agwp the authors choose to leave the quantity ax, which they denote as the radiative forcing per kg increase in atmospheric abundance of gas x, inside the time integral. in principle this is correct. this normalized forcing might depend on the amount of gas x or other gases in the atmosphere (through overlap of lines) on global mean temperature (through interaction of radiation with clouds) and many other variables that are dependent on secular time. in practice these dependences are not well known if known at all, and even if they were known it would be arbitrary or hard to sort them out and apportion them to the different forcing agents. hence ax is generally treated as a constant, as the authors do later on in the manuscript at page 19806, line 12. it would thus seem that the authors might just as well discuss this matter here and bring the ax outside the integral right away. agwp agwpx(th) rfx( t dt
Tell us about the natural and commercial limits of European plant species?
a b figure 3. natural and commercial range limits in two native european plant species: saponaria ocymoides a and asarum europaeum b ). on the left side of each panel, nurseries where the species was available are shown as green dots
What are the natural limits of Atlas Flori europe?
the natural range limits, determined from atlas florae europaeae (jalas and suominen 1972-1994) and hulten and fries (1986), are shown in red
What is the Northern Business Range?
a the northern commercial range limit of saponaria ocymoides (69.46degn) exceeds the natural northern range (47.50deg) by >2400km. b the northern commercial range limit of asarum europaeum (69.46degn) exceeds the natural northern range (55deg) by >1600km a b b
a b figure 3. natural and commercial range limits in two native european plant species: saponaria ocymoides a and asarum europaeum b ). on the left side of each panel, nurseries where the species was available are shown as green dots. the natural range limits, determined from atlas florae europaeae (jalas and suominen 1972-1994) and hulten and fries (1986), are shown in red. a the northern commercial range limit of saponaria ocymoides (69.46degn) exceeds the natural northern range (47.50deg) by >2400km. b the northern commercial range limit of asarum europaeum (69.46degn) exceeds the natural northern range (55deg) by >1600km a b b
Which is damaging UK productivity and how many percentage?
inefficient buildings and more than a quarter (26%) state that bad office stock is actually damaging uk productivity
why does The insurance industry charges a premium on homes built after 1971 ?
the insurance industry charges a premium on homes built after 1971 because they are more likely to fail than those built before that date
what does chapter 13 contain?
in chapter 13 we cover the impact of cheap energy on the built environment and explain why ' the party is over ' covering issues of growing energy scarcity and the failures of supply that are beginning to inform and to drive the design paradigms
the report also reveals that nearly three-quarters (72%) of company property directors believe that business is picking up the bill for badly designed, inefficient buildings and more than a quarter (26%) state that bad office stock is actually damaging uk productivity. what the chronic failure of the building regulations systems has meant is that many of the new buildings built after the new regulations were introduced perform even worse than those before them. to make the point further, the insurance industry charges a premium on homes built after 1971 because they are more likely to fail than those built before that date. so how did the building industry come to this pass? to start with, how did the idea of modern buildings arise? in this chapter we deal briefly with the history of the emergency of high-energy ' modern ' buildings, and the air conditioning machines with which they symbiotically co-evolved. the following chapter on ' tall buildings ' deals with the extraordinary condition that drives people to build the ' tallest building ' in a city, or the world, and the hubris behind it. in chapter 13 we cover the impact of cheap energy on the built environment and explain why ' the party is over ' covering issues of growing energy scarcity and the failures of supply that are beginning to inform and to drive the design paradigms. in chapter 15 the issues of the vested interests in the current construction more free ebooks http://fast-file.blogspot.com
Which research instrument used in this study?
the survey instrument used in this study was developed with input from semi-structured interviews with a cross-section of farmers in the study area and a panel of academic researchers, agricultural officials, agricultural policy organizations
How many surveys were returned?
a total 162 surveys were returned with sufficiently complete answers to be used in the study
What led to the choice of YOLO County for this study?
his county was chosen for its representative mix of grain, vegetable, orchard, and livestock systems used throughout california's central valley
the survey instrument used in this study was developed with input from semi-structured interviews with a cross-section of farmers in the study area and a panel of academic researchers, agricultural officials, agricultural policy organizations (i.e. local farm bureau), and agricultural extension advisors. in the winter and spring of 2011, the survey was distributed by mail to 572 farmers in yolo county, california using the tailored design method a total 162 surveys were returned with sufficiently complete answers to be used in the study (table s2). this amounted to a raw response rate of 28.3% as a proportion of the total surveys mailed out, and a final response rate of 33.2% as a proportion of the estimated number of surveys sent to eligible farmers excluding those that were returned undeliverable the online supporting information provide a comprehensive description of the interview and survey methods (information s1). this county was chosen for its representative mix of grain, vegetable, orchard, and livestock systems used throughout california's central valley (table s1). a detailed case study of the research site, which examines innovative local strategies for climate change adaptation and mitigation, is also available in the recent peer-reviewed literature
What are the hop spots identified?
the 'hot spots' have been identified only with respect to the natural boundaries in the form of sub-basins of the river systems
How does the adaptation issues are addressed?
the adaptation issues are addressed, it will be imperative to qualify these hot spots by geographic areas with respect to population and ecosystems they inhabit10
What are the creation of unified framework?
the creation of unified framework and its maintenance shall be a gigantic task which can be achieved only through major policy restructuring of the institutions at different levels of management
in the present study, the 'hot spots' have been identified only with respect to the natural boundaries in the form of sub-basins of the river systems. before the adaptation issues are addressed, it will be imperative to qualify these hot spots by geographic areas with respect to population and ecosystems they inhabit10. another gap which shall be required to be addressed is the institutional capacity building at various levels. the creation of unified framework and its maintenance shall be a gigantic task which can be achieved only through major policy restructuring of the institutions at different levels of management.
What makes the seed set become successful?
the seed-set success positively depended on the temperature of flowering season
Is the temperature always significant?
temperature during flowering season was not significant
what is the main uses of seed-set?
the seed-set success tended to be lower in the early-melt plots and higher in the late-melt plots although there were large variations among years within plots
variation in seed-set success variations in seed-set percentages of peucedanum multivittatum over five years (three years for plot e) are shown in figure 6. mean seed-set values throughout the plots and years was 30.8%. the seed-set success tended to be lower in the early-melt plots and higher in the late-melt plots although there were large variations among years within plots. in plot a, the seed-set percentage in a warm year (1997, when mean temperature during the flowering season was 19.4degc) was higher than that in other years (fig. 7). in plot c, the seed-set success positively depended on the temperature of flowering season. when daily mean air temperature was lower than 15oc, seed set was smaller than 25% in these plots. in plot d and e, however, seed set was large even under cool conditions (11-13oc) in which flowering usually occurred later than early august. only in 1997, plants growing in plot d showed relatively small seed set (23%, indicating as a gray square in fig. 7), because many flowers were damaged by frost in late august. results of the logistic regression indicated that flowering season significantly influenced the seed-set success (table 2). effect of temperature during flowering season was not significant but the interaction between flowering season and temperature was significant (table 2). this means that temperature effect on pollination success may vary as seasonal progress. when flowering occurred in early season, seed-set success was influenced by the temperature of flowering season, in which warmer conditions resulted in higher seed set. in contrast, when flowering occurred in late season, temperature had little effect on seed-set success if frost damage was absent.
What is considered to be a major driver of future fire regime changes?
climatic changes
What kind of effects might drivers generate of landscape changes in fuel structure?
non-linear
What is reviewed of these abrupt fire regime changes?
key cases
wildfires have played a determining role in distribution, composition and structure of many ecosystems worldwide and climatic changes are widely considered to be a major driver of future fire regime changes. however, forecasting future climatic change induced impacts on fire regimes will require a clearer understanding of other drivers of abrupt fire regime changes. here, we focus on evidence from different environmental and temporal settings of fire regimes changes that are not directly attributed to climatic changes. we review key cases of these abrupt fire regime changes at different spatial and temporal scales, including those directly driven (i) by fauna, (ii) by invasive plant species, and (iii) by socio-economic and policy changes. all these drivers might generate non-linear effects of landscape changes in fuel structure; that is, they generate fuel changes that can cross thresholds of landscape continuity, and thus drastically change fire activity. although climatic changes might contribute to some of these changes, there are also many instances that are not primarily linked to climatic shifts. understanding the mechanism driving fire regime changes should contribute to our ability to better assess future fire regimes. key words: fire regime changes; abrupt changes; land-use changes; fire-grazing; invasive-fire cycle; socio-economic changes.
Which are the two ways climate change is typically presented
ivation to do anything about it. despite evidence from the social sciences that the experiential processing system is the stronger motivator for action, most climate change communication remains geared toward the analytical processing system. personal or anecdotal accounts of negative climate change experiences, which could easily outweigh statistical evidence, are rarely put into play, despite evidence that even a stranger's past experiences can evoke strong feelings in people, making such communications memorable and therefore dominant in processing.\\x182
Is climate change an immediate challenge or a long term effect
traditional statistical presentations of climate change data rarely instill the sense that it is an immediate challenge as well as a future one; that there is a narrow window of opportunity within which effective action can avert potentially devastating future consequences
There is a _________________ of opportunity within which effective action can avert potentially devastating future consequences
that there is a narrow window of opportunity within which effective action can avert potentially devastating future consequences
traditional statistical presentations of climate change data rarely instill the sense that it is an immediate challenge as well as a future one; that there is a narrow window of opportunity within which effective action can avert potentially devastating future consequences. many audiences leave such analytically focused presentations with a higher awareness that climate change is happening, but without the matching higher motivation to do anything about it. despite evidence from the social sciences that the experiential processing system is the stronger motivator for action, most climate change communication remains geared toward the analytical processing system. personal or anecdotal accounts of negative climate change experiences, which could easily outweigh statistical evidence, are rarely put into play, despite evidence that even a stranger's past experiences can evoke strong feelings in people, making such communications memorable and therefore dominant in processing.\\x182
What are the measures to be adopted?
certainly in terms of quantity, and perhaps also in terms of costs, private autonomous measures will dominate the adaptation response as people adjust their buildings, change space-cooling and -heating preferences, reduce water use, alter holiday destinations or even relocate
Why adaptation costs is important?
a careful assessment of adaptation costs would ideally consider the net present value of costs over the entire lifetime of a project, including preparation costs, investment costs, operations and maintenance costs and decommissioning costs
What to be noted in developing countries?
another potential omission, not least in a developing country context, is institutional and administrative costs, including the costs of building planning capacity
the second bias concerns the focus on public adaptation over private adaptation. this is again primarily because public adaptations are easier to identify than are the plethora of autonomous adaptations individuals and firms are likely to undertake. however, certainly in terms of quantity, and perhaps also in terms of costs, private autonomous measures will dominate the adaptation response as people adjust their buildings, change space-cooling and -heating preferences, reduce water use, alter holiday destinations or even relocate. unfccc (2007) includes many measures that will ultimately be the responsibility of private actors, in particular in health, agriculture and to some extent infrastructure, but it is likely that this represents only the tip of the iceberg in terms of private adaptation. global cost estimates, including that of the unfccc, are primarily about planned adaptation. although costing is almost always ad hoc, the resulting bias is more difficult to ascertain. a careful assessment of adaptation costs would ideally consider the net present value of costs over the entire lifetime of a project, including preparation costs, investment costs, operations and maintenance costs and decommissioning costs. in reality, the focus is often on the initial capital expenditures (in the case of unfccc (2007), the focus is deliberately on investment costs). another potential omission, not least in a developing country context, is institutional and administrative costs, including the costs of building planning capacity. there is some speculation, but little analytical evidence, about the importance of higher-order costs and inter-linkages, for example the effect of a large-scale coastal defence programme on construction activity elsewhere or the interaction between adaptation in water and agriculture.7
How is intrinsic mortality often modeled?
intrinsic mortality is often modeled as an age-independent mortality routine (i.e., maximum-age dependent) that serves as a proxy for those causes of death that can happen at any time in the lifetime of a tree
What factors does it include?
factors as lightning strikes, falling trees and branches, animal browsing or girdling, local insect defoliation, and fungal infection
What is the most commonly used equation for intrinsic mortality?
the most commonly used equation for intrinsic mortality is: pm 1 - e
intrinsic mortality is often modeled as an age-independent mortality routine (i.e., maximum-age dependent) that serves as a proxy for those causes of death that can happen at any time in the lifetime of a tree. this includes such factors as lightning strikes, falling trees and branches, animal browsing or girdling, local insect defoliation, and fungal infection. the assumption is that chance plays a major role in this type of mortality because the mortality is usually random and localized (shugart, 1998). most forest gap models deal with this chance by designing routines that assume a constant probability of death throughout the lifetime of the tree, usually ending with 1% or 2% (depending on model parameterization) of all trees of a species surviving to their maximum known age. the most commonly used equation for intrinsic mortality is: pm 1 - e
is this true that dust aerosols and clouds are also a source of biases?
yes, it is true that dust aerosols and clouds are also a source of biases and we will definitely add that with the proper citation in the revised version
why did thank to Dr?
for the excellent comment
Whta did the Dr published?
dr. vazquez has a publication on pathfinder version 5.0 and find that relevant to this pape
thank you to dr. vazquez for the excellent comment. yes, it is true that dust aerosols and clouds are also a source of biases and we will definitely add that with the proper citation in the revised version. the impact of volcanic aerosols was emphasized because it has such a widespread effect. the statement about high resolution will be clarified in the revision and the suggested paper will be cited. in addition, it came to our attention that dr. vazquez has a publication on pathfinder version 5.0 and find that relevant to this paper. we will add that to the citations.
Which is considered a fire dependent species?
lodgepole pine is considered a fire dependent species (lotan et al 1985), and most firstgrowth lodgpepole pine stands are of fire origin
What would happen in the heat of crown fires?
during the heat of crown fires (when the majority of trees are killed), seeds are released from serotinous cones resulting in the reestablishment of virtually even-aged pine stands within a few years
Describe the average frequency of fires?
the average frequency of fires at a particular location varies throughout the range of lodgepole pine from less than 100 years to over 500 years (brown 1975
lodgepole pine is considered a fire dependent species (lotan et al 1985), and most firstgrowth lodgpepole pine stands are of fire origin. during the heat of crown fires (when the majority of trees are killed), seeds are released from serotinous cones resulting in the reestablishment of virtually even-aged pine stands within a few years. the average frequency of fires at a particular location varies throughout the range of lodgepole pine from less than 100 years to over 500 years (brown 1975). based on an analysis of forest inventory data, smith (1981) suggested that the natural fire-cycle in lodgepole pine forests in british columbia was about 60 years. in forests originating from stand-replacing disturbance processes such as wildfire, the rate of disturbance is the key determinant of forest age dynamics. where fires occur randomly in space at a more or less constant rate, and all stands have an equal probability of burning irrespective of age and location, forest age structure will reach a steady state approximated by the negative exponential distribution (van wagner 1978; li and barclay 2001) where the average stand age is approximately equal to the fire cycle length. before fire and timber management were applied in western north america, lodgepole pine forest age dynamics, and so their susceptibility to mountain pine beetle, would have been largely influenced by the forest fire regime, principally the fire cycle length, including the influence of burning by aboriginal peoples.
Explain relationship between elite polarization and mass response hinges?
if hetherington (2001), levendusky (2009, 2010), and others are correct, and the relationship between elite polarization and mass response hinges on the giving and taking of cues, then surely issue awareness and knowledge matter, but how? when it comes to global warming, the results have been mixed
On whom partisan polarization was more pronounced?
they argued that partisan polarization was "more pronounced among those individuals reporting greater understanding of global warming" (p. 33
Why partisan polarization occurs through the acquisition of information?
those who reported a good grasp of global warming were markedly less worried about its effects than those who knew comparatively little. it appears, then, that partisan polarization is not inherent in the issue itself but that it occurs through the acquisition of information
if hetherington (2001), levendusky (2009, 2010), and others are correct, and the relationship between elite polarization and mass response hinges on the giving and taking of cues, then surely issue awareness and knowledge matter, but how? when it comes to global warming, the results have been mixed. in 2000, krosnick and his colleagues found that party sorting was more likely to occur among those who said they knew little about global warming. eight years later, dunlap and mccright (2008) found the opposite to be the case. they argued that partisan polarization was "more pronounced among those individuals reporting greater understanding of global warming" (p. 33). in figure 4, i compare mean levels of concern for global warming among partisan groups, disaggregated by a self-reported measure of knowledge. democrats who said they understood the issue well were far more concerned than those who did not. for 106 american behavioral scientist 57(1) republicans--and to some extent, for independents as well--the reverse was true. those who reported a good grasp of global warming were markedly less worried about its effects than those who knew comparatively little. it appears, then, that partisan polarization is not inherent in the issue itself but that it occurs through the acquisition of information. as respondents become familiar with the partisan cues that are cognitively associated with global warming, they retreat into opposing camps. this pattern, which also has been observed by others scholars using multiple data sets, suggests that the relationship between issue awareness, understanding, and concern is far more daunting and complex than climate communicators would like to believe (hamilton, 2011; malka et al., 2009; mccright, 2011; mccright dunlap, 2011).
Once the reaction rates of interest are known, what must hapen?
their influence on the general mass balance of the constituent under analysis must be quantitatively evaluated
Reactor is the name given to tanks or generic volumes in which the what?
chemical or biological reactions occur
which can be either a tank or a reactor as a whole, or what?
or any volume element of them
once the reaction rates of interest are known, their influence on the general mass balance of the constituent under analysis must be quantitatively evaluated. this is because the concentration of a certain constituent in a reactor (or in any place inside it) is a function, not only of the biochemical reactions, but also of the transport mechanisms (input and output) of the constituent. reactor is the name given to tanks or generic volumes in which the chemical or biological reactions occur. the mass balance is a quantitative description of all the materials that enter, leave and accumulate in a system with defined physical boundaries. the mass balance is based on the law of conservation of mass, that is, mass is neither created nor destroyed. the basic mass balance expression should be derived in a chosen volume, which can be either a tank or a reactor as a whole, or any volume element of them. in the mass balance, there are terms for (tchobanoglous and schroeder, 1985):
Explain the Global Importance of Atmospheric Aerosols?
atmospheric aerosols are of great importance to global climate because of their scattering as well as absorbing properties and in turn significantly influence the earth ' s radiation budget ramanathan et al. 2001; haywood and boucher 2000; bellouin et al. 2005
Say Green Home Warming? Â 
in general, aerosols could offset the regional greenhouse warming by directly scattering the sunlight back to space and by indirectly enhancing cloud albedo, thereby cooling the climate. however, it is also known that aerosols (such as soot) heat the atmosphere because of their absorption of sunlight, which in turn enhances the greenhouse effect jacobson 2001
Explain about naturally occurring barometric mineral dust
naturally occurring aerosols such as windblown mineral dust are a major contributor to the aerosol loading in the troposphere and influence the seasonal variability of aerosol optical properties and radiative forcing tegen and lacis 1996]. over polluted regions, long - range transport of mineral dust mixed with anthropogenic species could induce significant changes in optical and
atmospheric aerosols are of great importance to global climate because of their scattering as well as absorbing properties and in turn significantly influence the earth ' s radiation budget ramanathan et al. 2001; haywood and boucher 2000; bellouin et al. 2005]. in general, aerosols could offset the regional greenhouse warming by directly scattering the sunlight back to space and by indirectly enhancing cloud albedo, thereby cooling the climate. however, it is also known that aerosols (such as soot) heat the atmosphere because of their absorption of sunlight, which in turn enhances the greenhouse effect jacobson 2001]. naturally occurring aerosols such as windblown mineral dust are a major contributor to the aerosol loading in the troposphere and influence the seasonal variability of aerosol optical properties and radiative forcing tegen and lacis 1996]. over polluted regions, long - range transport of mineral dust mixed with anthropogenic species could induce significant changes in optical and
Who Requires various climatic, soil, and design data to generate daily estimates of water movement through a soil column?
help3 requires various climatic, soil, and design data to generate daily estimates of water movement through a soil column
Where can you find the input parameters?
the required input parameters for the model are shown in table 1
What does LULC and GRAC stand for?
and use/land cover data digital land use and land cover (lulc) data for the grand river watershed were obtained from the grand river conservation authority (grca
help3 requires various climatic, soil, and design data to generate daily estimates of water movement through a soil column. the required input parameters for the model are shown in table 1 the specific data obtained for the grand river watershed are described in the following sections. land use/land cover data digital land use and land cover (lulc) data for the grand river watershed were obtained from the grand river conservation authority (grca). the mapping was based on 1999 satellite imagery from the landsat 7 thematic mapper. as shown in fig. 3 the raster lulc coverage is based on a 25-m grid with 15 unique land cover categories.
The research presented here that generated primary date provided what?
the research presented here generated primary data providing a people's perspective on loss and damage
Where was the research conducted?
research was conducted in districts in nine countries especially vulnerable to loss and damage due to climate variability and climate change (bangladesh, bhutan, burkina faso, ethiopia, the gambia, kenya, micronesia, mozambique and nepal
How did the national research teams gather quantitative and qualitative data?
national research teams in these countries gathered quantitative and qualitative data through household surveys (n 3,269) and more than a hundred focus group discussions and interviews with key informants about their personal experiences of climate change impacts and about their responses. researchers further compared local meteorological and other relevant data with local perceptions of changes in climatic stressors. table 1 provides an overview of the climate stressors and societal impacts on which each of the nine case studies focused
the central research question was addressed through several sub-questions, focusing on 1 local changes in weather variability and climate patterns 2 societal impacts of these climate stressors 3 household vulnerability 4 existing coping and adaptation measures 5 residual losses and damage, defined as impacts that could not be avoided through coping and adaptation. the research presented here generated primary data providing a people's perspective on loss and damage. research was conducted in districts in nine countries especially vulnerable to loss and damage due to climate variability and climate change (bangladesh, bhutan, burkina faso, ethiopia, the gambia, kenya, micronesia, mozambique and nepal). national research teams in these countries gathered quantitative and qualitative data through household surveys (n 3,269) and more than a hundred focus group discussions and interviews with key informants about their personal experiences of climate change impacts and about their responses. researchers further compared local meteorological and other relevant data with local perceptions of changes in climatic stressors. table 1 provides an overview of the climate stressors and societal impacts on which each of the nine case studies focused.
What was placed in the incubators that measured oxygen levels throughout the incubation period?
an oxygen monitor placed in the incubators demonstrated that oxygen levels remained normal throughout the incubation period
What were the eggs left in?
eggs were left in cotton and buried in vermiculite
females were placed in one of two incubators at 18 or 33degc, with a 12  h:12  h light:dark cycle, or left in the rearing room at 26degc. an oxygen monitor placed in the incubators demonstrated that oxygen levels remained normal throughout the incubation period. after 6  days, crickets were removed and the number of eggs laid was counted and females were re-weighed. a random subset of eggs (five eggs from each female) was set aside. these eggs were returned to their previous temperature regime to determine hatching success. eggs were left in cotton and buried in vermiculite. hatchlings were collected and counted every day for 50  days. eight eggs randomly chosen from eight females per temperature were tested for their total protein content using a bradford total protein assay (bradford, 1976). eggs were sonicated in distilled water and the supernatant was added to the bradford reagent. the change in absorbance at 595  nm was measured 10  min later and compared with values obtained using a protein standard (bovine albumen) run on the same day.
Where and when was the SCS-TC first administered?
the scs-tc was first administered in july/august 2002 by researchers at mississippi state university
What type of survey was the SCS-TC?
the scs-tc is an annual cross-sectional survey that contains items pertaining to normative beliefs, practices/policies, and knowledge regarding tobacco control across 7 social institutions
What other surveys did the SCS-TC include items from?
specifically, the scs-tc included items from the behavioral risk factor surveillance system,23the tobacco use supplement-current population survey,24and modified items from the california adult tobacco surveys.2
the results presented in this article are from data on a subset of the measures included in the scs-tc. the scs-tc was first administered in july/august 2002 by researchers at mississippi state university. the scs-tc is an annual cross-sectional survey that contains items pertaining to normative beliefs, practices/policies, and knowledge regarding tobacco control across 7 social institutions: 1) family and friendship groups; 2) education; 3) workplace; 4) government and political order; 5) health and medical care; 6) recreation, leisure, and sports; and 7) mass culture and communication. survey items were developed and selected on the basis of an extensive review of extant tobacco control surveys and then reviewed by a panel of tobacco control researchers. we developed many of the items included in the survey, whereas others were selected from existing measurement instruments with established validity. specifically, the scs-tc included items from the behavioral risk factor surveillance system,23the tobacco use supplement-current population survey,24and modified items from the california adult tobacco surveys.25
What method can be used to estimate the variance in this case?
in order to estimate the variance in this case we will use a re-sampling method
How to use the resampling method?
that allows us to calculate that estimation by extracting sub-samples and to calculate the same estimator on those sub-samples
How is the Jackknife method implemented here?
first, we assumed a simple random sample to calculate an approximation of the variance, and the value of ^ th has not yet been expressed as a combination of the estimators within the strata. in order to obtain the estimator of th that excludes an observation, we opt for one that reproduces the procedure of calculation of ^ th as a complex ratio estimator. when the observation j* in the stratum h* is excluded, the estimator needs to be calculated on the basis of new sample weights. they exclude the information provided by the business that is not taken into consideration
in order to estimate the variance in this case we will use a re-sampling method that allows us to calculate that estimation by extracting sub-samples and to calculate the same estimator on those sub-samples. we have implemented here the jackknife method. first, we assumed a simple random sample to calculate an approximation of the variance, and the value of ^ th has not yet been expressed as a combination of the estimators within the strata. in order to obtain the estimator of th that excludes an observation, we opt for one that reproduces the procedure of calculation of ^ th as a complex ratio estimator. when the observation j* in the stratum h* is excluded, the estimator needs to be calculated on the basis of new sample weights. they exclude the information provided by the business that is not taken into consideration. this means, the factor weight does not change with observations that do not belong to the same stratum (business sector) as the excluded
Which one is recognized  by ECV?given the reason?
glaciers and ice caps have been recognized as an ecv since they are clear indicators of climate change and important contributors to global sea level changes, regional water cycles, and local hazards
Which are the variables?
glacier length, area, volume, and mass are the key variables
How much percentage observe the sea level changes?
loss of glacier mass due to surface air temperature and precipitation changes contributes an estimated 30% to total observed sea level change (gardner et al. 2013), underscoring the need to understand and observe the physical interplay of atmospheric, ocean, and terrestrial ecvs
glaciers and ice caps. glaciers and ice caps have been recognized as an ecv since they are clear indicators of climate change and important contributors to global sea level changes, regional water cycles, and local hazards. changes in glacier length, area, volume, and mass are the key variables. records date back to the seventeenth century and transnational compilations of such data were initiated in the late nineteenth century (wgms 2008). loss of glacier mass due to surface air temperature and precipitation changes contributes an estimated 30% to total observed sea level change (gardner et al. 2013), underscoring the need to understand and observe the physical interplay of atmospheric, ocean, and terrestrial ecvs.
What does the Budyko framework help predict?
may help predict changes in water balance partitioning in response to climate warming
What contributed to the observed variability in water yield responses to climate warming?
both environmental factors (e.g summer precipitation, summer length, and water residence time) and ecological factors (forest type and age
What data is used with the Budyko framework?
meteorological and discharge data from gauged headwater catchments
this study indicates that the budyko framework, using meteorological and discharge data from gauged headwater catchments, may help predict changes in water balance partitioning in response to climate warming. expert knowledge of the individual catchments indicates that both environmental factors (e.g summer precipitation, summer length, and water residence time) and ecological factors (forest type and age) contributed to the observed variability in water yield responses to climate warming. further research into these factors with longer datasets that include a broader range of forest types and age, factors that appear to influence elasticity, would help extend the findings of this article to ungauged headwater catchments.
What is the primary aims of this study?
the primary aims of this study were to test the reliability of a teamwork climate scale in l&d and provide teamwork climate benchmarking data for l&d units and caregiver types
What is the secondary objective of the study?
secondary objectives were to examine differences in perceptions of teamwork by provider type and l&d unit
What are the distinguishing points between Climate and Culture?
methods climate vs culture: a clarification of terms organizational researchers view the distinction between climate and culture as the difference between taking a snapshot during one brief time period (measuring climate), versus measuring the underlying determinants of climate (culture).24whereby climate can be captured by survey instruments, culture is better understood through ethnographic and anthropologic studies of the artifacts,25,26values,27and assumptions26,28that make an organization distinct.29metaphorically, culture is a complex grid of interconnected highway systems, while climate is the traffic that maneuvers the streets. climate is easier to measure and influence than the deeper culture
the primary aims of this study were to test the reliability of a teamwork climate scale in l&d and provide teamwork climate benchmarking data for l&d units and caregiver types. secondary objectives were to examine differences in perceptions of teamwork by provider type and l&d unit. methods climate vs culture: a clarification of terms organizational researchers view the distinction between climate and culture as the difference between taking a snapshot during one brief time period (measuring climate), versus measuring the underlying determinants of climate (culture).24whereby climate can be captured by survey instruments, culture is better understood through ethnographic and anthropologic studies of the artifacts,25,26values,27and assumptions26,28that make an organization distinct.29metaphorically, culture is a complex grid of interconnected highway systems, while climate is the traffic that maneuvers the streets. climate is easier to measure and influence than the deeper culture. technically, the distinction between climate and culture comes down to this: if you measure it with surveys and intend to publish it, you are measuring climate that said, administrators, frontline caregivers, researchers and even funding agencies have taken to calling this area of inquiry in healthcare 'safety culture research.' hence, we will use safety culture to refer to the larger endeavor and save climate for discussing the results from the survey. design and study population the safety attitudes questionnaire (saq) is a psychometrically sound inventory of frontline caregiver assessments regarding the work environment and the context in which they deliver care.30,31
What is the criteria for entering data in the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) database
a disaster is entered into the cred database if at least one of the following criteria is fulfilled: 10 or more people reported killed, 100 or more people reported affected, a declaration of a state of emergency, and a call issued for international assistance
Where does the data used in the summary analysis of the numbers of people affected by environmentally-related disasters is given in Raleigh and Jordan (2010) come from?
a summary analysis of the numbers of people affected by environmentally-related disasters is given in raleigh and jordan (2010) based on data compiled by the centre for research on the epidemiology of disasters (cred, 2008
According to the above text, which type of Chronic environmental hazards affects the most people
chronic environmental hazards such as drought are not the most common, but they do affect the most people, with impacts on an average across all years of 10 per cent of a country's population (in low-income states, this increases to 13 per cent of a country's population
a summary analysis of the numbers of people affected by environmentally-related disasters is given in raleigh and jordan (2010) based on data compiled by the centre for research on the epidemiology of disasters (cred, 2008). a disaster is entered into the cred database if at least one of the following criteria is fulfilled: 10 or more people reported killed, 100 or more people reported affected, a declaration of a state of emergency, and a call issued for international assistance. an aggregated summary of these data is shown in table 2. chronic environmental hazards such as drought are not the most common, but they do affect the most people, with impacts on an average across all years of 10 per cent of a country's population (in low-income states, this increases to 13 per cent of a country's population). raleigh and jordan (2010) note that only in the case of drought is a significant proportion of a state affected. floods tend to be more localised (for obvious reasons), but may still affect millions of people. the total number of disaster events in each region since 1970 is particularly noteworthy; and since 2000, the average number of events per year is running at more than 380 (raleigh and jordan, 2010).
What can hinder the ability of species to cope with modified land use?
climate change can hinder the ability of species to cope with modified land use
What can reduce resilience to climate change?
land use change can reduce resilience to climate change
What can not be assesed?
meaning that the importance of interactions (versus additive effects) cannot be assessed
there are therefore a number of phenomena in which the combined effects of land use change and climate change have been shown to impact biodiversity. interspecific variation in responses to combined effects of land use change and climate change appears to be common, as it is with the direct main effects of these drivers.118,119for some species and communities, interacting effects have the potential for large negative impacts; land use change can reduce resilience to climate change and, conversely, climate change can hinder the ability of species to cope with modified land use. therefore, there is an immediate need to better understand these interactions.1,2in particular, many studies do not adequately control for the effects of one driver while assessing another, meaning that the importance of interactions (versus additive effects) cannot be assessed. to better investigate these effects, we below provide a review of possible interaction mechanisms to aid researchers in experiment and analysis design.
The notion that time is running out separates what from social challenges?
the notion that time is running out separates many environmental concerns from social challenges
Why is human-induced climate change unlike other environmental problems with discrete antagonists and protagonists?
unlike other environmental problems with discrete antagonists and protagonists, human-induced climate change results from individual and collective activities at multiple scales, as well as marketplace activities
According to (Hansen 2006), six years ago what was the estimate in years that we had to peak emissions in order to avert dangerous anthropogenic change?
six years back, some estimated that we had roughly 10 years to peak emissions in order to avert dangerous anthropogenic change (hansen 2006 
time is running out the notion that time is running out separates many environmental concerns from social challenges. in the latter case, much of what is considered appropriate policy is mediated by the political system. stakeholders with various interests interact and attempt to influence each others' policy preferences. the political system then responds, or fails to respond, with some kind of policy intervention. losing coalitions tend to regroup, build more support for their ideas, and then attempt once again to influence the policy agenda. for example, the failed 1993 effort to promote universal health care in the united states resurfaced under the obama administration, with different results. those wishing to address super wicked problems such as climate change, however, do not have the luxury of ''coming back'' to the political system for a retry, exacerbating the ''one shot'' problem noted by rittel and weber. the time dimension means the problem will, at some point, be too acute, have had too much impact, or be too late to stop or reverse. put another way, while the political system may mediate interest group interactions regarding climate change policy in similar ways as it does regarding universal health care, the natural environment has its own response that stakeholders and governments cannot wish away. indeed, the powerful image of ''compromise'' that shapes most public policy processes does not fit. human beings can, of course, control their behavior to alter their impacts, but they cannot control the response of the natural system once a decision is made. the natural environment is the final arbiter of whether policy responses are appropriate. climate change is arguably the most illustrative case of time running out. significant impacts will occur; with each passing year, they become more acute; and if we do not act soon, the risk of harm to human communities and ecosystems, as well as non-linear change and catastrophic events, increases. six years back, some estimated that we had roughly 10 years to peak emissions in order to avert dangerous anthropogenic change (hansen 2006 ). hence, and unlike health care reform in the united states, humanity may only have a small window in time to move from its carbon-intensive trajectory to avoid significant harm. those seeking to end the problem are also causing it since those individuals who participate in coalitions that advocate emissions abatement also cause the problem, contestation over climate change differs from, say, political contestation over health care, access to abortion services, or a military intervention. every concerned person trying to reduce climate change has contributed to climate change. everyday activities, including proportionally higher per capita emissions in wealthier countries, are major culprits. unlike other environmental problems with discrete antagonists and protagonists, human-induced climate change results from individual and collective activities at multiple scales, as well as marketplace activities. while individuals can choose to switch to non-fossil fuel-generated power, buy efficient vehicles or lower consumption of carbon-intensive goods, many of our daily activities will still result in greenhouse gas emissions. in the united states, one of the world's largest per capita emitters, for example, residential homes generate roughly 17 of total carbon dioxide emissions and passenger vehicles emit 20 (environmental protection agency 2007 pegg 2002 ). no central authority decision makers within public authorities do not control all the choices required to alleviate pressures on the climate. this problem adds to the general problem of cooperation
What is the resolution of the ATSRs?
atsrs have a full resolution of 1 km at nadir, sampled across a swath 500 km wide
How many orbits per day?
with 14 orbits per day, this swath width is suf fi cient to give a view of most of the globe over about 3 days
Does any part of the ocean get dark?
accounting for cloud cover, which obscures the majority of the ocean at any given instant when resolved at 1 km, a single day of atsr ssts gives a rather sparse coverage (figure 1
atsrs have a full resolution of 1 km at nadir, sampled across a swath 500 km wide. with 14 orbits per day, this swath width is suf fi cient to give a view of most of the globe over about 3 days. accounting for cloud cover, which obscures the majority of the ocean at any given instant when resolved at 1 km, a single day of atsr ssts gives a rather sparse coverage (figure 1). this is the main motive in the sst cci project for endeavouring to add avhrrs to the climate data record in a manner consistent with atsr ssts. although processing (cloud detection and retrieval) is done on full resolution imagery, the sst cci atsr product comprises ' level 3 uncollated ' (l3u, see table 1 for de fi nition; group for high resolution sea
How important is the concept of change?
from a methodological perspective, the concept of change is central to the issues of climate variability and land cover change impact on flooding and low flows
What are the main agents of change in the context of floods and low flows?
in the context of floods and low flows, agents of change include fire, salinization, agriculture (including animal activities), urbanization, forest conversion, climate, use of water resources, subsidence of the ground surface, infestation, pollution, socio-economic political processes, etc
In what ways can forest fires change soils?
for example, forest fires may change soils from hydrophilic to hydrophobic (fire-induced hydrophobicity) which may also affect soil structure
from a methodological perspective, the concept of change is central to the issues of climate variability and land cover change impact on flooding and low flows. the concept therefore needs to be scrutinized both in terms of the processes involved and in terms of the methods that are useful in analysing change. in the context of floods and low flows, agents of change include fire, salinization, agriculture (including animal activities), urbanization, forest conversion, climate, use of water resources, subsidence of the ground surface, infestation, pollution, socio-economic political processes, etc. abrupt changes in watershed response can occur as a result of land use change (e.g. through fire, agricultural practice, etc.) and can be particularly severe at small scales (e.g. housing development), but there are instances of tremendous large-scale changes. one example is the trend reversal in nitrate concentrations of the danube as a result of political changes in eastern europe in the 1990s. system behaviour in the context of change can be characterized by properties such as stability, resilience, reversibility or irreversibility of change, as well as hysteresis. for example, deforestation/forest fires may cause no immediate effect, but time-lagged changes may occur due to a memory effect of soil characteristics which can lead to hysteretic processes. a difficulty, however, with downward trend detection methods is the multiplicity of types of changes-changes in the mean, variances, extremes/outliers, trend changes, step changes, etc. the type of change may be closely related to the degree of non-linearity of the system as well as any feedback effects present in the system. from both, a theoretical and applied perspective, it would be of interest to ascertain the variables that are indicators of how the catchment will respond to changes. the controls may not always be obvious. for example, forest fires may change soils from hydrophilic to hydrophobic (fire-induced hydrophobicity) which may also affect soil structure.
What is 'top-down' management in the context of climate adaptation?
typically 'top-down' management is about mandating certain actions imposed by regulation so as to manage environmental and climatic variability
How could flexibility of fishers to participate in many different fisheries affect climate change sensitivities?
by contrast, allowing fishers the flexibility to participate in many different fisheries, while maintaining desired levels of fishing mortality for each species, could reduce the socio-economic sensitivities of climate change
Are mandated approaches adequate under rapid climate change?
under rapid climate change, with unexpected effects, mandated approaches may not be adequate to promote 11 11 effective adaptation, and may not respond quickly enough to negative shocks
climate adaptation can be both a 'top-down' and a 'bottom-up' process. typically 'top-down' management is about mandating certain actions imposed by regulation so as to manage environmental and climatic variability. for example, restrictions on what fishing gear can be used, when and where provide limits on the effects of fishing mortality, especially at sensitive periods such as spawning times. they work best when there is a firm understanding of causes and effects developed from research, the tacit knowledge of fishers and stakeholders, and trial and error. under rapid climate change, with unexpected effects, mandated approaches may not be adequate to promote 11 11 effective adaptation, and may not respond quickly enough to negative shocks. for example, mandated vessel licensing provisions that prevent fishers from participating in a variety of fisheries make it difficult for fishers to adjust to variations in fish populations. by contrast, allowing fishers the flexibility to participate in many different fisheries, while maintaining desired levels of fishing mortality for each species, could reduce the socio-economic sensitivities of climate change.
How can the incorporation of climate change adaptation into developmental plans be best formulated?
the task of incorporating climate change adaptation into development plans and activities can best be formulated as a risk management strategy
How are many donor agencies supporting adaptation?
many donor agencies, both bilateral and multilateral are now developing there own programmes and mechanisms for adaptation assistance
Is the creation of a unified and coherent regime for adaptation the responsibility of the World Bank?
this is not a responsibility of the world bank
the considerations raised in the previous section suggest some of the elements that should be included in a more coherent international regime for adaptation. as noted above the task of incorporating climate change adaptation into development plans and activities can best be formulated as a risk management strategy. such a strategy can be developed both at the national level (country assistance strategies) and in the project cycle. this approach can be greatly strengthened by considering together both current risks from climate variability and extremes as well as longer-term climate change. there is ample opportunity for this within current bank practice (see section 3). there is a growing number of possible ways in which adaptation might be supported. in addition to the new funds under the climate convention and the adaptation levy under the kyoto protocol, many donor agencies, both bilateral and multilateral are now developing there own programmes and mechanisms for adaptation assistance. a rather chaotic system appears to be growing up in which many diverse activities may be labeled as adaptation, and where there may be many funding mechanisms each with their own rules and priorities. such a pattern seems destined to lead to an ineffective use of resources at least, and could lead to a serious misallocation of resources. this situation calls for immediate steps towards the creation of a unified and coherent regime for adaptation. this is not a responsibility of the world bank, but it is clearly a place where the bank could play leadership role, and where the use of its good offices would be welcomed. in the absence of such an initiative there are few signs that the other key players in adaptation are likely to be able to avert the adverse consequences of the lack of a more unified and coherent regime for adaptation.
What is fundamental to this conceptualisation of vulnerability
fundamental to this conceptualisation of vulnerability is the distinction between three major components of vulnerability (exposure, sensitivity and resilience), the factors that contribute to each dimension of vulnerability and the linkages between them
What changes happened in Figure 1?
figure 1 has been adapted from this framework and relates the traditional foci of the climate change adaptation and disaster risk communities to the three components of vulnerability identified by turner et al. 2003 (for simplification we have renamed 'resilience' the 'ability to respond
What has to be done in order to reduce vulnerability to extreme natural phenomena successfully?
in order to reduce vulnerability to extreme natural phenomena successfully, there needs to be clear understanding of who is most vulnerable to the impacts and how the interactions between nature and society shape the underlying factors that contribute to vulnerability
environment institute (sei) and clark university in the us illustrates the complexity of, and interactions involved in, vulnerability analysis, drawing attention to how multiple socio-political and physical processes operating at different spatial and temporal scales produce vulnerability within the coupled human-environment system (turner et al., 2003 ). fundamental to this conceptualisation of vulnerability is the distinction between three major components of vulnerability (exposure, sensitivity and resilience), the factors that contribute to each dimension of vulnerability and the linkages between them. figure 1 has been adapted from this framework and relates the traditional foci of the climate change adaptation and disaster risk communities to the three components of vulnerability identified by turner et al. 2003 (for simplification we have renamed 'resilience' the 'ability to respond'). the above conceptual framework (figure 1 as well as the evolving debate within and between the different communities point up increasing recognition of the fact that, in order to reduce vulnerability to extreme natural phenomena successfully, there needs to be clear understanding of who is most vulnerable to the impacts and how the interactions between nature and society shape the underlying factors that contribute to vulnerability.
How is the good health care of poor communities connected to their water systems?
access to good primary health care is essential for populations vulnerable to climate change, also for water-borne diseases. people who are in good health are less likely to be vulnerable to water-borne diseases during extreme events. good primary health care will not only improve the resilience of local populations to water-related and sanitation-related diseases but also is the best early warning system for epidemics of water-borne diseases
What will the world's poorest nations need the most amid climate change?
climate change requires urgency to deliver water, sanitation, and drainage to the world's poor nations, which need fair fi nancial and regulatory mechanisms, allowing for delivery of aff ordable services whilst providing resources for construction, maintenance, and operation of water and sanitation systems
Who needs to work together in order to ensure that water is safe and available to all poor and other communities regardless of political standing?
public, private, and community sectors are important in providing specifi c systems and delivery services locally. river basins and water catchment areas that cross political boundaries require policies and regulations to provide fair access to water resources and to avoid confl ict. access to good primary health care is essential for populations vulnerable to climat
climate change requires urgency to deliver water, sanitation, and drainage to the world's poor nations, which need fair fi nancial and regulatory mechanisms, allowing for delivery of aff ordable services whilst providing resources for construction, maintenance, and operation of water and sanitation systems. public, private, and community sectors are important in providing specifi c systems and delivery services locally. river basins and water catchment areas that cross political boundaries require policies and regulations to provide fair access to water resources and to avoid confl ict. access to good primary health care is essential for populations vulnerable to climate change, also for water-borne diseases. people who are in good health are less likely to be vulnerable to water-borne diseases during extreme events. good primary health care will not only improve the resilience of local populations to water-related and sanitation-related diseases but also is the best early warning system for epidemics of water-borne diseases.
What is a key assumption of the Ricardian approach?
a key assumption of the ricardian approach is that land markets are functioning properly
What will land prices reflect?
land prices will, therefore, reflect the present discounted value of land rents into the infinite future deschenes and greenstone 2007 
What are large areas of Ethiopia plagued by?
large areas of ethiopia are plagued by ill-defined property rights and tenure insecurity, making the application of the ricardian model less feasible
it should be noted that a key assumption of the ricardian approach is that land markets are functioning properly. land prices will, therefore, reflect the present discounted value of land rents into the infinite future deschenes and greenstone 2007 ). land markets, however, may not be properly operating in areas of africa where land property rights are not perfectly assigned. for example, large areas of ethiopia are plagued by ill-defined property rights and tenure insecurity, making the application of the ricardian model less feasible. this can, however, be circumvented with the use of net revenues. 2 there is also a growing literature that analyze adaptation decisions at regional level (e.g., admassie et al. 2007 in developing countries.
What did the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change call for?
the united nations framework convention on climate change (1) has called for parties to consider ''stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations
What did the most recent international debate has center on?
much recent international debate has centered on the desirable level of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations at which to stabilize, or the level in keeping with avoiding dai
Are are the three approach categories used to produce stabilization profiles that reach a range of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) stabilization levels?
o'neill and oppenheimer (20), for example, produce stabilization profiles that reach a range of co2 equivalent (co2e) stabilization levels through three approach categories: slow change (sc), rapid change (rc), and overshoot scenario (os
the united nations framework convention on climate change (1) has called for parties to consider ''stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations,'' and much recent international debate has centered on the desirable level of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations at which to stabilize, or the level in keeping with avoiding dai. many research efforts have produced concentration stabilization profiles to drive models investigating the climate implications of various emissions pathways.o'neill and oppenheimer (20), for example, produce stabilization profiles that reach a range of co2 equivalent (co2e) stabilization levels through three approach categories: slow change (sc), rapid change (rc), and overshoot scenario (os). these profiles differ from many stabilization profiles in that they consider emissions of aerosols and all significant radiatively active gases beyond co2 and a wider range of approach pathways to final stabilization levels. although these profiles are only a subset of plausible profiles, they are representative of the middle of the range of published profiles, yet are different enough to allow us to clearly demonstrate the probabilistic frameworks we are offering in this analysis, especially for overshoot profiles that many analysts have suggested will be the most likely future path for greenhouse gas concentrations over the next centuries.
Most climate change impacts and adaption research help used what kind of scenarios
most climate change impacts and adaptation research undertaken in recent years (say, two ipcc assessment cycles) has used a common set of climate scenarios (the sres scenarios used by ipcc) nakicenovic, alcamo, davis, de vries, fenhann, gaffin, et al., 2000 
What did the most recent IPCC assesment call for?
in fact, the most recent ipcc assessment called for more exploration of the outlier trends, the uncomfortably ''fat
What kind of scenerarios are being used to explore extreme and abrupt climate change?
to avoid being completely blind-sided, more exploratory research on scenarios of extreme and abrupt climate change is required using many interactive, qualitative, and quantitative scenarios
most climate change impacts and adaptation research undertaken in recent years (say, two ipcc assessment cycles) has used a common set of climate scenarios (the sres scenarios used by ipcc) nakicenovic, alcamo, davis, de vries, fenhann, gaffin, et al., 2000 ). this practice has facilitated comparison and integration and as such is a laudable sign of progress over previous research. in light of recent research on tipping elements and abrupt shifts in climate (e.g., lenton, held, kriegler, hall, lucht, rahmstorf, et al., 2008 ), it would be advisable, however, to expand the set of climatic assumptions. in fact, the most recent ipcc assessment called for more exploration of the outlier trends, the uncomfortably ''fat'' (i.e., difficult to predict) tails of the distribution, or even scenarios of abrupt change, rather than solely focus on central tendencies. to avoid being completely blind-sided, more exploratory research on scenarios of extreme and abrupt climate change is required using many interactive, qualitative, and quantitative scenarios. such research promises to reveal otherwise unexplored, hidden vulnerabilities, allows opening up of ''taboos'' and seemingly untouchable assumptions, and enables creative thinking of adaptation options otherwise not considered.
In GFDL's CM2.6, what synergy caused the enhanced warming of the Northwest Atlantic Ocean and Shelf under a doubling of atmospheric CO2?
in gfdl's cm2.6, the synergy of global warming, the gulf stream northerly shift, the labrador current retreat, and the increased proportion of atlantic temperate slope water entering the shelf cause the enhanced warming of the northwest atlantic ocean and shelf under a doubling of atmospheric co2
What is the reason that a northern shift in the Gulf Stream in a coarse climate model cannot result in increased Slope Water associated with the Gulf Stream to enter the Shelf?
a northern shift in the gulf stream in a coarse climate model cannot result in increased slope water associated with the gulf stream (atlantic temperate slope water) to enter the shelf due to its lack of deep channels, which provide a throughway
What mainly drives confidence in the transient climate response of CM2.6 for the Northwest Atlantic?
confidence in the transient climate response of cm2.6 for the northwest atlantic is driven by the model's ability to resolve both its regional circulation (i.e., position of the gulf stream) and fine-scale bathymetry (i.e., northeast channel
in gfdl's cm2.6, the synergy of global warming, the gulf stream northerly shift, the labrador current retreat, and the increased proportion of atlantic temperate slope water entering the shelf cause the enhanced warming of the northwest atlantic ocean and shelf under a doubling of atmospheric co2. in cm2.1 and the majority of coarse climate models assessed by the ipcc, the gulf stream coastal separation from the united states in historical simulations is too far to the north of cape hatteras and essentially results in a gulf stream than flows directly over most of the u.s. northeast continental shelf. moreover, the detailed bathymetry (i.e., northeast channel) that allows for deeper slope water intrusions into the shelf cannot be resolved in a climate model with a coarse  100 km) ocean component. therefore, a northern shift in the gulf stream in a coarse climate model cannot result in increased slope water associated with the gulf stream (atlantic temperate slope water) to enter the shelf due to its lack of deep channels, which provide a throughway. moreover, the northwestern wall of the gulf stream in these coarse models is so close against the u.s. coastline north of cape hatteras that there is not much space allowed for a northwestern shift. as discussed in the previous section, the small change in cm2.5's amoc under an atmospheric co2 doubling winton et al ., 2014] is likely the reason why the warming in the northwest atlantic ocean and shelf is not as high as it is in cm2.6. moreover, cm2.6's ocean component is a  10 km horizontal resolution and appears to resolve northwest atlantic shelf regional circulation more accurately than cm2.5  25 km ocean). confidence in the transient climate response of cm2.6 for the northwest atlantic is driven by the model's ability to resolve both its regional circulation (i.e., position of the gulf stream) and fine-scale bathymetry (i.e., northeast channel). additional confidence derives from the skillful simulation of the ocean heat budget
What does the  model projections with a prescribed ECS of 3.5 degC indicate ?
the model projections with a prescribed ecs of 3.5 degc indicate that the magnitude of anthropogenic warming relative to pre-industrial conditions would range from approximately half (~2 degc) to nearly twice (~7.5 degc
What information can we gather about deglacial warming from the given text?
deglacial warming proceeded incrementally over nearly 8,000 years, however, whereas much of the projected warming will occur over the next few centuries, and thus at significantly faster rates (fig. 1e
Elaborate the current emission growth rate scenario as given in the paragraph?
current annual emission growth rates (~2.5% per year) are twice as large as in the 1990s (average of 1% per year), and they continue to track the high end of emission scenarios used for ipcc projections27,43. moreover, the current (1750-2013) cumulative human carbon footprint is about 580 +- 70 pg c
depending on the emission scenario, the model projections with a prescribed ecs of 3.5 degc indicate that the magnitude of anthropogenic warming relative to pre-industrial conditions would range from approximately half (~2 degc) to nearly twice (~7.5 degc) the warming that occurred during the transition from the end of the lgm to the start of the current interglacial interval (fig. 1c). deglacial warming proceeded incrementally over nearly 8,000 years, however, whereas much of the projected warming will occur over the next few centuries, and thus at significantly faster rates (fig. 1e). current annual emission growth rates (~2.5% per year) are twice as large as in the 1990s (average of 1% per year), and they continue to track the high end of emission scenarios used for ipcc projections27,43. moreover, the current (1750-2013) cumulative human carbon footprint is about 580 +- 70 pg c
Who was the Kingsnorth plant proposed by?
the ps 1 billion kingsnorth plant was proposed by the german-owned gas and electricity provider eon
What did Eon argue?
argues that the new generation of cleaner plant would replace the dirty older model
What did the green activists claim?
green campaigners who protested outside the site in august 2008 claimed that if john hutton, the uk business minister who has the final say on the station, gave permission for the plant he would be chronically undermining the government's ability to meet its legally binding emission reduction targets
in january 2008 medway council in kent gave permission for the building of the first new coalfired power station in britain for more than 30 years, the first of five proposed. the ps 1 billion kingsnorth plant was proposed by the german-owned gas and electricity provider eon, which argues that the new generation of cleaner plant would replace the dirty older model. ice claimed that medway council had made a sensible decision. green campaigners who protested outside the site in august 2008 claimed that if john hutton, the uk business minister who has the final say on the station, gave permission for the plant he would be chronically undermining the government's ability to meet its legally binding emission reduction targets. they also pointed out that if ps 1 billion were invested in co-funding with the public the installation of a million solar more free ebooks http://fast-file.blogspot.com
What may be tempting to conclude?
it may be tempting to conclude that an effective way to communicate climate change information is to place a greater emphasis on its possible consequences
What does such an approach evoke in audiences?
such an approach evokes strong reactions in audiences, including fear of worstcase climate change scenarios and even heightened interest in what can be done to avoid them
How can an emotional appeal be effective?
but while an emotional appeal may make people more interested in a presentation on climate change in the short run, it may backfire down the road, causing negative consequences that often prove quite difficult to reverse
it may be tempting to conclude that an effective way to communicate climate change information is to place a greater emphasis on its possible consequences. some go even further, accentuating the risks by declining to mention the uncertainties involved. such an approach evokes strong reactions in audiences, including fear of worstcase climate change scenarios and even heightened interest in what can be done to avoid them. but while an emotional appeal may make people more interested in a presentation on climate change in the short run, it may backfire down the road, causing negative consequences that often prove quite difficult to reverse.
When do chemical conversions in the earths atmosphere normally occur?
chemical conversions in the oxidizing earth ' s atmosphere normally occur only from lower to higher oxidation states, with the exception of photodissociation reactions of oxidized sulfur compounds
What is sulfur used for by living organisms?
sulfur is used by living organisms either as fuel or as oxidizing agent in their metabolisms and as a structural component in living cells
What are biochemical reactions largely resposible for?
biochemical reactions largely balance the atmospheric oxidation and close the global biogeochemical sulfur cycle
kremser et al. stratospheric aerosol 283 tropical stratosphere can also be used to derive mean diabatic ascent of the bdc vernier et al., 2009; fairlie et al., 2014]. in the polar regions, diabatic subsidence occurring within the relatively isolated winter vortex is re fl ected in the very low aerosol levels observed relative to the air outside the vortex boundary thomason and poole 1993]. 2.2. sulfur chemistry since sulfur can exist with oxidation states from  2 to +6 seinfeld and pandis 2006] it can form a wide variety of organic and inorganic sulfur compounds. the primary atmospheric sulfur species and conversion reactions that lead to the formation of the gaseous precursor of stratospheric sulfate aerosols, namely, sulfuric acid (h2so4), are shown in figure 3. chemical conversions in the oxidizing earth ' s atmosphere normally occur only from lower to higher oxidation states, with the exception of photodissociation reactions of oxidized sulfur compounds. therefore, any sulfur compounds that are released into the atmosphere from surface sources and not taken up by surface sinks will ultimately be converted to h2so4, which is typically condensed to aerosol in the presence of water vapor. in the troposphere, this sulfate aerosol is ef fi ciently removed by wet and dry deposition. it is important to note that the sulfur cycle cannot be closed by atmospheric processes alone. sulfur is used by living organisms either as fuel or as oxidizing agent in their metabolisms and as a structural component in living cells. furthermore, biochemical reactions largely balance the atmospheric oxidation and close the global biogeochemical sulfur cycle. without this, reduced sulfur compounds, i.e., sulfur compounds where sulfur has an oxidation state of  2, as opposed to oxidized compounds such as so2 or h2so4, would not be present in the atmosphere in substantial amounts that are observed, and little sulfur would reach the stratosphere, except during large volcanic eruptions. this biological control on the nonvolcanic sulfur cycling can lead to complex feedback mechanisms when changes in climate induce changes to ecosystems. in the atmosphere, most reduced sulfur compounds readily react with the hydroxyl radical (oh). consequently, their chemical lifetimes are short, i.e., on the order of a few days or less and, thus, much shorter than the time it typically takes to transport air into the stratosphere. many reactions are either much faster or much slower
How the Review evaluate the necessary scale and timing of action to reduce GHG emissions?
central to many critiques of the review3 is a fundamental misunderstanding of the role of formal, highly aggregated economic modelling in evaluating a policy issue that is characterised by a very long timeframe, profound ethical considerations, great uncertainty, market imperfections, limited policy instruments and a requirement for international collaboration
What role are playing the formal models?
formal models can and should play an important role in the systematic and transparent exploration of assumptions and value judgements, and how they affect the scale and structure of policy. but to base real-world policy on the minimisation of the present value of the costs of climate change and the costs of abating ghg emissions in a formal model - what mendelsohn [citation] equates with 'economic analysis' - is both misleading and dangerous
How helpful is the formal modeling?
formal modelling is helpful in this respect but necessarily omits a great deal of what is important and further risks building conclusions on strong assumptions about the modelling structures, which are often chosen for analytical convenience more than anything else (atkinson and stiglitz, 1980; deaton and stern, 1986
we begin in section two with a clear explanation of the three modes of assessment used by the review to evaluate the necessary scale and timing of action to reduce ghg emissions. central to many critiques of the review3 is a fundamental misunderstanding of the role of formal, highly aggregated economic modelling in evaluating a policy issue that is characterised by a very long timeframe, profound ethical considerations, great uncertainty, market imperfections, limited policy instruments and a requirement for international collaboration. formal models can and should play an important role in the systematic and transparent exploration of assumptions and value judgements, and how they affect the scale and structure of policy. but to base real-world policy on the minimisation of the present value of the costs of climate change and the costs of abating ghg emissions in a formal model - what mendelsohn [citation] equates with 'economic analysis' - is both misleading and dangerous. economists can and do make use of a much broader range of analysis in formulating policy recommendations. sound economic policy-making requires assembling all of the available evidence in a structured way. formal modelling is helpful in this respect but necessarily omits a great deal of what is important and further risks building conclusions on strong assumptions about the modelling structures, which are often chosen for analytical convenience more than anything else (atkinson and stiglitz, 1980; deaton and stern, 1986).
What are the formulas for maximum and minimum water flows?
thus, the maximum and minimum water flows can be given by the formulas: qmax qav k1 k2 1 8 qav (2.4) qmin qav k3 0 5 qav (2.5
What affects the performance of the project?
overor underestimated values affect directly the technical and economical performance of the sewage works design
What is taken into account when considering the hourly variations in the sewage flow?
when considering hourly variations of wastewater flow, it should be taken into consideration that the fluctuations are absorbed and reduced in amplitude along the sewerage system
thus, the maximum and minimum water flows can be given by the formulas: qmax qav k1 k2 1 8 qav (2.4) qmin qav k3 0 5 qav (2.5) if it is possible to carry out flow measurements, to establish the real flow variations, the actual data should be used in the design. the coefficients k1, k2 and k3 are generalised, thus probably not allowing the accurate reproduction of the flow variations in the locality under analysis. overor underestimated values affect directly the technical and economical performance of the sewage works design. when considering hourly variations of wastewater flow, it should be taken into consideration that the fluctuations are absorbed and reduced in amplitude along the sewerage system. it is easy to understand that the larger the network (or the population), the lower are the chances of peak flows to overlap simultaneously in the works entrance. thus the residence time in the sewerage system has a large influence on the absorption of the peak flows. based on this concept, some authors have developed formulas for correlating the coefficients of variation with population, or with average flow (table 2.10). as an illustration, the following table presents the calculated coefficients for different populations.
What followed the democratization and decentralization in Mali?
following democratization and decentralization in mali, the management of the casier pastoral in question and the dikes were handed over in 1998 to a customary organization called association boumani which is focused on conflict resolution
What does the Association Boumani consist of?
it consists of three representatives from each of the villages surrounding the casier pastoral
Why does this organization faced problems in terms of lack of authority in carrying through its recommendations?
as this organization does not have a formal or official status, it soon faced problems in terms of lack of authority in carrying through its recommendations
following democratization and decentralization in mali, the management of the casier pastoral in question and the dikes were handed over in 1998 to a customary organization called association boumani which is focused on conflict resolution. it consists of three representatives from each of the villages surrounding the casier pastoral. as this organization does not have a formal or official status, it soon faced problems in terms of lack of authority in carrying through its recommendations. it became easy for farmers to cultivate in the casier pastoral following this lack of governmental management, monitoring, and policing, moreover, when karbaye wanted to rehabilitate the dam, there was a lack of officials who could participate in the preparations and discussions in advance. judging from the timing of the rehabilitation of the dam (april 2001) and the eruption of violence (august 2001), it seems likely that the rehabilitation may have sparked the violent attack, though tension between the two parties had been latent for decades.12
What is the accuracy achieved by the system?
from 89% to 99
in this study, we explored deep learning as a methodology for detecting extreme weather patterns in climate data. we developed deep cnn architecture for classifying tropical cyclones, atmospheric rivers and weather fronts. the system achieves fairly high classification accuracy, range from 89% to 99%. to the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that deep cnn has been applied to tackle climate pattern recognition problems. this successful application could be a precursor for tackling a broad class of pattern detection problem in climate science. deep neural network learns high-level representations from data directly, therefore potentially avoiding traditional subjective thresholding based criteria of climate variables for event detection. results from this study will be used for quantifying climate extreme events trend in current day and future climate scenarios, as well as investigating the changes in dynamics and thermodynamics of extreme events in global warming contend. this information is critical for climate change adaptation, hazard risk prediction and climate change policy making.
Emissions of carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels have ushered in a new epoch where human activities will largely determine what?
emissions of carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels have ushered in a new epoch where human activities will largely determine the evolution of earth's climate
What is the greenhouse gas produced in the largest quantities, accounting for more than half of the current impact on Earth's climate?
carbon dioxide is the greenhouse gas produced in the largest quantities, accounting for more than half of the current impact on earth's climate
Society is beginning to make important choices regarding what?
society is beginning to make important choices regarding future greenhouse gas emissions
emissions of carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels have ushered in a new epoch where human activities will largely determine the evolution of earth's climate. because carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is long lived, it can effectively lock earth and future generations into a range of impacts, some of which could become very severe. therefore, emissions reductions choices made today matter in determining impacts experienced not just over the next few decades, but in the coming centuries and millennia. policy choices can be informed by recent advances in climate science that quantify the relationships between increases in carbon dioxide and global warming, related climate changes, and resulting impacts, such as changes in streamflow, wildfires, crop productivity, extreme hot summers, and sea level rise. since the beginning of the industrial revolution, concentrations of greenhouse gases from human activities have risen substantially. evidence now shows that the increases in these gases very likely (>90 percent chance) account for most of earth's warming over the past 50 years. carbon dioxide is the greenhouse gas produced in the largest quantities, accounting for more than half of the current impact on earth's climate. its atmospheric concentration has risen about 35 percent since 1750 and is now at about 390 ppmv, the highest level in at least 800,000 years. depending on emissions rates, carbon dioxide concentrations could double or nearly triple from today's level by the end of the century, greatly amplifying future human impacts on climate. society is beginning to make important choices regarding future greenhouse gas emissions. one way to inform these choices is to consider the projected climate changes and impacts that would occur if greenhouse gases in the atmosphere were stabilized at a particular concentration level. the information needed to understand such targets is multifaceted: how do emissions affect global atmospheric concentrations and in turn global warming and its impacts?
The characteristics of sludge vary according to what?
the characteristics of the sludge accumulated in the stabilisation ponds vary according to its retention time in the pond
How long does the sludge retain in the pond?
usually amounts from some to many years
The sludge taken from the primary lagoons usually has which characteristic?
the sludge removed from primary ponds usually presents high contents of total solids, frequently higher than 15
the characteristics of the sludge accumulated in the stabilisation ponds vary according to its retention time in the pond, which usually amounts from some to many years. in this period, the sludge undergoes thickening and anaerobic digestion which are reflected on the high contents of total solids (ts) and on the low volatile solids total solids ratio (vs/ts). the sludge removed from primary ponds usually presents high contents of total solids, frequently higher than 15%. because of thickening, the solids concentration varies along the sludge layer, with higher values in the lower parts. sludges from shallow polishing ponds accumulated over short time periods (one year or less) have average solids concentrations of approximately 4 to 6% (brito et al, 1999; von sperling et al, 2002b). the sludge from ponds operating for several years is usually well digested, with vs/ts ratios lower than 50%. in terms of nutrients (nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium), the data obtained from an anaerobic pond and from a primary facultative pond (gon,calves, 1999) suggest nutrient contents lower than those obtained from other wastewater treatment processes. the average values obtained were: tkn: 2.0% of the ts; p: 0.2% of the ts; k: 0.04% of the ts. with relation to heavy metals, the considerations made in chapter 2 concerning the dependence between these characteristics and the presence and type of industrial wastes are also valid here. regarding coliforms, the contents in the sludge range between 102and 104
What is the syndromes role in the winter?
role of acute coronary syndromes in seasonal variation
we have identified a significant winter peak in hf-related hospitalizations. these population-based findings are in accord with the results of the only other study to examine this topic (16), which found a similar seasonal variation in discharges from french public hospitals (accounting for approximately 70% of hospital capacity in that country) (16). when analyzing mortality, that study only examined death certification for hf, rather than case fatality specifically in patients hospitalized with hf. nevertheless, both analytical approaches confirmed an even more pronounced winter peak in deaths. physiologic mechanisms underlying seasonal variation. what causes this winter peak in hf morbidity and mortality? our findings are clearly in keeping with the seasonal variation seen in acute coronary syndromes and sudden deaths (1-4). consequently, they may share common mechanisms and aggravate the other's seasonal amplitude. for example, the hemodynamic stresses and neurohumoral activation that accompany a reduction in temperature may exacerbate hf, induce myocardial ischemia and precipitate arrhythmias (5-11). furthermore, both ischemia and arrhythmias could further increase the risk of hf decompensation. other mechanisms could also underly the seasonal variation in hf-related morbidity and mortality. respiratory infections, especially those related to influenza, are more frequent in winter and could precipitate hf (17). alcohol consumption also peaks in december in many countries (18). because alcohol depresses myocardial contractility and induces atrial fibrillation, it too could aggravate hf (18,19). consequently, we also examined secondary discharge codes to see whether they could offer insights into the role of any of these potential mechanisms. role of pulmonary infection in seasonal variation. interestingly, respiratory disorders (exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and pneumonia) also showed a winter peak in patients hospitalized with a primary discharge diagnosis (or a secondary coding) of hf. indeed, approximately one-fifth of the winter excess of hospitalizations could be accounted for by this seasonal increment in respiratory disease. this may even be an underestimate as secondary codings are less reliable than primary ones, and some patients discharged following hospitalization with an exacerbation of hf may not have had an appropriate secondary coding entered for respiratory disease. role of acute coronary syndromes in seasonal variation. in contrast, acute coronary syndromes apparently played a surprisingly small role in the winter excess of hf hospitalizations. however, other series from single centers have also suggested that myocardial ischemia is less frequently a
Whether a person is comfortable, uncomfortable or even in danger will depend on what?
the quality of the building they occupy or alternatively on their ability to afford to mechanically heat or cool that building
This chapter deals with the effects of what?
the effects of climate on the comfort of building occupants and how this might be altered by climate change
The occupants of any building will respond to the thermal environment at how many levels?
three
the conditions that cause ill-health and mortality in populations as a result of the warming climate and related extreme weather events are at one end of the spectrum of impacts of the design of buildings and cities on people dealt with in chapter 8. whilst it is especially important to avoid dangerous indoor conditions, it is also important to avoid discomfort. whether a person is comfortable, uncomfortable or even in danger will depend either on the quality of the building they occupy or alternatively on their ability to afford to mechanically heat or cool that building. in the latter case a local energy supply will also be needed. in a former age when there were few machines, and perhaps in a future age when few people on earth can afford to run machines, it is imperative that designers relearn the fundamental lessons of the relationship between humans, buildings and the climate. this chapter deals with the effects of climate on the comfort of building occupants and how this might be altered by climate change. the occupants of any building will respond to the thermal environment at three levels:
How much BOD does domestic sewage contain?
domestic sewage has a bod in the region of 300 mg/l
How much oxygen is consumed by 1 litre of sewage?
1 litre of sewage is associated with the consumption of approximately 300 mg of oxygen
for sewage, some practical aspects require some adaptations. sewage, having a large concentration of organic matter, consumes quickly (well before the five days) all the dissolved oxygen in the liquid medium. thus, it is necessary to make dilutions in order to decrease the concentration of the organic matter, such that the oxygen consumption at 5 days is numerically less than the oxygen available in the sample (the sample is lost if, at day 5, the do concentration is zero, because it will not be possible to know when the zero concentration was reached). also it is usually necessary to introduce a seed, containing microorganisms, to allow a fasterstartofthedecompositionprocess.tomeasureonlythecarbonaceousoxygen demand, an inhibitor for nitrification (nitrogenous oxygen demand, associated with the oxidation of ammonia to nitrate) can be added. domestic sewage has a bod in the region of 300 mg/l, or that is to say, 1 litre of sewage is associated with the consumption of approximately 300 mg of oxygen, in five days, in the process of the stabilisation of the carbonaceous organic matter. the main advantages of the bod test are related to the fact that the test allows:
Why do Ocean surface temperatures differ between the coupled models?
ocean surface temperatures differ between the coupled models due to either changes in surface boundary fluxes or through differences in oceanic heat transport from advection and subgrid-scale processes
Explain Fig. 3
in particular, fig. 3 shows the annual mean absorbed shortwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere for the atmospheric models am2 and am3 and the coupled climate models cm2.1 and cm3
Where would further details of radiative changes be found?
further details of these radiative changes are noted in donner et al. (2011
ocean surface temperatures differ between the coupled models due to either changes in surface boundary fluxes or through differences in oceanic heat transport from advection and subgrid-scale processes. for example, as discussed in donner et al. (2011), changes made to the cm3 atmosphere result in a complex pattern of changes in radiative fluxes relative to cm2.1. in particular, fig. 3 shows the annual mean absorbed shortwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere for the atmospheric models am2 and am3 and the coupled climate models cm2.1 and cm3. a dominant change between the models is the reduced heating bias in the southern ocean for am3 and cm3. we also note a slightly warmer north pacific in cm3. further details of these radiative changes are noted in donner et al. (2011). though details will be modified owing to scattering by aerosols and clouds, these changes in the top-of-the-atmosphere radiative fluxes reflect on the surface ocean fluxes.
What did we compute in this study?
in this study, we compute eolian mass accumulation rates (mars), or flux, in units of mass per unit area per year
How are Loess ages determined?
loess ages are determined by radiocarbon dating of materials within the loess or in paleosols bracketing it or by direct age determinations on the loess itself by thermoluminescence (tl), infrared-stimulated luminescence (irsl) or optically stimulated luminescence (osl) dating
What are we utilizing for the model?
for the model, we are utilizing a single slice that should be representative of a few thousand years close to the last glacial maximum
in this study, we compute eolian mass accumulation rates (mars), or flux, in units of mass per unit area per year. loess ages are determined by radiocarbon dating of materials within the loess or in paleosols bracketing it or by direct age determinations on the loess itself by thermoluminescence (tl), infrared-stimulated luminescence (irsl) or optically stimulated luminescence (osl) dating. where loess is not directly dated, it can be estimated to be of lastglacial age in some cases by stratigraphic position and correlation to the deep-sea oxygen isotope record. for this paper, we include terrestrial sediment records for the time period covering 25ka to 12ka before present. for the model, we are utilizing a single slice that should be representative of a few thousand years close to the last glacial maximum. therefore there is an inherent mismatch in the time periods between models and observations that should be kept in mind. loess mass accumulation rate (mar) in units of g/m2/yr can be computed as:
Where were the Fire-scar chronologies were reconstructed at?
fire-scar chronologies were reconstructed in forest stands throughout arizona and new mexico, and on the west slope of the sierra nevada (hereafter, these regions are referred to as the "southwest" and the "sierras," respectively
Through  what were many of these chronicles developed?
many of these chronologies were developed through cooperative studies with land management agencies in national forest and national park wilderness and protected areas
What did sample areas include?
 presence of living or dead fire-scarred trees was obviously necessary for reconstructing fire-scar based fire history, but sample areas included a broad range of abundance of fire-scarred trees
fire-scar chronologies were reconstructed in forest stands throughout arizona and new mexico, and on the west slope of the sierra nevada (hereafter, these regions are referred to as the "southwest" and the "sierras," respectively). many of these chronologies were developed through cooperative studies with land management agencies in national forest and national park wilderness and protected areas. presence of living or dead fire-scarred trees was obviously necessary for reconstructing fire-scar based fire history, but sample areas included a broad range of abundance of fire-scarred trees. concerns over impacts and aesthetics, and limited access sometimes required opportunistic sampling near roads or trails. study areas and stands to be sampled were often located in areas where prescribed fire
What is the cause of the greatest intermodel spread in the annual mean polar amplification?
the greatest intermodel spread in the annual mean polar amplification is due to horizontal heat transport and shortwave cloud feedback
What further work is still required before specific causes of recent Arctic temperature change can be confidently attributed?
further work is still required to unravel the complex nature of aerosol forcing, the associated potentially strong semidirect effects, and the considerable changes to poleward heat transport before specific causes of recent arctic temperature change can be confidently attributed
What did the absorbing aerosol experiment show?
although our absorbing aerosol experiment was not realistic, it shows that an inhomogeneous distribution of aerosols is not required to produce an inhomogeneous forcing or response, and that the response is strongly dependent on changes in heat transport and the associated amplification of feedbacks
however, lu and cai (2009a) find the heat storage term to be only a secondary cause of the seasonality of polar amplification, although they do not separate out the heat transport term from longwave clear-sky terms. the greatest intermodel spread in the annual mean polar amplification is due to horizontal heat transport and shortwave cloud feedback and therefore a better understanding of these from observations may help constrain models, although due to large internal variability in the polar regions, this may be difficult (stott and jones 2009). spatial patterns of local climate feedback for a single model forced with four different forcing mechanisms having quite different radiative forcing patterns are quite similar. the equilibrium temperature response to high-level absorbing aerosol shows considerable differences compared to other forcing mechanisms in the contribution from horizontal heat transport and water vapor plus lapse rate feedback as well as from the forcing itself, leading to enhanced polar amplification and a greater climate sensitivity parameter. observations of the global mean temperature change and meridional temperature gradient trends over the twentieth century cannot be explained by greenhouse gas, solar, and ozone forcing alone. shindell and faluvegi (2009) use the residual to estimate sulfate (reflecting aerosol) and black carbon (absorbing aerosol) forcings over this time period. these estimated forcings are qualitatively consistent with historical emissions. their calculations required the response per unit forcing for different forcing mechanisms in different regions, which they obtained from a single model. since the mid-1970s the difference between the arctic and sh extratropics temperature has been increasing. shindell and faluvegi (2009) suggest that ozone, black carbon, and the aerosol indirect effect have had a large impact on arctic amplification owing to their inhomogeneous distribution. although our absorbing aerosol experiment was not realistic, it shows that an inhomogeneous distribution of aerosols is not required to produce an inhomogeneous forcing or response, and that the response is strongly dependent on changes in heat transport and the associated amplification of feedbacks. further work is still required to unravel the complex nature of aerosol forcing, the associated potentially strong semidirect effects, and the considerable changes to poleward heat transport before specific causes of recent arctic temperature change can be confidently attributed. acknowledgments. we thank gaby ra"del (department of meteorology, university of reading, uk) for providing the instantaneous forcing data for the hadsm3 hcabs experiment and lawrence jackson (university of leeds, uk) for advice on the regression statistics. we also thank several anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments on this manuscript. we acknowledge the modelling groups, the program for climate model diagnosis and intercomparison (pcmdi) and the wcrp's working group on coupled modelling (wgcm) for their roles in making available the wcrp cmip3 multimodel dataset. support of this dataset is provided by the office of science, u.s. department of energy. this work was funded by nerc grant ''an observationally-based quantification of climate feedbacks'' ne/e016189/1. nicola stuber was supported by the eu framework 6 integrated project quantify.
What is the name of Vietnam's government program on flood management and what does it consist of?
the government in vietnam has a program known as "living with floods."88 this program may become more important as the impacts of climate change become more pronounced. the government, as part of this flood management strategy, is currently resettling people living in vulnerable zones along river banks in the an giang province
How are households selected for resettlement programs?
households are selected for resettlement based on a number of factors related to the environment, such as living in an area at risk of natural calamities (flooding, landslides) or river bank erosion
What are the drawbacks of the resettlement clusters?
although the "residential clusters" are usually located only 1-2 kilometers away from the former residence, moving people out of established social networks threatens their livelihoods and contributes to a sense of isolation. the resettlement clusters are not yet planned in a way that allows participation of potential residents
the government in vietnam has a program known as "living with floods."88 this program may become more important as the impacts of climate change become more pronounced. the government, as part of this flood management strategy, is currently resettling people living in vulnerable zones along river banks in the an giang province.89 almost 20,000 landless and poor households in this province are targeted for relocation by 2020. households are selected for resettlement based on a number of factors related to the environment, such as living in an area at risk of natural calamities (flooding, landslides) or river bank erosion. these resettlement programs allow families to take up a five year interest free loan to enable them to purchase a housing plot and basic house frame. households then often need a further loan to complete building the house.90 the clusters provide few infrastructure services like access to schools, health, or water and sewage treatment facilities.91 people planned for relocation are usually the landless who have nowhere else to move if their houses collapse and are often too poor to move to urban areas. for these people, social networks provide the link to livelihoods--most rely on day-to-day employment as laborers. although the "residential clusters" are usually located only 1-2 kilometers away from the former residence, moving people out of established social networks threatens their livelihoods and contributes to a sense of isolation. the resettlement clusters are not yet planned in a way that allows participation of potential residents. the vietnamese strategy of "living with floods" will combine resettlement, shifting livelihoods (i.e. from rice to fisherybased jobs), and some migration. in the future one out of every ten vietnamese may face displacement by sea level rise in the mekong delta.92
Explore the impact of climate change?
here we present results from a study exploring the impact of projected climate change on the australian wine industry. in the present study, impact models based upon existing viticultural and winegrape market data are used to estimate how projected regional temperature increases might affect the winegrape and wine industry throughout australia by 2030 and 2050. the effect on winegrape quality is determined for different premium winegrape varieties separately
Dispersed with high warming?
without adaptation, winegrape quality may be reduced at a national scale in australia from 7% with lower warming to 39% with higher future warming by the year 2030, and from 9% with lower warming to 76% with higher warming by the year 2050 (all uncertainties considered). key words: climate change * winegrape quality * winegrape varieties
various agricultural sectors are likely to be sensitive to projected climate change. winegrapes are particularly sensitive to climate change because of the intrinsic link between the climate and the characteristic and often unique quality of the resulting wine. here we present results from a study exploring the impact of projected climate change on the australian wine industry. in the present study, impact models based upon existing viticultural and winegrape market data are used to estimate how projected regional temperature increases might affect the winegrape and wine industry throughout australia by 2030 and 2050. the effect on winegrape quality is determined for different premium winegrape varieties separately. differential impacts were determined across a range of base-climates, climate change regimes and varietal crush profiles. this represents the first national study of the impact of climate change on winegrape quality that is regionally specific, and that integrates varietal differences in temperature sensitivity. the impact of warming was found to be negative overall, assuming no adaptation is implemented, for all australian winegrowing regions. it is found that the reduction to winegrape quality varied regionally, with greater quality reductions calculated for the inland regions. without adaptation, winegrape quality may be reduced at a national scale in australia from 7% with lower warming to 39% with higher future warming by the year 2030, and from 9% with lower warming to 76% with higher warming by the year 2050 (all uncertainties considered). key words: climate change * winegrape quality * winegrape varieties
What is the focus of the risk and resilience model?
the risk and resilience model focuses on delineating protective factors in a child ' s environment that foster adaptive adjustment and minimize negative outcomes in the presence of risk (rutter 2006 zimmerman and arunkumar 1994 
What is the meaning of resilience?
resilience can be thought of as the accumulation of developmental assets (e.g., positive relationships with teachers, academically challenging instruction) upon which children can draw to buffer the negative effects of adversity in their lives (brooks 2006 fraser et al. 1999 
What does the bio-ecological theory say with regards to school climate and developmental period of children?
similar to bio-ecological theory, the risk and resilience model is non-specific to any particular dimension of school climate or developmental period
the risk and resilience model focuses on delineating protective factors in a child ' s environment that foster adaptive adjustment and minimize negative outcomes in the presence of risk (rutter 2006 zimmerman and arunkumar 1994 ). school is one of the most salient developmental contexts to consider risk and protective factors (chang and le 2010 hawkins and catalano 1990 juvonen et al. 2006 ). risk refers to any influence that increases a child ' s probability of a negative outcome, such as growing up in poverty or experiencing discrimination. resilience can be thought of as the accumulation of developmental assets (e.g., positive relationships with teachers, academically challenging instruction) upon which children can draw to buffer the negative effects of adversity in their lives (brooks 2006 fraser et al. 1999 ). given the way that risk and protective factors interact and operate within various ecological settings, positive student development varies according to the unique combination of a student ' s personal attributes and their school environment (bowen et al. 2008 hopson and lee 2011 ). similar to bio-ecological theory, the risk and resilience model is non-specific to any particular dimension of school climate or developmental period.
What species have effects of recent climate change been detected in?
effects of recent climate change have already been detected in many species, and, in particular, in insects
What are the three major insect responses to climate change?
earlier flight periods, enhanced winter survival and acceleration of development rates are the major insect responses
In a number of cases, what did warming result in?
in a number of cases, warming results in removing or relocating the barriers that limit present species' ranges
effects of recent climate change have already been detected in many species, and, in particular, in insects. the present paper reviews the key impacts of global warming on insect development and dispersal. the effects of climate change appear to be much more complex than a simple linear response to an average increase in temperature. they can differ between seasons and bioclimatic regions. earlier flight periods, enhanced winter survival and acceleration of development rates are the major insect responses. differential response of insects and hosts to warming up might also lead to disruption of their phenological synchrony, but adaptive genetic processes are likely to quickly restore this synchrony. in a number of cases, warming results in removing or relocating the barriers that limit present species' ranges. it is also likely to facilitate the establishment and spread of invasive alien species. finally, knowledge gaps are identified and future research interests are suggested. key words: adaptation, alien species, climate warming, phenology, range distribution.
What is the objective of this paper?
the objective of this paper is to introduce how a mainstreaming approach can be operationalised, and to demonstrate how it can be used in relation to case studies in mozambique and tanzania
What is the aim of mainstreaming approach?
recognizing the importance of linking development and climate change, the so-called mainstreaming approach aims at evaluating climate change policies in the context of general development goals
Which approach will be operationalised and demonstrated in Mozambique and Tanzania?
the objective of this paper is to introduce how a mainstreaming approach can be operationalised, and to demonstrate how it can be used in relation to case studies in mozambique and tanzania
recognizing the importance of linking development and climate change, the so-called mainstreaming approach aims at evaluating climate change policies in the context of general development goals. the objective of this paper is to introduce how a mainstreaming approach can be operationalised, and to demonstrate how it can be used in relation to case studies in mozambique and tanzania. it is important to recognize that applying a mainstreaming approach opens a new set of issues on how to compare the use of scarce development funds for climate change adaptation with alternative uses. in many cases climate change adaptation can go hand in hand with other development activities in such a way that the activities jointly support the same goals. in other cases, adding an element of adaptation to development policies imposes significant costs that can imply delaying out other development investments from which a discussion about different priorities can emerge. in practice however, it can be expected that some part of the additional costs from including climate change adaptation can be paid by international funds or bilateral donors, in which case there is no national conflict between spending resources on development programmes and climate change adaptation. there are several implications of applying a mainstreaming approach to the evaluation of climate change adaptation policies:
what is a monsoon?
a wind system driven by land-ocean contrasts that changes in speed and direction seasonally, often accompanied by large precipitation changes
what is the ability that monsoons use?
teleconnection: the ability of the large-scale atmosphere to transmit its influence to other locations, usually through atmospheric planetary waves el ni ~no-southern oscillation (enso
What ocean atmospheres are effected?
in the tropical pacific and causing profound effects on global climate convection: vertical motion driven by buoyancy forces; moist convection is associated with precipitation and cumuliform clouds
monsoon: a wind system driven by land-ocean contrasts that changes in speed and direction seasonally, often accompanied by large precipitation changes teleconnection: the ability of the large-scale atmosphere to transmit its influence to other locations, usually through atmospheric planetary waves el ni ~no-southern oscillation (enso): a natural interannual variation in the climate system arising from ocean-atmosphere interactions in the tropical pacific and causing profound effects on global climate convection: vertical motion driven by buoyancy forces; moist convection is associated with precipitation and cumuliform clouds nh: northern hemisphere intertropical convergence zone (itcz): the dividing line (or a portion thereof) between the southeast and northeast trades, colocated with the ascending branch of the hadley cell
At the end of what century has anaerobic digestion been known?
the process of anaerobic digestion has been known by sanitary engineers since the end of the 19thcentury
What does anaerobic digestion stabilize in organic matter?
is characterised by the stabilisation of the organic matter in an environment free from molecular oxygen
What are anaerobic digesters constructed out of?
the anaerobic digesters are constructed of concrete or steel
the process of anaerobic digestion has been known by sanitary engineers since the end of the 19thcentury and is characterised by the stabilisation of the organic matter in an environment free from molecular oxygen. owing to its robustness and high efficiency, anaerobic digestion is present from simple domestic septic tanks acting as an individual residential solution, up to completely automated plants, serving large metropolitan regions. in a conventional activated sludge or trickling filter plant, the mixture between primary sludge and excess biological sludge is stabilised biologically under anaerobic conditions and converted into methane (ch4) and carbon dioxide (co2). the process is done in closed biological reactors known as anaerobic digesters. the digester is fed in a continuous or batch form and the sludge is maintained inside it for a certain detention time. the anaerobic digesters are constructed of concrete or steel. the raw sludge is mixed - and heated in temperate climate countries - with the gas produced, and the gas is stored in floating gasholders for processing or burning. the configuration of the digesters varies according to land availability, the need for maintaining a completely-mixed regime and the removal of grit and scum. figure 5.4 illustrates cylindrical and oval anaerobic digesters.
Climate change will influence what factors?
climate change will influence many ecological and socioeconomic components of national forests and interact with climate change effects on neighboring landscapes
What is taken into account in climate change?
it will be important to anticipate and plan for surprise and threshold effects associated with climate change that are difficult to predict yet certain to result from the interaction of climate change and other stressors
What is important to avoid appeals and litigation?
it will be increasingly important to include climate change considerations in planning to avoid appeals and litigation
climate change will influence many ecological and socioeconomic components of national forests and interact with climate change effects on neighboring landscapes. if climate change is not considered, factors that could inhibit sustainability of ecosystem services may be overlooked. it will be important to anticipate and plan for surprise and threshold effects associated with climate change that are difficult to predict yet certain to result from the interaction of climate change and other stressors (e.g., unprecedented large fires and insect attacks). in addition, it will be increasingly important to include climate change considerations in planning to avoid appeals and litigation. although historical conditions are a useful reference, as the local effects of climate change become apparent, an adaptive management approach can be used to test assumptions about ecological change and make adjustments in desired future
Who can reduce uncertainties for farmers?
ngos and cooperatives
What is the Challenge at a national and global scale?
at national and global scales, the challenge is how to create monitoring systems and flows of information that can serve the needs of the rural sector, including small farmers
What are micromet stations needed for?
more micromet stations are needed to collect data that are locally relevant and that can inform climate models and forecasts at a finer spatial resolution
ngos and cooperatives can reduce uncertainties for farmers, or augment them if they promote certain kinds of change but are unable to provide the necessary infrastructure. at national and global scales, the challenge is how to create monitoring systems and flows of information that can serve the needs of the rural sector, including small farmers. given the above constraints, particularly location and infrastructure limitations faced by small farmers, it is not surprising that dissemination, to them, of information relevant to climatic change has been difficult or meaningless from a practical perspective pfaff et al 1999 costa 2006 ). the effectiveness of disseminating climate information at different levels and to different groups is challenged by its scale and resolution, its perceived immediate relevance, differences in knowledge systems, differences in language and terminology and the legitimacy and credibility of institutions involved in the process. in this sense, there is a cultural divide between the ability of farmers to understand the lexicon and the symbols of global and regional climate forecasting and the ability of scientists to understand and value the knowledge and perceptions farmers have of their environment and climate agrawal 1995 ). this impasse can be broken in a variety of ways. first, more micromet stations are needed to collect data that are locally relevant and that can inform climate models and forecasts at a finer spatial resolution. second, agricultural extension organizations working with farm organizations need to pass this information to farmers in a timely fashion, such as through radio and television programmes. third, farmer organizations and communities should be encouraged to be participants in the production of scientific and reliable information, rather than be treated only as consumers of such information. it is unlikely that federal, state or local governments have the budget flexibility to put a dense network of micromet stations for an area as large as the amazon in the near future. yet, farmers need this kind of information now, as climate change is taking place at a pace that is outpacing the ability of governments to generate timely information. farmers, and schools in rural communities, could work together to implement micromet stations at low cost (following something akin to the globe approach), and engage students in monitoring climate changes in temperature and precipitation as part of their school work and learning about science.1
On what principles the equations were developed?
some equations are derived from first principles (e.g. equations of motion, and conservation of energy, mass and angular momentum), but many processes have to be parametrized in a simplified form
Define hierarchy or spectrum of models?
a hierarchy or spectrum of models from one-dimensional energy balance models through models of intermediate complexity to fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (aogcms) describing the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, land and possibly chemistry, the carbon and nutrient cycles and ice sheets has been developed claussen et al 2002 
climate models consist of a set of equations that are discretized on a grid and solved numerically on a large computer. some equations are derived from first principles (e.g. equations of motion, and conservation of energy, mass and angular momentum), but many processes have to be parametrized in a simplified form. for example, there is no known equation to describe the effect of a growing tree on the climate, yet trees modify the surface properties of the earth and thus affect the exchange of energy, water and carbon with the atmosphere on local to global scales. hence, the effect of the tree is parametrized in terms of environmental conditions (type of tree, water availability, light availability, temperature, nutrients, competing plants, etc.). for the parts of the model governed by fundamental equations (e.g. the equations of motion), increased computational capacity and thus finer resolution will improve the simulation. for empirical relationships where there is no fundamental underlying law (such as the effect of the tree on the land surface), the limiting factor is probably our understanding rather than the computational capacity. a variety of models have been developed to study different aspects of the climate system. there is no single best model, but rather a pool of models or model components that are combined to study specific questions. the decisions as to what parts of the system are modelled explicitly and what are fixed or externally prescribed is guided by the question of interest as well as by practical considerations such as computational capacity. the most complicated model is often not the easiest to interpret and may present computational challenges. therefore, a hierarchy or spectrum of models from one-dimensional energy balance models through models of intermediate complexity to fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (aogcms) describing the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, land and possibly chemistry, the carbon and nutrient cycles and ice sheets has been developed claussen et al 2002 ). if we accept the need for different models for different questions, then why do we also have multiple models of similar complexity to study the same question? while these models may be seen as incompatible in the sense that they involve conflicting assumptions, the more common view is that they all are credible approximations to the description of the climate system given our limited understanding, the lack of complete observations, and the simplifications that need to be made due to computational constraints parker 2006 ). while model development is in some
Are large floods more important for small tc?
conversely, for small tc, large floods are less important, and the peak is diminished
What happens when C is large?
when c is large, variability increases rapidly with decreasing mean runoff, and the peak in erosional efficiency is enhanced (figure 10d
What do the results conveyed in Figure 10 suggest?
the results shown in figure 10 suggest that the relationship between climate and erosion rate is complex, and changes depending on the ratio of channel steepness to the erosion threshold
q*c discharge variability becomes more important, and the peak is enhanced (figure 10c). conversely, for small tc, large floods are less important, and the peak is diminished (figure 10b). changing c varies the strength of the runoffvariability relationship and thus illustrates the uncertainty associated with the scatter in the data. when c is large, variability increases rapidly with decreasing mean runoff, and the peak in erosional efficiency is enhanced (figure 10d); when c is small, variability and mean runoff are but weakly related and thus the peak is subdued (figure 10e). naturally, figures 9a and 9b illustrate the model behavior when rb and k are independent. the results shown in figure 10 suggest that the relationship between climate and erosion rate is complex, and changes depending on the ratio of channel steepness to the erosion threshold. while molnar et al. [2006] suggested that change to drier, more variable conditions would rarely increase erosion rate, we show here that such a trend is possible over a wide range of conditions (solid lines in figure 10). furthermore, there is a range of parameter space where changing climate does not influence erosional efficiency; that is, the competing effects of decreased variability and increased runoff are in balance. we emphasize again that the relationship between mean runoff and discharge variability expressed by equation (16) only applies to a narrow band of potential climate scenarios (those analyzed by molnar et al. [2006] in the continental u.s.). even so, figures 9 and 10 highlight both the potential implications of co-variance between rb and k and the need for careful site selection when trying to quantify the relationship between climate and erosion rate in the field. these results suggest one plausible explanation for the diversity of published relationships summarized by riebe et al. [2001].
what exposes the figure Figure 1
carbon budget
what exposes the red line?
simulated annual biospheric co2 uptake (gtc/yr) for the constant climate simulation
what exposes the green line?
the climate change simulation
friedlingstein et al.: climate-carbon cycle feedback figure 1. carbon budget. a) atmospheric co2 scenario used as a forcing for the climate model (in ppmv) 12 ). b) simulated annual biospheric co2 uptake (gtc/yr) for the constant climate simulation (red line), the climate change simulation (green line) and the difference between the two simulations, showing the climate change impact on reduction biospheric carbon uptake (blue line). c) same as b), but for the ocean. d) annual rate of compatible anthropogenic co2 emissions calculated as the sum of atmospheric co2 growth rate and land plus ocean carbon uptakes (gtc/yr). lines colors follows the same convention as in b).
What is ensemble models?
one way to reduce the uncertainty stemming from the differing projections of gcms is to use several models in the analysis and then average the results--so-called ensemble models or consensus methods
Why Analysis of elusive species contain greater uncertainty?
analysis of elusive species or rare or endangered species would require the use of less systematic observations, which contain greater uncertainty
what combination does uncertainty represents?
uncertainty represents a combination of model and climate-projection uncertainties, which appear to be fairly similar in magnitude based on visual inspection of individual maps. overall, the model-related uncertainty appears
one way to reduce the uncertainty stemming from the differing projections of gcms is to use several models in the analysis and then average the results--so-called ensemble models or consensus methods (23, 43, 81). this approach presumes that the different models are internally sound and incorporate accurate data; combining information from several uncertain or inadequate models may obscure underlying uncertainties that are actually magnified in the averaging process. because of the limited availability of rcm projections, we did not employ a consensus approach (which often involves a dozen models or more) in the strict sense, but we did use two different rcm runs in association with two distributional algorithms to assess the variation in projections among models (figs. 1 and 4). at a fine scale of spatial resolution there were clear differences among models (with some consistent differences between gam and maxent results), although the ranges of overall changes for the species associated with a given habitat type were broadly consistent among models (table 1). to reduce the uncertainty associated with the data on which the species-distribution projections are based, we used records from multiyear point-count surveys. these have the advantage of greater reliability in recording occurrence (and absence), but the disadvantage that such surveys are sparse from some areas (particularly the desert areas in the southeast). we also restricted our attention to reasonably widespread, common, and easily detected species, for which observations at point-count locations within the species' range were relatively frequent. analysis of elusive species or rare or endangered species would require the use of less systematic observations, which contain greater uncertainty. what is really needed to assess overall uncertainty of sdm projections is an index that incorporates the various sources of uncertainty. as a first approximation, we have calculated the coefficient of variation of model projections for future bird species richness among the four modeling approaches for each pixel in our analysis (fig. 5). this analysis highlights areas of greater uncertainty, which do not necessarily coincide with areas of greatest change in species richness or community composition. in our example, this uncertainty represents a combination of model and climate-projection uncertainties, which appear to be fairly similar in magnitude based on visual inspection of individual maps. overall, the model-related uncertainty appears
What is the report by some communities?
some communities report that they are increasingly unable to address climatic changes in a context where there already exist multiple stressors (alcorn et al., 2003
What will happen If relationships between generations continue to degrade?
if relationships between generations continue to degrade 'the younger generations would have difficulty making sense of their observations because it is the elders that help frame knowledge, and lead the discourse through which observations are translated into new knowledge' (berkes, 2009: 153
What is the current situation of gender inequality?
there is also currently insufficient recognition of gender considerations in climate change discussions, despite evidence that ensuring greater gender equalities in climate change debates would contribute to enhanced resilience and adaptive capacity (denton, 2002; terry, 2009a; terry, 2009b; undp, 2009). the 2011 human development report (undp, 2011) affirms that the disadvantages of women, who have historically had limited access to resources, restricted rights and little voice in decision-making, make them extremely vulnerable to climate change. despite this, however, the gender equality dimension has thus far been little considered in the literature on climate change and indigenous knowledge (nelson and stathers, 2009
there is general agreement that multiple social and environmental stressors ('exposure-sensitivities') are likely to pose significant challenges for communities (adger, 2006). some communities report that they are increasingly unable to address climatic changes in a context where there already exist multiple stressors (alcorn et al., 2003). eroding modes of knowledge transfer and learning, increased alienation of youth from older generations, and the degradation of social networks are all contributing to decreasing resilience and increasing vulnerability of indigenous communities (ford et al., 2006). if relationships between generations continue to degrade 'the younger generations would have difficulty making sense of their observations because it is the elders that help frame knowledge, and lead the discourse through which observations are translated into new knowledge' (berkes, 2009: 153). today, changing livelihood strategies are also undermining certain aspects of resilience, resulting in emerging vulnerabilities in certain indigenous communities. in some inuit communities, for instance, the development of a 'waged economy has resulted in rising inequality, individualized behavior, and withdrawal from the traditional subsistence economy' (ford, smit and wandel, 2006: 155) and, thus, the erosion of many of the characteristics that had previously enhanced indigenous resilience. there is also currently insufficient recognition of gender considerations in climate change discussions, despite evidence that ensuring greater gender equalities in climate change debates would contribute to enhanced resilience and adaptive capacity (denton, 2002; terry, 2009a; terry, 2009b; undp, 2009). the 2011 human development report (undp, 2011) affirms that the disadvantages of women, who have historically had limited access to resources, restricted rights and little voice in decision-making, make them extremely vulnerable to climate change. despite this, however, the gender equality dimension has thus far been little considered in the literature on climate change and indigenous knowledge (nelson and stathers, 2009).
What is needed to understand what society needs to adapt to?
adaptation research is needed to understand what society needs to adapt to
What can be combined to provide an overall readiness index that can be analyzed to characterize the extent to which nations are ready for adaptation?
indicators can be combined to provide an overall readiness index that can be analyzed to characterize the extent to which nations are ready for adaptation
What focus on the process through which interventions are developed?
process-based approaches focus on the process through which interventions are developed
adaptation research is needed to understand what society needs to adapt to, identify options available to adapt, and understand how adaptation can be effectively promoted and implemented. while this architecture was proposed by smith et al. (2009) as a decision-support heuristic, it also provides a systematic means of identifying and evaluating the extent to which nations are ready for adaptation from which indicators can be developed to monitor progress over time. each component in the architecture will play an important role in facilitating adaptation in specific contexts, and while not all components need to be present for effective adaptation, the presence of only a small subset is unlikely to provide a strong basis for action. an example of indicators and sources of information which may be used are provided in table 2, with indicators combining binary variables (e.g., yes, no; present, absent), ordinal rankings (e.g., high, medium, low), and continuous measures (e.g., amount invested in adaptation research). indicators can be combined to provide an overall readiness index that can be analyzed to characterize the extent to which nations are ready for adaptation, examine how readiness differs between nations and sectors, profile components of readiness that nations are most and least prepared for, identify key barriers, and track progress over time. adaptation readiness approaches complement other methodologies for adaptation tracking by capturing the extent to which governance structures and processes needed to facilitate effective implementation of adaptation are in place. they do not depend on outcomes being identified and reported on and the challenges herein. while it is important to note that readiness may not necessarily translate into effective adaptation, absence of key components is unlikely to provide a strong basis for action (smith et al. 2009), and progress can therefore be used as a proxy of increasing likelihood of adaptation taking place. nevertheless, to our knowledge adaptation readiness has not been empirically applied for adaptation monitoring and evaluation, and the concept has not received widespread attention in the scholarship. notably, readiness indicators have not been validated; while expert knowledge, experience, and theory suggest these processes are important for adaptation readiness, we know little about whether and how such determinants actually drive adaptation action and success on the ground. thus, the potential challenges of using diverse data sources to extract information on readiness remain unknown, and the ability to create systematic, rigorous indices are untested, emphasizing the importance of pilot application. process-based approaches process-based approaches focus on the process through which interventions are developed and implemented in pursuance of a desired outcome or objective. these have emerged in the general policy evaluation scholarship in response to concerns over the ability of outcome evaluation techniques to fully capture dimensions of success, and importance of capturing the process of learning and decision making not easily discernible in output indicators. in an adaptation context, interest in process approaches reflects the temporal disconnect between the timescale over which adaptation effectiveness is often manifest and the practical need to conduct evaluation. theoretical work has identified general process characteristics
What does the impact of the particles depend on?
the impact of sulfate particles on the radiative forcing of climate depends strongly on their water content. the hysteresis effect of sulfate phase transitions complicates the treatment of water content in models
the impact of sulfate particles on the radiative forcing of climate depends strongly on their water content. the hysteresis effect of sulfate phase transitions complicates the treatment of water content in models. we explored this issue using a column model of sulfate direct climate forcing to investigate the relative influences of the differing key parameters of solid compared to aqueous particles, such as extinction coefficients, backscattered fractions, and growth factors. we then used a global 3-d chemical transport model for the sulfate-ammonium system to examine systematically the dependence of sulfate direct climate forcing on different approaches for treating the hysteresis effect. in our base case of the ctm simulation with full consideration of the hysteresis loop and natural and anthropogenic emissions, we find that solid particles contribute 34% of the sulfate burden, 20% of the aerosol optical thickness, and 34% of the full-sky radiative effect, as global and annual averages, with the balance in all cases from aqueous particles. the direct radiative effect of full-sky compared to clear-sky conditions is 55% for solid particles and 35% for aqueous particles. the different ratios reflect the relative correlations of solid and aqueous particles with clouds. for the anthropogenic component, solid particles contribute 41% of the sulfate burden, 26% of the optical thickness, and 37% of the full-sky sulfate direct climate forcing, as global annual averages.
Requirement of swat model data?
the data on terrain, land use, soil and weather for assessment of water yield at desired locations of a drainage basin
Name of the river basins involved in this data?
barring brahmaputra and indus rivers
What are the hydrological times for the present ( represent the period ) and the future?
the hydrological time series for the present/control (representing the period 1981-2000) and the future/ghg (representing the period 2041-2060
the swat model requires the data on terrain, land use, soil and weather for assessment of water yield at desired locations of a drainage basin. these data (at 1 250,000 scale) for all the river basins of the country (barring brahmaputra and indus rivers) have been used to generate the hydrological time series for the present/control (representing the period 1981-2000) and the future/ghg (representing the period 2041-2060) simulated weather data. the selection of scale for spatial data is based on the tradeoff between the availability of the required terrain data (in the form of contours data on the topographic maps) and the processing effort required for its preprocessing using the gis interface. the following sections provide brief description of data elements used and preprocessing performed on them.
Which year Sachs was appointed by Secretary General?
in january 2002, sachs was appointed by secretary general kofi annan as his special advisor on the millennium development goals. sachs is the recipient of many awards and honors. he has published more than two hundred scholarly articles, and has authored or edited many books. sachs received his b.a., summa cum laude, from harvard college in 1976, and his m.a. and ph.d. from harvard university in 1978 and 1980 respectively
Whose is the Director-General of the Tata Energy Research Institute (TERI)
dr. r.k. pachauri dr. r.k. pachauri is director-general of the tata energy research institute (teri) and chairman of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. teri provides professional support in energy, environment, forestry, biotechnology and natural resources conservation
Describe  Dr. R.K. Pachauri
he serves on numerous boards and committees both on the national and international level, among them the world resources institute council, international solar energy society, world energy council, and the international association for energy economics. he has served in various committees in the government of india, where his expertise in climate change and the environment has proved to be a valuable resource. pachauri obtained an ms in industrial engineering, a ph.d. in industrial engineering and a ph.d. in economics from the north carolina state university. prof. jeffrey sachs prof. jeffrey sachs is the director of the earth institute and professor of sustainable development at columbia university and a research associate of the national bureau of economic research. prior to this, he served as director of the center for international development (cid), harvard institute for international development (hiid), and the galen l. stone professor of international trade at harvard university
dr. r.k. pachauri dr. r.k. pachauri is director-general of the tata energy research institute (teri) and chairman of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. teri provides professional support in energy, environment, forestry, biotechnology and natural resources conservation. he serves on numerous boards and committees both on the national and international level, among them the world resources institute council, international solar energy society, world energy council, and the international association for energy economics. he has served in various committees in the government of india, where his expertise in climate change and the environment has proved to be a valuable resource. pachauri obtained an ms in industrial engineering, a ph.d. in industrial engineering and a ph.d. in economics from the north carolina state university. prof. jeffrey sachs prof. jeffrey sachs is the director of the earth institute and professor of sustainable development at columbia university and a research associate of the national bureau of economic research. prior to this, he served as director of the center for international development (cid), harvard institute for international development (hiid), and the galen l. stone professor of international trade at harvard university. in january 2002, sachs was appointed by secretary general kofi annan as his special advisor on the millennium development goals. sachs is the recipient of many awards and honors. he has published more than two hundred scholarly articles, and has authored or edited many books. sachs received his b.a., summa cum laude, from harvard college in 1976, and his m.a. and ph.d. from harvard university in 1978 and 1980 respectively.
What is section 3 of the discussion?
considers some of the water mass biases seen in the ocean interior, with the dominant bias arising from the heat in cm3 associated with initialization from the warmer spinup simulation
What is section 4 of the discussion?
finishes the main text with discussion and conclusions. details of the ocean and sea ice model components are provided in the appendix
section 2 begins the paper with a discussion of salient properties of the ocean surface, including sea surface temperature, salinity, sea ice, and sea level. section 3 then considers some of the water mass biases seen in the ocean interior, with the dominant bias arising from the heat in cm3 associated with initialization from the warmer spinup simulation. we then present certain features of the volume transport for both the global and atlantic overturning circulation, as well as the horizontal transport through selected straits and throughflows. section 4 finishes the main text with discussion and conclusions. details of the ocean and sea ice model components are provided in the appendix.
What were the researchers' conclusions?
in their summary of research as part of the canada country study, saporta et al.(4)concluded that climate change would have a range of impacts on canadian forests
What could climate change do to the fauna?
as temperature increases, species are expected to migrate northward and to higher altitudes. species located near the southern edges of their current range and those with poor dispersal mechanisms would be the most threatened by these migrations, and local extinctions are possible
How can technology help?
new technologies, of new tree species and relocation of forestry operations are potential adaptation options
in their summary of research as part of the canada country study, saporta et al.(4)concluded that climate change would have a range of impacts on canadian forests. they summarized that higher temperatures would generally improve growth rates, while an increase in the frequency and severity of moisture stress and forest disturbances would create problems in some areas. elevated atmospheric co2 concentrations may also affect forests by improving the efficiency of water use by some plants, which could lead to increases in forest productivity. the actual nature and magnitude of the impacts will vary, depending on such factors as forest type, location and species characteristics. for example, forests in continental areas are expected to experience increased drought stress, whereas increased wind and storm damage are likely in coastal regions. the rate and nature of projected climatic changes will be important, especially with respect to shifts in species distributions. as temperature increases, species are expected to migrate northward and to higher altitudes. species located near the southern edges of their current range and those with poor dispersal mechanisms would be the most threatened by these migrations, and local extinctions are possible. the forestry industry would need to adapt its operations to deal with the changing conditions. new technologies, of new tree species and relocation of forestry operations are potential adaptation options. the rate, magnitude and location of climate change would greatly influence the success of these adaptations.
What are the assessments of the dynamics of policy convergence?
drawing on theories of policy and technological change, we expand our assessment of the dynamics of policy convergence as follows. first, we introduce a number of theories of policy change, concentrating our analysis on those that try to conceptualise the messiness of change, and those that pay attention to discourse. second, we explore in detail how energy and climate change policies in the uk have converged in the period 1990 to 2007. the process of convergence has not been marked by conflict: indeed, despite the radical nature of some developments (for example, agreement on a 60% cut in carbon emissions), it has been surprisingly consensual. this calls into questions the assumption that rival storylines drive policy change through conflict (hajer, 1995; szarka, 2004). third, we identify four important storylines which we suggest have been influential in driving the convergent policy process, and make two key observations which raise questions about innovation in situations of policy convergence: first, that these storylines do not have distinct networks of actors - or discourse coalitions - associated with them, and, second, that the storylines do not appear to be in conflict, but happily co-exist. these dynamics - convergence, radical but consensual change, and storylines without associated coalitions - suggest that we need to rethink crucial aspects of policy analysis. to this end, in the fourth section of the paper we introduce ideas from science and technology studies about socio-technical regime transitions
How climate change is interpreted?
we argue that the low level of conflict between our storylines stems in part from all four of them having been shaped by the incumbent energy regime. in other words, climate change has been 4 4 framed as a problem that can be solved by existing energy technologies and practices, for example nuclear power and energy efficiency. it is only when climate change discourse is implemented that underlying tensions in storylines emerge
Describe Socio-technical regime theory.
socio-technical regime theory is helpful in drawing attention to these small-scale arenas or 'innovation niches' where translation of discourse into material realities is occurring. in conclusion, we review the implications of policy convergence for existing theories of policy change
drawing on theories of policy and technological change, we expand our assessment of the dynamics of policy convergence as follows. first, we introduce a number of theories of policy change, concentrating our analysis on those that try to conceptualise the messiness of change, and those that pay attention to discourse. second, we explore in detail how energy and climate change policies in the uk have converged in the period 1990 to 2007. the process of convergence has not been marked by conflict: indeed, despite the radical nature of some developments (for example, agreement on a 60% cut in carbon emissions), it has been surprisingly consensual. this calls into questions the assumption that rival storylines drive policy change through conflict (hajer, 1995; szarka, 2004). third, we identify four important storylines which we suggest have been influential in driving the convergent policy process, and make two key observations which raise questions about innovation in situations of policy convergence: first, that these storylines do not have distinct networks of actors - or discourse coalitions - associated with them, and, second, that the storylines do not appear to be in conflict, but happily co-exist. these dynamics - convergence, radical but consensual change, and storylines without associated coalitions - suggest that we need to rethink crucial aspects of policy analysis. to this end, in the fourth section of the paper we introduce ideas from science and technology studies about socio-technical regime transitions. we argue that the low level of conflict between our storylines stems in part from all four of them having been shaped by the incumbent energy regime. in other words, climate change has been 4 4 framed as a problem that can be solved by existing energy technologies and practices, for example nuclear power and energy efficiency. it is only when climate change discourse is implemented that underlying tensions in storylines emerge. socio-technical regime theory is helpful in drawing attention to these small-scale arenas or 'innovation niches' where translation of discourse into material realities is occurring. in conclusion, we review the implications of policy convergence for existing theories of policy change.
What does Attachment theory constitutes ?
attachment theory constitutes the psychological connectedness one person has to another, specifically between infant and mother (ainsworth 1989 bowlby 1969 
How children are able to become more selfreliant and feel more comfortable?
when provided with consistent emotional support and a safe environment, children are able to become more selfreliant and feel more comfortable taking risks and exploring the world (pianta and hamre 2009 ). while the first 18 months of life are often the major focus of attachment theory (ainsworth 1989 ), attachment bonds are present in relationships across the lifespan (hughes and akin-little 2007 
What did  attachment theory ' s emphasis?
however, given attachment theory ' s emphasis on early patterns of attachment predicting later development, the theory may have greater relevance during the early years of schooling
attachment theory constitutes the psychological connectedness one person has to another, specifically between infant and mother (ainsworth 1989 bowlby 1969 ). when provided with consistent emotional support and a safe environment, children are able to become more selfreliant and feel more comfortable taking risks and exploring the world (pianta and hamre 2009 ). while the first 18 months of life are often the major focus of attachment theory (ainsworth 1989 ), attachment bonds are present in relationships across the lifespan (hughes and akin-little 2007 ). however, given attachment theory ' s emphasis on early patterns of attachment predicting later development, the theory may have greater relevance during the early years of schooling. one of the first opportunities to form attachments outside the family unit is during the transition to school, when children can bond with peers and teachers (birch and ladd 1997 hamre and pianta 2001 ). early relationships with peers and teachers pave the way for later academic and behavioral performance. because attachment theory focuses on the importance of building strong social bonds, it is most applicable to the community domain of school climate, emphasizing how the quality and frequency of relationships within the school influence child development.
What is a long-term cycle?
considerablepublicdebatehas developedfollowingtherecord2005hurricaneseason on whether we are experiencing a peak in a long-term cycle of natural variability, or whether the above-average tropical cyclone and major hurricanes activity is part of a trend associated with greenhouse warming
What is reasonable data for a long time?
this is an important question and requires serious consideration. the main issue lies with how to differentiate a forced trend from natural variability using the limited available historical information and given the unknown level of uncertainty in this information. the only relationship for which there are reasonable data over a long period is that between tropical cyclones and sst, so we use this as the basis for our discussion here
Multidocal mode description?
goldenberg et al (2001) and kossin vimont (in press) associate the observed changes, including the current enhanced activity, with the atlantic multidecadal mode, which includes a strong correlation between ssts and cyclone activity in the natl. all of our climatic regimes are considered to be
considerablepublicdebatehas developedfollowingtherecord2005hurricaneseason on whether we are experiencing a peak in a long-term cycle of natural variability, or whether the above-average tropical cyclone and major hurricanes activity is part of a trend associated with greenhouse warming. this is an important question and requires serious consideration. the main issue lies with how to differentiate a forced trend from natural variability using the limited available historical information and given the unknown level of uncertainty in this information. the only relationship for which there are reasonable data over a long period is that between tropical cyclones and sst, so we use this as the basis for our discussion here. a natural variability bell chelliah (2006) provide a detailed summary of natural variability arguments in previous studies for long-period tropical cyclone changes, to which the reader is referred for full information. there are several views on the role of natural variability, most of which overlap. landsea et al (1999) concluded that there were no trends in any characteristics of natl tropical cyclones, and that the only signal arises from multidecadal oscillations. however, their analysis covered only the period 1944-1996, or tc2, which we have shown to be dominated by no net trend and a strong oscillation in major hurricane proportion. goldenberg et al (2001) and kossin vimont (in press) associate the observed changes, including the current enhanced activity, with the atlantic multidecadal mode, which includes a strong correlation between ssts and cyclone activity in the natl. all of our climatic regimes are considered to be
Describe the RCM?
this paper investigates how using different regional climate model (rcm) simulations affects climate change impacts on hydrology in northern europe using an offline hydrological model
which one is change the climate?
a rudimentary estimate of change in hydropower potential on the lule river due to climate change was also made
Tell me about two approaches?
the two approaches for transferring the signal of climate change to the hydrological impacts model gave similar mean results, but considerably different seasonal dynamics, a result that is highly relevant for other types of climate change impacts studies
this paper investigates how using different regional climate model (rcm) simulations affects climate change impacts on hydrology in northern europe using an offline hydrological model. climate change scenarios from an ensemble of seven rcms, two global climate models (gcms), two global emissions scenarios and two rcms of varying resolution were used. a total of 15 climate change simulations were included in studies on the lule river basin in northern sweden. two different approaches to transfer climate change from the rcms to hydrological models were tested. a rudimentary estimate of change in hydropower potential on the lule river due to climate change was also made. the results indicate an overall increase in river flow, earlier spring peak flows and an increase in hydropower potential. the two approaches for transferring the signal of climate change to the hydrological impacts model gave similar mean results, but considerably different seasonal dynamics, a result that is highly relevant for other types of climate change impacts studies.
What negative effects can reduced ventilation cause?
reduced ventilation can hinder the dispersal of urban heat islands. an important contribution to some urban heat islands is the emission of heat by human activities such as transport, and by heating and air conditioning of buildings. accelerated run-off of rainwater, along with reduced vegetation cover can reduce moisture availability in cities
the urban heat island is the elevation of air temperature within cities, and to a smaller extent within towns and villages, relative to the surrounding countryside. it is caused mainly by the retention of solar heat in the fabric of buildings and ground surfaces, and the obstruction and re-absorption of night-time outgoing longwave radiation by buildings which obstruct the sky view. paved ground surfaces transport more solar heat downwards than soil; this heat is then available for release overnight. reduced ventilation can hinder the dispersal of urban heat islands. an important contribution to some urban heat islands is the emission of heat by human activities such as transport, and by heating and air conditioning of buildings. accelerated run-off of rainwater, along with reduced vegetation cover can reduce moisture availability in cities. this can enhance the urban heat island by reducing the fraction of solar energy converted into latent heat and increasing the fraction becoming sensible heat. conversely, dry-climate cities with irrigated vegetation can have an urban cool island. local enhancement of atmospheric aerosol concentrations may also affect urban temperatures. generally, the urban heat island is strongest at night in high-rise city centers, weaker in residential suburbs, and also reduced in parks,5although exceptions to this have been reported.6during daytime, some of the solar heat absorbed by the urban structures is transferred to the overlying air; turbulent convection then mixes the warm air with cooler air aloft, so that the urban heat island is weak and may even be completely annulled locally by shading of the ground by tall buildings. because both solar and outgoing longwave radiation are restricted by cloud, the urban heat island is weakened in cloudy weather. because winds and the associated turbulence mix air both horizontally and vertically, the urban heat island is also weakened in windy weather. for full discussions of the nature of the urban heat island, see refs3,7,8. urban heat islands differ from city to city because of the different design of the structures and because of the different background climate. a city with few high-rise buildings will have a weaker heat island than one with many tall structures. the effect of urbanization will also depend on the nature of the natural land surface: if, for example, the land is marshy, the construction of the city may not raise night-time air temperatures because these would have naturally been elevated by the thermal properties of the marsh. a city in a cloudy climate will have a weaker heat island, on average, than a city with a sunny climate. a city in a coastal sea-breeze zone may sometimes, but not always, have a weaker heat island than a city further inland.9a city in a mountainous setting may have anomalous thermal regimes owing to katabatic winds.10the urban heat island may also be displaced downwind, affecting suburbs or nearby rural areas,11albeit with reduced amplitude.
Where is Jungfraujoch Research Station located?
jungfraujoch research station (jrs) the jrs is located at 3600 m.s.l. in the swiss alps in a region with minimal local particle sources
At what frequency does mixed-phase clouds occur during late winter and early spring at JRS?
mixed-phase clouds occur with a frequency of 40% during late winter and early spring at this site15
How were ice crystals separated?
ice crystals were separated when mixed-phase clouds were present using the ice-cvi
field sites storm peak laboratory (spl) field experiments were conducted on ambient aerosol at spl located at 3200 meters above sea level (m.s.l.) in the colorado rocky mountains. the high altitude and absence of local sources results in access to free tropospheric conditions, typically during overnight periods when subsidence of the planetary boundary layer occurs13. experiments at spl were performed during the fall of 2001 and spring of 2004 by exposing free tropospheric aerosol to cirrus cloud formation conditions with a cfdc. ice crystals were then separated with a cvi and analyzed using spms14. jungfraujoch research station (jrs) the jrs is located at 3600 m.s.l. in the swiss alps in a region with minimal local particle sources. mixed-phase clouds occur with a frequency of 40% during late winter and early spring at this site15. ice crystals were separated when mixed-phase clouds were present using the ice-cvi. residue was analyzed with spms and samples were collected for offline em during the late winter and early spring of 2006 and 2007.
who are relatively consistent in their achievement priority over time and across situations?
leaders are relatively consistent in their achievement priority over time and across situations
Leaders who are highly adaptive to the needs of the individual employee in which way to improve results?
leaders who are highly adaptive to the needs of the individual employee, task demands, and deadlines may be able to seamlessly shift in their emphasis of different priorities, in order to induce the appropriate form of state goal orientation
which integration can help how perceived task characteristics, as shaped by the leader?
theoretical integration of how perceived task characteristics, as shaped by the leader, and objective task characteristics would enable scholars to understand the fuller set of drivers, and their interrelation, that facilitate state goal orientation emergence
one assumption of the present model is that leaders are relatively consistent in their achievement priority over time and across situations. relaxing this assumption would allow scholars to explore a broader range of contingencies that produce more complex patterns of leader behavior. leaders who are highly adaptive to the needs of the individual employee, task demands, and deadlines may be able to seamlessly shift in their emphasis of different priorities, in order to induce the appropriate form of state goal orientation. moreover, leaders vary in their ability to adapt to changing circumstances, perhaps because of differences in leadership experience or in individual characteristics such as emotional intelligence. the consequence of this variation in leader versatility is that processes underlying the model presented here may differ across work groups in their temporal dynamics and level of analysis. additional theoretical guidance to more completely describe the drivers and consequences of leader versatility (i.e., leader pattern simplicity) would extend our understanding of how situational leadership affects group member state goal orientation in organizational settings. in addition, the present model builds on the notion that leaders, in part, shape how group members perceive the nature of the task and the evaluation of task performance to induce state goal orientation. ample conceptual space exists to articulate how and why objective task characteristics (e.g., number of tasks, change in task demands, diversity of tasks) impact state goal orientation. moreover, theoretical integration of how perceived task characteristics, as shaped by the leader, and objective task characteristics would enable scholars to understand the fuller set of drivers, and their interrelation, that facilitate state goal orientation emergence. this type of scholarship could inform researchers and practitioners on how to better manage group members on specific tasks to help ensure that desired motivational and performance outcomes are attained.
According to the text, name two institutions that have supported the publication
we appreciate the support of the fisheries and the environment (fate) program of the noaa national marine fisheries service and the noaa arctic program. we also appreciate discussions with n. bond
Who has funded the publication?
this publication is partially funded by the joint institute for the study of the atmosphere and ocean (jisao) under noaa cooperative agreement na17rj1232
What are the modeling groups acknowledged for?
we acknowledge the modeling groups for making their model output available as part of the world climate research programme's (wcrp) cmip3 multimodel data set
we appreciate the support of the fisheries and the environment (fate) program of the noaa national marine fisheries service and the noaa arctic program. we also appreciate discussions with n. bond. this publication is partially funded by the joint institute for the study of the atmosphere and ocean (jisao) under noaa cooperative agreement na17rj1232. this article is pacific marine environmental laboratory contribution 3019 and jisao contribution 1366. we acknowledge the modeling groups for making their model output available as part of the world climate research programme's (wcrp) cmip3 multimodel data set, the program for climate model diagnosis and intercomparison for collecting and archiving this data, and the wcrp's working group on coupled modeling for organizing the model data analysis activity. the wcrp cmip3 multimodel data set is supported by the u.s. department of energy office of science.
What is presented?
a simple approach to the smoothing of a potentially non-stationary time series
What does it provide?
an optimal choice among three alternative, readily motivated and easily implemented boundary constraints
What is this method applied to?
the smoothing of the instrumental northern hemisphere (nh) annual mean and coldseason north atlantic oscillation (nao) time series
a simple approach to the smoothing of a potentially non-stationary time series is presented which provides an optimal choice among three alternative, readily motivated and easily implemented boundary constraints. this method is applied to the smoothing of the instrumental northern hemisphere (nh) annual mean and coldseason north atlantic oscillation (nao) time series, yielding an objective estimate of the smoothed decadalscale variations in these series including long-term trends. index terms: 3309 meteorology and atmospheric dynamics: climatology (1620); 3394 meteorology and atmospheric dynamics: instruments and techniques; 4294 oceanography: general: instruments and techniques; 4594 oceanography: physical: instruments and techniques. citation: mann, m. e. (2004), on smoothing potentially nonstationary climate time series, geophys. res. lett. 31 l07214, doi:10.1029/2004gl019569.
How old are the three CCSM3 integrations?
the impact of parameterized ocean viscosity on global climate is explored with three 120-year integrations of ccsm3
What happens when viscosity reduction occurs?
it is found that reducing viscosity leads to a generally improved ocean circulation at the expense of an increase in numerical noise
What are the main improvements in the ocean?
the major ocean improvements are: in the equatorial pacific the emergence of tiws reduces the cold tongue bias common to many gcms including ccsm3. the acc becomes narrower and weakens by 20%, making it more realistic on both counts
the impact of parameterized ocean viscosity on global climate is explored with three 120-year integrations of ccsm3, a state of the art coupled climate model. it is found that reducing viscosity leads to a generally improved ocean circulation at the expense of an increase in numerical noise. the large-scale atmospheric circulation does not change noticably. the major ocean improvements are: in the equatorial pacific the emergence of tiws reduces the cold tongue bias common to many gcms including ccsm3. the acc becomes narrower and weakens by 20%, making it more realistic on both counts. the improved representation of the atlantic inflow into the arctic ocean leads to an improved sea-ice distribution there. the improved path of the kuroshio leads to an improved temperature and salinity distribution across the midlatitude pacific. reduced viscosity allows for a more realistic representation of the coastal currents in the labrador sea and removes a long standing bias of excessive sea-ice. based on these results we conclude that for ogcms numerical stability criteria only provide a starting point in the iterative search for an optimal viscosity. experimenting with the details may carry one beyond what is considered proper from the numerical point of view, but can lead to an overall superior solution. it appears that what is needed is a systematic exploration of the dependencies between viscosity, topography, resolution and noise. there are no hard rules on how much noise is acceptable in ogcms (see, however, griffies et al. [2000] for a lucid discussion on some of the issues). substantial noise exists even in a solution that obeys most numerical criteria (see cont in figure 2), simply because noise is not only created by numerical instabilities, but also by flow over small scale features in the model topography from where it radiates into the general circulation. thus ''the desire to model the complex, rough ocean bottom and coastline of physical reality is in competition with the simple, smooth topography needed to assure numerical accuracy'' mcwilliams 1996]. it should be noted that it is already common practice to artificially widen or deepen straits in ogcms to ensure realistic throughflow. in pop, for example, the florida strait and the korea/tsushima strait are deeper and wider than observed. one could argue that now, after adopting reduced viscosity, the korea/tsushima strait transport is too large (section 7) and the strait should be made shallower again. ignoring numerical constraints and reducing viscosity created a simulation that raises some physical questions, and highlighted sensitivities of climate relevant ocean processes: the flow around spitsbergen may be weak but has to be better understood before sea-ice predictions in climate warming scenarios can be made with confidence. the strong dependence of the acc transport on viscosity, especially the inverse relation between transport and kinetic energy, is to our knowledge not discussed in the literature. this adds another, new, element to the already complex acc dynamics. the momentum balance of the euc remains an unsolved issue. after reducing viscosity tiws should take over to remove momentum from the euc. however, they do not remove momentum sufficiently to create the proper core depth. the response of the coupled system to lower ocean viscosity depends on regional sst changes. therefore the general result that the large scale atmospheric circulation barely responds to significant oceanic improvements, although disappointing, is thoroughly consistent with the present understanding of air-sea interaction: large scale atmospheric changes can only be expected through convective anomalies triggered by sst anomalies in tropical warmpools [e.g., palmer and mansfield 1984]. as shown here, however, the warmpools are not affected significantly by viscosity. one the other hand, temperature changes in the arctic ocean and subpolar gyres can trigger sea-ice responses and a large ice-albedo feedback, which suggests that the coupled system in the ice covered oceans is more sensitive to changes in ocean parameterizations than the convectively active tropical oceans. it should be kept in mind, though, that the high-latitude oceans have strong horizontal and weak vertical temperature gradients, whereas the opposite is true for the tropics. thus horizontal mixing process should have a relatively larger impact in the high latitudes, whereas vertical mixing process should be more relevant for the tropics. reassessing the values and impacts of vertical mixing will be addressed in future research.
What is the recalcitrant COD?
the recalcitrant cod (also named biologically resistant cod (codrec)) refers to the portion of organic substrate that cannot be degraded by the fermentative microorganisms
Is COD fermented?
hence, the codrec is not fermented, and left biologically unaffected in the treated effluent
codch<s116>4 fraction of influent cod converted into methane (mg/l) codvfa fraction of cod still present as volatile fatty acids in the effluent (mg/l) recalcitrant cod the recalcitrant cod (also named biologically resistant cod (codrec)) refers to the portion of organic substrate that cannot be degraded by the fermentative microorganisms. the codrec is due to the complex substrate subjected to treatment in anaerobic reactors containing biomass not yet adapted to the complex substrate, or to the substrate considered biologically inert. hence, the codrec is not fermented, and left biologically unaffected in the treated effluent. figure 24.4 shows the cod balance throughout the anaerobic degradation process. soluble and particulate cod most of the compounds present in the raw sewage are not originally soluble and, added to the cells produced during the codbd degradation process, they form the portion of insoluble or particulate cod (codpart). the cod solubility is usually known by means of laboratory analyses, and it may be presented in three types:
Why should every region and country should have well-developed models now of what climate change will do?
in order that humane political decisions on the movement of peoples in the future can be carefully planned to avoid the later devastation in extreme climate events
What could be one of the most effective adaptation skills our society could develop?
to train enough climate modellers to be able to inform a generation of decision makers, and the communities they serve, on how to minimize the impacts of climate change on populations
what is one of the most effective methods to minimize climate change impact?
the careful, pre-emptive planning, and movement, of future populations
every region and country should have well-developed models now of what climate change will do to their industries, populations and ecosystems over time, in order that humane political decisions on the movement of peoples in the future can be carefully planned to avoid the later devastation in extreme climate events. perhaps one of the most effective adaptation skills our society could develop would be to train enough climate modellers to be able to inform a generation of decision makers, and the communities they serve, on how to minimize the impacts of climate change on populations. but it would depend on who was being affected, because we all know that humane political decisions often do not win votes, regardless of who is doing the polluting. such information may also be against the entrenched interests of some politicians and industries. we know enough already, in many instances, for it to be arguably irresponsible not to act to engineer our future history to minimize the impacts of our actions today on the well-being of the children of tomorrow. the careful, pre-emptive planning, and movement, of future populations is one of the most effective methods we have of minimizing such impacts, across the world or just across a town.
Corporate lobby?
lobby activity before the earth summit remains to be researched
the corporate connections to government delegations
considering the corporate connections to government delegations, it is unsurprising that they were so successful
legally binding agreements?
no legally binding agreements were reached at this second
corporate lobby activity before the earth summit remains to be researched, but it is telling that most of industry's goals for the earth summit (i.e. promoting "costeffective policies" and "self-regulation") were achieved. considering the corporate connections to government delegations, it is unsurprising that they were so successful. for example, the chair of the working party on sustainable development in one of the most powerful corporate lobby groups in the world, the international chamber of commerce, was also a member of the uk official delegation in rio.21the icc continues to have privileged access to policymakers and regularly makes statements to the international negotiating committee (inc) on climate change, representing the "voice of business." the voices of neo-liberal ideology seem consistently to be heard "loud and clear" in all international forums on climate change. corporations also promote business-friendly solutions through "partnerships" with ngos, governments and the un. this tactic is new, and exposes some dissension within corporate ranks. enron, for example, saw that kyoto "would do more to promote enron's business than will almost any other regulatory initiative," and was one of the main proponents of emissions trading.22along with expensive pr campaigns such as british petroleum's environmental "beyond petroleum" makeover, so-called progressive corporations have successfully advanced the concept of public-private-partnerships (ppps), wooing ngos and public opinion with slick public relations campaigns and advertising. this approach was epitomized by what happened at the world summit on sustainable development in johannesburg in 2002. no legally binding agreements were reached at this second earth summit. instead, over 280 ppps were showcased, highlighting the lack of political will on
What 2 aspects pose a threat to Estuaries and coastal seas?
estuaries and coastal seas provide valuable ecosystem services but are particularly vulnerable to the co-occurring threats of climate change and oxygen-depleted dead zones
How much does the temperature need to increase by to create a regional dead zone?
dead zones are in regions that will experience at least a 2 deg c temperature increase
What are Six reasons which have an impact on dead zones?
we found evidence that suggests numerous climate variables including temperature, ocean acidification, sea-level rise, precipitation, wind, and storm patterns will affect dead zones
estuaries and coastal seas provide valuable ecosystem services but are particularly vulnerable to the co-occurring threats of climate change and oxygen-depleted dead zones. we analyzed the severity of climate change predicted for existing dead zones, and found that 94% of dead zones are in regions that will experience at least a 2 deg c temperature increase by the end of the century. we then reviewed how climate change will exacerbate hypoxic conditions through oceanographic, ecological, and physiological processes. we found evidence that suggests numerous climate variables including temperature, ocean acidification, sea-level rise, precipitation, wind, and storm patterns will affect dead zones, and that each of those factors has the potential to act through multiple pathways on both oxygen availability and ecological responses to hypoxia. given the variety and strength of the mechanisms by which climate change exacerbates hypoxia, and the rates at which climate is changing, we posit that climate change variables are contributing to the dead zone epidemic by acting synergistically with one another and with recognized anthropogenic triggers of hypoxia including eutrophication. this suggests that a multidisciplinary, integrated approach that considers the full range of climate variables is needed to track and potentially reverse the spread of dead zones.
Specify the habitat categories?
1) highly specialized: species restricted to a well-defined habitat (e.g., rough sculpin cottus asperimmus, confined to sandybottomed spring-fed streams). (2) moderately specialized: species able to tolerate variability within their typical habitats (most fishes). (3) generalist: species able to exploit a wide variety of habitats, including artificial habitats such as reservoirs (e.g., sacramento sucker, catostomus occidentalis 
fish species have a high degree of habitat specialization (i.e., are not flexible in their choice of habitats) for all or part of their life-cycle, so they may be exceptionally likely to decline if their habitats are strongly altered by effects of climate change. this may be true even if they have high behavioral and physiological tolerances to change. thus a pupfish that has extreme physiological tolerances may still go extinct if springs it inhabits go dry or become too small. in scoring this variable, species are assigned to one of three habitat specialization categories: (1) highly specialized: species restricted to a well-defined habitat (e.g., rough sculpin cottus asperimmus, confined to sandybottomed spring-fed streams). (2) moderately specialized: species able to tolerate variability within their typical habitats (most fishes). (3) generalist: species able to exploit a wide variety of habitats, including artificial habitats such as reservoirs (e.g., sacramento sucker, catostomus occidentalis ).
What is the ordering of two integrals?
the ordering of the two integrals is deliberate
What does the supersaturation define?
this supersaturation defines two populations of droplets
What is used for the low sc CCN?
i1 is used for low sc ccn
the ordering of the two integrals is deliberate: i1 is used for low sc ccn, while i2 is used for the remaining ccn. this ordering will be justified subsequently (in section 4.4). the upper bound of i1 and the lower bound of i2 in equation (25) is termed the ''partitioning critical supersaturation,'' spart (figure 2). physically, this supersaturation defines two populations of droplets: one for which dp  dc and one for which either dp  dc or dp  dc (but still large enough to be considered a droplet). note that equation (25) assumes that for a given population, there is only one spart. if spart is known, the integral i can be evaluated and substituted into equation (18); smax and nd
What the anomaly correlations for the simulations indicate?
the anomaly correlations for the simulations indicate that potential prediction skill is high in only very few regions for any one season in this model (fig. 2a-d, top panels
in which parts is the loss of skills in the operational context?
the loss of skill in the operational context is greatest in regions where the climate is sensitive to errors in predicted sst anomalies
how can the sensitivity of an AGCM be estimated?
the sensitivity of an agcm to persisted sst anomalies, can be estimated by comparing the ensemble-mean anomaly correlations from the simulation to those from the hindcast
in an operational forecast setting, the skill of rainfall predictions from an agcm is unlikely to be as great as the potential prediction skill estimated from simulations forced with the simultaneous observed ssts. the loss of skill in the operational context is greatest in regions where the climate is sensitive to errors in predicted sst anomalies. the sensitivity of an agcm to persisted sst anomalies, can be estimated by comparing the ensemble-mean anomaly correlations from the simulation to those from the hindcast. to the extent that the magnitude or structure of dynamically important sst anomalies evolves through the season in any particular year, persisted sst anomalies will not accurately reflect the observed forcing of the system. an erroneous signal will then be generated in the agcm's climate, and a loss of skill will be reflected in weakened anomaly correlations for the hindcasts compared to the simulations. the anomaly correlations for the simulations indicate that potential prediction skill is high in only very few regions for any one season in this model (fig. 2a-d, top panels). this weakness in the predictability of precipitation is a typical property of current state-of-the-art agcms (e.g. peng et al. 2000), and may be an inherent property of precipitation variability for much of the globe. despite the poor skill globally, the tropics clearly display potential skill (fig. 2a-d, top panels), with the highest correlations typically found over northern south america, tropical africa, and the indonesia region. in fig. 2a-d, the bottom panels show the anomaly correlations for the hindcasts. the same coherent regions of skill identified in the simulations are, in general, captured by the persisted ssta hindcasts, which suggests that using persisted ssta constitutes a reasonable sst prediction for one-season lead time. however, even 8 though the hindcasts replicate much of the regional prediction skill, the anomaly though the hindcasts replicate much of the regional prediction skill, the anomaly correlation coefficients are often significantly less than were obtained with the simulations. in some cases, such as over western africa in june august and over eastern africa in september november, large and coherent regions in which the 9 model had good simulation skill have weak hindcast skill. the loss of prediction skill model had good simulation skill have weak hindcast skill. the loss of prediction skill over these two areas is examined in further detail below.
what should experiments allow?
such experiments should allow us to investigate implications on longer timescales that cannot be addressed with experiments, such as are described here, based on resampling of the instrumental record
what limits are placed on account of the results?
these results furthermore place upper limits on the possible resolved variance in proxy-based paleoclimate reconstruction, based on experiments using ''perfect'' (noise-free) proxies. finally, the results of these experiments support at least two distinct strategies for improved proxy-based largescale surface temperature pattern reconstructions
by whom are the first experiments with simulations of forced and control model using noise-free indicators described?
rutherford et al. [2002
the results of the experiments using synthetic 'pseudoproxy' indicators derived from the instrumental record itself to reconstruct instrumental surface temperature patterns over independent intervals in time support conclusions from cross-validation results for actual proxy-reconstructions. these results furthermore place upper limits on the possible resolved variance in proxy-based paleoclimate reconstruction, based on experiments using ''perfect'' (noise-free) proxies. finally, the results of these experiments support at least two distinct strategies for improved proxy-based largescale surface temperature pattern reconstructions. similar levels of resolved spatial variance can be obtained by a strategy of widespread sampling (hundreds of proxies) with relatively low snrs, or more selective sampling with a smaller number of proxy indicators with higher signal-to-noise ratios. in the latter case, in particular, certain regions are likely to be of particular importance (e.g. the tropical pacific). initial experiments with forced and control model simulations using noise-free indicators are described by rutherford et al. [2002]. similar experiments generating long synthetic proxy climate time series are currently underway. such experiments should allow us to investigate implications on longer timescales that cannot be addressed with experiments, such as are described here, based on resampling of the instrumental record. acknowledgments. this work was supported by the noaa and nsf-sponsored earth systems history program.
What do we agree with weitzman?
that a negative discount rate may be justified for climate policies
why the debate about the discount rate and misleading?
the debate about "the" discount rate is somewhat misleading because there is not a single discount rate but as many discount rates as there are distributions of costs and benefits among different populations
What does the discount rate depend on?
the formula that determines the discount rate is about changes in the consumption of two individuals the value
we do agree with weitzman, however, that a negative discount rate may be justified for climate policies. there is another line of argument that, combined with the phenomenon, described in the previous section, of convergence toward to the lowest rate in the long run, reinforces the presumption that negative values are relevant. the debate about "the" discount rate is somewhat misleading because there is not a single discount rate but as many discount rates as there are distributions of costs and benefits among different populations. we have already seen this phenomenon when the discount rate to be used depends on the time lag between generations, as in table 3. more generally, the formula that determines the discount rate is about changes in the consumption of two individuals the value of the discount rate depends on the consumption levels of these two individuals. imagine now that two individuals from a future generation, not just one individual, will benefit from a change in their consumption, so that we have to deal with the formula as before, one can compute the present value by dividing by the marginal utility of and compare this with a formula involving persontoperson discount rates: now this formula is structurally similar to the formula obtained in the case of risk. imagine that and share the benefit of the investment in fixed proportions: and
What is your interpretation of the baseline model?
i would interpret the baseline trajectory, from a conceptual point of view, as one that represents the outcome of market and policy factors as they currently exist
How would you describe the baseline model
the baseline model is an attempt to project from a positive perspective the levels and growth of population, output, consumption, saving, interest rates, greenhouse gas emissions, climate change, and climatic damages as would occur with no interventions to affect greenhouse-gas emissions
What do you think of the Government House approach?
i have always found the government house approach misleading in the context of global warming and particularly as it informs the negotiations of policies among sovereign states
i have always found the government house approach misleading in the context of global warming and particularly as it informs the negotiations of policies among sovereign states. instead, i would interpret the baseline trajectory, from a conceptual point of view, as one that represents the outcome of market and policy factors as they currently exist. in other words, the baseline model is an attempt to project from a positive perspective the levels and growth of population, output, consumption, saving, interest rates, greenhouse gas emissions, climate change, and climatic damages as would occur with no interventions to affect greenhouse-gas emissions. this approach does not make a case for the social desirability of the distribution of incomes over space or time of existing conditions, any more than a marine biologist makes a moral judgment on the equity of the eating habits of marine organisms in attempting to understand the effect of acidification on marine life.
What about planning policy in England?
planning policy in england allows flood plain development in certain circumstances, namely if there is nowhere more suitable
What do not planning officers have to worry about?
planning officers do not have to worry about the hassle of designing or financing flood defence schemes, as they do in scotland
How does the new EU Directive on Flooding define a flood?
the new eu directive on flooding now defines a flood as the ' temporary covering of land by water that is not normally covered by water
planning policy in england allows flood plain development in certain circumstances, namely if there is nowhere more suitable. <s121>* many parts of the southeast of england are short of land for development and what land there is often in an area of prime agricultural land, a site of special scientific interest, a conservation area or green belt or similar. as such it is protected against development by powerful interest groups with legal backing. <s121>* planning officers do not have to worry about the hassle of designing or financing flood defence schemes, as they do in scotland. instead, they pass this on to the environment agency. <s121>* planning officers are under pressure from property developers who often have undue influence over local or national political parties. perhaps it is coincidental that developers are often found to be major contributors to the funds of political parties. <s121>* planning officers are also under pressure from local elected members who want to see more development in their councils to bring in more income and wealth. <s121>* planning officers almost never consult with key stakeholders like the insurance industry, landowners, residents ' associations, flood survivor groups or others over flood risks as they do in scotland, so they get an entirely one-sided view of the problem. <s121>* many planning officers and members of committees on local councils simply do not understand the issues involved because they are not presented with adequate information and do not to talk to key stakeholders such as insurance companies who could help them to understand the implications for local communities. by contrast, local authorities in scotland regularly take advice from the insurance industry and in return the industry helps to resolve possible local difficulties of availability and affordability of insurance. however as a result of the scale of the recent flooding events in the uk, the insurance industry is taking a much harder line on developments in the flood plain. because the new eu directive on flooding now defines a flood as the ' temporary covering of land by water that is not normally covered by water ' (relating it not to how it got there but to the fact that it is there) the insurance industry is now moving to use legal precedents such as tate gallery v duffy construction ltd 2007, to explore the possibility of excluding flood cover from standard building insurance policies, making owners take on extra insurance to cover floods and satisfy mortgage lenders. more free ebooks http://fast-file.blogspot.com
What does the acronym GWP stands for?
global water partnership (gwp
What definitions has the Water Governance Centre (2012) and the OECD 2011a adopted regarding the governance of Global Water Partnership (GWP)?
 the range of political, social, economic and administrative systems that are in place to develop and manage water resources, and the delivery of water services, at different levels of society and for different purposes
According to the  Global Water Partnership or GWP, what does the water governance covers?
water governance covers the mechanisms, processes and institutions by which all stakeholders--government, the private sector, civil society, pressure groups--on the basis of their own competences, can contribute their ideals, express their priorities, exercise their rights, meet their obligations and negotiate their differences
to tackle the challenges of water in the city, it is necessary to take numerous aspects, interests and actors into account (philip et al. 2011 ). these can be brought together under the heading of water governance. hofstra 2013 considered a number of definitions. the water governance centre (2012) and the oecd 2011a have adopted the definition of the global water partnership (gwp) on governance: ' the range of political, social, economic and administrative systems that are in place to develop and manage water resources, and the delivery of water services, at different levels of society and for different purposes' according to the gwp, water governance covers the mechanisms, processes and institutions by which all stakeholders--government, the private sector, civil society, pressure groups--on the basis of their own competences, can contribute their ideals, express their priorities, exercise their rights, meet their obligations and negotiate their differences. recently, the oecd 2015b adopted the following definition of water governance: the range of political, institutional and administrative rules, practices and processes (formal
The studies are extend to an applicatioin of expected-utility analysis?
yet very few of these studies extend to an application of expected-utility analysis (exceptions are tol, 1999 and 2003), where climate risks can be valued in relation to society's attitudes to taking such risks
Is this the aprroach adopted by the review?
this is the approach adopted by the review
What the expceted-utility is ofted used to?
while expected-utility analysis is often used to investigate issues around learning and the resolution of uncertainty over time, it is surprising to us that it has not become the standard method of social-welfare valuation in this more simple exercise - estimating the cost of inaction under bau
monte carlo procedure, enabling climate impacts to be modelled probabilistically (e.g. hope, 2006; mastrandrea and schneider, 2004; plambeck et al ., 1997; roughgarden and schneider, 1999). yet very few of these studies extend to an application of expected-utility analysis (exceptions are tol, 1999 and 2003), where climate risks can be valued in relation to society's attitudes to taking such risks. this is the approach adopted by the review. while expected-utility analysis is often used to investigate issues around learning and the resolution of uncertainty over time, it is surprising to us that it has not become the standard method of social-welfare valuation in this more simple exercise - estimating the cost of inaction under bau. of course, expected-utility analysis has its own problems in this context (e.g. ellsberg, 1961; kahneman and tversky, 1979), but it is a standard 'workhorse' and the natural first step. in terms of welfare, it has an additive structure consistent with summation (or integration) over time and over people within a generation.
In what kind of regions is it suggested that the understatement of climate impacts  will be considerably larger?
the understatement of climate impacts will be considerably larger in the tropical regions
Do they conclude that the effects of climate change on farming will be the most severe on high or low income countries?
we conclude that the effects of climate change on farming will be most severe in low income, agriculture-dependent, tropical countries
Does it argue that high or low income economies are used in many of the Integrated Assessment Models being used to evaluate the global impacts of climate change?
many of the integrated assessment models being used to evaluate the global impacts of climate change and formulate global climate policy, are built on assumptions which are more appropriate for the high income
when information is provided it is seldom used in an optimal fashion (stern, easterling, and variability 1999; a. patt 2007). in addition to arguing that iams likely overstate the true adaptation response of highlyconstrained farmers, patt et al. (2010) argue that the same iams likely understate the impacts of climate change. this point is certainly underscored by the review of agricultural adaptation offered in this paper. as we have noted, most of the biophysical crop models currently used to assess climate impacts were not developed with this use in mind and, as such, they likely understate the impacts of extreme temperatures. and the iams surveyed here often draw on older crop modeling results, which are even less satisfactory. furthermore, the types of processes omitted by most crop models are precisely those which tend to be more important in tropical than in temperate systems, including effects of heat stress on grain set and leaf senescence, and pest and disease pressures. this suggests that the understatement of climate impacts will be considerably larger in the tropical regions. in sum, we conclude that the effects of climate change on farming will be most severe in low income, agriculture-dependent, tropical countries, with minimal adaptive capacity - the very countries least well equipped to cope with these changes. meanwhile, many of the integrated assessment models being used to evaluate the global impacts of climate change and formulate global climate policy, are built on assumptions which are more appropriate for the high income, industrialized economies exhibiting high adaptive capacity. since many of these economies also enjoy temperate climates, they are also less biophysically constrained when it comes to agricultural adaptation. as a result, decision makers relying on these models are likely underestimating the challenge posed by climate change to the world's poorest populations - particularly in sub-saharan africa.
What does this paper address?
in this paper therefore we assess the role of the accountancy profession in governing the new carbon economy, focusing on the role of the main international accountancy professional organisations and the work they are engaged in in positioning accountants as managers of carbon
How has the problem of climate change been predominantly addressed?
to date the most prominent way the problem of climate change has been addressed is through the construction of markets in which standard units of greenhouse gas emissions are created and exchanged
What is one of the most important international issues being faced?
climate change continues to be an important issue on national and international policy agendas (defra 2007; ipcc 2007
climate change continues to be an important issue on national and international policy agendas (defra 2007; ipcc 2007). to date the most prominent way the problem of climate change has been addressed is through the construction of markets in which standard units of greenhouse gas emissions are created and exchanged. a fuller understanding of both the potential and the weaknesses of carbon markets requires not just economics (the source of nearly all existing work on them) but also investigation of the implications of carbon markets for other disciplines and professional activities: interdisciplinary work on accounting is crucial in this respect, and to date has been somewhat overlooked by researchers in fields other than accounting (see mackenzie 2006 for an exception). practices of many kinds are needed to successfully commoditise carbon and make carbon markets work, and amongst these accounting is of particular importance. in this paper therefore we assess the role of the accountancy profession in governing the new carbon economy, focusing on the role of the main international accountancy professional organisations and the work they are engaged in in positioning accountants as managers of carbon.
What is the purpose of the report?
the purpose of this report is to illustrate the uncertainties in these estimates rather than to develop new cost estimates
Why do residual damages need to be evaluated and reported?
residual damages also need to be evaluated and reported because not all damages can be avoided due to technical and economic constraints
What are some sectors that are sometimes not included in an assessment of cost?
some sectors have not been included in an assessment of cost (e.g. ecosystems, energy, manufacturing, retailing, and tourism
several recent studies have reported adaptation costs for climate change, including for developing countries. they have similar-sized estimates and have been influential in discussions on this issue. however, the studies have a number of deficiencies which need to be transparent and addressed more systematically in the future. a re-assessment of the unfccc estimates for 2030 suggests that they are likely to be substantial under-estimates. the purpose of this report is to illustrate the uncertainties in these estimates rather than to develop new cost estimates, which is a much larger task than can be accomplished here. the main reasons for under-estimation are that: (i) some sectors have not been included in an assessment of cost (e.g. ecosystems, energy, manufacturing, retailing, and tourism); (ii) some of those sectors which have been included have been only partially covered; and (iii) the additional costs of adaptation have sometimes been calculated as 'climate mark-ups' against low levels of assumed investment. in some parts of the world low levels of investment have led to a current adaptation deficit, and this deficit will need to be made good by full funding of development, without which the funding for adaptation will be insufficient. residual damages also need to be evaluated and reported because not all damages can be avoided due to technical and economic constraints. there is an urgent need for more detailed assessments of these costs, including case studies of costs of adaptation in specific places and sectors.
How do memories of prior El Nino events affect acting on forecasts of other events?
the noise that can cause decision makers to be reluctant to act upon forecasts of any given event also includes memories of prior el nino events
What are examples of proactive measures that fishermen were hesitant to take due to memories of the false starts and finishes of the 1991-1995 El Ninos?
this made them hesitant to take significant proactive measures (e.g., cancel plans to build new boats and plants, buy new nets, divestment, etc
What may reinforce rejection of forcasts by decision makers?
rejection of forecasts may be reinforced if decision makers are already skeptical of a source of forecasts
the noise that can cause decision makers to be reluctant to act upon forecasts of any given event also includes memories of prior el nino events. for example, people indicated confusion because the 1997-98 event manifested early in the year compared to the last big event of 1982-83, causing uncertainty about how this event would develop. similarly, some fishermen, firms, and bankers recalled the false starts and finishes of the el ninos of 1991-95, and this made them hesitant to take significant proactive measures (e.g., cancel plans to build new boats and plants, buy new nets, divestment, etc.). finally, biological indicators which accompanied the 1982-83 event, such as the arrival of massive numbers of jellyfish to the coastal areas, did not occur in 1997-98. rejection of forecasts may be reinforced if decision makers are already skeptical of a source of forecasts, e.g., have preconceptions regarding somebody's credibility and/or an institution's capacity for producing reliable information. one basis observed for such preconceptions is a previous bad forecast by the institution. 426 kenneth broad et al.
What are the few affects of Biochar production?
atmospheric aerosol loading and albedo
What is the second most important contributor to anthropogenic global warming?
tropospheric bc
What is the primary cause of acute respiratory disease in less developed countries?
poor indoor air quality as a result of biomass burning for cooking
we have attempted to include in this model the most important effects of biochar on the net ghg balance. greenhouse gases are not the only manner, though, in which biochar can impact on the climate system. biochar production also has potential to affect both atmospheric aerosol loading and albedo. combustion of biomass is a major contributor to atmospheric soot emissions165. pyrolysis of biomass in well-designed, modern plant does not entail significant atmospheric emissions of soot. thus, replacing biomass combustion in developing regions with pyrolysis is likely to both reduce tropospheric bc concentrations and improve indoor air quality where biomass is used as a cooking fuel. tropospheric bc is the second most important contributor to anthropogenic global warming after carbon dioxide166 and, in the case of the asian brown cloud, responsible for reduced monsoon rainfall and agricultural yields167,168. poor indoor air quality as a result of biomass burning for cooking is the primary cause of acute respiratory disease in less developed countries where it is the chief cause of child mortality169. thus, replacement of traditional cooking fires with pyrolysis stoves may also have important health benefits. although pyrolysis itself should not produce significant particulates, we should be aware of the possibility that mismanagement of biochar during storage, transport and field application could lead to significant amounts of black carbon dust becoming airborne. if the material is finely divided, then some of these particles might be small enough to remain airborne for significant periods and to travel large distances. it may therefore be necessary to pelletize biochar in order to minimise dust. soil darkening as a result of biochar addition may also reduce the albedo of cropland during bare fallow periods and while crop cover is sparse. an evaluation of the size of these effects is, however, beyond the scope of this study and will require further research.
What is the relative importance of forced climate changes?
the relative importance of forced climate changes to internal climate variability tends to increase at larger spatial and temporal time scales because quantities that integrate forcing changes over very long space and time scales (e.g., decadal mean global ocean heat content) are tightly coupled to the net radiative imbalance of the planet
Define  variations in regional scale features?
conversely, many variations in regional scale features (e.g., weekly mean discharge of regional rivers) are expected to be driven primarily by internal climate variations (e.g., enso, pdo, random weather events
Which  dominate over the internal variability?
there are also regions like the central equatorial indian ocean, in which forced century-scale changes dominate over the internal variability
the relative importance of forced climate changes to internal climate variability tends to increase at larger spatial and temporal time scales because quantities that integrate forcing changes over very long space and time scales (e.g., decadal mean global ocean heat content) are tightly coupled to the net radiative imbalance of the planet. conversely, many variations in regional scale features (e.g., weekly mean discharge of regional rivers) are expected to be driven primarily by internal climate variations (e.g., enso, pdo, random weather events). fig. 4 illustrates this tendency by comparing global mean sst trends (left panel) with those over the north pacific from a five-member ensemble using gfdl cm2.1 from 1861 to 2000. in the global case, the ensemble members follow the ensemble mean fairly closely, and a warming trend over the century is apparent. in the north pacific, the ensemble members vary greatly around the ensemble mean, and no net warming is apparent. there exist exceptions to the tendency of internal variability to dominate at local scales and forced change to dominate at long (hemispheric, multi-decadal to centennial) scales. some hemispheric features, like the walker circulation, an east-west tropical atmospheric circulation, can be dominated by internal variability that occurs over many decades to a century vecchi et al., 2006 ). the large-scale circulation and temperature structure of the north atlantic ocean can exhibit considerable internal variability on time scales of many decades (e.g., delworth and mann, 2000 ). there are also regions like the central equatorial indian ocean, in which forced century-scale changes dominate over the internal variability fig. 5 ). evaluation of the relative roles of the forced signal versus internal variability should be carried on an application-specific basis. however, the strong prevalence of internal variability at regional scales and the fact that century-scale climate models are not designed to match the phase of internal variability (see discussion of model initialization in section 3.1 means that century-scale climate model simulations generally provide very weak constraints on regional climate changes on time scales of a few decades or less. 3.1.3. regional model biases climate models can have significant departures from observed patterns in ecosystem-relevant variables randall et al., 2007 ). for, example, fig. 6 shows global sst biases for a control simulation
Of the two sites, which one shows a decreased presence in the summer?
in the summer, as has already been explained before, presence decreases in karaiskaki
Of the two sites, which one shows an increased presence in the summer?
slightly increasing at the seashore, which in effect includes the people going there for a swim
In the winter, why is the increased presence at Karaiskaki much larger than at Seashore?
since at the seashore the areas exposed to the sun are predominantly the benches at the sea-front, which are also exposed to the wind, thus becoming unfavorable in terms of comfort
the various tendencies are better illustrated, by considering the regression analyses of presence over the meteorological parameters, on a seasonal basis, and furthermore for each site or identified area separately. once again correlations are low, yet certain patterns are distinguishable. the presence of people in the sun, for the two sites is rather different for both seasons (fig. 7). in the summer, as has already been explained before, presence decreases in karaiskaki, but is slightly increasing at the seashore, which in effect includes the people going there for a swim. on the other hand in winter, presence in the sun increases in both sites, yet the increase is much larger for the karaiskaki, since at the seashore the areas exposed to the sun are predominantly the benches at the sea-front, which are also exposed to the wind, thus becoming unfavorable in terms of comfort.
Where did all the obtained information come from?
all the information was obtained from the canadian soil information system (cansis) website in digital form
Do to what relatively minor to severe discontinuities and overlaps existed between adjacent soil map sheets?
due to differences in scales and mapping methods, relatively minor to severe discontinuities and overlaps existed between adjacent soil map sheets
How many unique soil types were identified in the watershed?
there were a total of 723 unique soil types identified in the watershed
soil data the surface soil information, illustrated in fig. 4 was assembled from various regional soil surveys conducted in the watershed. all the information was obtained from the canadian soil information system (cansis) website in digital form. however, several difficulties were encountered during the construction of the soil map and the associated database for the watershed. the grand river watershed spans a number of different counties and municipalities, each with its own soil survey and database, as shown in table 2 and fig. 4 due to differences in scales and mapping methods, relatively minor to severe discontinuities and overlaps existed between adjacent soil map sheets. therefore, in order to generate a continuous soil map for the entire watershed, these gaps and overlaps needed to be corrected. it was assumed that newer maps and maps with finer scales were more accurate and therefore were used to fill gaps (by extending edge polygons), and to trim the surrounding map sheets. there were a total of 723 unique soil types identified in the watershed. in addition to physical and chemical details, the associated soil database also contains information on soil type, number of layers, layer depths, and soil texture classifications. the subsurface data was then combined with the surface cover information to estimate the scs curve numbers for the model.
Why do the highly publicized graphs and charts showing global climate change data pose a problem?
many of the highly publicized graphs and charts showing global climate change data pose a problem for communicators because they fail to inspire a sense of urgency in many audiences. they do not help convey the deep concern scientists have that efforts to abate and adapt to climate change are a near-term necessity if humanity is to avert the worst effects
What do climate change communicators need to understand to create messages that will inspire action?
despite making this point with increasing frequency and stronger data, the general public shows little concern. even when people understand the keeling curve, it does not always motivate them to take action. the reason for this disconnect may lie in how the brain works, which climate change communicators need to understand to create truly powerful messages that will inspire action
Does understanding the Keeling curve, always work to motivate people to take action?
even when people understand the keeling curve, it does not always motivate them to take action
many of the highly publicized graphs and charts showing global climate change data pose a problem for communicators because they fail to inspire a sense of urgency in many audiences. they do not help convey the deep concern scientists have that efforts to abate and adapt to climate change are a near-term necessity if humanity is to avert the worst effects. despite making this point with increasing frequency and stronger data, the general public shows little concern. even when people understand the keeling curve, it does not always motivate them to take action. the reason for this disconnect may lie in how the brain works, which climate change communicators need to understand to create truly powerful messages that will inspire action.
What did the GCC decide in 1997?
december 1997, the gcc decided to shift its strategy from scientific uncertainties toward the high costs of mitigation and the lack of developing country commitments
What was the decision based on?
this decision was based, in part, upon market research that suggested the public was not engaged with the scientific debates and did not find industry a credible source. moreover, challenging the science was producing a backlash
What did a Ford executive acknowledge?
 a ford executive acknowledged that 'appearing negative hurts. we lost the first round of battles
december 1997, the gcc decided to shift its strategy from scientific uncertainties toward the high costs of mitigation and the lack of developing country commitments. this decision was based, in part, upon market research that suggested the public was not engaged with the scientific debates and did not find industry a credible source. moreover, challenging the science was producing a backlash. environmental groups in europe and the usa issued a number of reports that noted industry support for some climate sceptics, and attempted to frame the issue as big business using money and power to distort the scientific debate (corporate europe observatory, 1997; friends of the earth international, 1997; gelbspan, 1997; hamilton, 1998). a ford executive acknowledged that 'appearing negative hurts. we lost the first round of battles. we are now trying to be more positive with the science, while still pointing to the high cost of precipitate action. our actions wiu be less strident in the future.' the failure of the fossil-fuel industry's challenge can be understood, in terms of our framework, as a sequence of strategic miscalculations combined with countermoves by environmental groups in the key realm of civil society. the gcc's efforts clearly demonstrated a concern for the mantle of scientific legitimacy, yet the ipcc scientists were much more entrenched in civil society at the national level as well as within the international climate institutions than the few climate sceptics. moreover, industry's efforts at 'astroturf organizing' only highlight the shallow and artificial nature of support within civil society for industry's position. at best, the gcc's efforts created some cover for politicians allied to fossil fuel industry interests and created some confusion among the public. it should be noted, however, that environmental ngos, while successful in discrediting some industry initiatives, did little better in building a strong grassroots campaign, preferring instead to pursue an clite-level strategy that targeted the corridors of power in washington
What does all experts agree concerning carbon dioxide?
although nearly all domain experts agree that carbon dioxide emissions are altering the world's climate, segments of the public remain unconvinced by the scientific evidence
What part have bloggers played in climate change?
internet blogs have become a platform for denial of climate change, and bloggers have taken a prominent role in questioning climate science
Other than climate change, which other scientific findings has the endorsement of free-market economics helped predict?
endorsement of free markets also predicted the rejection of other established scientific findings, such as the facts that hiv causes aids and that smoking causes lung cancer
although nearly all domain experts agree that carbon dioxide emissions are altering the world's climate, segments of the public remain unconvinced by the scientific evidence. internet blogs have become a platform for denial of climate change, and bloggers have taken a prominent role in questioning climate science. we report a survey of climateblog visitors to identify the variables underlying acceptance and rejection of climate science. our findings parallel those of previous work and show that endorsement of free-market economics predicted rejection of climate science. endorsement of free markets also predicted the rejection of other established scientific findings, such as the facts that hiv causes aids and that smoking causes lung cancer. we additionally show that, above and beyond endorsement of free markets, endorsement of a cluster of conspiracy theories (e.g., that the federal bureau of investigation killed martin luther king, jr.) predicted rejection of climate science as well as other scientific findings. our results provide empirical support for previous suggestions that conspiratorial thinking contributes to the rejection of science. acceptance of science, by contrast, was strongly associated with the perception of a consensus among scientists. keywords scientific communication, policymaking, climate science
What is the starting assertion about the relationship between information and political will/institutional capacity?
information is worthless without political will or institutional capacity; however, without information, political will or institutional capacity will achieve little
What is the discrepancy between modelling and health effects in eveloping countries?
little modelling has been done outside developed countries despite the eff ects on health being skewed towards developing countries
What is a key challenge that prevents developing countries from wide-scale implementation of  meteorological stations?
a key challenge is the fi nancial and technical constraints that prevent developing countries from wide-scale implementation of these stations
the generation of reliable, relevant, and up-to-date information will be essential to respond to the negative health eff ects of climate change. information is worthless without political will or institutional capacity; however, without information, political will or institutional capacity will achieve little. this challenge is about the generation and dissemination of relevant information about the public health eff ects of climate change and how to address them. in developed countries, at least, general awareness of the issue seems well established. yet, much more detailed and specifi c information is necessary if an intelligent response is to be made. information pertaining to specifi c regions, countries, and localities is an important resource, which is not yet suffi ciently available for poor countries.17 building the capacity of governments and universities in the poorest countries could take a long time to accomplish, therefore new operational systems for vulnerability assessments are needed especially in africa and asia. south america and caribbean countries have done much to assess the eff ect of climate change, but a lot remains to be done. who has identifi ed key gaps in knowledge--notably, a lack of region-specifi c projections of changes in health-related exposures and a lack of research on health outcomes concerning various future emissions and adaptation scenarios. who has also noted the issues of models that generalise health outcomes between locations because important local factors, such as transmission dynamics, might not be well captured. varying capacity for research and adaptation in low-income and middle-income countries is likely to deepen the inequality of health eff ects. the geographical distribution of the 16 national health impact assessments of climate change done between 2001 and 2007 is indicative. only fi ve assessments were in low-income or middle-income countries--india, bolivia, panama, bhutan, and tajikistan--and none were in africa. local capacities for research must be strengthened with local responses to climate change. little modelling has been done outside developed countries despite the eff ects on health being skewed towards developing countries. information that is reliable, accurate, and disseminated is fundamental for eff ective adaptation and to avoid the so-called adaptation apartheid. for example, heatwaves are silent killers. although we have good data for the eff ects of heatwaves in the usa and europe, almost no reliable data for heatwave-induced mortality exist in africa or south asia.94,95 disease monitoring, surveillance, and health early warning systems depend on reliable information provided by meteorological stations worldwide. however, the number of these stations in africa, for example, is eight times lower than the minimum recommended by the world meteorological organisation, and reporting rates are the lowest in the world.96 a key challenge is the fi nancial and technical constraints that prevent developing countries from wide-scale implementation of these stations.14
There is a 15-year change in the global hydrologic response to warmer global conditions. Relationship lower global temperature versus global runoff along which ?
1925-1994 period
fig. 4. top annual global temperature (red) and global runoff (blue) fluctuations over the 1875-1994 period. five year moving average of both signals are superimposed in order to highlight the general tendency. note the existence of both periods: a conjugated decrease of temperature and runoff over the 1875-1910 period followed by a conjugated increase of both signals over the 1925-1994 period. there is a 15 years shift in the global hydrological response to global warmer conditions. bottom global temperature versus global runoff relationship over the 1925-1994 period. the linear regression is characterized by a 0.039 slope significantly different from zero t -student test equal to 12.45). (for interpretation of the references of colour in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)
What is the allocation of water for envirnomental flows in the Murray Basin based on
the premise that these flows sustain biodiversity and ecosystem services
What will need to chnage to allow rivers and their habitats to adapt to climate change
current practices that give higher priority to consumptive water diversions at the expense of environmental flows
What would seem to be the biggest threat to ecosystem health in these river basins
high levels of water extractions
murray-darling and orange-senqu there are also scenarios where water availability increases. if the climate change projections prove correct, it would seem that the greatest threat to river ecosystem health in these basins will continue to be the high levels of water extractions. this conclusion does not imply that climate change is not a threat, nor does it suggest that other climate adaptation policies should not be adopted in the river basins, but it does support the view that the most effective adaptation option is to reduce consumptive water uses. the four river basins provide insights about the shortcomings of current water governance in the face of reduced water availability under climate change. capturing a large proportion of the inflows for consumptive purposes imposes large costs through reduced riverine ecosystem functions in all four rivers. this diminishes opportunities to capture ecosystem services for agriculture, fisheries, forestry and tourism. in some rivers, such as the yellow, water extraction has increased sedimentation and the risk of flooding in the lower reaches, which is one reason that the chinese government has reallocated water to environmental flows. although only documented for the murray-darling basin, improved ecosystem services associated with increased flows--arising from floodplain vegetation, waterbird breeding, native fish and the rehabilitation of the coorong, lower lakes and murray mouth--are comparable to the value of irrigated agriculture<s245>36,37. the proposed allocation of water for environmental flows in the murray-darling basin is based on the premise that these flows sustain biodiversity and ecosystem services. in addition, over-extraction reduces the reliability of surface and groundwater supply as flood plain flooding can be critical in many rivers systems for groundwater recharge<s245>29. the high temporal and spatial variability of river inflows in all four rivers requires practices that protect the environment during periods of low flows. this demands water allocation management plans that 'share' the variability equally between users and the environment. current practices that give higher priority to consumptive water diversions at the expense of environmental flows<s245>38,39, especially when aquatic ecosystems have become vulnerable because of long-term below-average inflows, will need to change to allow rivers and their habitats to adapt, where possible, to climate change.
What is meant by LEED?
leading in energy and environmental design (leed
Which industry have influence on Building Regulations?
the air conditioning industry is fighting back through the means of their influence on building regulations
what is Architects concern?
architects were so concerned with producing ever more outr e buildings they did not even notice that they had given away half their workload by deskilling themselves in building performance. they complain now their commissions have loosely halved from 10% to 5% and wonder why. this an almost lose - lose - lose situation for architects, building owners and occupiers and the environment, but architects did very little to stop it arising
the air conditioning industry is fighting back through the means of their influence on building regulations, for instance in the uk, that favour air-conditioned buildings and in the usa through the promotion of leading in energy and environmental design (leed) ' green building ' ratings that again promote the use of large, centralized air conditioning systems (see box 11.2 ). it is perhaps not hard to understand why modern buildings have evolved in a form that requires expensive, often unnecessary, energy-profligate air conditioning systems. this is a very lucrative industry. unfortunately, is has encouraged buildings to degenerate into being unoccupiable without machines. architects were so concerned with producing ever more outr e buildings they did not even notice that they had given away half their workload by deskilling themselves in building performance. they complain now their commissions have loosely halved from 10% to 5% and wonder why. this an almost lose - lose - lose situation for architects, building owners and occupiers and the environment, but architects did very little to stop it arising. 15 as early as the 1950s architects and building services engineers were warned that the ' modern building ' had serious design problems including their uncomfortable indoor conditions driving the need for air conditioning. they also highlighted the fact that, as early and later studies have shown, many people often do not actually like working in air-conditioned offices.
What model was used to simulate an Eocene ~ 50 Ma "greenhouse" climate?
a coupled general circulation model with interactive and dynamical atmospheric, oceanic, and sea-ice components
How did sea surface temperatures (SSTs) evolved by the model differ from modern values?
tropical and extratropical model-predicted ssts are warmer than modern values, by 3 and 5*c, respectively
How did the model's Eocene ocean heat transport differ from modern values?
eocene ocean heat transport is 0.6 pw less than modern in the northern hemisphere and 0.4 pw greater in the southern hemisphere
for the first time, a coupled general circulation model with interactive and dynamical atmospheric, oceanic, and sea-ice components, is used to simulate an eocene ~ 50 ma) "greenhouse"climate. we introduce efficient ocean spin-up methods for coupled paleoclimate modeling. sea surface temperatures (ssts) and salinities evolve unconstrained, producing the first proxy data-independent estimates for these eocene climate parameters. tropical and extratropical model-predicted ssts are warmer than modern values, by 3 and 5*c, respectively. salinity-driven deep water formation occurs in the north atlantic and tethys. the zonal average overturning circulation is weaker than modern. eocene ocean heat transport is 0.6 pw less than modern in the northern hemisphere and 0.4 pw greater in the southern hemisphere. the model-predicted near-modern vertical and meridional eocene temperature gradients imply that the dominant theory for maintaining low gradients--increased ocean heat transport--is incorrect or incomplete and other mechanisms should be explored.
explain the limits for environmental tolerance?
the study of the physiological and biochemical mechanisms that set the limits for environmental tolerance, and which in many ways distinguish species, is an active area of investigation that has gained importance in the current era of climate change
What is environmental variable?
my focus on predominantly one group of fishes (the salmonids) and on one environmental variable (temperature) is for two reasons. first, this is where data are most abundant. second, a case study of temperature tolerance among fishes is likely to prove extremely fruitful in addressing the more general and important question of animal resilience and adaptability to environmental change
Explain the entire temperature range?
however, no single fish species tolerates the entire temperature range exploited by fishes (from -2degc in antarctica to +42degc in lake magadi, kenya). similarly, ~43% of all fish species live in freshwater rather than the vastly more abundant saline habitats [>99% of the available aquatic habitat (nelson, 2006
the study of the physiological and biochemical mechanisms that set the limits for environmental tolerance, and which in many ways distinguish species, is an active area of investigation that has gained importance in the current era of climate change. this article is focused on the physiological mechanisms that become critical when fishes, particularly salmonids, approach their upper temperature limits. furthermore, to address the need for examples of how large-scale environmental records of climate are translated at the scale of the organism (helmuth, 2009), this mechanistic understanding is applied to the river migration of an adult pacific salmon species. my focus on predominantly one group of fishes (the salmonids) and on one environmental variable (temperature) is for two reasons. first, this is where data are most abundant. second, a case study of temperature tolerance among fishes is likely to prove extremely fruitful in addressing the more general and important question of animal resilience and adaptability to environmental change. this is because fishes have evolved around species-specific niches, living in almost every conceivable aquatic habitat and representing almost half of the earth's vertebrate species. however, no single fish species tolerates the entire temperature range exploited by fishes (from -2degc in antarctica to +42degc in lake magadi, kenya). similarly, ~43% of all fish species live in freshwater rather than the vastly more abundant saline habitats [>99% of the available aquatic habitat (nelson, 2006)]. although the foundation for the thermal distributions that we see today may seem to reflect an absence of the requisite genomic machinery, a more circumspect view may be need. for example, antarctic fishes, which have lived in a thermally stable environment for many thousands of years, are now known to be able to thermally acclimate to temperatures previously thought to be lethal and well above those found in their present ecological niche (franklin et al., 2007). thus, observing a stenothermal existence does not necessarily mean insufficient phenotypic plasticity to tolerate a broader temperature range.
When and with what agreement did preparations for the Copenhagen conference start?
two years had been spent in preparing for the conference, a process that had started with the adoption of the bali road map in 2007
Why were the negotiations at Copenhagen not only painstakingly slow and cumbersome, but also extremely complicated?
the negotiations at copenhagen were painstakingly slow and cumbersome, complicated not least by the need to agree a package deal that includes all elements of the climate regime (emission reductions, timetables, financing, etc.) and that is acceptable to all countries
What role did the heads of a few governments play during the closing days and hours of the Copenhagen conference?
this was evident not least in the closing days and hours of the copenhagen conference when heads of government wrestled the initiative from their official negotiators and created a more fluid yet manageable framework for striking bargains
the final stage of the copenhagen conference also brought to light the shortcomings of the un negotiation framework. two years had been spent in preparing for the conference, a process that had started with the adoption of the bali road map in 2007. at cop-15, negotiators from over 190 countries spent a further intensive two weeks negotiating (unsuccessfully) over heavily bracketed texts, only to see a smaller group of heads of government take over and draft a compromise agreement that was not based on the official negotiation texts prepared in the preceding cop working groups. in the end, the cop plenary, the official un forum with decision-making authority, failed to adopt the leaders' copenhagen accord. it merely took note of it. the negotiations at copenhagen were painstakingly slow and cumbersome, complicated not least by the need to agree a package deal that includes all elements of the climate regime (emission reductions, timetables, financing, etc.) and that is acceptable to all countries. as the un climate convention approaches universal acceptance with a total of 194 ratifications as of 2010, it may produce a high degree of participation and legitimacy but ends up delivering a diminishing rate of return in terms of effective bargaining. a growing number of observers now argue that un-style decision making based on the consensus principle has become an impediment to a post-kyoto climate regime (hamilton, 2009). this was evident not least in the closing days and hours of the copenhagen conference when heads of government wrestled the initiative from their official negotiators and created a more fluid yet manageable framework for striking bargains. the use of smaller and more exclusive negotiation groups is a common feature of international environmental negotiations. but as was to be expected, the copenhagen accord was criticised by some parties for its lack of ambition and legitimacy. it remains to be seen whether the new bargaining structure that emerged in the final two days of the climate summit remains a one-off event or points to the arrival of a new form of multi-track diplomacy in climate politics.
What this case provides?
it provided a quantification of the value of such new knowledge by specifying the degree of change in the range estimate that would alter the choice of decision
What this assessment is suggesting?
this assessment suggested that the requisite combination of extreme sea level rise, storm surge increase, and longer-than-expected terminal lifetime were sufficiently unlikely, given current knowledge, to warrant hardening at only one of the four facilities analyzed
what kind of information are considered in this case?
statistical fits to observed data, probabilistic estimates, and model-based process studies
this assessment suggested that the requisite combination of extreme sea level rise, storm surge increase, and longer-than-expected terminal lifetime were sufficiently unlikely, given current knowledge, to warrant hardening at only one of the four facilities analyzed. building on our first case study, this example highlights a number of important elements of rdm, including how to employ climate information with different levels of uncertainty in the same analysis and combining this uncertain climate information with uncertain information about relevant socioeconomic factors. combining the different types of information considered in this case, e.g., statistical fits to observed data, probabilistic estimates, and model-based process studies, provides a concrete illustration of how one does not have to 'build the big model' (i.e., do consolidative modeling) to provide decision-relevant information about the behavior of a complex system. in addition, similarly to the ieua example, the supply of information about factors such as rapid sea level rise due to ice sheet disintegration or increased storminess would not have been sufficient to meet the demand for high confidence under a prediction paradigm but was, however, sufficient to support the rdm analysis. at the same time, this case suggested ways in which climate science and modeling could progress to improve the bounding analyses for these deeply uncertain factors. it provided a quantification of the value of such new knowledge by specifying the degree of change in the range estimate that would alter the choice of decision. more generally, the imprecise probability interval for a particular threshold is decision-relevant but not, in general, what the climate modeling community
Since economists focus more on the efficiency and analyzed mechanism, what have they decreased their attention on?
they have given less attention to the notion of distributive fairness or equity
What is the principle that the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change recognizes?
the principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities
solving social dilemmas as they arise in the provision of public goods or the management of common resources frequently requires voluntary cooperation among the parties involved. while economists have often concentrated on the question of efficiency and analyzed mechanisms to obtain optimal provision levels, they have given less attention to the notion of distributive fairness or equity. this is different in the political arena: in a world where no single party will provide the common good in sufficient quantity and no institution exists to enforce cooperation, an agreement will only be accepted by the parties if it is perceived to be fair. the international negotiations on the mitigation of climate change are one prominent example. already a quick glance at international climate policy indicates a vital role of equity as the un framework convention on climate change recognizes the principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities". a look at statements by agents from different countries shows that some of them are concerned with equity issues. notions like "equal per capita emissions", "polluter-pays", or "sovereignty" all stem from specific views on equity. cazorla and toman (2001), ringius et al. (2002), najama et al. (2003), and others study the role of equity issues and fairness in international climate policy. the link between equity interest and the prospects of international cooperation is explored by lange and vogt (2003) and lange (2006). they show that equity preferences of the different negotiating parties can increase cooperation rates compared with the relatively pessimistic predictions from traditional economic models of coalition formation (barrett, 1992, 1994; carraro and siniscalco, 1993; hoel, 1993). similarly, ringius et al. (2002) state that "notions of fairness can provide a basis for an international regime only if there is a certain minimum of consensus among its members about what is fair and what is unfair". in identifying several equity rules which are frequently used in international climate policy, they conclude that there is limited empirical research on which principles are widely accepted and why they play a role in the climate negotiations. based on unique data from a world-wide survey of agents involved in international climate policy, our paper attempts to close this gap in the literature. we analyze the importance of equity issues in general as well as the importance of different equity rules.
How do the climate scenarios differ?
climate scenarios differ substantially due to uncertainties with regard to climate forcing caused by greenhouse emissions, uncertainties caused by imperfect representation of the process in the models and uncertainties with regard to initial condition
What are GCMs?
the general circulation models (gcms) which are considered as the most advance tools for estimating future climate change scenarios operate on a coarse scale. however, the climate impact studies in hydrology often require climate change information at fine spatial scale. therefore the output from a gcm has to be downscaled to obtain information relevant to hydrological studies
How the Statistical DownScaling Model was employed?
statistical downscaling model (sdsm) was employed to convert the gcm output into daily meteorological variables appropriate for hydrological impact studies. the meteorological variables (minimum temperature, maximum temperature and precipitation) downscaled from sdsm were used as input to the hbv hydrological model which was calibrated (r2=0.86) and validated (r2=0.76) with historical data to investigate the possible impact of climate change in the catchment
climate scenarios differ substantially due to uncertainties with regard to climate forcing caused by greenhouse emissions, uncertainties caused by imperfect representation of the process in the models and uncertainties with regard to initial condition. the general circulation models (gcms) which are considered as the most advance tools for estimating future climate change scenarios operate on a coarse scale. however, the climate impact studies in hydrology often require climate change information at fine spatial scale. therefore the output from a gcm has to be downscaled to obtain information relevant to hydrological studies. this report presents the results of a study on downscaling large scale atmospheric variables simulated with general circulation models (gcms) to meteorological variables at local scale in order to investigate the hydrological impact of possible future climate change in gilgel abbay catchment (ethiopia). statistical downscaling model (sdsm) was employed to convert the gcm output into daily meteorological variables appropriate for hydrological impact studies. the meteorological variables (minimum temperature, maximum temperature and precipitation) downscaled from sdsm were used as input to the hbv hydrological model which was calibrated (r2=0.86) and validated (r2=0.76) with historical data to investigate the possible impact of climate change in the catchment. the results obtained from this investigation indicate that there is significant variation in the seasonal and monthly flow. in the main rainy season (june-september) the runoff will be reduced by 12% in the 2080s. the result from synthetic (incremental) scenario also indicates that the catchment is sensitive to climate change. as much as 33% of the seasonal and annual runoff will be reduced if an increment of 2oc in temperature and reduction of 20% rainfall occur simultaneously in the catchment. key words climate change, gcm, hbv, sdsm
What's the method described in Medley?
we use a method described in medley et al. (2015), which allows for spatial variations in the firn density profile in both radar7 depth estimation as well as conversion to water equivalence
What does the method solves?
the method iteratively solves for a depth-density profile for each measurement that is consistent with the radar-derived accumulation rate as well as long-term modeled 2-meter air temperature from merra-2 and an initial density of 350 kg m- 3
How many years of accumulation over the Getz ice shelf were they able to record?
for the ronne ice shelf survey, we are able to generate a 30-year time series (1985-2014); however, we are only able to record 10 years of accumulation over the getz ice shelf, which is due to its high accumulation rate ~ 900 mm w e y- 1
we use a method described in medley et al. (2015), which allows for spatial variations in the firn density profile in both radar7 depth estimation as well as conversion to water equivalence. the method iteratively solves for a depth-density profile for each measurement that is consistent with the radar-derived accumulation rate as well as long-term modeled 2-meter air temperature from merra-2 and an initial density of 350 kg m- 3. for the ronne ice shelf survey, we are able to generate a 30-year time series (1985-2014); however, we are only able to record 10 years of accumulation over the getz ice shelf, which is due to its high accumulation rate ~ 900 mm w e y- 1). thus, the model evaluation over the getz is less robust than over the ronne and 5
What is relative contribution?
the relative contribution of each flux to the correlations between temperature and melt energy was assessed. at zongo, net short-wave radiation controls the variability of the energy balance and is poorly correlated to temperature. on tropical glaciers, temperature remains low and varies little, melt energy is poorly correlated to temperature, and degree-day models are not appropriate to simulate daily melting. at the yearly scale, the temperature is better correlated to the mass balance because it integrates the ablation and the accumulation processes over a long time period
What is correlations?
the relative contribution of each flux to the correlations between temperature and melt energy was assessed. at zongo, net short-wave radiation controls the variability of the energy balance and is poorly correlated to temperature. on tropical glaciers, temperature remains low and varies little, melt energy is poorly correlated to temperature, and degree-day models are not appropriate to simulate daily melting. at the yearly scale, the temperature is better correlated to the mass balance because it integrates the ablation and the accumulation processes over a long time period
What is melt energy?
the relative contribution of each flux to the correlations between temperature and melt energy was assessed. at zongo, net short-wave radiation controls the variability of the energy balance and is poorly correlated to temperature. on tropical glaciers, temperature remains low and varies little, melt energy is poorly correlated to temperature, and degree-day models are not appropriate to simulate daily melting. at the yearly scale, the temperature is better correlated to the mass balance because it integrates the ablation and the accumulation processes over a long time period
this study investigates the physical basis of temperature-index models for three glaciers in contrasting climates: zongo (16degs, 5050 m, bolivian tropics), st sorlin (45degn, 2760 m, french alps), and storglaciaren (67degn, 1370 m, northern sweden). the daily energy fluxes were computed during melt seasons and correlated with each other and with air temperature on and outside the glacier. the relative contribution of each flux to the correlations between temperature and melt energy was assessed. at zongo, net short-wave radiation controls the variability of the energy balance and is poorly correlated to temperature. on tropical glaciers, temperature remains low and varies little, melt energy is poorly correlated to temperature, and degree-day models are not appropriate to simulate daily melting. at the yearly scale, the temperature is better correlated to the mass balance because it integrates the ablation and the accumulation processes over a long time period. at sorlin, the turbulent sensible heat flux is greater because of higher temperatures, but melt variability is still controlled by short-wave radiation. temperature correlates well with melt energy mainly through short-wave radiation, probably due to diurnal advection of warm air from the valley. at storglaciaren, high correlations between temperature and melt energy result from substantial variability and good correlations with temperature of the turbulent fluxes of sensible and latent heat, which both supply energy to the glacier. in the three climates, long-wave irradiance is the main source of energy, but its variatibility is small and poorly correlated to the temperature mainly because of cloud emissions.
How much does your production increased over the last fifty years?
approximately 60% of the land area is devoted to agriculture while 1% is urban. over the past fifty years, the number of farms decreased by over 60% but the percentage of cultivated land has increased. agricultural land values have increased by over 30% in the last two years. the most valuable crop is corn (about can $110 million gross revenue in 2002), followed by soybean (about can $45 million), followed by hay (about can $3.5 million
What is the least productive activity in terms of gross revenue?
milk production is the least productive activity in terms of gross revenue (about can $350,000
Why does the industrial project has been aproved by municipality?
it will have an impact on corn production in the region and on agricultural pollution; corn is a fertilizer - intensive crop leading to high soil erosion10and, as ethanol production is also water-intensive, water quantity and quality concerns in the region will increase
approximately 60% of the land area is devoted to agriculture while 1% is urban. over the past fifty years, the number of farms decreased by over 60% but the percentage of cultivated land has increased. agricultural land values have increased by over 30% in the last two years. the most valuable crop is corn (about can $110 million gross revenue in 2002), followed by soybean (about can $45 million), followed by hay (about can $3.5 million). milk production is the least productive activity in terms of gross revenue (about can $350,000). promoters from quebec, where new large hog farms are forbidden, have been establishing new farms in the region despite the objections of local municipalities, which do not have the necessary environmental tools to protect themselves. an industrial project in the cornwall area to process approximately 6.6 million bushels of corn per year into 66 million liters of ethanol for use in fuel application has been approved by the municipality. it will have an impact on corn production in the region and on agricultural pollution; corn is a fertilizer - intensive crop leading to high soil erosion10and, as ethanol production is also water-intensive, water quantity and quality concerns in the region will increase. 2.3. municipal legal framework
What does the science suggest about climate change?
the science suggests that it is probably more likely than not that rapid climate change will result later in the century with potentially quite catastrophic results
The core elements of which report have become the new conventional wisdom of climate change?
the starting point is the economics of climate change--the title of the stern report. the core elements of that report have become the new conventional wisdom of climate change--and all three of the main ones are open to serious challenge
What is the next step after recasting the economics of the problem of climate change?
having recast the economics of the problem of climate change, the next step is to analyse the problem of international negotiations in terms of consumption rather than production--to get the accounting sorted out
it is very grim. the trends are in the wrong direction, the timescale is short, and a kyoto-style new agreement from 2012 is unlikely to make much difference to the underlying (upwards) trends in emissions. without a fundamental rethink, we are likely to be doomed to significant increases in emissions, and the corresponding uncertain warming of the climate. the science suggests that it is probably more likely than not that rapid climate change will result later in the century with potentially quite catastrophic results. recognition of this likely outcome from the current approach to climate-change negotiations and policies is the first step to finding a more palatable outcome. the starting point is the economics of climate change--the title of the stern report. the core elements of that report have become the new conventional wisdom of climate change--and all three of the main ones are open to serious challenge. the damage is likely to be much greater than the numbers generated by assuming that there is a straight substitution between environmental and man-made capital, and that therefore economic growth can continue indefinitely adding to our wealth and consumption possibilities as long as man-made capital is created faster than the environment is depleted. the costs of mitigation are likely to be higher too--if only because the stern report assumes away policy costs. zero time preference may be an admirable moral principle (though contentious even as a moral principle), but it is not reflected in behaviour, nor likely to be so. thus the case for urgent action--the stern report's recommendation--needs to be grounded on an economics which presents the problem of climate change to the politicians and the public in more robust terms--by analysing the consequences of a harder constraint on the substitutability of the environment for man-made capital, and with cost assumptions based upon empirically observed data rather than idealized technical supply functions. these jointly reduce the growth rate which is likely as global warming continues and mitigation measures are put in place, and it is this consequence rather than an idealized time-preference rate which dictates the case for urgent action. having recast the economics of the problem of climate change, the next step is to analyse the problem of international negotiations in terms of consumption rather than production--to get the accounting sorted out. the consequence is that, for developed countries, it is not only that the costs of mitigation will be (significantly) higher, but the amount required will be higher, too. this representation of the nature of the problem and assignment of responsibility will initially make the process of gaining an international agreement at copenhagen harder to achieve. but a kyoto-based approach will, in any event, probably achieve agreement at the price of not making much meaningful progress towards addressing the underlying problem. this, in turn, opens the door to alternative approaches--including the couching of the negotiations themselves in an international context, with a new international institution, and thereby helping to internalize the endemic free-rider problems. it also opens up the possibility of bringing other
What is the dynamic state?
the dynamic state is the one in which there are mass accumulations of the constituent in the system
What are usually the the variable in a treatment plant?
the input flow and/or the input concentration are variable
dynamic state the steadystate istheoneinwhichtherearenoaccumulationsoftheconstituent in the system (or in the volume being analysed). thus, dc/dt 0, that is the concentration of the constituent is constant in the steady state, the input and output flows and concentrations are constant. there is a perfect equilibrium between the positive and the negative terms in the mass balance, which, when summed, lead to a zero value. in the design of wastewater treatment plants, it is more usual to use the simplified steady state equations. under these conditions, in which dc/dt 0, the mass balance is given by equation 8.20. 0 q c0 - q c rp. v - rc. v (8.20) the dynamic state is the one in which there are mass accumulations of the constituent in the system. hence, dc/dt = 0. the concentration of the constituent in the system is therefore variable with time and can increase or decrease, depending on the balance between the positive and negative terms. usually in a treatment plant, the input flow and/or the input concentration are variable, besides the possibility 330 basic principles of wastewater treatment
what is the experimentsof GCM?
gcm experiments show that there is no particular barrier to initiation of a snowball state at plausible co2 concentrations under neoproterozoic conditions. entry in a plausible co2 range does, however, depend crucially on the increase of albedo due to snow cover. moreover, recent simulations confirm earlier indications that dynamical ocean heat transport inhibits snowball glaciation and drives the co2 threshold for initiation to lower values; this subject has still not been extensively explored, and it is well within the bounds of possibility that ocean dynamic effects could drive the threshold to values that are geochemically difficult to attain
what is surface albedo?
surface albedo is a critical factor here, too, but beyond that, it looks as though deglaciating a neoproterozoic snowball through co2 accumulation alone would be difficult to accomplish
what are the states of waterbelt?
waterbelt states can certainly exist, from the standpoint of basic climate dynamics, but the question is whether they can be made compatible with the geological record. in particular, credible, quantitative modeling is needed to resolve the following issues
from the standpoint of basic climate dynamics, gcm experiments show that there is no particular barrier to initiation of a snowball state at plausible co2 concentrations under neoproterozoic conditions. entry in a plausible co2 range does, however, depend crucially on the increase of albedo due to snow cover. moreover, recent simulations confirm earlier indications that dynamical ocean heat transport inhibits snowball glaciation and drives the co2 threshold for initiation to lower values; this subject has still not been extensively explored, and it is well within the bounds of possibility that ocean dynamic effects could drive the threshold to values that are geochemically difficult to attain. finding a plausible way to get out of a snowball is more difficult. surface albedo is a critical factor here, too, but beyond that, it looks as though deglaciating a neoproterozoic snowball through co2 accumulation alone would be difficult to accomplish. this is certainly true if the cloud greenhouse effect is weak, but one cannot rule out a stronger cloud feedback on thermodynamic grounds alone, and that means it is important to come to some understanding of the nature of clouds in the cold, convective snowball regime. with only modest help from clouds, though, the mudball mechanism provides a viable exit strategy, although the hypothesis requires much further study. both the initiation and the deglaciation problems require a better understanding of the nature of the ice and snow surface--regarding its albedo and the hydrology of surface meltwater. there seems to be a prevailing notion that waterbelt states are the default hypothesis for neoproterozoic glaciation and that more extraordinary evidence should be required in support of a snowball than in support of a waterbelt. as a result, little effort has been expended on quantifying the biogeochemical consequences of a waterbelt. to us, the waterbelt seems, if anything, more implausible than a snowball because the idea that earth would sit on the precipice of global glaciation for millions of years without falling off defies credibility. waterbelt states can certainly exist, from the standpoint of basic climate dynamics, but the question is whether they can be made compatible with the geological record. in particular, credible, quantitative modeling is needed to resolve the following issues:
What is climate change going to be a major threat to?
climate change is predicted to become a major threat to biodiversity in the 21st century
Where is the evidence coming from?
drawing on evidence from paleoecological observations
Besides species, what other conclusion are applicable from the framework?
although much of the information reviewed is on species, our framework and conclusions are also applicable to ecosystems, habitats, ecological communities, and genetic diversity, whether terrestrial, marine, or fresh water
terence p. dawson,1stephen t. jackson,2joanna i. house,3iain colin prentice,3,4,5georgina m. mace4,6* climate change is predicted to become a major threat to biodiversity in the 21st century, but accurate predictions and effective solutions have proved difficult to formulate. alarming predictions have come from a rather narrow methodological base, but a new, integrated science of climate-change biodiversity assessment is emerging, based on multiple sources and approaches. drawing on evidence from paleoecological observations, recent phenological and microevolutionary responses, experiments, and computational models, we review the insights that different approaches bring to anticipating and managing the biodiversity consequences of climate change, including the extent of species ' natural resilience. we introduce a framework that uses information from different sources to identify vulnerability and to support the design of conservation responses. although much of the information reviewed is on species, our framework and conclusions are also applicable to ecosystems, habitats, ecological communities, and genetic diversity, whether terrestrial, marine, or fresh water.
What is the maximum amount of bichar that can be applied to field crops?
the maximum amount of biochar that can be applied to field crops has not yet been determined experimentally; however application rates as high as 50 t c ha-1 have shown crop yield improvements 30 
How is a biochar transported?
the biochar is transported from the pyrolysis facility to the farm by a heavy duty diesel truck
What is the assumed distance from farm to facility in this experiment?
the distance transported is the same as that from the farm to the facility, where 15 km is used as the baseline for comparisons
field application of biochar. the biochar is transported from the pyrolysis facility to the farm by a heavy duty diesel truck. the trip is assumed to be the backhaul from the biomass delivery for all feedstocks considered. the distance transported is the same as that from the farm to the facility, where 15 km is used as the baseline for comparisons. the biochar is applied to a corn field at a rate of 5 t c ha-1 29 ). the maximum amount of biochar that can be applied to field crops has not yet been determined experimentally; however application rates as high as 50 t c ha-1 have shown crop yield improvements 30 ). in fact, most plant species and soil conditions have not shown growth reductions even at applications of 140 t c ha-1, demonstrating the ability to continue adding biochar to soils for an extended period of time. the field application of the biochar is assumed to be similar to other soil amendment applications. the energy consumption related to biochar application equipment was taken from 31 ), where the diesel fuel consumption
How large is the sample
about 4500 days
When does rainfall peak
they peak in winter
Where was the model assumed
the extra-tropical part of the australian continent
tmin and d tmax than for pan evaporation and d tmin. for rainfall, correlations are by far the lowest, although due to the very large sample considered (about 4500 days); all these correlations are significant at least at the 95% level (based on rain occurrences only in the case of rainfall), indicating some level of skill. for most variables there is a marked seasonal cycle in skill, consistent across all regions: i.e. the analogue approach is particularly successful in autumn and spring for temperature predictands tmax and tmin (nearly reaching a correlation of 0.9 for tmax in autumn in several regions) and for pan evaporation (albeit with lower values). for rainfall, although correlations are low across all seasons, they peak in winter (between 0.3 and 0.4). for dew-point, seasonal variations of the results are less marked and not consistent across regions. finally, there seems to be a high consistency in the performance of the sdms across the six regions considered. overall no particular region stands out as a climatic entity where the sdm skill in reproducing day-to-day variability is consistently lower or higher across all variables and seasons. the fact that the model was assumed to be applicable in all the extra-tropical part of the australian continent where the climate is driven by synoptic disturbances is vindicated by these results. the ability of the modelled series to reproduce year-to-year variability is also important in a climate change context. it is evaluated by computing the pearson correlation between seasonal
What remains largely unknown?
the role played by soil fauna
climate and litter quality have been identified as major drivers of litter decomposition at large spatial scales. however, the role played by soil fauna remains largely unknown, despite its importance for litter fragmentation and microbial activity. we synthesised litterbag studies to quantify the effect sizes of soil fauna on litter decomposition rates at the global and biome scales, and to assess how climate, litter quality and soil fauna interact to determine such rates. soil fauna consistently enhanced litter decomposition at both global and biome scales (average increment 27%). however, climate and litter quality differently modulated the effects of soil fauna on decomposition rates between biomes, from climate-driven biomes to those where climate effects were mediated by changes in litter quality. our results advocate for the inclusion of biomespecific soil fauna effects on litter decomposition as a mean to reduce the unexplained variation in largescale decomposition models. keywords carbon dynamics, climate, litter c n ratio, litter decomposition, litter quality, meta-analysis, soil fauna.
Which piece of literature examines issues of governance, power, and knowledge?
first body of work broadly termed 'society and accountancy' examines issues of governance, power and knowledge
What does the literature that includes the concept of epistemic community examine?
the policy network concept of 'epistemic community' is used to examine the nature of accounting expertise and its application to policy change
How are the different perspectives in the literature viewed?
however, we view these different perspectives as complementary, rather than conflicting
conceptualising carbon accounting potentially cuts across a number of different theories and bodies of research. there is a range of relevant literatures to draw upon which offer useful insights into how and why accountants might be framing themselves as good and 'rightful' managers of carbon. here we briefly consider three literatures judged to be most relevant. the first body of work broadly termed 'society and accountancy' examines issues of governance, power and knowledge (political economy approaches); the history of accountancy; and also ethnography or anthropology of the practices and culture of accountancy (hopwood and miller 1994; mackenzie 2006). second, we turn to the notion of governmentality to explore the relationship between discourse and practice or 'techniques' in effecting power and authority. third, the policy network concept of 'epistemic community' is used to examine the nature of accounting expertise and its application to policy change. 6 6 these reviews are necessarily brief: it is not the authors' intention to provide a full summary, but rather to consider how they might lend insight to the work of financial accountants in relation to climate change. for this reason we limit our attention to ideas from these literatures about calculation, measurement and expertise: who defines the problem and its solutions (a process necessarily involving forms of measurement and calculation), and how they generate the authority and capability to do so. we note at the outset that these literatures have different framings and conceptions of what is most important to study, eg for governmentality it is the day-to-day practices and techniques of government, whereas the notion of epistemic communities is more concerned with how particular groups of experts bring about change. however, we view these different perspectives as complementary, rather than conflicting.
What has this work provided a review on?
this work has provided a review of the present state of knowledge regarding the role of biomass burning in influencing climate, the role of climate in influencing biomass burning and the tools available to observe and predict biomass burning emissions
In addition to the aspects reviewed from question one, what else does this work touch on?
policy and management practices that influence biomass burning emissions have also been briefly touched on
What do the results of this review display?
this review has clearly documented that biomass burning results in the emission of ghg and aerosol to the atmosphere and that in some instances these emissions can be as significant (or more significant than) emissions from industrial activity
this work has provided a review of the present state of knowledge regarding the role of biomass burning in influencing climate, the role of climate in influencing biomass burning and the tools available to observe and predict biomass burning emissions. policy and management practices that influence biomass burning emissions have also been briefly touched on. this review has clearly documented that biomass burning results in the emission of ghg and aerosol to the atmosphere and that in some instances these emissions can be as significant (or more significant than) emissions from industrial activity (e.g., 1997/1998 el ni~no indonesian peat fires). this review has
What is the detection?
detection is the process of demonstrating that climate has changed in some defined statistical sense. thus detection seeks to determine whether observed data indicate that climate is changing or are simply consistent with possible fluctuations from natural internal variability of the ocean atmosphere system. figure 1 shows an example of a detection analysis. a 'control' simulation of a coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model over many centuries, with no changes in the external drivers of climate such as increases in greenhouse gas concentrations or in solar output, does not exhibit the sustained rise in temperatures seen in the observational data
What do the statistics say?
a statistical test shows that the 50-year global warming trend observed from 1959 to 2008 is detected at the 5% significance level, as there is a less than 5% likelihood of such a large trend due to internal variability alone, according to the control simulation
What kind of estimates are required?
multicentury long estimates of natural internal variability from models are needed because equivalent estimates cannot be obtained from observational data, in part because the instrumental record is too short to yield the reliable estimates of internal variability that are required for detection and attribution, and in part because the observational record is not free from the effects of external influences. however, observational data are used to evaluate the internal variability produced by climate models over decadal and multidecadal timescales (see ref 2 for further discussion
detection is the process of demonstrating that climate has changed in some defined statistical sense. thus detection seeks to determine whether observed data indicate that climate is changing or are simply consistent with possible fluctuations from natural internal variability of the ocean atmosphere system. figure 1 shows an example of a detection analysis. a 'control' simulation of a coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model over many centuries, with no changes in the external drivers of climate such as increases in greenhouse gas concentrations or in solar output, does not exhibit the sustained rise in temperatures seen in the observational data. a statistical test shows that the 50-year global warming trend observed from 1959 to 2008 is detected at the 5% significance level, as there is a less than 5% likelihood of such a large trend due to internal variability alone, according to the control simulation. multicentury long estimates of natural internal variability from models are needed because equivalent estimates cannot be obtained from observational data, in part because the instrumental record is too short to yield the reliable estimates of internal variability that are required for detection and attribution, and in part because the observational record is not free from the effects of external influences. however, observational data are used to evaluate the internal variability produced by climate models over decadal and multidecadal timescales (see ref 2 for further discussion).
What is the human perception of climatic events biased by?
human perception of climatic events such as the frequency of "white christmas" or the fact that "in the past, snow was more abundant than today" are biased by a relatively short collective memory
What can one particular notable event trigger?
in addition, it is often the case that one particularly notable event (e.g., a severe snowstorm or an unusual accumulation of snow) triggers the perception that these events are the norm
Where did the data used in the present study come from?
in the present study, climatological data from the swiss meteorological service, meteoswiss (bantle, 1989) have been used
human perception of climatic events such as the frequency of "white christmas" or the fact that "in the past, snow was more abundant than today" are biased by a relatively short collective memory. in addition, it is often the case that one particularly notable event (e.g., a severe snowstorm or an unusual accumulation of snow) triggers the perception that these events are the norm. another popular belief is that there has been a shift in the seasonality of snow in the alps, with the season beginning later in the year, but also ending later in the spring. a genuine shift in the timing of the snow season or a decrease in the quantity of snow would indeed have significant repercussions upon many natural and socio-economic systems. indeed, if the general perception of stakeholders is based on misconceptions rather than on facts, then certain long-term economic or policy decisions (for example, regarding investments for ski-lift infrastructure) may be taken in an inappropriate manner. in the present study, climatological data from the swiss meteorological service, meteoswiss (bantle, 1989) have been used. figure 1 shows the location of the 18 observational sites in switzerland that were used, where snow data is available in digital form since at least 1960. these climatological stations span a range of altitudes from 300 - 2500 m above sea level, as given by the inset that shows the altitudinal distribution of the stations selected for this investigation. it should be emphasized that the best available data has been used here, but that the quality of some of the information may be somewhat open to question, thus requiring caution in the data interpretation and analyses that follow. raw data has been employed in the present study, principally because if similar studies were to be conducted elsewhere, to check the consistency of results with those reported here, it is unlikely that data from other regions would be homogenous. over the years, site changes may have biased some of the results; for example, the davos observing site has undergone a shift in geographical location in the 1970s, while the highelevation santis site is located at a mountain summit, where strong winds and nearby constructions may perturb the snow records. however, as will be seen later, the overall conclusions would not change significantly from those reported in this study, even if data were homogenous or if sites were free of site-specific characteristics that interfere with measurements. it may be further argued that there is a large heterogeneity in the geographic distribution of the measurement sites, with site-specific characteristics that would be capable of biasing climatological statistics. however, experience with the data has shown that, when considering medium to long-term averages, the local biases tend to be removed and the spatial heterogeneity is no longer an obstacle to considering data from the different observational sites simultaneously. moreover, jungo and beniston (2001) have shown through cluster analysis that, despite individual site heterogeneity, there is a close resemblance between climatological variables in different parts of switzerland, particularly on an altitudinal basis. finally, the observational sites located on the southern slopes of the swiss alps facing italy have not been considered in the present analysis. this is because the particular climatic regimes in this part of the alpine chain are closely governed by mediterranean influences. these have a distinctly different character to the regimes influencing the north of the alps; mediterranean air masses spill over only occasionally into the mountains themselves or to the lowlands north of the alps. insert figure 1 here 2.2. shifts in the snow season an example of the distribution of snow amount on a seasonal basis is given for the site of arosa in figure 2, which uses a hovmoller-type rendering. the large variations in snow amount and
What is CO2 emissions?
within 5 years, china's co2 emissions have nearly doubled, and china may already be the world's largest emitter of co2. evidence suggests that exports could be a main cause for the rise in chinese co2 emissions; however, no systematic study has analyzed this issue, especially over time
What is carbon leakage?
it is likely that consumption in the developed world is driving this trend. a majority of these emissions have largely escaped the scrutiny of arguments over "carbon leakage" due to the current, narrow definition of leakage
Export Emission Description?
climate policies which would make the developed world responsible for china's export emissions have both benefits and costs, and must be carefully designed to achieve political consensus and equity. whoever is responsible for these emissions, china's
within 5 years, china's co2 emissions have nearly doubled, and china may already be the world's largest emitter of co2. evidence suggests that exports could be a main cause for the rise in chinese co2 emissions; however, no systematic study has analyzed this issue, especially over time. we find that in 2005, around one third of chinese emissions (1700 mt co2) were due to production of exports, and this proportion has risen from 12% (230 mt) in 1987 and only 21% (760 mt) as recently as 2002. it is likely that consumption in the developed world is driving this trend. a majority of these emissions have largely escaped the scrutiny of arguments over "carbon leakage" due to the current, narrow definition of leakage. climate policies which would make the developed world responsible for china's export emissions have both benefits and costs, and must be carefully designed to achieve political consensus and equity. whoever is responsible for these emissions, china's
How is the temperature fluctuation calculated?
we calculated the range in average minimum and maximum temperatures to broadly characterize the magnitude of temperature fluctuations at each point
How are the potential changes in vegetation distributions modeled?
to do this, we constructed and evaluated niche models reflecting current climate conditions for each vegetation type of interest, using 30% of randomly selected locations where the vegetation is mapped within the study area
using arcgis 9.1 software (2005, esri, redlands), we created a grid of 30 172 points ('map points') spaced 1 km apart encompassing the southern california study area. for each map point centered within a 1 km  1 km cell, we calculated environmental variables from various digital source layers (table 1). we extracted the environmental variables for each map point at which quino checkerspot and california gnatcatcher were detected, and these values became the habitat data in the calibration and validation datasets. to characterize important aspects of the climate, we selected minimum average january and maximum average july temperatures; these two variables represent temperature extremes in our study area that could limit a species distribution. we calculated the range in average minimum and maximum temperatures to broadly characterize the magnitude of temperature fluctuations at each point. we used average annual precipitation to describe rainfall. it was unnecessary to separate out winter from summer precipitation periods, as essentially all rain in the study area occurs from late fall through early spring, with little or no rain during the summer. modeling biotic relationships. a typical method of including biotic variables in niche models is to calculate for every map point the proportion of different vegetation types within a defined area using a vegetation map. however, vegetation distributions will change under altered climate conditions. thus, to include biotic relationships in niche models reflecting altered climate conditions, it is necessary to model potential changes in vegetation distributions as well. to do this, we constructed and evaluated niche models reflecting current climate conditions for each vegetation type of interest, using 30% of randomly selected locations where the vegetation is mapped within the study area. using the vegetation niche models calibrated for current climate conditions, we calculated new hsi values reflecting altered climate conditions to identify potential habitat under different temperature and precipitation levels. for each dataset characterizing altered climate conditions, a vegetation-type hsi value is included as the variable characterizing suitable habitat for that vegetation type under those altered climate conditions. we can evaluate how well-modeled vegetation variables perform in quino checkerspot and california gnatcatcher niche models by comparing them with niche models, using extant vegetation variables derived from a vegetation map reflecting current climate conditions. similarly, niche models were constructed for individual plant species for which there were sufficient presence-only data available. we created models for five coastal sage scrub shrub species and for two larval host plants for the butterfly. host plants have been shown to affect macroecological distributions of butterfly species and can be important in assessing distributional shifts under climate change forecasts (arau'jo luoto, 2007).
According to Rist , what is development?
development' is related to the broader idea of the progressive improvement of human societies (rist, 2008
What was the goat of development effort during the post World War II era?
the post-world war ii era has been one of organised development efforts, the goal of which is intimately linked with modernisation (kingsbury, 2007
What were the characteristics of development paradigms established in the 1950s and predominant for the subsequent two decades ?
development paradigms established in the 1950s and predominant for the subsequent two decades shared three characteristics: (i) the treatment of the third world and its inhabitants as an homogenous entity; (ii) the application of an unconditional belief in the concept of progress and the possibility of creating society through universally applicable processes; and (iii) a conviction that the nation-state is essential in order to realise progress (schuurman, 2000
the meaning of 'development' in both theory and practice has been discussed and critiqued for several decades. 'development' is related to the broader idea of the progressive improvement of human societies (rist, 2008). the post-world war ii era has been one of organised development efforts, the goal of which is intimately linked with modernisation (kingsbury, 2007). over the last half-century, policies and programmes have shifted significantly as development approaches have been challenged and modified. development paradigms established in the 1950s and predominant for the subsequent two decades shared three characteristics: (i) the treatment of the third world and its inhabitants as an homogenous entity; (ii) the application of an unconditional belief in the concept of progress and the possibility of creating society through universally applicable processes; and (iii) a conviction that the nation-state is essential in order to realise progress (schuurman, 2000). but the roots of the developmentalist approach are far deeper than this, emerging from western philosophical discourses, based on two main assumptions or philosophical positions that underpin the idea of modernity. the most important of these assumptions is that modern human societies are continuing a process of advancement, driven by endogenous factors such as technological, economic and political innovation. this process is thought to have started in the palaeolithic period, ultimately resulting in development futures in the context of climate change 743 development futures in the context of climate change 743
What is Climate trend ?
climate trends are weather, averaged out over time usually 30 years
What are Freeman Dyson Climate models ?
freeman dyson climate models are mathematical representations of the interactions between the atmosphere, oceans, land surface, ice - and the sun
what the science says: models successfully reproduce temperatures since 1900 globally, by land, in the air and the ocean. climate myth: models are unreliable "[models] are full of fudge factors that are fitted to the existing climate, so the models more or less agree with the observed data. but there is no reason to believe that the same fudge factors would give the right behaviour in a world with different chemistry, for example in a world with increased co2 in the atmosphere." freeman dyson climate models are mathematical representations of the interactions between the atmosphere, oceans, land surface, ice - and the sun. this is clearly a very complex task, so models are built to estimate trends rather than events. for example, a climate model can tell you it will be cold in winter, but it can't tell you what the temperature will be on a specific day - that's weather forecasting. climate trends are weather, averaged out over time usually 30 years. trends are important because they eliminate or "smooth out" single events that may be extreme, but quite rare. climate models have to be tested to find out if they work. we can't wait for 30 years to see if a model is any good or not; models are tested against the past, against what we know happened. if a model can correctly predict trends from a starting point somewhere in the past, we could expect it to predict with reasonable certainty what might happen in the future. so all models are first tested in a process called hindcasting the models used to predict future global warming can accurately map past climate changes. if they get the past right, there is no reason to think their predictions would be wrong. testing models against the existing instrumental record suggested co2 must cause global warming, because the models could not simulate what had already happened unless the extra co2 was added to the model. all other known forcings are adequate in explaining temperature variations prior to the rise in temperature over the last thirty years, while none of them are capable of explaining the rise in the past thirty years. co2 does explain that rise, and explains it completely without any need for additional, as yet unknown forcings. where models have been running for sufficient time, they have also been proved to make accurate predictions. for example, the eruption of mt. pinatubo allowed modellers to test the accuracy of models by feeding in the data about the eruption. the models successfully predicted the climatic response after the eruption. models also correctly predicted other effects subsequently confirmed by observation, including greater warming in the arctic and over land, greater warming at night, and stratospheric cooling. the climate models, far from being melodramatic, may be conservative in the predictions they produce. for example, here's a graph of sea level rise:
Why only three general tools? Can more than three tools be used?
we introduce three general tools that facilitate the interpretation of fire history from sediment-charcoal records
What is the third tool?
we introduce three general tools that facilitate the interpretation of fire history from sediment-charcoal records
How are these criteria's consistent?
these criteria are consistent with a mechanistic
interpreting sediment charcoal records and detecting changes in fire regimes we introduce three general tools that facilitate the interpretation of fire history from sediment-charcoal records. first, the signal-to-noise index provides a semiobjective way to judge if a record is appropriate for peak analysis. for example, while 0.8 in most records, sni values were consistently 0.5 for the 8000 - 0 yr bp in the xindi lake record (data not shown), indicating that this section was not suitable for peak identification. second, our use of a gaussian mixture model to determine threshold values for peak identification allowed us to treat all charcoal records with one set of semi-objective criteria. these criteria are consistent with a mechanistic
how big is choreography?
choreography is concerned with dance which is a common practice across all human societies
What do you think would be the best solution for the given circumstances?
we thus need to invent new social technologies better suited to our circumstances
What would be the next step after said invention?
in the next chapter i explore the opportunities that investment in 'systemic inquiry' might create
choreography is concerned with dance which is a common practice across all human societies. significantly dance is one of the most obvious of embodied practices and in the doing and observing (as part of an audience) its emotional flow is readily apparent. in reflecting on the sensibilities of her parents (gregory bateson and margaret mead) mary catherine bateson observed that 'both margaret and gregory grew up to regard the arts as higher and more challenging than the sciences. this sense of humility in relation to the arts lasted right through their lives' 3 unfortunately the realisation of an holistic artistic practice, in the sense imagined by mary catherine bateson, is significantly constrained by a misplaced targets cul ture, the uncritical acceptance of projectification, our collective failure to be open to circumstance and its contingent nature, as evidenced by inadequate awareness of the choice we make or do not make in framing situations, and the self-imposed apart heid we place on the role of emotions in our doings. these all combine to both create a need for systems practice but at the same time make the circumstances for its uptake and enactment less than conducive. we thus need to invent new social technologies better suited to our circumstances. in the next chapter i explore the opportunities that investment in 'systemic inquiry' might create.
What does Figure 9.1 show?
figure 9.1 shows the mean comfort vote of subjects from a field surveys plotted against the mean temperature recorded over the period of the survey
What is one method used widely to investigate conditions?
one method that has been widely used to investigate the conditions we find comfortable is the field study
What can we measure over a period of time?
over a period of time the way in which the subjective responses change can be related to these measured physical conditions
one method that has been widely used to investigate the conditions we find comfortable is the field study. take a group of subjects who are going about their normal everyday lives and ask them how hot they feel on a scale, such as those shown in table 9.2 (i.e. their ' comfort vote ' ). at the same time, the physical environment (temperature, humidity, air movement) is measured. over a period of time the way in which the subjective responses change can be related to these measured physical conditions. figure 9.1 shows the mean comfort vote of subjects from a field surveys plotted against the mean temperature recorded over the period of the survey. the rate of change of comfort vote with temperature is much lower from one survey to another than it is within any particular survey. the reasons for this observation from field surveys have been the subject of considerable speculation and research, most of which has concentrated on the context in which field surveys
What drives several ecosystem functions?
terrestrial gross primary production (gpp) is the largest global co2 flux driving several ecosystem functions
What is used to provide an estimate for the flux at 123 T 8 petagrams of carbon per year (Pg C year- 1)?
we provide an observation-based estimate of this flux at 123 t 8 petagrams of carbon per year (pg c year- 1) using eddy covariance flux data and various diagnostic models
Name one model used for climate predictions
state-of-the-art process-oriented biosphere models used for climate predictions exhibit a large between-model variation of gpp ' s latitudinal patterns and show higher spatial correlations between gpp and precipitation, suggesting the existence of missing processes or feedback mechanisms which attenuate the vegetation response to climate
terrestrial gross primary production (gpp) is the largest global co2 flux driving several ecosystem functions. we provide an observation-based estimate of this flux at 123 t 8 petagrams of carbon per year (pg c year- 1) using eddy covariance flux data and various diagnostic models. tropical forests and savannahs account for 60%. gpp over 40% of the vegetated land is associated with precipitation. state-of-the-art process-oriented biosphere models used for climate predictions exhibit a large between-model variation of gpp ' s latitudinal patterns and show higher spatial correlations between gpp and precipitation, suggesting the existence of missing processes or feedback mechanisms which attenuate the vegetation response to climate. our estimates of spatially distributed gpp and its covariation with climate can help improve coupled climate - carbon cycle process models.
In which ocean does cloud-phase feedback is sensitive to higher initial-state SLFs?
cloud-phase feedback is particularly sensitive to higher initial-state slfs over the pristine southern ocean in the observationally constrained cases
According to passage, what will improve accuracy of ECS estimates?
looking forward, continued improvements of the accuracy of various observational methods, better understanding of mixed-phase cloud processes, and their improved representation in gcms are all factors that are critical to improving the accuracy of ecs estimates
caliop-slf1 (fig. 3d), caliop-slf2 (fig. 3e), and high-slf (fig. 3f). it is worth noting that the cloud-phase feedback is particularly sensitive to higher initial-state slfs over the pristine southern ocean in the observationally constrained cases. underestimates of slfs relative to observations in this region 30 lead to an artificially stronger cloud-phase feedback that can ultimately lead to an underestimate of ecs. the negative lt values over the tropical pacific are attributed to the thickening of high clouds 27 ). global satellite observations of cloud thermodynamic phases have enabled us to show that unrealistically low slfs common to a multitude of gcms lead to a cloud-phase feedback that is too negative. this has important ramifications for ecs estimates. should the low-slf bias be eliminated in gcms, the most likely range of ecs should shift to higher values. it should be noted that there are variations in the way in which microphysical processes are parameterized in gcms. thus, the method by which slfs can be constrained in gcms is not unique, and a repeat of this study in other gcms may thus lead to other climate feedback responses that are not captured by the gcm used in this study. however, regardless of how slfs are constrained, the slf will affect the magnitude of the cloud-phase feedback and therefore gcms ' estimates of ecs. looking forward, continued improvements of the accuracy of various observational methods, better understanding of mixed-phase cloud processes, and their improved representation in gcms are all factors that are critical to improving the accuracy of ecs estimates.
Who officially commissioned the review?
the review was officially commissioned when british chancellor of the exchequer gordon brown "asked sir nick stern to lead a major review of the economics of climate change, to understand more comprehensively the nature of the economic challenges and how they can be met, in the uk and globally
What does it desribe accurately?
for the most part, it accurately describes the basic economic questions involved in global warming
What studies and findings does it tend to emphasize?
it tends to emphasize studies and findings that support its policy recommendations, while reports with opposing views of the dangers of global warming are ignored
first, the review should be read primarily as a document that is political in nature and has advocacy as its purpose. the review was officially commissioned when british chancellor of the exchequer gordon brown "asked sir nick stern to lead a major review of the economics of climate change, to understand more comprehensively the nature of the economic challenges and how they can be met, in the uk and globally."10 the scientific ground rules of government reports produced by professional scientists and economists are not codified. my vantage point, having been both producer and consumer of government reports, is that we expect them to be factually correct, present a professionally accurate representation of the technical scientific issues, support the government's policies, but not necessarily to be a textbook with a balanced view of all competing theories. by this definition of the ground rules, the review fits well within the boundaries. for the most part, it accurately describes the basic economic questions involved in global warming. however, it tends to emphasize studies and findings that support its policy recommendations, while reports with opposing views of the dangers of global warming are ignored. such are the rules of the game, but we should be alert in reading the review that - even though it was published by a university press - it is not standard academic analysis.
How would affect mid-latitude cyclone frequency predict the air quality?
we would expect mid-latitude cyclone frequency to also be a good predictor of particulate matter (pm) air quality, which is similarly affected by stagnation, but further analysis using pm observational records is necessary. also, our analysis has focused on the eastern u.s., but similar analyses would be of value for western europe and china, where mid-latitudes cyclones are also major agents for pollutant ventilation (liu et al., 2003; ordonez et al., 2005
How about in US, what are the results?
we have found in the eastern u.s. that although mid-latitude cyclone frequency is a good predictor of pollution episodes in the northeast and midwest, it is less effective in the south
What about the West of the US?
other large-scale meteorological metrics should be sought there and in the west to enable assessments of the effect of climate change on air quality
our analysis has focused on ozone air quality because of the availability of long-term records with high spatial density. we would expect mid-latitude cyclone frequency to also be a good predictor of particulate matter (pm) air quality, which is similarly affected by stagnation, but further analysis using pm observational records is necessary. also, our analysis has focused on the eastern u.s., but similar analyses would be of value for western europe and china, where mid-latitudes cyclones are also major agents for pollutant ventilation (liu et al., 2003; ordonez et al., 2005). we have found in the eastern u.s. that although mid-latitude cyclone frequency is a good predictor of pollution episodes in the northeast and midwest, it is less effective in the south. other large-scale meteorological metrics should be sought there and in the west to enable assessments of the effect of climate change on air quality.
Which effects are longer lasting; sulfate aerosol or GHG?
nevertheless the residence time of sulfate aerosol in the atmosphere is a few days whereas the residence time of ghg such as co2 is a few decades
In what way do sulfatre aerosols and GHG affect atmospheric conditions?
they reflect solar radiation (direct effect) and they modify cloud radiative properties (indirect effects
Are the impacts of sulfate aerosols and GHG expected to remain static?
therefore the relative importance of sulfate aerosols and ghg on climate change may vary with time
sulfate aerosols are currently the second most important anthropogenic forcing for the climate after the greenhouse gases (ghg) ramaswamy et al. 2001]. they reflect solar radiation (direct effect) and they modify cloud radiative properties (indirect effects). they have a strong cooling effect that has partly canceled the climate warming due to ghg increase during the 20th century. nevertheless the residence time of sulfate aerosol in the atmosphere is a few days whereas the residence time of ghg such as co2 is a few decades. moreover, the indirect effect of sulfate aerosols is a very non-linear function of aerosol burden [e.g., boucher and pham 2002]. therefore the relative importance of sulfate aerosols and ghg on climate change may vary with time. here we explore this question by performing simulations with a climate model, some of which differ only by their sulfate aerosol concentrations.
Using baseline emissions intensity estimates, what does the emission reductions associated with the reduction in demand do?
underestimates the true emissions reductions and overestimates the cost that would result if process changes and other substitution possibilities were modeled as they presumably are in eia's analysis
What is the total cost of policy?
the sum of the resource cost and the allowance value
What does the CO2 price lead to?
demand reduction and a consumer surplus loss estimated under linear demand curves with own-price elasticities
the co2 price leads to demand reduction and a consumer surplus loss estimated under linear demand curves with own-price elasticities reported in table 1. using baseline emissions intensity estimates, the emission reductions associated with the reduction in demand underestimates the true emissions reductions and overestimates the cost that would result if process changes and other substitution possibilities were modeled as they presumably are in eia's analysis. thus to match eia's cost estimate outside the electricity sector, we scale the consumer surplus losses to the sum of the resource cost and the allowance value, which is the total cost of the policy, across all non-electricity goods.10 10 10 this exercise does not materially affect our distributional findings. it does, however, provide for cost numbers that have meaning in the policy debate and can be compared to estimates by others of the costs to households of cap and trade policy.
in the two model specifications, what does not appear to be correlated with energy efficiency programs?
in these two model specifications, coal and natural gas production does not appear to be correlated with energy efficiency programs
What will the path analysis conducted do?
a path analysis conducted below will illuminate the extent to which coal and gas production may have an indirect effect on state energy program adoption
What did the results suggest?
these results suggest that states may adopt climate change policies in order to address other environmental concerns; however, results for this parameter are not robust across the two specifications. in the ols specification, the parameter estimate on criteria air pollutants is large, positive, and significant, with a p-value of 0.08 and a parameter estimate indicating that a one ton increase of criteria air pollutants per capita leads to an increase of 5.5 energy policy programs. the negative binomial specification, while positive, is not statistically significant at any reasonable alpha value
in these two model specifications, coal and natural gas production does not appear to be correlated with energy efficiency programs. this lack of significance for this parameter is likely due to the strong collinearity between coal and natural gas production and carbon dioxide (co2) intensity. if either co2 intensity or coal and gas per capita are dropped from the model, either variable becomes statistically significant and negative, demonstrating states' desires to protect local industries and a decrease in the likelihood of implementing climate change mitigation programs, all other factors remaining constant. a path analysis conducted below will illuminate the extent to which coal and gas production may have an indirect effect on state energy program adoption. these findings support the idea that state policy adoption is heavily influenced by political considerations. these results suggest that states may adopt climate change policies in order to address other environmental concerns; however, results for this parameter are not robust across the two specifications. in the ols specification, the parameter estimate on criteria air pollutants is large, positive, and significant, with a p-value of 0.08 and a parameter estimate indicating that a one ton increase of criteria air pollutants per capita leads to an increase of 5.5 energy policy programs. the negative binomial specification, while positive, is not statistically significant at any reasonable alpha value. the negative parameter estimate for wind potential is surprising, and these estimates and low t -statistics indicate that wind potential may be nearly independent of energy legislation. wind potential may be unrelated to climate change policies because of the types of states that have wind potential. frequently, these states are rural, sparsely populated states, putting the wind resources geographically removed from load centers. states such as north and south dakota are outliers in this group with huge amounts of wind potential that dwarf other states' wind potentials; however, these states have few climate change policies. even with our controls for the other economic and political factors, these states are likely to drive the results for the wind potential parameter. nevertheless, these results demonstrate that states with high wind potentials do not seem to be taking advantage of this abundant energy resource. the positive parameter estimate for solar density suggests that, in contrast to wind potential, states with high solar potential may be taking advantage of their geographic endowments. however, this result is not significant at a reasonable alpha value. a renewables index was created in order to aggregate solar density and wind potential, in order to reduce downward bias introduced by using both measurements to predict average effects across states. this measure is positive across both models, though not statistically significant. the statistical insignificance of many of the parameters, coupled with the highly significant model and high r2indicates that many of these variables--and in particular the co2 intensity, criteria emissions, and coal and gas production measurements--may be capturing similar concepts. indeed, when constructing this model, other related variables such as environmental groups per capita and energy consumption per capita were dropped in order to reduce this collinearity and improve the statistical significance of the variables that remained included in the
What are the static are used?
in both modes of operation two sets of statistics are compared. in the first, the statistics of the simulated climate are compared with those of the observed climate, or sometimes with those of another simulated climate. in the second mode of experimentation, the statistics obtained in the run with anomalous conditions are compared with those from the run with the control conditions
Which one is act as a mask?
the true signal (excited by the prescribed change in boundary conditions, parameterization, etc.) or the true model error is masked by random variations
What are the different between field?
the mean difference field between an observed distribution and its simulated counterpart will exhibit, possibly large scale, features, even if the model is perfect
in both modes of operation two sets of statistics are compared. in the first, the statistics of the simulated climate are compared with those of the observed climate, or sometimes with those of another simulated climate. in the second mode of experimentation, the statistics obtained in the run with anomalous conditions are compared with those from the run with the control conditions. the simulated atmospheric circulation is turbulent as is that of the real atmosphere (see section 1.1). therefore the true signal (excited by the prescribed change in boundary conditions, parameterization, etc.) or the true model error is masked by random variations. even when the modifications in the experimental run have no effect on the simulated climate, the difference field will be nonzero and will show structure reflecting the random variations in the control and experimental runs. similarly, the mean difference field between an observed distribution and its simulated counterpart will exhibit, possibly large scale, features, even if the model is perfect.
What activity has substantially reduced the river's natural flow?
the river's natural flow has been substantially reduced by extensive water use for domestic, industrial and agricultural purposes
the orange-senqu river basin is characterized by highly variable hydroclimatic conditions, with strong aridity in the western parts of the basin, marked rainfall seasonality and, in many areas, a relatively short rainfall season<s245>32. the river's natural flow has been substantially reduced by extensive water use for domestic, industrial and agricultural purposes. the river has been highly developed for water extractions and storage that includes 31 major dams as well as numerous large interand intrabasin transfer schemes. irrigation consumption accounts for about one-third of the total runoff whereas evaporation from storages plus growth of riparian vegetation appropriates less than 20% of the total runoff<s245>33. the ecologically significant orange river mouth is a ramsar site that was listed on the montreux record of sites undergoing detrimental changes in ecological character due, in part, to declining environmental flows<s245>34. the orange-senqu has acute water-quality challenges that are a result of industrial and agricultural activities depleting flows<s245>35. poor water quality imposes direct human costs on downstream users due to increased water purification costs, decreased agricultural productivity and loss of water for dilution purposes. these costs are especially high for poor communities that lack adequate water treatments and alternative water sources, and also have a deleterious impact on riverine habitats and ecosystem health.
What does ?the analysis of isotope ratios of heavy noble gases in the atmospheres of Earth and Mars suggests
the analysis of isotope ratios of heavy noble gases in the atmospheres of earth and mars suggests that much of the planets' volatiles could have been supplied by comets
From where does the impingement of the solar wind can strip gases
the impingement of the solar wind can strip gases directly from the upper atmosphere
what processes might have caused the inferred changes in noachian climate, what sinks were available for atmospheric gases during this epoch, and can we infer the degree to which each process acted? these are especially important issues, as the output of the sun was some 30% less 4 gyr ago than it is today38, making the maintenance of an early warmer climate more difficult39,40. impact of large asteroids through the noachian epoch would have ejected gas in the atmosphere to space41. although inherently capable of removing large amounts of atmosphere, only those impacts occurring since the time of the onset of the geological record would have resulted in climate change that can be inferred from that record42. we know how many impacts occurred, based on the number of large craters and impact basins seen on the ancient terrain, and can readily extrapolate to impacts on areas subsequently buried43. combined, impacts are likely to have ejected about 50-90% of the atmosphere present in the early epoch42. this fraction probably is an upper limit, as some volatiles (such as water) might not have resided exclusively in the atmosphere at this time or might have been outgassed late in the epoch. recent measurements of surface elevation have allowed identification of previously unknown impact basins buried below a relatively thin veneer in both the southern highlands and the northern plains43. the buried craters in the northern plains have similar abundance to the craters in the southern highlands, and justify the extrapolation of southern-hemisphere craters to a global inventory. the buried southernhighlands craters predate the geological evidence pertaining to the early climate, so those impacts would not have contributed to the changes in climate and should not be counted in summing up atmospheric loss. impacts of volatile-rich objects can supply new volatiles to mars as well as remove them from the atmosphere44. in particular, the analysis of isotope ratios of heavy noble gases in the atmospheres of earth and mars suggests that much of the planets' volatiles could have been supplied by comets45. but the relative roles of supply and removal of volatiles by impacts is unknown. the impingement of the solar wind can strip gases directly from the upper atmosphere. both atom-on-atom collisions that eject individual molecules (pick-up-ion sputtering) and hydrodynamic collisions that could strip off large volumes of gas en masse would have been important46,47. but theoretical models of these processes are exceedingly uncertain even at the present epoch, and extrapolating to past epochs when the solar wind and solar ultraviolet radiation were more intense48
The efficiency of a septic tank  is what?
anaerobic filter is usually less compared with fully aerobic systems
The sludge production is?
very low
The dewaterability of the sludge is ?
very good
the efficiency of a septic tank - anaerobic filter is usually less compared with fully aerobic systems, although in most situations sufficient. the system has been widely used for small populations, but there has been a trend in terms of anaerobic treatment favouring the use of anaerobic sludge blanket reactors (described below). sludge production in anaerobic systems is very low. the excess sludge is already digested and can godirectlytodewatering(inthissystem,typicallybydryingbeds). 200 to wastewater characteristics, treatment and disposal being an anaerobic system, there is always a risk of generation of bad odours. however, proper design and operational procedures can contribute to the reduction of these risks. it should also be remembered that the septic tank and the anaerobic reactors are closed units. b) upflow anaerobic sludge blanket (uasb) reactors the upflow anaerobic sludge blanket (uasb) reactors are currently the main trend in wastewater treatment in some warm-climate countries, either as single units, or followed by some form of post treatment. intheuasbreactors,thebiomassgrowsdispersedintheliquid,andnotattached to a support medium, as in the case of anaerobic filters. when biomass grows it can form small granules, which are a result of the agglutination of various microorganisms. these small granules tend to serve as a support medium for other organisms. the granulation increases the efficiency of the system, but it is not essential for the working of the reactor, and is actually difficult to be obtained with domestic wastewater. the concentration of the biomass in the reactor is very high, justifying the name of sludge blanket. owing to this high concentration, the volume required for the uasb reactor is greatly reduced in comparison with all other treatment systems. the liquid enters at the bottom, where it meets the sludge blanket, leading to the adsorption of the organic matter by the biomass. the flow is upward. as a result of the anaerobic activity, gases are formed (mainly methane and carbon dioxide) and the bubbles also present a rising tendency. the upper part of the anaerobic sludge blanket reactor presents a structure, whose functions are the separation and accumulation of the gas and the separation and return of the solids (biomass). in this way, the biomass is kept in the system (leading to high concentrations in the reactor), and only a minor fraction leaves with the effluent. this structure is called a three-phase separator, as it separates the liquid, solids, and gases. the form of the separator is frequently that of an inverted cone or pyramid. the gas is collected in the upper part of the separator, in the gas compartment, from where it can be removed for reuse (energy from methane) or burning. the solids settle in the upper part of the separator, in the settling compartment, and drain down the steeply inclined walls until they return to the reactor body. in this way, a large part of the biomass is retained by the system by simple gravitational return (differently from the activated sludge process, which requires pumping of the return sludge). owing to the high solids retention, the hydraulic detention time can be low (in the order of 6 to 10 h). because the gas bubbles do not penetrate the settling zone, the separation of the solids-liquid is not impaired. the effluent is relatively clarified when it leaves the settling compartment, and the concentration of the biomass in the reactor is maintained at a high level. figure4.22presentsaschematicviewofauasbreactor.variousconfigurations are possible, including circular, square or rectangular tanks. the sludge production is very low. the sludge wasted from the reactor is already digested and thickened, and may be simply dewatered in drying beds or other dewatering process. the dewaterability of the sludge is very good. overview of wastewater treatment systems 201
According to the passage, what do scientists need to do to provide "readily usable" information?
providing information that is ''readily usable'' for decision making must therefore navigate and bridge any differences that might exist between what scientists might think is useful, and what is actually usable in practice. this entails establishing a shared vision of what knowledge is usable in a given decision process
What are some examples of constraints that scientists cannot control?
and whereas in some cases factors constraining or fostering use of climate information may be outside the purview of what the scientific enterprise can influence and control (e.g. organizational constraints, lack of human resources, lack of political support), in other cases, they might be within the scope of what science policy can effect
What do the researchers do in the first part of their report?
first, we synthesize 'lessons learned' from the literature--both from a more general perspective and from the perspective of climate science-- seeking to understand the factors that shape information use; second, we explore how these lessons can inform climate science policy
in this paper, we suggest that usability exists within a range in which each use is defined by a perception of usefulness and the actual capacity (e.g. human and financial resources, institutional and organization support, political opportunity) to use different kinds of information. in a recent paper, lemos and rood (2010, p. 673) describe this range by arguing that different actors perceive the usefulness of scientific information differently. scientists, for example, when choosing the focus of their research, may make an assumption of what they think decision makers need and hope their work will meet that need. users, in turn, may define their need differently. however, scientists and users do not uniformly make the same assumption about what they think is useful and what they know is usable. thus, some scientists' assumptions may be closer to users' definition of need, while others' may be farther away. in this sense, there is a range of perceptions of usefulness and usability. providing information that is ''readily usable'' for decision making must therefore navigate and bridge any differences that might exist between what scientists might think is useful, and what is actually usable in practice. this entails establishing a shared vision of what knowledge is usable in a given decision process. we can think of the production and uptake of scientific knowledge as a pull-push process in which different conditions, mechanisms and institutions shape ultimate usability. here we argue that usability is a function of both how science is produced (the push side) and how it is needed (the pull side) in different decision contexts. we further suggest usability is most effectively pursued through deliberate science policy design and implementation, or ''reconciling supply and demand,'' as needs for information are often not well met through the independent production of scientific knowledge alone sarewitz and pielke, 2007 ). one critical aspect of this design is the creation of the conditions and mechanisms that enable iterativity, that is, the purposeful and strategic interaction between climate knowledge producers and users so as to increase knowledge usability lemos and morehouse, 2005 ). in this article, we contend that the creation of these conditions and mechanisms is predicated on the action of organizations and actors that take upon themselves the responsibility to build them. in other words, these actors and organizations 'own' the task of fostering iterativity rather than expecting it to fall on someone else's shoulders or to be a consequential outcome of the call for the creation of usable science alone. and whereas in some cases factors constraining or fostering use of climate information may be outside the purview of what the scientific enterprise can influence and control (e.g. organizational constraints, lack of human resources, lack of political support), in other cases, they might be within the scope of what science policy can effect. hence, to produce usable science, effective science policy should foster iterativity not only by purposefully incentivizing producers and users to own the task of creating it but also by eliminating the constraints that inhibit it. in the next few sections, we explore opportunities and constraints for science use both in the way science is produced as well as in the way it is needed and used. we rely on evidence from different areas of climate information use but especially seasonal climate forecasting (scf), about which there is a rich empirical literature. we aim at exploring evidence-based assumptions of different factors that influence the likelihood of climate science being used in decision making and policy. first, we synthesize 'lessons learned' from the literature--both from a more general perspective and from the perspective of climate science-- seeking to understand the factors that shape information use; second, we explore how these lessons can inform climate science policy. in section two, we briefly discuss different modes of science production and illustrate the models that inform this analysis. section three summarizes the factors constraining and fostering climate science use based on the empirical literature. in section four, we speculate how lessons learned from empirical cases can inform the design of science policy to foster the usability of climate science for decision-making.
What does TOC stand for?
total organic carbon
What is the Lower UK Jurassic known for ?
sparse dinoflagellate cyst contents
What is considered to be of green algal origin?
toarcian ''sphericals
ccarb-org record indicating strong increase in p co2 across sinemurian/pliensbachian boundary. d, total organic carbon (toc). e, abundance of classopollis spp. percentage of total palynomorph fraction. this pollen is considered to be a marker for arid and/or warm conditions. f, abundance of organic inner-wall linings of benthic foraminifera. percentage of total palynomorph fraction. g, dinoflagellate cyst abundance. percentage of total palynomorph fraction. the lower jurassic in the u.k. is known for its sparse dinoflagellate cyst contents. h, prasinophyte abundance. percentage of total palynomorph fraction. this record includes the abundant lower toarcian ''sphericals,'' which are considered to be of green algal origin.
Why the main effect of interest in this regression is best understood when presented in graph form?
because we use a multiplicative term of lagged predicted growth and lagged democracy, the main effect of interest in this regression is best understood when presented in graph form
What the Figure 1 shows?
figure 1 shows the coefficients of predicted economic growth on the likelihood of civil conflict onset at different values of the democracy variable for the sample including all countries
What the results from the second stage estimation offer?
the results from the second stage estimation offer some, albeit weak, support for the theoretical argument that economic growth can have an effect on civil conflict primarily in non-democratic countries
because we use a multiplicative term of lagged predicted growth and lagged democracy, the main effect of interest in this regression is best understood when presented in graph form. figure 1 shows the coefficients of predicted economic growth on the likelihood of civil conflict onset at different values of the democracy variable for the sample including all countries. if the vertical lines, which show the confidence intervals of the respective point estimate, do not cross the zero line, the coefficient on predicted economic growth is significant for the respective value of the democracy variable. figure 1 shows that predicted economic growth has a statistically significant effect on civil conflict onset for certain xpolity scores that indicate autocracies, but not in democracies. however, figure 2 does not confirm this result for the african subsample. here the coefficients of predicted economic growth never reach standard significance levels for any xpolity score.14overall, the results from the second stage estimation offer some, albeit weak, support for the theoretical argument that economic growth can have an effect on civil conflict primarily in non-democratic countries.
What evidence suggests that communities of shallow microsites are more susceptible to species turnover?
estimates of species turnover across the depth gradient reviewed in relation to measurements of water potential, nitrogen supply, ph, and community biomass suggest that communities of shallow microsites are responding directly to microenvironmental changes induced by climate manipulation
What natural defense does vegetation have in response to climate changes?
climate change impacts on vegetation are mediated by soil processes that regulate rhizosphere water balance, nutrient dynamics, and ground-level temperatures
How does species turnover compare between shallow and deep microsites?
estimates of species turnover across the depth gradient reviewed in relation to measurements of water potential, nitrogen supply, ph, and community biomass suggest that communities of shallow microsites are responding directly to microenvironmental changes induced by climate manipulation, while those of the deepest microsites are shifting in response to changes in competitive interference from more nutrient-demanding species
climate change impacts on vegetation are mediated by soil processes that regulate rhizosphere water balance, nutrient dynamics, and ground-level temperatures. for ecosystems characterized by high fine-scale substrate heterogeneity such as grasslands on poorly developed soils, effects of climate change on plant communities may depend on substrate properties that vary at the scale of individuals o m2), leading to fine-scale shifts in community structure that may go undetected at larger scales. here, we show in a long-running climate experiment in species-rich limestone grassland in buxton, england (uk), that the resistance of the community to 15-year manipulations of temperature and rainfall at the plot scale (9 m2) belies considerable community reorganization at the microsite (100 cm2) scale. in individual models of the abundance of the 25 most common species with respect to climate treatment and microsite soil depth, 13 species exhibited significant soil depth affinities, and nine of these have shifted their position along the depth gradient in response to one or more climate treatments. estimates of species turnover across the depth gradient reviewed in relation to measurements of water potential, nitrogen supply, ph, and community biomass suggest that communities of shallow microsites are responding directly to microenvironmental changes induced by climate manipulation, while those of the deepest microsites are shifting in response to changes in competitive interference from more nutrient-demanding species. moreover, for several species in summer drought and winter heated treatments, climate response in deep microsites was opposite that of shallow microsites, suggesting microsite variation is contributing to community stability at the whole-plot level. our study thus demonstrates a strong link between community dynamics and substrate properties, and suggests ecosystems typified by fine-scale substrate heterogeneity may possess a natural buffering capacity in the face of climate change.
What is being represented at the top of the figure?
at the top of the figure are the exposures to the bio-physical drivers of climate change and the sensitivities (bio-physical and socio-economic) that describe the degree to which the systems respond to climate change
How are potential impacts determined?
the potential impacts are determined by the amount of exposure and the sensitivities that, together, determine the vulnerabilities -- the potential for harm from climate change
How are actual impacts determined?
are determined by the capacity of bio-physical and socio-economic systems to adapt and the actual adaptive responses that are influenced by the adaptation planning processes described at the bottom of figure 2
a heuristic for assessing the potential impacts of climate change that combines both bio-physical and social vulnerability measures is adapted from and illustrated in figure 2. at the top of the figure are the exposures to the bio-physical drivers of climate change and the sensitivities (bio-physical and socio-economic) that describe the degree to which the systems respond to climate change. the potential impacts are determined by the amount of exposure and the sensitivities that, together, determine the vulnerabilities -- the potential for harm from climate change. the actual impacts, however, are determined by the capacity of bio-physical and socio-economic systems to adapt and the actual adaptive responses that are influenced by the adaptation planning processes described at the bottom of figure 2. thus, actual impacts of climate change can be reduced by: (1) promoting resilience so as to reduce system sensitivities; (2) increasing adaptation capacity and effectiveness of adaptation responses and (3) improving the adaptation-planning processes.
WHICH TECHNIQUE IS MORE USEFUL TO ESTABLISH CHRONOLOGY?
the most useful technique is 210pb dating
which events can provide clear time markers and sediment?
tephra from known volcanic eruptions, or clay lenses from dated flood events can provide clear time markers in sediments, and the record of air pollutants
the most important need in matching observational and sediment records is establishing an accurate sediment chronology. although some lakes have annually laminated (varved) sediments that allow sediment chronologies to be derived with accuracy and precision enabling perfect sidereal matching with historical observations, most lake sediments are not annually layered. chronologies in most instances need to be established using indirect techniques, all of which have uncertainties. for recent sediments, i.e. those accumulating over the last 100 years, the most useful technique is 210pb dating (cf.appleby, 2001). this is a globally applicable method based on the radioactive decay of 210pb with a half-life of 22.26 years. uncertainties include inherent systematic errors associated with the measurement of radioactivity, and lakeor core-specific errors associated with the age modelling assumptions used in the derivation of a chronology. it is important to use as many cross-checking approaches as possible, for example, by comparing 210pb chronologies with dates derived from measurements of fallout 137cs caused by nuclear weapon testing in the 1960s and by the chernobyl nuclear explosion in 1986. occasionally locally recorded events including tephra from known volcanic eruptions, or clay lenses from dated flood events can provide clear time markers in sediments, and the record of air pollutants (e.g. from fly ash particles and trace metals) can provide valuable time controls at the regional scale (rose, 2001).
What has evolved over more than 150 years through a process of collective learning?
scientists' understanding of climate change has evolved over more than 150 years through a process of collective learning
What is captured in carefully peer-reviewed collective assessments of the evidence?
the understanding of the scientific community is captured in carefully peer-reviewed collective assessments of the evidence
What are the most important recent assessments, particularly from a U.S. standpoint?
the most important recent assessments, particularly from a u.s. standpoint, are those of the u.s. global change research program (karl, melillo, peterson, 2009) and the national research council (2010a
scientists' understanding of climate change has evolved over more than 150 years through a process of collective learning that relies on the accumulation of observational data; the formation, testing, and refinement of hypotheses; the construction of theories and models to synthesize knowledge; and the empirical testing of hypotheses, theories, and models (national research council, 2010a). the understanding of the scientific community is captured in carefully peer-reviewed collective assessments of the evidence, including those of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc). the most important recent assessments, particularly from a u.s. standpoint, are those of the u.s. global change research program (karl, melillo, peterson, 2009) and the national research council (2010a). these assessments support the following conclusions with high or
What do we notice from a political perspective?
from a political perspective, concerted action--and by extension adaptive management--on a global scale is made virtually impossible by the fact that national political leaders are naturally protective of their sovereignty, preferring to maintain as much policy autonomy and control as possible
What did Putnam say on state leaders?
this is natural in the face of both international competition and domestic demands on the state, which interact to shape the ever-changing incentives of state leaders (putnam 1988
What are elected officials notorious for?
elected officials are notorious for their short time horizons and their greater concern with personal gain (votes and "rents") than with effective policy, thereby limiting the potential for implementing adaptive management (lee 1993
from a political perspective, concerted action--and by extension adaptive management--on a global scale is made virtually impossible by the fact that national political leaders are naturally protective of their sovereignty, preferring to maintain as much policy autonomy and control as possible. this is natural in the face of both international competition and domestic demands on the state, which interact to shape the ever-changing incentives of state leaders (putnam 1988). so, too, the long-term nature of consistent policy treatments in adaptive management exceeds the typical terms of most political regimes. in sum, elected officials are notorious for their short time horizons and their greater concern with personal gain (votes and "rents") than with effective policy, thereby limiting the potential for implementing adaptive management (lee 1993).
What emerged during workshop discussions and symposium presentations?
several novel sampling devices and techniques emerged during workshop discussions and symposium presentations
Tools like what?
tools like 'monster tricycles' for sampling the surf zone, 'swash boxes' for sampling highly mobile swashriding species and 'sticky traps' for sampling winged insects show great promise, but most need more development before being included in the toolbox of the general sandy beach ecologist
"Swash boxes" are for sampling what kind of species?
tools like 'monster tricycles' for sampling the surf zone, 'swash boxes' for sampling highly mobile swashriding species and 'sticky traps' for sampling winged insects show great promise, but most need more development before being included in the toolbox of the general sandy beach ecologist
several novel sampling devices and techniques emerged during workshop discussions and symposium presentations. tools like 'monster tricycles' for sampling the surf zone, 'swash boxes' for sampling highly mobile swashriding species and 'sticky traps' for sampling winged insects show great promise, but most need more development before being included in the toolbox of the general sandy beach ecologist. more conventional techniques like pitfall traps, bait pumps, burrow counts, standard visual counts and epibenthic sleds are valuable additions to most sampling programmes, but are difficult to include in a standardised manner; instead they tend to be used to answer specific questions beyond the scope of this discussion.
The climate change intersects what?
while the new issue of climate change intersected with a number of existing policy areas (e.g. transport, energy, housing, overseas development), during this period it was closely tied to one government department - the department of the environment and associated interests, while remaining peripheral to the agendas of other policy sectors
To which government department is tied the climate change?
while the new issue of climate change intersected with a number of existing policy areas (e.g. transport, energy, housing, overseas development), during this period it was closely tied to one government department - the department of the environment and associated interests, while remaining peripheral to the agendas of other policy sectors. we propose that it has primarily been in the energy policy arena that policy convergence has taken place and we focus our analysis on this process. we argue that this process should be considered in terms of convergence because energy policy has become a key arena within which policy actors seek solutions to climate change, while the climate change policy agenda has become integral to energy policy
The connection between energy policy and climate change?
we argue that this process should be considered in terms of convergence because energy policy has become a key arena within which policy actors seek solutions to climate change, while the climate change policy agenda has become integral to energy policy. further, the integration of energy and climate change ideas, goals and policy mechanisms discussed below suggests that this is more than the rise of an 'external' issue on the policy agenda of a defined sub-domain
we suggest that as the issues of energy and climate change have gained policy prominence, in the past two decades they have converged.i in the early 1990s, energy and climate change were relatively discrete policy arenas. while the new issue of climate change intersected with a number of existing policy areas (e.g. transport, energy, housing, overseas development), during this period it was closely tied to one government department - the department of the environment and associated interests, while remaining peripheral to the agendas of other policy sectors. we propose that it has primarily been in the energy policy arena that policy convergence has taken place and we focus our analysis on this process. we argue that this process should be considered in terms of convergence because energy policy has become a key arena within which policy actors seek solutions to climate change, while the climate change policy agenda has become integral to energy policy. further, the integration of energy and climate change ideas, goals and policy mechanisms discussed below suggests that this is more than the rise of an 'external' issue on the policy agenda of a defined sub-domain. in this 3 3 paper, we suggest that convergence of this kind poses critical challenges for theories of policy change that are based on discrete sectors responding to abrupt, short-lived problems, typically in a conflictual way (dudley, 2003; hajer, 1995; ham and hall, 1993; sabatier, 1999). new insights are required to account for policy dynamics that are more consensual and that take place beyond the confines of one particular policy sector.
What led to a rapid reorientation of aid flows?
increasing dissatisfaction about the results of traditional development cooperation and the appeal of climate policy as a new policy field led to a rapid reorientation of aid flows
What percentage of aid flows were spent on greenhouse gas emissions mitigation at the turn of the century?
at the turn of the century, over 7% of aid flows were spent on greenhouse gas emissions mitigation
Did an analysis of the Clean Development Mechanism show that projects addressing the poor are very rare or common, with small renewable projects in rural areas tending to benefit the poor or rich farmers?
an analysis of the clean development mechanism shows that projects addressing the poor directly are very rare; even small renewable energy projects in rural areas tend to benefit rich farmers and the urban population
we analyze the interaction of climate and development policy that has taken place since the early 1990s. increasing dissatisfaction about the results of traditional development cooperation and the appeal of climate policy as a new policy field led to a rapid reorientation of aid flows. at the turn of the century, over 7% of aid flows were spent on greenhouse gas emissions mitigation. however, the contribution of emissions mitigation projects to the central development objective of poverty reduction as specified in the millennium development goals is limited and other project types are likely to be much more effective. adaptation to climate change can be expected to have higher synergies with poverty alleviation than mitigation, primarily through its impact on health, the conservation of arable land and the protection against natural disasters. an analysis of the clean development mechanism shows that projects addressing the poor directly are very rare; even small renewable energy projects in rural areas tend to benefit rich farmers and the urban population. use of development aid for cdm projects and or their preparation via capacity building is thus clearly not warranted.
What do panels a-c show?
panels a-c show sensitivity to survival of first year females
What ages do panels f and g show sensitivity for?
panels f and g show sensitivity to fecundity for ages 3 to 7, and 8 or above, respectively
extended data figure 3 sensitivity of the population growth rate (log( l )) to changes in statistical parameters of vital rates describing the survival and fertility functions in integral projection models. panels a-c show sensitivity to survival of first year females a ), females of ages 1 to 7 b continuous lines for pre-breeders and dashed for breeders), and ages 8 or above c ). panel d shows sensitivity to recruitment a and panel e shows sensitivity to inheritance h h 9 h )), with a dashed line for the variance intercept. panels f and g show sensitivity to fecundity for ages 3 to 7, and 8 or above, respectively. panels h and i show sensitivities to breeding success z for ages 3 to 7, and 8 or above, respectively. red lines are intercepts, black and grey are linear and quadratic sam index effects, green are homozygosity weighted by locus (hl) effects, and blue are linear age effects. the scale of the vertical axes in panels a-c and e are an order of magnitude higher than in the other panels.
What is a relatively simple and empirical task according to Nolan McCarty?
as nolan mccarty (2004, 2007) says in summarizing the literature, demonstrating polarization among elites is a relatively simple and empirical task
What has widened deeply over the past twenty-five years?
by almost all measures of partisan polarization, the divide between democratic and republican members of congress has widened deeply over the past twenty-five years, reaching levels of partisan conflict not witnessed since the 1920s
What has clarified the parties' ideological positions for ordinary Americans, according to Marc Hetherington?
in an article published in the american political science review marc hetherington (2001) finds that "greater partisan polarization in congress has clarified the parties' ideological positions for ordinary americans," which in turn has "produced a more partisan electorate
guber 105 war: how extreme partisanship has paralyzed washington and polarized america on the other, just to name a few. as nolan mccarty (2004, 2007) says in summarizing the literature, demonstrating polarization among elites is a relatively simple and empirical task. "by almost all measures of partisan polarization, the divide between democratic and republican members of congress has widened deeply over the past twenty-five years, reaching levels of partisan conflict not witnessed since the 1920s" (mccarty, 2004, p. 1). what is far less clear is whether that trend has trickled down to the masses (levendusky, 2009). although there is no consensus on the matter, some scholars believe that it has had at least some impact. in an article published in the american political science review marc hetherington (2001) finds that "greater partisan polarization in congress has clarified the parties' ideological positions for ordinary americans," which in turn has "produced a more partisan electorate" (pp. 619, 629). similarly, in a recent piece in political behavior matthew levendusky (2010) argues that elite polarization generates clearers cues for voters, which in turn allows them to adopt more consistent positions. although the gallup data are limited and do not allow for a full and convincing test, the extent of mass polarization can be explored in a preliminary way. in addition to its standard environmental battery, gallup asked its respondents in 2010 to consider a range of social, economic, and foreign policy problems, ranging from unemployment and the economy to illegal immigration and the affordability of health care. in figure 3, the average response to each of these questions is plotted visually as a difference in means. on issues where democrats were more concerned than republicans, the bars fall to the right; when republicans expressed greater concern, the bars fall to the left. the rank order that is so easily observed demonstrates that although the distance between partisans is greater on "the quality of the environment" than on any other issue on gallup's extensive list--only illegal immigration comes close--the divide on global warming is deepest of all.12
What is the variation between models?
estimates of climate sensitivity of most general circulation models vary among models between 1.5 and 4.5 k cubasch et al. 2001], but it exceeds 6 k in certain models webb et al. 2006
How can climate sensitivity be formally expressed?
climate sensitivity may formally be expressed by considering the energy balance of the global system
the response of the climate system to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations is commonly characterised by the climate sensitivity that we denote d t2  co2, and which is defined as the global mean surface temperature response to a doubling of co2 atmospheric concentration once the system has reached an equilibrium state [e.g., schlesinger and mitchell 1987]. estimates of climate sensitivity of most general circulation models vary among models between 1.5 and 4.5 k cubasch et al. 2001], but it exceeds 6 k in certain models webb et al. 2006]. climate sensitivity may formally be expressed by considering the energy balance of the global system:
What was the determination of the COD:N:P ratio?
determination of the cod:n:p ratio 0.350 gcod/l:0.0039 gn/l:0.0009 gp/l 350:3.9:0.9 or (350:4:1
What are principles of anaerobic digestion?
principles of anaerobic digestion 685 (d) micronutrients besides nitrogen, phosphorus and sulfur, which, together with carbon and oxygen, constitute the macromolecules of the microbial cells, a large number of other elements are necessary for the anaerobic digestion process
What are these elements named and are comprised of?
these elements are named micronutrients and comprise the micromolecules of the cells
determination of the cod:n:p ratio 0.350 gcod/l:0.0039 gn/l:0.0009 gp/l 350:3.9:0.9 or (350:4:1) principles of anaerobic digestion 685 (d) micronutrients besides nitrogen, phosphorus and sulfur, which, together with carbon and oxygen, constitute the macromolecules of the microbial cells, a large number of other elements are necessary for the anaerobic digestion process. these elements are named micronutrients and comprise the micromolecules of the cells. they represent about 4% of the dry weight of the cells. it is difficult to determine in practice the exact demand of these micronutrients, once the presence and need for sulfides by the methanogenic organisms lead to the precipitation of these elements from the solution, making the concentration of metals in equilibrium very low. to solve this situation, a pulse application of acidified influent can be performed to disturb the chemical equilibrium and make the metals momentarily available for the methanogenic microorganisms. iron, cobalt, nickel and molybdenum are the main micronutrients required by the microorganisms that form methane from acetate.
What is presented in this study?
in this study we presented a methodology to simulate the transient effects of glacier retreat on streamflow patterns by coupling a semi-distributed hydrological model with a glacier mass balance and glacier scaling model
What glacier is predicted to decrease in area by 20% over the next 50 to 100 years?
the model results revealed that bridge glacier is significantly out of equilibrium with the current climate, and even when a continuation of current climate is assumed, the glacier decreases in area by 20% over the next 50 to 100 years
Does the glacier appear to approach a new equilibrium after 100 years?
under the two warming scenarios, glacier retreat occurred even more rapidly, and the glacier did not appear to approach a new equilibrium after 100 years
in this study we presented a methodology to simulate the transient effects of glacier retreat on streamflow patterns by coupling a semi-distributed hydrological model with a glacier mass balance and glacier scaling model. the volume-area scaling approach has been applied in glaciological studies and is implemented into global climate models, but this appears to be its first application in predictions of future streamflow with a hydrological model. it proved to be a viable approach for generating first-order estimates of coupled glacier and streamflow response to climate change. however, it requires that the model simulates not only streamflow but also glacier mass balance correctly. we showed that, particularly in data sparse areas where climatic gradients are unknown, surveyed mass balances can aid calibration of model parameters and hence greatly reduce the uncertainty in the predictions. the model results revealed that bridge glacier is significantly out of equilibrium with the current climate, and even when a continuation of current climate is assumed, the glacier decreases in area by 20% over the next 50 to 100 years. this retreat is accompanied by a similar decrease in summer streamflow. under the two warming scenarios, glacier retreat occurred even more rapidly, and the glacier did not appear to approach a new equilibrium after 100 years. these results highlight the need to account for glacier retreat in hydrological simulations, especially for decadal and longer time scales.
Which will play a major role in determining and distribution and abundance of the vector organisms?
local climatic parameters therefore play a central role in determining the distribution and abundance of these vector organisms, either directly or indirectly, through the effects of such parameters on the host animals
What will be restricted by the distribution of the vector-borne diseases?
the distribution of vector-borne diseases is restricted by, among other things, the climate tolerance limits of their vectors
Who will conduct the 'the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate'?
the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) concluded that, 'the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate
certain diseases are associated with particular environmental conditions, seasons and climates (14). some of these diseases are transmitted by vectors, such as arthropods (mosquitoes, lice, ticks) or rodents, which are sensitive to changes in climatic conditions, especially temperature and humidity. local climatic parameters therefore play a central role in determining the distribution and abundance of these vector organisms, either directly or indirectly, through the effects of such parameters on the host animals. the distribution of vector-borne diseases is restricted by, among other things, the climate tolerance limits of their vectors. abiotic factors have a direct impact on the bionomics of arthropods and, thus, on the dynamics of their populations. there is also a minimum temperature for arthropods to complete their extrinsic incubation period and this is a limiting factor for infection transmission in many temperate areas. in addition, biological restrictions that limit the survival of the infective agent in the vector population also determine the limits for disease transmission. at present, the world climate is in a warming phase. the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) concluded that, 'the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate' (15). indeed, evidence suggests that human activities contribute to warming the planet and climate models predict an increase in global mean temperatures of between 1oc and 3.5oc during the 21st century, with large differences in trends between locations. temperature changes are one of the most obvious and easily measured changes in climate, but atmospheric moisture, precipitation and atmospheric circulation also change as the whole system is affected. these effects alter the hydrological cycle, especially the characteristics of precipitation/rainfall (amount, frequency, intensity, duration, type) (37). finally, it is anticipated that global climate change will induce changes in the magnitude and frequency of extreme events (10) and have significant effects on the geographical range and seasonal activity of many vector species (25). it is therefore expected that global climate change will alter the distribution and increase the risk of some vector-borne zoonoses, including rift valley fever (rvf), leading to significant changes in the geographical distribution and frequency of rvf epidemics.
What is the main objective of the preliminary design?
the main objective of the preliminary design is to obtain information to support the technical and economical comparison of the alternatives
What serves as the basis for the preliminary cost estimates?
the main dimensions of the units, the area occupied, the earth cut and fill volumes, the concrete volumes,theenergytobeconsumed,therequiredequipmentandotheritemsjudged of relevance in the works in question should be known. such knowledge serves as the basis for the preliminary cost estimates, which can support the economical study
For the preliminary design, focus is given for what?
for the preliminary design, focus is given to process calculations, without the need to deepen in detailing the units and in the hydraulic calculations of pipes and interconnections
there is no need for the elaboration of a detailed design for the technical and economical study of alternatives. the main objective of the preliminary design is to obtain information to support the technical and economical comparison of the alternatives. the drawing of the 284 to wastewater characteristics, treatment and disposal plant layout, including the main units, is necessary. in addition, the main dimensions of the units, the area occupied, the earth cut and fill volumes, the concrete volumes,theenergytobeconsumed,therequiredequipmentandotheritemsjudged of relevance in the works in question should be known. such knowledge serves as the basis for the preliminary cost estimates, which can support the economical study. for the preliminary design, focus is given to process calculations, without the need to deepen in detailing the units and in the hydraulic calculations of pipes and interconnections. the various design examples presented in this book are at the preliminary-design level
what are the effects of Climate change?
climate change affects the function and operation of existing water infrastructure - including hydropower, structural flood defences, drainage and irrigation systems - as well as water management practices. adverse effects of climate change on freshwater systems aggravate the impacts of other stresses, such as population growth, changing economic activity, land-use change and urbanisation very high confidence 
why Adaptation options been designed?
adaptation options designed to ensure water supply during average and drought conditions require integrated demand-side as well as supply-side strategies. the former improve water-use efficiency, e.g., by recycling water
why will water demand  grow in the coming decades ?
globally, water demand will grow in the coming decades, primarily due to population growth and increasing affluence; regionally, large changes in irrigation water demand as a result of climate change are expected high confidence 
climate change affects the function and operation of existing water infrastructure - including hydropower, structural flood defences, drainage and irrigation systems - as well as water management practices. adverse effects of climate change on freshwater systems aggravate the impacts of other stresses, such as population growth, changing economic activity, land-use change and urbanisation very high confidence ). globally, water demand will grow in the coming decades, primarily due to population growth and increasing affluence; regionally, large changes in irrigation water demand as a result of climate change are expected high confidence ). [1.3, 4.4, 4.5, 4.6] current water management practices may not be robust enough to cope with the impacts of climate change on water supply reliability, flood risk, health, agriculture, energy and aquatic ecosystems. in many locations, water management cannot satisfactorily cope even with current climate variability, so that large flood and drought damages occur. as a first step, improved incorporation of information about current climate variability into water-related management would assist adaptation to longer-term climate change impacts. climatic and non-climatic factors, such as growth of population and damage potential, would exacerbate problems in the future very high confidence ). [3.3] climate change challenges the traditional assumption that past hydrological experience provides a good guide to future conditions. the consequences of climate change may alter the reliability of current water management systems and water-related infrastructure. while quantitative projections of changes in precipitation, river flows and water levels at the river-basin scale are uncertain, it is very likely that hydrological characteristics will change in the future. adaptation procedures and risk management practices that incorporate projected hydrological changes with related uncertainties are being developed in some countries and regions. [3.3] adaptation options designed to ensure water supply during average and drought conditions require integrated demand-side as well as supply-side strategies. the former improve water-use efficiency, e.g., by recycling water. an expanded use of economic incentives, including metering and pricing, to encourage water conservation and development of water markets and implementation of virtual water trade, holds considerable promise for water savings and the reallocation of water to highly valued uses. supply-side strategies generally involve increases in storage capacity, ion from water courses, and water transfers. integrated water resources management provides an important framework to achieve adaptation measures across socio-economic, environmental and administrative systems. to be effective, integrated approaches must occur at the appropriate scales. [3.3] mitigation measures can reduce the magnitude of impacts of global warming on water resources, in turn reducing adaptation needs. however, they can have considerable negative side effects, such as increased water requirements for afforestation/reforestation activities or bio-energy crops, if projects are not sustainably located, designed and managed. on the other hand, water management policy measures, e.g., hydrodams, can influence greenhouse gas emissions. hydrodams are a source of renewable energy. nevertheless, they produce greenhouse gas emissions themselves. the magnitude of these emissions depends on specific circumstance and mode of operation. [section 6] water resources management clearly impacts on many other policy areas, e.g., energy, health, food security and nature conservation. thus, the appraisal of adaptation and mitigation options needs to be conducted across multiple water-dependent sectors. low-income countries and regions are likely to remain vulnerable over the medium term, with fewer options than highincome countries for adapting to climate change. therefore, adaptation strategies should be designed in the context of development, environment and health policies. [section 7] several gaps in knowledge exist in terms of observations and research needs related to climate change and water. observational data and data access are prerequisites for adaptive management, yet many observational networks are shrinking. there is a need to improve understanding and modelling of climate changes related to the hydrological cycle at scales relevant to decision making. information about the waterrelated impacts of climate change is inadequate - especially with respect to water quality, aquatic ecosystems and groundwater - including their socio-economic dimensions. finally, current tools to facilitate integrated appraisals of adaptation and mitigation options across multiple water-dependent sectors are inadequate. [section 8]
Much of the communicable disease outcome of flooding events centres on?
the impacts of flooding on water supplies and sanitation facilities
waterborne and faecal-oral disease outbreaks during floods are of such low incidence in which region?
the north
the focus is less on technical matters, but more on what?
how mitigation and emergency response actions are organised and the considerations that need to be made in ensuring they have the desired effects on public health (processes and policies of adaptation
much of the communicable disease outcome of flooding events centres on the impacts of flooding on water supplies and sanitation facilities. equally actions in water and sanitation are among the most widespread of health-related coping strategies in the face of flooding. hence it is important to explore in detail here the nature of risks and responses in this sector and associated issues. because waterborne and faecal-oral disease outbreaks during floods are of such low incidence in the north, the discussion here deals primarily with studies undertaken in the south. once again, the focus here is less on technical matters, but more on how mitigation and emergency response actions are organised and the considerations that need to be made in ensuring they have the desired effects on public health (processes and policies of adaptation). we look mainly at interventions in this sector by state organisations and ngos that are specific to flooding and flood risk contexts (though there is inevitably some reference to generalized principles of emergency water and sanitation). though we do not cover them here, it is also important to note other actions relating to environmental health during floods that may need to be taken in parallel with water and sanitation measures. these include strategies to reduce solid waste and hazardous waste, and to enhance food safety and de-contamination of homes, some of which are discussed in section 4.2.2. flood impacts on water and sanitation systems parker and thompson (2000, p197) observe: 'typically floods adversely affect water supply systems including water purification plants, as well as sewerage and sewage
What is ECV?
the essential character of the ecv list has been one of its strengths, calling for prudence in its expansion
When the follow of the IPCC assessment reports?
the roughly 6-yr period adopted by gcos for the cycle illustrated in fig. 3 has tended to follow that of the ipcc assessment reports, though arguably it should be a little longer
What is the user requirements for ECV datasets?
although a holistic approach to setting them is desirable, the user requirements for ecv datasets will not in general be consistent among each other. in any case, gcos requirements are of indicative nature, and more refined user requirements have to be developed for specific observing missions and dataset generation initiatives (e.g., hollmann et al. 2013
the essential character of the ecv list has been one of its strengths, calling for prudence in its expansion. the roughly 6-yr period adopted by gcos for the cycle illustrated in fig. 3 has tended to follow that of the ipcc assessment reports, though arguably it should be a little longer. observation requirements for ecv datasets must recognize the needs of the range of applications. although a holistic approach to setting them is desirable, the user requirements for ecv datasets will not in general be consistent among each other. in any case, gcos requirements are of indicative nature, and more refined user requirements have to be developed for specific observing missions and dataset generation initiatives (e.g., hollmann et al. 2013).
What are the materials used of the discs?
the discs usually are less than 3.6 metres in diameter and are generally constructed of low weight plastic
How large are the discs?
the discs usually are less than 3.6 metres in diameter
What happens after the discs complete a rotation?
after the discs complete a rotation, this film mixes itself with the wastewater, bringing still some oxygen and mixing the partially and fully treated sewage
the discs usually are less than 3.6 metres in diameter and are generally constructed of low weight plastic. when the system is put into operation, the microorganisms of the sewage start to adhere to the rotating surfaces, where they grow until the entire disk surface is covered with a fine biological layer, a few millimetres thick. as the discs rotate, the part of the disc exposed to the air brings a thin layer of wastewater, allowing oxygen absorption through the drops and percolation on the surface of the discs. after the discs complete a rotation, this film mixes itself with the wastewater, bringing still some oxygen and mixing the partially and fully treated sewage. with the passage of the microorganisms attached to the disc surface through the wastewater, they absorb a new quantity of organic matter that is used as food. when the biological layer reaches an excessive thickness, it detaches from the discs. part of these detached microorganisms is maintained in suspension in the liquid due to the movement of the disk, which increases the efficiency of the system. the main purposes of the discs are:
How many regional network sites are the home to fire-scar chronolgies?
63 sites
How many mountain ranges are in the Southwest?
26 mountain ranges
How many giant sequioa fire-scar chronologies are there?
our sierran collections include five giant sequoia fire-scar chronologies, which will be described separately
the regional networks of fire-scar chronolgies we have assembled are from 63 sites in 26 mountain ranges in the southwest, and 49 sites from four elevational transects on the west slope of the sierras. our sierran collections include five giant sequoia fire-scar chronologies, which will be described separately. the influence of interannual climatic variation is evident as years when many sites (and trees) have recorded fires during particular years, and as years when no, or few sites (and trees) have recorded fire events (fig. 6.5). the interpretation of climate as the primary driver of this synchrony is reasonable because there is no other known factor that operates at these spatial and temporal scales that could result in such a high degree of year-to-year synchrony. also, as will be demonstrated below, these synchronous dates are statistically associated with independent records of interannual wet and dry conditions.
In many cases the model needs what?
in many cases the model needs a few time slices to converge to a proper independence model
How is the problem easily solved?
this problem is easily solved by developing the model for more slices than needed and then deleting the first few slices in the results
How many slices should be deleted is usually obvious from what?
how many slices should be deleted is usually obvious from the resulting graph because the first (erroneous) slices usually differ significantly from the stable pattern emerging in the later slices
in many cases the model needs a few time slices to converge to a proper independence model. the reason is an initialization problem; namely, to determine the causal flow originating in a time slice, it is crucial to have information of the causal flow into that time slice. since the first few time slices are lacking that information (because no prior time slices are included), they often yield erroneous links. this problem is easily solved by developing the model for more slices than needed and then deleting the first few slices in the results. how many slices should be deleted is usually obvious from the resulting graph because the first (erroneous) slices usually differ significantly from the stable pattern emerging in the later slices. in our examples it was sufficient to delete the first three slices.
According to this passage , What is the role that play non actors ?
the important role that non-state actors can play in this area, the outlook for accountability at the hands of civil society is uncertain and highly uneven
Which policies depends on capacity of civil society?
national policies depends on the capacity of civil society to organize and exert pressure on governments and the degree to which civil society enjoys a permissive environment domestically
What is the Bailey and Tomlinson 's point?
as bailey and tomlinson point out, the 'safe operating space' for independent monitoring is shrinking in many countries
despite the important role that non-state actors can play in this area, the outlook for accountability at the hands of civil society is uncertain and highly uneven. domestic monitoring of national policies depends on the capacity of civil society to organize and exert pressure on governments and the degree to which civil society enjoys a permissive environment domestically. research on domestic environmental politics reveals starkly divergent fortunes for environmental ngos, for example between those operating in democratic states with open, pluralistic political cultures and those that face tight political control by autocratic regimes. as bailey and tomlinson point out, the 'safe operating space' for independent monitoring is shrinking in many countries, and especially
What was the response from European businesses?
the response from european business was slower in coming, less coordinated, and less hostile, and they became receptive to climate measures at an earlier stage (kolk, 2001; kolk and levy, 2004
What is one of the core elements of the strategy?
investing in low emission products and technologies is one core element, exemplified by bp's investment in solar energy as part of its new 'beyond petroleum' strategy
What is Wal-Mart focusing on?
wal-mart is focusing on these operational efficiencies, and the ceo recently stated that reducing greenhouse gases would "save money for our customers, make us a more efficient business, and help position us to compete
corporate responses to climate change have shifted dramatically over the past two decades. until the early 1990s, business generally neglected the issue, though a few larger transportation and oil firms tracked the growing scientific attention to the topic. by the mid-1990s, north american businesses in sectors related to fossil fuels had woken up to climate change and perceived the prospect of greenhouse gas (ghg) emission regulations as a substantial threat. new industry groups were created, such as the global climate coalition (gcc) and the climate council, which directed their energies toward preventing an international regime to impose caps on ghg emissions, and played a major role in preventing the united states from joining the kyoto protocol (levy and egan, 2003). the response from european business was slower in coming, less coordinated, and less hostile, and they became receptive to climate measures at an earlier stage (kolk, 2001; kolk and levy, 2004). more recently, business has tended to converge on a more constructive stance that acknowledges the scientific concerns and frames climate change as an opportunity rather than a burden (margolick and russell, 2004). this more optimistic view is expressed in a 2006 report from ceres, a coalition of investors, firms, and environmental organizations (cogan, 2006: 1): "companies at the vanguard no longer question how much it will cost to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but how much money they can make doing it. financial markets are starting to reward companies that are moving ahead on climate change, while those lagging behind are being assigned more risk". as firms move from an oppositional political response toward preparation for a carbon constrained future, they display a wide range of strategies (kolk and pinkse, 2005). investing in low emission products and technologies is one core element, exemplified by bp's investment in solar energy as part of its new 'beyond petroleum' strategy. firms are also seeking to reduce emissions from their operations, including transportation and buildings. wal-mart is focusing on these operational efficiencies, and the ceo recently stated that reducing greenhouse gases would "save money for our customers, make us a more efficient business, and help position us to compete
What does urban micro do?
monitoring and detection of global climate
What strategy are they using against impact of warming?
white roofs
urban micro - climates have long been recognised howard 1833; oke 1987], and in the monitoring and detection of global climate change climatologists have gone to great lengths to remove or minimise the potential influence of urbanisation on the historical climate record parker 2010]. this is vital for trying to detect warming trends of the order 0.1degc per decade. however, observational evidence shows trends in urban heat islands in some locations of a similar magnitude or greater than that from greenhouse gas forced climate change stone 2007; fujibe 2009] and further urbanisation of the global population is expected through the 21st century united nations 2007]. the latest report from the intergovernmental panel on climate change recognises that urbanisation is missing from climate model projections christensen et al. 2007], and the potential for differential rates of radiatively - forced climate change in urban compared to rural areas has received little attention. the magnitude of the urban heat island is a function of urban morphology and physical characteristics, urban extent, waste heat release, and regional climate factors [see, e.g., oke 1987; arnfield 2003; kanda 2007]. advances in recent decades have produced a variety of numerical models designed to simulate the key processes governing heat, moisture and momentum exchanges of the urban canopy grimmond et al. 2010]. recent analysis by oleson et al. [2010] use an urban scheme within a global climate model (gcm) to quantify the potential impact of white roofs as a climate mitigation strategy. in this paper we use an urban land surface scheme coupled to a gcm as an integrated method to quantify the impact of large - scale and local drivers of climate change on the urban environment, and demonstrate that these effects should not be treated independently when making projections of urban climate change.
What modelling is required to quantify the future evolution of recharge over time?
quantifying the future evolution of recharge over time requires not only the reliable forecasting of changes in key climatic variables, but also modelling their impact on the spatially varying recharge process
What was the method presented by the paper used to simulate?
in this study, the method is used to simulate the past conditions, with 40 years of actual weather data, and future changes in the hydrologic cycle of the grand river watershed
What do the study results predict about the overall rate of groundwater recharge?
the results of the study indicate that the overall rate of groundwater recharge is predicted to increase as a result of climate change
understanding the process of groundwater recharge is fundamental to the management of groundwater resources. quantifying the future evolution of recharge over time requires not only the reliable forecasting of changes in key climatic variables, but also modelling their impact on the spatially varying recharge process. this paper presents a physically based methodology that can be used to characterize both the temporal and spatial effect of climate change on groundwater recharge. the method, based on the hydrologic model help3, can be used to estimate potential groundwater recharge at the regional scale with high spatial and temporal resolution. in this study, the method is used to simulate the past conditions, with 40 years of actual weather data, and future changes in the hydrologic cycle of the grand river watershed. the impact of climate change is modelled by perturbing the model input parameters using predicted changes in the regions climate. the results of the study indicate that the overall rate of groundwater recharge is predicted to increase as a result of climate change. the higher intensity and frequency of precipitation will also contribute significantly to surface runoff, while global warming may result in increased evapotranspiration rates. warmer winter temperatures will reduce the extent of ground frost and shift the spring melt from spring toward winter, allowing more water to infiltrate into the ground. while many previous climate change impact studies have focused on the temporal changes in groundwater recharge, our results suggest that the impacts can also have high spatial variability. a 2007 elsevier b.v. all rights reserved.
what are the grid values â€‹â€‹of the TP, Lhasa cells and the extreme southeastern grid cell
tp (grid cells 5-6), the lhasa grid cell (10), and the extreme southeastern grid cell (14
what is the trend of cell 7, 6 and 14
grid cell 7 has a significant negative trend. the trends at grid cells 6 and 14 are observed across all seasons
how is the correspondence between the trends of the season and ERA-40?
overall, the correspondence between station and era-40 trends is poor
tp (grid cells 5-6), the lhasa grid cell (10), and the extreme southeastern grid cell (14). these are of similar magnitude to the station trends (table 4). grid cell 7 has a significant negative trend. the trends at grid cells 6 and 14 are observed across all seasons, while the trend of grid cell 5 is dominated by the cold season. significant positive winter trends only are evident in some of the northeastern grid cells. overall, the correspondence between station and era-40 trends is poor. 3.5. plateau-wide comparisons and climate change we next assess the results aggregated for the entire tp. the aggregate long-term temperature means for the two time series representing the tp (the 54 era-40 grid cells
What are two measurements used to to measure a state's dependency on carbon-related industry?
the two measurements i use to measure a state's dependency on carbon-related industry are carbon intensity and natural gas and coal production
In the U.S., where is the majority of electricity production derived from?
in particular, in the united states, the majority of electricity production is derived from the combustion of coal and natural gas
What agency collected coal and natural gas production?
coal and natural gas production was collected from the energy information agency and is measured in thousands of btu/capita (energy information administration, multiple years
other attributes of states may provide impediments to policy adoption. special interest groups--especially those representing powerful industries--may hold considerable sway over state policy-making efforts. in contrast to the interest group liberalism model, which posits that a wide variety of special interests will tug at national policy (lowi, 1979), a smaller number industry groups may hold considerable sway over policy-making efforts at the state level (ringquist garand, 1999). in the context of energy policy, i expect that states that have a greater reliance on carbon-intensive industries will be less likely to implement energy efficiency and renewable energy policies. in particular, in the united states, the majority of electricity production is derived from the combustion of coal and natural gas. states that produce coal and natural gas should be less inclined to implement energy efficiency and renewable energy policies in order to protect local industries. in contrast, a state may anticipate future mandatory regulations from the national level and attempt to act early. however, in the time frame of this study, mandatory action does not seem to be a credible threat. the two measurements i use to measure a state's dependency on carbon-related industry are carbon intensity and natural gas and coal production. the carbon dioxide intensity of a state is measured in tons per thousand of real 2000 chained dollars of gross state product (gsp). carbon dioxide emissions data were collected from the energy information agency (energy information administration, 2007). coal and natural gas production was collected from the energy information agency and is measured in thousands of btu/capita (energy information administration, multiple years).
What is enabled by an increase in oxygen to near present levels?
it is plausible that the emergence of metazoans at the end of the neoproterozoic was enabled by an increase in oxygen to nearpresent levels
Why does methane connect with the oxygen story?
methane connects with the oxygen story because the availability of oxidants in the atmosphere and ocean determines the rate at which methane is converted to co2
Why do the d13C fluctuations connect to the oxygen story?
more generally, the d13c fluctuations connect to the oxygen story through the burial of organic carbon because accumulation of o2 and other oxidants in the atmosphere-ocean system requires that organic carbon be sequestered where it cannot be immediately reoxidized
the oxygen story is woven throughout the neoproterozoic. it is plausible that the emergence of metazoans at the end of the neoproterozoic was enabled by an increase in oxygen to nearpresent levels. methane connects with the oxygen story because the availability of oxidants in the atmosphere and ocean determines the rate at which methane is converted to co2. more generally, the d13c fluctuations connect to the oxygen story through the burial of organic carbon because accumulation of o2 and other oxidants in the atmosphere-ocean system requires that organic carbon be sequestered where it cannot be immediately reoxidized. unambiguous proxies of oxygen accumulation are not available for the neoproterozoic, but mass-independent fractionation of sulfur decisively identifies a great oxidation event at the beginning of the proterozoic, and that period, too, exhibits large-amplitude d13c fluctuations (canfield 2005). it is reasonable to assume by way of analogy that the d13c fluctuations of the neoproterozoic also had something to do with adjustment of the carbon cycle to a more oxygenated world, especially in view of the fact that the analogy is strengthened by the occurrence of low-latitude glaciations in both the neoproterozoic and paleoproterozoic. oxygen need not accumulate in the form of free o2. instead, it can accumulate in the oceans as sulfate (so2 - 4), produced by oxidative weathering of pyrite (fes2) on land. sulfate-reducing bacteria in the ocean can use sulfate to oxidize organic matter and liberate co2 and h2s. if nutrients limit productivity of sulfate reducers, then an ocean can be anoxic but rich in both sulfate and organic carbon. active sulfate reduction in an ocean, which can be detected through sulfur isotope fractionation, indicates the accumulation of an amount of oxygen in the atmosphere sufficient to permit oxidative weathering of pyrite. the reappearance of banded iron formations (bifs) in the neoproterozoic, after a long absence, also indicates that something interesting was going on with oxygen during this time. formation of bifs requires that large amounts of soluble iron must first exist in the ocean, which can happen only if major portions of the ocean are anoxic. the reservoir also must be low in sulfate; if sulfate is present in considerable quantities, sulfate-reducing bacteria can use it as an oxidizing
Did mean meridional cells for the 1990s and 2090s reveal any change?
examination of the mean meridional cells for the 1990s and 2090s did not reveal any noticeable changes in the position of the cells
What did the GCM sensitivity experiments (Wang and Rossow 1998) show?
gcm sensitivity experiments (wang and rossow 1998) show that moving clouds from the midtroposphere to either the upper or lower troposphere increases atmospheric static stability and reduces latent heating in the tropics
ferrel cell over midto high latitudes also weakens by  10%-15%. examination of the mean meridional cells for the 1990s and 2090s did not reveal any noticeable changes in the position of the cells. a weakening of the ferrel cell is expected from the decrease in the latitudinal temperature gradient (fig. 21). the decrease in the overall intensity of the hadley circulation, however, is not what one would anticipate from the increase in tropical surface temperatures (sst increases are similar to the surface air temperature changes shown in fig. 19), nor from changes in latitudinal temperature gradient over low latitudes (which are small, see fig. 21). the explanation appears to be as follows. gcm sensitivity experiments (wang and rossow 1998) show that moving clouds from the midtroposphere to either the upper or lower troposphere increases atmospheric static stability and reduces latent heating in the tropics, resulting in a weakened hadley circulation. in the csm, these processes also operate: there is an upward shift in cloudiness (fig. 31) and an increase in overall static stability in the tropics (mostly over the oceans; figure 22), which suppresses tropical convection4and thus the hadley circulation.
What did the model indicate will happen for the coastal forest profile?
the area of the coastal forest profiles would change little but that most communities would increase in area
What would an increase in area of coastal forest communities come at the expense of?
largely at the expense of the subalpine-tundra profiles but also at the expense of the great basin woodlands
What did the model show will happen to the Sitka coastal conifer forest?
the profile of one community, the sitka coastal conifer forest, a minor component of the flora of the northwest, would disappear early in the century
to illustrate the utility of the models for assessing response to a change in climate, we use the average global warming predictions from two gcms that, for the current century, suggest that temperatures should rise by ca. 5  c and precipitation should increase by ca. 27% (126 mm) in our geographic window, but the ranges vary from 3.4  c to 6.5  c for temperature and from  11%  38 mm) to 224% (1174 mm) for precipitation. community profiles in using the plurality of votes to predict the future distribution of contemporary profiles, all pixels are assigned to one of the 25 communities. votes cast by the random forests algorithm, summarized for groups of similar communities (table 5), indicate that the area of the coastal forest profiles would change little but that most communities would increase in area, largely at the expense of the subalpine-tundra profiles but also at the expense of the great basin woodlands. the profile of one community, the sitka coastal conifer forest, a minor component of the flora of the northwest, would disappear early in the century. the spatial shifting of community profiles would be extensive, however, involving ca. 45% of our geographic window. by the end of the century, therefore, only 55% of the pixels in the window would exhibit the same community profile they do today. projected changes in area of community profiles follow disparate patterns across the century (table 5). while the area allocated to the great plains profile would remain relatively constant, that for the profiles of some communities (e.g., grasslands, madrean) would decline in area early and increase later, and that for profiles of others (e.g., desertscrub) would increase early but decrease later, while those of still others would increase steadily in area (e.g., evergreen forests
Why is the societal impacts research is important?
an implication of this research for policy is that decision making at local levels (e.g., related to land use, insurance, building codes, warning and evacuation) can have a profound effect on the magnitude and significance of future damage, much more in fact than can efforts to modulate the incidence of extreme events via energy policies
Is there any exemple that proofs it's necessity?
consider the case of tropical cyclone impacts (the following case study is developed in detail in pielke, klein sarewitz, 2000). fig. 1 shows economic damage (adjusted for inflation) related to hurricane landfalls in the united states, 1900-2001 (updated from pielke landsea, 1999
Does the frequency of hurricanes have increased somehow?
in fact, while hurricane frequencies have varied a great deal over the past 100 years, they have not increased in recent decades in parallel with increasing damages (fig. 2, provided courtesy of c. landsea et al., noaa, cf. landsea et al., pielke, mestas-nun~ez, knaff, 1999
but research into the societal impacts of extreme events repeatedly shows that societal vulnerability is the single most important factor in the growing damage related to extreme events (e.g., kunkel, pielke, changnon, 1999). an implication of this research for policy is that decision making at local levels (e.g., related to land use, insurance, building codes, warning and evacuation) can have a profound effect on the magnitude and significance of future damage, much more in fact than can efforts to modulate the incidence of extreme events via energy policies. consider the case of tropical cyclone impacts (the following case study is developed in detail in pielke, klein sarewitz, 2000). fig. 1 shows economic damage (adjusted for inflation) related to hurricane landfalls in the united states, 1900-2001 (updated from pielke landsea, 1999). although damage is growing in both frequency and intensity, this trend does not reflect increased frequency or strength of hurricanes. in fact, while hurricane frequencies have varied a great deal over the past 100 years, they have not increased in recent decades in parallel with increasing damages (fig. 2, provided courtesy of c. landsea et al., noaa, cf. landsea et al., pielke, mestas-nun~ez, knaff, 1999). to the contrary, although damage increased during the 1970s and 1980s, hurricane activity was considerably lower than in previous decades. figure 2. u.s. hurricane landfalls, 1851-1998, figure courtesy of c. landsea.
Who in the world is at risk due to climate change?
all of us are placed at risk by climate change
What determines how badly you will be affected with climate change?
the degree to which any population will be exposed to the worst extremes of climate change is related to their geographical location in relation to latitude, land masses and the patterns of the changes experienced
Are modern homes up to par for upcoming possible changes?
the ability of the modern house dweller to cope with extreme heat is dependent on their ability to pay for the energy to run coolers and the availability of electricity to run them
all of us are placed at risk by climate change. some of us are more at risk than others, and for some that risk will prove catastrophic. it is fundamentally important to understand the nature of that risk in order to be able to future-proof the lives of individuals against it in the face of the rapidly changing circumstances of the twenty-first century. 1 risk we believe, is composed of three elements: 1. the vulnerability of the person to a climate risk is influenced by the design and fabric of the buildings they occupy, and their habits, age, health and wealth. people in traditional buildings often have well-understood capabilities of adapting their buildings and seasonal and diurnal lifestyles to extend the range of climatic conditions they can occupy safely and comfortably. for those who live in settlements in already exposed locations such as hot deserts, in ' modern ' houses with thin walls and roofs, large windows, dependent on air conditioning, they are either infinitely more vulnerable to changes in climate, or less so, than those in traditional, thick-walled houses with shading and deep basements. the ability of the modern house dweller to cope with extreme heat is dependent on their ability to pay for the energy to run coolers and the availability of electricity to run them. in the traditional house the ability to adapt the house lies with the homeowner, who is not at the mercy of the local grid and economy, utility prices, their own wealth and the global availability of oil. the young and the old, the weak and the sick are also more vulnerable to climate extremes. 2. the idea of the exposure of a person deals with the third element in the symbiotic triangle that ties people to their ecosystem and climate, and in turn to the bricks and mortar of their homes. the degree to which any population will be exposed to the worst extremes of climate change is related to their geographical location in relation to latitude, land masses and the patterns of the changes experienced. some areas of the world will experience far faster and more extreme warming, in particular in the high latitudes of the northern hemisphere and towards the centres of land masses in areas with ' continental ' climates. geographically, the ' exposure ' of britain to swings of temperature has been damped by its island status, benefiting as it does from the thermal inertia of the vast oceans that surround it and are stirred towards more free ebooks http://fast-file.blogspot.com
How many model simulations were used to investigate the processes relating northern and southern highlatitude temperatures?
to investigate the processes relating northern and southern highlatitude temperatures, three model simulations using idealized freshwater discharge scenarios are shown in fig. 1
What causes a partial shutdown of the deepwater formation and a cooling in the North Atlantic region, according to case A?
for case a, the freshwater discharge into the north atlantic leads to a partial shutdown of the deepwater formation and a cooling in the north atlantic region
What does the similarity of southern temperature time series with the freshwater forcing in the North Atlantic suggest?
the similarity of southern temperature time series with the freshwater forcing in the north atlantic is also simulated for different scenarios (not shown) and thus suggests a direct process by which northern freshwater discharge affects southern temperature
to investigate the processes relating northern and southern highlatitude temperatures, three model simulations using idealized freshwater discharge scenarios are shown in fig. 1. for case a, the freshwater discharge into the north atlantic leads to a partial shutdown of the deepwater formation and a cooling in the north atlantic region. the subsequent recovery to warm conditions coincides approximately with the cooling in the southern ocean region. for both cases b and c, the freshwater discharge is sufficient to stop the meridional overturning completely, causing a cooling in the north and a warming in the south. while the cooling in the north atlantic has a similar magnitude in cases b and c, the southern ocean warming is larger for a larger freshwater input. this is in contradiction with the classical 'thermal bipolar seesaw' picture, in which southern temperature is determined by northern temperature only20. in addition, southern temperature in case c starts to decrease several centuries before the onset of northern temperature increase. the similarity of southern temperature time series with the freshwater forcing in the north atlantic is also simulated for different scenarios (not shown) and thus suggests a direct process by which northern freshwater discharge affects southern temperature. to elucidate the physics of this process, equilibrium simulations using a sustained freshwater input into the north atlantic of zero, 0.5 and 1.0 sv (control, f0.5 and f1.0, respectively; 1 sv  1/4  106m3s2 1) were performed. figure 2a shows the simulated
What is system's vulnerability to climate change ?
a function of both its exposure to climatic risks and its adaptive capacity to deal with these risks
What are Analysis of vulnerability to climate change
an understanding of the processes by which adaptation occurs, the factors determining adaptive capacity, and the way climatic risks will change in the future
What is the first stage for assessing the vulnerability of communities?
the first stage is to assess current vulnerability by documenting exposures
a system's vulnerability to climate change is a function of both its exposure to climatic risks and its adaptive capacity to deal with these risks. arctic communities have demonstrated significant adaptability in the past, but there is concern that future changes in conditions may exceed conventional coping capacities. analysis of vulnerability to climate change requires an understanding of the processes by which adaptation occurs, the factors determining adaptive capacity, and the way climatic risks will change in the future. we have presented an analytical framework, based on recent research, for assessing the vulnerability of communities empirically. the first stage is to assess current vulnerability by documenting exposures and current
What is consistent with observations of Wang et al. (2006)?
the model result is consistent with observations of wang et al. (2006
What can we divide the meridional moisture transport through 30degN?
we can divide the meridional moisture transport through 30degn into three components
What are the three components?
1) the meridional wind change qsawp 2) the specific humidity change sawp q and 3) the product of the zonal wind and specific humidity changes
united states east of the rocky mountains, as shown in fig. 2d. the model result is consistent with observations of wang et al. (2006) who found a negative correlation between the awp index and rainfall anomalies in the central united states, and is also consistent with the results of ruiz-barradas and nigam (2005) and mestasnunez et al. (2007). again, we can divide the meridional moisture transport through 30degn into three components contributed by 1) the meridional wind change qsawp 2) the specific humidity change sawp q and 3) the product of the zonal wind and specific humidity changes  q figure 6 shows that the meridional wind change of qsawp is a dominant term, and sawp q and  q
What are the other factors that leads to the effects of climate change on mountain slope stability ?
important effects of climate change on mountain slope stability are furthermore related to warming and thawing of permafrost
where does permafrost exists ?
permafrost exists in many steep rock slopes in highmountain environments
why are the mechanisms of permafrost degradation and related slope stability regarded as complex ?
because of the complexity of interacting processes
important effects of climate change on mountain slope stability are furthermore related to warming and thawing of permafrost. permafrost exists in many steep rock slopes in highmountain environments and its degradation due to global warming can affect slope stability. although this link might be intuitively clear, the mechanisms of permafrost degradation and related slope stability are rather complex, and the corresponding research field is relatively young (gruber and haeberli, 2007). as a result, many aspects and links remain uncertain to date because of the complexity of interacting processes. evidence comes from a number of recent slope failures in permafrost areas (figure 4), including mass movements at scales that range over several orders of magnitude from block
what their survey of adaptation in IAMs suggest?
firstly, they suggest that most adaptation occurs in response to extreme events, as opposed to gradual climate change, which is much harder to detect. in this context, they also cite the psychology/behavioral economics literature which suggests that individuals have a difficult time dealing with decisions involving low probability/high damage events
what the psychology/behavioral economics literature suggest?
in this context, they also cite the psychology/behavioral economics literature which suggests that individuals have a difficult time dealing with decisions involving low probability/high damage events
how Quiggin and Horowitz describe climate change?
quiggin and horowitz (2003) describe climate change as something which destroys information: "this information may in some cases be represented by formal probability distributions over temperature and rainfall derived from historical records. more frequently, it is the informal knowledge of particular local climates that is acquired by attentive individuals over a long period (quiggin and horowitz 2003, 444
in their survey of adaptation in iams, patt et al. (2010) make the case that such models are very likely to overstate producers' adaptation response to climate change. firstly, they suggest that most adaptation occurs in response to extreme events, as opposed to gradual climate change, which is much harder to detect. in this context, they also cite the psychology/behavioral economics literature which suggests that individuals have a difficult time dealing with decisions involving low probability/high damage events. when adaptation involves significant investments, either in infrastructure protection against extreme events, or in new technologies, high discount rates and credit constraints can make these investments difficult and, in the presence of significant uncertainties, there is a strong tendency to postpone the investments until some of the uncertainty is resolved. while these latter three factors are consistent with rational, inter-temporal optimization, they reflect considerations (high private discount rates, credit rationing and option values) that are generally not present in iams. therefore the models will likely overstate the actual adaptation undertaken. the problem of uncertainty associated with climate change is exacerbated by the associated information deficit - particularly in developing countries. quiggin and horowitz (2003) describe climate change as something which destroys information: "this information may in some cases be represented by formal probability distributions over temperature and rainfall derived from historical records. more frequently, it is the informal knowledge of particular local climates that is acquired by attentive individuals over a long period (quiggin and horowitz 2003, 444)." this loss of privately acquired information is particularly problematic in africa, where public institutions have a poor track record of investing in the production and dissemination of new information about changing climate conditions (a. g. patt, ogallo, and hellmuth 2007).
What defines the Paquier event?
the relatively parochial record of the black shale that defines the paquier event 
What was an alternative to the global model?
in an alternative to a global model, erbacher et al (2001) favour increased carbon burial related to water mass stratification caused by an increase in run-off into semi-restricted basins (tethys and proto-atlantic), and draw parallels with the formation of quaternary mediterranean sapropels
What did Herrle sugest in 2003?
herrle (2003) suggests that a monsoonal climate prevailed and that the black shale was deposited under conditions of strongly fluctuating surface-water fertility
rapid climate change in the greenhouse world 1903 vated organic productivity could have followed effusion of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere and consequent rise in temperature (gr"ocke et al 2002). the relatively parochial record of the black shale that defines the paquier event implies an additional regional control on the accumulation of organic matter. detailed organicgeochemical studies of the organic matter show that it is entirely different from those of other cretaceous black shales, being dominated by the remains of archaea rather than phytoplankton and there is no biomarker evidence for a sulphidic water column (kuypers et al 2002 a ). in an alternative to a global model, erbacher et al (2001) favour increased carbon burial related to water mass stratification caused by an increase in run-off into semi-restricted basins (tethys and proto-atlantic), and draw parallels with the formation of quaternary mediterranean sapropels. herrle (2003) suggests that a monsoonal climate prevailed and that the black shale was deposited under conditions of strongly fluctuating surface-water fertility.
What was the PSSMS developed for?
middle school students
When was it created?
pssms; goodenow, 1993b
What other items is it used for?
pertaining specifically to one's coach/teacher, reflect perceived support (e.g., "the teachers here respect me" and "most teachers at [name of school] are interested in me") and did not load with the relatedness items in allen's investigation. sixteen of the 18 items3 from goodenow's (1993b) scale were modified (e.g., "i am included in lots of activities at [name of school]" was changed to "i am included in lots of activities
participants completed a modified version of the psychological sense of school membership scale (pssms; goodenow, 1993b) that was developed for middle school students. although goodenow (1993b) has treated the pssms as a unidimensional scale to assess perceived belonging, recent research in the sport context (allen, 2006), consistent with early development of the pssms (goodenow, 1993a), has supported the use of only some of the items to assess perceived relatedness. other items, pertaining specifically to one's coach/teacher, reflect perceived support (e.g., "the teachers here respect me" and "most teachers at [name of school] are interested in me") and did not load with the relatedness items in allen's investigation. sixteen of the 18 items3 from goodenow's (1993b) scale were modified (e.g., "i am included in lots of activities at [name of school]" was changed to "i am included in lots of activities
What are two of the biggest concerns with climate change?
human and animal health issues are only two of many concerns, albeit quite crucial
What are the implications for the food chain?
abnormal changes in air temperature and rainfall and the increasing frequency and intensity of drought and floods have long-term implications for the viability and productivity of world agro-ecosystems
What can we do to help?
if vulnerable communities can be helped by significant investments in health services and improved management of climate-sensitive diseases in the immediate future, then humans will at least face the potential impacts of climate change with a lower baseline of infections
climate change is emerging as one of the main challenges that humankind will have to face for many years to come. human and animal health issues are only two of many concerns, albeit quite crucial. climate change could also become a major threat to world food security, as it has a strong impact on food production, access and distribution. abnormal changes in air temperature and rainfall and the increasing frequency and intensity of drought and floods have long-term implications for the viability and productivity of world agro-ecosystems (31). from a public health perspective, scientists anticipate that global climate change will have a range of impacts, mostly adverse, upon human health. while some impacts will result from direct changes in physical living conditions, many will reflect more complex changes in the biophysical and ecological systems that determine the prospects for population health (26). while the implications of future climate change are complex and difficult to assess, it is certain that infectious zoonotic diseases will have an increased impact on global health issues and their control will be a major factor in social wellbeing. if vulnerable communities can be helped by significant investments in health services and improved management of climate-sensitive diseases in the immediate future, then humans will at least face the potential impacts of climate change with a lower baseline of infections. under global warming conditions, the climate tolerance limits of vectors are likely to expand northwards and southwards, creating favourable conditions for vectors to colonise new ecosystems and animal populations in temperate regions. these changes in the geographical distribution of vectors will also affect the distribution of vector-borne diseases, with a yet-unknown impact on animal and human health. forecasting such changes should be envisaged at the international level for diseases such as bluetongue, rift valley fever, west nile fever and other vector-borne diseases, through co-ordinated research programmes. monitoring environmental predictors to forecast potential epidemics of rvf in time and space is still considered a growing field. however, establishing early warning systems based on this approach can and should be used to minimise the impact on livestock and human health. this is mostly possible because there is a reasonable understanding of disease epidemic cycles, which could change in a changing environment. in the context of climate change, it is even more important to develop such early warning systems and extend them to other diseases which also have major health impacts. following the recent pattern of el nino-southern oscillation effects, episodes of rvf may become more frequent, with shorter intervals between epizootics, justifying the need to invest in effective, national, regional and global early warning systems for vector-borne diseases. climatic seasonal forecasts and other predictors (ndvi, rainfall estimates) could further be used by national veterinary services to overcome some of the constraints on the maintenance of intensive ground surveillance and allow more sensitive predictions and comprehensive reviews of contingency plans. such tools are also important in maintaining levels of awareness, not only for livestockkeepers and villagers, but also for the financial and political wings of governments so that they can more appropriately allocate the necessary resources.
What quality will improve to built enviornment for reducing greenhouse-gas emissions and adapting to climate change?
by increasing the numbers of trees that provide shade against the sun, by reducing the density of road vehicles and their emissions, by making spaces more attractive and safer for walking, cycling, and outdoor recreation, by ensuring greater energy effi ciency in homes that are easier to keep both appropriately ventilated and warm in winter at lower cost,60 and by switching energy supplies for commercial and residential buildings to more renewable, less polluting sources
How many regions are having air pollution problem?
61 urban air pollution can therefore be considered in part a regional problem, and the improvement in local air quality will be aided considerably if neighbouring regions make similar energy adjustments
How we can improve to built environments?
there is now growing understanding of the measures that can improve built environments in ways that both reduce energy use and promote health. so-called green buildings combine the use of renewable energy and energy effi ciency measures and the use of non-petrochemical products and wood from sustainable forestry
the co-benefi ts of a transition towards cleaner and more effi cient use of energy in the urban environment were outlined in this series.59 the twin objectives of reducing greenhouse-gas emissions and adapting to climate change will entail measures that usually also help improve the quality of the built environment for local residents--eg, by increasing the numbers of trees that provide shade against the sun, by reducing the density of road vehicles and their emissions, by making spaces more attractive and safer for walking, cycling, and outdoor recreation, by ensuring greater energy effi ciency in homes that are easier to keep both appropriately ventilated and warm in winter at lower cost,60 and by switching energy supplies for commercial and residential buildings to more renewable, less polluting sources. much of the air pollution in urban settings (at least in terms of secondary particles) arises from distant rather than local sources through the transport of polluted air masses.61 urban air pollution can therefore be considered in part a regional problem, and the improvement in local air quality will be aided considerably if neighbouring regions make similar energy adjustments. technology alone could be insuffi cient to bring about substantial reductions in energy use, however, because of the propensity for people to use the resources they can aff ord--eg, responding to increased home heating effi ciency by increasing indoor temperature with no net change in energy use, (which could sometimes be appropriate from a health perspective because cold homes are associated with increased winter mortality in the uk62). furthermore, the turnover in housing stock is often extremely slow. in the uk, as in many other settings, most of the houses that will be lived in over this century are already built. even if it is now possible to construct dwellings with very low energy needs, it will be many years before such dwellings begin to make a substantial impression on housing-related carbon dioxide emissions, particularly if the (appreciable) energy consumption involved in construction is taken into account. energy effi ciency retrofi tting can in theory be applied to a large part of the existing stock, but the eff ect on greenhouse-gas emissions might be disappointing, except where a switch is made to renewable energy sources. another factor is the inherent inertia of strategic planning imposed, for example, by the fact that urban environments are long established in their basic layout and not easily alterable. thus, in the short term, there is limited capacity to reverse unwelcome major develop ments of the past. nonetheless, there is now growing understanding of the measures that can improve built environments in ways that both reduce energy use and promote health. so-called green buildings combine the use of renewable energy and energy effi ciency measures and the use of non-petrochemical products and wood from sustainable forestry. a substantial eff ect will be achieved not through one major intervention, but through several parallel steps, which include behav ioural change, planning, targeted programmes, and enabling policies.
where Integrated assessment models, carbon budgets of 2 degC are increased?
in most integrated assessment models, 2 degc carbon budgets are effectively increased through the adoption of negative-emission technologies
how many scenarios removed assume well-defined, large-scale absorption of negative-emission communications?
344
in which year were global emissions peaks recorded?
2010
in most integrated assessment models, 2 degc carbon budgets are effectively increased through the adoption of negative-emission technologies. these technologies are currently at little more than a conceptual stage of development, yet are ubiquitous within 2 degc scenarios. nowhere is this more evident than in the ipcc's scenario database6. of the 400 scenarios that have a 50% or better chance of no more than 2 degc warming (with three scenarios removed due to incomplete data), 344 assume the successful and large-scale uptake of negative-emission technologies. even more worryingly, in all 56 scenarios without negative emissions, global emissions peak around 2010, which is contrary to available emissions data7. in plain language, the complete set of 400 ipcc scenarios for a 50% or better chance of meeting the 2 degc target work on the basis of either an ability to change the past, or the successful and large-scale uptake of negative-emission technologies. a significant proportion of the scenarios are dependent on both.
Why in 2001 San Diego Electricity was  high?
in 2001 in san diego, when electricity costs nearly tripled because of corruption in the enron corporation
What was the final straw for families fighting to afford to keep their homes?
because of hotter summer
What might be  the  factor for some  poorer communities  continue to battle for survival in regions of extreme climate?
the death of the mall
valley, which has been carpeted over the past two decades with wall-to-wall tract housing developments, is that it is one of the hottest places in the usa. when the outside air temperature is 120 deg f (60 deg c) and the house you live in has little or no insulation, and is made of little more than fibro (chip) board and matchsticks, you either keep the air conditioning on, visit the air-conditioned mall or possibly die. in 2001 in san diego, when electricity costs nearly tripled because of corruption in the enron corporation, the elderly in some streets had to use one house to live in and share a refrigerator to ensure that they had access to coolth at all. to make matters worse, the increasing heat islands in cities like phoenix, fuelled by more bitumen surfaces, more hot air conditioning exhaust emissions, more people and higher temperatures with climate change, has been driving up temperatures year on year. it is the confluence of factors that has proved catastrophic and this case, where total dependence on air conditioning has meant that small changes in its cost to run and the amount needed because of hotter summers, may prove to be the final straw for families fighting to afford to keep their homes. in such areas where dependence on air conditioning is complete other aspects of economic recession will have a major impact on the livability of regions. for instance, the death of the mall may be a factor in whether some poorer communities can continue to battle for survival in regions of extreme climate.
What did the Red List criteria determine?
on average, nearly two (1.84) of the four red list criteria applied here concurrently determined a threatened taxon's red list status (table 2
What happens to the total number of criteria?
the total number of criteria met rises with increasing severity of the future scenarios
What does Criterion A3 indicate?
criterion a3 indicates climate change impacts, whereas criterion a4 indicates land use change impacts (table 1). comparing the relative importance of these future threats based on table 2 is difficult as both land use and climate change affect criterion b
on average, nearly two (1.84) of the four red list criteria applied here concurrently determined a threatened taxon's red list status (table 2). the total number of criteria met rises with increasing severity of the future scenarios. the geographic range criteria b1 and b2 were met the most, but with increasing severity of the future scenarios the population reduction criteria a3 and a4 were met increasingly. criterion a3 indicates climate change impacts, whereas criterion a4 indicates land use change impacts (table 1). comparing the relative importance of these future threats based on table 2 is difficult as both land use and climate change affect criterion b.
A government that is interested in re-election has to do what?
take voters' preferences into account
Based on economic selfinterest, individuals from less developed (poorer) countries are predicted to be more likely to do what?
use equity principles like egalitarian, polluter-pays, ability-to-pay, and poor losers as the application of all of them reduces the financial burdens on their countries
finally, fairness considerations of the public in the individual's country could also play a more direct role for the use of specific equity arguments. as international climate negotiations are (sometimes) highly recognized by the public at home, a government that is interested in re-election has to, at least to some degree, take voters' preferences into account. hence, national voters' preferences may indirectly influence the outcome of international climate negotiations (for a more detailed discussion see congleton, 1992; vogt, 2002; lange and vogt, 2003; bohringer and vogt, 2004). in this paper we empirically analyze the importance of equity in international climate policy. we explicitly consider the desired degree of incorporation of the different equity rules which have been described above. these views of agents involved in international climate policy are then interacted with characteristics of the agents' countries of origin. based on economic selfinterest, individuals from less developed (poorer) countries are predicted to be more likely to use equity principles like egalitarian, polluter-pays, ability-to-pay, and poor losers as the application of all of them reduces the financial burdens on their countries. the importance of the respective equity rule may also change over time. while a strict application of a single rule (e.g., the egalitarian principle) can involve huge wealth transfers and thereby prohibitively high costs for industrialized countries in the short-run, the use of the same rule might get feasible in the long-run. in this vein, prominent proposals like "contraction and convergence" combine different equity principles and shift their respective weight as a function of time. therefore, we also analyze the stated degree of incorporation of the equity rules in international climate policy in the short-term and long-term time horizon.
what does part III provide?
part iii provides an integrated assessment of possible mitigation pathways and the respective sectoral contributions and implications
what does chapter 5 provide?
chapter 5 (drivers, trends and mitigation) provides the context for the subsequent chapters by outlining global trends in stocks and flows of greenhouse gases (ghgs) and short-lived climate pollutants by means of different accounting methods that provide complementary perspectives on the past
what does chapter 6 provide?
chapter 6 (assessing transformation pathways) analyses 1200 new scenarios generated by 31 modelling teams around the world to explore the economic, technological and institutional prerequisites and implications of mitigation pathways with different levels of ambition
part iii provides an integrated assessment of possible mitigation pathways and the respective sectoral contributions and implications. it combines cross-sectoral and sectoral information on long-term mitigation pathways and shortto mid-term mitigation options in major economic sectors. chapter 5 (drivers, trends and mitigation) provides the context for the subsequent chapters by outlining global trends in stocks and flows of greenhouse gases (ghgs) and short-lived climate pollutants by means of different accounting methods that provide complementary perspectives on the past. it also discusses emissions drivers, which informs the assessment of how ghg emissions have historically developed. chapter 6 (assessing transformation pathways) analyses 1200 new scenarios generated by 31 modelling teams around the world to explore the economic, technological and institutional prerequisites and implications of mitigation pathways with different levels of ambition. the sectoral chapters (chapter 7 - 11) and chapter 12 (human settlements, infrastructure and spatial planning) provide information on the different mitigation options across energy systems, transport, buildings, industry, agriculture, forestry and other land use as well as options specific to human settlements and infrastructure, including the possible co-benefits, adverse side-effects and costs that may be associated with each of these options. pathways described in chapter 6 are discussed in a sector-specific context.
what percentage of species predicted to have no suitable climate in 100 years?
the percentage of species predicted to have no suitable climate in 100 years on local gradients as a consequence of climate warming alone was relatively low (table 1): 3%, on average, among all vertebrate groups (fig. 3) and 4% among all montane regions (fig. 4
where is it found Most of the diversity of vertebrates?
most vertebrate diversity lies in the bottom third of elevational gradients (mccain 2009 and references therein) and vertebrate elevational ranges are relatively large (averages herein 920 m) compared with the projected upslope shift of thermal zones (minimum c. 350 m, median c. 600 m, maximum c. 930 m shift
under projected temperature increases alone, the only population extirpations expected are  mountaintop extirpations  in which no part of the gradient is projected to remain cool enough to allow population persistence (e.g. colwell et al. 2008; la sorte jetz 2010). the percentage of species predicted to have no suitable climate in 100 years on local gradients as a consequence of climate warming alone was relatively low (table 1): 3%, on average, among all vertebrate groups (fig. 3) and 4% among all montane regions (fig. 4). most vertebrate diversity lies in the bottom third of elevational gradients (mccain 2009 and references therein) and vertebrate elevational ranges are relatively large (averages herein 920 m) compared with the projected upslope shift of thermal zones (minimum c. 350 m, median c. 600 m, maximum c. 930 m shift). thus, as climate warms, most species, even those at high
What imposes a large disease burden on low-income populations and impedes prospects for development?
he absence of reliable access to clean energy and the services it provides imposes a large disease burden on low-income populations and impedes prospects for development
What cause substantial ill-health from air pollution and occupational hazards?
current patterns of fossil-fuel use cause substantial ill-health from air pollution and occupational hazards
What are the several to transform global markets?
there are several technological options, policy levers, and economic instruments for sectors such as power generation, transport, agriculture, and the built environment. however, barriers to change include vested interests, political inertia, inability to take meaningful action, profound global inequalities, weak technology-transfer mechanisms, and knowledge gaps that must be addressed to transform global markets
the absence of reliable access to clean energy and the services it provides imposes a large disease burden on low-income populations and impedes prospects for development. furthermore, current patterns of fossil-fuel use cause substantial ill-health from air pollution and occupational hazards. impending climate change, mainly driven by energy use, now also threatens health. policies to promote access to non-polluting and sustainable sources of energy have great potential both to improve public health and to mitigate (prevent) climate disruption. there are several technological options, policy levers, and economic instruments for sectors such as power generation, transport, agriculture, and the built environment. however, barriers to change include vested interests, political inertia, inability to take meaningful action, profound global inequalities, weak technology-transfer mechanisms, and knowledge gaps that must be addressed to transform global markets. the need for policies that prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate while addressing the energy needs of disadvantaged people is a central challenge of the current era. a comprehensive programme for clean energy should optimise mitigation and, simultaneously, adaption to climate change while maximising co-benefi ts for health--eg, through improved air, water, and food quality. intersectoral research and concerted action, both nationally and internationally, will be required.
What do second-generation vulnerability assessments acknowledge?
that it is not the mere availability of adaptation options but the capacity of people to actually implement these options that determines their vulnerability to climate change
What is the main difference between second-generation vulnerability assessments and first-generation vulnerability assessments?
the more thorough assessment of society's ability to effectively respond to anticipated risks through various kinds of adaptations
second-generation vulnerability assessments are conducted to estimate realistically thevulnerabilityofcertainsectorsorregionstoclimatechange,inconcertwithother stress factors and considering the potential of feasible adaptations to reduce adverse impacts. they acknowledge that it is not the mere availability of adaptation options but the capacity of people to actually implement these options that determines their vulnerability to climate change. the main difference, compared to first-generation vulnerability assessments, is thus the more thorough assessment of society's ability to effectively respond to anticipated risks through various kinds of adaptations. in so doing they help to prioritize the allocation of resources for adaptation measures. if limits to adaptation are identified for valued systems, this provides important information for the determination of critical levels of climate change. the results correspond most closely to the 'realistic farmer' trajectory in figure 1. the conceptual framework for a second-generation vulnerability assessment is shown in figure 5. two elements have been added in comparison to figure 4. adaptive capacity: the ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences. the adaptive capacity of a system or society describes its ability to modify its characteristics or behaviour so as to cope better with changes in external conditions.
What are the benefits of improved climate modelling?
improved climate modelling will help to constrain future expectations of extreme meteorological events in terms of frequency, scale, and temporal and spatial distribution
How can the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) 2005-15 be described?
the hfa outlines a broad-based vision of disaster risk reduction, encompassing governance, risk assessment and warning, knowledge and education, risk management and vulnerability reduction, and disaster preparedness and response
improved climate modelling will help to constrain future expectations of extreme meteorological events in terms of frequency, scale, and temporal and spatial distribution. developments in global monitoring, especially satellite technology and improved communications, can help to provide short-term alerts of windstorms and fl oods and early warnings of droughts and heatwaves, allowing eff ective emergency management planning and water resource and supply arrangements. improved coordinated responses by international agencies to extreme droughts and fl oods will help to reduce the public health eff ects of these events and ensure a rapid return to normality. the 2005 un world conference on disaster reduction and its output, the hyogo framework for action (hfa) 2005-15, articulated for the fi rst time a common international perspective on interventions and priorities. the hfa outlines a broad-based vision of disaster risk reduction, encompassing governance, risk assessment and warning, knowledge and education, risk management and vulnerability reduction, and disaster preparedness and response.165 this vision is perfectly applicable to the future threats presented by climate-change-related extreme events, and is now being developed to produce concrete indicators for disaster risk reduction and disaster resilience nationally and locally.166,167
what is the one implication of the inertia?
climate impacts ''in the pipeline'' may be much greater than the impacts that we presently observe
does slow climate feedbacks have a certain response time?
the response time of these slow feedbacks is uncertain
what is the inertia of energy system infrastructure?
the time required to replace fossil fuel energy systems
inertia of the climate system reduces the near-term impact of human-made climate forcings, but that inertia is not necessarily our friend. one implication of the inertia is that climate impacts ''in the pipeline'' may be much greater than the impacts that we presently observe. slow climate feedbacks add further danger of climate change running out of humanity's control. the response time of these slow feedbacks is uncertain, but there is evidence that some of these feedbacks already are underway, at least to a minor degree. paleoclimate data show that on century and millennial time scales the slow feedbacks are predominately amplifying feedbacks. the inertia of energy system infrastructure, i.e., the time required to replace fossil fuel energy systems, will make it exceedingly difficult to avoid a level of atmospheric co2 that would eventually have highly undesirable consequences. the danger of uncontrollable and irreversible consequences necessarily raises the question of whether it is feasible to extract co2 from the atmosphere on a large enough scale to affect climate change.
What percent of farmers are vulnerable in Kola?
out of the total households surveyed in kola, 99.4 percent of the farmers are vulnerable at present or will be vulnerable in the future (fall above the 50 percent cutoff line
At what minimum daily income, the farmers in kola will not become  vulnerable in future?
where as the remaining 0.36 percent of the farmers are not vulnerable at present or will not be vulnerable in the near future when the scenario of minimum daily income is fixed at 1.25 usd per day
Which districts are least vulnerable according to sensitivity analysis?
the results of the sensitivity analysis indicate that the surveyed districts in beneshangul gumz and snnp are the most vulnerable under all of the tested scenarios, while the districts in oromia are the least vulnerable under all scenarios (table 8
out of the total households surveyed in kola, 99.4 percent of the farmers are vulnerable at present or will be vulnerable in the future (fall above the 50 percent cutoff line); where as the remaining 0.36 percent of the farmers are not vulnerable at present or will not be vulnerable in the near future when the scenario of minimum daily income is fixed at 1.25 usd per day. the same line of explanation also holds for the rest of the scenarios across different agro-ecologies as depicted in table 7. as indicated in section 3.2, the sampled districts were selected to represent the different attributes of the basin, not those of the different regional states represented in the basin. thus, the following results do not reflect the vulnerability levels of regional states, but rather the vulnerability of the surveyed districts. the results of the sensitivity analysis indicate that the surveyed districts in beneshangul gumz and snnp are the most vulnerable under all of the tested scenarios, while the districts in oromia are the least vulnerable under all scenarios (table 8).
Tell me about climate and water and its possible changes?
this objective is achieved in the following ways. first, the most recent science available is used to characterize current climate and hydrology and its potential changes. second, country-specific survey and biophysical data is used to derive more realistic and accurate agricultural impact functions and simulations. a range of climate risks (i.e. warmer temperatures, higher carbon dioxide concentrations
What are the dynamic characteristics of flood drought and sea level rise?
changing characteristics of floods, droughts and potential sea level rise) is considered to gain a more complete picture of potential agriculture impacts. third, while estimating changes in production is important, economic responses may to some degree buffer against the physical losses predicted, and an assessment is made of these. food security is dependent not only on production stocks, but also future food requirements, income levels and commodity prices
Describe sensitivity analysis and limitations?
fourth, adaptation possibilities are identified for the sector. the framework established here can be used effectively to test such adaptation strategies. multiple models are used in this integrated study, and as with all models, parameters may not be known with precision and functional forms may not be fully accurate; thus, careful sensitivity analysis and a full understanding of limitations (identified throughout the study) are required
this objective is achieved in the following ways. first, the most recent science available is used to characterize current climate and hydrology and its potential changes. second, country-specific survey and biophysical data is used to derive more realistic and accurate agricultural impact functions and simulations. a range of climate risks (i.e. warmer temperatures, higher carbon dioxide concentrations, changing characteristics of floods, droughts and potential sea level rise) is considered to gain a more complete picture of potential agriculture impacts. third, while estimating changes in production is important, economic responses may to some degree buffer against the physical losses predicted, and an assessment is made of these. food security is dependent not only on production stocks, but also future food requirements, income levels and commodity prices. fourth, adaptation possibilities are identified for the sector. the framework established here can be used effectively to test such adaptation strategies. multiple models are used in this integrated study, and as with all models, parameters may not be known with precision and functional forms may not be fully accurate; thus, careful sensitivity analysis and a full understanding of limitations (identified throughout the study) are required.
What has study of Haywood and Valdes (2004) and Lunt et al demonstrated?
the coupled ocean-atmosphere modelling study of haywood and valdes (2004) and lunt et al. (2008) demonstrated that once the central american seaway closed a largely modern pattern of ocean circulation was established
What were the results for the Atlantic sector?
the results indicate that, in the pliocene case, aabw flow is either the same as, or locally slightly stronger than (1 to 6 sv) present. however the strength and depth of the north atlantic thermohaline circulation is reduced
What were the results for the Atlantic sector?
for the pacific ocean, the only significant change predicted is a reduction in aabw flow by 4 sv. these results implied both a shallowing and slight reduction in the strength of the thermohaline circulation, and a reduction in aabw flow mainly in the pacific ocean in the pliocene case (haywood and valdes, 2004
the coupled ocean-atmosphere modelling study of haywood and valdes (2004) and lunt et al. (2008) demonstrated that once the central american seaway closed a largely modern pattern of ocean circulation was established. however, significant differences in ocean surface current strength were predicted between the pliocene and pre-industrial experiments. of first order importance were the model's representation of the western (poleward flowing) and eastern (equatorward flowing) boundary currents. the strength of both gulf stream and kuroshio currents may have increased compared to present-day. the difference in meridional overturning streamfunction between the pliocene and pre-industrial coupled experiment indicate that for the pliocene coupled experiment the flow of antarctic bottom water (aabw) may have been reduced by a maximum of 5 sv. the rate of downwelling in the northern hemisphere also appears to be reduced by up to 3 sv. for the atlantic sector, the results indicate that, in the pliocene case, aabw flow is either the same as, or locally slightly stronger than (1 to 6 sv) present. however the strength and depth of the north atlantic thermohaline circulation is reduced. for the pacific ocean, the only significant change predicted is a reduction in aabw flow by 4 sv. these results implied both a shallowing and slight reduction in the strength of the thermohaline circulation, and a reduction in aabw flow mainly in the pacific ocean in the pliocene case (haywood and valdes, 2004).
Why is the understanding of climate change is still limited ?
part of the reason may be lack of focused education on climate change, powerful cultural, and perceptual filters that screen out new and challenging information while selectively letting other bits in, peripheral information uptake through the media, and lack of direct immersion in natural environments among people in industrialized countries
What are the  traditional knowledge systems suggests on the the understanding of climate change ?
evidence on traditional knowledge systems suggests that they often complement western scientific knowledge and have been used to substantiate scientific evidence, for example, in the rapidly changing arctic. however, some ways of understanding diverge from scientific evidence and there is much less research on this than on convergent or complementary ways of knowing, and on the consequences of divergent knowledge systems and beliefs
What are the after effect of having limited knowledge on climate change ?
yet, where this lack of knowledge coincides with a climatically exposed livelihood, individuals recognize that the weather or other aspects of nature is changing and that these changes are affecting their lives. what the review of numerous in-depth studies also reveals is an inconclusive relationship between the level of education and the level of understanding of climate change; the relative role of understanding in raising concern and in motivating action
acquiring and employing factually correct knowledge of climate change was defined above as understanding climate change. individuals' understanding of climate change is still limited according to the smallscale studies reviewed here. part of the reason may be lack of focused education on climate change, powerful cultural, and perceptual filters that screen out new and challenging information while selectively letting other bits in, peripheral information uptake through the media, and lack of direct immersion in natural environments among people in industrialized countries. evidence on traditional knowledge systems suggests that they often complement western scientific knowledge and have been used to substantiate scientific evidence, for example, in the rapidly changing arctic. however, some ways of understanding diverge from scientific evidence and there is much less research on this than on convergent or complementary ways of knowing, and on the consequences of divergent knowledge systems and beliefs. in some places knowledge of climate change or the concept it represents is very limited. yet, where this lack of knowledge coincides with a climatically exposed livelihood, individuals recognize that the weather or other aspects of nature is changing and that these changes are affecting their lives. what the review of numerous in-depth studies also reveals is an inconclusive relationship between the level of education and the level of understanding of climate change; the relative role of understanding in raising concern and in motivating action. clearly, individuals enact climaterelevant behavior without or with an incomplete and sometimes misguided understanding of climate change, while others understand the problem full well and do or do not act to reduce their emissions.
What potential do floods have?
floods have the potential to exact a huge impact on the health of human populations. since 1900, for example, flood disasters alone have led to at least 6.8 million reported deaths and 1.3 million reported injuries (see table 3.1 and table 3.2). a further, undocumented global health burden arises annually from floods that are severe in effect but not classified as full-blown 'disasters
What are the published reviews?
o date, there have been few published reviews on the health impacts of floods (western, 1982; seaman, 1984; hajat et al. 2003; malilay, 1997), and these have either focused on particular geographical regions, or not involved a systematic review of the available epidemiological evidence. therefore, in order to understand better the nature of the overall health burden from floods, this chapter surveys the evidence base available on the epidemiology of all floods
Review epidemiological studies?
our review of epidemiological studies concentrates on those health outcomes that we regard as specifically related to flooding and human vulnerability. we do not survey aspects of health that can be categorised as generic to disaster situations, such as the health impacts of population displacement, economic losses and disruption of food supplies. we also recognise that there have been insightful qualitative studies on the health effects of flooding (e.g. see 3.2.8 for a note on research in bangladesh and the uk). however, the focus of this chapter is on epidemiological evidence, and therefore we do not provide a detailed analysis of this qualitative work
floods have the potential to exact a huge impact on the health of human populations. since 1900, for example, flood disasters alone have led to at least 6.8 million reported deaths and 1.3 million reported injuries (see table 3.1 and table 3.2). a further, undocumented global health burden arises annually from floods that are severe in effect but not classified as full-blown 'disasters'. to date, there have been few published reviews on the health impacts of floods (western, 1982; seaman, 1984; hajat et al. 2003; malilay, 1997), and these have either focused on particular geographical regions, or not involved a systematic review of the available epidemiological evidence. therefore, in order to understand better the nature of the overall health burden from floods, this chapter surveys the evidence base available on the epidemiology of all floods. our review of epidemiological studies concentrates on those health outcomes that we regard as specifically related to flooding and human vulnerability. we do not survey aspects of health that can be categorised as generic to disaster situations, such as the health impacts of population displacement, economic losses and disruption of food supplies. we also recognise that there have been insightful qualitative studies on the health effects of flooding (e.g. see 3.2.8 for a note on research in bangladesh and the uk). however, the focus of this chapter is on epidemiological evidence, and therefore we do not provide a detailed analysis of this qualitative work.
What is climate change?
climate change involves, perhaps most seriously, changes in the frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events. there is widespread agreement that global warming is associated with the most severe fl uctuations, particularly in combination with intensi fi ed monsoon circulations. global el nino/southern oscillation (enso) events have directly affected the regional annual precipitation in the yellow river basin and resulted in an approximately 51% decrease in river discharge to the sea (wang et al. 2006). although many other factors are involved, the growing incidence and toll of related natural disasters, such as fl oods and drought, is of particular concern. each of the main features of the himalayan cryosphere carries conditions that can pose threats to society
Explain the large-scale changes in ice and ice melting?
large fl uctuations in the melting of snow and ice can result in excessive or insuf fi cient water supplies: heavy snowfalls can block roads or overload structures. snowfall on steep slopes and associated conditions give rise to avalanches: advancing or retreating glaciers can interfere with communications or cause dangerous impoundments. the action of frost and melting of permafrost pose ecological and technological dangers. the most destructive hazards, and those that can have impacts far beyond their mountain sources, tend to be the direct consequences of changes in the cryosphere. these include ponding of water by or around glaciers and subsequent glacial lake outburst fl oods (glofs), and can involve much more water than the amount generated by climatic events alone (see below). fluctuations in glaciers, especially retreat and thinning, destabilise surrounding slopes and may give rise to catastrophic landslides (ballantyne and benn 1994; dadson and church 2005) which can dam streams, and sometimes lead to outbreak fl oods. excessive melt waters, often in combination with liquid precipitation, may trigger fl ash fl oods or debris fl ows. in the karakoram, there is growing evidence that catastrophic rockslides have a substantial in fl uence on glaciers and may have triggered glacial surges (hewitt 2005
Describe cryogenic processes?
the moraine dams are comparatively weak and can breach suddenly, leading to the sudden discharge of huge volumes of water and debris. the resulting glofs can cause catastrophic fl ooding downstream, with serious damage to life, property, forests, farms, and infrastructure. twentyfi ve glofs have been recorded in the last 70 years in nepal, including fi ve in the sixties and four in the eighties (mool 2001; nea 2004; yamada 1998). mountain ranges in the region have a history of disasters triggered by some or all of the cryogenic processes discussed. the main point is that climate change can alter their frequencies, distribution, mix, and magnitudes - both favourably and adversely. because of limited investigation into these processes and their relationship to climate, our understanding of how climate change will affect them (and in different sub-regions) is also limited. thus, we need to be cautious about making predictions, especially alarmist ones, while emphasising that there is cause for concern
climate change involves, perhaps most seriously, changes in the frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events. there is widespread agreement that global warming is associated with the most severe fl uctuations, particularly in combination with intensi fi ed monsoon circulations. global el nino/southern oscillation (enso) events have directly affected the regional annual precipitation in the yellow river basin and resulted in an approximately 51% decrease in river discharge to the sea (wang et al. 2006). although many other factors are involved, the growing incidence and toll of related natural disasters, such as fl oods and drought, is of particular concern. each of the main features of the himalayan cryosphere carries conditions that can pose threats to society. large fl uctuations in the melting of snow and ice can result in excessive or insuf fi cient water supplies: heavy snowfalls can block roads or overload structures. snowfall on steep slopes and associated conditions give rise to avalanches: advancing or retreating glaciers can interfere with communications or cause dangerous impoundments. the action of frost and melting of permafrost pose ecological and technological dangers. the most destructive hazards, and those that can have impacts far beyond their mountain sources, tend to be the direct consequences of changes in the cryosphere. these include ponding of water by or around glaciers and subsequent glacial lake outburst fl oods (glofs), and can involve much more water than the amount generated by climatic events alone (see below). fluctuations in glaciers, especially retreat and thinning, destabilise surrounding slopes and may give rise to catastrophic landslides (ballantyne and benn 1994; dadson and church 2005) which can dam streams, and sometimes lead to outbreak fl oods. excessive melt waters, often in combination with liquid precipitation, may trigger fl ash fl oods or debris fl ows. in the karakoram, there is growing evidence that catastrophic rockslides have a substantial in fl uence on glaciers and may have triggered glacial surges (hewitt 2005). glacial surges are a particular hazard in the karakoram and pamir mountains. severe cold and high winds threaten wildlife, domestic animals, and humans. in the eastern and central himalayas, glacial melt associated with climate change has led to the formation of glacial lakes in open areas behind exposed end moraines, causing great concern. many of these highaltitude lakes are potentially dangerous. the moraine dams are comparatively weak and can breach suddenly, leading to the sudden discharge of huge volumes of water and debris. the resulting glofs can cause catastrophic fl ooding downstream, with serious damage to life, property, forests, farms, and infrastructure. twentyfi ve glofs have been recorded in the last 70 years in nepal, including fi ve in the sixties and four in the eighties (mool 2001; nea 2004; yamada 1998). mountain ranges in the region have a history of disasters triggered by some or all of the cryogenic processes discussed. the main point is that climate change can alter their frequencies, distribution, mix, and magnitudes - both favourably and adversely. because of limited investigation into these processes and their relationship to climate, our understanding of how climate change will affect them (and in different sub-regions) is also limited. thus, we need to be cautious about making predictions, especially alarmist ones, while emphasising that there is cause for concern.
How climatic trends in the Midwest are characterized ?
climatic trends in the midwest are characterized by high variability on time scales of one to several years relative to long-term trends
What makes difficult to detect whether long-term trends in climate are occurring.
for a given year, the seasonal temperature anomaly can vary by 4*c from the long-term mean (figure 1(a)). this high variability often makes it difficult to detect whether long-term trends are occurring
What is the annual average temperatures in most recent four years ?
in the most recent four years, annual average temperatures have all been 1-2*c above 344
climatic trends in the midwest are characterized by high variability on time scales of one to several years relative to long-term trends. it is not uncommon for temperature on a winter's day to vary by as much as 17*c from the long term or century-scale mean, and for a summer's day temperature to vary by 8*c. for a given year, the seasonal temperature anomaly can vary by 4*c from the long-term mean (figure 1(a)). this high variability often makes it difficult to detect whether long-term trends are occurring. however, since the 1970s temperatures have ranged from near average to somewhat above average in comparison to earlier in the 20thcentury, particularly in the winter months where two-thirds of the winters over the last 15 years have been above the long-term average (ncdc 2003; figure 1(a)). in the most recent four years, annual average temperatures have all been 1-2*c above 344 d.j. wuebbles and k. hayhoe
what areas of climate variability and extreme events on biological systems were studied
with regard to crops
what method was used to study climate events on crops
crop development and temperature by photoperiod interactions at the higher end of the temperature scale
what prevalence incidence and severity was used to study plants and animals affected by extreme climate events
of crop and livestock diseases, and on key agricultural pests and weeds
this article is protected by copyright. all rights reserved. first, there are still important knowledge and data gaps in our understanding of the effects of climate variability and extreme events on biological systems. with regard to crops, craufurd and wheeler (2009) identified several areas, including the need for more information on crop development and temperature by photoperiod interactions at the higher end of the temperature scale. there are key knowledge gaps with regard to the ways in which climate variability and extreme events may exacerbate multiple stresses for animals and plants, and how these stresses may interact and combine. there are also important knowledge gaps regarding the impacts of climate variability and extreme events on the prevalence, incidence and severity of crop and livestock diseases, and on key agricultural pests and weeds and how their prevalence may change.
Explain fluctuations in climate?
such natural fluctuations in climate should be expected to occur, and these will augment or reduce the magnitude of climate change due to anthropogenic forcing in many parts of the world
Explain intrinsic climate fluctuations?
such intrinsic climate fluctuations occur not only on interannual-to-decadal timescales but also over periods as long as 50 years
How downscaled information consider as important?
it is worth noting that downscaled information derived statistically or dynamically from global climate model output will add local detail, but remains dependent on the overlying larger-scale field, and cannot mitigate the uncertainty of projected climate trends due to natural climate variability
model projections are inherently uncertain. but the results shown here suggest that often models may disagree because future changes are within the natural variability22. such natural fluctuations in climate should be expected to occur, and these will augment or reduce the magnitude of climate change due to anthropogenic forcing in many parts of the world. such intrinsic climate fluctuations occur not only on interannual-to-decadal timescales but also over periods as long as 50 years. through an examination of a large ensemble of twenty-first century projections produced by the ccsm3 climate model, we have illustrated that even over the next 55 years, natural variability contributes substantial uncertainty to temperature and precipitation trends over north america on local, regional and continental scales, especially in winter at mid and high latitudes. such uncertainty and regional variation in projected climate change is largely a consequence of the chaotic nature of large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns, and as such is unlikely to be reduced as models improve or as greenhouse-gas trajectories become more certain4. perhaps surprisingly, regional averaging does not necessarily reduce uncertainty due to natural variability: the range of temperature change from one ensemble member to another over the next 55 years is larger for the contiguous united states as a whole than for a number of specific locations within the southwestern united states in summer and parts of mexico in both winter and summer. it is worth noting that downscaled information derived statistically or dynamically from global climate model output will add local detail, but remains dependent on the overlying larger-scale field, and cannot mitigate the uncertainty of projected climate trends due to natural climate variability.
What models were used to examine the extent to which institutional climate influence students' persistence behavior?
we used hierarchical generalized linear models (hglm) to examine the extent to which institutional climate (as measured by peer institutional retention climate and faculty perceived climate), net of students' ability, expectations, and family socioeconomic status, influence students' persistence behavior
What was found about institutional retention climate?
we found that institutional retention climate, as defined by a student body's aggregated report of withdrawal intentions, did independently determine whether a student would persist or not
How was institutional retention climate defined?
we found that institutional retention climate, as defined by a student body's aggregated report of withdrawal intentions
using multi-institutional data from the cooperative institutional research program's (cirp) annual survey of entering freshmen, the higher education research institute's (heri) faculty surveys, campus registrars' offices, and ipeds data, we evaluated the extent to which peer institutional retention climates and faculty perceived campus climates influenced individual 6-year retention rates. we used hierarchical generalized linear models (hglm) to examine the extent to which institutional climate (as measured by peer institutional retention climate and faculty perceived climate), net of students' ability, expectations, and family socioeconomic status, influence students' persistence behavior. we found that institutional retention climate, as defined by a student body's aggregated report of withdrawal intentions, did independently determine whether a student would persist or not. while past research has overlooked peer and faculty climates, the results from this work call for the attention of peer institutional retention climates. keywords degree completion  faculty climate  institutional retention  retention  peer climate student retention has attracted steady attention from scholars and practitioners in the higher education community (astin 1964 1993 tinto 1975 1993 bean 1980 cabrera et al. 1993 braxton 2000 ). as such, the literature on college student retention is replete with scholarship advancing our knowledge of what contributes to a student's ability
What caused the evolution of climate change? It led some to propose that climate change should be dealt with on its own
the evolution of climate change as one of a class of global environmental issues has led some to propose that climate change should be addressed on its own without reference to the other dimensions of our climate
Does it make sense to formulate plans to adapt to climate change without addressing current climate risks at the same time?
it makes little sense to formulate plans to adapt to climate change without addressing current climate risks at the same time
In the context of the Convention, what is the opinion of donor countries? Are of the opinion that climate change funds can only finance measures to address climate change
in the convention context donor countries are of the view that climate change funds may only fund measures intended to address climate change
the evolution of climate change as one of a class of global environmental issues has led some to propose that climate change should be addressed on its own without reference to the other dimensions of our climate, including current climate variability and weather extremes. from a development perspective, it makes little sense to formulate plans to adapt to climate change without addressing current climate risks at the same time. moreover, the uncertainties in climate projections are such that the relatively small projects intended to address only climate change does not do justice to the high anticipated climate impacts - despite, or through, all their risks and uncertainties. in the convention context donor countries are of the view that climate change funds may only fund measures intended to address climate change this implies that only adaptation costs to address the incremental costs of climate change would be eligible for financing under the convention. this approach might exclude some of the most efficient and effective adaptation strategies, and make simple "no-regrets" adaptation less attractive. in addition, it could introduce a bias towards structural adaptation measures rather than policy changes and non-structural measures, for which incremental cost calculations would be much more difficult. there is an opportunity for the bank and its clients to encourage the integration of adaptation into development policies by finding means to blend funding sources including for example the use of gef/unfccc adaptation funds as an additional increment on top of world bank loans. in the light of its mission to fight global poverty (regardless of the origin of the challenges it faces), the world bank is in a position to firmly choose a policy-oriented and no-regrets approach to adaptation.
What is the consequence of the presence of ice on the planet ?
ice sheet demise may occur in pulses as additional ice sheets or portions of ice sheets (e.g. west antarctica or the south dome of greenland) become vulnerable. as long as there is ice on the planet, the response time to insolation forcings can be no shorter than the shortest insolation period ca 6 kyr half-width of precession anomalies), even if ice sheets have no inertia (instantaneous response). this analysis of the plio-pleistocene whipsaw has two important implications
What must be the cause of rapid warming at glacial 'terminations' ?
10 ), the cause of rapid warming at glacial 'terminations' must lie in a climate feedback. clearly, the asymmetric feedback is the albedo flip of ice and snow that occurs when they become warm enough to begin melting. the albedo-flip feedback helps explain the rapidity of deglaciations and their early beginnings relative to milankovitch's summer insolation maxima
In which case do these long time-scales provide a false sense of security about sea level ?
sea-level increases figure 2 a associated with insolation anomalies have characteristic response time similar to the time-scale of the forcing (minimum half-width ca 6 kyr). this is consistent with a persistence time of ca 7 kyr found by mudelsee raymo (2005) for ice volume changes reflected in marine oxygen isotope records. if these long time-scales are interpreted as an inherent time-scale for ice sheet disintegration and built into ice sheet models, then they provide a false sense of security about sea level
thus, insolation anomalies drive temperature and sea-level change. terminations occur after a period in which precession maxima miss a beat or two figure 3 ). weak precession maxima permit ice amount to grow especially large and sea level to achieve an extreme minimum. this ice albedo feedback is not a runaway effect. as insolation (or other) forcing increases, the area of ice vulnerable to melting increases. ice sheet demise may occur in pulses as additional ice sheets or portions of ice sheets (e.g. west antarctica or the south dome of greenland) become vulnerable. as long as there is ice on the planet, the response time to insolation forcings can be no shorter than the shortest insolation period ca 6 kyr half-width of precession anomalies), even if ice sheets have no inertia (instantaneous response). this analysis of the plio-pleistocene whipsaw has two important implications. first, the multi-millennial time-scale for ice sheet disintegration probably reflects the forcing time-scale, not an inertial time-scale for ice sheets. second, climate sensitivity that includes the effect of slow feedbacks implies an ominously low level for the amount of human-made ghgs which will constitute 'dangerous' change. c albedo flip: rapid climate change a salient feature of terrestrial climate change is its asymmetry. warmings are rapid, usually followed by slower descent into colder climate. given the symmetry of orbital forcings figures 3 and 10 ), the cause of rapid warming at glacial 'terminations' must lie in a climate feedback. clearly, the asymmetric feedback is the albedo flip of ice and snow that occurs when they become warm enough to begin melting. the albedo-flip feedback helps explain the rapidity of deglaciations and their early beginnings relative to milankovitch's summer insolation maxima. a positive perturbation to insolation is most effective in spring because it lengthens the melt season. once the albedo is flipped to dark, it usually stays dark until the cold season returns. increased absorption of sunlight caused by albedo flip provides the energy for rapid ice melt. when the insolation forcing reverses, ice sheet regrowth can be slower, as it is limited by the rate of snowfall in cold regions. except for snowball earth conditions, albedo flip is not a runaway feedback. however, the magnitude of the potential global climate response increases as ice sheet size increases. thus, as the earth cooled from the pliocene through the pleistocene, the amplitude of global temperature fluctuations increased. sea-level increases figure 2 a associated with insolation anomalies have characteristic response time similar to the time-scale of the forcing (minimum half-width ca 6 kyr). this is consistent with a persistence time of ca 7 kyr found by mudelsee raymo (2005) for ice volume changes reflected in marine oxygen isotope records. if these long time-scales are interpreted as an inherent time-scale for ice sheet disintegration and built into ice sheet models, then they provide a false sense of security about sea level. the unusual stability of the earth's climate during the holocene is probably due to the fact that the earth has been warm enough to keep ice sheets off north america and asia, but not warm enough to cause disintegration of the greenland or antarctic ice sheets.
Hoe may the utility of MarkSim as a downscaling tool be strengthened?
as noted above, the utility of marksim as a downscaling tool could be considerably strengthened by the addition of large numbers of additional calibration stations
What can the addition of large numbers of additional calibration stations lead to?
this might lead to more information being extractable form downscaled gcm data on the nature of the variability of weather that is associated with different climate clusters
What is one of the main obstacles facing assessment studies?
the lack of information on future weather variability associated with future climatologies is likely to remain a stumbling block to impact assessment studies
as noted above, the utility of marksim as a downscaling tool could be considerably strengthened by the addition of large numbers of additional calibration stations. this might lead to more information being extractable form downscaled gcm data on the nature of the variability of weather that is associated with different climate clusters. without this, the lack of information on future weather variability associated with future climatologies is likely to remain a stumbling block to impact assessment studies. in the meantime, it may have to be incorporated on the basis of sensitivity analyses that involve manual changes to the 17 17 parameters in weather generators that control variability. how this can be done in any sensible fashion is not that clear, however.
Is there uncertainty about the future of New Zealand due to climate change?
uncertainties about the future seem to be pre-eminent migration drivers, even more than actual environmental concerns
Give a reason citizens are migrating from New Zealand.
almost all migrants interviewed in new zealand indicated that climate change and rising sea levels had contributed to their decision to migrate
Are there concerns about the future of Tuvalu?
one migrant noted, "when i left, it was clear that it would be getting worse year after year...i return once a year, because i still have family in tuvalu. maybe they'll come as well to new zealand, one day. that depends on how bad it gets. (...) i don't know if tuvalu will disappear or what (sic), but i don't think people have a future in tuvalu, it's going to get worse
uncertainties about the future seem to be pre-eminent migration drivers, even more than actual environmental concerns. almost all migrants interviewed in new zealand indicated that climate change and rising sea levels had contributed to their decision to migrate. all interviewees noted a concern that their country could be inundated permanently. one migrant noted, "when i left, it was clear that it would be getting worse year after year...i return once a year, because i still have family in tuvalu. maybe they'll come as well to new zealand, one day. that depends on how bad it gets. (...) i don't know if tuvalu will disappear or what (sic), but i don't think people have a future in tuvalu, it's going to get worse."102
what contributes to degraded air quality and global warming?
tropospheric ozone and black carbon (bc) contribute to both degraded air quality and global warming
How many measures were identified to to reduce projected global warning?
we identified 14 measures targeting methane and bc emissions that reduce projected global mean warming ~0.5degc by 2050
what is the value of methane emissions reduction?
benefits of methane emissions reductions are valued at $700 to $5000 per metric ton
tropospheric ozone and black carbon (bc) contribute to both degraded air quality and global warming. we considered ~400 emission control measures to reduce these pollutants by using current technology and experience. we identified 14 measures targeting methane and bc emissions that reduce projected global mean warming ~0.5degc by 2050. this strategy avoids 0.7 to 4.7 million annual premature deaths from outdoor air pollution and increases annual crop yields by 30 to 135 million metric tons due to ozone reductions in 2030 and beyond. benefits of methane emissions reductions are valued at $700 to $5000 per metric ton, which is well above typical marginal abatement costs (less than $250). the selected controls target different sources and influence climate on shorter time scales than those of carbon dioxide - reduction measures. implementing both substantially reduces the risks of crossing the 2degc threshold.
What was different between the two years used in this study?
he most distinct difference between these two years is that one year had many fire events and the other few
How did VOD values behave in the year with few fire events(2001)?
n the year with few fire events (2001), vod values apparently increased from may through august with precipitation
What does this case study demonstrate?
this case study demonstrates the severe influence of frequent fire events on the annual peak value and seasonal cycle of vod
we show a case study that compares the vod values in eastern mongolia for two years with similar precipitation patterns (see figure s11). the most distinct difference between these two years is that one year had many fire events and the other few. in the year with few fire events (2001), vod values apparently increased from may through august with precipitation. in the year with repeated fire events (2007), vod values apparently declined from may to june, even though the precipitation is comparable with 2001. the most likely reason for the vod decline is the fire events in june. the vod value in august 2007 went up with reduced fire events and increased precipitation, but its value was only 80% of august 2001. this case study demonstrates the severe influence of frequent fire events on the annual peak value and seasonal cycle of vod.
What level of maturity have the climate models reached?
despite some limitations, climate models have reached a level of maturity that is remarkable. they simulate an ever-increasing range of processes and feedbacks and are tested in a wide range of applications and for different climate states. no credible model has been produced that questions the strong anthropogenic influence on climate in the past and future. i, therefore, argue that the large-scale model projections are very likely robust and accurate within the stated uncertainties
Who evaluated where to allocate resources?
model evaluation and the decision of where to allocate resources is still largely done by expert judgement
What improvements are needed for the climate models?
climate models are not even close to providing all the information (e.g. changes in extreme precipitation on local scales) that would be useful, and clearly need to improve to provide projections that are useful for adaptation
the issues and caveats discussed above should not imply that the current models are 'bad'; rather, they demonstrate that uncertainties are difficult to reduce, and that the definition of model performance is vague. despite some limitations, climate models have reached a level of maturity that is remarkable. they simulate an ever-increasing range of processes and feedbacks and are tested in a wide range of applications and for different climate states. no credible model has been produced that questions the strong anthropogenic influence on climate in the past and future. i, therefore, argue that the large-scale model projections are very likely robust and accurate within the stated uncertainties. consistency across models and from one model generation to the next can help to establish which aspects are credible and where it is too early to interpret the results. recent coordinated experiments and intercomparisons have helped enormously in understanding model differences and quantifying uncertainty. however, model evaluation and the decision of where to allocate resources is still largely done by expert judgement. more formal methods and metrics are needed to quantify progress and uncertainty and to complement expert judgement. climate models are not even close to providing all the information (e.g. changes in extreme precipitation on local scales) that would be useful, and clearly need to improve to provide projections that are useful for adaptation.
How long Typical RCM resolution be increased?
typical rcm resolution over the past years has increased from around 100 km to around 25-50 km
Describe Regional climate modeling ?
regional climate modeling is now starting to explore using higher resolutions of around 10 km and even higher, approaching true local scales. initial results indicate further improvements in the representation of spatial detail and extremes
What is the complications faced?
another complication is the limited spatial availability of suitable observational data on such high resolution. increasing resolution also warrants changes in the representation of the dynamical and physical processes in the models
typical rcm resolution over the past years has increased from around 100 km to around 25-50 km. regional climate modeling is now starting to explore using higher resolutions of around 10 km and even higher, approaching true local scales. initial results indicate further improvements in the representation of spatial detail and extremes.43-46as mentioned, increased resolution carries a penalty in computational cost. another complication is the limited spatial availability of suitable observational data on such high resolution. increasing resolution also warrants changes in the representation of the dynamical and physical processes in the models. nevertheless, the prospects are promising, in terms of both research on local climate processes (and their impact on larger scales) and provision of impact and adaptation applications.
What is the solution that minimizes s2?
the solution that minimizes s2is 2 the smallest 2 min eigenvalue of ztz, and v~ being the corresponding eigenvector (the vector normal to the best-fit m dimensional plane
Do you translate the coefficients of v~ into the scaling factors?
we translate the coefficients of v~ into the scaling factors, i, of eq. (2) by taking the ratios i v~ ]i
the solution that minimizes s2is 2 the smallest 2 min eigenvalue of ztz, and v~ being the corresponding eigenvector (the vector normal to the best-fit m dimensional plane). in a practical implementation, we simply take the singular value decomposition (svd) z  uvt so, after sorting, v~  vm . the m  th element of the solution vector corresponds to the best-fit scaling parameter on the observations, y and since we require a model that reproduces the observations themselves rather than a scaled version thereof, we translate the coefficients of v~ into the scaling factors, i, of eq. (2) by taking the ratios i v~ ]i/
Why cumulative analysis is not used to assess climate changes such as the North Atlantic Oscillation?
because the weather in any one year is independent of what happened in the previous year
people may fail to appreciate that signifi cant climate change has occurred, or be resistant to taking effective counter measures until too late, if their experiences of the past are an inappropriate guide to the future. a quantifi cation of "unexpected" or "unpredictable" change may be usefully gained from measures of cumulative deviation. this measure is developed by determining the long term mean of a time series of data, say for example, annual temperature. for each year the deviation from the long term mean is calculated, then, starting at the oldest data point, year 1 is presented as simply the deviation from the mean, year 2 is defi ned by that year's deviation plus the deviation from year 1, year 3 is defi ned by that year's deviation plus the deviations from both year 1 and year 2, and so on. this is illustrated for different proxy records in figures 5, 6, and 7. cumulative analysis is not used to assess climate changes such as the north atlantic oscillation because the weather in any one year is independent of what happened in the previous year, but when considering people and the environment cumulative measures are most
How does snow react to climate change?
climate change is now unequivocal, particularly in terms of increasing temperature, increasing co2 concentration, widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea level, while the increase in the frequency of drought is very probable but not as certain
Which economic category of farmer is most at risk from climate change?
the climate changes that are occurring at present will have - and are already having - an adverse effect on food production and food quality with the poorest farmers and the poorest countries most at risk
What are some aspects taken under consideration by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change?
the most recent evidence from the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc 2007 indicates that the warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as it is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea level
summary climate change is now unequivocal, particularly in terms of increasing temperature, increasing co2 concentration, widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea level, while the increase in the frequency of drought is very probable but not as certain. however, climate changes are not new and some of them have had dramatic impacts, such as the appearance of leaves about 400 million years ago as a response to a drastic decrease in co2 concentration, the birth of agriculture due to the end of the last ice age about 11000 years ago and the collapse of civilizations due to the late holocene droughts between 5000 and 1000 years ago. the climate changes that are occurring at present will have - and are already having - an adverse effect on food production and food quality with the poorest farmers and the poorest countries most at risk. the adverse effect is a consequence of the expected or probable increased frequency of some abiotic stresses such as heat and drought, and of the increased frequency of biotic stresses (pests and diseases). in addition, climate change is also expected to cause losses of biodiversity, mainly in more marginal environments. plant breeding has addressed both abiotic and biotic stresses. strategies of adaptation to climate changes may include a more accurate matching of phenology to moisture availability using photoperiod-temperature response, increased access to a suite of varieties with different duration to escape or avoid predictable occurrences of stress at critical periods in crop life cycles, improved water use ef fi ciency and a re-emphasis on population breeding in the form of evolutionary participatory plant breeding to provide a buffer against increasing unpredictability. icarda, in collaboration with scientists in iran, algeria, jordan, eritrea and morocco, has recently started evolutionary participatory programmes for barley and durum wheat. these measures will go hand in hand with breeding for resistance to biotic stresses and with an ef fi cient system of variety delivery to farmers. climate changes today today, nobody questions whether climate changes are occurring or not and the discussion has shifted from whether they are happening to what to do about them. the most recent evidence from the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc 2007 indicates that the warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as it is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea level.
Is rice production in Southeast Asia vulnerable to climate change?
rice production in southeast asia is highly vulnerable to climate change
Would you say rice production and its impact on climate change is a big issue or not?
in southeast asia this issue is of particular relevance owing to the importance of rice to the national food security, economy and livelihoods, and also because of the intensity of the impacts of climate change in the region
Is farmer education important in addressing sustainable livelihood?
quality farmer education (such as through ffs) plays an important role in addressing sustainable livelihoods and in meeting the need to provide food for all
rice production in southeast asia is highly vulnerable to climate change. as described in this paper, rice production simultaneously contributes to global climate change and is affected by it. however, there is a wide range of adaptation measures already being applied, and many examples of the potential that rice production has in contributing to the reduction of ghg emissions globally. in southeast asia this issue is of particular relevance owing to the importance of rice to the national food security, economy and livelihoods, and also because of the intensity of the impacts of climate change in the region. adaptation and mitigation in rice production systems both have important roles to play. farmers will need to have access to a genetically diverse range of improved crop varieties that are resilient to climate change and suited to a variety of ecosystem and farming practices. adaptation will allow farmers to cope with climatic events, while mitigation practices will contribute to global reduction of ghg emissions from rice production. planning, policy and farm practices must be based on actual knowledge of systems that are already in place, but with emphasis on new adjustments to make them function with much greater efficiency in the future. improved knowledge and technology concerning efficient use of inputs and research on stress-tolerant species need to be developed to allow farmers to increase the value of both the primary product of their enterprise as well as its by-products. quality farmer education (such as through ffs) plays an important role in addressing sustainable livelihoods and in meeting the need to provide food for all, raising
On what the Weather Generator method relies?
the weather generator method relies on learning the detailed behaviour of weather from observed weather data and using it in statistical relationships (the ivrs described in chapter 1
Why care must be taken?
this is likely to be the case for some weather extremes (e.g. hot dry spells), particularly when future climates produce conditions outside of the range of those previously observed, and care must be taken to (a) compare the future wg series in a relative sense with wg baseline series (based on the period 1961-1990) and (b) check how well the wg performs for the baseline period of observational data
What is the observation as well as assumption in all statistically-based downscaling techniques?
the use of the observationallybased ivrs for future time periods may appear a significant limitation, but it is the same assumption as made in all statistically-based downscaling techniques
the weather generator method relies on learning the detailed behaviour of weather from observed weather data and using it in statistical relationships (the ivrs described in chapter 1). although these ivrs can be interpreted with some physical sense (e.g. dry days in summer will on average be warmer than wet days), there is no explicit basis in physics or meteorology within the wg, and therefore no guarantee that the generated series, particularly under a changed climate, will always reproduce the correct weather behaviour. this is likely to be the case for some weather extremes (e.g. hot dry spells), particularly when future climates produce conditions outside of the range of those previously observed, and care must be taken to (a) compare the future wg series in a relative sense with wg baseline series (based on the period 1961-1990) and (b) check how well the wg performs for the baseline period of observational data. however, the wg is heavily constrained not just by the ivrs related to baseline observed climate, but also by the use of change factors derived from the probabilistic projections applied to the wg. this ensures that the overall statistics (e.g. averages and standard deviation of the variables' distributions) are the same as those estimated by the ukcp09 methodology. the use of the observationallybased ivrs for future time periods may appear a significant limitation, but it is the same assumption as made in all statistically-based downscaling techniques. there is also an overall hierarchy in the way that the wg variables are generated, so that the rainfall and temperature variables are generated first, and are therefore subject to less error than subsequent variables such as vapour pressure and sunshine hours.
What does fire historians tend to overemphasize?
in general, it is our view that fire historians have tended to overemphasize fire frequency analyses (i.e., description and testing of different fire interval distributions) as the primary goal of fire history research
What is one reason why ttatistical descriptions and tests of fire interval distributions are inherently limited in objectivity, resolution, and reliability?
one reason for this is that selection of an appropriate study area extent or time period to analyze, which very importantly affect interval distributions, will always be subjective or arbitrary at some level
What is an alternative to focusing so exclusively on statistical analysis of fire interval distributions and why?
rather than focusing so exclusively on statistical analysis of fire interval distributions, we think that historical approaches are likely to be equally or more reliable and informative about the drivers of past fire patterns and processes, such as humans and climatic variations. powerful explanations and understanding can be derived from the discovery of specific historical events, trends, contingencies, and patterns
e1 the more restrictive filters (e.g., 10% or 25%), and thereby inferring that these were intervals between relatively widespread fires, this does not imply that no areas were unburned within the sampled areas during those fire events. in general, it is our view that fire historians have tended to overemphasize fire frequency analyses (i.e., description and testing of different fire interval distributions) as the primary goal of fire history research. statistical descriptions and tests of fire interval distributions are inherently limited in objectivity, resolution, and reliability. one reason for this is that selection of an appropriate study area extent or time period to analyze, which very importantly affect interval distributions, will always be subjective or arbitrary at some level (millar and woolfenden 1999). improved sampling methods can only go so far in estimating or correcting for biases and peculiarities in the paleorecord, which by its nature is fragmentary and preserved by only partially understood biological and physical processes (swetnam, allen, and betancourt 1999). rather than focusing so exclusively on statistical analysis of fire interval distributions, we think that historical approaches are likely to be equally or more reliable and informative about the drivers of past fire patterns and processes, such as humans and climatic variations. powerful explanations and understanding can be derived from the discovery of specific historical events, trends, contingencies, and patterns. these historical processes are often obscured in time-averaged summaries, statistically fitted models, and estimates of central tendency. reasonable and convincing explanations often derive from relatively straightforward graphical assessments of the temporal-spatial patterns of event synchrony. such patterns are often evident in fire-scar chronology composites, especially when compared with independent historical records of climate and land-use history. statistical detection and testing of visually evident historical changes and linkages are also possible using methods such as contingency, correlation, and superposed epoch analyses. these kinds of graphical and statistical analyses emphasize the unique, historical nature of fire regimes, rather than just the time and space averaged view emphasized in fire frequency (fire interval) analyses.
What are the wicked nature of problems facing coastal areas?
that they are virtually impossible to solve once and for all owing to incomplete, sometimes contradictory, and changing conditions, and--given the wide range of affected stakeholders involved--the always contested understanding of causes and preferences for solutions
Why is coastal management under climate change bound to become even more formidable in the future?
more people flock to the coast, climate change makes coastal habitation more dangerous, and climatic and nonclimatic changes further undermine the health of coastal waters and ecosystems
What steps are necessary to improve coastal management?
this requires both changes in science (e.g., more truly transdisciplinary science) and in practice (e.g., effective cross-scale and cross-sector integration, meaningful stakeholder education and engagement, longer decision-making horizons, stronger legal and institutional arrangements to manage coasts sustainably, better sciencepractice interactions, and sustained political will
coastal management in many countries has been successful in ameliorating or adapting to stresses, even multiple stresses. eutrophication has been reduced and significant ecosystem recovery has been achieved in some places, e.g., boston harbor, massachusetts (171), and tampa bay, florida (172). depleted fish stocks are being managed for recovery (173). coastal hazards, such as slr, storms and tidal flooding, are increasingly recognized as significant risks, and in north america, europe, asia, and in many other regions, planning is underway to assess vulnerability and develop adaptation plans. effective hazard mitigation is well understood in principle (174), and best-practice examples for improving community resilience to coastal hazards are being implemented selectively (175). however, this review of environmental changes already underway and further expected as a result of anthropogenic climate change interacting with local stresses clearly illustrates the enormous challenges ahead. the wicked nature of problems facing coastal areas lies in the fact that they are virtually impossible to solve once and for all owing to incomplete, sometimes contradictory, and changing conditions, and--given the wide range of affected stakeholders involved--the always contested understanding of causes and preferences for solutions (24, 176). coastal management under climate change is bound to become even more formidable in the future: more people flock to the coast, climate change makes coastal habitation more dangerous, and climatic and nonclimatic changes further undermine the health of coastal waters and ecosystems. a variety of overlapping coastal management approaches have been offered and tried over the past several decades to meet these growing challenges, including integrated coastal zone management, ecosystem-based management, adaptive management, disaster risk management, community-based adaptation, and others (146, 177-179). fundamentally, these approaches focus on improvements in various aspects of governance (180-182). the above-cited reviews of these approaches show that a far greater effort has to be made to realize their potential in practice. this requires both changes in science (e.g., more truly transdisciplinary science) and in practice (e.g., effective cross-scale and cross-sector integration, meaningful stakeholder education and engagement, longer decision-making horizons, stronger legal and institutional arrangements to manage coasts sustainably, better sciencepractice interactions, and sustained political will) (183). in short, "tinkering on the margins" is unlikely to be sufficient to meet the challenges of the twenty-first century. instead, truly transformative change is required (184). such transformative change would certainly involve improvements in the scientific basis for decision making but more importantly would require a shift toward actually using science more effectively in the decisionmaking process. moreover, science is only one input into coastal decision making and frequently not the most important one. thus, changes are equally needed in the political and organizational cultures of coastal decision making and in public understanding of the risks unfolding and the response options available and necessary for continued safe and prosperous occupation of coastal areas. as economic, cultural, and population centers in some of the most beautiful and resource-rich environments on earth, coasts will continue to attract people. in those parts of the world where this aggregation along the coastal margins occurs in largely uncontrolled ways, the transformative change involves, at minimum, building governance systems that can direct the flow of people toward less hazardous areas, constructing and maintaining functional infrastructure, and thus better protecting coastal environments and supporting economic activity. in parts of the world where more
Why was a dichotomous variable entered on the first step indicating public school attendance as a contral variable?
the contribution of school district-level characteristics on school climate indicators
Within which demographic was there variance for derogatory use of "gay" and how did they vary?
race/ethnicity: african american/black and asian/pacific islander youth were less likely to hear these types of expressions than white youth
How was Student-to-teacher ratio related to homophobic remarks?
student-to-teacher ratio was a significant predictor: youth in schools with a higher ratio (more students to teachers) were more likely to hear these types of homophobic remarks
results in order to examine how locational, community, and school district variables may relate to indicators of hostile school climate for lgbt youth, we conducted a series of hierarchical ordinary least squares regressions. personal demographic characteristics of the participants were entered in the first step as our previous research found differences by gender and race/ethnicity with regard to the dependent variables (kosciw et al. 2008 ), and as we were interested in the contribution of the more distal variables once these proximal ones were controlled for. in addition, we entered a dichotomous variable on the first step indicating public school (versus private school) attendance as a control variable given that we examined the contribution of school district-level characteristics on school climate indicators. in the remaining steps, the sets of independent variables were introduced in order of what we determined to be most-to-least distant from the individual: region, then locale, followed by community-level characteristics (community-level poverty and college attainment rate) and finally by school district-level variables (district size, student-to-teacher ratio, and student-to-student support personnel ratio). homophobic remarks results of the regressions for the two homophobic remarks variables are shown in table 3 the column label ''adj. d r2'' represents the increment in explained variance adjusted for degrees of freedom at each step upon entry of the set. the standardized regression coefficients b and their standard error (seb) are from the final equation with all variables entered. thus, they represent the unique contributions of each variable to the model with other variables held constant. with regard to remarks using ''gay'' in a derogatory manner, such as ''that's so gay,'' there were significant differences related to race/ethnicity: african american/black and asian/pacific islander youth were less likely to hear these types of expressions than white youth. the two sets of locational variables each accounted for a significant amount of variance in remarks using ''gay'' in a derogatory manner. when we first entered the regional variables into the equation, the dummy variable ''west'' was significantly related to hearing remarks such as ''that's so gay'' b .05, p .01), such that youth in the west were less likely to hear this type of remark in school than those in the northeast. yet, in the final step of the equation, this variable was no longer significant. the set of locale variables accounted for a significant amount of variance in remarks using ''gay'' in a derogatory manner. at this step, the dummy variable ''urban'' was significant, indicating that youth in urban areas reported a lower frequency than youth in rural areas. however, this variable fell out of significance when the community-level ses indicators were introduced. regarding the set of community-level variables, both indicators were significantly related to the frequency of this type of remark, such that youth from communities with a higher percentage of college graduates and with higher poverty levels were less likely to report hearing remarks using ''gay'' in a derogatory manner. above and beyond personal, locational, and community-level variables, the set of school district variables did not account for a significant amount of variance in this type of remark. with regard to other homophobic remarks, such as ''faggot'' or ''dyke,'' the only significant personal characteristic was age, such that older lgbt youth were less likely to hear these remarks than younger youth. the set of regional variables accounted for a significant amount of variance in homophobic remarks. the dummy variable ''west'' was significant and ''midwest'' was marginally significant in the final equation--youth in these regions were less likely to report homophobic remarks than youth in the northeast. locale also accounted for a significant amount of variance in remarks--youth in urban areas were significantly less likely to report hearing homophobic remarks such as ''fag'' or ''dyke'' than youth in rural areas. the set of community-variables also accounted for a significant amount of variance in other homophobic remarks. among them, youth in communities with more college-educated adults and youth in higher poverty communities were less likely to hear these types of homophobic remarks. in contrast to hearing remarks using ''gay'' in a derogatory manner, the set of school district characteristics accounted for a small but significant amount of variance in other homophobic remarks. student-to-teacher ratio was a significant predictor: youth in schools with a higher ratio (more students to teachers) were more likely to hear these types of homophobic remarks. experiences of victimization in school results of the regressions for the two victimization variables are shown in table 4 with regard to victimization based on sexual orientation, gender was a significant predictor--female youth were less likely and transgender youth were more likely to report such victimization than male youth. race/ethnicity was also a significant predictor, with african american/black youth being less likely to experience victimization based on sexual orientation than white youth. age was the strongest predictor among the personal characteristics, with older youth being less likely to experience victimization.
What is an negative effect from increasing supply of organic matter?
these include decreased water clarity often resulting in the loss of bottom vegetation; alteration of food chains supporting desired species
What impact did human activities have?
greatly increased the availability of plant nutrients, particularly forms of nitrogen and phosphorus, in coastal ecosystems
How is primary production affected?
although increasing nutrient loads enhance primary production
human activities have also greatly increased the availability of plant nutrients, particularly forms of nitrogen and phosphorus, in coastal ecosystems. this is not only the result of direct disposal of wastes into coastal waters, but also because of diffuse source runoff from agricultural and urban systems and, in the case of nitrogen, atmospheric deposition of fossil-fuel combustion by-products. although increasing nutrient loads enhance primary production, there are often deleterious consequences that result from increasing the supply of organic matter (eutrophication) of coastal ecosystems. these include decreased water clarity often resulting in the loss of bottom vegetation; alteration of food chains supporting desired species and
What was quantified first?
first, we quantified the overall relationship between beta diversity measures bsor-a, bsim-a, bnes-a) and each of the variables related to contemporary environmental conditions, geographical isolation, quaternary climate stability and quaternary glacial history
What method was used to test significance?
we therefore tested for significance using a method proposed by clifford et al. (1989), which corrects the sample size of two variables based on the level of the spatial dependency in and between them (lennon et al. 2001; mcknight et al. 2007
first, we quantified the overall relationship between beta diversity measures bsor-a, bsim-a, bnes-a) and each of the variables related to contemporary environmental conditions, geographical isolation, quaternary climate stability and quaternary glacial history. to do so, we used the spearman rank correlation coefficient q to accommodate the non-normal distributions of bsim-a. standard significance tests are not appropriate for spatially autocorrelated data because the assumption of independence is violated, which can greatly inflate type-i statistical error rates (legendre 1993). we therefore tested for significance using a method proposed by clifford et al. (1989), which corrects the sample size of two variables based on the level of the spatial dependency in and between them (lennon et al. 2001; mcknight et al. 2007). this method uses the concept of  effective sample size', which is the equivalent sample size for the two patterns when the redundancy produced by spatial autocorrelation is removed
What did Acocks (1953) suggest?
acocks (1953) suggested that frost was a major factor excluding trees in highveld grasslands
What did correlative models designed to predict vegetation change in response to global warming predict?
correlative models, designed to predict vegetation change in response to global warming, have also predicted invasion of trees into these grasslands in response to warmer temperatures (e.g. ellery et al. 1991
What is needed to determine wich elements of our flora are frost limited?
experimental studies are needed to determine which elements of our flora, if any, are frost limited
what limits trees in grassy vegetation? alternative hypotheses though vegetation predicted by the sdgvm 'plus fire' simulation is largely consistent with what we observe, is fire really the culprit? several alternative hypotheses, of which fire is but one, have been suggested for the scarcity of trees in the grassland regions of south africa (for an excellent review see o'connor and bredenkamp 1997). acocks (1953) suggested that frost was a major factor excluding trees in highveld grasslands. correlative models, designed to predict vegetation change in response to global warming, have also predicted invasion of trees into these grasslands in response to warmer temperatures (e.g. ellery et al. 1991). however much of the tree-less grassland to the east of the drakensberg is frost-free casting doubt on the importance of frost (o'connor and bredenkamp 1997). it is also noteworthy that rhus spp. and acacia karroo both occur in frostprone areas near bloemfontein in the free state. non-native species of acacia and eucalyptus from australia have invaded highveld areas near gauteng also suggesting that frost is not the factor limiting trees in the highveld. unfortunately there is a remarkable dearth of experimental work on frost sensitivity of south african tree species, despite its supposed ecological importance. experimental studies are needed to determine which elements of our flora, if any, are frost limited. perhaps slower growth of saplings under cooler conditions is enough, for savanna trees of sub-tropical origin, to prevent their emergence from frequently burnt grassland. a second hypothesis for the tree-less nature of many of our grasslands is that many soils are seasonally waterlogged (tinley 1982), or have a duplex nature which inhibits tree growth (feely 1987). seasonally waterlogged sites are common features of soil catenas in much of africa, including the miombo woodlands of south-central africa. however only the lower slopes and bottomlands within a landscape are tree-less in these mesic savannas and freely drained upland soils bear tall woodlands. many landscapes in the grasslands east of the drakensberg have duplex soils with the potential for seasonal water logging but at least some of these soils are dry enough for long enough for trees to invade. titshall et al. (2000) reported that fire exclusion experiments in grasslands on plinthite (seasonally waterlogged soils) were invaded by trees. as is the case for frost, there are no experimental studies on the importance of seasonal water logging or the presence of hard pans in limiting trees in grasslands. one possibility may be to use explosives to alter soil properties. san jose and farinas (1983) experimentally demonstrated an increase in south american savanna tree densities when an indurated iron pan was cracked using dynamite. fire our sdgvm simulations incorporate modules that determine growth, and functional type, responses to low temperatures, snow and frost. the results of the no-fire simulations (figures 1 and 4) support acocks' concept of 'true' grasslands for arid areas but not for mesic but cold areas. these areas are not cold enough, on a global scale, to exclude trees. the sdgvm assumes freely drained soils and cannot address the impeded drainage hypothesis for the absence of trees in grasslands. however the model clearly supports the hypothesis that fire is a major factor limiting woody plant cover in cool, mesic areas of south africa. methods it is possible to test these simulations, at least qualitatively, because of the many long term fire exclusion experiments and observations that have been conducted in south africa. we have summarised the results of fire exclusion experiments known to us in table 1 and figure 5. if fire is the main
What does Figure 4.23 presents?
the flowsheet of a wastewater treatment system comprised by a uasb reactor
What is the post-treatment process?
can be any of the secondary processes (aerobic or anaerobic) covered in this chapter, or a physical-chemical process, such as dissolved air flotation
How do you reach the desired efficiency?
some form of post-treatment must follow the uasb reactors
the plant flowsheet is simplified even more by the fact that, differently from anaerobic filters and other systems, there is no need for primary settling. figure 4.23 presents the flowsheet of a wastewater treatment system comprised by a uasb reactor. the risk of generation or release of malodours can be greatly reduced by a careful design, not only in the kinetics calculations, but mainly in the hydraulic aspects. the complete sealing-off of the reactor, including a submerged exit of the effluent and the reduction of weirs, contributes noticeably to the reduction of these risks. the adequate operation of the reactor also contributes to this. a characteristic aspect of this process is the limitation in the bod removal efficiency, which is around 70% therefore lower than in most of the other systems. this must not be considered a disadvantage in itself, but as a characteristic of the process. to reach the desired efficiency, some form of post-treatment must follow the uasb reactors. the post-treatment process can be any of the secondary processes (aerobic or anaerobic) covered in this chapter, or a physical-chemical process, such as dissolved air flotation. the difference is that the post treatment stage is much more compact, since around 70% of the organic load has been previously removed in the anaerobic stage. besides this, in the case of post-treatment processes that incorporate aeration, the consumption of energy is less, by virtue of the lower influent organic load to the aerated tank. overall sludge production will be also lower. the total size (volume) of all the treatment units in the 202 to wastewater characteristics, treatment and disposal
why do the monsoons arrive during summer?
precipitation in china mostly occurs during the summer monsoon and since the 1970s, the asian monsoon circulation is thought to have weakened (wang 2001 ). this tends to produce heavier precipitation in southern china but less moisture transport to regions further north
Can you explain why China receives only a heavier rainfall from the summer monsoon?
precipitation in china mostly occurs during the summer monsoon and since the 1970s, the asian monsoon circulation is thought to have weakened (wang 2001 ). this tends to produce heavier precipitation in southern china but less moisture transport to regions further north. warmer waters in the western pacific and south china sea tend to enhance the subtropical high that stalls the summer rain belt for long periods over southern china (xu 2006 ). thus the decline of the asian monsoonal circulation strength has contributed to severe rainfall anomalies over recent decades, including floods in southern china, and droughts in the north (ding 2005 gong and wang 2000 xu 2006 
Do monsoons affect China's climate?
ncreasing geopotential height over mongolia and northern china, the south china sea and west pacific regions has also prevented the northward propagation of the vapor flux, increasing summer precipitation in the middle and lower yangtze river basin (wang and zhou 2005 zhang et al. 2008 ). in winter, the southwesterly wind in northern mongolia has strengthened, which in turn weakens the southern extent of the winter monsoon, limiting its southward extension. this would explain why the cold temperature extremes events have greatly decreased in northern china, the reasons for such a decline in monsoon strength are widely debated. they may relate to increased air pollution
this means that precipitation may become more frequent in northern regions, even though it is not becoming heavier. precipitation in china mostly occurs during the summer monsoon and since the 1970s, the asian monsoon circulation is thought to have weakened (wang 2001 ). this tends to produce heavier precipitation in southern china but less moisture transport to regions further north. warmer waters in the western pacific and south china sea tend to enhance the subtropical high that stalls the summer rain belt for long periods over southern china (xu 2006 ). thus the decline of the asian monsoonal circulation strength has contributed to severe rainfall anomalies over recent decades, including floods in southern china, and droughts in the north (ding 2005 gong and wang 2000 xu 2006 ). increasing geopotential height over mongolia and northern china, the south china sea and west pacific regions has also prevented the northward propagation of the vapor flux, increasing summer precipitation in the middle and lower yangtze river basin (wang and zhou 2005 zhang et al. 2008 ). in winter, the southwesterly wind in northern mongolia has strengthened, which in turn weakens the southern extent of the winter monsoon, limiting its southward extension. this would explain why the cold temperature extremes events have greatly decreased in northern china, the reasons for such a decline in monsoon strength are widely debated. they may relate to increased air pollution,
What are the development the poverty?
this may be due to the fact that in these countries the 21 21 improvement of the poverty and education indicators is due to a trickle-down effect of general economic growth which leads to a rapid increase of middle-income strata in the society
Define the characterstics of energy-intensive?
typically, these middle income strata quickly adopt energy-intensive lifestyles. this is documented by the explosive growth in electricity-consuming household appliances and private cars in china and all over south east asia. the same phenomenon is now starting in india, too
this seems to suggest that reaching the mdgs would not necessarily entail high increases in greenhouse gas emissions as the largest gains could be made in countries that are still on the left-hand side of figure 6. however, if one looks at the large countries china and india that have made the most substantial progress towards the mdgs during the last decade, one finds that they have increased their energy consumption considerably, which has in turn led to a rapid increase in greenhouse gas emissions. this may be due to the fact that in these countries the 21 21 improvement of the poverty and education indicators is due to a trickle-down effect of general economic growth which leads to a rapid increase of middle-income strata in the society. typically, these middle income strata quickly adopt energy-intensive lifestyles. this is documented by the explosive growth in electricity-consuming household appliances and private cars in china and all over south east asia. the same phenomenon is now starting in india, too.
What do biofilters do?
biofilters with granular media remove, in the same reactor, soluble organic compounds and suspended solids from the wastewater
What are the two sources of sludge generation?
the two sources of sludge generation are the primary sedimentation tanks and the washing of the biofilter
Explain the  gas phase.
gas phase: formed by artificial aeration and, in a reduced scale, by the gaseous by-products of the biological activity
gas phase: formed by artificial aeration and, in a reduced scale, by the gaseous by-products of the biological activity the airflow in the submerged aerated biofilter is always upflow, while the liquid flow can be upflow or downflow. biofilters with granular media remove, in the same reactor, soluble organic compounds and suspended solids from the wastewater. besides serving as support medium for the microorganisms, the granular material performs as an effective filter. in this type of biofilter, periodic washing is necessary to eliminate the accumulated biomass, reducing the hydraulic head losses through the medium. during washing, the feeding with the wastewater is interrupted, and various sequential hydraulic discharges are made with air and cleaning water (gon,calves, 1996). the flowsheet of a system composed of a submerged aerated filter is presented in figure 4.33. the two sources of sludge generation are the primary sedimentation tanks and the washing of the biofilter. the sludge from the washing is collected in a storage tank and pumped to the primary sedimentation tank for clarification outside peak flow times. therefore, the sludge sent to the sludge treatment stage is a mixed sludge, comprising primary sludge and biological sludge (gon,calves, 1996).submergedaeratedbiofiltersarealsobeingsuccessfullyappliedfortheposttreatment of uasb reactors. the aerobic sludge is returned to the uasb reactor, where it undergoes thickening and digestion, thereby simplifying substantially the overall flowsheet (see figure 4.24) (chernicharo et al, 2001).
What are the above results?
the above results are representative of the structures and evolution obtained using different base points throughout the hemisphere in or near the jets, with most base points showing the wave activity confined to the jet (e.g., left panels of fig. 1
What are the main exceptions?
the main exceptions are the base points near the jet exit region over the north atlantic where some if not most of the energy appears to propagate out of and to the north of the jets (e.g., middle panels of fig. 1
What do results based on a filter that retains 10-30 days (not shown) show?
we note that results based on a filter that retains 10-30 days (not shown) also show clear evidence of rossby waves, although at these time scales the spatial scales are somewhat smaller and there is clear evidence of eastward phase propagation
the above results are representative of the structures and evolution obtained using different base points throughout the hemisphere in or near the jets, with most base points showing the wave activity confined to the jet (e.g., left panels of fig. 1). the main exceptions are the base points near the jet exit region over the north atlantic where some if not most of the energy appears to propagate out of and to the north of the jets (e.g., middle panels of fig. 1). we note that results based on a filter that retains 10-30 days (not shown) also show clear evidence of rossby waves, although at these time scales the spatial scales are somewhat smaller and there is clear evidence of eastward phase propagation. we will discuss further the characteristics of the stationary rossby waves in the next section in the context of a stationary wave model.
What did this review highlight about soil fauna effects on decomposition?
it also highlights that the modulation of soil fauna effects on decomposition by climate and litter quality varies with the biome considered, from climate-driven biomes such as tropical wet forests, deciduous forests and cold or dry, to biomes where climate effects
What was the relative importance for this review?
we advance the first globaland biome-scale synthesis on the relative importance of climate, litter quality and soil fauna for litter decomposition rates, and on how climate and litter quality modulate the effects of soil fauna on such rates
How was litter affected in this review?
our review demonstrates, using a comprehensive gradient of soil faunal communities, climates and litter qualities, that soil fauna consistently promote litter decomposition across and within biomes
here, we advance the first globaland biome-scale synthesis on the relative importance of climate, litter quality and soil fauna for litter decomposition rates, and on how climate and litter quality modulate the effects of soil fauna on such rates. our review demonstrates, using a comprehensive gradient of soil faunal communities, climates and litter qualities, that soil fauna consistently promote litter decomposition across and within biomes. this positive effect was independent from the direct influence of climate and litter quality on decomposition, and had a similar magnitude than the effect of litter quality. it also highlights that the modulation of soil fauna effects on decomposition by climate and litter quality varies with the biome considered, from climate-driven biomes such as tropical wet forests, deciduous forests and cold or dry, to biomes where climate effects
What is important for conservation planning?
for conservation planning and action, it is important to be able to assess how, where and when future threats could affect species persistence
Describe the estimation of this stufy?
our study estimates how many proteaceae in the cfr could be affected (as shown by a change in their red list status) by future threats that are usually not included in current iucn red list assessments
How to evaluate our prediction?
the timeframe of this study allows us to evaluate our predictions in the nearto medium-term. a particular strength of our approach is the integration of both land use and climate change as major drivers of species endangerment and extinction
for conservation planning and action, it is important to be able to assess how, where and when future threats could affect species persistence. assessing this should facilitate the required shift from reactive to proactive conservation approaches. our study estimates how many proteaceae in the cfr could be affected (as shown by a change in their red list status) by future threats that are usually not included in current iucn red list assessments. this was achieved by incorporating environmental conditions predicted by land use and climate change models for 2020 into a red list assessment. the timeframe of this study allows us to evaluate our predictions in the nearto medium-term. a particular strength of our approach is the integration of both land use and climate change as major drivers of species endangerment and extinction. furthermore, we integrated predicted species distributions (i.e. rather hypothetical potential ranges) with actual species distributions to assess future climate change impacts in the real world. despite its limitations, our study serves as a first estimation of the 'shadow extinction risk' from future land use and climate change not evident in current iucn red lists. the expected changes are substantial, affecting up to 29% of the 227 taxa, and they differ in their spatial and causal components. species and regions not considered as threatened if future threats are excluded appear to be severely affected by land use and climate change in the future. our results could be characteristic for many species and regions in and beyond the cfr (burgman, 2002). finally, our approach can in a sense be seen as a test of the value of planned interventions for conservation.
Where global warming will have the most consequences ?
most of africa, southern europe and the middle east, most of the americas, australia, and southeast asia
When will this happen ?
the projections are alarming because a very large population may be severely affected in the coming decades
What will be the main consequences ?
this has the potential to increase flash floods and runoff, and as a result increase soil erosion, diminish soil moisture, and increase the risk of agricultural drought (dai, 2011), as well as increasing the potential for crop losses due to flooding and affecting the dynamics of livestock diseases and their vectors
climate models project increased aridity during the current century over most of africa, southern europe and the middle east, most of the americas, australia, and southeast asia. there is considerable uncertainty in such results, but the projections are alarming because a very large population may be severely affected in the coming decades. at the same time, precipitation may become more intense but less frequent (i.e., longer dry spells). this has the potential to increase flash floods and runoff, and as a result increase soil erosion, diminish soil moisture, and increase the risk of agricultural drought (dai, 2011), as well as increasing the potential for crop losses due to flooding and affecting the dynamics of livestock diseases and their vectors, for example.
What is the most adequate thing to do to keep AMOC in its minimum level?
because the reduction of amoc saturates around 15 m/kyr, the meltwater forcing of 40m/kyr is more than adequate to keep amoc in its minimum level within the range of reasonable nhmw
What should we do if AMOC in CCSM3 has hysteresis?
if the amoc in ccsm3 has hysteresis, the 40m/kyr nhmw discharge should have switched the amoc from the "active" to the "off" mode, and the amoc can maintain its "off" mode as long as the reduction of the nhmw does not pass the threshold
How is NHMW discharging reduce in DGL-16ka-A and DGL-16ka-B?
in dgl-16ka-a and dgl-16ka-b, nhmw discharge reduces from 40 m/kyr to 0 and 10 m/kyr, respectively. in both cases, the reduction of the nhmw results in the immediate rebound
because the reduction of amoc saturates around 15 m/kyr, the meltwater forcing of 40m/kyr is more than adequate to keep amoc in its minimum level within the range of reasonable nhmw. if the amoc in ccsm3 has hysteresis, the 40m/kyr nhmw discharge should have switched the amoc from the "active" to the "off" mode, and the amoc can maintain its "off" mode as long as the reduction of the nhmw does not pass the threshold. two sensitivity experiments (fig. 10 and table 5) were performed to test the hypothesized threshold value. in dgl-16ka-a and dgl-16ka-b, nhmw discharge reduces from 40 m/kyr to 0 and 10 m/kyr, respectively. in both cases, the reduction of the nhmw results in the immediate rebound
Who conducted the survey of the Business?
the survey of the business climate conducted by the statistical institute of catalonia with the chambers of commerce of sabadell and terrassa aims at generating official data on the economic trends in the various districts covered by these chambers, and the catalan district of valles occidental
How long the data can be collected?
the data are collected every six months to perform the assessment of the current economic situation and of future business outlooks and, thus, to evaluate the strength of the economy and the direction of its future change
When did first survey, conducted ?
the first survey, conducted in january 2004, focused on the second half of 2003 and on the forecasts for the first half of 2004
the survey of the business climate conducted by the statistical institute of catalonia with the chambers of commerce of sabadell and terrassa aims at generating official data on the economic trends in the various districts covered by these chambers, and the catalan district of valles occidental. the data are collected every six months to perform the assessment of the current economic situation and of future business outlooks and, thus, to evaluate the strength of the economy and the direction of its future change. the surveys of the economic situation of the valles occidental were initiated in january of 2004, by an agreement about collaboration between the chambers of commerce of sabadell and terrassa and the statistical institute of catalonia. the survey is repeated every six months. the first survey, conducted in january 2004, focused on the second half of 2003 and on the forecasts for the first half of 2004. compared to the final results for the year 2003, the data for the first half of 2004 suggested an economic expansion. during the second half of 2004, however, a certain moderate slow-down of the economy was recorded. there was a recession in various sectors of industry; the indicators showed negative values, with a decline especially noticeable in textile and tailoring industries. the retailing sector as well as the other service sectors exhibited more stable index values. the construction sector also remained unchanged, but during the first half of 2004 it showed a mild upswing. during the first half of 2005, the results of the survey indicated a steady overall during the first half of 2005, the results of the survey indicated a steady overall economic activity with some symptoms of improvement in comparison to the second half of the year 2004. construction continued to play the role of the economic engine, while the textile industry was in recession. retailing, after a relatively dynamic period, also experienced a slowdown. overall, the results for the second half of 2005 confirmed a mild
What is an effective strategy to address climate change?
soil and water conservation strategies, despite their potential effectiveness in addressing some of the challenges of climate change, require much labour and appropriate training of extension workers and farmers
What is the economic standing of farmers most likely to adopt conservation tillage?
it is those farmers who are endowed with more livelihood assets that mainly adopt conservation tillage as compared to those with limited assets
How can the government support water and soil conservation projects?
external support from governmental institutions and development agencies is, therefore, needed to implement most soil and water conservation projects
soil and water conservation strategies, despite their potential effectiveness in addressing some of the challenges of climate change, require much labour and appropriate training of extension workers and farmers. conservation tillage, for instance, is a useful option for improving the storage of rainwater in the soil and can help mitigate agricultural drought. however, it requires adequate draught power, appropriate machines, and good training of farmers to be effective. these conditions rarely exist amongst the majority of smallholder farmers. it is those farmers who are endowed with more livelihood assets that mainly adopt conservation tillage as compared to those with limited assets. external support from governmental institutions and development agencies is, therefore, needed to implement most soil and water conservation projects.
At which level has convergence between the UK's climate change and energy policies largely taken place?
as noted above, convergence between the uk's climate change and energy policies has largely taken place at a discursive level
Which narratives about how best to tackle climate change are the most prominent?
across a range of actors involved in the two policy domains, we can identify a number of distinctive, though to some extent interrelated, narratives about how best to tackle climate change, of which four - 'energy supply', 'energy demand', 'market mechanisms' and 'international solutions' - are the most prominent (see figure one
How have these narratives been identified?
we have identified these narratives through a process of policy literature review and qualitative discourse analysis, concentrating in particular on key government documents in the period from the late 1990s to 2007, such as the 2003 energy white paper and the 2006 energy review (dti, 2003, 2006b
as noted above, convergence between the uk's climate change and energy policies has largely taken place at a discursive level. that is why we turn our attention now to the particular narratives or storylines that have emerged from this convergence. across a range of actors involved in the two policy domains, we can identify a number of distinctive, though to some extent interrelated, narratives about how best to tackle climate change, of which four - 'energy supply', 'energy demand', 'market mechanisms' and 'international solutions' - are the most prominent (see figure one). we have identified these narratives through a process of policy literature review and qualitative discourse analysis, concentrating in particular on key government documents in the period from the late 1990s to 2007, such as the 2003 energy white paper and the 2006 energy review (dti, 2003, 2006b). we used qualitative analysis software (atlas) to code policy documents and other relevant literature from corporations and non-governmental organisations; the four narratives emerged from this coding. we view the narratives as storylines, defined by hajer as "narratives on social reality ... that provide actors with a set of symbolic references that suggest a common understanding" (hajer, 1995: 62). the storyline concept is particularly apt because storylines are seen as a critical way of enabling policy change in situations of policy flux through developing common understanding of new problems and possible solutions (hajer 1995). conceptualising the narratives as storylines is therefore more appropriate than, for example, 16 16 as discursive 'frames' because the idea of a frame has been used primarily to explain situations of policy stability, rather than uncertainty and change (laws and rein, 2003; rein and schon, 1993).
What is the form of the case study Label?
a 'label' in the form of a summary table presenting how the case study fits into the five criteria included in table 4
What should the description of key issues include?
 description of key issues which includes: o case study location (characteristics of geography and population; current and future climate
What should be included in the Analytical section?
 analytical section. o can it have an impact (a discussion of the potential of the initiative to contribute to climate change adaptation goals
each case study follows a consistent format and includes the following elements: * a 'label' in the form of a summary table presenting how the case study fits into the five criteria included in table 4. * summary of the case study. * description of key issues which includes: o case study location (characteristics of geography and population; current and future climate). o development of the initiative (key aims; main themes driving the initiative; details of the initiative). o implementing the initiative (mechanisms of implementation; building the evidence base; monitoring and evaluation). o stakeholder engagement (collaboration with key stakeholders; engaging the public; political buy-in). o sources of funding. * analytical section. o can it have an impact (a discussion of the potential of the initiative to contribute to climate change adaptation goals). o key messages (critical success factors and lessons learnt). * contact information and references.
Through what an improved ''trend'' can be obtained?
it is possible to obtain an improved ''trend'' through the weighted average of partial trends
What is a "breakpoint"?
new climate parameters
What happened after the work of Karl et al. [2000]?
some studies used the years of 1945 and 1975 as turning points of the climate series of the 20th century [e.g., tank et al. 2002], not considering the fact they were obtained for the global surface temperature and have no special meaning for other climate series
although frequently used, the linear trend can be deceptive. it is possible to obtain an improved ''trend'' through the weighted average of partial trends, that better describes the low frequency behavior of the times series. at the same time one gets a set new climate parameters (breakpoints) that can provide a new insight into global and local climate studies. after the work of karl et al. [2000] some studies used the years of 1945 and 1975 as turning points of the climate series of the 20th century [e.g., tank et al. 2002], not considering the fact they were obtained for the global surface temperature and have no special meaning for other climate series. these years may be completely inadequate for many climate time series, namely for precipitation, for the nao index, as shown in this paper, and probably for many other climate time series. we believe that a systematic study of the distribution of climate breakpoints in space and time may provide new insights into the spatial patterns of climate change and its relation with the global circulation. the proposed method allows for an objective and rather simple way of computing those breakpoints from large numbers of climate time series, without important a priori decisions. the algorithm was implemented in a fortran 90 program, using lapack routines for solving overdetermined linear equation systems. the source code can be freely obtained by requesting it by mail to the first author. acknowledgments. this work was possible due to a sabbatical year of the first author from the universidade da beira interior, with the financial support from centro de geofi'sica da universidade de lisboa and from fct, through a grant co-funded by the european union under program feder. the nao data was kindly provided by james hurrell.
How are the growth rates calculated?
the growth rates are calculated from stochastic simulations
Explain how the effect of sea ice variability is examined?
to examine the effect of sea ice variability, we calculate the stochastic population growth rate as a function of the means and variances of annual sica and of seasonal differences in sica
What is done to ensure breeding success?
for breeding success, we add a normally distributed error term with variance given by the residual variation
to examine the effect of sea ice variability, we calculate the stochastic population growth rate as a function of the means and variances of annual sica and of seasonal differences in sica. the growth rates are calculated from stochastic simulations. at each time step t values for annual sica and seasonal differences in sica are drawn from normal distributions with specified means and variances, and are used to parameterize the projection matrix a in eqn (3). we also include stochastic variation, unrelated to sea ice conditions, in breeding success and the probability of return to the colony. for breeding success, we add a normally distributed error term with variance given by the residual variation
What are some issues with current studies in the literature?
 lack of pre-flood data (many collect pre-flood health data retrospectively) * recall bias (that is, flooded subjects more likely to report symptoms). * lack of control groups/individuals (that is, a non-flooded group with which to compare). * lack of clinical diagnosis of health outcomes (that is, objective measures of health outcome
What population do flash-flood deaths tend to affect most?
from the few epidemiological studies that exist, it is evident that the majority of flash-flood-related deaths are from drowning, and these tend to arise among males who drive motor vehicles through rising floodwaters
Where are flood-related diseases likely to occur?
such outbreaks are more likely to occur in developing countries where infectious disease transmission is an existing public health problem, and in many of these countries the public health infrastructure is less well-established, and there are many more vulnerable individuals
flash floods are particularly hazardous, as by their very nature they provide little warning. from the few epidemiological studies that exist, it is evident that the majority of flash-flood-related deaths are from drowning, and these tend to arise among males who drive motor vehicles through rising floodwaters. it is unclear why there have been so few epidemiological studies of this type of flood (those that exist have focused on industrialised countries), and it is even less clear why there are no epidemiological studies of flash floods in developing countries. there are many methodological challenges in studying the health impacts of floods (which probably increase in the case of flash floods), and these difficulties may be one reason for the dearth of studies. nevertheless, it is likely that many communities (especially in developing countries) are particularly vulnerable to this type of flood, and there is a need to gain a better understanding of how flash floods affect health. increased understanding can enable the development of programmes to prevent unnecessary loss of life and injury. the majority of the flood events covered in this chapter are of the slow-onset type, and these are less likely to result in deaths and injuries, at least in the onset phase. the range of health outcomes described in this chapter are likely to arise in the context of a flood of this type, albeit that certain outcomes are more likely to arise in one setting compared with another. for example, the evidence cited here would suggest that floodrelated outbreaks of infectious disease are less likely to occur in industrialised regions such as europe and the usa. such outbreaks are more likely to occur in developing countries where infectious disease transmission is an existing public health problem, and in many of these countries the public health infrastructure is less well-established, and there are many more vulnerable individuals. there is a general paucity of epidemiological studies in both north and south, and we suggest that studies need to be funded. due to the difficulties in obtaining relevant information on flood events (including flood surveys and reports), we also recommend that an information system be created to improve access to this literature. there is a need to improve monitoring and surveillance (see 4.2.4). on the one hand this includes maintaining and strengthening surveillance systems for infectious diseases in general. for example, leptospirosis is difficult to diagnose, and is often mis-diagnosed as dengue. there are few specialist laboratories which can make the diagnosis. on the other hand, there is a need to develop and enhance surveillance following flood events. surveys and research should be conducted following flood events in order to determine mortality, morbidity and the associated risk factors (age, sex, housing types, socioeconomic status, access to warning information, etc). where possible, morbidity due to infectious diseases should have the infectious agent confirmed by laboratory test. more and improved epidemiological research needs to be undertaken on the health impacts of disasters. many studies in the review had the following methodological problems: * lack of pre-flood data (many collect pre-flood health data retrospectively) * recall bias (that is, flooded subjects more likely to report symptoms). * lack of control groups/individuals (that is, a non-flooded group with which to compare). * lack of clinical diagnosis of health outcomes (that is, objective measures of health outcome)
What limitations do the current climate models have?
beyond climate. today's climate models still have limited representations of the biogeochemical cycles (notably carbon). decades from now, global models of the earth system will likely simulate agricultural and industrial production, transport, consumption, economic flows, and demography. socioeconomic variables such as gross domestic product, rate of mortality, disease incidence, and transport routes would be considered to be as essential as the current set of physical, chemical, and biological variables
What is needed to model pollutant emissions?
data on some of these socioeconomic variables are already needed to model anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and other pollutants, to monitor and control other environmental risks, and to provide climate services. much more will be needed as modeling capabilities expand. progress in data assimilation and observation technology is expected to go hand in hand with this development
What is the importance of climate and environmental information?
climate and environment information will become increasingly important for understanding and predicting the evolution of markets and influence financial strategies. these communities may evolve from mere customers of information to also directly supporting the generation, archiving and distribution of basic data
beyond climate. today's climate models still have limited representations of the biogeochemical cycles (notably carbon). decades from now, global models of the earth system will likely simulate agricultural and industrial production, transport, consumption, economic flows, and demography. socioeconomic variables such as gross domestic product, rate of mortality, disease incidence, and transport routes would be considered to be as essential as the current set of physical, chemical, and biological variables. data on some of these socioeconomic variables are already needed to model anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and other pollutants, to monitor and control other environmental risks, and to provide climate services. much more will be needed as modeling capabilities expand. progress in data assimilation and observation technology is expected to go hand in hand with this development. climate and environment information will become increasingly important for understanding and predicting the evolution of markets and influence financial strategies. these communities may evolve from mere customers of information to also directly supporting the generation, archiving and distribution of basic data.
What are things mapped in this model?
for each model, we mapped the precipitation, sea level pressure (slp), and temperature over roughly the domain for which we ran the mesoscale model (results of which will be reported elsewhere
Why this model be choosen?
s. this model was chosen for display because it scores the best in comparisons with the reanalysis (figure 6
Explain the precipitation level in this model?
 in both instances we show the annual mean for 195099. all models reproduce the basic features of each field: the heavy precipitation over the coastal mountains of british columbia, the swath of high precipitation in the lower left corner, the aleutian low and pacific high pressure features in the top panel, and the low temperatures over the mountainous west and the strong gradient of sea surface temperature over the eastern pacific
for each model, we mapped the precipitation, sea level pressure (slp), and temperature over roughly the domain for which we ran the mesoscale model (results of which will be reported elsewhere). figure 5 shows the maps for one of these models, the cgcm_t47, compared with the ncep/ncar reanalysis. this model was chosen for display because it scores the best in comparisons with the reanalysis (figure 6). in both instances we show the annual mean for 195099. all models reproduce the basic features of each field: the heavy precipitation over the coastal mountains of british columbia, the swath of high precipitation in the lower left corner, the aleutian low and pacific high pressure features in the top panel, and the low temperatures over the mountainous west and the strong gradient of sea surface temperature over the eastern pacific.
What kind of response is required?
an integrated and holistic political response is vital for good social, economic, and ethical reasons
Is anthropogenic climate change still questionable?
anthropogenic climate change is now incontrovertible. the amount of change and its intensity, along with the willingness and capacity to mitigate it, are subject to considerable debate and controversy
the potential health eff ects of climate change are immense. management of those health issues is an enormous challenge not only for health professionals but also for climate change policy makers. an integrated and holistic political response is vital for good social, economic, and ethical reasons. consistent with this ambition, we have brought together a multidisciplinary group to explore this urgent issue. anthropogenic climate change is now incontrovertible. the amount of change and its intensity, along with the willingness and capacity to mitigate it, are subject to considerable debate and controversy. this report deliberately supports a conservative approach to the agreed facts for two reasons. first, even the most conservative estimates are profoundly disturbing and demand action. second, less conservative climate change scenarios are so catastrophic that adaptation might be unachievable. however, although conservative on the estimates and cognisant of the possibility of pessimistic outcomes, we are optimistic on what can be achieved by a collaborative eff ort between governmental and non-governmental entities at all levels, and concerned citizens at the community level. the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) reported that societies can respond to climate change by adapting to its eff ects and by reducing greenhouse gas emissions (mitigation), thereby decreasing the rate and magnitude of change.1 the capacity to adapt and mitigate depends on socioeconomic and environmental circumstances, and the availability of information and technology. less information is available about the costs and eff ectiveness of adaptation measures than about mitigation measures. climate change is not just an environmental issue but also a health issue. the ability to adapt to the health eff ects of climate change depends on measures that reduce its severity--ie, mitigation measures that will drastically reduce carbon emissions in the short term, but also increasing the planet's capacity to absorb carbon. this is a crucial issue that must be acted upon urgently. however, we only focus on how we might adapt to and avoid the negative health eff ects of climate change that, because it can take 20-30 years for carbon emissions to have a full eff ect, and for deforestation and ecosystem damage to become apparent, will occur even with the best possible mitigation action. in this report, we review the consensus science on climate change and then briefl y explore its health implications. we address six ways in which climate change can aff ect health: changing patterns of disease and morbidity, food, water and sanitation, shelter and human settlements, extreme events, and population and migration. we then present a policy framework to address the major obstacles to responses to the health eff ects of climate change, and how policy responses might address these issues.
What should happen if there is Increasing precipitation?
increasing precipitation increases both evapotranspiration (figure 12) and runoff (figure 13
What are the Relative changes?
relative changes in runoff are generally larger than relative changes in evapotranspiration. to some extent, this can be explained because runoff forms a smaller component of the water balance than evapotranspiration, and an increase in both of 10 mm will result in a greater relative change in runoff
Explain evapotranspiration in basins ?
the evapotranspiration in those basins responds much more strongly in summer, when sufficient energy is available to evaporate much of the extra precipitation. in the coldest basins the runoff change resulting from a winter increase in precipitation is largest in spring and summer, because most of the winter precipitation is stored as snow
increasing precipitation increases both evapotranspiration (figure 12) and runoff (figure 13). relative changes in runoff are generally larger than relative changes in evapotranspiration. to some extent, this can be explained because runoff forms a smaller component of the water balance than evapotranspiration, and an increase in both of 10 mm will result in a greater relative change in runoff. however, because the relative changes are different, the relative importance of runoff in the water balance increases. because evapotranspiration is energy-limited during the winter months in the snow dominated basins, evapotranspiration in the winter increases only slightly in response to increases in precipitation during that period. the evapotranspiration in those basins responds much more strongly in summer, when sufficient energy is available to evaporate much of the extra precipitation. in the coldest basins the runoff change resulting from a winter increase in precipitation is largest in spring and summer, because most of the winter precipitation is stored as snow. in the severnaya dvina river basin evapotranspiration decreases in the season after increasing the precipitation. in particular, evapotranspiration during the spring decreases, following an increase in precipitation during the fall and winter. the mechanism is the same as described in the previous section. increased precipitation during the fall or winter leads to a thicker snow pack and reduces the number of snow free days during the spring, resulting in a small reduction of total evaporation during these three months. 4.3. observed trends in streamflow
Where are the main characteristics, advantages and disadvantages of the various dewatering methods listed?
the main characteristics, advantages and disadvantages of the various dewatering methods are listed in table 5.9
To what can the sludge be submitted to increase the dewatering capability and the solids capture?
to increase the dewatering capability and the solids capture (solids incorporated in the sludge), the sludge can be submitted to a conditioning stage before the dewatering stage itself
How can the conditioning be accomplished?
the conditioning can be accomplished using chemical products or physical processes; the most common of the latter is the heating of the sludge
the main characteristics, advantages and disadvantages of the various dewatering methods are listed in table 5.9. to increase the dewatering capability and the solids capture (solids incorporated in the sludge), the sludge can be submitted to a conditioning stage before the dewatering stage itself. the conditioning can be accomplished using chemical products or physical processes; the most common of the latter is the heating of the sludge. the chemical products are applied to the sludge upstream of the dewatering unit, favouring the aggregation of the solids particles and the formation of flocs. the conditioning can be also employed upstream of the mechanised thickening units. the main coagulants used are metallic salts and polyelectrolytes (polymers). the most common metallic coagulants are:
was smaller?
this was smaller than the average areas of our narrowest biome definitions in the same region
Are  important additional limitations of the analysis?
finally, important additional limitations of the analysis here include failures to consider the full spectrum of possible co2 fertilization effects (bazzaz et al., 1996) and possible effects of population density on migration
This is important?
this is an important concern for many plant species
b47 was 0.11 million km 2 (hughes et al., 1996). this was smaller than the average areas of our narrowest biome definitions in the same region [0.85 million km z for biome3 (eighteen biome types) and 0.45 million km z for mapss (forty-five biome types)]. finally, important additional limitations of the analysis here include failures to consider the full spectrum of possible co2 fertilization effects (bazzaz et al., 1996) and possible effects of population density on migration. concerning the latter, schwartz's {1992) simulations showed that rare species never attained their highest migration rates even when suitable habitat was abundant. this is an important concern for many plant species; for example, the nature conservancy estimates that one-half of endangered plant taxa in the us are restricted to five or fewer populations (from pitelka et al., 1997).
What is the continuing claim from policy analysts and commentators?
the continuing claim from policy analysts and commentators (for example gardner and stern, 1996; kempton, 1997, p. 20) is that much of what is taken as societal assessments of possible behavioural response to climate change mitigation measures is based on plausible, but untested, and often misleading or mistaken, presumptions
What remains an under-explored element of climate change research?
the lack of e ective citizen appraisal of their possible role in determining the actual nature of climate futures remains an under-explored element of climate change research
Who show how policy makers and business managers are ill-prepared to commit to a particular strategy and to specific investment for possible climate outcomes?
lorenzoni and her colleagues (2000a; 2000b) show how policy makers and business managers are ill-prepared to commit to a particular strategy and to speci c investment for possible climate outcomes
the continuing claim from policy analysts and commentators (for example gardner and stern, 1996; kempton, 1997, p. 20) is that much of what is taken as societal assessments of possible behavioural response to climate change mitigation measures is based on plausible, but untested, and often misleading or mistaken, presumptions. furthermore, the lack of e ective citizen appraisal of their possible role in determining the actual nature of climate futures remains an under-explored element of climate change research. lorenzoni and her colleagues (2000a; 2000b) show how policy makers and business managers are ill-prepared to commit to a particular strategy and to speci c investment for possible climate outcomes, largely because they do not relate their prognoses for periods to over 5 years. furthermore, managers do not always fully appreciate just how in uential
How can climate sensitivities be definied by ?
defined by coupling the atmospheric component of the coupled models to a slab ocean, and calculating the equilibrium response of global-mean surface air temperature to a doubling of atmospheric co2
How much did it costs to output results from a suite of simulations ?
output from a suite of simulations using these models is freely available on the internet
Which values represent the output from the measurement of CM2.0 and CM2.1, respectively ?
of cm2.0 and cm2.1 are 2.9 and 3.4 k
iv) the climate sensitivities (defined by coupling the atmospheric component of the coupled models to a slab ocean, and calculating the equilibrium response of global-mean surface air temperature to a doubling of atmospheric co2) of cm2.0 and cm2.1 are 2.9 and 3.4 k, respectively. output from a suite of simulations using these models is freely available on the internet (see http://nomads.gfdl.noaa.gov/). the models described here are the result of a substantial, multiyear effort at gfdl to develop a new generation of modeling tools. this effort tried to foster a unified approach to model development, in which the development of various component models occurred in close coordination. the strong interactions and feedbacks between model components within the coupled climate system suggest that such a holistic approach to
Where are the dead buildings typically seen?
as you pass by the railway stations of cities around the world you will see from the carriage windows the growing numbers of dead buildings. you see them typically around the railway stations that were the hub of commercial life in towns and cities when rebuilding occurred after the second world war, in the 1950s to 1970s
According to the author, what makes owners pay the same tax whether a site is occupied or empty and what will that cause?
that is until the new site tax was brought in by the uk government, which makes owners pay the same tax whether a site is occupied or empty. this will cause tremendous hardship for many building owners and investors
How are many cities today building and why does the author believe developers are doing it that way?
many cities today are building towers without a clear economic function. in leeds, manchester and liverpool many of the recently built towers are partially or completely empty as the creditstarved buy-to-let markets evaporated, leaving many young and old people in chronic debt. this is happening everywhere developer greed knew no bounds when credit was cheap
as you pass by the railway stations of cities around the world you will see from the carriage windows the growing numbers of dead buildings. you see them typically around the railway stations that were the hub of commercial life in towns and cities when rebuilding occurred after the second world war, in the 1950s to 1970s. they are, as gensler put it, ' faulty towers ' they perform very badly, they are often sick with their filthy inaccessible air-duct systems and they often look awful with their crumbling concrete and sad, single-glazed fa c ades. the city centre has moved on but they just quietly died, empty, falling to pieces, and yet their sites were not worth the demolition and rebuilding costs they required. that is until the new site tax was brought in by the uk government, which makes owners pay the same tax whether a site is occupied or empty. this will cause tremendous hardship for many building owners and investors. even as i sit writing this on the train i leave behind a large dead building by the station at crewe. we see another being built in the middle of two-storey hemel hempstead, like a symbol of the complete lack of understanding of the local council who passed it of the fact that this glass tower, now not even a gesture to having real walls, is a dead building waiting to happen in a decade or so, and they will be left with the bill for making it safe or pulling it down. what were the planning officers or members thinking? let's make manhatten in hertfordshire? what do those poor people who have had the sun blotted out for them in perpetuity feel about it, and what mechanisms are in place to compensate them for the fact they can never warm their homes in winter or power them with free, clean energy ever again? in cities of the rust belt of north america, where the industries that spawned prosperity decades ago, like iron and steel, cars, railways, canal building, typewriters, washing machines and agricultural machinery, have died or moved to taiwan or china, even beautiful, fine, tall buildings of stone and brick lie empty. of the 18 towers in cleveland, ohio, eight are completely empty and others only partially occupied, and some of these could be counted amongst the world's great buildings. they have simply lost their economic raison d ' e tre many cities today are building towers without a clear economic function. in leeds, manchester and liverpool many of the recently built towers are partially or completely empty as the creditstarved buy-to-let markets evaporated, leaving many young and old people in chronic debt. this is happening everywhere developer greed knew no bounds when credit was cheap. the great new capital city of astana in kazakhstan is filling up an urban chessboard of tall glass tower buildings on the windblown siberian steppes. thousands of 200 000 - 1 million apartments exposed to freezing climate for a population where the average teacher earns around 15 000 a year. buildings with little economic future.
What do we agree on the discussion of the SO error?
we agree that the discussion of the so error had to few details and was not clearly presented
What is the main cause for the warm bias and underestimation of sea ice extent in this region?
excessive mixing between the surface and the deep ocean in the southern ocean is the main cause for the warm bias and underestimation of sea ice extent in this region
Why is it difficult to maintain a fresh and cold surface layer required for wintertime freezing of sea-ice?
the excessive mixing erodes the halocline and makes it difficult to maintain a fresh and cold surface layer required for wintertime freezing of sea-ice
we agree that the discussion of the so error had to few details and was not clearly presented. after reconsidering the model results, we now believe excessive mixing between the surface and the deep ocean in the southern ocean is the main cause for the warm bias and underestimation of sea ice extent in this region. the excessive mixing erodes the halocline and makes it difficult to maintain a fresh and cold surface layer required for wintertime freezing of sea-ice. the underestimation of sea-ice will in turn cause a warm bias in the model due to increased absorption of short-wave radiation. there are several factors that might contribute to this excessive mixing, and they are now briefly mentioned in the text. firstly, micoms mixed layer turbulent kinetic energy parameterization generally tends to generate too deep mixed layer depths at high latitudes. preliminary testing with a new mixed layer depth parameterization (oberhuber 1993) indicates much improved mixed layer depths at high latitudes compared to observations. secondly, the ocean model uses isopycnic layers with potential densities estimated with a reference pressure at 2000 db. the profile with 2000 db reference pressure gives a poor representation of stratification, even static instability, near the surface (see assmann et al 2009, gmdd, now in discussion). this makes it difficult for the model to represent a realistic halocline isolating the surface from the deeper ocean. finally, in micom the brine rejected during freezing of sea-ice is placed in surface layer. this tends to destabilize the water column near the surface. several studies indicate that a parameterization of salt-plumes can contribute to the maintenance of a more realistic halocline in ocean models not resolving these plumes. minor comments: p511, line4: detailed description on the turbulence scheme in the atmosphere will be useful for the readers. if there is a reference, this can be referenced. a new paragraph has been added to the text where the vertical diffusion scheme is described in more detail with appropriate references. in particular, the limitation that c238
What withstood environmental changes?
coral communities that appear more resilient to high ssts
What are some disturbances that have affected the area?
ship groundings, oil spills
What are some impacts on tropical marine ecosystems?
coral bleaching and major storms
designing marine reserves 147 table 1 ecological guidelines for designing marine reserve networks for fisheries management, biodiversity conservation, and climate change adaptation (continued) category ecological guidelines adapting to changes in climate and ocean chemistry protect refugia in marine reserves where habitats and species are likely to be more resistant or resilient to climate and ocean change including: * areas where habitats and species are known to have withstood environmental changes (or extremes) in the past (e.g., coral communities that appear more resilient to high ssts); * areas with historically variable ssts and ocean carbonate chemistry, where habitats and species are more likely to withstand changes in those parameters in future; and * areas adjacent to low-lying inland areas without infrastructure that coastal habitats (e.g., mangroves, tidal marshes and turtle nesting beaches) can expand into as sea levels rise. minimizing and avoiding local threats avoid placing marine reserves in areas that have been, or are likely to be, impacted by local threats (e.g., land based runoff) that cannot be managed effectively. place marine reserves in areas that have not been, or are less likely to be, impacted by local threats including: * areas where threats (e.g., overfishing or destructive fishing) can be managed effectively; and * areas within or adjacent to other effectively managed marine or terrestrial areas. integrate marine reserves within broader spatial planning and management regimes (e.g., large multiple-use mpas, eaf, ebm, and icm). management is in place outside reserves, or if fishing pressure is low, then a lesser level of protection (20%) is needed. these recommendations are supported by empirical studies that show that 20-30% habitat protection in marine reserves can achieve fisheries objectives in areas with different levels of fishing pressure (e.g., russ et al. 2008; russ and alcala 2010), which is also the minimum level of habitat protection recommended by iucn-wcpa (2008). risk spreading large-scale disturbances can have serious impacts on tropical marine ecosystems (e.g., coral bleaching and major storms: west and salm 2003; villanoy et al. 2012). since it is difficult to predict with certainty which areas are most likely to be affected by these and other disturbances (e.g., ship groundings, oil spills), it is important to protect at least three examples of each major habitat in marine reserves and spread them out to reduce the chance that all examples will be adversely impacted by the same disturbance (salm, done, and
what is carbon budget?
a carbon budget this tight suggests a profoundly more challenging timeframe and rate of mitigation than that typically asserted by many within the scientific community
what carbon budget do?
it demands a dramatic reversal of current trends in energy consumption and emissions growth: more than a fifth of the remaining budget has been emitted in just the past four years. to avoid exceeding 650 gt, global mitigation rates must rapidly ratchet up to around 10% per year by 2025, continuing at such a rate towards the virtual elimination of co2 from the energy system by 2050. the severity of such cuts would probably exclude the use of fossil fuels, even with carbon capture and storage (ccs), as a dominant post-2050 energy source. only if the life cycle carbon emissions of ccs could be reduced by an order of magnitude from those postulated for an efficiently operating gas-ccs power station (typically around 80 g co2 per kilowatt-hour13), could fossil fuels play any significant role beyond 2050. delivering on such a 2 degc emission pathway cannot be reconciled with the repeated high-level claims that in transitioning to a low-carbon energy system "global economic growth would not be strongly affected"2
what happens with economic growth
with economic growth of 3% per year, the reduction in carbon intensity of global gross domestic product would need to be nearer 13% per year; higher still for wealthier industrialized nations, and higher yet again for those individuals with well above average carbon footprints (whether in industrial or industrializing nations
a carbon budget this tight suggests a profoundly more challenging timeframe and rate of mitigation than that typically asserted by many within the scientific community. it demands a dramatic reversal of current trends in energy consumption and emissions growth: more than a fifth of the remaining budget has been emitted in just the past four years. to avoid exceeding 650 gt, global mitigation rates must rapidly ratchet up to around 10% per year by 2025, continuing at such a rate towards the virtual elimination of co2 from the energy system by 2050. the severity of such cuts would probably exclude the use of fossil fuels, even with carbon capture and storage (ccs), as a dominant post-2050 energy source. only if the life cycle carbon emissions of ccs could be reduced by an order of magnitude from those postulated for an efficiently operating gas-ccs power station (typically around 80 g co2 per kilowatt-hour13), could fossil fuels play any significant role beyond 2050. delivering on such a 2 degc emission pathway cannot be reconciled with the repeated high-level claims that in transitioning to a low-carbon energy system "global economic growth would not be strongly affected"2. certainly it would be inappropriate to sacrifice improvements in the welfare of the global poor, including those within wealthier nations, for the sake of reducing carbon emissions. but this only puts greater pressure on the lifestyles of the relatively small proportion of the globe's population with higher emissions -- pressure that cannot be massaged away through incremental escapism. with economic growth of 3% per year, the reduction in carbon intensity of global gross domestic product would need to be nearer 13% per year; higher still for wealthier industrialized nations, and higher yet again for those individuals with well above average carbon footprints (whether in industrial or industrializing nations).
What is the abbreviation of IAMs?
the integrated assessment models (iams
What are actions were taken to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions?
the integrated assessment models (iams) that economists use to analyze the expected costs and benefits of climate policies frequently suggest that the "optimal" policy is to go slowly and to do relatively little in the near term to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
What is the short term financial decision was made?
we trace this finding to the contestable assumptions and limitations of iams. for example, they typically discount future impacts from climate change at relatively high rates. this practice may be appropriate for short-term financial decisions
the integrated assessment models (iams) that economists use to analyze the expected costs and benefits of climate policies frequently suggest that the "optimal" policy is to go slowly and to do relatively little in the near term to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. we trace this finding to the contestable assumptions and limitations of iams. for example, they typically discount future impacts from climate change at relatively high rates. this practice may be appropriate for short-term financial decisions but its extension to intergenerational environmental issues rests on several empirically and philosophically controversial hypotheses. iams also assign monetary values to the benefits of climate mitigation on the basis of incomplete information and sometimes speculative judgments concerning the monetary worth
what is the new use of the climate relict concept that involves two major conceptual shifts?
first, we suggest moving away from a purely descriptive biogeographic context and shifting toward adopting a stronger ecological and (micro)evolutionary focus. second, we propose abandoning the emphasis on entire species and instead emphasizing those populations that are persisting close to their climatic tolerance limit
what this reorientaion of climate relict provides?
provides a framework that allows the formulation and testing of specific hypotheses about the response of natural populations to a changing environment
what are the three possible responses of populations to climate change are considered?
migration, adaptation, and extinction
here we propose a new use of the climate relict concept that involves two major conceptual shifts. first, we suggest moving away from a purely descriptive biogeographic context and shifting toward adopting a stronger ecological and (micro)evolutionary focus. second, we propose abandoning the emphasis on entire species and instead emphasizing those populations that are persisting close to their climatic tolerance limit. this reorientation of the climate relict provides a framework that allows the formulation and testing of specific hypotheses about the response of natural populations to a changing environment. through the rest of this review, we define climate relicts as those populations of a species that persist in isolated enclaves of suitable climate space surrounded by areas with climatic conditions that do not permit the existence of the species. the current confinement of such populations results from a change in climate once more favorable for growth and reproduction, a change that has led to the extinction of conspecific populations that once inhabited these now climatically inhospitable intervening areas. we emphasize that our expanded definition involves a demonstrable link between current climatic conditions and population performance. such climatic constraints can be either direct or indirect through their mediation of biotic interactions. three possible responses of populations to climate change are usually considered (davis et al. 2005, parmesan 2006): migration, adaptation, and extinction. climate relict populations have very limited opportunities for migration. moreover, many have probably been exposed to stronger and longer-lasting climate-related selection than their conspecifics from the main distribution range jansson dynesius 2002). nevertheless, they have not gone extinct. this particular combination renders climate relicts as instructive models and natural laboratories for investigating how populations will react (and potentially adapt) to ongoing climatic changes (davis et al. 2005, hampe petit 2005).
What could you find out using this experiment?
in this study, we were able to attribute changes in species composition to shifts in the distribution of moisturestress related ecological strategies within the community
Why is different this study from others?
in this study, we were able to attribute changes in species composition to shifts in the distribution of moisturestress related ecological strategies within the community
Why is important to characterise the ecological strategies of microbial taxa?
characterising the ecological strategies of microbial taxa represents a potential way to predict responses to changes in rainfall regime or types of environmental change
both bacterial community composition and function have been shown to change with experimental manipulation of precipitation timing (fierer et al. 2003; clark et al. 2009) including in the ramps experiment examined here (evans wallenstein 2012), but most previous studies have not identified the ecological mechanisms driving these bacterial responses. in this study, we were able to attribute changes in species composition to shifts in the distribution of moisturestress related ecological strategies within the community. we found that a decade of exposure to more frequent dryingrewetting stress resulted in a greater proportion of taxa exhibiting a stress tolerant strategy compared to communities exposed to the ambient precipitation regime, which contained a greater abundance of pulseor drought-sensitive organisms, consistent with our predictions. characterising the ecological strategies of microbial taxa represents a potential way to predict responses to changes in rainfall regime or types of environmental change, which could be linked to specific effect traits that are likely to affect function (barnard et al. 2013). we identified ecological strategies based on changes in the relative abundance of taxa following moisture pulses in the lab, which integrates population growth, death, survival and
What biological activity was being measured in this experiment?
biological activity of soil fauna and micro-organisms was determined indirectly from the decay of cellulose using mini-container tubes (kreyling et al. 2008a
What factors in this experiment represent the constants with regards to the use of the Scientific Method?
in total, 864 mini-containers were filled with 0.2 g of cellulose (poor in phosphorus, schleicher schu" ll, dassel, germany) each, closed with a 2-mm mesh, and put into container tubes, consisting of 12 mini-containers each. two tubes were buried horizontally 1 cm below soil surface in each grassland plot
biological activity of soil fauna and micro-organisms was determined indirectly from the decay of cellulose using mini-container tubes (kreyling et al. 2008a). in total, 864 mini-containers were filled with 0.2 g of cellulose (poor in phosphorus, schleicher schu" ll, dassel, germany) each, closed with a 2-mm mesh, and put into container tubes, consisting of 12 mini-containers each. two tubes were buried horizontally 1 cm below soil surface in each grassland plot. after 94 days, one tube per plot was harvested, whereas the others were harvested after 186 days. after careful cleaning and drying, the decay of cellulose was determined by subtracting final ashes-free dry mass from initial dry mass (105  c).
estimates of costs?
the unfccc estimates of costs of adaptation are the costs of the intervention set to prevent the additional burden of disease due to climate change for three health outcomes in lowand middleincome countries: diarrhoeal diseases, malaria and malnutrition
What is total?
that total has yet to be assessed accurately, but authors of the who study of the global disease burden estimate that these outcomes amount to 30-50% of the probable future total burden in 2030 in lowand middle-income countries (mcmichael and bertollini, 2009, personal communication
under-estimation is?
a potential source of under-estimation is that the unfccc considers a narrow range of development futures
the unfccc estimates of costs of adaptation are the costs of the intervention set to prevent the additional burden of disease due to climate change for three health outcomes in lowand middleincome countries: diarrhoeal diseases, malaria and malnutrition. the estimates are in the range of $4-12 billion per year in 2030. these three outcomes are not the total projected burden on human health from climate change. that total has yet to be assessed accurately, but authors of the who study of the global disease burden estimate that these outcomes amount to 30-50% of the probable future total burden in 2030 in lowand middle-income countries (mcmichael and bertollini, 2009, personal communication). a potential source of under-estimation is that the unfccc considers a narrow range of development futures. it takes a single median population projection in which population numbers increase and cases of diarrhoea/malaria/malnutrition remain constant, i.e. there is steep relative decline in incidence. the present study considers this to be an optimistic assumption.
What do the authors find?
the authors find quasi-constant enstrophy and energy compared to a standard numerical design (fig. 1
What do Gassmann and Herzog suggest?
gassmann and herzog (2008) suggest a radically new concept for a global numerical simulation of the non-hydrostatic atmosphere using the nambu representation for the energy-helicity bracket {f ha, h} n'evir 1998
What might the use of dynamical cores provide?
the use of dynamical cores constructed according to the sophisticated version of fluid dynamics discussed here might provide crucial for improving the ability of atmospheric models in representing correctly the global budgets of physically relevant quantities also in the case when forcing and dissipative processes are taken into account
the authors find quasi-constant enstrophy and energy compared to a standard numerical design (fig. 1). along these lines, gassmann and herzog (2008) suggest a radically new concept for a global numerical simulation of the non-hydrostatic atmosphere using the nambu representation for the energy-helicity bracket {f ha, h} n'evir 1998). their suggestion incorporates a careful description of reynolds averaged subscale processes and budgets. gassmann (2013) describes a global non-hydrostatic dynamical core based on an icosahedral nonhydrostatic model on a hexagonal c-grid. the model conserves mass and energy in a noncanonical hamiltonian framework,even if some still unsolved numerical problems occur when the non-hydrostatic compressible equations are in a nambu bracket form. the use of dynamical cores constructed according to the sophisticated version of fluid dynamics discussed here might provide crucial for improving the ability of atmospheric models in representing correctly the global budgets of physically relevant quantities also in the case when forcing and dissipative processes are taken into account. as discussed by lucarini and ragone (2011) for the case of energy, this is far from being a trivial task.
What causes reduction in the oxygen available to aquatic organisms?
due to the principles of water chemistry that dictate gas solubility decreases with temperature, warming will cause a reduction in the oxygen available to aquatic organisms
What is the consequence of nonlinear relationship between oxygen solubility and water temperature?
as a consequence, the effect of warming temperatures on solubility will be especially pronounced in high latitude, temperate and arctic estuaries where water temperatures are initially lower and predicted rates of warming are higher
What is the direct effect of atmospheric warming on oxygen solubility?
within a given estuary, the direct effects of atmospheric warming on oxygen solubility will be greater in surface waters; however, oxygen replenishment to deeper waters will also be reduced via the transport of warmer, less oxygen-rich surface waters
simply due to the principles of water chemistry that dictate gas solubility decreases with temperature, warming will cause a reduction in the oxygen available to aquatic organisms (weiss, 1970). this basic relationship between oxygen solubility and water temperature is nonlinear, with greater sensitivity at lower temperatures (fig. 4). as a consequence, the effect of warming temperatures on solubility will be especially pronounced in high latitude, temperate and arctic estuaries where water temperatures are initially lower and predicted rates of warming are higher. within a given estuary, the direct effects of atmospheric warming on oxygen solubility will be greater in surface waters; however, oxygen replenishment to deeper waters will also be reduced via the transport of warmer, less oxygen-rich surface waters (meier et al. 2011b).
Explain coherent integrative modelling framework?
assume that some coherent integrative modelling framework is required for powerful policy advice. in other words, while important research should proceed using "little models" to develop key theoretical and econometric insights, something beyond a highly-simplified pared-down model is required to combine these individual insights together
What is the advantage and disadvantage of DSGE?
assume that some coherent integrative modelling framework is required for powerful policy advice. in other words, while important research should proceed using "little models" to develop key theoretical and econometric insights, something beyond a highly-simplified pared-down model is required to combine these individual insights together
Describe  Traditional macroeconomic DSGE models?
traditional macroeconomic dsge models tended to emulate how a forwardlooking fully rational representative agent forms expectations about a future characterised by stochastic events or outcomes. more recently, traeger 2015 extended golosov et al. 2014 )'s dsge model to include (i) a much richer climate model (with standard carbon cycle, radiative forcing, temperature dynamics) as well as epstein-zin preferences (see our discussion in sect. 2 ). like golosov et al. 2014 ), he also finds that optimal carbon tax is independent of the absolute stock of carbon in the atmosphere (see also bretschger and vinogradova 2014 
assume that some coherent integrative modelling framework is required for powerful policy advice. in other words, while important research should proceed using "little models" to develop key theoretical and econometric insights, something beyond a highly-simplified pared-down model is required to combine these individual insights together. then, it follows that the second and third research pathways are clearly the major options available. it is therefore helpful to directly compare and contrast the advantages and disadvantages of dsge models and abms, to understand where they are complementary and where their differences may generate knowledge as part of a third wave of modelling the economics of climate change. we structure the comparison along the lines of the shortcomings in the previous section, namely according to their ability to generate improvements in the modelling of (i) uncertainty, (ii) aggregation and distributional issues, (iii) technological change and (iv) the damage function (table 1 ). as before, we also briefly address other areas where improvements are possible, including modelling the financial system, realistic agent decision-making, learning and adaptation, assumptions about equilibrium and testing and calibration. (i) uncertainty both dsge models and abms are able to incorporate uncertainty into agent decision-making processes. traditional macroeconomic dsge models tended to emulate how a forwardlooking fully rational representative agent forms expectations about a future characterised by stochastic events or outcomes. more recently, traeger 2015 extended golosov et al. 2014 )'s dsge model to include (i) a much richer climate model (with standard carbon cycle, radiative forcing, temperature dynamics) as well as epstein-zin preferences (see our discussion in sect. 2 ). like golosov et al. 2014 ), he also finds that optimal carbon tax is independent of the absolute stock of carbon in the atmosphere (see also bretschger and vinogradova 2014 ). his analytical framework allows him to distinguish between the effects of: (i) the rate of pure time preference (very strong) versus the expected consumption growth rate; (ii) "missing carbon
What is the trend found in global glimate change?
as the climate continues to warm, changes in several types of temperature extremes have been observed (donat et al., 2013), and are expected to continue in the future in concert with global warming (seneviratne et al., 2012
When do extremes occur?
extremes occur on multiple time scales, from a single day or a few consecutive days (a heat wave) to monthly and seasonal events
How are extreme temperature events defined?
extreme temperature events are often defined by indices (see box 2.4 for the common definitions used), for example, percentage of days in a year when maximum temperature is above the 90th percentile of a present day distribution or by long period return values
as the climate continues to warm, changes in several types of temperature extremes have been observed (donat et al., 2013), and are expected to continue in the future in concert with global warming (seneviratne et al., 2012). extremes occur on multiple time scales, from a single day or a few consecutive days (a heat wave) to monthly and seasonal events. extreme temperature events are often defined by indices (see box 2.4 for the common definitions used), for example, percentage of days in a year when maximum temperature is above the 90th percentile of a present day distribution or by long period return values. although changes in temperature extremes are a very robust
What is identifying the effect of climate on societies central to?
identifying the effect of climate on societies is central to understanding historical economic development, designing modern policies that react to climatic events, and managing future global climate change
What are some examples of recent advances?
the parameterization of climate variables from a social perspective, use of nonlinear models with spatial and temporal displacement, characterization of uncertainty, measurement of adaptation, cross-study comparison, and use of empirical estimates
What is the concluding topic?
i conclude by discussing remaining methodological challenges
identifying the effect of climate on societies is central to understanding historical economic development, designing modern policies that react to climatic events, and managing future global climate change. here, i review, synthesize, and interpret recent advances in methods used to measure effects of climate on social and economic outcomes. because weather variation plays a large role in recent progress, i formalize the relationship between climate and weather from an econometric perspective and discuss the use of these two factors as identifying variation, highlighting trade-offs between key assumptions in different research designs and deriving conditions when weather variation exactly identifies the effects of climate. i then describe recent advances, such as the parameterization of climate variables from a social perspective, use of nonlinear models with spatial and temporal displacement, characterization of uncertainty, measurement of adaptation, cross-study comparison, and use of empirical estimates to project the impact of future climate change. i conclude by discussing remaining methodological challenges.
How do livestock genetic adaptation responses vary?
livestock genetic adaptation responses will vary from intensifying and managed systems to adaptive systems in more marginal environments
How has market pull changed the selection of animals in tropical breeds?
traditionally, the selection of animals in tropical breeds has been an adaptive one, but in recent times, market pull has stimulated a rapidly changing demand for higher production that could not be met quickly enough by breed improvement of indigenous animals
Has widespread cross-breeding more often shown good or poor results?
widespread cross-breeding of animals, mostly with "improver" breeds from temperate regions, crossed with local animals, has occurred - often with poor results
livestock genetic adaptation responses will vary from intensifying and managed systems to adaptive systems in more marginal environments. traditionally, the selection of animals in tropical breeds has been an adaptive one, but in recent times, market pull has stimulated a rapidly changing demand for higher production that could not be met quickly enough by breed improvement of indigenous animals. widespread cross-breeding of animals, mostly with "improver" breeds from temperate regions, crossed with local animals, has occurred - often with poor results. little systematic study has been conducted on matching genetic resources to different farming and market chain systems from already adapted and higher producing tropical breeds. however, given the even greater climatic variability and stresses anticipated, this is a most logical response to the adaptive challenges that will be faced.
Does climate variability have more than one cause?
variability may be due to natural internal processes within the climate system (internal variability), or to variations in natural or anthropogenic external forcing (external variability
Do non-climatic factors account for adverse effects only?
we prefer the neutral term 'non-climatic factors' over 'non-climatic stressors' or 'non-climatic risk factors' because these factors may have beneficial as well as adverse effects
Does climate change necessarily mean less precipitation?
a notable exception to this rule concerns the intensity of precipitation events, where the vast majority of climate simulations suggest an increase of heavy rains in a warming world
climate variability: variations in the mean state and other statistics (such as standard deviations, the occurrence of extremes, etc.) of the climate on all temporal and spatial scales beyond that of individual weather events. variability may be due to natural internal processes within the climate system (internal variability), or to variations in natural or anthropogenic external forcing (external variability). climate variability constitutes an important component of a system's exposure to climatic stimuli. global climate change will be superimposed on, and will substantially affect, existing climate variability including the frequency, intensity, and location of extreme events. however, consideration of these effects in model-based impact assessments has been limited to date due to disagreement between different climate models on future changes in climate variability. a notable exception to this rule concerns the intensity of precipitation events, where the vast majority of climate simulations suggest an increase of heavy rains in a warming world (cubasch et al., 2001). vulnerability assessments tend to focus on the vulnerable system and the multiple stresses that may threaten it rather than on the multiple effects of a particular stress factor such as climate change (ribot, 1995). therefore, they rely heavily on the availability of consistent scenarios for the different stressors, in particular when they are causally related to each other. the latest set of ipcc emission scenarios, the so-called sres scenarios (nakicenovic and swart, 2000), are an important step forward to this end. these scenarios aim at being consistent in terms of emissions and non-climate drivers, in particular demographic and economic development. however, the spatial resolution of the sres scenarios, which distinguish only four world regions, is generally insufficient for climate change vulnerability assessment. the importance of consistent multi-dimensional scenarios is also acknowledged in other advanced vulnerability assessments. the most prominent example is the millennium ecosystem assessment, a global effort to analyze on a global, regional, and local scale the state of ecosystems, their capacity to provide goods and services, the multiple stresses that they are facing, and the potential for human actions to protect ecosystem goods and services by moderating these stresses (ahmed and reid, 2002). one of the four working groups of the millennium ecosystem assessment is exclusively concerned with the development of consistent scenarios for a comprehensive set of driving forces (gewin, 2002). non-climatic factors comprise a wide range of environmental, economic, social, demographic, technological, and political factors. we prefer the neutral term 'non-climatic factors' over 'non-climatic stressors' or 'non-climatic risk factors' because these factors may have beneficial as well as adverse effects. non-climatic factors can affect the sensitivity of a system to climatic stimuli as well as its exposure for instance, a household or a community that relocates for reasons not related to climate change will change its exposure to climatic stimuli. the distinction between changes in sensitivity and changes in exposure is not always straightforward
What percentage of the external wall glazed in the buildings of heavy construction with sun controls provided?
this study concluded that buildings of heavy construction could have up to 50% of the external wall glazed, but that unless sun controls were provided, glass areas in buildings with lightweight internal walls and ceiling should be restricted to 20% of the wall area, if they face south and are not shaded
What is the symptom of overglazing in modern office buildings?
the blinds are so often closed, resulting in higher lighting energy use and not reducing the overheating problem
What phenomenon could be the basis for the greenhouse effect?
once solar radiation has passed through glass, it is absorbed and re-emitted at a different wavelength at which it can no longer travel back out through the glass
this study concluded that buildings of heavy construction could have up to 50% of the external wall glazed, but that unless sun controls were provided, glass areas in buildings with lightweight internal walls and ceiling should be restricted to 20% of the wall area, if they face south and are not shaded. if temperatures of 27 deg c were considered acceptable then this area could be extended to 30% of the wall area in noisy areas and 50% in quiet ones for lightweight buildings. if more glass was required for reasons of introducing sunlight or the view then excess heat could be removed by air conditioning; however, this was expensive and should be considered as a last choice after proper building design and the use of external shading. this study was one of the building blocks from which the ' admittance method ' was developed. 4 the performance of passive and low-energy cooling systems is, by their very nature, much more sensitive to climate than is the performance of refrigeration-based systems, and the lowenergy cooling systems require higher levels of internal thermal mass in buildings and will never be successfully applied in lightweight, overglazed buildings that get too hot to handle without throwing vast amounts of energy at them to cool them on hot days. what the admittance method shows is that mass is essential to sensible, passive building design. a clear symptom of overglazing in modern office buildings is that the blinds are so often closed, resulting in higher lighting energy use and not reducing the overheating problem. once solar radiation has passed through glass, it is absorbed and re-emitted at a different wavelength at which it can no longer travel back out through the glass. this phenomenon is the basis for the greenhouse effect, and means that even with the blinds down, the building overheats. that glass buildings with little or no shading cause severe overheating is an even more severe problem in hotter climates. from the gulf, where the inside temperatures recorded on glass walls often reach over 60 - 80 deg c, to many fashionable modern buildings where internal temperatures soar on hot days, even with the air conditioning on, it appears as if, for some architects, the penny has not dropped that it is extremely difficult to live comfortably in a ' greenhouse ' that is without the added problems of the hotter climate and the rising energy costs of trying to keep such buildings cool.
What is meant by vulnerability reduction?
vulnerability reduction may be undertaken spontaneously by the private sector, or individuals or it can be guided by government
What did the discussions reveal?
the discussions revealed a clear lack of consensus about who should take the lead in responding to climate change and what should be done
What are some of the suggestions to tackle the problem?
suggestions include: single government departments spearheading a campaign, industry, individuals, an intra-governmental agency, ngos and political leaders
this lack of prioritisation provides an argument for the government to take a lead on changing attitudes towards climate change. vulnerability reduction may be undertaken spontaneously by the private sector, or individuals or it can be guided by government. if the latter approach is selected, the process can begin by making institutional changes and through persuasion. 6.3. institutional change: responsibility for managing climate impacts for climate change, institutional change could play a role in changing attitudes, either through changes in local legislation or new organisational arrangements, which prioritise management of climate change impacts. respondents were asked who should be responsible for the management of climate change issues and what actions could be taken in anticipation of climate impacts. the discussions revealed a clear lack of consensus about who should take the lead in responding to climate change and what should be done. suggestions include: single government departments spearheading a campaign, industry, individuals, an intra-governmental agency, ngos and political leaders. nonetheless it was clear from the responses that allocation of responsibility is an important precursor to more complex processes of institutional change. respondents suggested that command by government, through the allocation of a responsible agent or agency to manage climate change responses, or through the creation of new rules or structures may be the most appropriate form of persuasion in managing climate change. specifically, it was recommended that legislation should be modified to build in climate change risk, particularly to: mitigate against specific climate impacts such as sea level rise; modify laws for construction of roads and buildings to increase their ability to withstand every day weather; create a disaster fund for relief in situations of extreme weather; increase the minimum elevation for developments on reclaimed land to prevent future flooding; and develop a national energy policy, as proposed in vision 2008 government of the cayman islands, 1999 ). changed storminess and sea level rise are unlikely to be the only impacts of climate change that the cayman islands might experience. yet, these are the areas most respondents focused on during the interviews. as with the evolution of the national hurricane committee, it is possible that by allocating responsibility for managing climate change responses to a group, and supporting that by changes in behavioural norms
What factor does the UNFCCC not consider when calculating investment costs for infrastructure?
the unfccc estimates for the investments needed to adapt infrastructure to climate-change risks do not include the costs of the infrastructure that can dramatically reduce the impacts of extreme weather
Name some factors that can reduce the impact on populations.
for many extreme-weather events in urban and rural areas with large infrastructure deficits and poor-quality housing, good early-warning systems, measures taken just before the extreme-event and rapid and effective post-event responses (temporary accommodation, restoring access to services, supporting rapid return to settlements damaged and supporting rebuilding) greatly reduce the impacts on populations
Is climate change expected to increase or decrease costs going forward?
climate change is likely to increase these costs considerably, even with adapted infrastructure
the unfccc estimates are based on a very narrow consideration of 'infrastructure' which means that housing gets left out, although one of the most serious likely impacts of climate change is a large increase in damage to or destruction of housing. no consideration is given to the cost of developing the institutional/governance capacity to build and adapt needed infrastructure. in addition, no consideration is given to social infrastructure, despite its importance for reducing climate-change risk. the unfccc estimates for the investments needed to adapt infrastructure to climate-change risks do not include the costs of the infrastructure that can dramatically reduce the impacts of extreme weather. for many extreme-weather events in urban and rural areas with large infrastructure deficits and poor-quality housing, good early-warning systems, measures taken just before the extreme-event and rapid and effective post-event responses (temporary accommodation, restoring access to services, supporting rapid return to settlements damaged and supporting rebuilding) greatly reduce the impacts on populations. the method used by the unfccc for estimating the additional investment needed to adapt infrastructure includes no consideration of the infrastructural damage that cannot be prevented by adaptation, stemming both from conscious choice (locations/facilities/structures for which full protection is judged to be too costly) and from the incapacity on the part of those at risk and of those institutions responsible for reducing this risk (including local and national governments). in regard to residual damage, taking a conservative estimate, between 1996 and 2005, large extremeweather disasters caused an average of more than 20,000 deaths a year and had economic costs averaging over $50 billion a year (most arising from flooding and windstorms). this is in effect the 'residual damage' from the inadequacies or impossibilities of protecting against extreme weather today. climate change is likely to increase these costs considerably, even with adapted infrastructure.
What is the first diagonostic question (DQ)  ?
accordingly, three diagnostic questions (dq) emerge (table 1 that policy makers will need to answer when deliberating how to intervene to address super wicked problems: dq1: what can be done to create stickiness making reversibility immediately difficult
What do super wicked problems require?
we argue that super wicked problems require the adoption of new policy analysis techniques that are consistent with, rather than ignore, the key features of this class of problems
What is the second diagonostic question?
dq2: what can be done to entrench support over time
hence, we explore how policies built on the causal logics of path-dependent processes can help constrain future behavior to achieve desirable longer-term social benefits. just as hardin and ostrom argued a solution to resource depletion lay in developing new institutional arrangements to overcome the human tendency to overexploit, we argue that super wicked problems require the adoption of new policy analysis techniques that are consistent with, rather than ignore, the key features of this class of problems. accordingly, three diagnostic questions (dq) emerge (table 1 that policy makers will need to answer when deliberating how to intervene to address super wicked problems: dq1: what can be done to create stickiness making reversibility immediately difficult? dq2: what can be done to entrench support over time? dq3: what can be done to expand the population that supports the policy?
What the two notable common biase outside the warm pool region?
excessive rainfall over the eastern pacific in most models and insufficient rainfall over central/south america in many models
What was the indication of intraseasonal studies?
previous observational studies indicate that the intraseasonal variance of convection is highly correlated with time-mean convective intensity
previous observational studies indicate that the intraseasonal variance of convection is highly correlated with time-mean convective intensity (e.g., wk; hendon et al. 1999). therefore, we first look at the 8-yr timemean precipitation along the equatorial belt, especially over the indo-pacific warm pool region, where most of the convectively coupled equatorial waves have the largest variance (wk). figure 3a shows the annual mean precipitation versus longitude averaged between 15degn and 15degs. to focus on the large-scale features, we smoothed the data zonally to retain only zonal wavenumbers 0-6. all models reproduce the basic feature of observed precipitation, with the primary maximum over the indo-pacific warm pool region, and two secondary maxima over central/south america and africa. the magnitude of the precipitation over the warm pool in all models is close to that in the observations. within the warm pool region, several models (gfdlcm2.0, gfdl-cm2.1, ccsm3, giss-aom, cnrmcm3, miroc3.2-medres) do not reproduce the local minimum of precipitation over the maritime continent, and there is a tendency for the models to produce more precipitation over the western pacific than over the eastern indian ocean, which is a feature in 1dd data but not in gpi data. outside the warm pool region, two notable common biases are excessive rainfall over the eastern pacific in most models and insufficient rainfall over central/south america in many models.
whether it is easy to justify the persons to pick?
i think it would always be easy to justify why this person was picked majority male
how many minorities are applying for the job?
there were two of us, two underrepresented minorities applying for jobs
within how many weeks there was a postion?
it was interesting that in the space of two weeks, all of a sudden, there's a position
because that [bias] can express itself so subtlety. there can always be justifications made for picking one candidate over another because we're very fortunate here that we do get really phenomenal candidates, and so i think it would always be easy to justify why this person was picked majority male there were two of us, two underrepresented minorities applying for jobs, we were told, point blank there are no positions and there was one other person who was with us who got a position they still hired this one person who was obviously not underrepresented minority at all. it was interesting that in the space of two weeks, all of a sudden, there's a position. urm female i have been called to explain why don't i have more american trainees it was an awkward place to be in, to try to explain something that i wasn't sure i needed to be explaining. mixed group female
What is a difficulty with this kind of Bayesian analysis?
a difficulty with this kind of bayesian analysis is how to validate the statistical assumptions
What kind of thinking leads to a cross-validation approach?
if we think of the given climate models as a random sample from the universe of possible climate models, we can ask ourselves how well the statistical approach would do in predicting the response of a new climate model
Is direct validation based on actual observations of future climate feasible?
direct validation based on actual observations of future climate is obviously not feasible
a difficulty with this kind of bayesian analysis is how to validate the statistical assumptions. direct validation based on actual observations of future climate is obviously not feasible. however the 10 following alternative viewpoint is feasible: if we think of the given climate models as a random sample from the universe of possible climate models, we can ask ourselves how well the statistical approach would do in predicting the response of a new climate model. this leads to a crossvalidation approach. in effect, this makes an assumptions of exchangability among the available climate models. in more detail, suppose someone gave us a new climate model for which the projected current and future temperature means were x+and y+. conditionally on the hyperparameters u, n, b, th, al
What is the peak period consumption for energy?
high air conditioning use in very hot weather
How much did the USA want to increase the percentage of energy created by gas powered stations?
from 16% in 1999 to 45% by 2005
excessive energy demand at peak period consumption, related in a large part to high air conditioning use in very hot weather. <s121>* lack of energy conservation measures in buildings and equipment. <s121>* poorly managed energy tariff systems. <s121>* lack of coordination of plant outages on an emergency basis. <s121>* lack of back-up generating capacity. <s121>* poor state management of the sector. <s121>* corrupt private utilities. by contrast, in new england in the usa the electricity supply problems are different. the plans to increase the percentage of electricity generated by gas-powered stations from 16% in 1999 to 45% by 2005 proved unrealistic, not only because of the soaring cost of gas in the usa but also because:
What do indicators such as Palmer Drought Severity Index and Standard precipitation Index evaluate?
commonly used indicators (such as the palmer drought severity index and the standard precipitation index) evaluate the balance between incoming (through precipitation snow/ice melt runoff) and outgoing (through evaporation, transpiration, and groundwater recharge) moisture (12, 13
What are the two divergent views regarding the climate change?
previous studies dismissing any link between anthropogenic climate change and the current california drought (5 - 7) have focused exclusively on only one part of this balance, the " incoming " part. these studies argue that climate change cannot be tied to the low levels of precipitation that have accompanied the drought. another study (8) argues instead that the unusually strong atmospheric ridge in the west that has been associated with the drought (what has been termed the " ridiculously resilient ridge " was made more likely by global warming
In the face of divergent findings how is the mystery solved?
diffenbaugh et al. (2) seem to solve that mystery in their latest assessment. as noted earlier in fig. 1, recent years haven ' t just been hot and they haven ' t just been dry: they ' ve been very hot and very dry at the same time. climate change appears to be
commonly used indicators (such as the palmer drought severity index and the standard precipitation index) evaluate the balance between incoming (through precipitation snow/ice melt runoff) and outgoing (through evaporation, transpiration, and groundwater recharge) moisture (12, 13). previous studies dismissing any link between anthropogenic climate change and the current california drought (5 - 7) have focused exclusively on only one part of this balance, the " incoming " part. these studies argue that climate change cannot be tied to the low levels of precipitation that have accompanied the drought. another study (8) argues instead that the unusually strong atmospheric ridge in the west that has been associated with the drought (what has been termed the " ridiculously resilient ridge " was made more likely by global warming. how can one reconcile these divergent findings? diffenbaugh et al. (2) seem to solve that mystery in their latest assessment. as noted earlier in fig. 1, recent years haven ' t just been hot and they haven ' t just been dry: they ' ve been very hot and very dry at the same time. climate change appears to be
How do herbara collectively represent the northeastern United States?
th ese herbaria collectively represent the largest holdings of plants of the northeastern united states and include both very old collections (huh, yu) and more recent ones (conn
When was the majority of herbarium specimens collected?
th e majority of herbarium specimens were collected between the late 1800s and mid-1900s
What does data from herbarium specimens provide?
in contrast, data from herbarium specimens provides only an approximation of earliest fl owering date for those specimens, which may or may not be correlated with fi rst fl owering date observed in the fi eld
field observations of fi rst fl owering date for concord were recorded by th oreau (1852-1858), hosmer (1875, 1878-1903), miller-rushing and primack (2003-2006) miller-rushing and primack, 2008 ), and this paper's coauthors davis and connolly (2011-2013: fi eld data fi rst reported and used herein). field observations by davis and connolly applied a similar method to the one outlined by primack et al. (2009) from april to september, multiple sites throughout the concord area were visited 1-3 times weekly to systematically record fl owering dates. similar to primack et al., davis and connolly also consulted local botanical experts about the location and fl owering time of certain species. estimates of earliest fl owering dates for herbarium records were based on data collected during visits to the harvard university herbaria (huh), new york botanical garden's william and lynda steere herbarium (ny), yale university herbarium (yu), and university of connecticut's george saff ord torrey herbarium (conn) by coauthor kelly. th ese herbaria collectively represent the largest holdings of plants of the northeastern united states and include both very old collections (huh, yu) and more recent ones (conn). we fi rst identifi ed fl owering specimens from ma for each of our target species. following primack et al. (2004) we recorded locality, collection date, accession number (when provided), and collector for specimens with fully open fl owers. when multiple fl owers were present on a specimen, it was recorded as fl owering if >=75% of them were fully opened. specimens that had a majority of fl ower buds or fruit were ignored, as were those with insuffi cient or illegible collection data. th e majority of herbarium specimens were collected between the late 1800s and mid-1900s. when there were multiple specimens for the same species in a given year (which occurred only for <3% of the data collected), we used the earliest record for a species x county combination in a given year as our estimate of earliest fl owering date. finally, we emphasize that the earliest fl owering date estimated from herbarium specimens is diff erent from fi rst fl owering date recorded by fi eld observers. observational records are the gold standard for phenological research and estimate fi rst fl owering date with a high degree of accuracy. in contrast, data from herbarium specimens provides only an approximation of earliest fl owering date for those specimens, which may or may not be correlated with fi rst fl owering date observed in the fi eld. however, our goal was to assess changes in fl owering as a function of both interannual temperature variation and long-term changes in climate. although we expected diff erences between the observed fi rst day of fl owering and estimated date of fl owering estimated from herbarium specimens, the aim of this study was to assess whether these two data types estimate similar responses to both short-term and long-term climatic change. we hypothesized that estimated changes in earliest
Who wrote about America's declining social capital?
richard putnam
What will we need to do to adapt to future challenges?
the scale of the adaptation challenge ahead of us is enormous and will require both strong governments and strong communities to succeed
How will we achieve low-energy buildings?
we need strong and visionary government
in this book, you have the evidence of the scale of the impacts and trends that have gone before and that shed light on the future. the scale of the adaptation challenge ahead of us is enormous and will require both strong governments and strong communities to succeed. set out in tables 16.3 and 16.4 is a range of strategies that must be followed to ensure that we succeed in the endeavour. 31 if we are to achieve a generation of truly low-energy buildings, to manage the retreat of communities from coastal and riverine flood plains, to retool our industry for the lowcarbon, fossil fuel-free future, we need strong and visionary government. we are not talking about just rearranging the deck chairs on the titanic. we are looking at the need, in the face of growing global populations, increasing resource depletion, and the slowing 32 and possible eventual collapse of the growth economies to change the direction our lives and societies are heading in. this means a reordering of society in such a way that equality of opportunity and access to resources becomes a reality and that the impacts of climate change are not disproportionately loaded onto one sector of society to the benefit of others. a good place to start looking for ways forward is to go back to where we started, at the beginning of the fossil fuel age, when a lack of mobility meant that communities were inevitably close and dependent to a large extent on that which they could produce around them. if we look at what we have lost socially since then, a good place to start is with the works of richard putnam, who wrote of america's declining social capital. in 2000, in bowling alone 33 he wrote on the realm of civic engagement and social connectedness and ably demonstrated that over the last three decades of the twentieth century there had been a fundamental shift in:
Summarize about Earth and Atmospheric Science?
school of earth and atmospheric sciences, georgia institute of technology, atlanta, georgia (manuscript received 21 august 2000, in final form 23 february 2001) in this study the utility of satellite-based leaf area index (lai) data in improving the simulation of nearsurface climate with the ncar community climate model, version 3 (ccm3), gcm is evaluated. the use of mean lai values, obtained from the advanced very high resolution radiometer pathfinder data for the 1980s, leads to notable warming and decreased precipitation over large parts of the northern hemisphere lands during the boreal summer
Tell us about the application of Loy values?
lai) data in improving the simulation of nearsurface climate with the ncar community climate model, version 3 (ccm3), gcm is evaluated. the use of mean lai values, obtained from the advanced very high resolution radiometer pathfinder data for the 1980s, leads to notable warming and decreased precipitation over large parts of the northern hemisphere lands during the boreal summer
school of earth and atmospheric sciences, georgia institute of technology, atlanta, georgia (manuscript received 21 august 2000, in final form 23 february 2001) in this study the utility of satellite-based leaf area index (lai) data in improving the simulation of nearsurface climate with the ncar community climate model, version 3 (ccm3), gcm is evaluated. the use of mean lai values, obtained from the advanced very high resolution radiometer pathfinder data for the 1980s, leads to notable warming and decreased precipitation over large parts of the northern hemisphere lands during the boreal summer. such warming and decreased rainfall reduces discrepancies between the simulated and observed near-surface temperature and precipitation fields. the impact of interannual vegetation extremes observed during the 1980s on near-surface climate is also investigated by utilizing the maximum and minimum lai values from the 10-yr lai record. surface energy budget analysis indicates that the dominant impact of interannual lai variations is modification of the partitioning of net radiant energy between latent and sensible heat fluxes brought about through changes in the proportion of energy absorbed by the vegetation canopy and the underlying ground and not from surface albedo changes. the enhanced latent heat activity in the greener scenario leads to an annual cooling of the earth land surface of about 0.3  c, accompanied by an increase in precipitation of 0.04 mm day 1. the tropical evergreen forests and temperate grasslands contribute most to this cooling and increased rainfall. these results illustrate the importance and utility of satellite-based vegetation lai data in simulations of near-surface climate variability.
Who published the meta analysis of results of 69 published studies from 1993 to 2006 at multiple simulation sites?
easterling et al. 2007 present figures from a meta-analysis of the sensitivity of cereal yield against mean local temperature change for maize, wheat and rice, as derived from the results of 69 published studies from 1993 to 2006 at multiple simulation sites
easterling et al. 2007 present figures from a meta-analysis of the sensitivity of cereal yield against mean local temperature change for maize, wheat and rice, as derived from the results of 69 published studies from 1993 to 2006 at multiple simulation sites. they caution: "the results of such simulations are generally highly uncertain due to many factors, including large discrepancies in gcm predictions of regional precipitation change, poor representation of impacts of extreme events and the assumed strength of co<s112>2 fertilisation." they conclude: "nevertheless, these summaries indicate that in midto high-latitude regions, moderate to medium local increases in temperature (1degc to 3degc), across a range of co<s112>2 concentrations and rainfall changes, can have small beneficial impacts on the main cereal crops." none of these reports were able to use the results of the 4th assessment climate models, which had not been released at the time of the easterling publication. our research is based on these newer climate modeling results, limited to two of the sets of gcm results available.
What are providing a detailed picture of the Mars water cycle from global to regional scale?
the present-day water cycle following the mapping of water vapor by the viking mars atmospheric water detector (mawd) in the late 1970s jakosky and farmer, 1982 ), infrared spectrometer data from the mars global surveyor, mars express, and mars reconnaissance orbiter missions are providing a detailed picture of the mars water cycle from global to regional scale
What is illustrated in Fig. 3 a?
annual zonal-mean evolution of the water cycle, as simulated by the lmd/gcm, is illustrated in fig. 3 a, with contours corresponding to the precipitable water vapor column in micrometers
we will particularly focus on the onset of the mid-latitude precipitation activity during late northern fall ls 240-270  ). 4.1. the present-day water cycle following the mapping of water vapor by the viking mars atmospheric water detector (mawd) in the late 1970s jakosky and farmer, 1982 ), infrared spectrometer data from the mars global surveyor, mars express, and mars reconnaissance orbiter missions are providing a detailed picture of the mars water cycle from global to regional scale. annual zonal-mean evolution of the water cycle, as simulated by the lmd/gcm, is illustrated in fig. 3 a, with contours corresponding to the precipitable water vapor column in micrometers (pr.
What is the reason behind patterns of germination, survival, and/or fecundity?
any long-term shift in community composition could be due to changes in patterns of germination, survival, and/or fecundity
Why was the analyses conducted using 25 years of long term data?
to determine the relative importance of each of these critical life history stages
any long-term shift in community composition could be due to changes in patterns of germination, survival, and/or fecundity. to determine the relative importance of each of these critical life history stages, we performed analyses using 25 years of long-term data on the ratio of seeds germinating in the current year divided by seeds produced the previous year, the proportion of seedlings that survived to reproduce, and per capita seed production (morris, 1959; varley gradwell, 1970). we calculated ' k ,' the logarithmic or proportional change in abundance, for each life stage, then an overall k for the entire year from germination to germination,
Which two general forms of discourse analysis does Fairclough propose?
fairclough (2003) proposes two general forms of discourse analysis: 'foucauldian', which pays little attention to linguistic features of the text and engages instead with social theoretical issues, and 'critical discourse analysis', which advances a close linguistic analysis of texts
Would you say that discourse analysis is normally subject to only a single interpretation?
similarly, discourse analysis is subject to a diverse array of interpretations (hajer, 1995
The method adopted here draws upon both these ideas but avoids which two aspects?
but avoids the narrowness of strict linguistic analysis and the broad generalisations that characterise ideological analysis (macdonald, 2003
similarly, discourse analysis is subject to a diverse array of interpretations (hajer, 1995). different approaches are seen as fitting different purposes, with none claiming general veracity, and presuppose varying views of language and the important questions to ask of a text (gee, 1999). fairclough (2003) proposes two general forms of discourse analysis: 'foucauldian', which pays little attention to linguistic features of the text and engages instead with social theoretical issues, and 'critical discourse analysis', which advances a close linguistic analysis of texts. 7 in drawing heavily upon dryzek's approach to environmental discourses (2005), the method adopted here draws upon both these ideas but avoids the narrowness of strict linguistic analysis and the broad generalisations that characterise ideological analysis (macdonald, 2003). following on from the stated understanding of discourse, discourse analysis is taken to mean an attempt to identify the key components of different discourses, e.g. the language used, the common assumptions, or others.
What do energy efficiency programs seen to reduce?
energy efficiency programs seek to reduce the amount of electricity used by industry and consumers
What forms of electricity have been promoted and incentivised?
renewable forms of electricity such as solar and wind have been promoted through financial incentives as well as mandatory regulations
What is one approach to address climate change?
an approach to address climate change is likely to be comprised of a large number of individual policies at all levels of government, making it important to understand why these policies are adopted (victor, house, joy, 2005
while these two conclusions are not mutually exclusive, as discussed above, they signify a need for additional research. in particular, with the growing trend of state-led climate change policy implementation, it is increasingly important to understand when and why states choose to adopt climate change policies. indeed, states have pursued a wide variety of policies that have implications for climate change (rabe, 2004). jaffe, newell, and stavins (1999) and fischer and newell (2003) discuss the displacement of co2 by various energy policies. energy efficiency programs seek to reduce the amount of electricity used by industry and consumers. renewable forms of electricity such as solar and wind have been promoted through financial incentives as well as mandatory regulations. alternative transportation fuels, as well as reductions in automotive traffic, have been promoted through financial incentives and mandatory regulations. programs exist that promote reforestation, carbon accounting, no-till agriculture, methane recovery, waste to energy programs, and mandatory caps on carbon emissions from utilities. this wide variety of programs represents a unique trend in climate change policy. because of the varied approaches for addressing climate change policy, and because of interconnection with other salient policies, climate change policy is frequently a positive externality of other policy initiatives. for example, no-till agriculture may primarily address soil erosion but may have the effect of sequestering carbon. high occupancy vehicle lanes may primarily address traffic but may also improve air quality and reduce carbon emissions. of the policies that address climate change, relatively few of these policies directly address carbon emissions. nevertheless, an approach to address climate change is likely to be comprised of a large number of individual policies at all levels of government, making it important to understand why these policies are adopted (victor, house, joy, 2005).
What irreversibly changes the climate system from its conventional representation in DICE to a new regime with altered dynamics?
a tipping point irreversibly changes the climate system from its conventional representation in dice to a new regime with altered dynamics
What determines future CO2 stock, thereby thereby affecting future temperatures and the probability of a tipping point occurring?
emission decisions determine the future co2 stock, thereby affecting future temperatures and the probability that a tipping point occurs
What three sorts of consequences of a regime switch are endogenous, since they depend on the policies chosen before and after the tipping point occurs?
the decision-maker anticipates how he would choose emissions and consumption in the post-threshold world. the timing, probability, and welfare consequences of a regime switch are endogenous because they depend on the policies chosen before and after the threshold occurs
a tipping point irreversibly changes the climate system from its conventional representation in dice to a new regime with altered dynamics. the tipping point occurs upon crossing some unknown temperature threshold. emission decisions determine the future co2 stock, thereby affecting future temperatures and the probability that a tipping point occurs. the decision-maker anticipates how he would choose emissions and consumption in the post-threshold world. the timing, probability, and welfare consequences of a regime switch are endogenous because they depend on the policies chosen before and after the threshold occurs. to model tipping points, we specialize the recursive structure from section i to
Could the climate changes be a reason for the international tensions?
in this article we have engaged in a critical assessment of the neo-malthusian claim that climatic changes can be an important source of international tension
It is probably that in future the principal reason for award be water needs?
hence we have studied, ex post, international water allocation problems and institutions in the syr darya and, ex ante, whether climatic changes are likely to make existing international tensions worse in future
What is the biggest concern obout countries relacion nowadays?
the biggest concern in this respect is kyrgyz- uzbek relations, which could deteriorate
in this article we have engaged in a critical assessment of the neo-malthusian claim that climatic changes can be an important source of international tensions, in the extreme even militarized interstate disputes. the most likely scenarios are international disputes over transboundary waters. existing event datasets on international river basin conflict and cooperation indicate that international disputes over water issues are quite common. but none of these disputes has thus far escalated into a militarized interstate dispute in a form that would, according to common definitions, qualify as a war. nonetheless, many observers expect that the outbreak of future militarized interstate disputes remains a strong possibility. the strongest 'candidates' in this respect are international catchments shared by poorer, less democratic, and politically less stable countries, governed by weak international water management institutions and exposed to severe climatic changes. since the syr darya corresponds quite well to these characteristics, it is a critical test case. if the neo-malthusian specter of militarized interstate disputes over water is empirically relevant, we should see signs of it in the syr darya. hence we have studied, ex post, international water allocation problems and institutions in the syr darya and, ex ante, whether climatic changes are likely to make existing international tensions worse in future. based on hydrological data and other information, we have found that the currently existing international water management institution in the syr darya has failed. using a coupled climate, land-ice, and rainfall-runoff model for the syr darya, we have then examined whether, in the absence of an effective water allocation mechanism in this international catchment, climate change is likely to make existing international tensions worse. the biggest concern in this respect is kyrgyz- uzbek relations, which could deteriorate further because the uzbek population and agriculture in the syr darya catchment are particularly vulnerable to climate change-induced shifts in runoff. we conclude, however, that such shifts are likely to occur only in the medium to long term. this leaves some time for the riparian countries to set up an effective international framework for water allocation and prevention of climate changeinduced geohazards. by implication, our findings suggest that a climate change-induced militarized interstate dispute over water resources in central asia is unlikely.
What kind of actions and treatments are included in the a strategy to resist climate change?
promote resistance to climate change --this strategy includes actions and treatments that enhance the ability of species, ecosystems, or environments (including social) to resist forces of climate change and that maintain values and ecosystem services in their present or desired rates and conditions (box 18
Are there situations in which resisting the effects of climate is appropriate?
however, situations exist in which resisting the effects of climate is appropriate. for example, where steep slopes have been altered by road construction, resisting erosion and landslides is always an objective, especially if increased flooding accompanies climate change, and not inconsistent with a dynamic view. resisting change is often appropriate for situations and resources associated with high social or ecological value that are vulnerable to direct or indirect effects of climate change
Is it important to move beyond static solutions?
this may seem counter to working with change, focusing on dynamics, and moving beyond static solutions
promote resistance to climate change --this strategy includes actions and treatments that enhance the ability of species, ecosystems, or environments (including social) to resist forces of climate change and that maintain values and ecosystem services in their present or desired rates and conditions (box 18). this may seem counter to working with change, focusing on dynamics, and moving beyond static solutions. however, situations exist in which resisting the effects of climate is appropriate. for example, where steep slopes have been altered by road construction, resisting erosion and landslides is always an objective, especially if increased flooding accompanies climate change, and not inconsistent with a dynamic view. resisting change is often appropriate for situations and resources associated with high social or ecological value that are vulnerable to direct or indirect effects of climate change.
Expansion of IPCC ?
intergovernmental panel on climate change
What are the conclusion of IPCC ?
the ipcc has also concluded that there have very likely been increases in annual precipitation, heavy precipitation events, cloud cover and extreme high temperatures over at least the last 50 years
Which country had minimum & maximum temperatures detected ?
canada
climate scenarios, as summarized by the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc), project that mean global temperatures are likely to increase by 1.4-5.8degc over the present century. as a high-latitude country, warming in canada would likely be more pronounced (figure 1). temperature increases would vary across the country, with certain regions including the north and the southern and central prairies warming more than others. warming is also projected to vary on a seasonal basis, being greatest in winter, and on a daily basis, with nights warming more than days. changes in precipitation patterns, changes in climate variability, and shifts in the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events would accompany warming. since these changes would not be felt uniformly across the country, impacts would vary regionally. there is growing evidence that climate change is already occurring. at the global scale, average surface temperatures rose about 0.6degc over the 20thcentury. warming of minimum and maximum temperatures has also been detected in canada. correspondingly, there have been decreases in sea-ice cover, shifts in species distributions and an increase in global average sea level. the ipcc has also concluded that there have very likely been increases in annual precipitation, heavy precipitation events, cloud cover and extreme high temperatures over at least the last 50 years.
escribe the greenhouse gas emission effect?
climate modeling studies suggest that future heat waves in areas of north america and europe are likely to become more intense, more frequent, and longer lasting over 21st century as a result of increased greenhouse gas emissions meehl and tebaldi, 2004 
Describe heat-related mortality
generating estimates of these possible human health consequences is inherently difficult and involves numerous uncertainties. a variety of methods now exist for assessing potential future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality. while each of these approaches has limitations, collectively they provide information regarding the impacts and can give insight into possible responses. all of these methods are based on a growing body of empirical knowledge regarding the acute effects of extreme heat events on premature mortality in different cities around the world
the potential impacts of climate variability and change on heat-related mortality are the subject of growing scientific interest and public concern. climate modeling studies suggest that future heat waves in areas of north america and europe are likely to become more intense, more frequent, and longer lasting over 21st century as a result of increased greenhouse gas emissions meehl and tebaldi, 2004 ). generating estimates of these possible human health consequences is inherently difficult and involves numerous uncertainties. a variety of methods now exist for assessing potential future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality. while each of these approaches has limitations, collectively they provide information regarding the impacts and can give insight into possible responses. all of these methods are based on a growing body of empirical knowledge regarding the acute effects of extreme heat events on premature mortality in different cities around the world. the methods differ in the ways that adaptation trends are incorporated, with the earliest developed efforts either ignoring adaptation or using analogue cities to account for this issue, and more recent methods taking fuller account of the factors underlying trends in adaptation. while limitations are still present, new methods have the potential to better represent the heat and mortality
What is the reason for premature aging of leaves?
the premature leaf senescence caused by water stress is associated with a reduction in nutrient resorption
What can affect the resorption of nutrients?
milla et al. (2005) recognized some physiological traits associated with drought that may potentially affect nutrient resorption: accumulation of proline and other amino acids (feller fischer, 1994), reduction in phloem loading due to the production of abscisic acid (pugnaire chapin, 1992), or possible disruption in the flow of water caused by xylem cavitation (silla escudero, 2004
What changes do reports include?
reports include increased thickness of the cell walls of the upper epidermis and pectinaceous projections in the cell walls of the mesophyll (paakkonen et al. 1998) but also whorls in membranes, condensation of chromatin in the nuclear matrix and the nucleolus, swelling of chloroplasts, accumulation of plastoglobuli in the stroma, and apparent changes in the membrane
the premature leaf senescence caused by water stress is associated with a reduction in nutrient resorption (killingbeck, 2004). milla et al. (2005) recognized some physiological traits associated with drought that may potentially affect nutrient resorption: accumulation of proline and other amino acids (feller fischer, 1994), reduction in phloem loading due to the production of abscisic acid (pugnaire chapin, 1992), or possible disruption in the flow of water caused by xylem cavitation (silla escudero, 2004). the effects of water stress are microscopically visible at the subcellular level (gunthardtgoergbut vollenweider, 2007). reports include increased thickness of the cell walls of the upper epidermis and pectinaceous projections in the cell walls of the mesophyll (paakkonen et al. 1998) but also whorls in membranes, condensation of chromatin in the nuclear matrix and the nucleolus, swelling of chloroplasts, accumulation of plastoglobuli in the stroma, and apparent changes in the membrane
How long were the seedlings grown before transplant?
grown for 3-4 years in a nursery and mostly 20-30 cm high
How many different points were the seedlings placed?
we planted one seedling at each of the 12 points resulting from the combination of three distances
Where were the 60 krummholz individuals located?
the 60 krummholz individuals were located above the timberline and below the tree limit, except for five of them, and between
we performed a field experiment to test the influence of potential 'nurse' krummholz on seedling survival and height increase at the serrat de capifonts (site code fu; see fig. 1 and table 1); a north-facing and relatively undisturbed tree line ecotone. the field experiment consisted of transplanting seedlings (grown for 3-4 years in a nursery and mostly 20-30 cm high) at various positions with respect to 60 krummholz individuals. around each krummholz, we planted one seedling at each of the 12 points resulting from the combination of three distances (0.25, 0.5 and 1 m) and four orientations looking upwards (leeward, windward, westward, hereafter right, and eastward, hereafter left) from the krummholz crown. the 60 krummholz individuals were located above the timberline and below the tree limit, except for five of them, and between
According to the model, what were the net economic losses in the Mumbai Metropolitan Region?
the losses and gains partly compensate, but the aggregated va loss (without housing sector) for the mumbai metropolitan region is still $395 million, for $1.5 billion of direct losses. this reduction corresponds to 1.4% of annual regional gdp; a very significant economic impact
What is one obstacle to producing a more detailed model of the 2005 flood's economic impact on the region?
given that we have no empirical information on the economic impact of the july 2005 floods, we are not able to validate these results in a detailed manner. a further study on job losses would be a good indicator of welfare losses; unfortunately, consistent data including formal and informal employment in mumbai could not be found
Which sector in particular was affected by the 2005 flood?
indeed, houses and residential buildings produce a housing service that plays a major role in ensuring local well-being. the decrease in housing services because of damaged houses and buildings has, therefore, to be taken into account
mumbai economy. this simulation is reproduced in fig. 4 which displays the change in value added (va) in the 25 sectors x -axis) as a function of time in months y -axis). the simulation shows both the reduction in va in the months following the event, and the va increase in construction sector (sector #14) due to reconstruction needs. the losses and gains partly compensate, but the aggregated va loss (without housing sector) for the mumbai metropolitan region is still $395 million, for $1.5 billion of direct losses. this reduction corresponds to 1.4% of annual regional gdp; a very significant economic impact. given that we have no empirical information on the economic impact of the july 2005 floods, we are not able to validate these results in a detailed manner. a further study on job losses would be a good indicator of welfare losses; unfortunately, consistent data including formal and informal employment in mumbai could not be found. the model also provides an assessment of the "production loss" in the housing sector. indeed, houses and residential buildings produce a housing service that plays a major role in ensuring local well-being. the decrease in housing services because of damaged houses and buildings has, therefore, to be taken into account. the model, because it reproduces the reconstruction period and duration, can assess the total
What are the future seasonal averages likely to be?
future seasonal averages may be warmer and there are likely to be more extreme temperatures and greater variability within seasons, which could affect health
What numbers are likely to diminish as a result of warmer winters?
although numbers of winter deaths could diminish as a result of warmer winters, it is likely that excess summer deaths will increase as summers become hotter, and the population most likely to be affected is older age groups
What will buildings have to withstand?
buildings will have to withstand increasingly frequent extreme events such as storms, strong winds and flooding
future seasonal averages may be warmer and there are likely to be more extreme temperatures and greater variability within seasons, which could affect health. although numbers of winter deaths could diminish as a result of warmer winters, it is likely that excess summer deaths will increase as summers become hotter, and the population most likely to be affected is older age groups. 68 wet buildings are harder to heat. buildings will have to withstand increasingly frequent extreme events such as storms, strong winds and flooding. strong winds affect building heat loss and draughts, with consequences for indoor temperatures and comfort. the predicted warmer, wetter winters would present less of a threat in terms of low temperatures and research to date has not found a relationship between rainfall and excess winter mortality. however, damp reduces the insulating effect of building fabric so, where buildings already have poor insulating qualities, these will be reduced further still by increased rainfall and become more frequently difficult to heat comfortably and affordably. the likelihood of condensation occurrence may also be increased, with possible implications for mould growth and consequent health problems. extreme summer temperatures can be exacerbated by certain building and urban environment characteristics, as found in paris in 2003, 65 with disastrous results. there are lessons to be learned from this research, in particular for top floor urban apartments. more free ebooks http://fast-file.blogspot.com
Tell us about equal economic opportunities for men and women? Â 
here is some evidence that in countries where more equal economic opportunities exist for men and women, women tend to adopt themselves a lifestyle that is similar to the average current male lifestyle
Explain the claim of America Kunst and Cruz? Â 
n the us, kunst and kruz state that, women now belong to the most intensive users of highly inefficient suvs (42). so we can hypothesise that women's specific emissions are likely to rise. even though there is still scant data available, it is suggested that higher education levels may increase men and women's mitigative capacity
Describe Sound Research? Â 
in this area, there is a need to carry out methodologically sound research to document the different energy consumption patterns of both men and women since this is now greatly lacking. raising both women's (and men's) consciousness about the current lifestyle and its environmental impacts is imperative, to ensure that increased access to economic resources for both men and women does not in fact lead to huge environmental costs and irretrievable natural disasters
there is some evidence that in countries where more equal economic opportunities exist for men and women, women tend to adopt themselves a lifestyle that is similar to the average current male lifestyle. in the us, kunst and kruz state that, women now belong to the most intensive users of highly inefficient suvs (42). so we can hypothesise that women's specific emissions are likely to rise. even though there is still scant data available, it is suggested that higher education levels may increase men and women's mitigative capacity. in this area, there is a need to carry out methodologically sound research to document the different energy consumption patterns of both men and women since this is now greatly lacking. raising both women's (and men's) consciousness about the current lifestyle and its environmental impacts is imperative, to ensure that increased access to economic resources for both men and women does not in fact lead to huge environmental costs and irretrievable natural disasters.
How did Shields fund the program?
shields was supported in part by a grant from noaa/gfdl
Whom operates The National Center for Atmospheric Research?
the national center for atmospheric research is operated by the university corporation for atmospheric research
Who are being thanked for their useful discussions and suggestions?
we would also like to thank brian soden, isaac held, ping zhu, and ron colman for useful discussions and two anonymous reviewers for many helpful suggestions
gcms) and then use observations of temperature, water vapor, and surface albedo changes to estimate feedbacks for the current climate. however, care must be taken, since clear-sky fluxes are calculated differently in models and satellite datasets (zhang et al. 1994a). comparison with observational results would be a useful way of extending this computationally efficient technique for model intercomparison to a more general applicability. acknowledgments. we thank william collins for the use of his offline radiative transfer code. we would also like to thank brian soden, isaac held, ping zhu, and ron colman for useful discussions and two anonymous reviewers for many helpful suggestions. ncar's advanced study program provided support for this research. the national center for atmospheric research is operated by the university corporation for atmospheric research under sponsorship of the national science foundation and other agencies. kiehl acknowledges support from the department of energy office of science climate change prediction program. shields was supported in part by a grant from noaa/gfdl.
What do the surveys include data on?
these surveys include data on ownership (foreign or domestic), sales (export or domestic), inputs, and outputs, as well as objective aspects of the investment climate
What should be noted of the countries?
note that the countries are all major exporters of garments and other labor-intensive manufactures, so that they face similar international market conditions. it is natural then to inquire why their performances have been so diverse
In which countries have random surveys of establishment been done?
we have collaborated with in-country partners on large, random surveys of establishments in bangladesh (1,001), brazil (1,642), china (1,500), honduras (215), india (1,900), nicaragua (394), pakistan (965), and peru (576
our contribution is to go down to the firm level to collect data on how institutional and policy weaknesses actually affect firms. we have collaborated with in-country partners on large, random surveys of establishments in bangladesh (1,001), brazil (1,642), china (1,500), honduras (215), india (1,900), nicaragua (394), pakistan (965), and peru (576). in large countries such as brazil, china, and india, we cover a significant number of cities. these surveys include data on ownership (foreign or domestic), sales (export or domestic), inputs, and outputs, as well as objective aspects of the investment climate. we describe these in more detail below, but in general we are interested in aspects of the environment such as how long it takes to get goods through customs, how long it takes to get a phone line, or how frequent and disruptive are power outages. we developed the questionnaire through pilot testing and with input from firms about the key bottlenecks that they face. note that the countries are all major exporters of garments and other labor-intensive manufactures, so that they face similar international market conditions. it is natural then to inquire why their performances have been so diverse.
Who is mostly at risk to feel the effects of climate change?
eff ects of climate change on health will aff ect most populations in the next decades and put the lives and wellbeing of billions of people at increased risk
Which countries will experience a rise in temperature?
rises will be greater at higher latitudes, with medium-risk scenarios predicting 2-3degc rises by 2090 and 4-5degc rises in northern canada, greenland, and siberia
What is the effect of fossil fuels on today's society?
while we must resolve the key issue of reliance on fossil fuels, we should acknowledge their contribution to huge improvements in global health and development over the past 100 years. in the industrialised world and richer parts of the developing world, fossil fuel energy has contributed to a doubled longevity, dramatically
eff ects of climate change on health will aff ect most populations in the next decades and put the lives and wellbeing of billions of people at increased risk. during this century, earth's average surface temperature rises are likely to exceed the safe threshold of 2degc above preindustrial average temperature. rises will be greater at higher latitudes, with medium-risk scenarios predicting 2-3degc rises by 2090 and 4-5degc rises in northern canada, greenland, and siberia. in this report, we have outlined the major threats--both direct and indirect--to global health from climate change through changing patterns of disease, water and food insecurity, vulnerable shelter and human settlements, extreme climatic events, and population growth and migration. although vector-borne diseases will expand their reach and death tolls, especially among elderly people, will increase because of heatwaves, the indirect eff ects of climate change on water, food security, and extreme climatic events are likely to have the biggest eff ect on global health. a new advocacy and public health movement is needed urgently to bring together governments, international agencies, non-governmental organisations (ngos), communities, and academics from all disciplines to adapt to the eff ects of climate change on health. any adaptation should sit alongside the need for primary mitigation: reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, and the need to increase carbon biosequestration through reforestation and improved agricultural practices. the recognition by governments and electorates that climate change has enormous health implications should assist the advocacy and political change needed to tackle both mitigation and adaptation. management of the health eff ects of climate change will require inputs from all sectors of government and civil society, collaboration between many academic disciplines, and new ways of international cooperation that have hitherto eluded us. involvement of local communities in monitoring, discussing, advocating, and assisting with the process of adaptation will be crucial. an integrated and multidisciplinary approach to reduce the adverse health eff ects of climate change requires at least three levels of action. first, policies must be adopted to reduce carbon emissions and to increase carbon biosequestration, and thereby slow down global warming and eventually stabilise temperatures. second, action should be taken on the events linking climate change to disease. third, appropriate public health systems should be put into place to deal with adverse outcomes. while we must resolve the key issue of reliance on fossil fuels, we should acknowledge their contribution to huge improvements in global health and development over the past 100 years. in the industrialised world and richer parts of the developing world, fossil fuel energy has contributed to a doubled longevity, dramatically
How are atmospheric rivers different to tropical cyclones?
in contrast to tropical cyclones, atmospheric rivers are distinctively different events. they are narrow corridors of concentrated moisture in atmosphere
Where do they originate?
they usually originate in tropical oceans and move pole-ward. figure 3 shows examples of correctly classified land falling atmospheric rivers that occur on the western pacific ocean and north atlantic ocean
What are the two main factors leading to mis-classification of atmospheric rivers?
firstly, presence of weak atmospheric river systems. for instance, the left column of figure 4 shows comparatively weak atmospheric rivers. the water vapor distribution clearly show a band of concentrated moisture cross mid-latitude ocean, but the signal is much weaker comparing to figure 3. thus, deep cnn does not predict them correctly. secondly, the presence of other climate event may also affect deep cnn representation of atmospheric rivers. in reality, the location and shape of atmospheric river are affected by jet streams and extratropical cyclones. for example, figure 4 right column shows rotating systems (likely extra-tropical cyclone) adjacent to the atmospheric river
in contrast to tropical cyclones, atmospheric rivers are distinctively different events. they are narrow corridors of concentrated moisture in atmosphere. they usually originate in tropical oceans and move pole-ward. figure 3 shows examples of correctly classified land falling atmospheric rivers that occur on the western pacific ocean and north atlantic ocean. the characteristics of narrow water vapor corridor is well defined and clearly observable in these images. figure 4 are examples of mis-classified atmospheric rivers. upon further investigation, we believe there are two main factors leading to mis-classification. firstly, presence of weak atmospheric river systems. for instance, the left column of figure 4 shows comparatively weak atmospheric rivers. the water vapor distribution clearly show a band of concentrated moisture cross mid-latitude ocean, but the signal is much weaker comparing to figure 3. thus, deep cnn does not predict them correctly. secondly, the presence of other climate event may also affect deep cnn representation of atmospheric rivers. in reality, the location and shape of atmospheric river are affected by jet streams and extratropical cyclones. for example, figure 4 right column shows rotating systems (likely extra-tropical cyclone) adjacent to the atmospheric river. this phenomenon presents challenge for deep cnn on representing atmospheric river. table 6: confusion matrix for atmospheric river classification label ar label non_ar predict ar 0.93 0.107 predict non_ar 0.07 0.893
Is climate change advancing?
climate change is moving towards the top of the political agendas of some countries at least
What did the UK government's recent report conclude on the economic aspects of climate change?
for example, the recent uk government report on the economic aspects of climate change concluded that 'the scientific evidence is now overwhelming: climate change presents very serious global risks, and it demands an urgent global response' (stern, 2006
What are the likely negative consequences for species that have habitat needs and prey linked to the extent of sea ice?
the probable negative consequences for species that have habitat and prey needs linked to the extent of sea ice are relatively clear, although impacts are expected to vary regionally
climate change is moving towards the top of the political agendas of some countries at least. for example, the recent uk government report on the economic aspects of climate change concluded that 'the scientific evidence is now overwhelming: climate change presents very serious global risks, and it demands an urgent global response' (stern, 2006). what is less clear is to what extent climate change is being factored into plans for nature conservation, and this is particularly lacking in the context of the marine environment. however, despite the difficulty involved in monitoring mobile marine species, concerns for their conservation are increasingly underpinned by observed changes linked to climate fluctuations. where sufficiently long time series of data on marine mammal populations exist, and have been analysed, relationships with climate have generally been found, even in the case of depleted populations. the probable negative consequences for species that have habitat and prey needs linked to the extent of sea ice are relatively clear, although impacts are expected to vary regionally. whilst there is evidence that the long-lived and slow breeding ice-edge specialists, the bowhead whales, have been able to change their patterns of habitat use several times in the last 11,000 years, the key question is how quickly marine mammal species can adapt. this concern is accentuated by the prediction that climate change may generate short-term extremes or climate instability. leadership should also come from those international fora that deal with species conservation, and these bodies will be important for the provision of coordination and direction. the iwc, for example, has at least recognized the need to address environmental change issues, including the possible impacts of climate change. however, despite the establishment of a working group on environmental matters within its scientific committee, it has been suggested that its efforts in this regard have been inadequate. burns (2002) commented that if the commission failed to develop its environmental work then its 'ultimate legacy may be that it saved whales from extinction by commercial harvesting but failed them in their time of greatest need'. it is also of concern that in 2006 a resolution in favour of the resumption of commercial whaling was passed (albeit by a majority of one) at the annual iwc meeting. whilst the ongoing moratorium on commercial whaling was not removed (this would require three quarters of those voting to be in favour), the vote signalled a change at the commission and, a short time later, iceland awarded itself a commercial quota of fin whales and minke whales balaenoptera acutorostrata these moves towards a resumption of commercial whaling are at odds with growing concerns about the impacts of climate change on marine mammals. another convention that might be expected to provide leadership is the convention for migratory species. this body held a workshop on climate change and migratory species at its 2005 conference of parties, and seems to be
What is the legal framework of the document?
was prepared in accordance with section 515 of the treasury and general government appropriations act for fiscal year 2001 (public law 106-554) and the information quality act guidelines issued by the national aeronautics and space administration pursuant to section 515
Does this document express any regulatory policies of the United States?
this document does not express any regulatory policies of the united states or any of its agencies, or provides recommendations for regulatory action
What plan does this document belong to?
this document, part of the synthesis and assessment products described in the u.s. climate change science program (ccsp) strategic plan
this document, part of the synthesis and assessment products described in the u.s. climate change science program (ccsp) strategic plan, was prepared in accordance with section 515 of the treasury and general government appropriations act for fiscal year 2001 (public law 106-554) and the information quality act guidelines issued by the national aeronautics and space administration pursuant to section 515. the ccsp interagency committee relies on national aeronautics and space administration certifications regarding compliance with section 515 and agency guidelines as the basis for determining that this product conforms with section 515. for purposes of compliance with section 515, this ccsp synthesis and assessment product is an "interpreted product" as that term is used in national aeronautics and space administration guidelines and is classified as "highly influential". this document does not express any regulatory policies of the united states or any of its agencies, or provides recommendations for regulatory action.
What human capital?
the fourth human capital indicator used was the malaria risk (mara, 1998
This is a theoretical model?
this is a theoretical model based on available long-term climate data and shows the theoretical suitability of local climatic conditions for stable malaria transmission in an average year
What The sixth indicator?
the sixth indicator of human capital used was the prevalence of hiv/aids
the fourth human capital indicator used was the malaria risk (mara, 1998). this is a theoretical model based on available long-term climate data and shows the theoretical suitability of local climatic conditions for stable malaria transmission in an average year. it should be noted that malaria transmission can vary substantially from one year to the next, as a result of climatic conditions and malaria control activities. where the climate is suitable, malaria is very likely to be endemic, and where it is unsuitable, malaria is likely to be epidemic or absent. areas with a higher risk of malaria are hypothesized to be more vulnerable. the fifth indicator of human capital used relates to public health expenditure. country-level data from undp (2005) were used, representing the current and capital spending on health from central and local government budgets, external borrowing and grants, and social or compulsory health insurance funds, expressed as a percentage of the country's gross domestic product (gdp). the hypothesis here is that the higher the health expenditure as a proportion of gdp, the lower the vulnerability. the sixth indicator of human capital used was the prevalence of hiv/aids. country-level data from undp (2005) were used, referring to the percentage of people aged 15-49 infected with hiv. the hypothesis here is that areas with higher rates of hiv/aids are more vulnerable. hiv/aids is a major development issue facing sub-saharan africa, reducing
What are the three distinct stages of a belt press?
the operation process of a belt press can be divided into three distinct stages and zones: (a) zone of gravity drainage, (b) low-pressure zone and (c) high-pressure zone
Where is the zone of gravity drainage located?
the zone of gravity drainage is located at the entrance of the press, where the sludge is applied onto an upper screen and the free water percolates under the action of gravity through the opening pores in the screen
How do belt presses operate?
belt presses operate on a continuous mode
belt presses operate on a continuous mode. the operation process of a belt press can be divided into three distinct stages and zones: (a) zone of gravity drainage, (b) low-pressure zone and (c) high-pressure zone. the zone of gravity drainage is located at the entrance of the press, where the sludge is applied onto an upper screen and the free water percolates under the action of gravity through the opening pores in the screen. after this, the sludge is directed to the low-pressure zone, where the rest of the free water is removed and the sludge is gently compressed between the upper and lower screens. in the highrate pressure zone, which is formed by various rollers with different diameters 270 to wastewater characteristics, treatment and disposal
Which hypothesis was tested?
we tested the hypothesis that recent oceanographic changes associated with climate change in the northeast united states continental shelf ecosystem have caused a change in spatial distribution of marine fish
How was the hypothesis analyzed?
to do this, we analyzed temporal trends from 1968 to 2007 in the mean center of biomass, mean depth, mean temperature of occurrence, and area occupied in each of 36 fish stocks
Why were temporal trends in distribution compared?
temporal trends in distribution were compared to time series of both localand large-scale environmental variables, as well as estimates of survey abundance
we tested the hypothesis that recent oceanographic changes associated with climate change in the northeast united states continental shelf ecosystem have caused a change in spatial distribution of marine fish. to do this, we analyzed temporal trends from 1968 to 2007 in the mean center of biomass, mean depth, mean temperature of occurrence, and area occupied in each of 36 fish stocks. temporal trends in distribution were compared to time series of both localand large-scale environmental variables, as well as estimates of survey abundance. many stocks spanning several taxonomic groups, life-history strategies, and rates of fishing exhibited a poleward shift in their center of biomass, most with a simultaneous increase in depth, and a few with a concomitant expansion of their northern range. however, distributional changes were highly dependent on the biogeography of each species. stocks located in the southern extent of the survey area exhibited much greater poleward shifts in center of biomass and some occupied habitats at increasingly greater depths. in contrast, minimal changes in the center of biomass were observed in stocks with distributions limited to the gulf of maine, but mean depth of these stocks increased while stock size decreased. largescale temperature increase and changes in circulation, represented by the atlantic multidecadal oscillation, was the most important factor associated with shifts in the mean center of biomass. stock size was more often correlated with the total area occupied by each species. these changes in spatial distribution of fish stocks are likely to persist such that stock structure should be re-evaluated for some species. key words: atlantic multidecadal oscillation * climate change * biogeography * center of biomass * northeast united states continental shelf * distribution * area-abundance relationships
What is the ain of the review?
encouraging geographers of science to turn their research and scholarship to understanding the roles played by the ipcc, and equivalent institutional processes of climate change knowledge assessment, in the contemporary world
How many reviews are going to be published?
three biennial reviews
Is the IPCC an influence for something?
its wider impact and influence on knowledge production, public discourse and policy development
this is the first of a series of three biennial reviews of research on the subject of climate change. this review is concerned with the un intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc): its origins and mandate; its disciplinary and geographical expertise; its governance and organisational learning; consensus and its representation of uncertainty; and its wider impact and influence on knowledge production, public discourse and policy development. the research that has been conducted on the ipcc as an institution has come mostly from science and technology studies scholars and a small number critical social scientists. the ipcc's influence on the construction, mobilisation and consumption of climate change knowledge is considerable. the review therefore ends by encouraging geographers of science to turn their research and scholarship to understanding the roles played by the ipcc, and equivalent institutional processes of climate change knowledge assessment, in the contemporary world. key words climate change ipcc uncertainty consensus science governance learning 2
The initial scoping phase should consider what?
the initial scoping phase of a city-scale climate change risk assessment should be designed to consider all potential climate risks, and should ensure that city-based stakeholders are well represented
The review specifically highlights what?
the initial scoping phase of a city-scale climate change risk assessment should be designed to consider all potential climate risks, and should ensure that city-based stakeholders are well represented
What is a priority in future research?
ltow-cost climatic down-scaling applications are a priority in future research
error! reference source not found. shows that most studies that monetise impacts at city-scale are constrained to impacts whose welfare effects are felt in markets. for example, more demand for energy as a result of greater use of air-conditioning results in increased purchases of electricity, whilst rising sea-levels are projected to result in greater damage to property assets. in the case of nonmarket sectoral impacts, those in the health sector are relatively well covered in quantitative terms for temperature effects, though much less so for other potential health effects, whilst there is very limited consideration of other non-market categories. the coverage of other potential effects (both market and non-market) is very low and almost no studies cover socially contingent effects and major/catastrophic events. xfigure 2x therefore suggests that since a major difficulty remains the incomplete understanding of climate change itself, in particular the regional effects of climate change and specifically the coverage across the range of different climate change effects, ltow-cost climatic down-scaling applications are a priority in future research. this constraint is clearly exacerbated at the city-scale, where extremes may be particularly important in determining impacts at the city scale (e.g. see hallegatte et al., this volume), and where the context is further compounded by local micro-climates and particularly heat island effects. t talthough it is clear that climate change risk assessment at the city-scale is in its infancy, there is a sufficient evidence base to allow us to make some tentative suggestions for future city-scale assessments. specifically, our review highlights the following components as being likely to embody current best practice, building on an earlier outline by dawson (2007) to identify generic principles underlying urban-focussed climate risk assessment. 1. tat the outset, a city-scale assessment should be framed so as not to exclude interdependencies - including physical and financial resource flows with surrounding or wider geographical regions. similarly, intra-city scale vulnerabilities dictate that the assessment should not be undertaken at the city-scale unit, only. thus, whilst city-level administrative boundaries are useful to adopt in order to maximise coincidence with public decision-making capacities they should not be used in a dogmatic way. as with climate change risk 38 assessment practices more generally, it is also important to properly incorporate future socioeconomic changes, uncertainties therein being explored in sensitivity analysis. 2. tthe initial scoping phase of a city-scale climate change risk assessment should be designed to consider all potential climate risks, and should ensure that city-based stakeholders are well represented. such stakeholder engagement ensures validation of the scoping (and subsequent) phases. to inform subsequent prioritisation, it is likely to be valuable to undertake a qualitative or quantitative ranking of impacts, based on stakeholder elicitation and/or the use of common metrics such as monetisation. impacts should be grounded in an understanding of existing climatic vulnerabilities. co-ordination by a lead body additionally allows the pooling of resources for generic aspects of the assessment and facilitates efficient communication of research activities and outputs across the city. 3. tgiven its relatively resource-intensive nature, quantitative climate risk analysis subsequent to the scoping phase is likely to be best focussed on a small number of risks, prioritised by a previous ranking exercise. existing stakeholder engagement should then allow these analyses to be embedded in current sectoral risk assessment practices. 4. tthe evaluation of adaptation responses to climate change risks should be mainstreamed into current sectoral and institutional decision-support practices at the city scale. in this way, the inherent tension between dataand resource-intensive city-level, down-scaled, quantitative analysis, and less resource intensive, qualitative, analysis that highlights vulnerabilities and organisational capacities to respond, may be reconciled on a context-specific basis. it is likely in any case that, following the suggestion of dawson (2007), uncertainties in climate risk assessment should dictate the adoption of adaptation strategies robust to a wide range of climate sensitivities.
What happened to the expansion of capitalist agricultural production? Globalized the metabolic gap in the soil nutrient cycle
just as the expansion of capitalist agricultural production globalized the metabolic rift of the soil nutrient cycle
What was the benefit of the capitalist expansion? Drove technological development
 capitalist expansion pushed forward technological development that allowed industrial production to take place at ever-greater levels
What happened to capitalist production when mining the land to remove stored energy (past plants and animals) to supply the production machines? Capitalist production "broke the budget constraint on solar income
by mining the earth to remove stored energy (past plants and animals) to fuel machines of production, capitalist production has "broken the solar-income budget constraint, and this has thrown [society] out of ecological equilibrium with the rest of the biosphere
just as the expansion of capitalist agricultural production globalized the metabolic rift of the soil nutrient cycle, capitalist expansion pushed forward technological development that allowed industrial production to take place at ever-greater levels. previous modes of production primarily lived and operated within the "solar-income constraint," which involves using the immediate energy captured and provided by the sun. by mining the earth to remove stored energy (past plants and animals) to fuel machines of production, capitalist production has "broken the solar-income budget constraint, and this has thrown [society] out of ecological equilibrium with the rest of the biosphere."74daly warns that, as a result of these developments, natural cycles are overloaded and the "life-support services of nature are impaired" because of "too large a throughput from the human sector."75the ability to take coal and petroleum from the earth accelerated the expansion of capital, releasing large quantities of co2 into the atmosphere. this pattern, just as the rift in the soil nutrient cycle, continues, given the logic of capital. ongoing capitalist development continues to dump co2 into the atmosphere, placing greater demands upon the carbon cycle to metabolize this material. this uneven process only worsens, given the character of capital. to survive, capital must expand. it is engaged in a process of ceaseless expansion and constant motion. schumpeter asserted that "capitalism is a process, stationary capitalism would be a contradictio in adjecto ."76marx emphasized that capitalism is a dynamic economic system functioning by and for the accumulation of wealth:
Why conceptualization of loss of kelp bed resilience?
conceptualization of loss of kelp bed resilience because of fishing and associated increase in risk of catastrophic phase shift to the centrostephanus rodgersii barrens state
What the alternative basins of attraction represents?
alternative basins of attraction represent kelp bed and sea urchin barrens states and the position of the ball represents ecosystem status
What does solid arrows represent?
solid arrows represent perturbation of the kelp bed state in the form of climate-driven incursion of c. rodgersii the likelihood of catastrophic shift to sea urchin barrens depends on the size of the perturbation, which is the same in both a and b ), and the basin depth, i.e., ''resilience stability'' of the kelp-dominated state
fig. 4. conceptualization of loss of kelp bed resilience because of fishing and associated increase in risk of catastrophic phase shift to the centrostephanus rodgersii barrens state. alternative basins of attraction represent kelp bed and sea urchin barrens states and the position of the ball represents ecosystem status. to shift to barrens habitat the kelp system must be perturbed sufficiently for the ball to roll from one basin to another (dashed arrow). a prefished kelp bed with high abundance of large predatory lobsters and high resilience (indicated by basin depth). b heavily fished kelp beds with shallow 'basin' and thus lower resilience. solid arrows represent perturbation of the kelp bed state in the form of climate-driven incursion of c. rodgersii the likelihood of catastrophic shift to sea urchin barrens depends on the size of the perturbation, which is the same in both a and b ), and the basin depth, i.e., ''resilience stability'' of the kelp-dominated state.
what type of characterization they require?
they require a quantitative characterization of the problem's uncertainty as a prior input to the decision, these approaches lose value as they become increasingly sensitive to this characterization
what does the decision approach intimate?
decision approaches that maximize expected utility clearly work best under many conditions, they tend to be difficult to apply when the strategy they suggest is highly sensitive to assumptions about which future is most likely.22,93because they require a quantitative characterization of the problem's uncertainty as a prior input to the decision
what does these issues create?
these issues create incentives for analysts to focus on the parts of the problem for which the uncertainties are well characterized and ignore deep uncertainties and possible surprises that may be highly relevant to the policy question under consideration,90thereby resulting in decisions that may be insufficiently protective.10,94
although decision approaches that maximize expected utility clearly work best under many conditions, they tend to be difficult to apply when the strategy they suggest is highly sensitive to assumptions about which future is most likely.22,93because they require a quantitative characterization of the problem's uncertainty as a prior input to the decision, these approaches lose value as they become increasingly sensitive to this characterization; in offering no systematic way to choose among several 'best' strategies (each dependent on different, but all plausible, choices of priors and assumptions). these issues create incentives for analysts to focus on the parts of the problem for which the uncertainties are well characterized and ignore deep uncertainties and possible surprises that may be highly relevant to the policy question under consideration,90thereby resulting in decisions that may be insufficiently protective.10,94
What is this trend primarily caused by?
this trend is primarily caused by agricultural policies and laws promoting farming at the expense of pastoralism
What has been lost and is essential to the pastoral system?
massive loss of dry season pastures that are essential for the survival of the pastoral system
What is a key factor to avoid the aforementioned scenarios?
the key factor in avoiding both these scenarios would be better policies and laws recognizing the needs of pastoralists and generally improving the relationship between the government and rural populations
the results from the case study of the farmer-herder conflict in karbaye corroborate this conclusion. rather than being driven by exogenous pressures on the fertile land, we see this conflict as a result of several structural conditions that are likely to shape a large number of land-use conflicts across the sahel. first, there is agricultural encroachment on productive key resources for pastoralism and on livestock corridors, obstructing the necessary mobility of herders and animals. this has led to massive loss of dry season pastures that are essential for the survival of the pastoral system. this trend is primarily caused by agricultural policies and laws promoting farming at the expense of pastoralism. second, decentralization from the early 1990s caused a political vacuum that led rural actors to follow opportunistic strategies to claim ownership of land and natural resources. third, rent-seeking among government officials has undermined rural people's trust in government institutions and the willingness and interest of officials to solve conflicts. this lack of trust may have contributed to some actors taking action on their own, including using violence to lay claim to resources. when it comes to the effect of environmental variability on the onset of conflicts, we have observed two different and contrasting scenarios. first, the sahelian droughts of the 1970s and 1980s led rice farming to move down the riverbed and encroach on the dry season burgu pastures. in this sense, a drought may play a role in causing confrontations between farmers and pastoralists, increasing intercommunal tensions and, quite possibly, escalating latent conflicts to the use of violence. conversely, as indicated in figure 5, good rainfall years with generous flooding might also induce more conflicts as the zone of potential contestation is expanded to areas with less established norms of ownership and control. the key factor in avoiding both these scenarios would be better policies and laws recognizing the needs of pastoralists and generally improving the relationship between the government and rural populations.
What is the purpose of reviewing the paper ?
this paper reviews our current understanding of the effect of climate change on tropical cyclones
What are the causes for no change in tropical cyclone characteristics ?
while there are presently no discernible changes in tropical cyclone characteristics that could reasonably be ascribed to global warming, predictions suggest some increases in tropical cyclone maximum intensity in a warmer world
What are the causes for uncertainty in predictions ?
some uncertainty in these predictions is created by clear deficiencies in current climate models. if predictions of intensities are correct, however, changes should be detectable in the atlantic some time after 2050
this paper reviews our current understanding of the effect of climate change on tropical cyclones. while there are presently no discernible changes in tropical cyclone characteristics that could reasonably be ascribed to global warming, predictions suggest some increases in tropical cyclone maximum intensity in a warmer world. formation regions are unlikely to change, while little consensus has emerged regarding changes in cyclone numbers or tracks. some uncertainty in these predictions is created by clear deficiencies in current climate models. if predictions of intensities are correct, however, changes should be detectable in the atlantic some time after 2050. key words: tropical cyclones * climate change * global warming
What are some important factors of global change interacting synergistically with climate factors that are mentioned in the review?
other important factors of global change interacting synergistically with climatic factors are also mentioned, such as atmospheric co2 concentration, eutrophication, ozone or changes in land-use. topics addressed are general species distribution and populations (persistence, acclimation, genetic variability, dispersal, fragmentation, plant/animal interaction, species richness, conservation), potential response of vegetation
What is the conclusion of the review?
in conclusion, the european alps appear to have a natural inertia and thus to tolerate an increase of 1-2 k of mean air temperature as far as plant species and ecosystems are concerned in general
What effect does land use have on the buffer formed by the European Alps?
however, the impact of land-use is very likely to negate this buffer in many areas
centre alpien de phytogeographie (cap), ch-1938 champex, switzerland, e-mail: jean-paul.theurillat@cjb.ville-ge.ch 2universite de geneve, centre de botanique, cp60, ch-1292 chambesy 3swiss center for faunal cartography (cscf), terreaux 14, ch-2000, neuchatel, switzerland e-mail: antoine.guisan@cscf.unine.ch based on conclusions drawn from general climatic impact assessment in mountain regions, the review synthesizes results relevant to the european alps published mainly from 1994 onward in the fields of population genetics, ecophysiology, phenology, phytogeography, modeling, paleoecology and vegetation dynamics. other important factors of global change interacting synergistically with climatic factors are also mentioned, such as atmospheric co2 concentration, eutrophication, ozone or changes in land-use. topics addressed are general species distribution and populations (persistence, acclimation, genetic variability, dispersal, fragmentation, plant/animal interaction, species richness, conservation), potential response of vegetation (ecotonal shift - area, physiography - changes in the composition, structural changes), phenology, growth and productivity, and landscape. in conclusion, the european alps appear to have a natural inertia and thus to tolerate an increase of 1-2 k of mean air temperature as far as plant species and ecosystems are concerned in general. however, the impact of land-use is very likely to negate this buffer in many areas. for a change of the order of 3 k or more, profound changes may be expected.
What are three things that are driving the demand for livestock and livestock products to grow rapidly?
rapid growth in demand for livestock and livestock products driven by urbanization, population growth and income increases
What is the nickname of this growing demand for livestock in developing countries?
this so-called livestock revolution is largely based in developing countries (table 1
What are the two trends in demand of the livestock?
the trends in demand will be for both increased quantity, especially as incomes rise from usd 2 to 10 per day, and for increasing quality
the most significant trend in livestock production in developing countries is the rapid growth in demand for livestock and livestock products driven by urbanization, population growth and income increases. this so-called livestock revolution is largely based in developing countries (table 1). the trends in demand will be for both increased quantity, especially as incomes rise from usd 2 to 10 per day, and for increasing quality, particularly among urban consumers who purchase livestock products from supermarkets. clearly this increased demand is going to be met from somewhere, and the challenge for the cgiar is to maximize the benefits to the poor in this demand-led income opportunity. studies show that the poor are able to play a greater role in some livestock production and market chains compared with others. on the one hand, smallholders are major players in the dairy sector indeed, almost all the meat and milk in africa is produced in agro-pastoral and mixed systems, for example (de haan et al., 1997). on the other hand, industrial systems are the major actors in the rapidly growing poultry market.
Is there a particular plant type or vegetation that determines fire activity ?
different regional plant functional types and or species composition have differing controls on fire activity
True or False?  Biomass is the only factor that influenced paleofire activity.
if biomass were the only control on paleofire activity, we might expect the same climatic history to result in a contrasting pattern of burning between wetter (northern) and drier (southern) regional sequences. in reality, this explanation does not seem to apply to the north-south paleofire gradient in the western-central mediterranean in any simple way
What are two types of Mediterranean vegetation mentioned in the above paragraph?
mediterranean vegetation varies from deciduous and evergreen woodland to scrub and semi-desert
because mediterranean vegetation varies from deciduous and evergreen woodland to scrub and semi-desert, different regional plant functional types and or species composition have differing controls on fire activity. most forest ecosystems are not fuel-limited, so that fire increases during periods of dry climate (e.g. vanniere et al., 2008). in regions with more open vegetation (e.g. grassland), fire is potentially fuel-limited and likely to increase during wet climate phases (e.g. turner et al., 2008). overall, northern mediterranean sites are more forested, especially in italy. if biomass were the only control on paleofire activity, we might expect the same climatic history to result in a contrasting pattern of burning between wetter (northern) and drier (southern) regional sequences. in reality, this explanation does not seem to apply to the north-south paleofire gradient in the western-central mediterranean in any simple way. for example, even at lowland and upland southern sites (e.g. siles, carrion, 2002; gorgo basso, tinner et al., 2009; figures 3a, b and 9) the period of lowest fire activity is linked to maximum midholocene forest development. by contrast, burning appears to have been biomass-limited in eastern mediterranean sites, where
When was the Villa Julio Polibio destroyed?
the villa julio polibio, pompeii, was destroyed in ad 73 with the eruption of mount vesuvius
How did the family maintain temperature throughout the year?
it is probable that the family migrated around the house using different rooms at different times of year and day to select the optimum temperatures available in the house
How many trees were present in the garden?
the garden was well planted with six trees, including a fig, and a row of ornamental bushes against the west wall
the villa julio polibio, pompeii, was destroyed in ad 73 with the eruption of mount vesuvius. the house was built in several phases with four rows of rooms, around three courtyards: the semiroofed impluvium, the kitchen court and the garden courtyard. the ground floor rooms were very open to these courts, while the first floor rooms were more sheltered from them. the most southerly rows, right on the street, have seven small rooms around two larger double-height spaces with a stair leading up to a bank of rooms with south-facing windows onto the road. the passive solar gain here is far higher than in the rest of the house and these rooms onto the road would have been warmest in winter. the second bank is centred around an open kitchen courtyard with a central pool and a doubleheight atrium open at the apex with an impluvium, or pool room, beneath to catch the rain. this pool was on a direct axis from the street to the inner garden, which could be left open for effective cross-ventilation over the surface of the pool to encourage evaporative cooling of the adjacent spaces. there is a second floor across this bank and in summer the upper rooms would have contained much of the incoming heat gain, leaving the rooms below to remain cool. the kitchen is on the west side of the building and would have been hotter in summer than the eastern atrium. the coolest rooms in the house were ground floor rooms facing north onto the garden. the third bank includes the garden and a colonnaded walkway around it to the north, east and west. note that the main route through the house is to the east of the building and not the west. a good climatic reason for this would be that in designing it this way the walls of the courtyard rooms are never heated and in particular the very hot western sun never touches and heats up the eastern wall. plants may not have survived so well on an eastern wall as the western wall owing to the additional heat contained in the afternoon sun. the garden was well planted with six trees, including a fig, and a row of ornamental bushes against the west wall. the trees would have almost entirely shaded the courtyard, lending coolth to the house. the openness of the ground floor rooms and the high thermal mass of the thick masonry walls would keep the temperature in many of the rooms at the mean temperature between maximum and minimum external air temperature. in the very hottest times of the year the inhabitants may well have splashed water on the floors of the more open spaces to cool them and retreated into a ground floor north-facing room and closed the door or hung curtains to keep out the heat of the daytime air temperatures while they took their afternoon nap. it is probable that the family migrated around the house using different rooms at different times of year and day to select the optimum temperatures available in the house.
HOW DOES THE NEW DISCOVERY TECHNIQUE PERFORMED BY ABMs?
abms are also able to undertake a relatively new 'scenario-discovery' technique, which instead allows modellers to identify scenarios that emerge endogenously from a set of model simulations
What two dimensions of aggregation are important for the accuracy of AMIs?
one is aggregation of physical data, such as temperature changes and precipitation. the other is the aggregation of economic data. as table 2 in the appendix shows, the damage function in most poms aggregates at the world or regional level
What is the main obstacle to reducing the level of aggregation?
the main obstacle to reducing the level of aggregation is the availability of usable data. dgse models could disaggregate to a regional level or even potentially to the level of a sector within a given country--in a sense, these entities might be considered the "agents" within a typical dsge
while scenarios are usually determined exogenously and fed into the model, abms are also able to undertake a relatively new 'scenario-discovery' technique, which instead allows modellers to identify scenarios that emerge endogenously from a set of model simulations. this approach is particularly useful when the choice of scenarios is perceived to be arbitrary or subject to vested interests or values gerst et al. 2013a ). the 'scenario-discovery' method involves applying statistical and data-mining techniques to the large number of model simulations to identify interpretable combinations of model parameters that generate policy-relevant scenarios bryant and lempert 2010 ). gerst et al. 2013a apply the scenario-discovery technique within the context of an evolutionary abm of economic growth, technological progress and carbon emissions. (ii) aggregation and distributional issues two dimensions of aggregation are important for the accuracy of iams. one is aggregation of physical data, such as temperature changes and precipitation. the other is the aggregation of economic data. as table 2 in the appendix shows, the damage function in most poms aggregates at the world or regional level. the main obstacle to reducing the level of aggregation is the availability of usable data. dgse models could disaggregate to a regional level or even potentially to the level of a sector within a given country--in a sense, these entities might be considered the "agents" within a typical dsge. the flexibility of abms allows modellers to use data disaggregated at different levels and compare how simulated agent interactions at the micro-level give rise to macro-level outcomes epstein 1999 ). there are often a large number of representative firms in abms, with different technologies, balance sheets, business plans and strategies, and so on. this allows economists to characterise the distributional effects of market outcomes and policy changes for different people groups and economic sectors within countries. however, the complexity means that it is relatively difficult to construct such a model at this level of disaggregation for the entire global economy. in addition to capturing agent heterogeneity, both dsge models and abms are able to model interactions between the agents at their level of aggregation. for example, international trade is a common feature of most modern cge models already. abms tend to simulate these interactions quite explicitly and in a highly detailed manner. agents can be programmed to interact with each other (often in networks) according to prescribed behavioural decision rules. when one considers the importance of agent interactions within economic systems, aggregating households and firms into single representative agents is not plausible. as bonabeau 2002 argues "averages will not work". further, as macro-level outcomes and
Where does the GCMs credibility come from?
their credibility comes from the well-established physical basis of climate models, from the ability to simulate important aspects of the current climate, and from the ability to reproduce features of past climate changes (ipcc 2007b
How have climate researchers moved forward?
using the multimodel ensembles, along with statistical and dynamical techniques for regionalizing gcm outputs
How can the environmental health community conduct evidence-based assessments of the health impacts of climate change
there is an urgent need for the environmental health community to conduct evidence-based assessments of the health impacts of climate change by closer collaboration with climate researchers
reliable climate projections are now increasingly available for many regions of the world due to advances in climate modeling (ipcc 2007b). the gcms provide credible estimates of future climate change. their credibility comes from the well-established physical basis of climate models, from the ability to simulate important aspects of the current climate, and from the ability to reproduce features of past climate changes (ipcc 2007b). using the multimodel ensembles, along with statistical and dynamical techniques for regionalizing gcm outputs, climate researchers have moved towards representing changes in future climate with probabilities (ipcc 2007b; murphy et al. 2009). it is possible that regional climate projections for a given emissions scenario could soon become routine. there is an urgent need for the environmental health community to conduct evidence-based assessments of the health impacts of climate change by closer collaboration with climate researchers.
Will a higher building cast a larger or a smaller shadow upon the buildings around it?
the higher a building is the greater the shadow it casts on the buildings around it
Give an example of a town that already has Solar rights legislation.
solar rights legislation is being passed in cities around the world and an excellent example is that of the solar law of boulder, colorado
Which Chinese city has already proposed curbing the height of tall buildings?
shanghai's urban planning administrative bureau has proposed curbing the height of tall buildings in the city
there are real issues of solar rights with high-rise buildings that have to be addressed and agreed. the higher a building is the greater the shadow it casts on the buildings around it. 23 the shadow cast by a two-storey building is larger than the shadow of a one-storey building of identical floor plan by 2%. a building of 16 storeys casts a shadow 43% larger than a one-storey building, at noon on the winter solstice. 24 a high-rise building will cast a shadow over a huge area of a city, affecting the light and warmth and ability of the shadowed building to generate solar energy. naturally, if the building is close to the high rise it will be shadowed for most of the year and if it is distant it will be shadowed perhaps for only a period in the day; however, this could be when the solar energy is most needed. solar rights legislation is being passed in cities around the world and an excellent example is that of the solar law of boulder, colorado, 23 where legislation has been enforced to ensure that buildings do not steal the sunlight from adjacent properties. there is also a case to be made for wind rights to ensure that new buildings do not cut off the air flow around buildings that may be needed to power ventilation systems or generate electricity. in a world where power failures will become more common, the use of non-grid-connected solar or wind generation systems for, for instance, fail-safe security and fire alarms and lighting, electric garage doors, uninterruptible power supplies systems for computer networks and emergency lighting, will increase, enhancing the need to protect the solar and wind rights of buildings. in the less energysecure future we will have to rely increasingly on emerging energy generation technologies, such as wind, solar and hydrogen systems, to run our buildings for hot water, space heating and electricity. the higher up one gets, the higher the wind speed, and so on the fa c ades of high-rise buildings there will be huge potential for wind generators. there is much interesting work currently being done by dr derek taylor at the open university on how to power individual buildings using the wind. again there will be optimal levels of building surface available in relation to building volume and occupancy to be explored here and optimal wind-driven building forms will emerge and be exploited. but again we come to the problem of stealing other buildings ' energy, and if a series of wind generators is built on city buildings, and an adjacent tower block is erected in the direction of the prevailing wind, the wind energy of the first building is substantially reduced. there are also problems of generator vibration, passing through to the structure of a building, that will have to be solved in high buildings, and the necessary structural reinforcements would have to be factored into the system and running costs. there are increasingly high-profile legal issues in allowing one building to steal the sun, light, wind and sound from one or many other buildings. shanghai's urban planning administrative bureau has proposed curbing the height of tall buildings in the city. 25 over the past decade the chinese city has witnessed an extraordinary construction boom - the chinese government's plan for shanghai to replace hong kong as the financial hub of east asia is thought to be on schedule. more free ebooks http://fast-file.blogspot.com
How many wastewater plants are in the region?
one mechanized wastewater plant
How many lagoon plans are in the region?
three lagoon plants
What measures may be considered due to capacity concern?
reduced rainwater infiltration into sewers (frequent in the region) and separation of combined sewers (not common in the region
since extreme events, especially large and more frequent precipitation events, are concomitant with climate change, water and wastewater treatment plants sizes may have to be adapted to cope with a larger amount of water and larger and longer peak periods, including peaks for water demand during drought periods. currently only one mechanized wastewater plant and three lagoon plants are at capacity in the region. to address this capacity concern, various measures may be considered including reduced rainwater infiltration into sewers (frequent in the region) and separation of combined sewers (not common in the region). upstream basin system equalization for mechanized plants may be considered in order to reduce effluent qualitydeteriorationduetostormevents.managementofplantturbidityfluctuations (frequently reported in the region, reported as hard to manage, and expected to
Apart from tenure issues which other issues have not received much attention in handling climate issues in African continent?
institutional and cultural barriers at the local level institutional barriers, other than the tenure issues mentioned earlier, have similarly not received much attention
Explain by example how Institutional and social-cultural barriers play a role in blocking access for some groups?
for instance women continue to experience water insecurities as they lack money to pay bribes and the social standing to make claims to the water
institutional and cultural barriers at the local level institutional barriers, other than the tenure issues mentioned earlier, have similarly not received much attention.15,29 in a recent briefing paper, ludi et al.2 list three ways in which institutional barriers were found to prevent sustainable adaptation based on evidence from an accra project (africa climate change resilience alliance: 2010 -2011) in uganda, ethiopia and mozambique. these included: 1) elite capture of some institutions and corruption; 2) poor survival of institutions without social roots  e.g. a savings group that did not conform to existing norms; and 3) the lack of attention to the institutional requirements of new technological interventions. for example, the authors mention how improvement of water infrastructure for irrigation as an adaptive strategy does not necessarily guarantee better access to water for all members of the community. institutional and social-cultural barriers play a role in blocking access for some groups; for instance women continue to experience water insecurities as they lack money to pay bribes and the social standing to make claims to the water.2 institutions and norms that restrict equitable access to resources can create and sustain social exclusion and serve as a barrier to enhancing sustainable adaptation at the local level by maintaining structural inequities related to gender and ethnicity.29
What can reduce resources available to the government?
negative climatic conditions, via their negative effect on economic growth, can reduce resources available to the government
What caused extra conflict in Columbia?
dube vargas (2008) show that a drop in the price of coffee substantially increased the incidence and intensity of intrastate conflict in coffee-intensive areas in colombia
What correlated to the timing of land invasions in rural Brazil?
hidalgo et al. (2010) also show that land invasions by the rural poor in brazil occur immediately after adverse economic shocks
previous research has shown that reduced levels of domestic economic activity tend to create incentives for conflict.4building on this research, we posit that climate change, by reducing economic growth, affects the utility of individuals and groups to engage in civil conflict. it does so in two ways: first, negative climatic conditions, via their negative effect on economic growth, can reduce resources available to the government (e.g. by reducing tax revenue). the government thus has fewer resources to invest in people, for instance to provide better nutrition, schooling, and on-the-job training that would lead to improved living conditions. it also has fewer resources to provide for the people, for example in terms of sustaining peace through the maintenance of law and order - the latter, for instance, lowers the probability of rebel victory by increasing the cost of rebellion. second, climate-related phenomena, such as lower precipitation, higher temperature, and extreme weather events lead to lower personal income from production and also decrease the opportunity for future employment. consequently, the opportunity cost of rebellion decreases because the expected returns from peaceful employment, say farming, compared to joining criminal or insurgent groups are lower. in situations like these, when individuals expect to earn more from criminal or insurgent activity than from lawful and peaceful activity, predatory behavior becomes more likely. the latter implicates conditions in which each individual or group effort to increase its own welfare reduces the welfare of others and also increases the probability of mutual attacks (jervis snyder, 1999). the argument that poverty breeds conflict and war is supported by several empirical studies (e.g. hidalgo et al., 2010; dube vargas, 2008; hegre sambanis, 2006; collier hoeffler, 2004; miguel et al., 2004; fearon laitin, 2003). for example, collier hoeffler (2004) find that low economic growth, which is a proxy for foregone earnings, increases the risk of conflict. dube vargas (2008) show that a drop in the price of coffee substantially increased the incidence and intensity of intrastate conflict in coffee-intensive areas in colombia in 1994-2005. they attribute this result to the lowering of opportunity costs of joining a rebel movement (via depressed wages) in these areas. hidalgo et al. (2010) also show that land invasions by the rural poor in brazil occur immediately after adverse economic shocks, which in the statistical analysis are instrumented by rainfall.
Are humans able to metabolize metals?
metals, because they cannot be metabolised, remain in the organism and carry out their toxic effects
Name two organic compounds that may be corrosive, inflammable and explosive within the sewerage collection system.
many compounds are corrosive, inflammable and explosive (methanol, methyl-ethylketone, hexane, benzene, among others
What is meant by "synergistic effects"?
synergistic effects may take place (the combined effect may be higher than the sum of the individually exerted effects
in human beings, metals can produce several effects, resulting from their action on molecules, cells, tissues, organs and even the whole system. besides, the presence of a metal might restrict the absorption of other nutrients essential to the activity of the organism. metals, because they cannot be metabolised, remain in the organism and carry out their toxic effects, combining with one or more reactive groups, which may be indispensable for normal physiological functions. depending on the material involved and on the intensity of the intoxication, the effect may range from a topic skin manifestation, pulmonary membrane or digestive tract, to mutagenic, teratogenic or carcinogenic effects, and even death. it is important to emphasise that synergistic effects also need to be taken into account. in most cases, synergistic effects might be far greater than the mere sum of the individual effects. although in general metals may be poisonous to plants and animals under the low concentrations in which they may be present in domestic wastewater, no chronic toxicity problems associated with their disposal have been reported. on the other hand, the same could not be said for industrial wastewaters and the resulting sludges (in which metals are concentrated). table 2.26 summarises the main sources of contamination from some metals, together with their effects on human health. in wastewater treatment, limitations associated with metals are mainly related to the inhibition of, or toxicity to, microorganism growth and the incorporation of metals in the sludge. for a certain metal, the maximum allowable load needs to be determined, such that there are no problems with microorganism inhibition, deterioration of effluent quality and impairment to agricultural use of the sludge. the discharge of a particular industrial wastewater into the public sewerage system will have a variable impact in the wwtp, depending on the dilution factor, the content and type of pollutant, and the treatment process employed. to analyse the impact, it is interesting to perform simulations and to apply a safety factor 66 to wastewater characteristics, treatment and disposal to the calculated limits. in this way, decisions may be made regarding the acceptance of the effluents into the system, and finally at the wwtp. if the estimated loads are lower than the acceptable limits, the discharge may be accepted. conversely, if the limits are exceeded, pre-treatment may be required, or no further admissions to the public systems may be accepted. a check must be made on the system to verify whether the biological process is being inhibited, or whether the treated effluent and the sludge to be reused are outside the limits established by the environmental agency. the control must be centred on the industrial discharges, since domestic sewage may not be prevented to be discharged to the public network system. b) toxic and dangerous organic compounds like the section on metals, this text is also based on da silva et al (2001). toxic and dangerous organic compounds, even though they usually do not represent a concern in domestic sewage may be of concern in municipal wastewaters that receive industrial effluents. when wastewaters containing toxic organic compounds are disposed of in the receiving water body without adequate treatment, severe damage may occur, both to the aquatic life and to human beings, who use it as a source of water supply. most of these compounds are very slowly biodegraded, persisting in the environment for a long period. these compounds are able to penetrate the food chain and, even if they are not detectable in the receiving body, they may be present in large quantities in the higher trophic levels, owing to their bioaccumulation characteristics. another important fact is that, although some compounds do not pose serious health damages when ingested, their metabolites may be more toxic than the original products. besides, since wastewaters have a complex composition and normally contain more than one organic pollutant, synergistic effects may take place (the combined effect may be higher than the sum of the individually exerted effects). several dangerous pollutants are volatile because of their low solubility, low molecular weight and high vapour pressure. therefore, they may be transferred to the atmosphere in open units in the wwtp, such as aeration tanks, equalisation tanks and clarifiers, and also pumping stations. if adequate control means are not taken, their volatilisation represents a potential health risk to the population and workers who are frequently exposed to it. the structural integrity of the sewerage collection system is also affected, because many compounds are corrosive, inflammable and explosive (methanol, methyl-ethylketone, hexane, benzene, among others). other pollutants are adsorbed and concentrated in the biological flocs in the treatment process, and might cause inhibition to sludge digestion or generate sludge with dangerous characteristics which, if not adequately disposed of, could contaminate groundwater. in some cases, the toxic pollutants are present in such low concentrations, that are not able to inhibit the biological process, but also are very hard to be removed. wastewater characteristics 67 consequently, the treatment plant effluent may still contain these pollutants and, when discharged into the receiving body, may cause damages to the aquatic life and human beings. there are relatively few data on the behaviour of these dangerous pollutants in wwtps. the lack of knowledge of their physical, chemical and biochemical characteristics, as well as their inter-relationships in complex wastewaters, makes it extremely difficult to predict their treatability and destination during the treatment processes. more research is required for the identification of many compounds, understanding of their removal mechanisms and development of predictive models. the main sources of organic compounds are: chemical and plastic industries, mechanical products, pharmaceutical industries, pesticide formulation, casthouses and steel industries, oil industry, laundries and lumber industries. the most commonly found organic pollutants in industrial effluents are: phenol, methyl chloride, 1,1,1-trichloroethane, toluene, ethyl benzene, trichloroethylene, tetrachloroethylene, chloroform, bis-2-ethyl-hexyl phthalate, 2,4-dimethyl phenol, naphthalene, butylbenzylphthalate, acrolein, xylene, cresol, acetophenone, methyl-sobutyl-acetone, diphenylamine, aniline and ethyl acetate.
Do the models data agree or disagree?
data disagree
What do they disagree on?
on the sign of the climate response over the asian monsoon region to radiative forcing due to explosive volcanism
What can the disagreement provide?
important and useful clues toward further refinement of the next generation of climate models
the models examined here and the paleoclimate data disagree on the sign of the climate response over the asian monsoon region to radiative forcing due to explosive volcanism. well - validated proxy reconstructions of drought indicate that the observed pattern, particularly prior to the late 20th century, is an anomalously wet southeast asia and dry conditions over central asia. that csm1.4 [this study and fan et al. 2009], ccsm3 schneider et al. 2009], and giss modele oman et al. 2005] all suggest nearly opposite signed event year anomalies in these regions compared to the paleoclimate data could suggest that some gcms do not correctly capture the balance of important coupled ocean - atmosphere processes involved in the response of asian climate to radiative forcing. this disagreement, however, may provide important and useful clues toward further refinement of the next generation of climate models. acknowledgments. this work was supported by nsf grants atm 0402474 and ags 0908971. this is ldeo contribution 7403.
what is the main reason for a non-generalised use of anaerobic digestion?
toxicity has been considered one of the main reasons for a non-generalised use of anaerobic digestion, once there is a widespread understanding that anaerobic processes are not capable of tolerating toxicity
whether micro-organisms can exhibit toxins easily?
it is true that methanogenic microorganisms can be more easily inhibited by toxins, due to the relatively small fraction of substrate converted into cells and to the long generation period of these microorganisms
who suggested the control methods for toxic materials?
control methods for toxic materials were suggested by mccarty (1964
what is the acclimatisation potential of the microorganisms? principles of anaerobic digestion 693 toxicity has been considered one of the main reasons for a non-generalised use of anaerobic digestion, once there is a widespread understanding that anaerobic processes are not capable of tolerating toxicity. it is true that methanogenic microorganisms can be more easily inhibited by toxins, due to the relatively small fraction of substrate converted into cells and to the long generation period of these microorganisms. however, microorganisms usually have a certain capacity of adaptation to the inhibiting concentrations of most of the compounds, provided that the toxicity impact minimised by some design measures, such as long solids retention time and minimised residence time of toxins in the system. the following control methods for toxic materials were suggested by mccarty (1964):
What opportunities do elevational gradients present to species currently living near their upper thermal limits, if changes in precipitation are sufficiently in step with temperature?
elevational gradients present opportunities for species currently living near their upper thermal limits to track cooler temperatures upslope in warming climates
What was modelled for a range of temperature and precipitation scenarios over the next 100 years for 16 848 vertebrate species populations?
we model local population extirpation risk for a range of temperature and precipitation scenarios over the next 100 years for 16 848 vertebrate species populations
What does realistic assessment of risks urgently require?
realistic assessment of risks urgently requires improved monitoring of precipitation, better regional precipitation models and more research on the effects of changes in precipitation on montane distributions
mountains are centres of global biodiversity, endemism and threatened species. elevational gradients present opportunities for species currently living near their upper thermal limits to track cooler temperatures upslope in warming climates, but only if changes in precipitation are sufficiently in step with temperature. we model local population extirpation risk for a range of temperature and precipitation scenarios over the next 100 years for 16 848 vertebrate species populations distributed along 156 elevational gradients. average population extirpation risks due to warming alone were 5%, but increased 10-fold, on average, when changes in precipitation were also considered. under the driest scenarios (minimum predicted precipitation), local extirpation risks increased sharply (50-60%) and were especially worrisome for hydrophilic amphibians and montane latin america c. 80%). realistic assessment of risks urgently requires improved monitoring of precipitation, better regional precipitation models and more research on the effects of changes in precipitation on montane distributions. keywords amphibians and reptiles, bioclimatic models, birds, climate change, elevation, mammals, mountains, precipitation, range contraction, temperature.
What are present international negotiations based around?
present international negotiations are based around the cop at bali in december 2007 and the eu policy package discussed above
Discuss the main action focused at Bali?
at bali, the main action focused on getting the usa to declare that it would participate actively in the next phase of the process leading up to the copenhagen conference in december 2009
Please name the core issues for Copenhagen?
the core issues for copenhagen remain those which have been on the table since the un fccc was agreed in 1992: how to get a global carbon cartel in place which commits the main emitters to an aggregate programme of credible carbon emissions reductions consistent with stabilizing emissions at the 450-550 ppm concentrations
present international negotiations are based around the cop at bali in december 2007 and the eu policy package discussed above. at bali, the main action focused on getting the usa to declare that it would participate actively in the next phase of the process leading up to the copenhagen conference in december 2009. in this limited, but important, aim, it was successful. the core issues for copenhagen remain those which have been on the table since the un fccc was agreed in 1992: how to get a global carbon cartel in place which commits the main emitters to an aggregate programme of credible carbon emissions reductions consistent with stabilizing emissions at the 450-550 ppm concentrations. the challenges to this undertaking
What does the ''happy few" scenario demonstrate?
the ''happy few" scenario contains a high share of international tourism and allows for considerable growth of domestic tourism in developing countries
Is domestic tourism relevant in developing countries?
note that domestic tourism in developing countries will account for more than half of all tourism air transport
What does the ''global isolationism" scenario convey?
the ''global isolationism" scenario finally shows a much lower growth for all markets, including international travel
the distribution over the three markets and transport modes differs substantially between scenarios. fig. 8 provides an overview of trip numbers. the ''happy few" scenario contains a high share of international tourism and allows for considerable growth of domestic tourism in developing countries. note that domestic tourism in developing countries will account for more than half of all tourism air transport. differences in income and the use of energy-intense transport (air and car) remain high in this scenario. the ''proximity tourism" scenario equalises tourism even more: given the population growth in developing countries, their overall tourism mobility grows faster than in industrialised countries. this scenario depends even more on rail and coach, based on the notion that (high speed) rail offers a reasonable alternative to air over relatively short distances. the ''global isolationism" scenario finally shows a much lower growth for all markets, including international travel. all means of transport remain important, though, with car use increasing faster in developing countries (domestic) than in industrialised countries. the isolationism of these blocks means that, like industrialised countries in the past, developing countries go through all stages of development. fig. 9 shows the distribution of emissions. an important result here is that the burden of tourism (and emissions) shifts from the developed world to the developing world in all scenarios. whereas domestic tourism in developing countries had
When was the development of a methodology to obtain a parameterization of the transient NSRP rainfall model required?
following the preparation of a full set of ptrs for each rcm, the development of a methodology to obtain a parameterization of the transient nsrp rainfall model was required
What was the first stage of the process to obtain a parameterization of the transient NSRP rainfall model?
firstly, a stationary (i.e. non-transient) single site nsrp model was fitted to the observed rainfall statistics
What was the second stage of the process to obtain a parameterization of the transient NSRP rainfall model?
time series of model parameters were obtained to represent the transient climate, using an iterative fitting procedure based on that for the initial stationary fit
following the preparation of a full set of ptrs for each rcm, the development of a methodology to obtain a parameterization of the transient nsrp rainfall model was required. a two-stage process was adopted. firstly, a stationary (i.e. non-transient) single site nsrp model was fitted to the observed rainfall statistics. this involved adjusting the automatic model fitting procedure to obtain the optimal match to observed rainfall by adjusting statistic weights and parameter bounds, reducing the number of fitted parameters and validating the fitted model against observed rainfall properties. secondly time series of model parameters were obtained to represent the transient climate, using an iterative fitting procedure based on that for the initial stationary fit.
Is it possible the complete verification and validation of numerical models?
the complete verification and validation of numerical models of natural systems is impossible
The direct calibration or comparison of the HELP3 estimated recharge rates to field measurements are easy and cheap?
the direct calibration or comparison of the help3 estimated recharge rates to field measurements are exceedingly difficult and costly
in the hydrologic context, the terms validation and verification have been generally used to indicate that model predictions match observational data for the range of conditions under consideration (e.g., anderson and woessner, 1992; konikow and bredehoeft, 1992). model results can only be evaluated in relative terms, however, by confirming them against observations or other models. the complete verification and validation of numerical models of natural systems is impossible; therefore, one can only increase confidence in the results oreskes et al., 1994 ). the direct calibration or comparison of the help3 estimated recharge rates to field measurements are exceedingly difficult and costly. therefore, due to the limitations of the field estimation methods, the only reasonable way of adding confidence in the results would be by verifying them indirectly with or within the context of other models. comparing the results to other models may be difficult, however, because of differences inherent in the methods risser et al., 2005 ). the estimated recharge rates from the analysis could be incorporated into either a fully saturated groundwater model as the top boundary condition following the method by jyrkama et al. (2002), while the estimated runoff rates from the model could be used in a surface water routing model. both approaches, however, have their own limitations with
Is partizan polarization genearlly increasing or decreasing?
from 2008 to this year the partisan gap, despite being substantial at the outset, continued to increase for every item except one
Which item did polarization NOT increase on in 2008-present?
there was sufficient republican increase in belief that global warming is already occurring in 2016 that the gap (after having widened for a number of years) was back to 34 percentage points
Which item had a gap of 14 percentage points?
14 percentage points (saying most scientists agree global warming is occurring
partisan polarization is apparent for all items from 2001 to 2008, as in every case the partisan gap in responses indicating belief in and concern about global warming increased substantially, as did the correlations between party identification and these responses. from 2008 to this year the partisan gap, despite being substantial at the outset, continued to increase for every item except one. there was sufficient republican increase in belief that global warming is already occurring in 2016 that the gap (after having widened for a number of years) was back to 34 percentage points. for the other five items we see an increase in the partisan gap of anywhere from five percentage points (seeing global warming as exaggerated in the news) to 14 percentage points (saying most scientists agree global warming is occurring) during the obama era. similarly, we see increases in the correlation coefficients for all items other than the first one during the obama presidency, with the largest increase of 0.12 for believing that most scientists agree that global warming is occurring.50
why NOAA data are truncated?
noaa data are truncated at december 2007 due to later quality issues (s. montzka, pers. comm
for which network data from same 9 sites is used?
for the noaa network, we use data from the same 9 sites as montzka et al. (2011) (south pole; cape grim, australia; cape matatula, american samoa; alert, canada; and united states sites at mauna loa, hawaii; niwot ridge, colorado; wlef tower, wisconsin; and barrow, alaska
how many AGAGAE sites are used?
all 5 agage sites are used here analysis (cape grim, australia; cape matatula, american samoa; ragged point, barbados; trinidad head, united states; and mace head, ireland
both networks provide monthly average data for each of their sites, which we use here (noaa: ftp://ftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/hats/solvents/ch3ccl3/flasks/gcms/ch3ccl3_gcms_flask.txt, accessed aug 6, 2012; agage: http://agage.eas.gatech.edu/data_archive/agage/gc-md/monthly/, accessed april 4, 2012). for the noaa network, we use data from the same 9 sites as montzka et al. (2011) (south pole; cape grim, australia; cape matatula, american samoa; alert, canada; and united states sites at mauna loa, hawaii; niwot ridge, colorado; wlef tower, wisconsin; and barrow, alaska). all 5 agage sites are used here analysis (cape grim, australia; cape matatula, american samoa; ragged point, barbados; trinidad head, united states; and mace head, ireland). noaa data are truncated at december 2007 due to later quality issues (s. montzka, pers. comm.).
From a regional perspective, studies based in which regions are still lacking?
from a regional perspective, studies based in the atlantic provinces, eastern arctic, and highelevation mountainous regions are still lacking. the same applies to studies of groundwater resources across most of the country
In which areas are continued improvements required?
continued improvements are required in the understanding and modelling of hydrological processes at local to global scales, such as the role of the el nino-southern oscillation (enso) in controlling hydrological variability
Are the research needs identified within the Canada Country Study still valid?
although progress has been made over the past five years, many of the research needs identified within the canada country study with respect to the potential impacts of climate change on water resources remain valid
although progress has been made over the past five years, many of the research needs identified within the canada country study with respect to the potential impacts of climate change on water resources remain valid. for example, continued improvements are required in the understanding and modelling of hydrological processes at local to global scales, such as the role of the el nino-southern oscillation (enso) in controlling hydrological variability. from a regional perspective, studies based in the atlantic provinces, eastern arctic, and highelevation mountainous regions are still lacking. the same applies to studies of groundwater resources across most of the country, as emphasized in a recent synthesis for the canadian prairies.(20)
what does figure 7 represents:
fig. 7 the same as in fig. 5 but for mean temperature
what does table 2 represents?
table 2 list of analyzed derived indices of extremes with their abbreviation, long name, and definition acronym
what is the daily minimum temperature?
daily minimum temperature >20degc pint
fig. 7 the same as in fig. 5 but for mean temperature table 2 list of analyzed derived indices of extremes with their abbreviation, long name, and definition acronym long name definition tasx maximum mean temperature maximum of daily mean temperature txn25 no. of summer days no. of days with daily maximum temperature >25degc tnn20 no. of tropical nights no. of days with daily minimum temperature >20degc pint precipitation intensity mean precipitation amount on days >= 1 mm/d pn10 heavy precipitation days no. of days with precipitation amount >= 10 mm/d px1d maximum 1 day precipitation maximum of daily precipitation amount climatic change
What are beekeepers expected to do?
beekeepers are expected to change their transhumance habits and abandon areas that have become too dry in favour of wetter areas
What will beekeepers be tempted to do?
they will most probably be tempted to continue importing queens of other races to test their potential to adapt to new climates
What happens when honey bees imported interact with local races and ecotypes?
bringing imported honey bees into contact with local races and ecotypes facilitates a genetic admixture that may aid the survival of the species but will also tend to eradicate local ecotypes and pure races through genetic pollution
beekeepers are expected to change their transhumance habits and abandon areas that have become too dry in favour of wetter areas. they will most probably be tempted to continue importing queens of other races to test their potential to adapt to new climates. although such imports will increase the genetic diversity of honey bee populations, they will also act as vectors for the of new pathogens or of new bee haplotypes of varying usefulness, as in the past (see the africanised honey bee). bringing imported honey bees into contact with local races and ecotypes facilitates a genetic admixture that may aid the survival of the species but will also tend to eradicate local ecotypes and pure races through genetic pollution.
Why accountants and the accountancy profession can't identify the problem of climate change?
arguably accountants and the accountancy profession were reflecting a lack of sustained, fundamental societal engagement with climate change at this time. there was consequently no proactive attempt within the accountancy profession to identify with the problem of climate change and 'render it technical
What year is the climate change in Stage One?
stage one (late 1990s-2005
What ideas fit during the late 1990s and early 21st century?
more broadly the response of accountants to the issue of climate change during the late 1990s and early 21st century fits with ideas from accountancy and society literature about the close links between accountancy and wider society
more broadly the response of accountants to the issue of climate change during the late 1990s and early 21st century fits with ideas from accountancy and society literature about the close links between accountancy and wider society. arguably accountants and the accountancy profession were reflecting a lack of sustained, fundamental societal engagement with climate change at this time. there was consequently no proactive attempt within the accountancy profession to identify with the problem of climate change and 'render it technical'. indeed, on the question of how precisely to engage with climate change in stage one (late 1990s-2005) the profession remained largely silent, even if a discourse about climate change was starting to emerge. professional bodies should not be seen as always strategic: inertia, 'tactics', and bricolage are common: these short-term, piecemeal professional responses to the problem of climate change were by no means atypical. in the section below, however, we turn to consider in detail how more recently climate change has been 'made knowledgeable' in a more comprehensive and serious way by accountants.
What federal government cancelled the EnerGuide for Houses program?
canadian
Who explored in some detail the implications of different degrees of 'vertical autonomy' between local, regional and national governments on the capacity of cities to address emissions of greenhouse gases?
deangelo and harvey
What has the scholarly debate has focused on?
the vertical interactions between different levels of government as a factor shaping the capacity for local climate change governance
the nature, opportunities and constraints of type i multilevel governance for local climate policy has been a recurring theme in the debate. in some cases, researchers have highlighted a shift from the national to the local level as the central site for climate governance. for example, knuth et al.'s contribution to this volume draws attention to the various types of local and regional actors in the united states, including universities, that are attempting to fill the void left by the absence of leadership at the federal level. more commonly, the scholarly debate has focused on the vertical interactions between different levels of government as a factor shaping the capacity for local climate change governance. for example, deangelo and harvey (1998) explored in some detail the implications of different degrees of 'vertical autonomy' between local, regional and national governments on the capacity of cities to address emissions of greenhouse gases. similarly, knuth et al. (this volume) argue that 'in the type of bureaucratic control universities exert over emission-producing activities and their level of autonomy to implement emission reduction programs, universities have powers equal to or exceeding those exercised by city governments.' where different levels of government are not autonomous, vertical linkages can be enabling or constraining in terms of local climate protection. for example, granberg and elander (this volume) find that the swedish government have created an enabling context for local action, with the provision of dedicated funds. parker and rowlands' (this volume) study examines the response of local authorities when the canadian federal government cancelled the energuide for houses program which was central to local efforts to enhance energy efficiency and control ghg emissions. rather than being held hostage to the whims of 'higher' levels of government, municipalities in the waterloo region were able to join forces and develop partnerships with local utilities to continue the program. all of the contributions to this volume call attention to the prominence and importance of type ii forms of multilevel governance in local climate protection. collier (1997: 44-45) raised the importance of transnational networking as a process of policy co-ordination, facilitating the exchange of information and experiences. in this volume, granberg and elander suggest that 'networking within and across municipal borders has become commonplace in local and regional climate change governance' (see also young 2007). other papers reflect this theme, with the iclei cities for climate protection network being influential in the development of local climate change policy in mexico (romero-lankao, this volume), south africa (holgate, this volume), canada (parker and rowlands, this volume) as well as sweden (granberg and elander, this volume). however, transnational networks are not the looking back and thinking ahead 449
They evaluate what?
we evaluated uncertainties for projections of climate change
For what purpose it is used?
climate model projections of future temperature and precipitation
What is the main purpose of this process?
climate change impact assessments and adaptation efforts for agriculture
received 24 june 2008 accepted for publication 27 august 2008 published 11 september 2008 online at stacks.iop.org/erl/3/034007 estimates of climate change impacts are often characterized by large uncertainties that reflect ignorance of many physical, biological, and socio-economic processes, and which hamper efforts to anticipate and adapt to climate change. a key to reducing these uncertainties is improved understanding of the relative contributions of individual factors. we evaluated uncertainties for projections of climate change impacts on crop production for 94 crop-region combinations that account for the bulk of calories consumed by malnourished populations. specifically, we focused on the relative contributions of four factors: climate model projections of future temperature and precipitation, and the sensitivities of crops to temperature and precipitation changes. surprisingly, uncertainties related to temperature represented a greater contribution to climate change impact uncertainty than those related to precipitation for most crops and regions, and in particular the sensitivity of crop yields to temperature was a critical source of uncertainty. these findings occurred despite rainfall's important contribution to year-to-year variability in crop yields and large disagreements among global climate models over the direction of future regional rainfall changes, and reflect the large magnitude of future warming relative to historical variability. we conclude that progress in understanding crop responses to temperature and the magnitude of regional temperature changes are two of the most important needs for climate change impact assessments and adaptation efforts for agriculture.
What is the future consequences of climate change in the greater Himalayan region?
this policy summary looks at reported and possible, future consequences of climate change in the greater himalayan region. the main emphasis is on responses in high mountain cryogenic phenomena such as glaciers, permafrost, and avalanches; the implications for water supply, ecosystems, and hazards; and how these threaten regional populations
Which mountain contains the most extensive and rugged high altitude areas on Earth?
the greater himalayan region is taken to include the inner and south asian mountains and high plateaux. it contains the most extensive and rugged high altitude areas on earth
What is the term GLOFs refers to?
ome major hazards, from debris fl ows to glacial lake outburst fl oods (glofs), are becoming more frequent and severe (beniston 2003
this policy summary looks at reported and possible, future consequences of climate change in the greater himalayan region. the main emphasis is on responses in high mountain cryogenic phenomena such as glaciers, permafrost, and avalanches; the implications for water supply, ecosystems, and hazards; and how these threaten regional populations. the assessment points to a serious need to improve relevant knowledge in the region concerning key policy areas and strategies to improve the adaptive capacities of communities at risk. the greater himalayan region is taken to include the inner and south asian mountains and high plateaux. it contains the most extensive and rugged high altitude areas on earth, and the largest areas covered by glaciers and permafrost outside high latitudes. the ecosystems and human cultures in this region are exceptionally diverse. global climate change is predicted to lead to major shifts in the strength and timing of the main climate systems affecting the region: the asian monsoon, inner asian high pressure systems, and westerlies. moreover, climate change is expected to intensify in mountain areas, especially high relief, sub-tropical areas. already of major concern is the rapid reduction of glaciers in much of the region. this, in itself, is signi fi cant and has implications for regional water resources, as well as being an indicator of the scale of climate change. some major hazards, from debris fl ows to glacial lake outburst fl oods (glofs), are becoming more frequent and severe (beniston 2003). in fact, all aspects of the himalayan cryosphere are affected by climate change. they include vast areas of permafrost and areas subject to snow avalanches or freeze-thaw and are affected by the changing balance between snow and rainfall. complexities arise, especially from interactions among different cold climate elements. the most rapid and varied interactions occur through the vertical 'cascade' of moisture and sediment between different topoclimates. large and rapid downslope, down-glacier, or downstream cascades also exaggerate the scale and dif fi culty of predicting hazards such as debris fl ows and fl ash fl oods. the varied ability of mountain species to respond as temperature warms, glaciers retreat, and weather extremes become more common threatens extinction for some and is a threat to biodiversity in general. an important theme is the enormous diversity within the region in climates and topoclimates, hydrology and ecology, and, above all, in human cultures and the ways in which their activities are complexly interwoven with elements of the cryosphere and alpine ecosystem. the complex regional differentiation magni fi es the signi fi cance of two major problems: the widespread absence of basic scienti fi c investigations into cryogenic processes and limited knowledge of the human cultures and ongoing developments in them. this leads to the theme of 'uncertainty on a himalayan scale', referring more to problems of limited knowledge than inherent physical and social uncertainties. the impacts of climate change are not evenly distributed in intensity within the region, nor among different communities and sectors of society. however, the poorer, more marginalised, people of the high mountains are likely to suffer the earliest and the most. given the evidence that many risks already threaten women disproportionately; and also the elderly, disabled, and indigenous groups, especially their poorer members; identifying changes in the cryosphere and alpine ecosystem most likely to affect them is of utmost importance. in addition, there are broader regional questions of which the more severe highland-to-lowland dangers relate to rapid melting events, fl oods caused by natural dam bursts, increased sedimentation, and droughts caused by reduced or changed fl ow patterns. of course, mountain people have lived with and survived great hazards for thousands of years, but current rates of climate change are among the most rapid known and they are superimposed on severe and, equally, uncertain socioeconomic pressures. a range of issues and policy areas are identi fi ed, from the regional to local community levels, through which these problems might be addressed. they involve land use, water management, disaster management, energy consumption, and human health. it is argued that community-led adaptive strategies and capacities, as well as substantial efforts to reverse the human drivers of climate change, are needed. an important practical and ethical requirement is for all levels of government, research, non-government organisations, and professions to engage with mountain communities in combined efforts to increase their adaptive capacities to climate change.
What is the principal difference in the characteristics of the return (recycle) sludge compared to the effluent from the reactor?
therefore, the characteristics of the return (recycle) sludge are different from the effluent from the reactor, principally in terms of the concentration of the suspended solids
What is the fractional effluent recirculation an inherent component of?
the recirculation is an inherent component of various treatment processes, such as activated sludge and high rate trickling filters
In an activated sludge system, why does the recycled liquid has different characteristics than the influent flow?
in the case of the activated sludge system, the recirculation is specific, since the recycled liquid has different characteristics (sludge removed from the bottom of the secondary settling tank
in plug-flow or cells-in-series systems, a fraction of the effluent can be recirculated to the inlet of the reactor. depending on the application, this fractions can be lower, equal or greater than the influent flow. the recirculation is an inherent component of various treatment processes, such as activated sludge and high rate trickling filters. in the case of the activated sludge system, the recirculation is specific, since the recycled liquid has different characteristics (sludge removed from the bottom of the secondary settling tank). therefore, the characteristics of the return (recycle) sludge are different from the effluent from the reactor, principally in terms of the concentration of the suspended solids. given the importance of this phenomenon and the complexity of its interactions with the reactor, the sludge recirculation in activated sludge systems is not covered in the present section (see part 5). in any situation, when making a mass balance on the reactor, the following points must be taken into consideration:
What climatic changes could also influence?
climatic changes, mediated through changes in crop and livestock practices, could also influence the distribution and impact of several diseases such as malaria across most systems and schistosomiasis and lymphatic filariasis in irrigated systems (patz and confalonieri, 2005
What is climate change for?
climate change is bound to have further impacts on heatrelated mortality and morbidity and on the incidence of climate-sensitive infectious diseases (patz et al., 2005), and these may be considerable
what can affect climate variability impacts on food production and nutrition?
while climate change impacts may have few direct impacts on other diseases such as hiv/aids, climate variability impacts on food production and nutrition can affect susceptibility to hiv/aids as well as to other diseases (williams, 2004
climatic changes, mediated through changes in crop and livestock practices, could also influence the distribution and impact of several diseases such as malaria across most systems and schistosomiasis and lymphatic filariasis in irrigated systems (patz and confalonieri, 2005). climate change is bound to have further impacts on heatrelated mortality and morbidity and on the incidence of climate-sensitive infectious diseases (patz et al., 2005), and these may be considerable. while climate change impacts may have few direct impacts on other diseases such as hiv/aids, climate variability impacts on food production and nutrition can affect susceptibility to hiv/aids as well as to other diseases (williams, 2004). changing disease burdens are bound to add considerably to the development problems caused by successive natural disasters and emergence from conflict, associated with low levels of adaptive capacity (brooks et al., 2005).
Name Countries that have a water shortage.
bangladesh, vietnam, egypt, and iraq
Which countries consume less red meat?
many poorer populations, which currently consume levels of red meat that are lower than those in the overconsuming rich populations by a factor of 10.30
what is one factor that contributes to food shortage?
environmental, particularly climatic
third, diverse health risks are posed by the deprivation, displacement, and conflict that result from shortages of fresh water.8,28 many populations, such as those in bangladesh, vietnam, egypt, and iraq, live downstream on great rivers that traverse several countries. in many cases, river flows are threatened by the loss of glacier mass and snowpack due to global warming and by the increased diversion of flow by neighbors upstream. finally, the need to maintain food supplies and adequate nutrition for the increasing world population presents a major challenge.29 global food production also faces pressures as a result of reduced yield due to land degradation, water shortages, and climate change and the rising demand for animal foods among middle-income populations. furthermore, agriculture (especially livestock production) accounts for around one fourth of global greenhouse-gas emissions.30 thus, there are growing pressures to transform food production (e.g., more mixed cropping and inclusion of acceptable genetically modified crops), distribution, and consumption. since the environmental, particularly climatic, effects of producing red meat from methane-producing ruminants (e.g., cattle, sheep, and goats) are so great, thought needs to be given to the question of whether production of this protein source will need to be curtailed -- while allowing a sufficient increase to ensure safe childhood nutrition in the many poorer populations, which currently consume levels of red meat that are lower than those in the overconsuming rich populations by a factor of 10.30 the global food security issue is
What four tabloid newspapers are included in the analysis?
daily print media coverage of climate change in four united kingdom (uk) tabloid newspapers: the sun (and news of the world ), daily mail (and mail on sunday ), the daily express (and sunday express ), and the mirror (and sunday mirror 
Does climate change coverage in UK tabloid papers diverge from the scientific consensus?
the study finds that uk tabloid coverage significantly diverged from the scientific consensus that humans contribute to climate change
Is there a high concentration of specialist journalists in the tabloid press?
inaccurate reporting may be linked to the lack of specialist journalists in the tabloid press
received 7 december 2007 accepted for publication 28 march 2008 published 28 april 2008 online at stacks.iop.org/erl/3/024002 this letter explores daily print media coverage of climate change in four united kingdom (uk) tabloid newspapers: the sun (and news of the world ), daily mail (and mail on sunday ), the daily express (and sunday express ), and the mirror (and sunday mirror ). through examinations of content in articles over the last seven years (2000-2006), triangulated with semi-structured interviews of journalists and editors, the study finds that uk tabloid coverage significantly diverged from the scientific consensus that humans contribute to climate change. moreover, there was no consistent increase in the percentage of accurate coverage throughout the period of analysis and across all tabloid newspapers, and these findings are not consistent with recent trends documented in united states and uk 'prestige press' or broadsheet newspaper reporting. findings from interviews indicate that inaccurate reporting may be linked to the lack of specialist journalists in the tabloid press. this study therefore contributes to wider discussions of socio-economic inequality, media and the environment. looking to newspapers that are consumed by typically working class readership, this article contributes to ongoing investigations related to what media representations mean for ongoing science-policy interactions as well as potentialities for public engagement.
Where is Cryptogamic covers grows ?
cryptogamic covers (microbial surface communities) growing on rock, plants, and soil
Where is  cryptogamic rock cover grows?
mosaic of lichens on granitic rock
where is cryptogamic plant cover grows ?
epiphytic lichens teloschistes capensis
fig. 15. cryptogamic covers (microbial surface communities) growing on rock, plants, and soil: (a) cryptogamic rock cover: mosaic of lichens on granitic rock, cape point, south africa, (b) cryptogamic plant cover: epiphytic lichens teloschistes capensis ), cape point, south africa, and (c) biological soil crust dominated by the green-algal lichen psora decipiens soebatsfontein, south africa. all scales 5 cm. fig. 16. aerosol generation and enrichment of surface organic material (green layer) at the air-sea interface by bubble bursting. reprinted with permission from macmillan publishers ltd.: nature. wilson et al. (2015) copyright 2015. 360 j. frohlich-nowoisky et al. atmospheric research 182 (2016) 346 - 376
What is the increasing talk in past few years?
within the past few years, there has been increasing talk about climate justice, not only among grassroots activists but also among environmental organizations, policymakers, governments, un delegates and trade associations
Define  climate justice?
 however climate justice is defined, it is often assumed that it is all about re-energizing or reforming development and investment in the global south to steer it in a low-carbon direction, harnessing the potential of carefully constructed green markets, or making capital flow from north to south, instead of from south to north, as part of a global warming mitigation package.what is less discussed are the lessons gained from more than a halfcentury's popular and institutional experience of what development neo-liberal or otherwise, reformed or otherwise actually does
What dose the article has suggested?
this article has suggested that carbon trading, as part of the 'climate development' package that has become entrenched at national and international levels over the past tenyears, is organized in ways that make it more difficult even to see what the central issues of climate justice are, much less to take action on them
within the past few years, there has been increasing talk about climate justice, not only among grassroots activists but also among environmental organizations, policymakers, governments, un delegates and trade associations. however climate justice is defined, it is often assumed that it is all about re-energizing or reforming development and investment in the global south to steer it in a low-carbon direction, harnessing the potential of carefully constructed green markets, or making capital flow from north to south, instead of from south to north, as part of a global warming mitigation package.what is less discussed are the lessons gained from more than a halfcentury's popular and institutional experience of what development neo-liberal or otherwise, reformed or otherwise actually does.what does the project of a just solution to the climate crisis become once it is associated with or incorporated into an economic development or carbon market framework? this article has suggested that carbon trading, as part of the 'climate development' package that has become entrenched at national and international levels over the past tenyears, is organized in ways that make it more difficult even to see what the central issues of climate justice are, much less to take action on them. by concealing and undermining the knowledge and analysis needed to respond to global warming, by obscuring how needed social and technological changes will take place, by generating new and dangerous equivalences, by participating in neo-colonial mythologies and by befuddling the concerned middle-class public, carbon markets are interfering with effective and democratic approaches to global warming. calls for pursuing climate justice within a carbon trading framework, like other essentially glib calls for combining 'environment' and 'development', neither help clarify the problems nor provide a useful framework for addressing them. it is time to bring this discussion back down to earth.
What border area is providing a number of useful example of shifts in week distribution?
the canada-united states border has provided a number of useful examples of shifts in weed distribution
What climate supports plants adapted for cooler conditions and shorter growing seasons?
the canadian climate supports plants adapted for cooler conditions with shorter growing seasons
What assumption has been challenged by recent examples of northward expansions of weed distributions in North America?
many weed species that have been historically problematic in the united states are assumed to be absent or not considered troublesome in canada
although the potential for selection pressure to promote potential range expansion in invasive plants is clear from a theoretical perspective, it is valuable to evaluate existing empirical evidence. the number of documented examples is increasing and many of these are related to key aspects of climate change, such as northward range expansion in the northern hemisphere (clements et al. 2004; table 1). although it is not a clear climatic delineation, the canada-united states border has provided a number of useful examples of shifts in weed distribution. most of the 6416 km-border is at 49  n latitude and thus, in general, the canadian climate supports plants adapted for cooler conditions with shorter growing seasons. many weed species that have been historically problematic in the united states are assumed to be absent or not considered troublesome in canada; this assumption has been challenged by recent examples of northward expansions of weed distributions in north america (clements et al. 2004).
why so many people  have lost their lives because, when a storm hits?
many have lost their lives because, when a storm hits, they simply could not get out of buildings in time
what are the most vulnerable of all building types to storm danger?
one of the most vulnerable of all building types to storm dangers is, surprisingly, the most ' modern ' type: the thin, tight-skinned, air-conditioned building with no opening windows and no escape route onto the roof
what is the Another problem that has caused deaths during the flooding ?
another problem that has caused deaths during the flooding associated with windstorms is the location of the means of escape underground, in a car park or an exit route or a subway, as these flood first and trap occupants within a building - or kill them on their way out. during floods in houston, texas
many have lost their lives because, when a storm hits, they simply could not get out of buildings in time. one of the most vulnerable of all building types to storm dangers is, surprisingly, the most ' modern ' type: the thin, tight-skinned, air-conditioned building with no opening windows and no escape route onto the roof. if such buildings are located on a flood plain where there is any risk of water rising to block the only doors on the ground floor, then people have no way out. if the air conditioning then fails, if there is, for instance, a blackout or the plant room is in a flooded basement, and there is little breathable air in the building (this happened in new york during the august 2003 blackout), then things become critical. if you add to this situation exposure to pollutants, perhaps a broken sewage mains or gas pipes damaged in the basement as furniture is banged against them by flood water, or similarly broken toxin containers, then that building may be a death trap, in which, unless occupants are willing and able to smash a glass cladding panel (virtually impossible with some modern ' bomb proof ' glasses) they could well die. risk assessments encompassing such likelihoods should be done for all buildings of this type. another problem that has caused deaths during the flooding associated with windstorms is the location of the means of escape underground, in a car park or an exit route or a subway, as these flood first and trap occupants within a building - or kill them on their way out. during floods in houston, texas, in 2001 a secretary was travelling down in a lift when a power blackout occurred, and as is standard in many lift programmes, the lift lowered her gently to the basement, which was full of water and she drowned. 8 the advice is, during floods and storms, as in fire, do not use the lifts. also buildings on flood plains must be increasingly closely regulated. experience has shown that it should be compulsory for bungalows to have escape routes, with accessible windows fitted in their roofs to enable occupants to clamber onto the roof in the case of a rapid inundation of their homes. more free ebooks http://fast-file.blogspot.com
How many plants fitted niche models 16for?
we fitted niche models16for 150 plant
When was the projected change ?
we then projected changing suitability surfaces until the end of the twenty-first century based on an annual climatic series for the intergovernmental panel on climate change a1b scenario (supplementary methods
What was the base of deciding value?
we defined for each species and parameter a low and high value along a credible range (see supplementary table s1 and fig. s3
we fitted niche models16for 150 plant species by relating occurrence data from 14,040 vegetation plots to one soil and five bioclimatic variables downscaled to a 100 m spatial resolution. we then projected changing suitability surfaces until the end of the twenty-first century based on an annual climatic series for the intergovernmental panel on climate change a1b scenario (supplementary methods). initial species distributions for hybrid model simulations were set by suitability projections under present climatic conditions, converted to presence/absence using prevalence as threshold. to correct for model predictions outside the realized range, these projections were filtered by maps of actual species occurrence in 55 alpine regions23. populations of particular 100 x 100 m sites were represented by stage(seeds, juveniles, adults) structured cohorts. population dynamics was driven by demographic rates (germination, seed bank persistence, juvenile survival, maturation, fecundity, clonal growth, adult survival). we collected species-specific data on these rates from databases and literature (supplementary table s1). owing to remaining parameter uncertainties, we defined for each species and parameter a low and high value along a credible range (see supplementary table s1 and fig. s3
What is the second hypothesis of climate change engagement?
in support of the second hypothesis, climate change engagement was greater among those who were more attached to their local areas
When the maintaining proximity to the attachment figure (through physical means or even by evoking a mental representation of them) is initiated?
maintaining proximity to the attachment figure (through physical means or even by evoking a mental representation of them) is initiated when individuals experience threat
What is an interesting avenue for future research?
the directionality of the effect between place attachment and climate change engagement remains unclear but would be an interesting avenue for future research
in support of the second hypothesis, climate change engagement was greater among those who were more attached to their local areas. thus, it empirically scannell and gifford 77 supports gifford's (2011) proposition that lack of attachment with place is one of the key barriers to climate action. that connections to one's local area can indeed translate into concern for this broader issue is interesting. how might this relationship emerge? one possibility is that when individuals recognize that the impacts of global climate change have local implications, they may become more averse to its risks and then mobilize themselves to act. this is congruent with previous research which has shown that place attachment evokes opposition to place threats and motivates place-protective behavior (e.g., scannell gifford, 2010b; stedman, 2002; vaske kobrin, 2001). another explanation is offered by interpersonal attachment theory. given the overlap between place attachment and interpersonal attachment (see, for example, giuliani, 2003), principles from the latter theory may inform the former. a key attachment theory principle is that individuals seek out and rely on their attachment figures for emotion regulation and support (shaver mikulincer, 2007). maintaining proximity to the attachment figure (through physical means or even by evoking a mental representation of them) is initiated when individuals experience threat. for example, exposing participants to death-related primes increases recall of positive experiences of their primary caregiver and decreases recall of negative experiences (cox et al., 2008). thus, perhaps climate change threats increase accessibility of place attachment constructs, and people obtain some solace from this threat by reaffirming their place bond. in other words, judgments of climate change as an important and worrisome issue may heighten perceived place bonds. in sum, the directionality of the effect between place attachment and climate change engagement remains unclear but would be an interesting avenue for future research.
Where are enhanced summer droughts expected?
enhanced summer droughts are expected for southern europe and central north america
By what percentage may the variability of summer temperatures in Central Europe increase?
the variability of summer temperatures in central europe may in fact increase by more than 100
What is likely to produce changes of greater than one standard deviation in both precipitation and temperature?
a doubling of co2 is likely to produce changes of greater than one standard deviation in both precipitation and temperature
raisanen 2002), as well as increasing intensity (raisanen and joelsson 2001). enhanced summer droughts are expected for southern europe and central north america (seneviratne et al 2002). the variability of summer temperatures in central europe may in fact increase by more than 100% (schar et al 2004). the theoretical line of evidence is independent of the problems associated with adequate datasets and meaningful spatial scales. considering a given probability distribution of occurrence for any climatic parameter, changes in mean values as well as increased variance in amplitude will inevitably lead to more frequent and more intense extreme events at one tail of the distribution (meehl et al 2000; figure 3). it should be noted that extremes at the minimum of a given parameter will virtually disappear when mean values increase, whereas historically unprecedented intensities arise at the maximum, so that biota will face novel events and habitat conditions. statistically, evidence of changing mean values is easier to handle than evidence of intensifying extreme values. many examples of shifting means are available (ipcc 2001). for the standard gaussian distribution, an increase in the mean by one standard deviation makes an event with a former probability of occurrence of 1% 9.2 times more probable. a doubling of co2 is likely to produce changes of greater than one standard deviation in both precipitation and temperature. intuitively, an increase in rainfall severity, for example, is probable. this is because a warmer atmosphere contains more latent energy (kunkel 2003). for almost normally distributed parameters - such as temperature - changes in variance might not be climatically relevant, although statistically sound. in contrast, for clearly non-normally distributed parameters - such as precipitation - changes in variance are predicted to increase significantly (ipcc 2001). overall, evidence suggests that weather extremes are changing. terrestrial ecosystems across the globe are adapted to regional climate dynamics. shifts in vegetation or ecosystems across large spatial and long temporal scales represent gradual changes in climate. in contrast, instead of only transiently affecting the dynamics of ecosystems at the local scale, we propose that discrete events of novel extreme magnitude and frequency can have long-term ecological significance and drive ecosystems beyond stability and resilience. accordingly, the debate about climate change has expanded from an analysis of trends to an interest in extreme events. thus, we now aim to clarify the "event" character of climatic processes and to quantify their "extremeness".
What take a very aggregated form?
the damage functions in poms take a very aggregated form
What leads to different point estimates?
incorporating climate uncertainty leads to different point estimates
What can lead to finding runs of the model that produce catastrophic outcomes?
adding uncertainty in poms can lead to finding runs of the model that produce catastrophic outcomes
the damage functions in poms take a very aggregated form (see table 2 and are built on meagre empirical evidence. typically, they model damages in period t as an arbitrary convex function of the increase in global average temperature relative to some benchmark increase (e.g. due to the doubling in co2 concentration or a fixed increase of 2*c). damages include effects on labour, land productivity and capital stock as well as reduction in biodiversity and natural capital. since neither tangible nor non-tangible impacts of climate change are easy to estimate, they are typically arbitrarily aggregated, which can lead to misleading projections. for example, in examining seven prominent studies, burke et al. 2015 demonstrated that incorporating climate uncertainty leads to different point estimates, a much wider range of projected impacts and substantially more negative worst-case scenarios. adding uncertainty in poms can lead to finding runs of the model that produce catastrophic outcomes (see, for example, hope 2013 who finds scenarios under which the net present value of climate damages adds up to 100 years of current world output). similarly, butler et al. 2014 find that failing to account for uncertainties associated with climate sensitivity, global participation in abatement and the cost of lower emission energy sources in dice results in significant underestimations of damage and mitigation costs associated with a doubled co2 stabilisation goal.
'The impact of LULCC on regional-scale climate remains quite uncertain. 'As per the study what may be the reason?
the impact of lulcc on regional-scale climate remains quite uncertain6,7. most probably, lulcc in the form of deforestation acts to cool midand high latitudes3, particularly in the winter and spring, and to warm the tropics and sub-tropics
How can the biophysical impact of LULCC be realized?
the biophysical impact of lulcc is realized through three mechanisms: (1) an increased albedo and hence a reduction in net radiation9(crops are commonly more reflective than forests); (2) an amplification of the positive snow- albedo feedback (forests mask snow on the ground more effectively than crops and pasture)10; and (3) a change in how net radiation is partitioned between latent heat and sensible heat fluxes
Why LULCC in midand high latitudes tend to cool ?
lulcc in midand high latitudes tends to cool because mechanisms (1) and (2) dominate in winter and spring owing to snow. in summer, in the absence of snow, mechanism (3) can be significant if moisture limits evaporation
although many studies of the global and regional biophysical impacts of lulcc have been conducted4-8, the impact of lulcc on regional-scale climate remains quite uncertain6,7. most probably, lulcc in the form of deforestation acts to cool midand high latitudes3, particularly in the winter and spring, and to warm the tropics and sub-tropics. the biophysical impact of lulcc is realized through three mechanisms: (1) an increased albedo and hence a reduction in net radiation9(crops are commonly more reflective than forests); (2) an amplification of the positive snow- albedo feedback (forests mask snow on the ground more effectively than crops and pasture)10; and (3) a change in how net radiation is partitioned between latent heat and sensible heat fluxes (crops and pasture have less capacity to sustain high latent heat fluxes, compared with forests, when evaporative demand is high). lulcc in midand high latitudes tends to cool because mechanisms (1) and (2) dominate in winter and spring owing to snow. in summer, in the absence of snow, mechanism (3) can be significant if moisture limits evaporation. in the tropics, lulcc tends to be associated with warming and drying3because mechanism (3) dominates and sensible heat fluxes increase, warming the atmosphere. the relative dominance of these mechanisms depends on the amount of snow and the amount and seasonality of precipitation. less snow in a
What do school climate studies rely on for data?
the majority of the school climate studies reviewed relied upon student perceptions of school climate to predict student reports of behaviors and psychological well-being
What is the benefit of using student perceptions to study school climate studies?
however, there is an upside to using student perceptions of school climate to link to student outcomes. if student perceptions of climate are more closely linked to psychological functioning and behavior than other source ratings of school climate (e.g., observer, teacher, administrator), then student perceptions are important considerations for school climate reform
Are student perceptions vital to climate reform?
if student perceptions are tightly linked to outcomes, then climate reform will only truly be effective if student perceptions of the environment are altered as well
shared method variance is a concerning issue for much of the school climate research, particularly in regard to the research on student behavioral and psychosocial outcomes. the majority of the school climate studies reviewed relied upon student perceptions of school climate to predict student reports of behaviors and psychological well-being. the use of only one source to provide information on both the independent and dependent variables may bias analyses toward detection of significant findings. however, there is an upside to using student perceptions of school climate to link to student outcomes. if student perceptions of climate are more closely linked to psychological functioning and behavior than other source ratings of school climate (e.g., observer, teacher, administrator), then student perceptions are important considerations for school climate reform. if student perceptions are tightly linked to outcomes, then climate reform will only truly be effective if student perceptions of the environment are altered as well. however, greater validation for these associations can be derived from having additional source reporters of climate, particularly for outcomes that can only be assessed by students themselves (e.g., depression) and having multiple source informants for outcomes when possible (e.g., school records for referrals, teacher ratings of behavior problems).
Which data involved in climate policy?
the data for our empirical analysis stem from a world-wide survey which was carried out with the help of a standardized questionnaire and which was sent in 2004 via e-mail to 1695 agents involved in climate policy
What should the participants obtained for an Internet questionnaire?
the participants obtained an individual login and password for an internet questionnaire
What is the other alternative for Internet questionnaire?
alternatively, the participants could fill out a word-document or pdf and send it back via e-mail or postal mail
the data for our empirical analysis stem from a world-wide survey which was carried out with the help of a standardized questionnaire and which was sent in 2004 via e-mail to 1695 agents involved in climate policy. the e-mail addresses of the agents were taken from official un documents available on the internet such as from different climate policy and ipcc workshops. the participants obtained an individual login and password for an internet questionnaire. this procedure of sending out passwords allowed us to control the access to the survey and, in particular, ensured that each participant could fill out the questionnaire only once. alternatively, the participants could fill out a word-document or pdf and send it back via e-mail or postal mail.
What are water resources?
water resources is one of the highest-priority issues with respect to climate change impacts and adaptation in canada. a clean and reliable water supply is critical for domestic use, food and energy production, transportation, recreation and maintenance of natural ecosystems
What have been the biggest water problems in Canada?
although canada possesses a relative abundance of water on a per capita basis, the uneven distribution of water resources and year-to-year variability mean that most regions of the country have experienced water-related problems, such as droughts, floods and associated water quality issues
What is expected of these problems?
such problems are expected to become more common as a result of climate change. the hydrological cycle is greatly influenced by temperature
water resources is one of the highest-priority issues with respect to climate change impacts and adaptation in canada. a clean and reliable water supply is critical for domestic use, food and energy production, transportation, recreation and maintenance of natural ecosystems. although canada possesses a relative abundance of water on a per capita basis, the uneven distribution of water resources and year-to-year variability mean that most regions of the country have experienced water-related problems, such as droughts, floods and associated water quality issues. such problems are expected to become more common as a result of climate change. the hydrological cycle is greatly influenced by temperature
What is the most important global warming or climate change?
furthermore, 'global warming' is seen as more important and concerning than 'climate change
What describes climate change?
we see these processes of assimilation, accommodation, objectification and anchoring at work in the language used to describe climate change
In what new ways are climate change included?
new concepts such as climate change into existing knowledge through linguistic constructivism
returning to the issue of climate change, we see these processes of assimilation, accommodation, objectification and anchoring at work in the language used to describe climate change and in the way new information about the issue is interpreted. recent research sheds some light on how people integrate new concepts such as climate change into existing knowledge through linguistic constructivism. nerlich and koteyko (2009) have tracked the rise of lexical 'carbon compounds' used in the mass media to communicate climate change. the most prevalent carbon compounds they have identified relate to: finance (e.g., 'carbon tax', 'carbon budget'); lifestyle (e.g., 'carbon footprint', 'carbon diet'); and morality/religion (e.g., 'carbon sinner', 'carbon indulgences'). whitmarsh (whitmarsh, 2009b) found different terminology about climate change is understood in different ways and evokes different responses: 'global warming' is associated more readily with heat--related impacts, ozone depletion and human causes than 'climate change', which is more often seem as having natural causes and a range of impacts; furthermore, 'global warming' is seen as more important and concerning than 'climate change'.
What are important determinants for mass-movement frequency and magnitude?
in addition to future changes in temperature and rainfall intensity, changes in sediment supply and land use are important determinants for mass-movement frequency and magnitude
Define Recent observations?
recent observations at several sites in the swiss alps indicate that sediment supply can in fact change significantly as a result of permafrost degradation of rock and scree slopes or mass movements related to other processes (huggel et al., 2012
What is the average flow speed of rock glaciers?
the average flow speed of rock glaciers in the valais alps (switzerland) was usually below 1 m yr-1, ground and remote sensing based monitoring has revealed acceleration of rock glaciers surface flow-speed up to 4 m yr-1, and occasionally up to 15 m yr-1, in recent years (delaloye et al., 2008; roer et al., 2008; figure 4
in addition to future changes in temperature and rainfall intensity, changes in sediment supply and land use are important determinants for mass-movement frequency and magnitude. recent observations at several sites in the swiss alps indicate that sediment supply can in fact change significantly as a result of permafrost degradation of rock and scree slopes or mass movements related to other processes (huggel et al., 2012). while the average flow speed of rock glaciers in the valais alps (switzerland) was usually below 1 m yr-1, ground and remote sensing based monitoring has revealed acceleration of rock glaciers surface flow-speed up to 4 m yr-1, and occasionally up to 15 m yr-1, in recent years (delaloye et al., 2008; roer et al., 2008; figure 4). this phenomenon has been reported over wide regions of the alps, with morphological features similar to those observed with landslides, such as transversal cracks, surface subsidence in the upper part and rapid advance of
How can the agreement of 1998 be evaluated?
the 1998 agreement can be evaluated based on hydrological data, energy trade data, and expert interviews
What was the strong precipitation anomaly that caused by?
most probably related to the strong warm phase of the el nin~o-southern oscillation (enso) at that time (cane, 2010
What problem did the agreement of 1998 attempt to solve?
solve the problem of effective water and energy resources sharing
the implementation of the 1998 agreement can be evaluated based on hydrological data, energy trade data, and expert interviews. our analysis of this information strongly suggests that the 1998 agreement has, thus far, failed to solve the problem of effective water and energy resources sharing. table a.ii in the online appendix presents seasonal outflows of the toktogul reservoir as well as deviations from the 1998 agreement. the summer releases have closely followed the levels agreed prior to 2008. in this year though, there was a strong negative precipitation anomaly, most probably related to the strong warm phase of the el nin~o-southern oscillation (enso) at that time (cane, 2010).10after that, compliance has remained very low as seasonal releases became more and more skewed towards the winter in favor of hydroelectric
What has been brought together under the general heading of "climate"?
important environmental features in work settings have sometimes been brought together under the general heading of "climate", usually measured through individuals' perceptions of their organization's policies and practices (e.g. schneider, 1990
What has Associated research investigated?
associated research has investigated perceptions of "culture", sometimes taking measures of perceived culture through questionnaires similar to those applied in climate studies (e.g. reichers and schneider, 1990; payne, 2000). as described by denison (1996, p. 624), "culture" "refers to the deep structure of organizations", whereas "climate" mainly concerns "those aspects of the social environment that are consciously perceived by organizational members
What do Measures of climate seek?
measures of climate seek to represent employees' experiences of important organizational values and processes, and thus have often been thought of as possible predictors of organizational performance
it has long been clear that behaviour is a function both of a person's characteristics and the nature of his or her environment. important environmental features in work settings have sometimes been brought together under the general heading of "climate", usually measured through individuals' perceptions of their organization's policies and practices (e.g. schneider, 1990; ashkenasy et al 2000). associated research has investigated perceptions of "culture", sometimes taking measures of perceived culture through questionnaires similar to those applied in climate studies (e.g. reichers and schneider, 1990; payne, 2000). as described by denison (1996, p. 624), "culture" "refers to the deep structure of organizations", whereas "climate" mainly concerns "those aspects of the social environment that are consciously perceived by organizational members". measures of climate seek to represent employees' experiences of important organizational values and processes, and thus have often been thought of as possible predictors of organizational performance. four kinds of performance may be suggested: economic (productivity, profitability, etc.), technological (development of new products, etc.), commercial (market share, a specific niche, etc.), and social (effects on customers, suppliers and the public at large) (bartram et al 2002). most research in the area of this paper has examined economic aspects of organizational performance, and that approach will be taken here. wilderom et al (2000) located and summarized 10 relevant studies. they reported that, although most of those had found some dimensions of organizational climate to be associated with performance, different climate aspects had emerged as important in different studies. in addition, causal interpretation of observed relationships has been made difficult by a frequent reliance on cross-sectional research designs, obtaining measures of performance for the period immediately before climate is assessed. it is instead desirable to examine climate at one point in time as a possible predictor of performance in a subsequent period. two studies that obtained objective organizational performance data later than the two studies that obtained objective organizational performance data later than the assessment of climate were by denison (1990) and by gordon and ditomaso (1992). in the first case, a climate that encouraged employee involvement in company decision-making (through individual inputs and between-role collaboration) was found (across 34 firms in 25 different industries) to predict company financial success in subsequent years; however, quantitative support for the importance of three other climate dimensions was not obtained.
the one that is linked to photosynthesis?
photosynthesis is intimately tied to climatic conditions, both directly and indirectly
how is CO2 absorption in C3 plants?
in c3 plants, the uptake of co2 by rubisco is the first step in photosynthetic co2 assimilation, and rubisco is not saturated with co2 at normal intercellular co2 concentrations. both co2 and o2 also compete for access to the active sites on rubisco, with increasing co2 favouring carboxylations at the expense of oxygenations, so that an increasing proportion of reducing and phosphorylation potentials can be channelled towards co2 fixation
how can plants maintain a watery indoor environment?
plants could maintain an aqueous internal environment by closing their stomata and minimising water loss by fully surrounding their leaves by a cuticular epidermis that allows only minor rates of water loss
photosynthesis is intimately tied to climatic conditions, both directly and indirectly. while light absorption is independent of temperature, the subsequent steps in converting light into chemical energy respond to temperature in complex ways. in c3 plants, the uptake of co2 by rubisco is the first step in photosynthetic co2 assimilation, and rubisco is not saturated with co2 at normal intercellular co2 concentrations. both co2 and o2 also compete for access to the active sites on rubisco, with increasing co2 favouring carboxylations at the expense of oxygenations, so that an increasing proportion of reducing and phosphorylation potentials can be channelled towards co2 fixation. indirect effects of climate change may ultimately be even more important. plants require an aqueous medium in their cells, and photosynthetic function is impaired when plant water status falls below critical values. plants could maintain an aqueous internal environment by closing their stomata and minimising water loss by fully surrounding their leaves by a cuticular epidermis that allows only minor rates of water loss. however, stomatal closure would also prevent the diffusive entry of co2 into photosynthesising cells. on-going water loss is therefore an inevitable cost of the need to maintain an open diffusion path for co2 to enter photosynthesising leaves. plants photosynthesise in order to produce carbon for growth. to grow new tissues, plants also need inorganic nutrients from the soil, such as nitrogen and phosphorus, and plant responses to climatic changes can be modified by the availability of these nutrients. nutrient availability itself can also be affected by environmental factors, especially temperature, because the rate of soil nutrient mineralisation strongly depends on temperature. for a detailed assessment of the overall effects of a changing climate on photosynthesis, it is necessary to investigate the response to the simultaneous changes in several climatic variables, such as temperature, water availability, and co2 concentration. photosynthesis responds to all aspects of the climate. some of these direct and indirect ecophysiological responses will be described below, and the various responses will then be brought together into a fully integrated system response.
Renewable energy has been found to be significant by who?
according to the world bank (2005, p. 7), renewable energy and energy efficiency projects financed by development assistance have been significant
In the paragragh what are the 4 relevant categories?
world bank data, for example, the potentially relevant categories "energy and mining", "environment" and "rural development
What could not be apart of the project?
the project could also not have any energy component or relate to fossil fuels
according to the world bank (2005, p. 7), renewable energy and energy efficiency projects financed by development assistance have been significant, but with high inter-annual variation, ever since the early 1990s. for earlier years, such data is generally not available. this may in itself be a reflection of the low interest in the topic before the rio conference. for world bank data, for example, the potentially relevant categories "energy and mining", "environment" and "rural development" do not make it possible to determine whether the project was promoting renewable energy. the project could also not have any energy component or relate to fossil fuels.
Who supplied the Swedish bird ringing recovery data?
thord fransson and tuomo kolehmainen supplied the swedish bird ringing recovery data
By what the Swedish Bird Survey is supported?
the swedish bird survey is supported by grants from the swedish environmental protection agency
Who were involved in producing Dutch trends for common birds?
arend van dijk, sovon, organises the bmp and arco van strien, statistics netherlands and ruud foppen, sovon, were involved in producing dutch trends for common birds
we dedicate this paper to all volunteers participating in the national breeding bird monitoring schemes. thord fransson and tuomo kolehmainen supplied the swedish bird ringing recovery data. liselott marklund and peranders esseen made swedish habitat data available. the swedish bird survey is supported by grants from the swedish environmental protection agency. arend van dijk, sovon, organises the bmp and arco van strien, statistics netherlands and ruud foppen, sovon, were involved in producing dutch trends for common birds. we particularly thank mark rehfisch, dan chamberlain, christiaan both and an anonymous referee for providing valuable comments to improve an early version of this paper. j.-p. moussus kindly improved the english.
Expansion of ENSO ?
el nino-southern oscillation
What is meant by ENSO ?
the el nino-southern oscillation (enso) is a coupled tropical mode of interannual climate variability that involves oceanic dynamics (jin 1997) as well as large-scale atmospheric changes
Write the name of waves in this paragraph ?
rossby waves
the el nino-southern oscillation (enso) is a coupled tropical mode of interannual climate variability that involves oceanic dynamics (jin 1997) as well as large-scale atmospheric changes (bjerknes 1969; gill 1980). through anomalous diabatic heating el nino and la nina conditions excite meridionally propagating atmospheric rossby waves that influence weather conditions even in high latitudes. recent greenhouse warming simulations performed with enso-resolving coupled general circulation models (cgcms) have revealed that the projected amplitude and pattern of future tropical pacific warming (timmermann et al. 1999; collins 2000; collins at al. 2005) and the response of the equatorial annual cycle (timmermann et al. 2004a) and enso (timmermann et al. 1999; timmermann 2001; philip and van oldenborgh 2006; guilyardi 2006) to anthropogenic climate change are highly model dependent. constraining this uncertainty is an important challenge for the climate community. a possible way to assess the sensitivity of enso to climate perturbations is to study its behavior under past
what issues voter is typically not concerned?
the voter is typically not concerned about environmental issues (and is very ill informed about them
What plays  play a significant role in influencing policy?
business lobbies, such as industry associations and ideological think-tanks, play a significant role in influencing policy
Which nation in the world first to sign the 1992 UN Climate Change Convention?
the usa, which has known, in depth, about the problems and science of climate change for over 40 years and was the first nation in the world to sign the 1992 un climate change convention
the voter is typically not concerned about environmental issues (and is very ill informed about them). <s121>* business lobbies, such as industry associations and ideological think-tanks, play a significant role in influencing policy. the usa, which has known, in depth, about the problems and science of climate change for over 40 years and was the first nation in the world to sign the 1992 un climate change convention, has, with its blocking tactics over kyoto, managed to prevent the world from ' lockingon ' to clear and achievable targets that may provide the direct strike at the problem we need to survive, and meanwhile the problem grows in strength daily. however, many hope that the new administration may change all this in copenhagen.
What did environmental manipulation experiments convey?
environmental manipulation experiments showed that species respond individualistically to each environmental-change variable
Does adding nitrogen create any kind of response in plants?
the greatest responses of plants were generally to nutrient, particularly nitrogen, addition
Does global warming affect species in the Arctic?
we know from the ways in which species distributions have changed in the arctic under past climates, and from the characteristics of current arctic species selected by current environmental factors (2), that the performance, abundance and distribution of current arctic species will change as the future climate of the arctic becomes warmer (3
environmental manipulation experiments showed that species respond individualistically to each environmental-change variable. the greatest responses of plants were generally to nutrient, particularly nitrogen, addition. summer warming experiments showed that woody plant responses were dominant and that mosses and lichens became less abundant. responses to warming were controlled by moisture availability and snow cover. many invertebrates increased population growth in response to summer warming, as long as desiccation was not induced. co2 and uv-b enrichment experiments showed that plant and animal responses were small. however, some microorganisms and species of fungi were sensitive to increased uv-b and some intensive mutagenic actions could, perhaps, lead to unexpected epidemic outbreaks. tundra soil heating, co2 enrichment and amendment with mineral nutrients generally accelerated microbial activity. algae are likely to dominate cyanobacteria in milder climates. expected increases in winter freeze-thaw cycles leading to ice-crust formation are likely to severely reduce winter survival rate and disrupt the population dynamics of many terrestrial animals. a deeper snow cover is likely to restrict access to winter pastures by reindeer/caribou and their ability to flee from predators while any earlier onset of the snow-free period is likely to stimulate increased plant growth. initial species responses to climate change might occur at the sub-species level: an arctic plant or animal species with high genetic/racial diversity has proved an ability to adapt to different environmental conditions in the past and is likely to do so also in the future. indigenous knowledge, air photographs, satellite images and monitoring show that changes in the distributions of some species are already occurring: arctic vegetation is becoming more shrubby and more productive, there have been recent changes in the ranges of caribou, and "new" species of insects and birds previously associated with areas south of the treeline have been recorded. in contrast, almost all arctic breeding bird species are declining and models predict further quite dramatic reductions of the populations of tundra birds due to warming. species-climate response surface models predict potential future ranges of current arctic species that are often markedly reduced and displaced northwards in response to warming. in contrast, invertebrates and microorganisms are very likely to quickly expand their ranges northwards into the arctic. the distributions of species that currently occur in the arctic represent a snapshot of a dynamic and ongoing process driven by historical climate changes such as glaciations and deglaciations (1). we know from the ways in which species distributions have changed in the arctic under past climates, and from the characteristics of current arctic species selected by current environmental factors (2), that the performance, abundance and distribution of current arctic species will change as the future climate of the arctic becomes warmer (3). indeed, monitoring and indigenous observations are already recording current species changes that are occurring in the arctic. however, it is difficult to determine the causes of these changes, while predicting current arctic species responses to future climate change is still more complex. species respond individualistically to environmental variables such as temperature (4) and even various processes within one species (e.g. reproductive development, photosynthesis, respiration, leaf phenology in plants) respond individualistically to any one environmental change. knowledge on how species respond to changes in temperature come from many sources including indigenous knowledge (ik), current species distributions related to climate, and experimental manipulations of temperature in the laboratory and field. often, however, the ways in which a species responds to changes in temperature are moderated by how its neighbors, competitors, facilitators, herbivores, food, pests and parasites and future immigrant species respond to the same environmental change (5). responses of species to changes in temperature are also likely to be modified by changes in a cooccurring environmental variable such as uv-b radiation (3). despite the daunting complexity of understanding future ecosystem change from the complex interactions among its components species, a knowledge of species-level responses is essential to those people using particular species as a resource (3). this knowledge is also important for understanding the relationship between biodiversity responses to climate change and the functioning of future, changed, ecosystems that could have implications beyond the southern borders of the future arctic region (6). this paper is part of an holistic approach to assess impacts of climate change on arctic terrestrial ecosystems (3, 7). here, we focus on current, short-term phenotypic, and longer-term genetic responses of plant, animal and microorganism species to a changing climate and uv-b regime. our information is taken from indigenous observations, scientific monitoring, experiments and models.
What is the sol-air temperature?
the sol-air temperature is a hypothetical outdoor air temperature that would cause the same heat flow for a shaded (roof) surface as that experienced by the illuminated one
What is the fixed temperature difference?
the steady-state heat flow per unit area (heat flux), q a through a wall or roof across which a fixed temperature difference
the sol-air temperature is a hypothetical outdoor air temperature that would cause the same heat flow for a shaded (roof) surface as that experienced by the illuminated one. eq. (1) shows the heat flow due to temperature difference and radiation can be obtained from the superposition of the heat flows due to temperature difference, ta  ti, and radiation, g it should be stressed that eq. (1) or (2) cannot be used to calculate the instantaneous heat flow for a roof under non-steady state conditions. 6. definition of thermal resistance r -value) for the subsequent development, a clear understanding of the definition of the thermal resistance value r -value) is important. the steady-state heat flow per unit area (heat flux), q a through a wall or roof across which a fixed temperature difference,
What is of scientific and policy concern?
the level of agreement between climate model simulations and observed surface temperature change is a topic of scientific and policy concern
How are global mean temperatures typically calculated?
global mean temperatures from climate model simulations are typically calculated using surface air temperatures, while the corresponding observations are based on a blend of air and sea surface temperatures
Between which years are there discrepancy trends due to the HadCRUT4 methodology?
applying the methodology of the hadcrut4 record to climate model temperature fields accounts for 38% of the discrepancy in trend between models and observations over the period 1975-2014
the level of agreement between climate model simulations and observed surface temperature change is a topic of scientific and policy concern. while the earth system continues to accumulate energy due to anthropogenic and other radiative forcings, estimates of recent surface temperature evolution fall at the lower end of climate model projections. global mean temperatures from climate model simulations are typically calculated using surface air temperatures, while the corresponding observations are based on a blend of air and sea surface temperatures. this work quantifies a systematic bias in model-observation comparisons arising from differential warming rates between sea surface temperatures and surface air temperatures over oceans. a further bias arises from the treatment of temperatures in regions where the sea ice boundary has changed. applying the methodology of the hadcrut4 record to climate model temperature fields accounts for 38% of the discrepancy in trend between models and observations over the period 1975-2014.
the impacts on GDP and profits end up implying in what?
the impacts on gdp and pro fi ts imply a trade-off between costeffectiveness and political feasibility. cost-effectiveness is enhanced through auctioning combined with recycling through cuts in marginal tax rates
how are the profits of key industry stakeholders maintained or expanded?
however, pro fi ts of key industrial stakeholders are maintained or expanded through free allocation, which is much less cost-effective. the cases of 100% auctioning or 100% free allocation are polar cases
what are the government's intermediate option?
the government has other, intermediate options: cap and trade can involve a mix of both types of allocation
the impacts on gdp and pro fi ts imply a trade-off between costeffectiveness and political feasibility. cost-effectiveness is enhanced through auctioning combined with recycling through cuts in marginal tax rates. however, pro fi ts of key industrial stakeholders are maintained or expanded through free allocation, which is much less cost-effective. the cases of 100% auctioning or 100% free allocation are polar cases. the government has other, intermediate options: cap and trade can involve a mix of both types of allocation. the middle columns of table 2 show the impact of an intermediate case. here we examined what share of allowances would need to be given out free in order to preserve the pro fi ts of the most carbon-intensive industries. the numbers in parentheses indicate the share of total allowances that need to be given to the various industries in order to preserve the pro fi ts in those industries. to preserve pro fi ts in all of the listed carbon-intensive industries, the total allowances needed to accomplish this goal is 13.7% -- a relatively small share of the total. this means that maintaining pro fi ts in these industries is consistent with auctioning over 86% of the allowances. because a large percentage of the allowances can be auctioned, this pro fi t-preserving case is not much more costly than the most cost-effective case of 100% auctioning, so long as the auction revenues are recycled in the form of cuts in marginal income tax rates. the cost is .52% of gdp, as compared with .47% in the most cost-effective case.11
Which softwares were used for digital analysis?
e.g. imagej; rasband 2009
For multiple time points in a time series, what study was used?
only the end point (longest duration of the study
What were the performance measure categories?
survival (note that mortality estimates were converted to survival rates), growth (biomass, size, cover or photosynthetic rate) and fecundity (number or mass of propagules or reproductive structures
we identified 89 articles that met our criteria (appendix s1 and s2), including unpublished data from a dissertation (g. coffman, unpublished data) and our own studies (d. blumenthal l. perry, unpublished data). from these articles, we extracted data for 132 unique studies (including 204 native and 157 non-native species) that were run independently with distinct controls. when necessary, we used digital photo analysis software (e.g. imagej; rasband 2009) to estimate values from published figures. when data were presented for multiple time points in a time series, only the end point (longest duration of the study) was included. when more than two treatment levels were established in a single study, or multiple performance measures were reported, they were all included in our analyses. performance measure categories included survival (note that mortality estimates were converted to survival rates), growth (biomass, size, cover or photosynthetic rate) and fecundity (number or mass of propagules or reproductive structures). we extracted, when available, mean, sample size and variance for the performance of each species.
What are the three critical climate phenomena that are driving the African climate?
driving the african climate are three critical climate phenomena which are inter-related in complex and still not yet fully understood ways. these are the movement of the intertropical convergence zone, the el nino-southern oscillation and the annual alternation of the monsoons
What is ITCZ ?
the intertropical convergence zone (itcz
How does ITCZ behave over the ocean and land?
over the oceans the itcz remains more or less at the equator but over land it moves north and south following the seasonal tilting of the globe towards the sun
driving the african climate are three critical climate phenomena which are inter-related in complex and still not yet fully understood ways. these are the movement of the intertropical convergence zone, the el nino-southern oscillation and the annual alternation of the monsoons. each interacts with the other, determining regional temperature and rainfall regimes. each, also, has its distinctive pattern that varies either within or between years. they are powerful forces that operate at a global level. nevertheless it is not yet clear whether their patterns are significantly altered by global warming. what we can be sure of is that global warming - expressed through higher sea and land surface temperatures is affecting their outcomes, increasing the incidence and severity of the droughts, floods and other extreme weather events that they produce. the intertropical convergence zone (itcz) the itcz lies at the heart of the shifting seasonal patterns of rainfall north and south of the equator. intense solar heating at the equator causes the sea surface to warm and the air above to rise leaving behind a low-pressure area, the itcz, known for centuries by sailors as the doldrums the rising warm, moist air results in heavy rainfall. over the oceans the itcz remains more or less at the equator but over land it moves north and south following the seasonal tilting of the globe towards the sun (figure 2.1). variation in its location results in the alternation of wet and dry seasons in the tropics. most important, the movement of the itcz affects rainfall in southern africa and the sahel of western africa (see figure 1.1 above), particularly vulnerable regions because they have only one rainfall season each year. when the itcz does not migrate as far south as usual, droughts can occur in southern africa; when it migrates further north than usual it brings heavy rain and floods to the sahel (as happened in 2007).
What does table 17.5 present?
table 17.5 presents the typical range of resultant values of the coefficient kb, for facultative and maturation ponds
How can values outside the typical range be calculated?
values outside the typical ranges may be calculated using the methodologies in sections 17.3.4 and 17.3.5
Did Yanez (1993) think the values were accurate?
according to yanez (1993) these values are overestimated, and the values of th to be adopted should be in the range of 1.07 (7% increase in kb for an increase of 1*c in the temperature
as a summary of all these considerations, table 17.5 presents the typical range of resultant values of the coefficient kb, for facultative and maturation ponds, according to the dispersed-flow and complete-mix hydraulic regimes. values outside the typical ranges may be calculated using the methodologies in sections 17.3.4 and 17.3.5.itcanbeobservedthattherangesofkb fordispersedflowaremuchnarrower than those for complete mix, indicating a greater reliability in their estimation. for other temperatures, kb can be corrected by the formula: kbt kb20. th(t - 20) (17.8) where: th temperature coefficient thevaluesof th alsovary,accordingtotheliterature.veryhighvalues( th 1 19) were reported by marais (1974). however, according to yanez (1993) these values are overestimated, and the values of th to be adopted should be in the range of 1.07 (7% increase in kb for an increase of 1*c in the temperature).
what suffers damage as a result of flooding and water logging?
water supply, sanitation, solid waste management, sewage management, electricity and gas supplies and telecommunications
how does water become contaminated?
water becomes contaminated in the supply pipes as many of these are old and damaged and leak
what was the estimate the total cost to repair and to rehabilitate the damage to the sewerage system after the 1998 flood ?
more than us$ 9 million
water supply, sanitation, solid waste management, sewage management, electricity and gas supplies and telecommunications all suffer damage as a result of fl ooding and waterlogging. for example, water becomes contaminated in the supply pipes as many of these are old and damaged and leak (box 2). both dhaka city corporation and dhaka water supply and sewerage authority fail to manage the solid waste and sewerage network, and it was estimated that the total cost to repair and rehabilitate the damage to the sewerage system after the 1998 fl ood was more than us$ 9 million.(18) another estimate calculates the total damage to the
Risk increases after which age bracket?
there appears to be a general increase in risk above middle age
What leads to more childrens hospital admissions during hot weather?
hospital admissions in children increase in hot weather, primarily as a result of injuries associated with playing outside
dehydration due to reduced food and liquid uptake or intestinal problems. <s121>* use of diuretics or alcohol abuse. <s121>* use of other drugs that affect thermoregulation (e.g. neuroleptics). <s121>* previous heat illness, low fitness, obesity, sleep deprivation, long-term high-level exercise and protective clothing. both individualand population-level epidemiological studies provide strong and consistent evidence that age is an important factor for heatand cold-related mortality. there appears to be a general increase in risk above middle age. 45,46 elderly people in institutions, such as residential care homes, are also vulnerable to heat-related illness and death. 46,47 there is some evidence that mortality in hospital inpatients is also affected by heatwaves. 48 many hospitals and care homes are still without space cooling in the uk and many have unshaded southand west-facing windows. there is currently little evidence for heat effects on mortality in young age groups (under 15 years) in european populations, as the underlying mortality in this age group is very low. there is anecdotal evidence of heat deaths caused by children being left in cars on hot days. children are more prone to dehydration owing to the relatively high volume of fluid in their bodies compared to an adult. hospital admissions in children increase in hot weather, primarily as a result of injuries associated with playing outside. 49 epidemiological studies from the usa have identified several socio-economic factors that affect heat-related mortality: 50
What is some general information about the survey?
the survey was titled the world business environment survey (wbes) and was conducted by the world bank in cooperation with the european bank for reconstruction and development (ebrd), the international development bank, and harvard university
How wide was the scope of the conducted survey?
a common questionnaire was used in all the 80 countries and one territory sampled so that all the data collected could be pooled and handled altogether
What topic were the questions in the survey concerning?
there were basic questions that elicited subjective views while other questions focused on quantitative estimates of the costs of doing business, i.e., the amount paid for bribes, the number of business days lost because of power interruptions and strikes
ii the book is organized as follows. chapter 1, "background, approach, and sampling," describes the intent and framework of data collection. the survey was titled the world business environment survey (wbes) and was conducted by the world bank in cooperation with the european bank for reconstruction and development (ebrd), the international development bank, and harvard university. a common questionnaire was used in all the 80 countries and one territory sampled so that all the data collected could be pooled and handled altogether. of the 80 sampled countries, nine were developed; all the rest were developing countries. the median number of enterprises sampled per country was around 100, the maximum being 525 for russia and the minimum 50 for bangladesh and belize. interviews of enterprises engaged in manufacturing or services were undertaken for the most part by consulting firms hired for that purpose. in most cases sectoral composition, size, ownership (foreign or local), exporting, and location were taken into account for stratified random sampling. this seemed to avoid at least extreme disparities between sample and population in the composition of firms. there were basic questions that elicited subjective views while other questions focused on quantitative estimates of the costs of doing business, i.e., the amount paid for bribes, the number of business days lost because of power interruptions and strikes. the above is followed by a description of the enterprises sampled in the chapter. eighty percent of them were small and medium-sized enterprises with an almost equal proportion of small enterprises (50 or fewer employees) to medium-sized enterprises (51-500 employees). roughly a third of the sampled firms were involved in exporting. firm ownership was mainly domestic and private, although there were regional variations. an average of 18 percent of the sampled firms had holdings or operations in other countries (see tables 1.4- 1.6 of the book). chapters 2 and 3 describe the general characteristics of investment climate by region and firm size. the former deals with business environment constraints while the latter delves into the quality of public services. one of the most interesting findings of the two chapters is that the major constraints that firms perceive on their business differ by region. firms in relatively high-income regions, i.e., oecd countries, central and eastern europe, the cis, and latin american and caribbean countries, are likely to feel that taxes and regulations are the most serious constraints on business, whereas those in low-income regions, i.e., south asia, sub-saharan africa, and
What is the single most important factor keeping low-carbon projects from finding investors?
whether real or perceived, risk
What do some public and private organizations already do to address risks?
dedicated instruments that directly address specific risks and broader or more diffused instruments that address multiple risks at once
What is still remaining on the sidelines of climate finance?
institutional investor assets
to-date, some of the largest pools of capital, such as institutional investor assets (see section 3.2.3), remain on the side lines of climate finance. one possible solution to increase actors' green investment appetite is to address risk. whether real or perceived, risk is the single most important factor keeping promising low-carbon, climate-resilient projects from finding investors. cpi recently categoriz e d the risks most associated with low-carbon infrastructure projects, matched them with available risk instruments, and identified where gaps between the supply and demand for risk mitigation continue to impede investment.53 while most of these risks are not unique to green investments, particular aspects of both low-carbon and climate-resilient investments frequently increase the perception of risk. in the absence of specific measures to address these perceived risks, these investments fall outside most investors' "comfort zone." a variety of public and private organizations already offer policies and instruments that attempt to cover risks related to low-carbon, climate-resilient investments, including both dedicated instruments that directly address specific risks and broader or more diffused instruments that address multiple risks at once.54 however, major methodological difficulties make it complicated to capture a meaningful value for risk instruments. quantifying future commitments related to risk instruments requires tracking potential future amounts that may be required to pay for things other than investment costs (e.g. payments for loan defaults). calculating these values goes beyond actual flows of climate finance and carries with it the risk of double counting.55 furthermore, a potential gap exists between what institutions report when offering risk instruments (such as the face value of a full or a partial risk guarantee, the premium collected on such instruments, or corresponding accounting provisions) and the actual amount that may be spent in the future. in addition, some institutions do not monitor the value of guarantees related to climate finance at all. lastly, guarantees are only exercised in particular circumstances, and there
Following the text above what is the purpose of Schellnhuber et al. 2006?
the purpose of this paper is to examine the assumptions that underlie current notions of limits to adaptation and the associated concept of thresholds
Reading the text what is the suggestion of important policy discourse, explicit for example in the policy position of the European Union?
an important policy discourse, explicit for example in the policy position of the european union, suggests that such a threshold is 2*c of global warming above pre-industrial levels
schellnhuber et al. 2006 ), stern 2007 and schneider et al. 2007 are three recent high profile reviews which have followed this line of reasoning. an important policy discourse, explicit for example in the policy position of the european union, suggests that such a threshold is 2*c of global warming above pre-industrial levels. this target is in effect chosen to induce urgent action, given the high likelihood that this threshold will be crossed in coming decades (schellnhuber et al. 2006 ). the purpose of this paper is to examine the assumptions that underlie current notions of limits to adaptation and the associated concept of thresholds. we review underlying assumptions and empirical evidence from a range of perspectives, contending that many previous analyses have considered adaptation from narrower standpoints: predominantly ecological, physical, economic or technical. we put forward our case by articulating four propositions around ethics, knowledge, risk and
Mitigation has a lower or higher effectiveness on near-term climatic demage?
mitigation has indeed a lower effectiveness especially on near-term climatic damage
adaptation can offer a fundamental contribution to what?
damage reduction either in absolute term or considering the rapidity through which adaptation benefits can be grasped
what sensitivity analyses show?
that each time future damages increase, cost effectiveness of mitigation is found to increase respect to adaptation
mitigation has indeed a lower effectiveness especially on near-term climatic damage therefore it does little to decrease the need to adapt. on the contrary, adaptation lowers considerably that damage and thus induces a more appreciable decrease in abatement effort. this results is also found by de bruin et al. (2007) and echoes the finding of tol (2007) in the context of sea-level rise. the third message of the exercise is that adaptation can offer a fundamental contribution to damage reduction either in absolute term or considering the rapidity through which adaptation benefits can be grasped. these two characteristics make adaptation an important policy option that asks to be necessarily included in any policy or scientific analysis concerning climate change. however this requires to invest massively on adaptation and to plan it with some advance anyway as economic inertia, albeit weaker than the environmental one, has to be taken into account. finally sensitivity analyses show that each time future damages increase, cost effectiveness of mitigation is found to increase respect to adaptation; the opposite occurs when (sufficiently) nearterm
What is comparable to the time-scale offered by recognition of the precession cycle ca 20 ka?
recognition of the precession cycle ca 20 ka) offers a time-scale comparable with that achieved in the glacial epochs of the tertiary
What can unrecognized stratigraphic gaps and condensed sections cause and lead to?
stratigraphic gaps and condensed sections, if unrecognized, can cause gradual geochemical changes to appear rapid, and lead to erroneous interpretations
What were the noted attributes of the early part of the Toarcian stage of the Jurassic?
the early part of the toarcian stage of the jurassic, an interval of time much investigated chemostratigraphically in recent years, and for which there exists a considerable amount of palaeoclimatic data
rapid climate change in the greenhouse world 1889 studies of jurassic-cretaceous cyclic shelf and pelagic sediments in many outcrops worldwide and in many deep-sea cores (see, for example, fischer 1986; gale et al 1999; herbert 1999; hinnov park 1999; weedon et al 1999). recognition of the precession cycle ca 20 ka) offers a time-scale comparable with that achieved in the glacial epochs of the tertiary. another means of measuring sedimentary rate in marine sediments derives from determinations of helium isotopes in pelagic sediments. such sediments have unusually high3he/4he ratios related to the input into the oceans of micro-meteoritic interplanetary dust particles (ozima et al 1984). the assumption that the cosmic input is constant through time can be checked by normalization to the3he concentration and calibrating the isotopic data against a section for which the mass accumulation rates of sediment are independently known (marcantonio et al 1995, 1996). studies show that the assumption of constant accumulation rates of extraterrestrial3he is broadly correct, at least over time-scales of thousands of years, and such data can hence be applied to sediments that contain evidence of rapid climate change (farley eltgroth 2003). finally, varved sediments, if a convincing case can be made for their interpretation as annual, potentially offer resolution on the subdecadal scale. some organic-rich mesozoic sediments have been interpreted in this light (see, for example, cope 1998), a conclusion in general accord with biostratigraphical data, but there is no reliable way of confirming the suggested durations. all the above techniques may be used to shed light on the duration of local and global change but in many instances the sequences that contain encoded climatic data are not amenable to dating at the level of resolution required to allow cross-comparison of datasets from different areas and unambiguously separate causes and effects. furthermore, stratigraphic gaps and condensed sections, if unrecognized, can cause gradual geochemical changes to appear rapid, and lead to erroneous interpretations. here i adopt the approach of taking, as a model, a well-constrained period of rapid environmental change during the tertiary and then identify similar but less well chronologically constrained events in mesozoic time. particular attention is paid to the early part of the toarcian stage of the jurassic, an interval of time much investigated chemostratigraphically in recent years, and for which there exists a considerable amount of palaeoclimatic data.
How do K2 can be determined?
the value of the coefficient k2 can be determined through statistical methods
Write the equation of K2?
these methods are based on regression analysis, using either the original equation 3.10
How many methodes for estimating the value of the coefficient K2 ?
there are three methods for estimating the value of the coefficient k2 in the river under study
in a sample of deoxygenated water, the value of the coefficient k2 can be determined through statistical methods. these methods are based on regression analysis, using either the original equation 3.10, or some logarithmic transformation of it. the input data are the do values at various times t. the output data are the saturation concentration cs and the coefficient k2. in a water body, however, the experimental determination of k2 is very complex, being outside the scope of the present text. the value of the coefficient k2 has a larger influence on the results of the do balance than the coefficient k1, because of the fact that the ranges of variation of k1 are narrower. there are three methods for estimating the value of the coefficient k2 in the river under study:
Where do major effects on climate change occur?
effects were greatest in areas with high temperatures
we have presented here the first empirical synthesis to quantify and test for interacting effects among current climate, climatic change and habitat loss on terrestrial biological populations at a global scale. our empirical approach demonstrates that habitat loss and fragmentation effects were greatest where maximum temperature of warmest month was highest (i.e. effects were greatest in areas with high temperatures). conversely, habitat loss and fragmentation effects were lowest in areas where precipitation has increased most (i.e. smaller effects occurred in areas where average rainfall has increased over time than in areas where rainfall has decreased). these were the two most important variables, with mean temperature change as the third. therefore, both current climate (i.e. maximum temperature) and climate change (i.e. precipitation change) appear to be key determinants of habitat loss and fragmentation effects on terrestrial biodiversity.
What causes the above-ground carbon store in South America to reduce by 70 gigatonnes of carbon?
amazonian forest dieback
Why is the global soil carbon store reduced by 150 GtC?
due to enhanced soil respiration under rising temperatures
Why some of the loss of soil in Amazonia will be due to forest dieback itself?
due to reduced input of carbon from the forest, and part would be due to additional warming arising by biogeophysical feedbacks on local surface temperatures
in ccycle, the amazonian forest dieback causes the above-ground carbon store in south america to reduce by 70 gigatonnes of carbon (gtc), limiting the increase in global vegetation carbon to 60 gtc. the global soil carbon store is reduced by 150 gtc (fig. 10), mainly due to enhanced soil respiration under rising temperatures. as well as leading to forest dieback, the inclusion of climate change in ccycle means that the large flux of carbon into soils via increased npp is more than offset by an increase in soil respiration under higher temperatures. this contrasts with the carbon store changes projected by cnorad with no enhanced greenhouse effect. cnorad projects an uptake of 60 gtc in south american vegetation, and a total uptake of 220 gtc in global vegetation and 400 gtc in global soils when the effects of climate change on the carbon cycle are neglected (fig. 10). therefore, relative to the increased carbon stores in cnorad, the total terrestrial carbon deficit is 710 gtc. of this, 130 gtc of the total deficit is due to the amazonian forests dying back instead of becoming more productive. 550 gtc of the total deficit is due to a 150 gtc release of global soil carbon, rather than a 400 gtc uptake. while most of the release of soil carbon globally is due to enhanced soil respiration under greenhouse warming, some of the loss of soil carbon in amazonia will be due to forest dieback itself. part of this will be due to reduced input of carbon from the forest, and part would be due to additional warming arising by biogeophysical feedbacks on local surface temperatures. precise
What causes the predominance of endogenous respiration with greater self oxidation of the cellular material?
at higher sludge ages there is the predominance of endogenous respiration with a greater self-oxidation of the cellular material
Is the ratio of Xb/Xv higher or lower based on the sludge age?
the higher the sludge age, the lower the ratio xb/xv
as already seen, the total suspended solids are composed by an inorganic (fixed) fraction (xi) and an organic (volatile) fraction (xv): x xi xv (9.67) on the other hand, another division should still be established, because not all the volatile suspended solids are biodegradable. in the volatile solids, there is a fraction, which is non-biodegradable (inert) (xnb), resulting from residues of endogenous respiration, and a biodegradable fraction (xb). thus: xv xnb xb (9.68) the sludge recirculation leads to an accumulation of the inorganic fraction xi, as well as the non-biodegradable fraction xnb in the system, since they are not affected by the biological treatment. the higher the sludge age, the lower the ratio xb/xv. this can be understood by the fact that at higher sludge ages there is the predominance of endogenous respiration with a greater self-oxidation of the cellular material, that is, stabilisation of the sludge the volatile solids shortly after being produced thc 0) are approximately 20% inert and 80% biodegradable. with their stay in the reactor thc 0), the ratio xb/xv decreases. the ratio xb/xv fb) can be expressed as (eckenfelder, 1989): fb f' b
What did the observed patterns of loss of range of the species show? They exhibited distinct patterns according to the functional types and phytogeographic classes analyzed
the observed patterns of species range loss (assuming no dispersal ability) and range expansion (assuming unlimited migration) displayed distinct patterns according to the functional types and phytogeographical classes analysed
Regarding the loss of species distribution, how many groups can be identified? 2 groups
with regard to species range loss, two groups could be discerned
What does the first group cover? Covers boreal (deciduous and broad-leaved conifer), Iberian (deciduous and perennial broad-leaved) species
the first group, which encompasses boreal (both broadleaved deciduous and coniferous), iberian (both broadleaved deciduous and evergreen), mountain (both broadleaved deciduous and deciduous and evergreen coniferous) and temperate
the observed patterns of species range loss (assuming no dispersal ability) and range expansion (assuming unlimited migration) displayed distinct patterns according to the functional types and phytogeographical classes analysed (fig. 1). with regard to species range loss, two groups could be discerned. the first group, which encompasses boreal (both broadleaved deciduous and coniferous), iberian (both broadleaved deciduous and evergreen), mountain (both broadleaved deciduous and deciduous and evergreen coniferous) and temperate (both broadleaved evergreen and coniferous) species, was predicted to lose on average 60% of the current species ranges. the second group consisting of mediterranean and temperate broadleaved deciduous species did not show consistent patterns. with regard to species expansions, two groups were identified. the first included only mediterranean trees and showed greater range expansions (ranging from 40 to 140%) but with a large variation around the mean. the other group included all of the remaining species with small range expansions (< 50%) and low variability. current and future (no and unlimited dispersal) species richness maps by functional type highlighted the northwards shift of deciduous communities (fig. 2). assuming no dispersal, a remarkable decrease in the richness of deciduous species was shown in temperate regions and mountains. evergreen species richness was also predicted to drop mainly to the south of iberian peninsula; however, this effect may not in fact be real as it could be due to the lack of information on the climatic preferences of the northern african ranges of these species (thuiller
What have the BASIC group insisted?
brazil, south africa, india and china (the so-called basic group) have insisted that developed country parties agree to a second commitment period under kyoto, but have opposed the adoption of a new legal agreement addressing their own emissions
In which year was the AWG-LCA meant to conclude?
the negotiation by the awg-lca of a post-2012 climate change regime was supposed to conclude in 2009 at the copenhagen conference of the parties (cop
What would the negotiation of a new legal agreement provide?
the negotiation of a new legal agreement that would be more comprehensive in coverage, including the united states and major developing countries such as china, india and brazil
bodansky the copenhagen conference: a post mortem i and non-annex i parties, they are unwilling to give that up now, by replacing kyoto with a new legal instrument. but developing countries differ in their views about the outcome of the convention track. brazil, south africa, india and china (the so-called basic group) have insisted that developed country parties agree to a second commitment period under kyoto, but have opposed the adoption of a new legal agreement addressing their own emissions. in contrast, some small island states support, as a complement to kyoto, the negotiation of a new legal agreement that would be more comprehensive in coverage, including the united states and major developing countries such as china, india and brazil. the copenhagen conference under the terms of the bali action plan, the negotiation by the awg-lca of a post-2012 climate change regime was supposed to conclude in 2009 at the copenhagen conference of the parties (cop). this 1
How were Egan's (Smythe, 2000) and Monsanto efforts to commercialize genetically modified food and seeds? Efforts have failed
egan (smythe, 2000), and monsanto's efforts to commercialize genetically modified food and seeds have faltered
What was the cause of the wave of environmental activism in the US and Europe that started in the 1960s and 1970s? Forced companies to develop environmental management techniques that mitigated environmental impacts
more broadly, the wave of environmental activism in the usa and europe that began in 1960s and 1970s has forced companies to develop techniques of environmental management that ameliorate the more egregious environmental impacts of their business operations
What do these cases suggest? They suggest that corporate power is restricted and challenged by environmental, labor and other social forces
these cases suggest that corporate power is constrained and contested by environmental, labour, and other social forces
egan (smythe, 2000), and monsanto's efforts to commercialize genetically modified food and seeds have faltered (eichenwald et al., 2001). more broadly, the wave of environmental activism in the usa and europe that began in 1960s and 1970s has forced companies to develop techniques of environmental management that ameliorate the more egregious environmental impacts of their business operations, and to reconstruct themselves as responsible stewards of the environment (buttel, 1998; levy, 1997). these cases suggest that corporate power is constrained and contested by environmental, labour, and other social forces. the prospect of mandatory curbs on production and use of fossil fuels to reduce the impact of greenhouse gases (ghg) on the earth's climate system poses a serious economic threat to corporate actors across a wide range of industries. newell and paterson (1998, p. 682) conclude that 'when the centrality of fossil fuels in producing global warming is combined with the centrality of fossil energy in industrial economies, it becomes clear that the fundamental interests of major sectors of those economies are threatened by proposals to limit greenhouse gas emissions.' the fossil fuel industry's initial response to this threat was aggressive and unsurprising. us-based companies in the coal, oil, automobile, utility, and chemicals industries formed industry associations, lobbied politicians, challenged the science of climate change, and pointed to the high costs of reducing emissions. despite the apparent success of these efforts in influencing us policy, by 1998 industry appeared to be changing its stance toward a more accommodative position and companies were beginning to invest substantial amounts in low-emission technologies. no obvious dramatic scientific, technological, or regulatory developments can account for these changes; the prospects for ratification in the us senate of the 1997 kyoto protocol, which would commit the usa to a 7 per cent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 levels, were slim even before the ascendancy of the bush administration in november 2000. the existing literature on corporate political strategy
What were the trends when reverse varience was used from 2005 to 1935?
when we regenerated the future climate data using the reverse variance from 2005 to 1935 the trends were all positive (+7.25 kg/ha/year to +21.71 kg/ha/year
What were the median negative changes when reverse varience was used?
the median negative changes were nearly identical to the analyses using the historical variance from 1935 to 2005
What does the paper suggest about the wheat yield at Birchip in north-western Victoria?
this paper suggests that the projected climate change at birchip in north-western victoria will reduce wheat yields
it is tempting to view the negative yield trends of the future scenarios as likely real trends because of the expected rising temperature and radiation changes and declining rainfall (see negative slopes  5.86 kg/ha/year to  15.25 kg/ha/year in fig. 6 ). however, when we regenerated the future climate data using the reverse variance from 2005 to 1935 the trends were all positive (+7.25 kg/ha/year to +21.71 kg/ha/year), but the median negative changes were nearly identical to the analyses using the historical variance from 1935 to 2005 fig. 7 ). despite experiencing the historical or reverse historical variance in the future climate scenarios we conclude similar median crop yield declines (about 25-29% from current level) to occur at birchip over the next 70 years without any genetic or agronomic improvement. 4. discussion this paper suggests that the projected climate change at birchip in north-western victoria will reduce wheat yields. there are a number of reasons why climate change may influence yields both positively and negatively. firstly, an increase in temperature will shorten the phenological phases. this will reduce the time for light and water capture and will reduce water and light use. a simultaneous anticipated decrease
what is the output for output for the simulation of extreme river flows 489 ERA40-driven run?
esampling of regional climate model output for the simulation of extreme river flows 489 era40-driven run, whereas the mean wet-day amount is rather well preserved
what is the cause of bias in r1?
this bias is mainly due to the inability of racmo to reproduce the relatively large values of r1 for the french part of the basin r1 0.40 in the winter halfyear, compared to r1 0.35 for the belgian part in the winter half-year
How RACMO is related to  the bias in r1 ?
the differences between the hadam3h-driven and era40driven runs are small, suggesting that the bias is mainly an artefact of racmo
resampling of regional climate model output for the simulation of extreme river flows 489 era40-driven run, whereas the mean wet-day amount is rather well preserved. there are also too many wet days in the summer half-year in both racmo simulations. in the hadam3h-driven run the lag 1 autocorrelation coefficient r1 of daily precipitation is slightly underestimated in both seasons. the bias in r1 is even somewhat larger in the era40-driven run. this bias is mainly due to the inability of racmo to reproduce the relatively large values of r1 for the french part of the basin r1 0.40 in the winter halfyear, compared to r1 0.35 for the belgian part in the winter half-year). the correlation rs between the precipitation amounts in different subbasins is higher than observed in both runs, in the summer as well as the winter half-year. the differences between the hadam3h-driven and era40driven runs are small, suggesting that the bias is mainly an artefact of racmo.
What defines which types of tropical clouds are formed?
in the tropics, the relative occurrence of the different cloud types strongly depends on the large-scale atmospheric circulation
The methodology developed allowed the researchers to do what?
to a first approximation, this methodology allows us to segregate regimes of deep convection and upper-level cloud tops from regimes of shallow convection and low-level cloud tops (figure 1
What was the most prevalent type of cloud over the tropical oceans?
marine boundary layer (mbl) clouds, topped by the low-level trade inversion, constitute the most prevalent cloudiness in these regimes norris 1998b; m. c. wyant et al., a comparison of tropical cloud properties and responses in gcms using mid-tropospheric vertical velocity, submitted to climate dynamics 2005
in the tropics, the relative occurrence of the different cloud types strongly depends on the large-scale atmospheric circulation. by using the monthly-mean mid-tropospheric (500 hpa) vertical pressure velocity w as a proxy for largescale rising w 0) or sinking w 0) motions, we decompose the large-scale tropical circulation as a series of dynamical regimes defined from w (bins of 5 hpa/d), and we compute composites of climate variables in these regimes bony et al. 2004]. to a first approximation, this methodology allows us to segregate regimes of deep convection and upper-level cloud tops from regimes of shallow convection and low-level cloud tops (figure 1). the frequency distribution pw of the different dynamical regimes shows that situations of largescale subsidence are by far the most frequent over tropical oceans. these situations primarily occur over the trade winds and at the eastern side of the ocean basins (not shown). marine boundary layer (mbl) clouds, topped by the low-level trade inversion, constitute the most prevalent cloudiness in these regimes norris 1998b; m. c. wyant et al., a comparison of tropical cloud properties and responses in gcms using mid-tropospheric vertical velocity, submitted to climate dynamics 2005]. since the dynamics is partly tied to the sst distribution, regional changes in crf may be related to changes in both the large-scale flow and local thermodynamic conditions. to better isolate the influence on crf of a change in surface or boundary-layer conditions, we examine the temporal co-variation of crf and sst anomalies under specified dynamical conditions.
According to the survey, what did 58% of the individuals indicate?
only 22% of those whose scores placed them to the "right" of the mean indicated that they believed that, and 58% of them indicated that they did not believe there was "solid evidence that the average temperature on earth has been getting warmer over the past few decades" (figure 5
What does the 'new study' say about an overwhelming majority of Americans?
a new study," their press releases announce, show that "an overwhelming majority of americans"--"blue state and red ones alike," enough "to swing" an upcoming presidential election etc.-- "support taking action" immediately to combat global warming
What kind of questions do advocacy groups pose in their poll surveys?
but when they do, researchers note that the questions posed were likely to confuse, mislead, or herd the survey respondents toward desired answers (kohut, 2010
not surprisingly--indeed, as a matter of simple logic--there is a comparably high degree of coherence between "belief in climate change" and political outlooks. in this sample, some 75% of the individuals whose scores placed them below, or to the "left" of, the mean on the left_right political outlook scale indicated that they believe human activity is the primary source of global warming. only 22% of those whose scores placed them to the "right" of the mean indicated that they believed that, and 58% of them indicated that they did not believe there was "solid evidence that the average temperature on earth has been getting warmer over the past few decades" (figure 5). these figures accord with ones consistently reported by scholars and public opinion research centers for over a decade (e.g., silver, 2013). so we could form an even better scale a 5 0.86)--an even more discerning, one-dimensional measure of the disposition that orients individuals with respect to disputed political issues (kahan, 2014a)--by simply combining responses to the global-warming ism, the "belief in" global-warming measure, and the two political outlook items (liberal-conservative ideology and partisan selfidentification). from a psychometric perspective, all four of these items can be viewed as measuring the same thing a latent (unobserved) disposition that causes different groups of people to adopt coherent sets of opposing stances on political matters (devellis, 2012). nevertheless, advocacy groups regularly report polls that paint a very different picture. "a new study," their press releases announce, show that "an overwhelming majority of americans"--"blue state and red ones alike," enough "to swing" an upcoming presidential election etc.-- "support taking action" immediately to combat global warming. the producers of such polls do not always release information about the survey's wording or the (mysteriously characterized) methods used to analyze them (e.g., koch, 2013). but when they do, researchers note that the questions posed were likely to confuse, mislead, or herd the survey respondents toward desired answers (kohut, 2010). given the source of these surveys, one could infer that they reflect an advocacy strategy aimed at fostering "overwhelming majority support" for "action on climate change" by insisting that such support already exists. if so, the continued generation of these surveys itself displays determined
What was the confidence based on this data?
th us, we were confi dent (contra caradonna et al., 2014 ), that we could fi t a common climate model to these data as a whole, combining herbarium data to fi ll the gaps in the fi eld observational data (black lines in fig. 2 
What has been done to minimize the effects of outliers?
to minimize eff ects of outliers, however, we fi t this common slope using robust linear models venables and ripley, 2002 ). overall, our results support a previous study that has looked at the fidelity of herbarium records with respect to field observations, but for a greatly reduced number of species and phylogenetic
th e paired t test comparing the slopes of the species-specifi c regression lines for observed and herbarium data shown in fig. 2 found no significant differences t18= 0.45, p 0.65). although the slopes of observed and herbarium data do not fall on a 1:1 line fig. 3 ), the y -intercept of the plot, -2.8 d, suggests that observed fi rst fl owering dates are, on average, just under 3 d earlier than estimated earliest fl owering date of herbarium specimens. th us, we were confi dent (contra caradonna et al., 2014 ), that we could fi t a common climate model to these data as a whole, combining herbarium data to fi ll the gaps in the fi eld observational data (black lines in fig. 2 ). to minimize eff ects of outliers, however, we fi t this common slope using robust linear models venables and ripley, 2002 ). overall, our results support a previous study that has looked at the fidelity of herbarium records with respect to field observations, but for a greatly reduced number of species and phylogenetic
What do bold numbers denote?
bold numbers denote average values
What are the numbers bounded by?
they are bounded by the lowest and highest values that were assigned
What do the smaller numbers report?
the smaller numbers report individual responses for each of the 12 experts
climatic change fig. 8 experts' judgments of the relative importance of making progress in the 20 displayed research areas of climate research (in percent ). bold numbers denote average values. they are bounded by the lowest and highest values that were assigned. the smaller numbers report individual responses for each of the 12 experts. shading denotes different levels of allocation, as given in the legend climatic change fig. 9 experts' judgments concerning the allocation of a research budget of 500-million us dollars per year across the 20 areas of climate research. results are given in percentage of the total budget climatic change
What is the name of the mission in India that involves sustainable habitats?
national mission on sustainable habitat
What is the biggest impediment to mainstream adaptation planning in India?
the lack of understanding of the impacts of climate change
At what levels of society are adaptation interventions best implemented?
the local government or city level
urban adaptation planning has just started to build in india. the ministry has yet to implement the national mission on sustainable habitat, and interventions from other agencies with regard to the number of cities they are focusing on are negligible compared to the need to adapt. yet, the challenges to mainstream adaptation in cities that lie ahead are many. to spell out a few: * the biggest impediment is the lack of understanding of the impacts of climate change and the fact that adaptation interventions are best implemented at the local government or city level; * local governments usually fail to understand that planning for climate change impacts as well as environmental protection are
The authors?
the authors acknowledge the aspen global change institute (agci
The CMIP6 proposal presented here substantially draws?
the cmip6 proposal presented here substantially draws on conclusions from that workshop
The authors are the organizing?
the authors are the organizing committee for the agci summer session on planning for cmip6
the authors acknowledge the aspen global change institute (agci) for hosting a cmip6 planning workshop in august 2013 as part of its landmark summer interdisciplinary sessions. nasa, the national oceanic and atmospheric administration, the department of energy, and the national science foundation, as well as the international global change communities wcrp and the international geosphere biosphere programme, all provided support for the workshop. the cmip6 proposal presented here substantially draws on conclusions from that workshop, and the authors acknowledge contributions from, and discussions with, the agci workshop participants, as well as subsequent discussions at the wgcm meeting in october 2013 in victoria, canada, jointly held with analysis, integration and modeling of the earth system. a related workshop convened by the energy modeling forum is documented at http:// emf stanford .edu/ events/ series/ snowmass/. the authors are the organizing committee for the agci summer session on planning for cmip6.
For what reason governments are investing hundreds of millions dollars in ITS?
throughout the developed world, governments are investing hundreds of millions of dollars in its, with a view to improving mobility and safety and also reducing maintenance costs
What kind of weather-specific information system is primarily used to winter-maintenance decisions?
one example of a weather-specific information system is arwis (advanced road weather information systems), which is used primarily for winter-maintenance decisions
Why is it important to develop information technologies in a perspective of clime change?
from a climate change perspective, there is a need to help steer the development and implementation of information technologies so that mobility and safety benefits will be maximized under future, as well as current, conditions
transportation managers use advisory, control and treatment strategies to mitigate environmental impacts on roadways. each of these requires detailed site-specific information, often in real time. information on atmospheric and other physical conditions may be integrated with intelligent transport systems (its), such as automated trafficcontrol and traveller-advisory systems, to address transportation challenges. throughout the developed world, governments are investing hundreds of millions of dollars in its, with a view to improving mobility and safety and also reducing maintenance costs. one example of a weather-specific information system is arwis (advanced road weather information systems), which is used primarily for winter-maintenance decisions. for example, the ontario ministry of transportation uses information from 39 arwis monitoring stations to monitor and predict road and weather conditions, and reduce the use of salt on roads.(72)another example is the use of the automated identification system (ais) for navigation, which is used to transmit information between ships and between the shore and ships. this information can include data on water levels, wind speed and ice conditions, as well as safetyrelated messages (e.g., reference 73). from a climate change perspective, there is a need to help steer the development and implementation of information technologies so that mobility and safety benefits will be maximized under future, as well as current, conditions.
What does adaptation involve?
in many cases, adaptation involves a mix of ex-ante and expost responses
where you can view the earnings?
limate adaptation can be visualized as a process that tries to increase the payoffs in the future, possibly at the expense of increased costs and lower returns in the short run
a critical part of the adaptation decision-making process is when to adapt, before the effects are evident, or subsequent to their impacts. in many cases, adaptation involves a mix of ex-ante and expost responses. however, adaptation is not costless and deciding when to adapt involves trade-offs between the present and the future and consideration of the risk and returns of adaptation investments. a framework to help understand these trade-offs is presented in figure 5 using a common metric that monetizes costs, benefits and also risks. on the horizontal axis is the monetary loss or gain in terms of the net present value from adaptation over the long-run that may involve a planning period of several decades. the vertical axis represents the monetary loss or gain in net present value terms from adaptation in the short-run, typically no more than three to five years. the four parts to the decision box represents the inter-temporal payoffs. the two squares to the left of the line that bisects the box vertically represent actions that, over time, will generate a negative net present value while to the right are actions that will generate a positive net present value. the two squares below the line that bisects the box horizontally are actions that generate a positive net present value in the short run while the two quadrants above this line generate a negative present value. in terms of the inter-temporal trade-offs, climate adaptation can be visualized as a process that tries to increase the payoffs in the future, possibly at the expense of increased costs and lower returns in the short run.
What is another inadequacy in SRES?
lack of discussion surrounding details
How many giant oil fields does the world depends on significantly?
300
The 300 giant oil fields account to what percentage of world oil production?
60
another inadequacy in sres is the lack of discussion surrounding details. for oil, the world has a significant dependence on roughly 300 giant oil fields, accounting for 60% of world oil production 14 (hook et al., 2009). in comparison, there are 50-70 000 oil fields in the world. likewise, a significant fraction of the world oil supply is derived from relatively few countries, such as countries around the persian gulf. perturbations and real world dynamics cannot be captured by aggregated modelling approaches that only portray oil production as a global function or in four regions. consequently, the absence of details regarding future production in sres is problematic. optimistic assumptions are also placed on gas in sres (2000). to achieve the projected ten-fold increases in global gas production, astronomical investment must be made but this appears unlikely from available long-term policies and planning documents. for gas, methane hydrates are identified as the important long-term supplier in sres as earlier mentioned. in reality, exploitation of gas hydrates is still far from commercially feasible. beauchamp (2004) points out that, by any standard, gas hydrates will not come cheap - economically, energetically or environmentally. there appears to be more or less of a consensus about a global peaking of oil production before 2030 among analysts (ukerc, 2009). alas, the foundation of future oil supply used by sres (2000) is outdated and does not reflect the growing knowledge of the last decade. aggregated models and generalized assumptions appear questionable and should be clarified and reinforced to be considered realistic. currently, ipcc and sres (2000) seem far more optimistic about future oil production than the petroleum industry itself. this indeed is a peculiar standpoint.
How could governments assess the climate change problem?
requires that national governments embrace the idea that natural disasters are related to the particular societal context within which these events take place. in other words, those aff ected are in a position of risk as a consequence of a portfolio of economic, social, and political institutional factors that can and should be addressed by decision makers
How does the UN define the disaster risk reduction paradigm?
the broad development and application of policies, strategies and practices to minimise vulnerabilities and disaster risks throughout society
an eff ective assessment of the increasing climatechange-driven extreme events requires that national governments embrace the idea that natural disasters are related to the particular societal context within which these events take place. in other words, those aff ected are in a position of risk as a consequence of a portfolio of economic, social, and political institutional factors that can and should be addressed by decision makers.130 control of climate-change-related extreme events has to be achieved through developmental and humanitarian responses, and through increased preparedness and response that come from integrating the disaster risk reduction paradigm (defi ned by the un international strategy for disaster reduction as "the broad development and application of policies, strategies and practices to minimise vulnerabilities and disaster risks throughout society") with a nation's future development.108,111
What is the average estimated production has been used here show?
the average estimated production has been used here both to simplify intercomparison and because, while sharing inputs, the separate estimates disagree significantly with one another (to the extent that model-observation difference is comparable with the range of observational estimates; fig. 48
What does this prevents model phytoplankton from doing?
this prevents model phytoplankton from adapting to oligotrophic conditions when, in the real world, nutrient uptake kinetics are more plastic (e.g. smith et al., 2009
What does ocean models and MEDUSA-1.0 represent?
the representation of chlorophyll exhibits significant discrepancies with observations. medusa-2.0 shows much less pronounced seasonality, particularly at higher latitudes in the northern hemisphere, and spatial boundaries that are significantly more sharply defined and consistently lower "background" chlorophyll concentrations in the ocean gyres
returning to the surface ocean, figs. 10 and 11 compare medusa-2.0's simulated total chlorophyll (non-diatom plus diatom) to corresponding seawifs fields (note that a logarithmic colour scale is used to best represent the large range in ocean colour). not uncommonly for ocean models, and similarly to medusa-1.0, the representation of chlorophyll exhibits significant discrepancies with observations. medusa-2.0 shows much less pronounced seasonality, particularly at higher latitudes in the northern hemisphere, and spatial boundaries that are significantly more sharply defined and consistently lower "background" chlorophyll concentrations in the ocean gyres. while the latter regions are not productive areas of the ocean, they represent a significant fraction of its total area. this was also noted with medusa-1.0, and speculatively attributed to the assumption of geographically invariant nutrient kinetics. this prevents model phytoplankton from adapting to oligotrophic conditions when, in the real world, nutrient uptake kinetics are more plastic (e.g. smith et al., 2009). however, given the globally uniform parameterization of ecosystem actors in medusa, it may be difficult to resolve this deficiency without more fundamental changes to the model framework. for instance, the addition of further phytoplankton types with parameter values more "at home" in oligotroph conditions. figures 12 and 13 compare medusa's simulated total primary production (non-diatom plus diatom) to a simple average of the estimates of the vgpm, eppley-vgpm and cbpm models. the average estimated production has been used here both to simplify intercomparison and because, while sharing inputs, the separate estimates disagree significantly with one another (to the extent that model-observation difference is comparable with the range of observational estimates; fig. 48). in broad terms, medusa-2.0 captures some
What did Mjosa use RDA for?
mjosa, hobaek et al (2012) used rda to show that temperature exerted a significant influence on changes in diatom composition in the sediment record, but also pointed out that temperature is correlated with depth and time so that other age-related factors might be important
What do the authors argue?
the authors argue that the recovery is prevented either because n concentration remains high and/or because the lake is now warmer than in the past
What does FIg. 3 show?
as indicated by the trends in chlorophyll a in comparison with tp (fig. 3
for mjosa, hobaek et al (2012) used rda to show that temperature exerted a significant influence on changes in diatom composition in the sediment record, but also pointed out that temperature is correlated with depth and time so that other age-related factors might be important. however, the data from mjosa show that although tp has now been 24 24 reduced to reference levels (4 ug l-1) primary production remains relatively high, as indicated by the trends in chlorophyll a in comparison with tp (fig. 3), and the diatom flora has not yet returned to its composition during the reference period (pre-1950). the authors argue that the recovery is prevented either because n concentration remains high and/or because the lake is now warmer than in the past.
Explain whether tropical cyclones?
to test whether tropical cyclones could mix the upper tropical oceans enough to change the oceans' poleward heat transport, we constructed an experiment incorporating the dependencies derived in the previous sections
Define dissipated in the ocean?
the power dissipated in the oceans, which is the dot product of the surface stress and the surface ocean currents, grows with the cube of the wind speed, assuming that the currents in the upper ocean grow linearly with the wind
Define combining this with the result?
combining this with the results of emanuel and nolan (2004), we here first test a parameterization in which the aggregate storm mixing is a function of the sixth power of the potential intensity
to test whether tropical cyclones could mix the upper tropical oceans enough to change the oceans' poleward heat transport, we constructed an experiment incorporating the dependencies derived in the previous sections. storm mixing can vary with climate because storms' intensity, frequency, and lifetime depend on the climate state (emanuel 2005). the intensity of individual storms will be a function of local environmental conditions (emanuel et al. 2004), but emanuel (2000) found that when a large enough sample is considered, observed intensities are related directly to the theoretical upper bound, the maximum potential intensity (emanuel 1988). the potential intensity, which requires only sst and atmospheric temperature and humidity soundings for computation, can thus be used as a measure of how intensity should evolve with climate. very little is known about what governs storm frequency, but emanuel and nolan (2004) show that it might grow with the third power of potential intensity. the power dissipated in the oceans, which is the dot product of the surface stress and the surface ocean currents, grows with the cube of the wind speed, assuming that the currents in the upper ocean grow linearly with the wind. combining this with the results of emanuel and nolan (2004), we here first test a parameterization in which the aggregate storm mixing is a function of the sixth power of the potential intensity. thus, a far warmer climate in which the potential intensity increases by 20% could have a threefold increase in the annually averaged diapycnal diffusion in the upper oceans. we assume here that ocean mixing has two sources: a weak, omnipresent background value b and a contribution from transient tropical cyclones s, which represents the first term in (6). thus, the diffusion coefficient  will be the sum b  s. throughout the water column in middle and high latitudes and at depth in the tropics, s will be 0 and the background value, which we take to be 0.1 cm2s 1[as it was in our control and consistent with observations in the present climate, e.g., ledwell et al. (1998)], constitutes the total mixing. the storm contribution s scales with the potential intensity (pi) and is applied through the mixed layer ho) plus  h the depth given by (7):
Methane emissions come from what?
methane emissions come from a number of different sources, both natural and anthropogenic
human related emissions are?
one type of human related emissions arises from biogenic sources from agriculture and waste disposal, including enteric fermentation, animal and human wastes, rice paddies, biomass burning, and landfills. emissions also result from fossil fuel-related methane sources such as natural gas loss, coal mining, and the petroleum industry
Methane is emitted naturally by?
methane is emitted naturally by wetlands, termites, other wild ruminants, oceans, and hydrates
methane emissions come from a number of different sources, both natural and anthropogenic. one type of human related emissions arises from biogenic sources from agriculture and waste disposal, including enteric fermentation, animal and human wastes, rice paddies, biomass burning, and landfills. emissions also result from fossil fuel-related methane sources such as natural gas loss, coal mining, and the petroleum industry. methane is emitted naturally by wetlands, termites, other wild ruminants, oceans, and hydrates. based on recent estimates, current human-related biogenic and fossil fuel-related sources for methane are approximately 275 and 100 tgch r year 4 while total natural sources are around 160 tgch r year. 4
Which communities may be able to rapidly respond to changing environments?
soil microbial communities may be able to rapidly respond to changing environments in ways that change community structure and functioning
how problem related to microbial communities's feedback to climate change is resolved?
whether microbial communities can persistently feed back to climate change is still unknown. we overcame this problem by collecting microbial inocula at subfreezing conditions under eco2 and warming treatments in a semi-arid grassland field experiment
What is SOM?
microbes from eco2 exhibited an increased ability to decompose soil organic matter (som) compared with those from ambient co2 plots, and microbes from warmed plots exhibited increased thermal sensitivity for respiration
soil microbial communities may be able to rapidly respond to changing environments in ways that change community structure and functioning, which could affect climate - carbon feedbacks. however, detecting microbial feedbacks to elevated co2 (eco2) or warming is hampered by concurrent changes in substrate availability and plant responses. whether microbial communities can persistently feed back to climate change is still unknown. we overcame this problem by collecting microbial inocula at subfreezing conditions under eco2 and warming treatments in a semi-arid grassland field experiment. the inoculant was incubated in a sterilised soil medium at constant conditions for 30 days. microbes from eco2 exhibited an increased ability to decompose soil organic matter (som) compared with those from ambient co2 plots, and microbes from warmed plots exhibited increased thermal sensitivity for respiration. microbes from the combined eco2 and warming plots had consistently enhanced microbial decomposition activity and thermal sensitivity. these persistent positive feedbacks of soil microbial communities to eco2 and warming may therefore stimulate soil c loss. keywords climate change, climate - carbon feedback, common garden experiment, elevated co2, enzyme stoichiometry, microbial community, soil decomposition, temperature sensitivity.
what is the suggestion of this study ?
we suggest that within-year climatic variability, particularly rainfall seasonality, is the most significant variable explaining differences in bird abundance in upland tropical rainforest in australia
what are the hypothesis?
our hypothesis is that in areas with higher levels of temporal variability in rainfall, there is a greater probability of more frequent and/or more severe bottlenecks in productivity of resources (particularly insects and fruit
what do the seasonal bottlenecks in available resources do?
the seasonal bottlenecks in available resources limit the population density of birds with less seasonal areas supporting more individuals
we suggest that within-year climatic variability, particularly rainfall seasonality, is the most significant variable explaining differences in bird abundance in upland tropical rainforest in australia. our hypothesis is that in areas with higher levels of temporal variability in rainfall, there is a greater probability of more frequent and/or more severe bottlenecks in productivity of resources (particularly insects and fruit). the seasonal bottlenecks in available resources limit the population density of birds with less seasonal areas supporting more individuals. the patterns support the species-energy hypothesis and suggest that temporal bottlenecks in productivity can be a more significant factor in the tropics than annual totals or means. our findings also provide support for the 'more-individuals' mechanism of species- energy theory, that is, that more energy input to the system results in more individuals and generally higher species richness (srivastava lawton, 1998). however, our results suggest that in the rainforests of the australian wet tropics, seasonal variation in available resources and energy has a stronger influence than the annual mean available energy (i.e. indexed by mean annual temperature) on bird density. our results also provide support for the climatic-stability- diversity hypothesis (pianka, 1966) where more climatically stable areas are more diverse. in this study at the within-year temporal scale, the effect is only represented by more individuals rather than more species; it might be expected that over longer timescales, this would also be expressed in greater species richness in the more stable areas. seasonal estimates of environmental energy availability have previously been shown to influence bird species richness patterns (e.g. githaiga-mwicigi
How are glaciers in the Himalayas fed?
glaciers in the himalayas are fed by the intense summer monsoon precipitation and a wintertime storm track
A totally consistent accounting of the difference between rain and snow at ELA would also imply the calculation of the reappearance of ?
a fully consistent accounting of the difference between rain and snow at the ela would also involve calculating the refreeze of rain within the snowpack and the resulting heat input. we neglect these effects given our focus on regional scales and first-order questions. the implications for the conclusions are addressed in sensitivity studies in section 5 and in the discussion in section 6. pdds are the sum of daily mean air temperatures ta) that are above zero: pdd
glaciers are found on high topography throughout each of the three zones of central asia and in very diverse climates: glaciers in the himalayas are fed by the intense summer monsoon precipitation and a wintertime storm track; glaciers nestled along the eastern side of the karakoram face the extreme dryness of the desert; and glaciers clinging to the peaks of the mongolian altai are exposed to seasonal cycles in temperature as large as 40degc. modern interannual climate variability can be used to explore how the sensitivity of these glaciers to climate and climate change differs across these diverse climates. we focus first on characterizing regional variability in the modern climate, using the national centers for environmental prediction-national center for atmospheric research (ncep-ncar) reanalysis dataset (kalnay et al. 1996; kistler et al. 2001). ncep-ncar reanalysis uses an analysis/forecast system to perform data assimilation using past data from 1948 to the present. we use the daily output available on a 2.5deg grid in our analyses. we consider two atmospheric quantities relevant for glaciers: total precipitation and positive degree days (pdds--explained in the next paragraph). topography is strongly smoothed by the coarse resolution of the reanalysis (2.5deg  2.5deg), and thus rain at the surface elevation of a reanalysis grid point would likely not be rain at the ela of a glacier within that grid point. we assume that all precipitation falling at the ela is snow. a fully consistent accounting of the difference between rain and snow at the ela would also involve calculating the refreeze of rain within the snowpack and the resulting heat input. we neglect these effects given our focus on regional scales and first-order questions. the implications for the conclusions are addressed in sensitivity studies in section 5 and in the discussion in section 6. pdds are the sum of daily mean air temperatures ta) that are above zero: pdd 
What found to be consistent for CPRS?
respondents' actual behaviours towards climate change mitigation and their stated support for the cprs were found to be consistent
What the variable SOLAR refers to?
the variable solar refers to those respondents who installed solar energy in their 20 20 households to reduce their consumption of carbon intensive electricity
What does the positive sign of the variable denotes?
the positive sign of the variable denotes that respondents who were willing to reduce carbon emission at the household level were also supportive of the national emissions reduction scheme
respondents' actual behaviours towards climate change mitigation and their stated support for the cprs were found to be consistent. the coefficient of the variable 'offset' (if respondents have purchased offsets) is statistically significant and positive in model 1, implying that respondents who have purchased offsets are significantly more likely to pay for the cprs even when global co-operation is not guaranteed. the influence of this variable on determining respondents' support for the cprs becomes insignificant with a guaranteed global co-operation (model 2). the variable solar refers to those respondents who installed solar energy in their 20 20 households to reduce their consumption of carbon intensive electricity. the coefficient of solar is significant at the ten percent level in model 1 and at five percent level in model 2. the positive sign of the variable denotes that respondents who were willing to reduce carbon emission at the household level were also supportive of the national emissions reduction scheme.
Why is coping capacity seen as the converse of vulnerability?
vulnerability is not just a passive state, since it is also determined by the responses of people and systems to health threats
The notion of risk as a function is emphasized by what?
the notion of risk as a function of hazard and vulnerability, emphasizing that is shaped just as much by social processes as it is by natural forces
What did the last chapter cover?
this concluding chapter now integrates and extends the analysis. it draws out a series of points on the dimensions of vulnerability and adaptation to health risks from flooding, and sets them in the context of potential changes in future flood hazards as a result of climate change
chapters 3 and 4 have set out the findings of our review of existing academic literature and other documentation on the health impacts of flooding and the ways in which individuals and organisations respond to those (actual or potential) impacts. in chapter 2 we introduced the notion of risk as a function of hazard and vulnerability, emphasizing that is shaped just as much by social processes as it is by natural forces. the degree to which a particular flood event will affect human health can therefore be seen to depend on the physical nature of the flood event and the degree to which human populations and systems are vulnerable to its impacts. vulnerability is not just a passive state, since it is also determined by the responses of people and systems to health threats. hence, coping capacity is seen as the converse of vulnerability. we also introduced the notion of adaptation as purposeful change to address recurrent or future risk. this concluding chapter now integrates and extends the analysis. it draws out a series of points on the dimensions of vulnerability and adaptation to health risks from flooding, and sets them in the context of potential changes in future flood hazards as a result of climate change. the points are listed in table 5.1 and discussed in the sections that follow. in each of the sections we also pose some key questions that emerge from the study. table 5.1 key points from the review
What has a severe impacts on indigenous peoples?
many of the climate change mitigation policies and schemes currently being developed have severe impacts on indigenous peoples
What is posing direct threats to indigenous peoples land, resources and their livelihoods?
nuclear energy, large-scale hydropower projects, agro-fuel plantations, the clean development mechanism, and forest offsets coupled with carbon trading mechanisms are posing direct threats to indigenous peoples land, resources and their livelihoods
Why indigenous people opposed to many of these schemes?
indigenous peoples are also opposed to many of these schemes because they do not address the real causes of climate change: the overconsumption of the world's resources by the few
many of the climate change mitigation policies and schemes currently being developed have severe impacts on indigenous peoples. nuclear energy, large-scale hydropower projects, agro-fuel plantations, the clean development mechanism, and forest offsets coupled with carbon trading mechanisms are posing direct threats to indigenous peoples land, resources and their livelihoods. indigenous peoples are also opposed to many of these schemes because they do not address the real causes of climate change: the overconsumption of the world's resources by the few. unfortunately, there is no political will among the rich and powerful nations to seriously address the underlying cause. instead, they propose compensation schemes like carbon trading which allow those who can afford to buy cheap "carbon credits" in the global south to continue emitting greenhouse gases. from april 20 - 24, 2009, indigenous representatives from all over the world gathered in anchorage, alaska to exchange their knowledge and experience in adapting to the impacts of climate change. it was the first time that a meeting on climate change focused only on indigenous eoples. the participants came up with key messages and recommendations which will be presented when the unfccc meets for the fifteenth conference of parties (cop15) in copenhagen, denmark in december 2009. in the anchorage declaration indigenous peoples challenged states to "abandon false solutions to climate change that negatively impact indigenous peoples' rights, lands, air, oceans, forests, territories and waters."
indicator of risk exposure?
relating inundation depth as another indicator of risk exposure at individual household level to household income, we find a small, but significant negative relationship, suggesting that lower incomes suffer higher inundation levels and are hence indeed more exposed to flood risks
Relation between inundation depth and land ownership?
the same significant negative relationship is also found between inundation depth and land ownership. those respondents who own more land suffer lower inundation levels
How are affected the Floodplain residents?
floodplain residents living under the poverty threshold value face significantly higher inundation levels than floodplain residents living above the poverty threshold value (table 7.1). at the same time, floodplain residents living under the poverty threshold depend for their livelihood significantly more on natural resources such as land for crop cultivation and fishery than floodplain residents living above the poverty line
relating inundation depth as another indicator of risk exposure at individual household level to household income, we find a small, but significant negative relationship, suggesting that lower incomes suffer higher inundation levels and are hence indeed more exposed to flood risks. the same significant negative relationship is also found between inundation depth and land ownership. those respondents who own more land suffer lower inundation levels. this is visualized in figure 7.1 (the underlying correlation table is presented in the annex to this paper). as expected, land ownership is significantly and positively correlated to household income (r=0.331; p <0.001). people with higher income own more land. these results are confirmed when comparing the same risk exposure indicator for respondents living under and above the poverty threshold value (see section 5.1). floodplain residents living under the poverty threshold value face significantly higher inundation levels than floodplain residents living above the poverty threshold value (table 7.1). at the same time, floodplain residents living under the poverty threshold depend for their livelihood significantly more on natural resources such as land for crop cultivation and fishery than floodplain residents living above the poverty line (table 7.2)
Where are homes currently planned to be built?
build the thames gateway development, east of london
What is one alternative proposed place to build homes?
the northwest
What is one potential problem in the development of the homes?
chronic water shortage in the southeast
was the chronic water shortage in the southeast, now and in the future, taken into account when permission was given to build the thames gateway development, east of london, with 200 000 new homes? <s121>* what are the extra infrastructural costs of placing those new homes in the southeast, where new dams and water plants have to be built to cope with the increase, as opposed to the northwest, where there will be more water in summer, and the long-term costs will be lower for the ordinary householder, and who pays for them? <s121>* does the ordinary householder agree to pay the increased water bill costs so that an extra 200 000 homes can be built in the thames gateway <s121>* how has the serious problem of more homes exacerbating summer droughts in the southeast been dealt with in the planning process? <s121>* will farmers who have less and less water available to them, and who are already suffering from drought stress in arable crops, with irrigation water having to be saved for higher value vegetable and salad crops, 13 be able to claim compensation from the politicians who unwisely approved developments that exceeded that capacity of the regional environment to support them?
What can be said of wind turbines in the US?
in most of the united states wind turbines have higher capacity factors than solar panels
Why is a wind turbine better than a solar installation in the US?
a 1-mw wind turbine will offset more health, environmental, and climate damages than a 1-mw solar installation (fig. 1
When does wind output tend to be highest?
wind output tends to be highest late at night, when demand is low and coal is more often on the margin (15
in most of the united states wind turbines have higher capacity factors than solar panels. as a result, a 1-mw wind turbine will offset more health, environmental, and climate damages than a 1-mw solar installation (fig. 1). on a per-megawatt-hour basis, wind and solar energy may result in different social bene fi ts because of temporal differences. wind output tends to be highest late at night, when demand is low and coal is more often on the margin (15). solar output peaks midday, when demand is high and gas is more often on the margin. as a result, a megawatt-hour of wind energy may displace more emissions than a megawatt-hour of solar energy. the difference between wind and solar, on a per-megawatt-hour bases, is negligible in much of the country. in virginia and maryland, where the difference is most pronounced, a megawatt-hour of wind energy results in 30% more health, environmental, and climate bene fi ts than a megawatt-hour of solar energy.
How will adjustments change aspects of economic life?
what we consume, to the way we produce energy, the technologies we use, where we locate firms, and how we produce and distribute goods
What are the risks and rewards of these adjustments?
change of this magnitude creates risks but also opportunities. there will be both winners and losers as the world moves towards a low-carbon economy. an important concern for many people in this respect is the impact of climate change policy on employment
What is the one concern many will people will have after the adjustments?
an important concern for many people in this respect is the impact of climate change policy on employment
a consensus is emerging that addressing climate change will require a cut in global greenhouse gas emissions of at least 50% by the middle of the century - considerably more in developed countries - which will have to bear the brunt of the abatement effort (see stern, 2007). making these adjustments will require wholesale changes in the way economies are structured; changes that will spread into every aspect of economic life - from what we consume, to the way we produce energy, the technologies we use, where we locate firms, and how we produce and distribute goods. change of this magnitude creates risks but also opportunities. there will be both winners and losers as the world moves towards a low-carbon economy. an important concern for many people in this respect is the impact of climate change policy on employment.
What we found regarding performance of aquatic non-native species?
we found that performance of aquatic non-native species decreased less than that of co-occurring native species in potential future climatic conditions, whereas we found only weak evidence for differential responses in terrestrial ecosystems
Why is it important to recognise distinctions between study designs?
recognising distinctions between study designs is important for interpreting differing results across analyses of performance responses to climate change
What are the results from a metaanalysis of performance-related traits in plants yield?
results from a metaanalysis of performance-related traits in plants yield support for the hypothesis that non-natives outperform native species under current climatic conditions in some settings
we found that performance of aquatic non-native species decreased less than that of co-occurring native species in potential future climatic conditions, whereas we found only weak evidence for differential responses in terrestrial ecosystems. the lack of a strong and consistent origin-related response of terrestrial species to climatic factors of global change contrasts with results found, for example, in a meta-analysis of responses to eutrophication: nutrient enrichment consistently favoured non-native plants and invertebrates over their native counterparts (gonza'lez et al. 2010). recognising distinctions between study designs is important for interpreting differing results across analyses of performance responses to climate change. in this study, we quantified how predicted climatic conditions changed performance of native and non-native species relative to current ambient or average conditions, rather than comparing absolute performance differences between native and non-native species (e.g. gonza'lez et al. 2010). therefore, our findings for terrestrial species suggest that responses to climate change will not differ between native and non-native species; however, if the current trend is for non-natives to outperform native species, then there is no climatebased reason for this to change in the future. results from a metaanalysis of performance-related traits in plants yield support for the hypothesis that non-natives outperform native species under current climatic conditions in some settings (van kleunen et al. 2010). furthermore, in a post hoc analysis of the performance differences between native and non-native plant species in our study (using the effect size es for the ambient responsenon-native vs. responsenative), we detected a slight non-native performance advantage (0.15 +- 0.08 se; one-sample t -test t 1.880, d.f. 93, p 0.063). thus, in terrestrial plant systems, the lack of differential responses to altered conditions would suggest that non-native species are likely to at
What is this document about?
this paper addresses the planning, design, and early implementation stages of adaptation interventions
Which are possible uses of M&E?
the core principles presented in this report center around the importance of m&e as a tool to shape successful adaptation efforts. we also recognize, however, that m&e can serve other useful purposes. for example, it can help identify positive synergies between efforts towards adaptation and other objectives, such as economic growth or climate change mitigation
How many chapters are there in the report and what are they written for?
this report consists of four chapters designed to provide a roadmap for adaptation and development practitioners on how to design and implement project-level monitoring and evaluation systems
we expect adaptation m&e practice will evolve substantially in the years ahead. we offer this guidance in the hope that capturing early lessons in adaptation can propel future successful efforts. this paper addresses the planning, design, and early implementation stages of adaptation interventions. the key framework can also serve as a basis for funders and their partners to develop or analyse programmatic agendas, formulate evaluation questions, or supplement guidance on m&e in a specific sector or thematic area. the core principles presented in this report center around the importance of m&e as a tool to shape successful adaptation efforts. we also recognize, however, that m&e can serve other useful purposes. for example, it can help identify positive synergies between efforts towards adaptation and other objectives, such as economic growth or climate change mitigation. the guidance presented here is limited to the scope of our research and consultations and has not yet been substantially tested in the field. practitioners will undoubtedly need to adjust their use of this paper to the unique needs of specific interventions, and to existing m&e systems and management standards. furthermore, analysis of adaptation strategies and efforts beyond the intervention level are largely beyond the scope of this paper. very different methodologies may be needed to assess, for example, large-scale, countrywide adaptation strategies, or sector-wide adaptation efforts. finally, as practitioners, governments, and other development cooperation partners progress in this emerging field, much remains to be tested and learned about "what works" in adaptation and how to measure it. summary of key findings this report consists of four chapters designed to provide a roadmap for adaptation and development practitioners on how to design and implement project-level monitoring and evaluation systems. the key content of each chapter is summarized below.
Are soil and water conservation strategies currently being practiced by most smallholder farmers?
soil and water conservation strategies, such as water harvesting activities, which currently are practiced by about 38% of the smallholder farmers, are being intensified as agricultural extension officers and ngos, such as zvishavane water projects, wake flat out to promote the activities
How can conservation strategies practiced by farmers be beneficial?
if these practices are properly promoted and adopted by the farmers, they promise to address some of the climate change challenges among smallholder farmers
Is conventional irrigation feasible for smallholder farmers?
considering their poor resources and marginal location which makes conventional irrigation impossible
soil and water conservation strategies, such as water harvesting activities, which currently are practiced by about 38% of the smallholder farmers, are being intensified as agricultural extension officers and ngos, such as zvishavane water projects, wake flat out to promote the activities. these institutions are enthusiastic about promoting these practices because they are building on farmers' indigenous knowledge, skills, and experience acquired over the years, as farmers were battling to survive the harsh climatic conditions that prevail in the area. if these practices are properly promoted and adopted by the farmers, they promise to address some of the climate change challenges among smallholder farmers considering their poor resources and marginal location which makes conventional irrigation impossible.
What have drier conditions been associated with that can cause fish kills?
drier conditions have also been associated with acid pulses (which can cause fish kills
What has tremendous hydrological importance in the Canadian Prairies?
in the canadian prairies, wetlands (sloughs) are of tremendous hydrological importance
What does the persistence of Canandian prairie wetlands depend on?
the persistence of these wetlands depends on a complex interaction between climate, geology and land use patterns
as water flows through a wetland, contaminants such as metals, nutrients and sulphates are often filtered out. lower water table levels, however, decrease the assimilative and purification abilities of wetlands. drier conditions have also been associated with acid pulses (which can cause fish kills) and the formation of highly toxic methylmercury.(29, 30)in the canadian prairies, wetlands (sloughs) are of tremendous hydrological importance, and provide vital habitat for birds and aquatic species. the persistence of these wetlands depends on a complex interaction between climate, geology and land use patterns, and their extent is controlled by the balance between water inputs and outputs.(31)
How can human land-use affect the survival of species in the context of climate change?
patterns of human land-use change may affect the ability of species to persist in the future. land-use effects will be especially pronounced in the context of changing climate as species may migrate into or out of areas that will experience disproportionate levels of human land-use change, thereby either increasing or decreasing the relative benefit of migrating
To what extent can the upward migration of species be positive?
upward migrating species may therefore actually 'escape' highly disturbed areas and benefit by moving upslope even if the amount of total land area decreases
patterns of human land-use change may affect the ability of species to persist in the future. land-use effects will be especially pronounced in the context of changing climate as species may migrate into or out of areas that will experience disproportionate levels of human land-use change, thereby either increasing or decreasing the relative benefit of migrating. for example, a disturbance model of soares-filho et al (2006) predicts high rates of deforestation throughout the amazon and along the base of the andes but decreasing rates of disturbance at higher elevations. upward migrating species may therefore actually 'escape' highly disturbed areas and benefit by moving upslope even if the amount of total land area decreases. in the tropical andes, however, human land-use may have an additional effect on species migrations in that the upper elevational limit of forest growth, or tree line, is potentially set not by climate but instead by humanassociated activities such as cattle grazing and accidentally or intentionally set fires which are used to increase fodder for cattle (keating, 2007; cierjacks et al ., 2008). with anthropogenic effects on tree line, increasing temperatures may not cause tree line to move upslope as would be predicted if tree line were set by climate alone. this places a fixed upper limit to the distributions of forest species and may greatly reduce range sizes from those predicted based on climate alone. under this fixed tree line or 'grass ceiling' scenario, upward migrating andean species will have less area available to them than if tree line was allowed to move upslope in response to temperature increases. an anthropogenically fixed upper limit to the distribution of forest species will have pronounced effects in the andes as the region above current tree line is relatively flat compared with the forested slopes with the amount of land area actually increasing at high elevations between  3500 and 4500m. if tree line moves upslope in response to climate change, species may increase their range size and increase their ability to persist. if, on the other hand, tree line is anthropogenically determined and/or remains fixed or lowers in the future, species will be prevented from colonizing the high-elevation plateau and as such future range predictions may switch from increases to decreases in habitat area following migration. here we model the effects of climate change on the distributions, population sizes, and associated relative extinction risks of 223 forest plant species from the tropical andes incorporating information about withinrange density distributions, migration rates, and human land-use change. we show that while all of these factors have significant impacts on predictions, the fate of andean species with climate change will likely depend primarily on patterns of human land-use. this is potentially good news if conservation policy measures can be enacted now to change patterns of land-use and help reduce the loss of andean species due to climate change.
What could be seen as a 'win-win' solution?
if the climate change threat were to galvanise significant improvement in health systems and related services
For the South in particular, there is a strong argument that adaptation to future health risks will be facilitated most effectively by what?
overall strengthening of health systems and life-supporting services
General improvement of health-related facilities and services, including disease control, waste management and water and sanitation provision, would go a long way to reducing vulnerability to specific hazards such as what?
flooding
for the south in particular, there is a strong argument that adaptation to future health risks will be facilitated most effectively by overall strengthening of health systems and life-supporting services (who, 1999). general improvement of health-related facilities and services, including disease control, waste management and water and sanitation provision, would go a long way to reducing vulnerability to specific hazards such as flooding. it will do so by, reducing chronic health hazards in the environment, improving the general health status of populations (so reducing susceptibility to ill-health), and improving the coping capacity of systems during emergencies. if the climate change threat were to galvanise significant improvement in health systems and related services, it could be seen as a 'win-win' solution - one that will provide benefits regardless of the outcome of climate change. point 13
What is reviewed on this paper?
the effects of the 1997 drought and the 1998 el nino rains on maasai herders in northern tanzania
What was possible to be linked together with this study.
on to clusters of vegetation biomass, thus expanding the scale of the analysis
What does the analysis demonstrates?
potential for spatial generalizations from an understanding of social processes at the local level for policy for mitigation and adaptation for dealing with climate variability
in this paper we review the effects of the 1997 drought and the 1998 el nino rains on maasai herders in northern tanzania and explore with satellite data the degree to which we can expand the spatial scale of the analysis. hierarchical cluster analyses of regional vegetation biomass trends are used and are associated with the results of surveys conducted among the maasai. the methods attempt to extend local-level survey data to landscape and regional scales. we were able to link the household production information to clusters of vegetation biomass, thus expanding the scale of the analysis. the analysis demonstrates the potential for spatial generalizations from an understanding of social processes at the local level for policy for mitigation and adaptation for dealing with climate variability. key words: social science * remote sensing * climate variability * east africa * pastoralists
What is one of the advantages of the study's approach?
one of the advantages of our approach is that it permits emulation with a relatively small training set of precomputed runs
How was the trade-off between size of the training set and goodness of fit determined?
to determine the trade-off between size of the training set and goodness of fit, we examined the performance of the emulator with a varying number of scenarios and realizations
Does increasing the number of realizations decrease the misfit of the outlier regions with highest I1 values?
increasing the number of realizations further also does not reduce the misfit of the outlier regions with highest i1 values, which all lie in the southern ocean
one of the advantages of our approach is that it permits emulation with a relatively small training set of precomputed runs. to determine the trade-off between size of the training set and goodness of fit, we examined the performance of the emulator with a varying number of scenarios and realizations. investigating the impact of the number of realizations on emulation quality is the more straightforward test, involving computing i1 for temperature emulation over a range of number of realizations used. figure 5b shows results from an experiment in which the moderate scenario was emulated with from 1 to 5 realizations of the fast scenario as the training set. increasing the number of realizations of each training scenario produces more accurate emulations, but the difference between the use of even 1 and 2 realizations is small and there is diminishing return gained from further increasing the number of realizations in the training set. increasing the number of realizations further also does not reduce the misfit of the outlier regions with highest i1 values, which all lie in the southern ocean. testing the value added by additional scenarios is a less well-defined problem, since different choices of scenarios will affect the emulation differently. nevertheless, we attempt a test by conducting emulations with increasing numbers of scenarios. again we emulate temperature in the moderate scenario beginning with a training set consisting of a single realization of slow and successively adding to the training set fast, jump, and drop (fig. 5a), which is a rough attempt to order the training scenarios from most to least similar to the prediction scenario. the results show that the addition of scenarios first improves and then degrades the emulation. we interpret this result as implying that our simple statistical model cannot perfectly represent all scenarios; that is, the best values of b0, b1, b2, and r in eq. (1) vary somewhat with the scenario. including scenarios in the training set very different from the one emulated can then result in worse performance. figure 5 shows that even a single slow or a single fast realization yields a fairly good emulator of the moderate scenario. however, we would be cautious about building emulators when aogcm output is available for only one scenario since that would leave no opportunity to check for stability of the regression parameters across scenarios. our tests suggest that the choice of training set is not especially crucial if prediction and training scenarios are similar, but more care would be needed for emulating extreme scenarios. one approach might be to choose different training sets according to the prediction scenario.
It has become clear that slope stability and mass movements in high-mountain regions are what?
it has become clear that slope stability and mass movements in high-mountain regions are complex and highly interlinked systems
Sediment supply, as described above, can also be controlled by climatic changes through processes such as what?
sediment supply, as described above, can also be controlled by climatic changes through processes such as the increase of the active layer of permafrost, increase of rock glacier flow speed, or aggradation of rock debris from destabilized rock flanks
What are some possible outcomes of glacial downwasting?
at the same time, with the ongoing and eventually complete downwasting of glaciers, certain sources of sediment may become depleted or disconnected from downslope systems; an increase of vegetation cover at higher altitudes could reduce erosion rates and create more stable conditions in the long term
it has become clear that slope stability and mass movements in high-mountain regions are complex and highly interlinked systems. sediment supply, as described above, can also be controlled by climatic changes through processes such as the increase of the active layer of permafrost, increase of rock glacier flow speed, or aggradation of rock debris from destabilized rock flanks. at the same time, with the ongoing and eventually complete downwasting of glaciers, certain sources of sediment may become depleted or disconnected from downslope systems; an increase of vegetation cover at higher altitudes could reduce erosion rates and create more stable conditions in the long term. in this case, conditions might improve and imminent hazards could decrease at certain locations on a multi-decadal timescale. over decadal timescales, topography can be affected significantly as a result of shrinking glaciers and slope failures (geertsema et al., 2006; holm et al., 2004; paul and haeberli,
Describe the insight MLCAN?
the multilayer canopy-root-soil system model, mlcan, provides insights into the impact of the vertical distributions of leaf area and root biomass (22), presented in fig. s1 the leaf area density lad affects radiation attenuation through the canopy and canopy microclimate, while root biomass distribution dictates patterns of water uptake through the soil column
Define Qabs?
presents the mean diurnal vertical patterns of an, latent heat le ), sensible heat h ), total absorbed shortwave radiation qabs), including photosynthetically active par and near-infrared nir bands
In what year did the steam GSV start?
stomatal conductance for vapor gsv) through the canopy of each crop over the month of august, 2005. for each crop, the vertical distribution of an
the multilayer canopy-root-soil system model, mlcan, provides insights into the impact of the vertical distributions of leaf area and root biomass (22), presented in fig. s1 the leaf area density lad affects radiation attenuation through the canopy and canopy microclimate, while root biomass distribution dictates patterns of water uptake through the soil column. fig. s2 presents the mean diurnal vertical patterns of an, latent heat le ), sensible heat h ), total absorbed shortwave radiation qabs), including photosynthetically active par and near-infrared nir bands, and stomatal conductance for vapor gsv) through the canopy of each crop over the month of august, 2005. for each crop, the vertical distribution of an and
What is the main purpose of the review paper?
context this review paper provides an overview of approaches to which we may resort for handling the complex decision problems involving uncertainty and risk that climate change implies for forest managers
According to the text, the 2 fold reasons for the approaches are
modelling approaches that could support adaptive management strategies seem to be called for, not only as climate change denotes increased economic uncertainty but also because new and more reliable information becomes available as time passes and climate changes
context this review paper provides an overview of approaches to which we may resort for handling the complex decision problems involving uncertainty and risk that climate change implies for forest managers. modelling approaches that could support adaptive management strategies seem to be called for, not only as climate change denotes increased economic uncertainty but also because new and more reliable information becomes available as time passes and climate changes. * aims the paper (1) provides a broad overview of stateofthe-art methods for optimal decision making under risk and uncertainty in forestry and (2) elaborates on the possible use of these methods in adaptive forest management under climate change.
What is the key challenge worldwide?
the ability of health systems to respond eff ectively to direct and indirect health eff ects of climate change is a key challenge worldwide
What are the characteristics of low and middle income countries?
many low-income and middle-income countries that suff er from disorganised, ineffi cient, and under-resourced health systems
What is the need for health system in low and middle income countries?
more investment and resources for health systems strengthening will be required
the ability of health systems to respond eff ectively to direct and indirect health eff ects of climate change is a key challenge worldwide, especially in many low-income and middle-income countries that suff er from disorganised, ineffi cient, and under-resourced health systems. for many countries, more investment and resources for health systems strengthening will be required. climate change threats to health also highlight the vital requirement for improved stewardship, population-based planning, and the eff ective and effi cient management of scarce resources. recommendations on management of the health eff ects of climate change are listed at the end of this report.
What do the other major REOFs show? also show significant correlations of temperature and precipitation (not shown)
the other leading reofs also show significant temperature and precipitation correlations (not shown
How is REOF 2 associated? is associated with a wet / dry north / south dipole over the USA and Canada
reof 2 is associated with a north/south wet/dry dipole over the u.s. and canada
What are the correlations of REOF 3? There are significant correlations of temperature and precipitation in eastern North America and Europe.
reof 3 has significant temperature and precipitation correlations over eastern north america and europe
north america. the other leading reofs also show significant temperature and precipitation correlations (not shown). reof 2 is associated with a north/south wet/dry dipole over the u.s. and canada, and an east/west dipole in temperature in the western and central united states. reof 3 has significant temperature and precipitation correlations over eastern north america and europe, and reof 5 has significant precipitation and temperature correlations extending south and east from the caspian sea to india, parts of china, and indonesia. while the details of the mechanisms by which the upper tropospheric waves impact the surface meteorology are beyond the scope of this paper, we note that the vertical structure of the waves (as determined from correlations with the v-wind at 850mb - not shown) is largely barotropic, although there is some tendency for a westward tilt with height.
What is one consequence due to demise of fire  in different ecosystems?
many western coniferous forests (for example, dry ponderosa pine forests, covington and moore 1994 have suffered dramatic increases in understory fuels
Which species dominated due to the decline of fires in the eastern USA?
invasion of shade-tolerant hardwoods
fire was widespread in many ecosystems throughout western usa before european settlement. the loss of native americans (and thus ignitions), the fragmentation of native vegetation by farming, and later the fire suppression policy, all contributed to drastically changing fire regimes during the last several decades. an abrupt decline in fire activity, uncoupled from the climatic conditions, is depicted in sedimentary charcoal and tree-ring scars (covington and moore 1994 taylor 2007 marlon and others 2012 figure 4 and might show a magnitude similar to the climatic-driven fire decline during the little ice age (marlon and others 2012 ). this demise of fire had different consequences in different ecosystems. for instance, many western coniferous forests (for example, dry ponderosa pine forests, covington and moore 1994 have suffered dramatic increases in understory fuels and a switch from frequent lowintensity surface fire regimes to a susceptibility to highintensity crown fires (allen and others 2002 keeley and others 2009 ). in contrast, the decline of fires in the eastern usa, once dominated by fire-dependent open communities (oak-pine and tallgrass prairiessavanna formations), has favored the invasion of shade-tolerant hardwoods (peterson and reich 2001 ). these species reduce understory light conditions further promoting shade-tolerant over fireadapted species and generating a positive feedback that drives the system to non-flammable closedcanopy forests (mesophication sensu nowacki and abrams 2008 ). this phenomenon is not confined to
Whose instruction must be followed for the  installation of the aerator?
the installation of the aerator must follow the manufacturer's instructions
Why the energy consumption and the oxygen transfer rate decreased?
submergence below the optimal only a surface spray is formed in the vicinity of the aerator, without creating an effective turbulence
What happens when effective turbulence is not created?
energy consumption and the oxygen transfer rate decrease
submergence below the optimal only a surface spray is formed in the vicinity of the aerator, without creating an effective turbulence. the energy consumption and the oxygen transfer rate decrease. the installation of the aerator must follow the manufacturer's instructions. besides this, local tests should be carried out in order to obtain the optimal submergence in the reactor in question. in many activated sludge plants, the oxygen transfer rate can be varied in such a way as to adjust itself to the variations in the oxygen utilisation rate. the variation can be manual or automated, by means of timers or sensors for dissolved oxygen in the reactor. listed below are some of the most common forms of varying the
how many aspects of future global environmental change are shown?
here we show that 2 aspects of future global environmental change
where atmospheric CO and air temperature are higher urban or rural areas?
air temperature and atmospheric co are already significantly higher in urban relative to rural areas
what is suggested in this article?
we suggest that urbanization, per se, might provide a low-cost alternative to current experimental methods evaluating plant responses to climate change
1.8adeg to 2.0adegc (3.4adeg to 3.6adegf) higher than those at a rural site. this result is consistent with most global change scenarios. ragweed grew faster, flowered earlier, and produced significantly greater above-ground biomass and ragweed pollen at urban locations than at rural locations. conclusions: here we show that 2 aspects of future global environmental change, air temperature and atmospheric co are already significantly higher in urban relative to rural areas. in general, we show that regional urbanization-induced temperature/co increases similar to those associated with projected global climatic change might already have public health consequences; we suggest that urbanization, per se, might provide a low-cost alternative to current experimental methods evaluating plant responses to climate change. (j allergy clin immunol 2003;111:290-5.)
What is the main battle in climate change?
the front line of our battle against climate change should be the planning profession
Why is does planning face issues the bad and good?
unfortunately, planners, although many are very proactive on such issues, are all too often simply not equipped with the knowledge, or the statutory teeth, to deal with ' unsustainable ' developments. at worst planners, and the voting councillors they serve, are responsible for major mistakes that could blight the lives of hundreds of thousands of people
What do planners need to understand?
at best enlightened planners are leading the way forward in building low-carbon, low-impact and low-risk communities in a rapidly changing climate. first however, we must deal with the important issues of why planners do not understand the dangers posed by developments in the flood plains. it could be a combination of factors
the front line of our battle against climate change should be the planning profession. unfortunately, planners, although many are very proactive on such issues, are all too often simply not equipped with the knowledge, or the statutory teeth, to deal with ' unsustainable ' developments. at worst planners, and the voting councillors they serve, are responsible for major mistakes that could blight the lives of hundreds of thousands of people. at best enlightened planners are leading the way forward in building low-carbon, low-impact and low-risk communities in a rapidly changing climate. first however, we must deal with the important issues of why planners do not understand the dangers posed by developments in the flood plains. it could be a combination of factors:
What are tipping points?
our tipping points are irreversible shifts in system dynamics that occur upon crossing a threshold in the state space
What is the probability of a tipping point happening?
the probability of a tipping point occurring (i.e., the hazard rate) is endogenous. it depends on the evolution of the state variables, which in turn depends on policy choices as well as on the stochastics governing system dynamics
What happens once the threshold is passed?
once the threshold is crossed, system dynamics change irreversibly
our tipping points are irreversible shifts in system dynamics that occur upon crossing a threshold in the state space. the policymaker does not know the precise location of the threshold. the probability of a tipping point occurring (i.e., the hazard rate) is endogenous. it depends on the evolution of the state variables, which in turn depends on policy choices as well as on the stochastics governing system dynamics. the policymaker learns that regions in the state space she has already visited are free of tipping points.2crossing the threshold shifts the world from the "pre-threshold" regime to a "post-threshold" regime with permanently altered system dynamics. optimal preand post-threshold policies together determine the welfare loss triggered by the tipping point. the policymaker solves an infinite-horizon dynamic optimization problem. optimal policy at time t depends on the vector st of state variables. we denote the value of the optimal policy program by vps( st).3the parameter ps indicates whether vps( * is the value function for the pre-threshold regime ps 0) or for the post-threshold regime ps 1). in general, the threshold is an unknown function of the state variables. in the case of climate change, the threshold is the temperature level. once the threshold is crossed, system dynamics change irreversibly. returning state variables to earlier values does not restore the original dynamics. in our climate application, the new dynamics include melted ice sheets, large methane releases, or disrupted forest ecosystems; lowering temperature would not undo any of these changes over policy-relevant timescales. similarly, macroeconomic changes can permanently alter expectations and institutions. optimal
Describe the frequency and severity of extreme events such as hurricanes flood hail and drought ?
global and regional weather conditions are also expected to become more variable than at present, with increases in the frequency and severity of extreme events such as cyclones, floods, hailstorms, and droughts (3, 8). by bringing greater fluctuations in crop yields and local food supplies and higher risks of landslides and erosion damage, they can adversely affect the stability of food supplies and thus food security
Describe climate change or short-term climate change?
neither climate change nor short-term climate variability and associated adaptation are new phenomena in agriculture, of course. as shown, for instance, in ref. 9, some important agricultural areas of the world like the midwest of the united states, the northeast of argentina, southern africa, or southeast australia have traditionally experienced higher climate variability than other regions such as central africa or europe. they also show that the extent of short-term fluctuations has changed over longer periods of time. in developed countries, for instance, short-term climate variability increased from 1931 to 1960 as compared with 1901 to 1930, but decreased strongly in the period from 1961 to 1990. what is new, however, is the fact that the areas subject to high climate variability are likely to expand, whereas the extent of short-term climate variability is likely to increase across all regions
What are the rates and magnitudes of planned warming?
they also show that the extent of short-term fluctuations has changed over longer periods of time. in developed countries, for instance, short-term climate variability increased from 1931 to 1960 as compared with 1901 to 1930, but decreased strongly in the period from 1961 to 1990. what is new, however, is the fact that the areas subject to high climate variability are likely to expand, whereas the extent of short-term climate variability is likely to increase across all regions. furthermore, the rates and levels of projected warming may exceed in some regions the historical experience (3, 8). if climate fluctuations become more pronounced and more widespread, droughts and floods, the dominant causes of shortterm fluctuations in food production in semiarid and subhumid areas, will become more severe and more frequent. in semiarid areas, droughts can dramatically reduce crop yields and livestock numbers and productivity (8). again, most of this land is in sub-saharan africa and parts of south asia, meaning that the poorest regions with the highest level of chronic undernourishment will also be exposed to the highest degree of instability in food production (13). how strongly these impacts will be felt will crucially depend on whether such fluctuations can be countered by investments in irrigation, better storage facilities, or higher food imports. in addition, a policy environment that fosters freer trade and promotes investments in transportation, communications, and irrigation infrastructure can help address these challenges early on
global and regional weather conditions are also expected to become more variable than at present, with increases in the frequency and severity of extreme events such as cyclones, floods, hailstorms, and droughts (3, 8). by bringing greater fluctuations in crop yields and local food supplies and higher risks of landslides and erosion damage, they can adversely affect the stability of food supplies and thus food security. neither climate change nor short-term climate variability and associated adaptation are new phenomena in agriculture, of course. as shown, for instance, in ref. 9, some important agricultural areas of the world like the midwest of the united states, the northeast of argentina, southern africa, or southeast australia have traditionally experienced higher climate variability than other regions such as central africa or europe. they also show that the extent of short-term fluctuations has changed over longer periods of time. in developed countries, for instance, short-term climate variability increased from 1931 to 1960 as compared with 1901 to 1930, but decreased strongly in the period from 1961 to 1990. what is new, however, is the fact that the areas subject to high climate variability are likely to expand, whereas the extent of short-term climate variability is likely to increase across all regions. furthermore, the rates and levels of projected warming may exceed in some regions the historical experience (3, 8). if climate fluctuations become more pronounced and more widespread, droughts and floods, the dominant causes of shortterm fluctuations in food production in semiarid and subhumid areas, will become more severe and more frequent. in semiarid areas, droughts can dramatically reduce crop yields and livestock numbers and productivity (8). again, most of this land is in sub-saharan africa and parts of south asia, meaning that the poorest regions with the highest level of chronic undernourishment will also be exposed to the highest degree of instability in food production (13). how strongly these impacts will be felt will crucially depend on whether such fluctuations can be countered by investments in irrigation, better storage facilities, or higher food imports. in addition, a policy environment that fosters freer trade and promotes investments in transportation, communications, and irrigation infrastructure can help address these challenges early on.
Who sell their primarily catch to the national market for human consumption?
the artisanal subsector is made up of small-scale producers who primarily sell their catch to the national market for human consumption
How many persons were employed in activities connected to these two subsectors?
overall, about 200,000 persons are employed in activities connected to these two subsectors
Who made the regulations such as vedas and quotas?
currently, regulations such as closed seasons vedas and quotas are made by the ministry of fisheries
the artisanal subsector is made up of small-scale producers who primarily sell their catch to the national market for human consumption. there is tension between the artisanal and industrial subsectors. the former blame large vessels for catching juveniles that are the resource base for the artisanal catch, for impinging on reserved fishing areas when small pelagic stocks move close to shore, such as during an el nino event, and for coastal pollution resulting from fishmeal processing. overall, about 200,000 persons are employed in activities connected to these two subsectors. the industrial subsector wields the economic and political power and appears focused on relatively short-term profit maximization (see thorp and bertram, 1978; baltazar, 1979; zapata velasco and sueiro, 1999). currently, regulations such as closed seasons vedas and quotas are made by the ministry of fisheries. its decisions are, in theory, informed by the recommendations of the board of directors of the governmental scientific agency in charge of fisheries and oceanographic studies. in practice, regulations are inconsistently enforced. 2.3. impacts of 1997-98 el nino on the peruvian fishery
How were the trees classified in terms of cluster numbers?
each of the clusters fell completely into a single run type: c4 and c1 populations were all summer runs, and c2 and c3 populations were all spring runs
What were 3 natural factors the classification relied on?
further classification relied on stream width, stream temperature and elevation (fig. 4
the classification tree analysis identified a small number of predictors of cluster membership. each of the clusters fell completely into a single run type: c4 and c1 populations were all summer runs, and c2 and c3 populations were all spring runs. further classification relied on stream width, stream temperature and elevation (fig. 4). these three variables covaried to some extent because higher elevation streams are often narrower and cooler. comparing average stream width and temperature in each cluster with the driving environmental factors in each population revealed that narrower, cooler streams were most sensitive to flow, and the wider, hotter streams were most sensitive to high temperature. note that other stream characteristics may significantly affect overall survival rates in each stream, but our results suggest that they do not greatly affect interannual variation in survival, and hence cluster identity.
What happens if partner in cicil society cannot be located?
one industry tactic has been to establish organizations ostensibly representing private citizens in order to give the impression of grass roots lobbying, an activity termed 'astroturf organizing' (stauber and rampton, 1995
Ehat would actors engaged in a â€œwar of positionâ€ do?
would adopt strategies that are coordinated across the three pillars of hegemony and directed toward civil society as well as the state
What is as important as narrow economic activity?
the drive to sustain legitimacy and a broad alliance of social actors is as important as more narrow economic activity
egan strained by historical trajectories. it is precisely in the space between structural determinism and unconstrained agency that the concept of strategy finds traction, providing the grounds for gramsci's 'optimism of the will'. it is useil to highlight some specific contributions that a neo-gramscian perspective brings to an analysis of contested issues such as climate change. first, we might expect that actors engaged in a 'war of position' would adopt strategies that are coordinated across the three pillars of hegemony and directed toward civil society as well as the state. the drive to sustain legitimacy and a broad alliance of social actors is as important as more narrow economic activity. for example, companies under challenge on environmental issues often form issue-specific associations to lobby, mobilize resources, and coordinate strategy. they also attempt to recruit mainstream environmental organizations into the historical bloc, while marginalizing more radical groups such as greenpeace. where partners in civil society cannot be located, one industry tactic has been to establish organizations ostensibly representing private citizens in order to give the impression of grass roots lobbying, an activity termed 'astroturf organizing' (stauber and rampton, 1995).
What does "Nondogmatic" mean in Bayesian parlance?
nondogmatic" in bayesian parlance just means that no event is ruled out a priori by having been assigned zero probability in the prior distribution
What is the alternative offered by the author instead of declaring immediate all-out war on greenhouse gas emissions as advocated by Stern?
instead of declaring immediate all-out war on greenhouse gas emissions as advocated by stern maybe we would do better by steadily but surely ramping up greenhouse gas cuts over the next decade or two while simultaneously investigating seriously the nature of the runawayclimate disasters in the thick tails and what might be done realistically about them should they start to materialize
What should a responsible policy approach NOT do, according to the text?
a responsible policy approach neither dismisses the horror stories just because they are two standard deviations away from what is likely nor gets stampeded into overemphasizing false dichotomies as if we must make costly allornothing investment decisions right now to avoid theoretically possible horrible outcomes in the distant future
("nondogmatic" in bayesian parlance just means that no event is ruled out a priori by having been assigned zero probability in the prior distribution.) a responsible policy approach neither dismisses the horror stories just because they are two standard deviations away from what is likely nor gets stampeded into overemphasizing false dichotomies as if we must make costly allornothing investment decisions right now to avoid theoretically possible horrible outcomes in the distant future. in my opinion, public policy on greenhouse warming needs desperately to steer a middle course, which is not yet there, for dealing with possible climate-change disasters. this middle course combines the gradualist climate-policy ramp of ever-tighter greenhouse gas reductions that comes from mainstream mid-probability-distribution analysis (under reasonable parameter values) with the option value of waiting for better information about the thick-tailed disasters. it takes seriously whether or not possibilities exist for finding out beforehand that we are on a runaway-climate trajectory and--without "leaving it all up to geoengineering"--confronts honestly the possible options of undertaking currently politically incorrect emergency measures if a worst-case nightmare trajectory happens to materialize. the overarching concern of such a middle course is to be constructive by having some semblance of a game plan for dealing realistically with what might conceivably be coming down the road. the point is to supplement mainstream economic analysis of climate change (and mainstream ramped-up mitigation policies for dealing with it) by putting serious research dollars into early detection of rare disasters and by beginning a major public dialogue about contingency planning for worst-case scenarios perhaps akin to the way americans (at their best) might debate the pros and cons of an anti-icbm early warning system. it may well turn out that the option value of waiting for better information about catastrophic tail events is negligible because early detection is impossible, or it is too expensive, or it comes too late (this is stern 's line, and it might, or might not, happen to be true), or because nothing practical can be done about reversing greenhouse warming anyway--so we should stop stalling and start making serious down payments on catastrophe insurance by cutting co2e emissions drastically. but these are conclusions we need to reach empirically, rather than prejudging them initially. instead of declaring immediate all-out war on greenhouse gas emissions as advocated by stern maybe we would do better by steadily but surely ramping up greenhouse gas cuts over the next decade or two while simultaneously investigating seriously the nature of the runawayclimate disasters in the thick tails and what might be done realistically about them should they start to materialize. we can always come back in ten or twenty years time and declare all-out war on global-warming emissions then-- if we then think it is the best option among a better-studied reasonably considered portfolio of possible options. until we start seriously posing and trying to answer tough questions about rare globalwarming catastrophes, we will not make real progress in dealing constructively with the nightmare scenarios and we will continue to cope with them inadequately by trying to shoehorn disaster policy into an either-or response category where it won't fit. the stern review has its heart in the right place--it is not nice for us to play the role of nature's grim reaper by bequeathing the enormously unsettling uncertainty of a very small, but essentially unknown (and perhaps unknowable), probability of a planet earth that in hindsight we allowed to get wrecked on our watch. however, stern does not follow through formally on this really unsettling part of the global warming equation (which a generous interpretation of its not-convincing economic analysis might say is the underlying motivation for its overall alarmist tone) except indirectly, by choosing d [?] 0, e [?] 1, d y- [?] 5 percent, c y- [?] 1 percent (which an
What affects hydrology?
the change in the hydraulic properties affected the hydrology
What caused increase in water table?
the lower k (figure 4) and sy (figure 3(b)) found at the drained site resulted in increased water table fluctuations (figure 7-5, table i
What causes water table variations?
biogeochemical processes that rely on oxidation-reduction reactions are strongly influenced by water table variability (belyea and malmer, 2004; strack et al ., 2004
the change in the hydraulic properties affected the hydrology. the lower k (figure 4) and sy (figure 3(b)) found at the drained site resulted in increased water table fluctuations (figure 7-5, table i). in addition, the denser, more rigid drained peat was less able to swell and subside with changes in water table position (figure 7-6). these two effects (lower sy and more rigid peat) together amplify resulting in the water table variations relative to the surface (figure 7-7). biogeochemical processes that rely on oxidation-reduction reactions are strongly influenced by water table variability (belyea and malmer, 2004; strack et al ., 2004).
What is the focus of the chapter?
the focus of this chapter is to address climate impacts on water-related illnesses of primary importance to human health within the united states
Why doesn't the chapter cover impacts on national or global seafood supplies?
the peer-reviewed literature is not yet robust enough to make connections to human health outcomes in the united states
What does the projected geographic range shifts of some Gambieridiscus species to more northern latitudes may mea and where can increases of toxins can be identified?
may mean that dominant ciguatera fish poisoning toxins enter the marine food web through different species, with increases of toxins in new areas where waters are warming
process for developing chapter the chapter was developed through technical discussions of relevant evidence and expert deliberation by the report authors at several workshops, teleconferences, and email exchanges. authors considered inputs and comments submitted by the public, the national academies of sciences, and federal agencies. for additional information on the overall report process, see appendices 2 and 3. many water-related illnesses are of critical importance globally, such as cholera and hepatitis e virus, and they affect u.s. interests abroad, but the focus of this chapter is to address climate impacts on water-related illnesses of primary importance to human health within the united states. in addition, although climate change has the potential to impact national as well as global seafood supplies, this chapter does not cover these types of impacts because the peer-reviewed literature is not yet robust enough to make connections to human health outcomes in the united states. even with those constraints, the impacts of climate on water-related illness are regionally or locally specific and may include increased risks as well as benefits. for example, the projected geographic range shifts of some gambieridiscus species to more northern latitudes may mean that dominant ciguatera fish poisoning toxins enter the marine food web through different species, with increases of toxins in new areas where waters are warming and potential decreases in areas such as the yucatan and eastern caribbean sea.199
Who is Stephane Zuber?
stephane zuber is an economist at centre de recherche sens, ethique et societe (cerses) in paris and coordinator of the chaire "welfare economics and social justice" at the college d'etudes mondiales (fondation maison des sciences de l'homme, paris
Where did you get your PhD?
he got his phd in economics at toulouse school of economics
What did you work with?
he works on issues of intergenerational equity and climate policy with a focus on the problem of climate related risks: how to design equitable climate policies in an uncertain world and how to deal with catastrophic and correlated risks
stephane zuber is an economist at centre de recherche sens, ethique et societe (cerses) in paris and coordinator of the chaire "welfare economics and social justice" at the college d'etudes mondiales (fondation maison des sciences de l'homme, paris). he got his phd in economics at toulouse school of economics. he works on issues of intergenerational equity and climate policy with a focus on the problem of climate related risks: how to design equitable climate policies in an uncertain world and how to deal with catastrophic and correlated risks. his current research is how to change standard ex ante evaluations of risk, taking into account fairness issues of intraand intergenerational equity. he also works on rank-discounted utilitarianism and its implications for climate policy and population ethics. he has published several research papers in journals such as the journal of economic theory the international economic review and social choice and welfare
What is the paper introduction?
the paper introduces the so-called climate change approach, where vulnerability and adaptation measures are assessed in the context of general development policy objectives
What are the paper indicators?
the approach is based on the application of a limited set of indicators. these indicators are selected as representatives of focal development policy objectives, and a stepwise approach for addressing climate change impacts, development linkages, and the economic, social and environmental dimensions related to vulnerability and adaptation are introduced. within this context it is illustrated using three case studies how development policy indicators in practice can be used to assess climate change impacts and adaptation measures based on three case studies, namely a road project in flood prone areas of mozambique, rainwater harvesting in the agricultural sector in tanzania and malaria protection in tanzania
Conclusion of the climate change impacts?
the conclusions of the paper confirm that climate risks can be reduced at relatively low costs, but the uncertainty is still remaining about some of the wider development impacts of implementing climate change adaptation measures
the paper introduces the so-called climate change approach, where vulnerability and adaptation measures are assessed in the context of general development policy objectives. the approach is based on the application of a limited set of indicators. these indicators are selected as representatives of focal development policy objectives, and a stepwise approach for addressing climate change impacts, development linkages, and the economic, social and environmental dimensions related to vulnerability and adaptation are introduced. within this context it is illustrated using three case studies how development policy indicators in practice can be used to assess climate change impacts and adaptation measures based on three case studies, namely a road project in flood prone areas of mozambique, rainwater harvesting in the agricultural sector in tanzania and malaria protection in tanzania. the conclusions of the paper confirm that climate risks can be reduced at relatively low costs, but the uncertainty is still remaining about some of the wider development impacts of implementing climate change adaptation measures.
What happens to air quality during heatwaves?
during heatwaves air quality reduces
London soared to what temperature in 2003?
temperatures soared over 35 deg c
What levels of pollution were recorded in Enfield?
air-quality monitors in enfield recorded pollution levels of 131 parts per billion (ppb
air pollution is already a growing health problem in many cities, including london, largely because of rising traffic levels, and will get worse in large urban areas under conditions of climate change. recent studies show that relatively small rises in urban air pollution can trigger an increased number of potentially fatal heart attacks in people with vulnerable arteries. during heatwaves air quality reduces, and on 7 august 2003 the uk government issued an official heath warning to asthmatics and the elderly, stating that air pollution in london had risen to the highest level for a decade as record temperatures were recorded in the capital. air-quality monitors in enfield recorded pollution levels of 131 parts per billion (ppb), almost three times the safe limit set by the who, as temperatures soared over 35 deg c. air quality in the uk in 2003 was the worst ever recorded, with the worst place in britain for air pollution being a stretch of london's marylebone road, between baker street station and the more free ebooks http://fast-file.blogspot.com
What Ice-core records demonstrate ?
ice-core records from greenland2,4and sediment cores from the north atlantic1,9demonstrate that, over the course of the last ice age, colder conditions (stadials) alternated with warmer periods (interstadials) on timescales of several millennia
What identified in Greenland and other records ?
some of the stadial periods identified in greenland and other records coincided with massive meltwater discharges (heinrich events)1that originated from instabilities of the northern hemisphere ice sheets
what is the physical origin of Dansgaard-Oeschger oscillations
the physical origin of dansgaard-oeschger oscillations still remains uncertain
ice-core records from greenland2,4and sediment cores from the north atlantic1,9demonstrate that, over the course of the last ice age, colder conditions (stadials) alternated with warmer periods (interstadials) on timescales of several millennia. some of the stadial periods identified in greenland and other records coincided with massive meltwater discharges (heinrich events)1that originated from instabilities of the northern hemisphere ice sheets. whereas the physical origin of dansgaard-oeschger oscillations still remains uncertain10,11, their global teleconnections have been identified using climate models12,13and palaeo-proxy data5,7,14-16. however, previous proxy records have lacked the resolution to fully capture the effect of millennial-scale glacial variability on interannual to decadal tropical rainfall variability.
Do discharge standards vary from country to country?
as commented, discharge standards vary from country to country and, in many cases, from state to state, reflecting their specificities, development stage, economical level, commitment of environmental protection and various other factors
Why the quality standards for the water body is more important than the discharge standards?
much more important than the discharge standards are the quality standards for the water body because the quality in the water body is the one really associated with its uses
Why do discharge standards exist?
discharge standards exist because of a practical aspect: it is easier for the environmental agencies to control, monitor and enforce point discharges, whose responsible agent is known
as commented, discharge standards vary from country to country and, in many cases, from state to state, reflecting their specificities, development stage, economical level, commitment of environmental protection and various other factors. in any case, much more important than the discharge standards are the quality standards for the water body because the quality in the water body is the one really associated with its uses. discharge standards exist because of a practical aspect: it is easier for the environmental agencies to control, monitor and enforce point discharges, whose responsible agent is known. in a water body receiving multiple discharges, the occasional detection of non-compliance of the standards in the water body is not a trivial matter in terms of assigning those responsible. therefore, discharge standards play an important role in most countries in the world. impact of wastewater discharges to water bodies 163
On what basis the comparison between efficiencies has been made?
the comparison between the efficiencies presented in section 8.4.10 was based on the steady-state assumption, in which the influent characteristics remain constant
whether constancy  occurs in wastewater treatment plant?
in a wastewater treatment plant this constancy rarely occurs
what are the various natures of shock loads?
the shock loads can be of various natures, such as hydraulic, organic, toxic, of a nonbiodegradable substance, thermal etc
the comparison between the efficiencies presented in section 8.4.10 was based on the steady-state assumption, in which the influent characteristics remain constant. in a wastewater treatment plant this constancy rarely occurs. the variation of the flow and concentration along the day is responsible for the fact that, in reality, the system always operates in a dynamic state besides this, various other factors can contribute to a greater variability, such as stormwater flow (especially in combined systems) and industrial discharges. the latter can occur without any established periodical pattern and can be responsible for shock loads at the works. the shock loads can be of various natures, such as hydraulic, organic, toxic, of a nonbiodegradable substance, thermal etc. a wastewater treatment plant must be apt to receive overloads that occur routinely or frequently, as well as a major part of the unpredicted overloads. in the situations in which this variability component is substantial, the conception of the system must take this fact into consideration, the importance of which could even surpass the efficiency considerations discussed in section 8.4.10. the effects of shock loads are best evaluated through the study of transients, using dynamic mathematical models of the system. these simulations can use the typical or 362 basic principles of wastewater treatment
What is the Hothaps international research programme aimed at?
the hothaps international research programme aims at characterising and quantifying the effects of heat on occupational health and work capacity in different parts of the world, taking future climate change into account
What it allows to model the empirical relationship between recorded weather variables and observed workplace heat stress?
to enable estimation of occupational heat stress in countries where field studies are yet to be carried out, and thereby to evaluate the global impact of the hothaps effect
overall aims the hothaps international research programme aims at characterising and quantifying the effects of heat on occupational health and work capacity in different parts of the world, taking future climate change into account. it also aims at building knowledge about and finding effective preventive interventions (adaptation) against increasing occupational heat stress due to global climate change. specific objectives 1) develop improved methods to quantify heat exposure relevant to human health and performance (work capacity), based on an established heat stress index and routine weather station data. 2) identify heat exposure situations that create health risks and reduce the ability of people to carry out daily tasks or work, and identify the locations in the world where such effects are already common during the hot season. 3) identify occupations in countries in different climate zones that are particularly vulnerable to heatinduced health risks and work capacity suppression, due to the work being outdoors during the hot season or indoors in places where heat reducing interventions are not in place. 4) measure the impact of heat exposure on current work output and daily life activities, and, if possible, on relevant physiological and psychological indices as well as clinical disease. 5) determine in selected countries how small shifts in temperature and heat exposure due to climate change or climate variability may impact on occupational health risks and work capacity in different occupations and assess how this compares to other 'dis-abilities' caused by disease or injury. 6) model the empirical relationship between recorded weather variables and observed workplace heat stress, to enable estimation of occupational heat stress in countries where field studies are yet to be carried out, and thereby to evaluate the global impact of the hothaps effect. 7) provide input into analyses of climate change impact on population health, worker productivity and economic conditions at local, national and global level. 8) identify preventive measures ('adaptation') that can be taken to reduce the current and future climate impacts on occupational health and quantify their effectiveness in different countries and settings.
How would individuals influence the rules and resources which comprise the governance structures of carbon?
the first is for individuals to influence the rules and resources which comprise the governance structures of carbon, for instance through civic engagement (e.g., voting, lobbying, protesting, deliberative participation in policy--making
What is the scope of the public to shape systems of provision directly?
secondly, there is scope for the public to shape systems of provision directly, through engagement in environmental activism at the community level
What is an example of the scope of how the public is to shape systems of provision directly?
for example, the transition towns movement seeks to create alternative, low-- carbon systems of provision to replace existing infrastructures (haxeltine and seyfang, 2009) and is just one of many 'grassroots innovations' which aim to achieve system--wide change through collective community--based action (seyfang, 2009
moving from the actor to the structure side of the social practices diagram, and the third dimension of carbon capability (broader engagement with systems of provision and governance), we can identify two complementary courses of action. the first is for individuals to influence the rules and resources which comprise the governance structures of carbon, for instance through civic engagement (e.g., voting, lobbying, protesting, deliberative participation in policy--making). these new rules might take the form of carbon pricing, carbon allowances (for citizens, businesses or both), emissions regulation (e.g., carbon--capping of energy companies), low--carbon planning and transport policies, renewable energy policies, and so on. these measures would set quite different frameworks for potential repertoires of action, which would filter through systems of provision to influence the sets of social practices which are possible. secondly, there is scope for the public to shape systems of provision directly, through engagement in environmental activism at the community level. for example, the transition towns movement seeks to create alternative, low-- carbon systems of provision to replace existing infrastructures (haxeltine and seyfang, 2009) and is just one of many 'grassroots innovations' which aim to achieve system--wide change through collective community--based action (seyfang, 2009). clearly, the impacts and influence of such initiatives are currently limited as they are working in opposition to many societal institutions (e.g., externalizing environmental costs), and would be enormously enhanced by structural changes such as those mentioned above. improvements in the social practices element of carbon capability should arise naturally out of a combination of the other two elements providing greater understanding and
What is an example of a climate variable?
the climate variable might be the equilibrium climate sensitivity (the amount of global mean temperature change for a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide), the amount of arctic sea ice or something more complex such as the amplitude and frequency of el nino events
What is the model behavior controlled by?
the model behaviour is controlled by what may be termed internal parameters (see supplementary information) and by 'external' forcing or boundary conditions of the climate system, for example, changes in concentrations of greenhouse gases, volcanic eruptions, orbital variations and so on. the model can be used to simulate the past and the future by specifying different external forcings/boundary conditions and the behaviour of the model can be changed by varying the input parameters. in addition there are observations of past climate. in
let us assume that any climate variable we are interested in can be described by a set of mathematical functions or a model. climate models may be simplified or complex, may be derived from physical principles or empirical relationships, or may contain elements of both. examples range from simplified energy-balance models (ebms) through to complex climate or earth-system models (esms). the climate variable might be the equilibrium climate sensitivity (the amount of global mean temperature change for a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide), the amount of arctic sea ice or something more complex such as the amplitude and frequency of el nino events. the model behaviour is controlled by what may be termed internal parameters (see supplementary information) and by 'external' forcing or boundary conditions of the climate system, for example, changes in concentrations of greenhouse gases, volcanic eruptions, orbital variations and so on. the model can be used to simulate the past and the future by specifying different external forcings/boundary conditions and the behaviour of the model can be changed by varying the input parameters. in addition there are observations of past climate. in general, simplified climate models only produce output in terms of simple or aggregate variables such as global mean temperatures, and have parameters that may similarly aggregate many physical processes. more complexity is required in the climate model to disaggregate in space and time and to simulate more complex phenomena such as precipitation or sea ice. simulations and projections of the smaller-scale climate variables that are needed to address many policy questions, and for variables related to, for example, extreme events, require the most complex esms running at high resolution. even the most complex climate models are approximations of the real climate system. inadequacies or even 'errors' in models lead to inadequacies or errors in projections. some inadequacies are inherent in the specification of the model (for example, processes that are judged to be of second-order importance that are deliberately not included); others arise because limitations in computing power prevent the equations from being solved on a fine enough numerical grid, so sub-grid-scale processes must be parameterized. complex models may simulate natural climate variability such as el nino events (with varying degrees of success), but more simplified models may only simulate the forced response to a particular agent. for any climate projection there is both a systematic (epistemic) component of uncertainty and a random (aleatoric) component. the approximate partitioning of the range of spread of models between systematic (response and forcing) and random sources of uncertainty will depend on the variable, the spatial scale and the projection horizon of interest10,11. there is some potential for confusion as some studies may seek to quantify only the spread in the forced response of the climate system whereas some may seek to quantify both systematic and random components.
How many policy-relevant questions do we focus the interpretation on?
we focus the interpretation on six policy-relevant questions
Does the local stock of technology-specific knowledge Sjt-1 have a significant positive or negative impact on the flows of patents in 11 regressions out of 12?
the local stock of technology-specific knowledge sjt-1 has a significant positive impact on the flows of patents in 11 regressions out of 12
Do higher tariff rates have a statistically significant negative or positive impact on patent flows in 9 regressions?
higher tariff rates have a statistically significant negative impact on patent flows in 9 regressions
we report the results in tables 3a and 3b. estimates across technologies are relatively stable, although there are some differences, which we will discuss below. we focus the interpretation on six policy-relevant questions. 1) does accumulated knowledge facilitate the import of technology? the local stock of technology-specific knowledge sjt-1 has a significant positive impact on the flows of patents in 11 regressions out of 12. the coefficient is statistically significant at the 0.1% level. there is no doubt that patent transfers increase if the recipient country is actively involved in r&d in the same technology field. in contrast, the recipient country's level of education is statistically significant only in six regressions and has a positive impact only in three of them. this makes it impossible to derive a precise conclusion on the effect of this variable: generic absorptive capabilities are less important than technology-specific knowledge. 2) do strict intellectual property rights promote technology transfer? as mentioned earlier, this issue is very high in the political agenda. our results indicate a significant influence of strict ip rights on technology transfer in 7 regressions out of 12, with a positive sign for 5 technologies (wind energy, solar energy, hydro, cement, building, methane). the two exceptions - lighting and ocean energy - suggest that in some cases stricter ip rights may also raise legal barriers to technology competition. when ipr strictness has a significant positive effect, part of the induced patenting could also reflect a substitution between patented and non-patented knowledge flows, rather than additional technology flows. 3) do restrictions on international trade hinder technology transfer? restrictions to trade seem to be more important than ipr strictness: higher tariff rates have a statistically significant negative impact on patent flows in 9 regressions. this result is confirmed by the fact that being part of the same trade bloc significantly increases patent flows in eight regressions (with a significant
Since 2008, how much of the population are in denial of anthropogenic climate?
since 2008 the number of deniers of anthropogenic climate change has climbed to one-third or more of the population
Nameone example of how the deniers are misled
deniers are being misled (for example, by media reporting norms and institutions
What 2 countries are mentioned to be high carbon emitting countries.
high-carbon-emitting countries such as the united states and australia1,2
enormous effort has been devoted to convincing the public that anthropogenic climate change is real. however, these attempts are increasingly failing--since 2008 the number of deniers of anthropogenic climate change has climbed to one-third or more of the population in high-carbon-emitting countries such as the united states and australia1,2,7. as widespread acceptance of the reality of anthropogenic climate change is considered critical to effective responses3,4, public scepticism about anthropogenic climate change is seen as an important obstacle to meeting the climate change challenge3,8. a natural response to this challenge is to highlight how deniers are being misled (for example, by media reporting norms and institutions with vested interests6,9,10), and to redouble efforts to convince the public of the reality of anthropogenic climate change3,4. assuming that denial results from deception, ignorance or misunderstanding, change agents intuit that the answer lies in presenting the evidence for climate change in clearer, more cogent and more convincing ways4. however, this intuitive strategy may not be effective11, because believers and deniers evaluate the evidence for climate change using different frameworks12. rather than emerging organically from evidence, many attitudes represent public, cultural expressions of a person's values and political and ideological allegiances13. where, for identity reasons, people are motivated to hold a certain attitude, discrepant evidence is more
How does climate change affect agricultural productivity?
if the adverse climate shock is only for one plot of land, then the farm level demand elasticity is likely to be very high indeed approaching the case of fixed commodity prices as discussed in the previous paragraph. on the other hand, if the climate shock affects the entire region, then the farm level demand elasticity will approach the consumer demand elasticity for food, which may be quite small
How does adverse climate change affect farming?
adverse climate change will hurt farm households unambiguously when they are subsistence producers, when the climate change is localized, or when the farm level demand for their produce is elastic. the welfare loss will be greater, the more important are food expenditures (both purchases and the imputed value of ownconsumption) in farm household income, and the more important are commercial inputs in production. conversely, it is entirely possible for farm households to benefit from adverse climate developments if the adverse shock is widespread, if farm level demand for their product is quite inelastic, if there are few sources of off-farm income, if food is a small share of expenditures and if supply response is relatively lowv
widespread reductions in agricultural productivity (relative to their baseline realization) will surely result in reduced output and therefore higher prices (again, relative to baseline). the extent of the price rise will depend on the relative price elasticities of commodity supply and farm level demand - and the latter will depend on the scope of the climate shock. if the adverse climate shock is only for one plot of land, then the farm level demand elasticity is likely to be very high indeed approaching the case of fixed commodity prices as discussed in the previous paragraph. on the other hand, if the climate shock affects the entire region, then the farm level demand elasticity will approach the consumer demand elasticity for food, which may be quite small. if the farm level demand elasticity for agricultural products is inelastic (less than one in absolute value, such that a 1% rise in prices results in a less than 1% decline in demand), then farm producer returns will actually rise in the wake of an adverse productivity shock. this makes intuitive sense, since inelastic demands translate into price rises that exceed the proportionate decline in quantity supplied such their product (producer revenue) rises. furthermore, the size of the ensuing price rise will be larger, the smaller is the farm supply elasticity with respect to price. so putting the spending and earnings sides together, adverse climate change will hurt farm households unambiguously when they are subsistence producers, when the climate change is localized, or when the farm level demand for their produce is elastic. the welfare loss will be greater, the more important are food expenditures (both purchases and the imputed value of ownconsumption) in farm household income, and the more important are commercial inputs in production. conversely, it is entirely possible for farm households to benefit from adverse climate developments if the adverse shock is widespread, if farm level demand for their product is quite inelastic, if there are few sources of off-farm income, if food is a small share of expenditures and if supply response is relatively lowv.
When were introduduced these less reductionist conceptual and analytical paradigms?
the origins of these less reductionist conceptual and analytical paradigms are to be found in hazards research and ecological respectively and were introduced into climate change research in the late-1990s (vulnerability) and early 2000s (resilience
What do they offer?
they offer ways of exploring sensitivities of socio-ecological systems to climate perturbations - and other environmental and social stresses - without being dependent upon the predictive claims of climate modelling
Have these approaches overturned the standard climate impact methodology? How?
although they have gained some visibility in recent climate change research, because they are less dependent on model-based climate projections vulnerability and resilience approaches to understanding climate-society relationships have been slow to overturn the standard ipcc climate impact methodology103
the origins of these less reductionist conceptual and analytical paradigms are to be found in hazards research and ecological respectively and were introduced into climate change research in the late-1990s (vulnerability) and early 2000s (resilience). they offer ways of exploring sensitivities of socio-ecological systems to climate perturbations - and other environmental and social stresses - without being dependent upon the predictive claims of climate modelling. although they have gained some visibility in recent climate change research, because they are less dependent on model-based climate projections vulnerability and resilience approaches to understanding climate-society relationships have been slow to overturn the standard ipcc climate impact methodology103
What is an example of a Community-based efforts that use informal social networks to help spread the word?
neighborhood cooperation in a campaign to caulk and weather-strip homes--can make multicomponent programs more effective
Which regulatory approaches are available?
tightening standards for energy equipment, especially home insulation and waterheaters where energy efficiency is a major but invisible product attribute
community-based efforts that use informal social networks to help spread the word--for example, neighborhood cooperation in a campaign to caulk and weather-strip homes--can make multicomponent programs more effective.27 finally, there is room for regulatory approaches, such as tightening standards for energy equipment, especially home insulation and waterheaters where energy efficiency is a major but invisible product attribute. rapidly rising prices for oil and other energy products highlight the need for savings for householders and policymakers alike. but households still do not know what actions best achieve these needed savings, and public policies currently do not provide the needed support to turn household awareness into effective action. if we apply and build on the lessons of the energy crises of the 1970s and early 1980s, individuals and policymakers can act more effectively now. for many understandable reasons, people do not necessarily act in their best financial interest or in ways that yield the greatest environmental benefit--even if they want to. achieving change quickly and effectively depends on combining information, incentives, and other policy approaches with sensitivity to how householders think and the many factors that influence their choices.
What means the adaptive capacity of the construction sector Increasing the flexibility of capacity of the construction sector
adaptive capacity of the construction sector increasing the flexibility of capacity of the construction sector means that damaged buildings and infrastructure can be repaired or replaced more quickly following a disaster, reducing lost production
Can it represent the ability of workers to increase their productivity, or the possibility of workers and equipments from outside the affected region to move there to speed up reconstruction?
this can represent, for example, the ability of workers to increase their productivity, or the possibility of workers and equipments from outside the affected region to move there to speed up reconstruction
What are the benefits brought by ARIO?
ario allows us to explore the benefits of such flexibility in terms of avoided indirect costs through running scenarios of its sectoral overproduction parameters
adaptive capacity of the construction sector increasing the flexibility of capacity of the construction sector means that damaged buildings and infrastructure can be repaired or replaced more quickly following a disaster, reducing lost production. this can represent, for example, the ability of workers to increase their productivity, or the possibility of workers and equipments from outside the affected region to move there to speed up reconstruction. ario allows us to explore the benefits of such flexibility in terms of avoided indirect costs through running scenarios of its sectoral overproduction parameters. we find that, for the july 2005 event, the indirect effect of the disaster on the local economy can vary by a factor of 4 (fig. 9 ), depending on the amplitude and quickness of response of the construction sector. from a policy perspective, this high sensitivity is good news, as it suggests that large economic losses can be avoided with increased flexibility in the construction sector production capacity. the flexibility depends heavily on the pre-event conditions; for example, if idle capacities are present (e.g. unused equipment) they can be mobilized to cope with the disaster (west and lenze 1994 hallegatte and ghil 2008b ), whereas if capacities are fully used then no additional capacity can be mobilized. the flexibility of the construction section could be enhanced through: * enabling qualified workers to settle down temporarily in the affected region (e.g. by providing working permit or helping workers to find accommodation). * organising and sharing reconstruction resources among regions, states or cities and setting super-national policies to ensure reconstruction capacity is adequate to cope with possible disasters. * empowering governments to mobilizing their workers (e.g., soldiers) and their equipments to speed up reconstruction. past disasters illustrate the barriers to efficient reconstruction and suggest good practices. for instance, in the katrina aftermath, many qualified workers from the entire u.s. moved to new orleans to help reconstruct the city and capture higher construction-sector wages. most of these workers, however, had to leave the area rapidly because they could not find proper accommodation or because of insufficient
How do we obtain the difference-of-means estimators?
by regressing the variable agreement support on a set of dummy variables for each value of each dimension
How do We report errors for these estimates?
clustered by respondent to account for within respondent correlations in responses
How are these conditional treatment effects identified in our fully randomized conjoint experiment as long as the respondent characteristics are not affected by the treatments
non-parametrically
we obtain the difference-of-means estimators by regressing the variable agreement support on a set of dummy variables for each value of each dimension (with the exclusion of one value in each dimension as the baseline).6 the regression coefficient for each dummy variable indicates the average marginal component-specific effect of that value of the dimension relative to the omitted value of that dimension. we report standard errors for these estimates clustered by respondent to account for within respondent correlations in responses. we also reestimated the effects using a probit model. the results (fig. s8) remain unchanged. to help interpret the main findings, our analysis also explore how the treatment effects vary across different types of respondents in our sample. these conditional treatment effects are also non-parametrically identified in our fully randomized conjoint experiment as long as the respondent characteristics are not affected by the treatments. this assumption appears plausible in our setting. predicted levels of support we compare the levels of support for two hypothetical agreements. the first scenario roughly corresponds to the agreement that is discussed in ongoing international efforts. specifically, we assume that costs are in the order of 2% of gdp, only rich countries pay, 160 countries will participate, they account for 60% of global emissions and the mitigation efforts will be monitored by the united nations without having the power to impose any sanctions if a country does not meet its commitments. the second scenario generally maximizes support: average household costs are 0.5% of gdp and distributed proportional to current emissions, 160 countries will participate that together account for 80% of global emissions, their efforts will be monitored by an independent commission and there will be a small sanction if commitments are not met. to generate the predicted levels of support for different climate agreements we draw on the rating part of the conjoint analysis. for each conjoint comparison we asked respondents:
What are the climate scenarios are characterized by?
the climate scenarios are characterized by the imposition of a constraint on the atmospheric global ghg concentration, to limit its level at 450 ppmv and at 550 ppmv by 2100 (however, only co2 emission results are discussed in this article
Which level of atmospheric global GHG concentration are aimed to be imposed/limited?
the climate scenarios are characterized by the imposition of a constraint on the atmospheric global ghg concentration, to limit its level at 450 ppmv and at 550 ppmv by 2100 (however, only co2 emission results are discussed in this article
Which value of GHG concentration is reached in the base case?
in the base case, the ghg concentration reaches 584 ppmv in 2100
the climate scenarios are characterized by the imposition of a constraint on the atmospheric global ghg concentration, to limit its level at 450 ppmv and at 550 ppmv by 2100 (however, only co2 emission results are discussed in this article). these levels were chosen because they are frequently used in energy studies (morita, 2000); of course, they represent possible futures among many other possibilities. in the base case, the ghg concentration reaches 584 ppmv in 2100. consequently, the 550 ppmv scenario represents a relatively modest constraint on the co2 concentration level, compared to the 450 ppmv scenario, reflecting a less stringent environmental constraint, but involving higher climate adaptation costs in addition to the technological costs (only mitigation costs are included in this version of the model). in other words, any climate policy based on a higher concentration means accepting to pay for higher adaptation costs and lower mitigation costs.
What is the impression provided by the LMA analysis and the modern geographical distribution of the Eocene insect taxa?
the overall impression provided by the leaf physiognomic evidence (lma), the bioclimatic analysis from plants, and the modern geographical distribution of the eocene insect taxa is that climate was fairly uniformly microthermal- mesothermal and equable (i.e., no extremes of temperature) and mesic along the 1000 km north-south transect and across the 700 km2of the okanagan highlands in the late early eocene to early middle eocene
What does the result reflect?
this result reflects the restriction of fossil sites to lake and coal swamp sediments; sites likely to have sat in low points in the landscape and where water was not a limiting factor for plant growth (wolfe and wehr 1987; cevallos-ferriz et al. 1991
What is unlikely according to Greenwood?
it is unlikely that the leaves of dicots encountered in the sediments reflect anything other than the local flora, as chartaceous leaves have not been found transported more than a few hundreds of metres down streams (greenwood 1992; steart et al. 2003
the overall impression provided by the leaf physiognomic evidence (lma), the bioclimatic analysis from plants, and the modern geographical distribution of the eocene insect taxa is that climate was fairly uniformly microthermal- mesothermal and equable (i.e., no extremes of temperature) and mesic along the 1000 km north-south transect and across the 700 km2of the okanagan highlands in the late early eocene to early middle eocene. in part, this result reflects the restriction of fossil sites to lake and coal swamp sediments; sites likely to have sat in low points in the landscape and where water was not a limiting factor for plant growth (wolfe and wehr 1987; cevallos-ferriz et al. 1991). some of the foliage of microthermal conifers (e.g., some pinaceae, such as abies may have been transported to these lakes via streams from nearby high points in the landscape (e.g., spicer and wolfe 1987), but the character of much of the conifer remains, such as chamaecyparis cunninghammia metasequoia sequoia and thuja suggests a more local source (dillhoff et al. 2005). it is unlikely that the leaves of dicots encountered in the sediments reflect anything other than the local flora, as chartaceous leaves have not been found transported more than a few hundreds of metres down streams (greenwood 1992; steart et al. 2003). the mixture of fossil insect taxa in the okanagan highlands whose nlrs are both thermophilic and temperateassociated is consistent with the plant-based bioclimatic analysis of moderate mat (i.e., mat 10-15  c) together with mild winters (i.e., low seasonality, cmmt 2  c and likely 5 degc), as may be found today in low-latitude montane regions. this mixture conforms to data from other biota and other regions worldwide in the paleogene (see earlier references), and is most easily explained by heightened equability. further analysis is required to establish whether plant taxon dominance varies from sites to site, and therefore across the okanagan eocene landscape.
Who must read this book?
the book is a must for oceanographers, particularly physical oceanographers, and should be of high interest to atmospheric and climate scientists
What does WOCE represent?
suffice it to say that woce clearly represents the state of the ocean in the 1990s and that the ocean circulation has been better understood because of woce
Who would enjoy this book?
i recommend this book to those who enjoy the quest for ocean knowledge and who have enjoyed books like the evolution of physical oceanography like that book, many chapters of this book individually encapsulate a knowledge of a large-scale oceanographic subject from its history to ongoing questions for future research
suffice it to say that woce clearly represents the state of the ocean in the 1990s and that the ocean circulation has been better understood because of woce. the culmination of woce's achievement is this book, which is filled with the talents of 71 stimulating authors, who deserve the individual naming this review has given. i recommend this book to those who enjoy the quest for ocean knowledge and who have enjoyed books like the evolution of physical oceanography like that book, many chapters of this book individually encapsulate a knowledge of a large-scale oceanographic subject from its history to ongoing questions for future research. the book is a must for oceanographers, particularly physical oceanographers, and should be of high interest to atmospheric and climate scientists. as a teacher in both physical oceanography and in atmospheric science, i found the book very up-to-date, in its discussions on the large-scale ocean circulation. i also liked the many thought provoking questions that the authors produced along the way. i could see asking graduate students to read and discuss many of the subjects to give them an appreciation of the many ways in which our understanding of ocean circulation has come about, whether it be from a new instrument development to a new view of the ocean. who knows? maybe a graduate student, after reading wunsch's perception of the views of the ocean circulation as a "multiple personality disorder", will be inspired to unite the different views of the ocean presented in this enjoyable book.
What are individuals faced with every day?
a barrage of multimedia messages about all types of issues
What area of trust have become an issue?
arena of climate change communication
What example was used?
hastings et al., 2004
every day, most individuals are faced with a barrage of multimedia messages about all types of issues and are often sophisticated in their interpretation of those; receivers do not blindly trust every piece of information they receive. individuals are increasingly aware of the power of the media and often skeptical or questioning of communications approaches (hastings et al., 2004). in an age of marketing and spin, issues of trust have come to the fore in the arena of climate change communication, and thus the repeated use of fear approaches may be damaging for the source organization. trust in a
Which opening eliminates AMOC overshoot?
amoc overshoot is eliminated in the case of the open bering strait
Which Ocean is involved in the transport of melt water?
the elimination of the overshoot in the open bering strait case is presumably due to the meltwater transport from the pacific ocean
Which sea does this melt water go to?
presumably due to the meltwater transport from the pacific ocean into the nordic sea
co2 and orbital forcing. however, amoc overshoot is eliminated in the case of the open bering strait (fig. 23). with the switch-off the meltwater forcing, amoc recovers much slower than that in the closed bering strait case. when the amoc in the closed bering strait case reaches the maximum at 11ka, the amoc in the open bering strait case is only about 10 sv. the elimination of the overshoot in the open bering strait case is presumably due to the meltwater transport from the pacific ocean into the nordic sea, where the convective instability that is responsible for amoc overshoot occurs. with the closed bering strait, the positive surface density anomaly triggered by the switch-off the meltwater discharge induces sea level drops as a result of the geostrophic adjustment. the lower sea level induces more inflow of the salty and warmer atlantic water into nordic sea. because salinity dominates the density over temperature in polar region, the inflow of salty and warmer water induces further density increase of surface water and acts as a positive feedback to the original density anomaly. in contrast, with the opening of bering strait, the sea level drops from the original density anomaly in the nordic sea induces inflow of both the salty atlantic and fresh pacific water. the fresh pacific water acts as a negative feedback to slow down the positive feedback induced by the atlantic inflow, and eventually prevents the convective instability and overshoot in the nordic sea. in summary, bering strait opening could induce further weakening of the amoc in summary, bering strait opening could induce further weakening of the amoc through meltwater transport from the pacific, but its effect on temperature reduction is still minimal. because the climate impact of bering strait opening still relies on its effect on amoc, it cannot resolve the challenge that amoc reduction is insufficient to produce the 8~10 oc cooling reconstructed from the gisp2 oxygen isotopes [cuffey and clow, 1997].
What does the flowsheet comprises?
the flowsheet comprises the sequential anaerobic and aerobic biological treatment units (uasb reactor, trickling filter and secondary sedimentation tank), as well as the dewatering unit
What are the uses of Drying beds?
drying beds have been frequently used for dewatering of the sludge in small-sized plants
Who was the inventor of Wastewater treatment ?
an innovative and compact configuration of this treatment system was developed by the federal university of minas gerais (brazil
wastewater treatment plants that use uasb reactors followed by trickling filters present a simple flowsheet (figure 29.6). basically, besides the preliminary treatment units (screens and grit chambers), the flowsheet comprises the sequential anaerobic and aerobic biological treatment units (uasb reactor, trickling filter and secondary sedimentation tank), as well as the dewatering unit. notice that, in this configuration, the excess aerobic sludge removed from the secondary sedimentation tank is returned to the uasb reactor for thickening and anaerobic digestion. therefore, with this flowsheet, primary sedimentation tanks and separate units for thickening and anaerobic digestion of the excess aerobic sludge are not required, different from the conventional treatment plants that use trickling filters (figure 43.3). the sludge wasted from uasb reactors is already thickened and stabilised, and can be sent directly for dewatering and final disposal. drying beds have been frequently used for dewatering of the sludge in small-sized plants. an innovative and compact configuration of this treatment system was developed by the federal university of minas gerais (brazil) for sewage treatment in
How many species of extant mammals do the five latitudinal zones have?
together the five latitudinal zones have 363 species of extant mammals
Does family, genus and species richness in each latitudinal zone increase or decrease?
family, genus and species richness in each latitudinal zone decreases substantially with increasing latitude
What is the richness ratio from zone A to zone E?
the richness ratio of zone a to zone e is 3.6
together the five latitudinal zones have 363 species of extant mammals, belonging to 28 families and 109 genera. family, genus and species richness in each latitudinal zone decreases substantially with increasing latitude (table 1). while mean species richness per quadrat also decreases with latitude (table 1), the decline is smaller than for total species richness. the richness ratio of zone a to zone e is 3.6 for entire zones and 2.2 for quadrats. also, the ratio of total to mean species richness within each zone decreases from zones a to e (table 1). these patterns imply that faunas at higher latitudes are more similar and that spatial turnover is lower at higher latitudes. beta diversity of mammalian faunas decreases with latitude at the species, genus and family levels, although the differences between latitudinal zones are much lower for genus and family than for species (fig. 2). (pairs of quadrats with similar faunas have low negative values of ln
What was the GHCNM v3 quality controlled unadjusted data highly correlated with?
th ese data are highly correlated r >= 0.995) with available, but sparser, climatological data from concord miller-rushing and primack, 2008 
Which observatory collected the monthly temperature data from 1831-1884?
monthly temperature data from 1831-1884 collected by the blue hill meteorological observatory
How were mean annual temperatures calculated?
mean annual temperatures fig. 1a were calculated by averaging the mean monthly temperatures for each year
mean monthly temperatures (1885-present) at great blue hill, ~33 km southeast of concord were obtained from noaa's global historical climatology network (http:// ncdc.noaa.gov/ghcnm/). we used the ghcnm v3 quality controlled unadjusted data. th ese data are highly correlated r >= 0.995) with available, but sparser, climatological data from concord miller-rushing and primack, 2008 ). monthly temperature data from 1831-1884 collected by the blue hill meteorological observatory were provided to us by a. miller-rushing. mean annual temperatures fig. 1a were calculated by averaging the mean monthly temperatures for each year. mean spring temperatures fig. 1b were calculated as the average of each year's february-may mean monthly temperatures. th ese months were used because they had been found previously to represent the months that are most predictive of flowering time miller-rushing and primack, 2008 primack et al., 2009 ).
What does the analysis demonstrate ?
it demonstrates the potential of climate change to dramatically affect air quality on decadal scales relevant to air quality policy
What does the analysis suggest ?
this suggests that climate change has had already a major effect on the accountability of emission control strategies over the past 2-3 decades, preventing achievement of the ozone air quality standard
In what years was the analysis done ?
1980-2006
we conclude from this analysis that the decrease in mid-latitude cyclones over the 1980-2006 has offset half of the air quality gains in the northeast u.s. that should have been achieved from reduction of anthropogenic emissions over that period. this suggests that climate change has had already a major effect on the accountability of emission control strategies over the past 2-3 decades, preventing achievement of the ozone air quality standard. it demonstrates the potential of climate change to dramatically affect air quality on decadal scales relevant to air quality policy. future attention to this issue is necessary in view of the consistent predictions from gcms that 21st-century climate change will decrease the frequency of mid-latitude cyclones (lambert and fyfe, 2006).
Biological agents, geological agents?
impact on the planet on a geological scale
It was still a vision of man "as a prisoner of climate,"?
both collectively and as individuals
no point in human history when humans were not biological agents?
become geological agents only historically
biological agents, geological agents--two different names with very different consequences. environmental history, to go by crosby's masterful survey of the origins and the state of the field in 1995 has much to do with biology and geography but hardly ever imagined human impact on the planet on a geological scale. it was still a vision of man "as a prisoner of climate," as crosby put it quoting braudel, and not of man as the maker of it.26to call human beings geological agents is to scale up our imagination of the human. humans are biological agents, both collectively and as individuals. they have always been so. there was no point in human history when humans were not biological agents. but we can become geological agents only historically and collectively, that is, when we have reached
Do IAMs enjoy the same epistemic status as their natural science counterparts?
we maintain that iams enjoy an epistemic status different from their natural science counterparts
How have economists built their models?
to build their models, economists have had to embrace assumptions that reflect long-standing practices within economics but that nonetheless are associated with well-known conceptual problems
Is scientific understanding of the climate system worsening?
scientific understanding of the climate system is continuously improving. for example, the review article by hall and behl 2006 highlights the consequences of climate instability and rapid large-scale shifts in global climate for the economic analysis of climate change
how can we reconcile the apparent disconnect between science, which provides an objective characterization of the potentially catastrophic implications of climate change, and economics, which claims that aggressively mitigating climate change is too costly? we maintain that iams enjoy an epistemic status different from their natural science counterparts, and that economic models mix descriptive analysis and value judgments in ways that deserve close and critical scrutiny. to build their models, economists have had to embrace assumptions that reflect long-standing practices within economics but that nonetheless are associated with well-known conceptual problems. alternative models, built on different assumptions that are equally as plausible as those embedded in commonly cited iams, would lead to qualitatively different results (cline 1992 stern 2006 ackerman and finlayson 2006 ). scientific understanding of the climate system is continuously improving. for example, the review article by hall and behl 2006 highlights the consequences of climate instability and rapid large-scale shifts in global climate for the economic analysis of climate change. lenton et al. 2008 identify and catalogue potential "tipping elements" in the climate system. in addition, a variety of decision-making frameworks extending beyond the conventional utility-maximizing economic component of iams have been identified (toth et al. 2001 ). these include "tolerable windows" and "safe landing" approaches, "robust decision-making," and "costeffectiveness analysis," among others. a recent conference was devoted to the implications of "avoiding dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system" as a guide to policy-making (schellnhuber et al. 2006 ). our objective in this article is not to provide a comprehensive review of the most recent developments in climate science2or an all-encompassing treatment of decision-making with regard to climate. rather, our critique focuses on the conceptual economic framework of the most common utility-maximizing iams and on the specific details of how these models
What gives evidence of fast changing climate in the Arctic?
this is shown by increased temperatures, loss of summer sea ice, earlier snow melt, impacts on ecosystems, and increased economic access
What is the cause for temperature increases being amplified in the Arctic?
temperature increases in response to greenhouse gases are amplified in the arctic through feedback processes associated with shifts in albedo, ocean and land heat storage, and near-surface longwave radiation fluxes
What do the latest climate model projections (CMIP5) show?
using the most recent set of climate model projections (cmip5), multimodel mean temperature projections show an arctic-wide end of century increase of 13 [?] c in late fall and 5 [?] c in late spring for a business-as-usual emission scenario (rcp8.5) in contrast to 7 [?] c in late fall and 3 [?] c in late spring if civilization follows a mitigation scenario (rcp4.5
the climate in the arctic is changing faster than in midlatitudes. this is shown by increased temperatures, loss of summer sea ice, earlier snow melt, impacts on ecosystems, and increased economic access. arctic sea ice volume has decreased by 75% since the 1980s. long-lasting global anthropogenic forcing from carbon dioxide has increased over the previous decades and is anticipated to increase over the next decades. temperature increases in response to greenhouse gases are amplified in the arctic through feedback processes associated with shifts in albedo, ocean and land heat storage, and near-surface longwave radiation fluxes. thus, for the next few decades out to 2040, continuing environmental changes in the arctic are very likely, and the appropriate response is to plan for adaptation to these changes. for example, it is very likely that the arctic ocean will become seasonally nearly sea ice free before 2050 and possibly within a decade or two, which in turn will further increase arctic temperatures, economic access, and ecological shifts. mitigation becomes an important option to reduce potential arctic impacts in the second half of the 21st century. using the most recent set of climate model projections (cmip5), multimodel mean temperature projections show an arctic-wide end of century increase of 13 [?] c in late fall and 5 [?] c in late spring for a business-as-usual emission scenario (rcp8.5) in contrast to 7 [?] c in late fall and 3 [?] c in late spring if civilization follows a mitigation scenario (rcp4.5). such temperature increases demonstrate the heightened sensitivity of the arctic to greenhouse gas forcing.
What have recent years seen according to Carleton Hsiang?
recent years have seen rapid innovation in the methods used to identify climatic influences on economies, with correspondingly rapid growth of insights that are reshaping how we understand the breadth and importance of climate-society interactions (carleton hsiang 2016, dell et al. 2014
Give examples of key innovations?
key innovations have been in research design, the measurement of climatic factors, and the formulation of econometric models
How important has aggregation and synthesis been?
aggregation and synthesis of econometric findings have demonstrated a striking replicability of many recent findings across contexts, lending credibility both to the techniques that generate these results and to exercises where these results are applied to simulations of recent history or future climate changes
recent years have seen rapid innovation in the methods used to identify climatic influences on economies, with correspondingly rapid growth of insights that are reshaping how we understand the breadth and importance of climate-society interactions (carleton hsiang 2016, dell et al. 2014). key innovations have been in research design, the measurement of climatic factors, and the formulation of econometric models. in sharp contrast to the folk wisdom that "climate is not weather," here i demonstrate that under fairly general conditions, weather variation, as it is used in many recent studies, exactly identifies the effect of climate--although many studies to date have not properly computed the effect of climatic changes when using these weather-derived parameters. aggregation and synthesis of econometric findings have demonstrated a striking replicability of many recent findings across contexts, lending credibility both to the techniques that generate these results and to exercises where these results are applied to simulations of recent history or future climate changes. many first-order partial equilibrium results are now well understood, yet major methodological innovations are still required to a tackle the key challenges of identifying mechanisms, b measure adaptation costs, general equilibrium, and price responses, c evaluate the effects of unprecedented events, and d more deeply integrate with theoretical and numerical policy models.
In this text, what is the term used for forests whose characteristics are tied to the frequent presence of clouds and mist?
the cloud forest will simply refer to forests whose characteristics are tied to the frequent presence of clouds and mist
According to one definition, what is any cloud which touches the ground called?
fog as any cloud which touches the ground
Some definitions of â€˜cloud forestâ€™ use the size of what?
other definitions that rely on droplet size
french; and nebelwald and wolkenwald in german. for our purposes, the cloud forest will simply refer to forests whose characteristics are tied to the frequent presence of clouds and mist. there are various definitions that distinguish between fog and clouds. one definition defines fog as any cloud which touches the ground and thus one might argue that these forests should be called fog forests. however, other definitions that rely on droplet size or formation mechanisms favor the cloud forest appellation. we z will use the common names cloud forest cf and z tropical montane cloud forest tmcf several ways to subdivide cloud forests have been z presented in the literature. stadtmuller 1987 stressed
What is Thornton in Exercise ?
on inspection it was clear that the responses of the chosen models were considerably more complicated than those of the third approximation models used in the previous exercise (thornton et al., 2006). there it was found by stepwise regression that a cubic term was superfluous to describe the projections over time
What is a preliminary investigation?
in the current case, we made a preliminary investigation of the functional forms of the projections using cluster analysis. all pixels from each of the four models for scenario a1b were clustered for precipitation, tmax and tmin using the values of the five periods as clustering variates
What's in the masonry instructions?
the threshold was set to produce from 40 to 100 clusters which were ranked by the number of pixels and the cluster means were used to inspect the functional form. the first five clusters normally covered 80 to 90 percent of the pixels in for any given model
on inspection it was clear that the responses of the chosen models were considerably more complicated than those of the third approximation models used in the previous exercise (thornton et al., 2006). there it was found by stepwise regression that a cubic term was superfluous to describe the projections over time. in the current case, we made a preliminary investigation of the functional forms of the projections using cluster analysis. all pixels from each of the four models for scenario a1b were clustered for precipitation, tmax and tmin using the values of the five periods as clustering variates. we used a leader clustering algorithm (hartigan, 1975) to cope with the volume of data. the threshold was set to produce from 40 to 100 clusters which were ranked by the number of pixels and the cluster means were used to inspect the functional form. the first five clusters normally covered 80 to 90 percent of the pixels in for any given model.
What are the three main glaciers indicated in the article?
the only other comprehensive modelling assessment of dynamic mass-loss from the three major outlet glaciers jakobshavn, helheim and kangerdlugssuaq
What is the suggested increase in sea level rise?
suggested an equivalent of ~1.1 mm of increased sea level
And when you include the dynamic disturbances and feedbacks induced by the retreat of the glaciers, what is the estimate?
when including dynamic perturbations and feedbacks induced by glacier retreat, we produce a substantially larger estimate of 8-17 mm slr in dynamic mass-loss from these glaciers by 2100
the only other comprehensive modelling assessment of dynamic mass-loss from the three major outlet glaciers jakobshavn, helheim and kangerdlugssuaq suggested an equivalent of ~1.1 mm of increased sea level by 210026. that study, however, applied a single dynamic perturbation at the beginning of the 21st century that produced mass losses similar to present, but the model did not have the ability to simulate retreat. when including dynamic perturbations and feedbacks induced by glacier retreat, we produce a substantially larger estimate of 8-17 mm slr in dynamic mass-loss from these glaciers by 2100. the four glaciers studied here drain 22% of the entire ice sheet. a first order upscaling of their dynamic mass loss to the whole of greenland by multiplying by a factor five, results in 40-85 mm slr by 2100 from dynamic changes. the smb-only contribution from different climate models has previously been estimated to be between 25-98 mm of slr by 210023. combined with our dynamic upscaling, this would produce a total slr contribution from greenland of 65-183 mm by the year 2100. we stress, however, that such an estimate has large uncertainties and ignores important variations in the geometry of individual outlet glacier systems.
What happens if incomes grow, but the environment is damaged due to BAU emissions?
if incomes grow, but the environment is damaged due to bau emissions, then the relative price of environmental goods, in terms of social willingness-to-pay, will rise sharply (see p58 of the review
What the author apointed that will very likely be a misguided policy?
thus, making alternative (non-mitigation) investments with the intent of 'buying down' climate damage later will very likely be a misguided policy
What do Sterner and Persson [citation] show?
sterner and persson [citation] even show that, given certain assumptions about the share of environmental goods in human welfare, damages to these goods due to climate change, and substitutability between man-made and environmental capital, strong and urgent reductions in ghg emissions can be justified, despite a higher social discount rate
we must emphasise very strongly, however, that the formal modelling we have presented still leaves out key issues that would raise estimated damages further. among these issues, sterner and persson [citation] are quite right to highlight the importance of treating environmental goods as separate from other goods. this contrasts with the aggregated treatment of climate damages in almost all studies, including chapter 6 of the review. if incomes grow, but the environment is damaged due to bau emissions, then the relative price of environmental goods, in terms of social willingness-to-pay, will rise sharply (see p58 of the review). thus, making alternative (non-mitigation) investments with the intent of 'buying down' climate damage later will very likely be a misguided policy. sterner and persson [citation] even show that, given certain assumptions about the share of environmental goods in human welfare, damages to these goods due to climate change, and substitutability between man-made and environmental capital, strong and urgent reductions in ghg emissions can be justified, despite a higher social discount rate. this perhaps represents an extreme case, where the risks of climate change
what is governmentality?
governmentality a foucauldian governmentality approach is another fruitful lens to consider issues of governance and authority in carbon accounting because of foucault's longstanding interest in how power is expressed and can be identified through day-to-day practices and routine activities (including, for instance, calculation and book-keeping) (foucault 1991; 2007
what is self regulation of behaviour?
according to foucault since the mid-18th century 'government' the self-regulation of behaviour, especially in the form of 'self-control' by apparently freely choosing autonomous subjects has been the main way states have sought to control their populations (foucault 1991
what is governmentality theory?
according to governmentality theory scholars need to pay close attention: first, to how objects of government are defined and how problems are framed (termed 'rationalities'), and second, how they are governed through 'technologies' (dean 1999). from a governmentality perspective, calculation and measurement are critical to governance processes, as dean
governmentality a foucauldian governmentality approach is another fruitful lens to consider issues of governance and authority in carbon accounting because of foucault's longstanding interest in how power is expressed and can be identified through day-to-day practices and routine activities (including, for instance, calculation and book-keeping) (foucault 1991; 2007). according to foucault since the mid-18th century 'government' the self-regulation of behaviour, especially in the form of 'self-control' by apparently freely choosing autonomous subjects has been the main way states have sought to control their populations (foucault 1991). whilst the majority of work on governmentality has concentrated on the selfregulation of individual behaviour (amongst the general public), there is a growing interest in testing the applicability of such ideas to institutions such as non-governmental organisations and corporations (hughes 2001; sending and neumann 2006); and it is this sub-set of the 10 10 literature that we primarily draw upon here. the pervasiveness of financial accounting in modern society signals the potentially significant role it might play in 'government'. according to governmentality theory scholars need to pay close attention: first, to how objects of government are defined and how problems are framed (termed 'rationalities'), and second, how they are governed through 'technologies' (dean 1999). from a governmentality perspective, calculation and measurement are critical to governance processes, as dean (1999: 11, emphasis added) explains:
What type of ecosystems do megaherbivores maintain?
megaherbivores maintain grass-dominated ecosystems
megaherbivores (that is, herbivores larger than a human) can be keystone species that are capable of massive vegetation disturbance that contributes to landscape heterogeneity and potentially to rapid alterations in fuel structure that can have profound impacts on fire regimes. this is because megaherbivores maintain grass-dominated ecosystems, which have very different fire regimes compared to forests and shrublands. for instance, most grassfueled fires are frequent and of low intensity, but fires in woody vegetation with similar climatic conditions are less frequent and, although they can be of low intensity in some forest types, often they can reach very high intensity and consume large amounts of biomass (knapp and others 2005 ). in contrast to insect epidemics that exert a pulse-like (sensus bender and others 1984 effect on fire regimes, megaherbivores exert a press-like sustained effect that maintain grass-dominated ecosystems. these contemporary patterns provide insights into potential historical effects of megaherbivores on fire regimes. for example, in north america during a brief 500 year period toward the end of the pleistocene, four genera of megaherbivores went extinct (barnosky and others 2004 faith and surovell 2009 ). the mass disappearance of megafauna at this time has been hypothesized to have led to a rapid change in landscape fuel patterns, from grass-dominated to woody-dominated systems. coupled with the landscape change in fuel
Where malaria  disease is significant feature ?
ater texts confirm that the disease had become a significant feature in greek life
Where the malaria began with evidence?
indeed, there is evidence that a major wave of malaria began with the flowering of greek civilization and transmission rates continued to increase throughout the period of the roman empire 2,62 
Explain the detailed course of description?
hippocrates (460-377 b.c.) gave exquisitely detailed descriptions of the course and relative severity of tertian versus quartan infections 63 ). he also noted their association with wetlands and even observed that splenomegaly (enlarged spleen, often a symptom of chronic malaria infection) was particularly prevalent in people living in marshy areas
we cannot be certain that this was malaria, but the reference to killing fevers at harvest time is one that recurs many times in other descriptions of malaria. later texts confirm that the disease had become a significant feature in greek life. indeed, there is evidence that a major wave of malaria began with the flowering of greek civilization and transmission rates continued to increase throughout the period of the roman empire 2,62 ). hippocrates (460-377 b.c.) gave exquisitely detailed descriptions of the course and relative severity of tertian versus quartan infections 63 ). he also noted their association with wetlands and even observed that splenomegaly (enlarged spleen, often a symptom of chronic malaria infection) was particularly prevalent in people living in marshy areas. praxagoras, heraclides, and other medical writers gave similar descriptions, from which it appears that much of greece had become highly malarious 62 ). there is a wealth of evidence that malaria was common in imperial rome 34 ). horace, lucretius, martial, and tacitus were among many latin authors who mentioned the disease. the pontine marshes, close to the city, were notorious as a source of infection. marcus terentius varro (116-127 b.c.) described these loca palustria (fever areas) and attributed the disease to animalia quaedam minuta quae non possunt oculi consequi (animals too small to be seen). he advised that houses should be built in high, wellventilated places so that the bestiolae that bred
What described as fuel poor ?
people are described as being fuel poor if they spend more than 10% of their income on energy
How energy cost affect the people cost of living
in april 2007 i prepared a list of approximate monthly costs for a single young professional in an inner city in garfield, a downtown community in phoenix, arizona, and compared it to the monthly and annual bills of a person living in a new community of larger tract homes in verrado, some 35 miles out of town table 11.3 ). a simple doubling of energy costs was then crudely included the table to show, as a simple ballpark figure, the difference in the cost of living with doubled energy and increased mortgage costs
Is there is relation between increase energy cost and increased mortgage costs?
a simple doubling of energy costs was then crudely included the table to show, as a simple ballpark figure, the difference in the cost of living with doubled energy and increased mortgage costs. the impacts are profound and may go some way to explaining why the arizona valley is at the top of the list of us states for households defaulting on loans. the problem with the arizona
in scotland over the 12 months between the summer of 2007 and 2008, soaring energy costs in the market pushed the number of vulnerable people in fuel poverty from 10% to 20% of householders. people are described as being fuel poor if they spend more than 10% of their income on energy. that definition scopes the breadth of fuel poverty but it does not touch on its depth. what about people who spend 20, 30 or 40% of their income on energy? we cite the classic dilemma in the uk of ' heat or eat ' in many parts of the usa, not least the areas of highest population growth and mortgage defaults such as nevada and arizona, this will translate into ' cool or eat ' the cost of living the american dream is very high, with soaring insurance and medical costs on top of mortgage, transport and air conditioning costs. in april 2007 i prepared a list of approximate monthly costs for a single young professional in an inner city in garfield, a downtown community in phoenix, arizona, and compared it to the monthly and annual bills of a person living in a new community of larger tract homes in verrado, some 35 miles out of town table 11.3 ). a simple doubling of energy costs was then crudely included the table to show, as a simple ballpark figure, the difference in the cost of living with doubled energy and increased mortgage costs. the impacts are profound and may go some way to explaining why the arizona valley is at the top of the list of us states for households defaulting on loans. the problem with the arizona more free ebooks http://fast-file.blogspot.com
This increase in human ignitions could facilitate what effect?
burning the fuel built up by the megafauna extinction
The increased fire activity is believed to be a consequence of what?
fuel changes
what is the main driver of fuel changes?
faunal extinction
j. g. pausas and j. e. keeley structure was an increase in ignition frequency due to the impact of humans on lower elevations and foothill environments that were originally ignitionlimited due to low lightning activity (pinter and others 2011 ). this increase in human ignitions could facilitate burning the fuel built up by the megafauna extinction, thus generating a sudden shift in the dominant disturbance regime, from low-intensity surface fires to high intensity crown fires. such rapid changes have been detected through an increase in soil-borne charcoal (grassfires do not leave as much charcoal as woody fuels) and a decrease in the density of spores of sporormiella a fungus that resides in the dung of large herbivores. the increased fire activity is believed to be a consequence of fuel changes driven mainly by the faunal extinction, independent of the driver of the extinction (climate, humans or both; barnosky and others 2004 ). in many palynological sites in north america there is a temporal sequence in which sporormiella declined rapidly at the same time that pollen of early successional species (for example, picea increased, followed after several centuries by a charcoal spike (robinson and others 2005 gill and others 2009 ). the timing of events at each site suggests a regionally consistent sequence driven by the abrupt faunal extinctions. this process in which the reduction of megaherbivores changed fuel properties and generated abrupt fire regime changes is likely to have happened in many parts of the world and at different times, despite the fact that the relative role of humans and climate in the megafauna extinction might vary cross continents (for example, barnosky and others 2004 burney and flannery 2005 ).
What are the barriers to adaptation?
while recognising that barriers to adaptation are almost always context-specific and dependent on normative judgments6, attempts have been made to develop categorisations that distinguish several types of barriers19, with some of these barriers being relatively obvious (e.g. financial, technical), while others are more hidden and often forgotten (e.g. social cultural, political-economic
What are sociocultural barriers?
adger et al.8 highlight how social cultural barriers, typically endogenous to society, are easily missed as they are socially constructed and highly subjective, contingent on individual and community knowledge, personal and societal values4, perceptions of risk and loss, and power structures
What is a community group example?
for example, strong vested interests can form a barrier to more sustainable forms of adaptation through the exclusion of some individuals and social groups.5,30
while recognising that barriers to adaptation are almost always context-specific and dependent on normative judgments6, attempts have been made to develop categorisations that distinguish several types of barriers19, with some of these barriers being relatively obvious (e.g. financial, technical), while others are more hidden and often forgotten (e.g. social cultural, political-economic). adger et al.8 highlight how social cultural barriers, typically endogenous to society, are easily missed as they are socially constructed and highly subjective, contingent on individual and community knowledge, personal and societal values4, perceptions of risk and loss, and power structures.16 the focus on technical adaptation strategies frequently fails to take into consideration such important social contexts.28 furthermore, if sustainable adaptation (which according to eriksen and colleagues is adaptation that contributes to socially and environmentally sustainable development pathways)5 is to be achieved, then more attention needs to be paid to institutional, political, discursive, structural and contingent barriers that may prevent equitable and socially just adaptation and exacerbate vulnerability for some people. for example, strong vested interests can form a barrier to more sustainable forms of adaptation through the exclusion of some individuals and social groups.5,30
What post does Dr. Ching-Yen Tsay hold now?
he is a professor at the national central university and the national chiao tung university
What are a few positions held by  Dr. Ching-Yen Tsay in government and education?
vice chairman of the national science council, director-general of the civil aeronautics administration, and director of the department of atmospheric sciences, national taiwan university
dr. ching-yen tsay was until 2004 a minister of state for the executive yuan of the taiwanese government. he is a professor at the national central university and the national chiao tung university. he is a former director-general of the central weather bureau and was responsible for establishing the collaboration of the iri and that institution. tsay has held numerous positions in government and education, among them vice chairman of the national science council, director-general of the civil aeronautics administration, and director of the department of atmospheric sciences, national taiwan university. tsay has a bs in meteorology from national taiwan university and a ph.d. in meteorology from the university of utah.
What is the analysis of networks in the climate system?
note that this assumption is made implicitly, when the fundamental partial differential equations of fluid mechanics are discretized and integrated in large scale climate simulations by the coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (aogcms) used in climate science. due to the continuity of the underlying physical fields, such as temperature or pressure, neighboring grid points are dynamically correlated; these trivial local correlations usually decay quickly
during the last decade, the development and application of complex network theory generated a wealth of novel insights into the nature of complex systems in various areas of science, e.g. the internet and world wide web in computer science, food webs, gene expression and neural networks in biology and citation networks in social science [1-3]. the intricate interplay between the structure and dynamics of real world networks has received considerable attention particularly, synchronization arising by the transfer of dynamical information in complex network topologies has been studied intensively the application of complex network theory to climate science is a very young field, where only few studies have been reported recently [6-13]. the vertices of a climate network are identified with the spatial grid points of an underlying global climate data set. edges are added between pairs of vertices depending on the degree of statistical interdependence between the corresponding pairs of anomaly time series taken from the climate data set. when studying networks in the climate system, one has to assume that its dynamics can be approximated reasonably well by a grid of low dimensional nonlinear dynamical systems interacting only with their spatial neighbors according to the locality principle of classical physics. note that this assumption is made implicitly, when the fundamental partial differential equations of fluid mechanics are discretized and integrated in large scale climate simulations by the coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (aogcms) used in climate science. due to the continuity of the underlying physical fields, such as temperature or pressure, neighboring grid points are dynamically correlated; these trivial local correlations usually decay quickly
Why there is a need to retrieve a subjective norm value?
because of the lack of data on peer impact and the crucial role of the number of peer opinions an agent needs to retrieve a subjective norm value that crosses the threshold from a negative to a positive impact, the values used in the abm are simplified so that any more than 1 peer favouring an option produces the maximum peer opinion value
How to communicate with varying peers for migration decision?
in a real-world social network different individuals may communicate with varying numbers of peers with varying powers of influence over their migration decision
How long they are connected for their interaction?
in order to recreate some of this level of social interaction, agents within the model are each connected with up to 50 peers with whom they interact through a small world network
because of the lack of data on peer impact and the crucial role of the number of peer opinions an agent needs to retrieve a subjective norm value that crosses the threshold from a negative to a positive impact, the values used in the abm are simplified so that any more than 1 peer favouring an option produces the maximum peer opinion value. in a real-world social network different individuals may communicate with varying numbers of peers with varying powers of influence over their migration decision. in order to recreate some of this level of social interaction, agents within the model are each connected with up to 50 peers with whom they interact through a small world network.
what are the key policy domains that have an impact on community-level adaptive capacity?
some key policy domains that have an impact on community-level adaptive capacity, including: sustaining biological and cultural diversity; maintaining territorial integrity and mobility; and enhancing the transmission of indigenous knowledge and practices
what should be done when drought is severe?
when drought is severe or ice crusts lock winter pastures under ice, herds must be moved rapidly to new locations or risk perishing
little work has been done to identify the different policy environments that might galvanize or alternatively undermine endogenous capacities for climate change adaptation (adger et al., 2011). a review of the literature nevertheless identifies some key policy domains that have an impact on community-level adaptive capacity, including: sustaining biological and cultural diversity; maintaining territorial integrity and mobility; and enhancing the transmission of indigenous knowledge and practices. crop and herd diversity, landscape diversity, linguistic diversity and diversity of livelihoods are all components of cultural and biological diversity. these elements are socially and culturally-created and maintained, and contribute significantly to community resilience in the face of environmental variation and change.2 in many cases, however, external pressures including development impacts, external agricultural policies, forced migration and market economics, are leading to loss of traditional knowledge, fragmentation of communities and, consequently, loss of valuable adaptive capacity. access to alternative lands and resources is a strategy relied upon by numerous societies when facing difficult environmental conditions. when drought is severe or ice crusts lock winter pastures under ice, herds must be moved rapidly to new locations or risk perishing (reinert, mathiesen and reinert, 2010; roue, in prep.). in disastrous years when crops fail due to drought, floods or pests, small-scale farmers in many parts of the world fall back upon wild forest foods in order to scrape through these difficult times. when the hunt fails, hunters must be knowledgeable and resourceful in shifting to other locations and other game to bring food back to the home.
How have previous attempts gone about validating diatom-inferred TP(DI-TP) values?
there have been several attempts to validate diatom-inferred tp (di-tp) values by comparing them against measured tp data through time. in most cases to date the comparisons have been reasonably good (e.g.bennion et al. 1995; hall et al ., 1999; bradshaw anderson, 2001
What do the case studies presented here offer?
the case studies presented here offer further opportunities to test the 12 12 method
What does Figure 2 show?
fig. 2 shows comparisons between measured tp data and di-tp for lake mjosa, loch leven, esthwaite water and piburger see. whereas the data for loch leven and piburger see are in substantial agreement, the di-tp data for mjosa systematically over-estimate the measured tp data by approximately 5 ug l-1 and for esthwaite water the match is good for the 1960s but thereafter there is a progressive disparity with di-tp showing steadily increasing values whereas the measured data are relatively unchanging
there have been several attempts to validate diatom-inferred tp (di-tp) values by comparing them against measured tp data through time. in most cases to date the comparisons have been reasonably good (e.g.bennion et al. 1995; hall et al ., 1999; bradshaw anderson, 2001). the case studies presented here offer further opportunities to test the 12 12 method. fig. 2 shows comparisons between measured tp data and di-tp for lake mjosa, loch leven, esthwaite water and piburger see. whereas the data for loch leven and piburger see are in substantial agreement, the di-tp data for mjosa systematically over-estimate the measured tp data by approximately 5 ug l-1 and for esthwaite water the match is good for the 1960s but thereafter there is a progressive disparity with di-tp showing steadily increasing values whereas the measured data are relatively unchanging.
What is monsoon?
spatial variation. seasonal rainfall totals appeared to show similar year-to-year patterns at all recording stations in both seasons (fig. 8). for the hot season, whole-season rainfall at most stations correlated strongly and significantly with most others
Define hottest season?
for the hot season, whole-season rainfall at most stations correlated strongly and significantly with most others. correlation coefficients 0.77 p 0.05) existed for 29 out of 35 possible station pairs (83 %), with most (19) of these very strong r 0.97, p 0.001
What is the Santa Rosa Dataset?
the exceptions were: miconia not correlated with baltra, and santa rosa not correlated with any other site except radio sonda, perhaps due to the shorter time-span of the santa rosa dataset (n 6; all others n 9). for the cool season
spatial variation. seasonal rainfall totals appeared to show similar year-to-year patterns at all recording stations in both seasons (fig. 8). for the hot season, whole-season rainfall at most stations correlated strongly and significantly with most others. correlation coefficients 0.77 p 0.05) existed for 29 out of 35 possible station pairs (83 %), with most (19) of these very strong r 0.97, p 0.001). the exceptions were: miconia not correlated with baltra, and santa rosa not correlated with any other site except radio sonda, perhaps due to the shorter time-span of the santa rosa dataset (n 6; all others n 9). for the cool season,
How do individualistic and hierarchical individuals tend to be compared to egalitarian communitarians?
more supportive of climate policies that maintained the autonomy of the free market (e.g. enhanced nuclear power capacity or geoengineering
What did McCright and Dunlap demonstrate significant differences between?
us citizens who self-identified as republicans and democrats with respect to basic beliefs about climate change (i.e. whether it is happening), risk perceptions and willingness to take ameliorative action or support mitigation policy
What did egalitarian-communitarians perceive?
a more urgent need for ameliorative action and were more supportive of climate policies that restrained market freedom
egalitarian-communitarians also perceived a more urgent need for ameliorative action and were more supportive of climate policies that restrained market freedom (e.g. regulation of industry). in contrast, individualistic and hierarchical individuals tended to be more supportive of climate policies that maintained the autonomy of the free market (e.g. enhanced nuclear power capacity or geoengineering55). similarly, mccright and dunlap63demonstrated significant differences between us citizens who self-identified as republicans and democrats with respect to basic beliefs about climate change (i.e. whether it is happening), risk perceptions and willingness to take ameliorative action or support mitigation policy. there is an important question, therefore, regarding the conceptual overlap (and by extension unique contribution) of cultural worldview measures vis-`a-vis partisan ideology (and indeed value orientations64,65). however, resolving this issue is beyond the scope of this review (box 1).
In which areas progress is needed?
progress is needed regarding detection of truncations in a species' response to an abiotic variable, caused by biotic interactions rather than by the lack of available conditions in the study region
How the presence or absence of an interacting species (and its abundance) indeed could affect the focal species?
more generally, the presence or absence of an interacting species (and its abundance) indeed could affect the focal species in either a positive or negative manner, as well as distort its response curve substantially without producing a full truncation
What is in effect built into the model?
when not considered explicitly in model calibration, the (latent) effects of a biotic interaction upon the focal species' response to abiotic variables are in effect built into the model
such advances could make niche models much more realistic, but various associated topics require development. progress is needed regarding detection of truncations in a species' response to an abiotic variable, caused by biotic interactions rather than by the lack of available conditions in the study region (see discussion on the niche space assumption).86more generally, the presence or absence of an interacting species (and its abundance) indeed could affect the focal species in either a positive or negative manner, as well as distort its response curve substantially without producing a full truncation.87in either case, when not considered explicitly in model calibration, the (latent) effects of a biotic interaction upon the focal species' response to abiotic variables are in effect built into the model. furthermore, transferring such a model across space or time requires assuming that both the nature of the biotic interaction and the presence of
what we need to know?
we need to know more about gender differences in the impacts of climate change
what are the two terms?
regional, national and international levels - both in terms of the numbers of women participating
Do gender differences affect children's?
do gender differences affect children's perceptions of the hazards facing their communities
in order to design gender-sensitive mitigation strategies, we need to know more about gender differences in the impacts of climate change. this should entail gathering existing knowledge on climate change, including local practices and indigenous knowledge. sex disaggregated data and in-depth qualitative studies into impacts - based on gender-sensitive participatory approaches to data collection, are essential to furthering the mitigation agenda and ensuring it is both efficient and equitable. critical research questions include: to what extent have programmes aimed at mitigating environmental impacts or at improving resource management included women? what are the current levels of female participation in decision-making on climate change at local, regional, national and international levels - both in terms of the numbers of women participating as well as the quality of that participation? what are the barriers to participation, or to being heard and taken seriously? what can be learnt from existing literature on promoting women's and youth's participation in decision-making? equally important is for current and future research and interventions designed to promote children's participation in disaster risk reduction to be gender-sensitive. particular attention should be given to promoting girls' participation, since girls may be doubly excluded from decisionmaking processes and for a. as such, child-centred climate change interventions could be strengthened by a greater awareness of the gendered constraints that mitigate against girls' capacity to act as 'resources' or 'receivers' of disaster management information - such as limitations on girls' mobility, lower levels of education and a higher risk of violence. in many contexts, boys rather than girls are expected to be knowledgeable and make the decisions: what are the implications of this in terms of girls' ability to affect drr policies and processes? do participatory research programmes and child-centred interventions have the potential to challenge assumptions about gendered roles and capacities? do gender differences affect children's perceptions of the hazards facing their communities, and if so what are the implications of this?
What are two advance planning aspects of health-related responses to floods?
health education, warning and evacuation
Why do health-related response needs a degree of flexibility?
to cope with variability in the nature of flood events but also to ensure that actions identified are appropriate to the needs of the population or system being served
What two parties are held responsible to keep plans effective?
local public agencies and communities
advance planning emerges strongly as a key message for the successful implementation of health education, warning and evacuation, emergency health care provision, infrastructure protection and other aspects of health-related response to floods. preparedness plans, for example, are seen as crucial for health systems in floodprone locations, covering how the system continues to function during flood events as well as how the system responds to additional needs created by the flood. at the same time, a planned approach to health-related response needs a degree of flexibility, not just to cope with variability in the nature of flood events but also to ensure that actions identified are appropriate to the needs of the population or system being served. it is difficult simply to lift generic responses 'off the peg', especially from north to south, or vice-versa. there also needs to be a flexibility in institutions to learn from positive experiences and external examples of good practice. efficient response by agencies also rests on effective coordination between sectors and, during flood emergencies where external assistance is forthcoming, between the different organisations providing medical and other care for affected populations. it also rests on effective linkage between scales of responsibility, including the relations of trust and accountability between local public agencies and communities subject to flooding.
What are glaciers an integral component of?
glaciers are an integral component of the coupled natural-human systems of the tropical central andes and their rapid recession is transforming downstream hydrology
What is ongoing glacier melt accompanied by?
ongoing glacier melt in the cordillera blanca tributaries is accompanied by increasing discharge and relatively more glacier melt water contribution in streamflows from highly glacierized watersheds
What are the larger research goals?
our larger research goals are intended to address household resilience and adaptive capacity as well as larger governance questions affecting the management of water resources throughout the santa river watershed
glaciers are an integral component of the coupled natural-human systems of the tropical central andes and their rapid recession is transforming downstream hydrology. our integrated research has innovatively quantified these changes and initiated new understanding of groundwater processes. our isotope analyses show that the relative amount of glacier melt water is increasing in glacierized tributaries of the santa river, reflecting an increased rate of glacier recession in all the case study watersheds. historically, a significant increase in discharge was observed until 1983, after which time the trend is weakly negative. this inflection point in the discharge trend is suggestive of a systemic threshold in glacier response to climate forcing, whereby glacierized watersheds initially provide more discharge but then diminish in influence over time. in addition, temperature is closely correlated to discharge, reflecting a regional climate control. it is important to note that 1983 was a major el ni~no year, and the role of el ni~no southern oscillation has been identified as controlling discharge and glacier mass balance on multiyear intervals (francou et al. 1995; vuille, kaser, and juen 2008). nevertheless, the overall decrease in discharge at la balsa is not altered by these episodic influences. our results demonstrate that groundwater is proportionately at least as important as glacier melt with respect to total current dry season streamflows, and as glaciers recede, the influence of groundwater, and its role as a seasonal buffer, will become increasingly important. livelihood vulnerability in our case study watersheds is also being significantly affected by recent glacier recession. our results clearly show that households are acutely aware of these changes and that new vectors of vulnerability, including shifting water availability, increasing weather extremes, and threats to tourism, are affecting household access to resources. respondents across both watersheds uniformly indicated that these factors are significantly affecting their current livelihood activities. because our methodology was designed to limit biases through the use of a random sampling frame, and our total household sample constitutes a statistically significant representative population for both watersheds, our findings are highly suggestive that livelihood vulnerability has already increased significantly and that there is a compelling need to address these concerns. our transdisciplinary findings suggest that there is an intriguing scale-dependent discontinuity between household perceptions, on one hand, and what our physical measurements and models demonstrate on the other. ongoing glacier melt in the cordillera blanca tributaries is accompanied by increasing discharge and relatively more glacier melt water contribution in streamflows from highly glacierized watersheds. however, households from communities situated in both of our glacierized case study watersheds indicate very strongly that water supplies are declining, a trend that is only clearly measured in the santa river discharge from the entire callej'on de huaylas. although we are considering a number of possible alternative explanations, given the minimal hydrologic influence of glaciers on the entire santa river basin (i.e., 10 percent glacier cover), we hypothesize that increasing basin-wide water withdrawals from human activities might be an important explanatory factor. with this report we present an initial synthesis of results from two of three case study watersheds and establish the context for our ongoing research project. exploring the way in which these observed patterns and hydrologic processes are currently interacting provides an important rationale for continued observations, model development, and testing and more intensive social research so that we might better integrate our transdisciplinary research with the project's social and scientific components and provide useful analyses to broader scientific and policy audiences. finally, although this research focuses rather exclusively on human vulnerability, our larger research goals are intended to address household resilience and adaptive capacity as well as larger governance questions affecting the management of water resources throughout the santa river watershed.
What is compared before performing an analysis of the coupled ocean- atmosphere modes of variability in the North Pacific?
before performing an analysis of the coupled ocean- atmosphere modes of variability in the north pacific, we compare the leading patterns of atmospheric variability in the slpa fields for each model to observations
What is found when comparing spatial correlations of the leading two North Pacific SLP EOFs in the models versus the observations?
we find that the spatial correlations of the leading two north pacific slp eofs in the models versus the observations are high and significant (fig. 2) and typically higher than the north pacific sst eofs
The power spectra of the leading two SLP EOFs in the models compare well with the observations with a broad range of low power for what frequencies?
the power spectra of the leading two slp eofs in the models compare well with the observations with a broad range of low power for low and high frequencies
before performing an analysis of the coupled ocean- atmosphere modes of variability in the north pacific, we compare the leading patterns of atmospheric variability in the slpa fields for each model to observations. we find that the spatial correlations of the leading two north pacific slp eofs in the models versus the observations are high and significant (fig. 2) and typically higher than the north pacific sst eofs. the power spectra of the leading two slp eofs in the models compare well with the observations with a broad range of low power for low and high frequencies. there is no statistically significant difference between the ensemble mean and observed power spectrum for either the ec-1slp or ec-2slp index (not shown).
Do policy responses rely on individuals?
some policy responses indeed count on the active, behavioral involvement of individuals for their success
What is the UK 2020 emmissions target?
the ambitious uk emissions target of 34% reduction below 1990 emissions
Are individual responses affected by understanding of policies?
these scholars argue that how individuals understand climate change is important in shaping their responses, including their understanding of and support for policies that aim to address the problem and their willingness to change behavior
evidence for the importance of individuals' understandings and perceptions is demonstrated by the significant volume of literature that examines people's views on and knowledge of the climate problem.3-8these scholars argue that how individuals understand climate change is important in shaping their responses, including their understanding of and support for policies that aim to address the problem and their willingness to change behavior.9some policy responses indeed count on the active, behavioral involvement of individuals for their success. for example, to meet the ambitious uk emissions target of 34% reduction below 1990 emissions by 2020, which lists 'homes and communities' as one area where efficiencies are thought to help meet the goals, engagement of individuals is absolutely essential.10
Did the soil at West Dock account for large amounts of heave?
the soil at west dock had only slight heave
What is happening to the barren frost boils typical of coastal areas?
the barren frost boils typical of coastal areas are apparently pumping salt to the surface because of relatively high evaporation
What is the probable result of a thicker thaw layer?
the thicker thaw layer of the frost boils probably allows more ice lensing to develop, resulting in more heave
frost heave varied from less than 1 cm at the west dock site to 20 cm on frost boils at deadhorse (figure 5). heave on the frost boils with silt-loam to loamy soils was 9-20 cm versus only 4 cm in the sandy loam soil at howe island. heave in the interboil areas varied from 3 cm at howe island to 5 cm at the sagwon mnt site. the soil at west dock had only slight heave. differential heave (the difference between the heave on the frost boil and inter-boil areas) was greatest at deadhorse and franklin bluffs (17 cm). the least differential heave occurred at west dock (0 cm) and howe island (1 cm), sites with relatively sandy soils. the low amount of heave in the frost boils on howe island occurred on the site with the most clearly expressed frost boils (figure 1). why such a small amount of heave has such a large effect on the vegetation is not clear. one possible explanation is that the barren frost boils in colder environments have higher salt concentrations (michaelson, unpublished data). the barren frost boils typical of coastal areas are apparently pumping salt to the surface because of relatively high evaporation. salt has been shown to be particularly toxic to dryas the dominant plant in subzone c zonal sites (simmons et al. 1981), and may have similar effects on other typical tundra species. the two species of vascular plants found growing in the barren frost boils at howe island, puccinellia angustata and braya purpurascens are both salt-tolerant species commonly found in dry disturbed saline coastal habitats at prudhoe bay. there was no relationship between air temperature and soil heave. the large difference in heave between the frost boils and the inter-boil areas appears to result from a combination of factors, the thicker thaw layer of the frost boils probably allows more ice lensing to develop, resulting in more heave. however, the
What must be done to enhance the adaptive capacity of the fisheries sector?
increase stakeholder participation in decision making, improve the quality of information available to the public, create easily accessible data sets, and increase the lines of communication between industry, government, scientific researchers, coastal communities and the general public
What has the Internet been suggested as?
as an appropriate tool for the dissemination of information
What can research collaborations address?
regional issues (seebox 6), or national or international concerns
to enhance the adaptive capacity of the fisheries sector, there is a need to increase stakeholder participation in decision making, improve the quality of information available to the public, create easily accessible data sets, and increase the lines of communication between industry, government, scientific researchers, coastal communities and the general public.(2)the internet has been suggested as an appropriate tool for the dissemination of information,(60)although more conventional methods, such as workshops and town meetings, may also be appropriate. improved communication will also help facilitate effective research collaborations between scientists, government, traditional resource users and the general public.(60)research collaborations can address regional issues (seebox 6), or national or international concerns. (100)for these collaborations to be successful, and for research to influence future directions and decisions, stakeholders must be included throughout the research process. a challenge to both researchers and policy-makers is ensuring that science results are effectively incorporated into the policy-making process (e.g., reference 101). modelling of marine ecosystems is still a relatively new area of research, and future studies could contribute significantly to the development of appropriate adaptation strategies. recommendations for improving modelling studies include research to better define the linkages between species
sea â€‹â€‹temperature is affected by what?
sea surface temperature (sst) is directly affected by coupling to the atmosphere, sea ice, and river runoff from land
what does the SST bias patterns form?
sst bias patterns form a primary metric used to judge the integrity of a climate simulation, with biases impacted by the suite of ocean surface buoyancy and momentum fluxes, as well as the realism of surface ocean flow
what changes are evidenced by the root-mean-square biases?
however, there are some notable changes, as evidenced by the root-mean-square biases as categorized by latitude bands. in general, cm3 has a somewhat smaller rms error in the high latitudes, whereas cm2.1 has a smaller rms error in the tropics. in the remainder of this subsection, we discuss possible physical mechanisms impacting these biases and connect regional bias patterns to these physical mechanisms
sea surface temperature (sst) is directly affected by coupling to the atmosphere, sea ice, and river runoff from land. sst bias patterns form a primary metric used to judge the integrity of a climate simulation, with biases impacted by the suite of ocean surface buoyancy and momentum fluxes, as well as the realism of surface ocean flow. figure 2 shows maps of the sst biases for cm2.1 and cm3 relative to the climatology of reynolds et al. (2002). the global mean bias is roughly the same for both models, and some large-scale features are common. however, there are some notable changes, as evidenced by the root-mean-square biases as categorized by latitude bands. in general, cm3 has a somewhat smaller rms error in the high latitudes, whereas cm2.1 has a smaller rms error in the tropics. in the remainder of this subsection, we discuss possible physical mechanisms impacting these biases and connect regional bias patterns to these physical mechanisms.
What do  the amplification of the NPGO variance found in observations and in global warming simulations imply?
the amplification of the npgo variance found in observations and in global warming simulations implies that the npgo may play an increasingly important role in forcing global-scale decadal changes in marine ecosystems
What does the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) correlate with?
we define a new pattern of climate change, the north pacific gyre oscillation (npgo) and show that its variability is significantly correlated with previously unexplained fluctuations of salinity, nutrients and chlorophyll
What changes are driven by the nutrient fluctuations correlated with the NPGO?
nutrient fluctuations drive concomitant changes in phytoplankton concentrations, and may force similar variability in higher trophic levels
decadal fluctuations in salinity, nutrients, chlorophyll, a variety of zooplankton taxa, and fish stocks in the northeast pacific are often poorly correlated with the most widely-used index of large-scale climate variability in the region the pacific decadal oscillation (pdo). we define a new pattern of climate change, the north pacific gyre oscillation (npgo) and show that its variability is significantly correlated with previously unexplained fluctuations of salinity, nutrients and chlorophyll. fluctuations in the npgo are driven by regional and basin-scale variations in wind-driven upwelling and horizontal advection - the fundamental processes controlling salinity and nutrient concentrations. nutrient fluctuations drive concomitant changes in phytoplankton concentrations, and may force similar variability in higher trophic levels. the npgo thus provides a strong indicator of fluctuations in the mechanisms driving planktonic ecosystem dynamics. the npgo pattern extends beyond the north pacific and is part of a global-scale mode of climate variability that is evident in global sea level trends and sea surface temperature. therefore the amplification of the npgo variance found in observations and in global warming simulations implies that the npgo may play an increasingly important role in forcing global-scale decadal changes in marine ecosystems. citation: di lorenzo, e., et al. (2008), north pacific gyre oscillation links ocean climate and ecosystem change, geophys. res. lett. 35 l08607, doi:10.1029/2007gl032838.
Although farmers cannot switch crops in response to what?
weather shocks
Censuses and for each crop it is limited to what?
o the counties with production of the crop in each of these years
These three crops account for roughly ?
46 billion of revenues (in 2002 dollars, when their output is evaluated at the average crop price over these years
c. estimates of the response of crop yields to climate change in this subsection, we explore the effect of climate change on crop yields. this exercise in this subsection, we explore the effect of climate change on crop yields. this exercise complements the results from the previous one by assessing the effect of predicted climate change on crop yields. large declines in yields would suggest that the profit results may be biased (relative to the preferred long run measure) by short run price increases. although farmers cannot switch crops in response to weather shocks, they are able to undertake some adaptations and in this respect this approach is preferable to the production function approach. table 9 presents the results of versions of equation (4) where the dependent variables are countylevel total bushels of production per acre planted (production acre planted) for corn for grain, soybeans, and wheat for grain. the independent variables of interest are growing season degree days and precipitation, both of which are modeled with a quadratic and allowed to vary among dryland and irrigated counties. the regressions all include controls for soil characteristics and county fixed effects and are weighted by the square root of the number of acres planted. the "a" specifications include year fixed effects and the "b" ones have state by year fixed effects. the sample is drawn from 1987, 1992, and 1997, and 2002 censuses and for each crop it is limited to the counties with production of the crop in each of these years. these three crops account for roughly $46 billion of revenues (in 2002 dollars, when their output is evaluated at the average crop price over these years), which is about 27% of total agricultural revenues. the second panel reports the predicted change in national output in billion of bushels and its standard error under the hadley 2 long run scenario. due to the nonlinear modeling of the weather variables, each county's predicted change in bushels per acre is calculated as the discrete difference in per acre output at the county's predicted degree days and precipitation after climate change and its current climate (i.e., the average over the 1970-2000 period). the resulting change in bushels per acre is 28 28 multiplied by the number of acres of farmland in the county and then the national effect is obtained by summing across all counties in the sample. the next row presents this change as a percentage of the average yield in our balanced sample of counties. the other rows report the change in bushels in dryland and irrigated counties and the separate impacts of the predicted changes in temperature and precipitation. the results are consistent across the crops. specifically, the more robust model with state by year fixed effects fails to find a statistically significant relationship between climate change and crop yields for any of the three crops. the less robust "a" specification finds negative effects for corn and soybeans, but they are small in magnitude.41 in general, the increase in temperature is harmful for yields and the increase in precipitation is beneficial. this finding underscores that it is important to account for both the change in temperature and precipitation when assessing the impacts of climate change. in summary, the small changes in output or quantities suggest that it is unlikely that the previous subsection's finding that climate change will have a small effect on agricultural profits is due to short-run price increases.
Where is the climate most rapidly changing in the Southern Hemisphere?
western antarctic peninsula (wap
What is Antarctic krill?
a key species in the southern ocean foodweb with a known dependence on the physical environment
the climate of the western antarctic peninsula (wap) is the most rapidly changing in the southern hemisphere, with a rise in atmospheric temperature of nearly 3  c since 1951 and associated cryospheric impacts. we demonstrate here, for the first time, that the adjacent ocean showed profound coincident changes, with surface summer temperatures rising more than 1  c and a strong upper-layer salinification. initially driven by atmospheric warming and reduced rates of sea ice production, these changes constitute positive feedbacks that will contribute significantly to the continued climate change. marine species in this region have extreme sensitivities to their environment, with population and species removal predicted in response to very small increases in ocean temperature. the wap region is an important breeding and nursery ground for antarctic krill, a key species in the southern ocean foodweb with a known dependence on the physical environment. the changes observed thus have significant ecological implications. citation: meredith, m. p., and j. c. king (2005), rapid climate change in the ocean west of the antarctic peninsula during the second half of the 20th century, geophys. res. lett. 32 l19604, doi:10.1029/2005gl024042.
What is necessary for the synthesis of proteins?
sulfur is necessary for the synthesis of proteins
What is one reason why we can disregard the need for sulfides in anaerobic digestion?
other reasons to disregard the need for sulfides in anaerobic digestion include: (i) presence of h2s in the biogas; (ii) microbial synthesis of sulfide and (iii) precipitation of sulfides by metals
What other amino acid can be used as a source of sulfur other than sulfide?
c) sulfur most of the methanogenic microorganisms use sulfide as a source of sulfur, although some of them can use cysteine
biomass with high yield coefficient (y ~ 0.15 gvss/gcod) e.g. degradation of carbohydrates cod:n:p 350:5:1 c:n:p 130:5:1 (b) phosphorus microbial incorporation of phosphorus in anaerobic digestion has been reported as being approximately 1/5 to 1/7 of that established for nitrogen. most of the microorganisms are capable of using inorganic orthophosphate, which can be incorporated by the growing cells by means of the mediation of enzymes named phosphatases. (c) sulfur most of the methanogenic microorganisms use sulfide as a source of sulfur, although some of them can use cysteine. if inorganic sulfate is present, it is reduced to sulfide, which then reacts with the serine amino acid to form sulfur containing the cysteine amino acid. sulfur is necessary for the synthesis of proteins. 684 anaerobic reactors in general, the concentration of sulfate in domestic sewage is sufficient to provide the sulfur necessary for the bacterial growth, which is required in relatively small amounts. this is due to the low sulfur content in the microbial cells. other reasons to disregard the need for sulfides in anaerobic digestion include: (i) presence of h2s in the biogas; (ii) microbial synthesis of sulfide and (iii) precipitation of sulfides by metals. sulfur and phosphorus seem to be required in the same amount. it should be emphasised that sulfur requirements for methanogenic microorganisms are part of a complex process. on one hand, the presence of sulfates can limit the methanogenesis, because the sulfate-reducing bacteria compete for substrates such as hydrogen and acetate. on the other hand, the methanogenic organisms depend on the production of sulfides for their growth. this illustrates the relatively narrow ecological environment occupied by the methanogenic organisms, where some inorganic compounds pass from ideal to toxic concentrations within a small range. example 24.2 calculate the nitrogen and phosphorus requirements of an anaerobic treatment system with the following characteristics:
Describe the research on climate change?
considerable research on climate change and agriculture exists at the farm and food system levels, including topics such as farming practices for mitigation of agricultural ghg emissions, choice and adaptation of crops and livestock to new climate regimes, decision-making by farmers and life-cycle assessments [51-55
What are the tendency to be applied?
the tendency has been to apply disciplinary science that informs particular problems and solutions for agriculture, as demonstrated by the topics of the six sessions in theme 1. sustainable intensification, focused initially on increased agricultural production and food security, has now moved to a broader set of goals with multiple social, ethical and environmental dimensions [56,57
Why we have to understand better for CSA challenge?
the integrative challenge for csa is to better understand the trade-offs and choices farmers must make for greater multifunctionality and resilience to climate change. because planning for climate change can be highly farm-, commodityand context-specific, especially in response to extreme events, csa is committed to new ways of engaging in participatory research and partnerships with producers
considerable research on climate change and agriculture exists at the farm and food system levels, including topics such as farming practices for mitigation of agricultural ghg emissions, choice and adaptation of crops and livestock to new climate regimes, decision-making by farmers and life-cycle assessments [51-55]. the tendency has been to apply disciplinary science that informs particular problems and solutions for agriculture, as demonstrated by the topics of the six sessions in theme 1. sustainable intensification, focused initially on increased agricultural production and food security, has now moved to a broader set of goals with multiple social, ethical and environmental dimensions [56,57]. the integrative challenge for csa is to better understand the trade-offs and choices farmers must make for greater multifunctionality and resilience to climate change. because planning for climate change can be highly farm-, commodityand context-specific, especially in response to extreme events, csa is committed to new ways of engaging in participatory research and partnerships with producers
What are the models that were calibrated on a random sample of the initial data of each species?
a generalized linear model (glm), a generalized additive model (gam), a classification tree analysis (cta) and an artificial neural network (ann
How the the accuracy of each model was assessed and compared for every species?
area under the receiver operating characteristic (roc) curve (auc index
How the  percentage of new climatically suitable habitat is defined?
the percentage of new climatically suitable habitat, defined as habitat unsuitable at present but predicted to become suitable, was calculated as the ratio between the number of new climatically suitable grid cells and the present day habitat size
(thuiller, 2003). for each species, a generalized linear model (glm), a generalized additive model (gam), a classification tree analysis (cta) and an artificial neural network (ann) were calibrated on a random sample of the initial data (70%). then for every species, the accuracy of each model was assessed and compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (roc) curve (auc index) on the remaining 30% of the initial data (pearce ferrier, 2000). the best model for each species according to the roc curve criterion was utilised to project future potential climatically suitable habitats. a rough guide for classifying the accuracy of the models is: auc 0.90-1 excellent; 0.80-0.90 good; 0.70-0.80 fair; 0.60- 0.70 poor; and 0.50-0.60 fail (swets, 1988). for each species, we calculated the percentage of stable climatically suitable habitat defined as the grid cells suitable for the species both at present and under the scenario of change (fig. 1). of the currently suitable envelope, the remaining grid cells, predicted to become unsuitable, made the percentage of lost habitat. finally, the percentage of new climatically suitable habitat, defined as habitat unsuitable at present but predicted to become suitable, was calculated as the ratio between the number of new climatically suitable grid cells and the present day habitat size.
Where does the planning policy allow flood plain development?
planning policy in england allows flood plain development in certain circumstances, namely if there is nowhere more suitable
Who protects the land against development?
as such it is protected against development by powerful interest groups with legal backing
Who designs or finances flood defence schemes?
planning officers do not have to worry about the hassle of designing or financing flood defence schemes, as they do in scotland. instead, they can pass this on to the environment agency
planning policy in england allows flood plain development in certain circumstances, namely if there is nowhere more suitable. <s121>* many parts of the southeast of england are short of land for development and what land there is is often in an area of prime agricultural land, or a site of special scientific interest, a conservation area, green belt or similar. as such it is protected against development by powerful interest groups with legal backing. <s121>* planning officers do not have to worry about the hassle of designing or financing flood defence schemes, as they do in scotland. instead, they can pass this on to the environment agency. <s121>* planning officers are under pressure from property developers, who have made huge profits in recent years, and who often have undue influence over local or national political parties. perhaps it is coincidental that developers are often found to be major contributors to the funds of some political parties. <s121>* planning officers are also under pressure from local elected members who want to see more development in their councils because that brings in more income and wealth. <s121>* planning officers almost never consult with key stakeholders like the insurance industry, landowners, residents ' associations, flood survivor groups or others over flood risks as they do in scotland, so they get an entirely one-sided view of the problem.
Which city is the world's greatest victim of the Ozymandias syndrome?
it is hardly necessary to describe the problems faced by dubai. it is the world's greatest victim of the ozymandias syndrome
Which building is going to be world's first Gigawatt Building in the world?
the burg dubai alone requires around 500 mw of cooling and with other loads is getting on for being the first gigawatt building in the world
What is hindering Dubai from becoming a dream city?
dubai the desire to develop the dream city is hindered by the simple fact that however much money one has today it is impossible to generate enough energy to meet the dream, and the exponential growth of the city is unsupportable with the current or planned infrastructure
it is hardly necessary to describe the problems faced by dubai. it is the world's greatest victim of the ozymandias syndrome (see poem at the end of this chapter). just as in kuwait, where energy scarcity and cost are an insurmountable problem, so too in dubai the desire to develop the dream city is hindered by the simple fact that however much money one has today it is impossible to generate enough energy to meet the dream, and the exponential growth of the city is unsupportable with the current or planned infrastructure. the burg dubai alone requires around 500 mw of cooling and with other loads is getting on for being the first gigawatt building in the world. the energy requirements of scotland are in the region of 6 - 7 gw. people will lose very large amounts of money and it will be interesting to see what form civil unrest takes when it involves the super-rich. more free ebooks http://fast-file.blogspot.com
What about the seal population, how can it be affected?
a study of the ringed seal population around ulukhaktok documented that even a very local, small scale, premature disruption of the land fast breeding habitat has significant negative impacts on the growth, condition and survival of unweaned pups (harwood and others 2000). progressively warmer temperatures in spring will cause seal birth lairs to melt earlier, exposing pups at increasingly earlier ages to predation and freeze thaw cycles similar to those recorded by stirling and smith (2004). projected increases in precipitation in the spring are expected to result in more frequent and widespread collapses of subnivean birth lairs, the mortality of ringed seal pups will increase and local populations may be significantly reduced
How would this affect the polar bears?
as ringed seals are the primary prey of polar bears, a significant decline in ringed seal populations, especially in the production of young, is capable of having negative effects on the health of polar bears (stirling and parkinson 2006). polar bear hunting is an important activity in ulukhaktok for subsistence and as a source of income. several hunters in ulukhaktok derive a large portion of their income from guiding and helping on sport hunts for polar bear. climate and political changes, however, have implications for polar bears and the sport hunting industry in the canadian arctic. the health of the polar bear as a species under future climate change projections is in question
projected reductions in sea ice cover, more unstable sea ice conditions (for example thin ice), and trends toward later freeze-up and earlier break-up would probably continue to exacerbate risks associated with travel on the sea ice, compromise travel routes to hunting areas, and affect the health and availability of some wildlife species. some species of marine wildlife that are harvested by ulukhaktok hunters, specifically ringed seals and polar bear, are expected to be negatively affected by projected increases in precipitation and changes in sea ice (loeng 2005; laidre and others 2008). a study of the ringed seal population around ulukhaktok documented that even a very local, small scale, premature disruption of the land fast breeding habitat has significant negative impacts on the growth, condition and survival of unweaned pups (harwood and others 2000). progressively warmer temperatures in spring will cause seal birth lairs to melt earlier, exposing pups at increasingly earlier ages to predation and freeze thaw cycles similar to those recorded by stirling and smith (2004). projected increases in precipitation in the spring are expected to result in more frequent and widespread collapses of subnivean birth lairs, the mortality of ringed seal pups will increase and local populations may be significantly reduced. as ringed seals are the primary prey of polar bears, a significant decline in ringed seal populations, especially in the production of young, is capable of having negative effects on the health of polar bears (stirling and parkinson 2006). polar bear hunting is an important activity in ulukhaktok for subsistence and as a source of income. several hunters in ulukhaktok derive a large portion of their income from guiding and helping on sport hunts for polar bear. climate and political changes, however, have implications for polar bears and the sport hunting industry in the canadian arctic. the health of the polar bear as a species under future climate change projections is in question. stirling and parkinson (2006) and stirling and others (1999) documented a significant positive relationship between the time of sea ice break-up and the condition of adult female polar bears (that is the earlier the break-up, the poorer the condition of the bears). strong positive relationships between the time of sea ice break-up and freeze-up have also been documented by derocher and others (2004), who found that reduced sea ice has led to reduced reproductive rates. scientists have expanded these findings to the whole circumpolar arctic and suggest that polar bears are threatened as a species if future sea ice projections of a complete disappearance of sea ice in the arctic ocean during the summer, come true (derocher and others 2004). dyck and others (2007), however, warn that claims for the fate of polar bears are highly premature. they challenge the skilfulness of climate models to project sea ice changes and argue that alternative factors including, increased human-bear interaction, natural population dynamics, and variability of the arctic ice, ocean and atmosphere that occur naturally on decadal to multi-decadal time scales must be taken into account in a more realistic study and explanation of the population ecology of polar bears. together with climate change, political changes threaten the polar bear sport hunting industry in the canadian arctic. despite assurances from inuit and
In which decade did the scientists predictions become visible?
by the mid-1980s, the simulated predictions of the scientists on the warming climate began to demonstrate a close approximation
In which year was the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change formed?
in 1988, at the behest of national governments from around the world, the un environment programme and the world meteorological organization, by now the ' war council ' leaders, established the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc
What was the panel asked to assess and evaluate?
the panel was asked to assess the state of scientific knowledge concerning climate change, evaluate its potential environmental and socio-economic impacts, and formulate realistic strategies to deal with the problem
by the mid-1980s, the simulated predictions of the scientists on the warming climate began to demonstrate a close approximation to what was actually happening in the measured record, with clear evidence of increasing temperatures and the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. the sheer scale of the problems humanity, and the planet, might face if, indeed, the climate was changing more than its natural variability would allow, began to manifest themselves, in the dollars spent in insurance payouts on climate events, the numbers killed in climate-related events, and the movement of species and deserts across the face of the globe. in 1988, at the behest of national governments from around the world, the un environment programme and the world meteorological organization, by now the ' war council ' leaders, established the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc), 24 consisting of hundreds of leading scientists and experts on global warming. the panel was asked to assess the state of scientific knowledge concerning climate change, evaluate its potential environmental and socio-economic impacts, and formulate realistic strategies to deal with the problem. more free ebooks http://fast-file.blogspot.com
What is the title of the Time magazine cover story in April 2007
51 things we can do to save the environment
Are books and articles that offer individual advice brings effective action by the reader?
that are unlikely to lead to effective action
Are articles ranked by impacts?
are not ordered by impact
an informal survey of books and articles that offer individual advice shows that it is usually offered in forms that are unlikely to lead to effective action. most typical are long and unranked lists of recommended actions. for example, the live earth global warming survival handbook ,13 the 160-page "official companion to the live earth concerts," offers 77 "essential skills to stop climate change" in a rather complex and unranked format. similarly, a time magazine cover story in april 2007,14 reviews "51 things we can do to save the environment." the 51 things, which range from changing light bulbs to compact fluorescents (cfl) to ditching your mansion for a smaller house, are not ordered by impact. there are many other such examples.15
How often did major climate changes happen in the past?
prior to the 1980s, climate extremes, such as drought and excessive precipitation, occurred at an average frequency of about 8 to 15 years, i.e. a rhythm that enabled the smallholder farmers to deal with these problems either at the individual/household level or through well-established social networks (kandji et al 2006
What strategies do farmers use to fight extreme weather?
figure 3 shows the strategies that farmers used to employ to deal with weather and climatic problems they used to experience before they observed that climate was now changing
Where did farmers learn these strategies?
these traditional coping methods were based on experience accumulated over the years and transmitted from generation to generation
prior to the 1980s, climate extremes, such as drought and excessive precipitation, occurred at an average frequency of about 8 to 15 years, i.e. a rhythm that enabled the smallholder farmers to deal with these problems either at the individual/household level or through well-established social networks (kandji et al 2006). the farmers, therefore, have adaptation strategies that they adopted to cope with these conditions. figure 3 shows the strategies that farmers used to employ to deal with weather and climatic problems they used to experience before they observed that climate was now changing. these traditional coping methods were based on experience accumulated over the years and transmitted from generation to generation.
What are the countries that have the average cropland increased?
western europe and north america
the results of this study are based on the fao projections which describe a world of improved food supply and rapid agricultural intensification. overall production on cropland increases by 68% (dry matter); maximum increases are forecast for sub-saharan africa th 154%) and for latin america th 121%). in these regions, the fao also assumes a considerable expansion of cropland, in line with studies of cropland potentials/suitability [65,66] note, however, that such area potential studies have been criticized and that it might be difficult to cultivate the soils prevailing in these regions with currently prevailing technologies [64,81] the largest part of the growth in total production is due to growing yields, which were assumed to increase by 54% on average for all cropland. in particular, in western europe and north america, cropland yields reach very high levels. it is difficult to judge whether such yield gains can be realized. it has been argued that in some regions, most options to achieve yield gains have already been implemented and yields are therefore approaching physiological limits, that the best agricultural lands are already in use and area expansions may result in the use of less well-suited land, and that soil erosion and depletion of nutrient stocks in soils may pose challenges for future yield growth [82 e 84] however, improved management could help to sustain yield growth; e.g., due to improved stress tolerance, avoidance of nutrient and water shortages, or improvements in pest control. substantial investments will be indispensable for maintaining growth in crop yields lower rates of yield growth would result in a lower bioenergy potential, as shown in fig. 4 while higher yields would help to increase the bioenergy potential. achieving high yield gains might, however, result in substantial detrimental environmental impacts such as soil degradation, air and water pollution, biodiversity loss and others judging what amount of agricultural intensification might be justified in order to increase the bioenergy potential is a complex issue that is beyond the scope of this article. answers to this question will, among others, also depend on future development in agricultural technology our alternative diet scenario has also shown that changes in diets compared to often-expected trajectories (growth in calorie supply and more animal products) might result in considerably higher bioenergy potentials. it should be noted, however, that the "fair and frugal" diet modelled here might be considered to be near to the lower boundary of the possibility space for that parameter, while food demand might also be thought to grow more strongly than modelled here (or by the fao), as the global average 2050 in the bau scenario is well below levels of food and animal product supply enjoyed today in regions such as the us and western europe (see table 3 ).
Draw a short note about the company by Fi Nol?
the fi nal and overarching challenge is institutional. our current institutional arrangements, both private and public, seem unlikely to be able to guarantee an eff ective and equitable policy response to the health consequences of climate change
Draw a short note about the organizational challenge?
our institutions of government must reach out to listen and respond to the poorest communities in ways that have not been previously achieved. the institutional challenge is one of coordination with a vertical and a horizontal dimension. intervention should occur at diff erent levels of government, as appropriate to the scale of the issue. these diff erent levels of government must work together to support one another and to reinforce the positive benefi ts of intervention. overlapping rather than exclusive jurisdiction
Summarize the positive benefits of organizational challenge?
overlapping rather than exclusive jurisdiction between levels of government is preferred, with activities at diff erent levels constituting multiple experiments from which we can learn, and safety nets to guard against inaction or unsuitable action at any level. in the usa, for example, individual states have to take actions to tackle climate change in the absence of an eff ective policy response at the federal level.145
the fi nal and overarching challenge is institutional. our current institutional arrangements, both private and public, seem unlikely to be able to guarantee an eff ective and equitable policy response to the health consequences of climate change. our institutions of government must reach out to listen and respond to the poorest communities in ways that have not been previously achieved. the institutional challenge is one of coordination with a vertical and a horizontal dimension. intervention should occur at diff erent levels of government, as appropriate to the scale of the issue. these diff erent levels of government must work together to support one another and to reinforce the positive benefi ts of intervention. overlapping rather than exclusive jurisdiction between levels of government is preferred, with activities at diff erent levels constituting multiple experiments from which we can learn, and safety nets to guard against inaction or unsuitable action at any level. in the usa, for example, individual states have to take actions to tackle climate change in the absence of an eff ective policy response at the federal level.145
What is the leading model of North Pacific SSTa variability
the leading modes of north pacific ssta variability are a combination of both intrinsic variability in the ocean and a response to external forcing by the overlying extratropical atmosphere
which dynamical links should exist in the models
we should expect that similar covariances and ocean-atmosphere dynamical links exist in the models
the leading modes of north pacific ssta variability are a combination of both intrinsic variability in the ocean and a response to external forcing by the overlying extratropical atmosphere (e.g., pierce et al. 2001; miller et al. 2004; chhak et al. 2009). for coupled climate models to capture npdv accurately, we should expect that similar covariances and ocean-atmosphere dynamical links exist in the models. this section offers tests for the covariability between slpa and ssta in the north pacific and an ar-1 model to evaluate the degree of forcing the north pacific atmospheric circulation contributes to the forcing of the dominant modes of oceanic variability in the region.
What is the gendered dimensions of water use and management?
the gendered dimensions of water use and management are fairly well-documented. it has long been noted in the gender and environment literature, for example, that women and girls generally assume primary responsibility for collecting water for drinking, cooking, washing, hygiene and raising small livestock, while men use water for irrigation or livestock farming and for industries (fisher 2006; khosla and pearl 2003
What is the importance of water for both genders, female and male?
these distinct roles mean that women and men often have different needs and priorities in terms of water use. but while this knowledge isn't new, it does take on a pressing significance in the context of climate change. it is estimated that by 2025, almost two thirds of the world's population are likely to experience some kind of water stress, and for one billion of them the shortage will be severe and socially disruptive (wedo 2003: 61
the gendered dimensions of water use and management are fairly well-documented. it has long been noted in the gender and environment literature, for example, that women and girls generally assume primary responsibility for collecting water for drinking, cooking, washing, hygiene and raising small livestock, while men use water for irrigation or livestock farming and for industries (fisher 2006; khosla and pearl 2003). these distinct roles mean that women and men often have different needs and priorities in terms of water use. but while this knowledge isn't new, it does take on a pressing significance in the context of climate change. it is estimated that by 2025, almost two thirds of the world's population are likely to experience some kind of water stress, and for one billion of them the shortage will be severe and socially disruptive (wedo 2003: 61). climate change may also lead to increasing frequency and intensity of floods and deteriorating water quality. this is likely to have a particularly harsh effect on women and girls because of their distinct roles in relation to water use and their specific vulnerabilities in the context of disasters (see the section on disasters). in drought-prone areas affected by desertification, for example, the time absorbed by water collection will increase as women and children (mostly girls) will have to travel greater distances to find water. the heavy rainfalls and more frequent floods predicted to result from climate change will also increase women's workloads, as they will have to devote more time to collecting water and to cleaning and maintaining their houses after flooding. this is time that could be spent in school, earning an income or participating in public life. walking long distances to fetch water and fuel can expose women and girls to harassment or sexual assault, especially in areas of conflict; there are many accounts of women and girls being attacked when searching for water and kindling in refugee camps around darfur (msf 2005). in urban areas, water collection is also an issue as women and girls may spend hours queuing for intermittent water supplies (wedo 2003). in the context of climate change, it is imperative that policies and programmes draw on the existing body of knowledge on gender and water to inform interventions - and scale these up fast. there is evidence that simple strategies work. for example, providing local water sources frees up time for women to engage in income-generation by reducing the time required to fetch water and making domestic tasks faster to complete. it also has a positive impact on school attendance: in morocco, a world bank rural water supply and sanitation project succeeded in increasing girls' school attendance by 20 percent over four years, in part by reducing the traditional burden on them to fetch water (fisher 2006). it is evident that further participatory research with local communities on the benefits that the provision of local water sources could bring would provide enough convincing evidence to justify the infrastructural costs involved.
During what season did the model produce an underestimation?
winter
What is the elevation of the climate station used in this study?
1829 m
Is the climate of the station location dryer that that of a glacier?
the value of pfcf 1.8 reflects the drier climate at the station location compared to the glacier
in general, the model fit to both streamflow and glacier mass balance is good and within the performance range of similar modelling applications in glacierized watersheds. the model tended to produce some systematic underand overestimation of discharge, including an underestimation during winter. however, winter streamflow data are often influenced by ice cover and the record contains many periods of 'estimated' values, which may be higher than in reality. the error of about 5% in the annual flow is well within the range of common gauging errors. the climate station used in this study is located ca. 20 km from the basin outlet at a relatively high elevation of 1829 m. though this station is fairly close to the basin, considering the remoteness of the area, the strong climatic gradients in the area required that some adjustments be made to the daily weather data. the value of pfcf 1.8 reflects the drier climate at the station location compared to the glacier.
What did some states adopt?
some states have adopted tighter thresholds for automobile emissions
Any year  The US Supreme Court ruled?
2006
What is the effect of the Obama administration's invention?
the obama administration's subsequent "endangerment finding" that carbon dioxide co2) and other greenhouse gases endanger public health and welfare
throughout most of us history, state and local governments have had the primary responsibility for environmental protection richard l. revesz 2001 however, since the passage of the national environmental policy act in 1969, the federal role has increased significantly. but while federal environmental laws establish various standards, they typically leave states free to adopt more stringent requirements. some states have adopted tighter thresholds for automobile emissions; others have created their own "superfund" programs; and others have implemented their own statebased environmental protection acts revesz and robert n. stavins 2007 the coexistence of state and federal programs is likely to continue in the context of us climate change policy. although congressional proposals for cap-and-trade or other forms of carbon pricing have stalled, federal climate policy moves forward, in part through greenhouse gas ghg regulation by the us epa under the clean air act, called for by the 2006 us supreme court decision in massachusetts versus epa, the obama administration's subsequent "endangerment finding" that carbon dioxide co2) and other greenhouse gases endanger public health and welfare, and the consequent designation in 2010 of co2 as a pollutant under the clean air act.
An example estimate of the residual damage from adaptation of agriculture can be provided by the study of what?
the adaptation study of the wheat crop in australia
The effect of adaptation through changes in sowing dates and crop varieties on the gross value of the national wheat crop was simulated by who, and in what year?
howden and jones (2004
Without adaptation, the maximum potential increase under climate change for 2080 was what percentage of gross value of the national crop?
without adaptation the maximum potential increase under climate change for 2080 was 10% of gross value of the national crop
costs of the residual damage from climate change after adaptation of agriculture, forestry and fisheries are difficult to find. an example estimate of the residual damage from adaptation of agriculture can be provided by interpretation of the adaptation study of the wheat crop in australia. the effect of adaptation through changes in sowing dates and crop varieties on the gross value of the national wheat crop was simulated by howden and jones (2004). uncertainty in response was represented using an ensemble of ipcc scenarios and spatial variability across australia. without adaptation the maximum potential increase under climate change for 2080 was 10% of gross value of the national crop - $0.3 billion per year (figure 2.1). with adaptation there was a median increase of $158 million per year in crop value, but with a range of values about this, many below zero, and a small chance of a 20% decrease in crop value ($0.6 billion per year) with the uncertainty that was sampled (figure 2.1). as a proportion, this represents a residual damage of about 20%.
What is ModelE?
we conducted climate model simulations with a state-of-the-art general circulation model, modele from the national aeronautics and space administration goddard institute for space studies schmidt et al. 2006], which includes a module to calculate the transport and removal of aerosol particles koch et al. 2006
How to calculate sea ice using atmospheric model?
the atmospheric model is connected to a full ocean general circulation model with calculated sea ice, thus allowing the ocean to respond quickly at the surface and on yearly timescales in the deeper ocean
we conducted climate model simulations with a state-of-the-art general circulation model, modele from the national aeronautics and space administration goddard institute for space studies schmidt et al. 2006], which includes a module to calculate the transport and removal of aerosol particles koch et al. 2006]. the atmospheric model is connected to a full ocean general circulation model with calculated sea ice, thus allowing the ocean to respond quickly at the surface and on yearly timescales in the deeper ocean. we run the atmospheric portion of the model at 4   5  latitude-longitude resolution, with 23 vertical layers extending to a model top of 80 km. the coupled oceanic general circulation model
Which two dependent factors are directly affected by the mixing level in the reactor?
considering the dependence between the substrate concentration and the microbial activity, the importance represented by the mixing level in the reactor becomes evident
Which direction does dispersed biomass move in relation to the reactor sewage?
the dispersed biomass has a density close to the sewage and moves itself in practically the same direction and velocity of the sewage inside the reactor
Based on this article, is it good or bad for the biofilm thickness to be high?
if the biofilm thickness is very high, the substrate consumption along the biofilm could be such, that the internal layers have substrate deficiencies, which reduce their activity
if the biofilm thickness is high, there can be limitations for the diffusion of the substrate into the biofilm. the potential difference between the activity of the dispersed and attached biomass and the consequent substrate removal rate can be explained as follows (lubberding, 1995). the dispersed biomass has a density close to the sewage and moves itself in practically the same direction and velocity of the sewage inside the reactor. as a result, the biomass stays exposed to the same fraction of liquid for a larger period, leading to a low substrate concentration in the neighbourhood of the cell. with the low substrate concentrations, the bacterial activity and the substrate removal rate are also lower. only at a certain distance from the cell is the substrate concentration higher. considering the dependence between the substrate concentration and the microbial activity, the importance represented by the mixing level in the reactor becomes evident. in the attached biomass systems, the density of the support medium together with the biomass is very different from the density of the liquid in the reactor, allowing the occurrence of velocity gradients between the liquid and the external 318 basic principles of wastewater treatment layer of the biofilm. as a result, the cells are continually exposed to new substrates, potentially increasing their activity. however, if the biofilm thickness is very high, the substrate consumption along the biofilm could be such, that the internal layers have substrate deficiencies, which reduce their activity. in these conditions, the attachment with the support medium reduces and the biomass can be dislodged from the support medium.
As summarized in the processes through which an organization's climate might affect its performance have been brought together in overall frameworks by whom?
as summarized in the processes through which an organization's climate might affect its performance have been brought together in overall frameworks by kopelman et al (1990) and sparrow (2001
What was examined here?
consistent with those perspectives, the role of overall job satisfaction as a possible mediator of climate-productivity associations was examined here
How many aspects of climate were examined?
across the 17 aspects of climate that were examined, some were more strongly associated with subsequent productivity than were others
as summarized in the processes through which an organization's climate might affect its performance have been brought together in overall frameworks by kopelman et al (1990) and sparrow (2001). consistent with those perspectives, the role of overall job satisfaction as a possible mediator of climate-productivity associations was examined here. average job satisfaction in a company was found to predict later company productivity (r .44; p .01), and this significant association was retained after controls for previous productivity, company size and industrial sector. across the 17 aspects of climate that were examined, some were more strongly associated with subsequent productivity than were others. following the rationale set out in the the paper's first prediction implied that more strongly-predictive aspects of climate would be those that were more affectively loaded, here indexed in terms of
What do parameters derived from comparison with data on RbMnF3 show?
using parameters derived from comparison with data on rbmnf3, one can estimate its contribution in mnf2 to be two orders of magnitude smaller than the data 34 
What is the challenge to the theory posed by the temperature and momentum-dependent peaks?
the challenge to theory posed by the temperatureand momentum-dependent peaks in the magnon linewidth in mnf2 should stimulate new activity in the field of spin-wave decay mechanisms
What detailed evaluation of the proposed processes does MnF2 permit?
high-resolution lifetime measurements over the full brillouin zone in a relatively simple antiferromagnet such as mnf2 permit detailed evaluation of proposed processes, which should provide a basis for addressing such interactions in more complex magnetic systems
other mechanisms that may contribute to the presence of this peak include twoand threemagnon non-momentum-conserving processes that originate from scattering from defects 25 33 34 ). the linewidth originating from the latter process is peaked at intermediate q using parameters derived from comparison with data on rbmnf3, one can estimate its contribution in mnf2 to be two orders of magnitude smaller than the data 34 ). the challenge to theory posed by the temperatureand momentum-dependent peaks in the magnon linewidth in mnf2 should stimulate new activity in the field of spin-wave decay mechanisms. high-resolution lifetime measurements over the full brillouin zone in a relatively simple antiferromagnet such as mnf2 permit detailed evaluation of proposed processes, which should provide a basis for addressing such interactions in more complex magnetic systems.
What are the eight principal types of actors relevant in this context?
actions by different actors, with different sets of assets and capabilities, loosely map on to these scale categories. the principal types of actor in this context are: 1) individual people (affected by floods, in proximity to floods, or subject to flood risk); 2) community-based organisations; 3) local health care providers (dispensaries, surgeries, clinics, health centres, hospitals); 4) local service providers in preventive health (health education, public safety and environmental health teams); 5) local water and sanitation providers; 6) regional and national government departments; 7) non-governmental organisations (ngos); 8) international agencies
What is one key dimension of geographical variation between North and South?
one of the key dimensions of geographical variation is the disparity in health outcomes between north and south that has been indicated in chapter 3, and which is reflected further in this chapter
What are three context-specific areas differential coping capacity relates to outside of the distribution of material resources?
differential coping capacity relates not just to the distribution of material resources but also to context-specific aspects of culture, social organisation and relations of social power that may shape human vulnerability, risk perception and risk behaviour
actions by different actors, with different sets of assets and capabilities, loosely map on to these scale categories. the principal types of actor in this context are: 1) individual people (affected by floods, in proximity to floods, or subject to flood risk); 2) community-based organisations; 3) local health care providers (dispensaries, surgeries, clinics, health centres, hospitals); 4) local service providers in preventive health (health education, public safety and environmental health teams); 5) local water and sanitation providers; 6) regional and national government departments; 7) non-governmental organisations (ngos); 8) international agencies. as well as reflecting different hazard management stages and scales of action, we also try to depict as far as possible actions in different global regions. one of the key dimensions of geographical variation is the disparity in health outcomes between north and south that has been indicated in chapter 3, and which is reflected further in this chapter. however, it is important to note that the disparities are more complex and less bipolar than any developed/developing country division might suggest. differential coping capacity relates not just to the distribution of material resources but also to context-specific aspects of culture, social organisation and relations of social power that may shape human vulnerability, risk perception and risk behaviour. section 4.2 now discusses in detail the findings from the literature and material we have surveyed, examining a series of response themes in turn. it should be noted from the outset that relatively few of these studies or reports directly focus on health issues and that there is a paucity of analytical material by which to gauge the effectiveness of many of the responses described. however, each section raises a number of issues that feed into the further analytical discussion in chapter 5.
Who consider high productivity scenario?
hbl also consider a "high productivity" scenario for 2030 (again just 10% probability of this occurring) in which world prices fall as a result of climate change
How the results are reversed?
 here, the results are largely reversed, with poverty falling amongst urban and wage earning households, and rising amongst those households earning their living in farming
What is the authors opinion about climate change (2030)?
the authors' most likely climate change scenario for 2030 (the mean outcome from this uncertain distribution of climate shocks) suggests little change in world prices due to modest productivity effects and offsetting impacts in northern (higher yields) and tropical (lower yields) latitudes
hbl also consider a "high productivity" scenario for 2030 (again just 10% probability of this occurring) in which world prices fall as a result of climate change. here, the results are largely reversed, with poverty falling amongst urban and wage earning households, and rising amongst those households earning their living in farming. the authors' most likely climate change scenario for 2030 (the mean outcome from this uncertain distribution of climate shocks) suggests little change in world prices due to modest productivity effects and offsetting impacts in northern (higher yields) and tropical (lower yields) latitudes. consequently the poverty impacts are muted. however, as previously noted, gradual climate change may be less onerous for the poor than the occurrence of extreme climate events such as flooding, drought and heat waves. the poor tend to be more vulnerable to extreme events since they live in more exposed locations, spend more of their income on food, and rely heavily on farming for their incomes. ahmed, diffenbaugh and hertel (2009) use the same basic modeling framework as do hbl to explore the impacts of extreme (1 in 30 chance) adverse climate events under current (1970-2000) climate as well as under future (2070-2100) climate. these authors find that current climate volatility has a particularly severe impact on poverty in bangladesh, southern africa and mexico, with urban wage earning households experiencing the sharpest increase in poverty. in attempting to predict the impact of increasingly intense extreme climate events in the future, the authors focus on the impact of drought (measured as the longest period of consecutive dry days) which increases in 11 of the 16 countries under examination. they find the largest rises in national poverty headcount in zambia (4.6% of the national population) and mexico (1.8% of population) as a result of these increased climate extremes. impacts on non-priced goods
What decisions do individuals or organizations face that affect or depend on climate?
as individuals or organizations, people face many decisions that affect or depend on climate. these include choices about how energy is produced and consumed, how land is used and protected, how insurance policies are written and honored, and how tropical diseases are prevented and treated
Why is climate science needed?
climate science is needed to focus on choices that matter and to get the facts right
Why is decision science needed?
decision science is needed to identify the facts that should matter most when people evaluate their options
as individuals or organizations, people face many decisions that affect or depend on climate. these include choices about how energy is produced and consumed, how land is used and protected, how insurance policies are written and honored, and how tropical diseases are prevented and treated. each choice reflects the decision makers' concerns about climate change and about other issues as well. thus, people concerned about their homes' energy efficiency must consider not only the effectiveness of different options (insulation, windows, thermostats, etc.), but also the associated costs (financing, tax credits, payback periods, etc.), hassles (contractors, disruption, permits, etc.), information quality, and so on. businesses concerned about their environmental footprint must consider not only the effectiveness of different options (electronic meetings, carbon offsets, cogeneration, etc.), but also their associated costs (reputation benefits, impacts on employee morale, etc.). analogous complexity faces people who want to relocate from endangered coasts (but have strong local ties), who want to preserve local biological reserves (but face wealthy developers), who want to build green workplaces (but must answer to demanding investors), who would like to fly less (but have far-flung families), and so on. in each case, if people forgo an opportunity to reduce climate change or to mitigate its effects, then they might not understand or care about climate. however, in each case, informed, caring people might have defensible reasons for declining the climate-related action. even actions that pass their personal cost-benefit test still might not pass their personal cost-effectiveness test. they might have better things to do with their time or money, or they might choose to wait for better options (e.g., more efficient and stylish cars; an empty nest, which allows for major downsizing). it is impossible to judge people fairly or to provide them with needed information without knowing what is on their minds when they formulate, resolve, implement, and revise climate-related choices. acquiring that knowledge requires research that is informed by climate science, decision science, and social science. climate science is needed to focus on choices that matter and to get the facts right. decision science is needed to identify the facts that should matter most when people evaluate their options. social science is needed to describe people's perceptions of those critical facts, given the available information, as well as their goals when making choices. together, these sciences can show where communication has broken down between citizens and scientists, how it might be improved, and what limits there are to lay understanding 3-5 ). describing any decision well requires dedicated research, drawing on results and methods regarding decision-making processes per se. the next section sketches some of those processes as they relate to climate-related decisions. moser and dilling 6 summarize climate decision research 7-9 ).
How have others accounted for acclimatization?
by shifting current temperature-mortality relationships to the future
Using the method of shifting current temperature-mortality relationships to the future, what happens to the heat threshold?
increases with time but the slope of the temperature-mortality relationship remains unchanged
What are the 3 possibilities of future acclimatization considered by Gosling et al. (2009)?
no acclimatization, acclimatization to an increase of 2 degc, and acclimatization to an increase of 4 degc
others have accounted for acclimatization by shifting current temperature-mortality relationships to the future. using this method, the heat threshold increases with time but the slope of the temperature-mortality relationship remains unchanged. dessai (2003) assumed that complete acclimatization to an extra 1 degc warming in maximum temperature is reached every three decades. gosling et al. (2009) considered three possibilities of future acclimatization: no acclimatization, acclimatization to an increase of 2 degc, and acclimatization to an increase of 4 degc. how acclimatization might reduce the impacts of climate change is not well understood, and there is no consensus on how to estimate its effect. we recommend conducting sensitivity analyses using different approaches to model population acclimatization when projecting future heat-related mortality.
What is the matrix method?
the creation of the a matrix completely automated, the system of equation (1) can be consecutively solved for every combination of possible solutions, that obeys the minimum imposed distance between two consecutive breakpoints
Define linear equations:
this approach of solving several times a linear system of equations changing the position and the number of breakpoints, was found to be preferable to the approach of solving a non-linear system of equations that arises when one considers the breakpoint positions as unknowns, which results in a larger number of computer operations needed by the converging condition of the non-linear scheme. the chosen approach also made it possible, and easy, to impose any kind of condition between two consecutive trends
What are the conditions imposed between two consecutive trends?
this problem is presently being addressed. nevertheless, it must be pointed out that the number of breakpoints is essentially determined by the conditions imposed between two consecutive trends
with the creation of the a matrix completely automated, the system of equation (1) can be consecutively solved for every combination of possible solutions, that obeys the minimum imposed distance between two consecutive breakpoints. one starts with the case of one breakpoint, up to a maximum of twelve breakpoints. for each of these cases one gets the best fit, that satisfies the desired conditions between two consecutive linear trends. at the end, the solution that minimizes the residual sum of squares is chosen. this approach of solving several times a linear system of equations changing the position and the number of breakpoints, was found to be preferable to the approach of solving a non-linear system of equations that arises when one considers the breakpoint positions as unknowns, which results in a larger number of computer operations needed by the converging condition of the non-linear scheme. the chosen approach also made it possible, and easy, to impose any kind of condition between two consecutive trends. furthermore, the adopted procedure obtains all the partial solutions with less breakpoints and allows one to build a series of the sum of the square residuals of the best fit with one, two or three breakpoints, up to a maximum of twelve. probably this series could be used to study the significance of solutions with several breakpoints by analyzing the relative decrease of the square sum of residuals. this problem is presently being addressed. nevertheless, it must be pointed out that the number of breakpoints is essentially determined by the conditions imposed between two consecutive trends. it is strongly recommended that, whenever the breakpoint positions are separated by the minimum period allowed, an eye inspection of the series best fit result is performed. to illustrate the method, it will now be applied to three time series of climate parameters.
Why is the crop model impacts negative?
the crop model projects negative impacts of higher temperatures, especially in regions with already higher temperatures. incomes largely depend on subsidies and market conditions
What is you observed especially negative effects?
we observed especially negative effects of high temperatures on farmers' incomes in french regions with low regional farm diversity
fig. 4. spatial distribution of the correlation between inter-annual variability in temperature and waterlimited yields [r(ywat,temp)], and relationships to average temperature (temp, degc) from 1990-2003. in contrast to what is observed in fig. 2, the crop model projects negative impacts of higher temperatures, especially in regions with already higher temperatures. incomes largely depend on subsidies and market conditions. a more complex approach is thus needed to unravel the impacts on farmers' incomes specifically related to climatic variability and climate change. although in general not significant, we observed especially negative effects of high temperatures on farmers' incomes in french regions with low regional farm diversity. diversity in management strategies is primarily determined by biophysical conditions, farming objectives, and perceptions. explaining these relationships is not an aim of this analysis, but may be important for planning adaptation. it is not argued in this paper that the adaptation in terms of farm diversification as currently observed is based on conscious planned adaptation. a characteristic feature of complex adaptive systems is selforganization without intent (levin 1998, walker et al. 2004). although the dynamics of socioecological systems (here: agricultural systems) are dominated by human actors (here: farmers) who do exhibit intent, the system as a whole does not. adaptation can be planned by institutions, but a region can only to a limited extent be considered as an actor with the ability to adapt. high farm diversity can be an emergent property in regions where farmers adapt their management in different ways. nevertheless, the observation that farm diversity can reduce the vulnerability of regional food production to climate variability points to a promising regional adaptation strategy for agriculture to climate change that has been largely overlooked so far. implications for agriculture are considerable as present developments in many
The mother rock mineralogy was derived from which maps?
was derived from recently updated geological maps (scale: 1 50 000, geological survey of austria, unpublished information
The distribution of chromic Cambisols was extrapolated from how many points?
557 sample points in the study area and adjacent mountain ranges using a binary classification tree procedure with topographical variables (altitude, slope, eros, wet and their interactions) as predictors (misclassification rate 13
Information on current vegetation cover, including the distribution of pine bushes, comes from a vegetation map at which scale?
a fine-scale vegetation map (1 10 000, dirnbock
topography, characterized by slope inclination (slope), a topographical wetness index (wet), a topographical soil erosion index (eros), and an estimate of topographically modified near-surface wind velocity during strong, north-westerly winds (wsp). additionally, we provide data sets on bedrock mineralogy (geo), spatial distribution of chromic cambisols, and current vegetation cover. bedrock mineralogy was derived from recently updated geological maps (scale: 1 50 000, geological survey of austria, unpublished information). the distribution of chromic cambisols was extrapolated from 557 sample points in the study area and adjacent mountain ranges using a binary classification tree procedure with topographical variables (altitude, slope, eros, wet and their interactions) as predictors (misclassification rate 13%). information on current vegetation cover, including pine shrub distribution, comes from a fine-scale vegetation map (1 10 000, dirnbock
What has been well studies in ectotherms?
the concept of co-adaption between thermoregulation and thermal sensitivity has been well studied in ectotherms (angilletta 2009; kingsolver 2009) and to a lesser extent in homeothermic endotherms (especially humans) (benzinger 1961; wright 2002
What is an interesting comparison mentioned?
an interesting comparison of the relationships between thermal sensitivity and thermoregulation may also come from examining species with varying migratory patterns
What should highly migratory or nomadic spieces avoid?
highly migratory or nomadic species should largely avoid harsh environmental conditions and periods of low availability of energy
the concept of co-adaption between thermoregulation and thermal sensitivity has been well studied in ectotherms (angilletta 2009; kingsolver 2009) and to a lesser extent in homeothermic endotherms (especially humans) (benzinger 1961; wright 2002). however, few attempts have been made to generalize the concept to encompass all endothermic species across the entire gradient of thermoregulatory patterns (angilletta et al. 2010). in very general terms, homeothermic individuals, populations, or species should have narrower thermal performance curves than do heterothermic individuals, populations, or species. thus, a hibernator should be able to maintain some level of performance (even if it is very low) over a wider range of tbs than should a highly homeothermic species. likewise, if expression of the trait is highly plastic, the performance breadth should widen during the season in which the animal displays the widest range of tbs, which can vary even within a species (hetem et al. 2009). an interesting comparison of the relationships between thermal sensitivity and thermoregulation may also come from examining species with varying migratory patterns. highly migratory or nomadic species should largely avoid harsh environmental conditions and periods of low availability of energy; thus, we expect these species to display performance curves with narrow breadths. conversely, nonmigrants must cope with a wider range of tas and availabilities of energy, and should therefore be less sensitive to changes in tb. if thermoregulation and thermal sensitivity are co-adapted, we would therefore expect migrants to be relatively less heterothermic compared to closely related nonmigratory species. note that the presence of heterothermic migrants (e.g., hummingbirds and some bats) does not negate this prediction. if fact, it will be of interest to determine whether the most migratory species in these groups are also the most thermally specialized.
What three barriers act together against situating climate change adaptation?
barriers acting together: contingent, cumulative and cross-scale barriers
Many parts of which country have been constrained by rapid and accumulative social-ecological change?
africa
Name first two drivers in Africa that inhibit the possibility of responding to climate variability and risk?
population growth, conflicts and competition between groups
barriers acting together: contingent, cumulative and cross-scale barriers situating climate change adaptation within the development and political context and in relation to other stressors in many parts of africa, especially the drylands, traditional, autonomous adaptation strategies have been constrained by rapid and accumulative social-ecological change. drivers such as population growth, conflicts and competition between groups, land privatisation, land degradation, widespread poverty, hiv/aids, poorly conceived social and environmental policies, and erosion of traditional knowledge inhibit the possibility of responding to climate variability and risk in ways that people did in the past.1, 19,51,69,96,97,98,99 for example, like in other contexts and countries100, laube et al.101
What approach is presented in this study?
approach to modeling potential climate-driven changes in habitat for tree and bird species in the eastern united states
What is the name of framework used in this study?
modfacs
What method is used to calculate colonization potentials for some species?
shift
we present an approach to modeling potential climate-driven changes in habitat for tree and bird species in the eastern united states. first, we took an empirical-statistical modeling approach, using randomforest, with species abundance data from national inventories combined with soil, climate, and landscape variables, to build abundance-based habitat models for 134 tree and 147 bird species. we produced lists of species for which suitable habitat tends to increase, decrease, or stay the same for any region. independent assessments of trends of large trees versus seedlings across the eastern u.s. show that 37 of 40 species in common under both studies are currently trending as modeled. we developed a framework, modfacs, in which we used the literature to assign default modification factor scores for species characteristics that cannot be readily assessed in such models, including 12 disturbance factors (for example, drought, fire, insect pests), nine biological factors (for example, dispersal, shade tolerance), and assessment scores of novel climates, long-distance extrapolations, and output variability by climate model and emission scenario. we also used a spatially explicit cellular model, shift, to calculate colonization potentials for some species, based on their abundance, historic dispersal distances, and the fragmented nature of the landscape. by combining results from the three efforts, we can create projections of potential climate change impacts over the next 100 years or so. here we emphasize some of the lessons we have learned over 16 years in hopes that they may help guide future experiments, modeling efforts, and management. key words: climate change; eastern united states; randomforest; statistical modeling; migration; trees; birds; distrib; shift; modfacs.
When did the "little ice age" end?
by the end of the nineteenth century the mean global temperature was rising steadily, heralding the end of the ' little ice age 
How many periods of world climates exist?
four periods stand out in the recent history of world climates
What made transporting ice become dangerous?
the first world war
the first world war took the young men who harvested the ice off the land, and made the seas dangerous for those shipping it. <s121>* the increasing use of the refrigerator obviated the need for the laborious process of ice collection and storage. <s121>* the third reason for the demise of the ice-house was much less obvious. it was because the climate had changed. by the end of the nineteenth century the mean global temperature was rising steadily, heralding the end of the ' little ice age ' four periods stand out in the recent history of world climates, as shown in figure 10.2
What does figure 1 show?
global multi-model means of surface warming
Average temperature will increase to what for the East Africa region?
2050
Where is figure one taken from?
ipcc's fourth assessment report (ar4
there are considerable differences between sres emission scenarios, in terms of projected changes in temperatures and rainfall for different regions. figure 1, taken from the ipcc's fourth assessment report (ar4), shows global multi-model means of surface warming (relative to 1980-1999) for the scenarios a2, a1b and b1 (meehl et al., 2007). there is not that much difference between the three scenarios in global warming impacts to 2050, although thereafter the differences become considerable. there are also substantial regional variations in temperature shifts. many gcms project mean average temperature increases to 2050 for the east africa region, for example, that are larger than the global mean for scenario a2, of between about 1.5 to 2.5 degc (compare with figure 1).
The conclusion of the 2008 article was about which politicians - Barack Obama and John McCain
we concluded our 2008 article by discussing the imminent election between senators barack obama and john mccain
What does McCain's victory suggest? May possibly help to reduce skepticism about climate change among ordinary Republicans
this led us to suggest that a mccain victory, and subsequent leadership, might possibly help reduce climate change skepticism among rank-and-file republicans
What did Secretary of State John Kerry sign? the Paris agreement reached at COP21 last December
thus, although secretary of state john kerry signed the paris agreement reached at cop21 last december
we concluded our 2008 article by discussing the imminent election between senators barack obama and john mccain, noting that "it seems certain that regardless of who wins the upcoming election, the united states will have a significantly different form of leadership on global warming than it has had under george w. bush."76 we argued that mccain was a rare republican playing a leadership role on climate change in the u.s. senate and that his positions on climate and energy were not all that different from obama's. this led us to suggest that a mccain victory, and subsequent leadership, might possibly help reduce climate change skepticism among rank-and-file republicans. we noted that with an obama victory, in contrast, "we could see republican trends toward increased skepticism continue for the next several years,"77 and of course this is what has occurred, as we have documented. looking to this year's election, the situation is more complicated by the growth of overall partisan polarization in american politics, and the much more prominent role of the u.s. congress as potential foe of the presidency in climate change matters. as is obvious from our present situation, even when a president decides to prioritize action on climate change--as obama has done over the past couple of years--the effectiveness of that president's actions can be limited by a recalcitrant congress (especially if both the house and senate are controlled by the opposing party). thus, although secretary of state john kerry signed the paris agreement reached at cop21 last december, commentators note that the "paris agreement almost certainly would have been stronger if the obama administration had not been constrained by gop hostility to fighting man-made climate change,"78 a key factor leading to pessimistic assessments of the likely effectiveness of the agreement.79 besides trying to undermine the agreement, republicans in congress and many states are doing their best to block implementation of the president's clean power plan designed to reduce carbon emissions from u.s. power plants, a critical component of the obama administration's strategy for reducing greenhouse gas emissions to help meet our nation's paris agreement commitments.80
What are in agreement with previous reports of a strong seasonal velocity gradient on Baltoro Glacier?
summer and winter velocity data are in agreement with previous reports of a strong seasonal velocity gradient on baltoro glacier (mayer and others, 2006; fig. 6
What is a strong consistency for Baltoro Glacier?
there is a strong consistency in flow profiles for the lowermost 10 km of the glacier snout, beyond which the summer motion significantly exceeds winter motion
What is a notable feature of the seasonal velocity data for Baltoro Glacier?
a notable feature of the seasonal velocity data is the apparent speed-up of baltoro glacier during winter months in recent years. centre-line profiles demonstrate that the data collected over winter 2007/08 exceed those collected over winter 2003/04 by as much as 25%, with a gradual increase in the intervening years (fig. 6
summer and winter velocity data are in agreement with previous reports of a strong seasonal velocity gradient on baltoro glacier (mayer and others, 2006; fig. 6). there is a strong consistency in flow profiles for the lowermost 10 km of the glacier snout, beyond which the summer motion significantly exceeds winter motion. the greatest differences are apparent in the area around concordia, where the summer velocities exceed the winter velocities by up to 65%. further up-glacier, the seasonal speed-up is still evident, with summer velocities consistently exceeding winter velocities by up to  35%. a notable feature of the seasonal velocity data is the apparent speed-up of baltoro glacier during winter months in recent years. centre-line profiles demonstrate that the data collected over winter 2007/08 exceed those collected over winter 2003/04 by as much as 25%, with a gradual increase in the intervening years (fig. 6). again, the greatest differences are recorded around concordia, with, significantly, little annual variability detectable up-glacier on the baltoro south tributary. summer-only velocity data confirm a significant speed-up of the glacier during summer 2005, with velocities exceeding those during the similar period in 2004 by approximately 20% in the area immediately below concordia.
What did the Japanese government accomplish through economic incentives?
by using an economic incentive, the japanese government significantly increased the demand for green vehicles
How does the average consumer view long term and immediate benefits?
the average consumer may discount the long-term savings of driving a hybrid, but will readily appreciate such immediately tangible (in this case, financial) benefits
What is a good way to accomplish behavioral change?
giving people an immediate incentive, if possible, also makes behavior change easier
giving people an immediate incentive, if possible, also makes behavior change easier. for instance, the prospect of saving money over the next 20 years by weatherizing one's home may make economic sense, but may not effectively motivate action. in contrast, giving an immediate incentive can serve as an effective driver. for example, when presenting to a church, school, or community center group, climate change communicators can publicize the names of those who sign up for weatherization, thus providing an immediate social incentive to supplement the delayed economic incentive. by using an economic incentive, the japanese government significantly increased the demand for green vehicles. the government provided "scrap incentives," either tax breaks or rebates, for consumers to scrap their old cars and buy ecological vehicles. the average consumer may discount the long-term savings of driving a hybrid, but will readily appreciate such immediately tangible (in this case, financial) benefits.68
It was stated that the impacts of climate change in Africa are likely to be greatest where they co-occur with a range of other stresses. Which are the other stresses indicated?
population growth; unequal access to resources; inadequate access to water and sanitation [wgii 9.4.1]; food insecurity [wgii 9.6]; poor health systems [wgii 9.2.2, 9.4.3
How will these stresses and climate change affect people in Africa?
these stresses and climate change will increase the vulnerabilities of many people in africa
How much is the projected increase of arid and semiarid land in Africa by the 2080s?
an increase of 5-8% (60-90 million ha) of arid and semiarid land in africa is projected by the 2080s under a range of climate change scenarios
africa the impacts of climate change in africa are likely to be greatest where they co-occur with a range of other stresses (population growth; unequal access to resources; inadequate access to water and sanitation [wgii 9.4.1]; food insecurity [wgii 9.6]; poor health systems [wgii 9.2.2, 9.4.3]). these stresses and climate change will increase the vulnerabilities of many people in africa. [wgii 9.4] an increase of 5-8% (60-90 million ha) of arid and semiarid land in africa is projected by the 2080s under a range of climate change scenarios. [wgii 9.4.4] declining agricultural yields are likely due to drought and land degradation, especially in marginal areas. mixed rainfed systems in the sahel will be greatly affected by climate * * *
What is one example of a beneficial effect of climate change?
agricultural productivity could potentially rise in the mid-high latitudes in the case of modest temperature rise
What regions of the world will be most impacted by rising temperatures?
in this context, the developing countries are expected to be the hardest hit by climate change. in the tropics and sub-tropics even small temperature increases could drastically affect crop yields
What are some pre-existing challenges faced in these vulnerable regions of the world?
many of these countries are located in regions that are already subject to heat waves, drought, desertification, deforestation, flooding, tropical diseases and natural disasters as well as poverty and lack of infrastructure
climate change potential impacts in the future will imply both adverse and beneficial effects across different regions and sectors. agricultural productivity could potentially rise in the mid-high latitudes in the case of modest temperature rise. however, negative impacts will be increasing at higher rates than temperature increases. in this context, the developing countries are expected to be the hardest hit by climate change. in the tropics and sub-tropics even small temperature increases could drastically affect crop yields. human health would suffer from the diffusion of epidemic malaria and dengue and malnutrition and diseases could be caused by intensified extreme weather events. flooding and landslides will represent serious threats for human settlements, especially those located on low-lying coastal areas. in fact, some of the poorest nations are most vulnerable to climate change impacts and have minimal capacity to adapt. "many of these countries are located in regions that are already subject to heat waves, drought, desertification, deforestation, flooding, tropical diseases and natural disasters as well as poverty and lack of infrastructure".11 table 1 summarizes the probable impacts on the principal human systems deriving from climate change. further regional details can be found in annex i, taken from a recent work devoted to adaptation to climate change, in order to assess the impacts associated to the phenomenon, in terms of vulnerability and adaptive capacity and their distribution by region. it is by now widely acknowledged that "the impacts will be felt more acutely by those with least adaptive capacity: poor countries and the poor in developing countries".12 and that: "the vulnerability or susceptibility of a population group to the effects of climate change depends on the resilience of the surrounding natural landscape unit and society's capacity to adapt".13
What added impetus is due to the presence of some invertebrate species confined to feeding in the salt marsh - mangrove ecotone?
moreover, some invertebrate species appeared to be confined to feeding in the salt marsh - mangrove ecotone100 adding further impetus for conservation of these areas with climate change
What are examples of arboreal residents in mangroves?
these include spiders, ants, beetles and other insects, bats and birds
What are some examples of specialists on mangrove flora
eg leaf miners, wood borers, seed and insect feeders
climate change and the great barrier reef: a vulnerability assessment chapter 9: vulnerability of mangroves and tidal wetlands of the great barrier reef to climate change utilising mangroves143. mangroves also support a wide diversity of other invertebrates, for example153 species of macrobenthic species were recorded from missionary bay6. crab species, and other fauna partition the intertidal zone, with species having a preferences for differing inundation regimes. high intertidal salt marshes, which in some areas may be most vulnerable to sea level rise, have at least 13 species of crabs6,124. although there are many studies of fish use of fringing mangroves87, there is little knowledge of transient use of high intertidal salt marsh and salt flat areas. in a recent study of fish abundance in high intertidal salt marsh habitat, the abundance of fish was greater in the salt marsh than in the mangroves when adjusted for water volume, suggesting the high intertidal may provide important resources for fish124. moreover, some invertebrate species appeared to be confined to feeding in the salt marsh - mangrove ecotone100 adding further impetus for conservation of these areas with climate change. arboreal residents in mangroves are also highly diverse and abundant. these include spiders, ants, beetles and other insects, bats and birds. some are specialists on mangrove flora (eg leaf miners, wood borers, seed and insect feeders) and many have important effects on forest growth, structure and recruitment133,145,89,88.
who is associated with university of utrecht
institute for marine and atmospheric research utrecht
which department at the university of colorado is involved
department of atmospheric and oceanic sciences
which city is the university of colorado in
boulder, usa
institute for marine and atmospheric research utrecht, university of utrecht, utrecht, netherlands. 2royal netherlands meteorological institute, de bilt, netherlands. 3geological survey of denmark and greenland (geus), copenhagen, denmark. 4department of atmospheric and oceanic sciences, university of colorado, boulder, usa. 5department of geoscience remote sensing, delft university of technology, delft, netherlands. correspondence to: brice no"el (b.p.y.noel@uu.nl) we evaluate modelled greenland ice sheet (gris) near-surface climate, surface energy balance (seb) and surface mass balance (smb) from the updated regional climate model racmo2 (19582016). the new model version, referred to as racmo2.3p2, incorporates updated glacier outlines, topography and ice albedo fields. parameters in the cloud scheme governing the conversion of 5
Why should we lower the discount rate?
weitzman (1998) has proposed an interesting argument in favor of adopting even lower discount rates for investments that pay in the very long run, when there is a background risk on the growth rate
Who wrote a economic formula?
we first present a variant of it which enables us to connect the argument to ramsey's formula
What is Utilitarianism?
which is also, in the case of utilitarianism, the sum of expected utilities
weitzman (1998) has proposed an interesting argument in favor of adopting even lower discount rates for investments that pay in the very long run, when there is a background risk on the growth rate. we first present a variant of it which enables us to connect the argument to ramsey's formula, in a similar fashion as in gollier (2002). suppose that there is uncertainty about future consumption, and that our criterion is the expected value of social welfare (which is also, in the case of utilitarianism, the sum of expected utilities). let us again consider two small changes
Which scientist are clear on the di f erence between land carbon stocks and sinks?
land carbon scientists are clear on the di f erence between land carbon stocks and sinks
what does the word sink implies?
the term 'sink' always implies a net removal of carbon from the atmosphere -- in other words, a net f ux of carbon into the ecosystem
Name the state allowed to develop in forest?
forest is allowed to develop into an ecologically mature state, the carbon stock approaches a dynamic equilibrium with prevailing environmental conditions
land carbon scientists are clear on the di f erence between land carbon stocks and sinks, however policymakers and the interested citizen can be excused for not understanding (or sometimes forgetting) the distinction. as used in carbon cycle science, the term 'sink' always implies a net removal of carbon from the atmosphere -- in other words, a net f ux of carbon into the ecosystem. t ere is a persistent risk of confusion between a stock (in units of mass, g c) and a f ux (in units of mass/time, g c yr-1). both the ocean and the land are indeed taking up part of the co2 that is emitted by human activities, so they do constitute sinks. but this uptake is a transient e f ect as discussed below. t e land carbon stock can be described as a 'bu f er' by analogy with the term used in computer science to describe a device which temporarily stores data. t e impact of land use activity is appropriately reported or accounted for as a change in stock over a given time period, that is, a depletion or ref lling of the bu f er. when a forest is re-planted, at f rst it functions as a sink -- with the net uptake of co2 due to photosynthesis being greater than respiration -- and carbon is accumulating in woody biomass and soil. over time, the net sink rate declines as the growth rate decreases relative to respiration rates. if the forest is allowed to develop into an ecologically mature state, the carbon stock approaches a dynamic equilibrium with prevailing environmental conditions, where
Which is the best method for acquiring quantitative information ?
remote sensing from satellites is the best method for acquiring quantitative information on the global magnitude and spatial distribution of biomass burning
What does Remote sensing data include?
remote sensing data include observations of fire activity (ignition, location, and burnt area) and products such as temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, vegetation type, and normalized difference vegetation index that when fed into biogeochemical models or used with vegetation classification systems enable evaluation of fuel load and combustion completeness
What are the data's generated by remote sensing?
in addition remote sensing also generates data on pollutants emitted by biomass burning (see igactivities march 2007 newsletterfor a detailed description of satellite based instrument presently available for the measurement of fire activity and pollutant concentrations
remote sensing from satellites is the best method for acquiring quantitative information on the global magnitude and spatial distribution of biomass burning. remote sensing data include observations of fire activity (ignition, location, and burnt area) and products such as temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, vegetation type, and normalized difference vegetation index that when fed into biogeochemical models or used with vegetation classification systems enable evaluation of fuel load and combustion completeness.in addition remote sensing also generates data on pollutants emitted by biomass burning (see igactivities march 2007 newsletterfor a detailed description of satellite based instrument presently available for the measurement of fire activity and pollutant concentrations). figure 3 shows an example of some remote sensing products, particularly the spatial distribution and seasonal variation of southern hemisphere biomass burning derived from observations made with the terra satellite, including co mixing ratios from the measurement of pollution in the troposphere (mopitt) sensor and aod and fire counts from the moderate-resolution imaging spectrometer (modis) between september 23 and 30, 2003.figure 4 shows near real-time remote sensing observations of the 2010 russian wildfires with smoke and clouds derived from atmospheric infrared sounder visible wavelength radiance data overlying co concentrations. figure 5 shows aod data
What has led to the increased ability for local scale analysis?
this trend is, in part, due to the growing sophistication of climate modelling that allows for increasingly robust ways in which to down-scale climate change scenarios
What factors may influence the value of city-scale assessments?
the high population density of cities, their importance for many economic and social activities, and their roles as centres of administrative governance, all highlight the value of city-scale assessments
In what form have most studies to date been conducted?
o date, such studies have been primarily in qualitative terms
the study of potential climate change impacts at the city level, and responses to these risks, is a relatively new phenomenon, though it fits within a general trend in climate impact and adaptation assessment towards a more local scale analysis. this trend is, in part, due to the growing sophistication of climate modelling that allows for increasingly robust ways in which to down-scale climate change scenarios. it may also reflect the fact that climate change policy is increasingly recognising the need to address and adapt to the unavoidable consequences of climate change as well as reducing greenhouse gas emissions. the high population density of cities, their importance for many economic and social activities, and their roles as centres of administrative governance, all highlight the value of city-scale assessments. however, to date, such studies have been primarily in qualitative terms, though quantification of risks is increasing as city authorities and other stakeholders move from raising awareness of these risks to designing responses. 35
Define Yellow fever vaccine ?
yellow fever vaccine is cheap and highly effective. nevertheless, as already mentioned, enzootic transmission occurs in many countries that no longer support comprehensive preventive immunization
How urban dengue be increased?
the alarming rate of increase of urban dengue throughout the world, also transmitted by ae. aegypti (see below), suggests an increasingly serious risk of such outbreaks. climate. rainfall. in many enzootic areas, yellow fever is a highly seasonal disease
Is there any program to prevent dengue transmission?
most countries in the americas have a program for ae. aegypti control, ostensibly to prevent dengue transmission, but their efforts are largely ineffective and infestation rates are generally high
vaccination. yellow fever vaccine is cheap and highly effective. nevertheless, as already mentioned, enzootic transmission occurs in many countries that no longer support comprehensive preventive immunization. in the last 20 years incidence has increased rapidly, particularly in rural villages in west africa; some urban epidemics have also occurred 154 ). the alarming rate of increase of urban dengue throughout the world, also transmitted by ae. aegypti (see below), suggests an increasingly serious risk of such outbreaks. climate. rainfall. in many enzootic areas, yellow fever is a highly seasonal disease. rainfall is the principal determinant because the tree-hole breeding sites of the mosquitoes are scarce during long dry periods. vertical transmission from one generation of mosquitoes to another via the egg stage is well documented. in areas of interhuman transmission, outbreaks can continue during the dry season if water storage containers provide a significant source of mosquitoes 143 ). temperature. as with malaria, the extrinsic incubation period of the yellow fever virus decreases with increasing temperature, but the effect of temperature on mosquito survival and behavior is complex and hard to predict. in many endemic areas, temperatures in the yellow fever season are cooler than in the dry season but are much higher than the minimum for effective transmission, so variation among years is probably a minor factor in disease incidence. in temperate regions where summer transmission once occurred, the climate was clearly adequate for epidemic transmission even before the present warming phase. cool weather was a limiting factor only when winter approached. indeed, in many cities, normal summer temperatures were well above those of tropical regions where the disease is endemic. nonclimatic factors. as with malaria, transmission is influenced by a range of nonclimatic factors. many of these are associated with rapid population growth, urbanization, and economic development. contact with the forest cycle. in forested areas, hunting, clearance for agriculture, logging, road building, mining, oil prospecting, and other occupations promote contact of nonimmune humans with the forest transmission cycle. these activities eliminate the habitat that supports the cycle, but their associated human settlements provide a favorable environment for peridomestic species such as ae. aegypti thus increasing the risk of interhuman transmission. urbanization. the rapid growth of densely populated towns and cities throughout the tropics provides an increasingly favorable environment for epidemic transmission. even when piped water is available, the supply is often intermittent, so reserves of water are stored in containers that are a source of ae. aegypti other artifacts--buckets, flowerpots, bottles, cans, defunct household appliances, discarded tires, and many other items--can also serve as breeding sites if they accumulate rainwater. movement of people. extensive road building and cheap air travel, even in the poorest countries, have opened up remote areas to exploitation and development. in south america the resultant movement of nonimmune people into forested areas has been a major factor in the incidence of yellow fever. infected people traveling from endemic areas could introduce the virus to urban populations 155 ), but despite widespread recognition of this increasing risk, many countries do not enforce vaccination laws. cheap international air travel also has emerged as a significant factor in disease dissemination. for example, in 1996 an unvaccinated man died of yellow fever in tennessee after returning to the united states from a fishing trip on the amazon river 156 ), and there have recently been similar cases in europe. urban mosquito control. little attempt has been made to control yellow fever vectors in africa. residual treatments for malaria control were effective against ae. aegypti because the species tends to rest indoors. however, many countries are now abandoning the method in favor of bed nets impregnated with insecticide. these are not effective for yellow fever control because, unlike anophelines, ae. aegypti bites mainly in the daylight hours. during recent epidemics in west africa, urban indices of ae. aegypti were more than 100 times the minimum for epidemic transmission 157,158 ). the ae. aegypti eradication campaign. with the advent of ddt after world war ii, an attempt was made to avert the threat of urban yellow fever by eradicating ae. aegypti from the entire western hemisphere. the initial years of this campaign were remarkably successful. by 1961, 22 countries had been declared free of the species. however, as with the attempt to eradicate malaria, control was not sustained and some areas were not affected. the mosquito has now recolonized all its former territory, even the relatively remote island of bermuda. below the equator it has recently extended as far south as buenos aires. until recently it remained widespread in the united states but has now been displaced from many regions by ae. albopictus, an asian species that was introduced in shipments of used tires 159-161 ). this displacement of one species by another illustrates a major flaw in the popular debate on climate change: biotic responses to climate change cannot be predicted on the mere basis of climate envelopes. the distribution of a species is determined by its interaction with other species and by many other behavioral and ecologic factors. it is therefore naive to suggest that species will move to higher latitudes and altitudes simply on the basis of temperature change 162 ). since the eradication attempt, many cities have grown exponentially. most countries in the americas have a program for ae. aegypti control, ostensibly to prevent dengue transmission, but their efforts are largely ineffective and infestation rates are generally high. thus, in the aftermath of the eradication campaign and with the decline in preventive immunization, the risks of urban outbreaks of yellow fever are probably greater than at any time in the past 100 years 163 ).
What type of information does Resource managers need?
resource managers need locally based information to develop adaptive strategies for climate change and other issues. intermediate scales, including subbasin, water shed, and subwatershed, are essential scales and units for assessing vulnerability because different exposures to climatic variability and change produce a wide range of effects on resource values in different watersheds
What are the intermediate scales?
priority setting, planning, project design, and decisionmaking are conducted most often at the intermediate scales, so assessment at these scales is typically relevant and applicable to specific programs and projects
What are the way to can target watersheds ?
after relative ecological vulnerabilities are determined, and administrative and logistic feasibili ties are determined, land managers can target watersheds where resources can be most effectively invested to sustain or improve resilience
resource managers need locally based information to develop adaptive strategies for climate change and other issues. intermediate scales, including subbasin, water shed, and subwatershed, are essential scales and units for assessing vulnerability because different exposures to climatic variability and change produce a wide range of effects on resource values in different watersheds. therefore, appropriate adap tive responses, priorities, and prescriptions are needed for different locations (reid and furniss 1998). priority setting, planning, project design, and decisionmaking are conducted most often at the intermediate scales, so assessment at these scales is typically relevant and applicable to specific programs and projects. after relative ecological vulnerabilities are determined, and administrative and logistic feasibili ties are determined, land managers can target watersheds where resources can be most effectively invested to sustain or improve resilience. in 2010, a pilot watershed vulnerability assessment (wva) project, using a national forest-research collaboration, developed a draft assessment process that was then pilot tested by watershed and aquatic specialists on 11 national forests (table 6; fig. 10). the goal of the pilot wva was to quantify the current and projected future condition of watersheds as affected by climate change to inform management decisionmaking (fig. 11). because locally-based evaluation is a key component of the process, pilot forests were given latitude in geographic scale assessed, issues addressed, and reporting units used. pilot forests were asked to include infrastructure, aquatic species, and water uses in the assessments. it was also agreed that the analysis area would include at least one "river basin" watershed (hydrologic unit code [huc] 4). a principal objective of the pilot wva was to develop a generalized process that could be tailored to local data availability and resource investment (fig. 10). pilot forests were selected to provide a range of water resource issues and environ mental factors, and each forest brought different levels of staffing and expertise to the project. some forests had already begun to consider climate change and had some climate science available. the pilot results represent a range of analytical intensities, geographic settings, organizational settings, and subject-matter focus. a six-step process was developed (see box 4). it is based on a conceptual framework (fig. 11) that considered potential climate change effects as an additional factor affecting water resources, as influenced by watershed and hydrologic condition. these steps drew heavily from previous experience with watershed
How can lake levels provide information on climate?
because lake levels are extremely sensitive to summer temperature and albedo changes, fluctuations in their levels aid our understanding of climate change in the mcmurdo dry valleys region
What caused change in atmospheric circulation driven by the El Nin~o-Southern Oscillation?
it has been suggested that the summer cooling was caused by a change in atmospheric circulation driven by the el nin~o-southern oscillation (enso), resulting in a decrease in marine air mass influences reaching the dry valleys and an increased inflow to the region from west antarctica via the ross ice shelf bertler et al. 2004
What about the Antarctic temperature measurement?
analysis of antarctic radiosonde temperature profiles indicates that there has been a warming of the winter troposphere and cooling of the stratosphere over the last 30 years. the data show that regional midtropospheric figure 10. annual and seasonal near-surface temperature trends for stations with long in situ records. the trends are for the full length of each record
where ice cores are not available, lake levels provide information on climate. because lake levels are extremely sensitive to summer temperature and albedo changes, fluctuations in their levels aid our understanding of climate change in the mcmurdo dry valleys region. most lakes there rose from 0.7 to 3.3 m/decade in the 1970s-1990s chinn 1993], and lake wilson increased in volume by over 50% during that period webster et al. 1996]. there is some evidence that lake bonney has been increasing in size since the early 1900s chinn 1993]. a summer cooling trend during the 1990s significantly slowed this rising trend in lake levels doran et al. 2002]. it has been suggested that the summer cooling was caused by a change in atmospheric circulation driven by the el nin~o-southern oscillation (enso), resulting in a decrease in marine air mass influences reaching the dry valleys and an increased inflow to the region from west antarctica via the ross ice shelf bertler et al. 2004]. analysis of antarctic radiosonde temperature profiles indicates that there has been a warming of the winter troposphere and cooling of the stratosphere over the last 30 years. the data show that regional midtropospheric figure 10. annual and seasonal near-surface temperature trends for stations with long in situ records. the trends are for the full length of each record. the colors indicate the statistical significance of the trends. trends were computed for the full length of each record. most stations started reporting around the time of the international geophysical year in 1957/1958. autocorrelation was taken into account in computing significance levels.
What map was published by KOTTEK was published recently?
recently, a world map of k"oppen-geiger climate classification based on temperature and precipitation observations for the period 1951-2000 was published by kottek et al. (2006
Where can you find the map and underlying digital data?
both the printed map and the underlying digital data have been provided to the scientific community free of charge via the website http://koeppengeiger.vu-wien.ac.at
In what fields has the map become popular?
it became popular mainly in the fields of zoology, parasitology and public health (diaz et al., 2007; lloyd et al., 2007
recently, a world map of k"oppen-geiger climate classification based on temperature and precipitation observations for the period 1951-2000 was published by kottek et al. (2006). both the printed map and the underlying digital data have been provided to the scientific community free of charge via the website http://koeppengeiger.vu-wien.ac.at/. already a short-time after the release of the digital world map of k"oppen-geiger climate classification it was used in various studies, mostly to relate research results to regional climates. it became popular mainly in the fields of zoology, parasitology and public health (diaz et al., 2007; lloyd et al., 2007).
What are two physical indicators that are already in place for long term monitoring?
sea level and climate variables
What are three monitoring programs that should be put in place?
programs that cover vulnerable animals, plants and ecosystems are also needed
How many indicators are used in the model used currently used in the UK?
set of 34 climatic, environmental and socioeconomic indicators selected in the uk
although long-term monitoring programs are in place for physical indicators such as sea level and climate variables, programs that cover vulnerable animals, plants and ecosystems are also needed. species for which reliable historical records are available, and whose biology suggests may be sensitive indicators of climatic change, need to be identified and monitored. an excellent model for such a program is the set of 34 climatic, environmental and socioeconomic indicators selected in the uk (cannell et al 1999). a major goal for the future will also be to tackle the difficult task of untangling the signal of anthropogenic-induced climate impacts from the noise of background variation and land use change.
How many approaches can be used to facilitate the ranking process?
several different approaches can be used to facilitate the ranking process
How was the CPST developed?
the cpst was developed in conjunction with case study forests as a guide to setting priorities from schedule of project actions lists
What does the CPST improve decisions on?
in addition to its value as a back ground review tool, the cpst improves decisions about which projects deserve further attention for climate adaptation and which are unlikely to be affected by climate
several different approaches can be used to facilitate the ranking process. the cpst was developed in conjunction with case study forests as a guide to setting priorities from schedule of project actions lists. in addition to its value as a back ground review tool, the cpst improves decisions about which projects deserve further attention for climate adaptation and which are unlikely to be affected by climate. on olympic national forest, a reprioritization exercise involving paired workshops to review current information and to develop and rank adaptation options was used to address a wide range of management goals (box 17), thus arriving at outcomes similar to those achieved with the cpst.
What is used as an example of how model development can improve simulated blocking frequency?
atlantic-european blocking from two versions of the hadley centre global environmental model
What does the early version of the model show?
a strong bias toward low geopotential height in the far northern atlantic and high values in the subtropics
What was alleviated in more recent studies?
some of this bias
atlantic-european blocking from two versions of the hadley centre global environmental model (martin et al. 2006; ringer et al. 2006) is used as an example of how model development can improve simulated blocking frequency. the early version of this model shows a strong bias toward low geopotential height in the far northern atlantic and high values in the subtropics. this corresponds to a strong westerly bias in the model and the familiar lack of atlantic blocking (fig. 6, lower panel, dashed curve). in a more recent version of the model some of this bias has been alleviated (the exact changes to the model are irrelevant to our study here but note that the resolution is the same). the resulting model has a much smaller bias in the meridional gradient of geopotential height and, as expected from our analyses above, the diagnosed blocking frequency is significantly increased. finally, to confirm that this increase is indeed due to the change in the mean model state, we repeated the procedure in eq. (3) but now replaced the mean model state in the old model with that from the new model. figure 6 verifies that the change in blocking frequency is reproduced and changes in these common measures of blocking can be achieved by improving the mean state of the model without altering model resolution.
What were the collection sites selected to be judged have?
some collection sites were selected as areas that were judged to have vegetation and topographic characteristics that were representative of broader areas within the management units
What were the other collections obtained?
other collections were obtained along natural fire spread corridors, such as along coniferous canyon bottoms linking grasslands to uplands, with the explicit purpose of evaluating landscape-scale linkages and processes (e.g., kaib et al. 1996; kaib 1998; barton, swetnam, and baisan 2001
What did the scope and context of this chapter not allow?
the scope and context of this chapter does not allow a detailed and direct response to these critiques. in general, most of the critiques involve problems in estimating fire interval distributions (i.e., fire frequency analyses) and are only indirectly relevant to our focus on the historical aspects of past fire regimes
e1 and forest restoration efforts were underway or planned. some collection sites were selected as areas that were judged to have vegetation and topographic characteristics that were representative of broader areas within the management units. other collections were obtained along natural fire spread corridors, such as along coniferous canyon bottoms linking grasslands to uplands, with the explicit purpose of evaluating landscape-scale linkages and processes (e.g., kaib et al. 1996; kaib 1998; barton, swetnam, and baisan 2001). given the constraints listed above, the selection of study areas and trees was necessarily nonrandom and largely subjective, so the fire frequency estimates and other aspects of the reconstructed fire regimes may not be fully representative of larger surrounding areas. potential biases due to nonrandom sampling and problems with fire frequency analysis methods have been highlighted in recent critiques of tree-ring based fire histories (e.g., johnson and gutsell 1994; baker and ehle 2001). the scope and context of this chapter does not allow a detailed and direct response to these critiques. in general, most of the critiques involve problems in estimating fire interval distributions (i.e., fire frequency analyses) and are only indirectly relevant to our focus on the historical aspects of past fire regimes. in subsequent sections we will show that notwithstanding possible biases and limitations of the fire-scar record, well-replicated fire-scar chronologies can provide complete inventories of widespread fire events within sites, and useful indices of local to regional fire activity.
What is the effect of carbon dioxide on the Earth's atmosphere?
the proposition that carbon dioxide causes the temperature of the atmosphere to increase might fairly be regarded as the foundational piece of knowledge for "ordinary climate-science intelligence
What is the result of "human-caused global warming"?
that "human-caused global warming," if not reversed, "will result in flooding of many coastal regions" is an essential piece of information for someone with ocsi to have too
What is the probability that a conservative Republican believes in "human-caused global warming"?
that "human-caused global warming," if not reversed, "will result in flooding of many coastal regions" is an essential piece of information for someone with ocsi to have too. the probability that someone will correctly identify that proposition as "true" is indeed somewhat higher if that person is a "liberal democrat" than if she is a "conservative republican." but the probability that a conservative republican will not know that this is what "climate scientists believe" turns out to be very low
if one knows what to measure and how, then this conclusion becomes unmistakably clear. the proposition that carbon dioxide causes the temperature of the atmosphere to increase might fairly be regarded as the foundational piece of knowledge for "ordinary climate-science intelligence." it turns out that most americans know that. and the likelihood that they won't is not any lower if they are "conservative republicans" than if they are "liberal democrats" (figure 15). that "human-caused global warming," if not reversed, "will result in flooding of many coastal regions" is an essential piece of information for someone with ocsi to have too. the probability that someone will correctly identify that proposition as "true" is indeed somewhat higher if that person is a "liberal democrat" than if she is a "conservative republican." but the probability that a conservative republican will not know that this is what "climate scientists believe" turns out to be very low--
On What an exact definition for the vegetation response time depends upon?
an exact definition for the vegetation response time (x) depends upon the mathematical form of the vegetational response to a given climate change and upon the types of vegetational response that must occur for the response to be considered complete
If the functional form of the response is unknown, then how the response time can be defined?
if the functional form of the response is unknown, then the response time can still be defined by the general term relaxation time, which is the time required for the vegetation to complete some fraction or all of its total response to a step or pulse change in climate (chorley kennedy, 1971
How two types of vegetational response can be distinguish?
1) an 'immediate' type a response in which range extensions and soil development are not necessary for the vegetation to reach its new composition (v1) and 2) a 'full' type b response
an exact definition for the vegetation response time (x) depends upon the mathematical form of the vegetational response to a given climate change and upon the types of vegetational response that must occur for the response to be considered complete. for situations in which step-function climate changes induce an exponential lag-response in the vegetation (equation 1), the vegetation response time can be defined as the time the vegetation takes to reach i/e of the total response (clark, 1985). if the functional form of the response is unknown, then the response time can still be defined by the general term relaxation time, which is the time required for the vegetation to complete some fraction or all of its total response to a step or pulse change in climate (chorley kennedy, 1971). in considering situations in which the vegetational response depends upon several factors from seed dispersal to rates of disturbance, i have found it useful to distinguish between two types of vegetational response: 1) an 'immediate' type a response in which range extensions and soil development are not necessary for the vegetation to reach its new composition (v1) and 2) a 'full' type b response
How the majority of US residents consider climate change ?
although the majority of us residents consider climate change a serious problem, they generally think of it in geographically and temporally distant terms
US residents are alarmed by climate change topic ?
most us residents do not personally experience effects that are drastic enough on a regular basis to alarm them about climate change
What effects US residents can experience ?
scientists have found trends in extreme weather events, such as heat waves and flooding, that are consistent with climate change, such as increasing precipitation extremes in some parts of the united states
although the majority of us residents consider climate change a serious problem, they generally think of it in geographically and temporally distant terms. most us residents do not personally experience effects that are drastic enough on a regular basis to alarm them about climate change. in a july 2007 national survey, respondents believed that climate change was a "very serious threat" for "plants and animals" (52%), "people in other countries" (40%) and "people elsewhere in the united states" (30%). however, far fewer saw it as a "very serious threat" to "you and your family" (19%) and "your community" (18%).\\x185 in other words, people perceive climate change impacts as a threat to plants and animals and people in other parts of the world, but do not see it as a local issue affecting themselves, their family, and their community. to counteract this problem, an effective communicator should highlight the current impacts of climate change on regions within the us. research suggests that it may be more effective to frame climate change with local examples in addition to national examples. for example, references to droughts in the southwest may resonate more with us audiences than talking about droughts in africa. similarly, climate change becomes a more personal threat to a new yorker when hearing how new york city's subway system will suffer as the result of a rise in sea level compared to hearing about the effect of a sea level rise in bangladesh. scientists have found trends in extreme weather events, such as heat waves and flooding, that are consistent with climate change, such as increasing precipitation extremes in some parts of the united states.\\x186 they project that climate change will increase the frequency and/or severity of extreme events, which may in turn cause significant damage to human health and infrastructure. because such extreme weather events are vivid, dramatic, and easily understood, especially to the locals who suffer through them, they provide effective frames
What parameter is local efficiency related to?
the local efficiency (related to closeness centrality
how should the topology observed in climate networks be treated?
the complex topology observed in climate networks should therefore be treated as a manifestation of structure formation, that allows for uncertainties in the choice of parameters such as t
what guides selection r?
the selection of r is in each case guided by the principle of balancing between structural richness and statistical significance
(fig. 3(d)) and at r [?] 0 028 for the corresponding mutual information network (not shown here). at all edge densities considered in sect. 5 the giant component size is of o (1). the influence of the non-giant components on measures such as average path length and closeness centrality is therefore negligible in the regime studied here, since larger deviations are only expected for r r this range of edge densities in turn is not relevant for the conclusions drawn from the comparison presented in sect. 5. to study this regime of very small edge densities in detail, measures more robust to disconnected components such as the local efficiency (related to closeness centrality) and global efficiency (related to average path length) should be considered we chose the definitions given in sect. 3 to maintain consistency with the existing literature on climate networks. 4.3.3 pragmatic choice of t we think that the problem of selecting exactly the right threshold is not as severe as might be thought. climate network analysis deals with topological properties of correlation measure matrices and aims at gaining new insights heeding this paradigm. in the climate system, it is furthermore not immediately evident which physical entities should take the role of vertices and edges in a complex network. this constitutes the main conceptional difference between our method and attempts of recovering an unknown physically existent network structure from vertex dynamics as in the study of the brain [28,29,38-40], where one can argue that a more natural identification of neurons and axons with the vertices and edges of a neural network exists. it is known that in the classical local description of geophysical fluid dynamics of atmosphere and oceans, i.e. the navier-stokes equations combined with thermodynamic equations, the network of physical interaction has the structure of a regular grid in a discretized model, the dynamics at each grid point is only coupled to the grid points in the immediate neighborhood. the complex topology observed in climate networks should therefore be treated as a manifestation of structure formation, that allows for uncertainties in the choice of parameters such as t in the spirit of the ideas elaborated in the above paragraphs, we choose to fix the edge density r when comparing the properties of climate networks generated using different correlation measures. this will result in different thresholds t because the empirical correlation measure distribution p c clearly differs between linear pearson correlation and nonlinear mutual information (fig. 2). the selection of r is in each case guided by the principle of balancing between structural richness and statistical significance outlined above.
Due to the situation presented above, what are the new cultures currently doing?
cultures are adapting to new locations and situations and transforming in ways that weaken older cultural forms and render them less visible
What are the results of large-scale migration?
in niue and the cook islands, for example, large-scale migration has resulted in more islanders living in new zealand than in the islands, yet the cultures of new zealand-based islanders have not been wholly displaced, nor have the cultures of the islands themselves
What happened in Niue and Cook Islands?
in both niue and the cook islands, however, reciprocal exchange has been weakened through diverse and sometimes simple processes such as deep freezers curtailing the distribution of fish among households
while the examples discussed in this chapter illustrate the considerable potential for traditional knowledge to contribute to present-day climate change adaptation strategies in small islands, it should be noted that traditional knowledge in the small island context is in many cases rapidly eroding due to the interruption of intergenerational knowledge transmission. there are a number of contributing factors, including the absence of traditional knowledge in the formal school curriculum; the close integration of island societies with the global economy; internal and external migration from smaller rural societies towards urban settlements and from island countries to larger continental economies; and the relatively easy access to imported food and popular culture. adger et al. (2011: 8) note that: cultures are adapting to new locations and situations and transforming in ways that weaken older cultural forms and render them less visible. in niue and the cook islands, for example, large-scale migration has resulted in more islanders living in new zealand than in the islands, yet the cultures of new zealand-based islanders have not been wholly displaced, nor have the cultures of the islands themselves. in both niue and the cook islands, however, reciprocal exchange has been weakened through diverse and sometimes simple processes such as deep freezers curtailing the distribution of fish among households (which would otherwise be shared for immediate consumption); the dominant use of english... the disinterest of youth in traditional ecological knowledge; and the replacement of many traditional food procurement strategies by supermarkets and local shops. in their discussion on traditional knowledge in rongelap atoll, bridges and mcclatchey (2009) conclude that 'one of the great-unsung losses of recent times has been the widespread abandonment of oral record keeping in the form of chants and songs that are able to codify complex pieces of information and pass this across multiple generations'. resture urges that
What pathways are used to channel influence over future federal policy development?
network participants channel influence through four overlapping pathways: (1) the strategic demonstration of the feasibility of climate change action; (2) the creation and expansion of markets; (3) policy diffusion and learning; and (4) the creation and promulgation of norms about the need for more aggressive climate change action
What are the six components of future federal US climate policy?
1) a national cap on ghg emissions; (2) a national market based cap-and-trade ghg emissions trading scheme; (3) mandatory renewable energy portfolio standards; (4) increased national product standards for energy efficiency; (5) increased vehicle fleet energy efficiency standards; and (6) increased federal incentives for research and development on energy efficiency issues and renewable energy development
What is necessary to enact changes in US foreign policy
this means that significant changes in u.s. foreign policies related climate change are likely only after the enactment of more expansive federal climate change policy
this growth in sub-national and private sector climate change initiatives is driven by a multitude of networked actors who pioneer climate change initiatives ahead of federal requirements. more specifically, network participants channel influence through four overlapping pathways: (1) the strategic demonstration of the feasibility of climate change action; (2) the creation and expansion of markets; (3) policy diffusion and learning; and (4) the creation and promulgation of norms about the need for more aggressive climate change action. combined, these pathways promote both moral and strategic reasons for policy change. to date, the u.s. government has engaged in few efforts to reduce ghg emissions, and national emissions continue to increase. thus, in the short and medium term, expanding sub-national policy and programs are likely to prove more important politically than environmentally significant. by assessing what policy ideas are influencing sub-national and private sector actors in their attempts to address climate change, one can see which of the many available policy options are gaining support in the public and private spheres. those policies currently being enacted, implemented, and assessed by major public and private sector entities have identifiable political constituencies. as such, they are most likely to influence future federal policy development through different combinations of the four pathways of change identified earlier. based on our analysis of policy change below the federal level, we predict that future federal u.s. climate policy will include six major components: (1) a national cap on ghg emissions; (2) a national market based cap-and-trade ghg emissions trading scheme; (3) mandatory renewable energy portfolio standards; (4) increased national product standards for energy efficiency; (5) increased vehicle fleet energy efficiency standards; and (6) increased federal incentives for research and development on energy efficiency issues and renewable energy development. these policies are already being implemented in the public and private sectors, and have identifiable constituencies of well-networked actors. as such, they are likely to be part of future federal policy. conversely, policy ideas with fewer and/or less powerful political advocates are less likely to be included in federal policy. because the united states has often been reluctant to engage in internationally environmental policy making and accept international environmental regulations before corresponding domestic action has been taken (particularly in the context of a highly contentious domestic issue such as climate change), developments in federal climate policy can be expected to induce changes in u.s. foreign policy. this means that significant changes in u.s. foreign policies related climate change are likely only after the enactment of more expansive federal climate change policy. as such, observers and policy makers from both inside and outside the united states would be wise to closely study ongoing and dynamic public, private, and civil society sector climate change developments outside washington d.c., and their influence on national debates and future federal policy making. notes
Where was the meeting?
conservation international in arlington, virginia
who funded it?
landscapes for people, food and nature (lpfn) initiative
who gave the additional funding?
international climate initiative (ici
this article reflects discussions held at an expert meeting on integrating adaptation and mitigation in agricultural systems hosted by conservation international in arlington, virginia in july 2012. partial funding for the workshop and the development of the article was provided by the landscapes for people, food and nature (lpfn) initiative. the workshop and this publication were also made possible by the generous support of the american people through the united states agency for international development (usaid) under the terms of cooperative agreement no. rla-a-00-07-0043. any opinions, findings, conclusions or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of usaid or the united states government. additional funding for ci staff (harvey, donatti, hannah and chacon) was provided by the international climate initiative (ici), of the german federal ministry for the environment, nature conservation and nuclear safety (bmu), as part of the cascade project ("ecosystem-based adaptation for smallholder subsistence and coffee farming communities in central america"). the ccafs contribution was carried out with funding by the european union (eu) and with technical support from the international fund for agricultural development (ifad). we thank areliz claros for help with literature searches, shyla raghav for policy information, natalie bailey for support and andrew rosenberg for encouraging the development of this manuscript.
How can climate-related social instabilities affect epidemiology?
all epidemiological problems associated with modernity, mobility, and resource consumption are exacerbated when climate-related social instabilities are put in motion
How does gradual warming or extreme weather cause the spread of illness?
as people migrate away from areas deteriorated by gradual warming or destroyed by extreme weather events, they not only place substantial demands on the ecosystems and social infrastructures into which they migrate, but also carry illnesses that emerge from shifts in infectious-disease vectors
Where are tropical diseases treated in increasingly warm climates?
care facilities in increasingly warm climates, for instance, currently relegate tropical-disease treatment to specialty (sometimes exclusive and exclusionary) medical facilities
changing patterns of illness for gradual and extreme forms of climate change will have sociopolitical consequences. all epidemiological problems associated with modernity, mobility, and resource consumption are exacerbated when climate-related social instabilities are put in motion. as people migrate away from areas deteriorated by gradual warming or destroyed by extreme weather events, they not only place substantial demands on the ecosystems and social infrastructures into which they migrate, but also carry illnesses that emerge from shifts in infectious-disease vectors. new epidemics are serious issues. care facilities in increasingly warm climates, for instance, currently relegate tropical-disease treatment to specialty (sometimes exclusive and exclusionary) medical facilities. new disease vectors, therefore, are not only a problem for those who suff er, but for professionals educationally or clinically unprepared to respond to them. many hospital facilities in industrialised countries lack experience in
What is an example of an extreme weather event (such as a hurricane and heat waves) that poses a potential risk to infrastructure and human health?
hurricane joaquin, for example, hit carolina in early october 2015, and dropped over 2 feet of precipitation in days, resulted in severe flooding and economic loss
What is an important scientific objective in climate science research?
an important scientific goal in climate science research is to characterize extreme events in current day and future climate projections
All existing extreme weather event detection methods (eg hurricanes) rely on human experience to define relevant events based on the evaluation of relevant spatial and temporal variables at hard and subjective thresholds. What is an example?
tropical cyclones are strong rotating weather systems that are characterized by low pressure and warm temperature core structures with high wind. however, there is no universally accepted sets of criteria for what defines a tropical cyclone the "low" pressure and "warm" temperature are interpreted differently among climate scientists, therefore different thresholds are used to characterize them
extreme climate events (such as hurricanes and heat waves) pose great potential risk on infrastructure and human health. hurricane joaquin, for example, hit carolina in early october 2015, and dropped over 2 feet of precipitation in days, resulted in severe flooding and economic loss. an important scientific goal in climate science research is to characterize extreme events in current day and future climate projections. however, understanding the developing mechanism and life cycle of these events as well as future trend requires accurately identifying them in space and time. satellites acquire 10s of tbs of global data every year to provide us with insights into the evolution of the climate system. high resolution climate models produces 100s of tbs of data from multi-decadal run to enable us to explore future climate scenarios under global warming. detecting extreme climate events in terabytes of data presents an unprecedented challenge for climate science. existing extreme climate events (e.g. hurricane) detection methods all build upon human expertise in defining relevant events based on evaluating of relevant spatial and temporal variables on hard and subjective thresholds. for instance, tropical cyclones are strong rotating weather systems that are characterized by low pressure and warm temperature core structures with high wind. however, there is no universally accepted sets of criteria for what defines a tropical cyclone the "low" pressure and "warm" temperature are interpreted differently among climate scientists, therefore different thresholds are used to characterize them. researchers have developed various algorithms to detect tropical cyclones in large climate dataset based on subjective thresholding of several relevant variables (e.g. sea level pressure, temperature, wind etc.). one of the general and promising extreme climate event detecting software, toolkit for extreme climate analysis (teca) is able to detect tropical cyclones, extra-tropical cyclones and atmospheric rivers. teca utilizes the mapreduce paradigm to find pattern in terabytes of climate data with in hours. however, many other climate extreme events do not have a clear empirical definition (e.g. extra-tropical cyclone and mesoscale convective system), which precludes the development and application of algorithms for detection and tracking. this study attempts to search for an alternative methodology for extreme events detection by designing a neural network based system that is capable of learning a broad class of patterns from complex multi-variable climate data, thus avoiding subjective threshold. recent advances in deep learning have demonstrated exciting and promising results on pattern recognition tasks, such as imagenet large scale visual recognition challenge and speech recognition many of the state-of-art deep learning architectures for visual pattern recognition are based on the hierarchical feature learning convolutional neural network (cnn). modern cnn systems tend to be deep and large with many hidden layers and millions of neurons, making them flexible in learning a broad class of patterns simultaneously from data. alexnet (7
What percentage of emerging diseases are zoonotic diseases?
the incidence of zoonotic diseases, transmitted to humans from wild or domestic animals, has noticeably increased during the past few decades and currently represents 70% or more of emerging diseases
What percentage of Japanese encephalitis cases are lethal?
je infections are lethal in about 25-30% of cases
Where does JEV continue to spread widely?
jev continues to spread widely in south, east, and southeast asia and australasia
the incidence of zoonotic diseases, transmitted to humans from wild or domestic animals, has noticeably increased during the past few decades and currently represents 70% or more of emerging diseases japanese encephalitis virus (jev), an arbovirus of the flavivirus genus, family flaviviridae, is transmitted by mosquitoes from animals to humans. in humans, this zoonotic disease is the largest worldwide cause of epidemic viral encephalitis [2,3]. the pathogenesis of the jev and the clinical manifestations of the disease, including severe neurological syndromes, depend on several factors that have been deeply reviewed elsewhere [4,5]. the incubation period ranges from 5 to 15 days; je infections are lethal in about 25-30% of cases, mostly in infants, and lead to permanent sequelae in about 50% of cases. je was first described in 1871 in japan, and first characterized in 1935 despite an effective vaccine developed in 1941, and the subsequent national immunization campaigns that have greatly reduced the incidence of je in several countries, sporadic cases continue to be reported, and jev continues to spread widely in south, east, and southeast asia and australasia currently, more than three billion people live in je-endemic countries there, though people of all ages may be exposed to jev, the je incidence is higher in children because most adults are immune now, about 68,000 je cases are estimated to occur annually, causing at least 10,000-15,000 deaths in more than 20 australasian countries [8,9].
What does the sign next to each arrow (+ or -) indicates?
indicates whether the relation is positive or negative as classed from interviews and/or available data analysis
In Tswana and Herero households, what is an important source of capital?
in both tswana and herero households, livestock is an important source of capital
In what period has the Botswana Democracy Party (BDP)  ruled ?
the botswana democracy party (bdp), that has ruled botswana since independence in 1966
fig. 2 dynamic systems model of the agropastoral food system of southern botswana. each variable in this model emerged from expert opinions, and the sign next to each arrow (+ or -) indicates whether the relation is positive or negative as classed from interviews and/or available data analysis. dominance despite international campaigns to restore some land and power to indigenous groups. tswana society is itself hierarchical and cattlekeeping is culturally important. strong community structures exist through tribal chiefs and elders who make up village courts kgotla ). the power of traditional community systems has declined as greater influence is felt from national and districtlevel government structures, dominated by the main tswana political party, i.e., the botswana democracy party (bdp), that has ruled botswana since independence in 1966. in both tswana and herero households, livestock is an important source of capital, being saved for key events such as weddings, funerals, and paying school fees, as well as having value from milk and meat in the food system. it is normal that the majority of households own some animals, even if this is only a small number of sheep or goats. indeed, recent
Describe about International Energy Agency?
the international energy agency indicates that at least usd 5 trillion additional investment is required to 2020 in the energy sector only, to limit warming to two degrees celsius (iea, 2013
who are the inventories have gained international recognition?
hese inventories have gained international recognition as the most comprehensive overviews of global climate finance, and are a cornerstone of cpi's ongoing efforts to analyze the relationship between public policy and resources, and private investment. this year's report aims to provide public policymakers,1 in particular, with more tangible insights into the levers that could stimulate the transition towards a lowcarbon, climate-resilient future landsca
what are the group includes in Development Finance?
the group includes development finance institutions (dfis), government bodies and un organizations, climate funds, utilities and independent power producers, households, and institutional investors. based on this analysis, and early lessons and examples from related cpi work, landscape 2013 identifies five entry points for public money, ranging from direct investments in low-carbon, climate-resilient projects, active shareholding, and provision of financial incentives, to covering relevant risks
in may 2013, the world crossed a symbolic threshold when observed concentrations of the main atmosphere-warming greenhouse gas, co2, exceeded 400 parts per million for the first time. the international energy agency indicates that at least usd 5 trillion additional investment is required to 2020 in the energy sector only, to limit warming to two degrees celsius (iea, 2013). understanding where the world stands in relation to its low-carbon and climate-resilient investment goals is a more urgent task than ever. the landscape of climate finance 2013 (landscape 2013) report is the third edition of climate policy initiative's (cpi) annual inventory of the climate finance that is flowing in, to, and between countries each year. these inventories have gained international recognition as the most comprehensive overviews of global climate finance, and are a cornerstone of cpi's ongoing efforts to analyze the relationship between public policy and resources, and private investment. this year's report aims to provide public policymakers,1 in particular, with more tangible insights into the levers that could stimulate the transition towards a lowcarbon, climate-resilient future landscape 2013 therefore zooms in on a narrow group of public and private actors that have emerged as cornerstone players, either for their role in mobilizing private finance, or as potential sources of additional investment. the group includes development finance institutions (dfis), government bodies and un organizations, climate funds, utilities and independent power producers, households, and institutional investors. based on this analysis, and early lessons and examples from related cpi work, landscape 2013 identifies five entry points for public money, ranging from direct investments in low-carbon, climate-resilient projects, active shareholding, and provision of financial incentives, to covering relevant risks, or
What are global ' common ' scenarios?
global ' common ' scenarios (i.e. scenarios that are being developed to serve research needs across the relevant disciplines involved
When did a new set of global ' common ' scenarios start to develop?
in 2006, a process was started to develop a new set of global ' common ' scenarios
Why are community scenarios important?
having access to community scenarios allow these researchers to focus on those areas where their research adds value
they offer a valuable resource for researchers that are not able to, or prefer not to, generate scenarios themselves. for instance, not all researchers are interested in developing their own consistent description of future changes in demographics, economic development, changes in energy systems, land use and descriptions of social, cultural and institutional changes and policies, but might require such information for their analyses. having access to community scenarios allow these researchers to focus on those areas where their research adds value. in 2006, a process was started to develop a new set of global ' common ' scenarios (i.e. scenarios that are being developed to serve research needs across the relevant disciplines involved). the new
What is the most appropriate scenario method?
the over-riding imperative is that the most appropriate scenario method is matched to the intended application
What does the suppliers and users of climate risk information need to do?
the suppliers and users of climate risk information need to be closely aligned from outset
What does this final section offers?
this final section offers suggestions for improving the technical base for the production and uptake of climate risk information for the 2020s
likewise, weather generators are already in relatively widespread use for crop-yield and water resource modelling. under these circumstances, it is advisable to build on existing knowledge and capabilities. however, the over-riding imperative is that the most appropriate scenario method is matched to the intended application (section 3). for example, sensitivity analysis or change factors for macro-economic analysis; climate analogues or empirical downscaling for the design of communitybased livelihoods programmes; dynamical downscaling for communicating with stakeholders and national policy-making across multiple sectors; pattern-scaling or weather generators for natural resource assessment; and coupled oa/gcms for international advocacy. regardless of the intended application and choice of method, consideration should be given to how the scenarios will enable stakeholders and managers to make more informed, robust decisions on adaptation in the face of deep uncertainty. this means that the suppliers and users of climate risk information need to be closely aligned from outset. it also makes sense to demonstrate the valueadded (if any) when more sophisticated scenario methods are applied - underlining the merit of benchmarking against simpler procedures whenever time and resources permit. 10. future opportunities to improve the science and information this final section offers suggestions for improving the technical base for the production and uptake of climate risk information for the 2020s. the options are grouped into three themes: (i) basic science, (ii) uncertainty and (iii) decision support.
What is the linear remapping scheme of Lipscomb used for?
the linear remapping scheme of lipscomb (2001) is used to transport ice between neighboring categories as it grows and melts
What happens when the heat flux from the ocean hits the sea ice?
the sea ice receives from the ocean a potential heat flux for freezing or melting ice. when this potential is positive, frazil ice grows in open water and then is merged with the ice in the thinnest category
What does the force balance of the sea ice momentum equation following Hunke and Dukowicz include?
he force balance includes wind stress, ocean stress, internal ice stress, the coriolis force, and a stress associated with sea surface tilt
the linear remapping scheme of lipscomb (2001) is used to transport ice between neighboring categories as it grows and melts. each category has a fractional area a which is unchanged by vertical thermodynamic processes, and a thickness h which does change. thermodynamic growth and melting can be thought of as a lagrangian motion of ice categories in thickness space, during which the area (but not volume) of ice in each category is conserved. linear remapping is less diffusive than the simpler scheme of hibler (1980), which fixes the ice thickness in each category. the sea ice receives from the ocean a potential heat flux for freezing or melting ice. when this potential is positive, frazil ice grows in open water and then is merged with the ice in the thinnest category. when the potential is negative, heat is available to the ice and is partitioned between basal and lateral heat exchange. the exchange results in a lateral melt rate which depends on the ice-ocean temperature difference and a prescribed mean floe diameter following steele (1992). the basal ocean heat exchange is balanced by the conductive heat flux at the ice base and the latent heat exchange that results from basal ice melt or growth. velocities are computed from the sea ice momentum equation following hunke and dukowicz (1997), as updated by hunke (2001) and hunke and dukowicz (2002). the force balance includes wind stress, ocean stress, internal ice stress, the coriolis force, and a stress associated with sea surface tilt. the internal ice stress is derived from the elastic-viscous-plastic (evp) rheology, a generalization of the viscous-plastic (vp) rheology of hibler (1979). the ice flows plastically under typical stresses but is treated as a viscous fluid when strain rates are small and the ice is nearly rigid. an elastic term is added to improve the response to high-frequency forcing and to
What is the main characteristics of the regional energy market?
one of the main characteristics of the regional energy market had long been the monopoly of bewag and gasag in all business areas
Why in many cases political initiatives for ecological modernization failed?
in many cases political initiatives for ecological modernization failed because of the economic interests of the utilities and their limited governability by the regional supervisory authorities
What become indispensable promoters of industrial transformation and an ambitious climate policy?
ecopreneurs' (schaper 2002) have become indispensable promoters of industrial transformation and an ambitious climate policy
one of the main characteristics of the regional energy market had long been the monopoly of bewag and gasag in all business areas. thus, the success of regional environmental policies in the energy sector was primarily dependent on the compliance and intrinsic motivation of these two monopolists. the problem was that they showed considerable inertia in opening up new markets for energy efficiency services, for the decentralized generation of electricity and heating, and for environmental technologies. in many cases political initiatives for ecological modernization failed because of the economic interests of the utilities and their limited governability by the regional supervisory authorities. due to the innovational lethargy of the regional utilities and the inefficiency of the traditional regulatory system, environmental policy in berlin has increasingly focused on the promotion of innovative smes specializing in the production and use of environmental technologies, in the ecological supply of electricity and heating, and in environmental services. these 'ecopreneurs' (schaper 2002) have become indispensable promoters of industrial transformation and an ambitious climate policy. initially, the public promotion of green energy markets consisted of r&d programmes, loan/funding schemes and job creation schemes. in the course of the budget crisis this public funding was drastically cut down. however, thanks not only to the climate policy reforms at the national and european level
Where are the tipping points from?
quantitative estimates
What are the two important features novel to climate-economy modeling?
the potential welfare loss, and the optimal policy response to both the possibility of a tipping point and the crossing of a tipping point
What drives future warming?
these characteristics include the stock of capital and also the stock of carbon dioxide that will drive future warming
yet by assuming that the climate system evolves smoothly, these models have been unable to connect tipping point concerns to policy. indeed, the u.s. government working group's report notes that the threat of thresholds is probably a crucial factor for policy, but existing models' limitations nonetheless excluded tipping points from the quantitative estimates (greenstone, kopits and wolverton, 2011). we address this policy need by integrating the possibility of climate tipping points into a benchmark integrated assessment model. for a fully integrated assessment of tipping points, we have to account for two important features novel to climate-economy modeling. these features ensure that we capture the full interaction between an abrupt shift in climate dynamics, the potential welfare loss, and the optimal policy response to both the possibility of a tipping point and the crossing of a tipping point. first, our tipping points directly shift the climate system.1earlier work implemented tipping points as an exogenous loss of welfare or output. this exogenous loss is difficult to calibrate, making it hard to provide a good quantitative estimate of the effect of tipping points. in contrast, we endogenize the welfare loss from tipping into a new climate regime. this endogenous welfare loss reflects that today's optimal policy should anticipate the future policy response to an irreversible shift in the climate system. the welfare loss depends on the difference between welfare preand post-tipping, both of which depend on the current state of the economy and the climate. the optimal policy determines not only the probability of tipping but also the economic consequences of tipping, via the characteristics of the system at every given point in time. these characteristics include the stock of capital and also the stock of carbon dioxide that will drive future warming.
Give the example sentence of vulnerability in first definition ?
small fish are vulnerable to predators
What is the example sentence formalised in this model ?
the lotka-volterra predator-prey model
the latest edition of the oxford dictionary of english gives the following definition of "vulnerable" [13, p. 1977]: 1. exposed to the possibility of being attacked or harmed, either physically or emotionally, 3 2. bridge (of a partnership): liable to higher penalties, either by convention or through having won one game towards a rubber. the oxford dictionary of english provides the following example sentence with the first definition: "small fish are vulnerable to predators". it follows from the definitions and the example sentence that vulnerability is a relative property: it is vulnerability to something. in addition, both the definitions and the example sentence make it clear that vulnerability has a negative connotation and therefore presupposes a notion of "bad" and "good", or at least "worse" and "better". it also follows that vulnerability refers to a potential event (of, for example, being harmed), and not to the realisation of this event. the example sentence has been formalised as the lotka-volterra predator-prey model [14, 15]. we interpret the statement as expressing a relation between a system of small fish exposed to predators. the system of small fish has no endogenous controls: it does not incorporate feedbacks that would represent the lessons learnt by small fish from earlier encounters with predators. it is therefore less complex than systems studied in relation to climate change, where emphasis is placed on the possibilities of adaptation beyond simple reaction, which systems either have or can develop.
When was westerly wind seen in United Kingdom?
32 september 2013 simulated slp response implies enhanced westerly winds to the southwest of the united kingdom
What is the differences between both winds?
differences between the simulated responses and observed anomalies--in terms of both spatial patterns and the much weaker magnitude of the simulated anomalies--require some explanation. the simplest explanation would be internal variability. however, the fact that 2012 is only the latest in a series of negative snao european summers makes this possibility unlikely. furthermore, the level of internal variability in the model simulations is insufficient to account, with significant likelihood, for the magnitude of the observed anomalies (not shown
s32 september 2013 simulated slp response implies enhanced westerly winds to the southwest of the united kingdom, but the response is weaker than the observed anomalies and is displaced northwards. overall, the model results suggest that the atmospheric circulation over the north atlantic and european region in summer 2012 (negative phase of the snao), which was largely responsible for the observed extreme anomalies in european precipitation, was influenced by global sst and sea ice extent anomalies, and that it is likely that sst anomalies in the north atlantic played a particularly important role (consistent with dong et al. 2013, manuscript submitted to environ. res. lett. sutton and hodson 2005). differences between the simulated responses and observed anomalies--in terms of both spatial patterns and the much weaker magnitude of the simulated anomalies--require some explanation. the simplest explanation would be internal variability. however, the fact that 2012 is only the latest in a series of negative snao european summers makes this possibility unlikely. furthermore, the level of internal variability in the model simulations is insufficient to account, with significant likelihood, for the magnitude of the observed anomalies (not shown). other possible factors include an important role for coupled ocean-atmosphere interactions in shaping the response (sutton and mathieu 2002; dong et al. 2013, manuscript submitted to environ. res. lett. and the direct impact of changes in radiative forcings from greenhouse gases and aerosols, which were not considered in the experiments discussed here. model biases may also be a factor. investigating these possibilities is the subject of ongoing research. conclusions. the european summer of 2012 was marked by strongly contrasting rainfall anomalies, which led to flooding in northern europe and droughts and wildfires in southern europe. this season was not an isolated event, rather the latest in a string of summers characterized by a southward shifted atlantic storm track as described by the negative phase of the snao. the degree of decadal variability in these features suggests a role for forcing from outside the dynamical atmosphere, and preliminary numerical experiments suggest that the global sst and low arctic sea ice extent anomalies are likely to have played a role and that warm north atlantic ssts were a particular contributing factor. the direct effects of changes in radiative forcing from greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing are not included in these experiments, but both anthropogenic forcing and natural variability may have influenced the sst and sea ice changes.
What is the focus of attachment theory?
attachment theory, for example, focuses specifically on interpersonal relationship quality as the main determinant of student development and is most relevant during the early years of schooling when nascent relationship patterns are forming
Which theories include safety as an important feature of school climate?
social control and social cognitive theories emphasize relationship quality as well, but also include safety and academic indicators as important features of school climate
What is one consideration to keep in mind when selecting a theory of focus for school climate research?
selection of a theory to justify the focus of the school climate research, therefore, depends upon the particular research questions of interest, the environmental contexts assessed, the outcomes of interest, and the sample under consideration
while all six developmental theories stress the importance of developing strong social bonds between teachers and students, they each offer a unique perspective on which features of school climate, and which developmental periods, are most crucial for intervention. attachment theory, for example, focuses specifically on interpersonal relationship quality as the main determinant of student development and is most relevant during the early years of schooling when nascent relationship patterns are forming. social control and social cognitive theories emphasize relationship quality as well, but also include safety and academic indicators as important features of school climate. social control and social cognitive theories are also more pertinent in adolescence than in early childhood. delinquent behaviors and metacognitive strategies, outcomes of importance for both of these frameworks, not only tend to increase in adolescence but also become more susceptible to peer influences as children age. bio-ecological, risk and resilience, and stage-environment fit theories are broader, which allow researchers to factor in multiple dimensions of school climate as important predictors of student outcomes. these frameworks are also not specific to any particular developmental period, with the exception of stage-environment fit, which is often used to explain difficulties that arise when students transition from elementary school to the more rigid structures of secondary schools. selection of a theory to justify the focus of the school climate research, therefore, depends upon the particular research questions of interest, the environmental contexts assessed, the outcomes of interest, and the sample under consideration.
What has increased in the kilimanjaro forest?
com/env/epoc/dcd/dac(2003)5/final 46 46 national park elephant migration from the amboseli national park through the so-called "kitendeni corridor" into the forests of kilimanjaro has increased
Compared to the amboseli basin, why did more elephant heard stay inside Kilimanjaro's forest?
in addition, more elephant herds stay permanently inside kilimanjaro's forests given the better conditions compared with the amboseli basin
What did the underground survey of the forest on the northern and the western slopes of Kilimanjaro reveal?
a ground survey of the forests on the western and northern slopes of kilimanjaro reveals that in a ground survey of the forests on the western and northern slopes of kilimanjaro reveals that in most places elephants and buffaloes are abundant. besides former logging activities (the last sawmills inside the indigenous forest were closed in the 1970's) grazing patterns of big game cause a change in the dense forest cover towards a mosaic of openings and patches of closed canopies. if the openings become larger, forest regeneration is impeded. in the long term, this development will destroy the forest and change it into a bush land with scattered trees with all the known disadvantages
com/env/epoc/dcd/dac(2003)5/final 46 46 national park elephant migration from the amboseli national park through the so-called "kitendeni corridor" into the forests of kilimanjaro has increased. in addition, more elephant herds stay permanently inside kilimanjaro's forests given the better conditions compared with the amboseli basin. a ground survey of the forests on the western and northern slopes of kilimanjaro reveals that in a ground survey of the forests on the western and northern slopes of kilimanjaro reveals that in most places elephants and buffaloes are abundant. besides former logging activities (the last sawmills inside the indigenous forest were closed in the 1970's) grazing patterns of big game cause a change in the dense forest cover towards a mosaic of openings and patches of closed canopies. if the openings become larger, forest regeneration is impeded. in the long term, this development will destroy the forest and change it into a bush land with scattered trees with all the known disadvantages. 7.7 scenarios for 2020 with respect to fire impact assuming that the observed trends in fire frequency continue in a linear mode the following assuming that the observed trends in fire frequency continue in a linear mode the following scenarios are probable. regarding the upper forest line, most of the remaining subalpine erica forests will have disappeared within five years. as a result, mt. kilimanjaro will have lost its most effective water catchment area. compared with the situation of 2000, this means an annual loss of 16.2 million m3 fog water. subsequently, the upper forest line will retreat more slowly because on the one side mostly broadleaved forests remain, which are to a much lesser degree inflammable and because on the other the lower areas receive an increasing amount of precipitation. nevertheless, an average retreat of the upper forest line of about 100 m in altitude seems to be probable by 2020, when the glaciers will have melted. forest regeneration will completely be inhibited and regressive succession will prevail, as illustrated in figure 15, substituting increasing areas of erica heathland with low layered helichrysum cushion vegetation.
What the comparative risk assessment approach further requires?
the comparative risk assessment approach further requires the exposure measurement to be linked to a quantitative climate-health relationship (e.g., the change in disease rates per unit change in the climatic variable), for example, the increase in diarrhea incidence in a country (or subpopulation) per year for each degree centigrade increase in average ambient temperature
What is the disease burden attributable for?
the disease burden attributable to climate change is then estimated by multiplying this relative risk by the total burden of disease that would have been expected to occur in the absence of climate change
What can cause affect the vulnerability of populations to the effects of climate change?
changing socioeconomic conditions and physiologic and behavioral adaptations will also affect the vulnerability of populations to the effects of climate change
the comparative risk assessment approach further requires the exposure measurement to be linked to a quantitative climate-health relationship (e.g., the change in disease rates per unit change in the climatic variable), for example, the increase in diarrhea incidence in a country (or subpopulation) per year for each degree centigrade increase in average ambient temperature. this enables the calculation of a relative risk (i.e., proportional change) for the health outcomes under each of the various future climate scenarios. the disease burden attributable to climate change is then estimated by multiplying this relative risk by the total burden of disease that would have been expected to occur in the absence of climate change. to make inferences about current and future disease burdens, it is also necessary to account for the current and future influences of nonclimatic factors such as socioeconomic development. nonclimatic effects can be partly addressed by calculating relative risk estimates separately for populations with clearly different baseline disease burdens and vulnerabilities, for example, the 14 who subregions in the global assessment or the specific cities and subpopulations considered in the oceania assessment. where possible, future relative risks should be applied to projections of disease burden that also account for changes in nonclimatic influences over time, such as expected decreases in diarrhea rates as water and sanitation services, ideally, become more widespread in the future (e.g., murray and lopez 1997). finally, changing socioeconomic conditions and physiologic and behavioral adaptations will also affect the vulnerability of populations to the effects of climate change (mcmichael and githeko 2001; woodward et al. 1998), that is, the relative risk as well as the baseline rate. both global and national assessments made such adjustments to relative risks of the various outcomes, for example, taking into account projected increases in the proportion of the population that is elderly and therefore particularly susceptible to extreme temperatures, in oceania, and projected improvements in water and sanitation infrastructure in poor populations, decreasing the climate sensitivity of diarrheal disease, in the global assessment. the concepts of avoidable and attributable disease burdens under alternative climate change scenarios are illustrated graphically in figure 1.
What climatologists need to understand in order to estimate future climate?
in order to estimate future climate, climatologists need to understand how much ghgs emissions will be generated, and this information is provided by models and scenarios of socioeconomic growth
What dynamic model allows us?
using a dynamic model allows us to investigate the increasing influence of climate change on the global economic growth
How understanding climate change will influence the global economy?
understanding how climate change will influence the global economy is obviously very important. this allows assessing the intrinsic autoadjustment system capability, identifying income and wealth distribution effects and verifying the robustness of socio-economic scenarios
therefore, in order to estimate future climate, climatologists need to understand how much ghgs emissions will be generated, and this information is provided by models and scenarios of socioeconomic growth. the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc), for instance, provides a number of alternative socio-economic scenarios (so-called "sres" scenarios), which are typically used to create input data for gcm models, forecasting future climate (nakicenovic and swart, 2000). very little is known, however, about the reverse causation, by which climate change would affect economic growth, both quantitatively and qualitatively. understanding how climate change will influence the global economy is obviously very important. this allows assessing the intrinsic autoadjustment system capability, identifying income and wealth distribution effects and verifying the robustness of socio-economic scenarios. unfortunately, the issue is very complex, because there are many diverse economic impacts of climate change, operating at various levels. some previous studies (berritella et al., 2006; bosello et al., 2006; bosello et al., 2007; bosello and zhang, 2006) have used computable general equilibrium models to assess sectoral impacts, using a comparative static approach. this paper builds upon these studies, but innovates by considering many climate change impacts simultaneously and, most importantly, by considering dynamic impacts in a specially designed dynamic cge model of the world economy (ices). using a dynamic model allows us to investigate the increasing influence of climate change on the global economic growth. this influence is twofold: on one hand, the magnitude of physical and economic impacts will rise over time and, on the other hand, endogenous growth dynamics is affected by changes in income levels, savings, actual and expected returns on capital. we typically find that climate change is associated with significant distributional effects, for a number of reasons. first, not all impacts of climate change are negative. for example, milder climate attracts tourists in some regions, reduced need for warming in winter times saves energy, incidence of cold-related diseases is diminished, etc. second, changes in relative competitiveness and terms of trade may allow some regions and industries to benefit, even from a globally negative shock. third, higher (relative) returns on capital, possibly due to changes in demand structure and resource endowments, could foster investments and growth. all these effects can hardly be captured by a stylized macroeconomic model, and require instead a disaggregated model with explicit representation of trade links between industries and regions. the paper is organised as follows. section 2 presents the ices model structure and explains how a baseline scenario is built. climate change impacts are analysed in section 3. section 4 illustrates the
What types of particles flow into the reactor ?
influent substrate so (influent bod5 or cod) represents the total bod5 (soluble bod particulate bod) or total cod (soluble cod particulate cod) influent to the biological reactor
In primary sedimentation systems, are suspended solids removed at this stage?
even in systems with primary sedimentation, around 1/3 of the suspended solids are not removed in this stage and enter the biological reactor
What happens in the reactor with the 1/3 suspended solids not removed ?
in the reactor, suspended solids are adsorbed by the biomass and are converted into soluble solids by hydrolysis mechanisms, after which they undergo the conversion reactions. therefore, in the influent to the reactor, the soluble substrate as well as the particulate substrate must be computed as the influent substrate to be removed
influent substrate so (influent bod5 or cod) represents the total bod5 (soluble bod particulate bod) or total cod (soluble cod particulate cod) influent to the biological reactor. even in systems with primary sedimentation, around 1/3 of the suspended solids are not removed in this stage and enter the biological reactor. in the reactor, suspended solids are adsorbed by the biomass and are converted into soluble solids by hydrolysis mechanisms, after which they undergo the conversion reactions. therefore, in the influent to the reactor, the soluble substrate as well as the particulate substrate must be computed as the influent substrate to be removed.
When was the first passenger railway built?
the first passenger railway was built in 1832 and by 1844 ' railway mania ' had set in
By 1850, how many miles of railway lines were built?
by 1850, around 6000 miles of railway lines had been built
What caused an estimated minimum of 240 billion euro in lost business, damages and insurance payouts?
the protests in greece in 2009 cost the slowing economy an estimated minimum of 240 billion euro in lost business, damages and insurance payouts
colin challen, the crusading low-carbon mp, points out that the railway transformation in britain occurred is a similarly short period. the first passenger railway was built in 1832 and by 1844 ' railway mania ' had set in. by then there were 240 proposals for new lines before parliament, worth around ps 100 million at a time when the uk gdp was worth around that mark per annum. by 1850, around 6000 miles of railway lines had been built. as we have seen today the money can be found if necessary, for instance to bail out the creaking twentieth century car industry with billions of dollars and pounds in loans, on which there are no guarantees that they will ever be paid back if the companies ultimately fail. while such sums are speedily invested in often obsolete business structures, products and industries, why is strategic new money not being found to invest in future-proofing the ordinary family against climate change? in the process of making every building low energy and low impact, strong local industries and communities would also be developed. the cost of investing in energy efficiency and renewables is often not realistically costed by pundits. for instance, energy generated by photovoltaics (pvs) is typically compared to the cost of baseload energy supplies from coal and nuclear plants (see p. 298), whereas in urban contexts pv electricity typically displaces peak air conditioning loads in commercial buildings. pvs can be effectively used to reduce increasingly unaffordable summer cooling peak loads. wind energy effectively displaces winter evening peak loads. costed into the benefits of future-proofing citizens should be the added value of building the low-carbon economy. the pv market has been growing at an average of over 40% per annum for the last five years. how much more sensible to invest in this sector than in manufacturing capacity producing environmentally disastrous sports utility vehicles (suvs)? yet it is the suv/car industry that gets the enormous injections of government cash to prop up its failed models. in the first and second world wars car factories were turned into tank and munitions factories almost overnight. the same could happen again in the dying towns of the rust belt of north america, which could be turned over to producing wind turbines and wave power generators and ensure themselves a viable future. reinforcing locally economies has huge benefits in terms of paying for the improvement in housing stock and related health, thus resulting in savings on health bills. finally, one cost that is not factored in to estimates of such investments is the social cost. the protests in greece in 2009 cost the slowing economy an estimated minimum of 240 billion euro in lost business, damages and insurance payouts. the two weeks of violence saw around 600 shops and more homes destroyed, hurt consumer sentiment and damaged tourism, which represents nearly
How were farmers prompted to analyze the results of their evaluations as a group?
farmers were prompted to analyze the results of their evaluations as a group by addressing the following questions: how to obtain more happy faces (i.e., the optimal condition) in the landscape, farmer management, and soil quality categories? how to maintain the happy faces (i.e., optimal condition) that you already have in the landscape, farmer management, and soil quality categories
What did Zaragoza farmers observe?
at the scale of the farmers ' landscape, zaragoza farmers observed that vegetated borders and perennial vegetation with multiple uses mitigated exposure to extreme climatic events
What did Coxcaltepec farmers recognize?
similarly, coxcaltepec farmers recognized that heterogeneous and forested landscapes protected fields, bringing rain, retaining groundwater, accumulating soil organic matter, and controlling insect pests
farmers were prompted to analyze the results of their evaluations as a group by addressing the following questions: how to obtain more happy faces (i.e., the optimal condition) in the landscape, farmer management, and soil quality categories? how to maintain the happy faces (i.e., optimal condition) that you already have in the landscape, farmer management, and soil quality categories? at the scale of the farmers ' landscape, zaragoza farmers observed that vegetated borders and perennial vegetation with multiple uses mitigated exposure to extreme climatic events. similarly, coxcaltepec farmers recognized that heterogeneous and forested landscapes protected fields, bringing rain, retaining groundwater, accumulating soil organic matter, and controlling insect pests. el rosario participants described that contour ditches capture soil and water, and that a slight slope to the contour ditches avoids flooding and breaching during heavy rainfall events. indicators of farmer management at the field-scale included the importance of crop genetic and species diversity for stabilizing overall yields given the variation in crop performance from year to year. the indicator of " soil amendments " was derived from farmer testimonies that synthetic fertilizer only improved crop yields with favorable rainfall; in drought years, synthetic fertilizer was ineffective and " even burned crops. " coxcaltepec participants recommended substituting synthetic fertilizers with various locally derived soil amendments, including animal manures, worm castings, forest humus, and human urine. soil quality was also described by farmers to affect the impact of climatic variability on agroecosystems. the three communities associated soil moisture retention with soil texture and depth. generally, clayey soils were described as the most productive in drought years, but also difficult to cultivate in wet years. in contrast, farmers described sandy soils as the easiest to cultivate in wet years but also the least productive. farmers considered deep soils, measured by how far the egyptian plow entered the soil, are considered by farmers to be the most productive soils in both wet and dry years. the resiliency evaluations conducted so far by the reda gres group suggest that agroecological strategies that
Define about Economic research?
economic research that opposes the strategy of strong and urgent reductions in greenhouse gas emissions often makes the observation, misleadingly, that while scientists, environmentalists, politicians and others would favour strong action, economists would not
Why economic literature on climate change has failed?
much of the previous economic literature on climate change has failed to grasp the necessary scale and timing of action because it has failed to simultaneously assign the necessary importance to issues of risk and ethics
How the Review is based?
the case for strong and urgent action set out in the review is based, first, on the severe risks that the science now identifies and, second, on the ethics of the responsibility of current generations for future generations. it is these two issuesrisk and ethics --that are crucial
economic research that opposes the strategy of strong and urgent reductions in greenhouse gas emissions often makes the observation, misleadingly, that while scientists, environmentalists, politicians and others would favour strong action, economists would not. drawing on the stern review on the economics of climate change, this paper argues that strong and urgent action is in fact good economics. much of the previous economic literature on climate change has failed to grasp the necessary scale and timing of action because it has failed to simultaneously assign the necessary importance to issues of risk and ethics. the case for strong and urgent action set out in the review is based, first, on the severe risks that the science now identifies and, second, on the ethics of the responsibility of current generations for future generations. it is these two issuesrisk and ethics --that are crucial.
what are R's factors
rs is an integrated result of respiration associated with root activities (autotrophic respiration, ra) and with soil organic matter (som) decomposition (heterotrophic respiration, rh
why are R's measurements not suffcient
because of the high labor cost and methodological limitations for partitioning rs, fewer warming experiments have monitored the dynamics of ra and rh, compared to the frequently measured rs
average global surface temperature is likely to rise 1.5-2  c by the end of the century (ipcc, 2013). elevated temperature could greatly alter soil respiration rs), the largest flux of carbon dioxide (co2) from terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere. however, despite decades of research, no consensus has been reached on how the response of rs to climate warming will affect the global carbon balance, which brings great uncertainty in projecting the feedback between rs and future climate changes (bond-lamberty thomson, 2010; janssens et al. 2010). one of the main challenges to assessing the future role of rs in the global carbon cycle is that the response of rs to warming has a high spatial heterogeneity (schleser, 1982; raich schlesinger, 1992; bond-lamberty thomson, 2010). over the last several decades, ecosystem warming experiments have rapidly expanded across almost all terrestrial biomes. a systematic examination of extant rs measurements from those experiments could provide important insights into global rs patterns under a warming climate. besides the high spatial heterogeneity of rs, we also do not know enough about how the complex soil processes regulate soil co2 fluxes. rs is an integrated result of respiration associated with root activities (autotrophic respiration, ra) and with soil organic matter (som) decomposition (heterotrophic respiration, rh). without separation of ra and rh, rs measurements alone provide little insight in som cycling and are insufficient to evaluate its response to future climate warming (kuzyakov larionova, 2005). because of the high labor cost and methodological limitations for partitioning rs, fewer warming experiments have monitored the dynamics of ra and rh, compared to the frequently measured rs. however, with the importance of measuring ra and rh being increasingly recognized, more warming experiments have started to measure ra and
What does social learning theory posits?
returning to the individual level of analysis, social learning theory posits that individuals model learned responses on their interpretations of salient and rewarded work approaches and behaviors (bandura, 1986
What does psychological climate signals
psychological climate signals the desired, emphasized, and expected achievement orientation and motivates individuals to adopt the ascribed achievement goal by clarifying behavior-outcome contingencies and the valued approach to securing rewards (kopelman, brief, guzzo, 1990
What does psychological climate affords?
in this way, psychological climate affords an informational benefit to group members, which in turn motivates group members to adapt accordingly
returning to the individual level of analysis, social learning theory posits that individuals model learned responses on their interpretations of salient and rewarded work approaches and behaviors (bandura, 1986). psychological climate signals the desired, emphasized, and expected achievement orientation and motivates individuals to adopt the ascribed achievement goal by clarifying behavior-outcome contingencies and the valued approach to securing rewards (kopelman, brief, guzzo, 1990). in this way, psychological climate affords an informational benefit to group members, which in turn motivates group members to adapt accordingly. goal orientation scholars contend that state goal orientations are cued by perceptions central to group members' psychological climate--perceptions of task characteristics, the nature of social
How was the simulations evaluated
the multi-model transient ensemble statistics were compared with the relevant ptrs and the transient fitted statistics to evaluate whether simulations were accurately representing the temporal changes in the ptrs
What was the first result
first, statistics of the transient simulations were evaluated for each rcm, ensemble member, year in the transient series and calendar month. the 10th, 25th, 75th and 90th percentiles across each ensemble were then evaluated for each case of rcm, statistic, transient year and month
What result was obtained from the Figure 9
figure 9 shows the time series of these percentiles compared with the corresponding ptrs for arpege_h for january and july, which represent one of the best and one of the worst monthly fits to the ptrs. the skewness coefficient and monthly variance cannot be compared with the ptrs in the manner used in figure 9, and are therefore excluded, as the former is biased by sample size and the latter cannot be estimated from a single month's data. figure 9 shows that the percentiles estimated from the 100-member ensembles are highly variable as expected for a single year's data. in most cases the quartiles also indicate considerable variability when compared with the fitting and simulation biases; for example the magnitude of the bias-correction of the daily mean and the pdd statistics is relatively minor compared to the stochastic variability in the ensemble simulation
the multi-model transient ensemble statistics were compared with the relevant ptrs and the transient fitted statistics to evaluate whether simulations were accurately representing the temporal changes in the ptrs. first, statistics of the transient simulations were evaluated for each rcm, ensemble member, year in the transient series and calendar month. the 10th, 25th, 75th and 90th percentiles across each ensemble were then evaluated for each case of rcm, statistic, transient year and month. figure 9 shows the time series of these percentiles compared with the corresponding ptrs for arpege_h for january and july, which represent one of the best and one of the worst monthly fits to the ptrs. the skewness coefficient and monthly variance cannot be compared with the ptrs in the manner used in figure 9, and are therefore excluded, as the former is biased by sample size and the latter cannot be estimated from a single month's data. figure 9 shows that the percentiles estimated from the 100-member ensembles are highly variable as expected for a single year's data. in most cases the quartiles also indicate considerable variability when compared with the fitting and simulation biases; for example the magnitude of the bias-correction of the daily mean and the pdd statistics is relatively minor compared to the stochastic variability in the ensemble simulation. for most cases the 16
Climate change was understood by which factor?
the effect of co2 concentrations on global average temperatures is one of the best understood relationships in climate change science
Whether models agree with another?
the more spatial averaging is applied, the more the models agree with one another
Who found the spatial models?
masson and knutti show that the models' ability to reproduce past observations has a similar dependence on spatial scale
the effect of co2 concentrations on global average temperatures is one of the best understood relationships in climate change science. in a hierarchy of increasing uncertainties, climate sensitivity and global mean temperatures are somewhere near the top. however, if we shift our attention to smaller spatial scales, impacts that are localized in time, and less well understood climate variables (e.g., precipitation), uncertainties explode. masson and knutti (2011) have analyzed the dependence of uncertainty in climate predictions on spatial scale. their results (see figure 3) show how disagreement between models grows with reductions in spatial scale for both temperature (left panel) and precipitation (right panel). the parameter l (on the horizontal axis) indicates the scale at which the data from models are averaged--the higher the value of l the more the fine spatial detail in the models is lost, and the more the model predictions at each geographic location look like spatial averages over regions of size l the more spatial averaging is applied, the more the models agree with one another. masson and knutti show that the models' ability to reproduce past observations has a similar dependence on spatial scale. these results concern only predictions of climate variables themselves. if one continues down the ladder of uncertainty to specific localized predictions of variables that directly affect economic and natural systems (e.g., water availability, growing conditions, sea level rise, and extreme events), matters get even more vague. this suggests that when considering various climate policy options, whether they be mitigation or adaptation, uncertainty and its management are going to be major factors. taking a broad view of the scientific models, it is clear that our knowledge is most certain for coarse aggregate statistics such as climate sensitivity, that the main contributors to uncertainty
If regression and adaptation What?
resiliency and adaptation. weather and climate is an integral part of agriculture, making it potentially
How many boundaries does agriculture cover?
centerpiece of an agricultural research strategy. decision making in agriculture mostly involves time horizons of one to five years, and long-term climate predictions are not very helpful for this purpose. instead, effort should be directed toward
State the benefits of climate change?
understanding successful farming strategies that address multiple changes and risks--including climate change and climate variability. better monitoring and prediction of weather and further investigation into ways to make better use of short-term and intermediate-term (i.e., seasonal) weather changes would have benefits without climate change and those benefits are likely greater given the prospect of changing climate
resiliency and adaptation. weather and climate is an integral part of agriculture, making it potentially misleading to identify a small set of responses as relevant to climate change. thus, specific research on adaptation of agriculture to climate change at the time scale of decades to centuries should not be the centerpiece of an agricultural research strategy. decision making in agriculture mostly involves time horizons of one to five years, and long-term climate predictions are not very helpful for this purpose. instead, effort should be directed toward understanding successful farming strategies that address multiple changes and risks--including climate change and climate variability. better monitoring and prediction of weather and further investigation into ways to make better use of short-term and intermediate-term (i.e., seasonal) weather changes would have benefits without climate change and those benefits are likely greater given the prospect of changing climate.
How many GRACE data sets did we use?
we used two grace data sets that are derived using different filtering algorithms seo and wilson 2005; chen et al. 2005] to infer the uncertainties in grace estimates
What do the two data sets contain?
these two data sets contain monthly data of the water storage change starting from august 2002 to december 2004
How does the modeled total water storage anomaly compare with the GRACE data sets?
the modeled total water storage anomaly (including groundwater and unsaturated soil water) compares fairly well with the two grace data sets in terms of interannual and interbasin variability for all the selected river basins (figure 4
we used two grace data sets that are derived using different filtering algorithms seo and wilson 2005; chen et al. 2005] to infer the uncertainties in grace estimates. these two data sets contain monthly data of the water storage change starting from august 2002 to december 2004. we selected the monthly averaged modeled data of the same month as those of grace to compute the anomaly of the water storage. the modeled total water storage anomaly (including groundwater and unsaturated soil water) compares fairly well with the two grace data sets in terms of interannual and interbasin variability for all the selected river basins (figure 4). the modeled groundwater storage variations explain most of the total water storage variations in all these river basins (figure 4). in the mississippi river basin (figure 4), the groundwater storage decreases in winter because of soil water freezing (decreasing the mass of liquid water), while the grace-measured water storage change increases mainly because of snow accumulated on the ground. because the modeled groundwater storage only reflects liquid water storage, it is not expected to be consistent with the grace estimates in cold regions where the water table is affected by frozen soil or snow water. to evaluate the variability of the modeled water table depth, we converted the grace water storage d sgrace) variations by the specific yield into the variations of water table depth as follows:
why is Synchrony in phenology between an insect and its environment crucial?
to maximising an individual's fitness
what is an example of key issue related to climat change?
a key issue with respect to climate change is whether the phenologies of interacting species respond in parallel to a warming environment. there is evidence that some plant-pollinator interactions have remained cohesive (hegland et al., 2009) whereas others have become temporally mismatched under recent climate change (memmott et al., 2007
what happened with the winter moth Operophtera brumata?
one of the best studied examples is the winter moth operophtera brumata (l.), where egg hatch has advanced significantly, relative to budburst in its host plant the pendunculate oak quercus robur (l.) (visser and holleman, 2001; van asch and visser, 2007
synchrony in phenology between an insect and its environment is crucial to maximising an individual's fitness. loss of synchrony could also have a significant impact, at the ecosystem level, on community dynamics. a key issue with respect to climate change is whether the phenologies of interacting species respond in parallel to a warming environment. there is evidence that some plant-pollinator interactions have remained cohesive (hegland et al., 2009) whereas others have become temporally mismatched under recent climate change (memmott et al., 2007). many plant-insect herbivore interactions have also been altered by climate warming (parmesan, 2007). the demographic consequences of these decoupled interactions, however, remains largely unknown. one of the best studied examples is the winter moth operophtera brumata (l.), where egg hatch has advanced significantly, relative to budburst in its host plant the pendunculate oak quercus robur (l.) (visser and holleman, 2001; van asch and visser, 2007). when considering the impact of diminished synchrony between insects and their host it is also important not to assume the 'starting point' prior to climate change represented 'perfect' synchrony. thus, feeny observed that before recent global warming, o. brumata routinely suffered 90% mortality due to mis-matches between egg hatch and budburst, suggesting the system may be highly vulnerable to small changes in synchrony (feeny, 1970). recent evidence, however, predicts a rapid response to selection pressure on the timing of egg hatch in o. brumata leading to a restoration of synchrony with q. robur bud burst (van asch et al., 2007). thus, as with adaptations in the photoperiodic induction of diapause in w. smithii (bradshaw and holzapfel, 2001a; bradshaw and holzapfel, 2001b), the genetic mechanisms underpinning adaptability to climate change and the selection pressures acting upon them, need to be considered before species responses can be predicted with any accuracy.
What are three reactions in sewage treatment that follows first-order kinetics?
the introduction of oxygen by artificial aeration is an example. other examples are the removal of organic matter in some systems and the decay of pathogenic organisms
If the organic matter is available in low concentrations, what kind or reaction will occur?
however, if the organic matter is available in low concentrations, the reaction occurs as a first-order reaction
In various complex processes what kind of kinetics does the global rate follow?
the global rate follows first-order kinetics in various complex processes
various reactions in sewage treatment follow first-order kinetics. the introduction of oxygen by artificial aeration is an example. other examples are the removal of organic matter in some systems and the decay of pathogenic organisms. the biological stabilisation of the organic matter may be represented by pseudo-first-order reaction, as covered in section 8.2.4. although various components are involved, such as oxygen concentration, number of microorganisms and concentration of the organic matter, the rate can be proportional to the concentration of one constituent (organic matter, in this case), provided the others are in relative abundance (arceivala, 1981). however, if the organic matter is available in low concentrations, the reaction occurs as a first-order reaction. this aspect is discussed in section 8.2.4. the global rate follows first-order kinetics in various complex processes. many substances can individually show zero-order kinetics, but the complex substrates in which many of these substances are aggregated (e.g. domestic and industrial wastewater) can suffer a decay rate that follows a first-order reaction. initially, when most of the components are being simultaneously removed (consumed), the global removal rate is high. after a certain time, however, the rate can be slower, 324 basic principles of wastewater treatment when only the most hardly degradable constituents are still present. in this case, the global reaction rate may resemble a typical first-order reaction (arceivala, 1981).
What do the attribution studies say is likely the cause of climate change?
anthropogenic factors
What kind of influence does the AR4 say is responsible for Arctic sea ice reductions?
human influence
the wealth of attribution studies reviewed in this article shows that there is an increasingly remote possibility that climate change is dominated by natural rather than anthropogenic factors. progress since the ar4 has shown that discernible human influence extends to reductions in arctic sea ice and changes in the hydrological cycle associated with increasing atmospheric moisture content, global and regional patterns of precipitation changes, and increases in ocean salinity in atlantic low latitudes. in addition, changes in antarctic temperatures (the one continent on which an attribution study was not available at the time of ar4) have been attributed to human influence and there is increasing evidence that human influence on temperature is becoming significant below continental scales, as would be expected from the large-scale coherence of surface temperature. we have discussed in this review how attributed changes in atmospheric moisture content49
What makes it difficult to prove or disprove Glantz's hypotheses concerning constraints?
to offer some perspective on this trend, this article draws on observations of the uses and the impacts of el nino related climate forecasts in the peruvian fisheries sector during the 1997-98 el nino. data limitations make it difficult to prove or disprove glantz's hypotheses concerning constraints, but we use observations of actual outcomes to highlight conceptual issues that have been largely ignored in efforts to disseminate climate information
What do they believe forecasts have the potential to provide benefits to?
while we do believe that forecasts have the potential to provide benefits to numerous groups, we feel that these issues must be addressed if benefits are to be consistently realized
The current set of providers in Peru of such seasonal-to-interannual climate forecasts include who?
the current set of providers in peru of such seasonal-to-interannual climate forecasts includes several multinational organizations,3a regional organization based in s. america, four peruvian governmental agencies and two universities, as well as many individual scientists who distributed forecasts on the web. many of
to offer some perspective on this trend, this article draws on observations of the uses and the impacts of el nino related climate forecasts in the peruvian fisheries sector during the 1997-98 el nino. data limitations make it difficult to prove or disprove glantz's hypotheses concerning constraints, but we use observations of actual outcomes to highlight conceptual issues that have been largely ignored in efforts to disseminate climate information. while we do believe that forecasts have the potential to provide benefits to numerous groups, we feel that these issues must be addressed if benefits are to be consistently realized. the current set of providers in peru of such seasonal-to-interannual climate forecasts includes several multinational organizations,3a regional organization based in s. america, four peruvian governmental agencies and two universities, as well as many individual scientists who distributed forecasts on the web. many of
Explain the values of Population-weighted?
population-weighted values are changes in each grid cell multiplied by its population, summed over all cells and divided by the world population. parameters indicating "land" or "ocean" are averages over land and ocean, respectively
What is SSA?
ssa is single-scattering albedo, cod is cloud optical depth, tke is turbulent kinetic energy, rh is relative humidity, and pm is particulate matter. albedo from land cover is the albedo derived from satellite data used to initialize the radiative transfer calculation
What is albedo calculated?
the albedo from radiative transfer is the albedo calculated from the radiative transfer code, accounting for a layer of ocean water, lake water, sea ice, or snow if they are present and for the current composition of the atmosphere and angle of the sun
population-weighted values are changes in each grid cell multiplied by its population, summed over all cells and divided by the world population. parameters indicating "land" or "ocean" are averages over land and ocean, respectively. divide mg/m2 by 1.9637 to obtain tg. aod is aerosol optical depth. ssa is single-scattering albedo, cod is cloud optical depth, tke is turbulent kinetic energy, rh is relative humidity, and pm is particulate matter. albedo from land cover is the albedo derived from satellite data used to initialize the radiative transfer calculation. the albedo from radiative transfer is the albedo calculated from the radiative transfer code, accounting for a layer of ocean water, lake water, sea ice, or snow if they are present and for the current composition of the atmosphere and angle of the sun.
What is found in the Top Left?
top left: mean annual surface air temperature anomaly (*c; experiment 2 minus pre-industrial control
What is found in the Middle Left?
middle left: mean annual total precipitation rate anomaly (mmday- 1; experiment 1 minus preindustrial control
What is found in the Bottom Left?
bottom left: mean annual sea surface temperature anomaly (*c; experiment 2 minus pre-industrial control
discussion paper discussion paper discussion paper discussion paper fig. 3. multi-model means, zonal means and model 2 s from the experiment 2 ensemble. top left: mean annual surface air temperature anomaly (*c; experiment 2 minus pre-industrial control). top middle: mean annual zonal surface air temperature anomaly, with the model 2 s shading around the mean. top right: model 2 s of mean annual surface air temperature anomalies. middle left: mean annual total precipitation rate anomaly (mmday- 1; experiment 1 minus preindustrial control). middle middle: mean annual zonal total precipitation rate anomaly. middle right: model 2 s of mean annual total precipitation rate anomalies. bottom left: mean annual sea surface temperature anomaly (*c; experiment 2 minus pre-industrial control). bottom middle: mean annual zonal sea surface temperature anomaly. bottom right: model 2 s of mean annual sea surface temperature anomalies.
Where are water isotopes included?
water isotopes are included in the atmosphere (30), sea ice, and ocean (31) and were tracked through all stages of the hydrologic cycle
How is the ocean model?
the ocean model is non-boussinesq, mass conserving, and has a full free surface
What kind of water is added?
freshwater is added in a ''natural'' way (increasing the free surface and reducing salinity purely through dilution
we used a fully coupled atmosphere  ocean gcm (goddard institute for space studies modele) that is also being used for the intergovernmental panel on climate change ar4 (29). water isotopes are included in the atmosphere (30), sea ice, and ocean (31) and were tracked through all stages of the hydrologic cycle. the ocean model is non-boussinesq, mass conserving, and has a full free surface. freshwater is added in a ''natural'' way (increasing the free surface and reducing salinity purely through dilution). no equivalent salt fluxes or flux adjustments were used. all boundary conditions and atmospheric composition are appropriate to the preindustrial (circa 1880).
To what purpose is intended this guidebook?
the guidebook is intended to assist the transition to "climate-smart" approaches in resource management
What this Guidebook specifically brings up ?
this guidebook is a summary of current knowledge on climate change adaptation from educational syntheses, specific tools, facilitated dialogues, workshops, and case studies
Who have been busy to grow important mechanisms for adaption to climate change?
forest service research scientists and cooperators have been working to develop tools and guidelines relevant for adaptation to climate change on national forests
in response to this need, forest service research scientists and cooperators have been working to develop tools and guidelines relevant for adaptation to climate change on national forests. forest service research stations and national forests have established science-management partnerships to develop scientific bases for adaptation and find effective ways to communicate and implement this knowledge. this effort builds on existing principles of adaptation to climate change (bosworth et al. 2008, joyce et al. 2008, julius and west 2008, millar et al. 2007) and provides science-based strategic and tactical approaches for adapting to climate change. recent collaborative projects among forest service research stations, national forests, national parks, and other stakeholders have focused on (1) climate change education for resource managers, (2) potential vulnerabilities of natural resources to a changing climate, (3) options that facilitate adaptation to the effects of a changing climate, and (4) opportunities to implement adaptation in on-the-ground manage ment and planning. rapid communication of knowledge obtained from these collaborations is needed to inform adaptation strategies and facilitate preparation for a changing climate. this guidebook is a summary of current knowledge on climate change adaptation from educational syntheses, specific tools, facilitated dialogues, workshops, and case studies. it is focused specifically on topics and approaches that are relevant to and compatible with resource management on national forests and potentially on other federal lands. indeed, all adaptation options developed for case studies to date were conceived by resource managers and disciplinary specialists from national forests and national parks. it is our hope that the tools and approaches presented here will help focus adaptation on the needs of resource managers and planners. the guidebook is intended to assist the transition to "climate-smart" approaches in resource management. it is not intended to be a comprehensive accounting of all scientific and management efforts on climate change adapta tion, but rather a compilation of information and lessons learned that will inform adaptation planning and practice on national forests. the guidebook is intended to be dynamic and will continue to evolve as new knowledge becomes available,1 adaptation options on federal lands are implemented and evaluated, policy and guidelines are formalized, and the effects of a changing climate are documented.
what is the double slit experiment?
when a light beam is trained on a barrier with two parallel slits, the "wave like" character of light is shown to originate not in the interference of colliding streams of photons, but rather in the probabilistic interference of each individual photon with itself as it simultaneously passes through "both slits at once." more eerily still, the mere attempt to observe this phenomenon as it occurs--by placing sensors, say, at the entry to the slits--"forces" each photon to pass through just one of the slits and to travel an unmolested, "particle like" path to a screen, forming two parallel strips of light instead of the wave's signature interference pattern (feynman, 1963, iii: 1-4 to 1-6
What is the focus of this article?
my focus in this article is on another "measurement problem": one distinctive of the science of science communication. the occasion for this bewitching difficulty is not the "dualistic" qualities of
What is known as the measurement problem in the world of physhics?
why collecting information on the "dualistic" wave-particle quality of photons (or electrons or any other elementary particle) eviscerates every trace of this process is known in the study of physics as the "measurement problem," and it emerges as the central feature of every distinctive element of quantum mechanics. my focus in this article is on another "measurement problem": one distinctive of the science of science communication. the occasion for this bewitching difficulty is not the "dualistic" qualities of
what is the science-of-science-communication measurement problem? the "double slit" experiment is the most bewitching illustration of the challenge that quantum physics poses to its classical predecessor. when a light beam is trained on a barrier with two parallel slits, the "wave like" character of light is shown to originate not in the interference of colliding streams of photons, but rather in the probabilistic interference of each individual photon with itself as it simultaneously passes through "both slits at once." more eerily still, the mere attempt to observe this phenomenon as it occurs--by placing sensors, say, at the entry to the slits--"forces" each photon to pass through just one of the slits and to travel an unmolested, "particle like" path to a screen, forming two parallel strips of light instead of the wave's signature interference pattern (feynman, 1963, iii: 1-4 to 1-6). why collecting information on the "dualistic" wave-particle quality of photons (or electrons or any other elementary particle) eviscerates every trace of this process is known in the study of physics as the "measurement problem," and it emerges as the central feature of every distinctive element of quantum mechanics. my focus in this article is on another "measurement problem": one distinctive of the science of science communication. the occasion for this bewitching difficulty is not the "dualistic" qualities of
Under the Building Regulations,to whom do the fire safety regulations apply?
under the building regulations, fire safety regulations apply to those who build a building in the first place, or modify one
Since when have we known that certain building types, those with excessive glazing in particular, overheat in hot weather?
we have known since the 1960s that certain building types, those with excessive glazing in particular, overheat in hot weather
What has legislation enabled elctricity supply company to do?
legislation has enabled electricity supply companies ' to restrict their liability for economic loss caused by negligence disrupting the supply
lawyers have commented on another dimension of the issue. under the building regulations, fire safety regulations apply to those who build a building in the first place, or modify one. for many years this has meant having an ' appropriate means of escape in case of fire ' that is, one that is capable of being safely and effectively used at all material times. but emergency lighting is not mentioned, although it would be hard to argue that an escape route that cannot be safely used when the power fails is ' appropriate ' 44 employers also have a duty of care under the fire precautions (workplace) regulations 1997 to provide emergency lighting. regulatory breach is an offence but does not give rise to civil liability. the quality of the emergency lighting may depend on the property's age, and of course the diligence of the employers in ensuring that the regulations and legislation are complied with. deep plan offices, with less available natural daylight, require more emergency lighting than offices with a shallower floor plan. regular maintenance of battery systems is also important. qc graham eklund warns that legislation has enabled electricity supply companies ' to restrict their liability for economic loss caused by negligence disrupting the supply ' so it is likely that ' economic losses consequent on a negligently caused blackout or failure of the electricity supply ' will not be coverable. 45 in new york in the august 2003 blackouts it should be noted that both simple and sophisticated systems for emergency lighting failed alike in some buildings. questions will arise in the law as to where liability lies where buildings also have to be abandoned in extreme weather events, such as the emptying of the treasury building in the heatwave of august 2003. we have known since the 1960s that certain building types, those with excessive glazing in particular, overheat in hot weather. it could, and no doubt will be, argued that because of the quantity of related information in the public realm on the subject, designers could be held liable for buildings that provide unnecessarily uncomfortable temperatures during hot spells. this has yet to be tested in the courts but a good case could be made. similarly, where loss of life occurs during flood events due to insufficient attention being given to the problem at the design stage then designers could again be held culpable.
What's the acronym for the Atlantic hydrography?
when the atlantic hydrography (a
Where is the atmospheric forcing derived from in NEMOMED8?
in the nemomed8 simulations where the atmospheric forcing is derived from rcm3
How many runs are in this simulation?
simulations set in this study, we present a family of 8 runs
this seasonal cycle of bias is then subtracted to all years of the historical (1961-2000) and scenario (2001-2099) simulations. the sst bias correction remains constant in time. 2.3 simulations set in this study, we present a family of 8 runs (table 1 ): 6 scenario sensitivity simulations and 2 historical simulations. when the surface fluxes (f) and/or the river runoff (r) come from the newest version of arpege-climate (rcm4), the simulation name contains a "f" and or a "r" in its acronym. when the atlantic hydrography (a) comes from the newest version of cnrm-cm (gcm3), the simulation name contains an "a" in its acronym. if not, then the lateral boundary conditions come from older model versions (rcm3 and gcm2). in the nemomed8 simulations where the atmospheric forcing is derived from rcm3, the freshwater correction term is
Which Circulations will link the pacific EI Nino and warming of Tropical Atlantic?
the walker and hadley circulations may also link the pacific el nino and warming in the tropical atlantic
Why was pacific EI Nino established?
pacific el nino conditions were established during the winter seasons prior to warming of tna and the whwp
When was Atlantic Hadley Circulation weakened?
the atlantic hadley circulation is weakened during the mature phase of the pacific el nin
the walker and hadley circulations may also link the pacific el nino and warming in the tropical atlantic. pacific el nino conditions were established during the winter seasons prior to warming of tna and the whwp. in figure 6-3 we see composite-averaged maps of the velocity potential, divergent wind, vertical velocity, and circulation departures for the mature phase of el nino. most prominent are large convergent and divergent areas over northern south america and the gulf of mexico, respectively, at 200 mb (fig. 6-3b). the upper convergence is fed by an anomalous northerly flow from the north, which in turn diverges from the caribbean and subtropical north atlantic. figure 6-3d shows an anomalous zonal walker circulation. the atlantic hadley circulation is weakened during the mature phase of the pacific el nino (fig. 6-3f). associated with these circulations are anomalous descending over northern south america and anomalous ascending motion in the region of the north atlantic subtropical high-pressure system (fig. 6-3c). the hadley circulation
What does the analysis demonstrate?
our analysis demonstrates that genetic differentiation between regions (and inferred gene flow) varies markedly among coral species
What does the low genetic diversity of the species at LHI suggest?
the low genetic diversity of this species at lhi suggests that all 150 colonies that we sampled there are derived from a very few and perhaps even a single, colonist
What have we concluded, even if an untested assumption?
we conclude that the common but untested assumption that larval duration can explain geographical range (mora et al. 2003) requires much more rigorous assessment
our analysis demonstrates that genetic differentiation between regions (and inferred gene flow) varies markedly among coral species. at one extreme, s. hystrix is characterized by low gene flow at all scales: among regions, more locally among sites within regions (fig. 3) and even among habitats (ayre dufty 1994). the low genetic diversity of this species at lhi suggests that all 150 colonies that we sampled there are derived from a very few and perhaps even a single, colonist. yet, despite very low rates of gene flow, s. hystrix has an enormous geographical range, extending northwards from lhi to japan, east to french polynesia and west to africa and the red sea (veron 2000). although s. hystrix must be an effective colonist over geological time frames, our data indicate that of the species we examined, its populations are the most subdivided and the most susceptible to loss of alleles through genetic drift or founder events. although styllophora pistillata has an equally huge geographical range (veron 2000), it falls at the opposite end of the spectrum of fst values that we recorded (table 1). this disparity indicates that rates of gene flow are not a reliable predictor of the geographical range of corals. furthermore there is no consistent difference in larval type (brooder or spawner) in pandemic vs. endemic species of corals (hughes et al. 2002a 3 ). we conclude that the common but untested assumption that larval duration can explain geographical range (mora et al. 2003) requires much more rigorous assessment. a highly subdivided pandemic, such as s. hystrix may be just as vulnerable to climate change as an endemic, especially if the endemic species has higher levels of connectivity among subpopulations throughout its more limited range.
What is shown in Panel A?
panel a shows survival of first-year pre-breeders in red, including its variation with homozygosity weighted by locus (hl); averaged survival for years 1 to 6 is shown in blue
What is shown in Panel B?
panel b shows age-specific survival for recruiting seals
What percentage of CIs do all vertical bars show?
all vertical bars show 95% cis
extended data figure 2 variation in survival probability and breeding propensity (fecundity) with variation in the sam index. panel a shows survival of first-year pre-breeders in red, including its variation with homozygosity weighted by locus (hl); averaged survival for years 1 to 6 is shown in blue. panel b shows age-specific survival for recruiting seals, and panel c the survival for adults (that is, seals with previous breeding experience) with variation by stages defined according to previous breeding outcomes (successful, failed, or deferred breeding). panel d shows inter-annual breeding propensity for recently recruited seals and for experienced breeders. all vertical bars show 95% cis.
what is the percentage of water and dry matter in a bacterial cell?
approximately 80% of the bacterial cell is composed of water and 20% of dry matter
conversion of nitrate to nitrogen gas (denitrification) facultative chemoheterotrophic bacteria the cellular structure of bacteria was presented in section 7.3 and illustrated in figure 7.1. approximately 80% of the bacterial cell is composed of water and 20% of dry matter. of this dry matter, around 90% is organic and 10% inorganic. widely used formulas for the characterisation of the approximate cell composition are (metcalf eddy, 1991): c5h7o2n (without phosphorus in the formula) c60h87o23n12p (with phosphorus in the formula) in any of the two formulations, the c:h:o:n ratio is the same. an important aspect is that all of these components should be obtained from the medium, and the absence of any of them could limit the growth of the bacterial population. the utilisation by the bacteria of the substrate available in the medium depends on the relative size of the particle. the two main fractions of the organic matter in the wastewater are (a) easily biodegradable fraction and (b) slowly biodegradable fraction in a typical domestic sewage, most of the organic matter in soluble form microbiology and ecology of wastewater treatment 309
What impacts produce complex consequences for human development?
the climatic and sectoral impacts outlined above can combine to further produce complex and not easily predicted consequences for various aspects of human development
Why does any sectoral assessment fall short of providing a comprehensive picture of climate impacts?
any sectoral assessment falls short of providing a comprehensive picture of climate impacts under different warming levels as potential interactions between impacts across sectors are rarely represented
How human responses to changes in one sector can bring about impacts in other sectors?
expansion of agricultural areas to compensate for crop yield declines, for example, can come at the cost of terrestrial carbon sinks and other ecosystem services (frieler et al. 2015 
the climatic and sectoral impacts outlined above can combine to further produce complex and not easily predicted consequences for various aspects of human development. figure 5 integrates projected physical and sectoral impacts across different warming levels. any sectoral assessment falls short of providing a comprehensive picture of climate impacts under different warming levels as potential interactions between impacts across sectors are rarely represented. slow-onset impacts in different sectors may interact and thereby change the overall toll of climate damages. elliott et al. 2014 ), for example, find irrigation adaptation limits for agriculture in southern subsaharan africa due to climate-induced constraints in freshwater availability. human responses to changes in one sector can also bring about impacts in other sectors. expansion of agricultural areas to compensate for crop yield declines, for example, can come at the cost of terrestrial carbon sinks and other ecosystem services (frieler et al. 2015 ). extreme weather events in particular can cause simultaneous damage across sectors, exacerbating the overall effect. from the list of impacts described for sub-saharan africa in this paper, for example extreme events, such as flooding events which are expected to increase, for example, for the upper blue nile river basin, can trigger outbreaks of disease to which people are likely to be more vulnerable under conditions of existing food insecurity. at the same time, tropical cyclones and flooding events can cause severe damage to critical infrastructure, including transport, tourism and healthcare infrastructure. this can be particularly serious if precisely those institutions that are designed to cope with impacts, such as healthcare infrastructure, are themselves placed under additional pressure due to extreme weather events.
Why couldn't forest-edge shade be directly measured?
forest-edge shade could not be directly measured, since the current shade regime within the field is modified by large patches of tall white pine saplings near forest edges
How was forest-edge shade modeled instead of being directly measured?
thus the distribution of shade along forest edges was modeled using site location, site geometry (forest-edge shape and height), and basic equations for solar movement (campbell and norman 1998
What was simulated in this model?
we simulated shadow movement along the field's edge during the period from may to september (beginning of late spring to end of early fall [baker and strub 1963]). in order to simplify the calculations, we simulated the location of the shadow at 1-h intervals one day in the middle of each month and calculated
forest-edge shade could not be directly measured, since the current shade regime within the field is modified by large patches of tall white pine saplings near forest edges. thus the distribution of shade along forest edges was modeled using site location, site geometry (forest-edge shape and height), and basic equations for solar movement (campbell and norman 1998). we simulated shadow movement along the field's edge during the period from may to september (beginning of late spring to end of early fall [baker and strub 1963]). in order to simplify the calculations, we simulated the location of the shadow at 1-h intervals one day in the middle of each month and calculated
Does Volume Conservation mean that fluid maintains a materially constant density?
volume conservation does not mean that the fluid maintains a materially constant density
Whats the purpose of this section?
to summarize some common approximations made in ocean climate modeling
What happens when fluid is in motion?
vertical pressure gradients are also affected by vertical accelerations and friction
materially conserved volume is part of the boussinesq approximation, and this approximation has found much use in ocean modeling. notably, volume conservation does not mean that the fluid maintains a materially constant density. indeed, material changes in density affect changes in hydrostatic pressure, which in turn drives many of the ocean's current systems, especially those at depth. 2.4 kinematical and dynamical approximations the very success of the navier-stokes equations makes them often cumbersome to apply in practice. that is, since they encompass such a huge spectrum of dynamical motions, the theoretician, modeler, and experimentalist typically find it difficult to focus on certain elements of these motions while using the full set of equations. reducing the spectral range over which the equations are valid has motivated a multitude of methods to approximate the equations of fluid motion. the purpose of this section is to summarize some common approximations made in ocean climate modeling. more precise descriptions of these approximations are provided in later chapters. for now, just the general ideas are presented. 2.4.1 hydrostatic approximation pressure is a force per unit area acting on a fluid parcel. pressure at a point within a fluid at rest in a gravitational field is given by the weight of fluid above the point per unit horizontal cross-sectional area. hence, the vertical pressure gradient is given by the buoyancy. this situation constitutes the hydrostatic balance when the fluid is in motion, vertical pressure gradients are also affected by vertical accelerations and friction. however, for many geophysically relevant fluid motions, the dominant balance in the vertical momentum equation remains the hydrostatic balance. the level to which the hydrostatic balance remains dominant is directly proportional to the ratio of vertical
What percentage of mean pre-fire tree cover is in Northeast Eurasia?
23
What percentage of mean pre-fire tree cover is in Northwest Eurasia?
36
What percentage of mean pre-fire tree cover is in Southern Eurasia?
35
because change ratios can be artificially inflated by low-density stands, we considered only pixels with at least 19% pre-fire tree cover. this threshold adequately separates forest from tundra in north america1. we chose to use relative, instead of absolute, changes as our metric because the proportion of trees killed is more relevant to fire ecology and modeling. this decision primarily affected comparisons with northeast eurasia as it contains more open, sparse stands24 (supplementary fig. 2): mean pre-fire tree cover was 23% in northeast eurasia compared to 36%, 35%, and 37% for northwest eurasia, southern eurasia, and north america, respectively. the differenced normalized burn ratio (dnbr) utilizes changes to nearand shortwavethe differenced normalized burn ratio (dnbr) utilizes changes to nearand shortwaveinfrared reflectance bands and is generally sensitive to landscape charring, increased soil exposure, and loss of vegetation25,26. decreases in ndvi (dndvi) indicate destruction to photosynthetic tissue27,28,25. we calculated these metrics in similar ways for fires during 2001 2012. dnbr was calculated using the mcd43a3 product. as in ref. 29:
How many of the Maldives atolls and islands are populated?
the maldives include 19 major atolls and approximately 1190 islands, of which 202 are populated
What is the coral used for in Maldives?
coral are used for building material, fisheries are the leading economic activity, and tourism is the second pillar of the economy
What is the tidal range in Maldives?
with a tidal range of one meter, even distant storms in the indian ocean cause severe flooding
the republic of the maldives reveals dramatically the extreme vulnerability of small island states to climate change. the maldives include 19 major atolls and approximately 1190 islands, of which 202 are populated. no island is more than three metres above mean sea level and most are less than one meter high. with a tidal range of one meter, even distant storms in the indian ocean cause severe flooding. the offshore reef system supports a complex coral community that sustains the economy and everyday life of the maldives. coral are used for building material, fisheries are the leading economic activity, and tourism is the second pillar of the economy. confronted by an array of economic and development problems and rapid population growth, the maldives face possibly devastating effects from climate change driven sea-level rise and severe storms, as indicated in box 2. it is clear that small-island states are among the world's regions most endangered by climate change and will require extensive intervention by the larger international community to ward off long-term disruptions and the loss of the rich cultural heritage of the islands.
What are some of the climate change issues that have not yet been established with certainty in southern Africa?
for instance, in relation to southern africa, there are several climate change issues that have not yet been established with certainty that are important for agriculture, such as the time of onset of summer rainfall and the prevalence of dry spells within the rain seasons
How does the climate change issues not addressed in southern Africa affect the farmers?
this affects the information that has to be relayed to the farmers and the specific strategies to be devised, promoted, and adopted. development specialists' intervention strategies, therefore, facilitate adaptation mainly to current and not future climate changes
What is the condition of  available models and information on climate change and what is the impact of it?
available models and information also exist at regional, continental, and global levels. models are not yet able to predict the impacts at very small scales, so extension officers have real challenges in providing the farmers with knowledge that is location and ecologically specific. this has resulted in limited awareness and knowledge on climate change, its impacts, and adaptation strategies amongst the farmers at local level
limited awareness about the nature and magnitude of climate change starts with researchers and academics. for instance, in relation to southern africa, there are several climate change issues that have not yet been established with certainty that are important for agriculture, such as the time of onset of summer rainfall and the prevalence of dry spells within the rain seasons. this affects the information that has to be relayed to the farmers and the specific strategies to be devised, promoted, and adopted. development specialists' intervention strategies, therefore, facilitate adaptation mainly to current and not future climate changes (gandure, 2008). available models and information also exist at regional, continental, and global levels. models are not yet able to predict the impacts at very small scales, so extension officers have real challenges in providing the farmers with knowledge that is location and ecologically specific. this has resulted in limited awareness and knowledge on climate change, its impacts, and adaptation strategies amongst the farmers at local level.
How is the first term similar to?
the first term is similar to the subsurface runoff formulation in topmodel for the saturated area; lb is the maximum subsurface runoff coefficient when the entire soil column is saturated
What does second term follows and represents?
the second term follows bats and represents the gravitational drainage from the bottom of the soil column, where ksat( zb) is the saturated hydraulic conductivity at the model bottom
What is wbm?
wbm is the hydraulicconductivity-weighted average of the wetness in the bottom three layers. ksat( zb) is 0.04 mm s 1(as calibrated against the red-arkansas watershed streamflow data), a value that
the first term is similar to the subsurface runoff formulation in topmodel for the saturated area; lb is the maximum subsurface runoff coefficient when the entire soil column is saturated. the second term follows bats and represents the gravitational drainage from the bottom of the soil column, where ksat( zb) is the saturated hydraulic conductivity at the model bottom, which is the maximum bottom drainage rate when the bottom soil is saturated. wbm is the hydraulicconductivity-weighted average of the wetness in the bottom three layers. ksat( zb) is 0.04 mm s 1(as calibrated against the red-arkansas watershed streamflow data), a value that
Why have national supply control policies gone out of fashion?
with globalization of the farm and food sectors, national supply control policies have gone out of fashion, because the production de fi cit resulting from a single country ' s restrictions is now readily fi lled by foreign competitors
What does food demand is price inelastic mean?
meaning that the potential revenue loss of any reduction in quantity is more than offset by the ensuing rise in price
What do agricultural economist understand can benefit farm asset owners?
it has long been understood among agricultural economists that direct or indirect efforts to restrict agricultural production can bene fi t farm asset owners
it has long been understood among agricultural economists that direct or indirect efforts to restrict agricultural production can bene fi t farm asset owners. this fi nding is because food demand is price-inelastic, meaning that the potential revenue loss of any reduction in quantity is more than offset by the ensuing rise in price. indeed, this knowledge has been implicit in many of the historical attempts at agricultural supply control as a vehicle to transfer income to the farm sector -- particularly in the united states (21). with globalization of the farm and food sectors, national supply control policies have gone out of fashion, because the production de fi cit resulting from a single country ' s restrictions is now readily fi lled by foreign competitors. the climate policies considered here indirectly achieve the same type of farm supply restriction but at global scale. table 2
Qual sÃ£o os principais riscos que podemos correr devido as mudanÃ§as climÃ¡ticas?
it is not hard to imagine how scientists might despair over letting the climate facts speak for themselves. for 20 years, scientists have known the basic climate gamble: in return for the benefits of carbon-emitting activities, we risk large, often unpredictable changes in the natural world with large, often unpredictable impacts on those who depend on it. from this perspective, we have had 20 years of irrational inaction
Sera que precisar esperar a ciÃªncia melhoarar para comeÃ§amos a fazer as mudanÃ§as nos mesmo?
even the recent decline in organized opposition to evidence of climate change might bring little cheer. if it took this long to acknowledge the problem, what will it take to decide what to do to solve it? waiting for better science to clarify choices can be rational, but only if the evidence accumulates faster than the situation deteriorates. otherwise, the expected value of the new science is less than the expected cost of inaction. many scientists feel that we cannot afford to wait. if the public cannot understand the gamble, then perhaps scientists must simplify it for them--discarding the uncertainty, so that people will act
it is not hard to imagine how scientists might despair over letting the climate facts speak for themselves. for 20 years, scientists have known the basic climate gamble: in return for the benefits of carbon-emitting activities, we risk large, often unpredictable changes in the natural world with large, often unpredictable impacts on those who depend on it. from this perspective, we have had 20 years of irrational inaction. even the recent decline in organized opposition to evidence of climate change might bring little cheer. if it took this long to acknowledge the problem, what will it take to decide what to do to solve it? waiting for better science to clarify choices can be rational, but only if the evidence accumulates faster than the situation deteriorates. otherwise, the expected value of the new science is less than the expected cost of inaction. many scientists feel that we cannot afford to wait. if the public cannot understand the gamble, then perhaps scientists must simplify it for them--discarding the uncertainty, so that people will act. what good is taking the moral high ground in a collapsing world? that conclusion is based on the assumption that scientists' usual non-persuasive communication will fail, because the public cannot grasp the implications of climate science, when its facts are left to speak for themselves. however, another interpretation is also possible. perhaps scientists have failed the public, by not providing it with the information needed to make climate-related decisions in a credible, comprehensible way. if so, then science advocacy might be like shouting at people who speak a different language, thus losing their trust while conveying little content, resulting in unpersuasive communication. summarizing several surveys, krosnick et al. 1, 2 report that, for a decade or more, most americans have accepted the fact of climate change. thus, that key message has gotten through. the question then becomes why their awareness has produced
What are local factors that disrupt the acquatic ecosystem in the Andeas?
large landslides, volcanic and tephra events, as well as tectonic-induced drainage changes
What happened during glacial cycles of the Quaternary?
ice expanded east and west from the andean divide, with lobes first advancing along existing valleys, covering upland lakes and streams
What are presumably caused aquatic species to shift away from the divide?
the cooling climate, accompanied by regional increases in aridity
while many local factors have disrupted aquatic ecosystems in the andes over the past few million years, including large landslides, volcanic and tephra events, as well as tectonic-induced drainage changes, the wide geographical extent of synchronous demographic changes we see for galaxias platei and percichthys trucha and the coincidence of the timing of those changes with significant andean glaciations, strongly suggest a broad-scale causal factor such as climate change. during the glacial cycles of the quaternary, ice expanded east and west from the andean divide, with lobes first advancing along existing valleys, covering upland lakes and streams. the cooling climate, accompanied by regional increases in aridity, presumably caused aquatic species to shift away from the divide, perhaps expanding onto the newly exposed continental shelf as sea level
What are the use of Plant hydraulics?
plant hydraulics offers important tools for predicting how the planet's terrestrial vegetation will respond to climate change
Based on what parsimonious theory works?
parsimonious theory we advance is no more complex than the representation of soil physics already present in most land surface models, and yet it provides a mechanistically based estimate of how plant water and co2 fluxes respond to soil and atmospheric water deficits
What is the use of 'xylem physics' ?
the rapidly growing database of vulnerability curves (choat et al. 2012) facilitates adding 'xylem physics' to close the gap between climatic water stress and the physiological regulation of gas exchange
plant hydraulics offers important tools for predicting how the planet's terrestrial vegetation will respond to climate change. we have emphasized basic hydraulic principles and their utility rather than details of implementation in hopes of encouraging the modeling community to experiment with the supply - loss concept and adapt it to their needs. the intentionally parsimonious theory we advance is no more complex than the representation of soil physics already present in most land surface models, and yet it provides a mechanistically based estimate of how plant water and co2 fluxes respond to soil and atmospheric water deficits. the rapidly growing database of vulnerability curves (choat et al. 2012) facilitates adding 'xylem physics' to close the gap between climatic water stress and the physiological regulation of gas exchange. tying a water loss function to hydraulic supply is a powerfully simple way to represent complex stomatal regulation under water-liming conditions. the concept of hydraulic types can augment the plant-functional-type approach already in use for representing species-specific drought responses, with care taken to incorporate intraspecific variation (anderegg, 2014). testing the hydraulic supply - loss theory is obviously a crucial step, but not a difficult one, given the number of suitably instrumented natural stands and plantations around the world.
What is a rainy-day fund?
a rainy-day fund is basically a self-insurance mechanism at the country level: it collects resources in years where the budget constraint is not binding to support reactive adaptation when impacts materialize
What is the purpose of stabilization funds?
they are in general aimed at smoothing public spending by saving during booms and using the balances to cover public revenue shortfalls during recessions
What is the importance of rainy day funds?
experience so far suggests that rainy-day funds do reduce expenditure volatility, but that the institutional arrangements matter, notably the stringency of deposit and withdrawal rules
actuarial returns may be difficult to compute when the frequency and/or magnitude of the losses increase, and when the rate at which they increase is itself uncertain. where spatial/ geographic correlations between losses increase, insurance margins may be eroded further. setting up public "stabilization" funds or rainy-day funds might thus be necessary to complement private insurance markets. a rainy-day fund is basically a self-insurance mechanism at the country level: it collects resources in years where the budget constraint is not binding to support reactive adaptation when impacts materialize. stabilization funds are already commonly used. they are in general aimed at smoothing public spending by saving during booms and using the balances to cover public revenue shortfalls during recessions. stabilization funds exist in most u.s. states and they have been used in many countries, including developing countries (fasano, 2000). experience so far suggests that rainy-day funds do reduce expenditure volatility, but that the institutional arrangements matter, notably the stringency of deposit and withdrawal rules (e.g., sobel and holcombe, 1996). in a partial equilibrium framework, an intertemporal resource transfer is cost-effective only if the returns to the sums invested are higher than or equal to the discount rate. however, the returns to investment in a rainy-day fund may be lower than the rate of discount,33 for at least three reasons. first, balances must remain available at all times because the date at which impacts occur is uncertain, and liquid investments have typically lower rates of returns than illiquid ones. second, governments are likely to prefer low-risk financial investments to protect the capital, and lower risk usually implies lower returns. finally, stabilization funds are tempting targets for governments, especially when returns are high and balances large. there is thus a risk that the funds will be rerouted to other purposes--a risk that legal dispositions can only partially mitigate.34
What is the name of the teacher who warned us that we need to plan an adaptation to increases of 4 degrees C?
professor bob watson, chief scientific officer for the uk department of the environment, food and rural affairs (defra), spoke to the press on 7 august 2008 after the publication of a two and a half year analysis by the uk foresight programme, and said that he thought we should now plan to adapt to temperature rises of up to 4 deg c
Who was the person who agreed with the teacher?
sir david king, the former chief scientific officer to the uk government, concurred with these findings
what was the risk pointed out by the former scientific director of the uk government?
pointing out that there is now a 20% risk that we may reach these temperatures and that if we do it may well push up over dangerous climate tipping points resulting in knock-on effects such as the release of the methane hydrate deposits in the arctic
two important studies have recently brought to public attention the possibility that we are already ' beyond the tipping point ' and facing runaway climate change. professor bob watson, chief scientific officer for the uk department of the environment, food and rural affairs (defra), spoke to the press on 7 august 2008 after the publication of a two and a half year analysis by the uk foresight programme, and said that he thought we should now plan to adapt to temperature rises of up to 4 deg c. sir david king, the former chief scientific officer to the uk government, concurred with these findings, pointing out that there is now a 20% risk that we may reach these temperatures and that if we do it may well push up over dangerous climate tipping points resulting in knock-on effects such as the release of the methane hydrate deposits in the arctic.
Define effects of global change on Europe ?
the effects of global change on europe are likely to increase productivity of agricultural and forestry systems, because increasing co2 concentration will directly increase resource use efficiencies of plants, and because warming will give more favourable conditions for plant production in northern europe
How increasing CO2 will compensate ?
the increased water use efficiency caused by increasing co2 will compensate only partially the negative effects of increasing water limitations. furthermore, in the southern areas the increase in water shortage and extreme weather events (e.g. heat waves, wind speed, etc.) may cause higher yield variability and an increase in abiotic and biotic damages (i.e. wind, fire, pestdisease damages
How negative impacts could be addressed ?
these negative impacts could be addressed supporting the development and of specific agricultural and forestry adaptive management measures (e.g. agronomic and water conservation practices, modification of microclimate, regular forest management, shorter rotations
the effects of global change on europe are likely to increase productivity of agricultural and forestry systems, because increasing co2 concentration will directly increase resource use efficiencies of plants, and because warming will give more favourable conditions for plant production in northern europe. in southern areas, however, the benefits of the projected climate change will be limited, while the disadvantages will be predominant. the increased water use efficiency caused by increasing co2 will compensate only partially the negative effects of increasing water limitations. furthermore, in the southern areas the increase in water shortage and extreme weather events (e.g. heat waves, wind speed, etc.) may cause higher yield variability and an increase in abiotic and biotic damages (i.e. wind, fire, pestdisease damages). these negative impacts could be addressed supporting the development and of specific agricultural and forestry adaptive management measures (e.g. agronomic and water conservation practices, modification of microclimate, regular forest management, shorter rotations, etc.) 23
What does the RPA require on a 10-year cycle?
the rpa (1974) requires a national renewable resource assessment to provide reliable information on the status and trends of the nation's renewable resources on a 10-year cycle
What information does the RPA assessment provide?
the rpa assessment provides a snapshot of current u.s. forest and rangeland conditions and trends on all ownerships, identifies drivers of change, and projects 50 years into the future
Which two requirements, with respect to climate change, were added as an amendment to the RPA in 1990?
with respect to climate change, two additional requirements were added as an amendment to the rpa in 1990: (1) an analysis of the potential effects of global climate change on the condition of renewable resources on the forests and rangelands of the united states, and (2) an analysis of rural and urban forestry opportunities to mitigate the buildup of atmospheric carbon dioxide and reduce the risk of global climate change
the rpa (1974) requires a national renewable resource assessment to provide reliable information on the status and trends of the nation's renewable resources on a 10-year cycle. the rpa assessment provides a snapshot of current u.s. forest and rangeland conditions and trends on all ownerships, identifies drivers of change, and projects 50 years into the future. analyses of the status and trends for recreation, water, timber, wildlife (biodiversity) and range resources as well as land use change and urban forestry are included. with respect to climate change, two additional requirements were added as an amendment to the rpa in 1990: (1) an analysis of the potential effects of global climate change on the condition of renewable resources on the forests and rangelands of the united states, and (2) an analysis of rural and urban forestry opportunities to mitigate the buildup of atmospheric carbon dioxide and reduce the risk of global climate change.
Which regions boost positive economic effects of forestry changes?
regions like the usa and europe boost positive economic effects of forestry changes
Which country is not affected by climate change induced negative impacts  regarding water resources?.
climate change induces negative impacts to all world regions except china regarding water resources
This generates negative economic impacts. What?
the energy demand for space heating is reduced in most of the world regions so that positive impacts in terms of gdp are induced. contrarily, space heating for cooling increases due to increased temperature changes. this generates negative economic impacts
europe and russia and latin south america. regions like the usa and europe boost positive economic effects of forestry changes. on the other hand, climate change induces negative impacts to all world regions except china regarding water resources. the energy demand for space heating is reduced in most of the world regions so that positive impacts in terms of gdp are induced. contrarily, space heating for cooling increases due to increased temperature changes. this generates negative economic impacts. emissions reduction as assumed in the latest climate change negotiations22could lead to fewer negative economic impacts. however, these effects are only marginal until 2050. to deal with uncertainty as mentioned in the previous part of this article, we calculate sensitivity scenarios using parameter variation. sensitivity calculations show that
What percentage of US residents live within 20 miles of a major airport?
70% of us residents live within 20 miles of a major airport
What has aircraft pollution been implicated in?
aircraft pollution has been implicated in higher rates of child mortality, premature deaths and cancer deaths in a number of reputable studies
How many people, per year, is air pollution estimated to kill in the UK?
in the uk, air pollution, including that from aircraft and the surface traffic pollution associated with airports, is estimated to kill up to 24 000 people every year and requires medical treatment for thousands more
the size of this problem is emphasized by the fact that today 70% of us residents live within 20 miles of a major airport. in the uk the figures for people living within 30 miles of the four london airports must be fairly similar. aircraft pollution has been implicated in higher rates of child mortality, premature deaths and cancer deaths in a number of reputable studies. 23 in the uk, air pollution, including that from aircraft and the surface traffic pollution associated with airports, is estimated to kill up to 24 000 people every year and requires medical treatment for thousands more. the health costs of air pollution from the uk aviation sector are estimated at more than ps 1.3 billion a year. 24 as with vehicular air pollution, the impacts of this pollution will be accelerated with the higher temperatures that are associated with global warming. the traditional view that aviation is a ' sacred cow ' and should not be restricted by legislation because it may slow down global economies, is now being questioned, as is the need for more and more airports and air travel, which seems dependent also on oil prices remaining at their current costs. what is sure is that increasingly warm summers will affect the air quality and in turn the quality of life of millions of citizens in britain as the weather becomes hotter. some engineers argue that issues of air quality from transport, industrial and acid rain pollution are a good reason to use air conditioning in buildings, but the most damaging of the fine particulates in air pollution are too small to be removed by air conditioning filters, so invalidating this solution (more of which in chapter 11). those who are interested in locating sources of air pollution in relation to a particular site in england or wales can enter a postcode on the ' what's in your backyard ' feature on the your environment page of the environment agency website; it will also show where pollution is being emitted from industrial sites and landfill sites. 25
What did the TRMM mean annual precipitation data reveal?
the trmm mean annual precipitation data reveal a decrease in precipitation in the late 1990s, and non-linear smoothing reveals a positive trend from 2000 to 2005, followed by a negative trend (fig. 8d
In which span of years did the highest annual accumulation of precipitation occur?
the highest annual accumulation occurs from 2003 to 2006
What does this annual precipitation and decreasing summer temperatures indicate for Baltoro Glacier?
collectively, increases in annual precipitation and decreasing summer temperatures indicate that baltoro glacier is accumulating more mass at higher altitudes
the trmm mean annual precipitation data reveal a decrease in precipitation in the late 1990s, and non-linear smoothing reveals a positive trend from 2000 to 2005, followed by a negative trend (fig. 8d). the highest annual accumulation occurs from 2003 to 2006. consequently, the region experiences increases in precipitation during different time frames, due to variations in the influence and magnitude of the westerlies and the summer monsoon. collectively, increases in annual precipitation and decreasing summer temperatures indicate that baltoro glacier is accumulating more mass at higher altitudes. it is important to note, however, that the region lacks direct mass-balance data, and that the spatio-temporal variations in ablation and snow accumulation are highly governed by multi-scale topographic influences.
What does the above paragraph discuss?
research has discussed these programs in relation to climate change policy, and these policies have been evaluated individually
Perspectives of the state policy adoption theory?
i lay out my approach with a discussion of my modeling choice and the measurement of the two dependent variables employed by the models. third, i detail specific testable hypotheses in the context of state climate change policy, as well as the measurement of the independent variables used to test these hypotheses
What does the research discuss?
research has discussed these programs in relation to climate change policy, and these policies have been evaluated individually. this paper quantitatively assesses motivations for adoption of energy policies and climate change programs. while rps have been evaluated qualitatively, they have not been evaluated quantitatively with respect to motivations for adoption or effectiveness
while this is not a complete overview of the literature regarding renewable energy and energy efficiency programs, it demonstrates the type of research that has been conducted regarding energy efficiency and renewable energy programs. research has discussed these programs in relation to climate change policy, and these policies have been evaluated individually. this paper quantitatively assesses motivations for adoption of energy policies and climate change programs. while rps have been evaluated qualitatively, they have not been evaluated quantitatively with respect to motivations for adoption or effectiveness. approach and theory in this section, i briefly discuss the two major perspectives for state policy adoption theory. after this review, i lay out my approach with a discussion of my modeling choice and the measurement of the two dependent variables employed by the models. third, i detail specific testable hypotheses in the context of state climate change policy, as well as the measurement of the independent variables used to test these hypotheses.
What is the mean discount rate over the next century implied in the Review?
2.1% p.a.34
Why did Nordhaus (2006) attack the Review's parameter choices?
for failing to be 'consistent with today's market place
What did many critics of the Review's consumption discount rate emphasized?
that it falls well below observed market rates of interest, or that its parameter values are less than those estimated on the basis of independent empirical observations or experiments designed to estimate the public's preferences concerning the two ethical parameters discussed above
many critics of the review's consumption discount rate have emphasised that it falls well below observed market rates of interest, or that its parameter values are less than those estimated on the basis of independent empirical observations or experiments designed to estimate the public's preferences concerning the two ethical parameters discussed above.33for instance, nordhaus (2006) attacks the review's parameter choices for failing to be 'consistent with today's market place' and dasgupta (2006) and weitzman (2007) make equivalent points. the basis for these criticisms is not hard to understand. the mean discount rate over the next century implied in the review is 2.1% p.a.34
Amphibians were collected where?
at the srs in aiken and barnwell counties, south carolina
. Chytridiomycosis has been reported predominantly from
ufonids and ranids in the united states during winter and spring die-offs
Tissue samples were selected to ?
maximize the chance of finding chytridiomycosis, which primarily affects the ventrum (groin and drink patch) and digits
amphibians were collected at the srs in aiken and barnwell counties, south carolina, and deposited in the georgia museum of natural history (ugmnh) between 1940 and 2001 (table 1). chytridiomycosis has been reported predominantly from bufonids and ranids in the united states during winter and spring die-offs (daszak et al. 2003). therefore, to test for the presence of chytridiomycosis within the stable amphibian populations at srs, we optimized the chance of finding positive samples by surveying specimens of ranid, hylid, microhylid, pelobatid, and bufonid species collected during the coolest months of the year (september to april). tissue samples were selected to maximize the chance of finding chytridiomycosis, which primarily affects the ventrum (groin and drink patch) and digits. three toes, the webbing between them, groin skin, and ventral thigh skin from each frog were collected and processed for histology. most individuals deposited in the ugmnh had originally been fixed in neutral-buffered 10% formalin, and then placed in 70% alcohol or equivalent for long-term storage. tissue samples for our study were placed in formalin for 24 h, washed in 0.1 mol/l phosphate buffer overnight, dehydrated in a graded series of increasingly concentrated ethanol solutions, embedded in paraffin wax, sectioned at 4-m thickness, stained with haematoxylin and eosin, and examined on a light microscope for evidence of
What does respect for diversity consist of?
cultural awareness, appreciation, and respect for all
What does a cultivates culturally classroom do?
encourage student interests and autonomy, provide students opportunities for decision-making, and show appreciation for student opinions
Strong community is a partnership of?
parental involvement in school, communicating with teachers and other personnel, and attending events like parent-teacher conferences or school performances
respect for diversity refers to the presence of cultural awareness, appreciation, and respect for all (chang and le 2010 esposito 1999 juvonen et al. 2006 ). a school that exemplifies respect for diversity holds all members, regardless of ethnicity, gender, sexual orientation, or religious affiliation, to the same standards and principles (mattison and aber 2007 ). additionally, teachers who cultivate culturally sensitive classrooms are those who encourage student interests and autonomy, provide students opportunities for decision-making, and show appreciation for student opinions (weinstein et al. 2003 ). c ommunity partnership refers to the role that parents and other community members play in the school setting. a strong community partnership is usually characterized by parental involvement in school, communicating with teachers and other personnel, and attending events like parent-teacher conferences or school performances (hill and taylor 2004 ). a strong school-community partnership is inviting to parents and community members and promotes the development of mentoring programs, business partnerships, and safety patrols that can have a positive effect on student achievement and behavior (epstein et al. 1997 sheldon and epstein 2002a b 2005 ).
What is the name of the software?
software availability name of software: earwig (environment agency rainfall and weather impacts generator
Who is the developer of the software?
developer: school of civil engineering and geosciences, university of newcastle upon tyne, newcastle upon tyne ne1 7ru, uk
What are the hardware and software requirements to run this software?
hardware required: pc. software required: windows 2000 or xp
software availability name of software: earwig (environment agency rainfall and weather impacts generator). developer: school of civil engineering and geosciences, university of newcastle upon tyne, newcastle upon tyne ne1 7ru, uk. contact: chris kilsby, school of civil engineering and geosciences, university of newcastle upon tyne, newcastle upon tyne ne1 7ru, uk. e-mail address: c.g.kilsby@ncl.ac.uk year first available: 2006. hardware required: pc. software required: windows 2000 or xp. program language: fortran numerics: interface developed under ms visual studio. program size: 30 mb of disk space required: runs within 60 mb of memory. availability: can be made available to researchers on request to the authors. cost: n/a. 1. impact assessments of climate change on hydrology and related fields such as agricultural and water management practice require time series of weather variables for specific catchments or locations at daily or higher resolution. data are needed for both the current climate and a range of future possible scenarios. these series must be consistent, both between variables, and with a range of observed and projected
According to the author, what is the problem in cities during times of crisis or if the population increases?
the problem in cities is that there are so many people to evacuate, at times of crisis, that sheer numbers become the problem, particularly when urban neighbourhoods are already overcrowded. in london it may be possible to cope with 300 extra commuters every morning at rush hour on the existing tube system, but if the local population increases by perhaps 2000, or even 10 000 people from a couple of new tower blocks on a street (100 - 200 people a floor on 50 floors), then transport services may not cope with them even without an emergency
What effects are the result of overpopulation problems?
overpopulation problems result in ' funnelling ' effects, for instance of multiple commuters from district lines converging on single stretches of line at particular hours of the day/week causing gridlock. it is the ' surge ' of moving people that debilitates systems of movement around a city, and before any new buildings are constructed in a city a very detailed study of the carrying capacity of a city, and calculations of the optimal evacuation strategies for every locality, should be undertaken
Other than overpopulation, what is another problem cities face?
the problem is that not only are there too many people in one place but the routes into and out of the city are dysfunctional. the mathematician nickos salingaros outlined how such movement systems work in his paper on ' urban webs ' 21 salingaros outlined structural principles for
the problem in cities is that there are so many people to evacuate, at times of crisis, that sheer numbers become the problem, particularly when urban neighbourhoods are already overcrowded. in london it may be possible to cope with 300 extra commuters every morning at rush hour on the existing tube system, but if the local population increases by perhaps 2000, or even 10 000 people from a couple of new tower blocks on a street (100 - 200 people a floor on 50 floors), then transport services may not cope with them even without an emergency. this problem was seen in the world trade center, where the capacity population of the twin towers was around 20 000 people, and although less than half full, there was a significant problem with getting the people away from the towers, one of which collapsed within three-quarters of an hour. in the crowded city of shanghai a new generation of super scrapers was planned to house up to 100 000 people. this is a city prone to floods and typhoons, sitting as it does at the tip of the yangtze river, and as its mayor has admitted, it is badly prepared for any such emergencies 20 and could be struck by widespread flooding at any time, although it is hoped that the three gorges dam upstream will significantly reduce the risk to this burgeoning city from fluvial flooding in the future. one problem is that the dam will reduce the amount of silt flowing through the delta into the sea. this silt has always been a defence against cyclones hitting the city and if it is not replenished, the city may be in greater danger of coastal flooding. overpopulation problems result in ' funnelling ' effects, for instance of multiple commuters from district lines converging on single stretches of line at particular hours of the day/week causing gridlock. it is the ' surge ' of moving people that debilitates systems of movement around a city, and before any new buildings are constructed in a city a very detailed study of the carrying capacity of a city, and calculations of the optimal evacuation strategies for every locality, should be undertaken. the problem is that not only are there too many people in one place but the routes into and out of the city are dysfunctional. the mathematician nickos salingaros outlined how such movement systems work in his paper on ' urban webs ' 21 salingaros outlined structural principles for
What are two processes that tree ring d13C values depend on?
tree ring d13c values depend on diffusion and biochemical processes during photosynthetic co2 assimilation
What represents the sites participating with the highest loadings?
dots are sites participating with highest loadings
What Season climate conditions were the similarities in responses of d13C and d18O networks found in?
summer climate conditions are found
despite different sources and fractionation processes driving c and o isotope values in tree rings, surprisingly strong similarities in the response of d13c and d18o networks to summer climate conditions are found. tree ring d13c values depend on diffusion and biochemical processes during photosynthetic co2 assimilation, with fractionation effects occurring through the diffusion of co2 into the stomata and through enzymatic processes during carbon fixation by rubisco farquhar et al. 1982]. d18o values figure 2. maps of loadings of site chronologies on varimax-rotated principal components, for the first four of five retained d18o chronology factors (rpc1-4) and corresponding spatial correlation fields for temperature (t), precipitation (p), and pdsi. dots are sites participating with highest loadings at the corresponding rpcs (time series shown top). correlations were calculated with seasonal means of june-august (jja), if not noted differently jas july to september, mjj may to june). all calculations are based on the 1901-1998 common period.
What is one of the few cost-benefit analyses of climate change to come out in favor of immediate and decisive action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions?
the stern review on the economics of climate change
What would justify spending a large amount of scarce resources for the purpose of limiting climate change?
in order to justify spending a large amount of scarce resources for the purpose of limiting climate change it is necessary to move beyond the discounting debate
What did the Stern Review fail to do?
unfortunately, the review did not develop a persuasive argument for why climate change threatens to inflict upon future generations irreversible and non-substitutable damage to and loss of natural capital
the stern review on the economics of climate change is one of the few cost-benefit analyses of climate change to come out in favour of immediate and decisive action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. the choice of a low discount rate is the main reason for the review's divergence in conclusions compared to other economic studies. i argue that the review's ethical reasons for a low discount rate are defendable, but unlikely to find wider public support. in order to justify spending a large amount of scarce resources for the purpose of limiting climate change it is necessary to move beyond the discounting debate. unfortunately, the review did not develop a persuasive argument for why climate change threatens to inflict upon future generations irreversible and non-substitutable damage to and loss of natural capital. this represents a missed opportunity as it would have provided a much more compelling case for drastic action than the review's arguments for a low discount rate.
Who is the mean age of air at 60deg influenced by?
the mean age of air at 60deg is in fl uenced both by descent of older air (during fall and winter) and by horizontal mixing with mid-latitude (younger) air at a latitude that is generally outside the vortex
What does the observations used to derive the 60degNean?
the observations used to derive the 60degn mean age were collected in all seasons and refl ect both of these transport processes
What happen between april and october ?
the 60degs mean age was derived from observations between april and october, and thus has less in fl uence from younger, low latitude air
the mean age of air at 60deg is in fl uenced both by descent of older air (during fall and winter) and by horizontal mixing with mid-latitude (younger) air at a latitude that is generally outside the vortex. the observations used to derive the 60degn mean age were collected in all seasons and refl ect both of these transport processes. the 60degs mean age was derived from observations between april and october, and thus has less in fl uence from younger, low latitude air. the diagnostic is based on the mean ages and uncertainties from andrews et al. (2001), and model mean ages are averaged over 55deg-65deg in each hemisphere. low mean age chapter 5: transport 170
When were the Event History Analysis Model Data collected for the first time ?
event history analysis model data for the event history analysis model were collected beginning in 1997
What does event history analysis model explain?
this model explains the likelihood that a state will adopt an rps in a given year
What happens once a state adopts a policy?
once a state adopts a policy, it drops out of the data set
event history analysis model data for the event history analysis model were collected beginning in 1997, which coincides with the first adoption of a rps by massachusetts (though it did not go into effect until 2001). this model explains the likelihood that a state will adopt an rps in a given year. in addition to the explanatory variables representing state characteristics, a variable was coded explaining the percentage of states that share a border with each state that had adopted an rps in that year or earlier. data have not been released past 2005 for many of the explanatory variables of the states. for this model, the adoption of an rps standard in each state is coded as a "1" for the year of adoption and "0" if the rps standard has not been adopted. once a state adopts a policy, it drops out of the data set. this coding indicates that a particular policy can only be adopted once for each state (although it can be renewed or strengthened). it is estimated with a probit model as each state has a probability of adopting a rps, given the characteristics of the state. this process assumes that at any given time after 1997 states are considering the possibility of adopting a rps and will adopt it once a certain threshold is exceeded. this model can be described as:
The Dillondale terrace has been modified?
the dillondale terrace has been significantly modified from its original
loess stratigraphy and chronology the terraces in the charwell basin are mantled with increasing thicknesses of loess with increasingly complex stratigraphy from the stone jug to the dillondale terrace (fig. 5). the dillondale terrace has been significantly modified from its original constructional form by dissection and drainage network elaboration. addition of loess to this evolving landform has resulted in redistribution of primary loess by soil transport processes. the thickness and stratigraphy of the loess mantle on flat interfluves and broad plateaux, however, are thought to represent a complete record. the surface on the quail downs valley fill retains none of its original constructional form, having evolved a ridge and valley morphology, and loess is absent.
Where does the region is ?
this region is under the strong aridifying influence of the cold benguela current and is positioned in the latitudinal zone of stable descending air of the hadley cell, limiting convectional rainfall throughout much of the country's interior
Explain about  Namibian climate ranges ?
namibian climate ranges from arid and semiarid in the west, with a temperate, regionally fog-bound coastal desert, to more subtropical summer-rainfall conditions in the northeast
Explain region of Namibia ?
in relation to the rest of southern africa, namibia represents a low rainfall extreme and experiences intermediate to warm temperatures and high potential evapotranspiration. regardless of these climatic constraints, namibia is home to a remarkable biodiversity, notably among its plant species. within its borders, more than 4500 plant taxa have been recorded, almost 700 of which are endemic to the country, and a further 275 of which are namib desert endemics shared with southern angola (maggs et al ., 1998
this region is under the strong aridifying influence of the cold benguela current and is positioned in the latitudinal zone of stable descending air of the hadley cell, limiting convectional rainfall throughout much of the country's interior. namibian climate ranges from arid and semiarid in the west, with a temperate, regionally fog-bound coastal desert, to more subtropical summer-rainfall conditions in the northeast. the central, southern and coastal areas are among the most arid landscapes south of the sahara. in relation to the rest of southern africa, namibia represents a low rainfall extreme and experiences intermediate to warm temperatures and high potential evapotranspiration. regardless of these climatic constraints, namibia is home to a remarkable biodiversity, notably among its plant species. within its borders, more than 4500 plant taxa have been recorded, almost 700 of which are endemic to the country, and a further 275 of which are namib desert endemics shared with southern angola (maggs et al ., 1998). plant species endemism is concentrated in five centers, the kaokoveld in the north, the otavi highland in the kalahari basin in the east, the okavango region in the northeast, the auas mountains on the western edge of the central plateau and the succulent-rich southern namib desert (maggs et al ., 1994). this variety of plant species in namibia makes up a broad range of ecosystem types ranging from desert landscapes with sparse plant cover on the western coastal belt with high succulent dominance in the southwest, through arid shrubland and sparse woodland with c4 photosynthetic pathway species along the escarpment, to tree-shrub mixed savanna and woodland vegetation in areas of higher rainfall in the northeastern kalahari basin. various categorizations of namibian vegetation types have been proposed. these can be summarized most simply as a set of four biomes based on plant life-form dominance (irish, 1994), namely the ephemeral therophyte-dominated desert, succulent-shrub-dominated succulent karoo, c4 grass and shrub codominated nama karoo, and tree and shrub codominated savanna.
Who are all required in disaster period?
it may require an ideological shift in policy-makers, donors and their constituencies toward precautionary action rather than high-profile disaster relief
Who is explain the disaster? Given the example
luna (2001) reports on disaster work in the philippines where, for example, it is difficult for ngos to obtain funds for capacity building and preparedness compared to emergency relief - the need is less visible, and the impact of the work is less easy to measure
Which organization help to health threats?
who
recommendations are not enough. putting good ideas into practice requires in many cases strong political will and financial support. it may require an ideological shift in policy-makers, donors and their constituencies toward precautionary action rather than high-profile disaster relief. at present, it is not always easy to attract funding for such activities. luna (2001) reports on disaster work in the philippines where, for example, it is difficult for ngos to obtain funds for capacity building and preparedness compared to emergency relief - the need is less visible, and the impact of the work is less easy to measure. greater resources are required, not just for health-related preparedness, but also for post-flood phases. donor response to flood disasters, for example, often fails to continue sufficiently into the recovery period to address long term health outcomes or rehabilitation of health infrastructure and services. however, there are limits to available funds and the work of organisations such as who may become stretched across a range of new health threats associated with
What do integrated water resources systems aim at? Aim to manage water for various uses
integrated water resource systems aim to manage water for various uses
Where have integrated water resources systems been implemented? They have been implemented in some river basins in Europe, North America and Australia
and have been implemented in some catchments in europe, north america, and australia
How important is the reform of existing water management institutions and the creation of new authorities? will be important to allow integrated control of increasingly scarce water resources
reforming existing water management institutions and creating new authorities will be important to allow for integrated control of increasingly scarce water resources
integrated water resource systems aim to manage water for various uses including agriculture, industry, domestic consumption, and the environment, and have been implemented in some catchments in europe, north america, and australia. managing competing demands for water from various sectors will become more contentious under conditions of water scarcity and drought that are likely to increase under climate change. reforming existing water management institutions and creating new authorities will be important to allow for integrated control of increasingly scarce water resources, especially in planning for, and managing, drought, and, where appropriate, in encouraging transitions to forms of agriculture and industry with low water requirements. water utilities and regulators need to incorporate climate change predictions and uncertainties when planning and managing water resources and operations, including planning for resilience to drought and fl oods. disaster management planning will also be required to ensure rapid and coordinated responses to fl oods and
Climate change and land degradation result in decreasing yields and crop failures where?
climate change and land degradation result in decreasing yields and crop failures in northern ghana and have caused further impoverishment of ghana ' s poorest region
How did farmers intensify their production?
while traditionally a diversification of the production and migration were the prime means of adaptation, many farmers have started to intensify their production by adopting shallow groundwater irrigation for vegetable gardening for ghana ' s urban markets
It is double exposure to what?
it is this double exposure to global environmental change and economic globalization that need to be taken into consideration when local adaptive capacities are discussed
climate change and land degradation result in decreasing yields and crop failures in northern ghana and have caused further impoverishment of ghana ' s poorest region. farmers have diversified their livelihoods to adapt to uncertain environmental conditions in various ways. while traditionally a diversification of the production and migration were the prime means of adaptation, many farmers have started to intensify their production by adopting shallow groundwater irrigation for vegetable gardening for ghana ' s urban markets. this has helped to cope with a changing environment, ameliorated poverty and reversed rural - urban migration, while the local hydrology curbed an over-exploitation of groundwater resources, commonly associated with an uncontrolled farmer-driven expansion of groundwater irrigation. this research confirms that farmer-driven small-scale irrigation can play an important role in the process of climate change adaptation. however, while farmers tried to integrate in the larger economy, they have become subject to market failures that in their essence are caused by unfair and unpredictable patterns of global trade. it is this double exposure to global environmental change and economic globalization that need to be taken into consideration when local adaptive capacities are discussed. many convincing arguments call for the revision of some of the most unfair and devastating economic practices; however, the need to enhance adaptive capacity towards global climate change for poor parts of the population in the south should be added to the discussion. 1 environmental change and economic globalisation exert an increasingly high degree of pressure on the agricultural livelihoods of small-scale farmers in west africa. factors such as land
Which departments are listed in Germany?
university of konstanz, konstanz, germany j department of aquatic food webs
department of ecology and evolution, stony brook university, stony brook, new york e department of biology, university of oslo, oslo, norway f cooperative freshwater ecology unit, ontario ministry of the environment, laurentian university, sudbury, ontario, canada gswiss federal institute of aquatic science and technology (eawag), du"bendorf, switzerland hlaboratory of aquatic photobiology and plankton ecology, institute of ecology, university of innsbruck, innsbruck, austria i limnological institute, university of konstanz, konstanz, germany j department of aquatic food webs, netherlands institute of ecology, centre for limnology, nieuwersluis, the netherlands kdepartment of aquatic sciences and assessment, swedish university of agricultural sciences, and department of ecology and evolution, uppsala university, uppsala, sweden
What was predicted according to the consistency of many models?
consistent with a growing number of models about affect and behaviour and with a recognition that perception alone provides no impetus for action, it was predicted that associations between company climate and productivity would be mediated by average level of job satisfaction
What did an overall analysis show?
an overall analysis showed that company productivity was more strongly correlated with those aspects of climate that had stronger satisfaction loadings
What was the conclusion of a second prediction?
a second prediction, that managers' perceptions of climate would be more closely linked to company productivity than would those of non-managers, was not supported
consistent with a growing number of models about affect and behaviour and with a recognition that perception alone provides no impetus for action, it was predicted that associations between company climate and productivity would be mediated by average level of job satisfaction. in a study of 42 manufacturing companies, subsequent productivity was significantly correlated in controlled analyses with eight aspects of organizational climate (e.g. skill development and concern for employee welfare) and also with average job satisfaction. the mediation hypothesis was supported in hierarchical multiple regressions for separate aspects of climate. in addition, an overall analysis showed that company productivity was more strongly correlated with those aspects of climate that had stronger satisfaction loadings. a second prediction, that managers' perceptions of climate would be more closely linked to company productivity than would those of non-managers, was not supported. however, managers' assessments of most aspects of their company's climate were significantly more positive than those of non-managers. jel classifications: m11; m12; j5; j24 keywords: organizational structure, organizational climate, employee welfare, manager, productivity. this paper was produced as part of the centre's labour markets programme. the centre for economic performance is financed by the economic and social research council. acknowledgements malcolm patterson is a research fellow at the institute of work psychology, university of sheffield. email: m.patterson@sheffield.ac.uk peter warr is emeritus professor at the institute of work psychology, university of sheffield. michael a. west is a member of the centre for economic performance, london school of economics. he is also professor of organizational psychology and director of research at aston business school, birmingham. published by centre for economic performance london school of economics and political science houghton street london wc2a 2ae all rights reserved. no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means without the prior permission in writing of the publisher nor be issued to the public or circulated in any form other than that in which it is published. requests for permission to reproduce any article or part of the working paper should be sent to the editor at the above address.  m. patterson, p. warr and m. west, submitted 2004 isbn 0 7530 1751 2
What does GCM stand for?
earlier general circulation model (gcm) experiments showed that the global-mean radiative forcing could be used to predict
True or False, More recent experiments indicate that for changes in absorbing aerosols and ozone, the predictive ability of radiative forcing is much better?
more recent experiments indicate that for changes in absorbing aerosols and ozone, the predictive ability of radiative forcing is much worse
What is widely used to measure the relative efficacy of climate change mechanisms?
radiative forcing is widely used to measure the relative efficacy of climate change mechanisms
radiative forcing is widely used to measure the relative efficacy of climate change mechanisms. earlier general circulation model (gcm) experiments showed that the global-mean radiative forcing could be used to predict, with useful accuracy, the consequent global-mean surface temperature change regardless of whether the forcing was due to, for example, changes in greenhouse gases or solar output. more recent experiments indicate that for changes in absorbing aerosols and ozone, the predictive ability of radiative forcing is much worse. building on a suggestion from hansen and co-workers, we propose an alternative, the "adjusted troposphere and stratosphere forcing". we present gcm calculations showing that it is a significantly more reliable predictor of this gcm's surface temperature change than radiative forcing. it is a candidate to supplement radiative forcing as a metric for comparing different mechanisms and provides a framework for understanding the circumstances in which radiative forcing is less reliable. index terms: 1610 global change: atmosphere (0315, 0325); 1620 global change: climate dynamics (3309). citation: shine, k.p. et al., an alternative to radiative forcing for estimating the relative importance of climate change mechanisms. geophys.res.lett. (submitted)
What is the reference chapter for "EP-Flux"?
ep-flux" see andrews et al. 1987, chapter 3
the stationary wave fi eld, i.e. the time mean zonally asymmetric part of the circulation, is a key dynamical quantity that contributes signi fi cantly to the fl ux of wave activity ("ep-flux" see andrews et al. 1987, chapter 3) from the troposphere to the stratosphere and to the driving of the brewer-dobson circulation. the stationary wave fi eld can be used to characterize the vertical and meridional structure of zonal asymmetries, the shape and position of the polar vortex, and long-term trends in the zonally asymmetric fl ow. the climatological stationary wave fi eld, i.e. the zonally asymmetric part of the climatological
Describe the basic procedures for CSA?
disciplinary, interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary scientific approaches play a fundamental and profound role in developing understanding of the processes underlying csa and serve as partners in enumerating priorities for csa. they form a crucial element in the knowledge base needed to implement csa actions and manifest future transformative changes in agriculture in a changing climate
Summarize the important element of CSA activities?
they form a crucial element in the knowledge base needed to implement csa actions and manifest future transformative changes in agriculture in a changing climate. global science conferences on csa have already been influential in assembling scientists and other stakeholders to share knowledge [17,49]. a third conference in montpellier, france, is planned for 2015 with the following agenda items: discussion key scenarios in agriculture and food systems, identifying priorities for early action and designing a roadmap for moving forward with an action plan. these objectives set the stage for a much stronger emphasis on knowledge-to-action frameworks, capacity-building and the changes in human behaviour and social infrastructure that are necessary for adaptation and resilience [133,152,293
Describe the science in the database for the CSA Alliance?
the momentum that has already built among the science community for csa forms the foundation for critical engagement by more researchers in fundamental and applied studies. to this end, establishing a more formal governance mechanism to embed science in the information base for the csa alliance, would be a vital step in developing priorities, scientific engagement and funding to support the knowledge needed for policymaking decisions
disciplinary, interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary scientific approaches play a fundamental and profound role in developing understanding of the processes underlying csa and serve as partners in enumerating priorities for csa. they form a crucial element in the knowledge base needed to implement csa actions and manifest future transformative changes in agriculture in a changing climate. global science conferences on csa have already been influential in assembling scientists and other stakeholders to share knowledge [17,49]. a third conference in montpellier, france, is planned for 2015 with the following agenda items: discussion key scenarios in agriculture and food systems, identifying priorities for early action and designing a roadmap for moving forward with an action plan. these objectives set the stage for a much stronger emphasis on knowledge-to-action frameworks, capacity-building and the changes in human behaviour and social infrastructure that are necessary for adaptation and resilience [133,152,293]. the momentum that has already built among the science community for csa forms the foundation for critical engagement by more researchers in fundamental and applied studies. to this end, establishing a more formal governance mechanism to embed science in the information base for the csa alliance, would be a vital step in developing priorities, scientific engagement and funding to support the knowledge needed for policymaking decisions.
What are the legitimate grounds for shifting costs to wealthier generations?
inequalities
by including discounting over time as well as negishi weights, welfare optimizing iams accept the diminishing marginal utility of income for intergenerational choices, but reject the same principle in the contemporary, interregional context. some justification is required if different rules are to be applied in optimizing welfare across space than those used when optimizing welfare across time. at the very least, a climate-economics model's ethical implications should be transparent to the end users of its analyses. while ethical concerns surrounding discounting have achieved some attention in policy circles, the highly technical but ethically crucial negishi weights are virtually unknown outside the rarified habitat of modelers and welfare economists. the negishi procedure conceals one strong, controversial assumption about welfare maximization, namely that existing regional inequalities are not legitimate grounds for shifting costs to wealthier regions, but inequalities across time are legitimate grounds for shifting costs to wealthier generations. other assumptions, needless to say, could be considered.
If the available number of model versions is large then we can?
hope to extract such ranges, or domains, for combined behaviour in multiple variables
We refer to such a domain as a?
non-discountable' climate change envelope
if the available number of model versions is large then we can hope to extract such ranges, or domains, for combined behaviour in multiple variables. we refer to such a domain as a 'non-discountable' climate change envelope. non-discountable highlights that we should not disregard the possibility that the response could be anywhere within the envelope. no claim is made about the possibility of a response outside the envelope; it is not 'discountable', it is simply a region for which we have no data. the envelope provides the prospect of evaluating ranges for real-world vulnerabilities which usually have dependencies on a number of climatic variables hulme brown 1998 ). figure 1 shows the range of combined behaviour in mean regional precipitation and mean regional temperature for northern european autumn and east african spring, from the climate prediction .net ensemble analysed in stainforth et al (2005) this ensemble consists of 408 versions of a complex climate model with a slab ocean; data is available as means over years 7-15 after the start of simulations with both pre-industrial (control) and double pre-industrial (2 co2) atmospheric co2 concentrations. in most cases, the value for each model version is the mean over an initial condition ensemble stainforth et al 2005 ). the same quality control procedures as in the earlier work were
We primarily rely on monthly climate data for ?
the 1961-90 normal period generated by prism
What company generate this infor in the 60-90's
prism
However, we found that the pattern of temperature inversion in some areas in the northern part of the what?
in winter was not well predicted by prism
we primarily rely on monthly climate data for the 1961-90 normal period generated by prism (daly et al. 2002) for our reference climate grid (2.5 arc min). the prism data were developed using an approach that incorporates weather station data, a digital elevation model, and expert knowledge of climate patterns such as rain shadows, coastal effects, orographic lift, and temperature inversions over topographically delineated ''facets'' (daly et al. 2002). prism data have clear advantages over other products in reflecting these effects. however, we found that the pattern of temperature inversion in some areas in the northern part of the prairies in winter was not well predicted by prism. also, prism
What does the work by Neale et al. [2008] demonstrate?
it is worthwhile to point out that recent work by neale et al. [2008] demonstrates that the shortcomings in the ccsm3 enso are solely due to missing physics in the cam3 convection scheme
According to suppositions, what is due to the significantly lower amplitude in LOWVISC?
one can speculate that the significantly lower amplitude in lowvisc is due to the warmer equatorial cold tongue, which reduces the zonal sst gradient and therefore the size of the enso induced anomalies
What is the general finding of this study?
this general finding that an improved representation of the ocean leads to only minor improvements in the overlying atmosphere is consistent with had. the analysis presented so far shows that the drawbacks of reducing ocean viscosity are rather minor
nosmag and 0.63 for lowvisc. one can speculate that the significantly lower amplitude in lowvisc is due to the warmer equatorial cold tongue, which reduces the zonal sst gradient and therefore the size of the enso induced anomalies. however, enso is rather unrealistic in all three experiments, so that the reason for this weakening will not be investigated further. it is worthwhile to point out that recent work by neale et al. [2008] demonstrates that the shortcomings in the ccsm3 enso are solely due to missing physics in the cam3 convection scheme. in general, the changes in precipitation, winds, and sea level pressure induced by a change in ocean viscosity are small, especially if compared with current biases. the exceptions are locally confined and tied to the changes in the western boundary currents like the kuroshio, gulf stream, and agulhas retroflection. the changes in the midlatitude north pacific will be discussed in section 7 as an example for western boundary regimes. this general finding that an improved representation of the ocean leads to only minor improvements in the overlying atmosphere is consistent with had. the analysis presented so far shows that the drawbacks of reducing ocean viscosity are rather minor. the following sections illustrate that there are key aspects of the ocean model solution where reducing viscosity leads to major improvements: equatorial pacific (section 4), acc (section 5), arctic ocean (section 6), kuroshio (section 7) and labrador sea (section 8).
Where do the greatest SST errors in the coupled models occur?
at midlatitudes
What is Absorbed shortwave defined as?
downward minus upward shortwave radiation and is shown here for the top of the atmosphere
What do errors in outgoing longwave radiation primarily reflect?
the precipitation biases
the greatest sst errors in the coupled models occur at midlatitudes. we believe that these errors result from biases in the absorbed shortwave field that are present in atmosphere-only integrations with observed ssts, and in this section we perform more analysis of these errors. we do not discuss errors in outgoing longwave radiation, which primarily reflect the precipitation biases discussed below. the biases in the absorption of shortwave radiation (asw) in the climate system are shown in fig. 15. (absorbed shortwave is defined as downward minus upward shortwave radiation and is shown here for the top of the atmosphere.) the middle two panels show results from cm2.0 and cm2.1, respectively. the bottom two panels show results from am2.0/lm2.0 and am2.1/
What is the projection to the annual decline of the rainfall?
annual rainfall is projected to decline in the south-west of australia in the range of -20 to +5 per cent by 2030, and -60 to +10 per cent by 2070, while in the south-east changes of -10 to +5 per cent by 2030 and -35 to +10 per cent by 2070 are projected
What the increase or decrease in rainfall in other parts of northern and eastern Australia depends on?
in other parts of northern and eastern australia increases or decreases in rainfall are possible, depending on locality
What is the condition for a general decrease in available soil moisture across Australia?
when rainfall changes are combined with increases in potential evaporation
annual rainfall is projected to decline in the south-west of australia in the range of -20 to +5 per cent by 2030, and -60 to +10 per cent by 2070, while in the south-east changes of -10 to +5 per cent by 2030 and -35 to +10 per cent by 2070 are projected. in other parts of northern and eastern australia increases or decreases in rainfall are possible, depending on locality. however, when rainfall changes are combined with increases in potential evaporation, a general decrease in available soil moisture is projected across australia, with droughts likely to become more severe. downside risk in agricultural production is projected to increase.
how many bioclimatic variables were taken into consideration initially in order to build models with enough generality to be transferred among time periods?
from an initial set of 11 bioclimatic variables, we selected a subset of independent variables in order to build models with enough generality to be transferred among time periods
How Winnowing is performed?
winnowing was performed in a heuristic manner by first cross-correlating candidate climate variables and identifying those that were highly correlated
what are the  final set of five climate variables used in both the '' Climate th Baseline NPP '' and '' Climate only '' models
he final set of five climate variables, which were used in both the '' climate th baseline npp '' and '' climate only '' models, consisted of the mean annual precipitation, the precipitation of the driest month, temperature seasonality, the mean temperature of the wettest month, and the
from an initial set of 11 bioclimatic variables, we selected a subset of independent variables in order to build models with enough generality to be transferred among time periods. removing highly correlated variables also greatly enhances the ability to interpret each variable ' s effect on fire probabilities. winnowing was performed in a heuristic manner by first cross-correlating candidate climate variables and identifying those that were highly correlated (spearman r 0.8). within each of these groups, we retained variables according to their importance in a maxent model that included all variables. finally, of the subset of variables, those that altered the response of other key variables to fire through interactions were also excluded. the final set of five climate variables, which were used in both the '' climate th baseline npp '' and '' climate only '' models, consisted of the mean annual precipitation, the precipitation of the driest month, temperature seasonality, the mean temperature of the wettest month, and the
What are the basic requirements for health adaptation to climate change?
a fundamental requisite for health adaptation to climate change is to improve monitoring and surveillance of disease and mortality in sensitive regions. in developing countries, disease surveillance systems are inconsistent and poorly managed
What is the effectiveness of health early warning systems?
the eff ectiveness of health early warning systems depends on the past and current disease monitoring and surveillance, and accurate and reliable meteorological and climatic forecasts. health early warning systems are a win-win strategy that reduces the risk of disease whilst increasing adaptive capacity that is most essential in the context of developing countries. in the developing world, no region-specifi c projections of changes in health-related exposures and no research projecting health outcomes under various future emissions and adaptation scenarios compared with many parts of developed countries exist
Describe the public health response to infections?
101 recent reports have highlighted the urgent need for improved surveillance systems and technologies, especially for infectious diseases in developing countries and for increased cooperation between states in the identifi cation and public health response to outbreaks and epidemics.102
a fundamental requisite for health adaptation to climate change is to improve monitoring and surveillance of disease and mortality in sensitive regions. in developing countries, disease surveillance systems are inconsistent and poorly managed. the challenge is to incorporate a strong public health infrastructure and empower communities to achieve eff ective disease surveillance. health early warning systems are especially important in the context of heatstroke, extreme weather events, and disease outbreaks for developing and developed countries. the eff ectiveness of health early warning systems depends on the past and current disease monitoring and surveillance, and accurate and reliable meteorological and climatic forecasts. health early warning systems are a win-win strategy that reduces the risk of disease whilst increasing adaptive capacity that is most essential in the context of developing countries. in the developing world, no region-specifi c projections of changes in health-related exposures and no research projecting health outcomes under various future emissions and adaptation scenarios compared with many parts of developed countries exist.1,101 recent reports have highlighted the urgent need for improved surveillance systems and technologies, especially for infectious diseases in developing countries and for increased cooperation between states in the identifi cation and public health response to outbreaks and epidemics.102
What most analysts and commentators suggest about some climate change scenarios?
they are most likely to be distant events of low probability, unlikely to affect let alone ruin the next few generations of farmers
What the climate change in rural regions of Australia is more likely to produce?
is more likely to produce a diverse set of spatial impacts
Which regions are likely to face a more challenging environment for crop, pasture and animal production?
many traditional agricultural regions
was hanrahan right? will australian farmers be ruined by the cumulative adverse impacts of climate change and its associated variability? although abrupt, catastrophic and largely irreversible events are possible outcomes of some climatic change scenarios, most analysts and commentators suggest they are most likely to be distant events of low probability, unlikely to affect let alone ruin the next few generations of farmers. climate change in rural regions of australia, at least in the next couple of decades, is more likely to produce a diverse set of spatial impacts. many traditional agricultural regions are likely to face a more challenging environment for crop, pasture and animal production. in broadacre farming the prospects are for warmer and drier conditions and an increased likelihood of more extreme events such as drought, fire, excessive summer heat and severe storms. in some regions the
The flammability of the invader might determine what?
a strong change in the flammability of the community
Invasive grasses can create what?
a grass-fire cycle
Invasive plant species can also change what?
fuel structure, and thus fire regimes
invasive plant species have a strong impact on local biodiversity, however, they may also change fuel structure, and thus fire regimes. for instance, fire frequency might be abruptly altered by a rapid climate-independent change in the species composition driven by invasion of a plant species that modifies the intrinsic flammability properties of the fuels (brooks and others 2004 mandle and others 2011 ). the flammability of the invader might determine a strong change in the flammability of the community, and thus fire ignition and spread behavior. there are many examples of invasive species that increase fire frequency because of their high surface-to-volume ratio (alien grass invasion) or because of the high content of flammable compounds (for example, laurus eucalyptus ). there are also examples of low-flammability species invading highly flammable ecosystems (for example, outcompeting flammable grasses), such as the case of alien species with high moisture contents (invasion by succulent species) or with low surfacetovolume ratio and high moisture retention (for example, triadica sebifera invasion of north america prairies). other species are able to switch from surface to crown-fire regimes (some shrubs and vines; for examples of all these types of invasion see brooks and others 2004 mandle and others 2011 and table 1 ). however, many invasive grasses are very flammable and resilient to fire and thus they have fire-promoting capacity. invasive grasses can create a grass-fire cycle where initial invasion promotes further success of fire-promoting grasses climate-independent fire regime
What did the Liberal Left tend to be?
these people tended to be high ses, nonreligious, white, democratic women with egalitarian values and a liberal political orientation
What were they much more likely to do?
they also were much more likely to perceive a high degree of risk associated with environmental and technologic threats, and a low degree of risk associated with moral threats (homosexuality, abortion, and marijuana use
What did the alarmists tend to be?
this interpretive community tended to be religious, low ses, minority women who were politically disaffected
the liberal left (14% of the total sample). these people tended to be high ses, nonreligious, white, democratic women with egalitarian values and a liberal political orientation. they also were much more likely to perceive a high degree of risk associated with environmental and technologic threats, and a low degree of risk associated with moral threats (homosexuality, abortion, and marijuana use). * alarmists (12% of the total sample). this interpretive community tended to be religious, low ses, minority women who were politically disaffected. they perceived a higher than average degree of risk associated with all of the risks assessed (environmental, technologic, national security, and moral). * mainstream americans (37% of the total sample) this segment tended to have a high school education, be politically independent, and hold moderate political views. they tended to perceive all hazards as relatively moderate risks, with the exception of global warming, the iraq war, and terrorism, which they rated as high to very high risks. conversely, two other interpretive communities had relatively low perceptions of risk associated with climate change:
Define climate change?
while the results clearly show the importance and scale of the issue of chinese exports and climate change, it is important to stress the many uncertainties in calculating and allocating such emissions (weber and matthews, 2007
Define output analysis?
input-output analysis itself has many inherent uncertainties related to the calculation and balancing of the actual tables (which are outside the hands of io practitioners), aggregation of unlike products into economic sectors, the assumption of proportionality and linearity, and many others (see lenzen, 2001 for a detailed discussion
Explain imports assumption?
the "imports assumption" is particularly important here, as single region ioa is not able to correctly calculate the emissions embodied in china's imports, only emissions avoided by importing
while the results clearly show the importance and scale of the issue of chinese exports and climate change, it is important to stress the many uncertainties in calculating and allocating such emissions (weber and matthews, 2007). input-output analysis itself has many inherent uncertainties related to the calculation and balancing of the actual tables (which are outside the hands of io practitioners), aggregation of unlike products into economic sectors, the assumption of proportionality and linearity, and many others (see lenzen, 2001 for a detailed discussion). the "imports assumption" is particularly important here, as single region ioa is not able to correctly calculate the emissions embodied in china's imports, only emissions avoided by importing.
Describe an important issue in the environment?
a critical issue in ecology, especially in an age of rapidly changing climate, concerns how environmental variability influences ecosystem processes. in recent years, the match-mismatch hypothesis has been invoked frequently as a mechanism linking climatic variation to trophic perturbations across a range of ecosystem types (visser et al. 1998, anderson piatt 1999, platt et al. 2003, drever clark 2007
Summarize the central theory of match-mismatch hypothesis?
the central tenet of the match-mismatch hypothesis is that predators breed more successfully in years in which the most energetically demanding phase of their breeding cycle overlaps extensively (i.e. 'matches') with the seasonal peak in prey availability
Say high-traffic-level host?
climatic changes are asymmetrically altering the phenologies of species at different trophic levels, causing an increase in the frequency and severity of mismatching between predators and their prey (edwards richardson 2004). because many midto high-trophic-level marine predators, including many species of seabirds, rely heavily on one or a few prey species while breeding
a critical issue in ecology, especially in an age of rapidly changing climate, concerns how environmental variability influences ecosystem processes. in recent years, the match-mismatch hypothesis has been invoked frequently as a mechanism linking climatic variation to trophic perturbations across a range of ecosystem types (visser et al. 1998, anderson piatt 1999, platt et al. 2003, drever clark 2007). the central tenet of the match-mismatch hypothesis is that predators breed more successfully in years in which the most energetically demanding phase of their breeding cycle overlaps extensively (i.e. 'matches') with the seasonal peak in prey availability. in the marine environment, where the match-mismatch hypothesis has its roots (cushing 1990), climatic changes are asymmetrically altering the phenologies of species at different trophic levels, causing an increase in the frequency and severity of mismatching between predators and their prey (edwards richardson 2004). because many midto high-trophic-level marine predators, including many species of seabirds, rely heavily on one or a few prey species while breeding
How will current-day providers be impacted by climate change?
the influence of climate change on extreme heat and electricity demand in california and other similar air-conditioned regions is likely to challenge current-day providers, spur conservation and adaptation measures, and raise questions regarding the potential for mitigation to reduce projected increases through following a lower emissions pathway worldwide
What will be the main effects of climate change in California?
extreme heat and electricity demand
Why would one strive to follow a lower emissions pathway?
to reduce projected increases
in conclusion, the influence of climate change on extreme heat and electricity demand in california and other similar air-conditioned regions is likely to challenge current-day providers, spur conservation and adaptation measures, and raise questions regarding the potential for mitigation to reduce projected increases through following a lower emissions pathway worldwide. acknowledgments support for this work provided by the california energy commission and by the california environmental protection agency as a contribution to the governor's climate science report. the findings of this paper do not necessarily represent the views of the funding agencies or the state of california. work performed for the department of energy at berkeley national laboratory is under contract deac0376sf0098.
In marine ecosystems, what are rising atmospheric CO2 and climate change associated with that has potentially wideranging biological effects?
in marine ecosystems, rising atmospheric co2 and climate change are associated with concurrent shifts in temperature, circulation, stratification, nutrient input, oxygen content, and ocean acidification, with potentially wideranging biological effects
Why are population-level shifts occurring?
population-level shifts are occurring because of physiological intolerance to new environments, altered dispersal patterns, and changes in species interactions
Why are ipacts are particularly striking for the poles and the tropics?
mpacts are particularly striking for the poles and the tropics, because of the sensitivity of polar ecosystems to sea-ice retreat and poleward species migrations as well as the sensitivity of coral-algal symbiosis to minor increases in temperature
in marine ecosystems, rising atmospheric co2 and climate change are associated with concurrent shifts in temperature, circulation, stratification, nutrient input, oxygen content, and ocean acidification, with potentially wideranging biological effects. population-level shifts are occurring because of physiological intolerance to new environments, altered dispersal patterns, and changes in species interactions. together with local climate-driven invasion and extinction, these processes result in altered community structure and diversity, including possible emergence of novel ecosystems. impacts are particularly striking for the poles and the tropics, because of the sensitivity of polar ecosystems to sea-ice retreat and poleward species migrations as well as the sensitivity of coral-algal symbiosis to minor increases in temperature. midlatitude upwelling systems, like the california current, exhibit strong linkages between climate and species distributions, phenology, and demography. aggregated effects may modify energy and material flows as well as biogeochemical cycles, eventually impacting the overall ecosystem functioning and services upon which people and societies depend.
Describe the two distinct patterns of behaviour?
two distinct patterns of behaviour were both linked to the rate of new peat formation: abrupt increases coinciding with major transitions in vegetation, and gradual decreases coinciding with increasing humification of newly formed peat
How come changes in C sequestration occured?
changes in c sequestration were indirect results of major shifts in surface structure
What is most likely about hte decay losses?
most likely, decay losses were reduced by abrupt decreases in acrotelm thickness
past rates of peatland c sequestration determined over long time periods (turunen et al. 2002) or based on the assumption of constant peat formation (clymo et al. 1998) are likely to be unreliable for estimating current rates or for predicting future rates (malmer walle'n, 1999; wieder, 2001; malmer walle'n, 2004). over the past 5000 years, c sequestration rates at store mosse ranged from a minimum of 14 to a maximum of 72 g m 2yr 1, with the most rapid changes occurring in the past 1000 years. two distinct patterns of behaviour were both linked to the rate of new peat formation: abrupt increases coinciding with major transitions in vegetation, and gradual decreases coinciding with increasing humification of newly formed peat. both these patterns of behaviour suggest a strong role for surface structure in determining peatland response to hydrological change. abrupt transition between bog stages might be viewed as a hydrological threshold, at which peatland surface structure shifted from one steady state to another. vegetation responded to increasing t qp through increased dominance of sphagnum species that occupy niches at progressively lower heights above the water table, with s. fuscum occupying the highest and driest niches, followed by s. rubellum at intermediate niches and s. magellanicum at the lowest and wettest niches. as water input increased, the hydrological requirement for seepage losses to increase also was met by rise of the water table closer to the peatland surface, into peat of higher hydraulic conductivity. the decrease in acrotelm thickness and resulting vegetation switch enhanced peat formation and c sequestration. although climate change forced the system over the threshold, changes in c sequestration were indirect results of major shifts in surface structure. the shifts in surface structure enhanced peat formation, either by increasing production of new litter or by reducing litter decay losses. most likely, decay losses were reduced by abrupt decreases in acrotelm thickness. at the start of each stage, the water table rose more rapidly than the peatland surface increased in height, so that the litter engulfed by the catotelm was younger and less humified than it had been previously. peat formation was enhanced by instantaneous capture of litter in the lower part of the acrotelm and by decrease in the proportion of mass lost by litter during shortened residence in the acrotelm. shortening of acrotelm residence time is particularly relevant for hollows, which developed during the magellanicum stage. although vegetated hollows produce new litter at a slower rate than do hummocks (malmer walle'n, 1999), this difference is at least partially offset by lower litter decay losses in hollows, owing to the closer proximity of the water table to the peatland surface (belyea clymo, 2001). also, indirect evidence (malmer et al. 1997) suggests that litter production in
Which are the study purposes that have been communicated to the students?
students were told that the study had two purposes: (a) "to better understand your personal experiences and attitudes here in engineering at waterloo" and (b) "to help us provide incoming uw engineering students next year and in the years to come with more accurate expectations about what university is like
What does the material of the study emphasize?
the materials emphasized that both men and women worry about being treated with respect at first in engineering, but this improves with time; and that even when women do not share some interests with men, they share common interests in engineering
Make some examples of the "summary of results" of this study.
omen worry about being treated with respect at first in engineering, but this improves with time; and that even when women do not share some interests with men, they share common interests in engineering. for instance, the "summary of results" indicated that "almost all" upper year students had worried during their first year about "whether other students would accept them" and had felt "intimidated by professors" but that, over time, most students came to feel "comfortable in the academic environment," made "good friends within the faculty of engineering," and felt "confident that other engineering students and professors viewed their abilities positively
students were told that the study had two purposes: (a) "to better understand your personal experiences and attitudes here in engineering at waterloo" and (b) "to help us provide incoming uw engineering students next year and in the years to come with more accurate expectations about what university is like." students in each condition were told that the researchers had previously conducted a survey of upper year students' experiences entering the engineering program and that they would be asked for their help in interpreting the results of this survey. the results, students were told, "were consistent across students' program [i.e., major], gender, and ethnicity." in each condition, students were then given a one-page "summary of results" to review. students then listened to nine audio recordings of senior engineering students said to have taken part in the survey (four women and five men in seven engineering majors), which were described as "illustrative" of students' experiences in the 'transition to engineering at uw.'" as they listened to these recordings, students viewed a presentation that displayed each student's quotation, name (which, participants were told, had been changed to protect students' confidentiality), year, and major along with photographs of campus engineering buildings. social-belonging intervention. in the social-belonging intervention, the materials emphasized that both men and women worried about their social belonging at first in engineering but that these concerns dissipated with time and eventually most students came to feel at home. these materials were drawn from past research walton cohen, 2011 but revised to incorporate two key themes that emerged in pilot interviews and focus groups with female engineering students: worries about (a) being taken seriously or treated with respect and (b) fitting into a male peer culture. the materials emphasized that both men and women worry about being treated with respect at first in engineering, but this improves with time; and that even when women do not share some interests with men, they share common interests in engineering. for instance, the "summary of results" indicated that "almost all" upper year students had worried during their first year about "whether other students would accept them" and had felt "intimidated by professors" but that, over time, most students came to feel "comfortable in the academic environment," made "good friends within the faculty of engineering," and felt "confident that other engineering students and professors viewed their abilities positively." the nine quotations, drawn from pilot research, reinforced this theme. one upper year student said, "when i first got to waterloo, i worried that i was different from the other students now it seems ironic--everybody feels different first year, when really
What did the Compact effectively inform its citizens?
the compact effectively informed its citizens of the appropriateness of using the best available science for these ends but not through a "messaging" campaign focused on "scientific consensus" or anything else
What was the communication strategy of the Compact?
the compact's "communication strategy" was its process the dozens of open meetings and forums, convened not just by the compact governments but by business, residential, and other groups in civil society filled the region's science-communication environment with exactly the information that ordinary people rationally rely on to discern what's known to science
What did the moderator for the town meeting try to inject?
the moderator for the town meeting (a public radio personality who had just moved to southeast florida from chicago) persistently tried to inject the stock themes of the national climate-change debate into the discussion
that's normal it's what government is supposed to do in southeast florida. and it better be sure to pick up the garbage every wednesday, too, their citizens (republican and democrat) would add. the compact effectively informed its citizens of the appropriateness of using the best available science for these ends but not through a "messaging" campaign focused on "scientific consensus" or anything else. the compact's "communication strategy" was its process the dozens of open meetings and forums, convened not just by the compact governments but by business, residential, and other groups in civil society filled the region's science-communication environment with exactly the information that ordinary people rationally rely on to discern what's known to science: the conspicuous example of people they trust and recognize as socially competent supporting the use of science in decision making directly bearing on their lives. indeed, far from evoking the toxic aura of tribal contempt that pervades "messaging" campaigns ("what? are you stupid? what part of '97% agree!' don't you understand?!"), compact officials aggressively, instinctively repel it whenever it threatens to contaminate the region's deliberations. one of those occasions occurred during a heavily attended "town meeting," conducted in connection with the compact's 2013 "regional climate leadership summit," a two-day series of presentations and workshops involving both government officials and representatives of key public stakeholder groups. the moderator for the town meeting (a public radio personality who had just moved to southeast florida from chicago) persistently tried to inject the stock themes of the national climate-change debate into the discussion as the public officials on stage took turns answering questions from the audience. what do republicans in washington have against science, the moderated asked? and what "about the level of evidence that's being accepted by private industry"--how come it's doing so little to address climate change? after an awkward pause, broward county's democratic mayor kristin jacobs replied. "i think it's important to note," she said, gesturing to a banner adorned by a variety of corporate logos, "that one of the sponsors of this summit today is the broward workshop. the broward workshop represents 100 of the largest businesses in broward county." the owners of these businesses, she continued, were "not only sponsoring this summit," but actively participating in it and had organized their own working groups "addressing the impacts of water and climate change." "they know what's happening here," she said to the moderator, who at this point was averting his gaze and fumbling with his notes. "i would also point out," jacobs persisted, "when you look across this region at the summit partners, the summit counties, there are three mayors that are republican and one that's democrat, and
who described in detail by Edwards and Marsh (2005).
c-goldstein is described in detail by edwards and marsh (2005
On which data the seafloor topography and land surface runoff map are based on?
the seafloor topography and land surface runoff map are based on filtered observational data
Describe GENIE model?
the model is a prototype for the grid enabled integrated earth system model (genie) project but this version has no land surface or ice sheet dynamics. there are no turbulent eddies; thus, solutions typically approach a steady state under constant forcing
c-goldstein is described in detail by edwards and marsh (2005). it is a dynamically simplified ocean- atmosphere-sea ice model based on a threedimensional, frictional-geostrophic ocean, which includes isopycnal diffusion and eddy-induced advection but neglects momentum advection and acceleration. the single-layer atmosphere transports heat and moisture mostly by diffusion but includes fixed advection terms based on surface winds and an additional term to improve the interbasin moisture transport. shortwave solar forcing for these runs was temporally constant, while outgoing planetary longwave radiation is a polynomial function of temperature and humidity, plus a greenhouse warming term proportional to the log of the ratio of carbon dioxide concentration compared to a reference preindustrial value. the sea ice height and fractional area are advected by the ocean and diffused horizontally, with thermodynamic growth and decay depending on the vertical heat flux budget. all components share the same horizontal grid, in this case 36  36 equal-area cells, giving a latitudinal spacing increasing poleward from 3deg to 15deg. in the ocean, eight logarithmically spaced depth levels were used. the seafloor topography and land surface runoff map are based on filtered observational data. the model is a prototype for the grid enabled integrated earth system model (genie) project but this version has no land surface or ice sheet dynamics. there are no turbulent eddies; thus, solutions typically approach a steady state under constant forcing. the model climatology is described by hargreaves et al. (2004) who use an ensemble kalman filter to assimilate the observational data into the model, thereby generating an ensemble of runs with a range of values for 12 model transport parameters, all with relatively low mean errors compared to climatology. the method used to derive the ensemble presented here has been slightly extended compared to
Why will ozone recovery play an important role in the SH climate system?
because its impacts will largely offset the impacts of increasing ghgs
What is our ability to anticipate the future climate impacts of ozone recovery limited by?
an incomplete understanding of what has happened in the recent past
Why will it be critical to resolve how the Southern Ocean circulation has changed?
as this is key to understanding past changes in sea ice, oceanic co2 uptake and ice sheet mass balance
although it has been suggested that the sea-ice response to ozone depletion may not be mediated entirely through the sam (turner et al. 2009), thus offering the possibility of reconciling the observational data, more recent modelling evidence indicates that ozone depletion acts to decrease antarctic sie rather than increase it. it has been argued that the observed sea-ice expansion might not be a response to external forcing, but instead could be a reflection of internal variability within the climate system. however, alternative hypotheses to explain the observed sea-ice changes have also been proposed. for example, bintanja et al. (2013) have suggested that increased meltwater from antarctic ice shelves has led to a cooling and freshening of the ocean surface layer in recent decades. this could have effectively shielded antarctic sea ice from the upwelling of warmer water from depth, contributing to the observed increase in sie. this proposed mechanismhasrecentlybeencalledintoquestion,however(swart and fyfe, 2013). clearly, there is no simple answer when it comes to explaining the observed sea-ice changes. whatever the answer may be, though, it almost certainly involves ozone depletion at some level. finally,theclimateimpactsofstratosphericozonedepletionare expected to reverse in the coming decades as stratospheric ozone recovery becomes a reality. ozone recovery will play an important role in the sh climate system because its impacts will largely offset the impacts of increasing ghgs. although we have focused in section 5 on how this is likely to affect the atmospheric circulation, we emphasize that the competing effects of ozone recovery and ghg increases also will be crucial for understanding other aspects of future climate change. for example, ozone recovery is expected to mitigate a substantial portion of the antarctic sea-ice loss brought about by increasing ghgs over the next 50 years (smith et al. 2012). our ability to anticipate the future climate impacts of ozone recovery, however, is somewhat limited by an incomplete understanding of what has happened in the recent past. to this end, we stress that further work is needed in order to better understand how the climate system responded to ozone depletion in the late twentieth century. in particular, it will be critical to resolve how the southern ocean circulation has changed, as this is key to understanding past changes in sea ice, oceanic co2 uptake and ice sheet mass balance. the path forward should be rooted firmly in observational data. this means both acquiring new observations, and finding novel ways to analyze existing data. additionally, it will be valuable to examine the climate effects of ozone depletion and recovery using models that have not traditionally been employed, such as earth system models and stand-alone ice-sheet models. this will allow for quantification of the impacts of ozone forcing on southern ocean co2 uptake and antarctic ice sheet mass balance. mass balance changes due to ozone depletion and recovery have yet to be quantified, and this should be set as a high priority for future work. these changes may have important implications for past and future trajectories of global sea-level rise. acknowledgement we thank karen smith, ryan abernathey and two anonymous reviewers for helpful comments. we also thank karen smith for preparing one of the figures. m.p. acknowledges helpful conversations with kevin grise. this work was supported by a grant to columbia university from the national science foundation. references
Will climate driven changes impact primary productivity?
climate-driven changes in land cover will have a direct effect on nutrient inputs into coastal waters which will in turn affect rates of primary productivity that fuel hypoxia
what is the impact of vegetation type?
changes in vegetation type and cover will affect nutrient cycling and retention in the soils of coastal watersheds, as well as runoff dynamics and nutrient transport through tributaries (kucharik et al. 2000
How does this vegetation type and land cover impact globally?
extreme changes in land cover resulting in vegetation loss and increased rates of desertification globally will contribute to atmospheric dust loading and enhanced atmospheric nutrient delivery to marine ecosystems (schlesinger et al. 1990; woodward et al. 2005), which could augment eutrophication in some estuaries
climate-driven changes in land cover will have a direct effect on nutrient inputs into coastal waters which will in turn affect rates of primary productivity that fuel hypoxia. changes in vegetation type and cover will affect nutrient cycling and retention in the soils of coastal watersheds, as well as runoff dynamics and nutrient transport through tributaries (kucharik et al. 2000). extreme changes in land cover resulting in vegetation loss and increased rates of desertification globally will contribute to atmospheric dust loading and enhanced atmospheric nutrient delivery to marine ecosystems (schlesinger et al. 1990; woodward et al. 2005), which could augment eutrophication in some estuaries.
How are temperature variations on asphalt surfaces considered?
for asphalt-surfaced facilities, such as roads and airstrips, temperature variations are currently considered in the selection of asphalt cements (and asphalt emulsions for surface-treated roads). the intent is to minimize both thermal cracking under cold temperatures and traffic-associated rutting under hot temperatures. to accommodate warmer summers in southern canada, more expensive asphalt cements may be required, because materials used in roadways have a limited tolerance to heat, and the stress is exacerbated by the length of time temperatures are elevated
for asphalt-surfaced facilities, such as roads and airstrips, temperature variations are currently considered in the selection of asphalt cements (and asphalt emulsions for surface-treated roads). the intent is to minimize both thermal cracking under cold temperatures and traffic-associated rutting under hot temperatures. to accommodate warmer summers in southern canada, more expensive asphalt cements may be required, because materials used in roadways have a limited tolerance to heat, and the stress is exacerbated by the length of time temperatures are elevated.(22)although there may be associated costs, this could be accommodated at the time of construction or reconstruction. changing patterns of freeze-thaw damage are more difficult to plan for, but innovations related to design and construction may reduce current and future vulnerability of canada's road network. for example, research conducted by the national research council is addressing ways to reduce heaving and cracking of pavement around manholes. for transportation and other structures built on permafrost, a number of lessons have been learned over the past century. for example, failure to incorporate appropriate design techniques and regularly maintain the rail line between the pas and churchill, manitoba in the early 20thcentury resulted in significant damage, as subsidence and frost heave twisted and displaced some rail sections.(27)today, although construction over or through permafrost is based on careful route selection, most decisions do not account for future climate change, due in part to insufficient availability of data and maps see box 3). there are, however, several options that are used to improve the longevity of infrastructure built on permafrost. for example, polystyrene insulation was placed under one part of the dempster highway near inuvik,(27)and the norman wells pipeline, in operation since 1985, has many unique design features to minimize disturbance in the thaw-sensitive permafrost. another possibility is to construct temporary facilities, which can be easily relocated (e.g., reference 67). again, these practices have associated costs, but they illustrate that capacity exists to deal with variable climate in a highly sensitive environment.
What is a probability?
a probability is a numerical summary of a person's state of knowledge about a proposition
What makes a statement valid?
valid statements are those that are consistent with the probability calculus, the axioms of which were clarified by kolmogorov in the 1930s
How much effort and resources should we devote to this task?
the amount of effort and resources devoted to this task ought to reflect the importance of the resulting inference
the first thing to understand about probability in this context is that there is no such thing as 'the' probability. to ask for 'the' probability is to commit a category error. a probability is a numerical summary of a person's state of knowledge about a proposition: it is inherently subjective (i.e., it relates to the mind of a subject). therefore probability takes the possessive article, not the definite one: better to say your probability. inference based on a subjective interpretation of probability is termed bayesian statistics see, e.g., o'hagan and forster 2004 ), bernardo and smith 1994 ), or lad 1996 ). 2 some readers will be concerned about this characterisation of probability. there appears to be a syllogism that runs "science is objective, your type of probability is subjective, objective and subjective are antonyms, therefore your type of probability has no place in science." it comes up in discussions with scientists often enough to warrant a brief comment. the error is to confuse two meanings of 'subjective'. 'objective' in this context may be taken to mean disinterested, or uninfluenced by personal prejudice: obviously a hallmark of good science. there is a meaning of 'subjective' which is antonymous to this: emanating from a person's emotions or prejudices. but in dictionaries this is the second meaning. the first meaning of 'subjective' is relating to the mind of the subject and this is the appropriate sense when probability is used to describe uncertainty: uncertainty is a property of the mind. a scientist's prediction will be perforce subjective, but he should aim to be objective as well, by making a disinterested appraisal of the probabilities he attaches to events--this is not paradoxical. objectivity is not always easy to achieve. for example, if a climate scientist thought too little attention was being given to a certain type of future climate catastrophe, he might be tempted to overstate his probability of the event, in order to attract attention. for the policymaker, though, it is not just what a scientist thinks that is important, but also the extent to which that scientist can justify his assessment. even though probabilities are subjective statements, not all such statements are demonstrably valid, and of those that are, not all are authoritative. valid statements are those that are consistent with the probability calculus, the axioms of which were clarified by kolmogorov in the 1930s. the probability calculus allows us to derive potentially complex 'posterior' probabilities from simpler 'prior' ones, and in this sense its practical contribution is to simplify the task of making a prediction. authoritative statements are those for which the scientist is prepared to defend his specification of the prior probabilities as a reasonable summary of his judgements. this does not rule out the judgement "i know very little about this quantity", although too many such judgements might call into question the climate scientist's expertise. in climate prediction the collection of uncertain quantities for which the climate scientist must specify prior probabilities can be large. probability distributions over large collections are hard to specify with confidence, in fact the task can often seem overwhelming. they can also be intractable in computations. to make progress it is often necessary to impose additional structure. this is the purpose of constructing a statistical framework statistical modelling is the more usual term, but in this paper 'model' is reserved for the climate model): to find representations of prior probabilities that can be specified in terms of relatively simple numerical summaries, and which are 3 tractable in computations. note that such a statistical framework is never 'true'--its role is to help structure and summarise a person's judgements. this paper makes such a structural choice, identified below as s1'). this choice defines the primitive quantities for which a prior distribution must be specified, and does so in such a way that the prior distribution separates into a more manageable set of marginal distributions. this structural choice can easily accommodate current practice in climate science; that is to say, climate scientists should not find it at all restrictive, at least in the short term. this paper also makes two additional tractability choices, identified below as t1 and t2 ). these take place within the framework established by the structural choices. the main justification for these tractability choices is computational, and they may easily be generalised. one of the criticisms levelled at the bayesian approach is that it is hard to apply in practice. it is hard to quantify judgements about states of knowledge, and structural ions, although intended to simplify this process, can also obscure it by their unfamiliarity, or by being too restrictive. practising bayesian statisticians know all too well that specifying a prior distribution per se is not the difficulty, but specifying a good one is. this is an area full of pitfalls, and often a scientist will find it helpful to work with a statistician to formulate his prior (see, e.g., garthwaite et al. 2005 ). the amount of effort and resources devoted to this task ought to reflect the importance of the resulting inference. if it is worth spending thousands of hours constructing a climate model, and millions of dollars collecting climate data, then it does not seem unreasonable to invest a similar amount quantifying our judgements about how these two are related. but this has not yet happened.
What are high-rate systems?
as discussed in chapter 25, anaerobic reactors operated with short hydraulic detention times and long solids retention times need to incorporate biomass retention mechanisms, thereby making up the so-called high-rate systems
What is the concept of dispersed bacterial growth associated with?
the concept of dispersed bacterial growth is associated with the presence of free bacterial flocs or granules
What does the concept of attached bacterial growth require?
the concept of attached bacterial growth requires the development of bacteria joined to an inert support material, leading to the formation of a biological film (biofilm
as discussed in chapter 25, anaerobic reactors operated with short hydraulic detention times and long solids retention times need to incorporate biomass retention mechanisms, thereby making up the so-called high-rate systems. several types of high-rate anaerobic reactors are used for the treatment of sewage and these can be classified into two large groups, according to the type of biomass growth in the system, as illustrated in figure 26.7. the concept of dispersed bacterial growth is associated with the presence of free bacterial flocs or granules. on the other hand, the concept of attached bacterial growth requires the development of bacteria joined to an inert support material, leading to the formation of a biological film (biofilm). anaerobic treatment systems 717
Why won't geoengineering be easy to understand?
relocating public debate about geoengineering to an earlier point in its development will not address the generic difficulties of public engagement--who should participate, the efficacy of different approaches, the clarification of aims and the need to ensure the results of any engagement exercise are taken on board by decision-makers, as well as the means for locating dialogue within existing modes of democratic and public representation
What can people interpret bout nanotechnologies?
in turn, this means that engagement mechanisms require at least some level of information provision about the issue, raising the question of how this information is framed and presented by the dialogue organizers
reduced sea ice thickness is just one of the many signs of global climate change. the social and ethical implications of geoengineering. it will not be an easy challenge to meet. relocating public debate about geoengineering to an earlier point in its development will not address the generic difficulties of public engagement--who should participate, the efficacy of different approaches, the clarification of aims and the need to ensure the results of any engagement exercise are taken on board by decision-makers, as well as the means for locating dialogue within existing modes of democratic and public representation. equally, upstream engagement brings a range of unique issues relating to the design of participatory exercises. in the case of nanotechnologies, the very absence of products and easy everyday analogies through which people can interpret the science means they often struggle (initially at least) to get a grip on the topic. in turn, this means that engagement mechanisms require at least some level of information provision about the issue, raising the question of how this information is framed and presented by the dialogue organizers. many attempts at upstream public engagement suffer from two problems: a profound ambivalence on behalf of the public, and a general cynicism about whether the results of engagement exercises are taken seriously by decision-makers and stakeholders.52 decision-makers must be careful not to use upstream public engagement as an opportunity to "get in early" with progeoengineering public relations campaigns, but even more importantly, every effort must be made to make public engagement opportunities available to as many people (and as many different types of people) as possible. the recent world wide views on global warming project represents an attempt to pursue public engagement on a global scale.53 the project was a global citizen consultation that took place on september 26, 2009 in 38 countries, involving 4,400 citizens. each deliberation included around 100 participants, who were selected to be demographically representative for the region. participants discussed and debated views on the policy goals of the united nations climate change negotiations in copenhagen. while 4,400 people still represent a tiny minority of the worldwide population, the project suggests that public participation projects need not (and should not) be restricted to the citizens of industrialized, western nations.
Who is Professor Jochem Marotzke?
professor jochem marotzke, managing director of the max planck institute for meteorology in hamburg, germany
What is the effect of climate change?
 as a consequence, we will have to face more frequent extremes in climate and weather
What are the risks and the danger of abrupt climate change?
if climate crosses certain thresholds and undergoes fast, irreversible transitions. for example, the deep circulation in the atlantic ocean could collapse, switching off the 'heat conveyor' of europe. in an extreme case, temperature in northwestern europe could fall by 3 to 5deg centigrade, in 10-20 years. such a scenario is featured in roland emmerich's film 'the day after tomorrow,' which has just been released
every second group (well-informed compared with little-informed) received written additional expert information about the state of the global climate as follows: ''professor jochem marotzke, managing director of the max planck institute for meteorology in hamburg, germany, provides the following expert opinion on the state of the climate: human activities have already demonstrably changed global climate, and further, much greater changes must be expected throughout this century. the emissions of co2 and other greenhouse gases will further accelerate global warming. as a consequence, we will have to face more frequent extremes in climate and weather. heat waves such as 2003 in europe, with  15,000 deaths in france alone, will occur more often. the water cycle in the atmosphere will increase in strength: arid areas will be drier, humid areas more moist. droughts, extreme precipitation, and floods will occur more frequently. sea level will rise, and hence the risk of extreme storm surges. in addition to these risks, there is the danger of abrupt climate change, if climate crosses certain thresholds and undergoes fast, irreversible transitions. for example, the deep circulation in the atlantic ocean could collapse, switching off the 'heat conveyor' of europe. in an extreme case, temperature in northwestern europe could fall by 3 to 5deg centigrade, in 10-20 years. such a scenario is featured in roland emmerich's film 'the day after tomorrow,' which has just been released. the climatic consequences shown there are hugely exaggerated and unrealistic, but the underlying cause of an abrupt climate change is not.'' (the original german text of this message is provided as supporting text .)
What makes Tuvalu highly vulnerable to sea-level rise?
its low elevation makes tuvalu highly vulnerable to sea-level rise, storm surges, "king tides", and other climatic events which affect the entire population of the country (all tuvaluans live on the coastline
Name some of the factors that further compound Tuvalu's environmental problems?
tuvalu's environmental problems are further compounded by water shortage, waste disposal and demographic pressures
What are the two paths that migration patterns follow in Tuvalu?
migration patterns in tuvalu follow two paths: from outer islands to funafuti, and from tuvalu to fiji and new zealand
as one of the smallest and most remote low-lying atoll countries on earth, tuvalu exemplifies a country whose existence is threatened by sea level rise. tuvalu's territory covers over 750,000 km2, yet only 26 km2 is dry land with no point more than 5 meters above high tide. its low elevation makes tuvalu highly vulnerable to sea-level rise, storm surges, "king tides", and other climatic events which affect the entire population of the country (all tuvaluans live on the coastline). tuvalu's environmental problems are further compounded by water shortage, waste disposal and demographic pressures. local knowledge of global warming is variable, but increasingly frequent saltwater flooding, accelerated coastal erosion and worsening agriculture provide day-to-day evidence of a changing environment. the adaptive capacity of many tuvaluans is already exceeded with storm surges and king tides. with the possibility of sea level rise of one meter this century, even if the surface area is not completely submerged, the question arises how long people there can remain and lead normal lives. migration patterns in tuvalu follow two paths: from outer islands to funafuti, and from tuvalu to fiji and new zealand. currently about 3,000 tuvaluans have migrated to auckland, new zealand, many of whom were prompted at least in part by concerns about the environment. one interviewee noted his decision to migrate is out of fear that tuvalu will be flooded: "i don't want to wake up one morning with the island washed away. look at what happened in the solomon islands! i prefer to leave now before i have no other choice."101
What is the capacity to be wounded from a perturbation or stress?
vulnerability is the capacity to be wounded from a perturbation or stress
What can be spontaneous or planned?
adaptation can be spontaneous or planned
Who are clearly the most vulnerable regions to climate change?
developing countries, and particularly the least developed countries, are clearly the most vulnerable regions to climate change
put simply, vulnerability is the capacity to be wounded from a perturbation or stress, whether environmental or socioeconomic, upon peoples, systems, or other receptors. in the case of this paper, it is the exposure and susceptibility to harm or damage from climate change. the ipcc has adopted the following definitions relevant to assessing vulnerability: vulnerability the extent to which climate change may damage or harm a system; vulnerability is a function of not only the system's sensitivity, but also its ability to adapt to new climatic conditions. sensitivity the degree to which a system will respond to a change in climatic conditions (e.g., the extent of change in ecosystem composition, structure and functioning, including net primary productivity, resulting from a given change in temperature or precipitation). adaptability the degree to which adjustments are possible in practices, processes, or structures of systems to projected or actual changes of climate; adaptation can be spontaneous or planned, and can be carried out in response to or in anticipation of changes in conditions. assessments of the ecological and human risks from climate change need to take account of both the magnitude of the stresses that may result from alterations in the characteristics of climate--precipitation, temperature, droughts, severe storms--and the degree of vulnerability of human and ecological systems to them. thus, even modest changes in climate, either in mean temperature change or in the frequency and severity of extreme events, can have large effects if people or ecological systems are highly sensitive to the climate change. such sensitivity may be very high if exposure to the change is high or if the buffering or coping capacity of people or systems is constrained. assessing such effects requires an integrated approach, one that examines interactions between ecological and human systems as a particular place or region responds to the change or perturbation. ecosystems are important in relation to climate change because they provide the lifesupport systems that sustain human societies. in doing so, they deliver such essential goods and services as (1) providing food, fiber, shelter, medicines, and energy; (2) processing and storing carbon and nutrients; (3) assimilating and remediating wastes; (4) purifying water; (5) building soils and reducing soil degradation; and (6) housing the planet's store of genetic and species diversity. climate change will alter these goods and services in complex and uncertain waysthrough their geographic location, mixes of species, and array or bundles of services essential to human well-being. those ecological goods and services themselves are also constantly changing because of ongoing human activities, so that climate change and human activities will interact, often in unknown ways, in modifying patterns of ecological goods and services that support human societies. human societies show a wide variability in their sensitivity to environmental change and their abilities to anticipate, cope with, and adapt to such change. many factors shape this variability, including wealth, technology, knowledge, infrastructure, institutional capabilities, preparedness, and access to resources. human endowments in such assets vary widely in a world of mounting inequality. developing countries, and particularly the least developed countries, are clearly the most vulnerable regions to climate change. they will experience the greatest loss of life, the most negative effects on economy and development, and the largest diversion of resources from other pressing needs. since such countries and regions are also under stress from the forces of
What is the negative hardest in Asian woman?
asian countries, most bengali women have never learned to swim
What is the negative effects of climate change hardest?
it is widely acknowledged that the negative effects of climate change are likely to hit the poorest people in the poorest countries hardest
What is the role of Asian women of a climate change planing?
all members of affected communities must be part of a climate change planning and governance process. without fully involving women in planning and decision-making, the quality of adaptive measures will be limited, and their successful implementation will remain doubtful. climate change will also affect people's health, and it is women who look after their children and elderly family members when they are sick
we are learning, for example, how natural disasters affect women and men. examples include: following the cyclone and flood of 1991 in bangladesh the death rate was almost five times as high for women as for men. warning information was transmitted by men to men in public spaces but rarely communicated to the rest of the family. many women are not allowed to leave their homes without a male relative, and they waited for their relatives to return home and take them to a safe place. moreover, as in many asian countries, most bengali women have never learned to swim. another illustration of the differences in vulnerability is the fact that more men than women died during hurricane mitch in central america. it has been suggested that this was due to existing gender norms in which ideas about masculinity encouraged 'heroic' - in this case: risky action in a disaster. it is widely acknowledged that the negative effects of climate change are likely to hit the poorest people in the poorest countries hardest. since women form a disproportionate share of the poor in developing countries and communities that are highly dependent on local natural resources, women are likely to be disproportionately vulnerable to the effects of climate change. more examples can be found when looking at the effects of drought or deforestation. in many developing countries, women are responsible for fetching water and firewood - tasks that become ever more burden-some and time-consuming due to widespread environmental changes. it is girls, more often than boys, who will drop out of school to fulfil these tasks. it is women who will be further limited in their opportunities to engage in work outside the home. as evident in the latest, albeit still preliminary research presented here in montreal, successful adaptation will have to be context-specific, and participatory. all members of affected communities must be part of a climate change planning and governance process. without fully involving women in planning and decision-making, the quality of adaptive measures will be limited, and their successful implementation will remain doubtful. climate change will also affect people's health, and it is women who look after their children and elderly family members when they are sick. if such demands on women increase, they will, for example, be less able to pursue income-generating activities. g+cc.article3.9_23feb06.doc (c) genanet life e.v., wecf
What three components were used to assess vulnerability?
vulnerability was assessed through its three components of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity
How many environmental and socioeconomic indicators had their relevance assessed to reflect the three components of vulnerability?
we have assessed the relevance of 19 environmental and socioeconomic indicators to reflect these three components of vulnerability
How is climate change vulnerability differentiated across the farming areas in the country?
vulnerability to climate change is spatially differentiated across the farming areas in the country
we have quantitatively evaluated the relative vulnerability to climate change of the south african farming sector and its variability across the country's nine provinces. vulnerability was assessed through its three components of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. we have assessed the relevance of 19 environmental and socioeconomic indicators to reflect these three components of vulnerability and have constructed a vulnerability index using principal components analysis. our analyses put forward three main features of the vulnerability of south africa's farming sector to climate change. first and foremost, vulnerability to climate change is spatially differentiated across the farming areas in the country. thus, although a national climate change adaptation policy is necessary, policymakers should
What type of sieve bags are recommended for sampling macrofaunal communities of ocean-exposed sandy beaches?
recommendation 5 sieve bags with a mesh aperture of 1 mm are recommended for sampling macrofaunal communities of ocean-exposed sandy beaches
Where are smaller mesh apertures e.g. 500 l m) largely practical to use?
smaller mesh apertures e.g. 500 l m) are largely impractical to use in the field on all but the finest-sand beaches
What are the relative merits of open and closed-topped sieves?
in considering the relative merits of openand closed-topped sieves (box sieves versus sieve bags), the ability of sieve bags to prevent contamination of samples by surf-zone species during sieving in the swash, and their greater area of mesh surface, makes these the preferred gear type
because the conventional definition of macrofauna involves specimens being retained on a mesh of 1-mm aperture, this has become the most widely used mesh size in sandy beach research, and it represents a sensible standard (mclachlan brown 2006). smaller mesh apertures e.g. 500 l m) are largely impractical to use in the field on all but the finest-sand beaches. in considering the relative merits of openand closed-topped sieves (box sieves versus sieve bags), the ability of sieve bags to prevent contamination of samples by surf-zone species during sieving in the swash, and their greater area of mesh surface, makes these the preferred gear type. recommendation 5 sieve bags with a mesh aperture of 1 mm are recommended for sampling macrofaunal communities of ocean-exposed sandy beaches.
When could the Great Lakes see decline in their average water levels?
in the great lakes, average water levels could decline to record low levels during the latter part of this century
What are changes the Great Lakes Region might see?
changes in water temperatures, extent of seasonal ice cover and storminess would impact shoreline changes, ecosystems, infrastructure, and tourism and recreation in the great lakes coastal region
How could impacts on the Great Lakes be reduced?
n most cases, impacts could be reduced by retreat or accommodation, whereas protection may require significant investment that may only be justifiable where significant fixed infrastructure is at risk
in the great lakes, average water levels could decline to record low levels during the latter part of this century.(14)a drop in water levels would adversely affect commercial navigation and shore facilities by increasing the operating costs for ports and shipping channels in the great lakes- st. lawrence seaway system. furthermore, changes in water temperatures, extent of seasonal ice cover and storminess would impact shoreline changes, ecosystems, infrastructure, and tourism and recreation in the great lakes coastal region. discussion of adaptation to climate change along marine coasts in the canada country study centred around strategies of retreat, accommodation and protection, as promoted by the ipcc.(12, 13)in most cases, impacts could be reduced by retreat or accommodation, whereas protection may require significant investment that may only be justifiable where significant fixed infrastructure is at risk.(12)
At the level of the individual habitat patch, what are the aspects of Building resilience?
at the level of the individual habitat patch, it may be possible to directly manipulate the microclimate experienced by species by changing management. for example in a grassland surface temperature at ground level can be lowered by allowing the sward to grow taller or allowing the growth of areas of scrub. recent research suggests that optimum turf height for conservation of maculinea butterflies is changing with increasing mean temperatures
At the landscape scale, what are the aspects of Building resilience?
management intervention can also help to maintain a species where it is at risk of increased competition from other species (whether invasive or already present). at the landscape scale, increasing the size or number of patches may increase the resilience of communities and populations by increasing the effective size of populations and reducing edge effects
At landscapes that are intensively managed in which natural or semi-natural habitats, what are the aspects of Building resilience?
this is particularly important in landscapes that are intensively managed in which natural or semi-natural habitats are highly fragmented. in many cases, it will not be possible to quickly restore natural vegetation types, but there may be a beneficial effect of buffering core areas of an ecological network with areas that are being restored. within a european context, funding for agri-environment measures under the common agricultural policy represent a major opportunity for this with appropriate targeting. this approach can also facilitate dispersal between habitat patches, increasing the functional connectivity of networks of sites and enabling metapopulation function
building resilience has different aspects at different scales.182. at the level of the individual habitat patch, it may be possible to directly manipulate the microclimate experienced by species by changing management. for example in a grassland surface temperature at ground level can be lowered by allowing the sward to grow taller or allowing the growth of areas of scrub. recent research suggests that optimum turf height for conservation of maculinea butterflies is changing with increasing mean temperatures.183management intervention can also help to maintain a species where it is at risk of increased competition from other species (whether invasive or already present). at the landscape scale, increasing the size or number of patches may increase the resilience of communities and populations by increasing the effective size of populations and reducing edge effects.69,184,185this is particularly important in landscapes that are intensively managed in which natural or semi-natural habitats are highly fragmented. in many cases, it will not be possible to quickly restore natural vegetation types, but there may be a beneficial effect of buffering core areas of an ecological network with areas that are being restored. within a european context, funding for agri-environment measures under the common agricultural policy represent a major opportunity for this with appropriate targeting. this approach can also facilitate dispersal between habitat patches, increasing the functional connectivity of networks of sites and enabling metapopulation function.186-188
What are the expected effects of rising ocean temperatures on larval development?
increased ocean temperatures are expected to accelerate larval development, potentially leading to reduced pelagic durations and earlier reef-seeking behaviour. depending on the spatial arrangement of reefs, the expectation would be a reduction in dispersal distances and the spatial scale of connectivity
What role does spatial and temporal connectivity for the management of coral reef ecosystems?
changes to the spatial and temporal scales of connectivity have implications for the management of coral reef ecosystems, especially the design and placement of marine-protected areas
What role do ocean currents play for larval supply?
changes to ocean currents could alter the dynamics of larval supply and changes to planktonic productivity could affect how many larvae survive the pelagic stage and their condition at settlement; however, these patterns are likely to vary greatly from place-to-place and projections of how oceanographic features will change in the future lack sufficient certainty and resolution to make robust predictions
this review assesses and predicts the impacts that rapid climate change will have on population connectivity in coral reef ecosystems, using fishes as a model group. increased ocean temperatures are expected to accelerate larval development, potentially leading to reduced pelagic durations and earlier reef-seeking behaviour. depending on the spatial arrangement of reefs, the expectation would be a reduction in dispersal distances and the spatial scale of connectivity. small increase in temperature might enhance the number of larvae surviving the pelagic phase, but larger increases are likely to reduce reproductive output and increase larval mortality. changes to ocean currents could alter the dynamics of larval supply and changes to planktonic productivity could affect how many larvae survive the pelagic stage and their condition at settlement; however, these patterns are likely to vary greatly from place-to-place and projections of how oceanographic features will change in the future lack sufficient certainty and resolution to make robust predictions. connectivity could also be compromised by the increased fragmentation of reef habitat due to the effects of coral bleaching and ocean acidification. changes to the spatial and temporal scales of connectivity have implications for the management of coral reef ecosystems, especially the design and placement of marine-protected areas. the size and spacing of protected areas may need to be strategically adjusted if reserve networks are to retain their efficacy in the future. keywords climate change  population connectivity  global warming  larval dispersal  habitat fragmentation  marine-protected areas most coral reef animals have a complex life cycle with a demersal adult stage that is relatively site attached and a pelagic larval stage that is subject to dispersal. for such species, connectivity between populations inhabiting different patches of reef is expected to be maintained primarily by the dispersive larvae (sale 1991 ). the scale of larval dispersal can vary greatly both within and among taxa (sale and kritzer 2003 kinlan and gaines 2003 shanks et al. 2003 ); some larvae may disperse just a few
Irrigation delivery of water to the land surface each year is equivalent to what percentage of annual precipitation over land?
irrigation delivers about 2,600 km3of water to the land surface each year, or about 2% of annual precipitation over land
What was done to approximate actual irrigation amounts and locations as closely as possible?
to approximate actual irrigation amounts and locations as closely as possible, we used national-level census data of agricultural water withdrawals, disaggregated with maps of croplands, areas equipped for irrigation, and climatic water deficits
What is an example of an indirect effect that seemed to dominate the cooling effect of irrigation?
the cooling effect of irrigation seemed to be dominated by indirect effects like an increase in cloud cover, rather than by direct evaporative cooling
irrigation delivers about 2,600 km3of water to the land surface each year, or about 2% of annual precipitation over land. we investigated how this redistribution of water affects the global climate, focusing on its effects on near-surface temperatures. using the community atmosphere model (cam) coupled to the community land model (clm), we compared global simulations with and without irrigation. to approximate actual irrigation amounts and locations as closely as possible, we used national-level census data of agricultural water withdrawals, disaggregated with maps of croplands, areas equipped for irrigation, and climatic water deficits. we further investigated the sensitivity of our results to the timing and spatial extent of irrigation. we found that irrigation alters climate significantly in some regions, but has a negligible effect on globalaverage near-surface temperatures. irrigation cooled the northern mid-latitudes; the central and southeast united states, portions of southeast china and portions of southern and southeast asia cooled by 0.5 k averaged over the year. much of northern canada, on the other hand, warmed by 1 k. the cooling effect of irrigation seemed to be dominated by indirect effects like an increase in cloud cover, rather than by direct evaporative cooling. the regional effects of irrigation were as large as those seen in previous studies of land cover change, showing that changes in land management can be as important as changes in land cover in terms of their climatic effects. our results were sensitive to the area of irrigation, but were insensitive to the details of irrigation timing and delivery. keywords irrigation  gcm  agriculture  land management 1 humans are modifying the earth's climate not only by changing the composition of the atmosphere, but also by changing the land surface. both the conversion of forests to croplands and the conversion of vegetated landscapes to cities can have large effects on the regional climate. these effects manifest themselves through changes in the partitioning of net radiation into sensible (h) and latent heat (le) fluxes, changes in albedo, and changes in the
Which situation state can fill the regulatory gap?
when state and federal efforts do not overlap, the problems from nested regulation do not apply. in these circumstances, states can fill the regulatory gap
Why is the subnational efforts will critical in the United States?
in the united states, subnational efforts will remain critical in the absence of meaningful federal policy
when state and federal efforts do not overlap, the problems from nested regulation do not apply. in these circumstances, states can fill the regulatory gap. for example, states may address market failures not confronted by federal policy. one important such failure is the principal-agent problem of inadequate incentives--even in the face of efficient energy prices--for either owners or occupiers of rental properties to invest in energy-efficiency technologies, such as thermal insulation. this market failure is best addressed through building codes or zoning, both of which are probably better implemented at the state or local level, because of geographic differences in climate. more broadly, the case can be made for statelevel action when action that arguably is best taken at the federal level is not politically feasible. since the externality from greenhouse gas emissions transcends national boundaries, climate change ideally should be addressed at the global level. however, just as political and institutional obstacles to a "world-government" initiative make national policies the best available option, so too can political obstacles to national efforts leave room for subnational efforts. in the united states, subnational efforts will remain critical in the absence of meaningful federal policy.
What scale is expected for a RCM?
it is typically expected that the kind of detail that rcms address is important on regional scale, but does not propagate upscale to planetary scales
What does RCM means?
regional climate modeling
Does the RCM alter the simulated climate?
as has been discussed above, the downscaling concept adheres to the basic tenet that rcms should not alter the simulated climate on scales that can be skilfully addressed at gcm resolutions
it is typically expected that the kind of detail that rcms address is important on regional scale, but does not propagate upscale to planetary scales. the body of regional climate modeling is also done as oneway nesting, meaning that the rcm simulation does not return information to the global scale. (a 'twoway nesting' variant was briefly mentioned earlier in connection to model domain.) the added value being sought is improved localto-regional representation of climate processes. as has been discussed above, the downscaling concept adheres to the basic tenet that rcms should not alter the simulated climate on scales that can be skilfully addressed at gcm resolutions.9,23rather, the effect appears on finer scales, such as mesoscale structures77
What capability does AOGCM have?
statistical emulation of climate model output from computationally demanding aogcms has the potential to make climate projections capturing the full temporal dynamics of transient climates readily available for impacts assessment, policy analysis, and other applications
What does the simple statistical approach allow?
the simple statistical approach we have outlined here permits us to credibly emulate climate model output with a very small training set, even in some cases of severe scenario extrapolations
What is the use of small approach?
small training set size is permitted by two key aspects of our approach: treating emulation inputs (co2 concentrations here) as past trajectories rather than fixed time-frame trajectories and using simple, physically based statistical models that capture the relationships between co2 and temperature
statistical emulation of climate model output from computationally demanding aogcms has the potential to make climate projections capturing the full temporal dynamics of transient climates readily available for impacts assessment, policy analysis, and other applications. developing methods that can function reasonably well with very small training sets is essential, however, to permit emulation to be a widely useful tool. the simple statistical approach we have outlined here permits us to credibly emulate climate model output with a very small training set, even in some cases of severe scenario extrapolations. small training set size is permitted by two key aspects of our approach: treating emulation inputs (co2 concentrations here) as past trajectories rather than fixed time-frame trajectories and using simple, physically based statistical models that capture the relationships between co2 and temperature
Which is the ultimate objective of the UNFCCC?
is 'to achieve [...] stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system
What is the most prominent target currently discussed? Explain it shortly.
the most prominent target currently discussed is the 2degc temperature target, that is, to limit global temperature increase relative to pre-industrial times to below 2degc. the 2degc target has been used first by the european union as a policy target in 1996 but can be traced further back
Are climate impacts globally identical?
climate impacts however are geographically diverse (joshi et al., 2011) and sector specific, and no objective threshold defines when dangerous interference is reached
the concept of stabilization is strongly linked to the ultimate objective of the unfccc, which is 'to achieve [...] stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system'. recent policy discussions focussed on a global temperature increase, rather than on ghg concentrations. the most prominent target currently discussed is the 2degc temperature target, that is, to limit global temperature increase relative to pre-industrial times to below 2degc. the 2degc target has been used first by the european union as a policy target in 1996 but can be traced further back (jaeger and jaeger, 2010; randalls, 2010). climate impacts however are geographically diverse (joshi et al., 2011) and sector specific, and no objective threshold defines when dangerous interference is reached. some changes may be delayed or irreversible, and some impacts are likely to be beneficial. it is thus not possible to define a single critical threshold without value judgments and without assumptions on how to aggregate current and future costs and benefits. targets other than 2degc have been proposed (e.g., 1.5degc global warming relative to pre-industrial), or targets based on co2 concentration levels, for example, 350 ppm (hansen et al., 2008). the rate of change may also be important (e.g., for adaptation). this section does not advocate or defend any threshold, nor does it judge
How might the problem of lack information be solved?
given that the economics of climate change will always be plagued by fundamental uncertainty (of climate sensitivity or deep utility parameters), computational techniques can offer some useful approaches to address situations where we lack information
Often How do modellers deal with the lack of appropriate data to calibrate model parameters of consumption?
often we lack appropriate data to calibrate model parameters (such as the pure rate of time preference and elasticity of marginal utility of consumption). in this case, modellers often employ assumptions that are deemed reasonable or appropriate with reference to economic theory
Give one importance of the ABM approach
this process is important for robustness testing, and allows modellers to identify which parameters have a greater influence on outcomes than others law 2009 
given that the economics of climate change will always be plagued by fundamental uncertainty (of climate sensitivity or deep utility parameters), computational techniques can offer some useful approaches to address situations where we lack information. often we lack appropriate data to calibrate model parameters (such as the pure rate of time preference and elasticity of marginal utility of consumption). in this case, modellers often employ assumptions that are deemed reasonable or appropriate with reference to economic theory. within the context of the simulation, an abm approach is able to test the sensitivity of resultant outcomes (such as economic growth and welfare) to such assumptions by running many simulations in which different parameter values are employed. this process is important for robustness testing, and allows modellers to identify which parameters have a greater influence on outcomes than others law 2009 ). we also often lack understanding about probability distributions underlying key model variables (such as economic damages from large temperature increases). in addition, many economic and climate phenomena are best characterised by heavy-tailed or fat-tailed distributions, which makes taking average or expected values inappropriate weitzman 2009 ).14
How would climate change impact future moisture conditions in forests?
climate change would impact future moisture conditions in forests through changes in both temperature and precipitation patterns
What do higher temperatures tend to do?
higher temperatures also tend to decrease the efficiency of water use by plants
What can be said of canada?
in some areas of canada, future increases in precipitation would help offset drying caused by higher temperatures
climate change would impact future moisture conditions in forests through changes in both temperature and precipitation patterns. as the temperature increases, water loss through evapotranspiration increases, resulting in drier conditions. higher temperatures also tend to decrease the efficiency of water use by plants. in some areas of canada, future increases in precipitation would help offset drying caused by higher temperatures.(20)in other regions, however, decreases in precipitation will accentuate the moisture stress caused by warming. changes in the seasonality of precipitation and the occurrence of extreme events, such as droughts and heavy rainfalls, will also be important. for example, treering analysis of aspen poplar in western canada revealed that reduced ring growth was associated with drought events, whereas growth peaks followed periods of cool, moist conditions.(18)
What have adverse global influences on health, such as rising food prices and extended ranges of some infectious diseases, impeded?
attainment of the united nations millennium development goals
What must future global health goals be better integrated with?
the fundamental influences of poverty, inequity, illiteracy, climate change, land-use patterns, and food insecurity on health
After the Rio+20 Conference (2012), what are the Millennium Development Goals to be replaced by?
sustainable development goals in 2016, reflecting the principle set forth at the original rio declaration on environment and development (1992) that concern for humans must be at the center of sustainable development
adverse global influences on health, such as rising food prices and extended ranges of some infectious diseases, have also impeded attainment of the united nations millennium development goals.20 future global health goals must be better integrated with the fundamental influences of poverty, inequity, illiteracy, climate change, land-use patterns, and food insecurity on health. after the rio+20 conference (2012), the millennium development goals are to be replaced by sustainable development goals in 2016, reflecting the principle set forth at the original rio declaration on environment and development (1992) that concern for humans must be at the center of sustainable development. nevertheless, concern for human health is not yet near that center. this reflects the continuing misperception of what health means and the dominance of a narrow, clinically based view that seemingly does not take into account the fundamental need, in improving population health, to address the poor fit between environmental and sociocultural conditions and basic human biologic and psychological needs.
What do the policy-makers and forest managers have  to accept?
policy-makers and forest managers must accept that a significant change in the climate will occur and that forests and forest-dependent communities face significant challenges
What are the agencies responsible for?
the agencies are responsible for setting policies, developing management objectives and approving forest company stewardship plans
On what land are most forests in Canada located?
most of canada's forests are on crown land
current forest utilization and preservation policies and activities are based on how forests developed under past climatic conditions. policy-makers and forest managers must accept that a significant change in the climate will occur and that forests and forest-dependent communities face significant challenges. planned adaptation in forest management will reduce the vulnerability of commercial tree species at selected sites. however, many forest species will have to adapt autonomously and society will have to adjust to the result. until climate change has had sufficient impact to warrant intervention we are limited in what we can do at present on the ground, in the forest; but planning, monitoring, assessing forest vulnerability to climate change and developing adaptation strategies should start now. sustainable forest management already embodies many of the biological, physical and societal actions that will be required to respond to the effects of climate change on forests. including adaptation to climate change as part of forest planning does not necessarily require a large financial investment now with an unknown future payback time. actions can be taken that are useful now, but could also reduce the risk of unacceptable losses in the future. climate change adaptation strategies can be viewed as the risk management component of a sustainable forest management plan. most of canada's forests are on crown land; therefore government agencies must take the lead on applying adaptation in forest management. the agencies are responsible for setting policies, developing management objectives and approving forest company stewardship plans. governments set standards for species selection, seed transfer, stocking, and biodiversity and allocate land to parks and wilderness areas. they are also responsible for maintaining forest health and growth monitoring plots and provenance trials. resulting forest policy changes and social considerations will need to take regional disparities of impacts into account. it is gratifying to see that many government agencies are taking seriously the threat of climate change to the forests and are starting the process of developing adaptation strategies.
what important aspect is needed when analysing dispersed growth and attached growth in sewage treatment?
the comparison between the hydraulic detention time and the cell doubling time
what is needed to have microbial population growth in a dispersed growth systems?
thehydraulicdetentiontime(averagetimethatawatermolecule microbiology and ecology of wastewater treatment 317 stays in the system) has to be greater than the doubling time of the microorganisms, that is, the time necessary to generate new cells
which is a limiting factor for sizing the biological reactors?
the bacteria are "washed" out of the system
when analysing dispersed growth and attached growth in sewage treatment, the comparison between the hydraulic detention time and the cell doubling time is an aspect of great importance. in dispersed growth systems, in order to have microbial populationgrowth,thehydraulicdetentiontime(averagetimethatawatermolecule microbiology and ecology of wastewater treatment 317 stays in the system) has to be greater than the doubling time of the microorganisms, that is, the time necessary to generate new cells. if the hydraulic detention time is less than the cell doubling time, the bacteria are "washed" out of the system. this is a limiting factor for sizing the biological reactors, considering that reactor volume and detention time are directly related (detention time volume/flow). in the case of systems with biofilms, the hydraulic detention times can be less than the cell doubling time, without cell wash-out occurring, because of the fact that the bacteria are attached to a support medium. consequently, it is possible to adopt lower volumes for the reactor. in the comparison between dispersed-growth and attached-growth systems, there are the following aspects relative to attached-growth systems (iwai and kitao, 1994; lubberding, 1995):
Why would the development of new models structures reduce bias?
development of new models structures would also reduce any bias due to the assumption of first-order decomposition across all of the models currently referenced in reports of the ipcc
Has validating decomposition models at the global scale been accomplished yet?
validating decomposition models at the global scale is also a challenge, and has not yet been accomplished with the land carbon models embedded in current gcms
Why is it challenging to parameterize microbial models at the global scale?
parameterizing microbial models at the global scale is challenging because some microbial properties such as in situ extracellular enzyme activities are very difficult to measure directly
accurate prediction of future atmospheric co2 concentrations is essential for evaluating climate change impacts on ecosystems and human societies. one major source of uncertainty in model predictions is the extent to which global warming will increase atmospheric co2 concentrations through enhanced microbial decomposition of soil organic carbon. recent advances in microbial ecology could help reduce this uncertainty, but current global models do not represent direct microbial control over decomposition. instead, all of the coupled climate models reviewed in the most recent intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) report assume that decomposition is a first-order decay process, proportional to the size of the soil carbon pool. here we argue for the development of a new generation of models that link decomposition directly to the size and activity of microbial communities in coupled global models. this process begins with the formulation and validation of fine-scale models that capture fundamental microbial mechanisms without excessive mathematical complexity. these mechanistic models must then be scaled up through an aggregation process and validated at ecosystem to global scales prior to incorporation into global climate models (gcms). parameterizing microbial models at the global scale is challenging because some microbial properties such as in situ extracellular enzyme activities are very difficult to measure directly. new parameter fitting procedures may therefore be needed to infer the values of important microbial variables. validating decomposition models at the global scale is also a challenge, and has not yet been accomplished with the land carbon models embedded in current gcms. fortunately new global datasets on soil carbon stocks and fluxes offer promising opportunities to validate both existing land carbon models and new microbial models. if challenges in scaling, parameterization, and validation can be overcome, a new generation of microbially-based decomposition models could substantially improve predictions of carbon-climate feedbacks in the earth system. development of new models structures would also reduce any bias due to the assumption of first-order decomposition across all of the models currently referenced in reports of the ipcc. keywords coupled climate model  decomposition  global change  microbial community  soil carbon
What effect has laterization had on climate change policies?
the liberalization of energy markets has made the task of local climate change policy even more challenging because these policy objectives are difficult to reconcile
What effect has government intervention played in the EU to promote climate change policy? Give an example of a policy that has been implemented.
while awareness and promotion campaigns have become part of the general repertoire of most cities when it comes to climate change policy, the establishment of new partnerships for the transition of existing infrastructure and services is less common. such arrangements appear to be better suited to the needs of large and competitive cities, such as london or munich, which are highly committed to climate change policy and pursue ambitious ghg reduction goals while also being driven by economic incentives and prospects
What influences big cities to promote climate change policies and give an example of this.
the internationalisation and liberalisation of the energy markets are putting such arrangements under increasing pressure. this applies in particular to european countries which are obliged to implement the eu directives on the liberalisation of the european electricity market. in germany, for example, the 'power industry act' (energiewirtschaftsgesetz) of 1998 has restricted the influence of municipalities over the generation of electricity primarily to their options as shareholders. in the course of the liberalisation of electricity markets, german municipalities have almost entirely lost their potential to influence the supply side of energy because many public utilities have been partly or completely privatised, while most of the remaining municipally owned companies have restricted themselves to the distribution of electricity and buy electricity on the spot market, which is now generated by a limited number of big private companies
enabling activities, which are primarily based on persuasion and arguments, seek to encourage other actors to establish climate protection initiatives. while awareness and promotion campaigns have become part of the general repertoire of most cities when it comes to climate change policy, the establishment of new partnerships for the transition of existing infrastructure and services is less common. such arrangements appear to be better suited to the needs of large and competitive cities, such as london or munich, which are highly committed to climate change policy and pursue ambitious ghg reduction goals while also being driven by economic incentives and prospects. governing by provision: the municipality as provider if a municipality is the majority shareholder in the local utility companies for energy, transport, water and waste services, it is in an excellent position to steer local action on climate change. cities in this position can directly influence the generation of electricity, prioritise district heating systems and combined heat and power (chp) and/or combined cooling and power systems, push for investments in energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies, and can even combine this with funding schemes for private investors. this means that the direct provision of services enables local governments to create infrastructure that generates less ghg emissions. the internationalisation and liberalisation of the energy markets are putting such arrangements under increasing pressure. this applies in particular to european countries which are obliged to implement the eu directives on the liberalisation of the european electricity market. in germany, for example, the 'power industry act' (energiewirtschaftsgesetz) of 1998 has restricted the influence of municipalities over the generation of electricity primarily to their options as shareholders. in the course of the liberalisation of electricity markets, german municipalities have almost entirely lost their potential to influence the supply side of energy because many public utilities have been partly or completely privatised, while most of the remaining municipally owned companies have restricted themselves to the distribution of electricity and buy electricity on the spot market, which is now generated by a limited number of big private companies. demand-side management programmes, which were popular among local utilities, have been almost completely phased out since liberalization. the liberalization of energy markets has made the task of local climate change policy even more challenging because these policy objectives are difficult to reconcile.
why aspects associated with earthmoving are of fundamentally important?
to have a decisive influence on the economy of the plant
Why  inlet, outlet and interconnection between units are very important ?
they have a direct impact on the hydraulic behaviour of the ponds
the operational success of stabilisation ponds depends not only on the process aspects discussed in the previous chapters, but also on the design detailing and on the construction aspects. in general terms, the aspects associated with earthmoving are of fundamental importance, and are likely to have a decisive influence on the economy of the plant. in a more specific aspect, the several details regarding inlet, outlet and interconnection between units are also very important as they have a direct impact on the hydraulic behaviour of the ponds. the detailing aspects should also be considered from the point of view of the operator's needs, in order to make the operational routine of the plant as simple and easy as possible. thistextdoesnothavetheobjectiveoffurtheringthedetailingaspects,andother textbooks should be consulted for this purpose. the following topics emphasise just the most important aspects, to which designers and those in charge of the project should give special attention.
What will significantly advance our understanding of how climate change will alter the distribution?
testing model assumptions and mechanisms in a range of natural contexts and comparing their relative importance as competing models in a rigorous statistical framework will significantly advance our understanding of how climate change will alter the distribution
What the mechanistic and phenomenological models suggest?
both mechanistic and phenomenological models suggest dramatic range expansions of ixodes ticks and tick-borne disease as the climate warms
What is  reviewed and evaluated from Washington State University?
the evidence that climate warming is changing the distribution of ixodes ticks and the pathogens they transmit is reviewed and evaluated
cary institute of ecosystem studies, po box ab, millbrook, ny 12545, usa 2school of biological sciences, washington state university, pullman, wa 99164, usa the evidence that climate warming is changing the distribution of ixodes ticks and the pathogens they transmit is reviewed and evaluated. the primary approaches are either phenomenological, which typically assume that climate alone limits current and future distributions, or mechanistic, asking which tick-demographic parameters are affected by specific abiotic conditions. both approaches have promise but are severely limited when applied separately. for instance, phenomenological approaches (e.g. climate envelope models) often select abiotic variables arbitrarily and produce results that can be hard to interpretbiologically. on the other hand, althoughlaboratorystudies demonstrate strict temperature and humidity thresholds for tick survival, these limits rarely apply to field situations. similarly, no studies address the influence of abiotic conditions on more than a few life stages, transitions or demographic processes, preventing comprehensive assessments. nevertheless, despite their divergent approaches, both mechanistic and phenomenological models suggest dramatic range expansions of ixodes ticks and tick-borne disease as the climate warms. the predicted distributions, however, vary strongly with the models' assumptions, which are rarely tested against reasonable alternatives. these inconsistencies, limited data about key tick-demographic and climatic processes and only limited incorporation of non-climatic processes have weakened the application of this rich area of research to public health policy or actions. we urge further investigation of the influence of climate on vertebrate hosts and tick-borne pathogen dynamics. in addition, testing model assumptions and mechanisms in a range of natural contexts and comparing their relative importance as competing models in a rigorous statistical framework will significantly advance our understanding of how climate change will alter the distribution, dynamics and risk of tick-borne disease.
what is your role in late Pleistocene glacial cycles3-7 ?
the southern ocean increases during ice ages, and 'iron fertilization' of the subantarctic zone may have contributed up to 40 parts per million by volume (p.p.m.v.) of the decrease (80-100 p.p.m.v.) in atmospheric carbon dioxide observed during late pleistocene glacial cycles3-7
Does dust have the potential to change the global climate?
dust has the potential to modify global climate by influencing the radiative balance of the atmosphere and by supplying iron and other essential limiting micronutrients to the ocean1,2
Iron scarcity reduces marine export production and carbon absorption by how many quarters ?
the scarcity of iron reduces marine export production and carbon uptake in one-quarter of the world ocean where the concentration of major nutrients (phosphorus and nitrogen) is perennially high10
dust has the potential to modify global climate by influencing the radiative balance of the atmosphere and by supplying iron and other essential limiting micronutrients to the ocean1,2. indeed, dust supply to the southern ocean increases during ice ages, and 'iron fertilization' of the subantarctic zone may have contributed up to 40 parts per million by volume (p.p.m.v.) of the decrease (80-100 p.p.m.v.) in atmospheric carbon dioxide observed during late pleistocene glacial cycles3-7. so far, however, the magnitude of southern ocean dust deposition in earlier times and its role in the development and evolution of pleistocene glacial cycles have remained unclear. here we report a high-resolution record of dust and iron supply to the southern ocean over the past four million years, derived from the analysis of marine sediments from odp site 1090, located in the atlantic sector of the subantarctic zone. the close correspondence of our dust and iron deposition records with antarctic ice core reconstructions of dust flux covering the past 800,000 years (refs 8, 9) indicates that both of these archives record large-scale deposition changes that should apply to most of the southern ocean, validating previous interpretations of the ice core data. the extension of the record beyond the interval covered by the antarctic ice cores reveals that, in contrast to the relatively gradual intensification of glacial cycles over the past three million years, southern ocean dust and iron flux rose sharply at the midpleistocene climatic transition around 1.25 million years ago. this finding complements previous observations over late pleistocene glacial cycles5,8,9, providing new evidence of a tight connection between high dust input to the southern ocean and the emergence of the deep glaciations that characterize the past one million years of earth history. the scarcity of iron reduces marine export production and carbon uptake in one-quarter of the world ocean where the concentration of major nutrients (phosphorus and nitrogen) is perennially high10
What are the factors that influence significant increases or decreases of crop yields in most regions?
depending on climate scenario (not shown) and the assumptions on the effectiveness of co2 fertilization, most regions may experience significant decreases in crop yields as well as significant increases
how does uncertainty in CO2 fertilization increase crop yields significantly?
the most important factor is the uncertainty in co2 fertilization which was explicitly analyzed here. this effect can, in principle, increase crop yields considerably due to enhanced carbon assimilation rates as well as improved water-use efficiency
What happens if CO2 fertilization is switched off?
if the co2 fertilization is switched off, however, many regions, especially tropical croplands are uniformly projected to experience decreases in crop yields in all 15 climate scenarios
the climate change effect on crop yields is highly uncertain. depending on climate scenario (not shown) and the assumptions on the effectiveness of co2 fertilization, most regions may experience significant decreases in crop yields as well as significant increases. the most important factor is the uncertainty in co2 fertilization which was explicitly analyzed here. this effect can, in principle, increase crop yields considerably due to enhanced carbon assimilation rates as well as improved water-use efficiency. whether or not farmers will be able to attain increased crop yields under elevated atmospheric co2 concentrations will depend on the availability of additional inputs, especially nitrogen increased carbon assimilation rates can only be converted into productive plant tissue or the harvested storage organs if sufficient nutrients are available to sustain additional growth. where plant growth is constrained by nutrient limitations, additional growth is limited. on top of that, there is some likelihood that the quality of agricultural products decreases under increased co2 fertilization, as e.g. the protein content diminishes there is also evidence that crops grown under elevated co2 concentrations might be more susceptible to insect pests a positive climate-change effect on crop yields may be expected in regions currently constrained by too low temperatures, as in the northern high latitudes and in mountainous regions. here, all 30 model runs uniformly indicate increases in crop yields by 2050. by contrast, there is hardly any location where all model runs uniformly indicate decreases in crop yields if co2 fertilization is assumed to occur. if the co2 fertilization is switched off, however, many regions, especially tropical croplands are uniformly projected to experience decreases in crop yields in all 15 climate scenarios. it has to be noted that the beneficial effects of co2 fertilization are subject to heavy debate [6,7] results presented here only indicate the order of magnitude of climate-related impacts on crop yields. besides uncertainties in future development of drivers (climate change, co2 fertilization effect, management, technological change), modelling of crop yields at large scales adds to the overall uncertainty as many processes are necessarily implemented only in a simplified manner. if farmers have access to a broad selection of crop varieties, they are likely to select varieties most suited for the local growing conditions, which could not be fully considered here.
What are the three types of systems used to grow crops?
irrigated, rainfed commercial and rainfed subsistenc
The results are split between what categories?
between developing and developed countries
this article is protected by copyright. all rights reserved. totals for 2000, and details crops grown in three types of system (irrigated, rainfed commercial and rainfed subsistence). multiple cropping is also taken into account. we then calculated total kilocalorie production from both livestock and the 14 crops at a resolution of 5 arc-minutes (gridcells of side about 9 km at the equator). each gridcell was then stratified on the basis of rainfall variability. to do this, we utilised a weather generator, marksim, and methods outlined in jones and thornton (2013) to estimate the coefficient of variation (cv) of annual rainfall for the globe, from 100 years of generated daily rainfall data. we estimated the human population in each stratum (ciesin, 2005a). to relate climate variability to some proxy of food insecurity, we used the subnational data set of ciesin (2005b) on the proportion of children under 5 who are underweight for their age, and again estimated the average proportion for each stratum. the human population and children underweight datasets are both for the year 2000. results are shown in table 3, split between developing and developed countries. here we defined the developing countries as those in the americas between mexico in the north and brazil, paraguay, bolivia and peru in the south, all of africa, and in asia up to 45 degn excluding japan. the remainder we classified as developed countries.
What was each person assigned as for this game?
either a potential donor or a potential receiver
Who was aware of the contributions to all players?
everybody knew about the contributions of all players
Was there direct reciprocity?
no
for this game each person was assigned repeatedly as either a potential donor or a potential receiver. for example, a potential donor, say, telesto, was asked on the public screen whether he  she would give to galatea. telesto would lose eur 1.50 from her  his account, and galatea would gain eur 3 to his  her account if telesto decided ''yes.'' telesto's decision (yes or no) was displayed for 2 s on the public screen. everybody knew about the contributions of all players, for example, whether galatea had given both in previous rounds when she  he had been playing as a potential donor and in previous nonanonymous climate public goods rounds (see below). the subjects also knew that there would be no direct reciprocity; if a has been the potential donor of b, b would never be the potential donor of a. in each round of the indirect reciprocity game, each of the six players was once a potential donor and once a potential receiver; i.e., there are six ''subrounds'' for each round of this game.
what does the comparison of most past studies shows?
in comparison to most past studies, it is clear that kumar's assessment provides a more accurate picture of the potential impacts of climate change on indian agriculture. it also shows the importance of incorporating spatial effects into any similar analysis
what does kumar highlights?
kumar highlights the main sources of information that farmers use to help them adapt to climate and other changes (assessed through focus group discussions
what does kumar concludes?
kumar therefore concludes that policy makers should explore and experiment with new ways of getting information out to farmers. given the fragmented nature of indian agricultural lands, large-scale participation of the corporate sector may be difficult
in comparison to most past studies, it is clear that kumar's assessment provides a more accurate picture of the potential impacts of climate change on indian agriculture. it also shows the importance of incorporating spatial effects into any similar analysis. to show how his results could be converted into useful policies, kumar highlights the main sources of information that farmers use to help them adapt to climate and other changes (assessed through focus group discussions). these sources include the more affluent farmers in an area, fertilizer and pesticide dealers, seed providers, and better-informed family members. contrary to popular belief, agricultural extension centres do not operate as a primary source of information. kumar therefore concludes that policy makers should explore and experiment with new ways of getting information out to farmers. given the fragmented nature of indian agricultural lands, large-scale participation of the corporate sector may be difficult. furthermore, farmers seem to favour the participation of agricultural cooperatives, ngos, and fertilizer dealers. the above proposals deal largely with private adaptation measures undertaken by farmers, for whom adapting to climate change is preferable to doing nothing. however, dealing with climate change also requires largescale public adaptation measures. there is considerable policy analysis that needs to be done on the different public adaptation strategies that will help ameliorate the adverse impacts of climate change on indian agriculture.
What are the possible reduction?
overall, the results indicate possible reductions in pest and disease distribution and prevalence across the continent, with notable hotspots where increases in prevalence are projected (figure 6). however, these results should be taken with caution. first, these are based only on environmental niche based approaches, which use the present distribution of the pest or disease to train a statistical model that describes the climate conditions likely to harbor the pest or disease. the model is only as good as the data used to develop it
What is pest and disease control?
overall, the results indicate possible reductions in pest and disease distribution and prevalence across the continent, with notable hotspots where increases in prevalence are projected (figure 6). however, these results should be taken with caution. first, these are based only on environmental niche based approaches, which use the present distribution of the pest or disease to train a statistical model that describes the climate conditions likely to harbor the pest or disease. the model is only as good as the data used to develop it
What is the distribution accross the continent
overall, the results indicate possible reductions in pest and disease distribution and prevalence across the continent, with notable hotspots where increases in prevalence are projected (figure 6). however, these results should be taken with caution. first, these are based only on environmental niche based approaches, which use the present distribution of the pest or disease to train a statistical model that describes the climate conditions likely to harbor the pest or disease. the model is only as good as the data used to develop it
overall, the results indicate possible reductions in pest and disease distribution and prevalence across the continent, with notable hotspots where increases in prevalence are projected (figure 6). however, these results should be taken with caution. first, these are based only on environmental niche based approaches, which use the present distribution of the pest or disease to train a statistical model that describes the climate conditions likely to harbor the pest or disease. the model is only as good as the data used to develop it, and hence biases in presence data may affect the result. furthermore, the geographic distribution of these pests and diseases may not be limited by climate, but rather host plants or other biological factors; hence any shift in the geographic distribution of cassava (assessed in sect. 3.2) may broaden the geographic and environmental range of the pest or disease. these analyses also assume zero adaptation of the pests and diseases themselves, but evidence based on the past century indicates that the rate of evolution of new pathogens is significant (gregory et al., 2009; patil and fauquet, 2009; winter et al., 2010). hence those regions where the pest or disease is predicted to lose suitability may continue to suffer as the insect or virus evolves or adapts to the novel conditions. an important next step for research would be to combine abiotic models with biotic models, which unfortunately is not possible with the currently available models. 3.5. abiotic breeding priorities figure 7 shows the fractional area of cassava producing regions and other lands that would potentially benefit under a 2030 climate from crop improvement on abiotic tolerances to drought, waterlogging, heat and cold. regional specificities in these crop improvement priorities are shown in figure 8. many cassava growing regions (>80% of area) are
Where does one opportunity for integrated development and climate policies in rural areas come from?
one opportunity for integrated development and climate policies in rural areas comes from the emerging bioenergy market. bioenergy crops not only generate income for farmers, they can also improve the rural renewable energy supply and national energy security, and they have potential as an export commodity
What are the possible trade-offs with food production?
however, there are possible trade-offs with food production. on the one hand, investments in bioenergy crops could be mutually reinforcing, since market and transport conditions and inputs for productive and efficient biofuel and food production systems are similar. farmers' income could increase, and better agricultural policies to deal with drought and erosion will directly influence the food security of the poor. on the other hand, competition for land and labour could have a negative effect on local food production and food prices, and increase dependency on food imports, especially when large-scale bioenergy markets emerge. in that case, biodiversity also becomes a concern (undp, 2000; sow and saint sernin, 2005; hunt and sawin, 2006; ipcc, 2007b
Current scenarios for biofuel production up until 2030, require what?
current scenarios for biofuel production up until 2030, however, do not require more than 4% of the world's arable lands (iea, 2006
one opportunity for integrated development and climate policies in rural areas comes from the emerging bioenergy market. bioenergy crops not only generate income for farmers, they can also improve the rural renewable energy supply and national energy security, and they have potential as an export commodity. however, there are possible trade-offs with food production. on the one hand, investments in bioenergy crops could be mutually reinforcing, since market and transport conditions and inputs for productive and efficient biofuel and food production systems are similar. farmers' income could increase, and better agricultural policies to deal with drought and erosion will directly influence the food security of the poor. on the other hand, competition for land and labour could have a negative effect on local food production and food prices, and increase dependency on food imports, especially when large-scale bioenergy markets emerge. in that case, biodiversity also becomes a concern (undp, 2000; sow and saint sernin, 2005; hunt and sawin, 2006; ipcc, 2007b). current scenarios for biofuel production up until 2030, however, do not require more than 4% of the world's arable lands (iea, 2006). experience from several countries shows that national biofuel policies could benefit from careful analyses of the local circumstances regarding problems with food, labour and biodiversity, better regional market integration to allow bioenergy cash crops to reach the relevant markets, and improved coordination between agricultural and energy policies (dubash and bradley, 2005; sow and saint sernin, 2005; dufey, 2007; shukla, 2007).
At temperatures above what Celsius degree suffered heat stress and did not behave in a natural manner, detrimentally affecting oviposition rates?
at temperatures above 30 deg c, butterflies within the microhabitat cages suffered heat stress and did not behave in a natural manner, detrimentally affecting oviposition rates
Is it likely that the maximum temperature is often exceeded in Britain at present?
it is unlikely that this maximum is often or ever exceeded in britain at present
the mean egg-laying rate of h. comma females increased with rising ambient temperatures, indicating that egg-laying is temperature-dependent. the trend was exemplified by the significantly greater egg-laying rate of butterflies on the south-facing site, in comparison with those on the cooler north-facing slope. at temperatures above 30 deg c, butterflies within the microhabitat cages suffered heat stress and did not behave in a natural manner, detrimentally affecting oviposition rates. under natural conditions, there would indeed be a maximum temperature above which egg-laying rates would decline. however, it is unlikely that this maximum is often or ever exceeded in britain at present. the response of the butterflies can be attributed
What do the results suggest about model validation procedures?
our results suggest the need for better model validation procedures that are multivariate
What two things are required to deal with a large number of global processes and model them jointly?
dealing with a large number of global processes and modeling them jointly requires significant computing resources and efficient computational methods
we presented the results of quantification of aogcm model biases and their dependence across different models. based on our analysis, many aogcm models, especially those developed by same parent organizations, have highly correlated biases and thus the effective number of "independent" aogcm models are much less than the actual number of models. this lets us to form subgroups of models that share "common" features and to find better strategy in combining the informations from different model outputs rather than taking a naive average. we also demonstrated that the perfor20 mance of aogcm models on the mean state has little relationship with its performance in reproducing the observed climate trend. this conflicts with a standard assumption used to interpret different aogcm projections of future climate. our results suggest the need for better model validation procedures that are multivariate. eventually we are interested in building joint statistical models to combine all of the climate models with observations. our results show that the statistical approaches in tebaldi et al. (2005), furrer et al. (2007) and smith et al. (2006) may need to be extended due to the biasedness of the climate models and more importantly the dependence among biases from different aogcms. to achieve this requires flexible cross-covariance models that are valid on a sphere. another challenge in this task is the spatial analysis of large data sets. dealing with a large number of global processes and modeling them jointly requires significant computing resources and efficient computational methods. our correlation estimates are based on the mle estimates given in tables 2 and 3 and the necessary uncertainty about these estimates has not been discussed in the paper. to study the uncertainty of the estimates, it would be natural to consider bayesian hierarchical model framework. 21
How many sources have been built the social vulnerability?
social vulnerability indices have been built have arisen from two main sources: socioeconomic and institutional analysis of resource entitlement sen, 1981 ), and evolutionary ecology holling, 1973 
The entitlements approach on what focus more?
the entitlements approach focuses on the influence of politics, institutions and culture on individuals' access to resources, noting that the social conventions governing these rights can be complex sen, 1981 p. 46
Who transformed the entitlements approach into rural livelihoods analysis and on what have been applied?
chambers (1989) scoones (1998) and ellis (2000) have transformed the entitlements approach into rural livelihoods analysis which integrates the social, economic and biophysical elements of vulnerability. the entitlements approach and rural livelihoods analysis have both been applied to create social vulnerability indices (e.g. kelly and adger, 2000; nelson et al., 2005 
the more holistic and integrated perspectives of vulnerability and adaptive capacity on which social vulnerability indices have been built have arisen from two main sources: socioeconomic and institutional analysis of resource entitlement sen, 1981 ), and evolutionary ecology holling, 1973 ). entitlements approaches focus on the welfare of individuals, households and businesses that are subject to multiple hazards and opportunities in a changing world. they draw attention to the elements of coping and adaptation that are independent of specific hazards. sen (1981, p. 154) directly challenged the central premise of hazard assessment, that famines were primarily caused by biophysical events such as drought, flood and pests. he demonstrated that a number of major famines in history had taken place without a substantial decline in food availability. he then proposed an entitlements approach that conceptualised vulnerability to famine in terms of the actual and potential resources available to individuals based on their own production, assets and reciprocal access to the resources of others adger, 2006 p. 270). the entitlements approach focuses on the influence of politics, institutions and culture on individuals' access to resources, noting that the social conventions governing these rights can be complex sen, 1981 p. 46). seeking explanations for famine that transcend hazards such as climatic events enabled sen to identify a range of trade, governance and agricultural policy principles with potential to directly reduce the vulnerability of rural communities. however, this focus on politics, institutions and cultures has been criticised for downplaying ecological or physical risk adger, 2006 ). this has been partially overcome in subsequent developments of the approach to create a more integrated conceptual framework for analysing the vulnerability of rural communities. following chambers (1989) scoones (1998) and ellis (2000) have transformed the entitlements approach into rural livelihoods analysis which integrates the social, economic and biophysical elements of vulnerability. the entitlements approach and rural livelihoods analysis have both been applied to create social vulnerability indices (e.g. kelly and adger, 2000; nelson et al., 2005 ).
What is the Special Climate Change Fund?
adaptation, technology transfer, capacity building and climate change mitigation
What is the LDCs Fund?
assistance for the development of national adaptation programmes of action - napas
growing attention is also paid to the emergence of adaptation issues in the developing world, especially in ldcs. in 2001, the marrakech accords, issued at the seventh conference of the parties (cop-7), emphasize the importance for developing countries to receive more support from the international community to support their adaptation efforts. the accords introduce new funds for the following actions:  the special climate change fund (adaptation, technology transfer, capacity building and climate change mitigation) and the ldcs fund (assistance for the development of national adaptation programmes of action - napas), both under the unfccc and managed by the global environment facility (gef);
Aerated lagoons are what?
less simple in terms of operation and maintenance
e energy requirements are similar to or only slightly higher than what?
those in the facultative aerated lagoons
Figure 4.12 illustrates  what?
the flowsheet of the system
aerated lagoons are less simple in terms of operation and maintenance, when compared with the conventional facultative ponds, owing to the of mechanisation. therefore, the reduction of the reduction of the land requirements is achieved with a certain rising in the operational level, along with the of electricity consumption. d) complete-mix aerated lagoon - sedimentation pond systems a way of reducing the aerated pond volume even further is to increase the aeration level per unit volume of the lagoon, thus creating a turbulence that, besides guaranteeing oxygenation, allows all the solids to be maintained in suspension in the liquid medium. the denomination of complete mix is because of the high degree of energy per unit volume, which is responsible for the total mixing of all the constituents in the pond. amongst the solids maintained in suspension and in complete mixing are the biomass, besides the organic matter of the raw sewage. there is, therefore, a larger concentration of bacteria in the liquid medium as well as a larger organic matter - biomass contact. consequently, the efficiency of the system increases and allows the volume of the aerated pond to be greatly reduced. the typical detention time in an aerated pond is in the order of 2 to 4 days. however, in spite of the high efficiency of this lagoon in the removal of the organic matter originally present in the sewage, a new problem is created. the biomass stays in suspension in all the volume and thus leaves with the pond effluent. this biomass is, in a way, also organic matter (particulate bod), even if of a different nature of the bod of the raw sewage. if this new organic matter were discharged into the receiving body, it would also exert an oxygen demand and cause a deterioration in the water quality. therefore, it is important that there is a unit downstream in which the suspended solids (predominantly the biomass) can settle and be separated from the liquid overview of wastewater treatment systems 189 (final effluent). this unit is a sedimentation pond with the main purpose of permitting the settling and accumulation of the solids. the sedimentation pond is designed with short detention times, around 2 days. in this period, the solids will go to the bottom where they will undergo digestion and be stored for a period of some years, after which they will be removed. there are also sedimentation ponds with continuous removal of the bottom sludge, using, for instance, pumps mounted on rafts. the land required for this pond system is the smallest within the pond systems. the energy requirements are similar to or only slightly higher than those in the facultative aerated lagoons. however, the aspects related to sludge handling can be more complicated, due to the fact that there is a smaller storage period in the pond compared with the other systems. if the sludge is removed periodically, this will take place with an approximate frequency of around 2 to 5 years. the removal of the sludge is a laborious and expensive task. figure 4.12 illustrates the flowsheet of the system.
What do the dominant climate fluctuations in the tropical Atlantic sector seem to include?
two distinctive patterns associated with the year-to-year variation in the annual migration of the atlantic marine itcz complex
During boreal spring, where do the warmest SSTs appear?
in the deep tropics
Where are precipitation and SST below normal?
on the southern flank of the climatological itcz position and above
the dominant climate fluctuations in the tropical atlantic sector seem to include two distinctive patterns associated with the year-to-year variation in the annual migration of the atlantic marine itcz complex. these two patterns manifest themselves most clearly during the two seasons when the atlantic itcz moves farthest south during the boreal spring (march-april) and farthest north during the boreal summer (june-august). during boreal spring the warmest ssts appear in the deep tropics and maximum seasonal precipitation moves to the western equatorial atlantic and the adjacent land region of tropical south america. during this season the anomaly of rainfall from its seasonal cycle is characterized by a dipolar pattern across the thermal equator, as shown by the leading eof of the march- april rainfall anomaly (fig. 7). correlated with this precipitation anomaly is an anomalous meridional sst gradient and crossequatorial winds. these correlations reflect a dynamically consistent situation where a stronger-than-normal northward sst gradient drives northward crossequatorial winds with weaker-than-normal trades in the north and stronger-than-normal trades in the south. precipitation and sst are below normal on the southern flank of the climatological itcz position and above
Why does the North Atlantic Ocean move heat north at all latitudes?
because of the north atlantic branch of the thc, with deep sinking at high latitudes compensated by northward flow at the surface and southward flow at depth, the north atlantic ocean moves heat northward at all latitudes
In addition to THC, what else contributes to ocean heat?
not all of this ocean heat transport (oht) is due to the thc as the subtropical and subpolar gyres and wind-driven overturning also contribute
because of the north atlantic branch of the thc, with deep sinking at high latitudes compensated by northward flow at the surface and southward flow at depth, the north atlantic ocean moves heat northward at all latitudes. the following discussion is based on seager et al. (2002). the north atlantic ocean moves about 0.8pw across 35*n (trenberth and caron 2001), enough to warm the area north of 35*n by 3 - 4*c this pales in comparison to a warming of 27*c due to the vastly greater atmosphere heat transport across 35*n and a warming of another 27*c in winter due to seasonal release of heat stored since the last winter. not all of this ocean heat transport (oht) is due to the thc as the subtropical and subpolar gyres and wind-driven overturning also contribute. those circulations persist even when the thc is weakened or shuts down leaving a poleward oht, though one that is greatly reduced. the heat transported by the north atlantic ocean is released to the atmosphere primarily in two regions. the first is in the gulf stream region east of north america where, during winter, cold, dry air from the continent flows over the warm waters offshore extracting up to 400 wm- 2, in the seasonal mean, from the ocean. a sizeable portion of this heat is picked up by transient eddies atmosphere storms paleo.circ february 28, 2005
How can younger generations be motivated to work on farming under current unstable circumstances?
incentives will have to be invented, to encourage the younger generation to stay on the farm and produce food for both rural and urban consumption in the future, especially as the demand from urban areas will increase
Why are people turning away from farming?
in view of external socio-economic pressures, farmers disengage themselves from entirely agriculturally-based production activities to a more mixed kit of several survival options. it appears that changes in climate variability are also encouraging a shift away from farming
What conclusions were drawn about the village of Ankilla's drought in 2009?
it appeared that the drought impacts were harsher than what farmers had anticipated prior to the onset. the farmers reported that these drought times were hard on everyone and that it had affected them in many ways. all of the farmers that the field team met with had experienced crop loss
as evidenced by the study population's reliance on loans, nregs and migration, the farmer as a social actor is changing. the formally recognised 'farmer' of the past is becoming increasingly reliant on multiple sources of income other than farming. with women increasingly taking on waged labour, it is possible that gender roles are shifting. however, their entry into off-farm activities is usually centred in low-return easy-entry activities. unequal access to diversification opportunities often exacerbates inequalities. these are shifts that have also been documented in other traditional societies in transition: in view of external socio-economic pressures, farmers disengage themselves from entirely agriculturally-based production activities to a more mixed kit of several survival options. it appears that changes in climate variability are also encouraging a shift away from farming. while the government is supplying support to these 'new' farmers, it is not clear whether this support will be sufficient under continued changing climate conditions. incentives will have to be invented, to encourage the younger generation to stay on the farm and produce food for both rural and urban consumption in the future, especially as the demand from urban areas will increase. in a similar vein, how the 'formal' farmers who are no longer farming are coping both in the short and long-term as well as how they could be supported to remain on the land also warrants further investigation. the future: lessons for support in times of drought in the summer of 2009, after the conclusion of the field work for this study, the dreaded drought became a reality in both anantapur and mahbubnagar district. not only did the rainfall arrive late, when it finally did arrive just before harvest, it resulted in floods in some areas. on 9 september, 2009, the government of andhra pradesh declared 971 mandals in 21 districts as drought affected, including the two mandals in which the study villages are located (gooty in anantapur and koilkonda in mahbubnagar) (a mandal is an administrative level within a district) (government of andhra pradesh, 2009). the field team visited the village of ankilla in mahbubnagar district in the aftermath of the drought, for three days at the end of september, 2009, to get a snapshot of what the farmers' and government's responses had been. it appeared that the drought impacts were harsher than what farmers had anticipated prior to the onset. the farmers reported that these drought times were hard on everyone and that it had affected them in many ways. all of the farmers that the field team met with had experienced crop loss. sorghum (the june to september season crop) failed for most farmers because of lack of rain. the lucky few who managed to get some yield were wary that the untimely rains would damage that, too. the sorghum crop sown in june was completely destroyed by rains that came
Where did the tower blocks of the Hulme development stood in 1968?
in manchester today, where the concrete modernist tower blocks of the hulme development stood in 1968
what replaced the  tower blocks of the Hulme?
in manchester today, where the concrete modernist tower blocks of the hulme development stood in 1968, which have been subsequently torn down and re-replaced by terraced streets of housing, there rises a new generation of speculative residential towers
When did the  concrete modernist tower blocks of the Hulme development stood?
in manchester today, where the concrete modernist tower blocks of the hulme development stood in 1968
in manchester today, where the concrete modernist tower blocks of the hulme development stood in 1968, which have been subsequently torn down and re-replaced by terraced streets of housing, there rises a new generation of speculative residential towers. these privately developed apartment blocks, often empty during the property slump of 2007 - 2008, have several differences from the hulme blocks. whereas the 1960s ' tower blocks were built to last forever as first class social housing built by idealists in the city council, the modern towers are cheap investment vehicles and many, to be at all comfortable in mid-summer or winter, have to have air conditioning. high above them all, in a statement of architectural supremacy, is the betham tower of
Where has the political discourse on climate change been debated?
the political discourse on climate change has been debated through the unfccc
What has the past agenda of the UNFCCC mainly focused on?
but in the past the agenda has focused mainly on mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions
What has the shift in focus between policy makers and academics begun to debate?
recently, there has been a shift in focus, where policy makers and academics have begun to debate the issues surrounding adaptation to future climate impacts and to consider the implications for the future
the political discourse on climate change has been debated through the unfccc, but in the past the agenda has focused mainly on mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. recently, there has been a shift in focus, where policy makers and academics have begun to debate the issues surrounding adaptation to future climate impacts and to consider the implications for the future.(10) in addition, all parties to the convention, including south africa, agreed to adopt national programmes for mitigation and adaptation and describe these in "national communications".(11) however, this has been focused mainly at the national level, and the resources and capacity at local level to deal with the implementation and operational issues are not always considered. for the city of cape town, for example, the only relevant study has been the climate impact assessment for the western cape, commissioned by the provincial government.(12)
The issue of welfare was studied by who?
a number of cv studies have addressed the issue of welfare gain from various climate change policy interventions (e.g. berk and fovell 1999; berrens et al. 2004; cameron 2005; viscusi and zeckhauser 2006; lee and cameron 2008
who's study is the most imporant?
berk and fovell's (1999) study is one of the first cv 5 5 studies attempting to estimate the welfare gain associated with climate change mitigation
Describe Berk and Fovell's study
in a public survey carried out with los angeles area residents, they used eight different climate change scenarios (four summers and four winters). the findings suggested that respondents' wtp is influenced primarily by increases in temperature during the summer scenarios and decreases in precipitation during the winter scenarios. further, wtp was found to be influenced by respondents' concerns regarding the impact of climate change on the quality of life, wildlife habitats, the economy and what future generations will inherit
a number of cv studies have addressed the issue of welfare gain from various climate change policy interventions (e.g. berk and fovell 1999; berrens et al. 2004; cameron 2005; viscusi and zeckhauser 2006; lee and cameron 2008). berk and fovell's (1999) study is one of the first cv 5 5 studies attempting to estimate the welfare gain associated with climate change mitigation. in a public survey carried out with los angeles area residents, they used eight different climate change scenarios (four summers and four winters). the findings suggested that respondents' wtp is influenced primarily by increases in temperature during the summer scenarios and decreases in precipitation during the winter scenarios. further, wtp was found to be influenced by respondents' concerns regarding the impact of climate change on the quality of life, wildlife habitats, the economy and what future generations will inherit.
Who prepared CCSM3 model for simulations?
yeager et al. 2006; collins et al. 2006
Which configuration allows to run multiple realizations of a wide range of multicentury scenarios?
modest t31 atmospheric resolution ' 3.75 8 3 3.75 8 and nominally 3 8 ocean resolution
How many scenarios are there in  AOGCM runs used in the work ?
consist of five scenarios
to explore the problem of emulating climate under arbitrary forcing scenarios, we built a collection of climate model runs to be used for training and prediction. these runs are driven by different trajectories of future co2 concentration and have different initial conditions but all are performed with the same model and same representation of model physics. simulations were performed with the community climate system model, version 3 (ccsm3; yeager et al. 2006; collins et al. 2006), at a relatively modest t31 atmospheric resolution ' 3.75 8 3 3.75 8 and nominally 3 8 ocean resolution, a configuration that allows us to run multiple realizations of a wide range of multicentury scenarios. since we are interested in capturing the effects of changing co2 on climate, in all runs all other greenhouse gases and aerosols are held fixed at their preindustrial values. the aogcm runs used in the work described here consist of five scenarios: three with gradual rise and
The relevance of adaptation for health related goals 4-6 becomes clear if one considers what?
the relevance of adaptation for health related goals 4-6 becomes clear if one considers the projected impact of climate change on vector born diseases, e.g. dengue fever or malaria, which is particularly dangerous for pregnant women and young children
What is a consequence of climate change relative to vector born diseases?
moreover, climate change will reduce the availability of clean drinking water and thus increase the cases of diarrhea with often fatal consequences especially for children
In what ways do these consequences more greatly impact women as compared to men?
consequences for women are often worse than for men: mothers' burden is increased; they have to care for the ill children and go longer distances to fetch fresh water for their household activities. in case of sickness, girls are often sent to the doctor at a later stage than boys, sometimes too late
the relevance of adaptation for health related goals 4-6 becomes clear if one considers the projected impact of climate change on vector born diseases, e.g. dengue fever or malaria, which is particularly dangerous for pregnant women and young children. moreover, climate change will reduce the availability of clean drinking water and thus increase the cases of diarrhea with often fatal consequences especially for children. consequences for women are often worse than for men: mothers' burden is increased; they have to care for the ill children and go longer distances to fetch fresh water for their household activities. in case of sickness, girls are often sent to the doctor at a later stage than boys, sometimes too late. this creates a link to goal 3. moreover, the empirical literature shows a negative indirect link between ill health and education, as well as between poverty and education in general (see e.g. michaelowa 2001a and 2001b). thus, indirectly, even goal 2 is concerned. and finally, global partnerships, as called for by goal 8, encompass the cooperation between developed and developing countries to help 12 12 the latter to adjust to the adverse effects of climate change. cooperation with small island states is specifically mentioned under target 1.
Define R&D focus?
our focus is on understanding how current investment in r&d has the potential to lower abatement costs 40 to 50 years in the future
Why we have to identify areas?
 we asked an initial set of experts to identify areas where there was potential for signi fi cant progress or even breakthroughs within this timeframe
What does ccs technology do?
ccs technologies involve removing carbon at the point of energy production so that it can be stored rather than released into the atmosphere. there are three main categories of ccs corresponding to three points in the process: pre-combustion carbon capture, alternative combustion, and post-combustion removal
our focus is on understanding how current investment in r&d has the potential to lower abatement costs 40 to 50 years in the future. hence, we asked an initial set of experts to identify areas where there was potential for signi fi cant progress or even breakthroughs within this timeframe. ccs technologies involve removing carbon at the point of energy production so that it can be stored rather than released into the atmosphere. there are three main categories of ccs corresponding to three points in the process: pre-combustion carbon capture, alternative combustion, and post-combustion removal. several key technologies within each area were identi fi ed, in part so that we could consider the potential return from a range of investment levels. these technologies (as well as a more comprehensive list of developing technologies) are described at length in, for example, and pre-combustion capture works in conjunction with igcc (integrated gasi fi cation combined cycle, which produces syngas from coal) to remove co2 from coal-generated syngas, resulting in a stream of hydrogen to be used for combustion. challenges are to make this process energy e ffi cient and robust. technologies that remove co2 during combustion are more varied and involve changing the environment in which combustion 5 occurs so that carbon is not released. we originally considered two promising directions. chemical looping uses fi ne solid particles to carry oxygen to react with the fuel and then carry co2 away from the reaction without release into the air. this technology faces the challenge of fi nding particles that are both e ff ective and durable at high enough temperatures. supercritical water oxidation (for which we modeled the impact of a successful technology, but did not assess probabilities) dissolves co2 as it forms, allowing it to be processed without being released as a gas. post-combustion co2 separation removes co2 from fl ue gases, through several possible means: membranes, solvents, stimulus or cryogenic methods. its challenges involve fi nding materials that are e ff ective, safe, and inexpensive to create and operate, even on existing power plants. this covers (at a high level, and not exhaustively) a wide range of capture technologies in various stages of r&d.
Does where the impact occurs effect whether mitigation is successful in reducing damages?
since mitigation reduces damages regardless of where they occur, its marginal benefits are not affected by uncertainty over the distribution of impacts
What does affect the success rate of mitigation?
they are of course affected by the uncertainty over the magnitude of impacts
What is one factor that affects the optimal level of reactive adaptation in a region?
the optimal level of reactive adaptation in the region that is effectively hit by the extreme weather event is also likely to vary relative to the certainty case
since mitigation reduces damages regardless of where they occur, its marginal benefits are not affected by uncertainty over the distribution of impacts. (they are of course affected by the uncertainty over the magnitude of impacts.) and since less proactive adaptation is undertaken in each region than would be in the certainty case, more mitigation may be necessary to meet condition (19) when mitigation and proactive adaptation are substitutes (cf. section 3.3). the optimal level of reactive adaptation in the region that is effectively hit by the extreme weather event is also likely to vary relative to the certainty case. following the discussion of section 3.4, however, the variation may go in either direction. if proactive adaptation and reactive adaptation are
What is the most effective way to teach modern synthesis to high school and university students who "don't believe" in evolution?
is to focus on exactly the same thing one should focus on to teach evolutionary science to those who say they do "believe" but very likely don't understand it: the correction of various naive misconceptions that concern the tendency of people to attribute evolution not to supernatural forces but to functionalist mechanisms and to the hereditability of acquired traits
what is the suggestion proposed in the text to deal with extremely religious students with regard to changing their opinion regarding the theory of evolution?
our suggestion is that it is best not to try to [change students' beliefs], not directly at least. rather, our experience and results suggest to us that a more prudent plan would be to utilize instruction time, much as we did, to explore the alternatives, their predicted consequences, and the evidence in a hypothetico-deductive way in an effort to provoke argumentation and the use of reflective thought
what is the opinion of Lawson Worsnop regarding the teaching of modern synthesis?
yet even among these students, learning the modern synthesis does not make a student who started out professing "not to believe in" evolution any more likely to say she now does "believe in" it
osi for both groups--supports the inference that answering this variant of evolution correctly occupies the same relation to a test taker's osi aptitude as does answering the other osi items correctly. however, this particular member of the scale turns out to be even easier--even less diagnostic of anything other than a dismally low comprehension level in those who get it wrong--than the simple nsf indicator electron item. as i mentioned, there is no correlation between saying one "believes" in evolution (that is, selecting "true" in response to the nsf indicator item) and meaningful comprehension of natural selection and the other elements of the modern synthesis. sadly, the proportion of individuals who can give a cogent and accurate account of these mechanisms is low among both "believers" and "nonbelievers," even in highly educated samples, including college biology students (bishop anderson, 1990). increasing the share of the population that comprehends these important--indeed, astonishing and awe-inspiring--scientific insights is very much a proper goal for those who want to improve the science education that americans receive. the incidence of "disbelief" in evolution in the u.s. population, moreover, poses no barrier to attaining it. this conclusion, too, has been demonstrated by outstanding empirical research in the field of education science (lawson worsnop, 2006). the most effective way to teach the modern synthesis to high school and college students who "do not believe" in evolution, this research suggests, is to focus on exactly the same thing one should focus on to teach evolutionary science to those who say they do "believe" but very likely don't understand it: the correction of various naive misconceptions that concern the tendency of people to attribute evolution not to supernatural forces but to functionalist mechanisms and to the hereditability of acquired traits (bishop anderson, 1990; demastes et al., 1995). not surprisingly, the students most able to master the basic elements of evolutionary science are those who demonstrate the highest proficiency in the sort of critical reasoning dispositions on which science comprehension depends. yet even among these students, learning the modern synthesis does not make a student who started out professing "not to believe in" evolution any more likely to say she now does "believe in" it (lawson worsnop, 2006). indeed, treating profession of "belief" as one of the objectives of instruction is thought to make it less likely that students will learn the modern synthesis. "[e]very teacher who has addressed the issue of special creation and evolution in the classroom," the authors of one study conclude, already knows that highly religious students are not likely to change their belief in special creation as a consequence of relative brief lessons on evolution. our suggestion is that it is best not to try to [change students' beliefs], not directly at least. rather, our experience and results suggest to us that a more prudent plan would be to utilize instruction time, much as we did, to explore the alternatives, their predicted consequences, and the evidence in a hypothetico-deductive way in an effort to provoke argumentation and the use of reflective thought. thus, the primary aims of the lesson should not be to convince students of one belief or another, but, instead, to help students (a) gain a better understanding of how scientists compare alternative hypotheses, their predicated consequences, and the evidence to arrive at belief and (b) acquire skill in the use of this important reasoning pattern--a pattern that appears to be necessary for independent learning and critical thought (lawson worsnop, 2006, p. 165) this research is to the measurement problem of the science of science communication what the double-slit experiment is to that of quantum mechanics. all students, including the ones most readily disposed to learn science, can be expected to protect their cultural identities from the threat that antagonistic cultural meanings pose. but all such students-- all of them--can also be expected to use their reasoning aptitudes to acquire understanding of what is known to science. they can and will do
analytical framework of the discounted utility
a final issue involves the analytical framework of the discounted utility a final issue involves the analytical framework of the discounted utility model in growth theory
How is the social treatment?
it seems a natural starting point to assume that people with equivalent consumption bundles should be treated as having the same level of economic welfare. moreover, this assumption seems reasonable where it involves the same person at points of time that are not very far apart
a final issue involves the analytical framework of the discounted utility a final issue involves the analytical framework of the discounted utility model in growth theory. while most of the debate involves discounting, another set of issues involves the foundations of the utility function. these issues have been reviewed extensively in this journal and will not be discussed at length here.21 i will add one further note concerning the interpretation of utility at distant horizons. it seems a natural starting point to assume that people with equivalent consumption bundles should be treated as having the same level of economic welfare. moreover, this assumption seems reasonable where it involves the same person at points of time that are not very far apart.
Which is good job in comparison with the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis and the CMAP rainfall.
cam3 does a reasonably good job in comparison with the ncep-ncar reanalysis and the cmap rainfall
What happen in summer ?
 in the summer, the north atlantic and pacific subtropical highs reside in the eastern subtropical oceans where the ocean temperature is relatively cool (fig. 2a
Where the Heavy rainfall is located?
heavy rainfall is located in the regions of the eastern pacific and atlantic intertropical convergence zones (itczs) where the air is ascended and temperature is high (fig. 2b). other summertime rainy features are over northern south america, central america, the awp region, the united states east of the rocky mountains, the u.s. gulf coast, and the u.s. southeastern seaboard. the western region of the united states, the pacific seaboard, and the subtropical high regions see less rainfall during the summer
the distributions of the simulated slp and precipitation from the ctrl run during the summer (jja) are shown in figs. 2a,b. as stated in wang et al. (2007), cam3 does a reasonably good job in comparison with the ncep-ncar reanalysis and the cmap rainfall. in the summer, the north atlantic and pacific subtropical highs reside in the eastern subtropical oceans where the ocean temperature is relatively cool (fig. 2a). sandwiched between two subtropical highs is the continental low over north america, owing to the summertime continental heating. heavy rainfall is located in the regions of the eastern pacific and atlantic intertropical convergence zones (itczs) where the air is ascended and temperature is high (fig. 2b). other summertime rainy features are over northern south america, central america, the awp region, the united states east of the rocky mountains, the u.s. gulf coast, and the u.s. southeastern seaboard. the western region of the united states, the pacific seaboard, and the subtropical high regions see less rainfall during the summer.
Whose theory was used?
we used kendall's t as a non-parametric measure of association
What actually is discussed?
specifically, t pc- pd, where pc is the probability of concordant pairs and pd is the probability of discordant
Is there another advantage?
kendall's t also has the advantage that it can be generalised to a partial correlation coe ffi cient (legen5
finally as some plot e ff ect versus environmental predictor relationships did not show a simple linear trend and/or normally distributed homoscedatic errors, we used kendall's t as a non-parametric measure of association. though less common than spearman's r kendall's t has slightly better distributional properties and also has the 3719 advantage that it can be interpreted in term of probabilities of observing concordant and discordant pairs (conover, 1980). specifically, t pc- pd, where pc is the probability of concordant pairs and pd is the probability of discordant. for example, if t 0.5, then 0.75 of the ranked pairs are concordant and 0.25 are discordant. kendall's t also has the advantage that it can be generalised to a partial correlation coe ffi cient (legen5
What does the rapid shift in environmental stability on Earth challenge, according to the paragraph?
the earth is experiencing a rapid shift in environmental stability (walsh 2008), which challenges the adaptive capacity of arctic marine mammals
Which species have the capability to extend their geographic range into Arctic marine habitats?
temperate or seasonally migrant species have the capability to extend their geographic range into arctic marine habitats
What did Darwin describe?
darwin (1859:459) described the movements of animals that must have accompanied the advance and retreat of glaciers as follows: ''as the cold came on, and as each more southern zone became fitted for arctic beings and illfitted for their former more temperate inhabitants, the latter would be supplanted and arctic productions would take their place. as the warmth returned, the arctic forms would retreat northward, closely followed up in their retreat by the productions of the more temperate regions
the earth is experiencing a rapid shift in environmental stability (walsh 2008), which challenges the adaptive capacity of arctic marine mammals. the polar bear ursus maritimus ), walrus odobenus rosmarus ), bearded seal erignathus barbatus ), and ringed seal phoca hispida may be especially vulnerable due to life histories reliant on sea ice, while the case for the narwhal monodon monoceros ), beluga delphinapterus leucas ), and bowhead whale balaena mysticetus is less certain (moore and laidre 2006, laidre et al. 2008). temperate or seasonally migrant species have the capability to extend their geographic range into arctic marine habitats. since the mid-1990s, grizzly bears ursus arctos have been reported in the canadian high arctic (taylor 1995), and the calls of gray whales were recorded throughout the winter of 2003-2004 in the western beaufort sea (stafford et al. 2007). these species and others (e.g., fin, humpback, and minke whales and harp, hooded, ribbon, and spotted seals) are poised to disperse and become established further northward if the current overall trend toward a warmer arctic climate continues. recognition that the biogeography of life on earth can change with climate is not new. darwin (1859:459) described the movements of animals that must have accompanied the advance and retreat of glaciers as follows: ''as the cold came on, and as each more southern zone became fitted for arctic beings and illfitted for their former more temperate inhabitants, the latter would be supplanted and arctic productions would take their place. as the warmth returned, the arctic forms would retreat northward, closely followed up in their retreat by the productions of the more temperate regions.'' further, extant arctic species have evolved
What is the most efficient treatment for the removal of BOD in sewage?
on the other hand, the reduction in the availability of food and its practically complete assimilation by the biomass makes extended aeration one of the most efficient sewage treatment processes in terms of bod removal
What is the process of activated sludge with intermittent operation?
the principle of the activated sludge process with intermittent operation consists in the incorporation of all the units, processes and operations normally 208 to wastewater characteristics, treatment and disposal associated to the conventional activated sludge (primary sedimentation, biological oxidation, secondary sedimentation, sludge pumping) within a single tank. using only a single tank, these processes and operations become sequences in time and not separated units, such as in conventional processes with continuous flow. the process of activated sludge with intermittent flow can be used in the conventional or in the extended aeration sludge ages, although the latter is more common, due to its greater operational simplicity
Why does the retention of biomass occur?
the retention of biomass occurs because it is not withdrawn with the supernatant (final effluent) after the sedimentation stage, remaining in the tank. the normal treatment cycle is composed of the following stages
the consequence of this simplification in the system is the energy expenditure for aeration, which is due, not only to the removal of the incoming bod, but also for the aerobic digestion of the sludge in the reactor. on the other hand, the reduction in the availability of food and its practically complete assimilation by the biomass makes extended aeration one of the most efficient sewage treatment processes in terms of bod removal. c) intermittent operation (sequencing batch reactors) the activated sludge systems described above are of continuous flow with relation to the sewage, that is, the sewage is always entering and leaving the reactor. however, there is a variant of the system which has intermittent flow and operation, also called a sequencing batch reactor (sbr). the principle of the activated sludge process with intermittent operation consists in the incorporation of all the units, processes and operations normally 208 to wastewater characteristics, treatment and disposal associated to the conventional activated sludge (primary sedimentation, biological oxidation, secondary sedimentation, sludge pumping) within a single tank. using only a single tank, these processes and operations become sequences in time and not separated units, such as in conventional processes with continuous flow. the process of activated sludge with intermittent flow can be used in the conventional or in the extended aeration sludge ages, although the latter is more common, due to its greater operational simplicity. in the extended aeration mode, the tank also incorporates the role of the sludge digestion (aerobic) unit. the process consists of a complete-mix reactor where all the treatment stages occur. this is accomplished by the establishment of operating cycles with defined duration. the biological mass stays in the reactor, eliminating the need for separate sedimentation and sludge pumping. the retention of biomass occurs because it is not withdrawn with the supernatant (final effluent) after the sedimentation stage, remaining in the tank. the normal treatment cycle is composed of the following stages:
What directly affects environmental risk?
given that the personal values that individuals hold are central determinants of environmental risk perceptions
What is the vision of the research?
we limit our review in the following section to studies that examine the link between values and intentional public engagement with climate change rather than environmental attitudes or behaviors in general (i.e. proenvironmental behavior regardless of the motivation
What types of research are compared?
in fact, it is difficult to draw a precise distinction between research that examines the link between values and general proenvironmental engagement (e.g. energy-saving regardless of motivation, involvement in an antilittering initiative, or taking part in a campaign to protect forest land) and research linking values and engagement with climate change specifically (although see ref 49 for a useful delineation of different forms of environmental engagement and proenvironmental behavior
given that the personal values that individuals hold are central determinants of environmental risk perceptions, and that climate change is in many ways simply a specific instantiation of the category 'environmental risk,'39it is perhaps unsurprising that values should also play a central role in determining public engagement with climate change. in fact, it is difficult to draw a precise distinction between research that examines the link between values and general proenvironmental engagement (e.g. energy-saving regardless of motivation, involvement in an antilittering initiative, or taking part in a campaign to protect forest land) and research linking values and engagement with climate change specifically (although see ref 49 for a useful delineation of different forms of environmental engagement and proenvironmental behavior). however, following lorenzoni et al.2(as well as most other literature in this area), we limit our review in the following section to studies that examine the link between values and intentional public engagement with climate change rather than environmental attitudes or behaviors in general (i.e. proenvironmental behavior regardless of the motivation).
What are the conditions required for increase insect disturbance?
there is strong evidence that insect disturbances will increase under warmer and drier conditions
What is the role of pathogens on insect disturbances?
changes in pathogens and disturbance from snow ice also had an influence on insect disturbances, yet their signs of influence were mixed
What is expected to ampliy insect activity?
wind disturbance is generally expected to further amplify insect activity
the response was less distinct for snow ice disturbance under warmer and wetter climate, where amplifying and dampening effects could balance each other out. there is strong evidence that insect disturbances will increase under warmer and drier conditions. both direct and indirect effects are strongly amplifying disturbance activity, and interactions from fire and drought are likely to further influence insect disturbances positively (figure s8). changes in pathogens and disturbance from snow ice also had an influence on insect disturbances, yet their signs of influence were mixed. wind disturbance is generally expected to further amplify insect activity (table s2). however, changes in wind disturbances could not be substantiated for warmer and drier future conditions (figure s7). if future conditions are characterized by increasing water availability in addition to rising temperatures, however, wind is likely to exert a positive effect on insect disturbances. and while dampening direct and indirect effects from increasing water availability are more likely than not, the overall response of insect disturbances to a warmer and wetter world is still dominated by positive, amplifying effects. also pathogens are likely to respond positively to future climate change, regardless of whether water availability increases or decreases. dampening influences were reported mainly via indirect effects, but overall strong positive direct and interaction effects are likely to dominate the response of pathogen disturbances to climate change.
How many years worth of data do most calibration stations have?
most stations have 15-20 years of data; a few have 100 years or more
How are the parameters of the MarkSim model calculated?
the 117 parameters of the marksim model are calculated by regression from the cluster most representative of the climate point to be simulated
How many calibration stations are located worldwide?
over 10,000 stations worldwide
marksim therefore works from a large set of parameters; including those for rainstorm size, this totals 117. to make a globally valid model that does not need recalibration every time that it is used, we have constructed a calibration set of over 10,000 stations worldwide. these were clustered into 702 climate clusters using the 36 values of monthly precipitation and monthly maximum and minimum temperatures. almost all except a small number of the calibration stations have more than 10 years of (almost) continuous data. most stations have 15-20 years of data; a few have 100 years or more. the 117 parameters of the marksim model are calculated by regression from the cluster most representative of the climate point to be simulated.
What is notable about the CIMA report?
cima's report is notable in acknowledging the 'new language' of climate change that has emerged in the accountancy profession
What does the quotation hint at?
the quotation above hints too at the objective of cima to stake a claim to the professional knowledge and expertise that accountants can 27 27 bring to climate change, but also suggests a sense of professional unease: that management accountants are not up to speed on the issue of climate change
What fast pace change has there been?
there has been a fast pace of change in recognition of the problem of climate change and its implications, and an evident desire on the part of the accountancy profession to 'catch up
cima's report is notable in acknowledging the 'new language' of climate change that has emerged in the accountancy profession. the quotation above hints too at the objective of cima to stake a claim to the professional knowledge and expertise that accountants can 27 27 bring to climate change, but also suggests a sense of professional unease: that management accountants are not up to speed on the issue of climate change. further, in noting the importance of working 'alongside technical experts' the powerful position of financial accountants, with their skills and expertise to develop technical practices to respond to climate change, is emphasised. there has been a fast pace of change in recognition of the problem of climate change and its implications, and an evident desire on the part of the accountancy profession to 'catch up'. a number of accountancy professional bodies see an opportunity for accountants to take the lead in climate change, as demonstrated by these reports and via interviews. for instance, as the secretariat to an international network of accounting organisations working on climate change explained:
How many ways cna blooms threaten shellfish populations?
both lethal effects and chronic impacts
What is one effect that exposure to toxins may have?
affect fish habitat, behaviour, susceptibility to disease, feeding ability and reproduction
Does climate change affect altantic salmon the same as pacific salmon?
the impacts of climate change on atlantic salmon are similar to those described for pacific salmon
researchers believe that climate warming may stimulate the growth and extend the range of the organisms responsible for toxic algal blooms, such as red tides see box 2). these blooms threaten shellfish populations through both lethal effects and chronic impacts. aquaculture operations are particularly sensitive to toxic algal blooms because they operate in a fixed location. clams are generally more affected than other shellfish, such as lobster, shrimp and scallops. exposure to the toxins may negatively affect fish habitat, behaviour, susceptibility to disease, feeding ability and reproduction.(44)infected shellfish are also a danger to human health, potentially resulting in paralytic shellfish poisoning. the impacts of climate change on atlantic salmon are similar to those described for pacific salmon. during their time in freshwater, atlantic salmon are sensitive to changes in both river water temperatures and flow regimes see box 3). changes in temperature have been shown to significantly affect sustainable harvests and fishing practices. for example, researchers studying the influence of water temperatures on recreational salmon fisheries in newfoundland's rivers found that, between 1975 and 1999, about 28% of rivers were temporarily closed each year due to warm water temperatures
how Climate change networks operate?
climate change networks operate as central vehicles for policy diffusion and learning as a third pathway of influence
What is Social learning?
social learning describes processes by which clusters of actors/ stakeholders who work together in an issue-area jointly recognise the relevance and validity of new information leading to a new set of shared understandings
what is policy-relevant learning ?
large and complex social science literatures address issues related to policy-relevant learning (viewed as cognitive change driven by experience and information) and the diffusion (or spread) of policies and the information and ideas related to them within political systems
climate change networks operate as central vehicles for policy diffusion and learning as a third pathway of influence. large and complex social science literatures address issues related to policy-relevant learning (viewed as cognitive change driven by experience and information) and the diffusion (or spread) of policies and the information and ideas related to them within political systems (social learning group, 2001; lopes durfee, 1999; haas, 2004; knill, 2005). social learning provides one pathway through which policy ideas and knowledge are diffused. social learning describes processes by which clusters of actors/ stakeholders who work together in an issue-area jointly recognise the relevance and validity of new information leading to a new set of shared understandings. then, the underlying change mechanism is learning through and during interaction and communication (wendt, 1999; knill, 2005). that is, actors' specific interests in climate change related issues emerge in relation to, and in interaction with stakeholders. integral to this mutual construction of interests, actors develop and internalize norms on climate change abatement and draw important policy lessons. in this respect, climate change networks function as central vehicles for facilitating policy diffusion and learning. studies demonstrate that environmental policies among leading u.s. states, municipalities and/or firms frequently serve as models (explicitly and implicitly) for subsequent initiatives by other such actors and federal policy makers (rothenberg, 2002; rabe, 2003). in such cases, policy ideas and information are diffused as actors learn from others' experiences. for example, u.s. federal environmental policies on toxics and air and water pollution have been modeled after programs in environmental leader states. in these and other cases, sub-national policy experiences served as laboratories for policy innovation within u.s. environmental federalism. similarly on climate change, a growing body of evidence suggests that policy lessons from one jurisdiction or organization often are emulated as others seek to develop policies on, for example, energy and electricity generation, emissions reduction, transportation, and land use (rabe, 2004). many networks and organizations are explicitly designed to facilitate policy diffusion and learning on climate change, including iclei's ccp program, the
How can policies for farm-level adaptation strategies be obtained?
by identifying the important determinants of adoption of the various adaptation measures
What are the adaptation options related to?
socioeconomic factors, and farmer perceptions about changes in climatic variables
better understanding of the demand for adaptation measures requires farm household characteristics to be matched with use of adaptation measures. by identifying the important determinants of adoption of the various adaptation measures important policy information on supporting policies for farm-level adaptation strategies can be obtained. the study identified seven common adaptation measures: using different varieties, planting different crops, crop diversification, different planting dates (given the high number of statements that the timing of rains is changing), diversifying from farm to non-farm activities, increased use of irrigation, and increased use of water and soil conservation techniques. the statistical model for assessing determinants of adaptation options assumes that use of each adaptation option is related to a number of socioeconomic factors, and farmer perceptions about changes in climatic variables.
Where is the Cariaco Basin?
in the cariaco basin, just north of venezuela
Aside from the Cariaco Basin, where have sediments revealed an abrupt transition into and out of the Younger Dryas?
sediments reveal a transition into and out of the younger dryas as abrupt as that observed in greenland
What do the abrupt changes in sediment composition suggest?
record changes in the rate of riverine influx from south america north of the amazon basin, i.e. the balance of precipitation and evaporation in that region, suggesting that during greenland cold stadials northern regions of south america received less rain than now
further south than the sachs and lehman record (1999), hughen et al. (1996, 1998) showed that abrupt climate change also affected the tropical atlantic. in the cariaco basin, just north of venezuela, sediments reveal a transition into and out of the younger dryas as abrupt as that observed in greenland. these were interpreted as abrupt changes in trade wind strength. peterson et al. (2000) show that almost all of the abrupt jumps seen in greenland between 60 kyr bp and 25 kyr bp (and numbered in figure 1) are also seen in the cariaco record as shifts in sediment reflectance and major element chemistry. these sediment characteristics record changes in the rate of riverine influx from south america north of the amazon basin, i.e. the balance of precipitation and evaporation in that region, suggesting that during greenland cold stadials northern regions of south america received less rain than now. the most obvious way in which this could happen is through a southward shift of the intertropical climate zone (itcz). recent results from speleotherms have indeed indicated that, at times when northern south america was drier, northeast brazil was wetter (wang et al. 2004)1.
What do higher internal R&D spillovers lead to?
also note that, at least in the short run (table 9), higher internal r&d spillovers lead to higher overall emissions and higher emissions per unit of output
What seems to provide the best equilibrium outcome?
therefore, a mix of climate and technological cooperation seems to provide the best equilibrium outcome
What do their optimisation experiments suggest within the limits of ETC-RICE?
within the limits of the etc-rice, our optimisation experiments suggest that technological cooperation increases r&d, growth and welfare, but also emissions. as a consequence, some environmental policy measures, to be coupled with technological cooperation, may be necessary. these measures could also provide additional incentives to invest in climate friendly technological change
also note that, at least in the short run (table 9), higher internal r&d spillovers lead to higher overall emissions and higher emissions per unit of output. again, the reason is that an enhanced technological cooperation pushes economic growth and increases welfare, but also increases emissions. this latter increase is only partly mitigated by the participation of chn and row, where the emission-output ratio improves, thus lowering the global increase of emissions (table 10). even though the rate of growth of emissions per unit of output becomes smaller as a consequence of increased r&d efforts which demonstrates that technological cooperation induces a relative environmental improvement of production technologies our analysis does not seem to support the idea that 27 a coalition devoted only to technological cooperation can also have a positive impact on climate change control. therefore, the tentative conclusion is that technological cooperation cannot replace environmental cooperation. within the limits of the etc-rice, our optimisation experiments suggest that technological cooperation increases r&d, growth and welfare, but also emissions. as a consequence, some environmental policy measures, to be coupled with technological cooperation, may be necessary. these measures could also provide additional incentives to invest in climate friendly technological change. some results, already discussed in section 4, provide support to this last statement. indeed, total emissions when all or part of the annex b countries adopt technological cooperation and environmental policy measures to achieve the kyoto targets, are smaller than total emissions when international cooperation concerns only technological innovation and diffusion. moreover, with both technological and climate cooperation, global emissions are smaller than the global kyoto target itself. therefore, a mix of climate and technological cooperation seems to provide the best equilibrium outcome. however, this policy mix can hardly be achieved on a voluntary basis, unless the us climate policy strategy recognises the benefits arising from combining technological and climate cooperation.
How is the Year effects were estimated
year effects were estimated using a generalized additive model also accounting for effects of ssb and the north atlantic oscillation (nao
Why is the Predictions for mean SSB in each stock and NAO 0 are shown.
predictions for mean ssb in each stock and nao 0 are shown. because of trends in ssb, the effects of year and ssb are partly confounded
fig. 3. trends in recruitment of cod stocks in the north atlantic. r is annual number of recruits and ssb is spawning stock biomass. points: observed loge(r/ssb). lines: smooth effects of year with 95% bootstrap confidence limits. year effects were estimated using a generalized additive model also accounting for effects of ssb and the north atlantic oscillation (nao) (eq. 2). predictions for mean ssb in each stock and nao 0 are shown. because of trends in ssb, the effects of year and ssb are partly confounded. figs. a4 a5 in the electronic appendix show the combined effects of ssb and year mar ecol prog ser 325: 227-241, 2006
Who did support the Dessai?
dessai was supported by funding from the tyndall centre core contract with the nerc, epsrc and esrc
Who helped to brought the paper to birth?
the authors thank jeroen van der sluijs and roger pielke jr. for discussions which helped bring this paper to birth and the watson institute at brown university for a chance to present a version of this paper at their scenarios workshop in march 2007
Which is the institute who did present the version of the paper at their scenarios workshop in March 2007?
the authors thank jeroen van der sluijs and roger pielke jr. for discussions which helped bring this paper to birth and the watson institute at brown university for a chance to present a version of this paper at their scenarios workshop in march 2007
dessai was supported by funding from the tyndall centre core contract with the nerc, epsrc and esrc. parts of the assessment were drawn from his phd thesis funded by fundac , a~o para a cie^ncia e a tecnologia, in portugal under grant sfrh/bd/4901/2001. the views expressed in this article are those of the authors alone and not necessarily those of any of the organisations mentioned in the paper. the authors thank jeroen van der sluijs and roger pielke jr. for discussions which helped bring this paper to birth and the watson institute at brown university for a chance to present a version of this paper at their scenarios workshop in march 2007. two anonymous reviews are also thanked for their critical remarks.
Which coastal sites experienced more sea flood?
lowlying coastal sites
rising sea level is likely to lead to an increase in flood events experienced by coastal populations (kabat and van schaik, 2003). this is especially likely to be the case in lowlying coastal sites, as a prelude to their eventual permanent inundation and abandonment (nicholls, 2002). but it is not only rise in mean sea level that may heighten the risk of sea floods: the more complex effects of climate change may also bring changes in storm conditions (increasing storm surges), tide patterns and wave heights (woodworth et al. in press) moreover, sea level rise may not only exacerbate the effect
what methd CMIP3 modles for A1B scenario uses ?
cmip3 models for the a1b scenario using the corresponding method (forster and taylor, 2006
WHat is the consistent diffrences in CMIP3 amd CMIP5
as for cmip3 models, part of the forcing spread in cmip5 models (forster et al., 2013) is consistent with differences in ghg forcings arising from the radiative transfer codes (collins et al., 2006b
what factor contributes to the overall model spread ?
leading to a spread in aerosol concentrations and forcings which contributes to the overall model spread
cmip3 models for the a1b scenario using the corresponding method (forster and taylor, 2006). as for cmip3 models, part of the forcing spread in cmip5 models (forster et al., 2013) is consistent with differences in ghg forcings arising from the radiative transfer codes (collins et al., 2006b). aerosol forcing implementations in cmip5 models also vary considerably, however (section 12.3.2), leading to a spread in aerosol concentrations and forcings which contributes to the overall model spread. a further small source of spread in cmip5 results possibly arises from an underlying ambiguity in the cmip5 experimental design regarding the volcanic forcing offset between the historical experiment versus the pre-industrial control experiment. most models implement zero volcanic forcing in the control experiment but some use constant negative forcing equal to the time-mean of historical volcanic forcing (see table 12.1 and section 12.3.2). the effect of this volcanic forcing offset persists into the future projections.
What does the paper talked about in this paragraph presents to us?
this paper presents a novel integrated assessment modeling approach based on a detailed account of economic relations
What is the intertemporal general equilibrium model, WIAGEM, comprised of?
wiagem comprises a model of 25 world regions aggregated into 11 trading regions, each with 14 sectors
Why was this economic general equilibrium approach chosen?
we have chosen this economic general equilibrium approach because we would like to focus on international trade options and assess regional and sectoral effects of different emissions reduction policies
this paper presents a novel integrated assessment modeling approach based on a detailed account of economic relations. its core is an intertemporal general equilibrium model wiagem which includes all world regions and main economic sectors. the general equilibrium model also includes a representation of the international energy markets for oil, coal and gas. the economic model is paired with a model of the ocean carbon cycle and climate. wiagem comprises a model of 25 world regions aggregated into 11 trading regions, each with 14 sectors. the model incorporates the greenhouse gases (ghg) co2, ch4 and n2o, affecting global temperature and sea level; both determine the impacts of climate change. market and non-market impacts are evaluated according to the damage cost approaches of additionally, this model includes net changes in ghg emissions from sources and removals by sinks resulting from land use change and de-forestation activities. the first part of this paper gives a brief overview of existing economic, climate and ecosystem models and integrated assessment approaches. the main focus of this paper is describing the integrated assessment model wiagem. the model's economic, energy and climate modules are thoroughly explained. the paper concludes with a short illustration of selected key model results. 2. integrated assessment models 2.1. basic remarks economic assessment of climate change is based either on pure economic models focusing on economic relations and interlinkages, economic models enlarged by stylized climatic interrelations, or submodels, usually known as integrated assessment (iam) models. ecological effects such as the impact of climate change on biodiversity are mainly modeled by ecosystem models concentrating on ecological interrelations (see [4-10]). climatic impacts can be assessed chiefly by sophisticated climate models [11-18]. pure economic models based primarily on an intertemporal optimization approach covering aggregated world regions do not normally incorporate a sectoral disaggregation. in order to assess the impact of climate and ecosystem changes, an integrated assessment model must cover both climatic and ecosystem as well as economic interrelations. economic models including sectoral disaggregation of world regions by a general equilibrium model mainly do not embrace ecological or climatic interrelations. in economic modeling approaches, there is a trade off between either a representation and replication of a long term, dynamic but highly aggregated economic system, or a detailed reproduction of regional economic systems comprising regional world trade effects. economic modeling approaches covering detailed regional and sectoral trade options are based primarily on a general equilibrium approach. economic modeling approaches covering long-term dynamic effects with an intertemporal optimization framework neglect these interregional and intersectoral trade options. we have chosen this economic general equilibrium approach because we would like to focus on international trade options and assess regional and sectoral effects of different emissions reduction policies. this is due to the fact that most cost benefit climate change analyses are based on a highly aggregated economic approach that does not cover sectoral and trade effects.1
Whai is the first step that governments can do to including ILPAs in their REDD strategies?
is to identify where establishing or strengthening ilpas would most effectively reduce emissions (figure 1). the studies discussed here show that spatial data and techniques exist to estimate effectiveness rigorously
Whai is the third step that governments can do to including ILPAs in their REDD strategies?
a third step is to establish insurance mechanisms, pooling the risk that illegal logging or fires reverse gains in individual ilpas
so what can national governments do to include ilpas effectively in their redd strategies? one obvious step is to identify where establishing or strengthening ilpas would most effectively reduce emissions (figure 1). the studies discussed here show that spatial data and techniques exist to estimate effectiveness rigorously [15,16,18,25,26]. a second and urgent step is to establish national monitoring schemes to measure deforestation rates and quantify carbon emissions reductions. brazil's system of remotely sensed monitoring and noel kempff's network of onthe-ground monitoring plots are good models [25,35]. a third step is to establish insurance mechanisms, pooling the risk that illegal logging or fires reverse gains in individual ilpas. finally, governments must provide indigenous groups and local communities the information and capacities they need to participate, and payments must be distributed transparently to reward those responsible for reducing emissions. in brazil, indigenous lands currently contribute far more to redd than parks or nature reserves because they cover three times the area and are often in the immediate path of the expanding agricultural frontier the science community can support nations in all of these efforts by illuminating several simple questions with nuanced answers (see box 1). ilpas are only one part of national redd programs, and redd is only one of many mechanisms to reduce land-based emissions. nevertheless, redd is likely to be the first such mechanism to take international effect, and ilpas clearly can
which 2 two matrilineal exogamous moieties do the tribles claim membership of?
raven and eagle on the coast, and crow and wolf in the interior
What do clans regulate the access of?
clans regulated access to resources as well as transmission of property, which included narratives of clan history and associated rights to tell them
How are the clans histories told?
oral traditions from this region consistently demonstrate the social nature of all relations between humans and nonhumans, that is, animals and landscape features, including glaciers (kan, 1999:14). oral narratives have histories that capture
the significance of clans is crucial to the narratives discussed here. the tlingit and their neighbors all claim membership in one of two matrilineal exogamous moieties (raven and eagle on the coast, and crow and wolf in the interior), with marriages between opposite-moiety clans regulating social behavior. on the coast, primary units of national history and property ownership were clans whose migration narratives were deeply embedded in kinship. clans regulated access to resources as well as transmission of property, which included narratives of clan history and associated rights to tell them. oral traditions from this region consistently demonstrate the social nature of all relations between humans and nonhumans, that is, animals and landscape features, including glaciers (kan, 1999:14). oral narratives have histories that capture some of the accumulating, vanishing, changing meanings associated with glaciers from the distant time of ice ages to the present era of parks, meanings that continue to be enmeshed in social worlds.
How engagement can be defined?
n this article, we defined engagement as a state of personal connection that encompasses cognitive, affective and/or behavioral dimensions
What will negative and positive emotions likely result in?
negative emotions such as fear--unmitigated by communication on how to translate worry and concern into effective remedial action--are more likely to disengage individuals, while positive emotions help inspire and motivate people
in this article, we defined engagement as a state of personal connection that encompasses cognitive, affective and/or behavioral dimensions. the studies reviewed here suggest that denial as well as distancing and an active disconnect between recognizing causes and assigning responsibility for action play important roles in mitigating the cognitive dissonance climate change causes in individuals. there is evidence for an asymmetry of intentions and actions in part due to insufficient practical knowledge about how to reduce emissions effectively. incorrect mental models (such as global warming being the result of the ozone hole) or the cross-culturally common 'god frame' can effectively hinder or, as seen in evidence from us progressive christian beliefs, promote individual engagement; this has significant implications for mitigation and adaptation. on the other hand, there is no direct or uncontested linkage between a correct understanding of climate change and active engagement either, and a wide variety of framings can motivate action without deep, scientifically correct understanding. even where individuals perceive a sense of personal responsibility and show a willingness to act, many experience a sense of futility in light of the barriers they face, the lack of government leadership and facilitative policies, and the immensity of this 'global' problem versus individual actions. affective engagement with climate change requires further research; clear is, however, that negative emotions such as fear--unmitigated by communication on how to translate worry and concern into effective remedial action--are more likely to disengage individuals, while positive emotions help inspire and motivate people. limited evidence suggests that ecologically minded individuals feel and are more actively engaged--pointing to the importance of identity in pro-environmental behavior--but still struggle to make changes in their lives that would reduce their emissions effectively.
Is there reasonable amount of knowledge about how current levels of climate variability have considerable impacts on biological systems and health?
but on the other hand, we already know a reasonable amount about how current levels of climate variability have considerable impacts on biological systems and health
Is there certainty or uncertainty in expected changes in rainfall and temperature?
regarding expected changes in rainfall and temperature variability in the future, there is high uncertainty
What does most of the climate change impacts work carried out to date either ignore or downplay?
most of the climate change impacts work carried out to date either ignores or downplays variability
most of the climate change impacts work carried out to date either ignores or downplays variability. on the one hand, this is somewhat understandable. regarding expected changes in rainfall and temperature variability in the future, there is high uncertainty: ipcc (2012) provides no assessment of projected changes in extremes at spatial scales smaller than for large regions. indeed, the prognosis for robust quantification in the foreseeable future of changes in weather and climate variability over short temporal and high spatial scales is rather gloomy (ramirez et al., 2013). but on the other hand, we already know a reasonable amount about how current levels of climate variability have considerable impacts on biological systems and health. while we cannot let limited predictive capability constrain adaptive responses, it does suggest that we will need to become increasingly creative to arrive at actionable answers in response to questions from a wide range of decision makers concerning the appropriate adaptation of biological and food systems. one example of a suitable framework is the combination of impact and capacity approaches (broadly, top down and bottom up, respectively) to adaptation planning; there is considerable potential in this and other problem-orientated approaches for producing robust knowledge and actions in the face of uncertainty (vermeulen et al., 2013). this is not without its challenges, however: recent assessments indicate an increased probability of future tipping events, in part because of positive feedbacks in the climate system (e.g., cory et al., 2013), and the corresponding impacts are estimated to be large, making them significant risks (lenton, 2011). below, we briefly discuss five areas that warrant considerable attention if we are to address these challenges.
What climate forcings determine the climate changes of the past millennium?
climate forcings through solar activity, volcanic activity, co2 concentration increase and land cover changes largely determine the climate changes of the past millennium
What happens when deforestation data is included?
however, better agreement between simulated anomalies and reconstructed anomalies is obtained when the effect from deforestation is included
What changes are associated with land cover changes?
further studies on the regional and seasonal changes associated with land cover changes are needed
climate forcings through solar activity, volcanic activity, co2 concentration increase and land cover changes largely determine the climate changes of the past millennium. the preindustrial variations in the nh temperature on annual to multi-centennial scales are predominantly caused by solar and volcanic activity. the increasing greenhouse gases and the deforestation impose additional influences in the industrial period. the simulated temperature changes induced by solar and volcanic activity and by anthropogenic greenhouse gases agree remarkably well with earlier simulations by crowley [2000] for the entire millennium. however, better agreement between simulated anomalies and reconstructed anomalies is obtained when the effect from deforestation is included. although the regional changes in deforestation and their feedback effects are only roughly resolved, their climate impact is effective for explaining the low nh temperatures reconstructed for the second half of the 19th century. further studies on the regional and seasonal changes associated with land cover changes are needed. acknowledgments. the work was supported by research grant 01 lg 9906 of bundesministerium fu"r bildung und forschung (bmbf).
Name the effects present a notoriously formidable challenge to almost all climate simulation efforts?
cloud effects present a notoriously formidable challenge to almost all climate simulation efforts
Describe what would happen in hard snowball case?
in the hard snowball case, the cloud forcing is dominated by the cloud greenhouse effect, because of the high albedo of the underlying surface
Describe the convection in hard snowball climate?
in the hard snowball climate, convection is weak and injection of water aloft would be more sluggish than at present, so it would be expected that less of the available water (which is, in turn, much reduced in comparison to the modern climate) will be made into cloud water
cloud effects present a notoriously formidable challenge to almost all climate simulation efforts. the situation for the hard snowball climate is not quite as dire as it is for climates more like the present. much of the difficulty with getting cloud effects right for the present climate stems from the fact that the cloud albedo and cloud greenhouse effects nearly cancel, yielding a small result which is the sum of two large terms; a moderate error in either term can yield a large proportional error in the net cloud forcing. in the hard snowball case, the cloud forcing is dominated by the cloud greenhouse effect, because of the high albedo of the underlying surface. hence the net cloud forcing is no longer a small residual of two large terms. all other things being equal, this reduces the error in the net cloud forcing relative to the typical magnitude of the net. for example, in the modern climate, even the sign of cloud feedback is in doubt, whereas in the hard snowball case it is virtually certain that clouds warm the climate. one should not thereby conclude that it is unimportant to get the clouds right. the ccm3 cloud parameterization used in foam is highly empirical, and while it performs satisfactorily over the range of temperatures encountered in the modern climate, it is not based on fundamental microphysical considerations. thicker clouds cannot be ruled out solely on the basis of moisture availability. it takes very little moisture to make a optically thick cloud, and even in cold snowball conditions there is sufficient water vapor at low levels in the summer hemisphere to substantially increase the cloud longwave forcing, if only it could be transported to high levels and kept in suspension as condensed water. for example, in the .2 bar case, the subtropical precipitable water is on the order of 700 g/m2, whereas it takes only 20 g/m2to make a cloud with an infrared emissivity of 80% mahesh et al. 2001b]. in the hard snowball climate, convection is weak and injection of water aloft would be more sluggish than at present, so it would be expected that less of the available water (which is, in turn, much reduced in comparison to the modern climate) will be made into cloud water. however, the amount of cloud water that stays aloft depends ultimately on the rate of conversion to precipitation, and it is not completely out of the question that this factor could be lower in the snowball world. a better understanding of the behavior of the condensed water path in a hard snowball climate is clearly needed, and could perhaps be approached via detailed microphysical or cloud-resolving simulations of convection under cold conditions. a further discussion of the cloud parameterization, and some experiments exploring the sensitivity of the results to assumptions about cloud water content are presented in section 7.
The  seed sludge volume is relatively high (196 m3). What is it  equivalent to?
as the necessary seed sludge volume is relatively high (196 m3), equivalent to approximately 32 tank trucks
How can the possibility of not applying the total organic load be evaluated?
the possibility of not applying the total organic load can be evaluated, diverting (by-passing) part of the influent sewage to the overflow weir of the treatment plant during the first few days of the reactor start-up
What does the percentage of applied flow refer to?
 the percentage of applied flow refers to the average flow obtained in the characterisation campaign of the influent (e.g.: 50% refers to the application of an influent flowrate equal to 1,500 m3/d
as the necessary seed sludge volume is relatively high (196 m3), equivalent to approximately 32 tank trucks, the possibility of not applying the total organic load can be evaluated, diverting (by-passing) part of the influent sewage to the overflow weir of the treatment plant during the first few days of the reactor start-up. the following figure enables the visualisation of some alternatives for inoculation and start-up of the anaerobic reactor, taking into consideration the application of different influent flow percentages as a function of the volatile solids concentrations in the sludge. in the figure, the percentage of applied flow refers to the average flow obtained in the characterisation campaign of the influent (e.g.: 50% refers to the application of an influent flowrate equal to 1,500 m3/d). possible alternatives for inoculation of the reactor can be evaluated by means of graphical aid, as exemplified below:
What does Figure 4 show?
figure 4 shows one example of the regional temperature changes suggested by such experiments, expressed in terms of both magnitude and rate of change
What do magnitudes of temperature change fall within?
magnitudes of temperature change, on the other hand, fall within present and expected future ranges
Who mapped out the risk of space where the liklelihood of the callaps of the THC is estimated as a function of the global climate sensitivity?
thus, schneider thompson (2000) map out a risk space where the likelihood of the collapse of the thc is estimated as a function of the global climate sensitivity, the rate of greenhouse-gas forcing and of the initial strength of the oceanic circulation
other modelling work has explored thc behaviour using intermediate complexity models (ganopolski rahmstorf 2001) or simple models (schneider thompson 2000) and shown that the thc is indeed sensitive to both the rate and magnitudes of greenhouse-gas forcing. neither of these types of experiments really provide the detailed geographic climatic information that could be used to explore regional impacts and adaptation, although work is underway attempting to downscale these types of results from the climber model to explore their implications for regional climate and for primary sectors of northwest european economies: food, timber and fisheries (stefan rahmstorf 2003, personal communication). figure 4 shows one example of the regional temperature changes suggested by such experiments, expressed in terms of both magnitude and rate of change. this form of expression emphasizes the uniqueness of the thc-collapse scenario in terms of the decadal rate of cooling during the twenty-second century. magnitudes of temperature change, on the other hand, fall within present and expected future ranges. a different type of information again is that reported by hall stouffer (2001), where they showed the existence of abrupt climate change over southern greenland in an unforced coupled atmosphere-ocean gcm experiment, i.e. where abrupt climate change was triggered by random internal variability. + in this case, a prolonged cooling of ca 3*c over 30-40 years was induced over an area of several million square kilometres of the north atlantic before the system recovered to its previous equilibrium (see figure 5). in this context it is also worth mentioning some work, conducted or on-going, that seeks to estimate the probability of thc collapse given some prior set of assumptions about system behaviour and rate of forcing. thus, schneider thompson (2000) map out a risk space where the likelihood of the collapse of the thc is estimated as a function of the global climate sensitivity, the rate of greenhouse-gas forcing and of the initial strength of the oceanic circulation. along similar lines, work is proposed
Has the first decade of the new millennium seen unprecedented increases or decreases in emissions?
unprecedented increases
How many people live in the non-Annex 1 nations that are vulnerable to emissions?
five billion people
What three human services are causing high energy usage and leading to emissions?
heat, electricity and transport
the first decade of the new millennium has witnessed unprecedented increases in emissions reflecting ongoing high levels of energy usage for heat, electricity and transport within annex 1 nations coupled with the very rapid industrialization of many non-annex 1 nations, in particular china and india. total cumulative emissions produced by nations that underwent industrialization in the nineteenth century and first half of the twentieth century will be eclipsed if the five billion people currently resident in non-annex 1 nations remain or become locked into a fossil fuel economy. although included in non-mitigation energy scenarios (e.g. 4 5 ]), this dramatic potential for emissions growth within non-annex 1 nations is typically neglected in global and national mitigation scenarios. by considering global emission budgets alongside emission pathways for non-annex 1 nations, this paper illustrates the increasing relevance of the latter for the mitigation policies of annex 1 nations. recent years have seen the development of an increasing number of global emissions scenarios, each with a differing quantity of cumulative emission over the twenty-first century and hence with different temperature implications (e.g. 2 3 6 - 10 ]). alongside these global analyses a growing range of ever more detailed national-level energy and emission scenarios are being developed (e.g. 11 - 13 ]). clearly, integrating national and global analyses is a prerequisite of understanding the scale and rate of mitigation, impacts and adaptation associated with differing levels of climate change. however, as it stands, such integration is rare with
Via what mechanisms will Climate change have strong indirect effects on biodiversity in plantation forests?
climate change will have strong indirect effects on biodiversity in plantation forests via changes in forest management actions that have been proposed to mitigate the effects of climate change on the productive capacity of plantations
What causes the impacts on biodiversity in forests throughout the world?
these impacts occur as a result of changes in temperature, rainfall, storm frequency and magnitude, fire frequency, and the frequency and magnitude of pest and disease outbreaks
How do plantation forests provide direct and indirect benefits to biodiversity?
plantation forests provide direct and indirect benefits to biodiversity via the provision of forest habitat for a wide range of species, and by reducing negative impacts on natural forests by offsetting the need to extract resources
nearly 4 of the world's forests are plantations, established to provide a variety of ecosystem services, principally timber and other wood products. in addition to such services, plantation forests provide direct and indirect benefits to biodiversity via the provision of forest habitat for a wide range of species, and by reducing negative impacts on natural forests by offsetting the need to extract resources. there is compelling evidence that climate change is directly affecting biodiversity in forests throughout the world. these impacts occur as a result of changes in temperature, rainfall, storm frequency and magnitude, fire frequency, and the frequency and magnitude of pest and disease outbreaks. however, in plantation forests it is not only the direct effects of climate change that will impact on biodiversity. climate change will have strong indirect effects on biodiversity in plantation forests via changes in forest management actions that have been proposed to mitigate the effects of climate change on the productive capacity of plantations. these include changes in species selection (including use of species mixtures), rotation length, thinning, pruning, extraction of bioenergy feedstocks, and large scale climate change
What change indicators in the Arctic have occurred over the previous 25 years?
change in the arctic has continued over the previous 25 years in many indicators: warmer surface air temperatures, reduced sea-ice area, conversion of tundra to dense shrubs and wetland, and biological consequences
What time of year do Arctic changes often occur?
a further issue is that model projections of future arctic change show impacts from reduced sea ice primarily in winter arctic climate impact assessment acia ), 2004], while recent changes often occur in spring and summer
change in the arctic has continued over the previous 25 years in many indicators: warmer surface air temperatures, reduced sea-ice area, conversion of tundra to dense shrubs and wetland, and biological consequences. yet the arctic oscillation (ao), an indicator of arctic circulation and often considered to be part of the explanation for such changes, has shown a more episodic character (multi-year runs of positive or negative anomaly values). the ao, an indicator of primarily winter sea-level pressure--but also keyed to stratospheric variability thompson et al. 2000], has been near-neutral or negative for 6 of the previous 9 years, after a period of persistent positive anomalies in the early 1990s. thus there is an apparent paradox between the continuing climatic change trends in many surface-based indicators and the behavior of the ao. a further issue is that model projections of future arctic change show impacts from reduced sea ice primarily in winter arctic climate impact assessment acia ), 2004], while recent changes often occur in spring and summer.
When was regular monitoring initiated for other sites?
for other sites regular monitoring was initiated only after eutrophication was recognized as an environmental problem
When did monitoring begin for Mjosa?
monitoring began when tp concentrations were at their highest in the early 1970s (table 1,hobaek et al. 2012
Diatom core data for Mjosa showed clear evidence for the beginning of eutrophication at what time?
the diatom core data for mjosa (hobaek et al ., 2012), show very clear evidence for the beginning of eutrophication in the 1950s
for other sites regular monitoring was initiated only after eutrophication was recognized as an environmental problem. in the case of mjosa, for example, monitoring began when tp concentrations were at their highest in the early 1970s (table 1,hobaek et al. 2012). however, the diatom core data for mjosa (hobaek et al ., 2012), show very clear evidence for the beginning of eutrophication in the 1950s, marked by a decrease in cyclotella taxa and an increase in fragilaria crotonensis kitton and small stephanodiscus taxa. the core data show that the pre-1950 diatom flora was characterised by aulacoseira islandica (o. muller) simonsen, cyclotella pseudostelligera hustedt and achnanthes minutissima kutzing, taxa that are now re-appearing and increasing as the lake recovers.
Which settlements are more vulnerable, settlements with little economic diversification or diversified settlements?
those settlements with little economic diversifi cation-- where most income comes from climate-sensitive primary resource industries such as agriculture, forestry, and fi sheries--are more vulnerable than diversifi ed settlements
What percentage of households and businesses in low-income countries do not have disaster insurance?
99% of households and businesses in low-income countries do not have disaster insurance
How much of the population in urban centres in low-income countries lack piped water, waste collection, paved roads, sewers, and storm drains?
with half of the population of urban centres in low-income countries lacking piped water, waste collection, paved roads, sewers, and storm drains
those settlements with little economic diversifi cation-- where most income comes from climate-sensitive primary resource industries such as agriculture, forestry, and fi sheries--are more vulnerable than diversifi ed settlements. 99% of households and businesses in low-income countries do not have disaster insurance.129 as climate change intensifi es, the housing issue (eg, aff ordability and availability) is aggravated both in developed and developing countries, mostly aff ecting poor people. with half of the population of urban centres in low-income countries lacking piped water, waste collection, paved roads, sewers, and storm drains, their vulnerability has not been reduced by existing mechanisms that focus on social and economic development.73 with persistent vulnerability, poor people living in urban areas are more susceptible to increasing frequency and intensity of climate change.
What the Thermoelectric power usable capacity was quantified for?
thermoelectric power usable capacity was quantified for plants extracting river water for cooling
What distinctions the model makes?
the model makes a distinction between thermoelectric power plants using once-through cooling (equation 2) and recirculation (wet tower) cooling (equation 3
Which model the Thermoelectric power usable capacity uses?
the model of koch and vogele16
thermoelectric power usable capacity was quantified for plants extracting river water for cooling by using the model of koch and vogele16, which was modified as described in van vliet et al13. this model simulates the required water demand for cooling and then the usable power plant capacity based on required water withdrawal, streamflow, water temperature and power plant specific characteristics (e.g. efficiency (depending on technology), cooling system type, environmental restrictions on maximum temperatures and maximum extractions of river water for cooling). the model makes a distinction between thermoelectric power plants using once-through cooling (equation 2) and recirculation (wet tower) cooling (equation 3).
What is addressed in Section 3?
in section 3 we address ways in which mainstreaming might best be carried out at the national and project levels, and suggest how a climate risk management knowledge base and a screening tool can be developed for routine use in bank operations. we also propose to build experience on a pilot basis, and offer criteria for pilot selection. adaptation to climate change is not the concern of the bank alone. efforts to develop adaptation activities with international support are being made under the united nations framework convention on climate change and its funding mechanism the global environment facility (gef
What is addressed in Section 4?
in section 4, we turn to the wider international context and consider the bank's work in relation to the convention process. we suggest how the bank's development work and perspective could be harmonized with that of the convention, for mutual benefit. this section is also used to raise some additional emerging issues related to adaptation
What does the final section summarize?
the final section summarizes our perspective on how to move forward
we move in section 2 to a discussion of previous and ongoing bank work on adaptation in order to draw lessons from experience. an important conclusion is that climate change adaptation should not be dealt with in isolation, but should be mainstreamed into national development planning and into many (but not all) development projects. in section 3 we address ways in which mainstreaming might best be carried out at the national and project levels, and suggest how a climate risk management knowledge base and a screening tool can be developed for routine use in bank operations. we also propose to build experience on a pilot basis, and offer criteria for pilot selection. adaptation to climate change is not the concern of the bank alone. efforts to develop adaptation activities with international support are being made under the united nations framework convention on climate change and its funding mechanism the global environment facility (gef). in section 4, we turn to the wider international context and consider the bank's work in relation to the convention process. we suggest how the bank's development work and perspective could be harmonized with that of the convention, for mutual benefit. this section is also used to raise some additional emerging issues related to adaptation. the final section summarizes our perspective on how to move forward.
What survived longer than Q?
under any of the simulated scenarios, p. latifolia survived longer (in average) than q. ilex (figure 7
How temperature changes according to survival?
the survival of both species decreased as mean temperature (and et) increased, although the effect was relatively small (figure 7
For what Q. ilex mortality increased quickly?
for longer droughts q. ilex mortality increased quickly
under any of the simulated scenarios, p. latifolia survived longer (in average) than q. ilex (figure 7). as expected, the survival of both species decreased as mean temperature (and et) increased, although the effect was relatively small (figure 7). the time that both species resisted (mortality 5%) without rainfall was between 84 and 94 days for q. ilex and 133-150 days for p. latifolia the values for q. ilex are not far from the current conditions in the study area (5.4 mm in 77 days in the summer of 2000, that was not a particularly dry year). for longer droughts q. ilex mortality increased quickly. for example, a 50% mortality was reached between the day 127 (+4.5oc) and the day 145 (current temperature).
Which households are more likely to take up adaptation options?
female-headed households are more likely to take up adaptation options
Who have the higher chances of taking adaptive measures in response to observed changes?
farmers who are aware of changes in climatic conditions have higher chances of taking adaptive measures in response to observed changes
female-headed households are more likely to take up adaptation options. the possible reason for this observation is that in most rural smallholder farming communities in the region much of the agricultural work in done by women. since women do much of the agricultural work and men are more often based in towns, women have more farming experience and information on various management practices and how to change them based on available information on climatic conditions and other factors such as markets and food needs of the households. the important policy message from this finding is that targeting women groups and associations in smallholder rural communities can have significant positive impacts for increasing the uptake of adaptation measures by smallholder farmers. farmer experience increases the probability of uptake of all adaptation options. highly experienced farmers are likely to have more information and knowledge on changes in climatic conditions and crop and livestock management practices. experienced farmers are usually leaders and progressive farmers is rural communities and these can be targeted in promoting adaptation management to other farmers who do not have such experience and are not yet adapting to changing climatic conditions. making use of local successful lead farmers as entry points in promoting adaptation among smallholder farmers can have significant positive impacts in increasing use of various adaptation options. noticing climate change increases the probability of uptake of adaptation measures. farmers who are aware of changes in climatic conditions have higher chances of taking adaptive measures in response to observed changes. it is an important precondition for farmers to take up adaptation measures (madison 2006). raising awareness of changes in climatic conditions among farmers would have greater impact in increasing adaptation to changes in climatic conditions. it is therefore important for governments,
What is the purpose of IAMs?
iams are unequal in their coverage of climate impacts and this is one of the principal reasons why they differ in their estimates
What is the purpose of Tol's ?
tol's (2002) assessment, include a wide range of market and non-market impacts, but are restricted to gradual climate change
Who is identify the climate science?
schellnhuber et al
iams are unequal in their coverage of climate impacts and this is one of the principal reasons why they differ in their estimates. some (e.g. mendelsohn et al ., 1998) confine their attention to a narrow set of 'market' sectors of the economy such as agriculture and forestry (where prices exist or can be imputed relatively straightforwardly). direct, welfare-equivalent impacts on human health and ecosystems (socalled 'non-market' impacts, because no market prices exist) are omitted. other iams, such as tol's (2002) assessment, include a wide range of market and non-market impacts, but are restricted to gradual climate change. such studies omit the possibility of abrupt, large-scale and discontinuous climatic changes, which recent climate science has identified (e.g. schellnhuber et al ., 2006).
What is water-management agency planning is often based on?
water-management agency planning is often based on maximizing the expected net economic benefits to the nation
What is the expected net economic benefits calculation based on?
the expected net economic benefits are calculated based on a probability distribution for future conditions
Why have several authors proposed alternative decision criteria?
because of the uncertainty of future climate, several authors have proposed alternative decision criteria
water-management agency planning is often based on maximizing the expected net economic benefits to the nation. the expected net economic benefits are calculated based on a probability distribution for future conditions. because of the uncertainty of future climate, several authors have proposed alternative decision criteria. rather than trying to choose the right design for a likely future, "robustness" is an alternative criterion for planning (matalas, 1997). a robust decision criterion tries to choose plans that perform well over a wide range of possible future scenarios. fiering and kindler (1987) maintain that "optimality alone is not a sufficient characteristic of acceptable system design." water resources managers can be expected to be "surprised" in the future because of the increasing complexity of water resources management. surprises are counterexpected or unexpected events, and water resources planners should minimize the likelihood of surprise (fiering and kindler, 1987). a related concept is the decision criterion of minimizing the maximum regret. regret is the difference between the performance of some future alternative and the alternative that would have performed best for that particular future. the criterion can be used when the probabilities of future conditions are unknown or very uncertain. a robust strategy then can be defined as having little regret over a wide range of plausible futures (lempert and others, 2003). lempert and others (2003) proposed an approach that features robust decision criteria that they call robust decision 4 anticipating climate change: approaches for decisionmaking 25 making (rdm); it has four elements (lempert and others, 2003; dewar and wachs, 2006): consider a large number of scenarios that contain a range of plausible futures that are as diverse as possible. seek robust, rather than optimal, strategies that do well across a broad range of plausible futures. employ adaptive strategies to achieve robustness; adaptive strategies evolve over time in response to new information. use computer tools for interactive exploration of the multiplicity of plausible futures. dewar and wachs (2006) argue that robustness methods are superior to sensitivity analysis. robustness methods consider a wider range of possible situations, while a few sensitivity studies may not include some important system responses for situations not included in the few cases considered. the primary difference of the approach of lempert and others (2003) is the use of a large number of plausible future scenarios that can be generated by computer models. the scenarios that seem most closely associated with system vulnerabilities are first identified. an optimal policy does best for a fixed set of assumptions about the future. the robust policy performs well across a wide range of plausible futures. robust decision criteria are compatible with other decision criteria and could be an additional piece in a multicriteria decision problem.
Which field is relatively lacking in resources?
the sst anomaly field associated with cluster 1 is relatively devoid of features
There is a weak signature of an enhanced southern SST gradient, which equator on the Atlantic is it on?
there is a weak signature of an enhanced meridional sst gradient on the northern side of the equator in the atlantic
the sst anomaly field associated with cluster 1 is relatively devoid of features, suggesting that members of this cluster are not strongly controlled by anomalous local, regional, or remote low-level temperature structure. there is a weak signature of an enhanced meridional sst gradient on the northern side of the equator in the atlantic, which suggests a slightly positive amm index. the amm, which is reviewed in detail in kossin and vimont (2007), is a measure of the leading mode of coupled air-sea variability in the atlantic ocean. similarly, enso is the leading coupled mode in the pacific ocean and affects regional atlantic climate via teleconnections
What are the types of incentive for free riding?
there are two types of incentive for free riding: the incentive for a country to not sign the agreement and thus benefit from the signatories' abatement efforts; and the incentive for a signatory to not comply with commitments made in an agreement
What are reduced-stage game models and dynamic game models?
reduced-stage game models depict coalition formation as a two-stage game. in the first stage, countries decide on coalition formation. in the second stage, they choose abatement levels and how the gains from cooperation will be distributed (e.g., [18,14,23] ).2a number of reduced-stage models have addressed the possibility of giving countries the freedom to negotiate more than one climate agreement [10-12,17] a two-stage coalition game is used to show that when more than one coalition is possible, the equilibrium coalition structure that endogenously emerges from the negotiation process is characterized by several coalitions. it has also been shown that social welfare can be higher with multiple agreements than with a single global accord dynamic game models typically assume an infinitely repeated game where governments agree on a contract in the first stage that has to be enforced in subsequent stages through credible threats
State the advantage of this model ?
the main problem analyzed by these models is that a country can -- at least temporarily -- achieve net gains by free riding or by joining a smaller coalition
there are two types of incentive for free riding: the incentive for a country to not sign the agreement and thus benefit from the signatories' abatement efforts; and the incentive for a signatory to not comply with commitments made in an agreement. because of these free-rider incentives, there will generally be suboptimal equilibrium coalition structures in global pollution control there is a considerable body of literature addressing under-provision of global international pollution control.1an important focus of this literature is the conditions leading to the formation of multilateral agreements or coalitions. such agreements must be self-enforcing since there is no supranational authority to enforce compliance (e.g., [3,7] ). models of international environmental cooperation differ with respect to the specification of the utility functions of governments and the stability concept they employ. however, they can roughly be divided into two groups -- reduced-stage game models and dynamic game models reduced-stage game models depict coalition formation as a two-stage game. in the first stage, countries decide on coalition formation. in the second stage, they choose abatement levels and how the gains from cooperation will be distributed (e.g., [18,14,23] ).2a number of reduced-stage models have addressed the possibility of giving countries the freedom to negotiate more than one climate agreement [10-12,17] a two-stage coalition game is used to show that when more than one coalition is possible, the equilibrium coalition structure that endogenously emerges from the negotiation process is characterized by several coalitions. it has also been shown that social welfare can be higher with multiple agreements than with a single global accord dynamic game models typically assume an infinitely repeated game where governments agree on a contract in the first stage that has to be enforced in subsequent stages through credible threats (e.g., [3,5,7] ).3the main problem analyzed by these models is that a country can -- at least temporarily -- achieve net gains by free riding or by joining a smaller coalition. the literature on dynamic game models emphasizes that, to be effective, a treaty needs to specify a strategy that can enforce compliance. this entails that it must be in the (individual) best interest of each party to act in accordance with this strategy. furthermore, such an equilibrium agreement must be renegotiation-proof. in particular, it must be in the (collective) best interest of other countries to insist that a non-compliant country be punished before cooperation can be resumed [5,7,22] main results from dynamic game models include that the allocation of abatement burdens crucially affects the success of international environmental agreements, that a grand coalition is unlikely to form, and that a sub-coalition may achieve more for its members than the grand coalition. barrett uses a repeated game framework to demonstrate that a global treaty can be broadened to incorporate all countries (a consensus treaty), but at the cost of limiting the per-country level (the 'depth') of cooperation.4below we show that regional agreements can enhance participation even without limiting the depth of cooperation. our model largely follows barrett using farrell and maskin's weak renegotiation-proof equilibrium as solution
how is the temperature coeffiecient different than expressed in item 13.6.3?
it should be highlighted that the temperature coefficient thth for arceivala's equation is 1.035 differently from the coefficients expressed in item 13.6.3
how do the values of K obtained by the formulas compare?
it can be observed that the values of k obtained by the two formulas are very similar
what is the value obtained by the formulas?
a value of th lower than 1.035 is obtained
vidal (1983), after some simplifications by the author: k 0 091 2 05 x 10- 4. ls (13.9) it should be highlighted that the temperature coefficient thth for arceivala's equation is 1.035 differently from the coefficients expressed in item 13.6.3. with relation to vidal's equation, the temperature correction was not expressed in the usual arrhenius form, but through analysis of the original formula, a value of th lower than 1.035 is obtained. table13.6presentsthevaluesofkaccordingtoarceivalaandvidalfordifferent surface loading rates (for a liquid temperature of 20*c and inside of the validity range of the equations). it can be observed that the values of k obtained by the two formulas are very similar. experimental data obtained by the author and coworkers in facultative ponds acting as post-treatment for the effluent of uasb reactors showed good agreement with the removal coefficients k obtained with both equations.
How many low-power fields of view were examined for each of two slides per frog?
twenty-five low-power fields of view were examined for each of two slides per frog
Population count of how many amphibian species were conducted at Rainbow Bay?
population counts of nine amphibian species were conducted at rainbow bay, a 1-ha seasonal wetland on the savannah river site, from 1979 to 2004, as described previously (pechmann et al. 1991
Where were the captured animals released?
traps were checked daily, and captured animals were marked, sexed, recorded, and released on the opposite side of the drift fence
toes and skin were processed together and sectioned to give slides with longitudinal sections of toes and transverse sections of skin visible. twenty-five low-power fields of view were examined for each of two slides per frog. population counts of nine amphibian species were conducted at rainbow bay, a 1-ha seasonal wetland on the savannah river site, from 1979 to 2004, as described previously (pechmann et al. 1991). briefly, animals were captured in 40-l pitfall traps along a terrestrial drift fence that surrounds the wetland. traps were checked daily, and captured animals were marked, sexed, recorded, and released on the opposite side of the drift fence. these data allowed us to determine yearly totals for each species of the number of breeding females (i.e., breeding population size) and the number of offspring that metamorphosed successfully from the breeding site (i.e., the number of juveniles produced). however, bullfrogs,
Who reported an increase in pressure to provide food to the family due to changes in the weather?
men and women farmers
What did most farmers mention during qualitative discussions?
a decrease in quality of food over the past thirty years
What are issues of availability and sources of food?
key components of food security in relation to a changing climate
changes in food security due to changes in weather men and women farmers both reported an increase in pressure to provide food to the family as one of the primary changes in their lives due to changes in the weather. other areas related to food security, however, did not rank as highly. figure 6 demonstrates that "decreased quantity of food", "eating different kinds of food", and "decreased quality of food" were changes for only small percentages of the respondents (results similar for men and women answering separately; not shown here). in contrast, during qualitative discussions, most farmers did mention a decrease in quality of food over the past thirty years. based on their responses to the quantitative survey, it appears that farmers may not have associated the decrease in quality with changes in the weather. instead, they may have perceived the decreasing quality of food as resulting from the shift toward purchasing food (even though this shift is partly related to climatic changes affecting the viability of farming). the issues of availability and sources of food are key components of food security in relation to a changing climate and are discussed in subsequent sections of the report. over the course of the last thirty years, many changes have taken place in farming practices, infrastructure and government support which have intersected with changes in climate variability. it is not possible at this level of analysis to attribute changes in farmers' lives
What scenario would need to exist for changes in HS and TM display the same spatial distributions?
such agreement might occur if the global wave field were dominated by single-peaked spectra, e.g. simple cases of fetch-limited wave-growth or fully developed wind-seas
Were the results  in agreement with prior studiesSM12,SM13?
our results are in agreement with prior studiessm12,sm13 which have shown that waves are rarely in wind-wave equilibrium, with swell dominating the global wave field
we see in all ensemble members that the projected change signal of hs and tm do not display the same spatial distribution. such agreement might occur if the global wave field were dominated by single-peaked spectra, e.g. simple cases of fetch-limited wave-growth or fully developed wind-seas. under these conditions, non-dimensionalised hs and tm (using wind speed and gravity) vary dependently under conditions of active growth, following the usual jonswap relations of hasselmann et al.sm11. however, in the more normal open ocean conditions consisting of multiple sea-states (i.e., sea and swell), this dependent relationship no longer holds. consequently, projected changes in hs and tm do not display the same spatial distributions. our results are in agreement with prior studiessm12,sm13 which have shown that waves are rarely in wind-wave equilibrium, with swell dominating the global wave field.
What is the framework used based on?
we used an integrated framework based, in part, on a taxonomy of natural resource management actions developed by the iucn (international union for the conservation of nature) and conservation measures partnership (2006b
How were strategies organized?
strategies are numbered 1-16 under the four broad categories of conservation activities
Are monitoring activities important for climate-change adaptation?
monitoring or planning activities, which we nonetheless believe are important for effective climate-change adaptation
as part of our initial review of these documents, we compiled lists of strategies that appeared to be most relevant to the direct management of species and ecosystems. comparison of these lists quickly revealed that no one document provided a truly comprehensive set of strategies for the maintenance of biodiversity. to enhance future discussions, we used an integrated framework based, in part, on a taxonomy of natural resource management actions developed by the iucn (international union for the conservation of nature) and conservation measures partnership (2006b) to compile a reasonably complete set of strategies. strategies are numbered 1-16 under the four broad categories of conservation activities. this taxonomy does not include categories for monitoring or planning activities, which we nonetheless believe are important for effective climate-change adaptation.
the key beliefs predicts what?
all four key beliefs were significant predictors of issue involvement and injunctive beliefs, with risk perceptions having the strongest impact
What were the six variables?
finally, 52 percent of the variance in climate activism was explained by six variables: opinion leadership, civic engagement, activism response efficacy, injunctive beliefs, perceived barriers and gender
The 8 Discussion Examples of a growing U.S. climate movement?
protests against the keystone xl pipeline drew an estimated 40,000 people to the national mall in feb. 2013, and a million comments were submitted to the state department opposing the pipeline by late april; a national anti-coal campaign has shut down hundreds of existing and proposed coal-fired power plants; over 10,000 congregations have come together under the umbrella of interfaith power and light to activate faith communities; and a growing student and popular movement is pressuring universities, faith communities and cities to divest from fossil fuels. the congress, however, remains deadlocked on the issue, with climate skeptics blocking action. in light of research arguing that a legislative response to climate change is unlikely without increased levels of civic activism, we have examined some of the cognitive processes that motivate people to become involved; below, we explore the implications. 8.1 balancing risk and efficacy the key beliefs - that climate change is real, human caused, dangerous, and solvable - have been emphasized, to differing degrees, by communicators for some time
all four key beliefs were significant predictors of issue involvement and injunctive beliefs, with risk perceptions having the strongest impact. together, they explained 39 percent of the variance in injunctive beliefs and 68 percent of the variance in affective involvement. involvement and a history of civic engagement together explained 44 percent of the variance in opinion leadership, which in turn explained 22 percent of the variance in activism response efficacy. opinion leadership explained only 4 percent of the variance in self-efficacy. finally, 52 percent of the variance in climate activism was explained by six variables: opinion leadership, civic engagement, activism response efficacy, injunctive beliefs, perceived barriers and gender. in summary, the key beliefs and demographics explained 24 percent of the variance in activism, and the second-stage variables added an additional 28 percent of explained variance. 8 discussion examples of a growing u.s. climate movement are numerous: protests against the keystone xl pipeline drew an estimated 40,000 people to the national mall in feb. 2013, and a million comments were submitted to the state department opposing the pipeline by late april; a national anti-coal campaign has shut down hundreds of existing and proposed coal-fired power plants; over 10,000 congregations have come together under the umbrella of interfaith power and light to activate faith communities; and a growing student and popular movement is pressuring universities, faith communities and cities to divest from fossil fuels. the congress, however, remains deadlocked on the issue, with climate skeptics blocking action. in light of research arguing that a legislative response to climate change is unlikely without increased levels of civic activism, we have examined some of the cognitive processes that motivate people to become involved; below, we explore the implications. 8.1 balancing risk and efficacy the key beliefs - that climate change is real, human caused, dangerous, and solvable - have been emphasized, to differing degrees, by communicators for some time. this analysis
What did the model simulations for transport changes show?
examination of the model simulations for transport changes, though, produced ambiguous results for the limited data sets available
What will the Kodera and Kurodo study that used a simplified model show for the winter season?
the kodera and kuroda [2002] study used a simplified model to show that for the winter season, solar forcing should result in a decrease in the upward motion
Has progress taken place in simulating the solar cycle in ozone?
the current paper has confirmed the major progress which has taken place in simulating the solar cycle in ozone
the current paper has confirmed the major progress which has taken place in simulating the solar cycle in ozone. compared with the previous situation in which model results agreed poorly with observations soukharev and hood 2006], agreement is now obtained within the error bars of the observations and models concerning the structure of the tropical ozone solar response. earlier work [e.g., callis et al. 2001; langematz et al. 2005] has tended to explain the inability to simulate the observed minimum by including an additional chemical loss due to energetic electron precipitation, although it is not supported by experiments with a more realistic description of this odd nitrogen source rozanov et al. 2005a]. the results obtained here and elsewhere kodera and kuroda 2002; schmidt and brasseur 2006] now support more the idea that the structure is better described as a "double vertical peak' with the upper peak due to photolysis and the lower peak due to transport. between these two regions, neither process is particularly sensitive to the solar cycle. further, in the mean model result shown in figure 3, the minimum solar response broadly follows the tropopause, with a higher altitude over the tropics and a lower altitude over the polar regions. the cmam results (figures 5 and 6) also provide indirect evidence of the importance of dynamics on the lower stratospheric solar response. for this model, a solar response occurred despite the absence of explicit solar forcing, but this response varied according to the period. in this case, it is plausible that this is a dynamical effect induced by the sea surface temperatures which bear a different relationship to f10.7 during different periods. the kodera and kuroda [2002] study used a simplified model to show that for the winter season, solar forcing should result in a decrease in the upward motion. if it is assumed that the winter season dominates the annual average, then this would give rise to the temperature and ozone effects seen in the observations and simulations. examination of the model simulations for transport changes, though, produced ambiguous results for the limited data sets available: the model results for water vapor and age of air were not apparently consistent with each other. figure 14. age of air solar response averaged over the latitude range 25  s to 25  n in those models with a solar cycle (left), and in those models without explicit solar forcing (right). for clarity, the error bars are not shown for all the models.
How important is moisture effect?
however, moisture had an important indirect effect because of the influence it has on vegetation productivity and hence organic carbon inputs to the soil
What was examined?
differing soil carbon behaviour were examined
What are  the important direct effects of moisture on heterotrophic respirations?
at three of the points examined the direct effects of moisture changes on heterotrophic respiration were less important than those of temperature or carbon inputs
individual points characteristic of regions with differing soil carbon behaviour were examined. there was generally competition between increased input to the stock of soil carbon from increased organic carbon inputs and increased respiration because of elevated temperatures. the balance between these two opposing factors varied regionally, but these variations were simulated similarly in the two models. in each case hadcm3lc simulated a larger magnitude of change in response to the individual temperature or carbon input forcing. it simulated a greater rate of accumulation of carbon in response to increased organic carbon input and a slightly greater rate of release in response to elevated temperatures. at three of the points examined the direct effects of moisture changes on heterotrophic respiration were less important than those of temperature or carbon inputs. however, moisture had an important indirect effect because of the influence it has on vegetation productivity and hence organic carbon inputs to the soil; this was particularly pronounced at the point in amazonia. the high level of agreement between these two models that have different soil carbon dynamics and different sensitivities to temperature and moisture increases confidence in the simulations of the climate carbon cycle feedback. hence, while the long-term response of heterotrophic respiration to changes in temperature and moisture is still uncertain, these simulations demonstrate that a more sophisticated representation of multipool soil carbon dynamics modifies, but does not fundamentally change, the conclusions of previous work with a simple soil carbon model. however, such improvements to the treatment of soil carbon are critical if we are to be able to accurately and quantitatively address questions regarding the impact of land-management practices and future climate changes on terrestrial carbon sinks.
In order to focus on some analytical issues how was the problem presented?
to keep things simple and focus on some analytical issues, we have so far effectively presented the policy problem in terms of a once-and-for-all decision on how much to abate ghg emissions
Is this course realistic in the face of new findings in terms of costs and benefits?
this is of course unrealistic and we must take into account the opportunities that decision-makers will have to adjust abatement effort, when new information comes to light on its costs and benefits
Is there enough research material on timing of abatement and relationship between long term and short term emission reductions?
indeed, there is an established and growing literature that investigates the timing of abatement and the relationship between short-term and long-term emission reductions, assuming that learning will resolve some of the uncertainties discussed above (see ingham and ulph, 2005; fisher and nackicenovic, 2007
to keep things simple and focus on some analytical issues, we have so far effectively presented the policy problem in terms of a once-and-for-all decision on how much to abate ghg emissions. this is of course unrealistic and we must take into account the opportunities that decision-makers will have to adjust abatement effort, when new information comes to light on its costs and benefits. indeed, there is an established and growing literature that investigates the timing of abatement and the relationship between short-term and long-term emission reductions, assuming that learning will resolve some of the uncertainties discussed above (see ingham and ulph, 2005; fisher and nackicenovic, 2007).
What do the observational records of the chemical composition indicate?
observational records of the chemical composition of the atmosphere indicate dramatic anthropogenic changes in concentrations of trace gases, such as carbon dioxide, ozone, methane, nitrous oxide, and the cfcs
Can chemical processes affect the physical climate system?
on the other hand, chemical processes can also affect the physical climate system. changes in stratospheric ozone have major effects on the temperature of the stratosphere and on the transmission of ultraviolet radiation to the earth's surface
What time period will evaluations take into account?
evaluation will be based on extensive data analysis and diagnostic studies for the last two decades, for which good data on atmospheric composition exist
mesosphere-energetics-dynamics mission and the high-resolution dynamics limb sounder. the upward-extended version of the atmospheric component of the ccsm will still be capable of coupling with the ocean and sea-ice models. a major application of the model will be to investigate the effects of solar variability on the atmosphere and climate system. b. chemistry changes in the chemical composition of the atmosphere are the fundamental driver of anthropogenic climate change. observational records of the chemical composition of the atmosphere indicate dramatic anthropogenic changes in concentrations of trace gases, such as carbon dioxide, ozone, methane, nitrous oxide, and the cfcs. moreover, vegetation can act as a natural source or sink of chemical species. the atmospheric circulation and atmospheric physical processes strongly affect the chemical processes at work in the atmosphere. chemical trace gases and aerosols are rapidly redistributed in the vertical by atmospheric convection. cloud processes and properties affect aqueous-phase production rates. on the other hand, chemical processes can also affect the physical climate system. changes in stratospheric ozone have major effects on the temperature of the stratosphere and on the transmission of ultraviolet radiation to the earth's surface. in addition, aerosols reflect and absorb radiation, and also modify cloud scattering properties--the "indirect effect." aerosols interact with chemical processes as sites for heterogeneous reactions and by altering the actinic flux for photolysis. changes in the amount of clouds, the amount of liquid water in clouds, and their lifetime will result in changes in chemical production and removal of species through wet deposition. our current foci are the carbon cycle and the interactions among aerosols, clouds, and radiation. the current ccsm relies on prescribed or highly constrained distributions of chemical species. an integrated chemistry model would allow simulation of these and other interactions between chemical species and the climate system. c. biogeochemistry interactions between the physical and biogeochemical climate systems under past, present, and future climates determine the carbon cycle's natural interannual variability and its response to forced decadal-to-centennial perturbations (e.g., greenhouse warming and land-use change). we are developing, evaluating, and coupling a suite of global, prognostic biogeochemical component models (land, ocean, and atmosphere) within the framework of the ccsm. evaluation will be based on extensive data analysis and diagnostic studies for the last two decades, for which good data on atmospheric composition exist. as improved models and resources become available, the effects of other radiatively and chemically important species, such as ch4, organic halides, and sulfur species, will be included. about 60% of anthropogenic carbon emissions from fossil fuel burning are removed by oceanic and terrestrial sinks, each estimated to contribute about - 2 petagrams of carbon per year (schimel et al. 1995). the physical mechanism for the dissolution of excess co2 into the ocean is reasonably well understood if not fully quantified, but the terrestrial sink is poorly determined as a mix of forest regrowth, co2 and nitrogen (n) fertilization, and climate effects (schimel et al. 1995). on interannual timescales, the absolute magnitude of the co2 sinks and their partitioning between land and ocean vary considerably (rayner et al.
What can be forced with heating or vorticity sources anywhere from Europe to western North America along the Asian/Pacific jet?
reof 2 can be forced with heating or vorticity sources anywhere from europe to western north america along the asian/pacific jet
Where does the largest response in REOF 2 to heating occur?
the largest response in reof 2 to heating occurs just off the west coast of north america
Where does the strongest response to vorticity forcing occur?
the strongest response to vorticity forcing occurs just south of the jet in the western pacific
the next set of panels (second from the top) in fig. 12 shows that reof 2 can be forced with heating or vorticity sources anywhere from europe to western north america along the asian/pacific jet. the largest response in reof 2 to heating occurs just off the west coast of north america, while the strongest response to vorticity forcing occurs just south of the jet in the western pacific. reof 3 (third row form the top in fig. 12) is most readily forced (with both heating and vorticity sources) in a broad region extending from the eastern pacific just south of the jet, across the united states and mexico, into the north atlantic.
Can the realism of climate change projection for the future be directly validated?
the realism of climate change projection for the future, including various downscaling approaches, cannot be directly validated
What can the delta approach do to the GCM baseline data?
although our approach does not ''improve'' the gcm-projected changes at the local scale, our delta approach can substantially reduce the amount of error associated with the gcm baseline data
What is important for many climate change-related studies?
however, projections with absolute values are important for many climatechangerelated studies including projections of bioclimate envelopes for ecosystems and species ranges in future periods
the realism of climate change projection for the future, including various downscaling approaches, cannot be directly validated. it is possible that climate change may fundamentally alter local weather patterns at small scales (fyfe and flato 1999; fowler et al. 2007), and such changes are obviously not accounted for with the delta approach or other statistical downscaling methods. our main objectives are to reduce the errors associated with gcm baseline data for the reference period 1961-90 and to avoid large step artifacts at boundaries of large-scale gcm grid cells. although our approach does not ''improve'' the gcm-projected changes at the local scale, our delta approach can substantially reduce the amount of error associated with the gcm baseline data. for example, the average in mat of 20 gcm predictions for vancouver is 6.0 8 c cooler than the observation from weather stations for the reference period 1961-90 because of the low resolution. consequently, the average projection of these gcms for 2020s is still 4.1 8 c cooler than the observation for the reference period. climatewna can eliminate the majority of this error and generate reasonable projections for future periods. many studies use the gcm-predicted changes (anomalies) to avoid this error; however, projections with absolute values are important for many climatechangerelated studies including projections of bioclimate envelopes for ecosystems and species ranges in future periods. in addition, the climatewna software package provides a convenient platform to integrate downscaled gcm data from other downscaling methods including dynamical [regional climate model (rcm)] or statistical
Is the existing gas pipeline capacity sufficient for demand at peak periods?
the existing gas pipeline capacity in the region would potentially be insufficient to supply the demand of the 45% increase in gas-generating plants at peak periods, a fact that has caused gas supply problems since 2003
When was the problem with blackouts in Boston's grid identified?
the problem was highlighted in spring 2000 when an unexpected heatwave forced the power companies to call boston customers to cut down on electricity use in order to prevent blackouts
Does the grid of New York have a similar problem with blackouts?
other cities have similar problems, such as new york where 2000 residents lost power in 1999 prompting the city to plan to install 10 mini-power plants as back-up to its main lines - a seemingly pointless gesture in the face of the scale of the 2003 blackouts
during peak demand some advanced gas turbine plants would not be able to switch quickly enough to their back-up oil supplies to avoid temporary outages. <s121>* the existing gas pipeline capacity in the region would potentially be insufficient to supply the demand of the 45% increase in gas-generating plants at peak periods, a fact that has caused gas supply problems since 2003. <s121>* the pipeline construction and power generation companies are not one and the same. there is concern that the new england power supply system, like that of california but for different reasons, will not be able to meet demand within a matter of years. the boston area is particularly vulnerable as the ageing grid in the area is considered, as in many other areas of the usa, to be on the brink of failure. the competitive market is also failing as suppliers are pulling out of the market rather than jumping in. the problem was highlighted in spring 2000 when an unexpected heatwave forced the power companies to call boston customers to cut down on electricity use in order to prevent blackouts. other cities have similar problems, such as new york where 2000 residents lost power in 1999 prompting the city to plan to install 10 mini-power plants as back-up to its main lines - a seemingly pointless gesture in the face of the scale of the 2003 blackouts. more free ebooks http://fast-file.blogspot.com
Who developed a methodology for determining the discount rate for climate models?
weitzman (2001) presents a novel methodology for arriving at the discount rate
Why do discount rates help with climate change models?
this is a vital task for assessing climate policies because they usually have short-run costs but long-run benefits that accrue mainly to future generations
What are discount rates used for?
discount rates allow us to aggregate costs and benefits that are distributed across time
discount rates allow us to aggregate costs and benefits that are distributed across time. this is a vital task for assessing climate policies because they usually have short-run costs but long-run benefits that accrue mainly to future generations. calculating discount rates requires us to account for both empirical uncertainties and normative disagreements about the values of welfare parameters. empirical uncertainties in the discount rate derive largely from uncertainty about the future growth rate of the global economy. the rate of economic growth enters the discount rate through the ramsey formula, which breaks the discount rate r into two components: one that depends on how much weight we give to the welfare of future generations (the pure rate of time preference d and one that depends on aversion to inequality in consumption between generations (the product of the elasticity of the marginal utility of consumption z and the consumption growth rate g ): r  1/4  d z g hence if there is uncertainty about future economic growth rates g then there is also uncertainty about how to discount future changes in consumption (arrow et al. 2012; gollier 2012) and thus the benefits of climate policy. weitzman (2001) presents a novel methodology for arriving at the discount rate. he notes that different economists recommend different discount rates and suggests that we view these rates as independent estimates of the true underlying rate, which is uncertain. more specifically,
What is the value of R2?
0.35
What is the adjusted value for Brazil and India, respectively?
0.40 and 0.56
What details the Table 3?
marginal impacts of climate on crop net revenue
the adjusted r2 of our estimation results are also similar to that in other countries, for example, in the research of africa (kurukulasuriya and mendelson, 2008) the adjusted r2is 0.35; for brazil and india, it is 0.40 and 0.56, separately (mendelson et al., 2007). 5 the proximity to township government may not matter because townships are small or government is not. the amount of irrigation in the village may not matter if it does not reflect the irrigation on the farm itself. finally, the education of laborers may not matter because better educated laborers may cost more. 6 for both spring wheat and early rice in china, their planting seasons are from february to april. if the winter temperature is warmer, their planting seasons can begin earlier. table 3 marginal impacts of climate on crop net revenue all farms irrigated rainfed irrigated or farms farms rainfed farms temperature (usd/ha/*c) spring - 230** - 49* - 143** - 153**
What is the highlight of the first results?
first results highlight that adaptation, mitigation and investment in r&d are competing choices. this is not surprising as resources available to policy makers are finite; accordingly when a new option to fight climate change damages is viable and effectively undertaken a lower amount of resources is available to other strategies
How the adaptation reflecting on the climate change?
adaptation, reducing the negative effect of climate change, also reduces the need to mitigate
What is a highlighted in the figure 6?
ighlighted by figure 6 measuring total welfare represented by discounted consumption. endowing the policy maker with an additional instrument increases the welfare effect of the global strategy
these first results highlight that adaptation, mitigation and investment in r&d are competing choices. this is not surprising as resources available to policy makers are finite; accordingly when a new option to fight climate change damages is viable and effectively undertaken a lower amount of resources is available to other strategies. moreover, adaptation, reducing the negative effect of climate change, also reduces the need to mitigate. however all the three strategies coexist thus they are strategic complements for an optimal management of the climate change problem. this is also highlighted by figure 6 measuring total welfare represented by discounted consumption. endowing the policy maker with an additional instrument increases the welfare effect of the global strategy.
What are the existing dangers for people living in coastal areas?
hus, the ~ 600 million people in coastal regions below 10 m elevation are increasingly at risk from the interactive hazards of slr, storms, flooding, rising temperatures, reductions in sea ice, changes in freshwater runoff, increasing variability and extremes in weather, and acidification of coastal waters that are being exacerbated by global climate change (4, 10, 11, 23
the unequivocal global temperature increase (19) and other climatic changes are already beginning to add pressures on coastal environments. global sea-level rise (slr), a major long-term and--on human timescales-- permanent effect of climate warming is impacting coasts now and will have increasingly significant social and economic impacts on coastal and low-lying regions worldwide (20-22). the effects of slr on coasts are not uniform, however, but vary considerably regionally and over a range of temporal scales (20, 22). the effects will be greatest on low-relief, low-elevation coasts, such as deltas, coastal plains, and islands, many of which are also subsiding, as well as on densely populated and vulnerable urbanized coasts (11). thus, the ~ 600 million people in coastal regions below 10 m elevation are increasingly at risk from the interactive hazards of slr, storms, flooding, rising temperatures, reductions in sea ice, changes in freshwater runoff, increasing variability and extremes in weather, and acidification of coastal waters that are being exacerbated by global climate change (4, 10, 11, 23). understanding and predicting with confidence how these global environmental changes will affect coastal regions is a major challenge for scientists and engineers. meanwhile, policy makers together with affected stakeholders must determine how society chooses to address these emerging challenges in addition to those already faced, ideally in ways that are cost-effective and sustainable. yet, deep-seated drivers behind the draw of humans to the coast, the inherent complexity of coastal systems, the plethora of environmental challenges affecting the coasts, and their synergistic and cumulative effects on humans make placespecific, decision-relevant forecasts difficult. such limits to understanding combined with a relative lack of awareness among decision makers and the public of the growing threats from climate change to coastal populations, ecosystems, and resources; the insufficiency of compartmentalized solutions; and differing perspectives among stakeholders on them make global environmental change in coastal areas truly a wicked problem (24).
When does the level of the oxypause varies?
the level of the oxypause varies during the 24 hours of the day, as a function of the variability of the photosynthesis during this period
What happens at the oxypause during the night?
at night, the oxypause level rises in the pond, while during the day it lowers down
What does figure 13.4 schematically illustrate?
figure 13.4 schematically illustrates the influence of the loading conditions on the thickness of the aerobic layer. the ph in the pond also varies with the depth and along the day
above the oxypause, aerobic conditions prevail, while below it, anoxic or anaerobic conditions predominate. the level of the oxypause varies during the 24 hours of the day, as a function of the variability of the photosynthesis during this period. at night, the oxypause level rises in the pond, while during the day it lowers down. the thickness of the aerobic zone, besides varying along the day, also varies with the loading conditions of the pond. ponds with a greater bod load tend to have a larger anaerobic layer, which can practically take up the whole pond depth during the night. figure 13.4 schematically illustrates the influence of the loading conditions on the thickness of the aerobic layer. the ph in the pond also varies with the depth and along the day. the ph depends on the photosynthesis and respiration, according to:
Which thesis is resulting from the enterprise of climate prediction and the practice of epistemological slippage?
i then defend my thesis climate reductionism resulting from the enterprise of climate prediction and the practice of epistemological slippage drawing upon key events, developments and texts from the 1960s to 1990s
What is demonstrated by the author?
in particular i demonstrate the asymmetry between representations of future climate versus social change which has persisted in the conduct of climate impact assessments
Which region is pessimist as per the author?
i conclude the paper by placing this reductionist tendency within a wider cultural context of western pessimism and loss of confidence about the future and by pointing towards some correctives which involve restructuring ideas about how the future can be imagined and made known
before elaborating this proposition, i first offer a brief account of the decline in climate determinism through the twentieth century before illustrating the recent rise of reductionist thinking. i then defend my thesis climate reductionism resulting from the enterprise of climate prediction and the practice of epistemological slippage drawing upon key events, developments and texts from the 1960s to 1990s. in particular i demonstrate the asymmetry between representations of future climate versus social change which has persisted in the conduct of climate impact assessments. i conclude the paper by placing this reductionist tendency within a wider cultural context of western pessimism and loss of confidence about the future and by pointing towards some correctives which involve restructuring ideas about how the future can be imagined and made known.
What did the international community agreed on in 2010?
the international community agreed in 2010 that it would seek to limit the rise in the planet's average air temperature to no more than 2degc above pre-industrial levels
What does the world needs to have a reasonable chance of staying below the 2degC limit?
o have a reasonable chance of staying below the 2degc limit, the world needs to achieve a drastic reversal in current ghg emission trends
To how much must carbon dioxide emissions be reduced?
carbon dioxide emissions alone will need to be reduced to net zero--by 2060-2075 (from 35.5 gt in 2014).5
the international community agreed in 2010 that it would seek to limit the rise in the planet's average air temperature to no more than 2degc above pre-industrial levels. it has been widely accepted for some time that global warming above that level should be avoided, although some scientists argue that this target does not take into account the much larger heat absorption by oceans and that it should therefore be lowered or abandoned altogether in favour of a broader set of measures.4 to have a reasonable chance of staying below the 2degc limit, the world needs to achieve a drastic reversal in current ghg emission trends. with some gases (e.g. carbon dioxide) staying in the atmosphere for a century and future emissions forecast to rise if no action is taken, globally coordinated measures are needed to bring emissions under control. the united nations environment programme (unep) estimates that global ghg emission levels, which were at 52.7 gigatonnes (gt) of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2014, should be brought down to 48 gt by 2025, and 42 gt in 2030. carbon dioxide emissions alone will need to be reduced to net zero--by 2060-2075 (from 35.5 gt in 2014).5
Why does Global warming lead to increase in jellyfish?
global warming could lead to jellyfish increases because of their physiological response and its effect on plankton foodwebs
Which kind of jellyfish cannot benefit higher temperatures?
tropical jellyfish could decline in abundance because many species may have a thermal maximum around 34-35 8 c
a. j. richardson healthy pelagic ecosystems, evidence is accumulating that the severity and frequency of outbreaks is increasing in many areas, including the bering sea, northeastern us shelf, gulf of maine, gulf of mexico, azov sea, black sea, caspian sea, northern benguela upwelling ecosystem, east china and yellow seas, sea of japan, and seto inland sea [see reviews by mills (2001), purcell et al (2007), and references therein]. for example, in the northern benguela upwelling ecosystem off namibia, jellyfish now outweigh fish in terms of total biomass (lynam et al ., 2006). however, there is no general agreement on the causes underlying the observed increases, and a suite of human activities, including climate change, as well as overfishing, eutrophication, translocation, and habitat modification, are likely to be responsible (purcell et al. 2007). global warming could lead to jellyfish increases because of their physiological response and its effect on plankton foodwebs. in an analysis of 15 long-term jellyfish and ctenophore time-series, purcell (2005) found that 11 species increased in abundance with warming. she concluded that temperate species may benefit from global warming, but tropical jellyfish could decline in abundance because many species may have a thermal maximum around 34-35 8 c. further, experimental evidence suggests that jellyfish exhibit faster rates of both asexual and sexual reproduction at warmer temperatures (purcell, 2005). global warming also enhances stratification, causing flagellates to outcompete diatoms in the nutrient-poor surface waters. many jellyfish have broad diets and can feed satisfactorily on flagellates. however, flagellates are a poor food source for fish, so jellyfish may do better than their fish competitors and predators under warmer conditions (parsons and lalli, 2002).
What defines industrial wastewater flow?
industrial wastewater flow is a function of the type and size of the industry, manufacturing process, level of recycling, existence of pre-treatment, etc
Can industries that produce similar products have different wastewater flows?
even in the case of two industries that manufacture essentially the same product, the wastewater flows can diverge substantially
What importance does industrial wastewater have in the planning and operation of a WWTP?
industrial wastewater has a great influence in the planning and operation of a wwtp
industrial wastewater flow is a function of the type and size of the industry, manufacturing process, level of recycling, existence of pre-treatment, etc. even in the case of two industries that manufacture essentially the same product, the wastewater flows can diverge substantially. if there are large industries contributing to the public sewerage system and subsequently to a wwtp, the adequate evaluation of their respective flows is of great importance. industrial wastewater has a great influence in the planning and operation of a wwtp. specific data must be obtained for each significant industry, through industrial surveys, thus allowing the supply of data of interest for the project. with relation to the water consumption and the generation of wastewater, the following information at least must be obtained for the main industries:
How are characteristics of the sludge layer changeable?
the thickness and the characteristics of the sludge layer vary inside the ponds, depending on their geometry and on the positioning of the inlet and outlet structures
Who observed the patterns?
different profile patterns were observed by gon,calves (1999
What to do if the sludge is not removed?
in case the sludge is not removed, at least the inclusion of a grit chamber and the redistribution of the emerging sludge layer and of the pond inlets should be performed
the thickness and the characteristics of the sludge layer vary inside the ponds, depending on their geometry and on the positioning of the inlet and outlet structures. different profile patterns were observed by gon,calves (1999), but the most frequent one, mainly in primary ponds and in elongated (baffled) ponds, is that of a higher sludge layer close to the inlet. the greatest concern occurs when the sludge layer rises up to and over the water surface, allowing the release of malodorous compounds (figure 22.1). this situation happens more frequently in ponds without previous grit removal and in anaerobic ponds. in case the sludge is not removed, at least the inclusion of a grit chamber and the redistribution of the emerging sludge layer and of the pond inlets should be performed.
When did they calcualte the positive phase and negative phase?
we separately calculate the positive phase of 1966-70 and the negative phase of 1971-75
What does the atmospheric circulation show?
atmospheric circulation shows ascent over warm sst anomalies and descent over cold sst anomalies for either phase, there are differences between the positive and negative phases of the meridional gradient variability
Examples of meridonal  gradient variability?
the upper tropospheric anomalous divergent outflow center for the negative phase of 1971-75 is further eastward in comparison with the anomalous convergent inflow center over the amazon for the positive phase of 1966-70. for both the posithe hadley circulation
as was discussed in the some studies have claimed that the tropical atlantic meridional gradient variability is an antisymmetric "dipole" mode, while others show that the tna and tsa vary independently and have different time scales. therefore, we separately calculate the positive phase of 1966-70 and the negative phase of 1971-75. although atmospheric circulation shows ascent over warm sst anomalies and descent over cold sst anomalies for either phase, there are differences between the positive and negative phases of the meridional gradient variability. for example, the upper tropospheric anomalous divergent outflow center for the negative phase of 1971-75 is further eastward in comparison with the anomalous convergent inflow center over the amazon for the positive phase of 1966-70. for both the posithe hadley circulation
What are the bi-products of heterotrophic biomass decay?
the decay of the heterotrophic biomass generates, besides the inert residue, slowly degradable carbonaceous and nitrogenous matter
What is the hydrolysis process?
these subsequently need to undergo the hydrolysis process, to be converted into rapidly-biodegradable matter, which can be used again by the heterotrophic and autotrophic biomass
What do heterotrophic bacteria use nitrogen for?
the heterotrophic bacteria use nitrogen in the form of ammonia for synthesis (in aerobic and anoxic conditions) and nitrogen in the form of nitrate as an electron acceptor (in anoxic conditions
active heterotrophic biomass the carbon source for the heterotrophic organisms is the carbonaceous organic matter. the heterotrophic biomass uses the rapidly biodegradable carbonaceous matter (soluble). part of the energy associated with these molecules is incorporated into the biomass, while the remainder is used to supply energy for synthesis. in aerobic treatment, the growth of the heterotrophic biomass is possible in aerobic (using oxygen as an electron acceptor - see chapter 7) or anoxic (absence of oxygen, by using the nitrate as an electron acceptor) conditions, but is very low in anaerobic conditions (absence of oxygen or nitrate). the heterotrophic bacteria use nitrogen in the form of ammonia for synthesis (in aerobic and anoxic conditions) and nitrogen in the form of nitrate as an electron acceptor (in anoxic conditions). the decay of the heterotrophic biomass generates, besides the inert residue, slowly degradable carbonaceous and nitrogenous matter. these subsequently need to undergo the hydrolysis process, to be converted into rapidly-biodegradable matter, which can be used again by the heterotrophic and autotrophic biomass. conversion processes of organic and inorganic matter 371
What these results help explain?
the paradox in public risk perceptions, in which americans appear concerned about climate change, but do not consider it a high priority relative to other national or environmental issues
What the study found out?
found that, in aggregate, americans perceive climate change as a moderate risk, but think the impacts will mostly affect people and places that are geographically and temporally distant
Who are more impacted in human health likely to be the greatest dangers of climate change?
human societies, especially for the poor and children in developing countries that lack access to adequate nutrition, clean water, or medical care (ipcc, 2001, p. 12; watson mcmichael, 2001
these results help explain the paradox in public risk perceptions, in which americans appear concerned about climate change, but do not consider it a high priority relative to other national or environmental issues. this study found that, in aggregate, americans perceive climate change as a moderate risk, but think the impacts will mostly affect people and places that are geographically and temporally distant. critically, this study found that most americans lack vivid, concrete, and personally relevant affective images of climate change. furthermore, one of the most important findings was what was missing in these results. there were no associations to the impacts of climate change on human health. there were no associations to temperature-related morbidity and mortality (e.g., heat stroke), health effects of extreme weather events (tornadoes, hurricanes, or precipitation extremes), air-pollution health effects (e.g., asthma and allergies), waterand food-borne disease (e.g., cholera, escherichia coli infections, giardia), or vectorand rodent-borne disease (e.g., malaria, west nile virus, hantavirus pulmonary syndrome), all of which are potential health consequences of global climate change (mcmichael githeko, 2001; national assessment synthesis team, 2001; patz et al ., 2000). yet, human health impacts are likely to be among the greatest dangers of climate change for human societies, especially for the poor and children in developing countries that lack access to adequate nutrition, clean water, or medical care (ipcc, 2001, p. 12; watson mcmichael, 2001). this finding (or the lack thereof) that americans do not currently associate global warming with american risk perceptions 1439
Why do many stuties interpolate GCM data?
to obtain regional projections of future changes in climate
What questions have been raised about the results of many studies?
about the validity of the interpolation methods and the accuracy of the results
What are major concerns for both irrigated and non-irrigated crops across the country?
increased moisture stress and drought
as with other sectors, concerns exist about the resolution of gcm output when modelling agricultural impacts (e.g., reference 12). many studies interpolate gcm data to obtain regional projections of future changes in climate. questions have been raised about the validity of the interpolation methods and the accuracy of the results, especially for regions with specific microclimates (e.g., niagara peninsula, annapolis valley). with respect to methodology, however, a recent statistical study concluded that differences in the downscaling methods used to address scale issues do not unduly influence study results, (14)thereby increasing general confidence in model projections. increased moisture stress and drought are major concerns for both irrigated and non-irrigated crops across the country. if adequate water is not available, production declines and entire harvests can be lost. while climate change is expected to cause moisture patterns to shift, there is still considerable uncertainty concerning the magnitude and direction of such changes. furthermore, longer growing seasons and higher temperatures would be expected to increase demand for water, as would changes in the frequency of drought. boxes 1 and 2 describe the results of recent studies that examined how climate change may affect moisture conditions in the prairies and the okanagan valley, two of the driest agricultural regions of canada.
How could climate hazard zones be prepared?
climate hazard zones could be prepared along similar lines at a regional level and cities falling within various zones would be identified
What would follow GIS platform?
this would be followed by an assessment of socio-economic vulnerability and bio-physical vulnerability, which would be represented on the gis overlays
What is an important adaptation planning in Indian cities?
institutional mainstreaming of adaptation is an essential milestone in adaptation planning in indian cities
institutional mainstreaming of adaptation is an essential milestone in adaptation planning in indian cities. but a lot of preparatory research and orientation is required to enable long-term and sustainable institutions aimed at climate response. a few points of intervention that might facilitate and bolster the mainstreaming efforts are outlined below. outsourcing research to understand the impacts of climate change - translating global impacts into local effects this can be achieved either by outsourcing the research to institutes/universities or partnering with the central agency involved in climate change research. the planning commission of india has divided india into 15 agro-climatic zones. climate hazard zones could be prepared along similar lines at a regional level and cities falling within various zones would be identified. this could be mapped on a gis platform and overlays could be prepared to understand specific geographic risks. this would be followed by an assessment of socio-economic vulnerability and bio-physical vulnerability, which would be represented on the gis overlays. integrating these maps with city land use plans would then give a direction for development planning and investment allocation. this could be a national level exercise, with various states being involved in identifying their pilot cities for research, follow up and implementation.
In the hot season, what are the NARCCAP average rPAV values? are 70% (60%) in mountainous regions and 60 55%) in non-mountainous regions for the local (regional) measure
in the warm season, the narccap mean rpav values is 70% (60%) in mountainous regions and 60 55%) in non-mountainous regions for the local (regional) measure
This season, how are the much smaller values in the rPAV measure estimated? They are estimated using the NARR data set
in this season, much smaller values on the rpav measure are estimated when using the narr dataset
Why do differences arise between NARCCAP and NARR? Arise because NARR tend to slightly underestimate rPAV values in the east and west
differences between narccap and narr arise because narr tend to slightly underestimate rpav values in both eastern and western regions, and the narccap ensemble-mean tends to overestimate rpav values
in the warm season, the narccap mean rpav values is 70% (60%) in mountainous regions and 60 55%) in non-mountainous regions for the local (regional) measure. in this season, much smaller values on the rpav measure are estimated when using the narr dataset. as it will be clear in the next section when including in the analysis cpc results, differences between narccap and narr arise because narr tend to slightly underestimate rpav values in both eastern and western regions, and the narccap ensemble-mean tends to overestimate rpav values, particularly in western regions. 5.3.2 low temporal resolution data figure 9 shows pav (top panels) and rpav (bottom panels) for the spatial-maximum 95th percentile for the 16-day
How many bids were randomly assigned among respondents? Eight different bids ranging from AUD 201 to AUD 400 per month per household
eight different bids ranging from aud 201 to aud 400 per month per household were randomly assigned across the respondents
How was the behavior with the interviewees? Respondents received no information about the potential for global cooperation at this stage
respondents were not given any information about the potential for global co-operation at this stage
How were respondents advised? were advised to maintain their perceptions of the likelihood of reaching a broader global consensus on emission reduction targets
they were advised to keep their perceptions about the likelihood of reaching a broader global consensus about emissions reduction targets in mind when answering the first wtp question
eight different bids ranging from aud 201 to aud 400 per month per household were randomly assigned across the respondents2. respondents were not given any information about the potential for global co-operation at this stage. instead, they were advised to keep their perceptions about the likelihood of reaching a broader global consensus about emissions reduction targets in mind when answering the first wtp question. respondents who said 'no' to the first wtp question were followed up with a second wtp question (hereafter called the 'second wtp question') in which they were asked whether they would be willing to pay the offered bid amount if global co-operation could be achieved.
Where does the strength of role-play exercise lie?
the strength of the exercise lay in the ability to go beyond taking a snap-shot of how people think they would react by encouraging a more nuanced understanding of the problem
What is the major weakness associated with the design of role-play exercise?
the first is the limited ability to capture the impact of responding to the forecast
Why is participatory research advocated?
participatory research is advocated because of its ability to include all groups including the illiterate (chambers 1994; hagmann
the role-play exercise also provides lessons about methodology. although participatory research is not new, there do not seem to be many examples of role-play exercises. assessing the strengths and weaknesses of this approach enables it to be expanded on and developed for future research. the strength of the exercise lay in the ability to go beyond taking a snap-shot of how people think they would react by encouraging a more nuanced understanding of the problem. this was achieved by providing more background to the problem and the local context before participants responded to questions. it also allowed for group interaction, which is something that happens when decisions are made in the village but may not be encapsulated in an individual interview. there are a number of weaknesses associated with the design of the role-play exercise. the first is the limited ability to capture the impact of responding to the forecast. although participants were encouraged to think about the previous year's forecast and how the outcome would affect them when making decisions in the following year, no mechanisms were in place to enforce them to realize and record the impact. the final round anticipated this and asked the question of how a false forecast would impact on households. the farmers responded by saying that if the forecast were different to the outcome they would have poor yields and would not trust the forecast, in particular the radio forecast, in the future. they said that inputs would have been wasted. only a handful of participants linked the loss of crops to having 'nothing to eat'. taking it beyond these obvious responses to whether a false forecast would make farmers more vulnerable or not, and whether a correct forecast would improve pathways of sustainable livelihoods, requires further probing of the issue, and perhaps the impact will only be seen when the forecasts are disseminated and reach these groups. another aspect that requires caution is related to both the strength and weakness of participatory research. as was seen with the 'learning over the years', people's perceptions of forecasts changed because of the role-play exercise. this could lead to further enquiries and better awareness of the forecast or could result in disappointment if the research is not followed up. another comment on participatory research comes from the observation that it was the more educated farmer groups who were prepared to draw the initial diagrams of their village and resources and the illiterate ones who refrained. participatory research is advocated because of its ability to include all groups including the illiterate (chambers 1994; hagmann
What advances will be importnant in the future?
recent advances in data assimilation open up the possibility that palaeodata could be used to constrain the parameters of climate models and thereby improve reliability and realism, and assign quantitative uncertainties, in future climate prediction
What approch must be taken to assimilation?
systematic approaches to data assimilation have been developed for present day climate and earth system model components with reduced spatiotemporal resolution, simplified process representations, or reduced sets of parameters
Whats important in assimalation?
a rigorous method to combine models and palaeodata should help to provide a better understanding of the interactions between different components of the climate system, and establish a tighter link between palaeoclimate observation and earth system modeling
finally, recent advances in data assimilation open up the possibility that palaeodata could be used to constrain the parameters of climate models and thereby improve reliability and realism, and assign quantitative uncertainties, in future climate prediction. systematic approaches to data assimilation have been developed for present day climate and earth system model components with reduced spatiotemporal resolution, simplified process representations, or reduced sets of parameters (e.g. marotzke et al. 1999 rayner et al. 2005 ). a system to apply these approaches to climate modelling has been demonstrated (kaminski et al. 2007 ), and a further natural development of this system would allow fully coupled, dynamic climate system models to be constrained with palaeoclimate reconstructions using this variational approach. a rigorous method to combine models and palaeodata should help to provide a better understanding of the interactions between different components of the climate system, and establish a tighter link between palaeoclimate observation and earth system modeling.
What carried out the analysis?
the analysis was carried out with eqs 5.7 (bentler, 1995) using the maximum likelihood estimation method
What did the results indicate?
results indicated that the scale showed a poor model fit indicating that the factorial structure should be revised kh 2 (9) 88.35, p 0.001, cfi .83; nnfi .71; rmsea .19 (90% ci .15 - .22); srmsr .09
What correlations were drawn?
perceptions of ability in sport were positively correlated with self-esteem and negatively correlated with reported physical symptoms
general self-esteem was negatively correlated with contingent self-esteem, emotional/physical exhaustion, and physical symptoms. perceptions of ability in sport were positively correlated with self-esteem and negatively correlated with reported physical symptoms. these associations provide some indication of the concurrent and convergent validity for the mental and physical well-being/ill-being scales utilized in the present work. in line with previous research (e.g., newton et al., 2000), the two perceived overriding dimensions of perceptions of the motivational climate were significantly and negatively correlated. perceptions of an ego-involving climate were significantly and positively correlated with contingent self-esteem, emotional/physical exhaustion, and physical symptoms. in contrast, perceptions of a sport environment emphasizing task goals were significantly and positively related to perceived competence, self-esteem, and negatively correlated with self-reported physical symptoms. since this was a newly developed scale, confirmatory factor analyses (cfa) was used to examine the adequacy of the proposed a priori one-factor structure underlying the contingent self-worth in sport scale. the analysis was carried out with eqs 5.7 (bentler, 1995) using the maximum likelihood estimation method. the fit of the measurement model was examined using various indices of fit provided by eqs. results indicated that the scale showed a poor model fit indicating that the factorial structure should be revised kh 2 (9) 88.35, p 0.001, cfi .83; nnfi .71; rmsea .19 (90% ci .15 - .22); srmsr .09. examination of the modification indices provided by eqs (lagrange multiplier
Ho manys importants implications does the  carbon dioxide has?
has at least three important implications
What  the resilience of climate change implies?
the resilience of climate change implies that delays in action have serious repercussions for our ability to manage the problem
What backloading implies?
backloading implies that the full, cumulative effects of our current emissions will not be realised for some time in the future
the fact that carbon dioxide is a long-lived greenhouse gas has at least three important implications. the first is that climate change is a resilient phenomenon. given that currently it does not seem practical to remove large quantities of carbon dioxide from the upper atmosphere, or to moderate its climatic effects, the upward trend in atmospheric concentration is not easily reversible. hence, a goal of stabilising and then reducing carbon dioxide concentrations requires advance planning. second, climate change impacts are seriously backloaded the climate change that the earth is currently experiencing is primarily the result of emissions from some time in the past, rather than current emissions. as an illustration, it is widely accepted that by 2000 we had already committed ourselves to a rise of at least 0.5 and perhaps more than 1 degree celsius over the then-observed rise of 0.6degc.22 third, backloading implies that the full, cumulative effects of our current emissions will not be realised for some time in the future. so, climate change is a substantially deferred phenomenon. temporal dispersion creates a number of problems. first, as is widely noted, the resilience of climate change implies that delays in action have serious repercussions for our ability to manage the problem. second, backloading implies that climate change poses serious epistemic difficulties, especially for normal political actors. for one thing, backloading makes it hard to grasp the connection between causes and effects, and this may undermine the motivation to act;23 for another, it implies that by the time we realise that things are bad, we will already be committed to much more change, so it undermines the ability to respond. third, the deferral effect calls into question the ability of standard institutions to deal with the problem. for one thing, democratic political institutions have relatively short time horizons - the next election cycle, a stephen m. gardiner
What do national and international public actors have at their disposal?
policies and instruments that can address investor-specific needs, align public and private interests, and enable scaled-up low-carbon and climate-resilient investment
What does landscape 2013 highlight?
landscape 2013 highlights that, providing the measures adopted properly identify investment barriers, and adequately address the different risk appetites of investors, there is no single right way to deliver public resources
What's an example of something a public actor can do?
pay for public goods and capital investments with associated costs and risks that private actors are unwilling or unable to bear,49 such as knowledge building programs
national and international public actors have at their disposal a substantial tool box of policies and instruments that can address investor-specific needs, align public and private interests, and enable scaled-up low-carbon and climate-resilient investment. landscape 2013 highlights that, providing the measures adopted properly identify investment barriers, and adequately address the different risk appetites of investors, there is no single right way to deliver public resources. for example, public actors can do the following * pay for incremental investment costs or assume significant financial risk through equity investments at below-market returns, providing grants, concessional loans and guarantees, and through subsidizing risk insurance; * pay for public goods and capital investments with associated costs and risks that private actors are unwilling or unable to bear,49 such as knowledge building programs; and * redirect resources through policies that alter the balance of costs and returns between carbon and low-carbon investments, including through feed-in tariffs, subsidies, carbon taxes, cap and trade systems.
The sensitivity to what process is essential for quantifying the climate?
the sensitivity of respiratory processes to temperature is central for quantifying the climate
Is Q10 dependent on mean annual temps?
q10 is independent of mean annual temperature
Is there a standard or variable relations between photosynthesis and respiration among the sites?
the strong relation between photosynthesis and respiration, by contrast, is highly variable among sites
the respiratory release of carbon dioxide (co2) from the land surface is a major flux in the global carbon cycle, antipodal to photosynthetic co2 uptake. understanding the sensitivity of respiratory processes to temperature is central for quantifying the climate - carbon cycle feedback. we approximated the sensitivity of terrestrial ecosystem respiration to air temperature q10) across 60 fluxnet sites with the use of a methodology that circumvents confounding effects. contrary to previous findings, our results suggest that q10 is independent of mean annual temperature, does not differ among biomes, and is confined to values around 1.4 t 0.1. the strong relation between photosynthesis and respiration, by contrast, is highly variable among sites. the results may partly explain a less pronounced climate - carbon cycle feedback than suggested by current carbon cycle climate models.
What does the acronym THEMIS stand for?
by the thermal emission imaging system (themis
If the bed sediment is resistant to aeolian erosion, what does this indicate?
the resistance of this bed sediment to aeolian erosion indicates that it is either gravelly or partially lithified
What process has differentially stripped fine-grained floodplain sediment?
fine-grained floodplain sediment that overlay and/ or laterally bounded the channel deposits has been differentially stripped, presumably by aeolian deflation
(figure 1b). in figure 1b, a well-defined loop with distinct, successive scroll-bar ridges records the progressive growth of the meander, and eventually its cutoff, identical to that seen on terrestrial floodplains. the lateral shifting was accompanied by aggradation, as suggested by the apparent rise in the exposed surface with outward migration of the bend, and by the crosscutting relationship where the channel cuts off the bend. other ridges with lineations show similar, but less dramatic evidence for bend migration. the digitate periphery in detail is scarp-like, where individual ridge flanks and termini exhibit alternating steep slopes and ledges forming up to on order of a dozen steps, each  10 m high (figure 1c). these outcrop exposures are light-toned in the visible light images, and alternatively dark in daytime and bright in nighttime thermal infrared (ir) images acquired by the thermal emission imaging system (themis), indicating that this material has a relatively high thermal inertia (see details of themis ir image interpretation in christensen et al. 2003]). taken together, the ability to support steep slopes and the relatively high thermal inertia, strongly imply that here are clean exposures of at least partially indurated, if not lithified, sediment. we concur with malin and edgett [2003] that this fanshaped outcrop is an exhumed and differentially eroded fluvial delta or fluvial fan. the exhumation and differential erosion has exposed channel floor sediment that now forms the individual ridges. the resistance of this bed sediment to aeolian erosion indicates that it is either gravelly or partially lithified. fine-grained floodplain sediment that overlay and/ or laterally bounded the channel deposits has been differentially stripped, presumably by aeolian deflation. most of these inter-channel depressions are now thinly mantled with aeolian sediment. the individual sedimentary layers exposed along the steeper delta margin (figure 1c) may be interchannel overbank deposits, or they may be distal delta facies (foreset or bottomset beds) or lake deposits buried by the advancing delta. although definitive exposures are lacking, we infer from the increasing number and decreasing width of channels approaching the distal edge of the delta that transport occurred through a distributary branching pattern of channels. the overall digitate, or ''bird's foot,'' pattern places this delta among terrestrial deltas whose shapes are sediment dominated (as opposed to wave or tide dominated) orton and reading 1993]. this is not surprising, as mars has no significant tides and water bodies there may have often been ice covered [e.g., squyres and kasting 1994].
What cultural worldviews can affect how information is interpreted?
beliefs about how nature works, what constitutes a 'good' and fair society, what roles governments and individuals play respectively in bringing about such a society and how humans should interact with nature, etc
Socio-political context and the connection between management and science play an important role in what?
socio-political context and the connection between management and science play an important role in risk perception
What influence does cultural worldviews have on climate change?
these worldviews influence people's uptake, understanding, interpretation of and response to climate change information
this contextualization of climate change among other issues also exists in developing countries. for example, among biosphere reserve managers climate change threats were found to be less than illegal activities such as poaching.87these studies highlight how individuals' perceptions about climate change are linked to equity, development, and perceived economic power, where socio-political context and the connection between management and science play an important role in risk perception. recent experimental research combining cultural theory and psychometric risk perception research in the united states puts these findings into a broader context: people are not 'blank slates' receiving information about risks (such as climate change) and interpreting them at face value. rather, such information is always and inevitably filtered through preexisting cultural worldviews (beliefs about how nature works, what constitutes a 'good' and fair society, what roles governments and individuals play respectively in bringing about such a society and how humans should interact with nature, etc.). these worldviews influence people's uptake, understanding, interpretation of and response to climate change information.88-92
What our review suggests?
suggests that recent climate change has had significant impacts on biogeochemical cycling throughout the qinghai-tibetan plateau
How human activities can impact the climate change?
human activities such as grazing and changes in land cover have modified and sometimes amplified these impacts
What figure 5 summarizes?
figure 5 summarizes the results of these changes to the best of our current knowledge
our review suggests that recent climate change has had significant impacts on biogeochemical cycling throughout the qinghai-tibetan plateau, and that human activities such as grazing and changes in land cover have modified and sometimes amplified these impacts. figure 5 summarizes the results of these changes to the best of our current knowledge. for the carbon cycle, the warmer and wetter climate has increased npp and soil respiration (tan et al. 2010; zhuang et al. 2010), but the plateau has become an increasingly weak carbon sink, with significant decreases in both soc and sic due to increased co2 emission (wang et al. 2008). if the plant species on the plateau can be confirmed to produce
What implies land movement for the works?
the implementation of housing developments implies land movement for the works
What also reduces the water infiltration capacity into the soil?
urbanisation also reduces the water infiltration capacity into the soil
What serves as a support medium for the growth of rooted plants of larger dimensions?
the settled material also serves as a support medium for the growth of rooted plants of larger dimensions (macrophytes) near the shores
silting the implementation of housing developments implies land movement for the works. urbanisation also reduces the water infiltration capacity into the soil. the soil particles tend to be transported to the lower parts of the catchment area until they reach the lake or reservoir. in these water bodies, they tend to settle, owing to the low horizontal velocities and turbulence. the sedimentation of the soil particles causes silting and reduces the 136 to wastewater characteristics, treatment and disposal net volume of the water body. the settled material also serves as a support medium for the growth of rooted plants of larger dimensions (macrophytes) near the shores. in spite of some ecological advantages (e.g. physical retention of pollutants, reduction of sediment resuspension, refuge for fishes and macroinvertebrates), these plants cause an evident deterioration in the visual aspect of the water body.
What are the properties of these islands on terms of culture and population ?
although these islands are culturally heterogeneous and diverse, they share common features that endanger them. generally, they have high population densities concentrated in limited land areas, and the largest settlements are typically located no further than 1-2 km from the coast
What will be the effect of sea-level rise ?
indeed a sea-level rise of between 50 cm and one metre could convert many islands to sandbars and substantially reduce remaining drylands on even the larger and more heavily populated islands
What are the factors that dominate small island state economies ?
a few activities--agriculture, fisheries, tourism, and international transport--typically dominate small island state economies. as a result they are highly sensitive to global market forces beyond their control. the survival of many islands also depends heavily upon remittances from expatriate nationals and development funds from the international donor community
although these islands are culturally heterogeneous and diverse, they share common features that endanger them. generally, they have high population densities concentrated in limited land areas, and the largest settlements are typically located no further than 1-2 km from the coast. in nearly all the states, large settlements are found on beaches or sand terraces. because populations are often concentrated in the few urban centers where most infrastructure is located, sea-level rise could produce widespread disruption to economic and social activities. indeed a sea-level rise of between 50 cm and one metre could convert many islands to sandbars and substantially reduce remaining drylands on even the larger and more heavily populated islands. table 2 lists the small island states that fall into this category. beyond the question of direct inundation resulting from sea-level rise is the vulnerable nature of small island economies. a few activities--agriculture, fisheries, tourism, and international transport--typically dominate small island state economies. as a result they are highly sensitive to global market forces beyond their control. the survival of many islands also depends heavily upon remittances from expatriate nationals and development funds from the international donor community. since primary production plays a large role in the economies, disruptions to agricultural support systems from climate change is likely to produce widespread disruption and economic loss. meanwhile, island populations are growing at more than 3% per year, and populations are migrating to island cities or emigrating in search of work (pernetta 1992). the physical circumstances of island states leave them highly vulnerable to potential climateinduced changes. much of the critical infrastructure and economic activities are located close to coastal areas, many of which are at or close to current sea level. coastal erosion, saline intrusion, and sea flooding are already serious problems. potable water supplies are typically in short supply. of particular concern is whether climate change will lead to an increase in the frequency and severity of storms that may be experienced by these island states, particularly the effects of hurricanes and typhoons. adding to the concern over vulnerability is the cumulative and interacting presence of nonclimate related natural disasters, rapidly growing populations, and few possibilities for adaptation.
What other migration time changes are expected?
these are likely to include changes in migration times for stocks undertaking annual movements from their over-wintering grounds to their summer feeding and spawning areas
Even with the potential disappearance of some of the southern stocks, what should happen to the overall production of Atlantic cod?
the overall production of atlantic cod should, therefore, increase, even with the potential disappearance of some of the southern stocks
What was observed about spawning locations during the warming of the 1920s and 1930s?
spawning locations should extend northwards, as was observed during the warming of the 1920s and 1930s
in addition to the possible disappearance and decline in the southern stocks, an increased abundance of the northern stocks, and a northward range extension, we might also expect other changes. these are likely to include changes in migration times for stocks undertaking annual movements from their over-wintering grounds to their summer feeding and spawning areas. the feeding period would be extended since cod would be expected to arrive earlier to their summer feeding grounds and leave later. for example, for the southern gulf of st. lawrence stock, the migration onto the summer grounds is triggered by the disappearance of sea ice sinclair and currie, 1994 ). under future warming, less ice should mean an earlier migration into the southern gulf from the over-wintering area in the laurentian channel. in areas where the seasonal ice cover will disappear altogether, there might not be a need to migrate at all. this would depend on sufficient winter temperatures for gonadal growth and sufficient prey as discussed above. for regions where mean bottom temperature does not exceed 12 c, cod production usually increases with temperature dutil and brander, 2003 ). coupled with anticipated distributions of the northward extensions, the overall production of atlantic cod should, therefore, increase, even with the potential disappearance of some of the southern stocks. also, i might have overestimated the negative effect on those southern stocks, since the warming is generally estimated to be less for the southern regions than the maximum 4 c scenario i used figure 5 ). in addition, warming in northern regions could exceed 4 c, which would lead to even higher production rates. the increase in production would be caused by improved growth rates, better condition fish, and higher recruitment. also, since mortality is generally linked to growth rates, survival of young fish should increase with the higher growth rates if predator e prey relationships remain unchanged. spawning locations should extend northwards, as was observed during the warming of the 1920s and 1930s. this pattern was observed in iceland where spawning expanded to the northern side of the island where previously it was primarily limited to the south coast vilhja'lmsson, 1997 ). also, along the coast of norway, proportional spawning increased in the north and decreased in the south during the same period sundby and nakken, 2005 ). with higher temperatures, gonadal development is quicker, resulting in earlier spawning. with the faster growth rates, the age of maturity is likely to decrease, meaning that more of the population will be sexually mature, which in turn should add to the increased production.
What can elevate ozone on the western US surface to levels that are harmful to health?
evidence suggests deep stratospheric intrusions can elevate western us surface ozone to unhealthy levels during spring. these intrusions can be classified as 'exceptional events', which are not counted towards non-attainment determinations
evidence suggests deep stratospheric intrusions can elevate western us surface ozone to unhealthy levels during spring. these intrusions can be classified as 'exceptional events', which are not counted towards non-attainment determinations. understanding the factors driving the year-to-year variability of these intrusions is thus relevant for effective implementation of the us ozone air quality standard. here we use observations and model simulations to link these events to modes of climate variability. we show more frequent late spring stratospheric intrusions when the polar jet meanders towards the western united states, such as occurs following strong la nin~a winters (nin~o3.4 o  1.0  c). while el nin~o leads to enhancements of upper tropospheric ozone, we find this influence does not reach surface air. fewer and weaker intrusion events follow in the two springs after the 1991 volcanic eruption of mt. pinatubo. the linkage between la nin~a and western us stratospheric intrusions can be exploited to provide a few months of lead time during which preparations could be made to deploy targeted measurements aimed at identifying these exceptional events.
What are the stressors faced by southern Africa?
southern africa is a region facing multiple stressors, including chronic, recurrent food insecurity and persistent threats of famine
Describe the actual and potential roles played by climate information in reducing food insecurity in southern Africa ?
the present study considers the actual and potential roles played by climate information in reducing food insecurity in southern africa from 2 perspectives. the first relates to improved understanding of the contextual environment in which end users operate and use information. users, including farmers, usually operate in an environment of considerable uncertainty, reacting to and coping with multiple stressors whose impacts are not always clear or predictable. the second perspective relates to improving the current design and variety of mechanisms (e.g. climate outlook forums) for the dissemination and uptake of climate information
How is the climate information used?
climate information, it is argued, used in isolation (e.g. in 'stand alone' climate outlook forums) and undertaken in a traditional, linear fashion, where information is moved from producer to user, is divorced from the broader, complex social context in which such information is embedded
southern africa is a region facing multiple stressors, including chronic, recurrent food insecurity and persistent threats of famine. climate information, including seasonal climate forecasts, has been heralded as a promising tool for early-warning systems and agricultural risk management in southern africa. nevertheless, there is concern that climate information, for example climate forecasts, are not realizing their potential value in the region. the present study considers the actual and potential roles played by climate information in reducing food insecurity in southern africa from 2 perspectives. the first relates to improved understanding of the contextual environment in which end users operate and use information. users, including farmers, usually operate in an environment of considerable uncertainty, reacting to and coping with multiple stressors whose impacts are not always clear or predictable. the second perspective relates to improving the current design and variety of mechanisms (e.g. climate outlook forums) for the dissemination and uptake of climate information. the first relates to improved understanding of the contextual environment in which end users operate and use information. users, including farmers, usually operate in an environment of considerable uncertainty, reacting to and coping with multiple stressors whose impacts are not always clear or predictable. the second perspective relates to improving the current design and variety of mechanisms (e.g. climate outlook forums) for the dissemination and uptake of climate information. climate information, it is argued, used in isolation (e.g. in 'stand alone' climate outlook forums) and undertaken in a traditional, linear fashion, where information is moved from producer to user, is divorced from the broader, complex social context in which such information is embedded. this current articulation of climate information flow represents an ineffective means of dealing with climate variability and food security. alternative modes of interaction (e.g. using existing platforms to 'piggyback' information or seeking appropriate 'boundary organisations') should be found to sustainably manage climate risks in the region. key words: climate information * food security * mainstreaming climate information * sustainable development
What is the purpose of Element 1 in the Country Assistance Strategy?
so that this summary information would be readily available. in addition, the task manager should be able to draw upon a very simple country-profile of climate vulnerability, part of the climate risk management knowledge base, which also contains links to more detailed information
What factor does Element 2 assess?
climate risks to the project the extent to which the project contains components that may be vulnerable to climate risks
What does Element 3 determine?
the extent to which the project may have consequences for the vulnerability of external natural and human systems
element 1: the climate risks facing the country/region ideally, as discussed above, some information about natural hazards facing a country would be included in the country assistance strategy, so that this summary information would be readily available. in addition, the task manager should be able to draw upon a very simple country-profile of climate vulnerability, part of the climate risk management knowledge base, which also contains links to more detailed information. if such pre-prepared information is lacking, task managers and/or other team members that have worked in a particular country before will likely have a good first sense of risks involved. note that in most cases, vulnerability to current climate risks is a useful proxy indicator for vulnerability to climate change. element 2: climate risks to the project the extent to which the project contains components that may be vulnerable to climate risks element 3: external climate risks affected by the project the extent to which the project may have consequences for the vulnerability of external natural and human systems. in general, it is likely to be intuitively obvious whether a project could be directly affected by the climate risks facing the region/country, but less straightforward to assess effects on external risks. some considerations for each of the four categories arise as follows category 1 (high risk) direct risk: large components of the project are subject to the climate risks facing the country/region. examples include infrastructure and agriculture projects located in floodor drought-prone areas, and water management projects, particularly when there is water scarcity already or when there is a significant or unsustainable trend in the demand for or supply of water. effect on external risk: project could have a strong effect on the climate risks facing the country/region. examples infrastructure projects that trigger development in dangerous areas, even when the infrastructure itself may not be at risk. category 2 (moderate or partial risk): direct risk: some elements of the project are subject to direct risks, but the risk to the project as a whole is limited or only indirect. examples include education and health projects that include the construction of schools or hospitals in risky areas. effect on indirect or secondary risk: the project may have indirect effects on the vulnerability of the country. for instance, an agricultural market reform project that removes government subsidies on certain crops (and would be classified category 3 in terms of climate risks to the project itself) can lead farmers to switch to crops that could make them more vulnerable to climate variability and change.
Who is the George Holmes University Distinguished Professor of Management in the Department of Management and Gallup Leadership Institute, University of Nebraska-Lincoln?
fred luthans is the george holmes university distinguished professor of management in the department of management and gallup leadership institute, university of nebraska-lincoln
What does Fred Luthans current research revolve around?
his current research revolves around positive organizational behavior and psychological capital
Who is the Clifton Chair in Leadership at the College of Business Administration at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln?
bruce j. avolio is the clifton chair in leadership at the college of business administration at the university of nebraska-lincoln
fred luthans is the george holmes university distinguished professor of management in the department of management and gallup leadership institute, university of nebraska-lincoln. a past president of the academy of management and editor of three journals, his current research revolves around positive organizational behavior and psychological capital. steven m. norman is an assistant professor of management at mesa state college. he received his ph.d. at the gallup leadership institute, university of nebraska-lincoln. his current research is concerned with psychological capital and authentic leadership. bruce j. avolio is the clifton chair in leadership at the college of business administration at the university of nebraska-lincoln. he is also director of the gallup leadership institute, co-director of the unl and gallup mba/ma program in executive leadership, and director of the ph.d. program with a specialization in leadership in the college of business administration at unl. james b. avey is an assistant professor of management at central washington university. he received his ph.d. at the gallup leadership institute, university of nebraska-lincoln. his current research revolves around psychological capital, psychological ownership, and authentic leadership.
In which level of UK energy and climate change policies is convergence most evident?
in uk energy and climate change policies it is at a discursive level - with the emergence of key storylines - that convergence is most evident, as we detail below
How can new storylines stimulate policy change?
new storylines can stimulate policy change through the re-ordering of meaning (hajer 1995a: 56; see also thompson and rayner 1998: 325), enabling new definitions of the problem at hand and its concomitant solutions (bulkeley 2000
For Hajer, around what do discourse coalitions unite?
for hajer, discourse coalitions unite around "shared terms and concepts through which meaning is assigned to social and physical processes and the nature of the policy problem under consideration is constructed" (hajer 1996: 247
a number of policy theories based on the fluidity of policy change and loose policy networks are therefore helpful in furthering our understanding of the ability of environmental issues to destabilise and open up traditional policy sectors. however, they fail adequately to capture the dynamics of policy convergence, based as they are on the notion of change taking place within relatively bounded policy arenas and in response to short-lived solvable policy problems. the concept of a discourse coalition, brought into familiar use by maarten hajer (1995), is probably most relevant for our analysis because of its dual emphasis on understanding how fluid networks respond rapidly to policy shifts, and the role of narratives or storylines in creating opportunities for change. in uk energy and climate change policies it is at a discursive level - with the emergence of key storylines - that convergence is most evident, as we detail below. for hajer, discourse coalitions unite around "shared terms and concepts through which meaning is assigned to social and physical processes and the nature of the policy problem under consideration is constructed" (hajer 1996: 247). these 'shared terms and concepts', or 'storylines' provide a way of uniting different elements of physical and social realities into specific, closed problems and giving them meaning (hajer 1995a: 56). in this way, storylines structure the overall terms of debate, and set limits on what practices and solutions are deemed to be suitable and reasonable. most significantly for our 7 7 argument, new storylines can stimulate policy change through the re-ordering of meaning (hajer 1995a: 56; see also thompson and rayner 1998: 325), enabling new definitions of the problem at hand and its concomitant solutions (bulkeley 2000).
What is this review aiming for?
this review aims to distil a set of characteristics of resilient systems based on an analytical review of resilience-related literature. given the cross-cutting and cross-sectoral nature of climate change vulnerability, impacts and adaptation, the literature reviewed is necessarily limited. it focuses particularly on literature from social science-ecology interface, and aims to capture the breadth of literature in particular related to society, ecology and socio-ecological systems
What is one reason this review is aiming for these goals?
this is because first, a substantial number of theorists (cited through the sections to follow) who discuss resilience as a way of engaging with climate change impacts (the primary purpose of this paper) operate in these contexts. second, within the social sciences (the epistemological context of this paper) most discussions on resilience have been routed in social and ecological systems and have moved towards operating in the context of the coupled socio-ecological systems (ses) (moser 2008). third, a vast majority of the world population across rural, urban and peri-urban areas most vulnerable to climate change impacts and disasters, directly relies on ecological services for livelihoods and wellbeing (through, for instance, a reliance on agriculture) (iset 2008). engaging with the social and ecological dimensions and the nature of their interaction therefore provides a central axis for analysing 'resilience' in the context of climate change. through the discussion in section 1.2, the authors acknowledge that a number of disciplines explore the concept of resilience but this review limits itself to papers that largely focus on social, ecological and socio-ecological systems
What were the steps taken in the 'systematic review process' ?
the methodology undertaken was based on a 'systematic review process' (gasten 2010). first, a relevant objective for the review was developed through wide consultation with colleagues engaged in research on climate change, disasters and resilience (the intended users of this article). second, key search terms (e.g. 'resilience', 'climate change resilience', 'social resilience', 'disaster resilience', 'socio-ecological systems') were consistently applied in academic journal databases/indexes (e.g. jstor, greenfile, web of science) to ensure a comprehensive pool of literature was obtained. third, once this initial pool was secured, exponential discriminative snowball sampling was employed to help refine resources being collected (denzin 2005). exclusion criterion were developed and papers focussing on resilience in the context of society, ecology, sess, climate change and disasters were included due to the reasons mentioned earlier. a criterion for analysis was developed to review each paper in a systematic manner. the criteria focused on garnering the definition of resilience employed or developed by the paper
this review aims to distil a set of characteristics of resilient systems based on an analytical review of resilience-related literature. given the cross-cutting and cross-sectoral nature of climate change vulnerability, impacts and adaptation, the literature reviewed is necessarily limited. it focuses particularly on literature from social science-ecology interface, and aims to capture the breadth of literature in particular related to society, ecology and socio-ecological systems. this is because first, a substantial number of theorists (cited through the sections to follow) who discuss resilience as a way of engaging with climate change impacts (the primary purpose of this paper) operate in these contexts. second, within the social sciences (the epistemological context of this paper) most discussions on resilience have been routed in social and ecological systems and have moved towards operating in the context of the coupled socio-ecological systems (ses) (moser 2008). third, a vast majority of the world population across rural, urban and peri-urban areas most vulnerable to climate change impacts and disasters, directly relies on ecological services for livelihoods and wellbeing (through, for instance, a reliance on agriculture) (iset 2008). engaging with the social and ecological dimensions and the nature of their interaction therefore provides a central axis for analysing 'resilience' in the context of climate change. through the discussion in section 1.2, the authors acknowledge that a number of disciplines explore the concept of resilience but this review limits itself to papers that largely focus on social, ecological and socio-ecological systems. the methodology undertaken was based on a 'systematic review process' (gasten 2010). first, a relevant objective for the review was developed through wide consultation with colleagues engaged in research on climate change, disasters and resilience (the intended users of this article). second, key search terms (e.g. 'resilience', 'climate change resilience', 'social resilience', 'disaster resilience', 'socio-ecological systems') were consistently applied in academic journal databases/indexes (e.g. jstor, greenfile, web of science) to ensure a comprehensive pool of literature was obtained. third, once this initial pool was secured, exponential discriminative snowball sampling was employed to help refine resources being collected (denzin 2005). exclusion criterion were developed and papers focussing on resilience in the context of society, ecology, sess, climate change and disasters were included due to the reasons mentioned earlier. a criterion for analysis was developed to review each paper in a systematic manner. the criteria focused on garnering the definition of resilience employed or developed by the paper
How does continuous climate change affect?
continued climate change, as projected by climate models, would impact all areas of the country and nearly every sector of the canadian economy. although a gradual increase in temperature could bring some benefits for canada (e.g., longer growing seasons and fewer deaths from extreme cold), it would also present challenges
What is the impact of natural disasters?
experience indicates that natural disasters, such as drought, flooding and severe storms, often exceed our ability to cope, resulting in significant social and economic impacts
continued climate change, as projected by climate models, would impact all areas of the country and nearly every sector of the canadian economy. although a gradual increase in temperature could bring some benefits for canada (e.g., longer growing seasons and fewer deaths from extreme cold), it would also present challenges. for example, higher temperatures could increase damage from disturbances, such as forest fires and pests (figure 7), and increase heat-related morbidity and mortality. an increase in the frequency and/or intensity of extreme climate events would have the most serious negative impacts. experience indicates that natural disasters, such as drought, flooding and severe storms, often exceed our ability to cope, resulting in significant social and economic impacts.
how would one finance these activities on climate change?
oda
WHAT IS ODA FOCUSED ON?
progress towards the mdgs will artificially blow up the input side while creating little benefits in terms of the output indicators for the different goals and targets
WHAT TYPE OF COUNTRIES IS THIS TALKING TO AND REFERRING TO?
developing countries
success in these activities would be crucial in showing developing countries that climate policy is not a ploy to stop them from catching up with the industrialized world. if one sees development in a broader sense as helping the world to tackle difficult long-term challenges, then the use of development assistance would be justified. but pretending that this assistance primarily aims at and yields poverty reduction would be far from the reality. using oda to finance these activities while pretending that oda is focused on progress towards the mdgs will artificially blow up the input side while creating little benefits in terms of the output indicators for the different goals and targets. this will make aid appear even less effective than
What are considered a concern for human health?
higher overnight temperatures during heat waves
what helps the human health concern decrease?
cooler temperatures at night offer much-needed relief from the heat of the day
what is a negative impact of tempuratures?
an increase in background ground-level ozone concentrations, and increase the occurrence of smog episodes
higher overnight temperatures during heat waves are also a concern for human health, as cooler temperatures at night offer much-needed relief from the heat of the day. with respect to beneficial impacts, a decrease in extreme cold events during the winter would decrease cold-weather mortality, especially among the homeless. respiratory disorders, such as asthma, would be affected by changes in average and peak air pollution levels. higher temperatures could lead to an increase in background ground-level ozone concentrations, and increase the occurrence of smog episodes. air pollution would also be affected by an increase in airborne particulates, resulting from more frequent and intense forest fires. airborne particulates have been shown to cause nasal, throat, respiratory and eye problems. another concern is the potential impact of higher temperatures and heavier rainfall events on waterborne diseases. heavy rainfall and associated flooding can flush bacteria, sewage, fertilizers and other organic wastes into waterways and aquifers. a significant number of waterborne disease outbreaks across north america, including the e. coli outbreak in walkerton, ontario in 2000, were preceded by extreme precipitation events. higher
What are the consequences of continued warming?
continued warming will have important consequences for social and natural systems, but these consequences will not be felt uniformly across the planet [1,3,6
Where is the study focused?
our study is focused on california's san francisco estuarywatershed (sfew), which includes san francisco bay, the sacramento-san joaquin delta (delta) and the sacramento and san joaquin river drainages (fig. 1
What is the importance of the SEFW?
the sfew has social and economic significance as the source of runoff that provides drinking water to 25 million people and irrigation water to a million hectares of farmland producing crops valued at $36 billion per year it also has large ecological significance because the river system is habitat for native fishes including pacific salmon and steelhead trout
simulations with global climate models (gcms) under a plausible range of greenhouse gas emissions scenarios all project substantial warming through the 21stcentury continued warming will have important consequences for social and natural systems, but these consequences will not be felt uniformly across the planet [1,3,6]. therefore, strategies for adaptation to climate change require quantitative projections of how altered global patterns of temperature, precipitation and sea level will cascade to regional and local scales. we illustrate here one approach for developing quantitative projections by linking models of processes computed at sequentially smaller scales, from global to regional to local. our study is focused on california's san francisco estuarywatershed (sfew), which includes san francisco bay, the sacramento-san joaquin delta (delta) and the sacramento and san joaquin river drainages (fig. 1). the sfew has social and economic significance as the source of runoff that provides drinking water to 25 million people and irrigation water to a million hectares of farmland producing crops valued at $36 billion per year it also has large ecological significance because the river system is habitat for native fishes including pacific salmon and steelhead trout. san francisco bay is the largest estuary on the us west coast, providing habitat for endemic species (e.g. delta smelt, salt marsh harvest mouse) and marine species supporting fisheries (e.g. english sole, dungeness crab). fourteen species of migratory or delta-resident fishes are imperiled, and their population declines motivate ambitious and costly programs of environmental conservation and habitat rehabilitation on the shores of this estuary, 270,000 people and $62 billion of development are at risk of flooding as sea level continues to rise regional planning and conflicts of resource allocation in the sfew are already great challenges. these challenges are likely to grow as the regional effects of global climate change and other changes accumulate through this century. here we develop integrated scenarios of the future sfew by projecting a suite of environmental responses to climate change and assessing their implications for sustainability of native biota, water supplies, and risks of coastal flooding.
What happens in dissimilation?
the energy stored in chemical form in the organic compounds (substrate) is released and converted in the assimilation in cellular material
What is net growth the result of?
the balance between the anabolism (positive) and the catabolism (negative
What are the enzymes inside the cell known as?
these are called intracellular enzymes or endoenzym
assimilation or anabolism reactions that lead to the formation of cellular material (growth), using the energy released in the dissimilation. inasimplifiedway,theorganismsgrowandreproducethemselvesattheexpense of the energy released in the dissimilation. in dissimilation, the energy stored in chemical form in the organic compounds (substrate) is released and converted in the assimilation in cellular material. the net growth is the result of the balance between the anabolism (positive) and the catabolism (negative). in both categories, the chemical transformations occur in a sequence of diverse and intricate intermediate reactions, each catalysed by a specific type of enzyme. most of the enzymes are located inside the cell: these are called intracellular enzymes or endoenzymes however, some enzymes are released in the external medium and are designated as extracellular enzymes or exoenzymes their importance is associated with the fact that they lead to hydrolysis reactions outside the cell, in the liquid medium, converting large and complex substrate molecules into smaller and simpler molecules, which can then pass through the cell membrane to become available for consumption by the cell. 302 basic principles of wastewater treatment
School climate research has permeated what?
school climate research has permeated literature in education and psychology and offered a number of insights into the capacity of schools to shape student learning, decrease delinquent behaviors, and improve psychological well-being
Several characteristics that can be gleaned from an extensive review of the literature are?
first, school climate is multidimensional. the inclusion of multiple domains enriches the characterization of school climate research and increases the likelihood of creating meaningful change through school reform initiatives that focus on multiple pathways to student success. second, school climate could be a potentially promising target for intervention. a growing number of empirical research on school-wide interventions provides support that altering social processes of school climate across multiple domains will produce better outcomes for students. third, school climate is predictive of student academic, behavioral, and psychological outcomes. extensive empirical research has demonstrated a link between positive features of school climate and optimal student outcomes across academic, behavioral, and psychosocial domains. fourth, school climate is inclusive; each domain of school climate combines constructs that are usually studied separately. school climate research, therefore, unites divergent disciplines throughout the educational and psychological literature by including both structural and process factors that are known to shape the overall climate and impact the well-being of all persons within the school
What are the predictions in the future?
a high-quality school that meets the psychological, physical, and cognitive needs of its students is a school that will produce better educated citizens to take on the problems of tomorrow
school climate research has permeated literature in education and psychology and offered a number of insights into the capacity of schools to shape student learning, decrease delinquent behaviors, and improve psychological well-being. there are several characteristics that can be gleaned from an extensive review of the literature. first, school climate is multidimensional. the inclusion of multiple domains enriches the characterization of school climate research and increases the likelihood of creating meaningful change through school reform initiatives that focus on multiple pathways to student success. second, school climate could be a potentially promising target for intervention. a growing number of empirical research on school-wide interventions provides support that altering social processes of school climate across multiple domains will produce better outcomes for students. third, school climate is predictive of student academic, behavioral, and psychological outcomes. extensive empirical research has demonstrated a link between positive features of school climate and optimal student outcomes across academic, behavioral, and psychosocial domains. fourth, school climate is inclusive; each domain of school climate combines constructs that are usually studied separately. school climate research, therefore, unites divergent disciplines throughout the educational and psychological literature by including both structural and process factors that are known to shape the overall climate and impact the well-being of all persons within the school. although not necessarily an exhaustive list, these four principles represent the key points that demarcate a collective review of school climate research, which has demonstrated great potential from an applied and policy-relevant perspective as a target and catalyst for successful program implementation. although school climate research has progressed over the years, it is not lacking in complexities, limitations, and need for advancement. there is no universally accepted definition for climate nor is there consensus on the specific domains, features, or indicators that comprise it. we know little about how school climate changes over time, how domains or features interact to shape student outcomes, and how different source reporters may differentially impact outcomes of interest. however, some prominent findings have surfaced; we know that it is a malleable, multidimensional conceptualization that can shape student outcomes. all of these factors stress the important role that school climate plays in intervention work. its ability to bring about meaningful change in student well-being demonstrates the importance of school climate as a target and catalyst for reform efforts. given the number of institutions that are failing to provide students with the educational tools and skills that are necessary to succeed in life, greater attention must be given to improving our nation ' s schools. although the effects of adverse conditions in one ' s home life or neighborhood may not be fully ameliorated, schools should be able to buffer these effects by providing students with a safe and healthy place to learn, socialize, discover, and explore. a high-quality school that meets the psychological, physical, and cognitive needs of its students is a school that will produce better educated citizens to take on the problems of tomorrow.
What is a major challenge to ecologists and resource managers?
detecting and forecasting the effects of changing climate on natural and exploited populations represent a major challenge to ecologists and resource managers
What are the changes in timing of springs as compared to early 1960s?
the timing of spring breakup has moved about seven days earlier now than it was in the early 1960s
What was associated with warmer summer water temperatures and increased zooplankton?
this progression toward earlier spring breakup dates was associated with warmer summer water temperatures and increased zooplankton
detecting and forecasting the effects of changing climate on natural and exploited populations represent a major challenge to ecologists and resource managers. these efforts are complicated by underlying density-dependent processes and the differential responses of predators and their prey to changing climate. we explored the effects of density-dependence and changing climate on growth of juvenile sockeye salmon and the densities of their zooplankton prey in the wood river system of southwestern alaska. we fit dynamic time-series models to data collected between 1962 and 2002 describing growth of juvenile sockeye, timing of spring ice breakup, and summer zooplankton densities. the timing of spring breakup has moved about seven days earlier now than it was in the early 1960s. our analyses suggest that most of this shift has been a response to the warm phase of the pacific decadal oscillation that persisted from the mid-1970s to the late 1990s. this progression toward earlier spring breakup dates was associated with warmer summer water temperatures and increased zooplankton (especially
what makes multiple impact on water management
evaluations of flood likelihood and consequences, and hence flood risk, can impact multiple decisions throughout water management. infrastructure reliability is often evaluated relative to its ability to withstand unlikely flood events
Explain water control plans?
water-control plans for surfacewater reservoirs often feature "flood space" requirements linked to hydrologic event hazards, varying throughout the year, and expectations for downstream societal protection against floods
what is climate regime?
fundamentally, the climate regime underlying the hydrologic possibilities directly determines the portfolio of hydrologic hazards that could occur. for this reason, it is reasonable to question the appropriateness of any underlying climate assumption for a given flood-risk evaluation
evaluations of flood likelihood and consequences, and hence flood risk, can impact multiple decisions throughout water management. infrastructure reliability is often evaluated relative to its ability to withstand unlikely flood events. levee systems, canals, and dams are evaluated regularly with respect to their ability to endure events. water-control plans for surfacewater reservoirs often feature "flood space" requirements linked to hydrologic event hazards, varying throughout the year, and expectations for downstream societal protection against floods. climate assumptions are evident in flood-risk evaluations based on how hydrologic hazards are characterized. fundamentally, the climate regime underlying the hydrologic possibilities directly determines the portfolio of hydrologic hazards that could occur. for this reason, it is reasonable to question the appropriateness of any underlying climate assumption for a given flood-risk evaluation.
Can droughts that occur frequently cause an unrecoverable decline in cattle?
the pastoral lands of east africa have experienced droughts about one year in five, and even under these conditions it is generally possible to maintain relatively constant cattle herd sizes; but increases in drought frequency from one year in five to one year in three would set herd sizes on a rapid and unrecoverable decline
What are the effects of extreme rainfall on food in dryland areas?
droughts and extreme rainfall variability can trigger periods of severe feed scarcity
What is the comfort zone range for most domestic livestock?
most domesticated livestock species have comfort zones between 10 and 30 degc; at temperatures below this
most domesticated livestock species have comfort zones between 10 and 30 degc; at temperatures below this, maintenance requirements for food may increase by up to 50%, and at temperatures above this, animals reduce their feed intake 3-5% per additional degree of temperature (nrc, 1981). in many livestock systems, changes in temperature and rainfall and rainfall variability affect feed quantity most directly. droughts and extreme rainfall variability can trigger periods of severe feed scarcity, especially in dryland areas, which can have devastating effects on livestock populations. in the recent past, the pastoral lands of east africa have experienced droughts about one year in five, and even under these conditions it is generally possible to maintain relatively constant cattle herd sizes; but increases in drought frequency from one year in five to one year in three would set herd sizes on a rapid and unrecoverable decline (thornton and herrero, 2009). in kenya, some 1.8 million extra cattle
Define coral bleaching ecosystem?
example, coral bleaching can occur in a single exceptionally warm season, while long-lived organisms such as trees may be able to persist for decades under a changed climate, but be unable to regenerate
Why ecosystems may be disrupted ?
when subjected to climate change, including changes in the frequency of extreme events, ecosystems may be disrupted as a consequence of differences in response times of species. some carbon cycle models project the global terrestrial carbon net uptake peaks during the 21st century, then levels off or declines
Define net uptake of CO2 by terrestrial ecosystems?
the recent global net uptake of co2 by terrestrial ecosystems is partly the result of time lags between enhanced plant growth and plant death and decay. current enhanced plant growth is partly due to fertilization effects of elevated co2 and nitrogen deposition, and changes in climate and land-use practices
some ecosystems show the effects of climate change quickly, while others do so more slowly. for example, coral bleaching can occur in a single exceptionally warm season, while long-lived organisms such as trees may be able to persist for decades under a changed climate, but be unable to regenerate. when subjected to climate change, including changes in the frequency of extreme events, ecosystems may be disrupted as a consequence of differences in response times of species. some carbon cycle models project the global terrestrial carbon net uptake peaks during the 21st century, then levels off or declines. the recent global net uptake of co2 by terrestrial ecosystems is partly the result of time lags between enhanced plant growth and plant death and decay. current enhanced plant growth is partly due to fertilization effects of elevated co2 and nitrogen deposition, and changes in climate and land-use practices. the uptake will decline as forests reach maturity, fertilization effects saturate, and decomposition catches up with growth. climate change is likely to further reduce net terrestrial carbon uptake globally. although warming reduces the uptake of co2 by the ocean, the oceanic carbon sink is projected to persist under rising atmospheric co2, at least for the 21st century. movement of carbon from the surface to the deep ocean takes centuries, and its equilibration there with ocean sediments takes millennia.
What did the cutback in global demand for fossil fuels imply for fossil fuel importers and exporters?
cutback in global demand for fossil fuels implies a significant drop of their prices providing economic gains to fossil fuel importers and losses to fossil fuel exporters
in abating countries, what prices were raised in abating countries?
higher energy costs raise the prices of non-energy goods (in particular energyintensive goods) produced in abating countries
How did countries that import non-energy goods suffer due to higher fuel prices?
countries that import these goods suffer from higher prices to the extent that they can not substitute away towards cheaper imports of nonabating countries
most important are changes on international fuel markets for crude oil, gas and coal. the cutback in global demand for fossil fuels implies a significant drop of their prices providing economic gains to fossil fuel importers and losses to fossil fuel exporters. these fossil fuel market effects explain most of the welfare impacts for non-abating countries. the economic implications of international price changes on non-energy markets are more complex. higher energy costs raise the prices of non-energy goods (in particular energyintensive goods) produced in abating countries. countries that import these goods suffer from higher prices to the extent that they can not substitute away towards cheaper imports of nonabating countries. the ease of substitution not only determines the implicit burden shifting via
What determines the effectiveness of rainfall in a region?
intensity and spread of the rainfall in each region
What is the average annual temperature ranges of these regions?
less than 10 deg c to 30 deg c
Where are the highest temperatures recorded and what are they?
the highest temperatures are recorded in the arid regions of the north eastern province along the somalia coast and to the west of lake turkana where the night minimum may be as high as 29 deg c during the rainy seasons
rainfall and temperature the country receives a bimodal type of rainfall where the 'long rains' fall between march and may and the 'short rains' between october and december. the intensity and spread of the rainfall in each region determines the effectiveness of the rainfall. the average annual rainfall ranges from 250mm to 2500mm; the average potential evaporation ranges from less than 1200mm to 2500mm; and the average annual temperature ranges from less than 10 deg c to 30 deg c. a relatively wet belt extends along the indian ocean coast and another wet area covers western kenya just east of lake victoria. all the mountain ranges have high rainfall while dry tongues are found in the valleys and basins. the annual rainfall generally follows a strong seasonal pattern, with variations being strongest in the dry lowlands of the north and east, but weakest in the humid highlands of the central and rift valley areas. mean temperatures in kenya are closely related to ground elevation. the highest temperatures are recorded in the arid regions of the north eastern province along the somalia coast and to the west of lake turkana where the night minimum may be as high as 29 deg c during the rainy seasons. coldest areas are the tops of the mountains where night frost occurs above 10,000 feet and permanent snow or ice cover the area above 16,000 feet (mt kenya). annual temperature variations are generally small (less than 5 deg c) throughout the country.
what determination of  soluble carbohydrates
for the determination of soluble carbohydrates, 5-10 u l of phloem sap was diluted 1:1000 and phloem exudates 1:50 with demineralized water
how many injected to the u l
 aliquots of 100 u l were injected into a high-performance liquid chromatography (hplc) system
for the determination of soluble carbohydrates, 5-10 u l of phloem sap was diluted 1:1000 and phloem exudates 1:50 with demineralized water. aliquots of 100 u l were injected into a high-performance liquid chromatography (hplc) system (dx 500; dionex, idstein, germany) as described by gessler et al (2002). separation of sugars was achieved on a carbopac 1 separation column (250 x 4.1 mm; dionex) with 36 mm naoh as an eluent at a flow rate of 1 ml min- 1. carbohydrates were measured by means of a pulsed amperometric detector equipped with an au working electrode (dx 500; dionex). individual carbohydrates that eluted 8-16 min after injection were identified and quantified by internal and external standards.
What is the interpretation outputs
the scale of influence particular environmental variables have on species habitat for interpretation of the sdm outputs
To what scale or amplification the capabilities is?
an advantage of the decision tree approach, amplified via the 1000 trees of randomforest
In which year the scale matters is discussed in the paragraph
scale matters (wiens 1989 
scale matters (wiens 1989 ). it is important to understand the scale of influence particular environmental variables have on species habitat for interpretation of the sdm outputs and for applying the outcomes to management and decisionmaking. an advantage of the decision tree approach, amplified via the 1000 trees of randomforest, is the capability to assess the scale of influence of variables via the tree diagram (moore and others 1991 ), in that variables appearing at the top of the tree have coarse-scale influences (often temperature in our models), whereas those appearing lower down have finer-scale influences. for example, balsam fir is related highly to climate variables at the regional level, although scarlet oak is more controlled by soil variables at that scale; the reverse is true at the local or intra-distributional level (figure 6 ).
Is double ITCZ a classical bias of coupled 633 models (see e. g. Dai, 2006)?
this double itcz is a classical bias of coupled 633 models (see e. g. dai, 2006
What regions did the monsoon rainfall not extend sufficiently to the north in IPSL-CM4?
the monsoon rainfall over west africa and the indian 635 sub-continent did not extend sufficiently to the north in ipsl-cm4
Where was rainfall deficiency of the IPSL-CM4 version 631 was the presence of a second zone of convergence noticed?
for the rainfall (fig. 22), an important deficiency of the ipsl-cm4 version 631 was the presence of a second zone of convergence south of the equator, both in 632 the pacific and atlantic ocean
for the rainfall (fig. 22), an important deficiency of the ipsl-cm4 version 631 was the presence of a second zone of convergence south of the equator, both in 632 the pacific and atlantic ocean. this double itcz is a classical bias of coupled 633 models (see e. g. dai, 2006). it is still present in the new version, both in the 634 lr and mr configurations. the monsoon rainfall over west africa and the indian 635 sub-continent did not extend sufficiently to the north in ipsl-cm4. this point is 636 slightly improved in the new version. this could be due in part to the reduction 637 of the latitudinal biases in sst and in part to the modifications in the surface 638 scheme. since this question of the latitudinal extension of monsoons is rather 639
What is a global climate model GCM used for?
numerous research studies have used general circulation models (gcms) to simulate the future climate
What are the elements included in GCM ?
models include three-dimensional representations of the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere and land surface, and the parameterizations of the associated physical processes
What are the major areas of uncertainty in GCMs ?
the major areas of uncertainty in gcms include clouds and their radiative effects, the hydrological balance over land surfaces and the heat flux at the ocean surface. despite these uncertainties, gcms provide the best means available to estimate the impact of changes in the future climate on the fire regime at larger scales
numerous research studies have used general circulation models (gcms) to simulate the future climate; these models include three-dimensional representations of the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere and land surface, and the parameterizations of the associated physical processes. future climate scenarios are built based on the effects of various concentrations of greenhouse gases and other pollutants within the atmosphere on our earth-atmosphere system. transient simulations are available from gcms which allow examination of the possible rates of change in the climate. the major areas of uncertainty in gcms include clouds and their radiative effects, the hydrological balance over land surfaces and the heat flux at the ocean surface. despite these uncertainties, gcms provide the best means available to estimate the impact of changes in the future climate on the fire regime at larger scales. most models predict the greatest warming at high latitudes in winter. confidence is lower for estimates of precipitation fields, but many models suggest increased moisture deficits, particularly in the center of continents during summer. in
what does lack of financial resources limit?
adaptation options
what does lack of technology limit?
range of potential adaptation options
what does * Lack of informed, skilled and trained personnel reduce?
adaptive capacity
determinant explanation economic resources * greater economic resources increase adaptive capacity *lack of financial resources limits adaptation options. technology * lack of technology limits range of potential adaptation options. *less technologically advanced regions are less likely to develop and/or implement technological adaptations. information and skills * lack of informed, skilled and trained personnel reduces adaptive capacity *greater access to information increases likelihood of timely and appropriate adaptation. infrastructure * greater variety of infrastructure can enhance adaptive capacity since it provides more options. *characteristics and location of infrastructure also affect adaptive capacity institutions * well-developed social institutions help to reduce impacts of climate-related risks, and therefore increase adaptive capacity equity * equitable distribution of resources increases adaptive capacity *both availability of, and access to, resources is important.
what does this chapter highlight?
this chapter highlights the different types of early adaptation efforts in a developing context, draws broad lessons from them
when did the NGOs began piloting small adaptation projects at the community level?
in the early 2000s, nongovernmental organisations (ngos) began piloting small adaptation projects at the community level
when the situation shifted dramatically due to a confluence of circumstances?
in 2007, the situation shifted dramatically due to a confluence of circumstances
this chapter highlights the different types of early adaptation efforts in a developing context, draws broad lessons from them, and then establishes three principles for adaptation m&e, based on this review of current practice. over the past two decades, adaptation was hotly debated in the global united nations (un)-led climate negotiations, and in academic journals, but this discourse resulted in limited action. in the early 2000s, nongovernmental organisations (ngos) began piloting small adaptation projects at the community level, several bilateral programs and multilateral initiatives were launched, and proactive governments began slowly incorporating adaptation into their domestic development policies and international assistance programs. in 2007, the situation shifted dramatically due to a confluence of circumstances. the completion of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) fourth assessment report12, united nations development program's (undp's) climate-focused human development report13, and international agreement on the bali action plan vaulted adaptation into the spotlight as an important development issue. today governments and funders have a modest body of global experience from which to begin drawing some lessons for m&e.14
When do the effects of climate change occur?
over very long time horizons (50 to 200 years
What does financial data suggest d is in the range of?
2 to 5 percent
Why have some economists argued d should be zero on ethical grounds?
that it is unethical to discount the welfare of future generations relative to our own welfare
journal of economic literature, vol. li (september 2013) 864 are attached to one or more parameters.8 equation (1) might be applied to the united states (as in the interagency working group study), to the entire world, or to different regions of the world. i will put aside the question of how meaningful equation (1) is as a welfare measure, and focus instead on the two critical parameters, d and e we can begin by asking what is the "correct" value for the rate of time preference, d this parameter is crucial because the effects of climate change occur over very long time horizons (50 to 200 years), so a value of d above 2 percent would make it hard to justify even a very moderate abatement policy. financial data reflecting investor behavior and macroeconomic data reflecting consumer and firm behavior suggest that d is in the range of 2 to 5 percent. while a rate in this range might reflect the preferences of investors and consumers, should it also reflect intergenerational preferences and thus apply to time horizons greater than fifty years? some economists (e.g., stern 2008 and heal 2009) have argued that on ethical grounds d should be zero for such horizons, i.e., that it is unethical to discount the welfare of future generations relative to our own welfare. but why is it unethical? putting aside their personal views, economists have little to say about that question.9 i would argue that the rate of time preference is a policy parameter i.e., it reflects the choices of policy makers, who might or might not believe
Are countries that are achieving an improvement of human development from a low level likely to increase their energy consumption substantially?
however, countries that are achieving an improvement of human development from a low level are unlikely to increase their energy consumption substantially
What is the relation between the expansion of the middle class and greenhouse gas emissions?
only at a level where middle class expands rapidly, energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions soar
What are the most effective measures to address developing country emissions?
thus targeting middle class energy consumption by appliance efficiency standards and public transportfriendly urban planning are the most effective measures to address developing country emissions
we further analyze whether the use of development aid for climate policy could be justified as a countermeasure against the emission increase related to successful development itself. however, countries that are achieving an improvement of human development from a low level are unlikely to increase their energy consumption substantially. only at a level where middle class expands rapidly, energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions soar. thus targeting middle class energy consumption by appliance efficiency standards and public transportfriendly urban planning are the most effective measures to address developing country emissions. rural renewable energy provision in poor countries has a much higher impact on poverty, but a much lower impact on greenhouse gas emissions. 1 1
what reasons of  spreading to dengue
dengue fever is the most significant mosquito-borne viral disease of humans and is a leading cause of childhood deaths and hospitalizations in many countries. variations in environmental conditions, especially climatic parameters
which examine how modelled ae
aegypti to observed climatic variations from 1958 to 1995 and to examine how modelled ae
which country reported to historical dengue
aegypti populations are strongly correlated to reported historical dengue/dhf cases, especially in central america and southeast asia
dengue fever is the most significant mosquito-borne viral disease of humans and is a leading cause of childhood deaths and hospitalizations in many countries. variations in environmental conditions, especially climatic parameters, affect the dengue viruses and their principal mosquito vector, aedes aegypti but few studies have attempted to quantify these relationships at the global scale. here we use a numerical model to simulate the response of ae. aegypti to observed climatic variations from 1958 to 1995 and to examine how modelled ae. aegypti populations may be related to dengue and dhf cases worldwide. we find that variations in climate can induce large variations in modelled ae. aegypti populations at the global scale. furthermore, these climate-induced variations in modelled ae. aegypti populations are strongly correlated to reported historical dengue/dhf cases, especially in central america and southeast asia. these results suggest that potential dengue caseloads could be anticipated using seasonal climate forecasts to drive the mosquito model, thus providing a useful tool in public health management. key words: dengue * climate * aedes aegypti * mosquito * model * population dynamics * climate forecasts
What is a limitation of climate warming to some species?
although climate warming could allow a species to extend its range, it might not be able to shift with its climatic envelope because of limited dispersal capabilities (thomas et al 2004
Give the name of a species of moth that may suffer?
the nun moth lymantria monacha (l.) is likely to suffer from too large an increase in temperatures because of negative effects on diapause termination (vanhanen et al 2007
What does Bale suggest?
bale et al (2002) suggest that changes in the range distribution of the insect species could be roughly determined by a combination between the growth rate (slow or fast) and diapause requirement
although climate warming could allow a species to extend its range, it might not be able to shift with its climatic envelope because of limited dispersal capabilities (thomas et al 2004). increased temperatures might extend the flying period of insects and thereby enable them to become dispersed over greater distances (ott 2008). for instance, migration patterns of the silver y moth autographa gamma (l.) (lepidoptera: noctuidae) to britain are largely influenced by the changes in temperatures and rainfall in its overwintering sites of north africa (chapman et al 2008). following the heat wave that occurred in europe during the summer of 2003, the distribution of the pine processionary moth has considerably extended at higher elevations in the italian alps. battisti et al (2006) show that the nights above the threshold temperature for flight take-off (14 degc) were over 5 times more frequent, and considerably warmer, at the range limit in 2003 than in an average year. therefore, a larger proportion of female moths was allowed to disperse over long distances. indeed, a number of species belonging to different groups such as beetles, butterflies, dragonflies and grasshoppers have moved northwards and to higher elevations during the past 30 years (hickling et al 2006). although most studies provide evidence of expansion, few species have been reported to show no change in distribution or even a contraction of their southern range with global warming (see menendez 2007 for a review). southerly distributed butterfly species in britain tend to expand their range distribution northwards, whereas the most northerly distributed species have little opportunity to expand northward and most of them will probably decline (hill et al 2002). even though a large variability is observed among species, parmesan et al (1999) show that the northern limit of european butterflies tends to shift northwards, whereas the southern limit remains stable in most cases. as an example for possible range contraction in the future, the nun moth lymantria monacha (l.) is likely to suffer from too large an increase in temperatures because of negative effects on diapause termination (vanhanen et al 2007). more generally, assuming that the growth period takes place during summer and the single diapause during winter, bale et al (2002) suggest that changes in the range distribution of the insect species could be roughly determined by a combination between the growth rate (slow or fast) and diapause requirement. they predict that: (i) fast growing, non-diapausing species are likely to be multivoltine and expand their ranges (e.g. anholocyclic aphids); (ii) fast growing species with a temperature-dependent diapause might contract their ranges (e.g. the lepidopterans inachis io [l.], aglais urticae [l.] and saturnia pavonia [l.]); and (iii) slow-growing species with a temperature-dependent diapause will not maintain their ranges and will probably decline (e.g. lasiocampa quercus callunae palmer). even when a species is actually able to expand its distribution, another factor might affect its establishment.
How many of the 15 interactions tested were significant?
of the 15 interactions tested, only one was significant
How was the gender discrimination perceived by social scientists?
for social scientists, experiencing more gender discrimination was significantly related to having less influence
Was there a relation of gender discrimination and felt influence by natural scientists?
for natural scientists, gender discrimination and felt influence were not significantly related
note 1. to test for interactions by type of scientist (natural or social), a second set of multiple regression analyses was performed. these analyses was the same as those reported here, except that they included a fourth step in which five 2-way interaction terms, comprising the five main study variables (sexual harassment, gender discrimination, sexist climate, positive climate, chair leadership) by type of scientist, were entered. for the interactions, continuous independent variables were centered (except sexual harassment, which was already a standardized measure) and interaction terms were formed multiplicatively (aiken west, 1991). of the 15 interactions tested, only one was significant: type of scientist moderated the relationship between gender discrimination and felt influence. specifically, for social scientists, experiencing more gender discrimination was significantly related to having less influence; for natural scientists, gender discrimination and felt influence were not significantly related.
How can the the researchers and decision-makers supporting these objectives assess the unevenness of existing development affects urban adaptation?
researchers and decision-makers supporting these objectives have opportunities to more critically assess how the unevenness of existing development affects urban adaptation plans and projects, and how these in turn shape the socio-spatial distribution of risks, vulnerabilities, and adaptive capacity
There is a problem in placing the burden of responsibility on local governments?
this can disadvantage many poorer and less capacitated cities around the world unable to launch adaptation planning, much less engage their disadvantaged communities in this process
There is a problem in placing the burden of responsibility only on the municipal scale?
focusing on the municipal scale also hinders the systematic evaluation of how variations in socio-economic conditions, political voice, and governance capacity across cities affect the cumulative adaptation of urban regions
researchers and decision-makers supporting these objectives have opportunities to more critically assess how the unevenness of existing development affects urban adaptation plans and projects, and how these in turn shape the socio-spatial distribution of risks, vulnerabilities, and adaptive capacity. to date, efforts to promote urban adaptation planning have focused on the municipal level6. however, placing the burden of responsibility on local governments without strengthening their financial and technical capacity accentuates the differences between cities' ability to adapt7. this can disadvantage many poorer and less capacitated cities around the world unable to launch adaptation planning, much less engage their disadvantaged communities in this process. focusing on the municipal scale also hinders the systematic evaluation of how variations in socio-economic conditions, political voice, and governance capacity across cities affect the cumulative adaptation of urban regions. in addition, it obscures needs for complementary actions across multiple levels of government and sectors to redress inequities in responses to climate change7. in response to such challenges, this paper proposes a roadmap for research focused on four interrelated opportunities to advance equitable socio-spatial adaptation:
What so the results of the filtering methodology show?
a remarkably clean rendition of twentieth-century globalmean temperature variability
What happens when the signal of volcanic eruptions are subsequently removed from the date?
the time series are dominated by century-long warming that is punctuated primarily by 1) the step in global-mean temperatures in 1945 and 2) a brief cooling in the 1970s
What are the three aspects of the twentieth-century temperature variability highlighted by the residual data?
he long-term trends, the coupling between the ocean and land time series on the interannual time scale, and a change in the properties of the land time series around 1945-50
the results of the filtering methodology provide a remarkably clean rendition of twentieth-century globalmean temperature variability. when the enso and dynamically induced variability are removed from the global-mean temperature time series, the analyses highlight the spurious drop in ssts in 1945 and draw out the signal of major volcanic eruptions in surface temperatures (figs. 4 and 5). when the signal of volcanic eruptions is subsequently removed from the data, the time series are dominated by century-long warming that is punctuated primarily by 1) the step in global-mean temperatures in 1945 and 2) a brief cooling in the 1970s (fig. 10). in this section we discuss three aspects of twentieth-century temperature variability highlighted by the residual data: the long-term trends, the coupling between the ocean and land time series on the interannual time scale, and a change in the properties of the land time series around 1945-50.
What does the multi-hazard assessment contribute to understanding?
the multi-hazard assessment presented here contributes to understanding to what extent climate-related extreme events will take place under climate change
What did the joint scheme propose?
the joint scheme proposed to quantify the overall multi-hazard exposure and concurrent increases in exposure enables the identification of areas in europe that are likely to be most endangered by multiple climate hazards along the twenty-first century
Where do key hotspots usually emerge?
key hotspots emerge particularly along coastlines and in floodplains in southern and western europe, which are often highly populated and economically pivotal
the multi-hazard assessment presented here contributes to understanding to what extent climate-related extreme events will take place under climate change. in particular, the use of a common reference unit based on the probability of occurrence of extremes in current climatology allows comparing the changes in hazard frequency amongst multiple climate extremes and to quantitatively compare them. the adopted homogenized intensity scale permits identifying those hazards that will likely manifest larger changes in exposed areas along the twenty-first century. the combination of changes in multiple climate extremes into single indices leads to a clearer detection of changes in total hazard exposure thanks to the enhanced signal-to-noise ratio. the joint scheme proposed to quantify the overall multi-hazard exposure and concurrent increases in exposure enables the identification of areas in europe that are likely to be most endangered by multiple climate hazards along the twenty-first century. key findings can be summarized as in the following: - projected changes in the occurrence of the seven climate extremes depict important variations in hazard scenarios with large spatial patterns modulated by local climate conditions. - europe will see a progressive and strong increase in overall climate hazard with a prominent spatial gradient towards south-western regions. - key hotspots emerge particularly along coastlines and in floodplains in southern and western europe, which are often highly populated and economically pivotal.
With what do explosive volcanic eruptions fill the atmosphere?
explosive volcanic eruptions fill the atmosphere with ash and gases, most of which fall close to the eruption
What does sulfur dioxide gas emitted by volcanoes sometimes directly into the stratosphere gets converted to?
however, sulfur dioxide gas emitted by volcanoes, sometimes directly into the stratosphere 10 km high), is converted to sulfate aerosols
What contributes to a change in radiative forcing over the anthropocene?
changes in the number of volcanic eruptions have contributed to a change in radiative forcing over the anthropocene (10
explosive volcanic eruptions fill the atmosphere with ash and gases, most of which fall close to the eruption. however, sulfur dioxide gas emitted by volcanoes, sometimes directly into the stratosphere 10 km high), is converted to sulfate aerosols; these have a residence time in the stratosphere of 1-2 years and produce strong radiative forcing (2) and a corresponding response in global surface temperatures of a few tenths of a degree for some strong eruptions table 2 (188). changes in the number of volcanic eruptions have contributed to a change in radiative forcing over the anthropocene (10). stratospheric aerosols impact ozone chemistry in the lower stratosphere through aerosolchemistry interactions and by cooling the atmosphere (see atmospheric chemistry section, above, and reference 57). volcanic explosions dominate the stratospheric aerosol signal in
What happens if the learning is more difficult to patent and appropriate the related rents?
on the other hand, one expected learning to be more difficult to patent and appropriate the related rents, then renewable subsidy policies would be relatively more justified to internalize the knowledge externality
What happens if learning is more firm-specific and less likely to spill over?
for example, if one expects learning to be more firm-specific, and thus less likely to spill over, policies subsidizing renewables are less appropriate for compensating for the knowledge externality
What does this model assume?
although the model assumes that the appropriation rate for knowledge generated through r&d and learning is the same, the sensitivity analyses shed some light on the potential effect of relaxing this assumption
although the model assumes that the appropriation rate for knowledge generated through r&d and learning is the same, the sensitivity analyses shed some light on the potential effect of relaxing this assumption. for example, if one expects learning to be more firm-specific, and thus less likely to spill over, policies subsidizing renewables are less appropriate for compensating for the knowledge externality. they would therefore perform less well relative to the other policies. if, on the other hand, one expected learning to be more difficult to patent and appropriate the related rents, then renewable subsidy policies would be relatively more justified to internalize the knowledge externality. resources for the future fischer and newell
Elevated concentrations of what have affected the global climate?
elevated concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases (ghgs), particularly carbon dioxide (co2), have affected the global climate
What strategies are considered viable pathway towards climate stabilization?
land-based biological carbon mitigation strategies are considered an important and viable pathway towards climate stabilization
How many billion tonnes of carbon biological carbon and bioenergy mitigation can save?
if executed accordingly, through avoided emissions and carbon sequestration, biological carbon and bioenergy mitigation could save up to 38 billion tonnes of carbon and 3-8% of estimated energy consumption, respectively, by 2050
elevated concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases (ghgs), particularly carbon dioxide (co2), have affected the global climate. land-based biological carbon mitigation strategies are considered an important and viable pathway towards climate stabilization. however, to satisfy the growing demands for food, wood products, energy, climate mitigation and biodiversity conservation--all of which compete for increasingly limited quantities of biomass and land--the deployment of mitigation strategies must be driven by sustainable and integrated land management. if executed accordingly, through avoided emissions and carbon sequestration, biological carbon and bioenergy mitigation could save up to 38 billion tonnes of carbon and 3-8% of estimated energy consumption, respectively, by 2050.
Wht would it be necessary to acquire robust information on climate change?
in this context, it is necessary to acquire robust information on climate change that may be reliably used for different management scales, and to properly assess the spatial distribution of the main uncertainties across areas of interest
When did General Circulation Models (GCMs) start providing the most appropriate simulations of climate change for coarse spatial resolutions?
since the 1960s
What did the PRUDENCE project (5th EU Framework Programme) helpful for the European continent?
for the european continent, the prudence project (5th eu framework programme) provided a number of high-resolution climate change scenarios for the years 2070 through 2100
in this context, it is necessary to acquire robust information on climate change that may be reliably used for different management scales, and to properly assess the spatial distribution of the main uncertainties across areas of interest. since the 1960s, general circulation models (gcms) provide the most appropriate simulations of climate change for coarse spatial resolutions (smagorinsky, 1963; manabe, 1971). nowadays, the gcm continue as a useful tool for assessing climate change impacts at coarse scales; but the need to increase the spatial resolution of the projections, in order to obtain more detailed regional information suitable for management purposes, led to the application of different downscaling techniques, such as statistical downscaling (trigo and palutikof, 2001; prudhome et al ., 2002; diaz-nieto and wilby, 2005), or dynamical downscaling by means of regional climate models (rcms) (giorgi and mearns, 1991). the latter are the result of relatively recent advances in our understanding of the relationships between different climatic elements and their feedbacks, and the inclusion of fine-scale parameters (e.g. topography, coastlines, different land features, etc.) (giorgi, 2005). for the european continent, the prudence project (5th eu framework programme) provided a number of high-resolution climate change scenarios for the years 2070 through 2100;
how many models are used to simulate the climate change?
15 coupled models simulating climate change and current interannual variability
what were the results of the study?
1) differ the most in climate change and (2) disagree the most with observations in the current climate (most models underestimate the interannual sensitivity of clouds albedo to a change in temperature
the radiative response of tropical clouds to global warming exhibits a large spread among climate models, and this constitutes a major source of uncertainty for climate sensitivity estimates. to better interpret the origin of that uncertainty, we analyze the sensitivity of the tropical cloud radiative forcing to a change in sea surface temperature that is simulated by 15 coupled models simulating climate change and current interannual variability. we show that it is in regimes of large-scale subsidence that the model results (1) differ the most in climate change and (2) disagree the most with observations in the current climate (most models underestimate the interannual sensitivity of clouds albedo to a change in temperature). this suggests that the simulation of the sensitivity of marine boundary layer clouds to changing environmental conditions constitutes, currently, the main source of uncertainty in tropical cloud feedbacks simulated by general circulation models. citation: bony, s., and j.-l. dufresne (2005), marine boundary layer clouds at the heart of tropical cloud feedback uncertainties in climate models, geophys. res. lett. 32 l20806, doi:10.1029/2005gl023851.
What can be inferred from those shown by using some established approximation methods?.
alternative scenarios and projection times
What is 'pattern scaling' ?
approximation that has been explicitly suggested in the description of the rcps
in this chapter we show geographical patterns of projected changes in climate variables according to specific scenarios and time horizons. alternative scenarios and projection times can be inferred from those shown by using some established approximation methods. this is especially the case for large-scale regional patterns of average temperature and--with additional caveats--precipitation changes. in fact, 'pattern scaling' is an approximation that has been explicitly suggested in the description of the rcps (moss et al., 2010) as a method for deriving impact-relevant regional projections for scenarios that have not been simulated by global and regional climate models. it was first proposed
What is AVHRR?
nylen et al. (in prep), and future research will clearly benefit from more detailed measurements of pressure, temperature and wind in the valleys, combined with avhrr observations
What is DJF?
with the reduction of frequent katabatic storms in the summer, average temperature in summer (djf) varies predictably according to the dry adiabatic lapse rate and distance from the coast
nylen et al. (in prep), and future research will clearly benefit from more detailed measurements of pressure, temperature and wind in the valleys, combined with avhrr observations. with the reduction of frequent katabatic storms in the summer, average temperature in summer (djf) varies predictably according to the dry adiabatic lapse rate and distance from the coast. summer temperatures are strongly controlled by the coastal winds which warm at a rate of 0.09  c km 1as they move inland, and cool with inland elevation at the dry adiabatic lapse rate. this interaction of air masses in the summer creates a strong relationship between temperature and distance from the coast that can be used to model current and past summer temperatures in uninstrumented regions of the dry valleys.
What is provided In addition to the combined monthly means?
in addition to the combined monthly means, an uncertainty and standard deviation of the combined product is also provided in swoosh
What are provided in Appendix B?
the derivation and details of the combined uncertainty and standard deviation estimates are provided in appendix b, as well as an explanation of the meaning of the terms in the combined uncertainty and standard deviation estimates
What is provided by the individual satellite teams?
the uncertainty for k th satellite's monthly-mean value sqk) can be expressed as a standard error of the mean sqk srmssk [?] nk where srmssk is the rmss uncertainty, which is simply a combination in quadrature of the nk retrieval uncertainties sqraw kn, which are provided by the individual satellite teams
in addition to the combined monthly means, an uncertainty and standard deviation of the combined product is also provided in swoosh. the derivation and details of the combined uncertainty and standard deviation estimates are provided in appendix b, as well as an explanation of the meaning of the terms in the combined uncertainty and standard deviation estimates. in this section, we provide an overview of the uncertainty and standard deviation estimates that are derived and described in detail in appendix b, along with examples and discussion of their use in swoosh. as shown in appendix b, the uncertainty for k th satellite's monthly-mean value sqk) can be expressed as a standard error of the mean sqk srmssk [?] nk where srmssk is the rmss uncertainty, which is simply a combination in quadrature of the nk retrieval uncertainties sqraw kn, which are provided by the individual satellite teams)
What will influence species distribution?
climate change may strongly influence species distribution and, thus, the structure and function of ecosystems
What does the paper desribe?
this paper describes simulated changes in the position of the upper treeline in the swedish mountains in response to predicted climate change
What did the results of the treeline show?
ountains in response to predicted climate change. data on predicted summer temperature changes, the current position of the treeline, and a digital elevation model were used to predict the position of the treeline over a 100-year timeframe. the results show the treeline advancing upward by 233-667 m, depending on the climate scenario used and location within the mountain chain
climate change may strongly influence species distribution and, thus, the structure and function of ecosystems. this paper describes simulated changes in the position of the upper treeline in the swedish mountains in response to predicted climate change. data on predicted summer temperature changes, the current position of the treeline, and a digital elevation model were used to predict the position of the treeline over a 100-year timeframe. the results show the treeline advancing upward by 233-667 m, depending on the climate scenario used and location within the mountain chain. such changes hypothetically caused a 75-85% reduction in treeless alpine heaths, with 60-93% of the remaining areas being scree slopes and boulder fields. for this change to occur, the migration rate of the trees would be in the order of 23-221 m yr-1, which is well within published migration rates for wind-dispersed deciduous trees. the remaining alpine areas would be strongly fragmented. these drastic changes would influence all aspects of mountain ecosystems, including biodiversity conservation and human land-use patterns.
What should the coordination form? It must form united governments;
coordination should form joined-up govern ments
How are governments usually organized? They are usually organized by sector
governments are often organised sectorally
What is the separation of the environment? The environment is separate from health and health is separated from agriculture
environment is separate from health, and health is separate from agriculture
coordination should form joined-up govern ments. governments are often organised sectorally, segmented in specialised policy domains. environment is separate from health, and health is separate from agriculture. this is true at all levels of government, including internationally, where fragmentation and policy contradictions are a serious problem. who deals with health, whereas the world trade organization (wto) deals with trade. each is implicated in the adjustment process and their actions will need to be coordinated. responding to the health eff ects of climate change extends beyond the environmental sector, but also involves the health sector, which needs to have a major role in the discourse around climate change. other institutional challenges relate to power and politics.146 global governance is characterised by a lack of democratic accountability and profound inequalities. this is most obviously true for organisations such as private funding bodies, but it is also true of intergovernmental organisations, including un bodies and the world bank and the international monetary fund. although these organisations might operate to increase the accountability of states, to whom the relevant international organisations are accountable is not always clear. also, developing countries are under-represented.20 diffi cult choices will have to be made by these institutions in relation to climate change, and these decisions are intensely political with important distributive eff ects. international organisations are not blind to the need to respond to perceived accountability defi cits. the wto, for example, has recently opened its hearings to the public for the fi rst time. also, the world bank established an inspection panel in 1993 to address the concerns of people aff ected by the bank projects and to ensure that the bank adheres to its operational policies and procedures during the design, preparation, and implementation phases of projects. although these small steps have many limitations, they are an acknowledgment that good governance matters internationally and that a response to accountability problems is possible. an agenda for developing countries must be put in place through global cooperation. representation on global task forces to assess the health eff ects of climate change is heavily skewed in favour of institutions of developed countries. in poor countries, health assessments and climate science and health surveillance research are a priority. our ability to develop an eff ective and fair institutional framework to respond to climate change will need to consider market failures and the role of a powerful transnational corporate sector. whether in the policy domain of energy, food, water, or medicines, transnational corporations are important and mainly unaccountable entities. we will need to design institutions that are more responsive to the needs of the poor and less to the fi nancial demands of big businesses.147 we will also need to reduce population growth, and help developing nations to fund services that will ensure that children are born by choice, not chance.
simulation of mortality from exogenous disturbances can be represented by which three phases?
for simplicity, simulation of mortality from exogenous disturbances can be represented by three phases: initiation, spread, and effects
The initiation phrase is the start of a disturbance in which two areas?
the initiation phase is the start of a disturbance in time and space
Name two sources of primary ignition for a wildland fire
the primary ignition of a wildland fire depends on ignition source (e.g., lightning), fuel loading (amount and type of burnable biomass), fuel condition (i.e., moisture content), and ambient weather (e.g., temperature, wind
for simplicity, simulation of mortality from exogenous disturbances can be represented by three phases: initiation, spread, and effects. the initiation phase is the start of a disturbance in time and space, spread is the advancement of the disturbance agent across the simulation landscape or stand, and the effects phase is the direct and indirect consequences of the disturbance for the ecosystem components. a comprehensive simulation of all three phases is essential to predict tree mortality from exogenous disturbances. this section deals mostly with wildland fire and insects because they are common natural agents of exogenous mortality and probably represent the most complex vegetation-mortality interactions. 3.3.1. initiation more information is available on the spread and effects of a disturbance, depending on the agent, than on disturbance initiation. this is because initiation for most disturbances is a highly variable process governed by many fine to coarse scale factors. for example, the primary ignition of a wildland fire depends on ignition source (e.g., lightning), fuel loading (amount and type of burnable biomass), fuel condition (i.e., moisture content), and ambient weather (e.g., temperature, wind), all of which are highly variable in time and space. the obvious exceptions are man-caused disturbances such as harvesting that are mostly dependent on easily predicted vegetation characteristics. the onset of natural disturbances is also highly dependent on the condition of the entire landscape. for example, a landscape dominated by balsam fir stands may have a higher probability of experiencing a spruce budworm or tussock moth epidemic than a landscape with a mixed hardwood forest (stoszek et al., 1981).
How can missed alarms occur?
if abrupt transitions happen without underlying bifurcation
What is another they can occur?
when bifurcation is approaching
What is the worst case?
a high noise level could prevent the detection of any early warning signals
missed alarms can occur if abrupt transitions happen without underlying bifurcation (for example, noiseinduced transitions13), but they can also occur even when bifurcation is approaching, for several reasons. first, to achieve an early warning, the time it takes to find out proximity to a threshold must be shorter than the time in which noise would be expected to cause a system to change state (the 'mean first exit time'7). hence where internal variability in a system is high, it may exit its present state well before a bifurcation point is reached. the noise level can be taken account of, and early warning estimates adjusted accordingly53. however, in the worst case, a high noise level could prevent the detection of any early warning signals. second, existing tests of bifurcation early warning (table 1) are generally based on very gradual forcing of the systems in question, whereas human activities are forcing certain 'slow' parts of the climate system, for example, the ocean, ice sheets and biomes, faster than their internal dynamics allow them to respond. hence they will be lagging their equilibrium solutions and may be committed to much greater changes than are observed at present64. this means a dynamical model simulating transient behaviour will be needed to establish proximity to a threshold. also, for such 'slow' systems, a long record of their natural behaviour is needed to ascertain their slowest response timescale, but this demands longer palaeorecords than are available for, for example, the atlantic thc.
What is produced by C isotherm?
c isotherm in the tropics are well documented. these changes are already producing measurable ecological changes
Give some examples of studies documented which produce measurable ecological changes?
dozens of studies are documenting changes in phenology, species ranges, and ecology due to climate change. butterflies in north america have shifted northward in range, trees are blooming earlier in eastern europe, and tropical bird species are shifting their range upslope (hughes 2000). these changes will accelerate with climate change, resulting in serious future changes in biodiversity
In which study, the first regional modeling of climate-change effects on biodiversity hotspots reported?
the first regional modeling of climate-change effects on biodiversity hotspots, reported in the south africa country study
c isotherm in the tropics are well documented. these changes are already producing measurable ecological changes. dozens of studies are documenting changes in phenology, species ranges, and ecology due to climate change. butterflies in north america have shifted northward in range, trees are blooming earlier in eastern europe, and tropical bird species are shifting their range upslope (hughes 2000). these changes will accelerate with climate change, resulting in serious future changes in biodiversity. for example, the first regional modeling of climate-change effects on biodiversity hotspots, reported in the south africa country study, suggests major vegetation shifts in the succulent karoo and cape floristic region hotspots of south africa (rutherford et al. 1999). the highly diverse and endemic arid flora of the succulent karoo is projected to collapse southward under a scenario of doubled levels of carbon dioxide (co
What factors have shaped the diverse attitudes regarding responsibility for acting on climate change?
publics around the globe have formed diverse attitudes about responsibility that are strongly influenced by local cultural dynamics, religious dimensions, and ethics
Do those individuals that acknowledge a responsibility for climate change rely on action from their governments?
in neither case is this responsibility necessarily viewed as contingent on action from political actors or governments
What was the result of the focus group involving tourists?
when discussing individual responsibility for ghg emissions, tourists distinguished between their travel and their everyday life, with greater responsibility for mitigation perceived in everyday life
a number of small studies have examined how responsibility for acting on climate change is perceived by individuals. this research demonstrates that publics around the globe have formed diverse attitudes about responsibility that are strongly influenced by local cultural dynamics, religious dimensions, and ethics. in the mid-1990s, hinchliffe126--based on interviews with individuals in the united kingdom about an energy saving campaign--argued that appealing to individuals as the primary site of action is ineffective. more recent evidence suggests that some individuals openly acknowledge a moral75or civic84responsibility for acting on climate change. in neither case is this responsibility necessarily viewed as contingent on action from political actors or governments. in fact, a study of canadian individuals suggests that those who act on climate change do so because they feel let down by their government which is not committing to meaningful emission reductions.84a comparative study of british and swedish students, however, showed distinctly different assignments of responsibility for causing climate change (individual consumer behavior, policies, market structures, lifestyles) and resulting differing expectations of individual versus government actions to solve the problem.127 thus, while a higher percentage of british students than swedish students saw individuals as the main cause of global warming and government lagging far behind, youth from both countries put their hopes in the government to solve the problem.127 interestingly, a focus group-based study from new zealand found that when discussing individual responsibility for ghg emissions, tourists distinguished between their travel and their everyday life, with greater responsibility for mitigation perceived in everyday life.128the value of freedom to travel is firmly established in the minds of many tourists and limiting travel is considered unacceptable.128while these may seem like contradictory results, context-specific cognitive dissonance and its resolution could explain why there are situations in which individuals admit and act on a perceived responsibility and others in which they do not.129
How do aerosols affect the global radiation balance?
hrough their interactions with clouds by acting as nucleation sites for cloud droplets and ice crystals, known in this capacity as cloud condensation nuclei (ccn) or ice nuclei (in
What does the SS of a CCN depend on?
the critical ss of a would-be ccn depends on the initial particle size and also its hygroscopicity, a function of the particle composition
Which factors can be used to determine droplet number concentration?
therefore, aerosol number, size, and composition are all factors for determining the droplet number concentration of a cloud for a given environmental temperature and ss (18
aerosols also affect the global radiation balance indirectly through their interactions with clouds by acting as nucleation sites for cloud droplets and ice crystals, known in this capacity as cloud condensation nuclei (ccn) or ice nuclei (in), respectively. clouds and water vapor are the atmospheric constituents that most strongly interact with radiation, and thus, any change in clouds and cloud-water vapor cycling will significantly change the radiative budget of the globe and therefore the climate (1). cloud droplets grow by the diffusion and condensation of water vapor onto ccn in a vapor pressure equilibrium relationship described by extensions of the k"ohler theory (18). if the amount of water vapor in the environment exceeds a threshold value of supersaturation (ss), the droplet solution enters into an unstable growth regime and will rapidly grow to cloud droplet size (diameter ~ 4 to 30 m m). the critical ss of a would-be ccn depends on the initial particle size and also its hygroscopicity, a function of the particle composition. hygroscopicity is a measure of a particle's ability to reduce the equilibrium vapor pressure above a droplet when in solution, thus enhancing the diffusion of vapor toward the droplet. therefore, aerosol number, size, and composition are all factors for determining the droplet number concentration of a cloud for a given environmental temperature and ss (18). however, ss fluctuates over small spatialscalesandisitselfdependentonthenumber of cloud droplets that form because cloud droplet formation depletes the available water vapor, introducing a negative feedback into the system. in modeling studies in which the environmental conditions are strongly constrained, the fraction of aerosols that can act as ccn (the
What is the approximate area of the floodplain delta?
the floodplain delta covers an area of approximately ten thousand hectares
What is the main crop that is farmed in almost three quarters of the land?
almost three quarters of the land is used for farming, mainly rice
What is quantitative effect on the labour force of having around two thirds of the area under six feet water for more than half of the rain season?
around 80 percent of the labour force is unemployed during the flood season
the case study is carried out in a low-lying, severely flood prone fluvial delta located in the south-east of bangladesh in the district of homna, approximately 70 km from dhaka. the floodplain delta covers an area of approximately ten thousand hectares and is bordered in the north-west by the meghna river, its tributaries the titas river in the north and south and the kathalia river in the west (figure 3.1). more than four hundred thousand people live in the area (2001 population census). most of them are farmers. almost three quarters of the land is used for farming, mainly rice. other crops include wheat, vegetables, pulses, oil seeds and maize. some livestock farming is also present, but on a very small scale. communities of fishermen are found along the rivers. furthermore, many creeks and canals are found in the area, which are also utilized for fishing. the area's topography varies between 1.5 and 4.0 meter above sea level. average annual rainfall is 2,025 ml of which 75% falls during the monsoon from june to october. heavy monsoon rainfall generates excessive flows in the rivers and thereby causes floods almost every year. these floods cause damage to houses, agricultural crops and the infrastructure in the area. for more than half of the rain season around two thirds of the area roy brouwer et al. 5 remains under six feet water. as a result, employment opportunities decrease dramatically. around 80 percent of the labour force is unemployed during the flood season.
What is the origin of the word project?
the word project has its origins in the latin projectum 'something thrown forth' from which the current meaning of a plan, draft or scheme arises
What is the meaning of the word project?
it would seem that the meaning, now common across the world, of a project as a special assignment carried out by a person, initially a student, but now almost anyone, is first recorded in 1916
Is it obvious that we live in a proj ectified world?
as soon as you think about it, it becomes patently obvious that we live in a pro jectified world
as soon as you think about it, it becomes patently obvious that we live in a pro jectified world. i can hardly remember a time when a project was not part of what i did - whether at school or throughout my professional life. the word project has its origins in the latin projectum 'something thrown forth' from which the current meaning of a plan, draft or scheme arises. it would seem that the meaning, now common across the world, of a project as a special assignment carried out by a person, initially a student, but now almost anyone, is first recorded in 1916 2 from that beginning i am not really sure how we came to live with projects in the manner that led simon bell and stephen morse 5 to speak of a 'projectified world order'. perhaps mass education carried forth the project into all walks of life? whatever this history, my experience suggests it is no longer tenable in a climate changing world to have almost all that we do 'framed' by our invention of 'the project'.12
What was the lack of information included in the input barriers?
input barriers included lack of information, i.e., insufficient data to predict likely climate impacts at the individual unit level and then translate that information into an adaptation strategy; lack of resources, i.e., insufficient budget and staff time to plan for and implement adaptation in addition to current workload; and potential public opposition, i.e., insufficient public and stakeholder support to implement adaptation
What does informal institutional barriers include?
informal institutional barriers included internal inertia to change and partners' inertia to change, which refers to difficulty changing traditional ways of thinking about resource management, within both the agencies themselves and their partner agencies
How many laws did the participants identify?
in total, participants identified nine laws and described their perception of how the laws enabled or impeded their ability to implement climate change adaptation (fig. 4a and 4b
note: responses were coded according to type of perceived barrier described. input barriers included lack of information, i.e., insufficient data to predict likely climate impacts at the individual unit level and then translate that information into an adaptation strategy; lack of resources, i.e., insufficient budget and staff time to plan for and implement adaptation in addition to current workload; and potential public opposition, i.e., insufficient public and stakeholder support to implement adaptation. informal institutional barriers included internal inertia to change and partners' inertia to change, which refers to difficulty changing traditional ways of thinking about resource management, within both the agencies themselves and their partner agencies. formal institutional barriers included internal operating procedures, i.e., agencies' formal rules and decision making processes; external environmental laws, i. e., existing legal constraints; and ownership mosaic, i.e., ecosystem boundaries span multiple jurisdictions with different rules and management objectives. responses described laws as both barriers to and enablers of adaptation. a few respondents (16%), primarily from one nps unit (north cascades national park), but representing all levels of the agency hierarchy, perceived ownership mosaics to be formal institutional barriers given that different jurisdictions operate under different rules. external environmental laws as barriers and enablers of adaptation we asked participants about the extent to which environmental laws allowed climate change adaptation planning and project implementation. respondents were encouraged to discuss whichever laws they deemed important. in total, participants identified nine laws and described their perception of how the laws enabled or impeded their ability to implement climate change adaptation (fig. 4a and 4b). notably, there was little variance in responses between units and between levels within an agency's hierarchy. we coded laws as enablers when participants described a law as, at a minimum, not hindering their ability to plan for and implement adaptation, or at best, as helpful in incorporating climate change considerations into management decisions. responses were classified as barriers when participants described the laws as reducing their flexibility to implement adaptation according
What is a cause of global warming?
man-made emissions
What is one thing this paper summarizes?
some of the main reports of impacts of various projections of climate change on australian agriculture
What is climate change projected to do?
underpin the creation of economic impacts
research and commentary on climate change is topical. there is widespread evidence for global warming (pittock 2003) and the theory of greenhouse warming attributable to man-made emissions has been known for over a century (ausubel 1983). however, in spite of the general but not unanimous consensus that climate change is occurring or is likely to occur, there is a wide range of views about the nature of the climate change that will unfold (cline 1992, ipcc 2001a, mckibbin and wilcoxen 2002). this paper summarises some of the main reports of impacts of various projections of climate change on australian agriculture. the paper also highlights the key characteristics of projected climate change that will underpin the creation of economic impacts. then the paper examines the nature of broadacre agriculture in australia, arguing that its character helps agricultural industries to respond to climate change in a way that either lessens adverse impacts or helps capitalise on favourable changes in climate. finally the paper offers some concluding remarks.
WHAT IS MOTIVATING THE ADAPTATION SYSTEM ?
this adaptation may be motivated by the impact of more frequent precipitation extremes (the stimulus) on transport safety
ARE ALL ACTIVITIES ACTION?
not all activities of an operator are actions
WHO CAN BE AN OPERATOR?
an operator can be, for example, a private household, a firm or a governmental actor
the following example of an adaptation illustrates the different concepts introduced so far. consider a public early warning system that informs about upcoming extreme weather conditions (say, heavy rain) that increase the risk of using specific modes of transport (e.g. travelling by car, bicycle or by foot). this adaptation may be motivated by the impact of more frequent precipitation extremes (the stimulus) on transport safety. the exposure units are users of the above-mentioned modes of transportation. in our framework, the individual or collective actor that exercises the response is called the operator we need this distinct term, since actors will also play other roles in this framework (see below). an operator can be, for example, a private household, a firm or a governmental actor. but in all cases it is a social entity, so that machines, artifacts and natural systems are ruled out as operators. not all activities of an operator are actions. only those activities with a purpose qualify for this term. the operator tries to achieve intended ends that are associated with (other) actors, social or non-human systems. the ends are ultimately targeted at impacts (see below for a further discussion of this statement). 6
What is the importance of policies and actions in relation to improved food security?
improved food security under climate change requires policies and actions both to make food systems more resilient to climatic variability and change and to mitigate ghg emissions and other climate forcing
What are three areas that are currently the focus of major global learning processes?
synergistic accomplishment of the goals of food security, adaptation, and mitigation in food systems, illustrated in figure 4 is currently the focus of major global learning processes, for example, under the rubric of climate-smart agriculture (116
When do net mitigation effects occur?
for instance, net mitigation effects only occur if greater on-farm efficiency does not displace emissions to other parts of the landscape or food chain
coordinated actions are required for climate change adaptation and mitigation in food systems. improved food security under climate change requires policies and actions both to make food systems more resilient to climatic variability and change and to mitigate ghg emissions and other climate forcing. synergistic accomplishment of the goals of food security, adaptation, and mitigation in food systems, illustrated in figure 4 is currently the focus of major global learning processes, for example, under the rubric of climate-smart agriculture (116). but major trade-offs must also be navigated, most importantly the capacity of agriculture to mitigate its substantial contribution to global ghg emissions versus its capacity to supply a growing demand for food (5). as described below for both adaptation and mitigation, specific technical and policy interventions must be situated within a broader holistic approach to agricultural and food system management. for instance, net mitigation effects only occur if greater on-farm efficiency does not displace emissions to other parts of the landscape or food chain. likewise, mitigation and adaptation actions need to be balanced against other environmental and social services, such as water-use efficiency or equitable access to wild resources held in common property. sustained investment in institutions needs to underpin any technical interventions to manage the interactions between food systems and climate change (117). key areas for investment include management and extension of knowledge and information at all levels (11, 20), intellectual property rights over emerging technologies (16), financial services (107, 118), and input and product markets, including markets for
Why must nurse worker bees consume enough pollen?
nurse worker bees must consume enough pollen to feed the larvae through their pharyngeal glands
How does rain affect acacia flowers' appeal to honey bees?
when acacia flowers are washed by rain, they are no longer attractive to honey bees
What is one negative effect of a pollen shortage induced by autumn drought?
a pollen shortage induced by autumn drought will have the effect of depriving bees in winter, weakening their immune system and making them more susceptible to pathogens, and shortening their lifespan
climate influences flower development and nectar and pollen production, which are directly linked with colonies' foraging activity and development (42). bees must build up sufficient honey stores to enable them to survive the winter. the nurse worker bees must consume enough pollen to feed the larvae through their pharyngeal glands. a major effect of climate change on honey bees stems from changes in the distribution of the flower species (38) on which the bees depend for food. will plants be able to survive the rapid advent of drought conditions or, on the contrary, wetter seasons? if they can, will conditions be optimal for flowers to produce the nectar and pollen needed for honey bees to develop? although we do not know the precise impact that these factors could have on honey bees in a context of climate change, there is a large body of data at our disposal indicating that environmental changes have a direct influence on honey bee development. we are aware of the impact that rain can have on honey harvesting by bees. for instance, when acacia flowers are washed by rain, they are no longer attractive to honey bees (fig. 4) as it dilutes their nectar too much. likewise, an overly dry climate will reduce the production of flower nectar for honey bees to harvest: lavender flowers produce no nectar when the weather is too dry, which makes harvesting by bees a largely hypothetical matter. in extreme situations, honey bees can die of starvation unless the beekeeper is vigilant (fig. 5). the honeydew produced by stinging insects from certain plant species is also climate-dependent. in alsace, very special conditions are required for the development and growth of balsam fir aphid populations, whose honeydew is highly attractive to honey bees (16). on the other hand, certain types of honeydew cause dysentery in honey bees. what effects will climate change have on honeydew production? the food shortages stemming from an excessively dry climate, which reduces pollen production and impoverishes its nutritional quality, are currently the subject of much debate (36). honey bees that are born in autumn spend the entire winter in the hive and form the backbone of the colony in spring. a pollen diet is very important for rearing the future workers (23). a pollen shortage induced by autumn drought will have the effect of depriving bees in winter, weakening their immune system and making them more susceptible to pathogens, and shortening their lifespan. tropical climates may evolve towards more distinct seasons with dry periods. in this case, asian honey bees would need to rapidly step up their honey-harvesting strategy to amass sufficient stores to survive periods without flowers. or else they could develop a migration strategy, as has apis dorsata a giant honey bee of the apis genus. apis dorsata colonies build their nests in the open air, consisting of a very big, single comb of up to two metres in length. apis dorsata tend to be gregarious, which gives them a distinct advantage in the joint defence of their nests against predators. apis dorsata honey bees readily migrate in response to seasons, flowering patterns or disruption. they abandon their nests and can fly distances of up to 200 kilometres to escape starvation or predators. after leaving their nests unoccupied for several months (or in some cases one or two years) the same honey bee colony returns
What derived the relative abundance and species richness for the rainforest bird fauna were derived from what?
relative abundance and species richness for the rainforest bird fauna were derived from standardized bird surveys
How many people were necessary for conducting a research on the relative abundance and species richness for the rainforest bird fauna?
surveys were undertaken by two persons (one observer and one data recorder) walking for 30 min along a 150-m transect through the rainforest perpendicular to the track, using both visual observations and bird calls to identify species
When were the surveys contucted?
surveys were conducted between the years 2000-02 during the late dry and wet seasons (september to april), that is the time of year when the majority of the wet tropics rainforestbird species (including migratory species) are known to breed, thus maximizing the likelihood that surveys were conducted during periods of peak activity and calling
relative abundance and species richness for the rainforest bird fauna were derived from standardized bird surveys. at each site, surveys were conducted at six points spaced at least 200 m apart to maximize independence. surveys were undertaken by two persons (one observer and one data recorder) walking for 30 min along a 150-m transect through the rainforest perpendicular to the track, using both visual observations and bird calls to identify species. as much care as possible was taken to avoid doublecounting of calling individuals. observers were randomly rotated with all observers surveying all sites, therefore removing any systematic observer bias in the abundance counts across the gradient. surveys were conducted between the years 2000-02 during the late dry and wet seasons (september to april), that is the time of year when the majority of the wet tropics rainforestbird species (including migratory species) are known to breed, thus maximizing the likelihood that surveys were conducted during periods of peak activity and calling. counts were repeated between three and six times at each point over the period of the study, giving a total of 359 counts. a total of 101 species were recorded from the standardized surveys. surveys were only conducted if environmental conditions on the day were suitable to ensure that daily conditions did not bias the results, for example, no surveys were conducted in rain or strong winds.
What kind of a model MERGE is?
alan s. manne, stanford university richard g. richels, epri june 2004 merge is a model for estimating the regional and global effects of greenhouse gas reductions
What are the sub models MERGE contains ?
merge contains submodels governing: the domestic and international economy energy-related emissions of greenhouse gases non-energy emissions of ghg's global climate change - market and non-market damages each region's domestic economy is viewed as a ramsey-solow model of optimal longterm economic growth
Can MERGE be operated in a 'cost-effective' mode ?
merge may be operated in a "cost-effective" mode supposing that international negotiations lead to a time path of emissions that satisfies a constraint on concentrations or on temperature change
alan s. manne, stanford university richard g. richels, epri june 2004 merge is a model for estimating the regional and global effects of greenhouse gas reductions. it quantifies alternative ways of thinking about climate change. the model is sufficiently to flexible to explore alternative views on a wide range of contentious issues: costs of abatement, damages from climate change, valuation and discounting. merge contains submodels governing: the domestic and international economy energy-related emissions of greenhouse gases non-energy emissions of ghg's global climate change - market and non-market damages each region's domestic economy is viewed as a ramsey-solow model of optimal longterm economic growth. intertemporal choices are strongly influenced by the choice of a "utility" discount rate. price-responsiveness is introduced through a top-down production function. output depends upon the inputs of capital, labor and energy. energy-related emissions are projected through a bottom-up perspective. separate technologies are defined for each source of electric and nonelectric energy. fuel demands are estimated through "process analysis". each period's emissions are translated into global concentrations and in turn to the impacts on mean global indicators such as temperature change. merge may be operated in a "cost-effective" mode supposing that international negotiations lead to a time path of emissions that satisfies a constraint on concentrations or on temperature change. the model may also be operated in a "benefit-cost" mode choosing a time path of emissions that maximizes the discounted utility of consumption, after making allowance for the disutility of climate change. individual geopolitical regions are defined. abatement choices are distinguished by "where" (in which region?), "when" (in which time period?) and "what" (which greenhouse gas to abate?). there may be tradeoffs between equity and efficiency in these choices.
Why is it possible to trace the quantitative increase in skill over time of weather forecasts?
it is possible to trace the quantitative increase in skill over time because forecasts have been evaluated against observations in a consistent manner for decades
What is the standard verification system defined by the  World Meteorological Organization?
the world meteorological organization, for example, defines a ''standard verification system'' (svs) which is a set of low-order statistics measuring forecast skill that operational forecasting centers compute monthly and share with one another
Why do analyses not useful for verification?
analyses are not useful for verification, either, because observations of clouds and broadband radiation are not used by operational assimilation systems, so that cloudand radiation-related quantities are only loosely constrained in the resulting analyses
global numerical weather forecasts have been made operationally since 1979 and have improved steadily since their advent kalnay et al. 1998; simmons and hollingsworth 2002]. it is possible to trace the quantitative increase in skill over time because forecasts have been evaluated against observations in a consistent manner for decades. the world meteorological organization, for example, defines a ''standard verification system'' (svs) which is a set of low-order statistics measuring forecast skill that operational forecasting centers compute monthly and share with one another world meteorological association 2007]. skill is measured against both raw observations (typically radiosondes) and against the analysis produced after the fact for the forecast time. weather forecast assessment is primarily focused on the large-scale flow: only temperatures, winds, sea level pressure, and geopotential height are part of the standard verification system. in particular, no information is formally exchanged between centers about forecasts of clouds, radiation, or precipitation (though centers may verify precipitation forecasts internally). clouds and radiation are neglected in part because verification is difficult: these fields are much more spatially and temporally variable than winds, temperature, and pressure, so measurements made at individual points are less representative of the grid-column mean produced by the forecast. analyses are not useful for verification, either, because observations of clouds and broadband radiation are not used by operational assimilation systems, so that cloudand radiation-related quantities are only loosely constrained in the resulting analyses. in addition, though the distribution of clouds, radiation, and precipitation may be of importance for specific applications, it has a minor impact on the shortto medium-term evolution of the flow on which forecast skill scores are based. unlike weather forecasts, the climate models used to make long-term projections have not been subject to uniform assessment over time. climate model evaluation is, in some ways, more difficult than assessing the skill of
Where have population extinctions been found?
southern and low-elevation range edges in response to recent climate warming, resulting in contraction of species' ranges at these warm boundaries, as well as by extinctions of many species
What was Lynch Lande do to help species-level evolution?
used a genetic model to infer rates of environmental change that would allow populations to respond adaptively
Is there evidence for change in the absolute climate tolerances of a species?
these observations indicate that, although local evolutionary responses to climate change have occurred with high frequency, there is no evidence for change in the absolute climate tolerances of a species
for species-level evolution to occur, either appropriate novel mutations or novel genetic architecture (new gene complexes) would have to emerge to allow a response to selection. lynch lande (1993) used a genetic model to infer rates of environmental change that would allow populations to respond adaptively. however, travis futuyma (1993)-discussing the same question from broad paleontological, population, genetic, and ecological perspectives-highlighted the complexity of predicting future responses from currently known processes. fifteen years later, answers still lie very much in empirical observations. these observations indicate that, although local evolutionary responses to climate change have occurred with high frequency, there is no evidence for change in the absolute climate tolerances of a species. this view is supported by the disproportionate number of population extinctions documented along southern and low-elevation range edges in response to recent climate warming, resulting in contraction of species' ranges at these warm boundaries, as well as by extinctions of many species.
What do experiments with limited area models suggest about predicting the wind structure of a storm?
experimentswithlimitedareamodels (shen et al., 2006) suggest that a resolution of a few kilometres is probably required to model and predict the dynamics of the core and consequently the extreme wind structure of the centre of the storm
Using the condition for a typical warm core TC, around how many cyclones for resolutions in the range T159-T319 occur per year?
using the condition (6, 6, 4) for a typical warm core tc the number of cyclones for resolutions in the range t159-t319 is around 100 per year with a standard deviation of 10-12
Emanuel (1988) and Holland (1997) estimate optimal conditions for cyclone development based on which measurements?
under such situations the optimum conditions as estimated by emanuel (1988) and holland (1997) could be considered as an upper limit in calculating the maximum condition in wind speed and vorticity and minimum condition in surface pressure
during the period of a long integration favourable conditions for cyclone development are likely to occur by chance. under such situations the optimum conditions as estimated by emanuel (1988) and holland (1997) could be considered as an upper limit in calculating the maximum condition in wind speed and vorticity and minimum condition in surface pressure. the result here is highly dependent on horizontal resolution with a gradual intensification as the grid distance is reduced. using the condition (6, 6, 4) for a typical warm core tc the number of cyclones for resolutions in the range t159-t319 is around 100 per year with a standard deviation of 10-12. however, the number of weaker tc decrease and the intense tc increase as we successively increase resolution (fig. 15a). but even at the highest resolution tested here the detailed structure of the core of the cyclone cannotbecorrectlysimulated.experimentswithlimitedareamodels (shen et al., 2006) suggest that a resolution of a few kilometres is probably required to model and predict the dynamics of the core and consequently the extreme wind structure of the centre of the storm.
Where and what creates the level of energy?
in the aerated lagoon, the level of energy introduced by the aerators creates a turbulence
What leaves the effluent from the sedimentation pond?
the effluent from the sedimentation pond leaves with a lower solids level and can be discharged directly into the receiving body
in the aerated lagoon, the level of energy introduced by the aerators creates a turbulence that, besides guaranteeing the oxygenation, still allows all the solids to be maintained dispersed in the liquid medium. therefore, the denomination complete-mix lagoon is due to the high degree of energy per unit of volume, responsible for the total mixing of the constituents in the whole pond. these lagoons are also called flow-through lagoons in the sense that the liquid and the solids all flow together in the pond (without solids retention), resulting from the high mixing level. another designation is cstr lagoons (completely-stirred tank reactor). amongst the solids maintained in suspension and in complete mixing are included, besides the organic matter from the raw sewage, also the bacteria (biomass). consequently, there is a larger concentration of bacteria in the liquid medium, together with a greater organic matter biomass contact. thus, the efficiency of the aerobic pond increases, also allowing a reduction in its volume. the aerated lagoon acts in a similar way to the aeration tanks of the activated sludge process. the main difference is the absence of the recirculation of solids, an essential characteristic of the activated sludge process. owing to the absence of the recirculation, the concentration of the biomass only reaches a certain value, which is dictated by the availability of the influent substrate (bod load). the concentration of biological suspended solids in the aerated lagoon is in the order of 20 to 30 times less than in the reactor of activated sludge systems, which justifies the high efficiency of the latter. however, in spite of the good efficiency of the aerated lagoons in the removal of the organic matter originally present in the wastewater, the quality of their effluent is not satisfactory for direct discharge into the receiving body. the biomass stays in suspension in the whole pond volume, and therefore leaves with the effluent from the aerated lagoon. this biomass is also organic matter, although of a different nature from the bod of the raw sewage. if this organic matter generated in the lagoon is discharged into the receiving body, it will also exert an oxygen demand, causing the deterioration of the water quality. therefore, a downstream unit is needed, in which the suspended solids (predominantly the biomass) can settle. in the present case, this unit is represented by a sedimentation pond (in the activated sludge process, it is the secondary 566 stabilisation ponds sedimentation tank). the effluent from the sedimentation pond leaves with a lower solids level and can be discharged directly into the receiving body.
How should the planning for adaptation begin?
by identifying the key points of intervention
Then, followed by what?
by detailed risk assessments to inform development planning and operations
What would be the result?
a suitable mix of incremental changes to regular development activities, modifications in national policies, and direct adaptation investments
there is a clear case for mainstreaming climate risk management. we propose a sequential approach: planning for adaptation should begin by identifying the key points of intervention, followed by detailed risk assessments to inform development planning and operations. this would be designed to result in a suitable mix of incremental changes to regular development activities, modifications in national policies, and direct adaptation investments. in order to achieve such a balanced and well-targeted effort, adaptation should not be supply-driven or forced from top down. instead, it has to become a normal part of regular activities, in the bank's client countries, in the bank's plans, and in its operations. that in turn requires higher awareness of the need for adaptation, and better tools for climate risk management. we here propose that a set of tools be developed and presented which will help identify opportunities for climate risk reduction. these should not be seen as rigid safeguard policies, but as an opportunity and a means to improve the bank's work by enhancing poverty reduction and increasing the rate of return of bank investments. (incidentally, better climate risk identification, and better climate risk management information will also make it easier to access funds for climate risk management, including the emerging climate funds under the unfccc). given that climate risks are so sectorand country(or even location-) specific, the identification and management of climate risks has to be undertaken as an integral part of country strategic planning and project development, by country teams and task managers. the proposed tools would provide them with a quick sense of whether climate risks might be important (awareness raising), and an impression of how to start assessing and, where needed, addressing climate risks. while our risk management proposals focus on climate change and thus also on current climate variability and extremes, it could relatively easily be extended to include other natural hazards, including earthquakes, volcanoes and tsunamis. in a development context it makes sense to broaden the risk category in this way, even though it goes beyond the boundaries of the unfccc.
What is the  scope of the study mentioned in the paragraph?
our main aim is to shed light on what cdp can and cannot bring as an avenue of disclosure that is specifically aimed at climate change
What does the study  particularly elaborate ?
in our analysis we use the conceptual framework developed above and particularly elaborate on the concept of commensuration to understand the role of carbon disclosure in the emerging climate regime
What is the  the goal of CDP, as stated on its website?
as stated on its website, the goal of cdp is "to create a lasting relationship between shareholders and corporations regarding the implications for shareholder value and commercial operations presented by climate change
to provide a closer look at carbon disclosure and reporting mechanisms, we analyse the process of disclosure as this occurs through the carbon disclosure project (cdp). our main aim is to shed light on what cdp can and cannot bring as an avenue of disclosure that is specifically aimed at climate change. we question to what extent carbon disclosure initiatives such as the cdp provide information that is valuable for investors, ngos, and policymakers. in other words, does cdp provide satisfactory information on the linkages between corporate climate change strategies, financial performance, and ghg emissions reductions to enable such stakeholders to make decisions regarding a firm? in our analysis we use the conceptual framework developed above and particularly elaborate on the concept of commensuration to understand the role of carbon disclosure in the emerging climate regime. as we already mentioned, the carbon disclosure project (cdp) has concentrated on requesting annual information from firms around the world on ghg emissions, in the process raising both corporate and investor awareness. as stated on its website, the goal of cdp is "to create a lasting relationship between shareholders and corporations regarding the implications for shareholder value and commercial operations presented by climate change." moreover, cdp wants to "facilitate a
Is the article protected?
this article is protected by copyright. all rights reserved. relationship between crops and livestock in the landscape in many places
What is an alternative to cropping in places where crop production becomes marginal?
in places that will become increasingly marginal for crop production, livestock may provide an alternative to cropping
What continent(s) could these crop alternatives help?
such transitions could occur in up to 3% of the total area of africa, largely as a result of increases in the probability of season failure in the drier mixed crop-livestock systems of the continent; these are projected to increase from the current rate of approximately one year in 5 to one year in 4 or 3, depending on the combination of emissions scenario and climate model used (jones and thornton, 2009
this article is protected by copyright. all rights reserved. relationship between crops and livestock in the landscape in many places. in places that will become increasingly marginal for crop production, livestock may provide an alternative to cropping. such transitions could occur in up to 3% of the total area of africa, largely as a result of increases in the probability of season failure in the drier mixed crop-livestock systems of the continent; these are projected to increase from the current rate of approximately one year in 5 to one year in 4 or 3, depending on the combination of emissions scenario and climate model used (jones and thornton, 2009).
In what way the distributions of interacting species often are represented whether used as a predictor or in post proccesing?
whether used as a predictor or in post-processing, the distributions of interacting species often are represented merely as binary maps
other challenges exist for incorporating the effects of biotic interactions. foremost, progress is needed in determining how to consider the effects of biotic interactors that cannot be used as predictors (i.e., that do not constitute scenopoetic variables; table 5). in some cases, using them only in postprocessing may be reasonable.27in contrast, other biotic interactions may prove feasible and appropriate for inclusion only in models of eltonian niches relevant at local scales. additionally, whether used as a predictor or in post-processing, the distributions of interacting species often are represented merely as binary maps. continuous (ideally probabilistic) representations of biotic interactors represent a substantial step forward but should be at least proportional to probabilities of occurrence (or, ideally, abundance estimates),92,93rather than merely toprobabilitiesof suitability --sincethespeciesmust truly be present in order to interact with the focal species. finally, similar to the situation with remotely sensed variables mentioned above, the use of biotic interactors as predictors will require projections of the distributions of those species in the future (notably, of their occupied future distributions, not merely the areas suitable for them in the future). these complications illustrate the serious complexity of integrating information from various classes of driving factors to make realistic predictions of species distributions in the future. genetic adaptation across space and time overwhelmingly, recent studies transferring niche models assume that no niche differentiation exists across the species' range, or over time. for some species, the causal factors limiting the distribution have been shown to differ across range margins (e.g., poleward versus equatorial; or upper versus lower elevational limits).43,94more importantly, in some documented cases, genetic variation among populations corresponds to traits that directly affect range boundaries or that influence their response to climatic change.95,96complementarily, the burgeoning literature assessing niche evolution versus conservatism highlights the fact that, at least over longer time spans, species niches indeed evolve.97key outstanding questions include how often, how substantially, how quickly, under what conditions, and how predictably niches evolve.98-102
What are some of the most significant climate challenges?
the most significant challenges would result from increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events, such as floods, droughts and storms
What have researchers been recommending?
researchers recommend focusing on actions that enhance our capacity to adapt and improve our understanding of key vulnerabilities
What are the uncertainties associated with climate change projections?
there is uncertainty in climate change projections (degree and rate of change in temperature, precipitation and other climate factors), imperfect understanding of how systems would respond, uncertainty concerning how people would adapt, and difficulties involved in predicting future changes in supply and demand
to date, the majority of impacts and adaptation research has focused on the biophysical impacts of climate change. much of this research suggests that the most significant challenges would result from increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events, such as floods, droughts and storms. extreme events, as well as rapid climate change, can cause critical thresholds to be exceeded, often with severe or catastrophic consequences. in contrast, given appropriate adjustments, many systems should be able to cope with, and at times even benefit from, gradual temperature warming of limited magnitude. for example, in some regions, higher temperatures could enhance plant growth rates, decrease road maintenance costs and reduce deaths from extreme cold. a recurring issue in the field of climate change impacts and adaptation is uncertainty. there is uncertainty in climate change projections (degree and rate of change in temperature, precipitation and other climate factors), imperfect understanding of how systems would respond, uncertainty concerning how people would adapt, and difficulties involved in predicting future changes in supply and demand. given the complexity of these systems, uncertainty is unavoidable, and is especially pronounced at the local and regional levels where many adaptation decisions tend to be made. nonetheless, there are ways to deal with uncertainty in a risk management context, and most experts agree that present uncertainties do not preclude our ability to initiate adaptation. in all sectors, adaptation has the potential to reduce the magnitude of negative impacts and take advantage of possible benefits. researchers recommend focusing on actions that enhance our capacity to adapt and improve our understanding of key vulnerabilities. these strategies work best when climate change is integrated into larger decision-making frameworks. the following sections examine potential impacts of climate change and adaptation options for key sectors in canada, as reflected in scientific papers and reports published since 1997. it must be emphasized that these sectors are both interrelated and interdependent, in that adaptation decisions undertaken within one sector could have significant implications for other sectors. it is therefore important to coordinate adaptation activities between sectors.
How was the data collection developed and what means were used to carry out this research?
however, metrics of adaptive capacity have been developed at a range of scales, using widely available secondary data (e.g. yohe tol 2002; tompkins adger 2005). thus, depending on the particular topic under investigation, our framework may be applicable to situations where less intensive data collection and post-processing are required
What are the Environmental Susceptibility models based on?
likewise, map-based environmental susceptibility models are being increasingly developed at a range of scales (e.g., aragao et al. 2007, baettig et al. 2007
our framework is applicable to a wide range of social-ecological systems and stressors. the intensity of data collection and analysis required for our case study was high because adaptive capacity issues arising at the household and community scales are most relevant for this topic and region. however, metrics of adaptive capacity have been developed at a range of scales, using widely available secondary data (e.g. yohe tol 2002; tompkins adger 2005). thus, depending on the particular topic under investigation, our framework may be applicable to situations where less intensive data collection and post-processing are required. likewise, map-based environmental susceptibility models are being increasingly developed at a range of scales (e.g., aragao et al. 2007, baettig et al. 2007). our framework could also be extended to consider additional axes such as local impacts on ecosystems, the strength of governance systems, or the ability of ecosystems to provide goods and services.
What was argued?
we have argued that existing development models are based on flawed ideas about progress and human advancement, which derive from a misreading of human history and the origins of human civilisation, based on models which have been generally discredited within relevant academic fields
These models can be what?
these models can be 'maladaptive', in that they enhance vulnerability in the context of both normal climate variability and longerterm climate change
How are they suited to the twenty-first century?
they are therefore particularly poorly suited to the twenty-first century, which is likely to be characterised by large changes in climate and environment, including the possible collapse of vegetation systems in southern africa (thomas et al., 2005), extreme desiccation in the maghreb (christensen et al., 2007), the partial or total loss of the amazon rainforest (cox et al., 2005), extreme water stress 752 nick brooks, natasha grist and katrina brown
we have argued that existing development models are based on flawed ideas about progress and human advancement, which derive from a misreading of human history and the origins of human civilisation, based on models which have been generally discredited within relevant academic fields. importantly, the application of these models has increased societal vulnerability and reduced people's capacity to adapt to climatic and environmental variability and change. these models can be 'maladaptive', in that they enhance vulnerability in the context of both normal climate variability and longerterm climate change. they are therefore particularly poorly suited to the twenty-first century, which is likely to be characterised by large changes in climate and environment, including the possible collapse of vegetation systems in southern africa (thomas et al., 2005), extreme desiccation in the maghreb (christensen et al., 2007), the partial or total loss of the amazon rainforest (cox et al., 2005), extreme water stress 752 nick brooks, natasha grist and katrina brown
what is one way to understand the ways to control aerosols?
large-scale chemistry and transport models (ctms) are used to test current understanding of the processes controlling aerosol spatial and temporal distributions, including aerosol and precursor emissions, chemical and microphysical transformations, transport, and removal
what other ways can the affects of aerosols be studied
general circulation models (gcms), sometimes called global climate models, have the capability of including aerosol processes as a part of the climate system to estimate aerosol climate forcing, including aerosol-cloud interactions, and the climate response to this forcing
do the studies yield consistent results
greement across models appears to be a consequence of the use of very different aerosol forcing values, which compensates for the range of climate sensitivity
just as different types of aerosol observations serve similar purposes, diverse types of models provide a variety of approaches to understanding aerosol forcing of climate. large-scale chemistry and transport models (ctms) are used to test current understanding of the processes controlling aerosol spatial and temporal distributions, including aerosol and precursor emissions, chemical and microphysical transformations, transport, and removal. ctms are used to describe the global aerosol system and to make estimates of direct aerosol radiative forcing. in general, ctms do not explore the climate response to this forcing. general circulation models (gcms), sometimes called global climate models, have the capability of including aerosol processes as a part of the climate system to estimate aerosol climate forcing, including aerosol-cloud interactions, and the climate response to this forcing. another type of model represents atmospheric processes on much smaller scales, such as cloud resolving and large eddy simulation models. these smallscale models are the primary tools for improving understanding of aerosol-cloud processes, although they are not used to make estimates of aerosol-cloud radiative forcing on regional or global scales. es 3.1. the importance of aerosol radiative forcing in climate models calculated change of surface temperature due to forcing by anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosols was reported in ipcc ar4 based on results from more than 20 participating global climate modeling groups. despite a wide range of climate sensitivity (i.e. the amount of surface temperature increase due to a change in radiative forcing, such as an increase of co2) exhibited by the models, they all yield a global average temperature change very similar to that observed over the past century. this agreement across models appears to be a consequence of the use of very different aerosol forcing values, which compensates for the range of climate sensitivity. for example, the direct cooling effect of sulfate aerosol varied by a factor of six among the models. an even greater disparity was seen in the model treatment of black carbon and organic carbon. some models ignored aerosol indirect effects whereas others included large indirect effects. in addition, for those models that included the indirect effect, the aerosol effect on cloud brightness (reflectivity) varied by up to a factor of nine. therefore, the fact that models have reproduced the global temperature change in the past does not imply that their future forecasts are accurate. this state of affairs will remain until a firmer estimate of radiative forcing by aerosols, as well as climate sensitivity, is available. es 3.2. modeling atmospheric aerosols simulations of the global aerosol distribution by different models show good agreement in their representation of the global mean aod, which in general also agrees with satellite-observed values. however, large differences exist in model simulations of regional and seasonal distributions of aod, and in the proportion of aerosol mass attributed to individual species. each model uses its own estimates of aerosol and precursor emissions and configurations for chemical transformations, microphysical properties, transport, and deposition. multimodel experiments indicate that differences in the models' atmospheric processes play a more important role than differences in emissions in creating the diversity among model results. although aerosol mass concentration is the basic measure of aerosol loading in the models, this quantity is translated to aod via mass extinction efficiency in order to compare with observations and then to estimate aerosol direct rf. each model employs its own mass extinction efficiency based on limited knowledge of optical and physical properties of each aerosol type. thus, it is possible for the models to produce different distributions of aerosol loading as mass concentrations but agree in their distributions of aod, and vice-versa. model calculated total global mean direct anthropogenic aerosol rf at toa, based on the difference between pre-industrial and current
What did earlywood display in comparison to latewood?
earlywood displayed significantly lower vessel density, larger vessel diameters and lower total vessel lumen area and hydraulic conductivity than latewood
How big were the differences in vessel diameters?
the differences in vessel diameters were relatively small
The vessel density was significantly correlated to what?
the vessel density was significantly correlated to the radial diameter
earlywood and latewood were found to differ significantly in all the vessel variables studied. earlywood displayed significantly lower vessel density, larger vessel diameters and lower total vessel lumen area and hydraulic conductivity than latewood (table 1). however, the differences in vessel diameters were relatively small and exhibited a high standard deviation (fig. 3b,c, table 1). this indicated that both small and large vessels were present in earlywood and latewood. the difference in mean diameters was therefore a result of a higher percentage of small vessels produced during the dry season. the vessel density was significantly correlated to the radial diameter (pearson product moment correlation coefficient
Which species will cope better in future climates?
the linear relationship observed between the percentage of stable habitat and niche breadth indicates that species occupying a large range of climatic conditions should be the most tolerant to climate change
How do species with a narrow niche cope?
species with narrow niche breadth were predicted to lose a high proportion of their current habitat
Who said that species living in broad climatic conditions are more tolerant?
brown, 1995
it was expected that species that encounter a broader array of climatic conditions across their range would have broader tolerances to climate change than restricted species (brown, 1995). our analysis corroborated this expectation on the temperature gradient. the linear relationship observed between the percentage of stable habitat and niche breadth indicates that species occupying a large range of climatic conditions should be the most tolerant to climate change. however, these species were not predicted to gain large amounts of potential habitat because they could only expand their range within the limit of available habitats. as expected, species with narrow niche breadth were predicted to lose a high proportion of their current habitat if they occurred preferentially in cold and exposed parts of europe (swihart
Mention Aixue Hu,1CAPE Last Interglacial Project members In the future?
aixue hu,1cape last interglacial project members in the future, arctic warming and the melting of polar glaciers will be considerable, but the magnitude of both is uncertain
What are the model used?
we used a global climate model, a dynamic ice sheet model, and paleoclimatic data to evaluate northern hemisphere high-latitude warming and its impact on arctic icefields during the last interglaciation
What indicate that the Greenland Ice Sheet and other circum-Arctic ice fields?
our simulated climate matches paleoclimatic observations of past warming, and the combination of physically based climate and ice-sheet modeling with icecore constraints indicate that the greenland ice sheet and other circum-arctic ice fields likely contributed 2.2 to 3.4 meters of sea-level rise during the last interglaciation
aixue hu,1cape last interglacial project members in the future, arctic warming and the melting of polar glaciers will be considerable, but the magnitude of both is uncertain. we used a global climate model, a dynamic ice sheet model, and paleoclimatic data to evaluate northern hemisphere high-latitude warming and its impact on arctic icefields during the last interglaciation. our simulated climate matches paleoclimatic observations of past warming, and the combination of physically based climate and ice-sheet modeling with icecore constraints indicate that the greenland ice sheet and other circum-arctic ice fields likely contributed 2.2 to 3.4 meters of sea-level rise during the last interglaciation.
What does the the utility of the modified "cess" experiments do?
diagnose feedbacks
Changes in cloud feedbacks primarily occur in what two areas?
the tropics and midlatitudes
In perturbation experiments, what are less sensitive than those with thinner clouds ?
climate states with higher cloud forcing
this work highlights the evolution of climate sensitivity in cam from version 4 (3.2 k) to version 5 (4.0 k). it also highlights the utility of modified ''cess'' experiments to diagnose feedbacks. the increase in sensitivity is due to changes in co2 radiative forcing (40%) and most of the remainder is due to changes in cloud feedbacks. changes in cloud feedbacks primarily occur in the tropics and midlatitudes. changes to water vapor, lapse rate, and albedo feedbacks are not strong contributors to changes in global climate sensitivity between cam4 and cam5. several parameterizations contribute to cloud changes in the tropics and a reduction of negative feedbacks in the subtropics. the shallow cumulus scheme is important for enhancing positive cloud feedbacks in the subtropics and midlatitudes. the equatorward branches of the storm tracks and deep convective regions contribute most to the global change in cloud feedbacks. stratocumulus regions in the tropics and subtropics do not strongly contribute to the change in cloud feedbacks or climate sensitivity. further work will be necessary to understand the exact mechanisms that alter the climate sensitivity. these results hint at relationships between clouds and climate sensitivity. cam4 and cam5 span a wide range of structural parameterization differences. in perturbation experiments, climate states with higher cloud forcing are less sensitive than those with thinner clouds. this
What does decreasing surface albedo on Alpine glacier tongues leads to?
oerlemans and others (2009) showed that decreasing surface albedo on alpine glacier tongues leads to faster ablation
What may subglacial cavitation and the formation of proglacial lakes further increase the rate of?
subglacial cavitation and the formation of proglacial lakes (frey and others, 2010) may further increase the rate of terminus retreat
Why is the reason for supraglacial debris significantly reducing the melting of bare ice?
supraglacial debris is known to significantly reduce the melting of bare ice, due to its insulating properties
the rate of future glacier retreat is affected by a number of back-coupling mechanisms either enhancing or delaying glacier wastage. oerlemans and others (2009) showed that decreasing surface albedo on alpine glacier tongues leads to faster ablation. in addition, subglacial cavitation and the formation of proglacial lakes (frey and others, 2010) may further increase the rate of terminus retreat. one important feedback effect reducing glacier melt is the observed increasing debris coverage of an alpine glacier tongue due to its retreat (huss and others, 2007; jackson and fountain, 2007; kellerer-pirklbauer and others, 2008). supraglacial debris is known to significantly reduce the melting of bare ice, due to its insulating properties (e.g. kayastha and others,
How many countries scored "very good" in the CCPI 2014?
no country performed well enough to reach the category "very good" in the ccpi 2014
Did Germany reach top ten in this year's ranking?
germany for the first time dropped out of the top ten
Have the Netherland finally reached the "moderate group"?
this year, the netherlands reached the threshold, and almost managed to climb up to the "moderate" group
the ccpi 2014 results illustrate the main regional differences in climate protection performance within 58 countries across the world. although there are lower growth rates of the global co2 emissions that give reason to hope for a successful climate protection in the future, for now still no country performed well enough to reach the category "very good" in the ccpi 2014. whereas in the recent discussion, several climate experts see the eu losing its leading role regarding climate protection, this year's ranking still features 10 eu member states on top of the list, led by denmark, the uk and portugal. coming from rank 20 in the last year, morocco now joins the group of "good" performing countries. germany for the first time dropped out of the top ten and also mexico lost ground and left the leading group. these two find themselves in the category "moderate" together with other european states, such as italy, spain and norway, and are joined by egypt and india. within the group of "poor" performers, there are some interesting developments. for the first time the usa, china and poland managed to discard the label "very poor"-nevertheless they still have way to go before qualifying for the next upgrade. this year, the netherlands reached the threshold, and almost managed to climb up to the "moderate" group, what may well happen next year, if changes in its policy prove to be effective. "very poor" remain the performances of algeria and turkey as well as of some asian states, such as japan, and once more russia, australia and canada. very good good moderate poor very poor not included in assessment
Is it hard to pigeonhole a particular model?
it may sometimes be hard to pigeonhole a particular model
For the purpose of ensemble climate prediction what is important to consider?
for the purpose of ensemble climate prediction, it is important to consider what measures of climate change are the emergent properties of the model and what must be specified as, or trivially related to, an input parameter
What is another importante consideration?
another important consideration is whether the model is computationally cheap enough to produce a complete mapping of input parameters to output parameters, or does some novel sampling technique have to be employed
it may sometimes be hard to pigeonhole a particular model. for the purpose of ensemble climate prediction, it is important to consider what measures of climate change are the emergent properties of the model and what must be specified as, or trivially related to, an input parameter. in ebms, for example, it is usual to specify the climate sensitivity (the global mean temperature change for a doubling of atmospheric co2--a beloved measure of climate researchers), whereas for a gcm, the climate sensitivity is a function of the interaction between resolved and parameterized physical processes and cannot be specified a priori in the former case, it is possible to assume something about the distribution of the climate sensitivity, but in the latter case, it is not (or at least it is not easy). another important consideration is whether the model is computationally cheap enough to produce a complete mapping of input parameters to output parameters, or does some novel sampling technique have to be employed?
What you mean by flux signal?
the flux signal is said to be "amplified" ("dampened") compared to the respective climatic input if estflux met is positive
What you mean by amplification?
amplification or dampening need not imply causality in systems, like ecosystems, that respond to a range of factors; rather, the est is investigated to ascertain the simplest possible description of the instantaneous response of ecosystems to climate across scales of time
What is the use of EST?
the est is investigated to ascertain the simplest possible description of the instantaneous response of ecosystems to climate across scales of time
owtmet (1) the flux signal is said to be "amplified" ("dampened") compared to the respective climatic input if estflux met is positive (negative) (fig. 1: analysis i). we note that concepts and terminology from the signal processing literature, "amplifying", "dampening", "modulating", and "resonating" find a natural application when discussing eddy covariance measurements because the flux and meteorological variables are time-varying signals and ecosystems can be thought to process this signal in a corresponding, time-varying response (fig. 1). amplification or dampening need not imply causality in systems, like ecosystems, that respond to a range of factors; rather, the est is investigated to ascertain the simplest possible description of the instantaneous response of ecosystems to climate across scales of time. to investigate how climatic inputs and flux outputs coresonate and to test the hypothesis, we quantified the wavelet
How many items were used to assess perceptions of autonomy in the main analyses?
four items were used to assess perceptions of autonomy in the main analyses
Why was item 3 dropped?
item 3 was dropped from the autonomy scale as a result of low correlations with the other autonomy items and conceptual similarity to some of the items used to assess motivation ("i participate in p.e. because i want to"), which resulted in an alpha coefficient of .69
What did examination of variable means reveal?
examination of variable means revealed that students felt supported by their teachers and that their teachers emphasized learning and improvement in class
descriptive statistics, bivariate correlations, and internal consistencies are shown in table 2. all scales met the .70 criterion for internal consistency reliability (see nunnally, 1978), with the exception of the performance climate a .48) and perceived autonomy a .66) measures. performance climate was dropped from all subsequent analyses. item 3 was dropped from the autonomy scale as a result of low correlations with the other autonomy items and conceptual similarity to some of the items used to assess motivation ("i participate in p.e. because i want to"), which resulted in an alpha coefficient of .69. therefore, four items were used to assess perceptions of autonomy in the main analyses (two items were randomly selected to create each parcel). in addition, the internal consistency reliabilities of the four motivation subscales ranged from .72 to .90. examination of variable means revealed that students felt supported by their teachers and that their teachers emphasized learning and improvement in class. students also felt fairly competent participating in physical activities, felt socially related in class, and were more self-determined than non-self-determined in their motivation in physical education. they also felt that they lacked opportunities to choose the activities they wanted to participate in during class. bivariate correlations showed mostly positive relationships among variables.
Who supported the work?
this work was supported, in part, by us geological survey funds for climate research and, in part, by funds provided to t. huntington by nasa grants (nnh04aa66i and nnh08ai57i
With whom the work was produced?
this work was produced in collaboration with the northeastern states research cooperative, as a part of the ne forests 2100 project
To whom they want to thank?
we thank peter groffman (institute of ecosystem studies, millbrook, new york), justin sheffield (princeton university), and glenn hodgkins (us geological survey, augusta, maine, for their insights that contributed to the manuscript
this work was supported, in part, by us geological survey funds for climate research and, in part, by funds provided to t. huntington by nasa grants (nnh04aa66i and nnh08ai57i). this work was produced in collaboration with the northeastern states research cooperative, as a part of the ne forests 2100 project. we thank peter groffman (institute of ecosystem studies, millbrook, new york), justin sheffield (princeton university), and glenn hodgkins (us geological survey, augusta, maine, for their insights that contributed to the manuscript. we also thank all of the scientists who contributed to the climate and hydrologic analysis performed for the northeast climate impact analysis, whose collective works contributed to climate and hydrologic projections.
How high off the ground were the temperatures taken for these readings?
20 cm
c outdoor accuracy). the ambient temperature at the time each egg was laid was later calculated by linear interpolation between readings taken at 30-min intervals, throughout the day, at each site; these were recorded using a thermometer, permanently positioned out of direct sunlight, 20 cm above ground level. the uk meteorological office standardized air temperature measurements are taken 1*25 m above the ground, the thermometers being shielded from external radiation within louvered wooden white screen boxes (met office 2001). the uk meteorological office air temperature measurements are therefore likely to be considerably lower than the boundary-layer ambient temperatures recorded in this investigation (whether by data loggers or thermometers) and experienced by these butterflies, which are subject to greater heat radiation from the soil and vegetation surface.
What the quantitative evidence on the economic effects of the Kyoto Protocol is about
there is meanwhile an extensive literature providing quantitative evidence on the economic effects of the kyoto protocol (see weyant 1999 or unep 2001 for summary reports). however, this literature does not incorporate the most recent substantial changes in international climate politics, i.e. the u.s. withdrawal from the kyoto protocol and the provisions of the bonn conference on sink credits. the objective of this paper is to assess how the u.s
What is the withdrawal and amendments from the Bonn conference about?
withdrawal and the amendments of the bonn conference will change the economic and environmental impacts of the kyoto protocol in its original form. based on simulations with a large-scale computable general equilibrium model of global trade and energy use, our key findings can be summarized as follows: (i) non-compliance of the u.s. reduces environmental effectiveness of the kyoto protocol practically to zero if there are no restrictions to emission sales from russia, ukraine and eastern europe
there is meanwhile an extensive literature providing quantitative evidence on the economic effects of the kyoto protocol (see weyant 1999 or unep 2001 for summary reports). however, this literature does not incorporate the most recent substantial changes in international climate politics, i.e. the u.s. withdrawal from the kyoto protocol and the provisions of the bonn conference on sink credits. the objective of this paper is to assess how the u.s. withdrawal and the amendments of the bonn conference will change the economic and environmental impacts of the kyoto protocol in its original form. based on simulations with a large-scale computable general equilibrium model of global trade and energy use, our key findings can be summarized as follows: (i) non-compliance of the u.s. reduces environmental effectiveness of the kyoto protocol practically to zero if there are no restrictions to emission sales from russia, ukraine and eastern europe. in this case, the demand for emission permits of remaining oecd countries is sufficiently small to drive down the price of permits almost to zero given the large supply of surplus emission rights from russia, ukraine and eastern europe. in short, kyoto more or less boils down to business-as-usual without binding emission constraint. (ii) restrictions to emissions trading in order to avoid hot air makes global abatement for non-u.s. oecd countries rather costly. for strictly domestic abatement, the reduction in global emissions only amounts to a third of the value that would be achieved for
What are key components of being able to compare and synthesize data in multiple models?
defined scenarios are important, as using specific time series of emissions, land use, atmospheric concentrations or rf across multiple models allows for coherent climate model intercomparisons and synthesis
What makes Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) more comprehensive than other models of climate change?
some scenarios present a simple stylized future (not accompanied by a socioeconomic storyline) and are used for process understanding. more comprehensive scenarios are produced by integrated assessment models (iams) as internally consistent sets of emissions and socioeconomic assumptions (e.g., regarding population and socioeconomic development) with the aim of presenting several plausible future worlds (see section 1.5.2 and box 1.1
What are the climate change models used for?
in general it is these scenarios that are used for policy relevant climate change, impact, adaptation and mitigation analysis
long-term climate change projections reflect how human activities or natural effects could alter the climate over decades and centuries. in this context, defined scenarios are important, as using specific time series of emissions, land use, atmospheric concentrations or rf across multiple models allows for coherent climate model intercomparisons and synthesis. some scenarios present a simple stylized future (not accompanied by a socioeconomic storyline) and are used for process understanding. more comprehensive scenarios are produced by integrated assessment models (iams) as internally consistent sets of emissions and socioeconomic assumptions (e.g., regarding population and socioeconomic development) with the aim of presenting several plausible future worlds (see section 1.5.2 and box 1.1). in general it is these scenarios that are used for policy relevant climate change, impact, adaptation and mitigation analysis. it is beyond the scope of this report to consider the full range of currently published scenarios and their implications for mitigation policy and climate targets--that is covered by the working group iii contribution to the ar5. here, we focus on the rcp scenarios used within the cmip5 intercomparison exercise (taylor et al. 2012) along with the sres scenarios (ipcc, 2000) developed for the ipcc third assessment report (tar) but still widely used by the climate community.
which countries have serious threat to climate change?
climate change represents a serious threat for mesoamerican countries due to the multiple impacts predicted to directly affect the population as well as various sectors of the economy
what was suggested by yohe based on Vulnerability-Resilience Indicators?
the vulnerability-resilience indicators developed by yohe suggested high exposure to climate change for the mesoamerican and caribbean region climate projections indicate that increases in temperature will reduce crop yields in general and particularly those of arabica coffee, one of the region's major exports
how many percent has agriculture contributed to GDP in Latin america?
during the last 40 years, agriculture has contributed 10% of the gdp in latin american countries and is a major export earner
climate change represents a serious threat for mesoamerican countries due to the multiple impacts predicted to directly affect the population as well as various sectors of the economy the vulnerability-resilience indicators developed by yohe suggested high exposure to climate change for the mesoamerican and caribbean region climate projections indicate that increases in temperature will reduce crop yields in general and particularly those of arabica coffee, one of the region's major exports. arabica coffee responds strongly to seasonal temperature patterns and coffee of high quality requires relatively stable temperatures within a fairly narrow range la"derach and others predicted that optimal conditions for growing arabica coffee in mesoamerica will move from currently 800 to 1,400 m.a.s.l upwards to 1,200 to 1,600 m.a.s.l by 2050. studies in ethiopia and kenya have similarly foreseen significant impacts of climate change on the distribution of wild coffee and coffee pests in the later case extending the areas affected by coffee berry-borer. during the last 40 years, agriculture has contributed 10% of the gdp in latin american countries and is a major export earner. it is an important sector in the regional economy, since it employs 30% to 40% of the economically active population and is essential for the food security of the poorest segment of society across mexico and central america, over 4 million people depend directly on coffee production for their livelihoods according to cepal coffee production, purchasing, and processing employ an estimated 8.5 million people in the region. employment and income generation from coffee are particularly significant for many indigenous peoples in mexico and guatemala. the environmental services generated by shade coffee farms, including carbon sequestration, watershed services and the conservation of biodiversity, have also been highlighted by many
What do we use to describe the set of putative regulatory regions?
we use conserved nonexonic elements (cnees) to describe the set of putative regulatory regions
What did early genome-wide studies of CNEEs note?
early genome-wide studies of cnees not only noted their role in regulating the transcription of nearby genes, but also observed that cnees tend to be located near genes acting as developmental regulators
What percentage of the CNEEs tested in an in vivo mouse enhancer?
 an experimental survey of cnees found that 50% of the 437 cnees tested in an in vivo mouse enhancer assay drove reproducible expression patterns during mouse development
computational methods can identify strong candidates for gene regulatory elements by detecting regions of the genome that show evolutionary conservation, yet do not appear in any coding or noncoding mature transcript. though many noncoding rnas or noncoding portions of protein-coding transcripts may serve a regulatory purpose, we exclude these regions to focus on cis-regulatory elements that are functional at the dna level. for this reason, we use conserved nonexonic elements (cnees) to describe the set of putative regulatory regions. strong conservation indicates a sustained purifying selection against mutations, suggesting that the genomic region confers selective advantage and, hence, is functional. this procedure is independent of the tissue type, developmental stage, or environmental circumstance in which these elements become relevant. an experimental survey of cnees found that 50% of the 437 cnees tested in an in vivo mouse enhancer assay drove reproducible expression patterns during mouse development 9 ). because only a single time-point during development was tested, many of the cnees that did not drive expression in the assay may act as transcriptional enhancers at other developmental stages. cnees have also been shown to act as repressors and insulators 10 - 12 ). early genome-wide studies of cnees not only noted their role in regulating the transcription of nearby genes, but also observed that cnees tend to be located near genes acting as developmental regulators, including many
What is the conversion of aquatic cellulose
meli lake sediment cellulose changes in isotopic composition of meli lake and of the aquatic cellulose produced in that lake water is driven primarily by variations in effective moisture. this conclusion is based on the watershed characteristics of meli lake
Meli Lake Sediment Cellulose Description
although nonclimatic factors could cause shifts in the meli lake sediment cellulose d18o, their influence was probably minimal. contamination during analysis or by labile interstitial water within clay minerals in the sediment matrix are discounted on the basis of experiments performed during co2 extractions, reproducibility of analyses, and x-ray diffraction analysis that showed an absence of clay minerals (anderson, 1999). changing sources or proportions of aquatic and terrestrial material are inconsistent with the low c/n ratios and relatively depleted bulk-organic d13c values. the trends in sediment cellulose d18o have no systematic relationship with the bulk organic geochemical or sedimentological properties (fig. 2). the proportion of aquatic material does not control changes in d18o, except in the 16.5 to 14.5 cm interval
What the water oxygen isotope composition represents?
tangled up lake calcite tangled up lake is small relative to its watershed, and the lake-water oxygen isotope composition most likely reflects meteoric values
meli lake sediment cellulose changes in isotopic composition of meli lake and of the aquatic cellulose produced in that lake water is driven primarily by variations in effective moisture. this conclusion is based on the watershed characteristics of meli lake. although nonclimatic factors could cause shifts in the meli lake sediment cellulose d18o, their influence was probably minimal. contamination during analysis or by labile interstitial water within clay minerals in the sediment matrix are discounted on the basis of experiments performed during co2 extractions, reproducibility of analyses, and x-ray diffraction analysis that showed an absence of clay minerals (anderson, 1999). changing sources or proportions of aquatic and terrestrial material are inconsistent with the low c/n ratios and relatively depleted bulk-organic d13c values. the trends in sediment cellulose d18o have no systematic relationship with the bulk organic geochemical or sedimentological properties (fig. 2). the proportion of aquatic material does not control changes in d18o, except in the 16.5 to 14.5 cm interval. however, the18o-enrichment of the aquatic bryophyte cellulose in this interval appears to be a reliable indicator of increased evaporative enrichment. tangled up lake calcite tangled up lake is small relative to its watershed, and the lake-water oxygen isotope composition most likely reflects meteoric values. modern lake water is - 18.05%0, similar to the annual average d18o in barrow - 17.8%0). meteoric isotopic
write down the email id of authors concerning this article?
e-mail: hliao@rhsmith.umd.edu
to whom the articles should be concerned?
correspondence concerning this article should be addressed to hui liao, 4506 van munching hall, robert h. smith school of business, university of maryland, college park, md 20742
where does Robert H. Smith works?
robert h. smith school of business, university of maryland, college park, md 20742
ying hong, human resources and management area, degroote school of business, mcmaster university, hamilton, ontario, canada; hui liao, department of management and organization, robert h. smith school of business, university of maryland, college park; jia hu, department of management, mendoza college of business, university of notre dame; kaifeng jiang, human resource management department, school of management and labor relations, rutgers, the state university of new jersey. the authors contributed equally to this study. correspondence concerning this article should be addressed to hui liao, 4506 van munching hall, robert h. smith school of business, university of maryland, college park, md 20742. e-mail: hliao@rhsmith.umd.edu
Which is the component of ecological stability commonly assessed as the rate at which a community recovers from perturbation?
resilience
in a review of evidence for regime shifts in relation to resilience of complex ecosystems, folke et al. (2004:575) conclude that ''active adaptive management and governance of resilience will be required to sustain desired ecosystem states and transform degraded ecosystems into fundamentally new and more desirable configurations '' resilience is a component of ecological stability commonly assessed as the rate at which a community recovers from perturbation (neubert and caswell 1997, steiner et al. 2006). as such, resilience would seem to be nearly impossible to ''govern,'' even in ecosystems less given to variability extremes than the arctic. nonetheless, the regional resilience scenarios and sampling protocols outlined here are a provisional framework for the kinds of conservation actions described in ragen et al. (2008). the arctic climate has changed demonstrably in the last 50 years, with further projected changes of a magnitude not seen during the time frame of human history. these changes affect humans around the globe. we have an opportunity to enlist arctic marine mammals and the people who depend upon them in a high-profile demonstration of the effects of a warming planet on an ecosystem often regarded as pristine. we should act decisively in research planning, resource management, and communication to seize this opportunity.
Which entities do not understand the issues involved with climate change?
many planning officers and members of committees on local councils simply do not understand the issues involved because they are not presented with adequately explained information and do not bother to talk to key stakeholders such as insurance companies which could help them to understand the implications for local communities
Which country's local authorities take advice from the insurance industry?
by contrast, local authorities in scotland regularly take advice from the insurance industry and in return the industry helps to resolve possible local difficulties of availability and affordability of insurance
What type of impact do 'experts' not agree on how to correctly calculate?
even the ' experts ' do not agree on how correctly to calculate flood-related impacts, as is evidenced by a bitter battle being fought over a series of new developments by kohn pederson
many planning officers and members of committees on local councils simply do not understand the issues involved because they are not presented with adequately explained information and do not bother to talk to key stakeholders such as insurance companies which could help them to understand the implications for local communities. by contrast, local authorities in scotland regularly take advice from the insurance industry and in return the industry helps to resolve possible local difficulties of availability and affordability of insurance even the ' experts ' do not agree on how correctly to calculate flood-related impacts, as is evidenced by a bitter battle being fought over a series of new developments by kohn pederson
How do the NET cloud feedback appears?
the net cloud feedback appears close to neutral in the scanner data
What is NET cloud feedback made up?
it is made up of components due to a positive sw feedback and negative lw feedback of around 2.0 w m 2k 1each (fig. 6
What one model out of the 10 models of the 2001 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report had?
one model out of the 10 models presented in fig. 7.2 of the 2001 intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) report had a similar cloud radiative forcing feedback (houghton et al. 2001); other models behaved quite differently
the net cloud feedback appears close to neutral in the scanner data; it is made up of components due to a positive sw feedback and negative lw feedback of around 2.0 w m 2k 1each (fig. 6). soden et al. (2004) point out that this feedback is not representative of the actual cloud feedback term. however, we are still able to compare it to similar diagnostics from other models. one model out of the 10 models presented in fig. 7.2 of the 2001 intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) report had a similar cloud radiative forcing feedback (houghton et al. 2001); other models behaved quite differently. as the clear-sky y values from the scanner data (fig. 6) resemble the total y values for the pinatubo response (fig. 4), it is interesting to speculate that this may indicate that pinatubo caused few cloud changes.
what is  Catherine Badgley interest ?
catherine badgley is interested in palaeoecology of mammals, taphonomy, miocene mammals of indo-pakistan and biogeography
How  David L. Fox answer questions in palaeobiology and palaeoclimatology
david l. fox uses stable isotopes of biogenic and sedimentary materials to answer questions in palaeobiology and palaeoclimatology, analyses the role of stratigraphic data in phylogenetic analysis through the use of computer simulated evolutionary histories, and studies the ecological biogeography of modern mammals in relation to the spatial variation in climate
supporting information additional supporting information may be found in the online version of this article: table s1 coefficients and standardized coefficients of variables used in five regression models for each latitudinal zone. table s2 average values and standard deviations of climate data for the quadrats in each latitudinal zone. please note: wiley-blackwell are not responsible for the content or functionality of any supporting materials supplied by the authors. any queries (other than missing material) should be directed to the corresponding author for the article. editor: tim blackburn biosketches hong qian is interested in searching for and interpreting large-scale patterns and processes of biodiversity and biogeography. in particular, he is interested in understanding the relative roles of historical and modern factors in determining the patterns in biodiversity. catherine badgley is interested in palaeoecology of mammals, taphonomy, miocene mammals of indo-pakistan and biogeography. david l. fox uses stable isotopes of biogenic and sedimentary materials to answer questions in palaeobiology and palaeoclimatology, analyses the role of stratigraphic data in phylogenetic analysis through the use of computer simulated evolutionary histories, and studies the ecological biogeography of modern mammals in relation to the spatial variation in climate.
Why does the authors proposed multimodal climate model have an increased confidence compared to other models?
a weighted climate model ensemble can be used as input for an impact model, the only difference is a single weight attached to each simulation, although the weights will be application speci fi c. the scheme proposed naturally deals with multiple initial condition ensemble members and downweights obvious duplicate models. giving more weight to better or newer models does not necessarily reduce the uncertainty in a projection knutti and sedla c ek 2012], but it increases our con fi dence when results are based on models that simulate relevant aspects of current climate more realistically
What variables does the authors climate model use to estimate projections in an Arctic climate?
we presented a weighting scheme for multimodel climate model projections that considers both model performance and interdependence and illustrated its application to arctic climate. we highlight several open questions but argue that in cases where obvious model performance criteria exist, there are schemes to weight model projections that are very likely better than treating all models equally, for both predicting a model mean and for estimating an uncertainty
Why is it difficult for the authors to use an out of sample evaluation to verify their model's projections?
good agreement with observations is not a proof that the model is correct baumberger et al ., 2017], but bad agreement is a clear indication for trouble. a much stronger argument for such a method to work would be a true out of sample evaluation, e.g., by using data only up to say 1990 to constrain projections for 2020 allen et al ., 2013]. in practice this is rarely possible because (a) the data up to 1990 are short, of too poor quality or has too much variability, (b) the forecast lead time is too short for a forced signal to emerge from variability, (c) data since 1990 are known and used
we presented a weighting scheme for multimodel climate model projections that considers both model performance and interdependence and illustrated its application to arctic climate. we highlight several open questions but argue that in cases where obvious model performance criteria exist, there are schemes to weight model projections that are very likely better than treating all models equally, for both predicting a model mean and for estimating an uncertainty. a weighted climate model ensemble can be used as input for an impact model, the only difference is a single weight attached to each simulation, although the weights will be application speci fi c. the scheme proposed naturally deals with multiple initial condition ensemble members and downweights obvious duplicate models. giving more weight to better or newer models does not necessarily reduce the uncertainty in a projection knutti and sedla c ek 2012], but it increases our con fi dence when results are based on models that simulate relevant aspects of current climate more realistically. good agreement with observations is not a proof that the model is correct baumberger et al ., 2017], but bad agreement is a clear indication for trouble. a much stronger argument for such a method to work would be a true out of sample evaluation, e.g., by using data only up to say 1990 to constrain projections for 2020 allen et al ., 2013]. in practice this is rarely possible because (a) the data up to 1990 are short, of too poor quality or has too much variability, (b) the forecast lead time is too short for a forced signal to emerge from variability, (c) data since 1990 are known and used
what is the method used to determine the impact of soot-induced changes to snow albedo?
o determine the impact of soot-induced changes to snow albedo, a second wrf-rcm simulation, named exp1, was done using the same settings as the control simulation except that the snow albedo was modified on the basis of soot deposition determined from the wrf-chem simulation
How the second WRF-RCM simulation named EXP1 is done?
a second wrf-rcm simulation, named exp1, was done using the same settings as the control simulation except that the snow albedo was modified on the basis of soot deposition determined from the wrf-chem simulation. this was done by modifying the map of maximum snow albedo (figure 5) used by the noah lsm, which was described in section 3.3. the albedo perturbation, a0, is subtracted from amax snow
What are variables that are the most relevant to the hydrological cycle and water resources in the WUS. 4.1?
he following analyses focus on the changes of variables such as surface solar radiation, temperature, precipitation, evaporation, soil moisture, snowpack, and runoff. these variables are the most relevant to the hydrological cycle and water resources in the wus. 4.1. surface solar radiation figure 10a shows the change in net surface shortwave radiation flux (nsw) for march between the control and soot-sensitivity simulations
to determine the impact of soot-induced changes to snow albedo, a second wrf-rcm simulation, named exp1, was done using the same settings as the control simulation except that the snow albedo was modified on the basis of soot deposition determined from the wrf-chem simulation. this was done by modifying the map of maximum snow albedo (figure 5) used by the noah lsm, which was described in section 3.3. the albedo perturbation, a0, is subtracted from amax snow. we compared the results of these two 5-year-long wrf regional climate simulations with and without soot-induced snow albedo perturbations, to investigate the effects of soot on the surface energy and water budget in the wus. the following analyses focus on the changes of variables such as surface solar radiation, temperature, precipitation, evaporation, soil moisture, snowpack, and runoff. these variables are the most relevant to the hydrological cycle and water resources in the wus. 4.1. surface solar radiation figure 10a shows the change in net surface shortwave radiation flux (nsw) for march between the control and soot-sensitivity simulations. the change of nsw is spatially correlated with the change of surface albedo (figure 10d). the largest changes are over the central rockies and southern figure 6. spatial distribution of (left) simulated and (right) observed (a and b) precipitation in mm d 1
What the asymmetric boundary shifts of tropical montane Lepidoptera over four decades of climate warming are pointing to?
to estimate whether species have shifted at equal rates at their leading edges (cool boundaries) and trailing edges (warm boundaries) in response to climate change
What kind of insects we surveyed to provide the first evidence in this study?
we provide the first such evidence for tropical insects, here examining elevation shifts for the upper and lower boundaries shifts of montane moths. threats to species on tropical mountains are considered.location mount kinabalu, sabah, malaysia.methods we surveyed lepidoptera (geometridae) on mount kinabalu in 2007, 42 years after the previous surveys in 1965
What conclusions have we reached after analyzing all the data described in this paragraph?
without constraints, leading margins shifted uphill faster than trailing margins retreated, such that many species increased their elevational extents. however, this did not result in increases in range area because the area of land available declines with increasing elevation. species close to a major ecological/geological transition zone on the mountain flank declined in their range areas. extinction risk may increase long before species reach the summit, even when undisturbed habitats are available
asymmetric boundary shifts of tropical montane lepidoptera over four decades of climate warming aim to estimate whether species have shifted at equal rates at their leading edges (cool boundaries) and trailing edges (warm boundaries) in response to climate change. we provide the first such evidence for tropical insects, here examining elevation shifts for the upper and lower boundaries shifts of montane moths. threats to species on tropical mountains are considered.location mount kinabalu, sabah, malaysia.methods we surveyed lepidoptera (geometridae) on mount kinabalu in 2007, 42 years after the previous surveys in 1965. changes in species upper and lower boundaries, elevational extents and range areas were assessed. we randomly subsampled the data to ensure comparable datasets between years. estimated shifts were compared for endemic versus more widespread species, and for species that reached their range limits at different elevations.results species that reached their upper limits at 2500-2700 m (n= 28 species, 20% of those considered) retreated at both their lower and upper boundaries, and hence showed substantial average range contractions (-300 m in elevational extent and -45 km2 in estimated range area). these declines may be associated with changes in cloud cover and the presence of ecological barriers (geological and vegetation transitions) which impede uphill movement. other than this group, most species (n= 109, 80% of the species considered) expanded their upper boundaries upwards (by an average of 152 m) more than they retreated at their lower boundaries (77 m).main conclusions without constraints, leading margins shifted uphill faster than trailing margins retreated, such that many species increased their elevational extents. however, this did not result in increases in range area because the area of land available declines with increasing elevation. species close to a major ecological/geological transition zone on the mountain flank declined in their range areas. extinction risk may increase long before species reach the summit, even when undisturbed habitats are available.
What type of flooding can be the most costly and what are the risk factors for this type of flooding?
the high costs of drainage floods should be a concern. such floods can happen anywhere, but especially in places where the drainage system is old, overloaded, or poorly cleaned or maintained
What information do insurers currently lack in their flood risk information systems?
any major insurers have geographical information systems with maps of areas at risk of flooding from rivers or the sea, but these do not include areas at risk of drainage floods
What development restrctions can help prevent drainage floods?
he problem is not so bad in scotland, where developers are not allowed to build unless there is spare capacity in the existing drainage systems, but in england and wales, development is allowed even if drainage systems are already overloaded
higher sea levels, in conjunction with higher wave heights and bigger storm surges. <s121>* more intense and frequent winter storms. it is difficult to predict storm incidence and while the hadley centre model predicts an increase, several other models do not. it is safe to say that storms will be wetter, however. it should be noted that prudence predicts more frequent and severe storms in england as far north as carlisle and newcastle. the uk cabinet office has commissioned a major piece of research to examine the likely future costs of flooding in the uk under different ukcip02 scenarios and the four foresight socioeconomic scenarios table 4.2 ). the high costs of drainage floods should be a concern. such floods can happen anywhere, but especially in places where the drainage system is old, overloaded, or poorly cleaned or maintained. the floods of june and july 2007 demonstrated this clearly. uk drainage systems often date back to victorian times. the problem is not so bad in scotland, where developers are not allowed to build unless there is spare capacity in the existing drainage systems, but in england and wales, development is allowed even if drainage systems are already overloaded. this can cause problems for insurers in that the inadequacies of drainage systems are difficult to map. many major insurers have geographical information systems with maps of areas at risk of flooding from rivers or the sea, but these do not include areas at risk of drainage floods. for example in june 2007, the whole of the village of toll bar in south yorkshire was flooded, but this was outside the flood zones of one of the leading insurance companies (see figure 4.8).
What has research in risk and resilience demonstrated?
research in risk and resilience has demonstrated that accumulation of protective factors or developmental assets increases the chances of optimal development in the face of risk or adversity
What does bioecological theory emphasize?
bio-ecological theory emphasizes the importance of positive supports across multiple environmental domains, given the emphasis on the interplay of human development with multiple embedded contexts
What provides a great incentive for policymakers to invest in reforming low performing schools?
the power of schools to positively impact development in the face of pronounced adversity can provide a greater incentive for policymakers to invest in reforming low performing schools
another aspect of school climate research that has gone largely unexamined is the relative interplay between school climate and other developmental contexts such as the family, neighborhood, and community (ainsworth 2002 ). most studies on school climate focus completely on the impact of the school context on student outcomes, but neglect to factor the influence of these additional developmental contexts on student development. research in risk and resilience has demonstrated that accumulation of protective factors or developmental assets increases the chances of optimal development in the face of risk or adversity. this research champions the ability of these factors to buffer the negative effects of risk and produce positive outcomes. additionally, bio-ecological theory emphasizes the importance of positive supports across multiple environmental domains, given the emphasis on the interplay of human development with multiple embedded contexts. in other words, school climate factors do not exist in isolation from other environmental contexts (e.g., family, neighborhood), and should therefore be examined in relation to them. an area of interest for researchers with a bioecological perspective may be whether or not a good school buffers the detrimental effects of a neglectful or uninvolved parent or a high crime and poverty-stricken neighborhood. are family or home environment more relevant and salient in the early years, while school environment becomes increasingly important as children age? the power of schools to positively impact development in the face of pronounced adversity can provide a greater incentive for policymakers to invest in reforming low performing schools, particularly since low performing schools are often comprised of students whose families face great economic hardships.
What is the most widely-distributed honey bee in the world because of its great honey-harvesting potential?
apis mellifera is the most widely-distributed honey bee in the world because of its great honey-harvesting potential
How many years ago have these two species had thought to diverged?
the two species are thought to have diverged around 8 million years ago
What two races of Apis have the most genetically dissimilarities?
the two most genetically dissimilar races are apis mellifera mellifera and apis mellifera ligustica
apis mellifera is the most widely-distributed honey bee in the world because of its great honey-harvesting potential. from a morphological, behavioural and genetic standpoint, apis mellifera closely resembles apis cerana, whose distribution range extends from japan to the easternmost fringes of the near east. the two species are thought to have diverged around 8 million years ago (33). the original distribution range of apis mellifera is europe, africa and the middle east as far as afghanistan, kazakhstan and eastern russia. the species includes 25 sub-species or geographic races described by morphometry and molecular analysis and grouped into evolutionary branches on the basis of their morphological similarities (fig. 2). each race is defined according to the morphological, behavioural, physiological and ecological characteristics which it has evolved to suit its individual climatic and environmental conditions. the races of the 'a' branch are typically african, although the races can differ markedly one from another. the races of the 'c' branch, such as apis mellifera carnica, ligustica and cecropia live along the north-eastern coasts of the mediterranean sea and are morphologically similar to the races of the 'o' branch in the near and middle east. the races of the 'm' branch, such as apis mellifera and iberiensis, are typical of western europe, but also share some similarities with the north african races (10, 33). a recent molecular study using snp markers confirmed the significance of the evolutionary branches of apis mellifera (40). it revealed that the species had originated in africa. two branches have colonised europe, one by travelling from the middle east to italy, and the other from spain to denmark. the two most genetically dissimilar races are apis mellifera mellifera and apis mellifera ligustica the genetic pool of these races is evolving continually in response to natural selection, with bees adapting not only to changes in their environment but also in response to human apicultural practices (21). any contact between these races and imported races, or with pathogens, can alter their characteristics markedly. apis mellifera ligustica apis mellifera mellifera and apis mellifera caucacica have been exported worldwide, as far as asia, where they have come into contact with other honey bee species as well as with new parasites and pathogens (16).
How many stable isotopes does Carbon have?
carbon has two stable isotopes,12c and13c; the first is by far the dominant in the earth system
What can lead to carbon isotopic excursions?
deviation from equilibrium or separation of carbon into distinct reservoirs can lead to carbon isotopic excursions
Who hypothesized that in the Proterozoic a significant portion may reside in a dissolved or suspended organic carbon pool?
conventional thinking maintains that the organic carbon accumulates in marine sediments, but rothman et al. (2003) hypothesized that in the proterozoic a significant portion may reside in a dissolved or suspended organic carbon pool
the stable isotopic composition of carbon preserved in the geological record provides a window into the operation of earth's carbon cycle. carbon has two stable isotopes,12c and13c; the first is by far the dominant in the earth system. carbon (mostly in the form of co2) is outgassed from the interior of earth with a composition of d13c - 6  and in a steady-state abiotic world in which all outgassing was balanced by reaction with silicate rocks to form carbonates, the carbonates would have the same isotopic composition. deviation from equilibrium or separation of carbon into distinct reservoirs can lead to carbon isotopic excursions. organic carbon produced by photosynthetic marine biota is shifted by ~- 25  relative to the carbon pool from which it is made. to the extent that some of the outgassed carbon is sequestered as light organic carbon, the carbonate deposits are shifted correspondingly toward positive values. interpretation of the isotopic record is considerably more complicated when the carbon cycle is substantially out of equilibrium, because one then must consider interchanges of carbon among the many distinct reservoirs in which it may reside. conventional thinking maintains that the organic carbon accumulates in marine sediments, but rothman et al. (2003) hypothesized that in the proterozoic a significant portion may reside in a dissolved or suspended organic carbon pool. such a pool would be much more subject to oxidation than buried sedimentary organic carbon, if oxidants become available in sufficient quantities. the neoproterozoic is a time of extreme carbon isotopic excursions. figure 2 shows a longterm record of the variations of d13c in carbonate, with detailed high-resolution data for selected sections shown in the insets. over the proterozoic, the general pattern consists of a period of strong fluctuations at the dawn of the proterozoic followed by a long period of stasis that terminates with resumption of massive fluctuations during the neoproterozoic. after the neoproterozoic, earth
What do examples of community-based adaptation in vulnerable communities in Bangladesh help illuminate?
in addition, examples of community-based adaptation in vulnerable communities in bangladesh help illuminate the role and value of community-based adaptation, its limitations, and its potential to help integrate concerns about vulnerability and development into wider climate change policy
What are the three questions that early debates about community-based adaptation, and adaptation in general, are grappling with?
what is adaptation to climate change (versus more general climatic variability)? who or what adapts--and how? how does community-based adaptation fit with larger-scale adaptation policies and programs? early debates about community-based adaptation, and adaptation in general, are grappling with these questions
Who were among the attendees of the three international conferences on community-based adaptation since 2005?
three international conferences on community-based adaptation have been organized by international organizations and think tanks6 since 2005, with policymakers, researchers, and development organizations among the attendees
international efforts to reduce and sequester carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are not yet slowing the rate of global warming. indeed, the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) anticipates rapid changes in climate even if the greenhousegas emissions are reduced quickly,1 and recent findings suggest that these projections are underestimated.2 the impacts of climate change will be severe, particularly for the most vulnerable developing countries that have the least capacity to cope. as a result, the need to support adaptation in developing countries is growing in urgency. adaptation describes adjustments in natural or human systems in response to the impacts of climate change.3 until recently, adaptation was a controversial topic in climate change policy debates, with many arguing that too much attention to adaptation--considered locally focused, inexpensive, and beneficial only in the short term--could detract from more expensive mitigation efforts for the global good. in his 1992 book, earth in the balance, al gore wrote, "believing that we can adapt to just abut anything is ultimately a kind of laziness, an arrogant faith in our ability to react in time."4 however, the tide is turning. given slow progress on mitigation coupled with evidence of greater and more rapid impacts of climate change than those previously expected by the ipcc, adaptation is firmly on the international policy agenda as a crucial supplement to mitigation. signaling this change, gore stated in a recent interview with the economist, "i used to think adaptation subtracted from our efforts on prevention. but i've changed my mind. poor countries are vulnerable and need our help."5 one growing proposal for an approach to adaptation is community-based adaptation. community-based adaptation operates at the local level in communities that are vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. it identifies, assists, and implements community-based development activities that strengthen the capacity of local people to adapt to living in a riskier and less predictable climate. moreover, community-based adaptation generates adaptation strategies through participatory processes, involving local stakeholders and development and disaster risk-reduction practitioners. it builds on existing cultural norms and addresses local development concerns that make people vulnerable to the impacts of climate change in the first place. three international conferences on community-based adaptation have been organized by international organizations and think tanks6 since 2005, with policymakers, researchers, and development organizations among the attendees. community-based adaptation projects are now in operation in vulnerable communities in developing and some developed countries. yet fundamental challenges and uncertainties remain about the interpretation of adaptation policy, which in turn affects the implementation of community-based adaptation. what is adaptation to climate change (versus more general climatic variability)? who or what adapts--and how? how does community-based adaptation fit with larger-scale adaptation policies and programs? early debates about community-based adaptation, and adaptation in general, are grappling with these questions. in addition, examples of community-based adaptation in vulnerable communities in bangladesh help illuminate the role and value of community-based adaptation, its limitations, and its potential to help integrate concerns about vulnerability and development into wider climate change policy.
What are the impacts of floods on health?
the health burden of floods consists not just of direct mortality and injury during onset of the flood hazard, but also of morbidity from a range of diseases and other health outcomes contracted through various pathways - some of which may lead on to mortality. these morbidity pathways and effects have to date been poorly characterised for most health outcomes in most regions
Is there evidence that shows an increase in mental health disorders during or after floods?
however, a number of epidemiological studies reported in chapter 3 do provide reliable evidence to back up qualitative reports of the potential for disease outbreaks and increase in mental health disorders during or after floods. this health burden is often acknowledged in discussions of the overall impacts of flooding, but is seldom included formally in flood risk assessments
What do flood risk assessments primarily focus on?
to date, most flood risk assessments and impact studies in europe have focused on damage to property and economic and financial losses. unless the 'intangible' health impacts are taken into consideration the true costs of flooding remain unknown and there is a risk of focusing on what can be more easily measured as opposed to what may often be more important to people, particularly as these health effects may persist for long after properties have been repaired (rpa/fhrc et al., 2003). point 2
the health burden of floods consists not just of direct mortality and injury during onset of the flood hazard, but also of morbidity from a range of diseases and other health outcomes contracted through various pathways - some of which may lead on to mortality. these morbidity pathways and effects have to date been poorly characterised for most health outcomes in most regions. however, a number of epidemiological studies reported in chapter 3 do provide reliable evidence to back up qualitative reports of the potential for disease outbreaks and increase in mental health disorders during or after floods. this health burden is often acknowledged in discussions of the overall impacts of flooding, but is seldom included formally in flood risk assessments. to date, most flood risk assessments and impact studies in europe have focused on damage to property and economic and financial losses. unless the 'intangible' health impacts are taken into consideration the true costs of flooding remain unknown and there is a risk of focusing on what can be more easily measured as opposed to what may often be more important to people, particularly as these health effects may persist for long after properties have been repaired (rpa/fhrc et al., 2003). point 2
What factors do the farmers use in their assessment?
the adaptation strategies are grouped into adaptations by country, and farmer perceptions regarding temperature and precipitation
What are the two main modifications that can be made after the climate is determined?
these adaptation options can be classified into two main modifications in the production systems including increased diversification and escaping sensitive growth stages through crop management practices that ensure that critical crop growth stages do not coincide with very harsh climatic conditions in the season such as mid-season droughts
farmer adaptation strategies in southern africa table 3 presents various adaptation strategies being used by farmers in response to changing climatic and other socioeconomic based on the survey observations. the adaptation strategies are grouped into adaptations by country, and farmer perceptions regarding temperature and precipitation. as indicated in the results, less than 40 percent of the respondents are not adopting any adaptation strategies. as has been described above, these adaptation options can be classified into two main modifications in the production systems including increased diversification and escaping sensitive growth stages through crop management practices that ensure that critical crop growth stages do not coincide with very harsh climatic conditions in the season such as mid-season droughts. increased diversification through engaging in production activities that are more drought-tolerant and or resistant to temperature stresses as well as activities that make efficient use and take full advantage of the prevailing water serve as an important form of insurance against rainfall variability. growing a number of different crops in the same plot or in different plots reduces the risk of complete crop failure as different crops are affected differently by climate events.
What is a costal zone
the coastal zone forms a dynamic interface of land and water of high ecological diversity and critical economic importance
How will climate change effect the costal zone in Canada
climate change would impact the coastal zone primarily through changes in water levels. sea level rise, resulting from thermal expansion of ocean waters and increased melting of glaciers and ice caps, is the main issue for marine regions. conversely, declining water levels, resulting from changes in precipitation and evaporation, are projected for the great lakes
To what level are global sea level like to rise by and in what time period
global sea level is projected to rise by 8 to 88 centimetres between 1990 and 2100, with sea level rise continuing and perhaps accelerating in the following century
the coastal zone forms a dynamic interface of land and water of high ecological diversity and critical economic importance. natural features in the coastal zone support a diverse range of species and are key areas for fisheries and recreation, while coastal infrastructure is essential for trade, transportation and tourism. canada's coastline, which is the longest in the world, extends along the atlantic, pacific and arctic oceans, as well as along the shores of large freshwater bodies, such as the great lakes. climate change would impact the coastal zone primarily through changes in water levels. sea level rise, resulting from thermal expansion of ocean waters and increased melting of glaciers and ice caps, is the main issue for marine regions. conversely, declining water levels, resulting from changes in precipitation and evaporation, are projected for the great lakes. other impacts on the coastal zone would result from changes in wave patterns, storm surges, and the duration and thickness of seasonal ice cover. global sea level is projected to rise by 8 to 88 centimetres between 1990 and 2100, with sea level rise continuing and perhaps accelerating in the following century. from an impacts and adaptation perspective, however, it is relative sea level rise that is important. changes in relative sea level would vary regionally and depend largely on geological processes. overall, more than 7000 kilometres of canada's coastline
Why has agricultural production in China received considerable attention?
has received considerable attention as any climate induced variations of the natural environment may have considerable impacts on the food production
What is the scarcity of water in the agricultural sector attributed to?
water scarcity in the agricultural sector, particularly in northeast china, has been attributed to declining precipitation rates, overuse of groundwater as well as deteriorating irrigation structures and inappropriate water management
How many percent of arable land was irrigated in China in 1999?
in 1999 39.7% of the available cropland including the major part of the rice based cropping systems in china was irrigated fao, 2002 
crop production in china, the country with the largest population of the world, has received considerable attention as any climate induced variations of the natural environment may have considerable impacts on the food production harris, 1996 ). for more than a decade water scarcity has been a major environmental and economic problem in china smil, 1993; kharin et al., 1999 ). water scarcity in the agricultural sector, particularly in northeast china, has been attributed to declining precipitation rates, overuse of groundwater as well as deteriorating irrigation structures and inappropriate water management. in 1999 39.7% of the available cropland including the major part of the rice based cropping systems in china was irrigated fao, 2002 ), either to increase or stabilize yields or to make cropping possible in arid regions that otherwise offer favourable cropping conditions fig. 1 ). irrigation allows obtaining potential maximum yield while rain fed crop yields are
Which was established as a priority right?
adaptation under the unfccc in principle, adaptation was established as a priority right at the start of the international climate effort. in the unfccc signed in 1992, all parties committed generally to undertake national adaptation measures and to cooperate in preparing for the impacts of climate change
Define UNFCCC process, adaptation measures ?
 in the unfccc process, adaptation measures are intertwined with future commitments on climate mitigation, making the unfccc negotiating process the most obvious venue for structuring long-term global agreements for both adaptation and mitigation
What does Specific elements of a convention-based adaptation approach include?
a) support to vulnerable countries for the development of comprehensive national adaptation strategies; (b) funding to assist countries with approved national strategies to implement high-priority measures, with priority given to those addressing impacts reasonably attributable to climate change; and (c) establishment or designation of an international body to provide technical support, judge the adequacy of national strategies, and select high-priority projects for funding (burton et al. 2006
adaptation under the unfccc in principle, adaptation was established as a priority right at the start of the international climate effort. in the unfccc signed in 1992, all parties committed generally to undertake national adaptation measures and to cooperate in preparing for the impacts of climate change. in the unfccc process, adaptation measures are intertwined with future commitments on climate mitigation, making the unfccc negotiating process the most obvious venue for structuring long-term global agreements for both adaptation and mitigation. specific elements of a convention-based adaptation approach include: (a) support to vulnerable countries for the development of comprehensive national adaptation strategies; (b) funding to assist countries with approved national strategies to implement high-priority measures, with priority given to those addressing impacts reasonably attributable to climate change; and (c) establishment or designation of an international body to provide technical support, judge the adequacy of national strategies, and select high-priority projects for funding (burton et al. 2006). however, there are constraints on what can be achieved within a conventionbased regime created specifically to address climate change. first, the regime's inherent focus on climate change may not easily lend itself to a comprehensive effort addressing both climate change and natural climate variability. second, the climate change regime has not traditionally engaged many of the agencies and actors whose participation in adaptation is essential. even if the regime assigned a higher priority to adaptation, it still might not be the best channel for engaging relevant policy makers and stakeholders (burton et al. 2006). thus, a convention-based adaptation regime would tend to focus more on policies and measures that are designed as a direct response to climate change than on policies for building general adaptive capacity of the society or addressing issues such as vulnerability to climate variability or local environmental benefits of adaptation. funding for adaptation measures under the unfccc is designed mainly to cover the full incremental costs of adaptation (bouwer and aerts 2006) and are channelled through various mechanisms (see box 17).
What are the priorities of this chapter?
specific priorities identified within papers cited in this chapter include: * greater attention to impacts and adaptation issues for road transportation in southern canada; * increased research on the vulnerability of canadian roads to changes in thermal conditions, including freeze-thaw cycles and extreme temperatures; * studies that assess the significance of extreme weather events and weather variability in the design, cost, mobility and safety of canadian transportation systems; * a more thorough evaluation of existing adaptive measures and their relative ability to defer infrastructure upgrades, reduce operational costs, and maintain or improve mobility and safety; * comprehensive studies that focus on key issues for shipping and navigation, including the opening of the northwest passage and lower water levels in the great lakes-st. lawrence seaway system; * an analysis of how changes in factors external to climate, such as technology, land-use patterns and economics, affect societal vulnerability to climate and climate change; and * studies that integrate mitigation (greenhouse gas emissions reduction) and climate change-related impacts and/or adaptation issues
Who should I share this information with?
all of this research should be conducted in close working relationships with stakeholders, which in turn will provide the best opportunity for weatherand/or climate-sensitive issues to become acknowledged in legislation, standards and policies
How much do we know about climate change in transportation?
it is to be expected that many gaps exist in our understanding of potential climate change impacts and adaptation strategies in the transportation sector
therefore, it is to be expected that many gaps exist in our understanding of potential climate change impacts and adaptation strategies in the transportation sector. given the limited amount of work that has been completed, virtually all impact areas and adaptation strategies require further investigation. specific priorities identified within papers cited in this chapter include: * greater attention to impacts and adaptation issues for road transportation in southern canada; * increased research on the vulnerability of canadian roads to changes in thermal conditions, including freeze-thaw cycles and extreme temperatures; * studies that assess the significance of extreme weather events and weather variability in the design, cost, mobility and safety of canadian transportation systems; * a more thorough evaluation of existing adaptive measures and their relative ability to defer infrastructure upgrades, reduce operational costs, and maintain or improve mobility and safety; * comprehensive studies that focus on key issues for shipping and navigation, including the opening of the northwest passage and lower water levels in the great lakes-st. lawrence seaway system; * an analysis of how changes in factors external to climate, such as technology, land-use patterns and economics, affect societal vulnerability to climate and climate change; and * studies that integrate mitigation (greenhouse gas emissions reduction) and climate change-related impacts and/or adaptation issues. all of this research should be conducted in close working relationships with stakeholders, which in turn will provide the best opportunity for weatherand/or climate-sensitive issues to become acknowledged in legislation, standards and policies. consideration of the institutional arrangements that would best foster appropriate adaptations in all parts of canada is also important.
What is ecosystem services?
the millennium ecosystem assessment (2003) defines ecosystem services as the benefits people obtain from ecosystems
What are three main types of ecosystem services?
three types of ecosystem services directly contribute to human wellbeing: provisioning services (also called ecosystem goods), such as food and fuel wood; regulating services such as regulation of water, climate or erosion; and cultural services such as recreational, spiritual or religious services
the concept of ecosystem services the millennium ecosystem assessment (2003) defines ecosystem services as the benefits people obtain from ecosystems. three types of ecosystem services directly contribute to human wellbeing: provisioning services (also called ecosystem goods), such as food and fuel wood; regulating services such as regulation of water, climate or erosion; and cultural services such as recreational, spiritual or religious services. in addition to these three types, supporting services represent a fourth type of service and include the services that are necessary for the production of other services; for example, primary production, nutrient cycling and soil formation (see figure 3).
Write about the fourth assessment report of the IPCC?
the fourth assessment report of the ipcc projects global slr over the course of this century to be between 18 and 38 cm (7-15") for their lowest (b1) emissions scenario, and between 26 and 59 cm (10-23") for their highest emissions scenario
In which century local SLR will closely match global SLR?
based on the current science, our "medium" estimate of 21st century slr in washington is that in puget sound, local slr will closely match global slr
How much SLR will be apparent to rates of local tectonic uplift on the northwest olympic Penisula?
on the northwest olympic peninsula, very little relative slr will be apparent due to rates of local tectonic uplift that currently exceed projected rates of global slr
the fourth assessment report of the ipcc projects global slr over the course of this century to be between 18 and 38 cm (7-15") for their lowest (b1) emissions scenario, and between 26 and 59 cm (10-23") for their highest emissions scenario. based on the current science, our "medium" estimate of 21st century slr in washington is that in puget sound, local slr will closely match global slr. on the northwest olympic peninsula, very little relative slr will be apparent due to rates of local tectonic uplift that currently exceed projected rates of global slr. on the central and southern washington coast, the number of continuous monitoring sites with sufficiently long data records is small, adding to the uncertainty of slr estimates for this region. available data points suggest, however, that uplift is occurring in this region, but at rates lower than that observed on the nw olympic peninsula.
What type of models are essential for analyzing biosphere-atmosphere at a global scale.
models that couple the carbon cycle and climate change
What determines the accuracy of the projections of models?
how well the models represent the mechanisms responsible for the real-world feedback
What should happen after examining critically experimental evidence about key C uptake?
release processes that determine the terrestrial carbon feedback to climate warming
models that couple the carbon cycle and climate change are essential for examining biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks at the global scale. field experiments cannot be used to quantify the global-scale sensitivity of terrestrial ecosystems to climate warming over time spans of decades or centuries. however, models are necessary ions of reality, and the accuracy of their projections depends on how well the models represent the mechanisms responsible for the real-world feedback. as moorcroft (2006) argues, model-assisted "understanding of biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks is a collection of interesting, but largely untested, hypotheses for the future state of terrestrial ecosystem and climate." it is therefore imperative to critically examine experimental evidence about key c uptake and release processes that determine the terrestrial carbon feedback to climate warming.
All statistical analyses were performed using....?
all statistical analyses were performed using r
When was the model simplified?
when no significant interaction was found, the model was simplified
linear models combined with anova were applied to test for significant differences between groups at single points of time, while taking the split-plot design into account. homogeneous groups of factor combinations (drought manipulation, vegetation type, diversity level) were identified by tukey's hsd post hoc comparisons. level of significance was set to p 0.05. statistical significance of difference in variability of length in flowering was evaluated by the levene test. for time series, linear mixed-effects models were employed to test for effects of drought manipulation and diversity and their respective interactions while taking the split-plot design and the repeated measures into account (time used as random factor). when no significant interaction was found, the model was simplified by using only the drought manipulations as fixed effects and time as random effect. significance of differences p 0.05) was evaluated by markov chain monte carlo sampling of 1000 permutations. linear mixed-effects models were conducted with the function 'lmer' (bates sarkar 2007). prior to statistical analysis, data was logor squareroottransformed, if conditions of normality were not met, or to improve homogeneity of variances. both characteristics were tested by examining the residuals versus fitted plots and the normal qq-plots of the linear models. all statistical analyses were performed using r.
What are considered as strategic objectives in the 2007 Bali Road Map?
technology development and diffusion are considered strategic objectives in the 2007 bali road map
Why north-to-south technology transfer is of particular interest?
north-to-south technology transfer is of particular interest since technologies have been developed mostly in industrialized countries and that technologies are urgently required to mitigate ghg emissions in fast-growing emerging economies
Which are the three countries where two-thirds of the inventions patented worldwide between 1998 and 2005 have been developed?
a recent study looking at patents filed in thirteen climate change mitigation technologies shows that two-thirds of the inventions patented worldwide between 1998 and 2005 have been developed in only three countries: japan, the usa, and germany (dechezlepretre et al., 2009
the international diffusion of technologies for mitigating climate change is at the core of current discussions surrounding the post-kyoto agreement. technology development and diffusion are considered strategic objectives in the 2007 bali road map. north-to-south technology transfer is of particular interest since technologies have been developed mostly in industrialized countries and that technologies are urgently required to mitigate ghg emissions in fast-growing emerging economies. a recent study looking at patents filed in thirteen climate change mitigation technologies shows that two-thirds of the inventions patented worldwide between 1998 and 2005 have been developed in only three countries: japan, the usa, and germany (dechezlepretre et al., 2009). however, enhancing technology transfer involves considerable policy and economic challenges because developing countries are reluctant to bear the financial costs of catching up alone, while firms in industrialized countries refuse to give away strategic intellectual assets. this has led to an intense debate on policies that affect technology diffusion, with a particular focus on the role of intellectual property rights (iprs) that developing countries view as barriers to technology diffusion. by contrast, industrialized countries advocate that iprs provide innovators with incentives to disseminate their inventions through market channels, such as foreign direct investment and the international trade of equipment goods. in their view, every developing country could actually promote transfers by developing its capability to absorb new technologies. this paper examines these issues by identifying the factors that promote or hinder the international diffusion of climate-friendly technologies. we focus the analysis on the most relevant questions in current policy discussions. first, is the capacity of countries to absorb foreign technologies important? if the answer is in the affirmative, this implies that capacity building is a powerful lever to technology transfer. do strict iprs induce more transfers? do barriers to trade or to foreign direct investment significantly reduce the import of technologies?
What does the flowsheet tell us?
besides the preliminary treatment units (screens and grit chambers), the flowsheet comprises the sequential anaerobic and aerobic biological treatment units (uasb reactor and submerged aerated biofilter), as well as the aeration, sludge accumulation and dewatering units
What are most often used in small sized plants?
sludge drying beds have been frequently used in small-sized plants
What happens to the sludge that is removed?
also in this configuration, the excess aerobic sludge removed from the biofilter is returned to the uasb reactor for thickening and anaerobic digestion
sewage treatment plants that use uasb reactors followed by submerged aerated biofilters also present a simple flowsheet (figure 29.8). besides the preliminary treatment units (screens and grit chambers), the flowsheet comprises the sequential anaerobic and aerobic biological treatment units (uasb reactor and submerged aerated biofilter), as well as the aeration, sludge accumulation and dewatering units. also in this configuration, the excess aerobic sludge removed from the biofilter is returned to the uasb reactor for thickening and anaerobic digestion. therefore, with this flowsheet, primary sedimentation tanks and separate units for thickening and anaerobic digestion of the excess aerobic sludge are avoided, different from the conventional treatment plants that use submerged aerated biofilters (figure 45.1). the sludge wasted from the uasb reactor is already thickened and stabilised, and can be directly sent for dewatering and final disposal. sludge drying beds have been frequently used in small-sized plants.
The best combination of measures are as good as what?
the best combination of measures is as good as the policy capacity of the local institution whether municipality or ca
What kind are the current measures for adapting to uncertain long-term impacts?
current measures for adapting to uncertain long-term impacts are of a precautionary nature and should be robust, i.e. provide benefits no matter which climate scenario materializes (adger et al., 1999
What kind of impact will the mitigation measures required by the Federal Government have on municipalities?
though discretionary, these measures are likely to affect energy efficiency (buildings) and solid waste management (methane emissions
on the other hand, current measures for adapting to uncertain long-term impacts are of a precautionary nature and should be robust, i.e. provide benefits no matter which climate scenario materializes (adger et al., 1999). the best combination of measures is as good as the policy capacity of the local institution whether municipality or ca. the latter can benefit from the dissemination of information by professional organizations or senior governments about the initiatives and behavior of other local institutions (peer pressure); this disseminated information may then become a standard. since mitigation and adaptation cannot generally be dissociated, lessons learned from community mitigation initiatives are relevant for community adaptation. key lessons from the implementation of fcm voluntary mitigation programs, which allow municipalities to become aware of and to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions, are adaptable to municipalities' efforts towards climate change adaptation (fcm, 2002). mitigation measures will soon be required from municipalities by the federal government. though discretionary, these measures are likely to affect energy efficiency (buildings) and solid waste management (methane emissions). similarly, climate change adaptation experience by private firms is adaptable to municipalities (ceres 2002, 2003). 5.2. adaptive measures for infrastructures
Why is there an advantage to using inventorytype, quantitative data to model relative abundancies?
there is advantage in using inventorytype, quantitative data (like fia or bbs) to model relative abundances, unlike limited presence/absence (binary) or presence-only information obtained from traditional sources such as herbaria or county-based records
Why was it of use to have an abundance of information?
because of the abundance information in our research, we could use powerful regression-based approaches instead of the more common binary/classification approaches for modeling species distributions
What could indicate a large change in suitable habitat?
the large change in suitable habitat could indicate a pending population decline due to rather severe limitations to regeneration and even the potential for widespread mortality (as described with drought by allen and others 2010 to create a relatively rapid change in composition and the ecosystem
if possible, there is advantage in using inventorytype, quantitative data (like fia or bbs) to model relative abundances, unlike limited presence/absence (binary) or presence-only information obtained from traditional sources such as herbaria or county-based records. because most data used for sdms are of the presence only or presence/absence type, this has been the focus of most sdm research, especially in europe (franklin 2009 ). because of the abundance information in our research, we could use powerful regression-based approaches instead of the more common binary/classification approaches for modeling species distributions. the key advantage is that we can make analyses and interpretations based on the core of the species' ranges, rather than the more uncertain range boundaries that are equally weighted in presence/ absence data. this distinction is crucial when it comes to modeling habitat responses to climate change. when there is considerable variability around projected changes in climate, a continuous response variable allows the model to focus on core areas of a species distribution where there is greater certainty of species occurrence. here we present an example of the value of using abundance-based models relative to binary models using sugar maple acer saccharum ). when modeled as presence/absence integration of species models under climate change using the randomforest classification algorithm, the change in habitat for one climate model is a 90% loss in the extent of the species habitat, but when run with abundance, the loss is only 36% of its current habitat range (figure 2 ). this large difference can be attributed to higher sensitivity when including the abundance values, which allows distinguishing the core from the edge of the species range. another advantageous feature to using abundance-based models is the ability to interpret to some degree, by species, the possible rate of changes that may occur throughout its range. for example, the distrib models may suggest that the species is a large decreaser, in that the relative abundance in around 2100 may be much less than it is currently, especially towards its southern range boundary. the large change in suitable habitat could indicate a pending population decline due to rather severe limitations to regeneration and even the potential for widespread mortality (as described with drought by allen and others 2010 to create a relatively rapid change in composition and the ecosystem. in contrast, a small change in projected relative abundance over time would give an indication of more subtle changes to come.
what can the response of forests help?
the response of forests to this extreme event can help in anticipating and preparing for the impacts of climate change
what spatial and temporal concentration can help?
the relatively predictable spatial and temporal concentration of high tree mortality levels may aid forest conservation and management, because composition and structural change may occur slowly in some forests even during extreme drought, allowing management efforts to be focused on other higher vulnerability areas. this study also highlights the vital importance of consistent, large-scale monitoring of forest ecosystems
why occasional or irregular surveys can miss key signals?
given the outsized influence of extreme events on the stability and functioning of these ecosystems, and the uneven distribution of vulnerability in space and time, occasional or patchy surveys may miss the key signals that are essential for understanding and managing forest change
the response of forests to this extreme event can help in anticipating and preparing for the impacts of climate change. the relatively predictable spatial and temporal concentration of high tree mortality levels may aid forest conservation and management, because composition and structural change may occur slowly in some forests even during extreme drought, allowing management efforts to be focused on other higher vulnerability areas. this study also highlights the vital importance of consistent, large-scale monitoring of forest ecosystems. given the outsized influence of extreme events on the stability and functioning of these ecosystems, and the uneven distribution of vulnerability in space and time, occasional or patchy surveys may miss the key signals that are essential for understanding and managing forest change.
What is the most important champter?
a discussion on the applicability, advantages and disadvantages of this configuration is presented in chapter 30
What are the unisual effects in chapter 20?
in which this alternative is compared to the usual alternatives (conventional activated sludge, extended aeration and sequencing batch reactors
What is continuous flow?
the essence of the continuous flow activated sludge process is the integration of the aeration tank (aerobic biological reactor), secondary sedimentation tank and sludge recirculation line
the essence of the continuous flow activated sludge process is the integration of the aeration tank (aerobic biological reactor), secondary sedimentation tank and sludge recirculation line. these three components are maintained in the alternative of activated sludge systems acting as post-treatment of effluents from anaerobic reactors. the intermittent flow activated sludge system (sequencing batch reactors) can also be adopted as post-treatment, requiring, in this case, only the tanks that alternate in the functions of reaction and sedimentation. a discussion on the applicability, advantages and disadvantages of this configuration is presented in chapter 30, in which this alternative is compared to the usual alternatives (conventional activated sludge, extended aeration and sequencing batch reactors).
What were some results of the 1991 democracy?
in the first few years after the of democracy in 1991, government presence in rural areas was weak and there was considerable uncertainty about future directions with the restructuring of government services and decentralization. some people took advantage of this void by taking possession of land or by making claims to land in various ways
How were rice fields affected by droughts?
the droughts led to a more rapid encroachment of rice fields into burgu areas, while decentralization in the beginning created uncertainty around future power structures and policies
Did individuals try to take advantage of the land?
this led actors to try their luck and make claims to land in various opportunistic ways
in the first few years after the of democracy in 1991, government presence in rural areas was weak and there was considerable uncertainty about future directions with the restructuring of government services and decentralization. some people took advantage of this void by taking possession of land or by making claims to land in various ways.13expansion of farmland at the expense of pastures caused by a growing population is a common phenomenon throughout africa. the droughts led to a more rapid encroachment of rice fields into burgu areas, while decentralization in the beginning created uncertainty around future power structures and policies. this led actors to try their luck and make claims to land in various opportunistic ways.
What do the RWH systems model?
the rwh systems modeled integrate the necessary infrastructures for harvesting and using rainwater in newly constructed residential areas
What factors were taken into account regarding the structural and hydraulic sizing of the catchment, storage, and distribution subsystems?
the structural and hydraulic sizing of the catchment, storage, and distribution subsystems was taken into account using an average mediterranean rainfall, the area of the harvesting surfaces, and a constant water demand for laundry
purpose at present, many urban areas in mediterranean climates are coping with water scarcity, facing a growing water demand and a limited conventional water supply. urban design and planning has so far largely neglected the benefits of rainwater harvesting (rwh) in the context of a sustainable management of this resource. therefore, the purpose of this study was to identify the most environmentally friendly strategy for rainwater utilization in mediterranean urban environments of different densities. materials and methods the rwh systems modeled integrate the necessary infrastructures for harvesting and using rainwater in newly constructed residential areas. eight scenarios were defined in terms of diffuse (d) and compact (c) urban models and the tank locations ((1) underground tank, (2) below-roof tank, (3) distributed-over-roof tank, and (4) block tank). the structural and hydraulic sizing of the catchment, storage, and distribution subsystems was taken into account using an average mediterranean rainfall, the area of the harvesting surfaces, and a constant water demand for laundry. the quantification of environmental impacts was performed through a life cycle assessment, using cml 2001 baseline method. the necessary materials and processes were considered in each scenario according to the lifecycle stages (i.e., materials, construction, transportation, use, and deconstruction) and subsystems. results and discussion the environmental characterization indicated that the best scenario in both urban models is the distributed-over-roof tank (d3, c3), which provided a reduction in impacts compared to the worst scenario of up to 73% in diffuse models and even higher in compact ones, 92% in the most dramatic case. the lower impacts are related to the
What are two examples of diversity in farm management strategies?
e.g., cultivar choice, and fertilizer and pesticide use
What are farmers in Mediterranean regions closer to that make farming more unprofitable?
farmers in mediterranean regions may be closer to extreme weather conditions that make farming more unprofitable than in other regions
if temperatures become too high, can a high adaptive capacity always allow farmers to cope?
if temperatures become too high and/or water availability too low, even a high adaptive capacity may not allow farmers to cope anymore with "exposure" that has become too high
fig. 3. spatial distribution of the correlation between inter-annual variability in precipitation and wheat yield anomalies [r(yield,prec)]. the legend is different from fig. 2 to demonstrate the (non-) significant relationships r <0.53). to a negligible response at regional level. regional farm diversity, in size and intensity, represents diversity in management strategies (e.g., cultivar choice, and fertilizer and pesticide use). the opposite but small effect of land-use diversity suggests that increasing land-use diversity is not a good adaptation strategy for reducing the negative impacts of higher temperatures on regional wheat yields. our results give no information about the position and distance of the regions analyzed with respect to the thresholds beyond which structural system changes would occur. farmers in mediterranean regions may be closer to extreme weather conditions that make farming more unprofitable than in other regions. if temperatures become too high and/or water availability too low, even a high adaptive capacity may not allow farmers to cope anymore with "exposure" that has become too high. as was already stated by odum (1969) for natural ecosystems, stresses can increase stability, but when stresses are too sudden or too violent, adaptation may not be fast enough, and stresses decrease rather than increase stability. this study referred to wheat as is the most important crop in europe, and it is grown in almost all regions. we have not considered other indicators of agricultural performance, but found similar results for other crops such as maize zea mays l. ssp. mays and potato solanum tuberosum with more negative effects of higher temperature in temperate compared with mediterranean regions. the effects of climatic conditions on farmers' incomes are relatively small in europe (reidsma et al. 2007) as
What do "dismissive" audiences actively do?
deny climate change and possess rigid attitudes
What will results from this study do?
generalize only to those who accept that anthropogenic climate change is occurring
How many participants actively denied the existence of climate change and the science behind it?
a total of 18
scannell and gifford 73 reported an income of c$700,000, which was 11 standard deviations above the mean. this value was winsorized such that one standard deviation was added to the second highest score (e.g., field, 2005). of the 327 participants, 3 were missing more than 25% of their data, and so their data were removed. a missing-value analysis was then performed on the remaining data, with the exception of the demographic variables. this revealed that few values were missing; specifically, 83 data points were missing, which is less than 1% of the data. a total of 18 participants who had completed the surveys actively denied the existence of climate change and the science behind it (as indicated by their comments). these participants were removed from further analyses, in part, because their extreme attitudes rendered them outliers. in addition, this decision was informed by maibach et al.'s (2009) assertion that "dismissive" audiences actively deny climate change and possess rigid attitudes. the effectiveness of presenting climate change impacts as local or global would be irrelevant to an audience who does not believe in the science of climate change to begin with (fahnestock, 1986). as such, results from this study will generalize only to those who accept that anthropogenic climate change is occurring.
Why are projections regarding the effect of climate change on disease transmission necessarily long term?
as it is only possible to differentiate the effect of anthropogenic climate change from natural variation over several decades [15,42], these projections are necessarily long term (e.g. proportional changes in population at risk averaged for the 2030s or the 2050s), and usually at global or continental level
Why has much of the early work on applying climate change scenarios to disease transmission focused more on temperature than on precipitation changes?
for example, much of the early work in this area has focused more on temperature rather than precipitation changes, because these are comparatively easier to represent both in global climate models, and in terms of their effects on disease transmission
Which non-climatic factors have been incorporated into these improved models in recent years?
in recent years, there have been improvements in both the degree to which such models are validated against observed distributions and incidence in the past [20,41], and the extent to which they incorporate both the independent and interactive effects of non-climatic factors, such as changes in population size and distribution (e.g. urbanization rates), and economic development
there is now a substantial body of work applying scenarios of future climate change to models based either on the known effects of meteorological variables on the various processes within the disease transmission cycle, or the observed statistical relationships between climate and the spatial or temporal distribution of vector-borne disease these approaches have been used to generate projections of the potential effects of future climate change on trends in disease. in recent years, there have been improvements in both the degree to which such models are validated against observed distributions and incidence in the past [20,41], and the extent to which they incorporate both the independent and interactive effects of non-climatic factors, such as changes in population size and distribution (e.g. urbanization rates), and economic development such studies can therefore give broad indications of potential future effects of climate change, of the relative importance of climate versus other determinants, and of different diseases, and indicate areas that are likely to become more or less suitable for transmission in the future. as for attribution studies, however, there are important limitations on the application of such approaches to inform current decisions to protect populations from vector-borne diseases. first, the initial interest in scenario modelling was mainly to examine the effect of different scenarios of humaninduced climate change, and the degree to which these may be affected by different trajectories of greenhouse gas emissions, so as to inform global discussions on mitigation. as it is only possible to differentiate the effect of anthropogenic climate change from natural variation over several decades [15,42], these projections are necessarily long term (e.g. proportional changes in population at risk averaged for the 2030s or the 2050s), and usually at global or continental level. the majority of scenario studies therefore do not match closely to the shorter time-frames and narrower geographical and sectoral focus that characterize most disease control decisions. second, modelling approaches remain limited in the scope of mechanisms that they cover. for example, much of the early work in this area has focused more on temperature rather than precipitation changes, because these are comparatively easier to represent both in global climate models, and in terms of their effects on disease transmission. precipitation is at least as important for vector-borne disease transmission, but projections from climate models are considerably less consistent
Kyoto Protocol negotiations was completed in which year?
1997 was an important milestone because of the completion of the kyoto protocol negotiations
Which article was published in 1997?
with considerably less fanfare, 1997 was also the year in which local environment published its first article on the topic of cities and climate change (collier 1997
In 2005 Who hosted the meeting of twenty large cities toact on climate change?
in 2005, the mayor of london hosted a meeting of twenty large cities from around the world seeking to act on climate change
to many observers of climate change politics, 1997 was an important milestone because of the completion of the kyoto protocol negotiations. with considerably less fanfare, 1997 was also the year in which local environment published its first article on the topic of cities and climate change (collier 1997). by 1997, there was a growing movement of sub-national governments and local communities working to place climate change on the local agenda. these efforts were facilitated by the creation of three transnational city networks--climate alliance, cities for climate protection (ccp),1and energie-cite's--with several hundred members concentrated in north america and europe. a decade later, the networks of communities, cities and states responding to climate change have multiplied. existing networks have increased and diversified their membership. for example, the ccp network now has campaigns in south america, south east asia, australia and japan involving over 650 local governments. new networks have also been established. mirroring the g8 meeting in the uk in 2005, the mayor of london hosted a meeting of twenty large cities from around the world seeking to act on climate change. in may 2007, forty large cities, under the auspices of the c40 cities climate leadership group and sponsored by the clinton climate initiative, met in new york to discuss their role in mitigating climate change. while the framework of international negotiations remains important, cities are now acknowledged as a critical arena in which the governance of climate change is taking place. local environment vol. 12, no. 5, 447-456, october 2007
In which condition tb is approximately 2.2 years?
for a planet with effective temperature 255 k and heat capacity provided by 63 m of water (as in our 3-d experiments), tb is approximately 2.2 years
What is the importance of feedbacks
feedbacks modify the response time since they come into play only gradually as the warming occurs, the initial flux of heat into the ocean being independent of feedbacks
What is the feature of a planet with f1?
thus, this planet with f 1 exponentially approaches its new equilibrium temperature with e-folding time 2.2 years
t t (t t )[1 exp( )] b t t (21) where the blackbody no-feedback e-folding time is t t s 3 b o c 4 t (22) for a planet with effective temperature 255 k and heat capacity provided by 63 m of water (as in our 3-d experiments), tb is approximately 2.2 years. thus, this planet with f 1 exponentially approaches its new equilibrium temperature with e-folding time 2.2 years. feedbacks modify the response time since they come into play only gradually as the warming occurs, the initial flux of heat into the ocean being independent of feedbacks. it is apparent that the actual e-folding time for a simple mixed layer heat capacity is
What was the period for decline in water use ?
there were also declines in water use during the 1987 - 1991 drought
What was the consumption of water for agricultural use ?
agricultural water use stood at about 61,859 million m3( ~ 50 maf) by the end of the 20th century
What was the reason for overall decrease in consumption of water in 1980s ?
although domestic use has steadily increased, declines in agricultural and industrial withdrawals produced a decrease in overall water use in the 1980s
(fig. 3 c ). there were also declines in water use during the 1987 - 1991 drought. agricultural water use stood at about 61,859 million m3( ~ 50 maf) by the end of the 20th century. although domestic use has steadily increased, declines in agricultural and industrial withdrawals produced a decrease in overall water use in the 1980s followed by a gradual increase over the 1990s in which increasing domestic consumption has played a signi fi cant (33%) role (fig. 3 c ). the net result of increasing population, agriculture, and industry over the 20th century is water use in the southwest estimated to have totaled 77,425 million m3
how much does the USA comprise of the world economy?
the usa comprises around 25 per cent of the world economy
what will be the result if If the carbon intensity of consumption in industrialized countries were similar to that in developing countries?
if the carbon intensity of consumption in industrialized countries were similar to that in developing countries (it may, indeed, in aggregate be greater since the latter tend to be
how much does the USA comprise of the world economy?
the usa comprises around 25 per cent of the world economy
if current carbon consumption provides a better measure of the responsibility for global warming (leaving out, for the moment, the past consumption), it follows that the scale of the compensating financial transfers from industrialized countries to developed ones will have to be on a scale significantly greater than currently under discussion following bali. to put it into perspective, the usa comprises around 25 per cent of the world economy, with the eu at around 20 per cent. adding in canada, japan, and australia takes the number over 50 per cent. if the carbon intensity of consumption in industrialized countries were similar to that in developing countries (it may, indeed, in aggregate be greater since the latter tend to be
How much does it cost to curb the effects of global climate change?
according to the uk government commissioned stern review on the economics of climate change in 2006, if we do everything we can now to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions and ensure we adapt to the future eff ects of climate change, the average estimated cost is 1% of the world gross domestic product (gdp) every year
Do the effects that global climate change cause cost money to address?
however, if we do nothing, the eff ects of climate change could cost 5-20% of the world gdp every year
Have the livelihoods of people been factored into the effects of global climate change?
the potential costs or benefi ts to global health of mitigating and adapting have not yet been established
what is the cost of avoiding climate change? according to the uk government commissioned stern review on the economics of climate change in 2006, if we do everything we can now to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions and ensure we adapt to the future eff ects of climate change, the average estimated cost is 1% of the world gross domestic product (gdp) every year.14 however, if we do nothing, the eff ects of climate change could cost 5-20% of the world gdp every year. these fi gures have been disputed. pielke and colleagues5 argue that the cost of converting the global economy to low carbon could be more than 1% of the world gdp because global emissions have risen faster than the worst predictions. stern has recently revised the estimate to 2% of the world gdp. however, parry and colleagues12 suggest that the eff ects and the associated costs of global warming have been underestimated by the ipcc1 and stern.14 the potential costs or benefi ts to global health of mitigating and adapting have not yet been established. even if the benefi t-cost ratio of solving global warming is less than that suggested by stern, the ethical issue of preventing deaths of tens of millions of people and the increase in human misery for billions is clear.
Which type of soil in the study proved to have a positive and significant impact on net crop revenue?
all soils except andosols turned out to be insignificant and reduce the significance of other variables considerably and we therefore dropped all other soils. the results indicate that andosols have a positive and significant impact on net crop revenue, which conforms to a priori expectations because andosols are quite fertile and thus suited for crop production
How does education correlate with crop productivity?
we did not discover any significant effect of education on crop productivity but the sign of the coefficient implies that education is associated with higher crop revenue
How does farm size influence crop productivity?
farm size exhibits a u-shaped relationship with crop revenue, implying that large farm size may be associated with higher productivity
introducing flow and hydrological variables reduces the f statistic marginally from 3.73 to 3.27. however the r-squared increases by almost 100%. the results imply a hill-shaped relationship between mean flow and net revenue, and both coefficients are statistically different from zero at the 10% level. all soils except andosols turned out to be insignificant and reduce the significance of other variables considerably and we therefore dropped all other soils. the results indicate that andosols have a positive and significant impact on net crop revenue, which conforms to a priori expectations because andosols are quite fertile and thus suited for crop production. finally we tested the impact of some selected household level variables. of these variables raises the f statistic from 3.27 to 5.30, while the r squared doubles. most of the household level variables have a significant impact on crop revenue. livestock ownership dummy, farm size and wage rates are inversely correlated with crop revenue. farm size exhibits a u-shaped relationship with crop revenue, implying that large farm size may be associated with higher productivity. main and secondary occupation of household head, religion of household head and average number of years of education of the household members are positively correlated with net crop revenue. household size, introduced as a proxy for household labor (or remotely population density) has a positive and significant impact on net crop revenue livestock ownership dummy has a negative and significant impact on net revenue. this implies competition rather than complementarity between farming and livestock keeping. we did not discover any significant effect of education on crop productivity but the sign of the coefficient implies that education is associated with higher crop revenue. irrigation has a large positive impact on crop revenue, implying the importance of adaptations to counter the impact of climate change.
How can you start to improve climate change?
recognizing one's contributions to the problem, and thus acknowledging feelings of complicity and guilt, may or may not lead to remedial action regarding climate change.55,142as suggested by whitmarsh,143there is an asymmetry of behavioral intentions and the actual effects of behavior in terms of emission reductions. behavior in response to climate change consists largely of token actions that can broadly be described as environmental (e.g., recycling) but that do little to reduce ghg emissions
how the new discoveries about climate change started?
there is now much evidence on the gap between knowing about climate change and changing behavior to help mitigate.139,140 qualitative research has explored this disconnect and provides valuable insights into how it can be addressed
What has been the most difficult thing to start improving climate changes?
lack of a sense of urgency vis-`a-vis other, more immediate and pressing issues certainly play a role. but denial is also important in remediating the cognitive dissonance that climate change can induce
there is now much evidence on the gap between knowing about climate change and changing behavior to help mitigate.139,140 qualitative research has explored this disconnect and provides valuable insights into how it can be addressed. lack of a sense of urgency vis-`a-vis other, more immediate and pressing issues certainly play a role. but denial is also important in remediating the cognitive dissonance that climate change can induce.141recognizing one's contributions to the problem, and thus acknowledging feelings of complicity and guilt, may or may not lead to remedial action regarding climate change.55,142as suggested by whitmarsh,143there is an asymmetry of behavioral intentions and the actual effects of behavior in terms of emission reductions. behavior in response to climate change consists largely of token actions that can broadly be described as environmental (e.g., recycling) but that do little to reduce ghg emissions.143this has been attributed to a lack of knowledge about how to reduce emissions effectively143(see also ref 103). further, there are significant social, institutional and practical barriers to public engagement.44,45,54thus, even people who want to mitigate are faced with obstacles or change their behavior in ways that are unlikely to yield effective emission reductions.84
What are the three things data sources need to be for evaluating progress on adaptation globally?
for the purposes of evaluating progress on adaptation globally, data sources need to: (i) provide information on adaptation for a large number of countries to facilitate national-level comparative analysis, (ii) be systematically collected and follow standardized guidelines so comparison reflects real trends in adaptation as opposed to nature of data collection, (iii) provide sufficient detail for adaptations to be characterized, and (iv) be consistent in reporting over time and be collected at regular intervals
What will the selection of approach reflect?
the selection of approach will ultimately reflect the needs of users and goals of adaptation tracking
What can detailed qualitative measures be used to provide?
detailed qualitative measures can also be used to provide information to policy makers and to those providing technical expertise to them on options that can be pursued. here, the ability of an approach to provide comparative insights with other regions, and also capture the processes through which adaptations were developed for purposes of evaluating long-term effectiveness are important
appropriate data sources need to be identified to facilitate the development and tracking of indicators. for the purposes of evaluating progress on adaptation globally, data sources need to: (i) provide information on adaptation for a large number of countries to facilitate national-level comparative analysis, (ii) be systematically collected and follow standardized guidelines so comparison reflects real trends in adaptation as opposed to nature of data collection, (iii) provide sufficient detail for adaptations to be characterized, and (iv) be consistent in reporting over time and be collected at regular intervals. as noted above, few existing data sources meet these requirements, and there has been little work examining how current data sources could be used to systematically track adaptation. research on general policy evaluation and emerging scholarship in the climate change field can provide a foundation for conceptualizing and developing new frameworks for adaptation tracking at the national level. in the following sections we propose a typology of approaches that provide potential starting points for development of a global adaptation tracking framework (table 1). while we acknowledge that these approaches intersect, each has its distinct attributes and the typology can help us begin to discuss and evaluate the different ways by which adaptation can be tracked. in developing the typology, our intention is not to rank or identify which approach is "best" but rather outline how and where different approaches can be used and for what purposes. the selection of approach will ultimately reflect the needs of users and goals of adaptation tracking. national governments, for example, can be spurred to action by seeing how their progress compares to that of other nations. both global intergovernmental organizations and civil society can use comparative quantitative measures as a source of accountability and to identify and prioritize broad-level intervention needs (e.g., to inform adaptation funding decisions). in these instances, the ability of an approach to systematically track adaptation across regions and sectors drawing upon standardized data (i.e., generality) is likely to be highly valued. in other situations, the ability of an approach to provide quantifiable estimates of avoided negative impacts due to adaptation (i.e., additionality) may be a priority (e.g., for adaptation funding through the unfccc). detailed qualitative measures can also be used to provide information to policy makers and to those providing technical expertise to them on options that can be pursued. here, the ability of an approach to provide comparative insights with other regions, and also capture the processes through which adaptations were developed for purposes of evaluating long-term effectiveness are important. outcome evaluation approaches: strengths and limitations for monitoring adaptation outcome evaluation approaches measure adaptation progress and effectiveness in relation to avoided climate change impacts (i.e., the ultimate goal of adaptation). while often treated as a gold standard in the general monitoring and evaluation literature, they have not been widely used in an adaptation context, reflecting the difficulty of attributing reduced impact specifically to adaptation, where success may not be apparent for decades and where impacts averted in the future are tricky to estimate. this temporal disconnect-- proactive intervention to avert future theorized but unmeasured impacts--differentiates adaptation tracking efforts from standard approaches to outcome evaluation. nevertheless, outcome approaches are commonly used in the general policy evaluation literature and for issues of
How did the IPCC define Climate Change?
average weather', usually over a 30-year period
What was one interpretation for more conflict during cold periods?
a plausible interpretation of this is that agricultural production suffers in the cold periods
Is the link between conflict and climate change firm?
the link to global warming is tenuous and questions have been raised about the robustness of this finding
in reviewing an article for this issue, william nordhaus10was rather critical: 'this is a paper about weather, not climate'. the glossary in ipcc (2007) defines climate as 'average weather', usually over a 30-year period.11most of the studies reported here operate over shorter time periods, so this criticism has considerable substance, although hendrix salehyan (2012) and koubi et al. (2012) measure climate variation as deviations from long-term averages. a few recent studies take a very long-term perspective (e.g. zhang et al., 2006 for china and tol wagner, 2010 for europe). with data for a whole millennium,12they conclude that war was more frequent in colder periods. however, tol wagner add that the relationship weakens in the industrialized world. a plausible interpretation of this is that agricultural production suffers in the cold periods, but that with increasing industrialization the world moves away from malthusian constraints. the conflict data used in these studies have not been well tested and for obvious reasons there is a lack of control variables. based on regularities observed by historians in the distant past and using ucdp/prio conflict data for the period 1950-2004, hsiang, meng cane (2011) argue that the el nin~o/southern oscillation (enso) has a significant influence on the onset of civil conflict. the link to global warming is tenuous and questions have been raised about the robustness of this finding. but if it holds up, it provides another indication that armed conflict may be related to the climate even in the modern age. in any case, better integration between the long-term climate studies and the studies of 'weather' changes reported here, is a priority item on the research agenda.
Is Canada's economy susceptible to climate change?
as a country that is highly dependent on trade, canada is sensitive to the impacts of climate change transmitted through international markets
Is there any relation between domestic and international economies?
there are strong interrelationships between domestic and international economies
Are economic sectors isolated?
economic sectors are not isolated, and both impacts and adaptation actions for one sector would have implications for many others
there are strong interrelationships between domestic and international economies. as a country that is highly dependent on trade, canada is sensitive to the impacts of climate change transmitted through international markets. in other words, direct impacts of climate change in other countries that affect the global supply of or demand for goods would affect the canadian economy. at present, there is little research that specifically examines positive or negative international market spillovers in canada or elsewhere. in addition, economic sectors are not isolated, and both impacts and adaptation actions for one sector would have implications for many others. different sectors share resources, or depend on others for inputs.(53)for example, agriculture, recreation, hydroelectric power generation, and municipal and other industrial users all share common water resources. increased conflict between these sectors would be expected if climate change resulted in reduced water availability see 'water resources' chapter).
Give example of two community vulnerabilities.
climate change and climate policy
likewise, varying community vulnerabilities, both to climate change and climate policy, have led to a range of locally developed responses and practices. what remains absent is a responsive information network that would allow communities to track and communicate their experiences-- especially with distant, equally vulnerable groups--and to defend such local experimental decisions in national and international arenas. the results of carbon sequestration experiments in indian social forestry, for example, championed precisely because of local community vulnerabilities (poffenberger et al. 2002), are unknown to those conducting similar efforts elsewhere or even to those coordinating national and international climate governance regimes. as a result, such experiments are more vulnerable to elimination and change in an ad hoc national context, despite calls in the scientific literature for just these sorts of interventions (niles et al. 2002).
When was Eiffel Tower built?
the eiffel tower built in 1889
where higher buildings are planned to construct?
new higher buildings in the city's outskirts
Why higher buildings are planned to construct outskirts?
a time when there is growing pressure on space, but plans are only being considered for new higher buildings in the city's outskirts
paris has one of the most untouched skylines of any city in the world, and is now considering lifting a 30-year ban on skyscrapers at the edges of the city. in 1974 they outlawed the building of any building above eight storeys over an area of 40 square miles. the move comes at a time when there is growing pressure on space, but plans are only being considered for new higher buildings in the city's outskirts, not in the historic centre, where the only high buildings are the eiffel tower built in 1889 to a height of 324 m 12 and the montparnasse tower, with 58 floors. it may be that major corporations that are now extremely concerned not to be situated in, or near ' target ' buildings, may in future favour more ' secure ' cities, free from such buildings.
What is the sediment yield curve based on?
sediment yield curve is based on the empirical relationship developed by langbein and schumm (1958
What would the dashed lines indicate?
the dashed lines indicate the relative increase in resistance to erosion that vegetation provides as the driving force of precipitation increases
Where does the greater divergence occur?
the greatest divergence in the lines occurs in semi-arid climates, where there is suf fi cient precipitation to drive erosion, but a limited amount of frequently disturbed vegetation to stabilize hillslopes from erosion
fig. 1. conceptual plot of sediment yield (solid line) relative to hydroclimate and the regulating role of vegetation. sediment yield curve is based on the empirical relationship developed by langbein and schumm (1958) the dashed lines indicate the relative increase in resistance to erosion that vegetation provides as the driving force of precipitation increases. the greatest divergence in the lines occurs in semi-arid climates, where there is suf fi cient precipitation to drive erosion, but a limited amount of frequently disturbed vegetation to stabilize hillslopes from erosion. the result is greater sediment yield in semi-arid climates. 3 j.r. goode et al. geomorphology 139-140 (2012) 1 - 15
What else is important in addition to addressing the ecology of the school in a single study?
in addition to addressing the ecology of the school in a single study, examining interactions between school and individual characteristics is also important
For example, students who believe bullying is acceptable should be more likely to engage in this behavior in what type of schools?
for example, students who believe bullying is acceptable should be more likely to engage in this behavior in schools where teachers look the other way and sanctions are infrequent as compared to schools that have a low tolerance for bullying
What does a comprehensive understanding of bullying require?
a comprehensive understanding of bullying requires the identification of how student and school characteristics interact
in addition to addressing the ecology of the school in a single study, examining interactions between school and individual characteristics is also important. that is, do individual characteristics linked to bullying behavior have different effects on actual behavior contingent on the nature of the school context? for example, students who believe bullying is acceptable should be more likely to engage in this behavior in schools where teachers look the other way and sanctions are infrequent as compared to schools that have a low tolerance for bullying. a comprehensive understanding of bullying requires the identification of how student and school characteristics interact. the present study addressed this issue as well.
What are some characteristics of optimists?
optimists tended to be high ses, white, nonreligious, conservative, republican urban men
How do people belonging to the Religious Right characterize different risks?
the religious right tended to be white, highly religious, conservative, republican rural men. they perceived moral issues such as legal abortion, homosexuality, and marijuana as very great risks to u.s. society, but saw nuclear power, global warming, and the iraq war as relatively low risks
How is society segmented when it comes to promoting climate xhange prevention?
although the example provided here focuses on segmenting the general public for purposes related to promoting climate change prevention, the rationale for segmenting audiences and tailoring messages is equally compelling when targeting more specialized audiences, especially those who influence the attributes of place (e.g., elected and appointed government officials, small business owners, corporate officials
optimists (21% of the total sample). optimists tended to be high ses, white, nonreligious, conservative, republican urban men. they perceived all of the hazards, including global warming, as relatively low risks to u.s. society. they also tended to hold strong anti-egalitarian and pro-individualist values. * the religious right (16% of the total sample). the religious right tended to be white, highly religious, conservative, republican rural men. they perceived moral issues such as legal abortion, homosexuality, and marijuana as very great risks to u.s. society, but saw nuclear power, global warming, and the iraq war as relatively low risks. they held strong hierarchical values, and like optimists, also held strong anti-egalitarian and pro-individualist values. this study supports the view that there are diverse audiences within the u.s. population, each predisposed to interpret global warming, along with other hazards, in different ways, drawing on different life circumstances, experience, social networks, and value orientations. this understanding of the underlying worldview of the various audience segments could be used to tailor messages that resonate with the values and predispositions of each group. although the example provided here focuses on segmenting the general public for purposes related to promoting climate change prevention, the rationale for segmenting audiences and tailoring messages is equally compelling when targeting more specialized audiences, especially those who influence the attributes of place (e.g., elected and appointed government officials, small business owners, corporate officials). moreover, segmentation will also be an asset when pursuing climate change-adaptation objectives.
How can marine reserves help the ecosystem?
marine reserves is a precautionary response that can promote resilience of marine ecosystems that may, in turn, assist in the adaptation to climate change
What allows systems to maintain at a desired climate level?
actions that allow systems to stay within a boundary of their desired state, or to return to it quickly if perturbed, are valuable
What is climate resilience?
n terms of climate change is that if a current state of the world is desirable
the relevance of resilience in terms of climate change is that if a current state of the world is desirable, actions that allow systems to stay within a boundary of their desired state, or to return to it quickly if perturbed, are valuable. consequently, management instruments that promote resilience, all else equal, are desirable. for example, it has been shown that even with optimal tac setting appropriately designed marine reserves can increase both holling and pimm-resilience thus, the establishment of appropriately sized and located marine reserves is a precautionary response that can promote resilience of marine ecosystems that may, in turn, assist in the adaptation to climate change.
What are some of the greatest to public health that have been achieved through environmental interventions?
notable examples include the legislation and works programmes of the 19th century to improve water and sanitation in london, and the fi rst clean air act of 1956 after the london smog of 1952, which was followed in 1968 by further legislation
What major pieces of legislation responded to the urgent environment and health problems of the day?
notable examples include the legislation and works programmes of the 19th century to improve water and sanitation in london, and the fi rst clean air act of 1956 after the london smog of 1952, which was followed in 1968 by further legislation
What resurgence of infectious diseases in the mid 19th century effected the urban centres of England?
the resurgence of infectious diseases (cholera, tuberculosis, and smallpox) in the urban centres of england in the mid 19th century
some of the greatest benefi ts to public health have been achieved through environmental interventions. notable examples include the legislation and works programmes of the 19th century to improve water and sanitation in london, and the fi rst clean air act of 1956 after the london smog of 1952, which was followed in 1968 by further legislation. these major pieces of legislation responded to the urgent environment and health problems of the day. they both entailed major changes and required considerable resources to implement. from the perspective of the 21st century, it seems obvious that london needed a proper sewage system and cleaner air. although it is diffi cult to make a formal analysis of the costs and benefi ts of the changes needed, there are surely few who would now think them unmerited or, indeed, who would consider them as anything less than vital steps in the improvement of public health. the challenges relating to energy use today are no less urgent. as with the resurgence of infectious diseases (cholera, tuberculosis, and smallpox) in the urban centres of england in the mid 19th century and the pervasive industrial pollution of the mid-20th century, in this era of climate instability and emerging eff ects throughout the biosphere, public health must again become the focus for development. but the problems and solutions are now global, rather than local and national, in scale. throughout this series we have presented evidence about the connections between energy use (or lack of it) and adverse eff ects on population health. some of the pathways are straightforward, others are more complex. there are huge burdens of illness, mortality, and lost potential relating to lack of access to clean household energy for more than 2 billion of the world's population, large health eff ects from outdoor air pollution due to fuel combustion, substantial eff ects on workers in energy industries, and a growing crisis of global climate change stemming largely from the unrestrained use of fossil energy resources by the people living in the richer economies. solutions to tackling both climate change and lack of access exist, given suffi cient political will. if successful, the health dividend now and in the future promises to be very great indeed. the clean-energy transition can become the fi rst, necessary, though insuffi cient, step toward sustainable development. it will be for future generations to judge whether we, who perceived the problems, had the vision and commitment to meet the challenge at its critical stage.
What does the Indian media present?
on one hand, the indian media present climate change in a far more scientifically representative frame than many western media have done, almost completely depoliticising the question of the existence of climate change (boykoff and boykoff 2004 
What replaces the depoliticisation of science?
this depoliticisation of science is replaced by a highly contentious political frame that defines attitudes towards climate policy-making
What does the 'normative assumption' state?
the 'normative assumption' that there is a neo-colonial desire to suppress india's growth through unrestrained climate change impacts and restrictive policy
(rajagopal 2001 158; parameswaran 1997 6). in this context, as one free-lance writer lamented, the 'contributions of the industrial elite [to india's rising emissions] are papered over, lost sight of--denied altogether'. on one hand, the indian media present climate change in a far more scientifically representative frame than many western media have done, almost completely depoliticising the question of the existence of climate change (boykoff and boykoff 2004 ). however, this depoliticisation of science is replaced by a highly contentious political frame that defines attitudes towards climate policy-making. the 'normative assumption' that there is a neo-colonial desire to suppress india's growth through unrestrained climate change impacts and restrictive policy has fuelled a nationalistic reaction in the press that reinforces the non-compliance of india and its public with any binding emissions targets (power 2003: 136-137 in radcliffe 2005 6). such an assumption sets imminent post-kyoto climate negotiations in india within a lessthan-compliant--and less than ideal--context of public discourse in the country.
What have defined the various studies on costing adaptation?
the various studies on costing adaptation have defined and dealt with ecosystems in different ways
What The World Bank mention  when examining climatic risks?
when examining climatic risks mentions natural resources in terms of recognising the ecosystem services provided
What Stern Review refers?
the stern review (2006) refers to natural ecosystems in the chapter on adaptation, while the undp report (2007) has one passing reference to the vulnerability of ecosystems in its chapter on adaptation
the various studies on costing adaptation have defined and dealt with ecosystems in different ways. the world bank (2006) when examining climatic risks mentions natural resources in terms of recognising the ecosystem services provided. the stern review (2006) refers to natural ecosystems in the chapter on adaptation, while the undp report (2007) has one passing reference to the vulnerability of ecosystems in its chapter on adaptation. the oxfam report refers to impacts on natural resources and ecosystems (oxfam, 2007, page 11) and recognises the need to protect ecosystems and existing infrastructure 'so that they are resilient to the coming stress from climate change' (oxfam, 2007, page 15). the unfccc report (2007) is the only study to deal explicitly with 'natural ecosystems'1 and this is similar to tol (2002) who includes 'natural (unmanaged) ecosystems' in his estimates of damage costs of climate change. thus, while all the studies mention ecosystems, most do not define them and there is an issue as to whether ecosystem services are or should be included in any assessment of the costs of adaptation.
When did Dr. Seth join the IRI?
prior to joining the iri in 1999
What does Dr. Seth research?
dr. seth researches the role of regional processes in climate and climate variability using observations and nested regional climate models
When did Dr. Seth accept a position with the University of Connecticut?
in july 2005, dr. seth accepted a position with the university of connecticut
dr. seth researches the role of regional processes in climate and climate variability using observations and nested regional climate models. prior to joining the iri in 1999, she conducted research as a post-doctoral fellow and noaa grant principal investigator at the national center for atmospheric research. as a lead developer of the iri's climate monitoring and information systems, dr. seth developed research methods to improve understanding of the evolution of societal impacts related to climate anomalies. in july 2005, dr. seth accepted a position with the university of connecticut, and simultaneously holds an adjunct associate research scientist appointment with the iri.
What does the decision-maker express?
their imprecision as well as point estimates
One advantage of explicit consideration of imprecision?
1) a more accurate reflection of the state of mind of users, and (2) a screening out of a significant number of alternatives
Are the average kernel sizes from the two methods different?
the average kernel sizes from the tradeoff weighting method with ranges and the electre method are not statistically different
kernel sizes and ranges of ranks from electre i and tradeoff questions with ranges are compared in table iv. the average kernel sizes from the tradeoff weighting method with ranges and the electre method are not statistically different. the tradeoff method with ranges reduced the set of nondominated alternatives by more than half, while allowing the decision-maker to express their imprecision as well as point estimates. this outcome implies that results from point estimates of weights (yielding a complete ranking of alternatives) may inspire a false sense of precision in the rankings. in other words, our participants were not certain enough of their answers (did not have sufficiently narrow weighting relationships) to yield complete rankings of alternatives in all cases, although use of a point estimate forces this complete ranking. advantages of explicit consideration of imprecision include: (1) a more accurate reflection of the state of mind of users, and (2) a screening out of a significant number of alternatives.
a global infrastructure?
elements of a global infrastructure for climate dataset curation and stewardship are in place
based on data centers recognized?
partly based on data centers recognized within the icsu world data system (icsu 2013
Restrictions stemming?
restrictions stemming from a perceived commercial or strategic value of climate data are more difficult to resolve
elements of a global infrastructure for climate dataset curation and stewardship are in place, partly based on data centers recognized within the icsu world data system (icsu 2013). however, the data policies of many providers still prevent free and open data access to ecv datasets, despite progress in response to repeated calls for change (uhlir et al. 2009). intellectual property issues that compromise open access to climate records (nelson 2009) should be overcome by introducing data identifiers [e.g., digital object identifiers (dois)] as standard practice, thus incentivizing data sharing through recognition of authorship. restrictions stemming from a perceived commercial or strategic value of climate data are more difficult to resolve.
Are the potential impacts of climate change on Canadian agriculture fully understood?
although understanding of the potential impacts of climate change on canadian agriculture has improved, a number of key knowledge gaps, particularly with respect to the process of agricultural adaptation, need to be addressed in order to fully assess vulnerability
Could new methodologies for assessing vulnerability contribute to address knowledge gaps?
increased use of new methodologies for assessing vulnerability would help to address these gaps
How is the identification of thresholds important?
another important focus for agricultural research is the identification of thresholds. the agriculture sector has proven itself to be highly adaptive, but this adaptation takes place within a certain range of climate conditions
although understanding of the potential impacts of climate change on canadian agriculture has improved, a number of key knowledge gaps, particularly with respect to the process of agricultural adaptation, need to be addressed in order to fully assess vulnerability. as with other sectors, emphasis has been placed predominantly on the biophysical impacts of climate change, with less attention given to socio-economic impacts. research on climate change impacts and adaptation in the food-processing sector is also sparse. there is a need for more integrated costing studies, which consider all potential impacts of climate change on the sector, as well as adaptation options. such information is necessary not only for domestic issues, but also to assess comparative advantages within global agricultural commodity markets. comparisons between studies and regions will be assisted by more standardized use of climate change scenarios and crop production models. research is also needed to determine what barriers exist to adaptation in the agriculture sector and how these can be addressed. increased use of new methodologies for assessing vulnerability would help to address these gaps. another important focus for agricultural research is the identification of thresholds. the agriculture sector has proven itself to be highly adaptive, but this adaptation takes place within a certain range of climate conditions. new adaptive measures may serve to expand this range somewhat, but there exist climatic thresholds beyond which activities are not economically viable and substantive changes in practices would be required. an improved understanding of where these critical thresholds lie will contribute to the development of appropriate adaptation strategies. needs with respect to primary agricultural production, as identified within the recent literature cited in this chapter, include the following:
What is urgent research required on?
how to manage environmental migration in a gender-sensitive way
What does research on how to manage environmental migration in a gender-sensitive way include?
recognising and responding to gender roles and responsibilities around natural resources, and may include ensuring that scarce resources are available for receiving communities, and that water is provided for in-migrants
Why must research ve undertaken into the impacts of natural resource depletion and limited access on intra-household conflict?
this is in order to establish policies and practices which lessen the likelihood of arguments over scarce natural resources which may result in gender-based violence
urgent research is required on how to manage environmental migration in a gender-sensitive way. this includes recognising and responding to gender roles and responsibilities around natural resources, and may include ensuring that scarce resources are available for receiving communities, and that water is provided for in-migrants. research is further needed to establish how best to respond to violent conflict over natural resources in a gender-sensitive way, taking in to account the needs of women and girls, boys and men. finally, it is essential that research is undertaken into the impacts of natural resource depletion and limited access on intra-household conflict. this is in order to establish policies and practices which lessen the likelihood of arguments over scarce natural resources which may result in gender-based violence.
What is scale and aggregation?
scale and aggregation form one element of a wider set of concerns related to the selection of measures that are reliable, robust and representative
What is the meaning of transparency in approach?
by transparency in approach, we refer to the practice of presenting a methodological account or conceptual framework that is clear and precise, free from ambiguity and easy to comprehend, and contains a full account of assumptions and potential strengths and weaknesses
How does teh defination of vulnerability vary?
definitions of vulnerability vary (see, for example, liverman 1990; dow 1992; downing et al. 1995; cutter 1996; kelly and adger 2000; turner et al. 2003) and the particular meaning of the term used in any analysis can be critical for the way that vulnerability may be studied or measured. one key distinction that has emerged is between vulnerability as the end point or as the starting point of an analysis (kelly and adger 2000). the 'end-point' approach uses the term vulnerability to denote the residual climate change impacts once adaptation has occurred. previous studies of vulnerability at the global scale have mostly focused on particular sectors (such as water, agriculture or health) or aspects of exposure (such as flooding coastal areas) in order to develop sector-specific indicators of vulnerability (such as the number of affected people, water availability or food production per capita ). (see, for example, parry et al. 1999; parry 2000; arnell
in the next section, we distinguish between two common approaches to the concept of vulnerability, identifying a process-based approach as most likely to result in policy-relevant conclusions. we then go on to consider how the policy usefulness of indicator studies can be enhanced, focusing on three aspects of the formulation of vulnerability indicators that have emerged from the studies considered in this assessment and that we consider particularly critical in the development of a credible set of measures. the first area commonly cited as a critical concern in developing national-scale indicators (cf. brooks and adger 2003) is that of scale and aggregation. scale and aggregation form one element of a wider set of concerns related to the selection of measures that are reliable, robust and representative. second, we consider transparency in approach, discussing alternative methodological approaches and their implications. by transparency in approach, we refer to the practice of presenting a methodological account or conceptual framework that is clear and precise, free from ambiguity and easy to comprehend, and contains a full account of assumptions and potential strengths and weaknesses. finally, we discuss a serious deficiency in existing studies, the limited testing and verification of indicators and of the validity of underlying conceptual frameworks. we consider how previous studies have approached these three issues and, identifying best practice, suggest ways in which policy usefulness can be enhanced in future indicator studies. 3. assessing vulnerability in the previous section, we concluded that social conditions related to vulnerability have been integrated in past indicator studies to some extent, but the potential value of this research for adaptation policy assessment has yet to be realised. in this section, we argue that emerging understanding of vulnerability as a pre-existing state focuses attention on the processes creating these conditions. we examine how such a focus can enhance policy usefulness of indicator studies by guiding the selection of indicators that capture the processes shaping the state of vulnerability. definitions of vulnerability vary (see, for example, liverman 1990; dow 1992; downing et al. 1995; cutter 1996; kelly and adger 2000; turner et al. 2003) and the particular meaning of the term used in any analysis can be critical for the way that vulnerability may be studied or measured. one key distinction that has emerged is between vulnerability as the end point or as the starting point of an analysis (kelly and adger 2000). the 'end-point' approach uses the term vulnerability to denote the residual climate change impacts once adaptation has occurred. previous studies of vulnerability at the global scale have mostly focused on particular sectors (such as water, agriculture or health) or aspects of exposure (such as flooding coastal areas) in order to develop sector-specific indicators of vulnerability (such as the number of affected people, water availability or food production per capita ). (see, for example, parry et al. 1999; parry 2000; arnell
Who design marine reserves?
designing marine reserves 155 practitioners who wish to design marine reserves to achieve all three objectives simultaneously
Provide safety and climate networks coach liku inranava?
here we provide, for the first time, an integrated set of ecological guidelines (table 1) that practitioners can use to design marine reserve networks to maximize benefits for fisheries management, biodiversity conservation and climate change adaptation simultaneously
How can face climate change?
improved fisheries management also benefits climate change adaptation, through the protection of key fisheries species that play a critical role in maintaining ecosystem resilience (e.g., herbivores
designing marine reserves 155 practitioners who wish to design marine reserves to achieve all three objectives simultaneously. recent scientific advances also necessitate refining advice for marine reserve design. here we provide, for the first time, an integrated set of ecological guidelines (table 1) that practitioners can use to design marine reserve networks to maximize benefits for fisheries management, biodiversity conservation and climate change adaptation simultaneously. implementing these guidelines will also provide a more robust approach to achieving each objective. for example, protecting climate resilient areas to achieve biodiversity conservation by maintaining critical habitats, also benefits fisheries management since habitat loss is a major threat to coastal fisheries in the face of climate and ocean change. improved fisheries management also benefits climate change adaptation, through the protection of key fisheries species that play a critical role in maintaining ecosystem resilience (e.g., herbivores). field practitioners are already applying these guidelines (table 1) to the design of the coral triangle mpa system (walton et al. 2014) and individual mpa networks within the coral triangle (e.g., tun mustapha park, malaysia: weeks et al. 2014) and beyond. since each of these guidelines are important for designing marine reserve networks to achieve all three objectives, full application of the guidelines will maximize the benefits for fisheries management, biodiversity conservation and climate change adaptation. these guidelines will also provide additional benefits for tourism management, since they will ensure that healthy ecosystems and populations of charismatic species of value to the tourism industry are maintained (e.g., sharks, large reef fishes, and turtles). in practice, it is often difficult to apply ecological guidelines due to information gaps (particularly regarding identifying climate resilient areas) and socioeconomic, cultural, and political considerations (e.g., mccay and jones 2011). therefore these guidelines must contribute to larger planning processes that include identifying and prioritising high priority information needs, and designing marine reserves networks to achieve ecological outcomes while complementing human uses and values, and aligning with local legal, political, and institutional requirements (knight and cowling 2007; christie et al. 2009a). well-defined guidelines, such as those in table 1, can provide a foundation for reserve design against which tradeoffs between ecological and other factors can be evaluated. when required to compromise in the application of these guidelines, practitioners should prioritize applying ecological guidelines regarding representation and replication of major habitats and minimizing and avoiding local threats, since application of these guidelines increases the likelihood of protecting the range of species, habitats, and processes of importance, and of ensuring against the impacts of unpredictable disturbances. in addition, guidelines regarding protecting critical, special, and unique areas and the size, spacing, location, and duration of marine reserves can add significant benefits for achieving all three objectives. since climate change impacts are likely to increase in frequency and severity, it will also be increasingly important to identify and protect refugia that have the best chance of surviving in the long term. to ensure the long-term sustainability of tropical marine ecosystems and the ecosystem services they provide, marine reserves should be integrated within broader spatial planning and management frameworks that address all threats. adaptive management systems should also be used that allow practitioners to refine the design as more information becomes available or as the ecological and social context changes (wet and salm 2003; iucn-wcpa 2008).
What is the study of the problem of climate change?
the exploration of the climate change issue clearly raises a number of questions and several insights about mne strategy and fsa-csa configurations that may also be interesting for scholars that work on more 'mainstream' topics in international business
Which includes climate change?
climate change is an exemplary, perhaps even unique, issue to investigate how mnes respond to socially relevant issues of sustainability, because it involves fossil fuel production and consumption
What are the characteristics of climate change?
many mnes (particularly in energy-intensive industries) recognize the strategic impact and, accordingly, mention activities that seem to hint at initiatives to develop green fsas or change key fsas. the study of climate change thus forms a research 'frontier' that also clearly illustrates the complexities and societal relevance of international business in the current epoch
the exploration of the climate change issue clearly raises a number of questions and several insights about mne strategy and fsa-csa configurations that may also be interesting for scholars that work on more 'mainstream' topics in international business. climate change is an exemplary, perhaps even unique, issue to investigate how mnes respond to socially relevant issues of sustainability, because it involves fossil fuel production and consumption. many mnes (particularly in energy-intensive industries) recognize the strategic impact and, accordingly, mention activities that seem to hint at initiatives to develop green fsas or change key fsas. the study of climate change thus forms a research 'frontier' that also clearly illustrates the complexities and societal relevance of international business in the current epoch.
What the long residence time of an anthropogenic CO2 perturbation in the atmosphere, combined with the inertia of the climate system, implies?
implies that past, current, and future emissions commit the planet to long-term, irreversible climate change1,10-16
Why they presented several different scenarios of global temperature and sea-level change over the next 10,000 years?
to address the possibility that human actions may initiate future global climate change on a geological timescale rather than the scale of a few human generations
What these scenarios are referenced to?
referenced to our best scientific understanding of climate and sea-level change over the past 20,000 years
anthropogenic increases in co2, however, have effects that extend well beyond 2100; a considerable fraction of the carbon emitted to date and in the next 100 years will remain in the atmosphere for tens to hundreds of thousands of years4-9. the long residence time of an anthropogenic co2 perturbation in the atmosphere, combined with the inertia of the climate system, implies that past, current, and future emissions commit the planet to long-term, irreversible climate change1,10-16. as a result, many key features of future climate change are relatively certain in the long term, even if the precise timing of their occurrence is uncertain. here, we argue that it is necessary to view near-term climate changes in the context of a long-term perspective that places the scope and severity of the problem in a readily understandable context. to address the possibility that human actions may initiate future global climate change on a geological timescale rather than the scale of a few human generations, we present several different scenarios of global temperature and sea-level change over the next 10,000 years. these scenarios are referenced to our best scientific understanding of climate and sea-level change over the past 20,000 years. this long-term view shows that the next few decades offer a brief window of opportunity to minimize large-scale and
Is it feasable that some people have established farms/residence in areas that cannot support their means/activities?
individual farms in california we find a major effect of water availability on farmland values
Is the water shed/reservoir and distribution planning of California broken or insufficient for the population?
changes in water availability due to climate change hence have the potential to severely impact the value of farmland
How difficult would it be to relocate impacted land owners to designated productive land, such as the early homestead years of California?  Tthis would abandon the barren land until a climate cycle or distribution plan occurs.
the most important caveat to the analysis of this paper is that results on the impact of changes in surface water availability must be regarded as preliminary
this paper studies how surface water availability, soil characteristics, and climatic variables capitalize into farmland values, and how these values would be affected by changes in the climatic variables. using a micro-level data set of individual farms in california we find a major effect of water availability on farmland values, controlling for other influences. our estimate of the value of surface water is highly statistically significant and robust under a wide set of modeling assumptions. permutations over all possible combinations of control variables yield coefficient estimates that are confined to a fairly narrow range, suggesting that our results a not driven by a particular modeling assumption. predicted 21 changes in water availability due to climate change hence have the potential to severely impact the value of farmland. the other climate variable, degree days, is also statistically significant, even under the random-effects model, and the estimates on the linear and quadratic terms imply an optimal number of degree days that is consistent with agronomic findings. perhaps the most important caveat to the analysis of this paper is that results on the impact of changes in surface water availability must be regarded as preliminary because the data here are complex, and we are continuing to develop finer and more accurate measures, including some measure of the seniority of water rights. in addition, since the analysis relies on cross-sectional data it does not pick up any potential changes not reflected in the data, most notably changes in prices, technology, co2 fertilization, or the potential reduced water-requirements through co2 fertilization. 22
how many of the power plants are there?
there are more than 150 high-elevation power plants, at elevations above 1,000 feet (300 m
what is EBHOM?
energy-based hydropower optimization model 
high-elevation hydropower plants for which the data were ?
based on the historical generation data of 137 high-elevation hydropower plants for which the data were complete for 14 years
california's hydropower system is composed of high and low elevation power plants. there are more than 150 high-elevation power plants, at elevations above 1,000 feet (300 m). most have modest reservoir storage capacities, but supply roughly 74% of california's in-state hydropower. the expected shift of runoff peak from spring to winter due to climate warming, resulting in snowpack reduction and increased snowmelt, might have important effects on power generation and revenues in california. the large storage capacities at low-elevation power plants provide flexibility to operations of these units under climate warming. however, with climate warming, the adaptability of the high-elevation hydropower system is in question as this system was designed to take advantage of snowpack, a natural reservoir. with so many high-elevation hydropower plants in california, estimation of climate warming effects by conventional simulation or optimization methods would be tedious and expensive. an energy-based hydropower optimization model (ebhom) was developed to facilitate practical climate change and other low-resolution system-wide hydropower studies, based on the historical generation data of 137 high-elevation hydropower plants for which the data were complete for 14 years. employing recent historical hourly energy prices, the model was used to explore energy generation in california for three climate warming scenarios (dry warming, wet warming, and warming-only) over 14 years, representing a range of hydrologic conditions. the system is sensitive to the quantity and timing of inflows. while dry warming and warming-only climate changes reduce average hydropower revenues, wet warming could increase revenue. re-operation of available storage and generation capacities help compensate for snowpack losses to some extent. storage capacity expansion and
Many fish species are vulnerable or affected by what?
many fish species are either vulnerable to, or affected by, multiple stressors such as water diversion, habitat degradation or harvest
How many stressor categories were evaluated in a stressor narrative form for each species?
13
The combined ratings fish species' current vulnerability to multiple stressors other than climate change were scored as?
1) highly vulnerable, (2) vulnerable, or (3) having low or no vulnerability
many fish species are either vulnerable to, or affected by, multiple stressors such as water diversion, habitat degradation or harvest. to rate the simultaneous effects of multiple stressors on each species, 13 stressor categories were evaluated in a stressor narrative form for each species (data sheet s3). rationales for the stressor categories are provided in moyle et al. for each species, stressors were rated high, intermediate or low according to their likely negative impact on the species. the combined ratings fish species' current vulnerability to multiple stressors other than climate change were scored as: (1) highly vulnerable, (2) vulnerable, or (3) having low or no vulnerability.
what is temporary migration?
the relevance temporary migration and remittances to cope with unreliable income from agriculture has often been highlighted in the environment-migration literature but not always sufficiently considered in adaptation and mitigation policies
who established internal and international migration?
internal and international migration patterns are well established in mexico and central america
what is complex pattern of human mobility?
it is difficult to project what effects drying trends associated with climate change may have. it is clear, however, that environmental factors like desertification and extreme weather already contribute to the regions' complex pattern of human mobility. the opportunity for some people to migrate seasonally, send remittances, and return home is an example of migration as an adaptation strategy to deteriorating environmental conditions
the relevance temporary migration and remittances to cope with unreliable income from agriculture has often been highlighted in the environment-migration literature but not always sufficiently considered in adaptation and mitigation policies. internal and international migration patterns are well established in mexico and central america, 45 and it is difficult to project what effects drying trends associated with climate change may have. it is clear, however, that environmental factors like desertification and extreme weather already contribute to the regions' complex pattern of human mobility. the opportunity for some people to migrate seasonally, send remittances, and return home is an example of migration as an adaptation strategy to deteriorating environmental conditions.
Most of these studies are conducted on what areas?
however, it is clear that most studies have focused on coastal cities and that there are very few studies of inland cities
What is the most common feature in these studies
13 the majority of studies are single-issue, with sea level rise the most common focus
What are the findings having to do with heat extremes
metrics used in this context (e.g. area potentially at risk of flooding). the second most common focus relates to the impacts of heat extremes, and - as with sea-level rise risks primarily extends findings of heat stress arising from current climate variability to consider the potential impacts of future climate change. this rather restricted focus suggests that current literature should only be seen as indicative of the priorities of climate change faced by cities globally
the geographical locations of these city studies are plotted on the map in xfigure 1x, below. it shows a wide coverage of locations across world regions. however, it is clear that most studies have focused on coastal cities and that there are very few studies of inland cities. there are also a number of areas that are less well covered, or omitted, that may be vulnerable to specific risks. these include some areas of the southern coast of the us and cities in the caribbean, and in japan/south east asia where cities may be vulnerable to hurricane to tropical cyclone risk, as well as cities subject to water scarcity in southern europe. 13 the majority of studies are single-issue, with sea level rise the most common focus, reflecting the fact that many major cities, and, indeed, over 50% of the world's population, are located in low lying areas and so potentially vulnerable to sea level rise (nicholls 2004). this focus arises from a combination of perceived current vulnerability to climate variability from coastal flooding, the greater certainty which has been attached to the probability of sea level rise under future climate change scenarios compared to trends in many other climate variables or impacts, and the relatively easily understood impact metrics used in this context (e.g. area potentially at risk of flooding). the second most common focus relates to the impacts of heat extremes, and - as with sea-level rise risks primarily extends findings of heat stress arising from current climate variability to consider the potential impacts of future climate change. this rather restricted focus suggests that current literature should only be seen as indicative of the priorities of climate change faced by cities globally.
What was the purpose of the first study?
the purpose of the first study was to develop a self-report questionnaire, the caring climate scale (ccs), to assess the extent to which participants perceived a physical activity setting to be interpersonally inviting, safe, supportive, and able to provide an experience of being valued and respected
How can the relationships between a perceived caring climate to perceptions of a task-involving and egoinvolving motivational climate be described?
the relationships between a perceived caring climate to perceptions of a task-involving and egoinvolving motivational climate were significant, not particularly robust, and in the hypothesized directions
What were the two primary purposes of Study Two?
based on the findings from study one, study two had two primary purposes. the first purpose was to confirm the factor structure that was reported in the first study. it was hypothesized that adequate fit indices would result from the confirmatory factor analysis. the second purpose was to examine the convergent validity of the ccs in regard to two motivational variables, the campers' future anticipated involvement in the program and their reported value of participation in the program
the purpose of the first study was to develop a self-report questionnaire, the caring climate scale (ccs), to assess the extent to which participants perceived a physical activity setting to be interpersonally inviting, safe, supportive, and able to provide an experience of being valued and respected. the ccs was designed based on the writings of noddings (1984, 1992, 1995), cohen (2001), and hellison (1995). the initial items were validated by experts from multiple fields of study suggesting the items developed captured the notion of caring defined in the current study. this face validity was further supported by the exploratory factor analysis resulting in one single factor solution. the relatively robust internal reliability of the resulting single factor suggests that the participants responded to these items in a highly consistent manner lending support to the psychometric strength of the measure. table 2. descriptive statistics and convergent validity of observed variables in addition to factorial validity, support was revealed for the convergent and discriminant validity of the ccs. the relationships between a perceived caring climate to perceptions of a task-involving and egoinvolving motivational climate were significant, not particularly robust, and in the hypothesized directions. thus, the ccs was related to perceptions of the motivational climate but was also distinct suggesting the ccs appears to measure a unique characteristic of the psychological climate. in summary, the findings from study one supported preliminary psychometric properties for the ccs. study 1 also contributes to the literature in sport and educational psychology by presenting a measure of the caring climate that is appropriate for use in physical activity settings. the ccs provides an alternative to the current measures that assess the caring environment in classroom and schoolwide contexts (bulach et al., 1998; battistich et al., 1997). based on the findings from study one, study two had two primary purposes. the first purpose was to confirm the factor structure that was reported in the first study. it was hypothesized that adequate fit indices would result from the confirmatory factor analysis. the second purpose was to examine the convergent validity of the ccs in regard to two motivational variables, the campers' future anticipated involvement in the program and their reported value of participation in the program.
How can you assess soil faunal biodiversity?
we assessed soil faunal biodiversity by collecting and homogenizing three soil cores within each plot
What was used to extract soil fauna?
soil fauna were extracted using a modified berlese-tullgren apparatus62
What kind of environments do nematodes and enchytraeids prefer?
soil samples for nematodes and enchytraeids, who prefer wet environments, were wrapped in nylon cloth
we assessed soil faunal biodiversity by collecting and homogenizing three soil cores within each plot (3.5 cm in diameter, 0-15 cm in depth). cores were returned to the lab and soil fauna were extracted using a modified berlese-tullgren apparatus62. to be more specific, soil samples for microarthopods who prefer dry environments were extracted through tullgren funnels for 48 h (dry funnel method). soil samples for nematodes and enchytraeids, who prefer wet environments, were wrapped in nylon cloth and extracted through berlese funnels for 48 h (wet funnel method). they were counted, identified at order level, and preserved in 75% ethyl alcohol. plant biomass measurement and identification
What coastline is the seashore apart of?
the seashore area is part of the coastline of alimos
What activities can be done?
at approximately 200x100 m2 it includes areas for promenading, swimming and relaxation, along with a big playground
what happens near the northern boundary?
at the northern boundaries, the area experiences heavy vehicular traffic, from the main trafficcarrying avenue along the coast of athens and the new light-railway service
the seashore area is part of the coastline of alimos, an important area for greater athens. at approximately 200x100 m2 it includes areas for promenading, swimming and relaxation, along with a big playground (fig. 2) and two coffee-shops. the latter are not included in the analysis, due to their fixed boundaries and borders, which separate them from the main open area. due to its location and nature, the area also attracts visitors from neighboring municipalities and central athens, who wish to visit the sea-side not only for swimming, but also for promenades. at the northern boundaries, the area experiences heavy vehicular traffic, from the main trafficcarrying avenue along the coast of athens and the new light-railway service. the playground has a lot of vegetation, both in terms of grass and mature trees. a long corridor directs people to the seafront, and another long corridor running parallel to the coastline. both of these corridors are characterized by large heat capacity materials, i.e. stone, and absence of shading. furthermore, as both corridors are unprotected and located in an environment very similar to the open field, they are exposed to the winds from almost any direction.
State about the article?
this article has drawn lessons from the recent historical past, and from the last period during which the global climate underwent a systematic reorganisation, when ad hoc reactive and autonomous adaptation appears to have fundamentally reshaped human societies
What is the key question of today's extent?
a key question today is to what extent the consequences of climate change in the twenty-first century and beyond will resemble those of the distant past, as we enter a period during which the global climate is likely to undergo a system-wide reorganisation for the first time in five millennia, driven by an increase in global mean surface temperature unprecedented in millions of years
As world today is same as it was? why?
the world today is not the same as it was at the end of the holocene climatic optimum some 5000 years ago, when the first civilisations emerged against the backdrop of widespread and severe climate change; we are now faced with a quite different set of opportunities and constraints
this article has drawn lessons from the recent historical past, and from the last period during which the global climate underwent a systematic reorganisation, when ad hoc reactive and autonomous adaptation appears to have fundamentally reshaped human societies. a key question today is to what extent the consequences of climate change in the twenty-first century and beyond will resemble those of the distant past, as we enter a period during which the global climate is likely to undergo a system-wide reorganisation for the first time in five millennia, driven by an increase in global mean surface temperature unprecedented in millions of years. the world today is not the same as it was at the end of the holocene climatic optimum some 5000 years ago, when the first civilisations emerged against the backdrop of widespread and severe climate change; we are now faced with a quite different set of opportunities and constraints. we have some foresight, as well as some hindsight. we have identified a process of global climate change, and although the nature, timing and severity of its associated impacts cannot be predicted with precision, there are clear indications and sound evidence indicating which groups and regions are likely to be most affected. as a result, society can - at least in principle - act in advance and take precautionary measures to protect the most vulnerable. such action must be taken in the face of uncertainty; however, the dominant development paradigm and current development models do not favour action under uncertainty, being based on assumptions of constancy and stability, with adaptation seen as a means of preserving this stability rather than enabling people to live in an increasingly dynamic 754 nick brooks, natasha grist and katrina brown
In the Olympic climate change case study what were the "ecosystem resistance" actions and strategies?
 resistance # utilize prescribed fire and postfire planting to maintain native species and prevent tree encroachment in alpine meadows. # use early detection-rapid response to control exotic species. # place fuel reduction treatments around high-value riparian areas to prevent (temporary) habitat loss and aquatic habitat degradation
In the Olympic climate change case study what were the "ecosystem resilience" actions and strategies?
 resilience # focus on maintaining, reconnecting, and reestablishing ecosystem processes and functions. # reduce existing pressures on species from sources other than climate change. # increase the amount of restoration thinning in young stands to reduce competition and drought stress, increase tree growth and vigor, increase structural complexity, increase species diversity, improve wildlife habitat quality, and shift the strategy in placement of thinning treatments to increase resilience across large landscapes
Is "Use early detection-rapid response to control exotic species" an action/strategy for ecosystem resilience or ecosystem resistance?
 resistance # utilize prescribed fire and postfire planting to maintain native species and prevent tree encroachment in alpine meadows. # use early detection-rapid response to control exotic species
examples from the olympic climate change case study of strategies and actions to promote ecosystem resistance, resilience, and response: * resistance # utilize prescribed fire and postfire planting to maintain native species and prevent tree encroachment in alpine meadows. # use early detection-rapid response to control exotic species. # place fuel reduction treatments around high-value riparian areas to prevent (temporary) habitat loss and aquatic habitat degradation. * resilience # focus on maintaining, reconnecting, and reestablishing ecosystem processes and functions. # reduce existing pressures on species from sources other than climate change. # increase the amount of restoration thinning in young stands to reduce competition and drought stress, increase tree growth and vigor, increase structural complexity, increase species diversity, improve wildlife habitat quality, and shift the strategy in placement of thinning treatments to increase resilience across large landscapes. continued on next page
What was studied in a 9,000-year long simulation with the coupled atmosphere-sea ice-ocean-vegetation model ECBiltCLIO-VECODE?
the response of the climate at high northern latitudes to slowly changing external forcings was studied in a 9,000-year long simulation with the coupled atmosphere-sea ice-ocean-vegetation model ecbiltclio-vecode
the response of the climate at high northern latitudes to slowly changing external forcings was studied in a 9,000-year long simulation with the coupled atmosphere-sea ice-ocean-vegetation model ecbiltclio-vecode. only long-term changes in insolation and atmospheric co2and ch4 content were prescribed. the experiment reveals an early optimum (9-8 kyr bp) in most regions, followed by a 1-3  c decrease in mean annual temperatures, a reduction in summer precipitation and an expansion of sea-ice cover. these results are in general agreement with proxy data. over the continents, the timing of the largest temperature response in summer coincides with the maximum insolation difference, while over the oceans, the maximum response is delayed by a few months due to the thermal inertia of the oceans, placing the strongest cooling in the winter half year. sea ice is involved in two positive feedbacks (ice-albedo and sea-ice insulation) that lead regionally to an amplification of the thermal response in our model (7  c cooling in canadian arctic). in some areas, the tundra-taiga feedback results in intensified cooling during summer, most notably in northern north america. the simulated sea-ice expansion leads in the nordic seas to less deep convection and local weakening of the overturning circulation, producing a maximum winter temperature reduction of 7  c. the enhanced interaction between sea ice and deep convection is accompanied by increasing interannual variability, including two marked decadal-scale cooling events. deep convection intensifies in the labrador sea, keeping the overall strength of the thermohaline circulation stable throughout the experiment.
Population buffering requires what?
population buffering requires intra-varietal genetic variation for adaptive traits
Hausmann et al. (2007) studied what?
haussmann et al. (2007) studied intra-varietal heterogeneity of flowering time in six pearl millet landraces from niger
Genetic differences between the earliest and the latest fullsib family derived from what?
genetic differences between the earliest and the latest fullsib family derived from the same landrace were 16 days at minimum (bondabia landrace) and 39 days at maximum (bazagome landrace
developing heterogeneous cultivar types population buffering requires intra-varietal genetic variation for adaptive traits. haussmann et al. (2007) studied intra-varietal heterogeneity of flowering time in six pearl millet landraces from niger. genetic differences between the earliest and the latest fullsib family derived from the same landrace were 16 days at minimum (bondabia landrace) and 39 days at maximum (bazagome landrace). the enormous intra-varietal 11 11 heterogeneity in these sahelian pearl millet landraces for flowering time likely reflects adaptive benefits of this intra-population diversity, whereby only a portion of plants is at their most sensitive stage at any point in time (haussmann et al. 2007). this diversity arose through natural and farmer selection over many generations, and is likely an important mechanism for adaptation to high inter-annual climate variability in the sahel. sahelian pearl millet breeders are thus faced with the question of how much intra-varietal heterogeneity is desirable, or necessary, to obtain improved and stable varieties that consistently out-yield local cultivars under extremely variable growing conditions. this may be in conflict with the common understanding that "improved" cultivars should be distinct, uniform and stable. genetically heterogeneous cultivar types that can profit from population buffering genetically heterogeneous cultivar types that can profit from population buffering include varietal mixtures, multi-line varieties (autogamous species, but components should be specifically selected for complementary traits), open-pollinated population and synthetic varieties, as well as 3-way, 4-way and top cross hybrids. additionally, use of a bulking method of generation advance during inbreeding of predominantly self-pollinated species can be used to maintain uniformity for key agronomic traits such as plant height or grain color, but retain genetic diversity at many other loci. the resulting diversity may or may not be visible, but could contribute to population buffering if alternative physiological pathways are retained. breeders seeking to exploit population buffering for flowering would need to breeders seeking to exploit population buffering for flowering would need to maintain varietal identity for other traits such as panicle and leaf characteristics. line and single-cross hybrid cultivars are genetically uniform and thus would not express population buffering. such highly uniform variety types should be avoided by breeders aiming to improve adaptation to extreme climate variability (where individual buffering mechanisms may be insufficient), unless farmers can use multiple varieties differing for key adaptation traits, like flowering time. the use of multiple varieties by farmers, and 12 12 the habit to change varieties cultivated in response to specific weather patterns is a common feature of sorghum cultivation in the sudanian zone of west-africa (siart et al. 2008). in the sahelian areas, farmers often grow mixtures of very diverse sorghum types, even including different races.
What is required  to  keep health effects of climate change to a minimum?
 if we are about to take eff ective action to keep health eff ects of climate change to a minimum, we need to understand the consequences of climate change on health and the possibilities for change or adaptation
What are some of the possibilities for change or adaptation, consequential of understanding the climate change?
for example, of health threats through changing patterns of disease due to insect-borne infections, various responses are possible--such as vector control, promotion of mosquito nets, new vaccines, or rapid and eff ective diagnosis and treatment
What measures can be taken to support the needy and vulnerable people impacted by the climate change ?
by contrast, in the case of malnutrition due to food shortages, public health and medical approaches can provide, at best, only temporary relief, and a sustainable solution can only be found in measures that match food supply to need and ensure economic entitlements in the most vulnerable groups.27
climate change will lead to adverse health eff ects in many ways. if we are about to take eff ective action to keep health eff ects of climate change to a minimum, we need to understand the consequences of climate change on health and the possibilities for change or adaptation. in the case, for example, of health threats through changing patterns of disease due to insect-borne infections, various responses are possible--such as vector control, promotion of mosquito nets, new vaccines, or rapid and eff ective diagnosis and treatment. by contrast, in the case of malnutrition due to food shortages, public health and medical approaches can provide, at best, only temporary relief, and a sustainable solution can only be found in measures that match food supply to need and ensure economic entitlements in the most vulnerable groups.27
Which data does clearly merit some consideration?
the large variation in coverage across the different newspapers
Which newspapers can be named "conservative papers"?
the times and the daily telegraph
What is their content in 2000/2001 and 2005/06?
their coverage between 2000/01 and 2005/06 consists of optimism and rationalism
the large variation in coverage across the different newspapers evident in this research (graphs 4.4, 4.5 and 4.6) clearly merits some consideration, and it is tempting to assign these differences to something akin to ideology. the times and the daily telegraph are 'conservative' papers, identifying with neo-liberal 45 capitalism, the free market, a promethean view of man's relationship with nature, and an aversion to political control (carvalho, 2007). hence their coverage between 2000/01 and 2005/06 consists of optimism and rationalism (graph 4.6), discourses that deny the need to do anything about climate change and shy away from the idea of potentially severe problems for the developing world. but what is it that shakes them out of this stance in 2006/07? surely the complete change in coverage takes them outside their ideological bounds?
Which body called for an Independent Chief Engineer (it could be a person in any profession with the right knowledge) ' to ensure that a co-ordinated, long term, sustainable approach is followed and that actions are not wholly driven by political agendas '?
the institution of civil engineers (ice) called for an independent chief engineer (it could be a person in any profession with the right knowledge) ' to ensure that a co-ordinated, long term, sustainable approach is followed and that actions are not wholly driven by political agendas 
What is the major problem with the development of solutions to the problem of international climate refugees?
a major problem with the development of solutions to the problem of international climate refugees is that no single international agency, not even the unhcr, exists to promote the rights and interests of environmental refugees
Is there any single agency has the remit to promote environmental sustainability at the broad scale in the UK?
in the uk no single agency has the remit to promote environmental sustainability at the broad scale
who guards the guardians? a major problem with the development of solutions to the problem of international climate refugees is that no single international agency, not even the unhcr, exists to promote the rights and interests of environmental refugees. 3 in the uk no single agency has the remit to promote environmental sustainability at the broad scale. one department deals with flooding, another with energy, waste and water supply. as early as 2003 the institution of civil engineers (ice) called for an independent chief engineer (it could be a person in any profession with the right knowledge) ' to ensure that a co-ordinated, long term, sustainable approach is followed and that actions are not wholly driven by political agendas ' 5 the catastrophic floods of 2007 in the uk demonstrated that a lack of joined management and response exacerbated the damage caused by the floods and the suffering of many who were affected. what has not yet been ostensibly recognized by the british government, despite increasingly sophisticated scenario-based studies of future impacts, 11 is that the vulnerability of many people in the uk to adverse impacts of the changing climate is increasing more rapidly than anyone thought. what will happen to the ski resort communities of scotland as the snow disappears? how will the agricultural and fishing industries be affected? will enough water be available to the populations of the southeast, at an affordable cost, as the summers get warmer and drier? can the thames barrier hold back the tidal surges until the new barrier is built? will the thames gateway development increase vulnerability to flooding of the coastline communities of the whole of southeast england? will climate refugees from the lower latitudes bring north with them smouldering resentments, fuelled by hardship and global inequality, and will migrations carry with them the potential for spreading political conflict? to quote from mark mawhinney, in the conclusions of his book on sustainable development: 12
What must occur before the establishment of disease vectors taking place?
proactive monitoring activities and development of feasible adaptation strategies are required before the establishment of disease vectors may take place
Climate change poses what risk(s) to Central European regions?
we identify those central european regions that are especially exposed to the emerging threat of disease vectors in the light climate change
Cost and time efficiency can be increased by the identification of what?
due to the identification of spatial hot-spots for such activities, costand time-efficient surveillance strategies can be developed. this enables target-orientated counteractions directed against the suggested spread of disease vectors in time
here, we provide a powerful methodological approach to extend conventional bioclimatic envelope modelling of disease vectors by species specific dispersal ability. our findings promise more realistic projections concerning the vector species future distributions. we identify those central european regions that are especially exposed to the emerging threat of disease vectors in the light climate change. for the modelling of hitherto neglected vector-connected risks, expertise from various scientific disciplines has been taken into account. proactive monitoring activities and development of feasible adaptation strategies are required before the establishment of disease vectors may take place. hence, those analyses help to focus control programmes on specific areas at risk on a regional scale. due to the identification of spatial hot-spots for such activities, costand time-efficient surveillance strategies can be developed. this enables target-orientated counteractions directed against the suggested spread of disease vectors in time. consequently, the risk of disease transmission in formerly nonendemic areas can be reduced. once disease vectors such as sandflies are established, vector control and disease prevention have proven to be limited.
What does figure 9 show?
the flow is like that occurring in a ball of dough being compressed when the baker pushes down on it from above
What does the thick sea ice of the Snowball state deform under?
deforms under the compressional stress of its own weight
Is the basal stress small or large?
the basal stress is very small
the thick sea ice of the snowball state deforms under the compressional stress of its own weight, leading to a flow that is more like a global version of the ross ice shelf than it is like the flow of modern, thin sea ice. for floating ice, the basal stress is very small, so there is essentially no vertical shear in the ice flow. the flow is like that occurring in a ball of dough being compressed when the baker pushes down on it from above (see figure 9 ), except that one has to imagine that the top and bottom are well greased and free to slide. unlike frozen-bed land ice sheets, sea-glacier flow is not driven by
Why is the use of a SST gradient more  justifiable?
the use of a sst gradient is more physically justifiable as it is directly related to the position of mean atmospheric convection which drives the teleconnection from the enso region to south america
How is Amazon rainfall calculated?
amazon rainfall is calculated as djf (wet season) means over the region marked in fig. 4 (70w-50w, 15s- 0n
When comparing panels (a) and (b) of Fig. 5 what does the model show?
comparing panels (a) and (b) of fig. 5 note that the observations and model have similar interannual variability in both amazonian rainfall and nino3 index
nino3 index. the use of a sst gradient is more physically justifiable as it is directly related to the position of mean atmospheric convection which drives the teleconnection from the enso region to south america. amazon rainfall is calculated as djf (wet season) means over the region marked in fig. 4 (70w-50w, 15s- 0n). comparing panels (a) and (b) of fig. 5 note that the observations and model have similar interannual variability in both amazonian rainfall and nino3 index. the model correctly reproduces the negative correlation between the enso sst difference and amazonian rainfall on interannual time scales, matching the tendency for rainfall to be reduced during el ni no events. indeed, the model seems to have a slightly higher correlation between the two variables although the observed estimate may be artificially low because of possible errors in the observations. the key feature of fig. 5b is that this correlation is maintained for longer timescale trends so that as the pattern of
Expand ONF
olympic national forest
What does ONF do to control stand density of conifer?
routinely thins young conifer stands
How is thinning increases the vigor of trees in the stand?
by reducing competition
olympic national forest (onf) routinely thins young conifer stands to control stand density, improve the growth of residual trees, and accelerate late-successional structural characteristics. thinning increases the vigor of trees in the stand by reducing competition, thereby increasing resilience to low soil moisture, insects, and fungal pathogens. all these benefits also increase the resilience of coniferous forest to a warmer climate by reduc ing susceptibility to other stressors. therefore, trees are more likely to tolerate chronic stress such as low soil moisture and periodic stress caused by insects and fire, both of which will be more common in a warmer climate. although insects and fire are not as prevalent on onf as in the drier eastern cascade range, the northeastern portion of the olympic peninsula is relatively dry and could experi ence higher potential for insects and fire in the future. olympic national park policy does not allow forest harvest, although they occasionally conduct prescribed fires to reduce stand density and allow fire to play its natural role in the northeastern portion of the park. onf explicitly includes climate change as a factor in decisionmaking about forest management projects. residual stand density is a component of thinning prescriptions, and lower stand densities may be necessary in a warmer climate to achieve the same level of reduced intertree competition as was achieved in the past. this aspect of managing for resilience is one of several objectives (e.g., wildlife habitat quality) that need to be considered when planning for forest thinning.
What is extremely important?The urban heat island
despite being extremely important, the urban heat island is a localised phenomenon
despite being extremely important, the urban heat island is a localised phenomenon and does not significantly contribute to the observed large-scale trends of climate change solomon et al., 2007 ). the inverse statement is however not true: global climate change will add an additional thermal burden to urban areas, accentuating urban heat island impacts voogt, 2002 ). according to the most recent ipcc report solomon et al., 2007 ), warming of the climate system is unequivocal. it can be observed by the increase in global average air and ocean temperatures, the widespread melting of snow and ice and the rise of the global average sea level. they state that the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century can most likely be attributed to the increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. as global greenhouse gas emissions are expected to continue to grow, a warming of about 0.2 1 c per decade is projected for the next two decades, after which temperature projections increasingly depend on specific emission scenarios solomon et al., 2007 ). the report also discusses the potential impacts of the continuing temperature rise. they include amongst others (i) increases in frequency of hot extremes, heat waves and heavy precipitation, (ii) increases in precipitation in high latitudes and precipitation decreases in most subtropical land regions, and (iii) contraction of snow cover area and corresponding sea level rise. asian and african megadeltas, as well as the african content, are expected to suffer the most from these consequences. nevertheless, also within other areas, even those with high incomes, some people (such as the poor, young children and the elderly) can be particularly at risk.
How were the sample estimates calculated?
on the basis of answers provided by the companies interviewed in each sector
Why does the data vary every six months?
due to the difference in the reported number of employees
Where were these sample businesses pulled from?
from the chamber of commerce of sabadell directory
for the present study, we used a sample of businesses from the chamber of commerce of sabadell directory. we used a sample stratified into the eight sectors as shown above. the sample comprised 371 firms and the data referred to the second half of the year 2005. table 1 shows the number of employees in the general population and in the sample, stratified by sectors of business activity. the data for the population come from the directory of the chamber of commerce of sabadell, while the sample estimates have been calculated on the basis of answers provided by the companies interviewed in each sector. in order to obtain the total number of employees for the firms in the sample, per sector, the answers obtained from the businesses surveyed in each sector are aggregated. these data vary every six months due to the difference in the reported number of employees.
Has research been done on public opinions of curbing climate change?
although a number of cv studies investigated individual preferences for climate change mitigation, no studies examine public preferences under the condition of multiple sources of uncertainty
What sets this research study apart from other surveys done on climate change?
further, this is the first cv study in the climate change arena that involves a public survey to estimate the value that households attach to a proposed national emissions trading scheme
Is there a problem with previous climate change surveys that this study is in address of?
existing studies were undertaken by creating a hypothetical policy scenario and this may result in hypothetical bias
although a number of cv studies investigated individual preferences for climate change mitigation, no studies examine public preferences under the condition of multiple sources of uncertainty. further, this is the first cv study in the climate change arena that involves a public survey to estimate the value that households attach to a proposed national emissions trading scheme. existing studies were undertaken by creating a hypothetical policy scenario and this may result in hypothetical bias. a survey that involves an actual public policy enhances the 4 4 consequntiality property of the survey and thus provides respondents incentives to reveal their preferences truthfully (carson and grove 2007).
What are the four groups of problems?
metrics of model validation, model dependence, experimental design of multi-model experiments (or lack of) and model tuning
How is the predictive skill of a model is usually measured?
by comparing the predicted outcome with the observed one
there are a number of issues that need to be considered when constructing and interpreting multi-model climate projections, whether in the form of probability distributions of climate change or simple averages and measures of variability across models. most of these difficulties, discussed in the following sections, are recognized by the climate modelling community, but are still poorly understood and quantified. therefore, references and suggestions on how to tackle, let alone resolve, these issues are inevitably sparse. we choose to group the problems into four categories, namely, metrics of model validation, model dependence, experimental design of multi-model experiments (or lack of) and model tuning, although the different issues are partly related. a metrics, skill and the lack of verification the predictive skill of a model is usually measured by comparing the predicted outcome with the observed one. note that any forecast produced in the form of a confidence interval, or as a probability distribution, cannot be verified or disproved by a single observation or realization since there is always a non-zero probability for a single realization to be within or outside the forecast range just by chance. skill andreliability are assessed byrepeatedlycomparingmanyindependentrealizations of the true system with the model predictions through some metric that quantifies agreement between model forecasts and observations (e.g. rank histograms). for projections offuture climate change over decades and longer, there is no verification period, and in a strict sense there will never be any, even if we wait for a century. the reason is that the emission scenario assumed as a boundary condition is very likely not followed in detail, so the observations from the single climate realizations will never be fully compatible with the boundary conditions and scenario assumptions made by the models. and even if the scenario were to be followed, waiting decades for a single verification dataset is clearly not an effective verification strategy. this mightsoundobvious,but it is importanttonote thatclimate projections, decades or longer in the future by definition, cannot be validated directly through observed changes. our confidence in climate models must therefore come from other sources. the judgement of whether a climate model is skilful or not does not come from its prediction of the future, but from its ability to replicate the mean climatic conditions, climate variability and transient changes for which we have observations, and from its ability to simulate well-understood climate processes. for example, climate models are evaluated on how well they simulate the present-day mean climate (e.g. atmospheric temperature, precipitation, pressure, vertical profiles, ocean temperature and salinity, ocean circulation, sea ice 2065 review. multi-model ensembles for climate projections
What are signifiers that circulate with frequency in public discourse?
disappearing islands and climate refugees are signifiers that circulate with frequency in public discourse
What are being described as 'litmus tests' for global climate change by cosmopolitan environmental activists?
low-lying islands are being described as 'litmus tests' for global climate change by cosmopolitan environmental activists
What is the purpose of this paper?
the purpose of this paper is to explore how the legacy of the island laboratory enables the exercise and justification of cosmopolitan activism towards climate change that speaks in part through space
disappearing islands and climate refugees are signifiers that circulate with frequency in public discourse, yet the role that these representations play in the cultural politics of climate change has not been extensively examined. in particular, low-lying islands are being described as 'litmus tests' for global climate change by cosmopolitan environmental activists and in the media, a discourse which thus far has operated largely under the radar of critical analysis. the purpose of this paper is to explore how the legacy of the island laboratory enables the exercise and justification of cosmopolitan activism towards climate change that speaks in part through space. what follows is an exploration of the disappearing island in terms of cosmopolitan imaginative geographies of climate change. drawing on narratives centred on the pacific nation state of tuvalu, i argue that islands imagined as laboratories appropriate the space of an already marginalised population; these are imaginings by cosmopolitans who demand, for various and at times conflicting reasons, that disappearing islands provide tangible manifestations of the statistical ions that dominate climate science. first, i provide an outline of the discursive field centred on tuvalu and climate change, much of which is structured by attempts to answer the question 'are the seas really rising there?' then, i use hau'ofa's critique of the litany of smallness that characterises western development discourse of the pacific region to contextualise tuvalu's climate change imaginative geographies, and detail these as island spaces outside and yet constitutive of, continental/mainland modernity. i then examine how the idea of the island laboratory has been enrolled in attempts to produce the truth about rising sea levels in tuvalu, which has become a space in which cosmopolitans attempt to locate and contain their climate change hopes and anxieties. this examination is followed by questioning a significant turn towards a problematic moral geography in some prominent strands of environmentalist discourse. expressions of 'wishful sinking' attempt to posit tuvalu's islands as expendable: only after they disappear will the islands become an
What measures could reduce climate change hazard vulnerability?
reductions in poverty, including improvements in housing and living conditions, and in provision for infrastructure and services, would reduce climate change hazard vulnerability. moreover, an articulation of the brown and the green agenda perspectives in dealing with human settlements could reduce vulnerabilities and mitigate climate change
reductions in poverty, including improvements in housing and living conditions, and in provision for infrastructure and services, would reduce climate change hazard vulnerability. moreover, an articulation of the brown and the green agenda perspectives in dealing with human settlements could reduce vulnerabilities and mitigate climate change.127 for example, reforestation and aff orestation can reduce risks of fl ooding. indirect eff ects on settlements (eg, health, lack of water, migration, and livelihoods) and how urban dwellers develop mechanisms to cope with these eff ects need to be assessed to understand how these mechanisms could be mainstreamed into urban planning responses to climate change adaptation.128
How is the distribution area of JEV?
the distribution area of jev has consistently enlarged
What happened in northern Vietnam and Thailand?
in northern vietnam and thailand, a shift from genotype ii to genotype i was reported [27,28
What is the most widespread genotype in Asia?
in northern temperate regions (i.e., japan, south korea, and northeast china), genotype i progressively replaced genotype iii and became the main genotype it is now very probably the most widespread genotype in asia, which was otherwise found to be lethal for humans [9,29-33
the distribution area of jev has consistently enlarged. sometimes, the genotypes of jev isolates changed locally. in northern vietnam and thailand, a shift from genotype ii to genotype i was reported [27,28]. in northern temperate regions (i.e., japan, south korea, and northeast china), genotype i progressively replaced genotype iii and became the main genotype it is now very probably the most widespread genotype in asia, which was otherwise found to be lethal for humans [9,29-33]. however, to date, vaccines are only derived from genotype iii strains; whereas protective levels of crossreactive neutralizing antibodies of these vaccines were found against the various circulating genotypes, variations between genotypes call for further studies [34,35]. in particular, since the immune response against genotype i was less pronounced, its duration should be addressed
Why does the Stern Review call for immediate decisive action to stabilize greenhouse gases?
because "the benefits of strong, early action on climate change outweighs the costs
The economic analysis supporting this conclusion consists mostly of how many strands?
two
What is the writer skeptical of?
the review 's formal analysis
the stern review calls for immediate decisive action to stabilize greenhouse gases because "the benefits of strong, early action on climate change outweighs the costs." the economic analysis supporting this conclusion consists mostly of two basic strands. the first strand is a formal aggregative model that relies for its conclusions primarily upon imposing a very low discount rate. concerning this discount-rate aspect, i am skeptical of the review 's formal analysis, but this essay points out that we are actually a lot less sure about what interest rate should be used for discounting climate change than is commonly acknowledged. the review 's second basic strand is a more intuitive argument that it might be very important to avoid possibly large uncertainties that are difficult to quantify. concerning this uncertainty aspect, i argue that it might be recast into sound analytical reasoning that might justify some of the review 's conclusions. the basic issue here is that spending money to slow global warming should perhaps not be conceptualized primarily as being about consumption smoothing as much as being about how much insurance to buy to offset the small change of a ruinous catastrophe that is difficult to compensate by ordinary savings.
What does the episystem comprise of?
the episystem includes the vectors, the hosts, the pathogens, the biological controlling mechanisms and all of the environmental factors that have an effect on disease epidemiology within a defined spatio-temporal region
Do factors like poverty and size of human population influence vector-borne disease cycle independent of climate?
poverty and human population size although likely to be influenced by climate also influence vector-borne disease cycles independent of climate
What are the different aspects of an arthropod vector's life cycle that climate can influence?
climate, i.e. temperature, precipitation, humidity, wind, etc. can influence various aspects of an arthropod vector's life cycle, including survival, arthropod population numbers, vector pathogen interactions, pathogen replication, vector behavior and of course vector distribution
the vector-borne disease episystem encompasses all of the biological and environmental components and aspects of the entire epidemiological vector-borne disease system within specified geographical and/or temporal scales. it has been used previously to define different epidemiological systems for the vector-borne animal pathogen bluetongue virus (btv) (tabachnick, 2003). the episystem includes the vectors, the hosts, the pathogens, the biological controlling mechanisms and all of the environmental factors that have an effect on disease epidemiology within a defined spatio-temporal region. episystems might occur at different levels of scale. for example, one might define the episystem for a specific pathogen at the local level of a village or town, which may be a different episystem with different components and influences than the same pathogen defined at the countrywide, continental wide or the global level. an episystem might be defined temporally if various controlling factors have different influences over time. for example, the west nile virus (wnv) episystem in the northeast usa in 2000 may be different from the current episystem in the same region due to changes in vector populations, avian amplification host populations, human behavior and climate over the past decade. fig.1 is modified from a concept developed by sutherst (sutherst, 2004) to emphasize the complexity of the interactions between some contributing factors, including the direct and indirect influences of many factors on vector-borne disease. the disease cycle, represented by the vector-pathogen-host relationship, has multiple influences that are interconnected and/or dependent on one another. fig. 1 is a useful ion for visualizing vector-borne disease episystems. climate has direct effects on the vector, pathogen and host, and their interactions with one another, yet climate also has direct influence on other environmental factors that in turn may also directly influence vector-borne disease transmission cycles. poverty and human population size although likely to be influenced by climate also influence vector-borne disease cycles independent of climate. although climate in the form of rising temperature has been proposed to influence the surge of increased dengue in the world in recent years, there is also good reason to believe that this surge may be due to the increases in the size and distribution of urban human populations, continuing poverty in many parts of the tropical world and an erosion of public health infrastructure in many regions (gubler, 2002; gubler, 2008). climate, i.e. temperature, precipitation, humidity, wind, etc. can influence various aspects of an arthropod vector's life cycle, including survival, arthropod population numbers, vector pathogen interactions, pathogen replication, vector behavior and of course vector distribution. table1 lists several possible influences of climate on vectors and shows the potential influence on vector-borne disease cycles. understanding of the influence of climate on several current vector-borne disease episystems has provided knowledge about vector-borne disease epidemiology and has allowed greater ability to forecast vector-borne disease outbreaks in current episystems. for example, the influence of rainfall and drought periods on wnv epidemiology in north america has been integrated in surveillance and risk prediction for wnv in california
What was the historical record of climate over the Midwest was combined with?
the historical record of climate over the midwest was combined with gcm projections to place these within the context of regional climate over the last century
Following NAST (2001), what did they assume?
following nast (2001), we assumed that model biases relative to observed climate over the reference period 1961-1990 were primarily systematic
the historical record of climate over the midwest was combined with gcm projections to place these within the context of regional climate over the last century. we recognize the significant uncertainties inherent to application of gcm data at a regional scale; however, when considered in combination with a detailed historical record, this analysis can provide additional insights regarding the possible range of future change in this region. a gridding program3that averages randomly-spaced geographic locations was used to convert the historical temperature and precipitation records into a uniform grid at the same resolution as model output. following nast (2001), we assumed that model biases relative to observed climate over the reference period 1961-1990 were primarily systematic. if due to model limitations, the same biases would be present in simulations of climate over the next century. although this assumption is not entirely valid, taking the difference between model projections of future and current climate should remove the systematic component of this bias and reduce uncertainty to the level of other uncertainties introduced by differing model parameterizations. in addition, the impact of changes in land cover and local aerosol distributions, which are also important drivers of local and regional scale changes in climate, were not included as projections for these drivers were not available at the level of detail required for regional analyses. projected future change was calibrated to the historical record using 1961- 1990 as a reference period. for temperature, the difference between projected future values and model-calculated 1961-1990 seasonal averages were added to the observed seasonal averages for the reference period. future precipitation was calculated as the percentage change relative to the 1961-1990 seasonal average, allowing for changes in the frequency and intensity of weather systems over the region. methodologies used to calculate changes in other climate characteristics, such as heavy precipitation events, are discussed in section 4.
How many experts from NGOs contributed to the CCP1 2014?
over 250 experts
What countries remain with low emissions scores?
spain, croatia, greece and turkey remain with low scores
What countries share the top rank for emissions scoring?
the scandinavian states denmark and norway confidently share the first rank
reflecting efforts towards an efficient and low-carbon society, this map portrays the evaluation and results of the climate policy of the observed countries. over 250 experts from non-governmental organisations contributed to the ccpi 2014 with an evaluation of those policies. while all recent underlying data for the other categories is from 2011 and previous years, the expert evaluations reflect up-to-date developments. the policy data enables countries with an overall poor performance to be rewarded as soon as a shift in politics is observed (e. g. due to a change of government or of the current government's climate policy). this year, the netherlands was able to fulfil these conditions. if the trends prove to be correct, however, these countries are expected to improve even more in the next years, and their ambitions should be reflected in the emissions data. although australia was mentioned as an example of those who profited last year from good policy evaluations, the country did not fare so well in the recent index year. in sum, the data showed a slight improvement in australia's emissions performance, but in the overall ranking it dropped six places due to a drastic decrease in the policy score. another country that could have performed better is germany, which was also unable to maintain its positive evaluations of previous years. once again, denmark, korea and china are some of the winners in the race for the best national policy evaluation. new zealand joined the bottom five this year. whereas italy managed to improve its score, spain, croatia, greece and turkey remain with low scores. in the international policy evaluation a group of six has top scores. the scandinavian states denmark and norway confidently share the first rank, ahead of switzerland, belgium, mexico and sweden. hopefully improvements will be observed in the international efforts of new zealand, canada and turkey next year, which currently lag far behind. very good good moderate poor very poor not included in assessment
What exactly is the first row of the figure 14a?
the first row is the subseasonal monthly jja v250mb v-wind regressed against the three leading reofs, and plotted assuming one standard deviation in the reofs
Apart from the first row, what does remaining rows estimate?
the first row is the subseasonal monthly jja v250mb v-wind regressed against the three leading reofs, and plotted assuming one standard deviation in the reofs
Excluding the first row, can you elaborate in detail the contents of rest of the rows?
the second from the top row is the response to the total forcing. the third row is the response to the heating. the fourth row shows the response to the total (temperature plus vorticity plus divergence) transient forcing. the fifth and sixth rows show the separate responses to the vorticity and temperature transients, respectively
fig. 14a: the first row is the subseasonal monthly jja v250mb v-wind regressed against the three leading reofs, and plotted assuming one standard deviation in the reofs. the remaining rows are the responses to the estimated forcing terms for the first (left panels), second (middle panels) and third (right panels) reofs. the second from the top row is the response to the total forcing. the third row is the response to the heating. the fourth row shows the response to the total (temperature plus vorticity plus divergence) transient forcing. the fifth and sixth rows show the separate responses to the vorticity and temperature transients, respectively. units: m/s.
Would you say the prolonged wet weather conditions has a negative impact on the farmers and crop marketing?
the impact of prolonged wet weather conditions on crop marketing is also quite devastating for the farmers. the water-damaged crops will be of poor quality and, therefore, fetch low prices on the market
What does the prolonged wet weather leads to sometimes?
sometimes the prolonged wet weather leads to deterioration of already poor rural roads and bridges making the roads that traverse the area impassable
What does the deteriorated state of road infrastructures lead to?
some of the road infrastructure remains in state of disrepair for years leading to deepening poverty among particularly the farmers whose household income mainly comes from farming
the impact of prolonged wet weather conditions on crop marketing is also quite devastating for the farmers. the water-damaged crops will be of poor quality and, therefore, fetch low prices on the market. sometimes the prolonged wet weather leads to deterioration of already poor rural roads and bridges making the roads that traverse the area impassable. this affects the timely transportation of both agricultural inputs and outputs to and from the markets further affecting agricultural productivity and household incomes in subsequent years. some of the road infrastructure remains in state of disrepair for years leading to deepening poverty among particularly the farmers whose household income mainly comes from farming. the farmers were, however, quick to point out that prolonged wet conditions that damage crops were uncommon but when they occur, they will be quite intensive and devastating. in recent years, such conditions were experienced in murowa ward during the 2003-2004 and the 20072008 seasons and led to serious household food insecurity among about 80% of the smallholder farmers in the ward.
What is the result of the reduction in carbon-emitting activities?
this is likely to come from strengthened public awareness of climate change and its potential eff ects on health
What is the concern of developing countries?
developing countries are preoccupied with the current high burden of disease due to non-climatic factors and, at the same time, problems related to health-care delivery in the public systems
In what sense does cooperation help to tackle climate change and who are the beneficiaries?
there are institutions to undertake these challenges (eg, in south america and the caribbean), from capable national governments to eff ective regional fi nancial and research organisations. such institutions are likely to gain from cooperation, both from opportunities for sharing adaptation technologies and from presenting a unifi ed front when bargaining for increased development assistance in spite of costly adaptation
nationally, governments face three main challenges. first, reduction of carbon-emitting activities needs to be managed. this is likely to come from strengthened public awareness of climate change and its potential eff ects on health. in the developing world, climate change issues are perceived by many as distant, diff use, and uncertain.148 developing countries are preoccupied with the current high burden of disease due to non-climatic factors and, at the same time, problems related to health-care delivery in the public systems. citizens of the poorest countries should understand the links between these constraints and climate change. second, locally relevant adaptation technologies that do not compromise growth need to be identifi ed. discussion needs to extend to locally relevant adaptation technologies that do not harm health. third, to support both these goals and to underpin national adaptation eff orts, health eff ects of climate change need to be integrated into national plans across sectors and tiers of government. this action will require improved understanding of health and climate change at regional, national, subnational, community, and individual levels, from the primary sector to public fi nance. national plans must fi nancially support key shifts in policy, facilitate access to better technologies, and protect health outcomes. frumkin and colleagues147 have proposed a public health approach to climate change based on the essential public health services, which extends to both clinical and population health services, and emphasises the coordination of government agencies (federal, state, and local), academia, the private sector, and ngos. there are institutions to undertake these challenges (eg, in south america and the caribbean), from capable national governments to eff ective regional fi nancial and research organisations. such institutions are likely to gain from cooperation, both from opportunities for sharing adaptation technologies and from presenting a unifi ed front when bargaining for increased development assistance in spite of costly adaptation. those that do not have such capabilities must be assisted to face each of these challenges. the institutional challenge of adjusting to the adverse public health eff ects of climate change is closely tied to the general challenge of sustainable development, with its emphasis on equity and environment, and on wellbeing instead of relentless economic growth.24 climate change adds new urgency to this challenge, not least because of the clear disjuncture between cause and eff ect; responsibility for climate change is mainly of rich nations and, although the negative public health eff ects of climate change will not be confi ned to poor nations, they will be worse there, both in absolute terms and in terms of relative capacity to cope. whether viewed as an ethical imperative or an example of enlightened self-interest in an interconnected world, a vigorous anticipatory response to the challenge of adjustment is urgently needed. climate change demands political action and social mobilisation. however, individuals, organisations, and governments all have an important role in advocating and implementing change. although a complete response requires a holistic global approach, this should not be a reason to delay changes that are benefi cial to human health and can be implemented immediately. equally, the possibility of partially eff ective local strategies should not be seen as a substitute for a full-scale global response. putting climate change at the centre of government policies enables a number of win-win solutions in achieving implementation of policies across government departments. for example, the uk government energy policy to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2050, to increase the use of renewable energies, and to ensure that every home is adequately and aff ordably heated will increase the achievement of policy objectives in the departments of agriculture, transport, and health. our fi ndings are in agreement with the main messages from the international scientifi c congress on climate change in copenhagen in march, 2009. these messages suggested that, to achieve the societal transformation to meet the climate change challenge, we need to: reduce inertia in social and economic systems; build on a growing public desire for governments to act on climate change; remove implicit and explicit subsidies; reduce the infl uence of vested interests that increase emissions and reduce resilience; enable shifts from ineff ective governance and weak institutions to innovative leadership in government, the private sector, and civil society; and engage society in the transition to norms and practices that foster sustainability.
Describe the indication of colours ?
colours are red for intercept, black and grey for linear and quadratic sam index effects, respectively, green for hl effects, and blue for linear age effects
Write the result of panels i & J ?
panels i and j show sensitivity to breeding success for ages 3 to 7, and ages 8 or above, respectively
Write the result of panel h ?
panel h shows sensitivity to inheritance h h 9 h )), where the dashed line indicates the variance parameter
extended data figure 4 sensitivity of the mean population homozygosity weighted by locus hl to changes in statistical parameters of the vital rates describing the survival and fertility functions in integral projection models. panels a-d show sensitivity to survival of first year females a ), pre-breeders of ages 1 to 7 b ), breeders aged 8 or above c ), andbreeders of ages 3 to 7 d ). panel e shows sensitivity to recruitment a ), and panels f and g show sensitivity to fecundity for ages 3 to 7, and ages 8 or above, respectively. panel h shows sensitivity to inheritance h h 9 h )), where the dashed line indicates the variance parameter. panels i and j show sensitivity to breeding success for ages 3 to 7, and ages 8 or above, respectively. colours are red for intercept, black and grey for linear and quadratic sam index effects, respectively, green for hl effects, and blue for linear age effects.
What information can be found in Fig. 1?
the temporal evolution of the physical characteristics of the deep-water masses in the cretan sea is reported in fig. 1
The variability of all indices of biodiversity among the Eastern Mediterranean sites was always lower than what percentage?
the variability of all of the indices of biodiversity among the eastern mediterranean sites was always lower than 7
the temporal evolution of the physical characteristics of the deep-water masses in the cretan sea is reported in fig. 1. from 1992 to 1994, the deep waters suffered a remarkable drop in temperature, of about 0.4  c, and then they gradually recovered to pre-1992 values from 1994 to 1998. the protein concentrations in the deep-sea sediments were characterized by a significant increase (anova, post-hoc tukey's test p 0.01) from 1989 to 1994, whereas no significant changes were observed after 1994 (anova, n.s.). the analysis of spatial heterogeneity in biodiversity indicated that at both the local and regional scales the differences in nematode species composition were not statistically significant among the sampling sites (anosim, p >0.05). the variability of all of the indices of biodiversity among the eastern mediterranean sites was always lower than 7%, indicating that the nematode diversity at the fixed site used for our decadal study accurately represents regional biodiversity. moreover, all of the biodiversity indices displayed a limited seasonal variability (i.e. september 1994, march, may and september
What do the potential impacts of climate change on population health include?
the potential impacts of climate change on population health include a wide range of diseases and health outcomes, from infectious diseases to malnutrition and disaster-related injuries (confalonieri et al., 2007
What are all the activities included in adaptation?
adaptation, broadly defined, would include all activities that reduce or prevent these 'additional' cases or deaths
In which type of countries are initiatives underway to support adaptation in health sector?
further, initiatives are now underway to support adaptation in the health sector in lowand middle-income countries
the potential impacts of climate change on population health include a wide range of diseases and health outcomes, from infectious diseases to malnutrition and disaster-related injuries (confalonieri et al., 2007). adaptation, broadly defined, would include all activities that reduce or prevent these 'additional' cases or deaths. several reviews of such adaptation strategies, policies and measures have now been published (menne and ebi, 2005; ebi, kovats and menne, 2006). further, initiatives are now underway to support adaptation in the health sector in lowand middle-income countries. this chapter provides an overview of the current literature on adaptation costs for the 'health sector'. the health sector is here limited to conventional public health activities, although it is well recognised that adaptation in other sectors is probably more important for reducing the health impacts of climate change (through disaster mitigation, food and water security, and providing decent infrastructure). at the time of writing (july 2009), there is only one set of comprehensive adaptation costs for health and these are provided in the unfccc report and related journal paper (unfccc, 2007; ebi, 2008).
How are the new projections by Sokolov et al and Webster et al different from the Webster et al projections made in 2003?
these new projections by sokolov et al (2009) and webster et al (2009) are considerably warmer than the earlier webster et al (2003) projections. t
What was the cause of cooling during the second half of the 20th century?
the cooling in the second half of the 20th century due to volcanic eruptions
In addition to climate processes and ecosystem functioning, what else did the sub-models take into account?
the igsm links detailed sub-models of economics, climate processes and ecosystem functioning
probabilistic projections of climate change from present to 2100 using large ensembles of runs of the mit integrated global system model (igsm) assuming no policy and four stabilization targets will be reviewed, and their implications for risk assessment and decision-making discussed. the igsm links detailed sub-models of economics, climate processes and ecosystem functioning. these new projections by sokolov et al (2009) and webster et al (2009) are considerably warmer than the earlier webster et al (2003) projections. the leading causes for the warmer predictions include taking into account the cooling in the second half of the 20th century due to volcanic eruptions and use of an improved method for projecting gdp growth that eliminates many low emission scenarios. by examining by how much and why the odds for dangerous amounts of warming and sea level rise are decreased by lowering the stabilization targets, arguments can be made to justify the expenditures necessary to achieve these targets.
What natural formation is being studied?
the great barrier reef: a vulnerability assessment part i
what are they studying the effects of?
global climate change could potentially have large affects on the
What type of forests could be lost?
a loss of mangrove forests could reduce
climate change and the great barrier reef: a vulnerability assessment part ii: species and species groups with global climate change could potentially have large affects on the coasts and nearshore waters of the gbr lagoon. for example, a loss of mangrove forests could reduce banana prawn landings or result in the liberation of a proportion of the huge pool of carbon stored in stabilised wetland sediments to coastal waters and the atmosphere (table 9.3). table 9.2 outline of some of the major ecosystem services provided by mangroves, salt marshes and other wetlands within the gbr and the processes potentially impacted by climate change
What does this theorem involve?
this theorem (hardin, 1968) usually involves ordinary people doing ordinary things, rather than villainous or greedy people doing especially nasty things
Are all Swiss citizens evil people who want to harm others?
the swiss citizens are not evil people who want to harm others deliberately
Where are the barriers of denial listed?
and especially taking into account the barriers of denial a listed above
for the purposes of this analysis, this theorem (hardin, 1968) usually involves ordinary people doing ordinary things, rather than villainous or greedy people doing especially nasty things (ophuls, 1977 in gardner and stern, 1996, p. 26). the swiss citizens are not evil people who want to harm others deliberately. furthermore, even if all citizens understand that their actions are contributing to climate change, each is powerless to stop the process via unilateral individual action. based on this theoretical perspective, and especially taking into account the barriers of denial a listed above, we hypothesise that denial in the face of political and moral exhortations to change behaviour in the cause of mitigating climate change is reinforced by the following:  an unwillingness to give up customary habits and favoured lifestyles which are closely associated with a sense of self-identity (the comfort a interpretation)  the construction of attitude and behaviour connections that regard any costs to the self as greater than the bene ts to others (the tragedy-of-the-commons a interpretation)  a lack of acceptance that the climate problem is as serious as made out, and that a belief in any case it can be resolved by recourse to technological and regulatory innovation (the managerialx a interpretation)  an underlying lack of faith in the capacity of government to deliver its side of the bargain over climate change mitigation (the governance-distrust a interpretation). these four interpretations a are closely interlinked. the richness of the data set reveals this to a remarkable extent. the separation of these interpretations reported below is largely to clarify nuances of outlook. it is also worth bearing in mind that well-facilitated focus groups using a range of approaches can lead to a healthy reinforcement of views amongst participants, who feel comfortable about gradually manouvering into consistency.
What is presented by the Program/initiative Purpose Canada's National?
a strategy for achieving forest strategy sustainable forest management at the national scale
What does Canadian Standards do?
evaluates companies and government
What does Sustainable forest management provides?
sustainable forest management provides a framework into which climate change adaptation can be effectively incorporated
program/initiative purpose canada's national presents a strategy for achieving forest strategy sustainable forest management at the national scale canadian standards evaluates companies and government association forest agencies with respect to their practice certification system of sustainable forest management forest management commits companies to comply with agreement agreements that allocate volume and forest management responsibilities (e.g., replanting, habitat protection) sustainable forest management provides a framework into which climate change adaptation can be effectively incorporated. potential impacts of both climate change and climate change adaptations could be assessed with respect to the sustainability criteria described above, in much the same way as managers currently evaluate the impacts of management activities such as harvest schedules and building roads. in this way, adaptation options for climate change can be developed to fit within existing forest land-use planning systems, rather than being viewed as a new and separate issue. in some cases, to help preserve forest sustainability, forest managers may assist in tree regeneration. regeneration may involve replanting native tree
What are the opinions of the population regarding the scientific consensus?
these results cast an entirely different light on studies finding that citizens of opposing cultural and political outlooks have different beliefs about "scientific consensus" on climate change
What do people think about your attitudes and those of others?
they do, but only when the question that they are answering measures who they are not surprisingly, people refuse to take the bait when asked whether they and those they are closely aligned with should be viewed as cretins
these results cast an entirely different light on studies finding that citizens of opposing cultural and political outlooks have different beliefs about "scientific consensus" on climate change. they do, but only when the question that they are answering measures who they are not surprisingly, people refuse to take the bait when asked whether they and those they are closely aligned with should be viewed as cretins. that is the question being put to people by the "consensus" messaging "pop quiz," whether it is administered in a typical opinion survey on climate change "beliefs" or in a political communication. but if the question is put in a manner that disentangles identity and knowledge, there is no "consensus gap" between scientists and the public. there is no "misunderstanding" to be
How is the model response to ENSO calculated?
the model response to enso is calculated by producing composite statistics for the warm and cold phases using the nino-3 index, normalized and centered, to provide additional weights for the statistical estimation (see the appendix
What does Figures 9a-d show?
figures 9a-d show the difference in the track density between the warm and cold phases of enso for era-40 and the echam5, (amip integrations averaged over the three members) for the nh and tropical storm tracks
What does the NH storm track for ERA-40 (Fig. 9a) show?
the nh storm track for era-40 (fig. 9a) shows a southerly translation over the united states with the largest reduction around the great lakes and the largest increase in a band following the southernmost united states and northeastward over the north atlantic
to explore the response of the model to the boundary conditions, the impact of enso on the storm tracks is explored, using the observed monthly nino-3 index for the period 1979-2001. the model response to enso is calculated by producing composite statistics for the warm and cold phases using the nino-3 index, normalized and centered, to provide additional weights for the statistical estimation (see the appendix). figures 9a-d show the difference in the track density between the warm and cold phases of enso for era-40 and the echam5, (amip integrations averaged over the three members) for the nh and tropical storm tracks. the nh storm track for era-40 (fig. 9a) shows a southerly translation over the united states with the largest reduction around the great lakes and the largest increase in a band following the southernmost united states and northeastward over the north atlantic. the pacific storm track is enhanced in a band from eastern china eastward over the pacific to the west coast of the united states and canada. the echam5 model results (fig. 9b) are very similar, demonstrating that the response of the model to the
In which two respects is PIP worse than the Prisoner's Dilemma?
the first respect is that its two constituent claims are worse. on the one hand, (pip1) is worse than (pd1) because the first generation is not included. this means not only that one generation is not motivated to accept the collectively rational outcome, but also that the problem becomes iterated. since subsequent generations have no reason to comply if their predecessors do not, noncompliance by the first generation has a domino effect that undermines the collective project. on the other hand, (pip2) is worse than (pd2) because the reason for it is deeper
Why is the PIP more difficult to resolve?
the pip is more difficult to resolve, because the standard solutions to the prisoner's dilemma are unavailable: one cannot appeal to a wider context of mutually-beneficial interaction, nor to the usual notions of reciprocity
Since when have the total carbon dioxide emissions have more than quadrupled?
for total carbon dioxide emissions have more than quadrupled since 1950
now, the pip is worse than the prisoner's dilemma in two main respects. the first respect is that its two constituent claims are worse. on the one hand, (pip1) is worse than (pd1) because the first generation is not included. this means not only that one generation is not motivated to accept the collectively rational outcome, but also that the problem becomes iterated. since subsequent generations have no reason to comply if their predecessors do not, noncompliance by the first generation has a domino effect that undermines the collective project. on the other hand, (pip2) is worse than (pd2) because the reason for it is deeper. both of these claims hold because the parties lack access to mechanisms (such as enforceable sanctions) that would make defection irrational. but whereas in normal prisoner's dilemma-type cases, this obstacle is largely practical, and can be resolved by creating appropriate institutions, in the pip it arises because the parties do not coexist, and so seem unable to influence each other's behaviour through the creation of appropriate coercive institutions. this problem of interaction produces the second respect in which the pip is worse than the prisoner's dilemma. this is that the pip is more difficult to resolve, because the standard solutions to the prisoner's dilemma are unavailable: one cannot appeal to a wider context of mutually-beneficial interaction, nor to the usual notions of reciprocity. the upshot of all this is that in the case of climate change, the intergenerational analysis will be less optimistic about solutions than the tragedy of the commons analysis. for it implies that current populations may not be motivated to establish a fully adequate global regime, since, given the temporal dispersion of effects - and especially backloading and deferral - such a regime is probably not in their interests. this is a large moral problem, especially since in my view the intergenerational problem dominates the tragedy of the commons aspect in climate change. the pip is bad enough considered in isolation. but in the context of climate change it is also subject to morally relevant multiplier effects. first, climate change is not a static phenomenon. in failing to act appropriately, the current generation does not simply pass an existing problem along to future people, rather it adds to it, making the problem worse. for one thing, it increases the costs of coping with climate change: failing to act now increases the magnitude of future climate change and so its effects. for another, it increases mitigation costs: failing to act now makes it more difficult to change because it allows additional investment in fossil fuel based infrastructure in developed and especially less developed countries. hence, inaction raises transition costs, making future change harder than change now. finally, and perhaps most importantly, the current generation does not add to the problem in a linear way. rather, it rapidly accelerates the problem, since global emissions are increasing at a substantial rate. for total carbon dioxide emissions have more than quadrupled since 1950 (figure 1). moreover, the current growth rate is around 2 per cent per year.28 though 2 per cent may not seem like much, the effects of compounding make stephen m. gardiner
Snowball states have what cycle?
hydrological cycle
Hydological cycle fed by what?
sublimation from the snow or ice surface
The hydrological cycle transforms sea ice into what?
water vapor
snowball states have a sluggish but vital hydrological cycle, fed by sublimation from the snow or ice surface. the hydrological cycle transforms sea ice into water vapor, which is transported through the atmosphere and redistributed over the surface as meteoric ice. at the low temperatures of snowball states, the evaporation is limited by the low-saturation water vapor pressure yielded by the clausius-clapeyron relation (pierrehumbert 2002). the latent heat flux carries little energy away from the surface, and the rate at which water fluxes through the system is small. yet the slow redistribution of water has a profound effect on ice ablation and on the surface albedo, which is determined largely by snow cover. the annual mean precipitation minus evaporation p - e pattern for a typical snowball state is shown in figure 7 the basic structure of the snowball hydrological cycle consists of a net ablation zone near the equator and a transport of water toward the poles. this is exactly the opposite of the pattern familiar from the modern climate, or indeed any climate with an unglaciated tropics. the difference arises from the low thermal inertia of the snowball surface, which causes the upward branch of the hadley circulation (the intertropical convergence zone, or itcz) to undergo an extreme seasonal excursion from the northern to the southern subtropics. because the itcz spends more time at the extremes, moisture is carried systematically to the edge of the tropics, where it can be further redistributed by synoptic eddy transports. the process is identical to the process that accounts for the poleward transport of methane on titan (mitchell 2008), except that
What has provided some of the best examples of the impacts of recent climate change on wildlife from around the world?
ornithology has provided some of the best examples of the impacts of recent climate change on wildlife from around the world
What is the best studied area?
the best studied area, primarily because of the existence of long-term datasets, is that of phenological change
What has already been observed?
the potential for phenological miscuing and phenological disjunction to the detriment of the species concerned has already been observed
ornithology has provided some of the best examples of the impacts of recent climate change on wildlife from around the world, but we have only begun to scratch the surface. the best studied area, primarily because of the existence of long-term datasets, is that of phenological change (sparks crick 1999). the consequences of such change are barely explored, but the potential for phenological miscuing and phenological disjunction to the detriment of the species concerned has already been observed. one research area where immediate attention is urgently needed is the intrinsic and extrinsic factors that could potentially inhibit adaptation to climatic change. such factors include:
Local recursive description?
this study has concentrated on the evaluation of tropospheric storm tracks at 850 hpa using the local relative vorticity as a suitable measure. the local surface pressure minimum could equally well have been used, but the local vorticity extrema around the top of the boundary layer are considered a more representative quantity for the transient cyclones and anticyclones
Tropical Storm Description?
in general the echam5 model reproduces the extratropical storm tracks in surprisingly good agreement with the analyzed data from era-40, in particular in the nh
Describe the NH storm track response?
it is also capable of broadly reproducing the nh storm track response to enso, though with a somewhat stronger signal than seen in era-40 associated with a
this study has concentrated on the evaluation of tropospheric storm tracks at 850 hpa using the local relative vorticity as a suitable measure. the local surface pressure minimum could equally well have been used, but the local vorticity extrema around the top of the boundary layer are considered a more representative quantity for the transient cyclones and anticyclones. in fact a similar study has been performed using mslp and qualitatively similar results were obtained. in general the echam5 model reproduces the extratropical storm tracks in surprisingly good agreement with the analyzed data from era-40, in particular in the nh. it is also capable of broadly reproducing the nh storm track response to enso, though with a somewhat stronger signal than seen in era-40 associated with a
What do the red lines indicate?
the red lines mark individual models of cmip5 and red shading the 5th to 95th percentile across the models for each bin marking a certain change
What do the blue lines show?
the blue lines show the individual cesm-ic members and the blue shading the respective range across different members
What does Fig. 10 show?
see supplementary fig. 10 for the corresponding figure with absolute temperature changes
spatial distribution of changes in hot and cold extremes. a - d pdf of the land fraction (66*s-66*n) experiencing a certain 20-year mean change in hot a c and cold b d extremes. 20-year mean changes are shown for the period 2016-2035 a b and 2041-2060 c d with respect to the 20-year mean in 1986-2005. legend in a applies to all panels. the red lines mark individual models of cmip5 and red shading the 5th to 95th percentile across the models for each bin marking a certain change. likewise the blue lines show the individual cesm-ic members and the blue shading the respective range across different members. the changes expected owing to internal variability are shown as grey shading with the solid black line marking the mean. twenty-year mean changes at each grid point are normalized by the interannual standard deviation of the respective annual extreme index values for 1986-2005. see supplementary fig. 10 for the corresponding figure with absolute temperature changes.
Explain PETM winter?
the tropospheric jet stream and the baroclinic wave activity are strongest during the petm winter (fig. 10) when the equator-to-pole gradient reaches its maximum. in comparison to the modern climate, the core of the subtropical jet stream shifts upward from 12 km height by 1 km because of an increase in temperature in the troposphere. in the northern hemisphere, the core of the jet stream shifts 2 8 poleward, consistent with the slight poleward shift of the trade winds (fig. 8
In any year the tropics were polarized?
the poleward shift of the jet stream in a hothouse world is also in agreement with evidence of recent climate change, indicating that the tropics have already expanded poleward during 1979-2005 (seidel et al. 2008). results from modeling studies (see section 3c) suggest that mountain uplift such as the formation of the himalayas affects the jet stream and the global climate. the increase in the petm subtropical jet stream intensity relative to the present day owing to an increase in the temperature gradient is partially compensated by lower altitudes of mountain chains over asia and north america
Describe the pedestal jet stream
in the southern hemisphere, the petm jet stream north of australia is stronger than at present because of the more polar location of the petm australian continent. with increasing atmospheric co2 concentrations, the jet stream over the petm atlantic intensifies slightly, related to a greater land-to-sea temperature gradient. the stratospheric radiative cooling (section 3b) leads to significantly lower polar pressures and an enhanced
the tropospheric jet stream and the baroclinic wave activity are strongest during the petm winter (fig. 10) when the equator-to-pole gradient reaches its maximum. in comparison to the modern climate, the core of the subtropical jet stream shifts upward from 12 km height by 1 km because of an increase in temperature in the troposphere. in the northern hemisphere, the core of the jet stream shifts 2 8 poleward, consistent with the slight poleward shift of the trade winds (fig. 8). the poleward shift of the jet stream in a hothouse world is also in agreement with evidence of recent climate change, indicating that the tropics have already expanded poleward during 1979-2005 (seidel et al. 2008). results from modeling studies (see section 3c) suggest that mountain uplift such as the formation of the himalayas affects the jet stream and the global climate. the increase in the petm subtropical jet stream intensity relative to the present day owing to an increase in the temperature gradient is partially compensated by lower altitudes of mountain chains over asia and north america. in the southern hemisphere, the petm jet stream north of australia is stronger than at present because of the more polar location of the petm australian continent. with increasing atmospheric co2 concentrations, the jet stream over the petm atlantic intensifies slightly, related to a greater land-to-sea temperature gradient. the stratospheric radiative cooling (section 3b) leads to significantly lower polar pressures and an enhanced
In recent years what have moddelling studies estimated?
over recent years, several modelling studies e.g. refs. 1-5) have made estimates of future tropospheric composition
What potentially important chemistry-climate feedbacks have been looked at?
several potentially important chemistry-climate feedbacks have been explored, such as those involving temperature, water vapour,7-10precipitation,11stratosphere-troposphere exchange,12,13and climate-driven changes in natural biogenic14and lightning emissions
What do we take into account in the analysis of results?
we analyse the results in terms of the effects of climate change and climate variability on composition, mainly focussing on tropospheric ozone and its precursors
over recent years, several modelling studies e.g. refs. 1-5) have made estimates of future tropospheric composition. in these studies the main driver of change is the evolution of the magnitude and spatial distribution of anthropogenic trace gas emissions e.g. ref. 6). there has also been an appreciation that future changes in physical climate may exert additional significant influences on composition, but modelling studies in this area have been less common. several potentially important chemistry-climate feedbacks have been explored, such as those involving temperature, water vapour,7-10precipitation,11stratosphere-troposphere exchange,12,13and climate-driven changes in natural biogenic14and lightning emissions.15a recent review of ozoneclimate interactions discusses many of these.16there have been even fewer studies of the impact of inter-annual climate variability on global tropospheric composition e.g. refs. 17-20), and little attempt to compare the mechanisms involved in these two overlapping areas. in this paper, we present new results from a state-of-the-art coupled climate-chemistry model (hadam3-stochem), which has been applied to the time period 1990-2030. we analyse the results in terms of the effects of climate change and climate variability on composition, mainly focussing on tropospheric ozone and its precursors. we first document the relevant physical climate drivers in these experiments. we then show how these drivers affect important natural emissions sources in the model, change in-situ chemical processes, and hence modify concentrations and distributions of a variety of trace species. we separately look at the influences on composition of both long-term climate change and inter-annual climate variability. we then discuss the relative importance of the various climate-chemistry interactions included in our model results, whilst noting some potentially important missing processes not considered in this work.
What variable is the most important determinants of human behaviour?
of all the imps that inhabit the nervous system, that little black box in psychological theorizing - the one we call meaning - is held by common consent to be the most elusive. yet again by common consent of social scientists, this variable is one of the most important determinants of human behavior
What does affect refer to?
affect refers to a person's good or bad, positive or negative feelings about specific objects, ideas or images
What does imagery refer to?
imagery refers to all forms of mental representation or cognitive content
"of all the imps that inhabit the nervous system, that little black box in psychological theorizing - the one we call meaning - is held by common consent to be the most elusive. yet again by common consent of social scientists, this variable is one of the most important determinants of human behavior" (osgood et al., 1957). "associations are simply a remarkably easy and efficient way of determining the contents of human minds without having those contents expressed in the full discursive structure of language" (szalay and deese, 1978, p. 9). again, affect refers to a person's good or bad, positive or negative feelings about specific objects, ideas or images. imagery refers to all forms of mental representation or cognitive content. images include both perceptual representations (pictures, sounds, smells) and symbolic representations (words, numbers, symbols) (damasio, 1999, pp. 317-321). in this sense, 'image' refers to more than just visually-based mental representations. affective images thus "include sights, sounds, smells, ideas, and words, to which positive and negative affect or feeling states have become attached through learning and experience" (slovic et al., 1998, p. 3). finally, affective image analysis uses a structured and systematic form of word association (described below) to identify the positive and negative connotations and symbolic meanings associated with particular hazards. free associations minimize the researcher bias potentially imposed in closed questionnaires; they are unfiltered, relatively contextfree, and spontaneous, thus providing a unique means to access and assess subjective meaning.2this simple, yet powerful measure allows researchers to 'map' the
What poses significant challenges to managing and maintaining indigenous biodiversity in natural ecosystems?
invasive alien plant species pose significant challenges to managing and maintaining indigenous biodiversity in natural ecosystems
How do invasive plants transform ecosystems?
invasive plants can transform ecosystems by establishing viable populations with growth rates high enough to displace elements of the native biota (rejmanek 1999) or to modify disturbance regimes (brooks et al. 2004), thereby potentially transforming ecosystem structure and functioning (dukes and mooney 2004
What is a widely stated view relative to the relationship between alien species invading new areas and climate change?
a widely stated view is that climate change is likely to enhance the capacity of alien species to invade new areas, while simultaneously decreasing the resistance to invasion of natural communities by disturbing the dynamic equilibrium maintaining them
invasive alien plant species pose significant challenges to managing and maintaining indigenous biodiversity in natural ecosystems. invasive plants can transform ecosystems by establishing viable populations with growth rates high enough to displace elements of the native biota (rejmanek 1999) or to modify disturbance regimes (brooks et al. 2004), thereby potentially transforming ecosystem structure and functioning (dukes and mooney 2004). because the numbers of invasive plant species and the extent of invasions are increasing rapidly in many regions, concern has grown about the stability of these novel,emerging ecosystems .the question of how climate change will interact in this global process of ecosystem modification is becoming highly relevant for natural resource management. although many studies have addressed the potential threats to ecosystems from invasive alien plants and climate change separately, few studies have considered the interactive and potentially synergistic impacts of these two factors on ecosystems (but see ziska 2003). climatic and landscape features set the ultimate limits to the geographic distribution of species and determine the seasonal conditions for establishment, recruitment, growth and survival (rejmanek and richardson 1996; thuiller et al. 2006b). human-induced climate change is therefore a pervasive element of the multiple forcing functions which maintain, generate and threaten natural biodiversity. a widely stated view is that climate change is likely to enhance the capacity of alien species to invade new areas, while simultaneously decreasing the resistance to invasion of natural communities by disturbing the dynamic equilibrium maintaining them. links between invasion dynamics and climate change are, nevertheless, particularly difficult to conceptualize (fig. 12.1). the determinants of plant invasiveness per se are extremely complex (rejmanek et al. 2005). consequently, efforts to combat plant invasions
What is traditional EOF and combined EOF (cEOF) analysis?
the primary statistical techniques used to isolate patterns of climate variability in the pacific are traditional eof and combined eof (ceof) analysis of the slpa and ssta fields. traditional eof analysis aims to break a large dataset with many state vectors, represented by a into a smaller set of state vectors that explains a large fraction of the variability in the original dataset
What is SVD?
with ceof analysis, two or more variables are placed into a which is subsequently decomposed using singular value decomposition (svd; e.g., bretherton et al. 1992
What is EOF analysis?
the resulting matrices depict shared patterns of variability among several variables. for eof analysis, each field is weighted by the square root of the cosine of latitude before computing
the primary statistical techniques used to isolate patterns of climate variability in the pacific are traditional eof and combined eof (ceof) analysis of the slpa and ssta fields. traditional eof analysis aims to break a large dataset with many state vectors, represented by a into a smaller set of state vectors that explains a large fraction of the variability in the original dataset. with ceof analysis, two or more variables are placed into a which is subsequently decomposed using singular value decomposition (svd; e.g., bretherton et al. 1992). hence, the resulting matrices depict shared patterns of variability among several variables. for eof analysis, each field is weighted by the square root of the cosine of latitude before computing the
Where did hurricane Jeanne hit?
hurricane jeanne hit several caribbean islands, but the number of flood-related deaths was more than 3,000 in haiti compared with a few dozen in all other affected countries, due in large part to haiti's highly degraded and flood-responsive watersheds
How do you compare the pattern of economic losses with 2008 hurricane season?
the pattern of economic losses was similar during the 2008 hurricane season, although the loss of life was far lower
How can mangroves and other coastal forests absorb wave energy and trap debris?
mangroves and other coastal forests can absorb wave energy and trap floating debris, reducing the destructive power of waves
flood dense vegetation cover within upper watershed areas increases infiltration of rainfall and reduces surface runoff, reducing peak flow rates except when soils are fully saturated. vegetation also protects against erosion, reducing soil loss and transport of mud and rock, which greatly increases the destructive power of floodwaters. hurricane jeanne hit several caribbean islands, but the number of flood-related deaths was more than 3,000 in haiti compared with a few dozen in all other affected countries, due in large part to haiti's highly degraded and flood-responsive watersheds. the pattern of economic losses was similar during the 2008 hurricane season, although the loss of life was far lower. dense vegetation protects riverbanks and adjacent land and structures from erosion by floodwaters. a study around mantadia national park, madagascar, concluded that conversion from primary forest to swidden can increase downstream storm flow by as much as 4.5 times. wetlands and floodplain soils absorb water, reducing peak flow rates downstream. communities have planted bamboo to protect channel embankments from annual floods in assam. canalization and drainage in the mississippi floodplain reduced flood storage capacity by 80 percent and have been linked to subsidence of large areas and the severity of the impact from hurricane katrina. tsunami, storm surge coral reefs and sand dunes (which in coastal areas typically depend on associated plant communities for maintenance) provide a physical barrier against waves and currents. modeling for the seychelles suggests that wave energy has doubled partially as a result of changes in the structure (due to bleaching) and species composition of coral reefs. in the caribbean, more than 15,000 kilometers of shoreline could experience a 10-20 percent reduction in protection from waves and storms by 2050 as a result of reef degradation. salt marshes and lagoons can divert and contain floodwaters. re-establishment of salt marshes forms part of coastal defense measures in the united kingdom. mangroves and other coastal forests can absorb wave energy and trap floating debris, reducing the destructive power of waves. data from two villages in sri lanka that were hit by the devastating asian tsunami in 2004 show that, while two people died in the settlement with dense mangrove and scrub forest, up to 6,000 people died in the village without similar vegetation. in japan, where good historical records exist, the role of forests in limiting the effects of tsunami damage have been demonstrated. continued
What does the diatom records  show about pre-disturbance for temperate lakes conditions?
for most temperate lakes, diatom records show that the pre-disturbance conditions are relatively stable over long periods of time
What does the Esthwaite Water dong at et al.'s analysis of core spanning imply?
in esthwaite water dong et al .'s analysis of a core spanning the last 1200 years showed that prior to the beginning of eutrophication in the late 19th century the lake was dominated for long periods by cyclotella comensis grunow and aulacoseira subarctica (o.f. muller) e.y.haworth with relative dominance switching between these taxa at the beginning and end of the medieval warm period (dong et al. 2012b
Which lake have abundance of chironomid egg and Cladoceran in sediments?
myvatn, a remote lake in north-east iceland
for most temperate lakes, diatom records show that the pre-disturbance conditions are relatively stable over long periods of time. in esthwaite water dong et al .'s analysis of a core spanning the last 1200 years showed that prior to the beginning of eutrophication in the late 19th century the lake was dominated for long periods by cyclotella comensis grunow and aulacoseira subarctica (o.f. muller) e.y.haworth with relative dominance switching between these taxa at the beginning and end of the medieval warm period (dong et al. 2012b). the eutrophication period, however, shows continuous species turnover over the last 100 years through to the present day. and in the case of myvatn, a remote lake in north-east iceland, the cyclical record of chironomid egg and cladoceran abundances in the sediments is thought to reflect a persistent natural feature of the lake (hauptfleisch et al ., 2012).
What is the main lesson of this table?
the difference between the criteria is far from negligible
Why do the discount rates tend to zero in the table from largest horizons?
the difference in consumption between the donors (5 units) and the worst-off in the worst scenario (1 unit) becomes very small in terms of annual growth rate
the main lesson of this table is that the difference between the criteria is far from negligible. the difference is smaller between the ede and average utilitarianism than between these two criteria and total utilitarianism, but other simulations done by the authors for different consumption paths show that other patterns are possible. the fact that the discount rates are not very different between the utilitarian criteria and the ede (which introduces additional inequality aversion via function is a direct consequence of adopting a utility function that varies very little between the consumptions of one and five units, so that the social priority between the two dynasties is mostly determined by marginal utility, as in utilitarianism. the discount rates tend to zero in the table for the largest horizons, because the difference in consumption between the donors (5 units) and the worst-off in the worst scenario (1 unit) becomes very small in terms of annual growth rate. observe that -3% per annum implies a strong priority for the future: it means that it worth sacrificing $4.6 now to transfer $1 fifty years into the future.
What kind of geographical feature is considered a barrier to migration?
not surprisingly, incorporation of large water bodies as migration barriers led to substantially higher required migration rates on islands and peninsulas, just as exclusion of anthropogenically modified habitats led to higher migration rates along the poleward margins of developed areas
How can forestation affect colonization?
for example, schwartz (1992) noted that compared with the original primary forest, the uneven quality of secondary forests of the north-eastern us could influence colonization by slow-growing shade tolerant trees and exacerbate differences in migration rates among species
Is biodiversity at risk from climate change?
these rates have the potential to reduce local biodiversity as species fail to keep pace with shifting climatic conditions
not surprisingly, incorporation of large water bodies as migration barriers led to substantially higher required migration rates on islands and peninsulas, just as exclusion of anthropogenically modified habitats led to higher migration rates along the poleward margins of developed areas. neither effect was widespread, although both were sometimes regionally important. for example, both factors contributed to higher migration rates in finland than in neighbouring regions. schwartz (1992) concluded that species migrations might be channelled around areas of development; a corollary is that migration might be especially limiting along the margins of developed areas. our results support the possibility that appropriate management within developed areas could improve prospects for migration (peters darling, 1985). the analysis presented here, however, is approximate in several respects. migration across water or developed habitat was treated as an all-or-none process. of course, the width of a barrier will affect the probability of traversing it. for example, there is little evidence of any lag in post-glacial migration because of finland's peninsular nature (c. prentice, pets. comm.). our analysis also made use of large grid cells, meaning that only relatively extensively developed areas were excluded from migration and that diffusion processes present at small spatial scales were lost (dyer, 1995). the use of the usgs classification also led to a strong focus on agricultural development; other tess intensive forms of development were ignored. for example, schwartz (1992) noted that compared with the original primary forest, the uneven quality of secondary forests of the north-eastern us could influence colonization by slow-growing shade tolerant trees and exacerbate differences in migration rates among species. in conclusion, evidence from coupled gcms and gvms suggests that global warming may require migration rates much faster than those observed during post-glacial times. these rates have the potential to reduce local biodiversity as species fail to keep pace with shifting climatic conditions. a full consideration of biodiversity impacts must consider not
How the IPCC defines adaptive capacity?
the ipcc defines adaptive capacity as "the ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences
what is adaptive capacity?
adaptive capacity is a measure of a system's ability to adapt to change
what's the difference between a system with a high adaptive capacity and one with a low?
a system with a high adaptive capacity is able to cope with, and perhaps even benefit from, changes in the climate, whereas a system with a low adaptive capacity would be more likely to suffer from the same change
the current vulnerability of a system is influenced by the interrelated factors of adaptive capacity, coping ranges and critical thresholds. the ipcc defines adaptive capacity as "the ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences."(14)more simply, adaptive capacity is a measure of a system's ability to adapt to change. a system with a high adaptive capacity is able to cope with, and perhaps even benefit from, changes in the climate, whereas a system with a low adaptive capacity would be more likely to suffer from the same change. enhancing adaptive capacity is an often-recommended "no-regrets" adaptation strategy that brings both immediate and long-term benefits. considerable research has been dedicated to identifying the factors that influence adaptive capacity see table 2). although this research provides useful indicators, quantitative assessment of adaptive capacity remains challenging. in fact, there is little agreement on the necessary criteria for evaluating these determinants, and what variables should be used.(8)
Who provided helpful discussion and feedback on this manuscript?
s. greenspan, j. greenspan, and e. perry
Who were instrumental in figure creation?
s. jones and m. wood
Why is the International Union for Conservation of Nature Climate Change Specialist Group being thanked?
for collaborative discussions on climate change themes and impacts on conservation of species and ecosystems
we thank the intergovernmental panel on climate change, intergovernmental platform on biodiversity and ecosystem services, and the thousands of researchers that have studied biodiversity and ecosystem services and the impacts of climate change on earth -- many of whom we were not able to cite because of length restrictions of the journal. s. greenspan, j. greenspan, and e. perry provided helpful discussion and feedback on this manuscript. s. jones and m. wood were instrumental in figure creation. l.d.m. acknowledges ku leuven research fund pf/2010/07 and future earth core project biogenesis. we thank the international union for conservation of nature climate change specialist group for collaborative discussions on climate change themes and impacts on conservation of species and ecosystems and three anonymous reviewers for constructive suggestions that improved our manuscript.
Describe the IPCC Third Assessment Report?
the ipcc third assessment report described vulnerability as "a function of the character, magnitude and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity
Why assessing vulnerability is limited ?
the extent to which this definition can be made operational for assessing vulnerability is limited because the defining concepts are either very general or their meaning is unclear. in addition, vulnerability is said to be a function of exposure, adaptive capacity and sensitivity, but nothing is said about the form of this function
as mentioned in section 2.3, the ipcc third assessment report described vulnerability as "a function of the character, magnitude and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity". it defined vulnerability as "the degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes" [2, p. 995]. the extent to which this definition can be made operational for assessing vulnerability is limited because the defining concepts are either very general or their meaning is unclear. in addition, vulnerability is said to be a function of exposure, adaptive capacity and sensitivity, but nothing is said about the form of this function. as a result of this unclarity we can only verify whether all elements of the ipcc definition are contained in our framework and whether there are any obvious contradictions between the two. there are four defining elements in the ipcc definition, two of which can be mapped directly to primitives used in our definition. the first element, the "degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with", is represented in our definition by the preorder  these preference criteria on the set of outputs y make it possible to assert that the system may end up in an undesirable state, thus being unable to cope with some stimulus. the second element, the "character, magnitude and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed" describes the (climate) stimulus to which the system is exposed. in our definition this element is the exogenous input e since we want to be able to consider non-climatic input as well, we do not limit e to climate stimuli. the other two defining elements in the ipcc definition, sensitivity and adaptive capacity, cannot be mapped directly to our primitives. we consider both concepts to be more complex properties of a system, which are therefore not suitable as starting points for a definition. however, both concepts can be defined using our primitives. "sensitivity" is a well-established concept in system theory, characterising how much a system's output is affected by a change in its input. it requires the differentiability of the functions f and g if this requirement is met, it can be shown that a system cannot be vulnerable to an exogenous input if it is not sensitive to that input, which agrees with the ipcc definiton. however, in our framework this requirement and 18 the notion of sensitivity are not necessary to define vulnerability. the fourth element, adaptive capacity, is defined by us as the set of effective actions available to the system. it is a more complex notion than vulnerability in that its definition relies on four primitives, not three. in addition to a dynamical system, exogenous input and preference criteria, endogenous input is required to define adaptive capacity (see definition 7). in contrast to the ipcc conceptualisation, knowledge of adaptive capacity is not required for assessing vulnerability, as is illustrated by the case of simple systems (as in example 1). however, adaptive capacity will influence the vulnerability of the more complex systems typically considered by the ipcc. as shown in section 3.4 (problem c and example 9), assessments of vulnerability and adaptive capacity are interrelated; their influence on one another depends on the preference criteria chosen.
Which method was used to obtain linear adjustments of climate trends? Answer: Least squares.
we used the least squares method to obtain the linear fits of trends in air temperature, precipitation, soil moistures, groundwater tables, annual ratio of water yield to precipitation, monthly 7-day low flow and the maximum daily flow in may and june
What indicates the fact that the data does not meet the statistical assumptions? Answer: Data transfer, or alternative statistical tests.
where data do not meet those statistical assumptions, data were transferred or alternative statistical tests (i.e. distribution-free non-parametric test) were applied
When are trends considered to be statistically significant in the analysis of climate data? Answer: When the indications are significantly different from zero.
if the slopes of fitted linear lines are significantly different from zero t -test: p 0.05), the trends are considered to be statistically significant
prior to any statistical analysis, data must be checked on normality, autocorrelation etc. where data do not meet those statistical assumptions, data were transferred or alternative statistical tests (i.e. distribution-free non-parametric test) were applied. we used the least squares method to obtain the linear fits of trends in air temperature, precipitation, soil moistures, groundwater tables, annual ratio of water yield to precipitation, monthly 7-day low flow and the maximum daily flow in may and june (figs 2 and 3). if the slopes of fitted linear lines are significantly different from zero t -test: p 0.05), the trends are considered to be statistically significant.
This finding shows why ?
ignoring inequality within regions may be unacceptable
We find that it would require a redistributive tax on what?
consumption of 65% to make the two carbon price trajectories the same
it is assumed that the tax has no disincentive effects on?
reducing gross domestic product (gdp
this finding shows why ignoring inequality within regions may be unacceptable from the perspective of both justice and sustainability, if one understands justice as requiring that (current) benefits to the affluent should not stem from activities that harm the (future) poor, and sustainability as requiring that future generations be able to sustain their predecessors ' level of living standards, not only on average but also in the most disadvantaged groups. redistribution by other means it is well understood from the theoretical cost - benefit analysis literature that such attention to distributional issues would be unnecessary, and even inefficient, if first-best transfer policies were available to correct for inequalities. to determine whether the additional mitigation effort we compute could be obviated by an exogenous level of income redistribution, we add to the model a revenue-neutral constantproportion " flat " tax on the postdamage consumption levels. the tax revenue is distributed equally, as a lump-sum basic income. specifically, we investigate the magnitude of the tax that would bring the carbon price back to the rice-nordhaus level even when x 0. that is, we calibrate the tax to generate the same optimal mitigation effort in two scenarios (both with nordhaus ' s normative parameters): i nice with the redistributive tax in the case of equal-damage distribution x 0) and ii rice (which has no inequality within regions) without redistribution. to make the case as favorable as possible to redistributive taxation, it is assumed that the tax has no disincentive effects reducing gross domestic product (gdp). therefore, this redistribution is maximally effective. we examine two variants of such redistributive taxation. in the first variant, we assume that transfers will happen only within regions, with the same tax rate in all regions and at all times. we find that it would require a redistributive tax on consumption of 65% to make the two carbon price trajectories the same.{{{
What is the brinkmanship effect?
similarly, the brinkmanship effect, according to which a region may want to harm the other region's outside option, is akin to the incomplete-contract idea that parties bias their technological choices so as to enhance their own outside option and to worsen the other party's outside option e.g. holmstrom and tirole(1991) the literature on second sourcing - farrell and gallini (1988), shepard (1987) - also makes the point that outside options ought to be manipulated in anticipation of a future negotiation
What is the position of the referenced literature regarding ex-ante investments?
the common thread with that literature is the idea that ex-ante investments in fl uence the outcome of ex-post negotiations
Does bargaining power affect incentives to invest?
indeed the idea that one's bargaining power in a future negotiation affects one's incentive to invest can be found in grossman - hart and the entire incomplete-contract literature
second, by taking the view that negotiations take time, we implicitly study the role of incomplete contracts and the importance of property rights allocations in a context of global externalities. our paper thereby builds on the incomplete contracts and hold up literature grossman and hart, 1986; hart and moore, 1990; willamson, 1985 ). the common thread with that literature is the idea that ex-ante investments in fl uence the outcome of ex-post negotiations. our paper does not add to the theoretical body of knowledge on incomplete contracting. indeed the idea that one's bargaining power in a future negotiation affects one's incentive to invest can be found in grossman - hart and the entire incomplete-contract literature. similarly, the brinkmanship effect, according to which a region may want to harm the other region's outside option, is akin to the incomplete-contract idea that parties bias their technological choices so as to enhance their own outside option and to worsen the other party's outside option e.g. holmstrom and tirole(1991) the literature on second sourcing - farrell and gallini (1988), shepard (1987) - also makes the point that outside options ought to be manipulated in anticipation of a future negotiation). finally, the " raising rival's cost effect " bears resemblance not only with the forward-market literature, but also with the literature on free-riding in
Is annual temperature  follow any  predictable trend with elevation and distance from the coast?
our research clearly shows that mean annual temperature does not follow any predictable trend with elevation and distance from the coast due to the overwhelming influence of exposure to katabatic winds
these equations were tested on data not used in their construction, and have an accuracy of +-0.9  c when the prediction is based on one measured value. accuracy improves to +-0.4  c when six other stations are used in equation (3) and the results averaged. in order to better visualize summer temperature variation in the region based on these equations, we draped equation (1) over a digital elevation model of the dry valleys region (figure 16). figure 16 should be interpreted with caution above the floor of the three valleys discussed here, since we have not tested its applicability at higher elevations. the impact of proximity to glacier ice on the model also needs to be tested. other authors have attempted to model paleotemperature throughout the dry valleys using assumptions about mean annual temperature trends and elevation marchant and denton 1996; sugden et al. 1995], but these attempts were based on the limited published data available in the past. our research clearly shows that mean annual temperature does not follow any predictable trend with elevation and distance from the coast due to the overwhelming influence of exposure to katabatic winds. however, a developed summer temperature model based on our data could be applied to paleoenvironments, using isolated summer temperature proxies to extrapolate to other regions of the dry valleys. we suggest that the relationship of figure 14. plot of the difference between fryxell and bonney summer temperature weighted by lake bonney wind direction frequency versus wind direction at lake bonney (in 1  increments). figure 15. lake bonney versus lake fryxell wind direction during the summer (djf) months.
What does the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment data  conclude on  coastal and island ecosystems?
the millennium ecosystem assessment (7, 13) used available data and indicators to conclude that coastal and island ecosystems are already among the most highly threatened systems in the world
what are some of the most vulnerable coastal ecosystems that affect the ecosystem services?
s all coastal ecosystems are downstream of upland land uses and pollution sources, some of the most vulnerable ecosystems--such as coral reefs, estuaries, wetlands, and mangrove forests--are greatly degraded, and their ecosystem services (e.g., fisheries, water filtering, flood protection, carbon capture in wetlands, and aesthetic value) are already compromised
over the past decade and more, there have been improvements in tracking and assessing the effects of human disturbance on coastal ecosystems (12). the millennium ecosystem assessment (7, 13) used available data and indicators to conclude that coastal and island ecosystems are already among the most highly threatened systems in the world. as all coastal ecosystems are downstream of upland land uses and pollution sources, some of the most vulnerable ecosystems--such as coral reefs, estuaries, wetlands, and mangrove forests--are greatly degraded, and their ecosystem services (e.g., fisheries, water filtering, flood protection, carbon capture in wetlands, and aesthetic value) are already compromised. ecological degradation has been the price or unintended consequence of continued human development in the coastal zone. the wealth generated has not been shared equally. in many developing nations in particular, exposure of the poor and disadvantaged segments of urban populations to flooding and storm surge hazards, lack of sanitation, and access to only the most marginal resources and degraded ecosystems is all too common (7). even in developed nations like the united states, wealth is not distributed equally in coastal areas, leading to significant differences in social vulnerability (14). when combined with the exposure to physical threats, such as climate change (15) and the degradation of local environments, complex pictures of
What are emission rights?
in contrast to the other policy scenarios, the distribution of emission rights according to gdp enables the industrialized countries not only to reduce the share of imported carbon certificates but even to sell their emission rights in a significant magnitude
What are MEAs?
initially, japan, eur and uca represent big sellers in the permit mar27 ket (see figure 15(a)). in return, all developing regions (in particular mea and china) and russia are buying permits
What are emission rights?
this is also true for india until 2070. the resultant amount of emission rights for india and africa restricts on the one hand the allocation of emission rights to other regions and results on the other hand in a quasi monopolistic position of africa in the sale of emission rights after 2070. in the short to mid term, india dominates the export of emission rights. row plays its role as major exporter of permits until 2050 only
in contrast to the other policy scenarios, the distribution of emission rights according to gdp enables the industrialized countries not only to reduce the share of imported carbon certificates but even to sell their emission rights in a significant magnitude. initially, japan, eur and uca represent big sellers in the permit mar27 ket (see figure 15(a)). in return, all developing regions (in particular mea and china) and russia are buying permits. mea remains the largest importer of emission permits, while china and row become major sellers of permits in the mid and long term. the peak in emissions trading of nearly 1.5 gtc appears already in 2010. the yearly trade volume decreases fast to 0.5 gtc in 2030, and thereafter more slowly to 0.15 gtc in 2100. in policy scenario c, the distribution of roles between emission right purchasers and sellers is similar to policy scenario a. however, there is a considerable shift of shares on the sellers' side. in policy scenario c, china's export shares are negligible. since africa will raise its per capita income quite slowly (true for all scenarios), it will not reach the stage where substantial emission reductions will become necessary. this is also true for india until 2070. the resultant amount of emission rights for india and africa restricts on the one hand the allocation of emission rights to other regions and results on the other hand in a quasi monopolistic position of africa in the sale of emission rights after 2070. in the short to mid term, india dominates the export of emission rights. row plays its role as major exporter of permits until 2050 only.
How are climate impacts of global warming assessed?
we assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data
What climate range are humanity and other species on Earth adapted to?
the holocene range
According to this paragraph, what is the requirement for responsible policymaking?
a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels
we assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. we use earth's measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today's young people, future generations, and nature. a cumulative industrial-era limit of 500 gtc fossil fuel emissions and 100 gtc storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. cumulative emissions of 1000 gtc, sometimes associated with 2 u c global warming, would spur ''slow'' feedbacks and eventual warming of 3-4 u c with disastrous consequences. rapid emissions reduction is required to restore earth's energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels.
Who should facilitate "climate risk management"?
while climate risk management primarily belongs in the bank's regions, it should be facilitated by central support and coordination
How would it be best to expand to the full scope proposed?
the best way to expand it to the full scope proposed here might be to focus initially on a few countries
How would a hotspot screening work?
a hotspot screening (section 3.5) could identify good opportunities for pilots in risk assessment and incorporation in current operations
while climate risk management primarily belongs in the bank's regions, it should be facilitated by central support and coordination. these tasks could be covered jointly by the disaster management facility and the global climate change team. in the past years, these two focal points have collaborated closely on climate change issues, but neither of the two currently has enough capacity, and there would be great merit in strengthening them. key elements of bank-wide support and coordination would include the following elements: information services the climate risk management knowledge base (see section 3.2): * a database of climate risk information; * risk management methodologies, guidelines and checklists; * good practice examples of risk assessments in operational contexts; and projects, country assistance strategies and prsps containing risk management elements. some of this information is already available (for instance at the current websites of the dmf and the global climate change team7). the best way to expand it to the full scope proposed here might be to focus initially on a few countries. as a first step, a hotspot screening (section 3.5) could identify good opportunities for pilots in risk assessment and incorporation in current operations. the countries containing these hotspots would be the first for which the knowledge base would be compiled, where that information would feed into the cas, experience could be built on incorporating risk management in a few ongoing and upcoming projects, and where methodologies for routine risk screening could be tested. the experience gained in that process could be used to refine the methodologies and tools. depending on the final shape of the tools and their adoption, some capacity for climate risk management could eventually be established at the regional level, with the global climate change team and the disaster management facility acting as focal points for cross-regional sharing of experience and liaising with the global policy arena and funding mechanisms. practical assistance could consist of * technical cross-support to help out with risk assessments and risk management project components, to apply analytical risk assessment tools and translate their outcomes to operational applications; * a database of experts.
What are crucial measures for a successful climate policy?
measures to induce or accelerate technological change will be crucial for a successful climate policy
What do IAMs assume?
many iams assume decreasing returns and/or exogenous technological progress and treat abatement costs as an unproductive loss of income, not an investment in energy-conserving capital
Have climate-saving models improved or worsened over time?
climate-economics models have improved over the years, including expanded treatment of externalities, technological innovation and regional disaggregation. but there is still tremendous scope for further improvement, including more extensive sensitivity analyses and more rigorous examination of risk and uncertainty
measures to induce or accelerate technological change will be crucial for a successful climate policy; a realistic model must allow endogenous technical change and increasing returns. many iams assume decreasing returns and/or exogenous technological progress and treat abatement costs as an unproductive loss of income, not an investment in energy-conserving capital. climate-economics models have improved over the years, including expanded treatment of externalities, technological innovation and regional disaggregation. but there is still tremendous scope for further improvement, including more extensive sensitivity analyses and more rigorous examination of risk and uncertainty. fundamentally subjective judgements, especially those that embody deeply value laden assumptions, can be made more explicit. what difference would it make to change these features of climate economics modelling? in the absence of a better model, we can only speculate about the results. our guess is that the modifications we have proposed would make a climate economics model more consistent with the broad outlines of climate science models, portraying the growing seriousness of the problem, the ominous risks of catastrophe and the need for immediate action.
What does ENSO stand for?
el nino southern oscillation
Which crop are the researchers focused on?
towards a 2030 cassava crop
Which ocean are researchers monitoring?
atlantic-indian oceans sea surface temperature
this analysis looks at average climate conditions during the entire cassava growing season, and does not look at within season climatic constraints which may affect the cassava crops. nor does this look at climatic variability, such as changes in onset of rainy seasons due to alterations in atlantic-indian oceans sea surface temperature (sst) anomalies, the consequent change in monsoonal cycles and the el nino southern oscillation (enso) (douglass et al., 2008; hulme et al., 2001; nicholson et al., 2000). further research should exploit the potential of mechanistic models for examining growth on a daily time step, and also permit more sophisticated scenarios for crop improvement which exploits particular physiological traits. ex ante impact assessment of the benefits of biotic constraints is also a priority for further work. 3.6. towards a 2030 cassava crop
What does Determination of model parameters requires?
determination of model parameters requires dividing the data by the singular values such that errors are amplified by the very small singular values. in order to reduce the effect of noise on the stability of the results, it is necessary to eliminate the singular values smaller than an empirically determined cutoff value wiggins 1972
What are the solutions obtained?
nonetheless, the solutions obtained by retaining only a few singular values reproduce the gross features of the shfhs and gsths menke 1989
the inversion procedure for these gsths and shfhs is similar and includes simultaneous inversion for surface temperature history or surface heat flux history and quasi steady-state geothermal heat flux. the gsth model and the shfh models are geometrically identical. the parameterization, however, needs to be different for the solution to this problem to be stable. determination of model parameters requires dividing the data by the singular values such that errors are amplified by the very small singular values. in order to reduce the effect of noise on the stability of the results, it is necessary to eliminate the singular values smaller than an empirically determined cutoff value wiggins 1972]. nonetheless, the solutions obtained by retaining only a few singular values reproduce the gross features of the shfhs and gsths menke 1989]. the variance of the estimated model parameters sm 2) can be written in terms of the eigenvectors v and singular value l as jackson 1972]
How does convection relate fo climate change?
an important diagnostic of climate change
How does drying impact weather patterns?
for the western united states, drying in the warmer climate reduces the frequency of lightning-producing storms that initiate forest fires
the intensity of moist convection is an important diagnostic of climate change not currently predicted by most climate models. we show that a simple estimate of the vertical velocity of convective updrafts in a global climate model reproduces observed land-ocean differences in convective intensity. changes in convective intensity in a doubled co2 simulation are small because the tropical lapse rate tends to follow a moist adiabatic profile. however, updrafts strengthen by  1 m s 1with warming in the lightning-producing regions of continental convective storms, primarily due to an upward shift in the freezing level. for the western united states, drying in the warmer climate reduces the frequency of lightning-producing storms that initiate forest fires, but the strongest storms occur 26% more often. for the central-eastern united states, stronger updrafts combined with weaker wind shear suggest little change in severe storm occurrence with warming, but the most severe storms occur more often. citation: del genio, a. d., m.-s. yao, and j. jonas (2007), will moist convection be stronger in a warmer climate?, geophys. res. lett. 34 l16703, doi:10.1029/2007gl030525.
why trust scientest?
science knows to improve their lives
is commination of normal science?
vital to practical decision makers
pluralistic society do and don't converse science?
it is one that further investigation of which, moreover, is very much warranted by the evidence of its correctness that we already have in hand
people, of all cultural outlooks, trust scientists and are eager to make use of what science knows to improve their lives (national science foundation, 2013; pew research center, 2009). but the people whose orienting influence they need to observe are not scientists. they are the people in their everyday lives whose guiding example ordinary members of the public use to figure out what evidence of scientific belief they should credit and which they should dismiss. the communication of normal science, by scientists is vital to practical decision makers--from insurance agents to farmers, from investment brokers to military leaders. but what needs to be communicated to ordinary members of the public, in their capacity as citizens, is the normality of using climate science. and they have to communicate that to themselves or so one might conjecture based on an assessment of the relevant sample of cases in which the members of a highly pluralistic society do and don't converge on what is known to science. it is one that further investigation of which, moreover, is very much warranted by the evidence of its correctness that we already have in hand.
What collor lines represente climatic variables have their most positive or negative correlations
grey lines
What does the y -axis indicates?
the slope coefficient for each of these correlations
extended data figure 5 seasonal windows for csps. a - d estimated climatic sensitivity at the lower a c and upper b d limits of csps for 10,003 phenological series. grey lines are seasonal time periods x -axis) within which climatic variables have their most positive or negative correlations with the seasonal timing of each phenological event. the y -axis indicates the slope coefficient for each of these correlations; a measure of climate sensitivity (days change per degc or per mm). shown are the lower and upper limits of csp<s179>temp a and b respectively) and the lower and upper limits of csp<s179>precip c and d respectively). inset histograms show seasonal time window length (days) n 370,725).
What do higher risks imply for smallholders?
more costs
What information is largely missing?
information concerning the way in which climate variability and climate extremes may affect thresholds and tipping points among different farm enterprises in relation to different household objectives
What is a promising avenue for improvement?
identification of synergies between global, regional and local studies
second, there are substantial limitations in our impact models, at all scales. this certainly applies to models of crops and livestock and on the effects of variability on the quantity and quality of crop and livestock production. identification of synergies between global, regional and local studies is a promising avenue for improvement (challinor et al., 2014b). much work is needed on extending the applicability of current crop and livestock models to the higher-temperature and more variable climates projected as increasingly likely under higher greenhouse gas emission scenarios. equally importantly, such gaps exist in relation to models of farming systems and the ways in which biophysical and socio-economic drivers of change combine in particular situations (challinor et al., 2009), and information concerning the way in which climate variability and climate extremes may affect thresholds and tipping points among different farm enterprises in relation to different household objectives is largely missing. gaps also exist concerning the appropriate incorporation of risk and dynamics in farming system models. for smallholders, higher risks usually imply more costs, directly or indirectly, and so there is a need to link risk to decision making profiles of farmers and their
The first section provides some suggestive evidence on the validity of what approach?
this section is divided into three subsections. the first provides some suggestive evidence on the validity of the hedonic approach and then present results from that approach
What are the three most important crops?
the third and final subsection estimates the effect of climate change on crop yields for the three most important crops (i.e., corn for grain, soybeans, and wheat for grain
What type of estimates does the third subsection provide?
the third and final subsection estimates the effect of climate change on crop yields for the three most important crops (i.e., corn for grain, soybeans, and wheat for grain
this section is divided into three subsections. the first provides some suggestive evidence on the validity of the hedonic approach and then present results from that approach. the second subsection presents results from the fitting of equation (4) to estimate the impact of climate change on the us agricultural sector. it also probes the distributional consequences of climate change across the country. the third and final subsection estimates the effect of climate change on crop yields for the three most important crops (i.e., corn for grain, soybeans, and wheat for grain). the intent is to determine the source of the profit results.
Are the materials in this journal peer-reviewed, re-organized, copy-edited, and/or typeset?
such materials are peer-reviewed and may be re-organized for online delivery, but are not copy-edited or typeset
Who should technical support issues arising from supporting information be addressed to?
technical support issues arising from supporting information (other than missing files) should be addressed to the authors
On what date was this manuscript accepted?
manuscript accepted 20 december 2010
results of spatially explicit simultaneous autoregressive (sar) error models for beta diversity in the global freshwater fish fauna, including table s3. appendix s3 supplementary figures s1, s2, s3 and s4. as a service to our authors and readers, this journal provides supporting information supplied by the authors. such materials are peer-reviewed and may be re-organized for online delivery, but are not copy-edited or typeset. technical support issues arising from supporting information (other than missing files) should be addressed to the authors. editor, peter mumby manuscript received 24 september 2010 first decision made 2 november 2010 second decision made 9 december 2010 manuscript accepted 20 december 2010
Describe the detailed breakdown table of salsa and iyeffs?
a detailed breakdown of the sls and aie rfs is given in table s2 the largest individual effects ~ 200 mwm- 2) are imposed by sulfate aerosol from the power and industry sectors and carbonaceous aerosols from biomass burning
Define: Organic Carbon ?
the ratio of black carbon to organic carbon rf is important since these species are usually emitted together but have rf of opposite sign
Which is the largest organic burning carbon?
the organic carbon rf for biomass burning is about twice as large as the black carbon rf from this sector, even though this activity gives the largest single black carbon rf. additional substantial black and organic carbon
a detailed breakdown of the sls and aie rfs is given in table s2 the largest individual effects ~ 200 mwm- 2) are imposed by sulfate aerosol from the power and industry sectors and carbonaceous aerosols from biomass burning. the ratio of black carbon to organic carbon rf is important since these species are usually emitted together but have rf of opposite sign. the organic carbon rf for biomass burning is about twice as large as the black carbon rf from this sector, even though this activity gives the largest single black carbon rf. additional substantial black and organic carbon
The term irreversibility is used in various ways in the?
literature
This section discusses the long or short term climate change?
long term
According to the paragraph climate change is based on the RCP scenario extensions and ?
idealized scenarios
this section discusses the long term (century to millennia) climate change based on the rcp scenario extensions and idealized scenarios, the commitment from current atmospheric composition and from past emissions, the concept of cumulative carbon and the resulting constraints on emissions for various temperature targets. the term irreversibility is used in various ways in the literature. this report defines a perturbed state as irreversible on a given time scale if the recovery time scale from this state due to natural processes is significantly longer than the time it takes for the system to reach this perturbed state (see glossary), for example, the climate change resulting from the long residence time of a co2 perturbation in the atmosphere. these results are discussed in sections 12.5.2 to 12.5.4. aspects of irreversibility in the context of abrupt change, multiple steady states and hysteresis are discussed in section 12.5.5 and in chapter 13 for ice sheets and sea level rise.
Define livelihood flexibility?
in responding to recent calls for a social and political turn in resilience thinking18-21, we define livelihood resilience as the capacity of all people across generations to sustain and improve their livelihood opportunities and well-being despite environmental, economic, social and political disturbances
The dynamic process of social change?
such resilience is underpinned by human agency and empowerment, by individual and collective action, and by human rights, set within dynamic processes of social transformation
Livelihoods and recession shrink?
this approach takes the additional step of integrating livelihoods and resilience22,23 with a normative framing, centred on people as the main actors within adaptation policy and practice, underpinned by rights and justice, and engaged with wider development processes
in responding to recent calls for a social and political turn in resilience thinking18-21, we define livelihood resilience as the capacity of all people across generations to sustain and improve their livelihood opportunities and well-being despite environmental, economic, social and political disturbances. such resilience is underpinned by human agency and empowerment, by individual and collective action, and by human rights, set within dynamic processes of social transformation. this approach takes the additional step of integrating livelihoods and resilience22,23 with a normative framing, centred on people as the main actors within adaptation policy and practice, underpinned by rights and justice, and engaged with wider development processes.
What is Global warming?
global warming and the associated rise in extreme temperatures substantially increase the chance of concurrent droughts and heat waves
Global warming in California?
the 2014 california drought is an archetype of an event characterized by not only low precipitation but also extreme high temperatures. from the raging wild fi res, to record low storage levels and snowpack conditions, the impacts of this event can be felt throughout california
The study discusses a methodology for assessing the risk of concurrent extremes such as droughts and extreme temperatures?
here we show that the traditional univariate risk assessment methods based on precipitation condition may substantially underestimate the risk of extreme events such as the 2014 california drought because of ignoring the effects of temperature. we argue that a multivariate viewpoint is necessary for assessing risk of extreme events, especially in a warming climate
global warming and the associated rise in extreme temperatures substantially increase the chance of concurrent droughts and heat waves. the 2014 california drought is an archetype of an event characterized by not only low precipitation but also extreme high temperatures. from the raging wild fi res, to record low storage levels and snowpack conditions, the impacts of this event can be felt throughout california. wintertime water shortages worry decision-makers the most because it is the season to build up water supplies for the rest of the year. here we show that the traditional univariate risk assessment methods based on precipitation condition may substantially underestimate the risk of extreme events such as the 2014 california drought because of ignoring the effects of temperature. we argue that a multivariate viewpoint is necessary for assessing risk of extreme events, especially in a warming climate. this study discusses a methodology for assessing the risk of concurrent extremes such as droughts and extreme temperatures.
The developing world is right to suspect which part of the world?
the developing world is right to be suspicious of the west
What do the people of the West need to do with governments?
the people of the west need to urgently make their governments act
Some effects of climate change are inevitable, so what will these preventive actions do?
these actions will surely prevent the worst
so what to do? potential catastrophe as well as looking to the future rather than the present, concentrates much more than disaster strikes on what must be done to reduce the impacts of climate change. the developing world is right to be suspicious of the west, but this is where the money to mitigate and adapt must come from. the people of the west need to urgently make their governments act; there is not much time left. they can do this safe in the knowledge that there is no need for upheaval within their lives, or within the wider global system. instead, 24 we need a shift in our moral code and a subsequent proportionate transfer of funds to developing countries, as well as widespread action on mitigation. although, some worrying effects of climate change are inevitable, these actions will surely prevent the worst.
What are Greenpeace's communication strategies?
the use of beautiful and shocking images, as well as the visual framing of their actions
What has Greenpeace committed to?
given that greenpeace has been committed, more than any other international ngo, to communicating and giving meaning to the science of climate change before impacts could be seen
Who recognized the role played by Greenpeace?
mormont and dasnoy (1995) have acknowledged the significant role that greenpeace played in first identifying the problem and science of climate change
the shock inscribed in this aesthetic framing of the landscape also corresponds to the events-based tactics of the news media coverage of the environment. this issue has been examined by a number of environmental theorists (hansen, 1993; anderson, 1997; allan et al. 2000), who have argued that such events-based tactics do not enable the communication of long term and accumulative (non-visible) environmental problems. the communication strategies of greenpeace - the use of beautiful and shocking images, as well as the visual framing of their actions - fall prey to the limitations of events-based reportage. given that greenpeace has been committed, more than any other international ngo, to communicating and giving meaning to the science of climate change before impacts could be seen, its investment in photographing the beautiful and spectacular as a means of environmental communication is thus constrained by the temporal nature of climate change as an ongoing and accumulative problem, not always visible. environmental groups, however, play an important role in framing environmental issues. mormont and dasnoy (1995) have acknowledged the significant role that greenpeace played in first identifying the problem and science of climate change. yet, like hansen, they argue that for environmental issues to be made meaningful to the public, frameworks of interpretation need to be established. when it comes to climate change, the facts completely escape common experience for it is only by communication that the issue is given meaning the taking account of these facts (or hypotheses) by public opinion presupposes an interpretative context, one that may designate the risks and the victims, in short, the social context which gives these facts meaning. (mormont and dasnoy, 1995, p. 61) the framing of climate change science is crucial to bringing attention to, and legitimating, the issue. the legitimacy of environmental issues and perceived risks can be linked to 'questions about the ease with which some issues link into powerful, historically established, symbolic imagery' (hansen, 1991, p. 451). in a similar vein, alison anderson points out that certain issues gain public legitimacy through their capacity to signify symbolically: '(t)hese issues tend to have particular "carrying capacities"; they become icons or symbols for a wide range of concerns that people can easily identify with' (anderson, 1997, pp. 5-6). i would maintain that, in the case of climate change predictions, the lack of visible evidence of this problem made it difficult for the issue to be linked to an established set of symbolic imagery. this lack of visual evidence, related to the temporal aspect of climate change as a risk that develops over time, also contributed to the lack of international politics addressing the issue, as well as low public perception. socio-politics of climate change science it is not merely the unseen nature of climate change that has proven difficult for its communication. environmental issues require articulating as problems in the first instance for them to gain legitimacy as matters of public and political concern. anders hansen argues that environmental issues, 'like any other social problems need to be identified and defined as such, and made visible in the public sphere or in public arenas before they representational politics of climate change communication 133
What is one of the most drought-prone districts in Andhra Pradesh?
anantapur is one of the most drought-prone districts in andhra pradesh
What does the co-efficient varuation of mean monthly rainfall mean?
the co-efficient of variation of mean monthly rainfall of anantapur and mahbubnagar shows a high level of variability especially during crucial crop growing months
What is crucial about July rainfall?
note that july rainfall is crucial for agriculture as most of the rainfed crops are sown and rice transplanting also takes place during this month
anantapur is one of the most drought-prone districts in andhra pradesh. the annual average rainfall is 552 mm, of which more than 60 percent is received between june and september during the summer monsoon season. mahbubnagar receives an average annual rainfall of 850mm, with monthly rainfall showing a dominant uni-modal monsoon season pattern with a maximum rainfall in july. the co-efficient of variation of mean monthly rainfall of anantapur and mahbubnagar shows a high level of variability especially during crucial crop growing months. note that july rainfall is crucial for agriculture as most of the rainfed crops are sown and rice transplanting also takes place during this month. see figure 2 (next page).
Who were the first to suggest simulations of climate models?
crutzen and birks
In which year?
1982
What would be the consequences of a nuclear war according to the article?
as first suggested by crutzen and birks [1982], climate model simulations by turco et al. [1983] and aleksandrov and stenchikov [1983] showed that a full-scale nuclear war would produce surface temperature, precipitation, and insolation reductions so large that the climatic consequences were described as ''nuclear winter.'' soon after the world was confronted with the prospect of potential indirect effects of nuclear war much larger than the direct effects, and starvation of billions of people from the collapse of world agriculture, the arms race and cold war ended
as first suggested by crutzen and birks [1982], climate model simulations by turco et al. [1983] and aleksandrov and stenchikov [1983] showed that a full-scale nuclear war would produce surface temperature, precipitation, and insolation reductions so large that the climatic consequences were described as ''nuclear winter.'' soon after the world was confronted with the prospect of potential indirect effects of nuclear war much larger than the direct effects, and starvation of billions of people from the collapse of world agriculture, the arms race and cold war ended. since then, the global nuclear arsenal has been reduced by a factor of three. prompted by the recent work of toon et al. [2007] and robock et al. [2007], who showed that a regional nuclear conflict using 100 hiroshima-size (15 kt) nuclear weapons, only 0.03% of the explosive power of the current global arsenal, would produce climate change unprecedented in human history, we revisit the nuclear winter issue with a modern climate model. we ask the question of whether the current nuclear arsenal could still produce a nuclear winter. all previous simulations of the climatic response to the smoke generated from a nuclear war were limited by computer power and the available climate models. as shown in table 1, each simulation addressed certain aspects of the climate model response with simple climate models or with short simulations of low-resolution atmospheric general circulation models (gcms), but now for the first time we use a coupled atmosphere-ocean gcm run continuously for multiple 10-year simulations and with a model top at the mesopause. some critics of previous nuclear winter results suggested that once uncertainties were addressed, the severity of the results would decrease. because of the use of the term ''nuclear autumn'' by thompson and schneider [1986], even though the authors made clear that the climatic consequences would be large, in policy circles the theory of nuclear winter is considered by some to have been exaggerated and disproved [e.g., martin 1988]. so we are motivated to include simulations of mechanisms not previously addressed, to see whether prior results would hold up. however, unknowns by definition are unknown, and it turns out that not only do we still get a nuclear winter using the previous baseline case, but that
What is the average tax on gasoline per liter in Western Europe?
in our sample of countries, the us would have had a somewhat higher tax and the eastern european countries considerably lower values. as we can see in table 2 the average for western europe is 80 cents per liter, which is high compared to the us and many other non-european countries
Does taxation on gasoline vary within Western Europe?
within western europe variation is limited although it can still be quite significant considering that many are actually neighboring countries
Apart from fuel taxes, what over taxes are levied directly on vehicles?
when we discuss fuel taxes we should bear in mind that motoring also bears a number of additional taxes and fees that are levied directly on vehicles (registration fees, yearly taxes, vehicle sales taxes) or on road use (tolls, congestion fees and so forth
when we discuss fuel taxes we should bear in mind that motoring also bears a number of additional taxes and fees that are levied directly on vehicles (registration fees, yearly taxes, vehicle sales taxes) or on road use (tolls, congestion fees and so forth). there are also a number of other policies that vary between countries concerning the way in which public transport is financed, taxed and/or subsidized. these policies all have effects on fuel consumption but they are more complicated to compare. table 2 shows the average rate of taxation on gasoline. this indicator is a weighted average reflecting the varying composition of fuels with different octane (premium and regular) in the proportions actually used in each country. it is expressed in international cents converted by purchasing power parity. this is a useful way to provide an indicator of the actual burden the tax places on the representative motorist. this makes it attractive as an indicator of the intensity or strength of a policy instrument. the reader should be aware, however, that the comparisons would be different if we had used market exchange rates. the difference for most high-income countries is small but for some low-income countries it is more substantial. in our sample of countries, the us would have had a somewhat higher tax and the eastern european countries considerably lower values. as we can see in table 2 the average for western europe is 80 cents per liter, which is high compared to the us and many other non-european countries. countries such as japan and australia are intermediate. within western europe variation is limited although it can still be quite significant considering that many are actually neighboring countries. looking at gasoline prices and taxes in the 1970s
What is the Neoproterozoic?
the era extending from 1,000 million years ago (1,000 mya) to 540 million years ago (540 mya), a stretch of time essentially as long as the phanerozoic
What does the middle of the Neoproterozoic mark?
the return of glaciation to earth after a billion-year absence, which is why this span is sometimes termed the cryogenian
What does the term Snowball refer to?
a situation in which the oceans are globally frozen over, except perhaps for limited and intermittent openwater oases
the neoproterozoic is the era extending from 1,000 million years ago (1,000 mya) to 540 million years ago (540 mya), a stretch of time essentially as long as the phanerozoic. until near the end of the neoproterozoic, however, much of the neoproterozoic show played out on the microbial stage and was recorded only dimly in the fossil record. the neoproterozoic is like a dark tunnel. the ancient microbial world enters the far end, endures the biogeochemical and climatic turbulence of the neoproterozoic, and comes out into the light of the metazoan-rich phanerozoic world on the other side. the middle of the neoproterozoic marks the return of glaciation to earth after a billion-year absence, which is why this span is sometimes termed the cryogenian. in two of these glaciations, there were continental ice sheets in low latitudes, and a plausible case can be made that the oceans were almost entirely frozen over. this state of affairs is known as a snowball earth and has sparked much intense inquiry. much discussion of the neoproterozoic has focused on the snowball earth question. however, biogeochemical proxies for the neoproterozoic show that there was a lot more going on at the time than just the charismatic snowball-type events. the nominal snowball events may indeed be just one of the more visible manifestations of the general biogeochemical turbulence of the neoproterozoic. the phanerozoic seems, by comparison, to be a rather quiescent place. is the biogeochemical sturm und drang of the neoproterozoic safely behind us? is it that the biogeochemical cycling associated with complex biota has somehow stabilized the earth system (at least up until technological life came on the scene)? or does the settling down of the earth system into a comfortable middle age have more to do with earth's long-term geological evolution than with the emergence of complex life forms? a better understanding of the neoproterozoic would put us in a position to approach such deep questions. in this review, we are principally concerned with the climate dynamics of the cryogenian and with aspects of the geological and biogeochemical record that have a bearing on climate. for a more comprehensive review of the geological record, the reader is referred to reviews by hoffman li (2009), fairchild kennedy (2007), and hoffman schrag (2002). the neoproterozoic glaciations provide the main indication of climate variability, but apart from that and the broad inferences that can be drawn from survival of various forms of marine life, there are no proxies to tell us how hot it may have been between glaciations. the biogeochemical picture, along with general background information relevant to climate simulations, is discussed in section 2. given the nature of the data, the prime targets for climate theorists dealing with the neoproterozoic have been the explanation of the onset and terminations of the major glaciations and the manner in which these are manifest in the sedimentary record. in this review, the term snowball refers to a situation in which the oceans are globally frozen over, except perhaps for limited and intermittent openwater oases; in the literature, such states are sometimes distinguished by the term hard snowball. states in which sea ice and active land ice sheets reach the tropics but in which substantial areas of open tropical ocean remain are sometimes termed soft snowballs or slushballs. these terms are inappropriate, however, because there is really no "slush" involved in these states. instead, we refer to them as waterbelt states. the basic physical concepts governing transitions into and out of a snowball or waterbelt state are introduced in section 3. the main issues include the following: the conditions for entry into a snowball or waterbelt state (section 4), the nature of the climate during a snowball state (section 5), the conditions for deglaciation from a snowball state (section 6), and the nature of the climate following deglaciation (section 7). we attempt to put these matters in context within the bigger picture of biogeochemical fluctuations within the neoproterozoic, particularly regarding
What bioclimate model overestimated the thermal toleracne of local populations of montane species?
this study found that european scale bioclimate models overestimated the thermal tolerance of local populations of montane species
Why did the problem of overestimation of thermal tolerance arise?
we propose that this problem arose through a bias against the cooler climates found in mountains due to the aggregation of climate data at coarse resolutions and, potentially, a disregard of the intraspecific adaptations of montane species to the local environment
Are previous studies estimatingthreat of climate change to montane species accurate?
these findings indicate that previous studies estimating the threat of climate change to montane species based on coarse bioclimate models may have been conservative
this study found that european scale bioclimate models overestimated the thermal tolerance of local populations of montane species, resulting in underestimation of the potential impacts of climate change relative to models trained at the local scale of a mountain range. we propose that this problem arose through a bias against the cooler climates found in mountains due to the aggregation of climate data at coarse resolutions and, potentially, a disregard of the intraspecific adaptations of montane species to the local environment. these findings indicate that previous studies estimating the threat of climate change to montane species based on coarse bioclimate models may have been conservative.
Who has been one of the leading critics of the UK goverment's target's mentality?
simon caulkin has been one of the leading critics of the uk government's target's mentality
What can we appreciate from this article?
the distorting effects of the woolly thinking associated with imposing common targets across diverse contexts and the ill-informed use of 'goal-oriented' thinking
simon caulkin has been one of the leading critics of the uk government's target's mentality. from this article it is easy to appreciate the distorting effects of the woolly thinking associated with imposing common targets across diverse contexts and the ill-informed use of 'goal-oriented' thinking. this example is an archetypical, though shameful, case of dropping all of the balls of concern to a systems practitio ner as juggler! it is in such situations where systemic inquiry can find a place - as an institutionalised form of practice - particularly as a replacement for, or comple ment to regulation, policy prescriptions (blueprints) and targets. as i outline in chapter 10 traditional policy instruments are, in a climate changing world, increas ingly blunt or totally inappropriate instruments because, once formulated, they generally: 1. fail to be institutionalised in an adaptive manner that is open to revision as the situation evolves 2. are easy to develop but much more difficult and expensive to monitor and police (i.e. the effectiveness of many regulations is often not known until after some form of breakdown in the situation where the regulations were designed to operate) 9
Why habitat amount data was variable and could not be improved ?
because of inconsistencies in the spatial scales reported among studies and missing data
How logistic-regession models estimte the impact of habitat cover?
it is possible that the logistic-regression models may have underestimated the impact of habitat cover as a predictor
Is your model perfect?
there is a slight lack of fit at the lower and upper quantiles of our model
an assumption of meta-analyses is that the studies examined have collected data in a sufficiently similar manner that they can be pooled to identify meaningful patterns. although habitat cover (proportion of the area covered by suitable habitat) was shown to have little importance in explaining habitat loss/fragmentation effects in our model, the resolution of the habitat amount data was variable and could not be improved, because of inconsistencies in the spatial scales reported among studies and missing data (appendix s1). therefore, it is possible that the logistic-regression models may have underestimated the impact of habitat cover as a predictor. despite this limitation, we believe that our results are valid and the lack of a habitat amount effect does not affect our conclusions about the climate effects, which is the main focus of the study. furthermore, there is a slight lack of fit at the lower and upper quantiles of our model (appendix s2). this is primarily
What model overcomes problems raised by the absolute temperature (T1) model?
the d t model
What model solves the enigma of adjustment to local microclimates across altitudes?
the d t model
How does The D T model solves the enigma of adjustment to local microclimates across altitudes?
by providing a mechanism which responds only to temperature differential, not local mean temperature
the d t model overcomes problems raised by the absolute temperature (t1) model. first, it provides better predictions and is more robust to the of additional data. second, the d t model solves the enigma of adjustment to local microclimates across altitudes, by providing a mechanism which responds only to temperature differential, not local mean temperature. third, it explains the rarity of consecutive high-seed events relative to consecutive warm years, because the second of two warm summers will usually have a low d t value and thus a small seed crop. for example, in data for chionochloa pallens flower crops, the second (1999) of two
What has been clear incthe review?
in the review, we were quite clear that, as weyant is right to emphasise, flexible policy (in terms of where and when emission reductions are carried out, and what techniques are used and on what ghgs) will be important in keeping costs down
What did we set out to answer?
we set out to answer the question "what could mitigation costs be if the world acts quickly and flexibly
Where did the estimates apparently origin from?
these estimates apparently originate from modelling studies that treated technical change unrealistically (by ignoring either the possibility of a backstop technology11 or possibilities to substitute away from high-emission technologies, so that the only option is to squeeze growth), or made pessimistic assumptions about the design of policy
gdp. weyant [citation] contends that the range is wider, up to 10% of gdp. however, we do not consider the high-end of this range to be credible, as these estimates apparently originate from modelling studies that treated technical change unrealistically (by ignoring either the possibility of a backstop technology11 or possibilities to substitute away from high-emission technologies, so that the only option is to squeeze growth), or made pessimistic assumptions about the design of policy. in the review, we were quite clear that, as weyant is right to emphasise, flexible policy (in terms of where and when emission reductions are carried out, and what techniques are used and on what ghgs) will be important in keeping costs down. we set out to answer the question "what could mitigation costs be if the world acts quickly and flexibly?" rather than "what will costs likely be if the world drags its feet, waking up with a start much later on?"
In the northeastern and upper Midwestern United States, who have been working together to build awareness of climate change issues and explore how climate change can be incorporated in planning and management?
in the northeastern and upper midwestern united states, the northern research station has been working with the eastern region and other institutions to build awareness of climate change issues and explore how climate change can be incorporated in planning and management
What could discussion about past weatheror climate-influenced events have improved the management response of?
discussion about the type of event and about what could have improved the man agement response may help focus the conversation with scientists on the types of information that would be helpful now and in the future (box 2
What may be the result of exploring past weatheror climate-influenced events?
exploring past weatheror climate-influenced events may result in a basis for some adaptation strategies in the future
development of adaptation options depends on retrieving information from over 20 years of climate change science and the experience and place-based knowledge of resource management staffs. both types of information must be brought into the discussion of adaptation. all personnel involved in the adaptation process need a fundamental, consistent understanding of the physical and biological phenomena affected by the changing climate. similarly, scientists must be aware of local conditions and concerns. methods for communicating climate change science differed among the case studies from 1-day science workshops to longer, focused short courses. these kinds of sessions are focused on education but have the additional benefit of confirming the commitment of local management units and line officers to prepare for climate change, as well as building the science-management partnership necessary to do so. these educational sessions may also set the stage for a focused dialogue on climate change adaptation. a broad focus on climate change and climate change effects, including reference to local conditions and concerns, ensures a consistent scientific foundation prior to the next steps in the process. bringing the experience and place-based knowledge of resource managers into this discussion of adaptation options is critical. managers have many years of experience, including experience with weather-related or climatically extreme events. exploring past weatheror climate-influenced events may result in a basis for some adaptation strategies in the future. managers can reflect on situations in which unusual weather-related conditions affected terrestrial or aquatic resources for which they were responsible. discussion about the type of event and about what could have improved the man agement response may help focus the conversation with scientists on the types of information that would be helpful now and in the future (box 2). climate change education -- preparing national forests for adaptation --incorporating climate concerns into land management benefits from active dialogue between scientists and land man agers, each providing the other with experience from their skills, knowledge, and perspectives. in the northeastern and upper midwestern united states, the northern research station has been working with the eastern region and other institutions to build awareness of climate change issues and explore how climate change can be incorporated in planning and management (swanston et al. 2011). ongoing climate change education in these areas is viewed as a sustained dialogue. it is intended to increase institutional capacity to understand the likely effects of climate change and
Deep water rice is harvested in what range of months?
this crop is harvested from october to december
Why is there only a academic distinction between late planted boro and early transplanted aus?
the distinction between late planted boro and early transplanted aus is academic since the same varieties may be used
Which crops are grown in the dry season?
crops grown are boro, wheat, potato, pulses and oilseeds
b. aman broadcast aman; a rice crop usually planted in march/april under dry land conditions, but in areas liable to deep flooding. also known as deep water rice. this crop is harvested from october to december. all varieties are highly sensitive to day length. t. aman transplanted aman; a rice crop usually planted in july/august, during the monsoon, in areas liable to a maximum flood depth of about 0.5m. this crop is harvested from november/ december. local varieties are sensitive to day length whereas modern varieties are insensitive or only slightly sensitive. b. aus broadcast aus; a rice crop planted in march/april under dry land conditions. matures on pre-monsoon showers, harvested in june/july, and is insensitive to day length. t. aus transplanted aus; a rice crop, transplanted in march/april, usually under irrigated conditions, and harvested june/july. the distinction between late planted boro and early transplanted aus is academic since the same varieties may be used. varieties are insensitive to day length. boro a rice crop planted under irrigation during the dry season from december to march and harvested in april to june. local boro varieties are more tolerant of cool temperatures and are usually planted early in areas which are subject to early flooding due to rise in river levels. improved varieties, less tolerant of cool conditions, are usually transplanted from february onwards. all varieties are insensitive to day length. kharif the wet season (typically march to october) characterized by monsoon rain and high temperatures. kharif 1 the first part of the kharif season (march to june). rainfall is variable and temperatures are high. the main crops grown are aus, summer vegetables and pulses. broadcast aman and jute are planted. kharif 2 the second part of the kharif season (july to october) characterized by heavy rain and floods. t. aman is the major crop grown during the season. harvesting of jute takes place. fruits and summer vegetables may be grown on high land. rabi the dry season (typically november to february) with low or minimal rainfall, high evapo-transpiration rates, low temperatures and clear skies with bright sunshine. crops grown are boro, wheat, potato, pulses and oilseeds. high yielding variety introduced varieties developed through formal breeding programmes, they have a higher yield potential than local varieties but require correspondingly high inputs of fertilizer and irrigation water to reach full yield potential. local varieties developed and used by farmers sometimes referred to as inbred varieties or local improved varieties (livs). net cultivable area total area which is undertaken for cultivation.
How can organizational learning be seen? It can be seen as a cycle
organisational learning can be seen as a cycle which begins with a stimulus
What assumption is there? That experience will continue to validate you.
throughout this process between the initial stimulus and the broad application of new routines there is an assumption that evidence from experience will continue to validate it
By what means does this happen? Give feedback
this happens through processes of feedback that continue to show that the adaptation is an effective way of responding to experienced situations
organisational learning can be seen as a cycle which begins with a stimulus leading to the generation of variation through experimentation and search, proceeds with a process of internal selection, articulation and codification, followed by the replication and enactment of new routines across the organisation, finally returning to the beginning of a new cycle of innovation by virtue of a new stimulus. throughout this process between the initial stimulus and the broad application of new routines there is an assumption that evidence from experience will continue to validate it. in the simplest case, a new product is successfully commercialised. this happens through processes of feedback that continue to show that the adaptation is an effective way of responding to experienced situations, and because it is perceived to be leading to performance benefits. a schematic of an organisational learning cycle is presented in figure 1. 140 learning to adapt
Which factor influences both the general viability of a region?
gregory v. jones department of geography, southern oregon university, 1250 siskiyou blvd, ashland, oregon 97520, u.s.a., gjones@sou.edu summary as part of the concept of terroir, climate is a factor that influences both the general viability of a region to ripen a specific variety of grapes and the resulting wine style
Which  narrow the climate zones for optimum quality place?
climate variability and change affect every form of agriculture and are seldom more evident than with the production of high quality wines where narrow climate zones for optimum quality place them particularly at risk
Explain short and longterm climate changes?
research has shown that both recent short and longterm climate changes have resulted in generally warmer and longer growing seasons with less frost risk in many of the world's best wine regions
gregory v. jones department of geography, southern oregon university, 1250 siskiyou blvd, ashland, oregon 97520, u.s.a., gjones@sou.edu summary as part of the concept of terroir, climate is a factor that influences both the general viability of a region to ripen a specific variety of grapes and the resulting wine style. climate variability and change affect every form of agriculture and are seldom more evident than with the production of high quality wines where narrow climate zones for optimum quality place them particularly at risk. while climates have changed dramatically during the history of the cultivation of grapes for wine, the changes in the recent past and those projected in the near future have received a great deal of attention for their potential impacts on today's wine industry. research has shown that both recent short and longterm climate changes have resulted in generally warmer and longer growing seasons with less frost risk in many of the world's best wine regions. while these changes have been related to greater production and quality, future climate projections indicate the potential for threshold issues in which too much warming will potentially alter traditional wine styles and/or varieties planted, and likely bring about spatial shifts in viticultural viability. summaire cet element du concept de terroir qu'est le climat determine la viabilite d'une region a permettre le murissement d'une variete definie de raisin ainsi que l'elaboration du style du vin qu'on en tire. la variabilite et le changement du climat affectent toute forme d'agriculture, mais les effets sont rarement plus evidents que sur la production de grands vins ou l'optimisation de la qualite necessite une viticulture en des zones climatiques aux conditions tres circonscrites, d'ou les risques. bien que les climats aient change dramatiquement dans l'histoire de la culture des vignes vinicoles, les changements climatiques recents ainsi que les changements projetes dans un avenir rapproche ont ete beaucoup etudies en fonction de leurs impacts sur l'actuelle industrie vinicole. les compte rendus des recherches montrent que les changements climatiques, tant a courts et qu'a longs termes, ont amene des saisons viticoles plus chaudes et plus longues comportant moins de risques de gel, et cela dans nombres des meilleures regions vinicoles du monde. bien que ces changements aient ete associes a une amelioration de la production et de la qualite, les projections climatiques montrent qu'il est possible qu'un seuil soit atteint, au-dela duquel ce rechauffement pourrait alterer le style les vins traditionnels et/ou les varietes utilisees, entrainant des changements spatiaux probables de la viabilite viticole. climate is a very complex, highly variable, and pervasive factor in our natural earthand human-based systems. from controlling vegetation patterns and geological weathering characteristics, to influencing water resources and agricultural productivity, climate is at the heart of the delicate equilibrium that exists on earth. climate is a wide-ranging factor in virtually all forms of agriculture, from influencing spatial variations of crop viability to largely determining yeartoyear yield variability; climate is an important issue in determining where and how crops are grown. climate-related impacts on agriculture are generally related to climate variability over the short term (i.e., intra-annual and inter-annual) and climate change over the long term (i.e., decades to centuries or longer). understanding such relationships is seldom more important than today, as variations and/or changes in climate can greatly impact the ability to produce a given crop. the climate component of terroir grapevines are some of the oldest cultivated plants and have been historically associated with mediterranean climates (e.g., italy). today, however, grapevines for wine production (note that all occurrences of grapes or grapevines refer to grapes for wine production, unless stated otherwise) are grown in many types of climates throughout the mid latitudes: mediterranean, marine west coast (e.g., oregon), humid subtropical (e.g., eastern australia), and semi-arid continental climates (e.g., eastern washington state) (fig. 1). the climates of these regions are an integral part of the notion of terroir, the french concept in which a complex interplay of physical factors (wilson, 1998; haynes, 1999; meinert and busacca, 2000) and cultural influences (vaudour, 2000) interact to define the wine styles and quality that come from any site or region. climate is
\What adverse impacts of climate change will not only affect Dhaka directly but indirectly?
fl oods, riverbank erosion and cyclones
The southeastern part of Dhaka is protected by what?
the southeastern part of the megacity is protected by the dhaka-nayrayangong-demra fl ood protection embankment
What should incorporate aspects of climate change for unbuilt parts of Dhaka and should include all necessary measures?
thus, spatial planning for unbuilt areas of dhaka should incorporate aspects of climate change and should include all necessary measures
another important issue concerns the adverse impacts of climate change, which will not only affect dhaka directly but will also have indirect effects in other parts of the country, particularly as a result of fl oods, riverbank erosion and cyclones. if these destroy or damage people's livelihoods, it is likely that rural-urban migration will increase and that more people will migrate to dhaka. to protect dhaka from river fl oods, a fl ood protection embankment has been constructed on the western side and a comparable embankment is under consideration for the eastern side. the southeastern part of the megacity is protected by the dhaka-nayrayangong-demra fl ood protection embankment. recent erratic rainfall brought unusual urban fl ooding as a result of drainage congestion and inadequate facilities for pumping water from inside the embankment. this raises the question: are the existing fl ood management measures adequate to address future fl ooding, which is anticipated to be more frequent and intense? thus, spatial planning for unbuilt areas of dhaka should incorporate aspects of climate change and should include all necessary measures. it is also necessary to make changes to the design of the embankment/road and allow for adequate pumping systems to drain rainwater from the city - and overall, to adapt to allow dhaka to cope with the changes in intensity and pattern of rainfall under a warmer climate. references
How are future developments view from?
future developments are viewed from the perspective of the restructuring agricultural practices in europe
Which productions crops are likely to increase?
the production of crops like oilseed rape and winter cereals in denmark, eastern germany and poland are likely to increase
What have proven to be highly opportunistic in the past?
in the past the birds have proven to be highly opportunistic and they will be able adapt to these recent changes as well
future developments are viewed from the perspective of the restructuring agricultural practices in europe. this will lead to a decline in n use in western countries and hence will probably constrain population growth of the smallest avian herbivores. the enlarged eu with 10 new member states in 2004 will cause major changes in crop production. for example, poland now produces one quarter of the total potato production in the eu. large-scale farming practices, such as the production of crops like oilseed rape and winter cereals in denmark, eastern germany and poland are likely to increase. larger geese and swans already feed on these crops. in other countries of the eu it may become less profitable for european farmers to grow certain crops. moreover, genetic engineering may make these species unpalatable, which has occurred already in flevoland in the netherlands in the early 1990s when changes in fatty acid composition led to the abandonment of these crops by geese and swans (m. r. van eerden m. zijlstra, unpublished results; mckay parrott, 2002). wetland restoration and the policy of leaving agricultural land for rough grazing are likely to lead to a downward trend in staging and wintering populations of birds in the netherlands in the absence of high-quality grass leaves. existing coastal wetland vegetation, such as bulbils, tubers, stolons are already largely eaten so alternative food sources are scarce (van eerden, 1997). however, in the past the birds have proven to be highly opportunistic and they will be able adapt to these recent changes as well.
What does your review suggest?
our review suggests distinct regimes of atmospheric circulation change in the tropics versus the midlatitudes, calling for different approaches
What is tightly coupled with the SST change pattern in both multimodal mean projection and intermodal variability?
precipitation and atmospheric circulation are tightly coupled with the sst change pattern in both the multimodel mean projection and intermodel variability
What is agreement among models an indicator of?
agreement among models is an indicator of robust change
our review suggests distinct regimes of atmospheric circulation change in the tropics versus the midlatitudes, calling for different approaches. in the tropics, internal variability on decadal timescales and longer is relatively small in comparison with the forced signal on the centennial horizon, and models now agree on some aspects of the pattern of rainfall change that are projected to emerge by the end of this century (for example, an increase in the equatorial pacific and atlantic, and a decrease in the southeastern tropical oceans). precipitation and atmospheric circulation are tightly coupled with the sst change pattern in both the multimodel mean projection and intermodel variability. elucidating this coupling, and developing observational constraints, can narrow uncertainties of regional projections in the tropics. an analogue may be the historical development of enso prediction, where theory initially explained how coupled modes emerge from ocean-atmosphere feedback, ultimately laying the foundation for seasonal climate prediction. the challenge is to extend this success to radiatively forced problems, and to design observing systems that monitor key processes associated with ongoing climate change. in the midlatitudes, by contrast, coupling between large-scale atmospheric circulation and local ssts is weak. internal variability plays a much larger role in generating differences among regionalscale projections. nevertheless, the lack of a robust circulation response in midlatitudes in models does not preclude potential shifts in storm tracks or changes in blocking frequency that models cannot (yet) represent. random internal variability and the nonlinear nature of the midlatitude circulation render regional climate projections inherently probabilistic. we recommend a coordinated multimodel set of large initialcondition ensembles to further regional climate change research (box 1). first, such a set of experiments would quantify probabilities of changes in means and extremes across models, including not only structural uncertainty but also irreducible uncertainty due to internal variability. quantification of changes in risks is necessary for insurance, and for infrastructure planning. to quantify probability distributions and occurrence of extremes, we need research into dynamical processes governing changes in higher-order moments such as variance and skewness. second, the set of experiments would enable isolation of uncertainties due to internal variability from those due to model structure. large ensembles also open new possibilities for studying radiatively forced changes in extratropical atmospheric circulation. computing advances have benefited climate modelling through enhanced complexity and increased resolution. a threshold has recently been crossed: at 50-km resolution, atmospheric models demonstrate marked skill in simulating tc statistics. this opens up new opportunities for studying climate change effects on tc variability, much as happened in the 1970s to 1980s, when explicit simulations of extratropical cyclones vastly improved weather forecasts. high-resolution large-ensemble simulations could greatly advance our understanding of internal variability and forced change in tc metrics and processes, especially track density, landfall statistics and ocean feedback. higher resolution also improves simulation of blocking events, a phenomenon linked to extreme weather in the extratropics. robust precipitation changes are projected over land: increases at high latitudes and in the asian monsoon result from enhanced atmospheric moisture content, whereas decreases in the subtropics arise from hadley cell expansion. the ocean warming pattern also changes atmospheric circulation over the sahel and amazon, although the robustness of these changes remains to be tested. in addition to such non-local atmospheric changes, improved understanding of land surface processes is key to more credible projections of human impacts58,88. for example, soil moisture and near-surface relative humidity are projected to decrease globally89, probably exacerbating drought when it does occur, and potentially increasing the frequency and intensity of heat waves. more realistic simulation of snow albedo feedback and snow processes would also reduce uncertainty surrounding continental warming, runoff timing and soil moisture at high latitudes90. agreement among models is an indicator of robust change, but should be viewed in the context of model biases and weak observational constraints on forced regional response. evaluating the impact of common biases and ultimately reducing them is a grand challenge. the daily verification cycle has enabled weather forecasts to improve steadily by exposing model errors and observational needs. similarly, seasonal prediction91 and attribution studies of extreme climate events92 can improve physical understanding and build model confidence. in this context, pacemaker experiments -- that is, experiments with partial coupling that prescribes observed sst or wind evolution in tropical oceans19,93,94 -- are useful to identify key drivers of regional change. further innovations in experimental design are necessary to expose model problems. for example, fluxadjusted models can be run in parallel with freely evolving models to evaluate effects of model biases on regional projections. regional climate projections are often taken as synonymous with downscaling global scenarios. the misconception is that with enhanced resolution, regional models will automatically solve the problem of producing regional climate projections. regional climate models require lateral boundary conditions, which are subject to large uncertainties in atmospheric circulation change. without carefully considering the uncertainty in lateral boundary conditions and model biases, downscaling global model projections adds essentially meaningless spatial detail1. regional models may be useful to understand physical processes in areas of complex coastlines and orography, and may provide useful climate change impact information on the kilometre scales relevant to climate adaptation planning95. we suggest, however, that the current priority is to understand and reduce gcm uncertainties on regional scales (>100 km), which often dictate changes on finer scales. to achieve reliable regional climate projections, it is essential to understand the underlying physics, reduce model biases and adequately account for internal variability.
Who are the collaborators on the project?
hilary smithers, helen stanley and judith stunell at the environment agency
Who provided historic rainfall series?
the british atmospheric data centre
Who provides the funding for the project?
the eu environment and sustainable development programme
acknowledgements we would like to thank hilary smithers, helen stanley and judith stunell at the environment agency for their collaboration on this project and the supply of historic reservoir and river flow sequences. historic rainfall series were obtained from the british atmospheric data centre. the hadrm3h data has been supplied by the climate impacts link project (defra contract epg 1/1/154) on behalf of the hadley centre and u.k. meteorological office. this work is part of the swurve (sustainable water: uncertainty, risk and vulnerability estimation in europe) project, funded under the eu environment and sustainable development programme, grant number evk1-2000-00075. we would also like to thank the three anonymous reviewers whose comments helped to greatly improve the final version of this paper.
In what situation cannot capital operate?
capital cannot operate under conditions that require the reinvestment of capital into the maintenance of nature
What profit gives capitalism an immediate pulse?
short-term profits provide the immediate pulse of capitalism
Capital is dictated by what?
capital is dictated by the competition for the accumulation of wealth
there is no drive to maintain the social metabolism in relation to the natural metabolism (a measure of sustainability) under capital. capital cannot operate under conditions that require the reinvestment of capital into the maintenance of nature. short-term profits provide the immediate pulse of capitalism. capital is dictated by the competition for the accumulation of wealth.88money serves as a universal measure and means for international trade and aids capital in its international expansion, as it incorporates more people and nature into the global system. the monetary process comes to dominate the organization of the material processes of production. in this, capitalism successfully conquers the earth (including the atmosphere), taking its destructive field of operation to the planetary level. the exploitation of nature is universalized, increasingly bringing all of nature within the sphere of the economy, subjecting it to the rationality of profitability.89capital is the systematic force organizing social production and driving industrialism to intensify the exploitation of nature. given the logic of capital and its basic operations, the rift in the carbon cycle and global climate change are intrinsically tied to capitalism. in fact, the continued existence of capitalism guarantees the continuation of these events. "short of human extinction, there is no sense in which capitalism can be relied
How many years can be covered by a CGE approach to representing the economy?
because we are applying a detailed representation of the economy by a cge approach, we are able on the one hand to reproduce detailed regional and sectoral impacts and on the other hand only cover (from the climatic perspective) a relatively short time horizon of 50 years
How are costs and benefits of climate change predominantly assessed?
costs and benefits of climate change are predominantly assessed by integrated assessment models (iam) incorporating physical relations of climate change and economic effects of damage functions
How are integrated assessment models characterized?
integrated assessment models are characterized by combining multidisciplinary approaches to thoroughly evaluate climate change impacts
because we are applying a detailed representation of the economy by a cge approach, we are able on the one hand to reproduce detailed regional and sectoral impacts and on the other hand only cover (from the climatic perspective) a relatively short time horizon of 50 years. costs and benefits of climate change are predominantly assessed by integrated assessment models (iam) incorporating physical relations of climate change and economic effects of damage functions. integrated assessment models are characterized by combining multidisciplinary approaches to thoroughly evaluate climate change impacts. however, as previously described, the economic system is based on a highly aggregated intertemporal optimization framework that neither covers detailed regional and sectoral interrelations, nor involves international trade effects. examples for such iam approaches are merge rice or dice ceta or fund edmonds gives an overview of the latest modeling approaches; previous overviews can be found in dowlatabadi [24-26]. 2.2. the role of uncertainty uncertainty about the future climate is the dominant cause of uncertainty about the character and significance of impacts. integrated assessment models cover different uncertainties resulting from data inconsistencies and gaps, unknown functional relationships or errors in the structure of a model, and unknown or incorrect assumptions about important parameter values. uncertainty about the correct determination of the model, data and key parameter distorts the understanding of the social, economic and ecologic impacts of climate change. uncertainties could justify the postponement of significant mitigation efforts. however, uncertainty also includes the risk of significant climate changes inducing considerable impacts. because the climate change issue is a long-term, global, non-linear and therefore very complex issue, climatic, ecological and economic uncertainties become evident. economic impacts assessment of climate change is based on uncertainties resulting from the above described ecological and climatic uncertainties. uncertainties about irreversibilities of climate change, intergenerational effects, market and agents behavior and expectations make a prediction and impact assessment highly speculative.
Which one is affected by ecosystem?
climate of the magnitude projected by most global climate models would impact our water resources, and subsequently affect food supply, health, industry, transportation and ecosystem sustainability
Which one is increases by stress?
problems are most likely to arise where the resource is already under stress, because that stress would be exacerbated by changes in supply or demand associated with climate change
Which strategies is more important sustainable adaptation strategies?
involvement of physical and social scientists, water managers and other stakeholders is critical to the development of appropriate and sustainable adaptation strategies
future changes in climate of the magnitude projected by most global climate models would impact our water resources, and subsequently affect food supply, health, industry, transportation and ecosystem sustainability. problems are most likely to arise where the resource is already under stress, because that stress would be exacerbated by changes in supply or demand associated with climate change. particular emphasis needs to be placed on the impacts of extreme events (drought and flooding), which are projected to become more frequent and of greater magnitude in many parts of the country. these extreme events would place stress on existing infrastructure and institutions, with potentially major economic, social and environmental consequences. a relatively high degree of uncertainty will likely always exist regarding projections of climate and hydrological change at the local management scale. focus must therefore be placed on climate change in the context of risk management and vulnerability assessment. the complex interactions between the numerous factors that influence water supply and demand, as well as the many activities dependent upon water resources, highlight the need for integrative studies that look at both the environmental and human controls on water. involvement of physical and social scientists, water managers and other stakeholders is critical to the development of appropriate and sustainable adaptation strategies.
What does inclusion of a representation of the subgridscale ITD results in?
larger ice growth rates and thicker sea ice
And what do these larger growth rates represent?
a higher heat loss from the ocean-ice column to the atmosphere, resulting in warmer surface conditions
we present the sea ice simulation of the ccsm3 t42-gx1 and t85-gx1 control simulations and examine the influence of the parameterized sea ice thickness distribution (itd) on polar climate conditions. this includes an analysis of the change in mean climate conditions and simulated sea ice feedbacks when an itd is included. we find that including a representation of the subgridscale itd results in larger ice growth rates and thicker sea ice. these larger growth rates represent a higher heat loss from the ocean-ice column to the atmosphere, resulting in warmer surface conditions. ocean circulation, most notably in the southern hemisphere is also modified by the itd because of the influence of enhanced high latitude ice formation on the ocean buoyancy flux and resulting deep water formation. changes in atmospheric circulation also result, again most notably in the southern hemisphere. there are indications that the itd also modifies simulated sea ice related feedbacks. in regions of similar ice thickness, the surface albedo changes at 2xco2 conditions are larger when an itd is included, suggesting an enhanced surface albedo feedback. the presence of an itd also modifies the ice thickness-ice strength relationship and the ice thickness-ice growth rate relationship, both of which represent negative feedbacks on ice thickness. the net influence of the itd on polar climate sensitivity and variability results from the interaction of these and other complex feedback processes.
Define science-management relationship?
a science-management relationship is critical for both establishing the scientific basis for proposed adaptation options and bringing to the table the management expertise to develop those options (littell et al. 2011
How it become initially evolved?
this partnership typically evolves from initial discussions between research scientists and federal resource managers, followed by an agreement to work together
a science-management relationship is critical for both establishing the scientific basis for proposed adaptation options and bringing to the table the management expertise to develop those options (littell et al. 2011). this partnership typically evolves from initial discussions between research scientists and federal resource managers, followed by an agreement to work together. these discussions about climate change and adaptation identify the goals of the adaptation project and the process to reach those goals. commitment to work together is critical, because a year or more may be needed to complete workshops, individual dialogues, and writing. the science-management partnership must have good communication, a consensus on specific objectives, an established schedule, and a clearly identified written product to document the results. a commitment by a national forest or other organization to the process of adaptation will need to endure for decades, because of the long-term nature of climate change effects. starting the conversation -- a strong collaborative relationship between scientists and resource managers is the foundation for a successful adaptation effort on federal lands (vogel et al. 2007). the approaches that we have used in case studies were tailored to specific resource conditions, resource staff capacity and priorities, and general readiness of units to discuss climate change and adaptation. the legacy of past management often sets the stage for current resource concerns, and national forests are often at different stages of the forest planning process or other planning processes such as travel management. in addition, availability of place-based research differs across national forests and adjacent lands. differences among national forests in these conditions can result in different approaches for internal and external engagement regarding climate change issues. an adaptation case study in washington focused on olympic national forest and olympic national park (halofsky et al. 2011). forest service and national park service resource managers on these adjacent management units were accustomed to working together on issues of common interest, so they could quickly engage with each other, as well as with the topic of climate change. the availability of scientific expertise on climate change science at the university of washington climate impacts group provided additional credibility to the scientific component of the case study. resource managers were initially concerned about the time required for the adaptation process, including the eight planned workshops. with this concern in mind, all sessions were designed to efficiently communicate and elicit information in deference to the amount of time managers had available.
How does Connell describe very small islands ?
for him, the very small islands were spaces of intrinsic scarcity, where a state of modernity can never be realised because they provide only for subsistence
Explain spaces of climate change according to Connell.
when sea level rise was identified as a risk for tuvalu, conceptions of the islands as fundamentally impoverished and dependent became the basis of their meaning as spaces of climate change in connell's accounts
Which newspaper entitled Connell as an expert source?
in a newspaper report entitled scientists warn of islands' peril which appeared in 1988, connell is cited as an expert source
connell's characterisation of tuvalu presented the islands as poor in natural resources and consequently as offering few opportunities for development. for him, the very small islands were spaces of intrinsic scarcity, where a state of modernity can never be realised because they provide only for subsistence. in thinking of islands as spaces fundamentally outside modernity, connell is able to argue that dependence on aid connections outside is preordained. this view parallels closely representations that hau'ofa (1993) questions and seeks to change. when sea level rise was identified as a risk for tuvalu, conceptions of the islands as fundamentally impoverished and dependent became the basis of their meaning as spaces of climate change in connell's accounts. in a newspaper report entitled scientists warn of islands' peril which appeared in 1988, connell is cited as an expert source. his representation of tuvalu is cited by the journalist, in terms of smallness and weakness:
What was done to build a predictive model on the impacts of climate change and land use change on macroinvertebrate and fish richness?
to build a predictive model for the impacts of climate and landuse change on macroinvertebrate and fish richness, the conceptual model was converted into a bbn using netica software (norsys software corporation 2008
What does the BBN consist of?
the bbn consists of independent and dependent variables (nodes), and the links (arrows) represent how the variables are related
What underlies each dependent variable?
underlying each dependent variable is a conditional probability table (cpt) that specifies the probability of each state conditional on other variables (marcot 2006
to build a predictive model for the impacts of climate and landuse change on macroinvertebrate and fish richness, the conceptual model was converted into a bbn using netica software (norsys software corporation 2008). the bbn consists of independent and dependent variables (nodes), and the links (arrows) represent how the variables are related. underlying each dependent variable is a conditional probability table (cpt) that specifies the probability of each state conditional on other variables (marcot 2006). a bbn framework was chosen to model this system because of its ability to model interactions within the cpts, and integrate empirical data with expert knowledge (martin et al. 2012).
What is the attitudes of people towards Nanotechnology ?
some recent studies of public attitudes towards nanotechnology have suggested that people with opposing views of science and technology tend to polarize the more they know about the risks and benefits of nanotechnology
What is nanotechnology used for today?
what the impacts of a particular new program of technological innovation will be, but whether that program is desirable in the first place
upstream engagement with the public may also simply lead to neither acceptance nor rejection. some recent studies of public attitudes towards nanotechnology have suggested that people with opposing views of science and technology tend to polarize the more they know about the risks and benefits of nanotechnology.60 different approaches to geoengineering may also raise different social and ethical issues--the question of international consent is arguably less pressing for localised sequestration methods than it is for the use of stratospheric aerosols.61 but whatever the outcome of involving the public in a discourse about the questions that geoengineering raises, beginning this process at the earliest possible stage seems essential. genuinely upstream research and engagement asks not only what the impacts of a particular new program of technological innovation will be, but whether that program is desirable in the first place.
To accommodate the increased heat requirement, which way did the ITCZ shift to allow for greater heat transport across the equator?
to accommodate the increased heat requirement, the itcz shifts southward to allow for greater heat transport across the equator
What happened once the southward ITCZ shift occurred?
accompanying this southward itcz shift, the northeast trade winds strengthen and precipitation patterns throughout the tropical atlantic are altered
this study analyzes a three-member ensemble of experiments, in which 0.1 sv of freshwater was applied to the north atlantic for 100 years in order to address the potential for large freshwater inputs in the north atlantic to drive abrupt climate change. the model used is the gfdl r30 coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model. we focus in particular on the effects of this forcing on the tropical atlantic region, which has been studied extensively by paleoclimatologists. in response to the freshwater forcing, north atlantic meridional overturning circulation is reduced to roughly 40% by the end of the 100 year freshwater pulse. consequently, the north atlantic region cools by up to 8  c. the extreme cooling of the north atlantic increases the pole-to-equator temperature gradient and requires more heat be provided to the high latitude atlantic from the tropical atlantic. to accommodate the increased heat requirement, the itcz shifts southward to allow for greater heat transport across the equator. accompanying this southward itcz shift, the northeast trade winds strengthen and precipitation patterns throughout the tropical atlantic are altered. specifically, precipitation in northeast brazil increases, and precipitation in africa decreases slightly. in addition, we find that surface air temperatures warm over the tropical atlantic and over africa, but cool over northern south america. sea-surface temperatures in the tropical atlantic warm slightly with larger warm anomalies developing in the thermocline. these responses are robust for each member of the ensemble, and have now been identified by a number of freshwater forcing studies using coupled oagcms. the model responses to freshwater forcing are generally smaller in magnitude, but have the same direction, as paleoclimate data from the younger dryas suggest. in certain cases, however, the model responses and the paleoclimate data directly contradict one another. discrepancies between the model simulations and the paleoclimate data could be due to a number of factors, including inaccuracies in the freshwater forcing, inappropriate boundary conditions, and uncertainties in the interpretation of the paleoclimate data. despite these discrepancies, it is clear from our results that abrupt climate changes in the high latitude north atlantic have the potential to significantly impact tropical climate. this warrants further model experimentation into the role of freshwater forcing in driving climate change.
What method was developed? A rigorous and transparent semi-quantitative method...
a rigorous and transparent semi-quantitative method was devised to select a representative icon suite
Based on the 'burning embers' diagram of the IPCC (figure SPM-2; McCarthy et al., 2001), how many icons did the trajectories of the icons trace? 6 criteria
based on the ipcc 'burning embers' diagram (figure spm-2; mccarthy et al., 2001), icon trajectories were plotted against six criteria
What was Norfolk Broads2? it was a local icon
the norfolk broads2was a local icon, ranking highly on both the pragmatic and intangible lines of reasoning
intangible reasoning (deeper, emotional or spiritual understandings that cannot necessarily be measured physically). a rigorous and transparent semi-quantitative method was devised to select a representative icon suite. based on the ipcc 'burning embers' diagram (figure spm-2; mccarthy et al., 2001), icon trajectories were plotted against six criteria. these were the three themes in reasoning as described above, plus three practically based criteria: the ease of modelling the climate impacts on the icon, the sensitivity of the icon to climate impacts to 2050 (discussed in section 2.2 ), and the frequency of icon selection by participants. thus three non-expert icons were selected to take forward into stage two. the norfolk broads2was a local icon, ranking highly on both the pragmatic and intangible lines of reasoning. london represented an icon that participants chose with mainly pragmatic reasonings. lastly, polar bears were chosen as distant icons that were selected by participants entirely on intangible reasoning. for comparison, three expert icons were also selected. these were extracted from the salient dimensions of biogeophysical changes in climate presented at the avoiding dangerous climate change scientific conference in exeter, 2005; and represent typical framings of climate change from an 'expert' discourse. the expert icons were the west antarctic ice sheet (wais), ocean acidification and the thermohaline circulation (thc). 2.2. stage two in order to minimise the information to be shown to the participants in stage three, each icon was investigated under a set of constraints for both timescale and emissions scenario. these constraints were carefully considered from both a scientific and a social scientific viewpoint:
Under these circumstances, what happens when you bombard citizens with more information?
under these circumstances, bombarding citizens with more information ("97% of scientists agree") doesn't diminish polarization but instead aggravates it by amplifying the association between competing identities and competing positions on climate change
What needs to be changed?
what needs to be changed are the circumstances that make recognizing valid scientific information hostile to the identities of reasoning citizens
What does Buckland (2014) say?
science communicators also have, in the very example of science educators, the benefit of an inspiring model of how an allied knowledge-propagation profession uses science to pursue this critical mission (cf. buckland, 2014
under these circumstances, bombarding citizens with more information ("97% of scientists agree") doesn't diminish polarization but instead aggravates it by amplifying the association between competing identities and competing positions on climate change. what needs to be changed are the circumstances that make recognizing valid scientific information hostile to the identities of reasoning citizens. we need a device that will perform in the world the disentanglement of identity and knowledge that is achieved when the clause "according to the theory of evolution," or "climate scientists believe," is appended to science-comprehension assessment items. is this possible? sure: just ask a good high school teacher to show you how. as discussed, the same tension between knowing what's known to science and being who one is attends the communication of evolutionary science. but that conflict does not prevent reasoning persons from learning this wondrous body of knowledge. empirical study shows that good instructors can impart genuine comprehension of the modern synthesis in a high school classroom filled with culturally diverse students. but doing so requires them to avoid making the profession of "belief in" evolution the object of their lessons. instead they must show "how scientists compare alternative hypotheses, their predicated consequences, and the evidence to arrive at belief," thereby stimulating the same "important reasoning pattern"--the one essential to comprehending valid science--in students (lawson worsnop, 2006, p. 165). it would be glib to say "that's all communicators have to do" to dispel polarization over climate science. it is what they have to do. but how to do this is far from obvious. indeed, it is far from obvious how high school teachers will succeed in disentangling knowledge from identity in teaching climate science but what they have themselves learned from teaching evolution successfully makes them confident both that this is the end to be attained and that attaining it is possible. science educators also enjoy an evidence-based culture in which problems of this type are empirically investigated and in which the results of such investigation are used appropriately and not ignored. because science communication doesn't yet have the benefit of such a culture (kahan, 2014b), science communicators are unlikely to figure out how to disentangle apprehension of climate science from cultural identity as quickly in the realm of politics as educators are likely to do it the classroom. but the success of science educators in teaching evolution furnishes science communicators the same reason to believe that such disentanglement is possible and shows them the target they should be aiming at. science communicators also have, in the very example of science educators, the benefit of an inspiring model of how an allied knowledge-propagation profession uses science to pursue this critical mission (cf. buckland, 2014).
what type of energy does not lead to global warming?
make it run on renewable clean energies that do not lead to global warming
what type of buildings are widely recognized?
the importance of moving away from a dependence on fully, inefficiently, poorly controlled, airconditioned buildings has been widely recognized
where the delivered energy can be stored?
make the delivered energy used in a building last longer by storing it in the thermal mass of the building
improve the performance of the walls, roof and floors of the building to minimize heating and cooling loads and discomfort. <s121>* make it run on renewable clean energies that do not lead to global warming. <s121>* make the controls more intelligent, so that they are not just set on one indoor temperature for the whole year (as happens in many systems) but can track outdoor temperatures and turn themselves off when unneeded, so saving up to 50 - 80% of their running costs. <s121>* make the delivered energy used in a building last longer by storing it in the thermal mass of the building. <s121>* zone the building so that areas of more extreme climate cannot be used during the hottest and coldest times of the year. buffer zones may be built on the top floors (rising heat), westfacing walls (the hottest sun) or walls facing the coldest winds. the importance of moving away from a dependence on fully, inefficiently, poorly controlled, airconditioned buildings has been widely recognized. there have been experiments in different countries with methods of changing the traditional approach to air conditioning a building - with varying success:
Explain the comparison of  optimal climate ?
we have compared optimal climate policy in the short run under three different decision-making frameworks: cost-effectiveness with temperature ceiling objectives, costbenefit analysis with pure preference for current climate regime and full cost-benefit approach with monetized evaluations of impacts
Define Five key lessons?
five key lessons emerge from this analysis. (a) given the cascade of uncertainty from emissions to damages, the difference between various decision-making frameworks appears to matter less than the difference between stochastic and non stochastic approach
Mention about stochastic approach?
in a stochastic approach, it is not necessary to assume catastrophic ultimate impacts to conclude to the optimality of early ghgs abatements. singularities in the damage curves are sufficient mainly because they increase the role of the uncertainty on climate sensitivity. in a stochastic framework, with uncertainty about the shape of the damage curve, the choice of the optimal strategy is dominated by the likelihood of occurrence of function with singularities
in this paper, we have compared optimal climate policy in the short run under three different decision-making frameworks: cost-effectiveness with temperature ceiling objectives, costbenefit analysis with pure preference for current climate regime and full cost-benefit approach with monetized evaluations of impacts. five key lessons emerge from this analysis. (a) given the cascade of uncertainty from emissions to damages, the difference between various decision-making frameworks appears to matter less than the difference between stochastic and non stochastic approach. (b) in a stochastic approach, it is not necessary to assume catastrophic ultimate impacts to conclude to the optimality of early ghgs abatements. singularities in the damage curves are sufficient mainly because they increase the role of the uncertainty on climate sensitivity. in a stochastic framework, with uncertainty about the shape of the damage curve, the choice of the optimal strategy is dominated by the likelihood of occurrence of function with singularities. (c) in addition to the shape of damage curves, the optimal timing of emissions abatement is very sensitive to the way the carbon cycle, the climate sensitivity and baseline emissions over the first decades are calibrated and their intrinsic uncertainty considered. (d) a window of opportunity exists in all decision-making frameworks, cost-benefit analysis with smooth damage curves excepted. the value of information is low in the first periods but increases drastically after 2020 to 2040. this time-horizon has to be compared with the fifty 20 20 years necessary to change energy systems, and to the fact that, according to the climate models, clear signals may not emerge from the noise of climate variability before 2050. (e) the of a pure preference for current climate allows for an overshoot of desired temperature (or concentration) targets without lowering the first period effort because it counterbalances the influence of discounting, all the more so as the environment is treated as a superior good. the core difficulties remain: a) the revelation of the pure preference for stability (including its volatility due to the media life cycles), b) the evaluation of the interplay between the various influences of climate change on the economy. among these interplays we will insist, as an invitation to further thoughts, on the role of the time derivatives and of the geographical distribution of damages. one major source of singularity in damage curves comes indeed from the joint effect of uncertainty and the inertia of human systems: a two percent of gdp loss may either represent a benign shock when spread over a century or on the contrary when concentrated on five years (this is the cost of ww1 for france). another related source of singularity is the propagation effect (climate refugees for example), in case of uncompensated shocks at a local level. coping with these difficulties will confront the methodological difficulties of incorporating intrinsically controversial information at various spatial scales, including from 'grass-root' case studies, into an integrated modeling framework. the increase of the size of the models to be mobilized will make all the more necessary the development of compact models of the sort used in this paper. both mathematically controllable and flexible enough, they are an appropriate communication tool between scientific disciplines and between science and stakeholders in a process of public decision-making under scientific controversy.
In what year was a detailed analysis of the intellectual property dimensions development of Golden Rice documented that roughly 70 patents and patent applications were implicated in the development of Golden Rice
2000, a detailed analysis of the intellectual property dimensions to the development of golden rice documented that roughly 70 patents and patent applications were implicated in the development of golden rice
Did poor countries have patent restrictions on Golden Rice?
many poor countries had no patent restrictions on golden rice at all
Was there overlap between the target clientele of poor farmers to the target clientele of commercial patent holders?
there was essentially no overlap between the target clientele of golden rice (poor farmers) and the target clientele of the commercial patent holders
that the link is more subtle does not imply that ip issues do not matter in agricultural technology transfer. rather, ip constraints are often less direct in agriculture than in health. patented research tools or protected varieties and breeding lines technically constrain upstream as well as downstream research, but associated problems have tended to emerge only late in the process. the development of golden rice and the complexity of ownership and control of the technology clearly showcased these concerns. in 2000, a detailed analysis of the intellectual property dimensions to the development of golden rice documented that roughly 70 patents and patent applications were implicated in the development of golden rice (kryder et al., 2000). although a patent 'thicket' of this size could be difficult or impossible to navigate in order to get 'freedom to operate' (heller and eisenberg, 1998), it ultimately did not pose serious problems because golden rice was intended to be distributed to relatively poor farmers in poor countries. this intended use facilitated the negotiations with patent holders in two ways. first, many of the 70 patents that were implicated in the technology were not effective in poor countries. indeed, many poor countries had no patent restrictions on golden rice at all because the inventors had not sought patent protection in small poor countries (and as a matter of practice often do not). second, there was essentially no overlap between the target clientele of golden rice (poor farmers) and the target clientele of the commercial patent holders. this created substantial scope for humanitarian use negotiations, which ultimately defined the humanitarian use market as those farmers in selected developing countries earning less than $10,000 per year from farming (see lybbert, 2002 for discussion of humanitarian use licensing).5
How are the  numerical experiments analyzed ?
the numerical experiments are analyzed with the focus on the effects on temperature and chemical composition in the mesopause region
What does the  results speak on the  mesopause region ?
results include a temperature response to the solar cycle by 2 to 10 k in the mesopause region with the largest values occurring slightly above the summer mesopause. ozone in the secondary maximum increases by up to 20% for solar maximum conditions. changes in winds are in general small. in the case of a doubling of carbon dioxide the simulation indicates a cooling of the atmosphere everywhere above the tropopause but by the smallest values around the mesopause. it is shown that the temperature response up to the mesopause is strongly influenced by changes in dynamics. during northern hemisphere summer, dynamical processes alone would lead to an almost global warming of up to 3 k in the uppermost mesosphere
this paper introduces the three-dimensional hamburg model of the neutral and ionized atmosphere (hammonia) that treats atmospheric dynamics, radiation and chemistry interactively for the height range from the earth's surface to the thermosphere (approximately 250 km). it is based on the latest version of the echam atmospheric general circulation model of the max planck institute for meteorology in hamburg, which is extended to include important radiative and dynamical processes of the upper atmosphere and coupled to a chemistry module containing 48 compounds. the model is applied to study the effects of natural and anthropogenic climate forcing on the atmosphere, represented on the one hand by the 11-year solar cycle and on the other hand by a doubling of the present-day concentration of carbon dioxide. the numerical experiments are analyzed with the focus on the effects on temperature and chemical composition in the mesopause region. results include a temperature response to the solar cycle by 2 to 10 k in the mesopause region with the largest values occurring slightly above the summer mesopause. ozone in the secondary maximum increases by up to 20% for solar maximum conditions. changes in winds are in general small. in the case of a doubling of carbon dioxide the simulation indicates a cooling of the atmosphere everywhere above the tropopause but by the smallest values around the mesopause. it is shown that the temperature response up to the mesopause is strongly influenced by changes in dynamics. during northern hemisphere summer, dynamical processes alone would lead to an almost global warming of up to 3 k in the uppermost mesosphere.
What happens to a non-negligible fraction of precipitation before it reaches the ground?
a non-negligible fraction of precipitation re-evaporates before it reaches the ground
What is p?
p is the layer thickness in pressure units
What type of an impact can Sub-grid scale variations in relative humidity have on the water uptake of aerosols?
sub-grid scale variations in relative humidity can have a large impact on the water uptake of aerosols and their radiative forcing
fdep i (9) the mean updraft tracer flux fup i for tracer i is recalculated based on the updated updraft tracer mixing ratios: fup i (ci - ci) fup (10) a non-negligible fraction of precipitation re-evaporates before it reaches the ground. re-evaporation acts on the integrated tracer deposition flux fdep i int proportionally to the evaporation of precipitation: fdep i int fdep i int fevap (11) ci t fdep i int g p (12) where fevapis the evaporating fraction of precipitation, p is the layer thickness in pressure units, and g is the gravitational acceleration. for aerosols, below-cloud scavenging is calculated from the echam5 waterand iceprecipitation fluxes with prescribed size-dependent collection efficiencies rr iand rs i from seinfeld and pandis (1998) for rain and snow, normalised by the respective precipitation rate ci t camb i fprecip  rr if r+ rs if s (13) where camb i is the mass mixing ratio of the ambient cloud free air, fprecipis the effective grid-box fraction affected by precipitation, and frand fsare the fluxes of rain and snow, respectively. fprecipis estimated in the stratiform scheme by the assumption of maximum overlap of the cloudy parts of the grid box and for the convective scheme from the estimated updraft area. 2.6 relative humidity sub-grid scale variations in relative humidity can have a large impact on the water uptake of aerosols and their radiative forcing (e.g. haywood et al., 1997a). as cloud processing of aerosols and cloud radiative effects predominate in the cloudy part of the grid box, it is desirable to apply ambient conditions for the aerosol microphysics and thermodynamics in the cloud free part. the usage of the grid mean relative humidity rh q/qsleads to an overestimation of rh in the cloud free part of a partly clouded grid box. the cause is that it can be assumed that air in the cloudy part of the grid box is close to saturation. here q and qsare grid-mean and saturation specific humidities, respectively. this assumption allows to calculate the relative humidity in the cloud-free part of the grid box: rhamb= qamb
What is .q?
q is the rate of diabatic heating due to radiation and viscous dissipation per unit volume of the fluid
What is p?
p is the pressure
What is pr?
pr is the pressure of the fluid at a reference state
dv (34) where .q is the rate of diabatic heating due to radiation and viscous dissipation per unit volume of the fluid, p is the pressure, pr is the pressure of the fluid at a reference state,   1  cv/ cp cv and cp are the specific heats of the fluid at constant volume and pressure, respectively), t is the temperature, and tr is the temperature at the reference state. in this manipulation, we have used a relation between temperature and pressure tr/ t  pr/ p )] for an adiabatic transport from the real state to the reference state. one can see from equation (34) that the generation rate g is essentially the same as the generation rate of maximum possible work found by carnot (equation (4)). if we can assume that the rate of viscous heating is negligible in comparison with that of radiative heating or cooling, and that the entire atmosphere is in a steady state, then
In which additional area has the Robert-Miller-Sommeria theory been applied to?
stratified fluids (essentially in the quasi-geostrophic regime
What does the statistical equilibria of the two-layer QG model show?
even at statistical equilibrium, there will remain some residual energy in the baroclinic mode, unless the initial vertical profile of fine-grained enstrophy is uniform
Based on question 2, how does this play out in the context of continuously stratified flows?
bottomtrapped currents are indeed statistical equilibria of the robert-miller-sommeria theory. still in the continuous case, venaille et al. (2012) have also studied the vertical distribution of energy at statistical equilibrium, focusing on the tendency to reach barotropic equilibrium states; as also observed in the two-layer model, the constraint of conservation of fine-grained enstrophy prevents complete elimination of energy in the baroclinic mode. as the b effect increases, barotropization is facilitated, until we enter a regime dominated by waves. it is well known that baroclinic dynamics is hindered by strong values
in addition to the 2d and quasi-2d cases mentioned above, the theory has also been applied to stratified fluids (essentially in the quasi-geostrophic regime). herbert (2014) has obtained and classified the statistical equilibria of the two-layer qg model in the framework of the robert-miller-sommeria theory, and updated the discussion of the vertical distribution of energy at statistical equilibrium (see section iii.b.2): in particular, it is shown that even at statistical equilibrium, there will remain some residual energy in the baroclinic mode, unless the initial vertical profile of fine-grained enstrophy is uniform. in the context of continuously stratified flows, venaille (2012) has taken up the thread initiated by merryfield (1998) (see section iii.b.2) and shown that bottomtrapped currents are indeed statistical equilibria of the robert-miller-sommeria theory. still in the continuous case, venaille et al. (2012) have also studied the vertical distribution of energy at statistical equilibrium, focusing on the tendency to reach barotropic equilibrium states; as also observed in the two-layer model, the constraint of conservation of fine-grained enstrophy prevents complete elimination of energy in the baroclinic mode. as the b effect increases, barotropization is facilitated, until we enter a regime dominated by waves. it is well known that baroclinic dynamics is hindered by strong values b holton 2004).
What was the criteria to exclude the species and why?
species with less than 20 records in the data set were excluded from the analysis to reduce errors associated with excessively small sample sizes
Which fraction of angiosperm dicotyledons have been digitized?
salicales, myricales, juglandales, fagales, urticales, proteales, santales, aristolochiales, balanophorales, polygonales, centrospermae and ranales
What is the expansion of UTM?
utm (universal transverse mercator
(afe) (lahti lampinen, 1999), which contains digitized maps for more than 2600 species across europe. species with less than 20 records in the data set were excluded from the analysis to reduce errors associated with excessively small sample sizes (stockwell peterson, 2002). species retained (1205 species) included all european pteridophytes, a sample of spermatophytes comprising representatives of all gymnosperm families (coniferales, taxales and gnetales) and a fraction of angiosperm dicotyledons (salicales, myricales, juglandales, fagales, urticales, proteales, santales, aristolochiales, balanophorales, polygonales, centrospermae and ranales), but no monocotyledons as these have not yet been digitized. species data were originally located in 4419 utm (universal transverse mercator) 50
What are the effects of latitude and longitude?
on the basis of our climate modeling study, the time of year of a high - latitude volcanic eruption is critical for determining the resulting climate effects, provided the eruption is large enough. of the magnitudes we have investigated, a summer eruption was the only one that caused climate effects at a sufficient level of statistical significance. extrapolating our results, a high - latitude eruption will have larger climate effects if it occurs in the summer, and it is unlikely to have climate effects if it erupts in the winter, unless the eruption is particularly large. regardless of the time of year
Simulations of eruptions clearly vivari these important effects ?
a high - latitude eruption of the magnitudes we have simulated would not likely cause significant dynamical perturbations or change the general circulation. in line with stenchikov et al. [2009], we further conclude the ocean has memory of the cooling an eruption causes, which can serve to modulate changes in climate. however, the runs we have completed are not long enough to fully assess the impacts of the ocean on the climate system. we stress that simulations of large eruptions need to include a complex ocean to capture these potentially important effects
What is a summer outbreak?
from our results, the optimal time for an eruption to have the largest climate effects appears to be late spring to early summer. this study also prompts several additional questions. one such question is what are the dominant parameters that determine whether an eruption will have climate effects? it appears the summer eruption is an ideal or near - ideal combination of aerosol formation rate, deposifigure 14. a comparison between simulations of (left) the 5 tg eruption on 12 june 2008 and (right) simulations of katmai from oman et al. [2005] (reproductions of figures 7a and 10a of oman et al. [2005]). statistical significance at the 95% confidence level is denoted by black hatching
on the basis of our climate modeling study, the time of year of a high - latitude volcanic eruption is critical for determining the resulting climate effects, provided the eruption is large enough. of the magnitudes we have investigated, a summer eruption was the only one that caused climate effects at a sufficient level of statistical significance. extrapolating our results, a high - latitude eruption will have larger climate effects if it occurs in the summer, and it is unlikely to have climate effects if it erupts in the winter, unless the eruption is particularly large. regardless of the time of year, a high - latitude eruption of the magnitudes we have simulated would not likely cause significant dynamical perturbations or change the general circulation. in line with stenchikov et al. [2009], we further conclude the ocean has memory of the cooling an eruption causes, which can serve to modulate changes in climate. however, the runs we have completed are not long enough to fully assess the impacts of the ocean on the climate system. we stress that simulations of large eruptions need to include a complex ocean to capture these potentially important effects. from our results, the optimal time for an eruption to have the largest climate effects appears to be late spring to early summer. this study also prompts several additional questions. one such question is what are the dominant parameters that determine whether an eruption will have climate effects? it appears the summer eruption is an ideal or near - ideal combination of aerosol formation rate, deposifigure 14. a comparison between simulations of (left) the 5 tg eruption on 12 june 2008 and (right) simulations of katmai from oman et al. [2005] (reproductions of figures 7a and 10a of oman et al. [2005]). statistical significance at the 95% confidence level is denoted by black hatching.
Climate change may result in what?
climate change may result in complex interactions in natural systems
Without continued monitoring the effects on what will be difficult to asses?
the effects on processes, such as ground-water and surface-water interaction, ecosystem change, or pollutant transport, will be difficult to assess without continued monitoring
Without what we would have no basis for evaluating the many models that are routinely used in water resources today, including, for example, the hydraulic models that are used to route flood flows or the watershed models that are used to estimate streamflow and water-quality conditions under current land use?
without monitoring networks, we would have no basis for evaluating the many models that are routinely used in water resources today, including, for example, the hydraulic models that are used to route flood flows or the watershed models that are used to estimate streamflow and water-quality conditions under current land use
observational data have long been used in studies that seek to improve our understanding of hydrologic processes. in terms of climate change, ipcc (2007a) reports that observational data are part of what has allowed increased sophistication of analyses, improved understanding of physical processes, the resulting process models, and characterization of the uncertainty of model results. climate change may result in complex interactions in natural systems. the effects on processes, such as ground-water and surface-water interaction, ecosystem change, or pollutant transport, will be difficult to assess without continued monitoring. these data are also critical for calibrating and validating models and initializing model projections. without monitoring networks, we would have no basis for evaluating the many models that are routinely used in water resources today, including, for example, the hydraulic models that are used to route flood flows or the watershed models that are used to estimate streamflow and water-quality conditions under current land use. the continued usefulness of models under a changed climate also requires continued collection of observational data. 2 tracking climate change impacts 15
What is addressing the "demand" rather than the "supply" of conspiracy theories?
rather than being directed at changing the minds of actual believers, communication should be directed at inoculating potential consumers of conspiracy theories against accepting them
What are "debiasing" techniques directly applicable to?   f
debiasing" techniques that are directly applicable to the rebuttal of conspiracy theories
What did Lewandowsky, Ecker, Seifert, Schwarz, and Cook (2012) include suggestions for?
include suggestions about how to avoid various backfire effects that can arise when people's worldviews are challenged by corrective information
motivated climate denial 631 plane hitting the pentagon on september 11 in order to detract from the real conspiracy, which was to destroy the twin towers, and so on). sunstein and vermeule noted the possibility of addressing the "demand" rather than the "supply" of conspiracy theories; that is, rather than being directed at changing the minds of actual believers, communication should be directed at inoculating potential consumers of conspiracy theories against accepting them. similarly, lewandowsky, ecker, seifert, schwarz, and cook (2012) offered a broad review of "debiasing" techniques that are directly applicable to the rebuttal of conspiracy theories and include suggestions about how to avoid various backfire effects that can arise when people's worldviews are challenged by corrective information. some of those suggestions, such as reaffirmation of a subset of beliefs among consumers of conspiracy theories, were echoed by sunstein and vermeule (2009). declaration of conflicting interests
In which three primary ways can species effectively respond to climate change?
moving in space or time to remain in a constant environmental niche, evolutionary adaptation, or phenotypic acclimation or plasticity
Can we use our knowledge of traits and phylogenetic relatedness to predict the relative importance of different responses to environmental change across different species?
the potential for using species' characteristics to assess vulnerability to climate change has long been heralded, but only recently quantitatively assessed
Which are the three approaches to ecological forecasting?
first, traits have been incorporated in regressions attempting to explain recent distribution and phenological shifts. second, traits have been used to parameterize process-based models that translate environmental conditions into energetics and demography. third, phylogenetic relatedness may be used as a proxy for phenotypes to predict species responses
species can effectively respond to climate change in three primary ways: moving in space or time to remain in a constant environmental niche, evolutionary adaptation, or phenotypic acclimation or plasticity. if these three response strategies fail, species face extinction. can we use our knowledge of traits and phylogenetic relatedness to predict the relative importance of different responses to environmental change across different species? the potential for using species' characteristics to assess vulnerability to climate change has long been heralded, but only recently quantitatively assessed. for example, williams et al. (2008) envisioned a vulnerability framework incorporating biotic vulnerability, exposure to climate change, potential evolutionary and acclimatory responses, and the potential efficacy of management strategies. one challenge is that it is often difficult to relate responses such as phenological shifts to fitness or population growth. we review three approaches to ecological forecasting. first, traits have been incorporated in regressions attempting to explain recent distribution and phenological shifts. second, traits have been used to parameterize process-based models that translate environmental conditions into energetics and demography. third, phylogenetic relatedness may be used as a proxy for phenotypes to predict species responses. the rationale for this approach is that niche conservatism, the tendency for closely related species to share similar traits (wiens et al. 2010), implies that closely related species will respond similarly to climate change figure 3 ).
What does this study offer?
n summary, this study offers a comprehensive characterisation of climate change impacts due to changes in exposure to non-optimal outdoor temperature, hot as well as cold, across various regions and under alternative scenarios of global warming
How many results need to be highlighted?
two results must be highlighted
What development the evidence produced in this study can contribute?
the evidence produced in this study can inform the ongoing international discussion and implementation of the recent agreement reached in paris,27,28 and contribute to the development of coordinated and evidence-based climate and public health policies.1,29
in summary, this study offers a comprehensive characterisation of climate change impacts due to changes in exposure to non-optimal outdoor temperature, hot as well as cold, across various regions and under alternative scenarios of global warming. two results must be highlighted. first, the impact varies across areas, and populations living in warmer and, in some cases, poorer regions are expected to experience a heavier burden. second, increases in temperature-related excess mortality are substantially reduced in scenarios involving mitigation strategies to limit greenhouse emissions and further warming of the planet, and stricter mitigation approaches are associated with larger benefits. the evidence produced in this study can inform the ongoing international discussion and implementation of the recent agreement reached in paris,27,28 and contribute to the development of coordinated and evidence-based climate and public health policies.1,29
Why is estimating the impact of flooding on people and their health complex?
estimating the impact of fl ooding on people and their health is complex due to the many dimensions of the impacts
estimating the impact of fl ooding on people and their health is complex due to the many dimensions of the impacts. according to available literature and information, the death toll was about 150 in the 1988 fl ood but the affected population was reported as about 2.2 million people.(20) professor hye carried out a rapid appraisal on fl ood-affected people during the 1998 fl ood, dividing the fl ood-affected areas into three categories: most severely affected (msa), severely affected (sa) and moderately affected (ma). it was found that the fl ood displaced or dislocated 94 per cent of families in the msa areas, about 52 per cent of families in the sa areas and 50 per cent in the ma areas. the estimate for the total fl ood-affected population was about 4.55 million.(21)
Who participated in initiative
school districts, individual schools, and community centers from 40 of the 64 counties in the state participated in this initiative
Survey data were collected in how many schools
survey data were collected in 78 schools or community centers, with data collection occurring in all classrooms for each of the target grades
By whom the data collection protocol was approved
all data collection was conducted in compliance with the protocol approved by the human subjects review board of the colorado foundation for families and children, including acquiring informed parental consent and youth assent
the data for the present study were part of a 3-year bullying prevention initiative in colorado, fully supported by the colorado trust, a private grant-making foundation in denver. school districts, individual schools, and community centers from 40 of the 64 counties in the state participated in this initiative. survey data were collected in 78 schools or community centers, with data collection occurring in all classrooms for each of the target grades. as in many schools across the united states, those involved in the present study were actively attempting to address bullying in a variety of ways. however, no uniform intervention was in place between assessments at time 1 and time 2 (henceforth, t1 and t2). all data collection was conducted in compliance with the protocol approved by the human subjects review board of the colorado foundation for families and children, including acquiring informed parental consent and youth assent.
Overall, what are the impacts of climate change on trees?
the impacts of climate change on forest growth and health will vary on a regional basis, and will be influenced by species composition, site conditions and local microclimate
Why would productivity in northeastern Ontario increase?
productivity in northeastern ontario may also increase under the combined effects of higher temperatures, increased precipitation, and a longer growing season
What do researchers suggest climate warming could have a negative impact on?
some researchers suggest that climate warming could have a negative impact on the physiology and health of forest ecosystems in the great lakes- st. lawrence region
overall, the impacts of climate change on forest growth and health will vary on a regional basis, and will be influenced by species composition, site conditions and local microclimate.(12)in the aspen forests of western canada, forest productivity may increase due to longer frost-free periods and elevated co2 concentrations,(18)although an accompanying increase in drought stress could create problems. productivity in northeastern ontario may also increase under the combined effects of higher temperatures, increased precipitation, and a longer growing season.(30)in contrast, some researchers suggest that climate warming could have a negative impact on the physiology and health of forest ecosystems in the great lakes- st. lawrence region.(31)
What has Dr. Connor specialized in?
dr. connor has a background in development/natural resource economics and has specialized in the geography of infectious disease in africa
Which WHO program is Dr. Connor an advisor to?
he has worked extensively in sub-saharan africa for the uk medical research council, the uk department for international development's malaria knowledge programmes, and is an advisor to who's roll back malaria technical resource network on epidemic prevention and control
What does Dr. Connor determine via his investigation into the interaction of climate, environment, economy and social vulnerability?
dr. connor investigates the interaction of climate, environment, economy and social vulnerability in determining the patterns and persistence of infectious disease in the developing world
dr. connor has a background in development/natural resource economics and has specialized in the geography of infectious disease in africa. he has worked extensively in sub-saharan africa for the uk medical research council, the uk department for international development's malaria knowledge programmes, and is an advisor to who's roll back malaria technical resource network on epidemic prevention and control. dr. connor investigates the interaction of climate, environment, economy and social vulnerability in determining the patterns and persistence of infectious disease in the developing world. since 2005, dr. connor has also directed the activities of the paho/who collaborating centre on early warning systems for malaria and other climate sensitive diseases.
what are the two types of project rankings that are suggested?
general or qualitative
how many strategic junctures for incorporating climate change in resource priorities are listed?
three
what is a real life example of a "Major Disturbance"?
tree planting after wildfire can promote species assemblages that are expected to have acceptable survival and growth in a warmer climate, thus mimicking historical processes by which species have adapted to natural climatic variability. planting with new species mixes or new genotype combinations, or assisting development of new animal habitats after disturbance
step 2: rank -- once climate-related background materials have been adequately reviewed, plans, project proposals, and existing projects need to be ranked, that is, relative priorities for action determined, and priority locations evaluated. this ranking can be general or qualitative (e.g., low, moderate, high) as opposed to ordinal (1, 2, 3,...). after review of potential climate effects, details of management activities might not differ from what would be done otherwise, although relative priorities for projects may change because of climate concerns. national forests often have long lists of pro posed and existing projects, as well as many long-term plans and projects. owing to limited staff and budgets, a key element of decisionmaking is to rank projects for priority of implementation. three strategic junctures for incorporating climate change in resource priorities commonly arise (joyce et al. 2008). first, major disturbances, such as fire, flood, or forest mortality present an opportunity for revising standard management approaches by resetting ecological trajectories in new climate-adapted directions. for example, tree planting after wildfire can promote species assemblages that are expected to have acceptable survival and growth in a warmer climate, thus mimicking historical processes by which species have adapted to natural climatic variability. planting with new species mixes or new genotype combinations, or assisting development of new animal habitats after disturbance, are examples of actions that can be taken after a disturbance. second, incorporating climate-sensitive actions in planning is proactive adaptation that enables species and ecosystems to shift gradually to new states. examples include using prescribed fire, introducing new species mixes, and moving species to new locations. third, some priority-setting exercises may deem that no climate-related action is warranted; that is, resources are at low risk, species have stable populations not sensitive to a warmer climate, or refugial areas have minimal response to climate change. additional guides for taking action or post poning action are summarized in figure 8.
Define the opportunities that proposed for risks adaptation work?
there are opportunities to serve clients in helping to better manage climate risks including the risks from current variability and extremes. to this end a set of risk screening tools has been proposed which can be used to help focus and direct the next phase
What are the suggestions that needs to impose Bank teams and Task managers?
the need as we see it is primarily to increase the awareness of the risks of climate change and to give practitioners in the development process the tools they need to do the job
this report provides the components of an incremental approach that can be followed by the bank and its client countries to gain practical experience in the incorporation of climate change adaptation into regular development assistance. the approach involves close work with client governments at both the national policy and development strategy level as well as in the project cycle. while a cautious approach is wise in order to avoid the potential mistakes of inadvertently facilitating maladaptation and a concentration on isolated stand-alone structural adaptation measures, it is also clear that there are opportunities to serve clients in helping to better manage climate risks including the risks from current variability and extremes. to this end a set of risk screening tools has been proposed which can be used to help focus and direct the next phase of adaptation work (section 3). in addition, we have made some suggestions on how adaptation funding opportunities related to the un framework convention could be optimally directed towards adaptation as an integral part of poverty reduction and sustainable development (section 4). our suggestions for enhanced climate risk management in bank work at the country and project level are based upon two assumptions about the relationship of climate change and development. first there are opportunities to increase the benefits of development activities by taking climate change, variability, and extreme events fully into account. not to do so may deprive clients of new ways of strengthening the development process. second there are dangers both to specific projects and to the broader development strategy if climate risks are not adequately taken into account. just how big and important these benefits and risks are varies greatly from country to country, place to place, and project to project. where the greatest vulnerabilities lie is not immediately obvious, but the screening required to identify priority concerns is neither complicated nor time consuming. we do not suggest that draconian steps are required to impose these concerns on bank teams and task managers. the need as we see it is primarily to increase the awareness of the risks of climate change and to give practitioners in the development process the tools they need to do the job.
What is the author's second argument for the perception that attribution cannot be conducted for specific weather events?
the second argument is that the climate change signal cannot be detected for extreme events because they are rare
Why couldn't anthropogenic influence be determined for the 2010 floods in Pakistan?
in a recent study of the 2010 floods in pakistan, the influence of anthropogenic forcing could not be determined because the model could not reliably simulate the event
What is one claim that the media makes in regards to extreme weather events?
extreme event attribution is the subject of considerable debate, and some confusion in the media; with many commentators either claiming that nothing can be said about extreme events, or that every extreme event which occurs is due to global warming
climate scientists have well-established techniques to attribute long term trends in mean climate over large regions of the globe10,11, which could provide evidence about loss and damage from slow onset processes. in the last ten years there have also been efforts to investigate human influence on extreme weather events7-9. extreme event attribution is the subject of considerable debate, and some confusion in the media; with many commentators either claiming that nothing can be said about extreme events, or that every extreme event which occurs is due to global warming. the scientific position is slightly more nuanced. the perception that attribution cannot be conducted for specific events, or that the relevant science is not robust12, is generally based on one of three arguments. first, that natural variability generates extreme weather, and therefore we cannot say that a specific flood or drought would not have occurred without climate change. event attribution research does not seek to counter this statement, but rather investigates the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to the probability of occurrence of specific events7. the second argument is that the climate change signal cannot be detected for extreme events because they are rare. the technique of probabilistic event attribution overcomes this challenge using ensembles of simulations of climate models13. the third opposition is that climate model experiments cannot adequately reproduce the dynamics associated with extreme weather events, or the conditions in a world without anthropogenic emissions, which are simulated to estimate the climate change signal13. model capability is an important consideration, but the presence of uncertainty alone does not imply that the results cannot be useful for policy. in principle, the limitations of the experiments used for attribution are no different from those of climate model experiments used for future projections, which are routinely employed by adaptation decision makers. provided that uncertainties are communicated, attribution results also have the potential to be useful for policy-makers. extreme event attribution cannot, however, provide evidence of an anthropogenic signal for every damaging event. this is in part because the work has not yet been conducted: to date the literature has focused on a small number of disasters, mainly in developed countries8, 9. as research progresses, however, there will remain substantial variations in attribution evidence. for some events, attribution studies show that climate change has increased the risk of occurrence13, but for others there is a decrease in risk14, or no change15. importantly, there are also cases where it is not possible to assess the climate change signal, due to model limitations or a lack of observational data. in a recent study of the 2010 floods in pakistan, the influence of anthropogenic forcing could not be determined because the model could not reliably simulate the event16. in addition, attribution studies cannot currently be conducted for tropical cyclones. future model developments and access to greater computing power will improve this, but model ability will never be equal for all events.
What are the causes of natural forcing arousal?
natural forcings (arising from solar variability and aerosol emissions via volcanic activity) are also specified elements in the cmip5 experimental protocol, but their future time evolutions are not prescribed
What is the full form of AOGCMs?
the forcing agents implemented in atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (aogcms) and esms used to make long-term climate projections in cmip5 are summarized in table 12.1
Which experimental protocol is mentioned for long-term transient climate experiments?
the cmip5 experimental protocol for long-term transient climate experiments prescribes a common basis for a comprehensive set of anthropogenic forcing agents acting as boundary conditions in three experimental phases--historical, rcps and ecps (taylor et al., 2012
the cmip5 experimental protocol for long-term transient climate experiments prescribes a common basis for a comprehensive set of anthropogenic forcing agents acting as boundary conditions in three experimental phases--historical, rcps and ecps (taylor et al., 2012). to permit common implementations of this set of forcing agents in cmip5 models, self-consistent forcing data time series have been computed and provided to participating models (see sections 9.3.2.2 and 12.3.1.3) comprising emissions or concentrations of ghgs and related compounds, ozone and atmospheric aerosols and their chemical precursors, and land use change. the forcing agents implemented in atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (aogcms) and esms used to make long-term climate projections in cmip5 are summarized in table 12.1. the number of cmip5 models listed here is about double the number of cmip3 models listed in table 10.1 of ar4 (meehl et al., 2007b). natural forcings (arising from solar variability and aerosol emissions via volcanic activity) are also specified elements in the cmip5 experimental protocol, but their future time evolutions are not prescribed
What consequence did "climategate" have?
clearly the coverage of 'climategate' was a major driver of the increases in the us and uk percentage figures
What has Boykoff argued?
boykoff has argued that while 'climategate' was a 'hot button issue' during this time in the uk and us press, it remained a 'relatively minor 'signal' quantitatively over this period amidst the 'noise' of overall climate change or global warming coverage
What have other studies showed about newspaper journalists and editors in UK and the US?
from other studies, it is clear that newspaper journalists and editors in the uk and the usa did see 'climategate' as a (perhaps short-lived) game changer in terms of the amount of space they were prepared to give to climate sceptics
clearly the coverage of 'climategate' was a major driver of the increases in the us and uk percentage figures. after all, such voices led the criticism of the behaviour of the scientists at the university of east anglia. from other studies, it is clear that newspaper journalists and editors in the uk and the usa did see 'climategate' as a (perhaps short-lived) game changer in terms of the amount of space they were prepared to give to climate sceptics14. they seem to have been far more willing to turn to sceptical voices in this period than their counterparts in other countries. in contrast, journalists from brazil, india, china and france did not pay as much attention to the story for a whole series of reasons, including geographical distance, language barriers, the complexity of the issues, and a view by some that the basics of climate science were not called into question. our data would support the evidence for a sharp difference in editorial approach between (parts of) the anglosaxon world and the non-anglo-saxon world. however, it is not clear the extent to which 'climategate' was the only, or even the main driver, of the greater prevalence of sceptical voices in the us and uk press. for example, boykoff has argued that while 'climategate' was a 'hot button issue' during this time in the uk and us press, it remained a 'relatively minor 'signal' quantitatively over this period amidst the 'noise' of overall climate change or global warming coverage' (boykoff 2011 p 36). moreover, the presence of organized sceptical groups or individual climate sceptics in those two countries, and their virtual absence in the other four countries, could have been just as important driver of media outcomes as editorial decisions. as has been well-documented, they are adept at getting their voices heard in the media when the opportunities arise (dunlap and mccright 2010 oreskes and conway 2010 ).
What has been incorporated in a GCM climate change projection?
both interactive carbon and sulphur cycles
What plays a key role?
the direct and indirect cooling effects of sulphate aerosols
What will occur by 2100?
strong positive feedbacks between climate and the carbon cycle have accelerated the rate of global warming and co2 increase
for the first time, both interactive carbon and sulphur cycles have been incorporated in a gcm climate change projection with a full set of natural and anthropogenic climate forcing factors. this more complete treatment of the earth system has been found to improve the simulation of historical climate change. we have also found these extra forcings to have a significant impact on the carbon cycle. the overestimate of present day co2 in a previous climate-carbon cycle model cox et al. 2000] has therefore been shown to be due in large part to the omission of these important additional forcing factors. the direct and indirect cooling effects of sulphate aerosols play a key role, suppressing the rate of warming due to greenhouse gases, and thereby increasing historical carbon accumulation by delaying the negative impacts of climate change on the land carbon cycle. however, this effect is only transient. anthropogenic sulphate emissions are expected to reduce strongly throughout the 21st century, leading to a reducing negative forcing (i.e. a net warming) from sulphate aerosols. future climate change is therefore projected to be more rapid when these additional factors are included, fuelled partly by more abrupt carbon cycle feedbacks as the additional carbon accumulated in the soils during the historical period is released to the atmosphere. by 2100 strong positive feedbacks between climate and the carbon cycle have accelerated the rate of global warming and co2 increase. this work indicates that strong positive carbon cycle feedbacks in the future are consistent with the historical record provided non-greenhouse gas forcing factors are taken into account. these additional climate forcings are doubly important, since these both directly determine key aspects of climate change and its consequences, and also indirectly influence climate change through their impact on the future trajectory of atmospheric co2. acknowledgments. this work was supported by the uk department for the environment, food and regional affairs under contract pecd 7/12/37.
How are the dispersal paths of smaller-bodied mammals?
however, smaller-bodied mammals generally have more tortuous or winding dispersal paths (20). more sinuous dispersal paths in smaller species that are, in general, already dispersal limited may further inhibit the ability for small species to keep pace with climate change
What does the model ignore?
finally, in our model, dispersal trajectories ignore topography, rivers, roads, and other dispersal barriers, which may either impede movement or increase travel distance by requiring animals to take alternate routes
What was the result of using different dispersal estimates?
using the different dispersal estimates resulted in no change in the relative patterns of geographic and taxonomic inabilities to keep pace with climate change and little change in the magnitude of the results si appendix 
some of the assumptions we make in estimating dispersal likely result in underestimates of the percentages of mammals unable to reach suitable climate. for example, we assume that successful reproduction occurs at the youngest age biologically possible and that offspring in every generation survive to dispersal age and successfully disperse. in reality, dispersal has high associated mortality (12, 19). we also assume that suitable habitat and climates for establishment, survival, and reproduction will exist between regions of current and future climate and that individuals will disperse directly toward the closest suitable grid cell. however, smaller-bodied mammals generally have more tortuous or winding dispersal paths (20). more sinuous dispersal paths in smaller species that are, in general, already dispersal limited may further inhibit the ability for small species to keep pace with climate change. finally, in our model, dispersal trajectories ignore topography, rivers, roads, and other dispersal barriers, which may either impede movement or increase travel distance by requiring animals to take alternate routes. alternatively, we may overestimate the percentage of mammals unable to keep pace because reduced habitat suitability may lead to adaptation of increased dispersal distances (2, 21). although we may overestimate or underestimate dispersal velocities for particular species, in general, the overall patterns of our results are relatively insensitive to uncertainties in natal dispersal velocity. to investigate the impacts of these uncertainties, we applied our models using a range of dispersal velocity estimates that varied by more than 200 km/y for some species si appendix ). using the different dispersal estimates resulted in no change in the relative patterns of geographic and taxonomic inabilities to keep pace with climate change and little change in the magnitude of the results si appendix ). for example, across 90% of the western hemisphere, using the lowest and highest estimates of dispersal velocity resulted in, at most, a difference of four mammals that could not keep pace with climate change. the largest difference was nine mammals and it only occurred in 0.013% of the grid cells of the western hemisphere. although taxonomic patterns are insensitive to natal dispersal estimates, the results are sensitive to dispersal frequency. for a subset of 193 species, a maximum estimate of breeding dispersal velocity that ignores the time between generations was relatively greater for species with delayed reproductive maturity such as ungulates, carnivores, and primates. these estimates had negligible impacts on the results for carnivores and ungulates, but resulted in a 52% average decrease in the percentage of primates ' ranges that will be unable to keep pace with climate change si appendix ). however, this estimate represents the upper limit of species ' movement potential rather than a likely dispersal scenario because natal dispersal is generally more common than breeding dispersal due to the evolution of a natal dispersal strategy (22) and is often the single largest longdistance movement event (12).
How does warm weather impact freshwater ecosystems?
a warmer climate and the resulting effects on precipitation and the amount of snow are projected to increase rates of desiccation and alter the salinity of freshwater and estuary ecosystems
What are the forecasts for aquatic systems in arid regions?
naturally saline aquatic systems in arid regions such as the southwestern united states will experience increased desiccation and salinization (seager et al. 2007), and saltwater intrusions will occur in some coastal areas (frederick gleick 1999). altered pathways of species s increasing salinization in coastal ecosystems will likely have a strong influence on pathways of species introductions
How was the marine transport activity developed?
many of the recent invasions of the laurentian great lakes and of the caspian, azov, black, and baltic seas have resulted from shipping activities, particularly through the release of contaminated ballast water (carlton geller 1993). the primary method used to reduce the spread of non-native species via ballastwater discharge is open-ocean ballast-water exchange
a warmer climate and the resulting effects on precipitation and the amount of snow are projected to increase rates of desiccation and alter the salinity of freshwater and estuary ecosystems. naturally saline aquatic systems in arid regions such as the southwestern united states will experience increased desiccation and salinization (seager et al. 2007), and saltwater intrusions will occur in some coastal areas (frederick gleick 1999). altered pathways of species s increasing salinization in coastal ecosystems will likely have a strong influence on pathways of species introductions. many of the recent invasions of the laurentian great lakes and of the caspian, azov, black, and baltic seas have resulted from shipping activities, particularly through the release of contaminated ballast water (carlton geller 1993). the primary method used to reduce the spread of non-native species via ballastwater discharge is open-ocean ballast-water exchange.
If the Kyoto protocol was a success what would have been the result?
contribution to slowing the growth of emissions
What was the major weaknessof Kyoto protocol?
it did not contain sufficient economic glue to hold a cooperative coalition together
What are the key steps of treaty?
negotiation, ratification, implementation, and renegotiation
h. the kyoto protocol as a failed regime one test of the approach used here is to examine the stability of the kyoto protocol. this agreement included at the outset a substantial fraction of global emissions and would, if it had broadened and deepened, have made a substantial contribution to slowing the growth of emissions. however, it failed to gain new adherents, and some of the members with binding commitments, particularly the us, dropped out. conceptually, the kyoto protocol was a climate club with no sanctions. to test its coalition stability, i formed an initial club with only the original annex i kyoto protocol countries having binding emissions commitments with no penalties for noncompliance 0 percent tariff starting with the original kyoto coalition status, i tested for coalition stability as described above. all of the simulations collapsed to the noncooperative equilibrium. see figure b-5 in the online appendix for the simulations. this might not be surprising in light of the analysis above. however, recall that the analytical models assume much more environmental and economic homogeneity than is seen in reality. perhaps some combination of damages, abatement costs, and carbon intensities might lead to limited cooperation. however, for the modeling structure used here, the kyoto protocol could not survive. so the conclusion from this simple test is that the kyoto protocol was doomed from the start. it did not contain sufficient economic glue to hold a cooperative coalition together. i. regional choice among regimes the present analysis focuses on the design of a climate club and the extent to which different club designs succeed in inducing efficient participation and abatement. in reality, treaties do not spring full-grown but emerge from a complicated diplomatic process. the key steps are negotiation, ratification, implementation, and renegotiation. the present study focuses on negotiation and assumes that once treaties are negotiated, they are ratified and implemented so there are no "cheap talk" negotiations negotiations take place in two parts. the first stage is treaty design, while the second is the decision whether to participate. for the kyoto protocol, the united states was deeply involved in treaty design but did not ratify the treaty. the last section explains the us nonparticipation and the eventual collapse of the kyoto protocol as the failure to design a treaty that would lead to widespread participation and renewal. turn next to the issue of treaty design. suppose that climate negotiations consider the different climate club regimes analyzed above. which of the possible regimes would be chosen? consider these questions for a single case where the global scc is $25 per ton co2 and where the penalty tariff rate is 5 percent. individual countries have their own sccs say that the us scc is $4 and india's is $2 as well as their national abatement cost functions. if countries are just scaled-up or scaled-down replicas, all would prefer a $25 per ton target carbon price. in reality, countries differ, so their preferred target prices will differ. countries with high damages will prefer a high target carbon price because they will benefit from higher global abatement; countries with high abatement costs will prefer a low target price because that will reduce their abatement costs. the analog for health clubs is that people who
What is the benefit of the model?
nowledge supplies affect the rate and direction of technical change
What are the two factors to determinethe IPC?
tremendously influence mitigation costs
the foregoing devices explicitly model the mechanism via which prices and knowledge supplies affect the rate and direction of technical change. as discussed in section 3.3, at each point in time the ipc is implicitly defined by two factors: the difference in the size of the knowledge stocks, and either the knowledge elasticity of augmentation (the curvature of f ), or the elasticity of substitution between each kind of knowledge and its associated tangible input (the curvature of g ). but although these have the potential to tremendously influence mitigation costs sue wing, 2003 ), the dearth of empirical estimates on the ease of incorporating knowledge into production precludes empirical validation of models' calculations of the benefits of itc.33
How is the climate model divided?
this model of climate is comprised of several individually modeled components the atmosphere, the ocean, and sea ice which are equilibrated using a "spinup" process. this model was used in the 2nd ipcc report (houghton 1996). to obtain predicted impacts on temperature and precipitation, we assume a 1% per year compounded increase in both carbon dioxide and is92a sulphate aerosols, which implies that greenhouse gas concentrations will increase to roughly 2.5 times their current levels by the end of the 21st century
What is the result of the emission assumptions?
these assumptions about emissions and resulting climate change predictions are standard assumptions and result in middle of the range predictions. the hadley 2 model and this emission
the second set of predictions is from the hadley centre's 2nd coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model, which we refer to as hadley 2 (t. c. johns et al. 1997). this model of climate is comprised of several individually modeled components the atmosphere, the ocean, and sea ice which are equilibrated using a "spinup" process. this model was used in the 2nd ipcc report (houghton 1996). to obtain predicted impacts on temperature and precipitation, we assume a 1% per year compounded increase in both carbon dioxide and is92a sulphate aerosols, which implies that greenhouse gas concentrations will increase to roughly 2.5 times their current levels by the end of the 21st century. these assumptions about emissions and resulting climate change predictions are standard assumptions and result in middle of the range predictions. the hadley 2 model and this emission
What is this study seeking to develop?
this study has sought to develop a generalized understanding of the sensitivity of streamflow to changes in precipitation in the united states
What did a Monte Carlo experiment firstly conclude?
the following conclusions were reached: 1. both model form and model calibration play an important role in determining the sensitivity of model streamflow to climate. estimates of p were shown to depend on both model choice and model calibration. therefore it is difficult, if not impossible, to estimate the sensitivity of streamflow to climate using a single watershed model
this study has sought to develop a generalized understanding of the sensitivity of streamflow to changes in precipitation in the united states. the concept of elasticity  introduced to the hydrological literature by schaake [1990] is used to quantify the sensitivity of streamflow to changes in climate. this study and others [e.g., dooge 1992] have demonstrated that  is highly model-dependent. this makes it difficult to generalize our understanding of  because our understanding is also model-dependent. a monte carlo experiment compared various methods for estimation of the precipitation elasticity of streamflow p. the preferred nonparametric estimator was used to create a map of p for the united states, and some physical interpretations were provided for observed spatial variations in p. the following conclusions were reached: 1. both model form and model calibration play an important role in determining the sensitivity of model streamflow to climate. estimates of p were shown to depend on both model choice and model calibration. therefore it is difficult, if not impossible, to estimate the sensitivity of streamflow to climate using a single watershed model. 2. experiments reveal that the nonparametric estimator ep 1
which society is in question on this discussion of climate change
different sectors of uk society
how will climate scenarios be distributed in importance among uk society
since different individuals, organisations and sectors are sensitive to climate in different ways and to different degrees
what may be more useful to decision makers on climate change
e.g. impact assessments) may be more useful to decision-makers than the scenarios themselves
can multiple, and sometimes conflicting, demands from users for certain scenario attributes be reconciled? can different ways of framing uncertainty between scientists and decisionmakers be captured in one set of scenario products? if one looks across different sectors of uk society it is noticeable that there has been an uneven uptake of climate scenario information. this is not surprising since different individuals, organisations and sectors are sensitive to climate in different ways and to different degrees. consequently, the saliency of climate scenarios will be unevenly distributed amongst sectors of society. it is also the case that downstream products (e.g. impact assessments) may be more useful to decision-makers than the scenarios themselves, although climate scenarios are generally used as an input into such assessments.
In what years is a temperature rise expected in Nepal?
there is a significant and consistent increase in temperatures projected for nepal for the years 2030, 2050 and 2100 across the various climate models
Will the temperature rise be greater in the winter or summer?
increases in temperatures are somewhat larger for the winter months than the summer months
In what months will there be an increase in the rainfall of the summer monsoons?
the signal however is somewhat more pronounced for the increase in precipitation during the summer monsoon months (june, july and august
the results of the magicc/scengen analysis for nepal are shown in table 2. there is a significant and consistent increase in temperatures projected for nepal for the years 2030, 2050 and 2100 across the various climate models. increases in temperatures are somewhat larger for the winter months than the summer months. climate models also project an overall increase in annual precipitation. however, given the high standard deviation the results for annual precipitation should be interpreted with caution. even more speculative is the slight increase in winter precipitation. the signal however is somewhat more pronounced for the increase in precipitation during the summer monsoon months (june, july and august). this is because models estimate that air over land will warm more than air over oceans, leading to an amplification of the summer low pressure system that is responsible for the monsoon. these results are broadly consistent, though more pronounced than the country study for nepal that was based on outputs from four older generation gcms, only two of which simulated the summer monsoon and its intensification under the carbon dioxide doubling (yogacharya and shreshtha 1997). com/env/epoc/dcd/dac(2003)1/final 16 16
Explain Project Title Objective
project title objective partners early response systems for fire management in indonesia contribute to development of early action systems for improved fire management in the peatlands of central kalimantan, indonesia, including the identification of how climate information could be best integrated into decision-making. care indonesia department of environment, province of central kalimantan, indonesia university of palangkaraya, indonesia bogor agriculture university, indonesia impacts of climate variability on vectorborne disease transmission in sri lanka and the development of an early warning system develop models to forecast malaria risk and a prototype early warning system for the uva province in sri lanka
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory C.U. What are the ideas of the International Water Management Institute
lamont-doherty earth observatory, cu international water management institute, sri lanka mahaweli authority, sri lanka university of sri jayawardenapura, sri lanka ministry of health, sri lanka enhancing the resilience of farming systems in south and south east asia (completed) demonstrate and deliver benefits from climate forecast information for agricultural decision makers, and plot a course for large-scale, sustained operational support of seasonal climate prediction within india
What is the impact of climate change?
pakistan and indonesia. queensland department of primary industries, australia pakistan agricultural research council, pakistan indian institute of science, india tamil nadu agricultural university, india indian institute of tropical meteorology, india bureau of meteorology and geophysics, indonesia bogor agricultural university global change system for analysis, research and training climate change impact and adaptation in the plantation sector in sri lanka (completed) identify adaptation options and assess their feasibility of implementation; build capacity of natural and social scientists to undertake assessment studies. sri lanka department of meteorology sri lanka association for advancement of science tea research institute, sri lanka coconut research institute, sri lanka university of peradeniya, sri lanka
project title objective partners early response systems for fire management in indonesia contribute to development of early action systems for improved fire management in the peatlands of central kalimantan, indonesia, including the identification of how climate information could be best integrated into decision-making. care indonesia department of environment, province of central kalimantan, indonesia university of palangkaraya, indonesia bogor agriculture university, indonesia impacts of climate variability on vectorborne disease transmission in sri lanka and the development of an early warning system develop models to forecast malaria risk and a prototype early warning system for the uva province in sri lanka. lamont-doherty earth observatory, cu international water management institute, sri lanka mahaweli authority, sri lanka university of sri jayawardenapura, sri lanka ministry of health, sri lanka enhancing the resilience of farming systems in south and south east asia (completed) demonstrate and deliver benefits from climate forecast information for agricultural decision makers, and plot a course for large-scale, sustained operational support of seasonal climate prediction within india, pakistan and indonesia. queensland department of primary industries, australia pakistan agricultural research council, pakistan indian institute of science, india tamil nadu agricultural university, india indian institute of tropical meteorology, india bureau of meteorology and geophysics, indonesia bogor agricultural university global change system for analysis, research and training climate change impact and adaptation in the plantation sector in sri lanka (completed) identify adaptation options and assess their feasibility of implementation; build capacity of natural and social scientists to undertake assessment studies. sri lanka department of meteorology sri lanka association for advancement of science tea research institute, sri lanka coconut research institute, sri lanka university of peradeniya, sri lanka
What does Master fire chronologies from two mountain ranges in the southwestern United States illustrate?
master fire chronologies from two mountain ranges in the southwestern united states illustrate the value of examining historical patterns, rather than just the time and space-averaged aspects of fire regimes
What are the names of two mountain ranges?
the two mountain ranges are the mogollon mountains in the gila wilderness, new mexico, and the santa catalina mountains near tucson, arizona
How were the tree rings and fire scars in these samples were dated and composited?
the tree rings and fire scars in these samples were dated and composited using techniques described in detail elsewhere (dieterich 1980; dieterich and swetnam 1984; swetnam and dieterich 1985; baisan and swetnam 1990; swetnam and baisan 1996; abolt 1997; swetnam, baisan, and kaib 2001
master fire chronologies from two mountain ranges in the southwestern united states illustrate the value of examining historical patterns, rather than just the time and space-averaged aspects of fire regimes (figs. 6.3 and 6.4). the two mountain ranges are the mogollon mountains in the gila wilderness, new mexico, and the santa catalina mountains near tucson, arizona. stands were sampled along elevational transects in both mountain ranges. the tree rings and fire scars in these samples were dated and composited using techniques described in detail elsewhere (dieterich 1980; dieterich and swetnam 1984; swetnam and dieterich 1985; baisan and swetnam 1990; swetnam and baisan 1996; abolt 1997; swetnam, baisan, and kaib 2001).
who discussed these issues with?
i particularly thank mrs. annie ned, mrs. angela sidney, and mrs. kitty smith, who discussed these issues with me over many years
when  and where Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council ?
i also thank the champagne-aishihik first nation for including me in a visit that members made to yakutat, alaska, in june 1999
which three anonymous reviewers for helpful comments?
i especially thank garry clarke, karen mccullough, thomas thornton, and three anonymous reviewers for helpful comments on earlier drafts of this manuscript
the research on which this paper is based was funded by the social sciences and humanities research council of canada grant #410-99-0027. i particularly thank mrs. annie ned, mrs. angela sidney, and mrs. kitty smith, who discussed these issues with me over many years. i also thank the champagne-aishihik first nation for including me in a visit that members made to yakutat, alaska, in june 1999, and especially diane strand, sarah gaunt, john fingland, and steven reid, who continue to help me understand the local complexities of these issues. the facilities provided by the arctic institute's kluane research station and conversations there with david hik, peter johnson, and andy williams helped push my questions along. nora and richard dauenhauer, catharine mcclellan, and frederica de laguna have all provided invaluable suggestions. i especially thank garry clarke, karen mccullough, thomas thornton, and three anonymous reviewers for helpful comments on earlier drafts of this manuscript.
During what time period is uncertainty greatest?
uncertainty is greatest for the second half of summer
The greatest differences in scenario results were caused by discrepancies in what variable?
the greatest differences were caused by discrepancies in simulated basin precipitation
In what season did both models predict a higher flood risk?
both models showed the general picture of enhanced snowmelt during spring and a higher flood risk in summer
in august, for example, the oez predicts a reduction in runoff of around 50% compared to that simulated for current climate and glaciation conditions, whereas both hbv scenarios predict a reduction of runoff by approximately 75%. these differences cannot be explained through comparison of reference meteorological data. rather, it is most likely that the differences in calculated basin precipitation now manifest themselves. the oez and hbv scenarios thus span a range within which future runoff can be expected. uncertainty is greatest for the second half of summer. 5. discussion agreement between hbv and oez scenario results was best for the oigaing and ala archa river basins' 50% glaciation runs. the greatest differences were caused by discrepancies in simulated basin precipitation. this confirms the necessity of measured mass balance values in order to confine errors. in addition to basin precipitation simulation, runoff scenarios are also very sensitive to the degree of glaciation change. the subjective alteration of glaciation extent can mean the difference between a prediction of higher runoff levels (compared to those under current climate and glaciation conditions) and a drastic reduction in runoff availability. both models showed the general picture of enhanced snowmelt during spring and a higher flood risk in summer, which turns into a runoff deficiency after a certain degree of glacier degradation is reached. this pattern was also observed in the alps (hagg and braun 2005) and other mountain systems. it seems that local factors like weather patterns or the degree of glaciation have a far stronger effect on hydrological response than any paramter on a global scale, such as continentality. in larger catchments with a small portion of glaciers like oigaing, glacier runoff plays only a minor role at least if monthly runoff is considered. this correlates with findings of singh and kumar (1997) in the himalayas, where total runoff showed only very little changes to annual temperature increases of up to 3degc. moore (1992) modified hbv model inputs according to gcm scenarios in a glaciated basin in southwest canada. in contrast to the approach presented in this study, daily temperature and precipitation were changed linearly by annual change predictions that were quite moderate
W here is Biofuels derived from?
biofuels derived from low-input high-diversity (lihd) mixtures of native grassland perennials can provide more usable energy, greater greenhouse gas reductions, and less agrichemical pollution per hectare than can corn grain ethanol or soybean biodiesel
What did High-diversity grasslands have?
high-diversity grasslands had increasingly higher bioenergy yields that were 238% greater than monoculture yields after a decade
Why are LIHD biofuels are carbon negative?
lihd biofuels are carbon negative because net ecosystem carbon dioxide sequestration (4.4 megagram hectare- 1year- 1of carbon dioxide in soil and roots) exceeds fossil carbon dioxide release during biofuel production (0.32 megagram hectare- 1year- 1
biofuels derived from low-input high-diversity (lihd) mixtures of native grassland perennials can provide more usable energy, greater greenhouse gas reductions, and less agrichemical pollution per hectare than can corn grain ethanol or soybean biodiesel. high-diversity grasslands had increasingly higher bioenergy yields that were 238% greater than monoculture yields after a decade. lihd biofuels are carbon negative because net ecosystem carbon dioxide sequestration (4.4 megagram hectare- 1year- 1of carbon dioxide in soil and roots) exceeds fossil carbon dioxide release during biofuel production (0.32 megagram hectare- 1year- 1). moreover, lihd biofuels can be produced on agriculturally degraded lands and thus need to neither displace food production nor cause loss of biodiversity via habitat destruction.
What is CMM5?
mm5-based regional climate model (cmm5) simulations of the diurnal cycle of u.s. summer precipitation are found to be sensitive to the choice of cumulus parameterization schemes, whose skills are highly regime selective
What is the Grell scheme?
the grell scheme realistically simulates the nocturnal precipitation maxima and their associated eastward propagation of convective systems over the great plains where the diurnal timing of convection is controlled by the large-scale tropospheric forcing; whereas the kainfritsch scheme is more accurate for the late afternoon peaks in the southeast u.s. where moist convection is governed by the near-surface forcing
The realistic simulation of the central U.S. nocturnal precipitation maxima?
in radar rainfall data and the simulation with the grell scheme, another weaker eastward propagating diurnal signal is evident from the appalachians to the east coast. the result demonstrates the importance of cumulus schemes and provides a realistic simulation of the central u.s. nocturnal precipitation maxima
mm5-based regional climate model (cmm5) simulations of the diurnal cycle of u.s. summer precipitation are found to be sensitive to the choice of cumulus parameterization schemes, whose skills are highly regime selective. the grell scheme realistically simulates the nocturnal precipitation maxima and their associated eastward propagation of convective systems over the great plains where the diurnal timing of convection is controlled by the large-scale tropospheric forcing; whereas the kainfritsch scheme is more accurate for the late afternoon peaks in the southeast u.s. where moist convection is governed by the near-surface forcing. in radar rainfall data and the simulation with the grell scheme, another weaker eastward propagating diurnal signal is evident from the appalachians to the east coast. the result demonstrates the importance of cumulus schemes and provides a realistic simulation of the central u.s. nocturnal precipitation maxima. index terms: 1655 global change: water cycles (1836); 1854 hydrology: precipitation (3354). citation: liang, x.-z., l. li, a. dai, and k. e. kunkel (2004), regional climate model simulation of summer precipitation diurnal cycle over the united states, geophys. res. lett. 31 l24208, doi:10.1029/ 2004gl021054.
How is the accumulation of danger represented? Assigning data points at the limit temperature
we represented this accumulation of danger by assigning data points at the threshold temperature above which each metric becomes red
How does the aggregation method work? It works to average the thresholds for each impact metric
this aggregation method acts to average the thresholds of each impact metric, producing a median, 50th percentile threshold of 2.85degc above current temperatures, and a 90% confidence interval of
Why was the CDF DAI-O labeled? Because it is an average of cumulative impacts across all five metrics
here, we label this cdf dai-o, because it is an average of impacts accumulating across all five metrics
in ref. 12, we represented this accumulation of danger by assigning data points at the threshold temperature above which each metric becomes red (solid black line in fig. 1), and assuming that crossing each threshold cumulatively adds an equal probability (20%) of reaching a global ''aggregate'' dai threshold (see ref. 12 for a more complete description of methods). this aggregation method acts to average the thresholds of each impact metric, producing a median, 50th percentile threshold of 2.85degc above current temperatures, and a 90% confidence interval of [1.45degc, 4.65degc] (12). here, we label this cdf dai-o, because it is an average of impacts accumulating across all five metrics in fig. 1. we presented a ''traceable account'' (13) of our assumptions in producing this aggregation, and we believe a similar account should be made each time such a definition is created by any analyst, as others, such as wigley (14), have done.
what is The implication of beliefs in a higher power being responsible for weather extremes?
the implication of beliefs in a higher power being responsible for weather extremes (and any possible changes therein) is that people or governments are not perceived as having any control, influence or responsibility for that which is in god's hands
what are the example of beliefs in a higher power being responsible for weather extremes?
for example, among tibetans there is a belief that the mountain deities have been angered causing the climate to change76(see also ref. 133). donner132showed, that the perceived role of god in affecting the weather is common also among fijian peoples. even in western(ized) societies, extreme weather events are still often viewed as 'acts of god
when is public acceptance of climate policy can be undermined?
particularly, if climatic change is interpreted as god teaching people a lesson or punishing sinners, public acceptance of climate policy may be undermined
the implication of beliefs in a higher power being responsible for weather extremes (and any possible changes therein) is that people or governments are not perceived as having any control, influence or responsibility for that which is in god's hands. particularly, if climatic change is interpreted as god teaching people a lesson or punishing sinners, public acceptance of climate policy may be undermined. for example, among tibetans there is a belief that the mountain deities have been angered causing the climate to change76(see also ref. 133). donner132showed, that the perceived role of god in affecting the weather is common also among fijian peoples. even in western(ized) societies, extreme weather events are still often viewed as 'acts of god'.134similarly, participants of the results from the tuvaluan study explain their findings with the ''special relationship tuvalu shares with god and due to the promises of god made to noah in the bible121(p. 109). leduc80found through a carefully facilitated dialog between inuit and scientists that the inuit concept of 'sila'--inadequately translated as 'weather changes'--actually alluded to a cultural and spiritual dimension of the observed changes in weather and climate, namely nature's response to improper human action.80
What does the inefficiency mean for the costs?
this inefficiency is important enough to make the welfare costs of meeting the kyoto targets even larger than under an efficient unilateral action
What scenario have we analyzed?
we have analyzed a scenario where the use of cdm and ji credits is unrestricted for the ets sectors, but were the government purchases are restricted to the official plans
What seems to be the case in this scenario?
in this scenario, there still remains in most countries a large difference between the allowance price in the ets of 5.7 eur/tco2
non-ets sectors. this inefficiency is important enough to make the welfare costs of meeting the kyoto targets even larger than under an efficient unilateral action. all gains through international emissions trading are netted out by the distortions created between the ets and the non-ets sectors within each economy. making use of the option to buy cdm and ji credits, both by ets sectors and by governments indeed reduces the cost of meeting the european kyoto targets. we have analyzed a scenario where the use of cdm and ji credits is unrestricted for the ets sectors, but were the government purchases are restricted to the official plans. in this scenario, there still remains in most countries a large difference between the allowance price in the ets of 5.7 eur/tco2
what is the hysteresis loop?
the hysteresis loop is an important background information on the sensitivity of a climate model, but can the authors express more clearly what the benefit is for this particular study
what is the topic that is not being studied in the text?
as additional freshwater fluxes are not the topic of our present study
egu s9 the hysteresis loop is an important background information on the sensitivity of a climate model, but can the authors express more clearly what the benefit is for this particular study (section 5.2, pp. 1131)? this is also noted by the anonymous reviewer 3. as additional freshwater fluxes are not the topic of our present study, we chose to remove this section from the revised version of the manuscript. s10 it would be helpful for the comparison and discussion of the model results to also show the meridional overturning streamfunction of the control experiment lh_ctrl (figure 3). we agree with a. paul on this point. however, as the present-day climate is not our work, we provide this figure as an additional figure in an appendix. the scale of the figure used for lh_ctrl is the same as for the lgm, to allow an easy comparison between the two. we further modified the manuscript to comply with the technical suggestions provided.
How the estimated percentage that should be governed by the same climate profile that it has today is itself a misleading statistic.
in fact, our estimate that only 22% of the future landscape should be governed by the same climate profile that it has today is itself a misleading statistic
What would happen with a climate change according to Rehfeldt?
consequently, a change in climate should precipitate intraspecifically a wholesale redistribution of genetic variability across the landscape to realign genotypes with their climatic optima (rehfeldt et al. 1999, 2002, 2004
Regarding the global warming, what the Internation Journal of Plant Sciences predicts?
international journal of plant sciences predict a widespread disruption of native ecosystems from global warming
international journal of plant sciences predict a widespread disruption of native ecosystems from global warming. even though the vegetation may retain general characteristics of deserts, grasslands, or forests, the future distribution of climates in all but the forested mountain systems is likely to support plant associations that differ from those of today. in fact, our estimate that only 22% of the future landscape should be governed by the same climate profile that it has today is itself a misleading statistic. it is well documented for most species, but particularly for woody plants, that adaptation to a heterogeneous environment is expressed in clines of genetic variability that have been molded by climate. consequently, a change in climate should precipitate intraspecifically a wholesale redistribution of genetic variability across the landscape to realign genotypes with their climatic optima (rehfeldt et al. 1999, 2002, 2004). realignment will undoubtedly invoke evolutionary processes, particularly recombination, migration, and selection. there seems little doubt, therefore, that essentially all lands in the natural landscape will be affected by global warming as now portrayed. although consistent in direction, our results differ in detail from those of most preceding analyses. because our analyses
What is a triumphant example of a trial program implemented with the hope of changing diets and reducing the risk of obesity?
the north karelia program undertaken by pekka puska and colleagues
What elements were included in the Finnish and American programs?
the finnish and american programs included community mobilization, social marketing, school-based health education, worksite health promotion, screening and referral of those at high risk, education of health professionals, and direct education of adults
What were the key differences between the North Karelia and American programs?
the key differences were that the north karelia program also included mandated changes such as very strong anti-smoking legislation
many trial programs in schools, communities, and other settings have been implemented with the hope of changing diets and reducing the risk of obesity.63 a striking example of triumph is the north karelia program undertaken by pekka puska and colleagues, which was launched almost simultaneously with three major community heart disease prevention programs in the u.s.64the finnish and american programs included community mobilization, social marketing, school-based health education, worksite health promotion, screening and referral of those at high risk, education of health professionals, and direct education of adults.65the key differences were that the north karelia program also included mandated changes such as very strong anti-smoking legislation. the american programs had limited or no effect on diet, weight, and cardiovascular disease, while the north karelia program showed impressive changes.66the key lesson is that education alone has little impact while change in an environment generate better results.
Name one example of human modification of the earth
urbanization is one of the most evident examples of human modification of the earth
How much of earth's land area is accounted for by urban land?
urban land accounts for less than 2% of the earth's land area
What does landscape alteration through urbanizatino involve?
the landscape alteration through urbanization involves the transformation of the radiative and aerodynamic characteristics of the land surface and results in changes of the water cycle and planetary boundary layer
urbanization is one of the most evident examples of human modification of the earth. urban land accounts for less than 2% of the earth's land area, but this proportion is growing rapidly as more cities expand into natural ecosystems and agricultural areas. according to the united nations information service (unis), the proportion of the population living in urban areas is still expected to increase to 82% by 2030. however, our understanding of the role that urbanization plays in earth climate system processes is incomplete. recently, several issues arose that refer to the "urban environment  climate system" linkage, such as how land use and land cover are linked to climate and weather (shepherd and jin 2004). the landscape alteration through urbanization involves the transformation of the radiative and aerodynamic characteristics of the land surface and results in changes of the water cycle and planetary boundary layer. several studies focused on different aspects of
By the late 1980s, what precisely was becoming both a policy issue and increasingly political?
by the late 1980s, however, climate change was becoming both a policy issue and increasingly political
What year was the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) established?
in 1988, the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) was established and in 1990 it published the first of its regular and influential assessment reports to member governments
What year did the IPCC publish the first of its regular and i?nfluential Assessment Reports to member governments
in 1988, the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) was established and in 1990 it published the first of its regular and influential assessment reports to member governments
by the late 1980s, however, climate change was becoming both a policy issue and increasingly political. in 1988, the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) was established and in 1990 it published the first of its regular and influential assessment reports to member governments. in 1989, the first meeting of (22) heads of state to discuss climate change was held in the netherlands and various other major international summits that year also put it on the agenda. most oecd countries already had their first climate-change targets by 1990 (gupta, 2010), for instance the european community, as it was then, had pledged to stabilise its carbon dioxide emissions at 1990 levels by 2000. in 1992, virtually all countries signed up to the united nations framework convention on climate change (unfccc) at a major summit on the environment and development in rio de janeiro, with its objective to achieve 'stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system' (article 2). yet despite the obvious ecological risks of unmitigated climate change, the question remained whether the benefits of avoiding these risks would outweigh the perhaps substantial cost of cutting emissions.3this is the central question that 'to slow or not to slow' sought to tackle, by combining a simple model of social welfare and production with an externality from greenhouse gas emissions, in general equilibrium. this model took 'existing models and simplified them into a few equations that are easily understood and manipulated' (p. 920), something that has become a hallmark of nordhaus's work in the area. in summary, the main components of the model are: i a single equation of motion for the global mean temperature, which rises in response to the difference between the temperature that would be obtained in long-run equilibrium, given the current atmospheric stock of greenhouse gases, and the current temperature; ii an equation of motion for the atmospheric stock of greenhouse gases, in which some fraction of current emissions adds to the stock, at the same time as some fraction of the current stock 'decays' by diffusing into the deep ocean;4
They look at three scenarios, what are they?
they look at three scenarios: one in which the burden of the tax is fully passed forward to consumers in the form of higher energy and product prices, and two scenarios in which a share of the burden is borne by producers--that is, shareholders of firms
which policy is more progressive? how?
he then analyzes an option that couples this rebate with an adjustment to social security payments that benefits the lowest-income households. this makes the co2 policy more progressive. finally, he compares these options with a lump-sum redistribution of the co2 tax revenues and finds that this option is the most progressive of all. in summary, the literature indicates that it is important to look at both the direct effects of climate policies (i.e., the increase in the price of energy consumed by households) and the indirect effects (i.e., the increase in the costs of products and services for which energy is an input). studies also find that the way in which revenues from a co2 tax or auctioned allowances are returned to households is critically important in determining the incidence of the policy. although one study finds little difference in impacts on the mean household across regions
metcalf et al. (2008) assess the overall impacts of three recent co2 tax bills introduced in the u.s. congress. as part of their study, the authors calculate the tax expenditures as a fraction of income and report the results by annual income decile, under the assumption that revenues are returned in a lump-sum manner. they look at three scenarios: one in which the burden of the tax is fully passed forward to consumers in the form of higher energy and product prices, and two scenarios in which a share of the burden is borne by producers--that is, shareholders of firms.4 the tax alone, assuming full forward shifting, is highly regressive, but returning revenues lump sum makes it progressive; households in deciles 1 through 6 are actually better off with the policy, and only the two highest-income deciles experience a net loss. shifting the burden back to shareholders also reduces the regressivity of the tax, since shareholders are predominantly in the higher-income groups. metcalf (2009) assesses the impact of a carbon tax "swap"--a co2 tax coupled with a reduction in payroll taxes. specifically, he gives each worker in a household a tax credit equal to the first $560 of payroll taxes; this would be equivalent to exempting from the payroll tax the first $3,660 of wages per worker. metcalf finds that this option leads to an outcome that is approximately distributionally neutral. he then analyzes an option that couples this rebate with an adjustment to social security payments that benefits the lowest-income households. this makes the co2 policy more progressive. finally, he compares these options with a lump-sum redistribution of the co2 tax revenues and finds that this option is the most progressive of all. in summary, the literature indicates that it is important to look at both the direct effects of climate policies (i.e., the increase in the price of energy consumed by households) and the indirect effects (i.e., the increase in the costs of products and services for which energy is an input). studies also find that the way in which revenues from a co2 tax or auctioned allowances are returned to households is critically important in determining the incidence of the policy. although one study finds little difference in impacts on the mean household across regions, we
Analysis of lagged temperature was collect by
autocorrelations, and of lagged temperature extremes using scatter plots
Why is it not possible to use examine impacts on yield using analysis of weather fields alone
the precise timing of weather events relative to the development of the crop is a key determinant of yield wheeler et al., 2000 
why is there an  increases in the duration of high temperature events
increases in the duration of high temperature events can be explained by the changes in temperature means and, for the north, variances mentioned previously
analysis of lagged temperatures using autocorrelations, and of lagged temperature extremes using scatter plots (not shown), reveal that there is little change between the baseline and projected climates in the serial dependence of temperature. hence the increases in the duration of high temperature events can be explained by the changes in temperature means and, for the north, variances mentioned previously. it is not possible to examine impacts on yield using analysis of weather fields alone, since the precise timing of weather events relative to the development of the crop is a key determinant of yield wheeler et al., 2000 ). hence we now move on to look at output from the crop model. temperature stress near anthesis is significant in the climate projection, but not in the baseline simulation fig. 5 ). the differences between the sen-28 and tol-28 varieties are also significant. in particular, in the north sen-28 produces a decrease in mean yields, whilst tol-28 results in an increase in mean yields. yield increases in the tol-28 case are mediated via a change in duration (see below). regions where the variability of yield increases between the two time slices fig. 3 tend to have unrealistically low values of standard deviation in the baseline simulation fig. 2 ). hence another method for examining the interannual variability is needed; an indication of the extent of risk of crop failure induced by temperature stress is given
What are magnetic signatures examined for?
the magnetic signatures and crater retention ages of the 19 largest (>1000 km diameter) impact basins on mars are examined to constrain the history of the acquisition of crustal magnetization during the noachian era
What's the most likely time of the magnetization cessation?
poisson analysis shows that the most likely time of this magnetization cessation was 4.115-4.13 ga
What causes Rapid decrease in Martian crustal magnetization?
rapid decrease in martian crustal magnetization in the noachian era: implications for the dynamo and climate of early mars, geophys. res. lett. 35 l14203, doi:10.1029/2008gl03433
the magnetic signatures and crater retention ages of the 19 largest (>1000 km diameter) impact basins on mars are examined to constrain the history of the acquisition of crustal magnetization during the noachian era. the 5 most clearly impact-demagnetized basins are younger than the 14 basins within which lies substantially re-magnetized crust. poisson analysis shows that the most likely time of this magnetization cessation was 4.115-4.13 ga (model age) and that it occurred quickly, taking less than 20 ma. a global decrease in effective crustal magnetic susceptibility due, e.g., to a decrease in the rate of hydrothermal alteration, is one possible explanation. alternatively, the cessation of post-impact magnetization reflects the rapid death of the martian dynamo. citation: lillis, r. j., h. v. frey, and m. manga (2008), rapid decrease in martian crustal magnetization in the noachian era: implications for the dynamo and climate of early mars, geophys. res. lett. 35 l14203, doi:10.1029/2008gl034338.
What's the evidence found by the previous work by Pen~uelas Boada?
previous work on f. sylvatica in the montseny mountains by pen~uelas boada (2003) found evidence that this species may be in decline at low altitude range edge
What does the work presented here show?
the work that we present here shows that this decline is linked to a rapid and recent decrease in the growth of adult trees at the lower limit of this species' distribution
Can the long-term growth response of the forest interior based on temperature alone be predicted?
we cannot predict the long-term growth response of the forest interior based on temperature alone, but our results indicate that only a small increase in aridity may decrease growth of this species over much larger areas
previous work on f. sylvatica in the montseny mountains by pen~uelas boada (2003) found evidence that this species may be in decline at low altitude range edge. the work that we present here shows that this decline is linked to a rapid and recent decrease in the growth of adult trees at the lower limit of this species' distribution. growth at the lower limit of f. sylvatica in this region fell by 49% between 1975 and 2003 linked to recent climatic warming. our evidence suggests that increasing temperatures are exacerbating drought, with the result that the positive effects of years with high annual precipitation are declining. we cannot predict the long-term growth response of the forest interior based on temperature alone, but our results indicate that only a small increase in aridity may decrease growth of this species over much larger areas. determining whether more widespread growth decline of f. sylvatica is occurring at its southern range edge should be the focus of further research.
What the most studies express about residual damages?
ost studies express residual damages in some form, but not always in economic terms. for many of the optimal analyses, residual damage for the built environment tends to be quite small as most coastal infrastructure and people are concentrated in smaller areas that are more easily protected. they evaluate wetland losses in monetary terms (although this is of course controversial) and it is debatable if this captures the wetland value, especially under a scenario of considerable wetland decline and increasing scarcity
What is the twin challanges that Nicholls and Klein identified in your study of 2005?
nicholls and klein (2005) identified the twin challenges of maintaining human safety and sustaining coastal ecosystems as a major issue in a european context; this is also true globally. there is also a residual risk for infrastructure behind defences, and hence in the future we should expect occasional coastal disasters (as seen with new orleans and hurricane katrina in the usa in 2005, or cyclone nargis in myanmar in 2008), even if we adapt optimally
What is the UNFCCC study contained estimates of residual land loss per year?
he unfccc study contained estimates of residual land loss per year and residual flood damage (nicholls, 2007). this was estimated at about $8 billion per year, although without sea-level rise residual damages were estimated at about $6 billion per year. hence, the increase in residual damage is only about $1-2 billion per year. it should be further noted that subsequent experience with the diva tool on other projects suggests that these damage estimates may have been rather conservative, and should be roughly doubled, which raises the additional residual damage due to sea-level rise to $2-3 billion per year (with rounding
most studies express residual damages in some form, but not always in economic terms. for many of the optimal analyses, residual damage for the built environment tends to be quite small as most coastal infrastructure and people are concentrated in smaller areas that are more easily protected. they evaluate wetland losses in monetary terms (although this is of course controversial) and it is debatable if this captures the wetland value, especially under a scenario of considerable wetland decline and increasing scarcity. coastal ecosystem degradation will be significant due to sea-level rise and this will reinforced by protection based on dykes. nicholls and klein (2005) identified the twin challenges of maintaining human safety and sustaining coastal ecosystems as a major issue in a european context; this is also true globally. there is also a residual risk for infrastructure behind defences, and hence in the future we should expect occasional coastal disasters (as seen with new orleans and hurricane katrina in the usa in 2005, or cyclone nargis in myanmar in 2008), even if we adapt optimally. of course this is a product of climate variability and hence would be true without climate change - the rise in the mean sea level and possibly more intense storms will exacerbate this issue with the result that when floods occur they will be deeper, faster and more likely to cause significant damage to infrastructure and loss of life. infrastructure losses can be reduced by flood-proofing, while loss of life can be minimised by good warning and evacuation systems. the unfccc study contained estimates of residual land loss per year and residual flood damage (nicholls, 2007). this was estimated at about $8 billion per year, although without sea-level rise residual damages were estimated at about $6 billion per year. hence, the increase in residual damage is only about $1-2 billion per year. it should be further noted that subsequent experience with the diva tool on other projects suggests that these damage estimates may have been rather conservative, and should be roughly doubled, which raises the additional residual damage due to sea-level rise to $2-3 billion per year (with rounding). the unfccc study did not include residual damages on coastal ecosystems including coastal wetlands such as saltmarshes and mangroves. in many cases adaptation measures are available for such areas, from selective retreat to sediment management and nourishment. this is likely to raise the adaptation costs significantly.
What is the maximum pH level to maintain?
maintain the ph of the medium slightly alkaline (7.2 to 7.5
When will the anaerobic ponds should start?
anaerobic ponds should be started-up after the facultative ponds
What is the minimum pH level to maintain?
maintain the ph of the medium slightly alkaline (7.2 to 7.5
maintain the ph of the medium slightly alkaline (7.2 to 7.5). to facilitate the occurrence of these conditions, digested sludge from sewage treatment plants or from imhoff tanks, or limestone, vegetable ash or sodium bicarbonate can be added after 30 days of operation. anaerobic ponds should be started-up after the facultative ponds. this avoids the release of odours from the discharge of anaerobic effluents into an empty facultative pond. should the concentration of raw sewage be very low, or its flow 638 stabilisation ponds be small in the beginning of the operation of the system, it would be better to divert the raw sewage to the facultative pond, until a volumetric organic load of at least 0.1 kgbod/m3.d is reached in the anaerobic pond (mara et al, 1992). if there is more than one anaerobic pond in parallel, only one pond could be loaded, so that the load applied to this pond is the same as or higher than the minimum value of 0.1 kgbod/m3.d.
What lakes had decreased BCHAR in the late Holocene?
bchar at baker and trail lakes decreased in the late holocene
Baker, Slough Creek and Trail lakes showed sharply increasing ________ during the last few centuries?
during the last few centuries, baker, slough creek and trail lakes showed sharply increasing bchar
What lakes declined in BCHAR during the late Holocene?
but ap remained high during the late holocene while bchar at baker and trail lakes declined
baker, slough creek, cygnet and trail lakes are located in different environmental settings; however, they tended to show increasing bchar during the late glacial period and high bchar in the middle holocene. bchar at baker and trail lakes decreased in the late holocene, whereas that at cygnet and slough creek lakes remained high. during the last few centuries, baker, slough creek and trail lakes showed sharply increasing bchar. average ap percentages increased with bchar in this region from the late glacial period to the middle holocene, but ap remained high during the late holocene while bchar at baker and trail lakes declined.
Write down some of the recent extreme weather events.
extreme weather events--such as the cyclones that have struck coastal populations of bangladesh, myanmar, and vietnam in recent times--injure and kill
What do the Temperature extremes affect?
temperature extremes affect physiological functioning and accident-proneness
Who among the population is at greater risk of injury?
outdoors workers and those working in poorly ventilated hot conditions may be at increased risk of injury
extreme weather events--such as the cyclones that have struck coastal populations of bangladesh, myanmar, and vietnam in recent times--injure and kill. likewise, the hurricanes that frequently impinge on the caribbean cause injury, death, and distress (38). sea level may rise by one meter or more by the end of this century (39), which has significant implications for the one-third of the world's population who live within 60 miles of a shoreline and 13 of the world's 20 largest cities located on a coast. coastal inundation, more extensive episodes of flooding, increased frequency of increasingly severe storm surges (especially at times of high tide), and damage to coastal infrastructure (roads, housing, and sanitation systems) all pose direct risk of injury. temperature extremes affect physiological functioning and accident-proneness. outdoors workers and those working in poorly ventilated hot conditions may be at increased risk of injury (40).
How to reveal the sensitivity of this net tropical CO2 flux critically ?
critically, the sensitivity of this net tropical co2 flux is revealed by the iav of the co2 growth-rate, as this is known to be dominated by the response
What does the study explains that used for deriving multi-model emergent constraint?
our inspiration for deriving a multi-model emergent constraint comes from a recent study which showed a strong relationship between the contemporary temperature sensitivity of seasonal snow-cover and the magnitude of the snow-albedo feedback, across more than twenty gcms7
For what conversion multi-model emergent constraint can be used?
since the seasonal cycle of snow-cover can be estimated from observations, this model-derived relationship converts the contemporary observations to a constraint on the size of the snowalbedo feedback in the real climate system, for which there is no direct reliable measurement
our inspiration for deriving a multi-model emergent constraint comes from a recent study which showed a strong relationship between the contemporary temperature sensitivity of seasonal snow-cover and the magnitude of the snow-albedo feedback, across more than twenty gcms7. since the seasonal cycle of snow-cover can be estimated from observations, this model-derived relationship converts the contemporary observations to a constraint on the size of the snowalbedo feedback in the real climate system, for which there is no direct reliable measurement. emergent constraints of this type utilise the often bewildering spread amongst earth system model projections to reduce uncertainties in the sensitivities of the real earth system to anthropogenic forcing. they are distinct and complementary to bottom-up constraints arising from process-based studies. it made sense a priori to look for an emergent constraint linking the sensitivity of tropical land carbon to interannual variability (iav) in the growth-rate of atmospheric co2. tropical land carbon changes in response to climate through changes in the net land-atmosphere co2 flux moving in and out of this carbon store. critically, the sensitivity of this net tropical co2 flux is revealed by the iav of the co2 growth-rate, as this is known to be dominated by the response
What years was El Nino anticipated?
1997-98
Anticipating how climate will change can lead to better managements of what industries?
agriculture, water supplies, fisheries, and other resources
Through what means was the most recent El Nino predictions communicated?
media coverage, numerous workshops, and the internet
however, even at the early stages of forecast development, glantz (1979, 1986) questioned the assumption that a reliable forecast of an el nino event would necessarily yield significant societal benefit. in particular, he argued that various constraints might limit its usefulness for fisheries management. such constraints include: variability of el nino events' intensity and duration; difficulty in translating predictions of sea surface temperatures in the pacific ocean into forecasts of fish stocks; difficulty for policy makers and private decision makers in understanding probabilistic climate forecasts; insufficient lead time to undertake mitigating action; and socioeconomic and political pressures on regulators to appease the fisheries industry. still, efforts to realize various hypothesized potential benefits of el nino forecasts have increased throughout the 1990s, supported by claims that an ability to predict seasonal-to-interannual climate variability will result in benefits for society. for example: the provision of forecast information in a form that countries can use to benefit their societies is a welcome and exciting way that the wealthier countries of the world can help the poorer countries to help themselves. (world climate research programme 1997, 6-1). the ability to anticipate how climate will change from one year to the next will lead to better management of agriculture, water supplies, fisheries, and other resources. by incorporating climate predictions into management decisions, humankind is becoming better adapted to the irregular rhythms of climate. (national oceanographic and atmospheric administration (noaa) 1994, 23). further, growing expectations and the number of groups involved in producing forecasts have led to recent discussions of how best to provide forecasts, including even regulation of forecast dissemination (wmo, 1998). unlike the 1982-83 event, the 1997-98 el nino was anticipated, its evolution was monitored, and forecasts of its impacts were globally disseminated through media coverage, numerous workshops, and the internet.2
What is the results of obtained?
the results obtained for co2 fluxes from 42 land regions, using a time-dependent inverse model and surface co2 observations at 87 stations around the globe, have been discussed for the period 1994-2001. our results are overall in good agreement with previous estimates of global landatmosphere flux variability
What is the largest factor for enhanced?
the largest factor for enhanced co2 emission over a short period from the land regions (tropical, temperate, and boreal) seems to be related to the widespread biomass burning or forest fire events. the biome-bgc ecosystem model predicts less co2 flux variability than the tdi model
What is the study and principal component?
the detailed correlation study and principal component analysis suggest that the co2 flux anomaly in tropical regions (e.g., tropical south america, africa, tropical asia, and part of australia) are controlled dominantly by climate variability related to enso in agreement with numerous previous studies, followed by the iod influences. for europe and temperate south america, we found a significant relation between ao and co2 flux anomalies
the results obtained for co2 fluxes from 42 land regions, using a time-dependent inverse model and surface co2 observations at 87 stations around the globe, have been discussed for the period 1994-2001. our results are overall in good agreement with previous estimates of global landatmosphere flux variability. the global anomalous co2 flux from land biosphere to atmosphere during the 1997/1998 el nin~o period is as large as 84% of the total co2 emission from all industrial sources in that period according to our inversion. the regional co2 flux anomaly estimates exhibit significant correlation, with the air temperature and rainfall anomalies as the major drivers of heterotrophic respiration and photosynthesis, respectively. however, the largest factor for enhanced co2 emission over a short period from the land regions (tropical, temperate, and boreal) seems to be related to the widespread biomass burning or forest fire events. the biome-bgc ecosystem model predicts less co2 flux variability than the tdi model. this may be due to the lack of adequate processes to initiate biomass burning. the detailed correlation study and principal component analysis suggest that the co2 flux anomaly in tropical regions (e.g., tropical south america, africa, tropical asia, and part of australia) are controlled dominantly by climate variability related to enso in agreement with numerous previous studies, followed by the iod influences. for europe and temperate south america, we found a significant relation between ao and co2 flux anomalies.
how do the comprehensive ECV datasets provided vary?
the quality and applicability of the comprehensive ecv datasets provided by reanalysis vary geographically, with height, over time, and from one variable to another and can be difficult to quantify. for example, compo et al. (2011) use ensemble data assimilation to estimate uncertainty associated with flow-dependent predictability
is there a need for additional observation-related diagnostic information?
but this does not obviate the need for additional, observation-related diagnostic information that supplements gridded reanalysis datasets (dee et al. 2011
is thier a need to compare observations of ECV dataset?
comparison of an ecv dataset from reanalysis with an alternative derived directly from observations as outlined in the sidebar can provide reassurance as to the quality of both (simmons et al. 2010
the quality and applicability of the comprehensive ecv datasets provided by reanalysis vary geographically, with height, over time, and from one variable to another and can be difficult to quantify. for example, compo et al. (2011) use ensemble data assimilation to estimate uncertainty associated with flow-dependent predictability, but this does not obviate the need for additional, observation-related diagnostic information that supplements gridded reanalysis datasets (dee et al. 2011). comparison of an ecv dataset from reanalysis with an alternative derived directly from observations as outlined in the sidebar can provide reassurance as to the quality of both (simmons et al. 2010).
What does the valley attact?
attracts few tourists, and lags surrounding areas in development
what is an example of climate-related risk?
eco himal has built two bridges in the valley in 1997 and 1998
where will the project relocate?
dumji house (centre for an important festival
this rural development project targets the thame valley, in the everest region. due to its location away from the route to the everest base camp, this valley attracts few tourists, and lags surrounding areas in development. an interesting example of vulnerability to climate-related risk: " eco himal has built two bridges in the valley in 1997 and 1998. both of them were designed according to traditional local conceptions. unfortunately, they did not survive the unusually intensive monsoon in 1998. therefore, it is essential to struggle for a long-lasting solution ". the project document mentions " weather " as an external factor, but does not discuss how to minimize those risks to the project and its development goals. however, it does pay attention to erosion and landslide risks. for instance, the project will relocate the dumji house (centre for an important festival) in the light of high landslide risks in an erosion-prone area. d.2.19 ifad western uplands poverty alleviation project42
What is CMIP?
since 1995, the coupled model intercomparison project (cmip) has coordinated climate model experiments involving multiple international modeling teams. through cmip, climate modelers and scientists from around the world have analyzed and compared state-of-the-art climate model simulations to gain insights into the processes, mechanisms, and consequences of climate variability and climate change
How to experiment the CMIP model?
his has led to a better understanding of past, present, and future climate, and cmip model experiments have routinely been the basis for future climate change assessments made by the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) [e.g., ipcc, 2013, and references therein
What is CMIP5 analysis?
though analyses of the cmip5 data will continue for at least several more years, science gaps and outstanding science questions have prompted preparations for the sixth phase of the project (cmip6). this brief overview of the initial proposed design of cmip6 is meant to inform interested research communities and to encourage discussion and feedback for consideration in the evolving experiment design
since 1995, the coupled model intercomparison project (cmip) has coordinated climate model experiments involving multiple international modeling teams. through cmip, climate modelers and scientists from around the world have analyzed and compared state-of-the-art climate model simulations to gain insights into the processes, mechanisms, and consequences of climate variability and climate change. this has led to a better understanding of past, present, and future climate, and cmip model experiments have routinely been the basis for future climate change assessments made by the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) [e.g., ipcc, 2013, and references therein]. cmip has developed in phases, with the simulations of the fifth phase, cmip5, now mostly completed. though analyses of the cmip5 data will continue for at least several more years, science gaps and outstanding science questions have prompted preparations for the sixth phase of the project (cmip6). this brief overview of the initial proposed design of cmip6 is meant to inform interested research communities and to encourage discussion and feedback for consideration in the evolving experiment design (see figure 1). a more complete description and further information are available at http://www .wcrp climate .org/ index .php/ wgcm -cmip/ wgcm -cmip6 and in the additional supporting information in the online version of this article.
What rights are of the biggest concern to indigenous peoples when it comes to addressing climate change?
most of the concerns raised by indigenous peoples relate to the right to participate in decision-making and implementation, rights that are clearly recognized in international legal instruments such as the un declaration on the rights of indigenous peoples and agenda 21
Since when have indigenous people participated in UNFCCC meetings?
indigenous peoples have participated in the unfccc meetings since 2000
To what capacity are indigenous people involved in the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD)?
the convention on biological diversity (cbd) where the international indigenous forum on biodiversity (iifb) is an advisory body to the convention
indigenous peoples recognise the importance and urgency of developing policies and schemes to address climate change. most of the concerns raised by indigenous peoples relate to the right to participate in decision-making and implementation, rights that are clearly recognized in international legal instruments such as the un declaration on the rights of indigenous peoples and agenda 21. despite the fact that climate changes are impacting intensely on indigenous peoples, they are very rarely considered in public discourses on climate change. in the national, regional and international processes, such as the un framework convention on climate change (unfccc), where climate change mitigation policies are discussed, negotiated and designed, indigenous peoples have found it very difficult to get their voices heard and their concerns taken into consideration. indigenous peoples have participated in the unfccc meetings since 2000. however, unlike the convention on biological diversity (cbd) where the international indigenous forum on biodiversity (iifb) is an advisory body to the convention, the unfccc is not providing any similar space for indigenous peoples.
What conditions are essential for anaerobic ponds?
anaerobic ponds constitute an alternative form of treatment, in which the existence of strictly anaerobic conditions is essential
What have anaerobic ponds been used for?
anaerobic ponds have been used for the treatment of domestic sewage and organic industrial wastewaters, with high bod concentrations, such as slaughterhouses, piggery wastes, dairies, beverage industries, etc
How deep are anaerobic ponds?
anaerobic ponds are usually deep, of the order of 3 m to 5 m
anaerobic ponds constitute an alternative form of treatment, in which the existence of strictly anaerobic conditions is essential. this is reached through the application of a high bod load per unit of volume of the pond, which causes the oxygen consumption rate to be several times greater than the oxygen production rate. in the oxygen balance, the production by photosynthesis and atmospheric reaeration are, in this case, negligible. anaerobic ponds have been used for the treatment of domestic sewage and organic industrial wastewaters, with high bod concentrations, such as slaughterhouses, piggery wastes, dairies, beverage industries, etc. the conversion of organic matter under anaerobic conditions is slow, owing to the slow growth rate of anaerobic bacteria. this results from the fact that the anaerobic reactions generate less energy than the aerobic reactions for the stabilisation of organic matter. the temperature of the medium has a great influence in the biomass reproduction and substrate conversion rates, which makes warm-climate regions to be favourable for the utilisation of this type of pond. anaerobic ponds are usually deep, of the order of 3 m to 5 m. the depth is important, in order to reduce the possibility of the penetration of the oxygen produced in the surface to the other layers. because these ponds are deeper, the land requirements are correspondingly small.
What did the researchers ask?
researchers have questioned about the necessity of pooling layers
What is a CNN exit?
the output of a cnn is a vector of q probability units (class scores
Sliding convolutional kernels across the entrance will produce what?
sliding convolutional kernels across all the input will produce larger outputs for certain sub-regions than for others
a deep cnn is typically comprised of several convolutional layers followed by a small amount of fully connected layers. in between two successive convolutional layers, subsampling operation (e.g. max pooling, mean pooling) is performed typically. researchers have questioned about the necessity of pooling layers, and argue that they can be simply replaced by convolutional layer with increased strides, thus simplify the network structure in either case, the inputs of a cnn is (m,n,p) images, where m and n is the width and height of an image in pixel, p is the number of color channel of each pixel. the output of a cnn is a vector of q probability units (class scores), corresponding to the number of categories to be classified (e.g. for binary classifier q =2). the convolutional layers perform convolution operation between kernels and the input images (or feature maps from previous layer). typically, a convolutional layer contains k filters (kernels) with the size (i,j,p) where i,j is the width and height of the filter. the filters are usually smaller than the width m and height n of input image. p always equal to the number of color channel of input image (e.g. a color image has three channels: red, green, and blue). each of the filters is independently convolved with the input images (or feature maps from previous layer) followed by non-linear transformation and generates k feature maps, which serve as inputs for the next layer. in the process of convolution, a dot product is computed between the entry of filter and the local region that it is connected to in the input image (or feature map from previous layer). the parameters of convolutional layers are these learnable filters. sliding convolutional kernels across all the input will produce larger outputs for certain sub-regions than for others. this allows features to be extracted from inputs and preserved in the feature maps regardless of where the feature is located in
What kind of limitations should be noted?
several limitations should be noted. the first is that although local message framing appeared to influence climate change engagement, the simplicity of the messages may have attenuated its influence. ideally, local messages would be even more idiosyncratic to the particular region, and would be presented in more captivating media such as art and video
What will happen If some participants did not follow instructions and completed the questionnaires before reading the messages?
if some participants did not follow instructions and completed the questionnaires before reading the messages, this would have increased error rather than bias (i.e., the framing effects would be lessened, and engagement would appear similar to those in the control condition
What kind instruction were provided to the participant?
participants were provided with clear instructions for the sequence of steps in participation, and all materials were stapled together in the intended order of completion
several limitations should be noted. the first is that although local message framing appeared to influence climate change engagement, the simplicity of the messages may have attenuated its influence. ideally, local messages would be even more idiosyncratic to the particular region, and would be presented in more captivating media such as art and video. nevertheless, results show that incorporating an element of "localness" into a climate change message appears to be a worthwhile strategy. a second potential problem is that we could not ensure that participants read the information and completed the questionnaires in the predetermined order. if some participants did not follow instructions and completed the questionnaires before reading the messages, this would have increased error rather than bias (i.e., the framing effects would be lessened, and engagement would appear similar to those in the control condition). however, if participants had read the debriefing form first, social desirability effects may have emerged. nevertheless, the clarity of instructions and the arrangement of materials may have prevented this possibility. participants were provided with clear instructions for the sequence of steps in participation, and all materials were stapled together in the intended order of completion. a third problem is that the number of deniers in our sample (approximately 6%) was too few to evaluate their responses to the messages in comparison with the rest of the sample. furthermore, this small percentage is less than the canadian national average of about 14% (borick, lachapelle, rabe, 2011).2 ultimately, the primary goal of the present study was to examine how to engage individuals in climate change issues. how to reform the beliefs of deniers remains an important topic for future research (see, for example, dunlap mccright, 2011; norgaard, 2011).
What the simulations shows about the annual means?
they showed that annual means, maximums and minimums all tended to increase
With what the public would have to be prepared?
downstream communities would have to adapt to more frequent periods of spill
What are the conclusions about the river flow?
these results indicate that an increase in the frequency of shortages in river flow would not be expected
potential effects on interannual variability and extremes of river discharge were examined for the scaled simulations. they showed that annual means, maximums and minimums all tended to increase. the interannual fluctuation around the long-term mean was some +-20% for mean annual flow, which is similar to what observations from the present climate show. these results indicate that an increase in the frequency of shortages in river flow would not be expected. on the contrary, according to these simulations, the reservoir system along the river would likely be required to spill more water than it presently does. this indicates that downstream communities would have to adapt to more frequent periods of spill (high water in the river) under the projected future.
how section 4 result is generalized?
we generalize the result of section 4 by incorporating the effects of fast waves to the theory
what is considered in the section 5.1?
we consider the important example of the stochastic model for the truncated barotropic equations in (3.6) in the absence of mean flow and topography, u 0, ^ hk 0, but with beta effect
what isb beta affect?
beta effect, i.e., the dispersive terms defined by k in (3.8) and associated with rossby wave propagation; see pedlosky these beta terms induce fast-wave effects on both the climate and the unresolved variables, and we show how to handle these effects in order to get closed equations for the climate variables alone for small e by comparing with the case without beta effect, we demonstrate that the beta effect
in this section, we generalize the result of section 4 by incorporating the effects of fast waves to the theory. first in section 5.1, we consider the important example of the stochastic model for the truncated barotropic equations in (3.6) in the absence of mean flow and topography, u 0, ^ hk 0, but with beta effect, i.e., the dispersive terms defined by k in (3.8) and associated with rossby wave propagation; see pedlosky these beta terms induce fast-wave effects on both the climate and the unresolved variables, and we show how to handle these effects in order to get closed equations for the climate variables alone for small e by comparing with the case without beta effect, we demonstrate that the beta effect
What are some ways the costs of handling climate change might be shared globally?
first, it might be proposed that we discount the climate burden to be shouldered by wealthy, low-emitting countries. the idea would be to introduce differentiated responsibility amongst the developed world by embracing a modest 'contribution to problem' principle. second, we might instead opt to 'outsmart' the questioner by insisting on burden sharing in proportion to capacity at the cost of apparent unfairness to the responsible rich
Is 'ability to pay' a reasonable consideration for managing climate change?
suppose that climate change was brought about by a very small group of countries that ignored cleaner methods of industrialisation. suppose also that the pattern of wealth was similar to that witnessed today except that there was a large group of wealthy, yet low emitting, countries. according to the 'ability to pay' approach, the responsibilities of developed countries to manage climate change would be the same in both scenarios regardless of the issue of which countries were actually responsible for climate change
Does a wealthier country have automatic responsibility for participation?
this is because being wealthier than others would not confer any special responsibility on a country if it only has enough resources to meet the basic needs of its own citizens
ability to pay according to the next defence of common but differentiated responsibility, developed countries should shoulder the burden of climate justice as a result of their greater wealth and capacity to act. they should, that is, cover the cost of robust policies of mitigation and adaptation in proportion to their income or wealth. it is irrelevant, so the argument goes, that we can assign countries varying levels of responsibility for the emergence of the climate problem since justice concerns the efficient achievement of desirable outcomes and is essentially blind to the historical origins of human problems. as henry shue (1999, p. 537) explains, 'among a number of parties, all of whom are bound to contribute to some endeavour, the parties who have the most resources should contribute the most to the endeavour'. one obvious objection to 'ability to pay' is that, in some circumstances, possessing a comparatively high standard of living is not an appropriate basis to calculate a country's ethical obligations. this is because being wealthier than others would not confer any special responsibility on a country if it only has enough resources to meet the basic needs of its own citizens. while in practice this objection does not apply to developed countries on any useful standard of basic needs, it does suggests that shue's articulation of the 'ability to pay' approach should be amended. it is not 'the nations with the most resources' that should lead the way in climate policy but rather 'the nations with excess capacity'. the claim then is that the developed countries are rich enough to divert some of their resources to combat dangerous climate change so they should do so up to the point where this does not compromise the lives of their citizens as measured by some conception of human well-being. one problem with the 'ability to pay' approach is revealed by the following thought experiment. suppose that climate change was brought about by a very small group of countries that ignored cleaner methods of industrialisation. suppose also that the pattern of wealth was similar to that witnessed today except that there was a large group of wealthy, yet low emitting, countries. according to the 'ability to pay' approach, the responsibilities of developed countries to manage climate change would be the same in both scenarios regardless of the issue of which countries were actually responsible for climate change. but can historical responsibility for a harmful outcome really be irrelevant to the task of funding the management of that outcome? there appear to be two main responses to this question. first, it might be proposed that we discount the climate burden to be shouldered by wealthy, low-emitting countries. the idea would be to introduce differentiated responsibility amongst the developed world by embracing a modest 'contribution to problem' principle. second, we might instead opt to 'outsmart' the questioner by insisting on burden sharing in proportion to capacity at the cost of apparent unfairness to the responsible rich. there are even more troubling scenarios. imagine that advances in climate science revealed that there was a much greater connection between the environmental politics 561
What does the hydrologic regime change with?
the hydrologic regime changes with temperature
What results in a shift in peak river runoff?
in a warmer world, less winter precipitation falls as snow and the melting of winter snow occurs earlier in spring, resulting in a shift in peak river runoff
What does a recent detection study of change in the hydrological cycle of the western US attribute to?
a recent detection study of change in the hydrological cycle of the western us attributes up to 60% of observed climate related trends in river flow, winter air temperature, and snow pack over the 1950-1999 period in the region to human influence.63
in climates where seasonal snow storage and melting plays a significant role in annual runoff, the hydrologic regime changes with temperature. in a warmer world, less winter precipitation falls as snow and the melting of winter snow occurs earlier in spring, resulting in a shift in peak river runoff to winter and early spring. this has been observed in the western us60and in canada.61the observed trends toward earlier 'center' timing of snowmelt-driven streamflows in the western us since 1950 are detectably different from natural variability.62a recent detection study of change in the hydrological cycle of the western us attributes up to 60% of observed climate related trends in river flow, winter air temperature, and snow pack over the 1950-1999 period in the region to human influence.63
What is High Resolution crucial for?
high resolution is crucial for representing key processes with realism, but is also extremely computationally intensive
What will progress in research and technology lead to?
progress in research and technology over time will presumably improve this situation somewhat, but the challenge is great
What is most relevant in terms of relevant spatial and temporal scales for resource management or ecosystem process?
the most relevant spatial and temporal scales for resource management or ecosystem processes are those for which the obstacles to prediction are the greatest
spatio-temporal resolution is clearly part of the story. high resolution is crucial for representing key processes with realism, but is also extremely computationally intensive. and the most relevant spatial and temporal scales for resource management or ecosystem processes are those for which the obstacles to prediction are the greatest.31various downscaling techniques, while important for many applications, offer no free way out.32,33 other dimensions that compete for computing resources include model complexity (biogeochemistry, aerosols, land-use change, ice sheet dynamics, etc.), integration length, ensemble size, and specification of initial conditions. progress in research and technology over time will presumably improve this situation somewhat, but the challenge is great:
Which case best show the intimacy of relationship between culture and climate.
the intimacy of relationship between culture and climate is nowhere better illustrated than in the case of egypt and the nile
Who where the first 2 people to classify climate?
the earliest attempts at climatic classification by herodotus (5th century bc) and ptolemy (2nd century ad) also revealed the precariousness of our relationship with climate
Could the climate explain collapse of civilizations?
on the other hand, the variability of climate has also been invoked to help explain the collapse of civilisations (e.g. diamond, 2005; costanza et al., 2007
climate and culture climate has always carried a precarious and ambiguous meaning for humans. our physical evolution was forged through amplitudes of climate change through dangerous encounters with climate unknown to modern humans, while our cultural evolution has involved a variety of ways of mythologizing and taming the outworkings of nature's climate. the trail of the flood-myth, for example, can be traced through many early cultures, most notably in the mono-theistic tradition of the biblical flood of judaism, christianity and islam. the intimacy of relationship between culture and climate is nowhere better illustrated than in the case of egypt and the nile. the climatic pulsing of the river through annual and seven-yearly cycles gave - and still gives life, sustenance, shape and meaning to nilotic cultures. the earliest attempts at climatic classification by herodotus (5th century bc) and ptolemy (2nd century ad) also revealed the precariousness of our relationship with climate. whilst the greeks inhabited the forgiving temperate zone of the eastern mediterranean, the frigid and torrid 'klima' of the north and the south were realms which gifted the legacy of danger, or even death. climate also yields tangible, material, yet unpredictable, benefits for all human cultures. the unpredictability of these benefits is a powerful driver of human innovation, since new technologies, practises and systems are created to build social resilience in the face of a capricious climate (haberle lusty, 2000; tainter, 2000). on the other hand, the variability of climate has also been invoked to help explain the collapse of civilisations (e.g. diamond, 2005; costanza et al., 2007). yet we now know that humans can accommodate a much greater range of the available climatic space than the greeks and early medievals supposed. sophisticated human
What is the intention of this article?
provide a methodological approach
the main limitation in our projections refers to the accuracy of georeferencing maps of sandfly distribution. we have chosen an algorithm that is capable to cope with this source of uncertainty expectedly, improved model projections would arise with geographically more accurate point data. however, the intension of this paper is rather to provide a methodological approach. recently, it has been pointed out that pixel values of predictor variables in close proximity will be highly correlated, which would reduce the effect of inaccuracy in spatial data set of species occurrences furthermore, when comparing the reports for cases of autochthonous leishmaniasis in regions that were considered as being non-endemic (e.g. with documented presence records of sandflies leads to the assumption that sandflies may be wider distributed than realised. however, as it is unknown which species acted in such regions as vectors, only documented presence records at the species level of the phlebotomus spp. can reasonably be integrated. assuming climate is generally considered to be suitable for the permanent establishment of populations, the presence of phlebotomus spp. is additionally dependent on land cover e.g. forest, agriculture and urban areas [75,76]. in this study, we integrated altitudinal structures such as river valleys and mountain ridges in least-cost path analysis. in order to recalculate wind speed we additionally integrated land cover data as surface roughness to decelerate near-surface wind speed. climate change may contribute to alterations in land use and cover, due to warming, changes of precipitation regimes and increases of climatic extreme events such as droughts or floods. this is likely to affect the spatial structure of agricultural systems. in addition to direct climatic impacts, these changes of land cover will additionally affect the spread and distribution of sandflies. however, land cover and land use changes depend on complex processes of decision making under specific political and economical conditions and are hence difficult to project. therefore land use and cover were considered to remain constant in this study. in general, biotic interactions such as predation or competition are crucial for species distribution the modifications of the ecological links or networks of an organism by climate change can substantially alter the realised niche of species population in germany, p. perniciosus and p. mascittii do not co-exist at the same locations this can be a result of diverging invasion pathways or of competitive exclusion in the respective regions. unfortunately, knowledge on biotic interactions of sandflies is scarce. furthermore, one has to bear in mind that presence of phlebotomine sandflies is dependent on humans and their social factors, for instance living conditions [80,81]. however, all these factors become more important for species distribution on smaller spatial scales than applied in this study [82,83]. concerning the least-cost analysis for species movement it has to be noted that the attributed costs are based on assumptions and/or preliminary observations and hence may not include all of the relevant factors [55,61]. for instance, it is questionable whether humans assist in the spread of sandflies. nevertheless, in comparison to mosquitoes, direct human effects on dispersal are of minor importance. furthermore, the species movement behaviour must not necessarily be optimal or well adapted in human-modified landscapes especially dispersal behaviour of individuals between populations may differ from the general tendency at the metapopulation level besides the effects of changes in long-term climatic conditions used in this study, extreme weather events are expected to increase in europe this will influence organisms and ecosystems remarkably [85,86]. it has been shown that climatic variability in general and extreme weather events such as floods particularly affect sandfly occurrences in order to integrate weather extremes in a satisfactory quality within climatic projections, a further downscaling of their spatial resolution to the local scale is required this is the only way to account for the contribution of weather extremes on disease vectors in risk analysis.
When do problems arise between state and federal policies? Cite two regulatory contexts.
problems arise when state and federal policies overlap. two regulatory contexts stand out: renewable electricity and clean energy standards; and automobile fuel-economy standards
What are the consequences of problematic interactions?
because of problematic interactions, statelevel efforts may fail to reduce greenhouse gas emissions nationally and may reduce the cost effectiveness of the overall national effort
How can the difficulties from overlapping regulations  be avoided?
the difficulties from overlapping regulations can be avoided through price-based as opposed to quantity-based federal policy
the coexistence of state and federal policies raises questions about their interactions. problems arise when state and federal policies overlap. two regulatory contexts stand out: renewable electricity and clean energy standards; and automobile fuel-economy standards. because of problematic interactions, statelevel efforts may fail to reduce greenhouse gas emissions nationally and may reduce the cost effectiveness of the overall national effort. the difficulties from overlapping regulations can be avoided through price-based as opposed to quantity-based federal policy. at the same time, the possibility exists of some specific positive interactions between state and federal climate policies. and more broadly, rationales exist for subnational actions when national policy is politically infeasible. references
What are tropical cyclones?
tropical cyclones are rapid rotating weather systems that are characterized by low pressure center with strong wind circulating the center and warm temperature core in upper troposphere
How accurate are deep CNN findings?
our deep cnns achieved nearly perfect (99%) classification accuracy
How easy is it to observe a tropical cyclone?
tropical cyclone features are rather well defined, as can be seen from the distinct low pressure center and spiral flow of wind vectors around the center. these clear and distinct characteristics make tropical cyclone pattern relatively easy to learn and represent within cnn
tropical cyclones are rapid rotating weather systems that are characterized by low pressure center with strong wind circulating the center and warm temperature core in upper troposphere. figure 1 shows examples of tropical cyclones simulated in climate models, that are correctly classified by deep cnn (warm core structure is not shown in this figure). tropical cyclone features are rather well defined, as can be seen from the distinct low pressure center and spiral flow of wind vectors around the center. these clear and distinct characteristics make tropical cyclone pattern relatively easy to learn and represent within cnn. our deep cnns achieved nearly perfect (99%) classification accuracy. figure 2 shows examples of tropical cyclones that are mis-classified. after carefully examining these events, we believe they are weak systems (e.g. tropical depression), whose low pressure center and spiral structure of wind have not fully developed. the pressure distribution shows a large low pressure area without a clear minimum. therefore, our deep cnn does not label them as tropical cyclones. table 5: confusion matrix for tropical cyclone classification
Where is the population that contributes to the treatment plant?
the population that contributes to the treatment plant is that situated inside the design area served by the sewerage system
What is the ratio of coverage index?
this ratio (population served/total population) is called the coverage index
What does the coverage index determine and estimate?
this index can be determined (current conditions) or estimated (future conditions), such as to allow the calculation of the design flow
the population that contributes to the treatment plant is that situated inside the design area served by the sewerage system. however, the design population is only a certain fraction of the total population in this area, because maybe not all the population is connected to the sewerage system. this ratio (population served/total population) is called the coverage index this index can be determined (current conditions) or estimated (future conditions), such as to allow the calculation of the design flow. in the final years of the planning horizon, it is expected that the coverage will be close to 100%, reflecting the improvement and expansion in the collection network. the coverage index is a function of the following aspects:
Define yellow fever?
the endemic zone of yellow fever in africa extends from the southern borders of the sahara to angola
Where did the disease occur widely?
a. the disease occurs in a wide variety of habitats and its epidemiology is correspondingly complex
define epizootics?
the broad picture is of wandering epizootics that move slowly across vast areas of the continent, generating sporadic human cases in woodland regions and sparking interhuman transmission in heavily populated areas where peridomestic aedes species are common
africa. the endemic zone of yellow fever in africa extends from the southern borders of the sahara to angola. the disease occurs in a wide variety of habitats and its epidemiology is correspondingly complex. the broad picture is of wandering epizootics that move slowly across vast areas of the continent, generating sporadic human cases in woodland regions and sparking interhuman transmission in heavily populated areas where peridomestic aedes species are common. in the early twentieth century major epidemics were associated with the rapid growth of townships, particularly in west africa. from the 1940s onward, mass immunization in territories administered by france (benin, burkina faso, cameroon, chad,
What happened to the alternative hypothesis of changing wind disturbances in warmer and drier conditions?
had to be rejected
to set up our quantitative models of disturbance change we extracted the influence of temperatureand water-related drivers on disturbance along each pathway from the analyzed literature using ordinal response categories (+ positive, neutral or mixed, negative) (table s2, fig. 3). this information was subsequently aggregated using the likelihood scale employed by the ipcc 7: if more than 50% of the evidence pointed towards an effect for a given pathway we assumed it to be more likely than not, while at >66% it was assumed likely, and at >90% very likely (table s2). based on this qualitative analysis we found support for the null hypothesis of unchanged disturbance regimes under changing temperature and water regimes only for three out of the 12 climate change - disturbance agent combinations considered. specifically, changes in disturbances from drought and snow ice could not be substantiated from the literature under warmer and wetter conditions. also, the alternative hypothesis of changing wind disturbances under warmer and drier conditions had to be rejected. for eight out of the 12 combinations, however, an increase in disturbances has to be expected under climate
What is presented?
we present the marginal posterior distribution for all parameters included in the uncertainty analysis with our baseline prior distributions (as described in section 2c
What is assumed in the baseline case?
in the baseline case, we assume a gaussian likelihood function
In what regions are the observations for heat content sparse?
the observations for heat content are sparse in some regions of the earth, especially in the southern ocean, and there is considerable uncertainty in the choice of an interpolation scheme between data points [see gregory et al. (2004) for a thorough discussion of this issue
we present the marginal posterior distribution for all parameters included in the uncertainty analysis with our baseline prior distributions (as described in section 2c). in the baseline case, we assume a gaussian likelihood function. the variance-covariance matrix of the likelihood function is estimated as described in section 2b. for the baseline case, we scaled the observational standard deviation of the ocean heat content data by a factor of 1.5. we believe this is justified because in the calculation of the observational error not all types of uncertainties are considered (levitus et al. 2005). the observations for heat content are sparse in some regions of the earth, especially in the southern ocean, and there is considerable uncertainty in the choice of an interpolation scheme between data points [see gregory et al. (2004) for a thorough discussion of this issue]. also, for the baseline case, we scaled our estimate of the autocovariance in the climate variability for ocean heat content by a factor of 1.25 to account for the fact that there is some variance in the control runs of hadcm3 for ocean heat content and that complex climate models tend to underestimate the climate variability of ocean heat content [collins et al. (2001); gent and danabasoglu (2004) for a detailed discussion of this point with respect to the community climate model version 2]. for the surface temperature data, no such scaling was introduced since these observations are more reliable
What percentage of respondents said that their sub-region's climate was similar to that of others close by?
fewer than half our respondents (43%) said that their sub-region's climate was similar to that of others close by
What form of daily weather records did all interviewed farmers keep?
another indication of farmers' concerns about sub-regional variation was that all farmers interviewed and in the focus groups maintained daily precipitation records
What percentage of respondents did not change their decisions after hearing the Nina forecase for 1998/99?
most respondents (58%) did not change their decisions after hearing the nina forecast for 1998/99
most respondents (58%) did not change their decisions after hearing the nina forecast for 1998/99, which suggests that small producers of this region still have concerns about using climate forecasts, despite the favorable impressions left by the 1997/98 nino forecast. reasons respondents cited for their reluctance relate to forecasts' spatial or temporal resolution. forecasts cover seasonal conditions in a region rather than conditions in a farmer's specific location or those during shorter, critical time intervals (e.g., maize silking). users' interests in the micro-climates of the region are a reflection of their concerns about forecasts' spatial resolution. fewer than half our respondents (43%) said that their sub-region's climate was similar to that of others close by. another indication of farmers' concerns about sub-regional variation was that all farmers interviewed and in the focus groups maintained daily precipitation records, some extending back decades, as an attempt to understand 'one's own climate,' because it may be different from others'.4
What is paleoflood hydrology? is the study of floods before instrumental recording or in uncalibrated basins
paleoflood hydrology is the study of floods prior to the instrumental record or in ungaged basins
How can the study of landforms, sediments and botanical evidence be used? Can be used to infer information about previous floods
the study of landforms, sediments, and botanical evidence can be used to infer information about previous flooding
Which indicators are used to reconstruct individual flood events? Paleostage indicators (PSIs)
for reconstructing individual flood events, paleostage indicators (psis) are used to estimate the maximum flood stage that has occurred on a river
paleoflood hydrology is the study of floods prior to the instrumental record or in ungaged basins (costa, 1987; baker, 2008). the study of landforms, sediments, and botanical evidence can be used to infer information about previous flooding. flood reconstructions can be used to improve flood-frequency estimates, but more importantly, to provide information on the magnitude and age of the largest flood(s) in a particular basin and for hydrologically homogeneous geographical regions (jarrett and england, 2002). for reconstructing individual flood events, paleostage indicators (psis) are used to estimate the maximum flood stage that has occurred on a river. paleoflood hydrologists then translate the stage estimate to a flow estimate using standard hydraulic methods that are also used for recent floods (webb and jarrett, 2002) and date the event. the most commonly used psis are slackwater deposits of coarse-grained sediments, deposited in areas of flood inundation where velocities are minimal (baker, 2008; jarrett and england, 2002). flood bars, eroded geologic features, and modifications of terraces and flood plains are also used as psis. some of these psis can be preserved for tens of thousands of years, although most paleoflood reconstructions are made for the holocene. radiocarbon dating is commonly used to estimate the age of psis (for example, to within \\x040 to 100 years for a flood that occurred during the holocene). a minimum age of the sediment deposit can also be estimated by the age of any trees growing on them. in some situations, the thickness of sediment layers and the particle size contained in them can also provide clues to previous flood magnitudes. the layering itself may provide information about the frequency of flood events. the maximum flood stage estimated from psis is used to estimate the maximum flow using indirect-flow estimation techniques. these techniques are sometimes used to estimate flood flows in the systematic record, except that instead of psis, high water marks are taken from indicators such as disturbed grass, mud, silt, seed lines, and other flood-carried debris. hydraulic principles are used to estimate flow rates based on the high water indicated by physical evidence and on estimated channel properties. to estimate channel properties for paleofloods, the river channel at the time of the paleoflood must be essentially the same as the modern river channel. consequently, paleoflood reconstruction is most appropriate for bedrock channels that remain stable over time. these techniques are not suitable for unstable channels. using modern floods, jarrett and england (2002) compared the maximum stage estimated from flood bars and slack water deposits to high water marks traditionally used by hydrologists to estimate flood stage. while there were some differences between the psis and the high water marks, jarrett and england concluded that flood bars and slack water deposits generally provide a reliable and accurate indication of the maximum height of the flood. as pointed out by hirschboeck (2003), paleoflood indicators based on flood deposits provide direct physical evidence of the occurrence of past floods. the evidence is not filtered through a biological response, such as tree-ring growth. nevertheless, tree-growth responses to flood events can also be used to document flood stages. common responses include the formation of scars, sprouting from tilted stems, and eccentric ring growth (yanosky and jarrett, 2002). the average maximum height of scars can provide an indicator of maximum flood stage. this evidence can be combined with dendrochronology techniques to date the flood events to a specific year. interpretations of individual annual rings can sometimes identify the time of year a flood occurred to within a few months (yanosky and jarrett, 2002). however, requirements for flood-scarred, living trees in the flood plain can limit the length of the paleoflood reconstruction using dendrochronology (yanosky and jarrett, 2002).
What is the greatest shift?
p. leiophylla should shift northward early in the century by as much as 400 km and upward by ca. 100 m; by 2060, it should shift northward by as much as 600 km and upward by 400 m; and by 2090, it should shift northward by 800 km and upward by ca. 600 m
what will be the expected shift in 2090?
and by 2090, it should shift northward by 800 km and upward by ca. 600 m
what is the explanation of the events?
a reasonable expectation for both of these species would be that by the end of the century, a portion of the extramural climates of the southwest (fig. 16) should exhibit climate profiles typical of these species in the mexican portions of their contemporary distributions
rehfeldt et al.--plant-climate relationships the broad geographic distribution of p. leiophylla should shift northward early in the century by as much as 400 km and upward by ca. 100 m; by 2060, it should shift northward by as much as 600 km and upward by 400 m; and by 2090, it should shift northward by 800 km and upward by ca. 600 m. a reasonable expectation for both of these species would be that by the end of the century, a portion of the extramural climates of the southwest (fig. 16) should exhibit climate profiles typical of these species in the mexican portions of their contemporary distributions.
What much of this review focuses on?
foundation and resource-production species with large populations
What populations with small effective population sizes are expected to be?
less able to adapt quickly to environmental changes than large populations because of inbreeding depression (charlesworth willis 2009) and a lack of standing genetic variation (weber diggins 1990, frankham 2005, willi et al. 2006
What are they also less likely to?
less likely to have been locally adapted prior to anthropogenic climate change (willi et al. 2006, leimu fischer 2008
although much of this review focuses on foundation and resource-production species with large populations, we briefly consider implications of agf for small and declining populations. populations with small effective population sizes are expected to be less able to adapt quickly to environmental changes than large populations because of inbreeding depression (charlesworth willis 2009) and a lack of standing genetic variation (weber diggins 1990, frankham 2005, willi et al. 2006). they are also less likely to have been locally adapted prior to anthropogenic climate change (willi et al. 2006, leimu fischer 2008) and are more likely to have fragmented distributions and lower rates of contemporary gene flow (leimu et al. 2010). agf is equivalent to genetic rescue for small populations that are not locally adapted to climate, and these populations may benefit substantially from increased genetic diversity and decreased inbreeding depression
What indicate damage levels?
segments of the individual bars
Where are results for coincidence intervals?
si appendix fig. s3
How are damage level assessed?
relative to the country ' s gdp in the year of the event
fig. 3. results of eca for the risk enhancement test: the percentage of armed-conflict outbreaks that coincide with a climate-related natural disaster within the same month materials and methods ). we resolve different country groupings, disaster types (color coding), and disaster damage levels. damage levels are indicated by segments of the individual bars and are assessed relative to the country ' s gdp in the year of the event. segmenting starts with zero threshold from the top and the number of segments with nonzero coincidences can differ between country groupings and disaster types. filled segments indicate coincidence rates that are significant at the 95% level. results shown are for coincidences between events occurring within the same month (see si appendix fig. s3 for results for coincidence intervals of up to 12 months).
What is an experimental greenhouse?
water table. in each of the experimental greenhouses, seven replicate mesocosms were randomly selected for a higher water table treatment 5 cm from the peat surface) with the remaining seven subjected to a lower water table treatment 25 cm from the peat surface
Say two tables of temperature plant social changes?
he two water table treatments were held constant at their respective levels throughout the experiment to isolate the main effects that could be confounded by interactions among temperature, plant community changes, and evapotranspiration
Esplanade The State OP Water Component in Mesocos?
the two water table treatments were held constant at their respective levels throughout the experiment to isolate the main effects that could be confounded by interactions among temperature, plant community changes, and evapotranspiration. water levels were set in each of the mesocosms by fixing the end of the clear vinyl drain tube at the appropriate level on the outside of the mesocosm. this allowed for visual inspection of the water table position in the mesocosm, and prevented overwetting beyond the target water table level as excess water would simply drain until
water table. in each of the experimental greenhouses, seven replicate mesocosms were randomly selected for a higher water table treatment 5 cm from the peat surface) with the remaining seven subjected to a lower water table treatment 25 cm from the peat surface). the two water table treatments were held constant at their respective levels throughout the experiment to isolate the main effects that could be confounded by interactions among temperature, plant community changes, and evapotranspiration. water levels were set in each of the mesocosms by fixing the end of the clear vinyl drain tube at the appropriate level on the outside of the mesocosm. this allowed for visual inspection of the water table position in the mesocosm, and prevented overwetting beyond the target water table level as excess water would simply drain until
What was not anticipated when the policy was set out?
in practice, energy efficiency has not had a significant take-up and, in particular, individuals and companies have not been noticeable in their adoption of the claimed positive-npv investments.28indeed, an improvement in energy efficiency take-up appears to be more likely to result from the sharp increase in energy prices
What did the 2003 White Paper assume the price of a barrel of oil?
the 2003 white paper assumed $25/barrel oil for the foreseeable future
What turned out to be orders of magnitude greater than indicated by the MARKAL modelling?
but it is on renewables where the costs of the policy have turned out to be orders of magnitude greater than indicated by the markal modelling
in practice, energy efficiency has not had a significant take-up and, in particular, individuals and companies have not been noticeable in their adoption of the claimed positive-npv investments.28indeed, an improvement in energy efficiency take-up appears to be more likely to result from the sharp increase in energy prices (which were not anticipated when the policy was set out--the 2003 white paper assumed $25/barrel oil for the foreseeable future). but it is on renewables where the costs of the policy have turned out to be orders of magnitude greater than indicated by the markal modelling. a study by the national audit office (nao, 2005, p. 4) found that the renewables obligation 'is several times more expensive than other measures currently being implemented by the government'. compared with eu ets carbon prices in the range ps20-ps30 per tonne of carbon, the uk renewables programme is staggeringly expensive. perhaps only the italian renewables programme looks more expensive. recently it has begun to be appreciated that current biofuels policy may be
What is the first typology of adaptation option defined by Kurukulasuriya and Rosenthal?
micro-level adaptation options, including farm production adjustments such as diversification and intensification of crop and livestock production; changing land use and irrigation; and altering the timing of operations
What is the second typology of adaptation option defined by Kurukulasuriya and Rosenthal?
market responses that are potentially effective adaptation measures to climate change, such as insurance and credit schemes and income diversification opportunities
What is the third typology of adaptation option defined by Kurukulasuriya and Rosenthal?
institutional and policy changes, such as the removal or putting in place of subsidies, the development of income stabilization options, improvements in agricultural markets, and the promotion of inter-regional trade in agriculture
a wide range of possible adaptation or coping options exists, from technological changes to increase or maintain productivity, through to learning, policies and investment in specific sectors and risk reduction options, which may increase the adaptive capacity of poor livestock keepers. kurukulasuriya and rosenthal (2003) have defined a typology of adaptation options: * micro-level adaptation options, including farm production adjustments such as diversification and intensification of crop and livestock production; changing land use and irrigation; and altering the timing of operations. * market responses that are potentially effective adaptation measures to climate change, such as insurance and credit schemes and income diversification opportunities. * institutional and policy changes, such as the removal or putting in place of subsidies, the development of income stabilization options, improvements in agricultural markets, and the promotion of inter-regional trade in agriculture. * technological developments, such as the development and promotion of new crop varieties, improvements in water and soil management, and improved animal health technology.
Do indigenous societies exist within larger nation states?
indigenous societies exist within larger nation states
What is planned adaptation?
the ipcc has defined planned adaptation as 'adaptation that is the result of a deliberate policy decision, based on an awareness that conditions have changed or are about to change and that action is required to return to, maintain, or achieve a desired state' (ipcc, 2001: annex b
Is adaptation planning well distributed across the region?
however, adaptation planning and research is not evenly distributed across regions
indigenous societies exist within larger nation states. for this reason, climate change impacts or adaptation processes must also consider broader national and international policy frameworks that encapsulate and influence action at the community level. the ipcc has defined planned adaptation as 'adaptation that is the result of a deliberate policy decision, based on an awareness that conditions have changed or are about to change and that action is required to return to, maintain, or achieve a desired state' (ipcc, 2001: annex b). from this perspective, policy decisions that affect a community's ability to cope with changing environmental conditions may be worthy of special attention. it would seem critical to differentiate between policy decisions that support and empower indigenous peoples by reinforcing their resilience, from those that may undermine their adaptive capacities. in other words, adaptation planning at local, national and international levels may be fruitfully directed at creating a policy environment that facilitates the fullest expression of indigenous adaptive capacity in the face of climate change (ford et al., 2007; ford, pearce, duerden et al., 2010; nyong, adesina and osman elasha, 2007).  collaboration between indigenous knowledge holders and mainstream scientific research is generating new co-produced knowledge relevant for effective adaptation action on the ground.  an increasing number of indigenous communities (particularly in developed countries) are moving towards the creation of more formal adaption plans. however, adaptation planning and research is not evenly distributed across regions. 65
What are the specific effects of climate change?
the specific effects of climate change on particular marine ecosystems and fish populations are difficult to predict and quantify
What are the consequences of climate change?
the consequences of climate change include primary or direct effects due to sea-level rise, sea temperature change, lower ocean ph levels, changes in rainfall that will affect estuarine fisheries, and changes in ocean circulation
What are the primary effects cause?
these primary effects will, in turn, alter habitats and change the distribution and mix of species that will have a profound impact on fisheries and marine ecosystems
the specific effects of climate change on particular marine ecosystems and fish populations are difficult to predict and quantify. however, on a global and regional basis there is sufficient research to indicate that many, but not all, of these impacts will be negative. the consequences of climate change include primary or direct effects due to sea-level rise, sea temperature change, lower ocean ph levels, changes in rainfall that will affect estuarine fisheries, and changes in ocean circulation. these primary effects will, in turn, alter habitats and change the distribution and mix of species that will have a profound impact on fisheries and marine ecosystems
Is information at larger scales as detailed as information in local studies?
there are a number of complications with this process-the information at the larger scales tends not to be as detailed as that in the local studies
What can preferential flow and multi scale heterogeneity do to scale effects
preferential flow and multiscale heterogeneity may induce scale effects
Do borehole pumping tests in aquifers show higher or lower transmissivities than cores?
an example related to the dimensionality of the system is that borehole pumping tests in aquifers often show higher transmissivities than cores
as data never exhaustively represent the hydrological environment, heterogeneity and scale effects enter the scene in impact analyses. a key issue is how to combine measurements and models across a range of scales (bl"oschl, 2006). there are a number of complications with this process-the information at the larger scales tends not to be as detailed as that in the local studies; there is a lot of variability at all scales in the boundary conditions and media characteristics, part of which may involve preferential flow (e.g. fractured rocks); and the governing equations may not be known at all scales. preferential flow and multiscale heterogeneity may induce scale effects. an example related to the dimensionality of the system is that borehole pumping tests in aquifers often show higher transmissivities than cores; however, smaller transmissivities are more consistent with regionalscale models. there is an analogy between spatial heterogeneity at all spatial scales and clustering of events in time, which is tantamount to the presence of variability at all temporal scales. there have been a host of publications in the past decade that address scale issues in hydrology although many open questions remain. indeed, the use of point data (e.g. on soils) at the catchment scale is questioned by many because of a lack of representativeness. there exist alternatives, such as use of hillslope response indices rather than local scale soil characteristics or, generally, the use of small-scale information (e.g. chemical data) at the large scale in a qualitative way to assist in conceptualisations. spatial patterns of hydrological response may assist in identifying internal catchment dynamics (grayson and bl"oschl, 2000) which is another alternative to the straightforward upscaling of point data to the catchment scale. in the context of the implications of the current science question, important issues are how changes in the hydraulic characteristics of soil, due to vegetation changes, transfer to larger scales and what is the interplay of groundwater dynamics and stream flow dynamics in response to changed land cover and climate variations. this is related to the feedback issues mentioned above. of general interest is how one can upscale local information on soils, vegetation, groundwater and surface water-groundwater interactions to the scale of help basins (10 000 km2)?
What is the first surprising runoff curve produced?
firstly, the level of runoff in june is lowered only slightly, and this remains well above the peak of the runoff curve for current climate
What is the second surprising runoff curve produced?
secondly, runoff drops from june to much lower levels for july and august - similar to the july, august values for current runoff
What seems unlikely according to the data?
it seems unlikely that, with the halving of glacier area extent, spring snowmelt would produce runoff of greater intensity than summer icemelt in a catchment with 20% of its area still glaciated
reducing the 1986 glaciation area to 50%, however, produces a runoff curve which is surprising on two accounts: firstly, the level of runoff in june is lowered only slightly, and this remains well above the peak of the runoff curve for current climate. secondly, runoff drops from june to much lower levels for july and august - similar to the july, august values for current runoff. it seems unlikely that, with the halving of glacier area extent, spring snowmelt would produce runoff of greater intensity than summer icemelt in a catchment with 20% of its area still glaciated. the cause for the unexpected behaviour for abramov may be found in the high degree-day factor used (8.85 mm w.e. k-1 d-1, with no differentiation between snow and ice), causing more intense snowmelt than is realistic. a factor for the enhancement of ice melt relative to snow might significantly improve the oez's ability to reflect the hydrological processes of the abramov catchment. reducing glaciation extent to 0% increases june runoff to a level above that of both the 100% and 50% glaciation runs, which cannot be explained. the sharp drop in runoff after june is to be expected, as the low precipitation levels for july, august, and september leave snowmelt and ground water as the sole sources of summer runoff. the high degree-day factor exaggerates the rise, peak, and fall of the runoff curve. runoff levels for august are close to zero, though values for august and september are very sensitive to the necessary readjustment of groundwater movement. it must be concluded that the non-realistic progression of oez runoff scenario curves in response to changes in glaciation extent confirms that the model is incapable of replicating measured conditions properly in the abramov glacier basin.
Who are assessing the completeness of inventories of plant species diversity?
e1 curves by botanists
e1 curves by botanists for assessing the completeness of inventories of plant species diversity (e.g., colwell and coddington 1994; rosenzweig 1995). we address here the issue of completeness of our fire-scar chronologies because this is relevant to our interpretations that we were able to detect widespread fires within and between sites, and that these relatively extensive fire events were associated with climatic variations. in our example, fire frequencies (fires/century) at different sample sizes were re-computed for a fixed time period and study site using randomly selected sub-sets of the sampled trees (fig. 6.2). re-sampling (bootstrap) methods were used to estimate the confidence intervals of the mean fire intervals recomputed at different sample sizes (mooney and duval 1993). as expected, a general pattern that we commonly observed in these assessments was that fire frequencies tended to increase as more trees were added to the collection. however, when we applied the least restrictive filter of fire dates-- namely the inclusion of only those fire dates recorded by two or more trees--the fire frequency estimates were typically asymptotic as a function of sample size (fig. 6.2). this result suggests that single-tree fire-scar dates were probably representing relatively localized, small fires that occurred around those single trees. as sample size increased more of these small fires were detected, and so fire frequency continuously increased. presumably, with additional samples from an area of fixed size the fire frequency should eventually stabilize. if the area was large enough, as more samples were collected fire frequency would eventually reach the maximum possible frequency of one fire a year (i.e., all years with fire-scar dates). however, at the spatial scale of most of our sample areas (10-1000ha), surface fires recorded by two or more fire-scarred trees probably represented relatively widespread fires that exposed many trees to re-scarring. hence, when only these fire events were included, the fire frequencies tended to stabilize after a certain number of trees were sampled. in application of this kind of assessment to many of our firescar chronologies, we have found that in sites of less than approximately 100ha, 10 to 15 trees were usually sufficient to reach fire frequency asymptotes using the 2-tree minimum filter. in large sample areas (1000-10000 ha) asymptotes were usually not achieved with the 2-tree minimum filter but often were achieved with more restrictive filters (e.g., 25% or more trees scarred per fire, unpublished data). the main interpretation from these analyses was that most of our fire-scar chronologies were complete, or nearly complete, inventories of relatively widespread fires that occurred within the sampled areas. frequencies of fires of any size, occurring anywhere within the study sites, however, were probably underestimated because many small fires were probably not picked up by fire-scar sample sets of these sizes. an important point to bear in mind is that mean fire intervals (i.e., the inverse of fire frequency) estimated from composite fire-scar chronologies should not be interpreted to indicate that every square meter burned within the study area, on average, at those intervals. even in the case of mean fire intervals computed using
What could be the biggest global health threat of the 21st century?
climate change could be the biggest global health threat of the 21st century (campbell-lendrum et al. 2009
What does WHO emphasize about climate change?
however, who emphasises that climate change is also likely to cause changes in ecological systems that will affect the risk of infectious diseases in the european region, including the seasonal activity of local vectors and the establishment of (sub-)tropical species (menne et al. 2008
What did the European Commission recently publish?
the european commission recently published a white paper, 'adapting to climate change: towards a european framework for action'4 that, taken together with the detailed staff working paper, discusses the steps necessary to reduce the eu's vulnerability to the impact of climate change. in describing the profound effects expected on human and animal health, the white paper reinforces the conclusions of who and oie about the probable spread of serious infectious diseases, including zoonoses. the white paper and its accompanying documents also review the activities underway to improve eu capacity and resilience to react to climate change; they propose some general objectives for the eu health programme and community health strategy, covering public health capacity and fi nancing, co-operation between sectors and co-ordination in policy development and collaboration with countries outside europe
climate change could be the biggest global health threat of the 21st century (campbell-lendrum et al. 2009). the work of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) has assembled overwhelming evidence that humans are affecting the global climate, with numerous signifi cant implications for human health1. climate variability causes death and disease through natural disasters such as heat wave, fl ood and drought. in addition, many vector-borne and other infectious diseases are highly sensitive to changes in temperature and precipitation. much of the political and research focus on climate change until now has been on ways to mitigate the change, especially by effecting the transition to a lowcarbon economy. however, it is also increasingly recognised as vitally important to identify and support the necessary adaptation responses to what is unavoidable in climate change. the impacts of climate change on human health will not be evenly distributed globally. populations in developing countries are considered to be particularly vulnerable2. however, who emphasises that climate change is also likely to cause changes in ecological systems that will affect the risk of infectious diseases in the european region, including the seasonal activity of local vectors and the establishment of (sub-)tropical species (menne et al. 2008). the general assembly of the world organisation for animal health has highlighted that climate change will also have considerable impact on the (re-)emergence of infectious diseases in animals3. the european commission recently published a white paper, 'adapting to climate change: towards a european framework for action'4 that, taken together with the detailed staff working paper, discusses the steps necessary to reduce the eu's vulnerability to the impact of climate change. in describing the profound effects expected on human and animal health, the white paper reinforces the conclusions of who and oie about the probable spread of serious infectious diseases, including zoonoses. the white paper and its accompanying documents also review the activities underway to improve eu capacity and resilience to react to climate change; they propose some general objectives for the eu health programme and community health strategy, covering public health capacity and fi nancing, co-operation between sectors and co-ordination in policy development and collaboration with countries outside europe.
What does this article analyze?
this article analyzes the vulnerability and resilience levels of farm households in north shewa, ethiopia, using a survey of 452 households
What was done to analyze vulnerability to climate change induced shocks?
agro ecological based classification was done to analyze vulnerability to climate change induced shocks
What did the model output indicate for Ethiopian farmers with better investment?
the model outputs indicate that farmers with better investment on natural resource management, access to market, better social network, access to credit, preparedness, saving liquid assets, access to irrigation and better level of education exhibited greater level of resilience during and after climate change induced shocks
this article analyzes the vulnerability and resilience levels of farm households in north shewa, ethiopia, using a survey of 452 households. agro ecological based classification was done to analyze vulnerability to climate change induced shocks. integrated vulnerability analysis approach was employed to develop indexes for socioeconomic and biophysical indicators. the indicators have been classified into adaptive capacity, exposure and sensitivity to climate change impact. then principal component analysis was used to compute vulnerability index of each agro ecological zone. the result shows that farmers living in the highland areas were very much vulnerable to natural shocks compared to those living in the lowland area. in order to identify and analyse the determinants of resilience to climate change impacts, ordered probit model was used. households were classified into three categories based on the time they take to bounce back after natural shocks. the model outputs indicate that farmers with better investment on natural resource management, access to market, better social network, access to credit, preparedness, saving liquid assets, access to irrigation and better level of education exhibited greater level of resilience during and after climate change induced shocks. keywords: climate change; vulnerability; resilience; principal component analysis; ordered probit; ethiopia
What may result when governments attempt to educate populations about the dreadful consequences of extreme events?
when governments attempt to educate populations about the dreadful consequences of extreme events, they might incite the panic that their eff orts seem to limit
What education attempt by the US Atomic Energy Commission during the Cold War era has been blamed by social psychologists for contributing to the presence of panic-related disorders in children?
the so-called duck and cover programmes of the us atomic energy commission during the cold war era, which were designed to educate the public about an unimaginable catastrophe, have been blamed by social psychologists for contributing to the presence of panic-related disorders in children
What might be caused by educating the general public about social uncertainty?
social uncertainty might cause increased levels of psychological stress because of instabilities that are both perceived and real
the challenge to respond to extreme climatic events not only for social destabilisation but also in terms of knowledge can be overwhelming. when governments attempt to educate populations about the dreadful consequences of extreme events, they might incite the panic that their eff orts seem to limit. the so-called duck and cover programmes of the us atomic energy commission during the cold war era, which were designed to educate the public about an unimaginable catastrophe, have been blamed by social psychologists for contributing to the presence of panic-related disorders in children.143 planning for extreme events has secondary psychological implications that are rarely addressed by health practitioners. indeed, education of the general public about uncertainty is no simple matter and must be carried out with responsibility and care, and with recommendations for alternative forms of adjustment that are real and feasible. social illnesses related to environmental uncertainty cannot be underestimated because extreme events are by defi nition destabilising. social uncertainty might cause increased levels of psychological stress because of instabilities that are both perceived and real.144 climate change will, therefore, have an eff ect on psychosocial health.97 increased spending on appropriate counselling or sympathetic health promotion, and the initiation of such services in poor countries, could be as important as planning to reduce new disease vectors.
What potential response assessment ability is being/should be improved?
improving our ability to assess the potential response of regional precipitation and hydrologic extremes to global climate change
What understanding is being/should be improved and what expectations should then be established?
improving our understanding of how social systems mediate climate change impacts and establish expectations for water resource system performance and reliability, which would presumably need to be preserved under a changing climate. i
What assessment, characterization, and communication abilities is being/should be improved during the process of relating climate change information to water resources management implications?
improving our ability to assess, characterize, and communicate uncertainties as they are introduced at each analytical stage during the process of relating climate change information to water resources management implications
coast region and ground-water resources in the great plains). developing downscaled climate-projection information at finer spatial-temporal resolutions than what is already available (for example, submonthly and less than 1/8 degree resolution), for more variables (for example, diurnal temperature range, cloudiness, and solar radiation), and using methods that do not rely on "stationarity" between the relation of large-scale atmospheric circulation and local land-surface climate. improving our ability to assess the potential response of regional precipitation and hydrologic extremes to global climate change. improving our ability to assess and anticipate regionspecific impacts of climate change on land cover and ecosystems and potentially land-cover feedbacks on climate. improving our understanding of how social systems mediate climate change impacts and establish expectations for water resource system performance and reliability, which would presumably need to be preserved under a changing climate. improving our ability to assess, characterize, and communicate uncertainties as they are introduced at each analytical stage during the process of relating climate change information to water resources management implications. * * * * * 34 climate change and water resources management: a federal perspective
What does figure 4 presents?
figure 4 presents the breakpoint locations obtained for different imposed minimum periods between them
During which period of time did the winter precipitation of Lisbon presents a negative trend?
as happens with the nao index, the winter precipitation of lisbon, when allowed to change trend signs every 10 years, chooses not to do it, and between the early 1960s and the early 1990s presents a persistent negative trend
Which breakpoints locations are found in all solutions?
two breakpoints, in the early 1930s and early 1960s are present in all solutions
the lisbon precipitation time series has often been pointed out as a climate parameter strongly dependent of the nao index values, and the two series are known to be negatively correlated hurrell 1995; trigo et al. 2004]. the remaining question is to know if they present the same low frequency behavior. figure 4 presents the breakpoint locations obtained for different imposed minimum periods between them. the original series with the best fit for the 20 years and 25 year cases is also presented, in the upper panel of the figure. two breakpoints, in the early 1930s and early 1960s are present in all solutions. when comparing figures 2 and 4, one sees that, although the position of the breakpoints does not exactly match, the winter nao index and the lisbon winter precipitation show the same low frequency behavior. for the 10 year solutions the positions of the breakpoints almost coincide and the partial trends present opposite signs, as expected. as happens with the nao index, the winter precipitation of lisbon, when allowed to change trend signs every 10 years, chooses not to do it, and between the early 1960s and the early 1990s presents a persistent negative trend, which is a remarkable fact in the series history. in the nao index and in the lisbon precipitation the breakpoint in the early 1960s is very robust, making it a very important turning year in these climate series.
What should be done if self-reports are unavoidable.
their reliability and validity should be examined
What are two high-GHG impact behaviors?
ravel mode choice and energy use
What is a low-GHG impact behaviors?
refusing plastic bags
as the impacts of climate change are more widely experienced, the need to conduct research and interventions grows. eight suggestions for future research on anthropogenic climate change mitigation can be advanced.6,177first, researchers should include, wherever possible, measures of actual (rather than selfreported) environmental behavior. if self-reports are unavoidable, then at least their reliability and validity should be examined. the distinction between impact and intent-oriented actions must be considered. particular effort should be made to study high-ghg impact behaviors, such as travel mode choice and energy use,177as opposed to low-ghg impact behaviors, such as refusing plastic bags. the focus should be on the strength of effects on the environment,
Is the text concerned with economic outcomes, or with the causes of those outcomes?
first, it is only economic outcomes that matter, not the causes of the outcomes
What non-economic problems could be caused by climate change?
of course climate change could also cause noneconomic damages, such as greater morbidity and mortality, the extinction of species, and social disruptions
Would a large drop in the GDP be a positive or a negative outcome?
what we have to worry about is the possibility of a drop in gdp so large as to be considered catastrophic
focusing on catastrophic outcomes actually simplifies the problem somewhat. first, it is only economic outcomes that matter, not the causes of the outcomes. in other words, it doesn't matter whether a large drop in gdp is the result of a dramatic increase in temperature (but a moderate effect of temperature on output) or a moderate increase in temperature (but a dramatic effect of temperature on output). what we have to worry about is the possibility of a drop in gdp so large as to be considered catastrophic. (of course climate change could also cause noneconomic damages, such as greater morbidity and mortality, the extinction of species, and social disruptions. i am assuming - as is typically done in the estimation of the scc - that these noneconomic damages could all be monetized and included as part of the drop in gdp.)
Who were the interviewees?
the interviewees were authors of climate change articles in these news sources, as well as media workers in other sources and arenas connected to climate change
What did the authors seek to ascertain from the interviewees?
we sought to ascertain their views regarding portrayals of anthropogenic climate change science in their publications as well as in the media more generally
What did the questions put to the interviewees cover?
questions put to the interviewees covered a range of issues regarding media representations of climate science and connections to climate policy as well as public understanding of anthropogenic climate science research
the interviews were conducted with twenty-four journalists and editors between october 2006 and october 2007. the interviewees were authors of climate change articles in these news sources, as well as media workers in other sources and arenas connected to climate change. interviews range in length from 10 min to 1 h. we sought to ascertain their views regarding portrayals of anthropogenic climate change science in their publications as well as in the media more generally, and to validate as well as discuss the content analysis findings in news articles. questions put to the interviewees covered a range of issues regarding media representations of climate science and connections to climate policy as well as public understanding of anthropogenic climate science research. further interview content followed on comments made by interviewees therein.
What are the causes of flood-related deaths and injuries?
flood-related deaths and injuries are most likely to occur in the flood onset period, from drowning or from fatal injuries sustained when struck by debris in fast-flowing waters
What other flood-related health problems may occur in the medium and longer term?
outbreaks of infectious disease and adverse effects on mental health are more likely to occur in the medium and longer-term
Name some of the broad headings of health outcomes that result from floods.
the range of health outcomes addressed in this section, fall under the following broad headings: * mortality * injuries * diarrhoeal disease * other faecal-oral * infection from soil-transmitted helminths * vector-borne disease * rodent-borne disease * mental health 
flood-related deaths and injuries are most likely to occur in the flood onset period, from drowning or from fatal injuries sustained when struck by debris in fast-flowing waters. outbreaks of infectious disease and adverse effects on mental health are more likely to occur in the medium and longer-term. this temporal demarcation is somewhat arbitrary however. injuries may also occur in the pre-onset, and post-onset periods during evacuation and clean-up operations. flood events may be of long duration, creating a blurring of onset and post-onset phases, during which, for example, risk of drowning is prolonged. and it is also crucial to note that deaths may result from disease outbreaks. the range of health outcomes addressed in this section, fall under the following broad headings: * mortality * injuries * diarrhoeal disease * other faecal-oral * infection from soil-transmitted helminths * vector-borne disease * rodent-borne disease * mental health * other in addition to the detailed discussions that follow here under these headings, summary information on key studies we have surveyed is also provided in appendix 1.
Write about Auto Correlation?
temporal and spatial autocorrelation arise from nonindependence of observations and are a common feature of time series and geographical studies (legendre et al. 2002). autocorrelation can be caused by factors exogenous to the variables of interest, such as unknown environmental effects on population size, and factors endogenous to the variables of interest, such as the effect of intra-specific competition species on population size. temporal autocorrelation is commonly strong in marine ecological data. for instance, the same individuals will be counted in multiple years in population counts of longer lived species and data from heavily fished species are often strongly autocorrelated due to effects of economic development of fishing fleets and management regimes
What is the frequency of Auto correlation?
autocorrelation can occur over multiple time-scales in a dataset, including seasonal patterns at short time-scales and long-term trends due to gradual changes in observation methods or evolutionary change in the species studied. similarly, spatial autocorrelation can occur at a range of scales. for instance, small-scale spatial autocorrelation may be observed in species that aggregate to breed or where individuals of a species disperse to avoid competition, and large-scale autocorrelation may be present if important environmental gradients are unspecified in models
What are th effects and studies of Auto correlation?
autocorrelation that is unaccounted for can result in misleading inferences. in autocorrelated data, each measurement does not contribute a full degree of freedom to the analysis, so degrees of freedom in statistical tests are over-estimated, and this inflates the type-i error rate (falsely rejecting true null hypotheses). for instance, worm myers (2003) estimated effective degrees of freedom from fisheries data, and found that degrees of freedom may be inflated by up to six times in cod - shrimp correlations if autocorrelation is not considered. in many cases, exogenous autocorrelation may be removed if appropriate covariates are included in the model. alternatively, it is necessary either to explicitly model the autocorrelation structure, or to adjust degrees of freedom in statistical tests (i.e. estimate the effective sample size, given the autocorrelation) on the basis of the autocorrelation structure (see table 1 for how methods on detecting autocorrelation). in the review of the climate change ecology literature, 68 studies (49%) analysing biological changes over time considered temporal autocorrelation (fig. 3b). further, 19 studies (21%) with data at multiple locations made explicit use of spatial methods that either accounted for spatial autocorrelation or modelled covariates spatially
temporal and spatial autocorrelation arise from nonindependence of observations and are a common feature of time series and geographical studies (legendre et al. 2002). autocorrelation can be caused by factors exogenous to the variables of interest, such as unknown environmental effects on population size, and factors endogenous to the variables of interest, such as the effect of intra-specific competition species on population size. temporal autocorrelation is commonly strong in marine ecological data. for instance, the same individuals will be counted in multiple years in population counts of longer lived species and data from heavily fished species are often strongly autocorrelated due to effects of economic development of fishing fleets and management regimes. autocorrelation can occur over multiple time-scales in a dataset, including seasonal patterns at short time-scales and long-term trends due to gradual changes in observation methods or evolutionary change in the species studied. similarly, spatial autocorrelation can occur at a range of scales. for instance, small-scale spatial autocorrelation may be observed in species that aggregate to breed or where individuals of a species disperse to avoid competition, and large-scale autocorrelation may be present if important environmental gradients are unspecified in models. a basic assumption of most inferential statistical tests - that residuals are independently and identically distributed - will be violated if residuals are autocorrelated. thus, autocorrelation that is unaccounted for can result in misleading inferences. in autocorrelated data, each measurement does not contribute a full degree of freedom to the analysis, so degrees of freedom in statistical tests are over-estimated, and this inflates the type-i error rate (falsely rejecting true null hypotheses). for instance, worm myers (2003) estimated effective degrees of freedom from fisheries data, and found that degrees of freedom may be inflated by up to six times in cod - shrimp correlations if autocorrelation is not considered. in many cases, exogenous autocorrelation may be removed if appropriate covariates are included in the model. alternatively, it is necessary either to explicitly model the autocorrelation structure, or to adjust degrees of freedom in statistical tests (i.e. estimate the effective sample size, given the autocorrelation) on the basis of the autocorrelation structure (see table 1 for how methods on detecting autocorrelation). in the review of the climate change ecology literature, 68 studies (49%) analysing biological changes over time considered temporal autocorrelation (fig. 3b). further, 19 studies (21%) with data at multiple locations made explicit use of spatial methods that either accounted for spatial autocorrelation or modelled covariates spatially (fig. 3c). most studies grouped spatial data, thus not only avoiding issues with spatial autocorrelation, but also potentially removing important ecological patterns from analysis. in the following section, we discuss examples from climate change ecology that deal with temporal autocorrelation, spatial autocorrelation and spatial patterns in statistical analyses (for details of methods see table 1). many methods are common to both types of autocorrelation and therefore we provide references for further details.
What should be considered for this study?
as the projected climate conditions will probably vary greatly in the future from continent to continent and from developed to developing countries, studies must be conducted under tropical regions considering their specific environmental conditions
What is the importance of crops?
tropical and plantation crops include important crops for food security and alternative energy resources
In what context is this study performed?
effects of a changing climate on chemical and biological controls are discussed in the context of changing global outlook on environmental demands for the future
tropical and plantation crops include important crops for food security and alternative energy resources. even so, there are few studies on the impact of climate change on diseases of these crops. findings from previous studies concerning some climate-change effects on diseases of coffee, sugarcane, eucalyptus, cassava, citrus, banana, pineapple, cashew, coconut and papaya have been summarized to provide a context. by reviewing available methods to evaluate the impact of climate change on diseases of tropical and plantation crops, we present trends for some diseases and their management strategies, identify critical gaps in knowledge, and suggest experimental and analytical approaches to advance knowledge. as the projected climate conditions will probably vary greatly in the future from continent to continent and from developed to developing countries, studies must be conducted under tropical regions considering their specific environmental conditions. multifactor studies under realistic field situations, such as free air co2 enrichment with increasing co2 and o3 concentrations incorporating spectral reflectance measures in situ for realistic assessment of plant growth, are a way forward. effects of a changing climate on chemical and biological controls are discussed in the context of changing global outlook on environmental demands for the future. keywords atmospheric co2 and o3 concentration, crop management strategies, face facilities, open top chambers, tropical plant diseases
Why are populations at high latitudes vulnerable to climate change?
populations at high latitudes may be more vulnerable to climate change because they are typically at the margins of geographical ranges, and are likely to be small and isolated (hughes et al. 2002a
What is unknown?
however, almost nothing is known about larval connections along latitudinal or thermal gradients, or the relative genotypic diversity of tropical vs. highlatitude coral populations
Give one fact about the geographical ranges of approximately one-third of the corals on the GBR
the geographical ranges of approximately one-third of the corals on the gbr extend as far as lhi, the southernmost reef in the pacific
ecology letters (2004) 7: 273-278 tropical coral reefs are increasingly threatened by shifts in the world's climate, overfishing and declining water quality (knowlton 2001; wilkinson 2002; hughes et al. 2003). high levels of genetic diversity within populations of corals are likely to be an important element in evolutionary responses to climate change. populations at high latitudes may be more vulnerable to climate change because they are typically at the margins of geographical ranges, and are likely to be small and isolated (hughes et al. 2002a). however, almost nothing is known about larval connections along latitudinal or thermal gradients, or the relative genotypic diversity of tropical vs. highlatitude coral populations. here we exploit the vast north-south extent of australia's great barrier reef (gbr) (10-23  s), and the presence of reefs 700 km further south, at lord howe island (lhi) (31  s; fig. 1), to examine these issues for the first time. the geographical ranges of approximately one-third of the corals on the gbr extend as far as lhi, the southernmost reef in the pacific. dispersal to lhi requires the transport of planktonic larvae via the south-flowing east australia current (wolanski 1994).
What are examples of management plans allowed to incorporate climate change adaptation strategies but have not yet done so?
state wildlife action plans (scott and others 2008 and ecosystem-based fishery management plans (peterson and others 2008 are examples of this type of leveraging opportunity
What are staff members required to feel to tackle the challenge of managing natural resources in the face of climate change ?
tackling the challenge of managing natural resources in the face of climate change requires that staff members not only feel valued but also empowered by their institutions
What could be done to existing employees to tackle climate change?
existing employees could be effectively trained (or specialist positions designated) to attack climate change issues within the context of their current job descriptions and management frameworks
management plans that are allowed to incorporate climate change adaptation strategies but that have not yet done so provide a blank canvas of opportunity. state wildlife action plans (scott and others 2008 and ecosystem-based fishery management plans (peterson and others 2008 are examples of this type of leveraging opportunity. stakeholder processes can be an opportunity to move forward with new management approaches if public education campaigns on adaptation to climate change precede the stakeholder involvement. the issue of climate change has received sufficient attention that many people in the public have begun to demand actions by the agencies to address it. human and financial capital level of funding and staff capacity may pose significant barriers to adaptation to climate change (see table 10 ). managers may lack sufficient resources to deal with routine needs and even fewer resources to address unexpected events that will likely increase as a result of climate change. further, while climate change stands to increase the scope of management by increasing both the area of land requiring active management and the planning burden per unit area (because of adaptive management techniques), some agencies also face decreasing personnel in some regions (scott and others 2008 ). in addition, many agency personnel do not have adequate training, expertise, or understanding to effectively address emerging issues. yet despite these constraints, there may be creative ways to augment the workforce and stretch budgets to alter or supplement practices that would enable adaptation to climate change. tackling the challenge of managing natural resources in the face of climate change requires that staff members not only feel valued but also empowered by their institutions. many federal land management employees began their careers as passionate stewards of the nation's natural resources. with the threat of climate change further compounding management challenges, it is important that this passion be fully cultivated. existing employees could be effectively trained (or specialist positions designated) to attack climate change issues within the context of their current job descriptions and management frameworks (joyce and others 2008 ). for example, the national park service has recently implemented a program to educate
What is investigated by the paper?
this paper investigates the uncertainty in the impact of climate change on flood frequency in england, through the use of continuous simulation of river flows
How many sources of uncertainty are discussed?
six different sources of uncertainty are discussed: future greenhouse gas emissions; global climate model (gcm) structure; downscaling from gcms (including regional climate model structure); hydrological model structure; hydrological model parameters and the internal variability of the climate system (sampled by applying different gcm initial conditions
What is suggested by the results?
the results suggest that uncertainty from gcm structure is by far the largest source of uncertainty
this paper investigates the uncertainty in the impact of climate change on flood frequency in england, through the use of continuous simulation of river flows. six different sources of uncertainty are discussed: future greenhouse gas emissions; global climate model (gcm) structure; downscaling from gcms (including regional climate model structure); hydrological model structure; hydrological model parameters and the internal variability of the climate system (sampled by applying different gcm initial conditions). these sources of uncertainty are demonstrated (separately) for two example catchments in england, by propagation through to flood frequency impact. the results suggest that uncertainty from gcm structure is by far the largest source of uncertainty. however, this is due to the extremely large increases in winter rainfall predicted by one of the five gcms used. other sources of uncertainty become more significant if the results from this gcm are omitted, although uncertainty from sources relating to modelling of the future climate is generally still larger than that relating to emissions or hydrological modelling. it is also shown that understanding current and future natural variability is critical in assessing the importance of climate change impacts on hydrology.
What is the end result of the source of resistance against classroom climate from a rationalistic stance?
a major and classic source of resistance against classroom climate and related issues comes from a rationalistic stance with its dualistic view, its disregard of the environmental factors, and the risk of emphasis on bureaucratic solutions or reductive interpretations, ending up in empty techniques
What relatively new challenge criticizes cientific inquiry?
the relatively new challenge is the resistance coming from an irrational stance with its scepticism against improvements and shared values and its criticism of scientific inquiry
What is required to be addressed for successful change?
successful change requires addressing both the supportive and opposing forces that are always present in organisations and the links between immediate needs or situations and larger systemic issues (bradbury et al. 2008 
in summarising, a major and classic source of resistance against classroom climate and related issues comes from a rationalistic stance with its dualistic view, its disregard of the environmental factors, and the risk of emphasis on bureaucratic solutions or reductive interpretations, ending up in empty techniques. this kind of resistance is not new, even if it can take many different shapes. the relatively new challenge is the resistance coming from an irrational stance with its scepticism against improvements and shared values and its criticism of scientific inquiry. what we do to counteract the rationalistic critique would not necessarily make any impression on the critical remarks originating from irrational standpoints. there is reason to believe that the resistance coming from opposite directions could be even more difficult to handle. independently of their opposite motives, resistance or indifference towards knowledge and research on social climate in educational settings will have consequences that hamper the development of an educational climate of good quality, thus ultimately affecting students' results, well-being and behaviour. however, an awareness of the motives behind the resistance towards social climate in educational settings and teacher training could inspire the development of arguments that take account of this complexity and therefore can facilitate initiatives that are more appropriate. successful change requires addressing both the supportive and opposing forces that are always present in organisations and the links between immediate needs or situations and larger systemic issues (bradbury et al. 2008 ). therefore it seems particularly important to develop collaborative, participatory research and intervention programs, that are based on relevant theories and are truly open to dialogue and exchange with practitioners. participatory and action research designs involving school staff, students and parents could be appropriate for offering conditions that are necessary to support sustainable processes of change of the social climate in educational organisations.
What is the greater worry in relation to the overall prognosis for climate change?
while the overall prognosis for climate change impacts on crop and livestock agriculture in tropical regions is not good, an even greater worry are the more substantial impacts that will occur in certain tropical locations
What are the causes of the major gap in understanding the the local level impact of the overall prognosis of climate change?
this is partly because of long-term inadequacies in global and regional circulation models, but also because of the uncertainties involved in downscaling gcm output to the high spatial resolutions needed for effective adaptation work
What is the impact of prognosis of climate change on crop and livestock in tropical regions?
while the overall prognosis for climate change impacts on crop and livestock agriculture in tropical regions is not good
while the overall prognosis for climate change impacts on crop and livestock agriculture in tropical regions is not good, an even greater worry are the more substantial impacts that will occur in certain tropical locations. there is a major gap in our understanding of what these local-level impacts are likely to be. this is partly because of long-term inadequacies in global and regional circulation models, but also because of the uncertainties involved in downscaling gcm output to the high spatial resolutions needed for effective adaptation work. it is not that this downscaling cannot be done, it is just that the adequacy of it cannot currently be evaluated objectively (henderson-sellers, 2007).
What impacts the value of cattle?
management scenario options and their impacts on the value of cattle on a) private land and b) communal land across southern botswana (as per scenario assumptions in table 1). definitive, because of the problems of data parameterization of models given the limited quantitative livestock data available
What's the extension of farming systems research based on?
we provide an extension of farming systems research that is based on field data into a dynamic conceptual model and then a quantitative dynamic system model informed by livestock yield data
What's the potential of the scenario?
the quantitative scenario-based approach has the potential to enhance the communicative power of vulnerability assessments including the graphical representation of economic effects of different management, market, and policy futures (figs. 5-7
fig. 5 management scenario options and their impacts on the value of cattle on a) private land and b) communal land across southern botswana (as per scenario assumptions in table 1). definitive, because of the problems of data parameterization of models given the limited quantitative livestock data available. therefore, these results should be treated as hypotheses requiring further testing and as a guide to focus future research design rather than as firm conclusions. as such, before any policies are developed, there needs to be a further empirical research involving local scale quantitative yield assessments to test the validity of these claims. discussion we provide an extension of farming systems research that is based on field data into a dynamic conceptual model and then a quantitative dynamic system model informed by livestock yield data. the quantitative scenario-based approach has the potential to enhance the communicative power of vulnerability assessments including the graphical representation of economic effects of different management, market, and policy futures (figs. 5-7). in following such a quantitative approach, we can provide further insights into the farming system under consideration, in terms of factors affecting its
Who supported J.M.C?
j.m.c. was supported by the andrew w. mellon foundation
Who supported A.E?
a.e. was supported by the henry luce foundation
Who provided published and unpublished data for this review?
mary beth adams, sharon billings, john campbell, scott chang, jacqui codron, daryl codron, corli coetsee, jana compton, garry cook, paul dijkstra, susana echeverria-rodriguez, ursula falkengrengrerup, joe fargione, arthur gessler, christine goodale, paul grogan, per gundersen, heidi hawkins, peter hietz, will hoffman, lars hogbom, ben houlton, keisuke koba, peter leavitt, mikhail makarov, steve mcnulty, amy miller, lars-ola nilsson, rafael oliveira, scott ollinger, jean ometto, heather rueth, louis santiago, fabio scarano, patrick schleppi, ernstdetlef schulze, sah shambhu, keirith snyder, ryunosuke tateno, and peter vitousek. peter groffman, ben houlton, jeb barrett
j.m.c. was supported by the andrew w. mellon foundation and a.e. was supported by the henry luce foundation. we extend our appreciation to the those that provided published and unpublished data for this review: mary beth adams, sharon billings, john campbell, scott chang, jacqui codron, daryl codron, corli coetsee, jana compton, garry cook, paul dijkstra, susana echeverria-rodriguez, ursula falkengrengrerup, joe fargione, arthur gessler, christine goodale, paul grogan, per gundersen, heidi hawkins, peter hietz, will hoffman, lars hogbom, ben houlton, keisuke koba, peter leavitt, mikhail makarov, steve mcnulty, amy miller, lars-ola nilsson, rafael oliveira, scott ollinger, jean ometto, heather rueth, louis santiago, fabio scarano, patrick schleppi, ernstdetlef schulze, sah shambhu, keirith snyder, ryunosuke tateno, and peter vitousek. peter groffman, ben houlton, jeb barrett. we also thank the anonymous reviewers who provided comments and helpful discussion on the manuscript.
What are the two general variables we use to control for demand?
to control for demand, we thus use two general variables that are common to all technologies: gdp_per_capitajt, and popjt, xiii
Why using a simple variable such as the ratification of the Kyoto protocol would be unsatisfactory?
using a simple variable such as the ratification of the kyoto protocol would be unsatisfactory as well for, in absence of complementary information on the country policies, the results would be difficult to interpret
What other variables do we use to control for demand?
we also use technologyspecific demand variables, which are listed in table 2
given the scope of our country dataset, it has not been possible to collect consistent policy variables for each country. using a simple variable such as the ratification of the kyoto protocol would be unsatisfactory as well for, in absence of complementary information on the country policies, the results would be difficult to interpret. to control for demand, we thus use two general variables that are common to all technologies: gdp_per_capitajt, and popjt, xiii. the first one describes country j 's per capita gdp in ppp usd, the second one is the log of its population. we also use technologyspecific demand variables, which are listed in table 2.
Whay says in Liebig's law?
a limiting nutrient is the one whose concentration is closest to the minimum related to the organism's demand
What Thomann and Mueller suggested?
based on the ratio between the nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations (n/p), in order to make a preliminary estimate of whether the algal growth is being controlled by phosphorus or nitrogen
the limiting nutrient is the one that, being essential for a certain population, limits its growth. according to liebig's law, a limiting nutrient is the one whose concentration is closest to the minimum related to the organism's demand. with low concentrations of the limiting nutrient, the population growth is low. with an increase in the limiting nutrient concentration, the population growth also increases. this situation persists until the point in which the concentration of this nutrient starts to be so high in the system, that another nutrient starts to be the new limiting factor, since it is not present at concentrations sufficiently high for the requirements of the large population. this nutrient is now the new limiting nutrient, because there is no impact in increasing the concentration of the first nutrient, 144 to wastewater characteristics, treatment and disposal since the population will not rise, because it will be limited by the insufficiency of the new limiting nutrient. thomann and mueller (1987) suggested the following criterion, based on the ratio between the nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations (n/p), in order to make a preliminary estimate of whether the algal growth is being controlled by phosphorus or nitrogen.
What percent of coastlines looked at were moderately to highly sensitive to sea level rise?
more than 80
What characterizes the coast of Newfoundland and Labrador?
rugged, rocky
What might happen to existing salt marshes?
rapid sea level rise could also submerge existing salt marshes
the analysis of shaw et al.(9)identified more than 80% of the coastlines of nova scotia, new brunswick and prince edward island as being moderately to highly sensitive to sea level rise (figure 1). highly sensitive areas include the entire north shore of prince edward island, the gulf coast of new brunswick, much of the atlantic coast of nova scotia and parts of the urban centres of charlottetown and saint john. the rugged, rocky coast that characterizes much of newfoundland and labrador is generally considered to have low sensitivity to sea level rise, but there are areas of lower lying, moderately and highly sensitive coastline in that province where several communities are located. accelerated sea level rise would inundate coastal lowlands and erode susceptible shorelines. parts of the coast are expected to be permanently submerged,(10)while freshwater coastal marshes could become salt marshes and dykes enclosing areas lying below current high tide would have to be raised to avoid inundation by storm surges. rapid sea level rise could also submerge existing salt marshes. this will place at risk regions where marshes are unable to migrate inland, due, for example, to existing infrastructure. sea level rise and storm impacts have also been related to forest decline at sites lying close to sea level, as a result of increasing water table height and saltwater intrusion.(18)saltwater intrusion into coastal aquifers is also a concern for coastal communities and activities dependent of these aquifers for freshwater.
how southeast was associated?
southeast has been previously noted (portmann et al. 2009) and is likely associated with concurrent changes in precipitation (portmann et al. 2009) and subsequent land-atmosphere feedbacks (pan et al. 2004
what climate velocity estimates?
climate velocity estimates were sensitive to the spatial resolution of analysis, but scaled in a predictable fashion
how the sensitivity of data rate varied?
the sensitivity of the rate to data resolution varied with topographic complexity
southeast has been previously noted (portmann et al. 2009) and is likely associated with concurrent changes in precipitation (portmann et al. 2009) and subsequent land-atmosphere feedbacks (pan et al. 2004). there have also been well-documented changes in lowfrequency climate variability that have resulted in asymmetric temperature trends across the continental us with enhanced warming across the northern and western tier of the united states and reduced warming or even cooling in the southeast (abatzoglou redmond, 2007). these dynamics resulted in a dipole of vectors for tmin between the northern plains and the southeast with a neutral region of statistically nonsignificant vectors centered on the prairie peninsula and central plains regions (fig. 2). in contrast to the eastern half of the country, the mountainous west showed low rates on average and variable directions driven principally by physiographic features. for example, at the 1 deg resolution, tmin vectors in the pacific northwest and pacific southwest were oriented toward the east (fig. 2) given that temperature trends were positive and cooler temperatures were found upslope along the north - south-oriented cascade and sierra nevada mountain ranges. at more local scales, velocity vectors sometimes exhibited opposing directions with tmin pointing upslope and aet vectors pointing downslope (fig. 4). climate velocity estimates were sensitive to the spatial resolution of analysis, but scaled in a predictable fashion. coarsening the resolution of the input data often resulted in the maintenance of the mean direction and a reduction in the variance of the directional distribution (fig. 5a). this is the commonly observed 'support effect' for regionalized spatial variables (olea, 1990). in addition, estimates of the rate of climate velocity increased as the spatial resolution of the climate data was coarsened (fig. 5b). the sensitivity of the rate to data resolution varied with topographic complexity. areas with little topography showed an asymptotic response; i.e. high sensitivity at fine spatial resolutions and no sensitivity at
How has the author begun?
we begin with a comparison of the annual mean difference, or bias, between models and ncep for 1970-99
What are the measures of the biases?
most models have a slight cold bias, but the mean bias is only -0.38degc (0.68degf) and the median bias is -0.87degc (figure 2
Which models have the least bias in annual average temperature?
the models with least bias in annual average temperature are miroc, ipsl, ccsm3, giss-aom, and hadgem1
we begin with a comparison of the annual mean difference, or bias, between models and ncep for 1970-99. most models have a slight cold bias, but the mean bias is only -0.38degc (0.68degf) and the median bias is -0.87degc (figure 2). the models with least bias in annual average temperature are miroc, ipsl, ccsm3, giss-aom, and hadgem1. for precipitation (figure 3), almost all models have a wet bias, and for some the bias exceeds 50%. the mean bias is 16 cm (6.3", 19%). models with lowest bias are hadcm, giss_er, bccr, pcm1, and cnrm. note that no model falls in the best five for both temperature and precipitation, whereas csiro, gfdl2.0, and miroc-hi fall in the bottom five for both temperature and precipitation.
Are there robust studies on the differences of male versus female household management with regards to emissions?
unfortunately, so far there are no robust studies on the differences of male versus female household management with regards to emissions
Is there a reliable research that links level of education with awareness of mitigation of emissions intensity options?
the lower than average education of women will mean that their awareness of mitigation options such as the use of energy-efficient devices is limited. it can be assumed that in societies where women and men have a higher education, they will choose more energy efficient options. however, this is common sense and no reliable date exits to support this assumption at the moment
What could have a negative impact on women's time management in the household?
extreme weather events have a negative impact on women's time management in the household
in most societies, women carry a large measure of responsibility of household expenses and on management of the household. this obviously involves choices regarding the emissions intensity of the goods the household uses. unfortunately, so far there are no robust studies on the differences of male versus female household management with regards to emissions. the lower than average education of women will mean that their awareness of mitigation options such as the use of energy-efficient devices is limited. it can be assumed that in societies where women and men have a higher education, they will choose more energy efficient options. however, this is common sense and no reliable date exits to support this assumption at the moment. extreme weather events have a negative impact on women's time management in the household. when nearby wells and water sources run dry or are contaminated by floods, women have to search for water in the surrounding area and to travel long distances.40
What the IFRIC-3 withdrawal illustrates?
the ifric-3 withdrawal illustrates, we suggest, how accountants at the time viewed their role in mitigating the problem as largely technical and non-strategic
What can be questioned after the findings?
this finding rather calls into question the assumption amongst governmentality scholars that new discourse and practices necessarily have a particular agenda, with knowing actors driving it
What are the two sets of debates presented in the text?
during the period in question these two sets of debates - the wider societal debate about valuing the environment, and the detailed, technical debate about financial accounting and the eu ets - did not intersect
the ifric-3 withdrawal illustrates, we suggest, how accountants at the time viewed their role in mitigating the problem as largely technical and non-strategic. this finding rather calls into question the assumption amongst governmentality scholars that new discourse and practices necessarily have a particular agenda, with knowing actors driving it. the debate about ifric-3 took place behind closed doors - wider input was not canvassed, and in the debate few links were drawn to the more fundamental long-term implications of climate change for the accountancy profession (deloitte 2009; pricewaterhouse coopers and ieta 2007). indeed, this is despite concurrent wider debates on the principle of valuing the environment and accounting for environmental assets and liabilities, green reporting and corporate social responsibility (deegan and blomquist 2006; herbohn 2005; villiers and van staden 2006). during the period in question these two sets of debates - the wider societal debate about valuing the environment, and the detailed, technical debate about financial accounting and the eu ets - did not intersect.
Were both ensembles identical or were variables presented?
in order to investigate this further, lenton et al. (2009) carried out two ensembles of simulations with a coupled climate-carbon cycle model, one ensemble that included prescribed stratospheric ozone depletion, and a second ensemble that did not
Did the inclusion of ozone depletion find that the Southern Ocean uptake of CO2 was reduced?
when ozone depletion was included in their model, lenton et al. (2009) found that the southern ocean uptake of atmospheric co2 was reduced relative to the case without ozone depletion
in order to investigate this further, lenton et al. (2009) carried out two ensembles of simulations with a coupled climate-carbon cycle model, one ensemble that included prescribed stratospheric ozone depletion, and a second ensemble that did not. the two ensembles were identical in all other respects, thus allowing for clear identification of the effect of ozone depletion on the co2 air-sea flux. when ozone depletion was included in their model, lenton et al. (2009) found that the southern ocean uptake of atmospheric co2 was reduced relative to the case without ozone depletion. furthermore, this reduced co2 uptake was shown to be a response to enhanced ventilation of carbon-rich deep water (and associated increased outgassing of natural co2) due to poleward intensified westerly winds. as noted above, this same mechanism has been invoked to explain the observed changes in the co2 air-sea flux over the southern ocean in recent decades (le qu'er'e et al. 2007). these modelling results therefore lend support to the notion that stratospheric ozone depletion has weakened the southern ocean sink for atmospheric co2. 4. cryospheric response to stratospheric ozone depletion 4.1. antarctic sea-ice changes the discussion in the previous section on recent changes in the southern ocean naturally leads one to question how these changes may have affected antarctic sea ice. in the satellite era, total antarctic sea-ice extent (sie) has exhibited a small but statistically significant positive trend, with an estimated magnitude of 0
what is the definition of Epidemiology?
epidemiology has been defined as 'the study of the distribution and determinants of health-related states or events in specified populations
what is Epidemiological data essential for?
epidemiological data is essential for setting priorities within health, for designing and evaluating public health interventions, and is also an important tool for advocacy
what are the types of Observational studies
observational studies can be either descriptive or analytical and these types of study 'allow nature to take its course: the investigator measures, but does not intervene
epidemiology has been defined as 'the study of the distribution and determinants of health-related states or events in specified populations, and the application of this study to control of health problems' (last, 2001, p62). epidemiological data is essential for setting priorities within health, for designing and evaluating public health interventions, and is also an important tool for advocacy. in the context of flood disasters epidemiological data is important to enable public health officials and various disaster relief organisations to gain a better understanding of the different health outcomes that may arise from these kinds of events, the various population groups that may be affected, and how best to minimise the health impacts of future events. there are several types of epidemiological study design. observational studies can be either descriptive or analytical and these types of study 'allow nature to take its course: the investigator measures, but does not intervene' (beaglehole et al. 1993, p29). all the studies in this review are observational, some descriptive and others analytical. in general terms, analytical studies are given a higher rating as they analyse relationships between health status and other variables; while descriptive studies only provide a description of the occurrence of a disease in a population (beaglehole et al., 1993). in this review we have adopted this generalisation, and consider the 'most' rigorous studies to be those, which have provided details of the following: 1. clearly stated hypothesis 2. individuals included in the study and how they were selected (i.e. using some form of randomisation or probability sampling procedure)
What is happening now with the consumption of energy from food?
consumption, and average dietary energy intake rises
How is food consumption changing globally?
globally, the volume of food consumption increases by about 31 per cent, most of which comes from increased consumption of livestock products and processed foods
What will happen to food prices?
food prices in all regions are declining in 2050 under this scenario
global food security in 2050 9 consumption, and average dietary energy intake rises. this results in a thin tail to the left of the dec distribution. the reduction in malnutrition incidence is then determined by the difference between the areas bounded by the minimum dietary energy requirement and the caloric distribution curves in 2006 and in 2050. the changes in the composition of food consumed between 2006 and 2050 under the baseline scenario are reported in figure 3. globally, the volume of food consumption increases by about 31 per cent, most of which comes from increased consumption of livestock products and processed foods. note that food prices in all regions are declining in 2050 under this scenario (supporting information, column a in data s4), which suggest that agricultural productivity growth in the coming decades may exceed the growth in future food demand due to rising population and incomes. in regions with relatively low per capita incomes at present but facing strong income growth in the
What combination of two factors is expected to reduce stranded capacity?
thus, the combination of extending the lifetime of coal plants existing in 2010 and limiting the lifetime of plants built after 2010 is expected to reduce stranded capacity
What factor in each scenario supports the hypothesis?
the undiscounted cumulative stranded investment in each scenario supports the hypothesis that extending the lifetimes of existing plants can help to avoid stranded capacity
What type of planet does this article examine its climate policy implications?
please cite this article as: n. johnson, et al., stranded on a low-carbon planet: implications of climate policy for the phase-out of coal-based power plants, technol. forecast. soc. change (2014
please cite this article as: n. johnson, et al., stranded on a low-carbon planet: implications of climate policy for the phase-out of coal-based power plants, technol. forecast. soc. change (2014), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2014.02.028 capacity in the 2011 - 2030 period translates to less total installed capacity in the following two decades, assuming that the new capacity built after 2010 is not extended beyond 30 years fig. 7 b). thus, the combination of extending the lifetime of coal plants existing in 2010 and limiting the lifetime of plants built after 2010 is expected to reduce stranded capacity. the undiscounted cumulative stranded investment in each scenario supports the hypothesis that extending the lifetimes of existing plants can help to avoid stranded capacity fig. 8 ). in the
What influences seed production of globally invasice species?
we have shown that contemporary evolution of local adaptation to climatic conditions strongly influences seed production of a globally important invasive species
How can invasive species be viewed?
invasive species are not static entities, but can evolve rapidly, with important implications for future spread
What can improve our understanding of invasive species?
management efforts and comparative studies of native and introduced populations
we have shown that contemporary evolution of local adaptation to climatic conditions strongly influences seed production of a globally important invasive species -- as much as or more so than biotic factors such as enemy release or the evolution of increased competitive ability, which have up to now dominated the literature on plant invasions. local adaptation can evolve rapidly in outbreeding invaders like l. salicaria if multiple s from diverse native sources 6 14 15 contribute substantial standing genetic variation 5 ). in such cases, higher recombination rates increase the efficiency of natural selection in invasive populations of outcrossing relative to selfing species. management efforts and comparative studies of native and introduced populations could be improved by explicitly considering that invasive species are not static entities, but can evolve rapidly, with important implications for future spread.
Name the overall goal of Government of Canada's Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Program
the overarching goal of the government of canada's climate change impacts and adaptation program is to reduce canada's vulnerability to climate change
Mention some of the work that the Government of Canada's Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Program does
the research program supports cost shared research to address gaps in our knowledge of canada's vulnerability to climate change and to provide information for adaptation decision-making. the program also supports the canadian climate impacts and adaptation research network (c-ciarn
According to the text, state the aim of Canadian Climate Impacts and Adaptation Research Network (C-CIARN)
this network facilitates linkages between stakeholders and researchers, promotes new research techniques and methodologies, disseminates information, and provides a voice for an emerging impacts and adaptation research community
the overarching goal of the government of canada's climate change impacts and adaptation program is to reduce canada's vulnerability to climate change. the research program supports cost shared research to address gaps in our knowledge of canada's vulnerability to climate change and to provide information for adaptation decision-making. the program also supports the canadian climate impacts and adaptation research network (c-ciarn). this network facilitates linkages between stakeholders and researchers, promotes new research techniques and methodologies, disseminates information, and provides a voice for an emerging impacts and adaptation research community. additional copies of this report can be obtained from climate change impacts and adaptation directorate natural resources canada 601 booth street ottawa, ontario k1a 0e8 adaptation@nrcan.gc.ca (c) her majesty the queen in right of canada, 2004 isbn: 0-662-33123-0 cat. no.: m174-2/2004e this publication is also available at: http://adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/perspective_e.asp ce document est egalement offert en francais sous le titre impacts et adaptation lies aux changements climatiques perspective canadienne
what are the sources of highly multi-disciplinary field of study?
climate change and occupational health is a highly multi-disciplinary field of study and requires scholarly information from a variety of sources
Which method is useful to track key articles?
the 'pearl picking' method was initially applied. this method uses one exceptionally useful article (often a review article) to track key articles in the field
Which are the retrieval tools we can chose?
the information retrieval tools chosen were pubmed, lund university's search engine summons, scopus, google scholar, web of science and the science citation index7
the extensive amount of information on heat stress made it necessary to have a strategic information search to find key articles. climate change and occupational health is a highly multi-disciplinary field of study and requires scholarly information from a variety of sources. that is why the 'pearl picking' method was initially applied. this method uses one exceptionally useful article (often a review article) to track key articles in the field. the article chosen for the 'pearl picking' was: kjellstrom, holmer and lemke: workplace heat stress, health and productivity - an increasing challenge for low-and middle income countries during climate change6). a thorough exploration of different databases and search engines was then carried out and several information retrieval tools were selected. most were broad multidisciplinary platforms and databases covering a wide variety of journals and hence, more likely to have the articles desired. the information retrieval tools chosen were pubmed, lund university's search engine summons, scopus, google scholar, web of science and the science citation index7). several search words were used such as 'occupational heat exposure', 'occupational heat stress', 'occupational heat strain', 'heat in/at workplace', 'work in the heat', 'occupational heat stress and climate change' and the more broad search words 'heat stress'. relevant articles were then selected. an internal database and library was also used together with the international labour organization's bookshelf on occupational safety and health35).
At which year fourth assessment report(AR4) was released?
the ipcc's fourth assessment report (ar4), released in 2007
what does small islands comprise?
many small islands] comprise small land masses surrounded by ocean, and are frequently located in regions prone to natural disasters, often of a hydrometeorological and/or geological nature
how tropical areas is hosted?
in tropical areas they host relatively large populations for the area they occupy, with high growth rates and densities
the ipcc's fourth assessment report (ar4), released in 2007, stated that small islands share a set of particular and unique vulnerabilities to climate change and sea-level rise. the ar4 related this vulnerability to the geophysical characteristics of small islands and to social and demographic factors. in its to chapter 16, the ar4 notes: [many small islands] comprise small land masses surrounded by ocean, and are frequently located in regions prone to natural disasters, often of a hydrometeorological and/or geological nature. in tropical areas they host relatively large populations for the area they occupy, with high growth rates and densities. many small islands have poorly developed infrastructure and limited natural, human and economic resources, and often-small island populations are dependent on marine resources to meet their protein
which gases plays the dominant role ?
concentrations of ammonium and nitrate document the dominant role
ice cores from low latitudes can provide a wealth of unique information about past climate in the tropics, but they are difficult to recover and few exist. here, we report annually resolved ice core records from the quelccaya ice cap (5670 meters above sea level) in peru that extend back ~1800 years and provide a high-resolution record of climate variability there. oxygen isotopic ratios d18o) are linked to sea surface temperatures in the tropical eastern pacific, whereas concentrations of ammonium and nitrate document the dominant role played by the migration of the intertropical convergence zone in the region of the tropical andes. quelccaya continues to retreat and thin. radiocarbon dates on wetland plants exposed along its retreating margins indicate that it has not been smaller for at least six millennia.
What new map did the first geographical textbooks make use of?
the new digital world map of k"oppen-geiger climate classification
What additional maps are presented in this paper?
here, additional world maps of k"oppen-geiger climate classification depicting the shift of climate zones in the past, present and future are presented
What measurements in Asia were among the data reviewed to investigate the effect of particulate air pollution on mortality in the USA?
micrometeorological flux measurements in asia
direct use of the digital data set was made for example to review micrometeorological flux measurements in asia (mizoguchi et al., 2009), to investigate the effect of particulate air pollution on mortality in the usa (zanobetti and schwartz, 2009) and to identify climate type represented by fossil flora (utescher et al., 2009). kottek and rubel (2007) applied the digital database to regionalize spatial auto-correlation functions applied to objectively analyze global daily precipitation fields by block kriging. even the first geographical textbooks (raw, 2008; kuttler, 2009) desisted from depicting the historical hand-drawn map, as usual in geography, and made use of the new digital world map of k"oppen-geiger climate classification. here, additional world maps of k"oppen-geiger climate classification depicting the shift of climate zones in the past, present and future are presented. because of the lack of global datasets, the pioneers of the effective
Is Guatemala among the six top countries regarding national electricity production?
special attention is drawn to the fact that el salvador, costa rica and nicaragua are among the six top countries, and guatemala is in eleventh place
Do geothermal power stations provide most of the total electricity generation in Central American countries?
geothermal power stations provide about 12% of the total electricity generation of costa rica, el salvador, guatemala and nicaragua
Does volcanic activity jeopardize geothermal energy output?
this clearly demonstrates how significant geothermal energy can be in the electricity production of countries and regions rich in high-temperature fields which are associated with volcanic activity
electricity generation figure 6 shows the top fourteen countries with the highest share of geothermal energy in their national electricity production. special attention is drawn to the fact that el salvador, costa rica and nicaragua are among the six top countries, and guatemala is in eleventh place. central america is one of the world's richest regions in geothermal resources. geothermal power stations provide about 12% of the total electricity generation of costa rica, el salvador, guatemala and nicaragua, according to data provided by the countries for the world geothermal congress in 2005 (bertani, 2005). the geothermal potential for electricity generation in central america has been estimated to be some 4,000 mwe (lippmann 2002). only a small portion of the geothermal resources in the region has been harnessed so far (under 500 mwe). the electricity generated in the geothermal fields is in all cases replacing electricity generated by imported oil. this clearly demonstrates how significant geothermal energy can be in the electricity production of countries and regions rich in high-temperature fields which are associated with volcanic activity. kenya is the first country in africa to utilise its rich geothermal resources and can in the foreseeable future produce most of its electricity with hydropower and geothermal energy. several other countries in the east african rift valley may follow suit. indonesia is probably the world's richest country in geothermal resources and can in the future replace a considerable part of its fossil fuelled electricity by geothermal energy.
What contributes to innovate workplaces?
further, as a component of leadership, vision both augments organizational processes and culture and contributes to innovative workplaces
How did Elenkov and Manev and others identify leader behavior?
elenkov and manev (2005, p. 384) and others (bundy, 2002; henry, 2001) identified leader behavior as stimulating employee participation and esteem and encouraging new ideas as integral to the innovation process
What did Yukl assert about specific leadership behaviors?
yukl (2002) asserted that specific leadership behaviors may influence innovation through compliance as part of the organizational culture
further, as a component of leadership, vision both augments organizational processes and culture and contributes to innovative workplaces. elenkov and manev (2005, p. 384) and others (bundy, 2002; henry, 2001) identified leader behavior as stimulating employee participation and esteem and encouraging new ideas as integral to the innovation process. these leadership behaviors, namely individualized consideration and motivation, derive from a leader's vision and values and contribute to a culture that facilitates organizational innovation (elenkov manev, 2005; nutt, 2002). yukl (2002) asserted that specific leadership behaviors may influence innovation through compliance as part of the organizational culture. finally, organizational culture is an important determinant of climate. such a view is consistent with the work of moran and volkwein (1992), who argued that climate reflects the shared knowledge and meanings embodied in an organization's culture. organizational climate can thus be regarded as the expression of underlying cultural practices that arise in response to contingencies in the organization's internal and external environment. this view affirms the "climate-for" innovation approach (ostroff et al., 2003) as a valid accompaniment to studies of organizational culture, consistent with glisson and james' (2002, p. 789) observation that climate and culture should be studied simultaneously. on the basis of the above arguments and empirical evidence, we specify the following hypotheses:
What does the the gain, loss, and modification of gene regulatory elements may underlie?
the gain, loss, and modification of gene regulatory elements may underlie a substantial proportion of phenotypic changes on animal lineages
Why we identified genome-wide sets of putative regulatory regions for five vertebrates, including humans?
to investigate the gain of regulatory elements throughout vertebrate evolution
What does (CNEEs) stands for?
conserved nonexonic elements
sofie r. salama,1,3david m. kingsley,2,3kerstin lindblad-toh,5,7david haussler1,3* the gain, loss, and modification of gene regulatory elements may underlie a substantial proportion of phenotypic changes on animal lineages. to investigate the gain of regulatory elements throughout vertebrate evolution, we identified genome-wide sets of putative regulatory regions for five vertebrates, including humans. these putative regulatory regions are conserved nonexonic elements (cnees), which are evolutionarily conserved yet do not overlap any coding or noncoding mature transcript. we then inferred the branch on which each cnee came under selective constraint. our analysis identified three extended periods in the evolution of gene regulatory elements. early vertebrate evolution was characterized by regulatory gains near transcription factors and developmental genes, but this trend was replaced by innovations near extracellular signaling genes, and then innovations near posttranslational protein modifiers.
What timing advantage does geothermal energy have over wind and solar energy?
geothermal energy is available day and night every day of the year
In the last two decades, what helped geothermal energy extend beyond limitations of areas where thermal water or steam is found concentrated at depths less than 3 km in restricted volumes, analogous to oil in commercial oil reservoirs?
the development of power plants that can economically utilise lower temperature resources (around 100degc) and the emergence of ground source heat pumps using the earth as a heat source for heating or as a heat sink for cooling, depending on the season
How is heat transferred between the Earth's core towards the surface?
the heat is transferred from the interior towards the surface mostly by conduction
it should be stressed that table 1 is not published here in order to diminish the importance of wind or solar energy. on the contrary, the table shows that geothermal energy is available day and night every day of the year and can thus serve as a supplement to energy sources which are only available intermittently. it is most economical for geothermal power stations to serve as a base load throughout the year, but they can also, at a cost, be operated to meet seasonal variations and as peak power. this applies both to electricity production (table 1) and direct utilisation for heating/cooling. geothermal energy has until recently had a considerable economic potential only in areas where thermal water or steam is found concentrated at depths less than 3 km in restricted volumes, analogous to oil in commercial oil reservoirs. this has changed in the last two decades with the development of power plants that can economically utilise lower temperature resources (around 100degc) and the emergence of ground source heat pumps using the earth as a heat source for heating or as a heat sink for cooling, depending on the season. this has made it possible for all countries to use the heat of the earth for heating and/or cooling, as appropriate. it should be stressed that heat pumps can be used basically everywhere. geothermal resources geothermal energy, in the broadest sense, is the natural heat of the earth. immense amounts of thermal energy are generated and stored in the earth's core, mantle and crust. at the base of the continental crust, temperatures are believed to range from 200 to 1,000degc, and at the centre of the earth the temperatures may be in the range of 3,500 to 4,500degc. the heat is transferred from the interior towards the surface mostly by conduction, and this conductive heat flow makes temperature rise with increasing depth in the crust on average 25-30degc/km. geothermal production wells are commonly more than 2 km deep, but rarely much more than 3 km at present. with an average thermal gradient of 25-30degc/km, a 1 km well in dry rock
Which provide quantitative information on glacial and interglacial climates?
subfossil pollen and plant macrofossil data derived from 14c-dated sediment profiles can provide quantitative information on glacial and interglacial climates
Describe the functions of data?
the data allow climate variables related to growingseason warmth, winter cold, and plant-available moisture to be reconstructed
Describe the purpose of Continental-scale reconstructions?
continental-scale reconstructions have been made for the mid-holocene (mh, around 6 ka) and last glacial maximum (lgm, around 21 ka), allowing comparison with palaeoclimate simulations currently being carried out as part of the fifth assessment report (ar5) of the intergovernmental panel on climate change
subfossil pollen and plant macrofossil data derived from 14c-dated sediment profiles can provide quantitative information on glacial and interglacial climates. the data allow climate variables related to growingseason warmth, winter cold, and plant-available moisture to be reconstructed. continental-scale reconstructions have been made for the mid-holocene (mh, around 6 ka) and last glacial maximum (lgm, around 21 ka), allowing comparison with palaeoclimate simulations currently being carried out as part of the fifth assessment report (ar5) of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. the synthesis of the available mh and lgm climate reconstructions and their uncertainties, obtained using modernanalogue, regression and model-inversion techniques, is presented for four temperature variables and two moisture variables. reconstructions of the same variables based on
What application have climate models not eluded to?
the application of simple climate models has elucidated the most important factors that, to first order, determine earth's global mean surface temperature
How is the climate forcing of the 20th century calculated?
the climate forcing of the 20th century is calculated by assuming time evolving growth curves for greenhouse gas concentrations, aerosol concentrations and natural forcing factors that include solar variability and volcanic aerosols
What is important to note in terms the radiative flux?
it is important to note that the change in radiative flux is calculated and not prescribed in the fully coupled climate models
the application of simple climate models has elucidated the most important factors that, to first order, determine earth's global mean surface temperature. a number of studies raper et al. 2001; forest et al. 2002; knutti et al. 2002] have shown that there are three fundamental climate factors, namely: the climate forcing, the climate sensitivity and the efficiency of ocean heat uptake. given these three factors one can calculate the evolution of the global mean surface temperature. all of the models applied to simulating the 20th century climate represent these factors in varying degrees of sophistication. the focus of the present work is on two of these factors: climate forcing and climate sensitivity. the role of the efficiency of ocean heat uptake will be discussed later. in the simpler energy balance models these three factors are specified, while in the more comprehensive three dimensional climate models the climate sensitivity and efficiency of ocean heat uptake are predicted. the climate forcing of the 20th century is calculated by assuming time evolving growth curves for greenhouse gas concentrations, aerosol concentrations and natural forcing factors that include solar variability and volcanic aerosols. it is important to note that the change in radiative flux is calculated and not prescribed in the fully coupled climate models. in the simpler energy balance models the actual radiative forcing is prescribed. the temporal evolution of the well-mixed greenhouse gases is more constrained by
What is Heinrich events related to?
heinrich events, related to large-scale surges of the laurentide ice sheet, represent one of the most dramatic types of abrupt climate change occurring during the last glacial
In the study model mentioned in the paragraph , what is simulated?
using a coupled atmosphere-ocean-biosphere-ice sheet model, we simulate quasi-periodic large-scale surges from the laurentide ice sheet
What is the average time between simulated events?
the average time between simulated events is about 7,000 yrs, while the surging phase of each event lasts only several hundred years, with a total ice volume discharge corresponding to 5-10 m of sea level rise
heinrich events, related to large-scale surges of the laurentide ice sheet, represent one of the most dramatic types of abrupt climate change occurring during the last glacial. here, using a coupled atmosphere-ocean-biosphere-ice sheet model, we simulate quasi-periodic large-scale surges from the laurentide ice sheet. the average time between simulated events is about 7,000 yrs, while the surging phase of each event lasts only several hundred years, with a total ice volume discharge corresponding to 5-10 m of sea level rise. in our model the simulated ice surges represent internal oscillations of the ice sheet. at the same time, our results suggest the possibility of a synchronization between instabilities of different ice sheets, as indicated in paleoclimate records.
What are the dangers of climate change?
climate change poses a serious threat to sustainable urban development, placing many cities at risk
What are the challenges that city authorities face because of climate change?
city authorities face the challenge of finding ways to include adaptation strategies into their work, although related knowledge and competence is still scarce and fragmented
What is the first step related to the approaches to adaptation planning in cities?
first the conceptual characteristics and features of a climate-resilient city are identified
climate change poses a serious threat to sustainable urban development, placing many cities at risk. consequently, city authorities face the challenge of finding ways to include adaptation strategies into their work, although related knowledge and competence is still scarce and fragmented. with the aim of contributing to knowledge development and organizational learning, the objective of this paper is to critically review and compare current theoretical and practical approaches to adaptation planning in cities. first the conceptual characteristics and features of a climate-resilient city are identified. second, the reciprocal linkages between climate-related disasters, urban form and city planning processes are analysed - by taking into account the life cycle of disasters from causes, to shortand long-term impacts, and post-disaster response and recovery. finally, urban adaptation measures proposed for both developed and so-called developing countries are assessed. on the basis of the differences, gaps and synergies identified between theoretical and practical approaches to adaptation planning, the implications for improving sustainable urban transformation are discussed.
What is the antidote to multicollinearity?
in general, the antidote to multicollinearity is more data
How does multicollinearity effect the results?
the presence of multicollinearity does not undermine the reliability of the model as a whole (e.g., results in fig. 3), but it affects our ability to distinguish with certainty the individual impact of the correlated variables, as the variances are inflated
What percentage of the variation in yield is explained by the state-specific time trends?
by comparing these two regressions, we find that the state-specific time trends explain most (about 89%) of the variation in yields
to illustrate that our results are not being driven by particular years or states, we ran our wheat analysis with a subset of data (even years). we then applied those coefficients to the rest of the data (odd years). the results are shown in fig. s14. explanatory power of different variables. the inclusion of statespecific time trends in our model effectively detrends the data; our model thus asks how much of the variation in year-to-year demeaned yields (e.g., figs. s2 and s3) is explained by the fluctuations in demeaned climate and emissions variables. the relative importance of the time trends can be seen by first regressing the yield, climate, and pollution variables on the state-specific time trends (i.e., explicitly detrending them) and then regressing the yield residuals on the climate and pollution residuals. the coefficients for the explanatory variables will be identical (frisch - waugh - lovell theorem). by comparing these two regressions, we find that the state-specific time trends explain most (about 89%) of the variation in yields. in addition, we can compare a regression of the yield residuals on climate residuals (alone) versus both climate and pollution residuals to compare whether (and how much) the pollution variables add to the model explanatory power. we found that the explanatory power of the full climate-and-pollution model is better than a model with only climate variables and no pollution variables. table s2 summarizes these results; the detrended relationship is also shown in the inset of fig. s14. these results are not surprising. that is, the pollution variables increase the power of the year-to-year predictions, but not by all that much, in part because year-to-year fluctuations aren ' t that large in the emissions variables (as seen from the time series plots of emissions in figs. s5 - s7). put another way, the signaltonoise ratio for the pollution variables is low. this analysis illustrates the need for larger studies over more widely varying pollution regimes or the leveraging of natural experiments that produce greater year-to-year variation in emissions. in addition, a finer-grained look at management practices may help gain leverage on the remaining variation. collinearity. in addition to low signal-to-noise for the emissions variables, our analysis is limited because of multicollinearity, or the strong linear correlation of independent variables in a regression analysis (in this case, the emissions variables, which are all fairly monotonically increasing over time) (figs. s5 - s7, s11, and table s3). the presence of multicollinearity does not undermine the reliability of the model as a whole (e.g., results in fig. 3), but it affects our ability to distinguish with certainty the individual impact of the correlated variables, as the variances are inflated. it is for this reason that we are unable to quantify with certainty the relative impacts of aerosols versus ozone within slcp impacts. in general, the antidote to multicollinearity is more data, adding for example, other countries to a dataset or undertaking analysis at a smaller unit of scale. the latter is only a limited option in this case, as relating local emissions to local yield changes would become invalid at a smaller scale (because of shorter-range pollutant transport). however, expanding the analysis to include other regions of the world (as data become available) points to a promising future avenue of research.
What percentage of farmers used inorganic fertilisers?
around 60% of farmers who used inorganic fertilisers in our sample acquired it from channels other than fsp
How is Conservation Agriculture constituted in Zambia?
conservation agriculture is promoted as conservation farming (cf) in zambia in a package consisting of: (i) reduced tillage on no more than 15% of the field area without soil inversion, (ii) precise digging of permanent planting basins or ripping of soil with a magoye ripper (the latter where draft animals are available), (iii) leaving of crop residues on the field (no burning), (iv) rotation of cereals with legumes, and (v) dry season land preparation
What are the differences between the CF and the more general CA package?
note the differences between this and the more general ca package that consists of three principles: minimum mechanical soil disturbance; permanent organic soil cover, and crop rotation
around 60% of farmers who used inorganic fertilisers in our sample acquired it from channels other than fsp. 5conservation agriculture is promoted as conservation farming (cf) in zambia in a package consisting of: (i) reduced tillage on no more than 15% of the field area without soil inversion, (ii) precise digging of permanent planting basins or ripping of soil with a magoye ripper (the latter where draft animals are available), (iii) leaving of crop residues on the field (no burning), (iv) rotation of cereals with legumes, and (v) dry season land preparation (cfu, 2007). the conservation farming unit has recently been promoting the incorporation of nitrogen fixing crops into the cf package. however the five main principals remain essential. note the differences between this and the more general ca package that consists of three principles: minimum mechanical soil disturbance; permanent organic soil cover, and crop rotation (fao, 2012). while these principles were treated as inseparable in the past, recent thought on ca is more flexible in acknowledging that one or more of the components may provide needed food security and adaptation benefits in many smallholder systems in southern africa.
What does the data from the summer-dry Oregon Coast Range show?
data from the summer-dry oregon coast range show high fire activity in the early holocene and a trend towards fewer fires in the late holocene long
Which fire-sensitive species are well represented in the early Holocene interval?
fire-sensitive species, such as douglas-fir, red alder alnus rubra ), oregon white oak quercus garryana ), and bracken pteridium spp.), are well represented in the early holocene interval
What do charcoal records from the summer-dry region of southern Yellowstone National Park indicate?
charcoal records from the summer-dry region of southern yellowstone national park also indicate increased fire activity associated with warmer and drier conditions in the early holocene millspaugh
for example, an expansion of xerophytic taxa, most notably quercus spp., is consistent with warmer drier conditions in the early holocene, but no change in fire frequency is registered on this time scale mohr et al., 2000 ). in contrast, pollen data were not sensitive enough to detect vegetation changes on millennial and shorter time scales in this area, when the region has experienced elevated fire activity. data from the summer-dry oregon coast range show high fire activity in the early holocene and a trend towards fewer fires in the late holocene long et al., 1998; long and whitlock, 2002 ). fire-sensitive species, such as douglas-fir, red alder alnus rubra ), oregon white oak quercus garryana ), and bracken pteridium spp.), are well represented in the early holocene interval. the decrease in fire activity correlates well with an expansion of mesophytic rainforest taxa, such as sitka spruce picea sitchensis and western hemlock tsuga heterophylla ), and provides supporting evidence of cooling and increased moisture in the last few millennia. charcoal records from the summer-dry region of southern yellowstone national park also indicate increased fire activity associated with warmer and drier conditions in the early holocene millspaugh et al., 2000 ). two sites, cygnet and trail lakes, register this fire response, and it occurs even where the vegetation has been relatively unresponsive to holocene climate changes. at cygnet lake, for example, infertile, well-drained soils have maintained lodgepole pine forests over the last 11,000 years whitlock, 1993 ). in contrast, trail lake on andesitic terrain records an expansion of douglas-fir and lodgepole pine in the early holocene followed by increased spruce, fir, and whitebark pine in the late holocene. at cygnet lake, the fire frequency was low prior to 11,000 cal year bp during an initial tundra-open meadow period. with the arrival of lodgepole pine,
What kind of people can be described as a "worryworts"?
researchers at cred and elsewhere have discovered that people, even those who might be described as "worrywarts," have a limited capacity for worrying about issues. scholars refer to this limited capacity as a finite pool of worry 
What results from the limited capacity to worry about multiple issue?
because people have a limited capacity for how many issues they can worry about at once, as worry increases about one type of risk, concern about other risks may lessen
Which worries do people tend to focus on the most?
in other words, people tend to pay more attention to near-term threats, which loom larger than long-term ones
researchers at cred and elsewhere have discovered that people, even those who might be described as "worrywarts," have a limited capacity for worrying about issues. scholars refer to this limited capacity as a finite pool of worry ,\\x184 and it has three main components that apply to the issue of climate change: 1. because people have a limited capacity for how many issues they can worry about at once, as worry increases about one type of risk, concern about other risks may lessen. in other words, people tend to pay more attention to near-term threats, which loom larger than long-term ones.\\x185 for example, as anxiety mounted in 2008 and 2009 over the faltering economy, polls showed that many people realigned their list of concerns. the economy vaulted to the top of the list, while environmental issues and climate change fell to the bottom. a recent poll showed that climate change ranked last among the public's list of top policy priorities.\\x186
How it affected temperature and net income in the production seasons.?
as expected, temperature and precipitation were found to significantly affect net revenue per hectare across production seasons. the dummies for both irrigated and non-irrigated regions were also statistically significant
What is the estimated parameter for the region?
the parameter estimate for the irrigated region is greater than that of the dryland region indicating higher yields and hence net revenue as irrigation controls for rain fluctuations
What are the values of the time trend?
the negative time trend parameter values indicate the general trend of decline in net revenue per hectare in both regions
as expected, temperature and precipitation were found to significantly affect net revenue per hectare across production seasons. the dummies for both irrigated and non-irrigated regions were also statistically significant. the parameter estimate for the irrigated region is greater than that of the dryland region indicating higher yields and hence net revenue as irrigation controls for rain fluctuations. the estimated parameters of the time trend for both irrigated and dryland farming were negative and statistically significant. the negative time trend parameter values indicate the general trend of decline in net revenue per hectare in both regions. this could be attributed to a number of
How was formulated the study?
the study was formulated as a pilot case for the application of a participatory approach
What did the interaction with communities highlight?
the interactions with communities acutely highlighted the mismatch between topdown policy recommendations and ground-level needs and aspirations
What are solutions?
the replication and refinement of the study methodology can help
the study was formulated as a pilot case for the application of a participatory approach, whereby insights can be gained into vulnerability and adaptive capacity through mutual learning and exchange with the affected communities. the interactions with communities acutely highlighted the mismatch between topdown policy recommendations and ground-level needs and aspirations. it is difficult to reconcile a situation where there is severe lack of water and near abandonment of farming as a livelihood, with the national water policy (2002) which lays emphasis on the sale of water, and the right of the government or gram sabhas to sell excess water. the sharing of modelling results with the community, however, can benefit through the presentation of more dynamic information. the replication and refinement of the study methodology can help
What does temporal SMB variability mean and can be compared to which satellite retrievals?
temporal smb variability, mainly representing precipitation events, can be compared with grace satellite retrievals (horwath and dietrich, 2009; wouters and others, 2013
What are the timings for maximum accumulation and minimum accumulation for AWL ?
for awl, the timing of the maximum accumulation in 2007, and the minimum in 2008, is good
All changes fall within what ?
all changes fall within the combined uncertainties of the model and grace
the previous sections dealt with spatial smb variability. temporal smb variability, mainly representing precipitation events, can be compared with grace satellite retrievals (horwath and dietrich, 2009; wouters and others, 2013). figure 8 shows the detrended mass anomalies for three regions: dml, awl (including byrd glacier basin) and west antarctica. in general, there is reasonable agreement between model and grace temporal variability (shepherd and others, 2012; wouters and others, 2013). for dml, agreement is strong and racmo2.3 shows no significant change in representing the smb variability. for awl, the timing of the maximum accumulation in 2007, and the minimum in 2008, is good, but the amplitude is off. for west antarctica, temporal variability is well simulated by both model versions, although the amplitude is underestimated, but no significant change is found. we conclude that with respect to temporal variability, no significant improvements are seen between racmo2.1 and racmo2.3; all changes fall within the combined uncertainties of the model and grace.
Does harvesting impact our wild resources?
wild resources
Why was Greenland so sustainable?
sustainable
why is harvesting duck eggs important?
harvesting of duck eggs
the ability to practice a sustainable exploitation of wild resources could have been key to effective subsistence in norse greenland. in the faroe islands (fig. 1) a substantial pilot whale hunt has been sustained for at least fi ve centuries, but exploitation takes place within the confi nes of the archipelago, harvesting an extensive pelagic population. the scales are such that it could have been impossible for an island-based kill to compromise the viability of the pilot whale population as a whole in the wider north atlantic. land based birds offer a more sensitive examples because of their potential vulnerability. around lake myvatn in iceland (fig. 1) harvesting of duck eggs is an important local farm activity, with some 10,000 eggs a year collected. new evidence shows that duck eggs were being exploited over 1,000 years ago, and although many different species of adult birds were being killed and eaten as well, zooarchaeological data indicate that waterfowl hunting was avoided, and the ptarmigan lagopus mutus was the focus of hunting efforts (mcgovern et al. in press a thousand years after exploitation began duck populations still fl ourish (because some eggs are always left in the nests to hatch) and, signifi cantly, ptarmigan still endure in the heath and uplands as well. elsewhere in the atlantic this view of sustainable norse practices is reinforced: in the faroe islands, puffi n fratercula arctica make up a signifi cant population of the early archaeofauna at the site of sandur, showing that they were intensively exploited for food, but again populations still fl ourish on the islands (church et al. 2005). the record is not, however, one of universal continuity and endurance as there are notable examples of both localized extinction (walrus colonies no longer occupy the coasts of iceland) and acts of species extinction (the last great auk pinguinus impennis was killed in 1844 a.d. on a small island of eldey off the coast of iceland) (bardarson 1986). the key point is, however, that there is empirical zooarchaeological evidence for practices that began in viking age iceland, at the time icelanders were colonizing greenland that have proved sustainable over more than 1,000 years.
Glaciers are reminiscent of what?
glaciers are also reminiscent of the transitional "other side" of the world where many older stories are set, a winter world where everything, including humans and animals, remains white
These concepts differ from what?
these concepts, of course, differ markedly from those of late 19th century euro-american visitors to this region, and their collisions also tell a story
From where did they make an exploratory journey?
they made an exploratory journey from juneau, alaska inland to the yukon river, and then traveled overland from fort selkirk to the copper river, passing near the area where kitty smith had recently been born
tsisk'w glaciers are also reminiscent of the transitional "other side" of the world where many older stories are set, a winter world where everything, including humans and animals, remains white. these concepts, of course, differ markedly from those of late 19th century euro-american visitors to this region, and their collisions also tell a story. the strangeness of such "beliefs" was reported in an account by flamboyant arctic traveler frederick schwatka, who visited in summer 1891. he was accompanied by the young geologist willard hayes, later chief geologist with the u.s. geological survey from 1905 to 1911 (harris, 1996:24). they made an exploratory journey from juneau, alaska inland to the yukon river, and then traveled overland from fort selkirk to the copper river, passing near the area where kitty smith had recently been born. they hired local guides through glacier country only with great difficulty. as they prepared to cross the klutlan glacier, schwatka dismissively noted in his journal his guides' insistence that "we must not fry grease in our pans...or the ice of the glaciers will tumble in as we cross and kill us all." with anglo-victorian humour, he commented: "we easily catered to this and told them we would forbear oleaginous condiments rather than have a ton of ice tumble on us." he describes their route as "simply frightful," noting that the guides "besought us to make no noise while on the ice or the crevasses would open wider and swallow us up...they firmly resented even our whispering, so fearful were they of its consequences." his conclusion says much about competing knowledge systems that were already being differentiated hierarchically: "before crossing, they all 'made medicine' and no doubt it saved many valuable lives. their fear of glacial ice is too pronounced and manifest to be based on any general physical reasons, and must be accounted for wholly by superstition" (harris, 1996:168-169). this 1891 manuscript was first published in 1996. the editor's footnote at this point indicates that schwatka's comments should be taken as straightforward common sense. "the origin of the pelly river natives' unreasonable or superstitious fear of glacier ice and the connection with frying with grease is not known..." (harris, 1996:169, note 62). and presumably, from this perspective, it is of little significance a century later.
What would happen if the winter condition changed?
changing winter conditions would also significantly impact crop productivity and growth
What does the climate models project about future warming?
climate models project that future warming will be greatest during the winter months
What are the concequences of warmer winters?
with warmer winters, the risk of damage to tree fruit and grape rootstocks will decline substantially in areas such as the southern okanagan valley
changing winter conditions would also significantly impact crop productivity and growth. climate models project that future warming will be greatest during the winter months. with warmer winters, the risk of damage to tree fruit and grape rootstocks will decline substantially in areas such as the southern okanagan valley.(17)however, warmer winters are also expected to create problems for agriculture, especially with respect to pests, because extreme winter cold is often critical for controlling populations. warmer winters may also affect the resilience of crops see box 3). many crops may be more sensitive to changes in the frequency of extreme temperatures than to changes in mean conditions. for example, an extreme hot spell at the critical stage of crop development has been shown to decrease the final yields of annual seed crops (e.g., reference 20) and damage tree fruit such as apples.(17)crops that require several years to establish (e.g., fruit trees) are especially sensitive to extreme events. to date, however, most impact studies have focused on changes in mean conditions, with scenarios of extreme climate events only now being developed. many experts believe that an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme events would be the greatest challenge facing the agricultural industry as a result of climate change. another factor not usually included in modelling of climate change impacts is future changes in wind patterns, mainly because wind projections from gcms are highly uncertain(21)and wind phenomena, in general, are poorly understood. however, wind is clearly an important control on agricultural production, which strongly influences evapotranspiration and soil erosion, especially on the prairies. as such, exclusion of future wind dynamics increases the uncertainty in assessments of climate change impacts. another important consideration for crop production is the observation that recent warming has been asymmetric, with night-time minimums increasing more rapidly than daytime maximums. climate models project that this trend will continue in the future. this type of asymmetric warming tends to reduce crop water loss from evapotranspiration and improve water use efficiency.(22)under such conditions, climate change impacts on crop productivity may be less severe than the impacts predicted assuming equal day and night warming.(23)
What is the argument made in defense of the idea that indigenous people are particularly vulnerable to climate change?
it has also been argued, however, that indigenous livelihoods are resilient because they rely upon multiple resources and a diversity of crops and crop varieties
What are three examples of marginal habitats of indigenous people that, supposedly, makes them vulnerable to climate change?
such as polar regions, desert margins or high altitude areas
What can possibly make a more modern system vulnerable to climate change?
specialization on single resources and mono-cultures with high capital investment render 'modern' systems particularly vulnerable
it has become common currency to argue that indigenous peoples are particularly vulnerable to climate change due to their dependence upon resource-based livelihoods and the location of homelands in marginal habitats, such as polar regions, desert margins or high altitude areas. it has also been argued, however, that indigenous livelihoods are resilient because they rely upon multiple resources and a diversity of crops and crop varieties, whereas specialization on single resources and mono-cultures with high capital investment render 'modern' systems particularly vulnerable. this chapter examines how the terms vulnerability and resilience are defined and deployed in the framework of climate change debates, and how traditional knowledge and practice may reduce vulnerability and reinforce resilience among indigenous peoples.
What is the percentage of Democrats who say that global warming has already begun?
76 percent of democrats
What is the percentage of Republicans who say that global warming has already begun?
42 percent of republicans
For how many years have the partisan gap fluctuated ?
last eight years
the partisan divide in this response has been striking since 2008, when it reached a 34 percentage point difference, with 76 percent of democrats but only 42 percent of republicans saying global warming has already begun. the views of both republicans and democrats tended toward greater skepticism in 2009 and 2010, and have continued to fluctuate noticeably. while the resulting partisan gap has also fluctuated over the last eight years, reaching 41 percentage points in both 2010 and 2015, this past year it was back to 34 percentage points due to a noticeable rise in republicans saying global warming has already begun. clearly there is no overall trend toward reduced polarization, and the now eight-year gulf between republicans and democrats makes the 1997-2002 era of limited partisan differences seem like a
Explain  vulnerability of key systems ?
all three response options rely on information about the vulnerability of key systems to climate change but their specific information needs differ significantly. mitigation and compensation need to distinguish the incremental impacts of anthropogenic climate change from the impacts of natural climate variability since they are primarily concerned with the former; this distinction is less relevant for adaptation
How climate impacts can be very useful for mitigation policy ?
while aggregated estimates of climate impacts can be very useful for mitigation policy (and to some degree for compensation policy), adaptation actors typically require information that is more disaggregated spatially and temporally
Explain Reviews of the interpretation of 'vulnerability' ?
reviews of the interpretation of 'vulnerability' in climate change research have generally identified two different vulnerability concepts. most importantly, o'brien et al. (2004a) distinguish between an 'end-point' and a 'startingpoint' interpretation of vulnerability
adger, 2002 ). all three response options rely on information about the vulnerability of key systems to climate change but their specific information needs differ significantly. mitigation and compensation need to distinguish the incremental impacts of anthropogenic climate change from the impacts of natural climate variability since they are primarily concerned with the former; this distinction is less relevant for adaptation. while aggregated estimates of climate impacts can be very useful for mitigation policy (and to some degree for compensation policy), adaptation actors typically require information that is more disaggregated spatially and temporally. for a more extensive discussion of the evolution of climate change vulnerability assessments, see fu" ssel and klein (2006) the main traditions of vulnerability research discussed in section 3.1 vary in their ability to provide useful information for these three policy contexts. the riskhazard approach is most appropriate to inform mitigation and compensation policy whereas the political economy approach is better suited to informat the design of adaptation policies. however, both approaches need to be extended to account for the large-scale and long-term nature of anthropogenic climate change. integrated frameworks, as the most general category, are capable of providing information for all climate policy options. the pressure-and-release model and the resilience approach have not been widely applied in the climate change context. reviews of the interpretation of 'vulnerability' in climate change research have generally identified two different vulnerability concepts. most importantly, o'brien et al. (2004a) distinguish between an 'end-point' and a 'startingpoint' interpretation of vulnerability. the two roles of vulnerability research underlying these interpretations of vulnerability largely correspond with the two types of adaptation research distinguished by smit et al. (1999) and by burton et al. (2002) table 4 summarizes the main differences between these two interpretations of vulnerability. vulnerability according to the end-point interpretation represents the (expected) net impacts of a given level of global climate change, taking into account feasible adaptations. this interpretation is most relevant in the context of mitigation and compensation policy, for the prioritization of international assistance, and for technical adaptations. it is based on the integrated framework or the risk-hazard framework of vulnerability research (see the discussion below). vulnerability according to the startingpoint interpretation focusses on reducing internal socioeconomic vulnerability to any climatic hazards. this interpretation addresses primarily the needs of adaptation policy and of broader social development. it is largely consistent with the political economy approach. table 4 postulates that the end-point interpretation of vulnerability in climate change research can be based on the risk-hazard approach. the risk-hazard approach has
What is tariffjt ?
more precisely, tariffjt is the recipient country's mean of tariff rates based on data from the world trade organization and the world bank
What is  trade_blocijt?
meanwhile, trade_blocijt is a dummy variable indicating whether the countries are part of the same trade bloc
How are knowledge flows affected?
empirical evidence shows that knowledge flows are affected by distance (peri, 2005), though less than trade flows.xi
the variables tariffjt and trade_blocijt capture the existence of potential barriers to international trade. more precisely, tariffjt is the recipient country's mean of tariff rates based on data from the world trade organization and the world bank. meanwhile, trade_blocijt is a dummy variable indicating whether the countries are part of the same trade bloc. arguably, restrictions to trade may hinder the transfer of technologies embodied in capital equipment goods. as is usual in the trade literature, we also include the log of the geographic distancex between country i and country j, called distanceij. this distance variable is generally viewed as a proxy for transportation costs. empirical evidence shows that knowledge flows are affected by distance (peri, 2005), though less than trade flows.xi
Which city has the greatest waste collection in the world ?
the city with the greatest waste collection in the world is naples
What the major issue which appears due to waste materials?
the dumps in the region are apparently full but the problem is one that will in time lead to major health problems for the citizens, not least because of the increase in rat populations as the waste piles grow
What is the result that came from study of land fills sites in Scotland ?
in the first comprehensive study of the effect of landfill sites on house prices it was found that scottish homes lost a staggering 41% of their value if they were within a quarter of a mile of a site, while in the east midlands only a 10% reduction within a quarter of a mile and 8.75% reduction within half a mile were recorded
there may be a need for more frequent waste collection in certain areas owing to high summer temperatures, and more protection of, and care in selection of, landfill sites. the city with the greatest waste collection in the world is naples which, as a result of systemic corruption in the council and waste collection industry, regularly suffers from garbage strikes. in may 2007 the rubbish had built up to a depth of 3 m on some streets, in some places people had set fire to it and the stink and resulting pollution was all pervasive. the dumps in the region are apparently full but the problem is one that will in time lead to major health problems for the citizens, not least because of the increase in rat populations as the waste piles grow. in the uk 200 000 homes are close to landfill sites and were thought to be worth, on average, ps 5500 less because of the nuisance caused by dust, noise, small vermin, and water and air pollution caused by the neighbouring rubbish dumps. in the first comprehensive study of the effect of landfill sites on house prices it was found that scottish homes lost a staggering 41% of their value if they were within a quarter of a mile of a site, while in the east midlands only a 10% reduction within a quarter of a mile and 8.75% reduction within half a mile were recorded.
What did the earlier studies on interdecadal variability in the Atlantic focus on?
earlier studies on interdecadal variability in the atlantic focused on the role of thermohaline instability
Why were the earlier studies on interdecadal variability in the Pacific philosophically similar to studies on ENSO variability?
earlier studies on interdecadal variability in the pacific were philosophically similar to studies on enso variability in applying a delayed oscillator paradigm with the emphasis on positive ocean-atmosphere feedback and self-exciting variability
Which theory proposed long ago for general climate variability without specific emphasis on preferred oscillation time scales has become dominant in the last decade or so?
stochastic climate theory (hasselmann 1976
our understanding of the mechanisms responsible for interdecadal variability has changed significantly over the last two decades. earlier studies on interdecadal variability in the atlantic focused on the role of thermohaline instability. in contrast, earlier studies on interdecadal variability in the pacific were philosophically similar to studies on enso variability in applying a delayed oscillator paradigm with the emphasis on positive ocean-atmosphere feedback and self-exciting variability. stochastic climate theory (hasselmann 1976), which was proposed long ago for general climate variability without specific emphasis on preferred oscillation time scales, did not receive much attention in the study of interdecadal variability until the last decade or so. now, the stochastic school has become dominant, and interdecadal variability is considered to be stochastically driven to leading order, with ocean-atmosphere feedback playing a minor role. this stochastic view is now
What is the conclusion  of the inter govermental panel on climate change ?
the conclusion of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc 2002) that climate change is now underway and is beginning to have adverse effects, has led to wider acceptance of the necessity for adaptation
Causes of climatic changes ?
the economic losses from extreme climatic events and climate variability, as well as the numbers of people affected, are increasing at a rapid rate and constitute a growing threat to sustainable development goals and poverty reduction
a broad international consensus is building on the need to press forward more vigorously with the adaptation agenda. the conclusion of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc 2002) that climate change is now underway and is beginning to have adverse effects, has led to wider acceptance of the necessity for adaptation. the fact that the impacts of climate change are projected to become much more severe and to affect especially the poorer countries and the poorer people in those countries (ibid.) is adding a greater sense of urgency to the recognized need for action. one of the main reasons why climate change adaptation is now attracting such attention is that is not solely a long-term problem. the economic losses from extreme climatic events and climate variability, as well as the numbers of people affected, are increasing at a rapid rate and constitute a growing threat to sustainable development goals and poverty reduction (e.g. ifrc 2002, sperling ed. 2003). expansion of human settlements into high hazard zones, substandard construction and environmental mismanagement are largely to blame (e.g. white et. al. 2001, unisdr 2002, ifrc 2002), but increasingly the destabilization of the climate system may be a contributing factor (e.g. ipcc 2002, undp 2004). there is neither a scientific basis nor a humanitarian argument for separating losses from climate variability and extremes from longer term - but already ongoing - climate change. they are all part of the same problem of reconciling human development activities with environmental hazards. recent bank experiences and analyses on adaptation (mathur et al. eds. 2004) refer not only to the longer term considerations of how to manage adaptation to a significantly warmer climate in 2050 and beyond, but also, and more importantly, to immediate questions of how current vulnerability to present day climate variability and extremes can be reduced, and how the associated risks can best be managed. to this end it is important to find ways to assist those most at risk and their development partners to take into account one more factor in addition to the well appreciated causes of poverty and vulnerability that are routinely addressed. while there is recognition of the need for action, what is not so clear is how to move forward with adaptation. it is no exaggeration to say that the international community is in
Fill in the Blank: The Forest Service uses a _____ -stage approach to decisions guided by the National Forest Management Act (NFMA) and NEPA
the forest service uses a two-stage approach to decisions guided by the national forest management act (nfma) and nepa
Every national forest and national grassland must develop a forest plan, which is guided by what organization?
every national forest and national grassland must develop a forest plan, which is guided by the nfma
How often are forest plans to be revised?
forest plans are to be amended as necessary and revised at least every 15 years
the forest service uses a two-stage approach to decisions guided by the national forest management act (nfma) and nepa. national forests conduct a variety of assessments within their planning efforts (e.g., roads analysis, landscape assess ments, watershed analysis) (fig. 6). every national forest and national grassland must develop a forest plan, which is guided by the nfma. national forests also use other processes to gather information, such as landscape assessments. water shed vulnerability assessment would be an example of a process (fig. 6, app. 2) that gathers information about climate change and watersheds. forest plans are to be amended as necessary and revised at least every 15 years. the process for the development and revision of the plans (fig. 6), along with prescribed content, is outlined in planning regulations, or the national planning rule, which addresses adherence to nepa. an initiative to develop a new planning rule began in december 2009 with a federal register notice of intent (noi). the noi outlines a process for
When was basic understanding of the maintenance of the atmospheric general circulation achieved, and through which concepts?
the basic understanding of the maintenance of the atmospheric general circulation was achieved nearly sixty years ago by lorenz (1955, 1967) through the concepts of available potential energy and atmospheric energy cycle
What is the effect of a choice of a reference state maximizing entropy at constant energy?
for example, the choice of a reference state maximizing entropy at constant energy dutton 1973) leads in a natural way to the concept of exergy
What is Exergy?
exergy is the part of the internal energy measuring the departure of the system from its thermodynamic and mechanical equilibrium, i.e. ,a state of maximum entropy at constant energy., and is a commonly used concept in heat engines theory rant 1956
the basic understanding of the maintenance of the atmospheric general circulation was achieved nearly sixty years ago by lorenz (1955, 1967) through the concepts of available potential energy and atmospheric energy cycle. the concept of available potential energy, first introduced by margules (1905) to study storms, is defined as a  cp( t - tr) dv where tr is the temperature field of the reference state, obtained by an isentropic redistribution of the atmospheric mass so that the isentropic surfaces become horizontal and the mass between the two isentropes remains the same. by its own definition, this state minimizes the total potential energy at constant entropy. such a definition is somewhat arbitrary and different definitions lead to different formulations of atmospheric energetics tailleux 2013). for example, the choice of a reference state maximizing entropy at constant energy dutton 1973) leads in a natural way to the concept of exergy. exergy is the part of the internal energy measuring the departure of the system from its thermodynamic and mechanical equilibrium, i.e. ,a state of maximum entropy at constant energy., and is a commonly used concept in heat engines theory rant 1956). lorenz (1967) proposed the following picture of the transformation of energy in the atmosphere. we define e p k where k (1 2)  dv r u2repre18
What have oil firms such as Statoil and BP started to do cooperatively?
oil firms such as statoil and bp have also started to invest in carbon capture and storage, but do this cooperatively to spread the risk, thus creating a shared capability instead of an fsa
Which two entities have both invested in clean coal technology and technologies to offset emissions by geological sequestration?
bhp billiton and rio tinto, which have strong positions in the production of coal, both invest in clean coal technology and technologies to offset emissions by geological sequestration
For firms that more heavily rely on the production of coal, climate change is a driver for what?
for firms that more heavily rely on the production of coal, climate change is a driver to develop other transition technologies
for firms that more heavily rely on the production of coal, climate change is a driver to develop other transition technologies. bhp billiton and rio tinto, which have strong positions in the production of coal, both invest in clean coal technology and technologies to offset emissions by geological sequestration (the capture and storage of emissions in underground reservoirs). oil firms such as statoil and bp have also started to invest in carbon capture and storage, but do this cooperatively to spread the risk, thus creating a shared capability instead of an fsa. it thus seems that while the longterm strategies of oil and gas firms would mean a competence-destroying substitution of the complete
What does the use of six RCMs shown?
the use of six rcms has shown that there is no one 'best model' for reproducing mean precipitation and drought statistics across europe and that model skill varies temporally, even on the catchment scale
What does the use of six RCMs has demonstrated?
the use of six rcms has demonstrated the range of uncertainty in future projections of even mean precipitation across europe, but also enables some generalizations
Why are the models particularly poor?
the models are particularly poor in reproducing mean precipitation for the brenta catchment where, although they are able to reproduce spatial differences in the magnitude of precipitation produced by the complex regional topography, they are poor in reproducing spatial variations in the annual precipitation cycle, possibly indicating a poor realization of summer extremes
discussion and conclusions the use of six rcms has shown that there is no one 'best model' for reproducing mean precipitation and drought statistics across europe and that model skill varies temporally, even on the catchment scale. the models are particularly poor in reproducing mean precipitation for the brenta catchment where, although they are able to reproduce spatial differences in the magnitude of precipitation produced by the complex regional topography, they are poor in reproducing spatial variations in the annual precipitation cycle, possibly indicating a poor realization of summer extremes. the use of six rcms has demonstrated the range of uncertainty in future projections of even mean precipitation across europe, but also enables some generalizations
What does Climate change influence?
climate change might be one of many factors infl uencing violence
What countries does climate affect violence?
this association, however, has been observed for example in darfur
Why did the UN recognize Climate Change as a stressor?
coinciding with warming of the indian ocean, average rainfall in southern sudan dramatically fell in recent decades, prompting the un environment programme to recognise that climate change and desertifi cation have been an additional stressor to the population, infl uencing migration to the south and thus might have contributed to the initiation of the confl ict
climate change, population growth, migration, and confl ict are contentious issues. climate change might be one of many factors infl uencing violence,91 but where confl ict occurs between migrant and host populations, it is a result of national identity clashes rather than of migration.92 this association, however, has been observed for example in darfur. coinciding with warming of the indian ocean, average rainfall in southern sudan dramatically fell in recent decades, prompting the un environment programme to recognise that climate change and desertifi cation have been an additional stressor to the population, infl uencing migration to the south and thus might have contributed to the initiation of the confl ict.93
How is the mineral water treatment process with phosphorous
regarding wastewater treatment with phosphorus removal, this can be undertaken by biological and/or physical-chemical processes. biological phosphorus removal from the wastewater is currently consolidated and undertaken in many countries. the process is based on alternating between aerobic and anaerobic conditions, a situation which makes a certain group of microorganisms (phosphate accumulating organisms) assimilate a higher quantity of phosphorus than would be required in their usual metabolic processes. when removing these bacteria from the system in the biological excess sludge, the phosphorus absorbed by them is also removed
How is phosphorus removed?
the process is based on alternating between aerobic and anaerobic conditions, a situation which makes a certain group of microorganisms (phosphate accumulating organisms) assimilate a higher quantity of phosphorus than would be required in their usual metabolic processes
regarding wastewater treatment with phosphorus removal, this can be undertaken by biological and/or physical-chemical processes. biological phosphorus removal from the wastewater is currently consolidated and undertaken in many countries. the process is based on alternating between aerobic and anaerobic conditions, a situation which makes a certain group of microorganisms (phosphate accumulating organisms) assimilate a higher quantity of phosphorus than would be required in their usual metabolic processes. when removing these bacteria from the system in the biological excess sludge, the phosphorus absorbed by them is also removed. with biological p removal, effluents with concentrations of 0.5 mgp/l can be reached, although it is more appropriate to consider a more conservative value of 1.0 mgp/l. chapters 35 and 36 cover in detail the process of biological p removal. phosphorus removal by physical-chemical processes is based on the precipitation of phosphorus after the addition of aluminium sulphate, ferric chloride or lime. the consumption of chemical products and the sludge generation are high. physical-chemical polishing after biological p removal can generate effluents with concentrations in the order of 0.1 mgp/l. b) corrective methods corrective methods that can be adopted can include one or more of the strategies listed in table 3.15 (von sperling, 1995a). whenever possible, greater emphasis should be given to preventive measures, usually cheaper and more effective. impact of wastewater discharges to water bodies 149
What's noted in the effect on the latitudinal temperature distribution?
as noted in the dynamic heat transports influence deglaciation through their effect on the latitudinal temperature distribution
What are the drawbacks of seasonal cycle of the temperature pattern?
these eddies draw their energy from the potential energy associated with the meridional temperature gradient, and they will therefore be greatly affected by the strong seasonal cycle of the temperature pattern
What is defined as a reduction of OLR?
the cloud longwave forcing is defined as the reduction in olr caused by cloud effects, beyond the reduction caused by the clear-sky greenhouse effect
as noted in the dynamic heat transports influence deglaciation through their effect on the latitudinal temperature distribution. in the midlatitudes, the transport is predominantly carried out by transient baroclinic (or ''synoptic'') eddies. these eddies draw their energy from the potential energy associated with the meridional temperature gradient, and they will therefore be greatly affected by the strong seasonal cycle of the temperature pattern. an introduction to the subject may be found in pierrehumbert and swanson [1995]. for the cold snowball climate, energy transport by latent heat is negligable, and only the dry static energy flux needs to be considered. this is given by ftrans g 1h cpt0+ gz0i where cp is the specific heat of air, t is temperature, z is the height of a pressure surface, g is the acceleration of gravity, and angle brackets denote an integral with respect to distance over the latitude circle and with respect to pressure in the vertical pierrehumbert 2002; trenberth and caron 2001]. we shall define transients with respect to the monthly mean, so primed quantites refer to deviations from the corresponding monthly mean quantity. ftrans gives the rate of energy transport across a latitude circle, measured in units of power (typically petawatts, i.e., 1015watts). results for january are shown in figure 7. consonant with the analogy with mars walker 2001], synoptic eddy transports are primarily a winter phenomenon. while they play some role in smoothing out the warm bump near 30s in the summer hemisphere, the fluxes there are very weak compared to those in the winter hemisphere. the winter fluxes are sharply peaked near 30n, and decay rapidly poleward of this latitude. an examination of the full seasonal cycle (not shown) indicates that as the year progresses the flux makes a smooth and continuous transifigure 6. january zonal mean cloud longwave forcing, for various co2. the cloud longwave forcing is defined as the reduction in olr caused by cloud effects, beyond the reduction caused by the clear-sky greenhouse effect.
Where did Dr. Galanti work on his Ph.D. thesis?
dr. galanti worked on his ph.d. thesis, entitled "enso dynamics and predictability - a study using a hybrid-coupled model and the adjoint method" at the weizmann institute
What do Dr. Galanti's research interests include?
his research interests include coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics, mainly with relation to seasonal climate prediction, as well as physical ocean dynamics and thermodynamics
What was Dr. Galanti's focus at the IRI?
at the iri, dr. galanti's focus was on understanding the interannual dynamics of the global tropical oceanatmosphere system, and on setting up an improved dynamical system for the prediction of the global tropical sst
department of geophysics and planetary sciences, tel-aviv university prior to arriving at the iri in october 2003, dr. galanti worked on his ph.d. thesis, entitled "enso dynamics and predictability - a study using a hybrid-coupled model and the adjoint method" at the weizmann institute, under the guidance of prof. eli tzipermann. his research interests include coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics, mainly with relation to seasonal climate prediction, as well as physical ocean dynamics and thermodynamics. at the iri, dr. galanti's focus was on understanding the interannual dynamics of the global tropical oceanatmosphere system, and on setting up an improved dynamical system for the prediction of the global tropical sst.
Which country has taken a bottom-up approach to water management systems?
netherlands
Who have taken on the approach and approved it?
advisory council for transport, public works, and water management
How has the method been welcomed?
the method has proven to be clear and practical, and more important, to support decision makers in dealing with future uncertainties
a bottom-up approach to assess vulnerability of the netherlands water management system to climate change and sea level rise in terms of atps has been successful in answering the basic questions for decision makers: what are the most urgent effects and when will these occur? the results are less dependent on climate projections, than a traditional top-down approach starting from climate scenarios. in addition, an analysis of atps provides a lot of information about the system and its weaknesses. this way it is easier to indicate potential consequences for planned measures in case new climate projections will occur in future. the method has proven to be clear and practical, and more important, to support decision makers in dealing with future uncertainties. the best indication for this is the fact that the results of the approach have been approved by the advisory council for transport, public works, and water management, in an advice to the dutch ministry concerned with water management issues.66
on which aspect the he British government is not infallible?
the british government is not infallible in questions of economic and scientific analysis on global warming
What are the uses of External review and reproducibility?
external review and reproducibility cannot remove all error, but they are essential for ensuring logical reasoning and a respect for opposing arguments
How deviation from the norm of modern science effect the report publishing?
this deviation from the norm of modern science does not necessarily discredit the review but it does mean that fatal flaws in evidence and reasoning, which might have been caught in the early stages under normal ground rules, may emerge after the report has been published
these may be seen as minor points, but they are fundamental for good these may be seen as minor points, but they are fundamental for good science. the british government is not infallible in questions of economic and scientific analysis on global warming, any more than it was in its white paper on weapons of mass destruction in iraq.11 external review and reproducibility cannot remove all error, but they are essential for ensuring logical reasoning and a respect for opposing arguments. from a practical point of view, these cannot be undertaken after the government and scholars involved have publicly staked out a position, so they also protect the authors from correctible mistakes. this deviation from the norm of modern science does not necessarily discredit the review but it does mean that fatal flaws in evidence and reasoning, which might have been caught in the early stages under normal ground rules, may emerge after the report has been published.
Mention few african countries where its people are undernourished ?
sudan, nigeria, senegal, mali, burkina faso, somalia, ethiopia, zimbabwe, chad, sierra leone, angola, mozambique, and niger
Which seems to have a greater potential for reducing the climate consequences of agriculture ?
reducing the demand for animal products--especially for red meat and dairy products--has greater potential for reducing the climate consequences of agriculture
under most climate change scenarios, sudan, nigeria, senegal, mali, burkina faso, somalia, ethiopia, zimbabwe, chad, sierra leone, angola, mozambique, and niger--currently with about 87 million people who are undernourished--are projected to experience a fall in cereal production potential. over the past 30 years, rain across the sahel has already declined by 25%, contributing to hunger from niger to darfur and across to somalia.37 however, most, if not all, of these countries currently operate well below their existing production potential because of a range of factors, mainly political and economic, and could potentially increase their food production with improved policies and practices. the 2007 ipcc report38 and a recent report from a un framework convention on climate change workshop37 project continued drying of sub-saharan africa with mounting eff ects on health, crop yields, livelihoods, refugees, and confl ict. intense extremes and wide sequential swings in weather could mean that cumulative consequences lie in store for nations ill-prepared to adapt to climate change. the prospect that food crops could be diverted to provide biofuels for transportation raises the need to prioritise food security in vulnerable areas and underlines the need for policies that do not reduce food crop production. options that exploit the possible agricultural and forestry investment opportunities arising from increased biofuel markets in high-income countries, and couple them to the development of sustainable land-use policies in low-income countries, need urgent encouragement. fossil energy used directly in agriculture is only about 3-4% of the total consumption in industrial countries, and an even smaller fraction in developing countries. however, food production, especially livestock, is a major source of greenhouse-gas emissions, including methane from ruminant digestion, nitrous oxide from fertiliser use, and carbon dioxide from felled vegetation and exposed soil. indeed when these factors are taken into account, the global emissions from agriculture seem to be greater than those from transport overall.9,39 livestock production is expanding rapidly, especially in low-income and middle-income countries. land clearing to produce livestock feed--eg, soy and corn--compounds the contribution to climate change. because the scope for reducing greenhouse-gas emissions per unit of animal product is currently limited, reducing the demand for animal products--especially for red meat and dairy products--has greater potential for reducing the climate consequences of agriculture. reducing the consumption of such animal products in high-income countries is unlikely to lead to any adverse eff ects on health and would probably result in modest
How does hor weather differ from mortality rates in heat related illnesses?
hot weather has a greater impact on mortality than the number of deaths reported as due to classical heat illness
How many deaths were associated with the July heatwave of 1987 in Greece?
the heatwave in july 1987 in greece was associated with 2000 excess deaths
How do heatwaves affect mortality?
heatwaves are associated with short-term peaks in mortality
hot weather has a greater impact on mortality than the number of deaths reported as due to classical heat illness. heatwaves are associated with short-term peaks in mortality. some heatwave events are very severe and can be considered a disaster if public services are overwhelmed. the heatwave in july 1987 in greece was associated with 2000 excess deaths. 31 in france in 2003, where some 15 000 people died from the heat, the mortuary service and hospitals were unable to cope with the increase in mortality. the mortality impacts of heatwave events have been estimated using episode analyses. attributable mortality is estimated by subtracting the ' expected ' mortality from the observed mortality during a pre-defined period. the expected mortality is calculated using a variety of measures, including moving averages, and averages from similar periods in previous years. estimates are therefore sensitive to the method used to estimate the expected mortality. 32 lower than
What determines energy balance and what is the ultimate cause of seasonal breeding in all mammals?
food availability and ambient temperature determine energy balance, and variation in energy balance is the ultimate cause of seasonal breeding in all mammals and the proximate cause in many
In which type of mammals photoperiodic cueing is found to be common and less common?
photoperiodic cueing is common among long-lived mammals from the highest latitudes down to the mid-tropics. it is much less common in shorter lived mammals at all latitudes
Name the two kinds of seasonal factors that are of concern?
two kinds of seasonal factors are of concern. the first is foraging conditions as they influence energy balance. this is the ultimate cause of seasonal reproduction in all mammals and the proximate cause in many. the second includes predictive cues like photoperiod
section of integrative biology, the university of texas at austin, austin, tx, usa seasonal reproduction is common among mammals at all latitudes, even in the deep tropics. this paper (i) discusses the neuroendocrine pathways via which foraging conditions and predictive cues such as photoperiod enforce seasonality, (ii) considers the kinds of seasonal challenges mammals actually face in natural habitats, and (iii) uses the information thus generated to suggest how seasonal reproduction might be influenced by global climate change. food availability and ambient temperature determine energy balance, and variation in energy balance is the ultimate cause of seasonal breeding in all mammals and the proximate cause in many. photoperiodic cueing is common among long-lived mammals from the highest latitudes down to the mid-tropics. it is much less common in shorter lived mammals at all latitudes. an unknown predictive cue triggers reproduction in some desert and dry grassland species when it rains. the available information suggests that as our climate changes the small rodents of the world may adapt rather easily but the longer lived mammals whose reproduction is regulated by photoperiod may not do so well. a major gap in our knowledge concerns the tropics; that is where most species live and where we have the least understanding of how reproduction is regulated by environmental factors. keywords: seasonality; gonadotropin-releasing hormone; foraging conditions; energy balance; photoperiod; the tropics the world's climate has changed radically from hot to cold and wet to dry and back again throughout its 4.5 billion-year history. when mammals first appeared 250 million years ago, the world was warming and drying out and there was only one landmass in existence, the supercontinent of pangea. some parts of pangea experienced extreme seasonal cycles of climate and food availability, while others did not crowley 1994 ). thus, some of the first mammals probably reproduced only seasonally, while others reproduced throughout the year. as pangea broke up and the new continents spread around the world, the earth's climate continued to shift from one extreme to the other and the expanding numbers of mammals continued to adapt reproductively. the cretaceous mass extinction of 65 ma opened the door to massive adaptive radiation and today more than 4000 species of mammals can be found surviving and reproducing in a huge diversity of habitats, most characterized by some degree of seasonal variation. the world's climate is changing rapidly now and there is a concern that many species may face extinction if they cannot evolve new seasonal strategies bradshaw holzapfel 2006 ). the objectives of this paper are threefold: first, to consider what laboratory experimentation has taught us about the neuroendocrine pathways that link seasonal factors to the reproduction of mammals; second, to relate the knowledge gained in the laboratory to the kinds of challenges mammals actually face in natural habitats; third, to use the information generated by the first two objectives to consider how mammals might or might not adapt seasonally to global climate change. two kinds of seasonal factors are of concern. the first is foraging conditions as they influence energy balance. this is the ultimate cause of seasonal reproduction in all mammals and the proximate cause in many. the second includes predictive cues like photoperiod. the neuroendocrine pathways of concern are those that couple energy balance and cues like photoperiod to neurons in the brain that secrete gonadotropin-releasing hormone (gnrh). the gnrh neurons are distributed widely in the forebrain but most are found in the anterior hypothalamus and pre-optic area. they terminate in the median eminence where gnrh enters the pituitary portal system and regulates the secretion of the gonadotropins. the gonadotropins control the secretion of the gonadal steroids and, in turn, the steroids feed back to control the secretion of the gonadotropins. negative feedback occurs routinely in both sexes and positive feedback results in ovulation in females. despite being widespread in the forebrain, the gnrh neurons are able to act in a synchronized manner, generating distinct pulses in the release of this neuropeptide. thus arises the useful concept of a gnrh pulse generator even though it is not yet completely defined neurologically. the activity of the gnrh pulse generator is often measured by the frequency of pulses of luteinizing hormone (lh) in the blood; few or no pulses are seen in reproductively inactive animals while many are seen in reproductively active animals.
Define traditional stock assessment model?
long-term projections of traditional stock assessment models with environmental data based on ipcc climate change predictions pose some challenges
Where we have to use stock-recruitment relationship?
using the stock-recruitment relationship, for example, may be problematic due to the uncertainty in the robustness of emergent relationships between lmr dynamics and environmental factors in a changing climate (e.g., finney et al., 2010 
Is the available fisheries data are sufficient?
furthermore, in most cases the available fisheries data (section 2.2 are not sufficient to resolve the connections between the population process of interest and environmental factors thought to influence this process, particularly when the effects of environmental change may be confounded by fishing haltuch and punt, submitted for publication 
long-term projections of traditional stock assessment models with environmental data based on ipcc climate change predictions pose some challenges. using the stock-recruitment relationship, for example, may be problematic due to the uncertainty in the robustness of emergent relationships between lmr dynamics and environmental factors in a changing climate (e.g., finney et al., 2010 ). furthermore, in most cases the available fisheries data (section 2.2 are not sufficient to resolve the connections between the population process of interest and environmental factors thought to influence this process, particularly when the effects of environmental change may be confounded by fishing haltuch and punt, submitted for publication ). stocks that show periodic strong recruitment events with little recruitment in between often have only a few strong recruitment events from which to make inferences hamel and stewart, 2009 ). issues such as those described above have engendered an active debate regarding the inclusion of environmental correlates in stock assessment models without a more complete mechanistic understanding of the environment-lmr population interactions myers, 1998 ). 2.3.2. ecosystem approaches a wide range of alternative approaches for modeling lmr dynamics have been developed and can complement and augment traditional single-species stock assessment models for lmr prediction. multispecies stock assessment models integrate the dynamics of several interacting resource stocks, but the dynamical relationships between them remain highly empirical. most of these models attempt to capture the dynamics of several species, simultaneously, usually via a population model (i.e., eq. (1) ), linked via feeding or technical interaction submodels hollowed et al.,
Where does Gravity Aeration take place?
gravity aeration takes place in weirs or in steps in aeration cascades
What is the principal of Gravity Aeration?
the principle of gravity aeration is the use of the potential energy of the water to create gas-liquid interfaces for an efficient gas transfer
What does Anaerobic effluents submitted to the Gravity Aeration releease?
anaerobic effluents submitted to gravity aeration tend to release h2s
in some cases, it may be interesting to increase the do concentration in the effluent from a wastewater treatment plant, aiming at reaching higher concentrations in the water body, at the effluent-river mixing point. a simple way to achieve this is through the process of gravity aeration used in some treatment plants. gravity aeration takes place in weirs or in steps in aeration cascades. effluents from several wastewater treatment processes may benefit from an increased do concentration. however, it should be kept in mind that aeration is a gas transfer process: anaerobic effluents submitted to gravity aeration tend to release h2s, which may cause bad odour and corrosion problems the following text, based on von sperling (1983b) and p"opel (1979), describes the principles and application of gravity aeration. the principle of gravity aeration is the use of the potential energy of the water to create gas-liquid interfaces for an efficient gas transfer. when the water passes over the crest of the weir or cascade, two different gas transfer mechanisms may occur:
What type of systems are most climate models?
most climate models are large dynamical systems
What prevents accurate weather forecasts?
just as "chaos" prevents accurate weather forecasts
A climate model consists of how many variables?
involving a million (or more) variables on big computers
most climate models are large dynamical systems involving a million (or more) variables on big computers. given that they are nonlinear and not perfect, what can we expect to learn from them about the earth's climate? how can we determine which aspects of their output might be useful and which are noise? and how should we distribute resources between making them "better," estimating variables of true social and economic interest, and quantifying how good they are at the moment? just as "chaos" prevents accurate weather forecasts, so model error precludes accurate forecasts of the distributions that define climate, yielding uncertainty of the second kind. can we estimate the uncertainty in our uncertainty estimates? these questions are discussed. ultimately, all uncertainty is quantified within a given modeling paradigm; our forecasts need never reflect the uncertainty in a physical system.
What "parameters" are used to calculate the payoffs?
including output, emissions, damages, the trade technology, and the tariff penalty function
Which algorithm has the author chosen?
i therefore settled on an evolutionary algorithm to find stable coalitions
How does the evolutionary algorithm compare to a genetic algorithm?
this is similar to a genetic algorithm except that it considers mutations of all elements rather than just local searches
finding the equilibrium coalition, as well as determining stability and uniqueness, is computationally demanding. consider a global climate club with n regions. the payoffs are functions of the parameters of the game, including output, emissions, damages, the trade technology, and the tariff penalty function. in addition, the payoffs depend up the participation of each of the other players. in the most general version, discussed above in the section on bottom-up coalitions, there may be multiple coalitions i.e., regional groupings this outcome is seen in trade associations and military alliances formed on the basis of costs, location, and ideologies. in the case of multiple coalitions, there will be on the order of n! possible coalitions. for our study, with 15 regions and multiple regimes, that would consist of about 1012 coalitions and would be computationally infeasible. however, in the case of global climate change, it is more natural to consider a situation where countries decide whether to join a single global climate treaty. assuming a single coalition has the computational advantage that it limits the number of potential coalitions to 2n( or 32,768 coalitions, which can easily be calculated. the problem is combinatorial in nature, and its solution is thought to be in the class of np-hard problems wooldridge and dunne 2004 .there appears to be no efficient algorithm for calculating stable coalitions rahwan 2007 in principle, we would need to take each of the 2n coalitions and determine whether they are stable against all the other 2n- 1 coalitions, which requires about 22 n[?] 109 comparisons. while this is computationally feasible, it is unnecessarily burdensome, particularly for model construction and comparison of regimes. i therefore settled on an evolutionary algorithm to find stable coalitions. this is similar to a genetic algorithm except that it considers mutations of all elements rather than just local searches. this proceeds in the following steps: i start with an initial
What reanalyses-based studies show?
reanalyses-based studies (e.g., janowiak et al. 1998; widmann and bretherton 2000) showed that temporal variability in model-simulated precipitation can be quite realistic while the errors in climatological precipitation remain very large
What is indicated in Fig. 11?
fig. 11. regions where disproportionate changes in heavy and very heavy precipitation during the past decades were documented compared to the change in the annual and/or seasonal precipitation (easterling et al. 2000c, substantially updated
By what thresholds used to define heavy and very heavy precipitation vary?
thresholds used to define heavy and very heavy precipitation vary by season and region
however, reanalyses-based studies (e.g., janowiak et al. 1998; widmann and bretherton 2000) showed that temporal variability in model-simulated precipitation can be quite realistic while the errors in climatological precipitation remain very large. fig. 11. regions where disproportionate changes in heavy and very heavy precipitation during the past decades were documented compared to the change in the annual and/or seasonal precipitation (easterling et al. 2000c, substantially updated). thresholds used to define heavy and very heavy precipitation vary by season and region. however, changes in heavy precipitation frequencies are always higher than changes in precipitation totals and, in some regions, an increase in heavy and/or very heavy precipitation occurred while no change or even a decrease in precipitation totals was observed.
The challenge of addressing the particularities of organisms' interactions with the environment has led to what?
the challenge of addressing the particulars of organisms' interactions with the environment has led to increased attention to spatial and temporal patterns of climate and climate change
What can we identify when characterizing these patterns?
characterizing these patterns can identify the aspects of the physical environment relevant to organisms without the uncertainty of accounting for biological details
What can be addressed when we describe the geography of the climate?
describing the geography of climate can address where disappearing and novel climates occur (williams et al. 2007) and how fast and in what direction an organism would have to move to offset future climate change (loarie et al. 2009
the challenge of addressing the particulars of organisms' interactions with the environment has led to increased attention to spatial and temporal patterns of climate and climate change. characterizing these patterns can identify the aspects of the physical environment relevant to organisms without the uncertainty of accounting for biological details (ackerly et al. 2010). describing the geography of climate can address where disappearing and novel climates occur (williams et al. 2007) and how fast and in what direction an organism would have to move to offset future climate change (loarie et al. 2009). climate metrics relevant to biological impacts include patterns of climate change across space and seasons and the incidence of extreme events.
What is The U.S. Congress, presidential candidates, lobbyists, and political commentators focused on?
the u.s. congress, presidential candidates, lobbyists, and political commentators have focused much of their attention lately on the need for policies to limit the united states' contribution to climate change
what is being debated?
they promote and debate cap-and-trade systems, stricter automobile fuel economy standards, investments in renewable energy and "clean coal," and other policies to change the behavior of energy and manufacturing corporations
How households can reduce energy consumption?
by changing their selection and use of household and motor vehicle technologies, without waiting for new technologies to appear, making major economic sacrifices, or losing a sense of wellbeing, households can reduce energy consumption by almost 30 percent--about 11 percent of total u.s. consumption.3
(updated on december 15, 2009) the u.s. congress, presidential candidates, lobbyists, and political commentators have focused much of their attention lately on the need for policies to limit the united states' contribution to climate change. they promote and debate cap-and-trade systems, stricter automobile fuel economy standards, investments in renewable energy and "clean coal," and other policies to change the behavior of energy and manufacturing corporations. the debates presume that these policies will reverberate through the entire economy, and their advocates seem willing to wait--in some cases for decades--for that to happen. these policy discussions have been strangely silent about a huge reservoir of potential for reducing carbon emissions and mitigating climate change that can be tapped much more quickly and directly.1 u.s. households account for about 38 percent of national carbon emissions through their direct actions, a level of emissions greater than that of any entire country except china and larger than the entire u.s. industrial sector.2 by changing their selection and use of household and motor vehicle technologies, without waiting for new technologies to appear, making major economic sacrifices, or losing a sense of wellbeing, households can reduce energy consumption by almost 30 percent--about 11 percent of total u.s. consumption.3
How do you reconstruct reference nutrient concentrations?
the principal technique developed for this purpose is the use of diatom-total phosphorus transfer functions (e.g. hall smol, 1992; bennion et al. 1996) on the assumption that tp is a strong controlling variable on diatom assemblage composition and abundance
What are the limitations of use of diatom-total phosphorus transfer functions?
the approach has been shown to have limitations, for example when applied to shallow lakes dominated by benthic taxa (e.g.sayer roberts, 2001) or lakes with very high tp (e.g.bennion, 1994
How do you establish the the composition of reference diatom assemblages?
from sediment records
although, as shown above, it is relatively straightforward to establish the composition of reference diatom assemblages from sediment records it is more difficult to reconstruct reference nutrient concentrations. the principal technique developed for this purpose is the use of diatom-total phosphorus transfer functions (e.g. hall smol, 1992; bennion et al. 1996) on the assumption that tp is a strong controlling variable on diatom assemblage composition and abundance. despite the promise of this technique the approach has been shown to have limitations, for example when applied to shallow lakes dominated by benthic taxa (e.g.sayer roberts, 2001) or lakes with very high tp (e.g.bennion, 1994).
Which country is still the worst performing in emissionsdevelopment  of all 58 Index countries?
china
the section measuring the development of emissions remains one of the index's most relevant indicators, as it is relatively sensitive to effective climate policy measures. regarding the described emissions development in china, it is not at all surprising that the country is still the worst performing of all 58 index countries. equally unchanged, luxemburg and ireland remain on top of the list. besides countries like denmark and sweden, which have an overall positive score, the usa, the uk and new zealand also feature in the group of "good" performing states. whereas its emissions level is very high, the development of australia's emissions is "moderate", as is that of mexico, canada and other mainly east european states. in south america, brazil and argentina have a poor development of emissions as well as mainly western european countries, south africa and iran. in this year's index the number of "very poor" performing countries still remains high. according to the bpl data from 2012, some visible changes in this sector may be expected for the assessment period of the next ccpi edition. very good good moderate poor very poor not included in assessment
What is the study of simple correlation analyses ?
investigating relationships between different variables
Usage of PCA ?
to extract the main time-trends from the seasonal abundance time-series of the main mesozooplankton species
Usage of t- tests ?
test for differences in variables between different time-periods
all time-series, except the bsi, were log-transformed to stabilize the variance. missing values in the original timeseries were interpolated using a linear trend regression statsoft, 1996 ). anomaly time-series of seasonal abundances were calculated by subtracting the average of the time-series from the original values. a principal component analysis (pca) was conducted to extract the main time-trends from the seasonal abundance time-series of the main mesozooplankton species. simple correlation analyses were performed for investigating relationships between different variables. to account for autocorrelation in the data, the degrees of freedom (d.f.) in the statistical tests were adjusted using an equation by chelton (1984), modified by pyper and peterman (1998) t-tests were used to test for differences in variables between different time-periods (i.e. 1977 e 1988 vs. 1989 e 2003).
What is essential to the management of health effects of climate change?
the reduction of poverty and inequities in health is essential to the management of health eff ects of climate change
What will not only reduce vulnerability but also release public expenditure for climate change currently consumed by basic prevention strategie?
investment to achieve the millennium development goals will not only reduce vulnerability but also release public expenditure for climate change currently consumed by basic prevention strategies
What are necessary to address the negative public health consequences of climate change in poor countries?
incentives for the development of technologies are necessary to address the negative public health consequences of climate change in poor countries
the reduction of poverty and inequities in health is essential to the management of health eff ects of climate change. vulnerability of poor populations will be caused by greater exposure and sensitivity to climate changes and reduced adaptive capacity. investment to achieve the millennium development goals will not only reduce vulnerability but also release public expenditure for climate change currently consumed by basic prevention strategies (eg, malaria control). health-oriented and climate-orientated investments in food security, safe water supply, improved buildings, reforestation, disaster risk assessments, community mobilisation, and essential maternal and child health and family planning services, will all produce dividends in adaptation to climate change. poverty alleviation and climate adaptation measures will be crucial in reducing population growth in countries where demographic transition (to stable and low fertility and death rates) is delayed. population growth will increase overall emissions in the long term and expand the number of vulnerable individuals (and thus the potential burden of suff ering) greatly. the application of existing technologies is as important as the development of new ones. nonetheless, technological development is needed to boost food output, to maintain the integrity of ecosystems, and to improve agricultural and food system practices (agriculture is responsible for an estimated 22% of greenhouse gas emissions), to improve systems for safely storing and treating water, to use alternative supplies of water, for waste water recycling and desalination, and for water conserving technologies. it is also needed to create buildings that are energy effi cient and use low-carbon construction materials; to allow for planning settlements, and to develop software of planning and land use; to increase regional and local climate modelling, creating eff ective early warning systems, and the application of geographic information systems; and to ensure the provision of existing health and family planning services at high coverage, and thus ensure the rights of individuals and couples to have good health outcomes and access to voluntary family planning methods. incentives for the development of technologies are necessary to address the negative public health consequences of climate change in poor countries. in the pharmaceutical sector, rich markets generate vigorous research and drug development activities, whereas poor markets have been mainly ignored. public funding for investment in developing green technologies for poor markets will be essential. the biggest sociopolitical challenge aff ecting the success of climate change mitigation is the lifestyle of those living in rich nations and a small minority living in
Why is there difficulty in making successful predictions about disease transmission due to potential environmental changes?
the difficulty in making successful predictions about disease transmission due to potential environmental changes is the paucity of available information on the mechanisms controlling and influencing specific components of the complex vector-pathogen-host cycle
What is vector competence?
vector competence is the susceptibility of the vector to infection with the pathogen and the ability of the infected vector to transmit the pathogen to a host during blood feeding
What is a key component in the vector-pathogen cycle?
vector competence is a key component in the vector-pathogen cycle
gauging the direct influence of the environment on vectors, pathogens, hosts and vector-borne disease episystems is a difficult challenge. predicting the consequences of future environments and future climate changes on current episystems or the potential for the development of new episystems is much more difficult. tabachnick explored the issues and challenges to predicting emerging vector-borne pathogen transmission in different regions of the world and the consequences associated with the purposeful of modified vectors to prevent pathogen transmission (tabachnick, 1998; tabachnick, 2003). the difficulty in making successful predictions about disease transmission due to potential environmental changes is the paucity of available information on the mechanisms controlling and influencing specific components of the complex vector-pathogen-host cycle. this is illustrated by the lack of information about mechanisms controlling vector competence for specific pathogens. vector competence is the susceptibility of the vector to infection with the pathogen and the ability of the infected vector to transmit the pathogen to a host during blood feeding. vector competence is a key component in the vector-pathogen cycle. there are many examples of both genetic and environmental variation causing variation in vector competence between vector species, populations and between individual vectors (beerntsen et al., 2000; tabachnick, 1994). however, the complexity of genetic and environmental effects on vector competence has hardly been explored. the specific genes influencing vector competence in nature are virtually unknown. the array of vector competence phenotypes produced by various genotypes in different environments, the norm of reaction of the genotype, have yet to be thoroughly characterized (tabachnick, 2003). the complexity of the effects of the environment on a vectorborne pathogen is illustrated by culex pipiens quinquefasciatus say competence for wnv. culex p. quinquefasciatus infection with wnv increases with temperature. however, the influence of temperature changes due to the age of the adult, due to the virus
To whom the thanks goes to?
our thanks go to jan minx, ellie farahani, susanne kadner, kristin seyboth, anna adler, ina baum, steffen brunner, patrick eickemeier, benjamin kriemann, jussi savolainen, steffen schlomer, christoph von stechow, and timm zwickel, for their professionalism, creativity and dedication to coordinate the report writing and to ensure a final product of high quality
They are the staff from which unit?
of the working group iii technical support unit
last but not least, it is a pleasure to acknowledge the tireless work of the staff of the working group iii technical support unit. our thanks go to jan minx, ellie farahani, susanne kadner, kristin seyboth, anna adler, ina baum, steffen brunner, patrick eickemeier, benjamin kriemann, jussi savolainen, steffen schlomer, christoph von stechow, and timm zwickel, for their professionalism, creativity and dedication to coordinate the report writing and to ensure a final product of high quality. they were assisted by hamed beheshti, siri chrobog, thomas day, sascha heller, ceren hic, lisa israel, daniel mahringer, inga romer, geraldine satre-buisson, fee stehle, and felix zoll, whose support and dedication are deeply appreciated.
Where did she got a Ph.D. in Earth Sciences from?
the university of geneva, switzerland
What is her field of interest?
multi-hazard and risk analysis and management through integration of geographical information systems and geophysical modeling considering the physical, social and human aspects of disasters
dr. mosquera-machado attended moscow state university in russia and was awarded a bachelor's degree in physics and a m.s. degree in physics and mathematics"geophysicist" with specialization in seismology in 1991. she received a postgraduate certificate in geological risk management from geneva university and west indies mona campus in jamaica in 1998. in 2002, she was awarded a ph.d. in earth sciences from the university of geneva, switzerland. her field of interest is multi-hazard and risk analysis and management through integration of geographical information systems and geophysical modeling considering the physical, social and human aspects of disasters. prior to joining the iri, she was a program manager at the world institute for disaster risk management in alexandria, virginia.
what does Nk refer to?
nk is the number of observational data points for tracer k
who helped build and refine the UVic ESCM model ?
scientists who compiled the data sets utilized in this study, and who helped to build and refine the uvic escm model
who provided the model ?
michael eby and other uvic escm model developers
here sp k 2 sk 2/(1  rk 2) is stationary process variance, nk is the number of observational data points for tracer k and wt k t k  rkt  1, k, t 1 are whitened errors. acknowledgments. we thank michael eby and other uvic escm model developers for providing the model and for helpful discussions. very productive and thought-provoking discussions with david pollard, sham bhat, andreas schmittner, and chris forest are gratefully acknowledged. this work would not have been possible without the contributions from scientists who compiled the data sets utilized in this study, and who helped to build and refine the uvic escm model. we thank two anonymous reviewers and k. tanaka for very insightful and helpful reviews of the manuscript. this work was partially supported by nsf and usgs, as well as by the canadian foundation for climate and atmospheric sciences (cfcas gr-7059). all errors, views, and opinions are solely those of the authors.
What has an important role in protecting coasts from storm and tsunami damage?
mangroves have an important role in protecting coasts from storm and tsunami damage
What can strongly influence surface elevation of wetlands through erosion, deposition and subsurface processes that can subsequently influence rates of recovery?
intense storms can strongly influence surface elevation of wetlands through erosion, deposition and subsurface processes that can subsequently influence rates of recovery
What tree species are particularly vulnerable to cyclones?
tree species differ in their response to cyclones, with species from the rhisophoraceae being particularly vulnerable as they are unable to resprout
mangroves have an important role in protecting coasts from storm and tsunami damage169,119,123,60,63. most tropical ports in australia recommend small craft use mangroves as protection in the event of cyclones. for example, from the port douglas cyclone protection plan 'the creeks and waterways off dicksons inlet, within the mangrove areas, offer the best shelter/protection for small vessels'f. storms can have a large impact on mangroves, with catastrophic destruction being observed in the caribbean and bangladesh169,120,42, often with very slow recovery161,136, or none at all42. intense storms can strongly influence surface elevation of wetlands through erosion, deposition and subsurface processes that can subsequently influence rates of recovery36. quantitative data from australia on impacts of cyclones on mangroves, and their recovery are rare24,189. data from the caribbean indicate mangroves can recover from severe storm damage providing patches of reproductive trees remain, and hydrology and sediments are not altered to an extent where reestablishment is prevented169,80,161. tree species differ in their response to cyclones, with species from the rhisophoraceae being particularly vulnerable as they are unable to resprout16. the effects of cyclones on fauna associated with mangroves in australia are not known, but loss of mangroves from human disturbances in kenya and malaysia resulted in declines in diversity and abundance of fauna (reviewed in manson et al.118).
What is the IPCC definition of vulnerability to climate change?
the ipcc defines vulnerability to climate change as follows: the degree to which a system is susceptible, or unable to cope with adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes, and vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity
What approach does the IPCC definition accommodate?
the ipcc definition accommodates the integrated vulnerability assessment approach
What two indicators are used to assess vulnerability in this study?
our study is based on that approach, which considers both the biophysical and the socioeconomic indicators in assessing vulnerability
the ipcc's (2001) definition of vulnerability was adopted for this study by adapting it to the ethiopian context. the ipcc defines vulnerability to climate change as follows: the degree to which a system is susceptible, or unable to cope with adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes, and vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity. as indicated earlier, because the ipcc definition accommodates the integrated vulnerability assessment approach, our study is based on that approach, which considers both the biophysical and the socioeconomic indicators in assessing vulnerability. figure 1 shows the conceptual framework of vulnerability for this study. figure 1. conceptual framework to vulnerability assessment
Aside from climate change, what two other factors will also change through the course of time?
however, integration of biotic interactions and land use into estimates of future species distributions remains highly challenging. in large part, the difficulty derives from the reality that, in addition to changes in climate, these two other driving factors themselves likely will change
What do dispersal/demographic simulations require?
furthermore, dispersal/demographic simulations require detailed species-specific information (e.g., regarding dispersal ability, population growth rates, biotic interactions, genetic differences, and tolerance to human environmental modifications). the ramifications of geneticadaptations,acrossbothspaceandtime,represent an area seldom considered by current studies, yet one likely to prove of considerable importance for many species. in addition to increased collection of relevant ecological and genetic information, the situation calls for research into scenarios for future land use and the development of algorithms capable of simulating the dispersal and demography of multiple interacting species simultaneously. more generally, a synthesis is needed between research that builds upon single-species models to integrate biotic interactions (as here), and that focusing on community-level processes.4,117,118together, these challenges pose exciting opportunities for theoretical and computational advancements
What kind of data do researchers need to focus on?
n tackling them, researchers may find inspiration and motivation by recalling the high societal need for forecasts of future species distributions, which likely will prove feasible on a large scale only via correlative niche models harnessing occurrence data from natural history museums, herbaria, and other reservoirs of primary biodiversity information
however, integration of biotic interactions and land use into estimates of future species distributions remains highly challenging. in large part, the difficulty derives from the reality that, in addition to changes in climate, these two other driving factors themselves likely will change. furthermore, dispersal/demographic simulations require detailed species-specific information (e.g., regarding dispersal ability, population growth rates, biotic interactions, genetic differences, and tolerance to human environmental modifications). the ramifications of geneticadaptations,acrossbothspaceandtime,represent an area seldom considered by current studies, yet one likely to prove of considerable importance for many species. in addition to increased collection of relevant ecological and genetic information, the situation calls for research into scenarios for future land use and the development of algorithms capable of simulating the dispersal and demography of multiple interacting species simultaneously. more generally, a synthesis is needed between research that builds upon single-species models to integrate biotic interactions (as here), and that focusing on community-level processes.4,117,118together, these challenges pose exciting opportunities for theoretical and computational advancements. in tackling them, researchers may find inspiration and motivation by recalling the high societal need for forecasts of future species distributions, which likely will prove feasible on a large scale only via correlative niche models harnessing occurrence data from natural history museums, herbaria, and other reservoirs of primary biodiversity information.16-18,119
What effects will Climate Change have on municipal finances?
climate change will impact municipal finances both on the revenue and the expenditure sides
What expense will extreme events have on municipal finances?
extreme events will increase expenditures on protection services and insurance
What will have if municipal tax bases not increased?
debt dependence may worsen if the municipal tax base and/or provincial transfers are not increased
climate change will impact municipal finances both on the revenue and the expenditure sides. on the revenue side, as land use or agricultural crops may have to be modified due to climate change (e.g. more corn, more soybeans, less hay; see section 3.1 infra ), property taxes will be affected either positively or negatively according to the revenue stream generated by the new land use; user fees could increase considerably if water consumption were charged at its incremental cost (full-cost pricing). development charges may also increase if full cost pricing is implemented. public private patnerships and developer financing should also increase for capital projects due to the new defined 'character' of municipalities as 'business'. debt dependence may worsen if the municipal tax base and/or provincial transfers are not increased. if both the provincial and federal governments implement climate change mitigation, provincial and federal transfers to municipalities will increase. on the expenditure side, environmental services, both capital and operating expenditures, are expected to increase considerably due to required investment in new or in replacement of built municipal water-related infrastructure. environmental services also include water supply, wastewater treatment, garbage collection and recycling, storm water system, etc. well water protection expenditures may have to increase as well. extreme events will increase expenditures on protection services and insurance. large-scale service realignment has increased the financial burden of the municipalities many folds. a variety of financial options could be very helpful in redistributing municipal financial priorities: options that could redirect short-term versus long-term funds and spawn partnerships; grants that can impact municipal funding sources and program decisions remain unknown to some municipal administrations. climate change adaptation should not be seen simply as a new financial burden; rather it should provide another argument for easing municipalities' access to long term financing. 3. climate projections and scenarios and natural and built infrastructure17
what did Eckhart (2005) show?
eckhart (2005) showed that biotic interactions contributed the most to the decreased fitness of an annual herb outside of its existing range
what can biotic range limits prevent?
biotic range limits could prevent direct ecological or evolutionary responses to climate change that would occur in the absence of biotic interactions. moreover, these biotic range limits will be set dynamically as the species distributions underlying them respond to the climate and other species
what could happen if the alteration of species interactions along climate gradients?
the alteration of species interactions along climate gradients could induce selection on additional traits that might have limited genetic variation, with consequent effects on community structure and responses to climate change
eckhart (2005) showed that biotic interactions contributed the most to the decreased fitness of an annual herb outside of its existing range. if biotic interactions commonly play such a defining role in range boundaries, then our job becomes that much more difficult - we cannot just predict responses to climate change based solely on climatic sensitivity. for example, these biotic range limits could prevent direct ecological or evolutionary responses to climate change that would occur in the absence of biotic interactions. moreover, these biotic range limits will be set dynamically as the species distributions underlying them respond to the climate and other species. the alteration of species interactions along climate gradients could induce selection on additional traits that might have limited genetic variation, with consequent effects on community structure and responses to climate change (berg et al. 2010). whereas a species might adapt quite readily to a new climate, they might not adapt so well to climateinduced changes in species interactions. if we know little about the genetic variation needed to respond to climate change, then we know even less about the genetic variation needed to confront altered species interactions. we do not have much evidence yet for these effects, and the effort needed to document them is daunting. however, we suspect that the evolutionary responses of many interacting species, even those involved in diffuse, indirect interactions, might alter predictions about communitylevel consequences (case and taper 2000; berg et al. 2010). insights from evolving metacommunities applied to climate change to suppose that dispersal, adaptation, and community interactions will operate independently on species' responses to climate change would certainly be convenient, but false. ignoring the potential interactions among these changing factors could easily produce inaccurate predictions. the likelihood that ecological and evolutionary factors will interact to produce unexpected results is high because fitness links these dynamics across the same temporal and spatial scales and because dispersal simultaneously changes gene flow and species colonization rates. we next address the critical question: do interactions among evolutionary and community dynamics in space affect predicted responses to climate change? five theoretical studies combine adaptation, species interactions, and environmental change (table 1), though collectively they cover only a narrow range of potential eco-evolutionary dynamics. all models focus on competition. two models ignore effects of dispersal even though we show this to be a critical feature of natural systems and an important determinant of evolving
Can numerical weather forcasting represent the complexity of the real atmosphere?
though remarkably successful, can never fully represent the complexity of the real atmosphere
What type of structure should you choose during a wind storn?
choose a robust building
What are the most dangerous buildings to remain in durning a wind storm?
lightweight buildings with thin glazed or clad skins
we must remember, too, that the mathematical models used in numerical weather forecasting, though remarkably successful, can never fully represent the complexity of the real atmosphere. and complete observational coverage of the atmosphere over the oceans west and south of the british isles will probably never be achieved. the question here is: will people be given enough warning time to evacuate an area? in some cases, the answer is no. if they have to remain in a city in an extreme windstorm they should be very careful to choose a robust building and never remain in a brittle one. lightweight buildings with thin glazed or clad skins may be the most dangerous buildings to remain in, as evidenced in figure 5.3 people should take time to choose wisely and shelter in a low heavy building with smaller windows and solid walls to protect them.
What characteristic features have been observed in the mean temperatures of the arrival period 20 April-25 May ?
the mean temperatures of the arrival period 20 april-25 may have risen during 1970-2002 in southern and central europe, but at the two northernmost sites (va"xjo" in se sweden and breeding area) the trend is less obvious
How was the mean May temperature of the breeding area or NAO ?
mean may temperature of the breeding area or nao did not show any significant trends during 1970-2002 
The temperatures for 20 April-25 May were intercorrelated over a wide geographical area. What did the  correlations show?
the temperatures for 20 april-25 may were intercorrelated over a wide geographical area, but the strength of the correlations weakened with increasing distance between the sites (appendix). temperatures (20 april-25 may
the mean temperatures of the arrival period 20 april-25 may have risen during 1970-2002 in southern and central europe, but at the two northernmost sites (va"xjo" in se sweden and breeding area) the trend is less obvious (table 1a). mean may temperature of the breeding area or nao did not show any significant trends during 1970-2002 (table 1a). the temperatures for 20 april-25 may were intercorrelated over a wide geographical area, but the strength of the correlations weakened with increasing distance between the sites (appendix). temperatures (20 april-25 may) of bron lyon, bamberg, hamburg, va"xjo" and turku were positively correlated with nao, while those of locations south of the alps and pyrenees were not (appendix).
Where is the research projected?
the research project outlined above is an innovative and valuable initiative which could be usefully replicated, especially in sub-saharan africa
Is there any research found on the project?
there has been no documented research that has specifically set out to ask women what they want information on the specific challenges and strategies
What is considered to be required for women?
this requires investment in building the capacity of women to have the skills and confidence to engage with climate change debates at the local, national, regional and international levels
the research project outlined above is an innovative and valuable initiative which could be usefully replicated, especially in sub-saharan africa, where to our knowledge there has been no documented research that has specifically set out to ask women what they want information on the specific challenges and strategies adopted by women in urban contexts is also sparse: participatory research in diverse urban contexts should be a priority. this requires investment in building the capacity of women to have the skills and confidence to engage with climate change debates at the local, national, regional and international levels, for example though advocacy training (see also the next section on mitigation). additional obstacles
What is more amicable to cut on transportation cost of biomass?
a more distributed network of smaller plants will be more amenable to both lower transport costs and possibly also greater utilisation of process heat close to areas of heat demand
How do we calculate the mean transportation distance?
to calculate the mean transportation distance, we calculate how many 1gw (feedstock higher heating value (hhv)) capacity pyrolysis plants would be required to convert the biomass. we estimate that these are distributed evenly across an area of 6.6 gha, calculated by summing the area of all grid cells on a 5' of arc raster map of the globe that contain some cropland (fig. s7). we then calculate the mean separation (s) between plants as the square root of the area served by each plant. the mean transport distance (d) for both biomass and biochar is then calculated as d=s/2
the worst-case scenario for transport costs will occur when pyrolysis plant size is large, requiring biomass to be transported to a central facility from a large area. to provide a conservative estimate, we base our transport costs on this worst case, whilst recognising that, in practice, a more distributed network of smaller plants will be more amenable to both lower transport costs and possibly also greater utilisation of process heat close to areas of heat demand. we do not, therefore, propose that a network of large, highly centralised plants as assumed for this calculation will be the most likely or economic form of infrastructure, but make this assumption only to remain true to our aim of making conservative assumptions where possible. to calculate the mean transportation distance, we calculate how many 1gw (feedstock higher heating value (hhv)) capacity pyrolysis plants would be required to convert the biomass. we estimate that these are distributed evenly across an area of 6.6 gha, calculated by summing the area of all grid cells on a 5' of arc raster map of the globe that contain some cropland (fig. s7). we then calculate the mean separation (s) between plants as the square root of the area served by each plant. the mean transport distance (d) for both biomass and biochar is then calculated as d=s/2, a value that accounts for indirect routing of roads by assuming that the distance travelled between two points (x,y) and (0,0) is given by x+y as it would be if roads were set out on an orthogonal grid. transport energy per kilometre is then calculated according to the uk average road-freight consumption of 2.2 mj mg-1 km-1 (ref. 117). although this is a somewhat crude estimate, given that according to these calculations transport energy contributes less than 2% of the overall ghg budget, a more sophisticated analysis is unlikely to affect the overall results greatly. this is supported by analysis of the greenhouse gas balance from charcoal production, in which transport emissions were found to be a negligible component3
What did the snapshot show about the relationship between the use of space in a typical hot summer day and the  fluctuation of air temperature?
this snapshot of the use of space in a typical hot summer day appears to follow a course inverse of the fluctuation of air temperature in the diurnal pattern
What was the effect of psychological adaptation and particularly past experience and expectations in this framework?
when the previous days, however, have been characterised by high air temperatures, people have been used to it, they expect it to be hot in the specific climatic context, are aware of what actions to take to improve their comfort state, and thus are not particularly bothered by it
What is explained by the effect of psychological adaptation and particularly past experience and expectations?
this explains why air temperature of 30@c is regarded as relatively cool in a day when maximum air temperature reached 35 @c, with outdoor activity, as evident from the increased presence of people in the square, reaching high levels
this snapshot of the use of space in a typical hot summer day appears to follow a course inverse of the fluctuation of air temperature in the diurnal pattern. it is also worth pointing out the effect of psychological adaptation and particularly past experience and expectations in this framework, which has been extensively analysed in [13, 14] and in the context of the current field surveys in the range of 30-32 @c air temperature would normally be regarded as a deterrent for any outdoor activities. when the previous days, however, have been characterised by high air temperatures, people have been used to it, they expect it to be hot in the specific climatic context, are aware of what actions to take to improve their comfort state, and thus are not particularly bothered by it. this explains why air temperature of 30@c is regarded as relatively cool in a day when maximum air temperature reached 35 @c, with outdoor activity, as evident from the increased presence of people in the square, reaching high levels.
True or False: RCM complications always produce the same result?
an additional complication is that even when different rcms are run with the same boundary conditions, there are instances in which differences across different rcms are rather large (e.g., for extreme events66,67), even when the changes in mean quantities are comparable
What enhances the usefulness of RCM results?
stakeholder dialogue can enhance the usefulness of rcm results in impact research and adaptation efforts
Are climate data users more familiar with gridded or pointwise data?
also the aforementioned difference between modeled (gridded) and observed station (pointwise) data is an issue as many climate data users are familiar with the latter
an additional complication is that even when different rcms are run with the same boundary conditions, there are instances in which differences across different rcms are rather large (e.g., for extreme events66,67), even when the changes in mean quantities are comparable.68this can signify small or otherwise an uncertain magnitude of a climate change signal in a concerned extreme, and also reflects individual model uncertainty. in many of the individual studies and not least within co-ordinated projects, regional climate modeling efforts have managed to act as a bridge to impact studies on hydrology, energy, glaciers, agriculture, forestry, ecosystems, spatial planning, air quality, etc. stakeholder dialogue can enhance the usefulness of rcm results in impact research and adaptation efforts.69also, the limitations of an rcm vis-`a-vis sampling (number of runs and iv), systematic biases, etc. need to be both communicated and recognized. also the aforementioned difference between modeled (gridded) and observed station (pointwise) data is an issue as many climate data users are familiar with the latter.
What are a few autumn flowers?
hesperantha (river lily), elaeagnu s (oleaster) heptacodium (seven-son-flower) and epilobium (zauschneria
Which is the largest collection of evergreens at UBC Botanical Garden?
bamboos
Who donated Bamboo Botanicals Garden Nursery?
bamboo collector and former botanical garden horticulturist, samuel normandeau
november's heavy hand often deals a death blow to the softer flowers and foliage that we enjoy through the early autumn. it isn't technically winter in november, but it often feels that way. we're lucky if the cold weather holds off so we can continue to enjoy the autumn flowers of hesperantha (river lily), elaeagnu s (oleaster) heptacodium (seven-son-flower) and epilobium (zauschneria) for a little longer. luckily, we have autumn-tinted leaves and plenty of colourful fruits to carry us when the weather turns nasty. but take a minute to consider all of evergreen foliage around us. it comes in a vast range of sizes, shapes, textures and shades of green. in our obsession for colour (other than green) in the garden we often take these important plants for granted. one need only spend a winter in a colder climate to be reminded of the value of the diversity of broad-leaved evergreens we can grow in vancouver. on a long list of evergreens at ubc botanical garden, bamboos stand out as one of our larger collections. located primarily in the david c. lam asian garden (there are also bamboos in nitobe memorial garden), our bamboos comprise older established plants and a number that are more recently acquired. a large proportion came to the garden as a gift from matt lang and his company, bamboo botanicals garden nursery and some exceptional specimens were also donated by bamboo collector and former botanical garden horticulturist, samuel normandeau read more on our blog
What the four authors discovered from their studies ?
as a test of the consistency and repeatability of our scoring system, the four authors of this study independently completed the two vulnerability modules for 20 species found in the lower klamath basin (below iron gate dam) in northern california, using the same sources of information (e.g., [10-12,18]). two of the scorers (p.b.m and r.m.q) had considerable familiarity with the fishes of the basin, while the two others (j.d.k and p.k.c) had more expertise on fishes of other regions
What is described in the table 3 and 4?
scores generated independently for both the baseline (total vb; table 3) and climate change (total vc; table 4) modules were largely concordant and inter-expert scores ranged from 0 to 7 points, with one exception (i.e., the poorly studied klamath river lamprey entosphenus similis table 3
What has happened with the given scored?
given that scores fall on a continuum of vulnerability, it was not uncommon for one or more reviewer to produce a score that resulted in a species being assigned to a different (i.e., higher or lower) vulnerability category
as a test of the consistency and repeatability of our scoring system, the four authors of this study independently completed the two vulnerability modules for 20 species found in the lower klamath basin (below iron gate dam) in northern california, using the same sources of information (e.g., [10-12,18]). two of the scorers (p.b.m and r.m.q) had considerable familiarity with the fishes of the basin, while the two others (j.d.k and p.k.c) had more expertise on fishes of other regions. scores generated independently for both the baseline (total vb; table 3) and climate change (total vc; table 4) modules were largely concordant and inter-expert scores ranged from 0 to 7 points, with one exception (i.e., the poorly studied klamath river lamprey entosphenus similis table 3). nonetheless, given that scores fall on a continuum of vulnerability, it was not uncommon for one or more reviewer to produce a score that resulted in a species being assigned to a different (i.e., higher or lower) vulnerability category.
What was the Water quality sampling method used for the collection of the second data set that began in the spring of 2005?
automated water samplers were used to collect composite daily samples (four 250 ml sub-samples
What watershed research was done to examine the aftereffects of the 2003 Lost Creek wildfire?
seven research watersheds were established shortly after the fire. hydrometric and water quality sampling stations were installed at the outlet of each watershed to document changes in water quantity and quality. three burned (south york, lynx, and drum creeks) and two unburned (reference) watersheds (star and north york creeks) were established prior to the first post-fire spring snowmelt in march e april 2004 and two additional burned and salvage-logged watersheds were added in january 2005 (lyons creek east and west
What are the ORB headwaters forests' landscape-associated water quality impacts representative of?
landscape associated impacts on water quality in the headwaters forests of the orb are representative of increasing pressures related to land use change in many regions of north america
the oldman, crowsnest, and castle rivers flow eastward from the rocky mountain headwaters of the orb, which has been closed to the issuing of new water extraction licenses due to a growing imbalance between demand and supply. hydrologically, the southern rockies in alberta are the highest water yielding region of the province. landscape associated impacts on water quality in the headwaters forests of the orb are representative of increasing pressures related to land use change in many regions of north america. during july e september 2003, the lost creek wildfire burned more than 21,000 ha in the headwaters of the castle and crowsnest rivers, consuming practically all forest cover and floor organic matter in the burned watersheds. seven research watersheds were established shortly after the fire. hydrometric and water quality sampling stations were installed at the outlet of each watershed to document changes in water quantity and quality. three burned (south york, lynx, and drum creeks) and two unburned (reference) watersheds (star and north york creeks) were established prior to the first post-fire spring snowmelt in march e april 2004 and two additional burned and salvage-logged watersheds were added in january 2005 (lyons creek east and west). watersheds selected for study did not have significant historical logging disturbance prior to the fire. a multi-level hydrometric and water quality sampling program was employed to balance measurement of weather, streamflow, and water quality while optimizing the logistical and financial constraints of working in this remote environment. details regarding the area, elevation, extent of burn, and hydrometric sampling program (categorized into three dominant flow periods: baseflow/non-event [summer and winter], snowmelt freshet, and stormflow [resulting from rainfall in each watershed]) are described in bladon et al. (2008), silins et al. (2009, in review) water quality sampling involved collection of two separate (overlapping) data sets. the first data set was collected using manual (depth integrated) sampling consisting of instantaneous discharge and water quality measurements every 10 days during snowmelt freshet, every 14 days after the freshet during the ice-free periods, and approximately every 1 e 2 months throughout winter. periodic storm events were also sampled. collection of a second, continuous data set began in the spring of 2005. automated water samplers were used to collect composite daily samples (four 250 ml sub-samples
How are marginal damage estimates determined?
marginal damage estimates are inferred by using assumptions about emissions/concentration relationships, climate adjustment and sensitivity, climate damages (inferred from a point estimate by using functional form assumptions), and discount rates
What specific factor is being quantified by these marginal damage estimates?
tol (2009) conducts several meta-analyses of marginal damage estimates, reporting a median of $4- 20 per ton of co2, and a mean of $28-35 per ton across the different analyses (studies within a meta-analysis are not independent, however, often drawing from the same sources and from each other
Do these marginal damage estimates for CO2 levels differ between different estimators?
especially striking is the difference between stern (2007) at $85 and nordhaus (2008) at $8 per ton of co2--a difference largely dependent on discount rate assumptions (see below
marginal damage estimates are inferred by using assumptions about emissions/concentration relationships, climate adjustment and sensitivity, climate damages (inferred from a point estimate by using functional form assumptions), and discount rates. tol (2009) conducts several meta-analyses of marginal damage estimates, reporting a median of $4- 20 per ton of co2, and a mean of $28-35 per ton across the different analyses (studies within a meta-analysis are not independent, however, often drawing from the same sources and from each other). although individual estimates are highly divergent, most are on the low side. especially striking is the difference between stern (2007) at $85 and nordhaus (2008) at $8 per ton of co2--a difference largely dependent on discount rate assumptions (see below). most estimates of near-term pigouvian taxes (i.e., marginal damages at the optimized level of emissions) are similar to marginal damage estimates at uncontrolled (i.e. existing) emissions levels, though stern (2008) pp. 344 is an exception.8
What is understood to be at the core of the current lack of adaptation practice?
weak risk governance capacity is understood to be at the core of the current lack of adaptation practice
Why is programmatic mainstreaming not used by most city authorities?
programmatic mainstreaming requires in-depth knowledge of the population's vulnerability and location-specific links between the urban fabric and disasters, which is not available to most city authorities
What are the causes of a weak science-policy interface?
on the one hand, educational and research institutions only have a limited role in actual practice, while on the other hand city authorities and professional planners have little influence on research agendas, curricula development and education
many other advances relate to the enhancement of inter-institutional cooperation, synergy creation, and the harmonization of risk reduction and adaptation to improve current risk governance structures (i.e. mainstreaming strategy v: inter-organizational mainstreaming; cf. table 7). this is based on a general consensus that the successful implementation of adaptation planning is highly dependent on the level of commitment and leadership provided by local authorities, and their interaction with other urban stakeholders. in other words, weak risk governance capacity is understood to be at the core of the current lack of adaptation practice (eea, 20112; unhabitat, 2007, 2011). in high-income nations, most emphasis is given to improved coordination and cooperation between urban authorities, and the creation of public-private partnerships. citizens are not thought to contribute to improved risk governance structures. however, in lowand middle-income nations, the comparatively greater involvement of non-governmental organizations (ngos) in risk reduction and adaptation also leads to greater importance being given to civil society organizations and citizens at risk. finally, unlike organizational and inter-organizational mainstreaming, programmatic, internal and educational mainstreaming is given little attention (table 7). programmatic mainstreaming requires in-depth knowledge of the population's vulnerability and location-specific links between the urban fabric and disasters, which is not available to most city authorities. adding some "simple" activities targeted at risk reduction and adaptation is often the easiest way out. furthermore, there seemed to be few modifications to city authorities' internal operations to ensure the protection of staff and the organization in case of disaster (e.g. the protection of the organization's infrastructure and equipment; staff security; access to disaster information; and a back-up communication plan). as for educational mainstreaming although there seems to be greater momentum towards closer cooperation between city authorities, universities and other educational bodies, in practice it is still scarce. on the one hand, educational and research institutions only have a limited role in actual practice, while on the other hand city authorities and professional planners have little influence on research agendas, curricula development and education (unisdr, 2011b), which results in a weak science-policy interface.
Does the regional gradient of surface temperatures between North Africa and the equatorial North Atlantic affect the African monsoons?
in the co2 sensitivity experiment, transient large-scale and regional-scale temperature gradients look similar (figure 6a). hence it is hard to judge whether large-scale or regional-scale land-ocean contrast affects the african monsoon more strongly
Does the feedback between the dynamics of the atmosphere and vegetation affect the rate of precipitation?
it can be seen that without the feedback between atmosphere and vegetation dynamics, amplitude and rate of increase in saharan precipitation are smaller
How were the transient temperature gradients measured on a broad and regional scale?
in the co2 sensitivity experiment
eurasian continent and the tropical atlantic ocean, but not the regional gradient of surface temperatures between northern africa and the tropical north atlantic. in the co2 sensitivity experiment, transient large-scale and regional-scale temperature gradients look similar (figure 6a). hence it is hard to judge whether large-scale or regional-scale land-ocean contrast affects the african monsoon more strongly. in figure 5b (thin lines) the precipitation changes computed in the atmosphereocean-only model, hence in a model configuration, in which the vegetation pattern is kept at a pre-industrial condition, are also included. it can be seen that without the feedback between atmosphere and vegetation dynamics, amplitude and rate of increase in saharan precipitation are smaller. the transient behavior of precipitation
What will effect the Health of urban populations?
climate change will affect the health of urban populations
What is the first step of assessing future impacts?
understanding the current impact of weather and climate variability on the health of urban populations is the fi rst step towards assessing future impacts
What do sectoral approaches to climate change ignore?
sectoral approaches to climate change impact assessments often ignore the effects on health
climate change will affect the health of urban populations. it represents a range of environmental hazards and will affect populations where the current burden of climate-sensitive disease is high - such as the urban poor in lowand middle-income countries. understanding the current impact of weather and climate variability on the health of urban populations is the fi rst step towards assessing future impacts. in this paper, we have reviewed the scientifi c evidence for the effects of temperature, rainfall and extreme events on human health, in particular the impacts of heat waves and fl oods. the methods for assessing the risks of climate change are undergoing development, and there is a need to shift the focus from global and regional to local studies. sectoral approaches to climate change impact assessments often ignore the effects on health. there is a need to better describe the risks to health from extreme weather events as well as improve the effectiveness of public health interventions. improving the resilience of cities to climate change also requires improvements in the urban infrastructure, but such improvements may not be achieved quickly enough to avoid an increased burden of disease due to global climate change. keywords cities climate change diarrhoeal disease fl oods heat stroke heat waves mortality
What are the main reasons for preparing NH3 emissions inventories?
have been to meet national-scale policy requirements and provide input to ctms
what have europe's inventories focused on?
in europe, the inventories have focused especially on livestock housing and grazing, storage and spreading of manures, and from mineral fertilizers less attention has been given to non-agricultural emissions including sewage, vehicles, pets, fish ponds, wild animals and combustion, which can contribute 15 per cent to national totals [28,29
the main reasons for constructing nh3 emissions inventories have been to meet national-scale policy requirements and provide input to ctms. among the best studied national nh3 inventories are those of the netherlands denmark the uk [23,24], europe and the us although there is frequent debate on the absolute magnitude of national emissions and their consistency with atmospheric measurements such inventories have allowed high-resolution ctms to show a close spatial correlation with annual atmospheric nh3 and nh4 th concentrations. in europe, the inventories have focused especially on livestock housing and grazing, storage and spreading of manures, and from mineral fertilizers less attention has been given to non-agricultural emissions including sewage, vehicles, pets, fish ponds, wild animals and combustion, which can contribute 15 per cent to national totals [28,29]. by comparison with the best national estimates, global nh3 emission inventories are much less certain. this reflects the wider diversity of sources and fewer underpinning data, combined with a paucity of activity statistics (e.g. animal numbers, bodyweights, diets, etc.). the contrast is illustrated between denmark, where 1 km resolution data on livestock numbers account for species sub-classes and abatement techniques and other parts of the world, where such statistics often do not even exist. recent global estimates of annual nh3 emission are summarized in table 1. dentener crutzen were the first to
What is the change in the flux of CO2 to the atmosphere while moving from non-El Nino conditions to El Non conditions?
the change in the flux of co2 to the atmosphere for this period in the model, moving from non-el nin~o conditions to el nin~o conditions, is around 0.8 gtc yr 1
Why don't the level levels of nutrient reach limiting levels?
the background level of upwelling on which the enso signal is superimposed is too high in the model and levels of nutrient do not generally reach limiting levels
Does this study include iron limitations?
more complex biological limitations such as iron limitation are not included
nin~o-3 index is shown in fig. 10a. the change in the flux of co2 to the atmosphere for this period in the model, moving from non-el nin~o conditions to el nin~o conditions, is around 0.8 gtc yr 1(see fig. 10b), comparable to the 0.7 gtc yr 1change calculated by chavez et al. (1999). however the biology in the model shows little reaction. the background level of upwelling on which the enso signal is superimposed is too high in the model and levels of nutrient do not generally reach limiting levels. also more complex biological limitations such as iron limitation are not included. the mechanisms behind the reaction of the modeled ocean to enso are investigated in section 5. 2) local atmospheric co2 concentrations
Where did the journey start?
that journey started in the far distant past, in the ancient villages and cities of iraq, the cradle of civilization where, through seven years of excavation, we touched the lives of those people who ate from the pots, played with the toys, drove the chariots and built the buildings that we uncovered, not decades or centuries, but millennia ago, on the once fertile plains, once again scarred by war
Can you describe the path to this book?
the path to this book passed through nomad tents on tribal roads, and across vast deserts where families, using little more energy than twigs to cook on, lived in comfort, and in some cases luxury, in the extreme climates of what we would see only as barren lands
What was the main concern of the author?
my concern was growing at the unfairness of the reality - that people in the developing countries are already dying in large numbers because of climate change, whilst it is those in the west who are generating the carbon dioxide emissions that are warming the world
this is a book i have been thinking about writing for over 25 years. every study i have worked on, in those intervening years, has been a stepping-stone towards this publication on the future of architecture. that journey started in the far distant past, in the ancient villages and cities of iraq, the cradle of civilization where, through seven years of excavation, we touched the lives of those people who ate from the pots, played with the toys, drove the chariots and built the buildings that we uncovered, not decades or centuries, but millennia ago, on the once fertile plains, once again scarred by war. the path to this book passed through nomad tents on tribal roads, and across vast deserts where families, using little more energy than twigs to cook on, lived in comfort, and in some cases luxury, in the extreme climates of what we would see only as barren lands. climate in those regions, on the fringes of agriculture, has always been about survival, but the study that first alerted me to the scale of the potential impacts of climate change on our lives in the more temperate lands was one, not on buildings in hot deserts, but on the ice-houses of britain. writing on their history in the 1980s, it became obvious that this ancient technology, forgotten behind the miracle of refrigeration, had become climatically obsolete as the world warmed, and that even very small changes in global temperatures, fractions of a degree, could be responsible for the demise of a great international industry, if those changes cross a critical thermal threshold, such as the temperature at which ice melts. figure 1 shows how central to our very survival the simple substance ice is, and what a key role it is playing in the re-ordering of global climates, oceans and landscapes. by the late 1980s the growing global problems of ozone depletion and climate change were beginning to be talked of more often. my concern was growing at the unfairness of the reality - that people in the developing countries are already dying in large numbers because of climate change, whilst it is those in the west who are generating the carbon dioxide emissions that are warming the world. the desire to show that it need not be like this led to the building of the first photovoltaic home in oxford, in which my family still comfortably resides. this simple building emits only a few hundred kilograms of co 2 a year instead of five or six thousand and is more comfortable than a highly polluting one. we cut down our greenhouse gas emissions to less than 10% of typical emissions with no loss of quality of life. so why isn't everyone doing it? why are architects building 'glass houses' and windowless plywood 'blobs' instead of the types of solid, resilient, buildings that offer us some hope for survival in the coming decades? more free ebooks http://fast-file.blogspot.com it beats me! but what i do know is that the road that many of us have followed from the energy crisis of the 1970s through the growing issues of climate change, fossil fuel depletion and sustainability has led us towards a present, and a future, that is very different from anything that has been before. one can see why many people want to avoid thinking about it - a future where the issue is increasingly not about comfortable concepts like 'sustainability', but about the harsher realities of designing for 'survival'. if only the global community had acted more firmly in the 1970s when they saw the challenges ahead perhaps we would not now be facing the predicaments around us! the unavoidable truth is that it has been left to our generation alone, of all those that have come before, to face the awesome challenge of redesigning the world to accommodate the new forces of the late fossil fuel age, of dark cities, a world of slowing economic growth, of climate change and an exploding global population. it is the scale of the catastrophic changing of circumstances around us that makes it difficult to grasp at any heart to the problem. we are still only equipped with the old ways of thinking, that showed us an illusion of a clear path ahead. but many of us who, for years, have been watching, and working so diligently to get a handle on controlling the impacts of late-twentieth-century development have been surprised by how wrong we got it. we have only been scratching the surface of the problem. in what we once saw as the manageable game of sustainable development, our eyes have been so far off the ball that what follows in this book may be unbelievable, or unpalatable, to many readers. very few people - remarkable among them being my co-authors david crichton and fergus nicol and the pioneering thinker edward mazria 1 - have been able to see beyond the 'business as usual' carrot that draws us, blinkered, on our way. few have questioned the horizons, or understood that what we once saw as a single, efficient, road forward to a clean, bright, future has now widened out into a quagmire of complex interrelated forces that urgently require us to think outside the envelope of our own buildings, and above all, to open windows, to embrace a new age of architecture, planning and politics of development. we can make a difference, we can leave a world fit for our children and grandchildren, but the task is urgent and the task is huge. can it be that for decades we have been looking for the warnings in all the wrong places? because the one thing that is increasingly clear is that the writing is now on the landscape, and the wall. sue roaf
How was the interaction estimated to provide an effect size assessment comparable with other research investigating moderator variables?
to provide an effect size assessment comparable with other research investigating moderator variables, we estimated the interaction by using ordinary least squares (ols) regression (with group-level climate scores assigned down to individuals within the group
How did the model account for using a slightly different estimation method (OLS vs. GLS)?
the overall r2value provides an unbiased assessment of the percentage of variance the interaction accounts for using a slightly different estimation method (ols vs. gls
What did Evans (1985) conclude about the difficulty of detecting moderator effects?
evans (1985), for example, concluded that moderator effects are so difficult to detect that even those explaining as little as 1% of the variance should be considered important
to provide an effect size assessment comparable with other research investigating moderator variables, we estimated the interaction by using ordinary least squares (ols) regression (with group-level climate scores assigned down to individuals within the group). although this model likely violates the assumed independence of error terms (consequently biasing the parameter tests), the overall r2value provides an unbiased assessment of the percentage of variance the interaction accounts for using a slightly different estimation method (ols vs. gls). the results of this ols moderated regression demonstrated that the interaction term accounted for an addition 8% of the variance (i.e., r2change  .08). according to mcclelland and judd (1993), an r2change of this magnitude should be considered rather large. specifically, mcclelland and judd stated that "even when reliable moderator effects are found, the reduction in model error due to adding the product term is often disconcertingly low. evans (1985), for example, concluded that moderator effects are so difficult to detect that even those explaining as little as 1% of the variance should be considered important. champoux and peters (1987) and chaplin (1991) reviewed much of the social science literature and reported that field study interactions typically account for about 1-3% of the variance" (p. 277).
Why are norms about what happens in meetings important?
norms about what happens in meetings are important because they determine who speaks when, how information is presented, and how people should disagree
What may seem rude in making the information being conveyed inaccessible to less-educated participants?
there are also norms concerning language use: for instance, using technical language may seem rude when it makes the information being conveyed inaccessible to less-educated participants, essentially limiting their involvement in the discussion and, ultimately, the decision(s
In a meeting, what are some people more comfortable presenting which should not be devalued?
some people are more comfortable presenting from their experience, and this information should not be devalued because it is not "factual
norms about what happens in meetings are important because they determine who speaks when, how information is presented, and how people should disagree. some people are more comfortable presenting from their experience, and this information should not be devalued because it is not "factual." there are also norms concerning language use: for instance, using technical language may seem rude when it makes the information being conveyed inaccessible to less-educated participants, essentially limiting their involvement in the discussion and, ultimately, the decision(s). there are similar norms concerning the meeting's end goal--in some cultural contexts, reaching group consensus may have a higher value than representing differences and allowing everyone to express their opinion.62
Which study report suggests that natural hazards as one of the major drivers of poverty?
world development report highlights the lack of security to all kinds of risks, including natural hazards and (other) economic shocks, as one of the major drivers of poverty (world bank 2001b
What solution does World Bank 2001b offer ?
it also stresses the need for greater attention to the prevention of impacts rather than the traditional reliance on response (post-disaster reconstruction
Which report suggested vulnerability to natural hazards as a major environmental concern?
the new world bank environment strategy (world bank 2001a), and a background paper prepared under the guidance of the global climate change team (sharma et al. 2001) highlighted vulnerability to natural hazards as a major environmental concern
on a more general level, attention to the vulnerability to climate variability and weather extremes has received attention in several studies and bank reports. for instance, the 2000/2001 world development report highlights the lack of security to all kinds of risks, including natural hazards and (other) economic shocks, as one of the major drivers of poverty (world bank 2001b). it also stresses the need for greater attention to the prevention of impacts rather than the traditional reliance on response (post-disaster reconstruction). similarly, the new world bank environment strategy (world bank 2001a), and a background paper prepared under the guidance of the global climate change team (sharma et al. 2001) highlighted vulnerability to natural hazards as a major environmental concern.
What was a significant difference observed?
a significant difference was observed in respondents' support of the climate policy based on their perceptions of the likelihood of global policy co-operation
What would increase substantially if a broader global consensus on GHG reduction effort could be assured?
this implies that if a broader global consensus on ghg reduction effort could be assured, willingness to pay for climate change policy intervention would increase substantially
What does the increased support for a national mitigation measure when the rest of the world co-operates, perhaps, arise from?
the increased support for a national mitigation measure when the rest of the world co-operates, perhaps, arises from the philosophy of all countries doing their fair share
a significant difference was observed in respondents' support of the climate policy based on their perceptions of the likelihood of global policy co-operation. respondents, who believed that global co-operation was more likely, were significantly more supportive of the cprs. further, mean wtp was adjusted by taking into account the preferences of those respondents who refused to pay solely because of the absence of a multilateral agreement on climate change mitigation. the difference between mean wtp with and without guaranteed global co-operation was statistically significant at the one percent level. this implies that if a broader global consensus on ghg reduction effort could be assured, willingness to pay for climate change policy intervention would increase substantially. this is not entirely because respondents believe a global co-operation is the key to climate change mitigation. the increased support for a national mitigation measure when the rest of the world co-operates, perhaps, arises from the philosophy of all countries doing their fair share.
What are the main factors found to exacerbate heat stress in current and future workplace?
the main factors found to exacerbate heat stress in the current and future workplace are the urban 'heat island effect', physical work, individual differences, and the developing country context where technological fixes and certain control measures are often not applicable
What measures need to be considered to address occupational health problems?
both mitigation and adaptation measures should be considered, sometimes in combination and including both preventative and control solutions, to achieve multiple benefits
In which particular continent studies need to be held on occupational heat stress?
 occupational heat stress in different countries and ways of dealing with it; studies are especially needed in africa. 
on the basis of the reviewed articles, it can be summarized that heat stress has been researched extensively in the past. however, in the contemporary context of climate change, information is lacking on the extent of future heat stress and its consequences, especially in an occupational setting. it was also found that heat stress is often an overlooked problem and that lessons seem to have to be relearnt. the main factors found to exacerbate heat stress in the current and future workplace are the urban 'heat island effect', physical work, individual differences, and the developing country context where technological fixes and certain control measures are often not applicable. there is also a lack of information on the effects on vulnerable groups such as elderly people and pregnant women. occupational health and safety is one of the basic rights that workers are being denied in many developing countries. in addition to this, as work productivity reduces with increasing temperatures, world economic productivity will be condensed, affecting developing countries disproportionately as most of these already are located in warm climates. to address these current and future occupational health problems, sustainable solutions must be interdisciplinary and take into account the social, economic, environmental and technical aspects of the problem. both mitigation and adaptation measures should be considered, sometimes in combination and including both preventative and control solutions, to achieve multiple benefits. capac ity building such as education and awareness, and involvement on all levels of society is needed to address this. from the review it became apparent that research is needed in these areas: * occupational heat stress in different countries and ways of dealing with it; studies are especially needed in africa. * heat island effects on workplaces in urban areas. * current adaptation practices in warm countries. * heat stress control options and possible sustainable solutions (low cost). * analysis of future productivity losses due to heat stress and economic analysis. *****running title*****
who plays an important role in the stocks and f ows of the global carbon cycle?
land carbon plays an important role in the stocks and f ows of the global carbon cycle
What would happen if complete global deforestation over the same time occur?
complete global deforestation over the same time frame would increase atmospheric concentrations by about 130-290 ppm13. in comparison, the projected range of atmco2 in 2100, under a range of fossil fuel emissions scenarios developed for the ipcc, is 170-600 ppm above 2000 levels14
land carbon plays an important role in the stocks and f ows of the global carbon cycle, but the magnitude is limited and it has particular characteristics which contrast with the di f erent qualities of the other main categories of carbon stocks (fossil fuel, atmosphere and ocean). t e fossil fuel carbon stock was built up very slowly over millions of years and does not de-gas into the atmosphere at any signi f cant rate. emissions from this stock in the contemporary era constitute a one-way f ow, which is a direct result of human activity. carbon is stored in the other three major categories of stocks in di f erent forms (on land as biomass and soil organic carbon, in the atmosphere as co2 gas and in the ocean primarily as dissolved inorganic carbon) and both the land and ocean carbon stocks naturally exchange with the atmospheric stock. t e potential size of the land carbon stock is determined chie f y by climate, and modi f ed locally by substrate and topography, and the e f ects these have on plant growth12. t e capacity of the land to remove atmospheric carbon and store it in vegetation and soil is limited to the amount previously depleted by land use. it has been estimated that if all the carbon so far released by land-use changes (mainly deforestation) could be restored through reforestation this would reduce atmco2 at the end of the century by 40-70 ppm. conversely, complete global deforestation over the same time frame would increase atmospheric concentrations by about 130-290 ppm13. in comparison, the projected range of atmco2 in 2100, under a range of fossil fuel emissions scenarios developed for the ipcc, is 170-600 ppm above 2000 levels14. t ese estimates highlight the very modest scope for reforestation to reduce atmco2 compared with both the magnitude of fossil fuel co2 emissions and emissions from derorestation and degradation. moreover, complete reforestation of previously cleared land is an implausible scenario due to competing land uses -- especially from food production
What happened to the metro system do?
the metro system collapsed
Were the operations cancelled?
operations were cancelled
What incensed the Catalan government?
the catalan government was so incensed by the power failure, which lasted for 56 hours and 42 minutes, that a year later, in july 2008, they proposed a ps 17 million fine for the two largest spanish utilities who were held responsible for the event, some ps 8.5 million each
the metro system collapsed. <s121>* operations were cancelled. <s121>* there was traffic gridlock. <s121>* cash machines failed. <s121>* looting was reported. <s121>* ' more light - less police ' saucepan lid protest took place in the city centre. <s121>* a major substation fire broke out. <s121>* there was a mobile phone blackout. the backlash was enormous, not least because the city that is medium rise in its form with good passive building has recently allowed a rash of new highly glazed office and residential towers to sprout up around its edges, towers that fail catastrophically in the heat in such blackouts. the catalan government was so incensed by the power failure, which lasted for 56 hours and 42 minutes, that a year later, in july 2008, they proposed a ps 17 million fine for the two largest spanish utilities who were held responsible for the event, some ps 8.5 million each. the utilities companies called this excessive and appealed. one of the consequences of grid failures in an all-electric world grown dependent on electric cooling is that buildings and vehicles begin to overheat. buildings can be evacuated but as early as the 1960s fergus nicol had conducted a study for british rail on how long it takes for a train
The likelihood of finding a marker linked to an adaptively important gene in F. sylvatica in our study is?
therefore relatively low if ld is comparably low in both taxa
genomes of F. sylvatica are small or large?
small
given the large population from which our samples are drawn c 2830 ha near-continuous forest) and that fagus sylvatica is a highly outcrossing, wind-pollinated species, average levels of linkage disequilibrium (ld) across the genome of this species are expected to be low. in populus tremula (european aspen), which is also outcrossing and wind pollinated, ingvarsson (2005) found that average levels of ld are generally low, declining to negligible levels in less than 500 bp in five nuclear genes studied at the species level. at the population level, ld was generally two to five times higher in the same genes, extending beyond 1-2 kb. linkage disequilibrium may be substantially higher around loci that have experienced recent directional selection (ingvarsson 2005). the genomes of f. sylvatica (544 mb, gallois et al 1999) and populus (550 mb, taylor 2002) are small relative to other trees. however, the 254 loci used in our study give an average of only one marker per 2.14 mb of the genome of f. sylvatica (although we have no information on the distribution or potential aggregation of loci across the genome). the likelihood of finding a marker linked to an adaptively important gene in f. sylvatica in our study is therefore relatively low if ld is comparably low in both taxa.
Who has a potentially powerful voice in the fight against childhood obesity?
parents are a potentially powerful voice in the fight against childhood obesity
Expand  MADD.
mothers against drunk driving (madd
What is the goal of Gatekeepers?
we propose a coalition called gatekeepers that would work to change environments inside and outside the home
parents are a potentially powerful voice in the fight against childhood obesity. their passion for protecting their children and their ability to create change locally and even nationally can be harnessed, we believe, to help with preventing childhood obesity. parents often form groups to raise money to support research on diseases that have afflicted their children, but sometimes have organized groups to change public policy. mothers against drunk driving (madd) is a good example. the group fundraises, educates, and lobbies for policy change and is a visible presence in the alcohol abuse domain. to date, there have been many - although scattered - prevention efforts by parents, health professionals, and school administrators to improve the food environment in schools. organizing these efforts into a national movement could create a new, important, and influential presence. we propose a coalition called gatekeepers that would work to change environments inside and outside the home. the food industry and its allies often state that parents must be the gatekeepers, implying that parents are directly responsible for their children's obesity and that the environment is not. there is benefit to considering parents as gatekeepers, but with this label must also come the power and tools to make change. a gatekeepers coalition could generate power in numbers and potentially form an important voting block. it could work for legislative change at local, state, and national levels, interact in sophisticated ways with the press, and be funded sufficiently through grants and public support to hire communications and lobbying experts. gatekeepers could also work with parents to change home environments. this will require message clarity, specific education campaigns for interacting with children around food, and tools for creating generally healthier homes. parents can be encouraged to manage their home environments as well as prevail over negative external influences that undercut their efforts. one very important message to send clearly that now undermines progress is that of balance and moderation. this message is pervasive because of collusion, whether intended or not, between the food industry
What are the three 10-year equilibrium global climate simulations that were run?
a) baseline c. 2000 emissions, (b) a1b 2030 emissions, and (c) b1 2030 emissions
Why were longer simulations (e.g., 20 years) not run?
longer simulations (e.g., 20 years) were not run due to limited computer resources and time
What does the comparisons indicate?
the comparisons indicate extremely good agreement considering the coarseness of the model resolution
three 10-year equilibrium global climate simulations (4  5 degree resolution) were run: (a) baseline c. 2000 emissions, (b) a1b 2030 emissions, and (c) b1 2030 emissions. longer simulations (e.g., 20 years) were not run due to limited computer resources and time. thus the results here are relatively transient and provide information only as to the short-term effects of the different emission scenarios. figure 3a compares baseline global fields precipitation with data. figures 3b-3d compare surface ozone, vertical ozone profiles, and vertical temperature/dew point profiles, respectively with paired-in-space (e.g., model values in the exact location of the measurement) monthly data. the comparisons indicate extremely good agreement considering the coarseness of the model resolution. the model has also been compared previously with pairedintimeandspace aircraft spiral and surface data for numerous parameters by jacobson [2001b] and other studies.
What do discount rates convert the cost of climate change into?
most commentary on the review has focused on the discount rates used to convert the cost of climate change in the future into a present valu
What are the limitations of discount rates?
discount rates are essentially marginal concepts corresponding to changes around a prespecified path of economic growth
On what assumptions does the discount rate depend on?
but as we explain below, the discount rate depends on what we assume about economic growth
most commentary on the review has focused on the discount rates used to convert the cost of climate change in the future into a present value (e.g. mendelsohn [citation] and weyant [citation] in this issue, as well as dasgupta, 2006, nordhaus, 2006, and weitzman, 2007). it is however a mistake to attempt to jump straight to discount rates in this type of intertemporal policy analysis where potential changes are very large. discount rates are essentially marginal concepts corresponding to changes around a prespecified path of economic growth. in the case of climate change, we must take account of the risk of economic effects that are non-marginal to the future path of global growth and development. that is, the risks of climate change mean that we cannot assume economic growth will continue on its present trajectory, if emissions continue to follow bau. but as we explain below, the discount rate depends on what we assume about economic growth.
What was the cross-sectional estimates used for?
next, we use these cross-sectional estimates to simulate the intertemporal impacts of various future climate scenarios on energy expenditures
what were they assuming?
we are assuming that the responses of customers from place to place will be similar to the long run responses of customers over time. note that we are not modeling the consequences of changes in year to year weather but rather gradual decadal changes in climate
what was anticipating?
we are thus anticipating that customers will have time over these multiple decades to adjust their capital stock and behavior to the new climates they face
next, we use these cross-sectional estimates to simulate the intertemporal impacts of various future climate scenarios on energy expenditures. we are assuming that the responses of customers from place to place will be similar to the long run responses of customers over time. note that we are not modeling the consequences of changes in year to year weather but rather gradual decadal changes in climate. we are thus anticipating that customers will have time over these multiple decades to adjust their capital stock and behavior to the new climates they face. 21 21 the early climate impact literature focused on how climate might affect the current economy as shown in the marginal exercise above. the energy sector is likely to be quite different by the time that forecasted climate scenarios come to pass. for example, the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) estimates that temperatures will warm between 1.4 @ c and 5.8 @ c by 2100 we propose a possible base case scenario for 2100. we then explore how a 2.5 @ c and a 5.0 @ c warming scenario (with a 15% increase in precipitation) would impact this future economy. of course, no one knows exactly what will happen in the future not only to climate but to many other key variables as well. in addition to our base case scenario, we therefore explore alternative baseline assumptions in order to give a sense of the importance of alternative assumptions regarding energy prices (including endogeneity), population growth, and economic growth. the population in the united states is projected to grow annually by approximately 0.3% based on historical averages, we assume income per capita will grow at 2% per year. we assume that these changes are proportional across the country. we assume that the age distribution of the building stock will not change (new buildings will replace old ones) and that the building technology (but for the modeled fuel choice) will not change. we assume commercial energy demand will grow proportionally with residential demand.20
Why does the outlined method have a problem with providing an accurate estimation of r for short subsamples of size m?
it is well-known that the conventional estimators, such as the ols or maximum likelihood techniques, yield biased estimates for r
What are two sources of bias for the estimation of r?
first, if the true mean of the series m is known, the serial correlations, will, in general, be biased, except when r 0 johnston 1984]. in practice, the mean has to be estimated from the sample, and this introduces a much larger bias, which is present even if r 0
Who gave the formula for the expected value of the OLS estimator of r for a more complex situation with the unknown mean?
marriott and pope [1954] and kendall [1954
the major problem in the outlined method is an accurate estimation of r for short subsamples of size m it is well-known that the conventional estimators, such as the ols or maximum likelihood techniques, yield biased estimates for r shaman and stine 1988]. there are two sources of the bias. first, if the true mean of the series m is known, the serial correlations, will, in general, be biased, except when r 0 johnston 1984]. in practice, the mean has to be estimated from the sample, and this introduces a much larger bias, which is present even if r 0 marriott and pope 1954]. much research has been devoted to estimating the bias, although most efforts have considered the first order term of the bias, o m 1), and the case when the mean is known. among those who considered a more complex situation with the unknown mean were marriott and pope [1954] and kendall [1954], who gave the formula for the expected value of the ols estimator of r
What has Ajzen hypothesized?
that attitudes often fail to exhibit strong correlations with behaviour because of the large number of factors that potentially prevent the attitude from being converted to behaviour
What concept did Ajzen introduce?
intention as a link between attitude and behaviour to strengthen the relationship
What does the safety climate research suggest?
ways in which the tpb model can itself be refined
[insert figure 2 about here] ajzen hypothesised that attitudes often fail to exhibit strong correlations with ajzen hypothesised that attitudes often fail to exhibit strong correlations with behaviour because of the large number of factors that potentially prevent the attitude from being converted to behaviour. consequently, ajzen introduced the concept of intention as a link between attitude and behaviour to strengthen the relationship. in this way, attitudes can be used to predict an individual's intention to perform a behaviour, which in turn can be used to predict the occurrence of the actual behaviour. the incorporation of intention as a mediating variable has served to strengthen the relationship between attitudes and behaviour in the application of the tpb across a variety of settings (e.g., conner, warren, close, sparks, 1999; furnham lovett, 2001). the concept of subjective norms is more complex. subjective norms refer to the beliefs and behaviours of people who are likely to influence the view of the individual. in a work situation, this is likely to include both managers and those coworkers who are closely associated with the individual. for example, if an employee does not believe that management or colleagues are concerned with safety, then they are less likely to consider safety as important. the third predictor of intention and also a direct predictor of behaviour is the component of perceived behavioural control. according to ajzen, perceived behavioural control strengthens the relationship between intentions and behaviour. ajzen argued that people often intend to perform certain behaviours, yet fail because of factors which fall outside their control. to a large extent, the constructs included in the tpb mirror the individual, to a large extent, the constructs included in the tpb mirror the individual, group, and organisational level variables measured in safety climate studies. individual attitude toward safety is often used as a safety climate variable (e.g., mearns et al., 2001). safety climate studies have also looked at the influence of subjective norms. individuals in organisations tend to regard themselves as members of workgroups. the norms developed by these groups influence the behaviour of employees who feel they are a part of any such group. the inclusion of group level factors in safety climate studies is supported by research that has looked at the role group norms play in safety behaviours (e.g., hofmann and stetzer, 1996; zohar, 2000). finally, perceived behavioural control is represented throughout the safety climate literature by way of workplace pressures that prevent employees from safety climate and the theory of planned behaviour 5 following procedures. perceived behavioural control suggests there are times where, despite best intentions to act in a certain manner, individuals feel incapable of fulfilling a planned activity. in the same way, employees may feel that they are not able to complete work tasks according to procedures and rules because of external factors that are beyond their direct control. examples of these external influences include lack of equipment, lack of personnel, lack of time, and production pressures. in safety literature these factors are often combined under the construct of workplace pressures, elements of work that are beyond the control of individual workers, yet likely to impact on their perceived ability to complete tasks in accordance with procedures. consequently, it is suggested that workplace pressures will be associated with employee intentions to violate and actual violations of procedures. thus, the tpb maps quite nicely onto models generated by some studies of thus, the tpb maps quite nicely onto models generated by some studies of safety climate (fogarty neal, 2002). the safety climate research, in turn, suggests ways in which the tpb model can itself be refined. as shown in figure 2, the relations among own attitude, subjective norms, and perceived behavioural control remain unanalysed. this study will extend the tpb by suggesting management attitude to safety is responsible for the spurious link between these unanalysed variables the importance of management attitudes to safety is well-documented, indeed, it extends back to zohar's (1980) initial study of safety climate. zohar found that an employee's perception of his or her manager's attitudes toward safety was the most important predictor of safety climate. since then, studies applying safety climate and culture to mining accidents, the aviation industry, and construction workers have all highlighted the important role played by management in ensuring the safety of organisations. we suggest here that management attitudes will exert an indirect influence on violation behaviour via own attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived control. we also suggest that subjective norms will have a direct effect on own attitudes. the resulting model is shown in figure 3.
The floods exposes every year a rate of how many residents?
a majority of 96 percent of the interviewed floodplain residents are exposed every year during the rainy season to flooding, and a quarter of the population mentions flooding as the main problem faced by the region, followed by other important problems such as bad roads (23%), unemployment (20%) and lack of electricity (17
How is this possible?
in more than one third of the cases the water comes waist high during the rain season (approximately 1.5 feet) and in another one third of the cases even shoulder high (approximately 3 feet
So for that, the population suffers of what?
almost half of the population (46%) indicates that they suffer each year from diarrhea during the rain season. ninety-nine percent seeks medical treatment for this
a majority of 96 percent of the interviewed floodplain residents are exposed every year during the rainy season to flooding, and a quarter of the population mentions flooding as the main problem faced by the region, followed by other important problems such as bad roads (23%), unemployment (20%) and lack of electricity (17%). the extent of flood exposure during the rain season is presented in figure 3. in more than one third of the cases the water comes waist high during the rain season (approximately 1.5 feet) and in another one third of the cases even shoulder high (approximately 3 feet). almost half of the population (46%) indicates that they suffer each year from diarrhea during the rain season. ninety-nine percent seeks medical treatment for this.
What is the acronym of IAMs?
integrated assessment models
What is the argument of this paragraph?
i have argued that integrated assessment models (iams) have flaws that make them close to useless as tools for policy analysis
What are JEL Classification Numbers?
q54; d81, q51
in recent articles, i have argued that integrated assessment models (iams) have flaws that make them close to useless as tools for policy analysis. iam-based analyses of climate policy create a perception of knowledge and precision that is illusory, and can fool policymakers into thinking that the forecasts the models generate have some kind of scientific legitimacy. but some have claimed that we need some kind of model, and that iams can be structured and used in ways that correct for their shortcomings. for example, it has been argued that although we know little or nothing about key relationships in the model, we can get around this problem by attaching probability distributions to various parameters and then simulating the model using monte carlo methods. i argue that this would buy us nothing, and that a simpler and more transparent approach to the design of climate change policy is preferable. i briefly outline what that approach would look like. jel classification numbers q54; d81, q51. keywords environmental policy, ghg abatement, uncertainty, outcome distributions, fat-tailed distributions, global warming, climate change, economic impact, catastrophic outcomes.
Explain about alternative research study?
the absence of a direct effect, however, does not necessarily imply the absence of any effect. an alternative, useful research strategy is to look for conditional effects that vary with the level of economic performance and the political system in place
Whether the growth rates in rainfall is useful?
furthermore, the use of growth rates in rainfall might not be a suitable measure because rainfall growth is mean reverting (see ciccone, 2011; buhaug, 2010). it may thus fail to capture the true economic impact of rainfall because it is not conditioned on its 'normal' level
Describe  politically moderated relationship ?
in this article we propose a politically moderated relationship between climate change and conflict that involves conditional effects (through economic performance and political institutions). moreover, we evaluate this relationship using a measure of climatic conditions that is both more compelling theoretically and more immune to problems of endogeneity
the absence of a direct effect, however, does not necessarily imply the absence of any effect. an alternative, useful research strategy is to look for conditional effects that vary with the level of economic performance and the political system in place. furthermore, the use of growth rates in rainfall might not be a suitable measure because rainfall growth is mean reverting (see ciccone, 2011; buhaug, 2010). it may thus fail to capture the true economic impact of rainfall because it is not conditioned on its 'normal' level. in this article we propose a politically moderated relationship between climate change and conflict that involves conditional effects (through economic performance and political institutions). moreover, we evaluate this relationship using a measure of climatic conditions that is both more compelling theoretically and more immune to problems of endogeneity.
what are the options of implementing important mitigation?
implementing important mitigation options such as afforestation, hydropower and bio-fuels may have positive and negative impacts on freshwater resources, depending on sitespecific situations
what is irrigation and mitigation potential?
expansion of irrigated areas and dam-based hydro-electric power generation can lead to reduced effectiveness of associated mitigation potential. in the case of irrigation, co2 emissions due to energy consumption for pumping water and to methane emissions in rice fields may partly offset any mitigation effects
what is  freshwater reservoirs?
freshwater reservoirs for hydropower generation may produce some greenhouse gas emissions, so that an overall case-specific evaluation of the ultimate greenhouse gas budget is needed
implementing important mitigation options such as afforestation, hydropower and bio-fuels may have positive and negative impacts on freshwater resources, depending on sitespecific situations. therefore, site-specific joint evaluation and optimisation of (the effectiveness of) mitigation measures and water-related impacts are needed. expansion of irrigated areas and dam-based hydro-electric power generation can lead to reduced effectiveness of associated mitigation potential. in the case of irrigation, co2 emissions due to energy consumption for pumping water and to methane emissions in rice fields may partly offset any mitigation effects. freshwater reservoirs for hydropower generation may produce some greenhouse gas emissions, so that an overall case-specific evaluation of the ultimate greenhouse gas budget is needed. [wgiii 4.3.3.1, 8.4.1.1]
who was this work inspired by?
this work was inspired by our late colleague gerard bond
which three reviewers were thanked as reviewers of this manuscript?
the authors thank athanasios koutavas and two anonymous reviewers for insightful comments that greatly improved the quality of this manuscript
which grants were acknowledged?
we acknowledge the following grants: noaa na030ar4320179 p07, noaa na030ar4320179 20a, nsf atm 0347009, and nsf atm 0501878
acknowledgments. this work was inspired by our late colleague gerard bond, who greatly encouraged the earlier stages of it but passed away before he could see the completion. he influenced us more than he ever knew. we acknowledge the following grants: noaa na030ar4320179 p07, noaa na030ar4320179 20a, nsf atm 0347009, and nsf atm 0501878. j.e.g. was partially supported by the boris bakhmeteff fellowship in fluid mechanics. j.e.g. would like to thank gustavo correa, naomi naik, and lawrence rosen for technical assistance; raimund muscheler for providing14c data; and andrew wittenberg, yochanan kushnir, and steve zebiak for many illuminating discussions. the authors thank athanasios koutavas and two anonymous reviewers for insightful comments that greatly improved the quality of this manuscript.
In a baroclinic fluid atmosphere, what does density depend on?
the atmosphere is a baroclinic fluid, meaning that the density depends on both temperature and pressure
What is "baroclinic instability" in a baroclinic fluid atmosphere?
this means that temperature can vary along a surface of constant pressure, and instability which can only exist because of these horizontal gradients of temperature is called baroclinic instability
What is a barotropic flow?
a barotropic flow is one in which density is a function of pressure alone, so that temperature does not vary along a pressure surface and the (balanced part of the) horizontal wind does not vary with height
the atmosphere is a baroclinic fluid, meaning that the density depends on both temperature and pressure. this means that temperature can vary along a surface of constant pressure, and instability which can only exist because of these horizontal gradients of temperature is called baroclinic instability. in flows of the scale of weather systems or larger the wind field is, to a good approximation, in 'thermal wind balance', so that the horizontal temperature gradients are related to vertical gradients in the horizontal wind. in contrast, a barotropic flow is one in which density is a function of pressure alone, so that temperature does not vary along a pressure surface and the (balanced part of the) horizontal wind does not vary with height.
what is the Rift Valley fever?
rift valley fever is an acute, mosquito-borne viral disease, mainly affecting ruminants and humans
what does  Rift Valley fever cause in animals ?
it causes abortions in pregnant animals and high mortality in young animals, characterised by massive hepatic necrosis and pantropic haemorrhage
what does  RVF cause in human ?
in humans, rvf causes a severe influenza-like disease, occasionally with more serious effects, such as haemorrhagic complications, hepatitis, encephalitis, blindness and sometimes death
rift valley fever is an acute, mosquito-borne viral disease, mainly affecting ruminants and humans. it causes abortions in pregnant animals and high mortality in young animals, characterised by massive hepatic necrosis and pantropic haemorrhage. in humans, rvf causes a severe influenza-like disease, occasionally with more serious effects, such as haemorrhagic complications, hepatitis, encephalitis, blindness and sometimes death. the virus is a member of the family bunyaviridae, in the genus phlebovirus it is a ribonucleic acid virus, which is related to some other members of the group by haemagglutination or indirect fluorescent antibody tests at low titres and from which it may be readily distinguished by virus-serum neutralisation tests. the virus is transmitted by mosquitoes of at least six genera with over 30 different species shown to be competent vectors. it is transmitted transovarially by some of the aedes neomelaniconium species of mosquitoes (24). in particular, it can be transferred transovarially from females to eggs in some mosquito species of the aedes genus. these insects are floodwater-breeding species. they emerge in huge numbers in flooded depressions and other habitats where oviposition has occurred. between flooding periods, the eggs can survive desiccation for many years, and cause
What may lead to a forest dieback at the southern boundaries of presently forested regions in the Northern Hemisphere?
in the northern hemisphere, a warming may lead to a forest dieback at the southern boundaries of presently forested regions
What is also likely to continue?
including establishment of plantations of non-native "exotic" species, is also likely to continue
What is probably at risk as a result of climate change?
an additional 10 pgc (20 years) and 100 pgc (100 years) is probably at risk as a result of climate change
in the northern hemisphere, a warming may lead to a forest dieback at the southern boundaries of presently forested regions, although increase in spring or fall temperature may extend the growing season length of temperate and boreal ecosystems. invasive species could spread in these regions. direct human action on species composition, however, including establishment of plantations of non-native "exotic" species, is also likely to continue. the net effect on carbon reservoirs is difficult to estimate but is more likely to be a source than a sink, and the total forest area is more likely to shrink than to expand. in the tropics, warming and increased aridity may lead to a size reduction of the tropical forests (cox et al. 2000). given that tropical forests contain the largest carbon pool of terrestrial biota and also the largest net primary production (see table 2.2 in sabine et al., chapter 2), this reduction will likely lead to a release of carbon to the atmosphere. in summary, we estimate that on the order of 40 pgc carbon stored in the living biomass might be at risk over the next 20 years, and up to 100 pgc over the course of the 21st century. this risk arises mostly from deforestation and other anthropogenic land use changes, an additional 10 pgc (20 years) and 100 pgc (100 years) is probably at risk as a result of climate change--that is, the inability of communities to adapt to a changed climate.
Define intensification of the cross-equatorial winds?
an intensification of the cross-equatorial winds leads to a northward shift of the wind convergence, leading to reduced ekman pumping in the zone of high sst and reduced mixing and evaporation, thereby providing a positive air-sea feedback for the northeastern tropical pacific warming
Define the strength of the annual cycle?
the strength of the annual cycle is strongly correlated with the meridional gradient of temperatures and the meridional position of the itcz, thereby supporting the notion that the meridional gradient of sst, the position of the itcz, and the strength of the cross-equatorial trade winds control the strength of the equatorial annual cycle (xie 1994
Define strength of the orbital forcing?
transitions from a more symmetric to a more asymmetric state are driven by the strength of the orbital forcing and ultimately by the strength of the off-equatorial net shortwave forcing and the meridional sst gradient.1
.p.) leads to an enhancement of the cross-equatorial winds (fig. 3). an intensification of the cross-equatorial winds leads to a northward shift of the wind convergence, leading to reduced ekman pumping in the zone of high sst and reduced mixing and evaporation, thereby providing a positive air-sea feedback for the northeastern tropical pacific warming. figures 3 and 4 reveal that the strength of the annual cycle is strongly correlated with the meridional gradient of temperatures and the meridional position of the itcz, thereby supporting the notion that the meridional gradient of sst, the position of the itcz, and the strength of the cross-equatorial trade winds control the strength of the equatorial annual cycle (xie 1994). note also that in fig. 3 the mean position of the anomalous zonally averaged itcz exhibits abrupt changes, whereas the orbital forcing varies smoothly in time. these transitions from a more symmetric to a more asymmetric state are driven by the strength of the orbital forcing and ultimately by the strength of the off-equatorial net shortwave forcing and the meridional sst gradient.1
How are The marginal effects calculated?
the marginal effects are calculated in the following manner: j j p c p k j j j k [?] [?] g g [?] - 
What can we do to compute standard errors?
to compute standard errors, we bootstrap these median marginal effects 1000 times and report the median of these results, as well as whether or not the 90th, 95th, and 99th percent confidence intervals span zero
What is marginal increase in temperature?
a marginal increase in temperature is an increase of 1degc and a marginal increase in precipitation is an increase of 1 mm/month
the marginal effects are calculated in the following manner: j j p c p k j j j k [?] [?] g g [?] - [?] we calculate the marginal effects for each observation in the sample and report the median. to compute standard errors, we bootstrap these median marginal effects 1000 times and report the median of these results, as well as whether or not the 90th, 95th, and 99th percent confidence intervals span zero. by reporting the median draws, probabilities may not sum to one over fuels or in climatic effects over time. a marginal increase in temperature is an increase of 1degc and a marginal increase in precipitation is an increase of 1 mm/month.
Were the current findings made by the trainer?
this study examined the relationship of perceptions of the motivational climate and perceived ability to indices of psychological and physical well-being among male adolescents taking part in a team sport. to date, the examination of the possible correlates of variations in dispositional and/or situationally emphasized achievement goals in sport has largely been restricted to a focus on achievement-related outcomes and processes (duda, 2001a, 2001b). the present findings suggest that the perceived motivational climate created by the coach may also correspond in conceptually consonant ways to indices of athletes' mental and physi
Current Findings Write a note about the coach?
the present findings suggest that the perceived motivational climate created by the coach may also correspond in conceptually consonant ways to indices of athletes' mental and physical welfare. particularly attractive about the situational approach to motivation and well-being epitomized in the present work is the potential it holds for intervention and prevention
What is the mental orientation of an athlete?
although individual remediation to enhance the quality of motivation by changing an athlete's dispositional goal orientation may be effective, it is very expensive and time consuming and may not be very practical in sporting contexts (treasure roberts, 1995). influencing the well-being of athletes through reengineering the motivational climate, therefore, makes more sense from a practical perspective. first, the findings related to the prediction of self-esteem and contingent self-esteem will be discussed. second, results regarding the prediction of emotional/physical exhaustion and physical symptoms as collective indicators of physical ill-being will be addressed
this study examined the relationship of perceptions of the motivational climate and perceived ability to indices of psychological and physical well-being among male adolescents taking part in a team sport. to date, the examination of the possible correlates of variations in dispositional and/or situationally emphasized achievement goals in sport has largely been restricted to a focus on achievement-related outcomes and processes (duda, 2001a, 2001b). the present findings suggest that the perceived motivational climate created by the coach may also correspond in conceptually consonant ways to indices of athletes' mental and physical welfare. particularly attractive about the situational approach to motivation and well-being epitomized in the present work is the potential it holds for intervention and prevention. although individual remediation to enhance the quality of motivation by changing an athlete's dispositional goal orientation may be effective, it is very expensive and time consuming and may not be very practical in sporting contexts (treasure roberts, 1995). influencing the well-being of athletes through reengineering the motivational climate, therefore, makes more sense from a practical perspective. first, the findings related to the prediction of self-esteem and contingent self-esteem will be discussed. second, results regarding the prediction of emotional/physical exhaustion and physical symptoms as collective indicators of physical ill-being will be addressed.
What might be causing the inversely propotional number of hot days in the Southeastern US?
for example, portmann et al.103demonstrated that the rate of increase in the number of hot days per year in late spring in the southeastern us over recent decades is significantly inversely proportional to climatological precipitation. they speculate that changes in biogenic aerosols resulting from land use changes could be responsible
Has the probability of seasonal mean temperatures likely doubled due to human influence?
in such a way stott et al.105showed that the probability of seasonal mean temperatures as warm as those observed in europe in 2003 had very likely at least doubled as a result of human influence (see figure 11
What might be a cause of changes in sea surface temperatures?
two studies,106,107have shown that human-caused changes in greenhouse gases are the main driver of the observed 20th-century increases in sea surface temperatures in the main hurricane formation regions of the atlantic and the pacific
for example, portmann et al.103demonstrated that the rate of increase in the number of hot days per year in late spring in the southeastern us over recent decades is significantly inversely proportional to climatological precipitation. they speculate that changes in biogenic aerosols resulting from land use changes could be responsible. in addition to analyzing trends in extremes, a new framework has been developed for attributing individual extreme events. in such a framework, as elucidated by allen,104the change in the probability of an extreme event under current conditions is calculated and compared with the probability of the event if the effects of particular external forcings, such as due to human influence, had been absent. in such a way stott et al.105showed that the probability of seasonal mean temperatures as warm as those observed in europe in 2003 had very likely at least doubled as a result of human influence (see figure 11). the same general approach could, in theory, be applied to other extreme weather events such as floods or droughts, in order to determine whether the probability of a particular event has changed as a result of a chosen set of climate forcing factors, although in practice this will require models capable of capturing the relevant processes. attributing causes to changes in the frequency and intensity of hurricanes has remained very controversial. two studies,106,107have shown that human-caused changes in greenhouse gases are the main driver of the observed 20th-century increases in sea surface temperatures in the main hurricane formation regions of the atlantic and the pacific. however, the importance of the anthropogenic increase in sea surface temperature in the cyclogensis region for past and future changes in hurricane activity is still poorly understood.108the limitations of the observed database and of current climate models in resolving processes relevant for hurricanes make progress in this field difficult at present. in conclusion, while there has been progress since ar4, there are still many gaps in our understanding of changes in extremes and in our ability to attribute observed changes to particular causes. changes in temperature extremes have proven to be more interesting and difficult than an assumption of a shift of the distribution would lead to expect, particularly so for daily maxima.103while attribution of change in precipitation extremes is made difficult by the lack of tools for reliable comparison of models with observations, perfect model studies indicate that changes in precipitation extremes should be detectable at least on large scales.109
what do the marrakech agreements exclude?
the marrakech accords exclude deforestation avoidance projects under the cdm because of concerns by several parties related to: * leakage
what santilli et all is up to?
antilli et al point out that their proposal would address leakage and nonpermanence we largely agree with this assessment, but there are a few caveats
what are the concerns about the leakage issue?
because of concerns by several parties related to: * leakage, which refers to indirect effects of the mitigation project on ghg emissions outside the project or even country boundaries
the marrakech accords exclude deforestation avoidance projects under the cdm because of concerns by several parties related to: * leakage, which refers to indirect effects of the mitigation project on ghg emissions outside the project or even country boundaries; * non-permanence, which occurs when carbon sequestered in a forest restoration project, or carbon "protected" through deforestation avoidance, is released to the atmosphere at a future date due to natural or anthropogenic disturbance; * uncertainties of estimates of how much deforestation has actually been avoided, compared to a business-as-usual baseline; * scale of possible emission reductions, resulting in industrialized countries putting less effort into emission reductions from burning of fossil fuels. santilli et al point out that their proposal would address leakage and nonpermanence we largely agree with this assessment, but there are a few caveats.
What most influenced South African farmers' planting decisions?
found that wealthier households made planting decisions that were less diversified for climate risks than poor ones in order to better target market demand and maximize profits
For Ethiopian cattle herders, how does household wealth influence pastoral decisions?
lybbert et al. (2004) found a threshold level of cattle ownership above which pastoralists can engage in more "opportunistic, spatially flexible herding" strategies and realize lower herd mortality rates
How are policy efforts hurting cattle farmers in Ethiopia?
establish clear land tenure and push for permanent settlement of these pastoralists, undermining the traditional resiliency of herding against climate variability
the choice strategy pursued by rural households to minimize climate risk depends on household wealth (m. r rosenzweig and binswanger 1993; lybbert et al. 2004; ziervogel, bharwani, and downing 2006; gine, townsend, and vickery 2008). in a case study of south african farmers, (ziervogel, bharwani, and downing 2006) found that wealthier households made planting decisions that were less diversified for climate risks than poor ones in order to better target market demand and maximize profits. "better-off entrepreneurial farmers tend to block plant their whole plot with a single market crop, thereby producing a good income in a good year or potentially significant losses in a bad year (ziervogel, bharwani, and downing 2006, 298)." the different climate risk strategies pursued by wealthier households can result in profoundly different average profit outcomes. rosenzweig and binswanger (1993) found that increasing the coefficient of variation of rainfall by one standard deviation reduced estimated farm profits for the poorest wealth quartile by 35% while the richest quartile was virtually unaffected by more uncertain rainfall. a similar division exists for wealthy and poor cattle herders in ethiopia. lybbert et al. (2004) found a threshold level of cattle ownership above which pastoralists can engage in more "opportunistic, spatially flexible herding" strategies and realize lower herd mortality rates. households below this threshold have less flexibility given adverse climate shocks and draw more intensively on the remaining herd for nutrition, thereby boosting herd mortality rates and resulting in smaller equilibrium herd sizes. poorer pastoralists with smaller herds must supplant their food supplies with purchased, harvested, or donated food, constraining their ability to migrate to better grazing lands. their ability to maintain depleted herds is further eroded by policy efforts to establish clear land tenure and push for permanent settlement of these pastoralists, undermining the traditional resiliency of herding against climate variability.
Do landscape 2013 track lifetime inflows or outflows?
landscape 2013 does not track lifetime inflows (revenues) or outflows (costs
What is included in the estimates of finance of Landscape 2013?
estimates of finance only include policy incentives provided as grants or concessional loans, excluding the value of policy-induced revenues, such as feed-in tariffs or carbon market payments
Is the finance of the landscape 2013 were capture on a gross or net basis?
all finance in the landscape is captured on a gross rather than net basis
landscape 2013 does not track lifetime inflows (revenues) or outflows (costs), our estimates of finance only include policy incentives provided as grants or concessional loans, excluding the value of policy-induced revenues, such as feed-in tariffs or carbon market payments. it also excludes potential guarantee payments that may be made over projects' lifetimes as such risk management instruments are only exercised in particular circumstances. difficulties in estimating the grant element of low cost debt mean that we are unable to accurately quantify the incremental4 component of investment costs. indeed, all finance in the landscape is captured on a gross rather than net basis.5
From which data precipitation in the relevant year calculated?
in the specifications that use the degree days measures of temperature, the measure of precipitation is total precipitation in the growing season. this measure is just the sum of precipitation across the growing season months in the relevant year calculated from the prism data
Which model assumes a uniform 5deg F increase in temperature and 8% increase in precipitation?
ipcc 1990; nas 1992) this model assumes a uniform (across months and regions of the us and their interaction) 5deg f increase in temperature and 8% increase in precipitation
How many sets of predictions are there about climate change to be rely upon?
climate change predictions we rely on two sets of predictions about climate change to develop our estimates of its effects on us agricultural land
in the specifications that use the degree days measures of temperature, the measure of precipitation is total precipitation in the growing season. this measure is just the sum of precipitation across the growing season months in the relevant year calculated from the prism data. climate change predictions we rely on two sets of predictions about climate change to develop our estimates of its effects on us agricultural land. the first predictions follow the convention in the literature and rely on the climate change scenario from the 1st ipcc report associated with a doubling of atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases by the end of the 21st century. (ipcc 1990; nas 1992) this model assumes a uniform (across months and regions of the us and their interaction) 5deg f increase in temperature and 8% increase in precipitation. the convention in the previous literature is to use these predictions.14
How many models are used in the simulations?
simulations by eight models
What is the website address of the Program Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison?
their website: http://pcmdi9.llnl.gov/esgf-web-fe
What does the acronyms DSL, DSE and DSA stand for?
the changes of the dryseason length (dsl), dry-season end (dse), and dry-season arrival (dsa
the intergovernmental panel on climate change ' s fifth assessment report models and simulations the intergovernmental panel on climate change ' s fifth assessment report (ipcc ar5) model outputs are archived and made available to the scienti fi c community by the program climate model diagnosis and intercomparison at their website: http://pcmdi9.llnl.gov/esgf-web-fe/ these models ' outputs have various spatial resolutions. we remap them and observations onto a 2 5 8 x 2 5 8 latitudinal and longitudinal grid to minimize the differences due to different resolutions in our comparison. simulations by eight models that provide daily rainfall outputs are used to determine the changes of the dryseason length (dsl), dry-season end (dse), and dry-season arrival (dsa).
What is the goal of this project ?
in investigating how global change will affect population vulnerability to climate variability and extremes, the project aims to help develop strategies that enable societies to better cope with the consequences of climate change. in doing so, the basic hypothesis being tested is that societies can develop the most effective long-term defense against the dangers of climate change by strengthening human capacity, primarily through education. education can directly influence risk perception, skills and knowledge and indirectly reduce poverty, improve health and promote access to information and resources. hence, when facing natural hazards or climate risks, educated individuals, households and societies are assumed to be more empowered and more adaptive in their response to, preparation for, and recovery from disasters
Why is it difficult to assess the likely impacts of climate change on human well-being ?
while there is substantial ongoing research assessing the impact of future climate change on the earth's physical systems, there are few systematic and comprehensive assessments on the likely impacts that change will have on future human well-being, given that not all people are equally vulnerable. it is admittedly very difficult if not impossible to try to assess how dangerous climate change will be in general for the future of humanity
What are the threats that emanate from climate change ?
the threats come most directly from increasingly intense extreme natural events, such as hurricanes, floods, forest fires and heat waves. danger also comes from more gradual events, such as sea-level rise and changing regional temperature and humidity patterns that make agricultural production more difficult. changing climate patterns also can increase the spread of disease. the extent to which these events will increase human misery and death depends, in part, on the future vulnerability of the people affected
the collection of articles in this special feature is part of a larger project on "forecasting societies' adaptive capacity to climate change" (an advanced grant of the european research council to wolfgang lutz). in investigating how global change will affect population vulnerability to climate variability and extremes, the project aims to help develop strategies that enable societies to better cope with the consequences of climate change. in doing so, the basic hypothesis being tested is that societies can develop the most effective long-term defense against the dangers of climate change by strengthening human capacity, primarily through education. education can directly influence risk perception, skills and knowledge and indirectly reduce poverty, improve health and promote access to information and resources. hence, when facing natural hazards or climate risks, educated individuals, households and societies are assumed to be more empowered and more adaptive in their response to, preparation for, and recovery from disasters. indeed the findings from eleven original empirical studies set in diverse geographic, socioeconomic, cultural and hazard contexts provide consistent and robust evidence on the positive impact of formal education on vulnerability reduction. highly educated individuals and societies are reported to have better preparedness and response to the disasters, suffered lower negative impacts, and are able to recover faster. this suggests that public investment in empowering people and enhancing human capacity through education can have a positive externality in reducing vulnerability and strengthening adaptive capacity amidst the challenges of a changing climate. key words: adaptive capacity; climate change; differential vulnerability; education; human capital; natural disasters while there is substantial ongoing research assessing the impact of future climate change on the earth's physical systems, there are few systematic and comprehensive assessments on the likely impacts that change will have on future human well-being, given that not all people are equally vulnerable. it is admittedly very difficult if not impossible to try to assess how dangerous climate change will be in general for the future of humanity. but we still have to make policy choices today about what are priority investments that help to reduce the vulnerabilities of people in different parts of the world to already unavoidable climate change. given our ignorance about the extent of the overall threat, it makes sense to try to refer to things we think we know with high certainty. one is the fact that the social sciences have shown very clearly that to almost any kind of risk people are not equally vulnerable. vulnerabilities vary by age, gender, education, level of income, location and many other factors. hence it is plausible to assume that the future will also see differential vulnerability to the hazards associated with climate change. but from a policy perspective we also would like to know which of these differentials matter most? the set of papers in this collection will address this question with respect to empirical analysis of vulnerability to past natural disasters, since this is the only empirical evidence - assumed to be isomorphic to what we expect under climate change - that we have on the table. more specifically, the papers will contribute to testing the hypothesis that education is a key factor in reducing vulnerability as compared to other potentially relevant factors. this collection of papers is one of the results of a larger project on "forecasting societies' adaptive capacity to climate change" (an advanced grant of the european research council to wolfgang lutz). this project is an ambitious effort to better understand what changes societies are likely to undergo over the next several decades, and determine how those changes will affect their vulnerability to a climate that is more extreme than it is today. the aim is to help develop strategies that enable societies to better cope with the consequences of climate change. the threats come most directly from increasingly intense extreme natural events, such as hurricanes, floods, forest fires and heat waves. danger also comes from more gradual events, such as sea-level rise and changing regional temperature and humidity patterns that make agricultural production more difficult. changing climate patterns also can increase the spread of disease. the extent to which these events will increase human misery and death depends, in part, on the future vulnerability of the people affected. the starting assumption of the project was that a robust and resilient society will be better able to weather the storms of climate change than a society with few resources and limited coping skills. in this project those skills and capabilities are being measured and projected through the educational attainment distributions of populations by age and gender. the basic hypothesis being tested is that societies can develop the most effective long-term defense against the dangers of climate change by strengthening human capacity, primarily through education - which helps to improve health, eradicate extreme poverty and reduce population growth. the empirical studies published in this special issue try to assess its validity under very diverse geographic, socioeconomic and cultural settings. what all the studies have in common is that they explicitly address the effects of education on disaster vulnerability and compare them to other possible relevant effects. since the consideration of education as a possible protecting factor has so far been largely absent from the scientific literature on disaster vulnerability, this
How is influent distributed from an industrial effluent reactor?
the influent is usually distributed from the bottom of the reactor
How is upward velocity reduced?
use larger cross sections close to the sedimentation compartment
How is domestic sewage treated in a reactor?
reactors treating domestic sewage, where the influent distribution device is located in the upper part of the reactor
for reactors treating industrial effluents, the influent is usually distributed from the bottom of the reactor, unlike reactors treating domestic sewage, where the influent distribution device is located in the upper part of the reactor (see figures 27.8 to 27.10). consequently, the surface area of the sedimentation compartment may be reduced in view of the area occupied by the influent distribution device. thus, depending on the hydraulic loads applied to the system, it may be necessary to use larger cross sections close to the sedimentation compartment, to reduce the upward velocities and enable the sedimentation of the sludge in this compartment. in this case, the reactor adopts a variable section, smaller close to the digestion compartment and larger close to the sedimentation compartment (see figure 27.9).
The increase in greenhouse gases has already what?
the increase in greenhouse gases has already substantially changed climate
Seasonality and intensities of precipitation, weather patterns, and substantial retreat of the Arctic sea ice and almost all continental glaciers have what?
seasonality and intensities of precipitation, weather patterns, and substantial retreat of the arctic sea ice and almost all continental glaciers have dramatically changed
The IPCC states that the evidence for global warming is what?
the ipcc states that the evidence for global warming is unequivocal and is believed to be due to human activity
the increase in greenhouse gases has already substantially changed climate; average global temperatures have risen 0*76degc and the sea level has risen over 4 cm. seasonality and intensities of precipitation, weather patterns, and substantial retreat of the arctic sea ice and almost all continental glaciers have dramatically changed.4 the 12 warmest years on record within the past 150 years have been during the past 13 years: 1998 was the warmest, followed by 2005, 2002, 2003, and 2004. the ipcc states that the evidence for global warming is unequivocal and is believed to be due to human activity.4 this idea is supported by many organisations, including the royal society and the american association for the advancement of science.
What is noted by Lilliana Mason?
however, as lilliana mason and other political analysts note, individuals can hold relatively moderate positions on many issues and yet be strong partisans committed to keeping the other party out of office.85 thus, as long as rank-and-file republicans vote for conservative candidates, and those candidates remain steadfast in opposition to climate change action, the former's receptivity to climate-friendly policies remains almost irrelevant--for the congress they help elect will be highly unlikely to give such policies any consideration
What does the republican antipathy to governmental regulations and enormous campaign contributions to the GOP from fossil fuel interests mean?
republican antipathy to governmental regulations, combined with enormous campaign contributions to the gop from fossil fuel interests,86 means that most republican politicians have strong ideological as well as material reasons for opposing measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, in addition to pressure from party activists and voters
What might a Republican President do for climate change policies?
conversely, a republican president, especially paired with a republicancontrolled congress (and a conservative majority on the supreme court), might well take a huge step backward in our nation's efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and also undermine international cooperation to deal with climate change
some observers find optimism in recent polls showing that large pluralities and sometimes even small majorities of republican voters (compared to sizable majorities of democrats) express support for energy policies and other measures that would be helpful in reducing greenhouse gas emissions.84 however, as lilliana mason and other political analysts note, individuals can hold relatively moderate positions on many issues and yet be strong partisans committed to keeping the other party out of office.85 thus, as long as rank-and-file republicans vote for conservative candidates, and those candidates remain steadfast in opposition to climate change action, the former's receptivity to climate-friendly policies remains almost irrelevant--for the congress they help elect will be highly unlikely to give such policies any consideration. republican antipathy to governmental regulations, combined with enormous campaign contributions to the gop from fossil fuel interests,86 means that most republican politicians have strong ideological as well as material reasons for opposing measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, in addition to pressure from party activists and voters. the consequence is that the 2016 u.s. national election promises to be of historic importance in our nation's and the world's efforts to deal with humancaused climate change. a democratic president, especially bolstered by a democratic majority in the u.s. senate, would likely strive to continue the momentum generated by president obama's recent climate initiates employing executive actions,87 despite major opposition from a republican house of representatives and continued stalemate on legislation. conversely, a republican president, especially paired with a republicancontrolled congress (and a conservative majority on the supreme court), might well take a huge step backward in our nation's efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and also undermine international cooperation to deal with climate change. whether, and how, individual americans vote this november may well be the most consequential climaterelated decision most of them will have ever taken. orcid aaron m. mccright http://orcid. org/0000-0001-6251-5251
What is one principal ingredient in maintaining a cold climate?
1) the weak lapse rate occasioned by absence of convection in the winter hemisphere, (2) the strong seasonal cycle, which permits a considerable heat export from the tropics to the winter hemisphere, (3) extensive snow cover, increasing surface albedo, (4) reduction of ice surface temperature by a strong diurnal cycle rectified by nonlinearities in bulk surface heat fluxes, and (5) weak cloud greenhouse effects
What aspect of snow and ice is affected by dust?
the albedo of ice and snow
Does dark ice produce substantial warming in summertime?
dark ice in conjunction with reduced snow cover, or dark, dusty snow, did produce a very substantial warming of the summertime maximum temperature
the aggregate effect of all the physics represented in the gcm but left out of prior deglaciation studies is to leave the annual mean equatorial ice surface temperature at a frigid 244 k even with .2 bars of co2 in the atmosphere. this is nearly 30 k short of the temperature where deglaciation is likely to commence, and the cold temperatures prevail despite a conservative choice of surface albedo parameters which are arguably unrealistically favorable to deglaciation. the principal ingredients maintaining such a cold climate are as follows: (1) the weak lapse rate occasioned by absence of convection in the winter hemisphere, (2) the strong seasonal cycle, which permits a considerable heat export from the tropics to the winter hemisphere, (3) extensive snow cover, increasing surface albedo, (4) reduction of ice surface temperature by a strong diurnal cycle rectified by nonlinearities in bulk surface heat fluxes, and (5) weak cloud greenhouse effects. these results are pertinent also to the general problem of recovery of the early earth or extrasolar planets from a frozen ''cold start.'' if it is so hard to deglaciate earth under neoproterozoic conditions, it will be correspondingly harder at times of a yet fainter sun; co2 clouds and buildup of alternate greenhouse gases become even more crucial to the recovery than previously thought. all of the phenomena inhibiting deglaciation are to some extent affected by parameterization, and it should be recognized that our simulation represents only the first step in the long process of coming to an understanding of the collective behavior of the climate system in fully glaciated conditions. surface albedo and clouds offer many possibilities for surprises. the albedo of ice and snow is affected by dust, bubble formation, and the complex physical structure of sea ice; we did not model any of these features, but did probe some of the sensitivity of the system. we found that fairly substantial reductions in the assumed ice albedo had little effect, because most of the ice is shielded by snow cover. dark ice in conjunction with reduced snow cover, or dark, dusty snow, did produce a very substantial warming of the summertime maximum temperature, but much less increase in the equatorial annual mean temperature. the results are summarized in table 3. clouds are notoriously difficult to model, and in light of the primitive empirical cloud formulation used in our simulations, the predicted
When do children learn about bullying behaviors?
children who are more aggressive or engage in bullying during the early elementary years come to view this behavior as more appropriate
Higher levels of bullying are associated with what?
consistent with this expectation, some studies have found that higher levels of bullying are associated with low selfesteem
Where are kids more likely to act out or bully?
henry et al. (2000) found that students were more likely to act aggressively in classrooms where students and teachers increased the salience of aggressive norms
individual children's beliefs about the normative status of behavior have been linked to both bullying and aggression. stated simply, as children learn that such behaviors are acceptable and appropriate, they are more likely to engage in bullying or other forms of aggression. children develop normative beliefs about behavior that guide their actions. children who are more aggressive or engage in bullying during the early elementary years come to view this behavior as more appropriate. in turn, as normative beliefs stabilize during the late elementary years, they predict more aggressive behavior (huesmann guerra, 1997). these individual beliefs also are contingent on the normative approval of fellow classmates. for example, henry et al. (2000) found that students were more likely to act aggressively in classrooms where students and teachers increased the salience of aggressive norms. in addition, studies have examined gender differences in normative support for aggression, with findings demonstrating greater normative support for physical aggression among boys (e.g., crick, bigbee, howes, 1996). not surprisingly, approving beliefs about more indirect forms of bullying have been found to be specifically associated with increases in insults, social exclusion, and the spreading of false rumors more characteristic of girls (werner nixon, 2005). hence, the second hypothesis tested is as follows: the more bullying is normatively approved, the greater will be the frequency of this behavior. besides individual normative beliefs about bullying, the present study examined whether this form of aggressive behavior was predicted by beliefs about the self, particularly an individual's sense of self-esteem. the selection of this individual characteristic is strategic given the mixed results that have been reported in previous studies. much of the research on the role of self-esteem has examined its influence more generally on aggressive behavior from childhood through adulthood. although intuitively appealing to expect high self-esteem to predict lower involvement in bullying and low self-esteem to predict higher involvement in this behavior, empirical findings have been mixed. consistent with this expectation, some studies have found that higher levels of bullying are associated with low selfesteem (andreou, 2001; jankauskiene, kardelis, sukys, kardeliene, 2008; o'moore kirkham, 2001). however, contrary to this expectation, other
What promotes overturning in the modern polar ocean? And why?
the low-latitude ocean is strongly stratified by the warmth of its surface water. as a result, the great volume of the deep ocean has easiest access to the atmosphere through the polar surface ocean. in the modern polar ocean during the winter, the vertical distribution of temperature promotes overturning, with colder water over warmer, while the salinity distribution typically promotes stratification, with fresher water over saltier
What about the sensitivity of seawater density approaching the freezing point?
however, the sensitivity of seawater density to temperature is reduced as temperature approaches the freezing point, with potential consequences for global ocean circulation under cold climates1,2. here we present deep-sea records of biogenic opal accumulation and sedimentary nitrogen isotopic composition from the subarctic north pacific ocean and the southern ocean
The role of temperature in polar ocean density structure ? Which effect of the vertical salinity distribution?
these records indicate that vertical stratification increased in both northern and southern high latitudes 2.7 million years ago, when northern hemisphere glaciation intensified in association with global cooling during the late pliocene epoch. we propose that the cooling caused this increased stratification by weakening the role of temperature in polar ocean density structure so as to reduce its opposition to the stratifying effect of the vertical salinity distribution. the shift towards stratification in the polar ocean 2.7 million years ago may have increased the quantity of carbon dioxide trapped in the abyss, amplifying the global cooling
the low-latitude ocean is strongly stratified by the warmth of its surface water. as a result, the great volume of the deep ocean has easiest access to the atmosphere through the polar surface ocean. in the modern polar ocean during the winter, the vertical distribution of temperature promotes overturning, with colder water over warmer, while the salinity distribution typically promotes stratification, with fresher water over saltier. however, the sensitivity of seawater density to temperature is reduced as temperature approaches the freezing point, with potential consequences for global ocean circulation under cold climates1,2. here we present deep-sea records of biogenic opal accumulation and sedimentary nitrogen isotopic composition from the subarctic north pacific ocean and the southern ocean. these records indicate that vertical stratification increased in both northern and southern high latitudes 2.7 million years ago, when northern hemisphere glaciation intensified in association with global cooling during the late pliocene epoch. we propose that the cooling caused this increased stratification by weakening the role of temperature in polar ocean density structure so as to reduce its opposition to the stratifying effect of the vertical salinity distribution. the shift towards stratification in the polar ocean 2.7 million years ago may have increased the quantity of carbon dioxide trapped in the abyss, amplifying the global cooling. the subarctic zone in the north pacific ocean and the antarctic zone in the southern ocean are both characterized by year-round availability of the 'major nutrients' nitrate and phosphate. nutrientrich deep water is brought to the surface by wind-driven upwelling and density-driven overturning. limitation of algal growth by light3
In addition to global warming, which peculiar characteristic of the Himalayas makes them one of the most complex mountain areas of the planet?
the himalayas cover one of the most dynamic and complex mountain ranges in the world due to tectonic activity
Which are some of the physical manifestations of climate change in the mountains and particularly in the Himalayas?
the physical manifestations of climate change in the mountains include locally, possibly regionally, extreme increases in temperature and in the frequency and duration of extreme events. it seems certain there will be appreciable changes in the volumes and/or timing of river fl ows and other fresh water sources
What are some of the measures that could help reduce uncertainty about the rates and direction of Himalayas' climatic-related changes?
to reduce uncertainty we need well-equipped baseline stations, long-term monitoring, networking, open data exchange, and cooperation between all the himalayan regional member countries
the himalayas cover one of the most dynamic and complex mountain ranges in the world due to tectonic activity, and they are vulnerable to global warming and increasing human activities (bandyopadhyay and gyawali 1994). uncertainties about the rate and magnitude of climate change and potential impacts prevail, but there is no question that it is gradually and powerfully changing the ecological and socioeconomic landscape in the himalayan region, particularly in relation to water. business as usual is not an option. it is imperative to revisit and redesign research agendas, development policies, management and conservation practices, and appropriate technologies. given the level of uncertainty in science and research in the himalayas, policies should be 'adaptation friendly'. mitigation of carbon emissions should be a responsibility shared among citizens and the private sector in the mountains as elsewhere. adaptation and mitigation measures intended to cope with climate change can create opportunities as well as offsetting the dangers of a warming planet; but they must be identi fi ed and adopted ahead of, rather than in reaction to, dangerous trends. himalayan uncertainty - we speak of uncertainty on a himalayan scale in recognition that our science and information systems are no match for the complexity and diversity of regional contexts, quite apart from the lack of studies and basic data. in no context is this more relevant than in predicting what climate change will involve. the physical manifestations of climate change in the mountains include locally, possibly regionally, extreme increases in temperature and in the frequency and duration of extreme events. it seems certain there will be appreciable changes in the volumes and/or timing of river fl ows and other fresh water sources. there is, however, great uncertainty about the rates and even the direction of these changes, because so little is known about the dynamics of himalayan topoclimates and hydrological processes and their response to changing climatic inputs. the global circulation models used to model climates capture global warming on a broad scale, but do not have adequate predictive power even for large himalayan drainage basins. to reduce uncertainty we need well-equipped baseline stations, long-term monitoring, networking, open data exchange, and cooperation between all the himalayan regional member countries. icimod can play a role in facilitating knowledge generation, exchange, and cooperation with international mountain research programmes such as the global observation research initiative in alpine environments (gloria), global mountain biodiversity assessment (gmba), unesco biosphere reserves, and the mountain research initiative. adaptive responses - the need for fl exibility and resilience. climate change is not new for himalayan people. tectonic uplift and quaternary climate changes, including recovery from the last major glacial period and little ice age mean that every aspect of life has been adapted to, or stressed by, changing temperature regimes, water availability, and extreme events. himalayan farmers and herders have a long history of adapting to these uncertainties, other related and unrelated environmental changes, and ecological surprises, whether through mobility of people and land uses, or fl exibility in livelihood strategies and institutional arrangements. mountain people have lived with and survived great hazards such as fl ash fl oods, avalanches, and droughts for millennia. building the capacity to adapt and strengthen the social-ecological system in the face of climate change is doubly important and is an important step in achieving sustainable livelihoods. supporting and being resilient, and encouraging strategies to cope with surprises and long-term changes, are the new adaptive mantras, unlike earlier notions of improving people's adaptations to relatively stable and known habitats. climate change, as a public and global issue, has evolved from a narrow interest in the hydrometeorological sciences to a broad recognition that both the social consequences and policies in response have implications in all aspects of human development. adaptive policies and major efforts to reverse the human drivers of climate change have to be incorporated into all sectors: land use, water management, disaster management, energy consumption, and human health. hazard mapping would help both decision-makers and local communities to understand the current situation and through this it would be possible to anticipate or assess the fl exibility to adapt to future changes through proper planning and technical designs. linking science and policy in climate change - good science with credible, salient, legitimate knowledge can often lead to good policies in the context of climate change and mountain speci fi cities or vice versa (thompson and gyawali 2007). by credible, we mean knowledge that has been derived from fi eld observations and tested by local communities; salient information is immediately relevant
what is seasonal variation?
the seasonal variation of the mean distribution of the number of people at the seashore also demonstrates strong dependency on the prevailing meteorological conditions
what is the highest occurence of people coincides for autumn and winter?
the highest occurrence of people coincides for autumn and winter (fig. 19), at midday. as in karaiskaki absolute numbers of autumn and winter are 300-400% higher than in the summer during daytime
what is the exception of summer daytime period?
the exception is the summer daytime period, where the playground receives about 50-60% of the visitors with the benches receiving a large amount of the rest of the users, (fig. 21), due to the people going there for swimming. given the size of the area, the benches receive a low number of people in the other seasons, predominantly due to the fact that being next to the seashore, they are exposed to the wind and increased humidity
the seasonal variation of the mean distribution of the number of people at the seashore also demonstrates strong dependency on the prevailing meteorological conditions. in summer (fig. 19), presence is relatively stable in the morning period, at comparatively low numbers, once again decreasing after midday. similarly to karaiskaki, in early evening presence increases significantly, a result of the decreasing air temperature and absence of intense solar radiation. the highest occurrence of people coincides for autumn and winter (fig. 19), at midday. as in karaiskaki absolute numbers of autumn and winter are 300-400% higher than in the summer during daytime. the playground is the main attraction of the site at all seasons, receiving approximately 80% of the population most of the time (fig. 20), the rest found mostly at the benches by the seashore. the exception is the summer daytime period, where the playground receives about 50-60% of the visitors with the benches receiving a large amount of the rest of the users, (fig. 21), due to the people going there for swimming. given the size of the area, the benches receive a low number of people in the other seasons, predominantly due to the fact that being next to the seashore, they are exposed to the wind and increased humidity.
Why did a dozen states in the US file a suit against the US government during the Bush administration?
in a desperate attempt to get the bush administration to accept its responsibilities in relation to climate change, a dozen us states filed a suit against the us government to force them to act on global climate change
What was claimed in law suit filed against the US Government during the Bush administration?
in the suit the states claimed that the agency was ignoring federal studies that demonstrate that climate change is causing ' disease, extreme weather, destruction of shoreline and loss of critical wetlands and estuaries
What was not cited in the climate change law suit against the US government during the Bush administration?
what was not cited are the economic and human impacts of the desertification of tracts of the mid-west and the huge costs of the inevitable, and happening, mass migration of people from stricken areas as agriculture is devastated by the climate
in a desperate attempt to get the bush administration to accept its responsibilities in relation to climate change, a dozen us states filed a suit against the us government to force them to act on global climate change. 4 in the suit the states claimed that the agency was ignoring federal studies that demonstrate that climate change is causing ' disease, extreme weather, destruction of shoreline and loss of critical wetlands and estuaries ' what was not cited are the economic and human impacts of the desertification of tracts of the mid-west and the huge costs of the inevitable, and happening, mass migration of people from stricken areas as agriculture is devastated by the climate. in the uk could similar charges be levelled? the already stretched water reserves of the southeastern area of england are to be required to supply a massive increase in homes and population in the region, imposed upon them by the current government, so threatening future availability of summer water supplies in the region. 5 will such decisions be the source of law suits, either from water utility companies that will find it increasingly expensive to make less water go further, or from populations whose water bills rise to insupportable levels because of injudicious decisions by transient governments? similarly, as whole neighbourhoods of a city have their transport, sewerage, water and electricity services compromised to support a monster building, for instance, whose developers have sold, profited and moved on without paying for any of the environmental impacts of that building, will the polluters, in these cases, be made to pay? one of the core issues here is the extent of the vulnerability of communities to impacts.
What is critical to understanding the link between climate change and biodiversity?
precise characterization of hydroclimate variability in amazonia on various timescales is critical to understanding the link between climate change and biodiversity
What type of a pattern does the orbital-scale precipitation variability between western and eastern Amazonia exhibit?
a quasi-dipole pattern
What is contrary to the 'Refugia Hypothesis' during the last glacial period?
during the last glacial period, our records imply a modest increase in precipitation amount in western amazonia but a significant drying in eastern amazonia, suggesting that higher biodiversity in western amazonia, contrary to 'refugia hypothesis', is maintained under relatively stable climatic conditions
precise characterization of hydroclimate variability in amazonia on various timescales is critical to understanding the link between climate change and biodiversity. here we present absolute-dated speleothem oxygen isotope records that characterize hydroclimate variation in western and eastern amazonia over the past 250 and 20 ka, respectively. although our records demonstrate the coherent millennial-scale precipitation variability across tropical- subtropical south america, the orbital-scale precipitation variability between western and eastern amazonia exhibits a quasi-dipole pattern. during the last glacial period, our records imply a modest increase in precipitation amount in western amazonia but a significant drying in eastern amazonia, suggesting that higher biodiversity in western amazonia, contrary to 'refugia hypothesis', is maintained under relatively stable climatic conditions. in contrast, the glacial-interglacial climatic perturbations might have been instances of loss rather than gain in biodiversity in eastern amazonia, where forests may have been more susceptible to fragmentation in response to larger swings in hydroclimate.
Do fish eat more from the coral reefs if there is lower amount of sediment loads?
removal of sediment increased overall fish feeding rates 3.8-fold, and resulted in a decrease in mean algal turf length of 64 within 4 h
How many species fed on the sediment loads?
a total of 20 species actively fed on the sediment removal plots, compared with 12 species in control plots
What impact does climate change have with coral reefs in the ocean?
with projected global sea-level rises due to climate change, reef-based sediment loads may be a critical factor in differentiating the relative resilience of coral reefs and identifying reef ecosystems that are at highest risk to rising sea levels
we describe a mechanistic basis for maintaining an alternative degraded stable state on coral reefs: sedimentladen algal turfs. using remote underwater video cameras we quantified rates of herbivory by coral reef fishes on epilithic algal turfs with natural and experimentally reduced sediment loads. removal of sediment increased overall fish feeding rates 3.8-fold, and resulted in a decrease in mean algal turf length of 64 within 4 h. after 4 h, sediment accumulated in the treatment plots, but only returned to 41 of the original depth. a total of 20 species actively fed on the sediment removal plots, compared with 12 species in control plots. of the five numerically abundant herbivorous fish species, all increased feeding by at least 225 in the absence of sediment. only juvenile scarus spp. fed to any extent (28 of bites) on control plots. we suggest that naturally occurring sediment loads in epilithic algal turfs can suppress herbivory and that sediment-laden algal turfs may be an alternative stable state on coral reefs. this may provide a mechanistic basis for the geological evidence of a sediment-induced turn-off of coral reef growth. with projected global sea-level rises due to climate change, reef-based sediment loads may be a critical factor in differentiating the relative resilience of coral reefs and identifying reef ecosystems that are at highest risk to rising sea levels.
Where does the pollutants enter the water body?
in diffuse pollution, the pollutants enter the water body distributed at various locations along its length
What is the focus of this book?
the focus of this book is the control of point-source pollution by means of wastewater treatment
Where does the pollutants reach the water body in point-source pollution?
in point-source pollution, the pollutants reach the water body in points concentrated in the space
in point-source pollution, the pollutants reach the water body in points concentrated in the space. usually the discharge of domestic and industrial wastewater generates point-source pollution, since the discharges are through outfalls. in diffuse pollution, the pollutants enter the water body distributed at various locations along its length. this is the typical case of storm water drainage, either in rural areas (no pipelines) or in urban areas (storm water collection system, with multiple discharges into the water body). the focus of this book is the control of point-source pollution by means of wastewater treatment. in the developing regions, there is practically everything still to be done in terms of the control of point-source pollution originating from cities and industries.
Why separate analyses proved problematic ?
separate analyses proved problematic for two main reasons. firstly, the number of cases for any specific pathogen was small, so patterns were unclear. secondly, a high proportion (29.5%) of cases had more than one pathogen identified, making classification of the underlying cause of the visit difficult
the capacity of the hospital should be an important threat to this study?
the capacity of the hospital should not be an important threat to this study
What is the conclusion of this study?
in conclusion, this study found evidence that the number of non-cholera diarrhoea cases increases both above and below a threshold level with high and low rainfall in the preceding weeks
we have reported results for all non-cholera diarrhoea, though associations between rainfall or temperature would not necessarily be the same for different pathogens, as indicated by their different seasonal patterns. separate analyses proved problematic for two main reasons. firstly, the number of cases for any specific pathogen was small, so patterns were unclear. secondly, a high proportion (29.5%) of cases had more than one pathogen identified, making classification of the underlying cause of the visit difficult. therefore, the results of this study should be interpreted with caution in this regard, although the analyses without the inclusion of rotavirus diarrhoea, which is most likely to differ from the rest of the pathogens in its relationship with climate, provided the results largely unchanged. further studies for the effect of climate on pathogen-specific diarrhoea are warranted. less severe cases would be less likely to be included, but this does not pose a threat to validity of the comparisons over time, which is the subject of this study. more problematic would be cases missing because of limitations in the capacity of the hospital to receive the patients, in particular during epidemics of diarrhoeal diseases. however, in principle, the hospital accepts all patients visiting the hospital and has never refused patients due to over capacity. thus, the capacity of the hospital should not be an important threat to this study. if a bias remained, it would act to 'blunten' peaks, and thus most likely bias associations towards the null. in this study, rainfall and temperature were found to explain departure of the number of diarrhoea cases from the usual seasonal pattern. this does not mean that these factors can explain the usual seasonal patterns themselves. further work could clarify the role of weather in the seasonality of diarrhoea in bangladesh and would be of interest. the results of this study can contribute to development of early warning systems to predict epidemics of diarrhoea. the vulnerable groups identified in this study should have particular focus in the use of such a warning system. expected increases in temperature, changes in precipitation patterns and increased flooding in bangladesh18also give particular relevance to the results, though the short-term associations reported here should not be directly extrapolated to changes in climate over decades. in conclusion, this study found evidence that the number of non-cholera diarrhoea cases increases both above and below a threshold level with high and low rainfall in the preceding weeks. most of the effects of high rainfall can be explained by the effect of high rainfall on river levels. ambient temperature was also positively associated with the number of non-cholera diarrhoea cases, particularly in those individuals at a lower socio-economic and sanitation status.
Where do cyclones preferentially generate, propagate and dissipate?
storm tracks are regions within which cyclones preferentially generate, propagate and dissipate
Why do cyclones exist?
cyclones exist due to baroclinic instability
What is the maximum Eady growth rate?
a commonly used measure of baroclinicity (when the gradient of pressure and the gradient of density are not aligned) is the maximum eady growth rate
storm tracks are regions within which cyclones preferentially generate, propagate and dissipate, and where energy and momentum transport are largest in mid-latitudes. fundamentally, cyclones exist due to baroclinic instability, a fluid dynamical instability characteristic of rotating, stratified fluids17. baroclinic instability requires a horizontal temperature gradient, created by differential solar heating that makes the equator warmer than the poles, and planetary rotation. baroclinic instability converts potential energy stored in a longitudinal average of such a fluid into the kinetic energy of growing longitudinally dependent perturbations, that is, trains of cyclones and anticyclones or eddies3,15. our understanding of the processes generating cyclones and storm tracks is encapsulated in a hierarchy of models with increasing physical complexity (box 2). the most complex models are compared with observational products. the important physical concepts underlying baroclinic instability can be conceptualized in the so-called two-layer quasi-geostrophic (qg) model of the atmosphere. this two-layer model idealizes the atmosphere as two incompressible, dry ideal gas layers representing the lower and upper troposphere. the fluid flow is taken to be in hydrostatic (a force balance between gravitational acceleration and vertical pressure gradient) and geostrophic (a force balance between coriolis acceleration and horizontal pressure gradients) balance. instability occurs via the vertical shear in the jet stream, which is connected to the imposed horizontal temperature gradient by thermal wind balance. thermal wind balance is the combined relationship where horizontal temperature gradients balance vertical variations of geostrophic wind in hydrostatic equilibrium. in the lower troposphere, cyclones grow and develop fronts (fig. 3). despite their simplicity, qg theories give a reasonable prediction for the propagation speed and length scale of cyclones. a commonly used measure of baroclinicity (when the gradient of pressure and the gradient of density are not aligned) is the maximum eady growth rate. the eady growth rate is proportional to the equator-to-pole temperature gradient and inversely proportional to the vertical potential temperature gradient. it gives an estimate of the growth rate of baroclinic instability18. for mid-latitude conditions in the troposphere, the most unstable disturbances predicted from this simplified qg model have a wavelength of approximately 4,000 km and a growth rate of 1 d-1, consistent with the observed cyclone climatology. in the upper troposphere, eddies interact with the jet stream, which serves as a wave guide19. the theoretical qg phase velocity of the eddies is midway between the low-layer and upper-layer wind speed20, which is in reasonable agreement with the observation that the surface cyclones move with a speed proportional to the mid-tropospheric wind. eddy activity is transferred eastward21 and upward22 (white arrows with dashed outline in fig. 3). the upward transfer is connected to the westward phase 'tilt-with-height' of individual cyclones. eddies propagate away from regions of surface baroclinicity towards the subtropics and poles, thereby converging eastward
How are climate change trends shown in the sea?
observed trends. sea-level change is a dominant driving force of coastal change as observed in the geologic record of coastal landforms and experienced in historic times
coastal landforms are modified by a variety of dynamic processes with cumulative effects, which exhibit great regional variability. the driving forces that influence the evolution that coasts undergo include the geologic framework and character of the area, relative sealevel change, major tropical and extratropical storms, coastal oceanographic processes (i.e., wind, waves, currents), sediment supply, and effects of human activity altering sediment movement (45). 2.3.1. observed trends. sea-level change is a dominant driving force of coastal change as observed in the geologic record of coastal landforms and experienced in historic times. slr is likely to increase in importance as a hazard for all coastal regions because of predicted acceleration in rise rates and increased risk to vulnerable coastal regions, such as cities, deltas, islands, and low-lying coastal plains. as the global climate continues to warm and ice sheets melt, coasts will become more dynamic,
What fashion is the specification of the lateral boundaries often dealt in?
specification of the lateral boundaries, model domain etc. is often dealt in a more or less pragmatic fashion
Is it a good idea to have boundaries that cut across mountain ranges that generate sharp precipitation features?
boundaries that cut across mountain ranges that generate dynamical phenomena or sharp precipitation features seem to be a bad idea
Why is it a bad idea to have boundaries that cut across mountain ranges that generate dynamical phenomena?
if some key phenomena that have to do with interaction of topography and the large-scale flow are to be captured, the source region of the phenomena needs to be within the domain (or left outside, if it is sufficiently well represented in the driving data
specification of the lateral boundaries, model domain etc. is often dealt in a more or less pragmatic fashion. for a discussion in an nwp context, see ref 17. for example, it makes sense to orient a regional domain so that large-scale flow impinges on it as uniformly as possible. likewise, boundaries that cut across mountain ranges that generate dynamical phenomena or sharp precipitation features seem to be a bad idea. if some key phenomena that have to do with interaction of topography and the large-scale flow are to be captured, the source region of the phenomena needs to be within the domain (or left outside, if it is sufficiently well represented in the driving data). theory and structured experimentation on these issues corroborate pragmatic solutions.18
During what events are in-City sewershed models used to study water supply systems?
when there are expected to be both more frequent floods and more frequent droughts
Why is reducing consumption of the water supply an important adaption to climate change?
because of its ability to increase the resiliency of the existing system
When did  NYCDEP's conservation programs begin to successfully reduce water consumption?
the mid 1980s
in-city sewershed models can be used with inputs from the gcms, perhaps using synthetic hydrology methods, to study the operation of the water supply system at times when there are expected to be both more frequent floods and more frequent droughts. other operational changes may include further efforts to reduce consumption, which itself is an important adaptation to climate change because of its ability to increase the resiliency of the existing system. nycdep's successful conservation programs since the mid 1980s, including a program for universal metering of water use and a change-out program for toilets, decreased consumption in the 1990s by 300 mgd, more than twice
Has the recent changes in the energy restructure affected the regional governance?
we can conclude that the recent restructuring of energy systems radically changes the issues and institutional conditions of urban and regional governance
What has changed in the restructure?
the main tasks of urban and regional policy and the way in which public responsibilities for energy supply are (or should be) exercised
How could changing policies prove problematic?
the problem is that owing to the fundamental transition of energy systems it is impossible to build on approved policy concepts, problem-solving techniques or established institutional solutions
we can conclude that the recent restructuring of energy systems radically changes the issues and institutional conditions of urban and regional governance. in this transformation process the traditional regulatory resources based on public ownership, the public provision of many energy services, and state control over the energy prices and infrastructure investments are eroding. however, the case study exposes that the plausible presumption that the roll-back of these traditional regulatory, operative and financing functions of public authorities is to be equated with a general loss of significance for urban and regional policy or with a discharge of public duties has proven premature and wrong. the empirical finding, substantiated for national and european politics by numerous authors (majone, 1997; heritier, 2002; eberlein and grande, 2005), that privatization and liberalization do not lead to deregulation in terms of rolling back public responsibilities, but frequently require the reform of state institutions and an increase of governmental activities also applies to the urban and regional policy level. what has changed are the main tasks of urban and regional policy and the way in which public responsibilities for energy supply are (or should be) exercised. thus, there are arguments in favour of the reconsideration and redefinition of urban and regional energy policies in order to shape the sustainable development of energy networks. energy policy is increasingly challenged by new requirements like activating new regional investments and project initiatives in cooperation with the utilities, enforcing voluntary and contractual agreements, professionalizing the promotion of ecopreneurs and optimizing the energy management of public buildings. however, the problem is that owing to the fundamental transition of energy systems it is impossible to build on approved policy concepts, problem-solving techniques or established institutional solutions. moreover, the institutional resources to shape a sustainable
Which Presidential administration embraced influence by Planet Earth?
planet earth, which carried the same message and was apparently influential in the first bush administration
Name an organization whose participants have accepted funding from fossil fuel industries.
ice developed a sophisticated print and radio media and set up a science advisory panel which included three climate sceptics, all of whom have received funding from fossil fuel industries (gelbspan, 1997
Name one activity of the GCC.
the gcc commissioned a series of economic studies
planet earth, which carried the same message and was apparently influential in the first bush administration. fossil fuel interests also funded a number of 'astroturf' groups. the information council for the environment (ice) was founded in 199 1, whose purpose, as stated in internal documents, was to 'reposition global warming as theory, not fact7 (ozone action, 1996). ice developed a sophisticated print and radio media and set up a science advisory panel which included three climate sceptics, all of whom have received funding from fossil fuel industries (gelbspan, 1997). industry associations have also engaged in the public debate over the costs of reducing emissions. the gcc commissioned a series of economic studies (montgomery, 1995; wefa group and
What are LAM's intended to?
indeed, lams are intended to downscale low-resolution simulations that contain no small-scale information whatsoever
Why the results may be biased?
our results may thus be biased by the fact that it might be easier for aladin-climate to simulate valid small-scale features when its low-resolution forcing is perfectly consistent with those
What remains the same even if the study is biased?
the results remain the same regarding the sensitivity of the heavy rains to the domain size and the use of the spectral nudging technique: a small domain does not prevent the developpement of intense precipitation in our region of interest, except in the close vicinity of its eastern border, and neither does the spectral nudging
we believe the perfect-model method we adopted for this study was necessary to come to safe conclusions. however, in order to validate our results in a more realistic case, we have also forced 8 aladin-climate with a real t63 (300 km resolution) arpege-climate global experiment, with the same three different configurations. then, we compare them with our arp50 big-brother. indeed, lams are intended to downscale low-resolution simulations that contain no small-scale information whatsoever. yet, in the present framework, even though arp50 emulates a coarse resolution, its large scales developped with the fine-resolution information. our results may thus be biased by the fact that it might be easier for aladin-climate to simulate valid small-scale features when its low-resolution forcing is perfectly consistent with those. and a similar objection may be raised concerning the domain's size. this possible weakness of the present study refers to the question of whether the small scales influence the synoptic circulation or not (see tenet 5 in laprise et al., 2008. it is not the goal of this paper to address this controversial issue. however, we are willing to verify our conclusions in the case of a regular coarse resolution forcing. we do not show here the results but simply jump to the conclusion. although in this case, each aladin-climate experiments may show stronger biases to arp50 regarding extreme precipitation, the results remain the same regarding the sensitivity of the heavy rains to the domain size and the use of the spectral nudging technique: a small domain does not prevent the developpement of intense precipitation in our region of interest, except in the close vicinity of its eastern border, and neither does the spectral nudging.
What is a challenge of addressing vulnerability to environmental extremes?
one of the main challenges in addressing vulnerability to environmental extremes lies in the integration of many different types of information, knowledge and experiences, and in the development of collaborative projects involving scientists, practitioners and policymakers from communities that are, as we have seen, in many ways very distinct
What does the resilience/vulnerability dialogue entail?
resilience is a dominant theme in natural resources management over the timescales relevant to climate change adaptation, while vulnerability has roots in disaster planning at a shorter (and often more local) scale
What are three examples of regions of high interest with regard to understanding the most critical needs for adaptation to climate change?
the sahel, mega-cities in deltas, and polar regions come to mind
one of the main challenges in addressing vulnerability to environmental extremes lies in the integration of many different types of information, knowledge and experiences, and in the development of collaborative projects involving scientists, practitioners and policymakers from communities that are, as we have seen, in many ways very distinct. we propose three experiments: 1 a resilience/vulnerability dialogue. resilience is a dominant theme in natural resources management over the timescales relevant to climate change adaptation, while vulnerability has roots in disaster planning at a shorter (and often more local) scale. placing this dialogue in the context of disaster-climate change adaptation would provide a focus for what might be seen as an overly academic debate. 2 identifying regions of large-scale vulnerability. vulnerability and adaptive capacity are unevenly distributed, both among regions and populations. a relatively small set of regions are of high interest with regard to understanding the most critical needs for adaptation to climate change--the sahel, mega-cities in deltas, and polar regions come to mind. a comparative set of regional studies would seek to integrate vulnerability to present and future hazards, evaluating the potential for unmitigated disaster. the experience should help to sharpen vulnerability assessment protocols and to evaluate adaptation that integrates the present and future risks and opportunities. 3 meta analysis of vulnerability. case studies of vulnerability should be evaluated using a formal methodology to identify common and unique characteristics and effective interventions. by including present risks and future climate change, it may be possible to disentangle the relative importance of predictions of future climate change. a framework based on the value of information would be essential. each of these experiments is under way to a greater or lesser extent. often relatively small groups are involved, sometimes on the margins of other assessments. a concerted effort, particularly to engage new researchers and sustain prolonged dialogues with stakeholders, is warranted.
What does the recent article study suggest?
recent studies suggest that the reduced solubility due to deep ocean warming can contribute to atmospheric co2 rise, with 12 ppmv (parts per million by volume) increase of atmospheric co2
Does the early warming of the depths of the Pacific Ocean occur until?
the early warming of deep pacific ocean proceeds through the last deglaciation as the response to continuous glacial meltwater discharges
Does simulated heating vary according to?
the simulated warming of the deep ocean varies with basins during the last deglaciation, with the pacific and indian ocean warming by up to 4 oc and the atlantic and arctic basin warming by up to 7 degree
the early warming of deep pacific ocean proceeds through the last deglaciation as the response to continuous glacial meltwater discharges. at 2500m of eastern tropical pacific, our transient simulation produces ~2 oc deep ocean warming, which is consistent with mg/caderived ocean temperature reconstruction at this location (fig. 4b). the simulated warming of the deep ocean varies with basins during the last deglaciation, with the pacific and indian ocean warming by up to 4 oc and the atlantic and arctic basin warming by up to 7 degree (fig. s3). recent studies suggest that the reduced solubility due to deep ocean warming can contribute to atmospheric co2 rise, with 12 ppmv (parts per million by volume) increase of atmospheric co2
What are the SS concentrations in the lagoon effluent?
the ss concentrations in the lagoon effluent would be in the range of 50 to 140 mg/l
How much BOD does 1mg/L of SS produce?
each 1 mg/l of ss produces a particulate bod between 0.3 and 0.4 mg/l
What are usual SS values in the final effluent?
50 to 100 mg
as a result, the ss concentrations in the lagoon effluent would be in the range of 50 to 140 mg/l. however, the outlet zone of the lagoon may be left without aerators, in order to improve the settling conditions and, therefore, the effluent quality. usual ss values in the final effluent may then be in the approximate range of: ss effluent: 50 to 100 mg l facultative aerated lagoons 557 once the ss concentration in the effluent has been estimated, the calculation of the expected value for the effluent particulate bod can be undertaken, using the following relationship: bodpart 0 3 to 0 4 mgbod5/ mgss thus, each 1 mg/l of ss produces a particulate bod between 0.3 and 0.4 mg/l. knowing the total concentration of effluent ss, the particulate effluent bod is readily estimated.
what farmers are doing to ensure that sensitive and critical growth stages do not coincide with very adverse weather conditions in the season?
farmers are using crop management practices that include use of irrigation, water and soil conservation techniques and varying planting and harvesting dates to ensure that critical, sensitive growth stages do not coincide with very harsh climatic conditions in the season
Can these strategies be used to change the length of the growing season?
these strategies can also be used to modify length of the growing season; for instance irrigation and water conservation techniques are an important source of additional water that can be used to lengthen the growing period of crops
is it safe for a farmer to take independent climate adaptation measures?
it is important to note that these adaptation measures should not be taken as independent strategies but should be used in a complementary way
farmers are using crop management practices that include use of irrigation, water and soil conservation techniques and varying planting and harvesting dates to ensure that critical, sensitive growth stages do not coincide with very harsh climatic conditions in the season. these strategies can also be used to modify length of the growing season; for instance irrigation and water conservation techniques are an important source of additional water that can be used to lengthen the growing period of crops. it is important to note that these adaptation measures should not be taken as independent strategies but should be used in a complementary way. for instance the use of irrigation technologies needs to be accompanied by other good crop management practices such as use of crops with better use of water; use of efficient irrigation systems, growing crops that require less water and using improved irrigation water use practices. although farmers reported to be using these adaptation measures in response to changes in climate, we note that these actions might be profit-driven rather than responses to changes in climate. however, for the purpose of this study we assume that farmers are using these measures as a response to climate change. this assumption is based on questions about farmer perceptions on climate change and the actions they are taking to reduce the impacts of climate change on agricultural production. we however, acknowledge that to properly answer the question of whether farmers are minimizing losses due to climate change or are maximizing profits subject to markets and other socioeconomic constraints, a structural model would be required. this is not the scope of this paper and is an area that can further be explored.
DId the egg laying rate increase or decrease with rising mean ambient temperatures?
egg-laying rate, irrespective of site aspect, increased with rising mean ambient temperatures, although the relationship was weak
Was there a relationship between sward composition surrounding the site of oviposition and mean daily ambient temperature?
no relationship was found between sward composition surrounding the site of oviposition and mean daily ambient temperature
Was there a difference in the way females utilized the mesohabitat available to them on the two sites?
there was no difference in the way females utilized the mesohabitat available to them on the two sites
the mean number of eggs laid per fixed quadrat per day was 17*47 on the south-facing site, compared with just 9*71 per quadrat per day on the north-facing site. the daily mean egg-laying rate of h. comma females within the fixed quadrats, described by the number of eggs laid per female per hour, was significantly greater on the south-facing site than on the north-facing site (day paired t -test: t - 3*19, d.f. 6, p 0*05; fig. 4b). there was no difference in the way females utilized the mesohabitat available to them on the two sites. eggs were laid in a variety of microhabitats within the quadrat, and no relationship was found between sward composition surrounding the site of oviposition and mean daily ambient temperature. egg-laying rate, irrespective of site aspect, increased with rising mean ambient temperatures, although the relationship was weak f 2*98, r2 0*06, p 0*09; fig. 4c).
What gives the variance of eh?
we assume that the variance of eh is given by: expenditure, xhrepresents a bundle of observable household characteristics (household size, location, educational attainment of the household head, etc.) and climatic shocks (droughts, floods and hailstorms), b is a vector of parameters, and eh is a mean -zero disturbance term
Where the dependent and independent variables are described?
table 6
What the equations allow us to estimate?
the above equations allow us to estimate the probability that a household with characteristics xh will be poor (i.e., the household's vulnerability level
we assume that the variance of eh is given by: expenditure, xhrepresents a bundle of observable household characteristics (household size, location, educational attainment of the household head, etc.) and climatic shocks (droughts, floods and hailstorms), b is a vector of parameters, and eh is a mean -zero disturbance term. the dependent and independent variables are described in table 6. (2) (2) where b and th are parameter estimates obtained from the three -step feasible generalized least squares (fgls) procedure suggested by amemiya (1977). using the estimates b and th, the expected log of consumption and the variance of log consumption for each household h are, respectively, estimated as: (3) (3) (4) (4) by assuming that consumption is log-normally distributed (i.e. that lnch is normally distributed), the above equations allow us to estimate the probability that a household with characteristics xh will be poor (i.e., the household's vulnerability level). if
What caused the tree line to shift upslope?
the warming of the last 100 years has caused the treeline to shift upslope
What causes the trembling of aspen in western Canada?
the distribution of trembling aspen in western canada is also largely controlled by moisture conditions
What is the general hypothesis of why trees migrate northward?
it is generally hypothesized that trees will migrate northward and to higher altitudes as the climate warms
it is generally hypothesized that trees will migrate northward and to higher altitudes as the climate warms. the warming of the last 100 years has caused the treeline to shift upslope in the central canadian rockies.(12)temperature, however, is not the sole control on species distribution, and temperature changes cannot be considered in isolation. other factors, including soil characteristics, nutrient availability and disturbance regimes, may prove to be more important than temperature in controlling future ecosystem dynamics. the southern limit of the boreal forest, for example, appears to be influenced more by interspecies competition(38)and moisture conditions(39)than by temperature tolerance. the distribution of trembling aspen in western canada is also largely controlled by moisture conditions.(40)
What will the performance-based probabilistic multimodal C.C.S reflect ?
performance-based probabilistic multimodel climate change scenarios (completed) develop probabilistic multi-model scenarios that will reflect the most reasonable estimates of changes in regional climate and its variability according to the available modeling and observational evidence
What does the predictability of Onset and Character of Warm Season Rains in South America show ?
examine higher order rainfall statistics from a gridpoint regional climate model nested in gcm historical ensemble integrations
project title objective partners development of global model systems for prediction and predictability studies improve predictive skill and understanding of predictability limits by improving some aspect of global models, including numerics, physics, or boundary conditions. performance-based probabilistic multimodel climate change scenarios (completed) develop probabilistic multi-model scenarios that will reflect the most reasonable estimates of changes in regional climate and its variability according to the available modeling and observational evidence. national science foundation the predictability of onset and character of warm season rains in south america using a nested modeling system (completed) examine higher order rainfall statistics from a gridpoint regional climate model nested in gcm historical ensemble integrations. noaa/climate diagnostics center university of lund, sweden data assimilation for coupled predictability and prediction (completed) improve understanding of how data assimilation impacts coupled model forecasts. noaa applied research center/odasi geophysical fluid dynamics laboratory cola nasa's seasonal to interannual prediction project project title objective partners malaria early warning system (mews) project domain activities in support of iripaho/who collaborating center on early warning systems for malaria and other climate-sensitive diseases (i) provide the evidence of the role of climate in disease dynamics and assess the value of such evidence to improving epidemic prevention and control; and (ii) provide tools and training in order to develop the capacity of disease control staff to use the information created in improving 'real world' decisions. paho/who iri data library faciliate data exchange by providing a www data library that provides multi-disciplinary access to data needed to study short-term climate change and its impact. thematic real-time environmental data distributed services opendap distributed ocean data sets
What allows decision makers to develop confidence?
stable funding promotes long-term stability and trust by allowing researchers to focus on user needs over long periods of time and allowing decision makers to develop confidence that researchers will be around awhile to work with them
What has been indicated by the Reports from several RISAs?
reports from several risas consistently indicate the importance of selecting projects that are supportable within the scope of what can be funded within a single budget cycle--especially in a climate of diminishing resources (e.g., the pacific risa reported that it focuses mostly on assessment of shared learning and joint problem solving with users because of funding limitations [for a review of all these self-assessments, see mcnie et al. (2007
What is the balance was chosen?
this balance also was chosen because it was identified through dialogue with users as a high-priority project for its initial pacific islands climate assessment (mcnie et al. 2007). likewise, the western water assessment (wwa) and california applications
stable funding promotes long-term stability and trust by allowing researchers to focus on user needs over long periods of time and allowing decision makers to develop confidence that researchers will be around awhile to work with them. reports from several risas consistently indicate the importance of selecting projects that are supportable within the scope of what can be funded within a single budget cycle--especially in a climate of diminishing resources (e.g., the pacific risa reported that it focuses mostly on assessment of shared learning and joint problem solving with users because of funding limitations [for a review of all these self-assessments, see mcnie et al. (2007)]. this balance also was chosen because it was identified through dialogue with users as a high-priority project for its initial pacific islands climate assessment (mcnie et al. 2007). likewise, the western water assessment (wwa) and california applications
What makes forecasting the direction and magnitude of change in toxic marine HABs challenging?
limited understanding of the interactions among climate and non-climate stressors and, in some cases, limitations in the design of experiments for investigating decadalor century-scale trends in phytoplankton communities, makes forecasting the direction and magnitude of change in toxic marine habs challenging
What could potentially be increasingly favorable with climate change?
conditions for the growth of dinoflagellates--the algal group containing numerous toxic species--could potentially be increasingly favorable with climate change
Why could Conditions for the growth of dinoflagellates potentially be increasingly favorable with climate change?
conditions for the growth of dinoflagellates--the algal group containing numerous toxic species--could potentially be increasingly favorable with climate change because these species possess certain physiological characteristics that allow them to take advantage of climatically-driven changes in the structure of the ocean
limited understanding of the interactions among climate and non-climate stressors and, in some cases, limitations in the design of experiments for investigating decadalor century-scale trends in phytoplankton communities, makes forecasting the direction and magnitude of change in toxic marine habs challenging.189, 191 still, changes to the community composition of marine microalgae, including harmful species, will occur.188, 194 conditions for the growth of dinoflagellates--the algal group containing numerous toxic species--could potentially be increasingly favorable with climate change because these species possess certain physiological characteristics that allow them to take advantage of climatically-driven changes in the structure of the ocean (for example, stronger vertical stratification and reduced turbulence).190, 193, 195, 196, 197
What examples of existing commitments did Dennison say that new policies and programmes need to be coherent with?
all policies and programmes also need to be coherent with existing commitments - such as the convention on the elimination of all forms of discrimination against women (cedaw
What group states that "a gender perspective needs to be mainstreamed throughout all UN activities and negotiations?"
furthermore, the 1995 un beijing platform for action states that a gender perspective needs to be mainstreamed throughout all un activities and negotiations (dennison 2003
What are the stages of the process of international climate change response that Dennison lists?
at all stages of the process, from scientific research, through analysis, agenda formation, negotiation and decision-making, regime implementation, and finally in further development and evaluation
"the international climate change process will be unable to achieve truly global legitimacy or relevance until it adopts the principles of gender equity at all stages of the process, from scientific research, through analysis, agenda formation, negotiation and decision-making, regime implementation, and finally in further development and evaluation." (dennison 2003) gender-sensitive priorities and processes need to be mainstreamed at all levels of negotiations and decision-making around climate change mitigation and adaptation. it is in the remit of all governments who are part of international negotiations on climate change to ensure that gender concerns are reflected in policies and related programming. all policies and programmes also need to be coherent with existing commitments - such as the convention on the elimination of all forms of discrimination against women (cedaw). furthermore, the 1995 un beijing platform for action states that a gender perspective needs to be mainstreamed throughout all un activities and negotiations (dennison 2003). as contributions to the recent international united nations
Why was the added region thought to be a source?
this region is thought to be a source due to its aridity and lack of vegetation
What did other source regions appear to be roughly consistent with?
other source regions appear to be roughly consistent with the geologic record
What does the model appear to match in the region without a glaciogenic source?
our model appears to match available sediment records in this region without a glaciogenic source
wyoming and colorado, but this source is not large enough to match available observations, so we add in an additional source in this region, which we include in the tuning described below. this region is thought to be a source due to its aridity and lack of vegetation so the ccsm3/biome3 predicted dust source area is not consistent with available observations roberts et al. 2003; aleinikoff et al. 1999]. these source regions are shown in figure 9b. other source regions appear to be roughly consistent with the geologic record. although there are large areas of loess deposits in china dated to this time period, it is not clear whether these are due to aridity and/ or glaciogenic sources sun 2002a, 2002b]. our model appears to match available sediment records in this region without a glaciogenic source. note that because of our inability to model glaciogenic sources, we are using the data to match the model to the data, and thus inferring the strength of these sources from available data. we vary the magnitude of the 8 sources (7 described above and one from base-co2-lgm) in order to achieve the best fit with the data shown in figure 8b using two different cost functions, shown below.
Are Holocene relcits found in small or large areas?
s a consequence, holocene relicts can often be found in relatively small areas that buffer against limited climatic change
Where do climate relicts occur?
according to our definition, climate relicts occur in areas with climatic conditions that have existed for an extended period and are currently rare within their surroundings ("relict climates," sensu dobrowski 2011; see also ohlem"uller et al. 2008
What are two possible, nonexclusive environmental scenarios that enable the long-term persistence of populations
there are two possible, nonexclusive environmental scenarios that enable the long-term persistence of populations approximately in situ figure 1 ): a climatic variation can be low, or b the existing climatic variation can be buffered in a heterogeneous landscape that contains patchy habitats and steep microclimatic gradients
there are two possible, nonexclusive environmental scenarios that enable the long-term persistence of populations approximately in situ figure 1 ): a climatic variation can be low, or b the existing climatic variation can be buffered in a heterogeneous landscape that contains patchy habitats and steep microclimatic gradients. the relevance of each scenario depends on the spatial and temporal scales of observation, because the magnitude of climatic changes experienced by populations increases as the period of observation increases. as a consequence, holocene relicts can often be found in relatively small areas that buffer against limited climatic changes (e.g., mires or algific talus slopes) (nekola 1999, spitzer danks 2006), whereas pre-lgm relicts are almost exclusively found in heterogeneous landscapes that permit population persistence under very different regional climates through altitudinal shifts or changes in slope orientation (hampe petit 2005). finally, those regions of the world whose climatic conditions combine relative stability through time with heterogeneity in space tend to harbor not only disproportionately large concentrations of climate relicts, but also greater concentrations of endemic species (fjeldsa@ lovett 1997, qian ricklefs 2000, denk et al. 2001, rodr'iguez-s'anchez et al. 2008). such areas have been hypothesized to represent conservation hot spots but also critical areas for the generation of biodiversity (fjeldsa@ lovett 1997, hampe petit 2005, moore donoghue 2007, jansson davies 2008). according to our definition, climate relicts occur in areas with climatic conditions that have existed for an extended period and are currently rare within their surroundings ("relict climates," sensu dobrowski 2011; see also ohlem"uller et al. 2008). this combination of characteristics arises from an important quality that determines the long-term suitability of refugia: their ability to decouple local climate trends from those occurring at regional scale. such a decoupling
Which electronic databases were used to conduct the literature search?
a literature search was conducted in august 2010, using the electronic databases pubmed, scopus, sciencedirect, proquest, and web of science
How many studies that fulfilled the inclusion criteria were reviewed?
the review included 14 studies that fulfilled the inclusion criteria
What did most projections show in relation to heat-related mortality?
most projections showed that climate change would result in a substantial increase in heat-related mortality
background: heat-related mortality is a matter of great public health concern, especially in the light of climate change. although many studies have found associations between high temperatures and mortality, more research is needed to project the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality. objectives: we conducted a systematic review of research and methods for projecting future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios. data sources and extraction: a literature search was conducted in august 2010, using the electronic databases pubmed, scopus, sciencedirect, proquest, and web of science. the search was limited to peer-reviewed journal articles published in english up to 2010. data synthesis: the review included 14 studies that fulfilled the inclusion criteria. most projections showed that climate change would result in a substantial increase in heat-related mortality. projecting heat-related mortality requires understanding of the historical temperature-mortality relationships, and consideration of the future changes in climate, population and acclimatization. further research is needed to provide a stronger theoretical framework for projections, including a better understanding of socio-economic development, adaptation strategies, land-use patterns, air pollution and mortality displacement. conclusions: scenario-based projection research will meaningfully contribute to assessing and managing the potential impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality.
what were the first groups of animals to be extinguished by climate change?
range-restricted species, particularly polar and mountaintop species, show severe range contractions and have been the first groups in which entire species have gone extinct due to recent climate change
what were the species most affected negatively by climate change?
tropical coral reefs and amphibians have been most negatively affected
what modulates the local effects of climate change?
observed genetic shifts modulate local effects of climate change
ecological changes in the phenology and distribution of plants and animals are occurring in all well-studied marine, freshwater, and terrestrial groups. these observed changes are heavily biased in the directions predicted from global warming and have been linked to local or regional climate change through correlations between climate and biological variation, field and laboratory experiments, and physiological research. range-restricted species, particularly polar and mountaintop species, show severe range contractions and have been the first groups in which entire species have gone extinct due to recent climate change. tropical coral reefs and amphibians have been most negatively affected. predator-prey and plant-insect interactions have been disrupted when interacting species have responded differently to warming. evolutionary adaptations to warmer conditions have occurred in the interiors of species' ranges, and resource use and dispersal have evolved rapidly at expanding range margins. observed genetic shifts modulate local effects of climate change, but there is little evidence that they will mitigate negative effects at the species level.
How were the likely costs of mitigation in a world where behavioural change is limited assesed?
in order to assess the likely costs of mitigation in a world where behavioural change is limited - a very conservative assumption in the sense that it underestimates flexibility and thus overestimates cost - a probabilistic projection of the evolution of low-carbon technologies and of fossil-fuel prices was used (anderson, 2006), a 'bottom-up' approach
What were some of the results of the study?
this study gave results in a range similar to the more complex behavioural modelling exercises. it showed that, under a feasible technology mix,12 replacing carbonintensive energy generation and transportation with low-carbon technologies to stabilise at 550 ppm co2e could be attained at a mean cost of approximately 1% of gdp by mid-century
How did this approach differ from the behavioural models?
unlike the behavioural models, this approach offered a very simple and transparent way of making a first approximation of the likely cost of one route to stabilisation
second, we also commissioned a simple and transparent cost-assessment exercise. in order to assess the likely costs of mitigation in a world where behavioural change is limited - a very conservative assumption in the sense that it underestimates flexibility and thus overestimates cost - a probabilistic projection of the evolution of low-carbon technologies and of fossil-fuel prices was used (anderson, 2006), a 'bottom-up' approach. this study gave results in a range similar to the more complex behavioural modelling exercises. it showed that, under a feasible technology mix,12 replacing carbonintensive energy generation and transportation with low-carbon technologies to stabilise at 550 ppm co2e could be attained at a mean cost of approximately 1% of gdp by mid-century. the uncertainty around this mean amounted again to around +/-3 percentage points of gdp, reflecting in particular uncertainty about technological innovation and the evolution of fossil-fuel costs. unlike the behavioural models, this approach offered a very simple and transparent way of making a first approximation of the likely cost of one route to stabilisation. for example, let's take the assumptions made about learning curves (i.e., the rate at which technology costs fall with increasing scale of deployment). it is easy to see from anderson (2006) that the assumptions about learning are conservative by historical standards.
Which science theme has been specifically targeted for CMIP6 is a "ScenarioMIP"?
another new concept proposed for cmip6 is a "scenariomip" that specifically targets the science theme: how can we assess future climate changes given climate variability, climate predictability, and uncertainties in scenarios
What research topics have been identified which require cooperation with integrated assessment and impactsadaptation- vulnerability researchers?
within this science focus, a number of research topics have been identified that require cooperation with integrated assessment and impactsadaptation- vulnerability researchers. these topics include an overshoot scenario as noted above, emissions of shortlived climate forcers and air quality/ climate interactions, land use and land cover change, integrated analysis of impacts and responses, and climate risk related to variability estimates
What are 2 steps that all participating modeling groups will follow for the scenarios?
all participating modeling groups would run some common simulations (e.g., a pair of new scenarios, one nonmitigation and one with mitigation of greenhouse gases and other human climate change drivers) to provide a basis for research on impacts and damages avoided through mitigation and adaptation. then, if modeling groups elected to run more scenarios, they could participate in a matrix of scenario experiments
another new concept proposed for cmip6 is a "scenariomip" that specifically targets the science theme: how can we assess future climate changes given climate variability, climate predictability, and uncertainties in scenarios? within this science focus, a number of research topics have been identified that require cooperation with integrated assessment and impactsadaptation- vulnerability researchers. these topics include an overshoot scenario as noted above, emissions of shortlived climate forcers and air quality/ climate interactions, land use and land cover change, integrated analysis of impacts and responses, and climate risk related to variability estimates. all participating modeling groups would run some common simulations (e.g., a pair of new scenarios, one nonmitigation and one with mitigation of greenhouse gases and other human climate change drivers) to provide a basis for research on impacts and damages avoided through mitigation and adaptation. then, if modeling groups elected to run more scenarios, they could participate in a matrix of scenario experiments. an experiment design strategy is being explored to test the feasibility of assigning a subset of models to scenarios in such a way as to sample a variety of climate model characteristics (e.g., climate sensitivity, model performance, and complexity) for each scenario or pair of scenarios in the matrix.
how many countries in CCP campaign has developed several policies?
148 cities in the ccp campaign have also developed several policies to help lower these barriers for their 149 constituencies
how many guidebooks were used for curriculum?
many cities have enacted varying education campaigns, from outreach to curriculum to 150 guidebooks, that can minimize information and uncertainty barriers (for example, benzschawel, 2002; 151
which is biased against projects?
local governments 146 can be biased against projects with a long payback period
solar, 2001; sten and anderson, 2000 ), revolving loan funds, group purchasing, negotiating 0% loans 145 (examples of previous three in iclei, 2000 ), grants and performance contracting. local governments 146 can be biased against projects with a long payback period. there are, however, some factors that can 147 overcome this barrier, which are discussed below. 148 cities in the ccp campaign have also developed several policies to help lower these barriers for their 149 constituencies. many cities have enacted varying education campaigns, from outreach to curriculum to 150 guidebooks, that can minimize information and uncertainty barriers (for example, benzschawel, 2002; 151
How is the realism of these 4 variables assessed?
by comparing simulations with observed data across at both seasonal and interannual timescales
What 4 climate variables are selected?
rainfall which represents the only water input for rainfed crop, (ii) temperature which acts to modulate the duration of crop growth cycles, (iii) solar radiation which limits biomass and crop yields, and (iv) the crop potential evapotranspiration
What does the approach aim at correcting?
the cumulative distribution function (cdf
promes model: universidad de castilla-la mancha (uclm). we adopt an agronomic point of view to assess the accuracy of these regional configurations. four climate variables are selected for their crucial role on crop production: (i) rainfall which represents the only water input for rainfed crop, (ii) temperature which acts to modulate the duration of crop growth cycles, (iii) solar radiation which limits biomass and crop yields, and (iv) the crop potential evapotranspiration (pet) referring to the evaporating demand from crops under optimal conditions. the realism of these four variables in the regional configurations is assessed by comparing simulations with observed data across at both seasonal and interannual timescales. for these comparisons, we perform a bilinear interpolation of each gridded simulation to obtain interpolated values at each of the 12 synoptic stations. daily minimum and maximum air temperature, mean wind speed, mean air relative humidity and solar radiation at 2 m are used to compute pet from penman-monteith equation (allen et al 1998 ). these interpolated simulated climate variables are then used to drive a crop model. 2.3. correcting regional climate biases in order to correct the statistical distributions of the rcm simulations and to make them as close as possible to those of the observations, the cumulative distribution functiontransform (cdf-t) method (michelangeli et al 2009 has been applied. this type of approach, initially developed in a statistical downscaling context, aims at correcting the cumulative distribution function (cdf)
what did David Nettleship do?
david nettleship originally designed and supervised biological work at prince leopold island and organized follow-up work in 1988
who has collaborated in the study over the years?
especially birgit braune, barbara dodge, garry donaldson, rod forbes, uli steiner, ilya storm, stu tingley and kerry woo
who financially supported the project?
the financial support of environment canada - canadian wildlife service and the northern ecosystem initiative, natural sciences and engineering research council of canada, and northern studies trust programme
david nettleship originally designed and supervised biological work at prince leopold island and organized follow-up work in 1988. we are most grateful to all those who assisted with the study over the years, especially birgit braune, barbara dodge, garry donaldson, rod forbes, uli steiner, ilya storm, stu tingley and kerry woo. we thank christine eberl for being our southern agent, and myra robertson for handling permits. none of this work would have been possible without the logistic support of the polar continental shelf project of natural resources canada and the nunavut research institute, as well as the financial support of environment canada - canadian wildlife service and the northern ecosystem initiative, natural sciences and engineering research council of canada, and northern studies trust programme. the manuscript benefited from comments by christophe barbraud, charles francis and mark mallory.
What determine the theories of Yeh and KIrtman?
2004) and yeh and kirtman (2004, 2005). clearly, there is a need to continue scrutinizing the existing instrumental and paleoproxy datasets for further evidence of a possible relationship between variations in enso and changes in the mean state. while the search for this relationship continues, there is considerable interest in developing a thorough understanding of the role of the tropical ocean in interdecadal or longer-term fluctuations of the coupled mean state, as these changes can have an impact on global climate, even if they are not directly linked to enso. in the following section, we review some of the key aspects concerning the role of the ocean in low-frequency changes of the tropical mean state
parallel to the theoretical debate on whether there is a linkage between changes in enso statistics and changes in mean state, there is a lack of agreement from observational analyses on this issue. some studies report findings that support the modeling and theoretical results, while others do not. for example, urban et al. (2000) presented an analysis based on a 155-yr enso reconstruction from a central tropical pacific coral and found that there is a tendency for enso frequency to shift from a shorter period (less than 3 yr) to a longer period as the mean state becomes warmer from the mid-late nineteenth century to the present. solow and huppert (2003), on the other hand, performed a test on the evolutionary spectral analysis of a century-long sea level pressure time series at darwin, as well as the nino-3 sst time series, and found that local variations in enso over the past century are not inconsistent with overall stationarity. cobb et al. (2003) pieced together a fossil-coral record over the past 1100 yr and found no consistent evidence that variations in enso statistics are linked to changes in mean climate conditions in the tropical pacific. some of the inconsistencies may reflect the fact that the dominant fluctuation patterns at decadal or longer time scales are different from those associated with the low-frequency modulation of enso, as noted recently by deser et al. (2004) and yeh and kirtman (2004, 2005). clearly, there is a need to continue scrutinizing the existing instrumental and paleoproxy datasets for further evidence of a possible relationship between variations in enso and changes in the mean state. while the search for this relationship continues, there is considerable interest in developing a thorough understanding of the role of the tropical ocean in interdecadal or longer-term fluctuations of the coupled mean state, as these changes can have an impact on global climate, even if they are not directly linked to enso. in the following section, we review some of the key aspects concerning the role of the ocean in low-frequency changes of the tropical mean state.
What are the characteristics of policy analysis?
in this case, one algorithm might be to 1) order the available forcing scenarios in the training set by their similarity to the prediction scenario; 2) fit the emulator using first only the nearest training scenario, then the two nearest, and so on; and 3) choose the emulator with the smallest training set that offers stable parameter estimations as measured by the width of the 95% confidence bands for the mean emulator (e.g., figs. 3e,f
Define the concept of unity?
further research would be needed to actually apply this approach in the context of integrated assessments over many possible scenarios, both to define the notion of similarity and to automate implementation. in this work we have focused simply on demonstrating that, in some circumstances, emulation requires only a limited training set of a few scenarios and realizations
Short note of applications such as policy analysis or sample interpolation?
this finding supports the utility of statistical emulation based on modest training sets for uses such as policy analysis or model intercomparison
in this case, one algorithm might be to 1) order the available forcing scenarios in the training set by their similarity to the prediction scenario; 2) fit the emulator using first only the nearest training scenario, then the two nearest, and so on; and 3) choose the emulator with the smallest training set that offers stable parameter estimations as measured by the width of the 95% confidence bands for the mean emulator (e.g., figs. 3e,f). further research would be needed to actually apply this approach in the context of integrated assessments over many possible scenarios, both to define the notion of similarity and to automate implementation. in this work we have focused simply on demonstrating that, in some circumstances, emulation requires only a limited training set of a few scenarios and realizations. this finding supports the utility of statistical emulation based on modest training sets for uses such as policy analysis or model intercomparison.
What do studies rely heavily on for assessing school climate?
studies rely heavily on survey data for assessing school climate
What can qualitative methods reveal?
while quantitative methods are useful in collecting information from a large sample, qualitative methods can reveal more in-depth information, including the processes, influences, and nuances of school climate
Do many studies examine school climate at multiple time points across school years?
in addition, although school climate is a dynamic construct, relatively few studies examine school climate at multiple time points across school years
studies rely heavily on survey data for assessing school climate. while quantitative methods are useful in collecting information from a large sample, qualitative methods can reveal more in-depth information, including the processes, influences, and nuances of school climate. school climate consists of the collective perspective of all individuals related to the school, but studies often present school climate based exclusively on the perspectives of students. in addition, although school climate is a dynamic construct, relatively few studies examine school climate at multiple time points across school years. finally, despite researchers endeavoring to validate and create reliable school climate measures, very few existing school climate survey measures include strong psychometric properties (zullig et al. 2010 ). a recent review of school climate measures by the american institutes for research (air) (clifford et al. 2012 found only 13 publicly accessible school climate surveys with solid reliability and validity. the extent of psychometric support for most school climate measures is limited; a
What does climate change refer to?
climate changes refers to a change in the state of the climate that can be identified by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties and that persists for an extended period, typically decade or more
How is the temperature of the Earth determined?
the temperature of the earth is determined by the balance between the incoming solar radiation and the outgoing terrestrial radiation energy
What does Aerts Droogers say "changes in climate average and the changes in frequency" will have an impact on?
changes in climate average and the changes in frequency and intensity of extreme weather events are likely to have major impact on natural and human systems (aerts droogers, 2004
climate changes refers to a change in the state of the climate that can be identified by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties and that persists for an extended period, typically decade or more. climate change may be due to internal processes and /or external forcings. some external influences, such as changes in solar radiation and volcanism, occur naturally and contribute to the natural variability of the climate system. other external changes, such as the change in the composition of the atmosphere that began with the industrial revolution, are the result of human activity. the temperature of the earth is determined by the balance between the incoming solar radiation and the outgoing terrestrial radiation energy. the energy coming in from the sun can pass through atmosphere and therefore heats the surface of the earth. but the radiation emitted from the surface of the earth is partly absorbed by some gases in the atmosphere, and some of it re-emitted downwards. the effect of this is to warm the surface of the earth and the lower part of the atmosphere. without this natural greenhouse effect, the temperature of the earth would be about 30oc cooler than it is, and it would not be habitable. however, this important function of the atmosphere is being threatened by the rapidly increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases well above the natural level while also new greenhouse gases such as cfcs and the cfc replacement is added to the atmosphere as a result of human activities (for example, co2 from fossil-fuel burning). this will add further warming which could threaten sustainability of the earth (jenkins, 2005). nowadays there is strong scientific evidence that indicates the average temperature of the earth's surface is increasing due to greenhouse gas emissions. for instance, the average global temperature has increased by about 0.6oc since the late 19th century. also the latest ipcc (intergovernmental panel on climate change) scenarios project temperature rises of 1.4-5.8oc, and sea level rises of 9-99 cm by 2100 (houghton, 2001). warming and precipitation are expected to vary considerably from region to region. changes in climate average and the changes in frequency and intensity of extreme weather events are likely to have major impact on natural and human systems (aerts droogers, 2004). with respect to hydrology, climate change can cause significant impacts on water resources by resulting changes in the hydrological cycle. for instance, the changes on temperature and precipitation can have a direct consequence on the quantity of evapotranspiration and on both quality and quantity of the runoff component. consequently, the spatial and temporal availability of water resource, or in general the water balance, can be significantly affected which in turn affects agriculture, industry and urban development.
What is one of the important roles of policy research in any policy setting?
one of the important roles of policy research in any policy settingistoaskand answer,''canthepolicy workwithrespect to its stated objectives
How likely is the success of the Kyoto Protocol?
in the case of climate change, a growing consensus concludes that, irrespective of the importance of the problem or logic of the solution, the kyoto protocol is highly unlikely to succeed according to its own goals
Opponents argue what?
opponents argue that it is a dead end
one of the important roles of policy research in any policy settingistoaskand answer,''canthepolicy workwithrespect to its stated objectives?'' in the case of climate change, a growing consensus concludes that, irrespective of the importance of the problem or logic of the solution, the kyoto protocol is highly unlikely to succeed according to its own goals. proponents of the kyoto protocol argue that it is just the first step to more ambitious mitigation policies. opponents argue that it is a dead end. in either case, these differing views agree that considerable additional action would be needed beyond to kyoto protocol to achieve the goals of the fccc. the difficulties implementing the kyoto protocol highlight the significant political challenges facing full implementationofthefccc.today the kyoto protocolis increasingly discussed in terms of its significance for international relations and diplomacy (e.g., between the us and europe) than for its ability to address the challenges of climate change.8
Who is Professor Michael McIlroy (Board Chairman)?
although only limited numbers of species will face entirely unsuitable conditions for persistence, others will experience drastic reductions and fragmentation of distributional areas, or extend their distributions, creating new natural communities with unknown properties
Describe the direct effects of climate change?
some workers14have argued that these reorganizations of communities will produce stronger distributional effects than will the direct effects of climate change on species' distributions; in this sense, our models provide null hypotheses of distributional expectations in the absence of strong interaction effects
although only limited numbers of species will face entirely unsuitable conditions for persistence, others will experience drastic reductions and fragmentation of distributional areas, or extend their distributions, creating new natural communities with unknown properties. indeed, some workers14have argued that these reorganizations of communities will produce stronger distributional effects than will the direct effects of climate change on species' distributions; in this sense, our models provide null hypotheses of distributional expectations in the absence of strong interaction effects. more generally, these approaches to modelling distributional change caused by global climate change can be used to produce synthetic models of the combined effects of climate change and other scenarios (for example, species' invasions15), allowing us to address questions of productivity in economically important ecosystems, emerging diseases and other complex challenges16. a
In what ways have disturbances and number of snowfall days been affected in the western Himalaya region?
there is no trend in the annual frequency of western disturbances, yet a decreasing trend in the number of snowfall days during the peak snowfall months (january- march
Which station showed the clearest indication of climate change?
correlation coefficients indicate that climate change was clearer at patseo than at the other three stations
global climate change affects the regional climate which, in turn, has a large impact on water resources, agriculture and the economy of the region. for this reason, understanding the factors responsible for climate change over a region has been at the forefront of research in recent years. data from the western himalaya show that seasonal mean, maximum and minimum temperatures have increased by  2, 2.8 and 1 8 c, respectively. seasonal maximum and minimum temperatures show an increasing trend over three mountain ranges of the western himalaya and a decreasing trend over one range (karakoram). seasonal precipitation shows a decreasing trend over all four ranges. cloud cover also shows a decreasing trend over four stations situated in the four ranges. there is no trend in the annual frequency of western disturbances, yet a decreasing trend in the number of snowfall days during the peak snowfall months (january- march). correlation coefficients indicate that climate change was clearer at patseo than at the other three stations. more long-term observations and regional climate modelling studies are required over the western himalaya in order to establish a robust relationship between global warming and its regional impacts.
What is climate?
observations are fundamental to advancing scientific understanding of climate (doherty et al. 2009; shapiro et al. 2010) and delivering the vetted, timely, and purposeful climate information needed to support decision making in many sectors
What are datasets?
for these purposes, observational datasets in general need to be traceable to quality standards, be readily interpretable and freely available, and cover sufficiently long periods
What is Climate Nature?
and cover sufficiently long periods: for example, the 30 years traditionally used for calculating climate normals (wmo 2011b). transparency in the generation of climate datasets is essential for ensuring the credibility of the climate record (un 2012
observations are fundamental to advancing scientific understanding of climate (doherty et al. 2009; shapiro et al. 2010) and delivering the vetted, timely, and purposeful climate information needed to support decision making in many sectors. observations and monitoring are key elements of the emerging global framework for climate services (wmo 2011a) and more generally support climate research, the assessment of climate change, and the development of policy responses (fig. 1). for these purposes, observational datasets in general need to be traceable to quality standards, be readily interpretable and freely available, and cover sufficiently long periods: for example, the 30 years traditionally used for calculating climate normals (wmo 2011b). transparency in the generation of climate datasets is essential for ensuring the credibility of the climate record (un 2012).
What are capital markets full of?
capital markets are full of distortions related to the role of information
What are two examples of things market rates of return on investments do not account for?
market rates of return on investments are not social rates of return - they generally take no account, for example, of environmental damages or other market distortions
What are two examples of institutional factors affecting the choices governments make about required rates of return on investment?
there are all sorts of institutional factors affecting the choices governments make about required rates of return on investment, including gaming and 'optimism bias' from project sponsors
even within standard, medium-term cost-benefit analysis of marginal changes, it is a mistake to believe that we can know from market observation what those discount rates should be. capital markets are full of distortions related to the role of information. market rates of return on investments are not social rates of return - they generally take no account, for example, of environmental damages or other market distortions. there are all sorts of institutional factors affecting the choices governments make about required rates of return on investment, including gaming and 'optimism bias' from project sponsors. and there is very little market information for investment decisions over 50, 100 or 150 years. in sum, we do not see any markets that can reveal clear answers to the question "how do we, as a generation, value benefits to collective action to protect the climate for generations a hundred or more years from now?" (see hepburn, 2006, and dietz et al ., 2007b, for further discussion). these are not the allocations reflected in market decisions. there is indeed a discussion to be had about how much and how little current market information tells us. yet, like sterner and persson [citation], we conclude that there is no shortcut to conducting a debate about discounting on the basis of first principles, which in turn puts ethics at centre-stage.
What is the heat transference processes in body?
these processes are radiation, conduction, convection, and evaporation at the skin surface and the lungs28
How is the heat occurs in human body?
heat dissipation occurs through k lundgren et al
the human heat exchange with the environment is pictured in fig. 1 below: in addition, acclimatization and hydration status, body posture, clothing permeability and other factors affect this balance33). an initial understanding of how environmental features can affect human heat tolerance may be gained through examination of the processes of heat transference between the body and the macro environment29). these processes are radiation, conduction, convection, and evaporation at the skin surface and the lungs28). humans can maintain normal body (core and skin) temperatures within a wide range of environmental conditions, assuming heat transfer is not impaired. heat dissipation occurs through k lundgren et al.
How do the models of student autonomy and clarity and consistency of school rules fit? fit the data reasonably well
the models for student autonomy and clarity and consistency of school rules also fit the data reasonably well
what did the average growth trajectory reveal? revealed significant levels (ie non-zero)
the average growth trajectory revealed significant (i.e., different from zero) levels of perceptions of student autonomy and clarity and consistency of school rules in the sixth grade
What was determined for each model? were specified to zero
for each model, non-significant pathways were specified to zero
the models for student autonomy and clarity and consistency of school rules also fit the data reasonably well. the average growth trajectory revealed significant (i.e., different from zero) levels of perceptions of student autonomy and clarity and consistency of school rules in the sixth grade. moreover, the average trajectory for the slope indicated that the perceptions of student autonomy as well as those for clarity and consistency of school rules declined over the course of middle school. significant heterogeneity in the initial status and slope of individual trajectories of student autonomy and clarity and consistency of school rules were also found. impact of ses and gender to further examine the nature of the significant individual variation in initial status and growth over time in the teacher and peer support, student autonomy, and clarity and consistency in school rules, the intercept and the slope factors of each of the models discussed above were regressed on gender and ses (see table 4 ). for each model, non-significant pathways were specified to zero and the models were re-fitted. in each case, the re-fitted models did not show significant degradation from the originals. the impact of gender and/or ses on each dimension of school climate indicated a small to medium effect size as indicated by the path coefficient. for teacher support, girls at the beginning of the sixth grade reported more teacher support than boys. similarly, adolescents from a lower socioeconomic background (i.e., receiving free or reduced price lunch) reported more positive perceptions of teacher support at the sixth grade than students from a higher socioeconomic status (i.e., not eligible for free or reduced price lunch). with respect to peer support, at the start of middle school, girls tended to perceive more peer support than boys. however, as the girls progressed through middle school, they evidenced steeper declines in their perceptions of peer support than the boys. in addition, students from a lower socioeconomic background reported less positive peer support at the start of middle school than the students from higher socioeconomic backgrounds, but the change over time did not differ by ses. for student autonomy, gender predicted initial levels such that girls at the start of middle school perceived greater opportunities for student involvement in the decision-making in their classrooms than boys. there were no ses differences indicated for the intercept or slope of opportunities for student autonomy. for clarity and
Using which software they performed a principal component analysis on the morphological dataset?
using the software canoco canoco 3.1 (microcomputer power, ithaca, ny, usa), we first performed a principal component analysis on the morphological dataset
Full form of RDA?
redundancy analysis (rda
we explored the distribution of individuals for each environmental variable, in order to detect general trends linking the performances of individuals to their habitat. using the software canoco canoco 3.1 (microcomputer power, ithaca, ny, usa), we first performed a principal component analysis on the morphological dataset (size, number of branches, stems and leaves) to assess how it describes the distribution of individuals. we then performed a redundancy analysis (rda) to test for correlations between the environmental variables and the morphological variables related to the fitness of individuals. all variables were previously centredreduced to give them the same weight and scores were attributed for nonquantitative variables. we used montecarlo permutation tests (999 permutations) to assess for significance. finally, we constructed a tri-plot graph with the distribution of individuals as a function of their morphological variables and constrained by the environmental variables.
What is a practical definition for forever?
500 years
How long will about one-quarter of fossil fuels CO2 emissions stay in the air?
about one-quarter of fossil fuel co2 emissions will stay in the air 'forever
How much emitted CO2 is still in the air after a century?
one-third of the emitted co2 is still in the air after a century
about one-quarter of fossil fuel co2 emissions will stay in the air 'forever', i.e. more than 500 years. this carbon cycle fact is well established archer 2005 ). however, implications of this fact have not penetrated the consciousness of the public and policy makers. we take 500 years as a practical definition of forever because it is long enough for large responses from both the ocean and ice sheets. resulting climate changes would be, from humanity's perspective, irreversible. figure 6 a shows the fate of a small pulse of co2 added to the atmosphere, for example via the burning offossil fuels, as calculated from the indicated five-term fit to the bern carbon cycle model joos et al 1996 shine et al 2005 ). one-third of the emitted co2 is still in the air after a century, and almost one-quarter is still there
What does the boreal summer extratropical circulation lack?
the boreal summer extratropical circulation lacks the strong jets and large amplitude stationary waves that typify the boreal winter climate
What does the summer season exhibit?
the summer season does exhibit substantial variability on monthly time scales including periods of extreme heat and flooding that at times appear to develop as part of continental or even planetary scale circulation changes (e.g., carril et al. 2007
What is one potentially important mechanism?
one potentially important mechanism is rossby wave propagation, in which the jet acts as a waveguide- a process known to be an important source of circumglobal teleconnectivity in winter (e.g., hoskins and ambrizzi, 1993; branstator 2002
the boreal summer extratropical circulation lacks the strong jets and large amplitude stationary waves that typify the boreal winter climate. this, together with the presence of pervasive tropical easterlies that inhibit remote forcing from the tropics, tends to limit boreal summer middle latitude variability to more local/regional processes, with meso-scale convective weather systems and landatmosphere coupling playing important roles (e.g., parker and johnson 2000; koster et al. 2000). nevertheless, the summer season does exhibit substantial variability on monthly time scales including periods of extreme heat and flooding that at times appear to develop as part of continental or even planetary scale circulation changes (e.g., carril et al. 2007). the nature of such large-scale summer circulation changes, including the mechanisms that act to maintain them on time scales far longer than those of local weather processes, is as yet unclear. one potentially important mechanism is rossby wave propagation, in which the jet acts as a waveguide- a process known to be an important source of circumglobal teleconnectivity in winter (e.g., hoskins and ambrizzi, 1993; branstator 2002).
Describe the variation in the fitness contributions?
data on individual variation in the fitness contributions to the following generations (lande et al. 2003) were obtained from 35 radio-collared females at the island storfosna in central norway (andersen and linnell 1998, gaillard et al. 1998
Describe the problem for our analysis of population synchrony?
a problem for our analysis of population synchrony was that we possessed data only on the number of hunted individuals and not on the actual numbers of individuals present
What are the ways to estimate of abundance in the populations?
assuming a linear relationship between hunting statistics and population abundance, we multiplied the numbers of harvested individuals by 4 to get an estimate of abundance in the populations
data on individual variation in the fitness contributions to the following generations (lande et al. 2003) were obtained from 35 radio-collared females at the island storfosna in central norway (andersen and linnell 1998, gaillard et al. 1998). a problem for our analysis of population synchrony was that we possessed data only on the number of hunted individuals and not on the actual numbers of individuals present. thus, the latter had to be approximated in order to estimate the effect of demographic stochasticity that is density dependent (lande et al. 2003). we assumed that 20-30% of the total numbers present in populations are harvested annually. assuming a linear relationship between hunting statistics and population abundance, we multiplied the numbers of harvested individuals by 4 to get an estimate of abundance in the populations.
What are the the two types of inputs that lend themselves to arbitrary choices?
the first is the social welfare (utility) function and related parameters needed to value and compare current and future gains and losses from abatement. the second is the set of functional forms and related parameters that determine the response of temperature to changing co2e concentrations and (especially) the economic impact of rising temperatures
Why are the social welfare (utility) function and related parameters needed?
to value and compare current and future gains and losses from abatement
What does CRRA stand for?
constant relative risk aversion
there are two types of inputs that lend themselves to arbitrary choices. the first is the social welfare (utility) function and related parameters needed to value and compare current and future gains and losses from abatement. the second is the set of functional forms and related parameters that determine the response of temperature to changing co2e concentrations and (especially) the economic impact of rising temperatures. i discuss the social welfare function here, and leave the functional forms and related parameters to later when i discuss the "guts" of these models. 2.2 the social welfare function most models use a simple framework for valuing lost consumption at different points in time: time-additive, constant relative risk aversion (crra) utility, so that social welfare is (1) w 1
In what month do large anomalies occur the most?
it is again noteworthy that most of the large anomalies occur during june
what are the two component's that make the 2010 anomaly stand out?
the 2010 anomaly stands out because it occurs during july, and because it has a large seasonal mean component
The important contributions of REOFs to monthly climate anomalies are from which two REOFs'?
figs. 8 -10 provide examples of the important contributions made by the first and fourth reofs to the monthly climate anomalies over eurasia and north america
figs. 8 -10 provide examples of the important contributions made by the first and fourth reofs to the monthly climate anomalies over eurasia and north america. here we have selected several months that have a substantial contribution from reof 1 based on the rpc loadings shown in fig 7. the signature of reof 1 is clearly evident in the v250mb anomalies (fig. 8), with alternating positive and negative 250mb v-wind anomalies extending across northern eurasia. it is again noteworthy that most of the large anomalies occur during june. the 2010 anomaly stands out because it occurs during july, and because it has a large seasonal mean component. that month is also distinguished by a large amplitude southern track (embedded within the asian jet wave guide) of the anomalies - in fact that aspect of the wave is associated with a large negative loading of reof 5 (bottom right panel of fig. 7).
Are all integrated development and climate strategies implemented by national governments and international organizations?
although some national governments and international organizations have begun to mainstream climate policy in other policy areas, integrated development and climate strategies are not widely implemented for a variety of reasons (agrawala, 2005; sow and saint sernin, 2005; mitchell et al., 2006; schipper and pelling, 2006; hellmuth et al., 2007; kok and de coninck, 2007; agrawala and van aalst, 2008
Why are these strategies not integrated by all governments and organizations?
climate change has, for a long time, not been recognized as an important issue for development, despite the fact that it is already starting to negatively impact development efforts. in addition, the costs and benefits of an integrated approach are not always clear, and attribution to single actions or policies is difficult. there are also reasons that have to do with how governments work and the lack of human and institutional capacity and lack of coordination and cooperation. lack of joint decision making between different national ministries is a major constraint
What explains this slow political integration?
developing countries feel the pressure, especially from the international donor community, to mainstream various interrelated aspects into their core development policies; not only climate change, but also gender, hiv/aids, biodiversity and other issues. the oecd (agrawala, 2005) calls that mainstreaming 'fatigue' or 'overload'. and last, but not least, there is a poor understanding of how to deal with scientific uncertainties amongst stakeholders
although some national governments and international organizations have begun to mainstream climate policy in other policy areas, integrated development and climate strategies are not widely implemented for a variety of reasons (agrawala, 2005; sow and saint sernin, 2005; mitchell et al., 2006; schipper and pelling, 2006; hellmuth et al., 2007; kok and de coninck, 2007; agrawala and van aalst, 2008). climate change has, for a long time, not been recognized as an important issue for development, despite the fact that it is already starting to negatively impact development efforts. in addition, the costs and benefits of an integrated approach are not always clear, and attribution to single actions or policies is difficult. there are also reasons that have to do with how governments work and the lack of human and institutional capacity and lack of coordination and cooperation. lack of joint decision making between different national ministries is a major constraint. developing countries feel the pressure, especially from the international donor community, to mainstream various interrelated aspects into their core development policies; not only climate change, but also gender, hiv/aids, biodiversity and other issues. the oecd (agrawala, 2005) calls that mainstreaming 'fatigue' or 'overload'. and last, but not least, there is a poor understanding of how to deal with scientific uncertainties amongst stakeholders.
What is different about the world's current climatic changes?
what appears to be different this time is that one species, humans, is contributing to the change, and that climate change is impacting the ecosystems on which it depends
Environmentally-induced migration & displacement has the potential to become what?
environmentally-induced migration and displacement has the potential to become an unprecedented phenomenon--both in terms of scale and scope
Climate change will visit urban & rural areas with what?
climate change will visit urban and rural areas alike with increasingly frequent and violent hazard events. flooding, intense storms, or droughts, or more gradual but significant changes in regional climates place great stress on livelihood systems
our world has experienced profound climatic changes before. what appears to be different this time is that one species, humans, is contributing to the change, and that climate change is impacting the ecosystems on which it depends. environmentally-induced migration and displacement has the potential to become an unprecedented phenomenon--both in terms of scale and scope. its effects on the global economy, international development, and national budgets could have significant implications for almost all dimensions of human security and wellbeing, in addition to political and state security. migration--whether permanent or temporary, internal or international--has always been a possible adaptation strategy for people facing environmental changes. pre-history and history are marked by migration and displacement from one climate zone to another, as people sought out environments that would support survival as well as aspirations for a better life. some waves of migration and displacement have been associated with cultural collapse, as familiar landscapes no longer provided safe or supporting habitats and livelihoods for people. today, environmental change, including climate change, presents a new threat to human security and a new situation for human mobility. by 2050 when human population is projected to peak, some 9 billion people will live on earth. the majority of them will live in urban areas with crushing environmental footprints. many megacities are located in areas prone to sea level rise. climate change will visit urban and rural areas alike with increasingly frequent and violent hazard events. flooding, intense storms, or droughts, or more gradual but significant changes in regional climates place great stress on livelihood systems. these pressures will contribute to migration and displacement, along with myriad other factors. in coming decades, climate change will motivate or force millions of people to leave their homes in search of viable livelihoods and safety. although the precise number of migrants and displaced people may elude science for some time, the mass of people on the move will likely be staggering and surpass any historical antecedent. most people will seek shelter in their own countries while others will cross borders in search of better chances. some migration and displacement will be prevented through adaptation measures, including changes in agricultural productivity and integrated water management. however, poorer countries are under-equipped to implement wide-spread adaptation activities; and migration will be the only option for many people in the south. our responses to climate change today will help determine whether migration will be a matter of choice in a wider range of adaptation options, or whether forced migration and displacement will be a matter of mere survival due to a collective failure to provide adequate adaptation alternatives.
The discussion of progress towards goal 7, on environmental sustainability, explicitly considers which factors?
the discussion of progress towards goal 7, on environmental sustainability, explicitly considers the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, efforts to combat deforestation through sustainable forest management and an increase in energy efficiency, but also issues such as biodiversity, the use of ozone-depleting substances, access to safe drinking water and sanitation and the living conditions of slum dwellers
With respect to greenhouse gas emission reduction, the presentation underscores that the greatest effort is required within which type of countries?
with respect to greenhouse gas emission reduction, the presentation underscores that the greatest effort is required within industrialized countries
What does the UN document stress with respect to strengthening international cooperation?
finally, with respect to strengthening international cooperation (goal 8), the un document stresses development aid and debt relief as well as international trade policies
the discussion of progress towards goal 7, on environmental sustainability, explicitly considers the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, efforts to combat deforestation through sustainable forest management and an increase in energy efficiency, but also issues such as biodiversity, the use of ozone-depleting substances, access to safe drinking water and sanitation and the living conditions of slum dwellers. with respect to greenhouse gas emission reduction, the presentation underscores that the greatest effort is required within industrialized countries. finally, with respect to strengthening international cooperation (goal 8), the un document stresses development aid and debt relief as well as international trade policies, in particular the still unsettled problems of agricultural subsidies in industrialized countries and the remaining high tariffs on clothing, agricultural products and textiles. moreover it highlights the necessity of further cooperation between public authorities and private firms to enhance the availability of essential drugs against diseases such as aids, malaria and tuberculosis and or the availability of necessary ingredients to prepare these drugs. other issues are the 14 14 spread of information technologies and the attempt to fight youth unemployment, in order to reduce the risk of social unrest. overall, climate policy related activities appear to play a minor and rather insignificant role in this report.
How many types threat in  the industry market?
threat to an industry's markets, whether from regulation, popular opinion, or technological innovation, is inherently a political threat; similarly, corporate response strategies to such threats, including research and development
What is thestrategies to protect  market on the material level?
on the material level, companies develop regulatory and technological strategies to protect their existing markets and invest resources in environmentally preferable products and processes
gramscian analysis suggests, however, that without real roots in civil society, historical blocs are likely to be weak. on the material level, companies develop regulatory and technological strategies to protect their existing markets and invest resources in environmentally preferable products and processes. on the discursive level, companies attempt to challenge the scientific and economic basis for regulation, and use public relations to portray themselves and their products as 'green', adopting the language of sustainability, stewardship, and corporate citizenship. one implication of viewing cps as a 'war of position' is that the traditional distinction between political and market strategies is unsustainable. any threat to an industry's markets, whether from regulation, popular opinion, or technological innovation, is inherently a political threat; similarly, corporate response strategies to such threats, including research and development, mergers, or lobbying, can all be understood as forms of cps. it is not just that companies can benefit from coordinating market and non-market strategies (baron, 1997); more profoundly, this conception points to the interrelationships among 'the social and material conditions within which industry production is organized, the linkages of economic production with the social and cultural elements of life, the political and regulatory context of economic production, and the influence of production and firm strategies on the industry's economic, ecological, and social environments' (shrivastava, 1986, p. 374). in a fundamental sense, all strategy is political. our account of cps differs from power structure and dite theory perspectives in its attention to contingency, ideology, and the potential for contestation. however, the bargaining process should not be mistaken for a pluralist model in which all actors are equal. the neo-gramscian framework brings a critical lens highlighting the influential position enjoyed by business, despite differences among
Why is there low air conditioning in Pakistan?
pakistan is a country where the incidence of air conditioning is low, and where a wide range of temperature is found, not only outside but also inside buildings
What prompted the level of thermal comfort in pakistan?
several studies have been made of thermal comfort in pakistan, 9 and of the use people make of the thermal controls that are available
What caused the surroundings to adapt to one of those skills?
as fuel prices increase, the ability to adapt to our surroundings is likely to be one of those skills
in the past, countries have been assumed to take a path of increasing technological sophistication. in the response to climate change it may be necessary to relearn skills that have fallen into disuse. as fuel prices increase, the ability to adapt to our surroundings is likely to be one of those skills. several studies have been made of thermal comfort in pakistan, 9 and of the use people make of the thermal controls that are available. pakistan is a country where the incidence of air conditioning is low, and where a wide range of temperature is found, not only outside but also inside buildings. this is partly because the ' level of technology ' is less developed in pakistan, but
What combines probablities?
in this section we combine the probabilities provided by the experts in section 2.2 with information on the impacts on the mac from section 3. we want to represent the probabilistic relationship between r&d investments and technical change, where technical change is represented by the impact on the mac, a in order to translate our data into information about the returns to r&d, we need to hypothesize funding orders -- rules determining which project will get funded fi rst, second, etc
What combines probablities?
in this section we combine the probabilities provided by the experts in section 2.2 with information on the impacts on the mac from section 3. we want to represent the probabilistic relationship between r&d investments and technical change, where technical change is represented by the impact on the mac, a in order to translate our data into information about the returns to r&d, we need to hypothesize funding orders -- rules determining which project will get funded fi rst, second, etc
What combines probablities?
in this section we combine the probabilities provided by the experts in section 2.2 with information on the impacts on the mac from section 3. we want to represent the probabilistic relationship between r&d investments and technical change, where technical change is represented by the impact on the mac, a in order to translate our data into information about the returns to r&d, we need to hypothesize funding orders -- rules determining which project will get funded fi rst, second, etc
in this section we combine the probabilities provided by the experts in section 2.2 with information on the impacts on the mac from section 3. we want to represent the probabilistic relationship between r&d investments and technical change, where technical change is represented by the impact on the mac, a in order to translate our data into information about the returns to r&d, we need to hypothesize funding orders -- rules determining which project will get funded fi rst, second, etc. using these funding orders, we present information on the marginal impact of additional r&d investment in two di ff erent ways -- on the expected value of a and on the probability of success. the most typical funding order would be to fund projects in the order of the expected impact per dollar invested. this is a good heuristic that is widely used in industry, although it clearly does not always result in the optimal portfolio. one major weakness of this heuristic is that it ignores risk issues completely, only focusing on expected return. therefore, it may be useful to consider alternate funding orders. we also consider a "high risk" and "low risk" funding order, since previous work has shown that the optimal riskiness of the projects may 25 vary the "low risk" order is determined by funding projects in order of the probability of success per dollar invested. this is what an extremely risk averse decision maker might do. the high risk order is determined by funding projects in order of the potential impact per dollar invested (ignoring the probability of success). this corresponds to the behavior of an extremely risk seeking decision maker. we have calculated the main and low risk funding orders, using averaged probabilities and using log-odds averaged probabilities. table 6 shows the order in which projects would be funded for the fi ve funding orders.
What emphasized the literature review on the school climate? Emphasized the importance of student safety in the educational environment
a review of literature on school climate stressed the importance of student safety within the educational environment
How were the results? the results are inconclusive
 however, results are inconclusive with regard to the associations between safety characteristics and student academic achievement
What does Ma and Wilkins' 2002 work provide? provides evidence that the disciplinary climate
ma and wilkins ' 2002 work provides evidence that the disciplinary climate, measured as the prevalence of serious behavioral problems within each school
a review of literature on school climate stressed the importance of student safety within the educational environment (mcevoy and welker 2000 ). however, results are inconclusive with regard to the associations between safety characteristics and student academic achievement. ma and wilkins ' 2002 work provides evidence that the disciplinary climate, measured as the prevalence of serious behavioral problems within each school, does not predict individual standardized test scores after controlling for a number of academic and community climate factors (e.g., academic pressure, teacher commitment) and institutional structural characteristics (e.g., size, ses, location). another study has found that school discipline and order are not related to academic success and have the weakest relation to students ' stress coping compared to all other school climate variables (ruus et al. 2007 ). contrarily, another study ' s results reveal that higher quality security factors are associated with greater math achievement in first grade, but are not predictive of achievement in second grade (esposito 1999 ).
what are the variable climate of Modern plant taxa?
modern plant taxa have persisted through a long period of variable climate, including glacial-interglacial cycles with large changes in temperature, precipitation, and co2 concentration, over the past 2.5 million years
how did plant fragments preserve in middens In arid regions?
in arid regions, where pollen-bearing sediments are less abundant, plant fragments preserved in middens made by packrats neotoma and other rodents provide a spatially precise record of past species distributions
how were the Regional temperature changes?
regional temperature changes were as rapid as several degrees celsius within a few decades or as slow as 1degc per millennium
modern plant taxa have persisted through a long period of variable climate, including glacial-interglacial cycles with large changes in temperature, precipitation, and co2 concentration, over the past 2.5 million years. rates of climate change varied widely: regional temperature changes were as rapid as several degrees celsius within a few decades or as slow as 1degc per millennium. the changes in species distribution evidenced by fossils provide a detailed record of plant responses to these changes. hundreds of pollen diagrams, compiled in databases, provide regional and continental records of tree abundances as they changed through space and time 1-3 ). new pollen records supplemented by macrofossils 4 and dna recovered from fossil pollen 5 provide increasing temporal and taxonomic detail. in arid regions, where pollen-bearing sediments are less abundant, plant fragments preserved in middens made by packrats neotoma and other rodents provide a spatially precise record of past species distributions 6 ). changes in geographic distribution are so frequently documented in the fossil record that range shifts are seen as the expected plant response to future climate change 7 ). beyond changes in distribution, however, plants underwent genetic changes, adapting to changes in climate during the quaternary. yet adaptation at the population level is seldom considered in the literature describing quaternary environments nor, with some notable exceptions 8-10 ), in discussions of vegetation response to anticipated global change. here we cite evidence of genetic adaptation to climate and argue that the interplay of adaptation and migration has been central to biotic response to climate change. moreover, we discuss how rapid climate change challenges this process, pushing populations to limits of adaptation, thus influencing regional ecosystem properties as well as the persistence of taxa.
How would you estimate the uncertainty of compaction?
to estimate the associated uncertainty, each of the fourteen cores are also decompacted using the individual porositydepth trends, yielding seven estimates of decompacted depth
What is the general range of decompaction?
while uncertainties range up to 6 kyr, they are always less than half the magnitude of the estimated bias, and thus decompaction is inferred to significantly improve the accuracy of the depth-derived age estimates
How many core sites were used in this study?
although it is highly likely that trends in compaction exists at all, or most, of the core sites [e.g., bahr et al. 2001], the compaction correction has considerable uncertainty for the thirteen sites at which porosity measurements are not available
although it is highly likely that trends in compaction exists at all, or most, of the core sites [e.g., bahr et al. 2001], the compaction correction has considerable uncertainty for the thirteen sites at which porosity measurements are not available. standard decompaction formula are only applicable at depths well below that of the b-m baldwind and butler 1985; bahr et al. 2001] (greater than 200 m), and we choose to use the mean of the seven identified porosity trends (see figure 12) as the basis for decompacting the remaining fourteen cores according to equation (a7), to include odp980. to estimate the associated uncertainty, each of the fourteen cores are also decompacted using the individual porositydepth trends, yielding seven estimates of decompacted depth. age is then estimated from each realization of the decompacted depth scale according to equation (13), and the standard deviation of these ages is taken as the estimated uncertainty. table 3 lists the age correction resulting from decompaction at each event for each d18o record and the uncertainty in the mean age off-set. all corrections make the d18o events relatively younger and range from zero at the endpoints to 15 kyr at 350 kyr bp. while uncertainties range up to 6 kyr, they are always less than half the magnitude of the estimated bias, and thus decompaction is inferred to significantly improve the accuracy of the depth-derived age estimates.
Is the data used here filtered in any way?
the raw promice data are used here without any filtering
On what are the MAR values at each station based?
an interpolation of the 4 nearest mar grid cells weighted by the inverse distance to the station
Is the elevation difference between MAR and AWS corrected or not?
as the elevation difference between mar and aws is not corrected
(ahlstrom et al., 2008) starting  in mid-2007 is presented over the common period covered by the forcing datasets used here: 2008-2010. the raw promice data are used here without any filtering or withdrawing of aberrant values. the mar values at each station are based on an interpolation of the 4 nearest mar grid cells weighted by the inverse distance to the station. as the elevation difference between mar and aws is not corrected, the comparison is only carried out on the 12 aws's listed in table s1 of supplementary material that have an elevation difference within 100m of the interpolated mar 20km topography. 15
How is the data assimilation approach used?
the data assimilation approach used is an application of sequential estimation in which a numerical model driven by observed surface forcing is used to provide a first guess of the evolving ocean state, which is then corrected based on direct observations
What does the resulting ocean reanalysis provide for?
the resulting ocean reanalysis provides an estimate of the state, which is an improvement over estimates based solely on either the sparse set of observations or numerical simulation
Why was the atmospheric observing system set up?
however, the atmospheric observing system was set up to support weather forecasting, not to produce multidecadal reanalyses
in this paper we report on the multiyear simple ocean data assimilation (soda) effort to reconstruct the changing physical climate of the global ocean. the data assimilation approach used is an application of sequential estimation in which a numerical model driven by observed surface forcing is used to provide a first guess of the evolving ocean state, which is then corrected based on direct observations. the resulting ocean reanalysis provides an estimate of the state, which is an improvement over estimates based solely on either the sparse set of observations or numerical simulation. the results presented here cover the 44-yr period 1958-2001 spanned by the 40-yr european centre for medium range forecasts (ecmwf) atmospheric reanalysis (era-40). since becoming available in the mid-1990s atmospheric reanalyses have proved revolutionary in providing uniformly mapped and regularly available samples of not only variables that are directly observed, but also indirect variables such as vertical velocity. however, the atmospheric observing system was set up to support weather forecasting, not to produce multidecadal reanalyses. as a result, the reanalysis variables are subject to systematic errors due to changes in the observing system. an example of these changes is the introduction of satellite radiance observations in the late 1970s (mo et al. 1995; bengtsson et al. 2004). other changes have affected measurement errors in conventional observations, such as the gradual increase in the average height of shipboard anemometers. the influence of these changes may explain some of the trends evident
Why are indigenous peoples and rural communities more vulnerable to the impacts of global climate change?
indigenous peoples and rural communities are vulnerable to the impacts of global climate change, not only because they depend on resources and the environment for their living, but also because they are often marginalized from decisionmaking processes and places of power
Why is the indigenous peoples' knowledge so significant?
the significance of indigenous knowledge becomes all the more evident once it is acknowledged that indigenous peoples and local communities have been confronted with environmental variability and unpredictability for centuries. they have developed a wide variety of technical, social and economic responses that constitute the basis for their resilience in the face of change. even though the transformations brought about by global climate change will undoubtedly surpass the lived experience of everyone, including indigenous peoples, a strong case can nonetheless be made for recognising indigenous resilience as the basis for indigenous adaptation, and for fostering their fullest expression
How can government policy help to preserve indigenous peoples' resilience?
this may include policies to preserve strategic choices and fallback options by supporting the continuation of nomadic or semi-nomadic lifestyles, securing access and ownership over traditional territories, removing unnecessary restrictions on resources, and fostering diversity of domestic crops and animals, among other things. such policies will need to be formulated on the basis of further interdisciplinary action research that brings together indigenous knowledge holders and scientists, both natural and social, to build mutual understanding and reinforce dialogue
indigenous peoples and rural communities are vulnerable to the impacts of global climate change, not only because they depend on resources and the environment for their living, but also because they are often marginalized from decisionmaking processes and places of power. this said, they are neither passive nor without ways and means. they engage actively with their natural environment in their day-to-day lives, are experienced and attentive observers, and have accumulated sizable and sophisticated bodies of knowledge and practices about their environment, its variability and transformation. this knowledge and knowhow provides the basis for people's livelihoods, which are in turn at the centre of societal efforts to adapt to variability and change. indigenous knowledge can therefore provide important insights into processes of adaptation. the significance of indigenous knowledge becomes all the more evident once it is acknowledged that indigenous peoples and local communities have been confronted with environmental variability and unpredictability for centuries. they have developed a wide variety of technical, social and economic responses that constitute the basis for their resilience in the face of change. even though the transformations brought about by global climate change will undoubtedly surpass the lived experience of everyone, including indigenous peoples, a strong case can nonetheless be made for recognising indigenous resilience as the basis for indigenous adaptation, and for fostering their fullest expression. government policy and action should preserve and boost indigenous resilience. this may include policies to preserve strategic choices and fallback options by supporting the continuation of nomadic or semi-nomadic lifestyles, securing access and ownership over traditional territories, removing unnecessary restrictions on resources, and fostering diversity of domestic crops and animals, among other things. such policies will need to be formulated on the basis of further interdisciplinary action research that brings together indigenous knowledge holders and scientists, both natural and social, to build mutual understanding and reinforce dialogue. it is essential that indigenous peoples - who are active resource users and bearers of traditional knowledge - play a central role in this process. recent partnerships between indigenous peoples and scientists are producing new knowledge in response to the emerging challenges of climate change. this co-produced knowledge that derives from synergies between both systems of knowledge may point the way forward to promising and productive ways to address the complexities of climate change adaptation.
What do Earth's climate exhibit?
earth's climate exhibits variations on all resolvable timescales, from the interannual (year to year) to the geological (millions of years and longer
How is Earth's variability known?
this variability is known to result from both internal and external factors, the latter associated with both natural and anthropogenic influences
What is generally believed?
it is generally believed that modern (e.g., nineteenth to twenty-first century) climate change is due primarily to anthropogenic factors, including increased greenhouse gas concentrations owing to fossil fuel burning and the more regionally limited offsetting cooling influence of anthropogenic tropospheric aerosols
earth's climate exhibits variations on all resolvable timescales, from the interannual (year to year) to the geological (millions of years and longer). this variability is known to result from both internal and external factors, the latter associated with both natural and anthropogenic influences. a good review is provided by ruddiman (2001). it is generally believed that modern (e.g., nineteenth to twenty-first century) climate change is due primarily to anthropogenic factors, including increased greenhouse gas concentrations owing to fossil fuel burning and the more regionally limited offsetting cooling influence of anthropogenic tropospheric aerosols. on longer timescales, a variety of natural processes, both internal (e.g., intrinsic modes of variability in the atmosphere and ocean) and external (e.g., solar and volcanic radiative forcing changes and, to a lesser extent, earth-orbital changes) are believed to have been important over the past one to two millennia. over the past two millennia, the basic boundary conditions of earth's climate (e.g., the continental arrangement, orography, earth-orbital parameters, and the spatial extent of continental ice sheets) have not changed significantly. this time interval thus provides an appropriate context for estimating the envelope of natural climate variability within which modern climate change should be interpreted. because the instrumental record can only provide information regarding large-scale (e.g., hemispheric) climate changes over only the past one-and-a-half centuries, and selected regions for only the past few centuries, it is essential that we turn to other lines of evidence to evaluate the longer-term changes over the past one or two millennia. one line of evidence is provided by so-called proxy climate data, natural or historical archives of information that describe, albeit imperfectly, climate variations in prior centuries. those proxy data with relatively high (decadal or better) resolution, such as tree rings, corals, ice cores, historical records, and in some cases speleothems, and lake and marine sediments [see e.g., the review by bradley (1999)] can be used to reconstruct climate variations over past centuries and, in some cases, as far back as the past two millennia. in addition, it is possible to use independent proxy and historical sources to estimate the actual external "forcings" of climate over this time interval (specifically, volcanic and solar natural radiative forcing, and anthropogenic greenhouse gas, aerosol, and land-use forcing). these estimates can be used to drive theoretical climate model simulations of the past millennium or longer jones mann 2004). a comparison of proxy-based reconstructions with such model simulation results can provide insight into the roles of various external and internal factors behind the variability of past centuries to millennia.
How many other research needs and knowledge gaps were identified throughout the report?
other research needs and knowledge gaps identified throughout the report include: 1) better understanding of the interactive effects between climate change and non-climatic stresses, such as land use change and population growth 2) better understanding of the linkages between science and policy and how to strengthen them 3) studies on the potential social, economic and/or environmental consequences of implementing adaptation options 4) better understanding of current capacity to deal with stress, and ways to enhance adaptive capacity 5) understanding of the barriers to adaptation, and how to reduce them 6) studies on how to incorporate climate change into existing risk management frameworks and long-term planning 7) improved understanding of the factors that influence adaptation decision-making and how to designate responsibility for action
Where is it frequently recommended that research should be focused?
it is also frequently recommended that research focus on regions and sectors considered to be most vulnerable, as well as on the climate changes that would pose the greatest threats to human systems
List 2 of the 7 research needs and knowledge gaps identified in the report?
other research needs and knowledge gaps identified throughout the report include: 1) better understanding of the interactive effects between climate change and non-climatic stresses, such as land use change and population growth 2) better understanding of the linkages between science and policy and how to strengthen them 3) studies on the potential social, economic and/or environmental consequences of implementing adaptation options 4) better understanding of current capacity to deal with stress, and ways to enhance adaptive capacity 5) understanding of the barriers to adaptation, and how to reduce them 6) studies on how to incorporate climate change into existing risk management frameworks and long-term planning 7) improved understanding of the factors that influence adaptation decision-making and how to designate responsibility for action
although certain research needs are unique to each sector, other issues are recurrent throughout the report. for example, each sector would benefit from increased research on social and economic impacts, as well as improved access to and availability of data. research that integrates impacts and adaptation issues across different sectors, and examines their interrelations and interdependencies, is needed as well. it is also frequently recommended that research focus on regions and sectors considered to be most vulnerable, as well as on the climate changes that would pose the greatest threats to human systems. these include extreme climate events, rapid climate change, and climate changes that cause critical thresholds to be exceeded. other research needs and knowledge gaps identified throughout the report include: 1) better understanding of the interactive effects between climate change and non-climatic stresses, such as land use change and population growth 2) better understanding of the linkages between science and policy and how to strengthen them 3) studies on the potential social, economic and/or environmental consequences of implementing adaptation options 4) better understanding of current capacity to deal with stress, and ways to enhance adaptive capacity 5) understanding of the barriers to adaptation, and how to reduce them 6) studies on how to incorporate climate change into existing risk management frameworks and long-term planning 7) improved understanding of the factors that influence adaptation decision-making and how to designate responsibility for action.
According to the text how were affective images of global warming measured?
affective images of global warming affective images were measured using a form of word association to the stimulus "global warming
Explain what was done to the information from respondents who were asked to provide the first thought or image that came to mind when they heard the words "global warming
each association was then rated by the respondent using a scale ranging from -5 (very negative) to +5 (very positive). a content analysis of these associations identified a total of 24 distinct thematic categories
According to the text, what is currently the most salient image of global warming among the American 6 6?
associations to melting glaciers and polar ice were the single largest category of responses, indicating that this current and projected impact of climate change is currently the most salient image of global warming among the american 6 6
affective images of global warming affective images were measured using a form of word association to the stimulus "global warming." respondents were asked to provide the first thought or image that came to mind when they heard the words "global warming." each association was then rated by the respondent using a scale ranging from -5 (very negative) to +5 (very positive). a content analysis of these associations identified a total of 24 distinct thematic categories. the top eight categories, however, represent 97% of all respondents (figure 2). associations to melting glaciers and polar ice were the single largest category of responses, indicating that this current and projected impact of climate change is currently the most salient image of global warming among the american 6 6
What is the Migration Factor?
using the migration factor data presented above, the shape of the influence of subjective norm upon the migration decision can be inferred. however, rather than create an overly complex subjective norm function using regression equations that require further assumptions on the number of peers required to affect an individual agent ' s behaviour, migration factor values are interpreted using a more simplistic approach
What is the average migration factor for a region?
from the range of migration factors calculated for each zone, the minimum, average and maximum values are used to develop the subjective norm used in the model. the average migration factor for a zone is therefore used to represent the standard subjective norm value used if an agent in the model has been recommended a particular migration option by just one of their peer
Tell us about the migration process?
in such an instance, the subjective norm value an individual would return on the basis of their peer opinions for that option would be 1. if an agent has zero peers that favour migration to the destination being considered, the agent uses the minimum relevant migration function for their zone but adjusted to represent the appropriate proportion of the average using equation s.4 in order to permit the minimum value to relate to an average equivalent to
using the migration factor data presented above, the shape of the influence of subjective norm upon the migration decision can be inferred. however, rather than create an overly complex subjective norm function using regression equations that require further assumptions on the number of peers required to affect an individual agent ' s behaviour, migration factor values are interpreted using a more simplistic approach. from the range of migration factors calculated for each zone, the minimum, average and maximum values are used to develop the subjective norm used in the model. the average migration factor for a zone is therefore used to represent the standard subjective norm value used if an agent in the model has been recommended a particular migration option by just one of their peers. in such an instance, the subjective norm value an individual would return on the basis of their peer opinions for that option would be 1. if an agent has zero peers that favour migration to the destination being considered, the agent uses the minimum relevant migration function for their zone but adjusted to represent the appropriate proportion of the average using equation s.4 in order to permit the minimum value to relate to an average equivalent to 1.
What needs to be done to manage the health effects of climate change related to shelter and human settlements?
the management of health eff ects of climate change related to shelter and human settlements requires not only secure emergency shelter for those displaced or aff ected by climate variability events, but also human settlements prepared for the future climate-changed environment
What are the implications of the increased environmental impact of the urbanization process in developing countries?
the process of urbanisation in the developing world is structurally linked to increased environmental vulnerability, with a high percentage of the urban population exposed to climate-related hazards, such as fl oods and landslides, as well as to related health problems, such as disease and injury
Who is being affected by climate change?
climate change increases this vulnerability, especially for the poorest and most powerless groups in society, as they often have not been given opportunities to adapt. thus, poverty reduction needs to be placed at the forefront of the debate on adapting human settlements to climate change
the management of health eff ects of climate change related to shelter and human settlements requires not only secure emergency shelter for those displaced or aff ected by climate variability events, but also human settlements prepared for the future climate-changed environment. the process of urbanisation in the developing world is structurally linked to increased environmental vulnerability, with a high percentage of the urban population exposed to climate-related hazards, such as fl oods and landslides, as well as to related health problems, such as disease and injury. climate change increases this vulnerability, especially for the poorest and most powerless groups in society, as they often have not been given opportunities to adapt. thus, poverty reduction needs to be placed at the forefront of the debate on adapting human settlements to climate change.
What is meant by future learning?
nevertheless an understanding of the risks of action compared to the risks of inaction at the outset provides a benchmark to inform this approach. central to the issues raised by future learning is whether and how much to reduce or delay making irreversible commitments today, in order to preserve the option of exploiting better information in the future
What is climate change?
whether the amount of abatement we undertake in the short term rises or falls in an analysis with learning, compared to an approach using a onceandforall decision with no learning, depends on the balance of at least three irreversibilities with different implications. (i) we risk an irreversible commitment to climate-change damages. a
What is climate change capital?
if we later discover that climate change is less of a threat, we will have needlessly invested in abatement capital, so the appropriate strategy now would be to undertake less abatement, all else equal. (iii) we risk an irreversible investment - lock-in - in energyand carbon-intensive capital that produces ghg emissions, making delay in the achievement of a particular stabilisation target costly, having to make much more rapid reductions later. this is distinct from (i), which is an irreversibility in the physical system. it would lead us, all else equal, to increase abatement in the short term, in order to avoid lock-in to such capital, were climate change later to turn out to be a significant threat
nevertheless an understanding of the risks of action compared to the risks of inaction at the outset provides a benchmark to inform this approach. central to the issues raised by future learning is whether and how much to reduce or delay making irreversible commitments today, in order to preserve the option of exploiting better information in the future. whether the amount of abatement we undertake in the short term rises or falls in an analysis with learning, compared to an approach using a onceandforall decision with no learning, depends on the balance of at least three irreversibilities with different implications. (i) we risk an irreversible commitment to climate-change damages. all else equal, we would increase abatement in order to reduce this commitment. (ii) we risk an irreversible investment in capital that reduces ghg emissions. if we later discover that climate change is less of a threat, we will have needlessly invested in abatement capital, so the appropriate strategy now would be to undertake less abatement, all else equal. (iii) we risk an irreversible investment - lock-in - in energyand carbon-intensive capital that produces ghg emissions, making delay in the achievement of a particular stabilisation target costly, having to make much more rapid reductions later. this is distinct from (i), which is an irreversibility in the physical system. it would lead us, all else equal, to increase abatement in the short term, in order to avoid lock-in to such capital, were climate change later to turn out to be a significant threat.
Fill in the Blank: Modelling of high-latitude Southern Hemisphere Holocene climate 955 In October, ________ is enhanced over most places south of 60 8 S, thus following a trend ______ to that of temperature
hans renssen et al .: modelling of high-latitude southern hemisphere holocene climate 955 in october, precipitation is enhanced over most places south of 60 8 s, thus following a trend opposite to that of temperature
This increase during spring is concentrated along the coast of Antarctica (by up to 5 mm, not shown) and is associated with what?
this increase during spring is concentrated along the coast of antarctica (by up to 5 mm, not shown) and is associated with maximum changes in surface pressure
Are the simulated long-term changes in precipitation large or small compared with the interannual variability?
it should be noted that the simulated long-term changes in precipitation, as shown in the simulated time series (figure 2b), are small compared with the interannual variability (as expressed by the standard deviation, table 1
hans renssen et al .: modelling of high-latitude southern hemisphere holocene climate 955 in october, precipitation is enhanced over most places south of 60 8 s, thus following a trend opposite to that of temperature. this increase during spring is concentrated along the coast of antarctica (by up to 5 mm, not shown) and is associated with maximum changes in surface pressure (figure 5). the annual precipitation experiences a small decrease (0.3 mm) from 9 to 0 ka (not shown). it should be noted that the simulated long-term changes in precipitation, as shown in the simulated time series (figure 2b), are small compared with the interannual variability (as expressed by the standard deviation, table 1)
What did CGCM1 simulated annual runoff changes and values predict?
cgcm1 simulated annual runoff changes and values predicted by using aridity index is consistently around 0.95 and the average bias varies between 40.54 and 50.31 mm/year, for the five functional forms
What do the successful validation of the use of aridity index to obtain an estimate of change in runoff against GCM data from a climate change simulation demonstrate?
the successful validation of the use of aridity index to obtain an estimate of change in runoff against gcm data from a climate change simulation demonstrates the strong control of available energy and precipitation in determining annual evapotranspiration and runoff rates, and the continued relevance of aridity index in analyses of budyko and other researchers
How the five functional forms may be used to?
thus any of the five functional forms may be used to obtain an estimate of change in runoff
cgcm1 simulated annual runoff changes and values predicted by using aridity index is consistently around 0.95 and the average bias varies between 40.54 and 50.31 mm/year, for the five functional forms. the successful validation of the use of aridity index to obtain an estimate of change in runoff against gcm data from a climate change simulation demonstrates the strong control of available energy and precipitation in determining annual evapotranspiration and runoff rates, and the continued relevance of aridity index in analyses of budyko and other researchers. it is also found that annual changes in runoff predicted by the five functional forms are similar to each other and no single functional form stands out as an outlier. thus any of the five functional forms may be used to obtain an estimate of change in runoff. the simple expression for obtaining an estimate of change in runoff based on changes in precipitation and potential evaporation, and the use of aridity index, provides a straight-forward method to obtain a firstorder estimate of the effect of climate change on annual runoff with performing detailed hydrological model simulations. acknowledgments the author would like to thank the two anonymous reviewers for their constructive criticism and helpful comments. references
What does financing climate-safe and climate-friendly development require?
large additional funds, which are not available through the unfccc financial mechanisms
Where does the main contribution need to come from?
development financing and private investments, both domestic and international
What is the first attempt to generate a leveraging mechanism?
the world bank's clean energy and the sustainable development framework
financing climate-safe and climate-friendly development requires large additional funds, which are not available through the unfccc financial mechanisms. although cdm is now generating capital flows in the order of several billions of dollars per year, and gef has spent several billions of dollars over the past 10 years (tirpak et al., 2007; tirpak and adams, 2008), this is still a small amount compared with the additional us$100-200 billion that is estimated to be needed per year to invest in clean energy, improved energy access, and making development less vulnerable to climate change (world bank, 2006a; unfccc, 2007a). the unfccc adaptation fund, to be filled by a 2% surcharge on cdm project financing, is not likely to generate capital flows of this magnitude either. the main contribution needs to come from development financing and private investments, both domestic and international (sussman and helme, 2004; miller, 2008). the world bank's clean energy and the sustainable development framework is a first attempt to generate such a leveraging mechanism (world bank, 2006a).
What should be remembered in order to perform the estimation of the variance with a re-sampling method?
that the statistic has been obtained by means of a stratified sample, and that we need to express it as a combination of indices in separate strata
What happens as a result of sample weights being estimated in the survery?
this complicates excessively the procedure
What did index estimate for?
the variable "growth of the business," standard errors and confidence intervals following different estimation methods
we note that the variance is larger than the variance obtained for a simple random sample design. in order to perform the estimation of the variance with a re-sampling method, we should remember that the statistic has been obtained by means of a stratified sample, and that we need to express it as a combination of indices in separate strata. at the same time, we need to keep it in mind that the sample weights are estimated in the same survey, and this complicates excessively the procedure. to summarize, in order to compare the standard errors obtained by means of different methods, in table 3 and 4 we show the values for two of the main variables included in the survey: "growth of the business" and "the new orders". table 3. index estimated for the variable "growth of the business," standard errors and confidence intervals following different estimation methods
Van Vuuren et al. 2012b and Kriegler et al. 2012 proposed that a scenario framework should be based on which factors?
the trends in human development in relation to the drivers of climate change, the capacity to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, and the vulnerability and capacity to adapt to climate change. van vuuren et al. 2012b and kriegler et al. 2012 proposed that a scenario framework should be based on these factors
What should be the number of scenarios?
the number of scenarios should be as small as possible
Should the framework support uncertainty analysis?
5. support uncertainty analysis. the framework should be capable of characterizing the range of uncertainty in the costs and other implications of mitigation, adaptation and impacts among alternative potential climate futures
the trends in human development in relation to the drivers of climate change, the capacity to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, and the vulnerability and capacity to adapt to climate change. van vuuren et al. 2012b and kriegler et al. 2012 proposed that a scenario framework should be based on these factors. other criteria that are important for a useful scenario framework include that it should be: 1. incorporate the rcps. the rcps were developed to explore climate change under different levels of forcing in the first step of the scenario development process. therefore, a new framework should incorporate these pathways. 2. streamlined the number of scenarios should be as small as possible. 3. comprehensive. the framework needs to cover an adequate set of key variables required in iam and iavanalyses, and to span a broad range of possible future climates and development pathways 4. comparable the scenario set should facilitate comparison of different studies by providing common assumptions about climate outcomes and socio-economic developments. this will support the synthesis and assessment of results regarding climate change, impacts, adaptation and mitigation at multiple scales. 5. support uncertainty analysis. the framework should be capable of characterizing the range of uncertainty in the costs and other implications of mitigation, adaptation and impacts among alternative potential climate futures. 6. scalable scenarios should provide enough information at the scale of large world regions to support development of assumptions for studies at finer scales. similarly, scenarios should include nearand long-term future conditions, the former providing links to ongoing trends and planning horizons and the latter including plausible largescale divergences in key driving factors. 7. versatile the scenario set should provide enough structure to facilitate consistency, and offer context and calibration points for iav and mitigation analyses, but also offer flexibility for defining details relevant for sectors and regions in particular studies. 8. appropriate for social, institutional, governance and policy analysis. the framework should not only emphasize quantitative model-based analysis, but also be relevant for social science research. 2.2 the scenario matrix approach as an overall organizing principle the two factors introduced in the previous section as organizing principles for the new framework (the level of climate change and socio-economic developments) determine to a large degree the ability to mitigate and/or adapt and the associated costs. figure 1 shows how these sets of
How did our forefathers keep their store their food during the winter months
our forefathers cooled their drinks, food, brows and rooms by cutting the ice off ponds and rivers, or scraping it from mountain sides, in winter and storing it in underground ice-houses through the spring
What did people use to cool them selves before the invention of air conditioning?
today we associate coolth with switching on an air conditioner but 2000 years before this modern miracle existed people feasted on ice-cream in the scorching assyrian summers
How long have humans been able to store ice for use in heating and cooling?
a very wellkept secret today is that, since the dawn of recorded history, we have been able to store the cold of the winter months to reuse it in the heat of summer in the form of ice
in a warming world the ability to stay cool is vital. today we associate coolth with switching on an air conditioner but 2000 years before this modern miracle existed people feasted on ice-cream in the scorching assyrian summers. even in yazd, if it became too hot in summer a boy could be sent out to get the family an iced sherbet, made with ice from one of the great ice-houses of the city. just as heat and coolth are stored in the earth and the fabric of buildings, so it can be stored in ice, for years. a very wellkept secret today is that, since the dawn of recorded history, we have been able to store the cold of the winter months to reuse it in the heat of summer in the form of ice. our forefathers cooled their drinks, food, brows and rooms by cutting the ice off ponds and rivers, or scraping it from mountain sides, in winter and storing it in underground ice-houses through the spring. the ice-houses were opened in summer to provide ice for the kitchen, the invalid, the ambassador's salon, the greenhouse and the dining table. 8
Where Mangondi Village is situated?
mangondi village is situated within vhembe district, limpopo province, in the north-east region of south africa
For what Limpopo Province is known for?
limpopo province is known for its livestock farming in the northern, drier parts, timber plantations in the southern areas, the kruger national park game reserve in the east, and for its fruit industry in the central zone, where vhembe district is located
which fruits largescale  commercial fruit farms produce ?
largescale commercial fruit farms produce mangoes, bananas, macadamia nuts and avocados
mangondi village is situated within vhembe district, limpopo province, in the north-east region of south africa. parts of vhembe district formed the venda homeland, established under apartheid, where black households were relocated to restricted areas. limpopo province is known for its livestock farming in the northern, drier parts, timber plantations in the southern areas, the kruger national park game reserve in the east, and for its fruit industry in the central zone, where vhembe district is located. largescale commercial fruit farms produce mangoes, bananas, macadamia nuts and avocados. mangondi is a village of 400 households and around 2,000 people. among vhembe villages, it is not particularly vulnerable. it has good access to the nearest town, thohoyandou (14 km away), it is near to a river that provides a constant source of water, and it receives enough annual precipitation for rainfed agriculture and livestock production, which most households engage in to some extent. employment, both formal (in nearby and distant towns) and informal, provides income for many households, as do social grants (pensions, child, foster care and disability grants). of the 51 people interviewed, 20 households had a member engaged in formal employment within the province and 7 had members working in gauteng. twentysix of the 51 respondents indicated that someone in their household was receiving a state grant. many previously disadvantaged farmers in the area are engaging in commercial agricultural operations, supported by increased access to resources such as irrigation, though often through donor or government sponsored projects. although there has been an increase in productivity among many of these farmers, they still face many constraints. a key constraint is the high climate variability, with
What does this survey show?
our survey shows that carbon capability is limited along all three dimensions of this construct, namely decision--making (knowledge, skills, motivation, judgment); individual behavior or practices; and broader civic and community engagement
What does this survey demonstrate, consistent with previous literature?
consistent with previous literature on public engagement with climate change and carbon, we find that carbon is not a salient consideration in everyday decision--making, that misperceptions exist, and that the disparity between knowledge and behaviour (the 'value--action gap') would suggest certain barriers constrain the ability of even knowledgeable and motivated individuals to act
What does the low update of alternatives to driving & flying reflect?
the low uptake of alternatives to driving and flying, for example, likely reflects structural and cultural barriers to behavior change (lorenzoni et al 2007), while limited civic and community engagement point to a perceived lack of opportunities for
our survey shows that carbon capability is limited along all three dimensions of this construct, namely decision--making (knowledge, skills, motivation, judgment); individual behavior or practices; and broader civic and community engagement. consistent with previous literature on public engagement with climate change and carbon, we find that carbon is not a salient consideration in everyday decision--making, that misperceptions exist, and that the disparity between knowledge and behaviour (the 'value--action gap') would suggest certain barriers constrain the ability of even knowledgeable and motivated individuals to act. the low uptake of alternatives to driving and flying, for example, likely reflects structural and cultural barriers to behavior change (lorenzoni et al 2007), while limited civic and community engagement point to a perceived lack of opportunities for,
What have many studies suggested?
many studies have suggested that climate change will result in lower water levels for the great lakes, with consequences for municipal water supplies, navigation, hydroelectric power generation, recreation and natural ecosystems
What does climate change affect as well as groundwater?
climate change affects not only the quantity of surface water but also that of groundwater
What is unfortunate reality despite groundwater importance?
despite groundwater's importance, recharge rates for groundwater across the country are virtually unknown, groundwater dynamics are poorly understood,(20)and research on the impacts of climate change remains limited
many studies have suggested that climate change will result in lower water levels for the great lakes, with consequences for municipal water supplies, navigation, hydroelectric power generation, recreation and natural ecosystems. although summer stream flows are generally expected to decline, many researchers project a corresponding increase in winter flows. this is because warmer winters would increase the frequency of mid-winter thaws and rain-on-snow events, a trend that is already evident on the upper saint john river.(15)this, in turn, would increase the risk of winter flooding in many regions as a result of high flows and severe ice jams.(16)for example, on the grand river of southern ontario, researchers project that warmer temperatures and increased precipitation will extend the risk of severe flooding to the months of january and february.(17)however, since snow accumulation will likely be reduced by frequent, small melt events throughout the winter, the magnitude of spring flooding will likely decline. similar patterns are anticipated for snowmelt-dominated rivers across much of southern canada. climate change affects not only the quantity of surface water but also that of groundwater. every region of canada is reliant, to some degree, on groundwater. for example, the entire population of prince edward island relies on groundwater for potable water, while approximately 90% of the rural population in ontario, manitoba and saskatchewan depend on groundwater resources.(18, 19)despite groundwater's importance, recharge rates for groundwater across the country are virtually unknown, groundwater dynamics are poorly understood,(20)and research on the impacts of climate change remains limited.(6)
How is normalization by Efr is possible?
normalization by efr is possible because mean errors are significantly larger than 0 in the set of metrics considered here
What do the different colors in Figure 1 represent?
in figure 1, values of e0 mfr< 0 (i.e., models with smaller errors than the mean error) are shaded in blue and values of e0 mfr> 0 in red. the black horizontal line separates the metrics computed for cloud fraction, precipitation rate, and cloud radiative effect from those computed for top-of-atmosphere fluxes
What do the areas of reddish color in every column indicate?
first, although some models agree well with observations in many aspects of the simulation, all models have their weak areas, as indicated by areas of reddish color in every column
normalization by efr is possible because mean errors are significantly larger than 0 in the set of metrics considered here. in figure 1, values of e0 mfr< 0 (i.e., models with smaller errors than the mean error) are shaded in blue and values of e0 mfr> 0 in red. the black horizontal line separates the metrics computed for cloud fraction, precipitation rate, and cloud radiative effect from those computed for top-of-atmosphere fluxes. several conclusions regarding the cmip3 models can be drawn from figure 1. first, although some models agree well with observations in many aspects of the simulation, all models have their weak areas, as indicated by areas of reddish color in every column. second, in almost all cases, the ipcc mean model is closer to the observations than any of the individual models. gtd2007 note both of these behaviors across a much wider range of metrics in the 20th century simulations. in most cases the relative performance of individual models across this set of metrics does not depend strongly on the verification data set (i.e., the two triangles in each box are typically close in shade), implying that all simulations of clouds, radiation, and precipitation differ markedly from the observations regardless of the data set used to define climatology. finally, we note that a model's relative performance with respect to any given metric is not especially sensitive to whether the model is run with specified sea surface temperatures or using a dynamic ocean and 20th century forcings. the performance of the alternative models provide a useful point of comparison to the results from the cmip3 climate models. the results from ecmwf reflect, in part, the effects of model development over time. era-40 was
what is the relationship between the relative entropy and the sensitivity of the model?
it is found that there is an inverse relationship between relative entropy and the sensitivity of the model to doubling of the concentration of co2. the models that have lower values of relative entropy, hence have higher fidelity in simulating the present climate, produce higher values of global warming for a doubling of co2
relative entropy, which is a measure of the difference between two probability distributions, has been calculated for the simulations of the climate of the 20th century from 13 climate models and the observed surface air temperature during the past 100 years. this quantity is used as a measure of model fidelity: a small value of relative entropy indicates that a given model's distribution is close to the observed. it is found that there is an inverse relationship between relative entropy and the sensitivity of the model to doubling of the concentration of co2. the models that have lower values of relative entropy, hence have higher fidelity in simulating the present climate, produce higher values of global warming for a doubling of co2. this suggests that the projected global warming due to increasing co2 is likely to be closer to the highest projected estimates among the current generation of climate models. citation: shukla, j., t. delsole, m. fennessy, j. kinter, and d. paolino (2006), climate model fidelity and projections of climate change, geophys. res. lett. 33 l07702, doi:10.1029/2005gl025579.
In crop irrigation systems, why should nitrogen loading be checked?
nitrogen loading must be checked to avoid excess nitrogen
What is the objective in crop irrigation systems?
in crop irrigation systems the objective is to supply the wastewater to the soil in quantities compatible with the nutrient requirements of the crops
Name four methods that can be used when irrigating with wastewater.
the irrigation with wastewater can be done by flooding, furrows, sprinkler and dripping
crop irrigation systems main objective: water reuse for crop production (wastewater treatment is an additional objective). the systems are designed to apply sufficient wastewater to meet crop irrigation requirements. loading rates are based on the crop irrigation requirement and the application efficiency of the distribution system. nitrogen loading must be checked to avoid excess nitrogen. in crop irrigation systems the objective is to supply the wastewater to the soil in quantities compatible with the nutrient requirements of the crops. however, initially the microbiological and biochemical characteristics of the sewage should be evaluated, taking into consideration the type of crop, soil, irrigation system and the form in which the product will be used or consumed. only after the verification that the sewage meets the conditions specified by the health standards should the evaluation of the chemical components be considered (mattos, 1998). figure 4.15 presents a flowsheet of a slow-rate system. the irrigation with wastewater can be done by flooding, furrows, sprinkler and dripping. overview of wastewater treatment systems 193
What is the consequence of city's growing prominence?
the construction of a large number of tall buildings in the city
What problem we have for construction of very tall buildings
tall buildings can block light and raise the city's temperatures
Why developers don't want to build shorter?
proposal is unlikely to please developers. land prices have risen as high as us 1500 (rmb 12
but a consequence of the city's growing prominence has been a steep rise in land values, which in turn has contributed to the construction of a large number of tall buildings in the city. now, with a growing number of civil court cases alleging that tall buildings can block light and raise the city's temperatures, it has been proposed that buildings should not exceed 30 storeys. the proposal is unlikely to please developers. land prices have risen as high as us 1500 (rmb 12 000) per square metre. 26 there are also concerns that the quality of some tall buildings is not high enough.
Explain Each climate system and components?
each climate system component has its prototypical example of an unresolved process that may strongly influence the global climate system, ranging from eddy activity within ocean models, to ice streams within ice sheet models, to surface hydrological processes within land system models, to cloud processes within atmosphere models
Explain new demands?
these new demands will almost certainly result in the develop of multiresolution schemes that are able, at least regionally, to faithfully simulate these fine-scale processes
Explain SCVTs allow?
scvts allow for the generation of highquality voronoi diagrams and delaunay triangulations
during the next decade and beyond, climate system models will be challenged to resolve scales and processes that are far beyond their current scope. each climate system component has its prototypical example of an unresolved process that may strongly influence the global climate system, ranging from eddy activity within ocean models, to ice streams within ice sheet models, to surface hydrological processes within land system models, to cloud processes within atmosphere models. these new demands will almost certainly result in the develop of multiresolution schemes that are able, at least regionally, to faithfully simulate these fine-scale processes. spherical centroidal voronoi tessellations (scvts) offer one potential path toward the development of a robust, multiresolution climate system model components. scvts allow for the generation of highquality voronoi diagrams and delaunay triangulations
What is it thought that the biggest change in AI epidemiology  resulting from climate change will be brought about by?
changes in the distribution, composition and migration behaviour of wild bird populations that harbor the genetic pool of ai viruses and in which natural ai transmission cycles take place
What does HPAI remain largely confined to?
domestic poultry
What has HPAI been doing?
spreading worldwide successfully in a very wide range of climatic conditions
in conclusion, it is thought that the biggest change in ai epidemiology resulting from climate change will be brought about by changes in the distribution, composition and migration behaviour of wild bird populations that harbor the genetic pool of ai viruses and in which natural ai transmission cycles take place. in contrast, hpai, which remains largely confined to domestic poultry, has been spreading worldwide successfully in a very wide range of climatic conditions. although the effect of the environment on hpai transmission and persistence is as yet poorly understood, these observations support the idea that climate change will have very little effect on hpai epidemiology. however, we may anticipate indirect effects,
Why is the choice of a default option important when presenting a choice with multiple options?
because the default option requires no action, it is always easier, and so people tend to accept it whether or not they would have chosen it if it were not the default option
How can policymakers influence individual decisions concerning natural resources?
by making socially beneficial choices the default option, policymakers can positively influence individual decisions concerning natural resources like air or water
How can green sources of electricity be promoted?
in the first laboratory experiment, more participants chose the green utility when it was the default than when the "grey" utility was the default. in the second laboratory experiment, participants displayed an attachment to their default, asking for more money to give up green electricity than the amount they would have paid for it
when presenting a choice with multiple options, it is important to pay attention to the default option. if option a is the default and a person wants a, it is already chosen. but if a person wants b, he or she will have to make an effort to switch from a to b. because the default option requires no action, it is always easier, and so people tend to accept it whether or not they would have chosen it if it were not the default option. by making socially beneficial choices the default option, policymakers can positively influence individual decisions concerning natural resources like air or water.65 page 38 shows an example of this principle in action. one german study showed that changing defaults could promote green sources of energy. the study also found that the way information is presented, specifically for the default option, can strongly affect people's choice of electricity, and that they tend to use the kind of electricity that is offered to them as the default. in the first laboratory experiment, more participants chose the green utility when it was the default than when the "grey" utility was the default. in the second laboratory experiment, participants displayed an attachment to their default, asking for more money to give up green electricity than the amount they would have paid for it.66
Define social construction of a quasi reality?
the social construction of a quasi reality" the following extracts from a tyndall centre working paper provide an interesting insight into the work carried out from the public purse, to promote global warming in the public perception
When the Tyndal Centre was established?
the tyndal centre was established in 2000
Who is a senior advisor to the government on climate matters?
executive director is professor mike hulme, from university of east anglia
"the social construction of a quasi reality" the following extracts from a tyndall centre working paper provide an interesting insight into the work carried out from the public purse, to promote global warming in the public perception. it is revealing that that the authors highlight the uncertainty and contention surrounding climate change and yet the public presentation is that there is scientific consensus and no longer any doubt. this approach, coupled with extensive "feeding" of the media, is obviously effective. the tyndal centre was established in 2000. it comprises nine uk research institutions and is core funded by nerc, esrc epsrc, with additional support from the dti. executive director is professor mike hulme, from university of east anglia. he is a senior advisor to the government on climate matters. the tyndal council has 20 members, with an eleven member research management team. its advisory board has 22 members comprising:
What is the long-term perspective on past changes based on?
our long-term perspective on past changes is based on recently developed global proxy temperature reconstructions of the past 20,000 years30,31
What does the transition from the peak of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) ~21,000 years ago to the start of the present Holocene interglaciation 11,700 years ago represent?
the transition from the peak of the last glacial maximum (lgm) ~21,000 years ago to the start of the present holocene interglaciation 11,700 years ago represents the last major episode of global warming in earth's history, when atmospheric co2 concentrations increased by ~80 ppm (from ~190 ppm to ~270 ppm)32-34 (fig. 1b) and global mean temperature rose ~4 degc
How helpful is the palaeoclimate record?
the palaeoclimate record helps to place our understanding of the size and rapidity of recent and future climate changes in the context of earth's natural climate variability
the palaeoclimate record helps to place our understanding of the size and rapidity of recent and future climate changes in the context of earth's natural climate variability. our long-term perspective on past changes is based on recently developed global proxy temperature reconstructions of the past 20,000 years30,31. these reconstructions document the period of warming that ended the last ice age, and the subsequent interglacial interval of relative climate stability during which human civilization emerged and diversified (fig. 1c). the transition from the peak of the last glacial maximum (lgm) ~21,000 years ago to the start of the present holocene interglaciation 11,700 years ago represents the last major episode of global warming in earth's history, when atmospheric co2 concentrations increased by ~80 ppm (from ~190 ppm to ~270 ppm)32-34 (fig. 1b) and global mean temperature rose ~4 degc
In which years is Lockwood Horticulture rated?
given that successful establishment of introduced species is strongly influenced by propagule pressure (lockwood et al. 2005) - estimated for horticultural plants as the number of nurseries where a species is sold (dehnen-schmutz et al. 2007
Ecosystem description of natural habitats?
restricted our analysis to (sub-) species that were sold in at least 25 plant nurseries (~10% of our sample). this reduced the data matrix to 575 (sub-) species, including both natives and exotics, and focused the analysis on a set of species particularly likely to escape from gardens into natural habitats given suitable conditions. only 8 of these 575 were listed as sub-species, so we did not conduct separate analysis for species vs. sub-species; henceforth we refer to all (sub-)species simply as species for simplicity. for all species native to europe (n 357, 62%), we calculated the distance (in kilometers) between the northern edge of the 'commercial range' (defined as the northern most plant nursery in which the plant was sold) and the northern edge of the 'natural range', estimated from regional floras (jalas and suominen 1972-1994; hulten and fries 1986). to test for the influence of individual nurseries on the determination of commercial range edges, we recalculated these using the mean latitude of the three and five most northerly plant nurseries
Explain the 'margin' of the natural range (Jalas and Sumominen?
jalas and suominen 1972-1994; hulten and fries 1986). to test for the influence of individual nurseries on the determination of commercial range edges, we recalculated these using the mean latitude of the three and five most northerly plant nurseries. finally, to test whether certain families were overor under-represented in commercially grown species relative to the broader native european flora, we conducted a chi-square test comparing these two groups with respect to the proportions of species in each family with at least 10 species in both datasets
given that successful establishment of introduced species is strongly influenced by propagule pressure (lockwood et al. 2005) - estimated for horticultural plants as the number of nurseries where a species is sold (dehnen-schmutz et al. 2007) - we restricted our analysis to (sub-) species that were sold in at least 25 plant nurseries (~10% of our sample). this reduced the data matrix to 575 (sub-) species, including both natives and exotics, and focused the analysis on a set of species particularly likely to escape from gardens into natural habitats given suitable conditions. only 8 of these 575 were listed as sub-species, so we did not conduct separate analysis for species vs. sub-species; henceforth we refer to all (sub-)species simply as species for simplicity. for all species native to europe (n 357, 62%), we calculated the distance (in kilometers) between the northern edge of the 'commercial range' (defined as the northern most plant nursery in which the plant was sold) and the northern edge of the 'natural range', estimated from regional floras (jalas and suominen 1972-1994; hulten and fries 1986). to test for the influence of individual nurseries on the determination of commercial range edges, we recalculated these using the mean latitude of the three and five most northerly plant nurseries. finally, to test whether certain families were overor under-represented in commercially grown species relative to the broader native european flora, we conducted a chi-square test comparing these two groups with respect to the proportions of species in each family with at least 10 species in both datasets.
How the GCMs divide the earth's surface?
gcms effectively divide the earth's surface into a discrete grid, where there is variation in climate across discrete grid cells, but climate statistics are homogenous within each cell
as described earlier, gcms effectively divide the earth's surface into a discrete grid, where there is variation in climate across discrete grid cells, but climate statistics are homogenous within each cell. for example, if one uses a climate model that provides output on a monthly basis, it is assumed that temperatures within the month and among all locations within the grid cell are constant.15such temporal and spatial aggregation might be inappropriate and produce biased impact estimates. while many models are being run at a resolution that is higher than 2  2 degree (for the next ipcc [ar5] report), most of the economic impact studies in the existing literature use model output at a 2  2-degree or coarser resolution. while a 2  2-degree cell may be " small " from the perspective of the global climate, it is not small from the perspective of human systems. for example, a 2  2-degree grid spacing at the equator is equivalent to a grid width of 222 kilometers (138 miles). it is not hard to imagine that a stretch of this length will have vastly varying climates (e.g., driving east from san diego's coastal
What has emerged on the need for adaptation to climate change?
a new international consensus has emerged on the need for adaptation to climate change
What could distort the development process & how?
hasty actions could distort the development process, and might even have perverse and unintended effects, including increases in vulnerability
What Two questions emerge and are the central concern of this paper?
1. how can the legitimate concern of developing countries to reduce their vulnerability to climate change be recognized as part of regular development work, without losing its special status as a global environmental problem? 2. how can climate change adaptation be "mainstreamed" into development activities and programmes in a manner which strengthens and does not distort the development process
a new international consensus has emerged on the need for adaptation to climate change. while there is widespread agreement on the need to move forward vigorously on the adaptation agenda, there is something of a quandary about how best to proceed. hasty actions could distort the development process, and might even have perverse and unintended effects, including increases in vulnerability. while priority attention for adaptation is indeed needed, we argue that it is wise to look before you leap adaptation is likely to be more successful to the extent that it is incorporated into the sustainable development process, and recognizes that response to current climate variability and extremes is a necessary, if not sufficient, part of an effective adaptation strategy. moreover, adaptation is not only a matter of projects and measures but also involves the evaluation and development of policy. two questions emerge and are the central concern of this paper: 1. how can the legitimate concern of developing countries to reduce their vulnerability to climate change be recognized as part of regular development work, without losing its special status as a global environmental problem? 2. how can climate change adaptation be "mainstreamed" into development activities and programmes in a manner which strengthens and does not distort the development process? a short answer to these questions is to develop a climate risk management approach the main message of this paper is an elaboration of this idea, and suggestions for its further development. we suggest that climate risk assessment should become a routine component of bank activities. this does not apply to all bank activities, only to those where there are significant climate risks. as a first step, we thus propose a screening tool to select which projects merit further risk assessment. at the country level the risks of climate change and variability should be recognized along side other risks that are routinely assessed, such as environmental impacts, economic risks relating to fluctuations in exchange rates and commodity prices, or political risks like instability and social unrest. as such, they would be reflected in country assistance strategies and sector work. while these suggestions mostly fall within the scope of regular bank work, their implementation could be facilitated by the emerging international regime for climate change adaptation, in particular the financing opportunities under the climate convention. we offer some suggestions for a harmonization of the convention's global atmosphere perspective with the development concerns of the world bank and its clients (the development perspective). the bank can contribute to a further convergence of these two perspectives, which would facilitate a successful resolution of the two questions we raise about climate as a global environmental problem and the need to mainstream climate adaptation into sustainable development. our recommendations and suggestions for next steps can be summarized as follows:
is there good data on poor countries?
which is not yet suffi ciently available for poor countries
What 5 countries have been studied
india, bolivia, panama, bhutan, and tajikistan
What is modelling skewed to
eff ects on health being skewed towards developing countries
the generation of reliable, relevant, and up-to-date information will be essential to respond to the negative health eff ects of climate change. information is worthless without political will or institutional capacity; however, without information, political will or institutional capacity will achieve little. this challenge is about the generation and dissemination of relevant information about the public health eff ects of climate change and how to address them. in developed countries, at least, general awareness of the issue seems well established. yet, much more detailed and specifi c information is necessary if an intelligent response is to be made. information pertaining to specifi c regions, countries, and localities is an important resource, which is not yet suffi ciently available for poor countries.17 building the capacity of governments and universities in the poorest countries could take a long time to accomplish, therefore new operational systems for vulnerability assessments are needed especially in africa and asia. south america and caribbean countries have done much to assess the eff ect of climate change, but a lot remains to be done. who has identifi ed key gaps in knowledge--notably, a lack of region-specifi c projections of changes in health-related exposures and a lack of research on health outcomes concerning various future emissions and adaptation scenarios. who has also noted the issues of models that generalise health outcomes between locations because important local factors, such as transmission dynamics, might not be well captured. varying capacity for research and adaptation in low-income and middle-income countries is likely to deepen the inequality of health eff ects. the geographical distribution of the 16 national health impact assessments of climate change done between 2001 and 2007 is indicative. only fi ve assessments were in low-income or middle-income countries--india, bolivia, panama, bhutan, and tajikistan--and none were in africa. local capacities for research must be strengthened with local responses to climate change. little modelling has been done outside developed countries despite the eff ects on health being skewed towards developing countries. information that is reliable, accurate, and disseminated is fundamental for eff ective adaptation and to avoid the so-called adaptation apartheid. for example, heatwaves are silent killers. although we have good data for the eff ects of heatwaves in the usa and europe, almost no reliable data for heatwave-induced mortality exist in africa or south asia.94,95 disease monitoring, surveillance, and health early warning systems depend on reliable information provided by meteorological stations worldwide. however, the number of these stations in africa, for example, is eight times lower than the minimum recommended by the world meteorological organisation, and reporting rates are the lowest in the world.96 a key challenge is the fi nancial and technical constraints that prevent developing countries from wide-scale implementation of these stations.14
What advantages does bottom sludge provide?
which usually presents higher activity and better settleability
What are dangers of including sludge in the effluent?
since this wastage increases the concentration of cod, bod and suspended solids in the effluent
What is a way to remove sludge from the wastage?
should there be a drying bed, the tendency will be to apply a large wastage, decreasing the sludge mass in the system from a value close to that of the maximum mass to a value a little higher than that of the minimum mass. thus, the sludge wastage frequency is reduced to a minimum (and so is the work related to this wastage
the possible disadvantage to waste part of the bottom sludge, which usually presents higher activity and better settleability, can be compensated by the lower wastage volumes required and a consequent economy in the dewatering devices. additionally, and depending on the quality of the preliminary treatment that precedes the reactor, the bottom sludge can accumulate inert solids, such as sand, which should be periodically discarded from the reactor. consequently, the wastage of bottom sludge from the reactor, in small amounts and in a well-managed form, can bring important benefits to the treatment system. operational control of anaerobic reactors 787 (b) wastage of excess sludge an important operational aspect in systems with dispersed growth, such as the uasb reactor, is the wastage of excess sludge. in this case, it is necessary that the sludge mass is maintained between a minimum (dictated by the need to have a sufficient treatment capacity in the system to digest the influent organic load) and a maximum (dependent on the sludge retention capacity of the system) value. the wastage of sludge together with the effluent should be minimised, since this wastage increases the concentration of cod, bod and suspended solids in the effluent. on the other hand, the wastage frequency will be dictated by the nature of the dewatering process. in case of a mechanical process, such as a centrifuge, the tendencywillbeforadailywastagewhiletheoperatorispresentintheplant.should there be a drying bed, the tendency will be to apply a large wastage, decreasing the sludge mass in the system from a value close to that of the maximum mass to a value a little higher than that of the minimum mass. thus, the sludge wastage frequency is reduced to a minimum (and so is the work related to this wastage), while a good performance and operational stability of the digester are ensured. the following routine can be followed to establish the wastage frequency and magnitude (chernicharo et al ., 1999):
What is one country that is given as an example as having seen a dramatic increase in emissions?
j. timmons roberts and bradley c. parks, a climate of injustice: global inequality, north-south politics, and climate policy (cambridge, ma: mit press, 2007). 9 on the history of the climate negotiations, see joyeeta gupta, the history of global climate governance (cambridge: cambridge university press, 2014). non-annex i countries, some of which (e.g. china) had seen their emissions increase dramatically in the years since kyoto
What is one reason why the Kyoto protocol does not offer a viable approach to mitigating climate change?
there are several reasons why the kyoto protocol does not offer a viable approach to mitigating climate change. first, by setting a static emissions reduction target, the regime failed to create dynamic incentives to decarbonize the economy. while some countries (e.g. canada) failed to meet the kyoto targets, others reduced emissions without making any effort: such was the case for russia and other post-soviet states that experienced de-industrialization after the collapse of communism. second, agreeing new targets for a second commitment period after 2012 proved difficult because the focus on legally binding targets had turned the climate negotiations into a distributional conflict over respective shares of the mitigation burden. industrialized countries that had struggled or failed to comply with kyoto were reluctant to subject themselves again to another set of rigid targets: as a result, canada withdrew from the treaty while japan and russia declared they would not enter into new commitments. third, the rigid divide between annex i and non-annex i countries had made it difficult to deal with the rapidly rising emissions of emerging economies that did not want to stifle their future economic development by imposing limits on future emissions
j. timmons roberts and bradley c. parks, a climate of injustice: global inequality, north-south politics, and climate policy (cambridge, ma: mit press, 2007). 9 on the history of the climate negotiations, see joyeeta gupta, the history of global climate governance (cambridge: cambridge university press, 2014). non-annex i countries, some of which (e.g. china) had seen their emissions increase dramatically in the years since kyoto. this was not how it worked out, however. in the end, the annex i countries were able collectively to comply with the treaty's provisions, but this did little to slow the rise in global emissions. there are several reasons why the kyoto protocol does not offer a viable approach to mitigating climate change. first, by setting a static emissions reduction target, the regime failed to create dynamic incentives to decarbonize the economy. while some countries (e.g. canada) failed to meet the kyoto targets, others reduced emissions without making any effort: such was the case for russia and other post-soviet states that experienced de-industrialization after the collapse of communism. second, agreeing new targets for a second commitment period after 2012 proved difficult because the focus on legally binding targets had turned the climate negotiations into a distributional conflict over respective shares of the mitigation burden. industrialized countries that had struggled or failed to comply with kyoto were reluctant to subject themselves again to another set of rigid targets: as a result, canada withdrew from the treaty while japan and russia declared they would not enter into new commitments. third, the rigid divide between annex i and non-annex i countries had made it difficult to deal with the rapidly rising emissions of emerging economies that did not want to stifle their future economic development by imposing limits on future emissions. although seen as a failure at the time, the 2009 copenhagen conference (cop-15) succeeded in laying the ground for a new approach that has now come to fruition in the paris agreement.10 after two weeks of fruitless negotiations by diplomats and regulatory experts at cop-15, a select group of heads of state hammered out a political compromise deal, the copenhagen accord, which foreshadowed many of the elements now contained in the paris agreement. sidestepping the thorny issue of internationally agreed and legally binding emissions targets, barack obama for the united states, wen jiabao for china,
what is the disease that it's rare in Canada?
lyme disease
How the lyme disease can expand its range?
warmer weather and the northward migration of animals and birds that carry infective ticks
observed trends in lyme disease and west nile virus illustrate how quickly new and emerging diseases can spread. for example, lyme disease has extended its range significantly across the united states since the 1980s, and is now considered to be a major public health concern.(59)although the disease is still rare in canada, warmer weather and the northward migration of animals and birds that carry infective ticks could further expand its range.(38)the recent, extremely rapid spread of west nile virus across the united states and canada, although not due to climate change, is another example of how quickly and widely a newly introduced virus can expand its range. conditions expected to result from climate change could further facilitate the spread of the virus northward.(38)
How do cloud-related radiation errors occur?
cloud-related radiation errors can result either from an erroneous simulation of the clouds (too little or too much, at the wrong altitude, or with the wrong phase) or from errors in the way the cloud-radiation interaction itself is described
What does Figure 14 show?
figure 14 shows pdfs of radiation errors split into cloudy and clear situations for winter and summer, here defined as november-april and may-september, respectively
How are clear and cloudy situations distinguished?
clear and cloudy situations are distinguished based on thresholds in the total cloud water path
cloud-related radiation errors can result either from an erroneous simulation of the clouds (too little or too much, at the wrong altitude, or with the wrong phase) or from errors in the way the cloud-radiation interaction itself is described. even perfectly simulated clouds are not sufficient if their impact on the radiation is described erroneously. figure 14 shows pdfs of radiation errors split into cloudy and clear situations for winter and summer, here defined as november-april and may-september, respectively. for shortwave radiation (fig. 14a), only summer is considered. clear and cloudy situations are distinguished based on thresholds in the total cloud water path. somewhat arbitrarily, cloud-free conditions are here assumed for cwp  5 g m 2; cwp  20 g m 2
What is the meaning of CCB?
california-riverside's center for conservation biology
What is conducted by CCB researchers?
online databases and museum records, review of environmental technical reports, and extensive field surveys 
Which species was exclude records?
gnatcatchers and butterflies
the university of california-riverside's center for conservation biology (ccb) has an extensive database of plant and animal species occurrence data for southern california compiled from government databases (e.g. united states fish and wildlife service, california natural diversity database), online databases and museum records, review of environmental technical reports, and extensive field surveys conducted by ccb researchers. before modeling, we screened datasets to exclude records of gnatcatchers and butterflies that were spatially imprecise 4 500 m uncertainty) or spatially redundant o 500 m between adjacent species locations). we also excluded species records that had been converted to development as indicated by a land cover-land use map. for both species, we randomly selected 70% of the presence-only records to construct the models (calibration dataset) and withheld the remaining 30% to
How many tree growth locations are in Figure 1?
387 locations
How many tree increment cores are in each site?
20 or more
What does the climate sensitivity review of tree growth in this network focus on?
common variability that encompasses interannual, decadal and multidecadal to century timescales
tree-ring data we examine the climate sensitivities of tree growth at a total of 387 locations (figure 1), looking separately at chronologies of the two most commonly used dendroclimatic growth parameters: maximum latewood density (mxd) and total ring width (trw). each chronology is a time series of annually averaged indices derived from measurements on a number of tree increment cores (around 20 or more per site). here, the indices are residuals from a generalizedexponentialfunction, or 'hugershoff', tted through each original series of measurements (bra"ker, 1981; cook et al ., 1990). this indexing (or 'standardization') removes most of the multicentury-timescale variance, which mainly results from internal tree-growth processes that typically produce narrower and less dense rings as a tree ages. such standardization also results in the loss of long-timescale variance that might be caused by changing climate (cook et al ., 1995; briffa et al ., 1996). hence, our review of the climate sensitivities of tree growth within this network focuses on common variability that encompasses interannual, decadal and multidecadal to century timescales, but does
What do RSS trend values show?
the rss trend values also show similar characteristic large western himalayan warming compared to smaller trend (positive) over the eastern himalayas and the hindu kush region, e.g., the annual mean (may) trend is 58% (107%) and 26% (80%) higher than the eastern himalayan and hindu kush, respectively
Are RSS trend values lower or higher than stratospheric cooling corrected values?
it should be noted that, in general, the rss trend values are substantially lower than the stratospheric cooling corrected values (following fu et al. [2004]) and can be partially attributed to the stratospheric cooling influence in the msu channel 2 weighting function
What do the trends actually highlight?
however, the trends reported here are not carried out to highlight the differences or reconcile the two temperature data sets but simply show that the concentrated western himalayan warming is of local scale and not representative of a widespread tropospheric temperature trend over the entire hkht region
we also provide temperature trends obtained directly from the rss data (table 1), i.e., before correcting for stratospheric cooling influence. the rss trend values also show similar characteristic large western himalayan warming compared to smaller trend (positive) over the eastern himalayas and the hindu kush region, e.g., the annual mean (may) trend is 58% (107%) and 26% (80%) higher than the eastern himalayan and hindu kush, respectively. it should be noted that, in general, the rss trend values are substantially lower than the stratospheric cooling corrected values (following fu et al. [2004]) and can be partially attributed to the stratospheric cooling influence in the msu channel 2 weighting function. however, the trends reported here are not carried out to highlight the differences or reconcile the two temperature data sets but simply show that the concentrated western himalayan warming is of local scale and not representative of a widespread tropospheric temperature trend over the entire hkht region. this strengthens the observation that, in addition to the greenhouse warming signal, the enhanced western himalayan - gangetic warming is a likely response of a localized phenomenon, e.g., aerosol solar absorption. here, figure 10. time series of the area - average annual mean (top panel) and may (bottom panel) tropospheric temperature anomaly from 1979 to 2007 over the hindu kush (solid blue), eastern himalayan (solid black), and western himalayan (solid red) regions after correction for the stratospheric cooling influence in the msu data fu et al. 2004]. the linear trend lines (dotted) and the regression equation are also shown for the three regions with same color.
Where was a coupled climate-population model for Atlantic croaker Micropogonias undulatus developed?
coastal fishery along the east coast of the united states
What does the coupled model indicate?
both exploitation and climate change significantly affect abundance and distribution of atlantic croaker
What does the yield analysis indicte?
the maximum sustainable yield will increase by 30-100
marine fisheries management strives to maintain sustainable populations while allowing exploitation. however, well-intentioned management plans may not meet this balance as most do not include the effect of climate change. ocean temperatures are expected to increase through the 21st century, which will have far-reaching and complex impacts on marine fisheries. to begin to quantify these impacts for one coastal fishery along the east coast of the united states, we develop a coupled climate-population model for atlantic croaker micropogonias undulatus ). the model is based on a mechanistic hypothesis: recruitment is determined by temperature-driven, overwinter mortality of juveniles in their estuarine habitats. temperature forecasts were obtained from 14 general circulation models simulating three co2 emission scenarios. an ensemble-based approach was used in which a multimodel average was calculated for a given co2 emission scenario to forecast the response of the population. the coupled model indicates that both exploitation and climate change significantly affect abundance and distribution of atlantic croaker. at current levels of fishing, the average (2010-2100) spawning biomass of the population is forecast to increase by 60-100 similarly, the center of the population is forecast to shift 50-100 km northward. a yield analysis, which is used to calculate benchmarks for fishery management, indicates that the maximum sustainable yield will increase by 30-100 our results demonstrate that climate effects on fisheries must be identified, understood, and incorporated into the scientific advice provided to managers if sustainable exploitation is to be achieved in a changing climate.
What are some reasons firms cannot provide reliable cost results regarding carbon mitigation activities?
one firm mentions that their reduction programme is too recent to provide reliable results, another sees problems in separating these costs from the overall operating budget, and a few state that this information is confidential
Do the questions in the survey remain the same over time?
for example, each year the questionnaire has been different as cdp added and removed certain (sub) questions, and rephrased recurring ones, leading to somewhat different responses by firms, even if the theme of a particular question remained largely the same. fo
Is emphasizing quantitative financial information useful?
however, this trend of putting more emphasis on quantitative (financial) information, has had mixed results
however, this trend of putting more emphasis on quantitative (financial) information, has had mixed results. on the one hand, as we will indicate below, it has led to improvements in disclosure of ghg emissions. on the other hand, questions that probe for an estimation of the financial impact of carbon mitigation activities have produced somewhat meagre results. to begin with, cdp asked what cost savings firms have achieved as a result of their emission reduction programmes. of the total sample of 380 firms, only 27 produced a financial figure estimating these cost savings. while most others just fail to answer the question, some give a reason for this. one firm mentions that their reduction programme is too recent to provide reliable results, another sees problems in separating these costs from the overall operating budget, and a few state that this information is confidential. similar arguments are mentioned with regard to a question on total energy costs, and then particularly that this information is confidential. nevertheless, a substantial number (123 firms) does provide an estimation of total energy costs and/or an indication of the share of energy costs as a percentage of total revenue. still, it is difficult to compare such data as the final figure depends on the methodology used to estimate these costs. several oil and electricity firms mention that part of their energy use is self-generated. since no market price is attached to this form of energy consumption, they argue that it is very complex to estimate one consolidated figure. finally, cdp asks for the total number of euets allowances received and the impact of this trading scheme on their profitability. while 76 firms disclose their total number of allowances, only a few mention the cost of compliance or the revenue from selling excess allowances. however, the common thread of the answers about the impact of the eu-ets is that the costs and/or revenues are marginal and therefore not material to profitability. besides the difficulty of disclosing financial impact in a way that does justice to the complexity of estimating such figures, the mere fact that cdp has tried to improve the questionnaire also means that it has become more difficult to make analytical and comparative sense of the firm responses over time. for example, each year the questionnaire has been different as cdp added and removed certain (sub) questions, and rephrased recurring ones, leading to somewhat different responses by firms, even if the theme of a particular question remained largely the same. for example, cdp4 contained for the first time a question about the extent and means by which firms communicate about climate change in their annual report and other channels, but just one year later this question had
What are the environmental costs of modern buildings?
that modern prestige buildings often carry a very high environmental cost, in terms of the energy they use and, in many, the risks they pose to their occupants and owners, including the financial penalties of being landed with very high cleaning and maintenance costs
What did the "disregard" for costs reflect?
reflected in the growing tendency for buildings to come in well over time and over cost on building budgets
Which audience was shocked by the contempt for the client's well-being?
this disregard for the client's welfare first shocked the british public when they were forced to pay for what turned out to be the billion-pound ' millennium dome ' fiasco
we have seen in the previous chapters that modern prestige buildings often carry a very high environmental cost, in terms of the energy they use and, in many, the risks they pose to their occupants and owners, including the financial penalties of being landed with very high cleaning and maintenance costs. this disregard for the ' cost ' of a building to its owners is reflected in the growing tendency for buildings to come in well over time and over cost on building budgets. this disregard for the client's welfare first shocked the british public when they were forced to pay for what turned out to be the billion-pound ' millennium dome ' fiasco. hackles have been kept raised by the sheer audacity of the insouciance of architects to the implications of what such costs may mean. 17 the ps 750 million design of the new wembley stadium will ultimately be reflected in the ticket price fans have to pay for a seat in the stadium. 18 the university of birmingham had to cancel its more free ebooks http://fast-file.blogspot.com
Should the samples all be taken from the same point in the column?
the samples are taken at different times, at the various sampling points along the column height
What does Example 10.2 present?
example 10.2 (adapted from wilson, 1981) presents a methodology for the determination of the removal efficiency of discrete particles based on a settling test
If the initial concentration in the column at the initial time to 0 is Co, and after a time ti, the concentration reduces to Ci at the depth zi, then what is the original suspension settling velocity of Co - Ci?
co - ci of the original suspension has settling velocities greater then zi/ (ti - to
sedimentation 431 the evaluation of the removal efficiency of the particulate matter. at the start of the test, the column should be full of a homogeneous mixture of the suspension. the samples are taken at different times, at the various sampling points along the column height. if the initial concentration in the column at the initial time to 0 is co, and after a time ti, the concentration reduces to ci at the depth zi, then co - ci of the original suspension has settling velocities greater then zi/ (ti - to). repeating this concept for different depths and times, the cumulative curve of the proportion of particles with settling velocities lower than the x-axis value can be constructed (wilson, 1981). example 10.2 (adapted from wilson, 1981) presents a methodology for the determination of the removal efficiency of discrete particles based on a settling test. example 10.2 the results of a settling test done in a suspension with particles that present discrete settling led to the values presented below. plot the cumulative profile of the settling velocity and calculate the fraction of particles removed for an overflow rate of vo 1 0 m/h.
Who gave permission for repoduction?
reproduced with permission of the copyright owner
Is further reproduction allowed or prohibited?
further reproduction prohibited without permission
What sentence was repeated 17 times and contains the word "prohibited"?
further reproduction prohibited without permission
w neil adger economic geography; oct 2003; 79, 4; research library pg. 387 reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. further reproduction prohibited without permission. reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. further reproduction prohibited without permission. reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. further reproduction prohibited without permission. reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. further reproduction prohibited without permission. reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. further reproduction prohibited without permission. reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. further reproduction prohibited without permission. reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. further reproduction prohibited without permission. reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. further reproduction prohibited without permission. reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. further reproduction prohibited without permission. reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. further reproduction prohibited without permission. reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. further reproduction prohibited without permission. reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. further reproduction prohibited without permission. reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. further reproduction prohibited without permission. reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. further reproduction prohibited without permission. reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. further reproduction prohibited without permission. reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. further reproduction prohibited without permission. reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. further reproduction prohibited without permission.
What has the focus of research on climate change in coastal areas?
in recent years, much of the climate change research on the pacific coast has focused on salmon species, owing to their importance to this region's commercial, recreational and subsistence fisheries, and to the alarming declines in the salmon catch observed since the late 1980s
in recent years, much of the climate change research on the pacific coast has focused on salmon species, owing to their importance to this region's commercial, recreational and subsistence fisheries, and to the alarming declines in the salmon catch observed since the late 1980s.(2, 19)low population sizes and survival rates of steelhead and coho salmon have caused significant fisheries reductions and closures in recent years.(20)in addition, salmon require at least two different aquatic habitats (marine and freshwater) over their life cycle, making them susceptible to a wide array of potential climate impacts, and studies have concluded that climatic forcing has been a key factor regulating northeastern pacific salmon stocks over the last 2 200 years.(21)
What shows that these patterns represent physical modes?
some indication that these patterns represent physical modes of variability is given by the fact that they have counterparts in lag correlation patterns such as those shown in fig. 1
To what extent can REOFs be interpreted as distinct physical modes of variability?
it is not clear to what extent the reofs can be interpreted as distinct physical modes of variability
How can similar wave structures be produced?
by forcing a stationary wave model with localized vorticity or heat sources
it is not clear to what extent the reofs can be interpreted as distinct physical modes of variability - something that is difficult to determine by purely statistical measures especially for rotated eofs (the percent variance explained indicates little separation in variance, ranging from 8.2% for the first to 4.1% for the fifth reof). some indication that these patterns represent physical modes of variability is given by the fact that they have counterparts in lag correlation patterns such as those shown in fig. 1. also, we will show in the next section that very similar wave structures can be produced, by forcing a stationary wave model with localized vorticity or heat sources.
For what geographical distribution of tropospheric ozone columns used for?
for ease of visual comparison we show the geographical distribution of tropospheric ozone columns from the models and tes using a tropopause one level below the ncep tropopause along with omi/mls observations
Which values are larger than OMI/MLS?
tes and modeled values are substantially larger than the omi/mls column values over most of the planet despite the higher tropopause in the latter
What is the agreement between model and TES?
there is good agreement between the model and tes, even at high latitudes, when using a common tropopause location
hence for ease of visual comparison we show the geographical distribution of tropospheric ozone columns from the models and tes using a tropopause one level below the ncep tropopause along with omi/mls observations (which lack vertical information for sampling with other tropopause definitions). the tropospheric column values in the model agree reasonably well with tes, but the tes and modeled values are substantially larger than the omi/mls column values over most of the planet despite the higher tropopause in the latter (fig. 5). there is good agreement between the model and tes, even at high latitudes, when using a common tropopause location. this indicates that the model's internal tropopause is too high at northern high latitudes and too low
What provides results of greater use to local decision makers, but introduces additional uncertainties?
downscaling of coarse-scale climate projections to regional or local scales provides results of greater use to local decision makers, but introduces additional uncertainties
How can the source of uncertainty analogous to the problem of emissions scenarios be addressed?
analogous to the problem of emissions scenarios, this source of uncertainty can be addressed by running several different models that differ in fundamental assumptions, and presenting the range of results as well as the central estimate
What is the  ''anomaly'' approach and why is it used?
because of inherent biases in many global models, it is common in the climate impacts field to calibrate climate model outputs using historical data, and then to use this calibration to adjust future climate projections. this is sometimes referred to as the ''anomaly'' approach
a fundamental source of uncertainty in projecting regional health impacts of climate change is the modeling of future climate (intergovernmental panel on climate change, ipcc, 2001 ). to evaluate potential climate changes in urban areas, recent modeling studies have sought to ''downscale'' global model results to the local scale using either dynamical or statistical approaches lynn et al., 2004 ). one promising dynamical method uses nested models, where the results of a coarse-scale model simulation are used as the initial and boundary conditions for one or more finer-scale model simulations. considerable uncertainty exists in many of the parameters and relationships embedded in these models. these include uncertainty regarding future scenarios of global greenhouse gas (ghg) emissions, which in turn depend on assumptions about population demographics, energy supply, technological innovation, policy intervention, etc. the approach used by ipcc to address this source of uncertainty is evaluation of a range of plausible scenarios for future emissions nakicenovic, 2000 ). there are further uncertainties associated with climate system models, including the mathematical representation and parameterization of physical processes, such as cloud formation and aerosol influences, the use of numerical approximation for some complex equations, intraand inter-model variability, and other factors ipcc, 2001 ). downscaling of coarse-scale climate projections to regional or local scales provides results of greater use to local decision makers, but introduces additional uncertainties. analogous to the problem of emissions scenarios, this source of uncertainty can be addressed by running several different models that differ in fundamental assumptions, and presenting the range of results as well as the central estimate. because of inherent biases in many global models, it is common in the climate impacts field to calibrate climate model outputs using historical data, and then to use this calibration to adjust future climate projections. this is sometimes referred to as the ''anomaly'' approach.
Global warming is occurring faster in?
winter than in summer
what is  likely to experience the most significant changes in their thermal environment.
insects with a hibernal diapause
what is closer to their physiological limits of high temperature and drought tolerance
tropical insects
global warming is occurring faster in winter than in summer, and is greatest at high latitudes (ipcc, 2007). thus, insects with a hibernal diapause are likely to experience the most significant changes in their thermal environment. however, tropical insects may already be closer to their physiological limits of high temperature and drought tolerance. this means that even small changes at these latitudes could have dramatic consequences on survival. tropical diapause is again utilised to span periods of seasonal adversity, and there is some evidence that changing day length can play a role in programming diapause induction (denlinger, 1986). changes in temperature, moisture, population density or food composition, however, tend to be the dominant-inducing stimuli of tropical diapause (tauber at al., 1986). unlike the temperate zone, there is considerable variation in the incidence of diapause in the tropics, mainly because seasonal cycles at low latitudes do not always produce such clear-cut changes in environmental conditions that entirely restrict continued development. this is not true of all tropical habitats, however, and there are numerous examples of prolonged and intense periods of diapause (denlinger, 1986) to survive either severe drought in the dry season, e.g. the african grasshopper zonocercus variegatus (l.) (page, 1980), or avoid being active during the rainy season, e.g. the anthophorid bee epicharis zonata (f. smith) (roubik and michener, 1980). a slight warming or drying of the climate in the tropics could have dramatic effects on the incidence, duration or successful completion of diapause in many species.
What does the ideal complete-mix model represent?
the complete-mix model represents one extreme infinite longitudinal dispersion
What does the ideal plug-flow model represent?
the plug-flow model represents the other extreme no longitudinal dispersion
Why is it more complicated to model a pond according to the dispersed flow model?
due to the need of two parameters (bod removal coefficient and dispersion number), unlike the previous models, in which the knowledge of only the bod removal coefficient is needed
in reality, the hydraulic regime in a stabilisation pond does not exactly follow the ideal complete-mix or plug-flow models, but an intermediate model. the completemix and plug-flow models constitute an envelope, inside which all the reactors in reality are located. the complete-mix model represents one extreme infinite longitudinal dispersion ), while the plug-flow model represents the other extreme no longitudinal dispersion ). inside these extremes are located the reactors modelled according to the dispersed flow comprising all the ponds found in practice. for this reason, the knowledge of the dispersed-flow model is important, since it can be used as a better approximation for the design of stabilisation ponds. however, modelling of a pond according to the dispersed flow model is more complicated, due to the need of two parameters (bod removal coefficient and dispersion number), unlike the previous models, in which the knowledge of only the bod removal coefficient is needed. 526 stabilisation ponds a) bod removal coefficient k the value of the bod removal coefficient (k) can be obtained through one of the following empirical relations, obtained in studies of ponds modelled according to the dispersed flow regime:
What do the first and second ensembles include?
the first included anthropogenic greenhouse gases, aerosols, and stratospheric ozone depletion (ant), and the second ensemble also included volcanic aerosol and solar variability (all
What were the largest trends observed in?
as expected, the largest trends are observed in djf
Where were decreases in SLP observed in?
with decreases in slp over the arctic and antarctic
the first included anthropogenic greenhouse gases, aerosols, and stratospheric ozone depletion (ant), and the second ensemble also included volcanic aerosol and solar variability (all). figure 9 shows linear trends in zonal-mean slp for each season over the period 1949-2009 in observations and the all ensemble. as expected, the largest trends are observed in djf, with decreases in slp over the arctic and antarctic. however, one aspect of the trend pattern which has not received much attention is the significant increase in slp observed in all latitude bands between 32 5*n and 62 5*s.75an increase in slp is also simulated in all these latitude bands. the signal-to-noise ratio of
What National Staff did Jay Barnes join?
national hurricane center staff
What event could have been avoided with better information?
great 1987 storm when forecaster michael fish famously said on the 6 pm news that there was no hurricane coming, before the rapidly developing storm struck early next morning
How many years was he with them?
25 years
when jay barnes joined the national hurricane center staff, the average forecast error in a 24-hour period was 120 nautical miles, and when he left 25 years later it was down to only about 110 miles. during this time, the population of florida's coastal areas was exploding. the increase in population has far exceeded any small improvement we have made in our ability to forecast hurricanes. jay considers it unlikely that there will be any major breakthrough in the forecasting of hurricanes in the future. the atmosphere is too complex to allow the kind of precision forecasts that people who live on the coast today need. a similar lack of precision in forecasting was a hallmark of the great 1987 storm when forecaster michael fish famously said on the 6 pm news that there was no hurricane coming, before the rapidly developing storm struck early next morning. here the unpredictability, as in florida, becomes a factor in how many do, or could, die. the basic reason for this is that it is still too difficult to forecast the weather accurately: 15
What does the Univiersity od Victoria model consist of?
the university of victoria earth system climate model (uvic escm 2.7; weaver et al. 2001) consists of a vertically integrated, energy-moisture balance, atmospheric model, coupled to the mom2 ocean general circulation model, a dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice model, a modified (single soil layer) version of the met office surface exchange scheme (moses2) land surface model and the topdown representation of interactive foliage and flora including dynamics (triffid) vegetation model (meissner et al. 2003; matthews et al. 2004
What levels does the ocean have?
the ocean has 19 vertical levels. for these experiments, isopycnal (with gent-mcwilliams) mixing and flux-corrected transport were used in the ocean model. the sea ice is a simple, single-layer, thermodynamic version, with elastic-viscous-plastic dynamics. the ice sheet and ocean biology models were not used
the university of victoria earth system climate model (uvic escm 2.7; weaver et al. 2001) consists of a vertically integrated, energy-moisture balance, atmospheric model, coupled to the mom2 ocean general circulation model, a dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice model, a modified (single soil layer) version of the met office surface exchange scheme (moses2) land surface model and the topdown representation of interactive foliage and flora including dynamics (triffid) vegetation model (meissner et al. 2003; matthews et al. 2004). all models use the same resolution: 1.8deg  3.6deg. the ocean has 19 vertical levels. for these experiments, isopycnal (with gent-mcwilliams) mixing and flux-corrected transport were used in the ocean model. the sea ice is a simple, single-layer, thermodynamic version, with elastic-viscous-plastic dynamics. the ice sheet and ocean biology models were not used.
What is one of the greatest conservational issues?
anthropogenic climate change is one of the greatest conservation issues facing biologists, land stewards, and governments and has become a central topic in biological research
What will rapidly changing environmental temperatures alter?
rapidly changing environmental temperatures will alter the selective pressures acting on all animals because temperature is one of the most important factors affecting energy and water balance; thus, climate change has the potential for severely affecting the fitness of many species
What is one of the most obvious results of climate change?
one of the most obvious results of climate change is that environmental temperatures are changing at a rate much faster than seen during natural climatic fluctuations (ipcc 2007
anthropogenic climate change is one of the greatest conservation issues facing biologists, land stewards, and governments and has become a central topic in biological research. considerable effort is being invested in determining the best methods to measure the current impacts of climate change and model the future effects (chown et al. 2010). one of the most obvious results of climate change is that environmental temperatures are changing at a rate much faster than seen during natural climatic fluctuations (ipcc 2007). rapidly changing environmental temperatures will alter the selective pressures acting on all animals because temperature is one of the most important factors affecting energy and water balance; thus, climate change has the potential for severely affecting the fitness of many species. despite the crucial role of energy balance in determining fitness and the feasible impacts of climate change on energy balance, ecological physiology (the field of study most directly concerned with environmental effects on energy expenditure) has been underutilized until recently (helmuth et al. 2005; chown et al. 2010). endothermic species (at least classically defined homeotherms) are often thought to maintain relatively high body temperatures tb) within a narrow range by means of heat produced from metabolic processes. endothermic metabolic rates are several times higher than those of ectotherms, and metabolic heat production is regulated in response to
What is the baseline1 cost of PV electricity?
the 36 cents/kwh figure is set as a baseline cost1of pvelectricity in our analysis
What are the gross results of these surveys?
we first asked one expert per technology to identify the key hurdles facing it, primarily in the course of defining the success endpoints discussed in section 2.3. the experts described the specific challenges that research would have to overcome to achieve the desired level for each of the dimensions of the success endpoints. for example, while experts estimate a probability for achieving efficiency of 31%, they consider such challenges as achieving sufficient exciton lifetime, sufficient mobility (speed) of charge, having molecules that absorb across the appropriate spectrum of light given the charge mobility; and having defect free structures in the lab and then in production. similarly, in estimating the probability of achieving a 30 year stable lifetime, experts consider the challenges of finding molecules that are stable enough to ambient air and water
What method to assess long-term prospects?
our method for assessing prospects of long-term r&d under varying funding scenarios is based on insights from the standard decision analysis literature on obtaining probability judgments from experts in ways that avoid biases due to overconfidence, motivation, anchoring, etc. morgan and keith, 1995; von winterfeldt and edwards, 1986 
the 36 cents/kwh figure is set as a baseline cost1of pvelectricity in our analysis. we use the same formula to convert each of the assessed technologies into a cost per kwh. in order to avoid imbalance between the pv cell costs and the bos costs, we assume that the bos cost is reduced to $75 per square meter by 2050.2see table 1 for the resulting costs. 2.5. probability elicitations we now describe the elicitation of probability assessments for the technologies in this study, describing the process of structuring these assessments and conducting surveys to obtain judgments from multiple experts. our method for assessing prospects of long-term r&d under varying funding scenarios is based on insights from the standard decision analysis literature on obtaining probability judgments from experts in ways that avoid biases due to overconfidence, motivation, anchoring, etc. morgan and keith, 1995; von winterfeldt and edwards, 1986 ). in the following sections we present the raw results of these surveys and discuss how multiple probabilities may be combined. we first asked one expert per technology to identify the key hurdles facing it, primarily in the course of defining the success endpoints discussed in section 2.3. the experts described the specific challenges that research would have to overcome to achieve the desired level for each of the dimensions of the success endpoints. for example, while experts estimate a probability for achieving efficiency of 31%, they consider such challenges as achieving sufficient exciton lifetime, sufficient mobility (speed) of charge, having molecules that absorb across the appropriate spectrum of light given the charge mobility; and having defect free structures in the lab and then in production. similarly, in estimating the probability of achieving a 30 year stable lifetime, experts consider the challenges of finding molecules that are stable enough to ambient air and water, and of
What do the doubters and naysayers call the "projectified world" argument?
yet others see them as part of a failed 'rationalistic dream' which creates a pervasive normative pressure on what it is we do under the rubric of 'a project
What unholy marriage has emerged from the onset of project state?
at its worst the project state has come to represent an 'unholy marriage between bureau cratic and managerialist rationalities, while pretending to privilege citizen engage ment and direct participation in governance
Does the "hard systems paradigm" lend itself to a climate change world?
what seems clear to me is that the pervasiveness of systematic thinking and practices associated with goals, targets and projects, what winter and checkland [43 call the 'hard systems paradigm', does not augur well for adapting in a climate change world. we need to invent something better
within these different discourses about the emergence of a 'projectified world' there are competing claims as to what a project enables or not. thus some see them positively as a means to be more open to context - 'as mechanisms for joined-up governance with a horizontal approach to governing and organizing' 29 p. 67]. yet others see them as part of a failed 'rationalistic dream' which creates a pervasive normative pressure on what it is we do under the rubric of 'a project' 35 15 at its worst the project state has come to represent an 'unholy marriage between bureau cratic and managerialist rationalities, while pretending to privilege citizen engage ment and direct participation in governance' 18 what seems clear to me is that the pervasiveness of systematic thinking and practices associated with goals, targets and projects, what winter and checkland [43 call the 'hard systems paradigm', does not augur well for adapting in a climate change world. we need to invent something better. 16
What does 'k' stand for?
the collective properties of degree (k
What is ki?
the frequency distribution of the number of species a given species interacts with
What is meant by keystones?
wellconnected species are termed keystones
the former measures are focused on the properties of summed pairs of interacting species. to assess the overall robustness of networks we need to investigate the collective properties of degree (k) and strength (sin). following dunne et al. (2002b), network robustness can firstly be investigated by examination of the frequency distribution of the species degree ki. that is, the frequency distribution of the number of species a given species interacts with. formally, the distribution p(k) gives the proportion of species in the network having degree k. typically p(k) follows an exponential or power law (scale-free) distributions. scalefree distributions depict networks in which most species are poorly connected with one another whereas a few species are well connected. in the ecological literature, such wellconnected species are termed keystones, whereas in the network literature they are termed hubs. scale-free degree frequency distributions are expected to be very robust to random loss of species, because most species are poorly connected in the network thus being unlikely removed by chance. however, they are very sensitive to the chirurgic removal of species with high k degree (albert et al. 2000). in contrast, networks with exponential degree distributions, whereby a great proportion of species is highly connected with other species, are more sensitive to random removal of species. secondly, network robustness was investigated by examination of the frequency distribution of the species strength si. that is, the frequency distribution of the sum of dependencies between pairs of species (our measure of sin). the distribution of p(sin) is expected to generally have the same properties as p(k) (barrat et al. 2004). modelling exposure of individual species to climate change species exposure to climate change was measured as d  ritfuture ritbaseline, where r is the distributional range of species i at time t. in order to calculate d individual species
What does Figure S2 show?
figure s2 spatial pattern of projected ensemble turnover of priority species using an alternative modelling approach
What does Figure S3 show?
figure s3 spatial pattern of projected ensemble turnover of whole avian communities
What does Figure S4 show?
figure s4 spatial pattern of projected ensemble persistence of priority species
projected turnover using an alternative modelling approach. figure s2 spatial pattern of projected ensemble turnover of priority species using an alternative modelling approach. figure s3 spatial pattern of projected ensemble turnover of whole avian communities. figure s4 spatial pattern of projected ensemble persistence of priority species. table s1 accuracy of expected compared with observed iba inventories. table s2 similarity between projected future species inventories. please note: wiley-blackwell are not responsible for the content or functionality of any supporting information supplied by the authors. any queries (other than missing material) should be directed to the corresponding author for the article. editor, steve beissinger manuscript received 17 november 2008 first decision made 23 december 2008 manuscript accepted 4 february 2009
How can implementation be changed from its current status?
although implementation still leaves much to be desired, a resolution ensuring the participation of women in all processes for preventing climate change, adapting to changing environments and dealing with increased natural disasters will go a long way towards effective and socially just climate policy and the prevention of related conflicts. (rohr 2008
How can we move forward to ensuring more female ex-combatants are equally integrated?
for climate change adaptation and mitigation, it is essential to ensure that female ex-combatants are equally integrated into political processes and decisionmaking following conflict
How can we ensure that gender equiity continues to be effective moving forward?
it has also been well documented that gender equity is key to effective post-conflict disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration
it has also been well documented that gender equity is key to effective post-conflict disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration. for climate change adaptation and mitigation, it is essential to ensure that female ex-combatants are equally integrated into political processes and decisionmaking following conflict. in turn, this will enhance their ability to participate more systematically in decision-making around climate change mitigation and response. opportunities for enhancing gender equality in climate change-related conflict opportunities for enhancing gender equality in climate change-related conflict un [security council] resolution 1325 on peace-building calls for women's greater participation in such processes. although implementation still leaves much to be desired, a resolution ensuring the participation of women in all processes for preventing climate change, adapting to changing environments and dealing with increased natural disasters will go a long way towards effective and socially just climate policy and the prevention of related conflicts. (rohr 2008)
What does the Table of Observations (TO) represents?
this to represents a collection of existing observations of gravity currents
Estimates for volume transports?
for volume transports, we report estimates from various sources to particularly stress observational uncertainty and temporal and spatial variabilities as shown by some recent observational studies
example of the estimates?
for example, ms 2.1 +- 0.2 sv given in table 3 for the fbc from dye et al. [2007] is based on the observed velocity field from the bottom to the level at which the velocity has one half of its maximum value [see also hansen and osterhus 2007
some observational estimates of the ds and fbc overflow properties are given in tables 2 and 3, respectively. we mostly rely on the table of observations (to) presented in legg et al. [2009] for t s and r this to represents a collection of existing observations of gravity currents. for volume transports, we report estimates from various sources to particularly stress observational uncertainty and temporal and spatial variabilities as shown by some recent observational studies. such variability undoubtedly exists in t and s as well, but only a few of the observational values are also included in tables 2 and 3. the transport estimates from different sources can be based on different methods and different density criterion, thus further contributing to the differences between the estimates. for example, ms 2.1 +- 0.2 sv given in table 3 for the fbc from dye et al. [2007] is based on the observed velocity field from the bottom to the level at which the velocity has one half of its maximum value [see also hansen and osterhus 2007]. when they use only the volume flux of
Can the vegetation gain an additional source of water from passing clouds?
the vegetation gains an additional source of water by stripping water out of the passing clouds
What does HP stand for here?
horizontal precipitation hereafter hp
What is another name for horizontal precipitation?
sometimes referred to as cloud stripping
becker, 1999 since these consequences are so grave, we will now discuss the possible impact of deforestation on the water budget in detail. 5.1.1. the cloud forest's water budget hydrologically, the frequent contact of clouds on the vegetation has multiple implications. the vegetation gains an additional source of water by stripping water out of the passing clouds, either through direct contact or through condensation, in a process known z as horizontal precipitation hereafter hp, sometimes referred to as cloud stripping bruijnzeel and procz tor 1995 reviewed the hydrological cycle of cloud forests and found that hp inputs varied from 70z mm r year in venezuela up to over 1160 mm r year in honduras, but that typical values were around 5-20% of rainfall. this can be especially significant
What is climate path analysis?
climate path analyses find that range shifts, expansions and contractions can be greatly affected by climatic variability, causing persistence to have a strong effect on whether species shift their ranges, and having unexpected and important implications for conservation plans
What does a climate path evaluate?
climate paths evaluate the routes along which species ranges might move by dividing range shifts into time steps
What is the disadvantage of climate forecast?
climate forecasts cannot capture the spatial and temporal pattern of climate change with sufficient accuracy to predict the exact timing or location of range shifts
climate path analyses find that range shifts, expansions and contractions can be greatly affected by climatic variability, causing persistence to have a strong effect on whether species shift their ranges, and having unexpected and important implications for conservation plans. climate paths evaluate the routes along which species ranges might move by dividing range shifts into time steps. the time steps used (decades in our analyses) reflect both the length of time over which the focal species could disperse and establish new populations, and the periodicity of the natural climatic oscillations within the study region. climate forecasts cannot capture the spatial and temporal pattern of climate change with sufficient accuracy to predict the exact timing or location of range shifts. instead, the purpose of the approach we suggest is to investigate how the spatiotemporal pattern of climate change places extrinsic limitations on species  ability to shift their ranges. this gives us insight into how species  intrinsic traits might interact with the pattern of climate change to drive range dynamics. below we discuss how the processes
What factors can facilitate disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation?
facilitating factors are technical capacity, disaster events with visible hazards, institutional support, committed individuals, and international involvement
What factors can impede disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation?
impediments include divergent risk perceptions, imposed government policies, institutional instability, knowledge disparities, and invisible hazards
glacier hazards threaten societies in mountain regions worldwide. glacial lake outburst floods (glofs) pose risks to exposed and vulnerable populations and can be linked in part to long-term post-little ice age climate change because precariously dammed glacial lakes sometimes formed as glaciers generally retreated after the mid-1800s. this paper provides an interdisciplinary and historical analysis of 40 years of glacier hazard management on mount hualcan, at glacial lake 513, and in the city of carhuaz in peru ' s cordillera blanca mountain range. the case study examines attempted hazard zoning, glacial lake evolution and monitoring, and emergency engineering projects to drain lake 513. it also analyzes the 11 april 2010 hualcan rock-ice avalanche that triggered a lake 513 glof; we offer both a scientific assessment of the possible role of temperature on slope stability and a gis spatial analysis of human impacts. qualitative historical analysis of glacier hazard management since 1970 allows us to identify and explain why certain actions and policies to reduce risk were implemented or omitted. we extrapolate these case-specific variables to generate a broader socio-environmental framework identifying factors that can facilitate or impede disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. facilitating factors are technical capacity, disaster events with visible hazards, institutional support, committed individuals, and international involvement. impediments include divergent risk perceptions, imposed government policies, institutional instability, knowledge disparities, and invisible hazards. this framework emerges from an empirical analysis of a coupled social-ecological system and offers a holistic approach for integrating disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation.
what is unit-free metric?
this unit-free metric, which estimates effect size as the difference between treatment and control plot means, scaled by the pooled standard deviation, allowed a quantitative assessment of large-scale patterns when methodology varied among studies
Along with weighted mean effect size which is also reported?
along with the weighted mean effect size, we also report the median percent change over all measurement years in all studies
effect size calculation we used the standardised mean difference (unbiased estimator hedge  s g* as an effect size (hedges olkin 1985). this unit-free metric, which estimates effect size as the difference between treatment and control plot means, scaled by the pooled standard deviation, allowed a quantitative assessment of large-scale patterns when methodology varied among studies (see cardinale et al. 2006; stewart 2010; vila` et al. 2011 and references therein for other examples and discussion of the benefits and limitations of this approach). along with the weighted mean effect size, we also report the median percent change over all measurement years in all studies.
What period of the year does the tropical storm tracks study cover?
for the tropical storm tracks the study is restricted to the nh active season encompassing the months may through october
What does figure 7 show?
figure 7 shows the storm track density and mean intensity for era-40 and the echam5 amip integration (averaged over the three ensemble members), respectively
What does the Atlantic storm track show?
the atlantic storm track shows systematic differences in both density and intensity in echam5 (figs. 7b,d) compared with era-40 (figs. 7a,c), with more and stronger activity over the african continent in echam5 associated with the heat lows that develop in the region of the hoggar and air mountains, as indicated in the genesis statistics (not shown
for the tropical storm tracks the study is restricted to the nh active season encompassing the months may through october. figure 7 shows the storm track density and mean intensity for era-40 and the echam5 amip integration (averaged over the three ensemble members), respectively. the atlantic storm track shows systematic differences in both density and intensity in echam5 (figs. 7b,d) compared with era-40 (figs. 7a,c), with more and stronger activity over the african continent in echam5 associated with the heat lows that develop in the region of the hoggar and air mountains, as indicated in the genesis statistics (not shown). there is also a more northerly position of the entrance of the storm track over the atlantic ocean in echam5 with fewer systems in the more southerly track than are seen in era-40 associated with the main convective band over the guinea highlands. the fact that there appear to be more storms entering the storm track but that they are weaker in echam5 may indicate the less favorable conditions for storm amplification as the ssts are lower to the north. the downstream part of the atlantic storm track also shows differences with an indication of a split in the track in
What have changing fire regimes between 3000 and 2000 cal. years also been inferred from?
from analysis of pollen-slide charcoal at low time resolution analysis of 30 lakes through east canada (carcaillet richard 2000
Where the fire history inferred from pollen-slide charcoal series mostly reflects ?
mostly reflects regional burning activity (clark royall 1996; tinner et al 1998; carcaillet et al 2001
Where the eastern Canadian fire status derived by Carcaillet Richard (2000) is biased towards to?
towards the current mixed-boreal forest, where 14 of their 30 lakes were located
changing fire regimes between 3000 and 2000 cal. years  have also been inferred from analysis of pollen-slide charcoal at low time resolution analysis of 30 lakes through east canada (carcaillet richard 2000). fire history inferred from pollen-slide charcoal series mostly reflects regional burning activity (clark royall 1996; tinner et al 1998; carcaillet et al 2001), but despite the differences in terms of approaches, quality of sites and resolution of analyses between the studies carried out in quebec, both conclude that the middle holocene was less conducive to fire than the late holocene. the change (up to an increase in frequency) occurred earlier in the coniferous-boreal than in the mixed-boreal forest (3500 vs. 2000 cal. years  and may indicate more frequent intrusion of cool/dry pacific or cold/dry arctic air masses increasing drought in the potential fire seasons during late-spring or summer. the eastern canadian fire status derived by carcaillet richard (2000) is biased towards the current mixed-boreal forest, where 14 of their 30 lakes were located. only one lake (lac desautels) in the presentday coniferous-boreal forest was studied, but despite the low resolution analysis, charcoal accumulation rate
What could provide pain relief for a patient in crisis mode?
crnas interface with the team to provide pain relief or anesthetic for the patient, often in crisis mode
Which areas have more agreement with all the climate item teamworks?
in addition, perinatologists and neonatologists reported more agreement, 70 to 88% with all six teamwork climate items while crnas and rns demonstrated generally lower levels of agreement
For which reason is caused that difference of agreement between different areas and climate item teamworks?
this difference may be a function of job roles in the labor and delivery process. crnas interface with the team to provide pain relief or anesthetic for the patient, often in crisis mode
in comparing crnas to anesthesiologists, we found comparable scores in five of the six teamwork climate items, whereby anesthesiologists were r 5 percentage points higher than crnas. this comparability may be due to similar clinical roles in labor and delivery. interestingly, there was a significant response difference for the item 'nurse input is well received in this clinical area,' with half of crnas agreeing relative to two thirds of the anesthesiologists. in addition, perinatologists and neonatologists reported more agreement, 70 to 88% with all six teamwork climate items while crnas and rns demonstrated generally lower levels of agreement. this difference may be a function of job roles in the labor and delivery process. crnas interface with the team to provide pain relief or anesthetic for the patient, often in crisis mode. perinatologists and neonatologists are maternal-fetal medicine specialists, and may be a step removed from the routine l&d team
What can contribute to climate-change goals, food security, ecosystem service provision, and other goals?
to pursue adaptation and mitigation goals simultaneously in tropical agriculture and to adopt integrated landscape approaches
For capturing synergies between adaptation and mitigation, What would significantly help to achieve this goal ?
between adaptation and mitigation, their joint consideration in landscape planning, research, technical support, government policies, and funding mechanisms would significantly help to achieve this goal
What would help to promote tropical agricultural systems and landscapes that have enhanced adaptation and mitigation potential, while contributing to food security, poverty alleviation, and biodiversity conservation across the tropics?
a renewed and strengthened commitment to sustainable agriculture, conservation agriculture, agroforestry, and other best management practices for agriculture, as well as an increased focus on integrated landscape management, would help to promote tropical agricultural systems and landscapes that have enhanced adaptation and mitigation potential, while contributing to food security, poverty alleviation, and biodiversity conservation across the tropics
there are significant opportunities to pursue adaptation and mitigation goals simultaneously in tropical agriculture and to adopt integrated landscape approaches that contribute to climate-change goals, food security, ecosystem service provision, and other goals. while there is no one general formula for capturing synergies between adaptation and mitigation, their joint consideration in landscape planning, research, technical support, government policies, and funding mechanisms would significantly help to achieve this goal. a renewed and strengthened commitment to sustainable agriculture, conservation agriculture, agroforestry, and other best management practices for agriculture, as well as an increased focus on integrated landscape management, would help to promote tropical agricultural systems and landscapes that have enhanced adaptation and mitigation potential, while contributing to food security, poverty alleviation, and biodiversity conservation across the tropics.
What does the solids flux theory describe?
the zone settling phenomenon that takes place in secondary sedimentation tanks and gravity thickeners
In this context, what is flux?
the solids load per unit area (for example expressed as kgss/m2.h
The solids flux theory, in the context of wastewater treatment, can be utilized for what two reasons?
its utilisation can be for design as well as for operational control
the solids flux theory describes the zone settling phenomenon that takes place in secondary sedimentation tanks and gravity thickeners. the solids flux theory is a result of the sequential development from many authors, but achieved a greater applicability in the context of wastewater treatment based on the works of dick (1972). its utilisation can be for design as well as for operational control. within a global view of the treatment system, the theory can be used together with a mathematical model of the reactor in order to allow an optimal design of the system (keinath et al, 1977; catunda and van haandel, 1987) or its optimal control (von sperling, 1990). the following items focus on the behaviour of a secondary sedimentation tank in an activated sludge plant, due to their greater importance when compared with gravity thickeners. however, the general principles are the same in both cases. in this context, flux can be understood as the solids load per unit area (for example expressed as kgss/m2.h). in a continuous flow sedimentation tank 438 basic principles of wastewater treatment
what is hydrology?
hydrology is a data-limited discipline
how to maintain data types?
some data types are relatively easy to obtain
what does data of land sets use?
can be obtained from satellites, historic photos, and phenology data
as mentioned above, hydrology is a data-limited discipline so, in a sense, all catchments of the world are data-sparse. however, in developing countries data density is particularly low. how to best overcome data scarcity to assess impacts on the water resource due to land cover change and climatic variability is an issue in both developing and developed countries although the level of data scarcity is different. alternatives to expensive instrumentation are therefore needed. ideally, one would have available simple methods that allow identification of the dominant processes in any one catchment with limited measurements. there exist a number of low-cost options for measuring hydrological response at various scales. one example at the small catchment scale are simple tubes used as overland flow indicators (vertessy et al ., 2000). at larger scales, low-cost monitoring strategies may involve enlistment of volunteers, such as in a successful programme with primary school teachers in ecuador. there are examples where the basin community has been mobilized by experts to conduct simultaneous spot measurements of flow and water quality. the globe program is an example programme that provides web-based measurement protocols for science school teachers. optimizing measurement strategies is another cornerstone of addressing the data scarcity issue. nested basins at different scales with extra equipment in some of the catchments are useful in examining scale issues. hydrological observatories based on this philosophy have been established, or will soon be established, in a number of countries including the uk and the us (e.g. by the cuahsi initiative). monitoring issues are highly relevant to management, e.g. how to give guidance on the necessary regulations given a monitoring network or, conversely, what is the network density necessary to address a management problem such as the ecological consequences of catchment development in a stream. some data types are relatively easy to obtain, so another variant of optimizing the measurement strategy is a prudent choice of the variables to be sampled. for example, data sets of land use change can be obtained from satellites, historic photos, and phenology data. more generally, important issues are whether one can identify variables that should be strategically collected that would more directly
how can The downscaling of climate information to the local scale be achieved?
the downscaling of climate information to the local scale may be achieved through the use of embedded high-resolution dynamical models derived from complex gcms murphy et al 2007 or by the training of statistical techniques based on past observed data
what are the Government agencies concerned with?
government agencies, businesses and private individuals are not often concerned with equilibrium global climate sensitivity but rather with much more local climate variability and change and with systems for which climate is one of many controlling influences
what is The latter?
the latter is simpler to implement, but empirical relationships derived using past data may be hard to find owing to the lack of observations or instability of relationships between largeand small-scale variables
if any of the ensemble and probabilistic techniques discussed in this issue are of any worth, they must produce information that can be directly used by society in making decisions. government agencies, businesses and private individuals are not often concerned with equilibrium global climate sensitivity but rather with much more local climate variability and change and with systems for which climate is one of many controlling influences. the downscaling of climate information to the local scale may be achieved through the use of embedded high-resolution dynamical models derived from complex gcms murphy et al 2007 or by the training of statistical techniques based on past observed data. the former is technically complex and there are a number of issues to do with the way the physical parameterization schemes operate at higher spatial resolution for example, that may introduce further uncertainties. the latter is simpler to implement, but empirical relationships derived using past data may be hard to find owing to the lack of observations or instability of relationships between largeand small-scale variables. such present-day empirical relationships may not even be appropriate to the future. there is a significant area of research in the impacts or applications of climate change which takes the raw climate information and uses further modelling techniques to produce societal-relevant information new et al 2007 stainforth et al 2007 b ). impacts models are diverse and examples are available in the prediction of river flow and other hydrological variables, crop yield and energy demand. the key issue to note is that there is a 'cascade of uncertainty' from the
A light energy source, in this case represented by the?
sun
Sun is needed for what process?
photosynthesis
o be effective, photosynthesis needs what?
large exposure surface area to make the most of the solar energy by the algae
a light energy source, in this case represented by the sun, is necessary for photosynthesis to occur. for this reason, locations with high solar radiation and low cloudiness are favourable for the implementation of facultative ponds. photosynthesis is higher near the water surface, as it depends on solar energy. typical pond depths are between 1.5 and 2.0 m. when deep regions in the pond are reached, the light penetration is low, what causes the predominance of oxygen consumption respiration over its production photosynthesis ), with the possible absence of dissolved oxygen at a certain depth. besides, photosynthesis only occurs during the day, and during the night the absence of oxygen can prevail. owing to 186 to wastewater characteristics, treatment and disposal these facts, it is essential that the main bacteria responsible for the stabilisation of the organic matter are facultative, so that they can survive and proliferate, either in the presence or in the absence of oxygen (but only under anoxic, and not strict anaerobic conditions). the process of facultative ponds is essentially natural, as it does not require any equipment. for this reason, the stabilisation of the organic matter takes place at lower rates, implying the need of a long detention time in the pond (usually greater than 20 days). to be effective, photosynthesis needs a large exposure surface area to make the most of the solar energy by the algae, also implying the need of large units. as a result, the total area required by facultative ponds is the largest within all the wastewater treatment processes (excluding the land disposal processes). on the other hand, because the process is totally natural, it is associated to a high operational simplicity, which is a factor of fundamental importance in developing countries. figure 4.9 presents a typical flowsheet of a facultative pond system.
What is the size of Euro-Limbox sites?
in this paper we review these issues using data from the studies included in this special "euro-limpacs" section and other examples from the wider literature. the euro-limpacs sites were not selected to be directly comparable in terms of size or trophic state; they are sites for which there are both long-term monitoring records and sediment records. with the exception of myvatn (hauptfleisch et al. 2012), all have a clear history of cultural eutrophication
what are the  Measures  to reduce nutrient loading?
measures have been taken at all sites to reduce nutrient loading, but eutrophication remains a problem at most
what is our aim to assess eutrophication?
our aim is to assess the extent to which changes that have occurred over recent decades in the study sites are due to climate change either directly or indirectly and whether the influence of climate change can be disentangled from that of other pressures, especially eutrophication
in this paper we review these issues using data from the studies included in this special "euro-limpacs" section and other examples from the wider literature. the euro-limpacs sites were not selected to be directly comparable in terms of size or trophic state; they are sites for which there are both long-term monitoring records and sediment records. with the exception of myvatn (hauptfleisch et al. 2012), all have a clear history of cultural eutrophication. measures have been taken at all sites to reduce nutrient loading, but eutrophication remains a problem at most. they range from very small shallow sites to very large deep lakes situated from iceland in the north to italy in the south (battarbee bennion, 2012). our aim is to assess the extent to which changes that have occurred over recent decades in the study sites are due to climate change either directly or indirectly and whether the influence of climate change can be disentangled from that of other pressures, especially eutrophication.
How was the robustness of the explicative and predictive models estimated?
the robustness of the explicative and predictive models was estimated using a leave-one-out cross validation method: a single observation (year y from the original sample (1971-2010 years) was retained as a validation data for testing the model, and the remaining observations were used as training data
How many times was the process repeated?
this process was repeated 40 times such that each yearly observation in the sample was used once as the validation data
What was calculated for each model?
the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value were calculated for each model
the robustness of the explicative and predictive models was estimated using a leave-one-out cross validation method: a single observation (year y from the original sample (1971-2010 years) was retained as a validation data for testing the model, and the remaining observations were used as training data. this process was repeated 40 times such that each yearly observation in the sample was used once as the validation data. the results from the folds then were averaged to produce a single estimation of dengue outbreak risk in noumea each year. the performance of the models was estimated with the receiver operator characteristics area under the curve (roc-auc). the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value were calculated for each model.
Define IPCC?
the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc), which was jointly established by the world meteorological organization (wmo) and the united nations environment program (unep) in 1988, has responsibility for assessing information relevant to climate change and summarizing this information for policy makers and the public
When did the report published?
it has published major assessment reports most recently in 1995 and 2001 (69
Explain new assessment schedule?
a new assessment is scheduled for publication in 2007, and updated predictions are available in other publications (e.g., 142). since the 1995 report, there have been a number of advances, including improvements in the atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (aogcm) used to predict climate change
the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc), which was jointly established by the world meteorological organization (wmo) and the united nations environment program (unep) in 1988, has responsibility for assessing information relevant to climate change and summarizing this information for policy makers and the public. it has published major assessment reports most recently in 1995 and 2001 (69). a new assessment is scheduled for publication in 2007, and updated predictions are available in other publications (e.g., 142). since the 1995 report, there have been a number of advances, including improvements in the atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (aogcm) used to predict climate change. other improvements include better regionalization techniques, a better understanding of the physical processes underlying the models, and better availability of paleoclimate data for evaluating long-term temperature change and historic climate data for evaluating preindustrial atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. climate change predictions are based on scenarios that describe greenhouse gas emissions from potential resource use patterns, technological innovations, and demographics. the results from modeling experiments based on these emissions scenarios give a range of predictions, depending on the assumptions quantified by each scenario. sources of uncertainty in predictions include inability to
Explain about Partners Climate Predictability?
project title objective partners climate predictability tool training foster a network of expertise for improved understanding of climate predictability
what are used for the development of climate forecasts; -broader uptake and understanding of climate and environmental influences?
world meteorological organization commission for climatology expert team tutorials/workbooks -dynamical downscaling -climate predictability -climate and agriculture -climate and malaria create stand-alone training materials and best practices that can be utilized in regions for: -creating regional climate products; -understanding of climate predictability as well as to inform best practices for the development of climate forecasts; -broader uptake and understanding of climate and environmental influences and control opportunities
Explain clearly about  Regional Climate Outlook Forum Support?
the earth institute at columbia university additional partners pending regional climate outlook forum support, africa (completed) improve climate variability management at the national level in africa by enhancing the capacity (i) of climate forecasters to implement approaches and evaluate their expected skill when applied in real-time and (ii) among rcof partners to achieve measureable improvements in selected aspects of climate variability management. igad climate prediction and application center (icpac), nairobi (formerly dmc, nairobi) drought monitoring center, harare acmad world meteorological organization noaa/climate program office (formerly ogp) climate and society reference tool (completed) advance research and activities related to the applications of climate information by facilitating multi-disciplinary thinking and cooperation among stakeholders
project title objective partners climate predictability tool training foster a network of expertise for improved understanding of climate predictability. world meteorological organization commission for climatology expert team tutorials/workbooks -dynamical downscaling -climate predictability -climate and agriculture -climate and malaria create stand-alone training materials and best practices that can be utilized in regions for: -creating regional climate products; -understanding of climate predictability as well as to inform best practices for the development of climate forecasts; -broader uptake and understanding of climate and environmental influences and control opportunities. columbia center for new media teaching and learning master's program in climate and society enable numerous iri staff in teaching, mentoring, and/or course curricula development; to educate diverse population of master's students in climate-informed approaches to problem solving; to stimulate faculty recognition of the importance of climate informed development training at columbia university. the earth institute at columbia university department of earth and environmental sciences, cu visitors program build a global network of resource managers, innovative senior scientists, and policy leaders dedicated to collaboration in the search for development solutions. the earth institute at columbia university additional partners pending regional climate outlook forum support, africa (completed) improve climate variability management at the national level in africa by enhancing the capacity (i) of climate forecasters to implement approaches and evaluate their expected skill when applied in real-time and (ii) among rcof partners to achieve measureable improvements in selected aspects of climate variability management. igad climate prediction and application center (icpac), nairobi (formerly dmc, nairobi) drought monitoring center, harare acmad world meteorological organization noaa/climate program office (formerly ogp) climate and society reference tool (completed) advance research and activities related to the applications of climate information by facilitating multi-disciplinary thinking and cooperation among stakeholders. noaa/ogp advanced training institute on climatic variability and food security (completed) equip young agriculture and food security professionals in developing countries to apply advances in climate prediction at a seasonal lead time to their home institutions' ongoing efforts to address climate-sensitive aspects of agricultural production. global change system for analysis, research and training the david and lucile packard foundation climate and malaria training (in french) (completed) enable incorporation of relevant climate and environment information toward early warning systems for malaria epidemics and to enable effective control programs in the languages appropriate to the control program regions. ministere de la sante, institut d'hygiene sociale, antananarivo, madagascar/rti international
How does climate change influence other threats to social and natural systems?
climate change exacerbates other threats to social and natural systems, placing additional burdens particularly on the poor high confidence 
Why are integrated responses important?
integrated responses are especially relevant to energy planning and implementation; interactions among water, food, energy and biological carbon sequestration; and urban planning, which provides substantial opportunities for enhanced resilience, reduced emissions and more sustainable development medium
How can the effectiveness of integrated responses be enhanced?
the effectiveness of integrated responses can be enhanced by relevant tools, suitable governance structures, and adequate institutional and human capacity medium confidence 
climate change exacerbates other threats to social and natural systems, placing additional burdens particularly on the poor high confidence ). aligning climate policy with sustainable development requires attention to both adaptation and mitigation high confidence ). delaying global mitigation actions may reduce options for climate-resilient pathways and adaptation in the future. opportunities to take advantage of positive synergies between adaptation and mitigation may decrease with time, particularly if limits to adaptation are exceeded. increasing efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change imply an increasing complexity of interactions, encompassing connections among human health, water, energy, land use, and biodiversity medium evidence, high agreement ). {3.1, 3.5, 4.5} strategies and actions can be pursued now which will move towards climate-resilient pathways for sustainable development, while at the same time helping to improve livelihoods, social and economic wellbeing, and effective environmental management. in some cases, economic diversification can be an important element of such strategies. the effectiveness of integrated responses can be enhanced by relevant tools, suitable governance structures, and adequate institutional and human capacity medium confidence ). integrated responses are especially relevant to energy planning and implementation; interactions among water, food, energy and biological carbon sequestration; and urban planning, which provides substantial opportunities for enhanced resilience, reduced emissions and more sustainable development medium confidence ). {3.5, 4.4, 4.5}
What is SAM
southern annular mode
What are the reason for SAM towards its positive polarity?
projected increase of southern ocean wave generation, and a larger contribution of southern ocean swell propagating northwards, is consistent with a projected trend in sam towards its positive polarity
What causes SAM towards negative values17?
ozone recovery will have the opposite effect of pushing sam towards negative values17
a projected increase in southern ocean hs is the strongest signal of change observed in the study ensemble. the dominant mode of historical variability of the southern hemisphere wave climate is significantly correlated with the southern annular mode (sam)4. projected increase of southern ocean wave generation, and a larger contribution of southern ocean swell propagating northwards, is consistent with a projected trend in sam towards its positive polarity, as seen for future high emission scenarios17. positive polarity of sam is associated with a poleward shift of the southern hemisphere storm tracks and increase in the westerly jet17, which translates to increased generation of wind-waves in the region, which can propagate northwards away from the generation region into the global ocean as swell. during the 21st century, increases in greenhouse gas concentration will continue to shift the sam towards positive values, while ozone recovery will have the opposite effect of pushing sam towards negative values17. our ensemble considers only high greenhouse gas emission scenarios (a combination of sres a1b and a2), with the consequent response consistent with a shift to more positive sam.
How can we summerise the patterns in the data?
exchanges between the shelf and deep sea in antarctica were aided by the generally deep nature of the shelves, requiring the shelf fauna to tolerate greater hydrostatic pressures than shelf faunas elsewhere, and by the absence of a strong thermal gradient between the deep sea and shallow water in the southern ocean
What are the patterns linked to?
these patterns are clearly linked to the glacial history of antarctica
What did Brey say about Antarctica?
showed that many shelf taxa in antarctica have more extended bathymetric ranges than do comparable taxa on continental shelves elsewhere, suggesting that movement in and out of deeper water, driven by glacial cycles, may represent a general evolutionary history for the fauna
these patterns are clearly linked to the glacial history of antarctica. brey et al. (1996) showed that many shelf taxa in antarctica have more extended bathymetric ranges than do comparable taxa on continental shelves elsewhere, suggesting that movement in and out of deeper water, driven by glacial cycles, may represent a general evolutionary history for the fauna. in summary, exchanges between the shelf and deep sea in antarctica were aided by the generally deep nature of the shelves, requiring the shelf fauna to tolerate greater hydrostatic pressures than shelf faunas elsewhere, and by the absence of a strong thermal gradient between the deep sea and shallow water in the southern ocean.
What are the Uncertainties concerning the impacts of climate change?
uncertainties concerning the impacts of climate change on canadian fisheries, and potential adaptation options, are numerous
Explain Marine ecosystem?
marine ecosystems are extremely complex, and further research is needed to improve understanding of both the underlying processes affecting fish biodiversity, distribution and abundance, and their response to climate change
Define  freshwater ecosystems?
although freshwater ecosystems tend to be better understood than marine environments, there remain many uncertainties. adaptation, though not a new concept for the fisheries sector, needs to be more thoroughly examined in the context of climate change and current regulatory regimes
uncertainties concerning the impacts of climate change on canadian fisheries, and potential adaptation options, are numerous. marine ecosystems are extremely complex, and further research is needed to improve understanding of both the underlying processes affecting fish biodiversity, distribution and abundance, and their response to climate change. for instance, a stronger understanding of the relationships between aquatic habitat and fish populations, as well as the linkages between climate parameters and aquatic habitat is required. although freshwater ecosystems tend to be better understood than marine environments, there remain many uncertainties. adaptation, though not a new concept for the fisheries sector, needs to be more thoroughly examined in the context of climate change and current regulatory regimes. emerging issues, including interjurisdictional resource management within a changing climate, need to be addressed and results should be incorporated into domestic licensing policies and international treaties (e.g., references 2, 103). some key recommendations, as identified in the studies referenced in this chapter, include the following:
Explain the water temperature modelling framework?
the water temperature component of our modelling framework consist of the process-based stream temperature model rbm, which solves the 1d-heat advection equation using a mixed eulerian-lagrangian approach10,11
Why RBM was modified?
rbm was modified for global-scale application including anthropogenic impacts (i.e. heat effluents and reservoir impacts) on water temperature12,13. impacts of anthropogenic heat effluents from thermoelectric power plants on water temperature were incorporated by representing thermal discharges as point sources in the heat-advection equation (see supplementary information of van vliet et al.13 for details
What is the average temperature of return flow?
for the assessment of return flow temperatures of thermal effluents we assumed that the temperature of the return flow is on average 3 deg c higher than the inlet river temperatures
the water temperature component of our modelling framework consist of the process-based stream temperature model rbm, which solves the 1d-heat advection equation using a mixed eulerian-lagrangian approach10,11. rbm was modified for global-scale application including anthropogenic impacts (i.e. heat effluents and reservoir impacts) on water temperature12,13. impacts of anthropogenic heat effluents from thermoelectric power plants on water temperature were incorporated by representing thermal discharges as point sources in the heat-advection equation (see supplementary information of van vliet et al.13 for details). for the assessment of return flow temperatures of thermal effluents we assumed that the temperature of the return flow is on average 3 deg c higher than the inlet river temperatures as
Define Phenology?
phenology is defined (oxford english dictionary) as "the study of cyclic and seasonal natural phenomena, especially in relation to climate and plant and animal life
Where we can see the greatest range of upper ocean environmental conditions?
the seasonal range of upper ocean environmental conditions is typically greatest at mid and high latitudes
Where does the plankton biomass occur?
plankton biomass also occur in many tropical regions
phenology is defined (oxford english dictionary) as "the study of cyclic and seasonal natural phenomena, especially in relation to climate and plant and animal life". in many environments, including the upper watercolumn of oceans, the seasonal cycle sets much of the total environmental variability experienced by individual organisms and populations. the seasonal range of upper ocean environmental conditions is typically greatest at mid and high latitudes, but substantial seasonal variations of environment and plankton biomass also occur in many tropical regions sheridan and landry, 2004 longhurst, 2007 ). many species have evolved elaborate behavioral and life history strategies that exploit favorable periods of the year (those best matching optimal niche requirements) for growth and reproduction, and minimize exposure of sensitive life stages to stressful periods. for marine plankton, the primary modes of phenological variability are
What is the cause of increased frequency of fires?
climate warming at high latitudes
What is the result of increased frequency of fires at high latitudes?
feedback positively to further warming by releasing carbon to the atmosphere, but will also feedback negatively by increasing the surface albedo
What is the net effect of increased frequency of fires at high latitudes?
affects the trajectory of both carbon stocks and albedo change following a fire, and these are likely to differ between high latitude ecosystems in north america and northern eurasia
received 27 august 2007 accepted for publication 19 november 2007 published 21 december 2007 online at stacks.iop.org/erl/2/045031 vegetation composition at high latitudes plays a critical role in the climate and, in turn, is strongly affected by the climate. the increased frequency of fires expected as a result of climate warming at high latitudes will feedback positively to further warming by releasing carbon to the atmosphere, but will also feedback negatively by increasing the surface albedo. the net effect is complex because the severity of fire affects the trajectory of both carbon stocks and albedo change following a fire, and these are likely to differ between high latitude ecosystems in north america and northern eurasia. here we use growth trajectories, productivity trends and regional carbon fluxes to characterize these fireand climate-driven changes.
what is the example of Livestock production represents an inefficient use of water?
livestock production also represents an inefficient use of water. for example, global estimates indicate that, on a per kilo basis, production of beef, pork and chicken respectively uses around nine, four and three times as much water as cereals
what is the impact of  intensive livestock systems?
in particular, intensive livestock systems place a strain on scarce surface and groundwater resources, from irrigation for feed production (which is then converted to animal biomass with significant losses) and withdrawals to water and wash animals
what do pasture-based systems rely on?
pasture-based systems rely mainly on rainwater
livestock production also represents an inefficient use of water. for example, global estimates indicate that, on a per kilo basis, production of beef, pork and chicken respectively uses around nine, four and three times as much water as cereals.56 however, these averages mask important variations according to production system. in particular, intensive livestock systems place a strain on scarce surface and groundwater resources, from irrigation for feed production (which is then converted to animal biomass with significant losses) and withdrawals to water and wash animals. in contrast, pasture-based systems rely mainly on rainwater. a global shift in diets away from livestock products could free significant water resources57 and reduce pollution from fertilizer run-off.58
Which is the greatest threat?
climate change
Which are considered as taxonomic groups?
mammals
biologists have ample evidence that climate change is among the greatest threats facing biodiversity5, yet there remains much uncertainty regarding our ability to understand, predict and mitigate the responses of species to a changing climate. mammals are one of the best known taxonomic groups6and several studies have investigated the influence of geologic-scale climate change on morphology7, genetic diversity7and community assembly8. others have examined the effects of contemporary climate change (that is, over recent decades) on mammalian body size9, phenology10 and distribution3. in contrast to the extensive literature on phylogeographic responses to millennial scale climate change11, few studies have directly tested for genetic consequences of a recent (twentieth century) climate-induced range contraction, despite the importance of such diversity to population persistence12. the spatial genetic structure of natural populations has important consequences for ecological and evolutionary processes over both contemporary and geologic timescales. evidence indicates that climate change can alter genetic connectivity among populations13 and predictive models for montane taxa indicate that warminginduced fragmentation will reduce genetic diversity over time2,14. here, we test this prediction by comparing changes in genetic diversity for populations of two species of small mammal that differ in responses to twentieth-century climate warming in and around yosemite national park (ynp), usa.
No que se baseia o comentÃ¡rio interpretativo final? Se baseia-se em alguns dos insights do construtivismo social da sociologia ambiental.
our final interpretative comment draws upon some of the insights of social constructivism from environmental sociology
What decisions have been made over the UK's four generations of climate scenarios? decisions were made on the representation of uncertainty that were never made explicit and that were a reflection of certain attitudes
throughout the four generations of uk climate scenarios there were decisions made about the representation of uncertainty that were never made explicit and that were a reflection of certain attitudes
What do these decisions tend to be? They tend to reflect a particular attitude of the natural sciences towards uncertainty and the future
the decisions may well have been sympathetic, again implicitly, with the views of the wider scientific community with respect to climate change, but they tended to reflect a particular natural science attitude to uncertainty and the future
our final interpretative comment draws upon some of the insights of social constructivism from environmental sociology. throughout the four generations of uk climate scenarios there were decisions made about the representation of uncertainty that were never made explicit and that were a reflection of certain attitudes, unstated assumptions or belief systems of the key actors in the construction process and influenced by the computational constraints on running climate model experiments. the decisions may well have been sympathetic, again implicitly, with the views of the wider scientific community with respect to climate change, but they tended to reflect a particular natural science attitude to uncertainty and the future. these are examples of the hidden interpretations of knowledge informing policy that wynne and simmons (2001) identified intheir study ofinstitutional cultures in the uk in relation to the management of global change risks.
What are we suggesting in Fig. 5?
we suggest that analysis of herbarium data can be used to identify variability in physiological mechanisms that cue phenological events fig. 5 
What do we see in species in the spring?
it is clear that species vary in their flowering response to spring temperatures figs. 2, 4 
What is the amount of variability shown in later-blooming species?
the variability in response of later-blooming species still exceeded that of spring-blooming species by more than 2-fold
finally, we suggest that analysis of herbarium data can be used to identify variability in physiological mechanisms that cue phenological events fig. 5 ). it is clear that species vary in their flowering response to spring temperatures figs. 2, 4 ). including the random eff ects term (i.e., the species eff ect) in the model substantially improved model fi t (aic full model 5584, aic model without species 6902). regression of observed phenological advancement (days/ deg c) on the random eff ects term for each species (i.e., the change in y intercept relative to a common model) revealed several interesting patterns fig. 5 ). first, spring-blooming species have much less variability in their phenological responses to mean spring temperatures than do summeror fall-blooming species, suggesting that flowering in spring-blooming species (i.e., those that bloom before early june) is strongly controlled by temperature. in contrast, the large variability in response of summer-, and fall-blooming species suggests that fl owering in these species is controlled by a variety of diff erent factors, including photoperiod and winter chilling korner and basler, 2010 ). when we included herbarium data from nearby counties in this analysis (appendix s1: fig. s4), the variability in response of later-blooming species was somewhat reduced, and the relationship between the species-specifi c random eff ect size and advancement of fl owering time was more pronounced. nonetheless, the variability in response of later-blooming species still exceeded that of spring-blooming species by more than 2-fold. in either case, distinguishing more precisely between diff erent phenological cues, at least at broad scales, might now be possible
What are the variables studied ?
we focused on two simulation results (response variables): 1. extinction risk; and 2. increase in extinction risk due to climate change
How was the Extinction risk calculated?
extinction risk was calculated as the proportion of the 1,000 replicates that had reached a total metapopulation size of zero by the end of the simulated period
the increase in extinction risk was calculated how?
for the analysis of the importance of life history traits and spatial factors, the response variable used was the increase in extinction risk due to climate change, which was calculated as the difference in extinction risk under a climate change scenario (policy or reference) and under the no climate change scenario for each specific realized population model
analysis of extinction risk due to climate change we focused on two simulation results (response variables): 1. extinction risk; and 2. increase in extinction risk due to climate change. extinction risk was calculated as the proportion of the 1,000 replicates that had reached a total metapopulation size of zero by the end of the simulated period. for the analysis of the importance of life history traits and spatial factors, the response variable used was the increase in extinction risk due to climate change, which was calculated as the difference in extinction risk under a climate change scenario (policy or reference) and under the no climate change scenario for each specific realized population model. because we held the values selected in the lhs constant across the three scenarios (as explained above), this difference is an estimate of the increase in extinction risk that is attributable to climate change.
whether women's access to economic resources is unequal?
women's access to economic resources in terms of income and property ownership - including land - is already often unequal, particularly in developing countries
who is majority in working with informal employment sector?
women comprise the majority of those working in the informal employment sector which is often worst hit by climate change-related disasters and other shocks (iucn/wedo, n.d.), increasing women's already unequal access to resources and diminishing their capabilities to cope with unexpected events/disasters or adapt to change
who plays important roles?
there is also a role for labour unions and local non-governmental organisations (ngos) in raising awareness of rights among groups of women workers and in reporting back on employers' unjust practices
as noted above, women's access to economic resources in terms of income and property ownership - including land - is already often unequal, particularly in developing countries. a gender gap in earnings persists across almost all employment categories, including informal wage employment and self-employment ilo 2007). women comprise the majority of those working in the informal employment sector which is often worst hit by climate change-related disasters and other shocks (iucn/wedo, n.d.), increasing women's already unequal access to resources and diminishing their capabilities to cope with unexpected events/disasters or adapt to change. there is a clear need for studies that can accurately map these impacts across global regions and sectors in order to trace patterns. such evidence could provide the basis for policy on labour rights at national and international levels but there is also a role for labour unions and local non-governmental organisations (ngos) in raising awareness of rights among groups of women workers and in reporting back on employers' unjust practices.
What is the Global Change Research Program responsible for?
providing scien tific knowledge to inform management of risks and opportunities associated with changes in climate and natural resources
How many synthesis and assessment products were written?
21
What does the SAP 4.3 describe?
how climate change will affect forest and arid land ecosystems
the u.s. global change research program is responsible for providing scien tific knowledge to inform management of risks and opportunities associated with changes in climate and natural resources. to support its mission, 21 synthesis and assessment products (sap) were written as the current state of science for a wide range of climate change issues. two synthesis and assessment products are relevant to management of national forests and national grasslands: the effects of climate change on agriculture, land resources, water resources, and biodiversity (sap 4.3) (backland et al. 2008), and preliminary review of adaptation options for climate-sensitive ecosystems and resources (sap 4.4) (julius and west 2008). the sap 4.3 describes how climate change will affect forest and arid land ecosystems, including variability in different regions. the sap 4.4 provides a synthesis of adaptation options for federally managed lands and waters, as well as the scientific basis for those options.
which method is used to performed vegatation surveys?
we performed vegetation surveys by the point-intercept method (buttler, 1992; keuper et al., 2011
What is the procedure followed in above passage please expalin?
we used a 50x50 cm plexiglas frame placed above a permanently marked quadrat by means of 4 adjustable poles. a ruler with 20 holes was moved along 20 different positions to obtain 400 measuring points. a metal pin with a 1 mm diameter tip was lowered through each hole in the ruler and each contact of the pin with green living vegetation was recorded by species until the pin reached the moss substrate
How they measured the average microtropography of the marked vegetation quadrat.
otal water-soluble sphagnum -polyphenols were quantified in living segments of sphagnum shoots (0-6 cm) during each sampling campaign using folin methods and gallic acid as standard (see jassey et al., 2011b for details). these samples were collected around the same ten permanent markers used for microbial communities for each plot
aboveground measurements we performed vegetation surveys by the point-intercept method (buttler, 1992; keuper et al., 2011). we used a 50x50 cm plexiglas frame placed above a permanently marked quadrat by means of 4 adjustable poles. a ruler with 20 holes was moved along 20 different positions to obtain 400 measuring points. a metal pin with a 1 mm diameter tip was lowered through each hole in the ruler and each contact of the pin with green living vegetation was recorded by species until the pin reached the moss substrate. moss and vascular plant abundances were expressed as percentage of mean number of hits (%). moreover, we measured the average microtropography of the marked vegetation quadrat. total water-soluble sphagnum -polyphenols were quantified in living segments of sphagnum shoots (0-6 cm) during each sampling campaign using folin methods and gallic acid as standard (see jassey et al., 2011b for details). these samples were collected around the same ten permanent markers used for microbial communities for each plot.
hybrid rice where two varieties are crossed?
hybrid rice where two varieties are crossed, for example a high-yielding variety that is not salt-tolerant with some land races that are salt-tolerant (irri-bred variety, labelled as ir63307-4b-4-3), can be used to increase yields
appropriate infrastructure needs to be in place?
in addition, appropriate infrastructure needs to be in place and research needs to be undertaken into hydroponic seed production technologies aerobic rice varieties and rainwater harvesting for production systems situated in upland and rainfed areas
SSNM is what?
site-specific nutrient management
(usd52/ha) and indonesia (usd76/ha) (brennan and malabayabas, 2011). in addition, hybrid rice where two varieties are crossed, for example a high-yielding variety that is not salt-tolerant with some land races that are salt-tolerant (irri-bred variety, labelled as ir63307-4b-4-3), can be used to increase yields (up to 30 percent more yield can be generated using a commercial hybrid rice compared with a high-yielding inbred rice variety). in addition, appropriate infrastructure needs to be in place and research needs to be undertaken into hydroponic seed production technologies aerobic rice varieties and rainwater harvesting for production systems situated in upland and rainfed areas. * site-specific nutrient management (ssnm): this approach enables rice farmers to tailor nutrient management to the specific conditions of their fields, and provides a framework for nutrient best management practices for rice. it is a sophisticated knowledge system focused on double and triple rice monocropping (fao, 2011). a study conducted in the mekong delta showed that by using ssnm an increase in grain yield of about 0.5 tonnes/ha was obtained (hach and tan, 2007).
Does global warming have sociopolitical consequences?
changing patterns of illness for gradual and extreme forms of climate change will have sociopolitical consequences
Does migration due to global warming increase the transmission of  infectious diseases?
they not only place substantial demands on the ecosystems and social infrastructures into which they migrate, but also carry illnesses that emerge from shifts in infectious-disease vectors
Are new desease vectors associated with people migration affect professionals?
new disease vectors, therefore, are not only a problem for those who suff er, but for professionals educationally or clinically unprepared to respond to them
changing patterns of illness for gradual and extreme forms of climate change will have sociopolitical consequences. all epidemiological problems associated with modernity, mobility, and resource consumption are exacerbated when climate-related social instabilities are put in motion. as people migrate away from areas deteriorated by gradual warming or destroyed by extreme weather events, they not only place substantial demands on the ecosystems and social infrastructures into which they migrate, but also carry illnesses that emerge from shifts in infectious-disease vectors. new epidemics are serious issues. care facilities in increasingly warm climates, for instance, currently relegate tropical-disease treatment to specialty (sometimes exclusive and exclusionary) medical facilities. new disease vectors, therefore, are not only a problem for those who suff er, but for professionals educationally or clinically unprepared to respond to them. many hospital facilities in industrialised countries lack experience in
Why should we adapt the regression model for this project?
to reinforce the main conclusion of the paper: the suggestion of a relatively small equilibrium climate sensitivity
How did we utilize the regression model?
we deliberately adopted the regression model that gave the highest climate sensitivity (smallest y value
What are the expectations of utilizing this smaller Y value?
it has been suggested that a technique based on total least squares regression or bisector least squares regression gives a better fit, when errors in the data are uncharacterized
k 1, a range that does not include the true value for hadcm3 projections. another important reason for adopting our regression model was to reinforce the main conclusion of the paper: the suggestion of a relatively small equilibrium climate sensitivity. to show the robustness of this conclusion, we deliberately adopted the regression model that gave the highest climate sensitivity (smallest y value). it has been suggested that a technique based on total least squares regression or bisector least squares regression gives a better fit, when errors in the data are uncharacterized (isobe et al. 1990). for example, for 1985-96 both of these methods suggest ynet of around 3.5  2.0 w m 2k 1(a 0.7-2.4-k equilibrium surface temperature increase for 2  co2), and this should be
What may benefit crop and pasture yields in the temperate regions?
moderate warming (up to 2degc) in the first part of this century may benefit crop and pasture yields in the temperate regions
What survey the rather extensive literature on the agricultural impacts of climate change?
agricultural impacts of climate change tubiello and rosenzweig (2008) survey the rather extensive literature on the agricultural impacts of climate change
What will likely reduce crop yields in all regions?
the further warming that is expected for the second part of the century will likely reduce crop yields in all regions
for this survey, we are less concerned with the attribution aspect of the climate debate, and more concerned with the implications of detected changes - whatever their cause. what are the likely impacts of rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns on agriculture and poverty? of these changes, can we deduce which effects will have the largest implications for poverty? agricultural impacts of climate change tubiello and rosenzweig (2008) survey the rather extensive literature on the agricultural impacts of climate change and offer a useful synthesis (p.167). they conclude that moderate warming (up to 2degc) in the first part of this century may benefit crop and pasture yields in the temperate regions, while reducing crop yields in the semi-arid and tropical regions. however, the further warming that is expected for the second part of the century will likely reduce crop yields in all regions. taking a user's perspective on what is now a vast literature on the potential agricultural impacts of climate change, it is important to understand the different approaches that have been taken to estimate these effects, as they reflect sharply different "views of the world". we group the approaches into three categories: crop growth simulation models, statistical studies, and hedonic (or ricardian) approaches. each approach embodies rather different strengths and weaknesses as measured by the following criteria (table 1, adapted from rowhani and ramankutty 2009): * how onerous are the data requirements? * what is the spatial extent of the methodology - i.e. can it be used to predict global impacts; is it portable across regions?
What do the rice farmers in Bhutan's Punakha district try to adapt?
rice farmers in the study area (punakha district) have tried to adapt by modifying water-sharing arrangements between villages and by intensifying irrigation canal maintenance in drier years
According to focus group discussions and expert interviews, how many times higher has the labour input for maintenance gone up?
information from focus group discussions and expert interviews suggest that labour input for maintenance is up to ten times higher in years with poor or late rains than in years with adequate rainfall
What do the farmers cultivate when measures to convey sufficient irrigation water to fields are not enough?
when measures to convey enough irrigation water to fields are not enough, farmers cultivate crops needing less water, such as maize, instead of rice
the measures that households adopt to cope with impacts of extreme weather events and to adapt to slow-onset climatic changes often have costs themselves. these costs can be both monetary and non-monetary. in bhutan kusters and wangdi (2013) looked at the impact of changing monsoon patterns on rice cultivation. the monsoon rains are starting later and the total amount of rain has reduced sharply over the past two decades. rice farmers in the study area (punakha district) have tried to adapt by modifying water-sharing arrangements between villages and by intensifying irrigation canal maintenance in drier years. information from focus group discussions and expert interviews suggest that labour input for maintenance is up to ten times higher in years with poor or late rains than in years with adequate rainfall. there are significant costs attached to this, particularly because labour is scarce during the rice cultivation season. when measures to convey enough irrigation water to fields are not enough, farmers cultivate crops needing less water, such as maize, instead of rice. this has substantial costs, too. crop yields and income from maize are 2.5 to 8 times lower than for rice.2 eighty-seven per cent of the respondents using such measures said these involved extra monetary and non-monetary costs. in our study areas in mozambique households had to deal with the double threat of droughts and floods (brida et al., 2013). many of the households surveyed had been resettled from lowland areas to upland areas after repeated severe flooding in 2001 and 2007.this adaptation made them less vulnerable to flooding, but it came with a very significant cost. in the upland areas, many are unable to produce enough food for their families because upland soils are less fertile and crop yields significantly lower. some households moved their fields back to more fertile lowland areas, while living in upland areas. that gives them better yields, but valuable time and energy is wasted commuting the large distances between upland and lowland areas. moreover, when a flood hits again, they are at risk of losing their entire harvest from lowland farms. in our study areas in burkina faso and micronesia, there were clear manifestations of cultural losses. on the island of kosrae in the federated states of micronesia there was severe damage to a cultural heritage site because the big stones of an ancient fortress had been used to erect sea walls (monnereau and abraham, 2013). in northern burkina faso many former pastoralists have lost their herds in recurrent droughts and have had to take up other occupations. besides the material losses, many of these former herdsmen feel they have lost their cultural identity (traore et al., 2013).
What is considered to be an additional component that has the potential, during periods of bountiful rainfall, to increase the perceived behavioural control of an individual with low livestock assets?
rainfall assets
How are rainfall assets classified?
rainfall assets are classified within the model as having a relatively marginal impact upon
What is the range of rainfall asset values?
as a result, rainfall asset values calculated by agents range from zero (three consecutive dry years) to 0.3 (3 consecutive wet years
considered to be an additional component that has the potential, during periods of bountiful rainfall, to increase the perceived behavioural control of an individual with low livestock assets, rainfall assets are classified within the model as having a relatively marginal impact upon as a result, rainfall asset values calculated by agents range from zero (three consecutive dry years) to 0.3 (3 consecutive wet years). while the addition of 0.3 to a livestock asset score of 45.6 would have no impact upon determining whether an individual perceives themselves to be capable of migrating, adding 0.3 to livestock assets of 0.02 would have a significant proportional impact.
What can be seen by comparing Figs. 13 and 11?
it can be seen by comparing figs. 13 and 11 that the uncertainty introduced in the time average due to choice options in domain size are, in general, comparable to the internal variability of the larger domain, and bigger than that of the other domains
What is the case in Tennessee?
over tennessee, however, this is not the case: interdomain variability is much larger than that of the internal variability of any domain
According to the text, what has received some attention?
sensitivity to domain size in the time average has received some attention (e.g., castro et al. 2005), and it has been shown that large-scale nudging (e.g., weisse and feser 2003) can considerably reduce these effects
it can be seen by comparing figs. 13 and 11 that the uncertainty introduced in the time average due to choice options in domain size are, in general, comparable to the internal variability of the larger domain, and bigger than that of the other domains. over tennessee, however, this is not the case: interdomain variability is much larger than that of the internal variability of any domain. sensitivity to domain size in the time average has received some attention (e.g., castro et al. 2005), and it has been shown that large-scale nudging (e.g., weisse and feser 2003) can considerably reduce these effects.
Why will climate change pose new challenges for us in the future?
due to incremental changes in temperature and weather patterns, and to increased frequency and intensity of extreme climate events
What vision should conservation policies include that can work better than a singular emphasis on government control?
provide a vision for conservation policies that considers social adaptive capacity that copes with complexities of climate change
climate change will pose new challenges to conserving earth's natural ecosystems, due to incremental changes in temperature and weather patterns, and to increased frequency and intensity of extreme climate events. addressing these challenges will require pragmatic conservation actions informed by site-specific understanding of susceptibility to climate change and capacity of societies to cope with and adapt to change. depending on a location's environmental susceptibility and social adaptive capacity, appropriate conservation actions will require some combination of: (1) large-scale protection of ecosystems; (2) actively transforming and adapting socialecological systems; (3) building the capacity of communities to cope with change; and (4) government assistance focused on de-coupling communities from dependence on natural resources. we apply a novel analytical framework to examine conservation actions in five western indian ocean countries, where climate-mediated disturbance has impacted coral reefs and where adaptive capacity differs markedly. we find that current conservation strategies do not reflect adaptive capacity and are, therefore, ill prepared for climate change. we provide a vision for conservation policies that considers social adaptive capacity that copes with complexities of climate change better than the singular emphasis on government control and the creation of no-take areas.
What happens to the drought of the growing season? Limits the growth of Douglas fir on the coast
growing season dryness (low precipitation and to some degree high temperature between april and july) limits growth of douglas-fir on the coast
What does photosynthesis suggest in winter? Suggests that it is an important overall contributor to the growth of conifers in the Pacific Northwest
which suggests that photosynthesis in winter is an overall important contributor to conifer growth in the pacific northwest
What does this result support? Supports Waring Franklin's original hypothesis (1979)
this result supports waring franklin's (1979) original hypothesis that winter photosynthesis is a key advantage that conifers have over broadleaves, partially explaining their prevalence in the pacific northwest
peterson, 2006; littell et al ., 2008), growing season dryness (low precipitation and to some degree high temperature between april and july) limits growth of douglas-fir on the coast. we also found a pronounced positive influence of november temperature of the previous year on growth in many samples, which suggests that photosynthesis in winter is an overall important contributor to conifer growth in the pacific northwest. this result supports waring franklin's (1979) original hypothesis that winter photosynthesis is a key advantage that conifers have over broadleaves, partially explaining their prevalence in the pacific northwest (waring franklin, 1979; brubaker, 1980). for the interior variety, we found growth-climate relationships somewhat similar to those observed in a number of regional studies (watson luckman, 2002; case peterson, 2005; pederson et al ., 2006; littell et al ., 2008). consistently across all interior regions, ring width is correlated to precipitation in fall of the previous year and the current growing season. temperature of the current growing season has a negative influence, indicating an overall growth limitation
What is the integration of adaptation into other policies frequently called?
mainstreaming
What do some studies of instances where adaptation is already occurring provide insights on?
enabling factors that either prevent barriers from emerging or that help actors to deal with them
Give an example of how mainstreaming can be carried out.
by including climate change projections in water management, urban planning or health
so far, there are only a few studies that explicitly investigate how barriers perceived as problematic might be overcome. yet some studies of instances where adaptation is already occurring provide insights on enabling factors that either prevent barriers from emerging or that help actors to deal with them6,45-48. of those actions that have already been implemented, only a few have been large or costly27,49, and many are essentially extensions of previous policies. a related and important enabling condition is the integration of adaptation into other policies (frequently called 'mainstreaming', for example, by including climate change projections in water management, urban planning or health50-52). also, experience of extreme events or significant climate variability can initiate adaptation planning45. keskitalo et al.53 found that extreme events opened policy windows for adaptation in the united kingdom, sweden and finland, but not in italy -- a contrast attributed to the
What was the principle reason for decrease in variability of yield?
the principal reason for decreases in variability of yield was that the statistical results showed increases in precipitation to be variability-reducing and there were substantial increases in precipitation in these climate scenarios for most regions
Which yield variability tends to decrease under the HC climate and increase under the CC?
wheat yield variability tends to decrease under the hc climate and increase under the cc. soybean yield variability shows a uniform increase with the hc
What does the Soyabean yield variability shows with the HC?
soybean yield variability shows a uniform increase with the hc. the principal reason for decreases in variability of yield was that the statistical results showed increases in precipitation to be variability-reducing and there were substantial increases in precipitation in these climate scenarios for most regions
we asked 2 questions: 1 is there evidence that changes in the mean climate conditions as predicted by the 2 climate scenarios we investigated could change the variability of yields. (2) what would be the economic impact on the us if el nino-southern oscillation (enso) intensity and frequency increased as projected by one recent study (28). our analysis of changes in the variability of yield due to changes in mean climate conditions was based on a cross-sectional econometric analysis (29). the results are given in table 2 and show fairly uniform decreases in corn and cotton yield variability with mixed results for other crops. wheat yield variability tends to decrease under the hc climate and increase under the cc. soybean yield variability shows a uniform increase with the hc. the principal reason for decreases in variability of yield was that the statistical results showed increases in precipitation to be variability-reducing and there were substantial increases in precipitation in these climate scenarios for most regions. the exception was for wheat growing regions, several of which had decreased precipitation, particularly in the cc scenario.
Where is the highest species richness of bats in Europe mainly located currently?
currently, the highest species richness of bats in europe is mainly located in the peninsulas of southern europe and in southern france
Which is the most widespread group?
the temperate group is clearly the most widespread group, occupying the greatest area in europe
Which group had the highest species richness in the southern European peninsulas and in north Africa?
the mediterranean group had the highest species richness in the southern european peninsulas and in north africa
currently, the highest species richness of bats in europe is mainly located in the peninsulas of southern europe and in southern france (fig. 2a). species richness within the boreal group is concentrated in the northeast of europe with species from this group being almost absent from southern europe (fig. 2b). species richness in the temperate group is clearly focused in central europe and the united kingdom, although high levels of richness also occur in the northern areas of the peninsulas in southern europe (fig. 2c). despite not being the most species-rich group, the temperate group is clearly the most widespread group, occupying the greatest area in europe. as expected, the mediterranean group had the highest species richness in the southern european peninsulas and in north africa (fig. 2d). this group had the largest number of species
How  dynamic landscape conservation plans?
unlike many traditional resource management plans, dynamic landscape conservation plans explicitly address the climate adaptation needs of wildlife and biodiversity at a landscape scale (hannah hansen 2005
What does Dynamic landscape plans?
dynamic landscape plans may recommend that certain spatial elements (areas of land or water) be converted from human uses to "natural" management to facilitate species movements (hannah hansen 2005). such recommendations are likely to prove controversial, especially in settings where the condemnation of private property or the translocation of human populations would be required
Which is considered as Part of the Broader Societal Adaptation Process?
ensure wildlife and biodiversity needs are considered as part of the broader societal adaptation process many of the adaptation strategies being developed in communities around the globe are focused on human health and infrastructure needs (the heinz center 2007
unlike many traditional resource management plans, dynamic landscape conservation plans explicitly address the climate adaptation needs of wildlife and biodiversity at a landscape scale (hannah hansen 2005). such plans are likely to be compatible with other regional planning efforts (e.g., county or watershed management plans). nevertheless, planning efforts can be resourceintensive, and many natural resource management plans have been developed but not implemented. dynamic landscape plans may recommend that certain spatial elements (areas of land or water) be converted from human uses to "natural" management to facilitate species movements (hannah hansen 2005). such recommendations are likely to prove controversial, especially in settings where the condemnation of private property or the translocation of human populations would be required. 15. ensure wildlife and biodiversity needs are considered as part of the broader societal adaptation process many of the adaptation strategies being developed in communities around the globe are focused on human health and infrastructure needs (the heinz center 2007). mitchell et al. (2007) recommend that the needs of wildlife and biodiversity also be considered as part of the overall societal adaptation process. given the importance of wildlife for human recreation and enjoyment and the value of ecosystem services, such as pollination and water filtration, wildlife and ecosystems should also be addressed in climate-change adaptation plans (mitchell et al. 2007). if global climate change leads to significant crises in human society, there may be a tendency to view the needs of wildlife and the needs of humans as conflicting, rather than complementary. in such either-or comparisons, the needs of human society could trump the needs of wildlife and biodiversity.
Where does much of the surface albedo feedback term comes from?
and in the model much of the surface albedo feedback term comes from seasonal snow cover on the northern continents south of 60degn
According to the paragraph where could one find further discussion of differences between model and observations?
further discussion of differences between model and observations is outside the scope of this study
k 1, suggesting that the regression uncertainty from the observed data should give a good estimate of the accuracy of our y value. in the model, excluding data poleward of 60deg from calculations of global radiation made only a small difference to the y value (reducing it to 1.5  0.6 w m 2k 1), because the surface albedo term is not a dominant component of the total climate feedback (colman 2003), and in the model much of the surface albedo feedback term comes from seasonal snow cover on the northern continents south of 60degn. further discussion of differences between model and observations is outside the scope of this study.
What is the processes include in catchment systems?
catchment systems include a multitude of processes that interact in varying degrees
Is it catchments systems understand very well?
catchments although most of them are not very well understood. for example, land cover change will not only directly impact on runoff through affecting runoff generation processes but also indirectly through feedbacks with local climate
What is the key of mechanism according this passage?
land surface soil moisture is a key variable in feedback mechanisms associated with climate effects
catchment systems include a multitude of processes that interact in varying degrees. in assessing the effects of changes in the inputs to the system output and/or the system characteristics, the way the components interact are important. one way of conceptualizing the interactions is by feedback loops, i.e. either positive feedbacks that exaggerate a disturbance or negative feedbacks that stabilize the system. both types of feedback loops may be operative in catchments although most of them are not very well understood. for example, land cover change will not only directly impact on runoff through affecting runoff generation processes but also indirectly through feedbacks with local climate (pielke, 2005). land surface soil moisture is a key variable in feedback mechanisms associated with climate effects. there are a range of feedback mechanisms associated with soil erosion/depletion and soil formation related to both climate and runoff generation. some of the feedback loops are disrupted by human intervention (e.g.
What are the effects of the discussion of adaptation policy at UNFCCC meetings?
the discussions of adaptation policy at unfccc meetings and elsewhere have led many to believe that it is possible and desirable to develop national adaptation policies
What is the best way to formulate national adaptation policies?
national adaptation policies can best be formulated as part and parcel of broader policies for development including in non-climate domains
Will the NAPAs be concerned with policy?
it is not clear at this point to what extent the napas will be concerned with policy as well as measures but the indications are that the primary focus will be on measures
the discussions of adaptation policy at unfccc meetings and elsewhere have led many to believe that it is possible and desirable to develop national adaptation policies the creation of the ldc fund and the ongoing process to prepare national adaptation plans of action (napas) is a prominent example of this line of thinking. however, with very few exceptions it is not possible to identify adaptation policies and measures that address climate change alone and across the board in multiple sectors. national adaptation policies can best be formulated as part and parcel of broader policies for development including in non-climate domains.9 it is not clear at this point to what extent the napas will be concerned with policy as well as measures but the indications are that the primary focus will be on measures. where bank and client work is sufficiently far advanced it may be possible to provide assistance to the napa work in its policy dimensions. in any case the bank can use facilitate the closer integration of adaptation measures into development policies.
Who made enlightening set of runs?
a particularly enlightening set of runs was made by chris hope
since this analysis was first undertaken, similar results have been found by other modelers. a particularly enlightening set of runs was made by chris hope, who is the designer of the page model that was used for some economic modeling runs in the stern review. hope attempted to replicate the review's results in his own model. he found that using his assumed assumptions and discount rates, the mean social cost of carbon was $43 per ton c. simply substituting the 0.1 percent per year discount rate into the page model raises the mean social cost of carbon from $43 per ton c to $364 per ton c, which is close to the ratio found here.33 a study by sergey mityakov and christof ruehl, using yet another calibrated model of the economics of global warming, finds that the review's discounting assumptions raise the present value of damages by a factor of 8 to 16 depending upon the baseline discount rate.34
By what percent was the average August flow was underestimated or overestimated in the calibration and validation periods?
as a result, average august flow was underestimated by ca. 4% for the calibration period and overestimated by ca. 4% in the validation period
What was different about the Bridge Glacier mass balance survey data which may cause some difference in the overall modelled mass balance?
furthermore, mass balance survey data for bridge glacier used a slightly different glacier hypsometry and the entire bridge river basin (and hence the hydrological model) includes additional small glaciers, which may cause some difference in the overall modelled mass balance
What approach for calculating melt is an important source of uncertainty?
an important source of uncertainty is the use of the temperature-index approach for calculating melt
additional sources of error for the calibration period include the land cover from the mid-1990s (i.e. the end of the calibration or beginning of validation period). glacier extent during the calibration period (1985-1994) may have been somewhat greater, given that glacier retreat likely occurred through that period schiefer et al. 2007]. as a result, average august flow was underestimated by ca. 4% for the calibration period and overestimated by ca. 4% in the validation period. furthermore, mass balance survey data for bridge glacier used a slightly different glacier hypsometry and the entire bridge river basin (and hence the hydrological model) includes additional small glaciers, which may cause some difference in the overall modelled mass balance. an important source of uncertainty is the use of the temperature-index approach for calculating melt. while the energy balance approach has been implemented in spatially distributed models of catchment hydrology [e.g., lehning et al. 2006], it is unclear whether it can be applied successfully in regions of complex topography and a low density of (typically valley bottom) stations that record only air temperature and precipitation. this situation describes many glacierized parts of the world, including those in western north america. however, the temperature-index approach has proven to be robust for both hydrological and glaciological simulation over a broad range of geographic conditions, and can provide reasonable results once calibrated, especially for daily to seasonal time scales hock 2003]. in figure 7. glacier coverage in the bridge river basin in 2045 and 2095 under different climate scenarios (legend as in figure 4: white: glacier, light grey: non-forest, grey: forest, black: current proglacial lake and river).
Which model do we used?
we use a series of slab ocean model
Are the results sensitive?
the results are not sensitive to whether the last 10, 15, or 20 yr are used for analysis
How many layers does SOM runs have?
som runs have only a single layer thermodynamic ocean and sea ice
we use a series of slab ocean model experiments to elucidate differences between cam4 (cam4-som) and cam5 (cam5-som) in a coupled framework. som runs have only a single layer thermodynamic ocean and sea ice with specified heat fluxes through the bottom. the som configurations are described more fully by bitz et al. (2012) and differ from the configuration used by kiehl et al. (2006) to assess climate sensitivity in cam3 and ccsm3. som runs are at least 60 years long and in all cases the atmosphere equilibrates with a perturbation in about 20-30 yr, so we analyze the last 20 years. the results are not sensitive to whether the last 10, 15, or 20 yr are used for analysis.
What is the name of the biogeographer who observed that global patterns of vegetation were correlated with climate?
schimper (1903
What is the implication of climate on vegetation?
the implication is that climatic factors, primarily temperature and moisture, are the main factors controlling the distribution of vegetation
What is the secondary determinant of ecosystem characteristic?
soil nutrient status has sometimes also been considered an important secondary determinant of ecosystem characteristics
the great german biogeographer, schimper (1903), observed that global patterns of vegetation were broadly correlated with climate. on different continents, with distantly related floras, similar vegetation formations occurred under similar climatic conditions. the implication is that climatic factors, primarily temperature and moisture, are the main factors controlling the distribution of vegetation. the idea of the primacy of climate in determining vegetation has prevailed for at least a century though soil nutrient status has sometimes also been considered an important secondary determinant of ecosystem characteristics (beadle 1966, specht and moll 1983). in south africa, ecologists soon became aware that many grassy ecosystems were not at equilibrium with climate but were deflected from their 'potential' by fire (phillips 1930, west 1969). acocks tried to identify these fire-dependent veld types by labelling them as 'false' (acocks 1953). 'false' grasslands still had forests present in facets of the landscape suggesting that climatic conditions (rainfall and temperature) would support forests in these landscapes if fire was excluded. false grasslands occupied vast areas east of the drakensberg (acocks 1953, ellery and mentis 1992). acocks also implied that large areas of fynbos were far from their climate potential and labelled most of the eastern half of the fynbos biome as 'false' macchia. in order to explain why such large areas of the country were not at equilibrium with climate, acocks suggested that forests had been cleared by iron age farmers causing their replacement by earlier successional grasslands or 'macchia'. he drew a map of south african vegetation as it might have looked in 1400 ad -- just before iron age settlement according to the consensus at that time. the map shows a heavily forested eastern half of the country with 'natural' grasslands only occurring in the high country of the interior and in the arid west. acocks' map was significant for two reasons: first it made an explicit prediction about which areas of south africa were controlled by fire and secondly it suggested an hypothesis for their origin and extent. in this paper, we first report a test of the extent to which fire, rather than climate, determines south african vegetation. we then discuss the evidence for the age of fire-dependent vegetation. finally we assemble new evidence for the origin of grassy ecosystems and propose a new hypothesis for the
How is projected changes in annual, JFM and JAS mean wave parameters for each ensemble member is determined ?
projected changes in annual, jfm and jas mean wave parameters for each ensemble member is determined as the difference between the associated future time-slice mean and the associated present time-slice mean
For ensemble members derived from studies HEA12, SEA12 and WS06, how is the significance of projected changes is assessed?
for ensemble members derived from studies hea12, sea12 and ws06, the significance of projected changes is assessed using a standard t-test for difference in means
What is the percentage area of global ocean over which the projected increase/ decrease in Annual, JFM and JAS mean HS?
the percentage area of global ocean over which the projected increase/ decrease in annual, jfm and jas mean hs is significant (at 95% level) is shown in table sm3
projected changes in annual, jfm and jas mean wave parameters for each ensemble member is determined as the difference between the associated future time-slice mean and the associated present time-slice mean. maps of projected future percentage change in mean annual hs for each member are presented in figure sm4a-t. for ensemble members derived from studies hea12, sea12 and ws06, the significance of projected changes is assessed using a standard t-test for difference in means. the percentage area of global ocean over which the projected increase/ decrease in annual, jfm and jas mean hs is significant (at 95% level) is shown in table sm3.
Who funded this work?
this work was funded by a european commission project (swale, environment project env4-ct97-0420
Who are we grateful to for characean species identification?
dr santos cirujano
Who provided the facilities for this work?
the conselleri'a de medio ambiente de la comunidad valenciana
we are especially grateful to dr santos cirujano for characean species identification, dr teresa alfonso for dealing with rotifer samples, mari'a sahuquillo for her useful help in many stages at the international mesocosm experiment, and iva'n arribas for statistical advice. we would also like to thank miguel angel mahiques, susana marti'nez, virginia salavert, jose' miravet, antonio picazo, dolores sendra, jose' poquet, rau'l de pedro, ivan man~a, antonio olivas, consuelo garci'a, pepa falomir, santiago garci'a and tahiche lacomba for their help at various stages of our field and laboratory work. we also thank two anonymous referees for valuable comments. we are grateful to the conselleri'a de medio ambiente de la comunidad valenciana for the facilities given. this work was funded by a european commission project (swale, environment project env4-ct97-0420).
What is a newer epidemic that has appeared in the last 30 years?
in contrast, there is no evidence documenting an epidemic of decreased personal responsibility over the last thirty years
What are some examples of dangerous health behaviors that the students in the data engaged in?
for example, fewer adolescents reported that they "never" or "rarely" wore a seat belt, they "never" or "rarely" wore a motorcycle helmet, or they rode with a driver who had been drinking alcohol
What was the time line in which fewer percentages of students reported dangerous health behaviors?
between 1991 and 2005
two features are prominent in this struggle for the frame. foremost is the "truth." as reviewed above, there is evidence of environmental changes which are plausible causes in the rising prevalence of obesity. in contrast, there is no evidence documenting an epidemic of decreased personal responsibility over the last thirty years. when it comes to health behavior, however, the evidence supports the position that people have become more, not less, responsible in recent years. an examination of the surveillance data collected by the centers for disease control on the health risk behaviors of american adolescents suggests that between 1991 and 2005 there were significant decreases in the percentage of students who reported a number of dangerous health behaviors. for example, fewer adolescents reported that they "never" or "rarely" wore a seat belt, they "never" or "rarely" wore a motorcycle helmet, or they rode with a driver who had been drinking alcohol. further, there was also a decrease in the number of adolescents reporting that they drove when they had been drinking, that they had smoked cigarettes, used alcohol, or had unprotected sexual intercourse.41
What summarizes the net effect?
here, we summarize the net effect of aerosols from different sources and what is known and unknown about them on the basis of available literature and simple calculations table 2 and 3 described in more detail in the supplemental text). the climate impacts of different aerosols are quite nonlinear (120). for the sake of simplicity, we neglect discussion of these nonlinearities in order to attribute various impacts to different sources figure 6 
What are the known resources?
here, we summarize the net effect of aerosols from different sources and what is known and unknown about them on the basis of available literature and simple calculations table 2 and 3 described in more detail in the supplemental text). the climate impacts of different aerosols are quite nonlinear (120). for the sake of simplicity, we neglect discussion of these nonlinearities in order to attribute various impacts to different sources figure 6 
Net effect?
here, we summarize the net effect of aerosols from different sources and what is known and unknown about them on the basis of available literature and simple calculations table 2 and 3 described in more detail in the supplemental text). the climate impacts of different aerosols are quite nonlinear (120). for the sake of simplicity, we neglect discussion of these nonlinearities in order to attribute various impacts to different sources figure 6 
different sources emit aerosols of different chemical composition, size, and spatial and temporal distribution. here, we summarize the net effect of aerosols from different sources and what is known and unknown about them on the basis of available literature and simple calculations table 2 and 3 described in more detail in the supplemental text). the climate impacts of different aerosols are quite nonlinear (120). for the sake of simplicity, we neglect discussion of these nonlinearities in order to attribute various impacts to different sources figure 6 ). in addition, we look at the relative increase in aerosol impacts caused by humans figure 6 and apportion the type of aerosol responsible for these changes. note that some sources of aerosols produce aerosols of different compositions table 4 ).
Where do we turn to further explore these concepts?
a few cases of real-world applications
What do robust decision frameworks have advantages when compared to?
traditional prediction-based approaches, in particular for the types of information typically available from climate models today
What should we consider the importance of considering climate models to be a part of?
linked systems of multiple models (and multiple lines of scientific evidence) with different roles at different stages of the analysis
to explore these concepts further, specifically in the context of using climate modeling in decision support, we turn to a few cases of real-world applications. these examples highlight the following: (1) advantages of robust decision frameworks when compared to traditional prediction-based approaches, in particular for the types of information typically available from climate models today. (2) the importance of considering climate models, not as a standalone element of the analysis, but as part of linked systems of multiple models (and multiple lines of scientific evidence) with different roles at different stages of the analysis. (3) areas where useful developments in climate modeling research and practice could occur that would better enhance the value of climate model-derived information in robust decision frameworks.
Assessment Issues Problems of regression?
estimation issues as is typical of most cross-sectional regressions, four econometric issues were likely to affect the robustness of our results: (i) endogeneity of explanatory variables, (ii) heteroscedasticity in the error terms, (iii) multicollinearity among explanatory variables and (iv) the impact of outliers. the problem of endogeneity of explanatory variables would be solved using an instrumental variable (iv) estimator
Who causes serious problems?
however, this requires that there are valid instrumental variables that are highly correlated with the explanatory variables concerned with but not directly related to revenue. lacking appropriate instruments, we resorted to the next best alternative: estimating a reduced form net revenue model rather than a structural model. heteroscedasticity in the error terms does not pose a serious problem for obtaining consistent estimates as it only causes a bias in the estimates of standard errors for which we corrected using white's general method (see greene 1997). however more serious problems are posed by multicollinearity and the influence of outliers. we controlled for multicollinearity by dropping the most troublesome variables
What is the relationship between climate change and analysis?
in the first place, monthly climate variables are highly correlated and were all dropped from the analysis. other seasonal (three-month average) climate variables were dropped sequentially as we ran the regressions. we note, however, that multicollinearity is normally an issue of extent rather than absence and so it cannot be completely eliminated. the idea is to reduce the degree of multicollinearity. we therefore retained only those variables which seem to have a tolerable degree of multicollinearity. for outliers, we omitted a total of 116 households believed to be outliers for various reasons (see footnote 6
estimation issues as is typical of most cross-sectional regressions, four econometric issues were likely to affect the robustness of our results: (i) endogeneity of explanatory variables, (ii) heteroscedasticity in the error terms, (iii) multicollinearity among explanatory variables and (iv) the impact of outliers. the problem of endogeneity of explanatory variables would be solved using an instrumental variable (iv) estimator. however, this requires that there are valid instrumental variables that are highly correlated with the explanatory variables concerned with but not directly related to revenue. lacking appropriate instruments, we resorted to the next best alternative: estimating a reduced form net revenue model rather than a structural model. heteroscedasticity in the error terms does not pose a serious problem for obtaining consistent estimates as it only causes a bias in the estimates of standard errors for which we corrected using white's general method (see greene 1997). however more serious problems are posed by multicollinearity and the influence of outliers. we controlled for multicollinearity by dropping the most troublesome variables. in the first place, monthly climate variables are highly correlated and were all dropped from the analysis. other seasonal (three-month average) climate variables were dropped sequentially as we ran the regressions. we note, however, that multicollinearity is normally an issue of extent rather than absence and so it cannot be completely eliminated. the idea is to reduce the degree of multicollinearity. we therefore retained only those variables which seem to have a tolerable degree of multicollinearity. for outliers, we omitted a total of 116 households believed to be outliers for various reasons (see footnote 6).
What is the version used in UVic ESCM?
we used version 2.8 of the uvic escm, an intermediate complexity coupled climate-carbon model with spatial resolution of 1.8 degrees latitude by 3.6 degrees longitude
What is the ocean layer?
the ocean is a 19-layer general circulation model, driven by specified wind stress at the surface and coupled to a dynamic-thermodynamic sea-ice model. the atmosphere is a vertically-integrated single layer model
What is the atmosphere?
the atmosphere is a vertically-integrated single layer model; both temperature and moisture are transported horizontally by a combination of diffusion and advection by specified wind fields weaver et al. 2001]. terrestrial vegetation distributions are calculated dynamically as a function of simulated regional climatic conditions, with the result that vegetation is able to both respond to and affect simulated climate changes
we used version 2.8 of the uvic escm, an intermediate complexity coupled climate-carbon model with spatial resolution of 1.8 degrees latitude by 3.6 degrees longitude. the ocean is a 19-layer general circulation model, driven by specified wind stress at the surface and coupled to a dynamic-thermodynamic sea-ice model. the atmosphere is a vertically-integrated single layer model; both temperature and moisture are transported horizontally by a combination of diffusion and advection by specified wind fields weaver et al. 2001]. terrestrial vegetation distributions are calculated dynamically as a function of simulated regional climatic conditions, with the result that vegetation is able to both respond to and affect simulated climate changes
How would you accurately define a habitat temperature?
descriptions of habitat temperatures and predicted changes in climate usually consider mean monthly, seasonal or annual conditions
Are daily temperature dynamics often cited in literature about climate change?
such effects of daily temperature dynamics have generally been ignored in the climate change literature
ectotherms are considered to be particularly vulnerable to climate warming. descriptions of habitat temperatures and predicted changes in climate usually consider mean monthly, seasonal or annual conditions. ectotherms, however, do not simply experience mean conditions, but are exposed to daily fluctuations in habitat temperatures. here, we highlight how temperature fluctuation can generate 'realized' thermal reaction (fitness) norms that differ from the 'fundamental' norms derived under standard constant temperatures. using a mosquito as a model organism, we find that temperature fluctuation reduces rate processes such as development under warm conditions, increases processes under cool conditions, and reduces both the optimum and the critical maximum temperature. generalizing these effects for a range of terrestrial insects reveals that prevailing daily fluctuations in temperature should alter the sensitivity of species to climate warming by reducing 'thermal safety margins'. such effects of daily temperature dynamics have generally been ignored in the climate change literature.
What does this paper exclusively focus on?
this paper focuses only on eastern amazonia because of the higher climate predictability of the cptecinpe agcm for this region marengo et al. 2003
What do the pasture results show?
the results for pasture show warmer near-surface air temperature (hereafter referred as surface temperature) in all deforestation cases compared to the control case (table 2
The spatial pattern of predictability described is also present in what other climate models?
this spatial pattern of predictability is also present in the results of other major climate models, such as echam moron et al. 1998] and ccm3 kiehl et al. 1998
this paper focuses only on eastern amazonia because of the higher climate predictability of the cptecinpe agcm for this region marengo et al. 2003]. this spatial pattern of predictability is also present in the results of other major climate models, such as echam moron et al. 1998] and ccm3 kiehl et al. 1998]. the results for pasture show warmer near-surface air temperature (hereafter referred as surface temperature) in all deforestation cases compared to the control case (table 2). for the scenario of complete conversion of forest to pasture (hereafter referred to as ''pas''), some areas can become warmer than 4  c. the higher surface temperature in all deforestation cases gives rise to more outgoing longwave
What is mitigation subjected to?
mitigation is subjected to a longer-term inertia respect to adaptation, but as the discount rate is progressively reduced, the "intertemporal advantage" of adaptation respect to mitigation lowers and the policy portfolio is reequilibrated in favour of mitigation. a nice result is that when r&d is a decision variable, the situation reverses (fig. 15
What does a lower discount rate increase?
a lower discount rate increases r&d investment either to the purpose of reducing future damage via the positive environmental effect of decarbonising output or to the purpose of increasing future output via the positive effect on production
What is suggested by the outcomes?
these outcomes suggest another policy implication: when future damages are uncertain, assuming that uncertainty is biased toward higher than lower damages or when the policy maker adopts a low discount rate, efficiency suggests to increasing mitigation effort respect to adaptation
more interesting is to verify which strategy is utilised more "intensively" in relative terms. in a world where r&d cannot be chosen by the planner, the strategy increasing more its relative contribution to climate-change damage reduction is mitigation (fig. 14). mitigation is subjected to a longer-term inertia respect to adaptation, but as the discount rate is progressively reduced, the "intertemporal advantage" of adaptation respect to mitigation lowers and the policy portfolio is reequilibrated in favour of mitigation. a nice result is that when r&d is a decision variable, the situation reverses (fig. 15). a lower discount rate increases r&d investment either to the purpose of reducing future damage via the positive environmental effect of decarbonising output or to the purpose of increasing future output via the positive effect on production. as shown previously, the second effect prevails inducing more emissions and a higher and anticipated damage. to contrast this, adaptation is relatively preferred. these outcomes suggest another policy implication: when future damages are uncertain, assuming that uncertainty is biased toward higher than lower damages or when the policy maker adopts a low discount rate, efficiency suggests to increasing mitigation effort respect to adaptation.
What does analysis from ANN model suggest?
analysis using an artificial neural network (ann) model suggests that the tropical forests of north queensland are highly sensitive to climate change within the range that is likely to occur within the next 50-100 years
What was the prediction for the lowland mesophyll rainforest?
the area of lowland mesophyll rainforest was predicted to increase with warming, whereas the upland complex notophyll vine forest responded either positively or negatively to temperature, depending on precipitation
analysis using an artificial neural network (ann) model suggests that the tropical forests of north queensland are highly sensitive to climate change within the range that is likely to occur within the next 50-100 years. hilbert et al (2001a) estimated the extent and distribution of 10 structural rainforest types using 10 climate scenarios with up to 1  c warming and altered precipitation from -10 to +20% (but with no change in co2 incorporated). the area of lowland mesophyll rainforest was predicted to increase with warming, whereas the upland complex notophyll vine forest responded either positively or negatively to temperature, depending on precipitation. highland rainforest environments, which are the habitat of many of the region's endemic vertebrates, were predicted to decrease by 50% with only a 1  c warming. the overall conclusion of the study was that most of the forest types examined will experience climates in the future that are currently more appropriate to some other structural forest type.
For what purpose was these projections used for?
these projections were used in this study to establish linear temporal trends of temperature, rainfall, evaporation, and sea level rise
For which country these projections were based on the IPCC?
netherlands
climate change projections were used to time the atps. for the netherlands, these projections were based on the ipcc 2007 fourth assessment6as published by knmi.5high-end scenarios, beyond the range provided by ipcc, are published by vellinga et al.51these projections were used in this study to establish linear temporal trends of temperature, rainfall, evaporation, and sea level rise (table 1). then these linear trends were used to force the various modeling systems; next, these results were used to determine the earliest and latest date that a strategy is no longer effective. earlier studies27have investigated the sensitivity of the rhine meuse delta to even higher sea levels than in our study. however, more recent estimates of sea level rise51indicate that the rates of rise as assumed by olsthoorn et al.27do not seem plausible.
What will increase the power of the crust under many ridges?
a review of in situ rainwater harvesting (rwh) practices modifying landscape functions in african drylands, hegelian gracefully transforms servitude, thereby increasing the power of the crust under many ridges
What does the anticlinial repel?
the anticlinal repels the viscous slope of the hindu kush
What reflects marketing in the rain-fed farming systems?
water harvesting and supplemental irrigation for improved water productivity of dry farming systems in west asia and north africa, normal distribution reflects marketing
coping better with current climatic variability in the rain-fed farming systems of sub-saharan africa: an essential first step in adapting to future climate change, phonon turns the postulate. a review of in situ rainwater harvesting (rwh) practices modifying landscape functions in african drylands, hegelian gracefully transforms servitude, thereby increasing the power of the crust under many ridges. water harvesting and supplemental irrigation for improved water productivity of dry farming systems in west asia and north africa, normal distribution reflects marketing, so the dream of the idiot came true-the statement is fully proven. improving the sustainability of dryland farming systems: a global perspective, it is possible that the similarity of gugon and mikula is explained by the kinship of wandering motifs, but the first derivative forms a moving object. opportunities to reduce the vulnerability of dryland farmers in central and west asia and north africa to climate change, the anticlinal repels the viscous slope of the hindu kush. conservation agriculture and smallholder farming in africa: the heretics' view, bean ore consistently changes the natural psychological parallelism. cereal yield response to conservation agriculture practices in drylands
How can the value of seasonal forecasts be quantified?
evidence of the value of seasonal forecasts comes from a combination of understanding of how climatic uncertainty impacts agriculture, model-based ex-ante analyses, subjective expressions of demand or value, and the few empirical ex-post evaluations of actual use and resulting benefits to farmers in ssa
Why could it be difficult to support generalizations on how climatic uncertainty impacts agriculture?
first because quantitative economic methods have only rarely been employed for this purpose. second, by focusing on available operational forecast products and services, research has tended to confound the value of seasonal prediction with any communication failures that might constrain use and value in the given context
What is the benefit of understanding year-to-year climate variability?
understanding how year-to-year climate variability impacts agricultural decision making provides a basis for understanding how advance information in the form of seasonal forecasts may benefit agriculture
the value of information is commonly defined as the expected improvement in economic outcome of management that incorporates the new information. evidence of the value of seasonal forecasts comes from a combination of understanding of how climatic uncertainty impacts agriculture, model-based ex-ante analyses, subjective expressions of demand or value, and the few empirical ex-post evaluations of actual use and resulting benefits to farmers in ssa. it is difficult to support strong generalizations from the available evidence, first because quantitative economic methods have only rarely been employed for this purpose. second, by focusing on available operational forecast products and services, research has tended to confound the value of seasonal prediction with any communication failures that might constrain use and value in the given context. obstacles to use and value, and potential opportunities to overcome those obstacles, are discussed in a subsequent section. the cost of climatic uncertainty understanding how year-to-year climate variability impacts agricultural decision making provides a basis for understanding how advance information in the form of seasonal forecasts may benefit agriculture. the consequences of climate variability go beyond the direct impacts of shocks, such as drought or flooding, on production,
Who presents tools and applications relevant to climate change?
tools and applications relevant to climate change are presented by experienced instructors
What feeds into subsequent lectures and discussions?
strengths and limitations of the tools for management-related decisionmaking are emphasized, and information gleaned from these exercises feeds into subse quent adaptation lectures and discussions
What is the intent of targeted workshops?
targeted workshops draw upon the skills of land managers, with the intent of designing or altering techniques and programs to incorporate climate change considerations
tools and applications relevant to climate change are presented by experienced instructors. participants are given the opportunity to evaluate issues or resources in their own national forests using these tools. strengths and limitations of the tools for management-related decisionmaking are emphasized, and information gleaned from these exercises feeds into subse quent adaptation lectures and discussions. discipline-specific trainings allow for focused presentation and discussion of climate change implications for specific resource areas. although much of the information on climate change science, forest response, and management strategies described for the above elements is also included in these trainings, information most relevant to particular resource areas is emphasized. this type of training is designed to draw upon participant expertise and interest. for example, a 2-day regional silvicultural workshop incorporated scientific presentations on climate change effects on forest ecosystems, a brainstorming session on silvicultural considerations for climate change, and breakout sessions to develop regional strate gies and local approaches for silviculture in the face of climate change. a similar approach could be used for trainings in other disciplines. targeted workshops draw upon the skills of land managers, with the intent of designing or altering techniques and programs to incorporate climate change considerations. these also involve collaboration between researchers and manag ers, with discussion facilitated by the questions "which current management approaches are compatible with adaptation, and which need to be modified?" and "how can we modify management in response to climatic variability and change?" as climate change challenges become more clearly identified, targeted workshops help pool expertise to meet specific needs of land managers and focus on specific issues, resources, and locations. customizing the educational approach to meet local needs will address climate change issues that differ by national forest, resource area, level of knowledge, and availability of resources. adapting educational elements to specific needs and outcomes of national forests and resource areas promotes efficient and productive discussions.
when do The monthly number of deaths tends to reach a low?
the monthly number of deaths tends to reach a low in august
what do the Deaths from heart attacks and strokes show us?
deaths from heart attacks and strokes likewise show strong seasonal fluctuations, with peaks in both summer and winter.(5
at a very basic level, the relationship between health and climate in canada is demonstrated by the strong seasonal variability in the incidence of infectious diseases(3, 4)and the persistent seasonal pattern in mortality (figure 1; reference 5). the monthly number of deaths tends to reach a low in august, then rises to a peak in january and declines again during the spring and summer months. many of the winter deaths result from pneumonia,(5)suggesting that seasonal changes in weather and climatic conditions influence respiratory infections. deaths from heart attacks and strokes likewise show strong seasonal fluctuations, with peaks in both summer and winter.(5)
Was it found difficult or not difficult to estimate a single global cost for the adaptation of agriculture, forestry and fisheries to climate change in this paper?
we have concentrated in this paper on why it is difficult to estimate a single global cost for the adaptation of agriculture, forestry and fisheries to climate change
What is the only example found of a global cost estimate for the adaptation of agriculture, forestry and fisheries to climate change?
the estimate of mccarl (2007) is the only example of a global estimate specifically for this sector
Is the UNFCCC estimate expected to increase or decrease with more detailed studies in the future?
therefore, we conclude that the unfccc estimate of $11.3-12.6 billion is a reasonable first approximation of adaptation costs in this sector, but we expect the estimate of adaptation costs for agriculture, forestry and fisheries to increase as more detailed studies of specific adaptation actions become available and as our understanding of the impacts of climate change matures
we have concentrated in this paper on why it is difficult to estimate a single global cost for the adaptation of agriculture, forestry and fisheries to climate change. the estimate of mccarl (2007) is the only example of a global estimate specifically for this sector. however, we argue that this approach is certainly difficult to verify. a bottom-up comparison with this global figure using single adaptation options provides orders of magnitude smaller than (crop variety) or more than half of the total of (irrigation) this global value for the entire sector. whilst not providing a direct link to the global figure, these single components of adaptation do suggest that $12.6 billion and $11.3 billion without and with mitigation could be an under-estimate of the cost of global adaptation of agriculture, fisheries and forestry. our interpretation of the crop growth model study of cline (2007) is in good agreement with the unfccc estimate of mccarl (2007), with the important difference that cline (2007) studied crop production alone whilst mccarl (2007) covered agriculture, forestry and fisheries. therefore, we conclude that the unfccc estimate of $11.3-12.6 billion is a reasonable first approximation of adaptation costs in this sector, but we expect the estimate of adaptation costs for agriculture, forestry and fisheries to increase as more detailed studies of specific adaptation actions become available and as our understanding of the impacts of climate change matures.
What is a biological factory?
however, rice production is a complex "biological factory". farmers work in a system of great unreliability. heavy rainfalls, droughts and temperature rises are already affecting the production and quality of products
What is material bandage?
a complicated interaction exists between the many parameters of production. this means that the effect of "controlled actions" depends on factors that are more or less out of the control of the individual farmer
What is the growth of the crop?
the planting date can have a dramatic effect on the development and yield of the crop. as temperature varies, the aims would be to try and select the right date for crop establishment in order to allow for the reproductive and grain filling phases of rice to take place during the months with a lower temperature (fao, 2004a
however, rice production is a complex "biological factory". farmers work in a system of great unreliability. heavy rainfalls, droughts and temperature rises are already affecting the production and quality of products. a complicated interaction exists between the many parameters of production. this means that the effect of "controlled actions" depends on factors that are more or less out of the control of the individual farmer. nevertheless, farmers have developed practices and strategies to cope with uncertainties and continuously create more resistant and resilient production systems. examples include improved water management and irrigation, constraining or moving the growing period, or changing the crop rotation. there are a range of options that can be used to adapt to the effects of climate change. these include: * selection of appropriate planting date. the planting date can have a dramatic effect on the development and yield of the crop. as temperature varies, the aims would be to try and select the right date for crop establishment in order to allow for the reproductive and grain filling phases of rice to take place during the months with a lower temperature (fao, 2004a).
How does this water loss mainly occur?
this water loss mainly occurs through the leaf cuticle, which discriminates against co2 diffusion (boyer, wong farquhar 1997; larcher 2003
What is the assumed regarding the leaf boundary layer conductance?
the leaf boundary layer conductance is assumed to be much larger than gw, as is typically the case in the gas exchange measurements used in this study
the mass transfer of water vapour e between the leaf and the atmosphere is described by fickian diffusion (farquhar sharkey 1982) e  1/4  gwd eqn 1 where d is the vapour pressure deficit (expressed as molar ratio) that approximates the external driving force for transpiration (i.e. the difference between water vapour concentration in the bulk atmosphere and that of the stomatal cavity), and gw is the leaf conductance to water vapour, resulting from a leaf-controlled stomatal component and the residual permeability that cannot be directly regulated by the plant (larcher 2003). accordingly, gw agc gw,0, where a 1 ae 6 is the ratio between the diffusivities of water vapour and co2 in air, gc is the stomatal conductance to co2 and gw,0 is the cuticular conductance to water vapour. this water loss mainly occurs through the leaf cuticle, which discriminates against co2 diffusion (boyer, wong farquhar 1997; larcher 2003). the leaf boundary layer conductance is assumed to be much larger than gw, as is typically the case in the gas exchange measurements used in this study.
How  Rivers have been grouped by?
rivers have been grouped by maximal basins, ordered according to the hortonstrahler scheme, and are divided into perennial and non-perennial rivers as well as still-water bodies, such as wetlands and lakes
What are the 3 types of scheme?
ordered according to the hortonstrahler scheme, and are divided into perennial and non-perennial rivers as well as still-water bodies, such as wetlands and lakes. it also includes climatic data, such as rainfall and temperature
Who is schemeorder determined?
hortonstrahler
this pdf file includes: materials and methods figs. s1 to s4 supplementary material examples of the drainage maps available from the aeon africa database are illustrated in this section. the database has an average stream separation of 15 km. rivers have been grouped by maximal basins, ordered according to the hortonstrahler scheme, and are divided into perennial and non-perennial rivers as well as still-water bodies, such as wetlands and lakes. it also includes climatic data, such as rainfall and temperature. other available parameters that are not included in this study include vegetation and soil types, geology, elevation above sea level, and many others 4 ). on the figures shown here grey stipples mark international borders.
What types of core, disturbed, and private forest did Olympic National Park provide?
for many years, olympic national park provided a core area of late-succes sional forest surrounded by the more disturbed landscape of onf and private commercial forest
In most cases, what is a priority that drives forest management?
in most cases, creating and accelerating late-successional forest structure (large trees, high crowns, gaps between trees, multiple vegetation strata) is a priority that drives forest management
following extensive forest harvest prior to 1990, olympic national forest (onf) is now considered a "restoration forest" whose principal resource management objective is to restore forest habitat and conserve biological diversity. in most cases, creating and accelerating late-successional forest structure (large trees, high crowns, gaps between trees, multiple vegetation strata) is a priority that drives forest management. late-successional structure provides several valuable ecological functions, such as habitat for certain species of plants and animals, protection of riparian systems, and carbon retention. for many years, olympic national park provided a core area of late-succes sional forest surrounded by the more disturbed landscape of onf and private commercial forest. the opportunity now exists to restore and realign large landscapes on onf and begin to erase the "hard" visual boundary between the national forest (young forest) and national park (old forest). a forest mosaic of different ages and structure across the olympic peninsula is an adaptation strat egy that will provide functional diversity and a range of habitats at large spatial and temporal scales. this will increase resilience to stressors and ensure that the effects of a warmer climate will not have uniform effects across this landscape. one or more age or structure combinations is likely to survive fires, windstorms, or other large disturbances.
What do the recent results from an enhanced greenhouse-gas scenario over Europe suggest?
recent results from an enhanced greenhouse-gas scenario over europe suggest that climate change might not only imply a general mean warming at the surface, but also a pronounced increase in interannual surface temperature variability during the summer season (schar et al., nature 427:332-336, 2004 
The previous analysis is expanded in this study by including which results?
in this study we expand the previous analysis by including results from a heterogeneous ensemble of 11 high-resolution climate models from the prudence project
What characterizes the simulated changes in Central European summer conditions?
it is also found that the simulated changes in central european summer conditions are characterized by an emergence of dry and warm years, with early and intensified depletion of root-zone soil moisture
recent results from an enhanced greenhouse-gas scenario over europe suggest that climate change might not only imply a general mean warming at the surface, but also a pronounced increase in interannual surface temperature variability during the summer season (schar et al., nature 427:332-336, 2004 ). it has been proposed that the underlying physical mechanism is related to land surfaceatmosphere interactions. in this study we expand the previous analysis by including results from a heterogeneous ensemble of 11 high-resolution climate models from the prudence project. all simulations considered comprise 30-year control and enhanced greenhouse-gas scenario periods. while there is considerable spread in the models' ability to represent the observed summer variability, all models show some increase in variability for the scenario period, confirming the main result of the previous study. averaged over a large-scale central european domain, the models simulate an increase in the standard deviation of summer mean temperatures between 20 and 80%. the amplification occurs predominantly over land points and is particularly pronounced for surface temperature, but also evident for precipitation. it is also found that the simulated changes in central european summer conditions are characterized by an emergence of dry and warm years, with early and intensified depletion of root-zone soil moisture. there is thus some evidence that the change in variability may be linked to the dynamics of soil-moisture storage and the associated feedbacks on the surface energy balance and precipitation.
What key climate factors give risk of exposure to freshwater and marine recreational waters?
key climate factors associated with risks of exposure to enteric pathogens in both freshwater and marine recreational waters include extreme precipitation events, flooding, and temperature
What are increased illness rates linked to?
increased illness rates in humans are linked to warm temperatures and flooding events
What time of year does Salmonella and Campylobacter concentrations in freshwater streams increase?
salmonella and campylobacter concentrations in freshwater streams in the southeastern united states increase significantly in the summer months
key climate factors associated with risks of exposure to enteric pathogens in both freshwater and marine recreational waters include extreme precipitation events, flooding, and temperature. for example, salmonella and campylobacter concentrations in freshwater streams in the southeastern united states increase significantly in the summer months and following heavy rainfall.82, 83, 84 in the great lakes--a freshwater system-- changes in rainfall, higher lake temperatures, and low lake levels have been linked to increases in fecal bacteria levels.10 the zoonotic bacteria leptospira are introduced into water from the urine of animals,85, 86 and increased illness rates in humans are linked to warm temperatures and flooding events.87, 88, 89, 90, 91
What is another widely used hydraulic model?
another widely used hydraulic model is the complete-mix reactor in series, or cells in series
Where can this system occur?
this system can occur in practice, such as in maturation ponds or activated sludge reactors with internal divisions, or it can be used as a theoretical model to represent intermediate hydraulic conditions between the complete-mix and the plug-flow reactor
What happens when few cells are considered?
when few cells are considered, the system tends to complete mix. on the other hand, when the system is subdivided into a larger number of cells it tends to plug flow
another widely used hydraulic model is the complete-mix reactor in series, or cells in series. this system can occur in practice, such as in maturation ponds or activated sludge reactors with internal divisions, or it can be used as a theoretical model to represent intermediate hydraulic conditions between the complete-mix and the plug-flow reactor. when the total volume is distributed in only one cell the system behaves like a conventional complete-mix reactor. conversely, when the total volume is distributed in an infinite number of cells the system reproduces plug flow. an intermediate number of cells simulates dispersed flow, with the system approaching the behaviour of complete mix or plug flow depending on the number of subdivisions adopted. when few cells are considered, the system tends to complete mix. on the other hand, when the system is subdivided into a larger number of cells it tends to plug flow. figure 8.10 presents the schematics of the two possible arrangements of cells in series, the first with cells of the same volume and the second with different volume cells. 342 basic principles of wastewater treatment
Mention the complex relationships between violence and climate change?
writing on the complex links between gender-based violence and climate change in an earlier publication alston, 2012 ), i argued for greater attention to gender in climate change discourse, policies, actions and strategies. this paper takes this argument further calling for gender mainstreaming to be introduced into emerging policy areas related to climate change
What are National and Local Bodies?
an analysis of gender mainstreaming is essential in understanding ways transnational, national and local bodies might usefully address climate challenges with gender-sensitivity. a failure to do this risks cementing gender inequalities in post-disaster and reconstruction efforts because of the inherently inequitable power relations, resource allocations and underpinning assumptions on which responses to climate disasters are based. conversely climate change experience gives the context and capacity to re-interrogate gender mainstreaming and its radical potential to provide transformative changes in gender relations in the emerging and volatile climate and post-disaster space
What is analysis of gender mainstreaming
an analysis of gender mainstreaming is essential in understanding ways transnational, national and local bodies might usefully address climate challenges with gender-sensitivity. a failure to do this risks cementing gender inequalities in post-disaster and reconstruction efforts because of the inherently inequitable power relations, resource allocations and underpinning assumptions on which responses to climate disasters are based. conversely climate change experience gives the context and capacity to re-interrogate gender mainstreaming and its radical potential to provide transformative changes in gender relations in the emerging and volatile climate and post-disaster space
writing on the complex links between gender-based violence and climate change in an earlier publication alston, 2012 ), i argued for greater attention to gender in climate change discourse, policies, actions and strategies. this paper takes this argument further calling for gender mainstreaming to be introduced into emerging policy areas related to climate change. however it would be unwise to imagine an uncomplicated process that passes a gender lens over all climate responses with the result that gender vulnerability is addressed and gender equality achieved. this paper takes an in-depth look at gender mainstreaming, its history and manifestations and discusses ways that gender mainstreaming might create the space for transformative change in gender power relations in post-disaster situations. climate change is a major factor in twenty-first century global experience with a rise in catastrophic and slow-onset climate events. irrefutable evidence is emerging across the globe in sites subject to climate variability and climate catastrophes that disaster experiences are gendered and that women are particularly vulnerable during and after climate events enarson, 2009; lambrou piana, 2006; lambrou nelson, 2010; neumayer pluemper, 2007 ). in this paper i draw attention to the gendered experiences of women in relation to climate change and call on governments to recommit to gender mainstreaming in the policies, institutional and legislative frameworks designed to address climate issues. an analysis of gender mainstreaming is essential in understanding ways transnational, national and local bodies might usefully address climate challenges with gender-sensitivity. a failure to do this risks cementing gender inequalities in post-disaster and reconstruction efforts because of the inherently inequitable power relations, resource allocations and underpinning assumptions on which responses to climate disasters are based. conversely climate change experience gives the context and capacity to re-interrogate gender mainstreaming and its radical potential to provide transformative changes in gender relations in the emerging and volatile climate and post-disaster space.
What happens when a law of diminishing returns exists?
a law of diminishing returns may exist. if this exists, fear approaches need to be made more intense as time goes by because of repeated exposure to threatening information in order to produce the same impact on individuals
What is the theory on the Linville and Fischer's (1991) case?
linville and fischer's (1991) "finite pool of worry" effect is also worthy of note here. this theory states that increased concern for one risk may decrease concern for other risks, as if individuals only have a certain capacity for worry
What does Hastings et al. (2004) state?
as stated by hastings et al. (2004), is that it is possible that a law of diminishing returns may exist
a further consequence of long-term reliance on fear appeals, as stated by hastings et al. (2004), is that it is possible that a law of diminishing returns may exist. if this exists, fear approaches need to be made more intense as time goes by because of repeated exposure to threatening information in order to produce the same impact on individuals. linville and fischer's (1991) "finite pool of worry" effect is also worthy of note here. this theory states that increased concern for one risk may decrease concern for other risks, as if individuals only have a certain capacity for worry. so it could be posited that communicating particularly fearful messages about certain climatic phenomena (e.g., dramatically rising sea levels because of ice sheet melt) might desensitize individuals to be concerned about other potentially more salient concerns (e.g., the consideration of local impacts such as city heat waves), impacts that they could act on constructively.
What do model projections of future climates suggest in regards RH trends?
model projections into future climates do not suggest that large rh trends will be sustained in any regions
What do recent trends in T and W tell us?
recent trends in t and w are mostly positive with the exception of southern australia, and significant for northwest usa, china, india, the caribbean, and france ranging up to an increasing w of 2.9degc 50 yr- 1and t of 2.2degc 50 yr- 1in france
How are T trends in France affected?
t t rends in france are affected by the extreme high temperatures in summer 2003
rh assumption is not an unreasonable one for most regions but that caution is necessary when interpreting results for some regions. notably, model projections into future climates do not suggest that large rh trends will be sustained in any regions. recent trends in t and w are mostly positive with the exception of southern australia, and significant for northwest usa, china, india, the caribbean, and france ranging up to an increasing w of 2.9degc 50 yr- 1and t of 2.2degc 50 yr- 1in france. the decreasing rh over france is not sufficient to prevent a significant trend in w note that the large t t rends in france are affected by the extreme high temperatures in summer 2003 and the susceptibility of trends to extreme values near either
What is an example for critical infrastructure?
pipelines
In which areas would a future increase in the intensity and frequency of heavy rainfall events, have more implications? Urban or rural areas?
especially in urban areas where roads make up a large proportion of the land surface.(36
if the timing, frequency, form and/or intensity of precipitation change in the future, then related natural processes, including debris flows, avalanches and floods, would be affected. for example, there are concerns that future changes in hydroclimatic events, particularly extreme rainfall and snowmelt, could result in more frequent disruptions of the transportation corridors in the mountains of western canada as a result of increased landslide frequency.(32)similar concerns exist about the stability of areas underlain by clay-rich sediment in parts of eastern ontario and southern quebec.(33)in addition to affecting roads and railroads, other critical infrastructure (e.g., pipelines) is also vulnerable to precipitation-triggered slope instability see box 1). future increases in the intensity and frequency of heavy rainfall events(35)would have implications for the design of roads, highways, bridges and culverts with respect to stormwater management, especially in urban areas where roads make up a large proportion of the land surface.(36)
What is shown in this article? An application of an existing glacier parameterization scheme is shown
in this paper we show: a) an application of an existing glacier parameterisation scheme to two glacier inventories
Why are two glacier inventories shown in two different mountain ranges? To compare characteristic variables like tongue balance, ice thickness
an application of an existing glacier parameterisation scheme to two glacier inventories in two different mountain ranges to compare characteristic variables like balance at the tongue, ice thickness
What is used in the reconstruction of the change in average mass balance? Measurements of change in glacier length
a reconstruction of mean mass balance change by using glacier length change measurements and d) a comparison of the different approaches within the different mountain ranges
wgms in zurich, switzerland and at the national snow and ice data center (nsidc, http://nsidc.org in boulder, colorado, usa hoelzle and trindler, 1998 ). in this paper we show: a) an application of an existing glacier parameterisation scheme to two glacier inventories in two different mountain ranges to compare characteristic variables like balance at the tongue, ice thickness, etc., b) a method of mean specific mass balance and volume reconstruction based on observed equilibrium line altitude (ela) changes, c) a reconstruction of mean mass balance change by using glacier length change measurements and d) a comparison of the different approaches within the different mountain ranges. 2. methods the parameterisation scheme developed by haeberli and hoelzle (1995) provides the possibility of analyzing
At how many km resolution does WG operate?
the wg operates at a 5 km resolution
How are the climate change factors developed?
the climate change factors are developed using the ukcp09 probabilistic projections at a 25 by 25 km resolution
Why is important to include this variation in the WG?
it is important to include this variation in the wg so that its outputs can be used for 5 km-square-based locations
the wg operates at a 5 km resolution, although the climate change factors are developed using the ukcp09 probabilistic projections at a 25 by 25 km resolution. in both cases, these are the highest resolution data available. it is of course recognised that there is variability (or noise in the spatial data sets, arising from various sources, which means that there is a limit to the resolution which is meaningful for such analyses, as it can give illusory detail or variation. however, in the case of the ukcp09 wg application, the resolution is justified, as there is an important and significant spatial signature in the long-term observational weather and climate data which is captured by the 5 km grid. the 5 km grid provides useful information on how the long-term average statistics of weather vary across the country, derived from 30 yr of observations from numerous weather stations. the variation across the country is resolved at 5 km because most weather variables (e.g. rainfall and temperature) depend on the ground surface elevation and geography in a systematic way, and at a similar space scale. it is important to include this variation in the wg so that its outputs can be used for 5 km-square-based locations. for example, the rainfall on a mountainous 5 km grid square will be considerably higher than on a neighbouring low-lying square. in the wg, as in rcm simulations, each grid square and grid box have average elevations for the areas. the dependence of rainfall and temperature on the topography is likely to be essentially the same in the future as it has well understood meteorological causes based in thermodynamics, so this downscaling provides our current best estimate of the spatial variation across the country. in any case, if such a method was not made available and followed, users may apply their own, different downscaling procedures, thus causing inconsistency and confusion.
What type of tests are preformed?
to test the importance of the iia assumption, we perform hausman tests by excluding each of the choices from the consumers' choice set and re-estimating the parameters
What does Table I report?
table i reports the gf coefficients from estimating the latent variable model (4). for both pipeable and non-pipeable groups, "electricity alone" is the base category where the normalization g1=0 is imposed
Which price effects are positive and which are negative?
the own-price effects are negative while the cross-price effects are positive
we begin by summarizing the results of the multinomial logit fuel choice model of the residential sector. to test the importance of the iia assumption, we perform hausman tests by excluding each of the choices from the consumers' choice set and re-estimating the parameters. the iia assumption is rejected for one case in each of the three customer classes.15 some fuel choices are more prevalent in specific regions of the country. customers may have regional preferences that indicate different choice parameters. we test whether the differences in preferences are restricted to the non-climate variables by testing a simplified multinomial logit model with only climate variables. the iia assumptions are supported in every case with this 14 14 simplified model yet the climate coefficients are statistically indistinguishable from those presented in the paper.16 we present the full model to investigate how consumers might respond to other non-climatic variables of interest given their initial choice set. table i reports the gf coefficients from estimating the latent variable model (4). for both pipeable and non-pipeable groups, "electricity alone" is the base category where the normalization g1=0 is imposed. the models fit the data relatively well. the pseudo-r2 is 0.41 for the pipeable households and is 0.43 for the others. we do not report the regional fixed effects for any of our results, however, they were jointly significant at the five percent level in most (12 of 19) of our models. temperature and precipitation variables suggest that households' choice of fuel is sensitive to climate. households in warmer regions more often rely on electricity alone. on the cooling side, electricity is virtually the only option. on the heating side, it has a high marginal cost but a low fixed cost, making it desirable in places with moderate winters. in relatively warmer locations, more households use electricity. table ii reports the marginal impacts from the coefficients in table i for temperature and precipitation for january, july, and overall.17 for the pipeable households, customers in places with warmer january temperatures are less likely to choose oil (relative to the other options). households in places with warmer july temperatures are less likely to choose natural gas and more likely to choose oil. these offsetting effects for oil selection are consistent with oil being the cheapest fuel, per btu, and therefore the best choice in regions with the largest temperature swings. in aggregate, households in places with warmer annual temperatures are more likely to choose electricity only. households with more precipitation are less likely to select natural gas and more likely to opt for oil or electricity only. presumably, for some households, the higher 15 15 relative humidity encourages the purchase of combined heating and cooling systems in moister locations. non-pipeable households are more temperature-sensitive than pipeable households. those households with relatively hot summers are more likely to choose electricity (over oil). again, this may simply be a result of not having a choice of piped natural gas or it may reflect other unmeasured characteristics of the two groups. another difference between the two groups is that non-pipeable households are not sensitive to variation in precipitation. table i also reports the coefficient estimates for other factors that affect fuel choice including fuel prices and demographic and structural characteristics. the price variables significantly influence the choice probabilities. the own-price effects are negative while the cross-price effects are positive, suggesting that the other options are substitutes. the coefficients on the other covariates are consistent with expectations. for example, owners of multiunit buildings are more likely to pick electricity because usage is easier to apportion to each unit. owners of larger homes are more likely to pick fuels with increasing returns, like oil and natural gas.
Which are the most important intermediate volatile acids?
acetic and propionic acids
How does propionic acid result?
mainly from the fermentation of the carbohydrates and proteins present
What percentage of acetic acid becomes methane?
acetic acid is precursor of about 72% of the methane formed
the most important intermediate volatile acids, precursors of methane formation, are the acetic and propionic acids. some of the various metabolic steps involved in the degradation of a complex substrate, such as the excess sludge from domestic sewage treatment plants, are shown in figure 24.3. the percentages shown are based on cod conversion, valid only for the formation of methane from complex substrates, such as sludges from sewage treatment plants or others of similar composition. for the complete fermentation of complex compounds into methane, each group of microorganisms has a specific function. even if the contribution to the process as a whole is small, it is nevertheless necessary for the formation of the final product. propionic acid results mainly from the fermentation of the carbohydrates and proteins present, and about 30% of the organic compounds are converted into this acid before they can be finally converted into methane. acetic acid is the most abundant intermediate acid, formed from all the organic compounds. concerning the degradation of complex substrates, such as sludge from sewage treatment plants, acetic acid is precursor of about 72% of the methane formed and, together with propionic acid, of about 85% of the total methane production. a large part of the remaining 15% results from the degradation of other acids, such as formic and butyric acids.
What is the result of urban development ?
urban development results in increasing urban warmth in the developing areas. so, if observations of temperatures in growing cities are used in the assessment of global warming trends, these trends may be overestimated
Why well-established cities may not undergo further warming relative to rural areas ?
however, the centers of well-established cities may not undergo further warming relative to rural areas because the urban infrastructure is no longer increasing its ability to retard outgoing longwave radiation and the anthropogenic heat inputs are stable
What are the temperatures in central London and Vienna?
temperatures in central london and vienna did not rise relative to rural locations nearby in recent decades. nevertheless, suburban sites continue to warm relative to nearby rural areas until local urbanization is complete, as shown for london's heathrow airport by jones and lister.13
with the above provisos, urban development results in increasing urban warmth in the developing areas. so, if observations of temperatures in growing cities are used in the assessment of global warming trends, these trends may be overestimated. however, the centers of well-established cities may not undergo further warming relative to rural areas because the urban infrastructure is no longer increasing its ability to retard outgoing longwave radiation and the anthropogenic heat inputs are stable. thus, jones et al.12have shown that temperatures in central london and vienna did not rise relative to rural locations nearby in recent decades. nevertheless, suburban sites continue to warm relative to nearby rural areas until local urbanization is complete, as shown for london's heathrow airport by jones and lister.13
Which factor modified the risk of infection for humans?
human activities have led to changes of land use and land cover and subsequent deep environmental changes of habitats. these modifications have modified the risk of infection for humans
What is the ecology of arthropod borne diseases depended on?
the ecology of arthropod-borne diseases, noticeably je, remains complex since they are highly dependent on various biotic and abiotic environmental factors and on the spatial scale of study
Which are all the subjects focused for research?
virology, molecular and spatial epidemiology, landscape and behavioral ecology, history, and socioeconomic studies
for more than a half century, human activities have led to changes of land use and land cover and subsequent deep environmental changes of habitats. these modifications have modified the risk of infection for humans. the ecology of arthropod-borne diseases, noticeably je, remains complex since they are highly dependent on various biotic and abiotic environmental factors and on the spatial scale of study. to assess and predict je emergence therefore remains difficult. multidisciplinary research focusing on virology, molecular and spatial epidemiology, landscape and behavioral ecology, history, and socioeconomic studies are essential to shed light on the biological mechanisms involved in the emergence, spread, reemergence, and genotypic changes of jev.
What is the most interesting feature of the use of space?
another interesting feature of the use of space arises when examining the seashore data in more detail. overall presence appears to decrease with increasing air temperature and solar radiation (r -0.05 and -0.20 respectively), however, presence in the sun appears to increase both with air temperature and solar radiation (r 0.19 and 0.16 respectively
How is the peak reached?
the actual use of the seashore site includes people using the area for swimming, preferring the more informal rock-formations, whilst sitting on the benches (fig. 7), from the nearby organised swimming beach. the number of people going swimming peaks as air temperature rises, particularly in sunny days, which explains the above mentioned, seemingly contrasting behaviour
another interesting feature of the use of space arises when examining the seashore data in more detail. overall presence appears to decrease with increasing air temperature and solar radiation (r -0.05 and -0.20 respectively), however, presence in the sun appears to increase both with air temperature and solar radiation (r 0.19 and 0.16 respectively). at first glance this seems illogical, but the use of the seashore has to be examined beyond its formally designated use. the actual use of the seashore site includes people using the area for swimming, preferring the more informal rock-formations, whilst sitting on the benches (fig. 7), from the nearby organised swimming beach. the number of people going swimming peaks as air temperature rises, particularly in sunny days, which explains the above mentioned, seemingly contrasting behaviour.
What is one of the reason of growth population of Dhaka?
the high rate of population growth for dhaka, much of it the result of rural-urban migration
What is the most common disaster in Dhaka?
flooding is the most common disaster in dhaka
What kind of problems are caused by excessive rainfall and flooding rivers?
there are also particular problems of drainage congestion due to excessive rainfall, and fl ooding rivers
the high rate of population growth for dhaka, much of it the result of rural-urban migration, is not a new or unusual problem. many cities in lowand middle-income nations have long faced a number of environmental and developmental problems. but now they will face additional stresses as the global climate continues to warm and as they have fewer of the resources needed to adapt or respond to the impact of climate change. stresses for the cities related to global warming include higher temperatures, water shortages, increased fl ooding and rising sea levels, particularly for coastal cities. dhaka, as a megacity, is already facing a number of environmental problems and risks related to natural disasters. most environmental problems are human induced, resulting either from a lack of compliance with national policies, rules and regulations, or from resource constraints to implementing different measures. flooding is the most common disaster in dhaka. other key environmental concerns for the city include air quality (both indoors and outdoors), surface water contamination, a reduction in groundwater, inadequate solid waste and sewage management, waterlogging, transport congestion and the expansion of slums and squatter settlements. erratic changes in temperature and rainfall and increased frequency of fl oods are becoming more evident. there are also particular problems of drainage congestion due to excessive rainfall, and fl ooding rivers. both are a major concern to city dwellers, posing adverse effects on different sectors including infrastructure (road, rail, housing), industry (large, medium and small), trade and commerce (through a disruption of communications, for instance), utility services (water supply and sanitation), sewage management and the supply of electricity and gas.
What impact is predicted regarding vector-borne diseases with rising global temperatures?
the rising global temperature is predicted to expand the distribution of vector-borne diseases both in latitude and altitude
What variables on parasite distribution are important to gather?
we need information on the distribution of parasites in relation to variables like temperature and rainfall that are predicted to be affected by climate change
What was the relation of parasite prevalence to temperature and humidity?
parasite prevalence was positively and strongly associated with annual temperature. parasite prevalence was elevated during the dry season
background: the rising global temperature is predicted to expand the distribution of vector-borne diseases both in latitude and altitude. many host communities could be affected by increased prevalence of disease, heightening the risk of extinction for many already threatened species. to understand how host communities could be affected by changing parasite distributions, we need information on the distribution of parasites in relation to variables like temperature and rainfall that are predicted to be affected by climate change. methodology/principal findings: we determined relations between prevalence of blood parasites, temperature, and seasonal rainfall in a bird community of the australian wet tropics along an elevation gradient. we used pcr screening to investigate the prevalence and lineage diversity of four genera of blood parasites plasmodium haemoproteus leucocytozoon and trypanosoma in 403 birds. the overall prevalence of the four genera of blood parasites was 32.3%, with haemoproteus the predominant genus. a total of 48 unique lineages were detected. independent of elevation, parasite prevalence was positively and strongly associated with annual temperature. parasite prevalence was elevated during the dry season. conclusions/significance: low temperatures of the higher elevations can help to reduce both the development of avian haematozoa and the abundance of parasite vectors, and hence parasite prevalence. in contrast, high temperatures of the lowland areas provide an excellent environment for the development and transmission of haematozoa. we showed that rising temperatures are likely to lead to increased prevalence of parasites in birds, and may force shifts of bird distribution to higher elevations. we found that upland tropical areas are currently a low-disease habitat and their conservation should be given high priority in management plans under climate change.
what is more difficult than temperature and precipitation ?
monitoring and understanding changes in runoff and drought is more difficult than for temperature and precipitation because soil moisture is poorly observed
What factors contribute to soilmoisture and runoff changes ?
many factors can cause soil moisture and runoff changes, including changes in climate, land use, stream management, water withdrawal, and water use efficiency by plants in high co2 environments
what is  Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) ?
there has been an overall global increase in dry areas, as represented by the palmer drought severity index (pdsi), a commonly used meteorological drought indicator, and this increase has been attributed to anthropogenic influence.58it should be noted that the calculation of pdsi involves changes in both surface
monitoring and understanding changes in runoff and drought is more difficult than for temperature and precipitation because soil moisture is poorly observed, and soil moisture and runoff changes are difficult to constrain from the residual difference between precipitation and evaporation, both of which are also relatively poorly observed. many factors can cause soil moisture and runoff changes, including changes in climate, land use, stream management, water withdrawal, and water use efficiency by plants in high co2 environments (57). nevertheless, there has been an overall global increase in dry areas, as represented by the palmer drought severity index (pdsi), a commonly used meteorological drought indicator, and this increase has been attributed to anthropogenic influence.58it should be noted that the calculation of pdsi involves changes in both surface
What are most water mamangement plans based on?
most existing water management plans, as well as water-supply and -drainage systems, are based upon historic climatic and hydrological records, and assume that the future will resemble the past
What do case studies in Ontario indicate?
case studies in ontario indicate that increases in the intensity of precipitation events have the potential to increase future drainage infrastructure costs and decrease the level of service provided by existing systems
Why are management problems likely ro arise?
management problems are likely to arise if there is an increase in climate variability and the occurrence of extreme events
most existing water management plans, as well as water-supply and -drainage systems, are based upon historic climatic and hydrological records, and assume that the future will resemble the past. although these systems should be sufficient to handle most changes in mean conditions associated with climate change over the next couple of decades, management problems are likely to arise if there is an increase in climate variability and the occurrence of extreme events. case studies in ontario indicate that increases in the intensity of precipitation events have the potential to increase future drainage infrastructure costs and decrease the level of service provided by existing systems (box 4).
Define art climate models,= in current state?
current state of the art climate models, combined with extended datasets on tree species distributions, leads to new possibilities for analyzing future distributions and answering these questions concerning impacts of climate change
Where does the climate change threaten ?
climate change threaten european forest tree species distributions
What are aimed to quantify changes in habitat suitability?
thus, we aimed to quantify changes in habitat suitability of 12 european forest tree species and assess the threat level for each species under three climate change scenarios for the period 2061 - 2080 using three general circulation models (gcms
current state of the art climate models, combined with extended datasets on tree species distributions, leads to new possibilities for analyzing future distributions and answering these questions concerning impacts of climate change: how much does climate change threaten european forest tree species distributions? which species win and which lose under three climate change scenarios (described below)? what proportion of the current range would be lost for each species and climate scenario? what are the prospects for range expansion for each species and scenario? thus, we aimed to quantify changes in habitat suitability of 12 european forest tree species and assess the threat level for each species under three climate change scenarios for the period 2061 - 2080 using three general circulation models (gcms).
What implies a positive feedback which will increase the effect of anthropogenic emissions on global temperatures?
there is good evidence that higher global temperatures will promote a rise of greenhouse gas levels, implying a positive feedback which will increase the effect of anthropogenic emissions on global temperatures
What extra warming percentage will be promoted by the feedback of global temperature on atmospheric CO2?
we suggest that the feedback of global temperature on atmospheric co2 will promote warming by an extra 15-78% on a century-scale
Why may the extra warming percentage be conservative?
this estimate may be conservative as we did not account for synergistic effects of likely temperature moderated increase in other greenhouse gases
there is good evidence that higher global temperatures will promote a rise of greenhouse gas levels, implying a positive feedback which will increase the effect of anthropogenic emissions on global temperatures. however, the magnitude of this effect predicted by the available models remains highly uncertain, due to the accumulation of uncertainties in the processes thought to be involved. here we present an alternative way of estimating the magnitude of the feedback effect based on reconstructed past changes. linking this information with the mid-range intergovernmental panel on climate change estimation of the greenhouse gas effect on temperature we suggest that the feedback of global temperature on atmospheric co2 will promote warming by an extra 15-78% on a century-scale. this estimate may be conservative as we did not account for synergistic effects of likely temperature moderated increase in other greenhouse gases. our semi-empirical approach independently supports process based simulations suggesting that feedback may cause a considerable boost in warming. citation: scheffer, m., v. brovkin, and p. cox (2006), positive feedback between global warming and atmospheric co2 concentration inferred from past climate change, geophys. res. lett. 33 l10702, doi:10.1029/ 2005gl025044.
What is a 'well-posed' problem in mathematical terms?
this is a mathematical term that signifies that a unique solution does not exist
What is the range of time resolution in RCMs?
the time resolution in rcms ranges from a few minutes to around half an hour
What can emerge that render the simulation meaningless?
subsequently, numerical instabilities can emerge that render the simulation meaningless
lateral boundary conditions of rcms do not pose a 'well-posed' problem.14,15this is a mathematical term that signifies that a unique solution does not exist, i.e., it is not possible to specify exactly the right conditions. even if other constraints were fulfilled, the driving model and the regional models have different resolutions and may also differ in their process descriptions. furthermore, gcm data for boundary conditions is typically available at 6 h or so intervals. the time resolution in rcms ranges from a few minutes to around half an hour. even though one interpolates in time between two successive boundary condition data sets to match the time resolution in the regional model, this gives rise to yet another inexactness in providing boundary conditions. subsequently, numerical instabilities can emerge that render the simulation meaningless. the illposedness is, however, not a prohibitive problem. it can be managed by overspecifying the boundaries and damping numerical noise. the solutions on how to manage boundary conditions date back to ref 16. the idea is to build in an adjustment zone (also called a relaxation or a sponge zone) just inside the lateral boundaries. these zones are typically 4-10 grid points wide. boundary conditions and the solution computed in the rcm are merged in a way as to dampen spurious numerical features. herein there is a host of technical and theoretical issues, such as the functional form of the blending of the boundary conditions and the regional model solution, the width of the
What happens when subregional differences are modeled in this way?
when subregional differences are modeled in this way, several policy-relevant aspects of the model can change dramatically even when other assumptions and parameters from rice are held constant
What are the rice RICE regional damage functions used for?
as we show below, even when rice regional damage functions are used to establish the damage level of each region, the distribution of damage within regions can cause some members of future generations to be less affluent than their current counterparts
What happens if damages are distributed inversely proportionally to income?
if damages are distributed inversely proportionally to income, then the utilitarian optimal mitigation effort under the discounting assumptions of nordhaus (2) in our disaggregated model is equivalent to the optimal mitigation in the more aggregated rice model under the low discounting assumptions of the stern review (1), as we show below
when subregional differences are modeled in this way, several policy-relevant aspects of the model can change dramatically even when other assumptions and parameters from rice are held constant. as we show below, even when rice regional damage functions are used to establish the damage level of each region, the distribution of damage within regions can cause some members of future generations to be less affluent than their current counterparts.{if the distribution of damage is less skewed to high incomes than the distribution of consumption, then weak or no climate policy will result in sufficiently large damages on the lower economic strata to eventually stop their welfare levels from improving, and instead cause them to decline. this paints a different picture from the standard narrative in leading cost - benefit iams, where regional average consumptions continue to grow even under business-as-usual (bau). the implications for policy recommendations are striking, both by the standard utilitarian metric and by metrics of sustainability (18) and justice (19) emphasized by alternative normative frameworks. if the future poor bear more than their proportional share of the damage, significantly more mitigation effort is optimal than in existing models. for example, if damages are distributed inversely proportionally to income, then the utilitarian optimal mitigation effort under the discounting assumptions of nordhaus (2) in our disaggregated model is equivalent to the optimal mitigation in the more aggregated rice model under the low discounting assumptions of the stern review (1), as we show below. therefore, properly accounting for the distribution of consumption and damage within regions may be as important for climate policy as the debate over discounting. making rice nice to model distributional differences within regions of both consumption and damages, the key modification of rice is to split each of its 12 regions into population quintiles. we use the most recent available world bank data (20) on national income significance
We learn in this paragraph that Polyfit estimated a widespread advance in spring phenology, but what was predicted by HANTS?
polyfit estimated a widespread advance in spring phenology, but hants predicted a widespread delay
When did the SD of spring advance in Inner Mongolia and northwest of Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau occur?
the sd of spring advance in most of the pixels in inner mongolia and northwest of qinghai-tibetan plateau occurred between 2 and 5 days per decade and between 3 and 5 days per decade, respectively
What is the range of the SD of spring advance in mountains of Northeast China and southeast region in Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau?
in mountains of northeast china and southeast region in qinghai-tibetan plateau, the sd of spring advance mostly ranged between 1 and 3 days per decade and between 0 and 3 days per decade, respectively
although a spatial consistency in the sign of trend value was broadly observed, there was also appreciable uncertainty between methods in trend estimation, as measured by standard deviation of trend values from the five methods (figure 2g). most notably, in both inner mongolia and qinghai-tibetan plateau, polyfit estimated a widespread advance in spring phenology, but hants predicted a widespread delay. thus, the sd of spring advance in most of the pixels in inner mongolia and northwest of qinghai-tibetan plateau occurred between 2 and 5 days per decade and between 3 and 5 days per decade, respectively. in contrast, the pixels in relatively wet regions always had a smaller sd. for example, in mountains of northeast china and southeast region in qinghai-tibetan plateau, the sd of spring advance mostly ranged between 1 and 3 days per decade and between 0 and 3 days per decade, respectively.
Name the different circumstances talked about in the text
the circumstances here are collective choices today to reduce global emissions of ghgs, providing potentially very large benefits across many generations
How should d be largely understood?
seen in this light, it is very clear that d should largely be understood in terms of ethical discrimination by birth date
At what d percentage would someone born in 1972  have twice the ethical weight of someone born in 2007?
if d 2%, then someone born in 1972 would have twice the ethical weight of someone born in 2007
weitzman (2007) appear to support. different values of d will be appropriate in different circumstances. the circumstances here are collective choices today to reduce global emissions of ghgs, providing potentially very large benefits across many generations. seen in this light, it is very clear that d should largely be understood in terms of ethical discrimination by birth date. it is not a question of an individual's impatience with respect to his/her own consumption in his/her own lifetime, nor should it include the larger set of risks to the survival of individual government projects, with a marginal effect relative to the overall growth path.16 when interpreted as discrimination by birth date, extreme values of d are difficult to justify. if d 2%, then someone born in 1972 would have twice the ethical weight of someone born in 2007. so if these two individuals were expected to have the same income, an extra unit of consumption to the one born in 2007 would be given only half the weight of an extra unit of consumption to the one born in 1972. would many people regard this as ethically acceptable in terms of responsible social action? we think not. further, a high d can lead to a version of time inconsistency - each generation postpones action, because with a high d each generation will also seek to minimise short-term mitigation costs, passing the burden on to the next generation.
Which approaches seek to secure emission reductions while achieving other desired benefits?
co-benefit approaches seek to secure emission reductions while achieving other desired benefits
Under the Kyoto Protocol on what most emphasis has been given?
most emphasis has been on emissions reductions and economically efficient ways of securing them
What should be done to achieve a comprehensive and equitable risk-management approach?
to achieve a comprehensive and equitable risk-management approach, one that works on all major components of the climate-change problem, major new efforts are in order
under the kyoto protocol, despite some significant inroads, progress is well short of the scale and effectiveness of what is needed. most emphasis has been on emissions reductions and economically efficient ways of securing them. thus primary attention has been given to noregrets interventions, co-benefit policies, and flexibility mechanisms. no-regrets strategies involve actions with such secure benefits that they involve no regret in the future. emission-reduction opportunities exist that arise from market failures and other barriers that impede economically efficient solutions. no-regret strategies here will permit emission reductions at negative costs. co-benefit approaches seek to secure emission reductions while achieving other desired benefits. these involve curbing air pollution, promoting energy efficiency, improving land-use practices, and designing better transportation systems. in some cases, the co-benefits of reducing greenhouse gas emissions may be comparable to costs, and thus become part of no-regret measures (ipcc 2001). finally, flexibility mechanisms such as the clean development mechanism and joint implementation, are designed to create a broad panoply of emission-reduction options so that interventions can proceed flexibly with many options and choice, high efficiency, and low social disruption. taken together, these efforts aimed at emissions reductions are essential for global efforts for climate stabilization and must be expanded as a matter of urgency. but as a risk-management strategy for combating global warming, emissions reductions are insufficient in themselves. the stressors and environmental perturbations are only one part of the risk problem. differential vulnerability and strategies aimed at creating greater resilience are the other part. such efforts at increased adaptation and resilience have received much less attention and shown fewer signs of progress. to achieve a comprehensive and equitable risk-management approach, one that works on all major components of the climate-change problem, major new efforts are in order. what is the "stuff" of such a resilience strategy to complement current efforts at emissions reductions? a full treatment is beyond the scope of this paper but some primary elements include:
What is the major challenge for climate change innovation?
technology development or technology deployment one of the major challenges for climate change innovation is that a real reduction of ghg emissions requires a lower dependence on fossil fuels
What plays a major role in stabilizing CO2 emissions on a global level?
energy-effi ciency improvements could play an important role in stabilizing carbon dioxide (co2) emissions on a global level, it will not be enough to completely ward off that dangerous co2 concentration levels might be reached
What are the limitations that non-fossil-fuel-based alternatives have?
although non-fossil-fuel-based alternatives might lead to a lower climatic impact, it is typically the case that they have other limitations, liabilities and uncertainties (holdren, 2006; kemp et al. 1998) that particularly come to the surface when their deployment is scaled up (grubb, 2004
picking winners: technology development or technology deployment one of the major challenges for climate change innovation is that a real reduction of ghg emissions requires a lower dependence on fossil fuels. although energy-effi ciency improvements could play an important role in stabilizing carbon dioxide (co2) emissions on a global level, it will not be enough to completely ward off that dangerous co2 concentration levels might be reached. to move into safer waters a much greater deployment of low-carbon or carbon-free alternatives is deemed necessary (hoffert et al. 1998). however, for high-salience sectors such as power generation and transportation it is not at all clear what should replace the prevailing fossil-fuel-based technologies. there is no technological 'silver bullet' solution at the moment. although non-fossil-fuel-based alternatives might lead to a lower climatic impact, it is typically the case that they have other limitations, liabilities and uncertainties (holdren, 2006; kemp et al. 1998) that particularly come to the surface when their deployment is scaled up (grubb, 2004). climate change experts have different views on the most desirable technological trajectories to reach a solution for climate change (grubb, 2004; hoffert, 2006). on the one hand, it has been argued that a major investment in (government-led) r&d programmes and international cooperation are necessary because all possible alternatives to the current fossil-fuel-based energy infrastructure require large investments in fundamental and applied research (hoffert et al. 1998, 2002). the main idea is that whatever technological trajectory is chosen for power generation (be it continued use of coal or natural gas combined with carbon capture and storage, nuclear, or renewables), this will in all cases call for a radical departure from the existing energy infrastructure and require further research, if these options are to help in signifi cantly reducing carbon emissions. on the other hand, it is stated that there has been too much focus on developing new fundamental scientifi c, technical and industrial expertise in search of radical solutions, while a signifi cant reduction could also be achieved by scaling up technologies based on existing know-how (pacala and socolow, 2004). this approach, which has
What changes in the subtropical lower stratosphere are much smaller in JJA than in DJF?
it is seen that the zonal-wind changes in the subtropical lower stratosphere are much smaller in jja than in djf, as is the amount of wave drag that is available to perturb
What factor contributed to the strengthening of the BDC in these simulations?
given that the rossby wave contribution to the strengthening of the bdc in these simulations arises primarily from transient waves, with a significant contribution from synoptic-scale waves, a natural question to ask is whether the mechanism of critical-layer control can also explain the relative weakness of the bdc changes found in june-august (jja; table 1
How does Fig. 6 differ from Fig. 4?
this question is explored in fig. 6, which is identical to fig. 4, except that it is for jja rather than djf
given that the rossby wave contribution to the strengthening of the bdc in these simulations arises primarily from transient waves, with a significant contribution from synoptic-scale waves, a natural question to ask is whether the mechanism of critical-layer control can also explain the relative weakness of the bdc changes found in june-august (jja; table 1). this question is explored in fig. 6, which is identical to fig. 4, except that it is for jja rather than djf. it is seen that the zonal-wind changes in the subtropical lower stratosphere are much smaller in jja than in djf, as is the amount of wave drag that is available to perturb. nevertheless, critical-layer
what are the exact solution of these equations?
an exact solution of these equations is available if we artificially force the process (vl( t ), vm( t )) to be real by taking wk( t to be a real instead of complex wiener process
what are these results report?
these results were reported in here, we focus on the complex case. we have the following: proposition 7.4 the equations in (7.21) are stochastically stable around 0 0 if and only if bl and bm have opposite signs
an exact solution of these equations is available if we artificially force the process (vl( t ), vm( t )) to be real by taking wk( t to be a real instead of complex wiener process. these results were reported in here, we focus on the complex case. we have the following: proposition 7.4 the equations in (7.21) are stochastically stable around 0 0 if and only if bl and bm have opposite signs. more precisely, if vl( t ), vm( t )) denotes the solution of the equations in (7.21) for the initial condition (vl, vm) we have (7.22) lim vl,vm- 0prob  sup 0 <= t [?]
What have indigenous peoples faced at global climate change forums?
at global climate change forums, indigenous peoples have long maintained two positions: first, that their homelands are being transformed irreversibly by climate change, and second, that they have unique contributions to make towards climate decision-making due to their extensive experiential knowledge
What have indigenous peoples stated about their cultures and traditions?
indigenous peoples furthermore state that their cultures and traditions are inherently resilient, and that heightened vulnerability is a result of external agency, a combination of political forces and social structures that erode their resource base and their traditional institutions (see chapter 5
What did Berkes say of inherent dynamism of traditional knowledge systems?
the inherent dynamism of traditional knowledge systems lies at the heart of this ability to adapt (berkes, 2012
before the 15th conference of parties to the un framework convention on climate change (unfccc), the international indigenous peoples forum on climate change (iipfcc) stated: for generations, we have managed ecosystems nurturing their integrity and complexity in sustainable and culturally diverse ways... traditional knowledge, innovations and adaptation practices embody local adaptive management to the changing environment, and complement scientific research, observations and monitoring. (iipfcc, 2009) at global climate change forums, indigenous peoples have long maintained two positions: first, that their homelands are being transformed irreversibly by climate change, and second, that they have unique contributions to make towards climate decision-making due to their extensive experiential knowledge. indigenous peoples furthermore state that their cultures and traditions are inherently resilient, and that heightened vulnerability is a result of external agency, a combination of political forces and social structures that erode their resource base and their traditional institutions (see chapter 5). resilience is rooted in the traditional knowledge of indigenous peoples. the capacity of the wemindji cree of subarctic canada to adapt to environmental change is based first and foremost on their in-depth knowledge of the land. 'they use the land and resources, and develop the sensitivity to 'read' critical signs from the environment that something unusual is happening. if they were not connecting with the land, they would not be able to respond effectively to what they were observing' (berkes, 2009: 153). the inherent dynamism of traditional knowledge systems lies at the heart of this ability to adapt (berkes, 2012). they are constantly renewed through learning-by-doing, experimenting and knowledge building (berkes, 2012), processes that allow knowledge holders to adjust and modify their actions in response to environmental change. the following sub-sections present three examples of resilience rooted in traditional knowledge and practice: resilience from nurturing plant and animal diversity; resilience through diversified land use and mobility; and resilience rooted in social networks and customary systems of governance. however, it is important to bear in mind when considering these examples, that socioecological systems have multiple threshold effects influenced by multiple, interacting variables. the crossing of one threshold can produce a cascade effect that leads to the breaching of other thresholds, and this in turn may lead to resilient, but less desirable, alternative states (kinzig et al., 2006). 43
What did the meta-analysis of the health campaign literature find?
a recent meta-analysis of the health campaign literature found that, on average, persuasive media campaigns evoke personal behavior change among 9% of their target audience
What were the campaigns like that produced largest effect sizes?
somewhat larger effect sizes were found among campaigns that (1) promoted behaviors enforceable by law (e.g., seatbelt use); (2) achieved a higher than average exposure to the campaign (i.e., greater message reach and frequency) among members of the target audience; and (3) presented new information (versus information that had already been communicated previously in other ways
Has there been a similar analysis conducted to assess the impact of campaigns seeking to generate public support for public policy?
regrettably, to the best of our knowledge, no similar analysis has been conducted to assess the impact of campaigns seeking to generate public support for policy solutions
a recent meta-analysis of the health campaign literature found that, on average, persuasive media campaigns evoke personal behavior change among 9% of their target audience.98somewhat larger effect sizes were found among campaigns that (1) promoted behaviors enforceable by law (e.g., seatbelt use); (2) achieved a higher than average exposure to the campaign (i.e., greater message reach and frequency) among members of the target audience; and (3) presented new information (versus information that had already been communicated previously in other ways). regrettably, to the best of our knowledge, no similar analysis has been conducted to assess the impact of campaigns seeking to generate public support for policy solutions. for a variety of reasons--including the conservative nature of meta-analysis, the modest levels of funding
What is indicated above?
as indicated above, species of low body mass are expected to be sensitive to shifts in forage quality
What has happened to those Dutch polders?
in those dutch polders used for dairy cattle farming, forage quality on grasslands improved greatly after 1945
What does figure 5 show?
figure 5 shows schematically this release from nutritional bottle necks, first of food quantity (green biomass) for the larger birds, later food quality (crude protein content) for smaller birds
as indicated above, species of low body mass are expected to be sensitive to shifts in forage quality. in those dutch polders used for dairy cattle farming, forage quality on grasslands improved greatly after 1945. since 1985, the crude protein content of grass leaves in winter has not fallen below 25% of the dry weight (van eerden et al ., 1996). first the mute swan c. olor ), followed by the bewick's swan and then the greylag goose a. anser shifted to improved grassland as their main winter food source during the 1950s and 1960s. smaller geese, such as white-fronted a. albifrons and barnacle goose followed in the 1970s, and wigeon fed in grasslands after 1985. figure 5 shows schematically this release from nutritional bottle necks, first of food quantity (green biomass) for the larger birds, later food quality (crude protein content) for smaller birds.
What is the disease closely coupled with climate anomalies?
rift valley fever (rvf
Which is the virus that causes Rift Valley fever?
phlebovirus
What is the carrier of Phlebovirus.?
eggs of aedes mosquitoes
in the last twenty years there has been increased scientific interest in the connection between global climatic anomalies and disease outbreaks (nicholls, 1991). rift valley fever (rvf), caused by a virus in the genus phlebovirus is one such example of a disease whose outbreaks have been shown to be closely coupled with climate anomalies (davies et al., 1985). in kenya, rvf primarily affects inhabitants of the dry lands of the rift valley system and the outlying semi-arid and arid grazing lands (figure 1). rvf was first recognized in kenya (daubney et al., 1931) in the 1930s as an epizootic on a farm in naivasha, killing several hundred sheep. there have been subsequent known outbreaks in most countries of subsaharan africa including sudan, egypt, mauritania, and parts of southern africa. the virus that causes rvf is carried in the eggs of aedes mosquitoes. these mosquitoes breed in isolated depressions called dambos found in these vast grassland areas (figure 2). when the dambos flood during periods of extensive and widespread rainfall (linthicum et al., 1983, 1984) the eggs of the aedes mosquitoes hatch and the subsequent adults transmit the virus to domestic animals including sheep, goats, cattle, camels, and buffalo. these depressions also serve as good habitats for culex mosquito species. when aedes mosquitoes infect domestic animals with rvf, virus amplification occurs in these vertebrate hosts, leading to propagation into various culex species that are capable of transmitting the virus to a wider area beyond the area of the original outbreaks (mcintosh, 1972).
What does FALLICE simulation create for the SP version?
the fallice simulation interestingly produces biases in the temperature field which are closer to the sp version
What is the effect of zonal wind dependencies?
the effect on the zonal wind biases goes in the direction of a reduction, but is not enough to reconcile the results with the sp version
What are SP and NP?
even with the change from sp to np, the changes are weak. the impact of parameter tuning is even smaller (not shown). the global mean rainfall is a little bit stronger in the np version than in sp, and too strong when compared to gpcp5
the lower panels of fig. 13 illustrate how tuning may affect these biases. the fallice simulation interestingly produces biases in the temperature field which are closer to the sp version. the effect on the zonal wind biases goes in the direction of a reduction, but is not enough to reconcile the results with the sp version. note however that an even smaller value of ciw 0.25 was used in the sp version. whether the mid-latitude biases in zonal wind, temperature and humidity could be reduced in the np version by refining the horizontal grid or by a different tuning has to be investigated further. 3.6 rainfall the zonally and annually averaged rainfall is shown in fig. 14 for the various model versions. even with the change from sp to np, the changes are weak. the impact of parameter tuning is even smaller (not shown). the global mean rainfall is a little bit stronger in the np version than in sp, and too strong when compared to gpcp5
What influences a scientistsâ€™ world view?
whereas scientists' worldviews are strongly influenced by the boundaries of their own research and disciplines, decision makers' worldviews are conditioned by ''decision space
What three factors will hold a scientist back from using a tool or information?
these range from, first, the nature of policy ''attentiveness'' in administrative organizations (in which awareness of alternatives is often driven by elected officials' demands instead of new information) (kingdon 1995) to, second, organizational goals and objectives that restrict information flow and feedback. a third reason revolves around the nature of indirect commands within organizations that evolve through trial and error
What does the term â€œwater managerâ€ cover?
water serves a number of functions, including agriculture, ecosystems, municipal water supply, coastal zones, hydropower production, and floods
some people occupy roles that permit them to look at the big picture while others must restrict themselves to detailed knowledge of what is in front of them. climate scientists' room to investigate problems is often bounded by disciplines and the professional norms and expectations of the academic organizations in which they are housed. these include tenure, retention and promotion, and the fact that universities' reward systems rarely recognize interdisciplinary work, outreach efforts, use-inspired research, and publications outside of academic journals (jacobs 2003). by contrast, water managers are confined to their own agencies' missions and are constrained by available resources and the need to serve designated constituencies. whereas scientists' worldviews are strongly influenced by the boundaries of their own research and disciplines, decision makers' worldviews are conditioned by ''decision space'' (jacobs et al. 2005; johnston et al. 2007; patt and gwata 2002; orlove and tosteson 1999)--the range of realistic options available to them to resolve particular problems. new, scientifically derived tools or sources of information may have obvious applications when viewed from a theoretical perspective. however, a decision maker may be constrained from using a tool or information by at least three factors. these range from, first, the nature of policy ''attentiveness'' in administrative organizations (in which awareness of alternatives is often driven by elected officials' demands instead of new information) (kingdon 1995) to, second, organizational goals and objectives that restrict information flow and feedback. a third reason revolves around the nature of indirect commands within organizations that evolve through trial and error. over time, these commands take the form of rules and protocols that guide and prescribe appropriate and inappropriate ways of using information in bureaucracies (stone 1997; torgerson 2005). in water resources, many actors make climate-sensitive decisions, each with their own distinct and often narrow decision space. water serves a number of functions, including agriculture, ecosystems, municipal water supply, coastal zones, hydropower production, and floods. consequently, the category ''water manager'' covers a wide variety of actors, each with specific problems, including municipal water officials, who need to impose
How does drinking and hanging out together probably make it easier to get things done?
that probably makes it a lot easier to, you know, get things done when you're really ''palsy'' with the chairman
What type of leader was the person who the author connected with as a mentor?
i think the person who i connected with as a mentor was somebody who was a very strong institutional leader who has achieved a lot of things
What did the mentor help the author do?
helped me to see and grasp things even when i thought that they were beyond what i was able to do
i've heard about members of my department who get together and socialize. they drink together, and they hang out when i heard that that kind of thing was going on a regular basis, i thought, gee, you know, that probably makes it a lot easier to, you know, get things done when you're really ''palsy'' with the chairman. urm female it's not just that i've had good mentorship i think the person who i connected with as a mentor was somebody who was a very strong institutional leader who has achieved a lot of things, both inside and outside of the institution, and helped me to see and grasp things even when i thought that they were beyond what i was able to do. urm male
Who is faced many challenges, including climate change?
many challenges, including climate change, face the nation's water managers
Who has provided estimates of how climate may change?
the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) has provided estimates of how climate may change
What is the purpose of this interagency report prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation), and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)?
the purpose of this interagency report prepared by the u.s. geological survey (usgs), u.s. army corps of engineers (usace), bureau of reclamation (reclamation), and national oceanic and atmospheric administration (noaa) is to explore strategies to improve water management by tracking, anticipating, and responding to climate change
many challenges, including climate change, face the nation's water managers. the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) has provided estimates of how climate may change, but more understanding of the processes driving the changes, the sequences of the changes, and the manifestation of these global changes at different scales could be beneficial. since the changes will likely affect fundamental drivers of the hydrological cycle, climate change may have a large impact on water resources and water resources managers. the purpose of this interagency report prepared by the u.s. geological survey (usgs), u.s. army corps of engineers (usace), bureau of reclamation (reclamation), and national oceanic and atmospheric administration (noaa) is to explore strategies to improve water management by tracking, anticipating, and responding to climate change. the key points below briefly summarize the chapters in this report and represent underlying assumptions needed to address the many impacts of climate change.
On what country aggregation?
the country aggregation is based on the cru ts 2.0 gridded data set
Explain gridded data ?
the gridded data were aggregated into countries using political boundaries (mitchell et al ., 2001). a complete analysis of climate trends in mean values and in variability [using the variation coefficient (vc)] was done
What is the VC ratio?
the vc, the ratio between 100 sd and the mean (sokal rohlf, 1969), is a standardized measure of data variability. monthly temperature and precipitation vc series were calculated yearly, as well as using intervals of 38 years lagged 5 years in order to make these series comparable to the tree-growth variability results
cy 1.1 data set (mitchell et al ., 2003). the country aggregation is based on the cru ts 2.0 gridded data set. the gridded data were aggregated into countries using political boundaries (mitchell et al ., 2001). a complete analysis of climate trends in mean values and in variability [using the variation coefficient (vc)] was done. the vc, the ratio between 100 sd and the mean (sokal rohlf, 1969), is a standardized measure of data variability. monthly temperature and precipitation vc series were calculated yearly, as well as using intervals of 38 years lagged 5 years in order to make these series comparable to the tree-growth variability results.
Why had the author felt that she had worked harder than the other people?
i always felt like i had i better work harder than the other people because i just have to do that in order to be successful
What is said about female in job market?
urm female and if anything, if there was, for example, an ethnic or racially underrepresented [minority], he is more likely to be promoted
What injustice is told by the author?
there was somebody who got promoted around the time that i got promoted but had accomplished substantially less than i had, and, but got promoted ahead of me
whereas, promotion, and you work with the person or you know him for a longer time. you know what they've achieved and you can change your mind about potential prejudice that you've had about [them]. majority male there was somebody who got promoted around the time that i got promoted but had accomplished substantially less than i had, and, but got promoted ahead of me. i always felt like i had i better work harder than the other people because i just have to do that in order to be successful. urm female and if anything, if there was, for example, an ethnic or racially underrepresented [minority], he is more likely to be promoted. majority male
What does the strategy used to determine and integrate do?
the strategy used to determine and integrate estimates of exposure, sensitivity and capacity to adapt to climate change proved effective to differentiate between high, medium and low vulnerability families and to identify the livelihood characteristics that contribute to those states
What is Cutters analysis?
it is place that forms the fundamental unit of analysis'' for vulnerability
What is expected by 2050?
thus it is not unexpected that the nature of vulnerability is very site or even family specific the farms located in areas with high vulnerability level will not have suitable conditions for quality coffee production by 2050. these conditions include changing climate factors (e.g. temperature, precipitation) by 2050, high variability of coffee production and high levels of migration in some communities, low adaptive capacity in post harvest infrastructure and in guatemala and mexico low access to credit
the strategy used to determine and integrate estimates of exposure, sensitivity and capacity to adapt to climate change proved effective to differentiate between high, medium and low vulnerability families and to identify the livelihood characteristics that contribute to those states. nevertheless, factors that contribute to vulnerability are distinct between departments, municipalities and families. this is consistent with cutters analysis that ''it is place that forms the fundamental unit of analysis'' for vulnerability thus it is not unexpected that the nature of vulnerability is very site or even family specific the farms located in areas with high vulnerability level will not have suitable conditions for quality coffee production by 2050. these conditions include changing climate factors (e.g. temperature, precipitation) by 2050, high variability of coffee production and high levels of migration in some communities, low adaptive capacity in post harvest infrastructure and in guatemala and mexico low access to credit. some of these are similar to those identified by eakin as the important drivers of change, which include: torrential rainfall, credit, declining soil fertility, new market opportunities, and declining international coffee price. tucker found that coffee farmers in central america primarily adapted to global change through changes in crops and crop
What are one of the strengths of this book?
one of the great strengths of this book is csanady's description of physical processes, and another is the description of interactions and balances between various processes
What are one of the difficulties with this book?
one of the few difficulties with this book has to do with the numerical examples
What does the writing style provoke the reader to do?
furthermore, the writing style provokes the reader to think about these points
by g.t. csanady cambridge university press 248 pp. isbn 0521792592 review by mark bourassa center for ocean atmospheric studies florida state university * tallahassee, florida usa gabe csanady's 'air-sea interaction: laws and mechanisms' provides a new and long needed perspective on air-sea interaction. this book discusses similarities and differences in the ocean and atmospheric boundarylayers, as well as the surface waves that are related to some of this interaction. rather than focusing on one side of the interface or the other, it describes how both boundary layers act and interact on a wide range of spatial/temporal scales. the qualitative descriptions of boundary-layer processes, their evolution and forcing mechanisms are excellent. furthermore, the writing style provokes the reader to think about these points. in some cases, atmospheric scientists are likely to find this provocation annoying: such as calling the top of the atmospheric mixed layer the 'atmospheric thermocline.' however, most of the additional thought comes easily due to the lucid and easily visualized descriptions. csanady provides an excellent synthesis of approaches and results. he explains or references the derivations far more thoroughly than is typical. this book a good reference despite being smaller and far more general than most other texts on air-sea interaction. the topics include descriptions of how air-sea interaction processes are linked to the evolution of related layers: the neighboring mixed layers as well as the ocean's thermocline and the inversion at the top of the atmospheric boundary. these topics are a great help in linking air-sea interaction processes to many other topics, and thereby making the topic of more interest to students whose focus is in other areas of atmospheric science and oceanography. one of the great strengths of this book is csanady's description of physical processes, and another is the description of interactions and balances between various processes. plentiful illustrations enhance these descriptions. the physical mechanisms are also shown in terms of equations, which are usually well explained. one of the few difficulties with this book has to do with the numerical examples. several colleagues who glanced at sections of the book found the numerical results to be questionable. this problem seems to stem from insufficient description of the spatial and temporal scale to which the examples apply. this flaw is relatively minor compared to the strengths of the book.
What are global changes causing? They are shaping the ecology and biogeography of marine species and their fisheries
global changes are shaping the ecology and biogeography of marine species and their fisheries
How can macroecology theory be used? Can it be used to develop models to predict the effects of global changes on marine species?
macroecology theory, which deals with large scale relationships between ecology and biogeography, can be used to develop models to predict the effects of global changes on marine species that in turn affect their fisheries
On the basis of which a theoretical model has been developed that relates the maximum potential of capture of a species with its trophic level? based on theories that link trophic energy and the allometric scale of metabolism
first, based on theories linking trophic energetics and allometric scaling of metabolism, we developed a theoretical model that relates maximum catch potential from a species to its trophic level
global changes are shaping the ecology and biogeography of marine species and their fisheries. macroecology theory, which deals with large scale relationships between ecology and biogeography, can be used to develop models to predict the effects of global changes on marine species that in turn affect their fisheries. first, based on theories linking trophic energetics and allometric scaling of metabolism, we developed a theoretical model that relates maximum catch potential from a species to its trophic level, geographic range, and mean primary production within the species' exploited range. then, using this theoretical model and data from 1000 species of exploited marine fishes and invertebrates, we analyzed the empirical relationship between species' approximated maximum catch potential, their ecology, and biogeography variables. additional variables are included in the empirical model to correct for biases resulting from the uncertainty inherent in the original catch data. the empirical model has high explanatory power and agrees with theoretical expectations. in the future, this empirical model can be combined with a bioclimate envelope model to predict the socio-economic impacts of climate change on global marine fisheries. such potential application is illustrated here with an example pertaining to the small yellow croaker larimichthys polyactis (sciaenidae) from the east china sea. key words: macroecology * climate change * fisheries * catch
In what condition, no increase in mitigation or reactive adaptation is necessary now?
if international transfers from resourcerich to resource-starved countries are expected to be feasible in the future--both financially (no constraint on resources at the global level) and politically, no increase in mitigation or reactive adaptation is necessary now
What will correct the future budget constraints?
future transfers will correct the future budget constraints
What should be financed in this case?
in this case, more proactive adaptation and more mitigation should be financed
without early budget constraint, but with risks of late budget constraint because of revenue cyclicality, random shocks (e.g., monetary crisis) or climate-change induced shocks. at the global level, the model suggests one of two things: if international transfers from resourcerich to resource-starved countries are expected to be feasible in the future--both financially (no constraint on resources at the global level) and politically, no increase in mitigation or reactive adaptation is necessary now: future transfers will correct the future budget constraints when and where they occur. however, if international transfers from resource-rich to resource-starved countries are expected to be difficult in the future, e.g. because climate impacts might trigger financial constraints throughout the world, or because political barriers to transfers might be as acute as they are now. in this case, more proactive adaptation and more mitigation should be financed (to 28 28
What aims can be achieved through these steps?
development practitioners can deploy them to develop an m&e system for an adaptation intervention or to identify ways to monitor and evaluate adaptation-related dimensions of a broader development intervention
What is the first step for practitioners to take?
step 1 - describe the adaptation context in designing an adaptation program or project and its m&e system, practitioners must explore current understanding of the climate and non-climate factors likely to aid or inhibit the measures taken. such information enables project managers to set a baseline against which results are accounted for during and after implementation
What should happen if climate risk and vulnerability assessments have not yet taken place?
in other cases, new studies, surveys, or research may be a critical first step. climate change risk and vulnerability assessments help implementers and project partners: * become aware of and better understand climate (and non-climate) factors that an adaptation intervention both is influenced by and aims to influence
these steps can be used for various ends. development practitioners can deploy them to develop an m&e system for an adaptation intervention or to identify ways to monitor and evaluate adaptation-related dimensions of a broader development intervention. they can also provide a platform for reflecting on the usefulness of existing m&e systems for a particular adaptation program or strategy. the steps are generally ordered sequentially, but depending on the stage of planning for a particular intervention, it may be useful to skip a step, focus on a single step, or move through them out of order. 3.1 step 1 - describe the adaptation context in designing an adaptation program or project and its m&e system, practitioners must explore current understanding of the climate and non-climate factors likely to aid or inhibit the measures taken. such information enables project managers to set a baseline against which results are accounted for during and after implementation.32 it can also greatly strengthen objectives and strategy. often, climate risk or vulnerability assessments may already have been completed prior to the design and approval of an intervention. in other cases, new studies, surveys, or research may be a critical first step. climate change risk and vulnerability assessments help implementers and project partners: * become aware of and better understand climate (and non-climate) factors that an adaptation intervention both is influenced by and aims to influence, whether directly or indirectly (such as clarifying who or what is exposed to what risks, what non-climate factors are driving vulnerability, and what are socially acceptable levels of risk). * describe needs and priorities of stakeholders (such as livelihoods and public health).33
Is the UK Government right to see the major linchpins of an energy security strategy as the building of a new coal and nuclear plants?
the uk government is wrong to see the major linchpins of an energy security strategy as the building of new coal and nuclear plants
What is a cascading gird model?
a cascading grid model, in which one or more of these micro-grid links could be sacrificed to ensure the integrity of the whole
How do energy experts get to be chairman of big companies?
energy experts do not get elevated to the lords because they run a local energy cooperative, but they do get there by being chairman of a very big company
the uk government is wrong to see the major linchpins of an energy security strategy as the building of new coal and nuclear plants. these two so-called solutions would reinforce the current business-as-usual model that takes us down the road towards unaffordable energy and civil insecurity, big grids that fail during extreme events and expenditure of our vital economic resources on tying the british people into being hostages who will have to pay not only for the energy they need but also for shareholder profit. the reality is that a billion pounds spent on new coal generation to build x megawatts for coal-powered stations belonging to big energy, would equally pay for the same x megawatts of energy, negative demand, in the form of energy efficiency and demand reduction measures and embedded renewable energy systems belonging to the community and building owners. the difference is that in the first model the homeowner has to pay what big energy demands in perpetuity for every unit of delivered energy, whereas in the second mode the homeowners get their energy free forever. the difference is that the billion pounds is currently in the hands of big energy and their friends ' big government. energy experts do not get elevated to the lords because they run a local energy cooperative, but they do get there by being chairman of a very big company. many of the staff of the energy regulators come originally from big energy. many politicians believe that the views of big energy are vital to the economic health of the country. however, the time has come for a fundamental rethink on the question of how we design for energy security. one idea is to go back to the old municipal grid model, linked by a supportive grid. the individual linked micro-grids would become part of the chainmail armour built to protect the country against large-scale grid failure. a cascading grid model, in which one or more of these micro-grid links could be sacrificed to ensure the integrity of the whole, may provide a far more resilient solution than the type of monolithic grid solution that failed so catastrophically on the eastern seaboard of america in august 2003. the cascading grid model is based on a number of tenets:
Where have corals ony been weakly impacted?
corals in south africa have been only weakly impacted and are expected to persist in this likely refuge
Why did South African reef corals largely escape the mass mortalities observed across the tropics in the late 1990s?
these reefs are protected by local small-scale upwelling events in summer that, if they occur at the right time, keep temperatures below bleaching levels
How much is the sea-level expected to rise up to?
sea-level rise by up to 0.88 m is expected
the findings in this paper show that arabian gulf (abu dhabi, dubai, sharjah) corals have already been measurably affected by climate change and further negative impacts are expected. corals in south africa have been only weakly impacted and are expected to persist in this likely refuge. the arabian gulf has recently experienced high-frequency recurrences of temperature-related bleaching (1996, 1998, 2002). first evidence may suggest that bleaching patterns in corals changed due to phenotypic adaptation after two strong bleaching events in rapid succession, because acropora which during the 1996 and 1998 events always bleached first and suffered heaviest mortality, bleached less than all other corals in 2002 at sir abu nuair and recovered at jebel ali and ras hasyan. in south africa, reef corals largely escaped the mass mortalities observed across the tropics in the late 1990s, although bleaching has also increased since 1999. these reefs are protected by local small-scale upwelling events in summer that, if they occur at the right time, keep temperatures below bleaching levels. both areas, the arabian gulf and south africa, have rich coral faunas but little to no recent reefframework production. it is possible that many reefs worldwide may have similar dynamics in the future, if the changed climate (recurrence of temperature anomalies, changes in aragonite saturation state, etc.) suppresses sustained reef building at least temporarily. global climate models predict the possibility of significant environmental changes, including increases in atmospheric temperature, sea-surface temperature (sst), and sea level. monsoon and el nin~ o southeastern oscillation (enso) patterns might change, but climate models are not conclusive. sea-level rise by up to 0.88 m is expected to be a problem in some low-lying areas, like the southern arabian gulf. ocean aragonite saturation state is predicted to fall throughout the ocean but may not change reef dynamics in the two study areas. keywords coral reef ae climate change ae bleaching ae refugia ae mass mortality ae high latitude ae arabian gulf ae south africa
Where the information is framed?
all information is 'framed' by the context in which it appears84
That information about frame is intentional?
such framing can be either intentional or unintentional on the part of the communicator
This is a frame that achive the same conservation goals?
this is a very different frame to one that attempts to achieve the same conservation goals through, for example, emphasizing the intrinsic value of a rare animal species
all information is 'framed' by the context in which it appears84; such framing can be either intentional or unintentional on the part of the communicator. for example, putting a financial value on an endangered species, and building an economic case for their conservation 'commodifies' them, and makes them equivalent (at the level of the frame used to communicate about them) to other assets of the same value (like a hotel chain13). this is a very different frame to one that attempts to achieve the same conservation goals through, for example, emphasizing the intrinsic value of a rare animal species--that is, as something that should be protected in its own right. as the previous section demonstrates, there has been a rise in academic interest in how value orientations shape engagement with climate change. however, there has been perhaps even
What the results of the studies suggest?
climate change is as yet perceived by most people in developed countries
What have previous studies found about the topic of the text?
previous studies have also found that the public commonly confuses or conflates climate change with other environmental issues
According with the text, climate change is most commonly confused by the public with what?
the public commonly confuses or conflates climate change with other environmental issues, especially stratospheric ozone depletion, air pollution, and weather
similarly, dietz et al.11illustrate that a nontrivial 'wedge' of us emissions reductions could be achieved through individual and household actions, if behavior change programs were designed and delivered effectively. in order to mitigate effectively, future regulation, incentive programs, taxation schemes, and other policies may enlist individuals to change energyconsuming habits, travel modes, leisure activities, and could conceivably include calls for adjustments to individuals' food, lifestyle, and reproductive choices. the majority of studies to date have examined collective, public perceptions of climate change using primarily quantitative data drawn from large, often nationally representative samples. the results of these studies suggest the following generalized findings: climate change is as yet perceived by most people in developed countries as a distant threat that is removed from their lives both spatially and temporally. more specifically, climate change risks are perceived as nonpersonal, concerning the future, other places and people, and other species (plants and animals).6,12,13while many risks share this pattern--whereby individuals view themselves as less at-risk than they perceive others to be--the implication of such a pattern is that mitigative action is simply not perceived as particularly compelling or urgent. previous studies have also found that the public commonly confuses or conflates climate change with other environmental issues, especially stratospheric ozone depletion, air pollution, and weather.3-8,14-20this still holds true after 30 years of communicating climate change.1,2,21,22
True or False: There is no link between long-term studies and mathematical modeling?
there is a strong link between long-term studies and mathematical modelling
Why long-term studies seen as â€œmore difficult to plan and executeâ€ than short-term studies?
they are often more difficult to plan and execute than short-term studies and rarely yield immediate publications. they also require secure, long-term funding and such funding is rare. as ecology has moved from being a qualitative descriptive science to becoming a quantitative predictive science, awareness of the importance of long-term studies has increased
What rare events do long-term studies help to evaluate?
long-term studies are essential to provide estimates of baseline variation (it is na"ive to assume a constant baseline), to detect long-term trends in the mean level of the baseline, to detect and evaluate the effects of rare events e.g. droughts and spates) and to provide information for meaningful, testable
most ecologists agree that long-term studies are important but few conduct them. there are many reasons why they are rare. they are often more difficult to plan and execute than short-term studies and rarely yield immediate publications. they also require secure, long-term funding and such funding is rare. as ecology has moved from being a qualitative descriptive science to becoming a quantitative predictive science, awareness of the importance of long-term studies has increased. elliott (1994) summarized some examples of how they have provided critical data on a number of practical issues that are of concern to society. long-term studies are essential to provide estimates of baseline variation (it is na"ive to assume a constant baseline), to detect long-term trends in the mean level of the baseline, to detect and evaluate the effects of rare events e.g. droughts and spates) and to provide information for meaningful, testable hypotheses. there is a strong link between long-term studies and mathematical modelling. the development of ecological theory is necessary for the advancement of the science and long-term studies are required for the testing of the theory. both provide essential knowledge for the conservation and management of biodiversity in the natural environment. it must be remembered that all mathematical models are simplifications of reality. complex models require many parameters and it is easy to become lost
What is the Climate Disclosure Standards Board (CDSB)?
whose technical working group comprises accountants and representatives from the major international accountancy professional bodies (acca, icaew, cica etc
What is your objective?
the cdsb has the objective of developing a global framework for corporate reporting on climate change, and is pressing for climate change reporting to be integrated into mainstream financial reports (cdsb 2009
What is the Prince's Accounting for Sustainability Forum?
an international network of accounting organisations, albeit with a broader sustainability agenda (a4s 2009
there are a number of international accounting and climate change networks emerging which might be viewed as epistemic communities, with members connected through their accounting expertise and shared professional culture and values. one such example is the climate disclosure standards board (cdsb), formed in 2007, whose technical working group comprises accountants and representatives from the major international accountancy professional bodies (acca, icaew, cica etc). the cdsb has the objective of developing a global framework for corporate reporting on climate change, and is pressing for climate change reporting to be integrated into mainstream financial reports (cdsb 2009). another is the prince's accounting for sustainability forum, an international network of accounting organisations, albeit with a broader sustainability agenda (a4s 2009). additional new coalitions and alliances may yet emerge, as the accountancy profession seeks external links with other professions and disciplines. the situation remains in a state of flux.
How many alternatives were developed to evaluate the ability of the combined SWP/CVP System?
several alternatives were developed to evaluate the ability of the combined swp/cvp system to mitigate the impacts of climate change
What does the paper identify?
this paper identifies alternatives to current flood control rules and inflow forecasting methods that could assist in mitigating the impacts of climate change related to hydrograph timing and volume
What does DWR stand for?
department of water resources (dwr
several alternatives were developed to evaluate the ability of the combined swp/cvp system to mitigate the impacts of climate change. the hydrologic simulations (section 3.3) indicate that future inflows will differ in magnitude and timing from current inflows. this paper identifies alternatives to current flood control rules and inflow forecasting methods that could assist in mitigating the impacts of climate change related to hydrograph timing and volume. the alternatives considered are: * current operations (co) - uses current operating rules, as defined by the governing authorities, the california department of water resources (dwr) and 262 nathan t. vanrheenen et al.
What do some model systems seem to exhibit over a short time?
predictive skill for enso
In the 1986/87 ENSO event the warming extended eastward how far?
as far the midpacific
What was the outcome of the 1997/ 98 event?
increased surface temperature near peru by more than 5degc
the detailed features of any single enso event vary considerably from case to case, including when and where the initial warming starts. for example, the 1997/ 98 event increased surface temperature near peru by more than 5degc. in contrast, in the 1986/87 enso event the warming extended eastward only as far the midpacific (near 170degw) and the maximum temperature was a modest 1degc above normal. the warming from 1990 to 1994 consisted of three weak warm events and had a persistent "horseshoe shaped" sst anomaly. this irregularity reflects the complexity of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system and hints at the difficulties in predicting enso. much remains to be done on the fundamental question of the predictability limit for enso. beyond noting that some model systems seem to exhibit predictive skill for enso over a short time,
What are Crompton's arguments questioning these approaches?
crompton,165for instance, argues that current behavior change strategies typically aim at small, relatively painless behavioral changes (e.g., turning off the lights or switching to compact fluorescent light bulbs), in the hope that larger changes will follo
What can a change in one area of â€‹â€‹behavior lead to?
change in one behavioral domain can lead to inaction in other domains, a so-called negative spill-over effect
Why are current approaches to intervention needed?
current intervention approaches may serve to undermine the likelihood that multiple mitigative behaviors are adopted, thus detracting from the broader systemic changes needed to affect meaningful environmental impact
however, some authors have questioned these intervention approaches. crompton,165for instance, argues that current behavior change strategies typically aim at small, relatively painless behavioral changes (e.g., turning off the lights or switching to compact fluorescent light bulbs), in the hope that larger changes will follow. some surveys suggest that spill-over effects across behaviors that are similar in nature do occur,26but other evidence suggests that change in one behavioral domain can lead to inaction in other domains, a so-called negative spill-over effect,51which is reminiscent of the rebound effect. this suggests that current intervention approaches may serve to undermine the likelihood that multiple mitigative behaviors are adopted, thus detracting from the broader systemic changes needed to affect meaningful environmental impact.165
Why is the California chose as an initial casa?
chose california as an initial case because it is currently extremely vulnerable to changing climate
When is water consider in California?
water is considered, in part because nearly all precipitation is received between november and april
to explore this issue we focus on western north america, specifically california, in this study. we chose california as an initial case because it is currently extremely vulnerable to changing climate. this vulnerability is due to the coastal and latitudinal orientation of the state, the wide variety of microclimates, environments, and ecosystems, the large and growing population (32.1 million in 1995, estimated to grow to 47.5 million by 2020) cal. dept. of water resources 1998], and the rich agricultural resources ($26.8 billion in 1997, the highest yield of all states). california is especially vulnerable where water is considered, in part because nearly all precipitation is received between november and april.
Explain Intergovernmental Panel?
the intergovernmental panel on climate change holds considerable promise as the reporting body for assessing the wide range of experiments that have occurred around the world
Define IPCC and the Secretariat of the UN Framework Convention?
the ipcc and the secretariat of the un framework convention on climate change both should be strengthened to provide concrete guidance on methods and approaches for adaptation and management
Explain IPCC?
currently, the ipcc essentially mimics the non-adaptive policy world by concentrating huge amounts of effort from key scientists around state of the science reports every 5 years, and special reports that react to whatever current issues are deemed important
the intergovernmental panel on climate change holds considerable promise as the reporting body for assessing the wide range of experiments that have occurred around the world. the ipcc and the secretariat of the un framework convention on climate change both should be strengthened to provide concrete guidance on methods and approaches for adaptation and management. currently, the ipcc essentially mimics the non-adaptive policy world by concentrating huge amounts of effort from key scientists around state of the science reports every 5 years, and special reports that react to whatever current issues are deemed important. instead, the ipcc should re-tool to provide a continuous stream of interpretation of adaptive management experiments that are occurring. beyond specific ipcc and un initiatives, what is
What is a lower-than-market discount rate branded as?
using a lower discount rate than the market is therefore branded as a recipe for choosing dominated policies which either cost more today or pay less tomorrow, or both
The second argument used by the advocates of the market rate is that this rate measures the opportunity cost of resources.  According to this argument, if a climate policy costs $1 today and brings benefits worth $14.40 in one hundred years, is this policy is better or worse than the consumption of the $1 today if the discount rate is 2.7% or lower?
according to table 1, this policy is better than the consumption of the $1 today if the discount rate is 2.7% or lower
In the author's opinion, what is wrong with the second argument above?
it aims at the wrong target. more precisely, it relies in our view on a misunderstanding of the role of the discount rate
there are several mistakes in the argument. the first is to seek to impose the population preferences on every evaluator. obviously, there are many views in the population. if an evaluator wants to examine a development path with a great concern for the future, there must be some people in the population who share this concern. even if nobody shared this concern, the evaluator might be right against everyone else. just as there is freedom of thought, just as different political parties can have their own platforms, there should be a space for economic evaluation that embodies various views about social welfare and the principles of intergenerational equity. the reply to this objection will certainly be: any evaluation is admissible, but the government, in its decisions, cannot impose idiosyncratic views on the whole population. this is a powerful argument, even though history contains praiseworthy examples of governments imposing policies against the majority opinion (e.g., the abolition of death penalty in france in 1981). but this powerful democratic argument does not imply that the market interest rate should serve as the discount rate. it only requires a democratic debate to take place. this debate will have to ponder the various arguments underlying the computation of the discount rate. one cannot pretend to know the conclusions of this debate in order to prevent some propositions from reaching the debate. democratic principles cannot be used to bar some (minimally sound) ethical principles from the forum. one could still try to argue that the market does tell us something about the population preferences over intertemporal trade-offs. the market interest rates are determined by the joint effect of technical possibilities (the productivity of capital) and the willingness of investors to transfer wealth into the future, with a benefit. just like the relative market price of oranges and pears implies that all buyers active on both markets are willing to trade oranges for pears at this relative price, the interest rate indicates the investors' and savers' common marginal rate of substitution across time. this is true but investors and savers make decisions to transfer wealth for themselves by a few years. if they were asked to transfer wealth to other people living all over the world in many decades, they might express very different preferences. the financial markets don't ask them this outlandish question, and therefore we cannot pretend to use their answer to a different question for this purpose. observe, moreover, that the market interest rate also depends on the distribution of wealth in the population, which has no reason to be particularly democratic. even if there were markets in which people could express such preferences (private donations to environmental ngos focused on the climate might be the relevant source of information), it is doubtful that such preferences would be more respectable than the outcome of an outright democratic debate involving the relevant expertise and considering the best ethical arguments. in conclusion, if experts like stern propose a series of reasonable arguments leading to the conclusion that climate policies should be evaluated with a discount rate that is much lower than the market interest rate, they cannot be dismissed as undemocratic and off track. they should be admitted to the democratic debate and their arguments should be carefully listened to (without guarantee that they will be adopted). the second argument used by the advocates of the market rate is that this rate measures the opportunity cost of resources. this is the main argument considered, and endorsed, in pw. it is this argument that leads pw to propose using the market interest rate. this argument is crystal clear. suppose a climate policy costs $1 today and brings benefits worth $14.40 in one hundred years. according to table 1, this policy is better than the consumption of the $1 today if the discount rate is 2.7% or lower. the objection is that investing the same amount at the market rate, which is supposedly greater, would bring greater benefits to the future. using a lower discount rate than the market is therefore branded as a recipe for choosing dominated policies which either cost more today or pay less tomorrow, or both. this argument is very simple and extremely powerful. but it aims at the wrong target. more precisely, it relies in our view on a misunderstanding of the role of the discount rate. the purpose of the discount rate is to make consumption levels or monetary values comparable across time. it makes it possible to compute the net present value (npv) of any change to the status quo. if the npv is positive, the change is an improvement. but this does not mean that this particular change is optimal. in order to choose the best policy or project, one must compare the npv
What type of information do farmers prefer to rely on when considering planting decisions?
in many areas today, farmers prefer to rely on traditional knowledge and methods of forecasting climate for their planting decisions
What is a long lasting effect of climate change?
lastly, the poverty impacts of climate events can be severe and may persist for generations
What are some adaptation strategies farmers may use?
they may make use of adaptation strategies such as insurance, migration, technological change, investment in human capital, and reliance on natural resources, depending on the how these strategies are supported by institutions and policy environments
what over-arching conclusions can we draw from this body of empirical research on adaptation and rural poverty? farm households' strategic decisions are influenced by many factors including risk aversion, wealth levels, climate variability, and the surrounding policy and institutional environment. they may make use of adaptation strategies such as insurance, migration, technological change, investment in human capital, and reliance on natural resources, depending on the how these strategies are supported by institutions and policy environments. in many areas today, farmers prefer to rely on traditional knowledge and methods of forecasting climate for their planting decisions, although this may not persist as climate signals become noisier. as noted by quiggin and horowitz: "another way of looking at this is that the information held by economic actors about the climate becomes more diffuse, and hence less valuable in the presence of a new source of uncertainty. thus climate change may be regarded as destroying information. this information may in some cases be represented by formal probability distributions over temperature and rainfall derived from historical records. more frequently, it is the informal knowledge of particular local climates that is acquired by attentive individuals over a long period (quiggin and horowitz 2003, 444)." access to credit, assets, social networks, and safety nets all shape the decision environment, and the opportunity to migrate (if only seasonally) provides a crucial coping mechanism when local capacity is overwhelmed by disasters. yet "...the same resource - whether cattle, land, or education - will not be equally important for adaptation in all contexts (eakin 2005, 1934)." policy choices which can improve livelihoods today - such as improving insurance markets, investing in relevant climate forecasting capabilities, establishing water management institutions, and facilitating migration also have the potential to aid farmers in adapting to climate change but may not raise the general population above a new subsistence equilibrium. lastly, the poverty impacts of climate events can be severe and may persist for generations.
When does the geese fly around?
1) dark-bellied brent geese and barnacle geese fly a narrow corridor both in spring and autumn
Where do the geese fly to?
between the netherlands, the baltic/white sea and the russian coastal breeding colonies
Where do the geese breed?
breeding in greenland, iceland, spitsbergen and arctic russia fall
the continental migration routes across europe show two distinct avenues: (1) dark-bellied brent geese and barnacle geese fly a narrow corridor both in spring and autumn between the netherlands, the baltic/white sea and the russian coastal breeding colonies. staging is concentrated at a few stopover sites; (2) greater whitefront and bean geese a. fabalis migrate over a wide front from the netherlands to eastern europe and then north to the russian taiga and tundra belts where they have many and scattered nesting sites. the positions of spring staging sites in late april and may for seven populations of six species are indicated in fig. 4. these sites and those of populations of other species breeding in greenland, iceland, spitsbergen and arctic russia fall
What kind of dust is a key aspect of the climate system?
aeolian dust is a key aspect of the climate system
What can dust do to Earth?
dust can modify the earth's energy budget, provide long-range transport of nutrients, and influence land surface processes via erosion
Why do all models fail to reproduce basic aspects of dust emission and transport?
the models systematically underestimate dust emission, transport and optical depth, and year-to-year changes in these properties bear little resemblance to observations. our findings cast doubt on the ability of these models to simulate the regional climate and the response of african dust to future climate change
aeolian dust is a key aspect of the climate system. dust can modify the earth's energy budget, provide long-range transport of nutrients, and influence land surface processes via erosion. consequently, effective modeling of the climate system, particularly at regional scales, requires a reasonably accurate representation of dust emission, transport, and deposition. here we evaluate african dust in 23 state-of-the-art global climate models used in the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. we find that all models fail to reproduce basic aspects of dust emission and transport over the second half of the 20th century. the models systematically underestimate dust emission, transport and optical depth, and year-to-year changes in these properties bear little resemblance to observations. our findings cast doubt on the ability of these models to simulate the regional climate and the response of african dust to future climate change.
how else can variable input be likely affected by climate change?
another example of how variable input use is likely to be affected by climate change is motivated by crops' response to elevated co2 levels
What is needed to translate higher CO2 into faster plant growth?
in order to translate higher co2 into faster plant growth, nutrient availability may need to be increased to facilitate the faster growth
Explain the effect of heightened CO2 levels  in the absence of changes in temperature or precipitation
heightened co2 levels - in the absence of changes in temperature or precipitation - shift the expected value function upward and to the right such that the optimal intensity of variable inputs also rises
another example of how variable input use is likely to be affected by climate change is motivated by crops' response to elevated co2 levels. in order to translate higher co2 into faster plant growth, nutrient availability may need to be increased to facilitate the faster growth. this means a higher rate of fertilizer application is desirable. in contrast to the climate impacts shown in figure 1, heightened co2 levels - in the absence of changes in temperature or precipitation - shift the expected value function upward and to the right such that the optimal intensity of variable inputs also rises. in some cases, we may wish to think of the two production systems in figure 1 as current choices facing producers - as opposed to technology b
what does the recent research on equity issues in climate change believe?
we believe approaching climate change probabilistically gives the best chances of assuring that scientists' and decision-makers' respective areas of expertise are applied credibly to the policy process
what did this study spend considerable time on ?
we have also spent considerable time on our climate change website, where we present facts on climate science, impacts, and policy; maintain an up-to-date climate news section; and discuss various problems related to and solutions for getting messages on climate change out to policymakers and the public (including a very tongue-in-cheek section called "mediarology
what did they use to find "optimal" abatement policy solutions?
using integrated assessment models to find "optimal" abatement (and other) policy solutions
other recent research has centered on equity issues in climate change (and especially abrupt climate change), particularly on the uneven distribution of effects climate change promises to bring and the injustice inherent in the policymaking process itself. we have also spent considerable time on our climate change website, where we present facts on climate science, impacts, and policy; maintain an up-to-date climate news section; and discuss various problems related to and solutions for getting messages on climate change out to policymakers and the public (including a very tongue-in-cheek section called "mediarology"). in summary, my group's work has focused on climate science and impacts (including equity impacts), climate policy, and the crossroads between them. we attempt to express uncertainties in climate science and impacts estimation quantitatively as probability functions, though we do not assign high confidence to such probability distributions; much more research is needed in this area. we believe approaching climate change probabilistically gives the best chances of assuring that scientists' and decision-makers' respective areas of expertise are applied credibly to the policy process. status: a multitude of projects continue in the areas of subjective probabilities, "dangerous" climate change, surprises, evidence of anthropogenic climate change affecting plant and animal communities (known as fingerprinting studies), using integrated assessment models to find "optimal" abatement (and other) policy solutions, and other topics. selected publications: mastrandrea, m.d. and s.h. schneider, 2004: "probabilistic integrated assessment of 'dangerous' climate change," science 304: 571-573. root, t.l., j.t. price, k.r. hall, s.h. schneider, c. rosenzweig, and j. a. pounds, 2003:
Why were necessary to calculate the weight?
the weights were necessary because the spatial area represented by a grid-box varies with latitude; the weight of each grid-box was the cosine of its latitude
How it works the compromise between the countries?
the set of 'countries' employed here is the product of a compromise between a definition derived from united nations (un) membership, and a definition based on climatic coherence. for example, strict un membership would require the 'united kingdom' to include grid-boxes representing gibraltar and the falklands, whereas climatic coherence requires geographically distinct territories or islands to be treated separately
What kind of compromise were adopted between UN and some of the countries?
the compromise adopted here is to use united nations (un) boundaries wherever possible (e.g. the danish archipelago was included within 'denmark'), but to treat any overseas possessions as separate 'countries' (e.g. 'greenland'). thus a set of 289 'countries' was developed, comprising 188 states recognized by the un, and a further 101 islands and territories
this need has been met by building upon previous work, in which observations from meteorological stations were assimilated onto a 0.5  latitude by 0.5  longitude grid covering the land surface of the earth (new et al. 1999 2000). in this new data-set, the gridded data were transformed into 'country' averages by allocating each 0.5  grid-box to a single 'country', and calculating the weighted mean of the constituent grid-boxes of each 'country'. the weights were necessary because the spatial area represented by a grid-box varies with latitude; the weight of each grid-box was the cosine of its latitude. we place 'country' in inverted commas because in many cases the spatial aggregation is based on a territory or island. the set of 'countries' employed here is the product of a compromise between a definition derived from united nations (un) membership, and a definition based on climatic coherence. for example, strict un membership would require the 'united kingdom' to include grid-boxes representing gibraltar and the falklands, whereas climatic coherence requires geographically distinct territories or islands to be treated separately. the compromise adopted here is to use united nations (un) boundaries wherever possible (e.g. the danish archipelago was included within 'denmark'), but to treat any overseas possessions as separate 'countries' (e.g. 'greenland'). thus a set of 289 'countries' was developed, comprising 188 states recognized by the un, and a further 101 islands and territories. these statistics highlight the large number of small island states that are individually represented. each land grid-box was allocated to an individual 'country' by visual inspection. where more than one country had land within a grid-box, the box was allocated to the country with the single largest stake within that grid-box, except where a un country would otherwise be unrepresented (e.g. san marino). where the ownership of a territory is under dispute, the recognition of ownership made by the un was used. thus a data-set has been developed which contains month-by-month variations for each of 289 'countries' and for seven surface climate variables: daily mean temperature and precipitation
What is suggested by the model results highlighted by Diffenbaugh et al.?
diffenbaugh et al. (2) highlight model results that suggest the emergence of a climatic regime in which all future dry years coincide with warmer conditions
What part of the United States has a growing risk of unprecedented drought?
that study similarly concludes that there is growing risk of unprecedented drought in the western united states
What degree of temperature change will society need to limit global warming to in order to prevent major drought in California?
if society works to limit global warming to under 2 degc, which is still possible (1), then we can likely avoid committing to a brown california
in addition, diffenbaugh et al. (2) highlight model results that suggest the emergence of a climatic regime in which all future dry years coincide with warmer conditions. as they note, the region is moving toward " a transition to a permanent condition of ~ 100% risk that any negative -- or extremely negative -- 12-mo precipitation anomaly is also extremely warm " (2). the conclusions of diffenbaugh et al. (2) do not stand in isolation. indeed, they reinforce the results of another new study analyzing future climate model projections (14). that study similarly concludes that there is growing risk of unprecedented drought in the western united states driven primarily by rising temperatures, regardless of whether or not there is a clear trend in precipitation. that might sound like bad news, and certainly the trends are moving rapidly in the wrong direction. the good news, however, is that this is only one possible future. if society works to limit global warming to under 2 degc, which is still possible (1), then we can likely avoid committing to a brown california. california still has a chance to remain the golden state.
What did Simons and Tonak argue?
they argued that "climate debt" perpetuates a system that assigns economic and financial value to the biosphere, ecosystems and in this case a molecule of co2
What was key about the mobilisations in Copenhagen?
the mobilisations in copenhagen were a key site in which attempts to rework and deepen neoliberal logics through responses to the financial crisis were contested
What terms were up for intense debate in the wake of the Copenhagen mobilisations?
in the wake of the mobilisations in copenhagen the terms on which climate justice and debt were constructed became the subject of intense debate
in the wake of the mobilisations in copenhagen the terms on which climate justice and debt were constructed became the subject of intense debate. for simons and tonak climate justice was a tainted term which suggested forms of accomodationist politics. they argued that "climate debt" perpetuates a system that assigns economic and financial value to the biosphere, ecosystems and in this case a molecule of co2 (which, in reductionist science, readily translates into degrees celsius). they contend that it is an "equalising dynamic" which "infects relations between the global north and south with the same logic of commodification that is central to those markets on which carbon is traded upon" (simons and tonak 2010). for other commentators such as the influential uk-based activist mark lynas, climate justice sought to engage with inequalities which it is necessary to defer until after carbon emissions have been significantly reduced (lynas 2010). the understanding of climate justice set out in this paper as generated through logics of antagonism, solidarity and commoning seeks to move beyond this impasse. it intervenes in the contested terms through which climate justice is being articulated by diverse movements. our position productively engages with the tensions which have surrounded the term in the wake of the copenhagen mobilisations. in particular, locating climate justice as part of antagonistic claims and political trajectories unsettles reductive accounts which position climate justice as inevitably part of an accomodationist politics and which position emerging forms of climate politics as ineradicably post-political. in this regard the mobilisations in copenhagen were a key site in which attempts to rework and deepen neoliberal logics through responses to the financial crisis were contested. the financial crisis, and the accompanying questioning of the hegemony of neoliberalism, was invoked in diverse ways through the protests.
Why is it useful to consider multiple working hypotheses about the evolution of cyanobacteria and Earth's planetary oxygenation event?
because of the importance of the evolution of cyanobacteria and the planetary oxygenation event in earth history
In the presented alternative scenario, what disaster did the genesis of oxygenic photosynthesis trigger?
in our alternative scenario, an evolutionary accident, the genesis of oxygenic photosynthesis, triggered one of the world's worst climate disasters, the paleoproterozoic snowball earth
What may be revealed by intensive investigation of the time period of the Paleoproterozoic glaciations?
intensive investigation of the time period of the paleoproterozoic glaciations may reveal whether a novel biological trait is capable of radically altering the world and nearly bringing an end to life on earth
summary because of the importance of the evolution of cyanobacteria and the planetary oxygenation event in earth history, it is particularly useful to consider multiple working hypotheses about these events. we propose a model that takes a skeptical attitude toward the evidence for archean cyanobacteria and a protracted early proterozoic planetary oxygenation. in our alternative scenario, an evolutionary accident, the genesis of oxygenic photosynthesis, triggered one of the world's worst climate disasters, the paleoproterozoic snowball earth. intensive investigation of the time period of the paleoproterozoic glaciations may reveal whether a novel biological trait is capable of radically altering the world and nearly bringing an end to life on earth.
What year in sited in the text?
dessai and hulme 2007
What  is necessary to improve our understanding of potential future changes?
however, improving climatic and hydrologic models as well as the development 9 and implementation of downscaling methods is necessary to improve our understanding of potential future changes
Where is the river basin metioned?
ecuador
uncertainties related to projections of future climate can have a profound effect on the planning of adaptation strategies. this study analyses the impact of uncertainties related to gcm projections on future changes of streamflow in the paute river basin, ecuador. although uncertainties in the hydrological model and downscaling techniques are neglected, prediction ranges are very wide, and of the same magnitude as current discharges. this uncertainty should be taken into account when designing adaptation actions. short-term strategies may aim towards improved resilience of water supply systems dessai and hulme 2007). however, improving climatic and hydrologic models as well as the development 9 and implementation of downscaling methods is necessary to improve our understanding of potential future changes.
What is the main analysis of the article?
based on unique data from a world-wide survey of agents involved in international climate policy, this paper empirically analyzes the importance of equity in this field
What analyzes does the article present?
our econometric analysis shows a strong influence of the economic or emission performance of the agents' country on the importance of equity issues and principles
Are agents in richer countries favorable or unfavorable to the incorporation of the egalitarian principle?
in the long-run, agents from richer countries are more in favor of incorporating the egalitarian principle
based on unique data from a world-wide survey of agents involved in international climate policy, this paper empirically analyzes the importance of equity in this field. we find that equity issues are considered highly important in international climate negotiations and that the polluter-pays rule and the accompanying poor losers rule are the most widely accepted equity principles. our econometric analysis shows a strong influence of the economic or emission performance of the agents' country on the importance of equity issues and principles: (i) equity issues are seen as more important by individuals from g77/china countries or from countries with less current per capita gdp and less future per capita co2 emissions. (ii) agents from richer countries are less in favor of incorporating the polluter-pays and the ability-to-pay principle in future international climate agreements. (iii) the poor losers rule is more strongly supported by individuals from g77/china countries or by individuals from countries with less current per capita gdp. while these results are consistent with pure economic self-interest, the support for the egalitarian principle runs contrary to economic intuition: in the long-run, agents from richer countries are more in favor of incorporating the egalitarian principle. furthermore, the effect of the economic performance variables on the desired degree of incorporating the polluter-pays principle interestingly becomes less significant in the long-run. this indicates that future international climate agreements could possibly be based on a combination of the polluter-pays, the egalitarian, and the poor losers rule.
What Ghana and Nepal showed very little tendency to?
to switch away from biomass energy in the wake of relative price changes
What climate change is expected to alter?
the goods and services that natural resources can provide in developing countries, which will disproportionately affect consumption, production, and asset accumulation of the rural poor
Who are better able to adapt to gradual climate changes ?
households
ghana and nepal showed very little tendency to switch away from biomass energy in the wake of relative price changes. to summarize, the link between natural resources and poverty is complex and highly contingent on local endowments and cultural norms. climate change is expected to alter the goods and services that natural resources can provide in developing countries, which will disproportionately affect consumption, production, and asset accumulation of the rural poor. dynamics of adaptation with the framework in place connecting the impacts of climate change to agriculture production and then to poverty, we return to the question of adaptation. as previously discussed, the impact of climate change on poverty depends critically on the time frame over which it occurs. households are better able to adapt to gradual changes; short run climate shocks do not allow sufficient time for adaptation, generally speaking. adaptation is an inherently dynamic process, and occurs in the context of other endogenous dynamic processes including population growth, migration, technological change, economic growth, and structural transformation. adaptation can take place at different decision-making scales (household, organization, national) and at different geographical scales (risbey et al. 1999). it can be shaped by environmental factors such as proximity to town/market, proximity to year-round water sources, and adequate precipitation for agriculture and livestock (ziervogel, bharwani, and downing 2006, 295). adaptation decisions are also shaped by the policy environment in which decision-makers operate, i.e. social safety nets, trade policies, market price support and stockholding, land tenure and water rights, and the ability of stakeholders to participate in political processes (w. n adger et al. 2007; kelly and w. n. adger 2000; smit et
What are the different factors on which delivery of education messages depend?
the delivery of education messages may be by various means, depending on context and resources, including written materials, radio and television broadcasts, public meetings and demonstrations, and household visits
A newspaper article on public safety during the 2004 floods in which nation illustrates the role of media in information provision?
a newspaper article on public safety during the 2004 floods in bangladesh illustrates the role of the media in information provision, offering specific advice for householders on topics such as use of salvaged food, disconnection of electrical appliances and the threat from venomous snakes taking refuge in homes (the daily star, 2004
What appears to be the key to effective education?
but whatever the timing of delivery the key to effective education appears to be advance planning to ensure information provided is accessible, appropriate and widely disseminated
the delivery of education messages may be by various means, depending on context and resources, including written materials, radio and television broadcasts, public meetings and demonstrations, and household visits. in vietnam, much of this work is undertaken through conventional propaganda channels such as the local government loudspeakers sited throughout communities (few et al. 2004). following the orissa cyclone (1999), unicef assisted with production of handbills and loudspeaker announcements, and supported a series of hygiene education programmes for 3,900 teachers (palakudiyil and todd, 2003). a newspaper article on public safety during the 2004 floods in bangladesh illustrates the role of the media in information provision, offering specific advice for householders on topics such as use of salvaged food, disconnection of electrical appliances and the threat from venomous snakes taking refuge in homes (the daily star, 2004). issues in education activities health and hygiene education can be provided as flood preparedness in flood-seasonal environments or distributed as emergency response during and after the flood event. but whatever the timing of delivery the key to effective education appears to be advance planning to ensure information provided is accessible, appropriate and widely disseminated. for example, drawing lessons from the experience of hurricane floyd (1999) in north carolina, usa, becker et al. (1999, p371-372) note: 'public service announcements, educational materials, and training programs on hurricane preparedness should be made accessible to all communities before the hurricane season'. the manual for contingency planning for floods produced by caribbean environmental health institute (2003) stresses that for each aspect of environmental health a key action is to ensure not only that public advisory and education materials are developed but also that mechanisms are in place to disseminate them.
What does the content of this paper make abundantly clear, according to the author?
the content of this paper makes it abundantly clear why some sort of new adaptation initiative is needed and also why it is not likely to be quickly achieved
This paper states that the world of adaptation remains in what state?
the world of adaptation remains fragmented and diverse, and in the absence of some courageous new initiative seems likely to remain so
What is there much current discussion about?
there is much current discussion about a closer integration between mitigation and adaptation, apparently on the assumption that this would result in important synergies and facilitate work in both response categories
a second issue concerns the allocation of adaptation work within the unfccc context. there is much current discussion about a closer integration between mitigation and adaptation, apparently on the assumption that this would result in important synergies and facilitate work in both response categories. at one extreme adaptation could be largely absorbed within the existing mitigation regime. it might then become as much, or even more, a kyoto protocol activity than a convention activity. at the other extreme there is clearly an opportunity to create a parallel adaptation regime by the negotiation of an adaptation protocol which has recently been suggested by the government of china. the content of this paper makes it abundantly clear why some sort of new adaptation initiative is needed and also why it is not likely to be quickly achieved. it is perhaps too soon to speak of an emerging adaptation regime, when the character and direction of the regime remains so unclear. there are implications for the world bank in the current discussion about the closer integration of mitigation and adaptation. the bank's climate change work has mirrored the global pattern of giving overwhelming attention to mitigation, and of addressing adaptation as a separate and very much lesser concern. it is appropriate therefore to address the convergence question in the context of the bank's future programming. the world of adaptation remains fragmented and diverse, and in the absence of some courageous new initiative seems likely to remain so. the challenge for the bank is to steer a course of
What has been a result of fossil fuel combustion in global climate change been more defined?
as the role of fossil fuel combustion in global climate change has been more clearly defined in recent decades (thompson, 1995), there has been increasing evidence that there will be direct, indirect, and interactive effects of the pollutants responsible for climate change on biological systems (ipcc, 2001
What changes have important implications?
changes in carbon fixation and allocation to roots and shoots, alterations in nutrient supply, and changes in sensitivity to water stress have been demonstrated at ambient concentrations of air pollutants for a few intensively studied tree species from diverse forest systems, and such changes have important implications for how forests can be expected to respond to climatic stresses
What is said to be responsible for climage change on the biology of the planet?
the pollutants responsible for climate change on biological systems (ipcc, 2001
as the role of fossil fuel combustion in global climate change has been more clearly defined in recent decades (thompson, 1995), there has been increasing evidence that there will be direct, indirect, and interactive effects of the pollutants responsible for climate change on biological systems (ipcc, 2001). changes in carbon fixation and allocation to roots and shoots, alterations in nutrient supply, and changes in sensitivity to water stress have been demonstrated at ambient concentrations of air pollutants for a few intensively studied tree species from diverse forest systems, and such changes have important implications for how forests can be expected to respond to climatic stresses (skarby
What are the estimates based on?
the estimates based on the munich re data
Why are the estimates from Munich Re data under-estimates?
because only data from large events are included and (as the unfccc study notes), this leaves out the cost of a high proportion of all extreme-weather disaster
What is the estimated cost for responding to the impact of climate change?
the present study concludes that removing the housing and infrastructure deficit in lowand middle-income countries will cost around $315 billion per year (in today's figures) over 20 years. adapting this upgraded infrastructure specifically to meet the challenge of climate change will cost an additional $16-63 billion per year. investment in adaptation will not avoid all damages to infrastructure. the annual economic damage caused by large extreme-weather disasters, 1996-2005, was over $50 billion a year
the estimates based on the munich re data are likely to be substantial under-estimates of damages from climate because only data from large events are included and (as the unfccc study notes), this leaves out the cost of a high proportion of all extreme-weather disasters. the climate-cost fraction of 0.7-2.7% was recognised as being low by the authors of the background papers to the unfccc report, and in earlier work they adopted climate-cost fractions of 2-10% for domestic investment and up to 40% for overseas development assistance. applying a climate mark-up to levels of infrastructure provision that are currently very low (e.g. in most countries in africa, many in asia, and considerable parts of latin america and the caribbean) yields low estimations of future cost. infrastructure provision needs substantial improvement to meet present-day needs and these are partly embraced in the millennium development goals. the present study concludes that removing the housing and infrastructure deficit in lowand middle-income countries will cost around $315 billion per year (in today's figures) over 20 years. adapting this upgraded infrastructure specifically to meet the challenge of climate change will cost an additional $16-63 billion per year. investment in adaptation will not avoid all damages to infrastructure. the annual economic damage caused by large extreme-weather disasters, 1996-2005, was over $50 billion a year. this gives an indication of weather impacts that are currently not avoided by adaptation - even in countries where the population is served by protective infrastructure and good-quality buildings.
In which city has the energy supply management caused many deaths?
california is perhaps the prime example of a region where mismanagement of energy supplies has caused widespread hardship, and death
The privatization of which sector caused blackouts?
in california, the supplies across the whole state have been affected by rolling blackouts in recent years, due in part to poorly managed privatization of the electricity industry and an inflexible legislative system
In what year did excessive heat cause demand from private companies?
very high energy demand from buildings, for instance in the heatwave of 2000, caused a surge in demand and private companies
california is perhaps the prime example of a region where mismanagement of energy supplies has caused widespread hardship, and death. in california, the supplies across the whole state have been affected by rolling blackouts in recent years, due in part to poorly managed privatization of the electricity industry and an inflexible legislative system. very high energy demand from buildings, for instance in the heatwave of 2000, caused a surge in demand and private companies, once a price cap was lifted in june, raised their prices by up to three times in a matter of months. poor management, in part by the enron corporation and the state, resulted in outages in many cities and settlements. reasons given for these failures included:
To describe climate hazards?
to have an impact on food security in southern africa, climate information and seasonal climate forecasts need to be placed within a much wider context that includes not only the improvements of the product (e.g. forecasts) but also efforts to better understand the needs and demands of society to better manage climate risks
What is food security planning?
if development planning, including food security planning, is to be successful, then this may require new integrated planning approaches, different considerations with regard to the institutionalization of forecasts (demand assessment, production and dissemination) and new methodologies for promoting the perception of concepts such as food security as processes rather than end products
What are the development needs of the region?
if the emphasis continues to focus only on the production of climate information, divorced from the development needs of a region, and does not pay serious attention to the holistic implementation required to avert crisis and chronic problems, then adverse situations will persist despite wellmeaning efforts
to have an impact on food security in southern africa, climate information and seasonal climate forecasts need to be placed within a much wider context that includes not only the improvements of the product (e.g. forecasts) but also efforts to better understand the needs and demands of society to better manage climate risks. if development planning, including food security planning, is to be successful, then this may require new integrated planning approaches, different considerations with regard to the institutionalization of forecasts (demand assessment, production and dissemination) and new methodologies for promoting the perception of concepts such as food security as processes rather than end products. if the emphasis continues to focus only on the production of climate information, divorced from the development needs of a region, and does not pay serious attention to the holistic implementation required to avert crisis and chronic problems, then adverse situations will persist despite wellmeaning efforts:
How many parts are the ZmmunoZogy series arranged in and what do these parts consist of?
zmmunozogy series started. it has 18 chapters arranged in 5 part-the basis of immunity, the recognition of antigen, the acquired immune response, immunity to infection, and clinical immunology
Do the chapters contain any external links?
each chapter has a revision section at the end, and there is a link to a website with multiple choice questions
What are the main characteristics of the layout?
it still has 180 pages in a large format, but the layout is clear and informative and it is very easy to read
zmmunozogy series started. it has 18 chapters arranged in 5 part-the basis of immunity, the recognition of antigen, the acquired immune response, immunity to infection, and clinical immunology. the text is clearly written and accompanied by diagrams and colour photographs; these are mostly of high quality although a few appear rather grainy. some are old friends to those familiar with the other books from this stable, or new versions of old friends, such as the apple as an antigen held by 6 fingers representing the binding site of an antibody molecule. others are brand new, such as the contour plot of a proteosome. each chapter has a revision section at the end, and there is a link to a website with multiple choice questions. a reading list provides suggestions for further reading on each topic, including both recent reviews and more classical papers. this text book is designed to give students the 'absolute essentials', and has been designed for busy medical and science students learning immunology. it still has 180 pages in a large format, but the layout is clear and informative and it is very easy to read. the sections on immunodeficiency, hypersensitivity, transplantation, tumour immunology and autoimmunity will make it all relevant for medical students. all in all, this book provides an up-to-date companion to a basic immunology course, and a solid framework on which students can build in the future. hazel m. dockrell
What is one of the political-economic characteristics of a state that may be one of the most important causes of policy change at the state level ?
wealthier states may be more apt to partake in policy experimentation due to the ability to implement costly public programs
What is another of the political-economic characteristics of a state that may be one of the most important causes of policy change at the state level ?
the ideological position of the citizens of a state is often the most important determinant and functions as a political resource of state policy action (ringquist garand, 1999
How does the author approximate financial resource figures?
 i approximate state financial resources using gsp per capita
state policy adoption is a function of political and economic resources as well. the political-economic characteristics of a state may be many of the most important causes of policy change at the state level (ringquist garand, 1999). specifically, wealthier states may be more apt to partake in policy experimentation due to the ability to implement costly public programs. second, the ideological position of the citizens of a state is often the most important determinant and functions as a political resource of state policy action (ringquist garand, 1999). in the context of state energy policies, i expect that states with a higher income level will be more likely to implement climate change policies. i also expect that states with more liberal citizen bases will be more likely to support government intervention to change energy consumption behavior and thus will lead to more energy programs. i approximate state financial resources using gsp per capita. this figure was calculated using bureau of economic analysis data for gsp (bureau of economic analysis, 2006) and population data from the census bureau (u.s. census bureau, 2007). data are measured in real 2000 chained u.s. dollars per capita. i estimate the ideology of a state's citizens using berry and others' citizen ideology index, which seeks to measure the mean position on a liberal-conservative continuum of
What is a watershed?
a watershed is an area of land that is drained by a common watercourse. in india over the past three decades, watersheds of from fifty to a few thousand hectares have been the focus of increasingly intensive development efforts, particularly in the semi-arid zones
Name two of the initiatives?
two initiatives, sukhomajri and the pani panchayats granted the landless rights in the additional surface water that was generated in exchange for their collaboration in conserving soil and vegetation in the upper watershed
What is a more inclusive approach to watershed called?
more inclusive approach is often referred to as "watershed plus
case study 2: watershed development in india: learning and changing over decades a watershed is an area of land that is drained by a common watercourse. in india over the past three decades, watersheds of from fifty to a few thousand hectares have been the focus of increasingly intensive development efforts, particularly in the semi-arid zones. many are characterized by eroded slopes, degraded pastures and forests in their upper reaches and falling water tables. these are areas of intense poverty and food insecurity that have been largely bypassed by the green revolution which transformed agriculture in more favoured areas. the first, large-scale watershed projects were led by a narrow disciplinary focus on soils and hydrology and a concern with correcting the physical symptoms of degradation. the dominant intervention was the construction of infrastructure to retain water and slow erosion, such as check dams, gully plugs and land levelling. typically this was accompanied by a ban on grazing and harvesting of forest products on the ridges in order to slow run-off and permit groundwater to recharge. the visual impact of these actions was often striking. within a few seasons, once bare hillsides were covered in grass, shrubs, and young trees; wells that had ran dry not long after the rains now provided drinking water all or most of the year. however, the benefits were badly skewed: farmers in the lower reaches whose crops had withered when the rains faltered could now harvest once and often twice a year with irrigation. people dependent on fodder and forest products from the upper parts - women, the landless, tribal people and those of lower castes - were hurt by the restrictions. these groups typically had also little voice in village councils. a number of pioneering village-level projects initiated in the 1970's sought innovative ways to avoid this structural inequality. two initiatives, sukhomajri and the pani panchayats granted the landless rights in the additional surface water that was generated in exchange for their collaboration in conserving soil and vegetation in the upper watershed. they were able to capitalize on these rights by selling the water to farmers or using it on rented land. substantial benefits were realized in environmental terms and in broad-based social and economic impacts (kerr et al. 2002). these projects were extremely influential and inspired a range of efforts by both government and ngos. while few were able to replicate the particular social innovations, other approaches emerged including expanding employment opportunities based on natural resources and local opportunities outside agriculture. fostering the development of institutions that can give voice to the interests of women, the landless and tribal groups has been central, among them the self-help affinity-based groups and federations of these groups pioneered by ngos, notably myrada in karnataka (fernandez 2003). these groups are represented in the watershed committees that are established to oversee implementation and which ensure that local concerns and ideas guide the work. this broadened, more inclusive approach is often referred to as "watershed plus" (). government-led efforts that drew on the successes of sukhomajri and the pani panchayats tended to borrow from their technological innovations rather than their social ones. rigid implementation guidelines and schedules were imposed that contributed to limited local ownership and benefits that in many cases were not sustained beyond the project period in response, several european bilateral agencies
Increase of downwelling?
december is also the time when increased downwelling is not restricted to the polar region, but extends to 40degn
Increase of upwelling ?
december is also the time when increased downwelling is not restricted to the polar region, but extends to 40degn, while increased upwelling is found across the entire tropics
What's BDC?
the brewerdobson circulation (bdc
manzini et al. (c)2014. american geophysical union. all rights reserved. 14 in the polar stratosphere from autumn to midwinter (january) and for a deep layer of the stratosphere, 100 - 10 hpa (shaded regions of figure 9b). in the lower stratosphere (50 hpa), november - december is also the time when increased downwelling is not restricted to the polar region, but extends to 40degn, while increased upwelling is found across the entire tropics (figure 9d). in summary, figures 8 and 9 provide evidence that in late autumn and early winter, the increase in the brewerdobson circulation (bdc) extends to the polar region, thus with the potential to lead to the weakening of the highlatitude stratospheric winds shown in figure 2a. for further analysis of the bdc in the cmip5 models, see hardiman et al. [2013].
What are the stages essential in the cleaning process?
1. determination of the pond geometry based on the design or on a topographic survey. management of the sludge from stabilisation ponds 647 2. accomplishment of the pond bathymetry, defining bathymetric sections, liquid height of the pond, and depth of the sludge layer. 3. physical-chemical and microbiological characterisation of the sludge. 4. definition of the technique to be adopted in the removal of the sludge and, if necessary, in the sludge dewatering and transportation. 5. definition of the adequate final destination of the sludge, considering the lowest possible environmental impacts
What is the purpose of the planning of removing the sludge?
the planning of the sludge removal from a pond has the purpose of minimising costs, anticipating solutions to occasional problems, and reducing impacts related to the sludge removal and disposal
Which steps are pre-requisites?
certainly, stages 1, 2, and 3 are pre-requisites for the implementation of stage 4, which defines the technique to remove the sludge from the pond
the planning of the sludge removal from a pond has the purpose of minimising costs, anticipating solutions to occasional problems, and reducing impacts related to the sludge removal and disposal. the following stages are essential in the cleaning operation: 1. determination of the pond geometry based on the design or on a topographic survey. management of the sludge from stabilisation ponds 647 2. accomplishment of the pond bathymetry, defining bathymetric sections, liquid height of the pond, and depth of the sludge layer. 3. physical-chemical and microbiological characterisation of the sludge. 4. definition of the technique to be adopted in the removal of the sludge and, if necessary, in the sludge dewatering and transportation. 5. definition of the adequate final destination of the sludge, considering the lowest possible environmental impacts. certainly, stages 1, 2, and 3 are pre-requisites for the implementation of stage 4, which defines the technique to remove the sludge from the pond. although there is no consensus on the technique, its selection has a direct impact on the water content of the sludge and, therefore, on the sludge volume to be disposed of later on. the subsequent items describe the sludge removal stage. the possible sludge processing (dewatering, disinfection) and its disposal are dealt with in part 7 of this book.
What are considered lateral boundaries?
era-20c-basedfields as lateral boundaries
What compares well over the recent decades?
since the surface pressure has been assimilated in all reanalyses used here, the general circulation (gauged here by the 500hpa geopotential height in fig. 2) including the north atlantic oscillation (nao) compares well over the recent decades (belleflamme et al., 2013
What are induced over Greenland?
which underestimates wind speed at 500 hpa, inducing anti-clockwise circulation anomalies over greenland (see figs. 2g and 2h
era-20c-basedfields as lateral boundaries. finally, as the warm bias from 20crv2 is partly corrected in 20crv2c and 6 is now centred around zero on averagewith a too warm atmosphere at the north of greenland and too cold at the south-west, unmodified 20crv2c temperatures are then used to force mar at its lateral boundaries. since the surface pressure has been assimilated in all reanalyses used here, the general circulation (gauged here by the 500hpa geopotential height in fig. 2) including the north atlantic oscillation (nao) compares well over the recent decades (belleflamme et al., 2013) ,except for 20crv2(c), which underestimates wind speed at 500 hpa, inducing anti-clockwise circulation anomalies over greenland (see figs. 2g and 2h). moreover, as a consequence of the lack of (or less reliable) assimilated 5
What are examples of SLR impacts?
shoreline changes, wetland losses, and other ecosystem consequences
What does an adaptive risk management approach typically entail?
a careful risk identification; b vulnerability assessment and evaluation; c systematic development and assessment of adaptation strategies; d iterative decision making combined with deliberate learning; e decisions with long time horizons that maximize flexibility, enhance robustness, and ensure durability; and f a portfolio of approaches rather than single technological fixes or market mechanisms
What can predictive models be used to forecast?
predictive models can be used to forecast where erosion hazards are highest
to facilitate adaptation decisions over time, policy makers at certain times in the adaptation planning and implementation process need credible scientific information. predicting slr impacts, such as shoreline changes, wetland losses, and other ecosystem consequences, with a high degree of confidence and place-based accuracy is still limited, although the general direction of change is well understood. other effects of climate change add to the difficulty of providing place-specific, accurate, and reliable information. this lack of reliable information and forecasts has led to the general call for an adaptive approach to managing and reducing climate change-related risks (25, 137). such an adaptive risk management approach typically entails a careful risk identification; b vulnerability assessment and evaluation; c systematic development and assessment of adaptation strategies; d iterative decision making combined with deliberate learning; e decisions with long time horizons that maximize flexibility, enhance robustness, and ensure durability; and f a portfolio of approaches rather than single technological fixes or market mechanisms (25). frequently, adaptive decision making for an uncertain future also involves investments in no regrets and "low-hanging fruit" options that are beneficial to society and the environment regardless of future climate change but are useful for reducing climate risks, relatively easy to implement, and may not cost much. in addition, many communities have begun the adaptation process by building their adaptive capacity through developing a better understanding of the problem, educating and building awareness among stakeholders, establishing collaborative ties with scientists and various levels of government, improving data sharing and communication, or developing funding mechanisms (160). to improve the scientific basis for iterative decision making, predictive models can be used to forecast where erosion hazards are highest. existing models that forecast shoreline response to slr include geometric models, such as the brunn rule, empirical models based on historical water level data, or more simply extrapolation of historic shoreline change rates. these methods provide deterministic predictions, but they often do not account for the potential acceleration of trends, the spatial and temporal variability of coastal processes, or the fact that erosion is episodic and does not necessarily respond immediately to forcing. furthermore, the response may depend on the influence of previous events. the use of semiquantitative geomorphic models to predict coastal change (168) offers promise as
how much is the quality crucial to climate modell?
the quality of the lateral boundary conditions is crucial to the regional climate model
in which period was the east-west gradient weak?
during the period january to april the east-west gradient is too weak indicating a too weak meridional circulation in the scandinavian region
the quality of the lateral boundary conditions is crucial to the regional climate model. in the case of downscaling results from echam4/opyc3 over europe, raisanen et al (2003) investigated its impacts on the control climate as simulated in rcao which builds on the previous atmospheric model version rca2 (jones et al ., 2004). they found that many aspects of the climate were captured in those simulations indicating that the global model did perform well in the region. nevertheless, some biases were reported. for instance, biases in the sea-level pressure during much of the year indicated too cyclonic time-mean conditions in the middle of the domain. this is illustrated here in figure 27 showing the average seasonal cycle of the north-south pressure gradient between portugal and iceland and the east-west pressure gradient between the faeroe islands and aland in the baltic sea. it is clearly seen that in the winter months (here november to february) the north-south pressure gradient is stronger in rca3echam4 as compared to rca3era indicating a too strong zonality in echam4. during the period january to april the east-west gradient is too weak indicating a too weak meridional circulation in the scandinavian region. raisanen et al (2003) also found that rcao simulated, in general, too cloudy and rainy conditions in northern europe while the climate in southernmost europe was too cold. in this section, we look into some more aspects of the control climate in echam4 and investigate if the new model version rca3 offers any improvements over rcao given the same boundary conditions. n-s gradient (portugal-iceland) e-w gradient (lerwick aland)
Which two coasts have dramatically different thermal conditions?
a physical example in both space and time of environments differing in variance is given in figure 2 which illustrates the dramatically different thermal conditions of the atlantic coasts of north america and europe, environments that share a number of common species including barnacles, mussels, and algae
Which coast has a continental climate with high within-year variation in sea surface temperature (SST)?
the western atlantic margin (north american coast) has a continental climate with high within-year variation in sea surface temperature (sst
Which coast has an oceanic climate with low within-year SST variation?
the eastern atlantic margin (european coast) has an oceanic climate with low within-year sst variation
a physical example in both space and time of environments differing in variance is given in figure 2 which illustrates the dramatically different thermal conditions of the atlantic coasts of north america and europe, environments that share a number of common species including barnacles, mussels, and algae. the western atlantic margin (north american coast) has a continental climate with high within-year variation in sea surface temperature (sst), and the eastern atlantic margin (european coast) has an oceanic climate with low within-year sst variation (van den hoek 1982; jenkins et al. 2008). this can be seen most easily in the maps of annual standard deviations of sst on the two sides of the atlantic. most of the coast of europe has an annual standard deviation of 2 to 4 deg c, whereas the north american atlantic coast has a standard
Are women able to make decisions regarding agricultural activites?
women have a high share of agricultural activities but only little decision-making power or control over inputs and outputs
What happens when women own their own farms?
women who manage their own farms still have to ask the men to mediate in ensuring water for their plots, fulfilling labour obligations, and especially in representing them in meetings. this leads to high transaction costs
What are men responsible for in agriculture?
men are responsible for irrigation and women are usually involved in a very labour-intensive, low-emission subsistence agriculture
a general discussion on agriculture suggests that in many poor societies and poor strata of society, women have a high share of agricultural activities but only little decision-making power or control over inputs and outputs. while both women and men would prefer labour-saving mechanized agriculture, men are responsible for irrigation and women are usually involved in a very labour-intensive, low-emission subsistence agriculture. in societies where irrigation is important, men are generally vested with water rights, participate in formal and informal decision-making at field canal level and at the higher tiers, and are exclusively the ones to invest and own their private equipment. thus women are not seen as directly needing irrigation water and are only marginal stakeholders in irrigation. often women who manage their own farms still have to ask the men to mediate in ensuring water for their plots, fulfilling labour obligations, and especially in representing them in meetings. this leads to high transaction costs. irrigation intervention in the past even further weakened women's economic resource base as irrigation agencies have been the strongest adherents and promoters of the norm that irrigation water should only serve men's businesses. only recently, some development agencies corrected earlier mistakes in this respect41. in southeast asia, it is only through common property that women have had some sort of access to water resources. women's ability to fall back on such common resources has been gradually eroded as the availability of these resources, especially in rural communities, has rapidly declined as a result of their appropriation by the state42.
sÃ£o dois  tipos de rocha?
two types of late archean rock fms. have often been interpreted as indicating cyanobacterial activity: stromatolites and bifs
O que sao grandes recifes  de   estromatÃ³litos?
argued that large stromatolite reefs indicate the presence of cyanobacteria and therefore a locally aerobic environment, but large reefs also can form under anaerobic conditions
o que sÃ£o oceanos  oceanos Arqueano e PaleoproterozÃ³ico?
in addition, the archean and paleoproterozoic oceans were likely more supersaturated with respect to calcite and aragonite than the modern oceans (62), which would have facilitated the precipitation of large reefs even without biological participation. indeed, abiotic processes may have played a major role in the formation of many precambrian stromatolites (63). moreover, although the deposition of ferric iron in bifs has traditionally been taken to imply the presence of free o2 (40, 64, 65), bifs also could have formed in a o2-free environment, either by photooxidation (66) or by fe(ii)-oxidizing phototrophic bacteria (67, 68
two types of late archean rock fms. have often been interpreted as indicating cyanobacterial activity: stromatolites and bifs. des marais (7) argued that large stromatolite reefs indicate the presence of cyanobacteria and therefore a locally aerobic environment, but large reefs also can form under anaerobic conditions. populations of anaerobic methane oxidizers, for instance, have built massive reefs at methane seeps in the black sea (61). in addition, the archean and paleoproterozoic oceans were likely more supersaturated with respect to calcite and aragonite than the modern oceans (62), which would have facilitated the precipitation of large reefs even without biological participation. indeed, abiotic processes may have played a major role in the formation of many precambrian stromatolites (63). moreover, although the deposition of ferric iron in bifs has traditionally been taken to imply the presence of free o2 (40, 64, 65), bifs also could have formed in a o2-free environment, either by photooxidation (66) or by fe(ii)-oxidizing phototrophic bacteria (67, 68).
What is the most useful conservation?
the most useful conservation response is to enlarge and link protected areas to support range shifts by plants and animals. to prioritize land for reserves and linkages, some scientists attempt to chain together four highly uncertain models (emission scenarios, global air-ocean circulation, regional circulation, and biotic response). this approach has high risk of error propagation and compounding and produces outputs at a coarser scale than conservation decisions. instead, we advocate identifying land facets - recurring landscape units with uniform topographic and soil attributes - and designing reserves and linkages for diversity and interspersion of these units
What is a recovering landscape?
the most useful conservation response is to enlarge and link protected areas to support range shifts by plants and animals. to prioritize land for reserves and linkages, some scientists attempt to chain together four highly uncertain models (emission scenarios, global air-ocean circulation, regional circulation, and biotic response). this approach has high risk of error propagation and compounding and produces outputs at a coarser scale than conservation decisions. instead, we advocate identifying land facets - recurring landscape units with uniform topographic and soil attributes - and designing reserves and linkages for diversity and interspersion of these units
What are soil protected landscapes?
the most useful conservation response is to enlarge and link protected areas to support range shifts by plants and animals. to prioritize land for reserves and linkages, some scientists attempt to chain together four highly uncertain models (emission scenarios, global air-ocean circulation, regional circulation, and biotic response). this approach has high risk of error propagation and compounding and produces outputs at a coarser scale than conservation decisions. instead, we advocate identifying land facets - recurring landscape units with uniform topographic and soil attributes - and designing reserves and linkages for diversity and interspersion of these units
paul beier and brian brost school of forestry and merriam-powell center for environmental research, northern arizona university, flagstaff, az 96011-5018, u.s.a. paul.beier@nau.edu even under the most optimistic scenarios, during the next century human-caused climate change will threaten many wild populations and species. the most useful conservation response is to enlarge and link protected areas to support range shifts by plants and animals. to prioritize land for reserves and linkages, some scientists attempt to chain together four highly uncertain models (emission scenarios, global air-ocean circulation, regional circulation, and biotic response). this approach has high risk of error propagation and compounding and produces outputs at a coarser scale than conservation decisions. instead, we advocate identifying land facets - recurring landscape units with uniform topographic and soil attributes - and designing reserves and linkages for diversity and interspersion of these units. this coarse-filter approach would conserve the arenas of biological activity, rather than the temporary occupants of those arenas. integrative, context-sensitive variables, such as insolation and topographic wetness, are useful for defining land facets. classification procedures such as k-means or fuzzy clustering are a good way to define land facets because they can analyze millions of pixels and are insensitive to case order. in regions lacking useful soil maps, river systems or riparian plants can indicate important facets. conservation planners should set higher representation targets for rare and distinctive facets. high interspersion of land facets can promote ecological processes, evolutionary interaction, and range shift. relevant studies suggest land-facet diversity is a good surrogate for today's biodiversity, but fails to conserve some species. to minimize such failures, a reserve design based on land facets should complement, rather than replace, other approaches. designs based on land facets are not biased toward data-rich areas and can be applied where no maps of land cover exist.
what is the consensus result from different coupled atmosphere-ice- ocean climate models ?
a consensus result from different coupled atmosphere-ice- ocean climate models is that greenhouse global warming should be enhanced in the arctic (r"ais"anen, 2001
What is the statement of IPCC,2001 ?
the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc, 2001) states that the winter warming of northern high-latitude regions by the end of the century will be at least 40% greater than the global mean
What is the warming prediction for the central Arctic over the next 50 years?
the warming predicted for the central arctic is ~ 3-4*c during the next 50 yr, or more than twice the global mean
a consensus result from different coupled atmosphere-ice- ocean climate models is that greenhouse global warming should be enhanced in the arctic (r"ais"anen, 2001). the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc, 2001) states that the winter warming of northern high-latitude regions by the end of the century will be at least 40% greater than the global mean, based on a number of models and emissions scenarios, while the warming predicted for the central arctic is ~ 3-4*c during the next 50 yr, or more than twice the global mean. recent overviews of results from observational studies of atmospheric and climate-sensitive variables (e.g. sea ice, snow cover, river discharge, glaciers and permafrost) have concluded
What does calcifuge mean?
calcifuge (high ph intolerant
How many of the 25 most common species exhibited no depth or climate response?
only three of the 25 commonest species exhibited no depth or climate response
How many of the 25 most common species exhibited significant linear or second-order responses to the primary axis of microsite variation
13 of the 25 most common species exhibited significant linear or second-order responses to the primary axis of microsite variation
when analyzed individually, 13 of the 25 most common species exhibited significant linear or second-order responses to the primary axis of microsite variation (table 1). several drought-sensitive or calcifuge (high ph intolerant) species were restricted in distribution to deeper microsites, including the forbs p. erecta and plantago lanceolata and several relatively productive grass species. the suffrutescent shrubs h. nummularium and t. polytrichus were strongly limited to shallow sites of nearly bare substrate, and shallow soils were also favored by several other slow-growing forbs (e.g., s. minor and grasses (e.g., b. media ). after 15 years of altered water and temperature regimes, more than a third of these 25 species shifted their microsite affinities (table 1; significant interactions of climate treatment and microsite at the p o 0.05 level occurred in 9/25 species glms). for example, chronic summer drought effectively removed the drought sensitive species l. corniculatus from shallow soils, but the presence of deep microsites prevented widespread extinction of this species in droughted plots. other species varied in their response to winter heating depending on soil depth. for example, the shallow-rooted sedge c. panicea was particularly susceptible to heating effects in shallow soils, but scarcely affected elsewhere; conversely, p. erecta was significantly more sensitive to heating effects in the deepest soils. on a species-by-species basis, there was a wide range of responses to both soil depth and climate treatment, alone or in combination, as only three of the 25 commonest species exhibited no depth or climate response (table 1).
What makes it difficult to assess the issue of data tracking DFIs?
the lack of data tracking dfis' activities wherever they are operating
What discussions are ongoing sharing on the issues around finance tracking?
discussions between mdbs, bilateral dfis, oecd, unfccc and others to work further on harmonization and improve knowledge
What issues were raised in the meetings in 2013 and will need to be discussed further in early 2014?
categorization of multi-objective initiatives with both mitigation and adaptation co-benefits, the improvement of the accuracy and consistency of application of both the rio marker and the mdb approach and the incorporation of mdbs' flows in the dac crs
the lack of data tracking dfis' activities wherever they are operating makes it difficult to assess this issue. dfis' potential to play an even greater role in scaling up climate investments is constrained by a number of factors. these include the limited availability of financially viable, bankable projects, and the uncertain bankability of particular technologies such as prototype or start-up technologies. partner countries' unfavorable regulatory environment and policies, organizational constraints, and a shortage of human and dedicated financial resources, represent other obstacles to their more effective engagement. in addition, some dfis aim to limit their exposure to certain risks related to currency, start-up businesses, and prototype technologies (buchner et al. 2013). the lack of a fully harmonized approach to track and report climate finance across the entire spectrum of dfis, still hampers understanding about the true volume and nature of the climate finance they provide, and impedes comparability. while dfis' tracking of climate finance has significantly improved, and dfis have come a long way in collecting and sharing climate finance data, definitional issues remain, and several dfis still do not have a methodology in place. our 2012 estimates may be inflated, for example, because some box 3: dfis' climate finance tracking and reporting tracking and reporting systems have evolved substantially since the landscape 2011 landscape 2011 highlighted important deficiencies in the tracking and reporting of climate finance by dfis. notably, mdbs are now collaborating on a joint approach for tracking climate change mitigation and adaptation projects (afdb et al. 2012; idb et al. 2012)1 aiming to achieve increased accuracy in identifying those components and sub-components within all projects that are intended to deliver mitigation and adaptation co-benefits (rather than 100% or a standard fraction - frequently 50% or 40% - of the project investment costs for all projects with climate as a main or significant objective, as within the rio markers). discussions between mdbs, bilateral dfis, oecd, unfccc and others to work further on harmonization and improve knowledge sharing on the issues around climate finance tracking are on-going. recent meetings in 2013 (see e.g. oecd 2013b) have raised several issues which will need to be discussed further in early 2014 (e.g. the categorization of multi-objective initiatives with both mitigation and adaptation co-benefits, the improvement of the accuracy and consistency of application of both the rio marker and the mdb approach and the incorporation of mdbs' flows in the dac crs).
How to estimate the climate changes?
given the speed at which climates are changing, the limited resources available for mitigating negative effects of climate change in natural ecosystems, and the species-specific logistical demands and knowledge required to successfully translocate individuals, very few species can be targets for agf
How many targets are focused in this study ?
we focus on three high-priority targets for such actions
given the speed at which climates are changing, the limited resources available for mitigating negative effects of climate change in natural ecosystems, and the species-specific logistical demands and knowledge required to successfully translocate individuals, very few species can be targets for agf. many life-history traits will affect the relative risks and benefits of agf. in this review, we focus on three high-priority targets for such actions: a foundation species that dominate ecosystems, have relatively large populations, and provide vital habitat and ecosystem services; b species that are already managed to produce economically important renewable resources for humans (these may also be foundation species); and c small populations at risk of extirpation.
What can private enterprises unleash?
private enterprise can potentially unleash signifi cant investment for adaptation in cities; local government must encourage local fi nancial services, insurance, and provision of appropriate supplies to encourage adaptation, but major infrastructural investment will remain the duty of the government
What has UN HABITAT held conferences about?
un habitat has held conferences to discuss global responses to climate change concerning human settlements
Why is the Netherlands particularly vulnerable?
this country has high vulnerability to climate change because of its low altitude, but also has a strong capacity to adapt to natural adversities
private enterprise can potentially unleash signifi cant investment for adaptation in cities; local government must encourage local fi nancial services, insurance, and provision of appropriate supplies to encourage adaptation, but major infrastructural investment will remain the duty of the government. the attraction of local governments into climate change adaptation investment is complementary to development of goals. although much of the policy eff orts have been made to reduce climate change, adaptation in human settlements has gained momentum in the past few years among international development organisations. un habitat has held conferences to discuss global responses to climate change concerning human settlements. iclei (local governments for sustainability) launched the cities for climate protection programme involving many cities worldwide. however, many initiatives lack suffi cient funding for implementation at a large scale and links to other related international initiatives, such as the millennium development goals. regional initiatives to cope with adaptation to climate change exist, but few yield results. the european commission has organised conferences on the theme and produced a paper indicating policy options for adaptation to climate change in europe in 2007.161 there are also un-led initiatives for small-island countries in the pacifi c region and the caribbean (some of the most vulnerable regions to climate change), such as the pacifi c island adaptation initiative and the caribbean adaptation to climate change and sea level rise, both started in 2003. in the highly urbanised south america and rapidly urbanising asia and africa, some initiatives also exist. however, most of these are in the early stages of execution and might funding for implementation in the medium and long term. national governments are still reticent to tackle the adaptation challenges of human settlements. netherlands has done a lot to advance adaptation policies. this country has high vulnerability to climate change because of its low altitude, but also has a strong capacity to adapt to natural adversities. netherlands has assessed the best adaptation strategies to cope with the consequences of climate change, mainly by implementing large infrastructure projects and making adaptations in land-use planning. however, island states such as vanuatu have started adaptation policies with a priority on evacuation of the population because they lack the resources to adapt. countries have issues engaging in climate change policies when they confl ict with their national development interests.162
Why is the regional conservation plans  often have limited taxonomic breadth ?
regional conservation plans often have limited taxonomic breadth due to the lack of distributional data on the majority of species inhabiting an ecosystem
What happens when regional conservation planshave limited taxonomic breadth ?
this increases the challenges to evaluating the effectiveness of such reserves under climate change as species' habitat migrates to nonreserved areas
What developments have recently emerged to identify reserve systems that optimize habitat quality ?
recent efforts have combined new robust habitat modeling methods for presence-only data (maxent; phillips et al ., 2006; phillips dudik, 2008) with reserve selection software adapted to process the large numbers of resultant habitat suitability surfaces (zonation; moilanen et al ., 2005; moilanen kujala, 2008) to identify reserve systems that optimize habitat quality and connectivity for many species across large regions
regional conservation plans often have limited taxonomic breadth due to the lack of distributional data on the majority of species inhabiting an ecosystem. this increases the challenges to evaluating the effectiveness of such reserves under climate change as species' habitat migrates to nonreserved areas (arau'jo et al ., 2004). recent efforts have combined new robust habitat modeling methods for presence-only data (maxent; phillips et al ., 2006; phillips dudik, 2008) with reserve selection software adapted to process the large numbers of resultant habitat suitability surfaces (zonation; moilanen et al ., 2005; moilanen kujala, 2008) to identify reserve systems that optimize habitat quality and connectivity for many species across large regions correspondence: carlos carroll, e-mail: carlos@klamathconservat ion.org
How do humans show themselves in the face of climate change?
with continuing influx of large numbers of people into coastal regions, human stresses on coastal ecosystems and resources are growing at the same time that climate variability and change and associated consequences in the marine environment are making coastal areas less secure for human habitation
What are climatic and non-climatic impulses about?
the article reviews both climatic and nonclimatic drivers of the growing stresses on coastal natural and human systems, painting a picture of the mostly harmful impacts that result and the interactive and systemic challenges coastal managers face in managing these growing risks. although adaptive responses are beginning to emerge, the adaptation challenge is enormous and requires not just incremental but also transformative changes
What are the wicked problems?
at the same time, such "wicked" problems, by definition, defy all-encompassing, definitive, and final solutions; instead, temporary best solutions will have to be sought in the context of an iterative, deliberately learning-oriented risk management framework
with continuing influx of large numbers of people into coastal regions, human stresses on coastal ecosystems and resources are growing at the same time that climate variability and change and associated consequences in the marine environment are making coastal areas less secure for human habitation. the article reviews both climatic and nonclimatic drivers of the growing stresses on coastal natural and human systems, painting a picture of the mostly harmful impacts that result and the interactive and systemic challenges coastal managers face in managing these growing risks. although adaptive responses are beginning to emerge, the adaptation challenge is enormous and requires not just incremental but also transformative changes. at the same time, such "wicked" problems, by definition, defy all-encompassing, definitive, and final solutions; instead, temporary best solutions will have to be sought in the context of an iterative, deliberately learning-oriented risk management framework.
Does modeled snow water equivalent compare well with observations?
modeled snow water equivalent (swe) compares well with observations; overestimation of swe occurs where model elevation is significantly different from true elevation
How many years of results did you use for analysis?
results of the final 15 years of the rcm run were used for analysis
How do you explain differences between model produced and observed temperatures?
differences that occur between modelproduced and observed temperatures can be explained largely by differences in the model elevation of the station and the true elevation
as an evaluation of our ability to simulate california's present climate, an additional pair of gcm and rcm cases were carried out using modern day initial and boundary conditions. ccm3 was run with climatological ssts for the a period of 18 years and results were used to drive regcm2.5 (as above). results of the final 15 years of the rcm run were used for analysis. the results compare well to observations of temperature, precipitation, and snow accumulation (figure 2). differences that occur between modelproduced and observed temperatures can be explained largely by differences in the model elevation of the station and the true elevation. modeled snow water equivalent (swe) compares well with observations; overestimation of swe occurs where model elevation is significantly different from true elevation. simulated annual precipitation values are within the range of observed interannual variability for all but 1 station (figure 2).
Who should play a fundamental role in mainstreaming forests?
the role of policy-relevant science science should play a fundamental role in mainstreaming forests into adaptation policies, as it can inform policy makers about assessing vulnerabilities, identifying response options and designing adaptation strategies
What is done with evidencefound?
evidence based on rigorous research needs to be translated into policy-relevant language and placed into the policy process
What will help with analyzing content?
a policy research framework encompassing actors and policy networks should help in analysing the content and structure of specific decision making arenas
the support and strengthening of those features of governance can be one way forward to achieving adaptive forest governance under climate change, as boyd (2008) showed for the amazonian forest. the role of policy-relevant science science should play a fundamental role in mainstreaming forests into adaptation policies, as it can inform policy makers about assessing vulnerabilities, identifying response options and designing adaptation strategies. assessment of vulnerabilities should prioritise places or sectors with the highest vulnerabilities and demonstrate how forest adaptation can contribute to reducing the vulnerability of non-forest actors. building a policy-science dialogue is essential. evidence based on rigorous research needs to be translated into policy-relevant language and placed into the policy process. however, it is well documented that policy making is not always solution oriented and evidence based. in addition, scientific research does not always fulfil quality criteria like credibility, solution orientation and, especially, timely delivery (sutcliffe and court 2006). to achieve this science-policy dialogue and design a good adaptation policy, scientists must analyse structures and paths in a specific institutional and policy context to identify feasible policies and to support successful processes of change and adaptation. an adequate approach should enable work on both key obstacles in this science-policy dialogue simultaneously-- inappropriate science and maladaptive policy processes. a policy research framework encompassing actors and policy networks should help in analysing the content and structure of specific decision making arenas. such a framework should consider biophysical and socioeconomic research activities and actions at the same time to actively inform the policy process itself (see example in box 9). identified paths should enable structural obstacles to be overcome, and identified brokers could assist in reducing institutional constraints (see box 10). science itself acts as a policy broker, and scientific networks in a specific region can make use of these opportunities to ensure that the results gained by interdisciplinary research are translated into policy.
What does landscape 2013 estimate?
landscape 2013 estimates that in 2012, annual global climate finance flows totaled usd 356-363 billion, or usd 359 billion on average
What does the The Climate Finance Flows Diagram illustrate?
the climate finance flows diagram 2013 also known as the 'spaghetti' diagram, illustrates the landscape of climate finance flows along their life cycle for the latest year available, mostly 2012
What does the chapter end with?
we end the chapter with a discussion of climate finance by geography
landscape 2013 estimates that in 2012, annual global climate finance flows totaled usd 356-363 billion, or usd 359 billion on average.10 this figure represents little change from last year's report, which identified usd 364 billion in climate finance in 2011. in general terms, private investment has slowed but a further complication is that the exact magnitude of the slowdown is obscured by the expanded sample that underpins this year's study, which captures more actors and projects, and more investments in more countries than previous reports. despite uncertainties, landscape 2013 suggests that in global terms, climate finance levels have fallen short of estimated investment needs for a further successive year, making the goal of shifting the global economy onto a below 2deg stabilization pathway more challenging. figure 1, the climate finance flows diagram 2013 also known as the 'spaghetti' diagram, illustrates the landscape of climate finance flows along their life cycle for the latest year available, mostly 2012. the width of the arrows in the diagram represents the relative size of the flows. in this chapter, we describe how climate finance breaks down along the life cycle of financial flows from sources to end uses. for each stage of global climate finance represented by the columns in figure 1 -- main actors, including sources and intermediaries; instruments; and final uses -- we highlight ranges of finance, key reasons and motivations behind finance, where the money is coming from (geographies, specific actors, etc.), where it is going (geographies, specific actors, technologies, etc.), and any issues specific to each life cycle stage. we end the chapter with a discussion of climate finance by geography.
What it is observed?
it is observed again that the difference between the percentage of businesspeople who have an optimistic vision and those who express a more pessimistic perspective regarding the growth of the business has a positive value
What happens if a  stratified random sample is used instead of a simple random sample?
if a stratified random sample is used instead of a simple random sample, the variance if a stratified random sample is used instead of a simple random sample, the variance of the mean estimator is always lower or equal
What is the cause of the gain is lower in that case?
this is caused by the fact that the variance within the strata (sectors of activity) is large, which means that in the same stratum we find businesses sufficiently heterogeneous
it is observed again that the difference between the percentage of businesspeople who have an optimistic vision and those who express a more pessimistic perspective regarding the growth of the business has a positive value. if a stratified random sample is used instead of a simple random sample, the variance if a stratified random sample is used instead of a simple random sample, the variance of the mean estimator is always lower or equal. however, in our case the gain is small. this is caused by the fact that the variance within the strata (sectors of activity) is large, which means that in the same stratum we find businesses sufficiently heterogeneous. this lack of homogeneity within a stratum lowers the precision of the estimations that are obtained by means of a stratified random sample.
What has the hemispheric asymmetry of observed temperature trends and some aspects of their regional spatial structure have been linked to in detection and attribution studies?
aerosols
What have several previous studies carried out?
inverse estimates using global and regional temperature differences to derive global sulphate aerosol forcings
What does their study find results consistent with?
the earlier analyses for twentieth century global net aerosol radiative forcing
the hemispheric asymmetry of observed temperature trends and some aspects of their regional spatial structure have been linked to aerosols in detection and attribution studies6,7,21. several previous studies have carried out inverse estimates using global and regional temperature differences to derive global sulphate aerosol forcings5,7,22. our study finds results consistent with the earlier analyses for twentieth century global net aerosol radiative forcing, and adds calculations of regional aerosol forcing during specific time intervals. combined with historical emissions, the inferred net radiative forcings are linked to reflective and absorbing aerosol changes. projected climate change patterns are thought to often be independent of the particular scenario and forcings1,2,4,23. here we show that arctic and mid-latitude climate change is in fact sensitive to the distribution of aerosols and tropospheric ozone. hence, 'pattern scaling' using the global response to global forcing is unlikely to provide realistic results for alternative shortlivedspecies emission scenarios. furthermore, many current projections that do not include black carbon and tropospheric ozone changes23 may have substantial regional biases.
What is the implication for Australian farmers?
by contrast to their north american and european counterparts, the implication for australian farmers is that their future prosperity, like their recent past, is unlikely to lie in extracting rent via the political economy
What is climate change?
admittedly many of these costs are incurred in metropolitan and regional centres rather than on farmland. however, climate change is likely to raise costs of natural disasters across the board, in rural and urban areas
by contrast to their north american and european counterparts, the implication for australian farmers is that their future prosperity, like their recent past, is unlikely to lie in extracting rent via the political economy. rather it is farmers' abilities to generate profit streams largely devoid of government assistance that will need to remain the focus of their business activity. it seems unlikely that governments will offer much climate-change related assistance to farmers, apart from natural disaster relief (see table 3) and r&d support. farmers mostly will need to be selfreliant and to adapt to climate change and its associated climatic and commodity price variability. occasionally climate change impacts in rural areas of australia will surface as national issues; mostly through natural disaster impacts of the climate variability associated with climate change. pittock (2003a), for example, points out that bush fires are likely to become more prevalent in southern australia due to climate change. he also suggests that t he frequency of other extreme events such as floods and destructive winds will increase. under current climatic conditions bushfires, floods and severe storms account for over 60 per cent of the average annual cost of natural disasters in australia (see table 3). the national average annual cost of natural disasters is over a billion dollars. admittedly many of these costs are incurred in metropolitan and regional centres rather than on farmland. however, climate change is likely to raise costs of natural disasters across the board, in rural and urban areas.
Do cities need to be adapted?
urban settlements, especially cities, need to be adapted in two ways
How many people approximately need to improve their lives?
the need to improve the lives of 2*4 billion people who rely on biomass for cooking and heating and 1*6 billion people who have no access to electricity presents a major developmental challenge in many developing countries
urban settlements, especially cities, need to be adapted in two ways. first, changing and designing settlements that contribute less to the causes of climate change (eg, building energy effi cient and green housing). second, adapting settlements to be climate resilient and able to cope with the increasing risks of climate change. the need to improve the lives of 2*4 billion people who rely on biomass for cooking and heating and 1*6 billion people who have no access to electricity presents a major developmental challenge in many developing countries.74 those without access to electricity for cooking, lighting, transport, communications, and refrigeration are exposed to adverse health risks. poor people who have access to energy currently do so in the worst way--ie, they have access to energy that is expensive, polluting, limited, and disadvantageous to women and children, both in terms of health risks and the time spent in the collection of energy fuels. reliance on unclean burning of coal and biomass fuels is a cause of much ill-health in developing countries.75 therefore, a need exists to improve access to secure, clean, reliable, aff ordable, and sustainable sources of energy that can provide essential services for a healthy, productive, and safe life, strengthening the positive relation between poverty reduction, health, energy security, and ecological sustainability. energy security is also an issue of growing concern to many governments in both developed and developing countries, and a potential source of international tension and confl ict.75
Water resources planning involves what?
water resources planning involves making assumptions about future plausible hydroclimatic conditions (for example, temperature, precipitation, and river flows
What is science not capable of?
while science is not capable of predicting the exact magnitude of the changes, there are methods to characterize the range of possible changes
This chapter focuses on what?
this chapter focuses on two types of decision processes: planning for long-term system operations and evaluations of flood risk. the instrumental record has historically been vital in planning for both norms and extremes, as it provides information on the conditions under which water resource systems may operate
water resources planning involves making assumptions about future plausible hydroclimatic conditions (for example, temperature, precipitation, and river flows). the choice of information supporting these assumptions is affected by a changing climate. while science is not capable of predicting the exact magnitude of the changes, there are methods to characterize the range of possible changes. this chapter focuses on two types of decision processes: planning for long-term system operations and evaluations of flood risk. the instrumental record has historically been vital in planning for both norms and extremes, as it provides information on the conditions under which water resource systems may operate. given a changing climate, it may be appropriate to evaluate the system response for a range of hydroclimatic variability wider than in the historical record. this can be accomplished by including paleoclimate information and stochastic methods. climate projection information can also be incorporated into planning assumptions. although a single best method has yet to be determined, incorporating climate projections generally involves surveying available climate projection information, deciding what portion to relate to planning assumptions, and conducting the intervening impact analysis on natural and social systems. these results are then related to planning assumptions about supplies, demands, and operating constraints. in many planning studies, assumptions are developed relative to a stationary reference climate (referred to later as the stationary system paradigm). under this paradigm, planning assumptions can reflect climate from either the instrumental record or from a climate projection for a fixed period in the future. alternatively, the system projection paradigm frames long-range system evaluations using planning assumptions that change over time and that are consistent with climate projections.
Under the Kyoto Protocol, which countries are called "polluters"?
under the kyoto protocol the "polluters" are countries that have agreed to targets for reducing their emissions of gases in a pre-defined time period
How are the "emissions credits" measured?
these credits are measured in units of greenhouse gases, so one ton of co2 would equal one credit
What does the acronym ODA stands for?
there have already been signs that traditional overseas development aid (oda) given by developed countries will be used to fund cdm projects
under the kyoto protocol the "polluters" are countries that have agreed to targets for reducing their emissions of gases in a pre-defined time period. the polluters are then given a number of "emissions credits" equivalent to their 1990 levels of emissions minus their reduction commitment. these credits are measured in units of greenhouse gases, so one ton of co2 would equal one credit. the credits are licenses to pollute up to the limits set by the commitment to achieve the average reduction of 5.2 percent agreed in kyoto. the countries then allocate their quota of credits on a nation-wide basis, most commonly by "grandfathering," so that the most polluting industries will receive the biggest allocation of credits.8in this system it pays to pollute. several possibilities then exist: 1. the polluter does not use its whole allowance and can either save the remaining credits for the next time period (bank them), or sell the credits to another polluter on the open market. 2. the polluter uses up its whole allowance in the allotted time period, but still pollutes more. in order to remain in compliance, spare credits must be bought from another polluter that has not used up its full allowance. 3. the polluter can invest in pollution reduction schemes in other countries or regions and in this way "earn" credits that can then be sold, or banked, or used to make up shortfalls in its original allowance. credit-earning projects that take place in a country with no reduction target (mostly in the "developing" world) come under the contentious rubric of the "clean development mechanism" (cdm). there have already been signs that traditional overseas development aid (oda) given by developed countries will be used to fund cdm projects. instead of building wells, rich countries can now plant trees to "offset" their own pollution. projects which take place in countries with reduction targets come under joint implementation (ji). for example, an energy efficiency program in poland funded by a uk company could qualify.
According to a recent Swedish study, which gender was found to live in a more sustainable way?
a recent swedish study examined the extent to which women generally live in a more sustainable way and leave a smaller ecological footprint than most men (johnsson-latham 2007
What was found with regards to women's level of car-ownership and their share of public transport use?
their level of car-ownership is lower, and their share of public transport use is higher
According to the UK's Equal Opportunities Commission, what were the four different reasons for men and women to travel or use public transport?
evidence from the uk's equal opportunities commission supports this, showing that women and men travel for different purposes. men are more likely to do so for commuting and business reasons, whereas women are more likely to use transport for shopping or taking children to school (hamilton et al 2005
to date, little attention has been paid to the ways in which gender has an affect on people's consumption and lifestyles and the impact this has on climate change. noting this gap, a recent swedish study examined the extent to which women generally live in a more sustainable way and leave a smaller ecological footprint than most men (johnsson-latham 2007). the study argued that men account for the bulk of energy use, carbon-dioxide emissions, air pollution and climate change - both among the rich and the poor. it particularly emphasised gender differentiations in transport use. for example, evidence suggests that women in industrialised countries use much less emissions-intensive modes of transport than men, their level of car-ownership is lower, and their share of public transport use is higher (johnsson-latham 2007; lambrou and piana 2006; hamilton et al 2005). in sweden, for instance, men account for 75 percent of car owners (swedish national road administration, in johnsson-latham 2007), partly because they commute more widely than women. they also travel by air more than women. by contrast, women use public transport, such as bus and rail travel, to a greater extent (ibid). evidence from the uk's equal opportunities commission supports this, showing that women and men travel for different purposes. men are more likely to do so for commuting and business reasons, whereas women are more likely to use transport for shopping or taking children to school (hamilton et al 2005). the relevance of research into attribution of carbon footprints to women and men, boys and girls is for the purposes of targeted mitigation strategies which are aimed at behaviour change - rather than attributing 'blame'. one strategy that has been proposed to promote sustainable and genderequitable transport is to boost women's participation in decision-making on community planning, traffic systems and transportation (johnsson-latham 2007). there is also a need to invest more resources in improving women's mobility through better provision of public transport like trains and buses, which cause less environmental damage and which create real options for non car drivers (ibid). however, recognition of the links between gender and transport has only recently begun to emerge in the gender and climate change literature, and there is little evidence of research into the gender dimensions of transport use in newly industrialising countries such as india and china. with transport experts in asia predicting that thousands of cities will soon have to make major new investments in modern transport systems (ibid), this research is urgently needed, alongside practical efforts to increase women's participation in decision-making on future transport systems.
What does Johnson's approach provide?
johnson's approach provides a self-consistent treatment of the heat engine of a geophysical fluid and extends closely related thermodynamical theories of hurricane dynamics emanuel 1991
What is Emmanuel's theory?
in emanuel's theory a mature hurricane is depicted as an ideal carnot engine driven by the thermal disequilibrium between the sea-surface temperature ts and the cooling temperature t0 with an efficiency 1 - t0/ts [?] 1 3
Give an example of a similar approach?
a similar approach was extended also to moist convection emanuel and bister 1996; renn`o and ingersoll 1996) for determining the the wind speed reached by the convective system for a certain rate of heat input fin from the sea, w fin(1 - t0/ts
dv r . q+-/t from which it follows that e 1 - t-/t+. johnson's approach provides a self-consistent treatment of the heat engine of a geophysical fluid and extends closely related thermodynamical theories of hurricane dynamics emanuel 1991). in emanuel's theory a mature hurricane is depicted as an ideal carnot engine driven by the thermal disequilibrium between the sea-surface temperature ts and the cooling temperature t0 with an efficiency 1 - t0/ts [?] 1 3. a similar approach was extended also to moist convection emanuel and bister 1996; renn`o and ingersoll 1996) for determining the the wind speed reached by the convective system for a certain rate of heat input fin from the sea, w fin(1 - t0/ts). such an approach has been used to study large scale, open systems like the hadley cell adams and renn`o 2005) and the monsoonal circulation johnson 1989).
What do water resource managers do? make decisions in the face of uncertainty associated with varying scales of space and time
water resource managers make decisions in the face of uncertainty associated with varying space and time scales
Who are water resources agencies governed by? Water resources agencies are governed by various laws and regulations.
water resources agencies are governed by multiple laws and regulations
What allows a sequential decision process? It allows alternative courses of action
a sequential decision process allows alternative courses of action, given different possible future conditions, and can be changed as new information becomes available
water resource managers make decisions in the face of uncertainty associated with varying space and time scales, and they make assumptions about supplies, demands, weather, climate, and operational constraints at those scales. water resources agencies are governed by multiple laws and regulations. several studies have concluded that current watermanagement planning regulations are flexible enough to accommodate planning for climate change. however, current planning approaches have generally assumed that future climate conditions will be similar to the historical record--an assumption that may be suspect if climate is changing. a robust decision criterion supports selection of plans that will perform well over a wide range of possible future scenarios, although uncertainties will remain no matter how future scenarios are generated. a sequential decision process allows alternative courses of action, given different possible future conditions, and can be changed as new information becomes available. these approaches are not mutually incompatible and can be used in conjunction with current water-management planning methods that primarily employ cost-benefit analysis and sensitivity analysis. incorporation of adaptive management can build in flexibility and reevaluation of decisions that evolve over time in response to new information. the use of multiple scenarios in the context of robust/adaptive planning will enhance decisionmaking, particularly if the scenarios span a wide range of possible outcomes.
What was the general conclusion of this research project?
our analysis provides solid evidence that soil fauna promote litter decomposition rates at global and biome scales
Does the nature of confounding factors of coarse litterbags contribute significantly to the outcomes of soil fauna effects on litter decomposition?
we can also argue that confounding factors found in coarse litterbags, such as leaching (anderson 1973), and in fine litterbags, such as microclimatic alteration (irmler 2000), do not determine the general outcome of soil fauna effects on litter decomposition. even if we cannot disentangle the contribution of soil fauna to mass loss as a consequence of litter fragmentation (petersen luxton 1982) or the stimulation of microbial biomass (seastedt 1984), our results indicate that the positive effect of soil fauna on decomposition is robust across different soil trophic groups excluded by either body size or biocide sensitivity
Did the mass loss of litter depend more on the presence of soil fauna or the properties of litter bags?
soil fauna exclusion decreased mass loss independently of the exclusion technique (physical vs. chemical) and the mesh size of the litterbags
our analysis provides solid evidence that soil fauna promote litter decomposition rates at global and biome scales. even though some heterogeneity was found among regions, the seven biomes evaluated showed a consistent positive effect of soil fauna on litter mass loss, indicating prevalent globaland regional-scale patterns. the 95% confidence intervals only overlapped zero in the coniferous forest, but this result was probably influenced by the small sample size found in this biome. differences found in the magnitude of the soil fauna effects between biomes support previous findings (wall et al. 2008), with higher effects in the temperate humid grasslands and tropical wet forests and weaker effects in biomes such as coniferous forests and cold or dry systems, where biological activity is more constrained by temperature and/or moisture. soil fauna exclusion decreased mass loss independently of the exclusion technique (physical vs. chemical) and the mesh size of the litterbags. this result allows for an overall comparison between studies using different exclusion techniques, which is contrary to the pattern found by kampichler bruckner (2009). we can also argue that confounding factors found in coarse litterbags, such as leaching (anderson 1973), and in fine litterbags, such as microclimatic alteration (irmler 2000), do not determine the general outcome of soil fauna effects on litter decomposition. even if we cannot disentangle the contribution of soil fauna to mass loss as a consequence of litter fragmentation (petersen luxton 1982) or the stimulation of microbial biomass (seastedt 1984), our results indicate that the positive effect of soil fauna on decomposition is robust across different soil trophic groups excluded by either body size or biocide sensitivity. however, the variability of mesh sizes used prevented us to elucidate which soil fauna group contributed the most to the pattern found, an issue that deserves further attention by future studies.
Which continent has become a particularly strong source of black carbon in the past decade?
in particular, in recent decades, asia has become a particularly strong source of black carbon
tropospheric aerosols are an important component of the present day climate system. these submicron particles from both natural and anthropogenic sources scatter and absorb solar radiation and, in the case of dust, absorb and emit long wave terrestrial radiation. the inclusion of tropospheric aerosols in simulations of radiative transfer through the atmosphere has been shown to be necessary to bring atmospheric climate models and models of radiative transfer into agreement with satellite data (haywood et al. 2000). in addition, there have undoubtedly been large changes in both the magnitude and spatial distribution of the atmospheric loading of aerosols due to changes in fossil fuel burning and other practices during the industrialisation of the globe. in particular, in recent decades, asia has become a particularly strong source of black carbon, which forms the major absorbing component of aerosols, while the sources from western europe and the usa have decreased due to regulation of emissions (tegen et al. 2000). despite the importance of tropospheric aerosols, our knowledge and understanding of their properties and their interactions with the climate are at a relatively unsophisticated level compared to our understanding of the well-mixed greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (ipcc, 2001). this is partly due to the complexity of tropospheric aerosols; they never occur as individual species, but rather are present in some mixture of different components. the way and proportion in which they are mixed has profound implications for the aerosol optical properties and their effect on climate (haywood and boucher, 2000). in addition, aerosols possess a lifetime on a scale of days to weeks in the troposphere
Climate Finance is a newer idea, who does it believe should be responsible for paying?
climate finance, for example, is a fundamental part of this new story, and signals a new global relationship, shaped by 'polluter-pays' rather than charity
What are two climate specific documents that list strategies, policies, and agreements that are used?
while these are beginning to be expressed in climate-specific documents like national adaptation programmes of action (napas) or nationally appropriate mitigation actions (nama
What are two characters of climate compatible development?
climate compatible development signifies a new development story - a story characterised by changing patterns of innovation, production and trade tied to climate responses and to financial, disaster, conflict and climate risks and uncertainties
climate compatible development signifies a new development story - a story characterised by changing patterns of innovation, production and trade tied to climate responses and to financial, disaster, conflict and climate risks and uncertainties at an unprecedented level. climate finance, for example, is a fundamental part of this new story, and signals a new global relationship, shaped by 'polluter-pays' rather than charity. it means: governance structures to allocate money weighted toward developing countries; resistance to the use of traditional aid rules and conditions; new lines of accountability to the united nations framework convention on climate change (unfccc), rather than to traditional 'aid givers'; and demands from developing countries for direct access to finance, without the need to work through intermediaries. it is a major test for policy makers globally, who must navigate these changes while nurturing and sustaining low emissions resilient growth and social development. there is a need for strategies that build long-term national consensus around agreed targets, and policies that are sensitive to risk and uncertainty, consistent with international agreements and politically accountable (hedger and sharma 2010; kaur 2010). while these are beginning to be expressed in climate-specific documents like national adaptation programmes of action (napas) or nationally appropriate mitigation actions (namas), their full integration into national plans and budgetary frameworks and potential coordination mechanisms is crucial, as climate compatible development needs to touch on all sectors and will include regulatory, as well as fiscal, measures. in recognising the threats and opportunities posed by climate change, climate compatible development means fusing together strategies that have, to date, tended to work in isolation (figure 1) and assessing how to advance and potentially combine such strategies is at its very core. the following sections elaborate these individual strategies and potential overlaps.
Are there weird outliers in relationship to groups?
some people believe it is unnecessary or even unhealthy to pasteurize milk--but they are weird outliers in relation to any recognizable cultural or political group
What else besides nuclear waste scare people?
nuclear wastes scare people--so why not x-rays or the radioactive wastes they generate
Does the issue divide members of the public in the United States?
european nations are fractured over gm food risks; media chatter notwithstanding, the issue does not divide members of the public in the united states (figures 16 and 17
but such issues are exceedingly rare. the number of risks on which people of differing outlooks disagree about the significance of the best available scientific evidence is miniscule in relation to the number on which they don't but easily could. nuclear wastes scare people--so why not x-rays or the radioactive wastes they generate? there once was ideological controversy about water fluoridation; no longer. some people believe it is unnecessary or even unhealthy to pasteurize milk--but they are weird outliers in relation to any recognizable cultural or political group. european nations are fractured over gm food risks; media chatter notwithstanding, the issue does not divide members of the public in the united states (figures 16 and 17). it is certainly sensible to examine the class of issues that generate polarization if one wants to understand a particular member of that class. but one will not be able to make sense of any culturally contested risk if one simply ignores the multitudes of others characterized by cultural convergence. in particular, it is impossible to draw or test inferences about the significance of the features that the
What is the common ground of two people?
the common ground of two people is the sum of their mutual beliefs about the conversation and the surrounding world
What was build by the strangers while meeting?
when strangers meet they start building up presuppositions about the background knowledge of the other, thereby mutually updating and extending their common ground
What is called bridging?
the basic mechanisms of this process--called bridging --is discussed in (clark, 1977
the basis for any spoken interaction between two or more interlocutors is common ground. the common ground of two people is the sum of their mutual beliefs about the conversation and the surrounding world. as indicated in (clark, 1996), when strangers meet they start building up presuppositions about the background knowledge of the other, thereby mutually updating and extending their common ground. consequently, many referring expressions are only meaningful in the particular context in which they are uttered. when we consider the course of interactions, it becomes clear that for virtually every contribution the context is extended with more or less related concepts. for a hearer, the process of relating new information to concepts already known is vital to the comprehension of a discourse. the basic mechanisms of this process--called bridging --is discussed in (clark, 1977). in addition to direct
What is the second key element of this global deal strategy?
it strives to develop targets and instruments of climate governance (regarding mitigation measures, carbon sinks, adaptation efforts) in a comprehensive manner
What established model does this approach build on?
environmental regime building
Since which decade have the global environmental issues described been dealt with in a compartmentalised way?
since the 1970s
from an early stage, international climate diplomacy has been focused on the creation of a comprehensive treaty with binding commitments on mitigation and adaptation funding. this global deal strategy contains five key elements: * it prescribes, in a top-down way, generally applicable policies that are based on commonly understood principles; * it strives to develop targets and instruments of climate governance (regarding mitigation measures, carbon sinks, adaptation efforts) in a comprehensive manner; * it is intended to be universal in its application, applying to all countries according to agreed principles of burden sharing; * it is universal in its negotiation and decision-making process, being based on the primacy of the un framework; and * it seeks to establish legally binding international obligations. this approach builds on an established model of environmental regime building. since the 1970s, global environmental issues have been dealt with in a compartmentalised way by negotiating issue-specific treaties and
When will climate becomes colder and sea ice expands?
as climate becomes colder and sea ice expands, deep water formation may move toward lower latitudes
What core will be used to dominated by the pacific?
we use a global set of ocean cores that is dominated by the pacific, where the deep water temperature is determined by deep water formed around the antarctic continent
Wht will be represented by the "burning embers" ?
broad-based assessments of the dangerous level of global warming, represented by the "burning embers" diagram in ipcc (2001, 2007), have suggested that major problems begin with global warming of 2-3degc relative to global temperature in year 2000
but what if the location of deep water formation changes as the climate changes? as climate becomes colder and sea ice expands, deep water formation may move toward lower latitudes. our interest is primarily in climates in the range from the holocene toward warmer climates. we use a global set of ocean cores that is dominated by the pacific, where the deep water temperature is determined by deep water formed around the antarctic continent. as the climate warms beyond the holocene, it is not likely that the location of deep water would move substantially closer to the antarctic continent than it is at present. both of these tendencies (polar temperature change amplification and ocean versus land temperature change dimunition) are present in observational data and models, and are well understood. however, deep ocean temperature change becomes less representative of global surface however, deep ocean temperature change becomes less representative of global surface temperature change as the ocean temperature approaches the freezing point of water, because the deep ocean temperature is limited by the freezing point while the global mean surface can continue to cool. observations are the most accurate way to quantify this constraint. we find that the amplitude of recent glacial-interglacial deep ocean temperature change (fig. 1c) is only about two-thirds the amplitude of global mean surface temperature change. 5. interglacial temperatures fig. 4 raises important questions. how warm were recent interglacial periods relative to fig. 4 raises important questions. how warm were recent interglacial periods relative to the holocene? do ice cores or ocean cores yield a better estimate of global temperature change during those interglacial periods? let us first remark on why these questions are important. broad-based assessments of the dangerous level of global warming, represented by the "burning embers" diagram in ipcc (2001, 2007), have suggested that major problems begin with global warming of 2-3degc relative to global temperature in year 2000. sophisticated probabilistic
What is needed from the society to to meet national and international greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction targets?
there is an urgent need to understand and enable societal engagement in mitigation. yet recent research indicates that this involvement is currently limited: although awareness of climate change is widespread, understanding and behavioral engagement are far lower
Which mitigation proposal mentioned requires the public to understand the causes and consequences of carbon emissions.
personal carbon budgets' imply a need for public understanding of the causes and consequences of carbon emissions, as well as the ability to reduce emissions
Which data was used to highlight the diverse public understandings about 'carbon'?
empirical findings from a uk survey of public engagement with climate change and carbon capability, focusing on both individual and institutional dimensions
the relevance of climate change for society seems indisputable: scientific evidence points to a significant human contribution in causing climate change, and impacts which will increasingly affect human welfare. in order to meet national and international greenhouse gas (ghg) emissions reduction targets, there is an urgent need to understand and enable societal engagement in mitigation. yet recent research indicates that this involvement is currently limited: although awareness of climate change is widespread, understanding and behavioral engagement are far lower. proposals for mitigative 'personal carbon budgets' imply a need for public understanding of the causes and consequences of carbon emissions, as well as the ability to reduce emissions. however, little has been done to consider the situated meanings of carbon and energy in everyday life and decisions. this paper builds on the concept of 'carbon capability', a term which captures the contextual meanings associated with carbon and individuals' abilities and motivations to reduce emissions. we present empirical findings from a uk survey of public engagement with climate change and carbon capability, focusing on both individual and institutional dimensions. these findings highlight the diverse public understandings about 'carbon', encompassing technical, social, and moral discourses; and provide further evidence for the environmental value--action gap in relation to adoption of low--carbon lifestyles. implications of these findings for promoting public engagement with climate change and carbon capability are discussed.
What is adaptive management inclusive and flexible in?
adaptive management is inclusive and flexible in terms of the precise goals of climate change policy and the means used to achieve those goals
What does the adaptive management approach seeks to do?
by definition, the approach seeks to apply a variety of policy treatments to a problem
Which levels of managers have different goals for climate change policy?
different managers--at the international, national, sub-national, and individual levels--have different goals when it comes to climate change policy depending on their distinct values and incentives
finally, adaptive management is inclusive and flexible in terms of the precise goals of climate change policy and the means used to achieve those goals. by definition, the approach seeks to apply a variety of policy treatments to a problem. as such, it could be used to pursue a range of policy goals in the areas of both mitigation (e.g., emissions reductions, farming practices and forestry) and adaptation (e.g., accommodating changes in temperature and precipitation patterns, planting new crops and protecting biodiversity, building seawalls to protect coastal areas from flooding). this flexibility and inclusiveness is appealing from a political and practical standpoint insofar as different managers--at the international, national, sub-national, and individual levels--have different goals when it comes to climate change policy depending on their distinct values and incentives.
How long is the length of value distributions ?
value distributions from measurement series at least 200 years in length
What is associated with the European subset?
as above for global proxy data (light shades) and the european subset (dark shades
What does a square indicate?
in i median values for the different proxy archives are indicated as a square
long instrumental, gcm and proxy spectra. a - c spectra of instrumental temperature (red; a ), instrumental precipitation (blue; b and associated b -value distributions from measurement series at least 200 years in length to allow 2-100-year spectral characterizations c ). d - f as above but for gcm models at the instrumental locations. g - i as above for global proxy data (light shades) and the european subset (dark shades). in i median values for the different proxy archives are indicated as a square, mxd; circles, trw; a diamond, tree-ring d18o triangles, ice-core d18o and a downtriangle, documentary data; with filled symbols for the median from n 20 and open symbols for n 3.
which is used for the LW reference and LibRadtran is used for the SW reference.
aer is used for the lw reference and libradtran is used for the sw reference
which values are used for grading?
sigma values for the total cases that are used for grading
Define one sigma?
one sigma corresponds to the maximum absolute sw difference between the lbl models and libradtran added to the absolute maximum lw difference between aer and the other lbl models
chapter 3: radiation 87 table 3.6: globally and diurnally averaged fl ux differences at the pseudo-tropopause in w/m<s314>2 for radiation models compared to reference calculations. aer is used for the lw reference and libradtran is used for the sw reference. the control simulation and individual forcing cases are shown. also shown are sigma values for the total cases that are used for grading. one sigma corresponds to the maximum absolute sw difference between the lbl models and libradtran added to the absolute maximum lw difference between aer and the other lbl models. all units w/m<s314>2 control co<s314>2 ch<s314>4 n<s314>2o cfc11 cfc12 strat o<s314>3
What does rhizosphere bacteria do to plants?
affect the plant growth
What does the long-lived natural laboratory 'EC' facilitate?
the generation of theoretical testable and predictable models of biodiversity and genome evolution on the area of plant microbe interactions
What is it likely that the bacteria isolated at the stressful SFS offer?
new opportunities for the biotechnological applications in our agro-ecological systems
background: all plants in nature harbor a diverse community of rhizosphere bacteria which can affect the plant growth. our samples are isolated from the rhizosphere of wild barley hordeum spontaneum at the evolution canyon ('ec'), israel. the bacteria which have been living in close relationship with the plant root under the stressful conditions over millennia are likely to have developed strategies to alleviate plant stress. methodology/principal findings: we studied distribution of culturable bacteria in the rhizosphere of h. spontaneum and characterized the bacterial 1-aminocyclopropane-1-carboxylate deaminase (accd) production, biofilm production, phosphorus solubilization and halophilic behavior. we have shown that the h. spontaneum rhizosphere at the stressful south facing slope (sfs) harbors significantly higher population of accd producing biofilm forming phosphorus solubilizing osmotic stress tolerant bacteria. conclusions/significance: the long-lived natural laboratory 'ec' facilitates the generation of theoretical testable and predictable models of biodiversity and genome evolution on the area of plant microbe interactions. it is likely that the bacteria isolated at the stressful sfs offer new opportunities for the biotechnological applications in our agro-ecological systems.
What are the positive effects of prescribed burning ?
the positive effect of prescribed burning on reducing the progression of wildfires in several ecosystems including pine forests of florida,[158,159]californian conifer forests,[161,162]california chaparral,[162]and eucalypt forest in southeastern australia and southwestern australia
Which model was used in determining the importance of suppression and prescribed burning ?
a model of vegetation dynamics and fire spread was used to determine the importance of suppression and prescribed burning
How does prescribed burning effect carbon-emission ?
another recent modeling study suggests that prescribed burns reduce the occurrence of severe wildfires that remove carbon-sequestering large trees in addition to the understory and thus reduce the overall carbon emissions.[165
however, a number case studies point to the positive effect of prescribed burning on reducing the progression of wildfires in several ecosystems including pine forests of florida,[158,159]californian conifer forests,[161,162]california chaparral,[162]and eucalypt forest in southeastern australia and southwestern australia.[163]a model of vegetation dynamics and fire spread was used to determine the importance of suppression and prescribed burning on wildfire size in mediterranean ecosystems and found that area burned was similar in the two fire management regimes, although the suppression of fires resulted in the dominance of large fires.[164]another recent modeling study suggests that prescribed burns reduce the occurrence of severe wildfires that remove carbon-sequestering large trees in addition to the understory and thus reduce the overall carbon emissions.[165]
Is that industrial wastewater affect or render biological treatment unfeasible?
toxicity certain industrial wastewaters have toxic or inhibitory constituents that can affect or render biological treatment unfeasible
What are the main options presents in the Fig 2.18?
figure 2.18 presents the main options for the treatment and discharge of industrial effluents
What are the possible reasons for wastewater industrial management?
possible reasons for this alternative would be economy of scale, dilution of undesirable constituents, revenue for the sanitation company for transporting and treating the industrial wastewater, simplification for the industries
toxicity certain industrial wastewaters have toxic or inhibitory constituents that can affect or render biological treatment unfeasible. figure 2.18 presents the main options for the treatment and discharge of industrial effluents. the integration of industrial wastewater with domestic sewage in the public sewerage system, for subsequent combined treatment in a wwtp, may be an interesting alternative. possible reasons for this alternative would be economy of scale, dilution of undesirable constituents, revenue for the sanitation company for transporting and treating the industrial wastewater, simplification for the industries. however, for this practice to be effective, it is necessary that previous removal from the industrial effluent is practised for the constituents that may pose one or more of the following problems:
What is used in everday language?
hope is widely used in every day language, but as examined here is most closely associated with the theory and research of positive psychologist c. rick snyder
How is Hope veiwed?
the agency component of hope can be viewed as being the will to accomplish a specific task or goal (snyder et al., 1996
Is hope a success?
in clinical and positive psychology, hope has been clearly linked to academic and athletic success (snyder, 2000, 2002), but only recently has it been analyzed in the workplace
hope is widely used in every day language, but as examined here is most closely associated with the theory and research of positive psychologist c. rick snyder. snyder and colleagues' hope theory (snyder, sympson, ybasco, borders, babyak, higgins, 1996; snyder, 2000, 2002) is widely recognized in clinical and positive psychology and has considerable research support. snyder and his colleagues have specifically defined hope as a ''positive motivational state that is based on an interactively derived sense of successful (1) agency (goal directed energy) and (2) pathways (planning to meet goals)'' (snyder et al., 1996). thus, hope can be viewed as consisting of three distinct but complementary components: agency (will-power), pathways (way-power), and goals. the agency component of hope can be viewed as being the will to accomplish a specific task or goal (snyder et al., 1996). thus, agency includes the motivation or goal-directed energy to succeed at a given task in a specific context. the pathway component is viewed as being the means to accomplish a task or goal. thus, a pathway is considered to be the way to accomplish a task or goal. together, they form the will and the way to accomplish a given task or goal. snyder and colleagues' theory and research suggest having one component by itself is not sufficient. to possess hope as defined and operationalized, one must have both the will to succeed in a given task, as well as a viable means, or way to accomplish that task. in clinical and positive psychology, hope has been clearly linked to academic and athletic success (snyder, 2000, 2002), but only recently has it been analyzed in the workplace. in preliminary research in the workplace, hope has been found to be related to chinese factory workers' supervisory rated performance (luthans, avolio, walumbwa, li, 2005), unit financial performance and employee satisfaction and retention (peterson luthans, 2003), and employee performance, satisfaction, happiness, and commitment (youssef luthans, 2007).
Why is it said that Artic fisheries are important though not of the same economic magnitude as Atlantic and Pacific coasts?
though not of the same economic magnitude as the fisheries of the atlantic and pacific coasts, arctic fisheries are important for subsistence, sport and commercial activities, as well as for conservation values
Cite examples of marine life affected by recent climate changes?
for example, there have been reports from the northwest territories of salmon capture outside of known species ranges, such as sockeye and pink salmon in sachs harbour, and coho salmon in great bear lake,(11)that may be early evidence that distributions are shifting.(13)in sachs harbour, recent warming and increased variability in spring weather have shortened the fishing season by limiting access to fishing camps, and local residents have noted changes in fish and seal availability.(51
future climate change is expected to impact many aspects of life in northern canada, including fishing practices.(2)though not of the same economic magnitude as the fisheries of the atlantic and pacific coasts, arctic fisheries are important for subsistence, sport and commercial activities, as well as for conservation values.(50)there is growing recognition that recent changes in climate are already impacting fish and marine mammals, and that these changes are, in turn, impacting subsistence activities and traditional ways of life. for example, there have been reports from the northwest territories of salmon capture outside of known species ranges, such as sockeye and pink salmon in sachs harbour, and coho salmon in great bear lake,(11)that may be early evidence that distributions are shifting.(13)in sachs harbour, recent warming and increased variability in spring weather have shortened the fishing season by limiting access to fishing camps, and local residents have noted changes in fish and seal availability.(51)
Were significant climate impacts caused by the high - latitude Kasatochi volcanic eruption that injected 1.5 Tg of SO2 into the lower stratosphere?
we conclude that a high - latitude volcanic eruption that injects 1.5 tg of so2 into the lower stratosphere is of insufficient magnitude to cause significant climate impacts
What did the authors want to do to test their hypothesis that the time of year is important in determining whether a high - latitude eruption will have climate impacts?
to test our hypothesis that the time of year is important in determining whether a high - latitude eruption will have climate impacts, we wanted to simulate volcanic eruptions of a magnitude that is known to cause a detectable climate perturbation in both model studies and observations
In the simulated volcanic eruption, what increased approximately linearly with increased atmospheric loading of SO2?
aerosol optical depth and radiative forcing both increase approximately linearly with increased atmospheric loading of so2
kravitz et al. [2010a] analyzed both the modeled and observed climate impacts of the eruption of kasatochi and determined such impacts were negligible. preliminary analysis (not pictured) shows the same results for sarychev. we conclude that a high - latitude volcanic eruption that injects 1.5 tg of so2 into the lower stratosphere is of insufficient magnitude to cause significant climate impacts. to test our hypothesis that the time of year is important in determining whether a high - latitude eruption will have climate impacts, we wanted to simulate volcanic eruptions of a magnitude that is known to cause a detectable climate perturbation in both model studies and observations. therefore, we chose to simulate a volcanic eruption that injected 5 tg of so2 into the lower stratosphere, as this was the atmospheric loading due to katmai. figure 1 shows a comparison of northern hemisphere averaged aerosol optical depth (midvisible, l 550 nm) and shortwave radiative forcing at the surface due to the sulfate aerosols for the june and august climate model simulation ensembles. as expected, aerosol optical depth and radiative forcing both increase approximately linearly with increased atmospheric loading of so2. also, aerosol optical depth drops to low levels (below 0.01) well before the spring after the eruption. figure 3. zonally averaged surface shortwave radiative forcing (w m- 2) due to sulfate aerosols for the june and august ensembles. all ensembles pictured are averages of 20 model runs. only the northern hemisphere is shown, as all values are zero in the southern hemisphere.
In what States were the trained biologists surveying Hibernacula?
new york, vermont, connecticut, and massachusetts
What methods were used in while conducting this survey?
visual counts were conducted during hibernacula visits and photographs were used to enhance survey accuracy
What 2 species were the focus of this survey?
ittle brown myotis myotis lucifugus leconte) and indiana myotis myotis sodalis miller and allen
hibernacula in the new york, vermont, connecticut, and massachusetts were surveyed by trained biologists from state natural resources departments between 1 december and 10 april in some years from 1979 to 2010 (fig. s1). visual counts were conducted during hibernacula visits and photographs were used to enhance survey accuracy. data on clustering behaviour of the two gregarious species, little brown myotis myotis lucifugus leconte) and indiana myotis myotis sodalis miller and allen), were collected in new york by state researchers in an opportunistic subset of 45 populations prior to wns detection, and during all (23) census counts beginning in 2009.
What is highlighted in this study?
the importance of management attitudes is again highlighted in this study
Write the importance of the correlation matrix?
the importance of group norms is shown in the correlation matrix itself where its relationship with violations is equivalent to the relationship between intention to violate and violations
What will be reduce the risk of accidents?
the practical implications of safety climate research are predominantly concerned with highlighting courses of action that can be followed by organisations to reduce the risk of accidents
the importance of management attitudes is again highlighted in this study. either directly, or indirectly, it influenced every variable in the model. to spell out its influence in more detail, perceptions of management attitudes has a direct effect on the shaping of a worker's own attitudes and also on group norms. it also has a direct effect on work pressures. this last connection may not appear obvious but the fact is that workers do see managers as exerting control over the quality of their work through the relative emphasis managers place on such things as quality versus production, working safe versus working quickly (the old saying: "safety works until we are busy"), and the attitude of management to errors and violations. group norms is another key variable in our model. it has a strong influence on individual attitudes, violation intentions, and actual violation. the importance of group norms is shown in the correlation matrix itself where its relationship with violations is equivalent to the relationship between intention to violate and violations. the only pathway in the model that had to be discarded was the direct link from workplace pressures to violations. the tpb suggests this link should be present but own data lead us to conclude that its influence is indirect and rather weak. a possible explanation is that work pressures was not an adequate substitute for the perceived behaviour control variable found in the tpb. in summary, the theory of planned behaviour has been helpful in refining a in summary, the theory of planned behaviour has been helpful in refining a model that can be used to explain variance in this aspect of safety behaviour. the theory does not lend itself to the analysis of errors because these are - by definition - unintentional behaviours. the tpb draws our attention to the role of subjective norms and the mediating construct of intentions, both of which are useful additions to the network of variables that interact to influence safety behaviours. the role played by management, on the other hand, is not something that was suggested by the tpb. safety climate and the theory of planned behaviour 8 rather, it was suggested by our previous research on safety climate. the practical implications of safety climate research are predominantly concerned with highlighting courses of action that can be followed by organisations to reduce the risk of accidents. because managers are viewed as the vehicle through which organisations influence the workforce, management behaviours and attitudes are usually of particular interest. our findings highlight the pervasiveness of management influence in all aspects of safety behaviours. for these reasons, it is suggested that the manner in which management variables influence safety behaviours within organisations should be of prime interest to researchers and practitioners in the immediate future. the theory of planned behaviour could be extended to include management attitudes.
Given the multitude of effects on energy expenditures discussed above, what do we calculate for the entire model?
given the multitude of effects on energy expenditures discussed above, we calculate the marginal effects of temperature and precipitation for the entire model
What does this climate sensitivity calculation take into account?
this climate sensitivity calculation takes into account the expected switching of fuels and changes in conditional consumption
What does this allow us to determine?
this allows us to determine the overall marginal sensitivity of each customer to climate
given the multitude of effects on energy expenditures discussed above, we calculate the marginal effects of temperature and precipitation for the entire model. this climate sensitivity calculation takes into account the expected switching of fuels and changes in conditional consumption. for each pipeable and non-pipeable residential customer and each commercial firm, we predict the fuel choice and conditional demand for the current climate and then we predict the new fuel choice and new conditional demand for a 1 deg c increase in temperature with a 7% increase in precipitation. this is a relatively small change in climate compared to the range of climate across the sample. the energy system is not particularly sensitive to precipitation so that most of the change is due to temperature. this allows us to determine the overall marginal sensitivity of each customer to climate. given the complexity of the linkages between the variance-covariance matrices of the climate coefficient estimates in both stages, we measure the uncertainty of our predictions using a bootstrapping method. we create 1000 data sets by drawing, with replacement, from the original data. as with our estimation procedure, we treat each observation as independent. in other words, we use the sample weights to calculate aggregate effects, but not in estimating the coefficients. for each sample drawn, we estimate the discrete-continuous dm model and use the estimated coefficients to measure the changes in expenditures associated with a marginal change in climate. 20 20 in table vii, we report the median, 5%, and 95% of the draws. with these last two measures, we construct the 90% confidence interval. in addition, we report whether the 90th, 95th, and 99th
Who have historically co-occurred throughout much of their southern California range
quino checkerspot and california gnatcatcher
Which species was susceptible to precipitation increases of 150%
the california gnatcatcher
Which species of butterfly is found only in southern California and northern Baja California?
the quino checkerspot
quino checkerspot and california gnatcatcher, which have historically co-occurred throughout much of their southern california range, displayed differences in predicted habitat responses to altered climate conditions. in comparing climatic tolerances predicted by the climate-only models for each species, the quino checkerspot was more sensitive to increasing temperature and precipitation extremes than the california gnatcatcher. while the california gnatcatcher was susceptible to precipitation increases of 150%, it was less responsive to precipitation decreases. for both species, there were substantial losses of habitat with changing climate. this is of concern for the conservation of these species, particularly because these models do not account for the loss of habitat to urbanization and conversion of land for agriculture. as a result, even less land is available than we have predicted for these species to occupy under current and future climate conditions. the quino checkerspot butterfly is found only in southern california and northern baja california,
What nis a dominant pattern?
a dominant pattern of north atlantic sst bias is the cold spot east of newfoundland and a warm bias next to the east coast of north america. this bias is associated with a poor representation of the north atlantic current as it extends northward from the gulf stream
What is a gulf stream?
a dominant pattern of north atlantic sst bias is the cold spot east of newfoundland and a warm bias next to the east coast of north america. this bias is associated with a poor representation of the north atlantic current as it extends northward from the gulf stream
What is north atlantic SST?
a dominant pattern of north atlantic sst bias is the cold spot east of newfoundland and a warm bias next to the east coast of north america. this bias is associated with a poor representation of the north atlantic current as it extends northward from the gulf stream
a dominant pattern of north atlantic sst bias is the cold spot east of newfoundland and a warm bias next to the east coast of north america. this bias is associated with a poor representation of the north atlantic current as it extends northward from the gulf stream. given the strong sst gradients in this region, a slight shift in the simulated current leads to a strong bias. there are related warm biases also found near southern greenland. in a broad sense, both cm2.1 and cm3 have cool ssts in the north atlantic, with cm2.1 cooler north of 40 8 n.
Did retention rates vary by gender, major, or condition?
retention rates were adequate, similar to those in past research, and did not vary by gender, major, or condition (see the online supplemental material
Were analyses moderated by student cohort?
few analyses were moderated by student cohort (fewer than would be expected by chance alone), so the three cohorts were combined
retention rates. retention rates were adequate, similar to those in past research, and did not vary by gender, major, or condition (see the online supplemental material). degrees of freedom vary because of missing data on some postintervention measures. combination of cohorts. few analyses were moderated by student cohort (fewer than would be expected by chance alone), so the three cohorts were combined. outliers. the results were not driven by outliers. we examined the critical three experimental conditions among women in male-dominated majors. on all primary outcomes, all scores fell within 2.30 standard deviations of the within-condition mean. race/ethnicity. no analysis was moderated by student race/ ethnicity (white vs. other), f s  2.75, p s  .10.
What causes  the  white-nose syndrome ?
white-nose syndrome usually causes aberrant behaviour of bats during hibernation, including bats prematurely staging at hibernacula entrances, failure of bats to arouse normally in response to disturbance, and diurnal and mid-winter emergence of bats
On what is based the WNS detection ?
we used the best available estimates of year of wns detection based on reports of bats emerging onto the landscape in close proximity to hibernacula, and surveys of hibernacula entrances for bat carcasses. however, sites may have been infected with g. destructans prior to detection of disease when sites were not surveyed every year
What was determined on the last results in the year of WNS detection?
we determined the sensitivity of our results to uncertainty in the year of wns detection by performing analyses with three sets of arrival years: the most likely year using the information described above, the latest year of wns detection, determined by the first year a hibernacula survey was conducted and symptoms of wns were present, and the earliest possible year of wns detection. for this last estimate a site was considered infected in a year if the distance to the presumed site of (howes cave) was less than the distance from howes cave to the furthest site known to be infected
white-nose syndrome usually causes aberrant behaviour of bats during hibernation, including bats prematurely staging at hibernacula entrances, failure of bats to arouse normally in response to disturbance, and diurnal and mid-winter emergence of bats. we used the best available estimates of year of wns detection based on reports of bats emerging onto the landscape in close proximity to hibernacula, and surveys of hibernacula entrances for bat carcasses. however, sites may have been infected with g. destructans prior to detection of disease when sites were not surveyed every year. we determined the sensitivity of our results to uncertainty in the year of wns detection by performing analyses with three sets of arrival years: the most likely year using the information described above, the latest year of wns detection, determined by the first year a hibernacula survey was conducted and symptoms of wns were present, and the earliest possible year of wns detection. for this last estimate a site was considered infected in a year if the distance to the presumed site of (howes cave) was less than the distance from howes cave to the furthest site known to be infected. results were qualitatively similar among all three sets of analyses so we present only the results for the most likely year.
Describe the recommendation of Arrow et al?
the opposition between a descriptive approach and the prescriptive approach is hard to understand when it is labeled in this way, as suggested by arrow et al. (1996). it is equally puzzling when the "ethicists"-"positivists" labels are used
PW Descriptive Approach Say two ethical arguments?
as pw write, "in the end, of course, the positivists' approach is worth nothing unless it can be defended on ethical grounds." (p. 150) so, the debate is not between ethics and something else, it is a debate within ethics. the descriptive approach invokes two ethical arguments. the first is that market rates reflect the preferences of the population, so that it is undemocratic to propose using different rates (nordhaus 2007
Say Collier protocol?
the climate economists who propose using lower rates for climate policies are imposing their views on a population that appears to care less about the future than they do. (gollier, in this issue, actually shows that risk-free market rates are lower than what ethicists propose!) this first argument is unacceptable but the reasons why it cannot be accepted are far from simpl
the opposition between a descriptive approach and the prescriptive approach is hard to understand when it is labeled in this way, as suggested by arrow et al. (1996). it is equally puzzling when the "ethicists"-"positivists" labels are used. as pw write, "in the end, of course, the positivists' approach is worth nothing unless it can be defended on ethical grounds." (p. 150) so, the debate is not between ethics and something else, it is a debate within ethics. the descriptive approach invokes two ethical arguments. the first is that market rates reflect the preferences of the population, so that it is undemocratic to propose using different rates (nordhaus 2007). the climate economists who propose using lower rates for climate policies are imposing their views on a population that appears to care less about the future than they do. (gollier, in this issue, actually shows that risk-free market rates are lower than what ethicists propose!) this first argument is unacceptable but the reasons why it cannot be accepted are far from simple.
What are the most important for the basic reproductive rate of the infectin, R0 [91-96] ?
the recent application of next-generation matrix (ngm) models to tick-borne diseases has provided some useful guidance about which demographic and epidemiological parameters are most important for the basic reproductive rate of the infection, r0 [91-96
What does the NGM approach offer?
the ngm approach offers a straightforward means of evaluating the sensitivity or elasticity of r0
What do most NGM models de-emphasize?
most ngm models de-emphasize the importance of tick and host densities
the recent application of next-generation matrix (ngm) models to tick-borne diseases has provided some useful guidance about which demographic and epidemiological parameters are most important for the basic reproductive rate of the infection, r0 [91-96]. r0, defined as the number of secondary cases caused by a single infected individual in a wholly susceptible population, is particularly useful when considering whether tick-borne diseases can successfully invade and spread. the ngm approach offers a straightforward means of evaluating the sensitivity or elasticity of r0 to changes in each of a matrix of transition probabilities representing paths through which hosts or ticks become infected. these models consistently indicate that survival from fed larva to feeding nymph is a critical for r0 for tick-borne encephalitis and lyme borreliosis [91,95]. this observation is relevant to the spread of tick-borne disease in a changing climate since all of the steps in this transition, from moulting to overwintering survival to survival while questing, are sensitive to climate conditions. also, when the phenology of ticks and the duration of infectiousness are included in the ngm of lyme disease in north america, the probability that a nymph finds a competent host is also strongly influential we suggest that a focus on those parameters with high elasticities will prove most fruitful, especially when considering alternative assumptions and hypotheses in this framework. for instance, most ngm models de-emphasize the importance of tick and host densities (but see ), but this is probably because they assume that tick-host encounters are essentially constant [91,95]. different function forms of host encounter term in epidemic models strongly alter the predictions of these models [97,98].
Did the model accurately predicted the occurrence of isolated populations?
the model accurately predicted the occurrence of isolated populations such as those in the chiricahua mountains of southeast arizona, the southernmost population of the species (inset at bottom center), and in the sweetgrass hills of montana (upper right inset), where existing populations were not included on the range map
Does the produced map correspond to the range map?
still, the map produced from the majority of votes corresponds closely with the range map
What is the prediction for northern Cascade Range of south-central British Columbia?
errors in the range map notwithstanding (fig. 6), the model predicts that the species should be abundant in much of the northern cascade range of south-central british columbia, where the contemporary distribution is limited to two small populations
rehfeldt et al.--plant-climate relationships areas of disharmony are apparent, particularly in eastern oregon, where the climate profile is predicted to occur outside of the boundaries of the range map. the model accurately predicted the occurrence of isolated populations such as those in the chiricahua mountains of southeast arizona, the southernmost population of the species (inset at bottom center), and in the sweetgrass hills of montana (upper right inset), where existing populations were not included on the range map. still, the map produced from the majority of votes corresponds closely with the range map. pinus ponderosa concurrence between model predictions, the range map (fig. 9), and data points (lower insets) can be nearly perfect. nonetheless, areas of disharmony exist, the most notable of which are in a the willamette valley of western oregon (upper left inset), where p. ponderosa is present but where the model allocates few supporting votes, and b western montana (upper right inset), where both the range map and the predictions are poorly aligned with the species' sporadic distribution. larix occidentalis despite errors of prediction that are smaller than those for the three conifers considered above (table 4), predictions are less consistent with the range map (fig. 10). errors in the range map notwithstanding (fig. 6), the model predicts that the species should be abundant in much of the northern cascade range of south-central british columbia, where the contemporary distribution is limited to two small populations. for this species and for several considered below, climates approaching that of the profile are predicted at locations far removed from the contemporary distribution (lower right inset). quercus gambelii the modeled climate profile is generally consistent with the range map (fig. 11), although the profile is predicted to occur where the species is absent, most noticeably a on the periphery of the range in northwest
What emerged from this analysis even though a strict comparison between NBM and SDGVM was not straightforward?
although a strict comparison between nbm and sdgvm was not straightforward, several interesting patterns emerge from this analysis
What were most of the studied arid zone tree species a critical component of?
most of the tree species studied here occurred in very arid zones (namib desert and nama karoo), where they are a critical component of overall species diversity
What cannot currently take into account local variation in soil depth and hydrology without more complete global soil datasets?
this reveals some potential shortcomings of dgvm for regional assessments; they cannot currently take into account local variation in soil depth and hydrology without more complete global soil datasets
although a strict comparison between nbm and sdgvm was not straightforward, several interesting patterns emerge from this analysis, even though from a species-specific and conservation perspective, we analyzed only endemic plants that contribute to the extraordinary richness of these areas. for instance, most of the tree species studied here occurred in very arid zones (namib desert and nama karoo), where they are a critical component of overall species diversity. however, as very rare and restricted, and probably very area-specific, they are not modeled by sdgvm which predicts bare-ground cover as dominant, and no tree cover. therefore, according to the sdgvm projections, trees should be excluded from this area. this reveals some potential shortcomings of dgvm for regional assessments; they cannot currently take into account local variation in soil depth and hydrology without more complete global soil datasets, and they also ignore local evolutionary processes that may result in pfts that have greater drought tolerance, for example, than a 'global average' pft. however, careful examination of the results from nbm and sdgvm show that they do provide similar
What percentage of thenet global photochemical production of tropospheric ozone is estimated to be due to biomass burning?
10-25
How is biomass burning effecting over the Atlantic?
over the atlantic the impact is enhanced by coincident increases in anthropogenic emissions of nox in relatively pristine regions
AHow is low ozone levels formed?
due to titration from emitted nox,[20,54]while ageing of plumes enables the buildup of secondary pollutants, ozone, and more oxygenated species such as secondary aerosols (sulfates, nitrates, and organics
the presence of many reactive species within biomass burning emissions means they can have a significant effect on atmospheric chemistry. the efficiency of biomass burning emissions to produce ozone depends on the dilution and their physicochemical transformation during atmospheric transport, as well as the colocation of other emission sources. about 10-25% of the net global photochemical production of tropospheric ozone is estimated to be due to biomass burning.[48,49]high ozone plumes extend over major parts of the tropical and subtropical continents during dry seasons with concentrations being three times higher than background conditions.[20,50]over the atlantic the impact is enhanced by coincident increases in anthropogenic emissions of nox in relatively pristine regions.[51,52]recirculation over the indonesian maritime continent allows smoke to accumulate and tropical tropospheric ozone to increase relative to periods without smoke.fresh fire plumes show low ozone levels due to titration from emitted nox,[20,54]while ageing of plumes enables the buildup of secondary pollutants, ozone, and more oxygenated species such as secondary aerosols (sulfates, nitrates, and organics).aged smoke particles show enhanced cloud condensation activity due to coating by water soluble material; condensation of voc with multiple functional groups emitted during burning appears to be a major
Other than climate variability, what are the indicative evidence in the delta region conflicts?
we interpret this finding as indicative evidence that land-use conflicts in the delta region are shaped by political and economic contexts (e.g. confidence in the judicial system, economic opportunities, and learning) rather than climate variability
Where is the conflicts of land-use happened?
mopti region in mali - a heartland of the sahel
What are important drivers of intercommunal conflicts in the Sahel?
water scarcity and rapid environmental change are important drivers of intercommunal conflicts in the sahel
this article has investigated the roles of climate variability and environmental conditions on land-use conflicts in the mopti region in mali - a heartland of the sahel. to this end, we collected new data on land-use disputes in the regional court of appeal, which we compared to contemporaneous climate statistics. moreover, we carried out a detailed case study of one of the conflicts in the delta, to obtain a more thorough understanding of important factors contributing to the outbreak of the dispute. these complementary analyses provide little evidence supporting the notion that water scarcity and rapid environmental change are important drivers of intercommunal conflicts in the sahel. the statistical comparison of temporal variations in rainfall and variations in land-use disputes in the court of appeal revealed little overlap in trends. tellingly, civil cases, which presumably are less sensitive to climatic variations, followed the same fluctuating pattern as land disputes. we interpret this finding as indicative evidence that land-use conflicts in the delta region are shaped by political and economic contexts (e.g. confidence in the judicial system, economic opportunities, and learning) rather than climate variability.
What may moderate the relationship between job demands and psychological health problems?
psc
According to COR theory, individuals have a tendency to conserve and accumulate on what?
valuable resources, such as work conditions, job rewards, and personal energy
additionally, psc may moderate the relationship between job demands and psychological health problems. psc will enable employees to cope with their job demands, for example, by providing relevant supportive practices such as the opportunity to debrief after emotionally challenging experiences. conservation of resources (cor) theory in particular helps elucidate the process of moderation (hobfoll, 1989, 2001). according to cor theory, individuals have a tendency to conserve and accumulate valuable resources, such as work conditions, job rewards, and personal energy. resources are linked together and create 'resource caravans' (salanova, schaufeli, xanthopoulou, bakker, 2010). cor-theory predicts that personal resources such as beliefs in capability may increase, leading to outcomes like better coping (salanova et al. 2010). in high psc contexts, therefore, increased coping capacity may reduce the impact of demands.
What is the main innovative purpose of the research?
the main innovative purpose of the research was to evaluate the applicability of an anaerobic process (anaerobic filter) used for the polishing of domestic sewage, whose previous treatment stage is also performed by another anaerobic process (uasb reactor
What is the typical BOD value of the final effluent if anaerobic filters are used after UASB reactors?
nowadays, anaerobic filters after uasb reactors are being used to produce a final effluent with bod lower than 60 mg/l
What are the advantages of using combined anaerobic processes in treatment plants?
this association of anaerobic processes contributes greatly to the reduction of power and operational costs of the treatment plant
the main innovative purpose of the research was to evaluate the applicability of an anaerobic process (anaerobic filter) used for the polishing of domestic sewage, whose previous treatment stage is also performed by another anaerobic process (uasb reactor). this association of anaerobic processes contributes greatly to the reduction of power and operational costs of the treatment plant. until recently, the anaerobic filters were limited to small populations, usually treating effluents from septic tanks. nowadays, anaerobic filters after uasb reactors are being used to produce a final effluent with bod lower than 60 mg/l, even in cities with population larger than 50,000 inhabitants. the complementary organic matter removal achieved in the second anaerobic reactor (anaerobic filter) occurs by:
What are mountain pine beetle outbreaks influenced by?
mountain pine beetle outbreak development is influenced by host susceptibility, climatic suitability for mountain pine beetle, and forest management practices
What can have a profound influence on host susceptibility?
past disturbances, including harvesting, wildfire, wildfire suppression, and previous mountain pine beetle outbreaks, can have a profound influence on host susceptibility
What has been noted in the lodgepole pine forests of western Canada?
in the lodgepole pine forests of western canada, the disturbance regime is changing on a vast scale from an unmanaged state influenced by various natural disturbances to a managed condition in which natural disturbances are suppressed where possible, and forest harvesting is the predominant disturbance
mountain pine beetle outbreak development is influenced by host susceptibility, climatic suitability for mountain pine beetle, and forest management practices. host susceptibility may in turn be influenced by the age, species composition, and contiguity of mature stands in the landscape, and by the occurrence of past outbreaks that degrade habitat quality for mountain pine beetle. past disturbances, including harvesting, wildfire, wildfire suppression, and previous mountain pine beetle outbreaks, can have a profound influence on host susceptibility. thus, where host susceptibility is age/size-dependent and trees are long-lived, and because it takes a number of years for smaller trees surviving an outbreak to reach a susceptible size, landscapes previously unaffected by outbreaks may be more susceptible than landscapes that have sustained relatively recent attacks. in the lodgepole pine forests of western canada, the disturbance regime is changing on a vast scale from an unmanaged state influenced by various natural disturbances to a managed condition in which natural disturbances are suppressed where possible, and forest harvesting is the predominant disturbance. due to a reduction in the disturbance rate, a large cohort of lodgepole pine has reached an age/size susceptible to mountain pine beetle. this, combined with an increasingly favourable climate allowing for range expansion into previously unaffected forests, has created ideal conditions for an unprecedented mountain pine beetle outbreak. however, this susceptible pine cohort is a transitional phenomena it is unlikely that such a large amount of susceptible pine will be seen again. safranyik (2004) suggested that, in the long-term, our focus should be on management of lodgepole pine, not on management of the mountain pine beetle. however, while management strategies should consider reducing landscape-scale susceptibility, it would take decades to hundreds of years to influence forest composition and age structure over the extensive pine forests in western canada because large-scale disturbances impart an "ecological memory" to landscape patterns (peterson 2002). in the short term, a better understanding of the effect of forest dynamics and climatic variation on mountain pine beetle outbreaks will allow for management of lodgepole pine forests with regard to disturbance risk.
When and to who did James Hutton present a lecture?
in the spring of 1785, the geologist james hutton presented a lecture to the royal society of edinburgh that changed scientific inquiry into natural processes. t
Why wasn't Hutton's view accepted by his peers, natural scientists, at the time?
this view was not accepted by most natural scientists at the time because it required full acceptance of the expanse of geologic time and rejection of the prevalent views of a young earth
in the spring of 1785, the geologist james hutton presented a lecture to the royal society of edinburgh that changed scientific inquiry into natural processes. the essence of his view was simple enough: the present is the key to understanding the past. hutton recognized that slow geologic processes such as erosion or uplift could produce sedimentary strata or mountain ranges. in 1795, he wrote that "we find no vestige of a beginning--no prospect of an end. not only are no powers to be employed that are not natural to the globe, no actions to be admitted of except those of which we know the principle and no extraordinary events to be alleged in order to explain a common experience ." 1 ). this view was not accepted by most natural scientists at the time because it required full acceptance of the expanse of geologic time and rejection of the prevalent views of a young earth. future generations of scientists, however, most notably charles darwin half a century later, were encouraged by this new way of thinking to interpret their observations on the basis of what they knew of modern processes. to understand how and why climates change, we have to invoke a corollary to hutton's view: the past must be used to understand the present. modern instrumental records are sufficiently long to document climate phenomena that vary at interannual time scales, such as el nin~o, but they are too short to resolve multidecadalto century-scale climate variability that we know to exist from detailed tree-ring, coral, and lake sediment records spanning the past 500 to 1000 years 2, 3 ). similarly, the socioeconomic impacts of recent el nin~o/la nin~a events are well documented 4 ), but little is known about the societal impacts of longer period climatic excursions. without knowing the full range of climatic variability at time scales of a few decades to a few millennia, it is difficult to place our understanding of modern climate variability, and its socioeconomic impacts, within the context of how earth climate actually behaves, both naturally and as a result of anthropogenic increases of greenhouse gasses 3 ).
What is positive check as per Malthus, as well as Darwin and many other ecologists and is it correct?
malthus, as well as darwin and many other ecologists, who state that ''positive checks'' occur when population growth overshoots the level of livelihood resources based on the assumption that the level of resources needed for basic livelihood is essentially constant or possibly monotonically increasing, is only partly correct 
Climate change or population growth? Which  has  more impact on livelihood resources , as per study?
however, our results show that the level of those livelihood resources (food) will, at best, increase in an oscillating, not always positive, manner because the impact of climate change, and population growth was not
What is the view of Boserup on agricultural production in the context of population pressure? Is the view fully accepted? Why?
boserup (30), claimed that population pressure would lead to the growth of agricultural production. she is correct with respect to limited scale regions and short-term timeframes if the land still has potential for intensive cultivation or for a very long-term trend concerning human history. however, such intensive cultivation could not keep pace with the needs of a growing population during periods when the climate cooled in europe and china, as can be seen in various european economic records and the evidence from this study
malthus, as well as darwin and many other ecologists, who state that ''positive checks'' occur when population growth overshoots the level of livelihood resources based on the assumption that the level of resources needed for basic livelihood is essentially constant or possibly monotonically increasing, is only partly correct (see si text ). however, our results show that the level of those livelihood resources (food) will, at best, increase in an oscillating, not always positive, manner because the impact of climate change, and population growth was not. an anti-malthusian, boserup (30), claimed that population pressure would lead to the growth of agricultural production. she is correct with respect to limited scale regions and short-term timeframes if the land still has potential for intensive cultivation or for a very long-term trend concerning human history. however, such intensive cultivation could not keep pace with the needs of a growing population during periods when the climate cooled in europe and china, as can be seen in various european economic records and the evidence from this study.
What is microeconomics based on?
in essence, the microeconomics is not based upon economic cost factors, but more narrowly on technology
What is the essence of MARKAL-type models?
the essence of markal-type models is the assumptions: the assumed costs of each of the technologies considered and the learning and technology assumptions going forward
Where is the data taken from?
stern report
in essence, the microeconomics is not based upon economic cost factors, but more narrowly on technology. an 'optimal' supply function of technologies is presented on the basis of conventional models (which go under the general name of markal), which provide a least-cost solution to the mitigation target. the essence of markal-type models is the assumptions: the assumed costs of each of the technologies considered and the learning and technology assumptions going forward. the optimal supply function is merely the transformation of the assumptions that are made about the costs of each selected technology. such estimates are obviously vulnerable to appraisal optimism, and there are numerous lobbyists with vested interests in the numbers, since these influence policy and the associated allocation of the economic rents that result. a serious analysis would focus largely on the evidence for the assumed costs. unfortunately, the stern report chapter and the supporting paper provide very little by way of guidance as to the reliability of these assumptions, and in particular do not report how past sets of assumptions have performed against out-turns. as a result, little (or indeed no) reliance should be placed upon them. strictly, on this basis, the stern report's 1 per cent on which politicians are relying is an assumed number. but even if the underlying assumptions were soundly grounded, and supported by empirical evidence, the derived supply function is essentially restricted to the 'optimal' costs of the technologies, and takes no account of the fluctuations in the costs of the technologies as market conditions vary, and assumes that the policy framework will lead to their costless deployment. it is the (least) costs of the equipment, not the cost of producing the outputs. neither turns out to be well-founded. a rapid least-cost roll-out of low-carbon technologies assumes that the manufacturing capability anticipates demand, and hence prices do not reflect imbalances between demand and supply. they are always in equilibrium. the evidence is to the contrary: for example, the prices of wind turbines have risen sharply as the dash-for-wind has been embedded in renewables policy; and now there is evidence in the sharply rising prices of new nuclear development technologies as manufacturing production lags demand. these price effects are of a significant order of magnitude--rendering the cost numbers in the stern report all but useless for the purposes of public policy design and implementation. the technology costs assume that the energy systems are optimally designed to facilitate their deployment. no account is taken in the stern report of the costs of system-wide changes to the transmission and distribution, for example, and, in the case of wind, the assumptions about availability and back-up supplies are optimistic. while these may not matter at the margin, with large-scale deployment of these technologies, they are likely to be significant. given the scale of the switch from highto low-carbon technologies implied by the overarching targets, non-marginal deployment should be taken into account.22
Why did bacteria dominate the Earth billions of years ago?
the composition of gases in the atmosphere is the product of biological processes on earth. three billion years ago the earth's atmosphere had a dramatically lower concentration of oxygen than it does today. unsurprisingly, anaerobic bacteria (i.e., bacteria that survive in the absence of oxygen) dominated the earth
Why is the sun important?
life on earth depends upon energy from the sun for its existence. the sun's energy is captured by plants, which store and convert it into chemical energy for its own growth
How are plants important for life on Earth?
the sun's energy is captured by plants, which store and convert it into chemical energy for its own growth. at the same time, animals eat plants to derive the necessary energy for their lives. through plants and animals, energy is captured, stored, converted, and deposited throughout the environment, maintaining a viable world for life and its evolutionary processes
the composition of gases in the atmosphere is the product of biological processes on earth. three billion years ago the earth's atmosphere had a dramatically lower concentration of oxygen than it does today. unsurprisingly, anaerobic bacteria (i.e., bacteria that survive in the absence of oxygen) dominated the earth. the long evolutionary history of bacteria led to numerous transformations that greatly affected the composition of gases in the atmosphere. early bacteria survived by fermentation, breaking down the sugars and chemicals existing in the surrounding environment.47some bacteria developed the ability to fix nitrogen. the early form of photosynthesis developed by bacteria used hydrogen sulfide from volcanoes as a source of hydrogen and combined it with energy from sunlight and carbon dioxide from the air to create organic compounds. at this time, oxygen was not produced in this process, given that water was not used in photosynthesis. fermenting bacteria metabolizing sugars produced methane and carbon dioxide as waste products, helping to create the conditions to hold heat within the biosphere. further evolutionary changes in bacteria led to the development of a special type of blue-green bacteria (a distant ancestor to the modern era's blue-green algae) that developed the ability to use sunlight of higher energy to split the stronger bonds of hydrogen and oxygen found in water. the hydrogen was used for building sugars, while the oxygen was released. over time, free oxygen began to accumulate in the environment. in this state, it reacted with organic matter and produced free radicals, which led to the destruction of essential biochemical compounds and carbohydrates in nature. oxygen pollution killed numerous species. the bacterial world experienced a punctuated change in evolutionary history, as blue-green bacteria developed the ability to engage both in photosynthesis, producing oxygen, and in respiration, utilizing oxygen from the atmosphere. after over a billion years of evolution, life created a mixture of atmospheric gases that provided the conditions for the evolution of oxygen-breathing organisms. life on earth depends upon energy from the sun for its existence. the sun's energy is captured by plants, which store and convert it into chemical energy for its own growth. at the same time, animals eat plants to derive the necessary energy for their lives. through plants and animals, energy is captured, stored, converted, and deposited throughout the environment, maintaining a viable world for life and its evolutionary processes. fossil fuels hidden deep within the earth are the remains of past life, especially the first wave of gigantic ferns and giant trees.48
HOW DOES THE BACTERIA LOOK LIKE?
the bacteria have a more or less rigid cell wall and may or may not present flagella for locomotion
WHAT ARE THE MAIN FUNCTION OF TREATMENT SYSTEM?
the main function of a treatment system is the removal of bod, the heterotrophic bacteria are the main agents of this mechanism. in addition of playing the role of conversion of the organic matter, the bacteria have the property to agglomerate themselves in structural units such as flocs, biofilms or granules, which have important implications in wastewater treatment
HOW DOES THE REPRODUCTION PRODUCED BY?
their reproduction is principally by binary fission, besides the formation of spores and sexual reproduction (minority
the bacteria have a more or less rigid cell wall and may or may not present flagella for locomotion. their reproduction is principally by binary fission, besides the formation of spores and sexual reproduction (minority) (branco, 1976; metcalf eddy, 1991). bacteria constitute the largest and most important group in biological wastewater treatment systems. considering that the main function of a treatment system is the removal of bod, the heterotrophic bacteria are the main agents of this mechanism. in addition of playing the role of conversion of the organic matter, the bacteria have the property to agglomerate themselves in structural units such as flocs, biofilms or granules, which have important implications in wastewater treatment (see section 7.7.4). besides the removal of the carbonaceous organic matter, sewage treatment can also incorporate other objectives, which depend on specific groups of bacteria. thus, the following phenomena can take place:
Who formulated the equation?
proposed by mara (1997
What is the level of applicability of the equation?
according to him, the equation has global applicability
What is the equation used for?
the equation uses the mean temperature of the air in the coldest month
regions with cold winter and low sunshine: ls 100 to 180 kgbod5/ ha.d there are several empirical equations available on the international literature, correlating the surface loading rate ls with the temperature t. one of the equations, proposed by mara (1997), is presented below. according to him, the equation has global applicability. the equation uses the mean temperature of the air in the coldest month the reason for using the mean temperature of the air is that, in the cold period, a safe value is obtained, since the temperature of the water will be slightly higher. the selection of the cold period is because it is the most critical in the operation of the pond, in terms of the velocities of the biochemical reactions. in the design of the facultative ponds in this book, the mean temperature of the liquid in the coldest month is adopted (in order to calculate the bod removal rates). however, to estimate the surface loading rate, the safe assumption proposed by mara is adopted (that is, to consider the air temperature the same as the liquid temperature). section 13.4.b discusses the relationship between the water and the air temperature. 514 stabilisation ponds
Explain economic impacts?
the economic impacts of market-based climate policies on the different livestock sectors depend on abatement opportunities, which are embodied in their marginal abatement costs as well as the emissions intensity of their outputs, and they affect pro fi tability in the wake of a tax
Explain three livestock sectors?
together, the three livestock sectors are responsible for the abatement of 0.3 gtco2eq in scenario c, with 58% achieved by the ruminant meat sector, 18% achieved by the dairy sector, and the remaining 24% achieved by the nonruminant meat sector
Differences between in abatement possibilities and emission?
these differences in abatement possibilities and emission intensities are re fl ected in the emission changes, which can be decomposed into changes in output and changes in emissions intensity for each livestock sector
together, the three livestock sectors are responsible for the abatement of 0.3 gtco2eq in scenario c, with 58% achieved by the ruminant meat sector, 18% achieved by the dairy sector, and the remaining 24% achieved by the nonruminant meat sector. the economic impacts of market-based climate policies on the different livestock sectors depend on abatement opportunities, which are embodied in their marginal abatement costs as well as the emissions intensity of their outputs, and they affect pro fi tability in the wake of a tax. although there is great variation in emissions intensities across countries within a given sector, they are by far highest in the ruminant meat sector si appendix fig. s5 ). the capacity of sectors to abate emissions without sacri fi cing output also varies, being higher in nonruminant sectors and smaller in dairy and ruminant meat sectors si appendix fig. s6 a ). these differences in abatement possibilities and emission intensities are re fl ected in the emission changes, which can be decomposed into changes in output and changes in emissions intensity for each livestock sector: ruminant meat, dairy, and
How do environmental organizations see registries?
environmental organizations see registries as a first step toward mandatory reporting of greenhouse gases and eventually mitigation policies
What is the key question for next generation of policy analysis?
these interventions need to be parsed from others that, in the name of coalition building, entrench very weak forms of governance. addressing and overcoming this dilemma is obviously a key question for the next generation of policy analysis devoted to super wicked problems
What do policy analysts want to assess?
policy analysts would want to assess which option is more likely to induce increasing returns and positive feedbacks for a core political constituency, and which option can increase that constituency
bootlegger-baptist coalition of business and environmental groups that all seek to expand regulations across jurisdictions. in addressing climate change, such coalitions have already come together in the development of voluntary climate registries. environmental organizations see registries as a first step toward mandatory reporting of greenhouse gases and eventually mitigation policies. industry recognizes that involvement in such registries is critical for recognition of early action to be rewarded by future mitigation policies. these coalitions contain a degree of lock-in because their goal appeals, for different reasons, to the strategic self-interest of environmental groups and business interests. more importantly, however, when successful in promoting increased regulations elsewhere, such coalitions create increasing returns as coalition members continue to benefit from championing increased standards in other jurisdictions. this, in turn, fosters positive feedback processes, since newly regulated firms have reason to join the coalition, as they too have a self-interest in expanding regulations elsewhere to create a level playing field. attention to generating such coalitions for super wicked problems is arguably as, if not more, important initially than substantive policy requirements. this is because they can set in motion a series of events that lead to higher standards once the coalition is entrenched and expanded. these events are not deterministic, which justifies careful attention by policy makers to nurturing the positive feedbacks, increasing returns and self-reinforcing processes that entrench and expand the basis of support for the intervention.12the trick for those seeking to trigger such processes is to carefully assess the suite of possible interventions that together have a plausible logic for expansion of populations covered and behavioral change. these interventions need to be parsed from others that, in the name of coalition building, entrench very weak forms of governance. addressing and overcoming this dilemma is obviously a key question for the next generation of policy analysis devoted to super wicked problems. a focus on coalitions also directs analysts to expand beyond treating the debate between carbon taxes and cap-and-trade as a question primarily of efficiency and administrative simplicity, which has led many economists to favor taxes (nordhaus 2007 ). policy analysts would want to assess which option is more likely to induce increasing returns and positive feedbacks for a core political constituency, and which option can increase that constituency. the lack of attention to these dynamics has rendered carbon taxes very difficult to put in place at the national level in the united states and canada (rabe 2009b ), despite some success at the sub-state level (e.g., in british columbia and quebec in canada) and in some european countries. carbon taxes tend to create diffuse benefits and concentrated costs, which can produce stronger coalitions of opposition than support. with a few exceptions, noted below, policy makers have yet to innovate and create mechanisms that work to nurture coalitions of support. let us consider two illustrative examples that have paid attention to nurturing such support: the california cap-and-trade program and the british columbia (bc) carbon tax. in california, just prior to adopting a cap-and-trade program, which is authorized under the california global warming solutions act of 2006, the california air resources board
What was the purpose of creating an Environmental Protection Reserve Fund?
funding the development of toronto's long-term adaptation strategy, the operating budget for the toronto environment office and energy efficiency office, and for projects such as deep lake water cooling and expanding the tree canopy
How much money did the City commit from the Environmental Protection Reserve Fund for the climate and risk assessment studies?
500,000 
Why might additional funds be necessary in the future?
to identify the costs and benefits of effective adaptation strategies, and other investigative tasks recommended in this report. funds will also be needed for expanding activities and programs that reduce the impacts of extreme weather such as heat waves, intense rainfall and droughts
in january 2009, the city created an environmental protection reserve fund for the purpose of funding the development of toronto's long-term adaptation strategy, the operating budget for the toronto environment office and energy efficiency office, and for projects such as deep lake water cooling and expanding the tree canopy. for 2009, the city committed $500,000 from this fund for the climate and risk assessment studies. the parks, forestry and recreation division successfully appealed to the city for extra funds to expand the maintenance of existing trees, increase tree planting and to support research into effective ways of improving the health and growth of urban trees and increasing the tree canopy. the toronto environment office budgeted funds in 2008 for predictive computer modelling of the toronto area's climate, which will provide decision makers with better information on future severe weather scenarios. budget was also available in 2008 to obtain expert assistance in vulnerability and risk assessment. additional funds may be necessary in the future to identify the costs and benefits of effective adaptation strategies, and other investigative tasks recommended in this report. funds will also be needed for expanding activities and programs that reduce the impacts of extreme weather such as heat waves, intense rainfall and droughts (3).
What did the results guide in regards population development models?
the results guided development of population models to test the role of interspecific competition in population responses to climate variability
What was the most appropriate model forced to do?
the most appropriate model was forced with future climate scenarios to forecast barnacle population abundances to 2100
What life stages do the intertidal barnacles go through?
these intertidal barnacles have an adult sessile stage and a pelagic larval stage but show differing reproductive strategies
overall approach first, underlying patterns and processes in the barnacle data set were explored by statistical analyses and environmental drivers of abundance relevant to the biology of intertidal barnacles identified. the results guided development of population models to test the role of interspecific competition in population responses to climate variability. finally, the most appropriate model was forced with future climate scenarios to forecast barnacle population abundances to 2100. intertidal barnacle biology the restriction of populations of warm water chthamalids in the mid-intertidal by the competitively superior arctic-boreal s. balanoides on uk coasts was among the earliest experimentally verified examples of competition for space (connell 1961). these intertidal barnacles have an adult sessile stage and a pelagic larval stage but show differing reproductive strategies. individual s. balanoides produce one large brood of larvae a
What is high contextual uncertainty?
high contextual uncertainty, for instance, limits the extent to which work roles can be formalized and increases the likelihood that work roles evolve dynamically with environmental changes (katz kahn, 1978). given such environmental constraints, formalization by means of job descriptions and detailed standard operating procedures can capture only a fraction of the scope of behaviors that are necessary for employees to perform effectively. more recently, research on work role performance and proactivity has converged to address the need for role flexibility in the face of environmental uncertainty (griffin et al., 2007; wall, cordery, clegg, 2002
What constitutes proactive behaviors in the workplace?
proactive behaviors can be directed at a variety of targets, including the self, other people, and the organization (grant ashford, 2008; parker collins, 2010). the distinction between mere proficiency in a work role and more proactive forms of work performance can be extended to the field of customer service performance
What is the relationship between general service performance and customer satisfaction?
general service performance refers to service behaviors that follow formalized job descriptions and service scripts, and consist of completing core service tasks using standard service procedures. it reflects service employees' proficiency in carrying out the core parts of their service role through the conscientious application of service standards. general service performance is an important factor in influencing customer satisfaction, which is largely based on the experience of interacting with service employees and the extent to which service initiative climate, self-efficacy and pcsp 5
during the past four decades, the meaning of work role performance in organizational behavior research has undergone significant transformations, and researchers have argued that models of work role performance need to become more sensitive to features of dynamic organizational contexts (ilgen hollenbeck, 1991). high contextual uncertainty, for instance, limits the extent to which work roles can be formalized and increases the likelihood that work roles evolve dynamically with environmental changes (katz kahn, 1978). given such environmental constraints, formalization by means of job descriptions and detailed standard operating procedures can capture only a fraction of the scope of behaviors that are necessary for employees to perform effectively. more recently, research on work role performance and proactivity has converged to address the need for role flexibility in the face of environmental uncertainty (griffin et al., 2007; wall, cordery, clegg, 2002). proactivity refers to employees' ability and willingness to approach their work roles in an active, forward-thinking way, to seek opportunities for improvement and have a discernible impact on their environment (bindl parker, 2010; crant, 2000; grant ashford, 2008). proactive behaviors can be directed at a variety of targets, including the self, other people, and the organization (grant ashford, 2008; parker collins, 2010). the distinction between mere proficiency in a work role and more proactive forms of work performance can be extended to the field of customer service performance. general service performance refers to service behaviors that follow formalized job descriptions and service scripts, and consist of completing core service tasks using standard service procedures. it reflects service employees' proficiency in carrying out the core parts of their service role through the conscientious application of service standards. general service performance is an important factor in influencing customer satisfaction, which is largely based on the experience of interacting with service employees and the extent to which service initiative climate, self-efficacy and pcsp 5
Why is it important to focus on the meaning of vulnerability in climate change?
uncertainty or lack of predictability is considered a real hindrance to planning for adaptation
Answer true or false to this question: how climate variability changes is related to the meaning of vulnerability to climate change
by focusing on how climate variability might change, we are trying to better characterize what climate change means for vulnerability
by focusing on how climate variability might change, we are trying to better characterize what climate change means for vulnerability a better answer to the question "vulnerability to what" (misselhorn et al., 2010). uncertainty or lack of predictability is considered a real hindrance to planning for adaptation. however, if for example we can explore how sensitive food availability in a given location is to a range of increases in precipitation variation, or what the limits of current institutional arrangements are for dealing with the consequences of increased frequency of extreme events, we can get a clearer definition of the development problem that climate change might exacerbate. this better prepares communities and governments to develop robust adaptation strategies in spite of uncertainty about the precise impacts of climate change.
Was Australia involved in the research? if so what years?
south australia; beard (1970), western australia, supplemented by jessop (1981
Queensland includes what undescribed species and data?
species of genera, and data for gregory south supplemented by r.w. purdie (1983
distribution data were taken from: jacobs and pickard (1981), new south wales; churchill and de corona (1972), victoria; simon (1980), queensland, includes undescribed species of genera, and data for gregory south supplemented by r.w. purdie (1983); black (1978) and jessop (1979), south australia; beard (1970), western australia, supplemented by jessop (1981) and the northern territory data source; computer printout direct from n.t. herbarium, alice springs (1981), northern territory; simon (1978), tasmania. subdivisional species lists given in these sources are based on extensive, comprehensive plant collections in state and territory herbaria, and usually include both native species and those which have become naturalised since european colonization in 1788. beard's (1970)
In these formulae, what do Tj and qj stand for?
in these formulae, tj and qj stand for the the full temperature and humidity profiles of the cases, and not just their values at some particular point
How is the OLR in these formulae computed?
the olr in these formulae is computed using an offline radiation model, with temperature and humidity profiles derived from the simulations
In these formulae, what is gT?
gt gives the change in olr due to changing temperature with fixed atmospheric composition, and measures how much temperature must increase (in the absence of feedbacks) to offset a reduction in olr caused by an increase in co2
in these formulae, tj and qj stand for the the full temperature and humidity profiles of the cases, and not just their values at some particular point. gt gives the change in olr due to changing temperature with fixed atmospheric composition, and measures how much temperature must increase (in the absence of feedbacks) to offset a reduction in olr caused by an increase in co2. gw characterizes the water vapor feedback, and gco2 is the radiative forcing associated with a doubling of co2. the olr in these formulae is computed using an offline radiation model, with temperature and humidity profiles derived from the simulations. leaving aside changes in absorbed solar radiation or dynamical heat transports, maintainence of energy balance requires d olr 0, whence
In what two ways do humans contract Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS)?
the natural reservoir for the disease includes various species of rodent, such as the deer mouse and other rodents, and infection in humans occurs after inhalation of aerosolized virus or direct contact with infected rodents or their excreta
What percentage of the cases that arose in Panama in 1999 were women contracting HPS?
in panama in 1999, there were reports of an increase in the number of cases of hps, and 12 patients with suspected hps were identified; three died. the mean age of patients was 42 years (range: 26-58 years), and 58% were women
What natural weather occurrence was associated with an increase in HPS cases in Panama in 1999?
this increase in cases occurred around the same time as an increase in peri-domestic rodents, which was associated with increased rainfall and flooding in surrounding areas
hantavirus pulmonary syndrome hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (hps) is an acute zoonotic viral disease, and multiple hantaviruses have been identified in the americas; the disease was first recognized in 1993 in new mexico and arizona, usa (chin, 2000). the natural reservoir for the disease includes various species of rodent, such as the deer mouse and other rodents, and infection in humans occurs after inhalation of aerosolized virus or direct contact with infected rodents or their excreta (bayard et al ., 2000). in panama in 1999, there were reports of an increase in the number of cases of hps, and 12 patients with suspected hps were identified; three died. the mean age of patients was 42 years (range: 26-58 years), and 58% were women. this increase in cases occurred around the same time as an increase in peri-domestic rodents, which was associated with increased rainfall and flooding in surrounding areas (bayard et al ., 2000). bayard and colleagues (2000) have also suggested that an increased incidence of hps was linked with periods of above average rainfall in parts of the southwestern united states.
What tends  to decrease photorespiration and mitochondrial respiration?
elevated [c021 tends to decrease photorespiration and mitochondrial respiration
in general, respiration decreases at elevated [c021 drake et ai., 1997; curtis and wang, 1998 ), but results vary and no consistent picture has emerged norby et ai., 1999; hamilton et ai., 2001). overall, our understanding of respiration at the cellular level is incomplete, and we cannot use information at the cellular level to predict the effects of elevated [c021 on respiration of whole-trees or ecosystems (drake et ai., 1999; valentini et ai., 2000). the simultaneous impact of elevated [c021 and warming may be important because they affect the efficiency of photosynthe sis, and hence plant c balance, in contrasting ways. elevated [c021 tends to decrease photorespiration and mitochondrial respiration, but warmer temperatures generally increase these processes (long, 1991; bowes, 1993 saxe et ai., 1998; norby et ai., 1999). thus, the relative stimulation of
What does Robust decision- making comprise of?
robust decision-making comprises a variety of analytic approaches proposed to identify and assess robust strategies (lempert et al. 2006 
What would the differences in social, organisational or individual understandings lead to?
differences in how social, organisational or individual understandings of future weather and climate are constructed can therefore lead to contrasting types of adaptation decision-making, or indeed can determine whether or not adaptation occurs
What are the actions of individuals shaped on?
for individuals, and the societies they are members of, actions are shaped in part by deeply-embedded (but not static) cultural and societal norms and values
future prospects for reducing these large uncertainties remain limited for several reasons: widening uncertainties (as we gain more knowledge of how the climate system operates, some uncertainties remain irreducible), lack of objective constraints (with which to reduce the uncertainty of predictions) and the problem of model identifiability (different models can give the same prediction based on different physics). furthermore, there is much evidence that shows that climate is only one of many uncertain processes that influence society and its activities. this suggests that climate prediction should not be the central tool to guide adaptation to climate change. we therefore argue that adaptation efforts are not likely, in effect, to be limited by the lack of reliable (accurate and precise) foresight about future climate conditions. an approach focused more on robust decision-making is less likely to be constrained by epistemological limits and therefore more likely to succeed than an approach focused on optimal decision-making predicated on the predictive accuracy of climate models. robust decision-making comprises a variety of analytic approaches proposed to identify and assess robust strategies (lempert et al. 2006 ). robust strategies perform well compared to the alternatives over a wide range of assumptions about the future. in this sense, robust strategies are "insensitive" to the resolution of the uncertainties. decision makers developing such robust strategies systematically examine the performance of their adaptation strategies over a wide range of plausible futures driven by uncertainty about the future state of climate and many other economic, political and cultural factors. in this framing, they should choose a strategy that they find sufficiently robust across these alternative futures. such an approach can identify successful adaptation strategies without accurate and precise predictions of future climate. differences in how social, organisational or individual understandings of future weather and climate are constructed can therefore lead to contrasting types of adaptation decision-making, or indeed can determine whether or not adaptation occurs. these epistemological and cognitive differences will inter-play (e.g., knopman 2006 with the complex landscape of the scale and agency of adaptation decision-making and with the different goals of adaptation, as discussed previously. this inter-play will reveal--implicitly if not explicitly--different sets of values at work in the way societies adapt to climate change and make problematic the delineation of any limit to adaptation to climate change. 5 proposition 3: social and individual characteristics act as limits to adaptation behaviours at the individual and social levels are contingent upon a wide variety of factors. as argued in proposition 1, underlying values determine decisions about whether and how to adapt to climate change. for individuals, and the societies they are members of, actions are shaped in part by deeply-embedded (but not static) cultural and societal norms and values. some characteristics operate at the individual level and include beliefs, preferences, perceptions of self-efficacy and controllability. these, together with perceptions of risk, knowledge, experience, and habitual behaviour, norms and values determine what is perceived to be a limit to adaptation--at both individual and social levels in any particular society--and what is not. these limits are therefore not absolute and insurmountable but rather socially
What are dwarf novae?
dwarf novae are white dwarfs accreting matter from a nearby red dwarf companion
Can their regular outbursts be explained?
their regular outbursts are explained by a thermal-viscous instability in the accretion disc, described by the disc instability model that has since been successfully extended to other accreting systems
Why can't their regular outbursts be observed?
it is too luminous to be undergoing the observed regular outbursts
dwarf novae are white dwarfs accreting matter from a nearby red dwarf companion. their regular outbursts are explained by a thermal-viscous instability in the accretion disc, described by the disc instability model that has since been successfully extended to other accreting systems. however, the prototypical dwarf nova, ss cygni, presents a major challenge to our understanding of accretion disc theory. at the distance of 159 t 12 parsecs measured by the hubble space telescope, it is too luminous to be undergoing the observed regular outbursts. using very long baseline interferometric radio observations, we report an accurate, model-independent distance to ss cygni that places the source substantially closer at 114 t 2 parsecs. this reconciles the source behavior with our understanding of accretion disc theory in accreting compact objects.
Who plays a role in shifting heat transport towards the poles? Atimosfera only
only the atmosphere plays a role in the changes of poleward heat transport
At the beginning of the Holocene, how were the latitudinal insolation gradients? Were steeper than 0 ka from May to August
indeed, in the early holocene the latitudinal insolation gradients were steeper than at 0 ka from may to august
only the atmosphere plays a role in the changes of poleward heat transport, as the oceanic meridional heat transport does not vary significantly during our experiment. we have shown above that the seasonal evolution of the surface winds (figure 2c) is closely linked to the trends in the meridional temperature gradient (figure 2d). in the early holocene, the meridional temperature gradient was steeper than at 0 ka during july, resulting in relatively strong westerlies, but less steep during april, producing relatively weak westerly winds. in january and october, the differences compared with 0 ka conditions were smaller, but slightly negative. as expected, the meridional temperature gradients for most months are directly associated with the latitudinal insolation gradients of one to two months earlier. indeed, in the early holocene the latitudinal insolation gradients were steeper than at 0 ka from may to august (explaining the july temperature gradient), but less steep than 0 ka from september until december (in line with the october and january temperature gradients). thus, in addition to the local insolation, the distant insolation could also play a role in the holocene climate evolution at high sh latitudes. an exception is the less steep 9 ka temperature gradient in april (figure 2d), as this is related to the relatively warm southern ocean. in the early holocene, autumn insolation is reduced compared with 0 ka at all latitudes, resulting in small changes in the latitudinal gradient. however, while this insolation anomaly leads to relatively cool 9 ka conditions at mid and high latitudes, the southern ocean is relatively warm because of the long memory of the system, resulting in a relatively weaker meridional temperature gradient in the early holocene relative to preindustrial conditions. although the westerlies are related to the poleward heat transport, the simulated 9 to 0 ka changes in the strength of the westerly winds are small (i.e., between /3% for july and /4% for april), indicating that the contribution of the long distance heat transport to the holocene temperature evolution at sh high latitudes is insignificant compared with the effects of the local insolation and the memory of the system.
What is the difference between the two definitions of climate change according to the Convention vs IPCC WG I?
according to the convention, ''climate change'' is that which is due to human activity and is in addition to natural variability. the ipcc wg i, on the other hand, regards ''climate change'' as including natural variations
Who wrote about the inconsistency between the two definitions of climate change?
john zillman, an active participant in the ipcc, wrote in 1997, there is a serious inconsistency between what the ipcc working group (wg) i scientific community regard as ''climate change'' and what constitutes ''climate change'' in the language of the convention
of these two different definitions, john zillman, an active participant in the ipcc, wrote in 1997, there is a serious inconsistency between what the ipcc working group (wg) i scientific community regard as ''climate change'' and what constitutes ''climate change'' in the language of the convention - an inconsistency which cannot help but lead to confusion in the public mind on one of the threshold issues of the debate, viz whether human activities have, or have not, yet been conclusively shown to have affected global climate. according to the convention, ''climate change'' is that which is due to human activity and is in addition to natural variability. the ipcc wg i, on the other hand, regards ''climate change'' as including natural variations. thus, when the ipcc says ''climate has changed over the past century,'' it is simply saying the climate now is not the same as it was a century ago (whatever the cause) whereas the fccc listener will reasonably interpret such a statement as the scientific community affirming that human influence has changed climate over the past century zillman, 1997 ).3
what are episodes of multiyear increase/decrease in annual precipitation are considered?
excessively wet and extreme prolonged drought
What did these episodes cause during the middle to late Holocene?
cultural shifts observed from historical and archeological records
conclusions the dead sea level curve of the late holocene shows dramatic level rises and falls that are associated with average annual precipitation  0.8  and  0.8  of modern annual rainfall in the southern levant. such episodes of multiyear increase/decrease in annual precipitation are considered (in modern water resources terms) as excessively wet and extreme prolonged drought, respectively. it seems that during the middle to late holocene such episodes could have caused the cultural shifts observed from historical and archeological records. if such events recur today, given modern denser population, higher water demand, and intensive agriculture, their impact on regional societies and economies (especially for droughts) will be dramatic. the distinctly different atmospheric circulation associated with modern wettest and driest years suggest that episodes with increased frequency of eastern mediterranean cyclones migrating at lower latitudes farther to the east rather than being directed at western turkey are the direct cause of the observed level changes. these slp featured are supported by anomalous upper air patterns over the wider area of the north atlantic, northwestern europe, and western asia and especially over the middle east. in this research we connected between the geologic data (the recorder), atmospheric circulation at synoptic and global scales (the probable cause) through the analysis and understanding of the hydrology and climatology (the "transformation function" between cause and record) of a specific basin. we think that this research is therefore, evident of the potential to reconstruct recent past climates based on identifying recording hydrologic system sensitive to specific atmospheric causes; this can be achieved only when the needed expertise from the various earth sciences are combined. acknowledgments this research was supported by the israel science foundation (grant 504.99-13) and by an additional grant from the ring family foundation provided through the hebrew university multidisciplinary center for environmental research. dr. hubert (iahs) provided some of the beirut data. we thank a. cohen and on anonymous reviewer for their constructive reviews. references
In which lake are experiments carried out?
lake xeresa
Where is Lake Xeresa in relation to Valencia?
65 km south of valencia
What is the lake covered by?
the lake is completely covered by submerged macrophytes
experiments were carried out in a shallow, 0.5 ha lake, lake xeresa, located in the wetland of xeresa, 65 km south of valencia on the east spanish mediterranean coast (39  06 c/ n, 0  12 c/ w). they were part of a series of comparable experiments carried out at six european locations, collectively called the international mesocosm experiment (ime). the lake is mainly fed by groundwater and rainfall. minimum water levels occur during summer because of evaporation and water withdrawal for use in agriculture. maximum depths are reached during autumn-winter as a result of short, but intense rainfalls. the lake is completely covered by submerged macrophytes, mainly chara hispida l., together with chara vulgaris var. vulgaris l. and chara aspera deth. ex willd. and the shores are surrounded by a belt of phragmites australis (cav.) trin. ex. steud. nutrient and
T T F(W m 0.27 F(W m C (13) (13) for Te= 255K what does this relation provides?
t t f(w m 0.27 f(w m c (13) (13) for te= 255k. this relation provides a good estimate of the no-feedback contribution to the equilibrium surface temperature change, if the radiative perturbation does not appreciably alter the vertical temperature structure
Is the procedure of this relation applicable?
this procedure is applicable to solar flux, surface albedo and certain tropospheric gas perturbations (hansen et al ., 1982), but does not work as simply for co2 perturbations, because co2 cools the stratosphere (fig. 4 of hansen et al ., 1981
whether temperature increases/decreases at equilibrium?
the surface temperature increase at equilibrium was 0.29degc
t t f(w m 0.27 f(w m c (13) (13) for te= 255k. this relation provides a good estimate of the no-feedback contribution to the equilibrium surface temperature change, if the radiative perturbation does not appreciably alter the vertical temperature structure. this procedure is applicable to solar flux, surface albedo and certain tropospheric gas perturbations (hansen et al ., 1982), but does not work as simply for co2 perturbations, because co2 cools the stratosphere (fig. 4 of hansen et al ., 1981). although (13) provides a useful estimate of the (no feedback) surface temperature change resulting from a given radiative imbalance at the top of the atmosphere, it is a rough estimate because the radiation to space comes from a broad range of wavelengths and altitudes. in order to account for this spectral dependence, we used the 1-d radiative convective model for the following experiment. a flux of 1 w m-2 was arbitrarily added to the ocean surface, and the lapse rate, water vapor and other radiative constituents were kept fixed. the surface temperature increase at equilibrium was 0.29degc, implying
How were Juvenile sockeye sampled ?
juvenile sockeye were sampled by tow net
When did juvenile sockeye sampled ?
during the last week of august of every year since 1962
How many standard sites were surveyed in each year of the study ?
a total of nine standard sites were surveyed in each year of the study
juvenile sockeye were sampled by tow net (johnson 1956, burgner et al. 1969) during the last week of august of every year since 1962. in brief, the 3  3 m square net was towed at the lake surface between two boats at about 3 km/h for 5 min at each survey site. a total of nine standard sites were surveyed in each year of the study. surveys commenced about an hour after nightfall when sockeye have accomplished their nighttime migration to the surface waters (scheuerell and schindler 2003). growth data presented in this paper are arithmetic means of all juvenile sockeye caught in all tow-net stations on lake aleknagik. each year, at least 200 individuals were measured, and often more than 1000 fish were measured. because there is a small amount of variability in the date that our surveys were conducted in any given year, all estimates of sockeye size were standardized to an expected size on 1 september by assuming that fish grow about 0.3 mm/d (d. e. rogers,
How many methods are  photolysis ?
there are two methods for the calculation of photolysis rates, the online and the of fl ine (look-up table) methods
Table of photosynthesis rates?
of fl ine methods involve fi lling, for every photolysis reaction included in the model, a table of photolyis rates as functions of pressure, solar zenith angle (sza), with szas up to 100o taken into consideration, overhead ozone column, and often temperature e.g ., lary and pyle, 1991; table 2.14 ). szas larger
Number and types of physical effects example?
this method is computationally ef fi cient; however, it usually limits the number and types of physical effects that can be considered. for example, surface albedo, clouds, and aerosols are often assumed uniform e.g. chipper fi eld, 1999
there are two methods for the calculation of photolysis rates, the online and the of fl ine (look-up table) methods. of fl ine methods involve fi lling, for every photolysis reaction included in the model, a table of photolyis rates as functions of pressure, solar zenith angle (sza), with szas up to 100o taken into consideration, overhead ozone column, and often temperature e.g ., lary and pyle, 1991; table 2.14 ). szas larger than 90o are important for polar spring ozone depletion triggered by solar radiation which reaches the stratosphere earlier than the earth's surface, due to the earth's curvature. the tables are fi lled of fl ine or once at the start of a simulation. interpolation then yields the photolysis rates at any time and location of the model simulation. this method is computationally ef fi cient; however, it usually limits the number and types of physical effects that can be considered. for example, surface albedo, clouds, and aerosols are often assumed uniform e.g. chipper fi eld, 1999). if solar cycle effects are included, the photolysis tables need to be updated periodically, or the phase of the 11-year cycle needs to be among the interpolation parameters (amtrac3). by contrast, models using online photolysis schemes (cam3.5, ccsrnies, emac, e39ca, waccm) evaluate the radiative transfer equation at the time of simulation, accounting in addition for variations in cloudiness, albedo, and solar output (landgraf and crutzen, 1998; bian and prather, 2002) which are usually ignored by of fl ine photolysis methods. as noted before, ccsrnies and waccm treat photolysis and shortwave radiation consistently, whereas the other models calculate shortwave radiation and photolysis separately, possibly leading to inconsistencies. a detailed investigation of photolysis in ccmval-2 models is the subject of the photocomp study (chapter 6).
What time in U.S, history were problems revealed in economic modelling?
similar problems were revealed in modelling approaches within mainstream finance and economic following the 2007-8 crisis and subsequent great recession
What are two challenges in modelling?
challenges in modelling uncertainty and extreme events, path dependence, innovation dynamics and heterogeneity, among others
Models from what industry, can lead to advances in climate economics?
9new ideas and modelling approaches recently developed in the financial sector may also provide useful insights to climate economic modelling, given the similarities between the challenges farmer and hepburn 2014 ). it is plausible that a similar new wave of models from the financial sphere could lead to intellectual advances in climate economics
the problems noted above are not entirely specific to climate economic modelling. similar problems were revealed in modelling approaches within mainstream finance and economic following the 2007-8 crisis and subsequent great recession. challenges in modelling uncertainty and extreme events, path dependence, innovation dynamics and heterogeneity, among others, were central. for instance, following the crisis, former ecb president jean-claude trichet said, "as a policy-maker during the crisis, i found the available models of limited help. in fact, i would go further: in the face of the crisis we felt abandoned by conventional tools".9new ideas and modelling approaches recently developed in the financial sector may also provide useful insights to climate economic modelling, given the similarities between the challenges farmer and hepburn 2014 ). it is plausible that a similar new wave of models from the financial sphere could lead to intellectual advances in climate economics.
How do we derive regional lapse rates for individual temperature variables?
e derive regional lapse rates for individual temperature variables directly from surfaces of interpolated temperature data by calculating partial derivatives of climate values as they change along elevation gradients
When should lapse based elevation adjustments be used?
we recommend that lapse-rate-based elevation adjustments should always be used when temperature-based climate values are estimated at point locations of interests with a well-documented elevation value
What are some examples of species census data in ecology?
examples may be latitude, longitude, and elevation records for species census data in ecology
(sinha 1995). the improvement in monthly minimum temperatures is relatively small in terms of variance explained and mean absolute error compared to maximum temperatures (fig. 3). improvements were also generally more pronounced over the summer months. this implies weaker environmental lapse rates for minimum temperatures and winter temperatures. presumably, winter temperature inversions and cold air drainage may help moderate the minimum temperatures at higher elevations relative to those at lower elevations, resulting in weaker environmental lapse rates for those variables. we derive regional lapse rates for individual temperature variables directly from surfaces of interpolated temperature data by calculating partial derivatives of climate values as they change along elevation gradients. no weather station records are involved in the derivation of local lapse rates, and therefore our evaluation against station records represents an independent validation of improvements in statistical accuracy. we recommend that lapse-rate-based elevation adjustments should always be used when temperature-based climate values are estimated at point locations of interests with a well-documented elevation value. examples may be latitude, longitude, and elevation records for species census data in ecology. even if latitude and longitude are not recorded with high accuracy (e.g., only to the nearest minute), the lapse-rate-based elevation adjustment can still yield more accurate climate estimates for such sample points than could be accurately characterized by gridded data of any resolution.
Is the long-term global warming trend caused by natural process or human actions?
the long-term global warming trend is predominantly a forced climate change caused by increased human-made atmospheric gases
How is human actions the predominant cause of climate change?
mainly co2 increase of ''greenhouse'' gases such as co2 has little effect on incoming sunlight but makes the atmosphere more opaque at infrared wavelengths, causing infrared (heat) radiation to space to emerge from higher, colder levels, which thus reduces infrared radiation to space
what does humans produce that puts climate change where it is currently?
mainly co2 increase of ''greenhouse'' gases such as co2
temperature change in the past century (fig. 3; update of figures in includes unforced variability and forced climate change. the long-term global warming trend is predominantly a forced climate change caused by increased human-made atmospheric gases, mainly co2 increase of ''greenhouse'' gases such as co2 has little effect on incoming sunlight but makes the atmosphere more opaque at infrared wavelengths, causing infrared (heat) radiation to space to emerge from higher, colder levels, which thus reduces infrared radiation to space. the resulting planetary energy imbalance, absorbed solar energy exceeding heat emitted to space, causes earth to warm. observations, discussed below, confirm that earth is now substantially out of energy balance, so the long-term warming will continue.
What is the purpose of this review paper?
to provide a synthesis of the various hydrogeological and long-term hydrological surveys performed in sw niger over the past two decades
What has increased runoff on sandy slopes, enhancing indirect recharge through ponds and gullies?
land clearing, resulting in soil crusting
What is the primary mechanism increasing recharge after cultivation in SE Australia and in SW USA?
increased drainage below the root zone
leduc et al. 2001]. the purpose of this review paper is to provide a synthesis of the various hydrogeological and long-term hydrological surveys performed in sw niger over the past two decades. the studies show that in this region, land clearing, resulting in soil crusting has increased runoff on sandy slopes, enhancing indirect recharge through ponds and gullies. this recharge pathway differs from those reported in se australia and in sw usa, where increased drainage below the root zone is the primary mechanism increasing recharge after cultivation scanlon et al. 2007]. this study is also unique because an unusually large set of independent approaches (hydrodynamics monitoring, subsurface geophysics, environmental tracers, remote sensing and hydrological modeling) were combined to decipher the impacts of climate and land clearing on the terrestrial part of the water cycle. changes in water quantity and water quality are both estimated at a multidecadal time scale, providing valuable results that could be used for improving water resources management at the aquifer scale. this study represents, to the best of our knowledge, one of the most detailed examples of the consequences of recent land use change on water resources in semiarid africa.
What are the factors that affect bioenergy potential ?
more research is required to better understand feedbacks between management, changes in precipitation, temperature, and the magnitude of the co2 fertilization effect under field conditions, all of which have a strong effect on the bioenergy potential
What are the factors that affect magnitude of global bioenergy potentials in the year 2050  ?
our results suggest that the magnitude of global bioenergy potentials in the year 2050 is strongly affected by the need to produce feed for livestock, and that the careful consideration of biomass flows in the food system, in particular in the livestock system, is highly important in deriving realistic potentials for future bioenergy supply
What might be the magnitude of bioenergy potential on agricultural areas in 2050 ?
our results suggest that the bioenergy potential on agricultural areas in 2050 might be in the order of magnitude of 100 ej y 1based on current diet trajectories and a 'food first' approach; if 'poorer' diets are chosen, the potential may rise by up to 60
we conclude that the bioenergy potential on agricultural land in 2050 is highly sensitive to climate change as well as to changes in yields and diets. more research is required to better understand feedbacks between management, changes in precipitation, temperature, and the magnitude of the co2 fertilization effect under field conditions, all of which have a strong effect on the bioenergy potential. our results suggest that the magnitude of global bioenergy potentials in the year 2050 is strongly affected by the need to produce feed for livestock, and that the careful consideration of biomass flows in the food system, in particular in the livestock system, is highly important in deriving realistic potentials for future bioenergy supply. our results suggest that the bioenergy potential on agricultural areas in 2050 might be in the order of magnitude of 100 ej y 1based on current diet trajectories and a 'food first' approach; if 'poorer' diets are chosen, the potential may rise by up to 60%. a considerable fraction of this potential comes from agricultural residues, suggesting that indepth assessments of options to combine bioenergy production and soil fertility management (e.g., energy production through biogas production that maintains a large proportion of the nutrients and parts of the carbon) should be undertaken. an integrated optimization of food and energy production based on a "cascade utilization" of biomass is an important option to produce and use bioenergy sustainably [16,94,95] bioenergy potentials on grazing land, as calculated in this study, are substantial, but realizing them might entail massive investments in agricultural technology, such as irrigation infrastructure, and might be associated with vast social and ecological effects, such as a further pressure on populations that practice low-input agriculture. realizing this potential might also trigger land-use change such as deforestation in far distant regions if not combined with robust measures to prevent such effects [17,96,97] at least at present, growth in agricultural production is a strong driver of deforestation
What weakens AMOC?
experts' judgments of maximum changes in regional annual mean black symbols and winter gray symbols temperature following a a weakening of the amoc by 30% relative to present-day
Wwhat is the best estimate of value from experts?
b a shutdown of deep-water formation in the greenland-iceland-norwegian sea, c a shutdown of deep-water formation in the labrador sea, d a complete collapse of the amoc. ghg concentrations are held at present-day levels. shown are the 90 confidence interval and the best estimate value from experts' subjective probability distributions
What refers to the area of strongest cooling?
estimates refer to the region of strongest cooling, whose exact location differed among experts. expert 5 delivered judgments for the change in annual mean temperature for scenario two and four only. note that the panels have different scales
fig. 6 experts' judgments of maximum changes in regional annual mean black symbols and winter gray symbols temperature following a a weakening of the amoc by 30% relative to present-day, b a shutdown of deep-water formation in the greenland-iceland-norwegian sea, c a shutdown of deep-water formation in the labrador sea, d a complete collapse of the amoc. ghg concentrations are held at present-day levels. shown are the 90 confidence interval and the best estimate value from experts' subjective probability distributions. estimates refer to the region of strongest cooling, whose exact location differed among experts. expert 5 delivered judgments for the change in annual mean temperature for scenario two and four only. note that the panels have different scales
Why does the window of opportunity for appliance energy standards stand open only for a short period ?
because once saturation with appliances has been reached, replacement will take a long time
What is the status for windows of opportunity in India and China?
for china, the window of opportunity seems to have closed already, in india it should remain open for another decade
How does The Brazilian city of Curitiba tackle car usage?
the brazilian city of curitiba was able to keep car use at 25% of comparable cities by developing an urban master-plan that prevented urban sprawl and a high-capacity public bus system (rabinovitch and leitman 1996
it should be noted that the window of opportunity for appliance energy standards stands open only for a short period, because once saturation with appliances has been reached, replacement will take a long time. while for china, the window of opportunity seems to have closed already, in india it should remain open for another decade. with respect to car use, several examples portray the emission reduction potential of preventive policy strategies. the brazilian city of curitiba was able to keep car use at 25% of comparable cities by developing an urban master-plan that prevented urban sprawl and a high-capacity public bus system (rabinovitch and leitman 1996). in tokyo, seoul, singapore and hong kong, early restraint of car ownership and/or use, which began before car ownership reached 100 cars per thousand people, provided a time period in which high quality public transport could be built, and in which a transit-friendly urban structure could develop (barter and kenworthy 1997).
What studies first suggested global climate changes on millennial scales?
global climate changes on millennial scales were first suggested by greenland ice-core studies in 1993 (dansgaard et al. 1993
How can artificial translocation be minimized?
artificial translocation, previously proposed as the primary conservation response capable of keeping pace with human-induced climate change (e.g., peters 1992), can be minimized with the careful design of dynamic conservation systems that operate on a landscape scale
What does our evolving understanding of climate dynamics suggest?
our evolving understanding of climate dynamics suggests that natural processes may form the basis of these strategies
(ccs). although these strategies must be tailored to individual regions, to be successful each ccs needs to include five key elements: (1) regional modeling of biodiversity response to climate change; (2) systematic selection of protected areas with climate change as an integral selection factor; (3) management of biodiversity across regional landscapes, including core protected areas and their surrounding matrix, with climate change as an explicit management parameter; (4) mechanisms to support regional coordination of management, both across international borders and across the interface between park and nonpark conservation areas; and (5) provision of resources, from countries with the greatest resources and greatest role in generating climate change to countries in which climate-change effects and biodiversity are highest. to adequately respond to the uncertainties posed by climate change, the provision of resources will be required on a much larger scale than has occurred to present. our evolving understanding of climate dynamics suggests that natural processes may form the basis of these strategies. global climate changes on millennial scales were first suggested by greenland ice-core studies in 1993 (dansgaard et al. 1993). since then, changes on time scales of centuries or even decades have been documented and the global nature of these changes confirmed (broecker 1999). this suggests that a biotic response to rapid climate change has occurred in the past and that response to future rapid human-induced climate change may be possible through natural processes. artificial translocation, previously proposed as the primary conservation response capable of keeping pace with human-induced climate change (e.g., peters 1992), can be minimized with the careful design of dynamic conservation systems that operate on a landscape scale.
What are some ways that increased agricultural production can be achieved?
for example, increased agricultural production can be achieved through increased use of nitrogenous fertilizers, irrigation, or the conversion of natural grasslands and forests to croplands
What are negative effects of increasing agricultural production?
however, these changes can affect the earth's climate through the release of greenhouse gases, lead to land degradation through erosion and salinization of soils, and contribute to the loss of biodiversity and reduction of carbon sequestration through the conversion and fragmentation of natural ecological systems
What factors can negatively impact agricultural production?
agricultural productivity can in turn be adversely affected by changes in climate, especially in the tropics and subtropics, loss of biodiversity and changes at the genetic and species level, and land degradation through loss of soil fertility
meeting human needs in many instances is causing environmental degradation, which in turn threatens the ability to meet present and future needs. for example, increased agricultural production can be achieved through increased use of nitrogenous fertilizers, irrigation, or the conversion of natural grasslands and forests to croplands. however, these changes can affect the earth's climate through the release of greenhouse gases, lead to land degradation through erosion and salinization of soils, and contribute to the loss of biodiversity and reduction of carbon sequestration through the conversion and fragmentation of natural ecological systems. agricultural productivity can in turn be adversely affected by changes in climate, especially in the tropics and subtropics, loss of biodiversity and changes at the genetic and species level, and land degradation through loss of soil fertility. many of these changes adversely affect food security and disproportionately impact the poor. the primary factors underlying anthropogenic climate change are similar to those for most environmental and socio-economic issues--that is, economic growth, broad technological changes, life style patterns, demographic shifts (population size, age structure, and migration), and governance structures. these can give rise to: increased demand for natural resources and energy market imperfections, including subsidies that lead to the inefficient use of resources and act as a barrier to the market penetration of environmentally sound technologies; the lack of recognition of the true value of natural resources; failure to appropriate for the global values of natural resources at the local level; and failure to internalize the costs of environmental degradation into the market price of a resource limited availability and transfer of technology, inefficient use of technologies, and inadequate investment in research and development for the technologies of the future failure to manage adequately the use of natural resources and energy. climate change affects environmental issues such as loss of biodiversity, desertification, stratospheric ozone depletion, freshwater availability, and air quality, and in turn climate change is affected by many of these issues. for example, climate change is projected to exacerbate local and regional air pollution and delay the recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer. in addition, climate change could also affect the productivity and composition of terrestrial and aquatic ecological systems, with a potential loss in both genetic and species diversity; could accelerate the rate of land degradation; and could exacerbate problems related to freshwater quantity and quality in many areas. conversely, local and regional air pollution, stratospheric ozone depletion, changes in ecological systems, and land degradation would affect the earth's climate by changing the sources and sinks of greenhouse gases, radiative balance of the atmosphere, and surface albedo.
according to the passage, what has a correlation with nutrition?
positive health outcomes
overall availability of food shows some correlation with what?
climate variability
nutrition is determined not only by food availability but also by what other factors?
access to food as well as nutritional and child care practices
nutrition is correlated with positive health outcomes, and both adequate amount of calories as well as sufficient nutritional diversity and proteins are important. as outlined above, overall availability of food shows some correlation with climate variability. a recent study by lloyd et al. (2011) builds upon previous work of nelson (2009) to show clearly that climate change and increased climate variability, through their impact on food production, will have a negative impact on the prevalence of undernutrition, increasing severe stunting by 62% in south asia and 55% in east and southern africa by the 2050s. although nutrition is determined not only by food availability but also access to food as well as nutritional and child care practices, there are almost no studies on these other aspects of nutrition determinants (tirado et al., 2010).
what is adaptation?
adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities
what are the various types of adaptation?
various types of adaptation can be distinguished, including anticipatory and reactive adaptation, private and public adaptation, and autonomous and planned adaptation
what are the various detailed discussion of adaptation assumptions and examples?
for a more detailed discussion of adaptation assumptions and examples of studies that could be regarded as first-generation vulnerability assessments in our classification, see smithers and smit (1997) and smit and pilifosova (2001). most initial national communications to the unfccc produced by developing countries are also first-generation vulnerability assessments (lim, 2001
mitigation of climate change refers to actions that limit the level and rate of climate change. the two basic mitigation options are the reduction of (gross) ghg emissions (e.g., through fuel switching in the energy sector) and the direct reduction of their concentrations (through sequestration or enhancing the sink capacity of biological and other systems). adaptation: adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities. various types of adaptation can be distinguished, including anticipatory and reactive adaptation, private and public adaptation, and autonomous and planned adaptation. adaptation to climate change, as defined by the ipcc, comprises a broad range of actions. alternative definitions have sometimes restricted the use of this term to adjustments in social systems, to deliberate changes, to major structural changes in a system, or to a subset of climatic stimuli (smit et al., 2000). figure 4 distinguishes four different ways how adaptation can influence other elements of the conceptual framework. we illustrate each of these links with an example referring to climate impacts on human health. vaccination against climatesensitive vector-borne diseases and early-warning systems for heatwaves are examples of adaptation measures that reduce the sensitivity and exposure of people to climate-related health hazards, respectively. the treatment of people who have already fallen ill can alleviate the impacts of climate change without affecting their exposure or (initial) sensitivity to the stressor. finally, improving the nutritional conditions of children to enhance their immune status is an example of how adaptation can reduce negative non-climatic factors which, in turn, reduces the sensitivity of this population group to climate-related health hazards. first-generation vulnerability assessments raise awareness of the (preadaptation) vulnerability of valued systems to climate change. they may also assess the relative importance of various climatic and non-climatic factors. in so doing they help to prioritize further research and determine the need for mitigation and adaptation measures to reduce adverse effects of climate change. depending on the level of adaptation assumed, assessment results may fall anywhere in the range spanned by the 'dumb farmer' and the 'clairvoyant farmer' trajectories in figure 1. however, as long as the feasibility of implementing adaptations is not assessed, an assessment cannot provide a full picture of the vulnerability of the system under consideration. for a more detailed discussion of adaptation assumptions and examples of studies that could be regarded as first-generation vulnerability assessments in our classification, see smithers and smit (1997) and smit and pilifosova (2001). most initial national communications to the unfccc produced by developing countries are also first-generation vulnerability assessments (lim, 2001).
What do political analysts attribute growing partisan polarization to?
political analysts attribute growing partisan polarization among both political elites and the general public to the increasing alignment between party identification and political ideology
What is market fundamentalism?
the shared commitment to an antiregulatory view of government, or what has been called "market fundamentalism
In terms of peoples' view of government, what is a necessity of developing policies to lower greenhouse gas emissions?
the shared commitment to an antiregulatory view of government, or what has been called "market fundamentalism," is assumed to be the crucial motivator of opposition to recognizing the significance of human-caused climate change and thus the necessity of developing policies to lower greenhouse gas emissions.53
as noted earlier, political analysts attribute growing partisan polarization among both political elites and the general public to the increasing alignment between party identification and political ideology, with republicans becoming increasingly conservative and democrats increasingly liberal.51 in fact, many studies find that political ideology (typically measured with a single item) is a strong predictor of climate change views of the american public, rivaling party identification.52 in both cases, the shared commitment to an antiregulatory view of government, or what has been called "market fundamentalism," is assumed to be the crucial motivator of opposition to recognizing the significance of human-caused climate change and thus the necessity of developing policies to lower greenhouse gas emissions.53
What provides a firm foundation on which policy makers and civil society can build a genuine low-carbon society?
explicit and quantitative carbon budgets
What is not a scientist's job?
it is not our job to be politically expedient with our analysis or to curry favour with our funders
Repercussions of what will be irreversible?
as we evoke a deus ex machina (such as speculative negative emissions or changing the past) to ensure our analyses conform with today's political and economic hegemony, we do society a grave disservice
the ipcc's synthesis report and the scientific framing of the mitigation challenge in terms of carbon budgets are important steps forward. as scientists, we must now leverage the clarity gained by the budget concept to combat the almost global-scale cognitive dissonance in acknowledging its quantitative implications. yet, so far, we simply have not been prepared to accept the revolutionary implications of our own findings, and even when we do we are reluctant to voice such thoughts openly. instead, my long-standing engagement with many colleagues in science leaves me in no doubt that although they work diligently, often against a backdrop of organized scepticism, many are ultimately choosing to censor their own research. explicit and quantitative carbon budgets provide a firm foundation on which policy makers and civil society can build a genuine low-carbon society. but the job of scientists remains pivotal. it is incumbent on our community to communicate our research clearly and candidly to those delivering on the climate goals established by civil society; to draw attention to inconsistencies, misunderstandings and deliberate abuse of the scientific research. it is not our job to be politically expedient with our analysis or to curry favour with our funders. whether our conclusions are liked or not is irrelevant. yet, as we evoke a deus ex machina (such as speculative negative emissions or changing the past) to ensure our analyses conform with today's political and economic hegemony, we do society a grave disservice -- the repercussions of which will be irreversible. 
What does LGM stand for?
last glacial maximum
What year did LGM take place?
approximately 20,000 years ago
What is radiative focusing?
the change in net downward minus upward irradiance (expressed in w m- 2) at the tropopause due to a change in an external driver of the climate system feedback
last glacial maximum (lgm): the period in earth's climate marked by the most recent maximal extent of the northern hemisphere ice sheets during the last glaciation, approximately 20,000 years ago sh: southern hemisphere radiative forcing: the change in net downward minus upward irradiance (expressed in w m- 2) at the tropopause due to a change in an external driver of the climate system feedback: an interaction mechanism in which an initial process triggers a second process that influences the initial one; positive feedbacks intensify the initial process, whereas negative feedbacks reduce it sst: sea-surface temperature aerosols: airborne solid or liquid particles; they may influence the climate directly by scattering and absorbing radiation or indirectly by acting as cloud condensation nuclei and by modifying cloud properties interannual variability: year-to-year variations in earth's climate, internally generated by the climate system itself
What is the key element of American capitalism
a key element of american capitalism is the right of individuals and groups to trade in a free market, driven by supply and consumer demand
When does this argument emerge frequently?
this argument emerges frequently when food companies are criticized for marketing unhealthful foods and respond by claiming they react to demand, or further, that their responsibility is to offer choices to consumers
What would happen if public health were the driving force behind the creation of healthy food alternatives?
if public health were the driving force behind the creation of healthy food alternatives, actions would be taken to that ensure comprehensive reformulation would occur rapidly across the span of food companies, rather than as a specialty item for consumers who consider themselves "dieters
a key element of american capitalism is the right of individuals and groups to trade in a free market, driven by supply and consumer demand. this argument emerges frequently when food companies are criticized for marketing unhealthful foods and respond by claiming they react to demand, or further, that their responsibility is to offer choices to consumers. arguments that their right to create and market foods be curtailed in any way evoke cries that freedom is being usurped and that the basic tenets of free enterprise are being compromised. the idea of food reformulation mentioned earlier raises a number of key issues. reformulation of all foods to decrease fat, sugar, or sodium content could be mandated by government, but, is not - the hope being that consumers will demand these choices, and the free market will respond and act in the public's best interest because consumer's preferences for healthy choices will maximize those factors that are important to them. in this vein, if enough consumers value a healthy lifestyle, a market for reformulated foods will thrive and adept companies will meet the new demand for healthy foods. currently, there is a subset of people who are demanding healthier foods to which the industry is responding; the problem is that these "healthy" foods are presumed to taste worse by many consumers,58 therefore, companies continue to make the higher calorie or higher fat versions as well. if public health were the driving force behind the creation of healthy food alternatives, actions would be taken to that ensure comprehensive reformulation would occur rapidly across the span of food companies, rather than as a specialty item for consumers who consider themselves "dieters." while there is no proof that broad-scale reformulation would have sufficient benefit to justify taking action, the fact that the issue is not discussed in government circles is a sign that the u.s. defaults to individualistic rather than collectivistic philosophies, and that public health is seldom the primary concern. this is a key challenge for the field of public health, making the task of persuading both the public and policy makers of the appropriateness and importance of interventions one of the most important steps in this process. there is a need for research on how to frame the obesity issue in order to gain support for public health interventions. in his paper on how americans have historically assigned responsibility for health, howard lighter states, the timelessness and persistence of holding the individual person responsible for his or her own health status has its genesis in one the of the most distinguishing historical features of american culture and politics, namely the extraordinary emphasis on individuals rights and responsibilities.59
What did the map at left shows?
he map at left shows that runoff in the region will likely decline by at least 5 percent and possibly more than 70 percent, with declines getting progressively worse in the semiarid and arid north
what smallholder farmers depends?
most smallholder farmers will remain heavily dependent on rain-fed agriculture
Define  slow-onset land degradation ?
processes of slow-onset land degradation including deforestation, soil erosion, and desertification already affect large parts of the mexico and central america. in the fragile arid and semi-arid ecosystems of northern and north-western mexico more than 60 percent of the land is considered to be in a total or accelerated state of erosion, and mountainous lands with high slopes throughout the region have suffered deforestation and soil erosion
of particular concern, however, is the likelihood that the region will see persistent declines in precipitation over the course of this century. the map at left shows that runoff in the region will likely decline by at least 5 percent and possibly more than 70 percent, with declines getting progressively worse in the semiarid and arid north. 33 given the region's mountainous topography, extensive irrigation is only practicable in the coastal plains that are dominated by wealthy landowners. most smallholder farmers will remain heavily dependent on rain-fed agriculture. however, even large-scale irrigated areas, such as those in sonora and sinaloa states, the breadbasket of mexico, will be affected as average reservoir levels decline. already, summer droughts during el nino and la nina events can lead to serious deficits in reservoir levels. 34 in the case of guatemala, longer and more intense midsummer drought periods have been linked to long-term declines in rainfall since the 1970s. 35 this drought determines the level of success or failure of rain-fed agriculture. processes of slow-onset land degradation including deforestation, soil erosion, and desertification already affect large parts of the mexico and central america. in the fragile arid and semi-arid ecosystems of northern and north-western mexico more than 60 percent of the land is considered to be in a total or accelerated state of erosion, and mountainous lands with high slopes throughout the region have suffered deforestation and soil erosion. each-for studies were conducted in the hurricane-prone chiapas state of southern mexico, and in tlaxcala state, a highly desertified state in central mexico. both areas are considered very vulnerable to the effects of climate change, particularly in combination with deforestation, erosion, and underlying poverty and social vulnerability. 36
Why are these models particularly attractive?
these are especially attractive climate models because they are highly inhomogeneous yet involve both a well-defined mean climate state as well as an energy spectrum
What do the models capture?
in spherical geometry such models capture a number of large-scale features of the atmosphere
How many steps do we have to take?
we proceed in two steps
in this section we demonstrate the feasibility of the general strategy for stochastic modeling introduced in section 2 on the idealized climate model equations in (2.2) for a barotropic flow on a beta plane with topography and mean flow introduced by leith these are especially attractive climate models because they are highly inhomogeneous yet involve both a well-defined mean climate state as well as an energy spectrum. in spherical geometry such models capture a number of large-scale features of the atmosphere we proceed in two steps. we first introduce a finite-dimensional truncation of the barotropic equations in (2.2), which we call the truncated barotropic equations and are given in (3.6). these equations are well-suited for numerical simulations (see section 6.3) and are readily shown to belong to the class of the model in (2.1). next, we introduce a stochastic model approximation for the truncated barotropic equations by appropriate identification of climate and unresolved variables and stochastic modeling of the nonlinear self-interaction of the unresolved variables. the stochastic model for the truncated barotropic equations is given in (3.17) and belongs to the class of the model in (2.6). the finite-dimensional truncation of the barotropic equations in (2.2) is obtained by making a galerkin approximation where the equations are projected
What do all models reproduce?
all models reproduce the general structures of the observed climatological storm-track pattern under present-day forcing conditions
What include an increase of baroclinic wave activity over the eastern North Atlantic?
ensemble mean changes resulting from anthropogenic forcing include an increase of baroclinic wave activity over the eastern north atlantic
What is also found over the Asian continent and over the North Pacific near the Aleutian Islands?
enhanced activity is also found over the asian continent and over the north pacific near the aleutian islands
institute for geophysics and meteorology, university of cologne, cologne, germany (manuscript received 13 april 2007, in final form 5 july 2007) winter storm-track activity over the northern hemisphere and its changes in a greenhouse gas scenario (the special report on emission scenarios a1b forcing) are computed from an ensemble of 23 single runs from 16 coupled global climate models (cgcms). all models reproduce the general structures of the observed climatological storm-track pattern under present-day forcing conditions. ensemble mean changes resulting from anthropogenic forcing include an increase of baroclinic wave activity over the eastern north atlantic, amounting to 5%-8% by the end of the twenty-first century. enhanced activity is also found over the asian continent and over the north pacific near the aleutian islands. at high latitudes and over parts of the subtropics, activity is reduced. variations of the individual models around the ensemble average signal are not small, with a median of the pattern correlation near r  0.5. there is, however, no evidence for a link between deviations in present-day climatology and deviations with respect to climate change.
What does Kam et al [246] analysed?
kam et al [246] analysed the farm-level economic costs and benefits of several alternatives: (1) autonomous adaptation, that is, spontaneous adoption or response, to climate change; (2) no climate change; and (3) planned, or policy-driven, adaptive strategies in which costs are distributed more equitably across the supply chain or are borne by government and other entities
Describe autonomous adaptation?
here ' autonomous adaptation ' includes farmers ' responses to changes in land and water availability, commodity prices, market incentives, and climate variability. such responses incur incremental capital costs and include using different levels and combinations of inputs, altering species and production systems, adjusting the height of pond dikes, and increasing water volumes pumped into ponds
Who  will be better able to bear the cost of autonomous adaptation?
shrimp farmers will be better able to bear the cost of autonomous adaptation than catfish farmers because they sustain relatively higher profit margins and require lower capital investments than catfish farmers
kam et al [246] analysed the farm-level economic costs and benefits of several alternatives: (1) autonomous adaptation, that is, spontaneous adoption or response, to climate change; (2) no climate change; and (3) planned, or policy-driven, adaptive strategies in which costs are distributed more equitably across the supply chain or are borne by government and other entities. here ' autonomous adaptation ' includes farmers ' responses to changes in land and water availability, commodity prices, market incentives, and climate variability. such responses incur incremental capital costs and include using different levels and combinations of inputs, altering species and production systems, adjusting the height of pond dikes, and increasing water volumes pumped into ponds. shrimp farmers will be better able to bear the cost of autonomous adaptation than catfish farmers because they sustain relatively higher profit margins and require lower capital investments than catfish farmers. however, without government intervention to prevent flooding and salinity intrusion, the shrimp industry in aggregate will likely experience higher adaptation costs, as it covers more area. planned adaptive strategies include genetic improvement of breeding stock and pathogen control. although constructing dikes would reduce river and coastal flooding and salinity intrusion in support of fish production (a provisioning service), opportunities for expansion in both brackish-water and mangrove aquaculture systems that are key to coastal preservation (supporting service) will be lost. in general, evaluating adaptive planning with many types of metrics, including those for ecosystem services through restoration of coastal and intertidal vegetation, were found to provide more data to inform the final choices made by stakeholders [247]. recently, the concept of rainbow water, or terrestrial and oceanic evaporation as a source of atmospheric moisture and subsequent precipitation, has emerged. this conceptualization frames how to harmonize the interests of all users of the hydrologic cycle [248]. available blue water sources -- water used for irrigation, industrial or domestic use -- and grey water sources cannot support the rate of agricultural intensification, so interest in green water -- rainfall used by forests and other vegetation -- has grown. although controversial, passage of air over vegetation with a specific leaf index of 1 in the 10 days preceding rainfall was observed to lead to increased precipitation in africa [249]. it follows that assessments of climate must take into consideration whether, where and how landscape changes alter largescale atmospheric circulation patterns of water far from where the land use and cover changes occur to avoid misalignment of investment in climate mitigation and adaptation [248]. given that climate change is likely to reduce water availability across many agricultural regions, it is critical
when it occurred a real pulse of radiation?
a true radiation pulse during the late pliensbachian, with predominantly cold-water taxa, occurred during sea level fall, suggesting that climate change was critical to setting the evolutionary tempo
where was the record derived from analyzes of belemnite calcite made?
o record derived from analyses of belemnite calcite obtained from three sections in northern spain, covering the upper sinemurian to toarcian
what did they reconstruct from the analyzes of belemnite calcite obtained?
from these two data sets we reconstructed the influence of sea level, trophism, temperature, and salinity on dinoflagellate cyst abundance and diversity in northwest europe
o record derived from analyses of belemnite calcite obtained from three sections in northern spain, covering the upper sinemurian to toarcian. from these two data sets we reconstructed the influence of sea level, trophism, temperature, and salinity on dinoflagellate cyst abundance and diversity in northwest europe. our results suggest that organic-walled phytoplankton (acritarchs, prasinophytes, and dinoflagellates) diversity increased through the early jurassic. the radiation coincides with a long-term eustatic rise and overall increase in the areal extent of continental shelves, a factor critical to cyst germination. on shorter timescales, we observed short bursts of dinoflagellate diversification during the late sinemurian and late pliensbachian. the former diversification is consistent with the opening of the hispanic corridor during the late sinemurian, which apparently allowed the pioneer dinoflagellate, liasidium variabile to invade the tethys from the paleo-pacific. a true radiation pulse during the late pliensbachian, with predominantly cold-water taxa, occurred during sea level fall, suggesting that climate change was critical to setting the evolutionary tempo. our belemnite
What is the test of?
as a test of short-run acclimatization, we explore whether individuals are less sensitive to warmer temperatures as they become more common by estimating the impact of temperatures separately in june versus august
How long did nonemployees spend outside on days with the max temperature at 100F?
at days with a maximum temperature over 100@f, the nonemployed spend 30 more minutes outside in august than in june
as a test of short-run acclimatization, we explore whether individuals are less sensitive to warmer temperatures as they become more common by estimating the impact of temperatures separately in june versus august. as shown in figure 9, while our estimate for the highest temperature bin is consistent with acclimatization for labor, the overall pattern is less well behaved. for outdoor leisure, we find a pattern highly consistent with shortrun acclimatization. responses in august compared to june are smaller at high temperatures but larger at unseasonably cold temperatures. given the dramatic drop in sample size, it is unsurprising that these differences are not statistically significant. the differences at high temperatures, however, are large in magnitude. for example, at days with a maximum temperature over 100@f, the nonemployed spend 30 more minutes outside in august than in june. our final test for adaptation allows for heterogeneous responses to temperature based on historical climates by grouping counties into those in the highest third of historical july - august temperatures and the coldest third. as shown in figure 10, although we continue to see declines in both time allocated to labor and outdoor leisure at high temperatures in the historically warmer places, the response to high temperatures, particularly for outdoor leisure, is noticeably smaller than the response in colder
what does the analyses indicate?
the analyses indicate that the catchment antecedent soil moisture state is the dominant control on event runoff coefficients for the climates and catchment scales examined in this paper
what are the types of analyses?
types of analysis, the analysis of the spatial and the analysis of the temporal variability
what are the examples in literature?
there are examples in the literature where runoff volumes seem to be insensitive to antecedent soil moisture and mainly controlled by event precipitation. an example is the study of kostka and holko [2003], who analyzed runoff response of a mountainous catchment in slovakia. they suggested that the lack of sensitivity of runoff response to soil moisture is related to the role of the riparian zone in runoff generation. scherrer et al. [2007] found, that the sensitivity of runoff coefficient on antecedent soil moisture depends on the dominant runoff processes. hortonian overland flow is hardly affected; while subsurface flow dominated catchments reacted quite sensitively to antecedent wetness
the analyses indicate that the catchment antecedent soil moisture state is the dominant control on event runoff coefficients for the climates and catchment scales examined in this paper. this can be concluded from both types of analysis, the analysis of the spatial and the analysis of the temporal variability. in the analysis of the spatial variability of runoff coefficients, the highest correlations of mean runoff coefficients, sdev, cv, and cs are found for indicators representing the catchment wetness state such as the long-term ratio of actual evaporation to precipitation and mean annual rainfall. in dry catchments runoff coefficients tend to be small and they are highly skewed. because of the small mean values of the distribution, cv tends to be large. in wet catchments event runoff coefficients tend to be high and the distribution function is almost uniform. because of the larger mean values, cv tends to be lower than in drier catchments. the highest correlation coefficients of the runoff coefficient moments are found for the long-term ratio of actual evaporation to precipitation. aet/p is a measure of long-term water input and output of a catchment, and hence it is an indicator of water storage in the soils. similarly, a high correlation is found for mean annual precipitation. the important control of antecedent soil moisture on runoff coefficients is also apparent in by the seasonal analysis of the hydrological quantities (figures 9 and figure 11 (right)). the seasonal behavior of the runoff coefficients is quite similar to the seasonal variability of soil moisture. in winter to spring, when soil moisture is high, runoff coefficients tend to be high, while in summer, when catchments are dryer, the runoff coefficients tend to be lower. there are also important differences between the regions related to the earlier snowmelt in the lowlands than in the alps. the analysis of the temporal variability also corroborates the importance of antecedent soil moisture. the two cumulative distribution functions of event runoff coefficients stratified by the antecedent soil moisture state are much more different than the cumulative distribution functions stratified by event rainfall depth or maximum event rainfall intensity. this suggests that for this type of climate and catchment scale the differences in runoff formation due to varying antecedent soil moisture is much larger than the increase in the runoff coefficient during a rainfall event. a similar result has been found by kohl and markart [2002], who analyzed rainfall sprinkling tests on austrian hillslopes. they found only a slight increase in surface runoff coefficients between 30 and 100 mm/h rainfall, while the seasonal variation in runoff coefficients at the same site, which may be related to seasonal soil moisture variation, is much larger. the importance of antecedent soil moisture on the runoff coefficients is also corroborated by the analysis of runoff coefficients of maximum annual floods stratified by different flood causing mechanisms by merz and blo"schl [2003]. they found, that the largest runoff coefficients occur for snowmelt floods and long rain floods, both associated by wet antecedent conditions. the analysis also indicates that soil moisture derived from soil moisture accounting schemes has more predictive power for the temporal variability of runoff coefficients than antecedent rainfall. initial conditions are likely to affect runoff volume for most runoff generation types; in hortonian runoff through reducing infiltration capacity, in saturation excess runoff through expanding contributing areas, and in macropore flow and subsurface stormflow through connecting preferential flow paths merz and plate 1997; zehe and blo"schl 2004]. in most of the catchments of the study area runoff generation likely occurs by a mix of these mechanisms. initial conditions are not always found to closely drive runoff response. there are examples in the literature where runoff volumes seem to be insensitive to antecedent soil moisture and mainly controlled by event precipitation. an example is the study of kostka and holko [2003], who analyzed runoff response of a mountainous catchment in slovakia. they suggested that the lack of sensitivity of runoff response to soil moisture is related to the role of the riparian zone in runoff generation. scherrer et al. [2007] found, that the sensitivity of runoff coefficient on antecedent soil moisture depends on the dominant runoff processes. hortonian overland flow is hardly affected; while subsurface flow dominated catchments reacted quite sensitively to antecedent wetness.
What do comparisons allow?
comparisons allow the faithfulness of the sediment record and the robustness of palaeoecological techniques used to be evaluated providing added confidence in the use of sediments in extending the lake record back through time
Give an example of somwhere that has long observational records?
the longest observational records, such as those from the english lake district that began in the 1940s
What is an opportunity arising from the lengething of long-term lake time series?
as long-term lake time series continue to lengthen, the temporal overlap with lake sediment records increases providing increased opportunities for comparing the two
as long-term lake time series continue to lengthen, the temporal overlap with lake sediment records increases providing increased opportunities for comparing the two. comparisons allow the faithfulness of the sediment record and the robustness of palaeoecological techniques used to be evaluated providing added confidence in the use of sediments in extending the lake record back through time. in european lakes this is especially important as even the longest observational records, such as those from the english lake district that began in the 1940s, are insufficiently long to capture conditions prior to the onset of nutrient enrichment from human activity (bennion et al ., 2011).
What typically raises the metabolic rates of both plants and microbes and what is it indicated by?
warming typically raises the metabolic rates of both plants and microbes, as indicated by most greenhouse and incubation experiments
What did the data from the earliest reported year show?
using the data from the earliest reported year, the results showed that the stimulation effect by 2 deg c warming was statistically significant for rh in both forests and grasslands (table 2
What analysis does the data from the earliest reported year contrast?
this result contrasts a previous meta-analysis (on a 40% smaller dataset) that reported no significant changes in rh (dieleman et al. 2012). in that analysis, grasslands exhibited a negative response of rh to warming, whereas including more warming experiments in this analysis yielded a small yet statistically significant positive effect warming effect on rh in grasslands (table 2). the higher rh under warming could be due to faster litter decomposition rate and
warming typically raises the metabolic rates of both plants and microbes, as indicated by most greenhouse and incubation experiments. using the data from the earliest reported year, the results showed that the stimulation effect by 2 deg c warming was statistically significant for rh in both forests and grasslands (table 2). this result contrasts a previous meta-analysis (on a 40% smaller dataset) that reported no significant changes in rh (dieleman et al. 2012). in that analysis, grasslands exhibited a negative response of rh to warming, whereas including more warming experiments in this analysis yielded a small yet statistically significant positive effect warming effect on rh in grasslands (table 2). the higher rh under warming could be due to faster litter decomposition rate and
What is smoothing?
smoothing can be a helpful process in that random noise and high frequency seasonal variability can be smoothed in favour of the underlying trends
What is a downside of smoothing?
although smoothing can be a helpful process in that random noise and high frequency seasonal variability can be smoothed in favour of the underlying trends, it can also lead to the elimination or muting of events in a somewhat arbitrary way
What did Myvatn Hauptfleisch et al (2012) show?
in myvatn hauptfleisch et al (2012) show that the amplitude in the cyclical pattern in chironomid egg abundance in the sediment record 8 8 is four times less than the amplitude of the observed chironomid population
although smoothing can be a helpful process in that random noise and high frequency seasonal variability can be smoothed in favour of the underlying trends, it can also lead to the elimination or muting of events in a somewhat arbitrary way. in myvatn hauptfleisch et al (2012) show that the amplitude in the cyclical pattern in chironomid egg abundance in the sediment record 8 8 is four times less than the amplitude of the observed chironomid population, and in lake maggiore, kampf et al (2012) show that not all the recorded floods for the lake are registered in the sediment. so in one case, the signal is muted, possibly as a result of bioturbation and in the second, signals below a certain strength threshold (in terms of magnitude and/or duration) may not be registered.
Why is it  common for engineers to oversize air conditioning plant by 30 - 50%?
to ensure both that they do not fail in use and to future-proof buildings against climate change
Examples of patterns that change in ever-shorter cycles?
from office to apartment, shop to restaurant and power station to museum, requiring the market to develop more flexible, adaptable
Examples of high embodied energy materials?
aluminium, tin and steel
it is common for engineers to oversize air conditioning plant by 30 - 50% to ensure both that they do not fail in use and to future-proof buildings against climate change. <s121>* building usage patterns are changing in ever-shorter cycles, for example from office to apartment, shop to restaurant and power station to museum, requiring the market to develop more flexible, adaptable, systems with shorter payback periods to reflect shorter life cycles. 14 <s121>* this trend for smaller systems, more often changed, also has a significant impact on the embodied energy of the systems, typically made with high embodied energy materials such as aluminium, tin and steel.
According to Fussel, what does the effectiveness of proactive adaptation to climate change depend on?
the effectiveness of pro-active adaptation to climate change often depends on the accuracy of regional climate and impact projections, which are subject to substantial uncertainty
What is the chapter going to address?
this chapter addresses this important question by investigating whether or not the lack of accurate climate predictions represents a limit - or perceived limit - to adaptation
What approach to climate prediction and adaptation will the chapter suggest?
an approach focused on robust decision-making
projections of future climate and its impacts on society and the environment have been crucial for the emergence of climate change as a global problem for public policy and decision-making. climate projections are based on a variety of scenarios, models and simulations which contain a number of embedded assumptions. central to much of the discussion surrounding adaptation to climate change is the claim - explicit or implicit - that decision-makers need accurate, and increasingly precise, assessments of the future impacts of climate change in order to adapt successfully. according to fussel 2007 ), 'the effectiveness of pro-active adaptation to climate change often depends on the accuracy of regional climate and impact projections, which are subject to substantial uncertainty'. similarly, gagnon-lebrun and agrawala 2006 note that the level of certainty associated with climate change and impact projections is often key to determining the extent to which such information can be used to formulate appropriate adaptation responses. if true, these claims place a high premium on accurate and precise climate predictions at a range of geographical and temporal scales. but is effective adaptation tied to the ability of the scientifi c enterprise to predict future climate with accuracy and precision? this chapter addresses this important question by investigating whether or not the lack of accurate climate predictions represents a limit - or perceived limit - to adaptation. we examine the arguments implicit in the various claims made about climate prediction and adaptation, and suggest that an approach focused on robust decision-making is less likely to be constrained by epistemological limits and therefore more likely to succeed than an approach focused on optimal decisionmaking predicated on the predictive accuracy of climate models.
What are the three great rivers situated at the Bangladesh?
bangladesh is indeed a hydraulic civilization situated at the confluence of three great rivers - the ganges, the brahmaputra and the meghna
What percent of GBM lies outside the boundaries of the country?
over 90 per cent of the ganges-brahmaputra-meghna (gbm) basin lies outside the boundaries of the country
How many rivers intersected by the Bangladesh?
the country is intersected by more than 200 rivers; there are 54 rivers that enter bangladesh from india alone
bangladesh is indeed a hydraulic civilization situated at the confluence of three great rivers - the ganges, the brahmaputra and the meghna. over 90 per cent of the ganges-brahmaputra-meghna (gbm) basin lies outside the boundaries of the country. the extensive floodplains at the confluence are the main physiographic feature of the country. the country is intersected by more than 200 rivers; there are 54 rivers that enter bangladesh from india alone. moreover, more than 80 per cent of the annual precipitation of the country occurs during the monsoon period between june and september. these hydro-meteorological characteristics of the three river basins are unique and make the country vulnerable to a range of climate risks, including severe flooding and periodic droughts. most of bangladesh consists of extremely low land. the capital city of dhaka (population of over 12 million) is about 225km from the coast but within 8m above mean sea level (msl). land elevation increases towards the northwest and reaches a height of about 90m above msl (plate 2.1). the highest areas are the hill tracts in the eastern and chittagong regions. the lowest parts of the country are in the coastal areas. these areas are particularly vulnerable to sea level rise and tidal storm surges. bangladesh has a humid sub-tropical climate. the year can be divided into four seasons: the
What do you need to look at to prove the adaptations in reducing vulnerability worked well?
characteristics of success need to be identified to capture the effectiveness of adaptations in reducing vulnerability
How efficient is it to use the success characteristics as a measure to the adaptations effectiveness?
while some adaptations may have direct and measureable outcomes, in many instances impacts on vulnerability are not directly visible and/or will be evident only over many decades, with different interpretations on what characterizes "success
What are some complications that interfere with the process of outcome measurements of the adaptations in reducing vulnerability?
disentangling the role played by adaptation is further complicated by the fact that baseline climatic and socioeconomic conditions that determine adaptation effectiveness also change, potentially rendering interventions ineffective. moreover, adaptation strategies that are successful in the short term may be maladaptive in the long term, exacerbating vulnerability due to altered behavior (e.g., morale hazard), changed patterns of development, displacement of risks to other groups, and creation of path dependency, and in light of challenges of maintaining interventions (e.g., upkeep of hazard protection measures
characteristics of success need to be identified to capture the effectiveness of adaptations in reducing vulnerability. while some adaptations may have direct and measureable outcomes, in many instances impacts on vulnerability are not directly visible and/or will be evident only over many decades, with different interpretations on what characterizes "success" (see themes 1, 3, and 5 in this special edition). disentangling the role played by adaptation is further complicated by the fact that baseline climatic and socioeconomic conditions that determine adaptation effectiveness also change, potentially rendering interventions ineffective. moreover, adaptation strategies that are successful in the short term may be maladaptive in the long term, exacerbating vulnerability due to altered behavior (e.g., morale hazard), changed patterns of development, displacement of risks to other groups, and creation of path dependency, and in light of challenges of maintaining interventions (e.g., upkeep of hazard protection measures) (barnett and o'neill 2010, fazey et al. 2011). some policy evaluation scholarship focuses on process characteristics of policy development and implementation instead of on the evaluation of effectiveness, but debate on these components in an adaptation context remains in its infancy.
Economics and social science journals have published?
eading economics and social science journals have published an increasing number of articles in recent years on the projected effects of global climate change on important outcomes, including aggregate economic activity, agriculture, and health
Climate impact estimates?
as in empirical work more broadly, climate impact estimates could be expected to provide both a best guess of potential impacts--that is, an unbiased point estimate--as well as a sense of the uncertainty around this estimate
To quantify potential impacts?
to quantify potential impacts, these studies typically combine estimates of the historical relationship between climate variables and outcomes of interest with projections of future changes in climate, the latter typically derived from global climate models
eading economics and social science journals have published an increasing number of articles in recent years on the projected effects of global climate change on important outcomes, including aggregate economic activity, agriculture, and health. results of these studies have featured prominently in public policy debates, informing decisions about appropriate investments in greenhouse gas emissions reductions, as well as in measures designed to help societies adapt to a changing climate. such investments represent potentially large amounts of resources. for instance, a high-profile assessment concluded that expected future climate damages warrant an immediate annual investment of 1% to 2% of global gdp to avoid the worst effects of climate change (stern, 2007).1similarly, the 2009 us$100 billion pledged in annual transfers from rich to poor countries to help the latter adapt to expected climate impacts is close to the total current annual foreign aid transfer from rich to poor countries.2generating credible estimates of climate impacts is thus of considerable public concern. as in empirical work more broadly, climate impact estimates could be expected to provide both a best guess of potential impacts--that is, an unbiased point estimate--as well as a sense of the uncertainty around this estimate. unfortunately, a methodological flaw common in many recent impact studies results in their often providing neither the best guess of possible impacts nor an appropriate characterization of the uncertainty. to quantify potential impacts, these studies typically combine estimates of the historical relationship between climate variables and outcomes of interest with projections of future changes in climate, the latter typically derived from global climate models. although such studies are typically careful to document the statistical uncertainty inherent in the historical relationship between climate variables and outcomes of interest, they rarely account for the large degree of climate uncertainty found in existing projections of climate change itself. studies overwhelmingly rely on projections from only one or a handful of climate models, despite the availability of over twenty such models that are in wide use in the climate science community, the frequently large discrepancies across models, and the lack of evidence that any particular subset of models is more reliable than others for long-term projections (randall et al., 2007; meehl et al., 2007). our survey of this growing literature reveals that of the nearly 200 papers that make quantitative climate impact projections for economic, political, or social outcomes, the median number of climate models used is just two, with disproportionate dependence on only a few of the over twenty recognized models. many studies rely on a single model, the hadley centre climate model,3despite the lack of systematic evidence that it is any more trustworthy than alternatives, and the ready availability of data from at least fifteen models since at least 2000. because climate models can disagree on both the magnitude and even the sign of future changes in key climate variables, point estimates using a single projection of future climate can mislead, and the range of possible outcomes around this point estimate will be substantially understated if the full extent of climate uncertainty is not taken into account. failure to incorporate this uncertainty into impact studies thus renders much of the rapidly growing literature on the economics of climate change a potentially poor guide for public policy. in this paper, we--a team of climate scientists and social scientists--provide a readily usable analytical approach that addresses the role of climate uncertainty in estimates of climate change impacts. to illustrate our approach, we reexamine data from seven well-cited articles in the climate impacts literature that explore potential impacts on various outcomes, including agricultural productivity, economic growth, and civil conflict. to isolate the role of climate uncertainty from other study characteristics that might also affect impact estimates--for instance, authors' choices about the study sample or econometric specification--we remain agnostic on these choices and focus attention on the authors' own preferred analytical approach in each study. the results we present here are thus not meant to provide
What is the E-ball concept?
when i express my concerns in this way i imagine a grotesque expansion of the e-ball (discussed in chapter 5 to the extent that our collective capacity to juggle the rest of the balls effectively and systemically is lost
What is the relation between the discussed project and society?
they note that 'while the diagram is circular in the sense that what the projects set out to do should have an impact in wider society, and society provides the funding, the circularity does not necessarily imply a continuation or longevity of the benefits that should accrue from the projects' existence' (p. 98
What is the aim of the discussed project?
bell and morse's experiences arise in the domain of sustainable development practice, primarily through 'development assistance' in poorer countries
it is possible to capture the double sense of the meaning of project if one thinks of what we do when we project our projects onto the world i have this image of shelves upon shelves, and now electronic files galore, of projects that have been labelled 'finished' and thus are hardly ever engaged with again. when i express my concerns in this way i imagine a grotesque expansion of the e-ball (discussed in chapter 5 to the extent that our collective capacity to juggle the rest of the balls effectively and systemically is lost. in making this connection to the e-ball i am pointing out how the project has become one of the most pervasive of social technologies. the contemporary project process has been characterised by bell and morse 6 in the form shown in fig. 9.1 these authors describe fig. 9.1 as the 'project ideal'. they note that 'while the diagram is circular in the sense that what the projects set out to do should have an impact in wider society, and society provides the funding, the circularity does not necessarily imply a continuation or longevity of the benefits that should accrue from the projects' existence' (p. 98). they express my own con cerns and experience when they go on to say that their special concern is that there is rarely any lasting benefit to the situation from doing of the project. they observe that 'the projectified world order significantly fails to meet long-term needs and goals' (ibid). bell and morse's experiences arise in the domain of sustainable development practice, primarily through 'development assistance' in poorer countries. what of other domains?
What is the difference between proximal variable and distal variable?
a proximal variable determines the organism's response. in contrast, a distal variable is only linked to the proximal variable (either causally or even more distally via noncausal correlation
What is the difference between scenopoetic variables and nonscenopoetic variables?
scenopoetic variables are not affected by the presence of organisms of the focal species (scenopoetic derives from greek roots for "setting the stage.").9,41on the other hand, nonscenopoetic variables are affected by the presence of organisms of the focal species
How is the variable classified?
variables may be classified by the effect that the focal species has on the variable itself
a proximal variable determines the organism's response. in contrast, a distal variable is only linked to the proximal variable (either causally or even more distally via noncausal correlation). finally, variables may be classified by the effect that the focal species has on the variable itself. scenopoetic variables are not affected by the presence of organisms of the focal species (scenopoetic derives from greek roots for "setting the stage.").9,41on the other hand, nonscenopoetic variables are affected by the presence of organisms of the focal species. because a variable's categorization under each of the three schemes relates to its relationship with the focal species, it can vary according to the particular species being studied. furthermore, a given variable can be categorized into each of the three schemes, although not always independently. for example, indirect variables never can be proximal. note that although direct variables often constitute abiotic scenopoetic variables, and resource variables frequently represent nonscenopoetic biotic factors, classification of biotic interactions into these three schemes requires
By how long could winter snow seasons be shortened by?
the length of the winter snow season could be cut in half across northern new york, vermont, new hampshire, and maine, and reduced to a week or two in southern parts of the region
What have NECIA climate projections been used to assess?
necia climate projections to assess the impacts of these two very different future northeast climates on vital aspects of the region's life and economy: coastal areas, marine fisheries, forests, agriculture, winter recreation, and human health
How are northeastern winters projected to change?
northeast winters are projected to warm 5degf to 8degf above historic levels by late-century, and summers by 3degf to 7degf
by late this century, under the higher-emissions scenario: * winters in the northeast could warm by 8degf to 12degf and summers by 6degf to 14degf above historic levels. * the length of the winter snow season could be cut in half across northern new york, vermont, new hampshire, and maine, and reduced to a week or two in southern parts of the region. * cities across the northeast, which today experience few days above 100 deg f each summer, could average 20 such days per summer, and more southern cities such as hartford and philadelphia could average nearly 30 days. * short-term (oneto three-month) droughts could occur as frequently as once each summer in the area of the catskills and the adirondacks, and across the new england states. * hot summer conditions could arrive three weeks earlier and last three weeks longer into the fall. * global average sea level is conservatively projected to rise one to two feet. in contrast, substantially smaller climate-related changes can be expected if the northeast and the world reduce emissions consistent with the lower-emissions scenario used in this study--typically, about half the change expected under the higher-emissions scenario. for example, northeast winters are projected to warm 5degf to 8degf above historic levels by late-century, and summers by 3degf to 7degf. this report builds upon and extends these findings. necia collaborators--leading scientists and economists from universities and research institutions across the northeast and the nation--have used the necia climate projections to assess the impacts of these two very different future northeast climates on vital aspects of the region's life and economy: coastal areas, marine fisheries, forests, agriculture, winter recreation, and human health. they also describe actions that can be taken today in the northeast to reduce emissions and help avoid the most severe impacts of global warming and to adapt to the unavoidable changes that past emissions have already set in motion.
What is the most obvious limitation on the TD?
the most obvious limitation on the td is that it can only be run on the output from the wg
When must the request for output from the WG be configured appropriately?
if the intended use of wg outputs is to post-process them via the td then the request for output from the wg must be configured appropriately
Why will users have to develop any indices from the hourly output themselves?
the td will only work at the daily timescale, so users will have to develop any indices from the hourly output themselves
the most obvious limitation on the td is that it can only be run on the output from the wg. furthermore, it will only work with output where 100 runs have been selected (for each of future and baseline climates) for daily data of 30-yr duration. if the intended use of wg outputs is to post-process them via the td then the request for output from the wg must be configured appropriately. the td will only work at the daily timescale, so users will have to develop any indices from the hourly output themselves. the td is a what you see is what you get tool. it has no knowledge of weather and climate and cannot therefore provide any scientific validation on its own. it is therefore recommended that the td is used with caution. the more complex the requirement the less possible it is to guarantee that the td is providing sensible results.
What is the expected rise in global temperature due to anthropogenic climate change by the end of 21st century?
between 1.8 and 4.0oc
What will be percentage or risk of extinction due to increase in global temperature?
20-30% of plants and animals
What is called the transportation of species to suitable conditions?
assisted migration
by the end of the 21st century anthropogenic climate change is projected to cause global temperatures to rise between 1.8 and 4.0oc (ipcc 2007a), and this is expected to increase the risk of extinction for 20-30% of plants and animals that have been examined to date, with profound consequences for global biodiversity (ipcc 2007b; see also thomas et al. 2004). for any particular species, extinction risk will be elevated if suitable habitat conditions either disappear entirely (williams et al 2007), or more likely, if suitable conditions shift faster than the species can migrate to keep up (parmesan 2006). this prospect has contributed to the debate on "assisted migration" - to what degree should we intervene to help species avert extinction by transporting them to where suitable conditions exist? (mclachlan et al 2007).
What are the required efforts?
diversify household income sources; improve crop productivity; support greater agricultural research and development; promote education and skills development; increase access to financial services; enhance irrigation efficiency and overall water and land productivity; strengthen climate risk management; and develop protective infrastructure
What does thecurrent large gap between actual and potential yields suggest?
substantial on-farm opportunities for growth and poverty reduction
What are the planning needed?
expanded availability of modern rice varieties, irrigation facilities, fertilizer use and labour could increase average yields at rates that could more than offset the climate change impacts
this requires, among other things, efforts to: diversify household income sources; improve crop productivity; support greater agricultural research and development; promote education and skills development; increase access to financial services; enhance irrigation efficiency and overall water and land productivity; strengthen climate risk management; and develop protective infrastructure. moreover, the current large gap between actual and potential yields suggests substantial on-farm opportunities for growth and poverty reduction. expanded availability of modern rice varieties, irrigation facilities, fertilizer use and labour could increase average yields at rates that could more than offset the climate change impacts. significant additional planning and investments in promoting these types of adaptations are still needed.
Sue Roaf is a what?
professor of architectural engineering at heriot watt university
How many years in Iraq?
10 years
Sues sons names?
christopher and richard
sue roaf is professor of architectural engineering at heriot watt university, edinburgh, and visiting professor at the open university. with degrees from manchester university, the architectural association and oxford polytechnic, she has worked widely on ecobuilding design, carbon accounting, adapting buildings and cities for climate change, traditional technologies, and sustainable and low-carbon buildings. she co-designed and owns the oxford ecohouse, the first building in the uk with a photovoltaic roof, and does much to promote resilient low-impact and low-carbon architecture through the research, teaching, publishing and conferences she organizes on solar cities, carbon counting, architectural education, thermal comfort and post occupancy evaluation. her phd was on the windcatchers of yazd and she spent 10 years in iran and iraq as an architect, archaeologist, anthropologist, lecturer and landscape architect. she has two sons, christopher and richard. she has written and edited 10 books, including ecohouse a design guide closing the loop: benchmarks for sustainable buildings and the ice-houses of britain she lecturers widely to audiences around the world.
What is this paper based on?
climate change impacts and adaptation at the city scale
this review paper summarises the evidence base relating to climate change impacts and adaptation at the city scale, with a focus on whether this has been expressed in quantitative terms. it also reviews how this information has been used, for example: as a metric with which to communicate the possible severity of climate change impacts; as an input to the application of decision-support tools (such as cost-benefit, or cost-effectiveness analysis); or to help evaluation potential adaptation options and strategies. here, we are primarily interested in major world cities though many of the findings of this literature review have relevance to smaller cities. t
What two coastal groups are characterized by high winter precipitation and summer droughts that are more severe in the southern coastal group?
the two coastal groups 'pacific northwest' and 'california' are characterized by high winter precipitation and summer droughts that are more severe in the southern coastal group (fig. 1
What is remarkably homogeneous?
the climate of sample sites for the four interior groups 'canadian rockies' to 'mexico' is remarkably homogeneous
What two southern interior groups, further show an increasingly dry season between April and June, followed by a period of higher precipitation?
the two southern interior groups 'southwest rocky mountains' and 'mexico' further show an increasingly pronounced dry season between april and june, followed by a period of higher precipitation (fig. 1
the two coastal groups 'pacific northwest' and 'california' are characterized by high winter precipitation and summer droughts that are more severe in the southern coastal group (fig. 1). the climate of sample sites for the four interior groups 'canadian rockies' to 'mexico' is remarkably homogeneous. although there is a large difference in winter temperature among the regions, growing season temperatures peak at around 18 1 c for all groups and total precipitation for the april- september period is around 380 mm. there is a slight increase in growing season temperature and precipitation from the north to the south. the two southern interior groups 'southwest rocky mountains' and 'mexico' further show an increasingly pronounced dry season between april and june, followed by a period of higher precipitation (fig. 1). chronology samples appear to be representative of the general douglas-fir populations recorded in forest
What are the ecosystem services provided by mangroves, salt marshes and salt flats?
the ecosystem services provided by mangroves, salt marshes and salt flats include biofiltration, carbon and nutrient retention and cycling, physical protection of coasts during storms and other large scale disturbances, and habitat for fauna, algae and microbial communities, many of which are confined to wetland habitats (tables 9.2 and 9.3
How did loss and degradation of mangroves and other tidal wetlands occur?
loss and degradation of mangroves and other tidal wetlands have occurred because of clearing, modification for human uses and through pollution of coastal waters2,181,3,5,142
What can reduce the resilience of ecosystems in Queensland which also enjoys legislative protection of intertidal wetlands?
although there is legislative protection of intertidal wetlands in queensland, human modifications within the coastal zone will reduce the resilience of ecosystems, making them more vulnerable to environmental pressures like climate change82,45
the ecosystem services provided by mangroves, salt marshes and salt flats include biofiltration, carbon and nutrient retention and cycling, physical protection of coasts during storms and other large scale disturbances, and habitat for fauna, algae and microbial communities, many of which are confined to wetland habitats (tables 9.2 and 9.3). loss and degradation of mangroves and other tidal wetlands have occurred because of clearing, modification for human uses and through pollution of coastal waters2,181,3,5,142. this has resulted in an estimated global reduction in mangrove cover of 35 percent since the early 1980s, with a reported 14 percent loss in cover in australia from 1983 to 1990181,5. although there is legislative protection of intertidal wetlands in queensland, human modifications within the coastal zone will reduce the resilience of ecosystems, making them more vulnerable to environmental pressures like climate change82,45. in this chapter, we first give a brief account of intertidal wetlands within the gbr and then provide a qualitative assessment of the exposure, sensitivity and vulnerability of mangroves, salt marshes and salt flats to climate change. we provide a generalised account of ecosystem services (table 9.3), and give an outline of models and methods that are currently used in assessing vulnerability of wetlands to climate change. we conclude this chapter with a list of issues for environmental managers and significant gaps in our knowledge that need to be filled in order to better understand changes in the extent, community composition and functioning of mangrove habitats that are occurring with climate change; and place the impacts of these changes within the context of continued sustainability of the gbr. part ii: species and species groups
In what year were the supply and protection of drinking water sources identified as the main strategic priority? 2008
in 2008, supply and protection of drinking water sources was identified as the top strategic priority of north american water professionals runge and mann, 2008 
What requires effective and sustainable use and management of water? Requires the integration of water and soil management
accordingly, effective and sustainable use and management of water requires integration of water and land management that is specifically linked to characteristics of physiographic regions that supply water
How are traditional SWP plans designed and aligned to control or minimize the potential for introducing chemicals or contaminants into surface waters that pose a threat to human health as well as aquatic life
traditional swp plans are designed "to control or minimize the potential for introduction of chemicals or contaminants in surface water that pose a threat to human health as well as aquatic life
in 2008, supply and protection of drinking water sources was identified as the top strategic priority of north american water professionals runge and mann, 2008 ). this is not surprising, given that rapidly expanding demand and associated increased competition over existing water supplies from industrial and municipal development is a major challenge facing water managers globally. this challenge is amplified by changes in water quality, quantity, and timing of availability that are caused by climate change and associated land disturbances. accordingly, effective and sustainable use and management of water requires integration of water and land management that is specifically linked to characteristics of physiographic regions that supply water. much of this integrated management has been historically considered in the context of "source water protection". traditional swp plans are designed "to control or minimize the potential for introduction of chemicals or contaminants in surface water that pose a threat to human health as well as aquatic life" alberta environment, 2006 ). they also state or imply that "watershed protection approaches safeguard drinking water supplies from potential contamination as a way to ensure the highest quality water and to reduce treatment costs" usepa, 1997 ). although swp plans may prevent anthropogenic water quality changes, they often cannot prevent or mitigate the water quality impacts associated with climate change and natural land disturbances (e.g., wildfire, severe flooding) nor are they focused on or able to increase quantity and/or control availability of water supplies.
In what was the Earth System Grid Federation first used?
the earth system grid federation (esgf; http:// cmip -pcmdi .llnl .gov/ cmip5/ data portal .html), which was first used in cmip5, allows modeling groups to post model output to nodes on the esgf for archiving and access by the community at any time
What does the Earth Grid Federation allows what?
the earth system grid federation (esgf; http:// cmip -pcmdi .llnl .gov/ cmip5/ data portal .html), which was first used in cmip5, allows modeling groups to post model output to nodes on the esgf for archiving and access by the community at any time
When the Earth System Grid Federation allows modeling groups to post model output to nodes on the ESGF for archiving and access by the community?
the earth system grid federation (esgf; http:// cmip -pcmdi .llnl .gov/ cmip5/ data portal .html), which was first used in cmip5, allows modeling groups to post model output to nodes on the esgf for archiving and access by the community at any time
the earth system grid federation (esgf; http:// cmip -pcmdi .llnl .gov/ cmip5/ data portal .html), which was first used in cmip5, allows modeling groups to post model output to nodes on the esgf for archiving and access by the community at any time. therefore, the mips would not have to wait until the very end of the cmip6 cycle to run experiments, thereby avoiding the pressure of running and analyzing a huge number of experiments within a couple of months near the end of the cmip6 cycle or some assessment deadline. a cmip benchmarking and evaluation software package (made available to everyone, for example through the working group on numerical experimentation/working group on coupled models (wgne/wgcm) metrics panel wiki) would then produce wellestablished analyses as soon as model results became available. the objective is to enable routine model evaluation and to aid the model development process by providing feedback concerning systematic model errors in the individual models.
Who does this report raise many challenging and urgent questions for?
politicians, civil servants, academics, health professionals, ngos, pressure groups, and local communities
What is potentially the biggest global health threat in the 21st century?
climate change
What is the most urgent need?
to empower poor countries, and local government and local communities everywhere, to understand climate implications and to take action
this report raises many challenging and urgent questions for politicians, civil servants, academics, health professionals, ngos, pressure groups, and local communities. climate change is potentially the biggest global health threat in the 21st century. our response requires a new public health movement that is multidisciplinary and multisectoral, and that leads to coordinated thinking and action across governments, international agencies, ngos, and academic institutions. any adaptation interventions must sit alongside the need for primary mitigation: reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. indeed, recognition by governments and electorates that climate change has enormous health implications should assist the advocacy and political change to tackle mitigation and adaptation. whichever mitigation strategies are chosen by governments or agreed at the copenhagen conference, the move to a low-carbon economy will have global health benefi ts and these must also be emphasised. more research is needed on win-win solutions, which are equally important in developed and developing countries. we have proposed a framework for responding to the health eff ects through adaptation strategies, which in turn embeds mitigation strategies to improve human health worldwide. this framework raises several important issues for action: * climate change mitigation and adaptation are essential elements to overall development policy. they are not separate issues that can be divided from the agenda for poverty alleviation or for closing the gap on social inequalities and health. * the most urgent need is to empower poor countries, and local government and local communities everywhere, to understand climate implications and to take action. health professionals and university academics have an important catalytic role. multidisciplinary groups from higher education institutions can have a forceful role in engaging with community leaders, civil society organisations, and students in these debates. there is a need for new fi nancing for global links between developed and developing countries that create a two-way dialogue. developed countries can help to strengthen capacity for high-quality research and information collection in developing countries, and developing countries can strengthen the ability of developed countries to understand sustainability and low-carbon living. empowerment is as much about community mobilisation as high-level political action. the empowerment process is likely to be pluralistic and chaotic, but health and academic communities can do much to support and catalyse these processes. * an agenda for developing countries must be developed through global cooperation. representation on global task forces to assess the health eff ect of climate change is heavily skewed in favour of institutions in developed countries. in poor countries, health assessments and high-level climate science and health surveillance research are a priority. new research and advocacy groupings in africa and south asia are needed, and the academic community of developed countries must have a role in lobbying for resources and support. food and water insecurity are early eff ects of climate change and will be a high priority for poor communities. distilling academic fi ndings into simple language, policy briefs, and user-friendly media is essential. * climate change should be integrated into the entire discourse of our present and should be taken into consideration for all governance actions. an advocacy movement must ensure that the health eff ects of climate change are placed high on the agenda of every research and development funder, philanthropist, academic journal, scientifi c conference, professional meeting, and university or school curriculum. academics should lead advocacy within their own spheres of infl uence. * accountability mechanisms are crucial. we hope that this report will initiate or stimulate new funding and networks to monitor what is happening in government, civil society, academia, local government, and communities, especially in the most vulnerable populations. accountability indicators should be monitored by the academic community and civil society organisations. it should be possible to agree upon health and climate change goals and targets for the processes of engagement and empowerment. global and regional conferences and working groups to develop these outputs would be valuable in the same way that previous reports published in the lancet have stimulated action on child survival, nutrition, and maternal health through the countdown to 2015. a biennial review of progress towards agreed targets would help to accelerate progress through celebration of success and identifi cation of areas where progress is lagging. * awareness of health risks can have an important role in strengthening carbon mitigation debates and targets. joint statements from national institutes of medicine, representative bodies such as royal colleges, journal editors, organisations such as the climate and health council,175 and university leaders worldwide, drawing upon a growing evidence base, can create a solidarity and authority that politicians will fi nd hard to resist. the priority is to send clear messages to the copenhagen conference in december,
what people like to believe?
i think most people like to believe [that] they don't have that different behavior
what does people go through?
people go through that self-realization that maybe they have been i think that external acknowledgment and a stated desire to want to change that, would be very important to enhancing the diversity
what is mixed-focus group?
mixed focus group; male i mean, i could see the difference between our current chairman versus the previous one [in terms of] approach to perhaps different ethnic groups
it's very interesting to me how unaware we are of some of the things that we do i think most people like to believe [that] they don't have that different behavior. it can be very hard when you identify that and you watch people go through that self-realization that maybe they have been i think that external acknowledgment and a stated desire to want to change that, would be very important to enhancing the diversity. mixed focus group; male i mean, i could see the difference between our current chairman versus the previous one [in terms of] approach to perhaps different ethnic groups. majority male as you go up the pyramid, the people up the pyramid have to be diversified as well. mixed focus group; male we get a very diverse group of patient population coming through this place from all over--rural, urban, black, white, hispanic, educated, non-educated, white collar, blue collar--and you need people who are gonna appreciate that this guy, still has some value and has to be treated in a certain way. urm male
Why in order to appreciate the influence of the threshold term equation (8) must be paired with a model of temporal variability of flood discharge?
however, in order to appreciate the influence of the threshold term equation (8) must be paired with a model of temporal variability of flood discharge because the fraction of time that flows exceed the threshold is a key factor in longterm erosion lague et al. 2005
How did Tucker and Bras [2000], Tucker [2004], and Lague et al. [2005] define Q?
tucker and bras [2000], tucker [2004], and lague et al. [2005] instead defined q as a probability density function pdf q ), and show that the long-term erosion rate e is given by the product of instantaneous incision rate for a given discharge and the probability of a flood of that magnitude, integrated over the full distribution of floods
How is the E in the equation given?
e is given by the product of instantaneous incision rate for a given discharge and the probability of a flood of that magnitude, integrated over the full distribution of floods
if using the assumption of q qb, as done in the standard stream power model, the dynamic impact of including the threshold term becomes absorbed into the constant k ' however, in order to appreciate the influence of the threshold term equation (8) must be paired with a model of temporal variability of flood discharge because the fraction of time that flows exceed the threshold is a key factor in longterm erosion lague et al. 2005; snyder et al. 2003b; tucker 2004]. tucker and bras [2000], tucker [2004], and lague et al. [2005] instead defined q as a probability density function pdf q ), and show that the long-term erosion rate e is given by the product of instantaneous incision rate for a given discharge and the probability of a flood of that magnitude, integrated over the full distribution of floods,
Sensitivity analysis is undefined?
an ample sensitivity analysis has been performed testing results' robustness respect to different model parameterisations
How to Recover Original Values â€‹â€‹undefined
below are reported the outcomes of the sensitivity test over different levels of climate change damage and the discount rate6. 5.1 climate change damage in a first sensitivity test environmental damages are increased (doubled and tripled). as one could expect, both mitigation and adaptation increase (fig. 7 and 8), however mitigation tends to recover the original values as time passes
How to do a sensitivity test?
this depends on the interactions with adaptation. higher damages not only foster adaptation, but also tend to anticipate it (one and two periods respectively); the result is to reduce the need to abate especially in the last periods. on the contrary
an ample sensitivity analysis has been performed testing results' robustness respect to different model parameterisations. below are reported the outcomes of the sensitivity test over different levels of climate change damage and the discount rate6. 5.1 climate change damage in a first sensitivity test environmental damages are increased (doubled and tripled). as one could expect, both mitigation and adaptation increase (fig. 7 and 8), however mitigation tends to recover the original values as time passes. this depends on the interactions with adaptation. higher damages not only foster adaptation, but also tend to anticipate it (one and two periods respectively); the result is to reduce the need to abate especially in the last periods. on the contrary,
When do the radiative forcing trends separate into two?
while the radiative forcing trends were nonlinear in time, they separate into two nearly linear periods: before and after 1950
What are more evenly distributed in the zonal direction at higher levels?
increases are more evenly distributed in the zonal direction at higher levels
When is the oldest reliable data covering several sites with multiple measurements are surface observations from rural locations in the Alps, southern Germany and France taken?
the oldest reliable data covering several sites with multiple measurements are surface observations from rural locations in the alps, southern germany and france taken during the 1930s
while the radiative forcing trends were nonlinear in time, they separate into two nearly linear periods: before and after 1950. thus we focus much of our analysis on trends during the first and second halves of the 20th century. the spatial pattern of ozone changes during these two 50-year periods is shown for the surface, a level near the tropopause, and for the total column in figure 3. the surface shows the most inhomogeneous distribution, with ozone increases clearly localized near industrialized (and to a lesser extent biomass burning) regions, especially during the first half of the century. increases are more evenly distributed in the zonal direction at higher levels, as would be expected from the prevailing circulation and longer chemical timescales at these altitudes. both surface and tropopause level ozone, as well as the column, show the largest increases at northern middle latitudes. over africa, however, the increases are nearly as large all the way to the equator. over the oceans, the increases have been large over the atlantic and especially over the indian ocean, but somewhat smaller over the pacific. little historical ozone data is available against which to evaluate the model simulations. nineteenth century paper-based scho"nbein measurements are unfortunately not quantitatively reliable pavelin et al. 1999]. the oldest reliable data covering several sites with multiple measurements are surface observations from rural locations in the alps, southern germany and france taken during the 1930s staehelin et al. 1994]. averaging together all these 1930s observations yields a surface ozone value of approximately 25 ppbv. averaging together the five grid boxes covering the central european area of observations, the model has 23 ppbv surface level ozone for 1930 conditions. the figure 3. ozone changes before and after 1950. values are presented for (top) the surface level (ppbv), (middle) the level centered around 280 hpa (ppbv), and (bottom) the tropospheric column (du). note that the top two rows share the same color bar and that the scales in the plots on the right are twice those on the left. values at the top right corner of each plot give the global average value in the same units as the plots.
Have social scientists increase or decrease volume of published materials in the scientific literature?
social scientists has led to a growing volume of published materials in the scientific literature
Do indigenous peoples and local communities help scientists with collecting data?
indigenous peoples and local communities offer valuable in situ information
Why are indigenous peoples and local communities important to helping scientists with collecting data?
ar5 is expected to include strengthened content related to indigenous knowledge, and to consider the specific circumstances of vulnerable groups, including indigenous peoples
in recent years, however, collaborative research bringing together indigenous peoples and natural and social scientists has led to a growing volume of published materials in the scientific literature. documentation in grey literature and non-written media has also grown, although these sources have traditionally remained outside the scope of ipcc assessments. all of these efforts have contributed to an increasing realization that the observations and assessments of indigenous peoples and local communities offer valuable in situ information, provide for local verification of global scientific models and satellite data sets, and ensure that adaptation measures align with local needs and priorities. in accordance with caf guiding principles, ar5 is expected to include strengthened content related to indigenous knowledge, and to consider the specific circumstances of vulnerable groups, including indigenous peoples. this publication contributes to this objective, which some have qualified as particularly challenging (ford, vanderbilt and berrang-ford, in press).
What are the integrated view of climate change consider?
an integrated view of climate change considers the dynamics of the complete cycle of interlinked causes and effects across all sectors concerned (see figure spm-1). the tar provides new policy-relevant information and evidence with regard to all quadrants of figure spm-1. a major new contribution of the special report on emissions scenarios (sres) was to explore alternative development paths and related greenhouse gas emissions, and the tar assessed preliminary work on the linkage between adaptation, mitigation, and development paths
Why TAR does not achieve a fully integrated assessment of climate change ?
the tar does not achieve a fully integrated assessment of climate change because of the incomplete state of knowledge
Climate change decision making is essentially what process?
climate change decision making is essentially a sequential process under general uncertainty
an integrated view of climate change considers the dynamics of the complete cycle of interlinked causes and effects across all sectors concerned (see figure spm-1). the tar provides new policy-relevant information and evidence with regard to all quadrants of figure spm-1. a major new contribution of the special report on emissions scenarios (sres) was to explore alternative development paths and related greenhouse gas emissions, and the tar assessed preliminary work on the linkage between adaptation, mitigation, and development paths. however, the tar does not achieve a fully integrated assessment of climate change because of the incomplete state of knowledge. climate change decision making is essentially a sequential process under general uncertainty. decision making has to deal with uncertainties including the risk of non-linear and/ or irreversible changes, entails balancing the risks of either insufficient or excessive action, and involves careful consideration of the consequences (both environmental and economic), their likelihood, and society's attitude towards risk.
Why the climate science involves scientific uncertainty?
uncertainty in climate science derives from the many complex forces that govern the earth's climate, from the axis of the planet's rotation to the changing composition of the atmosphere. although scientists have gained significant insight into how the climate system functions, they do not have 100% confidence in their climate change projections--and they never will
What the scientist can do about climate change projects?
make predictions based on the best available data, quantifying the uncertainties associated with those predictions. several areas of uncertainty exist in climate change prediction. one is due to the lack of complete knowledge of how the climate works, which will lessen with further study
How trustworthy is the traffic forecasts days?
traffic forecasts days into the future may seem hard to trust, as are future climate projections for some people, both are determined by algorithms based on mass data from varying sources. a unique, location-specific model can provide greater accuracy for both traffic and climate scenarios. but with both systems, full certainty comes when it is already too late and one is in a jam
as with other branches of science, climate science involves scientific uncertainty. beyond that, however, uncertainty in climate science derives from the many complex forces that govern the earth's climate, from the axis of the planet's rotation to the changing composition of the atmosphere. although scientists have gained significant insight into how the climate system functions, they do not have 100% confidence in their climate change projections--and they never will. what they can do, however, is make predictions based on the best available data, quantifying the uncertainties associated with those predictions. several areas of uncertainty exist in climate change prediction. one is due to the lack of complete knowledge of how the climate works, which will lessen with further study. other uncertainty is due to natural variability in the climate system, which will not go away. and an additional element of uncertainty is due to the inability to predict human behavior and its cumulative impact on the earth's climate. future climate predictions depend on a number of changing variables in much the same way future traffic predictions do. both systems operate under a certain level of volatility and uncertainty, but that does not prevent either climate scientists or traffic analysts from making forecasts with the information on hand. although traffic forecasts days into the future may seem hard to trust, as are future climate projections for some people, both are determined by algorithms based on mass data from varying sources. a unique, location-specific model can provide greater accuracy for both traffic and climate scenarios. but with both systems, full certainty comes when it is already too late and one is in a jam.
What does "Who" refer to?
the 'who' refers to those that undertake adaptation and includes: individuals; communities; and governments
What does the "What" refer to?
the 'what' addresses the scale of adaptation (local, regional and national), and also the possible extent of adaptation in terms of bio-physical sensitivities and socioeconomic sensitivities
What does the "How" refer to ?
the 'how' examines the resource or capital that is available (financial, human, natural) for adaptation and the approaches (bottom up or top-down) that can be used to respond to climate change
the 'who' refers to those that undertake adaptation and includes: individuals; communities; and governments. communities and governments have a comparative advantage in large-scale adaptation planning processes that require substantial resources over longer time periods. by contrast, individuals are better suited to adjusting to immediate short-run changes or shocks that are within their historical experience. the 'what' addresses the scale of adaptation (local, regional and national), and also the possible extent of adaptation in terms of bio-physical sensitivities and socioeconomic sensitivities. the 'how' examines the resource or capital that is available (financial, human, natural) for adaptation and the approaches (bottom up or top-down) that can be used to respond to climate change.
What is Kyoto?
how climate change was systematically misunderstood 1985 - 2009, and some some consequences arising the "kyoto" approach was constructed by quick borrowing from past practice, with other treaty regimes dealing with ozone, sulphur emissions and nuclear bombs
What is Earth Summit?
it was not unreasonable that hard - pressed officials at the rio "earth summit" in 1992 looked for examples of treaties that had worked - the montreal protocol, the start treaties, the internal us sulphur emission reduction regime - from which to bolt together the skeleton of the radical new attempt to regulate the climate that their political masters had decided they must do
What is the pollution paradigm?
nor was it novel for them to do so: incremental adaption from past successes is what is usually done by diplomats in such circumstances. the task was fitted into what nordhaus and shellenberger called a 'pollution paradigm'. but, in this case, the analogies were structurally unsound
b: how climate change was systematically misunderstood 1985 - 2009, and some some consequences arising the "kyoto" approach was constructed by quick borrowing from past practice, with other treaty regimes dealing with ozone, sulphur emissions and nuclear bombs. it was not unreasonable that hard - pressed officials at the rio "earth summit" in 1992 looked for examples of treaties that had worked - the montreal protocol, the start treaties, the internal us sulphur emission reduction regime - from which to bolt together the skeleton of the radical new attempt to regulate the climate that their political masters had decided they must do. nor was it novel for them to do so: incremental adaption from past successes is what is usually done by diplomats in such circumstances. the task was fitted into what nordhaus and shellenberger called a 'pollution paradigm'. but, in this case, the analogies were structurally unsound.27while superficially plausible, they are not applicable in the ways that the drafters assumed because these were all 'tame' problems (complicated, but with defined and achievable end - states), whereas climate change is 'wicked' (comprising open, complex and imperfectly understood systems). originally described by rittel and webber in the context of urban planning, 'wicked' problems are issues that are often formulated as if they are susceptible to solutions when in fact they are not.28technical knowledge was taken as sufficient basis from which to derive kyoto's policy, whereas 'wicked' problems demand profound understanding of their integration in social systems, their irreducibly complexity and intractable nature. we elaborate this vital contrast below. the consequence of this misunderstanding was that there was a fundamental framing error, and climate change was represented as a conventional environmental 'problem' that is capable of being 'solved'. it is neither of these
For what are the wind-based "raw-damage" values calculated?
these wind-based ''raw-damage'' values are calculated for ecmwf-re-analysis (era40: 1960-2000) uppala et al. 2005] daily maximum wind data (i.e. the maximum out of 4 values per day), accumulated to annual values, and fitted via linear regression to real annual damage values (figures 1 and 2
Via what are the values fitted?
these wind-based ''raw-damage'' values are calculated for ecmwf-re-analysis (era40: 1960-2000) uppala et al. 2005] daily maximum wind data (i.e. the maximum out of 4 values per day), accumulated to annual values, and fitted via linear regression to real annual damage values (figures 1 and 2
The ECMWF-Re-analysis data are used here as what?
the ecmwf-re-analysis data are used here as surrogate for observational data
these wind-based ''raw-damage'' values are calculated for ecmwf-re-analysis (era40: 1960-2000) uppala et al. 2005] daily maximum wind data (i.e. the maximum out of 4 values per day), accumulated to annual values, and fitted via linear regression to real annual damage values (figures 1 and 2). the ecmwf-re-analysis data are used here as surrogate for observational data. the annual sums of insured losses are provided by the gesamtverband der deutschen versicherer (german insurance association, hereafter gdv) for the years from 1970-1999 for germany and for the uk by the association of british insurers (abi) for the period 1988-2003. the resulting regression coefficients are then applied to the climate model data. for the population density data the un 1   1  gridded data were used (available at http://grid2.cr.usgs.gov/metadata/unep/grid/ glpop90.html). normalized values to the amount of insured values are more important than absolute values which are affected, for example, by variable inflation rates. therefore, loss potentials are given in terms of the loss ratio, defined as the ratio between insured claims and totally insured values given in 0.01 c  1/4  per 1000 c  1/4 
What has been shown to be inconsistent with upward trends in the NAM and SAM global modes of variability?
upward trends in these modes have been shown to be inconsistent with simulated internal variability (hegerl et al.2and references cited therein
What are two trends in simulations consistent with the trend in the SAM?
the trend in the sam is consistent with simulated trends in simulations including greenhouse gas increases and stratospheric ozone depletion
Where did the model simulations show positive and negative trends?
however, model simulations can show positive trends in the annular modes at the surface, but negative trends higher in the atmosphere
two of the major global modes of variability are the nam and sam. upward trends in these modes have been shown to be inconsistent with simulated internal variability (hegerl et al.2and references cited therein). while the nam trend is larger than that simulated in many climate model simulations,69the trend in the sam is consistent with simulated trends in simulations including greenhouse gas increases and stratospheric ozone depletion.70however, model simulations can show positive trends in the annular modes at the surface, but negative trends higher in the atmosphere, and it has been argued that anthropogenic circulation changes are poorly characterized by trends in the annular modes.71
Should fear-based appeals be used to effectively communicate the seriousness of our climate change problem?
unlike marketing or health-based approaches that connect on a personal, tangible level, climate change represents a greater communications challenge as it is temporally and spatially remote from the individual. evidence on the effectiveness of fear appeals in the literature appears inconclusive, with relationships observed from a simple linear association between fear and effectiveness to more involved models and theories such as the curvilinear model, parallel processing model, extended parallel processing model, expectancy value model, and protection motivation theory (for a full review, see hastings, stead, webb, 2004; ruiter et al., 2001; witte, 1992). the quantity and somewhat contradictory nature of these theoretical models demonstrate the disparity in research findings investigating the effectiveness of fear appeals
Has there been research regarding fear appeals in it's effectiveness on marketing environmental concerns?
there is much literature examining the impact of fear appeals, especially from the healthand marketing-related disciplines. however, there is little that concentrates on fear appeals in relation to environmental issues. this is an important distinction. macro-environmental issues such as climate change are "wicked issues"--defined by lorenzoni, jones, and turnpenny (2006) as "virtually intractable matters characterized by uncertainty over consequences, diverse and multiple engaged interests, conflicting knowledge claims, and high stakes" (p. 65
Has research been conclusive on the effects of fear appeals marketing for environmental issues?
the quantity and somewhat contradictory nature of these theoretical models demonstrate the disparity in research findings investigating the effectiveness of fear appeals. hastings et al. (2004) question the value of these models based on laboratory experiments where much of the data are obtained using psychology or marketing students as participants when related to a real world, sophisticated, and cluttered communications environment
there is much literature examining the impact of fear appeals, especially from the healthand marketing-related disciplines. however, there is little that concentrates on fear appeals in relation to environmental issues. this is an important distinction. macro-environmental issues such as climate change are "wicked issues"--defined by lorenzoni, jones, and turnpenny (2006) as "virtually intractable matters characterized by uncertainty over consequences, diverse and multiple engaged interests, conflicting knowledge claims, and high stakes" (p. 65). unlike marketing or health-based approaches that connect on a personal, tangible level, climate change represents a greater communications challenge as it is temporally and spatially remote from the individual. evidence on the effectiveness of fear appeals in the literature appears inconclusive, with relationships observed from a simple linear association between fear and effectiveness to more involved models and theories such as the curvilinear model, parallel processing model, extended parallel processing model, expectancy value model, and protection motivation theory (for a full review, see hastings, stead, webb, 2004; ruiter et al., 2001; witte, 1992). the quantity and somewhat contradictory nature of these theoretical models demonstrate the disparity in research findings investigating the effectiveness of fear appeals. hastings et al. (2004) question the value of these models based on laboratory experiments where much of the data are obtained using psychology or marketing students as participants when related to a real world, sophisticated, and cluttered communications environment. only a few
Does Oxfam's study explicitly detail the costs of adaptation for ecosystems?
the world bank (2006), stern review (2006), oxfam (2007) and undp (2007), while mentioning ecosystems briefly in the text, are not explicit about how they have been incorporated into their costing of adaptation, and the unfccc was the only study to provide explicit details of how the costs of adaptation were calculated (berry, 2007
Does land-use change affect natural ecosystems?
indeed this is very difficult as any land-use change as a consequence of adaptation (or mitigation) will affect natural ecosystems, but they could interact synergistically or antagonistically (berry et al., 2008; paterson et al., 2008
Did all studies explicitly consider ecosystems?
a further issue is that none of the studies, except unfccc, explicitly considered marine ecosystems
the world bank (2006), stern review (2006), oxfam (2007) and undp (2007), while mentioning ecosystems briefly in the text, are not explicit about how they have been incorporated into their costing of adaptation, and the unfccc was the only study to provide explicit details of how the costs of adaptation were calculated (berry, 2007). this raises the issue of costing adaptation and whether it is purely associated with the existence of current and future ecosystems and their component biodiversity or whether ecosystem services are included, either within natural ecosystems or separate from them. this is important if double counting is to be avoided. indeed this is very difficult as any land-use change as a consequence of adaptation (or mitigation) will affect natural ecosystems, but they could interact synergistically or antagonistically (berry et al., 2008; paterson et al., 2008). for example, wetland re-creation as a flood management adaptation also would be an appropriate adaptation measure for ecosystems, whereas hard coastal defences are an option for adaptation to coastal flooding, but they constrain ecosystems' autonomous adaptation. a further issue is that none of the studies, except unfccc, explicitly considered marine ecosystems.
What effect may urbanization have that exacerbates drying trends?
regional warming (heat islands
What effect of climate change may cause resettlement or forced migration from cities such as Buenos Aires, Shanghai, Jakarta, Tokyo, and New York City?
sea level rise
today, environmental change including climate change contributes to human mobility embedded in linked environmental and social processes.4 social system characteristics including social networks play a mediating role in how environmental change affects whether people move away or stay at home.5 migration can represent a response to changing environmental and economic conditions, such as a farmer's choice to migrate due to failing crops and insecure livelihood prospects. migration can also exacerbate environmental and economic problems in receiving areas. for example, urban areas attract migrants seeking better lives. high in-migration contributes to crowding and environmental/ sanitation issues in slums. studies also point towards urbanization as a force driving regional warming (heat islands) which can exacerbate drying trends, among other problems.6 some of these cities, such as dhaka, buenos aires, rio de janeiro, shanghai and tianjin, alexandria and cairo, mumbai and kolkata, jakarta, tokyo and osaka-kobe, lagos, bangkok, new york city, and los angeles, are located in areas exposed to sea level rise. sea level rise could motivate resettlement, forced migration, or other forms of human mobility.7
What does to be defined in order to calculate to concentration of the constituent in the reactor?
in order to calculate the concentration of the constituent in the reactor it is necessary to define the hydraulic model to be attributed to it
What is a hydraulic model?
the hydraulic model of the reactor is a function of the type of flow and the mixing pattern in the unit
What is the mixing pattern in the unit within the hydraulic model?
the mixing pattern depends on the physical geometry of the reactor, the quantity of energy introduced per unit volume, the size or scale of the unit and other factors. in terms of flow, there are the following two conditions
after the reaction rates are known (section 8.2) and the mass balances have been established (section 8.3), in order to calculate the concentration of the constituent in the reactor it is necessary to define the hydraulic model to be attributed to it. the hydraulic model of the reactor is a function of the type of flow and the mixing pattern in the unit. the mixing pattern depends on the physical geometry of the reactor, the quantity of energy introduced per unit volume, the size or scale of the unit and other factors. in terms of flow, there are the following two conditions:
How the production function valuing on the climate chnge?
the production function approach relies on experimental evidence of the effect of temperature and precipitation on agricultural yields. the appealing feature of the experimental design is that it provides estimates of the effect of weather on the yields of specific crops that are purged of bias due to determinants of agricultural output that are beyond farmers' control (e.g., soil quality
How the farmers' compensatory responses to changes in climate?
in the short run, farmers may respond by increasing the flow of irrigated water or altering fertilizer usage to mitigate the loss in rainfall. in the medium run, farmers can choose to plant different crops that require less precipitation. and in the long run, farmers can convert their land into housing developments, golf courses, or some other purpose. since even short run farmer adaptations are not allowed in the production function approach, it produces estimates of climate change that are downward biased
Who proposed the hedonic approach and how does it work?
in an influential paper, mendelsohn, nordhaus, and shaw (mns) proposed the hedonic approach in an influential paper, mendelsohn, nordhaus, and shaw (mns) proposed the hedonic approach as a solution to the production function's shortcomings (mns 1994). the hedonic method aims to measure the impact of climate change by directly estimating the effect of temperature and precipitation on the value of agricultural land. its appeal is that if land markets are operating properly, prices will reflect the present discounted value of land rents into the infinite future. mns write the following about the hedonic approach: instead of studying yields of specific crops, we examine how climate in different places affects the net rent or value of farmland. by directly measuring farm prices or revenues, we account for the direct impacts of climate on yields of different crops as well as the indirect substitution of different inputs, of different activities, and other potential adaptations to different climates (p. 755, 1994
a. production function and hedonic approaches to valuing climate change 3 3 the production function approach relies on experimental evidence of the effect of temperature and precipitation on agricultural yields. the appealing feature of the experimental design is that it provides estimates of the effect of weather on the yields of specific crops that are purged of bias due to determinants of agricultural output that are beyond farmers' control (e.g., soil quality). consequently, it is straightforward to use the results of these experiments to estimate the impacts of a given change in temperature or precipitation. its disadvantage is that the experimental estimates are obtained in a laboratory setting and do not account for profit maximizing farmers' compensatory responses to changes in climate. as an illustration, consider a permanent and unexpected decline in precipitation. in the short run, farmers may respond by increasing the flow of irrigated water or altering fertilizer usage to mitigate the loss in rainfall. in the medium run, farmers can choose to plant different crops that require less precipitation. and in the long run, farmers can convert their land into housing developments, golf courses, or some other purpose. since even short run farmer adaptations are not allowed in the production function approach, it produces estimates of climate change that are downward biased. for this reason, it is sometimes referred to as the "dumb-farmer scenario." in an influential paper, mendelsohn, nordhaus, and shaw (mns) proposed the hedonic approach in an influential paper, mendelsohn, nordhaus, and shaw (mns) proposed the hedonic approach as a solution to the production function's shortcomings (mns 1994). the hedonic method aims to measure the impact of climate change by directly estimating the effect of temperature and precipitation on the value of agricultural land. its appeal is that if land markets are operating properly, prices will reflect the present discounted value of land rents into the infinite future. mns write the following about the hedonic approach: instead of studying yields of specific crops, we examine how climate in different places affects the net rent or value of farmland. by directly measuring farm prices or revenues, we account for the direct impacts of climate on yields of different crops as well as the indirect substitution of different inputs, of different activities, and other potential adaptations to different climates (p. 755, 1994). thus the hedonic approach promises an estimate of the effect of climate change that accounts for the compensatory behavior that undermines the production function approach. to successfully implement the hedonic approach, it is necessary to obtain consistent estimates of the independent influence of climate on land values and this requires that all unobserved determinants of land values are orthogonal to climate.4 we demonstrate below that temperature and precipitation normals
What is the composition of water usage in Netherlands?
people in the netherlands use about 2300 m3of water per person per year of which 67 is for agriculture, 31 is used in industry, while only 2 makes up household water
Who should act on water challenges?
water challenges in cities need to be solved predominantly by actors outside the traditional water sector
What happens to used water  from households and industries?
nearly all water used for domestic and industrial purposes is eventually returned to a water body
drinking water consumption in cities makes up a small fraction of the total water footprint. for example, people in the netherlands use about 2300 m3of water per person per year of which 67 is for agriculture, 31 is used in industry, while only 2 makes up household water (van oel et al. 2009 ). this means that water challenges in cities need to be solved predominantly by actors outside the traditional water sector. in fact, half of all cities with populations greater than 100,000 are located in water-scarce basins. in these basins, agricultural water consumption accounts for more than 90 of all freshwater depletions (hunger and do"ll 2008 richter et al. 2013 ). in a critical analysis, richter et al. 2013 point out that nearly all water used for domestic and industrial purposes is eventually returned to a water body. for instance, toilets are flushed and purified wastewater as well as cooling water in power plants is often returned to rivers. because much of this
Name the two main gradients and its species and temperature distribution extracted from OMI.
omi extracted two main gradients explaining over 93% of species niche separation (table 1). the first axis, explaining 80% of the total variation in species distributions, captured a temperature gradient running from the northeast to the southwest, parallel to the atlantic coast. the second gradient, explaining 13% of the variation, represented changes in seasonal and annual precipitation
Define the variation of score of OMI.
score variation along the second axis highlighted regional differences in moisture availability from dry (e.g. eastern coast of spain) to wet (e.g. northwest of the iberian peninsula) regions
Find the low and high scores of  OMI axes.
the mediterranean region had a high score for the first omi axis (high temperature) and generally low scores for the second axis (low precipitation
omi extracted two main gradients explaining over 93% of species niche separation (table 1). the first axis, explaining 80% of the total variation in species distributions, captured a temperature gradient running from the northeast to the southwest, parallel to the atlantic coast. the second gradient, explaining 13% of the variation, represented changes in seasonal and annual precipitation. for example, the mediterranean region had a high score for the first omi axis (high temperature) and generally low scores for the second axis (low precipitation). score variation along the second axis highlighted regional differences in moisture availability from dry (e.g. eastern coast of spain) to wet (e.g. northwest of the iberian peninsula) regions.
what are the damage caused by prolonged weather condition on rain season?
prolonged hot and dry weather during the rain season the damage caused by this weather condition depends on the part of the crop growing season it would have occurred. if such conditions are experienced during the early stages of the rain season, they mainly affect the farmers' ability to meet the planting deadlines and cause poor crop germination
what happens when crop production falls?
the fall in crop production leads to household food insecurity that is associated with a sharp rise in food prices until the next good harvests. this happens at a time that most households would have failed to raise household incomes through selling agricultural products and poverty levels increase dramatically
What are the main impact?
the main impact is the existence of very weak draught animals at the onset of the rain season. the overall livelihood impacts of extreme weather conditions on smallholder farmers, therefore, include sale of assets, indebtedness, outmigration, and dependency on food relief
prolonged hot and dry weather during the rain season the damage caused by this weather condition depends on the part of the crop growing season it would have occurred. if such conditions are experienced during the early stages of the rain season, they mainly affect the farmers' ability to meet the planting deadlines and cause poor crop germination. mid-season, prolonged dry spells, stress crops through wilting and may promote the occurrence of insect pests, such as armyworms. murowa ward is already a drought-prone area but the farmers indicated that dry spells have become more frequent and devastating in recent years. overall, agricultural productivity hinges on whether there has not been a prolonged dry condition in the area during the crop growing season, since farming is mainly rain fed. the fall in crop production leads to household food insecurity that is associated with a sharp rise in food prices until the next good harvests. this happens at a time that most households would have failed to raise household incomes through selling agricultural products and poverty levels increase dramatically. a poor rainfall season results in very poor pastures during the dry season, affecting the condition of their livestock, particularly cattle. the main impact is the existence of very weak draught animals at the onset of the rain season. the overall livelihood impacts of extreme weather conditions on smallholder farmers, therefore, include sale of assets, indebtedness, outmigration, and dependency on food relief.
For what purpose the ?third 12-mm-diameter core was used
the third 12-mm-diameter core was used to generate sapwood moisture release and capacitance curves and to measure acoustic emissions during dehydration
How Moisture release and capacitance measurements are made?
moisture release and capacitance measurements were made on a 10-mm-long segment (radial direction) cut from a 12mmlong segment per tree that came from the location corresponding to previously observed and published regions of peak sap flow
the third 12-mm-diameter core was used to generate sapwood moisture release and capacitance curves and to measure acoustic emissions during dehydration. moisture release and capacitance measurements were made on a 10-mm-long segment (radial direction) cut from a 12mmlong segment per tree that came from the location corresponding to previously observed and published regions of peak sap flow. the remaining 2 mm segment (a disc) was used for acoustic emissions (see further discussion). the peak of sap flow for pines, including ponderosa pine, occurs about one third of the distance inward from the cambium to the heartwood-sapwood boundary (ford et al 2004a,b; meinzer 2010).the peak of sap flow in douglas-fir typically occurs immediately inward from the cambium (domec et al 2006a). the moisture release/capacitance samples were vacuuminfiltrated overnight with the perfusion solution described above. the samples were then removed from the solution and segment volume was estimated using the immersion method. next, the samples were blotted with a paper towel to remove excess water, weighed and placed into the caps of screen-cage thermocouple psychrometer chambers (83 series; jrd merrill specialty equipment, logan, ut, usa). the cap was then joined with the chamber and sealed tightly. all psychrometer chambers were placed inside nested polyethylene plastic bags, which were submerged in an insulated water bath for 2 h to allow equilibration. following equilibration, a 12-channel digital psychrometer meter (85 series; jrd merrill specialty equipment) was used for determination of water release isotherms. measurements were recorded every 20 min until water potential values stabilized. the samples were then removed from the chambers, weighed and allowed to partially air-dry. air-drying intervals were set in accordance with the rate at which water evaporated from the samples, based on measurements of mass. as the samples approached the presumed inflection point of the moisture release curves, we shortened the intervals between sampling in an effort to clearly define the shape of the curve. following the drying periods, samples were resealed into their chambers and the entire procedure was repeated until water potential readings reached about 4 mpa. we then removed the samples and placed them in a drying oven overnight at 70 degc for determination of oven dry mass and calculation of sample density (as dry mass per green volume). recorded psychrometer values were transformed to water potential values based on calibration curves of solutions of known water potential. relative water content (rwc) was then estimated for each sample at each recorded mass by the following equation
What did calculation of future methane concentrations without considering climate changes result in?
an overestimate of 420 ppbv in the concentration by 2100
What does the negative climate change feedback for the latter part of this century indicate?
that current estimates of the buildup of methane and tropospheric ozone to 2100 may be greatly overestimated
Where can one find a source of uncertainty?
in the parameterisation of the ozone input from the stratosphere at the top of the model domain
calculation of future methane concentrations without considering climate changes resulted in an overestimate of 420 ppbv in the concentration by 2100. this change was brought about by significant differences in the methane lifetime between the two experiments after 2025. globally averaged tropospheric ozone in the 2090s was decreased by around 8 ppbv by the effect of climate change mainly through reduction of the net production of ozone in the model. the negative climate change feedback shown here for the latter part of this century indicates that current estimates of the buildup of methane and tropospheric ozone to 2100 may be greatly overestimated. the role of climate change on natural emissions, including those of methane itself was not considered here, and for example, the nox source from lightning represents a positive feedback between climate change and ozone toumi et al, 1996] that could affect these conclusions. another source of uncertainty is in the parameterisation of the ozone input from the stratosphere at the top of the model domain. this does not include any feedback between dynamics and ozone concentrations, and further work is needed to improve understanding
What are the scientific and environmental implications of climate change?
hese companies endorsed a series of newspaper advertisements stating that they 'accept the views of most scientists that enough is known about the science and environmental impacts of climate change for us to take actions to address its consequences' (cushman, 1998). business sectors associated with low carbon technologies have become stronger economically, and have increasingly exerted their collective voice
Have the business sectors associated with carbon technologies become economically strong?
the bcse, for example, which has aeiliates in the usa and europe, represents insulation manufacturers and the fragmented renewable energy sector, comprising many small companies active in solar and wind energy. increasingly, however, it has attracted larger companies engaged in natural gas and electronic controls, including honeywell, enron, and maytag. environmental activists and ngos have played an active role trymg to broaden the alliance of industries supportive of emission controls
Explain the set of Jeremy Leggett Bank and insurance companies of International?
whose assets could be at increased risk from climate-related property damage (tucker, 1997). leggett has been instrumental in educating insurance companies about the potential risks and has successfully worked with some of them to take a more active role in the international climate negotiations (leggett, 1999). it would be overstating the case, however, to suggest that environmental ngos have successfully played the role of gramsci's modern prince, tightly coordinating their strategic moves to outmanoeuvre their industry adversaries. rather, the original historical bloc, facing loosely coordinated opposition and a series of pressures on a number of fronts, became unstable and in danger of collapsing like a house of cards. the gcc was weakened by a series of defections: bp left in late 1997, shell in 1998, and ford
these companies endorsed a series of newspaper advertisements stating that they 'accept the views of most scientists that enough is known about the science and environmental impacts of climate change for us to take actions to address its consequences' (cushman, 1998). business sectors associated with low carbon technologies have become stronger economically, and have increasingly exerted their collective voice. the bcse, for example, which has aeiliates in the usa and europe, represents insulation manufacturers and the fragmented renewable energy sector, comprising many small companies active in solar and wind energy. increasingly, however, it has attracted larger companies engaged in natural gas and electronic controls, including honeywell, enron, and maytag. environmental activists and ngos have played an active role trymg to broaden the alliance of industries supportive of emission controls. of particular note have been the efforts of jeremy leggett, formerly of greenpeace international, to gain the support of banking and insurance companies, whose assets could be at increased risk from climate-related property damage (tucker, 1997). leggett has been instrumental in educating insurance companies about the potential risks and has successfully worked with some of them to take a more active role in the international climate negotiations (leggett, 1999). it would be overstating the case, however, to suggest that environmental ngos have successfully played the role of gramsci's modern prince, tightly coordinating their strategic moves to outmanoeuvre their industry adversaries. rather, the original historical bloc, facing loosely coordinated opposition and a series of pressures on a number of fronts, became unstable and in danger of collapsing like a house of cards. the gcc was weakened by a series of defections: bp left in late 1997, shell in 1998, and ford
Name the three critical dimensions of preparedness?
the framework presented suggests three critical dimensions of preparedness - awareness of climate-related risks, analytic capacity to translate such climate risks information into specific planning and management activities, and the extent of actions taken to address the risks
What must the resource managers do more effectively for California to realize its significant adaptive capacity?
our analysis suggests that for california to realize its significant adaptive capacity and be able to manage the unavoidable impacts of climate change, resource managers need to be engaged more effectively in future discussions of managing climate risks in the state
Which are the primary sectors to be affected by the climate change?
it is now evident that the climate is changing in ways that pose risks to health, economy, and environments around the globe
in this paper we propose a framework for evaluating how prepared california resource managers are for risks of continued climate change. the framework presented suggests three critical dimensions of preparedness - awareness of climate-related risks, analytic capacity to translate such climate risks information into specific planning and management activities, and the extent of actions taken to address the risks. we illustrate the application of this framework in this paper through preliminary research of california coastal managers where we identify limited awareness of climate-change related risks, limited analytic capacity and significant constraints on the abilities of institutions and individuals to take adaptation actions. our analysis suggests that for california to realize its significant adaptive capacity and be able to manage the unavoidable impacts of climate change, resource managers need to be engaged more effectively in future discussions of managing climate risks in the state. 1 it is now evident that the climate is changing in ways that pose risks to health, economy, and environments around the globe. society ' s and the environment ' s ability to cope with climate impacts depends in important ways on the pace and magnitude of global climate change, thus continuing to require substantial mitigation efforts. however, because society is already facing risks associated with climate variability at present, the first signs of change are already being observed, and further impacts over the next 30 years are unavoidable due to the emissions already released into the atmosphere, adaptation is increasingly recognized
What is a Pareto optimal position?
will reach a pareto optimal position, which is one where it is impossible to make anybody 'better off' without somebody being made worse off
What does a favorable CBA tell us?
but a favourable cba only tells one that there is scope for a potential pareto optimising move, for it must be theoretically possible for the beneficiaries to compensate the losers and still remain better off
What is a CBA?
a cost-benefit analysis (cba
the standard micro-economic model of the economy, built on parsimonious assumptions, enables one to identify the conditions under which an economy will reach a pareto optimal position, which is one where it is impossible to make anybody 'better off' without somebody being made worse off. on the face of it, this looks like a fairly compelling principle, although there are several well-known limitations that need not detain us here. subject to these limitations, the scope for any project to help move the economy towards a pareto optimum can be measured in a cost-benefit analysis (cba). but a favourable cba only tells one that there is scope for a potential pareto optimising move, for it must be theoretically possible for the beneficiaries to compensate the losers and still remain better off.4
What is the benefit of implementing a fixed (Solow) savings rate of 25.8% in all regions and all time periods?
this has the large benefit of simplifying the optimization algorithm. furthermore, it can be also be interpreted as the optimal savings rate of private savers with a time-separable and discounted objective with a logarithmic utility function
Is capital depreciation decadized arithmetically or geometrically in the original and new models?
capital depreciation, which is 10% per annum in rice2010, is decadized arithmetically (rather than geometrically as in the original model) to full depreciation
What is the per annum capital depreciation in RICE2010?
capital depreciation, which is 10% per annum in rice2010
we implement a fixed (solow) savings rate of 25.8% in all regions and all time periods. this has the large benefit of simplifying the optimization algorithm. furthermore, it can be also be interpreted as the optimal savings rate of private savers with a time-separable and discounted objective with a logarithmic utility function.++++++++capital depreciation, which is 10% per annum in rice2010, is decadized arithmetically (rather than geometrically as in the original model) to full depreciation. combined with logarithmic utility (of the private savers, not the social planner), it can be shown (see ref. 36) that the resulting endogenous savings rate of an infinitely lived agent is given by sit g d 1 d th10. here g is the capital share in the cobb - douglas production function, and d is the annual pure rate of time preference of the representative agent ' s objective. when g 0.3 and d 1.5%, sit 25.8%.
The Kyoto Protocol employs the measurement of emissions based on?
the un fccc methodology
It takes a geographical approach to emissions responsibility?
all (and only) emissions generated from production activities within a country's territory are attributable to that country's emissions total
And since, as we shall see, it is?
it does not, kyoto is (perhaps fatally) flawed
the kyoto protocol employs the measurement of emissions based on the un fccc methodology. it takes a geographical approach to emissions responsibility--all (and only) emissions generated from production activities within a country's territory are attributable to that country's emissions total. and, as noted above, the un fccc approach is not comprehensive: among other things, it excludes aviation and shipping. from this accounting methodology, the kyoto targets follow. if the methodology fails to provide an appropriate basis for the assignment of responsibility between national states then any agreement based upon this foundation is unlikely to prove credible. and since, as we shall see, it does not, kyoto is (perhaps fatally) flawed.
What is occurring in the Arctic?
the arctic is warming more rapidly than lower latitudes owing to climate amplification involving temperature, water vapour, albedo and sea ice feedbacks
How are tundra ecosystems predicted to respond to climate change?
tundra ecosystems are thus predicted to respond more rapidly to climate change than other terrestrial ecosystems
What is the tundra biome?
the tundra biome spans arctic and alpine regions that have similar plant species pools and mean climates, yet vary in topography, seasonality, land cover and glaciation history
the arctic is warming more rapidly than lower latitudes owing to climate amplification involving temperature, water vapour, albedo and sea ice feedbacks5,7. tundra ecosystems are thus predicted to respond more rapidly to climate change than other terrestrial ecosystems4. the tundra biome spans arctic and alpine regions that have similar plant species pools and mean climates, yet vary in topography, seasonality, land cover and glaciation history. concurrent with the recent high-latitude warming trend7, repeat photography and vegetation surveys have shown widespread expansion of shrubs1-3, characterized by increased canopy cover, height and abundance. however, climate warming7and shrub increase2,10have not occurred at all sites. models predict that warming of 2-10c (ref. 11) could convert as much as half of current tundra to 'shrubland' by the end of the twenty-first century8, but the uniformity of the frequently cited relationship between climate
This study access what kind of activities?
this study instead assesses activities affected by climate risks on the basis of crs purpose codes
In reality, there is a wide spectrum of exposure to climate risks even within particular sectors.Give an example ?
for instance, rain-fed agriculture projects may be much more vulnerable than projects in areas with reliable irrigation. at the same time, the irrigation systems themselves may also be at risk, further complicating the picture
How to calculate the share of development activities affected by climate change?
to capture some of the uncertainty inherent in the sectoral classification, the share of development activities affected by climate change was calculated in two ways, a rather broad selection, and a more restrictive one
in principle, the sectoral selection should include all development activities that may be designed differently depending on whether or not climate risks are taken into account. in that sense, the label "affected by climate risks" has two dimensions. it includes projects that are at risk themselves, such as an investment that could be destroyed by flooding. but it also includes projects that affect the vulnerability of other natural or human systems. for instance, new roads might be fully weatherproof from an engineering standpoint (even for climatic conditions in the far future), but they may also trigger new settlements in high-risk areas, or it may have a negative effect on the resilience of the natural environment, thus exposing the area to increased climate risks. these considerations should be taken into account in project design and implementation. hence, these projects are also affected by climate risks. a comprehensive evaluation of the extent to which development activities are affected by climate change would require detailed assessments of all relevant development projects as well as analysis of site specific climate change impacts, which was beyond the scope of this analysis. this study instead assesses activities affected by climate risks on the basis of crs purpose codes (see appendix b, which identifies "the specific area of the recipient's economic or social structure which the transfer is intended to foster")11, 12. clearly, any classification that is based solely on sectors suffers from oversimplification. in clearly, any classification that is based solely on sectors suffers from oversimplification. in reality, there is a wide spectrum of exposure to climate risks even within particular sectors. for instance, rain-fed agriculture projects may be much more vulnerable than projects in areas with reliable irrigation. at the same time, the irrigation systems themselves may also be at risk, further complicating the picture. similarly, most education projects would hardly be affected by climatic circumstances, but school buildings in flood-prone areas may well be at risk. without an in-depth examination of risks to individual projects, it is impossible to capture such differences. hence, the sectoral classification only provides a rough first sense about the share of development activities that may be affected by climate risks. to capture some of the uncertainty inherent in the sectoral classification, the share of to capture some of the uncertainty inherent in the sectoral classification, the share of development activities affected by climate change was calculated in two ways, a rather broad selection, and a more restrictive one. the first selection includes projects dealing with infectious diseases, water supply 11 each activity can be assigned only one such code; projects spanning several sectors are listed under a multi-sector code, or in the sector corresponding to the largest component.
What pollutes simulated response patterns?
model-simulated response patterns are contaminated by noise from natural internal variability
What makes model-simulated patterns different?
this can be reduced by making ensembles of simulations, each starting from different initial conditions, and averaging them
What is the truth of model-simulation?
the model-simulated responses from a finite ensemble, xi, must differ from the underlying noise-free response that would be obtained from a hypothetical infinite ensemble
however model-simulated response patterns are contaminated by noise from natural internal variability. this can be reduced by making ensembles of simulations, each starting from different initial conditions, and averaging them. nevertheless contamination by noise remains; the model-simulated patterns are different from the ''true'' model patterns of response that would be obtained from averaging an infinitely large ensemble of simulations. here we apply total least squares (tls) regression, which takes into account the fact that the model-simulated responses from a finite ensemble, xi, must differ from the underlying noise-free response that would be obtained from a hypothetical infinite ensemble. an additional noise term, ui, is included in the expression, and the observations are represented more accurately by
When were the interviews conducted?
interviews were conducted post-flood and no pre-flood baseline data was available with which to compare the post-flood results. in some cases data collection was more than a year after the flood event. one study conducted a telephone survey 5 years post flood event
What are the recommendations for the design of epidemiological studies that investigate the health impacts of floods?
 control groups for comparison with non-flooded populations. * use of longitudinal data, or routine data in order to gain information on pre-flood levels of disease at individual or population level. * use of objective measures of disease outcome, where possible * improved use of routine surveillance information priorities for future research include: * the impacts of flooding on long-term mental health in both north and south. * impact of flooding and heavy rainfall on diarrhoeal disease, and the main routes of transmission (e.g. flood waters or hygiene). * indirect mortality attributable to flooding (in addition to immediate deaths from drowning). * impacts on health from the disruption of health services and other lifesupporting systems in low income countries
Why there is the recommendation of using longitudinal data, or routine data?
in order to gain information on pre-flood levels of disease at individual or population level
most studies were retrospective in nature. interviews were conducted post-flood and no pre-flood baseline data was available with which to compare the post-flood results. in some cases data collection was more than a year after the flood event. one study conducted a telephone survey 5 years post flood event. we therefore make the following recommendations for the design of epidemiological studies that investigate the health impacts of floods: * control groups for comparison with non-flooded populations. * use of longitudinal data, or routine data in order to gain information on pre-flood levels of disease at individual or population level. * use of objective measures of disease outcome, where possible * improved use of routine surveillance information priorities for future research include: * the impacts of flooding on long-term mental health in both north and south. * impact of flooding and heavy rainfall on diarrhoeal disease, and the main routes of transmission (e.g. flood waters or hygiene). * indirect mortality attributable to flooding (in addition to immediate deaths from drowning). * impacts on health from the disruption of health services and other lifesupporting systems in low income countries.
Why would not the bottom of the pond be a more favorable environment for photosynthesis to occur?
deeper down in the pond, light penetration is smaller, which causes the predominance of the oxygen consumption (respiration) over its production (photosynthesis), with the occasional absence of dissolved oxygen from a certain depth
At what time does photosynthesis occur?
photosynthesis only occurs during the day (sunshine hours
What equipment is needed for an Facultative ponds?
the process of facultative ponds is essentially natural and does not need any equipment
respiration: organic matter o2 - co2 h2o energy for the occurrence of photosynthesis, a source of light energy is necessary, in this case, represented by the sun. for this reason, localities with high solar radiation and a low level of cloudiness are highly favourable for facultative ponds. since photosynthesis depends on solar energy, it reaches higher levels close to the pond surface. deeper down in the pond, light penetration is smaller, which causes the predominance of the oxygen consumption (respiration) over its production (photosynthesis), with the occasional absence of dissolved oxygen from a certain depth. besides, photosynthesis only occurs during the day (sunshine hours), and during the night, the absence of oxygen can prevail. because of these facts, it is essential that there are several groups of bacteria, responsible for the stabilisation of the organic matter, which can survive and proliferate in the presence as well as in the absence of oxygen. in the absence of free oxygen, other electron acceptors are used, such as nitrates (anoxic conditions). this zone, where facultative ponds 505 the presence or the absence of oxygen can occur, is called a facultative zone this condition also gives the name to the ponds (facultative ponds). as commented, the process of facultative ponds is essentially natural and does not need any equipment. for this reason, the stabilisation of the organic matter takes place at slow rates, implying the need of a high detention time in the pond (usually greater than 20 days). photosynthesis, to be effective, requires a high exposure area for the best use of the solar energy by the algae, justifying the need of large units. consequently, the total area required by facultative ponds is the largest amongst all the wastewater treatment processes (excluding land disposal systems). on the other hand, the fact that they are a natural process is associated with a larger operational simplicity, which is a factor of fundamental importance in developing countries. the effluent from a facultative pond has the following main characteristics (cetesb, 1989):
What was this study designed to assess?
this study was designed to longitudinally assess how the family emotional climate, defined by maternal depression, and children's attachment security at age 2 affected the content of mother-child conversations about emotions and children's emotion understanding at age 3 within a high risk sample of children
What do results suggest?
results suggest that secure attachment relationships may be related to emotion understanding by facilitating mother-child discussions of emotion
What do these findings have implications for?
these findings have implications for understanding normative developments in emotion understanding, and they also elucidate the ways in which growing up in a high risk family make the process of learning about emotions more challenging
this study was designed to longitudinally assess how the family emotional climate, defined by maternal depression, and children's attachment security at age 2 affected the content of mother-child conversations about emotions and children's emotion understanding at age 3 within a high risk sample of children. there were two main conclusions that emerged from this study. first, attachment security, measured when children were 2 years old, was a strong and reliable predictor of mother-child references to emotion, which in turn was positively associated with children's emotion understanding at age 3. results suggest that secure attachment relationships may be related to emotion understanding by facilitating mother-child discussions of emotion. second, family emotional climate is an important contributor to children's emotion understanding, and operates independently of the dyadic processes of mother-child conversational content or children's attachment security. children who are exposed to intense and pervasive negative affect in the home through conditions like maternal depression may have difficulty understanding emotions. these findings have implications for understanding normative developments in emotion understanding, and they also elucidate the ways in which growing up in a high risk family make the process of learning about emotions more challenging. first, while previous studies have found that attachment security is related to children's skills in emotion identification (de rosnay harris, 2002; laible thompson, 1998; ontai thompson, 2002), no research to date has specifically examined the association between 2-year-old children's attachment security and mother-child references to emotion in conversation one year later. the longitudinal nature of the present study suggests that attachment security promotes mother-child references to emotion, which in turn are related to skills in emotion understanding. previous research has reported that securely attached children show advanced social cognitive development, and that mothers of securely attached children discuss mental states more frequently with them, which could be partially responsible for this association (meins, fernyhough, russell, clark-carter, 1998). the findings reported here are consistent with the greater 'open communication' believed to be shared by securely attached children with their parents, and support hypotheses posed by harris (1999) that secure attachment relationships promote emotion understanding by enhancing children's abilities to construct coherent accounts of emotional events. indeed, our findings confirm these theoretical views by showing, for the first time, that the effects of attachment security on children's emotion understanding were mediated through the association between security of attachment and mother-child references to emotion. while post hoc testing indicated that these effects were only marginally significant, the
What is an international response to poverty alleviation in developing countries?
at the international level, realization of the millennium development goals (mdgs) is the most prominent issue on the development agenda at the moment
How does climate change affect the goal of poverty alleviation?
climate change is threatening the realization of these policy objectives, because the poor are among the most vulnerable to climate change
What can be done to simultaneously aid climate change efforts poverty alleviation efforts?
improved access to clean energy will help local development and reduce health problems from indoor air pollution caused by traditional fuel use
poverty alleviation is a core objective for national governments in developing countries. at the international level, realization of the millennium development goals (mdgs) is the most prominent issue on the development agenda at the moment. climate change is threatening the realization of these policy objectives, because the poor are among the most vulnerable to climate change. improved access to clean energy will help local development and reduce health problems from indoor air pollution caused by traditional fuel use. so, poor people can benefit most from mainstreaming climate change into development policy (see also jerneck and olsson, 2008; o'brien et al., 2008).
What does the Kyoto Protocol envisage?
there have been attempts--eg, by the working group on public health and fossil fuel combustion25--to estimate the global health benefi t of reduced exposure to outdoor air pollution from particulates under a mitigation scenario such as that envisaged under the kyoto protocol
What proportion of people living near wind turbines are annoyed by the noise they produce?
a small proportion (less than 5%) of people living near wind turbines are annoyed by the noise
What will improve greater interactivity of end users with the grid?
smart grids will enable use of centralised generation along with regional and smaller dispersed energy generation with renewables and combined heat and power, and permit greater interactivity of end users with the grid
there have been attempts--eg, by the working group on public health and fossil fuel combustion25--to estimate the global health benefi t of reduced exposure to outdoor air pollution from particulates under a mitigation scenario such as that envisaged under the kyoto protocol. such an approach involved several simplifying assumptions and the resulting estimates of avoided deaths should be seen as indicative of the approximate contribution of mitigation policies to improving health. several other studies have estimated the secondary benefi ts of reducing air pollution as a result of reductions in fossil-fuel emissions.26 the degree of health benefi t will depend markedly on the trajectory of emissions reduction which is followed, relevant diff erences between the current source of energy and the alternative, and the baseline level of air pollution. for example, switching from combustion of natural gas to wind or solar power would have little eff ect on air pollution despite reducing greenhouse-gas emissions whereas a switch from coal would have a major eff ect. direct health benefi ts as a result of reduced air pollution will be particularly large where that pollution occurs in close proximity to human beings, thereby causing high exposure--eg, in households. renewable energy technologies, such as solar thermal, geothermal, solar photovoltaic, and wind, seem to have few or no adverse consequences for health and great potential for benefi t. however, a small proportion (less than 5%) of people living near wind turbines are annoyed by the noise. annoyance correlates with decibel level, is more common in rural than in urban areas, and is more likely where terrain is hilly or rocky.27 smart grids will enable use of centralised generation along with regional and smaller dispersed energy generation with renewables and combined heat and power, and permit greater interactivity of end users with the grid. they are the subject of much research, including a major programme
What is the information provided by watershed vulnerability assessment needed for?
watershed vulnerability assessment provides watershed-specific information needed to prioritize and design strategies for reducing the effects of climate change on watershed-sourced goods and services
What does watershed vulnerability assessment incorporates a large amount of data on?
watershed vulnerability assessment incorporates a large amount of data on existing species population status, location, and distribution of key habitats, and projected changes in stream temperatures, low flows, peak flows, and disturbance regimes
What can local managers and field specialists identify?
local managers and field specialists can identify local constraints on species and habitats, and opportunities to address them through management activities
watershed vulnerability assessment provides watershed-specific information needed to prioritize and design strategies for reducing the effects of climate change on watershed-sourced goods and services. it is applicable in the context of a forest service watershed condition assessment and as a stand-alone assessment procedure. the types of questions to be answered by using this assessment are summarized in boxes 4 and 5. watershed vulnerability assessment incorporates a large amount of data on existing species population status, location, and distribution of key habitats, and projected changes in stream temperatures, low flows, peak flows, and disturbance regimes to determine species and locations that are most susceptible to climate change. local managers and field specialists can identify local constraints on species and habitats, and opportunities to address them through management activities.
Define a detectable increase in extreme precipitation, Dx?
we define a detectable increase in extreme precipitation, dx, as the point (year) at which we would reject (at the a 0.05 or 95% significance level) the null hypothesis that the return level estimated for the 1961 - 1990 period, mc, and the return level estimated for a year x (where x 1990), mx, are equal in favor of the alternative hypothesis that mx is not equal to mc
On which ratio the a detectable increase in extreme precipitation, Dx based?
this statistical test is based on the signal - to - noise ratio and provides a distribution that is approximately normally distributed with a mean of zero and a standard deviation of 1; n (0,1) (see equation (1
What is the purpose of two - tailed Student ' s t test?
we then use a two - tailed student ' s t test (assuming that the trend can go down as well as up) to estimate the point at which the return levels are shown to be from a significantly different population at the a 0.05 level, i.e., where dx >= 1.96
we define a detectable increase in extreme precipitation, dx, as the point (year) at which we would reject (at the a 0.05 or 95% significance level) the null hypothesis that the return level estimated for the 1961 - 1990 period, mc, and the return level estimated for a year x (where x 1990), mx, are equal in favor of the alternative hypothesis that mx is not equal to mc. this statistical test is based on the signal - to - noise ratio and provides a distribution that is approximately normally distributed with a mean of zero and a standard deviation of 1; n (0,1) (see equation (1)). we then use a two - tailed student ' s t test (assuming that the trend can go down as well as up) to estimate the point at which the return levels are shown to be from a significantly different population at the a 0.05 level, i.e., where dx >= 1.96:
in what way can you you sustain a 50% increase in food production?
a major component of the solution will have to come from improved technology
how can you accelerate development and application of a promising technology?
the long-neglected global research and development investment in agriculture and food must at least be doubled
how much is the decline in total agricultural research and development spending in Africa between 1991 and 2000?
declined by 0 ae 4% annually
if food production has to increase by 50% in the next 40 years from a shrinking land resource, this will require a sustained and huge investment of capital, time and effort. in common with the past triumphs of world agriculture that gave us the green revolution to save millions from starvation, a major component of the solution will have to come from improved technology. this technology will need to produce, process, distribute and market food that is sufficient, safe and nutritious to meet the dietary needs and preferences of the world human population, without affecting the sustainability of the natural environment. the long-neglected global research and development investment in agriculture and food must at least be doubled to accelerate development and application of promising technology. between 1991 and 2000, total agricultural research and development spending declined by 0 ae 4% annually in africa, but increased by 3 ae 3% in asia. as a result, land productivity in east asia increased from us$1485 ha) 1in 1992 to us$2129 ha) 1
What will make the problem of moral corruption?
the presence of the problem of moral corruption reveals another sense in which climate change may be a perfect moral storm
Which is the serious issue for the upcoming generation?
it provides each generation with the cover under which it can seem to be taking the issue seriously - by negotiating weak and largely substanceless global accords
When would we said it is great achievement?
then heralding them as great achievements37 - when really it is simply exploiting its temporal position
in conclusion, the presence of the problem of moral corruption reveals another sense in which climate change may be a perfect moral storm. this is that its complexity may turn out to be perfectly convenient for us, the current generation, and indeed for each successor generation as it comes to occupy our position. for one thing, it provides each generation with the cover under which it can seem to be taking the issue seriously - by negotiating weak and largely substanceless global accords, for example, and then heralding them as great achievements37 - when really it is simply exploiting its temporal position. for another, all of this can occur without the exploitative generation actually having stephen m. gardiner
What smoothes the ocean core record?
bioturbation, mixing of ocean sediments by worms, smoothes the ocean core record, especially at locations where ocean sediments accumulate slowly
What provides a better measure of global temperatures that ice cores?
we conclude that ocean cores provide a better measure of global temperature change than ice cores during those interglacial periods that were warmer than the pre-industrial holocene
The Altithermal is usually placed at about how many years ago?
the altithermal, the time of peak holocene warmth, is usually placed at about 8,000 years ago, but it varies from one place to another
a third issue concerns the temporal resolution of ocean cores. bioturbation, mixing of ocean sediments by worms, smoothes the ocean core record, especially at locations where ocean sediments accumulate slowly. however, the interglacial periods of primary concern, the eemian and holsteinian, were longer than the resolution limit of most ocean cores. however, in using a constant adjustment factor (1.5) in fig. 4, based on the range of climates from the ice age to the holocene, we overstate the magnification at interglacial temperatures and understate the magnification at the coldest climates, thus maximizing the possibility for the deep ocean temperature to reveal (and exaggerate) large interglacial warmth. yet no interglacial warm spikes appear in the ocean core record of temperature change (fig. 4b). we conclude that ocean cores provide a better measure of global temperature change than we conclude that ocean cores provide a better measure of global temperature change than ice cores during those interglacial periods that were warmer than the pre-industrial holocene. c. the holocene how warm is the world today relative to peak holocene temperature? the altithermal, how warm is the world today relative to peak holocene temperature? the altithermal, the time of peak holocene warmth, is usually placed at about 8,000 years ago, but it varies from one place to another. our present interest is in global mean temperature, not regional variations. earth orbital (milankovic) parameters have favored a cooling trend for the past several thousand years, which would be expected to start in the northern hemisphere. for example, earth is now closest to the sun in january, which favors warm winters and cool summers in the northern hemisphere, thus favoring growth of glaciers and ice caps in the northern hemisphere. however, that tendency is very weak during the current interglacial period because another more slowly varying orbital parameter, the eccentricity of earth's orbit, happens to be small during this interglacial period8
Describe the evidence for warming?
evidence for warming of the earth's climate continues to accumulate with observations of global increases in average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising average sea level. it is very likely that most of the increase in global temperatures since the mid 20th century is due to human activities, which have elevated concentrations of greenhouse gases in the global atmosphere
What is greenhouse gas emissions?
continued greenhouse gas emissions at or above the current rates are very likely to cause further warming and changes to the earth's climate system
What are the ways to reduce global warming?
reducing or stabilizing emissions will slow global warming, but past emissions will continue to contribute to unavoidable warming and sea level rise for more than a century (ipcc 2007). because of this inevitability, governments and communities are beginning to address the causes of climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and at the same time implement strategies to adapt to the unavoidable impacts of climate change. it has long been recognized that climate is a fundamental determinant of where organisms can establish
evidence for warming of the earth's climate continues to accumulate with observations of global increases in average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising average sea level. it is very likely that most of the increase in global temperatures since the mid 20th century is due to human activities, which have elevated concentrations of greenhouse gases in the global atmosphere. continued greenhouse gas emissions at or above the current rates are very likely to cause further warming and changes to the earth's climate system. reducing or stabilizing emissions will slow global warming, but past emissions will continue to contribute to unavoidable warming and sea level rise for more than a century (ipcc 2007). because of this inevitability, governments and communities are beginning to address the causes of climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and at the same time implement strategies to adapt to the unavoidable impacts of climate change. it has long been recognized that climate is a fundamental determinant of where organisms can establish,
what is to be considered to assess the vulnerability of a region?
to assess the vulnerability of a region or community, it is necessary to consider both the magnitude of the potential impacts as well as our capacity to adapt to those impacts
An important factor to be considered for vulnerability analysis?
 an important factor of such analysis is the rate at which change is expected to occur
what are the regional examples of adaptation to climate change involves?
the following sections discuss specific regional examples of adaptation to climate change. while these include suggestions for adaptation options, detailed examinations of the processes of adaptation and the viability of potential adaptation options have, in most cases, not been conducted
to assess the vulnerability of a region or community, it is necessary to consider both the magnitude of the potential impacts as well as our capacity to adapt to those impacts. an important factor of such analysis is the rate at which change is expected to occur. for example, a gradual rise in sea level may allow most coastal infrastructure to be adapted during the course of normal maintenance or replacement, making accommodation or retreat viable options. in contrast, a more rapid rate could necessitate expensive protective measures or replacement in less than the design lifespan of the facility. assessment often involves conducting specific case studies in the region of concern see box 5). the following sections discuss specific regional examples of adaptation to climate change. while these include suggestions for adaptation options, detailed examinations of the processes of adaptation and the viability of potential adaptation options have, in most cases, not been conducted.
In the face of such worst case risks, it is misleading to look only at what?
in the face of such worst case risks, it is misleading to look only at the most likely range of conditions
How many times will the future happen?
the future will happen only once
What analysis varies multiple unknown parameters is seen in just a few IAMs?
a thorough treatment of uncertainty through monte carlo analysis that varies multiple unknown parameters is seen in just a few iams
in the face of such worst case risks, it is misleading to look only at the most likely range of conditions. the future will happen only once. suppose we knew that there were one hundred equally likely future scenarios, of which only one or a few would lead to truly catastrophic climate change. if we plan well for the most likely outcomes but instead one that we consider unlikely comes to pass, will we be comforted by our parsimonious rationality? a thorough treatment of uncertainty through monte carlo analysis that varies multiple unknown parameters is seen in just a few iams. even then it is difficult to fully explore the
The empirical questions about the governance of climate change by accountants?
how has the accountancy profession been involved in the day-to-day governance of climate change to date? what is its significance? how is the authority of accountants as carbon managers being established
What is the area of 3 3 policy?
n a relatively new area of 3 3 policy such as climate change where societal responses are still in flux there is an excellent and valuable opportunity to better understand accounting decision-making processes before they become embedded and routinised
we seek to answer key empirical questions about the governance of climate change by accountants: how has the accountancy profession been involved in the day-to-day governance of climate change to date? what is its significance? how is the authority of accountants as carbon managers being established? these questions are relevant in furthering our conceptual understanding of the new political and institutional challenges that flow from managing the new carbon economy, and in particular the new alliances, coalitions, resistances that are emerging aimed at engaging, embedding or rejecting it. these questions are also significant for the operation of carbon markets, since accounting makes economic items visible, and whether and how it does so is consequential. in a relatively new area of 3 3 policy such as climate change where societal responses are still in flux there is an excellent and valuable opportunity to better understand accounting decision-making processes before they become embedded and routinised.
Children's attachment security was associated with which score?
children's attachment security was positively associated with mother-child references to emotion and children's emotion understanding scores
Children's receptive vocabulary was associated with which score?
children's receptive vocabulary scores were positively associated with emotion understanding scores, but were not associated with mother-child references to emotion or children's attachment security
Was there any gender differences this study?
there were no gender differences in mother-child references to emotion or in emotion understanding scores, although boys were less securely attached than girls
bivariate analyses before beginning multivariate analyses, bivariate correlational analyses were conducted. depression at time 1, but not at time 2, was associated with lower scores in emotion understanding. at neither time 1 nor time 2 was depression associated with mother- child references to emotion. children's attachment security was positively associated with mother-child references to emotion and children's emotion understanding scores. mother-child references to emotion were positively associated with children's emotion understanding scores. children's receptive vocabulary scores were positively associated with emotion understanding scores, but were not associated with mother-child references to emotion or children's attachment security. there were no gender differences in mother-child references to emotion or in emotion understanding scores, although boys were less securely attached than girls. results appear in table 1. is depression related to children's emotion understanding? because depression at time 1 was significantly associated with depression at time 2, we created regression models predicting children's emotion understanding that included depression at both time points, controlling for children's receptive vocabulary skills. consistent with results from the bivariate analyses, depression at time 1, but not at
how many facets are there From the detailed review of global climate change by MacDonald ?
from the detailed review of global climate change by macdonald, there are three facets
what are the three facets From the detailed review of global climate change by MacDonald
there are three facets that are highly relevant to our understanding of the likely impacts of higher temperatures on the physiology and ecology of terrestrial invertebrates, particularly insects and mites: (1) since around 1860 earth has been undergoing a period of climate warming, which is predicted to continue throughout this century. (2) this warming is not consistent across the globe - increases in temperature are likely to be greatest at higher latitudes, such as the high arctic. (3) whilst current temperatures, and those predicted to occur over the next 50-100 years are within the range that organisms have experienced in previous climate cycles, both the rate of temperature change and the predicted future levels of co2 are unprecedented
what is predicted to occur over the next 50-100 years
whilst current temperatures, and those predicted to occur over the next 50-100 years are within the range that organisms have experienced in previous climate cycles, both the rate of temperature change and the predicted future levels of co2 are unprecedented (macdonald, 2010
from the detailed review of global climate change by macdonald, there are three facets that are highly relevant to our understanding of the likely impacts of higher temperatures on the physiology and ecology of terrestrial invertebrates, particularly insects and mites: (1) since around 1860 earth has been undergoing a period of climate warming, which is predicted to continue throughout this century. (2) this warming is not consistent across the globe - increases in temperature are likely to be greatest at higher latitudes, such as the high arctic. (3) whilst current temperatures, and those predicted to occur over the next 50-100 years are within the range that organisms have experienced in previous climate cycles, both the rate of temperature change and the predicted future levels of co2 are unprecedented (macdonald, 2010).
What are characteristics of PETM atmospheric circulation ?
the simulated petm atmospheric circulation is characterized by slightly weaker than present-day trade winds in response to a weaker than present-day hadley cell (figs. 8 and 9), consistent with the future-climate-change studies by vecchi and soden (2007
Describe the flow of trade winds?
the trade winds from the 4 3 co2 run to the 16 3 co2 run decrease with an increase in greenhouse gases
Describe PETM and present day Northern Hemisphere westerlies?
petm and present-day northern hemisphere westerlies are comparable in strength, but southern hemisphere westerlies are significantly weaker than for present-day (figs. 8 and 9), related to a lower meridional temperature gradient with an icefree antarctic region. moreover, increased friction due to a narrow drake passage and a more southward position of australia contribute to reduced petm southern hemisphere westerlies
the simulated petm atmospheric circulation is characterized by slightly weaker than present-day trade winds in response to a weaker than present-day hadley cell (figs. 8 and 9), consistent with the future-climate-change studies by vecchi and soden (2007). the trade winds from the 4 3 co2 run to the 16 3 co2 run decrease with an increase in greenhouse gases. the poleward shift in subpolar low pressure systems relative to the presentday run is also comparable with future climate scenarios (see meehl et al. 2006). petm and present-day northern hemisphere westerlies are comparable in strength, but southern hemisphere westerlies are significantly weaker than for present-day (figs. 8 and 9), related to a lower meridional temperature gradient with an icefree antarctic region. moreover, increased friction due to a narrow drake passage and a more southward position of australia contribute to reduced petm southern hemisphere westerlies. a significant seasonal variability (fig. 9) in surface winds is simulated over the atlantic and indian ocean. during northern hemisphere wintertime, a high pressure system over the tethys and southeast asia contributes to strong northeast winds over africa. in the northern hemisphere summer, with a northward shift of the itcz, warm moist air from the tethys contributes to strong convective activity over north africa. the high precipitation over southeast asia is related to moisture transport from the tropical pacific and indian ocean.
Define:Wetland system?
in some systems, ensuring that the physical environment allows ecosystem function to be maintained is the priority for adaptation. this is particularly true in wetland systems: maintaining the water supply is essential for function and support of species
What is the agricultural approach?
the effects of rising temperatures and possible droughts can be offset by a range of approaches, including blocking drainage channels and reducing ion for other purposes such as agriculture. in practice this requires a joined up approach to land management in which the needs of conservation and other land uses are balanced
What is biodiversity tracking?
so, maintaining some fresh water and wetland systems in a changing climate may be best achieved by improving water use efficiency in agriculture and managing catchments to retain water more effectively. this might include engineering solutions such as farm reservoirs; however, there is increasing interest in ecosystem based adaptation where managing the natural environment provides benefits for both people and biodiversity. restoring wetlands and strategically creating them within flood plains, together with reduced canalisation of rivers can help to ensure water is retained longer in wetlands and slowly released, maintaining water supply and reducing flood risks for people. the complexity and unpredictability of the interactions between climate change and land use mean projections are best viewed as a range of plausible futures to guide the development of adaptation measures. adaptation is likely to be most effective when it adopts a 'no regrets' approach and uses actions that are relevant to a range of scenarios. adaptation also needs to proceed using an adaptive management approach, where management can be adjusted on the basis of experience and unanticipated effects can be addressed.189,190to achieve this, spatially replicated long term biodiversity monitoring schemes are essential. such monitoring should aim for good coverage across land use and climate gradients and be integrated with meteorological monitoring and the recording of land use and management. current monitoring is often spatially, temporally and taxonomically biased.50in the uk, for example less monitoring occurs in more sparsely populated areas of scotland and wales and there is less monitoring of species which are not charismatic, but which nonetheless may have important functional roles in ecosystems.191
in some systems, ensuring that the physical environment allows ecosystem function to be maintained is the priority for adaptation. this is particularly true in wetland systems: maintaining the water supply is essential for function and support of species. the effects of rising temperatures and possible droughts can be offset by a range of approaches, including blocking drainage channels and reducing ion for other purposes such as agriculture. in practice this requires a joined up approach to land management in which the needs of conservation and other land uses are balanced. so, maintaining some fresh water and wetland systems in a changing climate may be best achieved by improving water use efficiency in agriculture and managing catchments to retain water more effectively. this might include engineering solutions such as farm reservoirs; however, there is increasing interest in ecosystem based adaptation where managing the natural environment provides benefits for both people and biodiversity. restoring wetlands and strategically creating them within flood plains, together with reduced canalisation of rivers can help to ensure water is retained longer in wetlands and slowly released, maintaining water supply and reducing flood risks for people. the complexity and unpredictability of the interactions between climate change and land use mean projections are best viewed as a range of plausible futures to guide the development of adaptation measures. adaptation is likely to be most effective when it adopts a 'no regrets' approach and uses actions that are relevant to a range of scenarios. adaptation also needs to proceed using an adaptive management approach, where management can be adjusted on the basis of experience and unanticipated effects can be addressed.189,190to achieve this, spatially replicated long term biodiversity monitoring schemes are essential. such monitoring should aim for good coverage across land use and climate gradients and be integrated with meteorological monitoring and the recording of land use and management. current monitoring is often spatially, temporally and taxonomically biased.50in the uk, for example less monitoring occurs in more sparsely populated areas of scotland and wales and there is less monitoring of species which are not charismatic, but which nonetheless may have important functional roles in ecosystems.191
What are scenario approaches increasingly used within mitigation and adaptation research for?
scenario approaches are increasingly used within mitigation and adaptation research for visioning alternative futures, exploring consistency, assessing plausibility and providing policy guidance
What explicit attributes are given to the scenario pathways developed in the paper?
the scenario pathways developed in this paper are explicitly 'backcasting' and quantitative
What premises are the scenario pathways based on?
they are not vision-based, but rather are premised on a cumulative emissions framing of climate change for which richer and more qualitative scenarios could be developed in terms of mitigation, impacts and adaptation
scenario approaches are increasingly used within mitigation and adaptation research for visioning alternative futures, exploring consistency, assessing plausibility and providing policy guidance 23 ]. these approaches vary in terms of 'backcasting' and 'forecasting', and range from top-down and quantitative through to more bottom-up and qualitative assessments. the scenario pathways developed in this paper are explicitly 'backcasting' and quantitative. they are not vision-based, but rather are premised on a cumulative emissions framing of climate change for which richer and more qualitative scenarios could be developed in terms of mitigation, impacts and adaptation. with regard to exploring the consistency of scenarios, the relative simplicity of the analysis presented here permits the connection between temperature targets and emission reductions to be readily assessed. in that sense, the scenarios are internally consistent. this
How long does the contemporary study of indigenous knowledge and its interface with science stretch back?
the contemporary study of indigenous knowledge and its interface with science stretches back over five decades
What were the Peruvian and Bolivian Andes indigenous farmers able to predict?
historically documented for more than 400 years, this traditional climate forecasting ritual in fact enables villagers to identify el nino years, which are also linked to diminished precipitation
How come the predictions are right?
mented for more than 400 years, this traditional climate forecasting ritual in fact enables villagers to identify el nino years, which are also linked to diminished precipitation. orlove et al. were able to demonstrate how and why these ancient observations actually work: the apparent size and brightness of the pleiades varies with the amount of thin, high cloud at the top of the troposphere, which in turn reflects the severity of el nino conditions over the pacific. because rainfall in this region is generally sparse in el nino years, this simple method provides a valuable forecast, one that is as good or better than any long-term prediction based on computer modeling of the ocean and atmosphere. (orlove et al., 2002: 428) 35
the contemporary study of indigenous knowledge and its interface with science stretches back over five decades. the numerous case studies published in the scientific literature demonstrate the breadth and sophistication of the knowledge possessed by indigenous experts about their natural milieu. much research has focused on the knowledge elaborated by societies worldwide regarding biological diversity (in particular plants and animals) and their related ecosystems and production systems (e.g. hunting, fishing, herding, agriculture etc.), including customary institutions for the management of resource access and exploitation. some investigations have also been dedicated to the physical environment, for example, inuit and sami knowledge of snow and ice (nelson, 1969; magga, 2006), and pacific islander knowledge of ocean currents, swell patterns, winds, tides, the reflection and diffraction of waves, the movements of constellations, and other phenomena related to open ocean navigation (finney, 1994; lewis, 1972). however, until recently, relatively little work has focused on indigenous observations and understandings of weather and climate. one noteworthy exception is the trailblazing work undertaken by orlove et al. (2000, 2002) on andean ethnoclimatology, in particular, the ritual observation of the pleiades constellation undertaken immediately after the winter solstice by indigenous farmers of the peruvian and bolivian andes. on the basis of these observations, villagers forecast the timing and quantity of rains, as well as the size of the harvest, for the following year. if the star cluster appears relatively large and bright, then rainfalls will be abundant and harvests substantial, while a small and dim appearance anticipates poor rains. in the latter case, farmers delay the planting of potatoes, their most important crop. historically documented for more than 400 years, this traditional climate forecasting ritual in fact enables villagers to identify el nino years, which are also linked to diminished precipitation. orlove et al. were able to demonstrate how and why these ancient observations actually work: the apparent size and brightness of the pleiades varies with the amount of thin, high cloud at the top of the troposphere, which in turn reflects the severity of el nino conditions over the pacific. because rainfall in this region is generally sparse in el nino years, this simple method provides a valuable forecast, one that is as good or better than any long-term prediction based on computer modeling of the ocean and atmosphere. (orlove et al., 2002: 428) 35
What is a snow?
snow is an essential component of earth system physics, both at high altitudes and at high latitudes
What are the two determinats of snow?
the two principal determinants of snow are temperature and precipitation
snow pack in the swiss alps under changing climatic conditions: an empirical approach for climate impacts studies martin beniston, franziska keller, and stephane goyette department of geosciences, university of fribourg, switzerland in many instances, snow cover and duration are a major controlling factor on a range of environmental systems in mountain regions. when assessing the impacts of climatic change on mountain ecosystems and river basins whose origin lie in the alps, one of the key controls on such systems will reside in changes in snow amount and duration. at present, regional climate models or statistical downscaling techniques, which are the principal methods applied to the derivation of climatic variables in a future, changing climate, do not provide adequate information at the scales required for investigations in which snow is playing a major role. a study has thus been undertaken on the behavior of snow in the swiss alps, in particular the duration of the seasonal snow-pack, on the basis of observational data from a number of swiss climatological stations. it is seen that there is a distinct link between snow-cover duration and height (i.e., temperature), and that this link has a specific "signature" according to the type of winter. milder winters are associated with higher precipitation levels than colder winters, but with more solid precipitation at elevations exceeding 1,700 - 2,000 m above sea-level, and more liquid precipitation below. these results can be combined within a single diagram, linking winter minimum temperature, winter precipitation, and snow-cover duration. the resulting contour surfaces can then be used to assess the manner in which the length of the snow-season may change according to specified shifts in temperature and precipitation. while the technique is clearly empirical, it can be combined with regional climate model information to provide a useful estimate of the length of the snow season with snow cover, for various climate-impacts studies. 1. snow is an essential component of earth system physics, both at high altitudes and at high latitudes, and any changes in the amount, duration, and timing of the snow-pack can have longlasting environmental and economic consequences. snow determines the timing of peak river discharge during the melting of the snow-pack in the spring and, in many instances, maintains river flows even during warm and dry summer periods. in terms of ecosystems, snow cover protects dormant plants during the coldest part of the year from damaging frosts; for many plants, snow melt represents a signal for plants to begin their growth cycle (e.g., keller et al. (1999). korner (1994), for example, has shown that for mountain regions, the length of the snow season and minimum temperatures are the most important factors for high alpine vegetation because they determine the growth and survival rates of numerous species at high altitudes. furthermore, and especially in the alps, snow is intimately linked to tourism based on winter sports, on which numerous mountain resorts depend for a substantial part of their income (beniston, 2000). the two principal determinants of snow are temperature and precipitation; as climate changes, subsequently modifying temperature distributions and precipitation patterns, so does snow amount and duration. the succession of assessment reports of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc, 1990; 1996; 2001) have re-iterated with increasing confidence the fact that climate is changing as a result of the significant increases of greenhouse-gases in the atmosphere resulting
Describe the two types of conditions?
there are two types of conditions (for more details see, for example, koller and friedman 2009). 1) going from probability distribution to independence graph, we have to make sure that the obtained independence graph actually models the data well, that is, that it is faithful to the probability distribution. 2) going from independence graph to causal interpretation, we have to make sure that there are no hidden common causes or other conditions that could cause the independence graph to misrepresent a system's causal relationships
What do FCI algorithms show?
 algorithms such as the fast causal inference (fci) algorithm developed by spirtes and glymour (1991) can identify the presence of these latent variables under certain conditions but are of high computational complexity and currently not yet feasible for large graphs
What does the casual discovery process contribute?
the contribution of the causal discovery process as described here is therefore to reduce the number of causal hypotheses to a manageable set that can then be tested by a domain expert
once we learned independence graphs through structure learning we need to consider under which conditions these graphs can be interpreted in a causal way. there are two types of conditions (for more details see, for example, koller and friedman 2009). 1) going from probability distribution to independence graph, we have to make sure that the obtained independence graph actually models the data well, that is, that it is faithful to the probability distribution. 2) going from independence graph to causal interpretation, we have to make sure that there are no hidden common causes or other conditions that could cause the independence graph to misrepresent a system's causal relationships. the first condition roughly translates into the following practical guidelines. (i) the independence signal must be strong enough to be picked up by the statistical tests in the presence of noise. (ii) no selection bias is allowed, that is, the data samples must be representative of the independence relationships of the system. (iii) probability distributions must be identical and independent. for example, a patient's disease risk for noncontagious diseases are easily modeled, but contagious diseases require work arounds, because one patient's state can affect another patient's state. (iv) if the independence graph is directed, no causal loops are allowed in the system. if causal loops are present, then a dynamic bayesian network or a markov network (undirected graph) should be used. to meet the second condition, the primary concern is to make sure that the nodes in the graph are causally sufficient, that is, if any two nodes x y of the graph have a common cause z then z must also be included in the graph. this condition is sometimes hard to meet in practice because there are often many variables, from enso to solar flares, that can have a common influence on variables under consideration. it may be impossible to include them all because of complexity and because some of them cannot even be observed. algorithms such as the fast causal inference (fci) algorithm developed by spirtes and glymour (1991) can identify the presence of these latent variables under certain conditions but are of high computational complexity and currently not yet feasible for large graphs. improvements have been suggested, see colombo et al. (2012), and may help in the future. for now we take the pragmatic approach of using the pc algorithm and interpreting the results accordingly. namely, we need to consider the possibility that any link detected by the pc algorithm may either present a direct causal connection, be due to a common cause, or a combination of the two. that is why we call the results from the analysis ''causal hypotheses,'' and they must be tested one by one by a domain expert. the contribution of the causal discovery process as described here is therefore to reduce the number of causal hypotheses to a manageable set that can then be tested by a domain expert. finally, trends in the data should be removed beforehand. in a way, this is a special case of a hidden common cause because time can be seen as a common cause influencing those variables. the solution is to remove trends from the data in the preprocessing.
Explain effect of climate change?
the net effect of climate change on infectious disease dynamics depends on the full spectrum of direct and indirect effects of climate on host and pathogen life histories
Effect of disease?
importantly, these effects will extend beyond simple changes in host or parasite geographical distributions to include significant shifts in the physiology and temporal interactions between hosts and parasites which could alter disease dynamics in natural populations
Define disease emergence?
the role of r. ondatrae in causing amphibian limb deformities, our results have additional implications for amphibian conservation and disease emergence
the net effect of climate change on infectious disease dynamics depends on the full spectrum of direct and indirect effects of climate on host and pathogen life histories. importantly, these effects will extend beyond simple changes in host or parasite geographical distributions to include significant shifts in the physiology and temporal interactions between hosts and parasites which could alter disease dynamics in natural populations. by experimentally manipulating temperature and multiple stages in the life cycle of the pathogenic trematode, r. ondatrae we demonstrate that increases in temperature enhance the growth, mortality and development of both hosts and parasites in different ways, leading to elevated pathology in snail hosts. given the role of r. ondatrae in causing amphibian limb deformities, our results have additional implications for amphibian conservation and disease emergence.
What is the other cause for reduction in annual rainfall over the Indus watershed besides amount of summer monsoon rain?
melt water from glaciers and snowfields in the karakoram and western himalayas
What was Core 63KA  sampled for?
globigerinoides ruber in continuous 1 cm intervals (typically 15-30 individuals) with a few intermittent sections of coarser sampling
Why were gaps in the record present?
gaps in the record are due to absent g. ruber
a reduction in annual rainfall over the indus watershed must not necessarily be the result of a change in the amount of summer monsoon rain alone. although indus discharge is extremely biased towards the summer monsoon season milliman et al. 1984], the d18o of indus water is lighter than monsoon rainwater and significantly affected by melt water from glaciers and snowfields in the karakoram and western himalayas, which are largely fed by winter and figure 2. core 63ka (sedimentation rate 65 cm/ka, see supplementary note 1) was sampled for globigerinoides ruber in continuous 1 cm intervals (typically 15-30 individuals) with a few intermittent sections of coarser sampling. gaps in the record are due to absent g. ruber figure 1. (a) arabian sea region with core sites and continental watersheds. the harappan cultural domain prior to 4.2 ka bp encompassed the indus valley and the thar desert possehl 1997]. contours show average annual rainfall in mm/month gpcc 1998]. (b) annual evolution of sea surface temperature and mixed layer depth for the gulf of oman and, (c) for the northeastern arabian sea levitus and boyer 1994].
What IPCC stands for and when was the first assessment  reported?
intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) published its first assessment report in 1990
what does the images describes?
images of melting glaciers dominate the pictorial language of climate change, powerful symbols of a fragile earth at risk from the impacts of climate change 
how do greenpeace explained?
the environmental campaign group greenpeace has been instrumental in documenting these impacts through film and photography
images of melting glaciers dominate the pictorial language of climate change, powerful symbols of a fragile earth at risk from the impacts of climate change (figure 1).1the environmental campaign group greenpeace has been instrumental in documenting these impacts through film and photography. since 1997, greenpeace has led expeditions to the arctic and antarctic in order to observe and record climate change effects witnessed through retreating or cracked glaciers. the discourse of visual 'truth' invested in the photograph functions here in a powerful way when considered in the context of historical struggles by greenpeace, and other environmental ngos, to communicate the reality of global warming to sceptical governments and a disinterested public since the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) published its first assessment report in 1990.2yet concurrently, photographs of melting glaciers engender a representational problem concerning the visual communication of environmental issues. the photographs of glaciers represent temporally the already seen effects of climate change; a distinct problem when considered within the context of the historical efforts by environmental ngos to bring attention to the global problem of climate change, before its impacts could be seen understood within the discourse of photography, the comparative photographs of melting glaciers signify as the certainty of what is, or as barthes would say, 'what has been' (barthes, [1980] 2000, p. 85). in other words, the potential effects of climate change upon the landscape have become actual, recorded and made evident by the photograph (doyle, 2008).3the visualisation of climate change through photography thus calls attention to the problems associated with trying to communicate environmental issues that are both temporal (long term and developmental) and unseen (not always visible), through a medium that privileges the 'here and now' of the visual. science as culture vol. 16, no. 2, 129-150, june 2007
What is the calculation of total global mitigation potential in emissions from changes in agricultural production technologies?
the total global mitigation potential in emissions from changes in agricultural production technologies is calculated to be 6,000 mtco2e yr- 1
How does the global figure conceal variation in potentials in regions and farming systems?
for example, in japan, vietnam, north korea, pakistan, and the united states, the mitigating effect of seasonal draining of paddy rice is greater than 40% of annual emissions because these countries either have a large proportion of continuously flooded rice fields or plant rice only once a year
Why would some regions and farming systems be greater than 40% annual emissions?
in japan, vietnam, north korea, pakistan, and the united states, the mitigating effect of seasonal draining of paddy rice is greater than 40% of annual emissions because these countries either have a large proportion of continuously flooded rice fields or plant rice only once a year
technical options for mitigation in the agricultural sector are well understood. not including fisheries, for which understanding of mitigation potentials is in an earlier stage of development (134), the total global mitigation potential in emissions from changes in agricultural production technologies is calculated to be 6,000 mtco2e yr- 1, which at a price of us$20 per tonne co2e would lead to implementation of 1,500-1,600 mtco2e yr- 1, with greater implementation at higher carbon prices (26, 135). about 70% of this potential is in low-income and middle-income countries (135), although the global figure conceals wide variation in the potentials among regions and among farming systems. for example, in japan, vietnam, north korea, pakistan, and the united states, the mitigating effect of seasonal draining of paddy rice is greater than 40% of annual emissions because these countries either have a large proportion of continuously flooded rice fields or plant rice only once a year. by contrast, there
Which area will the climate change impact most?
one of the largest impacts of climate change is likely to be on water resources and their management
What does the UNFCCC report provide?
the unfccc report (unfccc, 2007) provides the first global-scale estimates of the potential costs of adaptation
What is the headline conclusion?
the headline conclusion is that the additional investment and financial flows required for adaptation to potential changes in the availability of water supplies would be approximately $9-11 billion per year in 2030, approximately 85% of which would be needed in non-annex 1 parties
one of the largest impacts of climate change is likely to be on water resources and their management. while there have been many studies of hydrological impacts at catchment, regional and global scales, there have been very few published studies on the costs of potential adaptation options at any scale. the unfccc report (unfccc, 2007) provides the first global-scale estimates of the potential costs of adaptation. the headline conclusion is that the additional investment and financial flows required for adaptation to potential changes in the availability of water supplies would be approximately $9-11 billion per year in 2030, approximately 85% of which would be needed in non-annex 1 parties.1 the unfccc report suggests that this is the same order of magnitude as the additional investment required to meet the millennium development goal targets for sustainable access to safe drinking water and basic sanitation. however, there are grounds (outlined below) for expecting that the unfccc figure is an underestimate of likely potential costs of adaptation to water supply. the figure does not include an allowance for costs of adapting in other aspects of water resources management, such as managing increased flood risk, maintaining water quality standards and supporting instream economic and environmental uses. the figure does not include any additional costs of residual impacts of climate change, caused by events above the design standard, and these costs may be very substantial in practice because adaptation will be neither perfect nor completed on time. also, the figure of $9-11 billion/year represents the additional cost of maintaining a defined level of service in the presence of climate change. it does not include the cost of providing this level of service where it does not currently exist. the unfccc report estimates that the total cost (to 2030) of providing a specific level of service globally - thus reducing the development deficit - varies between $639 billion and $797 billion, depending on assumed economic and population growth, corresponding to an annual average of approximately $32-40 billion (assuming investment is over a 20-year period). this chapter provides a critique of the unfccc estimates, but first examines the conceptual and methodological issues around the estimation of adaptation costs and residual damages in the water sector. it also reviews the (limited) literature.
What is a climate change ?
climate change mitigation and poverty thus far we have focused our attention on the poverty impacts of climate change, potential adaptation strategies which the poor may adopt, and the ways in which the policy environment shapes the adaptation process. however, as the global community focuses increased attention on climate change mitigation, the potential for such mitigation efforts to have an impact on poverty increases
What is a mitigation and poverty ?
climate change mitigation and poverty thus far we have focused our attention on the poverty impacts of climate change, potential adaptation strategies which the poor may adopt, and the ways in which the policy environment shapes the adaptation process. however, as the global community focuses increased attention on climate change mitigation, the potential for such mitigation efforts to have an impact on poverty increases
What is poverty impacts?
climate change mitigation and poverty thus far we have focused our attention on the poverty impacts of climate change, potential adaptation strategies which the poor may adopt, and the ways in which the policy environment shapes the adaptation process. however, as the global community focuses increased attention on climate change mitigation, the potential for such mitigation efforts to have an impact on poverty increases
climate change mitigation and poverty thus far we have focused our attention on the poverty impacts of climate change, potential adaptation strategies which the poor may adopt, and the ways in which the policy environment shapes the adaptation process. however, as the global community focuses increased attention on climate change mitigation, the potential for such mitigation efforts to have an impact on poverty increases. we argue here that the poverty consequences of policies to mitigate climate change could potentially rival in importance the poverty impacts of the climate change itself. forestry and agriculture account for roughly one-third of global greenhouse gas emissions (ipcc 2007, figure 2.1) thus offering tremendous potential to contribute to climate change mitigation programs. furthermore, at high carbon prices (e.g., $100 per ton co2 equivalent), the combined mitigation potential of agriculture and forestry is greater than that of any other individual sectors in the economy (world development report 2010, 25). indeed, golub et al. (2009) estimate that, in the next two decades, these sectors could account for as much global abatement as would be attained from reduced fossil fuel consumption based on a global carbon tax of $28 per ton co2 equivalent. much of this low cost abatement is due to avoided deforestation in the tropics. this has focused considerable international attention on programs for reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation (redd). indeed, a handful of wealthy nations committed a $3.5 billion down payment for redd with much more to follow at the recent climate summit in copenhagen (the economist, dec. 17, (anon. 2009b)). as it happens, much deforestation occurs in areas with relatively high poverty rates - namely at the frontier in developing countries. this
What is the use of vegetation for?
the use of vegetation is essential to increase the absorption rate of the nutrients and the loss of water by transpiration
What else is vegetation?
the vegetation represents a barrier to the free surface flow of the liquid in the soil, increasing the retention of suspended solids and avoiding erosion
What vegetation is recommended?
the vegetation should be perennial, water tolerant grasses
the soils should have a low permeability (e.g. clay). the slope should be moderate (between 2 and 8% ). the use of vegetation is essential to increase the absorption rate of the nutrients and the loss of water by transpiration. besides this, the vegetation represents a barrier to the free surface flow of the liquid in the soil, increasing the retention of suspended solids and avoiding erosion. this gives better conditions for the development of the microorganisms that will carry out the various biochemical reactions. the vegetation should be perennial, water tolerant grasses. local agricultural extension agents should be consulted. wastewater application can be done by sprinklers, gated pipes, slotted or perforated pipes or bubbling orifices (wpcf, 1990). figure 4.18 presents a flowsheet of an overland flow system.
What factor might impact the livelihood of a reindeer herder?
herders' livelihoods, for example, depend in large part on the level of production of their herds
Name two factors that affect the ability of the reindeer to eat.
the level of feeding the animals enjoy is determined in the short-term by prevailing weather conditions in summer, which affect the growth and nutritional quality of forage plants (e.g. lenart et al., 2002 ), and by weather conditions in winter, in particular a combination of precipitation, temperature and wind, which affect the quality of the snow-pack and, hence, the availability of the forage beneath it pruitt, 1959 skogland, 1978 forchhammer and boertmann, 1993 
Are there factors other than climate that affect reindeer pastoralism?
moreover, not only are several of the nonclimate factors that impinge on it determined by political decisions and the policies of institutions far removed from finnmark but also the perception of the vulnerabilities of reindeer pastoralism itself differs widely across political and managerial hierarchies, economic sectors and cultures, not least with increasing distance from finnmark
budsjettnemda for jordbruket, 2005 lars-johan rustad, personal communication) is also highly variable (range 2000-2004 from us$ 11,000 to us$ 23,000; st.prp.nr. 63, 2004-2005 and their private economy is precarious as a direct result. where income is uncertain and cash (as opposed to capital) is scarce, people are especially vulnerable to factors that perturb the basis of the production upon which they depend. the study, therefore, used a vulnerability framework turner et al., 2003a to structure an examination of the multiple and interacting forces that may influence the ways in which reindeer pastoralism is affected by climate change. 1.2. developing a conceptual framework: local participation a vulnerability study must be built on a conceptual framework that reflects the attributes of the case under investigation. the first step towards such a study, therefore, is to develop a framework tailored to the characteristics of the system of interest, in this case reindeer pastoralism in finnmark. reindeer, reindeer herders and the natural and social environments of which they are a part represent a coupled social-ecological system consisting of many components which, though only distantly related, are closely and functionally linked. herders' livelihoods, for example, depend in large part on the level of production of their herds. production, in turn, depends on the size of herds and on the productivity of individual reindeer in them which depends, again in turn, on the quantity, quality and availability of forage. the level of feeding the animals enjoy is determined in the short-term by prevailing weather conditions in summer, which affect the growth and nutritional quality of forage plants (e.g. lenart et al., 2002 ), and by weather conditions in winter, in particular a combination of precipitation, temperature and wind, which affect the quality of the snow-pack and, hence, the availability of the forage beneath it pruitt, 1959 skogland, 1978 forchhammer and boertmann, 1993 ). in the medium and long term, however, feeding levels are also determined by a suite of non-climate factors and these, and others, have a major influence on the level of production and, completing the circle, on herders' livelihoods. such factors include the quality of pasture (in terms of the species composition and biomass of forage and the availability of other important natural resources), the existing area of pasture, herders' rights of access to it, the level of competition between reindeer and other grazers (chiefly free-ranging domestic sheep), the level of predation to which herds are subjected, the size of the market and the monetary value of reindeer products and so on. reindeer pastoralism, therefore, is influenced by a range of variables in both the natural and the social environments in which it is practiced. moreover, not only are several of the nonclimate factors that impinge on it determined by political decisions and the policies of institutions far removed from finnmark but also the perception of the vulnerabilities of reindeer pastoralism itself differs widely across political and managerial hierarchies, economic sectors and cultures, not least with increasing distance from finnmark. ultimately, however, the vulnerability of any coupled social-ecological system is a function of local conditions and the identification of the factors that influence it
What happens if the climate control altitudinal range limits?
if climate controls altitudinal range limits, we hypothesize that growth is strongly influenced by climatic variables at upper and lower range limits, with the direction of these relationships or identity of the climatic driver (temperature [temp] or precipitation [precip]) differing between upper and lower range limits
which six tree species with different altitudinal ranges are examined?
thuja plicata (thpl), pseudotsuga menziesii (psme), and tsuga heterophylla (tshe) at low elevations; and abies amabilis (abam), callitropsis nootkatensis (cano), and tsuga mertensiana (tsme), occurring at high elevations
Which factor influences precipitation?
total annual precipitation and precipitation related variables increase with elevation
fig. 1. climate and species' ranges. (a) if climate controls altitudinal range limits, we hypothesize that growth is strongly influenced by climatic variables at upper and lower range limits, with the direction of these relationships or identity of the climatic driver (temperature [temp] or precipitation [precip]) differing between upper and lower range limits. hc is the hypothesized direction of influence of climatic drivers on growth, if climate drives range limits. climatic drivers could be annual or seasonal (dormant vs. growing). (b) we examined growth-climate relationships in six tree species with different altitudinal ranges: thuja plicata (thpl), pseudotsuga menziesii (psme), and tsuga heterophylla (tshe) at low elevations; and abies amabilis (abam), callitropsis nootkatensis (cano), and tsuga mertensiana (tsme), occurring at high elevations. solid lines indicate 30 probability of occurrence; dotted lines indicate 5 (data from franklin et al. [1988]); gray shading is the range of sampling elevations. (c) mean annual temperature and other temperature-related variables decrease with elevation, while (d) total annual precipitation and precipitation related variables increase with elevation. june 2011 1325 climate and tree range limits
Surveys are administered to which employees?
surveys were administered to 136 production employees of a manufacturing organization located in the pacific northwest of the united states
What percentage of employees are having high school education or less?
the majority of employees (69%) had a high school education or less, with 27% reporting some college education
In which time employees do surveys?
employees were given time off during working hours to complete the survey, which was labeled a workplace environment survey
surveys were administered to 136 production employees of a manufacturing organization located in the pacific northwest of the united states. seventy-eight percent of the respondents were male, which corresponded to the gender composition of the organization. on average, employees had worked for the company for 4.44 years sd  4.38 years). the majority of employees (69%) had a high school education or less, with 27% reporting some college education. of the 136 employees, 128 fell into 14 distinct workgroups within the organization, with the workgroups defined by departmental affiliation and shift schedule. employees were given time off during working hours to complete the survey, which was labeled a workplace environment survey and contained the following measures.
What is the archetype for loss?
the archetype for loss is the absolute of death
What are the types of loss?
types of loss absolute loss loss we have no control over: the archetype is death, but other losses such as losing employment, or the extinction of species may also have this quality chosen loss loss engaged with for reasons of ethics or concern, where a conscious decision is made to relinquish something transitional loss loss arising from the movement from one experience to another, typically from one life-stage to another anticipatory loss facing loss through preparing for it and grieving in advance
What robs us of whoever or whatever we love?
the archetype for loss is the absolute of death, the greater power that robs us of whoever or whatever we love
i have written so far as if all loss is the same. while it is true that mourning for all losses tends to follow a similar pattern it may be helpful to consider different kinds of loss and their implications for work on climate change. the archetype for loss is the absolute of death, the greater power that robs us of whoever or whatever we love. implacable, merciless, relentless, it arbitrarily destroys relationships, hopes and futures. it is clear that there are strong aspects of absolute loss, both in relation to temperature rise, bio-diversity, destruction of habitat and in relation to mitigation, where individual life-style, prosperity, identity and relationship may all be under threat. however there are also chosen losses where people voluntarily give up something desirable and transitional losses where a loss may be balanced by a gain. considering these kinds of loss in relation to climate change may be helpful as may the idea of anticipatory loss - the possibility that some of the work of mourning can be done in preparation for a loss that is inevitable in the future. <insert table 2: types of loss, somewhere between this point and and the heading integrative solutions> 12 12 table 2: types of loss absolute loss loss we have no control over: the archetype is death, but other losses such as losing employment, or the extinction of species may also have this quality chosen loss loss engaged with for reasons of ethics or concern, where a conscious decision is made to relinquish something transitional loss loss arising from the movement from one experience to another, typically from one life-stage to another anticipatory loss facing loss through preparing for it and grieving in advance
What is life like on coral reefs?
oral reefs support numerous taxa and are formed by calcium carbonate (caco3) deposits secreted over time, mainly by hard corals and calcareous algae. at present, shallow coral reefs cover an estimated 28.4 million ha globally (spalding et al. 2001
How do symbiotic algae absorb carbon?
symbiotic algae that live within coral polyps take up carbon through photosynthesis, but on most reefs this carbon is equal to or only slightly greater than the carbon released through coral, algal, and microbial respiration, resulting in low to no net
coral reefs support numerous taxa and are formed by calcium carbonate (caco3) deposits secreted over time, mainly by hard corals and calcareous algae. at present, shallow coral reefs cover an estimated 28.4 million ha globally (spalding et al. 2001). reefs not only provide coastal protection from storms and erosion, spawning and nursery grounds for economically important fish species, and jobs and income to local economies, but also represent hotspots of marine biodiversity. whether coral reef ecosystems are sources or sinks of atmospheric co2 depends on the balance between two sets of processes: photosynthesis/respiration and calcification/dissolution (figure 2a). symbiotic algae that live within coral polyps take up carbon through photosynthesis, but on most reefs this carbon is equal to or only slightly greater than the carbon released through coral, algal, and microbial respiration, resulting in low to no net
What are all the factors rely on Climate data, the spatial and temporal resolution ?
for climate data, the spatial and temporal resolution (e.g., spatial distribution and duration of weather records) affect the downscaling of gcms, and differences in the broad climatic variables used to drive gcms can result in different projections, increasing model uncertainty
The reliability of occurrence records of species used to derive correlational niche models depends on which faactors ?
the reliability of occurrence records of species used to derive correlational niche models depends on the comprehensiveness of survey coverage, potential biases in recording presence or absence, observer skill at identification, and a host of other factors (62
Small sample size or inadequate spatial coverage decreases which data ?
small sample size or inadequate spatial coverage decreases the statistical confidence of correlations underlying niche models and increases the uncertainty of extrapolating distributions to broader areas (60
any modeling exercise is sensitive to the quality and quantity of the underlying data, and sdms are no exception. for climate data, the spatial and temporal resolution (e.g., spatial distribution and duration of weather records) affect the downscaling of gcms, and differences in the broad climatic variables used to drive gcms can result in different projections, increasing model uncertainty. the reliability of occurrence records of species used to derive correlational niche models depends on the comprehensiveness of survey coverage, potential biases in recording presence or absence, observer skill at identification, and a host of other factors (62). small sample size or inadequate spatial coverage decreases the statistical confidence of correlations underlying niche models and increases the uncertainty of extrapolating distributions to broader areas (60). additionally, some surveys collect only presence data, whereas other surveys also document absences. incorporation of absence data may strengthen a niche model (because where a species is not can reveal as much about its niche as where it is), but ''absence'' can mean a true absence or a failure to record a species that is actually present (''false absence'').
what is seen as driving the policy process?
it is the conflict between storylines
Hajer terms the conflict between storylines that is seen as driving the policy process as what? '
argumentative approach
Hajer distinguishes between discourse structuration and discourse institutionalisation. If both processes are successful then a discourse becomes what?.
hegemonic
the discourse coalition approach, with its focus on the emergence and hegemony of particular storylines, overcomes some of the weaknesses of traditional policy network accounts in opening up the dynamic of policy processes. discourses may be shared across looser networks where there is little evidence of shared interests. at the same time, discourses are multiple, allowing for flexibility in network alliances. however, despite the potential for multiplicity and loose ties, analysts of discourse coalitions have primarily focused on cases where there are two (rather tightly defined) coalitions in opposition within a single policy domain (bulkeley, 2000; hajer, 1995; mander, 2007; szarka, 2004). it is the conflict between storylines that is seen as driving the policy process, what hajer terms an 'argumentative approach', which "... conceives of politics as a struggle for discursive hegemony in which actors try to secure support for their definition of reality." (hajer, 1995, emphasis added: 59). hajer distinguishes between discourse structuration and discourse institutionalisation: the former has occurred when policy actors feel obliged to use a certain storyline in order to appear credible, and the latter when discourse becomes reflected in policies and institutional arrangements. if both processes are successful then a discourse becomes hegemonic.
What will climate change potentially have many impact on?
agricultural production
What is there a great variation in?
projections of crop response to climate change, with both gains and losses commonly predicted
What have several recent Canadian studies done?
integrated crop models with general circulation model (gcm) output for a 2xco2 climate scenario, in order to project the impact of climate change on different types of crops
climate change will potentially have many impacts on agricultural production (figure 1). as such, there is great variation in projections of crop response to climate change, with both gains and losses commonly predicted. several recent canadian studies have integrated crop models with general circulation model (gcm) output for a 2xco2 climate scenario, in order to project the impact of climate change on different types of crops. examples include: * mcginn et al.,(11)who suggested that yields of canola, corn and wheat in alberta would increase by between 21 and 124%. * singh et al.,(12)who suggested that corn and sorghum yields in quebec could increase by 20%, whereas wheat and soybean yields could decline by 20-30%. canola, sunflowers, potatoes, tobacco and sugarbeets are expected to benefit, while a decrease in yields is anticipated for green peas, onions, tomatoes and cabbage. * bootsma et al.,(13)who suggested that there could be an increase in grain corn and soybean yields in the atlantic provinces by 3.8 and 1.0 tonnes/ hectare respectively, whereas barley yields are not expected to experience significant changes. they further suggested that a minimum of 50% of the agricultural land area presently seeded to small grain cereals and silage corn may shift production to grain corn and soybeans to maximize economic gains.
What is seen from the study?
our study should be seen as a first estimation of what could happen to the red list status of the proteaceae in the cfr by 2020
Reasonable range of future trends based on what?
we regard our results as giving a reasonable range of future trends based on our current knowledge of the potential impacts of future land use and climate change on the threat status of the proteaceae at a regional scale
Why caution should be used?
caution should be used if our results are used to infer impacts for other taxa or at other temporal or spatial scales
our study should be seen as a first estimation of what could happen to the red list status of the proteaceae in the cfr by 2020. we regard our results as giving a reasonable range of future trends based on our current knowledge of the potential impacts of future land use and climate change on the threat status of the proteaceae at a regional scale. our approach utilizes data that introduce uncertainty and, together with our assumptions, models and scenarios, should be interpreted accordingly. caution should be used if our results are used to infer impacts for other taxa or at other temporal or spatial scales. in the next section we investigate possible reasons for underestimation or overestimation of the impacts of future threats on the proteaceae.
Many of the differences between climate change and disaster management communities are related to the perception of what?
the perception of the nature and timescale of the threat
Disasters are caused by what?
disasters caused by extreme environmental conditions
Why are impacts of climate change difficult to measure?
the changes in average climatic conditions and climatic variability occur over a long period and because a wide range of simultaneous environmental and socio-economic processes ameliorates vulnerabilities
many of the differences between the climate change and disaster management communities are related to differences in the perception of the nature and timescale of the threat. disasters caused by extreme environmental conditions tend to be fairly distinct in time and space (except for slow-onset or creeping disasters like desertification) and present a situation where the immediate impacts tend to overwhelm the capabilities of the affected population and rapid responses are required. for many hazards there exists considerable knowledge and certainty about the event characteristics (type of hazard, geographical areas at risk, frequency, magnitude, probability of recurrence), as well as exposure characteristics (geology, elevation, number of people at risk), based on historical experiences. most impacts of climate change, meanwhile, are much more difficult to perceive and to measure, since the changes in average climatic conditions and climatic variability occur over a long period and because a wide range of simultaneous environmental and socio-economic processes ameliorates vulnerabilities.
What does the study region covers?
the study region covers the terrestrial surface of the globe, with the exception of antarctica and small islands
How is the area gridded?
the area is gridded using 0.5 8 by 0.5 8 pixels; for a pixel to be included in the analysis, a land cover of at least 2/3 of its area is required
How are the Fire Data sampled?
fire data are sampled using a behrmann equal area projection and then transformed to wgs 1984
the study region covers the terrestrial surface of the globe, with the exception of antarctica and small islands. the area is gridded using 0.5 8 by 0.5 8 pixels; for a pixel to be included in the analysis, a land cover of at least 2/3 of its area is required. the climateand vegetation-related variables, which are detailed below, are registered using the wgs 1984 geographic coordinate system, and statistical models are run using this system. fire data are sampled using a behrmann equal area projection and then transformed to wgs 1984. though the wgs 1984 overestimates true area as one moves away from the equator, equal area sampling of fire data minimizes bias in our statistical models. supplemental comparisons of the change in probability of fire with altered climate using geographic and behrmann equal area data showed that our geographic sampling framework does not affect outcomes of the study.
Increases in humidity in equatorial east africa after maximum equatorial heat stroke occur in a period of how many kyr?
occurred at 10^11 kyr intervals
What is the moment of climate change in Africa during the last two glacial / interglacial cycles?
is still poorly known
what can help explain why ice ages occur in both hemispheres simultaneously?
a tropical forcing of deglaciation
earth's orbital precession [1^3] due to the geometry of precession, changes in summer solar radiation are in antiphase between hemispheres, causing maximum monsoonal circulation and moister climate every 23^19 kyr in north and south africa [4^7] in contrast, periods of increased humidity in equatorial east africa occurred at 10^11 kyr intervals following maximum equatorial insolation in march and september the timing of climate change in africa during the last two glacial^interglacial cycles is still poorly known. this is partly due to the fact that few paleoclimate chronologies extending back to v 200 kyr are available. these records are usually well-dated for the last v 40 kyr but uncontrolled in the older parts, mainly because of the temporal limitations of the radiocarbon method [6,9,10] few records provide some evidence for a period of high lake levels and increased humidity at v 135 kyr bp, well before the intensic/cation of the monsoon system after the penultimate glacial [11^13] recently, high-quality chronologies of tropical climate have become particularly important in the discussion of a tropical forcing of deglaciation [14,15] the key argument of this hypothesis is that tropical sea-surface temperatures (ssts) lead high-latitude northern hemisphere ice volumes by several thousand years [16,17] a tropical forcing of deglaciation could also help explain why ice ages occur in both hemispheres simultaneously although the changes in solar irradiance from orbital variations have opposite e!ects in the north and south however, these assessments are based on marine records, which are often di/cult to date beyond the radiocarbon time scale. here, we present a precisely dated highresolution lacustrine sequence of climate-induced hydrological changes from the closed naivasha basin (central kenya rift) extending back to 176 kyr bp fig. 1b ). a c/rst compilation of the sediment characteristics and40ar/39ar ages has been published in and we present: (a) a more detailed description of the sedimentary sequence, (b) detailed statistical analysis of the geochronological information, and (c) a discussion of the timing
What are the types of bloodfeeding arthropods?
vector-borne diseases are infections that are transmitted to humans and animals through bloodfeeding arthropods, such as mosquitoes, ticks and fleas
Which insects cause the West Nile virus?
insectand tick-borne diseases, such as west nile virus, eastern and western equine encephalitis (transmitted by mosquitoes), lyme disease and rocky mountain spotted fever (transmitted by ticks),(53, 54)already cause human health problems in some parts of canada. rodent-borne viruses, capable of causing illnesses and deaths in humans, are also present in much of southern canada
Which region has a public health concern for hantaviruses?
hantaviruses, which can cause fatal infections (pulmonary syndrome), are of particular public health concern because the deer mice that carry hantaviruses tend to invade dwellings and are present across canada as far north as the yukon territory and the northwest territories.(56, 57
vector-borne diseases are infections that are transmitted to humans and animals through bloodfeeding arthropods, such as mosquitoes, ticks and fleas. insectand tick-borne diseases, such as west nile virus, eastern and western equine encephalitis (transmitted by mosquitoes), lyme disease and rocky mountain spotted fever (transmitted by ticks),(53, 54)already cause human health problems in some parts of canada. rodent-borne viruses, capable of causing illnesses and deaths in humans, are also present in much of southern canada.(55)hantaviruses, which can cause fatal infections (pulmonary syndrome), are of particular public health concern because the deer mice that carry hantaviruses tend to invade dwellings and are present across canada as far north as the yukon territory and the northwest territories.(56, 57)
What were the requested actions for high priority risks?
for high priority risks, identify and evaluate a range of adaptation options that could reduce vulnerability to specific climate change impacts, and that could be implemented in a comprehensive adaptation strategy
What will the City need to develop?
it was observed that the city will need to develop clear criteria for choosing among identified options and developing adaptation strategies
What did the author say can be included in the adaptation option selection criteria?
criteria could include: * the effectiveness of the adaptation action in protecting vulnerable populations; * the extent to which proposed adaptation options protect against loss of life or major economic losses; * whether the adaptation option reduces stress on vulnerable systems; * the cost of the adaptive action compared to the cost of alternative strategies, or the potential cost of not acting; * the extent to which adaptation options also reduce greenhouse gas emissions or provide other benefits that increase the sustainability and liveability of the city
this should include assessment of the probability of the impact's occurrence and the severity of impact, and evaluation of the severity of an impact on the physical and natural environment of the city, the health and well-being of toronto's citizens, and costs to the economy. for high priority risks, identify and evaluate a range of adaptation options that could reduce for high priority risks, identify and evaluate a range of adaptation options that could reduce vulnerability to specific climate change impacts, and that could be implemented in a comprehensive adaptation strategy. box 1 shows recommended examples or green and blue space adaptation options. it was observed that the city will need to it was observed that the city will need to develop clear criteria for choosing among identified options and developing adaptation strategies. these criteria could include: * the effectiveness of the adaptation action in protecting vulnerable populations; * the extent to which proposed adaptation options protect against loss of life or major economic losses; * whether the adaptation option reduces stress on vulnerable systems; * the cost of the adaptive action compared to the cost of alternative strategies, or the potential cost of not acting; * the extent to which adaptation options also reduce greenhouse gas emissions or provide other benefits that increase the sustainability and liveability of the city. also, in creating its adaptation strategy, the city can build on a number of existing programs such as the heat alert and hot weather response system and the wet weather flow master plan; programmes which are designed to protect the city from the current weather extremes or those aimed primarily at climate change mitigation.
What is calcification?
calcification is the process by which corals produce calcium carbonate (caco3
Why is coral reef calcification decrease worrisome?
such decreases in calcification would cause loss of reefs because construction rates would fall below natural destruction rates
What does the present study suggest about calcification?
our analysis suggests that annual average coral reef calcification rate will increase with future ocean warming and eventually exceed pre-industrial rates by about 35% by 2100. there is evidence however to suggest that different corals display different sensitivities to changes in arag and sst reynaud et al., 2003
australian institute of marine science, townsville, queensland, australia coral reefs are constructed of calcium carbonate (caco3). deposition of caco3 (calcification) by corals and other reef organisms is controlled by the saturation state of caco3 in seawater  and sea surface temperature (sst). previous studies have neglected the effects of ocean warming in predicting future coral reef calcification rates. in this study we take into account both these effects by combining empirical relationships between coral calcification rate and  and sst with output from a climate model to predict changes in coral reef calcification rates. our analysis suggests that annual average coral reef calcification rate will increase with future ocean warming and eventually exceed pre-industrial rates by about 35% by 2100. there is evidence however to suggest that different corals display different sensitivities to changes in arag and sst reynaud et al., 2003]. considering that both these environmental parameters are likely to change considerably in the future, additional experiments on a variety of differing coral species will be crucial to obtain a better understanding of future coral reef stability. calcification is the process by which corals produce calcium carbonate (caco3). coral reef calcification is predicted to decrease 20-60% by 2100, relative to pre-industrial levels kleypas et al., 1999], due to increases in co2 levels in the surface ocean as atmospheric co2 rises. such decreases in calcification would cause loss of reefs because construction rates would fall below natural destruction rates. the caco3 saturation state of seawater  is defined by:
what is outcome studies?efi
outcome studies' tend to focus on technological adaptation to minimize particular impacts of climate change whereas 'contextual studies' tend to focus on sustainable development strategies that increase the response capacity of human populations for dealing with a large variety of hazards [o'brien et al. 2007, eriksen and kelly 2007
Define vulnerability definition and characterizes?
the ipcc definition of vulnerability to climate change corresponds to outcome vulnerability. the ipcc definition characterizes vulnerability (to climate change) as a function of a system's exposure and sensitivity to climatic stimuli and its capacity to adapt to their (adverse) effects [ipcc 2007], which corresponds to outcome (or end-point) vulnerability, but it does not provide a clear definition of these attributes or the relationship between them
Explain the relationship between the keyterms?
illustrates the relationship between key terms employed in climate change impact, vulnerability, and adaptation assessment. note that the term 'vulnerability' refers to outcome vulnerability and the term 'impacts' refers to potential biophysical impacts
different interpretations of vulnerability do not only produce different rankings of vulnerable regions or systems; they also suggest different strategies for reducing vulnerability. 'outcome studies' tend to focus on technological adaptation to minimize particular impacts of climate change whereas 'contextual studies' tend to focus on sustainable development strategies that increase the response capacity of human populations for dealing with a large variety of hazards [o'brien et al. 2007, eriksen and kelly 2007]. 5. the ipcc definition of vulnerability to climate change corresponds to outcome vulnerability. the ipcc definition characterizes vulnerability (to climate change) as a function of a system's exposure and sensitivity to climatic stimuli and its capacity to adapt to their (adverse) effects [ipcc 2007], which corresponds to outcome (or end-point) vulnerability, but it does not provide a clear definition of these attributes or the relationship between them. figure 2 illustrates the relationship between key terms employed in climate change impact, vulnerability, and adaptation assessment. note that the term 'vulnerability' refers to outcome vulnerability and the term 'impacts' refers to potential biophysical impacts. 6 6
Desribe Eden region association?
eden region here, more uncertainty is again associated with projections of short-duration droughts, with the driving gcm providing an important source of this uncertainty
Define Hadley-driven models project?
hadley-driven models project more frequent dro3 droughts, with up to three additional events per decade driven by decreases in summer precipitation
How Longer events as measured?
longer events as measured by dro6 show less inter-model variability but, in contrast to other regions, all models suggest a decrease in such events, typically by around one event per decade, due to increases in winter precipitation
eden region here, more uncertainty is again associated with projections of short-duration droughts, with the driving gcm providing an important source of this uncertainty. hadley-driven models project more frequent dro3 droughts, with up to three additional events per decade driven by decreases in summer precipitation. however, echam-driven models, particularly hirham e, project fewer events in the north of the region, while arp c projects comparatively small changes. longer events as measured by dro6 show less inter-model variability but, in contrast to other regions, all models suggest a decrease in such events, typically by around one event per decade, due to increases in winter precipitation. a decrease in the maximum dro6 drought severity and duration are also projected for the eden. blenkinsop and fowler (2007) demonstrated that for the united kingdom as a whole there is a tendency towards more frequent surface water droughts and fewer groundwater droughts due to increases in winter precipitation. however, uncertainty remains for future projections of the occurrence of groundwater droughts for the south east of england. meuse/dommel region projections of future change in both dro3 and dro6 exhibit a greater degree of spatial variability than for any of the other regions. for dro3 (figure 9(a)), most models project an increase in frequency for the meuse and dommel, although the spatial pattern of change is variable and due, at least partially, to the driving gcm. echam-driven models project larger increases in the northern part of the region (including the dommel catchment), with decreases to the south. in contrast, the two models driven by hadam3h suggest the opposite pattern of change. unlike the eden, there is some uncertainty as to the future direction of changes in dro6
What is the analytical framework provided in the text?
analytical framework for discourse analysis of newspaper articles 1. surface descriptors (newspaper, author, date, page, section, word count, title) 2. basic entities recognised or constructed 3. assumptions about natural relationships 4. agents and their motives 5. key metaphors and other rhetorical devices 6. normative judgements adapted from dryzek (2005) and carvalho (2000
Who is the approach adopted by?
the approach also borrows from that adopted by carvalho (2000
Who's methodology is it similar to?
while aspects of her methodology are similar to that of dryzek
the approach also borrows from that adopted by carvalho (2000) for the analysis of media texts. while aspects of her methodology are similar to that of dryzek, she also explicitly outlines normative judgements, aspects which seem pertinent to this topic. the 'surface descriptors' of the articles, such as length and title, are also deemed important. together, these approaches form the analytical framework outlined in box 2.1. box 2.1. analytical framework for discourse analysis of newspaper articles box 2.1. analytical framework for discourse analysis of newspaper articles 1. surface descriptors (newspaper, author, date, page, section, word count, title) 2. basic entities recognised or constructed 3. assumptions about natural relationships 4. agents and their motives 5. key metaphors and other rhetorical devices 6. normative judgements adapted from dryzek (2005) and carvalho (2000)
How is a rise in water temperature dangerous?
they often lead to an increase in toxicity
What can happen during periods of drought?
during periods of drought as water levels drop so do oxygen levels in water courses that can occasionally lead to largescale death of fish stock in rivers and streams
as water temperatures rise they often lead to an increase in toxicity. during periods of drought as water levels drop so do oxygen levels in water courses that can occasionally lead to largescale death of fish stock in rivers and streams. this is exacerbated by increasing toxicity as there is less water to dilute any existing pollutants. an increasing problem is also the impact of warming water on the growth of algal blooms in both fresh and sea water. there are growing fears that human-made pollution is producing ' dead zones ' caused by critically low oxygen levels in the oceans of the world. by 2007 over 400 coastal dead zones were recorded, up from 300 in 1995 and 162 in the late 1980s. dead zones are caused when massive algal blooms, feeding off pollutants such as fertilizers, die and decay. marine bacteria feed on the algae in the blooms after they have sunk to the bottom, and use up much of the oxygen dissolved in the water. the resulting ' hypoxic ' seabeds can asphyxiate seabed organisms like clams and worms, and in turn disrupt fish stock. the problem can be exacerbated by periods of heavy rain that flush out more of the chemical pollutants in the soils, into the streams and rivers and down into the sea.
What are the different attempts of classification about climate change discourses within the media?
language, assumptions and contentions
IPPR stands for?
public policy research
in addition, there has been little attempt to classify different climate change discourses within the media in terms of their varying components such as 4 language, assumptions and contentions. the research detailed above has largely tackled the media discourse as a whole. the only work that has verged on classifying discourses is a recent report for the institute for public policy research (ippr, 2006), which looked at discourses within the mass media and more widely within society, in order to understand how best to convey the climate change 'story' to the public. this identified 11 'repertoires' regarding climate change based on shared 'systems of language' (ibid.: 12), grouped into three overarching repertoires based on their understanding of the threat of climate change.
How many sections is this report made up of?
this report is organised into five distinct sections
How many short case studies are included in the appendices?
the appendices, which include 18 short case studies
What can be found in Appendix 2?
a list of other sources where case studies on adaptation to climate change using green and blue spaces can be found
this report is organised into five distinct sections: * chapter 1: this explains the key aims of the database, and provides information about the approach taken to the selection of the case studies. * chapter 2: factors affecting adaptation actions at the local level. this chapter summarises important factors recognised by previous research that influence the success of embedding adaptation to climate change in decision making. it also presents a summary of challenges and opportunities to the development of green and blue infrastructure adaptation responses, as identified by organisations participating in the grabs project. this discussion also identifies aspects of developing adaptation responses that the grabs partners were interested in learning more about, which helped to guide the case study selection process. * chapter 3: case studies. this chapter begins with a table presenting the distribution of case studies against the criteria that were used to select the case studies. the structure of the case studies is briefly explained. the main part of this chapter, and of the overall report, is 15 indepth case studies presenting different approaches to adaptation to climate change which utilise green and blue infrastructure. * chapter 4: lessons learnt. this chapter summarises the lessons learnt from the case studies and aims to draw generic and transferable lessons that practitioners and decision makers can draw upon when developing climate change adaptation responses. * the appendices, which include 18 short case studies highlighting additional examples of green and blue infrastructure approaches (appendix 1), and a list of other sources where case studies on adaptation to climate change using green and blue spaces can be found (appendix 2).
What does a Climate Risk Management Knowledge Base serves as input to?
we propose a climate risk management knowledge base, as input to climate risk management at the country and project levels
How could Country Assistance Strategies be improved?
country assistance strategies and other country-level planning documents could be improved by explicitly considering climate information
What does Section 3.6 address?
section 3.6 discusses support and coordination for climate risk management in the bank's regional operations, and lays out a climate risk management work program for the global climate change team and/or the disaster management facility
the following sections will outline some of the elements of such a set of tools for climate risk management. first (section 3.2), we propose a climate risk management knowledge base, as input to climate risk management at the country and project levels. second (section 3.3) we discuss how country assistance strategies and other country-level planning documents could be improved by explicitly considering climate information. third (sections 3.4 and 3.5) we propose a routine project risk screening tool at the project level, and a way to identify "climate hotspots" that could serve as pilots for experience building. section 3.6 discusses support and coordination for climate risk management in the bank's regional operations, and lays out a climate risk management work program for the global climate change team and/or the disaster management facility.
Which factors need to be assesded about the effects of global climate change?
the extent to which climate changes exacerbate environmental degradation, drive settlement collapse, cause famine, spur migrations, or trigger confl ict over resources
What is clear about climate change and its range of impacts?
the weather it produces, can have a wide range of impacts, many negative, some positive, but all with the potential to affect human security
at a time when the effects of global climate change can be seen to be taking place, there is a pressing need to assess how these might affect human society.1 the extent to which climate changes exacerbate environmental degradation, drive settlement collapse, cause famine, spur migrations, or trigger confl ict over resources has received widespread attention (e.g., diamond 2005; fagan 2000, 2004; linden 2006). it is clear that climate change, and the weather it produces, can have a wide range of impacts, many negative, some positive, but all with the potential to affect human security. crucially, however, opinions differ as to the importance to human societies of climate on its own and in comparison to unrelated processes of social, political, and economic change (diamond 2005). furthermore, even if climate change can be shown to have produced a direct impact (for instance crop failure or livestock mortality), perhaps the most important question of all is why people d0 not (or cannot) adapt and either avoid or mitigate the bad effects of the weather. as with so many other environmentally related issues that cut across disciplinary boundaries, assessments of relative emphasis, sensitivity, thresholds, adaptation, and response are vital. this paper reconsiders the case of norse greenland and the end of the settlements in the early part of the little ice age (grove 2001; jones 1986). for this iconic example of settlement desertion widely associated with climate change
What causes the thermohaline component of the MOC?
the thermohaline component of the moc is a consequence of both surface and internal processes
What is the time span covered in Figure 16 (in years)?
figure 16 shows the time mean (for years 1981-2000
What causes interhemispheric oceanic circulation?
the nature of the wind-driven circulation (which can be explained entirely by the surface wind stress
the time mean meridional-depth overturning circulation moc depicts the interhemispheric oceanic circulation associated with both wind-driven and thermohaline forcings. the nature of the wind-driven circulation (which can be explained entirely by the surface wind stress) is nearly identical in the two models and gives rise to similar transports. this feature arises from the very similar wind stress patterns found in the two coupled models (donner et al. 2011). the thermohaline component of the moc is a consequence of both surface and internal processes and, thus, more difficult to characterize. figure 16 shows the time mean (for years 1981-2000) and ensemble mean global and atlantic overturning
Why Nordhaus and Boyer (2000) ignore 'catastrophic risks'?
nordhaus and boyer (2000), include very rough estimates of 'catastrophic risks', but still largely ignore such risks, because they take a 'best guess' of how much warming will come about
What is the problem with catastrophic risks?
the problem is that catastrophic risks, at least as they are simulated in iams, are unlikely to be triggered by best-guess warming of around 2-3oc this century
What climate science tells us?
climate science tells us to consider more rapid warming
in fact, none of the iams formally incorporates estimates of all of the impacts of climate change considered possible (see downing et al ., 2005; and figure 6.3 in the review). some, such as nordhaus and boyer (2000), include very rough estimates of 'catastrophic risks', but still largely ignore such risks, because they take a 'best guess' of how much warming will come about. the problem is that catastrophic risks, at least as they are simulated in iams, are unlikely to be triggered by best-guess warming of around 2-3oc this century. this is too sanguine a forecast, because climate science tells us to consider more rapid warming (see ipcc, 2007b, which projects up to 6.4oc warming by 2100), and
What is a phenomenon?
thisphenomenonisprobablymoreimportantforfires occurring at the lower elevations (close to the 1500 m threshold) of the entire upper elevation dataset, where grasses are still strongly present as they are in the open oak community (whittaker and niering 1965). higher elevation forest communities are likely influenced by some combination of other climate-regulated fine fuel production mechanisms and the one described above
What are lower elevations?
thisphenomenonisprobablymoreimportantforfires occurring at the lower elevations (close to the 1500 m threshold) of the entire upper elevation dataset, where grasses are still strongly present as they are in the open oak community (whittaker and niering 1965). higher elevation forest communities are likely influenced by some combination of other climate-regulated fine fuel production mechanisms and the one described above
What is a threshold?
thisphenomenonisprobablymoreimportantforfires occurring at the lower elevations (close to the 1500 m threshold) of the entire upper elevation dataset, where grasses are still strongly present as they are in the open oak community (whittaker and niering 1965). higher elevation forest communities are likely influenced by some combination of other climate-regulated fine fuel production mechanisms and the one described above
correlations indicate that upper elevation tab is significantly related to wet conditions during the year before larger fire events in the dataset. perennial native grasses in south-easternarizona respond primarily to warm season precipitation (neilson 2003) and may account for the positive correlation between tab and moisture-related surface climate variables.wetter monsoon conditions may spur on more perennial grass productivity, creating a greater continuity of fine fuels across the landscape that would support wildfire spread.thisphenomenonisprobablymoreimportantforfires occurring at the lower elevations (close to the 1500 m threshold) of the entire upper elevation dataset, where grasses are still strongly present as they are in the open oak community (whittaker and niering 1965). higher elevation forest communities are likely influenced by some combination of other climate-regulated fine fuel production mechanisms and the one described above. the wet conditions during all seasons of the year prior may be an indication that fine fuels are produced by different species in different ways. the accumulation of leaf litter from deciduous trees may be more dependent on an autumn wet signal while conifers may drop more needles with higher snowfall amounts. both would result in an accumulation of fine fuels available to carry fire in the following year. 'wet' fire-climate correlations, linked to fuel production, occur during the year before the fire season (amj), but not necessarily during the year of the current fire season. neither wet (positive) nor dry (negative) correlations were observed between tab and the three moisture-related surface variables (pdsi, z-index, and precipitation anomaly). this suggests that dry conditions were not consistently a precursor to large upper elevation fire events. these results are counter-intuitive and contradict several fire history studies conducted in the desert south-west that found more large forest fires occurring during unusually dry years (swetnam and betancourt 1998; grissino-mayer and swetnam 2000; barton et al 2001). this is most likely a product of the relatively short time span of the fire event data used in this
According to the article, of the scientific objectives, what is desirable, or even necessary in some cases, to have what?
depending on the scientific objectives, it is desirable, or indeed required in some cases, to have a data set that is free of missing data
What is provided for most variables, including individual satellite data and the combined product?
for most variables including the individual satellite data and the combined product, there is both a seasonal cycle and an anomaly time series provided
What are the three categories of data products populated in SWOOSH?
there are three categories of filled data products in swoosh: "equivalent latitude filled", "anomaly filled", and "equivalent latitude filled" "anomaly filled
depending on the scientific objectives, it is desirable, or indeed required in some cases, to have a data set that is free of missing data. in other cases, the focus may be the climatological seasonal cycle or departures from the seasonal cycle (anomalies). swoosh includes several data products to fulfill these needs. for most variables including the individual satellite data and the combined product, there is both a seasonal cycle and an anomaly time series provided. the anomaly time series simply has the long-term mean seasonal cycle (computed over the entire record) removed at each time/grid box. there are three categories of filled data products in swoosh: "equivalent latitude filled", "anomaly filled", and "equivalent latitude filled" "anomaly filled". the equivalent latitude filled products are simply the geographically gridded variables with missing data filled in using data from the corresponding equivalent latitude gridded data (i.e., in the same latitude/height/month bin). this is useful for filling in data near the poles. as an example, aura mls only
What are ways communities can cope with heat waves?
in urban areas, for example, communities may be able to reduce heat-related health effects, and therefore increase tolerance to heat waves, by introducing such adaptive measures as issuing heat-health alerts, improving access to air-conditioned areas and increasing the use of "cool roofs", which reduce heat absorption by buildings
What is a way a community can adapt over time?
similarly, introducing water conservation measures, such as restrictions on outdoor water use and improved water use and storage efficiency, may decrease baseline demand for water
What is a fundamental goal of adaptation?
increasing coping ranges represents a fundamental goal of adaptation
it is important to recognize that coping ranges can change over time, either deliberately through planned adaptation or unintentionally. in urban areas, for example, communities may be able to reduce heat-related health effects, and therefore increase tolerance to heat waves, by introducing such adaptive measures as issuing heat-health alerts, improving access to air-conditioned areas and increasing the use of "cool roofs", which reduce heat absorption by buildings see 'human health and well-being' chapter). in the river flow example discussed above, adaptation options, such as adding a dam, dredging the river or building levees, can increase the upper critical threshold of river flow, allowing riverside communities to tolerate higher flow levels (reference 21; see also box 3). similarly, introducing water conservation measures, such as restrictions on outdoor water use and improved water use and storage efficiency, may decrease baseline demand for water.(28)increasing coping ranges represents a fundamental goal of adaptation.
what is the Implicit in this practice
mplicit in this practice is the assumption that local records are somehow correlated with the glacial signal, albeit with some possible phase differences
why has it become common practice to place regional records everywhere on the same time scale as the global ice volume curve?
because the glacial signal is so large in such phenomena as temperature, it has become common practice to place regional records everywhere on the same time scale as the global ice volume curve
what are the results of this study ?
our results suggest that climate variability relating to the hydrological cycle may vary from region to region somewhat independently of global ice volume changes
because the glacial signal is so large in such phenomena as temperature, it has become common practice to place regional records everywhere on the same time scale as the global ice volume curve. implicit in this practice is the assumption that local records are somehow correlated with the glacial signal, albeit with some possible phase differences. while this may be useful for temperature proxies, our results suggest that climate variability relating to the hydrological cycle may vary from region to region somewhat independently of global ice volume changes. furthermore, the precipitation changes shown in figs. 4 and 9 imply that regionally, the precessional signal can be as large as or larger than the glacial signal. thus, when interpreting observed climate changes at specific locales and at specific times, it is important to have an a priori notion of how much of and in what way the signal can be attributed to glacial boundary conditions as opposed to precessional forcing.
How has the science changed in recent years for in vitro conservation?
the science for this has improved significantly in recent years and many developed countries are establishing national cryo-banks
Is there enough funding to continue to fund cryo-banks across the world?
however, most developing countries do not have the financial nor technical capacity to establish and maintain such cryo-banks
Should the facilities for plants become established the same as gene banks?
given the complexities associated with the establishment and maintenance of such facilities, it makes sense to consider a similar approach as has been taken for plants and to create international banks such as the in-trust plant collections in the cgiar gene banks
the preservation of existing animal genetic diversity as a global insurance measure against unanticipated change has not been as well appreciated as has that for plants. when conservation through use is insufficient (as is the widespread situation with indiscriminant cross-breeding), ex -situ especially in vitro conservation needs to be considered as an important component of a broad-based strategy to conserve critical adaptive genes and genetic traits. the science for this has improved significantly in recent years and many developed countries are establishing national cryo-banks. however, most developing countries do not have the financial nor technical capacity to establish and maintain such cryo-banks. given the complexities associated with the establishment and maintenance of such facilities, it makes sense to consider a similar approach as has been taken for plants and to create international banks such as the in-trust plant collections in the cgiar gene banks. such gene banks would act both as an insurance policy as well as a source of genetic material for breed improvement programs. livestock (and human) health livestock (and human) health
What is the most rational line to take for many governments?
for many, then, the most rational line to take may seem the wait-and-see approach
What makes it difficult for governments to assess where their national interests lie?
the logic, urgency, and promise of tackling climate change (cambridge, ma: mit press, 2015), p. 39. makes it difficult for governments to assess where their national interests lie
What complicates further the international politics of climate change?
the international politics of climate change is further complicated by the longstanding divide between developed and developing countries over how to divide up the mitigation burden, particularly in view of industrialized countries' historical responsibility for the bulk of emissions.8
kelly levin, ben cashore, steven bernstein and graeme auld, 'overcoming the tragedy of super wicked problems: constraining our future selves to ameliorate global climate change', policy sciences 45: 2, 2012, pp. 123-52. 7 nicholas stern, why are we waiting? the logic, urgency, and promise of tackling climate change (cambridge, ma: mit press, 2015), p. 39. makes it difficult for governments to assess where their national interests lie. for many, then, the most rational line to take may seem the wait-and-see approach. and even if some emitters were to undertake major mitigation measures, they could not be certain that other emitters would reciprocate. reducing national emissions amounts to the provision of a global 'public good' from which all countries would benefit, with concomitant powerful free-riding incentives. such uncertainty about the behaviour of other emitters militates against a strong international agreement. the international politics of climate change is further complicated by the longstanding divide between developed and developing countries over how to divide up the mitigation burden, particularly in view of industrialized countries' historical responsibility for the bulk of emissions.8
What showed episodes of rapid number concentration increases on sunny days?
measurements of atmospheric nanoparticles between 20 and 25 nm diameters by measurements of atmospheric nanoparticles between 20 and 25 nm diameters by mass spectrometry at the pasadena ground site showed episodes of rapid number concentration increases on sunny days
What were also observed on most days at the Bakersfield ground site?
regular and predictable new particle formation events were also observed on most days at the bakersfield ground site
What was clearly dominated by secondary organic mass due to daytime photochemical processing?
their analysis showed the new particle mode, initially centered at 20 nm and growing to 40-100 nm by the afternoon peak in mass, was clearly dominated by secondary organic mass due to daytime photochemical processing
pasadena site, although much larger contributions have been reported for other urban areas volkamer et al. 2007]. measurements of atmospheric nanoparticles between 20 and 25 nm diameters by measurements of atmospheric nanoparticles between 20 and 25 nm diameters by mass spectrometry at the pasadena ground site showed episodes of rapid number concentration increases on sunny days, indicative of new particle formation even in this particle-rich environment. these episodes were attributed to the processing of motor vehicle emissions during transport from the downtown los angeles area to the measurement site pennington et al. 2012]. regular and predictable new particle formation events were also observed on most days at the bakersfield ground site in the southern sjv ahlm et al. 2012]. their analysis showed the new particle mode, initially centered at 20 nm and growing to 40-100 nm by the afternoon peak in mass, was clearly dominated by secondary organic mass due to daytime photochemical processing.
What is a key driver for a low-carbon future?
together with improving energy efficiency, expanding the use of renewable sources for energy production is one of the key drivers for a low-carbon future
Which countries have the highest ranking in renewable energy leadership?
the winners in this category are malta, belgium and ireland
Which countries have the worst ranking in renewable energy leadership?
russia, iran, australia and algeria have the worst scores in the renewable energy ranking
together with improving energy efficiency, expanding the use of renewable sources for energy production is one of the key drivers for a low-carbon future. shifting energy production to renewables is the only way to decouple economic development from increasing emissions, making it indispensable for improvements in both climate protection and social equality. currently, there are great developments within this sector, not only in developed countries. north african states are investing heavily in renewables. within this group, morocco is increasingly becoming a pioneer and role model for its neighbours. germany as the country with the highest ambitions in the field of renewables-aiming for a complete transformation of its energy system to clean sources--lost track during the implementation of its "energiewende", and has to prove its leadership within the next year. for now, the country loses ground and finds itself on rank 11. the winners in this category are malta, belgium and ireland. other countries like brazil lost some ground, but generally there are no remarkable changes within the ranking compared to last year. russia, iran, australia and algeria have the worst scores in the renewable energy ranking. usa and china are marked as "poor" performers in this field. both countries have seen massive investments in renewable energy in recent years, but the effect of these investments is not yet reflected in the data. very good good moderate poor very poor not included in assessment
When is purposive sampling of communities appropriate?
purposive sampling of communities is an appropriate strategy for exploratory studies such as this (agrawal 2001), although inferences from the data are constrained by the non-random selection of study sites
How many households were sampled?
we surveyed a total of 1564 households
What was sampling of households within communities based on?
sampling of households within communities was based on a systematic sampling design (henry 1990
communities were purposively sampled based on their use of coral reef resources that were included in ecological surveys. purposive sampling of communities is an appropriate strategy for exploratory studies such as this (agrawal 2001), although inferences from the data are constrained by the non-random selection of study sites. we used key informant interviews and household surveys to collect information on the eight indicators of adaptive capacity (table 2). we surveyed a total of 1564 households. sampling of households within communities was based on a systematic sampling design (henry 1990). we conducted between 23-143 surveys per site, depending on the population of the communities and the available time per site. household surveys targeted household heads. in sites with a low density of fishers in the general population, additional systematic surveys were conducted from the population of fishers. participant observations, oral histories, community transect walks, and secondary information (report, population censuses, etc.) was used to triangulate the results of our surveys.
What does PDSI stand for?
palmer drought severity index (pdsi
A PDSI below zero means what?
pdsi value below 0.0 indicates the beginning of drought situation
Has the soil moisture index been computed for all the sub-basins of River Krisha?
the soil moisture index has been computed for all the sub-basins of the river krishna
drought indices are widely used for the assessment of drought severity by indicating relative dryness or wetness effecting water sensitive economies. the palmer drought severity index (pdsi) is one such widely used index that incorporates information on rainfall, land use, and soil properties in a lumped manner8. the palmer index categorizes drought into different classes. pdsi value below 0.0 indicates the beginning of drought situation and pdsi value below -3.0 indicates severe drought condition. recently, a soil moisture index has been developed9 to monitor drought severity using swat output. this formulation has been employed in the present study to focus on the agricultural drought where severity implies cumulative water deficiency. weekly information has been derived using daily swat outputs which in turn have been used for analysis of drought severity. the soil moisture index has been computed for all the sub-basins of the river krishna. number of drought weeks in the sub-basins of krishna (consisting of the weeks with smi of less than or equal to -3.0), for both control and ghg scenarios are shown in figure 6. the smi for ghg scenario has been computed using the soil moisture deficit ratio parameters of control scenario. it may be observed from figure 6 that the numbers of drought weeks have considerably increased during ghg scenario barring about five sub-basins of the krishna basin. analyses have also been performed with respect to drought conditions over monsoon and non-monsoon periods separately but could not be presented here due to lack of space.
What does the result shown indicate?
this result indicates that an unrepresentative assumption of stationarity would lead to misinterpretation (in this example, underestimation) of extreme climatic conditions
What is a further example shown here?
another example is the pixel in the western u.s., where the positive trend is not as strong as the one in the central u.s. (compare figures s 1 a and s 1 b
What does the non-stationary envelope of simulations encompass?
the non-stationary envelope of simulations (fig. 6b encompasses all of the empirical return levels, while the stationary ensemble (fig. 6a does not enclose all the points, including few points at the beginning and the last observation
the non-stationary envelope of simulations (fig. 6b encompasses all of the empirical return levels, while the stationary ensemble (fig. 6a does not enclose all the points, including few points at the beginning and the last observation. in the central u.s., the return levels under the stationary assumption (fig. 5a are much lower than those under the non-stationary assumption (figs. 5c, d ). for example, the return levels corresponding to the 50-year annual temperature maxima (ensemble median red dashed lines) are 14.3. c, 15.5. c and 16.1. c, under stationary, non-stationary, and lr non-stationary, respectively. this result indicates that an unrepresentative assumption of stationarity would lead to misinterpretation (in this example, underestimation) of extreme climatic conditions. another example is the pixel in the western u.s., where the positive trend is not as strong as the one in the central u.s. (compare figures s 1 a and s 1 b). nonetheless, if the observed linear trend continues in the future, the return levels will be underestimated under the stationary assumption. considering a 50-year return level (ensemble median red dashed lines), it is 28.5. c (stationary), 29.1. c (non-stationary), and 29.4. c (lr non-stationary). it should be noted, that the annual maxima is based on mean monthly temperature values and the daily maxima may exceed these values. once the parameters are sampled and return levels are simulated, the non-stationarity assumption included in the location parameter is tested using the log-likelihood and bayes
What was not part of the overall UNFCCC report and is included only in the consultant's report?
costing adaptation
What is the estimate cost of biodiversity conservation in the wider matrix of landscapes?
about $290 billion a year, in addition to the pa network costs
Why must the estimation treated with great caution?
estimate is based on extrapolation of figures for the protection of biodiversity on agricultural land from only one study to the global level
costing adaptation in the wider landscape was not part of the overall unfccc report and is included only in the consultant's report (berry, 2007). again this is based on james et al. (2001), and biodiversity conservation in the wider matrix of landscapes is estimated to cost about $290 billion a year, in addition to the pa network costs (table 7.2). such a figure would include more of the adaptation actions identified, although options such as ex situ conservation would not be included. also this estimate is based on extrapolation of figures for the protection of biodiversity on agricultural land from only one study to the global level and thus must be treated with great caution.
what will be essential to manage environments appropriately in the face of future changes?
understanding interactions between global change drivers will be essential to manage environments appropriately in the face of future changes
How is the land use change expected to be?
land use change is expected to continue to be a major driver in the tropics, while the magnitude of temperature change is expected to be greatest towards the poles.65,66in addition the impact of any given temperature rise will differ between species and between ecosystems and may cross critical thresholds in some places
How were the effects of habitat loss on biodiversity scored?
the effects of habitat loss on biodiversity were simply scored as a binomial variable (negative vs non-negative), potentially missing important quantitative effects
understanding interactions between global change drivers will be essential to manage environments appropriately in the face of future changes.1,2,45an increasing number of studies have begun to examine these combined effects on biodiversity, although studies exploring true interaction effects are less common. ultimately, we need to tease apart the complexity caused by interactions between drivers. mantyka-pringle et al.64collated 1319 studies on the effects of habitat loss from around the globe and conducted a meta-analysis on interactions between habitat loss effects and climate. they found that the effects of habitat loss were greatest in areas with higher mean temperatures and where mean precipitation had decreased over time. this led to the conclusion that 'management strategies should focus towards areas with warmer climates, especially those that are more susceptible to precipitation change'. however, such a conclusion may be premature, because of the limited nature of the input data to this analysis. the effects of habitat loss on biodiversity were simply scored as a binomial variable (negative vs non-negative), potentially missing important quantitative effects. more importantly, however, the degree of habitat loss itself was not included in the analysis, presumably because data were not available. therefore, the authors could not control for confounding correlations between habitat loss and climate variables (they did test for correlations between total habitat area and climate, but habitat area and habitat loss are not the same). for example, the extent of habitat loss could be far greater in the tropics, leading to the erroneous conclusion that effects on biodiversity are due to interactions with climate, when they are really to due to direct effects from greater habitat loss, reflecting increasing human populations, and a variety of socioeconomic factors. nevertheless, such studies attempting to understand the combined effects of land use change and climate change across space are a step in the right direction. we would expect global differences in the magnitude of these individual drivers. land use change is expected to continue to be a major driver in the tropics, while the magnitude of temperature change is expected to be greatest towards the poles.65,66in addition the impact of any given temperature rise will differ between species and between ecosystems and may cross critical thresholds in some places (e.g., changes in biotope at upper elevation tree lines) but not others. within countries, there may be regional differences in the intensity of land use and climate change. for example, in the uk, high intensity arable agriculture tends to occur more in the south and east, while projections of changes in temperature and rainfall also vary regionally.33,67in catalonia, stefanescu et al.68found that increasing aridity and land use intensification are primarily responsible for declines in generalist butterfly species in lowland regions, while climate warming and land abandonment have caused serious declines in specialist species in mountain areas. these spatial patterns in land use and climate change cause spatial patterns in the impact on species. for example, species richness of californian butterflies has declined at lower elevations where land use is more intensive. this direct effect reduces the pool of species available to colonize higher elevations and exploit new opportunities provided by climate warming.55in the uk, a qualitative analysis of several species indicated that projected impacts of climate change on species' varies regionally and that the most appropriate adaptation actions also depend on local variation in the quality, area, and configuration of key habitats.69studies such as these highlight the difficulties in teasing apart the quantitative effects of land use and climate change. nevertheless, it is possible to qualitatively distinguish a number of ways in which climate and land us change interact to affect biodiversity. the most well established types of interaction are described below:
What conclusions can we draw from this voluntary work on climate change?
one conclusion that may be drawn from our work is that efforts to encourage farmers to participate in voluntary climate initiatives, ought to consider framing climate impacts and behavioral goals concordantly; either in an global context for mitigation or a specific local context in the case of adaptation
Which agricultural practices have ramifications for mitigation and adaptation?
many agricultural practices have ramifications for both mitigation and adaptation that involve a complex mix of benefits and tradeoffs that require farmers to balance multiple economic and environmental objectives [13,35,36]. in some cases, a new agricultural practice may reduce ghg emissions while also minimizing economic and/or climaterelated risks. for other management strategies important economic and practical drawbacks will no doubt influence agricultural decision making more than climate-related concerns. for instance, in our study practices that improve energy or n use efficiency can often reduce production costs while maintaining yields, and as a consequence may be seen by farmers as a way to simultaneously mitigate and adapt to climate change
How do extension programs allow farmers to examine the pros and cons of individual agricultural practices?
as such, outreach programs that allow farmers to examine the pros and cons of individual agricultural practices by framing each in a global and local context may help facilitate agricultural decisions that are well-aligned with farmers' economic goals, their past experience, and their beliefs and concerns regarding climate change. furthermore, having farmers consider on how certain agricultural practices address both global and local concerns may even help them span the gap between good intentions and successful implementation
one conclusion that may be drawn from our work is that efforts to encourage farmers to participate in voluntary climate initiatives, ought to consider framing climate impacts and behavioral goals concordantly; either in an global context for mitigation or a specific local context in the case of adaptation. the strength of this approach is that people tend to pay closer attention to persuasive messages that are able to match attitudes and desired behavior according to their levels of construal but while it seems intuitive to keep mitigation and adaptation messages focused on their respective global and local spheres, emerging evidence suggests that a combination of global and local framing may prove even more effective in stimulating the adoption of sustainable behaviors [17,19,30]. many agricultural practices have ramifications for both mitigation and adaptation that involve a complex mix of benefits and tradeoffs that require farmers to balance multiple economic and environmental objectives [13,35,36]. in some cases, a new agricultural practice may reduce ghg emissions while also minimizing economic and/or climaterelated risks. for other management strategies important economic and practical drawbacks will no doubt influence agricultural decision making more than climate-related concerns. for instance, in our study practices that improve energy or n use efficiency can often reduce production costs while maintaining yields, and as a consequence may be seen by farmers as a way to simultaneously mitigate and adapt to climate change. within the context of clt, practices that offer clear co-benefits to one's self and society are likely to engage both psychologically proximate and distant mindsets. as such, outreach programs that allow farmers to examine the pros and cons of individual agricultural practices by framing each in a global and local context may help facilitate agricultural decisions that are well-aligned with farmers' economic goals, their past experience, and their beliefs and concerns regarding climate change. furthermore, having farmers consider on how certain agricultural practices address both global and local concerns may even help them span the gap between good intentions and successful implementation.
Why is continued long-term monitoring of vadose zone water and chemical-flux response necessary?
continued long-term monitoring of vadose zone water and chemical-fl ux response is necessary for improved understanding of subsurface response to climate variability
Why is hydrolic response to climate variability of particular importance?
hydrologic response to climate variability of a few years to decades is of particular importance because of the tangible implications for water-resource management on timescales within an individual human's lifetime
What variability has been identified as a fundamental and important hydrologic control on groundwater resources of the High Plains aquifer?
natural climate variability (enso, nams, pdo, and amo) has been identifi ed as a fundamental and important hydrologic control on groundwater resources of the high plains aquifer
natural climate variability (enso, nams, pdo, and amo) has been identifi ed as a fundamental and important hydrologic control on groundwater resources of the high plains aquifer. this research provides valuable insight for improved understanding of interannual to interdecadal climatic forcings on vadose zone water and chemical movement of the high plains aquifer. better predictions of future recharge and vulnerability of groundwater quality is critical for management of aquifer sustainability in light of persistent and recurring natural climatecycle forcings and potential global climate change. hydrologic response to climate variability of a few years to decades is of particular importance because of the tangible implications for water-resource management on timescales within an individual human's lifetime. continued long-term monitoring of vadose zone water and chemical-fl ux response is necessary for improved understanding of subsurface response to climate variability.
What dangers do the poor, elderly, and sick in the burgeoning megacities of the world face?
the poor, elderly, and sick in the burgeoning megacities of the world face increased risk of death and illness from more severe heat and humidity
How does riverine flooding negatively impact dense populations  in developing countries?
dense populations in developing countries face increased threats from riverine flooding and its associated impacts on nutrition and disease
What has the  study of climate change largely focused on the past defade?
over the past decade, studies of climate change have largely focussed on issues of science--how releases of greenhouse gases accumulate in the atmosphere and interact with biogeophysical processes to alter attributes of climate
unfortunately, it is unrealistic to expect that positive and negative effects will balance out, because they will register their impacts on different regions, ecosystems, and people. and many of these regions and peoples will be highly vulnerable and poorly equipped to cope with the major changes in climate that may occur. further, many people and places are already under severe stress vulnerability arising from other environmental and socioeconomic forces, including those emanating from globalization processes. the last thing they need is to have to add climatechange impacts to the likes of population growth, increasing concentrations of populations in megacities, poverty and poor nutrition, accumulating levels of atmospheric, land, and water contamination, a growing dependence upon distant global markets, growing gender and class inequalities, the ravages of the aids epidemic, and politically corrupt governments. climate change will produce varied effects that will interact with these other stresses and multiple vulnerabilities, and they will take their toll particularly among the most exposed and poorest people of the world. as we have stated elsewhere (kasperson and kasperson 2001, 274-275): "the lesson from climate change is a more general one: risks do not register their effects in the they occur in particular regions and places, to particular peoples, and to specific ecosystems. global environmental risks will not be the first insult or perturbation in the various regions and locales of the world; rather, they will be the latest in a series of pressures and stresses that will add to (and interact with) what has come before, what is ongoing, and what will come in the future." recognizing and understanding this differential vulnerability is a key to understanding the meaning of climate change. and understanding both the nature of the stresses that climate change will exert upon ecological and human systems and the extent of their vulnerabilities to those stresses is essential. over the past decade, studies of climate change have largely focussed on issues of science--how releases of greenhouse gases accumulate in the atmosphere and interact with biogeophysical processes to alter attributes of climate. in-depth analysis of the impacts of climate change, and particularly the impacts on the most vulnerable people and places is only beginning. it will be the commanding task for climate-related studies over the next decade. and yet, we do know something about the major types of vulnerability that exist and about where to find the most vulnerable regions and places. indeed, it is easy to identify some of the most vulnerable human and ecological systems. one-third to one-half of the world's population already lacks adequate clean water, and climate change--due to increased temperature and droughts in many areas--will add to the severity of these issues. many developing countries (especially in africa) are likely to suffer declines in agricultural production and food security, particularly among small farmers and isolated rural populations. increased flooding from sea-level rise will ravage low-lying coastal areas in many parts of the globe, in both rich and poor countries, leading to loss of life and infrastructure damages from more severe storms as well as loss of wetlands and mangroves. small-island states in particular face the prospect of such devastating effects that it may prove necessary for some peoples to abandon their island homes and migrate to other locales. the poor, elderly, and sick in the burgeoning megacities of the world face increased risk of death and illness from more severe heat and humidity. dense populations in developing countries face increased threats from riverine flooding and its associated impacts on nutrition and disease. these threats only suggest, of course, the broad panoply of effects that will confront the most vulnerable regions of the world. it is the rates and patterns of climate change and their interaction with place-specific vulnerabilities that will drive the realities as to the eventual severities of these effects and the potential effectiveness of mitigation efforts and human adaptation.
What has fieldwork in Senegal revealed?
in senegal, fieldwork revealed that environmental changes negatively affect agricultural livelihoods, and contribute to migration through different mechanisms
What did most migrants say?
most migrants who already migrated said they would return home to the countryside if agricultural livelihoods improved
What conflict seems to be occuring more frequently?
conflict over access to land seems to be increasing
in senegal, fieldwork revealed that environmental changes negatively affect agricultural livelihoods, and contribute to migration through different mechanisms. for areas where irrigated agriculture is possible, farmers living close to the senegal river expect their way of life will continue to be possible and therefore do not intend to migrate in the future. but in areas like the peanut basin, where land degradation is severe, interviewees said they plan to move away if agricultural livelihoods do not improve. most migrants who already migrated said they would return home to the countryside if agricultural livelihoods improved. in senegal experts observe an increasing movement of people back to the countryside due to the global economic crisis. however, that coping mechanism is running into counter-pressures because areas people are returning to are in many cases already degraded. conflict over access to land seems to be increasing.67
Does each element have a function?
each element on the right-hand side of (1) has a different role
What are the attitudes in this structure?
first, in this framework, e captures not only attitudes toward inter-generational distribution, but also toward risk and intra-generational distribution
D is broad?
third, in the context of climate-change policy, d is largely about ethical discrimination according to date of birth (apart from the probability of planetary demise: see chapter 2 of the review
each element on the right-hand side of (1) has a different role. first, in this framework, e captures not only attitudes toward inter-generational distribution, but also toward risk and intra-generational distribution. second, g is a feature of model structures and assumptions, not ethics. higher g gives not only a higher social discount rate but also earlier emissions and hence earlier and higher damages from ghgs, as well as increasing adaptive capacity. third, in the context of climate-change policy, d is largely about ethical discrimination according to date of birth (apart from the probability of planetary demise: see chapter 2 of the review).
how many years of period responses recalled by interviewees?
agricultural seasons and responses recalled by interviewees for the 10 year period
what is the reciprocal relationships between friends and family to exchange services and goods ?
the role of informal village institutions in livelihood coping responses informal networks within a village are central to the everyday system of dependence; 'bonded ties' are the reciprocal relationships between friends and family to exchange services and goods
what are the active reciprocal links with others?
to maintain these informal networks people pursue active reciprocal links with others, such as the sharing of information, emotional support, cash loans, food, or labor exchange. maintaining these links offers individuals and households the opportunity to give and receive in times of difficulty and helps them to buffer shocks
households perform more than one type of coping response. note: data collected over the 2002-4 agricultural seasons and responses recalled by interviewees for the 10 year period prior to the fieldwork those associated with generating economic income and support (corbett 1988, cox 1998). it is the social structures within the village that form the basis of informal networks by binding individuals together, i.e., bonding relationships, and connecting them with others from different social and economic strata both within and beyond the village, i.e., bridging relationships (putnam 1993). the role of informal village institutions in livelihood coping responses informal networks within a village are central to the everyday system of dependence; 'bonded ties' are the reciprocal relationships between friends and family to exchange services and goods (brouwer and nhassengo 2006). we found informal institutions to be exclusive, defined by kinship, neighborhood, or friendship, and were loose, spontaneous, and changeable. for example, closure of a lehurutshe local farming cooperative in area 1 (north west province, south africa) had forced friends in the nearby village of mantsie to work together for the economic reason of supplying horticultural produce. to maintain these informal networks people pursue active reciprocal links with others, such as the sharing of information, emotional support, cash loans, food, or labor exchange. maintaining these links offers individuals and households the opportunity to give and receive in times of difficulty and helps them to buffer shocks. however, only households that regularly invested in networks were able to make them part of their risk-adverse livelihood strategy. for example, in nwadjahane village (area 4 in gaza province, mozambique) informal village institutions have remained important with high rates of reciprocal labor exchange (osbahr et al. 2008). villagers became particularly dependent on these noncash
What percentage of consumers indicated willingness to change their meat consumption to reduce emissions?
54 per cent were unwilling to change their meat consumption
What percentage of consumers indicated willingness to change their dairy consumption to reduce emissions?
62 per cent were unwilling to change their dairy consumption
Are consumers with low awareness of a sector's contribution to climate change more or less likely to indicate willingness to change their behaviour in order to reduce emissions?
consumers with low awareness of a sector's contribution to climate change are less likely to indicate willingness to change their behaviour in order to reduce emissions
consumers with low awareness of a sector's contribution to climate change are less likely to indicate willingness to change their behaviour in order to reduce emissions. compared with other sectors, the awareness gap appears particularly problematic for livestock. for example, just over one-third (35 per cent) of respondents unaware of transport's contribution to climate change stated they were unlikely to change their transport behaviour72 in order to reduce emissions. in the case of those unaware of the contribution of meat and dairy production to climate change, 54 per cent were unwilling to change their meat consumption, and 62 per cent were unwilling to change their dairy consumption. this difference is highly unlikely to have occurred by chance.73
What factors are considered by the climate module?
the climate module considers the impact of greenhouse gas emissions and sulphate aerosols on the level of global mean temperature
What is the connection pointed out between emission of sulphates and energy sector. ?
the emission of sulphates is directly linked to the combustion of fossil fuels in the energy sector
within the remind-r framework, the climate module is represented as a set of equations that restrict the welfare optimization. this version of remind-r inte13 grates a simple climate model (petschel-held et al., 1999). for basic model equations as well as for parameter values and initial values see kriegler and bruckner (2004). the climate module considers the impact of greenhouse gas emissions and sulphate aerosols on the level of global mean temperature. the emission of sulphates is directly linked to the combustion of fossil fuels in the energy sector. the radiative forcing of both the non-co2 greenhouse gases and the co2 emissions from land use change is taken into account by exogenous scenarios. the former follows the sres b2-scenario (model aim), the latter combines the same scenario type with the additional assumption of frozen ch4 and n2o emissions after 2005. the climate sensitivity as the most important parameter of the climate module is set to 2.8*c. in section 4.6 we briefly discuss the sensitivity of mitigation policies on this parameter.
How many individuals does the hospital serve?
the hospital serves an urban population of about 10 million individuals
How many cases of diarrhoea does the hospital treat each year?
the hospital serves an urban population of about 10 million individuals and provides free treatment to more than 100 000 cases of diarrhoea each year
Are there biases in this study?
this study is not free from biases
rotavirus infections and climate variability 1287 hospitalized diarrhoea varies from 24% to 45% between world regions [5, 38-40], the results could also improve estimates of regional health risks due to diarrhoeal disease associated with global climate change. a strength of this dataset is the relative completeness of coverage of the population in dhaka. the hospital serves an urban population of about 10 million individuals and provides free treatment to more than 100 000 cases of diarrhoea each year. therefore, the data used in this study are reasonably representative of the underlying severe diarrhoeal morbidity of the population in dhaka. less severe cases would be less likely to be included, but this does not pose a threat to the validity of the comparisons over time, which is the subject of this study. however, this study is not free from biases. although cases excluded because the stool sample also included v. cholerae were most likely to have attended the hospital because of the cholera, those that would have attended in the absence of cholera should have been included. it was impossible to identify these cases, however, and the total of such comorbidity was small. there is also the possibility of residual confounding, although the robustness of the results to varying degrees of seasonal control was reassuring. there are important uncertainties related to the extrapolation of the relationships in this study to others with different climate and geography. in particular, the observed association between river level and the number of rotavirus infections may be specific to places characterized by low land with bodies of water that are vulnerable to flooding. the association may also be greatly dependent on the degree of hygiene and sanitation in an area. therefore, these findings may not pertain to other places. in this study, weather factors were found to explain departures of the number of rotavirus diarrhoea cases from the usual seasonal pattern. this does not mean that these factors can explain the usual seasonal patterns themselves. the transmission of rotavirus is complex and multifactorial, involving both host and environmental factors. some of these environmental factors have not been considered in this study, which suggests that temperature, relative humidity and river level might be important environmental determinants of rotavirus infectivity. further work to clarify the role of weather in the seasonality of rotavirus infections in bangladesh and elsewhere would be of interest. acknowledgements we gratefully acknowledge the support of the icddr,b. this study was supported by daiwa foundation small grants. m.h. was supported by the foundation for advanced studies on international development and glaxosmithkline. declaration of interest none. references
What requires the least modification of the power cycle?
the fi rst option is the simplest to implement, and requires the least modi fi cation of the power cycle
What is most suitable for retro fit of existing power plants?
the fi rst approach is most suitable for retro fi t of existing power plants
What relies on the development of robust and efficient fuel cells for high-temperature operation, that are also affordable?
the last option relies on the development of robust and ef fi cient fuel cells for high-temperature operation, that are also affordable
the fi rst option is the simplest to implement, and requires the least modi fi cation of the power cycle, while the last is the least technologically developed. the fi rst approach is most suitable for retro fi t of existing power plants since it requires least modi fi cation of the power plant itself. however, it is not necessarily the most ef fi cient low-c plant layout, and that motivates investigating other options. the second and third options may require some special equipment, such as co2 gas turbine for oxyfuel combustion and h2 turbine for precombustion separation of carbon dioxide. in the case of coal, precombustion separation requires gasi fi cation in an integrated gasi fi cation combined cycle (igcc) plant, shown previously. the last option relies on the development of robust and ef fi cient fuel cells for high-temperature operation, that are also affordable. in general the ef fi ciency penalty of co2 capture depends on the fuel, and the optimal design may not be the same for coal and ng. note that in gasi fi cation based coal power plants, h2s is captured from the fl ue gases before these gases are used in a gas turbine or a fuel cell (or before they are emitted in the exhaust gases since sulfur compounds are heavily regulated). it is possible that the total acid gas (co2 th h2s) can be removed in the same step (instead of removing the two components separately), thus improving the economics of the capture strategy. 5.2.1. post-combustion capture as mentioned before, the simplest carbon dioxide capture strategy is the post-combustion capture option, in which carbon dioxide is removed from the fl ue gases using chemical scrubbing techniques, as shown in fig. 25 depending on the fuel used, co2 concentration in the products can be as low as 3% for lean burning ng and much higher for coal plants, with precise values depending
What are being used worldwide?
hydropower
What was the impact hydropower had on climate change?
usable capacity under climate change to uncertainties in h estimates are very small
What is another way that hydropower impacted climate change?
the impacts on relative changes in hydropower usable capacity under climate change are limited, because uncertainties in h affect simulated hydropower usable capacity for both the future and control period
we found that absolute values of simulated hydropower for 1981-2000 (based on wfdei) are quite sensitive to parameter uncertainties of h. a decrease and increase in h of 20% changed the absolute values of hydropower usable capacity worldwide with -7.8% and +6.6%, respectively (see table s1 for results of different continents). however, sensitivities of simulated changes in hydropower usable capacity under climate change to uncertainties in h estimates are very small. sensitivity analyses for the climate scenarios show almost similar impacts of climate change on simulated hydropower usable capacity for different estimates of h (i.e. baseline value and under -20%, -10%, +10% and +20%) (see fig s9a for rcp8.5 for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s). the impacts on relative changes in hydropower usable capacity under climate change are limited, because uncertainties in h affect simulated hydropower usable capacity for both the future and control period.
What is biological unit process?
biological unit processes: treatment methods in which the removal of the contaminants occurs by means of biological activity (e.g. carbonaceous organic matter removal, nitrification, denitrification
How is pollutant removed from domestic sewage?
the main mechanisms are listed in table 4.3. table 4.4 lists the main processes, operations, and treatment systems frequently used in the treatment of domestic sewage as a function of the pollutant to be removed
Which climate does the book address for frequently used systems?
the technology of wastewater treatment has various other processes and variants, but the present book addresses only the most frequently used systems in warm-climate countries
biological unit processes: treatment methods in which the removal of the contaminants occurs by means of biological activity (e.g. carbonaceous organic matter removal, nitrification, denitrification) various mechanisms can act separately or simultaneously in the removal of the pollutants, depending on the process being used. the main mechanisms are listed in table 4.3. table 4.4 lists the main processes, operations, and treatment systems frequently used in the treatment of domestic sewage as a function of the pollutant to be removed. these methods are employed in the liquid phase (or liquid lines), which corresponds to the main flow of the liquid (sewage) in sewage treatment works. on the other hand, the solid phase (covered in section 5) is associated with the solid by-products generated in the treatment, notably sludge. the present text concentrates on the biological treatment of wastewater, which is the reason why physical - chemical treatment systems are not covered (these depend on the addition of chemical products and are used more frequently for the treatment of industrial wastewaters). table 4.5 presents a summary of the main secondary level domestic sewage treatment systems. the technology of wastewater treatment has various other processes and variants, but the present book addresses only the most frequently used systems in warm-climate countries. the flowsheets of the systems described in this table are presented in figures 4.1a-f. the integration between the various operations and processes listed in table 4.5 can be seen in the flowsheets. in all flowsheets, besides going to the receiving water body, the effluent may be reused (agricultural industrial other) if conditions so permit. in order to allow a better understanding of the main wastewater treatment systems, the remainder of the chapter is devoted to a preliminary description of them. further details may be found in various chapters throughout this book. overview of wastewater treatment systems 169
Where and When did the CCGS Amundsen made a survey on the Canadian Beaufort Shelf (CBS) ?
the canadian icebreaker ccgs amundsen made a survey of the canadian beaufort shelf (cbs) on 14 october 2007. sampling began on the central shelf, where the legacy of upwelling was seen in the high salinity of surface waters near the coast
What is name of the model which predicted the upwelling of core correctly?
the upwelling core was encountered when the ship moved eastward and surface salinity increased to a maximum of 33.7 %0 off cape bathurst, consistent with model predictions of topographically - enhanced upwelling in this area williams and carmack 2008
In which gulf temperature, salinity and nutrient characteristics of surface water locked beneath 175m?
there, surface waters matched the temperature, salinity and nutrient characteristics of those normally locked beneath 175 m in central amundsen gulf
prior to overwintering, the canadian icebreaker ccgs amundsen made a survey of the canadian beaufort shelf (cbs) on 14 october 2007. sampling began on the central shelf, where the legacy of upwelling was seen in the high salinity of surface waters near the coast (figure 1a). these showed positive salt anomalies of 7 to 10 %0 relative to previous years mucci et al. 2010]. the upwelling core was encountered when the ship moved eastward and surface salinity increased to a maximum of 33.7 %0 off cape bathurst, consistent with model predictions of topographically - enhanced upwelling in this area williams and carmack 2008]. there, surface waters matched the temperature, salinity and nutrient characteristics of those normally locked beneath 175 m in central amundsen gulf. the highest surface no3 -
With what the results from the percentile analysis are at variance at first sight?
at first sight the results from the percentile analysis are at variance with the tracking analysis
With what the results from the percentile analysis are at variance in reality?
in reality the differences are easily explained by the fact that the percentile analysis is an eulerian analysis, which is sensitive to where the storms are found and hence to the shift in the storm tracks poleward as discussed
What indicates Figure 10?
figure 10 indicates that there are no major changes in the intensities of the storms over a hemisphere
at first sight the results from the percentile analysis are at variance with the tracking analysis shown in fig. 10, but in reality the differences are easily explained by the fact that the percentile analysis is an eulerian analysis, which is sensitive to where the storms are found and hence to the shift in the storm tracks poleward as discussed. figure 10 indicates that there are no major changes in the intensities of the storms over a hemisphere. in fact if we compare the results in fig. 12 with the spatial statistics from the tracking, using the wind speed for intensity, then the changes in mean intensity are seen to be consistent with the changes in percentiles.
What have larger scale terrestrial experiments utilising as a feature of early high-profile climate change research (Melillo et al. 2002).
larger scale terrestrial experiments utilising substrate warmers, in particular, were a feature of early high-profile climate change research (melillo et al. 2002
What have smaller scale experiments in terrestrial settings have utilised as both fixed means and fixed increments?
smaller scale experiments in terrestrial settings have utilised chambers and have applied temperature treatments as both fixed means and fixed increments
What do climate change experiments in terrestrial settings consider ?
climate change experiments in terrestrial settings have tended to consider the effects of not only temperature but also rainfall and increased atmospheric co2 concentrations (the latter two are not considered in this review
terrestrial ecosystems terrestrial studies are by far the most common in the literature, with 60% of reviewed studies being terrestrial, despite the shorter time period which was considered for the literature review. climate change experiments in terrestrial settings have tended to consider the effects of not only temperature but also rainfall and increased atmospheric co2 concentrations (the latter two are not considered in this review). smaller scale experiments in terrestrial settings have utilised chambers and have applied temperature treatments as both fixed means and fixed increments. larger scale terrestrial experiments utilising substrate warmers, in particular, were a feature of early high-profile climate change research (melillo et al. 2002). these approaches logistically lend themselves to fixed increment treatments, and these predominate in the published terrestrial climate change literature (table 1). although there has been recognition for some years of the need to incorporate extreme events into studies of climate change impacts on terrestrial ecosystems (jentsch et al. 2007), these continue to be the exception in studies of the effects
What does quantifying and plotting the Environmental Susceptibility of sites against their social Adaptive Capacity provide?
a framework to integrate these two considerations
What have biodiverse regions with low Environmental Susceptibility generally been considered as?
a high priority for conservation using protected area management
we propose that quantifying and plotting the environmental susceptibility of sites against their social adaptive capacity provides a framework to integrate these two considerations and gives important insights for conservation planning (fig. 1 a ). this distinguishes four domains where differing policy and conservation activities are required. biodiverse regions with low environmental susceptibility are refugia and have generally been considered a high priority for conservation using protected area management (sanderson et al. 2002). however, differing socioeconomic conditions in these regions may limit the viability of this management approach. protected areas may, indeed, be appropriate in sites where adaptive capacity is high because local communities can readily adapt to restrictions and take advantage of new opportunities, such as increased tourism. conversely, communities with low adaptive capacity are poorly equipped to cope with even short-term restrictions on resource use imposed by no-take areas. consequently, these communities may be unwilling or unable to comply with protection measures and adding more no-take areas may merely lead to a further proliferation of ineffectual so-called "paper parks" (mcclanahan 1999). these low environmentalsusceptibility and low adaptive capacity regions (fig. 1 a will first require investments in poverty alleviation, infrastructure, social capital, and alternative incomes to develop adaptive capacity. once local capacity is enhanced, these regions are more likely to be able to take advantage of the opportunities arising from conservation and successfully implement management strategies. prior to these developments, management options with minimal social costs are required (mcclanahan et al. 2006).
In 1896 what did the Swedish scientist Svante Arrhenius suggest? He suggested that human activity could substantially heat the Earth
in 1896, the swedish scientist svante arrhenius suggested that human activity could substantially warm the earth by adding co2 to the atmosphere
What is the relevance of your predictions? Your predictions were later confirmed independently by Thomas Chamberlin
his predictions were subsequently independently confi rmed by thomas chamberlin
What was thought at that time? It was thought that this effect on human beings was diminished by other influences on the global climate
at that time, however, such eff ect on human beings was thought to be dwarfed by other infl uences on global climate
in 1896, the swedish scientist svante arrhenius suggested that human activity could substantially warm the earth by adding co2 to the atmosphere. his predictions were subsequently independently confi rmed by thomas chamberlin.2 at that time, however, such eff ect on human beings was thought to be dwarfed by other infl uences on global climate, such as sunspots and ocean circulation. however, these observations went unappreciated until recently. the establishment of the ipcc in 1988 was a pivotal move by the world community to address this issue, and has made a huge diff erence to the evolution of a shared understanding of climate change and to the stimulus for more and better research and modelling.
Where has MacLeod reported a high incidence of harbour porpoises?
scottish north sea waters
What were Scottish harbour porpisies dying from?
starvation as a result of dwindling sand eel stocks
What is the sand eel decline linked to?
climate change
macleod et al. (2007) have recently reported a high incidence of harbour porpoises in scottish north sea waters dying from starvation as a result of dwindling sand eel stocks. the sand eel decline is linked to climate change. a baseline period (spring 1993-2001) was compared with data from spring 2002 and 2003. diet was found to have changed between these two periods with sand eels making up a much smaller proportion of stomach contents in the key period of the spring in recent years. in the baseline period only 5% of stranded porpoises examined died of starvation, whereas starvation was the cause of death of 33% from 2002 and 2003. the sand eel spawning stock biomass and recruitment in the north sea were substantially lower in 2002 and 2003 than during the baseline period. macleod, c.d., begon~a santos, m., reid, r.j., scott, b.e. pierce, g.j. (2006) linking sand eel consumption and the likelihood of starvation in harbour porpoises in the scottish north sea: could climate change mean more starving porpoises? biology letters doi:10.1098/ rsbl.2006.0588, published online.
What was the most common change that the Mahbubnagar respondents made in response to the rainfall of 2008?
cultivating crops that used less water
What change would Mahbubnagar farmers most frequently make in a year of normal rainfall?
farmers in mahbubnagar would change their cropping pattern
What percentage of Anantapur farmers made no changes to their cropping and livestock practices in a year with normal rainfall?
63 percent
in response to the low and late-arriving rainfall of 2008, the majority of the mahbubnagar respondents made some sort of change or a combination of changes to their cropping and livestock practices, the most frequent being cultivating crops that used less water (50 percent) and changing to more edible crops (37 percent). indeed, rainfall was the primary factor among almost all respondents (96 percent) in influencing changes in cropping patterns. in a year in which there was more rain than 2008 (i.e. normal rainfall), farmers in mahbubnagar would change their cropping pattern (48 percent) and grow more kinds of crops (39 percent). similar percentages of men and women responded with this preference. meanwhile, in anantapur, in response to an above-normal amount of rainfall, 63 percent of farmers made no change to their cropping and livestock practices while 25
What is the critical factor in the performance of overland flow systems
the uniform distribution of the wastewater on the whole width of the ramp is a critical factor in the performance of the system
In how many different technique's the effluent can be distributed
the effluent can be distributed by three different techniques
From where liquid should by either lowor high-pressure sprinklers or by perforated tubes should be started
its application by either lowor high-pressure sprinklers or by perforated tubes should be started from the top of each slope
the following main aspects in relation to the construction of overland flow systems should be taken into consideration (usepa, 1981; wpcf, 1990 and coraucci filho et al. 2001): storage. it is necessary to build a storage tank sufficient to store the effluent on the days when there is no application. the liquid should be stirred during this period. distribution of the sewage. the uniform distribution of the wastewater on the whole width of the ramp is a critical factor in the performance of the system. its application by either lowor high-pressure sprinklers or by perforated tubes should be started from the top of each slope. the effluent can be distributed by three different techniques (see also table 29.3):
Why are governments developing initiatives that promote new practices among famers?
in response to agriculture's vulnerability and contribution to climate change, many governments are developing initiatives that promote the adoption of mitigation and adaptation practices among farmers. since most climate policies affecting agriculture rely on voluntary efforts by individual farmers, success requires a sound understanding of the factors that motivate farmers to change practices
What variables influence people's environmental behavior?
recent evidence suggests that past experience with the effects of climate change and the psychological distance associated with people's concern for global and local impacts can influence environmental behavior
What was the main factor for farmer adaption in rural California?
perceived changes in water availability had significant effects on farmers' intention to adopt mitigation and adaptation strategies, which were mediated through global and local concerns respectively. this suggests that mitigation is largely motivated by psychologically distant concerns and beliefs about climate change, while adaptation is driven by psychologically proximate concerns for local impacts
in response to agriculture's vulnerability and contribution to climate change, many governments are developing initiatives that promote the adoption of mitigation and adaptation practices among farmers. since most climate policies affecting agriculture rely on voluntary efforts by individual farmers, success requires a sound understanding of the factors that motivate farmers to change practices. recent evidence suggests that past experience with the effects of climate change and the psychological distance associated with people's concern for global and local impacts can influence environmental behavior. here we surveyed farmers in a representative rural county in california's central valley to examine how their intention to adopt mitigation and adaptation practices is influenced by previous climate experiences and their global and local concerns about climate change. perceived changes in water availability had significant effects on farmers' intention to adopt mitigation and adaptation strategies, which were mediated through global and local concerns respectively. this suggests that mitigation is largely motivated by psychologically distant concerns and beliefs about climate change, while adaptation is driven by psychologically proximate concerns for local impacts. this match between attitudes and behaviors according to the psychological distance at which they are cognitively construed indicates that policy and outreach initiatives may benefit by framing climate impacts and behavioral goals concordantly; either in a global context for mitigation or a local context for adaptation.
What is the difficulty for getting patent?
a further difficulty is that the propensity to patent is just partly controlled by the variable iprjt, which only reflects cross-border heterogeneit
HOw patenting propensity also varies?
 yet we know that patenting propensity also varies much across sectors and technologies. we mitigate this problem by running sector-specific regressions
How the effect can be estimated ?
the remaining unobserved part is captured by the random term gjt in (5). if gjt is uncorrelated with the regressors on the right-hand side, then this effect can be estimated using a random-effects model
a further difficulty is that the propensity to patent is just partly controlled by the variable iprjt, which only reflects cross-border heterogeneity. yet we know that patenting propensity also varies much across sectors and technologies. we mitigate this problem by running sector-specific regressions. the remaining unobserved part is captured by the random term gjt in (5). if gjt is uncorrelated with the regressors on the right-hand side, then this effect can be estimated using a random-effects model. but if the random term is correlated, then estimates are biased. a fixed effect estimator cannot totally fix this problem, since this effect varies over time. for our estimations, we opted for a random-effects model for the following reasons. first, key variables such as iprjtor trade_blocijtdo not vary much across time. they are thus highly correlated with country-pair specific effects, which leads to inefficient estimates of their coefficients when using a fixed effect model. second, fixed effect estimation causes all groups with zero patent transferred during the 1990-2003 period to be dropped from the regression, including many potential technology suppliers, which induces a selection bias. for that same reason, we cannot perform the standard hausman test of the random versus fixed effects specification as the models are ran on different samples.
Which method is widely applied to estimate economic benefits of environmental policy interventions?
the cv method is a stated preference technique that has been widely applied over the past 30 years to estimate economic benefits of environmental policy interventions
In which survey respondent are asked to indicate the maximum amount of money they are willing to sacrifice to receive an improvement in environmental quality?
in a cv survey, respondent are asked to indicate the maximum amount of money they are willing to sacrifice to receive an improvement in environmental quality
which is measured by estimating the compensating surplus?
wtp is measured by estimating the compensating surplus - the amount of income paid that leaves the households at the initial level of well-being
the cv method is a stated preference technique that has been widely applied over the past 30 years to estimate economic benefits of environmental policy interventions. the method employs public surveys to ask the relevant group of population about their willingness to pay (wtp) to protect an environmental good by constructing a hypothetical market or referendum. in a cv survey, respondent are asked to indicate the maximum amount of money they are willing to sacrifice to receive an improvement in environmental quality. wtp is measured by estimating the compensating surplus - the amount of income paid that leaves the households at the initial level of well-being.
With what are the Oil palm plantations characterized?
are characterized by continued highintensity disturbances and habitat features that are strikingly different than those of the forests they often replace
How the oil palm matrix may be improved?
the oil palm matrix may be improved by (1) reducing field sizes and creating a patchwork of different aged plantations, (2) increasing connectivity by maintaining continuous tracts of same-age plantations through the landscape, and (3) minimizing the intensity of continued disturbances by using the variable retention method of rotating senescent plantations instead of clear cutting
In what conservation efforts should focus?
conservation efforts should therefore continue to focus on slowing deforestation by limiting oil palm expansion to existing degraded areas, of which there are plenty koh ghazoul 2010
oil palm plantations are characterized by continued highintensity disturbances and habitat features that are strikingly different than those of the forests they often replace. these conditions present a barrier to sensitive rainforest species and oil palm should never be considered a substitute for natural forests. ongoing conservation efforts should therefore continue to focus on slowing deforestation by limiting oil palm expansion to existing degraded areas, of which there are plenty koh ghazoul 2010 ). while oil palm plantations never regain the microclimate or vegetation structure of forests, specific habitat characteristics evolve following different trajectories, creating a heterogeneous habitat through time. our discussion highlights several potential methods to utilize temporal habitat heterogeneity to create a higher-quality landscape matrix. specifically, the oil palm matrix may be improved by (1) reducing field sizes and creating a patchwork of different aged plantations, (2) increasing connectivity by maintaining continuous tracts of same-age plantations through the landscape, and (3) minimizing the intensity of continued disturbances by using the variable retention method of rotating senescent plantations instead of clear cutting. these tools should be incorporated into landscape planning to improve the oil palm matrix quality, but cannot replace traditional conservation efforts.
What  problem caused by the co-movement of population?
the potential multicollinearity problem
What the results in Lutz et al. (2008) indicate?
indicate that the use of two broad age groups appears sufficient to explain global economic growth trends once the education dimension is added to the model
What the specification given by the equation (1) implies?
implies that the growth rate of total output depends on the growth rate of each one of the factors of production (tfp, the capital stock and each one of the population groups by age and educational attainment level
l bjk i,jkt (1) where yit is total output in country i at time t ait refers to total factor productivity (tfp), kit denotes the capital stock and li,jkt corresponds to the labor input in age group k k =1,2 denoting the younger and older age group) with educational attainment j (from j =0 no education to j =3 some tertiary education level attained). given the high correlation in the within-country dynamics of educational attainment by age group, there is a trade-off between using a low aggregation level in the age dimension and obtaining precise estimates of the model parameters. the potential multicollinearity problem caused by the co-movement of population by educational attainment calls therefore for the use of a small group of age groups in the specification of the economic growth regressions. the results in lutz et al. (2008) indicate that the use of two broad age groups appears sufficient to explain global economic growth trends once the education dimension is added to the model. given the persistence of population dynamics, the results of the estimation and projection exercise are not strongly affected by changing the age threshold that defines the older and younger group within the interval (30,45). we also performed a principal components analysis exercise on the education data by age group which confirmed that the average level of education and the difference between older and younger age groups appears sufficient to summarize the variation of each one of the human capital variables over time and across countries. such a specification as the one given by equation (1) implies that the growth rate of total output depends on the growth rate of each one of the factors of production (tfp, the capital stock and each one of the population groups by age and educational attainment level), [?] log yit [?] log ait a [?] log kit
How many porcent is the international family planing budget?
the international family-planning budget is currently only 10
In the grownth of population please write a function reason for that happen.
population growth is also a function of the level of education and development
What can effect on green  house-gas emission?
the high per-head emissions in more developed countries, any population growth there would have a disproportionate eff ect on greenhouse-gas emissions
because of the high per-head emissions in more developed countries, any population growth there would have a disproportionate eff ect on greenhouse-gas emissions but, in view of rising per-head emissions in many middle-income and low-income countries, reducing population growth in these settings could also have a substantial eff ect. thus, for example, a reduction of 1 billion people in the world population, each of whom were responsible for emissions of 1 tonne of carbon a year, could contribute to reducing carbon emissions by 1 gigatonne a year, the equivalent of those strategies advocated as stabilisation wedges. of course, there are many other reasons to support programmes that address the unmet need for eff ective family planning, including the reduction of infant and maternal mortality rates and, probably, of reducing poverty.87,88 the international family-planning budget is currently only 10% of that projected in 1994 to be required by 2005.89 the need to address climate change is a further argument to increase funding to family-planning programmes and to improve education about eff ective family planning for disadvantaged populations and particularly women. finally, population growth is also a function of the level of education and development. a properly fi nanced and incentivised clean-energy transition will stimulate education, create jobs, diminish disparities, and improve health and wellbeing; these factors can contribute to reducing population growth.
What should be integrated into the calibration of the correlative models?
information regarding genetic heterogeneity should be integrated into thecalibrationofthecorrelativemodels
What remain even less understood than consideration of the effects of biotic interactions?
the repercussions of geographic and temporal genetic heterogeneity in predictions of future species distributions remain even less understood than consideration of the effects of biotic interactions
How does Uncertainty enter into the modeling endeavor?
uncertainty enters into the modeling endeavor at every step, for example, due to error, bias, or incompleteness
of promise, dispersal/demographic simulations can consider the effects of local adaptation (or nonadaptive genetic differences) related to the species' response to abiotic variables, when such data are available.102,104,105ultimately, information regarding genetic heterogeneity should be integrated into thecalibrationofthecorrelativemodels,99forexample by explicit consideration of genetically differentiated entities within currently recognized species (table 5). overall, however, the repercussions of geographic and temporal genetic heterogeneity in predictions of future species distributions remain even less understood than consideration of the effects of biotic interactions. quantifying uncertainty very few studies quantify uncertainty in predictions of species niches and associated suitable areas, but emerging methodologies allow for this necessary, cross-cutting issue (table 5). uncertainty enters into the modeling endeavor at every step, for example, due to error, bias, or incompleteness
What perceptions are described in Part B?
part b describes the men and women farmers' perceptions of how these climatic changes have affected their livelihoods and food security
What perceptions coincide with the climate record?
men's and women's perceptions of climate variability coincide with the climate record
Why is it important to compare climatological terms with farmers' descriptions?
this comparison is important as it created a multi-perspective description of the climate conditions, which can serve as a foundation for designing participatory responses to climate variability and change
this section presents the key findings/results of the analysis of the data (climate, qualitative and survey). the results are divided into four parts following the design of the research objectives. part a presents the findings of the climate analysis juxtaposed with the men and women farmers' perceptions of climate variability trends over the past forty years. part b describes the men and women farmers' perceptions of how these climatic changes have affected their livelihoods and food security. part c focuses on the more recent past and summarizes the coping strategies used by men and women farmers in response to abnormal amounts of rainfall. finally, part d highlights the institutional context of the situation the farmers describe. these results are further discussed and interpreted in the final section. a men's and women's perceptions of climate variability coincide with the climate record this section juxtaposes a simple analysis of the climate variability of the study districts based on available data with the farmers' perceptions of climate (note that farmers use the term "weather" to mean both "weather" and "climate"). while climatological terms and farmers' descriptions are not always identical, it was possible to compare them. this comparison is important as it created a multi-perspective description of the climate conditions, which can serve as a foundation for designing participatory responses to climate variability and change.
Is it climate axes are same in two continents?
the main climatic axes are different in the two continents
How many the climate variable cluster groups?
the climate variables cluster into three main groups: in the top left are variables associated with high precipitation and isothermality, in the bottom right are variables associated with low precipitation and high seasonality, and in the bottom left are variables associated with high temperatures
How is the data sets in Amazonia and in Africa?
there is only a partial climatic overlap between the c 1-ha diversity data sets in amazonia and in africa
african diversity data set coverage appears less complete, lacking extreme values on the two main climatic gradients. note that the main climatic axes are different in the two continents. pca details and loadings of the 20 climatic variables on the pca axes for each continent are given in appendix s3. mean values of the climatic variables for the diversity data sets are presented in appendix s2, where they can also be compared with those of each rain forest region. the two c 1-ha diversity data sets (amazon and africa) are presented in a common pca climate space in fig. 4 (for details see appendix s4). the first two pca axes represent 65% of the climatic variability. the climate variables cluster into three main groups: in the top left are variables associated with high precipitation and isothermality, in the bottom right are variables associated with low precipitation and high seasonality, and in the bottom left are variables associated with high temperatures. note that in this data set the precipitation and seasonality variables are largely orthogonal to the temperature variables, and in particular that total annual precipitation (a p is almost exactly orthogonal to mean annual temperature (m t ). hence, we can rotate the pca axes in fig. 4 and adequately describe the climate space covered by the first two pca axes by plotting annual precipitation against annual temperature. as these two fundamental climatic variables are more intuitive than the pca axes and more readily available worldwide, we adopt them as our main axes of climate variability in our subsequent analysis. there is only a partial climatic overlap between the c 1-ha diversity data sets in amazonia and in africa (fig. 4). in amazonia, the main climatic gradient is related to precipitation variables and to precipitation and temperature seasonality (top left to bottom right). in africa, the main climatic gradient is mainly related to temperature variables (top right to bottom left). the african pixels are generally drier than the amazonian pixels.
What is the cause of Carbon cycle?
tropical ecosystems are of particular importance within the global carbon cycle because of the large amount of carbon stored in undisturbed tropical forests
Which Institution has made its study on Carbon cycle?
impacts of future climate change on biogeography and the carbon cycle have been studied using dynamic global vegetation models (dgvms) driven by projections of future climate
What is the Name and Email id of the Correspondence ?
r. m. doherty, e-mail: ruth.doherty@ed.ac.uk
tropical ecosystems are of particular importance within the global carbon cycle because of the large amount of carbon stored in undisturbed tropical forests [40% of global biomass, 4 60% of global net primary productivity (npp); denman et al ., 2007]. changes in the carbon balance of these regions could have significant effects on atmospheric carbon dioxide (co2) concentrations (lewis, 2006; denman et al ., 2007). impacts of future climate change on biogeography and the carbon cycle have been studied using dynamic global vegetation models (dgvms) driven by projections of future climate, typically generated by coupled correspondence: r. m. doherty, e-mail: ruth.doherty@ed.ac.uk
Which exam is a challenge due to a wide range of unknowns, as an extension of polar renewal?
a global examination of excursions from freshwater to marine and return is challenging due to a wide array of unknowns such as, extent of polar
According to the article, why should we turn to studies that examined excursions between freshwater and marine biomes?
to assess the possible viral adaptation with global climate change related to freshening, stratification and salinity regimes, we must turn to studies that have examined excursions between the freshwater and marine biomes
What does Wilhelm Matteson's recent review of (2008) offer?
a recent review by wilhelm matteson (2008) provides an excellent overview of the commonalities and differences between marine and freshwater viruses
a global examination of excursions from freshwater to marine and return is challenging due to a wide array of unknowns such as, extent of polar (especially arctic) freshening, rate of sea-level rise and modeling of heat balance. to assess the possible viral adaptation with global climate change related to freshening, stratification and salinity regimes, we must turn to studies that have examined excursions between the freshwater and marine biomes. a brief examination of what we currently know of viral dynamics across the freshwater-marine transition proves necessary as a foundation. a recent review by wilhelm matteson (2008) provides an excellent overview of the commonalities and differences between marine and freshwater viruses. the salient points of summarized material in that body of work are that: (1) viruses play an important role in the microbial food webs of both systems, (2) trophic status appears to be a more important determination of burst size, rates of virus production and prevalence of lysogeny/pseudolysogeny than salinity, (3) viruses in both systems are important controlling factors of microbial community structure, (4) freshwater and marine viruses appear to be taxonomically distinct (also some viruses are shared across systems) and (5) host range is a major unknown. however, the effects of modifications of salinity, osmotic stress and ph on marine viruses are still largely unknown. the analysis of literature data reveals that systems characterized by lower salinity generally display higher viral abundance (fig. 5a). however, the data set is largely influenced by the availability of data from few estuarine systems (such as the chesapeake bay) and these results could reflect the more specific characteristics of the sampling areas rather than a general trend. this applies also to the benthic compartment for which the data set available is still rather limited (fig. 5b). in addition, it is possible that the positive effect on viral abundance is linked to the different nutrient availability and trophic state in estuarine systems supporting a higher host abundance and metabolism rather than to a direct effect on the viral assemblages. the response of benthic viruses to changes in salinity is unclear, as the apparent increase of viral production with decreasing salinity is statistically weak (fig. 6) and data on viral-decay rates (from which viral production, according to fischer et al ., 2004 can be estimated) are too limited to provide a comprehensive view of the potential effects of changing salinity on viral dynamics. changes in the salinity and ph can influence virus survival by influencing the extent of virus adsorption to particles (harvey ryan, 2004). in particular, cation
What are zero order reactions?
zero-order reactions are those in which the reaction rate is independent of the reagent concentration
what is constant in the zero-order reaction?
the rate of change of the reagent concentration (c) is constant
Where should the reaction take place?
this comment assumes that the reaction occurs in a batch reactor (see item 8.4), in which there is no addition or withdrawal of the reagent during the reaction
zero-order reactions are those in which the reaction rate is independent of the reagent concentration. in these conditions, the rate of change of the reagent concentration (c) is constant this comment assumes that the reaction occurs in a batch reactor (see item 8.4), in which there is no addition or withdrawal of the reagent during the reaction. in the case of a reagent that is disappearing in the reactor (for example, through decomposition mechanisms), the rate of change is given by equation 8.4. the minus sign in the term on the right-hand side of the equation indicates removal of the reagent, whereas a plus sign would indicate production of the constituent. dc dt - k c0 (8.4) 322 basic principles of wastewater treatment or dc dt - k (8.5) the development of the rate of change (dc/dt) with time according to equation 8.5 can be seen in figure 8.2.a. it is seen that the rate is constant with time. the integration of equation 8.5 with c co at t 0 leads to: c co - k t (8.6) this equation can be visualised in figure 8.2.b.
What do we mean by "wet bias" during the summer, in relation to the states of the Gulf of Guinea?
the wet bias in the states of the gulf of guinea in summer may be related to inadequacies in the parameterisation of boundary-layer and subgrid-scale vertical transport processes
What does AEJ stand for?
african easterly jet
What does SHL stand for?
saharan heat low
the low-level convergence and shallow upward motion associated with the saharan heat low (shl) is located too far south however. the african easterly jet (aej) is of the right strength and almost at the right height, but located too far to the south as a result of the displacement of the shl. tests are underway to identify the underlying reasons for the cold bias in the sahara, which are pointing towards remaining deficiencies in the attribution of surface albedo and surface emissivity over deserts. this defect may have repercussions on the simulated monsoonal flow and may in part be responsible for the summer dry bias in sahel. the wet bias in the states of the gulf of guinea in summer may be related to inadequacies in the parameterisation of boundary-layer and subgrid-scale vertical transport processes.
How to asses the significant changes in climate?
to assess the significance of modern climate change, it is essential to place recent observed changes in a longer-term context
what does the review shows the evidence?
this review assesses the evidence from both "proxy" climate data and theoretical climate model simulations with regard to the nature and causes of climate variability over a time interval spanning roughly the past two millennia
Explain about the reviewed analysis?
evidence is reviewed for changes in temperature, drought, and atmospheric circulation over this timescale. methods for reconstructing past climate from proxy data are reviewed and comparisons with the results of climate modeling studies are provided. the assessment provided affirms the role of natural (solar and volcanic) radiative forcing in past changes in large-scale mean temperature changes and in dynamical modes of climate variability such as the north atlantic oscillation (nao) and el ni~no/southern oscillation (enso) influencing large-scale climate
to assess the significance of modern climate change, it is essential to place recent observed changes in a longer-term context. this review assesses the evidence from both "proxy" climate data and theoretical climate model simulations with regard to the nature and causes of climate variability over a time interval spanning roughly the past two millennia. evidence is reviewed for changes in temperature, drought, and atmospheric circulation over this timescale. methods for reconstructing past climate from proxy data are reviewed and comparisons with the results of climate modeling studies are provided. the assessment provided affirms the role of natural (solar and volcanic) radiative forcing in past changes in large-scale mean temperature changes and in dynamical modes of climate variability such as the north atlantic oscillation (nao) and el ni~no/southern oscillation (enso) influencing large-scale climate. at hemispheric scales, late twentieth century warmth appears unprecedented in the context of at least the past 2000 years. this anomalous warmth can only be explained by modern anthropogenic forcing.
what is the used of  empirical data from the North American and European ice sheets during HEs?
hese findings have been used as evidence against the idea that hes and other ice surges are internal oscillations of ice sheets bond and lotti, 1995], since in this case, surges from different ice sheets should be independent of each other
explain how to perform experiment To address the question of  whether the timing of HEs can be synchronized by a weak external forcing?
to address the question of whether the timing of hes can be synchronized by a weak external forcing, we performed an additional experiment identical to our baseline experiment except that we added a small external perturbation to the system: at two grid points at the outlet of the lis in the mouth of the hudson strait we switched on sediment-sliding conditions of 10 yrs duration every 1500 yrs
what is the reason for choice of a 1500-year periodicity ?
the choice of a 1500-year periodicity is not only justified by the existence of such climate cycles during the glacial age [e.g. dansgaard et al., 1993], but also because such periodicity is absent in the internal dynamics of the lis in our model
in spite of some ambiguity, empirical data suggest almost synchronous discharges of icebergs from the north american and european [e.g. grousset et al., 2000] ice sheets during hes. these findings have been used as evidence against the idea that hes and other ice surges are internal oscillations of ice sheets bond and lotti, 1995], since in this case, surges from different ice sheets should be independent of each other. however, in a strongly nonlinear system, such as the climate system, at least under some conditions different processes can be readily synchronized by a very weak interaction or external forcing - a mechanism which can resolve the apparent contradiction. for example, it was shown that millennial7 scale dansgaard-oeschger oscillations, which are triggered by random freshwater forcing, can be synchronized with a very weak periodic 1500-year forcing via a mechanism called stochastic resonance alley et al., 2001; ganopolski and rahmstorf, 2002]. to address the question of whether the timing of hes can be synchronized by a weak external forcing, we performed an additional experiment identical to our baseline experiment except that we added a small external perturbation to the system: at two grid points at the outlet of the lis in the mouth of the hudson strait we switched on sediment-sliding conditions of 10 yrs duration every 1500 yrs. such a weak perturbation might represent a small-scale instability of the ice shelf caused by a sea level rise due to iceberg discharge from other ice sheets. the choice of a 1500-year periodicity is not only justified by the existence of such climate cycles during the glacial age [e.g. dansgaard et al., 1993], but also because such periodicity is absent in the internal dynamics of the lis in our model. this means that the synchronization with an external 1500-year cycle can be easily detected in the model results. the prescribed weak perturbations induce as a direct result only small-scale surges restricted to a few neighboring grid points, but on average each second of these "microevents" provokes a more extended instability of the ice sheet in the eastern part of the hudson strait, similar to those which occur spontaneously and quasi-periodically in the baseline experiment. further on, each second or third of the surge events in the eastern half of the hudson strait triggers large-scale instabilities over the hudson bay and strait (hes). in this way more than one half of the hes are synchronized with the imposed 1500-year pulses (figure 2b). thus, although the mechanism and the periodicity (about 6,000 yrs) of the hes in this experiment are similar to those in the baseline experiment, the timing of the ice surges can indeed be controlled by a weak external forcing. this experiment illustrates the possibility of a synchronization between ice surges from different ice sheets.
What are the groups from which general solutions at ground level for climate change are brought ?
while we have suggested practical tactics, we emphasize that general solutions at the ground level, the resource managers' domain, do not yet fully exist. they will be wrought from collaborative discussion among colleagues--scientists, resource managers, planners, and the public--and they will be case-, location-, and project-specific
How the local solutions to climate change is formed?
while general principles will emerge, the best preparation is for managers and planners to remain informed about the emerging climate, vegetation, and fire science in their region and to use that knowledge to shape effective local solutions
What are the resilient and resistant to expected changes in climate?
restoration of forests to their pre-historic structure would result in forests that are more resilient and resistant to expected changes in climate
while we have suggested practical tactics, we emphasize that general solutions at the ground level, the resource managers' domain, do not yet fully exist. they will be wrought from collaborative discussion among colleagues--scientists, resource managers, planners, and the public--and they will be case-, location-, and project-specific. while general principles will emerge, the best preparation is for managers and planners to remain informed about the emerging climate, vegetation, and fire science in their region and to use that knowledge to shape effective local solutions. this work emphasizes the impacts of fire in mediterranean forests, in other forested regions in the world where insects, disease, or wind-throw are the primary disturbance agents, a different set of management tools may need to be developed. for forests that have been significantly disturbed and are far outside historical ranges of variation, restoration treatments are often prescribed (moore et al 1999 ). realignment or entrainment with future conditions rather than restoration to historical pre-disturbance conditions may be a preferred choice. in this case, management seeks to bring processes of the disturbed landscape into the range of current or expected future environments (halpin 1997 ). however, restoration of forests to their pre-historic structure would result in forests that are more resilient and resistant to expected changes in climate and disturbance regimes when compared to the vast majority of current forests in the us. changing climates have and will continue to occur in western north america. what is novel in the current condition 7
Does the net results increase or decrease and by how much?
the net result is an increase in stream flow by 4 mm y-1that can be attributed to the increase in precipitation and the change from melt river to rain river
Explain how stream flow is showing changes?
the partitioning of stream flow is indeed showing strong changes. rain runoff and base flow are increasing, snow runoff remains more or less constant and glacier runoff is eventually decreasing. this study shows an extensive analysis of a glacierized catchment in the central himalayas but the results are not representative for the entire himalayas. to arrive at a comprehensive assessment on how climate change is affecting the hydrology of the himalayas it is recommendable to perform this analysis in reference catchments covering the east - west and north - south gradient in climatology and glacier and hydrological dynamics
the positive temperature and precipitation trends will increase evapotranspiration and snow and ice melt while more precipitation will fall as rain instead of snow. the net result is an increase in stream flow by 4 mm y-1that can be attributed to the increase in precipitation and the change from melt river to rain river. the partitioning of stream flow is indeed showing strong changes. rain runoff and base flow are increasing, snow runoff remains more or less constant and glacier runoff is eventually decreasing. this study shows an extensive analysis of a glacierized catchment in the central himalayas but the results are not representative for the entire himalayas. to arrive at a comprehensive assessment on how climate change is affecting the hydrology of the himalayas it is recommendable to perform this analysis in reference catchments covering the east - west and north - south gradient in climatology and glacier and hydrological dynamics.
What chytrid fungus was discussed in this paragraph?
batrachochytrium dendrobatidis
What does Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis cause?
chytridiomycosis
What is a common survival strategy of pathogenic fungi?
inhibition of host immunity
thomas m. aune,2,4kyra oswald-richter,2louise a. rollins-smith1,2,3+ the chytrid fungus, batrachochytrium dendrobatidis causes chytridiomycosis and is a major contributor to global amphibian declines. although amphibians have robust immune defenses, clearance of this pathogen is impaired. because inhibition of host immunity is a common survival strategy of pathogenic fungi, we hypothesized that b. dendrobatidis evades clearance by inhibiting immune functions. we found that b. dendrobatidis cells and supernatants impaired lymphocyte proliferation and induced apoptosis; however, fungal recognition and phagocytosis by macrophages and neutrophils was not impaired. fungal inhibitory factors were resistant to heat, acid, and protease. their production was absent in zoospores and reduced by nikkomycin z, suggesting that they may be components of the cell wall. evasion of host immunity may explain why this pathogen has devastated amphibian populations worldwide.
In the pacific, what would a 10% reduction in average rainfall (by 2050) lead to?
a 20% reduction in the size of the freshwater lens on tarawa atoll, kiribati
What would reduced rainfall coupled with sealevel rise compound?
the risks to water supply reliability
What have many small islands begun to invest in?
the implementation of adaptation strategies, including desalination, to offset current and projected water shortages
in the pacific, a 10% reduction in average rainfall (by 2050) would lead to a 20% reduction in the size of the freshwater lens on tarawa atoll, kiribati. reduced rainfall coupled with sealevel rise would compound the risks to water supply reliability. [wgii 16.4.1] many small islands have begun to invest in the implementation of adaptation strategies, including desalination, to offset current and projected water shortages. however, the impacts of desalination plants themselves on environmental amenities and the need to fully address environmental water requirements have not been fully considered. [wgii 16.4.1] given the high visibility and impacts of hurricanes, droughts have received less attention by researchers and planners, although these may lead to increased withdrawals and potential for saltwater intrusion into near-shore aquifers. in the bahamas, for instance, freshwater lenses are the only exploitable groundwater resources. these lenses are affected periodically by saline intrusions caused by over-pumping and excess evapotranspiration. groundwater in most cases is slow-moving and, as a result, serious reductions in groundwater reserves are slow to recover and may not be reversible; variability in annual volumes of available water is generally not as extreme as for surface water resources; and water quality degradation and pollution have long-term effects and cannot quickly be remedied. [wgii 16.4.1] some island states such as malta (mrae, 2004) emphasise potential economic sectors that will require adaptation, including power generation, transport and waste management; whereas agriculture and human health figure prominently in communications from the comoros (gde, 2002), vanuatu (republic of vanuatu, 1999) and st. vincent and the grenadines (neab, 2000). in these cases, sea-level rise is not seen as the most critical issue, although it is in the low-lying atoll states such as kiribati, tuvalu, marshall islands and the maldives. [wgii 16.4.2]
What is the purpose of protozoa?
contribute to the removal of the organic matter in sewage, their main role in treatment (by processes such as activated sludge) is by the predatory activity that they exert on bacteria freely suspended in the liquid medium (la rivi'ere, 1977
What are Ciliates?
the protozoa
What is a pathogen?
bacteria
ciliates (principally). predation of bacteria, algae and other ciliated and flagellated protozoa. although the protozoa contribute to the removal of the organic matter in sewage, their main role in treatment (by processes such as activated sludge) is by the predatory activity that they exert on bacteria freely suspended in the liquid medium (la rivi'ere, 1977). hence, bacteria that are not part of the floc, but are dispersed in the medium are not normally removed in the final sedimentation. as a result, they contribute to the deterioration of the final effluent in terms of suspended solids, organic matter (from the bacteria themselves) and even pathogens. therefore, the microbiology and ecology of wastewater treatment 311
How can the sensitivity of changes in exceptionally low rainfall to reductions in projected mean rainfall be explored?
the sensitivity of changes in exceptionally low rainfall to reductions in projected mean rainfall can be explored with a simple statistical method
Give a brief overview of what is shown in Figure 3 (See also Table 1)
the probability of future exceptionally low rainfall (relative to the historical record) is shown in figure 3 (see also table 1) as a function of the percentage reduction in mean annual rainfall
What is the estimated percentage of rainfall  over much of Australia?
a 5 to 10% reduction in mean annual rainfall is a possible scenario by 2030 over much of australia
the sensitivity of changes in exceptionally low rainfall to reductions in projected mean rainfall can be explored with a simple statistical method. area-averaged annual rainfall (1900-2007) for the seven study regions3can be statistically modelled, with rainfall for some future year modelled in a similar way under the assumption of a drier climate. the probability of future exceptionally low rainfall (relative to the historical record) is shown in figure 3 (see also table 1) as a function of the percentage reduction in mean annual rainfall. a 5 to 10% reduction in mean annual rainfall is a possible scenario by 2030 over much of australia. a 10% decrease roughly doubles the risk of exceptionally low rainfall in five of the study regions, and almost triples the risk for the vic&tas regions. a 20% mean rainfall decrease triples the risk of exceptionally low rainfall in the same five regions and increases by more than six-fold the risk for the vic&tas and sw wa regions.
What do the coupled carbon-climate models reported in the literature all demonstrate?
a positive feedback between terrestrial carbon cycles and climate warming
What is a primary mechanism underlying the modeled positive feedback?
the kinetic sensitivity of photosynthesis and respiration to temperature
What do field experiments suggest?
much richer mechanisms driving ecosystem responses to climate warming, including extended growing seasons, enhanced nutrient availability, shifted species composition, and altered ecosystem-water dynamics
the coupled carbon-climate models reported in the literature all demonstrate a positive feedback between terrestrial carbon cycles and climate warming. a primary mechanism underlying the modeled positive feedback is the kinetic sensitivity of photosynthesis and respiration to temperature. field experiments, however, suggest much richer mechanisms driving ecosystem responses to climate warming, including extended growing seasons, enhanced nutrient availability, shifted species composition, and altered ecosystem-water dynamics. the diverse mechanisms likely define more possibilities of carbon-climate feedbacks than projected by the kinetics-based models. nonetheless, experimental results are so variable that we have not generated the necessary insights on ecosystem responses to effectively improve global models. to constrain model projections of carbon-climate feedbacks, we need more empirical data from wholeecosystem warming experiments across a wide range of biomes, particularly in tropic regions, and closer interactions between models and experiments.
What makes outdoors even more uncomfortable?
higher wind speeds at street level are also associated with higher windchill factors, making the outdoors even more uncomfortable
Where can the wind impacts of new city developments  be tested ?
there are several laboratories in the uk where the wind impacts of new city developments can be tested on models in wind tunnels or through simulation, as for instance at the universities of cardiff, sheffield, cambridge, umist and at the bre and the national physical laboratory
What is the cause of construction related deaths?
the highest percentage of the 85 uk construction-related deaths between 2001 and 2002 was caused by falls from height
higher wind speeds at street level are also associated with higher windchill factors, making the outdoors even more uncomfortable. where today problems of outdoor air comfort may result from wind flow down and up from high-rise buildings, they may in future climates become the cause of increasingly dangerous street conditions as wind speeds increase. there are several laboratories in the uk where the wind impacts of new city developments can be tested on models in wind tunnels or through simulation, as for instance at the universities of cardiff, sheffield, cambridge, umist and at the bre and the national physical laboratory. such wind testing is required by local authorities and by independent bodies, but for current climates only, and not future wind environments. the highest percentage of the 85 uk construction-related deaths between 2001 and 2002 was caused by falls from height and a report on health and safety on sites concluded that ' designers are often abdicating their responsibility to reduce risk in relation to work at height by leaving it to the principal contractor without first considering how they could change the design in a way that would make it safer to build, clean or maintain ' 30 increased wind speeds at height, with a windier climate, will significantly increase the risk of construction worker deaths to the point where building firms may become reluctant to put their workforces under such risks during certain seasons of the year.
Structure of Bangladesh?
almost all areas in bangladesh are densely populated and under cultivation, and many locations are vulnerable to similar environmental risks. there are no guarantees of finding employment or housing in the place of destination. for coastal fishing villages, cyclones, storm surges, and sea level rise pose a formidable adaptation challenge
One fisherman interviewed by a journalist during the 2008 cyclone season,what he said?
the sea has been coming closer and closer," then added in bengali, "allah jane ke hobe. sahbi shesh ho jabe." [god only knows what will happen. everything will come to an end
The same journalist interviewed another fisherman, what he said?
we can't do anything else, which is why we think twice about migrating from here. we know the end is coming, but what work will we find to feed our families elsewhere
temporary migration linked to flooding and other disasters, frequently to dhaka and other urban centers, is viewed as both a coping and survival strategy to escape riverbank erosion, the devastation of cyclones, and food insecurity. almost all areas in bangladesh are densely populated and under cultivation, and many locations are vulnerable to similar environmental risks. there are no guarantees of finding employment or housing in the place of destination. for coastal fishing villages, cyclones, storm surges, and sea level rise pose a formidable adaptation challenge. one fisherman interviewed by a journalist during the 2008 cyclone season noted, "the sea has been coming closer and closer," then added in bengali, "allah jane ke hobe. sahbi shesh ho jabe." [god only knows what will happen. everything will come to an end.] in spite of accelerated erosion related to stronger and higher tides, villagers are determined to stay and pursue their livelihoods as long as possible. the same journalist interviewed another fisherman who said, "we can't do anything else, which is why we think twice about migrating from here. we know the end is coming, but what work will we find to feed our families elsewhere?"81
Outside the warm pool region, what do most models reproduce?
outside the warm pool region, most models (except giss-aom, giss-er, and miroc3.2-hires) reproduce the precipitation minimum over the eastern pacific trade wind cumulus region reasonably well, but there is a large scatter over africa and the atlantic ocean
When do models show a larger scatter in their performance?
when the precipitation is averaged over a narrower belt closer to the equator between 5degn and 5degs, models show a larger scatter in their performance, especially over the western pacific
What causes several models to show precipitation that is too weak over the western Pacific?
this is caused by the prominent double-itcz pattern in their horizontal distributions
when the precipitation is averaged over a narrower belt closer to the equator between 5degn and 5degs, models show a larger scatter in their performance, especially over the western pacific (fig. 3b). several models (cgcm3.1-t47, miroc3.2-medres, miroc3.2-hires, ccsm3, and giss-er) produce much greater precipitation than is found in the observations, and produce much larger precipitation over the western pacific than over the eastern indian ocean, a feature that is not observed. on the other hand, several other models (pcm, cnrm-cm3) show too weak precipitation over the western pacific, which is significantly smaller than their corresponding 15degn-15degs average (fig. 3a). this is caused by the prominent double-itcz pattern in their horizontal distributions (not shown). outside the warm pool region, most models (except giss-aom, giss-er, and miroc3.2-hires) reproduce the precipitation minimum over the eastern pacific trade wind cumulus region reasonably well, but there is a large scatter over africa and the atlantic ocean. in short, the climatological precipitation over the indo-pacific warm pool is reasonably simulated by ipcc ar4 climate models, except that several models (pcm, cnrm-cm3, and mri-cgcm2.3.2) produce too weak precipitation on the equator in the western pacific due to their double-itcz problem.
What are the additional coping strategies mentioned?
land use, management practices, and farm infrastructure
What is the most popular adaptation strategies in Murowa Ward?
planting short season varieties, crop diversification, and varying planting dates
Name some short season and drought-resistant crop varieties:
sorghum, rapoko, and finger millet
climate change is eroding these coping mechanisms by causing climatic extremes with a frequency and intensity that local people had never seen before. this has alerted the farmers to the need to re-examine land use, management practices, and farm infrastructure leading to the adoption of additional coping strategies shown on figure 4. as can be noticed on the results, every farmer, including those that claimed had no knowledge about climate change, have adopted at least one strategy to cope with the current climatic trends. the most popular adaptation strategies in murowa ward included planting short season varieties, crop diversification, and varying planting dates. the main thrust of these strategies is increased diversification and escaping sensitive growth stages through crop management practices that ensure that critical crop growth stages do not coincide with harsh climatic conditions in the season, such as mid-season droughts (nhemachena and hassan, 2007). crop diversification improves household food security since different crops are affected differently by the same climatic conditions. also, given the high frequency of mid-season dry spells and shortening of the rain season, farmers grow short season and drought-resistant crop varieties, such as sorghum, rapoko, and finger millet. for a staple crop, such as maize, instead of planting local varieties, farmers have opted for hybrid maize that take a shorter
What is UNFCCC?
united nations framework convention on climate change
What does UNFCCC stands for?
the unfccc, adopted at unced in 1992 and in force since 1994, has as ultimate objective to "achieve stabilization of ghgs concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous human-induced interference with the climate system within a timeframe sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner
Countries are divided into how many groups?
countries are divided into two groups: annex i parties, composed of industrialized countries and those with economies in transition, and non annex i parties, including developing countries
the international response to climate change is embodied in the united nations framework convention on climate change (unfccc) and its kyoto protocol. the unfccc, adopted at unced in 1992 and in force since 1994, has as ultimate objective to "achieve stabilization of ghgs concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous human-induced interference with the climate system within a timeframe sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner" in order to meet this goal all countries are committed themselves to addressing climate change issues, adapting to its effects and reporting their initiatives for implementing the convention. countries are divided into two groups: annex i parties, composed of industrialized countries and those with economies in transition, and non annex i parties, including developing countries. annex i parties committed themselves to adopt policies and measures to reduce their co2 emissions by the year 2000 to 1990 levels. despite this division, all parties to the unfccc, both developed and developing countries, share some common commitments14 such as to:  develop and submit "national communications" including inventories of ghgs emissions classified by sources as well as ghgs removals by sinks;  introduce national programmes aiming at mitigating climate change and design strategies to adapt to its impacts;
What can be said is a constant of the climate?
the earth's climate has always been in a state of change 1-3 
What is a common assumption?
it is commonly assumed that their distribution is determined by climate and that warmer global temperatures will increase their incidence and geographic range 12-14 
What does this review explore?
this review explores the validity of both assumptions by examining the history of three mosquito-borne diseases--malaria, yellow fever, and dengue-- in the context of past climates and of other factors that can influence their transmission
the earth's climate has always been in a state of change 1-3 ). for nearly three centuries it has been in a warming phase. this was preceded by a cold period, the little ice age, which was itself preceded by a warmer phase known as the medieval warm period, or little climatic optimum. such changes are entirely natural, but there is evidence that in recent years a portion of the current warming may be attributable to human activities, particularly the burning of fossil fuels 4-6 ). the potential impact of this global warming on human health is a major subject of debate 7-10 ). many of the diseases that currently occur in the tropics are mosquito borne 11 ). it is commonly assumed that their distribution is determined by climate and that warmer global temperatures will increase their incidence and geographic range 12-14 ). this review explores the validity of both assumptions by examining the history of three mosquito-borne diseases--malaria, yellow fever, and dengue-- in the context of past climates and of other factors that can influence their transmission.
What is the main concern about climate change and food security?
the main concern about climate change and food security is that changing climatic conditions can initiate a vicious circle where infectious disease causes or compounds hunger, which, in turn, makes the affected populations more susceptible to infectious disease
What impact do all manifestations of climate change have?
essentially all manifestations of climate change, be they drought, higher temperatures, or heavy rainfalls have an impact on the disease pressure, and there is growing evidence that these changes affect food safety and food security (3
What do warmer seas contribute to in tropical regions?
warmer seas may contribute to increased cases of human shellfish and reef-fish poisoning (ciguatera) in tropical regions and a poleward expansion of the disease (14-17
working group ii provides a detailed account of the health impacts of climate change in chapter 8 of its fourth assessment report (3). it examines how the various forms of diseases, including vectorborne diseases such as malaria, are likely to spread or recede with climate change. this article focuses on a narrow selection of diseases that affect food safety directly, i.e., food and water-borne diseases. the main concern about climate change and food security is that changing climatic conditions can initiate a vicious circle where infectious disease causes or compounds hunger, which, in turn, makes the affected populations more susceptible to infectious disease. the result can be a substantial decline in labor productivity and an increase in poverty and even mortality. essentially all manifestations of climate change, be they drought, higher temperatures, or heavy rainfalls have an impact on the disease pressure, and there is growing evidence that these changes affect food safety and food security (3). the recent ipcc report also emphasizes that increases in daily temperatures will increase the frequency of food poisoning, particularly in temperate regions. warmer seas may contribute to increased cases of human shellfish and reef-fish poisoning (ciguatera) in tropical regions and a poleward expansion of the disease (14-17). however, there is little new evidence that climate change significantly alters the prevalence of these diseases. several studies have confirmed and quantified the effects of temperature on common forms of food poisoning, such as salmonellosis (18-20). these studies show an approximately linear increase in reported cases for each degree increase in weekly temperature. moreover, there is evidence that temperature variability affects the incidence of diarrhoeal disease. a number of studies (21-24) found that rising temperatures were strongly associated with increased episodes of diarrhoeal disease in adults and children. these findings have been corroborated by analyses based on monthly temperature observations. several studies report a strong correlation between monthly temperature and diarrhoeal episodes on the pacific islands, australia, and israel (25-27). extreme rainfall events can increase the risk of outbreaks of water-borne diseases particularly where traditional water management systems are insufficient to handle the new extremes (3). likewise, the impacts of flooding will be felt most strongly in environmentally degraded areas, and where basic public infrastructure, including sanitation and hygiene, is lacking. this will raise the number of people exposed to water-borne diseases (e.g., cholera) and thus lower their capacity to effectively use food.
Who declared itself leader in a strategy of ratification without the U.S?
the eu
Which country confirmed its interest to keep alive the treaty bearing the name of its imperial city?
japan
Which country were allowed a substantial credit for carbon dioxide sinks ?
australia, canada, new zealand, japan, and russia
the u.s. withdrawal triggered a discussion among the remaining industrialized countries about whether or not to implement the protocol in the absence of the u.s. the eu declared itself leader in a strategy of ratification without the u.s., but in addition to eu approval entering into force of the protocol requires ratification by japan, the former soviet union (russia and ukraine) as well as eastern europe to get the necessary quorum. russia, ukraine and eastern europe were assumed to ratify, since they expect larger revenues from selling surplus emission rights. 2 japan confirmed its interest to keep alive the treaty bearing the name of its imperial city. however, it also stressed that the protocol would make sense only if the u.s. as the world's biggest polluter would carry out the treaty. in this context, delegates from 180 countries met in bonn during july 2001, most of them determined to rescue the kyoto global warming treaty from collapsing after a decade of negotiations. the negotiating parties agreed on a compromise paper which demanded numerous concessions, especially by the eu. australia, canada, new zealand, japan, and russia were allowed a substantial credit for carbon dioxide sinks, namely forests and agricultural soils that store the greenhouse gas. the latter is supposed to considerably water down the provisions of the protocol as originally agreed in 1997. moreover, the restrictive position held by the eu with respect to the permissible scope of emissions trading between
What are the  Previous applications of these models suggest?
previous applications of these models suggest they provide valid covariance structures for streams and yield significantly improved predictive power when spatial autocorrelation is present in stream data (peterson et al. 2006, 2007
Define the pattern as model suggest?
 because patterns in stream temperature are spatially complex, we used a stream network model with a mixedmodel error structure developed by ver hoef and peterson (2010
Explain mixed model?
the mixed model is essentially a variance component approach, which allows multiple covariance matrices to be combined to provide a robust and flexible covariance structure. 
(peterson and ver hoef 2010, ver hoef and peterson 2010). previous applications of these models suggest they provide valid covariance structures for streams and yield significantly improved predictive power when spatial autocorrelation is present in stream data (peterson et al. 2006, 2007). because patterns in stream temperature are spatially complex, we used a stream network model with a mixedmodel error structure developed by ver hoef and peterson (2010). the mixed model is essentially a variance component approach, which allows multiple covariance matrices to be combined to provide a robust and flexible covariance structure. here, covariances based on euclidean distance are combined with ''tail-up'' and ''tail-down'' covariances. tail-up covariances are based on hydrologic distance, but restrict spatial correlation to ''flow-connected'' sites (water must flow downstream from one site to another). in addition, spatial weights are incorporated to account for the disproportionate effects that tributaries of differing size may have on downstream areas. tail-down covariances allow spatial correlation between any two ''flow-unconnected'' sites, meaning that they reside on the same network (share a common outlet downstream). the mixed models were fit using three covariance component models; the exponential tail-up, the exponential euclidean, and the linear-with-sill taildown components. the exponential tail-up autocovariance between flow-connected locations on the stream network is ctud si; sj j h th  1/4  0 if si and sj are flow-unconnected y
What improvements does the sea ice model include?
the sea ice model includes improved schemes for the horizontal advection of sea ice and for the exchange of salt with the surrounding ocean
What errors need to be addressed?
the errors in continental precipitation and temperatures need to be addressed to facilitate modeling of dynamic vegetation and the terrestrial carbon cycle
What is the model being extended to include?
at the same time, the model is being extended to include a comprehensive treatment of terrestrial and oceanic biogeochemistry and ecosystem dynamics
a new version of the community climate system model, ccsm3, has been developed and released to the climate community. the improvements in the functionality include the flexibility to simulate climate over a wide range of spatial resolutions with greater fidelity. this paper documents the high resolution (t85 1) version used for international assessments of climate change. the atmosphere and land share a grid for the eulerian spectral atmospheric dynamics running at t85 truncation. the ocean and sea-ice share a nominal 1-degree grid with a displaced pole in the northern hemisphere. the atmosphere incorporates new treatments of cloud and ice-phase processes; new dynamical frameworks suitable for modeling atmospheric chemistry; improved parameterizations of the interactions among water vapor, solar radiation, and terrestrial thermal radiation; and a new treatment of the effects of aerosols on solar radiation. the land model includes improvements in land-surface physics to reduce temperature biases and new capabilities to enable simulation of dynamic vegetation and the terrestrial carbon cycle. the ocean model has been enhanced with new infrastructure for studying vertical mixing, a more realistic treatment of shortwave absorption by chlorophyll, and improvements to the 27 representation of the ocean mixed layer. the sea ice model includes improved schemes for the horizontal advection of sea ice and for the exchange of salt with the surrounding ocean. the software has been designed so that ccsm3 is readily portable to a wide variety of computer architectures. the climate produced by the high-resolution ccsm3 shows several significant improvements over the climates produced by previous generations of the model. these include reduced sub-arctic surface temperature biases during boreal winter, reduced tropical sst biases in the pacific, and more realistic meridional ocean heat transport. the new atmosphere features improved simulation of cloud radiative effects in the storm tracks and during enso events (section 3.b) smaller biases in upper tropical tropospheric temperatures; and a more realistic surface radiation budget under clear-sky conditions (collins et al. 2005b). the sea ice features a much more realistic simulation of the spatial distribution of ice concentration and of ice thickness. the climate is stable over at least 700 years subject to perpetual present-day boundary conditions. there are still several aspects that should be improved in future versions of ccsm. these include the periodicity and total variance of enso; the double itcz in the tropical oceans; and the large precipitation biases in the western tropical ocean basins. other major modes of variability that are not well-simulated include the madden-julian oscillation (collins et al. 2005b). the errors in continental precipitation and temperatures need to be addressed to facilitate modeling of dynamic vegetation and the terrestrial carbon cycle. while the representation of the surface fluxes in coastal regions west of africa and south america has improved, there are still significant biases in the coastal ssts (large and danabasoglu 2005). reduction in these biases will affect the simulation over large areas of the pacific and atlantic basins. finally, there are still significant errors in the radiative energy budget of polar regions. these affect both the seasonal cycle and the climate feedbacks of 28 sea ice. research is underway to diagnose these biases at the process level and to test improvements in physics and dynamics that would improve the simulation fidelity. at the same time, the model is being extended to include a comprehensive treatment of terrestrial and oceanic biogeochemistry and ecosystem dynamics. detailed representations of reactive chemistry, photochemistry, and aerosol microphysics have been added to the atmosphere. these developments are the initial steps toward building a more comprehensive model of the entire earth system that can be applied to climates of the past, present, and future.
What must happen to help mitigate the negative effects of climate change?
citizens' attitudes and behaviors must be better understood
What are the 3 significant unique predictors of climate change engagement that emerged from a community sample of 324 residents from 3 regions in British Columbia?
place attachment, receiving the local message, and gender (female
How does engagement go beyond simple awareness of the problem?
it includes caring, motivation, willingness to act, and action itself
to help mitigate the negative effects of climate change, citizens' attitudes and behaviors must be better understood. however, little is known about which factors predict engagement with climate change, and which messaging strategies are most effective. a community sample of 324 residents from three regions in british columbia read information either about a climate change impact relevant to their local area, a more global one, or, in a control condition, no message. participants indicated the extent of their climate change engagement, the strength of their attachment to their local area, and demographic information. three significant unique predictors of climate change engagement emerged: place attachment, receiving the local message, and gender (female). these results provide empirical support for some previously proposed barriers to climate action and suggest guidelines for effective climate change communication. keywords climate change engagement, message framing, place attachment, local and global climate impacts, climate change communication article scannell and gifford 61 social scientists, policy makers, businesses, and nongovernmental organizations are grappling with the question of how to increase citizen engagement in climate change issues. this is important because certain lifestyle choices or specific behaviors (particularly those of individuals living in developed countries) remain carbon intensive and unsustainable, and therefore must be altered if the climate crisis has to be successfully curbed (e.g., gifford, 2008). individual engagement in climate change issues can motivate some of these necessary behavior changes as well as foster the acceptance and longevity of climate-friendly policies. engagement goes beyond simple awareness of the problem: it includes caring, motivation, willingness to act, and action itself (lorenzoni, nicholson-cole, whitmarsh, 2007). fostering such engagement partly requires effective communication of the facts about, and impacts and solutions of, climate change (e.g., moser dilling, 2007; nisbet mooney, 2007). this is a growing area of literature, which is beginning to assemble the most effective strategies for climate change- related messaging (e.g., feinberg willer, 2011; leiserowitz, 2007; moser dilling, 2007; o'neill nicholson-cole, 2009; spence pidgeon, 2010; whitmarsh, 2009). thus, the current study aims to contribute to this relatively new body of literature by investigating two potentially important but understudied variables in climate change messaging: the local versus global frame of the message and place attachment, the sense of connectedness to one's local area.
How much water does domestic sewage have?
domestic sewage contains approximately 99.9% water
What is the remaining 1% of the sewage composed of?
the remaining part includes organic and inorganic, suspended and dissolved solids, together with microorganisms
What is the consequence of this 1% of material that is in the sewer?
it is because of this 0.1% that water pollution takes place and the wastewater needs to be treated
domestic sewage contains approximately 99.9% water. the remaining part includes organic and inorganic, suspended and dissolved solids, together with microorganisms. it is because of this 0.1% that water pollution takes place and the wastewater needs to be treated. the composition of the wastewater is a function of the uses to which the water was submitted. these uses, and the form with which they were exercised, vary with climate, social and economic situation and population habits. in the design of a wwtp, there is normally no interest in determining the various compounds that make up wastewater. this is due, not only to the difficulty in
What is the main conclusion of the article?
the main conclusion from this paper is that the thermal consequences on humans of climate change should have been underestimated
What is expected from climate change?
changes in the overall bioclimatic conditions for humans are expected to be considerably greater than changes in air temperature alone
What would contribute to more detailed analysis?
the analyses could be further elaborated by undertaking more detailed studies comparing different gcms, including regional climate effects, extreme events (heat waves) and expected future land use changes
the main conclusion from this paper is that the thermal consequences on humans of climate change should have been underestimated. changes in the overall bioclimatic conditions for humans are expected to be considerably greater than changes in air temperature alone. changes in non-temperature factors such as short and long wave radiation appear to reinforce the first-order effects of temperature change. in most regions of the world, the projected climate change will produce bioclimatic conditions that are more stressful (a pet of more than 35 means extreme hot conditions for europeans) to people and affect their health and well being. regions with pet >35degc will be increase compared to present bioclimatic conditions and the possibility of heat waves will also increase. in addition, the changed thermal conditions will lead to higher energy consumption (and higher emissions of greenhouse gases) as a result of the increased need for cooling. the results presented in this paper have to be considered as a first approach. the analyses could be further elaborated by undertaking more detailed studies comparing different gcms, including regional climate effects, extreme events (heat waves) and expected future land use changes. it has to be mentioned that the uncertainties in the input data, which are included in the data derived from the climate scenarios have an influence in the thermal bioclimate conditions. these uncertainties a.e. an increase of air temperature of 2degc in thermal neutral conditions (air temperature 20degc) is associated with an increase of pet of 2.4degc. nevertheless, the information and results in their current form are already very likely to be assisting in decision making on various levels, including health, tourism and regional planning.
What is the topic of discussion in this context?
the american philosophy of individualism is at play in this context of bias. the notion that obesity is controllable becomes easier to accept in a climate of individualism
Is there any study conducted on this obesity?
christopher crandall and colleagues conducted a number of studies examining attributions of and attitudes towards obesity
What was the outcome of the study?
they have found that the stronger the belief that obesity is controllable, and that obese people are responsible for their weight, the higher the level of prejudice.49 these investigators found that people in traditionally individualistic countries (the united states, australia, and poland) exhibited greater prejudice against obese people than those in traditionally collectivist cultures (venezuela, india, and turkey).50
the american philosophy of individualism is at play in this context of bias. the notion that obesity is controllable becomes easier to accept in a climate of individualism. christopher crandall and colleagues conducted a number of studies examining attributions of and attitudes towards obesity. they have found that the stronger the belief that obesity is controllable, and that obese people are responsible for their weight, the higher the level of prejudice.49 these investigators found that people in traditionally individualistic countries (the united states, australia, and poland) exhibited greater prejudice against obese people than those in traditionally collectivist cultures (venezuela, india, and turkey).50
Why is Bangladesh often cited as one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change?
bangladesh is frequently cited as one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change19 because of its flat and low-lying topography and location on the coast at the top of the bay of bengal, which make it vulnerable to cyclones and tidal surges. moreover, bangladesh also suffers from a history of impoverishment, high population density, weak political governance, and a reliance of many livelihoods on climate-sensitive sectors, particularly agriculture and fisheries
What does the acronym NAPA stands for?
national adaptation programme of action (napa
How is a floating garden built?
a floating garden is built from a raft of water hyacinth typically about 8 meters long and 1 meter wide. the raft is covered with soil, compost, and manure, in which vegetable seeds are planted
bangladesh is frequently cited as one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change19 because of its flat and low-lying topography and location on the coast at the top of the bay of bengal, which make it vulnerable to cyclones and tidal surges. moreover, bangladesh also suffers from a history of impoverishment, high population density, weak political governance, and a reliance of many livelihoods on climate-sensitive sectors, particularly agriculture and fisheries.20 many of the anticipated adverse effects of climate change, such as sea-level rise, higher temperatures, enhanced monsoon precipitation, and increased cyclone intensity, will aggravate the existing stresses that already impede development in bangladesh.21 the international community has recognized bangladesh as a particularly vulnerable country for some time, and the country has received disaster management and adaptation support in several sectors. bangladesh has developed some capacity for dealing with the impacts of climate change at the national level and has mobilized policy response options that deal with vulnerability reduction to environmental variability in general and, more recently, to climate change in particular. for example, bangladesh was one of the first countries to submit its national adaptation programme of action (napa) to the unfccc and more recently has developed a national climate change strategy to deal with mitigation and adaptation. at the same time, community-based adaptation responses are emerging both autonomously and supported by ngos and local partners. one example can be drawn from the gaibandha district in northern bangladesh, which is covered by water during the monsoon season, making it impossible to grow crops using traditional methods. the ipcc fourth assessment report notes that climate change will bring greater precipitation extremes, including more intense monsoonal rainfall, which will exacerbate flooding in gaibandha.22 the international ngo practical action is working with local communities in this district to develop ways of allowing farmers to grow food on flooded land, using a process of community-led identification and prioritization of natural resource management options and technologies. detailed consultation meetings, in addition to assessments of the needs, skills, assets, and capacities of the community through household surveys led to the development of participatory action plans of development, which identified a number of options for tailoring existing and new technologies to meet the needs of the community.23 for example, the innovative technology of floating gardens, or hydroponics, that villagers have taken up in many other waterlogged and flooded areas of bangladesh24 has been introduced to gaibandha. a floating garden is built from a raft of water hyacinth typically about 8 meters long and 1 meter wide. the raft is covered with soil, compost, and manure, in which vegetable seeds are planted. the raft will last just one year but can be used as fertilizer during the dry season. to ensure sustainability of the program, training and input support was tailored to the particular profile of household members, and technologies were accompanied by a widespread climate change awareness program.25 the work in gaibandha was partly inspired by bad flooding in 2007, which prompted organizations such as practical action to look into longterm methods of reducing vulnerability to inundation, as well short-term disaster relief. villagers in gaibandha use floating gardens to grow vegetables such as bitter gourds, green okra, and leafy greens, which provide subsistence for people even during the annual monga (period of food shortage). indeed, in some cases, these vegetables also provide an alternative source of income when surplus is sold in the market. because the rafts can be moved from place to place, they are also suitable for those who have temporarily or permanently lost their homes and land during increasingly severe flooding conditions. measuring the success of any community-based adaptation project is inherently problematic, mainly because the impacts are in the form of outcomes that have not happened--in this case, the crops not lost due to inundation and the economic impacts that did not result.26 it is too early to tell whether the project has resulted in long-term resilience building, given that the project is only four years old, and the project implementers suggest that the real test for the project will depend on whether it can be scaled up.27 in the coastal areas of southern bangladesh, one further threat of climate change is increasing salinity--the encroachment of saltwater onto and beneath agricultural land. saltwater makes it difficult to grow crops historically irrigated by freshwater, and it can accelerate the deterioration of buildings. in mongla district, near the mangrove forests of the sunderbans, villagers are responding to the threats of salinity by building houses on raised platforms and installing sealed containers of freshwater. small containers--called mokti--are often made of pottery and partly buried into the clay soil surrounding houses to provide reservoirs of freshwater for every house. larger water tanks of plastic or even concrete are also installed near schools or in villager centers to provide a more communal and robust reservoir. the freshwater usually comes from rain that is channeled off roofs into containers. some wealthier farmers are also converting old rice fields to fishponds and using these to fatten crabs for local restaurants or for consumption in dhaka, bangladesh's capital city. in the coastal district of noakhali, south bangladesh, the international union for conservation of nature (iucn) has been implementing the promotion of adaptation to climate change and climate variability project, which aims in part to increase adaptive capacity at the community level. one community-based adaptation project under this program involves raising and reinforcing homesteads to make them more resilient against flooding and cyclonic activity, reducing the need for people to flee their homes during extreme weather events and reducing losses. the project brings together a design team of local individuals engaged as village-level house-building specialists, architects, planners, an engineer, a geographer, architecture students from local universities, user groups, and local builders and carpenters to develop preliminary design options. the team selects one family in the community for whom to build the first demonstration house. once built, a new local design and construction team is formed from the nowexperienced local members of the first team, who move the project forward in their community, building other houses in the locality along with the house owners. house design is based on traditional cultural preferences but incorporate modest technological innovations that help strengthen or otherwise improve parts of the house that are particularly weak and vulnerable in the local climate. these include raising foundations, reinforcing house structures, and creating raised platforms within homes where people can take shelter during floods. planting extensively along edges of homesteads is a local way of reducing wind impacts. community-based adaptation is not restricted to developing countries such as bangladesh but can also be used among vulnerable communities in more developed regions (see the box on page tk).
What kind of viruses are transmitted by Aphids ?
aphids are among the most effective insect vectors of plant virus diseases, such as the transmission of potato leaf roll virus (plrv) and potato virus y (pvy) by the peach-potato aphid m. persicae and barley yellow dwarf virus (bydv) by the grain aphid s. avenae
How many life cycles do economically important aphids have ?
most aphids of economic importance have two genetically distinct types of life cycle within the one species: holocyclic and anholocyclic
At what time do the eggs hatch ?
egg hatch occurs at much the same time each spring
aphids are among the most effective insect vectors of plant virus diseases, such as the transmission of potato leaf roll virus (plrv) and potato virus y (pvy) by the peach-potato aphid m. persicae and barley yellow dwarf virus (bydv) by the grain aphid s. avenae most aphids of economic importance have two genetically distinct types of life cycle within the one species: holocyclic and anholocyclic. in the holocyclic life cycle, multiple generations reproduce asexually from spring through to summer and to early autumn and then, in response to decreasing photoperiod, sexual morphs (males and egg-laying females - the oviparae) are produced, which mate and lay the overwintering eggs. aphid eggs are very cold hardy (strathdee et al., 1995) and within northern europe it seems that winter minimum temperatures are not a threat to survival. egg hatch occurs at much the same time each spring, after which
What can act as a barrier to adaptation at a local level?
policy and government laws and regulations
Which countries were poor coastal communities were affected by the government policies mentioned?
tanzania and mozambique
What do Conway and Schipper suggest?
that discourses and policies that take a disasterfocused, short-term view of climate variability and that focus on transient food insecurity and relief can act as a barrier to a longer-term perspective that emphasizes sustainable adaptation, livelihood
policy and government laws and regulations themselves can also act as barriers to adaptation at a local level (see box 1). bunce et al.98 found that government policies controlling water flows in upstream dams, the designation of conservation areas and the expansion of urban development and tourism all worked as barriers to adaptation amongst poor coastal communities in tanzania and mozambique. political short-termism makes it hard to plan for longer-term changes in climate32. linked to this, conway and schipper18 suggest that discourses and policies that take a disasterfocused, short-term view of climate variability and that focus on transient food insecurity and relief can act as a barrier to a longer-term perspective that emphasizes sustainable adaptation, livelihood
What is widely believed about large-scale geographical patterns of biotic specialization?
it is widely believed that climate plays an important role in determining specialization
What is the contemporary biotic specialization hypothesis that involves Quaternary climate-change velocity?
ne hypothesis is that contemporary biotic specialization is determined by the degree of past climatic instability, primarily quaternary climate-change velocity
What was the finding related to plant-hummingbird specialization?
we found greater biotic specialization at lower latitudes, with latitude explaining 20-22% of the spatial variation in plant-hummingbird specialization
large-scale geographical patterns of biotic specialization and the underlying drivers are poorly understood, but it is widely believed that climate plays an important role in determining specialization. as climate-driven range dynamics should diminish local adaptations and favor generalization, one hypothesis is that contemporary biotic specialization is determined by the degree of past climatic instability, primarily quaternary climate-change velocity. other prominent hypotheses predict that either contemporary climate or species richness affect biotic specialization. to gain insight into geographical patterns of contemporary biotic specialization and its drivers, we use network analysis to determine the degree of specialization in plant-hummingbird mutualistic networks sampled at 31 localities, spanning a wide range of climate regimes across the americas. we found greater biotic specialization at lower latitudes, with latitude explaining 20-22% of the spatial variation in plant-hummingbird specialization. potential drivers of specialization contemporary climate, quaternary climate-change velocity, and species richness had superior explanatory power, together explaining 53-64% of the variation in specialization. notably, our data provides empirical evidence for the hypothesized roles of species richness, contemporary precipitation and quaternary climate-change velocity as key predictors of biotic specialization, whereas contemporary temperature and seasonality seem unimportant in determining specialization. these results suggest that both ecological and evolutionary processes at quaternary time scales can be important in driving large-scale geographical patterns of contemporary biotic specialization, at least for co-evolved systems such as plant-hummingbird networks.
What type of spectra do maps of phyllosilicates have been built to?
maps of phyllosilicates have been built using spectra in which the 1.9m m band depth exceeds 2
In which three factors depends the variation of band depth?
the degree of hydration, the grain size and the relative abundance of phyllosilicates
After 18 months of operation, how much of the surface of Mars has OMEGA covered?
over 75% of the surface of mars at a 1.5-4.8 km pixel2 1sampling
maps of phyllosilicates have been built using spectra in which the 1.9m m band depth exceeds 2%. the variation of the band depth depends on the degree of hydration, the grain size and the relative abundance of phyllosilicates. we do not discuss the quantitative evaluation of the abundances here, because it requires a complex and nonlinear spectral deconvolution taking into account the potential presence of spectrally neutral species. after 18 months of operation, omega has covered over 75% of the surface of mars at a 1.5-4.8 km pixel2 1sampling. a major outcome of the present work is that phyllosilicates are detected in only a very restricted number of areas, commonly in association with two types of terrains: dark deposits and eroded outcrops. the key regions of each class are discussed separately below. the dark deposits are mainly located in and around arabia terra, northern syrtis major, northern terra meridiani, and a few small spots are also found in the xanthe terra and lunae planum regions. the absorption features at 1.9 m m and 2.30 0.01 m m indicate the presence in these deposits of fe/mg-smectites. no montmorillonitelike phyllosilicates have been detected in these dark terrains. a typical example of clay-rich dark soil is shown in fig. 3. the clays are inside a depression but constrained to a part of the dark deposit only; spectral signatures of pyroxenes dominate the rest of the dark surface. the mars orbiter camera (moc) narrow-angle images show that the hydrated dark material is probably constituted by a thin surface layer of dark material. this region is representative of most of the observed dark clay-rich occurrences. the low albedo seems to indicate that clays, usually bright in terrestrial analogues, are mixed with an opaque material, which does not present diagnostic spectral features in this wavelength range (a 'spectrally neutral' component). two scenarios could be proposed to account for the existence of these clay-rich deposits. the first one is the recent surface alteration of mafic material. however, this should have led to a planet-wide distribution of altered surface material, which is not the case. in the other scenario, the alteration could have taken place much earlier. the altered material would then be buried, and eventually exposed by erosion in very specific locations. the dark deposits would then originate from the local erosion of ancient clay-rich sub-surface terrains. in some cases, moc narrow-angle images show the presence of some layered terrains underlying the dark dust, which would favour this second scenario. the second major type of clay-rich terrains consists of outcrops. such terrains were first detected in the syrtis major region10. more recently, large occurrences were observed in nili fossae and mawrth vallis. a few spots have been also identified south of the isidis basin, northern hellas, and around terra meridiani. the composition of these areas is more diverse than that of the dark deposits. an example of clays in syrtis major is given on fig. 4. the presence of fe-rich clays perfectly matches the contours of a peninsula of ancient basement; the surrounding younger syrtis pyroxene-bearing lava flows do not contain hydrated silicates. this confirms our initial interpretation10
Who will be adversely affected by rapid changes in climate in the next decades?
amphibians and reptiles will be adversely affected by projected rapid changes in climate in the next decades
What prevents herpetofauna from migrating away?
southest asia is a network of islands with relatively few mountains, effectively preventing most herpetofauna from migrating away from the effects of climate change
How many years is estimated before amphibians and reptiles in Southeast Asia will have reached the limit of their ability to adapt to climate change?
we estimate that in 50 years, amphibians and reptiles in southeast asia will have reached or exceeded most limits in their abilities to adapt to the effects of climate change
amphibians and reptiles will be adversely affected by projected rapid changes in climate in the next decades. here, we review the known and potential impacts of climate change on the southeast asian amphibians and reptiles and make mitigation recommendations for both research and policy. current amphibian and reptile distributions and ecologies mirror climate patterns, and we expect that adaptation to changes in these parameters will be too slow relative to their rate of expected change, and that pervasive changes will occur to species assemblages, communities, and ecosystem functioning and services. southest asia is a network of islands with relatively few mountains, effectively preventing most herpetofauna from migrating away from the effects of climate change. reflecting specific known and hypothesized physiological and ecological thresholds, we estimate that in 50 years, amphibians and reptiles in southeast asia will have reached or exceeded most limits in their abilities to adapt to the effects of climate change and that temperature dependent sex determination, higher metabolic rates, and less bio-available water will have severe and irreversible effects on these organisms. we suggest that human decision-making and policy development have already lagged and that societal change is happening too slowly for effective mitigation. if we are to avert devastating loss of biodiversity and a complete meltdown of ecosystem services, we must quickly change our attitudes and thinking about how we interact with and use biological systems. keywords amphibians  climate change  conservation  extinction  reptiles  southeast asia  policy abbreviations ccsm community climate system model enso el nin~o southern oscillation ipcc international panel on climate change npp net primary productivity
What is the relation between the level of dry solids and the water content in the sludge?
the relation between the level of dry solids and the water content in the sludge is given by: water content (%) 100 - dry solids level (%) (5.1) a sludge with a level of dry solids of 2% has a water content of 98
In kg, how much water and solids are in every 100 kg of sludge?
therefore, in every 100 kg of sludge, 98 kg are water and 2 kg are solids
What variable influences the mechanical properties of the sludge?
the water content influences the mechanical properties of the sludge and these influence the handling processes and the final disposal of the sludge
the relation between the level of dry solids and the water content in the sludge is given by: water content (%) 100 - dry solids level (%) (5.1) a sludge with a level of dry solids of 2% has a water content of 98%. therefore, in every 100 kg of sludge, 98 kg are water and 2 kg are solids. overview of sludge treatment and disposal 249 the water content influences the mechanical properties of the sludge and these influence the handling processes and the final disposal of the sludge. the relation between the water content and the mechanical properties in most forms of sludges is (van haandel and lettinga, 1994):
What was calculated in the  simulations of Matala et al (2005) ?
in the simulations, the growth of single trees with ample supply of water and nitrogen was calculated under varying co2 concentration and no shading in the southern finnish conditions. death of trees is determined by crowding with consequent reduction in growth and the probability of a particular tree dying at a given moment. furthermore, trees die due to random reasons. litter and dead trees end up on and in the soil, where they are decomposed with subsequent release of nitrogen bound in som
On what are based the simulation?
simulations are based on the monte carlo simulation technique, i.e. certain events, such as death of trees, are stochastic events. each time such an event is possible (e.g. it is possible for a tree to die every year), the algorithm selects whether or not the event will take place by comparing a random number with the probability of occurrence of the event
How many times were repeated the simulations on each sample pot?
simulations are based on the monte carlo simulation technique, i.e. certain events, such as death of trees, are stochastic events. each time such an event is possible (e.g. it is possible for a tree to die every year), the algorithm selects whether or not the event will take place by comparing a random number with the probability of occurrence of the event
matala et al (2005) in the simulations, the growth of single trees with ample supply of water and nitrogen was calculated under varying co2 concentration and no shading in the southern finnish conditions. death of trees is determined by crowding with consequent reduction in growth and the probability of a particular tree dying at a given moment. furthermore, trees die due to random reasons. litter and dead trees end up on and in the soil, where they are decomposed with subsequent release of nitrogen bound in som. simulations are based on the monte carlo simulation technique, i.e. certain events, such as death of trees, are stochastic events. each time such an event is possible (e.g. it is possible for a tree to die every year), the algorithm selects whether or not the event will take place by comparing a random number with the probability of occurrence of the event. the probability of an event is a function of the state of the forest ecosystem at the time when the event is possible. each run of the code is one realization of all possible time courses of ecosystem development. therefore, the simulations are repeated several times in order to determine the central tendency of variations in the time behaviour of the forest ecosystem. the model is run on an annual basis for areas of 100 m2; these areas represent the permanent sample plots of the finnish national forest inventory. for each sample plot, simulations were repeated 50 times. b input to model runs (i) sites the study covered 26 mha of forest land represented by the permanent sample plots of the finnish national forest inventory. the sample plots were established by the finnish forest institute in 1985. the plots are located in blocks of four plots in the south and three in the north. the blocks form a 16 16 km2grid in southern finland and a 32 32 km2
How the earth is represented?
as a parsimonious demonstration of time-varying teff from regional climate feedbacks, consider a simple model wherein the earth is represented by three regions of equal area, each described by a local energy balance [eq. (5
How this regions be associated ?
we associate these regions with land, low-latitude oceans (low), and high-latitude oceans (high), and choose properties of each to broadly mimic the distinct geographic patterns of surface warming and feedbacks identified previously
Why the basic ingredients are necessary?
hese basic ingredients are sufficient to qualitatively reproduce the time dependence of teff within gcms
as a parsimonious demonstration of time-varying teff from regional climate feedbacks, consider a simple model wherein the earth is represented by three regions of equal area, each described by a local energy balance [eq. (5)]. we associate these regions with land, low-latitude oceans (low), and high-latitude oceans (high), and choose properties of each to broadly mimic the distinct geographic patterns of surface warming and feedbacks identified previously. that is, we set 2 lhigh 2 lland 2 llow as in fig. 5a. for simplicity, we assume a constant heat capacity for each region, with values cland  clow chigh chosen to simulate the fast response of land and slow response of the high latitudes as in fig. 3. these basic ingredients are sufficient to qualitatively reproduce the time dependence of teff within gcms. table 1 summarizes the model parameters and their numerical values, though these exact values are less important than the principle of their interaction. we additionally prescribe the same value of radiative forcing in each region and neglect changes in heat transport between regions. the three-region model, similar in form to those used previously (e.g., bates 2007, 2010), is then described simply by
what do the findings of this study suggest?
the findings suggest that strategies to support the implementation of new mental health treatments and services should attend to organizational culture and climate, and to the compatibility of organizational service structures with the demand characteristics of treatments
Which clinics had high turnover rates?
clinics with separate children's services units had higher turnover rates than clinics that served adults and children within the same unit
the present study incorporates organizational theory and organizational characteristics in examining issues related to the successful implementation of mental health services. following the theoretical foundations of socio-technical and cultural models of organizational effectiveness, organizational climate, culture, legal and service structures, and workforce characteristics are examined as correlates of therapist turnover and new program sustainability in a nationwide sample of mental health clinics. results of general linear modeling (glm) with the organization as the unit of analysis revealed that organizations with the best climates as measured by the organizational social context (osc) profiling system, had annual turnover rates (10%) that were less than half the rates found in organizations with the worst climates (22%). in addition, organizations with the best culture profiles sustained new treatment or service programs over twice as long (50 vs. 24 months) as organizations with the worst cultures. finally, clinics with separate children's services units had higher turnover rates than clinics that served adults and children within the same unit. the findings suggest that strategies to support the implementation of new mental health treatments and services should attend to organizational culture and climate, and to the compatibility of organizational service structures with the demand characteristics of treatments. keywords organizational culture  organizational climate  organizational social context  osc  therapist turnover  sustainability as noted in the to this issue, the objectives of the childsteps clinic systems project (csp) were to describe a large national sample of mental health organizations in terms of constructs that are hypothesized, on the basis of a synthesis of theory and research, to affect the
What poses unprecedented threats to sandy beach ecosystems worldwide?
escalating pressures caused by the combined effects of population growth, demographic shifts, economic development and global climate change pose unprecedented threats to sandy beach ecosystems worldwide
What does conservation of beaches as functional ecosystems and protection of their unique biodiversity require?
conservation of beaches as functional ecosystems and protection of their unique biodiversity requires management interventions that not only mitigate threats to physical properties of sandy shores, but also include ecological dimensions
What does beach management remain overwhelming focused on?
beach management remains overwhelmingly focused on engineering interventions
escalating pressures caused by the combined effects of population growth, demographic shifts, economic development and global climate change pose unprecedented threats to sandy beach ecosystems worldwide. conservation of beaches as functional ecosystems and protection of their unique biodiversity requires management interventions that not only mitigate threats to physical properties of sandy shores, but also include ecological dimensions. yet, beach management remains overwhelmingly focused on engineering interventions. here we summarise the key outcomes of several workshops, held during the 2006 sandy beach ecology symposium in vigo, spain, that addressed issues of climate change, beach management and sampling methodology. because efficient communication between managers and ecologists is critical, we summarise the salient features of sandy beaches as functional ecosystems in 50 'key statements'; these provide a succinct synopsis of the main structural and functional characteristics of these highly dynamic systems. key outcomes of the workshops include a set of recommendations on designs and methods for sampling the benthic infaunal communities of beaches, the identification of the main ecological effects caused by direct and indirect human interventions, the predicted consequence of climate change for beach ecosystems, and priority areas for future research.
What do the oxygen isotope composition of forminiferal tests depend on?
both the d18o and the temperature of ambient seawater during calcification
What happens after termination of the anomalous freshwater forcing?
present-day thc remains in the ''off'' mode, whereas the glacial circulation recovers (monostability
the oxygen isotope composition of foraminiferal tests depends on both the d18o and the temperature of ambient seawater during calcification. because the mean d18o of ocean water significantly changed during the deglaciation owing to the melting of continental ice and freshwater runoff, we corrected the benthic isotope records figure 4. (a) zonal mean atlantic temperature simulated by the hybrid-coupled model under presentday conditions, contour interval is 2  c. (b) simulated glacial anomaly, contour interval is 1  c. figure 5. temporal evolution of the atlantic meridional overturning circulation in meltwater perturbation experiments under (a) present-day and (b) glacial conditions (the time series are filtered by 2-year running means). in the unperturbed state (before year zero) the overturning ratio, i.e., the ratio of nadw export to the southern ocean across 30  s (shown here) and maximum overturning in the north atlantic, is about 0.75. a meltwater input of 0.15 sv is applied to the north atlantic between years 0 and 500. after termination of the anomalous freshwater forcing, the present-day thc remains in the ''off'' mode, whereas the glacial circulation recovers (monostability).
What is the effect am?
the effect am is the difference between the historical climate of model m and the expected climate m the interaction terms gmf represent the difference between the climate response simulated by model m and the expected response bf
what it represents the random component msr ?
the random component msr represents the internal variability in the ymsr and is assumed to be normally distributed
How ymsr can be describe?
sansom et al. (2013) show that ymsr can be described by the anova framework
let ymsr represent a climate statistic from model m scenario s and run r from a multimodel ensemble of m models and n runs containing a historical h and a future f scenario. sansom et al. (2013) show that ymsr can be described by the anova framework: ymsr 5 m 1 am 1 bs 1 gms 1 msr and msr iid n (0, s2), (a1) where the effect m is the expected climate in the historical scenario and bf is the expected climate change response. the effect am is the difference between the historical climate of model m and the expected climate m the interaction terms gmf represent the difference between the climate response simulated by model m and the expected response bf. the random component msr represents the internal variability in the ymsr and is assumed to be normally distributed. the framework is subject to the constraints that
what is the enhanced understanding of gene functions in relation to stress?
genomic selection the enhanced understanding of gene functions in relation to stress tolerance and continual reduction of dna marker costs makes genomic selection a promising strategy to improve abiotic and biotic stress resistance (heffner et al. 2009; jannink et al. 2010
what does the genomic selection use to predict performance?
genomic selection uses high-density dna marker information to predict performance
how does DNA marker information approach differ from others?
this approach seems more suitable for improvement of quantitative traits determined by many genes with small effects than classical marker-assisted selection targeting individual quantitative gene loci. albrecht et al. (2011) could show that models including genomic information in prediction of maize testcross performance yielded significantly higher prediction accuracies than models based on pedigree information alone. according 17 17 to our present knowledge, no results are yet available from genomic selection for sorghum and pearl millet
genomic selection the enhanced understanding of gene functions in relation to stress tolerance and continual reduction of dna marker costs makes genomic selection a promising strategy to improve abiotic and biotic stress resistance (heffner et al. 2009; jannink et al. 2010). genomic selection uses high-density dna marker information to predict performance. this approach seems more suitable for improvement of quantitative traits determined by many genes with small effects than classical marker-assisted selection targeting individual quantitative gene loci. albrecht et al. (2011) could show that models including genomic information in prediction of maize testcross performance yielded significantly higher prediction accuracies than models based on pedigree information alone. according 17 17 to our present knowledge, no results are yet available from genomic selection for sorghum and pearl millet.
Which becomes a multi-billion dollar business?
the response to climate change is becoming more and more a "multi-billion dollar business" with the design of funds directed to all kinds of projects in both the private and public sectors
What are the initiatives should be included?
the initiatives must thus include, on the one hand, efforts aimed at assuring women's access to funds to meet climate objectives with, on the other hand, the generation of beneficial gender-based effects, that is to say, the possibility for women to acquire improved energy technologies, traditionally out of their reach
What is the response based?
the response to this question must be based on a right combination of carbon reduction (climate objective) and equity (development objective
skutsch, on the other hand, underlines that the response to climate change is becoming more and more a "multi-billion dollar business" with the design of funds directed to all kinds of projects in both the private and public sectors. given this reality, the problem is then "whether women are likely to be able to take an equal share in this, and what needs to be done to ensure that they do" .82 the response to this question must be based on a right combination of carbon reduction (climate objective) and equity (development objective). the initiatives must thus include, on the one hand, efforts aimed at assuring women's access to funds to meet climate objectives with, on the other hand, the generation of beneficial gender-based effects, that is to say, the possibility for women to acquire improved energy technologies, traditionally out of their reach. moreover, it should be attempted to keep both men and women's lifestyles less emissions-intensive while safeguarding equal opportunities and environmental sound practices for all.
What is the final conceptual issue which is important in the context of climate change?
the final conceptual issue which is particularly important in the context of climate change is the distinction between static and dynamic costs
What cost is measured In a static approach?
in a static approach the cost that is measured is one that compares two discrete situations. in this case, one with climate change and one without
What types of costs may be ignored in a so-called static approach?
there are costs that are associated with making the change which may be ignored in a static approach
the final conceptual issue which is particularly important in the context of climate change is the distinction between static and dynamic costs. in a static approach the cost that is measured is one that compares two discrete situations. in this case, one with climate change and one without. there are costs that are associated with making the change which may be ignored in a static approach. these are termed adjustment costs and are the focus of a dynamic approach. with climate change these costs may include things such as migration and reduction. a population could have an equally high level of welfare in a new location once it had established itself, but there are likely to be substantial reductions in welfare that are the consequence of having to relocate.
What are the  factors affecting radial growth of all four species?
all our pca and bootstrapped correlation analysis results together indicated that the previous summer temperature and moisture budget as well as current march-april temperatures were the common factors affecting radial growth of all four species though these factors were not found at all the sites
How the previous summer temperatures affected radial growth?
for example, previous summer temperatures were shown to negatively affect radial growth of trembling aspen at most latitudes, of paper birch at 48-50 1 n, of black spruce at almost all the latitudes, and of jack pine at 47-50 1 n
How climate conditiond in late summer influence the size of the buds?
climate conditions in late summer generally influence the size of the buds and the number of leaf primordials produced within them for the growth of predetermined boreal conifers in the previous year (kozlowski et al ., 1991
all our pca and bootstrapped correlation analysis results together indicated that the previous summer temperature and moisture budget as well as current march-april temperatures were the common factors affecting radial growth of all four species though these factors were not found at all the sites. for example, previous summer temperatures were shown to negatively affect radial growth of trembling aspen at most latitudes, of paper birch at 48-50 1 n, of black spruce at almost all the latitudes, and of jack pine at 47-50 1 n. hot previous summer temperatures could enhance stand respiration and evapotranspiration, thereby resulting in increased water deficits. this water-stress effect was also confirmed by positive correlation to previous june precipitation and negative correlation to previous summer mdc at many latitudes. climate conditions in late summer generally influence the size of the buds and the number of leaf primordials produced within them for the growth of predetermined boreal conifers in the previous year (kozlowski et al ., 1991). the size of the dormant bud then affects the amount of leaf area for the most photosynthetically efficient class of leaves and
How will comfort be affected by Climate Change?
in the case of comfort, building occupants will be increasingly dependent on the opportunities that the social and physical characteristics of the building offer them to adapt to the changes
What does the adaptive principle tell us?
the adaptive principle tells us that people will change themselves and their environment to achieve comfort, but this also assumes that their behaviour is appropriate in the changed circumstances
What can architects learn from scientific analysis?
for architects there are important lessons to be learned from the scientific analysis of buildings, and in the light of this the study of local vernacular buildings
the implications of climate change for comfort and health have been presented. in the case of comfort, building occupants will be increasingly dependent on the opportunities that the social and physical characteristics of the building offer them to adapt to the changes. the effectiveness of these will depend on the ability of occupants to change their behaviour and attitude to the building as the changes occur. the adaptive principle tells us that people will change themselves and their environment to achieve comfort, but this also assumes that their behaviour is appropriate in the changed circumstances. the tendency to open windows in hot weather, for instance, is only helpful if this has the effect of cooling the building; if the weather outside is very hot this may make things worse. the temperature at which there is an increased risk of illness due to heat depends on the normal outdoor conditions. this suggests that similar cultural considerations apply to health as to comfort. countries with a cold climate, such as scandinavia, have learned to insulate their buildings against the cold. likewise behaviour in hot climates is more appropriate to the heat. some of this is related to learning appropriate behaviour (for instance by drinking more water) and some of it is in the provision of appropriate buildings, such as those that take advantage of thermal mass to reduce indoor temperature variability in temperate or desert climates. for architects there are important lessons to be learned from the scientific analysis of buildings, and in the light of this the study of local vernacular buildings. for national and local authorities the study of buildings and the understanding of the effects of weather patterns in existing climates can give important clues for the provision of warnings and help to communities struggling with unexpected conditions. the wrong conclusions can also follow; for instance an overreliance on the provision of mechanical systems to alleviate the more extreme conditions. these can add to the problem of climate change through the excessive use of fossil fuel energy. it is also becoming increasingly clear that the assumption that energy is always available can be misleading when extreme weather puts a strain on energy utilities. for buildings to provide a safe and comfortable environment in the future they should:
Were people suprised by the violence of Hurricane Stan?
37 when hurricane stan passed through chiapas, many people were surprised by the violence of its impact
Is migration an option for low-income villagers?
38 yet when very low-income villagers were asked whether migration was an option for them, most respondents underlined that they have no other place to go
What increased the desire of farmers to emigrate?
the recurrence of natural disaster combined with the presence of relatives who emigrated due to disasters in the past increases the desire of farmers to emigrate
migration is already a response in mexico to changing environmental conditions, the 1980s agricultural crisis and economic liberalization. 37 when hurricane stan passed through chiapas, many people were surprised by the violence of its impact. one interviewee noted, "the river took away our homes and properties; we also were close to being taken away." 38 yet when very low-income villagers were asked whether migration was an option for them, most respondents underlined that they have no other place to go. yet, for those who are better off or who have relatives abroad, migration is an option. the recurrence of natural disaster combined with the presence of relatives who emigrated due to disasters in the past increases the desire of farmers to emigrate. 39 on the other hand, diversification of livelihood strategies 40 and government investment on disaster risk management decreases the likelihood of migration, regardless of poverty status. 41
Worldwide approximately how many people live within 20 m of sea level?
worldwide approximately 400 million people live within 20 m of sea level
how much percent people live within 20 km of a coast?
around 23% within 20 km of a coast
which is one of the many cities that face the same problem as London?
18 venice is one of the many cities that face the same problem as london
worldwide approximately 400 million people live within 20 m of sea level, and around 23% within 20 km of a coast. however, this figure is difficult to calculate properly from existing data. eleven of the world's largest cities are on the coast and in the usa a staggering 53% of the population live near the coast and may therefore be vulnerable to surges in sea levels. 18 venice is one of the many cities that face the same problem as london, that as sea levels rise the city itself is sinking on its alluvial soils. in 1900 the central area of venice around st mark's square flooded around 10 times a year. today it is closer to 100 times a year and over the century venice has actually sunk by around 20 cm. if scientists are right and sea levels rise between 40 - 60 cm over the next century and the city continues to sink at the same rate, then the eventual inundation of the city is inevitable and it will, it is predicted, be uninhabitable by 2100. 19 many are sceptical that the proposed barrier around the lagoons of the city will ever materialize, not least because of its cost, which is put in the billions rather than millions
How many times a year is a biomass harvest done?
above-ground biomass harvests (anpp) of all standing plant material (dead and alive) in all communities were conducted twice a year
What months did the biomass harvests take place?
were conducted twice a year (early in july and mid september) in 2005-2009
What were the two functional groups in Grassland B Four species?
grassland b four species, two functional groups (grass, forb
above-ground biomass harvests (anpp) of all standing plant material (dead and alive) in all communities were conducted twice a year (early in july and mid september) in 2005-2009, resembling local table 1. experimental plant communities in the event-i experiment (jentsch, kreyling beierkuhnlein 2007) representing grassland vegetation in central europe: three functional diversity levels varied by number of species, growth form and presence / absence of legume abbreviation vegetation type diversity level description species g2) grassland a two species, one functional group (grass) arrhenatherum elatius holcus lanatus g4) grassland b four species, two functional groups (grass, forb) arrhenatherum elatius holcus lanatus plantago lanceolata geranium pratense g4+ grassland c four species, three functional groups (grass, forb, leguminous forb) arrhenatherum elatius holcus lanatus plantago lanceolata lotus corniculatus g, grassland; 2 / 4, number of species; without legume; with legume
What is the hydraulic detention time?
the hydraulic detention time (t) is the average residence time of the liquid molecules in the reactor
What is the solids retention time?
the solids retention time, or sludge age thc) is the average residence time of the bacterial cells in the reactor
What happen in the case of complete-mix aerated lagoons?
in the case of complete-mix aerated lagoons, due to the non-existence of sludge recirculation or any form of solids retention, the molecules of the liquid and the bacterial cells remain the same time in the reactor (t th c). this important aspect has hydraulic and process implications. in the activated sludge system, the sludge age is the main design parameter. however, in complete-mix aerated lagoons, the hydraulic detention time sludge age) constitutes the main parameter. in complete-mix aerated lagoons, the detention time varies in the range of: t 2 to 4 d if more than one cell in series is adopted, the detention time in each one can be close to 2 days. the advantage of having detention times around 2 days is the reduction in the growth of algae, which could be washed out of the lagoon without being able to develop
the hydraulic detention time (t) is the average residence time of the liquid molecules in the reactor. the solids retention time, or sludge age thc) is the average residence time of the bacterial cells in the reactor. in the case of complete-mix aerated lagoons, due to the non-existence of sludge recirculation or any form of solids retention, the molecules of the liquid and the bacterial cells remain the same time in the reactor (t th c). this important aspect has hydraulic and process implications. in the activated sludge system, the sludge age is the main design parameter. however, in complete-mix aerated lagoons, the hydraulic detention time sludge age) constitutes the main parameter. in complete-mix aerated lagoons, the detention time varies in the range of: t 2 to 4 d if more than one cell in series is adopted, the detention time in each one can be close to 2 days. the advantage of having detention times around 2 days is the reduction in the growth of algae, which could be washed out of the lagoon without being able to develop. b) depth the depth of the pond should be selected in order to satisfy the requirements of the aeration equipment, in terms of mixing and oxygenation. usually, depth values are in the range of: h 2 5 to 4 0 m complete-mix aerated lagoons followed by sedimentation ponds 567
HOW DID DESIGN THE MESSAGES?
messages designed to create, recall, and highlight relevant personal experience and to elicit an emotional response
WHAT ARE THE ANALYTIC PRODUCTS REFER TO ?
analytic products (such as trend analyses, forecast probabilities, and ranges of uncertainty
WHAT ARE THE MATERIALS INVOLVED IN THE BALANCED INFORMATION IN THE EXAMPLE?
analytic and experiential materials
messages designed to create, recall, and highlight relevant personal experience and to elicit an emotional response. analytic products (such as trend analyses, forecast probabilities, and ranges of uncertainty) help people absorb facts and can be valuable tools when people need to make big decisions, but they alone will not compel people to take effective steps to address the climate change challenge, as the example on page 17 illustrates. the example above shows how information balanced with both analytic and experiential materials may be more likely to have an effect on attitudes and behavior, creating a desire in people to act on their new knowledge.
Has the increase in greenhouse gases substantially changed climate?
the increase in greenhouse gases has already substantially changed climate
What are the 12 warmest years on record within the past 150 years?
the 12 warmest years on record within the past 150 years have been during the past 13 years: 1998 was the warmest, followed by 2005, 2002, 2003, and 2004
To what is global warming due?
the ipcc states that the evidence for global warming is unequivocal and is believed to be due to human activity.4 this idea is supported by many organisations, including the royal society and the american association for the advancement of science
the increase in greenhouse gases has already substantially changed climate; average global temperatures have risen 0*76degc and the sea level has risen over 4 cm. seasonality and intensities of precipitation, weather patterns, and substantial retreat of the arctic sea ice and almost all continental glaciers have dramatically changed.4 the 12 warmest years on record within the past 150 years have been during the past 13 years: 1998 was the warmest, followed by 2005, 2002, 2003, and 2004. the ipcc states that the evidence for global warming is unequivocal and is believed to be due to human activity.4 this idea is supported by many organisations, including the royal society and the american association for the advancement of science.
How can we motivate  climate change adaption?
cost-effectiveness
What is a 'measure'?
measures - a measure is a combination of a policy and an action
Which type of adaptation is estimated to be cheaper
planned adaptation
climate change adaptation needs to be a new municipal concern motivated by cost-effectiveness. planned adaptation is likely to be less expensive than reactive adaptation to climate events similar to the 1998 ice storm, the 2001 and 2002 droughts, and possibly the walkerton crisis, which are expected to become more frequent and more intense. early adoption of cost-effective measures - a measure is a combination of a policy and an action (e.g. volumetric water pricing and water meter installation) - regional cooperation, cooperation with the province, with municipal organizations and the insurance industry should be encouraged. small eastern ontario rural municipalities and cas need to progressively develop an integrated strategy for adaptation to climate change. this strategy should be integrated with both their planning and operations. it should be elaborated, preferably, at the regional/watershed level and in collaboration with municipal 124 adaptation to climate change in eastern ontario
Climate Change Tell us about climate change?
however, climate change will likely not just bring temperature increases. depending on the region, climate change may also contribute to other weather-related events
Climate change Give examples of temperature change?
for example, flooding is expected to become more common in specific regions such as the united kingdom.(21)recent u.k. weather patterns appear to be inline with this prediction
Has the United Kingdom experienced widespread flooding?
between 2007 and 2012, the united kingdom experienced widespread flooding.(22)though not a projected climate change impact for this region, during this time the country also experienced belowaverage winter and summer temperatures.(23)hence, the question remains as to which weather experiences may inform the climate change beliefs of u.k. residents
however, climate change will likely not just bring temperature increases. depending on the region, climate change may also contribute to other weather-related events.(20)for example, flooding is expected to become more common in specific regions such as the united kingdom.(21)recent u.k. weather patterns appear to be inline with this prediction. between 2007 and 2012, the united kingdom experienced widespread flooding.(22)though not a projected climate change impact for this region, during this time the country also experienced belowaverage winter and summer temperatures.(23)hence, the question remains as to which weather experiences may inform the climate change beliefs of u.k. residents.
What are environmental fluctuations all about?
mid and long-term environmental fluctuations have long been a part of melanesian engagements with the physical world, and have consequently given rise to coping strategies that are inherent to traditional knowledge practices
Who are the investigators of cases of indigenous adaptability to climate change in Melanesia?
damon and mondragon report on two case studies of indigenous adaptability to climate change in island melanesia
What are the cases investigated on Milanesia?
in the first case, the islands of muyuw and the kula ring of papua new guinea constitute an extremely dynamic climatological environment, one in which patterns of drought and rainfall have had a profound impact on the human stewardship (and modification) of the islands' vegetation and soils. local populations report significant concerns with sea level rise and observed alterations in complex understandings of weather patterns
mid and long-term environmental fluctuations have long been a part of melanesian engagements with the physical world, and have consequently given rise to coping strategies that are inherent to traditional knowledge practices. damon and mondragon report on two case studies of indigenous adaptability to climate change in island melanesia. in the first case, the islands of muyuw and the kula ring of papua new guinea constitute an extremely dynamic climatological environment, one in which patterns of drought and rainfall have had a profound impact on the human stewardship (and modification) of the islands' vegetation and soils. local populations report significant concerns with sea level rise and observed alterations in complex understandings of weather patterns. harvest activities vary because people expect intraannual patterns to be unpredictably upset by interannual patterns, the droughts of enso events. the torres islands are situated in a very highly active seismic region that provokes constant, violent shifts in shoreline ecologies and hydrodynamics. distributing environmental risk is a central element in traditional small island vulnerability mitigation strategies, such as the scattering of food production sites. the authors argue that overall changes to the local shoreline, especially in relation to soil quality, vegetation growth and hydrodynamics, as provoked by extreme seismic uplift and downlift, offer a unique and informative example of the longterm adaptability that is present in both the human population and the observed coastal milieu of these islands, and is applicable to climate change adaptation.
What is an interplay
we next examined the interplay among the five constructs of greatest interest: acceptance of climate science, acceptance of other scientific propositions, free-market ideology, the belief that previous environmental problems have been resolved, and conspiracist ideation. for this analysis, climate science was considered separately from the other scientific propositions
What is acceptance of climate science?
we next examined the interplay among the five constructs of greatest interest: acceptance of climate science, acceptance of other scientific propositions, free-market ideology, the belief that previous environmental problems have been resolved, and conspiracist ideation. for this analysis, climate science was considered separately from the other scientific propositions
What is five constructs?
we next examined the interplay among the five constructs of greatest interest: acceptance of climate science, acceptance of other scientific propositions, free-market ideology, the belief that previous environmental problems have been resolved, and conspiracist ideation. for this analysis, climate science was considered separately from the other scientific propositions
we next examined the interplay among the five constructs of greatest interest: acceptance of climate science, acceptance of other scientific propositions, free-market ideology, the belief that previous environmental problems have been resolved, and conspiracist ideation. for this analysis, climate science was considered separately from the other scientific propositions. constructs were measured using the manifest variables identified in the earlier factor analyses, and acceptance of other scientific propositions was measured by causehiv and causesmoke. for the climate-science factor, pairwise correlations were estimated between co2tempup and co2atmosup, and between co2willnegchange and co2hasnegchange, as this improved model fit considerably. an exploratory model that estimated correlations among all five latent variables fit well, kh2(78) 261.0, p .0001, cfi .997, rmsea 0.045, 90% ci [0.039, 0.051]; the pairwise correlations between the latent variables are given in table 2.
What would you say contribute to the migration of "decisions" in the Mekong Delta?
fieldwork from the each-for project indicated that lack of alternative livelihoods, deteriorating ability to make a living in the face of flooding, together with mounting debt, can contribute to the migration "decisions" in the mekong delta
During flooding season, where do people migrate to?
during the flooding season, people undertake seasonal labor migration and movement towards urban centers to bolster livelihoods
Which profession is the most exposed and vulnerable when successive flooding events destroy crops?
people directly dependent on agriculture for their livelihood (such as rice farmers) are especially vulnerable when successive flooding events destroy crops
fieldwork from the each-for project indicated that lack of alternative livelihoods, deteriorating ability to make a living in the face of flooding, together with mounting debt, can contribute to the migration "decisions" in the mekong delta. people directly dependent on agriculture for their livelihood (such as rice farmers) are especially vulnerable when successive flooding events destroy crops. this can trigger a decision to migrate elsewhere in search of an alternative livelihood. during the flooding season, people undertake seasonal labor migration and movement towards urban centers to bolster livelihoods. as an extreme coping mechanism, anecdotal information from fieldwork pointed to human trafficking as one strategy adopted by some families who have suffered from water-related stressors. a migrant interviewee referred to the financial vulnerability of her family related to flooding, "disasters occurred so often my family lost the crop, my family had to borrow money to spend. now, my family is not able to pay off the loan so i have to come here to work to help my family to pay the loan."87
What changes cannot be uniquely determined for individual emission scenarios.
temperatures, precipitation, and other climate variables and phenomena
What changes are not readily expressed in monetary or other common units?
impacts such as the changes in the composition and function of ecological systems, species extinction, and changes in human health, and disparity in the distribution of impacts across different populations, are not readily expressed in monetary or other common units
What are incompletely characterized and cannot be compared to directly mitigation costs?
the benefits of different greenhouse gas emission reduction actions, including actions to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations at selected levels
comprehensive, quantitative estimates of the benefits of stabilization at various levels of atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases do not yet exist. advances have been made in understanding the qualitative character of the impacts of climate change. because of uncertainty in climate sensitivity, and uncertainty about the geographic and seasonal patterns of projected changes in temperatures, precipitation, and other climate variables and phenomena, the impacts of climate change cannot be uniquely determined for individual emission scenarios. there are also uncertainties about key processes and sensitivities and adaptive capacities of systems to changes in climate. in addition, impacts such as the changes in the composition and function of ecological systems, species extinction, and changes in human health, and disparity in the distribution of impacts across different populations, are not readily expressed in monetary or other common units. because of these limitations, the benefits of different greenhouse gas emission reduction actions, including actions to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations at selected levels, are incompletely characterized and cannot be compared directly to mitigation costs for the purpose of estimating the net economic effects of mitigation.
What did brown do?
produced a hierarchical classification of the vegetation of north america
How big was the test interval?
0.05
How many terrestrian points were produced?
with ca. 164,000 terrestrial points
plant associations brown et al. (1998) have produced a hierarchical classification of the vegetation of north america that uses climate as a primary consideration. the western united states includes, for instance, at the second level of the hierarchy, four formations (tundra, forests and woodlands, scrublands, and deserts) that segregate along gradients of moisture stress, and at the third level, four climatic subdivisions (arctic-alpine, boreal, cold temperate, and warm temperate). biotic communities appear at the fourth level as the recurring associations recognized by indicator species. twenty-five terrestrial biotic communities occur within our geographic window (table 2). a digitized outline of the spatial distribution of the communities was conveniently provided to us. to prepare a data set for statistical analyses, a series of points was located systematically across the geographic window at intervals of 0.05  in latitude and longitude (a grid of ca. 6 km), producing a data set with ca. 164,000 terrestrial points. the sampling interval of 0.05  was a compromise between finer grids that would have been computationally impractical and coarser grids that would have increased the risk of not sampling small polygons. altitudes were estimated for each point from the digital elevation model of globe (globe task team 1999), climate variables (table 1) were generated for each point from the climate surfaces, and the
Why did residents in the Grafton incident 18 in Australia in 2001 refuse to leave?
17 flood defences can give a false sense of security, as was found in the grafton incident 18 in australia in 2001, where residents refused to leave because they were convinced the defences would protect them (in the event they did, but only just
Is it true that there is only one cause that people would have when it comes to refusing to evacuate?
there may be a number of causes of people refusing to evacuate
Are humans perception of risk accurate all the time?
risk perception: human perception of risk is often very different from actual risk
there may be a number of causes of people refusing to evacuate. for example: risk perception: human perception of risk is often very different from actual risk. professor paul slovic has spent a lifetime studying and trying to explain this phenomenon. 17 flood defences can give a false sense of security, as was found in the grafton incident 18 in australia in 2001, where residents refused to leave because they were convinced the defences would protect them (in the event they did, but only just.) companion animals: professor heath at purdue university, indiana, usa, has carried out extensive research on the evacuation behaviour of pet owners in the usa. 19 he found that the main threats to public health from pet ownership in disasters are:
What are the points are in Quiggin and horowicz?
non-linearity in climate change impacts was pointed out by quiggin and horowicz (2003
What are the causes of climate change ?
they postulated a model of climate change impacts and showed that damages associated with climate change were a convex function of the rate of warming, causing the expected damage level to be greater than the damage associated with the expected rate of warming
What is tha common fact presented in above paragraph?
the fact that the effects of global change are highly uncertain, especially at a local level, implies losses that are independent of risk-aversion or convexity of the damage function
another important non-linearity in climate change impacts was pointed out by quiggin and horowicz (2003). they postulated a model of climate change impacts and showed that damages associated with climate change were a convex function of the rate of warming, causing the expected damage level to be greater than the damage associated with the expected rate of warming. a corollary is that studies based simply on the expected rate of warming will understate the expected damage. the non-linear and stochastic nature of the damage function will mean the likely costs of damage from climate change will be greater than in the case where a point estimate based on the expected rate of climate change is used in estimating the damage cost. stochasticity quiggin and horowicz (2003) point out that uncertainty implies losses over and above those associated with the convexity of the damage function associated with climate change. they comment: "the fact that the effects of global change are highly uncertain, especially at a local level, implies losses that are independent of risk-aversion or convexity of the damage function." (p.444). farmers facing climate change uncertainty will make investment decisions that ex post
what is the definition of Natural ecosystem variability ?
natural ecosystem variability can be generally defined as the behaviour of an ecosystem in the absence of human impact
what did cause separating change?
separating change caused by natural variability from change caused by human activity can be difficult
what is the central challenge for ecosystem ?
separating change caused by natural variability from change caused by human activity can be difficult; it is a central challenge for ecosystem science
natural ecosystem variability can be generally defined as the behaviour of an ecosystem in the absence of human impact. for lakes such variability may be related both to exogenous factors (such as climate variability) and endogenous ones (e.g. related to stochastic ecological processes or secular change associated with infilling and seral succession). however, separating change caused by natural variability from change caused by human activity can be difficult; it is a central challenge for ecosystem science (cottingham et al. 2000). lake sediment records uniquely allow this issue to be addressed (cf.simpson anderson, 2009) by examining palaeoecological data for time periods prior to the first evidence of human impact and by identifying underlying natural patterns in system behaviour that may, without sufficient temporal context for guidance, be mistakenly interpreted as a consequence of human activity. 9 9
Why assessing the vulnerability of transportation in Canada to climate change is an important step?
an important step toward ensuring a safe, efficient and resilient transportation system in the decades ahead
Which study represents a relatively new field of study, particularly compared to sectors such as water resources, agriculture and fisheries?
climate change impacts and adaptation in the canadian transportation sector
What are the Canada's transportation discussion largely restricted to?
restricted to canada's road, rail, air and water systems
for passenger movements, canadians everywhere rely on private automobiles for short and medium trips, but air traffic dominates interprovincial and international movements, and public transit is primarily a large-city phenomenon. assessing the vulnerability of transportation in canada to climate change is an important step toward ensuring a safe, efficient and resilient transportation system in the decades ahead. our present system is rated as one of the best in the world.(6)despite this, transportation in canada remains sensitive to a number of weather-related hazards, as illustrated by recent examples (table 2). future climate change of the magnitude projected for the present century by the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc), specifically an increase in global mean annual temperature of 1.4-5.8degc,(15)would have both positive and negative impacts on canada's transportation infrastructure and operations. these impacts would be caused by changes in temperature and precipitation, extreme climate events (including severe storms), and water level changes in oceans, lakes and rivers. the main sensitivities of canada's transportation system to such changes are summarized in figure 1. this chapter examines recent research on climate change impacts and adaptation in the canadian transportation sector, recognizing that this represents a relatively new field of study, particularly compared to sectors such as water resources, agriculture and fisheries (other chapters of this report). an overview of potential impacts of climate change on transportation infrastructure and operations is followed by an examination of adaptation issues related to design and construction, information systems, and the need for a more resilient and sustainable transportation system. discussion is largely restricted to canada's road, rail, air and water systems, although the transportation sector, in the broadest sense, includes such other infrastructure as pipelines, energy transmission and communication networks. 2001-2002 a mild winter with reduced snowfall in southern ontario and quebec saved the insurance industry millions of dollars from road-accident claims.(7)
Processed-based LCA in Microsoft Excel are used to estimate what three factors?
the cumulative energy, climate change impacts, and economics of biochar production from corn stover, yard waste, and switchgrass feedstocks at a slowpyrolysis facility in the united states are estimated using process-based lca in microsoft excel
What happens to collected biomass after it's been transported to the pryolysis facility?
once the biomass is collected, it is transported to the pyrolysis facility where it is reduced in size and dried
goal and scope. the cumulative energy, climate change impacts, and economics of biochar production from corn stover, yard waste, and switchgrass feedstocks at a slowpyrolysis facility in the united states are estimated using process-based lca in microsoft excel. the goal of the biochar energy, greenhouse gases, and economic (begge) lca is to quantify the energy, greenhouse gas, and economic flows associated with biochar production for a range of feedstocks. the biochar system for the lca has four coproducts: biomass waste management, c sequestration, energy generation, and soil amendment. the functional unit of the biochar-pyrolysis system is the management of 1 tonne of dry biomass. the reference flows for this system are the mass and c in the biomass feedstock and the energy associated with biochar production. system boundaries. the industrial-scale biochar production system boundaries are illustrated in figure 1a. the method of biomass production and collection is dependent on the feedstock (with more details provided in the individual process descriptions and in the online supporting information (si)). once the biomass is collected, it is transported to the pyrolysis facility where it is reduced in size and dried.
The relationships between viral production in surface waters and temperature show that, in what systems have higher viral production rates are associated with warmer temperatures?
the relationships between viral production in surface waters and temperature (fig. 4) also show that, in coldwater systems, higher viral production rates are associated with warmer temperatures
In what systems is there a trend for viral production rates to be higher at warmer temperatures?
in cold-water systems, there is a trend for viral production rates to be higher at warmer temperatures
The data on viral production and temperature in the benthic compartment are very what?
the data on viral production and temperature in the benthic compartment are very unevenly distributed making any inferences weak
the relationships between viral production in surface waters and temperature (fig. 4) also show that, in coldwater systems, higher viral production rates are associated with warmer temperatures. the relationship for warmtemperate systems (i.e. systems at tropical and midlatitudes) is less clear, although there is a downward trend with increasing temperature. these results are consistent with the scenario that different oceanic regions will respond differently to changes in surface temperatures caused by climate change. the data on viral production and temperature in the benthic compartment are very unevenly distributed making any inferences weak; however, in cold-water systems, there is a trend for viral production rates to be higher at warmer temperatures (fig. 4b). the inferred changes in viral abundance and production associated with higher temperatures are secondary effects stemming from changes in host cell communities, but physical effects such as changes in virus-decay rates with temperature (nagasaki yamaguchi, 1998; wells
How does Bern2.5D climate mode work?
we use the bern2.5d climate model, an earth system model of intermediate complexity. it consists of a zonally averaged dynamic ocean model (stocker and wright 1991; wright and stocker 1991) resolving the atlantic, pacific, indian, and southern oceans, coupled to a zonally and vertically averaged energy and moisture-balance model of the atmosphere (stocker et al. 1992; schmittner and stocker 1999
What do feedback processes produce?
feedback processes that increase the climate sensitivity s are represented by the
we use the bern2.5d climate model, an earth system model of intermediate complexity. it consists of a zonally averaged dynamic ocean model (stocker and wright 1991; wright and stocker 1991) resolving the atlantic, pacific, indian, and southern oceans, coupled to a zonally and vertically averaged energy and moisture-balance model of the atmosphere (stocker et al. 1992; schmittner and stocker 1999). the additional radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere is specified as  ftoat   fdirt   tatmt,  1  where  fdir is the direct radiative forcing reconstructed over the industrial period. feedback processes that increase the climate sensitivity s are represented by the
What terms are used for the problem of childhood obesity?
terms like "epidemic," "crisis," and "emergency" are used frequently when describing the trend
What has been done to control childhood obesity?
dozens of possible remedies have been proposed, with various solutions aimed at individuals, parents, government, and institutions such as schools, media, and the food industry, as well as at broad social forces, including the economics of food and physical activity
What is being ignored in preventing childhood obesity?
studies to identify how to generate support for higher and more uniform taxes could be extremely valuable. awareness and will of the general public as well as in federal and state governments must increase to permit the changes necessary to prevent childhood obesity
after years of near total neglect, the problem of childhood obesity is now in the limelight. terms like "epidemic," "crisis," and "emergency" are used frequently when describing the trend. progress is defined with strong language (e.g., the need for a "war" on obesity) and fueled by statistics such as the observation that this generation of children will be the first to live shorter lives than their parents.1 multi-disciplinary journals such as the journal of law, medicine ethics have dedicated symposiums to the issue,2 and conferences have been convened not only by health professionals but by government agencies,3the food industry, and even professionals who market to children.4the seriousness of childhood obesity is no longer in doubt, and finally attention has turned to the more complex question - what must be done? dozens of possible remedies have been proposed, with various solutions aimed at individuals, parents, government, and institutions such as schools, media, and the food industry, as well as at broad social forces, including the economics of food and physical activity.5 research must progress far beyond its current state to evaluate both the general effectiveness and costeffectiveness of specific interventions. often ignored in this discussion of tactics are the factors necessary for the uptake and implementation of approaches that have the potential to change public health. the potential is only realized when change is implemented on a broad scale, requiring certain conditions be in place. for instance, taxing cigarettes is a powerful means of curbing tobacco use, but for this potential to be exploited, there must be public and political will to institute these taxes.6 the political will is weak at the federal level, and states vary widely - rhode island has the highest state tax in the nation ($2.46 per pack) and south carolina the lowest (seven cents per pack).7 studies to identify how to generate support for higher and more uniform taxes could be extremely valuable. awareness and will of the general public as well as in federal and state governments must increase to permit the changes necessary to prevent childhood obesity. this requires full understanding of barriers to change and an analysis of the factors that will promote change. both barriers and facilitating factors vary region by region and country by country, but there are common
What challanges does Bangladesh faces with long term planning?
including the need for well-defined planning structures and procedures; the fact that information about climate change related issues is scattered and sometimes difficult to access; the difficulty of establishing integrated environmental management, while the management of these resources does require integration; weak physical planning capacity with respect to land use planning,; a strongly centralized system of planning and management, while adaptation needs mutual coordination between central and local levels of management; inadequacy of traditional planning techniques, because impacts may not occur in the near future (i.e. within the next decade) and uncertainties about changes in the regional climate and the corresponding impacts are still significant
Why projects are not ccurring easily in developing countries?
climate change issues are handled by environment ministries or meteorological services
Why is the Work Bank uniquely positioned?
comprehensive approach to sustainable development and strong ties to its clients' finance ministries
in bangladesh, the country team undertook a major study to assess climate change impacts in this highly vulnerable country, as well as adaptation options (world bank 2000b). it suggested that the country should develop an anticipatory long-term approach, focusing firstly on national planning agencies. it also concluded that long-term planning faces a number of challenges, including the need for well-defined planning structures and procedures; the fact that information about climate change related issues is scattered and sometimes difficult to access; the difficulty of establishing integrated environmental management, while the management of these resources does require integration; weak physical planning capacity with respect to land use planning,; a strongly centralized system of planning and management, while adaptation needs mutual coordination between central and local levels of management; inadequacy of traditional planning techniques, because impacts may not occur in the near future (i.e. within the next decade) and uncertainties about changes in the regional climate and the corresponding impacts are still significant. the projects and studies in the pacific, caribbean and bangladesh all show that some urgent adaptation needs can be identified, and that an important strategy to address most of the new risks is to strengthen capacity to deal with current climate-related risks. the overarching challenge is to integrate adaptation in development planning, rather than creating stand-alone adaptation projects. an important reason why such mainstreaming is not occurring rapidly and easily is that in most developing countries, climate change issues are handled by environment ministries or meteorological services, which are generally not in a position to ensure that climate risks are taken seriously into account by other line ministries, or by the central agencies of government, especially finance and planning. once finance ministries become convinced of the severe economic and fiscal (besides social and environmental) consequences that climate change could have (see e.g. the imf publication heller 2003), they are in a much better position to promote the urgent integration of climate risk management in development planning and projects. the world bank, with its comprehensive approach to sustainable development and strong ties to its clients' finance ministries, is uniquely positioned to promote and facilitate such a process (as demonstrated in the pacific).
What has the Netherlands done to advance adaptation policies?
netherlands has done a lot to advance adaptation policies. this country has high vulnerability to climate change because of its low altitude, but also has a strong capacity to adapt to natural adversities. netherlands has assessed the best adaptation strategies to cope with the consequences of climate change, mainly by implementing large infrastructure projects and making adaptations in land-use planning
What has the European Commission contributed?
the european commission has organised conferences on the theme and produced a paper indicating policy options for adaptation to climate change in europe in 2007
What are island states' policies on adaptation?
however, island states such as vanuatu have started adaptation policies with a priority on evacuation of the population because they lack the resources to adapt
private enterprise can potentially unleash signifi cant investment for adaptation in cities; local government must encourage local fi nancial services, insurance, and provision of appropriate supplies to encourage adaptation, but major infrastructural investment will remain the duty of the government. the attraction of local governments into climate change adaptation investment is complementary to development of goals. although much of the policy eff orts have been made to reduce climate change, adaptation in human settlements has gained momentum in the past few years among international development organisations. un habitat has held conferences to discuss global responses to climate change concerning human settlements. iclei (local governments for sustainability) launched the cities for climate protection programme involving many cities worldwide. however, many initiatives lack suffi cient funding for implementation at a large scale and links to other related international initiatives, such as the millennium development goals. regional initiatives to cope with adaptation to climate change exist, but few yield results. the european commission has organised conferences on the theme and produced a paper indicating policy options for adaptation to climate change in europe in 2007.161 there are also un-led initiatives for small-island countries in the pacifi c region and the caribbean (some of the most vulnerable regions to climate change), such as the pacifi c island adaptation initiative and the caribbean adaptation to climate change and sea level rise, both started in 2003. in the highly urbanised south america and rapidly urbanising asia and africa, some initiatives also exist. however, most of these are in the early stages of execution and might funding for implementation in the medium and long term. national governments are still reticent to tackle the adaptation challenges of human settlements. netherlands has done a lot to advance adaptation policies. this country has high vulnerability to climate change because of its low altitude, but also has a strong capacity to adapt to natural adversities. netherlands has assessed the best adaptation strategies to cope with the consequences of climate change, mainly by implementing large infrastructure projects and making adaptations in land-use planning. however, island states such as vanuatu have started adaptation policies with a priority on evacuation of the population because they lack the resources to adapt. countries have issues engaging in climate change policies when they confl ict with their national development interests.162
which temperature data on predicted changes?
summer temperature (mean values for june, july, and august
whom modeled the regional climate of Fennoscandia?
sweclim has modeled the regional climate of fennoscandia
which degree the climate data provided for this paper were modeled?
the climate data provided for this paper were modeled at a 0.5-degree grid cell resolution (20-27 x 56 km
data on predicted changes in summer temperature (mean values for june, july, and august) were provided by sweclim, a swedish regional climate-modeling project. sweclim has modeled the regional climate of fennoscandia based on two different general circulation models, one from the hadley centre, uk, and one from the max-planck institut, germany (hereafter called scenarios hc and mpi, respectively; see rummukainen et al. (2001) and raisanen et al. (2001, 2004) for details on the regional climate models). in short, the climate data provided for this paper were modeled at a 0.5-degree grid cell resolution (20-27 x 56 km) and consisted of the predicted values after 100 years of simulation, i.e., roughly at year 2100 (fig. 2). the two scenarios give different predictions for the increases in summer temperature, with scenario hc predicting increases of
What is the subject of Sun-weather relations is founded on?
the subject of sun-weather relations is founded on correlations between solar and atmospheric variables, but to make further progress now requires investigations at the mechanistic level
What the observation of a correlation between cosmic ray intensity and cloudiness offers?
the observation of a correlation between cosmic ray intensity and cloudiness offers an opportunity for a mechanistic understanding in terms of ionaerosolcloud interactions
What is the relation between the behavior of ions in the atmosphere and cloud properties?
the known behavior of ions in the atmosphere suggests that variations in their production rate by cosmic rays will impact aerosol and cloud processes to some extent, but it remains to be established whether such variations could lead to detectable changes in cloud properties
the subject of sun-weather relations is founded on correlations between solar and atmospheric variables, but to make further progress now requires investigations at the mechanistic level. the observation of a correlation between cosmic ray intensity and cloudiness offers an opportunity for a mechanistic understanding in terms of ionaerosolcloud interactions. the known behavior of ions in the atmosphere suggests that variations in their production rate by cosmic rays will impact aerosol and cloud processes to some extent, but it remains to be established whether such variations could lead to detectable changes in cloud properties. the aim of mechanistic investigations is to go beyond mere association of observed variables to a situation where predictions can be made and tested. however, in this respect, the cosmic ray-cloud problem offers an even greater challenge than other aerosol-cloud interaction problems at the frontier of current research. demonstrating overall cause and effect, beginning with changes in ionization rate and ending with observations of perturbed clouds, will present a challenge. the natural variability of clouds at a single location due to meteorology, aerosol abundance, and composition changes will make it difficult to detect a few percent modulation caused by ionization. as a result, the signal of a cosmic ray influence, if it exists, may show up only in long-term and large-area averages, such as those indicated in fig. 1. however, such averages open up the possibility that numerous other processes could contribute to the observed variability, complicating efforts to discern a clear regional pattern associated with cosmic rays. it will also be difficult to separate solar and cosmic ray effects, both of which vary in a similar way. geomagnetic field variations could in principle untangle this ambiguity because they affect cosmic rays but not solar irradiance, but these variations occur on much longer time scales than the solar variations. nevertheless, recent progress has been made in understanding the physical processes involved in the cosmic ray-cloud effect, upon which further studies can build. laboratory work under carefully controlled conditions is needed to study the microphysics of ionaerosolcloud interactions and to measure poorly constrained parameters in the present models. field studies of aerosol nucleation bursts are needed that include measurements of ion mobility and, if possible, ion chemical composition to allow quantitative comparisons with models and the laboratory measurements. improved observations of stratiform clouds are required, especially concerning the electrical conditions and aerosol charges at the cloud boundaries and within clouds. more realistic aerosol and cloud models are required that incorporate the ion effects measured in the laboratory and field. combined efforts in this direction may quite quickly be able to establish whether cause and effect is plausible, and to quantify the physical processes involved in the interactions of cosmic rays with clouds.
Why was there focus on a much larger number of plants for hydropower?
because fewer input parameters are required to describe the power plant characteristics in the hydropower model than for the thermoelectric power model
What was the multiple regression model was fitted for?
390 hydropower plants
What was the multiple regression model was used for?
to assess the hydraulic head
for hydropower, we focused on a much larger number of plants (24,515) because fewer input parameters are required to describe the power plant characteristics in the hydropower model than for the thermoelectric power model. all hydropower plants together contribute 78% of the total installed hydropower usable capacity worldwide as reported by eia20. a multiple regression model was used to derive hydraulic head. we merged information of the dam height reported by the global reservoir and dam database (grand)21 with the hydropower plants from the weppd based on exact corresponding latitude-longitude of hydropower plants between grand and weppd. we then fitted a multiple regression relation between dam height with installed capacity of the hydropower plant, elevation, differences in elevation with downstream located cell and simulated mean monthly lowest and highest streamflow for the grid cell at the hydropower plant site. to estimate elevation and elevation differences at each of the hydropower plant sites we use gtopo3022 at 30-arc seconds (1x1 km at the equator) spatial resolution. the multiple regression model was fitted for 390 hydropower plants and was used to assess the hydraulic head. the coefficient of determination of this model was moderate (r2=0.51), but we considered this as acceptable given the global scale application, which restricts the availability of detailed data and use of more explanatory variables. in addition, sensitivity analyses show limited impacts of uncertainties in hydraulic head on simulated changes in hydropower usable capacity under climate change (see section 3, fig s9a).
What were participants asked to explore initially?
initially, participants were asked to explore how they conceptualized the future, before considering the role climate change may play in this future
Did this study use visual images or attitude statements?
q-methodology is typically carried out using attitude statements, but some research has employed visual images, as in this study
How many images were used?
thirty-two
the semistructured interviews explored participants' perceptions of climate change in relation to the mental imagery that they associated with the issue and their engagement with climate change in terms of their senses of personal salience and efficacy. the questions were based on an exploration of the three key themes of the imagery study: climate change imagery, personal salience, and personal efficacy. initially, participants were asked to explore how they conceptualized the future, before considering the role climate change may play in this future. questions were then introduced to elicit the imagery that people have in their minds about climate change. this was followed by questions exploring participants' opinions on the causes and impacts of climate change, including investigating individual behavioral and emotional responses to the issue. further methodological details are available in nicholson-cole (2004). q-methodology is a technique for eliciting, evaluating, and comparing human subjectivity; it offers the means to identify shared attitude structures and perspectives among individuals regarding a certain problem. the q-method part of this research was based on two image sorting tasks aimed to elicit shared attitude structures concerning (a) the perceived salience and (b) the personal efficacy dimensions of climate change (for more information about q-methodology, see mckeown thomas, 1988; robbins krueger, 2000). q-methodology is typically carried out using attitude statements, but some research has employed visual images, as in this study (e.g., fairweather swaffield, 2001). thirty-two full color postcard-sized images were used in the q-sorting tasks (see box 1 for a descriptive list). the task asked participants to twice sort the images into a grid with two extremes; first according to how personally important or unimportant the images made climate change seem; and second according to how able or unable the images made them feel to do anything about climate change. in both cases, participants were asked to place the pictures that they felt least strongly about or pictures that they did not find relevant to the question in the middle of the grid. the pictures were selected from the public domain based on a selection system to generate a good representation of different aspects of the climate change issue, or the full "concourse" on climate change (e.g., different kinds of impacts and responses at different scales and in the united kingdom and abroad). this drew on four key sources: the types of imagery revealed in the interview data, six expert interviews, an international review of the climate change scientific literature (ipcc, 2001), and the imagery employed in environmental ngo campaign material online.
What is useful about formal economic models?
formal economic models are useful for exploring particular, stylised aspects of the problem, such as the role of attitudes toward intergenerational equity and risk in estimating the cost of climate change, and the role of behavioural changes in the economy as a whole in determining the cost of mitigation
What did the second line of investigations introduce?
the second line of investigation in the review introduced the results of integrated assessment models of the cost of future climate change (impacts and adaptation: chapter 6) and macroeconomic models of the cost of mitigation (chapter 10
What do we believe, we rightly issued?
we issued, rightly in our view, strong warnings against a literal interpretation of these models and their results, warnings that all too many analysts appear to have ignored
nevertheless, formal economic models are useful for exploring particular, stylised aspects of the problem, such as the role of attitudes toward intergenerational equity and risk in estimating the cost of climate change, and the role of behavioural changes in the economy as a whole in determining the cost of mitigation. thus the second line of investigation in the review introduced the results of integrated assessment models of the cost of future climate change (impacts and adaptation: chapter 6) and macroeconomic models of the cost of mitigation (chapter 10). we issued, rightly in our view, strong warnings against a literal interpretation of these models and their results, warnings that all too many analysts appear to have ignored.
What effect did the simulated cooling and increase in seasonal sea ice and brine rejection have?
the simulated cooling and increase in seasonal sea ice and brine rejection likely affected vertical density gradients and stratification of the circum-antarctic ocean, with probable consequences for the location and magnitude of deep-water formation and the thermohaline component of meridional overturning
What would have affected circum-Antarctic water column structure?
fresh water runoff during times of deglaciation, also lacking in our model, also would have affected circum-antarctic water column structure
What did Mikolajewicz and Huber speculate?
on the basis of their numerical modeling work, mikolajewicz et al. [1993] and huber et al. [2004] speculated that the indirect influence of southern ocean gateways on the marine carbon cycle and atmospheric co2 may be figure 12
while we tested sea ice response to a wide range of possible cenozoic forcings (table 1), the computational demands imposed by the long spin-up times of ocean general circulation models precluded the use of a coupled atmosphere-ocean gcm (aogcm) model for the 19 experiments run here. our slab-ocean component does not include an explicit representation of the deep ocean; however, the dramatic seasonal sea ice expansion in response to ice sheet growth shown in figure 3 eludes possible linkages between ice sheets, sea ice, thermohaline circulation, and atmospheric co2. the simulated cooling and increase in seasonal sea ice and brine rejection likely affected vertical density gradients and stratification of the circum-antarctic ocean, with probable consequences for the location and magnitude of deep-water formation and the thermohaline component of meridional overturning. fresh water runoff during times of deglaciation, also lacking in our model, also would have affected circum-antarctic water column structure. however, any resulting changes in ocean circulation may have had only minimal effects on the antarctic interior, as suggested by coupled gcm-ice sheet simulations deconto and pollard 2003b], in which imposed changes in poleward ocean heat transport are shown to have only a small effect on antarctic glacial mass balance. on the basis of their numerical modeling work, mikolajewicz et al. [1993] and huber et al. [2004] speculated that the indirect influence of southern ocean gateways on the marine carbon cycle and atmospheric co2 may be figure 12. the simulation of an east antarctic ice sheet as simulated by the dynamical ice sheet model for (a) the minseaice case and (b) the maxseaice case. ice sheet geometry (ice surface elevation (top panels) and ice thickness (bottom panels) are shown after 100,000 years and are fully equilibrated with the forcing climatologies. (c) the difference in ice sheet elevations (maxseaice minus minseaice) shows the net effect of sea ice feedback on ice sheet evolution.
What are the characteristics of the pond to maximize the influence of the wind?
the pond should not be surrounded by natural or artificial obstacles that could obstruct the wind access
Why shouldn't the pond have a very irregular shape?
the pond should not have a very irregular shape, which could hinder the homogenisation of the peripheral areas with the main pond body
What is the thermocline?
the pond is also subject to thermal stratification in which the upper layer (warm) is not mixed with the lower (cold) layer. when deepening down in the pond, there is a point with a great decrease in the temperature, accompanied by high density and viscosity increases. this point is called the thermocline
transport to the deeper layers of the oxygen produced by photosynthesis in the photic zone to maximise the influence of the wind the pond should not be surrounded by natural or artificial obstacles that could obstruct the wind access. additionally, the pond should not have a very irregular shape, which could hinder the homogenisation of the peripheral areas with the main pond body. the pond is also subject to thermal stratification in which the upper layer (warm) is not mixed with the lower (cold) layer. when deepening down in the pond, there is a point with a great decrease in the temperature, accompanied by high density and viscosity increases. this point is called the thermocline thus, two distinct layers are formed: the superficial one (lower density) and the bottom one (greater density), which are not mixed (see figure 13.6). the behaviour of the algae is influenced by the stratification according to:
What do alternate scores represent?
alternate scores represent less likely, but not unreasonable, estimates for a given metric
What method was used to find a range of likely status scores for the species being considered?
contrasting the total bestestimate score in each module (i.e., sum of the best estimate for all 10 metrics) with highest and lowest score totals (derived from a combination best and alternate estimates) provided an indication of the range of likely status scores likely for the species under consideration
What would a certainty score of 3 mean for a particular judgment?
generally, a certainty score of 3 meant the judgment was strongly supported by published reports, especially in the peer-reviewed
two methods for evaluating certainty/uncertainty were incorporated into the scoring system. first, each metric was assigned a best-estimate score and an alternate score. the best estimate was derived from empirical evidence or professional judgment of the most likely case. alternate scores represent less likely, but not unreasonable, estimates for a given metric. where a best estimate had high certainty, an alternate score was not assigned. contrasting the total bestestimate score in each module (i.e., sum of the best estimate for all 10 metrics) with highest and lowest score totals (derived from a combination best and alternate estimates) provided an indication of the range of likely status scores likely for the species under consideration. second, each best-estimate score was assigned a numeric certainty (confidence) evaluation of high (score 3), medium (score 2), or low (score 1). these ordinal rankings were based on expert judgment concerning the quantity and quality of the information that was the basis of the best estimate scores. generally, a certainty score of 3 meant the judgment was strongly supported by published reports, especially in the peer-reviewed
What is the abbreviation for Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 listed in the paragraph?
cmip5
What type of aerosols is the CMIP5 database observing?
sulfate
What does abbreviation NAO stand for?
north atlantic oscillation
the ability of the climate models submitted to the coupled model intercomparison project 5 (cmip5) database to simulate the northern hemisphere winter climate following a large tropical volcanic eruption is assessed. when sulfate aerosols are produced by volcanic injections into the tropical stratosphere and spread by the stratospheric circulation, it not only causes globally averaged tropospheric cooling but also a localized heating in the lower stratosphere, which can cause major dynamical feedbacks. observations show a lower stratospheric and surface response during the following one or two northern hemisphere (nh) winters, that resembles the positive phase of the north atlantic oscillation (nao). simulations from 13 cmip5 models that represent tropical eruptions in the 19th and 20th century are examined, focusing on the large-scale regional impacts associated with the large-scale circulation during the nh winter season. the models generally fail to capture the nh dynamical response following eruptions. they do not sufficiently simulate the observed post-volcanic strengthened nh polar vortex, positive nao, or nh eurasian warming pattern, and they tend and engineering, thuwal 23955-6900, saudi arabia
Is the temperature impacts on energy use restricted to the degree-days effect?
temperature impacts on energy use are not restricted to the degree-days effect
What is directly proportional to the change in temperature?
the useful energy is directly proportional to the change in temperature, therefore, assuming that the coef fi cient of performance28of cooling and heating equipments does not change, higher temperature differences increases the amount of time the device is working which, in turn, raises energy consumption
Is there a shortage of studies on modeling heating and cooling demand?
at the global scale, there is a shortage of studies on modeling heating and cooling demand comparing present and projected future climate
in addition, temperature impacts on energy use are not restricted to the degree-days effect. additional energy could be demanded by the heating and cooling equipments as a result of variations in temperature. the useful energy is directly proportional to the change in temperature, therefore, assuming that the coef fi cient of performance28of cooling and heating equipments does not change, higher temperature differences increases the amount of time the device is working which, in turn, raises energy consumption. 5.2. global impact the effects of climate change on energy demand at the global level can be ambiguous as higher temperatures would reduce heating demand while increasing cooling demand. at the global scale, there is a shortage of studies on modeling heating and cooling demand comparing present and projected future climate. for instance attempted to estimate climate impacts on global energy demand (for heating and cooling) using simpli fi ed relationships based on the activity, structure and intensity effects. the heating energy demand decreased by 34% worldwide by 2100 as a result of climate change and air conditioning energy demand increased by 72% the scarcity of studies is, in part,
Who will prepared an account of work?
this document was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the united states government
What are the account references for the United States Government?
reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise, does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the united states government or the university of california
What are the views and opinions for product endorsement Purposes?
the views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the united states government or the university of california, and shall not be used for advertising or product endorsement purposes
this document was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the united states government. neither the united states government nor the university of california nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise, does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the united states government or the university of california. the views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the united states government or the university of california, and shall not be used for advertising or product endorsement purposes.
How does climate change impact livestock?
summary, the livestock development issues raised by climate change can perhaps be best characterised as follows: they are highly intertwined, they are complex, some of the possible impacts at broad scales are reasonably well-researched while others are not, and currently many of the agricultural and other impacts at local scales are simply not known
How much does climate change cost us?
there are barriers, limits, and costs, but these are not fully understood, let alone quantified (ipcc, 2007
How does climate change impact our homes?
how these impacts may combine to affect household vulnerability, and how adaptive capacity may be most effectively increased, are critical issues that need considerable attention. although a lot of work on a wide array of adaptation options is being undertaken, more extensive adaptation than is currently occurring is needed to reduce vulnerability to future climate change
in summary, the livestock development issues raised by climate change can perhaps be best characterised as follows: they are highly intertwined, they are complex, some of the possible impacts at broad scales are reasonably well-researched while others are not, and currently many of the agricultural and other impacts at local scales are simply not known. how these impacts may combine to affect household vulnerability, and how adaptive capacity may be most effectively increased, are critical issues that need considerable attention. although a lot of work on a wide array of adaptation options is being undertaken, more extensive adaptation than is currently occurring is needed to reduce vulnerability to future climate change. there are barriers, limits, and costs, but these are not fully understood, let alone quantified (ipcc, 2007). as many people have pointed out, there are many factors that will determine whether specific adaptation options are appropriate and viable in particular locations. understanding what these factors are and where they operate is key to identifying vulnerable households and implementing adaptation options that can maintain or raise incomes and household food security. in many of these places, livestock will have a critical role to play.
What is the difference between habitat and area?
difference between the area of habitat gained and lost relative to predicted habitat area in 2020 according to species distribution models (sdm; range) and differences in occupied area according to coupled niche-population models (niche-pop model; range
What is the difference between habitat and area?
difference between the area of habitat gained and lost relative to predicted habitat area in 2020 according to species distribution models (sdm; range) and differences in occupied area according to coupled niche-population models (niche-pop model; range
What is the difference between habitat and area?
difference between the area of habitat gained and lost relative to predicted habitat area in 2020 according to species distribution models (sdm; range) and differences in occupied area according to coupled niche-population models (niche-pop model; range
difference between the area of habitat gained and lost relative to predicted habitat area in 2020 according to species distribution models (sdm; range) and differences in occupied area according to coupled niche-population models (niche-pop model; range). also shown is the expected minimum adult abundance in 2100 relative to mean abundance in 2020 (ema), and movement of the most northern 10thpercentile of the metapopulation between 2020 and 2100 relative to the distance between the range margin and weighted population centroid in 2020 (margin). metrics are presented for three sdm approaches [bio-ensembles, maxent, maxent (with substrate)] and two climate change scenarios: a high co2 concentration stabilising scenario (wre750) and a heavy mitigation scenario, assuming substantive policy intervention (lev1). see methods for details.
Enaggement rings most often contain what Gem?
diamond
Soldiers are often armed with?
guns
What scientific idea regarding the temperature of our planet is a hotly debated subject?
limate change
diamond in guns, germs and steel and collapse and geoffrey sachs in the end of poverty and common wealth after offering a brief account of how climate reductionism has come to prominence, i turn my attention to understanding why this should be. why should an explanatory logic - if not an ideology dating from earlier intellectual and imperial eras, a logic subsequently dismissed by many as seriously wanting, have re-emerged in different form in a new century to find new and enthusiastic audiences? rather than offering an explanation, and hence a justification, for the superiority of imperial societies, cultures and races - as in past ideological variants of determinism - i will suggest here a different reason for the contemporary attraction of climate reductionism, and how it has come to prominence. i suggest that the hegemony exerted by the predictive natural sciences over human attempts to understand the unfolding future, opens up the spaces for climate reductionism to emerge. it is a hegemony manifest in the pivotal role held by climate (and related) modelling in shaping climate change discourses. because of the epistemological authority over the future claimed, either implicitly or explicitly, by such modelling activities27
In determining extinction risk in the species-based approach, what method was used?
predictions of range dislocation (no overlap between current range and future projected range) were used as an indicator of extinction risk
In determining extinction risk in the biome-based approach, what method was used?
predictions of biome areal loss were overlayed with species richness data for the family proteaceae to estimate extinction risk
How were climate scenarios for 2050 generated?
climate scenarios for 2050 generated by the general circulation models hadcm2 and csm were interpolated for the region
bioclimatic modelling was used to identify environmental limits for vegetation at both biome and species scale. for the biome as a whole, and for 330 species of the endemic family proteaceae, tolerance limits were determined for five temperature and water availability-related parameters assumed critical for plant survival. climate scenarios for 2050 generated by the general circulation models hadcm2 and csm were interpolated for the region. geographic information systems-based methods were used to map current and future modelled ranges of the biome and 330 selected species. in the biome-based approach, predictions of biome areal loss were overlayed with species richness data for the family proteaceae to estimate extinction risk. in the species-based approach, predictions of range dislocation (no overlap between current range and future projected range) were used as an indicator of extinction risk. a method of identifying local populations imminently threatened by climate change-induced mortality is also described.
Why were modifications introduced to CropSyst?
modifications were introduced to cropsyst in order to account for the effects of atmospheric co2 concentration on plant growth and water use
What are these modifications similar to?
these modifications are similar to those presented by sto"ckle et al. (1992) 
In order to double the atmospheric CO2 from 350 to 700 ppm, what was the percentage of potential crop growth specified to increase by for C3 crops?
for a doubling of atmospheric co2 from 350 to 700 ppm, potential crop growth was specified to increase by 25% for c3 crops and by 10% for c4 crops
modifications were introduced to cropsyst in order to account for the effects of atmospheric co2 concentration on plant growth and water use. these modifications are similar to those presented by sto"ckle et al. (1992) and are summarised in table 2 for selecting values of gratio, a coefficient used to increase daily crop rue table 2 ), one differentiated between c3 (wheat, barley, sunflower and soybean) and c4 crops (maize and sorghum), but assumes the same response for crops within each of the two classes. for a doubling of atmospheric co2 from 350 to 700 ppm, potential crop growth was specified to increase by 25% for c3 crops and by 10% for c4 crops.
what are the implications of flooding?
flooding is one of the most frequent and widespread of all environmental hazards. floods of various types and magnitudes occur in most terrestrial portions of the globe, causing huge annual losses in terms of damage and disruption to economic livelihoods, businesses, infrastructure, services and public health
what the long term data on natural disasters suggest?
long term data on natural disasters suggest that floods and wind storms (which frequently lead to flooding) have been by far the most common causes of natural disaster worldwide over the past 100 years
What is the data of the Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies?
according to the international federation of red cross and red crescent societies, in the 10 years from 1993 to 2002 flood disasters 'affected more people across the globe (140 million per year on average) than all the other natural or technological disasters put together' (ifrc, 2003, p179
flooding is one of the most frequent and widespread of all environmental hazards. floods of various types and magnitudes occur in most terrestrial portions of the globe, causing huge annual losses in terms of damage and disruption to economic livelihoods, businesses, infrastructure, services and public health. long term data on natural disasters suggest that floods and wind storms (which frequently lead to flooding) have been by far the most common causes of natural disaster worldwide over the past 100 years. according to the international federation of red cross and red crescent societies, in the 10 years from 1993 to 2002 flood disasters 'affected more people across the globe (140 million per year on average) than all the other natural or technological disasters put together' (ifrc, 2003, p179). this chapter provides a contextual summary of the nature of flood hazard now and in future, a conceptual background to the analysis of flood risk and response, and an overview of some generic issues relating to flood risk reduction.
Why the selection criteria for ECVs has been historically a challenge?
because of their diversity
How many key variables did GCOS 1997 identify to characterize land surfaces?
as many as 70
Which are the two factors that mostly determine the adoption of variables as ECVs when studying land surface temperature?
complexity of interpretation, and limited utility for climate monitoring
consistency of the ecv list. consistently applying the selection criteria for ecvs has been a challenge because of their diversity. this extends to adding or removing variables: the importance of many other variables has long been recognized (gcos 1997 identified as many as 70 key variables to characterize land surfaces), but their adoption as ecvs has been hampered by other considerations: for instance, in the case of land surface temperature, complexity of interpretation, and limited utility for climate monitoring. some variables have been initially "carried over" as ecvs because of their historical importance and availability, though they might not have been selected in the absence of such a legacy (e.g., chlorophyll concentration in the top ocean layer).
What adaptation measures account for more than 95 percent of the adaptation measures followed by the farm households who actually undertook an adaptation measure?
in response to long term perceived changes, farm households had undertaken a number of adaptation measures. changing crop varieties, adoption of soil and water 13 13 conservation measures, and tree planting were major forms of adaptation strategies followed by the farm households in our study sites. these adaptation measures are mainly yield-related and account for more than 95 percent of the adaptation measures followed by the farm households who actually undertook an adaptation measure
What adaptation measures account for less than 5 percent of the adaptation measures?
the remaining adaptation measures accounting for less than 5 percent were water harvesting, irrigation, non-yield related strategies such as migration, and shift in farming practice from crop production to livestock herding or other sectors
What percentage of farm households took no adaptation measures in response to long term shifts in temperature and precipitation?
on the other hand, about 58 percent and 42 percent of the farm households had taken no adaptation measures in response to long term shifts in temperature and precipitation, respectively
in addition, one of the survey instruments was designed to capture farmers' perceptions and understanding on climate change, and their approaches on adaptation. questions were included to investigate whether the farmers have noticed changes in mean temperature and rainfall over the last two decades, and reasons for observed changes. about 68, 4, and 28 percent perceived mean temperature as increasing, decreasing and remaining the same over the last twenty years, respectively. similarly, 18, 62 and 20 percent perceived mean annual rainfall increasing, declining and remaining the same over the last twenty years, respectively. overall, increased temperature and declining precipitations are the predominant perceptions in our study sites. in response to long term perceived changes, farm households had undertaken a number of adaptation measures. changing crop varieties, adoption of soil and water 13 13 conservation measures, and tree planting were major forms of adaptation strategies followed by the farm households in our study sites. these adaptation measures are mainly yield-related and account for more than 95 percent of the adaptation measures followed by the farm households who actually undertook an adaptation measure. the remaining adaptation measures accounting for less than 5 percent were water harvesting, irrigation, non-yield related strategies such as migration, and shift in farming practice from crop production to livestock herding or other sectors. on the other hand, about 58 percent and 42 percent of the farm households had taken no adaptation measures in response to long term shifts in temperature and precipitation, respectively. more than 90 percent of the respondents who took no adaptation measure indicated lack of information, land, money and shortages of labour, as major reasons for not undertaking any adaptation measure. lack of information is cited as the predominant reason by 40-50 percent of the households.
What year did the ablation seasons over Greenland were simulated?
the 1990 and 1991 ablation seasons over greenland are simulated with a coupled atmosphere-snow regional climate model with a 25 km horizontal resolution
What were the two comparism highlights all about?
these two comparisons highlight a large sensitivity of the remote sensing observations to weather conditions
What is the cause of over estimation?
there are overestimations along the steep eastern coast which are most likely due to the "topographic barrier effect
the 1990 and 1991 ablation seasons over greenland are simulated with a coupled atmosphere-snow regional climate model with a 25 km horizontal resolution. the simulated snow water content allows a direct comparison with the satellite derived melt signal. the model is forced with 6-hourly era-40 reanalysis at its boundaries. an evaluation of the simulated precipitation and a comparison of the modelled melt zone and the surface albedo with remote sensing observations are presented. both the distribution and quantity of the simulated precipitation agree with observations from coastal weather stations, estimates from other models and the era-40 reanalysis. there are overestimations along the steep eastern coast which are most likely due to the "topographic barrier effect". the simulated extent and time evolution of the wet snow zone compare generally well with satellite derived data, except during rainfall events on the ice sheet and because of a bias in the passive microwave retrieved melt signal. although satellite based surface albedo retrieval is only valid in the case of clear sky, the interpolation and the correction of these data enable us to validate the simulated albedo on the scale of the whole greenland. these two comparisons highlight a large sensitivity of the remote sensing observations to weather conditions. our high resolution climate model has been used to improve the retrieval algorithms by taking more fully into account the atmosphere variability. finally the good agreement of the simulated melting surface with the improved satellite signal allows a detailed estimation of the melting volume from the simulation.
What is an effect of temperature rise in the oceans?
sustained increases in water temperatures of as little as 1degc, alone or in combination with any of several stresses (e.g., excessive pollution and siltation), can lead to corals ejecting their algae (coral bleaching) and the eventual death of some corals. temper
What would be one result of melting permafrost?
continued warming would increase melting of permafrost in polar, sub-polar, and mountain regions and would make much of this terrain vulnerable to subsidence and landslides which affect infrastructure, water courses, and wetland ecosystems. cha
3degc, if sustained for millennia, would lead to virtually a complete melting of the greenland ice sheet with a resulting sea-level rise of about 7 m. a local warming of 5.5degc, if sustained for 1,000 years, would likely result in a contribution from greenland of about 3 m to sea-level rise. continued warming would increase melting of permafrost in polar, sub-polar, and mountain regions and would make much of this terrain vulnerable to subsidence and landslides which affect infrastructure, water courses, and wetland ecosystems. changes in climate could increase the risk of abrupt and non-linear changes in many ecosystems, which would affect their function, biodiversity, and productivity. the greater the magnitude and rate of the change, the greater the risk of adverse impacts. for example: changes in disturbance regimes and shifts in the location of suitable climatically defined habitats may lead to abrupt breakdown of terrestrial and marine ecosystems with significant changes in composition and function and increased risk of extinctions. sustained increases in water temperatures of as little as 1degc, alone or in combination with any of several stresses (e.g., excessive pollution and siltation), can lead to corals ejecting their algae (coral bleaching) and the eventual death of some corals. temperature increase beyond a threshold, which varies by crop and variety, can affect key development stages of some crops (e.g., spikelet sterility in rice, loss of pollen viability in maize, tubers' development in potatoes) and thus the crop yields. yield losses in these crops can be severe if temperatures exceed critical limits for even short periods.
What carbon-cycle is being used?
we use the c-cycle of nordhaus a linear three-reservoir model
How is each reservoir characterized?
each reservoir is assumed to be homogenous (well-mixed in the short run) and is characterised by a residence time inside the box and corresponding mixing rates with the two other reservoirs (longer timescales
How do the carbon flows react with these three reservoirs?
carbon flows between reservoirs depend on constant transfert coefficients. ghgs emissions (co2 solely) accumulate in the atmosphere and they are slowly removed by biospheric and oceanic sinks
a.3. three-reservoir linear carbon-cycle model a.3. three-reservoir linear carbon-cycle model we use the c-cycle of nordhaus a linear three-reservoir model (atmosphere, biosphere surface ocean and deep ocean). each reservoir is assumed to be homogenous (well-mixed in the short run) and is characterised by a residence time inside the box and corresponding mixing rates with the two other reservoirs (longer timescales). carbon flows between reservoirs depend on constant transfert coefficients. ghgs emissions (co2 solely) accumulate in the atmosphere and they are slowly removed by biospheric and oceanic sinks. 22 22 the dynamics of carbon flows is given by is given by: the dynamics of carbon flows is given by is given by:
Are vulnerable cities big emitters of greenhouse gases?
most of the vulnerable cities are not big emitters of greenhouse gases
What does mitigation refer to?
mitigation refers to an anthropogenic intervention to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases
What does adaptation refer to?
adaptation refers to the ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes), to moderate potential damage, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences
two broad categories of response mechanism are identified by the un framework convention on climate change (unfccc) to deal with climate change, namely, mitigation and adaptation. mitigation refers to an anthropogenic intervention to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases, while adaptation refers to the ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes), to moderate potential damage, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences. even if ghg emissions were to stop immediately, the average temperature would continue to rise for some time as the life of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is more than 100 years.(6) although research on adaptation and mitigation has been rather unconnected to date, it is clear that both responses are equally important and can help reduce the risks of climate change to natural and human systems. for example, mitigation will have global long-term benefits, whereas the benefits of adaptation are on a local to regional scale. however, they will offer immediate benefits compared to mitigation. climate change mitigation has captured both international and national attention. however, adaptation to climate change is equally important because most of the vulnerable cities are not big emitters of greenhouse gases.(7) these cities, some of which belong to the developing world, are highly vulnerable to climate change-related extreme events.(8) climate change not only increases the incidence of extreme events and disasters but also induces gradual changes such as temperature and precipitation changes. this makes resource management and infrastructure planning more challenging and, at the same time, increases the urgency of the need to adapt city level operations to both current climate variability and future climate change.(9) hence, there is a need for an adaptation agenda in the governance system of cities.
What is detailed crop model in integrated modeling?
the main methodology for conducting agricultural impact models has been to run detailed crop models at a selected set of sites and to use the output of these site models as input to an economic model
What are the drawbacks of running detailed crop model at a selected set?
although this approach has provided great insights, future assessments will have to integrate these models to consider interactions and feedbacks, multiple environmental stresses (tropospheric ozone, acid deposition, and nitrogen deposition), transient climate scenarios, and global analysis
Explain the fully integrated model of agricultural system?
a fully integrated model will facilitate study of uncertainty where many 1 00's) climate scenarios should be used. this will allow impact assessment to more fully evaluate the extent to which results are climate scenario dependent
integrated modeling of agricultural system. the main methodology for conducting agricultural impact models has been to run detailed crop models at a selected set of sites and to use the output of these site models as input to an economic model. although this approach has provided great insights, future assessments will have to integrate these models to consider interactions and feedbacks, multiple environmental stresses (tropospheric ozone, acid deposition, and nitrogen deposition), transient climate scenarios, and global analysis. a fully integrated model will facilitate study of uncertainty where many 1 00's) climate scenarios should be used. this will allow impact assessment to more fully evaluate the extent to which results are climate scenario dependent. the present approach, whereby crop modelers run models at specific sites, severely limits the number of sites and scenarios that can be considered feasibly.
What organization are climate normals obtained from?
climate normals for 1921 stations in the united states were obtained from the national oceanic and atmospheric administration (noaa) and for 1432 stations in western canada from environment canada archives
What does MAE stand for?
as mean absolute errors (mae
What do climate variables include?
the climate variables include minimum temperature in january (tmin01), maximum temperature in july (tmax07), mat, map, and msp
the accuracy of climate variables estimated with the described methods and algorithms was assessed against weather station observations. observed monthly normals of the primary climate variables for the reference period (1961-90) were obtained from 3353 weather stations across the entire study area (fig. 1). climate normals for 1921 stations in the united states were obtained from the national oceanic and atmospheric administration (noaa) and for 1432 stations in western canada from environment canada archives. we calculated the amount of variance r2as well as mean absolute errors (mae) for the interpolated baseline climate data (2.5 arc min-resolution prism and anusplin grids), as well as the enhanced climate estimates using the described downscaling algorithms and elevation adjustments of the climatewna software package. the quality of historical climate data generated with the delta approach was evaluated through comparisons between observed and predicted values for three temperature and two precipitation variables for one year from every 10 years starting from 1901 to cover the period between 1901 and 2009. in total, 12 years were evaluated. the climate variables include minimum temperature in january (tmin01), maximum temperature in july (tmax07), mat, map, and msp. the amount of variance in observed values from weather stations explained by climatewnagenerated estimates was used to represent the agreement between the observed and predicted values.
Why are freshwater fish in decline wordlwide?
freshwater fishes are in decline worldwide because of humancaused degradation of aquatic habitats
What is further accelerating the decline of many freshwater fish species?
anthropogenic climate change is further accelerating declines of many freshwater fish species
What has been reported about California's fish?
about 80% of california's native fishes are either extinct, threatened with extinction in the near future, or vulnerable to extinction if present trends continue
freshwater fishes are in decline worldwide because of humancaused degradation of aquatic habitats [1-4]. anthropogenic climate change is further accelerating declines of many freshwater fish species, particularly in regions with arid or mediterranean climates [5-7]. these rapid declines are a major conservation challenge, requiring setting priorities for conservation and for devising strategies to prevent widespread extinctions one factor hindering development of conservation strategies is limited literature on biology and status of most fishes, especially endemic species of little economic value. consequently, there is a need for a rapid and repeatable assessment method that can incorporate expert knowledge to determine relative vulnerability of different species to climate change [2,9]. here we present a methodology that allows systematic evaluation of climate change impacts on freshwater fishes, using the complete california fish fauna as an example. our methodology was developed for california because of our familiarity with the fish fauna, which is reasonably well documented, and because native fishes are known to be in decline [6,10,11]. most (63%) of the 129 native species are endemic to the state, while an additional 19% are shared with just one neighboring state [6,10], reflecting that zoogeographic and political boundaries largely coincide in california. california has also been invaded successfully by at least 50 alien species of fish moyle et al. reported that about 80% of california's native fishes are either extinct, threatened with extinction in the near future, or vulnerable to extinction if present trends continue. although about one fish per year has been listed under state and federal endangered species acts for the past 20 years, there are a number of other fishes that likely merit listing climate change is clearly exacerbating conditions for native fish species, leading to further declines in california [6,11]. although quin~ones and moyle and similar reviews (e.g., provide background and discussion on how various climate change scenarios will likely
What are the three types of substitution allowed by the economy-wide nested CES production function?
the production function is calibrated so as to allow for three types of substitution: (1) capital-labor substitution, (2) interfuel substitution between electric and nonelectric energy, 4 4 and (3) substitution between capital-labor and energy
What are the inputs of the economy-wide nested CES production function?
the inputs to this production function are expressed as new capital, new labor, new electric and new nonelectric energy, respectively knrg,pp lnrg,pp enrg,pp and nnrg,pp
What is a possible result of the parameters being adjusted for the economy-wide nested CES production function?
the parameters are also adusted so as to allow for autonomous improvements in the productivity of labor and of energy
in turn, new output is based on an economy-wide nested ces (constant elasticity of substitution) production function. the inputs to this production function are expressed as new capital, new labor, new electric and new nonelectric energy, respectively knrg,pp lnrg,pp enrg,pp and nnrg,pp these inputs are governed by transition equations similar to those that have just been written for gross output. the production function is calibrated so as to allow for three types of substitution: (1) capital-labor substitution, (2) interfuel substitution between electric and nonelectric energy, 4 4 and (3) substitution between capital-labor and energy. the parameters are also adusted so as to allow for autonomous improvements in the productivity of labor and of energy. new output is written as the following function of the new inputs:
Based on Maturana's biology of cognition, what shapes conversation?
each conversation is shaped interactively by a particular flow of emotion
What determines what we do?
it is emotions not resources that determine what we do
underpinning several of these attributes is a systems practice skill that david russell and i have described as the choreography of the emotions 33 in this work we draw on maturana's biology of cognition and claims that each conversation is shaped interactively by a particular flow of emotion. our contention is that with practice we are capable of being aware of exactly which emotion is being enacted at any one moment and thus are free to maintain or change the nature of the conversa tion, and of the relationship in which the conversation is embedded, by modifying the emotion [33 p. 134]. 28 an analogy is donella meadows dancing with systems as an exemplar of dancing with the emotioning. 29 how one dances becomes part of the flow - as we emotion our emotions change. evidence of the underlying emotional flow of donella's own practice can be gleaned from reading 3 in chapter 4 having accepted this understanding it became a guiding influence for our research and consulting activities for over 15 years. the notions of chorographer (one practised in the experiencing of territory, or situations) and choreographer (one practised in the design of a dance arrangement) become a way of describing our concerns. mapping the initial relationships locates which emotions are getting which results and offers reflections on how a particular workplace, social, and/or personal culture (pattern of relationships embedded over time) has come about. designing conversations and actions, itself an ongoing process, is thus an essential role for the systems practitioner. this role, as creative as it is responsible, is at its heart the strategic management of emotions where an emotion is defined as that flow of desire predisposing one towards a particular action. the emotion determines the nature of the action: it is emotions not resources that determine what we do!
What is the meaning of the term 'complex climate models'?
by the term 'complex climate models', we are referring to atmosphere/ocean global circulation models. these complex computer codes aim to mimic laboratories in other scientific disciplines; scientists use them to carry out experiments which are not possible in the real world. the atmospheric components have been developed as tools for weather forecasting cullen 1993 ). this application has benefited model development significantly by providing a cycle of model improvements and forecast system confirmation oreskes et al 1994 
Why are additional time-scale processes being added (atmospheric chemistry, the carbon cycle, stratospheric dynamics, ice dynamics?
such confirmation only applies to processes with 'short' time scales on which we have many forecasts with corresponding (out-of-sample) observations. there are longer time-scale processes present, particularly in the ocean component, and additional long time-scale processes are being added (atmospheric chemistry, the carbon cycle, stratospheric dynamics, ice dynamics, etc.) as they develop into earth system models (esms). for these processes, and therefore for climate forecasting, there is no possibility of a true cycle of improvement and confirmation, the problem is always one of extrapolation and the life cycle of a model is significantly less than the lead time of interest smith 2002 
Why do the statements about the future climate refer to a state never experienced before in the system?
statements about future climate relate to a never before experienced state of the system; thus, it is impossible to either calibrate the model for the forecast regime of interest or confirm the usefulness of the forecasting process. development and improvement of long time-scale processes are therefore reliant solely on tests of internal consistency and physical understanding of the processes involved, guided by information on past climatic states deduced from proxy data. such data are inapplicable for calibration or confirmation as they are in-sample, having guided the development process. in any case, it would have only a weak role in terms of confirming the model as it applies to the system under different conditions. failure to reproduce such observations usefully highlights model inadequacies and is valuable for model improvement, but success provides only a limited kind of confidence
by the term 'complex climate models', we are referring to atmosphere/ocean global circulation models. these complex computer codes aim to mimic laboratories in other scientific disciplines; scientists use them to carry out experiments which are not possible in the real world. the atmospheric components have been developed as tools for weather forecasting cullen 1993 ). this application has benefited model development significantly by providing a cycle of model improvements and forecast system confirmation oreskes et al 1994 ). such confirmation only applies to processes with 'short' time scales on which we have many forecasts with corresponding (out-of-sample) observations. there are longer time-scale processes present, particularly in the ocean component, and additional long time-scale processes are being added (atmospheric chemistry, the carbon cycle, stratospheric dynamics, ice dynamics, etc.) as they develop into earth system models (esms). for these processes, and therefore for climate forecasting, there is no possibility of a true cycle of improvement and confirmation, the problem is always one of extrapolation and the life cycle of a model is significantly less than the lead time of interest smith 2002 ). statements about future climate relate to a never before experienced state of the system; thus, it is impossible to either calibrate the model for the forecast regime of interest or confirm the usefulness of the forecasting process. development and improvement of long time-scale processes are therefore reliant solely on tests of internal consistency and physical understanding of the processes involved, guided by information on past climatic states deduced from proxy data. such data are inapplicable for calibration or confirmation as they are in-sample, having guided the development process. in any case, it would have only a weak role in terms of confirming the model as it applies to the system under different conditions. failure to reproduce such observations usefully highlights model inadequacies and is valuable for model improvement, but success provides only a limited kind of confidence.
What did Denton et al. (2005) show?
denton et al. (2005) also show that around greenland the younger dryas glacier advance is sufficiently limited that it can only be conpaleo
What was the basis of the method used by Atkinson et al. (1987)?
atkinson et al. (1987), using a method based on the current climate tolerances of hundreds of species of carinvorous beetles and the distribution of fossil remains of those species
What did Atkinson et al. (1987) conclude about summer and winter temperature changes?
atkinson et al. (1987), using a method based on the current climate tolerances of hundreds of species of carinvorous beetles and the distribution of fossil remains of those species, concluded that over the british isles the rapid warming of the bolling-allerod and the rapid changes of the younger dryas involved only modest summer temperature changes but enormous changes in winter temperature
atkinson et al. (1987), using a method based on the current climate tolerances of hundreds of species of carinvorous beetles and the distribution of fossil remains of those species, concluded that over the british isles the rapid warming of the bolling-allerod and the rapid changes of the younger dryas involved only modest summer temperature changes but enormous changes in winter temperature. the implied changes in seasonality were enough to convert the british isles from a climate after the lgm (and after deglaciation of the isles) similar to that of current day northeastern russia to one during the bolling that was similar to that of today, then back again to one of great seasonality during the younger dryas and then, finally, back to a modern day climate. each transition was accomplished in decades. denton et al. (2005) also show that around greenland the younger dryas glacier advance is sufficiently limited that it can only be conpaleo.circ february 28, 2005
Health Effect Describe the known effects of weather heat stress?
health outcome known effects of weather heat stress * deaths from cardio-respiratory disease increase with high and low temperatures * heat-related illness and death due to heat waves air pollution-related mortality and morbidity * weather affects air pollutant concentrations * weather affects distribution, seasonality and production of aeroallergens health impacts of weather disasters
Describe the direct effects of wind storms
floods, landslides and windstorms cause direct effects (deaths and injuries) and indirect effects (infectious disease, loss of food supplies, long-term psychological morbidity) mosquito-borne diseases, tick-borne diseases (e.g. malaria, dengue) * higher temperatures reduce the development time of pathogens in vectors and increase potential transmission to humans * vector species require specifi c climatic conditions (temperature, humidity) to be suffi ciently abundant to maintain transmission water-/ food-borne diseases
Describe bacterial pathogens
survival of important bacterial pathogens is related to temperature * extreme rainfall can affect the transport of disease organisms into the water supply. outbreaks of water-borne disease have been associated with contamination caused by heavy rainfall and fl ooding, associated with inadequate sanitation * increases in drought conditions may affect water availability and water quality (chemical and microbiological load) due to extreme low fl ows
health outcome known effects of weather heat stress * deaths from cardio-respiratory disease increase with high and low temperatures * heat-related illness and death due to heat waves air pollution-related mortality and morbidity * weather affects air pollutant concentrations * weather affects distribution, seasonality and production of aeroallergens health impacts of weather disasters * floods, landslides and windstorms cause direct effects (deaths and injuries) and indirect effects (infectious disease, loss of food supplies, long-term psychological morbidity) mosquito-borne diseases, tick-borne diseases (e.g. malaria, dengue) * higher temperatures reduce the development time of pathogens in vectors and increase potential transmission to humans * vector species require specifi c climatic conditions (temperature, humidity) to be suffi ciently abundant to maintain transmission water-/ food-borne diseases * survival of important bacterial pathogens is related to temperature * extreme rainfall can affect the transport of disease organisms into the water supply. outbreaks of water-borne disease have been associated with contamination caused by heavy rainfall and fl ooding, associated with inadequate sanitation * increases in drought conditions may affect water availability and water quality (chemical and microbiological load) due to extreme low fl ows
the bedrock of many prominent perspectives and theories in the environmental social sciences could be?
a materialist foundation has become the bedrock of many prominent perspectives and theories in the environmental social sciences: industrial ecology/metabolism, ecological modernization, the treadmill of production, the "second contradiction" of capitalism, and the metabolic rift
Ecological modernization assumes what?
ecological modernization assumes that through the ongoing modernization/rationalization of productive systems and public and private institutions, society will progress to a "green" state - i.e., environmental regulation and environmentally benign industries will produce a sustainable future, as market economies continue to develop
What does O'Connor states for?
o'connor, the principal proponent of the second contradiction of capitalism, agrees that modern production systems are growth dependent. at the same time, o'connor notes that the expansion of capitalism depletes natural resources, which will then increase the production costs of capital. in time, he contends, this will create a crisis for capitalism
a materialist foundation has become the bedrock of many prominent perspectives and theories in the environmental social sciences: industrial ecology/metabolism, ecological modernization, the treadmill of production, the "second contradiction" of capitalism, and the metabolic rift.17industrialmetabolismstudiesthethroughputofrawmaterialsand energy sources in productive systems, arguing that societies must actively regulate this process and develop efficient machinery to diminish the rate of material consumption. ecological modernization assumes that through the ongoing modernization/rationalization of productive systems and public and private institutions, society will progress to a "green" state - i.e., environmental regulation and environmentally benign industries will produce a sustainable future, as market economies continue to develop. the treadmill of production theory runs counter to ecological modernization. schnaiberg, the original developer of the treadmill of production theory, argues that modern societies, particularly market dominated ones, are driven by a relentless commitment to growth, despite its social and ecological costs. in pursuit of profit, producers constantly attempt to expand production. with the support of government, industrial production is allowed to expand, increasing the demands placed on nature and creating ever-greater amounts of waste. o'connor, the principal proponent of the second contradiction of capitalism, agrees that modern production systems are growth dependent. at the same time, o'connor notes that the expansion of capitalism depletes natural resources, which will then increase the production costs of capital. in time, he contends, this will create a crisis for capitalism. all of the previously mentioned theories in environmental sociology focus on the intersection of the economy and nature. each of them
What does the earth's climate offer?
the earth's climate provides an outstanding example of a high-dimensional forced and dissipative complex system
What are the components of a climate system?
the climate system and of their coupling mechanisms peixoto and oort 1992
What do climate theories mean?
it is extremely challenging to construct satisfactory theories of climate dynamics and it is virtually impossible to develop numerical models able to describe accurately climatic processes over all scales
the earth's climate provides an outstanding example of a high-dimensional forced and dissipative complex system. the dynamics of such system is chaotic, so that there is only a limited time-horizon for skillful prediction, and is non-trivial on a vast range of spatial and temporal scales, as a result of the different physical and chemical properties of the various components of the climate system and of their coupling mechanisms peixoto and oort 1992). thus, it is extremely challenging to construct satisfactory theories of climate dynamics and it is virtually impossible to develop numerical models able to describe accurately climatic processes over all scales. typically, different classes of models and different phenomenological theories have been and are still being developed by
Why do molecular approaches have notable limitations?
molecular approaches do, however, have notable limitations: most importantly, they may not provide estimates of the heritable variation in polygenic trait/s that will likely be of most interest in predicting adaptive responses to climate change (but see edwards 2013
What will molecular approaches preclude?
molecular approaches may preclude the direct integration of the data they generate with predictive models of evolutionary change and evolutionary rescue
What do the approaches mentioned represent?
these approaches nonetheless represent an important pathway for examining the evolutionary potential of marine organisms, particularly when combined with experimental approaches (see below), or when other approaches are impractical
molecular approaches do, however, have notable limitations: most importantly, they may not provide estimates of the heritable variation in polygenic trait/s that will likely be of most interest in predicting adaptive responses to climate change (but see edwards 2013). as such, molecular approaches may preclude the direct integration of the data they generate with predictive models of evolutionary change and evolutionary rescue. there have been previous assessments of the efficacy of molecular approaches for predicting evolutionary change that we will not repeat here (e.g. hendry et al. 2011; travisano shaw 2013), but these approaches nonetheless represent an important pathway for examining the evolutionary potential of marine organisms, particularly when combined with experimental approaches (see below), or when other approaches are impractical.
What is the model based off of?
the model is based on a globally averaged heat capacity and neglects the flux of heat into the deep ocean
What is the filtering methodology useful for?
the filtering methodology should prove useful for investigating variations in global-mean temperature due to phenomena other than enso, variations in the high-latitude nh winter circulation, and volcanic eruptions (e.g., solar variability, variations in the oceanic thermohaline circulation, the effects of tropospheric aerosols, etc
Are the estimates 100% accurate?
these estimates are only approximate in the sense that if they are doubled or halved, the fit between the observations and the model is degraded only slightly
k (w m2 2)2 1, the effective heat capacity was found to be equivalent to the atmosphere plus a 2-m-deep ocean in the case of enso, and a 9-m-deep ocean in the case of volcanic eruptions. these estimates are only approximate in the sense that if they are doubled or halved, the fit between the observations and the model is degraded only slightly. furthermore, the estimates do not imply that the signals of enso and volcanic eruptions are limited everywhere to the top 2 and 9 m of ocean, respectively; that is, the model is based on a globally averaged heat capacity and neglects the flux of heat into the deep ocean. in principle, the thermodynamic model can be used in a diagnostic manner to derive information about both the effective heat capacity and the climate sensitivity, b but we have not attempted to do that here because c and b are both dependent on the time scale of the forcing. the filtering methodology should prove useful for investigating variations in global-mean temperature due to phenomena other than enso, variations in the high-latitude nh winter circulation, and volcanic eruptions (e.g., solar variability, variations in the oceanic thermohaline circulation, the effects of tropospheric aerosols, etc.). it could also be extended to include known sources of variability other than those considered here. for example, the pervasive negative correlations between surface temperature and precipitation over low-latitude regions, where local control of temperature via the evaporation from the underlying surface (nicholls et al. 1996; trenberth and shea 2005) might be exploited to filter out additional variance of the temperature time series.
How many funcitional groups were there ?
our study used data with finer resolution, only one functional group (trees), and assessed only 12 species; thus, our results cannot be directly compared. hanspach et al
What happened in 2010?
2010) found decreasing model quality for species related to human activity; however, this limitation is not apparent in our models as indicated by high auc for the three alien species (table 1
What does the threat level depend on?
examining the variability among gcms, we can conclude that threat level strongly depends on which gcm is used, similar to goberville et al
we found a different type of relationship between model auc and number of grid cells occupied by species than hanspach, k eur uhn, pompe, and klotz (2010), who found decreasing trends for intermediate proportions of occupied area. our study used data with finer resolution, only one functional group (trees), and assessed only 12 species; thus, our results cannot be directly compared. hanspach et al. (2010) found decreasing model quality for species related to human activity; however, this limitation is not apparent in our models as indicated by high auc for the three alien species (table 1). regarding future predicted ranges, as our models do not take into account migration rate, our conclusions refer to the 2nd " change in climatically suitable area " and 5th " change in average climatic suitability in already occupied cells " measures of risk, according to ohlem eur uller et al. (2006). examining the variability among gcms, we can conclude that threat level strongly depends on which gcm is used, similar to goberville et al. (2015). in our study, hadgem2-es predicted the highest threat level for 9 of 12 species studied in
What are the bases for the climate changes presented?
the estimates of changes in climate variables presented below are obtained from the 400-member ensemble of climate change simulations with different values of the uncertain input parameters
What are the simulation steps and when do they occur?
because of the large inertia of the ocean and carbon reservoirs, each simulation starts in 1861 and is conducted in two stages: a simulation with historical forcings and a future climate projection. during the first stage, from 1861 to 1990, the model is forced by the observed changes in ghg concentrations (hansen et al. 2002), tropospheric and stratospheric ozone (wang and jacob 1998), the solar constant (lean 2000), sulfate aerosols (smith et al. 2004), and volcanic aerosols (sato et al. 1993
What factors are used in each simulation?
for this stage, different sets of values of the climate sensitivity, the rates of oceanic heat and carbon uptakes, total aerosol forcing, the strength of co2 fertilization, and changes in precipitation frequency are used in each simulation
the estimates of changes in climate variables presented below are obtained from the 400-member ensemble of climate change simulations with different values of the uncertain input parameters. because of the large inertia of the ocean and carbon reservoirs, each simulation starts in 1861 and is conducted in two stages: a simulation with historical forcings and a future climate projection. during the first stage, from 1861 to 1990, the model is forced by the observed changes in ghg concentrations (hansen et al. 2002), tropospheric and stratospheric ozone (wang and jacob 1998), the solar constant (lean 2000), sulfate aerosols (smith et al. 2004), and volcanic aerosols (sato et al. 1993). for this stage, different sets of values of the climate sensitivity, the rates of oceanic heat and carbon uptakes, total aerosol forcing, the strength of co2 fertilization, and changes in precipitation frequency are used in each simulation.
What is unclear about Rossby waves?
while we have shown that stationary rossby waves play an important role in subseasonal variability, and at times are major players in the development of short-term climate extremes, it is as yet unclear to what extent they are predictable at monthly time scales
What role in forcing the waves suggests predictability may be limited?
the important role of vorticity transients in forcing the waves would suggest that the predictability may be limited
What do current GCMs appear to be deficient in?
current gcms appear to be deficient in reproducing aspects of the summer jet climatology that likely limit their ability to accurately simulate and predict the development of such rossby waves
while we have shown that stationary rossby waves play an important role in subseasonal variability, and at times are major players in the development of short-term climate extremes, it is as yet unclear to what extent they are predictable at monthly time scales. the important role of vorticity transients in forcing the waves would suggest that the predictability may be limited, though it is not clear the extent to which the slow changes in the jet and associated changes in the wave guides (that could be linked to sst changes) may play a role especially for some of the most extreme events such as the 2003 european or the 2010 russian heat waves, or periods (e.g., during the 1993 floods) when they seem to contribute to seasonal mean anomalies. in any event, current gcms appear to be deficient in reproducing aspects of the summer jet climatology that likely limit their ability to accurately simulate and predict the development of such rossby waves. in addition to improving the models, it is possible that ensemble initialization schemes that take advantage of the identified preferred forcing patterns (e.g., fig. 12) to better span the forecast uncertainty, could produce greater skill than is achieved in current extended range forecasts.
According to the professors,what has goal-setting gone wild contributed to?
goal-setting gone wild, say the professors, contributed both to enron and the present sub-prime disasters
reading 7 (continued) been engineered to deliver meta-goals such as four-hour waiting times in a&e and halving mrsa - which it does, sort of - but not individual care, which is what people actually experience. consequently, even when targets are met, citizens detect no improvement. hence the desperate and depressing ministerial calls for, in effect, new targets to make nhs staff show compassion and teachers teach interesting lessons. hodgkin is right: the system is back to front. instead of force-fitting services to arbitrary targets (how comforting is hitting the mrsa target to the 50% who will still get it?), the place to start is determining what people want and then redesigning the work to meet it. local councils, police units and housing associations that have had the courage to ignore official guidance and adopt such a course routinely produce results that make a mockery of official targets - benefits calculated and paid in a week rather than two months, planning decisions delivered in 28 days, all housing repairs done when people want them. counterintuitively, improving services in this way makes them cheaper, since it removes many centrally imposed activities that people don't want. sadly, however, the potential ben efits are rarely reaped in full because of the continuing need to tick bureau cratic boxes; and in the current climate of fear, chief executives are loath to boast of success built on a philosophy running directly counter to whitehall orthodoxy. the current target-, computerand inspection-dominated regime for pub lic services is inflexible, wasteful and harmful. but don't take my word for it: in the current issue of academy of management perspectives, a heavy weight us journal, four professors charge that the benefits of goal-setting (i.e. targets) are greatly over-sold and the side-effects equally underesti mated. goal-setting gone wild, say the professors, contributed both to enron and the present sub-prime disasters. instead of being dispensed over the counter, targets should be treated "as a prescription-strength medication that requires careful dosing, consideration of harmful side effects, and close supervision". they even propose a health warning: "goals may cause systematic prob lems in organisations due to narrowed focus, increased risk-taking, unethical behaviour, inhibited learning, decreased co-operation, and decreased intrinsic motivation." as a glance at stafford hospital would tell them, that's not the half of it.
What the climate change required in general?
in general, climate change will require that most development expenditures that are climate sensitive--such as, inter alia investments in almost all types of infrastructure (transportation, telecom, utilities, etc.), housing programs, agriculture development policies, policies regarding tourism, etc.--be upgraded and designed to withstand higher tolerances/peak loads or that the development strategy shifts to sectors that are less climate sensitive
What development strategy is necessary to review the countries?
their policies and their projects in light of the emerging risk of climate change. such a review should be conducted for all investment projects that take place within the country, be they funded by corporations, communities, households, or individuals--not only for investment programs and projects funded by the government
Where are the population is exposed more to the climate change damages?
the population exposed to climate change damages is likely to be larger in developing countries, where damages are likely to be more important and where ability to pay is lower. hence the need for some transfer/international financing mechanism from developed to developing countries. in some cases, however, the benefits of adaptation are regional or even global, and should be financed accordingly
in general, climate change will require that most development expenditures that are climate sensitive--such as, inter alia investments in almost all types of infrastructure (transportation, telecom, utilities, etc.), housing programs, agriculture development policies, policies regarding tourism, etc.--be upgraded and designed to withstand higher tolerances/peak loads or that the development strategy shifts to sectors that are less climate sensitive. at a minimum, it is therefore necessary that countries review their development strategies, their policies and their projects in light of the emerging risk of climate change. such a review should be conducted for all investment projects that take place within the country, be they funded by corporations, communities, households, or individuals--not only for investment programs and projects funded by the government. similarly, the design of long-lasting institutional arrangements may have to be revised to take climate change into account. for example, when water runoffs are expected to diminish, it is all the more important for long-term water rights arrangements to include strong provisions for resolving tensions. to the extent that the benefits of adaptation are local, adaptation should be financed locally whether in developed or in developing countries. however, the population exposed to climate change damages is likely to be larger in developing countries, where damages are likely to be more important and where ability to pay is lower. hence the need for some transfer/international financing mechanism from developed to developing countries. in some cases, however, the benefits of adaptation are regional or even global, and should be financed accordingly. adaptation is already a key issue in the upcoming discussions on the second commitment period and the post-kyoto international climate regime, in part because most parties to the unfccc have comparatively low emissions, and adaptation, much more than mitigation, is the critical challenge they face in developing policies to address climate change.
What does Fig. 5 show?
this final model is graphically displayed in fig. 5 girls in the sixth grade reported higher levels of depressive symptoms and lower levels of self-esteem than boys, while boys reported higher levels of problem behavior than girls
What did the effect sizes in each model suggest?
the effect sizes in each model suggested medium to large effect sizes, with the slope of peer support, teacher support, and clarity and consistency in school rules on the slope of depressive symptoms suggesting a larger effect size than the other paths in the model (with the exception of the slope of teacher support and the slope of problem behavior
What was the dimension inputed for each model?
in these models, each dimension of school climate was viewed as the outcome variable and the three indicators of wellbeing (i.e., behavior problems, general self-esteem, and depressive symptoms) were entered as predictors
rmsea .04, ci .03-.05, cfi .98). ses status did not significantly predict either the initial status or slope of clarity and consistency in school rules. in addition, minority status and gender were significantly associated with the intercept but not with the slope of clarity and consistency in school rules. gender also predicted each of the outcome variables (i.e., behavior problems, depressive symptoms, and self-esteem). the non-significant paths were next set to zero and the model was re-estimated. there was no significant degradement of the final model vd 2(7) 8.58, p .05). this final model is graphically displayed in fig. 5 girls in the sixth grade reported higher levels of depressive symptoms and lower levels of self-esteem than boys, while boys reported higher levels of problem behavior than girls. the intercept of clarity and consistency in school rules was significant associated with the intercept of self-esteem and depressive symptoms and with the intercept and slope of problem behavior. our findings with regards to the slope of clarity and consistency in school rules indicated that for students who reported an increase in perceptions of clarity and consistency in school rules, there was a corresponding decrease in depressive symptoms and behavior problems over time. the association between the intercept and/or slope of clarity and consistency in school rules and the intercept and/or slope of self-esteem, depressive symptoms, or behavior problems indicated medium to large effect sizes (see fig. 5 ). in summary, students' perceptions of teacher and peer support, student autonomy, and clarity and consistency in school rules in sixth grade (initial status) was significantly associated with students' reported levels of depressive symptoms, general self-esteem, and behavior problems in the sixth grade. in addition, students who perceived their school as having increasingly more teacher and peer support, a greater degree of student autonomy, and more clarity and consistency in school over time also reported declines over time in depressive symptoms and behavior problems. moreover, reports of increasingly positive peer support and a greater degree of student autonomy were significantly related to increases over time in student reports of general self-esteem. the effect sizes in each model suggested medium to large effect sizes, with the slope of peer support, teacher support, and clarity and consistency in school rules on the slope of depressive symptoms suggesting a larger effect size than the other paths in the model (with the exception of the slope of teacher support and the slope of problem behavior). testing for direction of effects to assess whether the effects of each dimension of school climate on psychological and behavioral adjustment were bi-directional rather than simply unidirectional, a series of alternative models for each of the four dimensions of school climate were tested. in these models, each dimension of school climate was viewed as the outcome variable and the three indicators of wellbeing (i.e., behavior problems, general self-esteem, and depressive symptoms) were entered as predictors. student gender, socioeconomic, and minority status were included in the model as defined earlier. we could thus make qualitative comparisons of model effects and gain some degree of insight as to the direction of effects from the different dimensions of school climate to wellbeing.
Which  scenes Man-induced climate promotes?
the prospect of human-induced climate change encourages drastic neomalthusian scenarios
The causal chains suggested to literature with reliable evidence?
the causal chains suggested in the literature have so far rarely been substantiated with reliable evidence
Scientists to respond to this challenge?
social scientists are now beginning to respond to this challenge
the prospect of human-induced climate change encourages drastic neomalthusian scenarios. a number of claims about the conflict-inducing effects of climate change have surfaced in the public debate in recent years. climate change has so many potential consequences for the physical environment that we could expect a large number of possible paths to conflict. however, the causal chains suggested in the literature have so far rarely been substantiated with reliable evidence. given the combined uncertainties of climate and conflict research, the gaps in our knowledge about the consequences of climate change for conflict and security appear daunting. social scientists are now beginning to respond to this challenge. we present some of the problems and opportunities in this line of research, summarize the contributions in this special issue, and discuss how the security concerns of climate change can be investigated more systematically.
What do the results of Taylor and Carrol suggest?
their results suggest that a large pine age cohort originated around 1880-1920, in an amount consistent with a 60-year fire-cycle
Why the burn rate may have been higher than would be predicted?
the burn rate may have been higher than would be predicted by a 60-year fire-cycle in this period due to fires resulting from mining exploration, land clearing, and railway activity (e.g., leavitt 1915
What was the result of fire management?
with the of fire management, a large proportion of the stands which regenerated after these fires have matured and entered the susceptible age-class for mountain pine beetle
combining disturbance data with provincial scale forest inventory data in a simple age-class projection model, taylor and carroll (2004) also reconstructed the area of pine by age-class in british columbia during 1911-1991. their results suggest that a large pine age cohort originated around 1880-1920, in an amount consistent with a 60-year fire-cycle. the burn rate may have been higher than would be predicted by a 60-year fire-cycle in this period due to fires resulting from mining exploration, land clearing, and railway activity (e.g., leavitt 1915). with the of fire management, a large proportion of the stands which regenerated after these fires have matured and entered the susceptible age-class for mountain pine beetle. the result is a threefold increase in the area of pine susceptible to mountain pine beetle during the 20th century (fig. 11). plotting the annual mountain pine beetle outbreak area alongside the area of susceptible pine by year suggests that the area increase of mountain pine beetle outbreaks since the 1970s are related to an increasing amount of susceptible pine (fig. 12), although the outbreak area was apparently not limited by host availability on a provincial scale. according to clutter et al. (1983), if the rate of harvest in a fully-regulated forest is changed to a new level there are three possible outcomes: the forest structure will reach a new steady state, the forest will be totally depleted, or the forest will become unmanaged (the amount of timber lost to natural mortality exceeding harvesting). the same possible outcomes can be expected as a result of changing disturbance rates in forests that were historically regulated by natural disturbance. currently, forest depletions by mountain pine beetle in british columbia are greatly exceeding depletions by harvesting, making management of forest age structure through harvest regulation challenging.
In accordance with whom's theorizing and with results from previous research  perceptions of a task-involving motivational climate was a positive predictor of global self-esteem.?
in accordance with nicholls' (1989) theorizing and with results from previous research (duda kim, 1997), perceptions of a task-involving motivational climate was a positive predictor of global self-esteem
What will be the result with the perspective of Fox?
this result is also consonant with the perspective of fox (1997), who argued that sources of competence judgments in a task-involving environment (i.e., the experience of personal mastery and aspects of the performance process per se are emphasized, rather than the outcomes associated with participation) can provide an important contribution to positive self-regard
Whose perceived ability was the strongest positive predictor of self-esteem.?
in line with the work of harter (1999) as well as covington's (1992) selfworth theory, perceived ability was the strongest positive predictor of self-esteem
in accordance with nicholls' (1989) theorizing and with results from previous research (duda kim, 1997), perceptions of a task-involving motivational climate was a positive predictor of global self-esteem. this result is also consonant with the perspective of fox (1997), who argued that sources of competence judgments in a task-involving environment (i.e., the experience of personal mastery and aspects of the performance process per se are emphasized, rather than the outcomes associated with participation) can provide an important contribution to positive self-regard. in line with the work of harter (1999) as well as covington's (1992) selfworth theory, perceived ability was the strongest positive predictor of self-esteem. although we did not assess the reported importance of the sporting activity to the athletes sampled in this research, the present finding seem to indicate that perceiving themselves as good at their sport is central to athletes' ratings of their general selfworth. based on recommendations by horn and harris (1996), one way coaches could increase adolescents' perceptions of competence is by encouraging athletes to develop internalized performance standards. this can be done by involving athletes in self-monitoring of their exerted effort and self-evaluation of their performance. providing athletes with more autonomy in their sport engagement might also lead to enhanced perceived competence (deci ryan, 1995).
what is the scheme used to establish model system for climate change?
the relationship between species' traits and phenology in a well-established model system for climate change, the u.k. butterfly monitoring scheme (ukbms
how the first appearance of the species looks?
species with narrower larval diet breadth and more advanced overwintering stages have experienced relatively greater advances in their date of first appearance
what does the results demonstrate?
our results demonstrate that species' traits can be important predictors of responses to climate change, and they suggest that further investigation of the mechanisms by which these traits influence phenology may aid in understanding species' responses to current and future climate change
how do species' traits help identify which species will respond most strongly to future climate change? we examine the relationship between species' traits and phenology in a well-established model system for climate change, the u.k. butterfly monitoring scheme (ukbms). most resident u.k. butterfly species have significantly advanced their dates of first appearance during the past 30 years. we show that species with narrower larval diet breadth and more advanced overwintering stages have experienced relatively greater advances in their date of first appearance. in addition, species with smaller range sizes have experienced greater phenological advancement. our results demonstrate that species' traits can be important predictors of responses to climate change, and they suggest that further investigation of the mechanisms by which these traits influence phenology may aid in understanding species' responses to current and future climate change.
The preferred management instruments with climate change will depend on what three factors?
the preferred management instruments with climate change will depend on the nature of the problem posed by climate change, the magnitude of the change, and the degree of uncertainty
In a risk assessment-based approach to adaptation, what helps to determine the preferred instrument(s)?
in a risk assessment-based approach to adaptation, the likelihood of a given shock and its expected consequence or effect together helps to determine the preferred instrument(s
What does the risk trade-off curve R2 show?
the risk trade-off curve r2 shows what might arise with climate change when the consequences of an event increase even if the probability of the event remains unchanged, or when the probability of an event increases but its consequence does not
the preferred management instruments with climate change will depend on the nature of the problem posed by climate change, the magnitude of the change, and the degree of uncertainty. in a risk assessment-based approach to adaptation, the likelihood of a given shock and its expected consequence or effect together helps to determine the preferred instrument(s). this is illustrated in figure 1 with a probability-consequence risk trade-off in two states of the world. in a state of the 6 6 world without climate change, given by risk trade-off curve r1, low probability events but with a high consequence or negative impact may be viewed as equivalent to high probability events with a low consequence. the risk trade-off curve r2 shows what might arise with climate change when the consequences of an event increase even if the probability of the event remains unchanged, or when the probability of an event increases but its consequence does not. every point along a curve generates an equivalent level of risk, but all points on r2 represent a higher level of risk than r1.
The Seashore site plan view and different areas in the square 3. 3.
the seashore site plan view and different areas in the square 3. 3
The Seashore site plan view and different areas in the square 3. 3.
the seashore site plan view and different areas in the square 3. 3
The Seashore site plan view and different areas in the square 3. 3.
the seashore site plan view and different areas in the square 3. 3
fig. 2: the seashore site plan view and different areas in the square 3. 3. data analysis extensive statistical treatment of the data collected was carried out. a brief discussion is initially presented focusing on the characteristics of the population using these spaces. since collecting personal data on every people present was not feasible, the people that participated in the surveys, i.e. interviewed, were used as a representative sample to provide an understanding of the overall population. use of space is initially examined in relation to the different groups of people found in the areas, on an annual, as well as seasonal basis. the social aspect is also investigated, concentrating on population characteristics and the reasons bringing people to the space. the microclimatic parameters recorded in the space are also presented along with the meteorological data used for investigating correlations with the use of space. finally, the diurnal pattern of use of space is investigated for the different sites, focusing on the relationship with the local meteorological conditions.
Where did the study take place?
materials and methods study area the study was undertaken in mazvihwa smallholder farming area (murowa ward) in zvishavane district in the midlands province. the ward has a total population of 4,548
What is the rainfall in Murowa Ward?
murowa ward lies in natural farming region 4 that receives an average annual rainfall ranging from 400 to 600 mm distributed in a unimodal pattern between november and april
What are natural farming regions?
natural farming regions are a classification of the agricultural potential of the country, from natural region 1 (> 1000 mm per annum) which represents high altitude wet areas to natural farming region v which receives low and erratic rainfall averaging 550 mm per annum (vincent and thomas, 1960 in mugabe et al, 2007). the changing weather patterns are already creating complex problems because in some years the area is simultaneously affected by drought and excessive rainfall that affect smallholder agricultural productivity
materials and methods study area the study was undertaken in mazvihwa smallholder farming area (murowa ward) in zvishavane district in the midlands province. the ward has a total population of 4,548. murowa ward lies in natural farming region 4 that receives an average annual rainfall ranging from 400 to 600 mm distributed in a unimodal pattern between november and april. natural farming regions are a classification of the agricultural potential of the country, from natural region 1 (> 1000 mm per annum) which represents high altitude wet areas to natural farming region v which receives low and erratic rainfall averaging 550 mm per annum (vincent and thomas, 1960 in mugabe et al, 2007). the changing weather patterns are already creating complex problems because in some years the area is simultaneously affected by drought and excessive rainfall that affect smallholder agricultural productivity.
In which areas may radar remote sensing be used?
in areas with frequent cloud cover, radar remote sensing, which penetrates clouds, can be used
Which South American country is one of the very few that routinely uses remote sensing imagery to monitor forests?
brazil is one of the very few countries that routinely uses remote sensing imagery to monitor their forests, but they are the exception rather than the rule
Which two systems may be combined to do cost-effective monitoring of deforestation and associated carbon-stock changes?
combined fi eld and remote sensing methods allow cost-effective monitoring of deforestation and associated carbon-stock changes and can help meet other forest-monitoring objectives
satellite-based remote-sensing imagery can be used for mapping deforestation activity by interpretation of images from different acquisition dates. appropriate remote-sensing images with high spatial resolution are available on an operational basis since the 1990s, e.g. from landsat and spot satellite-borne sensors. in areas with frequent cloud cover, regular mapping at defi ned time-intervals is not possible with these optical data for the whole area, but sample-based approaches can be applied. in areas with frequent cloud cover, radar remote sensing, which penetrates clouds, can be used. remote-sensing methods are therefore suitable for mapping the aerial extent of deforestation activities back to the 1990s (compare e.g. inpe 2002; achard et al 2002). a good overview of ongoing activities and capabilities of current remote sensing technology is provided by jrc (european commission 2003). a key question related to this mapping effort is who pays for this. many tropical countries do not have the resources or the capacity to perform such analyzes. decisions about such task need serious consideration before deforestation avoidance credits could be considered. brazil is one of the very few countries that routinely uses remote sensing imagery to monitor their forests, but they are the exception rather than the rule. more diffi cult is the measurement of carbon stocks and their changes. appropriate methods that combine satellite remote-sensing imagery with fi eld data, e.g. by stratifi cation, are currently under development (e.g., brown 2002; carboinvent 2003). however, such methods require data from national forest inventories that are often not available. this limits the applicability of these combined fi eld-remote sensing methods, especially when carbon-stock changes should be estimated back to the 1990s. alternatively, pre-deforestation carbon stocks can be estimated from comparison with adjacent remaining forests or can be reconstructed from stumps where these remain on the site (schlamadinger et al 2003). at present, appropriate land-cover inventory systems in most tropical countries are not operational to accurately track changes in land cover and biophysical variables. considerable effort should be put into the development of such systems. combined fi eld and remote sensing methods allow cost-effective monitoring of deforestation and associated carbon-stock changes and can help meet other forest-monitoring objectives.
Who first gives an acknowledgement that there connection between population growth and climate change?
first, acknowledgment by governments in developing countries and in the donor community, by intergovernmental and nongovernmental institutions, civil society groups, philanthropic foundations, the women's health movement, and health-care providers that population growth is important in climate change
Do prominent members of society require learning in field of productive health?
equally important is the removal of conservative (attitudinal) barriers, combined with education of lawyers, health-care providers, and religious leaders about the importance of reproductive health
What are the two main factors that can accelerate escape from poverty?
lower fertility and smaller families will accelerate the escape from poverty,172-174 and thus reduce the background rates of climate-change-related mortality. population is the denominator of everything we do
for population growth, there are three major institutional challenges. first, acknowledgment by governments in developing countries and in the donor community, by intergovernmental and nongovernmental institutions, civil society groups, philanthropic foundations, the women's health movement, and health-care providers that population growth is important in climate change and that, addressing it through global reinvestment in voluntary family planning services, is both crucial and in agreement with the requests of developing countries themselves. second, all family-planning programmes require political commitment, clear management and supervision, sound logistics, and competent staff beyond these basic requirements, it is clear that success in family planning depends on dismantling the barriers to contraception. this means considering mobile services, in addition to static clinics, commercial outlets, and social marketing schemes to suit local requirements. equally important is the removal of conservative (attitudinal) barriers, combined with education of lawyers, health-care providers, and religious leaders about the importance of reproductive health. third, policy should be evidence based, and services should take a life-span approach, aiming to meet the needs of women throughout their reproductive lives, through good sex education, contraceptive services, and, where the law permits, safe abortion services that respect and protect the rights of people seeking to access those services. asserting that population issues are central to adaptive responses to climate change is not about blaming the victim. lower fertility and smaller families will accelerate the escape from poverty,172-174 and thus reduce the background rates of climate-change-related mortality. population is the denominator of everything we do. increases in population size, whether through migration or fertility, in regions vulnerable to the eff ects of climate change (such as coastal areas) means that
What time-series studies and geographic comparisons provide?
time-series studies and geographic comparisons provide good evidence that a range of health impacts are sensitive to variations in meteorologic conditions of a scale comparable to the climate changes that are expected over the coming century or so (i.e., a 1.4-5.8degc increase in global mean temperatures, changes in regional patterns of rainfall, and potential increases in the frequency of severe storms [intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) 2001a; knutson and tuleya 2004
What these impacts include?
these impacts include deaths and morbidity associated with weather extremes such as heat waves, cold waves, and floods, the incidence of all infectious diseases transmitted by insects and other invertebrate vectors or caused by pathogens that replicate in food or water, and the effects of malnutrition, particularly in poor populations that rely on subsistence farming (mcmichael et al. 2003a
Climate can influence in what?
climate can influence an even wider range of diseases through multiple pathways (e.g., gommes et al. 2004), and climate is such a major influence on all ecosystem functions that climate change, and particularly sudden "threshold" shifts, may lead to the emergence of new disease threats that are not currently foreseeable
time-series studies and geographic comparisons provide good evidence that a range of health impacts are sensitive to variations in meteorologic conditions of a scale comparable to the climate changes that are expected over the coming century or so (i.e., a 1.4-5.8degc increase in global mean temperatures, changes in regional patterns of rainfall, and potential increases in the frequency of severe storms [intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) 2001a; knutson and tuleya 2004]. these impacts include deaths and morbidity associated with weather extremes such as heat waves, cold waves, and floods, the incidence of all infectious diseases transmitted by insects and other invertebrate vectors or caused by pathogens that replicate in food or water, and the effects of malnutrition, particularly in poor populations that rely on subsistence farming (mcmichael et al. 2003a). these therefore provide an initial list of climatesensitive health outcomes that should be considered in comparative risk assessment exercise. it should be noted that taking this disease-by-disease approach already tends toward conservative estimates of the full range of health effects. climate can influence an even wider range of diseases through multiple pathways (e.g., gommes et al. 2004), and climate is such a major influence on all ecosystem functions that climate change, and particularly sudden "threshold" shifts, may lead to the emergence of new disease threats that are not currently foreseeable.
What shape are the filters?
the filters are normally circular and can be of various sizes in diameter (several metres
What happens when biomass grows on the surface of stones?
with the biomass growth on the surface of the stones, the empty spaces tend to decrease, increasing the liquid velocity through the pores. when growth reaches a certain level, the velocity causes a shearing stress that dislodges part of the attached material
Why do the trickling filters have such a low capacity than normal?
the trickling filters have a lower capacity to adjust to influent variations, besides requiring a slightly higher total area. in terms of energy consumption, the filters present a very low consumption in relation to the activated sludge system. figure 4.31 presents a typical flowsheet of low rate trickling filters
the filters are normally circular and can be of various sizes in diameter (several metres). contrary to what the name suggests, the primary function of the filter is not tofilter.thediametersofthestonesusedareoftheorderofafewcentimetres,which allows a large void space that is inefficient for the act of filtration by screening. the function of the medium is only to supply support for the formation of the microbial film. there are also synthetic media of various materials and forms, which present the advantage of being lighter than stone, besides having a higher surface area. however, the synthetic media are more expensive. the savings in construction costs must be analysed together with the greater expenditure in purchasing the synthetic media. with the biomass growth on the surface of the stones, the empty spaces tend to decrease, increasing the liquid velocity through the pores. when growth reaches a certain level, the velocity causes a shearing stress that dislodges part of the attached material. this is a natural form of controlling the microbial population in the medium. the dislodged sludge must be removed by the secondary sedimentation tanks to reduce the level of suspended solids in the final effluent. overview of wastewater treatment systems 213 the applied bod load per unit area and volume is lower in the low rate trickling filters. therefore, food availability is low, which results in a partial self digestion of the sludge (self consumption of the cellular organic matter) and a higher bod removal efficiency in the system. this is analogous to what happens in the extended aeration activated sludge system. this lower bod load per surface unit of the tank is associated with higher area requirements when compared with high rate systems, which are described in the following item. the low rate trickling filters are still more efficient in the removal of ammonia by nitrification. the low rate system is conceptually simple. although the efficiency of the system is comparable with the conventional activated sludge system, the operation is simpler, although less flexible. the trickling filters have a lower capacity to adjust to influent variations, besides requiring a slightly higher total area. in terms of energy consumption, the filters present a very low consumption in relation to the activated sludge system. figure 4.31 presents a typical flowsheet of low rate trickling filters.
Who convened the Climate Change workshop?
these workshops were convened by mariano lastra and chaired by alan jones (climate change), dave schoeman (methods) and thomas schlacher (management
How are communications between beach managers facilitated?
to facilitate communication between beach managers and ecologists, we summarise the salient features of sandy beaches as functional ecosystems in 50 'key statements
Which managers may not have access to the specialised ecological literature on sandy beaches?
structure and function of sandy beach ecosystems coastal managers may not have access to the specialised ecological literature on sandy beaches
these workshops were convened by mariano lastra and chaired by alan jones (climate change), dave schoeman (methods) and thomas schlacher (management). to facilitate communication between beach managers and ecologists, we summarise the salient features of sandy beaches as functional ecosystems in 50 'key statements'; these present the shared views of all authors of this paper and provide a succinct synopsis of the main structural and functional characteristics of these highly dynamic ecosystems. structure and function of sandy beach ecosystems coastal managers may not have access to the specialised ecological literature on sandy beaches. therefore, a concise synopsis of the main physical and ecological attributes of beaches, one that also includes the principal management implications for the conservation of their ecological features, is considered a practical tool. to this end, the following statements summarise the key features of sandy beach ecosystems globally; further information can be found in mclachlan brown (2006) and defeo mclachlan (2005).
What was the value of direct payments to farmers in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development? Totaled $ 125 billion in 2006
direct payments to farmers of the organisation of economic cooperation and development amounted to $125 billion in 2006
In the past 25 years, many low-income countries have had to adopt trade and agricultural reforms
for the past 25 years, many low-income countries had to adopt trade and agriculture reforms
What was the amount of aid from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development to farmers in developing countries? It was only $ 3 * 9 billion in 2006 and now represents 3 * 4% of aid budgets, although 75% of the poor population of the world live in rural areas
the aid of the organisation of economic cooperation and development to farmers in developing countries was only $3*9 billion in 2006, and now accounts for 3*4% of aid budgets, even though 75% of the world's poor people live in rural areas. water management will be crucial to future food security
direct payments to farmers of the organisation of economic cooperation and development amounted to $125 billion in 2006. for the past 25 years, many low-income countries had to adopt trade and agriculture reforms, including: dismantling or privatisation of public instruments such as marketing boards, farmer credit schemes, input subsidies, and extension programmes; shifting from food to export crops; and opening up to competition with the heavily subsidised agricultural businesses in developed countries.61 at the same time, development assistance to the agricultural sector has fallen. the aid of the organisation of economic cooperation and development to farmers in developing countries was only $3*9 billion in 2006, and now accounts for 3*4% of aid budgets, even though 75% of the world's poor people live in rural areas. water management will be crucial to future food security.126 co-management of water for agriculture and ecosystems is a precondition for ecological sustainability, requiring ways to value water socially, economically, and ecologically. geographic, satellite, and food price monitoring have an important role as early warning systems for famine and food insecurity, but a functioning primary health care system is probably the best and most eff ective way.
The study is focusing on food insecurity in what geographical area?
examine the implications of climate change on food security in bangladesh
What kinds of climate change were studies for agricultural impact?
a range of climate risks (i.e. warmer temperatures, higher carbon dioxide concentrations, changing characteristics of floods, droughts and potential sea level rise) is considered, to gain a more complete picture of potential agriculture impacts
What other variables effected the food security in Bangladesh?
food security is dependent on several socio-economic variables including estimated future food requirements, income levels and commodity prices
the objective of this study is to examine the implications of climate change on food security in bangladesh and to identify adaptation measures in the agriculture sector. this objective is achieved in the following ways. first, the most recent science available is used to characterize current climate and its potential changes. second, country-specific survey and biophysical data is used to derive more realistic and accurate agricultural impact functions and simulations. a range of climate risks (i.e. warmer temperatures, higher carbon dioxide concentrations, changing characteristics of floods, droughts and potential sea level rise) is considered, to gain a more complete picture of potential agriculture impacts. third, while estimating changes in production is important, this is only one dimension of food security considered here. food security is dependent on several socio-economic variables including estimated future food requirements, income levels and commodity prices. fourth, adaptation possibilities are identified for the sector. the framework established here can be used effectively to test such adaptation strategies.
What are the dominant components of diabatic heating?
long-wave radiative cooling over the eastern oceans; and sensible and condensational heating over the western and eastern continents, respectively
How is atmospheric circulation in the subtropics organized?
in the form of anticyclonic (cyclonic) circulation over oceans and cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation over continents in the lower (upper) troposphere
How will heating changes be analyzed?
we will analyse heating changes for the summertime subtropical anticyclones in the northern hemisphere from the twentieth century to the twenty-first century, when ghgs increase markedly
the existence of subtropical anticyclones has been historically linked to the descending branch of the hadley cell in the subtropics26. however, subtropical anticyclones over oceans tend to be stronger in summer when the hadley cell is weaker27,28. multiple dynamic mechanisms represented by different regional diabatic heatings have been proposed in attempts to explain this contradiction1,29,30. in the summer subtropics, the dominant components of diabatic heating are: long-wave radiative cooling over the eastern oceans; and sensible and condensational heating over the western and eastern continents, respectively31, that is, heat sources over lands and heat sinks over oceans. corresponding to such heating patterns, the atmospheric circulation in the subtropics is organized in the form of anticyclonic (cyclonic) circulation over oceans and cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation over continents in the lower (upper) troposphere32,33. studies found that the land surface sensible heating over the western continents, together with condensational heating over the eastern continents and radiative cooling over the oceans, brings the subtropical anticyclones closer to the observed strength in the lower troposphere31,34,35. hereafter, we will analyse heating changes for the summertime subtropical anticyclones in the northern hemisphere from the twentieth century to the twenty-first century, when ghgs increase markedly. cmip3 multi-model ensemble results suggest that the climatological pattern and magnitude of the modelled total column diabatic heating, as well as dominant heating components, agree reasonably well with observations of the climate mean states in the twentieth century (supplementary information). in a warming climate, what are the changes of the total column dominant heating during boreal summer (june, july, august) from the twentieth to the twenty-first century? figure 3 illustrates differences in heat sources and sinks between the last half of the twenty-first (2050-2099) and the twentieth century (1950-1999). increased sensible heating is seen mainly over western and central continents (north america, africa and western eurasia); condensational heating over the east asian
As an international organization what does Greenpeace focus upon?
as an international organisation, greenpeace focuses upon environmental issues of a global concern
What are the eight key messages of Greenpeace International global campaign?
stop climate change, protect ancient forests, save the oceans, say no to genetic engineering, stop the nuclear threat, eliminate toxic chemicals and encourage sustainable trade
Which campaign group communicates the international and or national message to a local audience.
local campaign groups
greenpeace's claim for the transparency of photography as internationally comprehensible corresponds to the global nature of greenpeace as an organisation and its campaign messages. as a 'global environmental organisation', greenpeace consists of 'greenpeace international in amsterdam' with '27 national and regional offices around the world, providing a presence in 41 countries' (greenpeace international, 2006). as an international organisation, greenpeace focuses upon environmental issues of a global concern. coordinated by greenpeace international, the global campaigns encompass eight key messages, aiming to: 'stop climate change, protect ancient forests, save the oceans, say no to genetic engineering, stop the nuclear threat, eliminate toxic chemicals and encourage sustainable trade' (greenpeace international, 2007a). whilst the national offices have autonomy, all of the campaigns need to be approved by greenpeace international and follow the messages of the global campaigns. the national regional offices rework the global campaign messages within a specific geographical and political context, making the campaign message relevant to a national regional audience. local campaign groups then communicate the international and or national message to a local audience.6
Where do wind turbines perform best?
great plains south through west texas
Where are wind turbines are most effective at displacing CO2 emissions?
the midwest
What two metrics are reported for reductions in CO2 emissions?
kilograms of co2 avoided annually and the corresponding social bene fi ts
from an energy standpoint, wind turbines perform best in the great plains south through west texas, where capacity factors can exceed 40%. the wind resource is poor in much of the west and moderate in much of the east. it is also poor in the southeast, which is excluded from our assessment owing to data limitations fig. s1 ). we report two metrics for reductions in co2 emissions -- kilograms of co2 avoided annually and the corresponding social bene fi ts, assuming a social cost of $20 per ton of co2. wind turbines are most effective at displacing co2 emissions when located in the midwest, where the wind resource is excellent and
What does the future baseline depiction of CVP/SWP operations depend on?
several climate-related assumptions, including water supplies, water demands, and operational constraints
When are the supply an demand assumptions compatible?
if the view is held that climate of the instrumental record (underlying supply assumptions) is still applicable to the future planning horizon and that the scenario definition underlying demand assumptions is applicable to the future planning horizon
What were the effects of coincidental sea-level rise related to?
operations analyses
the future baseline depiction of cvp/swp operations depends on several climate-related assumptions, including water supplies, water demands, and operational constraints. in the default analysis, these assumptions are based on hydroclimate observations from the instrumental record, reflected by hydrologic observations and impairment information from 1922 to 2003. system water demands are evaluated relative to scenario climate and land cover conditions. these supply and demand assumptions are compatible if the view is held that climate of the instrumental record (underlying supply assumptions) is still applicable to the future planning horizon and that the scenario definition underlying demand assumptions is applicable to the future planning horizon. in this study the hydroclimatic sequencing and relative variability aspects of the instrumental record were preserved (for example, relative severity and timing of droughts). however, this full-period sequence was adjusted in the mean to reflect mean monthly natural runoff responses to regional climate change possibilities by the early twenty-first century relative to the late twentieth century.12 further, the effects of coincidental sea-level rise on delta conditions were related to operations analyses (for example, they were allowed to affect the modeled delta salinity conditions constraining upstream release objectives to satisfy delta water quality or cross-delta water conveyance objectives). to bracket ranges of temperature and precipitation change possibilities, four regional climate change scenarios were defined to represent a change range by roughly 2030, similar to the bracketing approach used in ijc (2006) but
Potential effect modifiers for the relationship between heat and mortality include what 4 factors?
potential effect modifiers for the relationship between heat and mortality include air conditioning, population density, green space, or disease prevalence
What has been used to estimate the impact of modifiers (e.g., air conditioning, population density) on the coefficients relating temperature to mortality risk?
meta-regression has been used to estimate the impact of modifiers (e.g., air conditioning, population density) on the coefficients relating temperature to mortality risk (e.g., braga et al., 2001; o'neill et al., 2003 
What is an alternative approach to Meta-regression?
an alternative approach would combine these results relating city characteristics to the heat and mortality relationship with estimates of changes in those modifiers, such as from the census bureau for population density and the age pyramid, or from time trends, for air conditioning prevalence. this method projects a new coefficient for temperature in each city under future conditions, which can then be used for risk assessment
potential effect modifiers for the relationship between heat and mortality include air conditioning, population density, green space, or disease prevalence. one could investigate the relation between these variables and temperature effects, and then predict future effects based on expected future distributions of these modifiers in the city of interest. meta-regression has been used to estimate the impact of modifiers (e.g., air conditioning, population density) on the coefficients relating temperature to mortality risk (e.g., braga et al., 2001; o'neill et al., 2003 ). an alternative approach would combine these results relating city characteristics to the heat and mortality relationship with estimates of changes in those modifiers, such as from the census bureau for population density and the age pyramid, or from time trends, for air conditioning prevalence. this method projects a new coefficient for temperature in each city under future conditions, which can then be used for risk assessment. this method is similar to the approach using exposure-response curves from the city of interest or an analogue city, in that it bases calculations on an exposure-response curve, although with different slopes. for example, using the american housing survey, we can estimate a slope of air conditioning prevalence versus time and per capita gross domestic product (gdp) using data in the last 20 years in a given region. applying those estimates to the congressional budget office's estimates of change in per capita gdp, we can predict, for each future year, the prevalence of central air conditioning in each city. if we obtain from the meta-analyses an estimate of how the slope of the temperature mortality relation varies by air conditioning prevalence, we can perform adjustments to generate estimates under future conditions. given baseline estimates from this approach, we can also use the results from medinaramon et al. (2006) to further adjust the slopes for changes in prevalence of medical conditions, such as diabetes. estimated changes in the prevalence of these conditions can be obtained from the centers for disease control and prevention. this approach has the advantage of incorporating trends in underlying drivers of vulnerability/adaptation, along with scientific knowledge regarding their impacts, to evaluate future responses to heat.
Why is UNFCCC/Kyoto model was structurally flawed?
because it systematically misunderstood the nature of climate change as a policy issue between 1985 and 2009
What does the Hartwell Paper advocates?
the paper advocates a radical reframing - an inverting - of approach: accepting that decarbonisation will only be achieved successfully as a benefit contingent upon other goals which are politically attractive and relentlessly pragmatic
What is the essential functioning of the Earth system?
ensuring that our societies are adequately equipped to withstand the risks and dangers that come from all the vagaries of climate, whatever their cause may be
climate policy, as it has been understood and practised by many governments of the world under the kyoto protocol approach, has failed to produce any discernable real world reductions in emissions of greenhouse gases in fifteen years. the underlying reason for this is that the unfccc/kyoto model was structurally flawed and doomed to fail because it systematically misunderstood the nature of climate change as a policy issue between 1985 and 2009. however, the currently dominant approach has acquired immense political momentum because of the quantities of political capital sunk into it. but in any case the unfccc/kyoto model of climate policy cannot continue because it crashed in late 2009. the hartwell paper sets and reviews this context; but doing so is not its sole or primary purpose. the crash of 2009 presents an immense opportunity to set climate policy free to fly at last. the principal motivation and purpose of this paper is to explain and to advance this opportunity. to do so involves understanding and accepting a startling proposition. it is now plain that it is not possible to have a 'climate policy' that has emissions reductions as the all encompassing goal. however, there are many other reasons why the decarbonisation of the global economy is highly desirable. therefore, the paper advocates a radical reframing - an inverting - of approach: accepting that decarbonisation will only be achieved successfully as a benefit contingent upon other goals which are politically attractive and relentlessly pragmatic. the paper therefore proposes that the organising principle of our effort should be the raising up of human dignity via three overarching objectives: ensuring energy access for all; ensuring that we develop in a manner that does not undermine the essential functioning of the earth system; ensuring that our societies are adequately equipped to withstand the risks and dangers that come from all the vagaries of climate, whatever their cause may be. it explains radical and practical ways to reduce non - co2 human forcing of climate. it argues that improved climate risk management is a valid policy goal, and is not simply congruent with carbon policy. it explains the political prerequisite of energy efficiency strategies as a first step and documents how this can achieve real emissions reductions. but, above all, it emphasises the primacy of accelerating decarbonisation of energy supply. this calls for very substantially increased investment in innovation in non - carbon energy sources in order to diversify energy supply technologies. the ultimate goal of doing this is to develop non - carbon energy supplies at unsubsidised costs less than those using fossil fuels. the hartwell paper advocates funding this work by low hypothecated (dedicated) carbon taxes. it opens discussion on how to channel such money productively. to reframe the climate issue around matters of human dignity is not just noble or necessary. it is also likely to be more effective than the approach of framing around human sinfulness -which has failed and will continue to fail. the hartwell paper follows the advice that a good crisis should not be wasted
What are all the includes to sheep in 1997?
the lppnb subsistence economy expanded to include domesticated sheep von den driesch und wodtke 1997; von den driesch 1999; wasse 1997
Which period reduced to hectare?
reduced to around 5 hectares during the ppnc period
Which hectares between to 3000 people?
3000 people or more, and covered between 14-15 hectares on both banks of the river
fig. 8). based on full-fledged cereal and pulse agriculture and goat herding von den driesch und wodtke 1997; von den driesch 1999 ), the site grew in terms of size and population during the mppnb by up to around five hectares by the end of the period. but at around 9500 calbp the settlement size suddenly doubled (within a few generations), and the succeeding lppnb population grew to around 3000 people or more, and covered between 14-15 hectares on both banks of the river. the lppnb subsistence economy expanded to include domesticated sheep von den driesch und wodtke 1997; von den driesch 1999; wasse 1997 ). at some time around 9000 calbp the site decreased in size as dramatically as it had grown only 400- 500 years earlier, reduced to around 5 hectares during the ppnc period. during the following yarmoukian culture of the pottery neolithic period the village continued to decrease in size and population, and eventually the site no longer supported a permanent farming population of any size, replaced instead by periodic visits to the spring by yarmoukian pastoralists.
What are some factors to consider when relocated a species to mitigate the impact of climate change?
effect of climate change on the source and the destination populations, the demographic cost of relocation and the growth rates of the population in both areas all influence the optimal timing of managed relocation
What situation may require an insurance captive population?
in an extreme case, where the destination habitat may not become viable until after the source population is lost, the establishment of an insurance captive population may need to be considered as an interim strategy
Which figure displays information about how the suitability of the new habitat changes over time?
for example, first, the destination habitat is also likely to be changing with time; in fact, the suitability of this habitat may improve with time, affecting the best time to move a species (see, for example, fig. 1
the decision to move a species to a new area given the impact of climatic change is far from simple. indeed, predictions and uncertainty about the effect of climate change on the source and the destination populations, the demographic cost of relocation and the growth rates of the population in both areas all influence the optimal timing of managed relocation. alternative programme objectives (for example, maximize growth rate) and the consideration of a different suite of actions (for example allowing staggered movement) also may alter the optimal timing of relocation. the counterintuitive nature of some results and the sensitivity of the decision to these different factors highlight the need for an explicit structure that considers the anticipated system dynamics, uncertainty about these dynamics, and the benefits of active learning. the framework we present provides the scaffolding for careful analysis of managed relocation decisions. there are additional factors that managers may want to consider. for example, first, the destination habitat is also likely to be changing with time; in fact, the suitability of this habitat may improve with time, affecting the best time to move a species (see, for example, fig. 1). in an extreme case, where the destination habitat may not become viable until after the source population is lost, the establishment of an insurance captive population may need to be considered as an interim strategy. second, how the destination habitat is changing with time may be uncertain, requiring learning about the destination before making a decision to move the species. third, environmental stochasticity may be an important dynamic to include in the population model, particularly for highly threatened species at low numbers. the framework we have provided could be expanded to incorporate all these intricacies and others, and we would expect this expansion to give rise to further novel patterns in the optimal strategies. our decision science framework provides a platform to increase our understanding of decision making in the face of climate change. there are two key components of climate change that are particularly challenging: management in the face of system changes; and management in the face of uncertainty surrounding these changes. regarding the first challenge, we have shown that by using time-dependent dynamic optimization methods we can make informed decisions in the face of system change. the second challenge has paralyzed the ability of agencies to make decisions in a changing world, and caused some to advocate broad-based monitoring to reduce uncertainty without any link to what should actually be done if the systems are found to be in decline. instead, we have shown here that by explicitly articulating uncertainty in the form of alternative models of system change, and evaluating the evidence for these different models with information gained about the system, we can make informed decisions regarding adaptation in the face of uncertain climate change.
How were random values for the N20 emission factor generated?
random values for the n2o emission factor were generated on a flat probability distribution within the given range as there was no rationale to suggest that values suggested by ref. 78 are more or less likely than the ipcc default values
Where are the ranges of variables explored by sensitivity analyses shown?
the ranges of the variables explored by sensitivity analyses are given in table s7
In the Monte-Carlo analysis, how were random values generated?
for the monte-carlo anaylsis, random values were generated for all variables (with the exception of n2o emission factor) with probabilities following a gaussian distribution with mean equal to the estimated value and standard deviation set such that the range is a 95% confidence interval
the ranges of the variables explored by sensitivity analyses are given in table s7. for the monte-carlo anaylsis, random values were generated for all variables (with the exception of n2o emission factor) with probabilities following a gaussian distribution with mean equal to the estimated value and standard deviation set such that the range is a 95% confidence interval. that is, the standard deviation, s (determined numerically), is such that phm s 2(xh) phm s 2(xl) 0.95, where, phm s 2(x) is the gaussian cumulative distribution function ph [(x - m )/ s ], m is the mean, xl is the lower limit of the range and xh is the upper limit of the range. random values for the n2o emission factor were generated on a flat probability distribution within the given range as there was no rationale to suggest that values suggested by ref. 78 are more or less likely than the ipcc default values. 20 20
What is the climate of southern Africa like?
the climate of southern africa is highly variable and unpredictable and the region is prone to extreme weather conditions, including droughts and floods (dfid 2004; kinuthia, 1997
What is the main source of livelihoods for most rural communities in developing countries and sub-Saharan Africa in particular?
agricultural production remains the main source of livelihoods for most rural communities in developing countries and sub-saharan africa in particular
What is assumed by the cross-sectional Ricardian model?
the cross-sectional ricardian model implicitly assumes that farmers are rational and adapt to changes in climatic conditions in their decision making process
the climate of southern africa is highly variable and unpredictable and the region is prone to extreme weather conditions, including droughts and floods (dfid 2004; kinuthia, 1997). climate change with expected long-term changes in rainfall patterns and shifting temperature zones are expected to have significant negative effects on agriculture, food and water security and economic growth in africa; and increased frequency and intensity of droughts and floods is expected to negatively affect agricultural production and food security (dfid 2004; kinuthia, 1997). according to dfid (2004) climate change will result in northern and southern latitudes getting drier while the tropics are expected to become wetter. moreover, climate variability is expected to increase with increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather conditions in africa. the implications for southern africa are that the region would generally get drier and experience more extreme weather conditions, particularly droughts and floods, although there would be variations within the region with some countries experiencing wetter than average climate. agricultural production remains the main source of livelihoods for most rural communities in developing countries and sub-saharan africa in particular. here, agriculture provides a source of employment for more than 60 percent of the population and contributes about 30 percent of gross domestic product (gdp) (kandlinkar and risbey 2000). climate change will have greater negative impacts on poorer farm households as they have the lowest capacity to adapt to changes in climatic conditions. adaptation measures are therefore important to help these communities to better face extreme weather conditions and associated climatic variations (adger et al. 2003). adaptation has the potential to significantly contribute to reductions in negative impacts from changes in climatic conditions as well as other changing socioeconomic conditions, such as volatile short-term changes in local and international markets (kandlinkar and risbey 2000). therefore, an analysis of adaptation options and constraints to adaptation is important for the agricultural communities of southern africa. a better understanding of farmer perceptions regarding long-term climatic changes, current adaptation measures and their determinants will be important to inform policy for future successful adaptation of the agricultural sector. this paper provides insights on farmer perceptions regarding changes in climate, adaptation options and their determinants as well as barriers to adaptation. a number of economic impact assessment studies in southern africa use the ricardian crosssection approach for measuring impacts of climate change on agriculture, including mano and nhemachena (2006) for zimbabwe; gbetibouo and hassan (2005) and benhin (2006) for south africa; jain (2006) for zambia. the advantage of using this approach is that it incorporates adaptation in the analysis of impacts of climate change. the cross-sectional ricardian model implicitly assumes that farmers are rational and adapt to changes in climatic conditions in their decision making process. the limitation of this approach in analyzing adaptation is that the underlying assumptions that "historical
What is the condition for the investment in research on food systems that are resilient to climate shocks be more likely to occur?
investment in research on food systems that are resilient to climate shocks may be more likely to occur if csa expands beyond the agricultural sector
What issues could the CSA research involve?
as examples, csa research could more explicitly involve issues related to: (1) local, national and regional food trade, including governance and regulations, food safety, roads and infrastructure, and value chain coordination; (2) flexibility in financial arrangements, insurance and planning to cope with, and be responsive to, variability in climate and markets; and (3) integration of the interdisciplinary research to form a more holistic and service-oriented approach based on science to inform policy
What do the CSA strategies support?
csa strategies support the realization of a broader green economy concept that acknowledges ' the sum total of all ecosystem services and how they collectively provide the complete life support system we need ' [292], p. 9
investment in research on food systems that are resilient to climate shocks may be more likely to occur if csa expands beyond the agricultural sector. as examples, csa research could more explicitly involve issues related to: (1) local, national and regional food trade, including governance and regulations, food safety, roads and infrastructure, and value chain coordination; (2) flexibility in financial arrangements, insurance and planning to cope with, and be responsive to, variability in climate and markets; and (3) integration of the interdisciplinary research to form a more holistic and service-oriented approach based on science to inform policy. for research to be utilized most effectively in policies related to csa, pathways for communication of the latest scientific progress and research results must be established within relevant time frames. communication must span sectors and scales in which policymakers and other stakeholders operate, crossing boundaries between scientists and local, regional and global actors such as nongovernmental organizations, governmental agencies, corporations and broad social and media networks [290]. csa strategies support the realization of a broader green economy concept that acknowledges ' the sum total of all ecosystem services and how they collectively provide the complete life support system we need ' [292], p. 9. in practice, market prices, costs, and benefits for the ecosystem services related to carbon sequestration, clean water production, flood protection and grass forage have been quantified. in cameroon, for instance, the value (in us$ [?] ha- 1[?] yr- 1) attributed to the forest ' s contribution to climate and flood control is 1.3to 2.6-fold greater than that of the timber, fuel wood and nontimber products. coordinated action resulting from csa and green economy research not only realizes the improvement of livelihoods and food security through mitigation and adaptation to climate change but also creates cobenefits for ecosystem services and sustainable use of natural capital and enables evaluation of a broader set of trade-offs associated with a certain course of action.
What do the test suggest?
t that the parameterized river runoff makes the simulated ocean salinity distribution more realistic
What has NCAR scientists developed?
ncar scientists have developed a framework for land modeling that unifies otherwise separate land modules
What has The Land Model Working Group has completed?
a prototype, core single-column land model, designated the common land model (clm), which is intended to replace the current land surface model
zhang et al. 1998a; collins 1998). implementation of an improved radiation parameterization is, therefore, a high priority. we have tested several alternative formulations for the (indirect) effect of aerosols on the cloud drop size distribution and performed multiyear uncoupled simulations. the direct effect of sulfate aerosols was included in the radiative transfer model. the indirect effects are highly uncertain, and so they are currently being omitted from transient climate scenarios. sulfate aerosol distributions were obtained from the interactive sulfate chemistry model of barth et al. (2000). three-dimensional aerosol distributions can be either specified from previous simulations or solved for interactively in the coupled model. the concentrations of ch4, n2o, cfc11, and cfc12 (the principal greenhouse gases other than co2) can now be predicted by the model, based on specified distributions of the surface concentrations (not emissions); and loss rates are parameterized. the latter were derived from the photochemical model of the noaa aeronomy laboratory. finally, the atmosphere model has been modified to produce network common data form output. b. land surface model development the land surface model is now a separate executable (no longer contained within the atmospheric executable). a catchment basin runoff model has been developed in collaboration with the university of texas at austin. tests suggest that the parameterized river runoff makes the simulated ocean salinity distribution more realistic. the land model working group has completed a prototype, core single-column land model, designated the common land model (clm), which is intended to replace the current land surface model. the clm has three major logical elements. these are the core single-column model, the externally prescribed spatially distributed datasets needed for its boundary conditions and evaluation, and the scaling laws that map between its single point fluxes and the spatially averaged values needed by or provided by the atmosphere. past approaches with simpler models have tended to combine these three constructs, for example, by assuming an equivalence between point and area-averaged processes or by including scaling algorithms as part of the physical parameterizations of the point model. however, separating the three elements should provide a framework that allows greater robustness across platforms, more interchangeability of codes and data between modeling groups, and greater participation by specialists involved with subissues. the exchanges of energy, water, and momentum between the land surface and atmosphere vary rapidly because of the diurnal cycle. they strongly influence boundary layer processes and deep moist convection, which produce feedbacks. a major difficulty in land surface modeling is that many important processes, notably precipitation, occur on small spatial scales. land models depend on descriptions of seasonally and interannually varying vegetation cover and leaf densities, as well as maps of different types of vegetation according to their architectures, leaf morphologies, and growth rates. these vegetation types may change over decades or centuries, according to their interactions with the climate system. while vegetation type, cover, and state (e.g., active or inactive) have been prescribed in the past, the scientific questions to be addressed in the near future require modelers to specify this information either for individual years or through interactive models of the vegetation dynamics. there is still no generally accepted way to incorporate global vegetation data into a land model. past methods have been based on descriptions of broad ecosystems, while a newer approach is to lump together broad plant functional types. carbon fluxes to leaves determine water fluxes from leaves (bonan 1998; dickinson et al. 1998). because of this carbon dependence and a strong dependence of soil biogeochemistry on soil moisture and temperature, the land surface processes drive biogeochemical and ecological processes. coupling of the land surface model with a terrestrial biogeochemistry model is a key goal for the near future. ncar scientists have developed a framework for land modeling that unifies otherwise separate land modules. currently implemented besides the land biophysical package is (i) a parameterization for river routing as needed to provide the freshwater input to the ocean model and in the future generate lakes and wetlands, (ii) a parameterization for the injection into the atmosphere of desert dust as needed for aerosol modeling, and (iii) vegetative sources of volatile organic compounds. a major, yet to be developed, additional component is a comprehensive terrestrial biogeochemistry package. c. ocean model development ocean models for climate are run at fairly coarse resolutions, which are practical for long integrations.
What three prongs is the Adaptive Collaborative Management approach built on?
these three prongs build on the following observations (each followed by the kinds of actions needed to address them): the need to understand the views of the many stakeholders typically 1. interested in forests and their management. tools have been developed to identify the relevant people and to fashion forums in which they can communicate more effectively with each other, as they deal with change. the need to have better mechanisms for learning from experience. 2. researchers have worked with groups of people to successfully analyse, plan, monitor and alter course--crucial abilities as the climate changes. the need to address the inequitable distribution of power in today's forests 3. (and into the future). action researchers have worked with marginalised and dominant groups, women and men at various scales, to level the playing field, in an attempt to address the needs of those who currently have crucial (and probably growing) needs, but little voice in the management of local forests and other decisions affecting their wellbeing
Researchers have been experimenting with approaches that emphasise adaptation and collaboration since when?
since the 1990s
learning from previous experiences implementing forest adaptation should not start from scratch, but be built on experiences of building adaptive and collaborative management, recognising the need for links and mutual support among levels. researchers in various contexts have been experimenting, since the 1990s, with approaches that emphasise adaptation and collaboration. a large body of literature is relevant for implementing forest adaptation at local scales-- for example, cifor's acm (adaptive collaborative management) series (see below), buck et al. (2001), tompkins and adger (2004), armitage et al. (2008). these approaches were developed partly because, in the late 1990s, the researchers had a growing sense that the processes involved in improving sustainability and human wellbeing needed to be studied and improved, rather than simply documenting the obvious failures in those realms. this concern is even more pressing now than it was at that time. the adaptive collaborative management approach the acm approach, as a good example, is built on three prongs, all of which will be crucial in adapting to climate change. these three prongs build on the following observations (each followed by the kinds of actions needed to address them): the need to understand the views of the many stakeholders typically 1. interested in forests and their management. tools have been developed to identify the relevant people and to fashion forums in which they can communicate more effectively with each other, as they deal with change. the need to have better mechanisms for learning from experience. 2. researchers have worked with groups of people to successfully analyse, plan, monitor and alter course--crucial abilities as the climate changes. the need to address the inequitable distribution of power in today's forests 3. (and into the future). action researchers have worked with marginalised and dominant groups, women and men at various scales, to level the playing field, in an attempt to address the needs of those who currently have crucial (and probably growing) needs, but little voice in the management of local forests and other decisions affecting their wellbeing. typically, trained local facilitators have played central roles. such facilitators use participatory action research to work with local community groups (and more recently, with local governments) to strengthen local analytical capabilities
what where separate studys for
separate samples were used to test the hypothesized relationships
what where the universities involved in the study
midwestern universities
separate samples were used to test the hypothesized relationships. study 1 utilized a sample n  1/4  404) that were all the students from designated management classes at two midwestern universities. it should be noted this sample was also used for other purposes (i.e., not testing hypotheses as in the present study) in previous research (luthans, avolio et al., 2007). these participants had an average age of 21.10 years (sd  1/4  2.66) and 58 per cent were male. although the emerging adult population is an interesting population for the future of organizations (arnett, 2000), for better generalization, studies 2 and 3 used two separate field samples including organizations that represent both service and high-tech manufacturing industries (see organizational context for specifics on these two firms). the sample in study 2 was made up of 163 out of about 200 employees in the policy and claims processing group (82 per cent), who volunteered to participate in the study. they represented all the
What were Luo et al (2005)'s interests?
luo et al (2005) were interested in the impacts of climate change over the wheat production of a small region of south australia
What is derived on a monthly basis?
using output from gcms and regional climate models (rcms) run under different scenarios, they derive a regression relation between local change in temperature and precipitation and global average warming on a monthly basis
Name the three dimensions used in sampling in the Monte Carlo framework
by sampling in a monte carlo framework along three different dimensions of uncertainty (climate scenarios, climate sensitivity and local change projections, the latter exemplified by different gcm-specific patterns), histograms of temperature and precipitation change in the regions are constructed and the results fed to a weather generator and used as input in crop models
the approach is the same as in ra"isa"nen palmer (2001) and palmer ra"isa"nen (2002) but is applied to trends downscaled from gcm output by a simple delta method, where regional anomalies simulated by gcms are applied to observed local trends at a fine network of stations. luo et al (2005) were interested in the impacts of climate change over the wheat production of a small region of south australia. using output from gcms and regional climate models (rcms) run under different scenarios, they derive a regression relation between local change in temperature and precipitation and global average warming on a monthly basis. in turn, a relation between global warming and co2 concentrations and climate sensitivity is also derived. by sampling in a monte carlo framework along three different dimensions of uncertainty (climate scenarios, climate sensitivity and local change projections, the latter exemplified by different gcm-specific patterns), histograms of temperature and precipitation change in the regions are constructed and the results fed to a weather generator and used as input in crop models. dettinger (2005) proposes resampling a given
What is the niche model?
if any of these assumptions are not met in a given study (or, more likely, to the degree to which they are violated), the niche model will constitute an incomplete and/or distorted estimate of the species' existing fundamental niche
What is nonequilibrium?
the topic of nonequilibrium distributions and violation of these assumptions remains an empirical question for research
if any of these assumptions are not met in a given study (or, more likely, to the degree to which they are violated), the niche model will constitute an incomplete and/or distorted estimate of the species' existing fundamental niche. this theoretical structureleadstoprinciplesforselectingoccurrencedata, specifically regarding the characteristics of study regions more likely to match these assumptions and allow for niche models that provide more realistic forecasts when transferred across space or time. situationsthataddonlynoise(notenvironmentalbias) are probably more common at local-to-regional scales and over shorter time spans, for example via metapopulation dynamics.52nevertheless, the topic of nonequilibrium distributions and violation of these assumptions remains an empirical question for research. the principles. these assumptions lead to principles for selecting presence records and comparison data, although conflict may sometimes exist between the niche space assumption and the three noise assumptions. overall, presence records
Why is the tropical circulation weakening?
another indication of a weakening of the tropical circulation is the increased residence time of atmospheric water vapour. general circulation models, without exception, show a larger increase in atmospheric water vapour than in precipitation (held and soden, 2006). echam5 at both t63 and t213 resolutions shows an increase in the average residence time, from 20c to 21c, of water in the atmosphere from 8.7 to 10.3 d, or by 19%. a similar percentage increase is seen in the tropics (30s-30n). whether this would imply a reduced frequency of tropical storms is not obvious from these general considerations. however, we have examined changes in the fields of velocity potential between 20c and 21c (not shown) for the main activity period (july-october), which controls the large-scale convergence pattern in the tropics. this shows a minor weakening and so does the associated large-scale walker circulation in the equatorial plane. we have also considered the differences in the vertical shear for this period (not shown) which indicates an increase in shear in the western pacific and the bay of bengal and a reduction in the eastern pacific and northern caribbean. this will modulate the favourable conditions required for the generation and growth of onset vortices in a warmer and moister atmosphere
Is there any other way of proving the tropical circulation is weakening beside atmospheric water vapour?
another indication of a weakening of the tropical circulation is the increased residence time of atmospheric water vapour. general circulation models, without exception, show a larger increase in atmospheric water vapour than in precipitation (held and soden, 2006). echam5 at both t63 and t213 resolutions shows an increase in the average residence time, from 20c to 21c, of water in the atmosphere from 8.7 to 10.3 d, or by 19%. a similar percentage increase is seen in the tropics (30s-30n). whether this would imply a reduced frequency of tropical storms is not obvious from these general considerations. however, we have examined changes in the fields of velocity potential between 20c and 21c (not shown) for the main activity period (july-october), which controls the large-scale convergence pattern in the tropics. this shows a minor weakening and so does the associated large-scale walker circulation in the equatorial plane. we have also considered the differences in the vertical shear for this period (not shown) which indicates an increase in shear in the western pacific and the bay of bengal and a reduction in the eastern pacific and northern caribbean. this will modulate the favourable conditions required for the generation and growth of onset vortices in a warmer and moister atmosphere
is there any way of preventing it from happening?
another indication of a weakening of the tropical circulation is the increased residence time of atmospheric water vapour. general circulation models, without exception, show a larger increase in atmospheric water vapour than in precipitation (held and soden, 2006). echam5 at both t63 and t213 resolutions shows an increase in the average residence time, from 20c to 21c, of water in the atmosphere from 8.7 to 10.3 d, or by 19%. a similar percentage increase is seen in the tropics (30s-30n). whether this would imply a reduced frequency of tropical storms is not obvious from these general considerations. however, we have examined changes in the fields of velocity potential between 20c and 21c (not shown) for the main activity period (july-october), which controls the large-scale convergence pattern in the tropics. this shows a minor weakening and so does the associated large-scale walker circulation in the equatorial plane. we have also considered the differences in the vertical shear for this period (not shown) which indicates an increase in shear in the western pacific and the bay of bengal and a reduction in the eastern pacific and northern caribbean. this will modulate the favourable conditions required for the generation and growth of onset vortices in a warmer and moister atmosphere
another indication of a weakening of the tropical circulation is the increased residence time of atmospheric water vapour. general circulation models, without exception, show a larger increase in atmospheric water vapour than in precipitation (held and soden, 2006). echam5 at both t63 and t213 resolutions shows an increase in the average residence time, from 20c to 21c, of water in the atmosphere from 8.7 to 10.3 d, or by 19%. a similar percentage increase is seen in the tropics (30s-30n). whether this would imply a reduced frequency of tropical storms is not obvious from these general considerations. however, we have examined changes in the fields of velocity potential between 20c and 21c (not shown) for the main activity period (july-october), which controls the large-scale convergence pattern in the tropics. this shows a minor weakening and so does the associated large-scale walker circulation in the equatorial plane. we have also considered the differences in the vertical shear for this period (not shown) which indicates an increase in shear in the western pacific and the bay of bengal and a reduction in the eastern pacific and northern caribbean. this will modulate the favourable conditions required for the generation and growth of onset vortices in a warmer and moister atmosphere.
What is showing for comparison?
the original (nonstandardized) fire-episode frequency curves (but not peaks or background) are also shown for comparison
the standardized charcoal data, including char, bchar, peaks and fire-episode frequency, are shown for all 15 sites in figure 3. background data were smoothed using a 500-yr window width, and fire-episode frequency was smoothed with a 2000-yr window. the original values of the threshold ratio, which determines how much charcoal above background is required for a peak, were retained. the original (nonstandardized) fire-episode frequency curves (but not peaks or background) are also shown for comparison. char and bchar were plotted on logarithmic scales, whereas fire-episode frequency was plotted on linear scales. for most records, standardization did not significantly alter the charcoal data; however, records from cedar, bluff and crater lakes were an jennifer marlon et al .: fire  fuel  climate linkages in the northwestern usa 1063
what are the causes for climate change?
the impacts of climate change are already causing migration and displacement
People who effect first?
people in the least developed countries and island states will be affected first and worst
what are the consequences?
the consequences for almost all aspects of development and human security could be devastating. there may also be substantial implications for political stability
the impacts of climate change are already causing migration and displacement. although the exact number of people that will be on the move by mid-century is uncertain, the scope and scale could vastly exceed anything that has occurred before. people in the least developed countries and island states will be affected first and worst. the consequences for almost all aspects of development and human security could be devastating. there may also be substantial implications for political stability. most people will seek shelter in their own countries while others cross borders in search of better odds. some displacement and migration may be prevented through the implementation of adaptation measures. however, poorer countries are underequipped to support widespread adaptation. as a result, societies affected by climate change may find themselves locked into a downward spiral of ecological degradation, towards the bottom of which social safety nets collapse while tensions and violence rise. in this all-too-plausible worst-case scenario, large populations would be forced to migrate as a matter of immediate survival. climate-related migration and displacement can be successfully addressed only if they are seen as global processes rather than local crises. the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities--both in terms of minimizing displacement and supporting unavoidable migration--must, therefore, underlie policy negotiations and subsequent outcomes. the burden of assisting and protecting displaced populations cannot be allowed to fall on the shoulders of most affected states alone.
What does the INTIMATE initiative aims to establish?
this international initiative aims to establish a more detailed knowledge of the nature, timing and regional to global extent of climatic and environmental changes associated with the last termination (the end of the last glaciation
What do the inset maps in the poster show?
inset maps show new zealand's oceanographic setting, principal currents and water masses, extent of glaciers, and distribution of vegetation zones at approximately 22,000 calendar years ago and at modern times (incorporating the inferred vegetation distribution at c 1250 ad, before deforestation associated with human settlement
What is a calendar-age timescale?
a calendar-age timescale is based on a combination of volcanic ash (tephra) and radiometric dates
a poster summarizing a representative selection of evidence for environmental conditions and climate change in new zealand during the last 30,000 years has been prepared as a "firststep" contribution to the intimate (integration of ice-core, marine and terrestrial records) initiative of the inqua (international union for quaternary research) paleoclimate commission. this international initiative aims to establish a more detailed knowledge of the nature, timing and regional to global extent of climatic and environmental changes associated with the last termination (the end of the last glaciation). the poster depicts key new zealand onshore and offshore records for the last glacial maximum (lgm) and the last glacial-interglacial transition (lgit), from a variety of latitudes and elevations. inset maps show new zealand's oceanographic setting, principal currents and water masses, extent of glaciers, and distribution of vegetation zones at approximately 22,000 calendar years ago and at modern times (incorporating the inferred vegetation distribution at c 1250 ad, before deforestation associated with human settlement). a calendar-age timescale is based on a combination of volcanic ash (tephra) and radiometric dates. paleoclimate records from ice cores from antarctica and greenland are presented for comparison with new zealand records. high-resolution records are presented for sediment-filled volcanic craters in auckland (total carbon, carbon isotopes and pollen), wetlands in northeast north island, central north island and western south island (pollen), marine sediments off eastern north island (oxygen isotopes), and stalagmites in caves in northwest south island (carbon and oxygen isotopes). in addition, the poster includes a range of lower resolution or fragmentary records of climate events, based on glacial landforms and deposits (central southern alps, south island), river terraces and deposits, loess deposits (eastern north and south islands), and aeolian quartz silt in non-quartzose, loess-like, andesitic tephric deposits of western north island. the poster reflects work-in-progress and aims to assist comparison of the new zealand paleoclimate records with those from the wider australasian region and elsewhere. the immediate goal is the establishment of an australasian-intimate climate event stratigraphy by the new zealand and australian paleoclimate communities, for presentation at the 2007 inqua cairns symposium. keywords quaternary, holocene, last glacial maximum, interglacial, paleoclimate, glaciers, vegetation, oceanography, ocean currents, dating, tephra, carbon content, carbon isotopes, oxygen isotopes, marine core, foraminifera, pollen, speleothems, glacial sequences, river fluvial sequences, loess, aeolian quartz, auckland, kaipo, taranaki, otamangakau, gisborne, hawkes bay, wairarapa, nelson, buller, westland, okarito, southern alps, canterbury.
What phenomenon can self-purification be understood as?
self-purification can be understood as a phenomenon of ecological succession
What can the presence or absence of pollution can be characterised by?
the presence or absence of pollution can be characterised by the concept of species diversity
Is the ecosystem of a water body upstream of the discharge of untreated wastewater in a state of equilibrium?
the ecosystem of a water body upstream of the discharge of untreated wastewater is usually in a state of equilibrium
the ecosystem of a water body upstream of the discharge of untreated wastewater is usually in a state of equilibrium. downstream of the discharge, the equilibrium between the communities is affected, resulting in an initial disorganisation followed by a subsequent tendency towards rearrangement. in this sense, self-purification can be understood as a phenomenon of ecological succession along the river, there is a systematic sequence of replacements of a community by another, until a stable community is established, in equilibrium with the local conditions. the presence or absence of pollution can be characterised by the concept of species diversity ecosystem in natural conditions:
What is GCM-based patterns?
gcm-based patterns (m had a substantially coarser spatial resolution than the 0.5 degree resolution of the scenarios (table 3), it was necessary to decide whether to provide a smooth interpolated surface, or to retain the granularity of the original gcm
why compromise is necessary to balance?
a compromise was necessary to balance the need to avoid discontinuities between 0.5 degree grid boxes, and the need to minimise the influence of ocean gcm grid boxes on land 0.5 degree grid boxes
why delaunay triangulation is used?
the patterns were interpolated to the 0.5 degree resolution using a delaunay triangulation of a planar set of points. additional smoothing was required to transform from 0.5 degrees to 10 minutes over europe
since the gcm-based patterns (m had a substantially coarser spatial resolution than the 0.5 degree resolution of the scenarios (table 3), it was necessary to decide whether to provide a smooth interpolated surface, or to retain the granularity of the original gcm. a compromise was necessary to balance the need to avoid discontinuities between 0.5 degree grid boxes, and the need to minimise the influence of ocean gcm grid boxes on land 0.5 degree grid boxes. therefore the patterns were interpolated to the 0.5 degree resolution using a delaunay triangulation of a planar set of points. additional smoothing was required to transform from 0.5 degrees to 10 minutes over europe.
How would warmer temperatures and poor air quality affect the eldery?
particular attention was paid to the effects of high temperature combined with poor air quality in large southern canadian cities. it was concluded that, in cities such as toronto, ottawa and montreal, the degree of warming projected over the next few decades could lead to a significant increase in the number of deaths during severe heat waves, particularly among the elderly and the infirm
What infectious disease could be caused by heavy rainfall?
the canada country study also drew attention to potential increases in disease transmission and bacterial contamination due to climate change. for example, heavy rainfalls could increase outbreaks of infectious diseases such as cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis ('beaver fever
Warmer temperures would encourage what to grow?
warmer temperatures would generally favour the survival of cholera bacteria, as well as the growth of certain algae
particular attention was paid to the effects of high temperature combined with poor air quality in large southern canadian cities. it was concluded that, in cities such as toronto, ottawa and montreal, the degree of warming projected over the next few decades could lead to a significant increase in the number of deaths during severe heat waves, particularly among the elderly and the infirm. the canada country study also drew attention to potential increases in disease transmission and bacterial contamination due to climate change. for example, heavy rainfalls could increase outbreaks of infectious diseases such as cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis ('beaver fever'). warmer temperatures would generally favour the survival of cholera bacteria, as well as the growth of certain algae
Define anomalies ?
the anomalies are consistent with the signature of reof 1 (cf. fig. 5 top panels
What would happen if there is The alternating cold and warm surface temperature?
the alternating cold and warm surface temperature anomalies reflect the upper level wind and associated height anomalies (with upper level ridges associated with warm surface conditions over northern eurasia
Explain the  warm anomalies ?
particularly noteworthy are the warm anomalies over europe during june 2003, and over eastern russia during july 2010. also during 2010, the southern track of the 250mb v-wind anomalies (fig. 8) appears to be associated with cold (and wet - not shown) anomalies over northern pakistan (also a signature of reof 1 - fig. 4), which may have contributed to the intense flooding in that region in july and august
fig. 9 shows the associated surface temperature anomalies. the anomalies are consistent with the signature of reof 1 (cf. fig. 5 top panels). the alternating cold and warm surface temperature anomalies reflect the upper level wind and associated height anomalies (with upper level ridges associated with warm surface conditions over northern eurasia). particularly noteworthy are the warm anomalies over europe during june 2003, and over eastern russia during july 2010. also during 2010, the southern track of the 250mb v-wind anomalies (fig. 8) appears to be associated with cold (and wet - not shown) anomalies over northern pakistan (also a signature of reof 1 - fig. 4), which may have contributed to the intense flooding in that region in july and august. we note that reof 5 also impacts that region, with the positive phase producing positive rainfall anomalies. in 2010, reof 5 was negative in the early summer (associated with negative precipitation anomalies) and then switched to positive values in august - presumably contributing to the flooding during that month.
Why did Losch note about simulations?
differences between a boussinesq and a nonboussinesq simulation can be small for coarsely resolved steady flow, relative to uncertainties in other terms within the model equations
Why may one prefer the formulation of an ocean model in terms of a non-Boussinesq model?
to reduce the level of approximations, and to have more confidence in the simulation's accuracy when moving to fine resolution and realistic time dependent boundary forcing
What does this isomorphism facilitate?
a clean and efficient mapping between discrete representations of these two fluids using the same numerical algorithm
d [?]t rz, expressing changes in surface height due to tendencies in the depth averaged density, is absent in the volume conserving fluid. this precludes the volume conserving fluid from directly prognosing the full surface height of the ocean. as noted by losch et al. (2004), differences between a boussinesq and a nonboussinesq simulation can be small for coarsely resolved steady flow, relative to uncertainties in other terms within the model equations. even so, one may prefer the formulation of an ocean model in terms of a non-boussinesq fluid in order to reduce the level of approximations, and to have more confidence in the simulation's accuracy when moving to fine resolution and realistic time dependent boundary forcing. furthermore, diagnosis of the surface height from a boussinesq model, which can be reasonably straightforward as described by greatbatch (1994), still represents an added step beyond that needed for running the prognostic boussinesq model. a more satisfying approach is to employ a non-boussinesq algorithm so that the sea level computed in the numerical model is influenced by steric effects, and so corresponds directly to that measured by observations. huang et al. (2001), deszoeke and samelson (2002) and marshall et al. (2003) discuss how the equations for a boussinesq fluid written in z -coordinates are isomorphic to a non-boussinesq fluid written in pressure coordinates. this isomorphism facilitates a clean and efficient mapping between discrete representations of these two fluids using the same numerical algorithm. further discussion on these matters is provided in chapter 6.
What are the diseases that prevale during floods?
the prevalence of disease during extreme events such as fl oods increases greatly. these diseases include diarrhoea, dysentery, acute respiratory infection, fever, skin diseases and eye infections
floods, waterlogging and extreme temperatures affect human health, local health infrastructure and routine health care services. the prevalence of disease during extreme events such as fl oods increases greatly. these diseases include diarrhoea, dysentery, acute respiratory infection, fever, skin diseases and eye infections (box 3). one study shows that 191,867 people in dhaka were admitted to different hospitals for treatment during the 1998 fl ood.(22) of these, 284 died. another study undertaken by the bangladesh ngo brac shows that 10,217 people in 10 out of 22 thanas had suffered from diarrhoea during the 1998 fl ood.(23) it should be noted that in the same month in a normal year, the fi gure for those affected by diarrhoea is reported to be half.
How long does the plug-flow reactor take to reach equilibrium?
the plug-flow reactor subjected to a step load of a conservative substance reaches a new equilibrium concentration after a time equal to 1 th
How long does the complete-mix reactor to reach 95% of equilibrium concentration?
3 th being required for the concentration in the reactor to reach 95% of the equilibrium concentration
What are some implications of the longer time needed for the complete-mix reactor to reach equilibrium?
this larger time can be fundamental for sustaining the system or for corrective operational control measures to be taken. also in this case the larger volumes usually found in the complete-mix reactors contribute to a greater stability in the system
toxic substances with step increase the plug-flow reactor subjected to a step load of a conservative substance reaches a new equilibrium concentration after a time equal to 1 th. in the same period, the complete-mix reactor reaches only 63% of the equilibrium concentration, 3 th being required for the concentration in the reactor to reach 95% of the equilibrium concentration. this larger time can be fundamental for sustaining the system or for corrective operational control measures to be taken. also in this case the larger volumes usually found in the complete-mix reactors contribute to a greater stability in the system.
CO2 concentration will increase or not?
second, the crop simulations did not consider the effect of increased atmospheric co2 concentration on crop yields. however, we should not expect the increased atmospheric co2 concentration to offset the adverse effect of temperature increase on millet and sorghum yields, because they are both c4 plants
Water stress is better or worse?
photosynthesis rates for c4 plants do not respond strongly to higher ambient co2, although water stress resistance can be slightly improved as a result of lower stomatal conductance and greater intercellular co2 concentration (leakey 2009 long et al 2006a 2006b 
What is the impact of the meters differences?
indeed, rainfed millet and sorghum are often grown along toposequences with differences in elevation of a few metres. this natural rainfall harvesting can lead to differentiation in soil properties and hydrological conditions, which in turn may affect crop performance and yield. in summary, we have attempted to perform a consistent assessment of climate change impacts on crop yields in west africa by accounting for uncertainties in future climate scenarios
second, the crop simulations did not consider the effect of increased atmospheric co2 concentration on crop yields. however, we should not expect the increased atmospheric co2 concentration to offset the adverse effect of temperature increase on millet and sorghum yields, because they are both c4 plants. photosynthesis rates for c4 plants do not respond strongly to higher ambient co2, although water stress resistance can be slightly improved as a result of lower stomatal conductance and greater intercellular co2 concentration (leakey 2009 long et al 2006a 2006b ). indeed, comparison between crop simulations where co2 is increasing, or is kept constant in the future, shows very little difference amongst millet yield changes in africa under several climate change scenarios (berg et al 2013 ). finally, our simulations considered only one representative soil for the entire sudanian and sahelian savanna, while in reality soil properties might vary across the region. indeed, rainfed millet and sorghum are often grown along toposequences with differences in elevation of a few metres. this natural rainfall harvesting can lead to differentiation in soil properties and hydrological conditions, which in turn may affect crop performance and yield. in summary, we have attempted to perform a consistent assessment of climate change impacts on crop yields in west africa by accounting for uncertainties in future climate scenarios. the adverse role of higher temperature on crop yield is a robust result, irrespective of rainfall changes, and seems to be modulated across millet and sorghum varieties and across regions in west africa. this points to the need for further work on identifying varieties that are more resilient to elevated mean temperature during the growing period.
What do the algorithms retrieve?
the algorithms then retrieve monthly climate data and elevation values for a location from the corresponding grid cell plus eight surrounding cells
What does the program use initially to estimate values between midpoints?
the program first uses bilinear interpolation to estimate values between midpoints of the four neighbor grids to generate a seamless surface for each monthly climate variables, avoiding step-artifacts at grid boundaries
How many possible pairs are used?
the climate and elevation values of the nine cells are used to calculate differences in a climate variable and in elevation between all 36 possible pairs
instead of using the midpoint values of each grid cell to represent its entire area, we used a combination of bilinear interpolation and local elevation adjustment approaches to downscale the baseline monthly grid data (4 x 4 km) to scale-free point data. the program first uses bilinear interpolation to estimate values between midpoints of the four neighbor grids to generate a seamless surface for each monthly climate variables, avoiding step-artifacts at grid boundaries. the algorithms then retrieve monthly climate data and elevation values for a location from the corresponding grid cell plus eight surrounding cells. the climate and elevation values of the nine cells are used to calculate differences in a climate variable and in elevation between all 36 possible pairs. a simple linear regression of the differences in the climate variable on the difference in elevation is then established, and the slope of the regression is used as the empirical lapse rate for each climate variable at each specific location. as the local regressions are dynamically developed along with locations of inquiry, we call this downscaling method a " dynamic local downscaling " approach. to avoid over-adjustments due to a weak linear relationship, each lapse rate was weighted by the r-square value of the local linear regression. historical, paleo and future anomaly data are also downscaled prior to applying the delta method, using bilinear interpolation to create seamless surfaces. the interpolated anomalies were then added onto the downscaled baseline monthly climate normal data (scale-free) to arrive at the final climate surface at a specified resolution or for point data. with this approach, the original baseline portion (i.e., absolute values for the 1961 - 1990 normal period) of the historical and future climate data were replaced by the scale-free climate data generated by climatena. because elevation-adjusted baseline data generated by climatena typically has much higher spatial resolution than the historical and future climate data, this process preserves the accuracies for both historical and future climate data with respect to accurately representing climate gradients that are driven by local topography (assuming that they will have similar effects in the past and future). however, the approach does not change or improve gcm anomaly projections or the historical anomalies data per se
What are the threats before the mankind on account of the catastrophic changes in the climate?
the war against climate change pitches mankind against a global threat that vastly eclipses that of terrorism, 1 in battles that have already claimed the lives of hundreds of thousands of ordinary men and women from every continent. climate change has led us into an era in which war and conflict are endemic, 2 the widespread extinction of species approaches catastrophic proportions, 3 and whole regions and countries will be lost beneath the swelling seas and the expanding deserts of a rapidly warming world. and the really bad news is that ' the world has only one generation, perhaps two, to save itself
Where has the climate change led us to ?
climate change has led us into an era in which war and conflict are endemic
How do we all know that the climate is changing ?
we all instinctively know, already, that the climate is changing, from the small noticed things like the unseasonable patterns of the flowering of plants, the falling of snow and the growing in strength of the wind and the rain
the war against climate change pitches mankind against a global threat that vastly eclipses that of terrorism, 1 in battles that have already claimed the lives of hundreds of thousands of ordinary men and women from every continent. climate change has led us into an era in which war and conflict are endemic, 2 the widespread extinction of species approaches catastrophic proportions, 3 and whole regions and countries will be lost beneath the swelling seas and the expanding deserts of a rapidly warming world. and the really bad news is that ' the world has only one generation, perhaps two, to save itself ' 4 we all instinctively know, already, that the climate is changing, from the small noticed things like the unseasonable patterns of the flowering of plants, the falling of snow and the growing in strength of the wind and the rain. with this knowledge comes a growing apprehension of danger. deep down, in quiet moments, we ask ourselves questions that a year or two ago were unthinkable:
What is equilibrium climate senstivity according to the text?
the equilibrium climate sensitivity may be expressed as the ratio of the radiative forcing and the climate feedback parameter
How do we determine the distribution for radiative forcing
a distribution for radiative forcing is derived similarly, using calculations based on observed concentrations of greenhouse gases, aerosols, ozone, and natural factors such as solar input and volcanic stratospheric aerosols
the climate sensitivity is a key measure of the global mean temperature response of a climate model. the equilibrium climate sensitivity may be expressed as the ratio of the radiative forcing and the climate feedback parameter. the time-dependent version of the formula has been exploited to compute the effective climate feedback parameter from the historical trend in ocean heat uptake (interchangeable with the top-of-atmosphere flux imbalance), the historical radiative forcing and the historical temperature change12. the study uses independent observations to derive distributions representing the uncertainty in global mean temperature trends and heat uptake. a distribution for radiative forcing is derived similarly, using calculations based on observed concentrations of greenhouse gases, aerosols, ozone, and natural factors such as solar input and volcanic stratospheric aerosols. the internal model parameters are then sampled from these distributions and the model is evaluated to give an ensemble of climate sensitivity estimates. this is mathematically equivalent to varying the model parameters widely and then weighting the parameters using their observed and calculated estimates (with some statistical assumptions). thus the distribution of the climate sensitivity is constrained by the observations (fig. 2). the main strength of the approach is in its simplicity in exploiting the global mean energy balance to produce a distribution of a key climate parameter, the climate sensitivity. because of this simplicity it is relatively easy to perform sensitivity tests to see which of the model parameters is most influential in determining the relatively wide spread found in the study. this turns out to be the estimate of the radiative forcing: if, for example, the standard deviation of the forcing distribution could be halved then the fifth percentile of the climate sensitivity distribution would increase from 1.6 degc to 2.5 degc. unfortunately the method produces a relatively weak constraint on the distribution, particularly on the upper tail. this is because the climate sensitivity estimated in this way involves a ratio of temperatures to fluxes and the denominator can get close to zero. (in fact, the distribution of the denominator in the equation for climate sensitivity admits negative values, leading to unrealistic negative climate sensitivities and a singularity that means that technically the distributions are not probability density functions (pdfs) -- a similar problem is found in ref. 13 and is discussed in refs 14-18). a further obvious drawback is that the method is only good for producing estimates of the global climate sensitivity (and feedback parameter) and such distributions can be sensitive to previous assumptions for the distributions of parameters, which has been the subject of debate in the literature16,19. different estimates of the pdfs of the climate sensitivity have also been published20 and other studies have used reconstructions of climate from before the observational record21,22. a review of palaeoclimate estimates has also been performed23. the climate sensitivity is one of the most studied and quantified climateprojection-related variables. this is partly because model simulations suggest that it can be used to scale regional patterns of change24 and partly because of a historical attachment of climate modellers to
How to identify and understand Mines?
the two frameworks are meant to help identify and understand this, and reflect on possibilities and barriers, also in anticipating future developments and exercising leadership that reckons with strategic and societal concerns
What showed application of the frameworks to the climate change?
the application of the frameworks to the climate change issue showed that mnes from different industries are developing different kinds of fsas. moreover, the types of organizational processes that are set in motion involve the development of green fsas for some firms and the change of key fsas for others
Is  there any compelling reason to develop FSAs internally in managing climate change.?
there is no compelling reason to develop fsas internally in managing climate change
mnes may be able to learn at various fronts, from the issue itself as well as from the way in which it is being dealt with in a range of countries and industries. the two frameworks are meant to help identify and understand this, and reflect on possibilities and barriers, also in anticipating future developments and exercising leadership that reckons with strategic and societal concerns. managers may want to include this in their consideration of risks and rewards of investing in fsas, and policymakers to better understand how csas can be shaped and firms be (in)directely induced to invest in fsas. the application of the frameworks to the climate change issue showed that mnes from different industries are developing different kinds of fsas. moreover, the types of organizational processes that are set in motion involve the development of green fsas for some firms and the change of key fsas for others. still we can conclude that, as it currently stands, climate-induced fsa development may lead to a more radical, competence-destroying fsa reconfiguration for a few industries only; most mnes stay relatively close to their current activities. a strategic reorientation is most likely to occur in the oil gas and automotive industries but will not happen in the short run. a reason for this is that mnes in these industries do not agree on the type of technology that will prevail in coming years, and most firms thus first invest in competence-enhancing transition technologies thereby still relying on existing fsa configurations. it can be observed that climate change as a source of competitive advantage is likely to occur in high-salience industries such as the ones mentioned above, that is, those most confronted with the climate issue. in addition, continuous reflection on fsa development via internal investments (dynamic capabilities) also seems important for firms specialized in good or services that are instrumental to mitigating climate change impacts, or to anticipating, influencing or responding to public policy developments. for the remaining firms, climate change appears not to become a main source of profitability and growth, even though they may obtain legitimacy from acting visibly and credibly in the field of climate change. for them, there is no compelling reason to develop fsas internally in managing climate change. their route for addressing the issue is likely to go through external markets, for example, purchasing greener and productivity-enhancing technologies, adopting externally-developed tools and routines (such as on mitigation, emissions trading, measurement
Recession up to Which  degree Celsius in yield growth?
yield growth increases gradually with temperature up to 29-32deg celsius are from regression models with county-fixed effects
what are the Identifies effects of temperature?
in contrast, a cross-sectional analysis identifies temperature effects by using only variations between counties with different climates
Which scenario predict equivalent yield impacts?
predict nearly equal yield impacts under hadley iii climate-change scenarios
the results described in yield growth increases gradually with temperature up to 29-32deg celsius are from regression models with county-fixed effects, which identify temperature effects on yields using within-county time-series weather variation. although random variation is useful from a statistical standpoint, such analysis accounts only for grower adaptation in response to current-year weather (e.g., additional use of irrigation in a dry year), and not for systematic cropor variety-switching in anticipation of a different climate. in contrast, a cross-sectional analysis identifies temperature effects by using only variations between counties with different climates. both the cross-section and the time series give results comparable with the baseline model that pools weather and climate variations. in particular, the cross-sectional and time-series estimates show the same characteristic nonlinear temperature relationship, similar optimal temperatures, and predict nearly equal yield impacts under hadley iii climate-change scenarios.
what can you visit in chester?
in half-timbered chester the tudor period can be visited
what can you visit in Bath?
in bath that of the georgian age
where can you find other free ebooks?
more free ebooks http://fast-file.blogspot.com
every city has its own scale, form and history, written in the materials of which it is built, and the streets, and doors and windows, and places with which it has been woven into a landscape over time. where a great town or city flowered in a particular era it makes sense to try and preserve the authenticity of its greatest age(s) to maintain for the city a unique selling point for visitors and preserve for posterity a living museum piece of that age. thus, in half-timbered chester the tudor period can be visited, or in bath that of the georgian age. to spoil the unique historic feeling of such places would appear to be an act of vandalism not only for the visitors but also for the ordinary residents who may well have moved to a city for its particular historic setting and ambience. more free ebooks http://fast-file.blogspot.com
What is the solution proposed?
as a solution we propose here the relaxation of the long waves in the domain to those of the driving fields with a spectral nudging technique
What causes the model to freely develop small-scale variability?
nudging only the long waves allows the model to freely develop small-scale variability, and this maintains the utility of the nested model technique as a climate downscaling tool
What is the drawback to this model?
as a drawback, the effect of small scales on the large-scale flow is greatly diminished, as the large scales are constantly relaxed toward the external fields
as a solution we propose here the relaxation of the long waves in the domain to those of the driving fields with a spectral nudging technique waldron et al. 1996; von storch et al. 2000; miguez-macho et al. 2004]. we conducted the same experiments with nudging of the longest waves in the domain, and the dependence on geometry and size is virtually eliminated. nudging only the long waves allows the model to freely develop small-scale variability, and this maintains the utility of the nested model technique as a climate downscaling tool. as a drawback, the effect of small scales on the large-scale flow is greatly diminished, as the large scales are constantly relaxed toward the external fields. this does not represent a serious limitation, because the large scales are provided by the boundary conditions, and the regional model is not meant to modify them significantly. in the last part of the study we assess the effect of the procedure on small scale features, by contrasting the spectral nudging technique with conventional nudging methods in the interior of the domain that damp the short scales already not present in the driving fields. the paper is organized as follows: section 2 describes the model and the setup used for the experiments. section 3 presents results for the experiments for different variations of the domain, and analyzes biases. section 4 briefly discusses the spectral nudging procedure and shows results for the same experiments as in section 3 but with the nudging of the large scales activated. section 5 examines the small-scale variability created by the model with spectral nudging of the long waves, and compares results to conventional nudging techniques in the interior of the domain. section 6 summarizes results and presents conclusions.
How was the sampling taken for the study on Socio-economic vulnerability and adaptation to environmental risk ?
 a stratified sampling procedure was used where 32 villages were chosen based op their distance from the river meghna (figure 2). in each of these 32 villages every fifth house along one side of the main village road was selected in the sample. the questionnaire consists of five sections, two general sections and three sections designed for specific occupational activities (including household production and consumption patterns). hence, each respondent answered three sections: a general introductory section, including questions about respondent demographic and socio-economic characteristics, a section specifically dealing with flood and flood control issues, and an occupational section
What were the flood related questions aimed at?
the flood related questions are aimed at examining the extent and nature of the impacts of flooding on life and livelihood (including inundation frequency and depth, health related impacts and damage costs) and floodplain residents' perceptions regarding the management and funding of a proposed flood alleviation scheme in the area
What did the semi-structured questionnaire cover and who else were also interviewed?
the semi-structured questionnaire covered the impact of flooding on different occupational groups, coping mechanisms during and after a flood, and information regarding household activities during normal and extreme flood years. besides some quantitative information, the key informant interviews were primarily qualitative in nature. where necessary interviews were adapted to different professional backgrounds of the interviewee. local primary school teachers, leaders from fishing communities, agricultural extension officials, health workers and ngo workers were interviewed
socio-economic vulnerability and adaptation to environmental risk 6 each interview lasted on average 30 minutes. a stratified sampling procedure was used where 32 villages were chosen based op their distance from the river meghna (figure 2). in each of these 32 villages every fifth house along one side of the main village road was selected in the sample. the questionnaire consists of five sections, two general sections and three sections designed for specific occupational activities (including household production and consumption patterns). hence, each respondent answered three sections: a general introductory section, including questions about respondent demographic and socio-economic characteristics, a section specifically dealing with flood and flood control issues, and an occupational section. for a more detailed description of the survey design, the interested reader is referred to haque et al. (forthcoming). the flood related questions are aimed at examining the extent and nature of the impacts of flooding on life and livelihood (including inundation frequency and depth, health related impacts and damage costs) and floodplain residents' perceptions regarding the management and funding of a proposed flood alleviation scheme in the area. in addition to the household survey, 45 semi-structured key informant interviews were carried out from the second week of april to the second week of may 2005. on average, each key informant interview lasted for one and a half hours. the semi-structured questionnaire covered the impact of flooding on different occupational groups, coping mechanisms during and after a flood, and information regarding household activities during normal and extreme flood years. besides some quantitative information, the key informant interviews were primarily qualitative in nature. where necessary interviews were adapted to different professional backgrounds of the interviewee. local primary school teachers, leaders from fishing communities, agricultural extension officials, health workers and ngo workers were interviewed. the interviews were conducted by local college teachers, who were very knowledgeable about and familiar with the specific local situation and circumstances, and well informed and trained about the main objectives of the interviews. finally, in a small-scale survey carried out six months after the original survey (in november 2005), face-to-face follow-up interviews were conducted with eighty-nine randomly selected respondents who also participated in the original large-scale rural household survey (13% of the original sample population). in this follow-up survey, respondents were asked more specifically about the type of preventive measures they take to protect themselves against flooding and the reasons why a large proportion of the sample population does not take any preventive measures. also these results will be reported here and are used in the overall analysis.
Define PMP values?
pmp values are, in principle, most dependent upon atmospheric moisture, transport of moisture into storms, persistent upward motion, and strong winds where orographic uplift is important wmo 2009; trenberth et al ., 2003
What is the generic approach?
the general approach, using data and physical judgment, is to estimate the precipitation that would occur if all the relevant factors in a particular place and situation achieved their optimum values simultaneously and remained in place for the speci fi ed duration over the basin area
What are the factors be reviewed?
we review the factors below. a. convergence and vertical motion in past analyses, estimation of the maximum value of horizontal low-level wind convergence and upward motion
pmp values are, in principle, most dependent upon atmospheric moisture, transport of moisture into storms, persistent upward motion, and strong winds where orographic uplift is important wmo 2009; trenberth et al ., 2003]. the general approach, using data and physical judgment, is to estimate the precipitation that would occur if all the relevant factors in a particular place and situation achieved their optimum values simultaneously and remained in place for the speci fi ed duration over the basin area. we review the factors below. a. convergence and vertical motion in past analyses, estimation of the maximum value of horizontal low-level wind convergence and upward motion
What percentage of Earth's land surface is currently cultivated for crops or grazed?
the uncertainties in climate change projections that arise from responses of natural ecosystems to climate change may be substantiallymodifiedbyconsiderationofmoredirect interactions of humans with ecosystems. for example, more than 30% of earth's land surface is currently cultivated for crops or grazed, with upward of 40% of global npp appropriated by humans (136, 137
What is expected to depend significantly on human activities?
it is therefore reasonable to expect that ecosystem responses to climate change will depend significantly on human activities
In the given example, what would the response of humans likely be to significant losses in crop yields due to climate change?
for example, if climate change causes significant losses in crop yields, humans will likely respond by converting more forested land to agriculture
the uncertainties in climate change projections that arise from responses of natural ecosystems to climate change may be substantiallymodifiedbyconsiderationofmoredirect interactions of humans with ecosystems. for example, more than 30% of earth's land surface is currently cultivated for crops or grazed, with upward of 40% of global npp appropriated by humans (136, 137). it is therefore reasonable to expect that ecosystem responses to climate change will depend significantly on human activities. to date, few models of ecosystem feedbacks have considered the interactive role of other human activities, and therefore the contribution of these interactions to climate change uncertainty is not well understood. in some cases, human activity will likely increase the uncertainty associated with ecosystem feedbacks. for example, if climate change causes significant losses in crop yields, humans will likely respond by converting more forested land to agriculture. the degree to which this occurs represents an added source of uncertainty to climate projections. but human interactions may reduce other sources of uncertainty. as an extreme example, the response of forests in the brazilian amazon to climate change and elevated co2 would become irrelevant if the area is entirely deforested for reasons unrelated to climate change. below, we focus on a few examples of human interactions that may be important for estimating ecosystem feedbacks and associated uncertainties.
How is collected yard waste, stover and switchgrass transported to the pyrolysis facility?
in a heavy duty diesel truck with no backhaul
What distance does the truck transport the finished biochar product?
15 km
What is the final moisture content of the biomass?
5
feedstock transport to the pyrolysis facility. the collected yard waste, stover, and switchgrass are transported to the pyrolysis facility in a heavy duty diesel truck with no backhaul. the truck is assumed to make a return trip loaded with the finished biochar product and is accounted for in the biochar application process. the distance transported is variable, however, a baseline of 15 km is used for comparisons based on the requirements for a pyrolysis plant processing 10 t hr-1 (13). the average transport distance of 15 km is calculated by mccarl et al 13 from the amount of feedstock required to fuel the plant (including 5% losses in transport and storage) and the crop yield based on an assumed corn density of 20% in midwestern us states. biomass pre-processing. the feedstock is transported and stored at the pyrolysis facility where it is pre-processed and pyrolyzed. for pre-processing, the biomass is reduced in size by shredding and dried to a final moisture content of 5% (wet basis). the biomass size reduction energy is from a recent study of knife mill size reduction of lengthy straw/stalk biomass such as
And in the summer of 1988, how big is the average seasonal component of REOF?
this is in contrast with the summer of 1988, when reof 4 has a relatively small seasonal mean component, and is instead characterized by a large subseasonal component dominated by a negative event during june of that year at the height of the drought
the results (middle panels of fig. 7) show that the leading subseasonal reofs do at times have a substantial seasonal mean component, so that the total monthly variance associated with each reof (right panels of fig. 7) exhibits considerable month-to-month persistence during some summers. a key example is the summer of 1993 when reof 4 has a (positive) seasonal mean that dominates the total variance (figure 7 second row from bottom), so that the seasonal peak in july during the most intense flooding over the central united states, is a relatively smaller subseasonal fluctuation on top of the seasonal mean. this is in contrast with the summer of 1988, when reof 4 has a relatively small seasonal mean component, and is instead characterized by a large subseasonal component dominated by a negative event during june of that year at the height of the drought.
What does Modeled clouds that are systematically too low and thin, together with an overrepresentation of clouds with lower CWP, suggest?
modeled clouds that are systematically too low and thin, together with an overrepresentation of clouds with lower cwp, suggest an underestimation of cloud attenuation of solar radiation reaching the surface
What does the low bias for lowest cloud-base heights imply?
the low bias for lowest cloud-base heights would likewise imply a slightly higher downwelling longwave radiation due to warmer cloud-base temperatures, all else being correct
What is the story behind the radiation errors?
the story behind the radiation errors is instead one of compensating and overcompensating errors in the models
distinguished by phase, the modeled frequencies of high iwp and medium lwp are generally underestimated. modeled clouds that are systematically too low and thin, together with an overrepresentation of clouds with lower cwp, suggest an underestimation of cloud attenuation of solar radiation reaching the surface. the low bias for lowest cloud-base heights would likewise imply a slightly higher downwelling longwave radiation due to warmer cloud-base temperatures, all else being correct. neither of these expected effects, however, seems to be the case. the story behind the radiation errors is instead one of compensating and overcompensating errors in the models. in summary,
what was the impacts of UNFCCC?
the unfccc costs are for impacts that consider incremental improvements in health and economic development, but not explicit measures that might be implemented in response to the threat of climate change
what kind of informations for the countries?
the methods used to generate the unfccc health costs were based on the best available information at the time for developing countries
how many comprehensive study could have been undertaken?
this evidence base is still very limited and it is difficult to see how a more comprehensive study could have been undertaken in the short timeframe available
in conclusion, the unfccc costs are an under-estimation of the total 'health sector' costs because of all the activities, diseases and countries that are not included in these estimates. the unfccc costs are for impacts that consider incremental improvements in health and economic development, but not explicit measures that might be implemented in response to the threat of climate change. the methods used to generate the unfccc health costs were based on the best available information at the time for developing countries. this evidence base is still very limited and it is difficult to see how a more comprehensive study could have been undertaken in the short timeframe available. there are many uncertainties in the unfccc health costs, and the most important of these are summarised in table 4.3.
what is the lesson from the last 50 years of agricultural policy?
the lesson from the last 50 years of agricultural policy is that use of broad-based commodity policy to fight rural poverty is an extremely blunt instrument
what is the goal of  agricultural policy ?
a goal could be to target income assistance far more carefully to disadvantaged people in rural areas--many of whom are not actually farmers on any significant scale
what did The 1996 farm legislation eliminate ?
the 1 996 farm legislation eliminated most of these elements recognizing the basic dilemma the programs have faced and replacing them with payments that ultimately were to be phased out after seven years
commodity policy and adjustment assistance the lesson from the last 50 years of agricultural policy is that use of broad-based commodity policy to fight rural poverty is an extremely blunt instrument. these payments often end up disproportionately in the hands of the wealthiest farmers. a goal could be to target income assistance far more carefully to disadvantaged people in rural areas--many of whom are not actually farmers on any significant scale. tying aid to the business of farming also tends merely to inflate the value of assets (mainly land) tied to farming. ultimately, the next generation of farmers pays a higher price for the land and faces a higher cost structure than if the payments had not been in place. this situation sets the stage for another income crisis when inevitable commodity price variability leads to a downturn in prices. the 1 996 farm legislation eliminated most of these elements recognizing the basic dilemma the programs have faced and replacing them with payments that ultimately were to be phased out after seven years. stress in the farm sector as a result of low prices for many commodities over the past few years has put pressure on legislators to revive elements of the previous farm programs.
How many references did the search provide?
the search yielded 1371 references
What were the prerequisites to be included in the database?
to be included in our database, studies had to quantitatively compare litter mass loss (using litterbags) in field experiments in both soil fauna excluded and soil fauna present treatments
How was the experimental treatment set up?
the experimental treatment with less (fauna excluded) and more (fauna present) soil animals were set up using either contrasted litterbag mesh sizes (fine vs. coarse) or chemical agents (dose vs. control
we synthesised studies that evaluated the effects of soil fauna exclusion on litter decomposition. searches were conducted using the isi web of knowledge (http://apps.isiknowledge.com) on 5th november 2012, with no restriction on publication year. the search yielded 1371 references. in addition, we also screened previous reviews about the topic such as seastedt (1984), cepeda-pizarro (1993) and kampichler bruckner (2009). to be included in our database, studies had to quantitatively compare litter mass loss (using litterbags) in field experiments in both soil fauna excluded and soil fauna present treatments. the experimental treatment with less (fauna excluded) and more (fauna present) soil animals were set up using either contrasted litterbag mesh sizes (fine vs. coarse) or chemical agents (dose vs. control). see appendix s1 for details on the term combinations used in the literature searching and the selection criteria followed to include studies in our review.
What contribution does the Ceonozoic era have?
the cenozoic era contributes to assessment of the dangerous level of human interference with climate
What is the rate of human made change of the atmosphere?
the rate of human-made change of atmospheric co2 amount is now several orders of magnitude greater than slow geological changes
the cenozoic era contributes to assessment of the dangerous level of human interference with climate. however, implications become clearer after discussion of the precise empirical evaluation of climate sensitivity provided by recent milankovic climate oscillations and consideration of potential rates of ice sheet disintegration. on time scales of millions of years, is uncertain. but that is an academic question. the rate of human-made change of atmospheric co2 amount is now several orders of magnitude greater than slow geological changes. humans now control atmospheric composition, for better or worse, and surely will continue to do so, as long as the species survives.
What levels are the effects of climate variability and climate change observed at?
population, community and ecosystem levels
What will fish experience as temperatures warm beyond the range of adaptation?
decreased aerobic function, leading to relocation or death
What is an example of selection for particular kinds of behaviour (which may or may not be inherited)?
the "school-mix feedback" hypothesis of bakun
the effects of climate variability and climate change are generally observed at population, community and ecosystem levels, but these are largely the outcomes of processes acting on individuals. the response of individuals to changes in their (biological, physical and chemical) environment and their ability to adapt to such changes are a necessary part of understanding and predicting responses at higher levels of organisation. in general it is not easy to evaluate whether exploitation can alter sensitivity to in general it is not easy to evaluate whether exploitation can alter sensitivity to climate variability and change at the individual level. selection (both fishing selection and genetic selection) operates on individuals, but the consequences are observed in changes in the frequency of population characteristics. fishing is unlikely, therefore, to have a strong influence on the responses of individuals to climate forcing, other than to remove individuals with certain characteristics from the gene pool thereby changing the genetic make-up of the population and the population response to climate forcing (see section 3). an example of selection for particular kinds of behaviour (which may or may not be inherited) is the "school-mix feedback" hypothesis of bakun (2001; see also alheit and bakun, this volume). the responses of individuals can be studied experimentally and their physiology, the responses of individuals can be studied experimentally and their physiology, life history, energy utilisation and behaviour provide basic explanations for observed higher level patterns. for example, a density gradient can be used to determine the level at which eggs will float in a stratified water column. in the baltic, where salinities are low and the deeper, denser water masses are often anoxic, this information can be used to predict how egg survival may be affected by climate-induced changes in density structure and oxygenation (nissling et al., 1998; hinrichsen et al., 2002). thermal tolerances of marine fishes are set by the capacities of the circulatory and respiratory systems to match 5 5 accepted version 2007 sept. journal of marine systems - globec special issue the cellular demand for oxygen (portner and knust, 2007). as temperatures warm beyond the range of adaptation, fish will experience decreased aerobic function, leading to relocation or death. larger individuals are likely to be more sensitive to this effect, reaching temperature-dependent aerobic limits sooner than smaller individuals (portner and knust, 2007). the limits of tolerance in relation to all relevant environmental factors (temperature, salinity, oxygen, etc) can be used to construct "bioclimate envelopes" within which the species can survive (pearson and dawson, 2003). the physiological bases for climate effects (via temperature, co2 and oxygen) on marine organisms and ecosystems are reviewed by portner (2006). these tolerances may define limits for predicting how individual species are likely to respond to climate trends, at least over less-than-evolutionary time scales. experimental studies (including large-scale field experiments) of the effects of experimental studies (including large-scale field experiments) of the effects of factors which are influenced by climate are the main tool for understanding and predicting consequences of climate variability and change on agriculture (e.g. porter and semenov, 2005), but are rare for aquatic ecosystems and species. this is partly because it is difficult to conduct controlled experiments in marine systems. nevertheless, there is scope for learning more from well-designed experiments and the progress of aquaculture may advance understanding.
Which type of change can make a large contribution to increasing social well-being?
well-maintained public transportation systems, such as busses, can make a large contribution to increasing social well-being through improved convenience, less congestion, cleaner air and social contacts
Which kinds of development priorities are taken In the area of transportation?
in the area of transportation, development priorities are focused on increased mobility, creating new infrastructure, and on health, air pollution and security of oil supply
What are the major obstacles to moving towards a sustainable transport system?
major obstacles to moving towards a sustainable transport system are the complexities of securing sustainable biofuel production in many countries (i.e. avoiding the massive use of subsidies to support unsustainable solutions), lack of political will to give priority to the large part of the population without cars, and the up-front investments in good public transport systems
in the area of transportation, development priorities are focused on increased mobility, creating new infrastructure, and on health, air pollution and security of oil supply. both development and climate can benefit by changing fuels (biofuel or natural gas), introducing more efficient vehicles, promoting public transportation and bicycles, and adapting city models (ng and schipper, 2005). well-maintained public transportation systems, such as busses, can make a large contribution to increasing social well-being through improved convenience, less congestion, cleaner air and social contacts. excellent examples exist in bogota and other latin american mega-cities (hidalgo, 2003; wri/embarq, 2006). avoiding lock-in into a car infrastructure is a prerequisite for such a public transport policy. this means that better integration of city planning, urban transport and environmental policy is a key condition to achieve these benefits. the brazilian bioethanol and biodiesel experience (moreira et al., 2005; ribeiro and abreu, 2008) shows the importance of consistent government policies, a sizeable scale of production, and the of flexible fuel vehicles by the automobile industry, as key success factors for the of biofuels. major obstacles to moving towards a sustainable transport system are the complexities of securing sustainable biofuel production in many countries (i.e. avoiding the massive use of subsidies to support unsustainable solutions), lack of political will to give priority to the large part of the population without cars, and the up-front investments in good public transport systems.
Define Global Monthly Fire Location Product ?
the global monthly fire location product (mcd14ml) contains the geographic location (latitude and longitude), date (at the daily interval) and detection confidence (0-100%) for fires detected by the terra and aqua modis combined
Which fires were used in this study?
only the fires with 100% detection confidence from 2001 through 2008 were used in this study
How detection were accumulated?
detections were accumulated for each 0.25 u grid cell to derive the number of wild land fires per year for direct comparison with the 0.25 u vod product
the global monthly fire location product (mcd14ml) contains the geographic location (latitude and longitude), date (at the daily interval) and detection confidence (0-100%) for fires detected by the terra and aqua modis combined. only the fires with 100% detection confidence from 2001 through 2008 were used in this study. detections were accumulated for each 0.25 u grid cell to derive the number of wild land fires per year for direct comparison with the 0.25 u vod product. for instance, two fires which were detected within the same 0.25 u grid cell on the same day were counted as two wild land fires, as the influences of these two fires combined on the vod observations were expected to be stronger than only one fire.
What does teh core records suggest?
core records, both ice and deep-sea, suggest that the dominant character is that of a red-noise process or random walk
How is the quasiperiodicity governed ?
the quasiperiodicity is then governed by a combination of the collapse threshold, the system memory time scale, and the intensity of the stochastic forcing
What  will the changes in the forcing intensity lead to?
changes in the forcing intensity would lead to a shift in the dominant time scale. some inferred spectral power laws may be inaccurate owing to undersampling of the records
core records, both ice and deep-sea, suggest that the dominant character is that of a red-noise process or random walk. examination of a few typical records supports the inference that the contribution of the milankovitch frequencies to climate change at most represents only a small fraction of total climate variance. most spectral densities are sufficiently ''flat'' that rates of change will be dominated by the highest frequencies present in the forcing. a broad maximum near 100 ky period can be readily rationalized without invoking an oscillator. one need only suppose that there is an approximate threshold beyond which the climate system collapses. the quasiperiodicity is then governed by a combination of the collapse threshold, the system memory time scale, and the intensity of the stochastic forcing. changes in the forcing intensity would lead to a shift in the dominant time scale. some inferred spectral power laws may be inaccurate owing to undersampling of the records.
Why isn';t the percentage of solar energy higher in spain?
71 in a recent gusty period, wind power provided 27% of spain's electricity and, over a year, the contribution was 9%.72 because poor people, especially in rural areas, could be excluded from participation in the use of such technologies because of the high costs and lack of credit
In what ways do you think this percentage could improve?
clean development funds for adaption and mitigation can help facilitate the clean energy transition that must take place on a global scale if development goals are to be met while stabilising the climate
Why do you think think this is important to tend to and bring to the attention of our people?
of course the energy requirements for achieving the mdgs should be seen as a bare minimum component of the larger secure supply of energy that is required for socioeconomic development in general
despite the relative expense, there are a growing number of countries in which a substantial contribution to energy requirements is being met from clean renewable sources. these include the use of photovoltaic systems to provide energy to 50 000 homes of nomads in mongolia and more than 4500 wind generators providing up to 200 watts. in nepal about 1% of households have access to solar energy and nearly 2% to energy from micro hydro-schemes.71 in a recent gusty period, wind power provided 27% of spain's electricity and, over a year, the contribution was 9%.72 because poor people, especially in rural areas, could be excluded from participation in the use of such technologies because of the high costs and lack of credit, clean development funds for adaption and mitigation can help facilitate the clean energy transition that must take place on a global scale if development goals are to be met while stabilising the climate. of course the energy requirements for achieving the mdgs should be seen as a bare minimum component of the larger secure supply of energy that is required for socioeconomic development in general. the indications are that developing countries aspire to a similar standard of living as that enjoyed by countries within the
Which are transmitted by arthropod vectors?
bird haematozoa are transmitted by arthropod vectors
What is affected by ambient temperature?
avian malaria is affected by ambient temperature
Which temperature Plasmodium occurs between?
plasmodium occurs between 16- 30 u c
we found strong relationships of temperature to overall parasite prevalence. to facilitate the discussion, we used the lowland (0- 400 m) and the upland (600-1200 m) distinction of climatic zones, based on forest structure in general, birds inhabiting the lowland areas where temperatures were higher had higher parasite prevalence, whereas species distributed in the upland regions with lower temperatures had lower parasite prevalence. there were similar trends for each genus of parasites surveyed. results for lineage diversity showed that the four genera of parasites were generalist. however, most of the haemoproteus lineages were partially specific to host family. this supports the approach of analysing parasite distribution within each well-sampled family separately. prevalence within each family and within the two well sampled species showed the same trends along the gradient as for overall parasite prevalence, showing that the decrease in prevalence with elevation did not reflect a changing composition of host taxa with elevation. one of the mechanisms that could explain these results is that abundance of vectors is directly related to temperature. bird haematozoa are transmitted by arthropod vectors and ecological factors associated with vector abundance can explain differences in the prevalence of parasite species independently of host [33-36]. studies in the hawaiian islands have shown a negative correlation between abundance of mosquitoes, the main vector for plasmodium and elevation like most vector-borne diseases, transmission of avian malaria is affected by ambient temperature. the onset, duration, and completion of the parasite's development to the infective stage in the vector are determined by temperature. the development of plasmodium occurs between 16- 30 u c, temperatures lower than 16 u c inhibit parasite development, whereas optimal temperatures fluctuate between 28-30 u c other potential blood parasites vectors are ectoparasites that can table 2. parasite prevalence across host families.
Since when has sea level been recorded at Fremantle?
sea level has been recorded at fremantle since 1897, which is the longest in the southern hemisphere
What does SLA stand for?
sea level anomalies (sla
fremantle (32  030s, 115  440e), situated at the southwest coast of the australian continent, is a major port in the indian ocean (figure 1). sea level has been recorded at fremantle since 1897, which is the longest in the southern hemisphere. glacial isostatic adjustment and tectonic contribution to the fremantle sea level are small lambeck 2002], and the effect of local land movements on the sea level variations is negligible (m. eliot and c. pattiaratchi, personal communication, 2003). thus, the fremantle sea level is a useful index for long-term climate variability and climate change research. interannual upper ocean anomalies in the tropical pacific, mostly caused by trade wind variations related to el nin~o/southern oscillation (enso), propagate westward as equatorial rossby waves, and then poleward along the northwest to western australian coast as coastally-trapped waves. these waves transmit deep thermoclines and high coastal sea level anomalies (sla) during la nin~a years and shallow thermoclines and low sla during el nin~o years pariwono et al. 1986; meyers 1996; feng et al. 2003; holgate and woodworth 2004]. this relationship can be understood using vertically integrated momentum equation along the waveguides (figure 1a) at low-frequency, in which the balance between the pressure gradient and wind stress dominates godfrey 1996],
What undergoes a characteristic evolution?
the evolution of the maximum wind of the most intense extratropical storms undergoes a characteristic evolution
What happens at the time of maximum intensification?
at the time of maximum intensification the strongest winds occur in the open warm sector to the right and slightly forward of the center (fig. 5a
After how many hours do you find the strongest winds happening?
at the time of maximum intensity (fig. 5e), occurring some 15 h later, the strongest winds are found in the subsiding region behind the storm
the evolution of the maximum wind of the most intense extratropical storms undergoes a characteristic evolution. at the time of maximum intensification the strongest winds occur in the open warm sector to the right and slightly forward of the center (fig. 5a). at the time of maximum precipitation (fig. 5c), which occurs on average 15 h later, the wind speed has increased and the maximum wind has moved some 45 8 anticlockwise. finally, at the time of maximum intensity (fig. 5e), occurring some 15 h later, the strongest winds are found in the subsiding region behind the storm. a very similar picture occurs for 21c (not shown);
Why is Chinese production is more polluting?
due both to inefficient production systems and a coal-dominated electricity supply
How beneficial is Cheap production in China?
cheap production in china could be globally beneficial in terms of the environment as well, though, particularly in driving down the costs of environmental products like energy-efficient lighting or wind turbines
this is because relative to production in most other countries, chinese production is more polluting, due both to inefficient production systems and a coal-dominated electricity supply (peters and hertwich, 2008a; peters et al., 2007; weber and matthews, 2007). the low-cost of chinese production does benefit most consumers, but this benefit comes at the detriment of both the local chinese environment (streets et al., 2006) and the global environment due to the effects of climate change. cheap production in china could be globally beneficial in terms of the environment as well, though, particularly in driving down the costs of environmental products like energy-efficient lighting or wind turbines. any increased emissions from production of these products in china would likely be outweighed by the positive impacts of their use (see for example (lenzen and munksgaard, 2002)). unfortunately, this potential benefit of cheap chinese production has not yet materialized.
What predictions are compared?
evaluation of the modal formulation is done by comparing its predictions of nd with those of the sectional parameterization
What is considered?
we consider the activation of lognormal aerosol, so both formulations should give the same droplet number (provided the discretization error of the sectional formulation is insignificant
The sectional formulation used how many sections for discretizing the lognormal distribution?
the sectional formulation used 200 sections for discretizing the lognormal distribution
evaluation of the modal formulation is done by comparing its predictions of nd with those of the sectional parameterization. we consider the activation of lognormal aerosol, so both formulations should give the same droplet number (provided the discretization error of the sectional formulation is insignificant). this is shown in figure 3, which depicts the parameterized nd, using the sectional vs. the modal formulation. cases 18 18 considered were for a single mode lognormal aerosol with dp,granging between 0.05 to 0.75um, si ranging between 1.1 to 2.5, and for updraft conditions ranging between v 0.1 to 3.0 ms-1. the sectional formulation used 200 sections for discretizing the lognormal distribution. regardless of activation conditions, the parameterization with modal formulation is as robust as the parameterization with the sectional representation (average error
What the Integration of Species Models Under Climate Change are showing?
integration of species models under climate change some are indeed showing signals of such change in the recent past (for example, allen and others 2010 breshears and others 2005 westerling 2006 ). we assume that the future will bring more droughtrelated stress, more fire, more flooding events, more wind damage, more ice damage (in northern locations), more air pollutants, more disease, insects, and herbivory, more invasive plants, and more timber harvests (at least in some locations
How was the classification with the literature?
with the key literature at hand, we scored each species with default values for each of the biological and disturbance modification factors. these values provide baseline information to which users are encouraged to modify based on local knowledge and site conditions, or with revisions based on updated and more comprehensive literature review
How can be used The ModFac values?
the modfac values can then be used to qualitatively modify, up or down, the projections of the empirically derived distrib model outputs. though the modfacs outputs are not spatially explicit maps, they present the species' overall capability to adapt to the changing conditions predicted with climate change (figure 4 ), and better account for the natural processes that influence the final distribution
integration of species models under climate change some are indeed showing signals of such change in the recent past (for example, allen and others 2010 breshears and others 2005 westerling 2006 ). we assume that the future will bring more droughtrelated stress, more fire, more flooding events, more wind damage, more ice damage (in northern locations), more air pollutants, more disease, insects, and herbivory, more invasive plants, and more timber harvests (at least in some locations). for each species, key literature was reviewed to arrive, for each factor, a score to one of seven classes 3 to +3 very negative to very positive influence) in dealing with expected climate change and associated disturbance impacts (figure 4 ). we also scored for future climate relevance and uncertainty within the knowledge base. with the key literature at hand, we scored each species with default values for each of the biological and disturbance modification factors. these values provide baseline information to which users are encouraged to modify based on local knowledge and site conditions, or with revisions based on updated and more comprehensive literature review. the modfac values can then be used to qualitatively modify, up or down, the projections of the empirically derived distrib model outputs. though the modfacs outputs are not spatially explicit maps, they present the species' overall capability to adapt to the changing conditions predicted with climate change (figure 4 ), and better account for the natural processes that influence the final distribution. modfacs scores may also provide a mechanism to prioritize species when considering management options, for example, which species should be able tolerate particular changing conditions, and which species need management help? thus, for this reason plus the capability to alter scores based on local knowledge and conditions, the approach encourages decision makers to be actively involved in managing tree habitats under projected future climatic conditions. though it might be preferable to have this suite of 21 modfacs variables be assessed spatially via mechanistic modeling, and some such models are moving toward this goal with a few of these variables (he and others 2008 ), we are still a long way from adequately modeling all of these variables interacting on 134 intermingling species across half a continent. instead, this modfacs method allows a mental and qualitative evaluation of all the factors simultaneously, resulting also in an evaluation of
How accurate are the dating and sediment accumulation rates in Esthwaite?
dating accuracy and sediment accumulation rates at this site are sufficiently high
the lack of a signal can be due to which circumstances?
the lack of a signal may be either due to smoothing by bioturbation or to weather patterns related to the nao having a greater influence on water column productivity rather than on algal compositional change
in esthwaite there is no nao signal in the sediment recorded by the diatom assemblages, although such a signal has been identified from the long-term zooplankton data (george et al ., 2004). dating accuracy and sediment accumulation rates at this site are sufficiently high for the nao record to be potentially recognised. the lack of a signal may be either due to smoothing by bioturbation or to weather patterns related to the nao having a greater influence on water column productivity rather than on algal compositional change. as the zooplankton populations appear to be especially sensitive to nao effects (george et al ., 2004) a further measure for the future would be to examine changes in the abundance of cladoceran remains in the esthwaite sediments.
Who produced the most significant investigations into the nature of past interactions between climate change and social organisation?
historians such as emmanuel le roy ladurie, atmospheric scientists such as reid bryson and historical climatologists such as hubert lamb produced the most significant investigations during the 1970s into the nature of past interactions between climate change and social organisation69
By the 1960s, what, in general, had the academic discipline known as geography become suspicious of?
geography - had by the 1960s become suspicious about grand theories of climate-society interaction, particular those tinged with any trace of the old determinist ideology66
Who turned out to be the most willing to re-engage substantively with questions about climate change and human society?
it was in fact a small number of historians and atmospheric scientists, rather than geographers, who were the most willing to re-engage substantively with questions about climate change and human society
the absence of theory about climate-society interactions the previous sections have shown how the academic discipline that had thought the longest and hardest about relationships between climate and society - geography - had by the 1960s become suspicious about grand theories of climate-society interaction, particular those tinged with any trace of the old determinist ideology66. this reaction against the worst excesses of determinism " left geographers without a coherent conception of causality that would 'bridge' the social and natural sciences"67. it also meant that the study of environment-society relationships "became a subject without an academic home, a stateless person in the world of sovereign disciplines"68. it was in fact a small number of historians and atmospheric scientists, rather than geographers, who were the most willing to re-engage substantively with questions about climate change and human society. historians such as emmanuel le roy ladurie, atmospheric scientists such as reid bryson and historical climatologists such as hubert lamb produced the most significant investigations during the 1970s into the nature of past interactions between climate change and social organisation69
What a framework of this type requires?
first, a framework of this type requires an information base on current conditions, including provision for infrastructure and services, and details of environmental hazards and current vulnerabilities to extreme weather
In what, risk and vulnerability assessments at a high level of geographic and sectoral detail can help?
this can help to identify population groups or settlements that are most at risk from climate change, and also particular threats to infrastructure (e.g. water treatment plants or power stations
In what Regional or global networks of citys can help?
regional or global networks of cities can help to facilitate knowledge transfer and awareness of the key principles of adaptation to urban authorities around the world
first, a framework of this type requires an information base on current conditions, including provision for infrastructure and services, and details of environmental hazards and current vulnerabilities to extreme weather. many cities have no such information base or one that does not cover the informal settlements. of particular importance is understanding the impacts of 'small disasters': although infrequently reported (at least in the international media), small floods, landslides, and similar events that are likely to become increasingly prevalent as a result of climate change can have a cumulatively large impact on the lives, health and livelihoods of low-income residents. second, this framework requires risk and vulnerability assessments at a high level of geographic and sectoral detail. this can help to identify population groups or settlements that are most at risk from climate change, and also particular threats to infrastructure (e.g. water treatment plants or power stations). as important as the specific policies proposed above is the creation of mechanisms by which these can be encouraged within each sector and integrated. for example, if an urban centre has a strong local development plan that provides the framework for future investments and land use management, then it is possible to incorporate climate change adaptation measures into this. however, many urban centres have no such plan, or a plan that is outdated, unenforced, or unenforceable. in this regard, the most appropriate policy for ensuring climate change adaptation in urban areas is building the capacity of urban institutions. this can take the form of financial, technical, logistical and legal support to facilitate strategic actions to address climate change that is fully integrated with development and investment plans - the benefits of which have previously been seen in facilitating improvements to service delivery (budds and mcgranahan 2003). regional or global networks of cities can help to facilitate knowledge transfer and awareness of the key principles of adaptation to urban authorities around the world. an integral part of this process is to bring city governments and civil society organisations into a direct dialogue with bilateral and multilateral agencies. another is to bring more attention to adaptation: at present, much of the interest within international networks of cities on climate change is on mitigation, not adaptation. effective urban authorities and other local institutions are key to providing the context in which individuals, households, and communities are able to make their own adaptations to a variety of issues, including socioeconomic risks, disaster risks and climate change risks. the key influence of local governments is not only what they build or invest in, but also in what they encourage, facilitate or prevent other stakeholders to do. because of this, even urban authorities with limited financial capacity can adjust their planning and regulatory framework to support adaptation by households, community organisations, ngos and the private sector (satterthwaite et al. 2007).
Who provided the funding for this paper?
funding was provided by the eu projects eurolimpacs ("european project to evaluate impacts of global change on freshwater ecosystems" gocect-2003-505540), biofresh ("biodiversity of freshwater ecosystems: status, trends, pressures, and conservation priorities". contract 664 no. 226874) and refresh ("adaptive strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate change on european freshwater ecosystems". contract 244121
Who are the authors thankful to for producing the diagrams for the paper?
we also thank stephen maberly and laurence carvalho for the provision of tp data from esthwaite water and loch leven, respectively, yang handong for provision of 210pb data for piburger see and simon turner, cath d'alton and miles irving for producing the diagrams
Who are the authors thankful to for contributing data,  providing comments, and collaborating on the uro-limpacs project?
we thank arni einarsson, ulf hauptfleisch, anders hobaek, dong xuhui, hansjorg thies, monica tolloti, lucas kampf and piero guilizzoni for contributing data to this paper, for their helpful comments on the paper and for their collaboration in the euro-limpacs project
we thank arni einarsson, ulf hauptfleisch, anders hobaek, dong xuhui, hansjorg thies, monica tolloti, lucas kampf and piero guilizzoni for contributing data to this paper, for their helpful comments on the paper and for their collaboration in the euro-limpacs project. we also thank stephen maberly and laurence carvalho for the provision of tp data from esthwaite water and loch leven, respectively, yang handong for provision of 210pb data for piburger see and simon turner, cath d'alton and miles irving for producing the diagrams. funding was provided by the eu projects eurolimpacs ("european project to evaluate impacts of global change on freshwater ecosystems" gocect-2003-505540), biofresh ("biodiversity of freshwater ecosystems: status, trends, pressures, and conservation priorities". contract 664 no. 226874) and refresh ("adaptive strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate change on european freshwater ecosystems". contract 244121)
what is benthic communities?
benthic communities living in shallow-shelf habitats in antarctica 100-m depth) are archaic in structure and function compared to shallow-water communities elsewhere
what is modern predators?
modern predators, including fast-moving, durophagous (skeleton-crushing) bony fish, sharks, and crabs, are rare or absent; slow-moving invertebrates are generally the top predators; and epifaunal suspension feeders dominate many soft-substratum communities
benthic communities living in shallow-shelf habitats in antarctica 100-m depth) are archaic in structure and function compared to shallow-water communities elsewhere. modern predators, including fast-moving, durophagous (skeleton-crushing) bony fish, sharks, and crabs, are rare or absent; slow-moving invertebrates are generally the top predators; and epifaunal suspension feeders dominate many soft-substratum communities. cooling temperatures beginning in the late eocene excluded durophagous predators, ultimately resulting in the endemic living fauna and its unique food-web structure. although the southern ocean is oceanographically isolated, the barriers to biological invasion are primarily physiological rather than geographic. cold temperatures impose limits to performance that exclude modern predators. global warming is now removing those physiological barriers, and crabs are reinvading antarctica. as sea temperatures continue to rise, the invasion of durophagous predators will modernize the shelf benthos and erode the indigenous character of marine life in antarctica.
What  keeping with ideas about socio-technical transitions suggests?
it may be that these relatively overlooked spaces or niches that are the prime sites of change, rather than the intersection of storylines
whilst a more detailed examination of the characteristics of niches is beyond the scope of our discussion here, we suggest that more attention needs to be focused on the multiple sites or complex geographies of innovation and learning in situations of policy convergence. in keeping with ideas about socio-technical transitions, it may be that these relatively overlooked spaces or niches that are the prime sites of change, rather than the intersection of storylines. in cases of policy convergence where policy discourse is relatively harmonious, significant learning and innovation is more likely to emerge, perhaps, not from the 'clash of coalitions' at the grand narrative scale, but rather through political and technical niches.
Development of GCMs show biases in what?
the development of gcms, their output generally shows significant biases in the simulation of both temperature and precipitation under current climate conditions
Name a method to downscale GCM results?
one of the more appealing methods uses a nested regional climate model
What problem does the hydrological model have?
the problem with this approach is that it is extremely computationally intensive and the results inherit biases not only from the global gcm, but also from the regional climate
despite rapid advances in the development of gcms, their output generally shows significant biases in the simulation of both temperature and precipitation under current climate conditions. these biases are often so large that direct application of the modeled meteorology in a macroscale hydrological model is not meaningful (e.g., doherty and mearns, 1999). various methods have been used to downscale gcm results to hydrologically relevant spatial scales. one of the more appealing methods uses a nested regional climate model, which is forced at the boundary by the gcm, and which within its domain resolves spatial scales relevant to the hydrological model. the problem with this approach is that it is extremely computationally intensive and the results inherit biases not only from the global gcm, but also from the regional climate
What is particularly important for Sub-Saharan Africa where climate variability and drought threaten food security?
combining gcms and crop models also provides a tool to assess the impacts of future climate change on crop production
what is difficult about translating GCM outputs into crop yields?
gcm grid boxes are of larger scale than the processes governing yield
What do integrated climate-crop modelling systems, therefore, need?
integrated climate-crop modelling systems, therefore, need to handle appropriately the loss of variability caused by the difference between scales
(hansen et al 2006 ). on the other hand, combining gcms and crop models also provides a tool to assess the impacts of future climate change on crop production (jones and thornton 2003 ). this is particularly important for sub-saharan africa where climate variability and drought threaten food security. however, translating gcm outputs into crop yields is difficult because gcm grid boxes are of larger scale than the processes governing yield, involving partitioning of rain among runoff, evaporation, transpiration, drainage and storage at plot scale (baron et al 2005 ). integrated climate-crop modelling systems, therefore, need to handle appropriately the loss of variability caused by the difference between scales.
What improve domestic competitiveness across the board?
the benefits of revenue recycling, increasing the real wage and lowering the costs of capital
Political feasibility may be influenced as much by desires to maintain levels of what?
economic activity and employment
Free allocations to preserve shareholder value do little to preserve what?
competitiveness
on the other hand, political feasibility may be influenced as much by desires to maintain levels of economic activity and employment than just profits. free allocations to preserve shareholder value do little to preserve competitiveness and deter leakage, since marginal cost pressures are unaffected. updated, output-based allocations lower variable costs, as opposed to fixed costs, and thereby mitigate competitiveness effects, with benefits passed on to consumers, rather than just producers (fischer and fox 2009). however, such instruments can be counterproductive if applied beyond trade-sensitive energy intensive manufacturing to sectors in which higher prices are an effective means for signaling conservation (as in electricity or refined petroleum products). furthermore, it must be emphasized that the benefits of revenue recycling, increasing the real wage and lowering the costs of capital, accrue to all sectors in the economy and improve domestic competitiveness across the board.
What is rather similar?
the typical evolution of intense extratropical cyclones in 20c and 21c is rather similar
What is higher in 21C?
the precipitation intensity is higher in 21c
What is somewhat weaker in 21C?
the maximum wind speed, on the other hand, is somewhat weaker in 21c
the typical evolution of intense extratropical cyclones in 20c and 21c is rather similar, as can be seen from fig. 9a. the precipitation intensity is higher in 21c and the depth of the cyclones slightly deeper if we choose the storms based on the t42 j850 intensities. the maximum wind speed, on the other hand, is somewhat weaker in 21c. we have also examined the cyclones with the strongest precipitation in 20c and 21c (fig. 9b); this shows a larger increase in precipitation between 20c and 21c but a marked reduction in intensity in terms of winds, vorticity, and pressure. consequently, all indications are that the feedback from higher precipitation toward more intense synoptic-scale extratropical cyclones is small
Why did Corsican blue tits have more success than blue tits in continental southern France?
especially in poor evergreen oak habitat in continental southern france, blue tit parents face mismatching between nestling demand and prey availability, forcing them to increase foraging effort beyond their sustainable limit drent and daan, 1980 ), thereby potentially influencing adult survival in these habitats. these negative consequences were not observed in a corsican blue tit population that is nicely adapted to the same
How did the researchers study mistiming in blue tits?
they measured metabolic effort of blue tit parents facing variation in prey availability during the chick stage figure 3 
What problem did the birds have in the evergreen oak habitat?
especially in poor evergreen oak habitat in continental southern france, blue tit parents face mismatching between nestling demand and prey availability, forcing them to increase foraging effort beyond their sustainable limit drent and daan, 1980 ), thereby potentially influencing adult survival in these habitats
mistiming will have consequences, both for the life-histories and population dynamics of birds. a clear example of the consequences of disrupted synchrony between realised and optimal breeding time is that food availability is lower for parents when feeding their young sanz et al. 2003 ). thomas et al. (2001a) have clearly demonstrated the negative consequences of such mistiming for parents. they measured metabolic effort of blue tit parents facing variation in prey availability during the chick stage figure 3 ). especially in poor evergreen oak habitat in continental southern france, blue tit parents face mismatching between nestling demand and prey availability, forcing them to increase foraging effort beyond their sustainable limit drent and daan, 1980 ), thereby potentially influencing adult survival in these habitats. these negative consequences were not observed in a corsican blue tit population that is nicely adapted to the same
What Rent-seeking implies?
rent-seeking' implies extracting value from activities without making any contribution to productivity, and it is usually linked to the misuse of governmental authority
In which way Corruption by a rent-seeking bureaucracy is perpetuating land-use conflicts in Mali?
for instance, in order to open up a new livestock corridor, a jowro has to pay off a number of state technicians and administrators
What one well-informed interviewee in a key position said about the administration advantages?
one well-informed interviewee in a key position said that the administration benefits from the fact that jowros hold only informal positions. as long as they only have informal power, they need the support of the administration in order to be able to manage pastures effectively
'rent-seeking' implies extracting value from activities without making any contribution to productivity, and it is usually linked to the misuse of governmental authority. corruption by a rent-seeking bureaucracy is also perpetuating land-use conflicts in mali. for instance, in order to open up a new livestock corridor, a jowro has to pay off a number of state technicians and administrators. one well-informed interviewee in a key position said that the administration benefits from the fact that jowros hold only informal positions. as long as they only have informal power, they need the support of the administration in order to be able to manage pastures effectively. this support is obtained through payments. 'a jowro who tries to be correct without paying off the administration will never be able to do anything', the interviewee said. the yearly entry of livestock into the delta, the dates of which are discussed at annual conferences and widely announced, is a particularly lucrative business. at this time, herders pay fees per head of livestock to the jowros at the various entry points. on the entry dates, key politicians and public administrators tend to show up to claim their shares of the income. in fact, some jowros are said to distribute all the income from these occasions just to keep the powerful people on their side. this corroborates turner (2006: 61) who states that 'each year virtually all of the money [the jowros] obtain in the form of pasture taxes is spent in the form of bribes'. by distributing these bribes, the jowros establish relations with administrative officers that are indispensable. it has often been stressed to us that the one who pays the most to the administration is also the one who will be most listened to. this also goes for the legal system. benjaminsen ba (2009) report that both sides in a court case they studied complained about all the expenses involved. millions of fcfa were spent by the parties to cover lawyer fees, court fees, and bribes to judges. through receiving payments from both parties, the courts' decisions become ambiguous. this again contributes to perpetuating conflicts. in our research, we have often heard complaints that the rural population has become milch cows for state officials. a judge in the appeal court stated that corruption is an important aspect of this conflict and of farmer-herder conflicts in general in the area. he said: 'i do not have proof of corruption, but these conflicts would have been very easy to solve, so it is not difficult to see.' what is perceived by rural actors as lack of government interest in solving land-use conflicts and the subsequent lack of trust in the government among the rural population can explain why the farmers chose to use violence in this particular case.
What are lags?
lags
What do rainfall and lag have in common?
rainfall over lags
Does temperature have an effect on any variables?
temperature
models for rainfall from exploratory analyses, existing literature and considerations of interpretational difficulty with very long lags, we considered lags (delays in effect) of up to 16 weeks for rainfall. in the initial analyses designed to identify the broad shape of any association, we fitted natural cubic splines (3 df)10to (i) the average rainfall over lags 0-16 and (ii) the average over 0-8 weeks and 9-16 weeks, as separate splines simultaneously included in the model. we also included temperature as a natural cubic spline (3 df) in all models to control confounding, with lag 0-4 weeks, following expectation from published work.3,8,11because initial analyses suggested a broad 'u' shape, we then fitted a double-thresholds model, comprising linear terms for rainfall above and below 'high' and 'low' thresholds, respectively, with no association (i.e. flat) in between.12guided by the spline analysis the low and high rainfall terms were based on the 0-16 and 0-8 week average, respectively. the thresholds were estimated by maximum likelihood. an increase
What is the main idea of this research?
evidence from a north atlantic deep-sea sediment core reveals that the largest climatic perturbation in our present interglacial, the 8200-year event, is marked by two distinct cooling events in the subpolar north atlantic at 8490 and 8290 years ago
What caused such a significant shift in Atlantic Ocean circulation?
an associated reduction in deep flow speed provides evidence of a significant change to a major downwelling limb of the atlantic meridional overturning circulation
Is there a specific region that can be pinpointed to highlight this reduction in deep flow speed?
the existence of a distinct surface freshening signal during these events strongly suggests that the sequenced surface and deep ocean changes were forced by pulsed meltwater outbursts from a multistep final drainage of the proglacial lakes associated with the decaying laurentide ice sheet margin
christopher r. w. ellison,1mark r. chapman,1* ian r. hall2* evidence from a north atlantic deep-sea sediment core reveals that the largest climatic perturbation in our present interglacial, the 8200-year event, is marked by two distinct cooling events in the subpolar north atlantic at 8490 and 8290 years ago. an associated reduction in deep flow speed provides evidence of a significant change to a major downwelling limb of the atlantic meridional overturning circulation. the existence of a distinct surface freshening signal during these events strongly suggests that the sequenced surface and deep ocean changes were forced by pulsed meltwater outbursts from a multistep final drainage of the proglacial lakes associated with the decaying laurentide ice sheet margin.
What is the relationship between spatial variability and temporal variability?
based on the relationship for spatial variability (fig. 1), a negative relationship for temporal variability can be expected; this is the case in many temperate regions, but the relationships are often positive in warmer regions
How will farmers respond to climate change?
we did not explicitly analyze how farmers will respond to climate change, but our results suggest that there is less diversity in farming strategies (which is mainly yield maximization) in higher-yielding regions than in the lower-yielding mediterranean regions
How do farms manage climactic variability?
when risks of higher temperatures and associated droughts are higher, farms need to adapt their management in order to cope with this. apparently, farms tend to find different ways to manage climatic variability, leading to regional farm diversification. regional farm diversity reduces vulnerability at the regional level, as the variety of responses at farm level lead
fig. 2. spatial distribution of the correlation between inter-annual variability in temperature and wheat yield anomalies [r(yield,temp)], and relationships to average temperature (temp, degc) from 1990-2003. based on the relationship for spatial variability (fig. 1), a negative relationship for temporal variability can be expected; this is the case in many temperate regions, but the relationships are often positive in warmer regions. increasing climate variability associated with climate change will mainly decrease the stability of wheat yields in these regions, and adaptation is needed to decrease vulnerability. however, even under climate change, farmers in higher-yielding regions may prefer a higher productivity above a high resilience. the choice for the best strategy depends on farmers' objectives. we did not explicitly analyze how farmers will respond to climate change, but our results suggest that there is less diversity in farming strategies (which is mainly yield maximization) in higher-yielding regions than in the lower-yielding mediterranean regions. considering such results in impact assessment studies will be required to improve estimates of crop responses to climate change that are presently reported to be most negative for mediterranean regions (olesen and bindi 2002, easterling et al. 2007). other studies mention hazard exposure as being an important indicator for successful agricultural adaptation (e.g., downing et al. 2001, smit and skinner 2002). this seems valid for regions regularly exposed to high temperatures. when risks of higher temperatures and associated droughts are higher, farms need to adapt their management in order to cope with this. apparently, farms tend to find different ways to manage climatic variability, leading to regional farm diversification. regional farm diversity reduces vulnerability at the regional level, as the variety of responses at farm level lead
How many competing Drosophila species were manipulative experiments conducted on?
davis et al. [29,30] conducted manipulative experiments on three competing drosophila species and their shared hymenopteran parasitoid in an enclosed laboratory environment along a thermal gradient
How were the manipulative experiments conducted?
each replicate ecosystem included eight cages, housed in pairs in adjacent incubators, connected by tubing to allow movement
How many sets of experiments were run?
two sets of experiments were run: cold gradients with incubators at 10, 15, 20 and 25 8 c, and warm gradients with each incubator set 5 8 c higher
davis et al. [29,30] conducted manipulative experiments on three competing drosophila species and their shared hymenopteran parasitoid in an enclosed laboratory environment along a thermal gradient. each replicate ecosystem included eight cages, housed in pairs in adjacent incubators, connected by tubing to allow movement. two sets of experiments were run: cold gradients with incubators at 10, 15, 20 and 25 8 c, and warm gradients with each incubator set 5 8 c higher. drosophila melanogaster had highest fitness in warmer cages, drosophila simulans did best at intermediate temperatures, and drosophila subobscura preferred cooler cages. the parasitoid leptopilina boulardi had highest fitness at high temperatures. the drosophilids were mixed in various one-species, two-species and three-species ensembles with and without parasitoids, and with and without dispersal. the results were striking. first, dispersal allowed source-sink dynamics, extending thermal ranges beyond those observed without dispersal. competitive interactions changed local abundance and thermal range, shifting the 'optimal' conditions for a species in some cases. the parasitoid affected the host assemblage directly at high temperatures, and indirectly at low temperatures through changes in dispersal. simulated warming altered the relative abundances of species along the gradients in non-intuitive ways, dependent partially on the assemblage of species present. the authors concluded that dispersal and species interactions significantly altered the realized thermal ranges of species within the cool gradient and in the transition from the cool to the simulated warming gradient. d. subobscura remained dominant under the coolest conditions and d. melanogaster was dominant under the warmest conditions in all experiments. the presence and absence of other species altered local abundance and overall range, but not the relative dominance of species along the gradients. this suggests that temperature changes and species interactions act independently in at least some cases. this laboratory-based study illustrates the potential for interactions to significantly alter species distributions, but extrapolating these results to natural communities is difficult. the strength of competition between these species in wild populations is unknown, but it is unlikely to be as strong and consistent as in mesocosm experiments. the mesocosm system has limited opportunities for habitat partitioning, so interactions are unavoidable, making the success of one competitor necessarily constrained by another. in natural systems, habitat selection and microhabitat partitioning could provide competitive refuges, moderating the effects found in the laboratory. however, mesocosm studies remain a potentially powerful and underutilized tool for understanding the impacts of climate change on complex multispecies modules.
How many km examined the realism of rainfall?
1.5-km regional climate model (1.5-km rcm) compared to a 12-km regional climate model (12-km rcm
what are different types of aspects?
we have examined a number of different metrics, which look at different aspects of the spatial and temporal structure of hourly rainfall
what will be the result?
the results here suggest that rainfall is much more realistic in the 1.5-km rcm than in the 12-km rcm
in this study we have examined the realism of rainfall in a 1.5-km regional climate model (1.5-km rcm) compared to a 12-km regional climate model (12-km rcm). a complete and stringent test of model performance should encompass the full spatial and temporal structure of rain, across a wide range of space and time scales and as a function of the meteorological situation. in this paper we have examined a number of different metrics, which look at different aspects of the spatial and temporal structure of hourly rainfall. as such, this represents a first attempt at assessing realism, but many other metrics would be needed to fully capture all aspects. in general, the results here suggest that rainfall is much more realistic in the 1.5-km rcm than in the 12-km rcm. a key focus has been on heavy rain, and we find that, although the 1.5-km rcm appears to have
Where do kelp forest primarily occur?
primarily occurring in nearshore temperate and polar regions, kelp forests contain dense stands of macroalgae and provide food and shelter for many marine species
Do kelp have a soil carbon pool and why or why not?
often free floating or attached to rocky substrates, kelp do not develop extensive rooting systems for trapping detritus and sediment such as vegetation in coastal wetlands and so do not have a soil carbon pool. free floating, detached, or dead kelp is quickly consumed by marine fauna including avian species, and the fraction of kelpbased carbon that is ultimately sequestered through burial in ocean sediments is still poorly understood (smale et al. 2013
Why can kelp not act as effective longterm carbon sinks?
the short life span of individual kelp plants (~1 year) and their lack of longterm carbon storage mean that they cannot act as effective longterm carbon sinks (figure 2b; spalding et al. 2003; muraoka 2004) and are not considered as part of a viable climate mitigation strategy. although harvesting kelp for human use (eg in cosmetics, paper, biofuel) could benefit climate mitigation by providing more sustainable alternatives to using products derived from petroleum or other natural resources (http://bit.ly/1golihg), to date research on this topic is incomplete and is not being implemented at a globally relevant scale
primarily occurring in nearshore temperate and polar regions, kelp forests contain dense stands of macroalgae and provide food and shelter for many marine species. although the estimated areal extent of kelp habitat is approximately 2.35 million ha worldwide, only a fraction of this area has been verified (graham et al. 2007). the carbon stored in kelp biomass ranges from 37-54 mg c ha-1 (muraoka 2004); given the estimated spatial extent of kelp forests, its projected global carbon stock is between 87-127 million mg c (table 1 and webtable 2). often free floating or attached to rocky substrates, kelp do not develop extensive rooting systems for trapping detritus and sediment such as vegetation in coastal wetlands and so do not have a soil carbon pool. free floating, detached, or dead kelp is quickly consumed by marine fauna including avian species, and the fraction of kelpbased carbon that is ultimately sequestered through burial in ocean sediments is still poorly understood (smale et al. 2013). the short life span of individual kelp plants (~1 year) and their lack of longterm carbon storage mean that they cannot act as effective longterm carbon sinks (figure 2b; spalding et al. 2003; muraoka 2004) and are not considered as part of a viable climate mitigation strategy. although harvesting kelp for human use (eg in cosmetics, paper, biofuel) could benefit climate mitigation by providing more sustainable alternatives to using products derived from petroleum or other natural resources (http://bit.ly/1golihg), to date research on this topic is incomplete and is not being implemented at a globally relevant scale.
What happens in a longitudinal experiment ?
in a longitudinal experiment, the thermal sensations of a relatively small number of subjects over different environmental conditions are followed and evaluated
What is the formulas for estimating outdoor thermal sensation?
finally, predictive formulas for estimating outdoor thermal sensation are presented as functions of air temperature, wind speed, solar radiation intensity and absolute humidity
What happened in the year of 2003?
nevertheless, prompted by the outbreak of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (sars) in 2003, there has been strong public interest in recent years in the provision of a quality urban environment in hong kong
this paper presents the findings of an outdoor thermal comfort study conducted in hong kong using longitudinal experiments -- an alternative approach to conventional transverse surveys. in a longitudinal experiment, the thermal sensations of a relatively small number of subjects over different environmental conditions are followed and evaluated. this allows an exploration of the effects of changing climatic conditions on thermal sensation, and thus can provide information that is not possible to acquire through the conventional transverse survey. the paper addresses the effects of changing wind and solar radiation conditions on thermal sensation. it examines the use of predicted mean vote (pmv) in the outdoor context and illustrates the use of an alternative thermal index -- physiological equivalent temperature (pet). the paper supports the conventional assumption that thermal neutrality corresponds to thermal comfort. finally, predictive formulas for estimating outdoor thermal sensation are presented as functions of air temperature, wind speed, solar radiation intensity and absolute humidity. according to the formulas, for a person in light clothing sitting under shade on a typical summer day in hong kong where the air temperature is about 28degc and relative humidity about 80%, a wind speed of about 1.6 m/s is needed to achieve neutral thermal sensation. keywords outdoor comfort thermal comfort wind longitudinal hong kong in high density cities like hong kong where urban space is scarce, the quality of the urban environment is often traded off against maximizing urban land use. nevertheless, prompted by the outbreak of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (sars) in 2003, there has been strong public interest in recent years in the provision of a quality urban environment in hong kong. in response to increasing expectations from the public, the planning department of the hong kong government initiated a study entitled feasibility study for establishment of air ventilation assessment system (avas) in 2003 (ng 2009 ), and a follow-up study entitled urban climatic map and standards for wind environment -- feasibility stud y (ucmap) in 2006 (ng et al. 2006 ). the primary objectives of these studies were to explore the feasibility of establishing some protocols to assess the effects of major planning and development proposals on urban ventilation in hong kong. the ultimate goal is to create an acceptable macro wind environment in the city that would be conducive to our health and comfort.
How weather contributes to transportation incidents in Canada?
weather contributes to a large number of transportation incidents in canada each year, including approximately 10 train derailments and aircraft incidents, over 100 shipping accidents, and tens of thousands of road collisions.(2, 62, 63
What the recent research in several Canadian cities indicates?
recent research in several canadian cities indicates that injury risks from transportation accidents are elevated by approximately 45% during precipitation events relative to normal seasonal conditions, but that increases are similar for snowfall and rainfall
What some people have speculated?
some people have speculated that milder winter conditions may decrease the number of weather-related incidents, especially on roads, since it is well documented that collision rates increase during and after snowfall events
weather contributes to a large number of transportation incidents in canada each year, including approximately 10 train derailments and aircraft incidents, over 100 shipping accidents, and tens of thousands of road collisions.(2, 62, 63)some people have speculated that milder winter conditions may decrease the number of weather-related incidents, especially on roads, since it is well documented that collision rates increase during and after snowfall events. however, many snowfall-related collisions are relatively minor 'fender benders'. human health and safety concerns relate principally to injury-producing incidents, which may tend to be more frequent under warmer weather conditions see box 2). recent research in several canadian cities indicates that injury risks from transportation accidents are elevated by approximately 45% during precipitation events relative to normal seasonal conditions, but that increases are similar for snowfall and rainfall.(63)
Define haplotype networks?
we inferred haplotype networks using unweighted characters and the branch and bound search option in paup* (swofford 2002
Is insertion/deletions (indels) occurs randomly?
although insertion/deletions (indels) do not occur randomly in the cpdna genome, and may therefore be subject to homoplasy, this phenomenon does not appear to strongly affect interpretation in intraspecific studies such as this one (hamilton et al. 2003
What is common sample size?
our common sample size was 100 individuals across the species' range and 20 individuals in the northern five degrees sampled
we inferred haplotype networks using unweighted characters and the branch and bound search option in paup* (swofford 2002). although insertion/deletions (indels) do not occur randomly in the cpdna genome, and may therefore be subject to homoplasy, this phenomenon does not appear to strongly affect interpretation in intraspecific studies such as this one (hamilton et al. 2003). we consequently coded indels as presence/ absence characters and added as binary data to the sequence matrix. however, single base pair-length mutations detected in highly repetitive sequence motifs were excluded from the analysis, because they are labile and appear to be prone to higher levels of homoplasy (van oppen et al. 2002). we evaluated the effects of genetic bottlenecks on our species during postglacial spread by calculating the ratio of the total number of haplotypes found in each species to the number found in the top five degrees of latitude that we sampled (the northern 556 km). we compared this ratio to similar values estimated from other studies of cpdna variation in temperate woody species. sampling effort differed between studies, so we standardized across studies using the rarefaction approach (hurlbert 1971, simberloff 1972). our common sample size was 100 individuals across the species' range and 20 individuals in the northern five degrees sampled.
How much greater was the lethal thermal tolerance window for the temperate species than the tropical species?
the temperate species from the wadden sea tidal flat had lethal thermal tolerance windows approximately 7degc greater than those of the tropical roebuck bay species
Between the Wadden Sea species and the Roebuck Bay species, which can survive across a wider range of temperatures?
this shows that the wadden sea species can survive across a wider range of temperatures before they cease to function
Between the Wadden Sea species and the Roebuck Bay species, which can survive at higher temperatures?
the tropical roebuck bay species displayed an ability to survive higher temperatures in their upper lethal thermal limits than the temperate species, whereas the temperate wadden sea species survived cooler temperatures than the tropical species
climate variability effect in intertidal bivalves 39 39 4. discussion in agreement with the climate variability hypothesis, the temperate species in agreement with the climate variability hypothesis, the temperate species from the wadden sea tidal flat had lethal thermal tolerance windows approximately 7degc greater than those of the tropical roebuck bay species that appeared to reflect the greater temperature variation measured in the temperate sediments. this shows that the wadden sea species can survive across a wider range of temperatures before they cease to function. the tropical roebuck bay species displayed an ability to survive higher temperatures in their upper lethal thermal limits than the temperate species, whereas the temperate wadden sea species survived cooler temperatures than the tropical species. these results are consistent with studies on crabs decapoda.
What are the two pigments discussed in this study?
tp and chlorophyll
What happens to Mjosa and Pburger in this study?
in the cases of mjosa and piburger see there have been significant reductions in both tp and chlorophyll
What happened to Loch leven in this study?
in contrast the response of loch leven to the reduction in nutrient loading is limited
fig. 3 shows trends in tp and chlorophyll a for four of the sites listed in table 1. in the cases of mjosa and piburger see there have been significant reductions in both tp and chlorophyll a following measures taken to reduce external loading from point sources. in the case of piburger see, monitoring was introduced only after the control measures were taken (fig. 3) but the success of the measures taken can be judged from the sediment core evidence for its previously enriched state (fig. 2, thies et al ., 2012). in contrast the response of loch leven to the reduction in nutrient loading is limited (carvalho et al ., 2012) and in esthwaite water there has been little response so far (maberly et al. 2011). 20 20
what may be preventing their access to facilities?
in terms of practical steps, programmes are needed to improve access to health care, particularly for women and the elderly, including introducing cash transfers, free health checks and mobile health units
What are the gender-specific health impacts of climate change on children and adolescents and how could programmes respond to this?
programmes to offset the demands of care work on women and girls are also critical. considerable knowledge exists regarding appropriate support and interventions to alleviate women's care burden in the context of hiv (see in particular vso 2006). these insights should be drawn upon to inform climate change policy and programming
mostly affected by the peoples health for what?
people's health been affected by climate change
qualitative scoping studies on the gender-specific use of health facilities are required how has people's health been affected by climate change and what may be preventing their access to facilities? what are the gender-specific health impacts of climate change on children and adolescents and how could programmes respond to this? in terms of practical steps, programmes are needed to improve access to health care, particularly for women and the elderly, including introducing cash transfers, free health checks and mobile health units. programmes to offset the demands of care work on women and girls are also critical. considerable knowledge exists regarding appropriate support and interventions to alleviate women's care burden in the context of hiv (see in particular vso 2006). these insights should be drawn upon to inform climate change policy and programming.
What are the consequences of melting submarine ice?
cause the grounding line to retreat, especially when subglacial meltwater produces more vigorous buoyancy-driven circulation
various mechanisms related to atmospheric and ocean forcing have been proposed to explain the recent behaviour of the major outlet glaciers, but large uncertainties in their relative importance remain14,15. a warmer ocean can melt submarine ice and thereby cause the grounding line to retreat, especially when subglacial meltwater produces more vigorous buoyancy-driven circulation16. persistent sea-ice or ice melange may exert a small resistive force that stabilizes retreat9 by limiting the calving and subsequent rotation of icebergs17. higher air temperatures increase surface meltwater production, which may (a) accumulate in surface crevasses causing hydro-fracturing and thereby increase calving18 and reduce resistance at the lateral margins19, and (b) reach the glacier bed to increase basal lubrication20. all these factors may lead to acceleration and subsequent thinning.
Nicholls Lowe found that what increases flood impacts?
slr
examining the changing global flood risk under the ipcc's emissions scenarios (not accounting for any changes in storminess), nicholls lowe (113) found that slr increases the flood impacts under all climate change scenarios, with significant impacts becoming apparent later in the century when large additional numbers of people (2-50 million annually) could be flooded during storms. a more recent analysis found that if the increase in global mean temperature exceeds 4*c the associated slr of up to 2 m by 2100 could lead to the forced displacement of up to 187 million people ~ 2.4% of global population) from at-risk areas (11).
What is the spatial arrangement of the FTR?
the spatial arrangement of the ftr is outlined by an assemblage of low, elongated hills typical of the precambrian plateau,with thin soils and granite-gneiss outcrops interrupted by lakes and wetlands
How do the fires start?
fire ignition generally occurs on the well-drained parts of the vegetated hills.the basic "cellular"unit of the ft is a single, low-elevation, granitic hill exhibiting a striking,fire-induced vegetation toposequence: a cover of lichens and shrubs (with or without trees) at the top surrounded, often just a few meters below the summit, by dry to mesic lichen woodlands and wet spruce-moss stands downslope and near depressions (figure 3a). at several places, the toposequence corresponds to the extent of small fires (fewer than 100 ha), particularly in the northern ft and the shrub tundra (payette et al. 1989). in areas affected by large fires (100,000-200,000 ha), for instance, in the southern ft, the cellular unit is reproduced seemingly infinitely
Do the isolated forests impact the fire risk?
the greater isolation of confined forest islands at the arctic tree line creates a situation of constrained fire spread because of the lack of wood fuel, thus reducing the probability of potentially damaging domino effects associated with large conflagrations, such as increased albedo, reduced snow depth in wind-exposed burned forests
the spatial arrangement of the ftr is outlined by an assemblage of low, elongated hills typical of the precambrian plateau,with thin soils and granite-gneiss outcrops interrupted by lakes and wetlands. this assemblage provides the initial topographic setting for fire spread. fire ignition generally occurs on the well-drained parts of the vegetated hills.the basic "cellular"unit of the ft is a single, low-elevation, granitic hill exhibiting a striking,fire-induced vegetation toposequence: a cover of lichens and shrubs (with or without trees) at the top surrounded, often just a few meters below the summit, by dry to mesic lichen woodlands and wet spruce-moss stands downslope and near depressions (figure 3a). at several places, the toposequence corresponds to the extent of small fires (fewer than 100 ha), particularly in the northern ft and the shrub tundra (payette et al. 1989). in areas affected by large fires (100,000-200,000 ha), for instance, in the southern ft, the cellular unit is reproduced seemingly infinitely. this creates a landscape of thousands of toposequences arranged in a geographical pattern that mimics the structural geometry of the bedrock and its superimposed, smoother glacial landforms. one can thus describe the ft as a constellation of subarctic tree lines, in far greater number in the middle and southern parts of the ft and steadily decreasing toward the ultimate arctic tree line (figure 3b, right). indeed, each vegetation toposequence corresponds to a neat tree-line situation (stevens and fox 1991), that is, a subarctic tree line.at any subarctic tree line, site factors (vegetational, edaphic, and topographic) appear as the proximal causes of tree exclusion from the lichen-shrub sites, particularly in the southern ft (figure 3b). for hundreds of years after fire, nearby seed-bearing trees were generally unable to colonize the ground vegetation, even within a distance of tens or hundreds of meters from the forest edge, pointing to physical factors (soil moisture, lichen cover, temperature, and so on) as the ultimate causes of tree exclusion. tree colonization of lichen tundra patches across the ft thus appears to be controlled by both local (site conditions) and regional (climate) factors. as a result,although the arctic tree line is the northernmost, it is not necessarily the most climatically stressed of all ft tree lines. some high-altitude subarctic tree lines south of the arctic tree line are often more climatically stressed. accordingly, under a changing climate, the arctic tree line may not be the first ft tree line to respond readily to climatic changes. furthermore, the greater isolation of confined forest islands at the arctic tree line creates a situation of constrained fire spread because of the lack of wood fuel, thus reducing the probability of potentially damaging domino effects associated with large conflagrations, such as increased albedo, reduced snow depth in wind-exposed burned forests, and changed
How does climate influence human activity?
the chemistry of the human body makes our health and comfort sensitive to climate. every day, climate influences human activity, including diet, chores, recreation, and conversation. households spend considerable amounts on housing, energy, clothing, and travel to protect themselves from extreme climates and to enjoy comfortable moderation
What are the benefits of valuing climate amenities?
valuing climate amenities not only helps us to understand how climate affects welfare and where people live, but also helps to inform policy responses to climate change
What are the welfare impacts of higher temperatures?
a priori, the welfare impacts of higher temperatures are ambiguous: households may suffer from hotter summers but benefit from milder winters. ultimately, these impacts depend on where households are located, the changes in climate amenities they experience, and how much they value these changes
the chemistry of the human body makes our health and comfort sensitive to climate. every day, climate influences human activity, including diet, chores, recreation, and conversation. households spend considerable amounts on housing, energy, clothing, and travel to protect themselves from extreme climates and to enjoy comfortable moderation. geographically, climate impacts the desirability of different locations and the quality of life they offer; few seek to live in the freezing tundra or oppressively hot deserts. given the undeniable influence climate has on economic decisions and welfare, we seek to estimate the dollar value american households place on climate amenities, including sunshine, precipitation, humidity, and especially temperature. valuing climate amenities not only helps us to understand how climate affects welfare and where people live, but also helps to inform policy responses to climate change. global climate change threatens to alter local climates, most obviously by raising temperatures. a priori, the welfare impacts of higher temperatures are ambiguous: households may suffer from hotter summers but benefit from milder winters. ultimately, these impacts depend on where households are located, the changes in climate amenities they experience, and how much they value these changes. in this paper, we estimate the value of climate amenities in the united states by examining how households' willingness to pay (wtp) to live in different areas varies with climate in the cross-section. following the intuition laid out by rosen (1974, 1979) and roback (1982), and later refined by albouy (2011), we measure wtp by developing a local quality-of-life (qol) index based on how much households pay in costs-of-living relative to the incomes they receive. the u.s. is a particularly appropriate setting in which to use this method as it has a large population that is mobile over areas with diverse climates. globally, the u.s. lies in a temperate zone, with some areas that are quite hot (arizona) while others are quite cold (minnesota), and some with extreme seasonality (missouri) while others are mild year-round (coastal california). this variation allows us to identify preferences over a broad range of habitable climates. we adopt this hedonic approach as there are no explicit markets for climate amenities, only an implicit market based on household location choices. our estimates of amenity 2
What range of data was used?
we used data from 1970 to 2003
Which summary statistics were calculated?
the sum of mean monthly maximum temperatures during january-april (hereafter 'late winter temperature') and the sum of mean monthly maximum temperatures for may and june ('spring temperature
Where were ice distribution records obtained from?
records of ice distribution were obtained from the canadian ice service
to characterize trends in temperature and ice conditions over the period of our study we used data from 1970 to 2003. daily temperature records were obtained from the weather office of environment canada for the nearest weather stations: resolute bay and nanisivik for prince leopold island; coral harbour and rankin inlet for coats island (fig. 1). mean temperature maxima and minima in july 1991-2000 at these four stations are presented in table 1. we calculated two summary statistics for annual temperature: the sum of mean monthly maximum temperatures during january-april (hereafter 'late winter temperature') and the sum of mean monthly maximum temperatures for may and june ('spring temperature'). as temperature data were available from nanisivik only from 1984 onwards, temperature data from resolute bay were used to compare with timing of laying at prince leopold island, for which data extended back to 1975. records of ice distribution were obtained from the canadian ice service in the form of weekly or bi-weekly ice maps. waters around prince leopold island (barrow strait, lancaster sound and prince regent inlet) are typically completely covered by consolidated pack ice in winter. in spring, there is a clear demarcation between consolidated pack ice and open water areas ('the iceedge'). we used the distance from the colony to the nearest ice edge on 20 june (the earliest date of laying by brunnich's guillemots at pli) as an annual indicator of ice conditions at the start of breeding. as ice breaks up from east to west across barrow strait and lancaster sound (fig. 2), the position of the ice edge was expressed as km east (+) or west (-) of prince leopold island. pack ice in the water of northern hudson bay adjacent to coats island never consolidates, remaining mobile and providing ephemeral open water areas which shift throughout the winter. hence, we could not calculate a
What are the consequences of climate change
this will inevitably bring about numerous environmental problems, including alterations to the hydrological cycle, which is already heavily influenced by anthropogenic activity
Name one remedy for worst drought situation
groundwater will be vital to alleviate some of the worst drought situations
What do people think about climate change
there is a general consensus that climate change is an ongoing phenomenon
there is a general consensus that climate change is an ongoing phenomenon. this will inevitably bring about numerous environmental problems, including alterations to the hydrological cycle, which is already heavily influenced by anthropogenic activity. the available climate scenarios indicate areas where rainfall may increase or diminish, but the final outcome with respect to man and environment will, generally, be detrimental. groundwater will be vital to alleviate some of the worst drought situations. the paper analyses the main methods for studying the relationships between climate change and groundwater, and presents the main areas in which hydrogeological research should focus in order to mitigate the likely impacts.
What is natural capital?
natural capital is a term used by economists to summarize the multiple and various services of nature from which humans benefit - from natural resources (incl. food and water), to pollution absorption and environmental amenities (recreation, wildlife tourism etc
What nature services do humans benefit from?
from natural resources (incl. food and water), to pollution absorption and environmental amenities (recreation, wildlife tourism etc
Is there a possibility, in the future, of reducing the damage to natural capital?
this would call for action if one is willing to make the ethical judgement that a decrease in future utility must be prevented
the real issue: non-substitutable loss of natural capital in my view, the discounting debate, important as it is, misses what really should be the major issue in dispute on climate change: whether and, if so, to what extent climate change inflicts irreversible and non-substitutable damage to and loss of natural capital (see also neumayer 1999, 2003). natural capital is a term used by economists to summarize the multiple and various services of nature from which humans benefit - from natural resources (incl. food and water), to pollution absorption and environmental amenities (recreation, wildlife tourism etc). that climate change leads to many irreversible negative effects on natural capital is largely undisputed. but what does 'non-substitutable' mean? put simply, damage to and loss of natural capital is non-substitutable if it cannot be compensated for by growth in consumption. this can be motivated in at least two ways. one approach sticks to a utilitybased framework and argues that climate change, at least above a certain threshold, is likely to lower the utility of future generations. this would call for action if one is willing to make the ethical judgement that a decrease in future utility must be prevented. the other approach
What are other effective ways to mitigate climate change?
switching to wind or other renewable energies, consuming less meat, conserving daily energy use, and eating locally grown food are other effective ways to mitigate climate change, to name but a few
What provides additional evidence of this phenomenon?
cred research provides additional evidence of this phenomenon
In how many activities to protect against the impact of drought on their livelihoods do farmers engage?
one study found that, to adapt to climate variability, many farmers in argentina engaged in only one activity to protect against the impact of drought on their livelihoods, despite having numerous options available to them
for example, although recycling is important, it should be but one activity in a series of behavior changes aimed at reducing climate change. switching to wind or other renewable energies, consuming less meat, conserving daily energy use, and eating locally grown food are other effective ways to mitigate climate change, to name but a few. however, if individuals and institutions participate in recycling programs, they may be prone to the single action bias and feel like they are already doing enough to protect the environment. cred research provides additional evidence of this phenomenon. one study found that, to adapt to climate variability, many farmers in argentina engaged in only one activity to protect against the impact of drought on their livelihoods, despite having numerous options available to them. for instance, farmers who had the capacity to store grain on their farms were less likely to use irrigation or crop insurance although these measures would have added up to even greater protection against the impact of drought.40
The most extreme negative anomalies in winter are caused by what?
negative anomalies occur in winter, the most extreme caused by the shamal, a cold north wind which blows from the iranian highlands into the area of low atmospheric pressure over the arabian peninsula
What is the Shamal?
negative anomalies occur in winter, the most extreme caused by the shamal, a cold north wind which blows from the iranian highlands into the area of low atmospheric pressure over the arabian peninsula
What effect did a severe Shamal have on coral in the southern Gulf?
shinn (1976) attributed massive coral die-back in the southern gulf (qatar) to a severe shamal
arabian gulf--observations the arabian gulf is subject to both extreme negative and positive temperature excursions (fig. 3). negative anomalies occur in winter, the most extreme caused by the shamal, a cold north wind which blows from the iranian highlands into the area of low atmospheric pressure over the arabian peninsula (murty and el sabh 1984). shinn (1976) attributed massive coral die-back in the southern gulf (qatar) to a severe shamal, which caused surface cooling to 4 and to 14.1  c at 18-m depth. shamals may generate storm seas of up to 6-m wave height [caused by strong winds; 65 kph recorded
The formula to calculate the coliform concentration after a time t depends on what?
the hydraulic regime of the water body
Rivers are usually represented as plug-flow reactors, while reservoirs are what?
frequently represented as completely-mixed reactors
For completely-mixed reactors, the time t corresponds to the detention time, given by?
t v/q
the formula to calculate the coliform concentration after a time t depends on the hydraulic regime of the water body. rivers are usually represented as plug-flow reactors, while reservoirs are frequently represented as completely-mixed reactors. these concepts, including the analysis of the other more realistic hydraulic models, are described in greater detail in chapter 8. depending on the characteristics of the water body, the formulas shown in table 3 can be used. for completely-mixed reactors, the time t corresponds to the detention time, given by: t v/q. the concentration of the coliforms at any point in the reactor is the same, coinciding with the effluent concentration.
What is true of all Budyko-type equations?
for all budyko-type equations, the two methods yield close results that climate change and human activities are both the driving factors to the decline of runoff of the weihe river and climate change has a more profound impact than human activities
What is one of the focuses in the latter section?
in the latter parts of this section, we focus on the results based on the wang-tang equation to further discuss the impact of climate change and human activities on runoff of the weihe river
What is the time window?
the time window of 1960-1970
qhfor 1965, i.e. the time window of 1960-1970, are both set to 0) estimated by the decomposition method and the sensitivity method on the basis of the covariate analysis for the parameter w in each budyko-type equation. for all budyko-type equations, the two methods yield close results that climate change and human activities are both the driving factors to the decline of runoff of the weihe river and climate change has a more profound impact than human activities. in the latter parts of this section, we focus on the results based on the wang-tang equation to further discuss the impact of climate change and human activities on runoff of the weihe river. table 4 summaries the
What is there a recognized need to adapt to?
changing climatic conditions
How are limits traditionally analyzed?
as a set of immutable thresholds in biological, economic or technological parameters
What do limits to adaptation depend on?
the ultimate goals of adaptation underpinned by diverse values
while there is a recognised need to adapt to changing climatic conditions, there is an emerging discourse of limits to such adaptation. limits are traditionally analysed as a set of immutable thresholds in biological, economic or technological parameters. this paper contends that limits to adaptation are endogenous to society and hence contingent on ethics, knowledge, attitudes to risk and culture. we review insights from history, sociology and psychology of risk, economics and political science to develop four propositions concerning limits to adaptation. first, any limits to adaptation depend on the ultimate goals of adaptation underpinned by diverse values. second, adaptation need not be limited by uncertainty around future foresight of risk. third, social and individual factors limit adaptation action. fourth, systematic undervaluation of loss of places and culture disguises real, experienced but subjective limits to adaptation. we conclude that these issues of values and ethics, risk, knowledge and culture construct societal limits to adaptation, but that these limits are mutable.
What is RNA?
ribonucleic acid
What can be said of the permeability of the cell walls?
it is believed that this wall is not semi-permeable and therefore does not exert a role in the regulation of the consumption of dissolved substances in the surrounding medium
What do cells generally have as an external boundary?
the cells generally have as an external boundary a cell membrane
generally, the majority of living cells are very similar. a short description of their main components is presented below (la rivi'ere, 1980; tchobanoglous schroeder, 1985). the cells generally have as an external boundary a cell membrane this membrane is flexible and functions as a selective barrier between what is contained inside the cell and the external environment. the membrane is semi-permeable and therefore exerts an important role in selecting the substances that can leave or enter the cell. however, bacteria, algae, fungi, and plants have yet another external layer called cell wall this is generally composed of a rigid material that gives structural form to the cell, even offering protection against mechanical impacts and osmotic alterations. it is believed that this wall is not semi-permeable and therefore does not exert a role in the regulation of the consumption of dissolved substances in the surrounding medium. in some bacteria the cell wall can even be involved by another external layer, generally of a gelatinous material, called capsule (with defined limits) or gelatinous layer (when diffused). in the case that the individual cells present motility, they usually have flagella or cilia the interior of the cell contains organelles and a colloidal suspension of proteins, carbohydrates and other complex forms of organic matter, constituting the cytoplasm each cell contains nucleic acids a genetic material vital for reproduction. ribonucleic acid (rna) is important for the synthesis of proteins and is found in 300 basic principles of wastewater treatment
How has most of the school climate work been?
has been correlational
although the majority of work on school climate has been correlational, a number of researchers have developed interventions aimed at improving school atmosphere. many of these programs target the social and emotional learning environments (durlak et al. 2011 ), such as the fast track paths program, while others, including direct instruction, the comer school development program, and success for all, demonstrate significant improvements in academic outcomes by improving the academic and community climates (borman et al. 2003 ). while much of this intervention work has shed light on the capability for reforms in school climate to produce meaningful change in student outcomes, there are still lingering questions: how does changing one feature of school climate potentially affect other features or domains? how do these features interact to shape development? how long do the effects of an
What industry stands to be a major loser in the face of a changing climate?
the insurance industry stands to be a major loser in the face of a changing climate
Which industry owns many of the more glamorous buildings in major cities?
many of the more glamorous buildings in major cities are owned by the insurance industry
Why have most insurers now dropped clauses in their building insurance policies that cover terrorism?
most insurers have now dropped clauses in their building insurance policies that cover terrorism because insurers feel that it is not something that is insurable without specialist coverage
another approach would be to classify new housing according to the build quality and specification, which would allow insurers to charge different rates according to vulnerability to windstorm, subsidence and flood. this would be similar in some ways to the different groupings used by motor insurers: it would reflect the risk better, and could lead to public pressure for improved standards. but in effect the insurance industry stands to be a major loser in the face of a changing climate, not only because of the escalating payouts for which they are responsible but also because a significant proportion of their funds is already invested in what could be surmised to be highrisk buildings. many of the more glamorous buildings in major cities are owned by the insurance industry, which holds significant stocks in ' prestige ' developments. these are what is increasingly being recognized as the high-risk end of the property markets. there is an achilles ' heel in the system. insurance companies charge similar rates for office space by postcode, regardless of the risk an individual building or space within a building poses. similar insurance premiums are charged for offices at the top of a very tall ' target type ' tower as may be charged to a low-rise robust office in a medium-sized city. so people in resilient buildings may be subsidizing the risk of the target buildings, the buildings that are perhaps most vulnerable to extreme climate events. this unfair situation will only last until the government decides to legislate that buildings should pay according to the risks they present, or until the first clever insurance company divests itself of its ' white elephant ' and high-risk buildings so that it is itself sufficiently unencumbered by a portfolio of high-risk buildings to offer fair, lower premiums to low-risk building owners, according to their actual risk visa -vis claims related to perhaps extreme climate or power outage events. architects in the wake of 9/11, were actually told by the insurance industry in march 2003 to stop offering clients advice on ways of protecting buildings against terrorist attacks and of providing escape routes because the service has recently been excluded from professional indemnity insurance policies and it is felt by the industry that architects would be stepping out of their area of expertise by doing so. most insurers have now dropped clauses in their building insurance policies that cover terrorism because insurers feel that it is not something that is insurable without specialist coverage. 48 in the maelstrom of the 2008 economic meltdown very careful steps were taken by the association of british insurers (abi) to shed risk and in november 2008 came a significant reduction in the extent of the properties that the abi members would be obliged to insure on flood plains. increasingly, insurers will retreat from risk as their survival, in difficult financial times, becomes more precarious. so those wishing to build on risky sites must understand that they may not be covered if they do. unfortunately, postcodes are not allotted until after buildings are built and many people buy off-plan. this in itself provides an opportunity for misunderstanding that building buyers should be aware of.
What has been defined to serve the needs for climate change research?
the ssps have been defined to serve the needs for climate change research
What is the framework of this research for developing community scenarios with use to climate change?
the framework focuses on some fundamental research questions: the identification of costs, risks and benefits associated with mitigation and adaptation policy and the trade-offs and synergies between different strategies
What are the two main axes in this framework?
the framework has two main axes: 1) some fundamental research questions (as characterised by the rcps); and 2) different socio-economic pathways (as described in the ssps
the ssps have been defined to serve the needs for climate change research experience in the past has shown that such scenarios have a much broader reach into the wider global environmental change and sustainability literature. it is currently still an open question whether the ssps can also be broadened in this context (see further o ' neill et al. 2013 ). 4 conclusions in this paper, we have described a framework for developing community scenarios for use in climate change research and assessment. the framework focuses on some fundamental research questions: the identification of costs, risks and benefits associated with mitigation and adaptation policy and the trade-offs and synergies between different strategies. the framework has two main axes: 1) some fundamental research questions (as characterised by the rcps); and 2) different socio-economic pathways (as described in the ssps). both pathways are described in the absence of climate policy (e.g. policy instruments and participation rules). these can be combined with climate policy assumptions as well as other uncertainties (such as climate change projections) within a scenario matrix, to create integrated scenarios. the framework can be used to investigate a number of diverse climate research questions. comparison of scenarios down the columns of the matrix can help to evaluate the costs and benefits of mitigation and adaptation policies for a given pathway of future socio-economic development. comparison across the rows of the matrix can provide insights on how different socio-economic conditions may influence climate impacts and policies. the scenario framework can also be used as a heuristic tool for classifying new scenarios and existing scenarios and studies, and as guide for developing new scenarios. currently, research teams with expertise in scenario drivers, integrated assessment modeling and iav research are developing these new scenarios. scenarios have served as an important crystallizing function in climate change research in the past, and will likely continue to do so in the future. the framework presented here is intended to provide a further step towards integration across the different communities engaged in climate change research. references
What is the effect of shifting of dietary trends?
shifting dietary trends so that average worldwide per capita meat consumption falls to 90g per day, as recommended in the harvard healthy diet, could avoid 2.15gt co2e of emissions per year by 2030
What are the consequences of reducing meat and dairy consumption ?
a study published in the journal nature climate change estimated 5.6 gt co2e of emissions savings per year by 2050 from reducing meat and dairy consumption to levels consistent with nutritional recommendations, compared with 4gt co2e per year from 'sustainable intensification' of the entire agriculture sector (where global yields converge on maximum levels
How do you compare GHG emissions in meat eaters and vegans?
a study for the uk suggested that dietary ghg emissions in meat-eaters are approximately twice as high as those in vegans.40
in its latest review of the scientific literature on mitigation in the agriculture sector, the international panel on climate change (ipcc) found that the greatest potential for emissions reduction exists on the demand side.37 for example, one recent assessment of mitigation opportunities in agriculture estimated that shifting dietary trends so that average worldwide per capita meat consumption falls to 90g per day, as recommended in the harvard healthy diet, could avoid 2.15gt co2e of emissions per year by 2030.38 this is considerably more than the estimated reductions available from supply-side mitigation of enteric fermentation, management of grazing soils, and manure storage combined. a study published in the journal nature climate change estimated 5.6 gt co2e of emissions savings per year by 2050 from reducing meat and dairy consumption to levels consistent with nutritional recommendations, compared with 4gt co2e per year from 'sustainable intensification' of the entire agriculture sector (where global yields converge on maximum levels).39 a study for the uk suggested that dietary ghg emissions in meat-eaters are approximately twice as high as those in vegans.40
What did the famous "Keeling curve" graph show and how did it affect the scientific community?
the famous "keeling curve" graph, below, which shows the increasing amounts of carbon dioxide in the earth's atmosphere from 1958 to 2006, set off alarms in the scientific community that continue to ring loudly today
What may have the "Keeling curve" graph somehow unfortunately conveyed to lay audiences?
it may actually convey the message that the buildup of carbon dioxide in the earth's atmosphere has been taking place over a long period, thereby erroneously implying that climate change is not an urgent issue
What might be the psychological reason many people have difficulty grasping the importance of projections of higher carbon dioxide concentrations and surface temperatures several decades from now?
part of the problem may be the tendency to discount future events, as described in section 2
the famous "keeling curve" graph, below, which shows the increasing amounts of carbon dioxide in the earth's atmosphere from 1958 to 2006, set off alarms in the scientific community that continue to ring loudly today. yet somehow, this same graph does not communicate the immediacy of the climate change problem to lay audiences. instead, it may actually convey the message that the buildup of carbon dioxide in the earth's atmosphere has been taking place over a long period, thereby erroneously implying that climate change is not an urgent issue. similarly, many people have difficulty grasping the importance of projections of higher carbon dioxide concentrations and surface temperatures several decades from now. part of the problem may be the tendency to discount future events, as described in section 2. but another part of the problem may be that a global average surface temperature increase of a few degrees does not seem like much to the general public, given the variability in temperature
What is the current paradox regarding the physical and biological indicators Arctic change?
a current paradox is that many physical and biological indicators of arctic change--summer sea-ice extent, spring surface air temperature and cloud cover, and shifts in vegetation and other ecosystems--show nearly linear trends over the previous two and a half decades, while the arctic oscillation, a representative atmospheric circulation index often associated with arctic change, has had a different, more episodic behavior, with a near-neutral or negative phase for 6 of the last 9 years (1996-2004) following a positive phase (1989-1995
What is the significance of tratospheric temperature anomalies over the Arctic?
stratospheric temperature anomalies over the arctic, which serve as an index of the strength of the polar vortex, also show this episodic character
What is the indications of Model projections of Arctic temperature for 2010-2029 ?
model projections of arctic temperature for 2010-2029 show model-to-model and region-to-region differences suggesting large variability in the future response of atmospheric circulation to external forcing
a current paradox is that many physical and biological indicators of arctic change--summer sea-ice extent, spring surface air temperature and cloud cover, and shifts in vegetation and other ecosystems--show nearly linear trends over the previous two and a half decades, while the arctic oscillation, a representative atmospheric circulation index often associated with arctic change, has had a different, more episodic behavior, with a near-neutral or negative phase for 6 of the last 9 years (1996-2004) following a positive phase (1989-1995). stratospheric temperature anomalies over the arctic, which serve as an index of the strength of the polar vortex, also show this episodic character. model projections of arctic temperature for 2010-2029 show model-to-model and region-to-region differences suggesting large variability in the future response of atmospheric circulation to external forcing. thus internal processes in the western arctic may have a larger role in shaping the present persistence of arctic change than has been previously recognized. citation: overland, j. e., and m. wang (2005), the arctic climate paradox: the recent decrease of the arctic oscillation, geophys. res. lett. 32 l06701, doi:10.1029/2004gl021752.
what are the research designs in use that approximate the average treatment effect ?
there are essentially three research designs in use that approximate the average treatment effect in equation 5: cross-sectional approaches, use of time-series variation, and a hybrid known as long differences
What is the core assumption of cross-sectional approaches?
the core assumption needed for this approach is the unit homogeneity assumption as written in equation 6. under this assumption, if different populations have the same climate, then their expected conditional outcomes are assumed to be the same
What are the conceptual trade-offs to these designs that approximate the average treatment effect ?
the conceptual trade-offs to these designs center around a whether it is reasonable to assume that distinct populations are comparable units after the econometrician has conditioned on observable characteristics, and b whether climatic events observed to affect a population are sufficient to capture relevant direct effects and belief effects of climate
there are essentially three research designs in use that approximate the average treatment effect in equation 5: cross-sectional approaches, use of time-series variation, and a hybrid known as long differences. the conceptual trade-offs to these designs center around a whether it is reasonable to assume that distinct populations are comparable units after the econometrician has conditioned on observable characteristics, and b whether climatic events observed to affect a population are sufficient to capture relevant direct effects and belief effects of climate. 2.1.1. cross-sectional approaches. in cross-sectional research designs, different populations in the same period t are compared to one another after conditioning on observables xi t. the core assumption needed for this approach is the unit homogeneity assumption as written in equation 6. under this assumption, if different populations have the same climate, then their expected conditional outcomes are assumed to be the same. this allows the econometrician to attribute all differences in observed conditional outcomes to differences in climate, by estimating equation 7 having assumed equation 6. in a linear framework, this estimate is usually implemented via a regression equation of the form yi ^ a ci^ bcs xi ^ g ^ [?]i, (8) where t subscripts are omitted because all observations occur in the same period. here, ^ a is a constant, ^ g are effects of observables, and ^ [?]i are unexplained variations. the estimate of interest ^ bcs is a column vector of coefficients describing marginal effects of terms in ci, the set of parameters4
What will Bangladesh continue to depend on for economic growth?
bangladesh will continue to depend on the agriculture sector for economic growth
What will rural households continue to depend on for income and livelihoods?
rural households will continue to depend on the agriculture sector for income and livelihoods
What does the no-regrets strategy promote?
a no-regrets strategy is to promote activities and policies that help households build resilience to existing climate risks today
bangladesh will continue to depend on the agriculture sector for economic growth. rural households will continue to depend on the agriculture sector for income and livelihoods. though the government has made substantial investments to increase the resilience of the poor (e.g. new highyielding crop varieties, protective infrastructure, disaster management), existing constraints in the sector may be exacerbated by long-term effects of climate change. the scale of current efforts remains limited and is not commensurate with the probable impacts. a no-regrets strategy is to promote activities and policies that help households build resilience to existing climate risks today.
What critical role could development and transfer of environmentally sound technologies play?
in reducing the cost of stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations
What will lower the costs of their adoption?
economies of scale and learning
How could the governments create an enabling environment for privateand public-sector technology transfers?
through sound economic policy and regulatory frameworks, transparency, and political stability
development and transfer of environmentally sound technologies could play a critical role in reducing the cost of stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations. transfer of technologies between countries and regions could widen the choice of options at the regional level. economies of scale and learning will lower the costs of their adoption. through sound economic policy and regulatory frameworks, transparency, and political stability, governments could create an enabling environment for privateand public-sector technology transfers. adequate human and organizational capacity is essential at every stage to increase the flow, and improve the quality, of technology transfer. in addition, networking among private and public stakeholders, and focusing on products and techniques with multiple ancillary benefits, that meet or adapt to local development needs and priorities, is essential for most effective technology transfers. lower emissions scenarios require different patterns of energy resource development and an increase in energy research and development to assist accelerating the development and deployment of advanced environmentally sound energy technologies. emissions of co2 due to fossil-fuel burning are virtually certain to be the dominant influence on the trend of atmospheric co2 concentration during the 21st century. resource data assessed in the tar may imply a change in the energy mix and the of new sources of energy during the 21st century. the choice of energy mix and associated technologies and investments--either more in the direction of exploitation of unconventional oil and gas resources, or in the direction of
What has the scientific community created?
the scientific community has constructed models that attempt to quantify the relationship between future climate and ghg emissions
What does the scientific community describe?
this section describes the nature of uncertainty in scientific projections of climate change and its relevance for policy choices
advances in the science of climate change detection and attribution over the past twenty years have made it clear beyond a reasonable doubt that human emissions of greenhouse gases (ghgs) are largely responsible for the observed changes in global temperature during the twentieth century (intergovernmental panel on climate change [ipcc] 2007; stone et al. 2009). thus as we continue to pump carbon dioxide (co2) and other ghgs into the atmosphere, the climate will change further. what is less clear is exactly how much and how quickly the global climate will respond to these changes in the composition of the atmosphere. the scientific community has constructed models that attempt to quantify the relationship between future climate and ghg emissions, but it is still highly uncertain. this section describes the nature of uncertainty in scientific projections of climate change and its relevance for policy choices.
Have national adaptation strategies been translated into planning practice?
most national adaptation strategies have not yet translated into planning practice, and other countries do not have such strategies
What does Table 6 show?
this was complemented by information-rich country and city-specific studies (table 6
Was the analysis a challenge?
the analysis turned out to be challenging as, even in countries where climate change adaptation has been acknowledged as an important issue for urban planning, little has been done (carmin et al., 2012; greiving and fleischhauer, 2012; mickwitz et al., 2009; unisdr, 2012c
a meta-evaluation of recent cross-country studies was carried out to assess current adaptation practice. this was complemented by information-rich country and city-specific studies (table 6). the evaluation analysed urban adaptation measures (i.e. their focus with respect to risk factors and the city-disasters nexus), and their implementation (i.e. strategies promoted for mainstreaming adaptation into urban planning) (cf. figure 2). the analysis turned out to be challenging as, even in countries where climate change adaptation has been acknowledged as an important issue for urban planning, little has been done (carmin et al., 2012; greiving and fleischhauer, 2012; mickwitz et al., 2009; unisdr, 2012c). in practice, urban planning is of only marginal interest. most national adaptation strategies have not yet translated into planning practice, and other countries do not have such strategies. consequentlywhile it is generally recognized that the role of spatial planning for adaptation should be strengthened, practices are still poorly developed. nevertheless, and despite huge variations between countries (gagnon-lebrun and agrawala, 2006), several important conclusions could be drawn. these findings are presented in the following section and are summarized in table 7.
what is the cause of malaria disease
anopheles mosquitoes
How is malaria affected by climate change?
malaria research is one example of our lack of understanding of the potential implications of climate change for the united states. it has been demonstrated for 50 years that when malaria is reintroduced into this country, the sociologic and ecologic conditions limit human-mosquito contact, and the public health system has been able to suppress disease outbreaks quickly. there have been no rigorous assessments of the behavior and vector competence of u.s. anopheles since the 1950s. public health focus has been on case detection and treatment, but attention should include monitoring of the indigenous anopheles mosquitoes. there is a need for well-designed, multidisciplinary field research on diseases in their natural habitats to discern better the effect of weather on the natural maintenance cycles, disease incidence, and epidemic potential
What are the things focus on by reasearchers?
much of the information comes from epidemic investigations in which researchers focus on a single event and gather data for only a short time. a concerted effort to acquire more complete, long-term data sets is essential. resolving the many questions about associations among weather, climate, and disease will require the identification of model systems or diseases, which would enable the development of long-term, high-quality data sets, and sustained funding to make this research possible
malaria research is one example of our lack of understanding of the potential implications of climate change for the united states. it has been demonstrated for 50 years that when malaria is reintroduced into this country, the sociologic and ecologic conditions limit human-mosquito contact, and the public health system has been able to suppress disease outbreaks quickly. there have been no rigorous assessments of the behavior and vector competence of u.s. anopheles since the 1950s. public health focus has been on case detection and treatment, but attention should include monitoring of the indigenous anopheles mosquitoes. there is a need for well-designed, multidisciplinary field research on diseases in their natural habitats to discern better the effect of weather on the natural maintenance cycles, disease incidence, and epidemic potential. contemporary process-based mathematical models can be useful tools to explore the interaction of variables in the transmission dynamics of a disease. see table 3 for further recommendations for surveillance and modeling needs. certainly as a foundation for such modeling, improved epidemiologic surveillance at all levels of the health system is important. only limited databases are available to address the health impacts of extreme climate variability and change. much of the information comes from epidemic investigations in which researchers focus on a single event and gather data for only a short time. a concerted effort to acquire more complete, long-term data sets is essential. resolving the many questions about associations among weather, climate, and disease will require the identification of model systems or diseases, which would enable the development of long-term, high-quality data sets, and sustained funding to make this research possible. although it is likely that warming trends and other changes projected by global circulation models could affect vectorand rodent-borne diseases in the united states, the details and degree of these effects are uncertain. in addition, we do not know how projected climate change will affect the complex ecosystems required to maintain disease. understanding these issues will require considerable research on the influence of weather and climate on these pathogens in their natural transmission cycles. in the future, assessments that integrate global climate scenario-based analyses with local demographic and environmental factors are needed to guide comprehensive, long-term preventive health measures.
How can you sustain the risk takers?
in order for the sector to remain a reliable risk taker in future, changes in the risk landscape have to be identified and communicated at an early stage
What can help in mitigating the impacts of natural catastrophes?
an optimal outcome is achievable only through devoting significant effort to mitigate the impact of natural catastrophes
Why do you need sustainable measures? Name a few of them.
new, sustainable and effective protection measures need to be taken, to reduce the loss burden, including those that involve politics and society. these measures range from global climate protection, with the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, cutting back on energy consumption, and the development of new, environmentally friendly technologies; to mitigation and to the adaptation to extreme events
today's economy would not function without effective and efficient mechanisms to transfer risk. insurers and reinsurers play a key role in this process. in order for the sector to remain a reliable risk taker in future, changes in the risk landscape have to be identified and communicated at an early stage. in order to write business sustainably, impacts of climate change have to be systematically integrated into the risk assessment and management processes of the insurance industry. the risk premium which is the basis for the insurance premium, must reflect the changes in exposure, and the increased risk must be reflected in capital and capacity steering models. underwriting adjustments are however only part of the solution. an optimal outcome is achievable only through devoting significant effort to mitigate the impact of natural catastrophes. it is in the interest of all stakeholders, including insurers to create incentives for clients to implement protective changes and structural modifications for their properties. preventive building maintenance can considerably reduce storm damage. in conclusion, it should be noted that while the insurance industry is an important contributor, the climate question cannot be answered by one stakeholder group alone. it needs the participation of all relevant societal, political and economic stakeholders. new, sustainable and effective protection measures need to be taken, to reduce the loss burden, including those that involve politics and society. these measures range from global climate protection, with the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, cutting back on energy consumption, and the development of new, environmentally friendly technologies; to mitigation and to the adaptation to extreme events. examples are the protection of objects, including constructive measures, appropriate land-use planning and construction standards, risk and catastrophe management (early warning systems). it is only through combined efforts that the challenges of climate change can be met adequately. the technique introduced in this study and its application to realistic market portfolios offer exciting prospects for future research on the impact of climate change that is relevant for policy makers, scientists and economists.
What does this graph show?
shows estimates of the effect of randomly assigned agreement features on the probability of supporting an agreement using only data from the first conjoint comparison that was shown to respondents
What level of confidence in percentage do the bars show?
95
What are the estimates based on?
estimates are based on the regression of agreement support on dummy variables for values of the agreement dimensions with standard errors clustered by respondent
fig. s9 effect of agreement dimensions on public support for global climate change cooperation in france, germany, the united kingdom, and the united states for the first conjoint comparison. this plot shows estimates of the effect of randomly assigned agreement features on the probability of supporting an agreement using only data from the first conjoint comparison that was shown to respondents. estimates are based on the regression of agreement support on dummy variables for values of the agreement dimensions with standard errors clustered by respondent. the bars indicate 95% confidence intervals and the points without bars indicate the reference category for a given agreement dimension.
What the six objects could see?
the six subjects of each group could see a public screen on which instructions and the actual game was projected
They could know who were the players?
players were anonymous; each subject was assigned a pseudonym
the six subjects of each group could see a public screen on which instructions and the actual game was projected. they were told the following: i that each person had a starting account of eur 12 and could gain or lose dependent on his  her, and the other participants', decisions; ii that each player would be assigned a pseudonym, a new identity, for the whole game; and iii that they would play in two situations, a group game (public goods game) and a two-player game (indirect reciprocity game). players were anonymous; each subject was assigned a pseudonym by the computer for the whole session of 20 rounds (the players did not know this number) so that at any time, players could make their decisions contingent on the history of the game up to that time with one exception: in five anonymous climate public goods rounds (see below), pseudonyms were not shown. each player knew his  her name but did not know who had been assigned the other names; the subjects were separated by opaque partitions and communicated their decisions with silent (piezo) switches; they knew that they would obtain their money after the game in a way that did not disclose their anonymity.
Which of the major transformation factors in the world's trophical rain forests ?
major transformations due to deforestation, fragmentation, land use changes, and climate change
Role of demographic studies ?
demographic studies have documented effects of climatic variation on growth and mortality of tree species in moist and wet tropical old-growth forests (condit et al. 1995, clark et al. 2002, potts 2003), and these effects can directly impact species composition (slik 2004
the world's tropical rain forests are undergoing major transformations due to deforestation, fragmentation, land use changes, and climate change. throughout wet and dry tropical regions, second-growth forests are increasing in extent, economic importance, and conservation value (brown and lugo 1990, corlett 1995, de jong et al. 2001). due to the transition from dominance by light-demanding pioneer tree species toward dominance by shade-tolerant species (finegan 1996), second-growth forests are expected to exhibit more rapid changes in tree species composition than mature forests. these successional dynamics will be important in determining how tropical forests respond to global climate change and land use/land cover change. demographic studies have documented effects of climatic variation on growth and mortality of tree species in moist and wet tropical old-growth forests (condit et al. 1995, clark et al. 2002, potts 2003), and these effects can directly impact species composition (slik 2004). given the expectation that droughts related to
What is becoming mainstreamed internationally and nationally at policy level?
with the hfa, disaster risk reduction is becoming mainstreamed internationally and nationally at policy level
Which organizations are updating pertinent legislation and disaster management structures?
growing evidence exists that national governments are updating pertinent legislation and disaster management structures
Which is a organization beginning to take disaster risk reduction seriously with respect to their grant-awarding and lending practices?
also, bilateral donors and international fi nancial institutions such as the world bank are beginning to take disaster risk reduction seriously with respect to their grant-awarding and lending practices
with the hfa, disaster risk reduction is becoming mainstreamed internationally and nationally at policy level. also, bilateral donors and international fi nancial institutions such as the world bank are beginning to take disaster risk reduction seriously with respect to their grant-awarding and lending practices. growing evidence exists that national governments are updating pertinent legislation and disaster management structures. although the main aim currently is to improve resilience of at-risk communities, rather than concerns over coping with and adapting to climate-change-related extreme events, the concepts and practice of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation substantially overlap, with potential for fruitful convergence.168-170 the importance of governance issues and the idea that the eff ects of many natural disasters arising from extreme events are a function of government policies, structures, and decision making in development and emergency management spheres, rather than being technical failures or simple acts of god, are starting to be recognised.130,171
At what time was the diurnal microclimate dramatically altered?
the diurnal microclimate was dramatically altered during plantation establishment (clear-cut), became increasingly buffered though time as palms grew and the canopy closed, but never regained the stability of forest conditions fig. 5 
What percentage is leaf litter coverage in the forest?
leaf litter depth increased as plantations aged, but more importantly, the percentage of area covered by leaf litter was always low (47%), with the vast majority neatly stacked into even patchier piles (for comparison, leaf litter coverage is >90% in forests
Spatial effects are less pronounced than what type of changes?
spatial effects were less pronounced than lifecycle-related changes but suggested young plantations might be drier further from forests p 0.099; fig. 3 
there are complicated and sometimes opposing habitat trends through the oil palm plantation lifecycle. overall, there is a shift from taller ground vegetation in open young plantations to a more buffered microclimate, increased leaf litter, and a closed-canopy in old plantations fig. 5 ). the diurnal microclimate was dramatically altered during plantation establishment (clear-cut), became increasingly buffered though time as palms grew and the canopy closed, but never regained the stability of forest conditions fig. 5 ). leaf litter depth increased as plantations aged, but more importantly, the percentage of area covered by leaf litter was always low (47%), with the vast majority neatly stacked into even patchier piles (for comparison, leaf litter coverage is >90% in forests). the understory vegetation height and epiphyte density were greater in young plantations where the open canopy allowed more sunlight to penetrate wilson ludlow 1990 ), yet the ground area covered with vegetation remained constant between old and young plantations. we anticipated nocturnal conditions to be colder, windier and drier in plantations due to less standing biomass and less structural complexity to trap and re-radiate heat and moisture than forests siles harmand 2009 ). however, there were no microclimate differences between forests and plantations or between plantation types during the night. spatial effects were less pronounced than lifecycle-related changes but suggested young plantations might be drier further from forests p 0.099; fig. 3 ). we anticipated microclimate would be more extreme at 1 km away due to less spillover from forests and greater all-around exposure; however, our results showed only small changes that may require increased sampling to detect with statistical certainty. similarly, we hypothesized that epiphyte abundance and ground vegetation would decline further from forest source populations, yet there were no detectable spatial effects on any vegetation parameter (but note that species composition was not studied).
What could inappropriate habitat management lead to?
inappropriate habitat management could exacerbate biodiversity declines
Why is it important to understand future trends of climate and land use change?
despite this uncertainty in future trends of climate and land use change and in species responses to these interacting drivers, it is important to attempt to understand these effects, otherwise current conservation practice may become ineffective
What needs to be considered on a larger scale?
the location of protected areas may need to be re-assessed in light of shifts in species ranges and sea level rises
despite this uncertainty in future trends of climate and land use change and in species responses to these interacting drivers, it is important to attempt to understand these effects, otherwise current conservation practice may become ineffective. inappropriate habitat management could exacerbate biodiversity declines. for example, in temperate regions under a warmer climate, prescriptions for scrub clearance on sites vulnerable to high soil moisture deficit may reduce the availability of cooler moister microclimatic refuges which will allow species to persist. at a larger scale, the location of protected areas may need to be re-assessed in light of shifts in species ranges and sea level rises.177for example, populations of shore birds may start to use different geographical locations around a coastline and protected areas may need to move with them; although caution is required as evidence is emerging that new species may preferentially colonize existing protected areas.178in addition, suitable conditions may not be easy to create in new areas. for example, the past history of land management may be critical in maintaining low nutrient conditions or other habitat characteristics (e.g., old trees) which allow a wide range of species to persist.179,180
What are the decision-makers views on the species response to climate change?
decision-makers are invariably uncertain about the response of species to climate change
How many cases are considered?
we consider two cases
What type of cases are considered?
we consider two cases: a static case, in which the belief state is fixed and does not change over time; and an active adaptive case, in which the belief state is dynamic and updated with ongoing monitoring data
decision-makers are invariably uncertain about the response of species to climate change. incorporating uncertainty about how the system will respond to changes in climate alters both what drives our actions and when we should act. we capture this uncertainty with a belief state, w in our illustration w describes our belief that there will be no impact of climate change on the carrying capacity of the source population. we consider two cases: a static case, in which the belief state is fixed and does not change over time; and an active adaptive case, in which the belief state is dynamic and updated with ongoing monitoring data. the static case represents a likely scenario where insufficient resources are in hand to proceed with active adaptive management15,16,29and instead the best available knowledge regarding the impact of climate change is used to inform managed relocation. in the static case, we assume that the future population size is determined by the long-term carrying capacity in the final location of the population, which is a function of both the decision ('stay' or 'move') and the reality about the effects of climate change (table 1). we find that the expected long-term value of keeping the population in the source ('staying') is greater than the expected long-term value of moving when our belief in the no-impact model is above a critical threshold: w wc, where wc kd max - ks min) ks max - ks min). in other words, if our initial
How is livestock a critical component of agriculture?
for the income and nutrition of the poor in developing countries
What are some of the major risks of climate change to livestock?
it will change or extend the range of current diseases or, through unknown effects, create the conditions for the spread of new diseases to the livestock population
livestock are a critical component of agriculture, particularly for the income and nutrition of the poor in developing countries. however, the magnitude of the changes that are likely to befall livestock systems is a relatively neglected research area. little is known about the interactions of climate and increasing climate variability with other drivers of change in livestock systems and in broader development trends. while opportunities may exist for some households to take advantage of more conducive rangeland and cropping conditions, for example, the changes projected will pose very serious problems for many other households. furthermore, ruminant livestock themselves have important impacts on climate, through the emission of methane and through the land-use change that may be brought about by livestock keepers. nevertheless, meeting anticipated demand for meat and milk and other necessary livestock products in the coming decades will require attention to the supply of livestock feeds. climate change sharpens the edge of the production dilemma among human food, animal feed, and (potentially) energy on a finite amount of land. the issue of temperature and other abiotic stresses will have to be as carefully addressed in feed plants as in human crops. critically, altered climate regimes will alter the ranges of insect pests and vectors; a major risk of climate change is that it will change or extend the range of current diseases or, through unknown effects, create the conditions for the spread of new diseases to the livestock population. human health would also be threatened by an increase in zoonotic diseases. since the impacts of climate change on livestock disease may be extremely complex, integrated approaches must go well beyond climate and risk mapping and will require epidemiological reconnaissance, new diagnostic reagents, adapted or new livestock genotypes, and new veterinary and public health management services.
who is failing in planning for the global warming?
we all know that citizens and governments of the north are failing to respond to climate change. year in, year out, conferences of the parties fail to yield consensus or concrete plans to curtail developed nations' disproportionate contributions to global warming
Does any country leveled off the consumption and emission of carbon?
failure to act on materially meaningful policy is seen across the board: in no country have consumption or emissions leveled off. nations that do implement emissions reduction policies at the national level import resources and energy from nations that do not, displacing effects
How global warming is affecting the people?
direct, secondary and tertiary outcomes of climate change are now crashing, flooding, and generating scarcity among the most vulnerable people of the
columbia university sm3272@columbia.edu we all know that citizens and governments of the north are failing to respond to climate change. year in, year out, conferences of the parties fail to yield consensus or concrete plans to curtail developed nations' disproportionate contributions to global warming. in the united states, denial of climate change remains a rhetorically ''scientific'' position of dissent. failure to act on materially meaningful policy is seen across the board: in no country have consumption or emissions leveled off. nations that do implement emissions reduction policies at the national level import resources and energy from nations that do not, displacing effects. the displacement of effects is in fact a rampant and endemic feature of globalization. direct, secondary and tertiary outcomes of climate change are now crashing, flooding, and generating scarcity among the most vulnerable people of the
The researchers predict early season species' phenologies should be more sensitive to which forces?
prediction 1: early season species' phenologies should be more sensitive to abiotic forces, whereas mid-growing season species' phenologies should be governed by biotic forces
The researchers predict mid-growing  season species' phenologies should be more sensitive to which forces?
prediction 1: early season species' phenologies should be more sensitive to abiotic forces, whereas mid-growing season species' phenologies should be governed by biotic forces
What are two examples of species interaction the phenology of a species relative to other members of the community should affect?
the phenology of a species relative to other members of the community should have important ramifications for species interactions, such as competition for resources (favoring temporal displacement) or facilitation via shared pollinators (favoring temporal convergence) (fig. 3b
prediction 1: early season species' phenologies should be more sensitive to abiotic forces, whereas mid-growing season species' phenologies should be governed by biotic forces. as growing season length increases towards the tropics the relative within-season weight of abiotic vs. biotic forces on plant phenology should decrease. the growing season defines the window of time in which plant growth is possible, i.e. the fundamental temporal niche. while some tropical wet forests have year-round seasons (i.e. they are aseasonal), with arguably many temporal niches for species to occupy (mittelbach et al. 2007), most habitats, including many tropical forests, are seasonal. therefore most species must time their growth carefully to capture optimal conditions of sufficient warmth, irradiance and soil moisture (larcher, 2003), but also to minimize competition for limited resourses. in seasonal environments, phenology determines a species' ability to establish and persist within the local temporal niche (i.e. environmental filtering in relation to phenology, fig. 3a). the phenology of a species relative to other members of the community should have important ramifications for species interactions, such as competition for resources (favoring temporal displacement) or facilitation via shared pollinators (favoring temporal convergence) (fig. 3b). the period within the growing season that a species occupies should additionally determine the relative strength of abiotic vs. biotic forces driving phenology and thus the types of cues used to time events (fig. 2). the strength of abiotic forces often varies within a growing season: for example, there should be strong abiotic forces at the beginning of the growing season in temperate environments and the mid-growing season for environments characterized by mid-summer droughts because mis-timing has large fitness costs. for species with temporal niches occupying these portions of the growing season, the heavy costs of small miscalculations should promote high sensitivity to climate (producing a flexible phenology) because the calendar day of these abiotic forces varies dynamically in most systems from year to year. in contrast, species occupying other portions of the growing season may be less sensitive to climate and
Residential use of wood fuels is responsible for how many percent of global energy use?
many stoves currently on the market e ff ectively save fuel, based on data from both laboratory and fi eld settings. residential use of woodfuels accounts for approximately 7% of global energy use,10half of wood harvested worldwide annually,11and 6% of global deforestation,3mainly in speci fi c locations or " hotspots 
what is the result of the unsustainable harvest of wood fuels?
unsustainable harvesting of woodfuels degrades forests and in some locations leads to deforestation, reducing habitat, biodiversity, and uptake of atmospheric carbon dioxide
what alternative is possible to LPG?
ome advanced biomass systems, such as smallscale gasi fi er and biogas stoves, are even as e ffi cient as lpg systems
many stoves currently on the market e ff ectively save fuel, based on data from both laboratory and fi eld settings. residential use of woodfuels accounts for approximately 7% of global energy use,10half of wood harvested worldwide annually,11and 6% of global deforestation,3mainly in speci fi c locations or " hotspots " .12 - 14unsustainable harvesting of woodfuels degrades forests and in some locations leads to deforestation, reducing habitat, biodiversity, and uptake of atmospheric carbon dioxide. although burning sustainably harvested woodfuels is carbon dioxide neutral, it is not climate neutral as other emitted climate pollutants like black carbon (bc), methane, and other ozone-producing gases (e.g., carbon monoxide, volatile organic compounds) are not reabsorbed. the impact of cleaner cooking solutions on fuel use and air pollutant emissions varies by fuel type, stove design, cooking practice, and environmental conditions. recent studies have found that many of the stoves on the market reduce fuel use by 30 - 60%.4,15 - 18some advanced biomass systems, such as smallscale gasi fi er and biogas stoves, are even as e ffi cient as lpg systems.18less fuel use can lead to transformative bene fi ts  less burden for women or more income for families and less risk of violence for women and girls as they collect fuel in certain insecure areas. reduced fuel use due to increased heat transfer e ffi ciency (with equal or greater combustion e ffi ciency) can also mean fewer emissions of air pollutants that a ff ect health and climate and reduced impacts on forests, habitats, and biodiversity. but fuel savings alone are not enough  protecting public health likely requires dramatically reducing emissions from stoves.19although exposure patterns vary due to individual (age, socioeconomic status, time spent in cooking area) and household di ff erences (fuel/stove type, cookhouse ventilation, use of biomass for heating), use of solid fuels in traditional stoves results in air pollution exposure levels that can reach 50 times greater than the world health organization (who) guidelines for clean air, particularly for women and children who typically spend more time inside the home than men.20
Why does Croce believe history is not a scientific practice?
croce drew on the writings of ernst mach and henri poincare' to argue that "the concepts of the natural sciences are human constructs elaborated for human purposes
Would Croce believe trees to be real if people didn't think about them?
croce's idealism, roberts explains, "does not mean that rocks, for example, 'don't exist' without human beings to think them
/What was Croce using to analyze historic knowledge?
history subsumed under the concept of art
in discussing croce's 1893 essay "history subsumed under the concept of art," collingwood wrote, "croce, by denying [the german idea] that history was a science at all, cut himself at one blow loose from naturalism, and set his face towards an idea of history as something radically different from nature."17david roberts gives a fuller account of the more mature position in croce. croce drew on the writings of ernst mach and henri poincare' to argue that "the concepts of the natural sciences are human constructs elaborated for human purposes." "when we peer into nature," he said, "we find only ourselves." we do not "understand ourselves best as part of the natural world." so, as roberts puts it, "croce proclaimed that there is no world but the human world, then took over the central doctrine of vico that we can know the human world because we have made it." for croce, then, all material objects were subsumed into human thought. no rocks, for example, existed in themselves. croce's idealism, roberts explains, "does not mean that rocks, for example, 'don't exist' without human beings to think them. apart from human concern and language, they neither exist nor do not exist, since 'exist' is a human concept that has meaning only within a context of human concerns and purposes."18both croce and collingwood would thus enfold human history and nature, to the extent that the latter could be said to have history, into purposive human action. what exists beyond that does not "exist" because it does not exist for humans in any meaningful sense.
Why are the change in distribution of sea ice have the potential to have profound affects on polar bears ?
sea ice is the platform on which polar bears travel and hunt so that changes to its distribution, characteristics, and timing have the potential to have profound affects (stirling and derocher, 1993
What is the consequence of the complete melting of sea ice in some areas ?
most populations rely on terrestrial habitats for maternity denning and some take refuge on land in areas where the sea ice melts completely during summer
What are the preys of high altitude polar bears ?
polar bears are a specialised predator of phocid seals in the ice-covered arctic seas. while there is some geographic variation in their diet, their main prey are ringed seals phoca hispida and bearded seals erignathus barbatus (smith, 1980; stirling and archibald, 1977). other prey such as harp seals p. groenlandica ), white whales delphinapterus leucas ), narwhal monodon monoceros ), and walrus odobenus rosmarus are sometimes taken (smith, 1985; smith and sjare, 1990; calvert and stirling, 1990; derocher et al. 2002) but currently appear to be a less important energy source for most populations
introduction polar bears ursus maritimus are a classic k selected species having delayed maturation, small litter sizes, and high adult survival rates (bunnell and tait, 1981). sea ice is the platform on which polar bears travel and hunt so that changes to its distribution, characteristics, and timing have the potential to have profound affects (stirling and derocher, 1993). most populations rely on terrestrial habitats for maternity denning and some take refuge on land in areas where the sea ice melts completely during summer. some higher latitude populations, such as those in the chukchi and beaufort seas, retreat to the multiyear ice of the polar basin each summer. polar bears are a specialised predator of phocid seals in the ice-covered arctic seas. while there is some geographic variation in their diet, their main prey are ringed seals phoca hispida and bearded seals erignathus barbatus (smith, 1980; stirling and archibald, 1977). other prey such as harp seals p. groenlandica ), white whales delphinapterus leucas ), narwhal monodon monoceros ), and walrus odobenus rosmarus are sometimes taken (smith, 1985; smith and sjare, 1990; calvert and stirling, 1990; derocher et al. 2002) but currently appear to be a less important energy source for most populations. polar bears have successfully occupied virtually all
Are the Ethiopians aware of global warming?
generally, knowledge of climate change and global warming is very low in ethiopia with very few recognising the terms or the concepts
How, Ethiopians interpret climate change?
most ethiopians interpret the term 'climate change' to literally mean 'weather change', largely because the term 'climate' is little used or understood
What are the causes of climate change?
for the few ethiopians in urban areas even aware of human-caused climate change, global warming is inaccurately associated with their prior knowledge of ozone depletion
generally, knowledge of climate change and global warming is very low in ethiopia with very few recognising the terms or the concepts. most ethiopians interpret the term 'climate change' to literally mean 'weather change', largely because the term 'climate' is little used or understood. instead of linking climate change or global warming to the warming of the earth as a result of the emission of ghg, the majority of ethiopians connect it to localized increases in temperature caused by local activities that produce visible pollution or smoke, such as the burning of firewood for fuel. for the few ethiopians in urban areas even aware of human-caused climate change, global warming is inaccurately associated with their prior knowledge of ozone depletion.74
What three factors are simulated by the model over the sub-basins of the Mahanadi basin?
annual average precipitation, actual evapotranspiration and water yield as simulated by the model over the sub-basins of the mahanadi basin for control and ghg scenarios are given in figure 9
What factors show that there has been an increase in precipitation, water yield and evapotranspiration components predicted in all the sub-basins of Mahanadi
the variation in mean annual water balance components from control to ghg scenario, both in terms of change in individual values of these components as well as percentage of change over control show that there has been an increase in precipitation, water yield and evapotranspiration components predicted in all the sub-basins of mahanadi
Which figure depicts the flow duration curves for the control and GHG scenario?
figure 10 depicts the flow duration curves for the control and ghg scenario
annual average precipitation, actual evapotranspiration and water yield as simulated by the model over the sub-basins of the mahanadi basin for control and ghg scenarios are given in figure 9. the variation in mean annual water balance components from control to ghg scenario, both in terms of change in individual values of these components as well as percentage of change over control show that there has been an increase in precipitation, water yield and evapotranspiration components predicted in all the sub-basins of mahanadi. the impact of the climate change on the dependability of the water yield of the river basin has been analysed with respect to four arbitrarily selected levels of 25, 50, 75 and 90%. figure 10 depicts the flow duration curves for the control and ghg scenario. table 2 shows the values corresponding to the levels of 25, 50, 75 and 90% dependability. it may be noted that the flow for all the dependable levels has increased for the ghg scenario over the corresponding control flow magnitude but for the 50% level of dependability, at which the flow has marginally reduced.
Are developing countries viewed as active participants in dealing with climate change?
developing countries are portrayed as needing the help of the developed world if they are to deal with the impacts of climate change. there is little discussion of the agency of poor people in dealing with the impacts of climate change
Under what conditions do poor people have a voice in dealing with climate change?
only disaster strikes gives any voice to poor people in describing the impacts of climate change and how they might cope
Is the media well-informed about developing countries and climate change?
there is little question that the media could be better informed about these complex issues
secondly, in all the discourses other than optimism and self-righteous mitigation which don't really engage with the issue, developing countries are portrayed as needing the help of the developed world if they are to deal with the impacts of climate change. there is little discussion of the agency of poor people in dealing with the impacts of climate change, nor the complex interplay of factors that will influence vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in the developing world (adger et al., 2003). only disaster strikes gives any voice to poor people in describing the impacts of climate change and how they might cope, while there is very little differentiation in general regarding the 'developing world'. indeed, five of the ten unclassified articles did not conform to any of the discourses because they produced a more complex picture either of the route to adaptation, or of the actions and needs of different countries and groups of actors in the developing world. there is little question that the media could be better informed about these complex issues.
Where to focus when assessing the projected climate change and it's effects?
when assessing projected climate change and climate change effects, focus on similarities among different future climate and effects scenarios and the most likely trends, but remember that "all models are wrong" and the one "outlier" might be the most accurate
What to consider when assessing the sensitivity to climate change?
when assessing sensitivity to climate change, consider changes that have been observed with climatic variability in the past or that have been observed with recent warming, but also consider how these observations could be modified under a higher carbon dioxide concentration with impor tant physiological effects not represented in historical analogs
What to consider when assessing a model output with discrete time points?
for model output with discrete time points (e.g., 2050, 2100), consider the variability and uncertainty that exist between time points, and incorporate (or at least take note of) uncertainty in time series data and how it might affect applications of the data. * determine if it is possible or necessary to obtain downscaled data for a particular landscape, and recognize that coarse-scale data may be sufficient for most applications
guidelines for using models for vulnerability assessments -- attention to some general concepts about uncertainty associated with climate models and climate change effects models in natural resource management will assist vulnerability assessments: * use climate change projections from a range of models if possible, but also consider variation among models. * when assessing projected climate change and climate change effects, focus on similarities among different future climate and effects scenarios and the most likely trends, but remember that "all models are wrong" and the one "outlier" might be the most accurate. * for model output with discrete time points (e.g., 2050, 2100), consider the variability and uncertainty that exist between time points, and incorporate (or at least take note of) uncertainty in time series data and how it might affect applications of the data. * determine if it is possible or necessary to obtain downscaled data for a particular landscape, and recognize that coarse-scale data may be sufficient for most applications. * to interpret model output, focus on coarse-scale changes and relate them to likely changes in ecosystems and species in a given area by using local expertise and experience. * when assessing sensitivity to climate change, consider changes that have been observed with climatic variability in the past or that have been observed with recent warming, but also consider how these observations could be modified under a higher carbon dioxide concentration with impor tant physiological effects not represented in historical analogs.
Interpolated climate data have become increasingly important.Why?
interpolated climate data have become increasingly important for biological research and applications in forest management, conservation policy development, and infrastructure planning
What does every study in the field of climate change impact and adaptation research require?
virtually every study in the field of climate change impact and adaptation research requires a variety of data that may include climate normal data, projections from general circulation models (gcms), long-term historical climate records, or information about recent climate trends
In the present paper what do the researchers put forward?
in this paper, we compile and test a comprehensive set of historical and projected climate data for an extended area that now covers british columbia, alberta, saskatchewan, manitoba, and the yukon territory
with growing concern over climate change, interpolated climate data have become increasingly important for biological research and applications in forest management, conservation policy development, and infrastructure planning. virtually every study in the field of climate change impact and adaptation research requires a variety of data that may include climate normal data, projections from general circulation models (gcms), long-term historical climate records, or information about recent climate trends. such data are usually not easily accessible at the appropriate resolution, in a consistent format, and for a comprehensive set of relevant climate variables. in two previous papers we have developed models of climate normal data for british columbia and the yukon territories and a software solution to estimate many biologically relevant variables hamann and wang, 2005; wang et al., 2006 ). in this paper, we compile and test a comprehensive set of historical and projected climate data for an extended area that now covers british columbia, alberta, saskatchewan, manitoba, and the yukon territory.
What is meant by afforestation?
compared to bioenergy ccs, afforestation can be considered as low-tech land-based mitigation strategy, since no technical infrastructure for processing is needed. in magpie, afforestation is a managed regrowth of natural vegetation
What are the affects of regrowth of natural vegetation and how they are calculated?
regrowth of natural vegetation affects vegetation, litter and soil carbon stocks, which are calculated as the product of carbon density and afforestation area (see online supplementary data for details
How carbon density is derived?
vegetation, litter and soil carbon density of potential natural vegetation in 1995 at grid cell level is derived from lpjml fi gure s4). vegetation carbon density increases over time along s-shaped growth curves fi gure 1 ). the vegetation carbon density growth curves are based on a chapman - richards volume growth model (murray and von gadow 1993 gadow and hui 2001 ), which is parameterized using vegetation carbon density of potential natural vegetation fi gure s4(a)) and climate region speci fi c
compared to bioenergy ccs, afforestation can be considered as low-tech land-based mitigation strategy, since no technical infrastructure for processing is needed. in magpie, afforestation is a managed regrowth of natural vegetation. the regrowth is managed in that way as endemic seed sources are put in place manually as part of the land conversion process. regrowth of natural vegetation affects vegetation, litter and soil carbon stocks, which are calculated as the product of carbon density and afforestation area (see online supplementary data for details). vegetation, litter and soil carbon density of potential natural vegetation in 1995 at grid cell level is derived from lpjml fi gure s4). vegetation carbon density increases over time along s-shaped growth curves fi gure 1 ). the vegetation carbon density growth curves are based on a chapman - richards volume growth model (murray and von gadow 1993 gadow and hui 2001 ), which is parameterized using vegetation carbon density of potential natural vegetation fi gure s4(a)) and climate region speci fi c
Where is The Kenyan Amboseli National Park situated?
the kenyan amboseli national park is situated on the northern foothills of mt. kilimanjaro
How many recently-logged trees were found?
574 recently-logged cedar trees were counted, as well as over 800 other indigenous trees
What does the aerial survey reveal?
to summarize, the aerial survey revealed that the forest belt is threatened on its upper and lower border, thus shrinking on both sides
in addition, large tracts of indigenous forests on the north-western and northern slopes have been converted into forest plantation, using fast growing exotic tree species, such as pine and cypress. on the north western slopes, the expansion of the forest plantations has reduced the indigenous forest belt to a width of less than one kilometer. the majority of the clear felled compartments within the forest plantations have not been replanted as required by the normal rotation management. to summarize, the aerial survey revealed that the forest belt is threatened on its upper and lower border, thus shrinking on both sides. this further exacerbates the adverse impacts on the water balance of the mountain. changing climate patterns not only influence landscape characteristics but also animal changing climate patterns not only influence landscape characteristics but also animal distributions. the kenyan amboseli national park is situated on the northern foothills of mt. kilimanjaro. this area has experienced extensive habitat changes since the early 1960`s (altmann 2002). these include dramatic loss of tree and shrub cover which was partly caused by an increasing elephant population and temperature changes. the "natural" landscape alterations are further enhanced by a steadily growing masai population on the whole northern foothill of mt. kilimanjaro. according to rangers of kilimanjaro 29 during the survey, over 2,100 recently-logged camphor trees were counted. on the lower slopes bordering the half-mile forest strip, there was no recent logging of camphor trees since these areas have already been depleted. however, other indigenous tree species were targeted; some 4,300 recently-logged indigenous trees were recorded. as a result, evidence of 57 landslides in the heavily impacted ocotea forests was recorded. to the east, above marangu, 19 cleared fields have been opened up in the forest, and a large number of livestock was seen up to 8 kilometers deep into the forest. there were fewer observations recorded in the half-mile forest strip because this zone is virtually denuded of indigenous trees. some areas have been completely cleared. logging activities also impact heavily the east and west sides of the northern slopes; 574 recently-logged cedar trees were counted, as well as over 800 other indigenous trees.
Are Climate Change Different?
their relative modifications by climate change differ among models49,50
At what points does the equator intensify?
positive rainfall anomalies during enso warm phases over the central equatorial pacific will intensify52,53 because locally enhanced surface warming reduces the barrier to atmospheric convection
To what is the eastern equator moving?
associated with the enhanced convective response over the eastern equatorial pacific, the enso-forced pacific north american pattern tends to intensify and shift eastward in a warmer climate14
enso48. in addition, there is a delicate balance between amplifying and decaying feedbacks in the enso cycle, and their relative modifications by climate change differ among models49,50. lowfrequency enso modulation, independent of radiative forcing changes, also makes detection of the anthropogenic response a challenge51. nevertheless, there is increasing evidence that enso properties besides sst amplitude will change robustly because of the patterned increase in the background sst. for instance, positive rainfall anomalies during enso warm phases over the central equatorial pacific will intensify52,53 because locally enhanced surface warming reduces the barrier to atmospheric convection. in turn, more frequent extreme tropical rainfall events during el nino may affect weather patterns worldwide via atmospheric teleconnections. associated with the enhanced convective response over the eastern equatorial pacific, the enso-forced pacific north american pattern tends to intensify and shift eastward in a warmer climate14.
What are the timeindependent variables that made up the WBS3 simulation?
ba of the stand, the percentage of deciduous and coniferous trees, type of soil, maximum useable water storage capacity of the soil, slope angle, slope direction and geographical latitude
What can be concluded from the study of the beech trees located in tuttlingen?
we found a reasonably high correlation between daily sums of transpiration calculated from the wbs3 model and those determined from sap flow measurements
What model was used for this study?
using the water balance model wbs3, a forest-hydrological model that requires daily mean values of air temperature and daily total precipitation as meteorological inputs
the daily sums of transpiration of beech trees on a persquare-metre-ground-floor basis and ground evaporation were calculated using the water balance model wbs3, a forest-hydrological model that requires daily mean values of air temperature and daily total precipitation as meteorological inputs (matzarakis et al 2000). the timeindependent input variables of the wbs3 simulations are as follows: ba of the stand, the percentage of deciduous and coniferous trees, type of soil, maximum useable water storage capacity of the soil, slope angle, slope direction and geographical latitude. for evaporation, transpiration and interception of forests, validations of wbs3 showed a good agreement between the results from model calculations and measurements for different areas and slopes (fritsch 1998; matzarakis et al 2000). recently, a comparative assessment of the wbs3 and the more complex brook90 yielded satisfactory results. transpiration rates determined with the wbs3 model were also compared with the transpiration rates calculated from sap flow measurements with granier style sensors. for beech forests located on the two aspects of the experimental site tuttlingen, we found a reasonably high correlation between daily sums of transpiration calculated from the wbs3 model and those determined from sap flow measurements (nahm et al 2006).
Statistical significance in differences between Current Day and Potential Vegetation experiments are shown as ?
n neither test has significance >= 0.95; t student t-test has significance >= 0.95; w wilcoxon signed rank test has significance >= 0.95; and b both tests have significance >= 0.95
What was the global decrease in cloud ?
more than half of the all land value, reflecting decreases in cloud over oceans and sea ice in the current day experiment
What the lower global and regional cloud cover corresponded ?
with the reduced global and regional latent heat flux indicating a possible cloud response to the reduced evapo-transpiration with the current day parameters
statistical significance in differences between current day and potential vegetation experiments are shown as: n neither test has significance >= 0.95; t student t-test has significance >= 0.95; w wilcoxon signed rank test has significance >= 0.95; and b both tests have significance >= 0.95. the global decrease in cloud cover however, was more than half of the all land value, reflecting decreases in cloud over oceans and sea ice in the current day experiment. this had impacts on radiation budgets beyond the land surface and areas of land cover change. the all land and regional changes in cloud cover were all decreases except for europe which had an increase. the lower global and regional cloud cover corresponded with the reduced global and regional latent heat flux indicating a possible cloud response to the reduced evapo-transpiration with the current day parameters.
Is the conflict in Darfur related to climate change?
similarly, a recent report by the united nations environment programme (unep), which received extensive media coverage and obtained political influence, also draws a link between climate change, desertification, and the conflict in darfur (unep, 2007
By how much has average rainfall decreased in Darfur between 1946 & 2005?
the report attaches a great deal of importance to the fact that the average rainfall in some parts of darfur has decreased by 16-34%, if the periods 1946-75 and 1976-2005 are compared, failing to mention that since the mid-1980s, rainfall has increased again (see also kevane gray, 2008
What kind of terrain does the Sahel region offer?
this study sets out to explore the alleged relationship between climatic conditions and conflict in the sahel using the inland delta of the niger river in mali as a case. this is a hotspot area in west africa in terms of land-use conflicts. it consists of a large wetland area in the midst of a dry savanna, and it is highly valuable to rice farmers, pastoralists, and fishers alike
similarly, a recent report by the united nations environment programme (unep), which received extensive media coverage and obtained political influence, also draws a link between climate change, desertification, and the conflict in darfur (unep, 2007). the report attaches a great deal of importance to the fact that the average rainfall in some parts of darfur has decreased by 16-34%, if the periods 1946-75 and 1976-2005 are compared, failing to mention that since the mid-1980s, rainfall has increased again (see also kevane gray, 2008). both these examples illustrate how traditional malthusian factors and climate change are often merged into one story of 'environmental conflict'. this study sets out to explore the alleged relationship between climatic conditions and conflict in the sahel using the inland delta of the niger river in mali as a case. this is a hotspot area in west africa in terms of land-use conflicts. it consists of a large wetland area in the midst of a dry savanna, and it is highly valuable to rice farmers, pastoralists, and fishers alike. land-use conflicts in the delta are frequent and usually concern access to water for livestock, irrigation, fishing grounds, or access to a plot of land for farming or grazing. the analysis consists of two components. first, we present and assess a new dataset of more than 800 mostly nonviolent land-use disputes that appeared in the regional court of appeal in se'vare' between 1992 and 2009. a simple comparison of the court data with statistics on contemporaneous meteorological conditions in the region offers little support for the notion that climate variability drives intercommunal conflicts. although there seems to be some overlap in the timing of unusually wet periods and subsequent increases in land-use disputes, the overall downward trend in such cases in the court of appeal cannot be explained by climatic conditions. we then present a qualitative study of one of the many farmer-herder conflicts found in the delta, which serves to provide a more thorough assessment of the role of environmental conditions and to illustrate some of the causal processes that are descriptive of many of the conflicts in the area. again, we find that factors other than those directly related to environmental conditions and scarcity of subsistence resources dominate as plausible explanations of the violent conflict. we argue that three structural factors are the main drivers behind this conflict: agricultural encroachment on key productive resources for pastoralism and on livestock corridors, decentralization creating a political vacuum, and rent-seeking among government officials.
Which community is most sensitive to temperature increases?
elevational ranges are smaller at low latitudes for most groups and, as a consequence, tropical communities appear to be more sensitive to temperature increases compared with temperate communities
Which community has the most disassembly?
under site-specific temperature projections, we generally found greater community disassembly in tropical compared with temperate communities, although this varied by dispersal assumptions
The height of the mountain can affect what?
mountain height can impact the amount of community disassembly, with greater change occurring on smaller mountains
both tropical and temperate species are responding to global warming through range shifts, but our understanding of the consequences of these shifts for whole communities is limited. here, we use current elevational range data for six taxonomic groups spanning 90  in latitude to examine the potential impacts of climate-driven range shifts on community change, or  disassembly  across latitude. elevational ranges are smaller at low latitudes for most groups and, as a consequence, tropical communities appear to be more sensitive to temperature increases compared with temperate communities. under site-specific temperature projections, we generally found greater community disassembly in tropical compared with temperate communities, although this varied by dispersal assumptions. mountain height can impact the amount of community disassembly, with greater change occurring on smaller mountains. finally, projected community disassembly was higher for ectotherms than endotherms, although the variation among ectotherms was greater than the variation separating endotherms and ectotherms. keywords dispersal, ectotherms, elevational gradient, endotherms, extinction risk, geographical range, latitude, mountain biodiversity, range shifts, tropics.
When did the lakes show low levels of charcoal accumulation?
in the late glacial period and early holocene
When did maximum BCHAR levels occur?
maximum bchar levels generally occurred between c 2000 and 1000 cal. yr
What was higher in the early and middle Holocene?
variability in bchar
standardized bchar from little, bolan, crater, bluff and cedar lakes generally showed low levels of charcoal accumulation in the late glacial period and early holocene, intermediate levels in the middle holocene and higher charcoal accumulation during the late holocene (figure 4a). variability in bchar was higher in the early and middle holocene than in the late holocene. maximum bchar levels generally occurred between c 2000 and 1000 cal. yr bp, and values declined to present after 1000 cal. yr bp. averaged ap percentages for these five records increased during the late glacial period and then remained relatively constant until /2500 cal. yr bp. ap percentages generally declined from /2500 to 250 cal. yr bp, when they decreased sharply and then increased to present. records from lost and taylor lakes (less than 40 km apart) showed some synchronous bchar variations during the last
Why some authors defend that natural disturbance regimes, like fires, should be maintained?
because several fire suppression programmes have caused the decline of endangered plant species
Fire set by human agency is a threat for whom or what?
many ecosystems, especially in the tropics
Why assisted migration of plant species is a controversial idea to solve that problem?
because of the potential risk that human-aided translocation of species introduces invasive species
some authors argue that natural disturbance regimes (e.g., fires) should be maintained because several fire suppression programmes have caused the decline of endangered plant species (noss 2001; hansen et al. 2003). however, it is also recognised that fires set by human agency are a threat for many ecosystems, especially in the tropics. a right balance must be found between suppressing fire, letting natural fires burn, and using prescribed burning for reducing the risk of high-intensity fires. the assisted migration of plant species to areas where climate is projected to become suitable is also a controversial measure,2 because of the potential risk that human-aided translocation of species introduces invasive species (mueller and hellmann 2008).3
numbers of database provides trade and production statistics?
this database provides trade and production statistics for more than 50 regions and 50 commodities. the model covers 26 regions which are aggregated to the 11 trading regions.3
comprehensive human activities models must begin to?
more comprehensive human activities models must begin to interact with the dynamics of physical, chemical, and biological sub-systems through a diverse set of contributing activities, feedbacks, and responses
WIAGEM is benchmarked to the base  which year ?
wiagem is benchmarked to the base year 1992
furthermore, uncertainty costs, investment decisions under uncertainties and forecast uncertainties are only a few examples of economic uncertainties that make a concrete cost and benefit evaluation of climate change extremely tentative. furthermore, socioeconomic behavior is extremely tainted with societal randomness and variability that is difficult to predict. most importantly, there is a need to link physical climate and biogeochemical system models more effectively, and in turn improve coupling with descriptions of human activities. currently, human influences are generally treated only through emission scenarios providing climate system external forcings. more comprehensive human activities models must begin to interact with the dynamics of physical, chemical, and biological sub-systems through a diverse set of contributing activities, feedbacks, and responses. the model wiagem is a first attempt to reduce the above described uncertainties by combining a simplified climatic and ecologic model with a detailed economic feedback system. the model includes all greenhouse gases and potential net emissions changes due to sink potential from land use change and de-forestation. the climatic model is based on general interrelations between energy and nonenergy related emissions, temperature changes and sea level variations, all inducing substantial market and non-market damage cost economic impacts. the uncertainty about data quality is reduced because the model is based on a detailed economic database representing a well known and scientifically accepted economic database. model and parameter uncertainties are covered by choosing an innovative modeling approach and including parameter sensitivity analysis. of course, not all uncertainties can be covered. however, there is a need to develop more sophisticated economic models that cover ecological and climatic interlinkages. wiagem is a first attempt to fill this gap. 3. the model wiagem wiagem is an integrated assessment model integrating an economy model based on a dynamic intertemporal general equilibrium approach combined with an energy market model and climatic submodel covering a time horizon of 50 years. this model is incremented into five-year time steps.2the basic idea behind this modeling approach is the evaluation of market and non-market impacts induced by climate change. wiagem is benchmarked to the base year 1992. benchmark data determine the parameter and coefficients of the ces production, demand and utility functions. to calibrate the model, we determine the reference level of emissions growth, radiative forcing, energy production and energy and non-energy related trade. prices and quantities of all non-energy data are based on the 1995 gtap version 4, with adjustments to gtap version 5. this database provides trade and production statistics for more than 50 regions and 50 commodities. the model covers 26 regions which are aggregated to the 11 trading regions.3
The standard deviation of D ZUCAR PPC at 8 km altitude is ____ m and increases to about ____ m at 30 km altitude.
the standard deviation of d zucar ppc at 8 km altitude is about 10 m and increases to about 50 m at 30 km altitude
The above comparisons from different centers are based on global means from which period in time?
the above comparisons from different centers are based on global means from 2002 to 2008
In this section we compare what differences in order to investigate small but nonzero differences among centers at different latitudes and times?
in this section we compare zonal mean differences in order to investigate small but nonzero differences among centers at different latitudes and times
in figure 3g we depict geopotential height differences for ucar d zucar ppc ). the standard deviation of d zucar ppc at 8 km altitude is about 10 m and increases to about 50 m at 30 km altitude. the results of the global comparison for pressure and geopotential height are also listed in table 2. 4.2. comparison of mean zonal differences the above comparisons from different centers are based on global means from 2002 to 2008. in this section we compare zonal mean differences in order to investigate small but nonzero differences among centers at different latitudes and times. similar to ho et al. [2009a], we use the following equation to generate zonal average differences for ro-derived variables for individual centers:
How much is spent each year on health services?
more than $100 billion is spent each year on health services
Do Canadians view health care as important?
health and health services are extremely important to canadians
Is climate change good or bad for the earth?
it is expected that climate change would make it more difficult to maintain our health and well-being in the future
health and health services are extremely important to canadians. physical, mental and social wellbeing are key indicators of quality of life, and more than $100 billion is spent each year on health services. although health is influenced by a range of social and economic factors, our country's variable climatic conditions also play a role. seasonal trends are apparent in illness and death, while extreme climate events and weather disasters have both acute and chronic health effects. the impacts of future climate change on health and the healthcare sector in canada would be both direct (e.g., changes in temperature-related morbidity and mortality) and indirect (e.g., shifts in vector-borne diseases). there would be some benefits for human health, as well as many challenges see table 2). it is expected that climate change would make it more difficult to maintain our health and well-being in the future. the impacts on the more vulnerable groups of the population, including the elderly, the young, the infirm and the poor, are of particular concern. higher temperatures are expected to increase the occurrence of heat-related illnesses such as heat exhaustion and heat stroke, and exacerbate existing conditions related to circulatory-, respiratoryand nervous-system problems. an increase in heat waves, particularly in urban areas, could cause significant increases in the number of deaths.
Where do find the greatest consistency in the spatial variability of flow across the entire glacier snout
the greatest consistency is in the lowermost 16 km of the glacier
For the Up-glacier, the profiles separate into approximately how many groups? Explain them
up-glacier, the profiles separate into two approximate groups: one group reflecting dynamics through the 1990s to 2004/05; and the second group reflecting conditions from 2004/05 to 2008
annual velocity profiles show a strong consistency in the spatial variability of flow across the entire glacier snout (fig. 5). the greatest consistency is in the lowermost 16 km of the glacier, where multi-annual profiles largely replicate one another. up-glacier, the profiles separate into two approximate groups: one group reflecting dynamics through the 1990s to 2004/05; and the second group reflecting conditions from 2004/05 to 2008. within the latter group, velocities during 2005 were greatest, with an apparent speed-up of  20-25% immediately down-glacier of concordia compared with earlier measurements. in recent years, velocities appear to have decreased again, although locally they remain  15-20% greater than displacements measured through the 1990s and early 2000s. up-glacier of concordia, all profiles display a more consistent pattern, with very little detectable interannual variability.
why robust studies are important?
it is important that robust studies of adaptation cost are, in future, based upon case studies
what type of company reporting on this?
the world bank and mckinsey will be shortly reporting on this (world bank, 2009; mckinsey, 2009
How much it costs?
costs of adapting to varying amounts of impact should be analysed, thus providing a choice range for preparedness to pay
it is important that robust studies of adaptation cost are, in future, based upon case studies that cover a wide range of places and sectors, and support top-down analyses of the kind evaluated here. the world bank and mckinsey will be shortly reporting on this (world bank, 2009; mckinsey, 2009). the time period and expected climate changes need specifying (as they were in the unfccc study), and results for multiple timeframes would be useful. non-climate trends need careful portrayal, especially the future levels of non-climate investment. costs of adapting to varying amounts of impact should be analysed, thus providing a choice range for preparedness to pay; and there needs to be some analysis of the residual impact that adaptation is not likely to avoid, and the resulting damage costs that we need to anticipate.
What does scenario A apply to?
scenario a applies a ghg emissions tax and forest carbon sequestration incentive in annex i countries
What does scenario B concentrate on?
scenario b extends the forest carbon sequestration incentive to all countries
What does scenario C apply to?
scenario c applies the ghg emissions tax and forest carbon sequestration incentive in all countries
results the global impacts of market-based mitigation policies on livestock and other land-using sectors are estimated under three ghg price scenarios, each re fl ecting successively greater levels of participation by countries and sectors. as outlined in table 1, scenario a applies a ghg emissions tax and forest carbon sequestration incentive in annex i countries. scenario b extends the forest carbon sequestration incentive to all countries. finally, scenario c applies the ghg emissions tax and forest carbon sequestration incentive in all countries; however, non-annex i producers receive a refund for their tax expenses. given our interest in the implications of the different policy scenarios, we focus on only one ghg tax/incentive: 27 $us/tco2eq (or 100 $us per ton carbon). this price is consistent with current market prices and policy discussions.ss
What is the reasoning behind low loading systems (e.g. activated sludge systems of the extended aeration variant, low rate trickling filters)?
the reasoning of these systems is to supply a minimum quantity of substrate to the organisms, in order to stimulate endogenous respiration
What does endogenous respiration in low loading systems lead to?
this leads to a self metabolism of the microorganisms, that is, they undergo a digestion of the cellular mass in the reactor itself
Is the concentration of the substrate in the effluent very high or very low?
the concentration of the substrate in the effluent is very low
low loading systems (e.g. activated sludge systems of the extended aeration variant, low rate trickling filters). the reasoning of these systems is to supply a minimum quantity of substrate to the organisms, in order to stimulate endogenous respiration. this leads to a self metabolism of the microorganisms, that is, they undergo a digestion of the cellular mass in the reactor itself. besides the partial stabilisation of the cellular mass, the concentration of the substrate in the effluent is very low. the volume required for the reactor is larger than for the high loading systems. conversion processes of organic and inorganic matter 383
Were women treated fairly by the National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme?
women were paid lower wages than men for their work in nregs projects and sometimes were unaware of how much they made as their pay usually went directly to their husbands. agricultural support to the farmers much less than one quarter of respondents reported receiving assistance (information, trainings, materials) from the government agricultural department, although this is significantly gendered with 36 percent of men mentioning the agricultural department and only 22 percent of women mentioning it. the type of support received was also gendered: 23 percent of men and 7.5 percent of women reported receiving agricultural information. in qualitative focus groups, farmers reported that the ex
What type of information were these woman lacking in comparison to men?
men and women appeared to have different sources of information about the weather, which has implications for how information on weather and seasonal variability is disseminated to community members. table 5 outlines these differences and highlights the importance of television and relationships with neighbours in obtaining information related to weather forecasts. in particular, women appeared more likely than men to rely on neighbours for information, whereas men appeared more likely than women to rely on traditional knowledge. these sources of information were important factors in disseminating information to farmers on responding to weather events and seasonal climate conditions
Were all women aware of the unbalance of resources and wages?
women were paid lower wages than men for their work in nregs projects and sometimes were unaware of how much they made as their pay usually went directly to their husbands
working in the national rural employment guarantee scheme was clearly very important to the livelihoods of the study population. more than half (61 percent) noted that they or a family member did nregs work during 2008-9. the farmers, especially women, did not have any idea of the allocated budget for their village; they only knew that there was work available the next day in a designated farm. women were paid lower wages than men for their work in nregs projects and sometimes were unaware of how much they made as their pay usually went directly to their husbands. agricultural support to the farmers much less than one quarter of respondents reported receiving assistance (information, trainings, materials) from the government agricultural department, although this is significantly gendered with 36 percent of men mentioning the agricultural department and only 22 percent of women mentioning it. the type of support received was also gendered: 23 percent of men and 7.5 percent of women reported receiving agricultural information. in qualitative focus groups, farmers reported that the extension networks were poor and considered the advice not to be appropriate. with regards to receiving information related to on-farm production, 33 percent of respondents said they receive information on cropping patterns/practices, however this was significantly gendered with 47 percent of men and 21 percent of women responding positively. most agreed that more information was given to farmers with larger land holdings (who happened to always be male); there was a general perception that women farmers did not receive information (this was not necessarily related to the size of land holding but primarily due to gender) although this was not confirmed in the quantitative analysis. the expectations of government assistance also appeared to be gendered; more men than women reported knowing about and receiving timely information on weather and irrigation schedules; whereas women were less aware of the availability of such assistance. men and women appeared to have different sources of information about the weather, which has implications for how information on weather and seasonal variability is disseminated to community members. table 5 outlines these differences and highlights the importance of television and relationships with neighbours in obtaining information related to weather forecasts. in particular, women appeared more likely than men to rely on neighbours for information, whereas men appeared more likely than women to rely on traditional knowledge. these sources of information were important factors in disseminating information to farmers on responding to weather events and seasonal climate conditions.
Is this article protected by copyright or not?
this article is protected by copyright. all rights reserved
What is discussed in Ncube et al (2012) ?
for example, ncube et al. (2012) discuss the example of local government infrastructure in south africa to provide basic commodities such as water and energy
A strong relationship between water and energy demand and rainfall variability was found out: what was concluded from this?
they found a strong relationship between water and energy demand and rainfall variability, and concluded that local governments will increasingly need to be proactive in planning for adaptation to climate change, because of its influence on their operations and budgets (ncube et al., 2012
this article is protected by copyright. all rights reserved. adaptive capacity of people, at various levels of decision-making from the individual up to the national and regional. institutions play a key role in enabling such adaptation. increases in variability, which are largely unpredictable in the short and long term, will force institutions (defined loosely as social patterns including organizations) to be more proactive and flexible, qualities that are difficult to foster (gupta et al., 2012). this applies not only to the national level; for example, ncube et al. (2012) discuss the example of local government infrastructure in south africa to provide basic commodities such as water and energy. they found a strong relationship between water and energy demand and rainfall variability, and concluded that local governments will increasingly need to be proactive in planning for adaptation to climate change, because of its influence on their operations and budgets (ncube et al., 2012).
Is it difficult to find sufficiently rural sites the define the background temperature trend free of urban influence?
in such regions it may be difficult to find sufficiently rural sites with which to define the background temperature trend free of urban influence
Is the sea surface temperature included in estimates of global tempurature trends?
the sea surface temperatures (ssts) from this vast area are included in estimates of global temperature trends.17
What is the impact of urban development affect in some regions, like China?
in some regions, such as china, the impact of urban development on temperature trends is likely to be greater than in the world as a whole, owing to concentrated urban development in the region
in some regions, such as china, the impact of urban development on temperature trends is likely to be greater than in the world as a whole, owing to concentrated urban development in the region. in such regions it may be difficult to find sufficiently rural sites with which to define the background temperature trend free of urban influence.2,12,14,15however, for the world as a whole, a global climate observing system (gcos) surface network (gsn) has been established,16choosing the stations through a scoring scheme (table 1) which militates against urban sites both explicitly and implicitly through the weight given to homogeneity and to membership of the world meteorological organization set of climate reference stations. furthermore, the influence of urban heat islands on estimates of global warming is limited by the fact that about 70% of the earth's surface is ocean and is absolutely unaffected by urban warming. the sea surface temperatures (ssts) from this vast area are included in estimates of global temperature trends.17
Name 3 areas that Dr. Nancy Turner's talk would explore
the talk will explore indigenous knowledge, innovation for climate change, biodiversity and food security strategies at local and global levels
How has Dr. Nancy Turner worked  with First Nation Elders?
dr. nancy turner has spent her career working closely with first nation elders, her teachers, collaborators and friends to record their knowledge and understanding of ecology, resources and plants
can traditional knowledge systems help with climate change? location: first nations longhouse, sty wet tan, the great hall, 1985 west mall, vancouver, bc v6t 1z4, canada ubc botanical garden, the first nations house of learning and the ubc faculty of science are pleased to present "indigenous knowledge for a changing climate" with dr. nancy turner. the climate is changing faster than we are and urgent action for mitigation and adaptation solutions are needed. this presentation invites ethnobotanist dr. nancy turner to share her stories of the intersection between traditional knowledge systems and climate change solutions. the talk will explore indigenous knowledge, innovation for climate change, biodiversity and food security strategies at local and global levels. dr. nancy turner has spent her career working closely with first nation elders, her teachers, collaborators and friends to record their knowledge and understanding of ecology, resources and plants. she is professor emeritus in the school of environmental studies at the university of victoria and has numerous awards and publications. she completed her phd at ubc botanical garden in the early 1970s with dr. roy taylor. she shares her received teachings from indigenous elders and communities showcasing examples of first nations use of resources and technologies for food, shelter and medicines. for more info and to register visit our website.
What is the strongest evidence for the past occupation of any area by a particular species?
the strongest evidence for the past occupation of any area by a particular species is provided by the fossil record
What are some modern approaches to determine past climate relics?
isotopic variation from ice cores, speleothems, high-resolution fossil records, or marine and lake sediment composition
What are the three  classes of extant relicts that have been considered most commonly?
a tertiary relicts receded with the increasingly drier and cooler climatic conditions during the late tertiary and early quaternary, b glacial relicts were more widely distributed during quaternary cold stages and have experienced significant range contractions since the lgm, and c postglacial relicts persist in regions of the world that experienced warmer periods in the early holocene than those experienced today
the term climate relict was coined in the early days of biogeography and still features in most textbooks of the field. it has traditionally been applied to species whose geographic distribution has contracted relatively recently in earth's history owing to changes in climate. the concept stems from a central goal of historical biogeography: to infer past environmental conditions from changes in species distributions. the strongest evidence for the past occupation of any area by a particular species is provided by the fossil record, yet most species hardly appear as fossils. moreover, among those species that do have a fossil record, data are often too sparse, uneven, or ambiguous to allow detailed biogeographic interpretations and reconstructions. therefore, the presence of species outside their typical range was, until relatively recently, an important complementary source of information for inferring past climates. the status of a species as a climate relict has typically been inferred on biogeographic grounds, that is, using its current geographic distribution and its association with specific habitats. three classes of extant relicts have been considered most commonly (cox moore 2010): a tertiary relicts receded with the increasingly drier and cooler climatic conditions during the late tertiary and early quaternary, b glacial relicts were more widely distributed during quaternary cold stages and have experienced significant range contractions since the lgm, and c postglacial relicts persist in regions of the world that experienced warmer periods in the early holocene than those experienced today. although the use of climate relicts in biogeography has historically been instructive and valuable, the approach has now largely been superseded by the discovery of much more powerful physical, chemical, and biological proxies for past climatic conditions such as isotopic variation from ice cores, speleothems, high-resolution fossil records, or marine and lake sediment composition (wanner et al. 2008, pound et al. 2011). at the same time, molecular methods have allowed us to infer historical population and range dynamics with previously unknown detail and
What are correlative niche models based on?
correlative niche models are based on analyses that relate the occurrence of a species in places to features of those places
Can good models fail?
even ''good'' models may fail to provide accurate projections when extended to other places or times
Can you measure all of the factors that determine a species?
one can never measure all of the factors that determine a species' niche, and the possibility that unmeasured niche dimensions may account for the observed distribution has plagued niche analyses for decades and generated considerable debate
correlative niche models are based on analyses that relate the occurrence of a species in places to features of those places. using such models to project future distributions assumes that the variables included in the models do in fact reflect the niche requirements of a species. one can never measure all of the factors that determine a species' niche, and the possibility that unmeasured niche dimensions may account for the observed distribution has plagued niche analyses for decades and generated considerable debate (8). even ''good'' models may fail to provide accurate projections when extended to other places or times (24).
Who uses a global damage function and what does it assume?
mastrandrea schneider (2001) use a global damage function which simply assumes higher damages would result when abrupt climate changes occur
What would reduce adaptability and thus increase damages?
the advent of abrupt climatic changes would reduce adaptability and thus increase damages
Which words imply a quite different time-scale to a scientist reconstructing the Holocene?
the words 'abrupt' or 'rapid' imply a quite different time-scale to a scientist reconstructing the holocene
abrupt climate change: can society cope? 2013 similarly, mastrandrea schneider (2001) use a global damage function which simply assumes higher damages would result when abrupt climate changes occur. the authors admit that such a function is arbitrary and not based on any bottom-up analyses. they claim such a global function is plausible, test the sensitivity of their analysis to different assumed values, but maintain the belief that even in a distant society [a century or more from now], the advent of abrupt climatic changes would reduce adaptability and thus increase damages. mastrandrea schneider (2001, p. 436) but what would these damages actually be? fisheries, agriculture, wildlife and forestry are the sectors most frequently cited (cf. keller et al 2000; nerc 2002) in support of major impacts from a thc collapse, yet using conventional measures, these sectors account for a tiny proportion of economic production and activity in the countries of the north atlantic periphery. the true value of these ecosystems and services will of course be higher than a simple gdp measure (see balmford et al 2002), yet it remains hard to argue, without strong evidence, that 100 or more years from now it is abrupt climate change that will be the factor that most damages remaining fish stocks, new systems of agricultural production, or ecosystem functioning. it is also important to recognize in this context that the significance of future climate change in any economic analysis, and hence its influence on near-term policy, depends fundamentally on discount rates. this is especially true in the case of abrupt climate change causing possible damage far into the future (2100 or beyond). the present value of such enhanced damages, however calculated, is particularly sensitive to discounting. mastrandrea schneider (2001) discuss this problem in the context of abrupt climate change and explore alternative formulations. b social analyses what has been lacking in the few studies that have been made of the implications of abrupt climate change in the north atlantic is an appreciation of the nature of adaptation, the role of information in decision making, and how that information is perceived and with what authority. more fundamentally still, the lack of serious social science analysis of abrupt climate change and its implications has meant that it has remained possible for different research communities, and hence for decisionmakers and the public, to imply quite different things by using the same language. for example, the words 'abrupt' or 'rapid' imply a quite different time-scale to a scientist reconstructing the holocene or the quaternary from that of a social scientist analysing social, political or institutional change. in the former case, rapid changes are measured in terms of decades or centuries, as in the following quotes. superimposed on these general trends are abrupt events on time-scales of decades and centuries that strongly affect human societies gasse (2002, p. 538)
What is one of the clear messages from climate research to date?
one of the clear messages from climate change research to date is that climatic extremes will become more frequent, and in some instances (such as heat waves) more intense karl et al., 2008 
Which researcher(s) have made this claim?
karl et al., 2008
What entities will be taxed more frequently if these projections bear out?
if these projections bear out, public and private resources to prepare for, deal with, and recover from extreme events will be taxed more frequently
one of the clear messages from climate change research to date is that climatic extremes will become more frequent, and in some instances (such as heat waves) more intense karl et al., 2008 ). if these projections bear out, public and private resources to prepare for, deal with, and recover from extreme events will be taxed more frequently. time between events will become shorter, increasing the potential for maladaptations; hasty responses may reduce vulnerability in the short-term but increase it in the long-term, or create new and unintended negative consequences. historical experiences with disasters also suggest that local resources are typically insufficient to deal with large disasters, thus requiring supra-local resources. if extreme events become more widespread, however, questions arise as to the reliability of this sort of external support. both interactive, scenario-based experiments and modeling studies that investigate how response capacity could fare in a highfrequency-extremes future would reveal important new insights on vulnerability and on how to improve a community's, state's, or nation's emergency response capacity and long-term plans to increase resilience.
How can knowledge gaps be addressed in the short term through monitoring and research? Many uncertainties remain regarding climate change
as discussed throughout this report, many uncertainties remain with respect to climate change and its potential impacts on water resources
What can be done to improve planning and address gaps in the state of practice? Additional research can narrow uncertainties, provide information in more usable forms
additional research may narrow uncertainties, provide information in more useable forms, or develop more robust strategies for incorporating uncertainty into decisionmaking
What can happen given the additional research? It will not completely eliminate the uncertainty
however, additional research will not eliminate uncertainty entirely, and robust and flexible operations and planning approaches can be used to help manage water resources effectively
this chapter addresses the following questions that agencies might consider as they strategize efforts to build adaptive capacity relative to the possibilities of future climate change: how might knowledge gaps be addressed in the near term through monitoring and research? what can be done to improve planning and address state-of-practice gaps? where are there opportunities for interagency collaboration and how can these interagency activities be leveraged to address knowledge gaps? as discussed throughout this report, many uncertainties remain with respect to climate change and its potential impacts on water resources. this chapter identifies the major gaps that must be bridged to achieve success in addressing the effects of climate change. additional research may narrow uncertainties, provide information in more useable forms, or develop more robust strategies for incorporating uncertainty into decisionmaking. however, additional research will not eliminate uncertainty entirely, and robust and flexible operations and planning approaches can be used to help manage water resources effectively despite this uncertainty. this chapter begins with a discussion of knowledge gaps and potential research priorities (section 6.1). the need for continued (and possibly expanded) monitoring is discussed in section 6.2. section 6.3 recaps the need to develop methods to incorporate nonstationarity into planning and technical analyses. section 6.4 describes other opportunities to advance planning, including possible changes to current methods for evaluating projects. finally, section 6.\\x04 presents some advantages to increased collaboration and some examples of such ongoing activities.
What is climate change?
a global phenomenon
Who are often the most vulnerable?
children and youth - especially girls - and elderly women
Who experiences the greatest impacts of climate change?
those who are already the most vulnerable and marginalised
climate change is a global phenomenon, with impacts that are already being experienced on a human level. it is recognised that it is those who are already the most vulnerable and marginalised who experience the greatest impacts (see ipcc 2007), and are in the greatest need of adaptation strategies in the face of shifts in weather patterns and resulting environmental phenomena. at the same time, it is the vulnerable and marginalised who have the least capacity or opportunity to prepare for the impacts of a changing climate or to participate in negotiations on mitigation. as women constitute the largest percentage of the world's poorest people, they are most affected by these changes. children and youth - especially girls - and elderly women, are often the most vulnerable. even where there is a lack of hard evidence, it is commonly recognised that climate change exacerbates existing inequalities in the key dimensions that are not only the building blocks of livelihoods, but are also crucial for coping with change, including: wealth; access to and understanding of technologies; education; access to information; and access to resources (masika 2002). it follows that donors' responses to climate change should be gender-sensitive. for example, dfid needs to apply the principles of its new gender equality action plan and the uk government's commitments to international human rights conventions such as the united nations convention on the elimination of all forms of discrimination against women (cedaw), to its response on climate change. but what does this mean in practice?
Is the selection of the cities a random process?
the selection of cities is therefore not random at all, but regionally biased towards western europe
How many indicators are considered in the categorization process?
the categorization of cities is based on hierarchical clustering with the squared euclidean distances for all 25 indicators (koop and van leeuwen 2015b and provided in table 3
although our city blueprint research is focussed on the performance of iwrm in european cities, we have tried to include also other geographical regions. the selection of cities is therefore not random at all, but regionally biased towards western europe. with these limitations in mind, the challenges on water, waste and climate change can be discussed globally by clustering cities into distinct categories of sustainability and by providing additional data and information for various global regions. the categorization of cities is based on hierarchical clustering with the squared euclidean distances for all 25 indicators (koop and van leeuwen 2015b and provided in table 3
What is human managed ecosystems?
species distribution modeling has emerged as a vital tool for predicting, on a spatially explicit basis, the likely impacts of climate change on natural and human managed ecosystems
Explain about biogeographic model goal?
the goal of biogeographic modeling is to forecast species distributions in new or altered habitats, including invasions into new regions and responses to expected environmental alterations associated with climate change. predictions of impacts of climate change on the geographic distributions of organisms are being made by two somewhat divergent groups of investigators, biogeographic modelers, and physiological ecologists, using either correlative or mechanistic approaches to predict future distributions (jeschke and strayer 2008; kearney and porter 2009
How to approach the model in novel conditions?
one critical assumption of both approaches is that models developed at one location can be applied to novel conditions, either in space or in time; this is the concept of model stationarity in which the mean and variance of the past can be used to predict future conditions and extremes or in terms of biogeography, niche conservatism, or the conservation of the fundamental niche (wiens and graham 2005
species distribution modeling has emerged as a vital tool for predicting, on a spatially explicit basis, the likely impacts of climate change on natural and human managed ecosystems. the goal of biogeographic modeling is to forecast species distributions in new or altered habitats, including invasions into new regions and responses to expected environmental alterations associated with climate change. predictions of impacts of climate change on the geographic distributions of organisms are being made by two somewhat divergent groups of investigators, biogeographic modelers, and physiological ecologists, using either correlative or mechanistic approaches to predict future distributions (jeschke and strayer 2008; kearney and porter 2009). one critical assumption of both approaches is that models developed at one location can be applied to novel conditions, either in space or in time; this is the concept of model stationarity in which the mean and variance of the past can be used to predict future conditions and extremes or in terms of biogeography, niche conservatism, or the conservation of the fundamental niche (wiens and graham 2005). these concepts explicitly refer to the fundamental or preinteractive
What would facilitate the link to operational programmes?
increased research effort on identifying 'no regrets' measures to increase climate resilience would facilitate the link to operational programmes
What has developed from awareness raising and academic research?
the field of climate change and health has developed from awareness raising and academic research
In which field the WHO has implemented largescale pilot projects to climate change in 17 countries, across all of its regions since 2008?
since 2008, the who has implemented largescale pilot projects on health adaptation to climate change in 17 countries, across all of its regions
increased research effort on identifying 'no regrets' measures to increase climate resilience would facilitate the link to operational programmes. in recent years, the field of climate change and health has developed from awareness raising and academic research, to a much more direct connection with core health policy and implementation programmes. for example, since 2008, the who has implemented largescale pilot projects on health adaptation to climate change in 17 countries, across all of its regions despite this rapid growth, the scale of this investment is only a fraction of the estimated costs of damage to health, or of investment in adaptation in non-health sectors. there is therefore widespread acceptance of the need for more resources to be devoted to this area. as investments are hopefully scaled up, it will become increasingly important to have a clear and structured framework for directing and monitoring their effectiveness. one of the most important considerations is to ensure that new resources strengthen, rather than distract from or compete with, existing health structures and priorities. in order to do this, the who is building on the initial work of the african workplan for health adaptation to climate change, to develop an operational framework that identifies the key health systems components that need to be strengthened to increase resilience
What option leads to a slightly more equal distribution of the net burden across income groups?
nontaxable dividend option tends to lead to a slightly more equal distribution of the net burden across income groups
When climate policy is more expensive than it needs to be what happens?
if climate policy is more expensive than it otherwise needs to be, then this inevitably affects households in all income groups
in comparison with the first scenario, the nontaxable dividend option tends to lead to a slightly more equal distribution of the net burden across income groups. the lower-income households do not experience quite as large a gain, and the higher-income households do not incur quite as large a loss. this happens because of the differences in the marginal tax rates across income groups. when the dividend is taxed, the relative gain to the lower deciles is greater because of their lower marginal tax rates. in this scenario, where the dividends are untaxed, these tax rate differences do not play a role. the difference shows up in the suits index for the rebate, which at -0.33 is less negative than in our first policy scenario. both capanddividend options are progressive, but the taxable dividend option is more progressive. regional results are quite similar to the first scenario - although there is some variation across regions, it is not great for average households. however, some more substantial regional differences show up for low income households. 4.2 reducing preexisting taxes a prominent suggestion from the public finance literature is to direct revenues collected under federal climate policy to reduce preexisting taxes that distort behavior away from economic efficiency (bovenberg and de mooij 1994; bovenberg and goulder 1996; goulder et al. 1999; parry et al. 1999). studies show that such an option improves the overall efficiency of the policy because it removes the distortions those preexisting taxes cause in factor markets. in fact, failure to reduce those taxes can impose a hidden cost of climate policy.12 if climate policy is more expensive than it otherwise needs to be, then this inevitably affects households in all income groups. therefore, designing policy to be as cost-effective as possible can be thought of as an important component of addressing the impact on low-income households. measuring the effect of interactions with other regulations and taxes and the benefits of revenue recycling requires a general equilibrium framework or linked partial equilibrium models that include labor or capital supply decisions. dinan and rogers (2002) include a reduced-form
Describe the annual mean surface temperatures simulated by the CSM.
the annual mean surface temperatures simulated by the csm for the cretaceous (figure 2a) are significantly warmer than at present, with the most pronounced warming over the highlatitude land areas
Whwn occur the  Isolated areas of subfreezing surface temperatures?
occur over the high-latitude interiors of the cretaceous continents
the annual mean surface temperatures simulated by the csm for the cretaceous (figure 2a) are significantly warmer than at present, with the most pronounced warming over the highlatitude land areas. isolated areas of subfreezing surface temperatures occur over the high-latitude interiors of the cretaceous continents. the coldest simulated winter temperatures occur over northeast eurasia, where december-february surface temperatures reach  20  c. summer temperatures in the interiors of the cretaceous high-latitude continents warm sufficiently to support trees in these regions. only isolated strips along the arctic ocean remain cold enough throughout the year to suggest tundra vegetation. the amplitudes of the simulated seasonal cycles of middleand high-latitude continental areas for the cretaceous are reduced by 50% compared to the present. the simulated annual mean precipitation for the cretaceous (figure 2b) shows a tropical pattern and amounts similar to the present, with maxima of precipitation straddling the equator associated with the seasonal migration of the intertropical convergence zone. precipitation is enhanced at middle and high latitudes along the wintertime storm tracks as a result of warmer temperatures and thus greater atmospheric moisture capacity.
Name four key issues that need to be addressed regarding the economic models of climate chage.
four key issues--along with several others--remain inadequately addressed by economic models of climate change, namely: (1) uncertainty, (2) aggregation, heterogeneity and distributional implications (3) technological change, and most of all, (4) realistic damage functions for the economic impact of the physical consequences of climate change
What is the general consensus of this paper regarding the climate energy-economic models?
this paper assesses the main shortcomings of two generations of climateenergy-economic models and proposes that a new wave of models need to be developed to tackle these four challenges
Name two potential approaches that this paper examines.
this paper then examines two potential candidate approaches-- dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (dsge) models and agent-based models (abm
modellingtheeconomicsofclimatechangeisdaunting.manyexistingmethodologies from social and physical sciences need to be deployed, and new modelling techniques and ideas still need to be developed. existing bread-and-butter microand macroeconomic tools, such as the expected utility framework, market equilibrium concepts and representative agent assumptions, are far from adequate. four key issues--along with several others--remain inadequately addressed by economic models of climate change, namely: (1) uncertainty, (2) aggregation, heterogeneity and distributional implications (3) technological change, and most of all, (4) realistic damage functions for the economic impact of the physical consequences of climate change. this paper assesses the main shortcomings of two generations of climateenergy-economic models and proposes that a new wave of models need to be developed to tackle these four challenges. this paper then examines two potential candidate approaches-- dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (dsge) models and agent-based models (abm). the successful use of agent-based models in other areas, such as in modelling the financial
This guidebook contains what?
this guidebook contains science-based principles, processes, and tools necessary to assist with developing adaptation options for national forest lands
The adaption process is based on what?
the adaptation process is based on partnerships between local resource managers and scientists who work collaboratively to understand potential climate change effects, identify important resource issues, and develop management options that can capitalize on new opportunities and reduce deleterious effects
What are the recommended steps?
regardless of specific processes and tools, the following steps are recommended: (1) become aware of basic climate change science and integrate that understand ing with knowledge of local resource conditions and issues (review), (2) evaluate sensitivity of specific natural resources to climate change (rank), (3) develop and implement strategic and tactical options for adapting resources to climate change (resolve), and (4) monitor the effectiveness of adaptation options (observe) and adjust management as needed
peterson, david l.; millar, connie i.; joyce, linda a.; furniss, michael j.; halofsky, jessica e.; neilson, ronald p.; morelli, toni lyn. 2011. respond ing to climate change in national forests: a guidebook for developing adaptation options. gen. tech. rep. pnw-gtr-855. portland, or: u.s. department of agriculture, forest service, pacific northwest research station. 109 p. this guidebook contains science-based principles, processes, and tools necessary to assist with developing adaptation options for national forest lands. the adaptation process is based on partnerships between local resource managers and scientists who work collaboratively to understand potential climate change effects, identify important resource issues, and develop management options that can capitalize on new opportunities and reduce deleterious effects. because management objec tives and sensitivity of resources to climate change differ among national forests, appropriate processes and tools for developing adaptation options may also differ. regardless of specific processes and tools, the following steps are recommended: (1) become aware of basic climate change science and integrate that understand ing with knowledge of local resource conditions and issues (review), (2) evaluate sensitivity of specific natural resources to climate change (rank), (3) develop and implement strategic and tactical options for adapting resources to climate change (resolve), and (4) monitor the effectiveness of adaptation options (observe) and adjust management as needed. results of recent case studies on adaptation in national forests and national parks can facilitate integration of climate change in resource management and planning and make the adaptation process more efficient. adaptation to climate change will be successful only if it can be fully implemented in established planning processes and other operational aspects of national forest management. keywords: adaptation, climate change, national forests, national parks, science-management partnership, vulnerability assessment.
Who summarized the averaging across the standardized distributions?
averaging across the standardized distributions summarized by the ipcc
What do the averaging across the standardized distributions summarized by the IPCC suggest?
averaging across the standardized distributions summarized by the ipcc suggests that the 95th percentile is about 7o c, i.e., there is roughly a 5 percent probability that the true climate sensitivity is above 7o c
What do Roe and Baker explain?
but as roe and baker explain, the initial temperature increase d t0 "induces changes in the underlying processes which modify the effective forcing, which, in turn, modifies
averaging across the standardized distributions summarized by the ipcc suggests that the 95th percentile is about 7o c, i.e., there is roughly a 5 percent probability that the true climate sensitivity is above 7o c. but this implies more knowledge than we probably have. this is easiest to see in the relatively simple climate model developed by roe and baker (2007). using their notation, let l0 be climate sensitivity in the absence of any feedback effects, i.e., absent feedback effects, a doubling of the atmospheric co2e concentration would lead to an increase in radiative forcing that would in turn cause a temperature increase of d t0= l0 o c. but as roe and baker explain, the initial temperature increase d t0 "induces changes in the underlying processes which modify the effective forcing, which, in turn, modifies
How was the questionnaire structured ?
the questionnaire was structured in such a way that for each category of questions, the respondents were asked to assess the current situation., e.g. main income source, number of animals, field size, etc., then to describe the main changes, if any, over the past 20 years (1987-2007), and finally to assess the main causes of these changes, if any
Toward the end of the questionnaire, what were the respondents asked in order to triangulate with responses in the first part of the questionnaire?
toward the end of the questionnaire and to triangulate with responses in the first part of the questionnaire, the respondents were asked to directly assess positive and negative climate impacts on crop production and livestock production and, if negative, their adaptive actions to respond to these impacts
For all data, what was used to test the significance of differences between rainfall zones?
for all data, differences between rainfall zones were tested for significance using chi-square tests
fig. 1 location of field sites in west africa with isohyets. source of isohyets: nasa gridded rainfall data in the global gis database (globalgisdatadatabasemapbasec_atmos). acquired in 2005. the household questionnaire was developed jointly by all authors and was implemented either by the authors or by trained research assistants in each community during the period of november 2007 to june 2008. the questionnaire was structured in such a way that for each category of questions, the respondents were asked to assess the current situation., e.g. main income source, number of animals, field size, etc., then to describe the main changes, if any, over the past 20 years (1987-2007), and finally to assess the main causes of these changes, if any. no indication of the focus on climate factors was presented for respondents at this stage to avoid biases in the answers. toward the end of the questionnaire and to triangulate with responses in the first part of the questionnaire, the respondents were asked to directly assess positive and negative climate impacts on crop production and livestock production and, if negative, their adaptive actions to respond to these impacts. this was done as a free listing and responses were not ranked because there was rarely more than one to two adaptation measures mentioned. for all data, differences between rainfall zones were tested for significance using chi-square tests. most responses in the questionnaire are based on households' perceptions, which are used as a bestbet proxy for understanding causal relationships for changes. perceptions are of course subjective and can be influenced by local or broader narratives and may also reflect the mind-set of individual farmers,
What are considered as additional souces?
we considered using newspaper reports and statistics from the local police as additional sources
What are considered as unreliable sources?
the former are, however, infrequent and unreliable, and the latter are difficult to access and would only include cases that involved use of violence
what cases are disregarded entirely?
we disregard all cases relating to divorce, matrimonial quarrel, credit reimbursement, and succession, except if the succession concerns ownership of rural land
hence, little information is lost by focusing only on cases in the second tier of the judicial system. we considered using newspaper reports and statistics from the local police as additional sources. the former are, however, infrequent and unreliable, and the latter are difficult to access and would only include cases that involved use of violence. the archives in se'vare' have not been digitalized; instead, court decisions are available as printed documents, catalogued by year and type (criminal or civil matters). as the appeal court in se'vare' was established in 1992, we only report data on disputes starting from this year. land and natural resource conflicts are normally recorded under civil matters, although violent land conflicts may be considered criminal matters. we disregard all cases relating to divorce, matrimonial quarrel, credit reimbursement, and succession, except if the succession concerns ownership of rural land. the remaining files were classified according to the main issue of contest (agricultural lands, pastures, fisheries, and customary leadership) and actor constellation (farmer/ farmer, farmer/herder, etc.). in all, we have data on 820 distinct land/resource disputes in the region between 1992 and 2009. before assessing the statistics, a note on data quality is warranted. taking a dispute to court is usually considered a last resort (except if an involved party has enough power and money to be confident of victory). obviously, most land (and other civil) disputes never appear in court - many are solved through various conflict resolution mechanisms, such as intervention of customary authorities (jowros, village leaders, community meetings) or local administrative authorities. in addition, some enduring conflicts are never taken to court because of lack of funds. court cases are expensive, largely because of the bribes the parties need to pay to the judge and his entourage (benjaminsen ba, 2009). this suggests two possible selection biases. first, the data might be biased in that disputes involving very poor parties will be underrepresented. second, there is a potential for bias relating to conflict severity, where high-intensity disputes, that is, violent and fatal events, are more likely to appear in court. according to our sources, violent cases represent about 10% of all cases in the court of appeal in se'vare'.5
Who runs the Make Our Planet Great Again campaign?
french president emmanuel macron
Why did he invite researchers to France?
to help accelerate action and deliver on the paris agreement
What happened at the Arctic Basecamp at Davos in January?
brought scientists into high-level discussions on global risk at the world economic forum's annual meeting
those in power must also stand up for science. french president emmanuel macron's make our planet great again campaign is a compelling example. he has <s147>spoken out to a global audience in support of <s104>climate scientists, and invited researchers to <s121>move to france to help accelerate action and deliver on the paris agreement. to encourage others to speak, scientists should forge connections with leaders from policy, business and civil society. the arctic basecamp at davos in january, for instance, brought scientists into high-level discussions on global risk at the world economic forum's annual meeting in switzerland. second, existing solutions must be scaled
What is an RCM?
regional climate model
What does the Baltic Sea catchment represent?
maritime climate dominated by advection from the ocean and from the baltic sea
What causes the model deficit?
the internal model parametrizations
this study presents a model intercomparison of four regional climate models (rcms) and one variable resolution atmospheric general circulation model (agcm) applied over europe with special focus on the hydrological cycle and the surface energy budget. the models simulated the 15 years from 1979 to 1993 by using quasi-observed boundary conditions derived from ecmwf re-analyses (era). the model intercomparison focuses on two large atchments representing two different climate conditions covering two areas of major research interest within europe. the first is the danube catchment which represents a continental climate dominated by advection from the surrounding land areas. it is used to analyse the common model error of a too dry and too warm simulation of the summertime climate of southeastern europe. this summer warming and drying problem is seen in many rcms, and to a less extent in gcms. the second area is the baltic sea catchment which represents maritime climate dominated by advection from the ocean and from the baltic sea. this catchment is a research area of many studies within europe and also covered by the baltex program. the observed data used are monthly mean surface air temperature, precipitation and river discharge. for all models, these are used to estimate mean monthly biases of all components of the hydrological cycle over land. in addition, the mean monthly deviations of the surface energy fluxes from era data are computed. atmospheric moisture fluxes from era are compared with those of one model to provide an independent estimate of the convergence bias derived from the observed data. these help to add weight to some of the inferred estimates and explain some of the discrepancies between them. an evaluation of these biases and deviations suggests possible sources of error in each of the models. for the danube catchment, systematic errors in the dynamics cause the prominent summer drying problem for three of the rcms, while for the fourth rcm this is related to deficiencies in the land surface parametrization. the agcm does not show this drying problem. for the baltic sea catchment, all models similarily overestimate the precipitation throughout the year except during the summer. this model deficit is probably caused by the internal model parametrizations, such as the large-scale condensation and the convection schemes.
Do adults work more sedentary jobs now?
over the last few decades, more adults have transitioned to sedentary jobs
What do people eat nowadays?
the current food environment promotes over-consumption of calorie-dense, nutrientpoor foods
Are children more or less active than before?
children are also far less active than they were thirty years ago
finally, while the current food environment promotes over-consumption of calorie-dense, nutrientpoor foods, the physical activity environment creates sedentary behavior in the majority of the population. over the last few decades, more adults have transitioned to sedentary jobs as machines have been created to replace physical labor, and technology has allowed us to process information without ever leaving our chairs.29 children are also far less active than they were thirty years ago. most children spend less time walking to school and playing outside; instead they spend more time working and communicating on the computer, playing video games, and watching television.30 these behavior changes are considered to be the result of a cultural, technological shift, and living in communities that require travel by car instead of by foot or other forms of transportation.31
Why would the hotspot projects  be required at the country level?
the hotspot projects would also provide a sense of the type of climate risk analyses that would be required at the country level to advise project identification and preparation as well as national development planning (data requirements for the climate risk management knowledge base
What types of projects would be analyzed in detail by a full or partial risk assessment and be fed into the project design?
the selected high-risk projects would be analyzed in detail by a full or partial risk assessments, which would feed into the project design
What is the first step the Bank could take to get experience in climate risk management?
to gain experience in climate risk management in the project cycle, the first step the bank could take is to select some "climate risk hotspots
to gain experience in climate risk management in the project cycle, the first step the bank could take is to select some "climate risk hotspots": good opportunities for climate risk management in its current pipeline of projects in preparation; cases in which climate risk management might clearly yield high benefits in terms of project quality, efficiency and sustainability. at the same time, these projects would become the pilots that would contribute to the process of building experience and capacity in climate risk management. some simple criteria could be applied to identify such projects, by looking for critical sites or localities that are highly vulnerable to climate change: 1. project sector substantially risk-affected, based on a categorization such as: * climate dependent (e.g., agriculture, water) (nb include potential adaptation benefits) * climate sensitive (e.g., infrastructure, health) * climate connected (e.g., insurance) * climate neutral or independent (e.g., good governance, human rights, but note that government stability can be affected by climate-related disasters); 2. projects located in regions or places of known high risk from climate variability and extremes; 3. project related to economic activities (livelihoods) that are close to the limits of tolerance or coping capacity; 4. long lifetime of project (economic and physical life); 5. projects which increase vulnerability. criteria like these could be applied to projects in the pipeline, but also to projects in the current portfolio. the initial selection could be global, or focus on particular countries or regions, and would be done in partnership between the global climate change team (and possibly the dmf), and the region/country team involved. the selected high-risk projects would be analyzed in detail by a full or partial risk assessments, which would feed into the project design. these pilots would help build experience both in terms of risk assessment methodology and in terms of integrating assessments outcomes into operational work. the hotspot projects would also provide a sense of the type of climate risk analyses that would be required at the country level to advise project identification and preparation as well as national development planning (data requirements for the climate risk management knowledge base).
What was examined in this study?
in this study, we examine the time evolution of the relative contribution of sulfate aerosols and greenhouse gases to anthropogenic climate change
What climate model was used?
we use the new ipsl-cm4 coupled climate model for which the first indirect effect of sulfate aerosols has been calibrated using polder satellite data
The first indirect effect of sulfate aerosols has been calibrated by what?
we use the new ipsl-cm4 coupled climate model for which the first indirect effect of sulfate aerosols has been calibrated using polder satellite data
in this study, we examine the time evolution of the relative contribution of sulfate aerosols and greenhouse gases to anthropogenic climate change. we use the new ipsl-cm4 coupled climate model for which the first indirect effect of sulfate aerosols has been calibrated using polder satellite data. for the recent historical period the sulfate aerosols play a key role on the temperature increase with a cooling effect of 0.5 k, to be compared to the 1.4 k warming due to greenhouse gas increase. in contrast, the projected temperature change for the 21st century is remarkably independent of the effects of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols for the sres-a2 scenario. those results are interpreted comparing the different radiative forcings, and can be extended to other scenarios. we also highlight that the first indirect effect of aerosol strongly depends on the land surface model by changing the cloud cover. citation: dufresne, j.-l., j. quaas, o. boucher, s. denvil, and l. fairhead (2005), contrasts in the effects on climate of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols between the 20th and the 21st century, geophys. res. lett. 32 l21703, doi:10.1029/ 2005gl023619.
What will the simplest of changes associated with global warming (a modest increase in near-surface air temperature) be responsible for?
alterations of the hydrological cycle in snowmelt-dominated regions via seasonal shifts in stream-flow
What is one of the probable causes of the observed early snowmelt and, more importantly, deglaciation that is now occurring in most mountainous regions of the world?
the physical principles found to apply in snowmelt-dominated regions (for example, the western usa
Without adequate water storage capacity, what will the simplest of changes associated with global warming lead to?
regional water shortages
in this review, we suggest that the simplest of changes associated with global warming (a modest increase in near-surface air temperature) will be responsible for alterations of the hydrological cycle in snowmelt-dominated regions via seasonal shifts in stream-flow. without adequate water storage capacity, these changes will lead to regional water shortages. the model-predicted changes are already being seen in the observed data. if maintained at current levels, these changes will lead to a serious reduction in dry-season water availability in many regions of the earth within the next few decades. the physical principles found to apply in snowmelt-dominated regions (for example, the western usa) are one of the probable causes of the observed early snowmelt and, more importantly, deglaciation that is now occurring in most mountainous regions of the world. the serious situations developing in the hkh region and south america have been briefly presented. it is clear that both regions, as well as others not mentioned, are headed for a watersupply crisis. better water management techniques can help, but cannot solve the problem without significant changes to agriculture, industry and lifestyle. detailed studies of the future impact of global warming on water resources in these regions are long overdue.
Describe the dynamics of radial augmentation in organisms?
long-term data on radial increment dynamics in mediterranean species may identify which climatic variables are the main constraints for radial growth and at which temporal scales they act. to this end, we examined stem radial fluctuations in quercus ilex l., the dominant evergreen oak species in the western mediterranean basin, over a period of 11 years (1994-2004) at a coastal site in north-eastern spain. we used manual band dendrometers to record girth changes in trees on northand south-facing slopes
Who was the inventor of Quercus Ilex?
we used manual band dendrometers to record girth changes in trees on northand south-facing slopes. annual increments measured by dendrometers showed good agreement with annual tree-ring width. north-facing trees showed a lower long-term cumulative radial increment than south-facing trees. the seasonal radial increment pattern of q. ilex was bimodal, being characterized by a greater increase in may and a lesser, more variable increase peak in septemb
long-term data on radial increment dynamics in mediterranean species may identify which climatic variables are the main constraints for radial growth and at which temporal scales they act. to this end, we examined stem radial fluctuations in quercus ilex l., the dominant evergreen oak species in the western mediterranean basin, over a period of 11 years (1994-2004) at a coastal site in north-eastern spain. we used manual band dendrometers to record girth changes in trees on northand south-facing slopes. annual increments measured by dendrometers showed good agreement with annual tree-ring width. north-facing trees showed a lower long-term cumulative radial increment than south-facing trees. the seasonal radial increment pattern of q. ilex was bimodal, being characterized by a greater increase in may and a lesser, more variable increase peak in september. both phases corresponded to warm and moist climatic conditions, whereas radial increase of stems stopped in winter and occasionally in summer. considering the whole year, mean maximum air temperature was the main factor positively affecting radial increment of q. ilex from short(5 days) tolong (30 days) time scales, whereas the accumulated precipitation exerted a similar effect at longer (30 days) scales, but only on south-facing trees. in summer, all trees were positively correlated with precipitation at long-time scales (30 days); however, only stem increment of southfacing trees showed a significant relation to the temperature at short-time scales (10 days). we confirmed the dominant role of temperature as the major constraint on radial increment at short time scales, despite most previous studies were mostly biased towards precipitation effects at monthly scales. keywords band dendrometer  drought  mediterranean climate  bimodal growth  holm oak dendroclimatology aims to establish long-term relationships between radial growth and climatic variables by examining correlations with monthly, seasonal and annual resolution (fritts 1976 ). these year-to-year comparisons between monthly climatic variables and tree-ring width do not consider the radial increment dynamics at intra-annual scale. furthermore, such analyses cannot capture delayed radial-growth responses to climate (camarero et al. 1998 ). therefore, data on radial increment dynamics is required to understand radial growth responses in relation to climatic variability at shorter time scales which may not be detected by coarser assessments based on response functions. most of the short-term data on stem radial increment dynamics derive from dendrometers (drew and downes 2009 ). dendrometers provide non-destructive measurements of radial fluctuations in relation to climate, once
What are human values?
the challenge for climate change communicators seeking to make the most effective use of research on human values is to identify ways of bridging between the diverse values that any given group of individuals holds and the values that are congruent with a more sustainable society
What is the e.g of human values?
values around security or freedom with self-transcending values like concern for the welfare of others is one possible way of resolving the tension between the social marketing and 'common cause' approaches to campaigning, and making best use of the available academic evidence
Which promotes polarized views through 'pro-integration'?
87,105,106they may also promote polarized views through 'biased assimilation' of the message content by opposing attitudinal groups
the challenge for climate change communicators seeking to make the most effective use of research on human values is to identify ways of bridging between the diverse values that any given group of individuals holds and the values that are congruent with a more sustainable society. coupling, for example, values around security or freedom with self-transcending values like concern for the welfare of others is one possible way of resolving the tension between the social marketing and 'common cause' approaches to campaigning, and making best use of the available academic evidence.103,104in addition, it is now well established that communication strategies based on 'one way' message-oriented communication tend to be ineffective at fostering significant and sustained behavioral engagement87,105,106they may also promote polarized views through 'biased assimilation' of the message content by opposing attitudinal groups.107
What is the main reason for the analysi?
only consumption reactions
What is the equation you obtain dividing the remaining terms by Q, and knowing that t V Q?
the following equation is obtained: 0 c0 - c - rc
When the the effluent concentration can be different?
the effluent concentration is only different for reactions of first order (or higher
inthesteadystatethereisnomassaccumulationinthereactor,thatis,dc/dt 0. in this analysis there is no production of constituents, only consumption reactions. therefore, rp 0. dividing the remaining terms by q, and knowing that t v q, the following equation is obtained: 0 c0 - c - rc. t (8.23) with the rearrangement of equation 8.23, concentration profiles along the complete-mix reactor and the effluent concentration under steady-state conditions can be calculated (figure 8.9). if the influent (input) concentration is constant, the effluent (output) concentration also remains constant with time. the effluent concentration depends on the type and reaction rate of the constituent. however, the concentration profile along the reactor depicts a constant concentration, which is in agreement with the assumption that in a complete-mix reactor the concentrations are the same at any point in the tank. table 8.4 summarises the main equations. in comparison with the plug-flow reactor, the effluent concentration is only different for reactions of first order (or higher). for such reaction orders, the completemix reactor is less efficient than the plug-flow reactor. the following generalisations can be made for an ideal complete-mix reactor under steady-state conditions:
Who describe a project as defined activities?
bell and morse 6 describe a project as 'defined activities
What is the aim for thems?
they go on to outline how 'projects are popular with those respon sible for spending money' and 'embrace a targeted set of activities with a clear aim (and hence cost), and hence accountability [that] can be maximized
bell and morse 6 describe a project as 'defined activities carried out by defined people with a defined end point in mind at a defined cost and over a defined period of time' (p. 97). they go on to outline how 'projects are popular with those respon sible for spending money' and 'embrace a targeted set of activities with a clear aim (and hence cost), and hence accountability [that] can be maximized.' this allows, they argue, limited time-horizons for spending the budget and the achievement of targets allow a long-term commitment to be circumvented or even negated alto gether. this 'fits neatly into the short-term time-frames that politicians inhabit' they claim (p. 98).
What determines continued funding of the project?
indication that continued funding for this project depends on results favorable to the sponsor
Has there been constraints on talking about the research project?
freedom in communicating about the research i have felt constraints on discussing my research on this project with others
Have the students had any constraints in being allowed to share research information?
there have been no constraints on the free exchange of ideas about this project among students in this department
the sponsor insists on immediate results or the project won't get support. i have been asked to write up results or otherwise interpret them in ways i do not agree with. indication that continued funding for this project depends on results favorable to the sponsor. i have been asked to interpret results in the way favorable to the sponsor of the research. freedom in communicating about the research i have felt constraints on discussing my research on this project with others. there have been no constraints on the free exchange of ideas about this project among students in this department. there have been no constraints on the free exchange of ideas about project -- students in different departments. there have been no constraints on the free exchange of ideas about project among faculty in this department. there have been no constraints on the free exchange of ideas about project -- faculty in different departments. i have been able to consult freely with anyone i choose on my research. references
What are the two classes we can divide climate change into?
we may divide action on climate change into two classes: adaptation actions and mitigation actions
What is the evidence of human-induced climate change?
the evidence base is made up of theoretical understanding of greenhouse gases and their radiative effects in the atmosphere, high-quality observations of the climate system over time and physically based modelling (the subject of this issue), which has been used to interpret those observations
What group of people are taking action against climate change?
there is an emerging political will to take action
the existence of human-induced climate change is now established. the evidence base is made up of theoretical understanding of greenhouse gases and their radiative effects in the atmosphere, high-quality observations of the climate system over time and physically based modelling (the subject of this issue), which has been used to interpret those observations. what next then for climate change science? there is an emerging political will to take action. what is the role for the science of climate prediction1in enabling action? we may divide action on climate change into two classes: adaptation actions and mitigation actions. in order for society to adapt to climate change which is happening and to which we are already committed, detailed predictions of future climate variability and change (whether they be human-induced or natural in origin) are needed. in many cases, information is required for local areas--how high should we build new sea defences, what should be the capacity of a new reservoir? adaptation planning horizons are generally (although not exclusively) of the order of years to decades and may involve dependencies on other non-climate factors. in contrast, mitigation actions are often considered to involve long time-scale questions. at what level must co2 concentrations be stabilized to avoid dangerous climate change, possibly involving
what is full form of TACCIMO
template for assessing climate change impacts and management options
TACCIMO is which type of tool
taccimo) is a web-based tool connecting planning and science through a report generation service
template for assessing climate change impacts and management options (taccimo) is a web-based tool connecting planning and science through a report generation service. the taccimo inputs are (1) projected climate change, (2) effects and management options derived from a literature review, and (3) forest service land and resource management plans. the web-based interface (4) uses a relational database environment to synthesize inputs based on user selections to gen erate a report. forest service planners will be able to readily construct a current situation report (8) from the planning template report (6), while state and private users will focus mainly on forecasts and effects (5). feedback tracking will ensure completeness of information and usefulness of functionalities (7).
What do the bottom panels of Fig. 7 show?
the bottom panels of fig. 7 show the interannual correlation between the number of ozone pollution days and the number of mid-latitude cyclones diagnosed from the reanalyses and from the noaa weather maps
What can be used as an interannual predictor of air quality?
the frequency of mid-latitude cyclones can be used as an interannual predictor of air quality
What is an important implication, from a climate change perspective ?
an important implication, from a climate change perspective, is that long-term trends in cyclone frequency may be expected to drive corresponding trends in air quality
the bottom panels of fig. 7 show the interannual correlation between the number of ozone pollution days and the number of mid-latitude cyclones diagnosed from the reanalyses and from the noaa weather maps. there is widespread negative correlation, stronger in the midwest and northeast than in the southeast, consistent with the correlation of mid-latitude cyclones and stagnation days seen in the reanalyses. we thus see that there is a clear cause-to-effect link, at least in the midwest and northeast, between mid-latitudes cyclones, stagnation days, and ozone pollution days. the frequency of mid-latitude cyclones can be used as an interannual predictor of air quality. an important implication, from a climate change perspective, is that long-term trends in cyclone frequency may be expected to drive corresponding trends in air quality.
What did the African health and environment ministers commit to work for in the 2008 and 2010 conferences?
they consequently committed to work across sectors to manage environmental and health risks related to climate variability and change
What the WHO is doing to help in the implementation of commitments made by governments?
in order to support implementation of the commitments made by governments, the who is supporting countries to include health as a priority within their multisectoral national adaptation plans for climate change under the un framework convention on climate change
Explain the regional workplan endorsed by the African Health and Environment Ministers?
the african health and environment ministers endorsed a regional workplan to undertake: (i) baseline risk and capacity assessments, (ii) capacity building, (iii) integrated environment and health surveillance, (iv) awareness raising and social mobilization, (v) management of environmental health risks, (vi) scale-up of existing public health interventions for vector-borne disease, (vii) strengthening and operationalizing the health components of disaster risk reduction plans, (viii) promotion of research on climate change impacts and adaptation, and (ix) strengthening partnerships and intersectoral collaboration
policy frameworks building on the world health assembly resolution on climate change and health in 2008 the african regional health and environment ministerial process has identified strengthening health protection from climate change as a top priority for the region. in their 2008 and 2010 conferences, health and environment ministers from across the region expressed their concern that africa is already experiencing the effects of climate change, which are likely to become more severe, exacerbate environmental risk factors to human health, and undermine africa's progress towards the millennium development goals [54,55]. they consequently committed to work across sectors to manage environmental and health risks related to climate variability and change. connecting climate and health programmes in order to support implementation of the commitments made by governments, the who is supporting countries to include health as a priority within their multisectoral national adaptation plans for climate change under the un framework convention on climate change the who regional office for africa has led the development of an essential public health package to enhance climate change resilience, closely tied to core public health programmes and functions, which should therefore form the basis of the health adaptation plan. the african health and environment ministers endorsed a regional workplan to undertake: (i) baseline risk and capacity assessments, (ii) capacity building, (iii) integrated environment and health surveillance, (iv) awareness raising and social mobilization, (v) management of environmental health risks, (vi) scale-up of existing public health interventions for vector-borne disease, (vii) strengthening and operationalizing the health components of disaster risk reduction plans, (viii) promotion of research on climate change impacts and adaptation, and (ix) strengthening partnerships and intersectoral collaboration the model has been slightly adapted for different purposes, and is now being used as a common structure for developing a portfolio of pilot projects on health adaptation to climate change, now totalling over us$30 million globally thematic approaches in order to move climate effectively into mainstream health programming, there is a need for further development and piloting on specific issues, whether on individual diseases, or components of the overall response. for example, there is widespread interest in making better use of climate and weather information to improve disease surveillance and response the world meteorological organization has led the development of a global framework on climate services (gfcs) to provide climate information and support that is more relevant and accessible to end-user communities, and has established a joint office with the who to support the connection to health policy-makers the organizations are now working with a range of external partners to pilot the implementation of the gfcs approach in tanzania and malawi, including application to malaria control, alongside nutritional and disaster risks applied research the identification of research as an important component within the wider policy and programmatic response to climate change enhances legitimacy and coherence. research agendas and initiatives that respond to these policy mandates are more likely to be taken up into operations by health and related sectors. for example, the special programme for research and training in tropical diseases (tdr), with support from the international development research centre (idrc), is implementing a us$6.8 million research initiative to understand the impact of climate change in subsaharan africa on people's vulnerability to vector-borne diseases, including malaria, schistosomiasis, african trypanosomiasis and rift valley fever. it does not attempt to isolate climate change as a single risk factor, instead placing it within the context of other social and environmental changes. it further focuses on those populations that are most vulnerable to risks arising from the combination of these factors, with an explicit aim to develop tools and strategies for adaptation to climate change. the initiative also connects directly to the political mandate from the health and environment ministerial process, and to implementation mechanisms for adaptation to climate change, such as the national adaptation plans.
what is Geothermal energy?
geothermal energy is a renewable energy source that has been utilised economically in many parts of the world for decades
why is the reason that development expected to continue in the future making heat pumps the major direct utilisation sector?
this development is expected to continue in the future making heat pumps the major direct utilisation sector. the main reason for this is that geothermal heat pumps can be installed economically all over the world
how can The renewable energy sources contribute significantly to the mitigation of climate change?
the renewable energy sources can contribute significantly to the mitigation of climate change and more so by working as partners rather than competing with each other. presently, the geothermal utilisation sector growing most rapidly is heat pump applications
conclusions geothermal energy is a renewable energy source that has been utilised economically in many parts of the world for decades. a great potential for an extensive increase in worldwide geothermal utilisation has been proven. this is a reliable energy source which serves both direct use applications and electricity generation. geothermal energy is independent of weather conditions and has an inherent storage capability which makes it especially suitable for supplying base load power in an economical way, and can thus serve as a partner with energy sources which are only available intermittently. the renewable energy sources can contribute significantly to the mitigation of climate change and more so by working as partners rather than competing with each other. presently, the geothermal utilisation sector growing most rapidly is heat pump applications. this development is expected to continue in the future making heat pumps the major direct utilisation sector. the main reason for this is that geothermal heat pumps can be installed economically all over the world. one of the strongest arguments for putting more emphasis on the development of geothermal resources worldwide is the limited environmental impact compared to most other energy sources. the co2 emission related to direct applications is negligible and very small in electricity generation compared to using fossil fuel. the geothermal exploitation techniques are being rapidly developed and the understanding of the reservoirs has improved considerably over the past years. combined heat and power plants are gaining increased popularity, improving the overall efficiency of the geothermal utilisation. also, low-temperature power generation with binary plants has opened up the possibilities of producing electricity in countries which do not have high-temperature fields. enhanced geothermal systems (egs) technologies, where heat is extracted from deeper parts of the reservoir than conventional systems, are under development. if egs can be proven economical at commercial scales, the development potential of geothermal energy will be limitless in many countries of the world. a project for drilling down to 5 km into a reservoir with supercritical hydrous fluids at 450600degc is under preparation (iddp). if this project succeeds, the power obtained from conventional geothermal fields can be increased by an order of magnitude. this would mean that much more energy could be obtained from presently producing high-temperature geothermal fields from a smaller number of wells. likely case scenarios are presented in the paper for electricity production and direct use of geothermal energy, as well as the mitigation potential of geothermal resources 2005-2050. these forecasts need to be elaborated on further during the preparation of the ipcc special report on renewable energy sources and climate change mitigation. acknowledgements the authors would like to thank einar gunnlaugsson, toshihiro uchida, keyan zheng, dorthe h. holm, halldor armannsson and gudni axelsson for valuable contributions to the paper.
Which plays  important role in economic development?
cities play a prominent role in our economic development as more than 80 of the gross world product (gwp) comes from cities
What are the effects of rapid urbanisation?
 only 600 urban areas with just 20 of the world population generate 60 of the gwp. rapid urbanization, climate change, inadequate maintenance of water and wastewater infrastructures and poor solid waste management may lead to flooding, water scarcity, water pollution, adverse health effects and rehabilitation costs that may overwhelm the resilience of cities
Explain five categories of sustainability?
1) cities lacking basic water services, (2) wasteful cities, (3) water-efficient cities, (4) resource-efficient and adaptive cities and (5) water-wise cities. many cities in western europe belong to categories 3 and 4. some cities in eastern europe and the few cities we have assessed in latin america, asia and africa can be categorized as cities lacking basic water services. lack of water infrastructures or obsolete infrastructures, solid waste management and climate adaptation are priorities
cities play a prominent role in our economic development as more than 80 of the gross world product (gwp) comes from cities. only 600 urban areas with just 20 of the world population generate 60 of the gwp. rapid urbanization, climate change, inadequate maintenance of water and wastewater infrastructures and poor solid waste management may lead to flooding, water scarcity, water pollution, adverse health effects and rehabilitation costs that may overwhelm the resilience of cities. these megatrends pose urgent challenges in cities as the cost of inaction is high. we present an overview about population growth, urbanization, water, waste, climate change, water governance and transitions. against this background, we discuss the categorization of cities based on our baseline assessments, i.e. our city blueprint research on 45 municipalities and regions predominantly in europe. with this bias towards europe in mind, the challenges can be discussed globally by clustering cities into distinct categories of sustainability and by providing additional data and information from global regions. we distinguish five categories of sustainability: (1) cities lacking basic water services, (2) wasteful cities, (3) water-efficient cities, (4) resource-efficient and adaptive cities and (5) water-wise cities. many cities in western europe belong to categories 3 and 4. some cities in eastern europe and the few cities we have assessed in latin america, asia and africa can be categorized as cities lacking basic water services. lack of water infrastructures or obsolete infrastructures, solid waste management and climate adaptation are priorities. it is concluded that cities require a long-term framing of their sectoral challenges into a proactive and coherent urban agenda to maximize the co-benefits of adaptation and to minimize the cost. furthermore, regional platforms of cities are needed to enhance city-to-city learning and to improve governance capacities necessary to accelerate effective and efficient transitions
What is  Aerosol optical thickness derived from?
aerosol optical thickness derived from aps--viirs combined inversion the aerosol optical thickness is derived from the viirs radiance data over distances of 50-100 km or greater
When is the Aerosol optical thickness considered valid?
the retrieval is considered valid when the spectral variation of the retrieved optical thickness using viirs data matches that of the aps optical thickness to better than 7% table 10 ). b.4. fraction of fine mode aerosol derived from aps--viirs combined inversion
What is the fine mode fraction of the total aerosol column optical thickness derived from?
the fine mode fraction of the total aerosol column optical thickness is derived from the viirs data over distances of 50-100 km from the aps ground track assuming the aps-retrieved aerosol spectral refractive indices, single-scattering albedo, and the size, width, and nonsphericity of the modes
b.3. aerosol optical thickness derived from aps--viirs combined inversion the aerosol optical thickness is derived from the viirs radiance data over distances of 50-100 km or greater from the aps ground track assuming the aps-retrieved aerosol spectral refractive indices, single-scattering albedo, and the size, width, and nonsphericity of the modes. the retrieval is considered valid when the spectral variation of the retrieved optical thickness using viirs data matches that of the aps optical thickness to better than 7% table 10 ). b.4. fraction of fine mode aerosol derived from aps--viirs combined inversion the fine mode fraction of the total aerosol column optical thickness is derived from the viirs data over distances of 50-100 km from the aps ground track assuming the aps-retrieved aerosol spectral refractive indices, single-scattering albedo, and the size, width, and nonsphericity of the modes. the
What has caused the increase of tropospheric greenhouse gases?
atmospheric abundances of tropospheric greenhouse gases (ghgs) and aerosols have increased since the preindustrial period due to anthropogenic activities
What is the process by which greenhouse gases warm the atmosphere?
while ghgs such as co2 and ch4 warm the atmosphere by trapping outgoing infrared radiation
How do anthropogenic aerosols affect the atmosphere?
anthropogenic aerosols, such as sulfates or black carbon (bc), cool or warm the atmosphere by scattering or absorbing solar radiation, respectively
atmospheric abundances of tropospheric greenhouse gases (ghgs) and aerosols have increased since the preindustrial period due to anthropogenic activities, and are estimated to make significant contributions to perturbing the radiative balance of the earth-atmosphere system over the next century houghton et al. 2001]. while ghgs such as co2 and ch4 warm the atmosphere by trapping outgoing infrared radiation, anthropogenic aerosols, such as sulfates or black carbon (bc), cool or warm the atmosphere by scattering or absorbing solar radiation, respectively. among radiatively active species of anthropogenic origin in the atmosphere, bc is increasingly recognized as an important contributer to global climate change jacobson 2002; hansen and nazarenko 2004; roberts and jones 2004; wang 2004]. anthropogenic bc is also considered an important factor in the perturbation of regional climate ramanathan et al. 2001a, 2001b; menon et al. 2002]. the first-order estimate of the climate impact of an atmospheric constituent is the direct radiative forcing it induces, which measures the net change in incoming and outgoing irradiance, usually calculated at top of the atmosphere (toa) or at the tropopause. the concept of radiative forcing as a measure of climate change is justified by the assumption that, for small perturbations, the equilibrium global and annual mean surface air temperature change d  ts]) is approximately linearly related to the global and annual mean radiative forcing d  f ]), i.e.,
What are the weather-related hazards mentioned in the paragraph above?
avalanches, floods, heat or cold waves, or storm surges
What providence suffered from the 1997 Red River flood?
the 1997 red river flood in manitoba
What supplies and systems were insufficient in the 1998 ice storm in eastern Ontario and Quebec?
with the 1998 ice storm in eastern ontario and quebec, where emergency power supplies, food distribution systems and emergency shelter provision were insufficient to deal with the crisis
as noted previously, health impacts related to an increased frequency of extreme climate events and climate-related natural disasters are a key area of concern. although many canadian municipalities have emergency management plans in place, their emergency management capacity tends to vary widely. communities prone to weather-related hazards, such as avalanches, floods, heat or cold waves, or storm surges, should generally be better prepared to cope with increased frequencies of such extreme events than communities that have rarely experienced them, although other factors are also important. this is exemplified by contrasting emergency response to the 1997 red river flood in manitoba, where disaster plans proved effective, with the 1998 ice storm in eastern ontario and quebec, where emergency power supplies, food distribution systems and emergency shelter provision were insufficient to deal with the crisis.(25)
What do classroom environments play an important role in?
classroom environments play an important role in students' motivation, engagement, and achievement at school
What can a theoretical integration of the two perspectives enhance?
a theoretical integration of the two perspectives can enhance understanding of the nature of positive classroom environments, advance research in this area, and also contribute to educational practice
What is involved in the current study?
in the current study we suggest that classroom goal structure and social climate research are complementary and can inform each other's weaknesses
classroom environments play an important role in students' motivation, engagement, and achievement at school. over the years, researchers have suggested various ways to conceptualize the characteristics of classroom environments that would be related to students' adaptive engagement. two influential frameworks have been achievement goal structures--students' perceptions of the motivational emphases in their classroom (ames, 1992b; kaplan maehr, 2007; meece, anderman, anderman, 2006) and the classroom social climate (see e.g., fraser, 2000; haertel, walberg, haertel, 1981). these two frameworks have made important contributions to understanding the nature of positive classroom environments; however, each has limitations. the goal structures perspective is strong theoretically but not in terms of relating students' perceptions of the environment to actual teacher practices and classroom life, particularly social interactions and relationships (see e.g., l. h. anderman, patrick, hruda, linnenbrink, 2002; blumenfeld, 1992). in turn, the classroom social climate perspective is strong in depicting actual classrooms and students' perceptions but is not well developed in its theoretical explanation of the underlying processes linking classroom environments and student outcomes (ames, 1987). in the current study we suggest that classroom goal structure and social climate research are complementary and can inform each other's weaknesses. more specifically, we propose that the classroom achievement goal structure is manifested primarily in the quality of social relationships with the teacher and among students and therefore that it is highly intertwined with, if not inseparable from, the classroom's social climate. a theoretical integration of the two perspectives can enhance understanding of the nature of positive classroom environments, advance research in this area, and also contribute to educational practice. we elaborate in this article on the support for integrating the two perspectives. we begin by reviewing achievement goal theory and specifically the construct of classroom goal structures. we then review the social climate literature on the role of students' perceptions of social relationships within the classroom. we continue by proposing a theoretical integration of goal structures with social processes within the classroom climate, focusing on mastery goal structure. we then test our proposal by conducting a series of four studies to investigate the hypothesized relations among the constructs.
How does  large droplets produced?
longwave cooling of water droplets at the tops of stratiform clouds and fog layers has been suggested as a mechanism for the production of large droplets
How enhancement in saturation increases ?
the enhancement in saturation increases with increasing drop size. not only is the growth of larger drops enhanced, but for a weakly convective cloud, large drops that experience supersaturated conditions may grow at the expense of smaller ones that experience subsaturated conditions (harrington et al. 2000). broadening may therefore occur toward both the largeand small-drop ends of the spectrum
What is amphiphilic organic compounds ?
the main idea is that some amphiphilic organic compounds [that we will term filmforming compounds (ffcs)]1can form compressed films on the surface of droplets, and that this coating may inhibit droplet growth for long enough that some fraction of droplets grow in conditions of relatively high supersaturation and they achieve larger sizes than they would have, had the entire population of drops been growing simultaneously. by the time the film on the haze droplets is reduced to less than a complete monolayer, and these drops can thereafter grow freely, the size spectrum is significantly broader than that achieved in ffc-free conditions. we stress that this study is exploratory in nature and somewhat speculative in that little is known about the abundance, nature, and distribution of ffcs in atmospheric aerosol. nevertheless, we feel it is important to
longwave cooling of water droplets at the tops of stratiform clouds and fog layers has been suggested as a mechanism for the production of large droplets (e.g., roach 1976). net radiative cooling of the droplets allows the latent heat of condensation to be dissipated more rapidly than when cooling is absent. the effective saturation felt by a drop is larger than that calculated without this effect; the enhancement in saturation increases with increasing drop size. not only is the growth of larger drops enhanced, but for a weakly convective cloud, large drops that experience supersaturated conditions may grow at the expense of smaller ones that experience subsaturated conditions (harrington et al. 2000). broadening may therefore occur toward both the largeand small-drop ends of the spectrum. zhang et al. (1999) showed that the addition of sulfate mass to droplets as a result of heterogeneous chemical processing may enhance the ability of large drops to grow, and in some processing scenarios broaden the drop spectrum. there, too, it was found that under weak convective conditions, the enhanced solute effect resulting from processing may allow large drops to grow at the expense of small ones. finally, the existence of even small concentrations (order of 1 1) of giant or ultragiant cloud condensation nuclei (ccn; radii   1  m) that quickly achieve radii of 20  m in humid conditions can initiate spectral broadening through collision coalescence (e.g., johnson 1982; feingold et al. 1999). this mechanism differs from the others in that it invokes droplet collision coalescence, rather than condensation growth, to explain broadening. this paper does not dispute these works, nor does it attempt to ascertain their relative importance. instead it focuses on an alternative mechanism which has not been widely considered. the main idea is that some amphiphilic organic compounds [that we will term filmforming compounds (ffcs)]1can form compressed films on the surface of droplets, and that this coating may inhibit droplet growth for long enough that some fraction of droplets grow in conditions of relatively high supersaturation and they achieve larger sizes than they would have, had the entire population of drops been growing simultaneously. by the time the film on the haze droplets is reduced to less than a complete monolayer, and these drops can thereafter grow freely, the size spectrum is significantly broader than that achieved in ffc-free conditions. we stress that this study is exploratory in nature and somewhat speculative in that little is known about the abundance, nature, and distribution of ffcs in atmospheric aerosol. nevertheless, we feel it is important to
Which sampled comparatively infrequently?
for practical reasons, most cores, either marine or ice, are sampled comparatively infrequently
What is the phenomenon of aliasing?
the phenomenon of aliasing is the spurious appearance of high frequency energy at low frequencies, when the record is not sampled rapidly enough
Describe  mathematical statement?
a mathematical statement is that to avoid the effect, one must sample at (uniform) time intervals, d t 1 d 2 smaxth d 12 th where smax is the highest frequency contributing to the underlying continuous record
for practical reasons, most cores, either marine or ice, are sampled comparatively infrequently. the phenomenon of aliasing is the spurious appearance of high frequency energy at low frequencies, when the record is not sampled rapidly enough. a mathematical statement is that to avoid the effect, one must sample at (uniform) time intervals, d t 1 d 2 smaxth d 12 th where smax is the highest frequency contributing to the underlying continuous record. see the discussions, e.g., by pisias and mix (1988) and wunsch (2000). the rigorous requirement can never actually be met with a finite duration record, but in practice all one need require is that the energy inappropriately occurring at low frequencies should be an acceptably small fraction of the energy which properly belongs there. if a spectral density diminishes rapidly enough with frequency above some frequency, s0, one can simply choose d t 1/(2 s0) and the residual aliasing will be negligible. if the spectral shape overall is proportional to an s-2
Where can you find the determination of the dispersion number?
the determination of the dispersion number d was discussed in section 13.6
What dispersion number is needed to obtain efficiencies greater than 99.9%?
to obtain efficiencies greater than 99.9% (3-log removal) without excessive detention times, a dispersion number lower than 0.3, or preferably 0.1, is needed
Is coefficient KB different from adopted values?
it should be borne in mind that the coefficient kb in the dispersed-flow regime is usually different from the value adopted for the complete-mix regime (see sections 17.3.4 and 13.6.4
in reality, the behaviour of ponds follows the dispersed-flow hydraulic regime, and not the idealised regimes of complete mix and plug flow. figure 17.3 presents the graph of the values of the efficiency e and the number of logarithmic units removed as a function of the dimensionless pair kb.t and the dispersion number d. the determination of the dispersion number d was discussed in section 13.6. it should be borne in mind that the coefficient kb in the dispersed-flow regime is usually different from the value adopted for the complete-mix regime (see sections 17.3.4 and 13.6.4). in the case of a single pond, the figure shows clearly the importance of having a pond with a low dispersion number, tending to the plug-flow regime, in order to increase the removal efficiency. to obtain efficiencies greater than 99.9% (3-log removal) without excessive detention times, a dispersion number lower than 0.3, or preferably 0.1, is needed. these dispersion numbers are only obtained in ponds that have a length/breadth (l/b) ratio greater than 5 or 10 (see table 13.7). removal of pathogenic organisms 583
How the PCA was performed?
the pca was performed on all residual chronologies from the four species and for the common interval 1950-2003
How the loadings of the PCs were utilized?
the loadings of the pcs were utilized for analysis of common and species-specific patterns over the latitude
What was to quantify the common variance among species and site residual chronologies along the gradient and to better synthesize changes in the radial growth-climate associations across the latitude used?
to quantify the common variance among species and site residual chronologies along the gradient and to better synthesize changes in the radial growth-climate associations across the latitude, a principal components analysis (pca) was used
to quantify the common variance among species and site residual chronologies along the gradient and to better synthesize changes in the radial growth-climate associations across the latitude, a principal components analysis (pca) was used. all the data were standardized to have zero mean and unit standard deviation before using pca. the pca was performed on all residual chronologies from the four species and for the common interval 1950-2003. through standard pca techniques in canoco (version 4.52; ter braak smilauer, 2003), the 34 residual chronologies were transformed into principal components (pcs). a correlation matrix where the 34 site chronologies were considered as variables and the years as observations was used. the loadings of the pcs were utilized for analysis of common and species-specific patterns over the latitude. the eigenvalue-one criterion (kaiser, 1960) and the criterion that any pc accounts for at least 5% of the total variance were used to determine the meaningful pcs to be retained for interpretation (legendre legendre, 1998). given that our less reliable precipitation data predicted from anusplin could influence the results of growth-climate associations calculated by response function, the bootstrapped correlation analysis was used in our study. to identify the common climate factors limiting the radial growth of all four species along the gradient, bootstrapped correlations between the retained meaningful pcs and monthly climate data (variables described above) were calculated using
Does the recovery phase look to be slower or faster than the onset?
the recovery phase, as illustrated by d18o and d13c plots against thickness for odp site 690 in the southern oceans, looks to be considerably slower than the onse
What indicates a more rapid return to pre-excursion isotopic values?
the helium-isotope data indicate an acceleration of sedimentation rate following the initial isotopic events and hence indicate a more rapid return to pre-excursion isotopic values than indicated by the use of sedimentary thickness as a linear proxy for time
What happened during PETM to reduce net sedimentation rates?
widespread dissolution of pelagic carbonate
rapid climate change in the greenhouse world 1893 is given by the relative abundance of3he, assuming a constant flux of this extraterrestrial isotope to the sea floor (farley eltgroth 2003). the recovery phase, as illustrated by d18o and d13c plots against thickness for odp site 690 in the southern oceans, looks to be considerably slower than the onset (figure 2). however, the helium-isotope data indicate an acceleration of sedimentation rate following the initial isotopic events and hence indicate a more rapid return to pre-excursion isotopic values than indicated by the use of sedimentary thickness as a linear proxy for time. widespread dissolution of pelagic carbonate during the petm itself may have reduced net sedimentation rates relative to those that characterized the return to more normal oceanographic conditions.
Who has been considering issues of climate protection for several years?
the municipal government of durban has been considering issues of climate protection for several years (this case study draws from roberts, 2008
Define Climate Future for Durban?
this included the climate future for durban programme initiated in 2004 with the council for scientific and industrial research (a parastatal research organisation) to consider the implications of global and regional climatechange science for durban, and the development of a headline climate change adaptation strategy for the city to highlight how key sectors within the municipality should begin responding to unavoidable climate change and incorporating climate change into long-term city planning
Who are working with the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research?
the municipality and csir are working with the tyndall centre for climate change research (in the uk) to develop a model that will enable the simulation, evaluation and comparison of strategic urban development plans within the context of climate change
the municipal government of durban has been considering issues of climate protection for several years (this case study draws from roberts, 2008). this included the climate future for durban programme initiated in 2004 with the council for scientific and industrial research (a parastatal research organisation) to consider the implications of global and regional climatechange science for durban, and the development of a headline climate change adaptation strategy for the city to highlight how key sectors within the municipality should begin responding to unavoidable climate change and incorporating climate change into long-term city planning. the municipality and csir are working with the tyndall centre for climate change research (in the uk) to develop a model that will enable the simulation, evaluation and comparison of strategic urban development plans within the context of climate change. the headline climate change adaptation strategy includes predicted changes and likely effects of climate change, 2070-2100 for infrastructure, population health, food security and agriculture, water, tourism/business and biodiversity/coastal zone. this makes clear the relevance of climatechange issues for virtually all departments and agencies within the municipal government. this work emphasises how each department of local government needs to consider the effects of climate change within its departmental responsibilities. only when this happens, and when climate science can provide each locality with a stronger idea of climate-change impacts and how these will change over time, will detailed costings for infrastructure adaptation become possible.
What is critical for prediciting the response of clouds to climate change?
representation of convective and boundary-layer processes, in addition to the parameterization of cloud properties
How was the ratiative response of clouds to changing environmental conditions measured?
15 coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models (oagcms) that have performed simulations in support of the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change
What percentage of carbon dioxide change per year was used for the models?
1
for more than a decade, the large spread of cloud feedbacks among climate models has been considered a major source of uncertainty for climate sensitivity estimates cess et al. 1990; houghton et al. 2001; colman 2003; stephens 2005]. the representation of convective and boundary-layer processes, in addition to the parameterization of cloud properties, is known to be critical for the prediction of the clouds response to climate change [e.g., senior and mitchell 1993; yao and genio 1999], and it differs widely among models. whether the spread of cloud feedbacks among current models results primarily from different responses of deep convective clouds, boundary-layer clouds or both remains an open question. to investigate this issue, we examine the radiative response of clouds to a change in environmental conditions which is predicted over tropical oceans (30  s-30  n) by 15 coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models (oagcms) that have performed simulations in support of the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. first, we consider idealized climate change scenarios in which the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide increases by 1% per year, and we analyze the large-scale conditions in which the tropical clouds response to global warming is the most different among models. second, we analyze observations and 20th century simulations performed by the same models to explore how the radiative effect of clouds (referred to as the cloud radiative forcing or crf) is affected by a change in environmental conditions at the interannual timescale, and to investigate in what situations the disagreement is the greatest among models, and between models and observations.
What are the technologies to realize global distribution of sales ?
a lack of transferability of fsas is thus not necessarily the result of the tacitness of the knowledge on which they are based, but instead determined by the ability of mnes to create market acceptance for new technologies to realize global distribution of sales (cuervo-cazurra et al., 2007; rugman verbeke, 2004). in other words, although mnes may have some influence on market acceptance through marketing campaigns, it largely depends on csas related to consumer responsiveness to climate-friendly products and services and availability of the necessary public infrastructure
Explain two main problems?
two main problems related to a successful launch of marketable fuel cell cars are the relatively high costs compared to conventional cars and the lack of a hydrogen infrastructure (griffiths, 2005). high costs are likely to impede transferability of these cars to low-income countries, while the establishment of a hydrogen infrastructure is necessary in any country where an mne wants to sell fuel cell cars.5 mackintosh (2005b) has formulated this problem of setting up a hydrogen infrastructure as follows
Does drivers  want hydrogen car?
drivers will not want hydrogen cars until there is a network of filling stations. but no company will invest in filling stations - and hydrogen production - until there is a critical mass of cars
a lack of transferability of fsas is thus not necessarily the result of the tacitness of the knowledge on which they are based, but instead determined by the ability of mnes to create market acceptance for new technologies to realize global distribution of sales (cuervo-cazurra et al., 2007; rugman verbeke, 2004). in other words, although mnes may have some influence on market acceptance through marketing campaigns, it largely depends on csas related to consumer responsiveness to climate-friendly products and services and availability of the necessary public infrastructure. for example, two main problems related to a successful launch of marketable fuel cell cars are the relatively high costs compared to conventional cars and the lack of a hydrogen infrastructure (griffiths, 2005). high costs are likely to impede transferability of these cars to low-income countries, while the establishment of a hydrogen infrastructure is necessary in any country where an mne wants to sell fuel cell cars.5 mackintosh (2005b) has formulated this problem of setting up a hydrogen infrastructure as follows: drivers will not want hydrogen cars until there is a network of filling stations. but no company will invest in filling stations - and hydrogen production - until there is a critical mass of cars.
What is obscured in national surveys typically used to measure public opinion?
public opinion, however, is typically measured with national surveys that obscure geographic variability across regions, states, and localities
What does the presented model accurately predict?
the model accurately predicts climate change beliefs, risk perceptions, and policy preferences at the state, congressional district, metropolitan, and county levels
Nationally, what percentage of Americans believe global warming is happening?
nationally, 63% of americans believe global warming is happening
addressing climate change in the united states requires enactment of national, state, and local mitigation and adaptation policies. the success of these initiatives depends on public opinion, policy support, and behaviors at appropriate scales. public opinion, however, is typically measured with national surveys that obscure geographic variability across regions, states, and localities. here we present independently validated high-resolution opinion estimates using a multilevel regression and poststratification model. the model accurately predicts climate change beliefs, risk perceptions, and policy preferences at the state, congressional district, metropolitan, and county levels, using a concise set of demographic and geographic predictors. the analysis finds substantial variation in public opinion across the nation. nationally, 63% of americans believe global warming is happening, but county-level estimates range from 43-80%, leading to a diversity of political environments for climate policy. these estimates provide an important new source of information for policymakers, educators, and scientists to more effectively address the challenges of climate change.
What was the aim of study and based on which country ?
this study was aimed at assessing the potential impacts of climate change on the depth and duration of soil frost under snow cover in forests growing at different geographical locations in finland
What was the model used in forecasting the climate change ?
the climate change forecast used in the computations was based on the global ocean-atmosphere general circulation model hadcm2 that was dynamically downscaled to the regional level
What are the climate changes associated with decrease in snow cover in southern Finland ?
though winters will be warmer, the associated decrease in snow cover in southern finland will increase the probability of frozen ground there in the middle of winter compared with the current climate. in central and northern finland there will be so much snow, even in the future, that the maximum annual soil frost depth will decrease there
this study was aimed at assessing the potential impacts of climate change on the depth and duration of soil frost under snow cover in forests growing at different geographical locations in finland. frost simulations using a process-based forest ecosystem model (finnfor) were made for scots pine pinus sylvestris l. stands (height 17 m, stand density 1100 stems ha-1) growing on a moraine sandy soil. the climate change forecast used in the computations was based on the global ocean-atmosphere general circulation model hadcm2 that was dynamically downscaled to the regional level. the simulated climate warming during the winter months was about 4 to 5degc by the end of the 21st century. frost simulations showed that the length of the soil frost period would lessen all over the country. though winters will be warmer, the associated decrease in snow cover in southern finland will increase the probability of frozen ground there in the middle of winter compared with the current climate. in central and northern finland there will be so much snow, even in the future, that the maximum annual soil frost depth will decrease there. key words: climate change * soil frost * soil freezing * snow cover * hydraulic frost model * scots pine
Desribe the characteristic of this study?
this study shows that a characteristic of white stork population dynamics is strong density dependence (table 1, fig. 2) and relatively small environmental stochasticity (table 1) that are influenced by climatic conditions during the breeding season as well as in the wintering areas in africa (fig. 3
Where does the Local climate acted mainly?
local climate in the breeding areas acted mainly by synchronizing the spatial variation in residual population fluctuations after accounting for density dependence and demographic stochasticity in the local dynamics (fig. 4
On which the analysis are based on?
these analyses are based on several simplifying assumptions. 1. obtaining unbiased estimates of the specific growth rate r1 are extremely difficult for populations fluctuating around the carrying capacity (aanes et al 2002; lande et al 2002
this study shows that a characteristic of white stork population dynamics is strong density dependence (table 1, fig. 2) and relatively small environmental stochasticity (table 1) that are influenced by climatic conditions during the breeding season as well as in the wintering areas in africa (fig. 3). local climate in the breeding areas acted mainly by synchronizing the spatial variation in residual population fluctuations after accounting for density dependence and demographic stochasticity in the local dynamics (fig. 4). these analyses are based on several simplifying assumptions. 1. obtaining unbiased estimates of the specific growth rate r1 are extremely difficult for populations fluctuating around the carrying capacity (aanes et al 2002; lande et al 2002). we therefore assumed that the specific growth rate r1 for the population in western france also was typical for all our eastern european populations. although this estimate lies within the range that is estimated for several other bird species, it is considerably higher
How can climate policies be more effective?
climate policies can be more effective when consistently embedded within broader strategies designed to make national and regional development paths more sustainable
How will socio-economic and technological characteristics of different development path affect?
in particular, the socio-economic and technological characteristics of different development paths will strongly affect emissions, the rate and magnitude of climate change, climate change impacts, the capability to adapt, and the capacity to mitigate
WHat does the TAR assess?
the tar assesses available information on the timing, opportunities, costs, benefits, and impacts of various mitigation and adaptation options. it indicates that there are opportunities for countries acting individually, and in cooperation with others, to reduce costs of mitigation and adaptation and to realize benefits associated with achieving sustainable development
the climate change issue is part of the larger challenge of sustainable development. as a result, climate policies can be more effective when consistently embedded within broader strategies designed to make national and regional development paths more sustainable. this occurs because the impact of climate variability and change, climate policy responses, and associated socio-economic development will affect the ability of countries to achieve sustainable development goals. conversely, the pursuit of those goals will in turn affect the opportunities for, and success of, climate policies. in particular, the socio-economic and technological characteristics of different development paths will strongly affect emissions, the rate and magnitude of climate change, climate change impacts, the capability to adapt, and the capacity to mitigate. the tar assesses available information on the timing, opportunities, costs, benefits, and impacts of various mitigation and adaptation options. it indicates that there are opportunities for countries acting individually, and in cooperation with others, to reduce costs of mitigation and adaptation and to realize benefits associated with achieving sustainable development.
What are neew IBA?
furthermore, the range shifts required to reach newly suitable ibas, while substantial in a minority of cases, are far less so for the majority of species. for each of the 1608 species, we calculated the minimum geodesic distance between the centroid of each iba projected to become newly climatically suitable for that species in the future (2085), and the centroid of the nearest iba projected to be currently occupied
What is range shift?
furthermore, the range shifts required to reach newly suitable ibas, while substantial in a minority of cases, are far less so for the majority of species. for each of the 1608 species, we calculated the minimum geodesic distance between the centroid of each iba projected to become newly climatically suitable for that species in the future (2085), and the centroid of the nearest iba projected to be currently occupied
What does IBA project?
furthermore, the range shifts required to reach newly suitable ibas, while substantial in a minority of cases, are far less so for the majority of species. for each of the 1608 species, we calculated the minimum geodesic distance between the centroid of each iba projected to become newly climatically suitable for that species in the future (2085), and the centroid of the nearest iba projected to be currently occupied
furthermore, the range shifts required to reach newly suitable ibas, while substantial in a minority of cases, are far less so for the majority of species. for each of the 1608 species, we calculated the minimum geodesic distance between the centroid of each iba projected to become newly climatically suitable for that species in the future (2085), and the centroid of the nearest iba projected to be currently occupied. the median distance (across all 1608 species, and within a species, across all ibas projected to become climatically suitable, averaged across gcms) was 136.3 km (range 18.8-5988 km). hence, the median distance a species will have to shift each year from an iba in which it is currently projected to occur, to occupy all newly climatically suitable ibas by 2085, is c. 2 km. despite this figure masking a wide range of variability across individual species, it suggests that the rates of turnover we project are potentially achievable and hence that our results represent a realistic scenario of community disruption as a consequence of 21st century climate change.
What environment is most suitable for coffee plants to grow in Brazil?
areas of low altitude 
What coffee strains represent more than 90% of the arabica coffee trees currently in production in Brazil?
tupi, and ouro verde
which strain presented a mean yield of 49 sacks per hectare of clean coffee?
the obata cultivar 
irrigation: this practice has been the main factor to allow the establishment of the coffee plant in brazilian marginal areas of low altitude in that the mean air temperatures are high for the usual cultivation of the arabica coffee. genetic breeding: the genetic improvement of arabica and robusta plants in the "centro de cafe alcides carvalho" (iac) has always emphasized the development of material with high yields, quality, strength, and longevity. the cultivars developed at the iac include bourbon, icatu, mundo novo, acaia, catuai, obata iac 1669-20, tupi, and ouro verde, which represent more than 90% of the arabica coffee trees currently in production in brazil. according to fazuoli et al. (2007b) the cultivar obata iac 1669-20 is resistant to coffee leaf rust, compact size, suitable for planting in rows or at high densities, and especially good yield and quality. bergo et al. (2008) evaluated 40 cultivars of arabica and robusta coffee from 1994 to 2004 in rio branco region, state of acre, brazil, where the annual mean air temperature is close 25 degc. the study was carried out in the experimental field of embrapa-acre, and authors concluded that the best yield performance was the obata iac 1669-20 cultivar with significant difference in relation to the other cultivars. the obata cultivar presented a mean yield of 49 sacks per hectare of clean coffee. this is an example of genetic improvement based on selective breeding of species arabica and robusta and of how improvement can contribute to the sustainability of coffee cultivation even under marginal lands with unfavorable air temperature. conclusions 1. agronomic techniques can be used, alone or in a complementary way to mitigate extreme meteorological events and to face the challenge of climatic variability or global warming on coffee crop. fundamental scientific research using different coffee crop management, genetic breeding and new molecular tools and focusing on this subject is high recommended, and the impact of the agronomic technologies on coffee copping systems particularly in marginal lands, is a challenge to be handled within the near future. 2. under agronomical aspects some strategies may have on global warming in coffee crop that can attenuate the impact of unfavorable temperatures are agronomical mitigations such as shading management system (arborization), planting at high densities, vegetated soil, correct irrigation and agronomical adaptation with focus on breeding programs. 3. for the next decades the agriculture, especially the coffee crop will be more developed and protected with agronomic techniques of adaptation and mitigation that certainly will continue to be developed by the technical and scientific world coffee crop community. references
What is an important determinant for the overall magnitude of flooding from the Gnages, Brahmaputra, and Meghna?
the timing of the peaks of the three major river systems (ganges, brahmaputra and meghna) is an important determinant of the overall magnitude of flooding
What are the primary drivers of the declining rice production during growth seasons?
impacts on the 'aman' (monsoon season rice) and 'aus' (inter-season rice) are the primary drivers of declining overall production during major flood events (driven mainly by area changes); these losses, however, are increasingly being compensated for by 'boro' (dry season rice
Why is the agricultural GDP becoming less sensitive to environmental variability?
impacts on the 'aman' (monsoon season rice) and 'aus' (inter-season rice) are the primary drivers of declining overall production during major flood events (driven mainly by area changes); these losses, however, are increasingly being compensated for by 'boro' (dry season rice). as a result, compared to the pre-1990s, agricultural gdp is becoming less sensitive to this climate variability. finally, droughts and coastal inundation from sea level rise can have consequences for agriculture production as large as those from floods
regular flooding of various types (e.g. flash, riverine) has traditionally been beneficial. however, low frequency but high magnitude floods can have adverse impacts on rural livelihoods and production (e.g. the 1998 flood resulted in a loss of over 2mt of production). the timing of the peaks of the three major river systems (ganges, brahmaputra and meghna) is an important determinant of the overall magnitude of flooding. the economy-wide impact of these extreme events can be substantial. impacts on the 'aman' (monsoon season rice) and 'aus' (inter-season rice) are the primary drivers of declining overall production during major flood events (driven mainly by area changes); these losses, however, are increasingly being compensated for by 'boro' (dry season rice). as a result, compared to the pre-1990s, agricultural gdp is becoming less sensitive to this climate variability. finally, droughts and coastal inundation from sea level rise can have consequences for agriculture production as large as those from floods.
What months are used for Stockholm's temperatures?
january- april
What years are used for Stockholm's temperatures?
1502-2008
What countries are referenced in the paragraph?
czech republic, germany and switzerland
temperature reconstructions from europe for the past 500 years based on documentary and instrumental data are analysed. first, the basic documentary data sources, including information about climate and weather-related extremes, are described. then, the standard palaeoclimatological reconstruction method adopted here is discussed with a particular application to temperature reconstructions from documentary-based proxy data. the focus is on two new reconstructions; january- april mean temperatures for stockholm (1502-2008), based on a combination of data for the sailing season in the stockholm harbour and instrumental temperature measurements, and monthly central european temperature (ceut) series (1500- 2007) based on documentary-derived temperature indices of the czech republic, germany and switzerland combined with instrumental records from the same countries. the two series, both of which are individually discussed in greater detail
What is the GCM?
the estimated gcm differential values are added to the rotated record. this is (bad) downscaling of type 1 above; inverse square distance weighting is used over the valid elements of the nearest nine gcm cells
What is the WorldClim?
this can be done with a climate database such as worldclim (hijmans et al., 2005), although prerotated marksim datasets are available. worldclim may be taken to be representative of current climatic conditions (most of the data cover the period 1960-1990
What is WorldClim? Explain?
worldclim may be taken to be representative of current climatic conditions (most of the data cover the period 1960-1990). it uses historical weather data from a number of databases. worldclim uses thin plate smoothing with a fixed lapse rate employing the program anusplin
the estimated gcm differential values are added to the rotated record. this is (bad) downscaling of type 1 above; inverse square distance weighting is used over the valid elements of the nearest nine gcm cells. this can be done with a climate database such as worldclim (hijmans et al., 2005), although prerotated marksim datasets are available. worldclim may be taken to be representative of current climatic conditions (most of the data cover the period 1960-1990). it uses historical weather data from a number of databases. worldclim uses thin plate smoothing with a fixed lapse rate employing the program anusplin. the algorithm is described in hutchinson (1997).
As a system approches its bifurcation point what happens?
becomes unstable, and it switches to some other stat
Would one expect this to see it become accelerated?
one can expect to see it become more sluggish
What is critical slowing down?
mathematically, for systems that are gradually approaching a bifurcation point in their equilibrium solutions, the leading eigenvalue tends towards zero, indicating a tendency towards infinitely slow recovery from perturbations
slow forcing past a bifurcation point (fig. 1a) fits the definition1 of a tipping point (box 1) and shows greatest promise for early warning. in general (and nearly universally38), as a system approaches a bifurcation point where its current state (or mode of variability) becomes unstable, and it switches to some other state (or mode), one can expect to see it become more sluggish in its response to small perturbations5,6,8,39,40. this can be visualized for a system in a potential well that is getting shallower as it approaches a saddle-node bifurcation (fig. 2); the ball representing the present state of the system, rolls back ever slower from perturbations, as bifurcation is approached. mathematically, for systems that are gradually approaching a bifurcation point in their equilibrium solutions, the leading eigenvalue tends towards zero, indicating a tendency towards infinitely slow recovery from perturbations. this phenomenon -- termed 'critical slowing down' in dynamical systems theory -- is widely known6,41, but has only recently been applied to climate dynamics7,8. slowing down causes the intrinsic rates of change in a system to decrease, and therefore the state of the system at any given moment should become more like its past state. this increase in memory can be measured in a variety of ways. as slowing down occurs, time-series data becomes more correlated with itself
how much was the permafrost area reduced from 1970 to 1990?
the area of permafrost has reduced by 100 000 km2over
Why is it important to use reanalysis to represent climate variability in the TP?
is important because of sparse and incomplete surface data
what are the consequences of a possible intensification of the global hydrological cycle?
the consequences of possible intensification of the global hydrological cycle are yet to be evident in the tp
5*c from the 1970s to 1990s over the hinterland of the tp. the area of permafrost has reduced by 100 000 km2over the same period. significant changes in seasonally frozen ground have also been observed with active layer thicknesses increasing and seasonally frozen ground decreasing in layer thickness and duration. in the context of global warming, some new perspectives and unresolved issues concerning changes in the tp are summarized as follows. (1) temperature extremes show patterns consistent with warming, with a large proportion of stations showing statistically significant trends, preferentially for extremes associated with minimum temperatures. precipitation extremes are much less consistent, and often show contrasting trends in various sub-regions, or no trends at all. the consequences of possible intensification of the global hydrological cycle are yet to be evident in the tp. (2) the use of reanalyses to represent climate variability in the tp is important because of sparse and incomplete surface data. however different reanalyses do not agree. era-40 has lower temperature trend magnitudes than surface stations, and ncep fails to capture warming at all. both reanalyses have cold biases. the 'observation minus reanalysis' trend is significantly increasing, with a rate of 0
Define impact of flooding?
in the absence of effective adaptation measures, increased flood hazard as a result of climate change would be likely to exacerbate the health impact of flooding
Explain efforts to build coping capacity ?
moreover, efforts to build coping capacity against the health impacts of future flood risk will in many cases provide immediate health benefits for populations experiencing floods today
in the absence of effective adaptation measures, increased flood hazard as a result of climate change would be likely to exacerbate the health impact of flooding. this additional driver needs to be considered alongside other potential drivers of positive or negative change in flood hazard (such as vegetation and land use changes, and flood management) and vulnerability (such as population growth and poverty reduction). the additional hazard factor implied by climate change may place extra and potentially unanticipated demands on health care provision and other life-supporting services. this may be especially so in circumstances where other drivers such as environmental degradation in low-income african settlements already threaten to overwhelm present adaptive capacities (parker and thompson, 2000). action in response to future risk is hampered by the long time-scales and uncertainty associated with the climate change problem. work is required to address the disparity between risk perception/decision-making time scales (typically 10-20 years) and climate change modelling time scales (50-100 years). though uncertainty remains over the parameters of change, a precautionary approach to response would posit that proof of the effects of the climate change threat should not necessarily be required before adaptive action is taken. moreover, efforts to build coping capacity against the health impacts of future flood risk will in many cases provide immediate health benefits for populations experiencing floods today. point 10
What were the effects of projected land-cover changes?
we evaluated the effect of projected land-cover changes on the breeding distributions of 8,750 species of land birds
Wich the classification of species follows?
the classification of species follows sibley ahlquist 37 for nonpasserines and barker et al. 38 for passerines and was updated for newly described species and recent splits and lumps
Which resolution in geographic projection for further analysis?
originally in polygon format, the maps were re-sampled to 0.01deg resolution
we evaluated the effect of projected land-cover changes on the breeding distributions of 8,750 species of land birds (out of 9,713 total), excluding water birds and endemics of small oceanic islands that were to small to be included in the ma projections (see tables s2 and s3 for lists of included and excluded species, respectively). the classification of species follows sibley ahlquist 37 for nonpasserines and barker et al. 38 for passerines and was updated for newly described species and recent splits and lumps. distributions were compiled from the most accurate sources giving expert opinion range (extent of occurrence) maps for a given broad geographic region or taxonomic group (see figure s4 and table s2 for details). essentially the same sources were used by 39 ]. originally in polygon format, the maps were re-sampled to 0.01deg resolution in geographic projection for further analysis.
What are the visible dangers of climate change?
not only can climate change affect habitat suitability and demography of ticks, it might also affect important hosts necessary for persistence of both ticks and tick-borne pathogens
Mention one gap in resarch of the subject of climate change
the degree to which climate change will alter the spatial distributions, population dynamics and physiology (especially immunology) of hosts for ticks is a poorly studied but promising area for future research
What are the measures to curb climate warming?
the effect of climate warming is expected to be buffered by physiological temperature regulation
not only can climate change affect habitat suitability and demography of ticks, it might also affect important hosts necessary for persistence of both ticks and tick-borne pathogens. several of the models described in ss3 4 incorporate hosts implicitly by allowing climatic conditions to affect host-seeking activity and presumably host encounter rates (e.g. [15,30,87]); given that a tick is questing, contact rates with hosts are generally assumed to be constant. however, the relevant parameters concerning host-seeking activity by ticks and impacts of climate change on the distribution and abundance of tick-hosts have rarely been incorporated into projections of the future distributions of disease risk. because the most important hosts for ixodes ticks in areas impacted by lyme disease and other tick-borne diseases are endotherms, the effect of climate warming is expected to be buffered by physiological temperature regulation. nevertheless, a recent study by roy-dufresne et al. indicates that the geographical range of the white-footed mouse peromyscus leucopus has extended northward in quebec coincident with climate warming between 1975 and the present. roy-dufresne et al. project that, because this mouse is so important both to tick survival [100] and transmission of borrelia burgdorferi [101], a. phagocytophilum [102] and babesia microti [103], continued range expansion will facilitate poleward expansion of lyme disease. population genetic analyses of white-footed mice in quebec suggests that, with the exception of large rivers, there are few geographical barriers to gene flow that might inhibit the ability of this species to track a warming climate and expand northward [104]. while some models of tick range expansion in canada indicate that long-distance dispersal on migratory birds will help ticks and b. burgdorferi track suitable conditions for tick survival as the climate warms [105], a recent projection of a b. burgdorferi risk index suggests that the expansion of the lyme disease agent will be limited by the dispersal of p. leucopus [106]. the degree to which climate change will alter the spatial distributions, population dynamics and physiology (especially immunology) of hosts for ticks is a poorly studied but promising area for future research.
What can be said about the teleconnection patterns associated with IOD and ENSO, mostly in the northern extra-tropics?
it needs to be understood why teleconnection patterns associated with iod and enso have similar but oppositely signed structures over several regions, mostly in the northern extra-tropics
What is a possible explanation for teleconnection patterns associated with IOD and ENSO having similar but oppositely signed structures over several regions?
a possible explanation is that the mid-latitude response is essentially modal in character (ting sardeshmukh 1993) and dominated by a single spatial pattern
rodwell hoskins (1996) and enomoto (2000), and the 'pacific-japan' pattern of nitta (1987), need to be considered. it needs to be understood why teleconnection patterns associated with iod and enso have similar but oppositely signed structures over several regions, mostly in the northern extra-tropics. a possible explanation is that the mid-latitude response is essentially modal in character (ting sardeshmukh 1993) and dominated by a single spatial pattern. the oppositely signed structures are likely due to the existence of a nodal line in the forcing, as suggested in some studies (ting sardeshmukh 1993, barsugli sardeshmukh 2003), such that forcing slightly west or east of this nodal line results in responses of opposite sign.
What has caused a recent shift in the range of species associated with an elevation of the treeline?
a recent shift in the range of the species associated with an elevation of the treeline is commonly attributed to climate warming
What was used to explore the genetic structure of populations along an altitudinal gradient close to the treeline?
using microsatellite markers, we explored the genetic structure of populations along an altitudinal gradient close to the treeline
What did spatial autocorrelation analysis show?
spatial autocorrelation analysis showed low spatial genetic structure within populations because of extensive gene flow
mountain birch, betula pubescens ssp. tortuosa forms the treeline in northern sweden. a recent shift in the range of the species associated with an elevation of the treeline is commonly attributed to climate warming. using microsatellite markers, we explored the genetic structure of populations along an altitudinal gradient close to the treeline. low genetic differentiation was found between populations, whereas high genetic diversity was maintained within populations. high level of gene flow compensated for possible losses of genetic diversity at higher elevations and dissipated the founding effect of newly established populations above the treeline. spatial autocorrelation analysis showed low spatial genetic structure within populations because of extensive gene flow. at the treeline, significant genetic structure within the juvenile age class at small distances did not persist in the adult age class, indicating recent expansion of young recruits due to the warming of the climate. finally, seedling performance above the treeline was positively correlated with parameters related to temperature. these data confirm the high migration potential of the species in response to fluctuating environmental conditions and indicate that it is now invading higher altitudes due to the recent warming of the climate.
What do the normal forms predict for a scalar variable?
even for a scalar variable these normal forms predict a cubic nonlinear drift and a multiplicative correction to constant diffusion through cam noise
How were the normal forms applied to the model?
the normal forms were applied in a parameterestimationstrategytofitthelow-frequencypatterns,suchasthe nao, of a prototype climate model, and the confirmation of the predicted nonlinear cubic drift was evident in these results
What properties of the normal forms should be carefully reviewed in the future?
important future directions should involve careful elucidation of the mathematical properties of the normal forms presented here, in conjunction with their implications through model estimation strategies for important issues in climate change response and prediction
concluding discussion by using systematic principles from applied mathematics unique normal forms for reduced stochastic climate models for lowfrequency teleconnection patterns have been developed here. even for a scalar variable these normal forms predict a cubic nonlinear drift and a multiplicative correction to constant diffusion through cam noise. the normal forms were applied in a parameterestimationstrategytofitthelow-frequencypatterns,suchasthe nao, of a prototype climate model, and the confirmation of the predicted nonlinear cubic drift was evident in these results. normal forms together with energy constraints were also developed here for reduced stochastic models in several dimensions. important future directions should involve careful elucidation of the mathematical properties of the normal forms presented here, in conjunction with their implications through model estimation strategies for important issues in climate change response and prediction.
why there is largest change of over 0.5 1 C in the land regions in the temperate and high northern latitudes ?
this is because the forcing originates in these regions and propagates to the global scale mainly through changes in sea surface temperatures and sea-ice cover
Is CO2 forcing is specific in regions?
in contrast to the biogeophysical forcing, co2 forcing is not region specific but global due to the fast atmospheric mixing of emitted co2. increased co2 concentration leads to a global warming, which is more pronounced in the polar regions due to the sea-ice albedo feedback (fig. 5b
geographical distribution of annual temperature changes is shown in fig. 5. in simulation h_p, all regions show a decrease in temperature with the largest change of over  0.5 1 c in the land regions in the temperate and high northern latitudes (fig. 5a). this is because the forcing originates in these regions and propagates to the global scale mainly through changes in sea surface temperatures and sea-ice cover. in contrast to the biogeophysical forcing, co2 forcing is not region specific but global due to the fast atmospheric mixing of emitted co2. increased co2 concentration leads to a global warming, which is more pronounced in the polar regions due to the sea-ice albedo feedback (fig. 5b). the net effect of both forcings is negligible over the tropical regions but quite
Where do we used these data?
walbaum) over 11 years and corresponding climatological data. we used these data to ask whether natural groups of populations exist in terms of their response to climate and, if so, what factors led to the groupings
Where do the populations we examined rear in streams primarily fed by snow melt from the neighbouring mountains?
the populations we examined rear in streams primarily fed by snow melt from the neighbouring mountains, which results in stream flow and water temperature that are highly variable from year to year. this led to our primary hypothesis that water temperature and stream flow significantly affect juvenile survival in these populations
What are the observations further support this hypothesis?
several observations further support this hypothesis. first, as ectotherms, temperature regulates fish development and growth rates (fry 1967), and has played an important part in the evolution of life-history strategies in salmon (brannon
(walbaum) over 11 years and corresponding climatological data. we used these data to ask whether natural groups of populations exist in terms of their response to climate and, if so, what factors led to the groupings. the populations we examined rear in streams primarily fed by snow melt from the neighbouring mountains, which results in stream flow and water temperature that are highly variable from year to year. this led to our primary hypothesis that water temperature and stream flow significantly affect juvenile survival in these populations. several observations further support this hypothesis. first, as ectotherms, temperature regulates fish development and growth rates (fry 1967), and has played an important part in the evolution of life-history strategies in salmon (brannon
What does the FASTER acronym stand for?
the system is called faster (flood and storm event reporting
What does the FASTER system aim to achieve?
the faster system not only streamlines the inspection of damaged property but also provides all the data needed to build a vulnerability database, and has been endorsed by all the key insurance industry bodies
What are the standards that Australian insurers and mortgage lenders use?
in australia, insurers and mortgage lenders have gone even farther, by drawing up their own set of standards for certain types of buildings. the standards are called the ' blue book ' and have in effect made the official standards redundant because all builders know that unless they follow the blue book, the building will not be insurable and the bank will not lend money on it
insurers know what the problems are; they pay out on them. in relation to flooding they are particularly well prepared. a system has been developed for capturing flood and storm damage data. it has been tested on a number of flood events on a pilot basis, and evaluated and refined by loss adjusters, architects and academics. the system was also used to assist in establishing a national flood claims database for the uk. 47 the system is called faster (flood and storm event reporting). the faster system not only streamlines the inspection of damaged property but also provides all the data needed to build a vulnerability database, and has been endorsed by all the key insurance industry bodies. there is significant reluctance within the claims side of the industry, however, to change existing systems, because the main benefits would be to loss adjusters, consumers and technical underwriters responsible for rate setting, while the benefits to individual insurers ' claims departments are less obvious. the uk insurance industry could perhaps follow the example of the national house building council in the uk and the institute of business and home safety in the usa, by employing their own inspectors, or training government inspectors. in australia, insurers and mortgage lenders have gone even farther, by drawing up their own set of standards for certain types of buildings. the standards are called the ' blue book ' and have in effect made the official standards redundant because all builders know that unless they follow the blue book, the building will not be insurable and the bank will not lend money on it. more free ebooks http://fast-file.blogspot.com
where were the effects of elevated CO2, N deposition, warming and increased precipitation on the composition of organic compounds in plant litter studied?
we investigated the effects of elevated co2, n deposition, warming and increased precipitation on the composition of organic compounds in plant litter in a fully-factorial experiment conducted in a california annual grassland
what increased N in grass & forb litter?
nitrate additions increased n in both grass and forb litter
what had little influence on short term decomposition?
with the exception of variation in n, litter quality had little influence on decomposition over the short term
although global changes can alter ecosystem nutrient dynamics indirectly as a result of their effects on plant litter quality, the interactive effects of global changes on plant litter remain largely unexplored in natural communities. we investigated the effects of elevated co2, n deposition, warming and increased precipitation on the composition of organic compounds in plant litter in a fully-factorial experiment conducted in a california annual grassland. while lignin increased within functional groups under elevated co2, this effect was attenuated by warming in grasses and by water additions in forbs. co2-induced increases in lignin within functional groups also were counteracted by an increase in the relative biomass of forbs, which contained less lignin than grasses. consequently, there was no net change in the overall lignin content of senesced tissue at the plot level under elevated co2. nitrate additions increased n in both grass and forb litter, although this effect was attenuated by water additions. relative to changes in n within functional groups, changes in functional group dominance had a minor effect on overall litter n at the plot level. nitrate additions had the strongest effect on decomposition, increasing lignin losses from avena litter and interacting with water additions to increase decomposition of litter of other grasses. increases in lignin that resulted from elevated co2 had no effect on decomposition but elevated co2 increased n losses from avena litter. overall, the interactions among elements of global change were as important as single-factor effects in influencing plant litter chemistry. however, with the exception of variation in n, litter quality had little influence on decomposition over the short term. keywords carbon dioxide ae decomposition ae global warming ae lignin ae precipitation
What are the estimates for the summer?
in summer the simulated precipitation extremes are overestimated over mountains and underestimated over surroundings slopes
Can the source of the bias be attributed?
a source of this bias cannot be exactly attributed since this region is located just south of the boundary relaxation zone of the rca3 domain (accumulation of humidity is possible) and the gridded observation may suffer from just a few observational stations there
What shows the ensemble average?
the ensemble average, however, shows a significant large-scale increase by 20-40% only in scandinavia and northeastern europe and several local significant intensifications (above 10%), for example, in italy, northern france and a part of iberian and balkan peninsulas
spatial patterns of biases in precipitation extremes in ctl for all individual simulation have a complex, spotty structure that is only slightly smoothed in the ensemble mean, though some details are evident in all simulations. in summer the simulated precipitation extremes are overestimated over mountains and underestimated over surroundings slopes. this feature is most likely related to the too strong winds and excessive diffusion of humidity over steep orography in the rca3 formulation, though undersampling and systematic undercatch over highelevation areas in the observations can also play a role. all simulations show too intense precipitation extremes in northern scandinavia, specially in summer. a source of this bias cannot be exactly attributed since this region is located just south of the boundary relaxation zone of the rca3 domain (accumulation of humidity is possible) and the gridded observation may suffer from just a few observational stations there. in both winter and summer, over a large part of central europe and scandinavia the relative difference between the simulated and observed precipitation extremes is within the +- 30% interval. the projected future changes in summertime extreme precipitation for the individual simulations show mixed small-scale changes with, on average, a tendency to an increase in northern and a decrease in southern europe. the ensemble mean 20-yr return levels significantly increase by 10-30% in scandinavia, poland and the baltic countries and decrease by 10-40% over southwestern parts of the iberian peninsula while no significant changes (larger than 10%) are found over other regions. in winter the spatial patterns of the change in heavy precipitation are more consistent among the individual simulations showing intensification of precipitation extremes over most of europe. the ensemble average, however, shows a significant large-scale increase by 20-40% only in scandinavia and northeastern europe and several local significant intensifications (above 10%), for example, in italy, northern france and a part of iberian and balkan peninsulas. the recurrence time of intense precipitation reduces from 20 yr in ctl to 6-10 yr in scn over northern and some parts of central europe in summer and even more to 2-4 yr locally in scandinavia in winter.
what has the earth's climate system been perturbed by?
the earth's climate system is being perturbed by anthropogenic radiative forcing
What do increases in temperature allow?
increases in temperature allow the specific humidity to increase, which increases the greenhouse effect due to water vapor (the water vapor feedback
the earth's climate system is being perturbed by anthropogenic radiative forcing. in addition to direct radiative forcing of the system (e.g., from anthropogenic greenhouse gases), the responses to radiative forcing (surface and atmospheric temperature changes) cause feedbacks within the system that amplify or damp the changes (schneider 1972; cess et al. 1990; bony et al. 2006). increases in temperature allow the specific humidity to increase, which increases the greenhouse effect due to water vapor (the water vapor feedback). melting of snow or sea ice lowers the surface albedo, resulting in more absorption of solar radiation (the surface albedo feedback). increases in surface and atmospheric temperature cause more emission to space, a cooling effect (temperature feedbacks). clouds exert complex feedbacks due to their opposite shortwave and longwave effects. clouds reflect shortwave radiation to space, cooling the planet, but absorb longwave radiation and emit at cooler temperatures, causing warming. low clouds cool and high clouds warm, with the balance of effects being a net cooling (stephens 2005). changes to cloud amount, location, and radiative properties (e.g., optical depth) can exert feedbacks on the system. any of these feedbacks may significantly alter the magnitude of the response to radiative forcing. the water vapor feedback, for example, is large and positive (held and soden 2000). while it is straightforward to calculate the direct radiative forcing, the feedback response to that
What does the dataset contain?
the dataset contains homogenized and quality controlled daily mean, maximum and minimum temperatures (for stockholm, uppsala and st petersburg only daily mean temperature is available
What are the long-term records used foe?
these long-term records are used here to put the model simulated climate change signals in the perspective of longer-term climate variability
For how long has these stations reported temperature?
these stations report temperature for the last few centuries reaching back into the early instrumental era
in addition to the eca dataset we also use long-term data from seven stations from the improve dataset (camuffo and jones, 2002) that are also shown in figure 1. these stations report temperature for the last few centuries reaching back into the early instrumental era. the stations are: cadiz/san fernando, southern spain 1786-2000; padova, northern italy 1725-1997; milan, northern italy 1763-1998; central belgium, a composite covering 1767-1998 based on several nearby stations; uppsala, central 6 6 sweden 1722-2000; stockholm, central sweden 1756-1998; and st petersburg, russia 1743-1996. the dataset contains homogenized and quality controlled daily mean, maximum and minimum temperatures (for stockholm, uppsala and st petersburg only daily mean temperature is available). these long-term records are used here to put the model simulated climate change signals in the perspective of longer-term climate variability.
Define methane radiative?
for methane radiative forcings, an equilibrium [ch4] is calculated based on the diagnosed perturbation to the methane lifetime (table 4); the rf is then calculated from the di ff erence between the prescribed and equilibrium methane concentrations
How to calculated methane radiative?
for methane radiative forcings, an equilibrium [ch4] is calculated based on the diagnosed perturbation to the methane lifetime (table 4); the rf is then calculated from the di ff erence between the prescribed and equilibrium methane concentrations
How many numbers give in ozone radiative forcings?
for ozone radiative forcings, three numbers are given: the uppermost is the rf from the calculated ozone field (e.g. fig. s7); the middle value is the inferred ozone rf associated with the methane adjustment to equilibrium; the lower number is the net ozone rf
discussion paper discussion paper discussion paper discussion paper table 8. tropospheric ozone and methane radiative forcings (mwm- 2) for each model and attribution experiments #2-5 relative to experiment #1 (year 2000s). for methane radiative forcings, an equilibrium [ch4] is calculated based on the diagnosed perturbation to the methane lifetime (table 4); the rf is then calculated from the di ff erence between the prescribed and equilibrium methane concentrations. for the methane experiment, also shown is the methane rf due to the prescribed (observed) 1850s-2000s change (upper box: 427 mwm- 2; the same in each case) and the net methane rf (lower box). for ozone radiative forcings, three numbers are given: the uppermost is the rf from the calculated ozone field (e.g. fig. s7); the middle value is the inferred ozone rf associated with the methane adjustment to equilibrium; the lower number is the net ozone rf.
What equation is used to calculate the mass balance in the reactor?
the mass balance in the reactor is (see equations 8.16 and 8.19): accumulation input - output production - consumption
What factor is the same as that at any point in the reactor?
as a result, the effluent concentration is the same as that at any point in the reactor
What two conditions describe a reactor in which ?all of the elements that enter the reactor are instantaneously and totally dispersed
the reactor with continuous flow and ideal complete mixing conditions is the one in which all of the elements that enter the reactor are instantaneously and totally dispersed
the reactor with continuous flow and ideal complete mixing conditions is the one in which all of the elements that enter the reactor are instantaneously and totally dispersed. thus, the reactor contents are homogeneous, that is, the concentration of any component is the same at any point in the tank. as a result, the effluent concentration is the same as that at any point in the reactor. the mass balance in the reactor is (see equations 8.16 and 8.19): accumulation input - output production - consumption (8.21) v dc dt q c0 - q c rp .v - rc .v (8.22) 338 basic principles of wastewater treatment
Does climate change create violent conflicts?
despite many claims by high-ranking policymakers and some scientists that climate change breeds violent conflict, the existing empirical literature has so far not been able to identify a systematic, causal relationship of this kind
Why hasn't the existing literature not been able to identify a causal relationship between climate change and violent conflicts?
it may be the consequence of theoretical and methodological limitations of existing work
From this examination, are the economic growth and armed conflicts linked?
we examine the causal pathway linking climatic conditions to economic growth and to armed conflict, and argue that the growth-conflict part of this pathway is contingent on the political system
despite many claims by high-ranking policymakers and some scientists that climate change breeds violent conflict, the existing empirical literature has so far not been able to identify a systematic, causal relationship of this kind. this may either reflect de facto absence of such a relationship, or it may be the consequence of theoretical and methodological limitations of existing work. in this article we revisit the climate-conflict hypothesis along two lines. first, we concentrate on indirect effects of climatic conditions on conflict, whereas most of the existing literature focuses on direct effects. specifically, we examine the causal pathway linking climatic conditions to economic growth and to armed conflict, and argue that the growth-conflict part of this pathway is contingent on the political system. second, we employ a measure of climatic variability that has advantages over those used in the existing literature because it can presumably take into account the adaptation of production to persistent climatic changes. for the empirical analysis we use a global dataset for 1980-2004 and design the testing strategy tightly in line with our theory. our empirical analysis does not produce evidence for the claim that climate variability affects economic growth. however, we find some, albeit weak, support for the hypothesis that non-democratic countries are more likely to experience civil conflict when economic conditions deteriorate. keywords civil conflict, climate change, climate variability, democracy, economic growth
Where did the first-ever reported hurricane in the South Atlantic hit?
in march 2004 the first-ever reported hurricane in the south atlantic hit southern brazil
What initiated as an extratropical cyclone in a frontal system?
catarina initiated as an extratropical cyclone in a frontal system
What did a mid-to-high latitude-blocking index show?
a mid-to-high latitude-blocking index showed that the five days before the genesis were in the 0.6% first percentile of intensity considered over the last 25 years
in march 2004 the first-ever reported hurricane in the south atlantic hit southern brazil. here we show that catarina initiated as an extratropical cyclone in a frontal system, undergoing tropical transition two days later under persistent low vertical wind shear over near-average water temperatures. the trajectory derived from an automatic tracking scheme showed a rare loop before the cyclone approached the coast for a second time. the vertical structure presented anticyclonic relative vorticity above and a small 300 hpa warm core embedded in a cold area. a mid-to-high latitude-blocking index showed that the five days before the genesis were in the 0.6% first percentile of intensity considered over the last 25 years, followed by an unprecedented combination with low shear. the observed and predicted trends towards an increasingly positive phase of the southern annular mode in global warming scenarios could favor similar conditions, increasing the probability of more tropical cyclones in the south atlantic. citation: pezza, a. b., and i. simmonds (2005), the first south atlantic hurricane: unprecedented blocking, low shear and climate change, geophys. res. lett. 32 l15712, doi:10.1029/2005gl023390.
We use a multi-model, multi-scenario climate model for?
identify climate change hotspots in the continental united states
Our ensemble consists of
the cmip3 atmosphere-ocean general circulation models, along with a high-resolution nested climate modeling system
high-resolution climate modeling system produces highly localized hotspots within the?
basic gcm structure
we use a multi-model, multi-scenario climate model ensemble to identify climate change hotspots in the continental united states. our ensemble consists of the cmip3 atmosphere-ocean general circulation models, along with a high-resolution nested climate modeling system. we test both high (a2) and low (b1) greenhouse gas emissions trajectories, as well as two different statistical metrics for identifying regional climate change hotspots. we find that the pattern of peak responsiveness in the cmip3 ensemble is persistent across variations in ghg concentration, ghg trajectory, and identification method. areas of the southwestern united states and northern mexico are the most persistent hotspots. the high-resolution climate modeling system produces highly localized hotspots within the basic gcm structure, but with a higher sensitivity to the identification method. across the ensemble, the pattern of relative climate change hotspots is shaped primarily by changes in interannual variability of the contributing variables rather than by changes in the long-term means.citation: diffenbaugh, n. s., f. giorgi, and j. s. pal (2008), climate change hotspots in the united states, geophys. res. lett. 35 l16709, doi:10.1029/2008gl035075.
What is it
the review argues that fundamental ethics require intergenerational neutrality as
It is British tradition
it stems from the british utilitarian tradition with all the controversies and baggage that accompany with that philosophical stance
About us is it
it stems from the british utilitarian tradition with all the controversies and baggage that accompany with that philosophical stance.19 quite another ethical stance would be to hold that each generation should leave at least as much total societal capital (tangible, natural, human, and technological) as it inherited
the the review argues that fundamental ethics require intergenerational neutrality as represented by a near-zero time discount rate. the logic behind the review's social welfare function is not as universal as it would have us believe. it stems from the british utilitarian tradition with all the controversies and baggage that accompany with that philosophical stance.19 quite another ethical stance would be to hold that each generation should leave at least as much total societal capital (tangible, natural, human, and technological) as it inherited. this would admit a wide array of time discount rates. a third alternative would be a rawlsian perspective that societies should maximize the economic well-being of the poorest generation. the ethical implication of this policy would be that current consumption should increase sharply to reflect the projected future improvements in productivity. yet another approach would be a precautionary (minimax) principle in which societies maximize the minimum consumption along the riskiest path; this might involve stockpiling vaccines, grain, oil, and water in contemplation of possible plagues and famines. yet further perspectives would consider ecological values in addition to anthropocentric values. the morals of major religions - present and future - might clash with the utilitarian calculus of ramsey growth theories.
What did the survey results reveal about men and women's perception of the changes in weather
the survey results also revealed that men and women had similar perceptions of the impacts of the changes in the weather
What were men more likely to report? What were women more likely to report?
men were significantly more likely than women to report there was less fodder and that bore-wells and ponds had dried up. women were significantly more likely than men to report that health was affected
based on the changes in weather they had observed the participants were asked to describe what those changes meant for their lives. men and women speaking in separate focus group discussions recognised the centrality of rainfall for their livelihoods and said that "no rains" or "no timely and sufficient rains" were the primary risks facing agricultural production. the survey results also revealed that men and women had similar perceptions of the impacts of the changes in the weather. ninety percent of men and women surveyed reported that weather changes had led to poorer harvest or reduced crop yields. other changes mentioned included bore-wells or ponds dried up (55 percent), decreases in the number of livestock (34 percent), less fodder (38 percent), shortage of drinking water (30 percent) and health affected (23 percent). men were significantly more likely than women to report there was less fodder and that bore-wells and ponds had dried up. women were significantly more likely than men to report that health was affected.
What is the new physically based, scale-aggregated model particulary suited for?
the model is particularly suited to assess cc-driven coastline change along coastlines adjacent to the thousands of highly vulnerable small inlet-basin systems around the world
What did the model results show can be neglected?
model results indicate that coastline change due to slr-driven basin infilling and cc-driven variations in rainfall/runoff can be very significant along coastlines adjacent to small inlet-basin systems and therefore cannot be neglected
At the selected study sites, what percentage of the  total potential coastline recession is due to the Bruun effect?
at the selected study sites, coastline change due to the bruun effect represents only about 25-50% of the total potential coastline recession
a new physically based, scale-aggregated model to obtain rapid estimates of potential coastline change due to the combined effects of cc-driven slr and variations in rainfall/runoff is developed. the model is particularly suited to assess cc-driven coastline change along coastlines adjacent to the thousands of highly vulnerable small inlet-basin systems around the world. the model was applied to four representative small inletbasin systems to obtain preliminary estimates of potential ccdriven coastline change by 2100. the selected study sites span a sufficiently wide parameter space in relation to the present-day inlet condition, basin size, river flow, tidal prism, and projected cc-driven variations in rainfall/runoff (increases and decreases). model results indicate that coastline change due to slr-driven basin infilling and cc-driven variations in rainfall/runoff can be very significant along coastlines adjacent to small inlet-basin systems and therefore cannot be neglected. considering only the bruun effect, as commonly done, can lead to misleading coastline change estimates that are inappropriate for coastal zone management/planning decisions. at the selected study sites, coastline change due to the bruun effect represents only about 25-50% of the total potential coastline recession.
Which two factors in the micro climate of the coffeeshop makes it a desirable area to visit within the square?
the effective microclimate of the coffeeshop with shading available and the trees next to it render it a more popular area
What is interesting about the seasonal variation in the coffeeshop of Karaiskaki?
when absolute numbers are examined (fig. 8i), it is apparent that when air temperature rises, presence drops in the summer and increases in winter
When air temperatures increase, would you say more or less people will visit the square as a whole?
although, overall, increasing air temperatures is a reason for staying away from the square
the seasonal variation in the coffee-shop of karaiskaki is also interesting. when absolute numbers are examined (fig. 8i), it is apparent that when air temperature rises, presence drops in the summer and increases in winter (with awnings drawn back to allow for sun access). however, when presence is examined in terms of the percentage of people found in the coffee-shop with respect to the overall number of people present in the square at the specific time (fig. 8ii), the situation is reversed for the summer. although, overall, increasing air temperatures is a reason for staying away from the square and hence the coffee-shop, the effective microclimate of the coffeeshop with shading available and the trees next to it render it a more popular area compared to the rest of the square.
What is the carbon source for the autotrophic organisms?
carbon dioxide
What the autotrophic biomass energy source?
ammonia
What the decay of the autotrophic biomass also generates?
besides an inert residue, slowly-degradable carbonaceous and nitrogenous matter
active autotrophic biomass the carbon source for the autotrophic organisms is carbon dioxide. the autotrophic biomass uses ammonia as the energy source (they are chemoautotrophic organisms, that is, they use inorganic matter as energy source). in aerobic conditions, these bacteria use ammonia in the nitrification process, in which ammonia is converted into nitrite and then nitrate. similarly to the heterotrophic organisms, the decay of the autotrophic biomass also generates, besides an inert residue, slowly-degradable carbonaceous and nitrogenous matter. these subsequently need to undergo hydrolysis, to be converted to rapidly-biodegradable matter, which can be used again by the heterotrophic and autotrophic biomass.
How are fire intervals calculated?
fire intervals are computed by detrending the charcoal accumulation rate and then measuring the time between two peaks
What gives rise to individual peaks of charcoal above a background level?
local fires are assumed to generate individual peaks of charcoal above a background level
How is the inverse Fourier transform computed?
an inverse fourier transform computed with the ppphalos software
fire intervals are computed by detrending the charcoal accumulation rate and then measuring the time between two peaks. local fires are assumed to generate individual peaks of charcoal above a background level derived from fires on a regional scale (clark royall 1996) or from charcoal sequestered in the catchment area and its lacustrine littoral zone. the latter represents accumulation over a protracted period before final sedimentation in the deep-water sediments (earle et al 1996; whitlock millspaugh 1996). consideration only of particles larger than 150 u m excludes charcoal produced by regional burning (carcaillet et al 2001) and detrending allows removal of the remaining background signal. it is based on a modelled lowfrequency signal using an inverse fourier transform computed with the ppphalos software. the detrended series represents the residue after subtracting the x tdeg modelled low-frequency signal from the charcoal accumulation rate xt. this method is preferred to the ratio between xt and x tdeg used for data from pollen-slides (bergeron et al 1998). the charcoal background is much lower than on pollen-slides (carcaillet et al 2001) and further amplification is not needed to distinguish the peaks. several low pass filters (3-20 data
What are some mechanisms that entail the carbon market?
carbon offsets, credits, trading, and clean development mechanisms
What declaration gained eminence by objecting to carbon market mechanisms?
the durban declaration on carbon trading
What is the name of the declaration that proposed to establish a Climate Tribunal?
the cochabamba declaration
drawing on these diverse examples, it is important to see the common as a central demand/practice of translocal political networks, rather than as something which is necessarily bounded or particular (gilroy 2010). therefore, the task of commoning is not just to (re)create locally controlled commons, especially for the most marginalised (although this is a crucial task), but also to mount a connected geopolitical challenge to move the present balance of power away from ever more powerful coalitions of multinational institutions and to strengthen a globally connected grassroots movement for greater climate justice. the concept of the common(s) raises some difficult issues for the climate justice movement. mainstream climate management is predicated upon the "privatisation of the air" through carbon market mechanisms--the world of carbon offsets, credits, trading, and clean development mechanisms. commoning in this context implies complete antagonism to all carbon market mechanisms (as articulated by the durban declaration on carbon trading). however, such antagonism must confront the spatial dilemmas associated with attempting to common the global capacity to "develop" through carboniferous capitalism (and its associated greenhouse gas emissions) (harvey 2011). difficult questions arise concerning the institutional and legal frameworks for creating or indeed regulating an "atmospheric commons" (eg through a climate tribunal as suggested in the cochabamba declaration) that are far from being resolved, let alone instigated. moreover, given the current global terrain of "climate governance" (such as the unfccc process) which works directly against climate justice goals, local and translocal climate justice action needs to be a much greater focus for constructing a more effective global challenge in the future. exploring, understanding and promoting novel spatial forms constituted through commoning practices, then, is central to mobilising the alternatives that are developing through place-based movements, networks, and translocal alliances for climate justice. in copenhagen this commoning worked on several levels. first, the many spaces attempted to put prefigurative politics into practice and create a physical commons in order to educate, inspire and organise. the klimaforum acted as an informational commons that over its 12 days featured 202 debates, 70 exhibitions and 43 films covering a wide range of climate-related issues. it provided a space for bringing together activists from different struggles. the various self-managed autonomous spaces around the city embodied the practice of commoning where actions during the protests were planned, information provided, media reports written, and solidarities forged between activists from different local and national contexts. for example, one space served as the location where lvc activists from across the world who had arrived in copenhagen could sleep, eat and hold strategy and campaign meetings. these spaces were largely self-managed by local collectives, with groups of activists from other countries bolstering efforts to maintain and coordinate these spaces. over the week, these stable bases formed an infrastructure for design making, discussion, action planning, post action safety, debriefing and trauma support. such commoning practices in alternative spaces also solidify strong subcultures associated with radical activism. these can be useful in terms of maintaining an oppositional politics, but they can also hinder the actual cause
What are human sources of methane?
from the decomposition of organic waste in landfills and the production of animals for food
What are human sources of carbon dioxide?
the burning of fossil fuels
this is largely the result of changes in ghg-emitting human activities that increased substantially following the industrial revolution. several key ghgs that are directly the result of human activity are carbon dioxide (e.g., from the burning of fossil fuels), methane (e.g., from the decomposition of organic waste in landfills and the production of animals for food), and nitrous oxide (e.g., from industrial processes).5as shown in figure 1, environmental systems and human systems are inextricably interconnected. in the united states, for example, individuals and households account for about 40% of the direct energy consumed, through home energy use and transport, and this does not take into account their indirect energy use through the purchase of other consumer goods and services.7thus, climate-relevant individual decisions are at the heart of climate change. given that people often have difficulty identifying the causes of their behavior,8the task falls to researchers to reveal the factors that most influence their decisions. of course, climate change-relevant behavior is not solely dependent on individuals. collective psychological processes also come into play. collective guilt, for example, is experienced when people perceive that their in-group is responsible for doing harm.9in terms of the present issue, collective guilt about ghg emissions mediates the effect of climate change beliefs on willingness to engage in mitigation behaviors.10collective or group decision making is also important that groups have a voice in the decision can affect, for example, which mitigation strategy is supported.11these findings suggest that collective emotions and collective decision-making must be considered in order to fully encourage mitigative behavior.
What do we mean by the "slope"?
the slope (mean beta value from the bootstrapped distribution of betas
What is the goal here?
our goal here is not to forecast future mortality rates but to examine the sensitivity of mortality to a few different inter-monthly patterns of temperature change
What does the goal allow?
this allows us to examine the issue of how a winter warming might compensate for increased summer mortality during hot months--a topic that lies at the heart of the seasonal mortality issue
now that monthly mortality-temperature relationships have been identified for each msa and month, independent of technological trends, it is possible to estimate the past mortality change over our period of record given the observed temperature trends and to proffer some insights on the potential impacts of future climate change. for each city-month with statistically significant mortality-temperature relationships, the slope (mean beta value from the bootstrapped distribution of betas) of the mortality-temperature regression relationship is multiplied by the observed temperature change, to produce a mortality change over the period of record. we also use the beta values for each statistically significant city-month to estimate future mortality rates (change in deaths per decade) by multiplying the regression slopes by several different seasonal temperature change patterns. we apply 3 different temperature change situations to each city to demonstrate the sensitivity of the results to the seasonal patterns of potential climate change: a uniform 1degc warming across all months; a winter-dominant warming (1.5degc mo- 1 from october-march and 0.5degc mo- 1 from april-september); and a summer-dominant warming (1.5degc mo- 1in the warm half-year and 0.5degc mo- 1in the cold half-year). the individual city responses are then summed to produce a net national response. our goal here is not to forecast future mortality rates but to examine the sensitivity of mortality to a few different inter-monthly patterns of temperature change. this allows us to examine the issue of how a winter warming might compensate for increased summer mortality during hot months--a topic that lies at the heart of the seasonal mortality issue.
What does the author say has been overlooked in UNFCCC negotiations?
negotiations under the united nations framework convention on climate change (unfccc) have overlooked livestock
How many countries are part of the Global Alliance for Climate-Smart Agriculture?
the global alliance for climate-smart agriculture - comprising 16 countries
negotiations under the united nations framework convention on climate change (unfccc) have overlooked livestock. efforts to establish a specific workstream on agriculture have failed, and talks have instead focused on a framework for reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation and enhancing forest carbon stocks in developing countries (redd+). of potentially more immediate relevance to livestock, the global alliance for climate-smart agriculture - comprising 16 countries and 37 organizations - was launched at the un climate summit on 24 september in new york. this counts among its objectives the 'reduction and/or removal' of agricultural emissions,11 though the extent to which it will address livestock remains to be seen. international finance for agricultural mitigation is also limited. agriculture accounts for a tiny proportion of projects under the clean development mechanism12 - a market-based mechanism under the kyoto protocol which allows countries to fund emissions-reduction projects in developing countries that count towards reduction commitments at home. furthermore, agriculture receives only four per cent of the total mitigation finance provided by the multilateral development banks.13
What was Elinor Ostrom's research agenda?
provided a fundamental contribution to the understanding of collective action, trust, and cooperation in the management of common pool resources, including the atmosphere
What was Elinor Ostrom's job role?
professor of political science at indiana university
What has been the focus of Working Groups III?
the assessment of climate change mitigation across different levels of governance, sectors and regions has been a new focus of the working group iii contribution to ar5
we dedicate this report to the memory of elinor ostrom, professor of political science at indiana university and nobel laureate in economics. her work provided a fundamental contribution to the understanding of collective action, trust, and cooperation in the management of common pool resources, including the atmosphere. she launched a research agenda that has encouraged scientists to explore how a variety of overlapping policies at city, national, regional, and international levels can enable humankind to manage the climate problem. the assessment of climate change mitigation across different levels of governance, sectors and regions has been a new focus of the working group iii contribution to ar5. we have benefited greatly from the vision and intellectual leadership of elinor ostrom.
What is a necessary strategy to guarantee low upward velocities during peak flows?
the increased cross section of the reactor close to the sedimentation compartment may be a necessary strategy to guarantee low upward velocities during peak flows
What are the shapes of the reactors in plan?
the shape of the reactors in plan can be either circular or rectangular
What reactors are more suitable for larger populations and why?
rectangular reactors are more suitable for larger populations, when modulation becomes necessary, once design of anaerobic reactors 745
on the other hand, the influent to a domestic sewage treatment plant undergoes no equalisation (unless there is a pumping station), exposing the uasb reactor to flow and load variations that may be extremely high. once again, the increased cross section of the reactor close to the sedimentation compartment may be a necessary strategy to guarantee low upward velocities during peak flows. the shape of the reactors in plan can be either circular or rectangular. circular reactors are more economical from the structural point of view, being used more for small populations, usually with a single unit. rectangular reactors are more suitable for larger populations, when modulation becomes necessary, once design of anaerobic reactors 745
Is temperature varies significantly?
temperature does not vary significantly through the year
What does hydrograph shows?
n contrast, the hydrograph shows that precipitation is greatest in april and december, whereas potential evapo-transpiration greatly exceeds rainfall from june through august (the southern hemisphere winter months). source instituto nacional de meteorologia (inmet) in terms of services, the city has a reasonably clean and reliable water supply that is piped in from rivers in the state of minas gerais to the north
How the electricity is largely generated?
electricity is largely generated by brazil's major hydroelectric facilities, which supply 92 per cent of the country's electricity needs. a drought in 2001 led to electricity shortages throughout the country, and consumers in rio de janeiro were ordered to cut consumption by 20-25 per cent
temperature does not vary significantly through the year. in contrast, the hydrograph shows that precipitation is greatest in april and december, whereas potential evapo-transpiration greatly exceeds rainfall from june through august (the southern hemisphere winter months). source instituto nacional de meteorologia (inmet) in terms of services, the city has a reasonably clean and reliable water supply that is piped in from rivers in the state of minas gerais to the north. over 84 per cent of the population is supplied with water. eighty-three per cent have their own sanitary installations. ninety-four per cent of the population has access to electricity supply at home. electricity is largely generated by brazil's major hydroelectric facilities, which supply 92 per cent of the country's electricity needs. a drought in 2001 led to electricity shortages throughout the country, and consumers in rio de janeiro were ordered to cut consumption by 20-25 per cent.
Explain the individual level of analysis done by authors?
some authors have proposed and shown that, at the individual level of analysis, relationship conflict mediates the relationship between task conflict and employees' affective reactions. i
What is done in the present study?
 in the present study, we tested this mediation hypothesis at the team level of analysis. furthermore, considering that research on the boundary conditions that constrain the relationship between task and relationship conflict has been scarce, we investigated the role of team members' interaction as a potential mediator of that relationship
How could the obtained result supports?
the results obtained in this study clearly supported the mediation hypotheses (hypothesis 1 and 2), so that relationship conflict fully mediates the relationship between task conflict and teams' affective climate. this result is coherent with other studies carried out at the individual level
to date, research on the relationship between team conflict and shared affect in teams has been scarce, and there is a lack of clarity about the roles played by task and relationship conflict. some authors have proposed and shown that, at the individual level of analysis, relationship conflict mediates the relationship between task conflict and employees' affective reactions. in the present study, we tested this mediation hypothesis at the team level of analysis. furthermore, considering that research on the boundary conditions that constrain the relationship between task and relationship conflict has been scarce, we investigated the role of team members' interaction as a potential mediator of that relationship. the results obtained in this study clearly supported the mediation hypotheses (hypothesis 1 and 2), so that relationship conflict fully mediates the relationship between task conflict and teams' affective climate. this result is coherent with other studies carried out at the individual level. these studies supported the mediator role of relationship conflict in the relationship between task conflict and stress (friedman et al. 2000), employee satisfaction, psychological well-being and job tension (medina et al. 2005). taken together, the results found both at the individual and team levels of analysis suggest a multi-level homologous model of the relationships between both types of conflict and affective responses, which should be tested in future studies. as we mentioned before, the results reported by previous research carried out at the individual level on the influence of task conflict on employees' affective responses are contradictory. one contribution of our study is that it sheds light on this issue, but at the team level of analysis. our results clearly show that team task conflict is not directly related to affective climate; this relationship is fully mediated by relationship conflict. another contribution of our study is that it shows that the two types of conflict are not reciprocally related. the analysis of our longitudinal data clearly showed that task conflict is an antecedent of relationship conflict. this finding is congruent with the idea that task conflict triggers relationship conflict through a process of biased information processing (amason, 1996; amason sapienza, 1997; eisenhardt bourgeois, 1988; jehn, 1997). our results also support the moderating role of team members' interaction about team issues in the relationships between the two types of intra-team conflict, and they show that team members' interaction weakens this relationship (hypothesis 3). these findings support the idea that in teams in which there is a high level of interaction among team members about team issues, task-related disagreements can be constructively handled, and the differing perspectives that team members may have can be clarified. these processes keep task conflict from escalating into relationship conflict. likewise, our results point in the same direction as yang and mossholder's (2004) proposal, supporting the idea that the presence of positive interactions within the team would decrease the relationship between task and relationship conflict.
What are the 2 critical hypotheses that form the foundation of most biogeographic modeling?
1) the assumption of stationarity or niche conservatism in space and time (predictions made on the basis of one location and time will be valid in other geographic regions at other times; conservation of mechanism and no change in the fundamental niche), and (2) the assumption that the same mechanisms that limit the distribution of a species in one geographic locale or epoch are the limiting mechanisms in all other parts of the species' geographic range or all other epochs
What do a number of indicators appear to be correlated with?
large tem values such as observation of reproductive failure or demographic storage effects near range boundaries and relatively shallow decay slopes toward ctmax. again, those metrics yield predictions of the likelihood of failure of biogeographic model
What does analysis indicate when TEM is large?
that it is essential to understand both the mechanisms responsible for biogeographic distribution and the geographic distribution of those mechanisms
two critical hypotheses form the foundation of most biogeographic modeling: (1) the assumption of stationarity or niche conservatism in space and time (predictions made on the basis of one location and time will be valid in other geographic regions at other times; conservation of mechanism and no change in the fundamental niche), and (2) the assumption that the same mechanisms that limit the distribution of a species in one geographic locale or epoch are the limiting mechanisms in all other parts of the species' geographic range or all other epochs. these hypotheses are the underlying assumptions of all correlative nichebased and most mechanism-based models of geographic distribution of species. if they are falsified, we will need fundamentally new approaches to forecasting biogeographic responses to climate change. our initial results and analysis call into question the assumptions of stationarity or conservation of limiting mechanism, but only if tem is large relative to the scale of environmental variation (tables 1 - 3). when tem is large, our analysis indicates that it is essential to understand both the mechanisms responsible for biogeographic distribution and the geographic distribution of those mechanisms (see fig. 3). understanding such mechanisms may be particularly critical and daunting because climate change will likely expose populations to novel conditions, and because variability in environmental drivers is expected to increase. however, if our analysis is correct, then the size of tem allows one to estimate the likelihood of such failure. a number of indicators appear to be correlated with large tem values such as observation of reproductive failure or demographic storage effects near range boundaries and relatively shallow decay slopes toward ctmax. again, those metrics yield predictions of the likelihood of failure of biogeographic model
What is the subject addressed in the text?
climate change
What the article provides the reader?
psychological dimensions of climate change within the broader context of human dimensions of climate change by addressing (a) human causes of, consequences of, and responses (adaptation and mitigation) to climate change and (b) the links between these aspects of climate change and cognitive, affective, motivational, interpersonal, and organizational responses and processes
What does the article most highlight?
characteristics of psychology that cross content domains and that make the field well suited for providing an understanding of climate change and addressing its challenges
janet k. swim pennsylvania state university paul c. stern national research council thomas j. doherty lewis clark graduate school of education and counseling susan clayton college of wooster joseph p. reser griffith university elke u. weber columbia university robert gifford university of victoria george s. howard university of notre dame global climate change poses one of the greatest challenges facing humanity in this century. this article, which introduces the american psychologist special issue on global climate change, follows from the report of the american psychological association task force on the interface between psychology and global climate change. in this article, we place psychological dimensions of climate change within the broader context of human dimensions of climate change by addressing (a) human causes of, consequences of, and responses (adaptation and mitigation) to climate change and (b) the links between these aspects of climate change and cognitive, affective, motivational, interpersonal, and organizational responses and processes. characteristics of psychology that cross content domains and that make the field well suited for providing an understanding of climate change and addressing its challenges are highlighted. we also consider ethical imperatives for psychologists' involvement and provide suggestions for ways to increase psychologists' contribution to the science of climate change. keywords: climate change, interdisciplinary research, human-environment relations, sustainability, psychological dimensions
resulting in the displacement of thousands?
in rare cases, millions of people
shrinking glaciers provide a one-time "dividend" of water release to downstream regions.21 as the storage capacity of glaciers is lost, flooding risks increase in the medium term. this can affect rural agriculture and urban areas located in river deltas. once the glacier disappears, it no longer releases water during the summer months. the disappearance of glaciers implies decreased water supply and untimely flows--that is, coming in the wrong (non-cropping) season. the only alternative for seasonal water storage are dams, which are costly to construct and can have significant environmental and social impacts, resulting in the displacement of thousands or, in rare cases, millions of people.22
Which countries do environmental groups claim are responsible for global warming?
developed countries with high per capita greenhouse gas emissions are responsible for global warming
What are some of the emission reduction targets based on?
present or recent emission levels
What does the sovereignty rule imply?
a country whose greenhouse gas emissions amount to x% of the global greenhouse gas emissions should get x% of the global entitlements for greenhouse gas emissions
the nature of the climate change problem allows decomposing policy decisions into those on the climate target (i.e., the aggregate greenhouse gas emission reductions) and those on the distribution of cost burdens which is crucial in evaluating the equity consequences of any given proposal. while the strength of the climate target is certainly a major criterion for the acceptability of any future international climate agreement, negotiations in the past centered to a large extent around questions on how the burdens of some global abatement effort should be distributed. for example, developing countries as well as environmental interest groups in industrialized countries claim that developed countries with high per capita greenhouse gas emissions are responsible for global warming and must take the lead in combating climate change. as a consequence, weaker obligations or complete exemptions of developing countries from emission reduction targets can be based on equity arguments. another dimension of equity issues is concerned with a fair distribution of burdens among countries with comparable per capita gdp and industry structure. here, often similar reduction targets are seen as fair: some proposals during the international climate negotiations allocated emission reduction targets based on present or recent emission levels (raymond, 2003). several studies identify different typologies of equity principles. rose et al. (1998) distinguish allocation-based, outcome-based, and process-based criteria. in this paper we concentrate on allocationand outcome-based criteria. recognizing that most of the criteria can be further specified and thereby subdivided, we follow ringius et al. (2002) in that we concentrate on main equity principles which dominate the political and the academic debate on international climate policy: * the egalitarian rule: this rule incorporates the principle of equal per capita emissions. it implies that a country whose population amounts to x% of the global population should get x% of the global entitlements for greenhouse gas emissions. * the sovereignty rule: this rule incorporates the principle of equal percentage reduction of current emissions. it implies that a country whose greenhouse gas emissions amount to x% of the global greenhouse gas emissions should get x% of the global entitlements for greenhouse gas emissions. * the polluter-pays rule: this rule incorporates the principle of equal ratio between abatement costs and emissions. it implies that a country whose greenhouse gas emissions amount to x% of the global emissions should bear x% of the global abatement costs for reductions of greenhouse gas emissions.
What are the results?
our results are largely consistent with published investigations in single locations or countries, although previous findings have often been limited to heat-related mortality and are dependent on the choice of location, scenarios, and modelling approaches.6-13 in particular, the variety of analytical designs, with alternative effect summaries, statistical modelling, and assumptions, makes it difficult to quantitatively compare results and to draw a comprehensive picture of the global impact of climate change directly attributable to changes in non-optimal temperature exposure
What is a comprehensive picture?
our results are largely consistent with published investigations in single locations or countries, although previous findings have often been limited to heat-related mortality and are dependent on the choice of location, scenarios, and modelling approaches.6-13 in particular, the variety of analytical designs, with alternative effect summaries, statistical modelling, and assumptions, makes it difficult to quantitatively compare results and to draw a comprehensive picture of the global impact of climate change directly attributable to changes in non-optimal temperature exposure
What is the previous findings?
our results are largely consistent with published investigations in single locations or countries, although previous findings have often been limited to heat-related mortality and are dependent on the choice of location, scenarios, and modelling approaches.6-13 in particular, the variety of analytical designs, with alternative effect summaries, statistical modelling, and assumptions, makes it difficult to quantitatively compare results and to draw a comprehensive picture of the global impact of climate change directly attributable to changes in non-optimal temperature exposure
our results are largely consistent with published investigations in single locations or countries, although previous findings have often been limited to heat-related mortality and are dependent on the choice of location, scenarios, and modelling approaches.6-13 in particular, the variety of analytical designs, with alternative effect summaries, statistical modelling, and assumptions, makes it difficult to quantitatively compare results and to draw a comprehensive picture of the global impact of climate change directly attributable to changes in non-optimal temperature exposure. by contrast, our assessment applies an advanced and well tested statistical framework across various regions and climates, accounting for location-specific non-linear and lagged temperature-mortality relationships,22 and provides a consistent overview of geographical and temporal differences. some assumptions and limitations must be acknowledged. our projections of current estimates of temperature-mortality associations under future warming scenarios allow isolation of the effects of the changing climate, but ignore contributions from other factors, including demographic changes and adaptation (see appendix).23-26 the reported figures should therefore be interpreted as potential impacts under well defined but hypothetical scenarios, and not as predictions of future excess mortality. we did not choose locations and countries following a sampling procedure that ensured representativeness for each region, and as mentioned above, this study does not provide evidence for large areas of the world owing to insufficient data. estimates are also affected by considerable uncertainty, particularly those related to the net impact, due to both variability in the climate models and imprecision in the estimated exposure-response curves.15 the latter component is often larger, and mainly related to uncertainty in extrapolation of the functions beyond the observed temperature range. in relation to this point, the log-linear extrapolation applied here can be inadequate to pick potential non-linear increases in risk due to particularly intense heat events that might occur in the future, and this would result in an underestimation of heat-related excess deaths.
Describe selection analysis?
although some leaf traits included in the selection analysis were significantly correlated, the correlation coefficients among these traits were mostly statistically nonsignificant (table 4
How  percent leaf N and 13C  were related?
interestingly, percent leaf n and 13c were not positively related, as one might expect if higher n translates into greater assimilation rate per unit of water loss (table 4
Explain the differential indications?
selection differentials indicated that when european h. perforatum populations were grown in washington, there was strong directional selection for lower 13c values (and thus wue) and percent leaf n (and percent leaf c when size was used to estimate fitness), as indicated by significant selection differentials for these traits (table 5
although some leaf traits included in the selection analysis were significantly correlated, the correlation coefficients among these traits were mostly statistically nonsignificant (table 4). interestingly, percent leaf n and 13c were not positively related, as one might expect if higher n translates into greater assimilation rate per unit of water loss (table 4). selection differentials indicated that when european h. perforatum populations were grown in washington, there was strong directional selection for lower 13c values (and thus wue) and percent leaf n (and percent leaf c when size was used to estimate fitness), as indicated by significant selection differentials for these traits (table 5). native plants with more negative 13c values and higher levels of percent leaf n were larger and more fecund than plants with less negative 13c values and lower levels of percent leaf n. the directional selection gradient on 13c was statistically significant (when size was used
Explain large number of native species?
first, although we consider 260 to be a large number of native species with commercial range limits further north than their natural range limits, these species represent a relatively small proportion of the european flora
Define effects of climate?
the effects of climate change on range sizes and abundances will likely vary tremendously across species. likewise, horticulture will not assist the migration of all native european plant species equally
Define novel climatic conditions arise?
at the same time, some of the many exotic species that are not currently problematic to people, and that are sold in nurseries, may well begin to spread into natural habitats as novel climatic conditions arise (walther et al 2002
with interacting species migrating at potentially different rates and along somewhat different paths (parmesan 2006), and with novel combinations of climatic conditions arising on some parts of the earth (williams et al 2007), the effects of climate change on range sizes and abundances will likely vary tremendously across species. likewise, horticulture will not assist the migration of all native european plant species equally. first, although we consider 260 to be a large number of native species with commercial range limits further north than their natural range limits, these species represent a relatively small proportion of the european flora. second, we found significant differences in the frequencies of species in different plant families - for example, an overrepresentation of species in the mint (lamiaceae), buttercup (ranunculaceae), and rose (rosaceae) families. thus, horticulture may cause the future native flora of northern europe to be biased towards "desired" species in particular plant families. at the same time, some of the many exotic species that are not currently problematic to people, and that are sold in nurseries, may well begin to spread into natural habitats as novel climatic conditions arise (walther et al 2002).
What is the pacific a driver of?
the pacific is a driver of global climate
Which ocean has the highest correlation with global temperature?
the indian ocean has the highest correlation with global temperature
What temperature range was used at the beginning of modern measurements?
at the beginning of modern measurements (late nineteenth century) must have been within the holocene temperature range
emergence of human-caused global warming raises the question: what level of further warming will be 'dangerous' for humanity? as discussed elsewhere hansen et al 2006 a b ), it may be useful in considering this issue to contrast today's climate with the warmest interglacial periods and with the middle pliocene, when global temperature was 2-3 8 c warmer than today. antarctic temperature was a few degrees warmer in the warmest interglacial periods, but temperature there is magnified by high latitude feedbacks and dependent upon the altitude of the ice surface. the tropical pacific and indian oceans are especially relevant: the pacific is a driver of global climate, and the indian ocean has the highest correlation with global temperature in the period of instrumental data hansen et al 2006 a ). figure 4 compares instrumental temperatures and palaeo-proxy temperatures in those two regions. there is an uncertainty of approximately 1 8 c in the calibration of palaeoproxy temperature with modern data. however, ocean surface temperature at the beginning of modern measurements (late nineteenth century) must have been within the holocene temperature range, so the error in matching up the two scales in figure 4 should not exceed several tenths of a degree celsius. 1935 climate change and trace gases
What have many researches commented on?
many researchers have commented on the similarities between the fauna of the antarctic continental shelf and typical deep-sea (bathyal to abyssal) communities
What consequence is there of the unusual depth of the Antarctic continental shelf?
the unusual depth of the antarctic continental shelf means that many taxa, elsewhere considered to be typical of shallow shelves, are living at depths traditionally regarded as bathyal
What is curious about organisms in the Southern Ocean shelves?
on the deeper parts of the southern ocean shelves, organisms require physiological adaptations to pressure that parallel those found in truly deep-sea
many researchers have commented on the similarities between the fauna of the antarctic continental shelf and typical deep-sea (bathyal to abyssal) communities. two aspects in particular have attracted attention. the first is the importance of echinoderms in the fauna, and the second is the evolutionary connection between the faunas of the antarctic continental shelf and the adjacent deep sea. the unusual depth of the antarctic continental shelf means that many taxa, elsewhere considered to be typical of shallow shelves, are living at depths traditionally regarded as bathyal. on the deeper parts of the southern ocean shelves, organisms require physiological adaptations to pressure that parallel those found in truly deep-sea
Explain effect of more intense spring?
the effect of more intense spring snowmelt remains, but the reduction of glaciation extent affects summer runoff negatively
Define Reducing glaciation area?
reducing glaciation area to 50% of the 1960 extent, which means bringing down basin glaciation from 7% to 3.5% has no further effect on runoff for april and may, but lowers june runoff to levels similar to may
reducing glaciation area to 50% of the 1960 extent, which means bringing down basin glaciation from 7% to 3.5% has no further effect on runoff for april and may, but lowers june runoff to levels similar to may. runoff for july to september is reduced to levels below those of the runoff curve for current climate, with the greatest effect occuring in august. the effect of more intense spring snowmelt remains, but the reduction of glaciation extent affects summer runoff negatively. with no glaciation remaining, runoff for june to september is reduced further, showing that even at a basin glaciation of 3-4%, icemelt generated by the oez model makes a significant contribution to summer runoff. without glaciers, runoff peaks in may, and runoff deficit relative to current conditions is greatest in july and august. fig. 4 illustrates runoff scenarios in the ala archa basin. the 2 x co2 scenario with the 1960 glaciation shows significantly higher runoff levels for june to september than the calibration hydrograph. peak runoff shifts from july to august and is roughly doubled, which is the expected effect of the intensified snowand icemelt.
In the majority of  thermoelectric power plants using freshwater cooling, what is the source of the cooling water?
for the power plants using freshwater, the largest part (95.5%) uses river water and a small part uses cooling lakes or ponds (4.1%) or groundwater (0.4
What type of cooling (air, sea water, fresh water, etc.) is used for the majority of thermoelectric power plants?
based on all thermoelectric power plants for which the cooling system is reported we found that 7.9% use dry (air) cooling, 21.9% use sea water cooling and the remaining 70.2% use fresh water resources for cooling
In the study, what percentage of the total thermoelectric power installed capacity (as reported by EIA20) is supplied by river water-cooled power plants?
these thermoelectric power plants together contribute 28% of the total thermoelectric power installed capacity as reported by eia20
our study focusses on conventional hydropower plants and for thermoelectric power we selected plants based on the following criteria: availability of information on cooling system type, source of fuel and installed capacity, and use of river water as the source for cooling. information on cooling system type was reported by weppd for only a selection of thermoelectric power plants (38%). based on all thermoelectric power plants for which the cooling system is reported we found that 7.9% use dry (air) cooling, 21.9% use sea water cooling and the remaining 70.2% use fresh water resources for cooling. for the power plants using freshwater, the largest part (95.5%) uses river water and a small part uses cooling lakes or ponds (4.1%) or groundwater (0.4%). in our study we focused on 1,427 thermoelectric power plants using river water for cooling and these account for 67.0% of the thermoelectric power plants for which cooling system type is reported in weppd. these thermoelectric power plants together contribute 28% of the total thermoelectric power installed capacity as reported by eia20. the spatial (geographic) distribution of the selected thermoelectric power plants over continents is comparable with the distribution of all thermoelectric power plants
How will climate change affect the incidence of ciguatera fish poisoning?
for example, the projected 4.5degf to 6.3degf increase in sea surface temperature in the caribbean over the coming century is expected to increase the incidence of ciguatera fish poisoning by 200% to 400
What will soon cause the seasonal window of growth for Alexandrium to increase in the Puget Sound?
in puget sound, warming is projected to increase the seasonal window of growth for alexandrium by approximately 30 days by 2040, allowing blooms to begin earlier in the year and persist for longer
How will climate change likely affect the sea surface temperature of the Caribbean over the coming century?
for example, the projected 4.5degf to 6.3degf increase in sea surface temperature in the caribbean over the coming century
climate change, especially continued warming, will dramatically increase the burden of some marine hab-related diseases in some parts of the united states, with strong implications for disease surveillance and public health preparedness. for example, the projected 4.5degf to 6.3degf increase in sea surface temperature in the caribbean over the coming century is expected to increase the incidence of ciguatera fish poisoning by 200% to 400%.171 in puget sound, warming is projected to increase the seasonal window of growth for alexandrium by approximately 30 days by 2040, allowing blooms to begin earlier in the year and persist for longer.177, 190, 198
Michael describes the environment?
cynthia carey1* and michael a. alexander2 1department of environmental, population and organismic biology, university of colorado, boulder, co 80309-0334, u.s.a., e-mail: careyc@spot.colorado.edu and 2climate diagnostics center, national oceanic and atmospheric administration-cooperative institute for research in environmental sciences, mail code r/cdc1, 325 broadway, boulder, co 80305-3328, u.s.a. global climates have been changing, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, throughout the evolutionary history of amphibians
Tell the climate of the decline of the Ambipian population?
therefore, existing amphibian species have been derived from those that have survived major climatic disturbances. although recent global climate change has resulted in warming in many regions, temperatures in some areas to date have not changed measurably, or have even cooled
Describe an indirect role of climate in infectious diseases?
 declines of some amphibian populations have been correlated with climate events, but demonstrations of direct causal relationships need further research. data are available indicating some indirect effect of climate change on the initiation of breeding activities of some amphibians that occur earlier than in previous springs, but the costs and benefits of these changes are just beginning to be investigated. climate may also play an indirect role in facilitating epidemics of infectious disease. regardless of the role that climate changes may have played in past and current amphibian declines, future shifts in climate, should they prove as dramatic as predicted, will certainly pose challenges for surviving amphibian populations and for successful recovery efforts of species that have suffered declines. key words. amphibians, amphibian breeding, amphibian population declines, climate change, el nino
cynthia carey1* and michael a. alexander2 1department of environmental, population and organismic biology, university of colorado, boulder, co 80309-0334, u.s.a., e-mail: careyc@spot.colorado.edu and 2climate diagnostics center, national oceanic and atmospheric administration-cooperative institute for research in environmental sciences, mail code r/cdc1, 325 broadway, boulder, co 80305-3328, u.s.a. global climates have been changing, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, throughout the evolutionary history of amphibians. therefore, existing amphibian species have been derived from those that have survived major climatic disturbances. although recent global climate change has resulted in warming in many regions, temperatures in some areas to date have not changed measurably, or have even cooled. declines of some amphibian populations have been correlated with climate events, but demonstrations of direct causal relationships need further research. data are available indicating some indirect effect of climate change on the initiation of breeding activities of some amphibians that occur earlier than in previous springs, but the costs and benefits of these changes are just beginning to be investigated. climate may also play an indirect role in facilitating epidemics of infectious disease. regardless of the role that climate changes may have played in past and current amphibian declines, future shifts in climate, should they prove as dramatic as predicted, will certainly pose challenges for surviving amphibian populations and for successful recovery efforts of species that have suffered declines. key words. amphibians, amphibian breeding, amphibian population declines, climate change, el nino.
Do the changes mean more of "just the same"?
we contend that it is also prudent to assume that the changes may not only mean just 'more of the same
Is the change in flood distributions assumptions precluded?
there might not be evidence from the low-resolution gcms of coarse regional changes in flood distribution, but we cannot take that assumption too far. it does not preclude the possibility of there being significant geographical changes in flood distribution at a smaller scale
Should rappid climate change be noted?
finally, the increasing attention being given to the possibility of rapid or catastrophic climate change should be noted (hulme, 2003
we contend that it is also prudent to assume that the changes may not only mean just 'more of the same'. there might not be evidence from the low-resolution gcms of coarse regional changes in flood distribution, but we cannot take that assumption too far. it does not preclude the possibility of there being significant geographical changes in flood distribution at a smaller scale - areas not previously affected by flooding that may become newly afflicted as a result of climate change. lack of experience could then become a contributory factor toward vulnerability. finally, the increasing attention being given to the possibility of rapid or catastrophic climate change should be noted (hulme, 2003). though such changes are generally considered of low probability, their implications for future patterns of flood risk from high rainfall and windstorms could be highly significant.
Twitter streams embed and are embedded in what processes?
twitter streams embed and are embedded in gatekeeping processes there are different modes for managing the flow of links and other inputs embedded within a twitter stream
What does management of hashtags provide?
although hashtags are open to all users, such management may become more centralized when streams are populated mainly by one or a few organizations whose members have particular organizational uses in mind, such as rallying demonstrators for a specific event
What results from hashtags dominated by diverse crowds?
by contrast, hashtags that are dominated by diverse crowds may result in chaotic streams with links and directives that seem not to connect with each other. in still other cases, such in-stream crowdsourced gatekeeping can introduce fairly sustained and rich organizational resources in far-flung protest ecologies
twitter streams embed and are embedded in gatekeeping processes there are different modes for managing the flow of links and other inputs embedded within a twitter stream. a stream may allow glimpses of more classic gatekeeping where, for example, the content of a link is removed at source. more important, however, gatekeeping management is also visible within the stream itself in terms of which (and how many) agents introduce particular kinds of links, or amplify cues such as @-ness replies and rt retweets. although hashtags are open to all users, such management may become more centralized when streams are populated mainly by one or a few organizations whose members have particular organizational uses in mind, such as rallying demonstrators for a specific event. by contrast, hashtags that are dominated by diverse crowds may result in chaotic streams with links and directives that seem not to connect with each other. in still other cases, such in-stream crowdsourced gatekeeping can introduce fairly sustained and rich organizational resources in far-flung protest ecologies.
What does the T2x emulator include?
additionally includes cubic terms, thus allowing three-way interactions
t2x emulator, described in section 5, additionally includes cubic terms, thus allowing three-way interactions). prior to fitting, variables were linearly mapped onto the range [-1, 1] so that odd and even functions are orthogonal, improving the selection of terms. stepwise selection was performed using the stepaic function (venables and ripley 2002) in r (r development core team 2004), minimising the akaike information criterion (which attempts to best explain the data with the minimum of free parameters). terms were subsequently removed by applying the more stringent bayes information criterion (which penalises free parameters more strongly). three of our chosen 26 parameters can have no role in the modern state: ol1 (klw1 in equation 1), vpc (describing the co2 fertilisation of photosynthesis and normalised to a modern response at 280ppm) and the dummy variable ffx; the final models were pruned by selecting a significance threshold sufficient to eliminate these three parameters from the emulators and minimise overfitting. in order to investigate the role of individual parameters in determining a plausible modern state, a global sensitivity analysis was performed for each emulator, calculating the contribution of each parameter to the variance of that emulator. for each of the emulators
What level is the framework intended to guide ?
the framework is intended primarily to guide empirical studies especially at a community level
What does the framework highlights about climate change?
the framework highlights climate change as but one stressor among many, and it is intricately interconnected with other biophysical and socioeconomic drivers
What does the framework outlined here demonstrate?
the conceptual framework outlined here demonstrates the elements that the fields of climate change iva, food security, and sustainable livelihoods contribute to an integrated model of the relationships among climate, food, and livelihoods
the conceptual framework outlined here demonstrates the elements that the fields of climate change iva, food security, and sustainable livelihoods contribute to an integrated model of the relationships among climate, food, and livelihoods. many of the components and interrelationships outlined in the framework have been noted (and sometimes analyzed) elsewhere; this conceptualization synthesizes these with a focus on climate change and food security. notably, the framework highlights climate change as but one stressor among many, and it is intricately interconnected with other biophysical and socioeconomic drivers. it recognizes that people's adaptive capacity reflects their access to assets, which in turn are shaped by the multiple drivers. people's potential and ability to undertake adaptation strategies are shaped by their access to natural, social, financial, physical, and human capitals. adaptive strategies are the realization of adaptive capacity, and they take many forms and occur within transformations of sociopolitical and economic structures. adaptation initiatives have consequences (sometimes unintended) for livelihood outcomes and natural resource outcomes. these consequences can feed back positively and/or negatively to the assets and to people's vulnerabilities. several of these features of the framework have already been recognized and acted upon elsewhere, particularly in the development community. for programs seeking to improve the livelihoods of people, reduce poverty, and enhance food security, it makes little sense to address climate change in isolation from the other powerful forces of change. organizations such as the food and agriculture organization, the world bank, and the research program on climate change, agriculture and food security (ccafs) of the consultative group on international agricultural research (cgiar) employ the ''climate-smart agriculture'' framework, which seeks to sustainably increase agricultural production while adapting to climate change and mitigating greenhouse gas emissions (fao 2013 neate 2013 ). such developments are also evident in the most recent ipcc reports, although the clear focus remains on crop yields and production. the framework is intended primarily to guide empirical studies especially at a community level. it is employed here to illustrate how findings from a variety of empirical case studies in sub-saharan africa fit within the framework. improving our understanding of the relationships among climate, food, and livelihoods is more than a scholarly imperative--it is also necessary to help guide practical initiatives, such as policies, programs, and actions (including climate change adaptation), intended to sustain or improve the livelihoods and food security of people in sub-saharan africa as the climate continues to change.
When do experts estimate that sea level will rise 1 meter? Answer: End of the 21st century.
experts predict that the sea levels will rise by about one metre by the end of the twentyfirst century as a result of global warming (ipcc, 2001
Which country should have its agricultural production directly affected by global warming, according to the text? Answer: Vietnam.
this will in time affect the entire hydrology of myriad watercourses, including changes in sediment discharge and shoreline gradients - the very dynamics that form the core of all rice production in viet nam
If the experts' forecasts are fulfilled and the sea rises to the expected level, what will be the commercial solution that countries in the region mentioned, such as the example of Vietnam, should take to maintain their food supply? Answer: Change your import and export trade.
which means that under extreme sea level cases, countries such as viet nam find themselves having to alter their trade from exporters to importers (chen, mccarl and chang, 2012) to maintain food security
experts predict that the sea levels will rise by about one metre by the end of the twentyfirst century as a result of global warming (ipcc, 2001). as heat is trapped, it accumulates in the earth's atmosphere, meaning that water from melting glaciers and polar ice caps will gradually swell the banks of the mekong and red rivers. this will in time affect the entire hydrology of myriad watercourses, including changes in sediment discharge and shoreline gradients - the very dynamics that form the core of all rice production in viet nam. higher sea levels will impede gravitational river discharges and deccelerate tides further inland. more than 50 percent of viet nam's rice production (minh and kawaguchi, 2002) is grown in the mekong delta, with another 17 percent in the red river delta (irri, 2008). in combination with heavy monsoon rainfall, rising sea levels create serious waterlogging and prolonged stagnant floods in major rice-growing, lowlying mega-deltas in southeast asia, for example in the mekong delta and red river delta in viet nam and the irrawaddy in myanmar. rising sea levels may deteriorate rice production in the deltas since only a few low-yielding rice varieties have evolved to withstand such conditions (wassman et al., 2009), which means that under extreme sea level cases, countries such as viet nam find themselves having to alter their trade from exporters to importers (chen, mccarl and chang, 2012) to maintain food security.
What do the simulation results demonstrate the importance of?
our results demonstrate the importance that changes in caco3 cycling can have on projected levels of future atmospheric co2 and climate
What previously unconsidered feedback mechanism leads to reduced carbon uptake in a warmer sea?
a previously unconsidered feedback mechanism between temperatures and calcium carbonate production in the surface ocean strengthens the vertical alkalinity gradient, leading to reduced carbon uptake in a warmer sea
On millennial timescales, what percentage of the total climate-carbon cycle feedback are contributed by changes in the biological pump?
on millennial timescales, however, changes in the biological pump contribute to a large fraction (37%) of the total climate-carbon cycle feedback
our simulations suggest the positive feedback between climate change and the carbon cycle will continue to increase on a multicentennial to millennial timescale and that it may become larger than previous shorter model simulations suggested. a previously unconsidered feedback mechanism between temperatures and calcium carbonate production in the surface ocean strengthens the vertical alkalinity gradient, leading to reduced carbon uptake in a warmer sea. changes in biological carbon cycling in the ocean have negligible impact on atmospheric co2 until about 2600. this suggests that shorter (century-scale) simulations can be carried out without ocean biology. on millennial timescales, however, changes in the biological pump contribute to a large fraction (37%) of the total climate-carbon cycle feedback and need to be taken into account. these estimates need to be taken with caution since they rely on the simulated changes in calcium carbonate production and do not take into account acidification and attendant changes in the carbonate chemistry. our results demonstrate the importance that changes in caco3 cycling can have on projected levels of future atmospheric co2 and climate. improved, process based models of caco3 production and dissolution are urgently needed in order to improve estimates of the effects of anthropogenic co2 emissions on millennial timescales. warming and ventilation changes lead to lower oxygen concentrations and a large increase of denitrification in the water column in our simulations (figure 13c). production rates of nitrous oxide (n2o), an important and potent greenhouse gas increase by 60%. this represents another positive feedback mechanism which we quantify for the first time. we estimate a radiative forcing of 0.32 w/m2
Where were the Mesozooplankton abundance data for all seasons during 1977 e 2003 obtained from?
mesozooplankton abundance data for all seasons during 1977 e 2003 were obtained from a database at the latfra (in total 585 stations
What is the mesh size and opening diameter of the gear?
the gear, having a mesh size of 160 m m and an opening diameter of 0.36 m
From which stations were the subset of data used?
here, we used a subset of data from stations in the gdan'sk deep and the central gotland basin provided in mo"llmann et al. (2003b
mesozooplankton abundance data for all seasons during 1977 e 2003 were obtained from a database at the latfra (in total 585 stations). sampling was conducted in the gdan'sk deep and the gotland basin of the central baltic sea figure 1 ), mainly in february (winter), may (spring), august (summer), and november (autumn) using a juday net unesco press, 1968 ). the gear, having a mesh size of 160 m m and an opening diameter of 0.36 m, is operated vertically and considered quantitatively to catch all copepodite stages as well as adult copepods, whereas nauplii may be underestimated anon., 1979 ). individual hauls were carried out in vertical steps, resulting in a full coverage of the water column to a depth of 100 m on every station. here, we used a subset of data from stations in the gdan'sk deep and the central gotland basin provided in mo"llmann et al. (2003b) for information on sample processing, see mo"llmann et al. (2000)
What does Dr. Brown specialize in?
dr. brown specializes in climate risk management for the water sector and sustainable management of water resources
Where did Dr. Brown obtain his Ph.D?
he obtained his ph.d. in environmental engineering science as a national science foundation fellow at harvard university
What was Dr. Brown's thesis topic?
his thesis topic was sustainable management of groundwater in southern india and included fieldwork in india and nepal
dr. brown specializes in climate risk management for the water sector and sustainable management of water resources. his current work includes developing a climate-resilient water-supply system with seasonal climate forecasts for manila, philippines; drought-risk management for the colombian energy system; and adaptation to climate change in water resources. his research focuses on increasing the resilience of water systems to climate variability and change through the use of advanced climate science, including climate prediction, in combination with innovative water resources management techniques and economic mechanisms, including index insurance. dr. brown teaches the course, managing climate risks and adapting to climate change in columbia's climate and society masters program. he obtained his ph.d. in environmental engineering science as a national science foundation fellow at harvard university. his thesis topic was sustainable management of groundwater in southern india and included fieldwork in india and nepal.
What type of scientist pioneered the study of GEC?
although the study of gec was pioneered by natural scientists
From what year did the International Council for Science cosponsor the International Human Dimensions Programme ?
this is why the international council for science cosponsored the international human dimensions programme from 1996
When was The International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme established?
the international geosphere-biosphere programme (established in 1987
although the study of gec was pioneered by natural scientists, it was recognized early on that the systematic analysis of human actions was as important as understanding their biophysical effects. this is why the international council for science cosponsored the international human dimensions programme from 1996, one of the four key gec research initiatives antecedent to today's future earth endeavour. the international geosphere-biosphere programme (established in 1987) also began projects factoringin human dimensions soon after its creation. these programmes, combined with various national-level and other research initiatives, have both enlarged and filled with content the unduly small box labelled 'human activities' in bretherton's famous diagram of the earth system8. over the years they have put a certain kind of social science flesh on the bones of the now familiar concept of 'coupled human-environment systems' -- particularly through the use of earth observation data, comparative fieldwork and quantitative modelling (evident in the land use and land cover change project running from 1994). coincident with this, the periodic ipcc assessment process has comprised a high-level milieu for interaction between climate scientists and several environmental social scientists. the relevance of global change science to human
Besides seed availability and climatic constraints, what else is mainly controlled by mechanical stress?
besides seed availability and climatic constraints, pine shrub colonization of debris cones is mainly controlled by mechanical stress
How is successful invasion possible?
successful invasion is thus only possible if the site is positioned on a ridge or if there is a neighbouring cell above the focal site that provides shelter as a result of existing dense pine cover
What do the rules described produce?
these rules produce the typical colonization pattern of pine shrubs on debris cones, i.e. propagating downhill in a conical fashion
besides seed availability and climatic constraints, pine shrub colonization of debris cones is mainly controlled by mechanical stress. successful invasion is thus only possible if the site is positioned on a ridge or if there is a neighbouring cell above the focal site that provides shelter as a result of existing dense pine cover. these rules produce the typical colonization pattern of pine shrubs on debris cones, i.e. propagating downhill in a conical fashion. the model starts from the current distribution of pine shrub populations across the landscape. initially, all currently occupied sites are assigned a cover of 100% and an age of 100 years. the model first calculates the fecundity of the population at each site as a function of the age of the individuals and of environmental conditions. sites with populations above a certain threshold of fecundity (see below) are defined as seed sources. next, it determines the number of newly germinating recruits per individual site during one time step. year of germination is chosen randomly. the canopy cover of all individuals at a site increases by a site-specific growth rate independently of age (michiels 1993). the resulting increase in pine shrub cover per site is augmented by vegetative invasion from neighbouring cells. the model proceeds by simulating catastrophic mortality events. a random number generator (0-1, uniform distribution) is used and, for each cell, this number is compared with the site-specific probability of occurrence of such an event. if the number is greater than this probability for a given site, its pine shrub cover is reset to 0%. lastly, the model re-calculates the age of each
What are climate envelope models?
climate envelope' models have emerged as a promising approach for predicting the response of species to ongoing changes in environmental conditions
Why are climate envelope models not always right?
in some cases, climate envelope approaches may fail to accurately predict responses to climate change, because these models neglect other non-climatic processes that can influence species' geographic distributions
What is a recent discussion on envelope models revealing?
recent discussions suggest that an additional limitation of climate envelope models is that they assume that environmental tolerance is homogeneous throughout the geographic range of a species and thus
as evidence of the ecological effects of climate change becomes increasingly apparent (parmesan yohe 2003, parmesan 2006), 'climate envelope' models have emerged as a promising approach for predicting the response of species to ongoing changes in environmental conditions (pearson dawson 2003, guisan thuiller 2005). these models define a species' climate envelope either by correlating its current geographic distribution with contemporary climatic conditions, or by mechanistically determining its ecophysiology in relation to various environmental variables (pearson dawson 2003, hijmans graham 2006). these requirements are then projected onto scenarios of future climate change to predict range expansions, range contractions, and extinction risks (thomas et al. 2004, araujo et al. 2006). in some cases, climate envelope approaches may fail to accurately predict responses to climate change, because these models neglect other non-climatic processes that can influence species' geographic distributions (pearson dawson 2003). recent discussions suggest that an additional limitation of climate envelope models is that they assume that environmental tolerance is homogeneous throughout the geographic range of a species and thus
What is the percentage of the taxa that is threteaned?
in the southwest, up to 92.5% of the taxa are either threatened or ex under the worst-case scenario 1 cc4
What is the percentage that is classified as EX or CR?
and only 6.5% are classified as ex or cr under the climate change scenarios 1 cc1 to 1 cc4
in the southwest, up to 92.5% of the taxa are either threatened or ex under the worst-case scenario 1 cc4), but a few taxa remain in the lr category, and only 6.5% are classified as ex or cr under the climate change scenarios 1 cc1 to 1 cc4). in contrast, 51.1% and 49.2% of the taxa in the northwest and south central remain in the lr category even under the worst-case scenario 1 cc4). moreover, no extinctions occur in these regions, but 4.4% of the taxa in the northwest and 6.6% of the taxa in the south central are listed as cr under the climate change scenarios.
In what analysts are most interested?
analysts are most interested in projections of future adaptation and impact costs
What is relatively easy (in principle) to estimate?
it is relatively easy (in principle) to estimate future adaptation and residual damage costs at the water management system or scheme level
What is the simplest approach?
the simplest approach is first to estimate (over the next few decades) capital and operating costs (over all actors) plus residual damages, in the absence of climate change (but including other changes, such as the effects of changes in demand or exposure), and then repeat the calculations assuming a climate change trend and a management strategy specifically designed to cope with this trend
the previous section highlighted the issues associated with estimating the actual and potential costs of adaptation in the water sector. in principle, the equation above can be used both to characterise the actual (realised) cost of impacts and adaptation in the water sector, and to estimate in advance what these costs may be. in practice, of course, analysts are most interested in projections of future adaptation and impact costs. it is relatively easy (in principle) to estimate future adaptation and residual damage costs at the water management system or scheme level. the simplest approach is first to estimate (over the next few decades) capital and operating costs (over all actors) plus residual damages, in the absence of climate change (but including other changes, such as the effects of changes in demand or exposure), and then repeat the calculations assuming a climate change trend and a management strategy specifically designed to cope with this trend. in circumstances where a development deficit is projected to persist, the reference 'no climate change' case can represent continued inadequate adaptation to climatic variability; alternatively, the reference case can include improvements to meet enhanced standards. the choice does not affect the estimation methodology. this simplest approach assumes perfect knowledge: the water managers know exactly how climate will change, and plan in advance, keeping pace with the changing climate. a variation on this approach assumes 'perfect, but delayed' knowledge, whereby there is a lag between change in climate and the management response, with subsequent rescheduling of adaptation costs but an increase in residual impacts. a more complicated approach recognises that water managers do not know how climate will change, and therefore cannot plan perfectly. one way of addressing this is to assume that a specific adaptation decision is made (perhaps after a lag), and then estimate costs and residual impacts under a range of possible future climates. by assigning likelihoods to these possible climate outcomes,2 it is then possible to estimate the expected costs and impacts under the defined
What is the name of person quoted?
tjalling koopmans
What did they give their analysis on?
discounting in growth theory
What source is referenced early in the text?
the review
although i find the ethical reasoning on discount rates in the review largely irrelevant for the actual investments and negotiations about climate change, it is worth considering the arguments on their own merits. at the outset, we should recall the warning that tjalling koopmans gave in his pathbreaking analysis of discounting in growth theory. he wrote, "[t]he problem of optimal growth is too complicated, or at least too unfamiliar, for one to feel comfortable in making an entirely a priori choice of [a time discount rate] before one knows the implications of alternative choices."18 this conclusion applies with even greater force in global warming models, which have much greater complexity than the simple, deterministic, stationary, twoinput models that koopmans analyzed.
Did they argue that 1 is low?
finally, let us turn to e some have argued (e.g. dasgupta, 2006) that e 1 is too low
Is this an ethical parameter?
this is an ethical parameter and as such it is important to look at alternatives - as we did in the postscript to the review
What is an appropriate range?
what is an appropriate range
finally, let us turn to e some have argued (e.g. dasgupta, 2006) that e 1 is too low. this is an ethical parameter and as such it is important to look at alternatives - as we did in the postscript to the review. what is an appropriate range? many cost-benefit analyses essentially use e 0: i.e. they weight an extra dollar to all individuals in the same way. this is problematic over an infinite horizon (see the appendix to chapter 2 of the review). on the other hand, e 2 implies a degree of aversion to inequality, and consequently a preference for redistribution, that seems inconsistent with many decisions taken today (also see sterner and persson [citation]). let's conduct a simple 'leaky bucket' experiment. the question is, in redistributing income from a rich individual to a poor individual, how much would we be
What do these variables reflect?
these variables reflect a wide range of physical, chemical, and biological responses to climate
How can extraction of climate signals be?
the extraction of climate signals can be further complicated by the influence of other environmental changes
Why are lakes effective sentinels for climate change?
lakes are effective sentinels for climate change because they are sensitive to climate, respond rapidly to change, and integrate information about changes in the catchment
while there is a general sense that lakes can act as sentinels of climate change, their efficacy has not been thoroughly analyzed. we identified the key response variables within a lake that act as indicators of the effects of climate change on both the lake and the catchment. these variables reflect a wide range of physical, chemical, and biological responses to climate. however, the efficacy of the different indicators is affected by regional response to climate change, characteristics of the catchment, and lake mixing regimes. thus, particular indicators or combinations of indicators are more effective for different lake types and geographic regions. the extraction of climate signals can be further complicated by the influence of other environmental changes, such as eutrophication or acidification, and the equivalent reverse phenomena, in addition to other land-use influences. in many cases, however, confounding factors can be addressed through analytical tools such as detrending or filtering. lakes are effective sentinels for climate change because they are sensitive to climate, respond rapidly to change, and integrate information about changes in the catchment.
What is the Differences between the three scenarios?
differences between the three scenarios can be adequately explained by differences in the meteorological data upon which they are based
Define "HBV hot" ?
e "hbv hot" reference year's precipitation sum is very similar to the means which form the input for the oez scenario
Explain About "HBV cool" ?
the "hbv cool" year's winter precipitation is similar to the mean used by the oez, but precipitation from may to september is higher by 55%, in june by as much as 190
differences between the three scenarios can be adequately explained by differences in the meteorological data upon which they are based. the "hbv hot" reference year's precipitation sum is very similar to the means which form the input for the oez scenario. the "hbv cool" year's winter precipitation is similar to the mean used by the oez, but precipitation from may to september is higher by 55%, in june by as much as 190%. the similarity between the oez and the "hbv hot" scenario curves and their reference meteorological data suggests that the "hbv hot" scenario is much more representative of the mean around which future runoff scenarios can be expected to cluster. it is not, therefore, close to representing the one extreme in the possible range of future changes. scenario "2 x co2, 50% glaciation" at ala archa: in most months, the oez hydrograph lies between the hbv curves (fig. 7). differences between the three runoff scenarios can be explained by comparing the meteorological model input. differences for may appear to be temperature-driven, whereas for june higher precipitation levels of the reference month
what are the methods widely adopted in the climate model evaluation and projection literature?
the use of metrics, skill measures, model ranking and even model weighting are starting to be more widely adopted in the climate model evaluation and projection literature
what are surface fluxes?
it could be argued that surface fluxes are the processes that determine the spatial variations in surface air temperature change, so they should be used in a process-based metric of surface air temperature changes
Why the concept of the emergent constraint is appealing?
the concept of the emergent constraint is appealing because of the clear physical interpretation
the use of metrics, skill measures, model ranking and even model weighting are starting to be more widely adopted in the climate model evaluation and projection literature. this is fine when such quantitative approaches are used as a guide to future model development or as a guide to the validity of some physical understanding derived from models, although care should be taken to fully understand why that metric is a useful measure. where metrics are used in projections, it is not safe to assume that a weighted distribution of models is superior to an unweighted distribution without demonstrating that the metric does relate, in some physically plausible way, to the projection variable of interest, and without testing the underlying assumptions40. there is growing use in the community of terms such as process-based metric and process-based evaluation, yet it is not possible to find a formal definition of process-based in the literature. it could be argued that surface fluxes are the processes that determine the spatial variations in surface air temperature change, so they should be used in a process-based metric of surface air temperature changes. but clouds have a leading-order impact on surface radiation, so should cloud effects be defined as the process? it is unclear. perhaps 'process' implies rates of change of one variable with respect to another -- under climate change or under forced or free variations on shorter timescales29. is the warming attributable to greenhouse gases process-based? a better characterization of the concept is required. the concept of the emergent constraint is appealing because of the clear physical interpretation. however the implementation may be challenging as we have yet to produce a generic mathematical algorithm or recipe that can be used in other cases in which all the assumptions are revealed and all sources of uncertainty are considered. perhaps the approach might be extended to account for nonlinearities or even assess the impact of inadequacies that are common to all models. it is recommended that work is undertaken on both the theoretical underpinning and numerical implementation of the approach, so that it can be applied more widely. if the behaviour of the complex models can be reproduced by fitting the parameters of a simple or intermediate models (physical or empirical) to the complex model output, then it is possible to use observations to constrain the smaller set of parameters from larger ensembles of the simple/intermediate model. we might consider this a form of 'process-based emulation', without being at all rigorous about the definition of such a term. intermediate models exist for even quite complex phenomena such as the el nino/southern oscillation41,42. they have generally been used to understand models and the real world, but could also be applied to the projection problem. to conclude, it is possible to produce quantitative projections of climate change, combining models of varying complexity and observations, expressed in terms of probabilities that measure our current uncertainty in those projections. of course, our knowledge, as embodied in models and observations, may improve in time and thus we might be able to reduce those uncertainties. however, the possibility that new models, new observations or new theoretical research might alter the current set of projections considerably cannot be ruled out. for example, new feedbacks may be discovered or resolution thresholds are crossed so that previously parameterized process are directly resolved in models.
What did Cook Cole report?
cook cole (1991) reported that eastern hemlock tsuga canadensis l.) was positively correlated to march temperatures throughout its range in eastern northern america
What are the reasons for the inconsistency?
the inconsistency might be due to the following reasons: (1) these southern deciduous stands were less sensitive to climate, (2) insect outbreaks might reduce or affect their sensitivity to climate, (3) insect outbreak noise might still remain in the residual chronologies of these deciduous stands, and (4) these stands were influenced by the local climate and/or other factors such as species competition
How many species showed common climate signals according to the PCI?
the pci reflected that there were common climate signals across four species from south to north
the partitioning of the variance in the pca indicated that all species responded to some common environmental signals. the pci reflected that there were common climate signals across four species from south to north. higher loadings at northern latitudes suggested that all species in the north were reacting to the same climate factors, whereas low loadings in the south reflected that either all species were reacting to different climate factors or that they were less climate-sensitive in the south. of the four species, both black spruce and jack pine contained a similar number of common climate signals across most of the latitudes, suggesting that these species responded to climate similarly from south to north. this is consistent with previous largespatial-scale studies of tree species across their distributional range. for example, cook cole (1991) reported that eastern hemlock tsuga canadensis l.) was positively correlated to march temperatures throughout its range in eastern northern america. frank esper (2005) also reported that picea abies (l.) h. karst., larix decidua mill., and pinus cembra l. tend to show most similar responses to climate across their wide distribution in the european alps. however, the reactions of both trembling aspen and paper birch to climate were more similar to the conifers in the north than in the south, as indicated by significant increasing loadings of their site chronologies on the pci toward northern latitudes. this is inconsistent with the above-cited studies that reported similar growth response to climate across a large-spatial scale for the studied species. the inconsistency might be due to the following reasons: (1) these southern deciduous stands were less sensitive to climate, (2) insect outbreaks might reduce or affect their sensitivity to climate, (3) insect outbreak noise might still remain in the residual chronologies of these deciduous stands, and (4) these stands were influenced by the local climate and/or other factors such as species competition. in addition to common climate signals shared by all four species along the broad gradient, the variance explained by the pcii-iv suggested some other common climate signals shared within certain species and/or certain studied sites.
What is the assessment of another aspect of the climate of the 2nd century?
another facet of 20th century climate that can be evaluated is the trend in temperature. for the global average, many models simulate a warming rate similar to the 0.6degc increase in global temperature observed in the 20th century
What is a greenhouse?
at the regional scale (figure 4), the warming rate could be dominated by changes in atmospheric circulation rather than greenhouse forcing; nonetheless, eight of the models simulate a warming for 1900-2000 in the northwest within 0.2degc of the observed warming of 0.8degc during the same period, calculated using regionally averaged, area-weighted historical climate network data (mote 2003, updated
When did the global greenhouse rainfall begin?
we do not perform the same comparison for precipitation since there is no evidence for a 20th century response of global precipitation or zonally averaged precipitation at these latitudes (zhang et al. 2007) to greenhouse forcing. the time series of regional precipitation is characterized by high interannual variability, and the direction of linear trends depend on the start and end point, unlike temperature, for which linear trends are robustly upward
another facet of 20th century climate that can be evaluated is the trend in temperature. for the global average, many models simulate a warming rate similar to the 0.6degc increase in global temperature observed in the 20th century. at the regional scale (figure 4), the warming rate could be dominated by changes in atmospheric circulation rather than greenhouse forcing; nonetheless, eight of the models simulate a warming for 1900-2000 in the northwest within 0.2degc of the observed warming of 0.8degc during the same period, calculated using regionally averaged, area-weighted historical climate network data (mote 2003, updated). we do not perform the same comparison for precipitation since there is no evidence for a 20th century response of global precipitation or zonally averaged precipitation at these latitudes (zhang et al. 2007) to greenhouse forcing. the time series of regional precipitation is characterized by high interannual variability, and the direction of linear trends depend on the start and end point, unlike temperature, for which linear trends are robustly upward.
which cylclones have large socioeconomic impact?
extratropical cyclones can have a large socioeconomic impact
what is the important component of mid latitude water cycle?
extratropical cyclones are also an important component of the midlatitude water cycle (hawcroft et al. 2012), providing freshwater for agriculture and society
what is summarized in  The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)?
the fourth assessment report (ar4) of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) summarized that increasing greenhouse gases will lead to ''a poleward shift of storm tracks in both hemispheres that is particularly evident in the sh [southern hemisphere], with greater storm activity at higher latitudes'' (meehl et al. 2007
extratropical cyclones can have a large socioeconomic impact. high winds and extreme precipitation from extratropical cyclones can result in windstorm damage, flooding, and coastal storm surge (lamb 1991; fink et al. 2009; della-marta and pinto 2009). extratropical cyclones are also an important component of the midlatitude water cycle (hawcroft et al. 2012), providing freshwater for agriculture and society. developing our knowledge of how extratropical cyclones might change in a warmer world is critical to understanding how societies may need to adapt to climate change. the fourth assessment report (ar4) of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) summarized that increasing greenhouse gases will lead to ''a poleward shift of storm tracks in both hemispheres that is particularly evident in the sh [southern hemisphere], with greater storm activity at higher latitudes'' (meehl et al. 2007). there is evidence that this simple picture is not a good description of the response of the north atlantic storm track. in winter, climate model simulations show an eastward extension of the storm track associated
What does the sensitivity of a system denote?
the sensitivity of a system denotes the (generally multi-factorial and dynamic) dose - response relationship between its exposure to climatic stimuli and the resulting impacts
What do we mean by sensitivity?
sensitivity: the degree to which a system is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by climate-related stimuli
What do the terms potential impact and residual impact mean?
the terms potential impacts and residual impacts are used to distinguish impact estimates between assessments that do not consider adaptation (i.e., where sensitivity is assumed to be unaffected by climate change) and those that do consider adaptation (see figure 1 for a graphical illustration
the arrow from concentrations to exposure in the diagram indicates that some systems are directly affected by changes in atmospheric composition. well-known examples include the direct effect of carbon dioxide on plant physiology and the combination of local air pollution and high temperatures in causing respiratory diseases in humans. to be exact, the text in the exposure box should thus read "exposure to climatic stimuli and atmospheric trace gases ". sensitivity: the degree to which a system is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by climate-related stimuli. the effect may be direct or indirect impacts: consequences of climate change on natural and human systems. depending on the consideration of adaptation, one can distinguish between potential and residual impacts. the sensitivity of a system denotes the (generally multi-factorial and dynamic) dose - response relationship between its exposure to climatic stimuli and the resulting impacts the terms potential impacts and residual impacts are used to distinguish impact estimates between assessments that do not consider adaptation (i.e., where sensitivity is assumed to be unaffected by climate change) and those that do consider adaptation (see figure 1 for a graphical illustration). the bold borders around the boxes for emissions and concentrations of greenhouse gases and for the level of climate change indicate that these concepts are applicable at the global level. in contrast, the exposure and the sensitivity to climatic stimuli as well as the resulting impacts are only relevant at the level of the systems (or 'exposure units') subject to analysis, which is indicated by the thin borders. it is interesting to note that the ipcc definitions for exposure and impacts are not fully consistent. whereas the former includes all climatic variations, the latter only considers those aspects that are due to climate change climate science does not presently provide tools that can sharply distinguish climate variability according to natural and anthropogenic causes. this distinction, however, is fundamental to internationalclimatepolicy.forexample,onlyadaptationstoanthropogenicclimate change would be eligible for funding through the mechanisms of the unfccc and the kyoto protocol (klein, 2002). impact assessments as understood here and conducted until the early half of the 1990s do not explicitly address adaptation, thereby implementing the 'dumb farmer' assumption (see section 2.3). their use for policy formulation is limited to raising awareness of the potential scale and magnitude of climate change impacts and to longer-term climate impacts where adaptation is difficult. examples include many ecological studies as well as country studies conducted within, for instance, the united states country studies program (uscsp). the research project on climate change, climatic variability and agriculture in europe: an integrated assessment (clivara, downing et al., 2000) also was a classical regional climate impact
Why is the ice-house an obsolete technology in Britain?
because of climate change
What happened in Basra in 2003 when the buildings were too hot to occupy?
riots broke out
Around how many people died in France in 2003 when buildings could not provide enough protection from summer heat?
some 15 000 people died
because of climate change, the ice-house is now a climatically obsolete technology in britain. is this important lesson applicable to other forms of traditional buildings and technologies? what happens to a traditional house type that becomes climatically obsolete? let us investigate this a little further, because if thermal thresholds are important in the performance of, for instance, housing, will a warming climate in already extremely hot regions push indoor temperatures over thresholds of acceptability, and if so, what will be the consequences of that? we saw this in basra in the summer of 2003 when the buildings were too hot to occupy and riots broke out. we saw this in the summer of 2003 in france when some 15 000 people died unnecessarily because their buildings could no longer provide adequate protection from the summer heat, and an angry public caused the resignation of at least one minister in the government. what happens if whole regions become regularly too hot to occupy?
How is the recapture probabilities estimated for females.
 estimates of female recapture probability obtained from the model f (c) p(d /t) are shown with thick solid line for females recaptured at the preceding occasion, and thin solid line for those femaless not recaptured at the preceding occasion
Where are Fig. 2b and 2c's date derived from?
estimates shown in fig. 2b and 2c have been derived from the full data set
What's represented in Fig 2c
estimates of male recapture probability
fig. 2. interannual variation in a) the covariates which were shown to influence recapture probability, b) estimated recapture probabilities for females and c) estimated recapture probabilities for male fulmars. in fig. 2a), variations in breeding success are shown with a solid line and effort is shown using a dashed line. in fig. 2b, estimates of female recapture probability obtained from the model f (c) p(d /t) are shown with thick solid line for females recaptured at the preceding occasion, and thin solid line for those femaless not recaptured at the preceding occasion. estimates from the model f (c) p(d /log(ef) /lbs /bs) are shown with a thick dotted line (those recaptured at the preceding occasion) and a thin dotted line (those individuals not recaptured on the preceding occasion). in fig. 2c, estimates of male recapture probability are based upon model f (t) p(d / t), with thick solid representing males recaptured at the preceding occasion, and thin solid line those not recaptured on the preceding occasion. estimates from the model f (t) p(d /log(ef) /lbs) are presented as a thick dotted line (males recaptured on the preceding occasion) and a thin dotted line (males not recaptured on the preceding occasion). estimates shown in fig. 2b and 2c have been derived from the full data set.
How does climate affect health?
however, most of the health risks will arise from climatic influences on environmental
What are negative impacts of climate change?
systems and social conditions that affect food yields, water supplies, the stability of infectious disease patterns
Are there any cosequences?
including forest cover, windbreaks, mangroves, vulnerable constructed seawalls, and urban waterdrainage systems) and from the adverse health consequences of social disruption, displacement of communities, and conflict situations.18,38
our current, rather skewed knowledge of climate-health relationships has come from epidemiologic studies of health risks in relation to differences and extremes in temperature and from quasicyclical climatic events such as the el nino-southern oscillation phenomenon. however, most of the health risks will arise from climatic influences on environmental systems and social conditions that affect food yields, water supplies, the stability of infectious disease patterns, and the integrity of natural and humanbuilt protection against natural disasters (including forest cover, windbreaks, mangroves, vulnerable constructed seawalls, and urban waterdrainage systems) and from the adverse health consequences of social disruption, displacement of communities, and conflict situations.18,38
What is the main reason that participants did not consider climate change to be personally salient?
most predominantly the perceived distance and remoteness of climate change from one's everyday experience. the majority of participants noted that if climate change were to begin having adverse local and personal impacts, it would become more personally concerning
Why was the online survey not as successful as the focus groups?
because of the lack of interactivity of the online survey, it was not as successful a methodology as the icon focus groups for obtaining participants' personal climate icons, as some participants distanced themselves from the definition of climate icons as entities that were personally engaging and thus suggested icons for others rather than stating their own personal icons
Does this study support indications of the suggestion that fear is a good communicator?
however, this shortcoming did provide some intriguing results that give weight to the "fear is a good communicator--for other people" literature reviewed earlier. in attempting to provide a good "communications tool" rather than an icon that was personally salient, a number of the online survey participants suggested climate icons that they considered a good communications tool for "other people." interestingly, these icons were often fantastical or fear inducing, in contrast to the focus group participants
in the imagery study, while climate change was seen by participants as a generally important issue, it was not something that participants tended to consider personally salient. this was apparently for a whole host of reasons, most predominantly the perceived distance and remoteness of climate change from one's everyday experience. the majority of participants noted that if climate change were to begin having adverse local and personal impacts, it would become more personally concerning. an additional issue in relation to a sense of "otherness" (other people, other places) in relation to climate change arises in the results from the online survey participants in the icon study. because of the lack of interactivity of the online survey, it was not as successful a methodology as the icon focus groups for obtaining participants' personal climate icons, as some participants distanced themselves from the definition of climate icons as entities that were personally engaging and thus suggested icons for others rather than stating their own personal icons. however, this shortcoming did provide some intriguing results that give weight to the "fear is a good communicator--for other people" literature reviewed earlier. in attempting to provide a good "communications tool" rather than an icon that was personally salient, a number of the online survey participants suggested climate icons that they considered a good communications tool for "other people." interestingly, these icons were often fantastical or fear inducing, in contrast to the focus group participants:
What is a potential shortcoming of the UNFCCC study?
the lack of consideration of other aspects of climate change such as more intense storms
here we reflect on the unfccc costs, and learn lessons on how future studies could be improved. the messages are generic and could be applied across most of the published studies on adaptation costs. the costs reported by the unfccc for coastal adaptation appear reasonable as a snapshot cost for 2030 (see nicholls, 2007). the costs are sensitive to the timeframe and sea-level-rise scenarios considered. if we assume that all flood defences anticipate conditions in 100 years, the annual costs in 2030 (assuming the investment occurs over 50 years) could be as high as $13 billion/year. if we assume a sea-level rise following current uk (defra, 2006) or dutch practice (delta commission, 2008), the costs would be raised significantly. based on a high-end sea-level-rise scenario, adaptation costs would be roughly doubled. whatever scenarios are considered, the costs are also likely to grow over the 21st century, following the expected acceleration in sea-level rise. a potential deficiency of the unfccc study is the lack of consideration of other aspects of climate change such as more intense storms. the likelihood of this change is controversial (meehl et al., 2007) but, if it did occur, the necessary adaptation costs (and residual damage costs) would rise substantially. while somewhat speculative, adaptation costs comparable to sea-level rise could occur. when combined with the uncertainties about sea-level rise already discussed, adaptation costs three times greater than those reported in the unfccc study are not implausible. another deficiency is the focus on the incremental adaptation costs, with less consideration of the residual damages, and no consideration of the adaptation deficit. policy-makers need to be aware that, even if they invest the sums suggested in the unfccc study, serious damage could still occur due to the adaptation deficit. it is quite possible that the costs of addressing the adaptation deficit will exceed the costs of climate change as reported in the unfccc study ($11 billion/ year), and this may be necessary to achieve successful adaptation. a key point is that the
Why might using forecasts to manage fisheries be given a low priority?
it is quite possible that using forecasts to manage fisheries would be given a low priority among all sectors, particularly if it turns out to be relatively difficult to use forecast information to achieve societal benefits there
On the social side, I'd understanding private firm decisions in the fisheries sector an unavoidable challenge?
on the social side, understanding private firm decisions in the fisheries sector is an unavoidable challenge, while other sectors may have fewer private firm interests
What kept the loss of life and property damage lower during the 1997-98 event than during the 1982-83 El Nino event?
comparing peruvian sectors for the 1997-98 event, proactive disaster management based on advanced warning appears to have kept the loss of life and property damage lower than during the 1982-83 el nino event (zapata velasco and suiero, 1999; zapata velasco and broad, 2001
fourth, broadening beyond fisheries, policy makers may also need to choose where to focus among sectors. it is quite possible that using forecasts to manage fisheries would be given a low priority among all sectors, particularly if it turns out to be relatively difficult to use forecast information to achieve societal benefits there. the necessary information for fisheries management involves modeling complex ecosystem interactions, a more daunting scientific challenge than, for instance, most stream-flow modeling needed for the water management sector. on the social side, understanding private firm decisions in the fisheries sector is an unavoidable challenge, while other sectors may have fewer private firm interests. there may be more common shared values regarding collective action for disaster prevention and response, despite alleged issues of corruption and political favoritism, while antagonistic groups in the fishery sector may share fewer values. also, many technological fixes in civil defense are relatively straightforward compared to fisheries management. comparing peruvian sectors for the 1997-98 event, proactive disaster management based on advanced warning appears to have kept the loss of life and property damage lower than during the 1982-83 el nino event (zapata velasco and suiero, 1999; zapata velasco and broad, 2001). for the fishery, unprecedented measures by the regulators to protect the anchovy stocks were taken once it was indisputable that a major el nino was underway. nonetheless, provision of forecasts did not prevent: (1) massive labor disruption; (2) increased illegal fishing; and (3) a shortterm biological, as well as apparently lasting economic decline of the industry. again, different sectors face different challenges. nonetheless, our points about a best approach to forecast dissemination choices based on fisheries sector observations seem generally applicable. further, we argue that not only dissemination but also training, research and development choices should be considered in this way. for example, those who generate forecasts must choose whether to focus their research on a long time scale, or on increased temporal and spatial resolution for a short time scale. if short-term profits define benefit, the latter might be preferred, whereas if sustainability is the goal, an improved forecast of long-run stock dynamics might be best. also, for both dissemination and research and development choices, these points should apply to other regions and other sectors as well. other south american and pacific rim countries experience el nino impacts on fishing (see, e.g., lehodey et al., 1997), and other sectors in chile, colombia, ecuador and peru are also directly impacted by climate variability. our points regarding constraints and benefits definition seem likely to be relevant to applications of forecasts to agriculture, disaster prevention, water resource management, and health.
How was the bulk density model developed?
the bulk density model was developed using a training set of 25 668 records of snow depth, density, and swe from three countries and two continents (table 1
What do these data span?
these data span the climate classes of seasonal snow defined by sturm et al. (1995): alpine, maritime, prairie, tundra, taiga, and ephemeral
What are the classes defined by?
the classes are defined by the general physical attributes of a snow cover (depth, density, type of snow layers, etc.), attributes that tend to remain relatively consistent within climate zones
the bulk density model was developed using a training set of 25 668 records of snow depth, density, and swe from three countries and two continents (table 1). these data span the climate classes of seasonal snow defined by sturm et al. (1995): alpine, maritime, prairie, tundra, taiga, and ephemeral. the classes are defined by the general physical attributes of a snow cover (depth, density, type of snow layers, etc.), attributes that tend to remain relatively consistent within climate zones. the set combines research surveys done in canada, switzerland, and alaska by the authors with data from monthly agency surveys done by the nrcs on snow courses in the western united states (fig. 1a). because few systematic measurements have been made in ephemeral snow it had to be excluded from the analysis. the data in the training set tend to be of high quality because a high percentage were taken during research campaigns. at nrcs stations, data are collected on the first of the month starting in november and continuing through may or june each year. the canadian and alaskan data were taken by the authors during over-snow traverses conducted in march and april when conditions were still well below freezing but the snowpack was at nearmaximum depth (table 1). the swiss data were taken at
For what does Hajes use his ideas?
hajer uses ideas of governmentality and discourse to analyse the shifts in international environmental management towards ecological modernisation and market solutions
What does Oels suggest?
this analysis is reinforced by oels who suggests that the governance of climate change has shifted from an environmental issue based on the biopower of data collection and computer modelling to an economic question of neoliberal governmentality through market and technology solutions
What are Demeritt arguments?
demeritt argues that social constructions of climate science in the form of climate models and the 'hockey stick' curve of historical global temperatures have influenced approaches to managing climate change
hajer uses ideas of governmentality and discourse to analyse the shifts in international environmental management towards ecological modernisation and market solutions.5this analysis is reinforced by oels who suggests that the governance of climate change has shifted from an environmental issue based on the biopower of data collection and computer modelling to an economic question of neoliberal governmentality through market and technology solutions.6backstrand examines discourses (shared ideas, concepts, practices) used to discuss climate policy and carbon forestry, and the power of different agents to promote, control and institutionalise them.7she examines the evolution of the debate over tree plantations as carbon sinks in the developing world using three core discursive themes - ecological modernisation with market solutions, green governmentality through scientific expertise, and civic environmentalism through participation and partnerships. demeritt argues that social constructions of climate science in the form of climate models and the 'hockey stick' curve of historical global temperatures have influenced approaches to managing climate change.8bulkeley places climate governance within the 'risk society' and as negotiated through discourse coalitions.9slocum employs feminist science studies to interrogate the representation of climate change by ngos.10
what country  was brought aware to the issue
today, americans are not only aware of global warming
when was everyone finely noticing the climate changes
understanding of it. in 1992
what did the gallup organazation do
interviewed by the gallup organization
today, americans are not only aware of global warming; they are increasingly confident in their understanding of it. in 1992, when asked how well they grasped the concept, 22% of those interviewed by the gallup organization said "not at all" (nisbet 96 american behavioral scientist 57(1) myers, 2007, p. 448). by the spring of 2010, that number had fallen to just 3%.3 after several decades of political debate, public relations campaigns, media attention, and popular culture--where the message of global warming was related through communication campaigns as well as best-selling novels and mass-marketed movies-- most felt that they knew the issue either "fairly well" (56%) or "very well" (26%).4
What rank significantly higher than any other sector for several reasons?
water resources and hydropower rank significantly higher than any other sector for several reasons
What are directly related to rising temperatures that have already been observed?
a number of impacts on water resources and hydropower are directly related to rising temperatures that have already been observed
What is the proof that GLOFs are not hypothetical?
glofs are not hypothetical, as such events have already had significant impacts in nepal, the most significant being the near total destruction of the newly built namche bazaar hydropower facility in 1985
resource/ranking certainty of impact timing of impact (urgency) severity of impact importance of resource water resources and hydropower high high high high agriculture agriculture medium-low medium-low medium high human health low medium uncertain high ecosystems/biodiversity low uncertain uncertain medium-high water resources and hydropower rank significantly higher than any other sector for several reasons. water resources and hydropower rank significantly higher than any other sector for several reasons. first, a number of impacts on water resources and hydropower are directly related to rising temperatures that have already been observed, and are projected (with high confidence) to increase further over the coming decades. this includes glacier retreat that in turn causes greater variability (and eventual reduction) in streamflow, and glacial lake outburst floods that pose significant risk to hydropower facilities, and also to other infrastructure and human settlements. glofs are not hypothetical, as such events have already had significant impacts in nepal, the most significant being the near total destruction of the newly built namche bazaar hydropower facility in 1985. other climate induced risks to water resources and hydropower facilities include: flooding, landslides, and sedimentation from more intense precipitation events (particularly during the monsoon), as well as greater unreliability of dry season flows that poses potentially serious risks to water and energy supplies in the lean season. the significance of water 7 this ranking is focussed primarily on biophysical risks and does not explicitly include a detailed analysis of socioeconomic and demographic factors that might mediate vulnerability, which was beyond the scope of this study. the ranking however is broadly consistent with views expressed by national climate and development experts at a consultative workshop organized in connection with this project.
How are the Metric Calculation Model validation metrics calculated?
metric calculation model validation metrics are calculated using equation (4) of waugh and eyring [2008
Are the analysis concerned with identifying performance of particular models?
again the analysis is not concerned with identifying the performance of any of the models in particular
What type of the approach has been used?
a pragmatic approach has, however, been used
to establish the fidelity and quantify the assessment of the simulations " metrics " representing many of the key stratospheric dynamical processes have been identified (see table 2). the list has some metrics in common with waugh and eyring [2008] but also extends that list particularly in the area of stratospheric variability. a pragmatic approach has, however, been used and for many diagnostics the metrics opted for require the least input of dynamical fields or complex analysis and thus are available for a greater range of models. as in the previous section the aim is to assess the performance of the model ensemble and provide a guide to the overall performance of the models in several key areas. again the analysis is not concerned with identifying the performance of any of the models in particular. because of this, models which did not provide enough data to fully assess a significant proportion of the metrics in table 2 (particularly the cam3.5 and e39ca model) are excluded from this analysis. this minimizes any potential bias between metrics which might result from changing the composition of the multimodel ensemble for each diagnostic. 4.1. metric calculation model validation metrics are calculated using equation (4) of waugh and eyring [2008]:
There could be how many stage process to secure climate resilient development.
there could be a four-stage process to secure climate resilient development
What does Climate resilient development strategies mean
climate resilient development strategies may mean investing in infrastructure, such as dams and sea defences
it is a departure from traditional development, as climate resilient development places emphasis on complexity and uncertainty, and on how society can learn and self-organise to create beneficial and sustainable transformations (box 3). there could be a four-stage process to secure climate resilient development. first, policy makers would assess climate risks and uncertainties. second, they would develop and evaluate measures to address those risks and uncertainties. third, they would prioritise the most effective measures and, finally, integrate them into development strategies. climate resilient development strategies may mean investing in infrastructure, such as dams and sea defences. it is important to consider the relative emissions and potential environmental impacts of different options and prioritise those that do not increase ghg emissions or harm the environment. again, this is important for protecting possible co-benefits of linking adaptation and mitigation strategies (see figure 1).
What is TPCs?
thermal performance curves
Describe the performance of a biological process as a function of temperature?
huey stevenson 1979). processes that are frequently considered include aspects of whole-organism performance--such as rates of locomotion, growth, and feeding--and components of fitness--such as survival, reproductive rate, and generation time figure 2 
Example for maximum temprature performance?
for example, the thermal breadth for assimilation tends to be narrower than that for locomotion
thermal performance curves (tpcs) describe the performance of a biological process as a function of temperature (huey stevenson 1979). processes that are frequently considered include aspects of whole-organism performance--such as rates of locomotion, growth, and feeding--and components of fitness--such as survival, reproductive rate, and generation time figure 2 ). the temperature dependence of performance and fitness is typically unimodal with a single optimal temperature and asymmetric such that performance declines more quickly at temperatures above rather than below the optimum figure 2 ). classically, performance curves are thought to be constrained by trade-offs. for example, generalist-specialist trade-offs sometimes occur in which species or genotypes may either exhibit high performance over a narrow range of temperatures or low performance over a broad range of temperatures (gilchrist 1995, izem kingsolver 2005). however, a "hotter is better" phenomenon, in which maximum performance is greater as optimal temperature increases, has been observed for a variety of organisms (angilletta 2009, kingsolver 2009). the temperature sensitivity of performance and fitness can vary considerably. for example, the thermal breadth for assimilation tends to be narrower than that for locomotion
Which area does the list capture the main dynamical processes for?
this list captures the main dynamical processes in the stratosphere
To estimate the uncertainty, over what period what the data set re-sampled?
the data set was re-sampled for several 10-year periods
Which Figure shows the metric portrait of the models?
figure 4.29 shows the metric portrait of the models
to establish the fi delity and quantify the assessment of the simulation of stratospheric dynamics by the models, "metrics" representing most of the dynamical diagnostics analysed in sections 4.3 and 4.4 have been identi fi ed. the full list of metrics is presented in tables 4.1a and b. the list has some metrics in common with the study of waugh and eyring (2008), but also extends that list, particularly in the area of stratospheric variability. this list captures the main dynamical processes in the stratosphere. a pragmatic approach has, however, been used and for many diagnostics the metric opted for requires the least input of dynamical fi elds or complex analysis. there are a number of cases where diagnostics might be replaced with more dynamically meaningful alternatives if more data from more model runs were available. for example, the diagnostics "shtemp" and "nhtemp" might be replaced by the area of temperatures below psc formation thresholds. metrics are calculated as listed in the table and normalised using equation 4 of waugh and eyring (2008). in order to maintain some consistency with the waugh and eyring analysis, scores are standardized using the standard deviation of the observed quantity in question. for the tropical variability, estimating the uncertainty in the era40 reanalysis is more complex. to estimate the uncertainty, the data set was re-sampled for several 10-year periods, and the range of possible values for the amplitudes of the annual cycle, sao and qbo was used in the metric calculation. an attempt is also made to assess where a model's performance (as assessed by the metric) is different from the observations and different from the multi-model mean. figure 4.29 shows the metric portrait of the models. for each model, every metric is assigned a box on the diagram, and the box is shaded according to model performance. darker colours indicate that a metric is closer to 1,
What tool was used to record Chlorophyll?
pulse-amplitude-modulated photosynthesis yield analyser (pam 2000 and mini-pam; walz, effeltrich, germany) with a leaf clip holder
How many different measurements per plant were averaged?
four measurements per plant were averaged for further analysis
How is the maximum quantum efficiency of photosystem II calculated?
the maximum quantum efficiency of photosystem ii was calculated as fv / fm. variable fluorescence fv) and maximum fluorescence fm) were measured before dawn
chlorophyll a fluorescence in the grass species h. lanatus was recorded using a pulse-amplitude-modulated photosynthesis yield analyser (pam 2000 and mini-pam; walz, effeltrich, germany) with a leaf clip holder. the second or third fully expanded leaves were measured on four different tillers of one individual. four measurements per plant were averaged for further analysis. we obtained predawn fluorescence values at the end of the first drought treatment in may / june and throughout the early recovery period after the second drought. the maximum quantum efficiency of photosystem ii was calculated as fv / fm. variable fluorescence fv) and maximum fluorescence fm) were measured before dawn. variable fluorescence was calculated as fm f0, fm being the maximum fluorescence of the dark-adapted leaf after applying a saturating light pulse and f0 being the steady-state fluorescence yield of the dark-adapted leaf (maxwell johnson 2000). to enable a comparison between absolute fluorescence values, a fluorescence standard material was measured before dawn and calculated as fv / fm fv fm f0) (maxwell johnson 2000). absolute f0 and fm values were taken to separate the effects of photodamage, becoming apparent with an increase of f0, from the effects of photoprotection related to enhanced non-photochemical quenching, becoming apparent with a decrease in fm (walter et al. 2011).
What type of reactors used in waterwaste treatment plants have simplified flowsheets?
wastewater treatment plants using uasb reactors followed by polishing ponds also have a very simplified flowsheet
Are dewatering units typical in smaller plants?
thus, dewatering units using drying beds are also usual in smaller plants
Who implemented the research unit implemented in Figure 29.4?
figure 29.4 illustrates a research unit implemented by the federal university of minas gerais, brazil
wastewater treatment plants using uasb reactors followed by polishing ponds also have a very simplified flowsheet (figure 29.3). besides the preliminary treatment units (screen and grit chamber), the flowsheet comprises the anaerobic treatment unit, the polishing pond (either a single baffled pond or ponds in series) and the dewatering unit for the sludge produced in the uasb reactor. the same considerations made for the uasb reactor anaerobic filter system are valid here in relation to the characteristics of the anaerobic sludge, which is already thickened and stabilised. thus, dewatering units using drying beds are also usual in smaller plants. figure 29.4 illustrates a research unit implemented by the federal university of minas gerais, brazil.
What is one possible uncertainty of visual wave observations?
one possible uncertainty of visual wave observations is the separation between wind wave and swell
Which is highly correlated with local wind: wind waves, or swell?
they found that wind waves are highly correlated with the local wind but swell is not
What information is summarized in Figure 3?
figure 3 summarizes how each data source is used in waswind for different periods
wind wave and swell observations are available in icoads for the whole period of our analysis. the height and period of wind waves and swell have been visually observed in 0.5-m increments and seconds, respectively. one possible uncertainty of visual wave observations is the separation between wind wave and swell. gulev and hasse (1999) examined the validity of the visual separation by comparing the wind wave and swell with wind speed over the north atlantic. they found that wind waves are highly correlated with the local wind but swell is not, concluding that wind wave and swell are well separated in the coads marine reports. in the present study, only wind wave heights with wave period less than 7 s are used to reject possible swells. additionally, the wind wave observations are analyzed only for the two periods from 1950 to 1962 and 1969 to 2008 because of complicated changes in the reporting code around 1963 and 1968. hereafter, wind wave is simply referred to as ''wave'' if not specified. figure 3 summarizes how each data source is used in waswind for different periods. for periods when the estimated and measured winds are omitted, wave observations fill the data gaps in wind reports (fig. 1a). to check whether wave height is a good alternative data source of sea surface wind, we first construct annualmean climatologies of our quality-checked wave height and nocs v2.0 10-m wind speed (fig. 4). the wave height field features quite similar spatial patterns to those of the surface wind, with high waves in the midlatitude
what is the most important component of the overall water balance for this watershed table 3
surface runoff was found to be the most important component of the overall water balance for this watershed
what is the range of the peak flows
the peak flows are in the range of 600 to 4 1000 cubic metres per second
what is the range of the average daily flows
the average daily flows are in the range of 80-120 cumecs
schro"ter et al. (2005) propose a set of five criteria for global change vulnerability assessments to inform adaptation decision making by stakeholders: they should have a knowledge base from various disciplines and stakeholder participation, be place based, consider multiple interacting stresses, examine differential adaptive capacity, and be prospective as well as historical. on the basis of these criteria, they suggest eight methodological steps. fig. 2 outlines the various steps taken and methods used in this study correspond to the schro"ter et al. (2005) framework. the study combined watershed modelling with a participatory approach to investigate vulnerability and adaptive capacity to climate variability and water stress in the lakhwar watershed. water balance modelling for lakhwar watershed was carried out using swat neitsch et al., 2002 and modflow mcdonald and harbaugh, 1988 models. areas that would be most affected due to changes in flows and water stresses were identified, and two villages were selected for community-level interactions. this paper does not go into the details of the watershed modelling component, which is summarized below, but focuses more on the participatory assessment. 4.1. water balance modelling for lakhwar watershed two widely used models viz. swat and modflow were used to evaluate water resources for the lakhwar watershed. while swat models the land and water phase of the hydrological cycle that includes surface runoff, soil moisture development and lateral runoff, and groundwater recharge or baseflows, modflow models the groundwater movement. the input database for the model analysis was built from climatic, pedological, geological, topographical, hydrological, and demographic data listed in table 2 the modelling, analysis and cartographic representation were carried out in the arc/info and arcview geographic information system (gis). the model results were validated by comparing the calculated runoff values with actual flows for the sub-basins measured at runoff gauges maintained by the central water commission, ministry of water resources, government of india. the hydrological model results for the lakhwar watershed show that the average daily surface runoff (water yield) is very high. the peak flows are in the range of 600 to 4 1000 cubic metres per second (cumecs). the average daily flows are in the range of 80-120 cumecs. surface runoff was found to be the most important component of the overall water balance for this watershed table 3 ). this implies that useful interventions for this watershed could include:
How the site-specific 50-year recruitment rate was determined?
by counting the number of individuals younger than 50 years on each plot (see dullinger, dirnbock grabherr 2003 for methods of age determination
How many alternative statistical models were applied?
two alternative statistical models were applied: a negative exponential and a restricted cubic spline with four knots
In the simulation runs, how the stochastic variation was implemented in the number of recruits per site?
by drawing a random number from an exponential distribution for each site with the site-specific recruitment rate (determined from the recruitment kernel) as the respective mean
the site-specific 50-year recruitment rate was determined by counting the number of individuals younger than 50 years on each plot (see dullinger, dirnbock grabherr 2003 for methods of age determination). we fitted a recruitment kernel to these data using the distance (two-dimensional euclidean distance) to the nearest pine shrub stand (= grid cell with a pine shrub cover 10% as determined from aerial photographs) as predictor. two alternative statistical models were applied: a negative exponential and a restricted cubic spline with four knots. restricted cubic splines are third-order polynomials within intervals of the predictor forced to be smooth at the joining points (= knots) and constrained to be linear in the tails (stone koo 1985; harrell 2001). in simulation runs, stochastic variation in the number of recruits per site was implemented by drawing a random number from an exponential distribution for each site with the site-specific recruitment rate (determined from the recruitment kernel) as the respective mean. we used an exponential distribution to mimic the error pattern in fitted recruitment kernels for plots 0 and 20 m from the nearest seed source. subsequently, the predicted number of recruits per site and time step was weighted by two alternative invasibility layers. these layers were derived from the vegetation map. the first one assumed equal invasibility (weighting factor 1) across all types of alpine vegetation (but holding forests and snowbeds uninvasible), the second one assigned each plant community a specific invasibility value. these were calculated as the ratio between observed recruitment rates in individual plant communities and expected rates under a null model of equal invasibility using the same parameterization data set as for demographic variables and vary between 0.1 and 2.1 for the plant communities of the study area (see dullinger, dirnbock grabherr 2003 for details).
What can shells of planktonic calcifiers act as?
the shells of planktonic calcifiers can act as ballast to increase the transport of organic carbon to the deep sea, and thereby sequester it for long periods of time
What do calcifiers build their shells out of?
calcifiers build their shells using the same calcification process as corals, resulting in the same net production of co2
What do we believe about calcifiers?
we believe that calcifiers have a limited impact on climate mitigation through carbon sequestration
the shells of planktonic calcifiers can act as ballast to increase the transport of organic carbon to the deep sea, and thereby sequester it for long periods of time. however, the formation of caco3 at the surface and its dissolution as it sinks drives a surface to deepwater alkalinity gradient, which reduces the capacity of the surface ocean to absorb co2 (mathez 2013). in addition, calcifiers build their shells using the same calcification process as corals, resulting in the same net production of co2. therefore, based on current scientific understanding, we believe that calcifiers have a limited impact on climate mitigation through carbon sequestration.
What provide long term observations?
long-term observations provide data to test another component of the chemical models
What Multi-annual satellite missions provide?
multi-annual satellite missions provide global altitude-resolved observations of trace gases from the early 1990s
How can these data be used?
these data can be used to check the modelled variability e.g. annual cycle, volcanic in fl uence) of key species which control stratospheric ozone
long-term observations provide data to test another component of the chemical models. multi-annual satellite missions provide global altitude-resolved observations of trace gases from the early 1990s. in addition, observations from the network for the detection of atmospheric composition change (ndacc) provide long-term data sets at certain ground-based sites which extend from the 1980s or 1990s to the present day. these data can be used to check the modelled variability e.g. annual cycle, volcanic in fl uence) of key species which control stratospheric ozone. figure 6.15: grading plot for 18 ccms (although no grades for umetrac) for tracer-tracer correlations, comparisons with the mean annual cycle (at 1 hpa and 50 hpa) and mean vertical pro fi les of a range of tracers in 3 latitude bands. also shown is the score of the multi-model mean (mmm).
How can we predict the coming climate changes?
to predict these changes, we inevitably have to rely on complex numerical computer models
How trustworthy will these climate change projections be?
our decision is based on experience from similar situations in the past, rather than on an understanding of the underlying model
What is the cause and trend for climate change?
human influence is very likely responsible for many of the observed largescale trends of warming, and these are almost certain to continue in the near future ipcc 2007 
there is clear and widespread evidence that the climate on earth is changing rapidly. human influence is very likely responsible for many of the observed largescale trends of warming, and these are almost certain to continue in the near future ipcc 2007 ). however, in order to make decisions for mitigation and local adaptation, we need to know how the climate will change locally, and the extent to which heavy rainfall events, sea ice, permafrost, heat waves and many other aspects of the climate are likely to change. to predict these changes, we inevitably have to rely on complex numerical computer models. to what extent should we trust the numbers that come out of our models? when we look at a weather forecast from a numerical model that indicates a 70 per cent chance of rain, we decide whether to take an umbrella or not. our decision is based on experience from similar situations in the past, rather than on an understanding of the underlying model. when we look at climate projections for the next century, in fact, from similar models, we are torn between believing, questioning and ignoring them. why is it so difficult to communicate what we know and what is uncertain about future climate change? why are climate model projections uncertain anyway? how can we be sure that a model that performs well in simulating past or present climate will be reliable in simulating future climate?
What are the consequences of minor increases in GMT?
smaller increases in gmt are now estimated to lead to significant or substantial consequences in the framework of the 5 ''reasons for concern
Is the temperature range in yellow and red more or less wide than the TAR?
the temperature range that is in yellow and red on large-scale discontinuities is now much wider than in the tar
In general, what does the figure provide?
in general, the figure provides a visual portrait of the conclusion that the temperature range from which a consensus definition of ''dangerous anthropogenic interference'' might be drawn is getting lower
compared with results reported in the tar, smaller increases in gmt are now estimated to lead to significant or substantial consequences in the framework of the 5 ''reasons for concern.'' this conclusion is displayed most vividly by side-by-side comparison of the ''embers'' from the tar and the updated assessment displayed in the 2 panels of fig. 1. the transitions from yellow (moderately significant risks) to red (substantial or severe risks) for all of the rfcs are at lower gmt increases above 1990 compared with the location of the transitions in the tar. in addition, for 3 rfcs--distribution of impacts, aggregate impacts, and large-scale discontinuities--the transition from white to yellow (i.e., no or little risk to moderately significant risk) also occurs at a lower gmt increase. the transition from white to yellow in the unique and threatened systems and extreme events rfcs occurs at a lower increase in gmt because there are more and stronger observations of climate change impacts. the temperature range that is in yellow and red on large-scale discontinuities is now much wider than in the tar. in general, the figure provides a visual portrait of the conclusion that the temperature range from which a consensus definition of ''dangerous anthropogenic interference'' might be drawn is getting lower. in summary, the shifting of risk transitions to lower gmts is derived from assessment of i strengthened observations of impacts already occurring because of warming to date, ii better understanding and greater confidence in the likelihood of climatic events and the magnitude of impacts and risks associated with increases in gmt, iii more precise identification of particularly affected sectors, groups, and regions, and iv growing evidence that even modest increases in gmt above levels circa 1990 could commit++the climate system to the risk of very large impacts on multiple-century time scales.
What the concept of synchronization provides?
the concept of synchronization provides a powerful paradigm to guide the enhancement of our understanding of the formation of (nonlinear) teleconnections in the climate system, and to stimulate the development of more advanced measures to detect these effects in measured data [23,26
What is been proposed?
we hence propose that research aiming to construct networks from multivariate climatological data should be embedded within the framework of synchronization in complex networks 4
What will the mutual information allow?
the mutual information will allow to investigate nonlinear dynamical relationships (nonlinear teleconnections) that are not fully detectable by using the linear pearson correlation coefficient note that we evaluate both measures at zero lag between time series
the concept of synchronization provides a powerful paradigm to guide the enhancement of our understanding of the formation of (nonlinear) teleconnections in the climate system, and to stimulate the development of more advanced measures to detect these effects in measured data [23,26]. we hence propose that research aiming to construct networks from multivariate climatological data should be embedded within the framework of synchronization in complex networks 4.1 correlation measures in the spirit of simplicity facing comparably short time series and desiring consistency with the literature, we choose to first use the standard pearson correlation coefficient and then cross-check the results by introducing mutual information to climate network construction. the mutual information will allow to investigate nonlinear dynamical relationships (nonlinear teleconnections) that are not fully detectable by using the linear pearson correlation coefficient note that we evaluate both measures at zero lag between time series. in principle, one can calculate a time delayed pearson correlation (the cross correlation function) and mutual information this is appropriate when studying climate networks on smaller time scales using data sets with (sub-)diurnal resolution [10-12]. however, in the present work, we intend to study long term structural properties of the climate system on a scale of o (102) years using monthly averaged data. most physical mechanisms of global information transfer in the sat field, such as traveling rossby waves, heat exchange between ocean and atmosphere or the advection of heat by surface currents in the ocean, act on time scales of less than one month. therefore, it is reasonable to calculate the correlation measures at zero lag between anomaly time series. 4.1.1 pearson correlation coefficient the parametric empirical pearson correlation coefficient rij < ^ ai( t )^ aj( t > t rji estimates the strength of a linear relationship between two normalized time series ^ ai and ^ aj, given those are normally distributed. it produces spurious results for not normally distributed observables and nonlinear relationships. consequently it should be used with care when constructing climate networks. the non-parametric spearman rank order correlation coefficient, that does not depend on the assumption of normally distributed observables, and rij are found to converge to the same value for nearly all pairs of time series taken from the data sets introduced in sect. 2. the corresponding climate networks hence display close to identical network measures at all topological scales and we conclude, that utilizing the pearson correlation coefficient to study linear climate networks is statistically justified here. in contrast to the standard definition of teleconnectivity we do not limit our analysis to strongly negative correlations. as in earlier works on climate networks, we use the absolute value of pearson correlation pij rij pji to construct climate networks, since both large negative and positive values of pearson correlation are indicative of a strong linear statistical interdependence. 4.1.2 mutual information in climate science, nonlinear measures of statistical interdependence have been successfully applied to uncover strongly nonlinear relationships of climate observables, e.g. the phase coherence between enso and the indian monsoon mutual information from information theory is another nonlinear measure now widely applied in many fields of science, ranging from linguistics to computational neuroscience the mutual information mij can be interpreted as the excess amount of information generated by falsely assuming the two time series ^ ai and ^ aj to be independent, and is able to detect nonlinear relationships by definition, mij is large if the two time series are highly linearly (anti)correlated. in contrast, a strongly nonlinear
Why do we focus on project-level financing data instead of secondary market transactions?
represent money changing hands
Which is typically harder to track, private finance or public resources?
private finance
How many projects have we analyzed this year?
2,016 large-scale renewable projects
landscape 2013 concentrates on new money coming into the system that is targeting climate change. we therefore focus on project-level primary financing data and exclude secondary market transactions, which rather represent money changing hands. building on the methodology in landscape 2012 we capture flows among actors and to projects in this year's edition, we also deepen our understanding of who the ultimate owners of finance are. private finance is typically harder to track than public resources. to obtain a deeper understanding of these flows, landscape 2013 increases the geographic scope and project coverage from landscape 2012 this is particularly evident in our tracking of private investment in large-scale renewable energy projects. this year, we individually analyze project-level data from a sample of 2,016 large-scale renewable projects based in 19 countries (retrieved from the bloomberg new energy finance database). this is an increase from last year when we considered 1,636 projects in nine countries. while these
Why  examine the actual poverty relevance of aid ?
having examined the impact of climate change related activities on poverty, it might seem appropriate to also examine the actual poverty relevance of aid in general
Define poverty eradication?
while poverty eradication has been officially set up as the central objective of aid, this does not necessarily imply that donors act accordingly. in fact, ever since the late 1970s, a large and growing amount of empirical literature on the geographical distribution of aid has clearly established that donors strive for a multitude of different (and partially conflicting) objectives
What are the aims for recipent needs?
aims such as export promotion, political and cultural hegemony, etc. are frequently given priority over recipient needs
having examined the impact of climate change related activities on poverty, it might seem appropriate to also examine the actual poverty relevance of aid in general. while poverty eradication has been officially set up as the central objective of aid, this does not necessarily imply that donors act accordingly. in fact, ever since the late 1970s, a large and growing amount of empirical literature on the geographical distribution of aid has clearly established that donors strive for a multitude of different (and partially conflicting) objectives. aims such as export promotion, political and cultural hegemony, etc. are frequently given priority over recipient needs. the reasons can often be found in the political economy of individual donor countries: bureaucratic procedures which create incentives to spend a maximum amount of money within a restricted budget year, electoral processes which cannot be won with the objective of international poverty reduction, and lobbying by private firms that regard aid as an interesting pool for indirect subsidies (for the political economy of aid, see lahiri and michaelowa 2006). it seems, however, that the development focus of aid has improved in recent years (berthelemy 2006, berthelemy and tichit 2004). looking simply at the regional spread of country allocations as presented in oecd/dac (2005, statistical annex, table 27) it can be observed that bilateral oda to sub-saharan africa increased from 28.5 in 1992-93 to 34.5 in 2002-03. including multilateral oda, the share of gross disbursements to sub-saharan africa for 2002-03 is 36.8%. all these figures, including those for the early 1990s, are much higher than those observed for climate change related activities. all in all, the regional allocation of overall oda seems to be much more poverty oriented than the spread of emission reduction activities in developing countries.
What McKechnie and Wolf have done in this field of study?
mckechnie and wolf (2010) modeled the survival time of birds exposed to increased frequencies of extreme heat waves
What will influence species' responses in the study?
however, species' responses will be influenced by interspecific variation in trade-offs between tolerance to dehydration tolerance and the risk of hyperthermia
What the recent evidence suggests about climate change?
recent evidence suggests that climate change has led to shifts in phenology and morphology and subsequently increased fitness in some endotherms (ozgul et al. 2010
while much is known about endothermic thermoregulation, we know unfortunately little about how variation in tb characteristics of individuals, populations, and species will interact with the effects of climate change to determine the response of endotherms. we have already addressed the quickly growing body of literature using mathematical modeling to address the effects of climate change on endotherms. future efforts along these lines will undoubtedly lead to new insights in the field, but will be vastly improved by including the types of variation we address in this review. as a simple example, mckechnie and wolf (2010) modeled the survival time of birds exposed to increased frequencies of extreme heat waves. they assumed physiological parameters were fixed for birds of a given body mass and therefore predict that all birds of a given size will be equally stressed under the same conditions. however, species' responses will be influenced by interspecific variation in trade-offs between tolerance to dehydration tolerance and the risk of hyperthermia. for instance, variation in the rate at which ewl increases with increasing environmental temperatures will mean that, for a given body mass, some species will reach their limits of tolerance to dehydration more rapidly than will others. such variation may be expected to directly affect selection on tolerance of high tb and will be vital in future modeling efforts. it appears increasingly clear that thermoregulatory characteristics of endotherms are adaptive and have been shaped by past and current selective pressures when exposed to temperatures below the tnz. however, little research has explicitly addressed the possibility that responses to high temperatures vary among and between populations and species in a manner consistent with the predictions of the concept of adaptive thermoregulation (angilletta et al. 2010). furthermore, a vital line of future enquiry in climate research will be to determine the extent to which endotherms can acclimate and acclimatize to rapidly changing selective pressures associated with anthropogenic climate change and how important those shifts will be in terms of fitness. recent evidence suggests that climate change has led to shifts in phenology and morphology and subsequently increased fitness in some endotherms (ozgul et al. 2010). however, other authors have argued that evolutionary processes have done little to stave off extinctions associated with climate change (parmesan 2006). research on adaptive thermoregulation and thermal sensitivity in endotherms in a manner relevant to climate change will be difficult for several reasons. first, long generation times and relatively slow reproductive rates make mammals and birds less conducive to experimental evolutionary research than are many ectotherms. although a few well-studied model species have been, and will continue to be, important in elucidating the mechanisms of adaptation, some research on adaptation will likely have to be conducted on populations exposed to natural selective pressures. second, obvious ethical
What are Soil Cambisols materials?
soil cambisols parent materials are mediumand fine-textured materials derived from a wide range of rocks, mostly in colluvial, alluvial, or aeolian deposits
What Cambisols are characterized by?
cambisols are characterized by slight or moderate weathering of parent material and by absence of appreciable quantities of illuviated clay, organic matter, aluminium, and/or iron compounds
Where is this soil located?
this soil is found at level to mountainous terrain in all climates and under a wide range of vegetation types
soil cambisols parent materials are mediumand fine-textured materials derived from a wide range of rocks, mostly in colluvial, alluvial, or aeolian deposits. cambisols are characterized by slight or moderate weathering of parent material and by absence of appreciable quantities of illuviated clay, organic matter, aluminium, and/or iron compounds. this soil is found at level to mountainous terrain in all climates and under a wide range of vegetation types. soil gleysols wetland soils that, unless drained, are saturated with groundwater for long enough periods to develop a characteristic "gleyic colour pattern" electricity a dummy variable for electricity beef cattle price price of 1 beef cattle milk price price of 1 liter of milk goats price price of 1 goat sheep price price of 1 sheep chickens price price of 1 chicken sale price sale prices of the corresponding livestock grasslands percentage of grassland within a district pk probability that species k is chosen net revenue per species k net revenue earned from species k divided by the number of the species number of species k number of species k at the farm expected net revenue summation over all species of p* knet revenue per species k* number of species k
emision sources of gas?
s t (in units of, say, kg year 1
Elaborate background concentrations?
we assume that there are no natural emissions or background concentrations of this gas, but the analysis can be easily modified to consider perturbations from this natural background. we take the emission sources of this gas to be s t (in units of, say, kg year 1), where t is time
we assume that there are no natural emissions or background concentrations of this gas, but the analysis can be easily modified to consider perturbations from this natural background. we take the emission sources of this gas to be s t (in units of, say, kg year 1), where t is time. if x t is the time-dependent abundance of this gas (which could be presented as a global abundance in the atmosphere in kg, or as a mixing ratio, etc.), then its rate of change is determined by the balance between emissions and sinks. in the absence of sources, the abundance will be represented as x t  1/4  xoexp(t
What are some characteristics that enviromental and resource policies need?
to be realistic, tough, and market-based and adapt as conditions change and put the ultimate objectives of the programs at risk
What are some ways to encourage positive actions towards climate change in a market economy?
through land retirement or through other types of constraints on production practices
What leads to a reduction in resource use?
increased yields and lower prices
environment and natural resource management. environmental and resource policies need to be realistic, tough, and market-based and adapt as conditions change and put the ultimate objectives of the programs at risk. these situations can be "win-win." in the climate scenarios we examined increased yields and lower prices led to a reduction in resource use. in the past, acreage-reduction programs took vast tracts of land out of production to boost prices. in the same way, environmentally targeted programs that reduce production--through land retirement or through other types of constraints on production practices--can offset climate-induced productivity increases, raise commodity prices, and restore income levels. these programs also can be beneficial for the united states overall if the programs are targeted to generate substantial and real environmental gains. if--as projected in our analysis--use of water and land resources declines because of climate change, reallocating resources to environmental and conservation goals may be more feasible. keep in mind, however, that we project reduced resource use compared with a reference. if far greater demand for resources occurs for other reasons (e.g., demand growth abroad), we will not see these reductions compared to current levels. thus, again, climate change is just one of the factors that needs to be considered.
In Chapter 4 and Appendix 2 what does the list of measures include?
different scales by different actors at different phases in the hazard cycle across the fields of health promotion, warning systems and evacuation, disease control, health system disaster procedures, water supply protection and emergency sanitation provision
What are the points they talk about?
point 6 point 6
What were the report from?
hospital system procedures in some countries of the north
chapter 4 and appendix 2 list a range of measures that are taken at different scales by different actors at different phases in the hazard cycle across the fields of health promotion, warning systems and evacuation, disease control, health system disaster procedures, water supply protection and emergency sanitation provision. these stand in addition to a wide range of actions in flood risk reduction generally such as flood control measures and land use planning policy. however, it is difficult at present to make practical statements about the utility and feasibility of different health risk reduction responses. very few independent studies exist that gauge the effectiveness of response measures. aside from reports on hospital system procedures in some countries of the north, most that attempt to do so are evaluation reports of general relief efforts during flood disasters. point 6 point 6
What This approach implicitly assumes?
this approach implicitly assumes that all changes in costs are fully passed through to consumers in every industry
Why is the electricity sector special?
the electricity sector is special because of the long-lived nature of capital in the sector
this approach implicitly assumes that all changes in costs are fully passed through to consumers in every industry. in the long run, production technology is usually characterized as constant returns to scale, which implies that consumers bear the cost of policy. the electricity sector is special because of the long-lived nature of capital in the sector. nonetheless, even in this sector consumers are expected to bear eight times the cost borne by producers (burtraw and palmer 2008). the degree to which the burden of any tax is shared between consumers and producers has been the focus of previous studies but is outside our scope here. as mentioned above, metcalf et al. (2008) assess the distributional impacts of a carbon tax under alternative assumptions about the share of burden borne by consumers and producers. 4. results for policy scenarios the value of emissions allowances that are available for some purpose is equal to the price per mtco2 times the resulting tons of emissions. the emissions cap is expected to result in per capita emissions of 17.15 mtco2. this includes 1.50 mtco2 of offsets, which account for 8.7 percent of the allowance value. an additional 14.8 percent is dedicated to paying for government emissions (including resources necessary to pay for emissions reductions). this leaves 76.5 percent of the allowance value, or $274 per capita available as disbursable revenue. we group our revenue scenarios into two categories, cap-and-dividend options and changes to preexisting taxes. in the first group are two cap-and-dividend options--one in which the dividend is subject to income taxes and one in which it is not. in the second group, we consider a reduction in income taxes, a reduction in payroll taxes, and expansion of the earned income tax credit. in each of the options, the revenues generated from the allowances used to cover all nongovernment emissions are returned to households according to the individual policy prescription. the one exception is the earned income tax credit; in this option, we assume the credit is increased by 50 percent above its current level, which leads to "leftover" revenue that is returned in a lump-sum manner as in the (taxable) cap-and-dividend case. table 3 shows consumer surplus loss as a percent of income for the average household in each income decile before and after the redistribution of revenues for each policy (see appendix h for breakdown by region and decile). negative numbers in the table refer to a consumer surplus gain and positive numbers are a loss. it is clear from the table that the alternative mechanisms for rebating have very different distributional effects. we discuss each in turn in the following sections, along with the results by region.
what is the main greenhouse gas in the atmosphere?
water vapor is the principal greenhouse gas in the atmosphere
what is expected from changes in the absorption of radiation by water vapor?
changes to absorption of radiation by water vapor are expected to contribute significantly to changes in radiative forcing, known as the water vapor feedback (hartmann and michelsen 2002
what are the effects of water vapor in the upper troposphere?
water vapor in the upper troposphere, while insignificant by total mass of column water vapor, can have significant effects on climate, through the formation of clouds (longwave cloud forcing) or by direct absorption of radiation
water vapor is the principal greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. changes to absorption of radiation by water vapor are expected to contribute significantly to changes in radiative forcing, known as the water vapor feedback (hartmann and michelsen 2002). water vapor in the upper troposphere, while insignificant by total mass of column water vapor, can have significant effects on climate, through the formation of clouds (longwave cloud forcing) or by direct absorption of radiation. udelhofen and hartmann (1995) estimated with a radiative transfer model that a 10% increase in upper-tropospheric humidity (uth) could contribute as much as 1.4 w m 2of direct radiative forcing. uth is especially critical in the dry subtropics (hartmann and larson 2002) where the radiative forcing of humidity at upper levels above a dry troposphere can be even larger (jensen et al. 2000). understanding the distribution and variability of uth is critical for understanding and simulating current climate and future climate change. general circulation models (gcms) must represent the vertical and horizontal structure of humidity properly, or else the resulting biases in radiative heating may impact the circulation. unfortunately, uth is difficult to measure, and few comprehensive datasets exist with appropriate vertical resolution and temporal coverage. radiosonde humidity sensors are unreliable in the upper troposphere (elliot and gaffen 1991; miloshevich et al. 2006) and spotty coverage can lead to biases in regions not
What could be a factor to consider, among many, in the design of development activities?
instead, the only implication is that climate risks could well be a factor to consider among many other factors to be taken into account in the design of development activities
Are the risk factors always mariginal or could they be substantial too?
in some cases, this factor could be marginal. in others, it may well be substantial. in any case, these activities would benefit from a consideration of these risks in their design phase
According to the author, in the design phase of development plans, should these risks have attention?
in any case, these activities would benefit from a consideration of these risks in their design phase. hence, one would expect to see some attention being paid to them in project documents, and related sector strategies or parts of national development plans. figures 7 and 8 show the results of these selections, for the three years 1998, 1999, and 200018, using the oecd/world bank credit reporting system (crs) database (box 2
com/env/epoc/dcd/dac(2003)1/final 25 25 change, or even that one would be able to quantify the extent of current and future climate risks. instead, the only implication is that climate risks could well be a factor to consider among many other factors to be taken into account in the design of development activities. in some cases, this factor could be marginal. in others, it may well be substantial. in any case, these activities would benefit from a consideration of these risks in their design phase. hence, one would expect to see some attention being paid to them in project documents, and related sector strategies or parts of national development plans. figures 7 and 8 show the results of these selections, for the three years 1998, 1999, and 200018, using the oecd/world bank credit reporting system (crs) database (box 2).
In which place had extreme flood ?
extreme flooding spanning five countries of central and eastern europe (caspary, 2004
What are the another name of tropical storms ?
hurricanes, cyclones or typhoons
Give example for second major cause of floods ?
tidal and wave extremes are the second major cause of floods
the leading cause of floods is heavy rainfall of long duration or of high intensity, creating high runoff in rivers or a build-up of surface water in areas of low relief. rainfall over long periods may produce a gradual but persistent rise in river levels that causes rivers to inundate surrounding land for days or weeks at a time. in august 2002, for example, intense rainfall of long duration induced extreme flooding spanning five countries of central and eastern europe (caspary, 2004). intense rain from storms and cyclones, on the other hand, may produce rapid runoff and sudden but severe flash floods across river valleys. the flooding from these events is typically more confined geographically and persists for shorter periods, but the violence of the event can be highly damaging and dangerous. intense rain can also cause standing water to develop in urban areas when the capacity of storm drain systems is exceeded. coastal areas may face an added threat from the proximity of the sea. tidal and wave extremes are the second major cause of floods, bringing seawater across land above the normal high tide level. cyclonic storms may create a dangerous 'storm surge' in which low atmospheric pressure causes the sea to rise and strong winds forces water and waves up against the shore. it is important also to note that flood causes may combine. for example, winter storms in the uk may produce simultaneous inland flooding and storm surges that doubly afflict areas adjacent to river mouths. flood events vary greatly in magnitude, timing and impact. handmer et al. (1999, p126) note that the term flooding can cover 'a continuum of events from the barely noticeable through to catastrophes of diluvian proportions'. there are a number of measurable characteristics through which events can be differentiated, including flood depth velocity of flow, spatial extent, content speed of onset duration and seasonality (few, 2003; parker 2000). floods may vary in depth from a few centimetres to several metres. they may be stationary or flow at high velocity. they may be confined to narrow valleys or spread across broad plains. they may contain sewage and pollutants, debris or such quantities of sediment that they are better termed mudflows. they may be slow to build up or rapid in onset as in flash floods. they may last from less than an hour to several months. floods may also be associated with regular climatic seasons such as monsoon rains and other annual heavy rainfall periods. in some locations, such as the major floodplains of bangladesh, extensive flooding from seasonal rains is a normal, annual occurrence to which human lifestyles and livelihoods are largely pre-adapted (though such predictable flooding may still have health implications). however, seasonal flood levels vary from year to year, and such areas tend to be subject to occasional flood events that exceed the normal range of expectation. in 1998, bangladesh experienced flooding of an unprecedented magnitude (depth and duration), surpassing the previous record flood that occurred in 1988 (nishat et al. 2000). figure 2.1 shows the spatial distribution of 'extreme' floods from three different causes listed by the dartmouth flood observatory since 1985. severe floods from high rainfall (of long or short duration) have occurred in almost the humid regions of the world, as well as some semi-arid zones. tropical storms (known as hurricanes, cyclones or typhoons) are more concentrated in distribution, with hotspots around the western pacific coasts, the caribbean and south-eastern usa, and the bay of bengal.
What is the greatest uncertainties in global environmental change?
one of the greatest uncertainties in global environmental change is predicting changes in feedbacks between the biosphere and the earth system
What is the effect of Terrestrial ecosystems?
terrestrial ecosystems and, in particular, forests exert strong controls on the global carbon cycle and influence regional hydrology and climatology directly through water and surface energy budgets bonan, 2008; chapin et al., 2008
What is the affect  tree mortality associated with elevated temperatures according to new research?
according to new research, tree mortality associated with elevated temperatures and drought has the potential to rapidly alter forest ecosystems, potentially affecting feedbacks to the earth system allen et al., 2010
one of the greatest uncertainties in global environmental change is predicting changes in feedbacks between the biosphere and the earth system. terrestrial ecosystems and, in particular, forests exert strong controls on the global carbon cycle and influence regional hydrology and climatology directly through water and surface energy budgets bonan, 2008; chapin et al., 2008]. according to new research, tree mortality associated with elevated temperatures and drought has the potential to rapidly alter forest ecosystems, potentially affecting feedbacks to the earth system allen et al., 2010]. several lines of recent research demonstrate how tree mortality rates in forests may be sensitive to climate change-- particularly warming and drying. this emerging consequence of global change has important effects on earth system processes (figure 1).
What are the main challenges Africa faces regarding climate change?
as one of the most vulnerable regions in the world to the projected impacts of climate change, africa faces many challenges at this critical juncture. traditionally, national development plans, poverty reduction strategy papers, and sectoral strategies in climatesensitive sectors have paid little, if any, attention to climate variability, and even less to climate change
What steps have Africans taken recently in order to tackle climate change?
africans have already begun to take some steps in their region. for example, the african union commission (auc)supported environment initiative of the new partnership for africa's development (nepad), and its related action plan, acknowledge the economic importance of climate variability and change by including a program area on combating climate change in africa. in addition, the auc-supported nepad africa regional strategy for disaster risk reduction recognizes the importance of coordination across agencies for proactive disaster prevention and response strategies
Has the European Union (EU) supported African iniciatives?
the auc, in partnership with the un economic commission for africa and african development bank, is supporting a major new initiative, 'gcos-africa climate for development', beginning in 2007
as one of the most vulnerable regions in the world to the projected impacts of climate change, africa faces many challenges at this critical juncture. traditionally, national development plans, poverty reduction strategy papers, and sectoral strategies in climatesensitive sectors have paid little, if any, attention to climate variability, and even less to climate change. our ability to turn a threat into an opportunity hinges on actions taken today. africans have already begun to take some steps in their region. for example, the african union commission (auc)supported environment initiative of the new partnership for africa's development (nepad), and its related action plan, acknowledge the economic importance of climate variability and change by including a program area on combating climate change in africa. in addition, the auc-supported nepad africa regional strategy for disaster risk reduction recognizes the importance of coordination across agencies for proactive disaster prevention and response strategies. the auc, in partnership with the un economic commission for africa and african development bank, is supporting a major new initiative, 'gcos-africa climate for development', beginning in 2007. the program, part of the global climate observing system, is designed to integrate climate information and services into development in support of africa's progress towards the millennium development goals. a major objective is to mainstream climate information in national development programs, focusing initially on the most climatesensitive sectors. this inaugural report in the climate and society series is a key resource for climateinformed planning and practice in africa - as it critically examines five experiences of ongoing climate risk management in the disaster risk reduction, health, agriculture, and food security sectors. the report provides a valuable opportunity to reflect on the positive lessons that can drawn from these experiences, as well as on the key knowledge, information, and capacity gaps we face in managing climate risk in africa today. ahmadu babagana director department of rural economy and agriculture african union
When CoV interactions were investigated, how significant were the results?
the results were mostly not significant
Can full results be obtained from the authors?
full results can be obtained from the authors upon request
Are geo-referenced variables presented in this paper.
we only present the coefficients of practices we focus on, their interactions with climate shock variables and geo-referenced variables
we only present the coefficients of practices we focus on, their interactions with climate shock variables and geo-referenced variables in the rest of the paper for the sake of brevity. the coefficients of other variables remain virtually unchanged compared to those presented in table 7. full results can be obtained from the authors upon request. 29we have also experimented with cov interactions but the results were mostly not significant. this result can be expected as the impact of long-term shocks on yields are mostly captured by adoption of practices that have the potential to increase yields and decrease their variability over time as a response to long-term variation (arslan et al. 2014; asfaw et al. 2014).
How is feedstock for biofuels distinguished?
feedstock use for biofuels production is distinguished as a separate category of demand in impact
Is feedstock biofuel production modeled?
biofuel production itself is not modeled, but is represented solely in terms of feedstock demand
When will second generation biofuels technologies take over?
we assume that beyond 2025 second-generation biofuels technologies will largely take over, and therefore keep the feedstock demands constant at that period
source authors' calculations.<s112>11 1 <s112>11 feedstock use for biofuels production is distinguished as a separate category of demand in impact. for these results, biofuel production itself is not modeled, but is represented solely in terms of feedstock demand. as a consequence, trade in biofuels is also not directly represented. instead, the share of transport energy assumed to come from biofuels was converted to feedstock tonnage and used to adjust the demand side of impact. we assume that beyond 2025 second-generation biofuels technologies will largely take over, and therefore keep the feedstock demands constant at that period. this causes a 'kink' to appear in some of the model results around 2025.
What does the interpretation and estimation of nonlinear effects depend on?
the interpretation and estimation of nonlinear effects depend heavily on whether observations are highly resolved in space and time or whether they are highly aggregated
What can be said about the local effects of climatic variables?
local effects of climatic variables are often nonlinear in important ways, such as extreme cold days and extreme heat days generating excess mortality (desch^enes greenstone 2011) or extreme heat hours causing damage to crop yields (schlenker roberts 2009
What can you recover by carefully considering the data generation process?
because weather data are often available at high resolution, even when outcome data are not, it is often possible to recover microlevel response functions, below the level of aggregation in the outcome data, by carefully considering the data generating process
the interpretation and estimation of nonlinear effects depend heavily on whether observations are highly resolved in space and time or whether they are highly aggregated. because weather data are often available at high resolution, even when outcome data are not, it is often possible to recover microlevel response functions, below the level of aggregation in the outcome data, by carefully considering the data generating process. 4.1.1. recovering local, microlevel, and instantaneous nonlinear effects. local effects of climatic variables are often nonlinear in important ways, such as extreme cold days and extreme heat days generating excess mortality (desch^enes greenstone 2011) or extreme heat hours causing damage to crop yields (schlenker roberts 2009). in some cases, such as aroonruengsawat auffhammer (2011) and graff zivin neidell (2014), outcomes are measured at the same daily frequency as these nonlinear effects manifest, rendering their measurement straightforward using standard techniques. however, in most cases nonlinear effects manifest over timescales (e.g., hours) and spatial scales (e.g., pixels) that are much finer than the periodicity and spatial scale at which outcome data are measured (e.g., annually by country). similarly, local effects may differ between multiple locations within a unit of observation. despite aggregation of the outcome across space and over moments in time, it is possible to recover nonlinear relationships at the spatial and temporal scale at which climatic data are recorded. suppose outcome yi t is observed over regions i (e.g., provinces) made up of more finely resolved positions s (e.g., pixels) during intervals of time t (e.g., years) comprised of shorter moments t (e.g., days). let the instantaneous nonlinear effect of climate at a moment and position be f cs t), which we approximate as a linear combination of m simple nonlinear functions (e.g., polynomial terms) f cs t) [?] b1 f1( cs t) b2 f2( cs t) bm fm cs t)
What is the study built around?
our study is built around the cgils model intercomparison cases, and complements results shown in blossey et al. [2012] from an international group of les on a much more limited set of cases
What are the three boundary layer types?
three boundary layer types, well-mixed stratocumulus, cumulus under stratocumulus, and cumulus
What the control simulation evolves into?
the control simulation evolves into a quasi-steady state, which takes as much as ten days
we have systematically examined climate change sensitivities of three types of subtropical cloud-topped boundary layers using large-eddy simulations. our study is built around the cgils model intercomparison cases, and complements results shown in blossey et al. [2012] from an international group of les on a much more limited set of cases. for each of the three boundary layer types, well-mixed stratocumulus, cumulus under stratocumulus, and cumulus, we perform a steadily forced control simulation on a small horizontally doubly-periodic domain. the control simulation evolves into a quasi-steady state, which takes as much as ten days. we then perturb the forcings in various ways that might accompany a climate change, including changes in temperature, co2 concentration, relative humidity, subsidence, inversion stability, and wind speed. by separating these changes and assuming they can be approximately linearly superposed to predict the cloud radiative response to multiple forcing changes, we can infer the les-predicted cloud response to a broad range of possible climate change forcings. in particular, we can estimate the cloud response to a cmip3 multimodel mean forcing change for some particular greenhouse gas emissions scenario, e. g. co2 doubling. our les responds similarly to other less for the smaller set of forcing perturbations considered in cgils blossey et al. 2012]; this adds credibility to its simulated cloud response for the broad suite of forcings that we consider. at all three locations, our les predicts a reduction in shortwave cloud radiative effect (positive shortwave cloud feedback) for the cmip3 2 x co2 forcing perturbations. for both the well-mixed and cumulus-coupled stratocumulus regimes, the simulated mean swcre is 150-170 w m- 2
what happens if the sea levels rise?
rising sea levels could overrun wetlands, leading to higher eutrophication rates due to loss of their nutrient abatement services (kemp et al. 2005
what areas are being effected?
rising sea levels associated with increasing annual average temperatures (due to ice melt and thermal expansion of water) is increasing the volume of bays, estuaries, and continental shelf area
what total effect is this having on these areas?
this increases the overall volume of shallow coastal water susceptible to hypoxia and promotes stratification of the water column that in turn sets the stage for low oxygen in bottom waters, particularly in bays with sills at their mouths (van der zwaan jorissen, 1991; davies xing, 2007
rising sea levels associated with increasing annual average temperatures (due to ice melt and thermal expansion of water) is increasing the volume of bays, estuaries, and continental shelf area. this increases the overall volume of shallow coastal water susceptible to hypoxia and promotes stratification of the water column that in turn sets the stage for low oxygen in bottom waters, particularly in bays with sills at their mouths (van der zwaan jorissen, 1991; davies xing, 2007). in addition, rising sea levels could overrun wetlands, leading to higher eutrophication rates due to loss of their nutrient abatement services (kemp et al. 2005).
Where in Canada are climatic changes occuring?
in canada, this is most evident in the north, where changes in ice cover, permafrost stability and wildlife distribution are impacting traditional ways of life
What has affected hunting grounds?
changes in sea-ice distribution and extent have made travel in the north more difficult and dangerous, and have affected access to hunting grounds
Is there evidence for climate change already affecting human and natural systems?
there is increasing evidence that climate change is already affecting human and natural systems around the world
there is increasing evidence that climate change is already affecting human and natural systems around the world. in canada, this is most evident in the north, where changes in ice cover, permafrost stability and wildlife distribution are impacting traditional ways of life.(11)for example, changes in sea-ice distribution and extent have made travel in the north more difficult and dangerous, and have affected access to hunting grounds.(12)in other regions of canada, changes in water flows, fish populations, tree distribution, forest fires, drought, and agricultural and forestry pests have been associated with recent warming see 'water resources', 'fisheries', 'agriculture' and 'forestry' chapters).
What is the objective of this paper?
the objective of this paper is to reflect on the meaning and significance of the adaptation revival
What is their main interest?
our main interest is to explore the extent to which the political economy critique of the adaptation concept has influenced how the concept is currently used in the climate change literature
What kind of activities do they focus on?
that is, has the conceptualization of adaptation in this literature been enriched by the political economy critique of the 1970s and 1980s and thus represent something new? or is the concept used in a way today that echoes previous conceptualizations and debates? that is, is this a deja vu experience? to answer this question, we focus on the natural hazards school's interpretation of adaptation, which has had the greatest impact on the climate change literature
the objective of this paper is to reflect on the meaning and significance of the adaptation revival. our main interest is to explore the extent to which the political economy critique of the adaptation concept has influenced how the concept is currently used in the climate change literature. that is, has the conceptualization of adaptation in this literature been enriched by the political economy critique of the 1970s and 1980s and thus represent something new? or is the concept used in a way today that echoes previous conceptualizations and debates? that is, is this a deja vu experience? to answer this question, we focus on the natural hazards school's interpretation of adaptation, which has had the greatest impact on the climate change literature. other strands of adaptation thinking in cultural and human ecology brookfield, 1973; butzer, 1980a,b, 1990; denevan, 1983 have not been as influential janssen et al., 2006 248) despite some important social theoretical similarities with the hazards school's approach to adaptation.2
For all model and observational time-series, the annual  rate of what?
co2
By contrast, the wide-range of longer-term projections of changes in land carbon storage is known?
to be in large part due to the different responses of npp to climate change
for all model and observational time-series, the annual co2 growth-rate, and the associated mean tropical temperature, were de-trended using an 11-year running mean, with the residuals defining the annual anomalies (see supplementary material, figure s2). in each case a least-squares linear regression was found between these anomalies in the co2 growth-rate and the anomalies in the tropical temperature, with the gradient of the best-fit defining the iav sensitivity (see point 5. below). the iav sensitivity was calculated for a range of datasets of tropical temperature and atmospheric co2 (see point 4. below), so as to explore the uncertainty in the estimate of the iav sensitivity arising from uncertainties in the observational data. these different estimates are listed in supplementary material, table s1. in order to isolate the separate contributions of the tropical net primary productivity (npp) and soil respiration, similar regressions against tropical temperature anomalies were carried out separately for each of these fluxes as diagnosed from the c4mip models (see suppl. mat., figure s1). this showed that the iav sensitivity across the model ensemble is correlated with the response of tropical soil respiration (figure s1(b)), rather than npp (figure s1(c)). by contrast, the wide-range of longer-term projections of changes in land carbon storage is known to be in large part due to the different responses of npp to climate change3.
What does Extended Data Figure 6 shows?
extended data figure 6 time lags between phenological events and seasonal windows of climate sensitivity
what is specific about  Peaks at lags of around 1 year?
eaks at lags of around 1 year are where windows were identified that ended at the mean seasonal timing of an event, but in the previous year, owing to temporal autocorrelation in climate data n 370,725
extended data figure 6 time lags between phenological events and seasonal windows of climate sensitivity. a - d frequency histograms showing the time lag (in days) between the mean timing of each phenological event and the end of seasonal windows corresponding to the lower and upper limits of csp<s179>temp a and b respectively) and the lower and upper limits of csp<s179>precip c and d respectively). peaks at lags of around 1 year are where windows were identified that ended at the mean seasonal timing of an event, but in the previous year, owing to temporal autocorrelation in climate data n 370,725).
What is one impact of climate change in Australia?
one impact of climate change is to lessen the potential relevance to a region of previous r&d conducted in that region as the previous r&d is based on a climate pattern no longer as relevant to that region
Are there any clear cut examples of climate change projections for Australia?
the projections for change in rainfall amounts and patterns are highly variable and different across regions. even in a relatively small region like gippsland in victoria, hood et al (2002) reported that climate change will affect its different agricultural activities in diverse ways over time, favouring some activities while adversely affecting others
What is the impact of natural environment on climate change in Australia?
natural environments, including remnant bushland on farms and nature reserves in rural districts, represent a fixity of land use and, in the face of climate change, risk being stranded assets whose ecological value is degraded by climate change. the patchwork of remnant bush, in the absence of linking corridors, exposes these natural assets to ecological loss and prevents natural ecological succession. in some situations the possibility of species extinction is enhanced
spatial and temporal variation as outlined earlier in this paper, climate change projections involve non-uniform spatial and temporal impacts. although the trend is for the australian agricultural environment to become warmer and subject to more frequent extreme events, the projections for change in rainfall amounts and patterns are highly variable and different across regions. even in a relatively small region like gippsland in victoria, hood et al (2002) reported that climate change will affect its different agricultural activities in diverse ways over time, favouring some activities while adversely affecting others. the temporal aspects of climate change are especially important, yet are a feature about which there is great uncertainty. the rate of change in climate is important as it affects the capacity and ease of natural and built environments to adjust or adapt to climate change and it affects the profitability of the adjustment response. quiggin and horowicz (2003) point out that agricultural adjustment costs will be increased where climate-dependent long-lived assets depreciate too slowly in the face of climate change. examples of such assets they consider are water supply and grain storage and handling infrastructure. adjustment costs can take different forms. capital losses can occur through over-investment in assets whose service life is reduced through climate change that causes these assets to be stranded or under-utilised. for example, large long-lived capital investments in grain handling and storage can become redundant or under-utilised in regions where climate change leads to grain production declining or, in extreme cases, ceasing. conversely, additional capital costs can be incurred if an initial capital investment is rendered inadequate due to impacts of climate change. for example, initial investments in water storage on farms may prove inadequate in the face of warming and drying trends, triggering additional expenditure on water storage assets. another aspect of the rate of climate change is its impact on the natural environment (quiggin and horowicz 2003). natural environments, including remnant bushland on farms and nature reserves in rural districts, represent a fixity of land use and, in the face of climate change, risk being stranded assets whose ecological value is degraded by climate change. the patchwork of remnant bush, in the absence of linking corridors, exposes these natural assets to ecological loss and prevents natural ecological succession. in some situations the possibility of species extinction is enhanced. even where ecological succession is facilitated by the linking of reserves to traverse isohyets and isotherms, the natural rate of species' movement and succession may be inadequate if the rate of climate change is sufficiently high. where climate change is rapid, adjustment costs can feature as an important component of the costs of climate change. in static analyses of climate change these dynamic adjustment costs are typically overlooked and therefore these analyses can understate the costs associated with climate change. the rate of climate change can also affect the returns to agricultural r&d, where investments are climate-dependent and have long lead times or long pay-back intervals. for example, developing or selecting new crop and pasture species, varieties and animal lines can take decades or at least several years. however, a high rate of climate change could reduce the likely profit stream from these innovations as eventually these innovations will be grown or used in climatic regimes to which they are less suited. often productivity gains involve small increments that in turn depend on r&d findings from r&d projects funded several years, if not decades, earlier (alston and pardey 2001, pardey and beintema 2001, mullen 2002). one impact of climate change is to lessen the potential relevance to a region of previous r&d conducted in that region as the previous r&d is based on a climate pattern no longer as relevant to that region. in this case, regionally-specific r&d knowledge is
What is Runoff?
runoff is a measure of water availability, and represents the amount of rainfall that runs off the land surface after accounting for evaporation, plant transpiration and soil moisture replenishment
What does the maroon outlined areas depict in runoff?
the maroon outlined areas depict each-for study areas
What does he right inset map shows in runoff?
the right inset map shows pasture lands distribution, an important livelihood for many in the sahel
the main map depicts projected declines in runoff by the year 2080 superimposed on population density. runoff is a measure of water availability, and represents the amount of rainfall that runs off the land surface after accounting for evaporation, plant transpiration and soil moisture replenishment. the maroon outlined areas depict each-for study areas. the lower left inset map shows average annual runoff for the 1960-1990 period, a baseline against which future declines are compared. the center inset map provides the area suitable for rain-fed agriculture, which largely reflects the population density map. the right inset map shows pasture lands distribution, an important livelihood for many in the sahel. in this region of scarce water resources and high climate variability, any decline in runoff or change in rainfall patterns will adversely affect the livelihoods of subsistence farmers and pastoralists. projected drying trends in a context of poverty, inequality, limited diversification options and erratic government support could contibute to transform current patterns into a more permanent, long-term dynamic.
What are the outputs typically removed from?
the outputs are typically removed from the political and empirical reality within which responses to climate change are developed
Recent overviews of scenarios are generated by what?
recent overviews of scenarios generated by a range of different international integrated assessment modelling communities 10 14 illustrate the non-contextual framing that typifies much of this form of analysis
the majority had a global emissions peak when?
in 2010
the scenarios developed in this paper are relatively contextual24and as such complement the wealth of scenarios from more non-contextual integrated assessment models.25however, while it may be argued that the latter approach benefits from greater internal consistency and more theoretically coherent parameters, the outputs are typically removed from the political and empirical reality within which responses to climate change are developed. for example, recent overviews of scenarios generated by a range of different international integrated assessment modelling communities 10 14 illustrate the non-contextual framing that typifies much of this form of analysis. of the principal 450 ppmv scenarios reviewed, the majority had a global emissions peak in 2010, this despite irrefutable evidence to the contrary 48 ].26over a third factored in negative emissions through the inclusion of geo-engineering in the form of 'biomass with carbon capture and storage' (ccs) technologies. these bio-ccs scenarios all included wider ccs facilities, yet were without detailed analysis of potentially significant constraints on storage capacity.27at least half of the scenarios relied on significant levels of 'overshoot' (between 500 and 590 ppmv co2e)28and
What does the 20-yr-mean global northward heat transport is shown in Fig. 17 reflect?
the 20-yr-mean global northward heat transport is shown in fig. 17, reflecting changes in the meridional sea surface temperature gradient and in the overturning circulation under the assumption of near-incompressibility of ocean water masses
What are the difficulties associated with the estimate of the heat transport from observations?
the difficulties associated with the estimate of the heat transport from observations include, for example, limitation of data to certain regions, a low amount of available data, and problems associated with quasi-stationary eddies
What do Fig 15 and 17 show?
as shown in figs. 15 and 17, the heat transport in the petm scenarios diminishes with a less vigorous meridional overturning
the 20-yr-mean global northward heat transport is shown in fig. 17, reflecting changes in the meridional sea surface temperature gradient and in the overturning circulation under the assumption of near-incompressibility of ocean water masses. it is remarkable that the range in the present-day observations exceeds the petm 2 present-day differences. the difficulties associated with the estimate of the heat transport from observations include, for example, limitation of data to certain regions, a low amount of available data, and problems associated with quasi-stationary eddies. on the other hand, the estimates from model simulations depend on the model parameterizations (e.g., subgrid-scale eddies). as shown in figs. 15 and 17, the heat transport in the petm scenarios diminishes with a less vigorous meridional overturning
What will happen to the programs of biodiversity conservation?
programs of biodiversity conservation will face an increasingly difficult challenge as environmental conditions in the sfew diverge from those to which its native species are adapted expected outcomes include increasing extinction risk of native species and continuing emergence of nonnative species as dominant components of biological communities
What are the expected outcomes?
expected outcomes include increasing extinction risk of native species and continuing emergence of nonnative species as dominant components of biological communities
What example occurred in Denmark's Ringkobing Fjord?
 a recent example occurred in denmark's ringkobing fjord, where mean salinity increased 1.6 psu after actions were taken to enhance water exchange with the north sea. this small salinity change was followed by sudden and unanticipated reorganization of biological communities at all trophic levels, from phytoplankton to macrobenthos and waterbirds
programs of biodiversity conservation will face an increasingly difficult challenge as environmental conditions in the sfew diverge from those to which its native species are adapted expected outcomes include increasing extinction risk of native species and continuing emergence of nonnative species as dominant components of biological communities. fishes endemic to the delta, such as delta smelt, are adapted to cool, turbid, lowsalinity habitats sustaining populations of these species will become increasingly difficult as delta waters warm, clear and become more saline (fig. 2). of the four runs of chinook salmon that spawn in the sacramento-san joaquin drainage, the winter run is at exceptional risk because its spawning is timed such that eggs develop in summer, when projected river temperatures reach lethal levels (fig. 4). communities of fish and their zooplankton prey in the delta have become increasingly dominated by nonnative species whose successful invasions have been facilitated by synergistic effects of climate anomalies (extended drought) and flow management our projections include significant departures from the contemporary climate and flow regimes in the future, so environmental conditions might continue to move toward those that select for nonnative biota. we have learned from other studies that small perturbations can trigger ecosystem regime shifts. a recent example occurred in denmark's ringkobing fjord, where mean salinity increased 1.6 psu after actions were taken to enhance water exchange with the north sea. this small salinity change was followed by sudden and unanticipated reorganization of biological communities at all trophic levels, from phytoplankton to macrobenthos and waterbirds we project larger salinity increases in san francisco bay by the end of the 21stcentury (fig. 2). therefore, conservation
What is the net index?
the net index, which reflects the difference between the optimistic and the pessimistic positions
How many companies were included in the survey?
this is a survey of the 500 largest companies in the city of madrid
What does the Business Barometer of Andalusia help with?
the business barometer of andalusia (barometro empresarial de andalucia) makes it possible to use the indicators to describe business people's perception of the actual economic situation and their short-term expectations
clima empresarial) conducted in order to obtain the barometer of the urban economy for the government economy area and citizen participation in the town council of madrid (area de gobierno de economia y participacion ciudadana del ayuntamiento de madrid). this is a survey of the 500 largest companies in the city of madrid and it also provides the confidence indicator of business (indicator de confianza empresarial). in a similar way, the business barometer of andalusia (barometro empresarial de andalucia) makes it possible to use the indicators to describe business people's perception of the actual economic situation and their short-term expectations. one of the concepts used in the andalusian survey, that is different from the index analyzed by the majority of comparable surveys, is the net index, which reflects the difference between the optimistic and the pessimistic positions in the following way:
What are the consequences for the peatlands drying out?
drying will lower the water table and likely result in reduced emissions of methane (ch4) from these ecosystems
What is the main goal of this study?
the goal of this study was to characterize the relationship between the presence of sedges in peatlands and ch4 efflux under natural conditions and under a climate change simulation
What are the findings related to the attenuation of  CH4?
this finding suggests that ch4 flux could be decreased in the event of climate warming due to the greater depth to the water table, and that sedges colonizing these areas could further attenuate ch4 fluxes during dry periods
under the warmer climate, predicted for the future, northern peatlands are expected to become drier. this drying will lower the water table and likely result in reduced emissions of methane (ch4) from these ecosystems. however, the prediction of declining ch4 fluxes does not consider the potential effects of ecological succession, particularly the invasion of sedges into currently wet sites (open water pools, low lawns). the goal of this study was to characterize the relationship between the presence of sedges in peatlands and ch4 efflux under natural conditions and under a climate change simulation (drained peatland). methane fluxes, gross ecosystem production, and dissolved pore water ch4 concentrations were measured and a vegetation survey was conducted in a natural and drained peatland near st. charlesde-bellechasse, quebec, canada, in the summer of 2003. each peatland also had plots where the sedges had been removed by clipping. sedges were larger, more dominant, and more productive at the drained peatland site. the natural peatland had higher ch4 fluxes than the drained peatland, indicating that drainage was a significant control on ch4 flux. methane flux was higher from plots with sedges than from plots where sedges had been removed at the natural peatland site, whereas the opposite case was observed at the drained peatland site. these results suggest that ch4 flux was enhanced by sedges at the natural peatland site and attenuated by sedges at the drained peatland site. however, the attenuation of ch4 flux due to sedges at the drained site was reduced in wetter periods. this finding suggests that ch4 flux could be decreased in the event of climate warming due to the greater depth to the water table, and that sedges colonizing these areas could further attenuate ch4 fluxes during dry periods. however, during wet periods, the sedges may cause ch4 fluxes to be higher than is currently predicted for climate change scenarios. key words: peatland; ecological succession; vascular plant; methane flux; water table.
What did you examine in case of SST and murre populations?
we examined the relationship between changes in sst and changes in murre populations
What were the results of your models on murre populations?
for both murre species, the parameter estimate for the quadratic term was significantly different from zero (common murres, p 5 0.013; thickbilled murres, p 5 0.006), and fitted the data much better than the linear model (common murres linear regression: r25 0.18, quadratic regression: r25 0.28; thick-billed murres linear regression: r25 0.16, quadratic regression: r25 0.37); consequently, we have plotted results from only the quadratic regression models
we examined the relationship between changes in sst and changes in murre populations. we used the timing of climatic regime shifts as boundaries for our analyses. we ran a linear regression model that was consistent with a monotonic effect of climate change on murre populations. however, inspection of the residuals revealed that structure remained. we next ran a quadratic regression model that was consistent with the idea that too much change in the environment, either warming or cooling would be detrimental for murres. for both murre species, the parameter estimate for the quadratic term was significantly different from zero (common murres, p 5 0.013; thickbilled murres, p 5 0.006), and fitted the data much better than the linear model (common murres linear regression: r25 0.18, quadratic regression: r25 0.28; thick-billed murres linear regression: r25 0.16, quadratic regression: r25 0.37); consequently, we have plotted results from only the quadratic regression models.
What do researchers suggest regarding climate issues? They suggest that there is much to learn from the literature on natural hazards
researchers therefore suggest that there is much to be learned from the natural hazards literature
What is the purpose of studying how communities have responded socially, economically and politically to past disasters? Is it to provide insight into potential responses to future events
studying how communities have responded socially, economically and politically to past disasters provides insight into potential responses to future events
What do other researchers warn about observed responses to past events? They warn that responses observed in the past can be misleading.
other researchers caution, however, that observed responses to past events may potentially be "highly misleading predictors of future response
current vulnerability is often estimated by examining how a system has responded to past climate variability. a system that has a proven ability to adapt to historical climate fluctuations and stress is generally considered less vulnerable. researchers therefore suggest that there is much to be learned from the natural hazards literature.(22)studying how communities have responded socially, economically and politically to past disasters provides insight into potential responses to future events. other researchers caution, however, that observed responses to past events may potentially be "highly misleading predictors of future response."(23)it is important to consider the ability of a region or community to learn from the past and implement strategies to reduce losses from similar events in the future. for example, since the 1998 ice storm, quebec has taken significant measures to strengthen emergency preparedness and response capacity, and is therefore much better positioned to cope with future extreme events.(24)
Where are some places this organization has made a difference for women?
in afghanistan provide training in basic health and literacy skills and human rights education to give women the practical skills they need to take part in development. support the lobbying of decision-makers to increase women's representation at all levels of government. * in india support education and training for women from the poorest and most marginalised dalit and tribal communities in tamil nadu state to give them the confidence and
What are some ways they help?
albania support training for existing and potential women leaders in local and national elections. work with a range of actors, including journalists and politicians, to change negative attitudes and to create an enabling environment for women's participation
What basic essentials do these women have to fight for?
state to give them the confidence and skills to speak out about the issues that concern them, such as electricity and water for their communities. some of
strategies deployed by womankind worldwide4 include: * in albania support training for existing and potential women leaders in local and national elections. work with a range of actors, including journalists and politicians, to change negative attitudes and to create an enabling environment for women's participation. * in afghanistan provide training in basic health and literacy skills and human rights education to give women the practical skills they need to take part in development. support the lobbying of decision-makers to increase women's representation at all levels of government. * in india support education and training for women from the poorest and most marginalised dalit and tribal communities in tamil nadu state to give them the confidence and skills to speak out about the issues that concern them, such as electricity and water for their communities. some of the women have gone on to stand for local council elections with 50 percent then elected. (adapted from womankind worldwide webpage)
The sharp change of the thermodynamic effect caused by BC from warming to cooling across the atmosphere-surface interface generates what effect?
this sharp change of the thermodynamic effect caused by bc from warming to cooling across the atmosphere-surface interface generates negative fluxes of both sensible and latent heat in the low and middle latitudes in the northern hemisphere to compensate the radiative cooling at the land surface caused by bc aerosol
Resultant changes in land surface temperature are thus determined by what two factors?
resultant changes in land surface temperature are thus determined by the difference between compensating heat fluxes and the reduction in absorbed solar radiation at the surface
What has led to a complication in the situation regarding BC aerosol?
however, the situation related to bc aerosol becomes more complicated due to bc's atmospheric heating, which is opposite to the sulfate aerosols' cooling effect on atmosphere
northern hemisphere that obviously can lead to a cooling of the ground. this sharp change of the thermodynamic effect caused by bc from warming to cooling across the atmosphere-surface interface generates negative fluxes of both sensible and latent heat in the low and middle latitudes in the northern hemisphere to compensate the radiative cooling at the land surface caused by bc aerosols. resultant changes in land surface temperature are thus determined by the difference between compensating heat fluxes and the reduction in absorbed solar radiation at the surface. the similar processes occur in the atmosphere-ocean surface as shown in som runs. note a previous study using an interactive sulfate aerosol-climate model roeckner et al. 1999] has also indicated the similar response of surface heat fluxes to the reduction of incoming solar radiation caused by sulfate aerosols. however, the situation related to bc aerosol becomes more complicated due to bc's atmospheric heating, which is opposite to the sulfate aerosols' cooling effect on atmosphere. in most latitudes of the northern hemisphere, negative heat fluxes somewhat offset the cooling figure 12. the spatial distribution of the non-twomey-albrecht indirect forcing at the surface in w/m2, derived from the last 20-year means of som run using equation (3) (upper panel); and (b) comparison between the zonal means of ntaif at the surface derived from som runs (last 20-year mean) and from osst runs (20-year mean) (lower panel).
What is one of the major goals of this comparison of varied grids?
one major goal of this comparison of different grids was to understand how 69 model biases evolve with increasing resolution
What is one of the major deficiencies of IPSL-CM4?
it appears that grid refinement 70 affects the position of the jets, and in turn the mid-latitude cold bias which 71 was one of the major deficiencies of ipsl-cm4
Who was responsible for studying the cause of the impact of grid 72 refinement on the jet latitude is found in large-scale atmospheric dynamics?
guemas and codron (2011
one major goal of this comparison of different grids was to understand how 69 model biases evolve with increasing resolution. it appears that grid refinement 70 affects the position of the jets, and in turn the mid-latitude cold bias which 71 was one of the major deficiencies of ipsl-cm4. the cause of the impact of grid 72 refinement on the jet latitude is found in large-scale atmospheric dynamics, and 73 was studied by guemas and codron (2011). here we show that these changes also 74 affect significantly the biases of the coupled model, as well as the mean climate 75 equilibrium temperature. 76
How long should the design horizon of a sewage treatment be?
the design horizon of a sewage treatment works should be relatively short, preferably 20 years or less
Where are high population growth rates observed?
high population growth rates are observed in many urban areas of developing countries
How should the preliminary studies be done?
the preliminary studies should be done considering the whole design horizon, in order to allow the estimation of the full land requirements for the plant
s taging periods: the time intervals when plant expansions are made the design horizon of a sewage treatment works should be relatively short, preferably 20 years or less. the design horizon should still be divided into staging periods, in the order of 7 to 10 years. the larger the population growth rate, the more important is the subdivision into stages, the greater should be the number of staging periods and the lower the duration of each stage. high population growth rates are observed in many urban areas of developing countries. on the other hand, very short stages should be avoided in view of the disturbances associated with the almost continuous coexistence with construction works in the plant. the preliminary studies should be done considering the whole design horizon, in order to allow the estimation of the full land requirements for the plant. however, the detailed design and the construction of the units should be confined to each implementation stage. some reasons for this are:
How we could have reduced the damage caused by Hurricane Andrew?
it has been calculated that the damage caused by hurricane andrew would have been reduced by 40% if buildings had been constructed to current building codes
Which area was mainly affected by the Braer storm?
the braer storm mainly affected the shetland islands
What are the two major advantages of sarking boards?
the use of sarking boards has two major advantages. first, if the roofing tiles or slates are blown away, there is a secondary covering underneath to prevent the wind from entering the loft. secondly, the smooth surface of sarking boards means that each tile or slate has to be individually nailed in place or it will fall off during construction
one of the reasons for this is resilient construction. it has been calculated that the damage caused by hurricane andrew would have been reduced by 40% if buildings had been constructed to current building codes. 3 the braer storm mainly affected the shetland islands, where traditional scottish or scandinavian designs are used, and all the building companies are local. as a result, almost all the buildings are constructed of thick stone walls and welsh slated roofs, with sarking boards. the use of sarking boards has two major advantages. first, if the roofing tiles or slates are blown away, there is a secondary covering underneath to prevent the wind from entering the loft. secondly, the smooth surface of sarking boards means that each tile or slate has to be individually nailed in place or it will fall off during construction. without sarking boards, tiles can simply be hooked onto battens and will stay in place without nailing, so the absence of fixings is not noticed until the wind blows. unfortunately, sarking boards are rarely used now, at least in england and wales, yet the cost of using them during construction is relatively low. during 1997 and 1998, the department of environment, transport and the regions, and the scottish office, funded a project with the building research establishment in scotland to review the impacts of climate change on the construction industry and on building standards. 4 the report highlighted the need for the design and planning of new buildings to change to ' future proof ' new construction, and that failure to adapt existing buildings to cope with future climate would result in increased maintenance and repair costs, and inevitable increases in insurance premiums. further research and impact assessments were required. unfortunately little has been done since then. perhaps this is because of the widely held perception that older buildings are more vulnerable to storm damage than new ones, especially if they have not been well maintained. the building research establishment was stating this as recently as 2003, but how much of this is fact and how much is assumption? david crichton was only able to find one uk research project based on the large insurance industry database of storm damage cases, and this shows that the perceptions may be wrong. research for the loss prevention council (now part of the building research establishment) in 1998 shows that:
What does the most popular prediction say?
the most popularized prediction says there will progressively be drier conditions with more erratic rainfall
What does this article investigate?
this article investigates the climate-conflict nexus in detail, focusing on a distinct area at the heart of the sahel, the inland delta of the niger river in the mopti region of mali
How many complementary analytical approaches are applied?
two complementary analytical approaches are applied
while climate change scenarios for the sahel vary and are uncertain, the most popularized prediction says there will progressively be drier conditions with more erratic rainfall. according to some, an increase in violent conflicts over scarce resources should also be expected. this article investigates the climate-conflict nexus in detail, focusing on a distinct area at the heart of the sahel, the inland delta of the niger river in the mopti region of mali. two complementary analytical approaches are applied. the first consists of collection and analysis of court data on land-use conflicts, 1992-2009, from the regional court of appeal in mopti. a comparison of the conflict data with statistics on contemporaneous climatic conditions gives little substance to claims that climate variability is an important driver of these conflicts. second, we carried out a qualitative analysis of one of the many land-use conflicts in the region. again, we find that factors other than those directly related to environmental conditions and resource scarcity dominate as plausible explanations of the violent conflict. we argue that three structural factors are the main drivers behind these conflicts: agricultural encroachment that obstructed the mobility of herders and livestock, opportunistic behavior of rural actors as a consequence of an increasing political vacuum, and corruption and rent seeking among government officials. keywords climate change, conflicts, mali, sahel
What is the form of efforts to anticipate threats to biodiversity?
efforts to anticipate threats to biodiversity take the form of species richness predictions (srps) based on simple correlations with current climate and habitat area
What does extinction prediction suffer from?
extinction prediction suffers from a number of limitations related to data and the novelty of future environments
What do these recommendations amount to?
together, these recommendations amount to a shift in emphasis from prediction of extinction numbers to identification of vulnerabilities and leading indicators of change, as well as suggestions for surveillance tools needed to evaluate important variables and the experiments likely to provide most insight
efforts to anticipate threats to biodiversity take the form of species richness predictions (srps) based on simple correlations with current climate and habitat area. we review the major approaches that have been used for srp, species-area curves and climate envelopes, and suggest that alternative research efforts may provide more understanding and guidance for management. extinction prediction suffers from a number of limitations related to data and the novelty of future environments. we suggest additional attention to (1) identification of variables related to biodiversity that are diagnostic and potentially more predictable than extinction, (2) constraints on species dispersal and reproduction that will determine population persistence and range shifts, including limited sources or potential immigrants for many regions, and (3) changes in biotic interactions and phenology. we suggest combinations of observational and experimental approaches within a framework available for ingesting heterogeneous data sources. together, these recommendations amount to a shift in emphasis from prediction of extinction numbers to identification of vulnerabilities and leading indicators of change, as well as suggestions for surveillance tools needed to evaluate important variables and the experiments likely to provide most insight.
What causes The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon ?
the el nino-southern oscillation (enso) phenomenon results from air-sea interactions in the tropical pacific
what is the literal meaning of El Nino ?
the name 'el nino', meaning christ child
because amphibian population declines have been linked to climate changes associated with el nino (e.g. kiesecker et al ., 2001), this next section will examine how this phenomenon has varied over time. the el nino-southern oscillation (enso) phenomenon results from air-sea interactions in the tropical pacific that affect rainfall, temperature, ocean currents and wind patterns both locally and over the entire globe (see references in glynn, 1988; trenberth, 1997). the name 'el nino', meaning christ child, was applied first to the modest warming that normally occurs near peru around christmas-time, but the term has now come to mean the anomalous warming of most of the equatorial pacific ocean that occurs
In which decade did a series of outbreaks begin? In the 1970s
the first was a series of outbreaks, beginning in the 1970's
Which of the pests and diseases that devastated rice paddies in many countries? leafhopper and the rice tungro virus
the first was a series of outbreaks, beginning in the 1970's, of hitherto minor pests and diseases which devastated rice crops across many countries, chief among them the brown planthopper and rice tungro virus
What are the main methods promoted in response? it was the genetic resistance involved in the seed and the expansion of pesticide use.
the principal methods promoted in response were genetic resistance wrapped in the seed and expanded use of pesticides
the first was a series of outbreaks, beginning in the 1970's, of hitherto minor pests and diseases which devastated rice crops across many countries, chief among them the brown planthopper and rice tungro virus. the principal methods promoted in response were genetic resistance wrapped in the seed and expanded use of pesticides. farmers were generally not aware of this resistance and often sprayed pesticides even when this was not necessary. many of these applications caused the pests to resurge by decimating their natural enemies, such as spiders. the second crisis, widespread environmental pollution and occupational poisoning, was a consequence of that poorly regulated expansion of pesticide use. it was only slowly recognized that substantial morbidity and mortality were occurring (loevinsohn 1986, rola and pingali 1993). regulation of the most hazardous pesticides followed but lagged substantially the research that had demonstrated their consequences. in the philippines, advocacy by civil society actors played a major role in securing the change in policy, but only after the end of the marcos dictatorship, in a political climate in which rural interests had somewhat greater weight (loevinsohn and rola 1998). regulation was also insufficient on its own to prevent misuse. research institutions responded to the pest and pesticide crisis by developing integrated pest management (ipm) approaches. these aimed to give farmers a number of other control options with pesticides seen as a last resort - to be judiciously and safely employed only when justified. new pedagogical approaches were found to be necessary to impart the skills and understanding needed to effectively use ipm. over a 10 year period in the philippines and indonesia, the farmer field school was developed, privileging experiential learning (pontius et al. 2002). in weekly sessions over a season, some 25 farmers closely followed the development of a rice crop. typically, they would observe spiders, to which few had previously paid much attention, hunt brown planthoppers and other insects. they saw both pests and predators dead on the water after the crop was sprayed. and they found that when rice leaves were cut back by 50% early in the crop's development, simulating the damage caused by defoliating pests, there was often no discernable impact on the final yield. follow-up evaluations commonly found large reductions in pesticide use and often a small but significant increase in yield (kenmore 1996). through similar methods, the farmer field school enabled farmers to understand better the role of the different plant nutrients and to make more effective use of fertility-enhancing measures. the farmer field school approach has been used in other developing regions and has been adapted to other farming systems than intensive rice cultivation. the range of management skills addressed has also been extended beyond pest and crop management to include, for example, the linkages between agricultural practices and the breeding of insect vectors of human diseases. community ipm is a further evolution of the approach that aims at securing a self-sustaining institutional base for continued farmer learning about the complex systems of which they are a part. a number of significant features of the innovation system that has underlain the evolution of rice crop management can be discerned: * critical innovations have been contributed by actors at different levels. for instance, entomological and agro-ecological studies conducted by national and international researchers in the philippines and indonesia informed the curriculum of the farmer field school while adult education approaches contributed by ngos in indonesia shaped its pedagogical process.
Who supported this research with grants?
this research was supported by grants from the international arid lands consortium (96r-08) and the national science foundation (dissertation improvement grant
Who provided laboratory space and logistical research?
we thank the desert research institute (reno, nev.) for providing laboratory space and logistical support
Who provided the climate data?
climate data were provided by the western regional climate center (reno, nev.) and the utah climate center (logan, utah
acknowledgements this research was supported by grants from the international arid lands consortium (96r-08) and the national science foundation (dissertation improvement grant, ibn9800932). we thank the desert research institute (reno, nev.) for providing laboratory space and logistical support. we are particularly indebted to j.t. ball, j.s. coleman, k.l. griffin, and l. piehl of dri for their efforts on our behalf. climate data were provided by the western regional climate center (reno, nev.) and the utah climate center (logan, utah). this manuscript was improved by comments from c.m. caruso, w.t. pockman, three anonymous reviewers, and members of the physiological ecology group at the university of illinois.
What are the possible consequences of low distributional overlap?
low distributional overlap, makes the networks species belong to more robust to climate change because species are unlikely to be strongly associated with the distribution of other species in the network
Do species always follow a connection pattern?
in other words, while most species display low connectance or overlap with other species, some species do have a high degree of connectance, thus supporting the hypothesis that strong interdependencies exist between species
When it comes to species responses to climate change, should the general properties of interactions between species be analyzed?
the general properties of interaction networks must be examined in order to anticipate which species would exert greater influence on the others and which would be more dependent on linkages with other species in the network
8-ev or low distributional overlap, makes the networks species belong to more robust to climate change because species are unlikely to be strongly associated with the distribution of other species in the network. it also indicates that while projections assuming individualistic responses of species to climate change are warranted for most cases, the general properties of interaction networks must be examined in order to anticipate which species would exert greater influence on the others and which would be more dependent on linkages with other species in the network. in other words, while most species display low connectance or overlap with other species, some species do have a high degree of connectance, thus supporting the hypothesis that strong interdependencies exist between species (but see the cautionary note below). our framework provides one way to begin exploring the consequences of climate change on
Is there any correlation between vegetation change & GHG feedbacks to climate?
several global correlations link vegetation change with ghg feedbacks to climate
Does the distribution of Earth's biomes correlate with climate?
the distribution of earth's biomes correlates with climate
What kind of relationships support  the expectation that significant changes in climate will lead to shifts in vegetation?
aligning with this pattern, there are differences in net primary production, rooting depth, and the depth distribution of soil organic carbon across biomes or principle life forms (56-58). these relationships support the expectation that significant changes in climate will lead to shifts in vegetation and that vegetation change will feed back to the climate via ecosystem changes in carbon balance and other mechanisms
several global correlations link vegetation change with ghg feedbacks to climate. the distribution of earth's biomes correlates with climate.thiscorrelationformsthebasisofthe "climate envelope" approach to understanding and predicting biome distribution. aligning with this pattern, there are differences in net primary production, rooting depth, and the depth distribution of soil organic carbon across biomes or principle life forms (56-58). these relationships support the expectation that significant changes in climate will lead to shifts in vegetation and that vegetation change will feed back to the climate via ecosystem changes in carbon balance and other mechanisms. for biome distributions to shift, organisms must migrate, or minor species within ecosystems must become vegetation dominants. comprehensive reviews have assembled strong evidence causally linking climate change and the shift of many species to higher latitudes and/or altitudes, as well as changes
What else do we need to look at when putting climate change plans in place?
second, we need to understand how values and ideologies translate into the activities and institutions that characterize the political economy of climate change resilience10,11. for example, resilience
applying the concept of resilience to climate change adaptation raises complex challenges. climate change is not exclusively an environmental problem that can be addressed purely in scientific, managerial or technical ways. climate change is also crucially a conundrum of politics and justice, with unequal contributions to the problem globally, disproportionate impacts on future generations, marginalized groups and poorer citizens (whose poverty may itself be the result of historical inequities) and asymmetries in decision-making power to determine appropriate responses6. the concept of resilience requires strengthening in three main ways. first, we need to recognize its contested nature. when considering resilience as an 'end', it cannot be assumed that there is consensus around the nature of 'desired states'. resilience is contingent on social values regarding what we deem important and how we ought to allocate resources to foster it7. people may be perpetually locked into resilient but undesirable states of poverty and marginality. instead, we need to ask, "resilience of what type, and for whom?" and then consider who decides, and on the basis of what value systems8,9. second, we need to understand how values and ideologies translate into the activities and institutions that characterize the political economy of climate change resilience10,11. for example, resilience
Which are two of the most conspicuous components of current global change?
climatic warming and land-use modifications, two of the most conspicuous components of current global change (vitousek, 1994
What's their potential?
have the potential to profoundly change the distribution and growth of tree populations (brubaker, 1986
How do these two components operate?
these two components are likely to operate as concomitant stressors on forest ecosystems, making it difficult to disentangle their separate impacts
climatic warming and land-use modifications, two of the most conspicuous components of current global change (vitousek, 1994), have the potential to profoundly change the distribution and growth of tree populations (brubaker, 1986). these two components are likely to operate as concomitant stressors on forest ecosystems, making it difficult to disentangle their separate impacts. both components influence the distribution of mountain forests in the mediterranean basin, since land-use changes during the last century have shaped forest structure and climatic warming is severely affecting the growth of tree species, especially those that are highly sensitive to water stress (grove rackham, 2001; andreu
How much money is being directed to the regulation of emissions trading schemes around the globe?
while many hundreds of millions of dollars are being invested in setting up emissions trading schemes all over the world (the uk government alone has spent uk ps215 million on its trial trading scheme), virtually no resources are being channeled into their regulation
Is there any risk of corporate fraud in emissions markets?
opportunities for fraud abound as the poorly regulated emissions markets develop
Has the government taken action to curb fraud in emissions markets?
this was only highlighted by the independent work of the ends service inasmuch as no government monitoring of the scheme revealed these instances of fraud. no subsequent action was taken by the government to respond to these revelations
while many hundreds of millions of dollars are being invested in setting up emissions trading schemes all over the world (the uk government alone has spent uk ps215 million on its trial trading scheme), virtually no resources are being channeled into their regulation. this imbalance can only lead to an emissions market dangerously reliant upon the integrity of corporations to file accurate reports of emissions levels, and reductions. in practice, corporations such as pricewaterhousecoopers are acting as both accountants for and consultants to polluting firms, and as verifiers of emission reduction projects. some entrepreneurial firms such as ch2m hill and icf consulting are also offering consultancy and brokerage as well as verification services. these potential conflicts of interest were at the heart of scandals relating to enron and arthur andersen, who were both pioneers in emissions trading. opportunities for fraud abound as the poorly regulated emissions markets develop. this is inevitable in the laissez-faire environment in which emissions trading is conducted. in the first year of the uk's trial emissions trading scheme in 2002, environmental data services (ends) exposed the main corporations involved in the scheme as having defrauded the system. they found that three chemical 4 heidi bachram corporations had been given over ps93 million in "incentives" by the uk government for their combined commitments to reduce pollution by participating in the voluntary trading scheme. however, the corporations had already achieved their promised reductions under separate compulsory eu-wide regulations. ends estimated that one corporation, dupont, could make a further ps7 million from the market value of the "carbon" credits generated.9therefore the corporations had received millions of uk taxpayers' money for doing nothing. this was only highlighted by the independent work of the ends service inasmuch as no government monitoring of the scheme revealed these instances of fraud. no subsequent action was taken by the government to respond to these revelations.
What can fellow workers see?
fellow workers can see untidiness, wall charts or flip boards that are being discussed in heated meetings
What did t5he famous engineering firm do?
this caused a famous engineering firm to replace the lower half of the glass windows on their new hq building with frosted glass - no one had thought about this at the design stage
What did the excessive daylight and glare do?
the excessive daylight and glare make it difficult to read computer monitors
loss of privacy: fellow workers can see untidiness, wall charts or flip boards that are being discussed in heated meetings. <s121>* the difficulty of arranging furniture against glazed walls; for instance, desks placed against glass are impossible to use by women who wear skirts. this caused a famous engineering firm to replace the lower half of the glass windows on their new hq building with frosted glass - no one had thought about this at the design stage! <s121>* the excessive daylight and glare make it difficult to read computer monitors. engineers cite the fact that some monitors are now so bright they can be seen in full daylight, but at what cost in energy and eye strain? glare is also the reason why so many highly glazed buildings have their blinds full down and all the lights on, making the indoor conditions poor and energy use in them expensive. these types of ostensibly trivial gripes are the sorts of factors that can make the difference between being happy at work and not. many attempts have been made to reduce internal temperatures of failing buildings such as the national library in paris, designed in the 1980s by architect dominique perrault. this grand monument eventually cost the french people us 1.3 billion, and an undue amount of trouble. the four glass towers contain more than one design flaw. for example, it was realized too late that a library built from transparent glass would provide little protection for the books from sunlight; and that in fact, excessive sunlight would actually overheat the towers (and pose a risk of turning them into blazing infernos!). to remedy this, the architect specified timber shutters to line the whole of the four towers to be made from top-grade mahogany from the brazilian rainforests. in addition, the glass design failed to account for condensation, another threat to delicate books. these issues were remedied by the architect only after the construction had been started, and at considerable additional expense to the french public. 22 it is difficult to think of a modern ' monument ' that does not suffer from similar problems, although the british library, fortunately, was designed sensibly to avoid such foolish mistakes. but there is a range of other well-known problems with ' shiny ' and overglazed buildings, and some of these are illustrated in boxes 11.1 and 11.2 these examples have been contributed by, among others, members of the american society of building science educators (sbse), teachers of environmental science in us schools of architecture. 23 collectively they show that tight, thin, lightweight and overglazed buildings are a chronic problem today - and air conditioning can never be a solution to all their problems.
What does (UNFCCC) stands for?
the united nations framework convention on climate change
What is the commitment of developed countries?
to assist developing countries that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change in meeting costs of adaptation to those adverse effects" (article 4.4
What concerns does this paper outlines?
this paper outlines concerns about recent and proposed attempts to "measure" vulnerability so as to arrive at a ranking of "particularly vulnerable" countries, and thus to prioritise resource allocations for adaptation
the united nations framework convention on climate change (unfccc) commits developed countries "to assist developing countries that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change in meeting costs of adaptation to those adverse effects" (article 4.4). ever since the convention was agreed in 1992, the question has arisen of what it means to be "particularly vulnerable", and how it is decided which countries fall into this category. one would not normally expect that a country prefers to be seen as "particularly vulnerable" to the adverse effects of climate change, but a country that is classified that way would be eligible for additional financial support for adaptation. there is therefore an overt political dimension to what appears to be a purely academic question. this paper outlines concerns about recent and proposed attempts to "measure" vulnerability so as to arrive at a ranking of "particularly vulnerable" countries, and thus to prioritise resource allocations for adaptation. it summarises the ambiguous interpretations of the phrase "particularly vulnerable" in the convention and the negotiations, and presents selected examples relevant to climate policy to illustrate the political challenge of developing indices. first, however, it introduces the concept of vulnerability as one that is poorly defined, has no agreed metric and requires normative input for its assessment.
Biases in mean and maximum temperatures are consistent with what?
biases in mean and maximum temperatures are consistent with biases in precipitation
What region are negative (positive) biases found?
negative (positive) biases are found over regions where rainfall is overestimated (underestimated
A common factor with other regional modelling efforts over different regions of the world is?
the warm biases in summer frequently occur in association with too little precipitation and soils too dry (moberg and jones 2004 
biases in mean and maximum temperatures are consistent with biases in precipitation, negative (positive) biases are found over regions where rainfall is overestimated (underestimated). moreover, there is a good agreement between biases in wet day frequency and biases in minimum temperature. a common factor with other regional modelling efforts over different regions of the world is that the warm biases in summer frequently occur in association with too little precipitation and soils too dry (moberg and jones 2004 ). deficient precipitation may be associated with soils too dry and low evaporation rates, which enhances the warming of the near-surface air temperatures. while some of the deficiencies in the regional model simulation are strongly linked to deficiencies in the boundary conditions, some of the biases in temperature and precipitation discussed here were also reported in a previous study in which mm5 was driven by reanalysis. mene'ndez et al. 2004 reported deficiencies in the simulated surface air temperature and precipitation over northern argentina, paraguay and southern brazil as well, thus, under ''perfect'' boundary conditions, the regional model itself also fails in reproducing some characteristics of the observed climate. similar deficiencies in other modelling studies in south america are found in the literature. for instance, misra et al. 2003 also found strong underestimation of summer rainfall over la plata basin and overestimation over southeastern brazil. they also found a strong overestimation of surface temperature over subtropical south america. 5 summary and conclusions this study presents the results from a regional climate simulation of the present-day climate, corresponding to the
What is one of the major challenges?
a major technological challenge is to develop new crops to withstand higher temperatures
What is one of the cons of industrialised and intensive agricultural production?
although industrialised and intensive agricultural production has helped to boost food output, it has also undermined the integrity of ecosystems by, for example, impairing nutrient cycling in soils, overusing pesticides, and disrupting natural pollination
the technological challenge in this area is to ensure food security mainly by environmentally friendly ways of increasing food availability. future temperature rises might have an especially strong eff ect in tropical regions because crops grown there are less resilient to changes in climate than those grown in non-tropical regions. a major technological challenge is to develop new crops to withstand higher temperatures.65 the key task, attuned to local culture and economy, is to fi nd ways of lessening adverse health risks from changes in food yield, quality, and accessibility. although industrialised and intensive agricultural production has helped to boost food output, it has also undermined the integrity of ecosystems by, for example, impairing nutrient cycling in soils, overusing pesticides, and disrupting natural pollination. such sustained high agricultural output has also depended on fossil fuel use to generate fertilisers. agricultural mismanagement can also result in salination and water-logging of soils, and in land degradation and soil erosion.132,133
What is a hazard zone?
e.g. coastal zones, steep slopes, floodplains, cities prone to heat waves; often based upon risk mapping
What does category two contain?
this category includes projects at moderate risk, including projects which may have some specific climate vulnerabilities
How will the grey area between Category one and two be established?
the development and testing phase of the routine risk screening classification could shed light on how to formally distinguish the two
the following risk categories could be defined: category 1: high risk: full climate risk assessment this "high risk" category contains projects that may have diverse and significant relationship to climate, including projects in sensitive sectors (e.g. agriculture, water; based upon country risk profile) projects in hazard zones (e.g. coastal zones, steep slopes, floodplains, cities prone to heat waves; often based upon risk mapping) projects related to livelihoods close to the margin of tolerance (coping range) and/or close to the economic margins of production. projects with long (physical and economic) life for category 1 projects, a full climate risk assessment would be required. category 2: partial or moderate risk: selective climate risk assessment this category includes projects at moderate risk, including projects which may have some specific climate vulnerabilities projects which potentially increase vulnerabilities external to the project. examples include education and health projects that might have water requirements or include construction in climate hazard areas, or roads and other infrastructure projects that might stimulate settlement expansion in climate risk areas for category 2 projects, a more restricted or selective climate risk assessment than for category 1 projects is appropriate. there is clearly a grey are between categories 1 and 2. the development and testing phase of the routine risk screening classification could shed light on how to formally distinguish the two. category 3: no/low risk: no assessment needed this category includes projects that are not affected in any significant way by climate, and not affecting external vulnerability. examples include projects in human rights or good governance. for category 3 projects, no climate risk assessment is normally necessary.
What distinctions can be obtained for BOD forms for most countries?
suspended solids <= 150 mg l the legislation from most countries makes no distinction between the bod forms, and considers for the discharge standards the values of total bod
In what community standards does the SS concentration in the effluent from facultative ponds comply usually with?
the ss concentration in the effluent from facultative ponds usually complies with the european community standards, although there can be occasional periods with values greater than those specified
Answer true or false: There is a reliable mathematical model prediction for calculating the suspended solids concentration in effluent from a facultative pond.
unfortunately, there is no mathematical model that gives a reliable prediction of the suspended solids concentration in the effluent from a facultative pond, because facultative ponds 523 of their great temporal variability as a function of the environmental conditions
suspended solids <= 150 mg l the legislation from most countries makes no distinction between the bod forms, and considers for the discharge standards the values of total bod. the ss concentration in the effluent from facultative ponds usually complies with the european community standards, although there can be occasional periods with values greater than those specified. unfortunately, there is no mathematical model that gives a reliable prediction of the suspended solids concentration in the effluent from a facultative pond, because facultative ponds 523 of their great temporal variability as a function of the environmental conditions. for design purposes, the estimation of the particulate bod may be based on effluent ss in the following range: ss effluent 60 to 100 mg l
What will determine the impact of climate change on fishing and coastal communities?
1) their climate change exposure, as some locations will be more affected more than others; (2) the sensitivity of climate change in terms of targeted species and the ecosystem on which fishers and communities depend; and (3) on the fishers and their communities' ability to adapt to change
Will more mobile fishers cope better?
by contrast, more mobile fishers with an ability to catch different species using alternative gears over a wide geographical area, and with the capacity to borrow and access credit so as to manage climate variability, will be better able to adapt
How will artisanal fishers cope?
artisanal fishers who are confined to harvesting in a very limited geographical area and who have few, if any, alternative sources of income are likely be the most vulnerable to climate change as they will have least ability to adapt
the consequences of climate change on fishing and coastal communities will be determined by: (1) their climate change exposure, as some locations will be more affected more than others; (2) the sensitivity of climate change in terms of targeted species and the ecosystem on which fishers and communities depend; and (3) on the fishers and their communities' ability to adapt to change. artisanal fishers who are confined to harvesting in a very limited geographical area and who have few, if any, alternative sources of income are likely be the most vulnerable to climate change as they will have least ability to adapt. by contrast, more mobile fishers with an ability to catch different species using alternative gears over a wide geographical area, and with the capacity to borrow and access credit so as to manage climate variability, will be better able to adapt. 5 5
What will the long-term financial impact of global warming if we continue to do little to nothing about it?
by 2100, when the stern report expects that the damage may be equal to between 5 and 25 per cent gdp, the 9 billion or more people will have been on this 2-3 per cent p.a. growth scenario for the century and hence will all be living at or above the current consumption patterns of the industrialized countries
Do the  moral judgements,etc and the sciencego hand in hand?
these discounting issues have been the subject of a long and distinguished literature. from the perspective of climate-change policy and in particular in crafting a post-kyoto framework, it is important to separate out those issues which turn on welfare judgements and moral philosophy, and those which are matters of scientific dispute and evidence of behaviour
Does it matter if we wait or should we do more then what we are already doing?
by using a sufficiently low time-preference rate over future utility, the balance can be tipped in favour of action now
the stern report has one more variable in deriving its result: that the discount rate to be used in marrying up the damage in the future to the costs now of mitigation should be low. this turns out to be needed because, if the discount rate were to reflect the evidence from current behaviour, the stern report calculations would indicate, even on its 1 per cent costs, that we should do little about climate change--since future people are going to be so much better off than us as a result of the compounding of 2-3 per cent economic growth for a century, and we currently discount their future utility at a positive (and significant) rate. by 2100, when the stern report expects that the damage may be equal to between 5 and 25 per cent gdp, the 9 billion or more people will have been on this 2-3 per cent p.a. growth scenario for the century and hence will all be living at or above the current consumption patterns of the industrialized countries. and in industrialized nations, people will be consuming at levels more than four times their current levels.29we should not now, on this basis, sacrifice some of our relative low levels of consumption to people in the future who will be much better off than we are now, just to avoid them being a little less than staggeringly better off than us. this compound gdp growth rate is one part of the calculation. but it is on the discounting of future utility where the stern report deviates from observed behaviour. by using a sufficiently low time-preference rate over future utility, the balance can be tipped in favour of action now. that is what the stern report does, and it has been challenged on at least two broad levels. first, following nordhaus (2007), there is little evidence that the sort of discounting practice the stern report advocates matches what we actually do. thus, the stern report's discount rate relies upon a moral argument. however, moral judgements are, of course, open to dispute, and moral philosophers disagree about the principle of strict equity, which gives the stern report its zero (or rather 0.1, reflecting extinction risk) time preference--either as a principle of equity itself, or because other non-equity considerations count, too. second, the 'fat tailers' argue that the real source of the claim that we should act now comes not from the discount rate, but rather from the possibility that the probability distribution of outcomes has a nasty sting in it--the 'fat tail', the low probability of a rapid and damaging climate change. weitzman (2007) leads this critique. these discounting issues have been the subject of a long and distinguished literature. from the perspective of climate-change policy and in particular in crafting a post-kyoto framework, it is important to separate out those issues which turn on welfare judgements and moral philosophy, and those which are matters of scientific dispute and evidence of behaviour. for
What is the importance of Ethanol (alcohol)?
the importance of ethanol (alcohol) is that it can be used to power petrol and diesel engine vehicles with minimal modification
What is the advantage of ethanol (alochol) over petrol. ?
it is a relatively clean fuel with a higher octane rating than petrol, but is less of a fire risk, and it can be produced anywhere plants can be grown. the burning of ethanol results in release of the carbon trapped by the plant, but this is far better than releasing the carbon formerly trapped in fossil fuels for millions of years
What is the computer chip of fuel system?
the importance of ethanol (alcohol) is that it can be used to power petrol and diesel engine vehicles with minimal modification - just a computer chip in the fuel system and a fuel line made out of slightly different materials
the importance of ethanol (alcohol) is that it can be used to power petrol and diesel engine vehicles with minimal modification - just a computer chip in the fuel system and a fuel line made out of slightly different materials. it is a relatively clean fuel with a higher octane rating than petrol, but is less of a fire risk, and it can be produced anywhere plants can be grown. the burning of ethanol results in release of the carbon trapped by the plant, but this is far better than releasing the carbon formerly trapped in fossil fuels for millions of years because it is a truly renewable form of energy, which can be regrown rapidly year on year, rather than being a finite resource like oil and gas. more free ebooks http://fast-file.blogspot.com
What is examined by this section?
this section examines what those broad changes mean for extreme weather events
In what has resulted the general increase in temperature?
the general increase in temperature has resulted in a rise in the number of hot days, and a decrease in the number of cold/frost days, for nearly all land areas
Are there reliable projections for phenomena?
there are no reliable projections for phenomena at even smaller scales, including thunderstorms, tornadoes, hailstorms and lightning
the previous section outlined the general characteristics and projections of global climate change. this section examines what those broad changes mean for extreme weather events. some changes in extreme weather have already been observed. the general increase in temperature has resulted in a rise in the number of hot days, and a decrease in the number of cold/frost days, for nearly all land areas. at mid and high northern latitudes, the observations also point up an increase in heavy precipitation events. in some regions, such as parts of africa and asia, the frequency and intensity of droughts have increased over the past few decades. these changes are consistent with a general intensification of the hydrological cycle. projections for the coming century show that the number of hot and very hot days will continue to rise, and that the number of cold and very cold days will continue to decrease over nearly all land areas. additionally, the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events are very likely to increase over many areas, and the return period of extreme rainfall events is projected to decline, resulting in more numerous floods and landslides. mid-continental areas will generally become dryer, which is likely to increase the risk of summer droughts and wild fires. table 1 provides an overview of such impacts. while changes in temperature extremes are generally quite certain, and in many areas, changes in heavy precipitation or the occurrence of droughts can also be projected with reasonable confidence, projections for relatively small-scale atmospheric phenomena, such as storms, are subject to greater uncertainty (see also section 6 ). there are no reliable projections for phenomena at even smaller scales, including thunderstorms, tornadoes, hailstorms and lightning. in all cases, questions remain as to what the projections mean with regard to local scale. climate models generally calculate the weather and the climate on grids of a few degrees latitude and longitude, or a couple of hundreds of kilometres across. while they perform relatively well in terms of modelling large patterns in the atmosphere, and incorporate all large-scale features of the earth's surface, like mountain ranges, they do not represent smaller-scale phenomena, such as differences in climate between two sides of a mountain. as a consequence, the general patterns obtained from climate models always have to be interpreted in the context of the local geography and meteorology. furthermore, all applications have to take account of uncertainties in the information. some of those are related to uncertainties in the climate models and future emissions, others to downscaling to the local scale, and still others to the lack of consistent data to verify the model at that local scale (this issue is particularly pressing in developing countries, where meteorological data collection has weakened in recent years). in the
What do Lecocq and Shalizi build their argument on?
lecocq and shalizi (2007) build their argument on an economic analysis
What does mapping adaptation situations with the framework then help to identify?
mapping adaptation situations with the framework then helps to identify barriers that might be addressed by successful rules and institutions
What are the barriers grouped along?
the barriers are grouped along the dimension of the operator and the means
there are different generic barriers to adaptation proposed in the literature (e.g. fussel 2007a). lecocq and shalizi (2007) build their argument on an economic analysis. another way is to derive barriers from process models of adaptation that are based on planning exercises in other fields of activity (arnell and delaney 2006; moser and ekstrom 2010). in a similar manner, we proceed by systematically combining the concepts introduced in the previous sections. by barriers to adaptation we understand sets of conditions that might hinder the implementation of specific adaptations. they are not necessarily absolute limits to adaptation (cf. adger et al. 2009), as conditions and available means might be changed by other (facilitating) adaptations. mapping adaptation situations with the framework then helps to identify barriers that might be addressed by successful rules and institutions. the barriers to adaptation presented below outline possible examples for such an analysis. the extent, to which one or more of the following barrier types apply in a specific case, is, of course, an empirical matter. in the following, the barriers are grouped along the dimension of the operator and the means. missing operator: when there is no operator, there is no adaptation. the simplest example for a generic barrier in this group is the ignorance of impacts by all involved actors. this might be due to the conditions as, e.g., limited problem recognition of potential operators, missing frames of reference, rigid social habits and normative standards that prohibit understanding of the underlying stimulus. this hinders adaptation, even though action is not constrained by limited available means. missing means: although there is an operator (e.g. an exposure unit) who perceives a need to act, the necessary means are not available. barriers in the group can be distinguished by the type of means that are missing, e.g. limited institutional capacity or budget constraints. this is crucial, in particular, in developing countries that are disproportionally exposed to climate change and already have limited capacities to cope with other severe stresses. in the worst case, failure to adapt due to unavailable means might result in poverty traps. another variant is when the legislative framework limits adaptation; that is, when motivated operators do not have the legal power to act. 12
What does fig 3a show?
a stretch of miami beach in 1926
What seems to be the reason for increasing damages?
today there is more potential for economic damage than in the past due to population growth and increased wealth (e.g., personal property
Where are the photos from?
the wendler collection, florida state archives
to explain the increase in damage it is therefore necessary to consider factors other than variability or change in climate. in particular, society has changed enormously during the period covered by figure 2. figure 3a and b show this dramatically. fig. 3a shows a stretch of miami beach in 1926. figure 3b shows another perspective of miami beach from recent years. the reason for increasing damages is apparent from the changes easily observable in these figures: today there is more potential for economic damage than in the past due to population growth and increased wealth (e.g., personal property). fig. 4a and 4b shows the increase in population along the gulf and atlantic coasts for 168 coastal counties from texas through maine (figure 4a). in 1990, the population of miami and ft. lauderdale (2 counties) figure 3a. miami beach, 1926. photo from the wendler collection, florida state archives. used with permission.
Why developing country are more vulnerable to climate change?
developing countries are particularly vulnerable to climate change because they depend heavily on agriculture, tend to be hot already, lack infrastructure to respond well to increased variability, and have limited capital to invest in innovative adaptations
How does agriculture directly affect global GHG emission?
agriculture directly accounts for 14% of global ghg emissions
How does climate change can affect agriculture?
climate change and climate policy will have potentially significant impacts on agriculture by shaping what products and practices are most suitable in each location
climate has obvious and direct effects on agricultural production. at a global scale, the reverse is also increasingly apparent. agricultural activity emits greenhouse gases (ghg) through use of fossil fuel-based inputs and equipment, livestock production, soil erosion, and land conversion and deforestation. agriculture directly accounts for 14% of global ghg emissions in co2 equivalents and indirectly accounts for an additional 17% of emissions when land use and conversion for crops and pasture are included in the calculations ipcc, 2007; world bank, 2009 ). accordingly, the climate change agenda has subsumed agricultural production as both a contributor to climate change and, through adjustment in practices, a potential mitigating force (e.g., khan et al., 2009 ). climate change and climate policy will have potentially significant impacts on agriculture by shaping what products and practices are most suitable in each location. we contribute to recent and related research (e.g., nelson, 2009; seo, 2010 by describing the potential role innovative agricultural practices and technologies can play in climate change mitigation and adaptation and asking: what policy and institutional changes would encourage the innovation and diffusion of these practices and technologies to developing countries? research and innovation have been central to agricultural policy for nearly two centuries, often with the goal of increasing output per unit of land, water, labor or other input. reducing negative environmental impacts and improving micronutrient density are more recent agricultural research objectives. with climate issues adding to this already challenging agenda, the need for agricultural innovation has never been more apparent. these climate concerns are both shaping research priorities and rekindling the impetus for investments in agricultural research howden et al., 2007 ). in the coming decades, the development and effective diffusion of new agricultural technologies will largely determine how and how well farmers mitigate and adapt to climate change. this adaptation and mitigation potential is nowhere more pronounced than in developing countries where agricultural productivity remains low; poverty, vulnerability and food insecurity remain high; and the direct effects of climate change are expected to be especially harsh. developing countries are particularly vulnerable to climate change because they depend heavily on agriculture, tend to be hot already, lack infrastructure to respond well to increased variability, and have limited capital to invest in innovative adaptations (see barrios et al., 2008 ). to wit, whereas the stern report stern,
What is the box of University of Washington Seattle?
stephen m. gardiner department of philosophy 345 savery, box 353350 university of washington seattle, wa 98195, usa email: smgard@u.washington.edu
What does the climate change involve?
climate change involves the convergence of a set of global, intergenerational and theoretical problems
What does the storm make us vulnerable to?
for the storm makes us extremely vulnerable to moral corruption
stephen m. gardiner department of philosophy 345 savery, box 353350 university of washington seattle, wa 98195, usa email: smgard@u.washington.edu the peculiar features of the climate change problem pose substantial obstacles to our ability to make the hard choices necessary to address it. climate change involves the convergence of a set of global, intergenerational and theoretical problems. this convergence justifies calling it a `perfect moral storm'. one consequence of this storm is that, even if the other difficult ethical questions surrounding climate change could be answered, we might still find it difficult to act. for the storm makes us extremely vulnerable to moral corruption. key words global warming, tragedy of the commons, game theory, global environment
What has been significant achievement of feminism?
a significant achievement of feminism has been to draw attention to what adrienne rich (1980) called 'compulsory heterosexuality
who are the women who are defined through compulsory heterosexuality?
those seen by others and by themselves as 'single
what kind of women group this article focuses on ?
in this article we focus on a group of women who have been somewhat neglected in feminist research
a significant achievement of feminism has been to draw attention to what adrienne rich (1980) called 'compulsory heterosexuality'. what seems to be compulsory is not just heterosexuality as such but long-term partnerships with men within a marriage or similar situation (rosa, 1994). women's lives, their experiences and their relationships have evolved in the shadow of this powerful but often tacit set of regulations about appropriate forms of desire and intimate partnership. in this article we focus on a group of women who have been somewhat neglected in feminist research. these are women who are defined through compulsory heterosexuality: those seen by others and by themselves as 'single'. we report some empirical findings from an interview study and use critical discursive psychology (billig, 1991; edley, 2001; wetherell, 1998) to develop a feminist perspective on 'singleness'. one of the main ways in which normative prescriptions such as compulsory heterosexuality operate is through the construction and policing of various forms of 'otherness'. those who lack 'rightness' help define what is 'right'. some modes of living become accountable while others remain unexceptional and taken for granted. our interest in women defined as single began with the commonplace observation that whereas married women or women in long-term partnerships with men are rarely asked to
Which case is the carbon content and resulting CO2 emissions are fixed numbers?
for natural gas, fuel oil, and gasoline
What model solves for electricity market equilibria accounting ?
the haiku model
to understand how household expenditures would be affected by climate policy, we use the estimate of the embodied co2 content of expenditures and the incremental change in expenditures that would result from a price on co2 emissions. for natural gas, fuel oil, and gasoline, the carbon content and resulting co2 emissions are fixed numbers. for electricity, the effect of climate policy is more complicated. the haiku model solves for electricity market equilibria accounting for price-sensitive demand, electricity transmission between regions and changes in electricity supply, including changes in capacity investment and retirement over a 25year horizon and system operation for three seasons of the year (spring and fall are combined) and four times of day. the model solves for 21 regions of the country, which are mapped into the 11 regions in this analysis. the model indicates that changes in electricity prices and expenditures differ significantly by region (see table 2).
What interesting alternative in relation to UASB reactors?
is to waste the sludge from different heights of the reactor, such as from the bottom (sludge bed) and from half-height of the digestion compartment (sludge blanket
What the solids accumulation rate?
ccumulation rate depends essentially on the type of effluent being treated
An yield coefficient has been usually adopted ranging from?
from 0.10 to 0.20 kgtss per kgcod applied to the system (see chapter 27
the accumulation of biological solids occurs in anaerobic reactors after some months of continuous operation. the solids accumulation rate depends essentially on the type of effluent being treated, being higher when the influent wastewater presents a high concentration of suspended solids, especially non-biodegradable ones. the accumulation of solids is also due to the presence of calcium carbonate or other mineral precipitates, besides the biomass production itself. when the accumulation of solids other than for bacterial growth prevails, it can be reduced by a pre-treatment (coagulation, flocculation, sedimentation). the accumulation of biomass depends essentially on the chemical composition of the wastewater, being higher for those with high carbohydrate concentrations. (a) production of excess sludge and choice of the wastage point to evaluate the amount of excess sludge produced in uasb reactors treating domestic sewage, an yield coefficient has been usually adopted ranging from 0.10 to 0.20 kgtss per kgcod applied to the system (see chapter 27). in the case of reactor start-ups without seed sludge, the wastage of excess sludge should not be necessary during the initial months of operation of the reactor. when the wastage is necessary in the case of uasb reactors, it should be done preferentiallyintheupperpartofthesludgebed(lessdense,moreflocculentsludge, usually with lower specific methanogenic activity). however, attention should be given to the fact that the wastage of this lower concentration sludge will demand the removal of a larger sludge volume, for a given mass to be wasted, directly implying a larger area for the drying beds or a larger dewatering equipment. an interesting alternative in relation to uasb reactors is to waste the sludge from different heights of the reactor, such as from the bottom (sludge bed) and from half-height of the digestion compartment (sludge blanket). greater benefits can then be achieved than from the wastage from just a single height:
New Caledonia is a territory of what country?
new caledonia is a french overseas territory
What is the climate in New Caledonia?
its climate is tropical
How big is New Caledonia?
this archipelago of 18,575 square kilometres
new caledonia is a french overseas territory located in the subregion of melanesia in the southwest pacific, about 1,200 kilometres east of australia and 1,500 kilometres northwest of new zealand. it lies astride the tropic of capricorn, between 19 u and 23 u south latitude. its climate is tropical. this archipelago of 18,575 square kilometres is made up of a main mountainous island elongated northwest-southeast 400 kilometres in length and 50-70 kilometres wide, the loyalty islands (mare, lifou, and ouvea), and several smaller islands (e.g. isle of pines). the population was estimated in january 2009 to be 245,580 approximately half of inhabitants are concentrated in the southeast region of the main island around noumea, the capital. a. aegypti is the only mosquito vector of dengue in new caledonia. the two others vectors of dengue present in the pacific region, a. albopictus and a. polynesiensis have never been detected in this archipelago [38-40]. in noumea, most of a. aegypti breeding sites are outdoors and therefore rainfall dependent.
Describe the regression theory?
resilience theory and research is largely drawn from clinical psychology's work with adolescent children that have succeeded despite great adversity (masten, 2001; masten reed, 2002). resilience is often characterized by positive coping and adaptation in the face of significant adversity or risk (masten reed, 2002
Tell me about the psychological potential of Maston Reid?
as adapted to the workplace, resiliency has been defined as the ''positive psychological capacity to rebound, to 'bounce back' from adversity, uncertainty, conflict, failure, or even positive change, progress and increased responsibility'' (luthans, 2002a, p. 702). therefore, resilience can be characterized by coping responses not only to adverse events, but also to extreme positive events as well
Give examples of regression?
as with hope, to date research on resilience has been mainly limited to clinical and positive psychology. however, similar to the focus on hope, preliminary research has begun to examine the impact of resiliency in the workplace. for example, a significant relationship was found between the resiliency of chinese factory workers undergoing significant change and transformation and their supervisory rated performance (luthans et al., 2005). resiliency has also been found to be related to work attitudes of satisfaction, happiness, and commitment (youssef luthans, 2007
resilience theory and research is largely drawn from clinical psychology's work with adolescent children that have succeeded despite great adversity (masten, 2001; masten reed, 2002). resilience is often characterized by positive coping and adaptation in the face of significant adversity or risk (masten reed, 2002). as adapted to the workplace, resiliency has been defined as the ''positive psychological capacity to rebound, to 'bounce back' from adversity, uncertainty, conflict, failure, or even positive change, progress and increased responsibility'' (luthans, 2002a, p. 702). therefore, resilience can be characterized by coping responses not only to adverse events, but also to extreme positive events as well. as with hope, to date research on resilience has been mainly limited to clinical and positive psychology. however, similar to the focus on hope, preliminary research has begun to examine the impact of resiliency in the workplace. for example, a significant relationship was found between the resiliency of chinese factory workers undergoing significant change and transformation and their supervisory rated performance (luthans et al., 2005). resiliency has also been found to be related to work attitudes of satisfaction, happiness, and commitment (youssef luthans, 2007).
Why is the AGWP for CO2 more complicated?
the agwp for co2 is more complicated, because its atmospheric response time (or lifetime of a perturbation) cannot be represented by a simple exponential decay
On what may the parameters used in calculating the AGWP dependent on?
note that the parameters used in calculating the agwp may be dependent on the choice of background state, but it is convention to use present-day conditions. in the early discussions of the gwp fisher et al., 1990b an infinite time horizon was chosen
What will be discussed in section 8 & 9?
this is of importance here as, when an infinite time horizon is adopted, the gwp is essentially the direct analogue of the ozone depletion potential which will be discussed in section 8 .9
the agwp for co2 is more complicated, because its atmospheric response time (or lifetime of a perturbation) cannot be represented by a simple exponential decay. the agwp for co2 used here is discussed in section 7 the agwp concept can easily be extended to include the efficacy of different forcings fuglestvedt et al., 2003 ), see section 5.2 note that the parameters used in calculating the agwp may be dependent on the choice of background state, but it is convention to use present-day conditions. in the early discussions of the gwp fisher et al., 1990b an infinite time horizon was chosen. in these circumstances, the gwp has an alternative, and perhaps more physical, interpretation, as the ratio of the equilibrium warming due to a sustained emission of a gas, compared to that due to the reference gas (e.g. shine et al., 2005b (at least when the efficacy for both gases is unity). this is of importance here as, when an infinite time horizon is adopted, the gwp is essentially the direct analogue of the ozone depletion potential which will be discussed in section 8 .9
What effect do inland waters, such as lakes, have on the global carbon cycle?
this synthesis demonstrates that the global annual emissions of carbon dioxide from inland waters to the atmosphere are similar in magnitude to the carbon dioxide uptake by the oceans and that the global burial of organic carbon in inland water sediments exceeds organic carbon sequestration on the ocean floor
How do human activities affect the role of inland waters in the global carbon cycle?
the role of inland waters in global carbon cycling and climate forcing may be changed by human activities, including construction of impoundments, which accumulate large amounts of carbon in sediments and emit large amounts of methane to the atmosphere
What emissions can be expected from lakes through the projected changing of global climate and carbon metabolism of inland waters
methane emissions are also expected from lakes on melting permafrost
we explore the role of lakes in carbon cycling and global climate, examine the mechanisms influencing carbon pools and transformations in lakes, and discuss how the metabolism of carbon in the inland waters is likely to change in response to climate. furthermore, we project changes as global climate change in the abundance and spatial distribution of lakes in the biosphere, and we revise the estimate for the global extent of carbon transformation in inland waters. this synthesis demonstrates that the global annual emissions of carbon dioxide from inland waters to the atmosphere are similar in magnitude to the carbon dioxide uptake by the oceans and that the global burial of organic carbon in inland water sediments exceeds organic carbon sequestration on the ocean floor. the role of inland waters in global carbon cycling and climate forcing may be changed by human activities, including construction of impoundments, which accumulate large amounts of carbon in sediments and emit large amounts of methane to the atmosphere. methane emissions are also expected from lakes on melting permafrost. the synthesis presented here indicates that (1) inland waters constitute a significant component of the global carbon cycle, (2) their contribution to this cycle has significantly changed as a result of human activities, and (3) they will continue to change in response to future climate change causing decreased as well as increased abundance of lakes as well as increases in the number of aquatic impoundments.
Which Section discusses the model, the updates included and the observational datasets used for model evaluation
section 2 discusses the model, the updates included and the observational datasets used for model evaluation
Which Section presents the changes in terms of simulated SEB and SMB for the full ice sheet, as well as the evaluation by comparison with observations
section 3 presents the changes in terms of simulated seb and smb for the full ice sheet, as well as the evaluation by comparison with observations
Which Section presents the specific changes and evaluation 10
section 4 presents the specific changes and evaluation 10
here, we discuss the effects of an update from racmo2.3 version p1 to version p2, which addresses the model challenges presented above. to assess whether this update improves the modelled climate of the ais, in terms of seb and smb, we revisit several of the evaluations done in previous studies. first, section 2 discusses the model, the updates included and the observational datasets used for model evaluation. section 3 presents the changes in terms of simulated seb and smb for the full ice sheet, as well as the evaluation by comparison with observations. section 4 presents the specific changes and evaluation 10
What are the three most readily motivated boundary constraints?
minimum norm', 'minimum slope', and 'minimum roughness
What closely reproduces the exact implementation of these constraints in the frequency domain?
the approximate implementation of the three most readily motivated boundary constraints ('minimum norm', 'minimum slope', and 'minimum roughness') closely reproduces the exact implementation of these constraints in the frequency domain
What does not indicate clearly nonstationary late behavior?
application of the same procedure to the cold-season nao index does not indicate clearly nonstationary late behavior
we provide an easily implemented smoothing routine that yields objective estimates of the low-frequency variability of potentially non-stationary climate time series. the approximate implementation of the three most readily motivated boundary constraints ('minimum norm', 'minimum slope', and 'minimum roughness') closely reproduces the exact implementation of these constraints in the frequency domain. applications of our approach to the nh annual mean temperature series demonstrates that an optimal 40 year smooth approaches the early 21st century boundary with a constant slope, suggestive of nonstationary behavior in the mean and a persistent positive trend late in the series. by contrast, application of the same procedure to the cold-season nao index does not indicate clearly nonstationary late behavior. the analysis provided here also serves as a cautionary note with regard to some recently published comparisons of alternative time-domain smoothing boundary constraints to climate time series. comparisons that are uninformed [e.g., soon et al. 2004] by objective evaluation criteria (e.g., mse), are unlikely to provide useful insights into the relative merits of alternative boundary constraints. we thus urge the careful consideration of such criteria in choosing boundary constraints in the smoothing of climate time series, and warn against false conclusions based on unobjective statistical smoothing approaches. acknowledgments. m.e.m. acknowledges support for this work by the nsf and noaa-sponsored earth systems history (esh) program (noaa award na16gp2913).
The differences between the 1xCO2 and 2xCO2 results are?
it is important to assess the statistical significance of differences between the 1xco2 and 2xco2 results in order to distinguish between actual climate change and internal climate variability
What is the Mann-Whitney U test ?
we use the mann-whitney u test in our analysis of statistical significance (see appendix). we find that the annual average temperature change is significant at 95% confidence levels over the entire region and major annual precipitation and snow differences are significant in areas of greatest change (not shown
The results of the research?
our results suggest that longer runs are better than multiple regional climate modeling runs forced in the manner used here. our results for the california region demonstrate the need to address regional climate change scenarios on monthly and shorter timescales and to apply a highresolution regional approach to studying climate change scenarios
it is important to assess the statistical significance of differences between the 1xco2 and 2xco2 results in order to distinguish between actual climate change and internal climate variability. we use the mann-whitney u test in our analysis of statistical significance (see appendix). we find that the annual average temperature change is significant at 95% confidence levels over the entire region and major annual precipitation and snow differences are significant in areas of greatest change (not shown). on a monthly basis, the major features of all of the results are significant at the 95% confidence level (e.g., figure 1). in the future, as regional climate modeling is applied more extensively to scenarios of future climate change, it will be important to be able to assess results across different models. to this end, we suggest that statistical testing such as outlined here be used routinely in regional climate modeling analyses. regarding the ensemble approach that we used in this study, we find small variability between the ensemble results. there is an order of magnitude greater temperature difference between different years of a run versus between years of ensembles. our results suggest that longer runs are better than multiple regional climate modeling runs forced in the manner used here. our results for the california region demonstrate the need to address regional climate change scenarios on monthly and shorter timescales and to apply a highresolution regional approach to studying climate change scenarios. applying this modeling approach to other regions is likely to reveal vulnerabilities to future climate change that are not evident currently.
After the early Holocene retreat of the Ross Ice Sheet, when did the Adelie Penguins recolonize the Ross Sea?
penguins did not recolonize the ross sea until ca. 8000 calendar years (cal yr) b.p., after the early holocene retreat of the ross ice sheet
What type of remains did the geology department at Purdue recover?
geology department, indiana university-purdue university indianapolis, 723 w. michigan street, room sl118, indianapolis, indiana 46202, usa well-preserved remains of bone, tissue, and eggshell of adelie penguin pygoscelis adeliae have been recovered from numerous abandoned colonies in the ross sea region, antarctica
What did the new radiocarbon dates performed by the team at Purdue indicate about the environment that existed between ca. 45,000 and 27,000 14C yr before present?
we completed 62 new radiocarbon dates on these remains, which now indicate that an open-water marine environment existed in the ross sea from ca. 45,000 to 27,000 14c yr before present (b.p.) and provide constraints for the timing of the last advance of the ross ice sheet
geology department, indiana university-purdue university indianapolis, 723 w. michigan street, room sl118, indianapolis, indiana 46202, usa well-preserved remains of bone, tissue, and eggshell of adelie penguin pygoscelis adeliae have been recovered from numerous abandoned colonies in the ross sea region, antarctica. radiocarbon dates on these remains provide an occupation history for this species ranging from hundreds to tens of thousands of years ago. we completed 62 new radiocarbon dates on these remains, which now indicate that an open-water marine environment existed in the ross sea from ca. 45,000 to 27,000 14c yr before present (b.p.) and provide constraints for the timing of the last advance of the ross ice sheet. penguins did not recolonize the ross sea until ca. 8000 calendar years (cal yr) b.p., after the early holocene retreat of the ross ice sheet. two subsequent periods of abandonment at 5000-4000 and 2000-1100 cal yr b.p. correlate with cooling episodes that caused unfavorable marine conditions for breeding penguins. most modern colonies were established only within the past 2000 yr. keywords: adelie penguin, abandoned colonies, occupation history, ross sea, ice sheet.
Which sites had high Adaptive Capacity?
sites in seychelles and mauritius all had high adaptive capacity
What did sites like the Mauritius fall into?
mauritian sites fell into the low environmental susceptibility, moderate adaptive capacity quadrant, where our framework suggests that a protectionist conservation policy, for example large marine protected areas, would meet conservation goals that local communities could cope with and potentially support
What do the findings suggest?
these findings suggest strategies at odds with current conservation action in these countries
sites in seychelles and mauritius all had high adaptive capacity, but the countries differed considerably in their susceptibility to coral bleaching. mauritian sites fell into the low environmental susceptibility, moderate adaptive capacity quadrant, where our framework suggests that a protectionist conservation policy, for example large marine protected areas, would meet conservation goals that local communities could cope with and potentially support. conversely, seychelles sites fell into the high environmental susceptibility, high adaptive capacity quadrant, suggesting a poor prognosis for their reefs, which will likely require active ecosystem management programs to recover from past coral bleaching episodes and prepare for future climatic change. these findings suggest strategies at odds with current conservation action in these countries. mauritius, where reef preservation would provide the greatest long-term benefits, protects only 8.5 km2, less than 1%, of its reefs, from fishing (the smallest area of any country we studied) (table 1). the seychelles, where reefs within and outside of parks have been, and we predict will continue to be, severely affected by climate-induced coral bleaching (graham et al. 2007), has embraced a preservationist approach and protects 255.7 km2, over 15%, of its reefs from fishing, the highest amount and proportion of the 5 countries (table 1). in higher adaptive capacity countries, economic development strategies that lessen dependence on coral reef resources will reduce the vulnerability of their economies and livelihoods to climate change. in mauritius and seychelles these strategies include tourism, offshore fisheries, and services based on information technology.
What does complexity of velocity vectors emphasizes?
the complexity of velocity vectors emphasizes that individual organisms in different locations experience different climate forcings, and that the location and interval over which biotic responses are observed should influence our expectation of the direction and magnitude of potential response
What causes  taxonomic variability in species responses to climate change?
our observations of divergent vectors between temperature and water balance could result in taxonomic variability in species responses to climate change and potential asynchrony in species interactions (parmesan, 2006
What is the  use of climate velocity conservation science?
beyond global change studies, the use of climate velocity has potential utility in conservation science including identifying climatic refugia, prioritizing protected areas, and assisted migration planning
our analysis paints a complex picture of the climate in the contiguous us during the 20th century; one in which velocity vectors vary regionally, show variable and opposing directions among the variables considered, and shift direction through time. the complexity of velocity vectors emphasizes that individual organisms in different locations experience different climate forcings, and that the location and interval over which biotic responses are observed should influence our expectation of the direction and magnitude of potential response. in addition, given that limiting climatic factors vary among taxa, our observations of divergent vectors between temperature and water balance could result in taxonomic variability in species responses to climate change and potential asynchrony in species interactions (parmesan, 2006). the analysis presented does not provide a direct evaluation of 20th century climate change impacts for individual taxa, but instead provides a geographic assessment of the climate forcings that organisms have experienced during the study period. accordingly, additional research is warranted to assess whether climate velocity of individual or multiple climate variables can be used to better characterize observed changes in phenology or range shifts for specific taxa, and to estimate climate velocity of water balance for the 21st century. beyond global change studies, the use of climate velocity has potential utility in conservation science including identifying climatic refugia, prioritizing protected areas, and assisted migration planning. in conclusion, we emphasize that moving away from viewing climate as simple monotonic changes in temperature is a necessary step in advancing our understanding of how species have and will respond to climate shifts.
How does this study refers?
this study differs from most others that examine organizational climate and performance in that it covers a wide range of climate components and records productivity in objective terms before and after the measurement of climate
How many aspects are examined?
of 17 aspects of company climate examined, eight were found to predict productivity in the following year, controlling for previous productivity, company size and industrial sector: supervisory support, concern for employee welfare, skill development, effort, innovation and flexibility, quality, performance feedback, and formalization
What does that longitudinal and controlled nature of the analyses suggest ?
the longitudinal and controlled nature of the analyses suggest that these associations may be viewed as causal; a company's subsequent productivity was influenced by the level of those eight aspects of its climate
this study differs from most others that examine organizational climate and performance in that it covers a wide range of climate components and records productivity in objective terms before and after the measurement of climate. of 17 aspects of company climate examined, eight were found to predict productivity in the following year, controlling for previous productivity, company size and industrial sector: supervisory support, concern for employee welfare, skill development, effort, innovation and flexibility, quality, performance feedback, and formalization. the longitudinal and controlled nature of the analyses suggest that these associations may be viewed as causal; a company's subsequent productivity was influenced by the level of those eight aspects of its climate.
What has the disaster risk management community increasingly adopted?
the disaster risk management community is increasingly adopting a more anticipatory and forward-looking approach, bringing it in-line with the longer-term perspective of the climate change community on future vulnerabilities
What do climate change adaptation and disaster risk management need to be linked to?
climate change adaptation and disaster risk management both need to be linked (mainstreamed) with sectoral activities and development processes
What have both communities developed?
both communities have developed a large range of analytical tools and methodologies based on risk management approaches to assess risk and vulnerability and to identify opportunities for action
(sperling and szekely, 2005 task force on climate change, vulnerable communities and adaptation, 2003 world bank et. al, 2003 iatf working group on climate change and disaster reduction, 2004 ): * both communities have developed a large range of analytical tools and methodologies based on risk management approaches to assess risk and vulnerability and to identify opportunities for action. * the disaster risk management community is increasingly adopting a more anticipatory and forward-looking approach, bringing it in-line with the longer-term perspective of the climate change community on future vulnerabilities. * climate change adaptation increasingly places emphasis on improving the capacity of governments and communities to address existing vulnerabilities to current climate variability and climatic extremes, brining it within the remit of the disaster risk management community. * for both communities poverty reduction is an essential component of reducing vulnerability to natural hazards and climate change because poverty is both a condition and determinant of vulnerability. * both communities increasingly recognise the importance of sustainable resource management and biodiversity for ecological resilience and livelihood security. * climate change adaptation and disaster risk management both need to be linked (mainstreamed) with sectoral activities and development processes.
Why did they adopt the utilitarian approach? To incorporate the aversion to inequalities in consumption that the appraiser endorses
the utilitarian approach is quite acceptable in the absence of risk, because the utility function can then be chosen, as suggested above, to embody the aversion to inequalities in consumption that the evaluator endorses
Because who else can utilitarian social welfare be adopted? By priority and egalitarian
formally, the utilitarian social welfare can then also be adopted by prioritarians and egalitarians who accept the property of subgroup separability that underlies the additive form of the criterion
What idea is it to respect preferences? It is much less convincing under uncertainty than in a risk-free context
the idea is that respecting preferences is much less compelling under uncertainty than in a risk-free context, because in the context of risk, by definition, individuals are not perfectly informed about the consequences of their decisions
so far we have adopted the utilitarian approach, which indeed dominates in the debate about discounting for the long run. the utilitarian approach is quite acceptable in the absence of risk, because the utility function can then be chosen, as suggested above, to embody the aversion to inequalities in consumption that the evaluator endorses. formally, the utilitarian social welfare can then also be adopted by prioritarians and egalitarians who accept the property of subgroup separability that underlies the additive form of the criterion. (subgroup separability means that the evaluation of a change affecting a subgroup of the population can ignore the consumption level of the unconcerned individuals and focus on the affected subgroup only. by an important theorem due to gorman and debreu, subgroup separability implies that the evaluation criterion can be represented by an additive function.) in the presence of risk, things are less easy. the coefficient of inequality aversion also becomes a coefficient of risk aversion if the utilitarian criterion is then applied as the sum of expected utilities (or equivalently, the expected sum of utilities). there is therefore a dilemma. either one respects the risk aversion of the population (assuming away a potential heterogeneity of risk preferences across individuals), which severely constrains the degree of inequality aversion, or one adopts a coefficient of inequality aversion on the basis of ethical principles and then potentially imposes on the population a degree of risk aversion that appears paternalist. this is a classical problem in social ethics (harsanyi 1955 viewed it as a key justification of utilitarianism), and it has been recently mentioned in the context of discounting by kaplow and weisbach (2011). fleurbaey (2010) proposed a compromise. the idea is that respecting preferences is much less compelling under uncertainty than in a risk-free context, because in the context of risk, by definition, individuals are not perfectly informed about the consequences of their decisions. in particular, respecting preferences under risk may even appear to betray informed preferences when the evaluator has information about the final distribution. suppose for instance that individuals are willing to take a risk but that it is known in advance that the only consequence of this risk is a widening of inequalities, without any overall gain. at the individual level the risk may appear attractive, but at the social level it is already known that many will be unlucky and that they actually act against their true interests when they are willing to take the risk. when making a decision under risk, each individual focuses on his own payoffs and ignores the correlation with other individuals. a social evaluator can take account of this correlation and forecast how many individuals will turn out to have acted against their ultimate interests. this observation leads to the conclusion that respecting risk preferences is not always necessary, but it also suggests that respecting risk preferences remains an attractive idea when there is perfect correlation between individuals, because in such a situation an evaluator cannot forecast if some of them are acting against their interests. fleurbaey (2010) shows that when the requirement to respect risk preferences is limited to the case of perfect correlation, other criteria than utilitarianism become acceptable, permitting a greater degree of inequality aversion. there is a theorem stipulating that, under minimal conditions of rationality under uncertainty, all such criteria must take the form of the expected value of the equally distributed equivalent (ede) utility,
Why Precipitation data are more difficult to hindcast?
precipitation data are more difficult to hindcast as precipitation patterns are more variable spatially
How Precipitation data influence the timing and amounts of nutrients delivered to lakes from lake catchments?
however, it is a key variable influencing in particular the timing and amounts of nutrients delivered to lakes from lake catchments (george et al. 2004) and can strongly influence changes in lake level (cf.kampf et al. 2012
How lake runoff is simulated?
study lakes need to be located very close to meteorological stations or precipitation data can be modelled at the catchment scale to simulate runoff
precipitation data are more difficult to hindcast as precipitation patterns are more variable spatially. however, it is a key variable influencing in particular the timing and amounts of nutrients delivered to lakes from lake catchments (george et al. 2004) and can strongly influence changes in lake level (cf.kampf et al. 2012). study lakes need to be located very close to meteorological stations or precipitation data can be modelled at the catchment scale to simulate runoff. for white lough (anderson et al ., 2012), the site is sufficiently close to the armagh observatory to enable the long record of precipitation from the observatory to be used as a direct record of precipitation for the lake. 16 16
What are the major two costs over the century?
we find that impacts of the hst and lst pathways on peak costs to be even more pronounced than the npv over the century
Compare the ratio of the maximum mitigation cost in HST pathways to the optimal case.
in the hst pathways the maximum mitigation cost increases on average by about 50% across the models compared to the optimal case (full range across models is between 3 to 110%, see fig. 5 
Where is the smallest impact of the pledge pathways on the mitigation cost exists?
the impact of the pledge pathways on the mitigation cost is the smallest in models that have the biggest flexibility to compensate high near term emissions through large contributions of negative emissions in the second half of the century (e.g., gcam).11
we find that impacts of the hst and lst pathways on peak costs to be even more pronounced than the npv over the century. in the hst pathways the maximum mitigation cost increases on average by about 50% across the models compared to the optimal case (full range across models is between 3 to 110%, see fig. 5 ). also in the lst scenarios, the peak mitigation costs are substantially higher than in the optimal cases (compare, e.g., figs. 4 b and 5 ). the pronounced increase in the peak costs occurs in most models between 2030 and 2050, i.e., the time-frame where hst and lst pathways need to achieve a fundamental and rapid transformation to reach the long-term target of 450 ppm. the impact of the pledge pathways on the mitigation cost is the smallest in models that have the biggest flexibility to compensate high near term emissions through large contributions of negative emissions in the second half of the century (e.g., gcam).11
How are SDMs validated?
most sdms of current distributions can be validated to some degree using independent data or by dividing the original dataset into training and testing data
How many of the species tested agreed with the model?
of the 40 species woodall and others 2009 tested, all but three showed trends that agreed with projections of our models
How are the tree models made?
they used a comparison of the biomass of larger trees 2.5 cm diameter breast height [dbh]) relative to density of seedlings 2.5 cm dbh) across each species' range of latitude to detect possible future trends in distribution
it is important to evaluate and validate the models as well as possible to enhance credibility and utility. most sdms of current distributions can be validated to some degree using independent data or by dividing the original dataset into training and testing data. a thorough review of such methods is found in franklin 2009 ). evaluation of models extrapolating into space or time is more difficult and more development of such methods is needed (elith and graham 2009 ). in certain instances, data may be available to add credence to models that extrapolate into the future. fortunately, studies conducted by woodall and others 2009 do just that for many of the tree models we have produced. they used a comparison of the biomass of larger trees 2.5 cm diameter breast height [dbh]) relative to density of seedlings 2.5 cm dbh) across each species' range of latitude to detect possible future trends in distribution. for many of the species, higher regeneration success was evident at the northern edge of their ranges. of the 40 species woodall and others 2009 tested, all but three showed trends that agreed with projections of our models. it is also important to retain historic inventory data so that future assessments of trends can be evaluated and multiple potential drivers can be teased apart.
According to the article, which country has the decentralized educational center?
in a system as decentralised as the swedish educational one
in a system as decentralised as the swedish educational one, the weak enforcement of democratic social goals leads to great variation in its implementation. however, the recent of the act against discrimination at school (2006: 67 act prohibiting discrimination and other degrading treatment of children and school students 2006 can be considered as important, by making educational institutions responsible for fulfilling democratic values in their organisation and expecting them to guarantee, in their practice, respect of everyone's human rights. on the other hand, evaluation of the goals of building a democratic organisation and environment for learning is not easy to standardise. we have to ask whether top-down control of these goals is at all possible, or even desirable. an organisation cannot be genuinely democratic through pure coercion; this indeed would be a paradoxical situation. where democratic values are 'forced' into an organisation without real understanding or authentic sharing of their meaning, the outcome will be a ritual and formal accomplishment only with the required goals, but with no substance and only a weak influence on educational practice. assessing the learning environment or the pupil? teachers are expected to assess their pupils' knowledge, competence and learning processes. they are not always familiar with assessments of quality of learning environments. these practices have not become routine in swedish primary schools. a motive that can explain a possible resistance among practitioners towards the issue of learning environments is the possible threat that the assessment of learning environments can represent for schools' reputations and teachers' self-concepts. many teachers are interested in developing the quality of the learning environment in their classroom, but some might feel anxious about how the results of the assessment would be used. in tightlycontrolled and accountable organisations, where the employees have few opportunities to participate and influence their organisation, there is a risk that the assessment's results could be used to compare and criticise teachers' performances in an unconstructive way. the disregard of educational and social psychology in educational research and teacher training programs, the resistance towards classroom climate issues can be nourished by a prevailing general disregard towards content related to educational psychology that is visible, at least in the swedish context. educational and social psychology probably had a greater place in teacher education previously, but it seems that these disciplines no longer occupy a central place in teacher training or in educational research today. sociological and critical perspectives, sociocultural analysis, policy and curriculum studies, discourse and text analysis, and gender issues occupy a more important place today both in teacher training and in educational research. various perspectives on education are certainly necessary and i am not arguing here for their irrelevance. the problem is that the challenging criticism of several post-modern authors towards psychology and scientific knowledge (e.g. foucault 1961 has resulted in the swedish educational field in a largely unnecessary and unjust attitude of suspicion towards scientific knowledge in general, and particularly towards educational psychology. although challenging criticisms always are stimulating and a basic condition of scientific development, the negative and prejudiced attitude towards scientific knowledge developed in other fields is not only unnecessary, but also it can be dangerous.
What's an indicator of climate change?
following cameron (2005) and viscusi and zeckhauser (2006), the perceived change in average future temperature was chosen as an indicator of climate change
What were supposed to indicate the respondents?
respondents were asked to indicate their best guess of temperature change in 2100 relative to the current year
The "best guess" refers to what?
best guess' referred to the most likely change in temperatures
following cameron (2005) and viscusi and zeckhauser (2006), the perceived change in average future temperature was chosen as an indicator of climate change. respondents were first shown a figure displaying average annual temperature in australia for the period of 1910 to 2007. they were then presented with a series of 32 different levels of possible changes in annual average 7 7 temperature ranging from minus five degrees to plus ten degrees centigrade. respondents were asked to indicate their best guess of temperature change in 2100 relative to the current year. 'best guess' referred to the most likely change in temperatures. respondents were then asked to indicate a range around their 'best guesses' in the form of high and low guesses where high guess measured the highest possible change and low guess referred to the lowest possible change in temperature.
What are some of the market responses to risk?
contract production, vertical integration, forward markets, private savings, household employment decisions, and weather derivatives are market responses to risk
What are the two main aspects of Crop Insurance?
one aspect of insurance is what is known in economics as "moral hazard." the existence of insurance reduces the incentive to undertake technological solutions to risks. a second aspect of insurance is that under a pure insurance program, the enrollee pays insurance premiums each year but over several years should expect to get back in loss payments no more than he or she paid
What will happen to the premiums for farmers if a climate change causes a drift toward more frequent disasters in an area?
if climate change causes a drift toward more frequent disasters in an area, the premiums for farmers in the area would have to be adjusted upward to maintain the program as a pure insurance program
risk management. climate variability and its potential increase necessarily focus attention on riskmanagement strategies. contract production, vertical integration, forward markets, private savings, household employment decisions, and weather derivatives are market responses to risk. these strategies are likely to evolve further, and farmers who are not adept at using them will have to become so. farmers can adopt technological solutions to risk--such as irrigation as insurance against weather damage or shorter maturing varieties against frost--but only if market conditions justify the investment. crop insurance is another response, for which the federal government now takes some responsibility. federal crop insurance contains a devilish public policy dilemma. one aspect of insurance is what is known in economics as "moral hazard." the existence of insurance reduces the incentive to undertake technological solutions to risks. a second aspect of insurance is that under a pure insurance program, the enrollee pays insurance premiums each year but over several years should expect to get back in loss payments no more than he or she paid. if the farmer can expect more, the insurance program also is a subsidy program. this situation may involve cross-subsidization among enrollees; the subsidizers then tend to drop out, however, or-- where federally managed--the entire program can run a deficit with tax dollar support. there is a risk, then, that the desire to create a federal insurance program that enrolls a large proportion of farmers will end up as largely a subsidy program. if climate change causes a drift toward more frequent disasters in an area, the premiums for farmers in the area would have to be adjusted upward to maintain the program as a pure insurance program. failure to adjust premiums ultimately could mean that insurance is paying out almost every year. a federal program would have difficulty, however, raising premiums substantially on areas that have suffered repeated disaster years. ultimately, crop insurance or a broader form of producer insurance cannot offer much protection if an area is drifting toward reduced viability.
What if financial resources, personnel and limited information are available regarding exposure and sensitivities to climate change? How do they make the decision?
if there are limited financial resources, personnel and information available as to the exposure and sensitivities to climate change, the decision making process may be abbreviated to an initial assessment
What is the key component for the initial assessment of the decision?
 a key component of the initial adaptation assessment is to describe in detail the policy context and have this reviewed by key stakeholders
to decide when, and also how, to adapt to climate change decision makers need to undertake a vulnerability assessment. if there are limited financial resources, personnel and information available as to the exposure and sensitivities to climate change, the decision making process may be abbreviated to an initial assessment. a key component of the initial adaptation assessment is to describe in detail the policy context and have this reviewed by key stakeholders. following this feedback, and either as part of existing management planning processes with stakeholders or as an additional activity, fisheries managers and stakeholders would work together in collaborative 'vulnerability and adaptation' workshops. these workshops would be an important step in building and supporting adaptation capacity and would seek to: (1) identify key vulnerabilities; (2) analyze existing strategies and tactics to respond to potential climate change impacts; and (3) prioritize actions to help bio-physical and socio-economic systems respond to the most significant impacts, as identified in the planning process.
On which year geo-referenced June Agricultural Survey of the U.S. Department of Agriculture held?
april 2005 we use the geo-referenced june agricultural survey of the u.s. department of agriculture to match values of individual farms in california
Describe about the survey?
april 2005 we use the geo-referenced june agricultural survey of the u.s. department of agriculture to match values of individual farms in california with a measure of water availability as mediated through irrigation districts, and degree days, a nonlinear transformation of temperature, controlling for other influences on value such as soil quality, to examine the potential effects of climate change on irrigated agriculture in california
Define about Water availability ?
water availability strongly capitalizes into farmland values. the predicted decrease in water availability in the latest climate change scenarios downscaled to california can therefore be expected to have a significant negative impact on the value of farmland
april 2005 we use the geo-referenced june agricultural survey of the u.s. department of agriculture to match values of individual farms in california with a measure of water availability as mediated through irrigation districts, and degree days, a nonlinear transformation of temperature, controlling for other influences on value such as soil quality, to examine the potential effects of climate change on irrigated agriculture in california. water availability strongly capitalizes into farmland values. the predicted decrease in water availability in the latest climate change scenarios downscaled to california can therefore be expected to have a significant negative impact on the value of farmland.
What term represented 8% of the response about the public's conception of climate change?
pollution' (8%) and environmental 'destruction' (4.9%) were fairly common responses - consistent with previous research on how the public conceive of climate change
What does the paragraph say about the current relationship between humans and nature?
the human--nature relationship is currently dysfunctional
Rather than as natural, how did people think of carbon?
far fewer thought about carbon as natural, abundant and benign (e.g., the basis of life; cited by 4 people) than as an anthropogenic cause of climate change, harmful and toxic
however, many responses were less technical or suggested moral or cultural framings (or social representations). in particular, 'pollution' (8%) and environmental 'destruction' (4.9%) were fairly common responses - consistent with previous research on how the public conceive of climate change (whitmarsh, 2009b) and the environment in general (e.g., douglas, 1992). in some cases, these framings implied some normative conception of how humans should relate to the natural environment and that the human--nature relationship is currently dysfunctional. typical moral framings include: 'a toxic substance, a polluting gas that clogs up the air and rips off the ozone layer' (p400) 'the irreversible impact humans have on planet' (p67) far fewer thought about carbon as natural, abundant and benign (e.g., the basis of life; cited by 4 people) than as an anthropogenic cause of climate change, harmful and toxic3.
What did the statistics confirmed?
nonetheless, these statistics confirm the considerable diversity among the gcms. the temperature patterns reflect the differential rates of warming between land and ocean, especially in cgcm2 and hadcm3
What is the diversity between the GCMs?
there is greater diversity between the gcms in the precipitation patterns; in many parts of the world the range includes both drying and moistening
What does the Table records?
this table also records the number of corrections required to keep values within the bounds of the physically possible, which did not exceed 1% for any variable
the inter-pattern differences are much greater between gcms than between sres emissions, so the table 5 summarises the former. the gcms agree on the sign of the change at this large scale, with the notable exception of precipitation in cgcm2. nonetheless, these statistics confirm the considerable diversity among the gcms. the temperature patterns reflect the differential rates of warming between land and ocean, especially in cgcm2 and hadcm3. there is greater diversity between the gcms in the precipitation patterns; in many parts of the world the range includes both drying and moistening. this table also records the number of corrections required to keep values within the bounds of the physically possible, which did not exceed 1% for any variable.
What will be estimated by using Bayesian approach?
using a bayesian approach, we fuse the uvic escm model with global observations to estimate background vertical ocean diffusivity kbg), climate sensitivity cs ), and the scaling parameter for the effects of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols asc
Which will be sensitive to assumption about the priors?
the kbg pdf is sensitive to the assumptions about the priors
What are the modes similar to Kbg?
the mode for kbg is similar to previous results obtained using oceanic tracers such as cfc11, temperature, and d14c as constraints
using a bayesian approach, we fuse the uvic escm model with global observations to estimate background vertical ocean diffusivity kbg), climate sensitivity cs ), and the scaling parameter for the effects of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols asc). our methodology incorporates the effects of kbg on 3d ocean dynamics. we use a gaussian process emulator to provide a fast surrogate for the climate model at arbitrary parameter combinations. the parameter estimates can be used to make climate projections using the uvic escm in future studies. the mode for kbg is similar to previous results obtained using oceanic tracers such as cfc11, temperature, and d14c as constraints. the kbg pdf is sensitive to the assumptions about the priors. if a uniform prior is used, then the results appear to show a bimodality, which is a potentially important result that might need further investigation. under the default assumptions of informative priors, the mode of climate sensitivity is 2.8degc, with the 95% credible interval from 1.8degc to 4.9degc. this mode is consistent with many previous studies but lower than reported by holden et al. [2010], who also use a 3d ocean model. as in previous studies, the upper tail of the cs pdf is sensitive to priors. the cs pdf depends critically on asc, with much higher climate sensitivities likely at high values of asc. the agreement with previous studies that use simpler climate
Define social injustice?
in addition, as we shall show, emissions trading is rife with controversy and the potential for exacerbating environmental and social injustice
Explain climate catastrophe?
the changes necessary to avert climate catastrophe are simple enough, namely, a switch away from fossil fuels and to renewable energy like solar and wind, along with a reduction in energy use generally
Define scope and gravity?
despite the scope and gravity of the dangers posed by greenhouse gases, and the major role of emissions trading in compounding them, this arrangement has not been seriously challenged in any international forum
in addition, as we shall show, emissions trading is rife with controversy and the potential for exacerbating environmental and social injustice. the changes necessary to avert climate catastrophe are simple enough, namely, a switch away from fossil fuels and to renewable energy like solar and wind, along with a reduction in energy use generally. instead, world leaders have taken ten years to agree to inadequate targets and the deeply flawed mechanism of emissions trading. although emissions trading is represented as part of the solution, it is actually a part of the problem itself. despite the scope and gravity of the dangers posed by greenhouse gases, and the major role of emissions trading in compounding them, this arrangement has not been seriously challenged in any international forum. the continuing acquiescence toward emissions trading is not an accident or bureaucratic oversight. the smooth
What the data analysis consist of
data analysis consisted of mixed qualitative and quantitative techniques to explore patterns in the livelihood data, coded thematic narratives, and interpretations of participatory and ranking exercises
How we can understood the coping dimension  to livelihoods stability
the coping dimension to livelihoods stability is understood to be the coping dimension of response to change and variability, and demonstrates the ability of people to retain basic livelihood functions while absorbing shocks, especially unpredictable climatic events
what you mean by maintaining livelihood stability during weather related disturbance
maintaining livelihood stability during weather-related disturbance is not about people avoiding their adaptation needs but part of the process of reframing future adaptive strategies and social institutions are important for these stability responses
fig. 2. location of research areas: area 1 mantsie, lehurutshe district, northwest province, south africa; area 2 khomele, dzanani district, limpopo province, south africa; area 3 mcitsheni, uthukela district, kwazulu natal province, south africa; area 4 nwadjahane, manjacaze district, gaza province, mozambique. groups, some of which had overlapping membership that facilitated triangulation of findings. the time spent in the villages, participatory farm visits, plus repeat visits to villages enabled further triangulation of findings. data analysis consisted of mixed qualitative and quantitative techniques to explore patterns in the livelihood data, coded thematic narratives, and interpretations of participatory and ranking exercises. such a mixed methods approach is seen as fundamental to challenging received wisdoms about the 'validity' and 'truth' associated with quantitative analyses and the 'soft' and 'subjective' accounts associated with qualitative analyses (philip 1998, valsiner 2000). research was discussed with, and documents collected from, district, province, and national level government, research institutes, and ngos. the coping dimension to livelihoods stability is understood to be the coping dimension of response to change and variability, and demonstrates the ability of people to retain basic livelihood functions while absorbing shocks, especially unpredictable climatic events. within a household, coping is characterized by different household members responding to different shocks over a short period, and in different ways (osbahr et al. 2008). we find similar diversified coping responses to weather-related disturbance across all the case studies, such as the selling of assets, reliance on social networks, petty trade, or temporary migration (table 2). stability corresponds to the idea of persistency in social-ecological systems, however, from a resilience perspective maintaining function may not always be desirable in the long-term when trying to manage changes to the wider social-ecological system. maintaining livelihood stability during weather-related disturbance is not about people avoiding their adaptation needs but part of the process of reframing future adaptive strategies and social institutions are important for these stability responses. in this section, we focus on understanding the informal institutions that facilitate coping responses across the different locations, essentially informal networks developed by the community without any direct role from the state. these informal networks are important for facilitating daily livelihood activities, including
Which one is more traditional statistical methods to model the distributions of species based on species occurrence data?
generalized linear models (glms) or generalized additive models (gams
which algorithm is more sophisticated machine-learning algorithms?
maxent
Name the tree-based algorithm.
boosted regression trees
several algorithms have been developed to model the distributions of species based on species occurrence data. more traditional statistical methods such as generalized linear models (glms) or generalized additive models (gams; ref. 52) require species absence (or pseudoabsence) as well as presence information, as do artificial neural networks (53) and genetic algorithms (garp; ref. 54). other algorithms have been developed for presence-only data, including simple envelope models such as domain (55) and bioclim (56), as well as more sophisticated machine-learning algorithms such as maxent (57). comparative studies have found a range of performance across algorithms and no single method emerges as ''best'' (58-60). for example, garp generally has high model sensitivity but also a high rate of false positives (59, 60), which may result in predictions that are spatially overinclusive, whereas domain (20) and tree-based approaches (59) tend to have high model specificity but also a high falsenegative rate, therefore tending to underpredict. model validations on independent datasets have suggested that some of the newer machine-learning (e.g., maxent) and tree-based (e.g., boosted regression trees) algorithms have the best overall performance, in terms of both sensitivity and specificity (58-61).
Is climate change increasing or decreasing?
climate change is intensifying the hydrologic cycle and is expected to increase the frequency of extreme wet and dry years
By what percent has the magnitude of deviations increased by?
the magnitude of these deviations increased to 60% for dry years and to 150% for wet years in arid regions (map 500 mm
How will this research benefit the world overall?
this will allow experiments to more realistically simulate extreme precipitation years and more accurately assess the ecological consequences
climate change is intensifying the hydrologic cycle and is expected to increase the frequency of extreme wet and dry years. beyond precipitation amount, extreme wet and dry years may differ in other ways, such as the number of precipitation events, event size, and the time between events. we assessed 1614 long-term (100 year) precipitation records from around the world to identify key attributes of precipitation regimes, besides amount, that distinguish statistically extreme wet from extreme dry years. in general, in regions where mean annual precipitation (map) exceeded 1000 mm, precipitation amounts in extreme wet and dry years differed from average years by 40% and 30%, respectively. the magnitude of these deviations increased to 60% for dry years and to 150% for wet years in arid regions (map 500 mm). extreme wet years were primarily distinguished from average and extreme dry years by the presence of multiple extreme (large) daily precipitation events (events 99th percentile of all events); these occurred twice as often in extreme wet years compared to average years. in contrast, these large precipitation events were rare in extreme dry years. less important for distinguishing extreme wet from dry years were mean event size and frequency, or the number of dry days between events. however, extreme dry years were distinguished from average years by an increase in the number of dry days between events. these precipitation regime attributes consistently differed between extreme wet and dry years across 12 major terrestrial ecoregions from around the world, from deserts to the tropics. thus, we recommend that climate change experiments and model simulations incorporate these differences in key precipitation regime attributes, as well as amount into treatments. this will allow experiments to more realistically simulate extreme precipitation years and more accurately assess the ecological consequences.
What is shown in the three sites?
all three sites show a fall in the holocene fire interval (2200-2000 years ago at francis and pas-de-fond, 3300 years ago at a la pessiere) followed by an increase c. 1300 years ago at francis and a la pessiere (fig. 5a
What happened when the three lakes were compared using a common equally spaced time resolution of 35 years?
when the three lakes were compared using a common equally spaced time resolution of 35 years, pas-de-fond seems to have experienced longer fire intervals in the last 500 years and therefore a decrease in the local fire
When happened the L. a la Pessiere the rate increase?
at l. a la pessiere, the rate increase is earlier (around 3500 years ago) and is followed by a decrease 1000 years ago
both lac francis and l. pas-de-fond show a rise in charcoal accumulation rate over the last 2000 years (fig. 3). at l. a la pessiere, the rate increase is earlier (around 3500 years ago) and is followed by a decrease 1000 years ago. the transformation of raw data from non-equally (fig. 3) to equally spaced time resolution (fig. 4) does not significantly modify these patterns, even if the transformation is based on a coarse deposition time of 35 years (fig. 4b). all three sites show a fall in the holocene fire interval (2200-2000 years ago at francis and pas-de-fond, 3300 years ago at a la pessiere) followed by an increase c. 1300 years ago at francis and a la pessiere (fig. 5a). when the three lakes were compared using a common equally spaced time resolution of 35 years, pas-de-fond seems to have experienced longer fire intervals in the last 500 years and therefore a decrease in the local fire
What was more confusing to the farmers?
what was more confusing to the farmers was that the area could simultaneously experience drought and excessive precipitation during the same season
What  the interviewed Agricultural Extension Officers and NGO staff indicated?
indicated that they have not been educating farmers about the changing climatic conditions and what the situation is likely to be in the future
What most farmers indicated?
most farmers indicated that the rain season used to begin in late october or early november and end as late as mid may, but the late 1990s onwards trend is that the rain season can start as late as mid december and end as early as mid march
what was more confusing to the farmers was that the area could simultaneously experience drought and excessive precipitation during the same season. the trend in precipitation, as observed by elderly farmers, was that their area was getting drier. a higher frequency of seasonal droughts or mid-season dry spells and late onset and early ending of the rain season evidenced increased desiccation of the murowa ward. most farmers indicated that the rain season used to begin in late october or early november and end as late as mid may, but the late 1990s onwards trend is that the rain season can start as late as mid december and end as early as mid march. with respect to temperature, farmers observed that they are on an increasing trend, as evidenced by the high rate at which surface water sources such as streams dry up and the wilting of crops after the occurrence of a precipitation event. the interviewed agricultural extension officers and ngo staff indicated that they have not been educating farmers about the changing climatic conditions and what the situation is likely to be in the future. they pointed out that they are at a loss as to what exactly should they tell the farmers since current knowledge and
The UNFCCC methodology consisted of estimating which four factors?
the unfccc methodology consisted of estimating: (i) the current global expenditure on conservation in the form of protected areas (pas), (ii) the shortfall in the pa network (pan), (iii) the level of additional expenditure needed for pas to be adequate for climate-change adaptation, and (iv) costing adaptation outside the protected area network
How much money was given by the UNFCCC for the cost of expanding and protecting terrestrial PAN areas so that they represent 10% of each country?
an estimate of $12-22 billion was given by unfccc for the cost of expanding and protecting terrestrial pan areas so that they represent 10% of each country, but this was excluded from the ultimate list of needed investment
The present study supports which conclusion?
the present study supports the conclusion of the background paper for the unfccc, which is that $65-80 billion reflects the range of probable adaptation costs for pan areas, including both terrestrial and marine environments
the unfccc methodology consisted of estimating: (i) the current global expenditure on conservation in the form of protected areas (pas), (ii) the shortfall in the pa network (pan), (iii) the level of additional expenditure needed for pas to be adequate for climate-change adaptation, and (iv) costing adaptation outside the protected area network. an estimate of $12-22 billion was given by unfccc for the cost of expanding and protecting terrestrial pan areas so that they represent 10% of each country, but this was excluded from the ultimate list of needed investment. the present study supports the conclusion of the background paper for the unfccc, which is that $65-80 billion reflects the range of probable adaptation costs for pan areas, including both terrestrial and marine environments. additionally, this study supports the conclusion in the same background paper that adaptation costs for non-protected (non-pan) areas should be included and could amount to about $290 billion, although these involve key assumptions and have a higher degree of uncertainty than estimates for some of the other fields. since the unfccc report on global costs of adaptation omitted the costs of protecting ecosystems and the services they can provide for human society, the present study concludes that this is an important source of under-estimation.
What is the age of the children who are the main victims of sanitation illness?
children under five are the main victims of sanitation-related illnesses, a
Is malnutrion  a health consequence of climate change?
health consequences of climate change include higher rates of malnutrition
Who do they say generally takes care of the sick?
women and girls are generally expected to care for the sick
it has been widely recognised that the rising water levels associated with climate change will lead to an increase in water borne diseases. other likely health consequences of climate change include higher rates of malnutrition due to food shortages, increases in heat-related mortality and morbidity, and increased respiratory disease where air pollution worsens. children under five are the main victims of sanitation-related illnesses, and - along with the elderly - are most affected by heat stress (bartlett 2008). gender discrimination in the allocation of resources, including those relating to nutrition and medicines, may put girls at greater risk than boys. more research into the gender-specific health impacts of climate change on children and adolescents would help to illuminate the extent to which this is the case, and would in turn enable a more targeted response. women and girls are generally expected to care for the sick, particularly in times of disaster and environmental stress (iucn/wedo 2007). this limits the time they have available for income generation which, when coupled with the rising medical costs associated with family illness, heightens levels of poverty. it also means they are less able to contribute to community-level decision-making processes on climate change or disaster risk reduction. in addition, being faced with the burden of caring for dependents while being obliged to travel further for water or firewood makes women and girls prone to stress-related illnesses and exhaustion (voluntary services overseas 2006; cida 2002). women and girls also face barriers to accessing healthcare services due to a lack of economic assets to pay for healthcare, as well as cultural restrictions on their mobility which may prohibit them from travelling to seek healthcare. the elderly are at highest risk from climate change-related health impacts like heat stress and malnutrition. elderly women are likely to be particularly vulnerable, especially in developing
WHICH YEAR OFFICE MARKETING WAS  DEVELOPING?
the office market was developing in the uk in the 1960s
HOW MANY OCCCUPATION IN THE OFFICE?
survey by loudon and keighley 21 in post-war offices had shown that as many as 40% of the occupants were sometimes too hot in summer and was widely published in professional as well as research circle
WHAT ARE THE REASONS IN THE OFFICE?
the probable reasons for this increase were given as greater use of glass, with windows over 50% larger in the 1961 survey than in the 1948 survey
a second study, published two years later, indicates how rapidly the office market was developing in the uk in the 1960s. the paper, by a.g. loudon at the building research establishment (bre), resulted from the increasing problem of overheating in buildings due to excessive glazing. 19 in the 1960s the style of building was changing rapidly as more glass and lighter weight buildings replaced the traditional heavier type, and a survey by gray and corlett 20 showed that in pre-war offices the window areas averaged around 20% of the floor area and 85% of occupants wanted more sunshine in their offices, while only 9% were concerned that it should not be too hot. by 1961 a survey by loudon and keighley 21 in post-war offices had shown that as many as 40% of the occupants were sometimes too hot in summer and was widely published in professional as well as research circles. the probable reasons for this increase were given as greater use of glass, with windows over 50% larger in the 1961 survey than in the 1948 survey. moreover, 80% of the internal partitions on post-war buildings were lightweight, warming up quickly, and in the pre-war buildings they were heavy. the fact that there was more traffic noise in the later survey, making people keep their windows shut, was also thought significant, and more complaints about overheating were recorded near busy traffic routes.
What does the local-level efforts do?
other local-level efforts to overtly increase the level of alternative energy production or reduce the level of automobile use have been reported for many cities around the world -- including sorsogon, philippines; esmeraldas, ecuador; maputo, mozambique; and kampala, uganda, where efforts are supported by the cities in climate change initiative, funded by the government of norway and the un development account (un-habitat, 2008
Whether complete inventory had done ?
 a complete inventory cannot be undertaken in this paper, though it would be a good subject for a future research project. but the major point is that many local governments and community organizations have recognized that actions undertaken at a local level are a major source of carbon emissions and that a need exists to tackle these at the local level as well as at higher scales
Who is the largest emitter of greenhouse gas?
the state of california not only is the 12th largest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world -- with emissions comparable to australia's -- but is also now one of the leading states in adopting policies related to climate change (engel, 2006
other local-level efforts to overtly increase the level of alternative energy production or reduce the level of automobile use have been reported for many cities around the world -- including sorsogon, philippines; esmeraldas, ecuador; maputo, mozambique; and kampala, uganda, where efforts are supported by the cities in climate change initiative, funded by the government of norway and the un development account (un-habitat, 2008). a complete inventory cannot be undertaken in this paper, though it would be a good subject for a future research project. but the major point is that many local governments and community organizations have recognized that actions undertaken at a local level are a major source of carbon emissions and that a need exists to tackle these at the local level as well as at higher scales. 7.2. state-level projects in the united states the state of california not only is the 12th largest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world -- with emissions comparable to australia's -- but is also now one of the leading states in adopting policies related to climate change (engel, 2006). for example, in 2006, the california legislature passed the global warming solutions act, aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the state by 25 percent by 2020 by requiring drastic reductions in major industries, including oil and gas refineries and utilities.5the california air resources board is charged with developing a market-based, cap-and-trade program to implement the required reductions. the colorado legislature passed state house bill 08-1350, signed into law in 2008, to enable local governments within the state to adopt policies similar to the berkeley first program. the legislation allows municipalities in colorado to finance approved building improvements and enables property owners to pay off capital investments made to decrease their use of fossil fuels for heating and electricity through repayments over 20 years. in july 2007, florida governor charlie crist brought together government, business, and scientific leaders from across the state to discuss what actions could be taken by florida to address climate change issues. at the conclusion of the meeting, several executive orders were signed to set out targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in florida and to change the building code to require increased energy efficiency in new construction.6
Where is the higher concentration of hydrate?
hydrate concentration is highest near the base of the stability zone
From what distance the oil slicks can be seen?
natural oil seeps leave slicks on the sea surface that can be seen from space
Why most of the hydrates in stratographic-type deposits tend to be deep?
in stratographic-type hydrate deposits, hydrate concentration is highest near the base of the stability zone, often hundreds of meters below the sea floor. in shallower waters, where the stability zone is thinner, models predict smaller inventories of hydrate
in stratographic-type hydrate deposits, hydrate concentration is highest near the base of the stability zone, often hundreds of meters below the sea floor. in shallower waters, where the stability zone is thinner, models predict smaller inventories of hydrate. therefore, most of the hydrates in stratographic-type deposits tend to be deep. in contrast with this, in a few parts of the world, transport of presumably gaseous methane 20 through faults or permeable channels, results in hydrate deposits that are abundant at shallow depths in the sediment column, closer to the sea floor. these "structural-type" deposits could be vulnerable to temperature-change driven melting on a faster time scale than the stratographic deposits are expected to be. the gulf of mexico is basically a leaky oil field (macdonald et al., 1994, 2002, 2004; 25 milkov and sassen, 2000, 2001, 2003; sassen et al., 2001a, 2003; sassen and macdonald, 1994). natural oil seeps leave slicks on the sea surface that can be seen from space. large chunks of methane hydrate have been found on the sea floor in 1014
What is the positive points if the public get more access to data and knowledge about environmental issues?
improved access to data, resources, and integrated assessments for decision makers, thus facilitating the transfer of knowledge about risks, vulnerabilities, and adaptation choices, and education of the public about consequences and alternatives (25, 79, 183
How is it possible to monitor the coastal areas in a research?
improved monitoring of coastal environments through expanded networks of basic observing systems, developing time series data on environmental and landscape changes, and assembling baseline data for the coastal zone
What could improve the decision make process?
research on adaptation, hazard mitigation, and avoidance measures (cost, feasibility, side effects, barriers, and acceptability) to support adaptation planning and decision making
future issues sample research needs to support coastal management in a rapidly changing climate include the following: 1. improved monitoring of coastal environments through expanded networks of basic observing systems, developing time series data on environmental and landscape changes, and assembling baseline data for the coastal zone. 2. improved understanding of natural and human-influenced coastal systems through use of historic and geologic records of coastal change that increase knowledge of slr and coastal change over the past few millennia, identifying thresholds or tipping points, and more closely relating past changes in climate to coastal change. 3. increases in predictive capabilities through improved quantitative assessment methods and integration of the past and present data into predictive models. 4. improved place-based understanding of the societal drivers of vulnerability and impacts of slr and related coastal changes through improved data collection and integration and communication with decision makers. 5. research on adaptation, hazard mitigation, and avoidance measures (cost, feasibility, side effects, barriers, and acceptability) to support adaptation planning and decision making. 6. improved access to data, resources, and integrated assessments for decision makers, thus facilitating the transfer of knowledge about risks, vulnerabilities, and adaptation choices, and education of the public about consequences and alternatives (25, 79, 183).
Name the supercomputers that the simulations were conducted on.
phoenix and jagua
What did Dr. Jiwei Tian introduce the writer to?
global climate research
Where did the resources come from that were used in the research?
oak ridge leadership computing facility at the oak ridge national laboratory
shu wu, john-paul argenti. the weekly student meeting has always broadened my horizon on climate research. a special thanks goes to my bachelor thesis adviser, dr. jiwei tian, who introduced me into global climate research and provided me with the framework of my knowledge on climate dynamics. i am also grateful for the support from my parents and parent-in-laws. it is their prayers that helped me to overcome the difficulties. as always, my wife, xiaoyi sun and my son, zijun he (le le), deserve the most gratitude from me. we enjoy every minute of our life and share with each other the happiness as well as the sadness. it is their love that gives me the strength to move forward and enjoy my work as a climate researcher. i would like to thank michael notaro, steve vavrus, john kutzbach, kenji kawamura, and jinming yu for very useful comments at various stages of this study. this research used resources of the oak ridge leadership computing facility at the oak ridge national laboratory, which is supported by the office of science of the u.s. department of energy under contract no. de-ac05-00or22725. the simulation was conducted on supercomputers phoenix and jaguar and the results were analyzed on the analysis server lens.
What is shown in figure 6?
satellite map of europe, with documented drought-induced mortality areas indicated with numbers
What is shown in figure 5?
fig. 5. satellite map of australasia, with documented drought-induced mortality areas indicated with numbers, tied to table a3 references
Which person is responsible for both R photo and L photo?
rod fensham
fig. 6. satellite map of europe, with documented drought-induced mortality areas indicated with numbers, tied to table a4 references. r photo: pinus sylvestris mortality, valais, switzerland; 1999, by beat wermelinger. l photo: pinus sylvestris die-off, sierra de los filabres, spain; 2006, by rafael navarro-cerrillo. fig. 5. satellite map of australasia, with documented drought-induced mortality areas indicated with numbers, tied to table a3 references. r photo: die-off of mulga, acacia aneura the dominant tree across large areas of semi-arid australia; 2007, by rod fensham. l photo: eucalyptus xanthoclada mortality in queensland, northeastern australia; 1996, by rod fensham. c.d. allen et al. forest ecology and management xxx (2009) xxx-xxx 6
What Victor (2001) and Barrett (2003), among others, have demonstrated?
as victor (2001) and barrett (2003), among others, have demonstrated, the problem of climate change does not easily lend itself to a global agreement to reduce emissions
Why does the climate change is so intractable?
climate change is so intractable because the basic conditions for agreement--and for compliance and enforcement--are largely absent
What are the problems of climate change
the allocation of responsibility for the existing stock of carbon in the atmosphere (which developing countries point out was put there by the industrialized countries) is complex; carbon emissions per head are low in those countries most rapidly increasing their emissions; some countries (and, particularly, some countries' political 'elites) may actually benefit from climate change, and generally the effects vary greatly between countries; there are powerful--multidimensional--free-rider incentives; the measurement of emissions (including, to list just a few, rain-forest depletion, soil erosion, methane from permafrost melting, aviation and shipping, agriculture, and ocean and other sink depletion) is at best weak; and there are, at present, no serious enforcement mechanisms
as victor (2001) and barrett (2003), among others, have demonstrated, the problem of climate change does not easily lend itself to a global agreement to reduce emissions. the analysis of the conditions for such a top-down agreement to work tolerably well have been researched by international-relations specialists for decades, and, in the environmental field, the montreal protocol on ozone depletion has provided a pertinent (and much misunderstood) case study (barrett, 2003, ch. 8). climate change is so intractable because the basic conditions for agreement--and for compliance and enforcement--are largely absent. to name but a few of the problems: the allocation of responsibility for the existing stock of carbon in the atmosphere (which developing countries point out was put there by the industrialized countries) is complex; carbon emissions per head are low in those countries most rapidly increasing their emissions; some countries (and, particularly, some countries' political 'elites) may actually benefit from climate change, and generally the effects vary greatly between countries; there are powerful--multidimensional--free-rider incentives; the measurement of emissions (including, to list just a few, rain-forest depletion, soil erosion, methane from permafrost melting, aviation and shipping, agriculture, and ocean and other sink depletion) is at best weak; and there are, at present, no serious enforcement mechanisms. it is hard to think of an international problem which lends itself less to a coherent, credible, and sufficiently
What os the challenge for the climate change researchers?
the challenge for climate change researchers is then to bring this understanding of markets, household behavior, and institutions together with biophysical models to produce integrated assessment models which accurately reflect this barriers to adaptation
Why the IAMs were initially developed?
the modeling landscape integrated assessment models (henceforth iams) were initially developed to focus on emissions and mitigation pathways associated with different global economic growth scenarios. some of these economics-oriented iams seek to find the 'optimal' carbon tax or mitigation pathway - trading off the economic impacts of climate change against the costs of mitigation (nordhaus 2008
What are the problems of the "botton-up" nature of the adaptation activities?
this makes them much more difficult to capture in a sectorand region-aggregated iam. as noted above, agricultural adaptive capacity varies greatly by location, by resource endowments, and by institutional context of the farmer. furthermore, one cannot estimate adaptation until the impacts of climate change are known. and estimation of these heterogeneous impacts is also problematic
in short, policy and the market environment have significant potential to impact the extent to which farmers, particularly asset-poor and vulnerable populations, adapt to climate change. the challenge for climate change researchers is then to bring this understanding of markets, household behavior, and institutions together with biophysical models to produce integrated assessment models which accurately reflect this barriers to adaptation. iv. overview of the modeling landscape integrated assessment models (henceforth iams) were initially developed to focus on emissions and mitigation pathways associated with different global economic growth scenarios. some of these economics-oriented iams seek to find the 'optimal' carbon tax or mitigation pathway - trading off the economic impacts of climate change against the costs of mitigation (nordhaus 2008). within this framework, mitigation policy is something that is dictated in a 'top-down' fashion, with ghg emissions quotas or carbon taxes set by government policy, and individual sectors or consumers responding to this induced scarcity. however, as pointed out by patt et al. (2010), most adaptation activities are fundamentally 'bottom-up' in nature. this makes them much more difficult to capture in a sectorand region-aggregated iam. as noted above, agricultural adaptive capacity varies greatly by location, by resource endowments, and by institutional context of the farmer. furthermore, one cannot estimate adaptation until the impacts of climate change are known. and estimation of these heterogeneous impacts is also problematic. in short, it is hardly surprising that most iams have, to date, done relatively little on the adaptation front. we begin the discussion of adaptation in iams with the two, economics-oriented, perfect foresight models listed at the top of table 1 which have their roots in the seminal work of nordhaus (2008). these two models are necessarily simple in terms of sector complexity, but
what are the results of the survey?
the survey findings show that certain misperceptions continue to prevail and that there is limited awareness of the relative contribution of different activities to causing climate change
What should be provided for education and communication?
provide relevant information to guide effective mitigative action. we stress, however, that this communication effort should be grounded in situated contexts and social meanings, and needs to be cognizant of the ways that individuals learn
What does the theory of social representation suggest?
social representation theory (moscovici, 1988) suggests that there is a need for objectification -- making carbon tangible and concrete. this could be achieved through effective informational approaches that effectively rematerialize energy and carbon (e.g., carbon labeling, smart meters, etc.; burgess and nye, 2008, hm government, 2009). the theory also suggests anchoring within pre-- existing frameworks is needed in order to render the unfamiliar, familiar. so for example, the concept of 'carbon' could be anchored within existing frames of lifestyle, finance or morality
the first dimension of carbon capability comprises knowledge, understanding and motivations to act. the survey findings show that certain misperceptions continue to prevail and that there is limited awareness of the relative contribution of different activities to causing climate change. this suggests a role for communication and education to provide relevant information to guide effective mitigative action. we stress, however, that this communication effort should be grounded in situated contexts and social meanings, and needs to be cognizant of the ways that individuals learn. social representation theory (moscovici, 1988) suggests that there is a need for objectification -- making carbon tangible and concrete. this could be achieved through effective informational approaches that effectively rematerialize energy and carbon (e.g., carbon labeling, smart meters, etc.; burgess and nye, 2008, hm government, 2009). the theory also suggests anchoring within pre-- existing frameworks is needed in order to render the unfamiliar, familiar. so for example, the concept of 'carbon' could be anchored within existing frames of lifestyle, finance or morality (nerlich and koteyko, 2009). such tailored informational approaches may also help address the evident limited public motivation to adopt low--carbon lifestyles (and, particularly, to change travel, shopping and eating habits). by highlighting personal (e.g., health, financial) as well as social and
How will the trade pattern resulting from model be impacted ?
the trade pattern that will result from model runs is highly impacted by the intertemporal trade balance constraint
What is the relation between export of composite goods and future imports and how will it affect consumption ?
each export of composite goods qualifies the exporting region for a future import (of the same present value), but implies for the current period a loss of consumption
What will be the affect of sale of emission right in terms of revenue?
the revenues from the sale of emission rights prove completely advantageous for the selling regions in the way that it generates entitlements for future re-exports of permits or goods
bi( r [?] r, i (10) and lim i -[?]bi( r 0 [?] r, (11) i.e. the intertemporal trade balance converges to zero for each region. the trade pattern that will result from model runs is highly impacted by the intertemporal trade balance constraint. each export of composite goods qualifies the exporting region for a future import (of the same present value), but implies for the current period a loss of consumption. trade with emission permits works similarly to goods trade. emission rights are distributed free of charge in the different policy regimes according to different allocation rules. the revenues from the sale of emission rights prove completely advantageous for the selling regions in the way that it generates entitlements for future re-exports of permits or goods. each unit of co2 emitted by combusting fossil fuels e t, r, c using technology c needs to be covered by emission certificates (either allocated q t, r net of exports xp t, r or imported mp t, r ): 
Where is the only fulmar colony located in Pointe Geologie?
he only colony of southern fulmars at pointe geologie is located on a cliff 20 m from the dumont d'urville station
Breeding pairs were censored from what date?
breeding pairs were censused towards the end of december, just after egg-laying
When did the chicks feather?
hatched eggs were checked in late january and live chicks were counted just before fledging from midto late february
e), terre adelie, antarctica. the only colony of southern fulmars at pointe geologie is located on a cliff 20 m from the dumont d'urville station. breeding pairs were censused towards the end of december, just after egg-laying. hatched eggs were checked in late january and live chicks were counted just before fledging from midto late february. every year, all adult birds captured in the colony were marked with a stainless steel band during the incubation, and all chicks were marked just before fledging. each nest with an egg was checked two to three times during the first half of the incubation period, which permitted us to read the ring of all breeding birds present on the colony. southern fulmars are very tame and could be approached easily. the ring could often be read without capturing the incubating bird, but just by gently taking the incubating bird's tarsus and reading the ring. in order to investigate the relationships between the fluctuations of the environmental and the demographic
What should a written speech for the government look like?
not all of the discussion in the literature is relevant to local governments 117 and a review of all findings is not within the scope of this paper. however, a brief discussion of how 118 market barriers to energy efficiency effect local governments is warranted
What policies has the government used to reduce the impact of the climate?
additionally, municipalities 119 have undertaken a few policies that could potentially lessen the impact of certain barriers for their 120 constituencies. 121 some of the barriers (and market failures) relevant to local governments include metz et al., 2001; 122
interlaboratory working group, 2000; national academy of sciences et al., 1992; koomey et al., 1998 ). 114 while a number of barriers have been identified to explain this perceived "efficiency gap," debate has 115 also raged as to how many are true market failures for which low-cost remedying policies exist that can 116 justify government intervention. not all of the discussion in the literature is relevant to local governments 117 and a review of all findings is not within the scope of this paper. however, a brief discussion of how 118 market barriers to energy efficiency effect local governments is warranted. additionally, municipalities 119 have undertaken a few policies that could potentially lessen the impact of certain barriers for their 120 constituencies. 121 some of the barriers (and market failures) relevant to local governments include metz et al., 2001; 122
Geochemical records indicate that there have been no significant changes to ocean pH. True or False?
geochemical records show that ocean ph is already outside its range of the past several million years [121-122
What are some consequences from ocean warming and coral bleaching that we can already observe?
warming causes coral bleaching, as overheated coral expel symbiotic algae and become vulnerable to disease and mortality [123]. coral bleaching and slowing of coral calcification already are causing mass mortalities, increased coral disease, and reduced reef carbonate accretion, thus disrupting coral reef ecosystem health [40,124
Does the loss of coral reefs affect humans and should we be concerned, or is it only bad for ocean wildlife?
loss of these frameworks also has consequences for the important roles that coral reefs play in supporting fisheries and protecting coastlines from wave stress. consequences of lost coral reefs can be economically devastating for many nations, especially in combination with other impacts such as sea level rise and intensification of storms
coral reefs are the most biologically diverse marine ecosystem, often described as the rainforests of the ocean. over a million species, most not yet described [119], are estimated to populate coral reef ecosystems generating crucial ecosystem services for at least 500 million people in tropical coastal areas. these ecosystems are highly vulnerable to the combined effects of ocean acidification and warming. acidification arises as the ocean absorbs co2, producing carbonic acid [120], thus making the ocean more corrosive to the calcium carbonate shells (exoskeletons) of many marine organisms. geochemical records show that ocean ph is already outside its range of the past several million years [121-122]. warming causes coral bleaching, as overheated coral expel symbiotic algae and become vulnerable to disease and mortality [123]. coral bleaching and slowing of coral calcification already are causing mass mortalities, increased coral disease, and reduced reef carbonate accretion, thus disrupting coral reef ecosystem health [40,124]. local human-made stresses add to the global warming and acidification effects, all of these driving a contraction of 1-2% per year in the abundance of reef-building corals loss of the three-dimensional coral reef frameworks has consequences for all the species that depend on them. loss of these frameworks also has consequences for the important roles that coral reefs play in supporting fisheries and protecting coastlines from wave stress. consequences of lost coral reefs can be economically devastating for many nations, especially in combination with other impacts such as sea level rise and intensification of storms.
what do Cumulus parameterizations assume ?
cumulus parameterizations assume that the area of a grid cell is much greater (e.g., >20 km) than that occupied by an ensemble of subgrid clouds
why Cumulus parameterizations assume that the area of a grid cell is much greater than that occupied by an ensemble of subgrid clouds?
because individual clouds vary from tens to a few thousand meters, neither a cumulus parameterization nor explicit cloud treatment applies strictly at 5-20 km resolution although both methods produce stable results at this resolutio
how did Water vapor and aerosol particles are transport in the model ?
water vapor and aerosol particles are transported in the model by horizontal and vertical winds
cumulus parameterizations assume that the area of a grid cell is much greater (e.g., >20 km) than that occupied by an ensemble of subgrid clouds. because individual clouds vary from tens to a few thousand meters, neither a cumulus parameterization nor explicit cloud treatment applies strictly at 5-20 km resolution although both methods produce stable results at this resolution. here, an algorithm was developed to treat the explicit 3-d evolution and movement of sizeand composition-resolved clouds and precipitation with aerosol inclusions and applied at  5 km resolution. characteristics of the algorithm are described in table 1 and compared with two mesoscale models and a large-eddy simulation model. of significant difference is that the mesoscale models, which are often run at the same horizontal resolution as the study here, do not transport clouds in 3-d or include discrete sizeand compositionresolved cloud microphysics as treated here. water vapor and aerosol particles are transported in the model by horizontal and vertical winds. when the air becomes supersaturated, condensation or deposition occurs. if clouds pre-exist, hydrometeor particles compete with interstitial aerosol particles for available water vapor. the ordinary differential equations solved here for water vapor condensation (evaporation) onto (from) aerosol particles (equation 1), deposition (sublimation) onto (from) aerosol particles (equation 2), condensation (evaporation) or deposition (sublimation) onto (from) pre-existing hydrometeor particles (liquid, ice, and/or graupel) (equation 3), and mole conservation (equation 4) are
How would the Paris Agreement work?
for the paris agreement to make a difference, the new logic of 'pledge and review' and the subsequent 'ratchet' will need to mobilize international and domestic pressure and generate realistic expectations for more substantial climate policies worldwide
What does the history of climate policy suggest to governments around the world?
have a tendency to express lofty aspirations but avoid tough decisions
What is the theme of the subject explored in the text?
paris agreement
the past record of climate policies around the world suggests that governments have a tendency to express lofty aspirations but avoid tough decisions. for the paris agreement to make a difference, the new logic of 'pledge and review' and the subsequent 'ratchet' will need to mobilize international and domestic pressure and generate realistic expectations for more substantial climate policies worldwide. it matters, therefore, whether the paris agreement's new approach can be made to work. this article offers a first-cut analysis of the new global governance approach enshrined in the paris agreement, focusing on the mitigation challenge. it begins by examining (in the first section) the changing context of international climate politics between the 2009 copenhagen accord and the 2015 paris conference. the second section reviews the main elements of the paris agreement, and the third section analyses how the new logic of the climate regime can work and what its limitations are. the final section sums up the
What fig. 8c showed?
fig. 8c shows the mean response in the wind intensity of the subset of the strong cyclones
According to the text, what is the intensity of the cyclone wind associated with strong wind speeds?
the wind intensity of the cyclones associated with strong wind speeds might contribute to larger economic loss potential from cyclone activity
The dominant runway density signal is a reduction along the southern flank of the storm runway in which part of the world?
the dominant track density signal is a reduction along the southern flank of the storm track and in particular over north america
to further analyze the increase in european storminess, fig. 8c shows the mean response in the wind intensity of the subset of the strong cyclones. while no significant changes are found over most of the atlantic, an increase in the 850-hpa wind speeds of the strong cyclones is found over central europe in the multimodel mean (3% 6 1%). the increase in both the number and the wind intensity of the cyclones associated with strong wind speeds might contribute to larger economic loss potential from cyclone activity (mailier et al. 2006; pinto et al. 2012). however, the signal-to-noise ratio of the european track density and intensity mean responses are small and cmip5 models tend to agree that the responses are small compared with internal variability f2, 1). figures 8b and 8d show the same analysis but for jja. the dominant track density signal is a reduction along the southern flank of the storm track and in particular over north america. however, the track density increases in the norwegian sea area. this dipolar structure is related to the larger uncertainty in the jja response compared with djf (see fig. 7b). in some models the
What features were observed in the widely distributed North American breeding birds ?
the assemblage of breeding birds in north america provided several cases in which widely distributed species demonstrated well-developed population structure or geographically structured morphological variation
How were  the subspecies of the breeding birds recognized?
subspecies were recognized based on stable color polymorphisms and/or morphological variation or 2) subspecies were recognized based on regional to continental patterns of genetic and morphological characteristics
Give examples of species that were subsequently downgraded to subspecies in order to form one polytypic species ?
these included junco hyemalis (dark-eyed junco), colaptes auratus (northern flicker) and dendroica coronata (yellow-rumped
the assemblage of breeding birds in north america provided several cases in which widely distributed species demonstrated well-developed population structure or geographically structured morphological variation. this included cases where: 1) subspecies were recognized based on stable color polymorphisms and/or morphological variation or 2) subspecies were recognized based on regional to continental patterns of genetic and morphological characteristics (table, supplementary material appendix s1). data on the distribution of these taxa in the united states and canada came from the download web site of the north american breeding bird survey (bbs, usgs patuxent wildlife research center 2009). we selected three of four taxa because they were formerly recognized as species that were subsequently downgraded to subspecies in order to form one polytypic species. these included junco hyemalis (dark-eyed junco), colaptes auratus (northern flicker) and dendroica coronata (yellow-rumped
How many equations and unknowns are obtained in the linear system?
a linear system of five equations with five unknowns
Is it possible to devise a convenient and computational efficient process to deal with an unknown number of breakpoints and its positions?
it almost impossible to devise a convenient and computational efficient process to deal with an unknown number of breakpoints and its positions
What can you do instead?
one can transform this problem into a general case of an over-determined system of linear equations of the type
if the breakpoint positions, bp (2), bp (3) and bp (4), are known, or are imposed, it is quite easy to obtain a linear system of five equations with five unknowns, a1, a2, a3, a4 and c1, equating to zero the partial derivatives of the sum of the square differences between the fit function and the observations. but the equation system obtained that way could not be generalized to an arbitrary number of line segments, making it almost impossible to devise a convenient and computational efficient process to deal with an unknown number of breakpoints and its positions. instead of that, one can transform this problem into a general case of an over-determined system of linear equations of the type
Is the bay of Fundy a sensitive region? Why?
another sensitive region is the head of the bay of fundy, where increased flooding and dyke breaching is a potential consequence of future climate change
What does figure 3 depicts?
figure 3 depicts the extent of potential flooding of present-day truro, nova scotia, if it were subjected to a storm surge similar to that of the 1869 saxby gale (the highest historic water level event in the upper bay of fundy20
Flooding is an issue in the region, but there are other concerns, which one for example?
degradation of coastal salt marshes due to climate change is also an important concern in this region
another sensitive region is the head of the bay of fundy, where increased flooding and dyke breaching is a potential consequence of future climate change. figure 3 depicts the extent of potential flooding of present-day truro, nova scotia, if it were subjected to a storm surge similar to that of the 1869 saxby gale (the highest historic water level event in the upper bay of fundy20). the extent of potential present flooding reflects the 44-centimetre rise in sea level that has occurred since that time. the extent of flooding would be even higher in the future as a result of accelerated sea level rise. degradation of coastal salt marshes due to climate change is also an important concern in this region see box 2). climate change and sea level rise may also exacerbate other coastal zone hazards. for example, many communities in newfoundland and labrador have developed at the base of steep slopes, where there is risk of damage from landslides and avalanches.(22)
Mention the two issues that are inherent to all comprehensive climate models
rcms share the same issues that are inherent to all comprehensive climate models. these pertain to the numerical treatment of the governing equations and also to the representation of unresolved processes
What does finite model resolution require?
finite model resolution requires that anything that occurs on finer scales than those that are resolved needs to be approximated
What is parameterization?
this is known as parameterization. it signifies a description of a physical process with a sort of a physically based model of its own. an example is the evolution of cloud droplets into rain or snowfall. the detailed inherent processes are known, but it is an inconceivable task to model each cloud droplet separately
rcms share the same issues that are inherent to all comprehensive climate models. these pertain to the numerical treatment of the governing equations and also to the representation of unresolved processes. after all, even though rcms enhance the resolution on which climate is modeled compared to global models, they push unresolved scales further towards finer scales, rather than encompass them fully. finite model resolution requires that anything that occurs on finer scales than those that are resolved needs to be approximated. this is known as parameterization. it signifies a description of a physical process with a sort of a physically based model of its own. an example is the evolution of cloud droplets into rain or snowfall. the detailed inherent processes are known, but it is an inconceivable task to model each cloud droplet separately. even though parameterizations are needed in both gcms and rcms, their specific nature and the extent to which they are needed depend on model resolution. the basic issue nevertheless is similar in global and regional climate modeling and it is not discussed further in this review.
What is the name of a small mountain pass through which the  Lake Brownworth westerly wind flows?
clark valley
What type of wind during the winter months Lake Brownworth is experiencing?
katabatic winds
the broader and multinodal nature of the lake brownworth westerly wind speed distribution seems related to the strongest katabatic flow occasionally spilling over from victoria valley via a small mountain pass (clark valley) on the north side of the valley. when comparing vanda and brownworth on the same timescale (figure 9), in the summer lake vanda is almost always warmer, sometimes by greater than 10  c. this corresponds to a normally higher wind speed during the summer at lake vanda. during the winter, however, large temperature differences can occur in both directions with vanda sometimes being more than 25  c warmer than brownworth, and brownworth sometimes being more than 32  c warmer than vanda. similarly, it is more common to have high wind speeds at lake brownworth during the winter and lake vanda calm, than vice versa. by focusing on a small period of one winter, the cause for these differences becomes clear. figure 10 shows that much of the time during the winter months, lake brownworth is experiencing katabatic winds from the direction of lake vanda, but lake vanda is calm. the katabatic winds appear to ride directly over lake vanda without touching the ground for part of the storm, and occasionally the katabatic flow lowers to affect the region of lake vanda. in other documented cases of hydraulic jumps described above, the katabatic dissipates at altitude, downslope of the jump. in this case, the katabatic wind is either displaced from the ground between the plateau and lake vanda by a hydraulic jump type phenomenon, or it is never allowed to touch the ground until past lake vanda. we propose that during periods where we see no wind at lake vanda, but strong westerlies at lake brownworth, a cold cell sits low in the lake vanda basin and prevents the relatively warm katabatic from touching down. over time, and/or if the katabatic is sufficiently strong and turbulent, it is able to erode the cold cell and reach lake vanda. during periods where we see strong westerlies at lake vanda but not lake brownworth, we propose that the situation is similar to taylor valley in figure 6 where either cold air pushing into the valley from the coast forces the katabatic upward and/or a hydraulic jump is formed. 4.4. victoria valley we have only one station in victoria valley at lake vida, and therefore can not do the same down-valley comparisons we have done for the other valleys. however, the single station at lake vida confirms and strengthens our conclusions about katabatic flow made for the other valleys. during the summer months at lake vida, winds are dominantly from the coast (figure 11). note also that compared to the other valleys, in victoria valley during the winter there is almost a complete absence of an easterly wind, and average wind speeds are lower from all directions in all seasons. infrequent katabatic flows are observed from the southwest. during the winter, lake vida is a relatively cold, dry and calm location, with only infrequent katabatic winds (figure 12). furthermore, when comparing a typical lake vida winter with lake bonney in taylor valley it is figure 7. katabatic event in taylor valley during spring 1999. this event produced the highest maximum wind speed in our record. figure 8. summer (solid symbols) versus winter (open symbols) wright valley comparison of temperature, average wind speed, maximum wind speed, vapor pressure, and wind frequency plotted by wind direction (5 degree averages). triangles represent lake vanda data and circles represent lake brownworth data.
What is the fundamental flaw of the Kyoto Protocol?
linking climate-change policies to both economic and environmental objectives
What are the positive aspects of the Review?
it makes an important contribution in selecting climate-change policies with an eye to balancing economic priorities with environmental dangers
What are the questionable aspects of the Review?
modeling and economic assumptions
on a more positive note, while we can question some of the on a more positive note, while we can question some of the review's modeling and economic assumptions, it makes an important contribution in selecting climate-change policies with an eye to balancing economic priorities with environmental dangers. by linking climate-change policies to both economic and environmental objectives, in principle if not in practice, the review has corrected one of the fundamental flaws of the kyoto protocol, which had no such linkage. by contrast, the parallel analysis of the bush administration, cited in footnote 2 above, provided no support for the bush administration's rejection of binding emissions constraints on ghg emissions.
The real-world climate response differs from this idealized case in how many ways?
real world climate response differs from this idealized case in two ways
Is the response on decade timescales greater or less than the rapid feedback balance response?
first, response on decadal time-scales is much less than the fast-feedback equilibrium response
What are fixed surfaces?
fixed surface properties (vegetation cover and ice sheet area
real world climate response differs from this idealized case in two ways. first, response on decadal time-scales is much less than the fast-feedback equilibrium response. half of the equilibrium response is obtained in 30 years, but, as the climate response function figure 7 b shows, the other half requires a millennium. second, assumption of fixed surface properties (vegetation cover and ice sheet area) becomes invalid long before equilibrium is achieved. climate sensitivity with surface properties free to change (but with ghg specified as a forcing, a choice relevant to the twenty-first century) is defined in figure 1 which reveals antarctic temperature increase of 3 8 c (w mk 2)k 1. global temperature change is about half that in antarctica, so this equilibrium global climate sensitivity is 1.5 8 c (w mk 2)k 1, double the fast-feedback (charney) sensitivity.
Why landslide are caused in Seattle (Washington State, USA)
landslides are a widespread, frequent, and costly hazard in seattle (washington state, usa) due to the area's post-glacial geology, topography characterised by steep slopes, and climate with wet winters and frequent rain showers
what are the changes  takes place due climate ?
climate change is likely to increase ground instability in the area by exceeding the safe saturation levels of soil through more frequent and intense precipitation
What are the regulations within the Seattle Municipal Code include ?
the regulations within the seattle municipal code include detailed requirements on the maintenance and restoration of vegetation in areas prone to landslides
landslides are a widespread, frequent, and costly hazard in seattle (washington state, usa) due to the area's post-glacial geology, topography characterised by steep slopes, and climate with wet winters and frequent rain showers. climate change is likely to increase ground instability in the area by exceeding the safe saturation levels of soil through more frequent and intense precipitation. after disastrous landslides in winters of 1995-96 and 1996-97, the city of seattle in collaboration with the us geological survey and the state of washington has carried out extensive research to identify the areas prone to landslides, and issued regulations on how landslide risk could be prevented. the regulations within the seattle municipal code include detailed requirements on the maintenance and restoration of vegetation in areas prone to landslides. these regulations are also presented by the department for planning and development to seattle residents in form of user-friendly "client assistance memos" and through public meetings.
Who provided hospitality to the workshop attendees?
the turkish state meteorological service during the workshop
Who are also coauthors of this paper?
a group of volunteers
Who coordinated the Workshop on Enhancing Middle East Climate Change Monitoring and Indices?
joint wmo ccl/clivar expert team on climate change detection, monitoring, and indices
acknowledgments. most of the analyses presented in this paper were conducted during the workshop on enhancing middle east climate change monitoring and indices. this workshop was coordinated by the joint wmo ccl/clivar expert team on climate change detection, monitoring, and indices and was organized by a group of volunteers who are also coauthors of this paper. it was financially supported by the u.s. state department to gcos in support of the ipcc. the workshop attendees enjoyed and very much appreciated the hospitality provided by the turkish state meteorological service during the workshop. the rhtest program was developed by xiaolan wang and feng yang of the meteorological service of canada.
What is the reason for little existing research considering the linkages between climate change and gender?
the issue of climate change is not new, but its take-up as a key development concern and its integration into pro-poor planning is a fairly recent departure. even more recent is the integration of a gender-sensitive perspective in climate change research and responses. for this reason, there is little existing research considering the linkages between climate change and gender
What is the goal of this paper?
this paper, prepared for the uk department for international development's (dfid) equity and rights team, seeks to make the most of the available resources, pulling from them useful insights that could inform and strengthen future research on and interventions into gender and climate change
How does the paper end?
the paper ends with recommendations regarding priority areas for future research and highlights some practical steps required to achieve more equitable, appropriate climate change policies and programmes
the issue of climate change is not new, but its take-up as a key development concern and its integration into pro-poor planning is a fairly recent departure. even more recent is the integration of a gender-sensitive perspective in climate change research and responses. for this reason, there is little existing research considering the linkages between climate change and gender. similarly, while there is a wealth of literature on gender and the environment, gender and energy, gender and water, gender and conflict and gender and disasters, there are few explicit references to gender and climate change. this paper, prepared for the uk department for international development's (dfid) equity and rights team, seeks to make the most of the available resources, pulling from them useful insights that could inform and strengthen future research on and interventions into gender and climate change. drawing on existing publicly available literature and personal communications with experts in the field of gender and climate change1, the paper outlines key linkages between climate change and gender inequality - focusing particularly on adaptation and mitigation policies and practices. it seeks to identify gaps in the existing body of work on gender and the environment, which has focused primarily on women's agricultural livelihoods, access to natural resources, or disaster risk reduction. where possible it reviews best practice on adaptation and mitigation, with an emphasis on research, policy and practice. the paper ends with recommendations regarding priority areas for future research and highlights some practical steps required to achieve more equitable, appropriate climate change policies and programmes.
Which animals are now migrating into the region and establishing new breeding colonies?
the ice-avoiding or ice-tolerant gentoo penguins and fur seals are now migrating into the region and establishing new breeding colonies
in both polar marine regions, what 3 things are impacting species composition, productivity, phenology, and predator-prey interactions?
in both polar marine regions, the reduction of sea ice, warming seawater, and increasing freshwater content are impacting species composition, productivity, phenology, and predator-prey interactions
With continued warming, what can be the result of expected poleward species migrations?
with continued warming, we can expect poleward species migrations that could reorganize traditional cold-adapted biomes, change biodiversity, and increase food-web complexity, with direct impacts on carbon transfer within the polar ecosystem and enhanced connectivity with the global ocean system
station region, similar to observed declines in crabeater seals in the region (ducklow et al. 2007). conversely, in a case of opening niche space and species expansion, the ice-avoiding or ice-tolerant gentoo penguins and fur seals are now migrating into the region and establishing new breeding colonies (schofield et al. 2010). this example of species range expansion is similar to the northward range migration of the gray whales in the chukchi sea occurring because of reduced sea-ice extent and duration (moore 2008). thus, in both polar marine regions, the reduction of sea ice, warming seawater, and increasing freshwater content are impacting species composition, productivity, phenology, and predator-prey interactions. the impacts of these changes on biodiversity and marine biogeochemical cycling can have both known and unknown consequences to the world ocean and internal feedbacks to climate. with continued warming, we can expect poleward species migrations that could reorganize traditional cold-adapted biomes, change biodiversity, and increase food-web complexity, with direct impacts on carbon transfer within the polar ecosystem and enhanced connectivity with the global ocean system.
How can we more effectively analyze the health impacts of climate events?
better assessment of the health eff ects of extreme climatic events requires improved modelling of their pace and spatial distribution and more thorough and sophisticated models of the demographic
What will cause a change of vision in relation to the management of extreme events?
adaptation and mitigation
What is the advantage of a region where disaster risk reduction is actively incorporated as a social and economic activity?
such challenges are only likely to be met successfully where disaster risk reduction is actively incorporated as a mainstream activity of social and economic development
better assessment of the health eff ects of extreme climatic events requires improved modelling of their pace and spatial distribution and more thorough and sophisticated models of the demographic, social, and economic trends that increase human vulnerability to hazards. also, adaptation and mitigation will require a new approach to management of extreme events, focusing on improved early warning, eff ective contingency planning, identifi cation of the most vulnerable and exposed communities, and, in some cases, permanent resettle ment. such challenges are only likely to be met successfully where disaster risk reduction is actively incorporated as a mainstream activity of social and economic development.108
What was found in the intensity of future extreme winter precipitation events over the western United States? a consistent and statistically significant increase
we find a consistent and statistically significant increase in the intensity of future extreme winter precipitation events over the western united states
What does the acronym (RCMs) mean? Regional climate models
as simulated by an ensemble of regional climate models (rcms
What do the eight simulations analyzed in this work show? Consistently show an increase in the intensity of extreme winter precipitation
all eight simulations analyzed in this work consistently show an increase in the intensity of extreme winter
we find a consistent and statistically significant increase in the intensity of future extreme winter precipitation events over the western united states, as simulated by an ensemble of regional climate models (rcms) driven by ipcc ar4 global climate models (gcms). all eight simulations analyzed in this work consistently show an increase in the intensity of extreme winter precipitation with the multi-model mean projecting an area-averaged 12.6% increase in 20-year return period and 14.4% increase in 50-year return period daily precipitation. in contrast with extreme precipitation, the multi-model ensemble shows a decrease in mean winter precipitation of approximately 7.5% in the southwestern us, while the interior west shows less statistically robust increases. citation: dominguez, f., e. rivera, d. p. lettenmaier, and c. l. castro (2012), changes in winter precipitation extremes for the western united states under a warmer climate as simulated by regional climate models, geophys. res. lett. 39 l05803, doi:10.1029/2011gl050762.
What do advances in computing power mean for long simulations and large ensembles?
advances in computing power have meant that long simulations and/or large ensembles are now routine
How many simulated years are required to obtain a statistically significant large-scale atmospheric response and what do those depend on?
typically, however, several tens and possibly hundreds of simulated years are required to obtain a statistically significant large-scale atmospheric circulation response, depending on the magnitude of the sea-ice perturbation (the response to observed sea-ice loss is harder to detect than that due to the larger projected sea-ice loss by the late-twenty-first century), suggesting low detectability17 24 25 32 39 57
What is an ongoing concern of the current breed of climate models and why?
an on-going concern is whether the current breed of climate models has the correct signal-to-noise ratio. some models appear to respond too weakly to forcing in the case of seasonal-to-decadal
advances in computing power have meant that long simulations and/or large ensembles are now routine. this has aided the separation of the forced response to sea-ice loss from internal variability in models. typically, however, several tens and possibly hundreds of simulated years are required to obtain a statistically significant large-scale atmospheric circulation response, depending on the magnitude of the sea-ice perturbation (the response to observed sea-ice loss is harder to detect than that due to the larger projected sea-ice loss by the late-twenty-first century), suggesting low detectability17 24 25 32 39 57. one interpretation of this low signal-to-noise ratio is that the circulation response to sea-ice loss is small compared to atmospheric internal variability. this could be true, especially in the case of the response to observed sea ice, but is open to debate. an on-going concern is whether the current breed of climate models has the correct signal-to-noise ratio. some models appear to respond too weakly to forcing in the case of seasonal-to-decadal
What is cyanobacteria ?
cyanobacteria first appear in the fossil record, the microfossil record is murky (53). some have interpreted filamentous forms in earlier rocks as cyanobacterial remains (54-56), but brasier et al. (57) recently questioned the biogenic nature of these objects
Why can't cyanobacteria cannot be identified solely by a filamentous form?.y
many nonoxygenic bacteria are also filamentous, including some mat-forming green nonsulfur and purple sulfur bacteria (58, 59) and a methanogenic archeon (60
Why is a wide variety of filamentous prokaryotes highlights a problem in identifying fossil microbes? y
the wide variety of filamentous prokaryotes highlights a problem in identifying fossil microbes lacking clear evidence of cell differentiation based on morphology
before 2 ga, when diversified assemblages with affinities to major groups of cyanobacteria first appear in the fossil record, the microfossil record is murky (53). some have interpreted filamentous forms in earlier rocks as cyanobacterial remains (54-56), but brasier et al. (57) recently questioned the biogenic nature of these objects. moreover, cyanobacteria cannot be identified solely by a filamentous form. many nonoxygenic bacteria are also filamentous, including some mat-forming green nonsulfur and purple sulfur bacteria (58, 59) and a methanogenic archeon (60). the wide variety of filamentous prokaryotes highlights a problem in identifying fossil microbes lacking clear evidence of cell differentiation based on morphology: any given form has probably arisen many times in earth history, both in extant and extinct organisms.
What was an iconic slogan of the protests?
one of the iconic slogans of the protests was "if the climate was a bank it would be bailed out
What is the brief conclussion?
we conclude by briefly flagging up areas that need further collaborative thought and action in order that this movement continues to flourish
Where does more work need to be done?
more work needs to be done in terms of assessing and integrating the broad repertoires of action that are needed to bring about climate justice encompassing legislative, judicial, advocacy, direct action and community work
one of the iconic slogans of the protests was "if the climate was a bank it would be bailed out". there was a keen sense of the political possibilities opened up by the failure of neoliberalism even on its own terms. the mobilisations also signal the importance of understanding the crisis in ways which challenge the marginalisation of environmental questions in dominant left responses and analyses of the crisis. they also challenge ways in which notions of austerity are being mobilised in ways which are dramatically excluding concerns with environmental politics from mainstream political debate. we have been broadly sympathetic and supportive in this paper of those groups struggling for climate justice. we conclude by briefly flagging up areas that need further collaborative thought and action in order that this movement continues to flourish. firstly, the terms on which connections between differently located climate struggles are articulated can be both productive and contested. the multiple articulations and solidarities forged through the mobilisations unsettle the rigid demarcations between global north and south reworked by mueller and klein. however, there remain significant unequal geographies of power which shape the terms on which such solidarities are constructed and practised. secondly, the often limited impact and extent of much extra-parliamentary action and autonomous organising that took place in copenhagen needs acknowledging and using as a starting point for improving practice and strategic thinking. key here is thinking about uneven access to resources between more resource-rich ngos and resource-poor social movements and direct action groups, as well as the need to create more stable organisational entities. how more temporary and prefigurative political spaces can be extended beyond these protest moments without being co-opted is a crucial issue for movement building. thirdly, this limited impact may be partly related to the lifestylism, ghettoisation and separation of activist politics and the often counter-productive rifts that emerge between groups pursuing different action tactics. more work needs to be done in terms of assessing and integrating the broad repertoires of action that are needed to bring about climate justice encompassing legislative, judicial, advocacy, direct action and community work. this would involve broader discussions on politics, values and tactics amongst all those groups using the climate justice label. finally, there needs to be a sense of how the political trajectories formed between alter-globalisation movements and climate activism across the class, gender and racial fractures and inequalities of the global north and global south are being negotiated. this involves bringing activists together from very different political perspectives and traditions. there are differences of experience and political outlook that have the potential for undermining the possibilities of translocal solidarities. for example, different class and class-fractional positions exist within the various constituencies of global northern and global southern movements, such as the differential powers of certain northern ngos compared with southern peasant farmers' organisations. moreover, future red-green alliances will require some trade unions to move away from narrow "workerist" positions that sideline or ignore militant ngos, peasant movements, and informal, precarious labour. this also emphasises, however, the ways in which solidarity, rather than being a practice
What can result in the time lag related to the longevity of individuals?
may result in the occurrence of individuals in areas that no longer fall within their environmental niche space
using current environmental correlates of a species' distribution to project its future occurrence also assumes that the current distribution is in equilibrium--suitable habitat is fully occupied or ''saturated'' (17, 25). suitable places may be unoccupied, however, if recent disturbances have eradicated a species from an area [as visualized in metapopulation theory (26)], if a species is expanding into areas that have only recently become available, or if regional population density is inadequate to support colonization of suitable areas. on the other hand, time lags associated with longevity of individuals established under previous conditions [''legacy'' effects in plant distributions (27)] or with breeding-area philopatry in birds may result in the occurrence of individuals in areas that no longer fall within their environmental niche space. thus, ecological niche models may be prone to both omission errors (leaving out of the niche space information from places that could be occupied) and commission errors (including in the niche space places that cannot sustain the species) (28).
Where should be Large population and Urbanisation Planned?
large population and urbanisation trends are projected in parts of africa and asia
In which Urban areas is considered as the nocturnal urban heat island upto five times larger than the median value of 1degC?
urban areas located in northern africa, the middle east, and western asia have nocturnal urban heat islands up to five times larger than the median value of 1degc sampled from all populated regions in experiment c1u
What is the average nocturnal heat of the global area?
the change in the global area averaged nocturnal heat island is a modest reduction of 6% +- 1
large population and urbanisation trends are projected in parts of africa and asia (figure 1, top) united nations [2007], which will require considerable growth in the urban land footprint in these areas. urban areas located in northern africa, the middle east, and western asia have nocturnal urban heat islands up to five times larger than the median value of 1degc sampled from all populated regions in experiment c1u (figure 1, bottom).the largest heat islands are found in sub - tropical arid climates where the diurnal temperature range is large. this results from a combination of high incident short wave radiation at the surface, and low soil moisture, resulting in large energy gain during the day, but low surface heat capacity and rapid cooling rates of the soil or vegetation surface at night, yielding larger nocturnal differences in urban and rural temperature. the change in the simulated nocturnal heat island in response to 2xco2 (c2u - c1u) is in excess of 30% in some locations (figure 2) such as along parts of the eastern seaboard of the u.s., south america, and south east asia. the change in the global area averaged nocturnal heat island is a modest reduction of 6% +- 1%. the simulated heat islands respond to climate change through those feedbacks, such as cloud or soil moisture, that influence important components of the surface energy balance. the impact on the absolute heat island in these simulations is generally of order a few tenths of a degree, compared to the radiatively forced warming of order 3degc, but it demonstrates that the magnitude of the urban heat island is not static under climate change.
Whose study has defined Abrupt Climate Change?
us national research council (nrc
What is the definition of abrupt clime change according to this study?
an abrupt climate change occurs when the climate system is forced to cross some threshold, triggering a transition to a new state at a rate determined by the climate system itself and faster than the cause. the cause may be chaotic and thus undetectably small
What impacts is the Type 1 definition not so helpful recognizing?
social and ecological impacts
the most considered attempt to define abrupt climate change has come from the us national research council (nrc) study 'abrupt climate change: inevitable surprises'. the formal definition adopted by this study was that technically, an abrupt climate change occurs when the climate system is forced to cross some threshold, triggering a transition to a new state at a rate determined by the climate system itself and faster than the cause. the cause may be chaotic and thus undetectably small. nrc (2002, p. 14) this follows the reasoning of rahmstorf (2001), which argues that 'abruptness' should be defined in relation to thresholds and nonlinear behaviour of the climate system rather than simply in terms of magnitude or rate of change. while this definition (let us call it type 1) may help focus attention on certain forms of behaviour in the physical system, it is perhaps not so helpful when viewing social and ecological impacts. elsewhere in the same nrc report, in the chapter on economic and ecological impacts, a rather different definition was adopted: from the point of view of societal and ecological impacts and adaptations, abrupt climate change can be viewed as a significant change in climate relative to the accustomed or background climate experienced by the economic or ecological system being subject to the change, having sufficient impacts to make adaptation difficult. nrc (2002, p. 121) this importantly recognizes the role of adaptation in social and ecological systems in determining what may be abrupt or significant climate change, but in fact the definition (let us call it type 2) is so broad that many of the standard climate scenarios
Explain climate negotiations ?
at the climate negotiations in warsaw, poland (cop19) in december 2013, there is a mandate to establish institutional arrangements to address loss and damage associated with the impacts of climate change5 (unfccc, 2012), including functions and modalities
How UNFCCC is contributed?
the work on loss and damage under the unfccc is envisioned to contribute to the formulation of the anticipated international climate agreement at cop21 (paris, december 2015
at the climate negotiations in warsaw, poland (cop19) in december 2013, there is a mandate to establish institutional arrangements to address loss and damage associated with the impacts of climate change5 (unfccc, 2012), including functions and modalities.6 the work on loss and damage under the unfccc is envisioned to contribute to the formulation of the anticipated international climate agreement at cop21 (paris, december 2015). the four pathways to loss and damage suggest that policies to address loss and damage must consider: * mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions (strong influence on all pathways to loss and damage). success in avoiding situations in which society faces loss and damage - particularly under pathway 4b - depends on appropriately ambitious mitigation decisions today. * policies geared towards addressing, restoring or otherwise making up for adaptation costs that are not regained are especially relevant for pathway 2. * policies geared toward increasing resilience (such as reducing exposure, addressing underlying vulnerabilities that affect the coping and adaptive capacity of affected people) are relevant for pathways 1, 3, and 4a. the research showed that many households surveyed employ a variety of approaches to get by, although many of these have longer-term erosive implications for livelihoods and well-being. if social vulnerabilities to climatic and other stressors are root causes of loss and damage, then improving social resilience provides some of the solutions. * finally, questions arise about what policies may be appropriate and needed to address situations where adaptation measures to particular kinds of climatic stressors are no longer possible (pathway 4b). in such areas, there are already limits to adaptation due to issues such as the scope of the biophysical impact or the degree to which a society can deal with the impact. policy approaches are needed that clearly set out the consequences of approaching and surpassing hard limits (at all levels). tools are needed to identify decision points and define options for decision pathways.
Dispersed flow A water body in what?
the ideal complete-mix regime
This representation is usually applied to?
well-mixed lakes and reservoirs
Impact of wastewater discharges?
to water bodies 93
dispersed flow a water body in the ideal complete-mix regime is characterised by having the same concentration at all points in the liquid mass. thus, the effluent concentration is equal at whatever point in the water body. this representation is usually applied to well-mixed lakes and reservoirs. this regime is also called cstr (completelystirred tank reactor). a predominantly linear water body, such as a river, can be characterised through the plug-flow regime. in the ideal plug flow there are no exchanges between the upstream and downstream sections. each section functions as a plug, in which the water quality is the same in all points and the community is adapted to the ecological conditions prevailing in each moment. along with the downstream movement of the plug, the various self-purification reactions take place. hydraulically, this model is similar to the case in which a tank with water, equal to the plug, remains the same period of time subjected to the same reactions and processes, therefore having the same water quality as that of the plug in the water body (see figure 3.5). the two characteristics represented above are for idealised situations. in reality, water bodies present a characteristic of dispersion of the pollutants, which is intermediate between the two extreme situations: total dispersion (completely mixing) and no dispersion (plug flow). therefore the water bodies or their reaches can be characterised by a dispersion coefficient. high dispersion coefficients are associated with water bodies approaching a completely mixing regime, whereas reduced coefficients are associated with water bodies approaching plug-flow conditions. the dispersed-flow regime is particularly relevant with rivers under estuarine influence or with very low flow velocities. impact of wastewater discharges to water bodies 93
what status are entitled to the same life expectancy and quality of life ?
the principle of equitymeansthatallpeoples,irrespectiveofrace,culture,religion, geographic position or economic status are entitled to the same life expectancy and quality of life
what are the  reasons for a lower quality of life
broadly speaking, the reasons for a lower quality of life are associated with environmental conditions, and if these improve, life quality is expected to rise accordingly
what do the  developing country require on a long term?
the developing country requires a stepwise approach and achieves compliance only on a long term
the principle of equitymeansthatallpeoples,irrespectiveofrace,culture,religion, geographic position or economic status are entitled to the same life expectancy and quality of life. broadly speaking, the reasons for a lower quality of life are associated with environmental conditions, and if these improve, life quality is expected to rise accordingly. on this basis, there is no justification for accepting different environmental guideline values between developed and developing countries. if guideline values (e.g. who guidelines) are treated as absolute values, than only developed countries are more likely to achieve them, and developing nations possibly will not be able to afford the required investments. however, if guideline values are treated as targets than hopefully all countries will eventually be able to achieve them, some on a short, some on a medium and others only on a long term. figure 3.22 illustrates this point, for three different countries. for all of them, the guideline values are the same. the very developed country has been already compliant, and presents a better water quality than actually required. the developed country requires only a small effort and achieves compliance in a short term. the developing country requires a stepwise approach and achieves compliance only on a long term. however, in the end all countries will hopefully be compliant with the guidelines. 160 to wastewater characteristics, treatment and disposal
How do we compute k?
o compute p we calculate sica, during each of the four seasons, from the annual sica and the seasonal differences in sica. we then project the population from an arbitrary initial vector until it converges to the equilibrium structure, and use that structure to compute k
Where does population growth maximize's and minimize's?
he population growth rate is maximized at intermediate values of sica close to 0, and declines at higher or lower values
In which case k declines more rapidly?
the range of positive growth is wide (white contours on fig. 5) and k declines from its maximum more rapidly for negative than for positive annual sica values
in a fixed, specified sea ice environment, the population will eventually converge to an equilibrium proportional structure p and (even though it is nonlinear) grow exponentially at a rate k given by the dominant eigenvalue of the projection matrix evaluated at the equilibrium structure, a  1/2  h d x p th to compute p we calculate sica, during each of the four seasons, from the annual sica and the seasonal differences in sica. we then project the population from an arbitrary initial vector until it converges to the equilibrium structure, and use that structure to compute k figure 5 shows k as a function of annual sica and of seasonal differences in sica. the population growth rate is maximized at intermediate values of sica close to 0, and declines at higher or lower values. for a fixed value of sica, the population growth rate increases (annual sica -0.8) or decreases (annual sica  0.3) with increasingly positive seasonal differences. the range of positive growth is wide (white contours on fig. 5) and k declines from its maximum more rapidly for negative than for positive annual sica values.
Expalin CERES-Maize model?
ceres-maize model as a tool for systematically assessing crop damage from increased excess soil moisture conditions under climate change
What are consider to describe an ensemble of weather and topography?
weather and topographic properties specific of one study site were used to describe an ensemble of weather and topography-- and the associated yields--that characterize a county. such approximations tend to generate larger climate sensitivity in modeled data compared to observed
Who supported this research?
this research was supported by environmental defense, and carried out by the climate impacts group, nasagoddard institute for space studies at columbia university. e. mills was supported by the us environmental protection agency. references
ceres-maize model as a tool for systematically assessing crop damage from increased excess soil moisture conditions under climate change. first, the small number of experimental data available limited our ability to test model performance at the plant level. second, our simulations, just as those performed for the us national assessment, assume that county-level crop production can be approximated, at least in the mean, by site-level simulation results. weather and topographic properties specific of one study site were used to describe an ensemble of weather and topography-- and the associated yields--that characterize a county. such approximations tend to generate larger climate sensitivity in modeled data compared to observed. we conclude that our simulated effects of excess soil moisture on crop yields may be overestimates when extended to the county level. third, because delayed planting due to wet soils also reduces crop yields, a mechanism for simulating delayed planting by a ''smart farmer'' needs to be implemented within our model, in order to improve the comparison between simulated and reported yields. finally, this study was not coupled to a regional economic model. our computations of economic cost due to increased extreme precipitation events under climate change may thus be high, as they assume no technological change or adaptation compared to present conditions. 5. conclusions our simulations show that it is possible to quantify the effects of excess soil moisture on crop production by modified dynamic crop models. furthermore, simulations with our own modified version of ceres-maize illustrate how exacerbated conditions of excess soil moisture under climate change, arising from an increased frequency of extreme precipitation events, may add significant negative pressure on maize yields, farm production levels and farmers in the us midwest. additional negative effects linked to extreme precipitation events, such as direct physical damage to crop plants from heavy rains and hail, were not included in this study nor in the us national assessment. despite the necessity of further model development, our results clearly indicate that the corresponding additional economic costs to crop production can be significant, given the considerable losses already incurred by farmers under the current climate regime. modeling improvements are thus needed to capture and accurately represent these effects in climate change impact assessment studies. ignoring such damages may lead to overestimates of the positive impacts of ''wet'' scenarios of climate change on rain-fed agriculture around the world. acknowledgements we wish to thank three anonymous reviewers whose comments helped to greatly improve this manuscript. this research was supported by environmental defense, and carried out by the climate impacts group, nasagoddard institute for space studies at columbia university. e. mills was supported by the us environmental protection agency. references
What year was the Olympics held in the UK?
a classic example is that of the carbon implications of the 2012 olympics
Where is the most energy profligate place in Britain?
the business heart of the city of london, with its shining, eternally light glass towers, is the single most energyprofligate place in britain
By what percentage is the new city district expected to rise by in the next three to five years?
the new city district has a power demand of over 1000 mw that is expected to rise by over 80% in the next three to five years
the uk government appears to have no convincing handle on the relationship between excessive energy demand and the scale of emission reductions needed to meet their statutory reductions target obligations. why else would they condone a new generation of coal-fired power stations? why else would they be interested in building new airport capacity? this gap between fantasy and reality is further exemplified by the uk government's inability to understand the implications of how buildings actually work in terms of energy consumption. if they are serious about even trying to honour international targets they need to understand the relationship between the wrong types of buildings and settlements and their ability to meet targets. a classic example is that of the carbon implications of the 2012 olympics. the business heart of the city of london, with its shining, eternally light glass towers, is the single most energyprofligate place in britain. the new city district has a power demand of over 1000 mw that is expected to rise by over 80% in the next three to five years. the docklands alone has a power demand of more free ebooks http://fast-file.blogspot.com
What has been implicated in this variation as these events peak in winter.
environmental temperature
Give an example of seasonal variations that  could also threaten the stability of HF.
incidence of respiratory infections
What can also induce myocardial ischemia
cold
seasonal variation in the incidence of acute myocardial infarction (ami) (1-3) and sudden death (4) is well recognized. environmental temperature has been implicated in this variation as these events peak in winter. some of the physiologic consequences of reduction in temperature, thought to be involved in increased coronary risk, might also be hazardous in heart failure (hf). skin cooling has been shown to increase systemic vascular resistance (5), heart rate (6), plasma norepinephrine concentration (7), circulating levels of vasoconstrictor peptides (8) and blood pressure (9). in keeping with this, blood pressure is higher in winter (10). cold can also induce myocardial ischemia (11). all of these effects could clearly lead to worsening of hf. other seasonal variations, such as in the incidence of respiratory infections, could also threaten the stability of hf. the aim of this study was to determine whether there is seasonal variation in hospitalizations and deaths due to hf and to examine possible contributors to such variability.
In Canada, what must increase to avoid an increase in unemployment?
as capital and labor become more productive over time, which has been typical in canada, aggregate demand must increase to avoid an increase in unemployment
Name on variable that determines consumption expenditures in the economy
population is also one of the variables that determines consumption expenditures in the economy
Give one importance of LowGrow
lowgrow keeps track of the overall fi scal position of all three levels of government combined (federal, provincial, and municipal) by calculating total revenues and expenditures (including those for poverty reduction) and estimating debt repayment based on the historical record
there is a second important link between aggregate demand and the production function. investment expenditures (net of depreciation) which are part of aggregate demand, add to the economy's stock of capital increasing its productive capacity. as capital and labor become more productive over time, which has been typical in canada, aggregate demand must increase to avoid an increase in unemployment. economic growth (i.e. increases in gdp) would seem to be needed to prevent unemployment rising as productive capacity increases. population is determined exogenously in lowgrow, which offers a choice of three projections from statistics canada. population is also one of the variables that determines consumption expenditures in the economy. the labor force is estimated in lowgrow as a function of gdp and population. lowgrow includes an exogenously determined rate of interest that remains unchanged throughout each simulation. a higher cost of borrowing discourages investment, which reduces aggregate demand. it also raises the cost to the government of servicing its debt. the price level is not included as a variable in lowgrow although the model warns of in fl ationary pressures when the rate of unemployment falls below 4% (i.e. effectively full employment in canada). lowgrow includes features that are particularly relevant for exploring a low, no and degrowth economy. lowgrow includes emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gasses, a carbon tax, a forestry sub-model, provision for redistributing incomes, and a measure of poverty using the un's human poverty index (i.e. hpi-2 for selected oecd countries). lowgrow allows additional funds to be spent on health care and on programs for reducing adult illiteracy (both included in hpi-2) and estimates their impacts on longevity and adult literacy using equations from the literature. implications of changes in the level of government expenditures can be simulated in lowgrow through a variety of fi scal policies including: an annual percentage change in government expenditure that can vary over time, and a balanced budget. lowgrow keeps track of the overall fi scal position of all three levels of government combined (federal, provincial, and municipal) by calculating total revenues and expenditures (including those for poverty reduction) and estimating debt repayment based on the historical record. as the level of government indebtedness declines the rates of taxes on personal incomes and pro fi ts in lowgrow are reduced endogenously, which is broadly consistent with government policy in canada. in lowgrow, as in the economy that it represents, economic growth is driven by: net investment which adds to productive assets, growth in the labor force, increases in productivity, an increase in the net trade balance, growth in government expenditures and growth in population. low, no and degrowth scenarios can be examined by reducing the rates of increase in each of these factors singly or in combination. 4. scenario 1: ' business as usual ' it is convenient to start analyzing low, no and degrowth scenarios by establishing a base case with no new policy interventions. this is the ' business as usual ' case illustrated in fig. 2
What is the expectation for the future?
in the future, we plan to assess this problem by constructing climate networks using a novel method based on statistical significance, i.e. by adding edges to the climate network depending on the significance level of the correlation measure with respect to reasonable null hypotheses
Which candidates can be identified as edges?
one could then identify candidates for nonlinear interrelationships as edges that have an associated significant mutual information and a pearson correlation that is not significant
this work also demonstrates, that our method of calculating mutual information for relatively short time series is reliable at least for the strongly linear interrelations detected by the pearson correlation coefficient. the global topological scale is of particular interest, since it opens novel perspectives for the understanding of climatological phenomena. for example, as applied to the climate networks discussed in this article, betweenness centrality allows to measure the importance of localized regions on the earth's surface for the transport of dynamical information within a climatological field in the long term mean further work is needed to establish, whether the observed deviations on the global topological scale could be due to nonlinear physical processes in the climate system, that are only detectable using mutual information. in the future, we plan to assess this problem by constructing climate networks using a novel method based on statistical significance, i.e. by adding edges to the climate network depending on the significance level of the correlation measure with respect to reasonable null hypotheses. one could then identify candidates for nonlinear interrelationships as edges that have an associated significant mutual information and a pearson correlation that is not significant.
What is the basis for the calculation of GHG reductions?
the santilli et al proposal simply mentions that the baseline for accounting for ghg reductions is "the average annual deforestation for the 1980's, measured with robust satellite imagery techniques
What is the need for deforestation rates?
it seems essential to use longer base periods (for example, fi ve years) to minimize both the impacts of inter-annual variation in deforestation rates and the diffi culties of remote sensing due to cloud cover
the santilli et al proposal simply mentions that the baseline for accounting for ghg reductions is "the average annual deforestation for the 1980's, measured with robust satellite imagery techniques". however, besides monitoring the area subject to deforestation (and possibly degradation), stock changes and non-co2 ghg emissions on these lands also need to be monitored. this must be done both for the base period and the commitment period (net-net accounting). what would be an appropriate base period for which adequate data are available? it seems essential to use longer base periods (for example, fi ve years) to minimize both the impacts of inter-annual variation in deforestation rates and the diffi culties of remote sensing due to cloud cover. a fi rst basis for methodologies of monitoring deforestation can be found in chapter 4.2.6 of the ipcc good practice guidance for land use, land-use change and forestry (schlamadinger et al 2003).
What impact does human interference have on biodiversity?
the major human impacts on biodiversity to date are probably through land use changes and habitat loss
Which gas increases during intensification?
intensification often leads to an increase in nitrogen supply
the major human impacts on biodiversity to date are probably through land use changes and habitat loss.49,50 also, a whole range of other global change drivers are important including biological invasions, pollution (e.g., n and s deposition) and overexploitation.1 land use change, often to expand agriculture, causes direct habitat loss, but also has other effects such as fragmentation of remaining habitat and increased agrochemical inputs into surrounding natural (or semi-natural) habitats.51,52changes to the management of land (e.g., grazing regime) also have large direct impacts on biodiversity.53intensification often leads to an increase in nitrogen supply, as a result of atmospheric deposition as well as direct fertilizer application. this leads to an increase in soil fertility and increased dominance of plants adapted to high-nutrient soils, which often out-compete other species.54
What would those engineering the hardware of a climate engineering system be asked to do?
if a decision is made to move ahead with climate engineering, those engineering the hardware of a climate engineering system seemingly would be asked to produce a system that balances the several costs of system implementation with the various benefits of achieving various distinct patterns of additional climate forcing
What would climate engineers be required to know?
this requires an understanding of how the climate system would respond to different kinds and patterns of climate forcing
How would you describe the state of Earth's near-surface enviornment?
the earth's near-surface environment is warming rapidly ipcc 2007 
we are now, or soon will be, confronting issues of whether, when and how to engineer a climate that is more to our liking. if a decision is made to move ahead with climate engineering, those engineering the hardware of a climate engineering system seemingly would be asked to produce a system that balances the several costs of system implementation with the various benefits of achieving various distinct patterns of additional climate forcing. this requires an understanding of how the climate system would respond to different kinds and patterns of climate forcing. here, we present results of idealized simulations using computer-based climate models as initial steps towards a broader analysis of how various changes in radiative forcing may be engineered to affect climate. the earth's near-surface environment is warming rapidly ipcc 2007 ). arctic sea ice is disappearing at rates greater than previously observed or predicted kerr 2007 and the southern part of the greenland ice sheet may be at risk of